# EURUSD....Euro



## MARKETWAVES

The Euro  has  this  pattern  intraday that apears to be firming up..  and as I  write this people in the trading world are watching the GDP report that is  about to come out tomorrow, Friday 7-29-05..

WHY WATCH GDP?  *THE  GDP REPORT  DOESNT  MATTER .......*


It's all  in  the  charts ..................


What are these charts saying ?  

Does it have to break out... for people to be interested in this  ?

Well, that's too bad......  What do I see? Look below........

SOME SERIOUS base bulilding is happening in the *EURO....*


*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK…* The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


........


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## excalibur

*Eurozone indicators show improvements*

Eurozone indicators show improvements

Friday, July 29 10:35:35


Both indicators of economic sentiment and business climate in the eurozone showed improvements in July, the European Commission said today.

The EC said its eurozone economic sentiment indicator for July rose to 97.3 from 96.3 in June.

The industrial confidence component of the indicator improved to minus 8 from minus 10, while consumer confidence was unchanged at minus 15. Economists had forecast minus 9 for the industrial confidence indicator and minus 15 for consumer confidence.

The services sector posted a rise to 11 from 9, and construction improved to minus 13 from minus 14, while the retail trade worsened to minus 10 from minus 9.

The commission said the rise in the overall economic sentiment indicator was due mainly to the easing of the euro, the stabilisation of oil prices, and the beginnings of an upturn in global growth.

Meanwhile, eurozone business climate indicator improved to minus 0.07 in July from minus 0.27 in June, the European Commission said.

The commission said the improvement was reflected in almost all the indicator's underlying components, particularly for production in recent months.

"Confidence among managers increased significantly also due to improved total order books and export order books," it said.


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## RichKid

*Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )*

Nice charts again MW, I tend to have more confidence in rounding bottoms than other turns, this one is not the perfect example but it's close enough- woe for the USD!!


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )*

RICHKID.....

 ITS   NOT  the rounding  bottom  that  is  of  intrest .....  Its  the  multiple  resistance lines  that  are  highlighted in  yellow...   it  has  already  pulled  back  4  times  an  has  created  a  neckline .    The  logic ,  is if  prices  start moving in that  direction  again ,,,  can it  be  strong  enough  to  break  through ....  the  breaking  of  a resistance  line is  more  important in  a  bullish  set-up  than  what  kind  of  bottom  formation  is  being  formed ....


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )*

EURO  ....

   THE    results  are  in  ......

Serious  Base  Building  that  is paying  off .....  


 It's  all  in  the  chats ...          FORGET  THE  NEWS


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## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )*

At an interesting stage.. EURUSD..


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

I don't track a wave-count on EUR/USD, but the last few weeks have suggested the following to me...


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## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I don't track a wave-count on EUR/USD, but the last few weeks have suggested the following to me...




Yes, thats how i see it too, am also looking at the larger picture, is this the 5 leg A??  Or maybe an extremely bukkish short ABC that has only retraced 23%?..


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## wavepicker

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Yes, thats how i see it too, am also looking at the larger picture, is this the 5 leg A??  Or maybe an extremely bukkish short ABC that has only retraced 23%?..





Yeah Kauri, that's an interesting point. 
Look at the weekly chart below of the EURUSD. Off the peak in Dec 2004 we appear to have 5 waves down followed by 5 waves up. Which is the impulse??? Answer: It can be either one, but it can't be both. If you view the internal wave subdivisions of what appears to be a 5 wave decline in 2005 in lower timeframes such as daily or 8Hr timeframe bars, then there is no way it counts as an impulse but rather a complex correction. The same can almost be said about the the leg up. It could be that both these legs are corrective.

This ambiguity came up in a conversation with Radge some weeks ago, with regard to what appeared to be a 5 wave structure in Gold. My point here is that you must never assume 5 waves, but rather to use as many means as possible to quantify your wave counts. Over the years I have seen patterns that appeared to be 5 waves against a larger trend. Because I assume 5 waves then there would have to be some follow through after an abc against those 5 waves. But what would happen instead was that the market would move in the opposite direction once those 5 waves where finished and not only fully retrace then but exceed the origin. So What appears to be 5 waves has to be quantified  by other means or by price levels, fibonacci expansions/ratios or time factors or all of these, that may help validate/invaidate a probable scenario.

Cheers


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

i expect that eurusd is going to close above 1.3000 , it seems that the correction is over, the weekly bar should not close below 1.2890 , in the weekly chart i attached you can see that eur corrected to test the broken traingle , everything is not clear but as we have this weeks important data , the market already  expected that the rate won`t be changed 5.25, and the unemployment rate will be the same but i expect that data of the changing in the nonfarm payrolls will be a little less than 148 k which its the number that was expected by the market.   i see that eurusd is going north and i hope that the support 1.2890 - 1.2870 won`t be taken.
i attach the weekly chart and also the cot chart and there you can see that the commercials ( the dogs ) have increased their positions in long and so did the large traders and you can see the open intrest rised to 169 ,  i hope this two weeks eurusd break up 1.3000 so things will be more clear.


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

good mornin aussies
eurusd broke up the down trendline in the 4h chart.

eur is going to test 1.3050 level, where i gonna cash all my positions.
1.3185 is very important resistance , whenever eurusd reach it i will sell for 50 pips gain, i still see the eurusd is going north.


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> i expect that eurusd is going to close above 1.3000 , it seems that the correction is over, the weekly bar should not close below 1.2890 , in the weekly chart i attached you can see that eur corrected to test the broken traingle , everything is not clear but as we have this weeks important data , the market already  expected that the rate won`t be changed 5.25, and the unemployment rate will be the same but i expect that data of the changing in the nonfarm payrolls will be a little less than 148 k which its the number that was expected by the market.   i see that eurusd is going north and i hope that the support 1.2890 - 1.2870 won`t be taken.
> i attach the weekly chart and also the cot chart and there you can see that the commercials ( the dogs ) have increased their positions in long and so did the large traders and you can see the open intrest rised to 169 ,  i hope this two weeks eurusd break up 1.3000 so things will be more clear.




the data is out of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its less than expected only 111k , also the data of unemployment rate is rised to 4.6% 

 i have cashed all my positions and will be waiting for the next week


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

have  a nice weekend everybody


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Hi Naif,

Thanks!  A great weekend to you too.

I'm really digging your posts on the USDEUR cross-rate.  Keep going!
The ASX Gorilla.


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

back again before i go to bed

howdy the asx gorilla? 
thx for ur post..

the eurusd is now 1.2951 and i think its a big game from wallstreet, they want to make market think that eurusd is going down so they can hit alot of stop losses and then they make new buy orders, well i already placed a new order to buy from 1.2947 + spread 3 pips 1.2950 ..
the stop loss is 1.2920, and the 1st target is 1.3150 ... 

i just wanted to share you ppl my own analysis , i dont recommend anyone to buy or sell and i`m just telling you my orders so its up to you if you want to use it or not.


again ppl have a nice weekend


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> back again before i go to bed
> 
> howdy the asx gorilla?
> thx for ur post..
> 
> the eurusd is now 1.2951 and i think its a big game from wallstreet, they want to make market think that eurusd is going down so they can hit alot of stop losses and then they make new buy orders, well i already placed a new order to buy from 1.2947 + spread 3 pips 1.2950 ..
> the stop loss is 1.2920, and the 1st target is 1.3150 ...
> 
> i just wanted to share you ppl my own analysis , i dont recommend anyone to buy or sell and i`m just telling you my orders so its up to you if you want to use it or not.
> 
> 
> again ppl have a nice weekend





the price didnt reach 1.2947 and the low was 1.2950..
the eurusd closed at 1.2960..


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

again with the cot charts

we see that the large spec has increased their positions while the commercial trdaers didnt increase, and the open intrest rised 174 ..
well .. i think it will be wise to buy eurusd, but we should watch 1.3185 levels , it will be very important


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

hello ppl ...
we are starting a  new week and today we got important data.
we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...

i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...

again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..

good luck


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## wavepicker

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> hello ppl ...
> we are starting a  new week and today we got important data.
> we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
> i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...
> 
> i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
> i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...
> 
> again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..
> 
> good luck




Hi Naif, agree with your comments. I am short the USDJPY for 1 week now but plan to close out trade in the next few days when this correction will end IMO.  I think the EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped and the larger trend is down. We should be using the rallies to position for short positions

Cheers


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hi Naif, agree with your comments. I am short the USDJPY for 1 week now but plan to close out trade in the next few days when this correction will end IMO.  I think the EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped and the larger trend is down. We should be using the rallies to position for short positions
> 
> Cheers



hello wavepicker, I do agree that its expected that eurusd is going down to 1.27 levels, but i expect that eurusd should go up to 1.3150 levels where the commercial will close their longs and start to short the eurusd for 1.27.
about the gbpusd i expect that soon the gbpusd will go 2.000 levels , because its said that the inflation in uk is growing so they will hike the intrest rates... 

cheers


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> hello ppl ...
> we are starting a  new week and today we got important data.
> we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
> i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...
> 
> i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
> i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...
> 
> again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..
> 
> good luck



i moved my sl to 2915 .
the price now is 2922

i still expect that the eurusd will reverse... but this time i won`t change the sl, becuz if it reaches to 2915, that means its going to 2890 and this is a very strong support and many times tried to break it down but couldn`t, and i think that if 2915 was taken, then 2890 will be broke and will see eurusd nex week around 2750

lets watch..

good luck


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> i moved my sl to 2915 .
> the price now is 2922
> 
> i still expect that the eurusd will reverse... but this time i won`t change the sl, becuz if it reaches to 2915, that means its going to 2890 and this is a very strong support and many times tried to break it down but couldn`t, and i think that if 2915 was taken, then 2890 will be broke and will see eurusd nex week around 2750
> 
> lets watch..
> 
> good luck





it hitted my sl with loss 30 pips

we`ll see if the eurusd will close today below 2915 level or will break 2890  after the ism data.

good luck


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

If it breaks 2890 one might expect to see it fall to 2830ish...which will coincide with the 200-day MA, a medium term up trend line and a 61.8% retracement of a previous significant range.

I really enjoy this thread Naif, keep going!


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## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

The sloping support/resistance line is proving to be quite strong..


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

technically, the eurusd is going to 1.2825, as you see from the flag which means that eurusd is going to break it down and we need a close below 1.2890 levels..
but fundamentally, i see that eurusd should go to 1.3120, then 1.3185

its a lil complicated


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Well, if you apply EW guideline of alternation...then Wave 2 of the impulse move down was a 3 wave formation...Wave 4 (which we're currently in) could therefore be a 5 wave formation...which suggests that your up to 1.31x scenario is more likely...THEN the down to 1.2825.

Lets see


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

hey everyone..
why is this forum a sleep?? 

anyway , the rallies from 1.2912 to 1.3025  for eurusd with no corrections , i think its time now to correct to  1.2955 level, so it will be a bottom and the bulls will start there to push the eurusd to 1.3050 and break it up..

this 4h chart


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

what do you think?


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## bvbfan

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Euro move foretold by the declining bond yields?
5 year

10 year


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> The sloping support/resistance line is proving to be quite strong..




In your count the wave 4 overlaps wave 1.  Are you strict about this in your counting, or do you convert to say line charts based on a daily close to try and filter out noise and price extremities.

The ASX Gorilla.


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## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> In your count the wave 4 overlaps wave 1. Are you strict about this in your counting, or do you convert to say line charts based on a daily close to try and filter out noise and price extremities.
> 
> The ASX Gorilla.




   Hi ASC G..
                 With shares I stick strictly to the overlapping rules, but with FX I allow an overlap so long as the closes don't overlap. Not very scientific I know, but I find that works best with the data I have. 
               Cheers
                       Kauri


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

eurusd broke up the downtrend line after  Trichet speech, i will wait for 1.3010 level to buy with stop loss 35 pips, and the first target 1.3050, then 1.3120

good luck


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> eurusd broke up the downtrend line after  Trichet speech, i will wait for 1.3010 level to buy with stop loss 35 pips, and the first target 1.3050, then 1.3120
> 
> good luck




Nice trade so far Naif.  Well done.


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

the low is 2983 ..

i am still holding my longs and eurusd need to close above the downtrend lind to say that the direction is north.
moved my sl to 2960 and my targets are not changed

the chart


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

eurusd still respect the broken trendline.. i can say that 80% we will see 1.31 next week


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

after today close,  i expect that eurusd will open next week above 1.3010 and maybe higher than 3010... we will have a good resistance around 3040 level and then 3120, and then the strog resistance 3180..

i`m sorry guys, i might not be able next week to analyze eurusd.

enjoy ur weekend guys 

good luck


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

in short and hurry..

the data of the cot tell me that next week we will see a strong rise for the eurusd..

eurusd now is 1.3022


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> in short and hurry..
> 
> the data of the cot tell me that next week we will see a strong rise for the eurusd..
> 
> eurusd now is 1.3022




back again
missed this forum...
ok the last week was the high 3172.. 
now eurusd is 3182..
the 4h bar closed above 3173 which i think its important resistance, 1st it closed above the downline trend in the 4h bar, and closed above 61.8 fibonacci in the weekly chart from 1.3364 to 1.2865

we have now a good resistance which its 1.3215 level and it gonna face the upline trend for the ascending channel , and then the resistance 1.3275..

i will post soon with charts and analysing cot data


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

back again .. 

in the 6`th of Feb 2007 the intrest rate rised from 174 to 182 and the commercial traders increased their positions from 34 to 51 and the bullish rised from 23% to 31% and the large speculators decreased their positions from 85 to 74 ...
then in the 13`th of feb , intrest rate rised to 187 , but the commercials decreased from 51 to only 26 so the bullish is 17% .. 
but the large speculators increased their positions to 105 .. 

well what i expect that the commercials want the eurusd go higher so they can close their positions and go short from new highs...

what gonna happen this week is that we will see rise for the eurusd and and the coming week will not be that clear and maybe we will not see a clear direction for eurusd but starting from march we will see a clear downtrend for eurusd to 1.3000 level 1st and then will see what gonna happen..

some ppl told me that its illegal to tell u my orders or where to go long or short...
anyway if its legal hope u gonna tell me

again i`m sorry if my explaining was bad cuz i`m really a bad teacher  

again i wanna see that the purpose of my analysing is not to advice you people to buy or sell, its just i think that its a good way to learn the methods that i use to make my trades..


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

i see a great chance to gain 150 pips in eurousd..
a very good support in the daily plus a good support in the rsi 14 days
buy 1.3065  and stop 50 pips and the target 1.3205

best wishes


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> i see a great chance to gain 150 pips in eurousd..
> a very good support in the daily plus a good support in the rsi 14 days
> buy 1.3065  and stop 50 pips and the target 1.3205
> 
> best wishes




Naif, you're back.

I see what you describe and concur...long long long long


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*




			
				Naif said:
			
		

> some ppl told me that its illegal to tell u my orders or where to go long or short...
> anyway if its legal hope u gonna tell me..




still waitin for the answer


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> some ppl told me that its illegal to tell u my orders or where to go long or short...
> anyway if its legal hope u gonna tell me




People are idiots...next thing you know they'll ban sugar.


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Naif, you're back.
> 
> I see what you describe and concur...long long long long




how u doin man ?
do u agree with me technically or fundementally??
hope to see your opinion 


as i have explained that i expect to see next week eurusd reach 3215  and i still think that we will see the eurusd fall to 3000 level.. anyway i still need the cot data for this week so i can see how the commercials are moving, i expect that they will increase just a few long positions.

good luck


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

what  i meant that eurusd fall to 3000 is just after the expected raise , i expect to see eurusd 3215 and then maybe to 3275 and then start falling


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> do u agree with me technically or fundementally??




Both.

Do you expect to see 1.3000 AFTER 1.3215 or BEFORE?

I think it may hold up around 1.3065 as you say, or 1.3030, where a couple of 38.2% and 50% fibb retracements co-incide and a bit of historic support/resistance.


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

i expect to see 3000 after 3215 and maybe 3275


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

the low for last week was 3080 ..
and eurusd closed this week above 3164...
the next weeks will be really hard for the dollar and i expect to see the dollar fall against all currencies specially the eur, chf, and jpy..
but after the rise will see 3000 again, i`m sure we will see alot of people say that eursd is going to 3450 and maybe 3550 and alot will buy and make their stop loss below 1.3100 and i think thats what the commercals and large speculators want so they will reverse the market and alot of stop losses will be taken out..
from my experince .. as i have said in the last week we will not see 3000 before we see 3215 and 3275 levels , and after the close i belive that we will see 3275 levels for sure and it will be  a very good chance to short.. 
last week my order was to buy from 3065 but the low was 3080 .. now my orders are to buy from 3015 , and then buy again from 3065 and my sl will be 3000 .. the targets 3205, and 3260  and i might buy from 3145 i`m still not sure about this point ...

alot of analysits say that the weekly close for the eurusd is negative because it didn`t close above 3173 and this point they think its important because its 61.8% fibonacci in the weekly chart from 1.3364 to 1.2865 and also its the downtrend line in the weekly chart...

but technical analysis is not everything thats what i have learnt from the past and you know the history repeat itself..

hope to hear ur opinions traders


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> the low for last week was 3080 ..
> and eurusd closed this week above 3164...
> the next weeks will be really hard for the dollar and i expect to see the dollar fall against all currencies specially the eur, chf, and jpy..
> but after the rise will see 3000 again, i`m sure we will see alot of people say that eursd is going to 3450 and maybe 3550 and alot will buy and make their stop loss below 1.3100 and i think thats what the commercals and large speculators want so they will reverse the market and alot of stop losses will be taken out..
> from my experince .. as i have said in the last week we will not see 3000 before we see 3215 and 3275 levels  , and after the close i belive that we will see 3275 levels for sure and it will be  a very good chance to short..
> last week my order was to buy from 3065 but the low was 3080 .. now my orders are to buy from 3015 , and then buy again from 3065 and my sl will be 3000 .. the targets 3205, and 3260  and i might buy from 3145 i`m still not sure about this point ...
> 
> alot of analysits say that the weekly close for the eurusd is negative because it didn`t close above 3173 and this point they think its important because its 61.8% fibonacci in the weekly chart from 1.3364 to 1.2865 and also its the downtrend line in the weekly chart...
> 
> but technical analysis is not everything thats what i have learnt from the past and you know the history repeat itself..
> 
> hope to hear ur opinions traders





back again
this week untill now the high for eurusd is 3229 .. my orders to buy from 3145 , 3110, and 3065 but the price didn`t hit my orders and what i did the i bought from 3173 after the daily close above this important resistance.. 

moved my sl now to 3173 and cashed 1/2 of my positions and the 2`nd half will cash it from 3260.. and i will short from 3270 ..

this week when the new data for cot come out, i think that the speculators will decrease their long positions and the open intrest will be decreased..

lets see what gonna happen

cheers


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

back again.. the high was 3258 so it didnt hit my 2nd target @3260  and the 1h bar couldnt close above 3250 , so i cashed my 2nd 1/2 at 3240..

i`m still not sure but i think this is gonna be the high for this week, and eurusd should close above 3170 this week to see next week 3270 - 3295 which i expect to be the high of march and i will start to rally my shorts to 3000 levels.. of course there is a possibilities that eurusd go above 3300 but it should not go above 3330 .. and i will short from 3270 and will short again from 3320 if it reachs it...  this week when the data of cot come out, i expect to see the large speculators to decrease their longs positions..

good luck everyone


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

changed my plan.
after the new data of the cot , i will wait to buy from bottoms maybe 3175 if its possible and the 1st target 3275 , 2nd target 3320 , and i will short from 3320 and will short again from 3365..  the open intrest rised to 202, and the large speculators increased their long positions from 105 to 117..


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

sorry guys, it seems just like if i were drunk... i saw the cot data and was shocked becuz the large specu`s increased but actually its not the new data because today is thursday but i dont know how did i see the date 02/27/07 ..  
i hope that the moderator will delete it..

i`m sorry again just forget the last post, what i`m doin now is i have bought from 3200 and my target will be only 3265 , and will go short from 3270 , and again from 3320 , and again from  3365 but i expect that eurusd will fall from 3270 levels .. 

sorry again.. and i`ll back soon


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## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

it seems that they want a weaker dollar...
large speculators ant the commercials increased their long positions, and the open intresr rised to 221......
now i can say long and only long...
the plan now is to buy bottoms and the 1st target 1.3285 2`nd target 1.3315 and watch the down trend line , any break will take eurusd to 1.3355


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## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

L Plate E/W weekly    I think I'll stand back and see what develops.


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> it seems that they want a weaker dollar...
> large speculators ant the commercials increased their long positions, and the open intresr rised to 221......
> now i can say long and only long...
> the plan now is to buy bottoms and the 1st target 1.3285 2`nd target 1.3315 and watch the down trend line , any break will take eurusd to 1.3355




now i think its the best price to buy.. eurusd 1.3138...
eurusd has tested the broken down-trend line...

the rally will start from here to test the high of the last week 1.3258

good luck everyone


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

untill now eurusd didnt go below 1.3070 .. i have anouther order to buy from 1.3060 ...  the target 1.3280


----------



## money tree

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

trendline support 1.29

thats where Im loading up for a run to 1.36


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

money tree..
i think that eurusd should not break down 3050 level..
the open intrest is still rising, the large speculators still increasing their long positions rapidly.. and thats why the eurusd couldn`t close below 3080 till now.. i think this level 3080 - 3050 is protected and supported.. and in this two weeks we will see 3280 - 3320 and maybe then 3360..


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> trendline support 1.29
> 
> thats where Im loading up for a run to 1.36




i attach the chart to let u see how i see the eurusd future in this week with the number of commercial long positions and why i think that eurusd should go up before fallin because the commercials want to close their positions....
the 1st target is 3189 level, and then 3250 levels..

what do u think?


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

eurusd hitted the target.. the high untill now 3184 .. and eurusd need a close for the 4h bar to continue climbing to 3250 level...


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				Naif said:
			
		

> money tree..
> i think that eurusd should not break down 3050 level..
> the open intrest is still rising, the large speculators still increasing their long positions rapidly.. and thats why the eurusd couldn`t close below 3080 till now.. i think this level 3080 - 3050 is protected and supported.. and in this two weeks we will see 3280 - 3320 and maybe then 3360..




I went short eurusd 1.3310 and my sl at 3400 ...  i will short again from 3360 if it reach it but i dont think so..

now money tree i can say and expect that eurusd will go down and break  3050 .. fundementally the usd willl get stronger and they will not decrease the intrest rate this year as it was expected because that data showed that inflation might rise ...
technically eurusd is very near from a strong resitance and there is a strong divergence in the daily chart for the momentum and macd..
the cot data showed that the commercials decreased 1/2 of their long positions and now they just wanna some stops to be taken out and then they take the price to 1.3000 level..

good luck everyone


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

I went short about 2 weeks ago at 1.3144

Despite the recent rise to above 1.33, I still think short to mid term we will see levels below 1.28 and even lower. In political and economic crises the dollar so far has always been profiting. And I don't think it will be different this time.  Imagine a victory of the socialists in France- which is quite possible - and another war in the middle east - which is also very likely after Israels National Security Council advised that travellers should leave about 40 countries immediately ( see Bob Moriarty's artcile on www.321gold.com : http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/comment/20070311.html 
-
Long term I believe the dollar is doomed, but for the forseeable future, I reckon with an unexpected raise of the dollar, which will surprise quite a few.


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



			
				DonAqua said:
			
		

> I went short about 2 weeks ago at 1.3144
> 
> Despite the recent rise to above 1.33, I still think short to mid term we will see levels below 1.28 and even lower. In political and economic crises the dollar so far has always been profiting. And I don't think it will be different this time.  Imagine a victory of the socialists in France- which is quite possible - and another war in the middle east - which is also very likely after Israels National Security Council advised that travellers should leave about 40 countries immediately ( see Bob Moriarty's artcile on www.321gold.com : http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/comment/20070311.html
> -
> Long term I believe the dollar is doomed, but for the forseeable future, I reckon with an unexpected raise of the dollar, which will surprise quite a few.





i totally agree with you..   ..
bravo DonAqua


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Small bullish flag looks to be in the early stages, I won't be trading it though as my basic E/W indicates that a W v high is possible soon, also the 10 year high is very close.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> Small bullish flag looks to be in the early stages, I won't be trading it though as my basic E/W indicates that a W v high is possible soon, also the 10 year high is very close.




  Now looking for a W 2....


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

I'll stick my head out ...  
From now on the Dollar will raise against the Euro. It will reach pari as a minimum. How long that will take? Hmmm  .. a few months, maybe a couple of months more. Let's see.


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Pretty silent here. No one objecting that the dollar is raising?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Euro looks like a good place to turn up from W2 on the dailies but on the 4Hr charts where I dwell it looks a bit like my dogs breakfast!!!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> Euro looks like a good place to turn up from W2 on the dailies but on the 4Hr charts where I dwell it looks a bit like my dogs breakfast!!!




 As it turned out the dogs breakfast would have been quite appetising.   Missed out on the latest minor move as well as it didn't retrace far enough for me into the W2..    .  Next time... maybe..


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Disregarding the technical aspect: The recent decline of the dollar was mainly due to Hedgefonds selling heaps of greenbacks. But also the fear of a  US housing crisis is / was cooking, caused by comments from Standard & Poor. There's naturally also the strength of the intern European market versus the US market. 

So what's next? 1.40 for the Euro before we really see a recovering of the Dollar?
A nice couple Euro/USD --> :alcohol:


----------



## dutchie

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Anyone know where I can get a chart of AUS-EUR?

Where is best place to convert $aus to eur for travel purposes?

Cheers

Dutchie


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



dutchie said:


> Anyone know where I can get a chart of AUS-EUR?
> 
> Where is best place to convert $aus to eur for travel purposes?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Dutchie




I use CMCMarkets for currency trading and their charts. 

Free charts you can get from www.xe.com for example. XE has also a good currency conversion tool.


----------



## dutchie

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

DonAqua

Thanks for the info and link.

Cheers Dutchie


----------



## rederob

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



DonAqua said:


> So what's next? 1.40 for the Euro before we really see a recovering of the Dollar?



Any greenback recovery will be short term.
Its decline against the euro has years to run.
The past week or two have shown the power of "debt".
The US is awash with debt.
Although I am not yet bearish on the DOW, that could soon change.  It turns out that the web of debt continues to be spun, and may capture more and more who, cocooned in the apparent safety of their home, have mortgaged their rights away.


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



rederob said:


> Any greenback recovery will be short term.
> Its decline against the euro has years to run.
> The past week or two have shown the power of "debt".
> The US is awash with debt.
> Although I am not yet bearish on the DOW, that could soon change.  It turns out that the web of debt continues to be spun, and may capture more and more who, cocooned in the apparent safety of their home, have mortgaged their rights away.




The decline of the Dollar may take years, maybe ending in a sudden collapse. I don't know. I might be wrong. Short to mid-term however I reckon with a rise of the dollar. The empire may live longer than some might expect. Again, I might be wrong. It's not in the interest of China and other major dollar holders to hold an ever increasing amount of dollars with less and less value. The empire itself may try to stem the tide. The dollar is still the world reserve currency. It's decline will affect everyone. So what I think is, there will be political moves and politically inspired monetary moves to save the privilege, speak: power, of the dollar and thus that of the empire. 

Interesting months / years ahead indeed.

Regarding the Euro: The official numbers are also manipulated by Governments in Europe as it is done in the US.  The official inflation rate is low, but when checking the Euro money supply, it suggests that the real inflation rate is somewhere between 10 and 12 % .    Hmmm .. what are the US figures?

Regarding debt of European countries: That's a huge figure too and an ever increasing number. Germany alone plans for 2007 with a need for 33 billion Euros "new" debt. Germany's debt raises currently 1056 Euros per second, every day, every week, every month...  Tendency: raising! With all the debt and new debt, they still don't have enough. They are raising taxes, too.  
	

		
			
		

		
	




Governments are to a large part incompetent. 

What we may see is a race on devaluation of currencies all over the world. One day the whole thing will break. But till then, a lot of things can happen.

Have some gold and silver in case the hell brakes loose someday. 

Germany's running debt clock, you may find here :
http://www.miprox.de/index.html


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

All the planets haven't quite lined up yet, but am looking at a possible short...
 Cheers
.....Kauri


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Hi Kauri,

Euro is setting up for a potential swing trade to the shortside for me too- We have a nice looking harmonic pattern on the hourly. Will now be dropping the timeframe down and start looking for a decent lower high to get short from


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



professor_frink said:


> Hi Kauri,
> 
> Euro is setting up for a potential swing trade to the shortside for me too- We have a nice looking harmonic pattern on the hourly. Will now be dropping the timeframe down and start looking for a decent lower high to get short from




 Hi Prof,
          Looks like the planets may be lining up... now for a swing low to set up on...
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

I think I have tempted fate on this one but hey u only live once!

trend on the euro looks very decent to me a nice big continuation pattern in the works that may break out with out another touch of the trend line or it may touch.

i have taken long two mini's on it, I am speculating with the strengh in gold and it usd/jpy that the euro/usd may break out of this range and push higher the next test if it dose is where it makes it's next higher low(if it does) entry at 13654

good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Trade_It said:


> I think I have tempted fate on this one but hey u only live once!
> 
> trend on the euro looks very decent to me a nice big continuation pattern in the works that may break out with out another touch of the trend line or it may touch.
> 
> i have taken long two mini's on it, I am speculating with the strengh in gold and it usd/jpy that the euro/usd may break out of this range and push higher the next test if it dose is where it makes it's next higher low(if it does) entry at 13654
> 
> good trading




A lot of pain last night! after the FED treasurer made his comments, It broke out hard in my favor and came back down twice as fast! Opened new longs when it looked to have bottomed but it slipped again after I went to sleep!

Lots of paper profits made and lost with a little interest!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Looking for a swing-low for a possible quick short down into a minor *W2.*
         Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> Looking for a swing-low for a possible quick short down into a minor *W2.*
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  Well we got our swing-low... now to see if she goes on with it from here...  
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> Well we got our swing-low... now to see if she goes on with it from here...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Hi Kauri,

did u get in on it?

I was stopped on a long mid afternoon. but early this evening when i saw the new 4 hour bar as a green one convinced me to have another shot. Took profits now was fast and sweet!


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

eurusd now is 1.3881 and the high till now is 1.3929 ....
eurusd is getting ready for a new rally to 1.4000  and all the market is expecting that fed will cut intrest rates .25 or .50...
long is a good idea from support.. right now i am waiting to buy from 1.3860 and the stop loss is 25pips only ...
i usually trade with stop loss and always try to make my ratio 1:3


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Naif said:


> eurusd now is 1.3881 and the high till now is 1.3929 ....
> eurusd is getting ready for a new rally to 1.4000  and all the market is expecting that fed will cut intrest rates .25 or .50...
> long is a good idea from support.. right now i am waiting to buy from 1.3860 and the stop loss is 25pips only ...
> i usually trade with stop loss and always try to make my ratio 1:3




i have cancelled the order, as we see in the hourly chart, a new decsending channel and i think its going to test 1.3770


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Naif said:


> i have cancelled the order, as we see in the hourly chart, a new decsending channel and i think its going to test 1.3770




Naif,

I am also waiting on the EURO and AUD/USD

They are in standard retraces in my opinion. I still think there is another break out on the cards as long as the current situation continues.

Some big data coming out tonight as well.


----------



## x2rider

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Hi folks
I am also trading the euro at the moment and seems to have found a bit of support at 1.364. I have just added to my position with the lookout for a double top tonight with the chance for a quick short. 
I have been building the position for a while so this latest pull back is nothing to get to alarmed about just a good place to buy a little more.  
I don't think 1.40 will be a stop for it either. I have a target of 1.42.

 Cheers martin


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Trade_It said:


> Naif,
> 
> I am also waiting on the EURO and AUD/USD
> 
> They are in standard retraces in my opinion. I still think there is another break out on the cards as long as the current situation continues.
> 
> Some big data coming out tonight as well.




Hi Trade_it ,

about the aud/usd i prefer to watch it now, cuz i think the picture is still not clear for me if its going up or down..
the trend of EURUSD  is up and because the market expected that the fed will cut the intrest rates .50 or .25 the eurusd this week records new high and in my opinion today the eurusd will break down 1.3860 and go to test 1.3773 before it continues, eurusd must correct before the rally to 1.3990..
and its expected that todays usa data will improve..
check this report
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyf...S_Dollar_Hits_Fresh_Record_1189716594948.html

good luck


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



x2rider said:


> Hi folks
> I am also trading the euro at the moment and seems to have found a bit of support at 1.364. I have just added to my position with the lookout for a double top tonight with the chance for a quick short.
> I have been building the position for a while so this latest pull back is nothing to get to alarmed about just a good place to buy a little more.
> I don't think 1.40 will be a stop for it either. I have a target of 1.42.
> 
> Cheers martin




hi x2ruder..
i do agree with u that the trend is up.. but u said that eurusd found a bit of support at 1.364 , do u mean 1.3864? because the stops right now are below 1.3860 and the break of this support means that eurusd is going to test 1.3773 before it continiues .. but if you mean 1.3640 , then i would say that 1.3678 is very important support and the break of this support means that the trend for the short term will be down...

cheers


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Belgian FinMin said that Strong Euro Hurts Exports , 
is that a signal that today eurusd will break down 1.3860 ?? if the usa data improves then that wud help alot...

lets see


----------



## Naif

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

and EuroGroup"s Junker  said I Was More Concerned About Weak Euro ...


----------



## x2rider

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

hi Naif
 Smaller time periods I think . I am looking a bit more short term at the moment and did mean 1.3864. It has bounced from this point a few times in the last couple of days and still looks to be climbing from this support again . 

 I have different types of trades going on the same currency some longer term and some just short . But as long as we are all making some money then it's all good

 Cheers martin


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

And just to be completely contrarian I am looking for an opportunity to go short...   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> And just to be completely contrarian I am looking for an opportunity to go short...
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Me, too. Contrarian, I mean. Some analyst say Euro will go to 1.45 within a few weeks. For me, there's too much pessimism with the Dollar for the moment with all type of folks. If it would be the stockmarket, then that would normally be an indication for a turnaround coming soon. But who knows.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



DonAqua said:


> Me, too. Contrarian, I mean. Some analyst say Euro will go to 1.45 within a few weeks. For me, there's too much pessimism with the Dollar for the moment with all type of folks. If it would be the stockmarket, then that would normally be an indication for a turnaround coming soon. But who knows.




  Hi Don,
           Not sure if my W4 has yet to complete but am starting to get that bullish feeling again..   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> Hi Don,
> Not sure if my W4 has yet to complete but am starting to get that bullish feeling again..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Hi Kauri, 

agree about the bullish feeling on this pair

I Have taken a long on the eur/usd. seeing the latest minor move starting that is breaching the downward resistance.

I have a feeling it may pullback a little i have the fib points in, on a higher low being made around those levels i will look to add to this trade.

see chart


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Kauri said:


> Hi Don,
> Not sure if my W4 has yet to complete but am starting to get that bullish feeling again..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Am in looking for a fifth wave.. I'll see what the U.S does to the pair tonight..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

interesting pattern on the euro/usd

i am seeing a bullish set up here strong break up off a trend line now forming a band. looking for another test of support or a small position on a break out.

notice the support line that became resistance and has now become support.

aud also showing signs of further higher prices. euro is my pick as it's charging up in this range.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



Trade_It said:


> interesting pattern on the euro/usd
> 
> i am seeing a bullish set up here strong break up off a trend line now forming a band. looking for another test of support or a small position on a break out.
> 
> notice the support line that became resistance and has now become support.
> 
> aud also showing signs of further higher prices. euro is my pick as it's charging up in this range.




broke out i am long on the eur/usd from lunch time today.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Have taken a small bite of the Euro.. int 3rd of the 5th??
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## soso

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



soso said:


> My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.





tend to agree with your cycle point soso


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

With the Skippy and Euro consolidating at the moment I might slip down to the river and wet a line for an hour or two..  :fish: 
 Cheers
........Kauri



> October 29. Although not doing a whole lot now after the break above 1.4400 early this morning, EUR/USD looks poised to trade higher with dealers noting stops just above the early high of 1.4426 at 1.4430. Option barriers are tipped just above at 1.4440 and larger at 1.4450. Asia does not look to be in any mood to extend moves to the topside but London could see EUR/USD spurt higher should these levels be pierced. In the meantime, headwind will continue to be seen on defense of these upside barriers and on profit-takes from some longs. EUR/USD is currently indicated at 1.4410/11.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

If the Euro is going to back off for a whiles I guess the 1.62 mark would be as good a spot as any??
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Also took off my ST Euro last night... will be watching for a run into a minor 5th..
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## reece55

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

All right, I think finally it is time to start to think the Euro will correct from here....

I have taken a short with a stop loss of 144.60, MT down with a cessation of a wave 5. If we can get below the current trend line at about 1.435~ I would look to add to the position. Kauri, interesting note from WSJ regarding interest rates and I do think economically that makes sense - as for what Bernake will actually do - beats me!!!!!!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



reece55 said:


> All right, I think finally it is time to start to think the Euro will correct from here....
> 
> I have taken a short with a stop loss of 144.60, MT down with a cessation of a wave 5. If we can get below the current trend line at about 1.435~ I would look to add to the position. Kauri, interesting note from WSJ regarding interest rates and I do think economically that makes sense - as for what Bernake will actually do - beats me!!!!!!
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




 Hi Reece,
             Too many rumours floating around for me at the moment.. will wait for the CSI (and no doubt another raft of rumours)tonight and see where I go from there.
             Good trading with the short.
 Cheers
...........Kauri



> London, October 30. The late Asian dip found real money, Asian interbank and other assorted buyers amid the move lower but it was not until rumors of Chinese buying surfaced that the lows were forced. Into early Europe and spot has bounced off 1.4375 to run back towards 1.4400 as this sovereign demand is discussed. Offers into the figure look to curb the initial rebound but should the price manage to take out 1.4410 then look for a retest of the all-time highs at 1.4439.
> The latest Greg Ip article in the WSJ calls into question the current Fed ethos but the bulk of the market is still positioned for a 25bp rate cut from the FOMC this week. Should a deeper reduction be considered then the Dollar will be hurt further but in the short-term bulls still look to the option barriers and structures into 1.4450.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*

Mods.. is it possible to re-name this thread to just Euro.. a bit misleading as it is...Thanks.   

 A lot of bull around the Euro at the moment...

  Cheers
..........Kauri



> The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.4440 after the EUR/USD made a fresh all-time high at 1.4441 despite the "hawkish" WSJ/Greg IP article, lower oil prices and weaker Wall Street. The EUR/USD made another fresh all-time high at 1.4442 as soon as Asia opened and then spent the next six hours grinding between 1.4430/40. The EUR/USD pushed higher again in the afternoon amid talk of potential Asian central bank buying after a number of Asian central banks intervened heavily in their respective currencies and accumulated US dollars they don"t need. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.4448 before option related selling ahead of a 1.4450 barrier capped and kept stops above that level safe for the time being. The EUR/USD drifted back to 1.4440 after the 1.4450 failed to give way and stayed there for the balance of the session.
> Proof that sentiment towards the EUR/USD is red-hot bullish was very evident yesterday when the EUR/USD plumbed new highs despite some uncertainty over the FOMC outcome created by the Ip article. Analysts feel that only a Fed no-change decision would deter the market from pushing the EUR/USD ever higher.


----------



## professor_frink

That do you kauri?

This better put me in the good books with your budgie


----------



## Kauri

professor_frink said:


> That do you kauri?
> 
> This better put me in the good books with your budgie




  Thanks Prof...
     I'm trying to get back in his good books, doesn't trust me at the moment for some reason...   
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



soso said:


> My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.




Hi Soso, how do you get to the 4th November as a culmination point ? I am not a technical chart expert. Maybe you can elaborate a bit, why you see the 4th November as a termination point. Thanks.

So it's early next week ( sunday / monday ), only a few days to count. We shall see..


----------



## soso

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



DonAqua said:


> Hi Soso, how do you get to the 4th November as a culmination point ? I am not a technical chart expert. Maybe you can elaborate a bit, why you see the 4th November as a termination point. Thanks.
> 
> So it's early next week ( sunday / monday ), only a few days to count. We shall see..




Hi DonAqua,

November 4th is a _vibration_ in time according to my analysis which is based on Gann's teachings. It doesn't mean that it will be a high that day, it simply means that on that day there is a _probability_ that the trend that went into that day will be reversed. Of course this is not enough to trade it by itself and complementary analysis of price should be added. 

On a side note, USDJPY also has an important vibration on November 4th. Cable on November 2nd and November 15th.

Cheers,
-soso


----------



## reece55

USD so far is making a nice come back after last nights record high due to the interest rate change......

At one stage, I was more than 80 pips down, but still have the trade open with a neutral position ATM..... Cautiously optimistic of a turning point here with the Euro being liquidated heavily across most of the majors....

Cheers


----------



## reece55

reece55 said:


> USD so far is making a nice come back after last nights record high due to the interest rate change......
> 
> At one stage, I was more than 80 pips down, but still have the trade open with a neutral position ATM..... Cautiously optimistic of a turning point here with the Euro being liquidated heavily across most of the majors....
> 
> Cheers




OK, well after all my bravado, I ended up netting this one off square after making a few pips off the Yen pairs last night.......

With hindsight, it was a sensible thing (now rallying at least 60 pips back up again), wasn't game enough to hold pre Non Farm Payrolls.... I still believe we will see a snap back, just not willing to incur the margin costs....

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

reece55 said:


> OK, well after all my bravado, I ended up netting this one off square after making a few pips off the Yen pairs last night.......
> 
> With hindsight, it was a sensible thing (now rallying at least 60 pips back up again), wasn't game enough to hold pre Non Farm Payrolls.... I still believe we will see a snap back, just not willing to incur the margin costs....
> 
> Cheers




 Hi Reece,
             Some chatter that the September NFP is in for a nasty revision down may be helping the crosses currently.. but until the figures come out in a couple of hours it's only talk...  
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Edwood

long term euro-USD, monthly view - something not quite right with this  tho....


----------



## reece55

Non farm payrolls - huge positive move here for the USD, slamming the door shut on any potential rate cut in Dec.....

Pair result - EUR rallies to new high..... Hrmmmmm...... ?????? Am I missing something......

100 pip range in 10 mins so far, lets see where we go from here.......

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

reece55 said:


> Non farm payrolls - huge positive move here for the USD, slamming the door shut on any potential rate cut in Dec.....
> 
> Pair result - EUR rallies to new high..... Hrmmmmm...... ?????? Am I missing something......
> 
> 100 pip range in 10 mins so far, lets see where we go from here.......
> 
> Cheers




Reece...
  Just picked this up..   
 Cheers
...........Kauri



> Nov. 2. Positive US data only attracted fresh USD sellers which again *raises the speculation that a central bank or banks is diversifying so aggressively that a shift in a current basket or move to a currency basket from a current USD peg is increasingly likely*. EUR/USD surged to fresh highs of 1.4525 on the US data, dragging EUR/JPY through 166.50 and triggering stops. The cross spiked to highs around 166.75/80 and currently trades at 166.71 with the next resistance level at 167.25 and the high from October 31st. Cross demand may face some headwind from the credit market concerns with the attention now on the stock markets. *Merrill Lynch is now down 3.4% in pre-open trading* which is going to help weigh on stocks today.


----------



## reece55

Kauri said:


> Reece...
> Just picked this up..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Thanks Kauri, interesting developments.......

That extreme overbought spike up to 1.452 looks like stops that were triggered for sure, it was such a violent spike up........

Bears are a foot for the USD....

Cheers


----------



## ithatheekret

Everything I see is pointing to the 147's test  ......... I wonder if we are in an upswing headed for the 1.50 range , that'd melt some cheese ......

the DXY nudged up hard against 76.058/9 , I don't think the index has ever been that low before ....... and the ISM along with non farm payrolls came in better than expected , but the souring has continued .

Have traders become happified enough to comfortably sell the mighty greenback ?

I believe 147.8 is the hurdle ...... and we must consider that the ECB are still inflation hawks , whilst the Fed has slashed 75 basis points recently . Put's a new light on all the previous resistance levels just under 1.46 ,


----------



## DonAqua

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



soso said:


> Hi DonAqua,
> 
> November 4th is a _vibration_ in time according to my analysis which is based on Gann's teachings. It doesn't mean that it will be a high that day, it simply means that on that day there is a _probability_ that the trend that went into that day will be reversed. Of course this is not enough to trade it by itself and complementary analysis of price should be added.
> 
> On a side note, USDJPY also has an important vibration on November 4th. Cable on November 2nd and November 15th.
> 
> Cheers,
> -soso




Hi SoSo

it looks that that vibration in time on 4th November had not much impact in changing the direction of the USD or EUR. What would be then the next possible turning point in time?

Re.. Gann. I don't think I've ever heard of his teachings. Is there any good source on the internet to find more information about his teachings? 

I also check from time to time  http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/ 
Mahendra tells since quite a while that the end of the party is near and the USD will raise against all currencies. One of his statements recently:

>> At this stage I can only do one thing, and that is to give a deadline to the end of the dollar's fall and that will be till the 19 of November. I could 
have been wrong about the dollar, but no power on earth can pull it down 
after that day. As a matter of fact the dollar could turn around from late 
Monday and will trade very stable. After Fed meeting dollar will show 
positive sign but in worst case the 19 will be the final day for its turn 
around. If that fails to happen, then one can say that astrology and 
planetary movements are fake.  <<


Strong words. Let's wait and see. Cup of tea ?


----------



## x2rider

holy smoke what a stellar rise 

 was finding it hard to even get onto 

 Cheers martin


----------



## reece55

x2rider said:


> holy smoke what a stellar rise
> 
> was finding it hard to even get onto
> 
> Cheers martin




Manged to scalp myself 40 pips in my lunch break..... HAHAHA..... Love Fibonacci with these breakouts, up 100 pips, retraced almost exactly to 50, then back up to 80........

Wow though, wouldn't have wanted to hold a position intra day, because it looks like all of sudden the market moved dramatically. This is why I enter a predetermined stop on each trade - still, the gap in each minute was about 20 - 30 pips, so there would be some slippage.....

Boy am I glad I cashed out my short all the way back at about 1.45, we are another 150 pips up.... I still firmly believe that there will be a snapback, there are just way too many USD bears ATM.....

Cheers


----------



## numbercruncher

reece55 said:


> there are just way too many USD bears ATM.....
> 
> Cheers





Including many Chinese officals calling for diversification for some of its 1.4t USD reserves.


----------



## Kauri

Although the Chinese official calling for moving out of $US and into the Euro now back-pedalling on that (it was never likely that they dump $US en masse  ), the fact is that China and several other Central Banks have been and will continue to gently buy into the Euro, my strategy has been and will still be to buy into the Euro against the dollar on dips/retraces.... until I change my strategy that is..   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## x2rider

I have also been buying on the dips . The lng term prospects as still good for the euro . I think anymore weakness in the USD will have to have some officials rethining the holding of USD's .

 I am pretty much outside my comfort zone at the moment on the euro and have been selling into some of the rises to keep my position manageable .

 But with the price of oil going higher the Looney is still a good stand by money earner.

Cheers martin


----------



## Kauri

Says the man who just spiked the Euro 100 points??  
Cheers
.........Kauri



> November 7. Over DowJones. More comments from the Buba official in Beijing. He adds that excessive volatility in the FX market should be avoided.


----------



## x2rider

I wonder if I came out and said that I am getting out of USD 's would I be able to get a reaction like that
  They could always be selling the us at the moment and looking to turn a profit?


----------



## soso

*Re: Euro.... (going up again?)*



DonAqua said:


> Hi SoSo
> 
> it looks that that vibration in time on 4th November had not much impact in changing the direction of the USD or EUR. What would be then the next possible turning point in time?
> 
> Re.. Gann. I don't think I've ever heard of his teachings. Is there any good source on the internet to find more information about his teachings?




Other than halting the rise for one day indeed it didn't have any impact. In my view it failed. On Cable was similar, well at least Cable needed 3 days to push through the high established on 2nd Nov (vibration day for Cable). The important point is that we deal with probabilities, as with anything in the markets. Trying to buck a trend is not a good strategy regardless the tools one uses imo. 

Next date is 14/15 Nov for Cable, Euro and Aud. 
And 13 Nov for USDJPY. I would really watch this one, JPY is the best dancer of all pairs through these timepoints. 

On Gann, well just do a google search for WD Gann there's plenty of info around, unfortunately there's also a lot of snakes trying to sell "trading courses" or "secret teachings" based on WD Gann. So beware.


----------



## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> Everything I see is pointing to the 147's test  ......... I wonder if we are in an upswing headed for the 1.50 range , that'd melt some cheese ......
> 
> the DXY nudged up hard against 76.058/9 , I don't think the index has ever been that low before ....... and the ISM along with non farm payrolls came in better than expected , but the souring has continued .
> 
> Have traders become happified enough to comfortably sell the mighty greenback ?
> 
> I believe 147.8 is the hurdle ...... and we must consider that the ECB are still inflation hawks , whilst the Fed has slashed 75 basis points recently . Put's a new light on all the previous resistance levels just under 1.46 ,





We have that 147's test going on right now , pullbacks into the high 146's could be nice pickup points ,keeps nudging past 146.9-147.2 highest so far this session I've seen is 147.33 . Good scalping material so far ...........

Of course comments out of China today , pointing to them diversifying into other swaps , such as the EUR/USD , has helped the rally start , clarification also helped it pullback ...... but ....... it still looks set up to continue , as it held 146 . with the market probably already factoring in the ECB will pause on rates this time round . The otherside of the equation would see the hopes of another cut by the Fed as fairytale stuff , and in my books definitely not on the cards .


----------



## Kauri

An interesting place,in time and price, to stumble...   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Poker

Just how low can the USD go? haha


----------



## Edwood

might be time to start looking for a turn - but waiting for confirmation before entering

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


----------



## ithatheekret

In long @ 146.32 & 146.40 best seen so far is 147.04


----------



## Kauri

More rumours/fact??
Cheers
.........Kauri



> November 09: The EUR/USD has traded to a fresh  all-time high at 1.4739 after Bloomberg reported that S&P said that a CDO managed by *State Street  began liquidating its assets*, prompting S&P to slash investment vehicle"s ratings as much as 18 levels. The news reinforces concerns that forced asset sales by SIVs will lead to more heavy writedowns by major financial institutions.
> There is talk of a 1.4750 option barrier and large stops above that might become a target if the price action continues. The EUR/USD trades 1.4725/30.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> More rumours/fact??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Re last post.. May actually support the USD as any forced liquidation at bargain prices may lead to more US financial related write-downs, taking the Dow down???
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm starting to think the Fed is going to go into fairytale territory mode .

The last swathe of data out of the US was dismal , pointing to a real slowdown over there , that would mean rate cuts ........ again .

In the meantime we see European manufacturing still moving along , with a currency that has closed in on an 80% rise to battle with .

The BoE look like they might have to cut too .


----------



## ithatheekret

Strewth , it looks like we're on again .


----------



## ithatheekret

147.04 dip ..........  looking to see if the 147.10 area turns into support instead of resistance . Trailing stops attached .


----------



## ithatheekret

Stopped out just above my entry , and can't recall a time when I have had to readjust the trailing stop so many times . Have an order waiting in the wings . The US futures look rather negative for next week already and instead of running on the fundamentals , the Euro seems to be riding the bad news out of the US , this looks to be the catalyst to the volatility to me . 

That being the case in would be prudent to also adjust my risk-aversion , having seen the all time high of 147.30  , then the Jean Claude T. dummy spit , I have no doubt a 150.00 Euro will be seen very soon . Given the climate they have had to operate under , I now have a new appreciation of European business management and I know where I'd be looking for CEO's etc.


----------



## ithatheekret

The high @147.30/31 has corrected but it looks as though it's a 5th wave set up ...... 

any comments ?

noting correction has not achieved the 144 area in the last sell off


----------



## ithatheekret

The strength in the Yen across the swaps , had my main focus yesterday .


Today I'm having a go at the Euro against the USD , just to get the feel of the road . I think this is the beginning of a fifth wave and expect a good rise .

Tight stops , crossed fingers and no cursing  


oh yeah ...145.421 for a late start .


----------



## ithatheekret

Oh , wow .... a rally moment .


----------



## ithatheekret

After amassing positions , they all suddenly hit the limits from 146092-146099 

volatility everywhere .


----------



## ithatheekret

!47's then back down , up again , back down , up again ...... yep the markets awake on this one too . Feel like Bronco Billy today


----------



## soso

This is what I currently see from a EW point of view. I would like to see a False Break of the current top before reversing and that would be the final point of both 5 Waves. 

Also, today we have a vibration in time.


----------



## ithatheekret

Thanks for the analysis soso , the Euro is currently climbing the 147 wall of worry now 

PS...  the 42 pip in my post should be 52


----------



## Kauri

Seems to be at a possibly interesting juncture... or something like that...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I reckon your right there Kauri , very interesting juncture .

Nudged into the 147's nicely to take out the most recent high @ 147.25 from last Wednesday , Thursday it retreated 20 pips from there to 147.05 . But given we were in the backend of trading when the spike into 147.5 occurred , I want to see if it can hold this area , more so , above 147.25 first . Previous action to the lead up of close had it being thumped around 146.7-146.8 , if it retreats below that area in the opening , then my radar will be primed to see if it can hold that area . If not , hmmm , could be parachute stuff with 146.10/20 first on the rank , with a plausible possibility of 145 if 146.10 gets lost in the plot . So fingers crossed for some support @ 147.25 or even 146.9 , above that heavy selling area @ 146.7/80

But I keep seeing Novembers low glaring at me from the chart and two cents is nothing in the market nowdays .............


----------



## ithatheekret

Bit the bullet and went short on the Euro , could get burnt though S.H.'s .

Also short the AUD/JPY , hoping for two steps forward and four steps back and short the EUR/JPY , AUS/USD is threatening 89.14 , so I might just short that too , make that will with a tight stop ...... no have now . Oh and i took one of those high risk positions and short the USD/ JPY cross , don't normally touch it too often nowdays , the volatility there gives me sphincter reactions . Last short so far and a gutsy one , I'm short the pound , with the 204.'s in mind as I can see bugger all real support under that until the 2.02's .

Could get stopped out of any of these today , but have raked it in after last week so the risk / reward is out of pure profits . The last EUR/JPY reversal into the 162's was manna from heaven ..... and I had one of my pivots wrong too and it still worked ...... go figure huh ...


----------



## Kauri

Hi ithat..
           May be a quiet sideways market with the big Thanksgiving.... *possibly* a bit of ranging????
            Am long the NZDJPY... but as I have to be away this morning will leave the rest be until I get back after lunchtime..
            All the best with your trades
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Well they have gone backwards , bar my Cable entry so it got folded , no patience to play against that one .

162.9 down to 162.02 and 162.018 EUR/JPY

146.693 & 146.847 down to 146.596 EUR/USD

89.774 & 89.913 & 89.793 down to 89.484 AUD/USD

99.587 & 99.620 down to 98.917 AUD/JPY 

 111.044 / 046/048 upto to 110.579 USD/JPY


out until tonight for now .............


----------



## ithatheekret

SMS alarms had everyone looking at me in Coles , real good look ............ but I got home in time to short the Euro , nothing much between 146.10 and 145.20 ......... except air :

Gotta have a go at it . 

better have a squizzy at Cable too should it desire to head south :


----------



## ithatheekret

146.375 , we have enough for brown champagne so far ................

someone hang a sixpack of Stellas around 145.20


----------



## ithatheekret

I wonder how many stops it would trigger if it hits 146.10 .......


----------



## ithatheekret

146.274 ( fractionally lower ) three times in a row ...... so I reversed pos. and expect 146.3 barrier , bounce or my trailing stop better work .

don't really know why .... just a gut feeling , could be wrong but momentum is swinging about .


see if it can push aside 146.4 with any ease before we get comfortable .


----------



## ithatheekret

Crikey timing or what ........   146.42 in a snap , here comes the retort .


----------



## ithatheekret

I was looking at the Swissie earlier today , I had never seen it so high before and woe and behold the Euro does the same thing against the USD and goes ATH on us .

On the otherhand ........ that would also mean the USD made a record low again .

So much for the strong dollar , but I've always thought the rhetoric was designed for economic confidence in the US as an investment vehicle ...... or to encourage the oil spreads etc. , to stay within USD controls .

I'd better turn Bloomberg on for the spin  , I'm sure all the gossip and rumours will hit the screen after todays efforts on the dollar front .


----------



## Kauri

Just can't go past the humble triangle..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Small ledge/flag may be forming now... ??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

A flag maybe.... 150 in the sights in the European session???
 The triangle (2 posts back) worked out well... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yes but it weaning off a little now , had a little ride a few times , one was accidental looking at wrong chart and entered EUR/USD order window I had up at same time ( I was very tired ..... and that's my excuse ) .

Doing wonders on the EUR/JPYshort at present , actually waiting for the next spike to hit it again .


----------



## Kauri

Flag drooped, and then some...   stops cleared out... maybe a run up now..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## professor_frink

Nice selloff this evening.....150+ pips from the days high and it might not be over yet(but probably is because I've said that)


----------



## soso

My view, looking at the price action today I think the 5th Wave just completed in both smaller and larger patterhn. This option is also sustained by a time vibration which is due today. I think a larger correction/consolidation is due before resuming.

Next vibrations for Euro:
- *December 6*


----------



## Kauri

professor_frink said:


> Nice selloff this evening.....150+ pips from the days high and it might not be over yet(but probably is because I've said that)




 Just been talking to my Uncle who is at the Freemasons lodge near Covent Gardens and what he had to say.. in confidence... oh dear...   ..    another factor to heed/ignore... straight charts for me anyday....
 Cheers
..........Kauri ...  :alcohol:


----------



## professor_frink

Kauri said:


> Just been talking to my Uncle who is at the Freemasons lodge near Covent Gardens and what he had to say.. in confidence... oh dear...   ..    another factor to heed/ignore... straight charts for me anyday....
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri ...  :alcohol:




.


----------



## buggalug

soso said:


> My view, looking at the price action today I think the 5th Wave just completed in both smaller and larger patterhn. This option is also sustained by a time vibration which is due today. I think a larger correction/consolidation is due before resuming.
> Next vibrations for Euro:
> - *December 6*




Hi Soso,

I have the same daily count as you, from the hourly I thought we might have one last crack at 1.5. But I'm very much a EW newbie, so happy to take any criticism.


----------



## soso

buggalug said:


> Hi Soso,
> 
> I have the same daily count as you, from the hourly I thought we might have one last crack at 1.5. But I'm very much a EW newbie, so happy to take any criticism.




Hi Buggalug,

Good to know you also have that count, I'm a newbie at EW also


----------



## Kauri

Hi TI..
I am in one of my schitzophrenic states with the Euro... on the shorter frame I am looking for a possible bounce... whilst further out I see the possibility of mid 146's... 
Cheers
........Kauri   and me...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Hi TI..
> I am in one of my schitzophrenic states with the Euro... on the shorter frame I am looking for a possible bounce... whilst further out I see the possibility of mid 146's...
> Cheers
> ........Kauri   and me...




Hey Kauri.  I assume TI means me!

I saw it finding support on the 89 ma last night, i was thinking there was going to be a quick long but i did not get the entry signal before i went to bed. It sure rallied with the US stocks. It's finding resistance again. I am also looking at it more from a short point of view waiting on a entry. 

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Hey Kauri. I assume TI means me!
> 
> I saw it finding support on the 89 ma last night, i was thinking there was going to be a quick long but i did not get the entry signal before i went to bed. It sure rallied with the US stocks. It's finding resistance again. I am also looking at it more from a short point of view waiting on a entry.
> 
> Cheers



 Hi Trade It,
               Sorry about the TI...  
 Agree with you... was expecting a bounce last night (may turn out to be a longer rally??).. and am now watching for signs of a retreat. Wouldn't be surprised if she shuffled basically side-ways today setting up for tonight??
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

what a run around today and tonight! 

solid support then it makes a long signal, then gives a profit just not enough to take profits or move to breakeven but enough to leave it be, come back and it close em out fast time!

sits on support gives a long entry at 6 dose the same wild **** drops enough to wash out all the short term stops then goes straight back up!   

But i pulled 14 on the short side while it attacked my stop!  right now it's exactly back to my entry! aggghhh the London session 

all the while the aud was making a nice calm push with out the fire works, and I thought the support on the euro made it a more attractive position!

Kauri I should have been with u getting my eye's checked!

***UPDATE just went long again big surge rejected 89sma broke range MACD confirms. support confirmed again**

This is the last time if it fails that's it for the week!*


----------



## Kauri

Time for a kit kat???

A large 1.4690 option expiry might well pull price back once the early North American settles down. 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Time for a kit kat???
> 
> A large 1.4690 option expiry might well pull price back once the early North American settles down.
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




or not...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I took a pos @ 147.226 , have a pinger under that as you know Kauri , blowed if I know whether I'll see it hit not far off though . Sentiment in the early trade may have muffled that idea .


----------



## ithatheekret

Been all over the place with this cross and the Yen tonight , bonza night .

I bet your watching that cuppa trying to form on the Euro from the 147.15 decline to 146.927 .... eh Kauri 

I couldn't resist looked like the floor had been swept and mopped , ready for some muddy boots


----------



## ithatheekret

146.876 is my buy in entry waiting ....... 

didn't put anything under it and I hope i don't need to chase .


----------



## ithatheekret

Yes I'm in on the Euro now too , might put one under even though it picked up , just in case I did an early .


second stop buy hit @ 146.849


----------



## ithatheekret

Been shorting and buying , more on the bottom slope starting @ 1.46688 for my exit , then mini scwhinging . My Ichi just crossed were under a cloud but could see a spurt into 147.15 again , which might hit a few stops .....

but.... under a cloud with another crossing ( opp ) coming up it could retreat further .

PS... I'm holding long 1.46709


----------



## ithatheekret

A brawl started after the last crossing , another pos. one coming up will put it in the cloud just after the crossing ...... here comes volatility .


----------



## Kauri

Just how strong is the Euro as a whole???   
Cheers
..........Kauri



> Scanning through reports it appears that gradually it is dawning on some of the macro accounts that maybe the Euro miracle isn't quite as miraculous after all. An excellent but lengthy article on the International Herald Tribune site regarding the sorry state of affairs in the Spanish housing sector is worth a read, and brings up the following sobering facts:-
> * Spain over the past 2 years produced 1/3rd of new jobs in the Euro zone, adding 22% of the region's new demand.
> * House prices have risen by 176% over the same period, and construction has accounted for one in every five new jobs.
> * Spanish banks have four times the provisions of their rivals across the European Union, and 3/4 of 60,000 property companies in Spain may go bankrupt.
> * The C/A deficit demands E2 billion a week to finance.
> Tight European credit conditions, a global focus on sub-prime issues, and stabilizing US economic conditions make the buck look quite attractive.


----------



## Kauri

stepped out for some air and missed this quickie....  
Cheers
...........Kauri

P.S.... and I guess this explains it... 



> Rumours Citigroup could report bigger asset write downs in its quarterly results due out tomorrow reportedly sent the EUR/USD soaring by more than 50 pips to 1.4875 high, before easing some on ECB Bini s comments, who played down inflation fears.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

taken a long on the eur/usd,

where the pa fell to is still ok as long as the buying stays there. bounced off a trend line.

see what happens


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> taken a long on the eur/usd,
> 
> where the pa fell to is still ok as long as the buying stays there. bounced off a trend line.
> 
> see what happens




taken profits +27 pips.


----------



## hangseng

If it doesn't hold 14776 then support will wane quickly and drop rapidly to 14712 IMO.

Euro should be going up against the USD, something is not right here.


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm wondering when Trichet is going to raise the rate , he has a growth problem , but inflation and a consumer credit are out weighing these .

The same here the RBA is really in the same spot , slowing growth possibilities with high inflation , higher debt levels .

I believe the rates by both are faits accomplis to rise .

The inflation monster is out of its cave .


----------



## bvbfan

Europe has some issues with property bubble in Spain so Trichet may be worried/limited to leaving rates on hold.

I think AUD has greater upward pressure on rates than EUR, I'm quite bullish on the AUDEUR cross, expect it to move on fundamentals to mid 0.64-65


----------



## AuggieW

*EUR/USD*

Did anyone else buy USD @ 1.4650? I'm holding until my stochastic crosses at the oversold level heading back up. At last it decided to fall off its uptrend it had been on since 21 Dec.  Anyone tracking the same movement?

Auggie


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: EUR/USD*



AuggieW said:


> Did anyone else buy USD @ 1.4650? I'm holding until my stochastic crosses at the oversold level heading back up. At last it decided to fall off its uptrend it had been on since 21 Dec.  Anyone tracking the same movement?
> 
> Auggie




There is already a eur/usd thread Auggie

as for the usd, I am watching i was long on the usd/chf yesterday taken profits. looking for another confirmed entry.


----------



## DonAqua

soso said:


> My view, looking at the price action today I think the 5th Wave just completed in both smaller and larger patterhn. This option is also sustained by a time vibration which is due today. I think a larger correction/consolidation is due before resuming.
> 
> Next vibrations for Euro:
> - *December 6*




Hi, Soso

what's your view currently ?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

DonAqua said:


> Hi, Soso
> 
> what's your view currently ?




r u being sarcastic Don? Or is that a legit Q?

I know what my answer would be.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bvbfan said:


> Europe has some issues with property bubble in Spain so Trichet may be worried/limited to leaving rates on hold.
> 
> I think AUD has greater upward pressure on rates than EUR, I'm quite bullish on the AUDEUR cross, expect it to move on fundamentals to mid 0.64-65




totally agree BVBfan,

just looking at the chart the aud is making new trend like the eur is, but the aud is on a much better angle of assent. I am waiting for a minor pull back to my 21 ema on the 4 hour to get in. if this is what it seems to be now.

but i won't write the euro off.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

dame it!

I was watching the eur/usd on the 4hour a pendent was forming, normal trend cont pattern, took my mate to the airport got home and missed the break out aghhhhhhhhhhh

anyone catch the move?


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> dame it!
> 
> I was watching the eur/usd on the 4hour a pendent was forming, normal trend cont pattern, took my mate to the airport got home and missed the break out aghhhhhhhhhhh
> 
> anyone catch the move?




This one??? no mate... missed it..promise.  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Eurogal moving again . Limit set at 1.4741's little pozzies.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ithatheekret said:


> Eurogal moving again . Limit set at 1.4741's little pozzies.




hmmm 1hour at 6 gave a buy, took it and thing fell like a rock. still hanging in there. It's retraced a fair amount back but jeez what a sell ya the dummy!

:22_yikes:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> hmmm 1hour at 6 gave a buy, took it and thing fell like a rock. still hanging in there. It's retraced a fair amount back but jeez what a sell ya the dummy!
> 
> :22_yikes:




looks to have found a temporary footing on the 21 ema

see if we can get a bounce off at next candle, hmm way it's acting may come this hour! i better shut up or it will fall!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> looks to have found a temporary footing on the 21 ema
> 
> see if we can get a bounce off at next candle, hmm way it's acting may come this hour! i better shut up or it will fall!




switched short,

the 4 hour backs me up so its not a revenge trade! hmmm chasing me already...... stop above the candle see what happens on this.......


----------



## DonAqua

>Apocalypto< said:


> r u being sarcastic Don? Or is that a legit Q?
> 
> I know what my answer would be.




It's a legitimate question. The Euro is overvalued. I reckon with a reversal of the trend sooner or later. That is the Dollar will raise. Unexpected and coming as a surprise to many. I know, I said this already last year. I am still convinced that we will see a reversal of the trend in a not too distant future.

Regarding the housing/property trouble in Europe: Spain has some problems, but it looks that Great Britain is prone to even bigger troubles. I was at a road show of a financial institution recently, and they outlined the trouble spots. Watch the UK.


----------



## ithatheekret

>Apocalypto< said:


> hmmm 1hour at 6 gave a buy, took it and thing fell like a rock. still hanging in there. It's retraced a fair amount back but jeez what a sell ya the dummy!
> 
> :22_yikes:




Sorry you've lost me , I'll swing any swap or I'll buy and hold sell and hold , it just depends on what the markets sentiment and BSDs do .


The only move I stuffed up last night was a Yen move , it was quickly corrected .

The move your looking at I think ....... was 6 hours prior , from memory it just fell over 148 then retraced to 147.65 I think and yes I bought again , getting close to 30 clean pips from it on the second run , which didn't make it back to the 148 area . I think the best it has done since that run is 147.90's .


----------



## ithatheekret

Looks like Eurogal is going dance again , pinging 148.80 I'm on .


dip , dance , jump hurdles ?


----------



## Kauri

calm before the storm with euro ignoring a slight improvement in Eurozone PMI data and settling down to wait for the almighty US NFP... feel like jockeying for position but noticed that Danny Hobby is aboard Strike Softly.. may wait until the first turn..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

It's a start ..... patience is needed ........ no green cans so Stella it is .

I've used 4.86% margin no higher this time Kauri t'was naughty before . Too hard one thinks ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I've used 4.86% margin no higher this time Kauri t'was naughty before . ?




  I use natures inbuilt natural stress meter to know when I have gone in too deep..
When the clacker valve starts biting chunks out of the seat I back off.. 
Cheers 
 ..........SteveH


----------



## ithatheekret

I moved out nicely then 1 poz made nothing .


----------



## ithatheekret

Eurogal is dancing again Tenk will cross from underneath est. 1.4895/92 and it should be above cloud .

Projection says 1.4918-1.4948 ? different one , might have to recheck that .

1.4892 cross


----------



## tayser

1.4982


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Short on the eur/usd

ent 15037
S/L 15067

Counter trend in the making. but I have thrust protection on!


----------



## Kauri

>Apocalypto< said:


> Short on the eur/usd
> 
> ent 15037
> S/L 15067
> 
> Counter trend in the making. but I have thrust protection on!




lottsa bids in the .30's and .20's supporting... with a chunk of options to be protected at 51 even for overhead resistance..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> lottsa bids in the .30's and .20's supporting... with a chunk of options to be protected at 51 even for overhead resistance..




It's chasing me Kauri! but I will hold in there. I can afford to let 30 go after making 234 in the last 18 hours!

ahhh back to sweet red : )


----------



## Kauri

>Apocalypto< said:


> It's chasing me Kauri! but I will hold in there. I can afford to let 30 go after making 234 in the last 18 hours!
> 
> ahhh back to sweet red : )




a bit more fuel to the fire??
ECB Weber comments the market is wrong to bet on rate cuts from the European Central Bank. The ECB member has noted that such expectations "fail to consider the dangers of higher inflation".


----------



## Stormin_Norman

inflation is a bigger concern to central banks then economic growth.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Short on the eur/usd
> 
> ent 15037
> S/L 15067
> 
> Counter trend in the making. but I have thrust protection on!




stopped, -30 pips.

It sure has legs right now but the angle of assent it's on is getting a little to 90 degree even for Forex standards.

Still looking for another counter trend entry.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Sold the euro tonight couple of reasons there!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Sold the euro tonight couple of reasons there!




closed out +34 pips


----------



## >Apocalypto<

another quick trade tonight, missed the other three nice plays.

+15 Limit exit


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Sold the Eur/usd tonight. Nice rounding with other entry criteria met. 

+15 pips limit exit


*2008.04.11 19:57:47	'79746': order #8989117 sell 1.00 EURUSD at 1.5822 sl: 1.5838 tp: 0.0000 closed at price 1.5807*


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Second trade tonight.

Pa came back to 21 formed a doji trend cont. macd confirmed the trend cont.

+21 manual close. that's it for tonight unless something really plum comes along.
*
2008.04.11 21:22:09	'79746': order #8992868 buy 1.00 EURUSD at 1.5825 sl: 1.5805 tp: 0.0000 closed at price 1.5846*


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Third trade tonight,

macd pattern with doji entry.

 + 11 pips Limit exit.

*
2008.04.11 22:48:14	'79746': order #8998693 sell 1.00 EURUSD at 1.5826 was modified -> sl: 1.5844 tp: 1.5815*


----------



## Kauri

anyone else playing the Euro.. (apart from OzFX that is)? Has been a PPS'ing good run sofar.. but time to bail now and see what the Noram market thinks...   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## el caballo

Hi Kauri

Yes, this is a great currency to trade.  How do you trade this - via the shorter term 1 min chart, or longer term hour-type setup, or combination of the two?  Also, are you trading this with IG Markets?

Technically, many speak now of the triple top/triangle that has formed.  How does your Elliot wave approach view this?  Will this be a consolidation phase, leading to higher highs, or the bend at the end of a long bull market? I recall Gann viewed triple top breakthroughs as being extremely powerful.

Any comments are appreciated.


----------



## Kauri

el caballo said:


> Hi Kauri
> 
> Yes, this is a great currency to trade. How do you trade this - via the shorter term 1 min chart, or longer term hour-type setup, or combination of the two? Also, are you trading this with IG Markets?
> 
> Technically, many speak now of the triple top/triangle that has formed. How does your Elliot wave approach view this? Will this be a consolidation phase, leading to higher highs, or the bend at the end of a long bull market? I recall Gann viewed triple top breakthroughs as being extremely powerful.
> 
> Any comments are appreciated.




I trade on the 60 and 5 min charts... at the moment my daily chart says we should be looking for a break, one way or tother, from a triangle (double and triple tops often are the top resistance line  of a triangle?), my *basic* E/W points to a short 5th due.. but, as with the price of anchovies, anything is possible..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Finally got through.

Looking parabolic on the 5min chart.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

God knows what happened to the euro then. I just closed out my 2 lots +14 at limit and +47 closed on second lot.

was a short a very sweet ride. again i say there no place like FX!!!!

there has been money every were this week, too bad I missed half it due to work!


----------



## Kauri

>Apocalypto< said:


> God knows what happened to the euro then. I just closed out my 2 lots +14 at limit and +47 closed on second lot.
> 
> was a short a very sweet ride. again i say there no place like FX!!!!
> 
> there has been money every were this week, too bad I missed half it due to work!





 Eurogroup chairman and Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker"s comment that the markets did not correctly understand the G7 message on FX. Juncker also says that he does not consider the euro rise versus the USD desirable..


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Juncker also says that he does not consider the euro rise versus the USD desirable..




I got that impression too, couple months ago. 

I'm thinking the US will soon start wanting USD higher too. Big turnaround coming... probably euro back to around 1.35. 

Have the EU been selling gold and holding USD?


----------



## theasxgorilla

Interestingly Danske Bank seems to think that the ECB might actually raise rates in response to perceived inflation.  Anyone else earning in EUR? 



http://www-2.danskebank.com/danskeresearch



> *ECB sharpening rhetoric - could it hike?*
> 
> What’s new? There was more ECB talk today sharpening the tone on inflation, and there is increasing speculation as to whether the ECB could even raise rates. It is unclear how big that risk is. The markets have been pricing cuts for some time and the ECB may want to send a signal that this will not be possible given current inflation rates. For example, ECB member Garganas said: "Markets have expected interestrate cuts for months, but under these conditions, for reasons that have been well explained by Mr Trichet, interest rates couldn't fall. The ECB governing council's commitment to price stability is certain".
> 
> Other members, though, have mentioned higher rates as an option. For example, Noyer said this morning: "Our big problem is to ensure that inflation falls back below 2% next year... We'll do what it takes for that... If needed we'll move rates". The ECBs Weber has also mentioned that the ECB would have to decide whether rates are high enough.
> 
> Clearly the ECB's concern over inflation (currently at 3.6%) has increased with the recent rise in oil prices and it has therefore sharpened its tone – even though ECB members seem a bit divided as to what the implications should be for rates. The flip side of the high oil price, however, is a stronger euro and weaker growth, which eventually should work to dampen inflation pressure. There is not much the ECB can do about inflation stemming from oil and food – apart from sending a signal.
> 
> Assessment and outlook: We are clearly in untested territory and hence uncertainty is huge. The market has responded to the rhetoric by sending yields higher and the curve has flattened markedly. This has apparently been exaggerated by a big unwinding of CMS steepeners (stop loss). It seems reasonable that the market reprices the risk assessment of the ECB. One of the jokers (there are many at the moment) will be how much growth slows. We will get further indications on this with Flash PMI tomorrow and German Ifo on Thursday. Our main scenario is still that the ECB cut rates in September but we need a strong slowing of the economy for that to come. The risk to our scenario is clearly that it doesn’t have room to cut in September because oil prices and hence inflation is too high.


----------



## Kauri

theasxgorilla said:


> Interestingly Danske Bank seems to think that the ECB might actually raise rates in response to perceived inflation. Anyone else earning in EUR?




  Yep, got a buy signal the tother day...   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

A good 100pip drop to be on on the 5min... may be flagging/coiling/ or even ledging.... one to watch.... she dropped so quickly it has got away from my stop!!  

 Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> A good 100pip drop to be on on the 5min... may be flagging/coiling/ or even ledging.... one to watch.... she dropped so quickly it has got away from my stop!!
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri



 at least the stall?? has given my stop time to catch up...  

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The Euro has been kind to me tonight..   ..
 and no, the trade state indicator in Red is not mya actual holding... am running my part finished EA on a demo acct. to test a few add-ons I've been working on.... am obviously still working on incorporating a stop..    although the entries seem to be OK... so far..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade 1 LONG  -18 pips. Screw up bailed before it stopped me. my target ended up being hit by the thrust white thrust at trade 2. 

Trade 2 LONG +10 follow up from second 1st hit limit 2nd lot out at BE

Trade 3 Short +25 1st at limit +10 2nd at +15 could have been a bit wider but wanted to get back in the black for the evening.

All in all quite the display of undisciplined trading tonight!

Still have the rest US to go don't think i can make it to the end though!

*Got to say, LOVE the new look Joe well done!*

Update
Trade 4 Short +10 on 1st at limit, no second lot.


----------



## Kauri

Hedgies apparently have been bailing earlier...chicago CTA's did/doing what they do best... now been accompanied by the descendants of the Titanics crew...  incidentally.. for all those worried about their weight.. I'll wager there would be more than one genteel lady on the Titanic regretting passing on the cakes trolley as it went passed.. 10 days late.. butt...   

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

After all the sliding I think it has hit a small pause. My HA indicator all puffed out think a trend change is on the cards, well at least a  10 piper! 

I have gone in long (small) I want to add, waiting on my normal entry signs. See how long I can stay up for!


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Hedgies apparently have been bailing earlier...chicago CTA's did/doing what they do best... now been accompanied by the descendants of the Titanics crew...  incidentally.. for all those worried about their weight.. I'll wager there would be more than one genteel lady on the Titanic regretting passing on the cakes trolley as it went passed.. 10 days late.. butt...
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri



Just been phantom trading this one and the USD/AUD, (which is in a simmilar wedge) for awhile before I decide to venture in for real. 

I thought it was due for a good correction, getting a bit wedged in... but I mentioned somewhere else that I was wondering whether it might pop it's top into the low 1.60's... the top of the long term trend channel first. 

So kauri, is this kauri cherp cherp cheep cheep for wagering on the USD strengthening? 

A friend went overseas for a holiday a few years back and said she came back with more AUD then she went with, thanks to currency conversion swings. 

I might just run down to the currency exchange booth and grab a hand-ful of USD's and put them under the matress for awhile.


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> Just been phantom trading this one and the USD/AUD, (which is in a simmilar wedge) for awhile before I decide to venture in for real.
> 
> I thought it was due for a good correction, getting a bit wedged in... but I mentioned somewhere else that I was wondering whether it might pop it's top into the low 1.60's... the top of the long term trend channel first.
> 
> So kauri, is this kauri cherp cherp cheep cheep for wagering on the USD strengthening?
> 
> A friend went overseas for a holiday a few years back and said she came back with more AUD then she went with, thanks to currency conversion swings.
> 
> I might just run down to the currency exchange booth and grab a hand-ful of USD's and put them under the matress for awhile.





   Hi Whisky... freudian slip sorry.. Whiskers..

    For mine the US is nearing the end of cutting.... theECB has all but put away the jack... UK is is seeing Landsend sinking... NZ is heading for recession...  Aussie is starting to wobble... Germany which alone has propped up Europe is stumbling under the weight... and my Budgies are putting on their winter coats...
    As for the Euro... I'm shorter than Toulouse... unless the buum falls out of the mighty US..  the DJIA is up 130 pts now, while 2-yr Tsy yields are up about 19bp at 2.379% vs 1.669% on April 14th.  
    Mind you... I have .."*I'm wrong*" stops set.. Y nott..

  Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

still long guys

in profit bounce coming on 30min. HA wider then a swelled cabbage! but it could be a set up for a new dive! agree about new direction Kauri. holding long till later today. then see what the market presents!


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Hi Whisky... freudian slip sorry.. Whiskers..
> 
> For mine the US is nearing the end of cutting.... theECB has all but put away the jack... UK is is seeing Landsend sinking... NZ is heading for recession...  Aussie is starting to wobble... Germany which alone has propped up Europe is stumbling under the weight... and my Budgies are putting on their winter coats...
> As for the Euro... I'm shorter than Toulouse... unless the buum falls out of the mighty US..  the DJIA is up 130 pts now, while 2-yr Tsy yields are up about 19bp at 2.379% vs 1.669% on April 14th.
> Mind you... I have .."*I'm wrong*" stops set.. Y nott..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri






Thanks for that, mate.... I got it now, I think


----------



## Whiskers

>Apocalypto< said:


> still long guys
> 
> in profit bounce coming on 30min. HA wider then a swelled cabbage! agree about new direction Kauri. holding long till later today. then see what the market presents!




Watch her... watch her close, or she'll toss ya like a split banana.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Whiskers said:


> Watch her... watch her close, or she'll toss ya like a split banana.




LOL

Longs are closed +27 pips.  back to bed now. no trading till later in the day.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Short trade this afternoon.

*Lot 1 +11 limit Lot 2 +2 stop* 

price is stuck in a range right now just nearing Europe market open and London at 5. interesting to see the markets response to the USD rally yesterday. I am hoping for a choppy volatile session!  see what comes our way.


----------



## caribean

Still in those shorts Ap. mate? it's very pretty...i've only managed 10 points...


----------



## Kauri

Quite a lot of barriers apparently located around 5550... then is fairly clear till the figure// I figure..

  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## caribean

Maybe a bit further to the 200% and TL and not forgeting the square number..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> Still in those shorts Ap. mate? it's very pretty...i've only managed 10 points...




no not in the market now Caribean. waiting on another entry to present it's self. I had my second lot stopped out with a 2 pip gain on a retrace. it sure did keep going there a second entry signal that presented but this entry I have not properly back tested so it's not a approved entry for my system. had to let it go.

But the night is young! 

P.S 
A minor retrace pushing now see were it goes.


----------



## caribean

Yes you're right we've got a long way to go...there's a bit of a milestone within reach for me tonight, i would like to get there before the weekend...
We may experience a bit of chop now...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Going back to the old school with this post. trying to prempt the market instead of playing off what it shows me. but what the hell.

this retrace may have some small legs in it volume building and decent tails on the HA but they can miss lead. IMO this could be a stronger retrace that may sell done again. WAITING

A Long is building but it's no were near a sure thing yet


----------



## caribean

Did anyone score some points to the upside?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Long signal given.

1 lot long +10 Limit exit.

Did u grab some Caribean? right now looks like it has a bit more to go


----------



## caribean

Well done Ap.,i'm not doing so well tonight, the opportunity's are there, but i keep missing them...grand total of 15 abysmal points.
Yesterday i was picking perfect entries and exits, should have been sitting on at least 80 points, anyone else doing better? 
so much for the milestone....lol, will hung around for a little while longer...


----------



## caribean

A bit of a triangle thing forming...5 min's


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> Well done Ap.,i'm not doing so well tonight, the opportunity's are there, but i keep missing them...grand total of 15 abysmal points.
> Yesterday i was picking perfect entries and exits, should have been sitting on at least 80 points, anyone else doing better?
> so much for the milestone....lol, will hung around for a little while longer...




we all have em Caribean.

I missed all the good trades this week to work. made my first on wed night lost 13 pips cuz i got funny tummy closed before it hit my stop then bang went to my limit area.

first trade last night same thing thinking dumb and cut my loss before stop to see it hit my limit. i was banging my head to the desk. I have made the losses back now with extra, just shows u loose the metal aspect and it all goes out the window!


----------



## MARKETWAVES

Bye!, BYE !.......  Euro Bull ? ..............

-------------------------------------------------


----------



## hangseng

So where is the EUR/USD heading?

Will it fail resistance at 15623.6? Or is the bull just too strong?


----------



## professor_frink

hangseng said:


> So where is the EUR/USD heading?
> 
> Will it fail resistance at 15623.6? Or is the bull just too strong?




looks a bit overextended here. Would think that if it doesn't tank then will more than likely head sidewards for a while. Have got a short on from 15 with fairly small size for a bit of a fishing expedition.

** I trade off 1 minute charts mainly so reserve the right to stop and reverse at a moments notice


----------



## hangseng

professor_frink said:


> looks a bit overextended here. Would think that if it doesn't tank then will more than likely head sidewards for a while. Have got a short on from 15 with fairly small size for a bit of a fishing expedition.
> 
> ** I trade off 1 minute charts mainly so reserve the right to stop and reverse at a moments notice




Seems to be pushing the envelope.

Looks like going higher


----------



## professor_frink

hangseng said:


> Seems to be pushing the envelope.
> 
> Looks like going higher




yeah time is almost up for me- if it was going to do it, it would have started by now.


----------



## hangseng

professor_frink said:


> yeah time is almost up for me- if it was going to do it, it would have started by now.




Tested but seems to have failed.

I think it is busted!


----------



## professor_frink

hangseng said:


> Tested but seems to have failed.
> 
> I think it is busted!




always good to see that, and it came about 30 seconds before my time stop was going to kick in and cut it loose. Hard stop above the high now, and I'm just going to let it go.


----------



## hangseng

professor_frink said:


> always good to see that, and it came about 30 seconds before my time stop was going to kick in and cut it loose. Hard stop above the high now, and I'm just going to let it go.




Very unsettled. 

Good to watch though, not playing I just use forex for T/A education. It seems to now want to go much higher and probably will now as the DJIA is looking a little crook.

Will the PPT save the day


----------



## >Apocalypto<

missed most the move this afternoon / night

caught 17 off the thrust, see chart.


----------



## Vondelpark

Hey Apocalypto.,

Seen a few of your posts on Forex Factory, I am trawling thru it trying to learn more about the way the FX market functions and works, attempting to learn more about the way people apply TA and the like.  

Seems a good learning centre there. 

EUR/USD at critical levels?

Seems too much on news wise this week to make anything but some scalping a risky affair.

I noticed from your screen shot you are using some charting software was it?  

I am pretty unfamiliar with trading/charting software for currencies here in Australia as I have been detached from the market for a while.  I am using IG for the moment (I noticed they got panned a bit in another thread I read) but for my simple trading at the moment they have been OK.  I think a 2 pip spread is pretty competitive from what I can determine so cannot complain and the platform seems relatively stable, even if their charting software is what appears to be basic (but I am a novice at it).

Anyway, will be seeing you around no doubt.

Good trading.

VP


----------



## >Apocalypto<

hell of a night.

two lots, 

Lot 1 +10 at TP
Lot 2 +17 at close.

fast and furious! 

total 27


----------



## Vondelpark

Hi App,

Bouncing back strongly today the Euro.  Will wait and see if it can break this 15820-30 area then might go long.

Equity markets getting smashed......again.

You wonder where all the pension fund money is going.....probably into shorting stocks


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Vondelpark said:


> Hey Apocalypto.,
> 
> Seen a few of your posts on Forex Factory, I am trawling thru it trying to learn more about the way the FX market functions and works, attempting to learn more about the way people apply TA and the like.
> 
> Seems a good learning centre there.
> 
> EUR/USD at critical levels?
> 
> Seems too much on news wise this week to make anything but some scalping a risky affair.
> 
> I noticed from your screen shot you are using some charting software was it?
> 
> I am pretty unfamiliar with trading/charting software for currencies here in Australia as I have been detached from the market for a while.  I am using IG for the moment (I noticed they got panned a bit in another thread I read) but for my simple trading at the moment they have been OK.  I think a 2 pip spread is pretty competitive from what I can determine so cannot complain and the platform seems relatively stable, even if their charting software is what appears to be basic (but I am a novice at it).
> 
> Anyway, will be seeing you around no doubt.
> 
> Good trading.
> 
> VP




Hi VP,

I have made a couple posts on FF but most of my trades I post here. Like you I do a lot of reading on FF

Great FX site lots going on and to read. 

I am not a euro predictor I trade off the now. not to concerned of the overall trend just follow my entry's I get of the two methods I use.

I use Meta trader 4 with a combo of indicators that make my system. I am very fussy about what I take only look for trades in a certain hours of the day from london open to 1 hour from US close.

I traded with IG for awhile never had any issuse with trade FX with them. But mate look at a MT4 demo! IT finance charts are sub par!

FX is a great place if that's your thing. I could never go back to stocks.

Post your trades and charts VP only way to learn!

cheers
Apocalypto


----------



## alwaysLearning

I was using a simulation account last night and was trading the EUR/JPY. I saw when it started to get crazy and in just seconds the whole screen went NUTS. I couldn't believe it.

I thought...WOW...this is why FOREX is a tough game. I thought that there was going to be a retracement and so I went long before things went crazy, so I was ok. BUT, before I made my trade I saw a lot of bearish activity. I would have understood if people had said that they were going to go short.

Those who went short would have gotten killed during that spike. I'm starting to think it is a bad idea to trade during times when there could be news but I don't know why the Euro went crazy at that time? There was no news released at that time as far as I'm aware except the ISM Manufacturing Index?


----------



## caribean

alwaysLearning said:


> I was using a simulation account last night and was trading the EUR/JPY. I saw when it started to get crazy and in just seconds the whole screen went NUTS. I couldn't believe it.
> 
> I thought...WOW...this is why FOREX is a tough game. I thought that there was going to be a retracement and so I went long before things went crazy, so I was ok. BUT, before I made my trade I saw a lot of bearish activity. I would have understood if people had said that they were going to go short.
> 
> Those who went short would have gotten killed during that spike. I'm starting to think it is a bad idea to trade during times when there could be news but I don't know why the Euro went crazy at that time? There was no news released at that time as far as I'm aware except the ISM Manufacturing Index?



The ISM man index is good enough reason.....


----------



## Vondelpark

The EURO is desperately trying to bust this resistance area above 158 at the moment.

Methinks some US Data will give it big momentum to do just that......if Trichets comments in 45 mins don't.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> The ISM man index is good enough reason.....




anything most the time is a good enough reason!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Vondelpark said:


> The EURO is desperately trying to bust this resistance area above 158 at the moment.
> 
> Methinks some US Data will give it big momentum to do just that......if Trichets comments in 45 mins don't.




Euro dropping, up move angle under pressure. could see some selling tonight!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Euro dropping, up move angle under pressure. could see some selling tonight!




Euro came back like a rocket 

latish entry on 1 lot +12 fast move very fast! 

cheers


----------



## Vondelpark

Currently 15840 - really want to sell but just can't pull the trigger. 

I think it will break above this resistance and could run.  Mind you it has tested it a couple of times now.

Instead sold the AUD at 9615 looking for a 14 pip scalp back to 9601.

Also getting a little trigger happy to buy some oil at 14080 current levels. bought some earlier at 14113 but luckily trailed my stop loss to B/E, got stopped out but i think 140 is a decent floor.  

Will see how it goes......


----------



## Vondelpark

15874 printed.....will we see 159 tonight???


----------



## alwaysLearning

I see some big selling--what happened??


----------



## tayser

likely that the rate hike was already priced in...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

here some reasons for the action tonight.


7:45am  	EUR 	High Impact Expected Minimum Bid Rate

8:30am 	EUR 	High Impact Expected 	ECB Press Conference	

8:30am 	USD 	High Impact Expected 	Nonfarm Employment Change

8:30am 	USD 	High Impact Expected 	Unemployment Rate

8:30am 	USD 	Medium Impact Expected 	Average Hourly Earnings m/m

8:30am 	USD 	Medium Impact Expected 	Unemployment Claims

that's US time NY I am pretty sure


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tonights trade +13 on a long

profit stopped just before the party came. was very fun to watch. on the other side I am long on a SP500 trade that did the opposite of the euro. funny hey!

what a site to look at, hell of a tumble.


----------



## alwaysLearning

>Apocalypto< said:


> here some reasons for the action tonight.
> 
> 
> 7:45am  	EUR 	High Impact Expected Minimum Bid Rate
> 
> 8:30am 	EUR 	High Impact Expected 	ECB Press Conference
> 
> 8:30am 	USD 	High Impact Expected 	Nonfarm Employment Change
> 
> 8:30am 	USD 	High Impact Expected 	Unemployment Rate
> 
> 8:30am 	USD 	Medium Impact Expected 	Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> 
> 8:30am 	USD 	Medium Impact Expected 	Unemployment Claims
> 
> that's US time NY I am pretty sure




Good thing I'm using a simulation account. Man, I thought I was top **** for making a 50 pip profit and then I stupidly went long again. I then lost 100 odd pips when the EUR/JPY died 

I must look at the times on the calandar and NOT trade when news is released. Or rather I should trade just after the news is released and then go for a quick scalp.


----------



## Vondelpark

Not wrong.

Stayed out of the currencies today after closing out my two poss's on the AUD this morning.

EURO sunk like a bowling ball.  Not sure where too from here, but in the last 60 mins any attempt to go above 1.577 gets whacked back down.

AUD very strong and consolidating around .96.  Might push to .9650 tomorrow.

Off to bed. Hope you all had successful trades.


----------



## alwaysLearning

bought in at 1.57132 (long)

take profit at 1.57309

I'm expecting it to re-trace up to my T/P level by end of tonight.

This is all using my simulation account ofcourse 

What do you guys do about news?

Do you just exit all trades or plan your trades such that it is not during news time?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

alwaysLearning said:


> bought in at 1.57132 (long)
> 
> take profit at 1.57309
> 
> I'm expecting it to re-trace up to my T/P level by end of tonight.
> 
> This is all using my simulation account ofcourse
> 
> What do you guys do about news?
> 
> Do you just exit all trades or plan your trades such that it is not during news time?




Nice trade Alwayz

I see your limit was hit! I never trade  NZ AUS & JAPAN session. Only look to play from Paris open to US close.

But pips are pips well done!

Cheers
Apoca


----------



## wayneL

>Apocalypto< said:


> But pips are pis well done!





I always knew there was a reason I preferred ticks to pips.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> I always knew there was a reason I preferred ticks to pips.




Ha ha Ha saw that and corrected it!

Tonight's first trade is a loss.

 -10 at stop.


----------



## alwaysLearning

>Apocalypto< said:


> Nice trade Alwayz
> 
> I see your limit was hit! I never trade  NZ AUS & JAPAN session. Only look to play from Paris open to US close.
> 
> But pips are pips well done!
> 
> Cheers
> Apoca




I got very close to being filled but just missed out 

Oanda did not fill it 

I am as of now still with that open position at -18.2 pips 

I am still confident of a retrace up so I'm hanging in there.


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> bought in at 1.57132 (long)
> 
> take profit at 1.57309
> 
> I'm expecting it to re-trace up to my T/P level by end of tonight.
> 
> This is all using my simulation account ofcourse
> 
> What do you guys do about news?
> 
> Do you just exit all trades or plan your trades such that it is not during news time?




generally when I'm having a punt on the QLD beer market, I'll only let a trade run through a big news event if I've got a sack full of pips from prior trades in the evening and have got a bit of open profit too play with on the current trade that's running into the news. Otherwise I stand aside and wait for the dust to settle before taking a swing.



>Apocalypto< said:


> Ha ha Ha saw that and corrected it!
> 
> Tonight's first trade is a loss.
> 
> -10 at stop.




Evening banner boy

Why come you trading off the half hourly on a quiet day like today?? IMO if you are going to have a swing at today, it would be better having a go at the 5 minute max, as the chances of a large range day are fairly small. Smaller timeframes for smaller swings is my motto(it's not really, I just made that up, but it sounds pretty good!).

Current view on this one - we are looking at the possibility of a channel bust on the 4hr, though even if we get it going this evening, can't imagine that there will be much follow through with the US taking the day off. Monday could be pretty interesting.

Excuse the chart, it gets a little busy when I get into this kind of timeframe

In the meantime, beer is in order. Hoorah!


----------



## alwaysLearning

i'm working on a new strategy where if I collect 11 pips profit and I'm not very sure if it will continue in the desired direction, I will take profit and exit the trade. I will do that in readyness to bet the other way.

If I am sure that the trade will keep going in the desired direction then I'll leave it alone and collect profit somewhere higher.

I was nearly at my take profit point but I was greedy and wanted it to go higher.


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> generally when I'm having a punt on the QLD beer market, I'll only let a trade run through a big news event if I've got a sack full of pips from prior trades in the evening and have got a bit of open profit too play with on the current trade that's running into the news. Otherwise I stand aside and wait for the dust to settle before taking a swing.
> 
> 
> 
> Evening banner boy
> 
> Why come you trading off the half hourly on a quiet day like today?? IMO if you are going to have a swing at today, it would be better having a go at the 5 minute max, as the chances of a large range day are fairly small. Smaller timeframes for smaller swings is my motto(it's not really, I just made that up, but it sounds pretty good!).
> 
> Current view on this one - we are looking at the possibility of a channel bust on the 4hr, though even if we get it going this evening, can't imagine that there will be much follow through with the US taking the day off. Monday could be pretty interesting.
> 
> Excuse the chart, it gets a little busy when I get into this kind of timeframe
> 
> In the meantime, beer is in order. Hoorah!




I'm just curious but since you are working at the 5 minute time frame, do you encounter much slippage?


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> I'm just curious but since you are working at the 5 minute time frame, do you encounter much slippage?




I generally trade off the 1 minute, and don't have any troubles at all. Most of the time if I'm not filled at my desired price, it's because I've hit it with a market order just as price is changing.


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> I generally trade off the 1 minute, and don't have any troubles at all. Most of the time if I'm not filled at my desired price, it's because I've hit it with a market order just as price is changing.




Sounds good. May I ask which broker you use? I was thinking of eventually going with Oanda or Interactive Brokers. I'm not sure which is better?


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> Sounds good. May I ask which broker you use? I was thinking of eventually going with Oanda or Interactive Brokers. I'm not sure which is better?




I use IB, and have recently been using CMC, and both have been fine for trading. IB is an ECN, which is always preferred, but there FX trading is a little unusual and takes a bit of getting used to. But once you get used to it it's fine.

Haven't used Oanda, don't really know too much about them.

EFX is another one you may want to look at. There are a couple of traders here using them and they seem to be pretty decent, but haven't used them personally.


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> I use IB, and have recently been using CMC, and both have been fine for trading. IB is an ECN, which is always preferred, but there FX trading is a little unusual and takes a bit of getting used to. But once you get used to it it's fine.
> 
> Haven't used Oanda, don't really know too much about them.
> 
> EFX is another one you may want to look at. There are a couple of traders here using them and they seem to be pretty decent, but haven't used them personally.




Thanks for the response professor_frink

I have a link to a PDF that you might find interesting. It has the amounts of the various Forex brokers.(net capital for April)

http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@financialdataforfcms/documents/file/fcmdata0408.pdf

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/financialdataforfcms/index.htm

Oanda is pretty big but not as big as Interactive Brokers. In fact I think Oanda my be the largest dedicated retail Forex broker in the world but I'm totally sure about that.

I'll probably end up going with Interactive Brokers though but practice with a small Oanda account before jumping ship.


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> Thanks for the response professor_firink
> 
> I have a link to a PDF that you might find interesting. It has the amounts of the various Forex brokers.(net capital for April)
> 
> http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@financialdataforfcms/documents/file/fcmdata0408.pdf
> 
> http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/financialdataforfcms/index.htm
> 
> Oanda is pretty big but not as big as Interactive Brokers. In fact I think Oanda my be the largest dedicated retail Forex broker in the world but I'm totally sure about that.
> 
> I'll probably end up going with Interactive Brokers though but practice with a small Oanda account before jumping ship.




Thanks for that

IB do have minimum amounts that you need to be moving to use IDEALPRO(25K or USD equiv I think), so if you want to start off with a small amount to see how you go, then they may not be the best. Once you want to move some decent size then they are great. And you can get access to the currency futures as well withthem which is always good.

If you want to start off trading with a small amount, then you might be better off looking at someone like Oanda who will let you trade a small account.


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> Thanks for that
> 
> IB do have minimum amounts that you need to be moving to use IDEALPRO(25K or USD equiv I think), so if you want to start off with a small amount to see how you go, then they may not be the best. Once you want to move some decent size then they are great. And you can get access to the currency futures as well withthem which is always good.
> 
> If you want to start off trading with a small amount, then you might be better off looking at someone like Oanda who will let you trade a small account.




Thanks professor_frink, that's very helpful advice. I want to start very small at first and then work myself up. I think I'll start with Oanda and then move on to IB when I am ready and able to move bigger amounts 

Firstly I need to find a way to be profitable using a simulation account before I do anything haha


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> Thanks professor_frink, that's very helpful advice. I want to start very small at first and then work myself up. I think I'll start with Oanda and then move on to IB when I am ready and able to move bigger amounts
> 
> Firstly I need to find a way to be profitable using a simulation account before I do anything haha




Don't worry bout that, only a small matter

A free tip for figuring things out(especially if you are new to trading intraday timeframes) is to go and download MT4, open charts on your screen showing every timeframe it has from 1 minute up to an hour, and start watching during the active hours in the evening. After a little while it'll start to make sense


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> Don't worry bout that, only a small matter
> 
> A free tip for figuring things out(especially if you are new to trading intraday timeframes) is to go and download MT4, open charts on your screen showing every timeframe it has from 1 minute up to an hour, and start watching during the active hours in the evening. After a little while it'll start to make sense




Thanks for the suggestion, I'll do that 

I think I'm getting obsessed with Forex trading now. I really love this stuff. (Can't stop thinking about it)


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> Thanks for the suggestion, I'll do that
> 
> I think I'm getting obsessed with Forex trading now. I really love this stuff. (Can't stop thinking about it)




all good! A bit of an unhealthy obsession isn't a bad thing


----------



## >Apocalypto<

2nd trade tonight.

+11 on another short. +1 for the night 

Alwayz

Oanda did not fill u? I trade with them have not had any problems. I suggest you call them as the price hit 20-21 on my MT4 demo I am sure there spread would have hit you. I have used GFT to trade euro tonight so not sure on Oandas prices.

just checked GFT they had a high of 15726 so not what happened there u should contact them. what high did they show? and the spread at the time. I think the ask/sell price would have had to hit 17219 to fill u. 

what was there spread during your trade?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> generally when I'm having a punt on the QLD beer market, I'll only let a trade run through a big news event if I've got a sack full of pips from prior trades in the evening and have got a bit of open profit too play with on the current trade that's running into the news. Otherwise I stand aside and wait for the dust to settle before taking a swing.
> 
> 
> 
> Evening banner boy
> 
> Why come you trading off the half hourly on a quiet day like today?? IMO if you are going to have a swing at today, it would be better having a go at the 5 minute max, as the chances of a large range day are fairly small. Smaller timeframes for smaller swings is my motto(it's not really, I just made that up, but it sounds pretty good!).
> 
> Current view on this one - we are looking at the possibility of a channel bust on the 4hr, though even if we get it going this evening, can't imagine that there will be much follow through with the US taking the day off. Monday could be pretty interesting.
> 
> Excuse the chart, it gets a little busy when I get into this kind of timeframe
> 
> In the meantime, beer is in order. Hoorah!




Prof,

I only use that chart set up on that time frame, as it's my method. I was using a 15min but false trades were cutting me to hell.

with my method i either win or lose don't complain as long as my winners out number my losers.

Sure tonight is flat but if i get a entry I will take it. I think I am done for the night. Liquidity will just worsen as we move into US session.

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

looking at a different system i use to trade. 1 hour based. there could be a rally into the new week. I will be looking to go long, if the entry comes along. 

1st target 15766 

sorry can't post a chart as this system is not mine. 

Cheers


----------



## alwaysLearning

>Apocalypto< said:


> 2nd trade tonight.
> 
> +11 on another short. +1 for the night
> 
> Alwayz
> 
> Oanda did not fill u? I trade with them have not had any problems. I suggest you call them as the price hit 20-21 on my MT4 demo I am sure there spread would have hit you. I have used GFT to trade euro tonight so not sure on Oandas prices.
> 
> just checked GFT they had a high of 15726 so not what happened there u should contact them. what high did they show? and the spread at the time. I think the ask/sell price would have had to hit 17219 to fill u.
> 
> what was there spread during your trade?




Well Oanda did not fill me because on the chart it did not reach my take profit level. The high on my chart for the day is 1.57272

I think Oanda's spread for EUR/USD is usually 1pip.

So yeah, maybe there is a difference between your MT4 demo and Oanda?

Mind you I am using the Oanda demo (simulation) trading account and not a live trading account. I have never traded Forex live at any stage.

I won't be trading live until I can be sure that I have positive expectency and a consistant trading method in general. It sure is fun learnin though


----------



## >Apocalypto<

alwaysLearning said:


> Well Oanda did not fill me because on the chart it did not reach my take profit level. The high on my chart for the day is 1.57272
> 
> I think Oanda's spread for EUR/USD is usually 1pip.
> 
> So yeah, maybe there is a difference between your MT4 demo and Oanda?
> 
> Mind you I am using the Oanda demo (simulation) trading account and not a live trading account. I have never traded Forex live at any stage.
> 
> I won't be trading live until I can be sure that I have positive expectency and a consistant trading method in general. It sure is fun learnin though




I made a mistake I thought you wrote 15719 but your price was 15727  

small rally building not sure yet if it's going to be anything more then a counter trend.

see what happens. still feel bullish for next week.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

long the eur/usd 

ent 1.5691

slop  1.5648
limit  1.5754

can't post a chart as a method I am using is created by my mate.

 Good Trading
>Apocalypto<


----------



## professor_frink

>Apocalypto< said:


> Prof,
> 
> I only use that chart set up on that time frame, as it's my method. I was using a 15min but false trades were cutting me to hell.
> 
> with my method i either win or lose don't complain as long as my winners out number my losers.
> 
> Sure tonight is flat but if i get a entry I will take it. I think I am done for the night. Liquidity will just worsen as we move into US session.
> 
> Cheers




all good mate, just thought I'd throw my  into the mix

If you don't mind me asking, how many trades a day do you do trading off of that timeframe? I find it very hard to sit down trade off of those higher timeframes exclusively, probably has a lot to do with my short attention span!

I'm much happier trading the shorter wiggles within the bigger swings with a view to holding for longer if I manage to catch a major turning point. Well that's what I try to do anyway

Good luck with your long banner boy, and don't spend that pip all at once


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> all good! A bit of an unhealthy obsession isn't a bad thing




most definitely


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> all good mate, just thought I'd throw my  into the mix
> 
> If you don't mind me asking, how many trades a day do you do trading off of that timeframe? I find it very hard to sit down trade off of those higher timeframes exclusively, probably has a lot to do with my short attention span!
> 
> I'm much happier trading the shorter wiggles within the bigger swings with a view to holding for longer if I manage to catch a major turning point. Well that's what I try to do anyway
> 
> Good luck with your long banner boy, and don't spend that pip all at once




you're very welcome Prof. I always enjoy your feed back and your posts mate!

I mainly focus on another method to trade on 1 hour. this was developed and taught to me by Wavepicker. that's the main system i am learning now.

My method i post.

I may get 1 trade or 5 trades a day or none depends on the market mate. I am picky as hell I only use two - three patterns to make a entry off on the MACD plus trend has to be in line and Pab sar has to be in agreement with the trend. Price has to be right side of nom line in line with the trend. Heiken Ashi indicators determine the trend and direction I will trade.

I watch the chart and tv same time so each time half a hour is about up i look at the chart. I only trade from paris open to uS close. due to work I can only trade from 6:30pm to 11:30pm on this method. I gave real short term stuff a go but I suck. I have been developing this method since March. It's capable of give 10-30 pips a day on average which is great but I can't spend that much time watching it due to work. it's a bit of fun and it's working so I am happy.  

I also look for small wiggles mate, most trades will last 3-15 min as soon as I get 10-12 pips i am out of lot 1 at limit lot 2 goes to break even and I let it go . if i am stopped I am stopped. I adjust my stop forward as I get more profit up. it's the second trades that cover my losers, that's why I trade two lots so I can average 10-20 a day in theory if I did it full time. really this is 30min scalping.

each to there own as I said I spent a month on 15 min but I could not make the same win loss ratio as i had on 30min, so i stopped 15.

If you can make in on 1m 5m great stuff, trade well!

another member and I had a little run in. I was called me Banner boy in a exchange.  I had Alpari as my sig when I traded with em. I liked it so i thought I would use it.

o yeh that 1 pip was great! I will try not to ; )

Peace Proff


----------



## alwaysLearning

USD/JPY
I went short at 106.696
take profit at 106.596

AUD/USD
I went Long at 0.96386
take profit at 0.96486

EUR/USD
I went long at 1.57027
take profit at 1.57100

EUR/JPY
I went long at 167.400
take profit at 167.500

I am currently -77 pips at the moment but expect them to retrace into profit


----------



## professor_frink

>Apocalypto< said:


> you're very welcome Prof. I always enjoy your feed back and your posts mate!
> 
> I mainly focus on another method to trade on 1 hour. this was developed and taught to me by Wavepicker. that's the main system i am learning now.
> 
> My method i post.
> 
> I may get 1 trade or 5 trades a day or none depends on the market mate. I am picky as hell I only use two - three patterns to make a entry off on the MACD plus trend has to be in line and Pab sar has to be in agreement with the trend. Price has to be right side of nom line in line with the trend. Heiken Ashi indicators determine the trend and direction I will trade.
> 
> I watch the chart and tv same time so each time half a hour is about up i look at the chart. I only trade from paris open to uS close. due to work I can only trade from 6:30pm to 11:30pm on this method. I gave real short term stuff a go but I suck. I have been developing this method since March. It's capable of give 10-30 pips a day on average which is great but I can't spend that much time watching it due to work. it's a bit of fun and it's working so I am happy.
> 
> I also look for small wiggles mate, most trades will last 3-15 min as soon as I get 10-12 pips i am out of lot 1 at limit lot 2 goes to break even and I let it go . if i am stopped I am stopped. I adjust my stop forward as I get more profit up. it's the second trades that cover my losers, that's why I trade two lots so I can average 10-20 a day in theory if I did it full time. really this is 30min scalping.
> 
> each to there own as I said I spent a month on 15 min but I could not make the same win loss ratio as i had on 30min, so i stopped 15.
> 
> If you can make in on 1m 5m great stuff, trade well!
> 
> another member and I had a little run in. I was called me Banner boy in a exchange.  I had Alpari as my sig when I traded with em. I liked it so i thought I would use it.
> 
> o yeh that 1 pip was great! I will try not to ; )
> 
> Peace Proff




thanks for the answer BB, appreciated. Gotta focus on what works for you and what your comfortable with



alwaysLearning said:


> USD/JPY
> I went short at 106.696
> take profit at 106.596
> 
> AUD/USD
> I went Long at 0.96386
> take profit at 0.96486
> 
> EUR/USD
> I went long at 1.57027
> take profit at 1.57100
> 
> EUR/JPY
> I went long at 167.341
> take profit at 167.351
> 
> I am currently -81 pips at the moment but expect them to retrace into profit




AL,


If you don't mind me asking, why long on the EURUSD this morning(I'll ask about that one as it's pretty well the only pair I trade these days- not really following the others closely). What timeframe are you looking at here?


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> thanks for the answer BB, appreciated. Gotta focus on what works for you and what your comfortable with
> 
> 
> 
> AL,
> 
> 
> If you don't mind me asking, why long on the EURUSD this morning(I'll ask about that one as it's pretty well the only pair I trade these days- not really following the others closely). What timeframe are you looking at here?




Well, bear in mind that I'm using a demo account 

Ok here is what happened lol, I had two open positions with the EUR/USD from last week. I expected it to retrace up to the 1.57071 some time today or by tomorrow.

But the thing is at the moment I would never have been long If I did not have those open positions, I would have waited until about 10 or 10:30am and gone short.

 But I'm very confident of that retracement level back up to the 1.57071 level so I am staying long.

I have made a mental note to close all positions before I go to sleep lol (this was a dumb idea of mine to keep open positions over the weekend).

I could have just closed my positions today for a 20pip loss but at that time japan had not opened and liquidity was low so I figured that anything was possible once japan opened.

edit: The time frame I use varies. I go from daily all the way to 1 minute to see what is going on. But I like to operate at the 3hr or 1hr time frame mainly.


----------



## professor_frink

alwaysLearning said:


> Well, bear in mind that I'm using a demo account
> 
> Ok here is what happened lol, I had two open positions with the EUR/USD from last week. I expected it to retrace up to the 1.57071 some time today or by tomorrow.
> 
> But the thing is at the moment I would never have been long I did not have those open positions, I would have waited until about 10 or 10:30am and gone short.
> 
> But I'm very confident of that retracement level back up to the 1.57071 level so I am staying long.
> 
> I have made a mental note to close all positions before I go to sleep lol (this was a dumb idea of mine to keep open positions over the weekend).
> 
> I could have just closed my positions today for a 20pip loss but at that time japan had not opened and liquidity was low so I figured that anything was possible once japan opened.




Demo, or no demo, if you want to learn how to trade then you should take it seriously(well at least a bit!). If you just muck around and say "it's only a demo account, it doesn't matter" then all you are doing is playing in a pretend casino, which IMO is not really fun at all. Gambling is to be done with real money at a real casino with REAL beer


So you've entered at 5702 looking to make less than 10 pips, and you've let it run 70 pips against you??

Holy bad R:R ratio batman!

So where do you admit defeat on this one?


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Gambling is to be done with real money at a real casino with REAL beer




Sign of a true trader.


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> Demo, or no demo, if you want to learn how to trade then you should take it seriously(well at least a bit!). If you just muck around and say "it's only a demo account, it doesn't matter" then all you are doing is playing in a pretend casino, which IMO is not really fun at all. Gambling is to be done with real money at a real casino with REAL beer
> 
> 
> So you've entered at 5702 looking to make less than 10 pips, and you've let it run 70 pips against you??
> 
> Holy bad R:R ratio batman!
> 
> So where do you admit defeat on this one?




Thanks for the response Professor_frink, you are correct. I'm still working out those details. At the moment I'm trying to build a basic edge from pure reading of the charts. Once I have an idea about my wins vs losses, I will then look to fine tune and build a money management strategy to enhance that edge. But i'm at the stage where I'm looking to see what the market does. -60pips is not good. 

As mentioned earlier I could have closed that open position from the weekend at -20 pips and then gone short and and I'd now be +20pips. (This further emphasises your point).

lol, my answer is that I'm working on it (totally agree with you)


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> Sign of a true trader.




which part, the boozing or gambling? Or both?



alwaysLearning said:


> Thanks for the response Professor_frink, you are correct. I'm still working out those details. At the moment I'm trying to build a basic edge from pure reading of the charts. Once I have an idea about my wins vs losses, I will then look to fine tune and build a money management strategy to enhance that edge. But i'm at the stage where I'm looking to see what the market does. -60pips is not good.
> 
> As mentioned earlier I could have closed that open position from the weekend at -20 pips and then gone short and and I'd now be +20pips. (This further emphasises your point).
> 
> lol, my answer is that I'm working on it (totally agree with you)




that's alright glad to help.

In regards to chart reading, did you see the chart I posted on Friday night that was covered in pointless drawings,err, "technical" analysis??

The uptrend that peaked on the 3rd, had turned into a downtrend by this morning - pretty well every timeframe from 1 minute to the daily was saying get short if your not already. IMO when you are learning, you should try and trade in sympathy with larger timeframe trends. You can still get chopped up trading this way, but are less likely to step in front of a steam train that is trying to decimate anything in it's path.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> which part, the boozing or gambling? Or both?




BOTH!


----------



## alwaysLearning

professor_frink said:


> which part, the boozing or gambling? Or both?
> 
> 
> 
> that's alright glad to help.
> 
> In regards to chart reading, did you see the chart I posted on Friday night that was covered in pointless drawings,err, "technical" analysis??
> 
> The uptrend that peaked on the 3rd, had turned into a downtrend by this morning - pretty well every timeframe from 1 minute to the daily was saying get short if your not already. IMO when you are learning, you should try and trade in sympathy with larger timeframe trends. You can still get chopped up trading this way, but are less likely to step in front of a steam train that is trying to decimate anything in it's path.




Yeah you are right. I realise the error now so I'm looking to learn from it and improve


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> BOTH!




Now the real question has to be asked, which comes first, the drunken gambling streak or the mad hectic daytrading



alwaysLearning said:


> Yeah you are right. I realise the error now so I'm looking to learn from it and improve



If you're anything like me you'll do it quite a few more times before you finally get it. Just keep plugging away!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tonights trade, long on the euro.

long trigger given on MACD inline with trend rules.

LOT1 +11
LOT2 +7

Missed the first rally today during work.

Nice counter punch to the selling nice and fast. Most likely that's it for me tonight.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Tonights trades.

great rally on the eurogal.

keep going way passed my exit but a productive night +28 in two trades.

Good trading


----------



## caribean

I watched the price action last night thinking, this thing is setting up for a long on the US news release, let it go, went back about 40 min's before the news to see Jpy droping like a stone.
I picked up some points on the run up on the EUR, thinking it's going to reach target prior to news, and then get whacked short after....which of course didn't happen....lol
Still managed to finnish positive for the night.
My target  prior to news was around the 1.5860 area.....


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Some selling could be coming.*

Based on what I can see on the chart and what another method has showed me the Price has reached a extreme and could be due to come down.

see what Monday brings but a double top now off the back of Oil news. Oil is also on a near vertical thrust and more likely to give some back then rally another 400 off the back of the current push.

Heiken Ashi trend has widened and is contracting lower high on MACD showing divergence on the new push.

Need to see some red on HA on price but a warning is there. I shorted it this morning but the second thrust got me -40 pips. Not to worried as I think I make it back plus more Monday Tuesday this week. Target 1.5770 - 1.5790. if reached see what happens from there.


----------



## caribean

1.6000 ,April's high is very close, but will see what the intraday action brings on Monday.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Chart says it all.................

What a fall!*


----------



## theasxgorilla

>Apocalypto< said:


> *Chart says it all.................
> 
> What a fall!*




This one is a strengthening of the USD, as opposed to weakness in the AUD.  AUD has actually strengthened against the EUR these last couple of days and bounced against the GBP during today's session.

Anyone know what triggered this? I haven't been watching USD news.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

theasxgorilla said:


> This one is a strengthening of the USD, as opposed to weakness in the AUD.  AUD has actually strengthened against the EUR these last couple of days and bounced against the GBP during today's session.
> 
> Anyone know what triggered this? I haven't been watching USD news.




It got kicking other night, some news last night jobless claims. but USD as u pointed out has been moving up all week. have a look at daily chart, Broken out!

sure AUD strengthened against eur but not to usd mate the RBA made sure of that. our rates to fall and i think US rates will rise slowly this could be a killer for skippy to usd.

I only trade eur/usd I have never seen such selling in a day. great to be trading it and watching it!

cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla

>Apocalypto< said:


> sure AUD strengthened against eur but not to usd mate the RBA made sure of that. *our rates to fall and i think US rates will rise slowly* this could be a killer for skippy to usd.




I agree, this is what _ought_ to happen.


----------



## BentRod

> great to be trading it and watching it!




Couldn't agree more Joe, exciting stuff.

Huge moves for the USD all round


----------



## refined silver

BentRod said:


> Couldn't agree more Joe, exciting stuff.
> 
> Huge moves for the USD all round




Check the long term downtrend line on the USDX. We've about hit it. Could be curtains now for the USD


----------



## BentRod

Can you post the Weekly Chart?

I don't get that data EOD.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> Can you post the Weekly Chart?
> 
> I don't get that data EOD.
> 
> Cheers




Yeah, good idea as i haven't seen the dollar index since i canceled my data subscription.

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## BentRod

Here is the Daily version of EURUSD

Big move on the daily chart.


----------



## CanOz

Good grief BR, thats the longest bar on the chart....Once it cleared the bottom of that range it just had to test 1.50 didn't it!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:


> Good grief BR, thats the longest bar on the chart....Once it cleared the bottom of that range it just had to test 1.50 didn't it!
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> CanOz



Will that support around $1.49 ish hold up?

There's a couple of charts hitting downward support at thement. We're either going to bounce, or have quite a significant plunge. 

I'm not ready for down....


----------



## BentRod

I favour a move down to 1.45 to form some sort of head and shoulder type formation.  If it makes it to 1.45 then I can see 143.63 threatened which will change the main move of the year.

Thats just a guess. My stops are in place way up there with plenty of wiggle room-  if it works it should pay off.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting view on the dollar rally.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9FT.fPxbjF0&refer=home


----------



## refined silver

BentRod said:


> Can you post the Weekly Chart?
> 
> I don't get that data EOD.
> 
> Cheers




Sorry have been away for while.

This is the US dollar index - the USD vs a basket of 13 currencies on a 2.5yr chart.


----------



## Kauri

Hi carribean..
How I'm running on the Euro at the moment... 

more jawboning from the ECB
ECB"s Bonello notes in his recent comments that "market expectations of no change to rates this year is largely in line with the ECB"s thinking". The ECB"s Weber has also taken a similar stance in his latest comments. He suggests talk of rate cuts is "premature".

ECB"s Bini Smaghi notes that cutting Euro Zone rates would "foment" inflation and that the July hike was aimed at bringing down inflation below the ECB"s 2% target level in "around 18 months".


Cheers
...........kauri


----------



## el caballo

Hey Kauri,

Do you actually trade off that type of "fundamental" information - I perceived you more as a strictly tehnical trader?


----------



## caribean

Good TL break, if it stays on these high's it could be a good reversal tomorrow


----------



## Kauri

whilst the pnters dijest the durables and Lockhart... I'll slip the stop up metinks..

now off for a bit of Turkish Deelight..   
Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Wealth Wizard

Any one catch the USD/JPY?


----------



## Kauri

a good sized 14550-14950 DNT is being aggressively defended by an Asian mob currently... makes life interesting..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

looking for a good spot to add to my shorts...   EUR 1Bln 1.4500 strikes, due to roll off at the NY cut-off at 14:00 GMT , may be a good spot if they attract . rebounds back into the 1.45"s are better levels to sell  into.. the medium-term risk is skewed to the downside with many eyeing a fall back towards the 1.40 level should the Euro continue to struggle for traction.

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## tayser

Everyone's just dumping EUR...


----------



## BentRod

everyones dumping everything


----------



## BentRod

BentRod said:


> I favour a move down to 1.45 to form some sort of head and shoulder type formation.  If it makes it to 1.45 then I can see 143.63 threatened which will change the main move of the year.
> 
> Thats just a guess. My stops are in place way up there with plenty of wiggle room-  if it works it should pay off.




143.63 has been breached, Euro is now down for the year.

Next target is monthly support from 2002 @ 140ish.


----------



## BentRod

Starting to feel that trendline is going to hold


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Starting to feel that trendline is going to hold





China holds up to 400 BLN USD in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt and CICC Chief Economist Ha Jiming said in a report Thursday "the crisis has made Chinese officials realize it"s a bad idea to put all their eggs in one basket," before adding "this will likely lead to greater diversification of foreign exchange reserve investments." The CICC report said that China is likely to reduce the portion of reserves in dollar assets from the current 60 percent by purchasing more non-dollar assets with new reserves...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

EUR/USD opened New York around 1.4130, traded a vicious 1.4088/ 1.4230/ 1.4160/ 1.4225/ 1.4165 whipsaw, then flat-lined around 1.4175/ 
1.4215 for hours until the last two hours of trading, then took off like a 
rocket. Conventional wisdom would normally suggest US equities recouped and EUR/JPY took off but no, this was a general USD bail out. USD/JPY collapsed, *and it seems that Asian accounts are scrambling out of all long USD positions ahead of the Tokyo open*.*??* EUR/USD hit 1.4320 around where it closed with US equities at session lows, the Dow -4.41%. _Rumours of a 50bp Fed rate cut gathering credence_.
    The short squeeze on EUR/USD lasted into the New York market close and then as dramatically about faced; with the more logical subsequent drop in EUR/JPY coming after US equity markets closed at their lows. EUR/JPY up until 4.00PM held steady, the 150.20 close benign, however subsequent action has seen both the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY collapse. News that the Fed have asked JPM and Goldman to lead a $70-75bn liquidity facility for AIG"s assets failed to help. Traders are shell shocked and _very nervous about ensuing Japanese equity trading. _

_Cheers_
_............Kauri


_


----------



## CanOz

Kauri, are you watching the BBand squeeze on the EURUSD? Maybe 1.42 won't hold for long?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> Kauri, are you watching the BBand squeeze on the EURUSD? Maybe 1.42 won't hold for long?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




  Cannie,
            missed that one...  one of my kaleidescope vindicators is actually based on a Boll squeeze..     ... Talk of Dollar buy orders doing the rounds, with funding being shipped back to good hole USofA to fund the holes appearing in balance sheets. EUR/USD has fallen into the 1.41"s amid the return of the Dollar bid-tone, with standing support into the 1.4180"s initially attempting to limit the decline.

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Kauri said:


> Cannie,
> missed that one...  one of my kaleidescope vindicators is actually based on a Boll squeeze..     ... Talk of Dollar buy orders doing the rounds, with funding being shipped back to good hole USofA to fund the holes appearing in balance sheets. EUR/USD has fallen into the 1.41"s amid the return of the Dollar bid-tone, with standing support into the 1.4180"s initially attempting to limit the decline.
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




1.4180 was were i got in yesterday with a stop below the low at 1.405 ish.

You think the USFed will cut tonight?

CanOz


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> 1.4180 was were i got in yesterday with a stop below the low at 1.405 ish.
> 
> You think the USFed will cut tonight?
> 
> CanOz




  When the Fed move I don't think  ... opinion only..  that 1/4 will be enough..  the rumours out there are flying tick and fast... *AIG is the biggun that everyone seems for some reason tinks makes no differce*... for me it is the potential elephant...
London dealers talk of reserve manager support for the Euro emerging as EUR/USD was sold into the 1.4160"s. This helped base the latest dip into 1.4164 but further stabs at the downside cannot be ruled out in the near-term, as the Dollar is likely to remain in demand into early North American trading. Look for support to trail into 1.4150, with more support seen layered into the low- 1.41"s.

  I'm out of everyting currently... I have a feeling the good hole USofA is going to pull another rabbitt out of its pawned hat..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Kauri. Lots of talk now about a 50 basis point cut...i 'don't think i'll be awake for it anyway.

Anyway the Euro's bounced nicely off the TL.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> Thanks Kauri. Lots of talk now about a 50 basis point cut...i 'don't think i'll be awake for it anyway.
> 
> Anyway the Euro's bounced nicely off the TL.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




spurious talk has turned back to the potential for a 50bps move from the Fed. Elsewhere, US stock market futures have hit session lows amid fresh talk of M&A in the US banking sector. Should EUR/USD snap higher then the 1.43"s may loom with the overnight highs into 1.4320/25 then coming back onto the radar.

and for UBS.. (read EU banking??) UBS shares are now down 20%, with the latest Goldman report accelerating the fall. The embattled Swiss name is yet to announce the latest write-downs that the market is rife with speculation of, so some degree of a bounce could loom for the banking giant.


cheers and have a good nite
.............SteveH


----------



## CanOz

Getting a spike on the EUR now.....its about time.


----------



## theasxgorilla

CanOz said:


> Getting a spike on the EUR now.....its about time.




Yep, up against most already...up a lot against the AUD.


----------



## Kauri

The EUR/USD has fallen to as low as 1.4530 after US lawmakers finally agreed to a bailout plan that could be voted upon as early as later today. The USD has moved broadly higher as a result of the agreement by US lawmakers after a week of haggling over various issues related to the plan weighed on the greenback. The news coincides with weekend reports saying that European authorities were desperately trying to rescue Fortis Bank by arranging a takeover, break up or nationalization of the Dutch/Belgium banking giant.
The two bits of breaking news illuminates to the market that financial institution distress is not a US-only dilemma and there is a perception that the US has more tools at their disposal to deal with the problems than the current European framework can offer.

Cheers
..........Kauri

PS....
Reuters has reported that the crisis talks held this weekend regarding the fate of troubled Fortis Bank has resulted in the Dutch government buying a 49% stake in Fortis Holdings Netherlands, the Luxembourg government buying a 49% stake in Fortis Banque Luxembourg and the Belgium government buying a 49% stake in Fortis.


----------



## Kauri

and now one of those funny little short an coily things may be developing??

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and now one of those funny little short an coily things may be developing??
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




just love them short an coilys... they nearly always point to an interesting outcome..

Cheers
..............kauri

 According to the Belgian FinMin, Didier Reynders, there are several potential purchasers for ABN AMRO. Talking to Belgian radio the FinMin notes he wants the ABN AMRO sale to take place "as soon as possible".  also report that ING is to buy the Dutch assets of ABN owned by Fortis. . .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> just love them short an coilys... they nearly always point to an interesting outcome..
> 
> Cheers
> ..............kauri
> 
> According to the Belgian FinMin, Didier Reynders, there are several potential purchasers for ABN AMRO. Talking to Belgian radio the FinMin notes he wants the ABN AMRO sale to take place "as soon as possible". also report that ING is to buy the Dutch assets of ABN owned by Fortis. . .





German banks are now under the microscope, with dealers talking of the "suspension" of various banking stocks. Nothing is yet confirmed but following the problems at Hypo Real Estate Group many will be wary over further credit quake related fallout.
    According to the Bundesbank statement emergency funding provided to Germany"s Hypo Real Estate should help the group function adequately. In the joint statement with German financial watchdog, BaFin, it noted "The problems of Hypo Real Estate Group, triggered by distortions in international financial markets, have been solved by a consortium from the German financial sector".

the latest ECB data notes EUR 28Bln deposited at the ECB, with EUR 6.7Bln borrowed. This is a key figure in attributing the problems in the money markets. Institutions would rather lend to the ECB at 2%, than lend into a market plagued with counter party risks

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## IFocus

Kauri said:


> German banks are now under the microscope, with dealers talking of the "suspension" of various banking stocks. Nothing is yet confirmed but following the problems at Hypo Real Estate Group many will be wary over further credit quake related fallout.
> According to the Bundesbank statement emergency funding provided to Germany"s Hypo Real Estate should help the group function adequately. In the joint statement with German financial watchdog, BaFin, it noted "The problems of Hypo Real Estate Group, triggered by distortions in international financial markets, have been solved by a consortium from the German financial sector".
> 
> the latest ECB data notes EUR 28Bln deposited at the ECB, with EUR 6.7Bln borrowed. This is a key figure in attributing the problems in the money markets. Institutions would rather lend to the ECB at 2%, than lend into a market plagued with counter party risks
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




On a roll Kauri.....


----------



## Kauri

IFocus said:


> On a roll Kauri.....





The fall in the EUR/USD over the past 24 hours was the biggest one-day drop since 1995 and sentiment towards the EUR/USD has turned decidedly bearish. The fall in the EUR/USD accelerated at the quarter-end fix that saw a huge demand for US dollars, which analysts say was due to larger than normal redemption by nervous US investors. This suggests that the US investor "repatriation" theme is at play and is unlikely to dissipate just because the quarter just ended. 
The move by Ireland to guarantee depositors and holders of debt to protect their six leading banks as evidence that the problems/stresses in the EZ financial sector have to be dealt with individually/piecemeal. This is due to the lack of a EZ framework to cope with the broader problems, as the US can. Spain will probably follow Irelands lead soon metinks...

Looking for a good spot to rehitch my shorts...

Cheers
...........Kauri

EUR/USD-Web$N-01/10/0801:26OrderSpot FX EUR/USD-System$+ 2 14074- -- Position(s) closed:01/10/08
01:05S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14074N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0823:59S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14221N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0823:26S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14260N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0823:18S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14317N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0821:05OrderSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14358.5N- Position opened:


----------



## Kauri

Just an idle E/W thought... or five..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The growing bearish sentiment towards the EUR will intensify if and when the US bailout package is passed. There is a view that the Europeans can not get together and agree on an emergency package as the US is able to do and this view has been given credibility this week after the Irish government unilaterally guaranteed depositors and bond holders for six Irish financial institutions on Tuesday and the French and German authorities publicly disagreed on the need for a European rescue package yesterday. There is fury within the EU at the Irish for their move to shore up the Irish banks as it is seen drawing depositors and investors into the Irish banks and away from other banks in Europe at a time when deposit retention is paramount to stability. Who said the Irish weren't smart...
      The drama in Europe has reignited "Eurosepticism", which could be extremely EUR-negative in these untried times The US Senate will apparently start voting on the revised rescue package shortly.  I'm set.. hopefully on the right side..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Trade triggered... now to see if the Senate passes a solid motion...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

An FT article that came out earlier today is lending to the building EUR-bearish case. The article states that the EZ is heading for a deeper recession than the US due to the authorities lacking the flexibility to react to the worsening economic situation in the EZ. The FT says that European business leaders are joining investors in urging the ECB to abandon its focus on inflation and instead concentrate on "staving off a prolonged recession". An unnamed senior EZ policy maker is quoted in the article as saying: "The ECB has to focus on inflation for a whole host of political and historical reasons. But it does mean   irony of ironies   that the US economy is likely to come out of this quicker than we are. And their all-round flexibility compared with Europe makes that all the more likely too." 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Still jittery over possible more bank failures in the Euro region and given the lack of any one supra-national entity to deal with a full-blown banking crisis as is the case in the US. Dealers also note that another hawkish statement from the ECB tonight would be tantamount to Emperor Nero playing the violin whilst Rome burned, unfazed by the current financial market turmoil. Not many expect the ECB to move to cut interest rates tonight but some wording acknowledging the gravity of the credit market situation would go a long way into restoring some measure of confidence in the European banking system. As it stands, the ECB is the only supra-national entity that could coordinate an US- style rescue should it become necessary with national governments bickering over policy in this regard.


 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## IFocus

Train going south Kauri hope you still have a ticket......


----------



## Kauri

IFocus said:


> Train going south Kauri hope you still have a ticket......




  I'm on the Eurostar... slipping through the chunnell... no reason to get off...
the red line is my stop... still intact..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Thats a clear break of that monthly TL that held so well too.

Be interesting to see where we go now.

I'm still on board from much higher aswell.


----------



## IFocus

Nice work guys 

Kauri what time frame is your chart?


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Thats a clear break of that monthly TL that held so well too.
> 
> Be interesting to see where we go now.
> 
> I'm still on board from much higher aswell.




predictably  fighting the low from three weeks odd ago... metinks...   

 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> predictably fighting the low from three weeks odd ago... metinks...




It might even form a Budgie Man special on 5M....will be watching closely

Ifocus...The first chart was 15M.


----------



## IFocus

Thanks Bentrod my 15min from IB into AB is quite different from Kauri's

Here comes the retest

.


----------



## BentRod

Actually sorry, looks like it was 30m


----------



## IFocus

30 min 


.


----------



## Kauri

Long-term trend support gives out at 1.3925 as early European action adds weight to the "Sell EUR" mentality. The U.S are seen edging closer to large scale financial assistance but Europe is experiencing in-fighting (German- French) or critizing those (Irish) who try and take a proactive stance towards the credit crisis. 
    At present it is open season on the EUR with the crosses (even EUR/GBP) lower and spot crashing through stops at 1.3950 and looking at larger selling interest under 1.3900. Europe needs a cohesive stance toward the ills that are plaguing the financial markets and as has been the case in the past dragging one"s feet will ultimately be punished by events and the markets. The ECB meets today any hint of hawkishness will get stamped upon by the market.
 139 oppie barriers in play... I'm out at the moment... will look to reload later if Tricky Trichie plays...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus

Aahhh keep clicking box's etc and got a similar chart 30 min it is


.


----------



## Kauri

IFocus said:


> Nice work guys
> 
> Kauri what time frame is your chart?




1800 secs...    

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## IFocus

Kauri said:


> 1800 secs...
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Thanks Kauri


----------



## Kauri

a bit of a ledge developing... and methinks I might have spotted a Hiatus Hernia pattern popping up ...
everyone is probably set now and waiting for Trickies talk...

 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> a bit of a ledge developing... and methinks I might have spotted a Hiatus Hernia pattern popping up ...
> everyone is probably set now and waiting for Trickies talk...
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  in on the Hiatus Hernia... a bit early for Trickie butt...
  possibly a bit of volatility prior to the press talk.. 

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Wealth Wizard

Still short? think it will break double bottom?


----------



## BentRod

> Still short?




Yeah from 155ish .:



> think it will break double bottom?




The odds favour it breaking that's all I know.


----------



## Wealth Wizard

hopefully the retrace will settle at 61.8 and we can get on with it!


----------



## Kauri

Wealth Wizard said:


> hopefully the retrace will settle at 61.8 and we can get on with it!




  all hinges on Trickie at 1230... he will probably pull his head out of the sand and talk the Euro up...  also...

Greece looks like it is taking a play out of the Irish textbook, with its Finance Minister offering a blanket guarantee to depositors.  Raising the insurance on deposits from Eur20k to Eur30k was already being talked about, but this latest move will apparently cover any deposit regardless of size.    While this should theoretically calm strains within the Greek banking system, it raises a number of thorny longer term questions just as in the case of the Irish scheme.  
The two biggies start with the European Commission"s competition committee, which shouldn"t like arbitrary decisions by member states to fully back all deposits at national banks but exclude foreign banks which are still operating within the EU (non-Greek and non-Irish banks suffering without 
the unlimited backing of government lines etc).
    Then there is the question of what would happen if public funds are actually needed down the road; presumably that will balloon national deficits, which would threaten participation under the Maastricht Treaty.  At the least, what Greece spur of the moment decision does is to up the odds of some type of Europe-wide bank bailout plan as speculated for discussion this weekend.  But it also raises questions over the future of the Euro itself, and spreads between government funding and bank funding within selected countries.


Federal Reserve officials are weighing further interest rate cuts, even if Congress passes the TARP, in the face of a deteriorating economic outlook and severely strained financial conditions, according to the WSJ. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is on October 28/29.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on the ABC News website headlines "*Reid: Another Insurance Co. on Verge of Falling".* 


Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> all hinges on Trickie at 1230




Should be able to see live video when it starts @ :


http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html


----------



## Wealth Wizard

there we go


----------



## Kauri

if she can hold below 3850 then 1.35 is quite possible   

Trickies press conference comment that "upside inflation risks have diminished" and the ECB President also said most recent data clearly confirms weakening in economy did the trick...  for now.. 

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Cable getting hit too.


----------



## Kauri

and I'm out..     feel that the market has over-reacted to what was basically already priced in...   

 may be back in later if I've got it wrong...     but now time to hit the scratcher..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Nice mate. 

Bring on the scratcher


----------



## Wealth Wizard

Im also short CHFJPY from 90, out of EURUSD for 65 pips R:R 1.96, if resistance holds might be in again short


----------



## Wealth Wizard

back in


----------



## BentRod

Good luck.

Regarding the gap....I don't have that on my Charts.
Do you Budgie Man?


----------



## BentRod

Sorry...yes I have a gap on the 5 minute chart.


----------



## Wealth Wizard

stoped out, BAH, trigger happy  I use 5min for trigger to get better R:R,  still bullish but will step aside for now, hows everyone else feel on the depth of the retracement?


----------



## Wealth Wizard

"still bullish but will step aside for now"  bearish that is


----------



## Wealth Wizard

got SL & TP set, off to slumber land


----------



## BentRod

Might be worth a quickie if it breaks .


----------



## BentRod

Triggered.

Stop to BE @ 137.93


----------



## CanOz

I'm stunned at the markets reaction to the jobs jamboree

I had a short on the USD.CHF and was just about to pull the target up and get out before the jobs report and then it just spiked up and took out my B.Even....All markets, dollar, ES, everything has rallied....

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Triggered.
> 
> Stop to BE @ 137.93





  Yep... forget Bin Laden...  Bini  Smaghi   is de man.... today... or tonight... or tohour....       really coffee... promise..  
cheers
...............me


----------



## BentRod

Someone pass me the Kauri Dictionary :

@Can...why you surprised?...look at the trend on the Dailies.


----------



## Kauri

Global warming be dammeled...  Iceland is melting...  the crown is looking more and more like a paper party hat...  metinks....

cheers
....etc


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> @Can...why you surprised?...look at the trend on the Dailies.




Good point. I had taken the CHF trade because of the double top and then moved it to breakeven through the day....now short the EUR....crazy action tonight.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## BentRod

Fair enough mate.

I don't know your trading style but from a swing trading perspective off Daily/Hourly charts,  I can't see any sense going against the USD trend.

These are the biggest moves in history on any forex charts I have looked at.
Why fight it?


----------



## BentRod

> Triggered.
> 
> Stop to BE @ 137.93




Stop to 137.74.


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> I can't see any sense going against the USD trend.
> 
> These are the biggest moves in history on any forex charts I have looked at.
> Why fight it?




Just got stopped out of the EUR short....Thats enough for me tonight, too volatile to make any sense of it.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Wealth Wizard

anyone else feeling bearish?


----------



## caribean

1 Hour chart of Eur may, just may, turn out to be an inverted H&S....


----------



## caribean

..1.3620 the crucial resistance level


----------



## Kauri

In the general euphoria following the weekend the big cross, the Euro, seems to be seriously lagging the other crosses which are soaring..... I wonder what it means... if anything???? If it still hangs back during the Asian session I'll definitely be wary generally on FX crosses...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> n the general euphoria following the weekend the big cross, the Euro, seems to be seriously lagging the other crosses which are soaring..... I wonder what it means... if anything???? If it still hangs back during the Asian session I'll definitely be wary generally on FX crosses...




I noticed this aswell Kauri, it doesn't look very strong does it.

It got absolutely crushed on Friday dropping 400 pips in quick time.
I wonder if that is a sign of things to come?


----------



## BentRod

Any news on Trickies speech Budgie Man?

Will it just be the standard 'prrrice Stabiliteee' special?


----------



## Kauri

seems to have some on-going issues with this area....

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

In early waiting for the rest.....


----------



## BentRod

> In early waiting for the rest.....




Better late than never.

Stop to BE


----------



## BentRod

Shaken out of this one...

Too busy trying to build up existing shorts, should have taken the quick gimmie.

What a wally!


----------



## Kauri

too much clear space in the pink paddock to be a good coil... maybe a triple bott..   who nose...


Cheers'
............Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Everything falling now Kauri, S&P Futs in free fall on the hourly.Waiting on a few currencies for the best setup.

Cheers,





CanOz


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> Everything falling now Kauri, S&P Futs in free fall on the hourly.Waiting on a few currencies for the best setup.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CanOz




  Talk emerging of a possible IMF bailout, in excess of *USD 1Trln*, for recently embattled EM (emerging market) countries. Nothing confirmed yet but smaller units are picking up gains and the Euro is rallying against the Dollar on the back of the increase in speculation.


Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Awesome times Kauri.....Awesome times....got to be the most volatile currency markets in some time. Smaller time frames (30 minute) have more patterns than i can recall.

CanOz


----------



## Kauri

CanOz said:


> Awesome times Kauri.....Awesome times....got to be the most volatile currency markets in some time. Smaller time frames (30 minute) have more patterns than i can recall.
> 
> CanOz




  Yep... I haven't had as much fun since someone dropped thier overalls in Mrs Murphys chowder...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## CanOz

This is busy work though! I had lots of fun with the FXGame, but now thats its live i find myself second guessing some setups....got to step back at times and keep the broader market in view....love the small lots though!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Well the EUR has a nice candle going on the 30minute. Maybe a bottom here?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Kauri

news surfaces that German banks were the largest lenders to Iceland according to official BIS statistics - finally a crisis not made in America (well at least not geographically). According to their data German banks are on the hook for $21.32bn of $75.27bn in total debt. The UK"s share was a paltry $4.21bn. German banks were also the primary lenders to Ireland and Spain with their beleaguered housing industries ($240bn and $310bn respectively). According to a Reuters news story Bayern L/B who announced they"d be the first to access the government"s bank support plan will write off E800mn in Iceland losses. In comparison the US had $1.3bn to Iceland, $36.9bn to Ireland, and $40.6bn to Spain. European banks had a total $42bn to Iceland, $797bn to Ireland, and $996bn to Spain....  watch out Euro???

 Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Reealjrd

Hello Friends,

Today EUR/USD is looking better. 

EUR/USD intraday 

Strategy	Entry	Stop	1st target	2nd target
LONG	1.2730	1.2720	1.2830	1.2880

Pivot: 1.2720. 
Our Preference: LONG positions @ 1.276 with 1.2975 & 
1.3075 as next targets. 
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.275 
will call for 1.265 & 1.2525. 
Comment: the 30-min RSI has broken above a declining 
trend line. 

Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Bearish 

Key levels:	Comment:

1.293*	Fib retracement (61.8%)
1.288**	Fib retracement (50%)
1.283*	Fib retracement (38.2%)
1.2756	Last
1.272***	Intraday pivot point
1.266**	Intraday support
1.26**	Intraday support


Source AVAFX


----------



## CanOz

Still short the EUR today. Probably get shaken out when the other sessions start, but for now i'll just sit tight. May take another position later depending on how the S&P shapes up before the open.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Stopped out at 1.25997 ==> total pips 127ish

Lets see how the charts setup over the session changes.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## BentRod

CanOz said:


> Stopped out at 1.25997 ==> total pips 127ish
> 
> Lets see how the charts setup over the session changes.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Nice buddy  

I missed out on the triangle and all the current formations on the hourlies.

Currently waiting for the triangle on DOW daily to pop, if so euro and aud/jpy should follow.


----------



## CanOz

Should have popped Bent?

EUR holding up quite well. Got stoppedinto two other AUD trades but missed the EUR by a hair.

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## BentRod

> Should have popped Bent?




I thought it did but zooming in on the hourlies it looks like a bounce.

Either way, Aussie and cable got crushed(cable breached a TL from 1983 too)

As for Euro, holding up well.
Not sure how to read that one, looks strong though.


----------



## IFocus

Looks like the EUR has a ticket to ride

.


----------



## IFocus

Wrong train......


.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, wow!

Return trip back to the station....What the?

Is it the "i" word?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Whiskers

IFocus said:


> Looks like the EUR has a ticket to ride
> 
> .




Yeah, got the right ticket this time... a Morning Star on the 30min. 

Should see it rise for a lttle while at least.

May be the tipping point for the USD Index.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Which follows what I wonder.Oil follows EUR/USD or EUR/USD follows oil??

Surely they aren`t moving simultaneously.


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> Which follows what I wonder.Oil follows EUR/USD or EUR/USD follows oil??
> 
> Surely they aren`t moving simultaneously.




Had to know what or who's pullin the strings atm, but it looks like oil (Brent at least) got a 4 to 5 hour start. The AUD seems to be making a bit more ground against the USD too.

Startin to see a few Morning Stars in a few stocks and the one on the DOW is still good too. Got this feelin somethin's gonna break soon.

Suspect it might be some sort of Bush/Obama announcement.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, got the right ticket this time... a Morning Star on the 30min.
> 
> Should see it rise for a lttle while at least.
> 
> May be the tipping point for the USD Index.




... and I think I can see an inverted H&S coming on here too... 1.276ish.


----------



## BentRod

You trading it whiskers?

Where is your stop and entry??

cheers


----------



## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> You trading it whiskers?
> 
> Where is your stop and entry??
> 
> cheers




Just paper trading atm... but seriously considering venturing into forex.

Would have taken the AUD on the breakout... similarly here about 1.2588... but factoring in my amateurish EW, I might have a little on from here, 1.25ish thinking it's about to kick off the 3rd wave.

PS: I'd had 1.2460 as a stop... EW count would be wrong... but looks like north she goes.


----------



## BentRod

Get into it mate.

No minimum account size for forex , just trade small to start.

Better than paper trading.
You will learn a lot quicker.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> Just paper trading atm... but seriously considering venturing into forex.




You can spin the bottle in the mini forex for minmal outlay until overconfidence drags you into the majors.:


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah... time is my problem atm ... might slack off my share trading and analysis a bit to make a bit of time for this.


----------



## BentRod

> time is my problem atm ... might slack off my share trading and analysis a bit to make a bit of time for this.




Looking forward to you posting some real trades my little pussy fart :


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> ... and I think I can see an inverted H&S coming on here too... 1.276ish.




Ended up going to bed, but she settled around the 1.27's after overshooting to 1.285's.



BentRod said:


> Looking forward to you posting some real trades my little pussy fart :




Yeah, and I feel like a fart (wasted energy) when I get it right, but only on paper.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

things getting interesting on the E/$

visible double bottom.  but could be nothing more then a set up to break lower..

1.2375 a strong price point and one to watch. 

one thing to keep in mind is rate cuts. will the eu make any more surprise cuts?

Looks like it wants to move lower on the very short term. as you can see the lower highs three in a row.

not sure on what was said at the G20  but that could show a gap for Monday morning.......

Cheers


----------



## CFDTrading

*Dollar Remains Primed for Breakout Against Euro, British Pound*

_This is the short term analysis from our analysts at CFDtrading.com.  they think a breakout is imminent. _







The Euro remains in a tight wedge formation against the US Dollar, with Rangebound price action likely to culminate in breakouts through short-term currency trading. Given a previously bearish bias on the Euro/US Dollar pair, a downside break and further US Dollar strength seems the more likely outcome. Near-term EUR/USD support comes in at previous spike lows of 1.2390, while the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3120-1.2390 move at 1.2835 presents the clearest hurdle to any further Euro gains.






The British Pound/US Dollar pair remains in much the same situation as the rest of its forex trading counterparts, trading within a progressively narrower range through recent price action. It serves to note that the GBP/USD is currently challenging clear resistance at its multi-week downtrend line, and a break higher would signal that a move towards next noteworthy resistance at 1.5500 is likely. Short-term support comes in at the psychologically significant 1.5000, and a breakdown would instead imply that a drive to new lows is the more likely outcome.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

hey hey!

Blast off time on the euro!


----------



## sinner

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11880.htm



> Despite the Iran element of the dollar decline, caution is urged of renewed selling waves in the greenback vs. all majors except the yen as seasonal reversals in FX markets usually emerge in the last 5-6 weeks of the year, paring the flows prevailing in Sep-Oct. These reversals emerge from end-of-year position squaring, with dealing desks functioning on skeleton staffs. The chart below illustrates this phenomenon for EURUSD over the last 3 years. A repeat of these trends could see reversals in EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY towards $1.33, $1.62 and 100.00.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

sinner said:


> http://www.safehaven.com/article-11880.htm




that chart anit to conclusive sinner.

most of the boxes show chop to selling nor any great deal of buying apart from one case.

I am bullish on the euro on the short term but ECB rate cuts are to be watched in the current climate.

normally Dec though Jan are quiet months on the interbank, but in the current climate no safe bets on that.

cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Tonight's Trades........


Red horizontal line at 7:00 starts my trading day that's 1 hour before the Paris open. I have another red line at 17:00 that ends the day. I mostly trade to 15:00. (not on normal work days)

Red ticks are wins red cross for loss.

Trade 1 Short +14
Trade 2 Short -15
Trade 3 Long  +20
Trade 4 Short +15
Trade 5 Short +17

Busy night tonight nice busy way to end the week. Still have 2.5 hours left in my session.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Last trade of the morning.

Short +15

wild end to the session some big moves!

this rally seems to have topped not looking to healthy. could be another us session of risk aversion.....


----------



## BentRod

Should be a few stops underneath those lows....looks like they might get popped off shortly.

4Hour chart.


----------



## IFocus

Might be one of those coily thingy's speaking of which anyone seen Kauri around lately


.


----------



## BentRod

> Might be one of those coily thingy's speaking of which anyone seen Kauri around lately




Was wondering where the big man is too, no idea


----------



## BentRod

Just tried adding to my Euro shorts with nice tight stop above Todays highs.

Most likely get pinged but looks like a good RR trade.

Worth a shot.


----------



## lusk

BentRod said:


> Just tried adding to my Euro shorts with nice tight stop above Todays highs.
> 
> Most likely get pinged but looks like a good RR trade.
> 
> Worth a shot.




Bentrod, Adding to your shorts? trend looks up?


----------



## BentRod

lusk said:


> Bentrod, Adding to your shorts? trend looks up?




Not on my charts?

This pair has moved over 30 big figures off its high.

Its had its biggest move in history - an outside year.


----------



## lusk

BentRod said:


> Not on my charts?
> 
> This pair has moved over 30 big figures off its high.
> 
> Its had its biggest move in history - an outside year.




Ok, was looking at the chart you posted above, not a bad effort if you rode some of that move down hey.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

EUR/USD Long.

Took a long off the E/$ Pattern on MACD confirmed lower high to support.

Green lines ent and take profit. Red is the stop. + 30 pips on this trade.

Big night on the news front watch your positions at 12:30 tonight Melbourne time.

8:30am  	USD 	High Impact Expected 	*Core Retail Sales m/m*
8:30am  	USD 	High Impact Expected 	*PPI m/m*
8:30am  	USD 	High Impact Expected 	*Retail Sales m/m*
8:30am  	USD 	Medium Impact Expected * Core PPI m/m*

Good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Tonight's second trade. short off the thrust.

Took a short off the thrust with TP on the 8ema. Distance from the ma's gave the idea to short back with confrimation off the MACD. +15 pips.

Good Trading.


----------



## BentRod

lusk said:


> Ok, was looking at the chart you posted above, not a bad effort if you rode some of that move down hey.




I was lucky enough to catch most of it with some closed trades even over 100R.

Still got a couple on.

Amazing times to trade thats all I know


----------



## IFocus

BentRod said:


> I was lucky enough to catch most of it with some closed trades even over 100R.
> 
> Still got a couple on.
> 
> Amazing times to trade thats all I know




Nice work Bent


----------



## BentRod

IFocus said:


> Nice work Bent




Thanks mate, almost as good as your Oil trades

Couple more shorts on Today, might try and run the cable one, bloody hard not to get done at breakeven with all the whipsawing though.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

a couple losses tonight.

to longs and two losses.

total -56 pips.

Bent how u finding life with Oanda?

good trading.


----------



## BentRod

> Bent how u finding life with Oanda?




Good.

Love the position sizing, straight through processing and no slippage.

The downside is they widen the spread at news and also the spreads have been slightly wider since Lehmen went under, especially on Cable.


----------



## BentRod

Definitely didn't expect that huge spike up on the Euro.

Looks like it may have been a bear market rally though?
Time will tell.

Interesting times, must be a few stops under those lows.

Weekly:


----------



## Page

*21 January EUR/USD 1.2989 

Open 1.2883 Close 1.2905
High 1.3047 Low 1.2853 *

EUR/USD sustained its bearish progress yesterday. The currency pair made a low at 1.2853 and closed at 1.2905. On the 4-hour chart, we have shaped a downward triangle, which indicates bearish state of affairs. The major support area now is in the region of 1.2850, break below which will cause additional bearish impetus with targets towards the region of 1.2670. Immediate confrontation is represented by the 1.3050 level. The CCI indicator could not cross up the 100 line and continued down to the daily chart, assuming potential decreasing pressure.

*TR levels: 1.3050 1. 3165 1.3285
TS levels: 1.2850 1.2670 1.2750

Trading range: 1.3000 - 1.2925
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.2989 Stop Loss 1.3019 Target Price 1.2939
*


----------



## white_goodman

still overall downward trend so i can only short atm... if it finds support i may look to buy, alternately if it smashes support more selling...


----------



## Page

*EURUSD*

Yesterday refusal ahead of 1.2841/1.2798, 76.4% retracement of 1.2329/1.4720 upleg/09 Dec low zone, retrace fall from 1.3387 high. Further risk seen for the next downside return.


*Resistance*: 1.3087, 1.3100, 1.3174, and 1.3244

*Support*    : 1.2937, 1.2893, 1.2855, and 1.2825


----------



## BentRod

Make or break time for Fiber IMO.

Rate decision due Thursday night (Our time).

looks like a classic ABC of the larger variety??

I don't label charts but find myself looking at these patterns subconciously after all this time at The Chartist.:

Time will tell.

WEEKLY:


----------



## sinner

EURUSD 1h chart has gifted us a stochastic reading tonight the likes of which have not been seen since late December. IMHO the hook is simply too large to avoid negative price action.

After a few good scalps to create the capital for my stop-loss (so if the trade fails I break even), I am in short at 1.2987 with an eye to exit once the 1h stochastic hits 24.3.

MACD crossover would be increasingly bearish and I might add to the position at that point.

Stop-loss at 1.30.


----------



## sinner

Due to constraints (working the nightshift) had to terminate the trade early.

Stochastic at 49, plenty of downside to come.

Out at +21 pips (12875.80)


----------



## Sakk

Hi Guys,

I'm working on position sizing and money management rules for trading the eur/usd on 1min to 5 min charts during the London session.

I'll be trading short term price patterns, setting ISLP 10 pips away from entry using bracket orders.

I usually exit a losing trade prior to the initial stop getting hit as I'm watching the trade progress so it's more a risk management stop.

Can I ask what sort of slippage have you guys experienced in fast moving periods, i.e news events etc when your stops get hit?

Are there any particular news events to completely be out of the market until after the event?

I'm also working on scaling in and out of positions?

Appreciate any advice or thoughts.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

I trade off 1 Hr charts now and use limits so slippage around the main trading times isn't much of a concern. I use a 50 pip stop minimum so large news related moves are rarely a concern.

CanOz


----------



## Page

EUR/USD 1.2652 - 17 February
EUR/USD Open 1.2796 High 1.2875 Low 1.2632 Close 1.2801

Last week the Euro/Dollar resumed decreasing after failing to overcome the 1.2875 resistance. On the weekly chart risk of further decline remains valid, with targets towards the region of 1.2300, will the Euro remains under 1.3200. At the same time on the daily chart the currency couple consolidated, and the development of the downward trend could not be achieved, as EUR/USD met good demand in the area around 1.2730, and established convergence. Technically we have descending triangle, whose figure for the bearish scenario is towards the key level 1.2600. The market seems to have its hesitations and awaits more significant catalyst. The CCI indicator is in the oversold area and upwards on the 1 and 4 hour charts, assuming increasing pressure towards testing of the 1.2875 resistance. Going back under 1.2600 will form descending signals towards 1.2530.
Technical resistance levels: 1.2875 1. 2950 1.3055
Technical support levels: 1.2600 1.2515 1.2405

Trading range: 1.2665 - 1.2600
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.2652 SL 1.2682 TP 1.2612


----------



## BentRod

Sakk said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> I'm working on position sizing and money management rules for trading the eur/usd on 1min to 5 min charts during the London session.
> 
> I'll be trading short term price patterns, setting ISLP 10 pips away from entry using bracket orders.
> 
> I usually exit a losing trade prior to the initial stop getting hit as I'm watching the trade progress so it's more a risk management stop.
> 
> Can I ask what sort of slippage have you guys experienced in fast moving periods, i.e news events etc when your stops get hit?
> 
> Are there any particular news events to completely be out of the market until after the event?
> 
> I'm also working on scaling in and out of positions?
> 
> Appreciate any advice or thoughts.
> 
> Cheers




Slippage is of no concern at all, I get very little if any with Oanda.

If your moving size with an ECN you might get a bit???


Slippage at the retail level is non exist from my experience unless it is disguised as "requotes" from one of the MT4 bucket shops.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, some cool moves in the pairs T'nite!!!

What the heck is going on?

Everything has swung and then swung back again and then turned again?????

Did i miss some big news or what?

CanOz


----------



## BentRod

Dunno....haven't checked the news yet.

Gold is moving also so something is in store by the looks


----------



## Poker

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (Germany) came out better than expected
ZEW for Europe to come.


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> Dunno....haven't checked the news yet.
> 
> Gold is moving also so something is in store by the looks





S&P futs are way oversold, if they can get off the floor maybe the USD pairs will rally again.

Need an entry point.

CanOz


----------



## BentRod

> Need an entry point.




I feel you Brother

Must wait for entry point!!:


----------



## CanOz

BentRod said:


> I feel you Brother
> 
> Must wait for entry point!!:




Oh don't get me started!



Into cable now....go the pound! (time to switch threads!)

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Entry entry entry.

Lost 40 pips today (USDJPY) due to a poor entry, made it back when I slapped myself and got a good entry.

The volatility is nuts. Seasoned forex players on other forums are noting something weird is happening. Made my +40 pips today on GBPUSD volatility, have to be in and out real quick, prices whipsawing back and forth!


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Entry entry entry.
> 
> Lost 40 pips today (USDJPY) due to a poor entry, made it back when I slapped myself and got a good entry.
> 
> The volatility is nuts. Seasoned forex players on other forums are noting something weird is happening. Made my +40 pips today on GBPUSD volatility, have to be in and out real quick, prices whipsawing back and forth!




S&P futs at thier low again, something going on, earnings related??

Missed all the volitility today thankfully, i would have got blended.

CanOz


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> S&P futs at thier low again, something going on, earnings related??




What do you think this means?



> Missed all the volitility today thankfully, i would have got blended.
> 
> CanOz




Let's hope it's over! I have a bad feeling though..


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> What do you think this means?
> 
> 
> 
> Let's hope it's over! I have a bad feeling though..




Perhaps this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGX4UExx.jOk&refer=home

Sorry for long link.

CanOz


----------



## sinner

No worries. How about this then

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

Like I said in the gold thread I am taking a position in the VIX at NYSE market open.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> No worries. How about this then
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/markets/stockswatch/index.htm
> 
> Like I said in the gold thread I am taking a position in the VIX at NYSE market open.




Hmmm, not quite buying that story, i think there's been a bit of a shake out using the holiday and the news as an opportunity with lower liquidity in the S&P futs, or just panic selling. There's no volume though, not like there was in the big drop back in mid Nov.

Maybe its this realization: http://seekingalpha.com/article/120842-every-consensus-must-end?source=headline1

Watching the GBPJPY now too.

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## Sakk

BentRod said:


> Slippage is of no concern at all, I get very little if any with Oanda.
> 
> If your moving size with an ECN you might get a bit???
> 
> 
> Slippage at the retail level is non exist from my experience unless it is disguised as "requotes" from one of the MT4 bucket shops.




Thanks BentRod


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ive always thought slippage and requotes one and the same thing. at least we treat it the general same way in our programming.


----------



## strategist

*H4 graph*
   It looks like the pair has intention of breaking the "triangle" figure upwards and going to the level 1.3300.
With the breaking of "а-а+" descending trend, the pair has gained a possibility to test the higher bound of the "triangle" (E+). The breaking of "а-а+" trend is telling that the pair should break "Е+" (if it will be able to go above 1.2890), in its turn that will clear the way to target levels 1.3055 (B+ trend line - the higher bound of the side trend), 1.3165 (F trend line) and to the key level of H4 graph picture - 1.3300.
There is a probability of a correctional bounce off "Е+" trend line to the support level 1.2895, after that an ascending trend should be resumed.

_Variants of events to develop:_
1. If the pair goes above 1.2890, it will head to 1.3055/1.3165/1.3300.
This scenario is cancelled in case the pair will manage to drop below 1.2870 after passing 1.2890.
2. Upon the bounce off "Е+" trend line (current level is 1.2825) the pair founds a resistance at the level 1.2695 and ascending trend is resumed.
This scenario is cancelled in case the pair will manage to drop below 1.2630.

_Supports:_
1.2695 / after passing 1.2890 the level 1.2845 will become the support.
Resistances:
1.2825 (current level) / 1.3055 / 1.3165 / 1.3300

_Trading recommendations:_
1. Buy from 1.2890, stop 1.2770, take 1.2950
2. Buy from 1.2705, stop 1.2630, take 1.2950








*Daily graph*
From the technical picture at H4 graph it’s seen that the pair is going to break the "triangle" figure (Е-Е+) upwards. In case it passes the level 1.2890, the figure will be considered broken and the level 1.3820 will become the target of the pair. The old and well-known level 1.3300 will be an important intermediate resistance; upon the reaching of this level a bounce to the support level 1.2890 will be possible, followed by the resuming of ascending trend to the level 1.3820.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

one of those lines HAS to be correct!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Stormin_Norman said:


> one of those lines HAS to be correct!




Gee you`re in a cranky mood this morning stormin.

There is some possibility in the assessment but the trading recommendations are ambiguous in my view.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

brisbane lost to adelaide in the football. 

grumblegrumblegrumble.


----------



## i_in

little late 2900 +


----------



## i_in

long from now 2700 stop 2650 t/p 2900
I keep one more from 2750 with the same stop and t/p


----------



## i_in

my viewpoint


----------



## i_in

buy here with stop below 1.2490


----------



## Stormin_Norman

who has more problems atm? europe of america?

sheesh what a question?!

but on the chart it seems a solid resistance 1.2550 and it could be worth trading on that i agree.


----------



## i_in

I don 't know, just a count
matter of time to understand


----------



## i_in

I expect to go somewhere around 27 - 2750 and then return to 25 for double bottom


----------



## Phillip

Eurozone GDP data out 9 PM melbourne time today then i/r decisions by ECB 11 PM melbourne time & BoE 11.45PM melbourne time... stay tuned in what should be a forex frenzy!

I have had a bit of wine so this should be fun


----------



## Stormin_Norman

drinking and trading...it should be fun


----------



## sinner

Phillip said:


> I have had a bit of wine so this should be fun




Bring on the performance enhancing drugs


----------



## strategist

*EUR/USD forecast*

H4 analysis
   The pair is being traded in the "a-a+" half-side half-ascending trend. A trading range 1.2604 - 1.2755 has been formed by numerous resistances from above and supports from below. I can't say that the pair has an ascending intention right now, because the higher bound of the side daily trend - "B+" trend line - is crossing the level 1.2770. This trend line will hold up all ascending attempts until it gets broken.
   Analyzing the present picture, three variants of events to develop are seen:
1. continuation of trading in the side trend, in 1.2604 - 1.2755.
2. by breaking the lower bound  of "a-a+" trend ("a" trend line) the pair heads to the "Z" trend line - level 1.2430 (if the pair drops below 1.2600).
3. by breaking "B+" trend line the pair heads to the level 1.3110 (if the pair rises above 1.2820).


Daily analysis
The pair is being traded down the "B-B+" side descending trend, which has a potential to carry the market up to the level 1.2320. I can't tell about a clear development of any picture unless the pair exits from this trend by breaking its higher bound "B+". If "B+" will get broken and the pair goes above level 1.2840, then reaching of the support at 1.3300 is guaranteed.


----------



## strategist

*EUR/USD*

H4 graph
   The pair is confidently moving along the ascending trend. Trend’s target is at levels between two resistances: 1.3820 and 1.4000, where "Y" trend line passes. I expect a potential turn from those levels. There are no signs of trend’s turn yet, that’s why ascending motion is confident for now.



Daily graph
If signs of trend’s turn appear, the pair will perform a correction to 1.3300, followed by resuming of the ascending trend targeted at testing the "Y" trend line. In case "Y" trend line will get broken, the figure #44 will be the pair’s next target.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

euro short limit just hit. +128 pips

sorry no chart on this people...........


----------



## i_in

buy limit 1.3560


----------



## >Apocalypto<

i_in said:


> buy limit 1.3560




Bottom pickers get smelly fingers!  


My my the eur/usd is taking a beat down!


----------



## i_in

1.3920 min.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

one of those nights last night.

missed the main move as no ent signal and finished -22 plus com.

still on ATC sim while I wait to get my live account. 

1st long -20 
2nd short +20
3rd Long -22

Overall had a nice week....

cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg

>Apocalypto< said:


> *still on ATC sim while I wait to get my live account*.
> 
> Overall had a nice week....




Hi Apocalypto, with the Accounts on ATC do you find the deposit and withdrawal a little restrictive?Like they want cheques or wire transfer in and ye have to fill out a withdrawal form for funds out($25).Funding in USD too as per the quote below from their FAQ`s.Also the commish + a small spread on every trade.

All part of the ECN service though hey.



> Accounts
> 
> -What is the funding method?
> 
> *You have the option to send a personal check*, which will have a five business day hold once received. *You also have the option to send a* *wire transfer*. We do not charge any fee for incoming funds.
> 
> -What is the withdrawal method?
> 
> *ATC provides you with a withdrawal form*; you simply fill out and fax the form back. *The wire out usually takes approximately 24-36 hours *depending on your location *and the cost is $25 per wire*.
> 
> -What is the minimum account size?
> 
> The minimum is $5,000.
> 
> -What is the commission fee?
> 
> Commission is set to $8.00 round turn per 100,000 lot size. One mini-contract (10,000) will have a cost of $0.80 round turn.
> 
> -Can I fund in Euro?
> 
> *No, you can only fund in US Dollar at this time*.


----------



## sinner

Hi Apocalypto, 

Thanks for your chart. You say you did not go short because you received no signal, but instead went long shortly before that. I understand if you don't want to reveal your strategy but am very curious why you went long there.

If you had played the same game on GBPUSD then that last long would have done you nicely as it bounced well from the lows.

I know some traders who smashed several hundred pips last night on G/U and E/U moving up and down with the drop then retrace.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> Hi Apocalypto,




Hi how are you.....



> with the Accounts on ATC do you find the deposit and withdrawal a little restrictive?




No not really cuz I am used to doing int transfers now. I don't deposit by credit card so that's not a worry to me.



> Like they want cheques or wire transfer in and ye have to fill out a withdrawal form for funds out($25).




Like I said above no issue to me as I have done it with most my brokers. I had to do withdrawal forms for Alpari and GFT used to that! Now the $25 is ok in terms of overseas brokers GFT is $20. that's nothing I had to pay 14 pounds with Alpari, that pissed me off.



> Funding in USD too as per the quote below from their FAQ`s.




Most my accounts have been in USD. I have no issue with that I actually prefer it. When you make profits in USD it adds to the joy when you bring it home on conversion. I hope they offer accounts in EUR in the future as I want one.



> Also the commish + a small spread on every trade.




I won't go to far into the ECN vs Dealing Desk debate. I have traded Alapri IG Markets and GFT (still am). I never had an issue with IG or GFT but Alpari forced me out with the requotes.

No 8$ round trip is abit high but it works out cheaper then a 2 pip spread on the E/$ as I only trade in Europe to US session. The average spread is .5 of a pip. Now the spread is alwas in that area never 1-2. 98% of the time it's under a pip. so on 100K I pay $12 for my trade vs $20 all adds up. Plus the execution is great! Hence I am going ECN Alpari left a terrible taste in my mouth.



> All part of the ECN service though hey.




the above paragraph is also for this......


----------



## >Apocalypto<

sinner said:


> Hi Apocalypto,
> 
> Thanks for your chart. You say you did not go short because you received no signal, but instead went long shortly before that. I understand if you don't want to reveal your strategy but am very curious why you went long there.
> 
> If you had played the same game on GBPUSD then that last long would have done you nicely as it bounced well from the lows.
> 
> I know some traders who smashed several hundred pips last night on G/U and E/U moving up and down with the drop then retrace.




Hi Sinner,

I shorted the Euro last night as well but that's on a different method. I also went long on it this morning 4ish, between you and me I think I was a little adventurous on that one! 

Now on the chart i posted.

That's the 15min method I use.

I would have to really explain it...... in a short ans, I take pattern signals off the MACD in conjunction with the Heiken Ashi indicator and the MAs

I use this to scalp... I look at the range distance on the right of the chart and that is my stop and take profit target. I adjust these as the markets moves. So I am never in for the whole move only what that range is. eg, 20 20 24. 

That is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the system... There are a lot more rules in regards to what signal I can take, determined by the indicator and MAs and MACD, like where the pattern is, 6 15 30 range...

So last night it was one of those nights were it didn't happen. o well  

cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg

Thanx Apocalypto, resolved my doubts with your perspective.


----------



## AbundantIncome

So, a big fall last week, wonder if there is an upside if so what to expect this week ???

Thanks


----------



## i_in

I expect ECB in thursday
but now buy limit 3115 stop 3060


----------



## i_in

doesn't look good 
stop b/e
2960 will tray again


----------



## AbundantIncome

ECB ???

Daily trend seems to indicate an uptrend ??? maybe a long term thing for this thing ...



i_in said:


> I expect ECB in thursday
> but now buy limit 3115 stop 3060


----------



## michael_selway

i_in said:


> doesn't look good
> stop b/e
> 2960 will tray again




Hey have you read this?

http://www.dynamicwealthreport.com/research-reports/currency1.htm

thx

MS


----------



## i_in

what's this anything like basic tutorial ?!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

i_in said:


> what's this anything like basic tutorial ?!




confused on it as well


----------



## i_in

I think after ECB we trade higher to 1.34 and then take another run at top
after Employment numbers
stops for all long from this levels and lower 1.3060


----------



## pilbara

AbundantIncome said:


> ECB ???
> 
> Daily trend seems to indicate an uptrend ??? maybe a long term thing for this thing ...



yeah maybe it's back to the previous long term channel which was disrupted by the "fed prints money" shock


----------



## Stormin_Norman

be interesting what the NFP has in store for us tonight.


----------



## pilbara

regarding NFP announcement, I think USA unemployment is heading into historical highs not seen since the early 1980s recession.  Unemployment lags the rest of the economy but surely it will go up beyond 10 percent.   There's nowhere to hide for the real US economy now.


----------



## i_in

Lately NFP has been mostly nonevent


----------



## Stormin_Norman

as it was again last night.


----------



## strategist

*EUR/USD*

H4 graph
The pair had passed the "R" resistance trend line (level 1.3480) and now it's being traded along an ascending trend with the target of growth to level 1.3750. The support is found at level 1.3455; intermediate resistance is at 1.3570. If the pair goes below level 1.3350, an ascending trend is supposed to be replaced by a descending one


Daily graph
An ascending trend having the target of growth to the resistance level 1.3750 had been developed at H4 graph. Upon reaching the stated level, there are 3 scenarios of events to follow:

1. If the pair rises above level 1.3800 (breaks the "Y" trend line), then target 1.4360 will be reached.

2. If the pair bounces off level 1.3750 ("Y" trend line), a "double top" turning figure will be formed having its basis at level 1.3112. Upon the bounce off 1.3750 the following is supposed to happen: "M" trend will get broken, figure's basis level and then the support at 1.3112 will be reached, after that the pair will bounce again and grow to level ~1.3650, then break the "Y" trend line and reach level 1.4360.

3. If after the bounce off 1.3750 and reaching the figure's basis at level 1.3112 the pair goes under this level, it will reach an intermediate support and then the main support at 1.2500 ("U" trend line) - the lower bound of the "triangle" figure from weekly graph


----------



## jonojpsg

No analysis at all on this call, but it looks like a reasonable point to jump in long on the Euro given it's fairly steep decline over the past week and the ongoing ramp up of USD production.  Oh well, I'm in at 1.2980 aiming for a move back to around 1.3150 with trailing stops 20pips below

Anyone with me?


----------



## AbundantIncome

jonojpsg said:


> No analysis at all on this call, but it looks like a reasonable point to jump in long on the Euro given it's fairly steep decline over the past week and the ongoing ramp up of USD production.  Oh well, I'm in at 1.2980 aiming for a move back to around 1.3150 with trailing stops 20pips below
> 
> Anyone with me?




looking really uncertain at the moment to get in on 1 hour chart :d, so a waiting game i guess


----------



## Naked shorts

jonojpsg said:


> No analysis at all on this call, but it looks like a reasonable point to jump in long on the Euro given it's fairly steep decline over the past week and the ongoing ramp up of USD production.  Oh well, I'm in at 1.2980 aiming for a move back to around 1.3150 with trailing stops 20pips below
> 
> Anyone with me?




I'm waiting for some elephant to jump in at 1.3000 to trigger some kind of stop run, my guess is that it will hit 1.3020 before crashing down to new lows


----------



## i_in

jonojpsg said:


> No analysis at all on this call, but it looks like a reasonable point to jump in long on the Euro given it's fairly steep decline over the past week and the ongoing ramp up of USD production.  Oh well, I'm in at 1.2980 aiming for a move back to around 1.3150 with trailing stops 20pips below
> 
> Anyone with me?




I just saw your post. I think 3150 is too low there are a lot of stops above 1.3140 and will go to 13240 just a guess


----------



## Naked shorts

So... how much did all you guys loose? :


----------



## AbundantIncome

Naked shorts said:


> So... how much did all you guys loose? :




was not in and i am starting to get confused again with my charts .. i cannot find a confident point to get in ! and i tend to get out and the pair does a runner from my stopped target !!! 

is everybody confused about the market as me ? or is it just me


----------



## Naked shorts

AbundantIncome said:


> was not in and i am starting to get confused again with my charts .. i cannot find a confident point to get in ! and i tend to get out and the pair does a runner from my stopped target !!!
> 
> is everybody confused about the market as me ? or is it just me




They will always do that, you will get used to it before you get better.


----------



## AbundantIncome

Naked shorts said:


> They will always do that, you will get used to it before you get better.




thanks for that ...


----------



## Stormin_Norman

just remember - bad news in USA is good for their dollar.

seems silly, but that's how it goes in the current battle of the lightweight currencies.


----------



## strategist

*EUR/USD*

H4 graph
   The pair is consolidating under the “triangle” figure’s lower bound, being held up by resistance level 1.3080. After “triangle” got broken the market was supposed to rapidly make a leap down, but that didn’t happen – downtrend impulse faded owing to support 1.2898 (the maximum on 02/25/09). Taking this picture to account there are 2 variants of events to develop:

   1. The pair rises above resistance 1.3080, which speaks in favor of finishing of the “triangle” model and of the downtrend. Next, upon breaking above level 1.3155 an uptrend will take effect, having the target at resistance level 1.3320 (the higher bound of the “triangle”). A correction to 1.3155 is likely to happen from that level, followed by retesting of level 1.3300. If after that the pair will successfully rise above 1.3350 – a “flag”, figure of trend’s continuation, will take effect and level 1.3570 will become the pair’s target.

   2. The pair stays under 1.3080 and then goes below 1.2980 – in such case the pair will get to accumulation of supports between 1.2857–1.2776. In case the last mentioned support will be passed, the pair will head to 1.2525.


----------



## i_in

good level for one daily trade
short 3250 stop 3285 tp 2960


----------



## lusk

i_in said:


> good level for one daily trade
> short 3250 stop 3285 tp 2960




Why TP at 1.2960? I'm short if she crosses 1.32 stop 1.3250 no TP will let her go and see what happens.


----------



## i_in

lusk said:


> Why TP at 1.2960? I'm short if she crosses 1.32 stop 1.3250 no TP will let her go and see what happens.




I have a few scenarios, one of them is down to around that level and reverse for 1.4. for now that looks decent. If something goes wrong, I will explain you other options later
gl&gt


----------



## i_in

so stupid stop .... 
another one second attempt


----------



## i_in

i_in said:


> so stupid stop ....
> another one second attempt




move tp to 2890
gl&gt


----------



## Naked shorts

God dam it, if i was trading my old system I would be retired right now.


----------



## i_in

Naked shorts said:


> God dam it, if i was trading my old system I would be retired right now.




I confuse things too... just I don't had to take this short. anyway, don't worry, will have time and another good levels to take. It have long way to go up! I think it was last low level for the summer to Christmas 
gl&gt


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
The pair went above level 1.3550 – key resistance had been passed; owing to that, target of the pair’s growth is now set at resistance level 1.3910. Support is at 1.3550.








Daily graph
Level 1.3550 proved to be a key level. The pair’s rising above it led to development of a strong uptrend, having targets of growth set at intermediate resistance 1.3910, target level 1.4230 and then, possibly, at 1.4400. Support is currently at 1.3550.


----------



## AbundantIncome

thanks... the hourly chart is also showing a rather bullish trend ...

fingers crossed it is going to be a sharp ascent as I stay for the short while only 





strategist said:


> H4 graph
> The pair went above level 1.3550 – key resistance had been passed; owing to that, target of the pair’s growth is now set at resistance level 1.3910. Support is at 1.3550.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Daily graph
> Level 1.3550 proved to be a key level. The pair’s rising above it led to development of a strong uptrend, having targets of growth set at intermediate resistance 1.3910, target level 1.4230 and then, possibly, at 1.4400. Support is currently at 1.3550.


----------



## i_in

my expectation is descent 3730 - something about 3550, then 42
gl&gt


----------



## >Apocalypto<

euro has been a real party tonight.... that freeakin spike down nearly cleaned it all out.

still long...

WHAT A  THIN FING NIGHT....

WELCOME TO THE NEW FOREX MARKET BOYS AND GIRLZ


----------



## AbundantIncome

>Apocalypto< said:


> euro has been a real party tonight.... that freeakin spike down nearly cleaned it all out.
> 
> still long...
> 
> WHAT A  THIN FING NIGHT....
> 
> WELCOME TO THE NEW FOREX MARKET BOYS AND GIRLZ




what a nite !!! i am glad i was on the right side of the fence !!! i have enough roller coaster, very high indeed, i do not think i would do any more trading tonight .. too much ...

stop losses on IB do not work etc etc !! what the !!! i have to do more paper trading !!! i appreciate stop losses more than EVER !!!


----------



## Naked shorts

Yeah its all over the place. never saw that whipsaw coming. I think it will remain crap until US unemployment comes out.

currently trying to bring my account back up to where i started today


----------



## AbundantIncome

Naked shorts said:


> Yeah its all over the place. never saw that whipsaw coming. I think it will remain crap until US unemployment comes out.
> 
> currently trying to bring my account back up to where i started today




I am hardly out of position. Normally, I am down like multiple times that I could profit. So, like one week then down back to zero or negative figure from when I started ! Talking about a novice. I am too scared to jump back in tonight before I get the stop loss sorted !

This got to change !!!


----------



## SoBadAtTrading

20-30 pip swings, you think it's going up then right down it goes and then it reverses back. Compared to the other majors, it's still holding up surprisingly.


----------



## AbundantIncome

Been rising for the past two days. Is it time to short ??? any charts ?

Thanks


----------



## i_in

AbundantIncome said:


> Been rising for the past two days. Is it time to short ??? any charts ?
> 
> Thanks




4216 or 3183 
i will close 1/2 of the position at 3 pm GMT


----------



## supermatt

hi guys. Im only new but thought I would give this a go and post a chart.... whats the worst that can happen? that im wrong  lets see what happens. 

Any way the EUR has just climbed up over the mid term purple trendline. I thought it was going to run out of steam there but as it happens it appears to have broken this resistance channel that has formed over the last few months. The next obvious area where it may go next is up towards the 1.4273mark as it seems like it could be a strong area of resistance with the white trend channel line. I love fibs so I found this interesting too.. The last retracement was 38.2%. This also was spot on a long term trendline in the aqua color, so the target here would be around 138.2% which is exactly around the area where the upper white trendline bumps into.

Ive only been doing this for a few weeks so go easy on me

thanks


----------



## Wysiwyg

Just bought a couple of smalls on this pennant breakout, well actually in the triangle near the end at 1.4223. So far so good. Looking for 50 pips but forever cautious with forex trading.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Dead at breakeven. Forex is a joke.


----------



## jonojpsg

Wysiwyg said:


> Dead at breakeven. Forex is a joke.




Hey Wys, I 'm short from 1.4224 - thought it had run too far today and last post pointed out serious resistance ahead around 1.4273 which I thought was playing out around the tops formed around 1.424.  See how I'm going in an hour


----------



## Wysiwyg

jonojpsg said:


> Hey Wys, I 'm short from 1.4224 - thought it had run too far today and last post pointed out serious resistance ahead around 1.4273 which I thought was playing out around the tops formed around 1.424.  See how I'm going in an hour




Yes jono, it has panned out that way. Good luck with it. I just aint confident anymore for longer holds.


----------



## Naked shorts

Wysiwyg said:


> Dead at breakeven. Forex is a joke.




LOL, im guessing that your T/P point was one point higher then what it hit before crashing back down to B/E? Its good fun!


----------



## i_in

buy limit 4140

gl&gt


----------



## jonojpsg

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes jono, it has panned out that way. Good luck with it. I just aint confident anymore for longer holds.




OUt this morning at 1.4163 for 60 odd pips


----------



## AbundantIncome

one of my account has not changed much if any, I like to think this is a positive thing with all these wild rides ??? won a fair bit ? lost a fair bit ... what the ?????


----------



## white_goodman

long at 1.40


----------



## i_in

buy on dip! 
3930 is good long
gl&gt


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Wysiwyg said:


> Dead at breakeven. Forex is a joke.




that's a perfect example of why I stopped playing the break out game.


----------



## Sakk

Wysiwyg said:


> Dead at breakeven. Forex is a joke.




Wysiwyg,

I love b/e trades 

Your entry was good at 1.4223, price ran up 23 pips to previous pivot high then pulled back to stop you out.  If your playing 1min charts you need to be more  aggresive with managing the trade.

As an alternative, you could sell 50% of position at just under previous pivot high at around 1.4242, locking in 19 pips and trailing the remainder of the position at pivot low after HH is made, in this case trailoing stop would be set at 1.4232, locking in another 9pips for a total profit of approx 14 pips.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Sakk said:


> Wysiwyg,
> 
> I love b/e trades
> 
> Your entry was good at 1.4223, price ran up 23 pips to previous pivot high then pulled back to stop you out.  If your playing 1min charts you need to be more  aggresive with managing the trade.




that is a great point +23 pips off a 1 min chart is like 123 on a 4 hour chart!

Wysiwyg you got greedy champ! :bonk:


----------



## fapturbo

>Apocalypto< said:


> that's a perfect example of why I stopped playing the break out game.




Isn't a trend just a move from one consolidation pattern to another consolidation pattern caused by a breakout from each consolidation pattern??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fapturbo said:


> Isn't a trend just a move from one consolidation pattern to another consolidation pattern caused by a breakout from each consolidation pattern??




if trading was that easy Fap you would not need an EA to make money.....


----------



## fapturbo

>Apocalypto< said:


> if trading was that easy Fap you would not need an EA to make money.....




Nice come back mate


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fapturbo said:


> Nice come back mate




think about it Fab,

that is a 1min chart.... 

looking at that pattern break out then thinking it's going straight into a range...

it's so easy to call things and make money in hindsight. very different in the heat of the moment.


----------



## fapturbo

>Apocalypto< said:


> think about it Fab,
> 
> that is a 1min chart....
> 
> looking at that pattern break out then thinking it's going straight into a range...
> 
> it's so easy to call things and make money in hindsight. very different in the heat of the moment.




That's why you need to have a clear entry and exit condition.

Most importantly a clear Exit.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fapturbo said:


> That's why you need to have a clear entry and exit condition.
> 
> Most importantly a clear Exit.




if u can have the discipline to follow that then u will profit.

there will be many times u see that ent bar turn around on the next with a tail back into the range.... lower time frames on fx are testers.... stops look after those move.

No one is knocking u Fab, I am glad to hear u are not using that EA... learn the rhythm and make some pips!


----------



## fapturbo

>Apocalypto< said:


> if u can have the discipline to follow that then u will profit.
> 
> there will be many times u see that ent bar turn around on the next with a tail back into the range.... lower time frames on fx are testers.... stops look after those move.
> 
> No one is knocking u Fab, I am glad to hear u are not using that EA... learn the rhythm and make some pips!




Support/Resistance and Time Frames.... been around FX for a while mate. Don't worry I wont go bust


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fapturbo said:


> Support/Resistance and Time Frames.... been around FX for a while mate. Don't worry I wont go bust




lets hope they stay around for a while longer.

going bust is actually a great way to learn (not that I advise anyone try it). I lost 2 accounts getting to where I am now, taught me a lot.


----------



## fapturbo

Locked in 3.5 x risk on this trade at the moment...

Nice......


----------



## fapturbo

x6.5 risk


----------



## Stormin_Norman

>Apocalypto< said:


> lets hope they stay around for a while longer.
> 
> going bust is actually a great way to learn (not that I advise anyone try it). I lost 2 accounts getting to where I am now, taught me a lot.




i busted 2 as well. i didnt really learn much until i busted them.

demo accounts are like playing fifa on the playstation and thinking you know how to play real football.

as for the euro. im still holding a short from 4215 on friday night. i thought it was overbought. 

i might have missed my aussie manual trade last week, but i got this one.


----------



## fapturbo

About 10 x risk...


----------



## Naked shorts

Wtf is happening tonight? There is plenty of people sitting in the DOM, but no one is executing orders. The volume tonight is about a quarter of what it is normally.


----------



## AbundantIncome

it seems forex is designed to take the little guys out ... uptrend then sudden downtrend, then up again .. what the ...

 i am losing confidence on my charts again ...


----------



## fapturbo

Anyone got a plan for today trade?


----------



## white_goodman

fapturbo said:


> Anyone got a plan for today trade?




im looking for longs... ill post a chart tonight if i place a trade.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fapturbo said:


> Anyone got a plan for today trade?




taken 12 long.

watching..... and waiting


----------



## Naked shorts

>Apocalypto< said:


> taken 12 long.
> 
> watching..... and waiting




I reckon we will come down to todays low, 1.3865 on the futures, hit a few stops, then turn around and make new highs (anything above 1.3965). Im not going to be holding onto any positions however.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Naked shorts said:


> I reckon we will come down to todays low, 1.3865 on the futures, hit a few stops, then turn around and make new highs (anything above 1.3965). Im not going to be holding onto any positions however.




agree with you NS,

I caught the 12 on the Europe open. looking for a rally to sell cont to get in short. if the price gets to 13ema (blue) would be great.

see what the markets shows...........


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well the pull back never came on 15 min..... lasted one 15 min bar....

good call naked just about on the session lows


----------



## white_goodman

white_goodman said:


> im looking for longs... ill post a chart tonight if i place a trade.




quote from my blog:

"was in an important zone and I was looking for an 'excuse' to go long... 
nice hammer/pin bar on 30min chart, took it long... also with the 4hr and weekly trend.. (admittedly trend is hard to read atm with conflicting messages on daily,weekly and 4hr charts. However fundamentally weak US dollar expected by 92% of traders - read it somewhere)

Results: took half off at 41pips, gonna let the rest run to just under 1.4100 where it'll meet resistance and a psych number (whole number). Might take all off at this amount or may take majority off and let a little run... Stop is now jsut below 1.3900 (another psych number). If you go back to the 5min chart you will notice how quickly it took off once breaching 1.3900."


----------



## fapturbo

white_goodman said:


> quote from my blog:
> 
> "was in an important zone and I was looking for an 'excuse' to go long...
> nice hammer/pin bar on 30min chart, took it long... also with the 4hr and weekly trend.. (admittedly trend is hard to read atm with conflicting messages on daily,weekly and 4hr charts. However fundamentally weak US dollar expected by 92% of traders - read it somewhere)
> 
> Results: took half off at 41pips, gonna let the rest run to just under 1.4100 where it'll meet resistance and a psych number (whole number). Might take all off at this amount or may take majority off and let a little run... Stop is now jsut below 1.3900 (another psych number). If you go back to the 5min chart you will notice how quickly it took off once breaching 1.3900."




Good trade that one... Price action based


----------



## Naked shorts

Naked shorts said:


> I reckon we will come down to todays low, 1.3865 on the futures, hit a few stops, then turn around and make new highs (anything above 1.3965).




Just in case you wanted to know what i look like, I have uploaded a picture of myself. 






My books will be out soon.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> well the pull back never came on 15 min..... lasted one 15 min bar....
> 
> good call naked just about on the session lows




hell of a rally off the lows. 

thank this for the rally?

6:00am   EUR  	German Industrial Production 

I have no idea......... watching ..........


----------



## >Apocalypto<

white_goodman said:


> quote from my blog:
> 
> "was in an important zone and I was looking for an 'excuse' to go long...
> nice hammer/pin bar on 30min chart, took it long... also with the 4hr and weekly trend.. (admittedly trend is hard to read atm with conflicting messages on daily,weekly and 4hr charts. However fundamentally weak US dollar expected by 92% of traders - read it somewhere)
> 
> Results: took half off at 41pips, gonna let the rest run to just under 1.4100 where it'll meet resistance and a psych number (whole number). Might take all off at this amount or may take majority off and let a little run... Stop is now jsut below 1.3900 (another psych number). If you go back to the 5min chart you will notice how quickly it took off once breaching 1.3900."




nice trade W G

you took a price rejection that was a higher low / double bottom off a range low.

nothing wrong with that.


----------



## Naked shorts

>Apocalypto< said:


> hell of a rally off the lows.
> 
> thank this for the rally?
> 
> 6:00am   EUR  	German Industrial Production
> 
> I have no idea......... watching ..........




No, the market bottomed 40mins after that was released.


----------



## white_goodman

Naked shorts said:


> No, the market bottomed 40mins after that was released.




not every move is news related... may have been a technical rally


----------



## >Apocalypto<

white_goodman said:


> not every move is news related... may have been a technical rally




or a bottom enforced to rally off the news.... o well it's happened no use working out why it happened after the event.


----------



## AbundantIncome

glad I got back almost all of my losses last week !!! they were a huge one !!! am going to do smaller trade nowadays ... gone too big too fast and cannot act fast enough ... did not sleep till 2-3 this morning though, could have got more if I stayed from the chart but again nothing was certain, glad finished off on a happier note compared to last week... was kinda depressing, weeks earning gone in a day or two ...

now there is this going ? lots of people saying it is to top, but it never seems to ???

what the ?


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
   The pair is being traded along a downtrend having the lowering target set to levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. A slight correction takes place now, caused by the bounce off level 1.3800 (the neckline of “head and shoulders”). Levels 1.3953 and 1.4000 (gap level) are the resistances; the pair is supposed to turn from those levels soon. To gain a continuing down-trending impulse, the pair needs to get down below levels 1.3800 and 1.3700 again, what will lead to dropping to target levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. However, this lowering may be quite wavy, since the pair is moving along the 4th correctional wave (this is clearly seen on daily graph).


----------



## i_in

strategist said:


> H4 graph
> The pair is being traded along a downtrend having the lowering target set to levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. A slight correction takes place now, caused by the bounce off level 1.3800 (the neckline of “head and shoulders”). Levels 1.3953 and 1.4000 (gap level) are the resistances; the pair is supposed to turn from those levels soon. To gain a continuing down-trending impulse, the pair needs to get down below levels 1.3800 and 1.3700 again, what will lead to dropping to target levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. However, this lowering may be quite wavy, since the pair is moving along the 4th correctional wave (this is clearly seen on daily graph).




these patterns do not exist 

no signal for sell nowhere! daily and weekly charts are clearly up

GL


----------



## MRC & Co

Question for the intraday traders of Euro/USD who do so in the European open timezone, which other instruments do you recommend watching for correlations? 

I will be joining your clan for a few stabs at this instrument in about a week.


----------



## caribean

Personally EUR/USD is my main instrument, or should i say 6E (futures)
i do display charts of another 6-8 favorites, ES,FESX, FDAX,CL, USD/CHF GBP/USD,AUD/USD USD/JPY sometimes one will break out of a consolidation, or just show the direction before 6E, and all too often it will be a false indication (the GBP guilty of that often)
Correlation right now is a bit messy, as i'm sure you know.
I use USD/CHF or 6S for scalp hedging purposes (in the right market conditions) with multiple contracts, but that is a difficult game that requires a LOT of consetration, good luck with your trades.


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Question for the intraday traders of Euro/USD who do so in the European open timezone, which other instruments do you recommend watching for correlations?
> 
> I will be joining your clan for a few stabs at this instrument in about a week.




 
Welcome aboard matey

I watch gold/usd a little bit, but apart from that, the correlations are useless to me at this point.

Might be worth watching the spot market in conjunction with the futures.


----------



## MRC & Co

Thanks for the feedback guys.  

I will also be trading the futures Caribean.  I'm sure we will cross paths along the way and exchange a few hands!


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> and exchange a few hands!




looking forward to it :


----------



## strategist

Looks next steps..

*H4 graph*
   The pair is being traded along side trend that is turning to a downtrend due to the pair's lowering below level 1.3900. In addition, the trading goes within a "down-trending triangle" figure ("C-C+" red channel) that implies developing of a downtrend with lowering target set to support level 1.3550, which is the main lowering target by the moment. However, execution of "triangle" upon exit below level 1.3690 will empower developing of a more deep downtrend, which will have lowering target set to level of a strong support 1.3285, and also probably to 1.3160. But those levels should be considered later, basing on situation over the market. Up to this moment, the situation in dollar is generally saying about dropping to level 1.3550, and we should be expecting that to happen in nearest future.


----------



## caribean

MRC & Co said:


> Thanks for the feedback guys.
> 
> I will also be trading the futures Caribean.  I'm sure we will cross paths along the way and exchange a few hands!




Good luck man, i have settled on this beasty, i get frustrated sometimes, and look elsewhere, but always come back to "her", i think it's a "her"
if you get to know her moods, and addapt your trading methods accordingly, you will do well.


----------



## AbundantIncome

wow .. another whip tonight ? 

i am always confused what to do in this circumstance as they mess up my chart and am too scared to get in again !!!

Hope you were all protected well ...

Cheers


----------



## Jason Rogers

EUR/USD certainly has been whipping back and forth the past week between 1.41 and 1.38.  Somewhat of a triangle forming on a daily chart, but more so if you're looking at GBP/USD and NZD/USD. Could be building up for a large breakout.



AbundantIncome said:


> wow .. another whip tonight ?
> 
> i am always confused what to do in this circumstance as they mess up my chart and am too scared to get in again !!!
> 
> Hope you were all protected well ...
> 
> Cheers


----------



## Jason Rogers

A reminder for everyone that the monthly NFP report for the US is being released this week on Thursday instead of the typical Friday (first friday of every month).


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
   The pair had bounced off level 1.4200 (“E” trend line) again, what lead to emerging of another massive selling wave (which was confident this time).

   The pair went under level 1.4035 and broke the lower bound of “a-a+” 4-hours uptrend on its way down, setting the pair’s lowering target to support level 1.3850 (“neckline”) – right where we are now moving to.

   A correction may then start from that support; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.4000, from which the pair will go back to 1.3850. In case the pair drops below level
1.3820, it will clear the road to the lowering target at support level 1.3650 (“D” trend line).

Trend status: side trend in transition to downtrend
Current resistances: 1.4055
Supports: 1.3960, 1.3850


----------



## James Austin

apologies for this basic question, but what are the best hours for trading (day trading) EURUSD?

and, if its through the aussie night, what hours are best for during aussie day time?

thanks

JA


----------



## Naked shorts

James Austin said:


> apologies for this basic question, but what are the best hours for trading (day trading) EURUSD?
> 
> and, if its through the aussie night, what hours are best for during aussie day time?
> 
> thanks
> 
> JA




I normally get on about 5pm, and finish at 2:30am.

Its most active between 11:00pm  and 3:00am.

Wouldn't consider trading during the day, but it is _possible_.


----------



## SlideLow

wow nice times,

I guess you dont 9-5 it


----------



## cashflow_08

Long view on Euro (correct me if im wrong) with elliot/fibs:
-----------------------------------------------------
Weekly:
Currently on a bearish corrective side (Wave C) and on mtoive wave 4 within the wave C. Doing a fib study on how long wave 4 would go,  tell us that there still some juice left about 500-800 pips up before retracing down.

Daily:
Wave two looks like its being completed. Wave 3 may commence but all confirmation of wave 3 will appear after the breakout of the near fractal. Also note a bullish symmetrical triangle is in current formation (not valid now), if it will complete than at point e, we would have a early indication that wave 2 may have started and would look to long 200-300 pips depending on fib study.
Just my  2 cents

Daily chart attached

Cheers


----------



## i_in

cashflow_08 said:


> Long view on Euro (correct me if im wrong) with elliot/fibs:
> -----------------------------------------------------
> Weekly:
> Currently on a bearish corrective side (Wave C) and on mtoive wave 4 within the wave C. Doing a fib study on how long wave 4 would go,  tell us that there still some juice left about 500-800 pips up before retracing down.
> 
> Daily:
> Wave two looks like its being completed. Wave 3 may commence but all confirmation of wave 3 will appear after the breakout of the near fractal. Also note a bullish symmetrical triangle is in current formation (not valid now), if it will complete than at point e, we would have a early indication that wave 2 may have started and would look to long 200-300 pips depending on fib study.
> Just my  2 cents
> 
> Daily chart attached
> 
> Cheers




my count .....
(1) - 5 1.47
gl&gt


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cashflow_08 said:


> Long view on Euro (correct me if im wrong) with elliot/fibs:
> -----------------------------------------------------
> Weekly:
> Currently on a bearish corrective side (Wave C) and on mtoive wave 4 within the wave C. Doing a fib study on how long wave 4 would go,  tell us that there still some juice left about 500-800 pips up before retracing down.
> 
> Daily:
> Wave two looks like its being completed. Wave 3 may commence but all confirmation of wave 3 will appear after the breakout of the near fractal. Also note a bullish symmetrical triangle is in current formation (not valid now), if it will complete than at point e, we would have a early indication that wave 2 may have started and would look to long 200-300 pips depending on fib study.
> Just my  2 cents
> 
> Daily chart attached
> 
> Cheers




I had the same idea as u cash.....

still think we could have a pull back as well.

My post from FF

_*chart shows a break out of the triangle wedge... this base formed support on a resistance high that shows a normal trend.

looking for a new move up to the high with a further target at 1.45200

***Target (1) 1.4300****

lets see what happens..............*_


----------



## cashflow_08

Broke the last fractal and triangle. Heading up to TP1 at 1.4340. Its wave 2 short-term, so i guess it can carry on till 14500 hopefuly. As soon as i see weekly heading up in the same direction, i would adjust my t/p higher due to the three higher t.f agreement D,W,M (long)= trading with the trend. Would do it after waiting for the consolidation box period to be broken in weekly.

Good luck..


----------



## James Austin

hello,

been exploring Fx for first time, could someone please tell me, are EURUSD and AUSUSD significantly correlated?

thanks

JA


----------



## supermatt

USD is the second currency so its related in that if usd is stronger or weaker the currency in the first position will either go up or down. Read this graph it will tell you the relationships 

http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation-table


----------



## James Austin

terrific supermatt,
overlay charts for these 2 and they are following very similar trajectory, at least presently




supermatt said:


> USD is the second currency so its related in that if usd is stronger or weaker the currency in the first position will either go up or down. Read this graph it will tell you the relationships
> 
> http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation-table


----------



## >Apocalypto<

things going to plan on the E/$ daily.

I did not think we would get past that resistance with out some selling.

This is a critical point for the pattern. I am still bullish as to my last post. If the selling moves back to the base blue dot then this will need a second look. why??, cuz the price going back to 1.3800 or under will indicate a failed push out and set up a possible distribution top, IMO. 

as long as the pattern in play holds, i am still looking to 1.4500.

cheers,


----------



## Real1ty

I am awaiting a clear signal on this pair and the weekly Ichimoku shows why.

There have been a few attempts to break through the top of the kumo but they have all been defeated.

There is certainly bullish potential but i will await confirmation before i commit to a long term trade but there are still plenty of short term trades to be had.


----------



## Real1ty

I have also added the 100day SMA to this chart and it may also tell a story.

A confirmed break of this will have me quite bullish


----------



## cashflow_08

Hi guys,

Im making a big step into intraday trading as Im home most of the time. Can anyone supply me a good time to trade euro/usd and euro/gbp 15min when a trendy(non-range) situation occurs often, hence which session is the best to trade?

Much appreciated.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

10pm to 4am.


----------



## Naked shorts

So anyone else playing this tonight? What is everyone thoughts?

I think we will head down and break previous support before coming back up for some air.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Naked shorts said:


> So anyone else playing this tonight? What is everyone thoughts?
> 
> I think we will head down and break previous support before coming back up for some air.




old fashion pip feast from 4 till now on the cable. have not had a night this sweet in a while. all the signals had real follow though!

 $$  $$

will put a E/$ chart up tomorrow


----------



## Naked shorts

>Apocalypto< said:


> old fashion pip feast from 4 till now on the cable. have not had a night this sweet in a while. all the signals had real follow though!
> 
> $$  $$
> 
> will put a E/$ chart up tomorrow




Are you trading gbp/jpy? because god-dam it looks like it favored trend followers tonight, 

Had a **** night on e/u as I keep getting burnt expecting a turn around ... but i am trading a smaller size as i went through a bad trading slump last week 

Going to go drink myself to sleep.


----------



## Naked shorts

This is how yesterday turned out. As you can see my prediction was somewhat accurate ( I didn't expect it to fall as far as it did).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Naked shorts said:


> Are you trading gbp/jpy?




No, I stick to the cable and also look at the swissy. Have made a few trades on the GBP/JPY but's a killer....


----------



## i_in

i_in said:


> my count .....
> (1) - 5 1.47
> gl&gt




I'm sorry but previous count is completely wrong! anyway the target is the same.
no retracement during Asia , then again rally towards 1.45 , then target 1.47 - retrace 1.43 and go up ...

gl&gt


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Question for the intraday traders of Euro/USD who do so in the European open timezone, which other instruments do you recommend watching for correlations?
> 
> I will be joining your clan for a few stabs at this instrument in about a week.




I recently found this correlation table, it might be of use to you.

http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/charts_data/fxcorrelations.shtml


----------



## Real1ty

Further downside should be seen from here and this chart supplied is quite interesting and i have supplied a link for the full article which also contains some Wave analysis but i don't use that at all.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Euro___US_Dollar_Reversal_1249941681064.html







As per my previously supplied Ichimoku charts (Weekly) the Euro was unable to successfully break the upper Kumo cloud, after several attempts, or the 100SMA.


----------



## Naked shorts

My predictions for tonight.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Naked shorts said:


> My predictions for tonight.




What's a contraian??


----------



## rasta

Hi all,

Im new to this forum; good to see some Euro discussion. Do any of you trade just plain S/R levels - no other indicators?

For me, the 1.4100 level seems pretty strong. I am looking to buy from there. Let see


----------



## Naked shorts

rasta said:


> Hi all,
> 
> Im new to this forum; good to see some Euro discussion. Do any of you trade just plain S/R levels - no other indicators?
> 
> For me, the 1.4100 level seems pretty strong. I am looking to buy from there. Let see




Yes pretty much all my trading is from S/R levels, I use volume as well (helps me figure out future S/R levels). Other things I use are the DOM and the time and sales window.


----------



## Mr J

I trade S&R but I do use squiggley lines - horizontals, trendlines, pivot points and the occasional pitchfork. I'm not a fan of cluttering up a chart, but these ones provide solid places of interest for S&R.


----------



## James Austin

new to Fx and not finding as many opportunities recently

are the Fx'ers out there finding the markets to have slowed somewhat? or are present conditions, standard Fx market behaviour?

perhaps Euro/US holiday season!

thanks


----------



## Real1ty

James Austin said:


> new to Fx and not finding as many opportunities recently
> 
> are the Fx'ers out there finding the markets to have slowed somewhat? or are present conditions, standard Fx market behaviour?
> 
> perhaps Euro/US holiday season!
> 
> thanks




There has been a bit of range bound trading on many currencies but recently there have been some reasonable moves in many.

For example the EURUSD was down about 350 pips in 4 days.
GBPUSD down about 550 pips, USDCAD up 400+ etc etc

It might depend on what TF you are trading and what session you trade as to opportunities presented.

I trade more medium term TF and play around with a few smaller trades during the London and US sessions as Asian trading is very slow.


----------



## Kryzz

Bit of a bullish flag building here with the euro? Hourly chart attached


----------



## Mr J

Yes, I got a little earlier today. Bounce off the daily trendline, looking to ride it for 100-150 pips, then see what happens.


----------



## strategist

EUR/USD

H4 graph
   The pair keeps trading along a sideways trend (“O-O+”) between two key levels – 1.4390 (a very strong resistance) and 1.4215 (turning level). This trend is transforming into a “triangle” figure, which is being formed now and has its top at level 1.4425, where the 4th wave of this figure is supposed to emerge. Basically, we may consider the figure as such that will turn the sideways trend either upwards or downwards, so we should take the levels into consideration anyway.

   There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair breaks above level 1.4425, the “triangle” figure may be treated as an uptrend-continuing figure. This way, the market sets the target of growth to level 1.4580. However, there is a very strong resistance on the way up – level 1.4500 (the higher boundary of “C-C+” sideways trend weekly). So, we may try to open buy positions above 1.4425, then it is necessary to close them right before approaching 1.4500 and buy additionally only upon break above ~1.4545.

2. The “triangle” figure is becoming the figure bearing a downtrend in case the pair breaks below level 1.4215 (gets below “B”  and “O” trend lines); in such case the pair will get to essential support 1.4085 (“P” trend lines).
Personal prejudice:
   I wouldn’t trade for buying while the pair is located above level 1.4545, since there are a whole lot of important resistances, which won’t let the market to pass them easily – the market is going to twitch. It is more secure to sell after drop below level 1.4215 with the target set to 1.4085.


----------



## Kryzz

Looks like that diagonal support just got smashed...back down to 1.400ish if 1.4200 doesn't hold?


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
   The pair is still following the sideways trading pattern between key levels 1.4360 and 1.4175, and correction won’t be finished until one of those levels is passed.

   Variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair retreats to support 1.4175 again, then drops below level 1.4135. In such case it will clear the road of lowering to level 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).
2. The pair rises above level 1.4360. In such case it will clear the road of growth to level 1.4500 (the higher bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).


----------



## Kryzz

Anyone gonna be shorting if/when the euro gets to 375ish, i reckon i will,   assuming it stalls


----------



## Kryzz

short order in, selling at 323


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
   The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.

   If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).


----------



## Frank D

*Euro/USD Monthly and the Spiral filter 5-day pattern*

_“Trend guide for the euro is 1.4262 and price should continue up into September's highs and with a max move towards the Quarterly highs @ 1.4870...

As long as price is above 1.4262 then the trend is UP, with a September Rally”_....5th September Weekly Report.


This is a follow through from the MAY high breakout, a retest of the
 Breakout in June:- verify the break…

And then continue higher towards the 3rd Quarter highs


----------



## i_in

closing on weekly above 1.47 is a strong signal for 1.6+

buy euro on dip gl&gt


----------



## Mr J

Certainly seems like we're consolidating for the next step up.


----------



## Kryzz

wow, didn't like 1.46 much at all, note to self: don't trade round numbers


----------



## Frank D

*Euro Monthly*

September UP move confirmed with the friday close above:- break 
and extend pattern into 1.4870


----------



## i_in

buy euro and do not think so much


----------



## i_in

Funny, I don't hear nobody to buying usd longer?!


----------



## i_in

my vision is that has one more "c" to complete C - target 4820
retrace should be go to round about 4550
for those of you who think to try with short stop above 4850
GL/GT


----------



## Stormin_Norman

yeah i back a retrace. the asian central banks especially will be looking to weaken their currencies.

with the chinese off all week, there's been noone around to defend the USD this week.


----------



## i_in

I think C wave already completed


----------



## Kryzz

Breaking out?


----------



## strategist

*EUR/USD forecast*

H4 graph
The pair is trading along an uptrend, but today it made a rather huge leap down which contradicted the tendency of further upside. Drop below level 1.5095 and especially 1.5040 will state the pair’s serious intention to begin the trend’s turn.

In case the pair gets under level 1.5005, it will try to drop below level 1.4955 then. If that happens, the next drop target will be set to level 1.4865 – a key support (the lower bound of “F-F+” weekly uptrend).

I’m not seeing any signals of trend’s continuation so far.


----------



## itso

so, i think we can continue with the same simple strategy buy eur, cad, gbp and the rest there against usd 
gl&gt


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
After rapid upside lately the pair didn’t manage to update level 1.5061, which speaks about a potential of continuation of sideways trend’s forming within the range between levels 1.5050 (support) and 1.4875 (resistance).

Currently the market is closing at a temporary support level 1.4955, but as long as it stays below 1.5050 and above 1.4955 it resides a neutral zone.

Therefore, there are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4955, it will head to a key support 1.4875. Next, in the prospects, if the market will manage to get under that support, it will go to an intermediate support 1.4790, and further to 1.4650 (basically, the market tends to go this way).
2. If the pair rises above resistance level 1.5050, it will get to level 1.5125, and probably even to 1.5200.

Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.4955 with the target at 1.4875.
Buy above 1.5050 with the target at 1.5125.


----------



## Naked shorts

Bam NFPs! that was fun. will be very interesting to see if it breaks down further in the next few days after that release. Will load up shorts like a madman if it does 	:nuts::nuts:


----------



## Wysiwyg

Naked shorts said:


> Bam NFPs! that was fun. will be very interesting to see if it breaks down further in the next few days after that release. Will load up shorts like a madman if it does 	:nuts::nuts:




That gradual price decline before the announcement is a big suck for newbies that think the price is going to tank so load up shorts. One coin flip on which way was enough for me.


----------



## Naked shorts

Wysiwyg said:


> That gradual price decline before the announcement is a big suck for newbies that think the price is going to tank so load up shorts.




Guess im not a newbie then


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

I don't normally look at or trade the EURUSD, but I decided to check it out and this is a 1 minute chart, what increments does it move in? I take it from A to B is around 50 pips? 1.3670 - 1.3720? Is that worth anything if someone was to trade it? 

Seems to be trending up really nice, actually most things are just now. 

Cheers


----------



## Mr J

Yes, 0.0001 for a pip, but 0.00001 for the smallest increment.


----------



## SeM0s

has a longer term downtrend started in eur/usd?


----------



## SeM0s

most probably eur/usd is in a fourth wave triangle one of the running triangle categories. Any comments?


----------



## i_in

SeM0s said:


> has a longer term downtrend started in eur/usd?



no, you wait at the end of this year 1.6


SeM0s said:


> most probably eur/usd is in a fourth wave triangle one of the running triangle categories. Any comments?



and yes. Now if  see 4080 is a good sell for 3490 end of the correction. simple strategy:>
 GL/GT


----------



## Jack.c

SeM0s said:


> has a longer term downtrend started in eur/usd?





Personally I feel a longer term downtrend has started in the EU, and is already well under way. It has broken the major uptrend for the past year very strongly, and also fundamentally, with Greece's problems along with problems in other Countries in the euro zone  that would need to be dealt with after Greece, will only weigh down on the euro.
Also US economy may be beginning to stabilizing.

Just my view.


----------



## MRC & Co

tywo said:


> looks like the euro is very close to starting its next leg lower... this should indicate lower prices for equities... charts are posted on my blog if anyone is interested.




Quite the opposite I think.  I think we've seen the bottom here or there abouts.

See the GBP last night, absolute free-fall and Euro still couldn't catch fire with it (strong sign), GBP now looks like it's also seen a bottom, so this correlation should hold and both should bounce together.

I also don't buy the breakdown of 'the risk trade', i.e. Euro/GBP used to correlate with Oil, equities and AUD, but that has broken down recently.  Think this will resume to some extent and Euro/GBP will now play short-term catch-up.

Just my reasoning on this one.


----------



## MRC & Co

Srry, when I say EUR/GBP, I mean EUR & GBP, not the pair itself.


----------



## strategist

*EUR/USD forecast*

H4 graph
The pair is following a sideways trading pattern, partially leaving the “B-B+” daily downtrend. A potential of uptrend development emerged after the Friday payrolls release followed by getting to level 1.3620. The target of that potential uptrend would be found at level 1.3800. We may try to buy from 1.3820 with the target at 1.3800 and stop loss below 1.3560.








Daily graph
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

EURUSD Short....

wanted to post this while it was live but TP hit.....

First blue line my stop ent second blue line the TP +23 -comms

Tp placed in this area due to the congestion... if I was going to pick any type of support that's my best bet.... lucky for me it made it to the mid area. I still think it has some down side, but that's all for me on this run unless another very nice signal comes up.

Good Trading....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

>Apocalypto< said:


> EURUSD Short....
> 
> wanted to post this while it was live but TP hit.....
> 
> First blue line my stop ent second blue line the TP +23 -comms
> 
> Tp placed in this area due to the congestion... if I was going to pick any type of support that's my best bet.... lucky for me it made it to the mid area. I still think it has some down side, but that's all for me on this run unless another very nice signal comes up.
> 
> Good Trading....




So what was your reason for getting out? Seems kind of weird to exit there in the middle, likely to go down to 60ish at least I would have thought, possibly lower. Just interested in thoughts, as your post was a little hard to understand where your actual position was.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So what was your reason for getting out? Seems kind of weird to exit there in the middle, *likely* to go down to 60ish at least I would have thought, possibly lower. Just interested in thoughts, as your post was a little hard to understand where your actual position was.




position opened by STP at .3605 tp hit at .3582..... the price bounced around there.... Now I never think likely to 60ish as the range congestion was thick in that area.... it did get to 60ish but that's what happened I had no idea it would happen. 20+ was enough for me. each to there own... i never aim for to much 20+ and I am looking for the door....... that also depends on the pair.... Euro 20-30 enough.. GBPAUD 50-70 is enough. depends on the areas


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

>Apocalypto< said:


> position opened by STP at .3605 tp hit at .3582..... the price bounced around there.... Now I never think likely to 60ish as the range congestion was thick in that area.... it did get to 60ish but that's what happened I had no idea it would happen. 20+ was enough for me. each to there own... i never aim for to much 20+ and I am looking for the door....... that also depends on the pair.... Euro 20-30 enough.. GBPAUD 50+ is the minimum.




Fair enough then  

Personally would have held longer, got added support from most other things falling currently too, but well done, you got what you wanted out of it, can't complain with that!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Fair enough then
> 
> Personally would have held longer, got added support from most other things falling currently too, but well done, you got what you wanted out of it, can't complain with that!




to be honest with you.

I am a reformed scalper (1min GBPJPY) so I do have a ingrained tendency to take smaller profit targets at times.... I did see where the euro got to but as I am out of the trade it's after the fact... so no tears from me. 

23 off it is fine. Hope your short or long and picking something up

Cheers

**PS just looked again, down she goes!** no remorse


----------



## Kryzz

>Apocalypto< said:


> to be honest with you.
> 
> I am a reformed scalper (1min GBPJPY) so I do have a ingrained tendency to take smaller profit targets at times.... I did see where the euro got to but as I am out of the trade it's after the fact... so no tears from me.
> 
> If you can hold your gut, good going!
> 
> 23 off it is fine.
> 
> Cheers




Is this still the floor trader method apocalypto, on a longer tf? why the change to longer term trading if you don't mind me asking, more profitable you find?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kryzz said:


> Is this still the floor trader method apocalypto, on a longer tf? why the change to longer term trading if you don't mind me asking, more profitable you find?




Hi Shaun,

Yes still using the floor trader method for all my trading.

Moved off the 1min as it's a damn lot of work on FX, I mean real hard work.... it was taking over my time and some nights I could not get off the comp for 4 hours straight.... the reward I was getting to the life style was not worth it. I have to admit I have found FX under 15min very very challenging, concentration required is enormous. 

I moved to 60 min, for 1 better life style and two more profit in the moves. This also allows me to focus on more pairs... 4 to be exact. 

I moved over in Jan to 15min then to 60min. Yes I can say for the new year it has been profitable.... 

What i can say for sure is I enjoy this time frame a lot more. I also trade the SPI but that's on 5min for now.... 

Good Trading


----------



## marketsurfer

We went long the EUR/USD @1.3666.  Expecting 1000 pips plus of upside here
Holding Long.


----------



## strategist

H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend having the upside target seen at level 1.3800 (level of the 4th wave completion). This level has been reached, leading the pair to some kind of crossroad. There are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair continues upside above level 1.3800 (“B+” trendline), the next target will be set to level 1.3970 (2 February high).
2. In case the correction heads down below level 1.3800 and the pair gets under 1.3680, it will continue moving down with the target seen at 1.3555 and then even lower. However, it would be better to consider this (downside) variant a little later, on 16 March, when US basic rates survey will be released.







Daily forecast
The pair is trading along the “F-F+” downtrend, however after the Friday payrolls release there appeared signs of an upside towards level 1.3805, which is the 4th (Elliot’s) wave. Upon getting to that level, the 5th down-trending wave is supposed to develop having the target at level 1.2870..







Weekly forecast
The pair is trading along the downtrend, having the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the neckline). The 4th correctional wave is being formed now. It has its top at levels 1.3800 - 1.3970. In case the pair rises above level 1.4000 there is a probability of downtrend’s cancellation. If so, the upside target will be set to level 1.4600. Meanwhile, I expect the market to turn from the levels stated above with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th downwave).


----------



## i_in

do you have any alternative count?! cause it's definitely not believable even 3090 is unlikely
GL&GT


----------



## WaveSurfer

>Apocalypto< said:


> .......Yes still using the floor trader method for all my trading........




What's that mate? Of all the stuff (and crap) I've read on trading, never came across that method before...

Would this be on the right track?

http://www.trading-naked.com/FloorTraderMethod.htm

No drama if it's a Q I shouldn't be asking.

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

WaveSurfer said:


> What's that mate? Of all the stuff (and crap) I've read on trading, never came across that method before...
> 
> Would this be on the right track?
> 
> http://www.trading-naked.com/FloorTraderMethod.htm
> 
> No drama if it's a Q I shouldn't be asking.
> 
> Cheers




yep, that's the one


----------



## WaveSurfer

professor_frink said:


> yep, that's the one




Cheers Professor.

Not the prettiest of sites that one, seems to have some good info though.

Cheers again matey.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

WaveSurfer said:


> Cheers Professor.
> 
> Not the prettiest of sites that one, seems to have some good info though.
> 
> Cheers again matey.




Hi WS,

Yep that's the site and system. I have added at ATR to help with confirmation.

I take it you are a EW practitioner? 

Good trading to you.............


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Tonight's Trade, sorry it's after the event.

shorted EURUSD

Retraced to the 18 WMA sold on the break of the retrace low. ATR supported the sell signal.

First blue line is ent, 1.3736 second limit exit at 1.3710. 

Good trading.


----------



## WaveSurfer

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi WS,
> 
> Yep that's the site and system. I have added at ATR to help with confirmation.
> 
> I take it you are a EW practitioner?
> 
> Good trading to you.............




Hey buddy.

Nice KISS system you have cottoned onto. I happened to take the exact same trade. Using my own method (2 bar reversal) and noticed the FTM gave somewhat of a signal too. I'm still in the trade myself, will she how price reacts around the 3700 area and either pull the pin or add in another lot.

No mate, not an EW practitioner. I would say EW novice (very novice lol). But yea, I try to look for the 3 wave pull backs and 5 wave impulses. Very, very basic counts.

Good trading to yourself too mate.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

to keep things real in here with my trading, posting losses is a must. 

just lost on a EURGBP trade total loss 15.3 ppips or with com 45.9 pounds. or abouts.

Took a normal signal that I post up... just this time it did not work out.

cheers, & good trading.


----------



## strategist

H1 graph
The pair is trading along a downtrend. The way down to support 1.3555 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend) became clear after the pair got under level 1.3655. Level 1.3580, stated in the previous forecast, provided some support, however this support is temporary and the pair is unlikely to get above level 1.3625.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair continues downtrend from the current level or from resistance 1.3680, with the drop target seen at level 1.3555.
2. Taking into consideration variant #1, if the pair eventually gets to support 1.3555, it may attempt starting an uptrend from there. In such case, if the pair manages to rise above 1.3615, further upside to resistance level 1.3680 will be very probable.

Moreover, if resistance 1.3680 is unable to keep the pair from rising and it gets over level 1.3715, we may expect reaching of 1.3770 - but this variant is least probable.
If the pair manages to retreat below 1.3510 after getting to level 1.3555, it will clear the way to the drop target at level 1.3450 (several last weeks’ low).





Support:
1.3580 and 1.3555 (key one)

Resistance:
1.3625 and 1.3680 (key one)


----------



## strategist

Forecast for the next week, from March 22 to 26. H4 graph (dated 03/22/10)
The pair is trading along a downtrend. By getting under level 1.3650 the pair gained an opportunity to drop to level 1.3550 (“B” trendline - the lower bound of daily uptrend). At the moment the market is striving to continue the downtrend and eventually get under key level 1.3500.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair continues to drop and goes below level 1.3500 (with or without rebound from level 1.3580, which is highly populated with trendlines), the pair will get next drop target at level 1.3285. Resistance 1.3580 is a strong level, and the pair is unlikely to rise above it.

2. Alternative variant. If the pair loses its downside momentum, fails holding ground below 1.3500 and rises above 1.3600, it will get an opportunity to reach resistance level 1.3680. This level is a strong resistance and so we should expect downtrend’s continuation after the pair gets to it. This is due to the fact that we are still in the “F-F+” weekly downtrend, which has the drop target at level 1.2870.









Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)
By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave. Now the drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:

1. If the downtrend continues and the pair drops below level 1.3500 (out of the “B-B+” trend boundaries), the bearish sentiment will be amplified. In such case the pair will get to level 1.2870.
Level 1.3285 is an intermediate support, which may evolve a correction to resistance 1.3520 followed by rebound and downtrend’s continuation with the drop target seen at 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then goes above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600.










Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)
The development of 5-wave downtrend is in progress. By rebounding from key level 1.3800 the pair has completed the 4th correctional wave and now its drop target is seen at level 1.2870 (the 5th wave’s target).
Getting to 1.2870 is probable within the next 20-30 days, after which the market will begin forming a trend-turning/continuing figure. Forming of that figure may take about a month.

Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. Direct drop to level 1.2870.

2. If the pair fails consolidating below level 1.3500 and then rises above level 1.3800, the downtrend will fade out and we will expect the pair to rise to level 1.4350 and also to 1.4600


----------



## strategist

Forecast for this week, 05-09. H4 graph

The pair is trading along an uptrend; however, the “S” trendline’s break and also the picture of the daily trend, where the market is within a downtrend, speak in favor of downtrend development with the drop target seen at level 1.3190 (“F” trendline). 

After the pair gets under level 1.3430, the downside momentum will grow stronger. Level 1.3530 is the resistance for now; rising above this level will be a signal of downtrend cancellation. If so, next resistance will be found at level 1.3630, and then the key resistance at 1.3710. But still, we should not count on uptrend development, because there is a large cloud of resistance levels above 1.3530 and up to 1.3710. If the pair eventually rises above 1.3740, the “forecast for the next month” takes effect.


----------



## Naked shorts

WOW what a day, never thought a double downgrade by Fitch would have moved it so much. I do think its clear sailing from here for the euro now the bailout package is supposedly been finalized (rumor atm, but the whole market believes it). This should lead the way for greater risk appitite around the world and we might see the start of another USD carry trade


----------



## Naked shorts

Naked shorts said:


> This should lead the way for greater risk appitite around the world and we might see the start of another USD carry trade




Until of course, Portugal needs a bailout too.

http://www.cmavision.com/images/uploads/docs/CMA_Global_Sovereign_Credit_Risk_Report_Q1_2010.pdf


----------



## strategist

*Forecast for this week, 26-30. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)*
The pair has left the downtrend (black dotted) after rebounding from support level 1.3200, which speaks about development of an uptrend at the moment. As long as the pair is trading above support level 1.3290, the upside target is seen at resistance cloud 1.3457 – 1.3490. Development of the next downtrend may be expected to begin from that cloud, but it won’t be confident until the pair goes under level 1.3383. In such case it will get to support 1.3300, and if it continues to go down, it will eventually find itself at support 1.3220.








*Forecast for this month, April - May. Daily graph (dated 04/26/10)*
The pair has left the “B-B+” correctional uptrend, which speaks about development of a downtrend at the moment with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 – the fifth wave’s target.

Level 1.3200 offered a fair support for the pair and now we may expect a slight correction towards resistance level 1.3490, from where the downtrend development will be resumed. A more confident downtrend will begin after the pair goes under levels 1.3270 and 1.3200, after that it will head to intermediate support 1.3090 (“F” trendline) and then to target level 1.2870.

Uptrend development may begin if the pair rises above resistance 1.3584 (leaves the “F-F+” channel), after which it will head to intermediate resistance 1.3770, and if it gets over it the next upside target will be set to level 1.3960.


----------



## jonojpsg

strategist said:


> *Forecast for this week, 26-30. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)*
> The pair has left the downtrend (black dotted) after rebounding from support level 1.3200, which speaks about development of an uptrend at the moment. *As long as the pair is trading above support level 1.3290*, the upside target is seen at resistance cloud 1.3457 – 1.3490. Development of the next downtrend may be expected to begin from that cloud, but it won’t be confident until the pair goes under level 1.3383. In such case it will get to support 1.3300, and if it continues to go down, it will eventually find itself at support 1.3220.




Just sneaking under 1.3290 at the moment - on a fundamental level, the news re Portugal now has me thinking this pair will definitely be heading back down into the major downtrend that was established from December until the bailout finally got organised a couple of weeks ago.


----------



## strategist

*EURUSD forecast*

Forecast for the week, 05/17 – 05/21
The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1865. Level 1.2200 is serving as an intermediate resistance. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.2500.

Should the pair rise above level 1.2500, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.2800. If the market moves on above that level, the upside momentum will grow stronger and the next target will be seen at intermediate resistance level 1.2980, and then at major resistance 1.3200.







Monthly forecast, May – June
The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1655. Intermediate supports are seen at levels 1.2200 and 1.1865. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above level 1.2800.

Should the pair rise above level 1.2800, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.3100. If the market moves on above level 1.3100, the upside momentum will grow stronger and the next target will be seen at intermediate resistance level 1.3660. If the market gets over that target, it will reach resistance 1.4345.







Quarterly forecast, May – July
The pair dropped below level 1.2700, where the neckline of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure resided. That caused the downside momentum to grow stronger. The drop target is currently seen at level 1.1655. If the market goes below that level, it will reach level 1.000.

An uptrend may be started upon the pair’s rising above level 1.3100. Then the market will go up to resistance level 1.4630 (“Q” trendline).







Yearly forecast, 2010 – 2011.
The pair dropped below level 1.2700, where the neckline of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure resided. That caused the downside momentum to grow stronger. The drop target is currently seen around 0.9890 – 1.0200. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.3100. Intermediate resistances are currently seen at levels 1.1655 and 1.000.

The figure will be cancelled and an uptrend will be started in case the pair rises above 1.3100. Then the upside target will be set at resistance level 1.4630.


----------



## iced earth

_*EUR/USD : 25 MAY 2010:*_

As predicted before( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...3&postcount=27) , the pair is moving in a bearish channel, also in weekly view , we have a pull back after breaking the valid long term resistance line.


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## iced earth

EUR/USD: 2 June 2010:

   The pair could not break up the upper line of the bearish channel (many times touched it, make it more valid) - now we can see a bearish triangle has formed within this channel. The goal of this tri could be at the lower line of the channel (pic 1)

in weekly view the long term resistance line is been break down ( after one short pull back as I posted above) - now we can see the most important resistance is the low of Aug 2005 around 1.16    (pic 2) - this target is the same as the bearish triangle and channel target as mentioned above.


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## MRC & Co

"Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge

I agree - Spain should get away it's last batch of bond supply in just over two hours, markets are frontrunning this already as the potential 'inflection point', yield spreads on EUR periphery vs EUR core should come in, and the EUR should get a kick up.  Lots of shorts still in positions in IMM data, GS trying to feed them to their clients.  

Well played GS, but the mug punter and plenty more hedgies can play that same game if you can spot it!

Salud!


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## white_goodman

hmmm


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## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> "Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge
> 
> I agree - Spain should get away it's last batch of bond supply in just over two hours, markets are frontrunning this already as the potential 'inflection point', yield spreads on EUR periphery vs EUR core should come in, and the EUR should get a kick up.  Lots of shorts still in positions in IMM data, GS trying to feed them to their clients.
> 
> Well played GS, but the mug punter and plenty more hedgies can play that same game if you can spot it!
> 
> Salud!



Good call Mr C. Very nice little pop. Funny how the AUDJPY etc got most the lift.


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## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Good call Mr C. Very nice little pop. Funny how the AUDJPY etc got most the lift.




Thx mate!  

Yeh, given the 'risk rally' another little booster, a final sucker for the bulls I would imagine with lead indicators showing Q2 and Q3 should be very soft (obviously, data not confirming that yet, other than NFPs which everybody got a bit over-excited about).

Everyone toast their glass of Don Perignon to GS, the second best FOREX firm in the world!


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## Wysiwyg

Non farm, non government estimated employment changes less than 1/4 of those forecast. Apparently this estimated data is in alignment with the  actual employment figures released this Friday.


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## Wysiwyg

strategist said:


> *EURUSD forecast*
> 
> *The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support* *level 1.1865*. Level 1.2200 is serving as an intermediate resistance. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.2500.




Well done. The low put in on the 7th June was 1.1875 and within 10 pips. Highly accurate forecast. Missed on the resistance level though. 

Thanks.


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## white_goodman

white_goodman said:


> hmmm




I must be of Mayan ancestry


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## ThingyMajiggy

you guys at propex trading the 6E from the order book?


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## strategist

Current trend is sideways.
The downward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement below the level of 1.3233, after that the arrival on the support level of 1.3131 will happen.
Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.3305, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.3305 and 1.3393 will happen.


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## strategist

Current trend is ascending.
Also Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.2895, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.3040 will happen.
Supports:  1.2826 and 1.2750
Resistances 1.2895 and 1.3040


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## strategist

Today chart
The pair is trading along a downtrend below the “R” trendline as well as below key resistance level 1.2750. The downside momentum will grow stronger in case the market drops below level 1.2685, which will be followed by moving down to level 1.2600. Otherwise, an uptrend may be expected to develop under condition that the pair rises above resistance level 1.2750. If so, the market will be striving to reach resistance 1.2860.







Forecast of the week, 08/23–08/27
The pair is trading along the “a-a+” downtrend. Now it is located below key resistance 1.2750 (the neckline of “head and shoulders” figure from monthly graph), which is in favor of further downtrend development with the downside targets set at support 1.2430 and probably at 1.2300. Intermediate support is found at level 1.2590. An uptrend should not be expected to start unless the pair rises above level 1.2890. If that happens, the market will then get to resistance level 1.3150. The following stronger resistance will be found at mark 1.3305.


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## strategist

Current trend is sideways.
Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.790, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.2890 will happen.
Downtrend can start its development from this levels with target on 1.2655 and in a case of the pair movement lower the level of 1.2655, after that the arrival on the support level of 1.2500 will happen.
Supports: 1.2655, 1.2500
Ressitances: 1.2750, 1.2790, 1.2890


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## Boggo

The daily chart is playing by the rules so far.
I don't have a position on it 

(click to expand)


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## Boggo

First target reached.

(click to expand)


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## sinner

white_goodman said:


> I must be of Mayan ancestry




:bowdown::bowdown::bowdown:

What now?


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## Boggo

My current Forex trading experiment/exercise has a potential trade setup forming on 30 min EUR/USD with a 4.4 R/R if it eventuates.

(click to expand)


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## Boggo

Follow up from post above.

First target reached.

(click to expand)


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## strategist

The pair is trading along an uptrend, however resistance level 1.3240 - 1.3325 keeps the pair from further upside. 
The uptrend may be expect to continue in case the market rises above resistance 1.3325, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.3485. 
An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below support level 1.3153, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.2964.
Resistances: 1.3240, 1.3325, 1.3485.
Supports: 1.3153, 1.3060, 1.2964, 1.2995


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## SeM0s

*EUR/USD December 04, 2010*

Current Price:  1.3400
Resistance Levels:  1.3410, 1.3570, 1.3740, 1.3850
Support Levels:  1.3270, 1.3100, 1.2800, 1.2630






The 1.2980 support held during the previous week and we witnessed a bounce from that level which has so far reached the 1.3400 level. We expect this rally to continue, after some correction, to the 1.3630 level in the coming days, from where we expect to see the revival of the downtrend. A clear break above the 1.3630 level will have the potential of taking the price up to the 1.4140 mark.


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## strategist

The pair is trading along an uptrend, with target set at the resistance level 1.3485 and If it keeps on moving up that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1.3670. 
An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below support level 1.3290, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.3060.
Resistances: 1.3485, 1.3670.
Supports: 1.3290, 1.3060.


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## strategist

The pair is trading along an sideways trading pattern. 
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 1.3310, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3415 and 1.3485.
An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below support level 1.3215, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.3060.
Resistances: 1.3415, 1.3485.
Supports: 1.3215, 1.3060.


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## hellodog

I think that Euro will gain versus U.S currency after France-German declarations.
However we will see monday morning.

Good Bye!


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## strategist

The pair is trading along an sideways trading pattern. 
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 1.3260, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3415.
An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below support level 1.3165, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1.3060.
Resistances: 1.3260, 1.3290, 1.3415.
Supports: 1.3165, 1.3060.


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## SeM0s

*EUR/USD 12/18/10*

Current Price 1.3180

Current Resistances: 1.3270, 1.3410, 1.3640, 1.3780
Current Supports: 1.3050, 1.2910, 1.2680, 1.2550






We still favor a test of at least the 1.3630 area, before the November 30, 2010 low is taken out. If the price tests the 1.3630 area, we would expect to see a sell off starting near that level or alternatively, in case of a clear break above the 1.3630 area, we would expect a further rally testing the November 4, 2010 highs. On the other hand, a break below the November 30, 2010 low can open doors for a further slide down in the parity.


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## strategist

*Weekly forecast, 01/03–01/07*
The pair is trading along an uptrend. But due to the fact it has reached key resistance level 1.3410, we can expect it to rebound and start a downtrend with the downside target set at support level 1.3110 and further at 1.2875. Take into consideration that a downtrend’s development from resistance 1.3410 will be just preliminary, it won’t be fully confirmed until the pair gets under level 1.3290, which will be followed by moving down to support 1.3110 (with possible consequent correction to resistance 1.3235). If the market continues going down below level 1.3110 afterwards, it will get to support 1.2875.
Continuation of an uptrend can be expected in case the pair confidently rises above resistance level 1.3410, which will be followed by moving up to resistance 1.3670.


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## ginar

Doing a few calculations ive a confluence of key levels around 13974 -13990 area . range extension of early  jan 13420 down to 12870 is one of these levels , dynamic resistance across swing highs from dec09 to nov10 another  and a calculation of percentage move down to multiyear dynamic support on usdx  adjusted upwards on eurusd . if we see these levels im willing to short heavily once we see a swing high around above levels . will do chart when and if the time comes


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## strategist

*Forecast weekly, 02/14–02/18*
The pair is trading along a downtrend which will be staying in effect until the market gets over resistance level 1.3565. Current downtrend’s target is set at support levels 1.3365–1.3290. As soon as those support levels are reached, a probability of correction towards resistance 1.3565 will emerge. Should the pair continue its way down below support 1.3290, the downside momentum will grow stronger and the market’s next downside target will be set at support 1.3110.
An uptrend will start upon the pair rises above resistance level 1.3565, which will likely be followed by getting to resistance levels 1.3725 and 1.3820.


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## garthstar

looks like top is in place 1.4247. 
im in short, looking to target the .618 at around 1.33.


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## Whiskers

Yeah, it looks like top is in to me too, although I thought it was in some time ago.

If this is a wave 5 instead of 'D' the top has to be in before 1.42815.

But I'm not convinced my triangle has been invalidated yet.

In any case it looks like the trend has to be south for awhile... doesn't it!?


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## Paulo30

I sold a few more short contracts for this during the week also.. aiming below 1.4000, I really can't see why this is staying afloat with all the Euro problems, except that some OK data came out yesterday, and the general weakness of the USD. Should see some correction this week I expect.




garthstar said:


> looks like top is in place 1.4247.
> im in short, looking to target the .618 at around 1.33.


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## kingcarmleo

Bearish on the euro, Spain is still struggling and will most likely need further bailouts.


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