# Books about calculating price movement?



## Belmont (15 March 2013)

Hey everybody.

After a few recent costly surprises in my paper trading game, I have come to the conclusion that I need to step back for a moment, and learn how to effectively calculate/predict price movement in the short term on the stock market. I tried searching through Google for some kind of lead, but it was a little annoying to wade through an ocean of internet marketers who were trying to sell me some very unprofessional looking books.

Would anybody here know of a suitable book to help a newbie out?

Any help would be greatly appreciated.


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## Alvin Purple (20 March 2013)

Belmont, in my humble opinion there is nobody that can *accurately* calculate price movement.

You may come across some method that gives you a high probability of being correct, say, 51 % of the time. Being right 51 % of the time gives you a slight edge and over time you should make some money. 

If you find something with a higher probability than 51 %, all the better.


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## tech/a (20 March 2013)

OR you could be right 30% of the time and have 4 times as much profit
as you do for each loss.

What you have found is that you have been trying to guess the market.
The best you'll ever do is *anticipate *the market/share/instrument.

It's a long journey no real short cuts as your road is your road---your findings your findings.
In the end your edge will be your edge.

My advice.
Learn what sets a stock up for a move in your direction.(There are many methods)
Learn how to manage your trade--Minimize loss,stay out of stagnant moves and stay in profitable ones.
Then how to manage your portfolio.

In the end you'll find its not that hard but you need to find out *WHAT YOU DON'T NEED TO KNOW* before
its clear what you do need to know.


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## skc (20 March 2013)

Belmont said:


> Hey everybody.
> 
> After a few recent costly surprises in my paper trading game, I have come to the conclusion that I need to step back for a moment, and learn how to effectively calculate/predict price movement in the short term on the stock market. I tried searching through Google for some kind of lead, but it was a little annoying to wade through an ocean of internet marketers who were trying to sell me some very unprofessional looking books.
> 
> ...




What do you mean by calculate / predict price movement?

Based on news, or charts or tealeaves?

The short answer is with a lot of difficulties and lacking alot in accuracy. But the best place to learn is to simply watch the market. How does it react to various news. Does it matter if we are in a bull or bear market? What were the market expectations before the event? What has the share price been doing before hand? 

All of these information will give you some hint on how/what to anticipate, but you won't be able to know in any certainty.


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## Alvin Purple (22 March 2013)

That's right.

There are no certainties. Only probabilities.


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