# Italy default/exiting Euro?



## Aussiejeff (10 November 2011)

With bond yields soaring since Oct 2010, Italy seems to be on a one way trip....

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND/chart

...or can the Euronuts save them from themselves with an additional Italian-flavoured tsunami of bits of pretty printed paper some call "money"?

... or is this their own version of End Of Days come early?


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## Calliope (10 November 2011)

Today is the first day of GFC 2.


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## Mr Z (10 November 2011)

Mo money! ---> it is the only choice other than breaking the Euro up and they don't want that.


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## Calliope (10 November 2011)

I spoke too hastily about doom and gloom over Europe. The best Treasurer in the world is on their case.



> APEC must tell Europe to act - Swan
> Treasurer Wayne Swan is urging APEC leaders to unite and tell Europe to tackle its financial crisis quickly.


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## Wysiwyg (10 November 2011)

That Berlusconi has had an interesting time as errrr leader. What a fine example of a good person.


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## young-gun (10 November 2011)

Calliope said:


> I spoke too hastily about doom and gloom over Europe. The best Treasurer in the world is on their case.




HAHA exact thoughts that ran through my mind when i read this article. calliope you almost had it, today is the day the original gfc engulfs futile attempts to fight it off.

nothing can be done to save these debt ridden nations. these ridiculos austerity measures they are trying to pass are a joke. governments account for somewhere between 30-50% of a nations spending. if they dont spend a country falls into recession. they can appear to be cutting spending, but in theory they cant. quite vicious.

italy are too big to bail out - im sure they will find a way to hold off the collapse of italy for a few weeks.

berlusconi obviously saw this coming - hence why he was trying to get out?


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## Mr Z (10 November 2011)

You are over stating the issue here... I doubt very much this will roll out anything like 2008 if only because every idiot in town is calling it.


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## young-gun (10 November 2011)

Mr Z said:


> You are over stating the issue here... I doubt very much this will roll out anything like 2008 if only because every idiot in town is calling it.




indeed it won't. the EU won't sit idly by and watch everything collapse, time for some printing. because if we have learnt anything from the previous couple of years, its that printing money fixes everything, right? as does debt restructuring. i don't know how much longer than can hold it off though, i didnt think they would get this far tbh.


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## Julia (10 November 2011)

Mr Z said:


> You are over stating the issue here... I doubt very much this will roll out anything like 2008 if only because every idiot in town is calling it.



They could  hardly do otherwise, given the reality of the situation in Europe.

However, you're right to suggest those economists with egg all over their faces as a result of failing to predict the GFC Mk I are now over-anxious to not find themselves in the same situation again.


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## drsmith (10 November 2011)

it seems the half life of the hair of the dog is getting shorter and shorter.


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## Aussiejeff (11 November 2011)

drsmith said:


> it seems the half life of the hair of the dog is getting shorter and shorter.




Indeed, Mr Market is looking and acting more like a punch drunk every day....

LOL.


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## Starcraftmazter (11 November 2011)

Mr Z said:


> You are over stating the issue here... I doubt very much this will roll out anything like 2008 if only because every idiot in town is calling it.




Much worse then?


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## Mr Z (11 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Much worse then?




No... well depends what you own BUT it will not be the goldbugs wet dream of financial Armageddon.



young-gun said:


> indeed it won't. the EU won't sit idly by and watch everything collapse, time for some printing. because if we have learnt anything from the previous couple of years, its that printing money fixes everything, right? as does debt restructuring. i don't know how much longer than can hold it off though, i didnt think they would get this far tbh.




We have even warmed up yet! When the Yanks and the Euronuts are all in the streets protesting higher prices then we will be getting closer to the end. A decade to run easily, countries will leave the Euro, US states will hit the wall.... lots more fun and money to come.

The GFC was the GFC because the situation was not transparent which froze the system totally. The commercial paper markets totally locked up well ahead of the GFC proper and if you mentioned on forums "this is going to be huge" you got shot down by EVERYONE. This time the whole world expects GFC II, every hack journo in every hack paper has flagged it expecting a repeat of 2008.... the hedge funds have worried the prices of GREAT companies to silly valuations... all singing the same tune. This is not how markets crash, this is how markets bottom. Markets crash from complacency and over valuation, we have fear and undervaluation, hell we even have "economists" now saying that the mining boom is over, if that ain't a buy signal I don't know what is!  

The critical thing with the Euro mess is that it is transparent unlike 2008. We know where the risk is and we know that in the end they will not allow failure even if it means nationalization of the wounded banks.

In the 80's we had the LDC crisis which technically should have bought the US banking system and the worlds to a crunching halt... but it didn't... because the culprits where identified ahead of time and the rules where twisted, accommodations where made, mergers happened and all that was humanly possible was done to spread the pain over a decade or so to work it out. We are in the same boat here and we will be living with the aftermath of this for a similar period of time. ---> JMO.


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## Mr Z (11 November 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Indeed, Mr Market is looking and acting more like a punch drunk every day....
> 
> LOL.




The US market is just under flat for the year... not exactly Armageddon. A volatile year but it is still standing despite the headlines.

Funny that you never hear the headline "Market ADDS x billion dollars today!" 

This action is born of thin markets and active hedge funds, there is nobody left in the room but the sharks and there is less and less to eat. The hedgies will soon turn on each other and the short squeeze will be something to behold ESPECIALLY when you consider the cash sitting on the sidelines, rate cuts and FOMO!

A BIG rally is brewing IMO.


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## young-gun (11 November 2011)

Mr Z said:


> The US market is just under flat for the year... not exactly Armageddon. A volatile year but it is still standing despite the headlines.
> 
> Funny that you never hear the headline "Market ADDS x billion dollars today!"
> 
> ...




agreed - i think it will appear to have legs, and will occur mid december MO. maybe hit 4800? possibly january,and possibly even higher. after taking that final breath of life from governments on their last legs, all will appear good! dont be fooled, this is a time to close positions, take profits, and get the hell outta there. as you said previously i think mr z - things turn sour when you least expect it, and a huge rally and a string of good news leaving people unaware and oblivious might be just what it's waiting for.


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## Mr Z (11 November 2011)

Kinda... but you are looking shorter term, there is a bigger story unfolding.


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## young-gun (11 November 2011)

Mr Z said:


> Kinda... but you are looking shorter term, there is a bigger story unfolding.




after viewing a few of your posts im unable to decide if you are bullish or bearish..


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## Mr Z (11 November 2011)

Well that all depends on what you are buying and when...!?

Bank on increased volatility until the sharks have finished feeding on themselves.

Stay nimble grasshopper... 

Generally bullish for now... sans Euronut ECG wimpout.


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## Timmy (15 November 2011)

Not sure where to post this.
This thread will have to do.





 ... Now the wait for the drones and crones to report it as offensive 


source: http://www.aptgetupdate.de/2011/11/09/about-jobs/


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## Dona Ferentes (18 May 2020)

time for a revisit?

The blow that Covid-19 has dealt functioning economies was exacerbated by nice Germany not helping Italy a month or so ago in an appeal to issue _*coronabonds*_
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...arity-in-support-of-coronabonds-idUSKBN2210NJ

Recently, the Fed singled out Italy in the latest report, basically calling a fiscal catastrophe unfolding in Italy.

Take a look at these paragraphs from the May Stability Report
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20200515.pdf


> _“In Italy, for example, additional fiscal measures could have implications for the sustainability of Italian sovereign debt, which is already elevated as a share of output.
> If debt sustainability were to materially worsen in Italy and in other highly indebted countries, it also could stress European financial institutions and lead to political tensions within the euro area. _



_



			Such a development could, in turn, affect the U.S. economy and the financial system through dollar funding markets, credit exposures, a further deterioration in risk appetite, and trade channels.”
		
Click to expand...


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