# AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis



## MARKETWAVES

*AUSSIE DOLLAR... here we go again?*

These  charts represent 2 key factors that I am trying to illustrate...

The 3rd chart pay close attention to the triple bottom formation possibilty and at the same time look at the stochastics oscillators.

*and  the  other  important  observation  is*

On the 2nd chart ...prices have rallied and hit resistance at 618%  retracement level and is selling off from since last week....  this is one of the  observations that I was trying to explain to tech/a about a month ago about  fibonacci retracement levels.

Bottom line, from the perspective of this 2nd chart in this post.... prices  haven't broken out yet....  the neckline in this head and shoulder pattern is  very important... if prices start climbing towards the neckline of .7750....  Gold and silver will probably be spiking also..

Let's watch and see if this one starts to pan out......   


*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK…* The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Pay  close  attention.....  This appears  to  be  building.....

  IMPORTANT  SUPPORT  LEVELS  .........


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Bingo !!!   

Nice one MARKETWAVES

Im in.


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## RichKid

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Looks like the AUD has hit that horizontal support at 75 again.....Just got a chart but it's gone lower. Crucial level now imo, let's see how it pans out. Still following this MW?


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Gday Richkid.... Yup looks like im going to have to pull the plug on this one.  

Be interesting to see if the support holds at these levels , but i doubt it..


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Hmmmnmn .. Yes Indeed!  here we go again....


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

RICH KID  ,,,,   

  I  am,  posting  this  5  chart  update  here  ,,,,,  pay  closer  attention  to  the  5th  chart  or  the  last  chart  in  the  group ...  This is  what I was  seeing  last  week  as  it  was  falling  of  into  the  illustrated  zone  of  aroud  the   .  7500   mark ..  What  a  bounce  huh ?

 My  eyes  are  on now  the  resistance  lines ,  or  the  so  called  neckline  of  the inverted  head  and  shoulder  pattern    that  appears  to  be  tracing  out  ....  a  sound  base  appears  to  have  been  formed  now...

   Take  a  look  .....


*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  ...THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS    * 

It is far more difficult to *Exit a trade ** than to Enter a trade *  .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ,,,

THIS IS WHY ,

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you .
 ( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM ) 


THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT  WAVES , because its giving you a probaility of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective , the better chance of success in long haul .... *(This is  called Risk to Reward )*  not  money  mangement .

Money mangement  is a topic unto  itself ,.....

*The Risk  * is determined by the diffrence between,,,the entry price and the stop price... This is the Risk...

On the other hand ...

Money mangement is based on how much CAPITAL you have trade with,,,,,, which determins how many shares or contracts ..... should you 
purchase  to enter the trade .... 

My hopes are you really understand this principle ////


               ALWAYS REMEMBER ….      

*What makes a market place is all of our diffrences of opinions ...*


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

My short term view is that its heading up.  There is good bullish signal plus all indicators are showing divergence for it to go up.  

The monthly charts are showing that its in consolidation mode so look at it going up again by a lot next month I think.  Lots of short term trading opportunities in this one.  Very predictable movements.  The decline of the USD is significant for gold.  

Also significant for the Aussie markets as it could mean a continuation of the bull market (after this months correction anyway).  Look at the relationship of our dollar to the markets.


These are just my thoughts anyway.


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Here  is  a  better  picture...
Looking  forward...  

We  didnt  break  resistance  yet... if this market breaks resistance and  closes above 7800... it will look like a break out....  and will probably not add  anything more this post...  because basically
I am not a breakout trader....  *breakouts are too late* to be  entering a market...  its just not for me....

Feel like I am chasing a market when it breaks out.....  and quite frankly I  don't like chasing anything ...


*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

HERE'S A VIEW LONG TERM .... ( FUTURES CONTRACTS )

LOOKING LIKE ITS IN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THIS LONG TERM RESISTANCE  LINE.... CAN THIS HOLD ? 
*ONLY  TIME  WILL  TELL ....*


*ALWAYS REMEMBER ….   * 

*What makes a market place is all of our differences of opinions ...
------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -*
It is far more difficult to *Exit a trade* than to *Enter a trade* .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ...

THIS IS WHY...

*When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you  .* 
( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM ) 

*THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS ....*

THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES , because its giving you a probability of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective,  the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is  called Risk to Reward )

NOT  MONEY MANAGEMENT ………

*The Risk * is determined by the difference between,,,the entry price  and the stop price...  This is the *Risk...*

On the other hand ...

*Money mangeme*nt is based on how much CAPITAL you have trade with.... which determines how many shares or contracts ....
you should purchase to enter the trade .... 

*My hopes are you really understand this principle ////* ...

It’s just the way that it is ...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK…* The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective. This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations. All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Looks like the Aussies going down again keeping within its range.  Breakout unlikely at this point in my opinion.    

Look for the Australian markets to go down.  The XJO is trying to reach 4500 again but its really weak and could mean a big selloff.  

Personally am in NAB to go down and waiting for NWS to finish its little bounce.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

And now the Aussie dollar looking like its starting its downward run.  

Notice how today, the XJO also hit its resistance of 4500 (or there abouts) and started retracing.


Is FX this easy to trade   ??

Its a lot more predictable than stocks in my opinion.  After this month, I am seriously looking at trading FX.


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## RichKid

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Nice charts DTM, Waves. I'm keeping an eye on the USD index to see how the AUD reacts.


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Gday all.  

Au$, i would take the long profit now,, give it a day or so and then go short.
hit top resistance. imo..


we shallsee


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Is FX this easy to trade   ??
> 
> Its a lot more predictable than stocks in my opinion.  After this month, I am seriously looking at trading FX.




Oops!  Where did that come from.  Gotta watch out for that economic news.


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## wayneL

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Oops!  Where did that come from.




ROFL! It heard you say that!


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Rock on     
Welcome to the boards I see that you are paying attention to the fibonacci  lines that are being posted....  Always remember to have an idea where you  want to get out when you enter a trade.... by the way stay close to DTM....   he seems to have mastered the ability to see short term moves through the  use of western oscillators...

Personally I don't care for them because they are all lagging indicators and  were created long after Eastern Technicals...  meaning Asia....  Technical  Analysis was round in the East long before the  West .....
Sorry, don't have time to elaborate  ......


HERE IS WHAT I SEE VERY WELL .....  I SEE CHART PATTERNS...  I  ESPECIALLY *SEE PATTERNS WITHIN  PATTERNS* 
NO OSCILATORS NEEDED... ( IN  MOST  CASES ) ...... 



The *AUD/USD* has remained inside of this massive channel 4 hr bar  .....
It also appears to have made a  *Triple  Bottom Formation*..
TAKE A LOOK  Maybe you agree ...?
Bottom line ....  We appear to have a Failed Bearish  HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN ....  LURKING IN THE MIDST .....

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

*...THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS * 

It is far more difficult to *Exit a trade** than to Enter a trade* .... I am sure that you have heard that said before...

THIS IS WHY.

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you.
 ( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM ) 


THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES, because its giving you a probaility of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective, the better chance of success in long haul .... *(This is called Risk to Reward )* not money  mangement.

Money mangement is a topic unto itself .....

*The Risk* is determined by the difference between the entry price and the stop price... This is the Risk...

On the other hand ...

Money mangement is based on how much CAPITAL you have trade with.... which determines how many shares or contracts ..... you should 
purchase to enter the trade .... 

My hopes are you really understand this principle ////


*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Hi Market, nice charts again.  Whats eastern technicals???  First time I've heard it and google doesn't help much.

You're right about being able to see patterns within patterns.  I couldn't see it until you pointed it out.

Anyway, from my perspective there was a breakout and whether this can hold above support in the next few days is anyones guess.  The price movements seems to have hit the bol bands and have retreated and is resting on main support and also the 200 day moving average.  My guess is that it wasn't a strong breakout where a lot of pressure was built up so I will expect it to fizzle and drop below main support.  I still think that the Aussie will climb against the greenback but maybe at the end of the month.


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?*

Hello Marketwaves and DTM  
Thanks for the welcome.
I must admit Marketwaves, im no Fibonacci man, I just use some basic stuff like support /resis, macd . and say rsi or stochastic.

But ! each to there own and I enjoy reading your charts, mw. And you obviously put a lot of work into them.
Rightly or wrongly i prefer to keep my analaysis very simple and not all the time trying to get in at the bottoms or out at the tops, i prefer to try and find the safest entry and exit, over whatever timeframe to make my trading $ .
To me its all about making the safest % on your money for the amount of risk & timing  in the mkt..
Although Im watching and trading this commodity, Im not convinced its the best for me, I feel there may be other instruments to trade that may suit my style better. 

Anyway Cheers for now...


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Anyway, from my perspective there was a breakout and whether this can hold above support in the next few days is anyones guess.  The price movements seems to have hit the bol bands and have retreated and is resting on main support and also the 200 day moving average.  My guess is that it wasn't a strong breakout where a lot of pressure was built up so I will expect it to fizzle and drop below main support.  I still think that the Aussie will climb against the greenback but maybe at the end of the month.




The Aussies starting to retest my support.  It looks like it will break through and my next target level would be .7590.  Also take a look at the XJO.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

XJO looks like its hitting resistance.  Will it break through?  The Aussie looks like it will fall which could mean that the XJO will follow.  The XJO looks like its hit resistance and appears to be breaking out but too many indicators are saying that it will fail.   

Anyway, signal to sell longs activated.


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## tech/a

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Interesting charts.

Advanced Get.

As expected the sell signals against the trend are only a 50/50 proposition as the buy signals with the trend are pretty good.

Why all the other oscillators?
Many do the same thing.
Like taking a Bus,Bike,Cab,Car,to the same destination---different tool same result--you get there.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Interesting charts.
> 
> Advanced Get.
> 
> As expected the sell signals against the trend are only a 50/50 proposition as the buy signals with the trend are pretty good.
> 
> Why all the other oscillators?
> Many do the same thing.
> Like taking a Bus,Bike,Cab,Car,to the same destination---different tool same result--you get there.




Hi Tech

Good question about the oscillators.  I only use about 2 and volume and the others make it look pretty.  Sell signals also activated by candlestick patterns and divergence.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Also forgot to mention that I use discretionary trading utilising intra day price action via candlesticks to give me entry and exit signals.  I'm a short term trader and enjoy trading noise.  I use long term view (weekly and monthly charts) to get general direction and use support and resistance as a guiding pattern for when I want to get out.  Basically, its all based on intraday movements.  If I'm not comfortagble with a certain movement than I get out.  Its meant that I cut my profits (and losses) sometimes but thats just how it goes.

When you say oscillators, what qualifies as an oscillator?  I didn't realise that I was using all oscillators.  I'm also using optiongear instead of Advance get.  I like the functionality and scanning capabilities of Advanced get but prefer the simplicity of optiongear.


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## tech/a

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

DTM.

All but volume are oscillators.
They record values of price movement either between high and low values or above or below zero.Their movement between extremes are osillations.

The only difference between each is the method of calculation.
Calculation is limited to using 5 components.Open/Close/High/Low/ and vloume.Each oscillator will use one or all of these in its calculation.There are 100s of combinations but ALL study the same thing--Past Price action.

I'm sure your successful in the way you trade otherwise you wouldnt trade that way!


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Update on the Aussie dollar.  Looks like resistance has been broken and could see the dollar fall on monday.  Next target around .7600 or there abouts.

The XJO also looks for a reversal either this week or next week.  The trigger would be the falling Aussie if I'm correct.  I think the fall could begin more this week than next but definitely it should happen by next week.  I'm a bit bear inclined at the moment but we'll find out in next couple of days.  Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts are lined up in terms of divergence.  We could see reversal on Tuesday.  Look for the candlestick signal on monday otherwise definitely by next week, 25 -28 Sept (Gann dates).   

Banks look overbought and could lead the way down.

Just my two bobs worth and not to be taken seriously.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Gold looking toppy and over bought.  Unleaded petrol also looking oversold and oil entering into over sold stage on the daily charts.


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## MARKETWAVES

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Moving  along  .....  here's  an  update....  4  hr  bars  ......

  Can we  eventually  break  through  all  this  overhead resistance ?

  Trade  at your  own  risk .....


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK, Fed raises rates and the Aussie hasn't dropped that much.  Looks like the raising of rates were already priced in.  The aussie has been consolidating on an earlier support line (not as strong as the thicker line of resistance) and is building up to move up.  My elliot wave count has 5.  The Aussie looks set to go up again.  Momentum has also turned back up.

Long term on the monthly charts, the movement is up.  Weekly is a bit choppy so look at the daily charts.  Its found support from an earlier support line although its not as strong a support as the thicker lines.  I've deleted the first target from previous chart because the Aussies in the process of turning around.  It doesn't look like a strong movement up but we'll see in the next few days.

The XJO seems to be powering on now and have hit 4500.  Look for a retracement.  The 10 year bonds appear oversold at the moment so look for it to bounce.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK, here is the correponding XJO.  A sell signal was given today after the US Fed upped the interest rates.  Look for the retracement tomorrow.  We'll see if its more than a three day retracement or longer in a few days.  My eod data hasn't finished downloading so the inverted hammer is more a bearish solid body.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

And also the elliot wave for the XJO.  The daily and weekly charts are lining up perfectly for a big correction.  Both are reaching the end of their wave 5 count.  Could come this month, could come next month, but its coming.  My reasoning for the end of a bull market would be higher interest rates if the Aussie drops too much.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

AUD starting to make an upwards run.  Currently sitting on .7723.


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Yep Agree DTM.

I might take some au now, on the hopes it'll break the 0.775 line.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				Rockon2 said:
			
		

> Yep Agree DTM.
> 
> I might take some au now, on the hopes it'll break the 0.775 line.




Might be best to work within the high and low of its range.  Its giving nice slow movements so maybe use those parameters.  I don't have live data but it gives nice and slow predictable moves during the day.  Its down at the bottom of its range right now.

10 year bonds have bounced today and XJO's struggling to get up but still staying above its support.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

The Aussies down from the overnight trading and is somewhere near .7620 and is resting on one of my support lines.  Its not too far off from my initial first projection.  My charts won't show the overnight sessions range and will only show the Australian trading session.  I will post it up once it comes online.


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## Rockon2

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

I didnt take the trade!!! Phew!  
see it now whooska .... Down.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				Rockon2 said:
			
		

> I didnt take the trade!!! Phew!
> see it now whooska .... Down.




Yes, once it dropped from its high it broke below my main support.  Its resting on a long term support line so its in a strong position.  I have other support lines there too but won't add it in because theres too many lines as it is.  The daily charts show that it could bounce back up again, weekly shows its still in a bit of a down cycle (not a strong one) while the monthly shows that its still in its up cycle.  Support at about .7620 and go long from there if there is a bounce.  A good stop loss should be used on this one because of the size of drop in todays trading.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Ok.  Overnight session has seen the Aussie drop to .7580 and is resting on my initial target of the red support line.  Will this hold?  We'll see in the morning.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK.  Looking at the Aussie USD relationship, we can see that the strength of the USD is an inverse relationship to the Dow Jones.  Looking at the Dow, its set to go up after bouncing of long term support.  I've drawn in the Aussie dollar movements and we can see that it follows the Dow very closely.  In my opinion, the Dow has just completed an elliot wave 5 down and is turning to go back up again.

Looking at the Dow long term, I am very bearish but bullish short term.  The US dollar is looking bullish long term, although theres still room for a short term move down.  Same as the Aussie, it looks toppy even though short term wise, it looks to go up (although it doesn't look like a strong move up).  The only thing I can deduce is that theres still room for the Aussie market to move up.  Since it looks like the Aussie looks to go up, I don't think interest rates won't go up.  The XJO has been resting on support last week and todays jump has pushed it into a resistance line and if it doesn't break it, then there could be a correction.  Tomorrow will give a signal if theres a correction.

PS.  I tried to post this earlier but website was down.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

The Aussie has been holding on support of around .7570 (as drawn by my red line from an earlier chart, suggesting that the selloff is finding support).  

Oil was up again last night with the uncertainty about the damage from hurricane Rita but looks to be a weak move up.  The XJO has built up a bit of steam from yesterdays momentum so longs should be held unless a clear signal is given today that a reversal will occur (seems to happen a lot on Tuesdays).  It has hit a previous support turned to resistance line and seems to be also touching a long term resistance line thats not included in the chart.

Also look at the XJO and how it conforms to the fib ratio drawn in which shows that a top in the market could be at 4680.  It could also mean that if oil drops, the USD will rise, and a rising US dollar is bad for the US  and Australian markets.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK.  Aussie dollar up against the USD on the support/first target I had drawn in last week.  Its showing a positive reversal, but I don't thinks its going to be a strong bounce.  

Oil, gold, copper looks over bought, so could be heading for a fall in next few days, tomorrow even.  

10 year bonds have taken a hiding too before next weeks Reserve bank meeting.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

And the corresponding jump on the XJO after the dollar went up today.  Notice how its at its peak Fibonacci levels and showing that its at a major resistance level.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK.  Today the Aussie's bounce is stalling and starting to lose momentum.  It should start falling again.

The XJO is showing a bad....., bad....., sign.  Its fallen back on support but its a very bearish move.

Will elaborate more tomorrow when I have time but its looking all black.  I said today that equities have had their run and its looking that way.  

Time to move on to a new asset class or be selective in what you choose.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> OK.  Today the Aussie's bounce is stalling and starting to lose momentum.  It should start falling again.
> 
> The XJO is showing a bad....., bad....., sign.  Its fallen back on support but its a very bearish move.
> 
> Will elaborate more tomorrow when I have time but its looking all black.  I said today that equities have had their run and its looking that way.
> 
> Time to move on to a new asset class or be selective in what you choose.




Whilst the XJO and Aussie dollar is showing some weakness, the banking sector is still looking strong.  Having looked at it properly, I can see that it is still in an elliot wave 3.  The banking sector XXJ doesn't show any correlation with the Aussie dollar.  If the reversal signal is correct, ie a correction will start, it will drop to significant support before bouncing and rising to new heights.  Next week will tell the market which it will head so no direction is assumed until the markets shows us the direction.  

This week will make for an interesting week.

Fearful prediction (in case I look like an @ss), Aussie dollar to retest support of around .7540 before heading up.  Will post chart of support and resistance when I get a chance.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

The Aussies not getting through resistance from the up and down projected resistance lines.  Tomorrow will test if resistance is broken or kept intact.

I've redrawn my long term support and this a strong position.  Once it starts breaking through this (could take a long time) than the Aussie could find itself in a bad place.  The US dollar is looking like its bottomed out.  

Fundamentally,  the US has a high deficit, but in comparison to ours, its about the same percentage wise.  I personally think that the value of the dollar has more to do than the deficit than higher interest rates.  The strength of the USD has no correlation with either higher interest rates or a strong economy.  

If the Aussie drops, we could expect overseas funds to start withdrawing their USD investments.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

*OUCH!!!!*


*KUURASH!!!*

Lots of volatility to come.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

The Aussies swimming in red.  The Reserve Bank's failure to lift interest rates has left the Aussie dollar drowning so to speak which in turn has overseas money leaving our shores in my opinion.  If the Aussie breaks through long term support (thick red line) then it will change the weekly and monthly dynamics.  ie breaking of the pattern.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

And the flight from equities (XJO) once our dollar looks like its going down.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK, Aussie dollar is on major long term support but momentum has built up and it looks like its going to smash through.  The size of the drop shows that people are leaving their Aussie dollar positions and Aussie markets.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

The XJO looks really bad, although its resting on support or there abouts.


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## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

OK, the Aussies trying to stay up above my long term support ie the thick red line.  So far, momentum is down on the daily charts but support is holding.  Look for a bounce in the XJO and XXJ if support holds.  

I also have my elliot wave count on the monthly charts for those interested.  The Aussie is on its way down.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Whilst the XJO and Aussie dollar is showing some weakness, the banking sector is still looking strong.  Having looked at it properly, I can see that it is still in an elliot wave 3.  The banking sector XXJ doesn't show any correlation with the Aussie dollar.  If the reversal signal is correct, ie a correction will start, it will drop to significant support before bouncing and rising to new heights.  Next week will tell the market which it will head so no direction is assumed until the markets shows us the direction.
> 
> This week will make for an interesting week.
> 
> Fearful prediction (in case I look like an @ss), Aussie dollar to retest support of around .7540 before heading up.  Will post chart of support and resistance when I get a chance.




Earlier I posted this and it was on the cusp of the elliot wave 4.  It should hold true that this sector will bounce stronger than the others once it finds the bottom.  Might not be the bottom yet but follow the Aussie dollar for direction.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Gold is heading into way over bought area.  

Implications on the USD???  Not good for equities.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

Short term trading:

Aussie dollars holding and momentum is changing to go up short term.  Look for a bounce.  XJO intraday looks like its bottomed out and looks like time to go long but am wary of the dead cats bounce.  

Personally, I would wait to confirm that a fake bounce occurs because it then gives you an oversold signal, giving your trade a higher chance of success.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Gold is heading into way over bought area.
> 
> Implications on the USD???  Not good for equities.




Nice chart DTM, it could also be interpreted as showing higher highs and higher lows in a strong uptrend, prices are congesting prior to a strong move. Just another view.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Nice chart DTM, it could also be interpreted as showing higher highs and higher lows in a strong uptrend, prices are congesting prior to a strong move. Just another view.




Hi Rich,

it may be that you're right because I haven't had a chance to really look at it.  I only glanced at it and will look at it properly over the weekend when I get the chance.  Been very busy lately.

XJO bounced today as I thought it would.  Aussie dollar sold off below major support line and its find support at where it is now.  It looks like its been oversold but will be able to tell more in the next few days.  I expect the Aussie to really fight to stay above major support.  Its teetering on the brink and if it falls off it, it will fall by a lot.    

Will post charts later.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

The Aussies showing signs of being oversold.  Support holding and candlesticks are looking for a bounce.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Hi Rich,
> 
> it may be that you're right because I haven't had a chance to really look at it.  I only glanced at it and will look at it properly over the weekend when I get the chance.  Been very busy lately.




Hi DTM, 
No drama, just theory, hard to predict things accurately imo, just a matter of probabilities.

Gold: Just a view again, could break either way but trend is up so that's what I guessed based on the general trend and short term bullish pattern. So if I had to bet I'd bet up. Not unusual in my short experience to see a false break down and then a strong rally to higher highs for this type of pattern.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Hi DTM,
> No drama, just theory, hard to predict things accurately imo, just a matter of probabilities.
> 
> Gold: Just a view again, could break either way but trend is up so that's what I guessed based on the general trend and short term bullish pattern. So if I had to bet I'd bet up. Not unusual in my short experience to see a false break down and then a strong rally to higher highs for this type of pattern.




Rich, I haven't done the full analysis yet.  Short term, ie daily and weekly charts, direction is down.  Gold is on a support line right now but is on its way down.  If this support holds, it won't be for too long.  My next expected target is $455.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*

'Fell of the edge'- sure did DTM! Sometimes these triangle things have false breaks and then recover in the line of the general trend but looking more like a retracement is likely to about where you mention.


----------



## DTM

Aussie dollar on the weekly and monthly charts are in a downwards direction re: red arrow pointing downwards.   On the daily, it looks like its getting ready to bounce but a very bearish candlestick was formed in the last session.  Support lines are still holding but it bounced lost momentum strongly off resistance when it did try to bounce.  Next few days will give a better direction as to where it will head short term ie Daily charts.


----------



## DTM

Gold has bounced.  A little bit lower than where I had my first support line but it doesn't look like a strong bounce.  Am expecting a target of $470 before it continues down to my first target of $455.  Look for the relationship between gold and the USD ie effect on the Aussie.


----------



## DTM

My interpretation of Gold in Elliot wave theory.  Marketwaves may correct me but so far this is what I think it looks like.

Gold in the weekly chart is entering Wave 4 and in the daily charts, its nearly there.  If I am correct, we may still see a bounce in the Aussie and our markets.


----------



## wavepicker

In my opinion if gold has not topped then it has just one last leg up to approximately 480. We had a contracting triangle preceding this upward wave 5 move. Contracting triangles always precede the last move in a sequence. Gold should correct dramatically after that. Maybe later on in 1 year it may bottom resume it's uptrend, too early to tell.

I think the AUDUSD will rally along with all the other foreign currencies in the  next 4-6 weeks, but it's rally will be anaemic in comparison to the other currencies. Personally my target for Aussie is 64/65c within 12 months and for the EURUSD 1.01/1.02 over the same period.

Good luck to all.


----------



## DTM

wavepicker said:
			
		

> In my opinion if gold has not topped then it has just one last leg up to approximately 480. We had a contracting triangle preceding this upward wave 5 move. Contracting triangles always precede the last move in a sequence. Gold should correct dramatically after that. Maybe later on in 1 year it may bottom resume it's uptrend, too early to tell.
> 
> I think the AUDUSD will rally along with all the other foreign currencies in the  next 4-6 weeks, but it's rally will be anaemic in comparison to the other currencies. Personally my target for Aussie is 64/65c within 12 months and for the EURUSD 1.01/1.02 over the same period.
> 
> Good luck to all.




I agree with you Wavepicker.  I'm very bearish in outlook on the Aussie and gold.


----------



## DTM

I haven't looked at things for a while but it looks like the Aussies heading into oversold area.  Its looking for support but will support hold?? I doubt it but next few days will tell.

XJO looks like its going to retest the resistance turned support.


----------



## DTM

Gold looks like its been over sold too.  It had hit the previous support/resistance and has bounced back but looks to go back up.  Oil looks oversold on daily charts too so look for a bounce.


----------



## DTM

DTM said:
			
		

> Gold looks like its been over sold too.  It had hit the previous support/resistance and has bounced back but looks to go back up.  Oil looks oversold on daily charts too so look for a bounce.




And its bounced before it carries on its way down.  Its hit my initial target of $455 (it took a bit longer than anticipated) and now looking for support.  Outlook for the Aussie dollars not so good.  Oil has found support around the $60 mark and is building a base.


----------



## DTM

DTM said:
			
		

> I haven't looked at things for a while but it looks like the Aussies heading into oversold area.  Its looking for support but will support hold?? I doubt it but next few days will tell.
> 
> XJO looks like its going to retest the resistance turned support.




And whooshka goes the Aussie dollar.  Its looking for support now.  Once the Aussie dollar establishes a falling trend line, all the banks who borrowed overseas funds to finance the housing boom will be in trouble.  The Aussie still has a little bit of life left yet IMO but long term, we are looking at a strong USD and a weak Aussie.

XJO retested support and bounced 60 odd points in one day.

Look at the relationship of the Aussie dollar to the XJO.  Doesn't look good short term.


----------



## DTM

*Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR  ...  here we go  again ?*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Whilst the XJO and Aussie dollar is showing some weakness, the banking sector is still looking strong.  Having looked at it properly, I can see that it is still in an elliot wave 3.  The banking sector XXJ doesn't show any correlation with the Aussie dollar.  If the reversal signal is correct, ie a correction will start, it will drop to significant support before bouncing and rising to new heights.  Next week will tell the market which it will head so no direction is assumed until the markets shows us the direction.
> 
> This week will make for an interesting week.




CBA's now leading the charge.  It has bounced  back very strongly to higher levels than its previous high and has always been one of my leading indicators.  Seems like we are on an Elliot wave 5 now with the banking sector.


----------



## DTM

DTM said:
			
		

> And its bounced before it carries on its way down.  Its hit my initial target of $455 (it took a bit longer than anticipated) and now looking for support.  Outlook for the Aussie dollars not so good.  Oil has found support around the $60 mark and is building a base.




Gold has bounced off my initial target of $455 to $470 but is now hitting resistance.  Look for gold to start turning around again, but wait for the candlesticks to give you the out look.


----------



## Bit of Byte

Great Thread Dude!

How do I demo OPtiongear sw?

I have visited their homepage - not very clear asto how I get a trial sw...


----------



## DTM

Bit of Byte said:
			
		

> Great Thread Dude!
> 
> How do I demo OPtiongear sw?
> 
> I have visited their homepage - not very clear asto how I get a trial sw...




Hi Bit of Byte,

not sure if they do demos but if you email I'm sure they'd reply.

Daniel


----------



## DTM

DTM said:
			
		

> Gold looks like its been over sold too.  It had hit the previous support/resistance and has bounced back but looks to go back up.  Oil looks oversold on daily charts too so look for a bounce.




I had posted this on 2nd November with a chart showing gold descending into an elliot wave 4 on the daily charts.  It now has bounced back strongly to $487 to complete the elliot wave 5.  I'm waiting for Gold to look overbought around hit a peak of around $492 before beginning its Wave 4 descent on the weekly charts.

This should not be taken seriously as I'm only new to elliot wave and have not been able to dedicate the time to studying it properly.  I haven't also been able to dedicate time to looking at the markets because I've been busy building up a business.



 

PS  I did find out something extremely useful about elliot waves but will have to test it out much later.  Its only in the theory stage.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

Remember, to have an idea where you want to get out when you enter a trade.... 
by the way stay close to DTM.... he seems to have mastered the ability to see short term moves through the use of western oscillators...

Personally I don't care for them and think that they are all lagging indicators and were created long after Eastern Technicals... meaning Asia.... 

Technical Analysis was around in the East long before the West .....
 Oscillators  are western ........(ex- stochastics MACD, Bolinger Bands , etc ) 
Sorry, don't have time to elaborate ......


HERE IS WHAT I SEE .....  

NO OSCILATORS NEEDED... ( IN MOST CASES ) ...... 



The AUD/USD has become  oversold  many days  now .....
It now appears to have made a Triple Bottom Formation..

TAKE A LOOK ....Maybe you agree ...?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


----------



## MARKETWAVES

pg-2.............


----------



## DTM

And for my elliot count, which is not as glamorous or knowledgeable as Market's.

I'm not experienced in elliot wave and this is only my opinion.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

3   charts  

  for  Thanksgiving  USA  ...........
---------------------------------------------------

  MASSIVE  RISING  CHANNEL  FORMATION ,

   Is this  finding  support  ?   You  be the  Judge ......

  Sure looks  inviting .....

---------------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


----------



## RichKid

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> Is this  finding  support  ?   You  be the  Judge ......
> 
> Sure looks  inviting .....




Looks like the uptrend is continuing in force, your view has been consistent since you first started following this. I'm keeping an eye on the USD index to see if it'll break below that earlier high again.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

This  is  a  continuation  from  the  post  above

Here's  an  update  to  the  charts poted  here  earlier  last  week

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

The  trend  is  not your  friend ...........
  ( only  if  you  are  a  trend  trader )

Support is  your  friend ........ Again no  oscillators  needed ....


----------



## MARKETWAVES

The  results  are  in ..........  
(an update  to the recent charts  posted here from 2 weeks ago .....)

  BEFORE  AND  AFTER  ................


----------



## Milk Man

Where do you reckon it'll go to waves? Stratosphere?


----------



## MARKETWAVES

Milkman.............

 Think  that  this  will  move  in accordance to  Elliott wave  theory ...  Looks  like  we  are  at  the  beginiing  of  a  5th  wave ....

------------------------------------------------------------------

Contracting  triangles  ......
have  objectives  just  like  any  other  chart  formation ....

I have  some  links  to explain  this  but  cannot  post  them  because  the guys  that  manage this  site dont  like  posts  that  go  to  other websites  it  seems...  They probably kick me  off the this  site if off  the site  if  I
post  this  . So  I  try  to  explain best I can .....


----------



## Joe Blow

MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> I have  some  links  to explain  this  but  cannot  post  them  because  the guys  that  manage this  site dont  like  posts  that  go  to  other websites  it  seems...




MW,

Feel free to post your lnks. Genuine links to valuable/useful information or resources are encouraged on ASF. The only instance where I may have a problem with posted links is where someone is spamming their site.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

TIME  TO  TAKE  A  LOOK  AT  THE  AUSSIE  DOLLAR  AGAIN

--------------------------------------------------------

What's Going On ?....


  What  is  this  ?


  A  Massive  Falg-Pole?..............    A  Dagger ?

  What  ever  it  looks  like  ....  

The  Aussie  Dollar  appears  to  be  sloping  downward ....

 Here  we  Go  .............  again !

 MAJOR  RESISTANCE  APPEARS  TO  BE  AT 7600

-------------------------------------------------------------

IS  A  PULLBACK  IN  ORDER  HERE  ?  

  HERE'S  THE 2  *CHARTS* ........ YOU  BE  THE  JUDGE !

---------------------------------------------------------------------
*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK…* The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


----------



## scsl

The Aussie is flyyyyying atm! Up more than half a dollar to 0.7691.

It's been a while since the last post in this thread... Hope Marketwaves, DTM and others can get back into it.


----------



## bvbfan

I've started playing FX, just sticking to what I know and done well on AUD
Caught the leg down to 74c and leg back up to 76.9c although left a lot on the table at least i'm getting most entries right, exits I need to work on.

It should go onto to test 78c but I wouldn't rule out a crack at 80c just yet


----------



## michael_selway

scsl said:
			
		

> The Aussie is flyyyyying atm! Up more than half a dollar to 0.7691.
> 
> It's been a while since the last post in this thread... Hope Marketwaves, DTM and others can get back into it.




Is it because the USD is falling?

thx

MS


----------



## TraderPro

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Is it because the USD is falling?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




No, Its largely because of the prospect of an Australian interest rate rise... hence raising the interest rate differential between the US rates and Aussie rates...

On Friday US GDP wasn't conducive of a US interest rate rise - hence Aussie shooting up...


----------



## Kauri

Has been good to me so far....


----------



## vert

is anyone watching the overseas markets? the eur/usd has broken the may/june highs, hit 1.3108 currently 1.309. usd index is 83.53, gold 637.00. should be good week for gold stocks next week.


----------



## Kauri

AUDUSD..  I think the 4Hr chart supports the Aussie daily, seems to be in a minor W3 of some degree..


----------



## scsl

A few hours ago, the Aussie closed at US$0.7912 - the highest year-end close for a decade. Looks like it will probably approach and test 0.80 in January...


----------



## bvbfan

As bearish as I am on the USD I don't expect the AUD to break 80 without a few more tests, AUD actually selling off tonight
ooh look at it go



Obviously I'm short from av 79 even although was getting worried when it got to 79.20


----------



## Naif

AUDUSD is now 0.7938 and if it could hold above 0.7929 levels , then it might go up to test  0.8000 levels... everything seems to me that audusd is going to break 0.8000 but what i learnt from the previous years that USD always show strengths in the start of the year..

for me nothin is certain and i prefer to stand aside for now ...


----------



## Nick Radge

Here is an article I wrote for AIR back in late November.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061130/27/zvjx.html


----------



## scsl

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Here is an article I wrote for AIR back in late November.
> 
> http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061130/27/zvjx.html



Thank you for posting the link Nick. As the chart you refer to wasn't showing, would you be able to post it here? Also, I understand that $0.92 could be several years off, but have you put an approximate timeframe on it? And where do you think this current run from (support at about mid) $0.78 is going in the next month?


----------



## machi

Interesting, Currency expert Peter Bain says this is the last move up before we see a reversal

" It appears that the Aussie (AUD/USD pair) is trying to top out on
the daily chart, what with the Big Dogs extremely short vis-Ã -vis
COT (a.k.a. Commitments of Traders)"

Let's see what happens


----------



## RichKid

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Here is an article I wrote for AIR back in late November.
> 
> http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061130/27/zvjx.html




Thanks Nick, 

That's a nice, clear article, would you be able to post the chart referred to in that article? It's not available at the location.


----------



## Naif

i think that sellin` audusd from 0.7997 with sl 25 pips and limit 0.7905 would be safe..
i guess it worths ...

what about you traders?


----------



## TraderPro

OMG!    The Aussie is up to 0.7950's... 

Does anyone know the catalyst for this move? There hasn't really been any major economic announcements...

Is this purely technical now? (since no data) or is there some fundamentals in play here?


----------



## Kauri

Naif said:
			
		

> i think that sellin` audusd from 0.7997 with sl 25 pips and limit 0.7905 would be safe..
> i guess it worths ...
> 
> what about you traders?




    Naif
          I'm looking to .815 on a daily time frame in the shorter term, attached is my chart (weekly) of the way I see it at the moment. (The triangle has formed over 6 months, the one Nick Radge is talking about is a longer term one of 2+ years.)
          I'm still relatively new to E/W so don't attach too much weight to my wave count    .


----------



## Naif

Kauri said:
			
		

> Naif
> I'm looking to .815 on a daily time frame in the shorter term, attached is my chart (weekly) of the way I see it at the moment. (The triangle has formed over 6 months, the one Nick Radge is talking about is a longer term one of 2+ years.)
> I'm still relatively new to E/W so don't attach too much weight to my wave count    .





Kauri,
I believe that USD will fall against most of the currencies because they will decrease the interest rates (nothing sure yet) but that is what said in the market.. I do agree with you that aud will rise against usd and record new highs but what i do think that audusd its time now to correct about 100 to 150 pips, i attached the daily and weekly charts with my own opinions.


----------



## Naif

the charts  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>


----------



## Nick Radge

There first chart is from the article. The second is the latest chart from The Chartist from 27/11/06.


----------



## Kauri

Naif said:
			
		

> Kauri,
> I believe that USD will fall against most of the currencies because they will decrease the intrest rates (nothing sure yet) but that is what said in the market.. I do agree with you that aud will rise against usd and record new highs but what i do think that audusd its time now to correct about 100 to 150 pips, i attached the daily and weekly charts with my own opinions.




Naif,
I agree, a fall of 100 to around the.7878 level wont be entirely unexpected. Data out of the U.S tonight may tip it over.


----------



## Naif

as it was expected the audusd fell around 140pips to 0.7833 after the ISM data and it was expected from the market but it didnt rise to 0.7995 levels and missed it   , anyway there was a strong divergence and it also appeared in the 1h chart that the bulls weren't  buyin'.

from the chart i attach.. i think its a good area to buy now with stop at 7825 and the target is 7890.


----------



## Naif

Naif said:
			
		

> as it was expected the audusd fell around 140pips to 0.7833 after the ISM data and it was expected from the market but it didnt rise to 0.7995 levels and missed it   , anyway there was a strong divergenceit and also appeared in the 1h chart that the bulls weren`t  buyin`.
> 
> from the chart i attch.. i think its a good area to buy now with stop at 7825 and the target is 7890




changed the sl to 7820 cuz i went long from 7840 and 7825 is so close


----------



## Naif

Naif said:
			
		

> as it was expected the audusd fell around 140pips to 0.7833 after the ISM data and it was expected from the market but it didnt rise to 0.7995 levels and missed it   , anyway there was a strong divergence and it also appeared in the 1h chart that the bulls weren't  buyin'.
> 
> from the chart i attach.. i think its a good area to buy now with stop at 7825 and the target is 7890.




lost my 1st 20pips in Jan.. 

audusd had broken the trendline in the 4hr chart.. right now a good supports at 7815 , and if it break it down then the anouther support is 7763 ..

i prefer to stay out and watch today whats gonna happen..


----------



## Pager

Down about 2 cents last few days.

Maybe getting close to a bottom, if it can hold above 77.5 then a push above 80 cents in the next few weeks ?, if not back down to 74-75 IMO.


----------



## machi

Pager said:
			
		

> Down about 2 cents last few days.
> 
> Maybe getting close to a bottom, if it can hold above 77.5 then a push above 80 cents in the next few weeks ?, if not back down to 74-75 IMO.




Bottom???

IMO this down move is in it's infancy. It will be much lower by years end


----------



## wavepicker

machi said:
			
		

> Bottom???
> 
> IMO this down move is in it's infancy. It will be much lower by years end





I agree machi!!

I think AUDUSD will retest 0.70 and lower before making any attempt to 0.94. 0.94. The 0.94 level I think is possible in the long term hower.

I think it's good to look at the long term charts other pairs such USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD. Forecasting the esisest of these will make it easier to see were AUDUSD is headed. Bottom line however. The USD is going up this year, therefore anything trading against it will suffer. That includes the bulk of the resources

Cheers


----------



## Naif

the audusd failed to close below 7759 which it lies on the 38.2 fibo in the daily chart from 7405 to 7977 and 61.8 in 4h chart from 7613 to the top 7977, and there is a strong support in the RSI 14 days, the indicators is telling me that the corrections has been done and we have now the resistance 7843 which it lies on the 38.2 line fibo in the 4h chart & 23.6 in the daily chart and if it closed above 7840 levels that mean its closed above
the line of moving average 200 in the hourly chart, 100 4h chart and 200 4h chart and then i can say that the short and mid term trend is up and that we gonna see new highs.


----------



## Naif

the chart >>>>>>>>>


----------



## Kauri

Hi Naif
   I'm pretty much with you but am wary of a pullback to form a Wc.. so long as it respects .7720 if it does..


----------



## Naif

Hi kauri.
 i am not expertised enough to use elliot waves, and right now the audusd is 7842 .. did the wave B already end? or it might end at 7890?  what i see in the charts that audusd is going to 7890 - 7910 .


----------



## Kauri

Naif said:
			
		

> Hi kauri.
> i am not expertised enough to use elliot waves, and right now the audusd is 7842 .. did the wave B already end? or it might end at 7890? what i see in the charts that audusd is going to 7890 - 7910 .




  Hi Naif
             I'm only starting out on E/W so treat my posts accordingly.   
  If a wave b is forming anything under 7970 odd will do, although 7870 would be a tidy 50% ret of the last swing.


----------



## rederob

I expect Asia to move more into euro curency and divest or otherwise downsize their USD holdings over coming years.
I expect the US will need to print more money than they ever expected, to fund their war effort and twin debt legacies.
I expect Australia to continue to ride a now volatile commodity bull that will nevertheless maintain our currency at a cyclical high level.
I see *yen * as the "spoiler".
With probable Oz rate hikes this year, I see our dollar closing the year significantly higher than it began.


----------



## Kauri

Hi Naif
         A bit early yet but on my charts it looks like it may be setting up for that push up you expected.


----------



## Naif

hi kauri..

i think we need a daily close above 7845 to see 7890 - 7920 
 you can see what i see in my charts (4h chart)  it closed above 100 & 200 4h moving average, closed above 38.2 fibo and the RSI 14 broke up a good resistance.. 
it might correct to 7825 levels but i do still expect a north move in the coming days and it might record new highs in Feb 2007


----------



## Kauri

Hi naif,
           I entered last night on my preferred count(black label  :alcohol:  ), but have a veeeery tight stop as a C trade that may turn into a Wiii   . Longer term I see much higher too, low 80's... for now anyway..
      Cheers  Kauri


----------



## Naif

Hi kauri..

the audusd hitted my target 7890 

right now i will watch the weekly close. if it close above 7845 then i will buy bottoms to see the audusd around 7977 

good luck


----------



## Kauri

And I have closed out the long trade, looks like the ABC is coming in.. made enough for a coffee and muffin next time I go out


----------



## siempre33

I am not a chart egg-spurt, but fundamentally the AUD is one of the currencies that should perform well, being that Australia is rich in natural resources....of course, in the short-term many other factors play into the relative strength, such as central bank fiscal policy....

I'm new here, and trying to qualify with enough posts to enter to stock contest....I call California home....keep up the good charting, I WILL pay attention....


----------



## Naif

back again... I still see that nothin is sure but what happened is that the audusd formed the head and shoulders pattern in the daily chart and now most of traders expect that audusd is going to 7570 and they made this expectation because of the head and shoulders. right now the pair is facing a good support at 7713 level, the breaking of this support might take it to 7645 - 7636 where its going to face the up trend line in the daily chart, and breaking it would take the pair to 7610 and 7570 , i`m a lil confused because everything is really not clear because we will have the up trendline in the weekly chart .


----------



## Kauri

Possibly start of new impulse...  at a very risky stage ..


----------



## Naif

welcome back kauri  

i do agree with you that audusd might start a new impulse.
well in the last days i have posted my analysis and mentioned that everything is just not clear, fundementally i belive that usd is going to have some weakness , but technically audusd fell and there was the form of head & shoulders and after break it it should go to 7570 but we have the weekly up trendline , really everythin was just mixed.  now what i see that we need a weekly close above 7766 so we can say that audusd is going next week to 7855.  the data of GDP Annualized q/q for usa came out and it was better than expected and then there was a talk in the market that that they may mention that rate might be rised , and thats why the dollar showed some strength but the dollar fell after they decided that the rate will be the same and didnt talk about any possibilities that they might rise to 5.50% . and as i posted in the eurusd thread that i expect that the change in the nonfarm payrolls (Jan) will be less than expected which is going to make the dollar become weaker, because when the number of nonfarm payroll is less that means there is no worries of inflation and if there is no inflation rise, then there no intrest rate rise.
hope that you got me ppl cuz i`m talkin with broken english ... well right now i`m havin a course in australia so i hope that it will be improved.


lets wait


----------



## Kauri

Hi Naif,
           Yes it's pretty hard to pick a direction at the moment. I'm sitting on the sidelines. All it will take is for Bernanke to cough at the wrong place in one of his speeches and we'll be off again.


----------



## Naif

hi again kauri..
there is anouther thing, i`m still tryin to explain something.  when the ism manfacturing (jan) data came out and it were less than expected, the eurusd in the 1st two min rised to 3056 then it fell 3017 , and the ism data is very important , cuz what the market is watchin out right now is the change in nonfarm payrolls (jan) to make their expectations for the intrest rate hike, I had an explation which its not correct, its that i think that the dogs ( commercial traders ) already knew the result of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its better than expected, and they wanted to close their positions.

but when i look to the cot charts , it shows to me that the commercial want the eurusd around 1.3180 , so the result of the chagne of nonfarm payrolls is going to be less than expected.

if the explanation is right then i dont think that the audusd is going to break 7766 , and if the change of nonfarm payrolls less than expected then the aud will close above 7766.

its a little complicated but this is forex

i hope you can help me out to find a good explanation for whats gonna happen tomorrow.


----------



## Naif

Naif said:
			
		

> hi again kauri..
> there is anouther thing, i`m still tryin to explain something.  when the ism manfacturing (jan) data came out and it were less than expected, the eurusd in the 1st two min rised to 3056 then it fell 3017 , and the ism data is very important , cuz what the market is watchin out right now is the change in nonfarm payrolls (jan) to make their expectations for the intrest rate hike, I had an explation which its not correct, its that i think that the dogs ( commercial traders ) already knew the result of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its better than expected, and they wanted to close their positions.
> 
> but *when i look to the cot charts , it shows to me that the commercial want the eurusd around 1.3180 , so the result of the chagne of nonfarm payrolls is going to be less than expected*.
> 
> if the explanation is right then i dont think that the audusd is going to break 7766 , and if the change of nonfarm payrolls less than expected then the aud will close above 7766.
> 
> its a little complicated but this is forex
> 
> i hope you can help me out to find a good explanation for whats gonna happen tomorrow.




it was less than expected and even the unemployment rate was worse than expected, and the audusd rise to 7754, but now its 7737 ..
i prefer to watch the close of the week cuz everything is still not clear.


----------



## Kauri

Naif said:
			
		

> it was less than expected and even the unemployment rate was worse than expected, and the audusd rise to 7754, but now its 7737 ..
> i prefer to watch the close of the week cuz everything is still not clear.




   Hi Naif,
             Yep, I can't see much direction in the $US pairs at the moment either, next week maybe.  Have a good weekend...  
              Kauri


----------



## Naif

hello everyone...

see the chart ...
dont forget that we got important data from the us...

good luck


----------



## Naif

we need a close above 7768 to see audusd move higher..


----------



## Naif

the chart.................


----------



## Naif

now its 1:30am australia local time, this hour audusd should close above 7768 so the new 4h bar will open above this resistance and it will become a suuport, also it will break up the new traingle in the 4h chart.
three hours bernanke will speak, so we should beaware. 

the chart....


----------



## Naif

after breaking the The Ascending Triangle , the audusd formed a new ascending channel..

the chart


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:
			
		

> post on 01/02...Possibly start of new impulse... at a very risky stage ..




   Running with a tight stop, not much vol behind it


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:
			
		

> Running with a tight stop, not much vol behind it




   A tight stop, but not that tight...   *A stop raid???*    left chart is daily, right hand chart is 1 minute


----------



## bvbfan

Job number were out at that time, I thought the numbers would be bad, and were but the unemployment rate dropping seems to have had more effect than the job numbers.


----------



## Naif

after the data of unmployment rate, the inflation will rise, so they will hike the intrest rates..we`ll see soon 7850


----------



## Naif

i just went long with sl @ 7745 and target 1st target 7810 2nd target 7850


----------



## Naif

audusd couldn`t close below the the up trendline, and 38 fibo in the daily chart.. if audusd want to go north it shouldn`t break down the up trend line, the 30min & 1hr chart show me the behaavior of the market and it seems that they want to push up audusd to 7810 but nothing sure if this pair will break 7850 or not.. we see

i might not be with u next week..

good luck and have nice weekends

bye

NS


----------



## Naif

today open was below the up trend line.. it seems that audusd is going to test 0.7685


----------



## Kauri

Hi Naif.
             Yes, I just got taken out of my trade....  will see what develops..


----------



## be_8_el

Any idea if aud will drop to below .74?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys dollar is going great!

Having a great time with three positions in at the moment.

I am seeing a stong very predictable trend right now but I am thinking a return to the main line, may come soon side ways.

What are your thoughts on the current situation? I hear a price objective of .90 forecast but I am just taking it one day at a time.

A rise in rates in May will help the cause.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Last night dollar hit a small bump dropped very quick but then stabilized, But silly me panicked and dropped all my positions!

Well at least I saw the bottom and got back in!  so it is not all lost!


----------



## Kauri

Although it seems rather shallow for even a W4, it may be in. Watching to see if  a minor W1..W2 develops. Not trading in FX at the moment, just watching as I try to nut out a confirming signal that I am comfortable with to replace  vol. ... :dunno:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Although it seems rather shallow for even a W4, it may be in. Watching to see if  a minor W1..W2 develops. Not trading in FX at the moment, just watching as I try to nut out a confirming signal that I am comfortable with to replace  vol. ... :dunno:




Great to see another ASF member looking at the AUD$$

I am also watching Kauri.

I see a bearish channel looking for a return to main trend line or break of the channel before I start committing any positions.

Tonight it's putting on a stronger show.


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Great to see another ASF member looking at the AUD$$
> 
> I am also watching Kauri.
> 
> I see a bearish channel looking for a return to main trend line or break of the channel before I start committing any positions.
> 
> Tonight it's putting on a stronger show.



  Hi Trade_it
                Looks like a good place to set up for a W2... would have been nice to see the W*b* taken out first though. The upcoming RBA ann will move it one or tother I guess.
         Cheers
                  Kauri..


----------



## Kauri

Can't complain, it's been a good run so far... wonder if she will take a spell around the recent high???


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Can't complain, it's been a good run so far... wonder if she will take a spell around the recent high???




Kauri,

I hate to say I missed the boat on the aussie!

but not to despair, yesterday afternoon I opened contracts on:

EURO/USD LONG Support found, returned to main trend line.

GBP/USD LONG break off minor resistance return to main trend line.

USD/CHF SHORT bounce off trend line, just about broke minor rally.

that is what a sore yesterday all in profit now. Mind you they are all made, do to a weak US dollar. but the entry's would not come if the US was not weak and looking for more downside.

So I will follow you on to further highs!

Not sure if i will open a aussie on the dip I may just keep adding to what I have.

see charts


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Kauri,
> 
> I hate to say I missed the boat on the aussie!
> 
> but not to despair, yesterday afternoon I opened contracts on:
> 
> EURO/USD LONG Support found, returned to main trend line.
> 
> GBP/USD LONG break off minor resistance return to main trend line.
> 
> USD/CHF SHORT bounce off trend line, just about broke minor rally.
> 
> that is what a sore yesterday all in profit now. Mind you they are all made, do to a weak US dollar. but the entry's would not come if the US was not weak and looking for more downside.
> 
> So I will follow you on to further highs!
> 
> Not sure if i will open a aussie on the dip I may just keep adding to what I have.
> 
> see charts




 Trade it'
            Nice work, looks like it's all trending well.
            I've only got the one pair on at the moment, nice little runner on the Aussie 4Hourly.... can't workout the waves after the entry so letting it run with a MA as a stop... it just won't stop for a W4..   ..


----------



## Kauri

She pulled up for a shallow W4 right on cue... I imagine that the W5 will most likely be relatively short due to the length of W3.....


----------



## waz

Any ideas on why the Au$ shot up at pretty much 11:30am??

It went up from around 83.80 to 83.99 in a minute, then from 84 to 84.20 in the next 25 mins.

This morning it was pretty much flat trading from 10am to 11:30am.


----------



## waz

Looks like the better than expected GDP figure caused the jump.


----------



## Kauri

waz said:


> Any ideas on why the Au$ shot up at pretty much 11:30am??
> 
> It went up from around 83.80 to 83.99 in a minute, then from 84 to 84.20 in the next 25 mins.
> 
> This morning it was pretty much flat trading from 10am to 11:30am.




  RBA left rates on hold today.. and the general consensus is that they will not need to be raised over the rest of the year...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

o my dear,

off it goes enjoy, Kauri!


----------



## Kauri

She seems to be losing a bit of momentum around the expected W5 area... will be interesting to see how our northern friends treat it tonight...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> She seems to be losing a bit of momentum around the expected W5 area... will be interesting to see how our northern friends treat it tonight...




Well I had a ripper last night US made a come I am thinking.

all my positions closed and back under resistence. 

looking at the aussie failed at 85, look for a continuation entry.


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Well I had a ripper last night US made a come I am thinking.
> 
> all my positions closed and back under resistence.
> 
> looking at the aussie failed at 85, look for a continuation entry.




 Hi Tradeit,
                Yes, good night for the USD pairs... my stop took me out,,, now looking to see if she retraces to the W2 area... seems the BOE and Nth Korea combined did the trick....
       Cheers
                  Kauri...


----------



## Kauri

Will be interesting to see if this forms up into a C wave..


----------



## Kauri

Looks a little shallow for the *c* to finish the W2 but it may be in... no chance to re-enter so far if this is the start of a W3... however at least the stop for the long term part of the trade looks like it can come up from the break-even line...


----------



## Kauri

Haven't been tempted to look for a re-entry pyramid on this yet, although the momentum appears to be bottoming out I am not convinced the W2 has played out fully yet??? For the same reason I am leaving my longer-term stop at breakeven for the time being.


----------



## Kauri

Still not overly confident of this pair... although it seems she may be forming a W*1*-W*2* ... and momentum seems to be shifting up again... will wait and see if W1 high is taken out and then if an entry setup develops...


----------



## Kauri

The daily looks OK if it is going to form a typical W2 but the 4Hourly is rapidly losing any decent kind of shape...


----------



## Kauri

Well looks like the W*2* *may* be in, although another push down yet wouldn't surprise... will watch on the 4 Hourly to see if momentum picks up and a tradeable minor W1-W2 entry set-up presents to allow me a pyramid.. will at least present an opportunity to move my long-term stop up to lock in a profit on that portion of the trade.


----------



## nizar

Kauri said:


> Well looks like the W*2* *may* be in, although another push down yet wouldn't surprise... will watch on the 4 Hourly to see if momentum picks up and a tradeable minor W1-W2 entry set-up presents to allow me a pyramid.. will at least present an opportunity to move my long-term stop up to lock in a profit on that portion of the trade.




Hi Kauri.

Do you mainly trade forex on 4hourly charts?
Whats do you think would be your average trade time?

Do you think its possible to develop a weekly system to trade forex?
ie. do your analysis at the weekend and place orders before sydney monday open?

It seems that forex is more suited for daytraders as opposed to longterm trend traders?


----------



## Kauri

nizar said:


> Hi Kauri.
> 
> Do you mainly trade forex on 4hourly charts?



 Yes, started out on daily but found the 4hourly gave me a more suitable amount of trades and easier to identify trade and pyramid opps. 



> Whats do you think would be your average trade time?



  Differs, when I enter a trade I take a long and short-term position, the short-term is mainly for my psychology/peace of mind/lack of stress... i.e. if you look at my last trade on this thread my long-term trade although at market is well in profit the stop is still at breakeven  . 
  The long-term is designed to take as much out of the longer trend, as per chart attached *if* this W*5 (by my questionable E/W count)* plays out my original and any pyramid trades added will play out around September... (looking for a smilie with egg on face to insert here but can't find one )...




> Do you think its possible to develop a weekly system to trade forex?
> ie. do your analysis at the weekend and place orders before sydney monday open?



  I've never tried but a trend is a trend is a trend, whether it is hourly, daily, or weekly.. try looking at some P+F charts where time is taken out of the picture, you will find some good trends there.




> It seems that forex is more suited for daytraders as opposed to longterm trend traders?



  As above...also I imagine depends on the person and their situation..

       Cheers
            Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

nizar said:


> Hi Kauri.
> 
> Do you mainly trade forex on 4hourly charts?
> Whats do you think would be your average trade time?
> 
> Do you think its possible to develop a weekly system to trade forex?
> ie. do your analysis at the weekend and place orders before sydney monday open?
> 
> It seems that forex is more suited for daytraders as opposed to longterm trend traders?




Nizar,

You can trade FOREX in any time frame as they form very long grinding trends do to how liquid the market is.

Like Kauri I look at trading on 4hour, but most of my trades are on a daily chart.

if you can pick a trend reversal on a weekly or monthly there is nothing stopping you from trading on that time frame.

But if your looking to hold for longer times understanding the longer term fundamentals with help you greatly in predicting what's coming on the chart.

1 tip from what i learnt the hard way in FX dont take to many highly colirated trades, eg 5 trades all banking on a falling us $ then you have five seperate problems when the us comes at u.

i learnt that last week i had 1 spot gold and 3 other fx trades all banking on a weak us then it come tumbling down!

cheers!

good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Fellow Dollar Buzzards!

that brief rally in the US seems to have stopped and the aud has found support on its 38% retracement support line very good bullish sign for now.

i have taken a long with stops at the previous low on the tail.

still needs to beat a downward resistance line but looks ok to me thus far.

Kauri.

quick Q for u now i know waves need a 12345 count with a abc to make it a complete cycle.
what happen if it gets to 5a then goes up passed highs whats that a failed wave 5a then 5 count keeps going till abc is completed?


----------



## Kauri

A little wary here, looks to be a good set-up but it is Frantic Friday in the US.... ann.volatility can be fairly rough...


----------



## Kauri

Well the skippy has hopped off to a good start.. still early stages yet though ... and at last I get to move my original long-term trade stop into the money...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Well the skippy has hopped off to a good start.. still early stages yet though ... and at last I get to move my original long-term trade stop into the money...




it was very itchy Kauri until the fed said rates to stay the same so it saw some new interest.

i my self look for support and if i wear a stop so be it.

same as my dow play and other plays i look for lines drawn by the bulls and i am happy to play a test to the line.

also moved my stop and will watch it, a new trend in my opinion has formed and i will be looking to add but not in any mad rush. your wave analyisis is great Kauri keep the charts coming.


----------



## Kauri

Is in the area price/timewise whare a minor W3 could develop... although time is not that relevent in such a short move(barwise)??


----------



## Kauri

I generally have trouble tracing out the minor waves in shorter timeframes... may be either forming the minor 5th and then again it may already be in and is now on the next degree wave up looking for W*2*?? Time (non-Gann) will tell...


----------



## Kauri

Well the next degree W*1* is in, now to see if it extends that wave or retreats into a W*2*... mind you with the lack of direction from the U.S re economic releases for the rest of the week it will probably drift for a while???


----------



## Kauri

It would *seem* that the W*1* is in and we are on our way to a W*2*?? Have included the *time* components for those interested.. the top line of dates are taken from the 1-2 wave, the lower row of dates from the 0-1 wave.. these dates are based simply on fib ratios... the three red arrows on the top are based on a fib time blitz that show all fib points time-wise based on past swings, they are where the major/tall clusters are..based on the time blitz groupings in the indicator panel at bottom of chart. All far too complicated and ambiguous for me to try to incorporate into my trading, if I want to use time I find the yellow rectangle showing the most likely E/W price/fib time confluence projection area, which is computer generated dependant on my placing of the swings, the best rough guide, and it only needs a click of the mouse to generate. Anything more complicated than that and I find personally that I don't have the time for time....
  Time out
  Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri, 

took profits i min a go as it is looking like that trend could move away.

there is a 2 touch support to help show some evidence of support but i am now waiting to see what happens with the price at top resistance.

believe it or not your time projection of low 84 cents is exactly what my market report suggested. so nice work.

I am now going to watch and see where this goes my support in minor on the back of fair amount of weakness but i am not ruling out a upward continuation occurring with a ascending triangle in place.

I have mapped out the three possibilities i see, waiting on confirmation.


----------



## Kauri

And just to clutter it up further I have added the fib time points from the last swing  2-*1*. I'm having about as much fun as a one-legged tap dancer

More time out
Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Hi TradeIt,
              In a bit of a vacumn at the moment, not much economic news due today/tonight so no drivers to move it either way... the retrace wasn't near deep enough for me to call a W*2,* would have liked to see at least a 38% dip .. so will wait it out and let it develop... could be forming into an ascending triangle, if it is and breaks to the upside that would suggest to me that the W*2*, albeit shallow, is indeed in and we could be looking at the next leg up... 
              The first Fib Time Blitz point has come and gone... maybe the next one will inspire a reaction??? (Off to ask the Budgies what they think)
....Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Didn't get to take a pyramid trade on the break due to the shallow W*2*... at least the short-term part of the trade now has its stop set in the money.... and the possible break has come slap bang in the middle of the two Fib Time blitz points???     I still have no time for time..    ..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Yep.........

I saw it to Kauri,

put a couple contracts long when i saw it breaking resistence,

tightish stop in place in case it cant manage to hold it push see where this goes.


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Yep.........
> 
> I saw it to Kauri,
> 
> put a couple contracts long when i saw it breaking resistence,
> 
> tightish stop in place in case it cant manage to hold it push see where this goes.




   Trade_it,
              You're a lot shorter time frame than me so it probably won't worry your trade but for mine I wouldn't be surprised to see her break down in a lower degree wave like the one I have attached???
          Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Looks like the minor W2 is in, now to see if it rebounds and carries on upwards???...


----------



## Kauri

As allways the minor waves give me trouble labelling them, regardless it still looks like the minor W2 may be in, the "_message between the lines_" in the FOMC release later this week will set the tone I guess.....


----------



## Kauri

Have moved the pyramided long-term stop up, now both long-term trades are in the money...   ..


----------



## Kauri

Well that has closed out all the open trades.... will watch and see what happens from here... looks like my count is out of kilter somewhere..   
.......Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Karui,

I was caught last night again!

Saw it moving and breaking resistance and when it hit 85 I was thinking rather positive.

Well woke up to a stop and now it seams to be making a minor retrace, I will be watching to see where it gets down to the main trend line. Looking for resistance line to be broken with support. Pointing to a 38% retrace but my eye's are open.

I see gold is in a short term down move us dollar related?


----------



## TraderPro

Hey guys... do you use any trading systems when you trade the Aussie Dollar? All I see in this thread is a lot of technical talk... hehe

What software/dealer are your charts from Kauri and Trade-It?

I've watched the dollar go from 85 cents last night to where it is now around 84.08 cents... I just heard some analyst on TV say that the dollar remains volatile and it can keep going up or crashing down... What's your take?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

TraderPro said:


> Hey guys... do you use any trading systems when you trade the Aussie Dollar? All I see in this thread is a lot of technical talk... hehe
> 
> What software/dealer are your charts from Kauri and Trade-It?
> 
> I've watched the dollar go from 85 cents last night to where it is now around 84.08 cents... I just heard some analyst on TV say that the dollar remains volatile and it can keep going up or crashing down... What's your take?




Hi trader pro,

I don't use a mechanical trading system just what's on my chart. I use Ig markets and there charts, to get the long term view I look at various sites that offer monthly charts of the AUD


the analyst made a rather obvious statement my girl friend could have told me that!

Based on what is happening right now I would not rush into any longs a retracement is in force coming back to its 38% Fibb support level.

I was long last night when it just tried to move over 85, that was a strong wall that proved to high for now at least.

there is another resistance point under 85 at 84.80 that still stands.

I am looking for support to be found and a new break off that point with a breaking of the minor downward line to go long again.

**if you decide to go long or short off any opinion i have, you do so at your own peril**


cheers 
joseph


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I dont know what happened in the aussie dollar today but what ever caused this was big!

Got in and well its just gone!

OK technicals.

Took a long due to strong rebound that came from the 50% fibb point. the selling bounced off a previous support point I had in. still moving a long its trend, + double bottom.

Minor resistance line to beat now plus mayor resistence1 84.8 and 2 85. 

Stop under the 61% retrace point of the current period at 8390

Lets see where this goes!


----------



## TraderPro

Thanks Trade_It aka Joseph...

I found this commentary in the news section of CMC's software:



> Buy AUD/USD 1-month butterflies to position for market doldrums into N. Hemisphere summer: exploit vol spike with strictly limited-risk play to take in premium, capture time decay, earn high yield if spot behaves.
> Sell July 31 AUD/USD ATMF (0.8425) straddle from 7.60% vol, buy 10-delta (0.8157/0.8695) strangle from 8.10% for net credit of 135 USD pips, or $135,000 on AUD10 million notional - getting long the 10-delta butterfly for 0.50 vol point.
> 
> Maximum risk limited to difference between straddle strike and strangle's high or low strike. Set low strike below expected support, high strike above expected resistance. Traders can morph exposure to suit changing views as butterfly is equivalent to call spread plus put spread, as well as short straddle plus long strangle.
> 
> If AUD/USD vols decline but spot looks biased higher, butterfly holder could buy back short ATMF call, sell the OTM call, effectively taking profits on short call spread, retaining short put spread.
> 
> For those comfortable with outright negative gamma and confident AUD/USD spot will regain composure, consider selling ATMF straddle outright initially, waiting for vols to fall before adding long wing vol. This improves position's risk:reward but exposes trader to unbounded risk until long strangle is added.
> Traders can also leg into butterfly by selling call spread at top of expected spot range, waiting for spot to fall near expected support before completing butterfly by selling put spread. This also improves risk:reward, while keeping exposure strictly limited to difference between strikes.




Is there anyone out there that can explain this analysis? It sounds like they're talking about options or forwards on the currency position...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

TraderPro said:


> Thanks Trade_It aka Joseph...
> 
> I found this commentary in the news section of CMC's software:
> 
> 
> 
> Is there anyone out there that can explain this analysis? It sounds like they're talking about options or forwards on the currency position...




Yes Trader Pro 

They are option strategies for the spot and forwards prices.


----------



## Kauri

Might be due for a bit of a bounce???
  Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## DTM

I took the trade around 3pm today because the Aussie looked like it was double bottoming out on the 5min time frame and bought around 8.216 but didn't read the signal properly as it went down to around 8.208 before moving up.  It has now moved up very strongly and seems to be bottoming out on the short term charts.  

I just sold out a few minutes ago at .8272 where it was hitting my resistance level.

I haven't put up a chart because I'm using Chart station (which is a free online charting software) and I don't know how to save the charts onto my computer.  I wish it was a bit more functional but it has enough to get the job done.

I did post the trade around 3pm but must have done something wrong submitting it because it hasn't showed up.   

If someone could post a chart it would be great.  

Daniel


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## DTM

DTM said:


> I just sold out a few minutes ago at .8272 where it was hitting my resistance level.




The resistance turned support line of around .8272 didn't hold and has fallen through to .8760.  It's still looks strong and appears to be on solid support but am going off to bed now.


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## professor_frink

DTM said:


> I took the trade around 3pm today because the Aussie looked like it was double bottoming out on the 5min time frame and bought around 8.216 but didn't read the signal properly as it went down to around 8.208 before moving up.  It has now moved up very strongly and seems to be bottoming out on the short term charts.
> 
> I just sold out a few minutes ago at .8272 where it was hitting my resistance level.
> 
> I haven't put up a chart because I'm using Chart station (which is a free online charting software) and I don't know how to save the charts onto my computer.  I wish it was a bit more functional but it has enough to get the job done.
> 
> I did post the trade around 3pm but must have done something wrong submitting it because it hasn't showed up.
> 
> If someone could post a chart it would be great.
> 
> Daniel




here you go Daniel-


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## DTM

Thanks for the chart professor.

Wow..., did any one catch that movement down??  It showed the double top in the 5 min time frame after I went to bed and it was a nice movement down.  Its currently sitting on a major support of mine at .808 and looks to be holding.  

I'll take a look again this afternoon but for now am off to the Gym.


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## DTM

Looking at todays movements, my support held and we had some nice movements up today.  It seems to have hit resistance at .8200 before retreating and looks like its going to have a run at it again.  I just took the trade at .8172 and have set my stop at .8160 with a target of the previous day's high.

I'm using the minute chart frame to time entry and this looks like a short term trade.


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## DTM

And trade was taken off at .8200 from the target order I set up.  I was at 8213 and was looking to take trade off but forgot about my stop order.

Looking at the movement, its on resistance/support but I think short opportunities would be coming up soon.  I would like to follow it but dishes are calling me.


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## DTM

DTM said:


> And trade was taken off at .8200 from the target order I set up.  I was at 8213 and was looking to take trade off but forgot about my stop order.
> 
> Looking at the movement, its on resistance/support but I think short opportunities would be coming up soon.  I would like to follow it but dishes are calling me.




And a nice drop down to .8150


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## DTM

And cant seem to sleep.  Took a peek again at the AUDUSD and its going through a narrow band.  Took the trade at .8167 with a stop loss at .8155 and looking for another approach up again.

Good thing about FX for insomniacs is that you can log on anytime and check the markets.  

Sorry for not putting up charts.  I cant get them pasted with my postings to show the reasons I'm taking the trades.  Again I'm using the 5min time frames to get direction and using 1minute charts for entry.  If anyone had the one minute or 5 minute charts it would be great.

Daniel


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## DTM

Okay, took the trade off.  Bought at .81670 when support was holding and then it moved up to about .8190 before meandering back down to my original support line.  It looks like its starting to move up again but I sold at .81760 because its very late and I have to be up early to take the kids to school.


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## DTM

Ok, taken a look at the Aussie and its forming a flag/triangle on the 5 minute chart.  I've finally managed to figure that to get the chart, I have to print and then scan it into the computer.  I've taken the trade to go down at .81770 when it looked like it had double topped and now its forming a head and shoulders on the minute chart.  Stop loss is at .81900, initial target .8150 then maybe around .8140.


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## professor_frink

DTM said:


> Ok, taken a look at the Aussie and its forming a flag/triangle on the 5 minute chart.  I've finally managed to figure that to get the chart, I have to print and then scan it into the computer.  I've taken the trade to go down at .81770 when it looked like it had double topped and now its forming a head and shoulders on the minute chart.  Stop loss is at .81900, initial target .8150 then maybe around .8140.




morning DTM,

If you want some charts you can post on ASF, you could go and download MT4. 

This is where I got my copy from-

http://www.northfinance.com/

Has heaps of different crosses, plus some commodities and indexes too. 

Looks like the ozzy is good to get down to your target at the moment


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## DTM

Hope this chart shows through


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## DTM

Now  trade has been taken off at a different support level to what I previously had.  Price action suggested that in the short term time frame, it will start moving up so bought back at .81640.  On the longer time frames an interesting triangle or pennant is forming and would love to track it but time isn't something I have enough off.  I have to go and prepare lunch for my two younger ones now.

Happy trading


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## DTM

Wow, guess I was right, I've just taken a peek again and its jumped up to .81800

There's a lot of risk involved.


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## >Apocalypto<

I took a 3 mini contracts long on the aussie$$ at 81.88 cents.

There was a range that was broken out off plus it broke the minor short term trend line suggesting a shot at higher prices. has taken off nicely, new trend line also confirmed for now buy the break out.

Looking for a higher lows to set up adding opportunities.

Green arrow my entry candle

Good trading


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## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> I took a 3 mini contracts long on the aussie$$ at 81.88 cents.
> 
> There was a range that was broken out off plus it broke the minor short term trend line suggesting a shot at higher prices. has taken off nicely, new trend line also confirmed for now buy the break out.
> 
> Looking for a higher lows to set up adding opportunities.
> 
> Green arrow my entry candle
> 
> Good trading




Just like the euro/usd it was one hell of a roller coaster stopped out on my trade then after seeing it finding support opened up new longs quite close to the bottom. now in profit see what monday brings, as long as the aud can hold over 81.30 cents its still a long for now.

good trading


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## DTM

professor_frink said:


> morning DTM,
> 
> If you want some charts you can post on ASF, you could go and download MT4.
> 
> This is where I got my copy from-
> 
> http://www.northfinance.com/
> 
> Has heaps of different crosses, plus some commodities and indexes too.
> 
> Looks like the ozzy is good to get down to your target at the moment





Thanks again Professor, having a look around now.



Trade_It said:


> just like the euro/usd it was one hell of a roller coaster stopped out on my trade then after seeing it finding support opened up new longs quite close to the bottom. now in profit see what monday brings, as long as the aud can hold over 81.30 cents its still a long for now.
> 
> good trading




Good luck Trade it, hope it works out.  Are you trading the two pairs at the same time.  I had a quick look at it before and it seemed to both move the same way.  Maybe you should check if one leads the other.


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## DTM

Taken a peek at the markets and looks like trading opportunities are coming up.  Will take another look again this arvo or tonight.

The Aussie has been trading in a tight range and is building momentum for a big move up.  It has been forming a pennant on the hourly charts and now the signal has been given on the 5 minutely and 1minutely chart that its moving up.  

Short term can expect it to break out of its range.  The Japanese Yen follows very closely in this relationship.  The Euro and GBP were travelling in the same fashion but the GBP seems to be disconnected with the Euro in relationship to the USD.

The Aussies jumped from around .8200 to .8255 whilst typing this out.  Look for a retracement and support around .8255.


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## DTM

And here is the corresponding move.

Now its time to get back to work.

Safe trading


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## caribean

Aussie GDP news release was responsible for that jump, DTM..


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## caribean

is .8270 going to be the top for the Aussie tonight?
or will it make it all hte way to .8300...


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## DTM

Got called in to work and just got home now.  



caribean said:


> Aussie GDP news release was responsible for that jump, DTM..




Hi Caribean, I think I know now when they talk about technicals versus fundamentalists.  The charts the way I was reading it was always going to head up, although I don't think it will be a strong move up.  Longer term charts on the daily and weekly shows me that its still in the bounce mode from where it sold off 26 August, and that it will retest .7900 - .7800 before heading up.

The size of the growth doesn't look like its suprised the market too much.



caribean said:


> is .8270 going to be the top for the Aussie tonight?
> or will it make it all hte way to .8300...




Taking a quick look now and the aussies testing my major support at the .8225 mark and seems to be bouncing along it too much.  It could drop off.  Its currently showing a nice oversold signal on the .8225 and good opportunity for a trade, although it would be very short term.  

.8225 was the breakout point I had drawn earlier although reading my previous post I accidentally said that it will retest .8255 instead of .8225.  

No time to watch it properly and make a trade as the kids will be up in 4 hours.  Best to go to sleep.

Happy trading


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## DTM

Just got in from work.  Looking at the Aussie it looks a over bought.  Its resting on strong support after breaking through at .8270

Trying to time the selling of the Aussie on the one  minute and per pip charts.  Looking for a trade for half an hour or so.


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## explod

DTM said:


> Just got in from work.  Looking at the Aussie it looks a over bought.  Its resting on strong support after breaking through at .8270
> 
> Trying to time the selling of the Aussie on the one  minute and per pip charts.  Looking for a trade for half an hour or so.





Us dollar falling with gold breaking new ground for the year.  Think you will find aussie will keep going up from here.    Sub prime woes and property forclosures hitting extra bad time in news out tonight


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## DTM

Okay, sell order at .8274 with a stop loss at .8285 and looking for first target of around .8250


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## DTM

OK taken the trade off.  Sold at .8274 bought back at .8270.  Its taking a long time to move and is trading within a small range and I'm too tired to follow it.


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## Naif

hi DTM i like your psots..

the audusd is in a  small range and today close very important, if the daily close below 8270 then i suggest that audusd is going to test 8248, 8225,8202  and that is what i expect...
the 2nd scenario if the daily close above the 8290 , then we might see next week 8307, 8354.. 
anyway till now i expect that the dollar will show strength against all currencies and the audusd trend is down for the ST..

keep the good work DTM

good luck everyone


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## DTM

Most of the movement down has been missed for the day.  Its dropped from around .8276 to .8171 and starting a small rally.  I have bought in at .8194 when it looked oversold on the minutely and 5 minutely charts.  Stop loss at .8185 and looking for a 30 minute trade.  It doesn't look its going to move very much today.


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## DTM

Okay, taken a lot longer than I thought and I've run out of time.  

Looks like its reached a pivot point.  Taken the trade off @.8210 and breaking through resistance, expecting to settle on it again as support.  

Chart to follow.


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## DTM

Aussie still climbing but I've run out of time.  Thats the problem with being a part time trader.


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## Naif

Naif said:


> hi DTM i like your psots..
> 
> the audusd is in a  small range and today close very important, if the daily close below 8270 then i suggest that audusd is going to test 8248, 8225,8202  and that is what i expect...
> the 2nd scenario if the daily close above the 8290 , then we might see next week 8307, 8354..
> anyway till now i expect that the dollar will show strength against all currencies and the audusd trend is down for the ST..
> 
> keep the good work DTM
> 
> good luck everyone



friday close was below 8270 ... which means that they traders wants to see 8202.. and today`s low is 8171.. and now the price is 8226...
after breaking the up-trendline , the audusd is more likely to stay below 8270 unless usa data show weakness and aud data show strength.. i would prefer to sell audusd from resistance.. any close below 8163 that will indicate that we gonna see 8003

good luck


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## Kauri

Naif said:


> friday close was below 8270 ... which means that they traders wants to see 8202.. and today`s low is 8171.. and now the price is 8226...
> after breaking the up-trendline , the audusd is more likely to stay below 8270 unless usa data show weakness and aud data show strength.. i would prefer to sell audusd from resistance.. any close below 8163 that will indicate that we gonna see 8003
> 
> good luck




 Hi Naif,
         I'm in two minds at the moment    ... waiting to let it develop a bit more..  
  Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Hi Naif,
> I'm in two minds at the moment  ... waiting to let it develop a bit more..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




  Looks like someone else is in two minds as well..    
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## DTM

DTM said:


> Okay, taken a lot longer than I thought and I've run out of time.
> 
> Looks like its reached a pivot point.  Taken the trade off @.8210 and breaking through resistance, expecting to settle on it again as support.
> 
> Chart to follow.




Taking a peek again its hit .8234 and now looking for support around .8215.  Will take another look again later tonight.


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## Naif

Kauri said:


> Looks like someone else is in two minds as well..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




hi kauri.. 
8225 is important its 61.8 fibo in hourly chart, and also MA 200 days.. if it close today below 8215 that would take the aud to 8202 and then 8175 and 8163 ... but the close above 8225 means that aud will go up to test  8270


good luck


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## Naif

Naif said:


> hi kauri..
> 8225 is important its 61.8 fibo in hourly chart, and also MA 200 days.. if it close today below 8215 that would take the aud to 8202 and then 8175 and 8163 ... but the close above 8225 means that aud will go up to test  8270
> 
> 
> good luck





after the one hour bar closed above 8225..the high till now is 8267...
i think shorting from 8271 for 20-40pips profit would be a good idea with stop loss only 15 pips, and now i think its not really clear if the trend is up or down.. i will wait for more confirmations..


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## Naif

audusd now is 8224... 
the price didnt reach 8271 and didnt short .. 
i will wait for the daily close.. i still prefer to sell highs and will not buy from supports...
lets see


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## DTM

Naif said:


> audusd now is 8224...
> the price didnt reach 8271 and didnt short ..
> i will wait for the daily close.. i still prefer to sell highs and will not buy from supports...
> lets see




Close call, it looks like it hit .8270 before declining.  Looks like its resting on support at .8240 and looking to go up again.  Nice trade opportunity.


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## Naif

DTM said:


> Close call, it looks like it hit .8270 before declining.  Looks like its resting on support at .8240 and looking to go up again.  Nice trade opportunity.




yesterday close was above 8225 , and it was a good trade to buy and the initial target 8271.. im still not sure where the audusd will head... so i`m waitin for more confirmations...
here what i see on the chart... its the daily chart..


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## Naif

Naif said:


> hi kauri..
> 8225 is important its 61.8 fibo in hourly chart, and also MA 200 days.. if it close today below 8215 that would take the aud to 8202 and then 8175 and 8163 ... but the close above 8225 means that aud will go up to test  8270
> 
> 
> good luck




after the daily close above 8225 it tested 8270, and after the hourly bar closed above 8270 it tested 8307 and the high 8314.. if the daily close above 8270  that wud indicate that the next target is 8340..
if the daily close above 8270 i will wait for the price to test the support and will buy from 8275-80 with stop 20pips and 1st target 8307, 2nd target 8335..

good luck


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## DTM

DTM said:


> Close call, it looks like it hit .8270 before declining.  Looks like its resting on support at .8240 and looking to go up again.  Nice trade opportunity.




And there she blows.  Up to .8350.   I hope someone caught that wave up.


:bowser:


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## >Apocalypto<

DTM said:


> And there she blows.  Up to .8350.   I hope someone caught that wave up.
> 
> 
> :bowser:




I was long on it DTM,

Whatever Ben B said really picked things up. I took profits this morning, want to see a retrace/banding pattern on 4hour chart then look to jump back on.


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## Naif

if the audusd today reach 8390 it will be a good chance for me to go short for 45 pips profit with stop loss at 8405 .. because the pair will move about 66 pips today.. and its a top in the daily chart + 38 fibo on the daily...

good luck everyone


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## DTM

DTM said:


> And there she blows.  Up to .8350.   I hope someone caught that wave up.
> 
> 
> :bowser:




And still going strong at .8432


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## Naif

Naif said:


> if the audusd today reach 8390 it will be a good chance for me to go short for 45 pips profit with stop loss at 8405 .. because the pair will move about 66 pips today.. and its a top in the daily chart + 38 fibo on the daily...
> 
> good luck everyone




it hitted my SL 15 pips..


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## DTM

Taking a quick look at the Aussie and its sky rocketed to above .8500 after it broke through my major resistance of .8350 early this morning around 4am US time I imagine.

The Aussies had a lot of good movements, lots of volatility and now price is compressing building pressure.  Its sitting on support but its a little bit under resistance and forming a quasi pennant.  It needs to break above the resistance of around .8520 - .8525 and to stay above .8505 for me to think its going to go up.  On the daily charts, lots of divergence showing but shorter time frames say still room to go up.

I will track for the next hour and hope something happens between then.


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## DTM

DTM said:


> Taking a quick look at the Aussie and its sky rocketed to above .8500 after it broke through my major resistance of .8350 early this morning around 4am US time I imagine.
> 
> The Aussies had a lot of good movements, lots of volatility and now price is compressing building pressure.  Its sitting on support but its a little bit under resistance and forming a quasi pennant.  It needs to break above the resistance of around .8520 - .8525 and to stay above .8505 for me to think its going to go up.  On the daily charts, lots of divergence showing but shorter time frames say still room to go up.
> 
> I will track for the next hour and hope something happens between then.




Ok, after tracking it the pennant instead of shooting up dropped or slipped off the edge to give an oversold signal.  I missed the trade and waited for it instead to settle around my resistance turned support of .8525.  Its shot up again to .8545 but now showing overbought signals.  I would normally wait for the price to settle or retest support around .8530 - .8535 or .8525 but have run out of time now.  

Will look at it again in the morning if I get some time.


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## DTM

And now the Aussies @ .8620 going like the wind.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

A bullish scenario according to the article:
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22462004-462,00.html


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