# Moving Average system, test + results



## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

Hi guys, just thought id share some notes with one of my very simple systems for the day scalping EUR/USD

If anyone has anything that they do similar or has modifications of a similar system please let me know how you do anything differently thanks.

Forex Strategy’s 16/9/09

Trading strategy one FX.

Moving average system.

Settings ; EMA 9, 18, 500  (Filter)	

EUR/USD

1 min chart.

Entry : Trade will be taken long when EMA 9 crosses ma 18. Short when 18 crosses 9. Must have exit with filter (500) directional confirmation.

Exit: Trade exited when EMA 18 crosses EMA 9 for long, and EMA 9 Crosses 18 for short.

Trades entered short – 9 

Spread of 2 (2 pips)   example buy 1.4681 1.4683 

1.4633 – 1.4559 	+74      = +72
1.4608  - 1.4590	+92      = +90
1.4593 – 1.4588	+97	= +95
1.4612 – 1.4610	+2	= 0
1.4601 – 1.4606	-5	= -7
1.4600 – 1.4579	+21	= +19
1.4597 – 1.4588	+9 	= +7
1.4602 – 1.4596	+6	=  +4


Long trades 10

1.4596 – 1.4611	+15	= +13
1.4612 – 1.4666	+54	= +52
1.4664 – 1.4671	+7	= +5
1.4662 – 1.4667	+5	= +3
1.4665 – 1.4669	+4  	= +2
1.4671 – 1.4677	+6	= +4
1.4671 – 1.4667	-4  	= - 6
“”	- “”	-4	= - 6
1.4667 – 1.4678	+11	= +9
1.4675 -  1.4686	+11	= + 9

Assuming $1 per pip value

Profit loss for the day =  +$365


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## Cartman (16 September 2009)

Luke --- did u actually get those results on a demo or even micro account? -- or were they just hindsight trades u slotted into the chart after work ?? -- (i thought so   )

not being disrespectful my friend ---- i am your cynical guardian angel 

try the 9-18 EMA theory with real money in real time and get back to us in a month with the results --- u wont be happy !! 

but good onya for trying something ---- keep searching


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## prawn_86 (16 September 2009)

Yeh im not aware of any MA systems that work due to the fact that MAs are a lagging indicator. A bigger sample than one day would be needed, and it would need to be on an actual demo/micro as Cartman said


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

hmmmm seems your right, i havent tried moving averages with fx before, i just tried it with demo, it isnt working, why doesnt my paper test show that then :s


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## Cartman (16 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> hmmmm seems your right, i havent tried moving averages with fx before, i just tried it with demo,* it isnt working*, why doesnt my paper test show that then :s




lol ----- a bit of humour i detect --- i like that ----

Luke ---- not gona say too much, but lets imagine our EMA cross is testing a previous support/resistance level and the momentum of buying/selling is low/high (u have to work that one out yourself  ----

then the cross may have *some* significance (depending on your time frame) 

wadaya think about that?


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

yeah the lagg of the entry and exit is really really hurting, and it does appear to have a better result on the 30 min time frame. will have to refine it i guess. o well i'll keep testing til i get it right.


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## skyQuake (16 September 2009)

10 longs/shorts only? Probably just luck or other factors.
Maybe a few thousand at least before you can call it a system.


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

and yes cartman i have noticed with particular ema's do act as good support resistance pionts. i have to say im not having much luck scalping fx. its much different to my usual equity attack.


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## Cartman (16 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> yeah the lagg of the entry and exit is really really hurting, and it does appear to have a better result on the 30 min time frame. will have to refine it i guess. o well i'll keep testing til i get it right.




short term swing trading is probably a better place to start (and end  --

concentrate on *support and resistance levels*  ---

and *Position Sizing* !!!! ---

good luck with it ---- your frustration has just begun ---lol ----


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> 10 longs/shorts only? Probably just luck or other factors.
> Maybe a few thousand at least before you can call it a system.




yeah agreed, that was just from one day, my data only goes back for about 1 week anway

well so far its a failing system anyway, need some tweaks. just trying to get 

advice from people who use similiar stradegies with fx


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

Cartman said:


> short term swing trading is probably a better place to start (and end  --
> 
> concentrate on *support and resistance levels*  ---
> 
> ...




well funnily enough the only principles that have worked for me so far in fx, are formations such as triangles, dojis, EW and S/R. But i feel im not getting nearly enough out of the market as i could be. There has to be more to it! surely 

I just dont know it yet


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## Cartman (16 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> and yes cartman i have noticed with particular ema's do act as good support resistance pionts. i have to say im not having much luck scalping fx. its much different to my usual equity attack.




Luke ---- EMA's have nothing to do with S/R levels --- they just visually represent the *momentum* of price behavior ----  

and thats all they should be used for !! ----- but *momentum is the key to good entries* --- *money management is the key to longevity* in this game !!


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

well i have observed certian MA, commonly used MA which seem to contain prices to some level. Im not saying they are all S/R levels at all, you misinterpreted what i said


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## white_goodman (16 September 2009)

you could probably curve fit any number of MA cross, stoch indicator etc systems in backtesting data... for any 'system' make sure you forward test


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## Bobby (16 September 2009)

Cartman said:


> *momentum is the key to good entries* --- *money management is the key to longevity* in this game !!




Simple stuff but good advice   !


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## lukeaye (16 September 2009)

what do you guys advice for momentum indicators for fx


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## >Apocalypto< (16 September 2009)

lukeaye said:


> what do you guys advice for momentum indicators for fx




don't use them, same issue lag on a 1min chart.

using EMAs in 1 min FX does work as long as you know how to approach it.


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## Cartman (17 September 2009)

Bobby said:


> Simple stuff but good advice   !




g'day Bob ---long time no speak 

simple is my middle name ---- call me Simon 



lukeaye said:


> what do you guys advice for momentum indicators for fx





latest highs/lows relative to previous highs/lows --- relative to time --- relative to previous support and resistance points

relatively speaking thats simply about it. --- call me Uncle Simon !!


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