# FLT - Flight Centre Travel Group



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 April 2005)

What's happening with this stock?


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## GreatPig (21 April 2005)

*Re: Flight centre*

From what I can see, it's just continuing the geneal down trend it's been on since 2002.

Cheers,
GP


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## dutchie (21 April 2005)

*Re: Flight centre*

All travel agencies must be suffering from the fact that so much travel information is available on the net and more importantly it is very easy and convenient to book flights/accomodation/excursions/tours etc yourself.


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## WaySolid (21 April 2005)

*Re: Flight centre*

A case of poor fundamentals.

They are being left behind in the technology stakes. Visit their website and try and research an international airfare. I'm not sure what role TA might play in this stock but have a personal view that I wouldn't touch it with a stick on the long side.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (22 April 2005)

*Re: Flight centre*

Thanks.
Yes the fundamentals are a problem at the moment.


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## RichKid (22 April 2005)

*Re: Flight centre*

Was it Qantas that dropped a favourable arrangement with Flight Centre because of margin pressures last year? I heard that did a lot of damage to them.


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## krisbarry (22 April 2005)

*Re: Flight centre*

Flight Centre has taken many hits in recent years due to many factors: 

a) September 11th
b) Rising Fuel Costs - Airline fuel surcharges
c) Decreased Agency Commissions
d) Online travel agency such as webjet are becoming more popular
e) E-Tickets
f) SARS Virus
g) recent bad press (ACCC) due to slogan "Best Prices Guaranteed"
h) Flight Centre Stores look out of date, very 90's.  In urgent need of a make-over

etc. etc.

Travel/Aviation industry world wide is not looking to good.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 June 2005)

*Those who hold Flight Centre*

This is purely for entertainment. 

Those of you who hold Flight Centre, would you be kind enough to disclose your purchase prices and intended plans for this stock. Where do you see it going? Why did you buy it? etc.

There is a lot of mixed information on this stock, different perceptions and analysts who have opposing views. Even the analysts of one newsletter have different views which lead to their recommendation. 

I'll start by stating I paid $15.46, basically because it was undervalued. I plan to hold for the long term if the fundamentals don't screw up further. I will constantly watch the fundamentals but won't overreact to panick selling. I see this as a quality company with a good track record, but with some problems at the moment. I believe it will only take one good profit forecast to lift this stock again. I see the competition being weaker if there is a downturn in the industry, due to the large presence of flight Centre agencies. I do concede the website issue is a problem that needs to be overcome.


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## TjamesX (3 June 2005)

*Re: Those who hold Flight Centre*

I don't hold FLT and never have, and I have never actually used their service. But some fundamental questions;

Do they make their money only on commission from selling seats or is it more involved than that. I know that the big push for people to book online direct with the airline would be having an effect and will continue to do so, especially with the move to budget flying.

I assume that they're only real leverage is through the end destination accomodation/packages and the ability to provide these at a discount to the customer because of the volume of packages they sell?

TJ


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## mime (3 June 2005)

*Re: Those who hold Flight Centre*

I don't think the long team outlook is good mainly because the internet is digging into their profits. Plus I think Qantas cut their comission from 5% to 1%.


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## TjamesX (24 June 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre  FLT*

In the age of people increasingly getting information from the web and it actually being more useful for the consumer;

Re;
realestate.com
seek.com
etc etc etc

The amount of little Flight Centre agencies popping up everywhere really does surprise me. Why couldn't they create a kickass website with graphics/pictures of avery destination/hotel you could ever want to go to and let people create/mix/match their own holiday packages is beyond me! Maybe people do prefer to talk one on one with someone who hands them a glossy brochure - and thats why there's a flight centre agency on every street....



> Travel agency group Flight Centre has again disappointed investors after warning that its full-year profit will be below last year's.
> 
> But the global company said yesterday that even though it had missed its target, shareholders could look forward to a return to "healthy" profit growth in 2005-06.
> 
> ...


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## RichKid (26 June 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Hey folks,
I've merged the two threads on flight centre into this thread. Please try to maintain just one thread per stock unless it is absolutely necessary as it helps maintain a well structured site and a flowing conversation, it may also generate more debate.
Thanks!

PS This is a chart of FLT, $14 looks like a key level. Just look at that big candle from last week!! (see GP's chart in post #2 for the long term price patterns).


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## serp (4 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

I've been checking the figures and its weird cause profits are down and dividends are up over the last coupld of years??? How does that work? Why pay out higher dividends? Is this because they aren't reinvesting profits into the business? Even though profits for last financial year are tiny compared to say 4 or 5 years beforehand.


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## tech/a (4 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Check out WEBJET WEB they are taking the market by storm.

They even post their monthly profit figures to the ASX you'll find them under announcements.
I first noticed them at 20.5c

There is one place lost profits are going.


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## el_ninj0 (4 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Check out WEBJET WEB they are taking the market by storm.
> 
> They even post their monthly profit figures to the ASX you'll find them under announcements.
> I first noticed them at 20.5c
> ...




Wow, I agree tech/a. How do you find out about such great little companies like this?


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## serp (4 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Can anyone answer my question about the rise in dividends but the fall in profit? Whats the motivation behind that?


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## serp (4 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Wow, I agree tech/a. How do you find out about such great little companies like this?




Mate, I thought everyone knows about webjet. 

Didn't realise the SP was that low though.


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## tech/a (5 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

El ninjO 
One of the benifit of technical searches.
its just turned up on a breakouts scan.

Serp.
I'm not a fundamentalist I've posted your question on Reefcap under Fundamentals---I'm sure there will be an answer.


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## tech/a (5 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Serp.

Ducati posted a good response to your question here.

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=000269


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## TjamesX (5 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Webjet came to my attention last friday.... bit of a saga at the moment and probably deserves its own thread.


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## serp (5 September 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Serp.
> 
> Ducati posted a good response to your question here.
> 
> http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=000269




Thanks tech/a, appriecate your effort.


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## Geo (9 December 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Have been watching FLT for the last month, based on the massive slide south. Thought it might have offerred some opportunities. Seems that the sentiments of earlier posts are not too wrong.

The stock seems to want to hold at around $10, however this has not factored in the the potential effect of future shocks associated with potential Bird Flu Pandemic, etc(if you know what I mean).

Unlike other large distributors who operate as Franchisors and have limited exposure to major impacts, by the fact that its Franchisees will absorb any major movements, FLT own and operate their own outlets and any shocks will have to be absorbed by shareholders alone.

The other issue of reducing margins being paid by Suppliers (Airlines, Tour Operators, Hotels, Car Hire etc) is of even more concern in that they report net profits of approximately 1% of turnover. Therfore it follows that it only requires a minor reduction in commission receipts to wipe out any profitability.

I have read that the business model with which they operate no longer carries the clout that it did and in fact has become a real burden that prevents FLT from making the necessary changes to align themselves with current market conditions. 

The general feel is that at $10 the stock still has substantial downside with predictiond ranging from $8 - $4.  If these level are reached, the real question is can, they survive.


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## Alien (9 December 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

There biggest impact which has lead to the profit downgrade and subsequent price fall has been from payments from airlines. This is where FLT make most of their profits.

Don't forget that the likes of QAN make a lot of business from FLT also. The fact that QAN have dropped their commisions from airline carriers, means that they are more likely to be able to negotiate better deals with the big players, like FLT. 

Don't underestimate the market share that FLT has in the travel market. If they no longer make there money from commisions they will do as other agencies have successfully done around the world, which is to charge a fee to the end consumer. On the amount of turnover for a business such as FLT a $10 fee payable by travellers would have a significant affect to their NPAT. 

As for people using the internet for booking their flights instead of going to a travel agent. A lot is to be said for convenience, knowledge of the industry, travel insurance and substantial infrastructure in their flight searching facilities should see their business survive. 

I bought in at $13.40 and bought more shares at $9.15. I think they will do quite well in the medium to long term from these current prices.


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## michael_selway (9 December 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*



			
				Alien said:
			
		

> There biggest impact which has lead to the profit downgrade and subsequent price fall has been from payments from airlines. This is where FLT make most of their profits.
> 
> Don't forget that the likes of QAN make a lot of business from FLT also. The fact that QAN have dropped their commisions from airline carriers, means that they are more likely to be able to negotiate better deals with the big players, like FLT.
> 
> ...




Hi thanks for the info

hm u bought it back when it was sliding down?

very dangerous strat not recommended actually, picking up stocks on the slide eg BSL & TLS & IAG!

Maybe u should have sold at 13.00 and bought it back when it rebounds from low of 9.15, maybe only if it reaches 10.00+?

Btw instead of "doubling up" you could have bought another stock with better value at that point in time?


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## WaySolid (10 December 2005)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*

Averaging down on Flight Centre? Yikes.

Good luck, hope they pick up soon.


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## Alien (14 February 2006)

*Re: Flight Centre FLT*



			
				WaySolid said:
			
		

> Averaging down on Flight Centre? Yikes.
> 
> Good luck, hope they pick up soon.




Last quarter results shown a turnaround to the decline they were experiencing. 

Obviously still a long way to go but very promising signs of a major turnaround for this company. 

I am very happy sitting on my average down for FLT.


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## justjohn (14 February 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

good luck Alien for your faith in FLT .Held this stock some 2 years ago when it was in the $24 range but started the big slide due to online bookings and tighter margins from airlines .Averaging down whilst stock was still in slide was guttsy especially with this one because the bottom seemed endless .Kicking back now so faith & patience has won in the end but dont hold to long


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## michael_selway (14 February 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				justjohn said:
			
		

> Averaging down whilst stock was still in slide was guttsy especially with this one because the bottom seemed endless




exactly, unlimited loss, can take u out of the game forever


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## It's Snake Pliskin (28 February 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

A large drop today with negative volume the last three days. Nick what`s your analysis on this one now?


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## Nick Radge (1 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Snake,
Not concerned unless volume starts to accelerate. You can see the last few days, whilst down in price, have also been on lower volume. This is weak hands taking profits after the recent strength. If it was serious selling then volume would be a lot higher. You can see Friday was an up day on high volume, so buyers are still around for the dips. I wouldn't be surprised to see them come in again if prices dip further.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Thanks Nick


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## Knobby22 (2 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

On fundamentals, I would not buy this stock.
The business is being attacked from online competitors, including the airlines.
The company has good brand awareness and may win long term but not without some desperate fighting. They are not the number one online choice to travel on. Definitely easier stocks to buy.

I would have thought technically, the story is not good either.
The stock is on a long term down trend with no sign of a break.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Knobby22 said:
			
		

> On fundamentals, I would not buy this stock.
> The business is being attacked from online competitors, including the airlines.
> The company has good brand awareness and may win long term but not without some desperate fighting. They are not the number one online choice to travel on. Definitely easier stocks to buy.
> 
> ...




Fundamentally biased heh. Yes not a long term buy at this stage.

Technically there is more money flowing in than out, however volume is still low. It could be a short term trade looking a for a dollar in profit if bought now. 

It has temporarily picked up and only time will tell.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Fundamentally biased heh. Yes not a long term buy at this stage.
> 
> Technically there is more money flowing in than out, however volume is still low. It could be a short term trade looking a for a dollar in profit if bought now.
> 
> It has temporarily picked up and only time will tell.




Well $0.70 today from the low to close! Light volume though. $12.50 may stop it in the short term when those who bought at around that price break even and get out - because they are pussy cats without kahunas. Or maybe they will be smart because the low volume is not really compelling.

Open interest will be interesting.


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## wayneL (3 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Open interest will be interesting.




Open interest?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Open interest?




I`ll rephrase it to early trading.


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## wayneL (3 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Ah Gotcha!


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## Nick Radge (3 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Light volume is of concern, but as yet nothing to act on. The "background" picture is what is important and the back ground suggests professional buying. If they beleive they will get their fill at current levels they will simply sit and absorb any offers. If they think they can get their fill at a lower level they will back off.

One thing to remember is that professional money "accumulates" supply. This has been in operation since November as you can see with the higher stopping volume. Prices went sideways on extended low volume. The recent move to $12.50 was on increased volume suggesting the professionals had to start paying up because they did not get their fill at the lower levels. This makes sense because of the announcement.  Once professional money has accumulated the available supply then prices will naturally rise, even on low volume. Professionals tend to be the first ones in and are then followed bu the weaker hands who are the one's that tend to slowly push prices higher. 

Nick

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


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## It's Snake Pliskin (4 March 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Light volume is of concern, but as yet nothing to act on. The "background" picture is what is important and the back ground suggests professional buying.
> 
> One thing to remember is that professional money "accumulates" supply.
> 
> ...




I think this is good for all to read.

Nick it is always a pleasure reading your posts.
Snake :bekloppt:


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## twojacks28 (12 April 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

the main reason why flight centre is going so badly at the moment is beacuse many airlines have lowered the commisions which they give to travel agencies such as fligh centre. I also think that they may need a revamp of their management. it just dosent seem to be working for them.

twojacks28


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## Alien (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Announcement today. A $17.20 offer for shareholders valuing the company at $1.62b. 

Happy days. Bought at $13.40 and bought a lot more at $9.15 when they reported a bad first half last year. Not a bad return I am sitting on. 

Anyone else hold Flight Centre??


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## SevenFX (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Alien said:
			
		

> Announcement today. A $17.20 offer for shareholders valuing the company at $1.62b.
> 
> Happy days. Bought at $13.40 and bought a lot more at $9.15 when they reported a bad first half last year. Not a bad return I am sitting on.
> 
> Anyone else hold Flight Centre??




Very Nice Gap Up ALien, 

So are you holding or soldout, and if so drinks are you ...  :

High of 17.30 so far.


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## Alien (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I am planning on holding to see how this turns out. Usually the best practice these days with takeovers. With so many private equity groups all cashed up and still another possible bid from somebody like S8?? who knows. Either way it pays to hold on. 




			
				SevenFX said:
			
		

> Very Nice Gap Up ALien,
> 
> So are you holding or soldout, and if so drinks are you ...  :
> 
> High of 17.30 so far.


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## hardmoney (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Alien said:
			
		

> Anyone else hold Flight Centre??




One of the weekly long term trend following systems I use to trade my Super fund with got me into this stock about a month ago.

Volume and price breakouts mean something 


HM


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## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Alien said:
			
		

> Announcement today. A $17.20 offer for shareholders valuing the company at $1.62b.
> 
> Happy days. Bought at $13.40 and bought a lot more at $9.15 when they reported a bad first half last year. Not a bad return I am sitting on.
> 
> Anyone else hold Flight Centre??




Is FLT a good company? Because it has been doing badly in the past 2 yrs or so.

thx

MS


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## Alien (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I would say that FLT has been an excellent success story over the long term. Is the company as good today as it once was? Well the majority shareholders obviously think that the company represents excellent value and that this value can be exctracted over time. 

FLT has excellent market share and has been hit by record oil prices and by airline companies adding oil surcharges onto flights. 

This has caused FLT to be oversold which made the company an excellent buy. 

The same happened with LEI & COH in the last few years. Fallen Angels can be great buys....

Alien



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> is FLT a good company? beacuse it has been doing badly in the past 2 yrs or so
> 
> thx
> 
> MS


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## binh25 (25 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Yup Bought it at 11.50 4 months ago. nice 50% profit 
Time to look for more bargain like FLT ... haven't spot any lately due to
market overheating 

I was arguing with some dude on here about FLT (+ve cash flow) vs their cash burning Travel.com or something like while FLT going in for a rough ride but I hold my horse and it paid off today


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## stevo (28 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Why is FLT trading at $16.70 when the offer price is $17 cash plus 20 cents dividend? Should we all leverage into FLT and make the 30 cents a share? Something doesn't make sense - what am I not understanding.

"One of the weekly long term trend following systems I use to trade my Super fund with got me into this stock about a month ago."

Exactly the same thing happened to me - I bought 5 weeks ago for my super fund.

Stevo


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## ila (28 October 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hi All
Is it the offer price of $17.20 that caused the share to open at that price or was it a lot of buy orders the previous day before close? I am a newbie here - your comments are appreciated.


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## Sir Burr (24 November 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Like Stevo mentioned, can anyone explain why it can be bought today at around $16.80 yet early next year we can get $17.20 for it.

Maybe there is a risk it could fall through?

SB


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## Sainter (24 November 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

The time cost of money makes this about fair value atm. Rem your money will be tied up for 3 or 4 months before you are paid out. No counter bid is at all likely given the current ownership of the shares.
Cheers!


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## Sir Burr (25 November 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



			
				Sainter said:
			
		

> The time cost of money makes this about fair value atm. Rem your money will be tied up for 3 or 4 months before you are paid out. No counter bid is at all likely given the current ownership of the shares.
> Cheers!




Thanks Sainter. Guess the price may creep up during the next months then.


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## pacer (25 November 2006)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

There are gonna be takovers galore in the flight industry and all SP's should rise as a result....Qantas is only the beginning.....see you on the high side lads!.......


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## ROE (26 June 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

What are people view on the renew PEP join ventures with FLT?
I have a massive profit from this baby since low day buying in around 10-11 bucks a year ago.

Will the profit run continue? I don't like this new venture too much debt into the picture.. I'm a conservative and don't like too much debt in any business.


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## Rainmaker2000 (14 September 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Has anyone got any idea what is going on at FLT?.....it went up a clean dollar yesterday and is now up 5$ since the much expected profit and accounts release.......me thinks, PEP is may be knocking on the door again, but as proud owner below 10$, I'm getting a little itchy at these prices.......at a PE of about 20 its not historically overvalued however, and there are significant headwinds behind the whole industry.....PEP would have to offer about 25$ to get back into the game again....its been an interested flight with flt..hehe


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## ROE (14 September 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Has anyone got any idea what is going on at FLT?.....it went up a clean dollar yesterday and is now up 5$ since the much expected profit and accounts release.......me thinks, PEP is may be knocking on the door again, but as proud owner below 10$, I'm getting a little itchy at these prices.......at a PE of about 20 its not historically overvalued however, and there are significant headwinds behind the whole industry.....PEP would have to offer about 25$ to get back into the game again....its been an interested flight with flt..hehe




I think FLT is now fully value.. I sold my stake I got it at $11.50
so I'm happy with the profit and lock it in. 
I don't like the PEP arrangement anyway, it's way too leverage and load it up with too much debt.
I would have sold out earlier in the second offer if it was to go ahead.


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## Rainmaker2000 (14 September 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Thanks for your thoughts ROE.

I'm from the Phillip Fisher school of growth investing so it will be hard for me to let this baby go...companies like flt which on average growth at round 15% plus divs are hard to find...still, as you say we all have good uses for the cash...some of us have margin loans.....although the recent upwards performance of the stock is hard to justify holding, on a fundamental basis, the company is not at a ridiculous valuation......the X factor too is that as management and PEP was blatently lying to us over the first takeover bid which I voted against, I think NPAT this year will be up around 30% underlying instead of the 15% announced........it all adds up to an extraudinary company in a fully priced market....there are only about two stocks which I would outright buy at the moment, if I didn't already own them........so other than paying back debt, I'm not I'd probably just waste my money on Commander or something, which I will admit I bought a few around 1$..hehe


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## ROE (14 September 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Thanks for your thoughts ROE.
> 
> I'm from the Phillip Fisher school of growth investing so it will be hard for me to let this baby go...companies like flt which on average growth at round 15% plus divs are hard to find...still, as you say we all have good uses for the cash...some of us have margin loans.....although the recent upwards performance of the stock is hard to justify holding, on a fundamental basis, the company is not at a ridiculous valuation......the X factor too is that as management and PEP was blatently lying to us over the first takeover bid which I voted against, I think NPAT this year will be up around 30% underlying instead of the 15% announced........it all adds up to an extraudinary company in a fully priced market....there are only about two stocks which I would outright buy at the moment, if I didn't already own them........so other than paying back debt, I'm not I'd probably just waste my money on Commander or something, which I will admit I bought a few around 1$..hehe




Another one you should look at is IBT and SSM  I'm putting my FLT money toward them 100% and will load up more if there is a market correction in October  when sub-prime crunch time hit the US market.
I like to discover shares before institution get into the action and these 2 baby fits the bill.

Look IBT number and you be impress by its ROE and other figures.
I already own SSM when it was $1.00 but I will get them some more and more and more until such time I think there it's fully price.

and for better or worse I got 30,000 CDR shares varies from 48 cents to 69 cents..worse case for this baby I believe
it get bought out before it go belly up due to its $1 billion revenue stream.

anyway do your own research this is not a recommendation but what I believe in and buying.

PS: Phil Fisher theory is nice but rarely work in practice, no one can hold on a shares for ever due to the nature of the
economic condition and sentiments around it. I take the ideas and modified it .. I buy and hold when it still undervalue
and let go when it reach full potential and look for something else and come back to it if it go through a rough time
and revalue and see if it's worth get into the action.


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## Rainmaker2000 (14 September 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Good to see someone who puts a lot of thought into their investing....in the market, I see a lot of information and many people 'listening' to information but its rare that people take theories, cut them up, apply them when appropriate and not....only about 3% of market players actually analyse I think...

Most of my investing would be 'value investing', something similar to you describe...picking something up when out of fashion, and then waiting for it to realise value.....Fisher is critical of this 'colourful' practice..hehe...The bedrock of my portfolio however are the growth stocks just because nothing in the capitalist system can rival growth over time......so much so that I quit my public service job and am establishing retail concept......only because if you have one store from nothing, that's growth....one to 10 stores, theoretically a '10 bagger', 10- 100 stores, that's it again.....I like growth businesses, smaller the better.

With regard to CDR, I think the 'worries' are overdone but then again many people are trading with a lot more insight than I.....I'm trying to stay away from businesses like SSM cause it 'outside my field of expertise', the financials like good however....as for IBT, its an interesting proposition, the 'education' businesses......I had a look at Tribeca when it was bout 20cents but did not buy.....IBT is not cheap but looks to be performing well and growing....

I think you hit the nail on the head.......I'm waiting for people to have a panic....the last one was pretty dramatic but then people seemed to disregard the fundamentals of sub prime as the market has bounced back....the next panic could be substantial expecially if its triggered by question marks over the mining boom...


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## Rainmaker2000 (16 October 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Don't want to give myself a wrap boys BUT I don't get many chances so....check my post on 14 September saying management was holding out on us projecting 15% growth when 30% would be more accurate.................now check out FLT's release today.....'First half NPAT will now be 30% higher than pcp'........What a *ucking coincidence........I can't wait to turn up to the AGM which thankfully is a train ride away........in the same press release today they then go on to caution for the rest of the year.......this sh** won't work since the share price has already run away from the PEP deal......and you would think management would actually be happy about that


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## ROE (17 October 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

RainMaker2000 are you still hold on this stock? Personally I think FLT is a great stock .. you see it just in about every place you go in Australia with people queuing up for service  

But I'm uncomfortable with the current price, maybe when it get cheaper I come back in


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (17 October 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Yeah, I'm still holding but I understand the view that its overvalued, after all, its only a just over a year ago the thing was trading under $10....I took a few shares at 18$ off the table just before the big profit result....bad timing..hehehe......I don't think its overvalued for what it is..its an iconic brand...a cashflow machine....a business run by the same people who founded it and released it at 95 cents just a decadish ago.......its on a forward P/E of about 18 and there look like significant industry headwinds.......plus there are a few growth X factors at play I think.........1)I think MFS with its purchase of Harvey World Travel and everything else has consolidated the industry and at the same time created a weak competitor for FLT (2) I think FLT management is getting better at what they do and are bored with mediocrity......they are exploring a few more diverse growth avenues and 'startups' which I'm a massive fan off......what I hate is companies making big acquisitions and issuing shares.......these guys are the opposite....they are happy to use cash and debt to start small and establish potential goldmines.......Check out the latest analyst presentation when they talk about a) dominating business travel as well b) buying and selling commercial real estate c)using their business model for alternative retail......its possible that their growth is only just beginning and shareholders can benefit from their silky skills knowing that any startup loses will be absorbed almost without a hitch by the FLT machine


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (13 November 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

ROE, do you still own some of these puppies..hehe...looks like the market is giving another chance to buy on a slight decline........I was planning to sell most holdings at round $30 but then the US acquisition came............I must say it is one of the most incredible acquisitions I've ever seen and shows how bloody astute these guys are.......1) They bought a private company still run by mom and pop 2)The company is effectively an uncanny clone of FLT, with it being the largest wholly owned 'bricks and mortar' travel agent in US but only the 10th largest agent in US 3) They paid an incredibly cheap price 6.6 Ebita 4)  This company and its brand looks like it pioneered the leisure industry, FLT now get to rebrand all its US loss making stores Liberty 5) Liberty is an offline provider so they have not even started to leverage the brand on the internet which FLT has much expertise with by successfully transition from bricks and mortar to internet in Australia.

It's an incredible buy and means that realistically FLT should be valued at far more than 20 times earnings for this year.  I've had to rethink my equity rebalancing as this baby is worth a lot more than its current price still!


----------



## ROE (14 November 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Rainmaker I'm not touching FLT at this price  I think the share price move way ahead of itself, plus FLT ROE has been diminishing from the early years so they get bigger but they don't offer the same Return on equity.. Their ROE number still good just not at the current share price


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (14 November 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I understand your viewpoint...it certainly is not the same company as the early years but then it pays higher dividends as an offset to fantastic growth.....I expect it to earn about $1.40 this year which on a 20X earnings is $28....then there is the major US acquistion which they've search for for about 5 years....I think there is some value but am not that confident about the share price in the near term since it certainly ran hard


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (28 November 2007)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hey ROE, I took you advice....hehe...well and that really uneasy feeling in my gut and cashed the vast majority of my FLT booty.......the share price performance in last 4 months has been just ridiculous and whilst I value it at more say, next financial year, the price has gone past the fundamentals, I got weak and sold most of it..........it's been going up $1 a day this week to $29.....I've got a margin loan, the cost of debt is rising.....it just does not make sense to have stocks at such valuations........Since buying June last year, FLT has been my best investment ever and its time to repay the bankers who made it possible


----------



## neinstein (5 June 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I'm looking at the market depth for this stock and I'm curious about it, there are heaps of very small parcels being traded. Only quantities in the 10s, even a single share and a 6 share parcel. All these seem to be bringing the price up from -3% an hour ago to now -0.5% towards the end of the day. What sort of activity would this be?


----------



## Jochi (5 June 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

@ neinstein

This could be some instis trying to gap up the price by buying small parcels at increasing prices with little or no selling resistance.

This is usually done to tempt people into buying into shares at high prices.

(Just my opinion, and DYOR)


----------



## ROE (5 June 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Damn havent look this stock for a while  tank from $30 to $18 
it will tank further with airline fuel sky rocket and less and less people travel 
then it's my turn to buy back in 

Rainmaker aren't you glad you go out in their high 20's


----------



## oldblue (5 June 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Jochi said:


> @ neinstein
> 
> This could be some instis trying to gap up the price by buying small parcels at increasing prices with little or no selling resistance.
> 
> ...




Yes, that's a possible explanation.
Another reason often given for this phenomenon is " computer generated trading" - small transactions with the aim of buying or selling a parcel at an average price ( for the day or some other period).
I prefer your explanation !


----------



## ROE (21 November 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hello long time no see 
I'm back in the game this week for this stock having sold out last year


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (22 November 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

hehe, Back in the game ROE....

I've been edging my way back into the stock since the $16 and just can't believe the luck in picking it up at todays price......just incredible.....what's the PE on probably a declining year 5 X.....just amazing.

You'll be thanking yourself you picked this baby up......it will probably pay for itself in dividends in about 5 years...

I'm still enthused about the growth prospects......I think the Liberty acquistion will be the best thing ever for FLT but will take time......then there is the growth in business travel......and then there's the bike shops and opportunistic property forays......

Go the rational market theory!!


----------



## ROE (24 November 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> hehe, Back in the game ROE....
> 
> I've been edging my way back into the stock since the $16 and just can't believe the luck in picking it up at todays price......just incredible.....what's the PE on probably a declining year 5 X.....just amazing.
> 
> ...




Yeah worse case scenario if earning drop by 30% stock still a healthy PE of 8-9 and if it's not well the stock pay for itself in 5 years


----------



## rryall (3 December 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hello all - I am new to the stock market in the last 6 months. I am curious about peoples opion on this stock. Low debt and market lead. I bought in today at $8.36, looking long term 5+ years.


----------



## ROE (4 December 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



rryall said:


> Hello all - I am new to the stock market in the last 6 months. I am curious about peoples opion on this stock. Low debt and market lead. I bought in today at $8.36, looking long term 5+ years.




I come and go with this stock sell out in the Bull buy back in the bear.. FLT has to do very bad for it to hit below $8 mark.
other travel agencies will go before FLT goes..so they could potentially takes up more market share by the time the next bull return..In time like these only the strong survive and the weak get wiped out.


----------



## prawn_86 (17 December 2008)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Missed picking these up under $9 . 

Resistance at $10, but is it a head and shoulders forming over the last few days? Any TA much appreciated.


----------



## gav (2 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

*Analysts says Flight Centre could soar*

The Daily Telegraph

January 02, 2009 04:01am

Opportunity ... analysts say Flight Centre will offer good value as market conditions improve.

AUSTRALIA'S shares were punished in 2008, the All Ordinaries index hammered 43 per cent, so it'll take a brave investor to confidently pick stocks to buy right now.

But analysts say 2009 will offer a "once in a lifetime" chance to buy quality stocks as market conditions will improve and asset prices rise once again.

Investors wanting to steer a path through the capital market storm must aim for a balanced portfolio and avoid schemes sounding too good to be true.

Analysts at the The Intelligent Investor - which reveres people like former economist Benjamin Graham and his well-known disciple Warren Buffett - nominated Flight Centre, Harvey Norman, Platinum Asset Management, JB Hi-Fi and litigation funder IMF among their favourite stocks to buy in 2009.

Intelligent Investor's James Greenhalgh said Flight Centre was a "classic growth company with the potential to expand in ... corporate travel".

"To me Flight Centre looks to be one of the cheapest blue chips around."

Seven of eight Intelligent Investor analysts, including veteran picker Greg Hoffman, rated FLT a buy.

Despite many regretting not selling at $32, it is seen as good buying near $7.30. FLT closed at $7.80 on Wednesday.

"Top of my shopping list at the moment is (FLT). I've been absolutely astonished by this stock's movements over the past few years," analyst James Carlisle said. "After tripling in the space of two years, we are now roughly back to where we started, yet the long-term value ... has hardly changed at all."


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

That article must be the dodgiest piece of journalism ever.........but cause it turned up on news.com front page....the stock jumped a clean $1...

For a start, "AUSTRALIA'S shares were punished in 2008, the All Ordinaries index hammered 43 per cent, so it'll take a brave investor to confidently pick stocks to buy right now."

Is it only brave investors who like buying stocks at a 43% discount to last year.......in FLT's case, much more discount.........FLT could easily afford $1 in dividends from operating cashflow.......what the hell is brave about buying that at this price?

Those folks at Intelligent Investor are not really stock analysts which is a term more used for people who work in brokerage houses.....this is important distinction since these guys still liked FLT at $30 whereas......they just love the stock..hardly news

Despite the author's naivity, Benjamin Graham was not an economist.....what an insult.......since he taught Buffett, that would make Buffett close to being an economist.......what a slur on his reputation.

The article, with its many words, actually gives no intelligence whatsoever...

How about......"Flight Centre will offer good value as market conditions improve"......what a joke......the whole point is that the value is there now just like at $32, which is what the story's "source" says

The author gives actually no insight was to why the stock is cheap...no numbers...no growth avenues.........just plain fluff affecting 1000's of ordinary people's investment values


----------



## prawn_86 (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I have to agree with you Rainmaker, it was a terrible article.

Even worse so for me as i was/am waiting for an entry below $8  and then this drivvle comes out forcing the masses to buy in. I wonder what proportion of the buyers yesterday are just retail investors who read the article?

It will be interesting to see what it does from here actually. Wilkl the TA people pick it up and it go for a bit more of a run, or will it slowly drift dwon again cause its not front page news (not that there was any 'news')


----------



## oldblue (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Any article quoting the Intelligent Investor's picks should carry a prominent warning regarding that publication's record in 2008, a year in which they repeatedly called "Buy" on a variety of stocks stuck in confirmed downtrends: Timbercorp, Infomedia, PTM ( all the way down from its post-float high!), MOC, just to mention those that immediately come to mind.


----------



## gav (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> I have to agree with you Rainmaker, it was a terrible article.
> 
> Even worse so for me as i was/am waiting for an *entry below $8*  and then this drivvle comes out forcing the masses to buy in. I wonder what proportion of the buyers yesterday are just retail investors who read the article?
> 
> It will be interesting to see what it does from here actually. Wilkl the TA people pick it up and it go for a bit more of a run, or will it slowly drift dwon again cause its not front page news (not that there was any 'news')




I posted the article because it was in mainstream media, didnt mean to offend anyone with its authenticity.

Prawn, why are you waiting for an "entry below $8"?  You stated just 2 wks ago that you "missed picking these up under $9" with a  beside it.

What has changed in the last 2 weeks?


----------



## prawn_86 (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



gav said:


> I posted the article because it was in mainstream media, didnt mean to offend anyone with its authenticity.
> 
> Prawn, why are you waiting for an "entry below $8"?  You stated just 2 wks ago that you "missed picking these up under $9" with a  beside it.
> 
> What has changed in the last 2 weeks?




No offence taken at the posting, just at the article itself 

Nothing has changed in the last couple weeks, im just being cautious as i slowly drip feed some money into the market. I think buying at these levels is fine for me with 5+ year view however that doesnt mean i cant try and get an even better entry, as im still a bit cautious of the whole macro economy


----------



## ROE (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Damn those articles stuff up my purchase.. I'm slowly accumulating FLT a thousand shares at a time every time it 
goes below $8 ...don't worry it no doubt sunk below $8 again sometimes in 2009 when things are set to get much worse.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (3 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

The article didn't offend......in fact is pretty relevant to showing why the stock jumped more than 10%...I just wanted to rant about one of my pet gripes that quality financial press pretty much comes from no where but the AFR.......maybe Business Spectator

The article theoretically put 1000's of hypothetical dollars into many pockets on this forum......but I get the impression many more want the SP to tank even further to suck up more honey.......hehehe......ROE, I sure wish I was working in 1000 share lots at this time.........In what has been a brutal last year at times, I'm wearing many bruises but have made many good plays too......I am weary and am allocating capital more carefully these days........hehe

For those wanting more SP weakness, my experience with situations like this is that the SP will give back the gain (and more) in the next one or two trading days.......FLT earnings are in decline this year so the SP should not run off too soon...


----------



## captluthra (20 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hi all, what do we make of the hammering FLT has been taking for the past few days. 

Do we see any silver lining to this dark cloud.


----------



## nunthewiser (20 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Entered this stock today as a TRADE only .nice low % loss on MY stoploss point.....go FLT for all the rest of yas


----------



## prawn_86 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hitting new 5 year lows. How much further can it fall? Perpetual are still buying up fairly heavily, and a vast % is held by management and insto's


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Hitting new 5 year lows. How much further can it fall? Perpetual are still buying up fairly heavily, and a vast % is held by management and insto's



Travel industry is going into a tailspin at the moment. The next 12 months will see a lot of people shaken out, but you'd expect FLT to be the one picking up the pieces. Maybe. 

Yielding 15% on a pe of 5. 

Some pain in earnings factored in to the current price.


----------



## Gundini (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Getting closer to 10 year lows!

Not alot going for it on the current climate.

Figures are very solid and only a small amount of debt.

I got caught in this one when the earnings downgrade came through recently and triggered my buy. Holding at an increasing loss for now.

Tempted to average down, but it may get cheaper yet..


----------



## prawn_86 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



kennas said:


> Travel industry is going into a tailspin at the moment. The next 12 months will see a lot of people shaken out, but you'd expect FLT to be the one picking up the pieces. Maybe.
> 
> Yielding 15% on a pe of 5.
> 
> Some pain in earnings factored in to the current price.




Yeh, i really really like these guys as a long term investment, but havn't bought yet, due to lack of funds, and i just dont know how much further it can/will fall.

Even if earnings fall 30% then thats still a 10% yeild at current prices. And i agree that some earnings falls have already been factored in.

In the latest annual report it states cash and cash equivilants at $740 million. Current MC is approx $690 mill, so already trading below cash value. 

They state total equity as $604 million, so perhaps that figure will provide a floor? Or perhaps people will continue to panic, but they will still make a profit of some sort this year.

Crazy times indeed....


----------



## ROE (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

soon it be one of my big holding...i gone through their books many times over pass week and if I got this wrong I'm no longer fit to manage my own money...but **** do happen even at best of time  so who know.

The incredible +ve cash flow this baby generate it's scary..based on current market cap

It wipe everyone out before it do any damage to FLT and they will increase market shares once thing start to gather pace.

I'm average down till i'm out of cash then If it continue down I off load my other holding to buy more


----------



## nunthewiser (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

As previouly posted .... a bewt of a low % loss on stoploss points at these levels and yes i have looked at its numbers also but not in it for investment .trade only


----------



## ROE (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



captluthra said:


> Hi all, what do we make of the hammering FLT has been taking for the past few days.
> 
> Do we see any silver lining to this dark cloud.




Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when other are greedy  

after you done your research of course


----------



## prawn_86 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



nunthewiser said:


> As previouly posted .... a bewt of a low % loss on stoploss points at these levels and yes i have looked at its numbers also but not in it for investment .trade only




So are you long or short for your trade nun?

If you are long i assume you are close to being stopped out as you entered the trade yesterday?


----------



## nunthewiser (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> So are you long or short for your trade nun?
> 
> If you are long i assume you are close to being stopped out as you entered the trade yesterday?




Long m8 and yes it came close to stop out point earlier in day but has not as yet taken me out ....... hey if it hits stop so be it .......... just pointing out a trade with a low % loss factor on entry if trade goes wrong

ps

LOL as typing this it is back at its lows 

blessem....bleeding markets 

lol


----------



## prawn_86 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



nunthewiser said:


> Long m8 and yes it came close to stop out point earlier in day but has not as yet taken me out ....... hey if it hits stop so be it .......... just pointing out a trade with a low % loss factor on entry if trade goes wrong
> 
> ps
> 
> ...




LOL. I was just wondering thats all. Im not really a short term trader so i dunno how you guys can pick those sorta things often enough to turn a profit :


----------



## nunthewiser (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> LOL. I was just wondering thats all. Im not really a short term trader so i dunno how you guys can pick those sorta things often enough to turn a profit :




Often trades support lines , prefer entrys with a nice low% loss on definative previous supports ..... i do ok ..... this is NOT the only methods i use , scan for breakouts/abnormal vols /supports/etc 

plenty ways to make a quid ( or lose one )  


still tho i wouldnt suggest any one follow my methods, was merely pointing out one of them on this trade 


bleedin market


----------



## ROE (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



nunthewiser said:


> bleedin market




Another 1000 shares at $6.80 keep bleedin 
got a few more average to go yet...
Bring it on

How low can this baby go ...


----------



## Gundini (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> Another 1000 shares at $6.80 keep bleedin
> got a few more average to go yet...
> Bring it on
> 
> How low can this baby go ...




Maybe $5 but I will get my final parcel before that.

I think they have been way oversold, and they owe me $7.87


----------



## prawn_86 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> Another 1000 shares at $6.80 keep bleedin
> got a few more average to go yet...
> Bring it on
> 
> How low can this baby go ...




Can you spare me 500 shares ROE? 



Gundini said:


> There is so much work for them to do, and with Govt. spending on infrustructure, this stock seems very fair value.




How will infrastructure spending help them? Domestic travel?


----------



## ROE (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Can you spare me 500 shares ROE?
> 
> 
> 
> How will infrastructure spending help them? Domestic travel?




No idea but looking at FLT books unless they have a massive slow down in travel, their cash flow look very very healthy.

and cash flow dont lies ..... you can lies about assets and valuation but cash flow tell the truth about the state of a company.


----------



## ROE (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Can you spare me 500 shares ROE?




Yeah at a rate of return of 6% PA interest 
I'm in for a long hall ..I'm still very young I got 30-40 years to go this is my retirement dividend stream.


----------



## ROE (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Gundini said:


> Maybe $5 but I will get my final parcel before that.
> 
> I think they have been way oversold, and they owe me $7.87




Yeah hit $5 and I buy another 5000 shares and speed up my average down journey and lock stock and come back in 30 years.


----------



## nomore4s (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

This stock is also on my income portfolio watchlist but I want to see at least some sort of support come in before I buy, getting an itchy trigger finger though


----------



## oldblue (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



nomore4s said:


> This stock is also on my income portfolio watchlist but I want to see at least some sort of support come in before I buy, getting an itchy trigger finger though




That's my stance on this one too.

Cash flow doesn't lie - but that's last year's history. It's this year's business that counts now.


----------



## prawn_86 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



oldblue said:


> That's my stance on this one too.
> 
> Cash flow doesn't lie - but that's last year's history. It's this year's business that counts now.




Totally agree, but even a 30% cut in dividend is still 10% yield.

Even a 50% cut in both earnings and dividend would only put the PE at 10 and the div at 7%, so methinks a lot has already been factored in.

I know someone that works in a FLT store and they are still as busy as ever. The only shift they have noticed is towards more domestic travel. Im trying to source some figures from them for that specific store. IE - sales volums now compared to last yr, int v domestic etc etc i'll post them here if i can get them


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

The way FLT is falling, you would think the global economy was a complete basket case 6 months from now......just when you think the last wave has come, another wave of negative data comes out of US.......

The funny thing about FLT is that current earnings don't even take into account the value of Liberty in US which they are taking turnaround losses on.....Liberty's still got to be worth a pretty penny and I'd stake a lot of money on FLT making Liberty a major player...and quickly....Management pedigree is just too good.....

I'm going to again do a stock take and recycle some capital from some great shares who by luck have gone up in last few months to buy some of these misunderstood puppies who people obviously think are tied to the global meltdown a little too closely........go FLT, you little cash flow machine


----------



## resourceboom (21 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hey prawn, that little bit of scuttlebutt would be great if you could post it.
I'm looking at buying in to this for solid income, but will probably wait a while yet.


----------



## ROE (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I email FLT investor relation yesterday regards two things I need clarification in the annual report..nothing concerning just minor queries and if I got the right answer that re-enforce my conviction for this stock

1. Their investment portfolio sit at a couple hundred mil
2. TTV and the way they calculate commission.


----------



## wonderrman (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

This one I think is really the stand out in terms of value at the moment. Baby's truly been thrown out with the bath water here. At $7 I would be loading my portfolio up with it, have no idea where it is going from a chart stand point.

You've got to be prepared over the next year or two to  see no revenue growth. They should just come out of the period stronger. Fantastic opportunity to acquire assets and further consolidate the industry. 

Probably one of the cleanest balance sheets going around as well. Sweet yield and hopefully some great capital growth to come over the next 10 years. 

This one really is a no brainer!


----------



## gohawks (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Mmmmm grabbed some of these today to even out my average buy price. Perhaps not the greatest buy ever but I just couldn't resist at under $7!


----------



## prawn_86 (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I think any proce under $8 meets my long term hold criteria. I just dont have any spare cash, which turns out to be a blessing so far, as its just kept falling.

Im wary now, might have to wait for a higher low before i do buy...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> I think any proce under $8 meets my long term hold criteria. I just dont have any spare cash, which turns out to be a blessing so far, as its just kept falling.
> 
> Im wary now, might have to wait for a higher low before i do buy...



It could form a big base before any substantial continued rise eventuates. But I emphasise could not will. The bearishness on the chart is not compelling for any long trades. Each day seems to confirm the bearishness. As there is no substantial support I'll wait and watch.

*Not advice and do your own research and learn your own method. I am commonly wrong. *


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

ROE, my read of their last annual report is they actually have a net debt, a larger one than they've had for a while.........but still tiny compared to most companies going around..........this debt is net of the investment portfolio....but not of the money for travel which they hold on trust and collect interest

Keep in mind, their latest downgrade included losses on equity investments which they inherited from the Liberty acquisition.........I'm still yet to understand the logic of the 'mum and pop' owners of liberty investing surplus cash in the stock market, as the growth avenues for Liberty appear large....for example, my understanding is that they weren't even on the internet yet!!

In fact, I'm yet to understand any of us investing in the stock market in the last year.......but I did, I do and will keep doing cause it makes a lot of sense ROE wise


----------



## wonderrman (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



> ROE, my read of their last annual report is they actually have a net debt, a larger one than they've had for a while.........but still tiny compared to most companies going around...




Yes they do but it is not significant compared to cash. Current borrowings are $100m ('07: 48m) and long term borrowings of $60m ('07: $27m).


----------



## sammy84 (22 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Gotta agree with Snake. No point buying this stock till it forms some sort of base, otherwise its just catching falling daggers


----------



## ROE (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> ROE, my read of their last annual report is they actually have a net debt, a larger one than they've had for a while.........but still tiny compared to most companies going around..........this debt is net of the investment portfolio....but not of the money for travel which they hold on trust and collect interest
> 
> Keep in mind, their latest downgrade included losses on equity investments which they inherited from the Liberty acquisition.........I'm still yet to understand the logic of the 'mum and pop' owners of liberty investing surplus cash in the stock market, as the growth avenues for Liberty appear large....for example, my understanding is that they weren't even on the internet yet!!
> 
> In fact, I'm yet to understand any of us investing in the stock market in the last year.......but I did, I do and will keep doing cause it makes a lot of sense ROE wise




Their debt level doesn't concern me at all..they can get it out of the way with less than 1 year cash flow, that is rare species 

I remember the day of Pepsi and KFC and when they spin it off with a massive amount of debt but their cash flow was so tremendous they got the debt all lock stock and out of the way in a few years...

FLT debt is pocket change and knowing Graham Turner he's a smart guy, he understand what burden of debt can do to you.


----------



## ROE (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> ROE, my read of their last annual report is they actually have a net debt, a larger one than they've had for a while.........but still tiny compared to most companies going around..........this debt is net of the investment portfolio....but not of the money for travel which they hold on trust and collect interest
> 
> Keep in mind, their latest downgrade included losses on equity investments which they inherited from the Liberty acquisition.........I'm still yet to understand the logic of the 'mum and pop' owners of liberty investing surplus cash in the stock market, as the growth avenues for Liberty appear large....for example, my understanding is that they weren't even on the internet yet!!
> 
> In fact, I'm yet to understand any of us investing in the stock market in the last year.......but I did, I do and will keep doing cause it makes a lot of sense ROE wise




Actually I do put my surplus cash in the stock market
you diversify your income stream and your investment.

as long as you allocate the capital sensibly you can becomes wealthy real fast...compounding is the 8th wonder .. my snowball has started

Warren Buffett is the master of doing that ... income stream from one business he invest in other business that generate similar return or better.

You don't have to invest in the same place where you earn your money


----------



## ROE (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



sammy84 said:


> Gotta agree with Snake. No point buying this stock till it forms some sort of base, otherwise its just catching falling daggers




Unless you are a trader, most people dont look intraday or charts or don't have the mean and the time in the day to do it...I'm an investor and I like business it's not just a piece of paper to me it's something I try to understand and see the inner working of a business.

If the stock meet my price then I buy and I dont worry it about it for a while until I suspect it trading above what it can sustain then I sell out..mean while I collect dividends and as long as the company in good shape I hang on to it.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Yeah, ROE, debt is certainly no concern.......just wanted to make the point they have debt cause they have traditionally been in cash surplus even disregarding the cash held on trust for travellers........

I was actually having a dig about why any of us put up with the stockmarket last year..........hehe, I still love the market but gees it keeps on fighting me (and any other investor with more than two shares).......


----------



## prawn_86 (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hey all,

Got some stats from that store i was talking about. Obviously i want to protect my 'source' so all i'll say is that the store is located in the CBD.

Surprised me actually to see that up to Sep 2008, out of the last 27 months data, only 7 of them actually turned a profit 

That store had a big loss in 2007FY and a very slight profit in 2008FY and are negative up to Sep of this FY.

Obviously one store is not a representative sample but it still surprised me. Perhaps it comes down to the amount of competition and other FL stores around so quite a bit of cannibilisation

EDIT - I'll post a few more details when the weekend is over


----------



## nomore4s (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Could go some way to explaining the current share price?

Not much support appearing volume wise yet either.


----------



## ROE (23 January 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Hey all,
> 
> Got some stats from that store i was talking about. Obviously i want to protect my 'source' so all i'll say is that the store is located in the CBD.
> 
> ...




I know some stores do not make money and that is fair enough and it sometimes an advantage for FLT as that increase their TTV and once you increase TTV your commission is increase so you have a leverage field that other players cant play because they are much smaller...

I be interest in Dec 2008 and 1st half 2009 trading update...if this fall in line with my expectation I got nothing to fear.

Where I'm there are 4 travels stores close each other, 1 FLT store, the other Student Flight, every single time I walk pass FLT and Student Flight out number them in customers every time...you got people line up at FLT and the other guys just got 1 or 2 customers in there...

I also like FLT mentality, they expand and compete aggressively in down turn where their rival doesn't and let FLT run the show. Very similar model to Woolworth, it paid off for FLT in the past and so did WOW I cant see them slow down this time around.

http://www.asiatraveltips.com/news09/211-FlightCentre.shtml


----------



## persistentone (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I'm new to Flight Centre and want to evaluate 10 years of financials.  I was introduced to them by Intelligent Investor which just loves the company.   When I go to the Flight Centre web site, I don't see any link for Inventors!  How can that be?   Can someone direct me to the investor's page there and tell me if anyone maintains a complete tabular 10 year set of financials and ratios?

I did find some financials at Reuters but they look corrupted.   Gross sales are showing as negative.

On the Reuters' version of the balance sheet I noticed Accounts Payable is three times Accounts Receivable.   It looks like one way FLT is keeping a high cash balance is by starving its suppliers.


----------



## skc (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> I'm new to Flight Centre and want to evaluate 10 years of financials.  I was introduced to them by Intelligent Investor which just loves the company.   When I go to the Flight Centre web site, I don't see any link for Inventors!  How can that be?   Can someone direct me to the investor's page there and tell me if anyone maintains a complete tabular 10 year set of financials and ratios?
> 
> I did find some financials at Reuters but they look corrupted.   Gross sales are showing as negative.
> 
> On the Reuters' version of the balance sheet I noticed Accounts Payable is three times Accounts Receivable.   It looks like one way FLT is keeping a high cash balance is by starving its suppliers.




Corporate site here http://www3.flightcentre.com.au/corporate/

10 year financials for flightcentres are quite meaningless IMO. Things have changed so much in travel booking during the past 10 years. The biggest issue with flightcentre is how much value is still in their bricks and mortar shop fronts. Does anyone under 35 still visit the stores? Do you really get better service at a cheaper price booking through them? Is their web platform any better than the other 200 that are out there? Those are questions I'd ask myself if I was researching this company.


----------



## persistentone (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Corporate site here http://www3.flightcentre.com.au/corporate/
> 
> 10 year financials for flightcentres are quite meaningless IMO. Things have changed so much in travel booking during the past 10 years. The biggest issue with flightcentre is how much value is still in their bricks and mortar shop fronts. Does anyone under 35 still visit the stores? Do you really get better service at a cheaper price booking through them? Is their web platform any better than the other 200 that are out there? Those are questions I'd ask myself if I was researching this company.




10 year financials are not meaningless.   At worst, they document the trend within an industry.   At best, they show the discipline of management to maintain return on equity, which good managements can do very well in many different business climates.

In any case, where can I find *ANY* financials?!


----------



## persistentone (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Corporate site here http://www3.flightcentre.com.au/corporate/
> 
> 10 year financials for flightcentres are quite meaningless IMO. Things have changed so much in travel booking during the past 10 years. The biggest issue with flightcentre is how much value is still in their bricks and mortar shop fronts. Does anyone under 35 still visit the stores? Do you really get better service at a cheaper price booking through them? Is their web platform any better than the other 200 that are out there? Those are questions I'd ask myself if I was researching this company.




P.S., I think a company that can combine both strong online and physical travel agent businesses gains synergies from both.   It's a unique value proposition that Expedia and Travelocity and Priceline do not compete with.   Do I think it is a strong growth business?   Maybe not.   Do I think they can *defend* a *niche* and continue to pour out positive cash flow for a long time?   Yes, I do.


----------



## prawn_86 (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I know two people directly who work with Flight Centre, so I like to think i know a bit about the day to day runnings, so i'll answer what questions i can  (my answers in blue.)



skc said:


> The biggest issue with flightcentre is how much value is still in their bricks and mortar shop fronts. This is an interesting point actually, and one i had not yet thought of. I know the majority of FLT stores are company owned/run but they do have a few franchises. Of the company ones, im not sure what they actually own and what they rent.
> 
> Does anyone under 35 still visit the stores? From what I have heard, yes. The demographic is quite spread out according to the people i know. Dont forget FLT also 100% owns Escape Travel and Student Flights. Its amusing cause people go to Escape Travel specifically to avoid Flight Centre, yet is the same company.
> 
> ...


----------



## oldblue (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT's looking increasingly attractive to me - but I want to see the SP consolidate before considering buying.


----------



## ROE (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Corporate site here http://www3.flightcentre.com.au/corporate/
> 
> 10 year financials for flightcentres are quite meaningless IMO. Things have changed so much in travel booking during the past 10 years. The biggest issue with flightcentre is how much value is still in their bricks and mortar shop fronts. Does anyone under 35 still visit the stores? Do you really get better service at a cheaper price booking through them? Is their web platform any better than the other 200 that are out there? Those are questions I'd ask myself if I was researching this company.





Past performance doesn't warrant the same performance in the future but it tell you a lot about a company and how they operate and the management discipline of capital allocation.

Without that information there is no way you can calculate intrinsic value of a stock because you got nothing to work on.

Toy R Us was making a lot of money in the dot.com boom but for some reason people buy etoys.com just because they think internet going to wipe out Toy R Us..with no track records for etoys and Toy R us with proven track records
smart people was buying toy r us.....dot.com come and goes etoys bankrupt and Toys r Us still making money until today.

People fear the same thing for FLT  .. History shall repeat


----------



## ROE (3 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> I'm new to Flight Centre and want to evaluate 10 years of financials.  I was introduced to them by Intelligent Investor which just loves the company.   When I go to the Flight Centre web site, I don't see any link for Inventors!  How can that be?   Can someone direct me to the investor's page there and tell me if anyone maintains a complete tabular 10 year set of financials and ratios?
> 
> I did find some financials at Reuters but they look corrupted.   Gross sales are showing as negative.
> 
> On the Reuters' version of the balance sheet I noticed Accounts Payable is three times Accounts Receivable.   It looks like one way FLT is keeping a high cash balance is by starving its suppliers.




There are a few tricks up FLT sleeves  and that is one of it. FLT get paid first, lock that cash in the bank, grab interest, then pay supplier at a later date...Free Cash 
and the bigger they are the more cash they make.

and the bigger they are the more discount they can command and in turn pass on to their customers and that will wiped out smaller operators in time like this.

Moat is  very important in business and these intangible even though doesn't seem to have any value on the book..look deeper and it one thing that guarding their income and protect their future.

Who can craw into WOW supermarket moat? who can dethrone Microsoft monopoly in PC operating system moat? Who can open competing with TAB outlet? Who can compete with Brambles in Pallet and CHEP?

In order for them to attack any of these moat...it's going to take someone a massive amount of capital to invest before they even turn a dime in profit
and that will keep them away  and make money for these wonderful companies


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (7 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I compare FLT to an ordinary retailer.......and that cash on trust is a massive advantage.......also, FLT has no inventory going stale on the shelves.....no goods to depreciate....it has so few nasty little secrets over the years like other retailers....it is a virtuous little story.....

I'm kind of sick of hearing about how bricks and mortar are irrelevant cause it's all about the internet now........EPS, ROE, that's what's relevent

Granted, no place probably offers better capital return ratios than an exclusively online business........but there is a limit to that market too........it's not just one endless dream.........

How long will it be for Webjet or whatif 'diversifies' by buying a depressed bricks and mortar enterprise........it will happen

I know, it's all about the internet these days.........well, why don't we all buy into the most visited travel website in Australia......is it Webject? Whatif?..............oh damn, it's a business called Flight Centre

I have not done it for a while but I wonder what the comparison is between wotif's market capitalisation and Flight Centre's....and then compare the profits.....I suspect I would feel discomfort just doing the math........why?........I'm thinking that the incredible global business that FLT has built over the last decades will count for a mere fraction as Mr Market adjudges 'two websites' to be around a similar value.......Well, yes, they are valuable websites but one is connected to an unrivalled global growth story


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (7 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I know, ROE, I know.......I got to get a life....

I just had to do the Wotif V FLT comparison.......it's like Mr Market is in some alternate universe at the moment....

Wotif, you know, the website business is capitalised at $656 million

How much is FLT centre...........$601 million............who can believe that???

So I don't need to cite Buffett to disprove the 'rational market hypothesis' any more........Why

So Wotif earned a respectable $34 million last year.....versus FLT a mere $143 million......and yes, Wotif is having a good year this year V FLT not good year...

.........I know, I know, wotif is a fast grower.......consider this......Both FLT's and Wotif's earnings practically doubled in last 2 years..........................Can you believe that WTF's return on capital and return on equity has apparently halved in that same period......imagine the capital needed when a mere website is not enough.......


----------



## ROE (7 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> I know, ROE, I know.......I got to get a life....
> 
> I just had to do the Wotif V FLT comparison.......it's like Mr Market is in some alternate universe at the moment....
> 
> ...




Yeah man book a holiday here via FLT of course 

http://www.news.com.au/travel/gallery/0,23607,5037328-5018708-3,00.html


----------



## So_Cynical (7 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> I know, ROE, I know.......I got to get a life....
> 
> I just had to do the Wotif V FLT comparison.......it's like Mr Market is in some alternate universe at the moment....
> 
> ...




Its like the Bricks and mortar, and all those employees are a liability...the FLT business 
burns alot of cash every week and WTF dont.


----------



## GumbyLearner (7 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I would rather invest in AMP than FLT in this kind of environment!  JMO!

People will increasingly travel at home with a weaker $Aussie.

Can't see this one increasing revenues/profits for a long while.

DYOR


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



So_Cynical said:


> Its like the Bricks and mortar, and all those employees are a liability...the FLT business
> burns alot of cash every week and WTF dont.




One of the good things, form an investors perspective, is the travel agents are paid about 50% on commission. So this means if FLTs earnings drop off, so does the amount the pay out in wages. This turns part of the wages into a variable rather than a fixed cost.


----------



## persistentone (9 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> Past performance doesn't warrant the same performance in the future but it tell you a lot about a company and how they operate and the management discipline of capital allocation.
> 
> Without that information there is no way you can calculate intrinsic value of a stock because you got nothing to work on.
> 
> ...




I definitely like the FLT story because of:

1) The growth

2) The financial discipline as shown by the consistent and high ROE

3) The enormous free cash flows 

4) The extremely good coverage they have based on that cash flow for the dividend

5) What appears to be a reasonable differentiation in travel of having both real and online presence, integrated.   This may or may not constitute a moat, but certainly it is a barrier for the smaller players.

Would anyone like to guess how low the FLT dividend will go in 2009 and 2010?   I'm assuming that we may step back to 2006-to-2007 levels on sales and earnings if this recession deepens and prolongs.   The coverage on the dividend is so good that management *could* choose to send a message by keeping the dividend higher as a percentage of free cash flow than it has been historically.


----------



## skc (9 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I think we are seeing slightly different views on the underlying industry versus the company's valuation.

On the industry prospect, it is logical to feel somewhat negative, given the expected fall in people booking for flights, the threat of lower cost on-line operators and changing customer behaviours. One of the key consideration for a business to have a great "moat" is whether there are high customer switching costs. In this case, switching cost (to a competitor or a substitute) is minimal as any customer can go to another provider and book their airfares.

On valuation however, the comparison with WTF is very insightful. Given the company's track record in management, growth, and financial position, is the market being too harsh on FLT's share price? I must admit that I will have flight centre over WTF on these grounds alone.

Perhaps a pairs trade Long FLT and Short WTF is in order?


----------



## persistentone (9 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I am a US based investor, and I have a few questions relative to Australian stocks:

1) Is there a good technical charting site that lets you build watchlists of stocks using their foreign exchange symbols (e.g., FLT.AX)?   Reuters allows this on its watch lists, but the Reuters is web site is so slow that it is unusable.   The Reuter's charting features also fall far short of the competitive standard for US-based investments like stockcharts.com.

2) Where can I get a breakdown of any stock options that trade for Flight Centre?   If we get a rise to 8 or so I would probably sell a covered call with the $7.5 strike.

Can someone tell me do Australian options trade differently than US options?   Are they European style expiration?


----------



## ROE (9 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> I think we are seeing slightly different views on the underlying industry versus the company's valuation.
> 
> On the industry prospect, it is logical to feel somewhat negative, given the expected fall in people booking for flights, the threat of lower cost on-line operators and changing customer behaviours. One of the key consideration for a business to have a great "moat" is whether there are high customer switching costs. In this case, switching cost (to a competitor or a substitute) is minimal as any customer can go to another provider and book their airfares.




Why would people want to switch if FLT guarantee to beat any price they find any where so their moat is their pricing model. 

Why the hell do I wan to shop at Coles when I know WOW will always give me cheaper price at the counter. 

People only switch if they can find cheaper stuff else where and FLT pricing model is better than that by beating any price you bring to their attention so it's in consumer interest to find cheapest price and bring it to FLT


----------



## So_Cynical (9 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> Why would people want to switch if FLT guarantee to beat any price they find any where so their moat is their pricing model.
> 
> Why the hell do I wan to shop at Coles when I know WOW will always give me cheaper price at the counter.
> 
> People only switch if they can find cheaper stuff else where and FLT pricing model is better than that by beating any price you bring to their attention so it's in consumer interest to find cheapest price and bring it to FLT




That's an old gimmick...and a good one, used often due to the fact that the vast 
majority of people wont chase it, and the marketing people know that.

Next time im booking a cheap ticket...ill take flight center up on the "beat any price 
deal" just as an exercise to see where the catch is.

So just thinking do flight center do e-tickets?...maybe that's the catch.


----------



## Nick453 (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



So_Cynical said:


> That's an old gimmick...and a good one, used often due to the fact that the vast
> majority of people wont chase it, and the marketing people know that.
> 
> Next time im booking a cheap ticket...ill take flight center up on the "beat any price
> ...





There is no catch!!! ... they will beat the price for you if they still make profit on the ticket  ..... or they will refuse to match or beat the price if they don't make money on the ticket.  its very simple ..... just an old marketing gimmick 


I have tested their so called "LOW PRICE PROMISE" policy twice, and in both case... they refuse to beat or even match the price for me. 1st time it was a flight from Sydney to Bangkok, British Airway's website had special on for $950 including taxes, and FLT gave me $1150 for the same flight, when i mention the $950 from BA's website they basically refuse to beat or match the BA's price, and she told me to book my flight via BA's website because it will be cheaper  ..... 2nd time it was a flight from Sydney to Europe where the price difference was $300,  it took them 2 weeks to come back to me and told me that they can not beat the price and they were happy to refund my deposit!!

Don't think for a minute that you are walking to FLT and you are getting the best price ..... you will need to do your homework before going to FLT ..... and in my experience i find their prices are not competitive ..... there are better places to book your ticket!!


----------



## So_Cynical (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

http://www.flightcentre.com.au/footer/misc/pages/links/low-price-promise
_
What prices will Flight Centre beat?

Flight Centre will beat any Domestic and International airfare and land quote that can be booked through:

    * Other travel agents
    * Airlines
    * Internet (Australian registered websites only)
    * Tour operators 

Will Flight Centre accept a verbal quote?

No, you will be required to provide a written quote, that is currently available in the market place.
How much will Flight Centre beat other quotes by?

We will beat our competitors quotes by the following:

    * we beat international airfares and all packages *by $20* 
    * We beat domestic and trans-Tasman fares *by $5* _

As if u would bother for 5 or 20 bucks.


----------



## prawn_86 (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Nick - How long ago did you try and get those price beats? As i said before, i know two people who work as a travel agents for FLT, and they HAVE TO beat a quote brought to them, otherwise they can lose their job, as its a flight centre policy, but is monitored by the ACCC. You could probably go to the ACCC with your complaint. Its a legal requirement that they beat the price, due to the fact that they advertise it (even if it means FLT losing money).

SC - The stores i know will beat domestic flights by $20 and International by $50 at a minimum, and quite often they have cheaper deals anyway. Often i have heard of people coming in for a price beat and them being able to get flights for $100 cheaper anyway (the most i heard was $400 cheaper on a price beat).


----------



## ROE (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Nick453 said:


> There is no catch!!! ... they will beat the price for you if they still make profit on the ticket  ..... or they will refuse to match or beat the price if they don't make money on the ticket.  its very simple ..... just an old marketing gimmick
> 
> 
> I have tested their so called "LOW PRICE PROMISE" policy twice, and in both case... they refuse to beat or even match the price for me. 1st time it was a flight from Sydney to Bangkok, British Airway's website had special on for $950 including taxes, and FLT gave me $1150 for the same flight, when i mention the $950 from BA's website they basically refuse to beat or match the BA's price, and she told me to book my flight via BA's website because it will be cheaper ..... 2nd time it was a flight from Sydney to Europe where the price difference was $300,  it took them 2 weeks to come back to me and told me that they can not beat the price and they were happy to refund my deposit!!
> ...




You got to have written quote, it just too easy for you to come up with any price....they may advertise for that price but when it come to the quote it be a different stories.

JB, HVN and all the business I know in order for them to beat a very low quote you need a proper written quote else you are just bull****ting and try to get a low ball... If a big shop with massive buying power cant beat a quote you give them chance are the quote is bogus and no one else can do it, so good luck to you


----------



## So_Cynical (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I got my regular *specials* email from travel.com.au (WFT) so as an exercise 
i thought i would do a quick online comparison.

At Travel.com.au i clicked the Euro specials and clicked the second cheapest 
flight...Asiana SYD to LON 2/3/9 > 31/3/9...got to the last click online booking 
screen..ticket price $1279 with tax and all charges $1724.

At FLT front page, put my dates and other info in the "find and book" window 
to the right, and that took me to a great list of all the flights on that day.

Asiana was there near the top with a flight price of $1415...136 dollars more, i 
clicked inquire, expecting to go to the booking screen and found myself at a 
email us about the flight screen. :dunno:

Perhaps there gona offer me a secret off line deal when i inquire.
or perhaps they can do the taxes cheaper.


----------



## prawn_86 (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



So_Cynical said:


> Perhaps there gona offer me a secret off line deal when i inquire.
> or perhaps they can do the taxes cheaper.




You sure are cynical... 

If you have free time, take a screenshot, print it out and take it to a FLT agent. They *have* to beat it legally (otherwise you can report them to the ACCC etc). It may only be $50 but to some people its worth doing.

FLT would rather lose a bit of money on some flights, and that way outprice the competition. Squeeze the argins of the others, its what a market leader can do.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

What you guys are describing here is market power and bargaining position.......FLT just like Bunnings, Office works, BigW........WalMart.......work on an 'everyday' low prices model.....

That does not mean outragious specials or even everyday low prices..........it means that, should a consumer be bothered shopping around, FLT cause they are the dominant player wants be to the one with the last 'right of reply'......and as the dominant player can afford to offer the lowest price and make a loss if need be...........what this often means in practice is the dominant player has quite high margins and waits for the consumer, to ignite competition......

From an academic perspective in Competition law, this actually hits upon a fertile area of debate..........some say that a 'price beat guarantee' is actually anti-competitive in its own right.................Why?..........because the retailer is probably not offering the best price to start with but is actually threatening other retailors from undercutting them...........in effect saying, "don't bother competing with us, cause we will always offer the lowest price in the end".............the offers to beat prices "after you buy' something is an even stronger illustration of anti-competitiveness........why would a retailor promise to rebate money after someone has bought something?......Only a dominant retailor could afford to make such an offer...a big threat to the opposition not to discount


----------



## sammy84 (10 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> From an academic perspective in Competition law, this actually hits upon a fertile area of debate..........some say that a 'price beat guarantee' is actually anti-competitive in its own right.................Why?..........because the retailer is probably not offering the best price to start with but is actually threatening other retailors from undercutting them...........in effect saying, "don't bother competing with us, cause we will always offer the lowest price in the end".............the offers to beat prices "after you buy' something is an even stronger illustration of anti-competitiveness........why would a retailor promise to rebate money after someone has bought something?......Only a dominant retailor could afford to make such an offer...a big threat to the opposition not to discount




You could also argue that there is a possible case of predatory pricing. FLT could only offer this special due to its substantial market power. They would offer the special price at a loss with the view of recouping costs later after having competitors exit the market. I do prefer your argument however. I'm surprised the ACCC has never fully addressed this matter.


----------



## prawn_86 (11 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Ok so i talked to my FLT contact about the price beat issue, here are a couple points:

- Recently FLT changed their marketing campaign from "If you find a cheaper price, we'll beat it" to "Lowest prices guaranteed" since this, there are select few times when the price beats wont be offered:

1. If the website is an international one or the airfare is in a different currency. This makes sense.
2. If the quote brought to them is already a price beat from a competitor. This is due to the fact that FLT would rather the competitor to take a loss than them.
3. If the flight you bring a quote in for is already booked out they cannot price beat as there are no seats left. To get a price beat it must be the exact same flight number, time etc.

Also to get a price beat you have to purchase the same day you bring the quote in, as prices/availability can change overnight.

So if your price is say, $300 lower than what FLT is offering, agents are still advised to beat that price to squeeze the competition. Also the agent gets a commission, even from a price beat, so why wouldnt they...?


----------



## Nick453 (12 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Nick - How long ago did you try and get those price beats? As i said before, i know two people who work as a travel agents for FLT, and they HAVE TO beat a quote brought to them, otherwise they can lose their job, as its a flight centre policy, but is monitored by the ACCC. You could probably go to the ACCC with your complaint. Its a legal requirement that they beat the price, due to the fact that they advertise it (even if it means FLT losing money).
> 
> SC - The stores i know will beat domestic flights by $20 and International by $50 at a minimum, and quite often they have cheaper deals anyway. Often i have heard of people coming in for a price beat and them being able to get flights for $100 cheaper anyway (the most i heard was $400 cheaper on a price beat).




It was around April last year and in 2007. I had written quote for both tickets and still they did not beat the price for me. 
I did not bother with ACCC, going through ACCC sometimes could be lengthly process and no guaranteed result.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (16 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Bit of an odd ball post........I was watching one of my favourite shows, "Californication (First Season)" and in one of the key scenes........just in background, I could see one of Flight Centres US stores........which I believe have all since been branded Liberty............

Anyway, I started thinking, here you have the US business with the greatest potential off any of FLT's markets, where do you think in FLT's current market capitalisation the US business sits........Since it's an overall loss maker, it's probable that a negative value is placed on it currently.....although I understand the 'business travel' in US makes a profit........it's a funny thing......picture all of FLT's employees in US going off to work each day in a business that would not exist if FLT worked off a franchise model......

I don't really see how the US business is running at an operating loss, I understand it's just write downs on the Liberty acquisition which was apparently solidly profitable on acquisition

Not many Aussie companies kick ass in the US but we keep going over there......It makes sense cause the rewards are so high.......and in an industry that I think naturally tends toward global domination (it's travel after all), I'd put a lot of money on FLT's US business churning out the equivalent of today's market cap ever year, in not a ridiculous future timeframe


----------



## JTLP (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT announced half yearly's today...seems the general populous did not concur with what was touted from management.

Main thing that stood out to me was the divvie cut...which was interesting considering the amount of cash etc that FLT has on hand. I guess they are staying prudent in these times just like everyone else.

From reading the report it didn't seem too bad...everything seemed in line with previous guidance but Mr Market said no.

Also finished on it's daily low as well...mmmm


----------



## oldblue (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

It seems to me that if the SP gets much weaker it may prompt another attempt to take this company private.
I wonder if anyone has the will and the cash to do this.

Any feel for the situation, anyone?


----------



## ROE (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



JTLP said:


> FLT announced half yearly's today...seems the general populous did not concur with what was touted from management.
> 
> Main thing that stood out to me was the divvie cut...which was interesting considering the amount of cash etc that FLT has on hand. I guess they are staying prudent in these times just like everyone else.
> 
> ...





Not bad result .. I was anticipate such drop with the share price..
FLT has always been pay out below their actual earning a model I like a lot. Retain the cash for expansion and use less debt.

I be picking up more at this price this week...Mr Market said no is a good thing when you are on accumulation phase


----------



## ROE (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



oldblue said:


> It seems to me that if the SP gets much weaker it may prompt another attempt to take this company private.
> I wonder if anyone has the will and the cash to do this.
> 
> Any feel for the situation, anyone?




no one will sell out ....unless they paying a hefty price ..NAB just take 5% and PPT has nearly 10% and more with other funds.

I certainly don't want to sell my portion ...good company are rare  dont want them to disappear into private hand


----------



## persistentone (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I expected the decrease in earnings around 50%, but the way they completely hacked off their dividend completely broad-sided me.   They have so much cash and such strong cash flow that I think they could have made a better stand on their dividend.   Cutting it in half would have been an appropriate combination of fiscal prudence and generosity to the shareholders.   Cutting your dividend effectively 75% when your earnings are down 57% seems to me like an overreaction.

I made my initial investment at around A$6 and that was clearly a mistake.   I should have waited for the earnings release.   By the time this global depression troughs, we may see FLT between A$2 and A$3.   Without a strong dividend policy, the stock isn't going to hold at current levels for long.


----------



## persistentone (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre Options*

Can someone tell me where I can see a complete table of option strike prices and expiration months for stock options that trade for Flight Centre?

Can someone summarize any important differences between how Australian stock options and U.S. stock options trade?   Are Australian options European or US style expiration?


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (24 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Guys.....can I reiterate....Flight Centre has a small debt.......they tell you that at end of their slide presentation......the cash you see on the balance sheet is money travellers have paid, which will get passed on to holiday providers........

The result was not as terrible as expected...........existing business outside of Liberty only declined 14.5% on more costs.....gross profit was actually up on last year........and the Australian business looks like it was stable.....this is pretty good as last year was an out of this world result which sent the shares to about 32$

The Liberty Acquisition was outstandingly worse than anyone could expect and whilst contained a number of deliberate one-offs, will not get that better quickly...............worryingly, it had a trading loss

The bottom line however, is that this company based on a simple competitive advantage based on passing down profit incentives right down to the lowest level sales person...........how does it go ROE......Family, Tribe, Village.....that's FLT centre DNA........

They are implementing this culture on the existing US business.....Can they tame the US????  It would be hard to bet against.......Even if they don't, the Business travel business looks to be more than capable of pulling up the slack in the longer term.....If they can, the potential is enormous.....Liberty is already I think the second largest bricks and morter agency in US

For those wanting some FLT options, I don't know anywhere you can get them.........While FLT may be one of the top 10 travel companies in the world, it's market cap is currently almost small cap status........I doubt they offer such options


----------



## So_Cynical (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre Options*



persistentone said:


> Can someone tell me where I can see a complete table of option strike prices and expiration months for stock options that trade for Flight Centre?




http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/s...nderlyingCode&underlyingCode=FLT&optionType=B

Aussie options are way more expensive to trade than US ones.


----------



## persistentone (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre Options*



So_Cynical said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/s...nderlyingCode&underlyingCode=FLT&optionType=B
> 
> Aussie options are way more expensive to trade than US ones.




The lowest option strike price is A$8 with the stock trading at A$5?  Wow, that's amazing.   I also note that the total open positions across all strikes is a whopping four contracts.   There is no liquidity there at all.

That's amazing considering that Flight Centre is not a small company.  You would think that the Aussie investors would value the ability to hedge positions, but maybe options there just are not as popular as they are in the U.S.


----------



## skc (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Bit of an odd ball post........I was watching one of my favourite shows, "Californication (First Season)" and in one of the key scenes........just in background, I could see one of Flight Centres US stores........which I believe have all since been branded Liberty............
> 
> Anyway, I started thinking, here you have the US business with the greatest potential off any of FLT's markets, where do you think in FLT's current market capitalisation the US business sits........Since it's an overall loss maker, it's probable that a negative value is placed on it currently.....although I understand the 'business travel' in US makes a profit........it's a funny thing......picture all of FLT's employees in US going off to work each day in a business that would not exist if FLT worked off a franchise model......
> 
> ...




I was watching another US TV series and saw some Centro shopping centres in a background and thought: This must be such a great company, it's on TV!

Jokes aside, the latest results seem to indicate the $15.7m Liberty loss consisted of $9m trading loss and the rest in one-off restructuring. They are doing lots of cost cutting and closing down unprofitable shops to try to turn it around. I couldn't find the US segment P&L to see how much cost cutting is needed before it can go back into the black.

Another interesting thing in the results. Of the $657m cash it holds, 3% are invested in CDOs. It says "The CDOs relate to US Blue Chip Corporations and not sub-prime". I wonder which Blue Chips they are referring to... Whilst 3%  doesn't sound like much, it's actually ~$20m, so it's significant in relation to the overall size of their profit.


----------



## JTLP (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Eeek...

FLT in a tailspin again today...down another 12%?  Perhaps finishing on zi low did account for something.

I'm pretty Noob but it looks like its sitting on support from mid 97 and start of 99? Chart love from anyone who knows?

Any of you FLT Warren Buffet's buying up big now?


----------



## gohawks (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



JTLP said:


> Eeek...
> 
> FLT in a tailspin again today...down another 12%?  Perhaps finishing on zi low did account for something.
> 
> ...




Thinking about adding a little more to my current holdings. Find it hard to see how i could go wrong. Then again the same was said at $7. :


----------



## Gundini (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



JTLP said:


> Eeek...
> 
> 
> I'm pretty Noob but it looks like its sitting on support from mid 97 and start of 99? Chart love from anyone who knows?




Not sure if the support is much help at this stage JTLP. I jumped out of this plane a few weeks ago with a few bruises to show for it...


----------



## ROE (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT is a good test for me to have the guts to stand where other jump ship or catch the falling knife 
I load up more today ... prepare to buy more in the future if it down further


----------



## prawn_86 (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

As i have said before i like these guys, but am waiting for a buying opportunity. The cutting of the div obviously didnt impress the market, but for those with a long term view it may prove to be a blessing in disguise (who knows really). Providing management use the cash well then cutting the div may be a good thing

They have plenty of cash, so they are not going broke anytime soon. In fact the could even make losses for a couple of years and still not need to raise capital.

Im still waiting to buy in, will probably look for some trend confirmation...


----------



## skc (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> They have plenty of cash, so they are not going broke anytime soon. In fact the could even make losses for a couple of years and still not need to raise capital.
> 
> Im still waiting to buy in, will probably look for some trend confirmation...




Those cash are not really their's to keep, as pointed out earlier by another poster. Have a look at their balance sheet.

*Current Assets*
Cash and cash equivalents $457m
Financial assets $187m
Receivables $319m

The first two items are their cash / investments, total some $640m.

*Current liabilities*
Trade and other payables $870m
Borrowings $72m

So you can see their cash / investments are to be paid out to their suppliers - namely airlines, hotels, tour operators etc. They get the customer's cash first and pay their supplier later. As long as they have more revenue next month, this can go on and they get to enjoy income from having the cash sitting in their bank account. 

In fact, their quick ratio is just around 1. Whilst that's not a problem they are also not rolling in cash.


----------



## nomore4s (25 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Guys you may have to take off the rose coloured glasses with this one for awhile. I can understand why you like this company and I did as well but lets be honest the results were less then inspiring, and cutting the d/e by 76% hasn't given holders holding from higher prices much incentive to continue to hold. And with current market conditions and sentiment against this sector the stock was punished accordingly imo.

This stock is now off my longterm investment watchlist as it no longer meets some of the requirements.

From a T/A perspective I now have a target of $3.00 but I think it may actually overshoot this. There has now been a lot of damage done to this stock from a T/A perspective and it will require a bit of work for a turn around.
While vol has been up the last few days there are no signs atm of any real support yet, FLT could continue to trend down for a while imo.


----------



## persistentone (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

So where do we get a complete report for the recent Flight Centre earnings release?   Someone here made reference to a slide show.   Where do we find it?   I'm usually in US stocks and those have 10Q reports each quarter, and they get widely distributed by the press.


----------



## persistentone (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Those cash are not really their's to keep, as pointed out earlier by another poster. Have a look at their balance sheet.
> 
> *Current Assets*
> Cash and cash equivalents $457m
> ...




It's the operating cash flow, not the cash on the balance sheet, that pays the dividend.    

I have to see the presentation, but it looks like this quarter they had some one time restructuring costs?   Can someone explain why they had operating earnings that were positive, but hugely negative operating cash flow?   That's the opposite of their usual result.


----------



## persistentone (26 February 2009)

*Stop Losses*

Do they have stop losses on the ASX, and how do those work?    Ideally I would like a stop loss that works like this:

    If stock lowers to $X, then set a limit sell order of $X+$Y

What I am trying to avoid is setting a market order, which on an illiquid day would result in a very bad trade out.


----------



## ROE (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

If fundamentally dont change too much for this company, you see less and less shares exchange hand as people are loading it up and not letting it go...
Unless one of the existing big holder exit...the liquid on this stock at these price will be low.


----------



## hotbmw (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

man im so tempted to buy this at $4.

what would the p/e ratio be now?

remember this stock had a 1 time write off amount with liberty of 60m or so. cant remember exactly. and as other agencies fall in this environment FLT will pick up extra business.


----------



## skc (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> So where do we get a complete report for the recent Flight Centre earnings release?   Someone here made reference to a slide show.   Where do we find it?   I'm usually in US stocks and those have 10Q reports each quarter, and they get widely distributed by the press.




Most annoncements are lodged to ASX and can be accessed here:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO



persistentone said:


> I have to see the presentation, but it looks like this quarter they had some one time restructuring costs?   Can someone explain why they had operating earnings that were positive, but hugely negative operating cash flow?   That's the opposite of their usual result.




Not sure but probably due to timing differences of accrual accounting vs cash flow statment. The P&L showed total costs of doing their business at ~$835m, whereas the total "Payments to suppliers etc" under cash flow statement was around $1,040m. Either they post-paid them a lot of money incurred from the period before, or they pre-paid them something for the following period.



hotbmw said:


> man im so tempted to buy this at $4.
> 
> what would the p/e ratio be now?
> 
> remember this stock had a 1 time write off amount with liberty of 60m or so. cant remember exactly. and as other agencies fall in this environment FLT will pick up extra business.




Let's see. NPAT for half = $26.1m. Say full year = $55m. Total shares outstanding = 99.6m, so that's $0.55 per share. Latest price $4.4. P/E = 8.

Discl. I shorted this yesterday around $4.7, partially exited this morning at $4.15. Will probably re-enter the short if it gets close to my previous entry. My target is ~$3.5, based on the market pricing their dividend yield at ~6% (i.e. demand higher yield because of dividend uncertainty).


----------



## persistentone (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Most annoncements are lodged to ASX and can be accessed here:
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO
> 
> 
> ...




Wouldn't a dividend yield at 6% based on a full year dividend of 16 cents put the stock at $2.66?   Personally I think it was a bad decision for management to hoard so much of the dividend so quickly.     They eroded their support for the stock and it will be trading at $2 to $3 before this over.    They could have lowered a little each quarter if conditions in the economy did not stabilize.

Shorting a $5 stock that could one day receive a buyout offer above $15/share isn't my idea of easy money.   I agree with your general thesis and targets, but you have unhedged risks that are multiples of your investment.


----------



## nomore4s (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> Wouldn't a dividend yield at 6% based on a full year dividend of 16 cents put the stock at $2.66?   Personally I think it was a bad decision for management to hoard so much of the dividend so quickly.     They eroded their support for the stock and it will be trading at $2 to $3 before this over. They could have lowered a little each quarter if conditions in the economy did not stabilize.




Especially considering the majority of shareholders would have brought in at considerably higher prices. It will be interesting to see if this decision will pay dividends (sorry for the pun in six months when they report the full year figures.

This is a pretty drastic measure by management imo, and indicates the outlook and/or current position for FLT is not all that rosey. But in the end it could prove to be a very prudent business decision.



> Shorting a $5 stock that could one day receive a buyout offer above $15/share isn't my idea of easy money.   I agree with your general thesis and targets, but you have unhedged risks that are multiples of your investment.




While FLT might receive a takeover offer at some stage it won't be at $15 while prices are this low.


----------



## skc (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> Wouldn't a dividend yield at 6% based on a full year dividend of 16 cents put the stock at $2.66?   Personally I think it was a bad decision for management to hoard so much of the dividend so quickly.     They eroded their support for the stock and it will be trading at $2 to $3 before this over.    They could have lowered a little each quarter if conditions in the economy did not stabilize.




Their full year dividend tend to be higher than their interim (seasonality perhaps) - by 30% based on last year's numbers. So half year = 9c, full year = 12c. Giving ~21c and yield of 6% = $3.5. 



persistentone said:


> Shorting a $5 stock that could one day receive a buyout offer above $15/share isn't my idea of easy money.   I agree with your general thesis and targets, but you have unhedged risks that are multiples of your investment.




The same argument holds for any short trades so on this basis no one should ever short anything?! Besides, I don't intend to short-and-hold so the remote chance of a buyout offer at an unknown distant future isn't that big of a worry. I will take profit at target, or get stopped out as I move my trailing stop. 

I hope FLT does recover one day as it is a truely great Australian story. There was an ABC show done on "Skroo" Turner about his early 70s top-deck ventures. http://www.abc.net.au/queensland/stories/s1107592.htm. They hired a dobule decker, toured around Europe without any local knowledge, and almost killed a busload of backpackers in the process...

Anyway, I can see no catalyst for this stock in the short term, and one shouldn't let nationalistic sentiments affect trading decisions.


----------



## oldblue (26 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I like FLT as a business and as a company but with the SP  and the market in the state they're in at present, the stock looks a lot more like a short than a long to me just now.


----------



## persistentone (27 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Their full year dividend tend to be higher than their interim (seasonality perhaps) - by 30% based on last year's numbers. So half year = 9c, full year = 12c. Giving ~21c and yield of 6% = $3.5.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Shorting always has unlimited loss risks in theory.   In practice when you short a company that has a P/E of 100 with growth of 10% per annum, a market cap of $5Billion with $100M net cash on their balance sheets, your odds of a takeover at 300% of the market cap seem pretty slim.   I'm only making the point that with something like Flight Centre it's already pretty oversold on a long term historical basis.     Risk might equal or exceed reward for such a stock.


----------



## ROE (27 February 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

No one short his stock (i could be wrong) just too small to make any decent money for hedge fund..

But if they sort and create this sort of price..thanks .

the trouble for the shorter now is thee is no one selling for them to buy back
so they get squeeze and shorting company with good fundamental is dangerous because if someone keep buying while they shorting eventually
they need to buy back the shares and pay back and if that person is not selling they are in real trouble.

look what happen to all the guys that short VW  all gone bankrupt cos Porsche was buying them as they short and end up hold most of the shares and Porsche said u want it back? i sell u twice or 3 times the price u sell not long ago..kaboom game over...one guy lost a few Billion and end up killing himself.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12523898


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (2 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Picked up some more of these puppies today......oh for the heady days when they were 32$ and I thought they were cheap at 16$...its been a journey.....seems like last week I was looking forward to the privatisation of the business and a cash rebate of about $10, which is where they were going to insert the debt.......now you get the whole thing, almost debt free for $4 with Liberty thrown in....at these prices...........I've asked my employer to pay me in FLT shares....unfortunately, not practical, I have to pay brokerage!!


----------



## skc (3 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> No one short his stock (i could be wrong) just too small to make any decent money for hedge fund..
> 
> But if they sort and create this sort of price..thanks .
> 
> ...




That's a great VW story ROE thanks for the link. In this instance I can't say that VW has good fundamentals, but really just the Porsche guys have great finance skills. Funny that VW was the world's most valuable company at one instance!!

Not sure there is anyone out there doing the same on FLT. I am also not a hedge fund so I doubt my few $K going to cause a short squeeze.


----------



## nomore4s (3 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> That's a great VW story ROE thanks for the link. In this instance I can't say that VW has good fundamentals, but really just the Porsche guys have great finance skills. Funny that VW was the world's most valuable company at one instance!!
> 
> Not sure there is anyone out there doing the same on FLT. I am also not a hedge fund so I doubt my few $K going to cause a short squeeze.




Not possible over here due to the disclosure rules. Also larger players will determine size of shorts on risk and liquidity - you would be stupid to take a large short stake in companies with lower amounts of stock on issue or with tightly held registers, doesn't mean you can't short it just be sensible about it.

Still a lot of misconceptions about shorting imo, there is no way FLT current sp has anything to do with shorting, even if you couldn't short it the sp would be at the same level it is now.


----------



## gohawks (3 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Dropped past $4 just earlier, something i never thought i would see!

How much more do we see this one slipping tech traders?


----------



## prawn_86 (3 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



gohawks said:


> Dropped past $4 just earlier, something i never thought i would see!
> 
> How much more do we see this one slipping tech traders?




Im not a techie, but based on yeild (assuming the pay an 11c final div) that would make a 20c total div, so at $4 its yeilding 5%.

You wouldnt think it would drop below $3 (6.6% yeild) since the divvy has already been cut substantially, but who really knows what will hapen


----------



## skc (3 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



gohawks said:


> Dropped past $4 just earlier, something i never thought i would see!
> 
> How much more do we see this one slipping tech traders?




They did go ex-div today at 9c so you can argue that they are still above $4. In fact they are trading $4.06 now so not that great a fall today considering the overall market.


----------



## oldblue (3 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Im not a techie, but based on yeild (assuming the pay an 11c final div) that would make a 20c total div, so at $4 its yeilding 5%.
> 
> You wouldnt think it would drop below $3 (6.6% yeild) since the divvy has already been cut substantially, but who really knows what will hapen




A notional 6.6% yield in today's market might be seen as a bit skinny when you look at some of the others around, eg the banks, even after probable hefty cuts.
As you say, who really knows what will happen?


----------



## JTLP (9 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hitting 52 week low as I type...but Directors buying up BIG...I think one bought 100,000 from memory (about $383,000 worth) and the other bought 10,000 ($37,000)...faith in the long term or just a reassurance tactic? I'd have to think the former with one director throwing down a fair packet...


----------



## skc (9 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Testing $3.60 mark all afternoon and may be broken by end of play today, judging by the strength (or there lack of) in the DOM.

Director buying can sometimes indicate insider news and works for some stocks, particularly smaller caps (which FLT may soon qualify). But it can also just indicate that the directors don't know any better, or that they are emotionally attached to their own baby... 



> Harvey says: “I bought Harvey Norman shares at $4.55, then at $3.90. I thought Harvey Norman shares were good value at $4.55.” But it’s a “paper loss’’ Harvey is keen to point out for a company that also owns Domayne and Joyce Mayne outlets.




http://www.compareshares.com.au/black42.php


----------



## skc (10 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Another day, another low. $3.45 as I type. This has reached my price target, but still look very weak. Should I hold my short, or cover?

Market do overshoot on the down side a fair bit these days. I think I will just put a tightish stop slightly above $3.6. That level has been a bit of a support in the past few days.


----------



## suri (10 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT Closed in negative territory from 16th Feb 08 $6.00 to $3.40are we missing on any information?? Please update if u have any news


----------



## nomore4s (10 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



suri said:


> FLT Closed in negative territory from 16th Feb 08 $6.00 to $3.40are we missing on any information?? Please update if u have any news




lol, no news besides underwhelming results & slashing of the d/e in a sector with poor sentiment due the current global problems.

Slashing the d/e like that with the poor outlook for the sector the sp was always going to go only 1 way imo. Cutting the d/e like that gives current holders no reason to continue to hold - especially from higher prices - and also doesn't give people looking to get on board a reason to buy yet.  

Probably getting oversold now and due for a bounce at least.


----------



## persistentone (10 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



nomore4s said:


> lol, no news besides underwhelming results & slashing of the d/e in a sector with poor sentiment due the current global problems.
> 
> Slashing the d/e like that with the poor outlook for the sector the sp was always going to go only 1 way imo. Cutting the d/e like that gives current holders no reason to continue to hold - especially from higher prices - and also doesn't give people looking to get on board a reason to buy yet.
> 
> Probably getting oversold now and due for a bounce at least.




Very well said, unfortunately.   Had they cut the dividend in the same proportion as the reduction of cash flow, I think people would have interpreted this as prudent, and we might have seen a sell off to $4.5.   Cutting the dividend so much more than the loss of cash flow takes all cards off the table.   The institutional investors sell off in the first wave, and much of the activity we see in the last few days is probably retail investors.   

Many of the retail investors probably see this as an income stock.  You take away their income from them and they no longer want the stock.

The other point to make is that an extreme dividend reduction like we saw broadcasts fear to the market.   It makes it look like management is uncertain about the future and is going to be overprotective of its cash to buffer against uncertainty.   No one should be surprised to see the investors back off in the face of management showing fear.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (10 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

It is the small shareholders selling in this market on blind fear......probably disgruntled Intelligent investor subscribers........seriously, round 70% of this stock is locked up by owners and instos so it's the least informed dictating the market......and gosh they are scarred

And the information out of aviation is all bad...........Jetset, a major competitor, has announced two very large profit downgrades in two months

Flt is certainly no jetset or quantas or the near bankrupt Virgin Blue.......I'm not trying to rationalise with those who are blind scarred........I have been buying off them though!!!!!!!!!..........hopefully a bit of stability soon would be a little reassuring, if only to my ego..hehe


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (26 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Well, this share price has got me beat.......has anyone got any theory as too why this stock is up, what about 80% in the two weeks since I last posted.....

Can anyone believe the share price appreciated 12% alone today when it published a 'letter' which contains identical information and wording from their reported information few weeks ago......

I can't say I've experienced much like this......even more bizarre.....is my impulse to run off to bank some rare major gains from this market is well and truly tempered by my valuation of FLT which is north of $20......don't believe that value, consider that the 'anaysts' who have a sell on this stock think it will earn 80cents a share this year......in a turnaround year.....with last year the stock earning bout 1.50 with no one offs gains or losses.....Are you out ther ROE, what is this baby worth??


----------



## gohawks (27 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Well, this share price has got me beat.......has anyone got any theory as too why this stock is up, what about 80% in the two weeks since I last posted.....
> 
> Can anyone believe the share price appreciated 12% alone today when it published a 'letter' which contains identical information and wording from their reported information few weeks ago......
> 
> I can't say I've experienced much like this......even more bizarre.....is my impulse to run off to bank some rare major gains from this market is well and truly tempered by my valuation of FLT which is north of $20......don't believe that value, consider that the 'anaysts' who have a sell on this stock think it will earn 80cents a share this year......in a turnaround year.....with last year the stock earning bout 1.50 with no one offs gains or losses.....Are you out ther ROE, what is this baby worth??




I believe the rise is more to do with general market sentiment and also directors buying up big in the last couple of weeks. IMO it was always bound to happen $3 mark seemed ridiculously low for a share of this quality. Bought some more at the mid $3 mark so loving this spike.


----------



## ROE (27 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Well, this share price has got me beat.......has anyone got any theory as too why this stock is up, what about 80% in the two weeks since I last posted.....
> 
> Can anyone believe the share price appreciated 12% alone today when it published a 'letter' which contains identical information and wording from their reported information few weeks ago......
> 
> I can't say I've experienced much like this......even more bizarre.....is my impulse to run off to bank some rare major gains from this market is well and truly tempered by my valuation of FLT which is north of $20......don't believe that value, consider that the 'anaysts' who have a sell on this stock think it will earn 80cents a share this year......in a turnaround year.....with last year the stock earning bout 1.50 with no one offs gains or losses.....Are you out ther ROE, what is this baby worth??




Hey been busy .. I'm still holding and FLT still has more to go yet.
Uncle Walter once told me, if you buy a quality company at bargain price something good may happen to it 

I could not believe my eyes with FLT price...dream do come true when you wish you can buy FLT at this sort of price some week ago.

How much this baby worth you ask, I shall give you 2 calculations

Case 1 Worse case scenario:
Earning 35 cents a year (way low even with recent earning report), with 5% growth for 10 years, then say it stay like that forever from here on till the end of its business life ... I factor 5% you can get your money if put in the bank...and I estimate this scenario to be 80% likely to occur.. the intrinsic value of this stock will be around $8 - $8.40

Case 2: best case not impossible but with its track record performance not hard and I give myself only 60% that I get it right.

Earning 60 cents a year ..growth for 10 years at 8% and never growth again.
for the rest of its life between $13-$14 a share.

so at $4-$5 a stock this guy give you 50% margin of safety even in absolutely everything dies scenario .... a absolutely STEAL and boy did I buy when I see the price ... any performance outside those 2 scenario you get a staggering return on investment.....

and of course I been follow FLT for years and I know its management style without need to meet them... Graham Turner is a remarkable manager, he doesn't mess around...he get thing done and when thing are not profitable he doesn't wish something nice will happen to FLT he takes speedy steps to correct it and turn it profitable again... Watch Liberty in US 2 years from now and you understand the genius of Graham Turner.

They survive the dot.com, they survive 9/11, they survive the ACCC
and they came out super strong 2 years ago then this financial crisis hit
just another small hurdle for Graham to kick ass and chew bubblegum.


----------



## skc (30 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hey ROE, can I ask what discount rate you use for your DCF calculations, and how you came up with it (e.g. using comparables, historical beta)?

thanks


----------



## ROE (31 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Hey ROE, can I ask what discount rate you use for your DCF calculations, and how you came up with it (e.g. using comparables, historical beta)?
> 
> thanks




I use a number of where i can be 100% sure I can get a return which is long term government bonds (5%-7%)....some people use different figure but it to their own preferences.

I dont use Beta or Omega .... I try to keep it nice and simple and work on lowest figure or average.


----------



## wonderrman (31 March 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Economic situation looks to be getting worse over the next two years, this doesn't hold well for the airline/travel industry. Even though I don't really use funnymentals in my analysis, that fact alone would keep me away no matter what the price. wonder.


----------



## skc (1 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> I use a number of where i can be 100% sure I can get a return which is long term government bonds (5%-7%)....some people use different figure but it to their own preferences.
> 
> I dont use Beta or Omega .... I try to keep it nice and simple and work on lowest figure or average.




I am probably reading you wrong...but doesn't a low discount rate returns a higher share price target?

For instance, cash flow of $10 in perpetuity at discount rate of 5% (say the risk free rate) = $200 present value (i.e. share price). Same cash flow, discounted with 10% gives only $100.

By adopting a low discount rate, one would be pricing a share price higher than it should be, and certainly higher than other investors out there... For FLT, I will use a discount rate no less than 11%. This is probably on the low side, given FLT is highly leverged to the overall economy, investors will demand a higher return for the risk.


----------



## ROE (1 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> I am probably reading you wrong...but doesn't a low discount rate returns a higher share price target?
> 
> For instance, cash flow of $10 in perpetuity at discount rate of 5% (say the risk free rate) = $200 present value (i.e. share price). Same cash flow, discounted with 10% gives only $100.
> 
> By adopting a low discount rate, one would be pricing a share price higher than it should be, and certainly higher than other investors out there... For FLT, I will use a discount rate no less than 11%. This is probably on the low side, given FLT is highly leverged to the overall economy, investors will demand a higher return for the risk.




True but using un-realistic discount rate you tend to get the price wrong and never enter because it never reach that target price after you factor in margin of safety..

you want to use a rate that provide 100% certain that you get it if u put your money to work from day one and that number is Bond rate...anything higher just not realistic .. can you get 11% discount rate for 10 years? 
if yes then use it , if not why use 11% ? use something you can 100% certain to get like bank rate or bond rate.  but anyway it just my opinion like I said diff people use diff rate and that make the market the way it is.. 

I don't factor too much risk into my return.. I factor certainty more than risk, if I know something for sure going to give me 5 cents return then I rather invest in that than say something that may provide me with 7 cents but not 100% certainty..... and I'm sure FLT going to give me min 35 cents return regardless what risk people perceive it to be, to me i don't consider that is a risk

Uncle Warren said ... Risk comes from unknown, if you know what you get yourself into then its not a risk.. simple concept damn hard to practice


----------



## skc (2 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> True but using un-realistic discount rate you tend to get the price wrong and never enter because it never reach that target price after you factor in margin of safety..
> 
> you want to use a rate that provide 100% certain that you get it if u put your money to work from day one and that number is Bond rate...anything higher just not realistic .. can you get 11% discount rate for 10 years?
> if yes then use it , if not why use 11% ? use something you can 100% certain to get like bank rate or bond rate.  but anyway it just my opinion like I said diff people use diff rate and that make the market the way it is..
> ...




I see where you are coming from, but it seems to violate some of the more fundamental principles of finance and stock valuation. Essentially you are saying:

1. The cashflow that FLT shareholder will get is as certain as a government bond (hence justifying the use of the same discount rate).

2. Other market participants will share view 1 above and price FLT the same way.

Anyway, not here to educate on corporate finance 101. Good luck with your analysis.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (2 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I don't really know why this is so complicated.......who cares about discount cash flow models anyway.......if you want more 'certain returns', go for a different issue.....

If you want a living, breathing, somewhat variable retail growth business, you may consider FLT, which last year earned about $1.50 EPS without one offs...it's best result ever

Some people argue that FLT is not the business it was last year....well, I agree...it has 9% more shops for one thing, a few nasty one off losses and an acquired US business that sunk like a stone..

Some have noticed the share price is not as high as last year.....32$ down to 6$......

Does anyone want to bet me this business will never earn above 1.50 EPS?  Well, I won't take your bet....who wants a 50/50 returns when this stock will likely trade about 600% higher when it again earns about 1.50EPS.......and all the while spurning tax advantaged income.............skeptical, that's only a PE 20 for a stock which has consistently grown since listing at what, 95 cents I think.....


----------



## skc (4 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> I don't really know why this is so complicated.......who cares about discount cash flow models anyway.......if you want more 'certain returns', go for a different issue.....
> 
> If you want a living, breathing, somewhat variable retail growth business, you may consider FLT, which last year earned about $1.50 EPS without one offs...it's best result ever
> 
> ...




Discount cash flow models have their place, if only to understand the boundaries and allow one to postulate different scenarios. I think that is what ROE is doing, by saying that he sees worst-case scenario of 35c EPS and little growth, and this means a minimum price of $X. And since current price is less than $X, there is a lot of margin of safety. I totally agree with this approach, but was just having a discussion on the discount rate being applied. 

As to FLT, I don't think the market will be so generous and apply a PE of 20 for a long time.


----------



## skc (7 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Watch out below 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=417317#post417317

Full year NPAT now $36 to $44m, or EPS 36c to 44c. Last year EPS 150c.

They are bleeding bad in the US. Not only on their normal business activities but in their investment income. Many Aussie companies have gone to the US and failed - I hope FLT won't be one of them.


----------



## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> Watch out below
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=417317#post417317
> 
> ...




Yes I agree. This funnymental business regarding FLT sounds silly. A good quote comes to mind from the legendary John Maynard Keynes - *"markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent." *

I don't know why someone would add to a possition that is going down. I think I would prefer to own something that is going up. wonder.


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT seems to be pretty well tied to the recovery coming. Like any company though, in any industry, the stock price will move according to perception of future position, not current economics, or even next months economics. 

While a lot of resource companys have looked bottomish to me, this one doesn't quite yet. Still a wide ranging channel heading down from the highs. Needs some sideways action from here to stabilise really. Maybe a higher low and high will make it look a bit better. 

Be nice if it can skip over $6.40 ish and then use it as support. Until then, looks vulnerable. 

Could be an awesome turnaround story once people start being game enough to fork out some cash on discretionary travel.


----------



## prawn_86 (16 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Yeh i agree Kennas. A close above 6.40ish seems important in the overall scheme of things. I have freed up some cash and am looking to enter, however its interesting to note that PPT is now selling down according to last nights ann, so that might create downward pressure if they continue.

Watching and waiting to pounce...


----------



## Sean K (16 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

A chart more promising is the 6 monthly, where it looks like it's broken a short term down trend and moved sideways. The current resistance is more like a zone between 6.00 and 6.50 by the looks of this. Next positive sign might be for $5.40 ish to hold and 6.50 to break.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Looks like this overall market rally is slowly running out of legs, and the same appears to be happening with FLT. WHile personally i would be happy entering at these prices, i might as well try and pick them up cheaper if i can.

Im with Kennas on the 5.40 - $5 downside support, and 6.50 resistance, so will just wait and see if it bounce off support. Nice to see its getting a bit of sideways consolidation, but i have a gut feel that $5 may be seen soon.

I will try and get a hold of some more store data from the person i know who works there. I know its not a representative sample, but i think it was a good insight last time


----------



## wonderrman (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Looks like this overall market rally is slowly running out of legs, and the same appears to be happening with FLT. WHile personally i would be happy entering at these prices, i might as well try and pick them up cheaper if i can.




I would agree. Technically I would have been out of this stock at the $6.10 lvl. The market looks like it is going to head back down again in the short term, FLT will head down to. I don't know why there is all the fuss over this stock, there are a lot more better propositions out there in the market to take advantage off.

Economically we are quite screwed and the next five years are going to be very unpredictable. I don't know how people are coming up with a "net present value" price tag and expecting it to come to fruitration. Even if you agree with your price target, I would suggest you read my signature as it is very true and very smart said by the legend John Maynard Keynes. 

If you're in on the funnymentals I would say good luck, if you're in on the technicals, I'd say get out. 

 Wonder.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> I don't know why there is all the fuss over this stock, there are a lot more better propositions out there in the market to take advantage off.
> 
> If you're in on the funnymentals I would say good luck, if you're in on the technicals, I'd say get out.




Personally using a bit of both TA and FA. FA for the potential, TA for the entry.

Just out of interest what other 'blue chip' stocks do you think has more long (5+ year) potential?


----------



## freddy2 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> .. there are a lot more better propositions out there in the market to take advantage off.




Such as?



> I would suggest you read my signature as it is very true and very smart said by the legend John Maynard Keynes.




It hardly applies if you don't use leverage or otherwise put yourself in a position of being a forced seller.


----------



## wonderrman (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Personally using a bit of both TA and FA. FA for the potential, TA for the entry.




Yes that is good and smart.  I would argue though that it's very hard to complete fundamental analysis at the moment when not one single person has any idea where the company will be in 6 months, 1 yrs, 2 yrs etc. time because of the economic environment. Who knows how good or (I bet) bad the economy will be in a years time. How can you put a price tag on something when you have no idea about how the company is doing. 

I would also suggest one simple thing that would stop me buying this stock if using fundamental analysis: if the economy continues to plunge disposable income will drop even more and people would obviously not feel as happy using credit cards. The first thing to go is all the extra stuff like holiday houses, boats etc. People won't be travelling on planes and boats because they cannot afford it. This would obviously be very bad to Flight Centre. I would not buy this stock no matter what because of this if using FA. Yes it could be worth a lot more in 5 yrs, but that means I might have to wait 4 yrs before I see any capital appreciation. I'm a impatient person and could not tolerate this. 

Rather then using both, if you really wanted to be in this stock I would be using techno analysis to buy in at the dips and sell out at the tops. 



prawn_86 said:


> Just out of interest what other 'blue chip' stocks do you think has more long (5+ year) potential?




We'll I don't really buy for the long term and my selections arn't always blue chips. I usually only hold a stock for a few months while riding the uptrend and like to buy out of a break out from a basing pattern. There are a few stocks around at the moment that look like they can do this but probably won't happen because of the general market movement.

If I could buy one stock though and have to hold it for 5 years it would be BHP. It really is a beautiful stock that has all of Australia and half of their super resting on it. It will do well in the next period of growth as long as China don't get there hands on them. It seems to always be a good buy in times likes these, it always turns out to be a good buy.

wonder


----------



## wonderrman (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



freddy2 said:


> Such as?




Refer to previous post. I use charts to time my trades so possible entries change. Obviously there is less opportunities at the moment due to the market. I would say though if I was using funnymentals to buy I would much rather be in somethng like BHP. 



> It hardly applies if you don't use leverage or otherwise put yourself in a position of being a forced seller.




Leverage has nothing to do with it. The quote is saying that you can buy a stock at .30 and think it is cheap, but then it can go down to .20 or .10 or .5 before it heads back up, if it does at all. This might not be rational, but the market is an irrational beast so this can happen.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Obviously you have a different timeframe, so thats where the difference of opinions arise, its not comparing apples with apples.

On a fundamental view of FLT, even if the economy worsens i think FLT will remain profitable. I have confidence in their management team. Corporate travel accounts for a lot of their earnings, and while business' may cut back on 1st and business class, they still need their staff to travel. The fact that they are in a near monopoly position is also a huge advantage. If the economy does get to a point that you think it will (and i think its a possibility also) then other travel agents will be going broke before FLT, meaning consumers will have to use FLT more and more in that situation.

FLT are alos diversifying into pushbikes, they own the 99bikes set of stores. This may seem an interesting diversion but pushbikes outsold car 4:1 worldwide last year, so it could (hopefully) proove to be a good move.

RE irrational markets - completely agree, but when looking for an income stock its a long term proposition...


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> Leverage has nothing to do with it.




Your quote came about because Keynes blew up while leveraged although his idea was ultimately correct. So your quote has everything to do with leverage.


----------



## wonderrman (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Trembling Hand said:


> Your quote came about because Keynes blew up while leveraged although his idea was ultimately correct. So your quote has everything to do with leverage.




The story involved might, but the underlying theme does not have to revolve around leverage, and that is what I was refering to mate. It applies to any stock they you believe is "cheap" that heads a lot lower because of the markets inefficiencies.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> The story involved might, but the underlying theme does not have to revolve around leverage, and that is what I was refering to mate. It applies to any stock they you believe is "cheap" that heads a lot lower because of the markets inefficiencies.




But without leverage it is a lot simpler risk vs return equation, and the most that can be lost is the initial investment. Comes back to another saying "only invest what you can ultimately afford to lose" (in an absolute worse case scenario)


----------



## skc (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> On a fundamental view of FLT, even if the economy worsens i think FLT will remain profitable. I have confidence in their management team. Corporate travel accounts for a lot of their earnings, and while business' may cut back on 1st and business class, they still need their staff to travel. The fact that they are in a near monopoly position is also a huge advantage. If the economy does get to a point that you think it will (and i think its a possibility also) then other travel agents will be going broke before FLT, meaning consumers will have to use FLT more and more in that situation.




Exactly why fundamental analysis is so hard to get right. If market shirnks by 10% but FLT market share increase by 5% (i.e. larger share of a smaller pie), are they better or worse off? Unless you know exactly their current market share, margins etc it is very hard to quantify.

I don't believe FLT is a near monopoly at all. There are many ways to book airfares. There are only 2 things I am quite sure about:

1. Air travel is highly leveraged to the economy, and risk of economy getting worse is very real.
2. Bricks and mortar travel agency is a mature, if not declining, industry.

So FLT prospects look poor both short and long term.



prawn_86 said:


> FLT are alos diversifying into pushbikes, they own the 99bikes set of stores. This may seem an interesting diversion but pushbikes outsold car 4:1 worldwide last year, so it could (hopefully) proove to be a good move.




This is interesting, but I can't understand what sort of synergies is there with their travel business?


----------



## freddy2 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> Refer to previous post. I use charts to time my trades so possible entries change. Obviously there is less opportunities at the moment due to the market. I would say though if I was using funnymentals to buy I would much rather be in somethng like BHP.




IMO BHP is one of the worst fundamental buys on the market. At a market cap of $115 billion with average earnings (ie non bubble, non recession) of about $10 billion pre tax. Compare to FLT with a market cap of $0.6 billion and average earnings of about $0.1 billion pre tax. And that is not even considering the poor long term economics of the resource sector - highly capital intensive and little product differentiation.



> Leverage has nothing to do with it. The quote is saying that you can buy a stock at .30 and think it is cheap, but then it can go down to .20 or .10 or .5 before it heads back up, if it does at all. This might not be rational, but the market is an irrational beast so this can happen.




Leverage has everything to do with remaining solvent. You really only seem to understand 1/2 the quote. Without debt/leverage I can remain solvent forever, at least as long as the market remains irrational.


----------



## skc (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> The story involved might, but the underlying theme does not have to revolve around leverage, and that is what I was refering to mate. It applies to any stock they you believe is "cheap" that heads a lot lower because of the markets inefficiencies.




You can only go insolvent if you owe someone money. 

However, if your quote is about pain tolerance or balls of steel, then leverage is not required.


----------



## Sean K (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



freddy2 said:


> And that is not even considering the poor long term economics of the resource sector



Lots of assumtions here and this takes the cake. 



What FLT need to do now is set themselves up for the next bull, which is around the corner. The US and Europe are still going to be their main play, but in the next 20 years, 3-6 billion Asians are going to be able to afford overseas holidays as well, on top of increased business travel.

When they survive this short to mid term disaster, they'll come out with an even greater market share probably, after all the minor players have collapsed.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> This is interesting, but I can't understand what sort of synergies is there with their travel business?




Very early on, but these are my thoughts on why the have done it:

Cycle sales etc are growing and this provides an extra (small) income stream as a way of diversification.

The synergy i can see is that FLT will be able to sell cycle tours through its wholesaler, Infinity. Admittedly its not much of one, but perhaps they have other ideas also for synergies.

I can remember seeing somewhere (BRW i think) that FLT management see the cycling sales industry in Aus as very fragmented, which is similar to what the travel agency was to when FLT started. So they want to try and set up a similar thing with various stores so they can have a bigger buying power etc. It will be interesting to watch its development.

RE bricks and mortar - its amazing how many people still book their travel through agents. Last stat i saw was >80% of people (thats 80% of all travel) still book with agents. Lots of reasons such as saving time, organising whole packages, agent has the responisibility if things go wrong etc etc


----------



## freddy2 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



kennas said:


> Lots of assumtions here and this takes the cake.




Really? The resource sector has gone through numerous boom/bust cycles over the last 100 years with alternating periods of undersupply (boom) followed by periods of oversupply (bust). There is required large amounts of capital spending/reinvestment and little to no difference between the same product produced by different companies. The resource sector is a prime example of an industry with poor long term economics, another is the memory (DRAM) manufacturing industry.


----------



## freddy2 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> RE bricks and mortar - its amazing how many people still book their travel through agents. Last stat i saw was >80% of people (thats 80% of all travel) still book with agents. Lots of reasons such as saving time, organising whole packages, agent has the responisibility if things go wrong etc etc




http://www.theage.com.au/travel/tra...king-pros-and-cons-20090402-9ksi.html?page=-1

Jane E. Fraser finds the death of the travel agent has been greatly exaggerated.

When it comes to booking travel, the internet is king. Right? Online bookings are soaring, booking engines are reporting huge profits and traditional travel agents are suffering.


----------



## Sean K (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



freddy2 said:


> Really? The resource sector has gone through numerous boom/bust cycles over the last 100 years with alternating periods of undersupply (boom) followed by periods of oversupply (bust).



Haven't we just bust? Just where do you think we are in the cycle? 

World economics are at a standstill and may get a wose, but the 'bust' has probably occurred. 

LONG term, we will recapture these losses. Will take some time, but it's inevitable. 

The good companies warrant attention as fantastic LONG term opportunities.

Cripes, Chindia has only just started to develop. The 2000's are the millenium of Asia. This is a hickup in the grander picture.

Yes, my assumptions....


----------



## wonderrman (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



skc said:


> You can only go insolvent if you owe someone money.
> 
> However, *if your quote is about pain tolerance or balls of steel,* then leverage is not required.




This is exactly what I am meaning. Forgot the literal meaning of insolvent for a minute if you can. I am talking about the fact that if you a buy a company at $10 and it goes to $4 you will **** yourself. Most people do anyway. This is why I don't agree with funnymental analysis, you can buy something at $5 cause you think it is cheap but it can keep on heading down, so you keep on buying. Your trying to catch the falling knife. Why bother. Buy things that are going up.



> On a fundamental view of FLT, even if the economy worsens i think FLT will remain profitable. I have confidence in their management team. Corporate travel accounts for a lot of their earnings, and while business' may cut back on 1st and business class, they still need their staff to travel. The fact that they are in a near monopoly position is also a huge advantage. If the economy does get to a point that you think it will (and i think its a possibility also) then other travel agents will be going broke before FLT, meaning consumers will have to use FLT more and more in that situation.




This is all well and good but I have no interest in how there going to cope because from a top-down short-term view the economy is in the poo. The only interest I take in mgmt is when they are buying. You comment on consumers going to FLT is taken on board, but what happens when there are hardly any consumers who want to travel? Like we are seeing now.

Funnymentals is out of my league so those comments probably sound stupid. W.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> You comment on consumers going to FLT is taken on board, but what happens when there are hardly any consumers who want to travel? Like we are seeing now.




In this case you get what has happened now. Profit has gone from 150 mill to about 80mill (rough figures at work so cant get exact ones).

The point i was trying to make is that there is a certain proportion of the population that HAVE to travel, and i think/hope/assume that even if only that proportion travels, then FLT would maintain profitability. 

If the economy does reach worst case scenario, whole countries will be going broke, so virtually every stock will be wiped out also, so in an absolute worst case, everyone is screwed, not just me...


----------



## ROE (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



wonderrman said:


> This is exactly what I am meaning. Forgot the literal meaning of insolvent for a minute if you can. I am talking about the fact that if you a buy a company at $10 and it goes to $4 you will **** yourself. Most people do anyway. This is why I don't agree with funnymental analysis, you can buy something at $5 cause you think it is cheap but it can keep on heading down, so you keep on buying. Your trying to catch the falling knife. Why bother. Buy things that are going up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Different people look at different way to invest, so to me if you are good and comfortable with your method then stick with it whether it's fundamental or technical.

To me buying a stock is like buying into a business, when it reach a price
that I think provide reasonable return I buy and if it offer even cheaper price I add a few more to it.. I then forget about it and it give me an income year in and year out and as long as the fundamental doesn't change too much I stay in the business or unless some other business present a better value then I take earning from one business and invest in that one.

An example I would give someone if they ask, imagine I run a resort
and it earn me $100 a year for the last ten years and while the good time roll on Mr market may offer to buy my resort for $1500

suddenly out of no where a snow storm happen that year
and hardly any tourist turn up and my earning is now down to $30
and Mr market offer to buy my resort for $200 

Would I sell at $200 ? probably not Would I buy more at $200 I sure would knowing in good time earning will be back to $100 a year or close to it... Mean while people walking by and fly by and only see the resort earning $30 a year and it look like it may go under so they either don't want to know or don't want to buy but instead opt for more trendy stocks that lose money but may promise a better future 

A couple years went by and people start to go to the resort again due to excess debt they take out for holiday or their home equity  and the resort is now making $50 a year and people start seeing this bugger is actually making money and jump on the bandwagon and drive the stock up, then next year it make $60 bucks while the trendy stocks gone belly up and people chasing stocks that actually earn money  .... 

Mr Market is hyper happy and I call it a day and cash out and look for another resort that just had a big storm and look like it's about to die.

Knowing which business has a stormy year and buy into it is the key.. many business has a stormy year but never recover  those you want to stay away like ABS, Allco, Babcock and what can give you the information to sort this out is their annual reports and their business structure
understand that, then you are 98% of the time will pick a champion that suffer a cold, and like all champion they will come back better and stronger.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Wonderrman, are we seriously having a debate about the worth of fundamental anaysis......doesn't it seem strange to you that it's a fundamental investor and not a trader, who is the richest man in the world (depending on the day) in Omaha.....starting with near nothing........it's not chartists that rival him either, it's self made entreprenurs......the ultimate fundamental investors

Regarding FLT, despite all the speculation, I reckon the boat has already sailed...and the market knows it...does it seem strange to anyone that FLT announced a massive profit downgrade and the share price has gone no where near its recent lows......

The reason why is that the worst has gone and smart money has flowed in........

Last few days, I've been booking a Kakadu safari for a few weeks.......and anecodotal evidence backed what Scroo Turner said the other week, "a distinct change in trading in April"

For the sceptics, and why not?  Remember, when your trading stock is at all time price lows, its not the producer that benefits, but the retailer who does not care if its a $999 return LA trip.......they still take their cut

In this way, FLT is very similar to the banks right now.....near term earnings are falling, but people have worked out margins on core banking operations are soaring...........stock prices are going up despite near term earnings going down.........

The stock market is indeed a predictive mechanism and gees I'm looking forward to Kakadu.......


----------



## So_Cynical (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Just out of interest what other 'blue chip' stocks do you think has more long (5+ year) potential?




ou ou i know 1 :bekloppt: a stock in potential transition into a major player 
in an evolving industry where the old players haven't got a clue....lest 
that's the way i see it 



kennas said:


> World economics are at a standstill and may get a wose, but the 'bust' has probably occurred.
> 
> LONG term, we will recapture these losses. Will take some time, but it's inevitable.
> 
> The good companies warrant attention as fantastic LONG term opportunities.




Totally agree...and ill add that we have prob seen production levels for many minerals/metals
that wont be surpassed for prob another ten years...due to so many new projects getting 
shelved, and just look at so many of those projects with low grade ores and big big Dev costs.

The existing producers that have lowered production will be the ones to reap the rewards over 
the next decade or so.


----------



## ROE (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



freddy2 said:


> http://www.theage.com.au/travel/tra...king-pros-and-cons-20090402-9ksi.html?page=-1
> 
> Jane E. Fraser finds the death of the travel agent has been greatly exaggerated.
> 
> When it comes to booking travel, the internet is king. Right? Online bookings are soaring, booking engines are reporting huge profits and traditional travel agents are suffering.




I seen it many times over, the video kills the radio stars, etoys will wipe out toys r us, Yahoo will out run Coca Cola earning in the new world economy.. The mining boom is stronger and longer and anything that doesn't have mining ties is probably not worth considering.

IAS will take away tabcorp corporate booking market share yet IAS is a losing money operation and tabcorp pay nice 70 cents dividend a year 

People don't book travel via agents any more, they all done online, everyone has internet right? yet each day I go pass FLT stores I see people queue up taking to agents..such strange phenomenon and my work buddies travel oversea and I ask did you book online, oh no too much hassle we book via FLT agents  

people like to chase the promise of tomorrow but not what they already have at hand.. I'm the old school a bird in hand = 2 birds in the bush or more  ....

Until people actually understand the business, they will be driven by fears and that create opportunity for patient people who has nothing to lose but wait for this sort of opportunity walk into what people thinking is a shinking ship and walk out with the best furnitures.

I wonder how many people actually truly understand FLT operations? and I can tell you FLT is not just about booking tickets


----------



## ROE (20 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Wonderrman, are we seriously having a debate about the worth of fundamental anaysis......doesn't it seem strange to you that it's a fundamental investor and not a trader, who is the richest man in the world (depending on the day) in Omaha.....starting with near nothing........it's not chartists that rival him either, it's self made entreprenurs......the ultimate fundamental investors
> 
> Regarding FLT, despite all the speculation, I reckon the boat has already sailed...and the market knows it...does it seem strange to anyone that FLT announced a massive profit downgrade and the share price has gone no where near its recent lows......
> 
> ...




and did you know Scroo Turner top up more shares quietly at recent low outlay another cool $383,000 for the privilege

Wonder why he didn't buy when it was $30 buck but buy now when things look gloomy.  Sound like my tourist resort stories  to repeat great Uncle Ben quote.

"Short term the market is a voting machine, Long term it's a weighting machine"

CCP was voting machine last year, this year it seem like a weighting machine plus extra 6 cents spare change dropped out due to dividend payments weight heavily on the scale


----------



## prawn_86 (23 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

This is what I am talking about with FLTs market position. Harvey World Travel is a fairly big player and if they go bust its probably going to be good for FLT. FLT might even be able to pick up some of their assets on the cheap if they see anything they like.



> Stella operates the Breakfree, Peppers and Mantra Hotels holiday accommodation brands across Australia. The group also operates about 1200 travel agencies through the Harvey World Travel, Travelscene and Gullivers Travel Group.
> 
> THE global Stella tourism empire, which owns the Harvey World Travel chain and manages one in five Gold Coast holiday apartments, is in danger of collapse, threatening to cost banking giant UBS hundreds of millions of dollars




http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25373533-462,00.html


----------



## wonderrman (23 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I'm sorry I haven't replied to this topic for a few days I have been busy.

I'm not getting into an arguement with you funnymentalists as I  cannot be stuffed wasting my time. Someone's comment regarding Buffett is meaningless as just because one person uses fundamental analysis very well doesn't mean other people can. You can't be a Buffett unless you have billions of dollars and are able to manipulate markets or have the inside scope. That is the thing about fundamental analysis its hard to win because so many people are analysing a company and know what you know. Unless you are an inside trader or have enough capital to manipulate markets then you can't be a Buffett. People will probably comment on how Buffett came from $0 to make his huge fortune. I would say yes that is true and Buffett is an extrodinary individual unlike anyone else who has done very well. The useage of Buffett as an example to demonstrate the success of fundamentalism is no good as it only proves that one person has done very well out of it, it doesn't mean others can at all unless you are as gifted as Warren Buffett. There musn't be many people out there who are because I don't see to many other value investors in the Forbes Rich List.

I would also comment that traders can and have made money in this market even though it is in the ****. Buffett hasn't and has lost money like most other fundamental analysis. I would ask Rainmaker what your loss has been over the past 18 months while you have hold on to stocks that have fallen. A proper trader might have made a loss, but a bit a small one due to stop losses. A fundamental analyst propably bought FLT at $19 when it fell from $27 or $11 when it fell from $19. A chartist would have seen that it was clearly in a downtrend and would have stuck away and waited to the reformation basing pattern (stage 1) begun. For me, technical analysis at least provides some probability as you can have quite a good hypothesis of what is going to happen. Even if you make a mistake you use tight stops and it will be a small one. Rather, fundamental analysts simply perform a valuation of the company that takes a long time and take a stab at the purchase accordingly. You can jump in a clear downtrend and lose a lot of capital, both on paper and mentally. 

Now, I have enclosed a chart on FLT if anyone is interested. A lot of damage has been done and I expect a consolidation and form of a base between 4 and 7 before any significant gains can be made. 







wonder.


----------



## prawn_86 (23 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Wonder,

I agree with you Re: Buffett, his is exceptional circumstances, but thats not to say that no money can be made from fundamental buying (as opposed to trading).

While not wanting to speak for Rainmaker, it appears to me that you are not taking dividends or timeframe into consideration. I am Treasurer of an organisation whose constitution binds them to invest very conservative. This organisation has held the same 2 stocks for about 15 years. Even at current levels they are still sitting on a capital gain AND they have collected dividends along the way which have equated to more than the total originally invested. Even after those co's cut divs this year the organisation is still getting a 10% pa return on their initial investment. Remeber that div yeild is diffeent for everyone depending what their buy price is...


----------



## wonderrman (23 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Wonder,
> 
> I agree with you Re: Buffett, his is exceptional circumstances, but thats not to *say that no money can be made from fundamental buying (as opposed to trading).*




Hi prawn, yes I agree money can be made from fundamental buying. It really isn't that hard to say "oh if I buy now I'm going to make money in 5 yrs." Thats what a lot of funnymentalists do and to me you don't need to very smart at all to do that. 

At the moment I could say the markets are very cheap and buy based on the fact they will probably be higher in 5 years time. Anyone could do that. What would happen in those five years though? I could be in a losing investment for 4.5yrs out of the 5. 



> getting a 10% pa return on their initial investment. Remeber that div yeild is diffeent for everyone depending what their buy price is...




Yes dividends are good for people who invest with a blind fold. Returns are measly in comparision to what you can make by trading the trends. In the big blue chips the most 'conservative' organisations/individuals invest in you probably get a max of 5% pa in yields. This is in comparision to making 20% off one trade over a one to two month period. Personally, I know which one I would want, but each to their own and I understand that everyone's situation is different. 

W.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (23 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Using the great man theory to explain Buffett is just a little ridiculous since he publically attributes all his success pretty much to Ben Graham and Phil Fisher, who he says he learnt everything from (80%/20%) and both those guys have investment records similar to Buffett...

So all of a sudden we have 2 or 3 great individuals (just to name three) who apparently are complete exceptions and we should not try to learn from....cause they are freaks.......even though their methods are as coherent and simple as the sun coming up in the morning....and they've published them!

I can tell you, on paper, I have lost a truckload of money as the market index reduced by over 50% in last year or so......!!!!!......and I've been buying and selling right through it

I have one stock, for example, whose earnings have stayed still, I bought massively at 4X earnings and it recently traded round 2X earnings.....I had a 50% loss..hehe

What am I meant to do......give up massive franked dividend yields and growth prospects, tax advantages........just cause some idiots think our civilisation is going down the toilet...or whatever the reason

Just on FLT, it's funny you mentioned $19 cause that's round when I did start lightly acquiring it again........in the past I owned it around between $9-$32


----------



## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Finally entered this today. Probably should have waited a bit to see how this flu thing pans out, but im happy at these prices


----------



## persistentone (27 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Using the great man theory to explain Buffett is just a little ridiculous since he publically attributes all his success pretty much to Ben Graham and Phil Fisher, who he says he learnt everything from (80%/20%) and both those guys have investment records similar to Buffett...
> 
> So all of a sudden we have 2 or 3 great individuals (just to name three) who apparently are complete exceptions and we should not try to learn from....cause they are freaks.......even though their methods are as coherent and simple as the sun coming up in the morning....and they've published them!
> 
> ...




Which company did you buy whose stock is showing a Price/Earnings ratio of 2?!   Maybe we can help you push that one up a little?


----------



## wonderrman (27 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Sorry I missed the last few post and have busy the last few days. 

I'm not going to argue against you Rainmaker as I really can't be stuffed. I will highlight one thing though that you said.



> just *cause some idiots *think our civilisation is going down the toilet...or whatever the reason




Those collective group of 'idiots' is the market. The market is irrational and you've got to adapt to it. There is no point fighting it, you won't win in the near term if you buy "low", as the past 12 months has proved. As they say, why catch a falling knife? 



> I have one stock, for example, whose earnings have stayed still, I bought massively at 4X earnings and it recently traded round 2X earnings.....I had a 50% loss..hehe




As I said, markets are irrational. PE's, yields mean nothing! Why would you hold onto a 50% loss when you could make it a 2%, then simply buy it again on the upswing? To me it just seems illogical that you would hold a loss and keep buying more of a loss. Buy high and sell higher, not buy low and sell high. It never works for the average person, unless you want to wait years and years. Anyone could make money that way.


----------



## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Wonder,

Why dont you start yet another TA vs FA, short term vs long term thread, where you can argue till the cows come home.

You have admitted that everyone has their own strategy so why not leave it at that. For a young person you certainly seem to think that your method is by far the best and that everyone should do as you do. Why not just accept that everyone has different goals and ways to reach those goals.


----------



## wonderrman (27 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Wonder,
> 
> Why dont you start yet another TA vs FA, short term vs long term thread, where you can argue till the cows come home.




I'm simply responding to the questions and comments been put to me. Just stating the facts as well mate. 



> For a young person you certainly seem to think that your method is by far the best and that everyone should do as you do.




Can't you remember, I'm now 50 years old and very rich so my comments do not cloud the judgements of other readers because of the "age" issue.


----------



## prawn_86 (29 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Its really being having a crack at the 5.60 resistance lately but no clear break as yet. Yesterday and monday the price dropped as low as about 5.25 but was soaked up to close in the 5.40's both days which is a good sign.

This is a long term investment for me but of course im still evaluating all the time


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (30 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT is up 8% today...........its reported they are selling their melbourne office building for a loss.........and the FLU epidemic has just been raised by WHO to 5 out of maximum 6.....

Can someone please explain this one to me slowly?


----------



## JTLP (30 April 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> FLT is up 8% today...........its reported they are selling their melbourne office building for a loss.........and the FLU epidemic has just been raised by WHO to 5 out of maximum 6.....
> 
> Can someone please explain this one to me slowly?




Don't know about sale of office building in Melbourne

BUT
Here is a pretty good explanation:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Says it applies to Avian Flu but covers Pandemic Influenza Phases


----------



## prawn_86 (1 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

From a TA point of view the support at $5.40 held well and now $6.50ish needs to be broken to confirm the next leg up.

Cant attach a chart sorry cause im not at home as my home comp has died


----------



## ROE (4 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> From a TA point of view the support at $5.40 held well and now $6.50ish needs to be broken to confirm the next leg up.
> 
> Cant attach a chart sorry cause im not at home as my home comp has died




When are you getting on board, you didn't buy when its 8 bucks, you didn't buy when it's $4 and you don't buy now  when  ? maybe at $10 hehehehe


----------



## prawn_86 (4 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Finally entered this today. Probably should have waited a bit to see how this flu thing pans out, but im happy at these prices






ROE said:


> When are you getting on board, you didn't buy when its 8 bucks, you didn't buy when it's $4 and you don't buy now  when  ? maybe at $10 hehehehe




Already bought old son. Got my fill at $5.43.

Now is the dilemma of do i set a trailling stop and turn it into a mid term trade or do i hold for years as i originally planned (providing im happy with the co progress obviously)


----------



## ROE (4 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Already bought old son. Got my fill at $5.43.
> 
> Now is the dilemma of do i set a trailling stop and turn it into a mid term trade or do i hold for years as i originally planned (providing im happy with the co progress obviously)





Sorry dude  I speak too soon ...hope you do well ... I have friend short the stock at $6 exit at $6.22 at a lost in past days .. I told him when I long he shouldn't short


----------



## prawn_86 (4 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> Sorry dude  I speak too soon ...hope you do well ... I have friend short the stock at $6 exit at $6.22 at a lost in past days .. I told him when I long he shouldn't short




If it can clear the $6.50 barrier that will signal a decent move upwards imo.

Any proper chartists out there care to give their thoughts?


----------



## gohawks (5 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> If it can clear the $6.50 barrier that will signal a decent move upwards imo.
> 
> Any proper chartists out there care to give their thoughts?




Well we surged past that mark today. Obviously a good sign but anyone care to enlighten me on what this means from a T/A point of view? What is the next price barrier etc?


----------



## prawn_86 (5 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



gohawks said:


> Well we surged past that mark today. Obviously a good sign but anyone care to enlighten me on what this means from a T/A point of view? What is the next price barrier etc?




It will need to close above 6.50 to be sure of the break. Nothing is a given in todays market, as its dropping back quickly.

My amatuer TA suggest 7.50 as the next resistance if the break through 6.50 holds


----------



## persistentone (5 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> It will need to close above 6.50 to be sure of the break. Nothing is a given in todays market, as its dropping back quickly.
> 
> My amatuer TA suggest 7.50 as the next resistance if the break through 6.50 holds




If this is really a months-long bear market rally where the market is trying to project a real recovery six months out, then we could see FLT come back to test the support around AUD $15.75.    That would be nice.


----------



## wonderrman (5 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I attach a 6 month chart. There is still some choppy resistence between $8 and $10. There is negative divergence there though but this could be void if the market continues to remain bullish. The stock should countinue to rise as money returns to the lower end of the market.







I think there a more better technical stocks out there, especially the ones that are mentioned in the potential break out thread because most mentioned don't have a lot of overhanging resistence. 

Wonder.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Another strong day. Up 2.2%, on average volume, closing very close to its daily high. This confirms the break of $6.50 as being genuine and hopefully it can close above $7 tomorrow


----------



## prawn_86 (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Up again on another down day, testing the $7.50 resistance, but i would be very surprised if it broke that today.

It has certainly been on a stellar run of late. The did a pres to mac bank yesterday and in it htey stated that their US businesses should be profitable by years end, which would be nice.


----------



## gohawks (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Up again on another down day, testing the $7.50 resistance, but i would be very surprised if it broke that today.
> 
> It has certainly been on a stellar run of late. The did a pres to mac bank yesterday and in it htey stated that their US businesses should be profitable by years end, which would be nice.




Signs looking good at the moment prawn, happy days! 

A close over $7 seems likely which would be another step in the right direction.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



gohawks said:


> Signs looking good at the moment prawn, happy days!
> 
> A close over $7 seems likely which would be another step in the right direction.




It closed above $7 yesterday, so i dont think thats a problem. Would be amazing if it could break $7.50 today and close above it. Unlikely though...


----------



## persistentone (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Up again on another down day, testing the $7.50 resistance, but i would be very surprised if it broke that today.
> 
> It has certainly been on a stellar run of late. The did a pres to mac bank yesterday and in it htey stated that their US businesses should be profitable by years end, which would be nice.




Where did you get the presentation to Mac bank, or any summary about that?

There was a lot of selling when the stock got to $7.50, and it barely deflected the momentum.   We might actually get a close about $7.50 by Friday.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> Where did you get the presentation to Mac bank, or any summary about that?




Check the latest announcement FLT made, either via your broker or the ASX announcements section. Its just a simple powerpoint pres.


----------



## gohawks (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> It closed above $7 yesterday, so i dont think thats a problem. Would be amazing if it could break $7.50 today and close above it. Unlikely though...




Whoops didn't realise we closed over $7 yesterday, things looking mighty promising for a close over $7.50 as I type this we are on $7.62 with the day just about over!!!


----------



## ROE (8 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> It closed above $7 yesterday, so i dont think thats a problem. Would be amazing if it could break $7.50 today and close above it. Unlikely though...




Still under intrinsic value at $7.50  ....

Uncle Walter Schloss a friend of Uncle Warren Buffett once said when you buy something cheap enough, some good may happen to it and I bought FLT cheap and waiting for something good happen to it  and dont forget the 9 cents dividends between the dog to the darling status


----------



## prawn_86 (27 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Flight Centre is now trying to increase its stake in the market, by not offering products/flights from airlines such as Singapore Airlines, as Singapore Air tries to undercut Flight Centre on their own website.

"These poor economic times give us a chance to get at and punish those carriers (only one or two) who are trying to undercut us on the web thus costing us in price beats," Mr Turner (Flight Centre CEO) said. 

Interesting to see that they are flexing their muscle, i wonder what the airlines response will be.


----------



## ROE (27 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Flight Centre is now trying to increase its stake in the market, by not offering products/flights from airlines such as Singapore Airlines, as Singapore Air tries to undercut Flight Centre on their own website.
> 
> "These poor economic times give us a chance to get at and punish those carriers (only one or two) who are trying to undercut us on the web thus costing us in price beats," Mr Turner (Flight Centre CEO) said.
> 
> Interesting to see that they are flexing their muscle, i wonder what the airlines response will be.




Swine flu got me a bit worry with FLT, fundamentally FLT is top but I cant control nature  so I sold out at $7.50 for a decent profit.. I get back when they have a vaccine for Swine and it is contained and stop spreading.

and I like FLT taking a stand against Singapore and Qantas Airline, and I think they are likely to succeed than not.. Large Retail present is a power house you don't want to mess with, they can cut off your blood line by not 
selling your products.

Look what Woolies and Coles do to suppliers   play nice with us or we squeeze your ass...but we squeeze your ass anyway to give us even better price


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (27 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I can't get myself to sell any, even most of my stock acquired less than half this price...........

June is cyclically the worst month for the stock market with the turnover driven by tax considerations........with FLT, just have to be so careful as how quick the cycle can turn.......probably will turn in next two weeks I'm offline at Kakadu..hehe....

I think they should stick it to the airlines......absolutely stick it to them....all they want to do is offer their customers the same price the airlines are.......in a rational market, the airlines can't survive doing that.......and there is no worse time for the airlines to try brinkmanship with FLT than now.......I suspect FLT is growing market share significantly which could really hurt an airline not playing ball


----------



## oldblue (27 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> Look what Woolies and Coles do to suppliers  play nice with us or we squeeze your ass...but we squeeze your ass anyway to give us even better price




But the suppliers to Woolies and Coles don't have the same capacity to sell direct to the consumer that the airlines have!
FLT is an impressive business, best in its class for over the counter deals but it's only one of a growing number of outlets for the growing business of on-line travel bookings.


----------



## ROE (27 May 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> I can't get myself to sell any, even most of my stock acquired less than half this price...........
> 
> June is cyclically the worst month for the stock market with the turnover driven by tax considerations........with FLT, just have to be so careful as how quick the cycle can turn.......probably will turn in next two weeks I'm offline at Kakadu..hehe....
> 
> I think they should stick it to the airlines......absolutely stick it to them....all they want to do is offer their customers the same price the airlines are.......in a rational market, the airlines can't survive doing that.......and there is no worse time for the airlines to try brinkmanship with FLT than now.......I suspect FLT is growing market share significantly which could really hurt an airline not playing ball




Yeah I know, I umm and ahh for 3 days before I bite the bullet and decided to sell, Even then I say if I cant sell at $7.50 I'm holding on but
the stock reach $7.50 today and done deal.....

I did a fair bit of research about Swine flu and it's outbreak it could potentially restrict travel significantly so I thought I better safe guards my capital and lock in the profit rather than hang on and could get be in for a rough ride ... I prepare to buy back in at $8 when everything has gone away and they have a vaccine for it 

Money from FLT will go to other stocks on my list


----------



## prawn_86 (2 June 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Intraday break above $8 looks promising. If it can hold and close above that I would suggest a technical target of around $10.

For a mid cap stock this is fairly illiquid with management and instos holding the majority.


----------



## ROE (2 June 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

good stuff, wish you and rain maker make a killing out of this stocks 
remember buy stuff under their intrinsic value it usually pay off big time.

what I lost in FLT is purely on the unknown swine flu which I can not quantify and I am happy to forgo all profit just on that.

I can quantify recession, unemployment, internet threat you name and
I have no fear with these stuff.

Things I cant quantify I consider it to be a high risk
High risk to me is not equate to high return like some crab financial jingle people use
High risk to me is capital lost and low return or no return 

To me buying stocks is not a risk if I can quantify variables I taken into account and I believe my Great Uncle Warren would think the same way.

thankfully I have a handful of stocks that trades below its intrinsic values
and now Mr market about to correct that decision 

CCP amazing perform just as well or exceed FLT but but I didn't expect it to go any where near that level just yet...the beauty of under expectation  is there such a word under expectation? ..just me rambling hahaha.


----------



## oldblue (2 June 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I can quantify recession, unemployment, internet threat you name and
I have no fear with these stuff.
QUOTE.

I wish I could!

To me, the swine flu "threat" is a bit of a furphy with respect to its impact on the market and will go the way of Y2K, bird flu etc in due course.
On the other hand, the world-wide recession and its flow-on effects is unquantifiable and is having its ongoing impact.
Any estimate of its likely depth and duration?


----------



## ROE (3 June 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



oldblue said:


> I can quantify recession, unemployment, internet threat you name and
> I have no fear with these stuff.
> QUOTE.
> 
> ...




That where I'm different from other people 

Well I cant put a number to it doesn't mean someone else cant...I just cant,  If stuff I don't understand I rather not get involve until I can 

When has doubt the safest course of action is stay on the side line 

There are people who make money out of counting card beating the casino and there are traders that make lot of money trading stocks.

I know my limitation and If I cant do it ..I don't want to get involve
doesn't matter what everyone else think or do.

you can quantify the swine flu good luck


----------



## gohawks (11 June 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Intraday break above $8 looks promising. If it can hold and close above that I would suggest a technical target of around $10.
> 
> For a mid cap stock this is fairly illiquid with management and instos holding the majority.




Been some fantastic gains in the last few days and it looks like we are closing in on $10 fast! 

My average buy price was $5.669 so I'm certainly enjoying the ride.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (11 June 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Just back from the holiday of my life up at Kakadu.....booked of course through my pals at Student Flights (a FLT company)..............and I note that FLT shares have advanced enough to pay for a couple of holidays.......this is certainly the most buyant June in the market i can remember


----------



## fureien (27 July 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

wow flt is doing really great.

i have a watchlist consisting of my "wouldve been" long term holds based upon stocks i researched during march/april. flt of course being one of them.

that dream portfolio has grown about 20% (individually some performed significantly better than others) and the stupid thing is i only actually invested in one or two of them while putting most of my money in speculative short term stuff. in short i wouldve made more money doing a buy and hold on long term stocks than hypergrowth stuff.

certainly kicking myself now.

congrats on those who believed in flt.


----------



## prawn_86 (27 July 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I sold down just over half my initial holding about a month ago at $9.12, and am now free carried with the rest of my parcel.

If i was looking to get in again today would probably be a good signal, as it has been consolidating in a range for the last month and has now broked through its previous 6 month high


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (27 July 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I think this is a crucial annual report coming for FLT..........if they can demonstrate an actual turnaround in US business..............then dollars could be added to value...$15 quickly is not out of question...otherwise its downski

I think the most likely event is "uncertain" US outlook and a share price going back to 8$............but really, any type of good news in US could pay good dividends......

speaking of dividend, come in spinner!


----------



## wonderrman (27 July 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> I think this is a crucial annual report coming for FLT..........if they can demonstrate an actual turnaround in US business..............then dollars could be added to value...$15 quickly is not out of question...otherwise its downski
> 
> I think the most likely event is "uncertain" US outlook and a share price going back to 8$............but really, any type of good news in US could pay good dividends......
> 
> speaking of dividend, come in spinner!




Do you know the date of release for the annual report? could not find it anywhere on the website.

cheers, W.


----------



## ROE (27 July 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> I think this is a crucial annual report coming for FLT..........if they can demonstrate an actual turnaround in US business..............then dollars could be added to value...$15 quickly is not out of question...otherwise its downski
> 
> I think the most likely event is "uncertain" US outlook and a share price going back to 8$............but really, any type of good news in US could pay good dividends......
> 
> speaking of dividend, come in spinner!




Never fear ... Balance sheet is more important than short term news..that why I buy on short term fear with good long term balance sheet ..Always pay off that way.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (28 July 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Agree ROE about fundamentals, its just my biggest holding now so its price performance sets the tone on how I invest the rest of the portfolio......especially the speculative stuff........in a perfect world the price should not matter but for portfolio planning it does at least in short term....


----------



## prawn_86 (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Results update out. Things seemingly on track, however no div to be paid:



> Consequently, FLT's Board has elected to continue with its strategy of preserving cash for the future and does not currently expect to declare a final dividend for 2008/09. FLT’s Board is committed to delivering strong shareholder returns and intends to restore its policy of returning 50-60% of net profit after tax to shareholders, as soon as it is reasonable to do so.




Market sure liked it. Up 14% at the moment.

Holding a free carried parcel.


----------



## persistentone (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Results update out. Things seemingly on track, however no div to be paid:
> 
> Market sure liked it. Up 14% at the moment.
> 
> Holding a free carried parcel.




What's the logic in no dividend if they are on target to projected earnings and stabilized the U.S. at at least breakeven?

No dividend makes it sound like they see some hard spots ahead.


----------



## prawn_86 (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> What's the logic in no dividend if they are on target to projected earnings and stabilized the U.S. at at least breakeven?
> 
> No dividend makes it sound like they see some hard spots ahead.




Yeh i agree, somehting seems a bit sus to me.

Last period they cut it to about 20% of earnings, and now nothing, when they say thier policy is still to pay out 50%. Doesnt make sense, i would have thought at least a nominal dividend would keep holders happy.


----------



## oldblue (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> Yeh i agree, somehting seems a bit sus to me.
> 
> Last period they cut it to about 20% of earnings, and now nothing, when they say thier policy is still to pay out 50%. Doesnt make sense, i would have thought at least a nominal dividend would keep holders happy.




Perhaps they're keeping cash for a share buyback? Either for the big holders to sell down without too much effect on the SP or for said big holders to increase their proportionate stake as others sell out.

Or is that just a far-fetched conspiracy theory?



Disc: Not holding.


----------



## ROE (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Settle down  put your feet in Graham Turner Shoe...and I wouldn't pay dividend either...

think like a business owner not some piece of paper

The man deliver you guys record profit in stock price due to his conservative nature and good mangement...

Bull market all around for me this year.


Imagine you own a shop and you go through a bit of a rough time and you know time will get better in a couple years but you dont know what may hold in the short term.

1. you spend your earning (pay out dividend), and if more stormy weather approaching you borrow or issue deep discount share price and dilute existing holder?
is it in your best interest and shareholder interest?

2. you save it just in case more bad news up ahead and you can weather  the storm while your rival get wiped out, you come out twice as strong
 pay a dividend plus a special dividend for short term pain and long term gain  holder.

if you pick 1, go and buy ABS and BNB  they pay out as much as they can, take on as much debt as they can and bloat they are the best guys in business


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Completely agree ROE.

I'm still seething......absolutely ropable about my businesses who have issued capital to the unwashed masses at hefty discounts........I will never forget it, even

I will not, never forgot the stupidity that went on by wankers with no equity interest in the business.......just management interest......public enemy number one: Sgn which apparently never breached a banking covernant and proceeded to issue almost double issued capital at at absurdly low price.....

Please, please, please give me a FLT who will grow from operating cashflow.....if its good enough for Buff, its easily good enough for me


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (11 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

As for the flight result, I'm still waiting on the official release

I found the update to be pretty average news.....albeit not bad............if you can believe it, its very similar guidance as to when the stock was selling at $3.50........nothing much has happened since then..........

As to the share price, I have no idea, no idea at all what the punters are thinking or were thinking at $3.50, which is only 4 months ago, Was it not?

I've never had a stock perform like this one in such quick time and have never made such an amount of money in such a manner.......It's really an insult to working for a living!!!!!

Congratulation to all holders, even if you owned it from $18.......you got a good stock and your in the same boat as management......that seems pretty important in light of the recent crisis (in ethics)


----------



## gohawks (12 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> As for the flight result, I'm still waiting on the official release
> 
> I found the update to be pretty average news.....albeit not bad............if you can believe it, its very similar guidance as to when the stock was selling at $3.50........nothing much has happened since then..........
> 
> ...




Another big rise today currently sitting at $13.030 up 10.4% as I type. 

Certainly enjoying holding in the current climate. Onwards to $15 from here?


----------



## ands (12 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Don't I feel great, sold at $6.50 for a bit over 10% profit could have been over 100%! Congrats to all those who are still holding!


----------



## prawn_86 (12 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



gohawks said:


> Another big rise today currently sitting at $13.030 up 10.4% as I type.
> 
> Certainly enjoying holding in the current climate. Onwards to $15 from here?




I must admit, i am really surprised by this sudden surge.

As Rainmaker said, they have only confirmed what they said 6 months ago, so why did it provide such a boost? The market sure is a strange beast sometimes.

But i dont care, i hold a free carried parcel, which i originally bought at $5.50ish


----------



## Sean K (12 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> But i dont care, i hold a free carried parcel, which i originally bought at $5.50ish



Very nice work Prawn. 

This sort of industry should have responded with any upbeat in sentiment I suppose. 

I'm not sure if the market's been crazy or not. The March low looks crazy in retrospect, this is just putting things back on a more even keel for a bit. Could be overshooting perhaps and we'll undershoot again at a later time perhaps. 

Medium to longer term I am very concerned about the debt accumulation and acceptance of risk creaping back in. 

We've seemed to have fixed the problem with te exact tactics that got us into the problem.

Interest rates staying at 0 have no place in the medium term.


----------



## michael_selway (12 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



prawn_86 said:


> I must admit, i am really surprised by this sudden surge.
> 
> As Rainmaker said, they have only confirmed what they said 6 months ago, so why did it provide such a boost? The market sure is a strange beast sometimes.
> 
> But i dont care, i hold a free carried parcel, which i originally bought at $5.50ish




Hey nice and look at the directeors buying in the 9th Mar09 lows







*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 146.5 65.7 67.0 83.1 
DPS 86.0 13.2 24.0 31.5 *

thx

MS


----------



## snowking (12 August 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

unbelievable is the word for the current SP movements. I had my finger over the enter button to buy at about $4.50 and i didn't. Thought there was too much risk involved and didnt see it getting much about $6-7 a share. Every time I see it go up I think I will buy on a dip in the price but it never goes down enough and the next thing I know its up to $13 a share. 

Can't really complain as since I started buying in March I am up close to 30% overall on my portfolio. However I would have loved to have grabbed a good company at bargain basements prices

I note some people's comments regarding the announcements being the same, i think the key difference is the outlook has improved and there is confidence in the market. When the crisis hit every got out at once, now they are afraid of missing the boat


----------



## Surfer35 (8 October 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Nice break and close above $15 today. Be interesting to see if can move on with it as it seems $17 is the next point on the charge based on old highs. Anyone else been watchin this one?


----------



## McCoy Pauley (23 November 2009)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Probably negligible effect on the share price, but interesting to see that Flight Centre has commenced proceedings in the Supreme Court of Queensland against its former website developer for misleading and deceptive conduct and, I assume, breach of contract (though the article doesn't mention it).

http://www.theage.com.au/technology...sues-web-developer-for-15m-20091123-itvp.html


----------



## persistentone (19 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Can anyone here tell me if Flight Centre trades stock options with a 2011 expiration and strike prices above $25?


----------



## ROE (19 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

To all the doom slayers about the internet threat and people dont travel and the list goes on and on against Flight Centre 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...nger-second-half/story-e6frg95x-1225821269244


----------



## persistentone (19 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> To all the doom slayers about the internet threat and people dont travel and the list goes on and on against Flight Centre
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...nger-second-half/story-e6frg95x-1225821269244




I started buying them at $6 and haven't sold any.   Graham, I don't know you, but I love you. 

Seriously, does anyone know where I can buy a white Flight Centre T-Shirt?


----------



## ROE (19 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> I started buying them at $6 and haven't sold any.   Graham, I don't know you, but I love you.
> 
> Seriously, does anyone know where I can buy a white Flight Centre T-Shirt?




what the hell is FLT T-Shirt ? maybe this make you more money instead of a shirt.

http://www.randomhouse.com.au/Books/Default.aspx?Page=Book&ID=9781740513890

no doubt the doom slayers will come once again sometimes in the future and arm with knowledge few acquires you load up and profit 

There are rock solid business around that are cripple by fears and uncertainty again arm with knowledge few acquires I go on to accumulate  and wait for the fear to be disproved by the financial statement..

and we all love our margin of safety uncle, they are the shaolin kung-fu of this world lot people talk about, very few go through the practice and the training required to be the master of that arts.


----------



## persistentone (19 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I have the book.   I want a T-shirt.     Flight Centre is pretty promotional.   Surely they have one somewhere.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



persistentone said:


> I have the book.   I want a T-shirt.     Flight Centre is pretty promotional.   Surely they have one somewhere.




I have a Flight Centre t-shirt from when my partner used to work for them. Still holding a free carried parcel. Hopefully this latest ann means a div coming up


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (20 January 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

All I can say is I love this stock!!!!!!!

You can always say you wished buying more but 'how many yachts do you need to jetski behind......'

The 'margin of safety' has been used up at current valuations but who cares......there will probably still be one more profit upgrade before end of fiscal........and with ongoing Aussie economy headwinds and rest of world coming back 'online'.....

Who's to say 2011 will not be a record FLT profit

I'm getting feeling this profit season will be one to saviour!


----------



## tminus (13 April 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

seems to be following an Elliot Wave pattern. I am a noob at this, but this was the closet textbook EW pattern I have come across.


----------



## markd9 (14 April 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

What is an Elliot Wave Pattern?  Is this a good sign or a bad sign?  Sorry to ask but have no idea about charting.


----------



## oldblue (14 April 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



markd9 said:


> What is an Elliot Wave Pattern?  Is this a good sign or a bad sign?  Sorry to ask but have no idea about charting.




Elliot Wave theory is based on swings in "mass pyschology".

I know very little about it but would have thought that the time scale in the FLT chart was too short for EW's to be valid.

Happy to be educated in this.


----------



## tminus (15 April 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

My understanding of EW is from Nick Radge's book Adaptive Analysis. He mentions EW are like fractal patterns, smaller EWs are found in bigger EWs. 

As you have stated this time frame is short, and so implications for pattern are relatively short.


----------



## deedeeramone (2 July 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

This has to be the most sobering news for Flight Centre in a while. Imagine if booking a flight becomes as simple and fast as doing a Google search.

Google acquires ITA


----------



## ROE (26 August 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Bad news sell good news get ignore
welcome to triple profit an the return of juicy dividend

this thread was very busy when stormy weather
hit flt it is now sun shine all around
welcome to haiwaii 
it was zimbawai 18 months back


----------



## prawn_86 (14 September 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Up >20% since announcing their results a few weeks ago. Wish i still held some as dividend would be 10% on my initial purchase from last yr, but i made enough out of them


----------



## prawn_86 (18 October 2010)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Flight Centre acquiring a UK based business focusing on thsoe taking years off to travel etc (mainly students between high school and uni). Shows they are willing to move into the online domain, but is it a move away from their core business?


----------



## Russell (4 May 2011)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Just bought shares in Flight Centre. One of my first ever trades (not real money... yet).

Hopefully it was a good decision


----------



## robusta (5 January 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

The price for FLT is looking very attractive to me at the moment. The only thing making me hesitate is the online part of the business, FLT has a conflict between the high street stores (and staff incentives) and pushing their online sales IMO. Does anyone have any thoughts?


----------



## oldblue (5 January 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



robusta said:


> The price for FLT is looking very attractive to me at the moment. The only thing making me hesitate is the online part of the business, FLT has a conflict between the high street stores (and staff incentives) and pushing their online sales IMO. Does anyone have any thoughts?




I'm not sure that "attractive" is the word I'd use. Don't forget that FLT's SP briefly hit around $4 a little less than 3 years ago!

Personally, I'd be waiting for the current downtrend to reverse.


----------



## robusta (5 January 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



oldblue said:


> I'm not sure that "attractive" is the word I'd use. Don't forget that FLT's SP briefly hit around $4 a little less than 3 years ago!
> 
> Personally, I'd be waiting for the current downtrend to reverse.




I agree, I am not looking to buy at the moment but would like to understand the business better when/if my any opportunity presents.


----------



## StevieY (9 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hi Guys,

Have had FLT on my watchlist over about a month now and it seems its doing climbing steadily...and almost hitting 52 week highs

Newbie question but any thoughts on an entry point?

Thanks
Steve


----------



## RottenValue (9 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

$21.60


----------



## tinhat (10 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I had a stop loss trigger at around $19 and never got back in


----------



## notting (10 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



tinhat said:


> I had a stop loss trigger at around $19 and never got back in




Chuck it in SEK to make yourself feel better when it looks to be turning again.


----------



## Boggo (10 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



notting said:


> Chuck it in SEK to make yourself feel better when it looks to be turning again.




Wouldn't mind seeing you elaborate on that statement notting, its at the same price now that it was just over three years ago. Let us in on what you know 

(click to expand)


----------



## notting (10 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Boggo said:


> Wouldn't mind seeing you elaborate on that statement notting, its at the same price now that it was just over three years ago. Let us in on what you know




Unfortunatly I don't know anything, if I did I'd just leave  and pray that you trust me. :star:

In general my sentimental fondness could be based on the fact that these internet retailers are all doing fairly well with minimal overhead risk and capital reqirements and that FLTs performance should not be that much better than SEK, nor should REAs. 
Further, 3 years of consolidation is bound to come out with a nice break at some point and that that is more likely to be up when we start to see a bit of volume coming in on the pos moves.
Also, it has made some pretty good foot holds in Asian markets and could really do quite well if that all works out.
There is a reason that sentiment is relativley weak on SEK which I remember hearing and thinking it was flawed.  
Trouble is I can't remember what that was!!ld:


----------



## tinhat (11 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



notting said:


> Chuck it in SEK to make yourself feel better when it looks to be turning again.




I don't want to hijack the FLT thread but I also held SEK a while ago and got stopped out on that too. Same with WEB and IIN - both have romped it home since then. As someone fairly new to stock market investing over the past couple of years, getting stopped out on these stocks is the hard lesson I have learned about buying with momentum/trend, especially in a sideways market. Buying on fundamental value analysis without regard for the trend is not sufficient. Unless one buys with absolute conviction and is prepared to ride out falls in price buying these stocks without price momentum behind them is only going to do your head in.

As for SEK, since their Brazilian and Mexican acquisitions the balance sheet has lost its luster. They will have to show that they can realize the earnings growth forecasts given it's currently trading on a PE of 21. SEK might be worth a punt if it falls down to around the $6.20 level with a stop at 5.80

There will always be opportunities to buy good stocks if one is patient enough. I think CCL is looking like a good buy on this current pullback (oh that's right, I got stopped out of CCL last year at around $11 too) :nosympath


----------



## RottenValue (11 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Never have understood the psychology behind stop losses - basing a sell decision on a random fluctuation in the stock price seems strange.  

Then again, I don't really buy anything unless I plan to hold for 3-5 years or the story changes dramatically. I guess that makes me more of a medium term fundamental investor.  Been in FLT since April and very happy that I chose to buy more when the price fell in June.  Plenty of growth left in this business in my opinion so in no hurry to sell despite nice paper profit in 6 months.


----------



## oldblue (11 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I think you've answered your own question, RV.

Stop losses are used by traders to protect paper profits. Not at all suitable for longterm fundamental investors who employ  entirely different criteria and mindset. Room for both approaches in the market but take care if trading not to let a bad trade become a longterm hold!


----------



## notting (11 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



tinhat said:


> $6.20 level with a stop at 5.80. CCL is looking like a good buy on this current pullback (oh that's right, I got stopped out of CCL last year at around $11 too):nosympath



Yep.  between 6.20 and 5.80 would be inticing!!
Haven't been looking at CCL.  Will get to know it.


----------



## Boggo (11 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



RottenValue said:


> *Never have understood the psychology behind stop losses* - basing a sell decision on *a random fluctuation* in the stock price seems strange.
> 
> *Then again, I don't really buy anything unless I plan to hold for 3-5 years* or the story changes dramatically.




The reality of your theory applied to SEK.
Since 2007 SEK has paid $0.82 in dividends. In the period 2007 to 2011 inflation has eroded the effective value of $6.42 by $0.83 so you have lost 1c in five years.

The only advantage in that period would be the franking credits if you are in a SMSF etc where you pay 15% tax and in this case its almost irrelevant anyway.

I would be looking at actively managing this situation where with a bit of effort you could double your initial outlay 

Just my 

(SEK and FLT - click to expand)


----------



## RottenValue (12 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Not sure how we got to talking about SEK in the FLT thread as I never mentioned it.  As it turns out I do happen to own a small parcel (2000 shares) of SEK but only since 25 July 2012 when it was on offer at $5.93.  No stop loss   - and happy to buy more if price comes back to around $6 anytime soon.


----------



## Boggo (12 November 2012)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



RottenValue said:


> Not sure how we got to talking about SEK in the FLT thread as I never mentioned it.




Read all of the recent posts and it will appear


----------



## JTLP (2 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Onwards and upwards for this badboy...all the way to a high of $40 today!

Profit upgrade certainly helped...can't help but think that I looked at this at $30 and thought how lovely it looked...ahh well!

2 questions:
1 - Am I right in assuming that this may suffer some sort of pullback if the AUD was to weaken? I'm assuming they are doing so well on their AUS market due to the high dollar.

2 - Who hold and when did you enter/intend to exit?

Personally I find their consultants useless but hey they must be doing something right!


----------



## InCasinoOut (2 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

The thing i find hard to understand is that people still buy holidays in a retail shop? 

I was surprised when i saw these shops here about 10 years ago, wondering how a retail holiday shop still traded. Just like the video store and the CD shop. I assumed in a few years they would all be gone but they are still here, and now i am intersted in shares i still find it puzzling. I've never met anyone who bought a holiday from a retail store, don't think i would even consider it. Most people buy some flights and book a hotel, it's very easy and cheaper. 

They are doing very well so i must not know much about normal people. Guess they can just sell the stores and move onto the web?


----------



## VSntchr (2 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



InCasinoOut said:


> The thing i find hard to understand is that people still buy holidays in a retail shop?
> 
> I was surprised when i saw these shops here about 10 years ago, wondering how a retail holiday shop still traded. Just like the video store and the CD shop. I assumed in a few years they would all be gone but they are still here, and now i am intersted in shares i still find it puzzling. I've never met anyone who bought a holiday from a retail store, don't think i would even consider it. Most people buy some flights and book a hotel, it's very easy and cheaper.
> 
> They are doing very well so i must not know much about normal people. Guess they can just sell the stores and move onto the web?




Maybe you don't know anyone that has booked long o/seas trips?

Out of my friends that have gone on Euro/America trips 100% of them have involved a travel agent in some way - including myself.


----------



## Huskar (2 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



VSntchr said:


> Maybe you don't know anyone that has booked long o/seas trips?
> 
> Out of my friends that have gone on Euro/America trips 100% of them have involved a travel agent in some way - including myself.




I agree. Went o/s recently and a travel agent actually saved me money because they found me a better way of connecting through. All the online booking places usually charge a hidden commission anyways it's just that you can see it when a travel agent does it so you want to try and bypass them. If I really wanted to get it cheap I probably could have with lots of trawling around etc etc but I am prepared to pay $90 on a $1500 trip to save the hassle and waste of time.

My 

Of course that experience didn't keep me holding onto FLT - I sold at 27!


----------



## ROE (2 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



InCasinoOut said:


> The thing i find hard to understand is that people still buy holidays in a retail shop?
> 
> I was surprised when i saw these shops here about 10 years ago, wondering how a retail holiday shop still traded. Just like the video store and the CD shop. I assumed in a few years they would all be gone but they are still here, and now i am intersted in shares i still find it puzzling. I've never met anyone who bought a holiday from a retail store, don't think i would even consider it. Most people buy some flights and book a hotel, it's very easy and cheaper.
> 
> They are doing very well so i must not know much about normal people. Guess they can just sell the stores and move onto the web?




The sort of comments people make when they have no idea about the business model.

No one eats dominos pizza because it's unhealthy or people now more health aware..hit DMP
same argument use for RFG  but RFG got an extra one...coffee is the first thing people stop drinking
when they short of cash 

Australia High Dollar stop students come to study in Australia hit NVT

Debt collectors are dodgy people or when economy going well no one has debt hit CCP

No one rent stuff because it just so much more expensive than buy hit TGA

Qantas national brand, well recognised everyone got to fly these day buy QAN


----------



## Huskar (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> The sort of comments people make when they have no idea about the business model.
> 
> No one eats dominos pizza because it's unhealthy or people now more health aware..hit DMP
> same argument use for RFG  but RFG got an extra one...coffee is the first thing people stop drinking
> ...




Spot on ROE. 

Understanding a business model is a vital but elusive input into any longer-term investment decision.


----------



## McLovin (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well, especially when the internet was designed for things like travel (one big searchable database). I guess like most things as complexity and price increases people still like having someone to talk to. $10k on a holiday <> as buying a $50 shirt on line. Most people would probably still find organising a three week holiday daunting (working out times/schedules/hotels etc) and a lot of people just can't be bothered, so they go to a travel agent. Plus, they grey nomads love doing tours and places like FLT certainly offer plenty of those.


----------



## InCasinoOut (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Yes all very valid comments. I would invest in Flight Centre because the numbers don't lie. But i would rather invest in DMP because i know ppl eat pizza more and more, i see them do it. I might go into a store to book my next holiday to see how it works, and to educate myself.


----------



## Superb Parrot (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



McLovin said:


> I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well........




I designed a European holiday in Europe for the two of us. It was too complex for me to arrange alone but by providing the ideas, FLT filled in the details. It was like a conversation, both of us made mistakes but these were corrected and it was a great trip. Costs were trimmed down in the planning.
To me this to me is great FLT territory, person to person, design your own itinerary and shun pre-digested overpriced journeys.


----------



## McLovin (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Superb Parrot said:


> I designed a European holiday in Europe for the two of us. It was too complex for me to arrange alone but by providing the ideas, FLT filled in the details. It was like a conversation, both of us made mistakes but these were corrected and it was a great trip. Costs were trimmed down in the planning.
> To me this to me is great FLT territory, person to person, design your own itinerary and shun pre-digested overpriced journeys.




Yeah that's what I thought. I guess I travel enough that I'm pretty comfortable organising all my own stuff but can certainly appreciate why people like having someone else handle the logistics.

I do wonder though if people use FLT for domestic travel as much as for OS travel. The corollary being what happens when/if the AUD falls and international travel isn't as cheap as it currently is?


----------



## matty77 (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



McLovin said:


> I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well, especially when the internet was designed for things like travel (one big searchable database). I guess like most things as complexity and price increases people still like having someone to talk to. $10k on a holiday <> as buying a $50 shirt on line. Most people would probably still find organising a three week holiday daunting (working out times/schedules/hotels etc) and a lot of people just can't be bothered, so they go to a travel agent. Plus, they grey nomads love doing tours and places like FLT certainly offer plenty of those.




I think you need to look at what customers they are getting though, also it depends on what country you are going  for, if you have connecting flights, Visas required etc.

I have just been to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur for 2 weeks and did it all online by myself with the wife and 2 kids and had no issues at all. But if I was going to China I would do it through a travel agent just to make sure if anything goes wrong I can put it back on the travel agent.

I think you will find most people over 50 use a travel agent still now days, the younger generation tend to just book it themselves - hell last time I went to Thailand I booked 2 nights out of 14 and worked the last 12 nights out when I got there!   (Just dont tell immigration that or they will reject you lol)

So my point is - they do still play a role depending on what location you are going to and the difficulty of that location, and if you want peace of mind and not have to worry that things have been missed.

The good thing about this business is it wouldnt be hard for them to shed some of the staff if needed and still have a good 100% online business.

I do not hold.


----------



## Ves (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



ROE said:


> ...coffee is the first thing people stop drinking
> when they short of cash



Didn't someone use that argument to Buffett regarding Coca Cola back in the 80s? I'm sure it was in one of his speeches.   Some of his ideas about the Coke purchase are fantastic lessons, with thinking models than can be translated into other ideas.


----------



## JTLP (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



McLovin said:


> Yeah that's what I thought. I guess I travel enough that I'm pretty comfortable organising all my own stuff but can certainly appreciate why people like having someone else handle the logistics.
> 
> I do wonder though if people use FLT for domestic travel as much as for OS travel. The corollary being what happens when/if the AUD falls and international travel isn't as cheap as it currently is?




My point/question before. When/if the AUD falls - will their international travel earnings be affected adversely? I would imagine so; the allure for a lot of people (especially young people) is a strong AUD all round.


----------



## tinhat (3 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



McLovin said:


> I am surprised that the bricks and mortar stores still do so well, especially when the internet was designed for things like travel (one big searchable database). I guess like most things as complexity and price increases people still like having someone to talk to. $10k on a holiday <> as buying a $50 shirt on line. Most people would probably still find organising a three week holiday daunting (working out times/schedules/hotels etc) and a lot of people just can't be bothered, so they go to a travel agent. Plus, they grey nomads love doing tours and places like FLT certainly offer plenty of those.




You've got to think about who are a big segment of the market - the Grey Nomads as you mention. My mum is one and is about to head off on an overseas trip with another grey nomad friend of hers. Now some people amongst that group (and probably younger) would still want to do everything through a travel agent, but my mum and her friend are quite good at researching and finding deals online. Here is the clincher though - they are terrified at paying for anything online. They don't have the smarts to be confident that they are handing over their credit card details online to a legitimate business versus someone dodgy. They are scared of paying online unless it is through their internet banking. At the end of the day, I am the one that goes over everything, does a bit more googling to find if there is any better deal, vets everything and then I actually do all the online ordering for her using her credit card details. She is too scared of making a mistake or getting scammed.

You may have heard recently about the scammers who are hijacking the emails of legitimate accommodation providers and then posing as the legitimate business owner, taking incoming enquiries and orders and defrauding the customer of their money. They get the customer to pay by internet transfer and it is impossible to recover the money. The customer turns up to their destination and only then do they (and the accommodation provider) become aware of the fraud. A young Aussie bride was on the tele only a couple of weeks ago. She had booked a villa in Bali for her entire bridal party and it was only when they turned up and someone else was staying at the villa that they found out the had been scammed.


----------



## clowboy (4 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



tinhat said:


> You've got to think about who are a big segment of the market - the Grey Nomads as you mention. My mum is one and is about to head off on an overseas trip with another grey nomad friend of hers. Now some people amongst that group (and probably younger) would still want to do everything through a travel agent, but my mum and her friend are quite good at researching and finding deals online. Here is the clincher though - they are terrified at paying for anything online. They don't have the smarts to be confident that they are handing over their credit card details online to a legitimate business versus someone dodgy. They are scared of paying online unless it is through their internet banking. At the end of the day, I am the one that goes over everything, does a bit more googling to find if there is any better deal, vets everything and then I actually do all the online ordering for her using her credit card details. She is too scared of making a mistake or getting scammed.
> 
> You may have heard recently about the scammers who are hijacking the emails of legitimate accommodation providers and then posing as the legitimate business owner, taking incoming enquiries and orders and defrauding the customer of their money. They get the customer to pay by internet transfer and it is impossible to recover the money. The customer turns up to their destination and only then do they (and the accommodation provider) become aware of the fraud. A young Aussie bride was on the tele only a couple of weeks ago. She had booked a villa in Bali for her entire bridal party and it was only when they turned up and someone else was staying at the villa that they found out the had been scammed.




And the last part of this post is why flight centre is so sucessful.   I think people struggle to understand flight centre.  flight centre is your bunnings of the travel industry.  Since FLT came into existence margins on all travel bookings have been squeezed enormosly.

FLT offers several different things to the market, business, full service and budget.  People who think they will have to pay  more using their service are wrong.  FLT policy is too beat any available offer, that means, if u research your holiday as so many say they are good at, you will pay less at FLT.  Often they may mean that if your trip is going to cost you say $3000 you will only save $1 by taking it to flight centre (but the other bonuses are much better), but I personally booked a client his $3000 accomodation package to Malaysia and saved him $1000 on the best price he could get himself (on a price beat).

The bigger advantage to booking with FLT (ie if you only save a $) is you eliminate risk, for example turning up to your wedding and having no were for 100? guests to stay.  Fraud, not getting what you paid for, your booking disapearing or you simply making a mistake can cost $100's - 1000's of dollars.

Two examples, my parents booked through an agent and when there accomodation and tour did not match thier booking they had to fork out an extra $800 for 2 nights accomodation - all reimbursed by the agent.

I also ad a client that took his family to bali and there was an error in his booking (through the airlines onseller) where by his flight was the day before he expected to come home.  The mistake cost $12,000 on a $15,000 holiday, again covered and again, he didnt have to do anything to fix it.

Anyway, no Idea if this stock is a buy or not and no longer work for them, but just think it is relevant to point out that the internet will not kill their business.

cheers


----------



## McLovin (4 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



clowboy said:


> An FLT policy is too beat any available offer, that means, if u research your holiday as so many say they are good at, you will pay less at FLT.




I once went to Tripoli. While I was there, I discovered that I could buy a return ticket in first class on Qantas, via London for $1,800 (the Colonel used to subsidise all ex-Tripoli airfares). Could FLT have beaten that?


----------



## VSntchr (5 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



JTLP said:


> My point/question before. When/if the AUD falls - will their international travel earnings be affected adversely? I would imagine so; the allure for a lot of people (especially young people) is a strong AUD all round.




FLT have said that the AUD is not the reason behind their strong performance. They believe that travellers scope their remaining spending around the dollar strength. I.e. they will have more left over to spend if dollar is strong, and will have to skimp more if it is weak...but they do not believe it is the sole factor for people travelling.
How true this is in reality is up for your own interpretation.


----------



## fiftyeight (5 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

My first chance to contribute something (although only small), instead of being a leacher and only asking questions.

I know of someone who recently started working for FLT and I said to watch out as they will be going through tough times soon. I now think although margins are being squeezed they are in no danger.

The "Price Beat Policy" actually means that the consultants end up working to try and find a better to deal so they can ear the commish. The online sites are using the same wholesalers as far as I can gather. 

Simple trips yes I agree are easier online, but the amount of young people who still want the added security/(not insurance, but if a hotel has f*cked your booking, its nice to have a 24 hour number to call) does not appear to be falling.

No idea about the share price as it has been on the charge, but I dont think the net will be the death of FLT as I first assumed.

Fiftyeight


----------



## Clansman (6 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

How does the internet adversely affect their business model?
Spend hours scouting the internet looking for the best deal and they beat it anyway.
They even beat the specials the airlines offer when opening new routes.
Can't lose.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

People need to also remember that FLT gets a discount from virtually all airlines, which enables them to offer a price beat.

There was a time 4 or 5 years ago when FLT refused to sell Singapore Air (if i remember correctly) tickets due to the fact that Sing Air stopped giving them the discount, meaning they were losing money on price beats


----------



## mreversion (6 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

I'm shorting this sucker. Tread with extreme caution because in my view this is the most highly leveraged company on the ASX. 

Whatever happens to Flight Centre in the near term, this stock is in for a major major correction to the downside eventually. 

Why?: 

1. The obvious and usual criticism of this company (it will lose out to online competitors that will chip at its margins, whilst FLT continues to pay salaries and store costs). This is going to ring true eventually and is just a matter of timing. It hasn't happened over the last decade, but unless we can explain why it should be cheaper, quicker or more desirable to have a person standing in between a customer and an airline then in the long run it just will not make any sense.
2. The second plank of that criticism is that because there is little value-add in the off-line model for most of their bookings (about 70% are just simple domestic flights), the company is subject to huge online competition from other travel aggregation websites or the airlines themselves.
3. The airlines are still haemorrhaging huge amounts of money. It's not going to be long before they figure that they would be better off with FLT's commission in their own pockets. 
4. Flight Centre has been successful in negotiating lower priced fares with the airlines to now. Those margins are now relatively well established and assuming they can't continue to negotiate better deals with airlines that are already losing money on half of their flights then risk is either neutral or to the downside if the airlines take back some ground. 
5. The ACCC is suing FLT for anti-competitive behaviour that picks up the gist of the pricing issues above. The principle - ultimately, consumers should not be forced to pay a third-party commission to FLT to get the same ticket that they shoould be able to buy at the same price or for less directly off the airline. Whilst the ACCC is historically very unsuccessful in running proceedings like this, the fact that this behaviour is on the radar is a huge concern. Read: ACCC wins and FLT (along with a whole heap of other similar commission- based industries) tanks or the ACCC lose and then promote legislation to curb this anti-competitive behaviour.
6. The climate has been ripe for FLT but the macro outlook is significantly worsening, particularly in Australia where over 2/3 of the EBIT is made. A lower AUD, rising unemployment level, tighter corporate belt and pressured housing market leading to reduced discretionary spending are all but given and could all independently hurt FLT.
7. Updated profit increase is about $15 - $25m in EBIT. That's say $10 - $15m after tax and interest (and the company's market cap is up about $500m?). 
8. The updated profit increase announcement had far more worrying concerns that only highlight what has been said above, noting weakness in a number of different markets, with increased leisure travel accounting for the increased margin. They've been spared this time but probably won't be if any of the matters in point 6 above kick in (noting that corporate tightening is already acknowledged - but wait and see what happens when companies get serious about this, if I were a betting man then I'd imagine that a serious reduction in FIFO workers for instance would probably put a bit of dint in the 30% take that FLT take from corporate travel now). But I recommend actually reading the details of the profit upgrade, the headline figure is good, the rest is pretty bad. 
9. FLT are trying to replicate their company around the world. In many of these markets they are only just in front of breaking even, in some cases with huge revenue risk. Check out page 13 of the half-yearly reports. India has a margin of about 1.5% or $2.2m on $152 in revenue. New Zealand has a margin of about 0.6% or $2.1m on $298m in revenue. The US made a loss. All of this before tax. Whilst it makes sense to expand as there are no growth options in Australia, there is no reason to expect that what has worked well in Australia will work well around the rest of the world. At best it may offset declining Australian EBIT at worse it will be executed poorly and could create serious risk for the company.
10. Insiders hold huge holdings of the stock. Unless they want to hold on and risk losing their paper net worth (which is now in the billions) like they did in the GFC when the company went sub-$5 then they can only realise by selling down or orchestrating a buy out with some stupid company at such inflated prices (the latter is always a possibility).
11. If you seriously look at the dividend, we're talking at best $1.50 on next years earnings (assuming a massive hike in dividends) on a $40 company. You can buy the bloody banks today (at their peak) with much better yield than that (noting they have their own massive issues too).
12. And finally, the company has run a ridiculous course. Every day it trades up and down 5% on hardly any volume. That's the reason for the price run not the fundamental economics of the company.

On any value assessment it is now wildly overvalued and at the very least ready for a serious correction. It has a PE of around 20 (dividend of around 3%), earning you less at current prices (let alone higher prices) than a bank account. It has gone up 1200% since its GFC lows. It has had a great run, but if you buy this stock now then the upside is probably the magic $45 this thread is talking about (at which prices the yield is about 2.5%. The downside is far far worse.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Strong first post is strong!


----------



## ROE (6 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Hard to predict what happen to FLT, some of the point you raise look valid but FLT been down this path before
they have a spat with Singapore airlines sometimes ago and refuse to move when singpare want to cut its commission... FLT took Singapore airline off their prefer list of airline and all ticket sale go to someone else... Singapore airline lost this battle with massive loss of ticket sale...

FLT in travel is Coles and Woolies in Retail...they have massive buying power, they can dictate their term
you can go up against them but you may get a bleeding nose...

As long as Uncle Graham Turner running the ship, he's not an easy man to step over ...he knows his travel stuff and he know his market like a back of his hand..and to prove this, sometimes ago a small IT company won the work to do improve FLT system, they promise
X but couldn't deliver X, so FLT not messing around, he kick this lot out, not paying them, want all the money back he paid them up to that point not only that Uncle Graham Sue them for lost productivity  I think they went bankrupt that IT firm


----------



## RottenValue (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Picked this up back in April 2012 so have been a very happy holder - other than wishing I had of been more committed and picked up more than 1000 shares.  Anyway, cant sneeze at 100% return in a year.

Great company but my view of expected return at a price of $40 is only about 3% pa so hard to justify continuing to hold. Another good stock that has got way ahead of itself so looking to offload half my holding today.


----------



## VSntchr (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



RottenValue said:


> Picked this up back in April 2012 so have been a very happy holder - other than wishing I had of been more committed and picked up more than 1000 shares.  Anyway, cant sneeze at 100% return in a year.
> 
> Great company but my view of expected return at a price of $40 is only about 3% pa so hard to justify continuing to hold. Another good stock that has got way ahead of itself so looking to offload half my holding today.




Seems like a lot of people in this thread think that FLT has "run too hard" or "got ahead of itself".

What is this based on? Purely the fact that it has been rising?
FWIW, I think its around fair value now...wouldn't call it overly expensive. That said, I wouldnt be suprised to see it go back to ~$20 within 6 months :


----------



## Klogg (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



VSntchr said:


> Seems like a lot of people in this thread think that FLT has "run too hard" or "got ahead of itself".
> 
> What is this based on? Purely the fact that it has been rising?
> FWIW, I think its around fair value now...wouldn't call it overly expensive. That said, I wouldnt be suprised to see it go back to ~$20 within 6 months :




From my limited knowledge of FLT, I'll add this:

It's at a P/E or around 19 from memory, with a long-run average of 15 for the market (not sure what the current P/E of the market is at).
If you believe what's mentioned around the AUD and their revenues, then you start to think the company has a big risk around currency which is not reflective of it's P/E.
(Not that this metric says everything, but it's a very basic way of looking at it).

Then again, many stocks are in this category at the moment (DMP, BRG as examples).


----------



## VSntchr (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



Klogg said:


> From my limited knowledge of FLT, I'll add this:
> 
> It's at a P/E or around 19 from memory, with a long-run average of 15 for the market (not sure what the current P/E of the market is at).
> If you believe what's mentioned around the AUD and their revenues, then you start to think the company has a big risk around currency which is not reflective of it's P/E.
> ...




As I mentioned a few posts ago, Graham Turner has explained that FLT do not believe their strong AUS results are solely due to a strong dollar.
They believe that travel demand is independant of the currency and it is not the travel itself that changes as a result of the dollar - but the remaining spending money. Of course it then becomes your judgement to ascertain to what extent you believe this is true. But as ROE has pointed out, the man at the helm of FLT is no dummy - and his business accumen has seen FLT come a very long way thus far...

As for the foreign operations, yes I agree there is big revenue risk. But on the otherhand it could be viewed that a large portion of fixed costs are in place - and *IF* management can deliver growth, it will hit the bottom line very nicely. So the revenue risk works both ways - the main takeaway in my view is just to keep a close eye on progress


----------



## mreversion (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Value snatcher - _'Seems like a lot of people in this thread think that FLT has "run too hard" or "got ahead of itself". What is this based on? Purely the fact that it has been rising?"_

I think the better question is why it is not overvalued. In answer to your question: 

- PE of 20 - that would be fine if this were a technology or biotech stock, but if it's the woolworths of travel then I don't think I should be paying 20x earnings for something that is giving me a 3% dividend. 
- Well over all time highs (give me 5 other stocks that are 25% above their pre-GFC highs).
- Market cap is over $4bn now. So every percentage increase in its stock price means the current and future earnings need to support an extra $40m in market cap. So when the company goes up 5% in one day because the company has announced, a profit upgrade of $10 - $15m (after tax and interest) (that is also peppered with caveats about the overseas businesses) then I really need to question whether I should be paying that extra $200m for the company when I buy stock in it, especially after it's already rallied over 1000%.
- Even Turner has accepted that ticket prices are the lowest they have ever been (ie, the top of the cycle for FLT). You can find him toting this in quite a few articles. 
- As for the AUD, FLT have continually said that they won't be affected by a lower AUD, presumably because revenue will be offset by the other offices around the rest of the world. I agree that it will be pretty interesting to see what happens, but there are a few points that shouldn't be missed here. 1. There is no doubt that currency affects willingness to travel (the ABS travel departure figures have consistently recorded record travel numbers at the Aussie dollars' high levels). 2. Even the RBA and Federal Government have accepted our currency is overvalued. 3. Two thirds of revenue come from Australia and the higher commissions on international travel with the airlines also comes from Australia. 4. Whereas the AUD has increased against nearly every currency, the same is not true of other currencies. For instance, it is now cheaper for other countries to travel to, for instance, Japan or Europe than it pretty much ever has been before. Therefore, a weakening AUD will just mean it is cheaper to travel to Australia, not necessarily the rest of the world. But it will definitely mean it is more expensive for Aussies to travel to the rest of the world, which is a massive flaw in the FLT analysis.
- FLT is more than ever vulnerable to a downturn in business because its cost base has steadily grown as it has expanded. This is the real crux of the online/offline debate because an online business has little in overheads and salaries whereas the blended business model has to pay for rent, salaries, etc even when the bad times come around. So if it is fair to say that FLT is at the top of the cycle then the cyclical downturns will hurt more. 
- I thought that it would be interesting to also point out that FLT is now about 1/2 the value of Expedia in market cap. And on a USD equivalent basis closing in on 2/3.

Value snatcher, at what price would FLT become overvalued for you if it isn't now? And why?


----------



## VSntchr (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



> Value snatcher, at what price would FLT become overvalued for you if it isn't now? And why?





It may be marginally overvalued, however, I would not be calling it expensive. Happy to continue holding for now.

If you want further comments on this feel free to PM me


----------



## mreversion (7 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

FLT up a 5% from its daily lows, the RBA rate cut seemingly being the turning factor.  

Assuming the banks pass the rate cut through in full (which on current policy is a huge assumption) there's about $46 a month extra to spend for a person with a mortgage of $300,000. Which is more than offset by the fall in the dollar if you're using your extra $46 a month to book that flight overseas.


----------



## RottenValue (8 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*



VSntchr said:


> Seems like a lot of people in this thread think that FLT has "run too hard" or "got ahead of itself".
> 
> What is this based on? Purely the fact that it has been rising?
> FWIW, I think its around fair value now...wouldn't call it overly expensive. That said, I wouldnt be suprised to see it go back to ~$20 within 6 months :




FLT has had steady sales, EPS and DPS growth (if you ignore 2009) over the last 5-10 years at around 10-11% per year.  A very strong performance and the company has a strong balance sheet and a business model that is clearly working.

However, paying 20 times earnings for this seems over the top, given the business on balance is more likely to reduce growth going forward than increase markedly.  FLT was a bargain below $20 (thank you Greece!) and in my opinion fair value at around $30.


----------



## mreversion (8 May 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Thank you Rotten Value! Looks like people are assuming that management will deliver on every promise plus more, which on historical performance is fair and completely understandable. In my view, the business, expansion and macro risks are simply not factored in. 

That said, noting that 2007 PE's got up to around the 25 mark for industrials then I wouldn't be surprises if this continues to run for a bit. 

Definitely looks like the Macquarie presentation the other day has gotten a few fund managers involved, which you would expect will be a boon for the stock. Nothing like a bit of jaw boning at one of those things to encourage some fund managers to squander away your super on an overvalued stock like this. 

As so much is held in house though and the only active substantial holder other than related entities appears to be NAB, it will be really interesting to see if we see the insiders selling out. There's no way that scroo is going to let himself go from seeing his $1 - $2bn on paper get cut into pieces when this falls. In fact, that's the only explanation I can see for the volume selling into this upward push. For once there appears to be some sellers standing behind the stock, albeit in the short term the buying interest appears to be stronger. As a result I expect to continue to see it trade erratically in the short term before taking a step down.


----------



## catfish (27 August 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

Wow, 91c final div! Was anyone lucky enough to get this under $5 in the GFC? Almost a 30pc div yield on purchase price @ $5.

Another solid result. Margin, dividend and profit increases. Npat of 240m up 20pc.

I sold out in the high 20s, regretfully.


----------



## ROE (29 August 2013)

*Re: FLT - Flight Centre*

This is a Frick of a Business, nothing like it on the ASX in its market cap range 
but there are some on the way there 

Nothing stir people up more than planes, travel and record profit

Flight Centre Kill the Internet Star?


----------



## System (10 November 2013)

On November 6th, 2013, Flight Centre Limited changed its named to Flight Centre Travel Group Limited.


----------



## DocK (9 December 2013)

I'm sitting on a nice profit in FLT, having bought some in Dec '12 @ $26.00, and I'm wondering if I should take my profits and run.  They've taken a whack recently with the ACCC ruling against them on an old price-fixing case.  I'd appreciate any fundamentalist's opinions on whether they feel this ruling will have any long-term effect, or whether they feel that the share price will recover.  There doesn't seem to be any reason that profits in the future should be materially affected?


----------



## ROE (9 December 2013)

DocK said:


> I'm sitting on a nice profit in FLT, having bought some in Dec '12 @ $26.00, and I'm wondering if I should take my profits and run.  They've taken a whack recently with the ACCC ruling against them on an old price-fixing case.  I'd appreciate any fundamentalist's opinions on whether they feel this ruling will have any long-term effect, or whether they feel that the share price will recover.  There doesn't seem to be any reason that profits in the future should be materially affected?




If it is just Australia no worry ACCC is fairly toothless but if that to happen in the US that going to be
a different story  could this spread to other part of the world? no idea


----------



## VSntchr (26 February 2014)

Result looks good again.

TTV growth helped a little by FX. Tracking slightly ahead of guidance but not upgrade at this stage..the big run up from $44 looks like it was people taking advantage of the drop and subsequently hoping for a good report...so perhaps a bit of selling the fact today..

The US is a bit of a concern with an EBIT loss of 7.5m, that is the seasonally slower half...but presentation indicates the severe weather does not bode well for H2.

Overall a pretty resilient business IMO and the interim divvy has been raised to 55c.


----------



## VSntchr (28 March 2014)

Court case with the ACCC update today with FLT having to pay an $11m fine. They are still going to appeal it in the 2014/15 year....but I think this is more to do with saving face than worrying about the $11m?

Either way, the outcome is pretty good for FLT and it removes the uncertainty of having a court case hanging over the company.

I was half expecting an upgrade for the FY to go with this announcement, given that the FY guidance at time of the HY report looked pretty conservative..but as yet they are sticking with original guidance.


----------



## skc (28 March 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Court case with the ACCC update today with FLT having to pay an $11m fine. They are still going to appeal it in the 2014/15 year....but I think this is more to do with saving face than worrying about the $11m?




It's not about the $11m or saving face. It's about ACCC telling them how they can and cannot operate as an agent going forward.

I only had a quick look at the case and I am no lawyer, but it wasn't black and white to me. If I was a distributor of anything, I should have the right to ask the product manufacturer (i.e. the airlines) to give me access to the same deal that everyone else can get. I might not have the authority to tell the product manufacturer not to undercut me, but I should at least have the right to say that I will stop selling your products if you keep doing it.


----------



## VSntchr (28 March 2014)

skc said:


> I only had a quick look at the case and I am no lawyer, but it wasn't black and white to me. If I was a distributor of anything, I should have the right to ask the product manufacturer (i.e. the airlines) to give me access to the same deal that everyone else can get. I might not have the authority to tell the product manufacturer not to undercut me, but I should at least have the right to say that I will stop selling your products if you keep doing it.




Agree. 
Looks like it really comes down to if FLT can convince the court that they are an agent of the airlines as compared to a competitor. Pretty hard to do that when you have flight centre exec's calling the airline's "foes", lol...but they maintain the stance as an agent relationship.

As they have stated that they are in full compliance with what is now being argued, would the reversing of the decision enable them to go back to the old-school? i.e. do you see potential for upside in this case?


----------



## skc (28 March 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Agree.
> Looks like it really comes down to if FLT can convince the court that they are an agent of the airlines as compared to a competitor. Pretty hard to do that when you have flight centre exec's calling the airline's "foes", lol...but they maintain the stance as an agent relationship.




Really? That's an argument?! Who doesn't call FLT a travel agency? ACCC really barks up the wrong tree sometimes. 



VSntchr said:


> As they have stated that they are in full compliance with what is now being argued, would the reversing of the decision enable them to go back to the old-school? i.e. do you see potential for upside in this case?




I don't know FLT to that level of detail and sensitivity. The case was pretty old (for conducts all the way back in 2005) so chances are, whatever they have been doing in the last 5-8 years with the airline will probably remain the status quo...


----------



## tinhat (28 March 2014)

skc said:


> Really? That's an argument?! Who doesn't call FLT a travel agency? ACCC really barks up the wrong tree sometimes.




In the tourism industry both companies like FLT and airlines do have quite a bit of overlap as tourism operators in that they package holidays and tours that include flights, accommodation, car hire, etc. FLT started out as a tour operator. I don't know to what degree the domestic airlines are integrated with hotels and resorts these days but Ansett use to own a few resorts in the old days.


----------



## fiftyeight (3 July 2014)

I am back up in the NT, not sure if it made news elsewhere but "a travel agent" is under criminal investigation for ripping off a travel scheme run by the government. The only travel agent up here really is FLT.

Is the kind of news that you could use to short FLT or would this have been priced in well before it made it to the news?


----------



## McCoy Pauley (18 December 2014)

FLT announced a profit downgrade this morning and the share price has tanked, down ~9%. FLT originally forecast PBT of $395-$405 million for the current financial year, and they now expect to achieve underlying PBT of between $360-$390 million, compared to underlying PBT of $376.5 million in the previous financial year.

FLT blames soft leisure travel sales growth in Australia as a result of depressed consumer confidence thanks to the failure of the Commonwealth budget to pass into law and increased wage, occupancy and sales and marketing costs as a result of altered front-end pay structures to stimulate business. FLT states that the corporate travel market remains stable.

FLT appears not to blame the falling Australian dollar.


----------



## Boggo (18 December 2014)

McCoy Pauley said:


> FLT announced a profit downgrade this morning and the share price has tanked, down ~9%. *FLT originally forecast* PBT of $395-$405 million for the current financial year, and they now expect to achieve underlying PBT of between $360-$390 million, compared to underlying PBT of $376.5 million in the previous financial year.




Theory above and reality below 
The writing was on the wall back in June !

(click to expand)


----------



## Ves (18 December 2014)

Boggo said:


> Theory above and reality below
> The writing was on the wall back in June !



If only trading / investing was as easy as marking up charts 6 months after the fact,   we'd be all rich.

I'd actually call it *theory* once it's already happened.


----------



## Boggo (18 December 2014)

Ves said:


> I'd actually call it *theory* once it's already happened.




I guess those who hang on would, apparently over 90% of 'investors' do


----------



## Ves (18 December 2014)

Boggo said:


> I guess those who hang on would, apparently over 90% of 'investors' do



Do you have any facts to back this assertion up or is this just something you decided to make up?


----------



## Boggo (18 December 2014)

Ves said:


> Do you have any facts to back this assertion up or is this just something you decided to make up?




Nah, its just a *theory*


----------



## Ves (19 January 2015)

Don't hold and haven't held this one before.

But FLT at an EBIT/EV of 8-9x  is  fairly interesting,  because future returns are not pegged as much to the "blue sky" overseas expansion as they are defending the current earnings base from growing competition.

Historically the key FLT's success was developing and leveraging their strong brand name by rapidly expanding their footprint (store network) with very little capital requirements.   They have always been known as the place to go to for low cost airfares in Australia and as their operational scale has grown,  so has their bargaining power over the airlines.  FLT is better at selling travel to their clients than the airlines are direct,  and have used this power to obtain better prices from the carriers themselves.

I don't believe that there is a high correlation to the "high AUD" (against the USD) as a lot of experts / analysts seem to believe.  Australians love travelling and will spend money on it when they have it.   The rapid growth of overseas travel in Australia  (we have been a net importer of travel since the late 1990s)  has been fuelled,  not by the high AUD,  but by international airfares becoming much, much cheaper than they were at any point in history over the last 15-20 years.  The expansion in the capacity of both airports and airlines in Australia and technological improvements have greatly helped this.

The big threat to FLT's empire as commonly identified is the internet,  which is undeniably taking a bigger share of the travel pie each year.  Perhaps it is telling that FLT is the only "bricks and mortar" travel agent that has held up: so far. They are still the market leader in all forms of travel sale in Australia,  I believe it is about 9% share in 2014.

The internet threat is on two overlapping fronts: internet travel reseller sites and the Do-It-Yourself research and booking trend.   

Internet operators have a much lower cost base,  but at the moment lack the same "customer experience" / "knowledge base" / "personalised advice regime" of a trained travel agent  (at least for now,  I do understand that data-mining and data personalisation are rapidly developing).    A lot of the advantage that a travel agent has is the fact that a lot people prefer to seek guidance in decisions that are important to them or would like as much of the hard work done for them as possible (human nature).   The internet does provide a lot of good information,   but due to its fragmented,  disorganised nature,  can be inaccessible to a lot of users.

Flight Centre does also have the brand name,   and the customer buy-in in Australia,  to continue developing and promoting their own digital interfaces to compete in both the "on demand" internet booking space and the bricks and mortar segment.  But their competition is fairly stiff from some of the very large global internet travel sites (although I do believe there is room for both bricks and mortar and internet operators in the market and will continue to be into the long-term). 

I believe that the market is now starting to factor some of the structural changes that the industry faces into the share price.  I am still undecided on whether it has priced "too much" of these in at this point.

Does anyone else have any thoughts?  Or even an alternative view on different themes would be appreciated.


----------



## shouldaindex (26 January 2015)

Gets valued pretty cheap by the market.  Less than 12 EV/NPAT.

Has all the metrics you look for, growing ROE, Margin, EPS, with best balance sheet in the ASX100.

Qualitative threats are online competitors and plateau of outbound travel.


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## notting (26 January 2015)

Wondering how much  exposure they had to fly in fly out truck and digger driver madness in the mining sector.
You'd think that will pretty quickly become a historical head shake in the rear vision mirror.
Though the margins are smaller there was a fair bit of it!
According to the boss the outbound travel gig isn't as dependent on high or low Aus $ as most punters imagine.
A little hard to believe and I believe that's where the big bucks are.
The local stuff doesn't pay as well so an increase in Chinamen visiting the Kakadu on the cheap Aus $ may not be enough. 
But like you say if that's all not a problem the metrics seem fundamentally attractive.
Has it bottomed and is it time to go long?  Soon to be decided!


----------



## leyy (29 January 2015)

I think FLT has bottomed out.

They say the australian leisure travel market has reduced, but the macroeconomic environment is leading towards more travel for australians.

- All time low interest rates with potential for another rate cut in February 2015 (more discretionary income as lower interest payments for home owners)
- Low fuel costs, cheaper fuel costs for vehicles, domestic travel and we are starting to see a reduction in fuel surcharges amongst airlines (virgin and qantas). Airline tickets are now so competitive and much cheaper than 20 years ago.
- Low AUD, yes it is more expensive now to travel overseas. However this means consumers will travel more domestic to say QLD/Gold coast. This also means its cheaper for overseas tourists to travel to australia.

All in all, IMO FLT will increase from here.

They have started increasing the revenues from UK/US and with the low AUD this will assist with FX spreads.

Also, they have potential to move into other travel/OTA/accommodation markets internationally.


cheers


----------



## Ves (30 January 2015)

Hi leyy

I think there are two sides to heavily reduced airfares (due to increased competition and lower fuel costs).

Historically lower prices have meant that outbound travel from Australia has increased substantially.   Will this continue?  How close are we to critical mass? If there is low capacity growth,  or no capacity growth in the medium term what does this do to earnings?

Does it also mean that FLT requires more transactions to maintain the same TTV?   The big question,  and yes they have been able to do this historically,  is will capacity grow in the Australian market,  and will FLT be able to win business vs.  competitors and maintain the same margins? What are the risks to earnings if they cannot?

I am also concerned re: earnings cycle.  Are the current earnings near the peak?  I think there is some chance that their earnings are heavily tied to discretionary spending,  rather than the AUD.

I don't know the answer to these questions.... but I feel they are important.


----------



## notting (14 February 2015)

Pretty intriguing that FLT had a negative day on one of the best breakout confirmation days ASX has ever had, this side of the GFC.  Up 2.3%  FLT down .08% after having risen with the market to start with.
Seems to be saying somethings wrong.
Markets up over 5% in 10 days with financials and airlines and retail all up.
Yet FLT down 3%


----------



## notting (23 June 2015)

> Corporate travel results have generally been reasonable, although the downturn in the resources sector has again affected performance in Western Australia and the Australian corporate travel market as a whole




Fly in and out to drive a truck?  Nope.  That was never gonna last!


----------



## notting (25 June 2015)

Landing gear appears to have been deployed.


----------



## VSntchr (25 June 2015)

notting said:


> View attachment 63137
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Agree. Have been trading this every day this week...today the dynamics started to shift a bit. Might still test the ~$32 support but perhaps not with the sudden ferociousness that was coming over the past few days..


----------



## skc (24 May 2016)

McCoy Pauley said:


> FLT announced a profit downgrade this morning and the share price has tanked




Starting to sound like a broker record now... FLT has another downgrade yesterday - I think it's the 3rd since Dec 2014 (puntuated by one upgrade in Sept 2015). What makes this one worse is that:

- FLT only re-confirmed guidance 2 weeks ago in the Macquarie Conference (albeit with the proviso that meeting guidance would not be a formality).

- FLT cited external factors (e.g. Oz election, Britexit poll) impacting the results. These echo those expressed by QAN and VAH, but not CVO, WEB and CTD.

- FLT also mentioned further investments.

So it appears that FLT, at a minimum, is having less visibility in earning forecasts. Given that FLT has a relatively high fixed cost base (being largely a traditional travel agent), any operational deleverage could play out quickly.

It's not that expensive on fundamental measures (PE ~12.5-13 times) and has a clean balance sheet... but PBT has gone backwards for 3 years in a row (FY14 $376m, FY15 $363m, FY16 $354m). 

Early warning sign of it's business model? Or a mere transition period before the next phase of growth?


----------



## McLovin (24 May 2016)

skc said:


> Starting to sound like a broker record now... FLT has another downgrade yesterday - I think it's the 3rd since Dec 2014 (puntuated by one upgrade in Sept 2015). What makes this one worse is that:
> 
> - FLT only re-confirmed guidance 2 weeks ago in the Macquarie Conference (albeit with the proviso that meeting guidance would not be a formality).
> 
> ...




HLO also upgraded their TTV forecast for the year a couple of weeks ago. That's a company that has gone through a pretty substantial rebranding/online update, and recently merged with AOT.

I reckon it's too early to call the end – it takes a long time to turn a big ship – but I've been pretty impressed that the model has held up as well as it has. I just wonder how well margins will hold up over the long term, and whether those margins will be able to sustain the large shopfront business. I don't think it's a leap of faith to think there will be some rationalisation of shops. 

WEB is being pretty brave giving b2b segment EBITDA forecast out to 2017, I think. The market won't like if it pulls up short. I think this is a really tough industry to be in. Lots of consolidation going on too, which usually means no one has a clear competitive advantage.


----------



## VSntchr (24 May 2016)

skc said:


> - FLT cited external factors (e.g. Oz election, Britexit poll) impacting the results. These echo those expressed by QAN and VAH, but not CVO, WEB and *CTD*.



CTD is actually one of the best performers on ASX200 today...not too sure what's going there. Surely some of the factors that are at play for FLT are also weighing on CTD??
Maybe they have enough slack up their sleeves from recent acquisitions to buffer the headwinds.

I am not as familiar with the CTD model, I assume being predominantly 'corporate' that their branch presence is likely much smaller. I see that they have Asia as their biggest TTV contributor, which is one of the only areas that FLT didn't have an excuse for :

FLT is one of the companies that I have in the SMSF, so my thoughts are clearly that the business model is not dead and instead that they are investing for the next leg of growth. Transformation is occurring with a deeper push into the online space along with many other non-online growth investments with it. 
TTV growth is still very solid, so to me it looks as if the model is 'okay' and once they surpass this period of high price deflation that they will be able to grow earnings again.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 May 2016)

Average broker targets (6 of them released yesterday) is 35.19.

Long tail on the daily, currently.

short term res at approx. 34.


----------



## skc (24 May 2016)

McLovin said:


> HLO also upgraded their TTV forecast for the year a couple of weeks ago. That's a company that has gone through a pretty substantial rebranding/online update, and recently merged with AOT.





VSntchr said:


> CTD is actually one of the best performers on ASX200 today...not too sure what's going there. Surely some of the factors that are at play for FLT are also weighing on CTD??




That's the thing.... airlines are reporting weaknesses so that's what FLT is also saying. But other travel agencies (WEB, CTD, HLO) has not been impacted like FLT. It doesn't feel like a structural issue (yet), especially given the timing of change in guidance - it's unlikely that a structural issue suddenly rear its head over a 2 week period causing the guidance to change. 

But I do think FLT is losing some of it's competitive advantage. Initially, the business is about products and distributions. They have access to flights and holiday packages in physical shops all over town... it's the first port of call if you are going for a holiday. Obviously the internet these days mean neither of these are the trump cards that they once were. 

So what else is left? I'd say it has plenty of brand equity and decent services, and the physical presence is still important for certain customer segments. It is still the largest out there so it should have a scale and hence cost advantage... but while it might get its products cheaper, its distribution cost has to be higher than other pure online models. So it probably doesn't have much competitive advantage in the price sensitive segment.

It probably doesn't have a technological advantage. It's booking site is no better or worse than most other offerings. And they are investing in something called Ask Betty - which sounds incredibly early 2000s.  

My guess is that FLT will continue to decline in its dominance. PBT will ebb and flow as external factors swings about... but overall profitability might continue to fall gradually as its competitive advantages are slowly eroded. May be it can pull something out of the hat, but there'd be a fair bit of self cannabilisation to get there.



VSntchr said:


> I am not as familiar with the CTD model, I assume being predominantly 'corporate' that their branch presence is likely much smaller. I see that they have Asia as their biggest TTV contributor, which is one of the only areas that FLT didn't have an excuse for :




Same here. I hope I knew it better 4 years ago.



skc said:


> Starting to sound like a *broker record *now...




Lol... my mind must be programmed to type trading related words subconsciously...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Average broker targets (6 of them released yesterday) is 35.19.
> 
> Long tail on the daily, currently.
> 
> short term res at approx. 34.




Got out at 33.  Doesn't look like 34 will eventuate at the moment.


----------



## leyy (25 May 2016)

Problem with FLT is they don't have a large online presence, and it is the ignorance of the MD and senior executive team which will see this as their demise unless they can get their act together. 10 years ago bricks and mortars were the way to go to book a holiday see a travel agent. I can't remember the last time i went to a travel agent. yes there will always be a niche market and demand especially for the baby boomers and the elderly. most of the time i walk past a flight centre there is 3-4 staff members and zero customers.

They can't compete with the OTA's (Priceline Group/Booking.com and Expedia/Wotif) FLT are big but not big enough.

They need to look at some acquisitions for online presence whether for flights or hotels.

WEB is purely online presence via B2C and B2B which keeps overheads low and has the ability to grow organically very fast.

I would like to add also that with the competition of the low cost carriers FLT does not sell these fares (jet star, tiger, scoot etc etc) they are losing lots of business.

Margins have not grown also!! they are not big enough to push commissions increase.

For example, OTA commission has grown from 8% to 15% in the last 5-7 years.

Guest where FLT are? they are still sitting at circa 10%.

For what its worth i hold both FLT and WEB.

They need a management shakeup and really focus on internet/mobile and have a strong digital presence otherwise it won't be good news in the next 5-10 years. Especially with all the technology disruptions like Air BNB and metasearch websites like skyscanner and hotelscombined.

my 2c.


----------



## notting (27 June 2016)

Appeared to have a more convincing blow off low today.
Perhaps the algos are interpreting the flight to safety as a boon for flight center.


----------



## skc (6 July 2017)

One year since the last post, and the profit yo-yo of FLT continues. Yesterday it delivered an upgrade (which is actually an upgrade to a downgraded guidance)... the share price however is up around 2 year highs.

For the record, PBT trend is still down year on year, for the 4th year in a row.

FY14 $376m
FY15 $363m (-3.6%)
FY16 $354m (-2.5%)
FY17 $325-330m (-8.1%)

Yes FY17 H2 is looking stronger than pcp... but at PE ~20x for a business that isn't showing much sign of sustained growth, the valuation feels a bit full.

I traded yesterday's announcement with a "sell the news" slant given the share price action leading into it... and the market slapped me silly. Let's see if day 2 makes any difference.


----------



## McLovin (6 July 2017)

skc said:


> One year since the last post, and the profit yo-yo of FLT continues. Yesterday it delivered an upgrade (which is actually an upgrade to a downgraded guidance)... the share price however is up around 2 year highs.
> 
> For the record, PBT trend is still down year on year, for the 4th year in a row.
> 
> ...




I saw that yesterday too, the market reaction was very strange. Given all the geographies they are in, I could understand if the market was ascribing a high valuation to a a segment of the business, but none of them seem to be stand-out, unless I'm missing something. They have about $400m net cash on the balance sheet, but even that doesn't bring the multiple down by much. Weird.

ETA: If you have a look at how fast Expedia, Priceline, Tripadvisor etc are growing they must be taking revenue from FLT.


----------



## fiftyeight (13 July 2018)

Is there a service that charts fundamentals? I want to see how the margins of FLT have changed over time.

I have a few extended friends who work or worked for FLT and the workers seem to be getting sqeeeeeezed


----------



## systematic (13 July 2018)

fiftyeight said:


> Is there a service that charts fundamentals?




Yep, it's call ASF


----------



## fiftyeight (14 July 2018)

systematic said:


> Yep, it's call ASF
> 
> View attachment 88353




Haha LEGEND, are you tracking this for many companies???

So either I am wrong or maybe I am asking the wrong question or both.

My thoughts were that FLT are maintaining profit by squeezing staffing costs. But I guess that would not be reflected in their margins until they reach the point where they cannot squeeze the staff anymore.

A few of the girls I know used to make good coin with the commission structure. Good staff could crack $100k in a good store and good managers in good stores could crack $200k. Great job in their 20s, lots of travel, good culture and much better than most other retail jobs out there.

Most moved have moved on as they were not sales people and were not making the big $$$ but the couple who were making good $$$ as they were good at sales have recently left or are looking to move on. To compete with the online world FLT has capped the commish the agents can charge and changed the structure making it almost impossible for even good agents to make good money.

So for the young people working at FLT for a bit of fun, not much changes and FLT save some staffing costs. But this comes at the expense of now losing some really good sales people.

At some point this has to hurt the business? or are FLT banking on their structure and processes being good enough they can lose these good sales people? If this is the case and maybe it already is, FLT are just resellers competing on price with the online world.

The recent share price rise implies different but being stuck in that game does not sound like a good idea.

I guess one answer could be that FLT have already lost as much market share to online as they are going to and now its about capitalising on what they have left. Again though that seems very dangerous as people become more tech savy.

There is a massive risk from Google Travel (GT) and AI/ML. Planning a holiday will become much easier with the assistance of GT if they really go after it. Enter in some rough dates, sites and/or places and boom GT with the data on you Google already have on you can plan a trip with suggestions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/geoffw...oogle-flights-google-trips-more/#5027e3154d98

Or maybe people just take this info in to FLT to book and Google really dont care where you book as long as  Google is where you do you holiday planning?

Or maybe if people are more price educated on their holiday it places more price pressure on FLT as people will take in their quotes.

Or or or........ guessing the future is hard haha much more pondering on this required


----------



## fiftyeight (22 August 2018)

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-...ping-off-customers-underpaying-staff/10051474

This fits in well with my post above. FLT were charging huge margins whenever they could. The good sales people made good coin and so did FLT by knowing who to target and how to do it.

This is all changing and it has driven the good sales people out. FLT will soon be "price beating" every customer competing with online aggregators


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## Country Lad (23 August 2018)

We will be away for 80 days in Europe, UK and cruises. We did a lot of price checking and quickly eliminated Flight Centre.  Ended up doing most of it ourselves both for price and being more flexible with options.  Most of our friends travelling overseas are organising the trips themselves, particularly with the wide availability of Airbnbs and so much information on the internet.  Maybe that is the way travel arrangements are going in the future to the detriment of the likes of FLT who now need to gouge to make a reasonable profit.


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## fiftyeight (8 September 2018)

Haha, seems like I should of taken a bigger short position. Didnt want to get in front of the freight train and all that  good money management stuff.

Probs going to short again as this business model is dead. Any bad news will result in declines as recently seen. 

BUT (always a but)

Not sure how much management matters. The management team is rock solid. I have spoken to FLT staff who love "Screw" (Chuck Turner). I have spoken to workers making fark all who stay at FLT for the CHANCE of making it to the Global Party. Screw is a well loved all round good guy/CEO, I truely hope he knows this, because when he restricts wages and reduces benefits it wont be pretty. 

To me it looks like FLT are the masters (in a good way and I hope they succeed elsewhere) of flogging a dead horse. But at some stage that horse ends up at the glue factory


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## JTLP (9 September 2018)

fiftyeight said:


> Haha, seems like I should of taken a bigger short position. Didnt want to get in front of the freight train and all that  good money management stuff.
> 
> Probs going to short again as this business model is dead. Any bad news will result in declines as recently seen.
> 
> ...




Lol. Get paid poorly and put up with rubbish to hear Pitbull live? Nah. 

https://www.fctravelacademy.com/blog/global-gathering-flight-centre


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## fiftyeight (13 September 2018)

JTLP said:


> Lol. Get paid poorly and put up with rubbish to hear Pitbull live? Nah.
> 
> https://www.fctravelacademy.com/blog/global-gathering-flight-centre




Haha it has worked well for years


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## Miner (26 April 2019)

Hello FLT followers
Any narrative on the price collapse of FLT today ?
There have been many recommendations by so called experts in the market and they have taken hide now. Does it give an opportunity to invest on FLT ? Do not hold FLT  but checking out with current holding on HLO and WEB. Currently HLO is suffering from political turmoils but WEB is looking nice and steady.
Welcome your comments.
Thanks


----------



## Miner (26 April 2019)

Country Lad said:


> We will be away for 80 days in Europe, UK and cruises. We did a lot of price checking and quickly eliminated Flight Centre.  Ended up doing most of it ourselves both for price and being more flexible with options.  Most of our friends travelling overseas are organising the trips themselves, particularly with the wide availability of Airbnbs and so much information on the internet.  Maybe that is the way travel arrangements are going in the future to the detriment of the likes of FLT who now need to gouge to make a reasonable profit.



Around the world in 80 days !


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## greggles (26 April 2019)

Miner said:


> Hello FLT followers
> Any narrative on the price collapse of FLT today ?
> There have been many recommendations by so called experts in the market and they have taken hide now. Does it give an opportunity to invest on FLT ? Do not hold FLT  but checking out with current holding on HLO and WEB. Currently HLO is suffering from political turmoils but WEB is looking nice and steady.
> Welcome your comments.
> Thanks




I wouldn't be going near FLT anytime soon. I think the retail part of the business model isn't as relevant as it once was given how easy it is to book travel online these days. I used Flight Centre quite a bit up until around 2012 but since then I've been booking things online myself and getting better prices.

More competition, lower margins and the slow decline of their Australian-based business, which now accounts for less than 50% of group revenue, will continue to impact FLT in my opinion.


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## Miner (26 April 2019)

greggles said:


> I wouldn't be going near FLT anytime soon. I think the retail part of the business model isn't as relevant as it once was given how easy it is to book travel online these days. I used Flight Centre quite a bit up until around 2012 but since then I've been booking things online myself and getting better prices.
> 
> More competition, lower margins and the slow decline of their Australian-based business, which now accounts for less than 50% of group revenue, will continue to impact FLT in my opinion.



Thanks mate. Good points for sure. HLO offers better value for money to etail customers from my experience. Thks a lot.


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## bigdog (24 July 2019)

Motley reported today

*Flight Centre denies mass store closures.*
The *Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd* (ASX: FLT) share price will be on watch this morning after the company refuted claims that it would close around one-tenth of its stores. According to the AFR, Flight Centre has no plans to close stores despite analysts at Citi believing that it could improve profit margins.






One month chart






219


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## sptrawler (9 October 2019)

More bad news for Flight Centre

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...lobal-unrest-hits-profit-20191009-p52z1j.html


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## bigdog (9 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> More bad news for Flight Centre
> 
> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...lobal-unrest-hits-profit-20191009-p52z1j.html




*It was very bad SP wise down $5.53 or 11.72%*






There were two ASX announcements today
9/10/2019 10:22:00 AM  FCTG Morgans Queensland Conference Slides 
9/10/2019 10:20:10 AM  FCTG Outlines Likely FY20 Trading Patterns (PDF 67.4 KB)


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## bigdog (7 November 2019)

ASX announcements this morning which market did not like

The first four months of FY 2020 have been a challenging period for Flight Centre. This is due to a continuation of the issues and disruptions that significantly impacted its second half results in FY 2019.






FLT 2019 MD's AGM Address and Results Guidance announcement is uploaded









View attachment 98480







277


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## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

Could be one to watch in the short term, there may be some pain for travel agents IMO.


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## Trav. (9 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Could be one to watch in the short term, there may be some pain for travel agents IMO.



@sptrawler I think that you are right plus the cruise companies etc as it appears to be a knock on effect.

Looking at the chart I was surprised to see that the SP wasn't lower so maybe the we have seen the worst and people are now coming to grips with it, but the announcement released on Friday by FLT it did manage to scare away a few people down -2.4%

Support @ $37.59


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## qldfrog (9 February 2020)

Personal case:
Was planning to take a short 5 days holidays o/s for a break after staying home so long preparing for our property sale
Post school holidays..
Well as you can imagine, this is off
So fidji, Webjet or flight center lost a few hundreds...


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## Value Hunter (9 February 2020)

Flight Centre is a business that seems to make most of its profits from middle aged and old people. In another 20 or 30 years when all of today's younger people who all grew up with the internet become the next generation of old or middle aged people nobody is going to visit a store front travel agent any more. It is a business with a limited shelf life. 

I sometimes book through Flight Centre but they hardly make any profit from it. I shop around online and then get Flight Centre to price match. The reason for doing this is if something goes wrong and I have problems, as a customer Flight Centre are relatively easy to deal with and I just deal with one port of call instead various airlines, etc.


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## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

Value Hunter said:


> I sometimes book through Flight Centre but they hardly make any profit from it. I shop around online and then get Flight Centre to price match. The reason for doing this is if something goes wrong and I have problems, as a customer Flight Centre are relatively easy to deal with and I just deal with one port of call instead various airlines, etc.



That is a good point, I tend to book everything myself, but your reasoning is pretty sound, maybe there will be a reconfiguring and consolidation in the industry.


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## galumay (9 February 2020)

Value Hunter said:


> It is a business with a limited shelf life.




I think you will find that part of the business is not their focus anymore, look at what they are doing with the B2B part of the business, thats where the growth and future lies I suspect.

They are pivoting away from the online travel agent model, which as you say has limited utitlity once the boomers drop off the perch.


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## Value Hunter (9 February 2020)

Galumay I think they are a lagging the game in corporate travel. Specialized companies like Corporate travel management and many others are way ahead of them in that space. Besides if all the traditional retail travel agents start like Flight Center decide to get into the corporate travel game then margins in that niche will go down. 

Look they might end up doing okay in the long run given the strong balance sheet and high insider ownership of shares but I would not be confident enough to bet on them.


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## galumay (10 February 2020)

My bad, You are correct VH, I was thinking about WEB and their pivot to the B2B sector. Got my companies mixed up!

(I have no interest in investing in either of them!)


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## finicky (27 February 2020)

I'm going to watch this as well as WEB, SLK and a few other travel related. Long term monthly charts look pretty precarious to me. I'd consider buys if FLT or WEB went into GFC scale corrections.

Not held


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## sptrawler (27 February 2020)

Flight centre get virus hit.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...big-hit-from-coronavirus-20200227-p544uf.html
Flight Centre has cut its full-year profit guidance by 22 per cent, to between $240 million and $300 million, as the coronavirus outbreak crushes travel demand globally.

The travel booking group also cut its interim dividend after delivering a weak set of half-year results on Thursday


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## sptrawler (27 February 2020)

Another article, says NPAT down 74% on prior corresponding period.
https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network275352.html
Flight centre travel group (ASX:FLT) report a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $22.1 million, that’s 74 per cent less than the prior corresponding period.

They have slashed their second-half predictions for underlining before tax profit by up to $70 million over uncertainties from the coronavirus outbreak.

Companies amending their travel policy regarding the coronavirus has impacted Flight Centre particularly during the last three weeks.

Leisure travel patterns have also been increasingly affected recently, with some customers reviewing or reconsidering short-term holiday plans and monitoring the virus’s possible spread to locations outside China and Asia in the future.

They will pay a final dividend of 40 cents.

Shares in Flight centre travel group (ASX:FLT) are trading 0.69 per cent higher at $35.24.


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## finicky (27 February 2020)

Yes and that $240-300m figure is for underlying Profit Before Tax and there is already a significant reduction of the bottom line to that from one off expenses and a large non cash impairment in the value of a UK business. Flight can go through massive corrections and this *might* be setting up for one.


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## fiftyeight (19 March 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> Haha LEGEND, are you tracking this for many companies???
> 
> So either I am wrong or maybe I am asking the wrong question or both.
> 
> ...




Daaaaamn FLT has been smashed. What a missed opportunity....again. Company already in trouble and exposed to a sector that was bound to be hit hard by covid-19.

Bit annoyed at my self for missing a FLT short for a second time.


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## tech/a (19 March 2020)

Must say I’ve been really impressed from a strictly business view point with the way Flight Center and Qantas have responded to these in believable business capitulation.

Their actions will mean there will be companies for their staff to come back to.


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## greggles (31 March 2020)

I'm wondering if things will ever be the same for FLT after this. I suspect the travel industry will take years to recover and many Australians are now more likely to holiday at home rather than travel overseas. The psychological scars from this coronavirus outbreak are going to take a long time to heal.

Add to that the ease of online booking in 2020 and I think that it is inevitable that the role that FLT plays in the travel industry in the future will slowly decline. Essentially the bulk of their revenue comes from commissions from airlines and hotels and other service providers such as tour operators. There is a lot more direct advertising from these kind of companies now and I think the days of package holidays organised by a third party such as FLT now represent a much smaller slice of the travel industry pie than it did say 20 years ago.

Does any here use Flight Centre regularly? I used to use them quite a bit in the 90s and 00s, but since 2010 I haven't used them once.


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## Country Lad (31 March 2020)

greggles said:


> Does any here use Flight Centre regularly? I used to use them quite a bit in the 90s and 00s, but since 2010 I haven't used them once.




Nope, haven't used a travel agent since Europe trip in 1991 and that was the only time - a family business which I had an incentive to use.  Country Lass worked in the aviation industry so we have many opportunities for all sorts of deals not available through travel agents.  A bit cranky that we will not be able to travel for some time.


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## CBerg (31 March 2020)

Family member worked for Hello World and we used her for international travel, nice and easy outsourcing the painful work sometimes.

That said, she was let go by the agency at the start of this month so pretty unfortunate.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 June 2020)

> “The market’s going to be smaller, we’re going to be a lot smaller than we have been”



_G Turner, CEO, Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd

....it's a volume based biz. Can't see any reason to get excited
_


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## Dona Ferentes (20 June 2020)

a tale of three operators / intermediaries, 6 month chart, % drop
FLT : FlightCentre in purple
WEB : Webjet in Blue
HLO : Hello world in red

_A pretty unanimous dumping of all stocks during the early days of the pandemic. Maybe HLO has a larger AUS based travel, tour and accommodation business as it is recovering somewhat??_


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## finicky (31 August 2020)

Wish I had a clue whether this is 'smart money' accumulating.
Not Held

Chart is all data Qtrly periods


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## galumay (31 August 2020)

At some point its cheap, there will be a business there after this passes, it can survive based on its cash reserves and lack of debt. Trick is knowing when to pull the trigger!


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## Value Hunter (31 August 2020)

Galumay Flight Centre will survive no doubt and if it was just a matter of Covid I would say its a buy as some of their smaller competitors going out of business will increase their market share in the brick and mortar travel space. 

But the real issue with a stock like Flight Centre has already been discussed long ago on this thread by us both is that its a structurally challenged business. The brick and mortar shopfront travel business is an outdated business that will gradually die off as the baby boomer generation passes the travel phase of their lives and enters the aged care home phase en mass. 

Even if they manage to successfully pivot most of that business into the online space, it will be lower margin business operating in a more competitive space against more and larger competitors with a more price sensitive customer base as Millennials, etc. are more likely to shop around on Sky Scanner, Expedia, Webjet, Hotels.com, etc and force Flight Centre to price match those prices thus crushing their excess margins that they have been able to earn in the brick and mortar business. And in terms of the Corporate travel segment they have much lower market share and their customers on average are larger and more well informed (corporations, etc), so it won't be easy to try and grow there either. Although some companies like Corporate Travel Management seem to have done well out of the corporate travel space.


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## frugal.rock (6 September 2020)

finicky said:


> Wish I had a clue whether this is 'smart money' accumulating.
> Not Held



Would you think the dumb money is?
Not sure why the smarts would be either... 
Any semblance of pre covid normalised air travel again is a long time away... being physically able to is one thing, the choice and cost to do so is another.
Corporate travel will be unlikely to recover to what it was.
Although, the SP will no doubt go bonkers on any news of international borders opening.


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## sptrawler (6 September 2020)

I wonder if the operators re claim the cancelled fares, then pay them out on an as requested basis. Maybe a lot of people just write it down to experience, or claim it on travel insurance.


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## frugal.rock (6 September 2020)

In a more psitive note,
I hear lost baggage claims are down *99.25%....


(*random source)


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## galumay (6 September 2020)

Value Hunter said:


> Galumay Flight Centre will survive no doubt and if it was just a matter of Covid I would say its a buy as some of their smaller competitors going out of business will increase their market share in the brick and mortar travel space.




Yep, as you say its a structurally challenged business model, I had a very quick look at it and WEB but I would rather have my capital in better quality businesses. There is probably some short term opportunity for the more speculative types in these sort of businesses, if you do your research and pick the right entry they probably will have a rerate at some point.

I think you have to be very careful though, I didn't go in very deep with FLT, but looking at WEB, once you allow for the dilution, price is only off about 30% from highs - thats still very expensive for a mothballed business!


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## fergee (6 September 2020)

galumay said:


> Yep, as you say its a structurally challenged business model, I had a very quick look at it and WEB but I would rather have my capital in better quality businesses. There is probably some short term opportunity for the more speculative types in these sort of businesses, if you do your research and pick the right entry they probably will have a rerate at some point.
> 
> I think you have to be very careful though, I didn't go in very deep with FLT, but looking at WEB, once you allow for the dilution, price is only off about 30% from highs - thats still very expensive for a mothballed business!



Im with you @galumay wouldn't be too keen to play the travel rebound through WEB or FLT, would prefer to get in via the airports currently. AIA etc


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## finicky (6 September 2020)

Sealinks's recovered well so far (SLK)


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## Value Hunter (18 September 2020)

I agree that airport stocks such as Auckland Airport or Sydney Airport are the preffered plays in the travel space but the prices of those two socks are still too high for my liking.


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## fergee (22 September 2020)

Value Hunter said:


> I agree that airport stocks such as Auckland Airport or Sydney Airport are the preffered plays in the travel space but the prices of those two socks are still too high for my liking.



AIA > SYD. SYD has a huge amount of debt and possible competition from a new Sydney airport that's being planned.
Agreed AIA is a bit pricey right now but bought on a correction and added to on the the dips for a 3-5 year holding period should be long enough to see the dividends reinstated and a good increase in share price, there is good value to be had in there imo.


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## bigdog (31 October 2020)

The company’s corporate segment is recovering at a more rapid pace than the leisure sector. This is due to customers meeting the ‘essential services’ criteria, which are related to mining/resources, health/pharma and government industries. 

The company announced it will shut down another 91 stores across Australia. This brings a total of 408 stores closed since the pandemic began, leaving 332 stores to face an uncertain future! 

The travel agency is cashed up but still faces a high cash-burn rate in a zero-revenue environment. 

Also flights in and out Australia are getting closer!


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## bigdog (31 October 2020)

Flight Centre Travel News announced today

➡️ Western Australia is opening on November 14th to Queensland, the Northern Territory, South Australia and Tasmania (pending case numbers).  

➡️ Tasmania already opened up borders to South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland and the ACT on Monday. Opening up to New South Wales on November 6th 🤙

➡️ Whilst Victorian's are still on step three restrictions, they were able to 'get on the beers' as restrictions eased on Wednesday night. Though we know Dan Andrews will be going a little higher up on the shelf today, celebrating his first day off after 120 days straight. Onya Dan!  

     ➡️ Queensland opens to New South Wales on November 3rd, although unlucky Sydneysiders are the exception to this. Stay tuned friends 🤞

   ➡️ We're still eagerly waiting to hear back from Jacinda about visiting our mates across the ditch.


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## galumay (31 October 2020)

Too hard for me.


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## bigdog (23 November 2020)

*NSW-Victoria border reopens.*

*Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd* (ASX: FLT) and *Webjet Limited* (ASX: WEB) shares could be on the rise today after the NSW government announced the opening of its border with Victoria today after being closed for 137 days. This is expected to lead to hundreds of flights between Melbourne and Sydney from this week.


FLT is my top for November


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## samuilk (8 February 2021)

might get some FLT soon - surely price would reach pre crash levels after international travel announced ...


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## galumay (8 February 2021)

You might want to check out the dilution & debt, the business is not the same as pre covid. There are nearly twice as many shares on issue for starters, plus a lot more debt. I guess it depends how many punters look no further than comparing the share price now and the pre covid  share price, given the current market and the flood of inexperienced capital, its quite possible it reaches pre cash levels - as irrational as that would be.


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## samuilk (9 February 2021)

galumay said:


> You might want to check out the dilution & debt, the business is not the same as pre covid. There are nearly twice as many shares on issue for starters, plus a lot more debt. I guess it depends how many punters look no further than comparing the share price now and the pre covid  share price, given the current market and the flood of inexperienced capital, its quite possible it reaches pre cash levels - as irrational as that would be.




Good point, will do further research into this one.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 July 2021)

The Covid challenge continues.  Must be hard being an intermediary in an industry with so much small print. The evolution of ticketing restrictions to offer the lowest price (race to the bottom)  didn't anticipate a pandemic and global disruption.

I just received full refund for tix to Canada. Once the inevitability that travel wouldn't happen for a while sunk in, and extensions were up against consumer law, then the fix fell into place.

Bit of a process, airline notifies refund can happen, FC contact customer, I confirm, they send agreement to airline which releases funds to FC, contact me for details. I fill in and get the $$s.  But it happened quickly and efficiently when it had to.


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## Sean K (3 September 2021)

Some interesting discussion here regarding travel related stocks and what happened after Covid really hit and buy opportunities / future of the companies. The rest of the World seems to have opened / be opening up while we remain in locked up down under land. It's gotta end at some stage and FLT and WEB move back to pre Covid prices at some point. 2-5 year investment?


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## waterbottle (3 September 2021)

Possibly, but that's a gamble on the world returning to what it was like in 2019.
It may, but I think it will be a bumpy ride as governments will try to wrestle rising case loads with stretched public hospitals and the need to curb movement to some degree.


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## qldfrog (3 September 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Possibly, but that's a gamble on the world returning to what it was like in 2019.
> It may, but I think it will be a bumpy ride as governments will try to wrestle rising case loads with stretched public hospitals and the need to curb movement to some degree.



The Reset wants to suppress air travel for the commoners..we will see the effect within 10y imho
carbon tax,flight miles tax, maybe using covid again as a pretext.
Short term play on rebound only


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## Sean K (3 September 2021)

Interesting. I'm going to take a bet that we keep flying as a necessity. I think businesses are still going to have to do face to face and I don't think we're going to zoom our holidays just yet. I reckon a lot of people have travel plans on pause and once they get a green light, it will be off to the races.


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## Dona Ferentes (3 September 2021)

In the middle of the second and third round of lockdowns across Australia and some of its global markets, Flight Centre has decided that that is a good time to invest in a new business, with potential.  Flight Centre expand its corporate travel footprint in Asia by launching a Japanese joint venture next January.

The company told the ASX that it plans to launch its leading FCM travel management business in Japan, the world’s fourth-largest corporate travel market, via a joint venture with Tokyo-based NSF Engagement Corporation.

Flight Centre CEO Graham Turner said Japan was a significant addition to the global FCM network, which now extended to 97 countries through company-owned businesses and licensing agreements with independent local operators.


> “_Japan is a key corporate market because of its size and importance within the global economy as a business hub for multi-national companies_,” Mr Turner told the ASX on Thursday.





> “_By securing an equity position in this crucial market, we will enhance our ability to win new local, regional and multi-national accounts, while also gaining greater control over and enhancing the service we provide to our existing customers with operations in Japan_.”




Mr Turner said he anticipated FCM would become a very significant business and a valuable addition to the company’s Asian network, which also includes businesses in China including SAR Hong Kong, India Singapore and Malaysia.

There seems to be no concerns that the Covid driven lockdowns and working from home trend will restrict this new business. Japanese office workers and corporate executives have not gone home to the same degrees as those in Australia, NZ, the US and much if Europe.


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## Dona Ferentes (5 September 2021)

Flight Centre says its business travel customers now book their trips just under eight days prior to travel, compared with 16.7 days pre-pandemic.

The average business trip has reduced by 1.5 days from 5.8 days to 4.4 days.

“Our customers have also relied more on booking with a person (in addition to our online services) for peace of mind, the latest information and expertise,” GM James Kavanagh said.


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## qldfrog (5 September 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Flight Centre says its business travel customers now book their trips just under eight days prior to travel, compared with 16.7 days pre-pandemic.
> 
> The average business trip has reduced by 1.5 days from 5.8 days to 4.4 days.
> 
> “Our customers have also relied more on booking with a person (in addition to our online services) for peace of mind, the latest information and expertise,” GM James Kavanagh said.



If my experience can be extended,while i always self manage6 trips previously, our let's the f out asap flight will go thru an agent if only to be covered for expected delays, borders locks and exit reentry quotas


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## Sean K (23 September 2021)

Travel is still going to be restricted for some time and people wary of going abroad, but there's also a lot of people who haven't travelled for some time and will be itching to re-start face to face business and take well overdue holidays. Your average punter hasn't spent money on holidays for 2 years. Perhaps FLT will go gang busters post-Covid? I'm betting on it going back to pre-Covid at some stage. After $20, it's straight up to $40.


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## Sean K (27 September 2021)

$20 resistance looks gone. For now. Has had a few good runs since the bottom of the Covid fears with consolidation periods between. Has set a trend of price action.


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## greggles (27 September 2021)

FLT was bound to bounce back once we had COVID vaccines. However, I think the bounce might be getting ahead of itself a little for a couple of reasons.

1. Fear. I think many people will likely never travel overseas again, opting to holiday in Australia instead. COVID-19 has caused deep psychological scars in many that will take years to repair. Many will simply decide to holiday at home, rather than go overseas. The margins on domestic flights are thinner and I think harder to make profitable.

2. Cost. I don't think international travel will be the same again for some time, and while there may be some initial discounts to get people moving again, I don't think travel will ever be as cheap as it was before COVID-19. There will be more screening and additional costs involved. More delays, and more hassles.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next year or two, but outbound and inbound international passenger numbers will take years to recover. I don't think FLT is a good bet now, or in the foreseeable future. But I could be very wrong.


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## Sean K (27 September 2021)

greggles said:


> FLT was bound to bounce back once we had COVID vaccines. However, I think the bounce might be getting ahead of itself a little for a couple of reasons.




I'm betting on the opposite. People are cashed up and jumping out of their skin to book trips asap. I'll buy you a beer when it goes back to pre-Covid sp. 🍻


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## greggles (28 September 2021)

kennas said:


> I'm betting on the opposite. People are cashed up and jumping out of their skin to book trips asap. I'll buy you a beer when it goes back to pre-Covid sp. 🍻




You could well be right. I think FLT will definitely head higher longer term, but short term I think any rally will stall. It's up another 1.6% today so we will see what October brings.


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## Sean K (28 September 2021)

greggles said:


> You could well be right. I think FLT will definitely head higher longer term, but short term I think any rally will stall. It's up another 1.6% today so we will see what October brings.




I've a one year plan. Let's reconvene this discussion on 28 Sep 2022. 

Hopefully there's not a Covid-Xi strain in the mean time.


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## greggles (28 September 2021)

kennas said:


> I've a one year plan. Let's reconvene this discussion on 28 Sep 2022.
> 
> Hopefully there's not a Covid-Xi strain in the mean time.




Fair enough. I think the risks to the international travel sector are higher than almost any other sector; higher than the movie business, commercial property, or any other sector that has suffered greatly as a result of COVID-19. It will recover in time, but it will be a very bumpy ride IMO.

Am happy to reconvene in 12 months and see where we are.


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## Sean K (5 October 2021)

This is going better than expected, thus far. I think yesterday was especially good to Covid / travel related stocks. Punters jumping in thinking that the worst is over. But, who knows what's next. $20 should now be support moving forward and any general market corrections.


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## greggles (6 October 2021)

wiseman said:


> took a hit today.. anyone have some valid ideas why?




Well it could be the fact that it has run up from $14 to $24 in about six weeks entirely on speculation that travel patterns will return to pre-COVID levels in the next 12 months. I think there are a lot of assumptions there that may not pan out. We are not out of woods yet, and international travel is likely to change quite a bit after COVID.

The selling today I would guess is just profit takers cashing out and moving on.


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## greggles (9 October 2021)

wiseman said:


> What do you think the chances are that FLT could possibly go to $70-$80 even $100 a stock, once travel is in full flight again? As Kennas said, everyones cashed up and dying to get on a holiday.




I think it is very, very, very unlikely that FLT will go to those levels. Travel pre-COVID was easy, uncomplicated and cheap. Travel after COVID will be more expensive, and more complicated. There will be vaccination passports, and temperature scans. It is likely that seats in economy will not be as close together on many airlines, meaning prices will rise.



wiseman said:


> It was around the $40-$50 mark in 2019 and that was a time PRE-covid when people took travelling for granted. NOW I feel as if people who didn't even care, nor wanted to go on a holiday, would all be itching out of their skin to travel..




I think more people will holiday at home after COVID, especially the elderly. I can't see any justification for the theory that people will be rushing to travel overseas after COVID. I think people will naturally be more cautious, and travel will take years to pick up to pre-COVID levels.

Also, Flight Centre isn't the only way to book international travel. It is mostly used for packages and corporate travel. I haven't used them since 2002. If you just want a return flight, it's easier (and cheaper) to book on any number of price comparison sites such as Skyscanner.


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## dyna (9 October 2021)

wiseman said:


> would all be itching out of their skin to travel..



Well, maybe not. Heathrow was always a pain for Aussies, but it's far worse now....how about a 4 hour wait to get out of that  hole?


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## galumay (9 October 2021)

wiseman said:


> What do you think the chances are that FLT could possibly go to $70-$80 even $100 a stock, once travel is in full flight again?




Anything is possible I guess, but almost impossible in the case of FLT, dont forget the share count has nearly doubled, so its actually currently priced about the same as it was prior to Covid!! That would terrify me if I were a shareholder. Also debt has exploded to nearly 100% of equity. 

Not somewhere I would want my capital invested. Sure, there is some amount of pent up demand for OS holidays, but its not going back to where it was 3 years ago any time soon, and even then, FLT is not the same company, its barely survived, saddled with debt, exploded share count, all you can really do here is bet on a momentum spike when borders open and take any profits and run. Fundamentally its not an attractive long term proposition.


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## galumay (10 October 2021)

You are missing the point, not us. Simple fact is there are twice as many shares on issue now, as well as massive debt. Its basic maths mate, even if they return to pre-covid total profit, the per share amount is half what it was. Essentially its trading now at a higher price than pre-covid when it was $40.

"Close friends who made a lot of money" is amongst the worst reasons to invest, more than likely they end up with a close friend who lost most of their money.

I don't doubt that there may well be an opportunity for nimble traders to make some profit speculating on the effects of travel starting up again, but I cant see how its a long term investible business now.


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## galumay (10 October 2021)

I give up.


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## RikFever (10 October 2021)

galumay said:


> I give up.



galumay, don't give up. I have been trading for about 6 weeks now, and your and others' insights are invaluable learnings for 'rookies'. Not everyone is going to listen, and a fool and their money are soon parted (and if not soon, not long after as everyone gets lucky occasionally).


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## galumay (10 October 2021)

RikFever said:


> galumay, don't give up. I have been trading for about 6 weeks now, and your and others' insights are invaluable learnings for 'rookies'. Not everyone is going to listen, and a fool and their money are soon parted (and if not soon, not long after as everyone gets lucky occasionally).



Thanks for the kind words! Don't worry I am only giving up on that individual, I find the relief from stopping banging my head against a brick wall is very pleasant. I am old enough to see the warning signs and I should know well enough by now that the ignore button makes life much smoother!

(note first of all he said he already put $100k into FLT, then a couple of posts later he says he is going to put $90k into it tomorrow.)


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## KevinBB (10 October 2021)

"_Buy on rumour, sell on fact_" might come into play here. The rumour and fact, in this case, is the re-opening of the economy.

KH


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## KevinBB (10 October 2021)

Its a bit funny, too, that a certain individual has been a member for only a short time, has posted in relation to two stocks only, and, in both cases, his first post on that particular thread was to say that the stock would skyrocket.

Now, it might be a coincidence, but the cynic in me thinks not.

KH


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## qldfrog (10 October 2021)

wiseman said:


> I
> 
> As I said I am aware of the maths / debt situation but I am trusting my friend because I literally do not know a single person who has had more success with stocks or anything finance related. The man has never been wrong about a stock. Even if it means inflation due to speculation, and pulling out at 20-30% profits that’s still great. I’m investing 90k tomorrow so even if it goes up by 15% in the next few weeks due to border openings ect.. that’s still $13,500 profit. And it will most likely be more than 15%. It jumped 30% in one week recently.



As long as you are ready to sell and take profit, it is a trade...why not..


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## galumay (10 October 2021)

Indeed, nothing wrong with speculating if thats your game.


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## sptrawler (10 October 2021)

The problem with flight centre and others are IMO, the public is becoming more internet savvy and the carriers are wanting to cut overheads after the pandemic closures.
So whether the carriers continue the commissions  to third party sellers will be interesting, post pandemic, time will tell.
But i'm not gambling.
However I do love enthusiasm.


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## greggles (11 October 2021)

FLT significantly lower this morning, down 3.22% to $22.21.  More profit taking after running too far too fast I would think.


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## Sean K (13 October 2021)

greggles said:


> FLT significantly lower this morning, down 3.22% to $22.21.  More profit taking after running too far too fast I would think.




Chart looks like healthy profit taking after running to $25 and much needed correction on reducing volume, which is a positive. Heading towards 20 and 50d sma's while the longer term previous strong resistance and now support at $20 obviously still well in tact. Chart still looking good.

No idea what a fair valuation is going to be moving forward. Do they even have a useful pe ratio at the moment?


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## galumay (13 October 2021)

kennas said:


> Do they even have a useful pe ratio at the moment?




You can get some sense of one by applying 2019 earnings to current capitalisation. It would be extremely optimistic obviously, but would be about 20x. You would need big cajones to take that bet!


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## Sean K (13 October 2021)

galumay said:


> You can get some sense of one by applying 2019 earnings to current capitalisation. It would be extremely optimistic obviously, but would be about 20x. You would need big cajones to take that bet!




Yeah, in normal circumstances, day-to-day operations, I imaging this would have been closer to 12, pre-Covid.


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## galumay (13 October 2021)

Its the doubling of shares on issue that people miss, it was trading at about 17x pre covid at $40. Today its $22 and trading at 20x the same 2019 earnings!! So the market is currently valuing it higher than it did before Covid. If thats not the definition of insane, I dont know what is!!

(without even considering the explosion in debt!)


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## greggles (13 October 2021)

Almost every Flight Centre retail location in my area has been closed since 2020, except for one located in a Westfield shopping centre that sees a lot of foot traffic. My understanding is that they now have less than 50% of the retail outlets they did pre-COVID. Growing revenue from this position will be a very slow process.

No industry will take longer to recover from this pandemic than travel. Betting on FLT, or any other travel industry listed company, is a very risky bet IMO. People can make all the assumptions they like about how things will play out over the next couple of years, but the bottom line is nobody knows.


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## RikFever (14 October 2021)

galumay said:


> I give up.



Looks like you didn't give up, someone else did. Comments have disappeared as has the user. I would have hated to pump $190k into since start of Oct off my uncles advice that's for sure


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## Sean K (21 October 2021)

AGM Pres out yesterday makes interesting reading on where they're sitting and expectations going forward.

Of interest to my theory that they might go back to pre-Covid booking levels within 12 months and the SP to correspond (although factoring in some forward looking price - higher pe) Skroo thinks it's not going to be until June 2024 that they will go back to 2019 TTV levels. So, I might be going to owe you a beer @greggles


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## galumay (21 October 2021)

The share price is already back to pre-Covid levels in real terms. (share count doubled). Massive debt now.

There is a lot of positive narrative working hard in that outlook, "leaner & more efficient" as opposed by "bloated with debt", 
"customers will require more assistance", as opposed to "customers WFH & using online retail much more have learnt new skills and will need our services less" 

The optimism is naive, to imagine a company that suffered such a massive destruction of its entire business model for more than 2 years will just bounce back to the level of previous business activity with no structural damage. That the share price shows the market already valuing it at 2019 steady state is truly mind boggling.

No doubt despite my thoughts, it will double in the next 6 months!!


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## greggles (21 October 2021)

kennas said:


> AGM Pres out yesterday makes interesting reading on where they're sitting and expectations going forward.
> 
> Of interest to my theory that they might go back to pre-Covid booking levels within 12 months and the SP to correspond (although factoring in some forward looking price - higher pe) Skroo thinks it's not going to be until June 2024 that they will go back to 2019 TTV levels. So, I might be going to owe you a beer @greggles
> 
> View attachment 131727




It is not going to be easy for FLT to dig themselves out of this hole they have found themselves in. Demand will not bounce back to 2019 levels quickly or easily. Lots of people have been buying property and are now mortgaged to the hilt. As a result, more people will holiday at home in the years to come. Not just because of their heavy personal debt loads, but because of the risks that international travel now pose. Getting infected by a coronavirus is a little more serious than a case of Bali Belly.

Good article here about this: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10...ut-covid-makes-travel-admin-complex/100552564

There are a lot of headwinds FLT will be struggling against in the years to come. This is not a business I would invest in due largely to the inherent uncertainty. Travel is an industry that will be changed forever by COVID-19. It is difficult to know how FLT will emerge from those changes. But they are now debt laden and struggling with an uncertain future. Much better opportunities out there if you ask me.


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## Sean K (27 November 2021)

Another long term buying opportunity coming up with travel stocks. Going to be smashed with the Omicron variant on Monday. 

What happened to the Xi variant?


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## qldfrog (27 November 2021)

I get Delta+ was not scary enough, have to concede these marketing teams are amazingly good


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## StockyGuy (28 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> Another long term buying opportunity coming up with travel stocks. Going to be smashed with the Omicron variant on Monday.
> 
> What happened to the Xi variant?




Good pick up... calling it such provocative name might've kicked off Armageddon.  But then if it was that number they might've just called it X variant or something, as Greek letter xi is even harder to pronounce correctly than the Chinese name.


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## StockyGuy (28 November 2021)

Didn't realise they actually skipped it entirely - but to be fair they skipped the prior letter Nu for other reasons also.









						WHO 'bowed to China' by skipping letter when naming new Covid variant
					

The agency led by chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (pictured)  announced that it would be calling the new strain Omicron - jumping over the letter Xi, the name of China's premier Xi Jinping.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## sptrawler (23 June 2022)

This thread has been quiet for a long time and I have never owned them, but today shook me a bit.
I've had reason to go to the local shopping mall about 4 times this week, at the entrance is a flight centre shop, it has been packed every time I have walked past.
I wonder if the fact most travel agents have gone bust, that flight center is the last man standing, for those who don't book online?


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## waterbottle (23 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> This thread has been quiet for a long time and I have never owned them, but today shook me a bit.
> I've had reason to go to the local shopping mall about 4 times this week, at the entrance is a flight centre shop, it has been packed every time I have walked past.
> I wonder if the fact most travel agents have gone bust, that flight center is the last man standing, for those who don't book online?




The industry would have seen some consolidation, although there are still many challenges ahead. High price of oil means air travel is expensive. High interest rates means discretionary spending is going to go down. Future remains bleak IMO.


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## qldfrog (23 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> This thread has been quiet for a long time and I have never owned them, but today shook me a bit.
> I've had reason to go to the local shopping mall about 4 times this week, at the entrance is a flight centre shop, it has been packed every time I have walked past.
> I wonder if the fact most travel agents have gone bust, that flight center is the last man standing, for those who don't book online?



My personal experience: went OS in march, being in the mess of covid regulations etc, we went with flight center..first time in 15y using a travel agent for a simple return flight OS to a central America airport.
Nothing fancy multiple legs etc....
What a waste of money and effort.absolutely no support,just automated emails.most of them irrelevant.
FC was much worse than i ever inagine they could be...
Never again...i said that 25y ago..and got a lesson when i breached that promise in 2022.
They should not exist.....


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