# Simple Trading Systems



## ARTHUR.S

I am currently looking to purchase a trading system that actually works and can produce great results.I have tried,over the years to develop one myself-
one that can work across all markets and work consistently but I keep going back to the drawing board.Finding such a system is becoming more elusive as time goes by.
Recently I attended a seminar in Melbourne by Aussie Robs Lifestyle Trader.
This,in my opinion,is exactly what I'm looking for providing it really works.Its very simple but the drawback is that you can only run this software on his
exclusive data feed.Is there anyone trading live with this software and if so,
what do you think?


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## Shane Baker

Hi Arthur

There was a discussion a while ago about Aussie Robs offerings and they seemed to think that he was well named. The link is

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=68;t=000024#000000

Hope this helps.

Cheers

Shane


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## Realist

It sounds incredibly dodgy to me so far, dodgier than a weight loss pill, or a pheremone spray to attract chicks...

Please tell me more. I like hearing about these things    

Aussie Rob - is he rich, real rich?  Why then does he run seminars?  Is it to help you, if so and he is so rich why not help you by running it for free?  If he aint rich then maybe he needs to perfect his scam, I mean system some more.


Please tell me more about this guy....


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## Nick Radge

I post live trades here on the XJO although this system works on all volatile stocks. Shows in real time that systems can and do work.

Below is a Hang Seng trading system that I developed in 1998. This equity curve using real trades since 2003. All comm's and slippage included. It also works on all Asia-Pacific index futures.







These systems are EOD but exit at the days close with no overnight exposure. 

You may be better of learning to develop your own systems rather than using a vendor. Perhaps you simply need some "direction" in that area rather than outlaying more money.


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## wayneL

What you are doing essentially is paying a couple of grand for an oscillator  

I've got several and I'm only charging $500 each plus you get a set of free steak knives


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## Bobby

wayneL said:
			
		

> What you are doing essentially is paying a couple of grand for an oscillator
> 
> I've got several and I'm only charging $500 each plus you get a set of free steak knives




 


I have a straddle intraday system   Thats not for sale to humans.

Bob.


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## Bobby

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> I post live trades here on the XJO although this system works on all volatile stocks. Shows in real time that systems can and do work.
> 
> Below is a Hang Seng trading system that I developed in 1998. This equity curve using real trades since 2003. All comm's and slippage included. It also works on all Asia-Pacific index futures.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> These systems are EOD but exit at the days close with no overnight exposure.
> 
> You may be better of learning to develop your own systems rather than using a vendor. Perhaps you simply need some "direction" in that area rather than outlaying more money.



Nick your chart has no time frame ? please repost with this.

Bob.


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## eddievanhalen

Hey Arthur - was that seminar a free introductory seminar??

I'm in Melbourne and wouldn't mind going to see this guy in action.

I had someone ask me about it too and had a look at his site........all I can say is "don't get sucked into buying a US $4000 TA crossover system".

I just want to have a fun night out and watch this dude in action if there's free tickets available.  I was in stitches looking at his website. 

Ed


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## bunyip

ARTHUR.S said:
			
		

> I am currently looking to purchase a trading system that actually works and can produce great results.I have tried,over the years to develop one myself-
> one that can work across all markets and work consistently but I keep going back to the drawing board.Finding such a system is becoming more elusive as time goes by.
> Recently I attended a seminar in Melbourne by Aussie Robs Lifestyle Trader.
> This,in my opinion,is exactly what I'm looking for providing it really works.Its very simple but the drawback is that you can only run this software on his
> exclusive data feed.Is there anyone trading live with this software and if so,
> what do you think?




I've never heard of this 'Aussie Robs' bloke but he sounds like a con to me. Even if he's the real deal, I suspect that what he's selling has a price tag of at least a couple of thousand dollars.
You don't need to spend anywhere near that amount of money to learn how to trade profitably. Nick Radge's online course has a price tag in the hundreds of dollars, not thousands. Knowing Nick, and having been to some of his presentations at ATAA meetings, I can tell you he knows his stuff. I'd be surprised if his course isn't well and truly worthwhile.

Another way of getting yourself a workable trading system is to learn the 'Darvas Box' method. In the 1950's Nick Darvas amassed more than 2 million dollars by trading the stockmarket...this would equate to 30 or 40 million dollars in todays values.
His system was logical and simple........he looked for sleepy stocks that had recently woken up by showing surging price and volume. He bought these stocks as they broke above resistance.
Darvas was a better trader than author......he was talked into writing a book about his system, but the book doesn't do a particularly good job of detailing his methodology.

The simplest and cheapest way of learning the Darvas system is to buy Frank Watkins 26 page booklet titled 'Darvas Box Trading'. The booklet costs less than $10 and is one of the best and most comprehensive descriptions I've seen of the Darvas Box system.
The Darvas system is logical and effective, yet so simple that you can learn it today and be trading it tomorrow.

Bunyip


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## wayneL

eddievanhalen said:
			
		

> Hey Arthur - was that seminar a free introductory seminar??
> 
> I'm in Melbourne and wouldn't mind going to see this guy in action.
> 
> I had someone ask me about it too and had a look at his site........all I can say is "don't get sucked into buying a US $4000 TA crossover system".
> 
> I just want to have a fun night out and watch this dude in action if there's free tickets available.  I was in stitches looking at his website.
> 
> Ed




 I miss all the fun living up here. I used to do that regularly in the big smoke too.

You can have a laugh, plus learn a bit about hype and marketing. :


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## It's Snake Pliskin

ARTHUR.S said:
			
		

> I am currently looking to purchase a trading system that actually works and can produce great results.I have tried,over the years to develop one myself-
> one that can work across all markets and work consistently but I keep going back to the drawing board.Finding such a system is becoming more elusive as time goes by.
> Recently I attended a seminar in Melbourne by Aussie Robs Lifestyle Trader.
> This,in my opinion,is exactly what I'm looking for providing it really works.Its very simple but the drawback is that you can only run this software on his
> exclusive data feed.Is there anyone trading live with this software and if so,
> what do you think?





If someone says it works and you decide to splurge, how would you know it works?

His website has pretty colours on it by the way.


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## Bobby

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> If someone says it works and you decide to splurge, how would you know it works?
> 
> His website has pretty colours on it by the way.




Yes Snake thats how it works ( buy hope )   
Have you noticed how the rabbits are getting done with there technical analysis   

 Technology now can eat & set ambushes for those that  use  this old 90s stuff, multi dimension charting is now the go, just to see were the rabbits are going to jump is sad.

Bob.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

Bobby said:
			
		

> Yes Snake thats how it works ( buy hope )
> Have you noticed how the rabbits are getting done with there technical analysis
> 
> Technology now can eat & set ambushes for those that  use  this old 90s stuff, multi dimension charting is now the go, just to see were the rabbits are going to jump is sad.
> 
> Bob.




Bob,

What most software does is tell you what a pen and some graphing paper could. A pen is a couple of dollars, and graph paper is a few dollars. The rest is for opcorn: And its all for sale to humans too  

Pliskin


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## Bobby

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Bob,
> 
> What most software does is tell you what a pen and some graphing paper could. A pen is a couple of dollars, and graph paper is a few dollars. The rest is for opcorn: And its all for sale to humans too
> 
> Pliskin



Well Pliskin , 

I do feel you have the matter in hand   
Well handled Sir.

Bob.


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## Milk Man

bunyip said:
			
		

> Another way of getting yourself a workable trading system is to learn the 'Darvas Box' method. In the 1950's Nick Darvas amassed more than 2 million dollars by trading the stockmarket...this would equate to 30 or 40 million dollars in todays values.
> His system was logical and simple........he looked for sleepy stocks that had recently woken up by showing surging price and volume. He bought these stocks as they broke above resistance.
> Darvas was a better trader than author......he was talked into writing a book about his system, but the book doesn't do a particularly good job of detailing his methodology.




I tested a darvas box system and it didnt come up too good. It was with erroneous data though. I dont have up to date stock data now otherwise i'd give it another bash. Point is; anything any guru has written and ive been able to code up simply has not worked (Nick Radge excluded).


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## Nick Radge

Bobby,
That chart starts on Feb 17 200 and finishes last week.

Bunyip,
Agree 100% on Darvas. Easy. Robust. Profitable. Say no more really, except that to systemize it would not do it justice. Its more of a "rule based" method rather than a pure systematic one.

Perhaps ArthurS can tell us what or why is own system design has not be up to scratch. The answers may not be that difficult to discern. I don't think my course will help get you over the line with regards to a complete systematic approach (but thanks for the plug ) If you've already been going at it for a few years, then the last thing you want is further muddying of the waters.


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## idribble

Here's a system of sorts not for the feint hearted.  I use it in cojunction with my prozac and oxygen bottle!

1) Stock must have risen at least 20% on the day.

2) Stock must close at it's high for the day, or within one tick of it's high

3) Volume must be 4 times the average volume of the previous 5 days

4) Trading value for the day must be at least $50k

and lastly, and almost the most important is;

5) This action must be the FIRST SIGNS OF LIFE for at least six months, the stock must not be in a downtrend, preferably haveing formed a base for longer than six months.  This is the judgement side of things.  

You buy at the end of the day, not on open the next day!


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## macca

Hi Arthur

What is wrong with Tech Trader ?

Maybe because it is freely available no one believes it.

Fully documented trades on a public forum for years, simple straight forward............. bloody hell, what more do you want ?

I agree that the market has been easy but all these a** holes selling systems are using the same time frames as TT, and it at least has been proven.

Other users can give you advice if you are stuck or use it as a basis to create your own.............too easy    

Macca


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## bunyip

idribble said:
			
		

> Here's a system of sorts not for the feint hearted.  I use it in cojunction with my prozac and oxygen bottle!
> 
> 1) Stock must have risen at least 20% on the day.
> 
> 2) Stock must close at it's high for the day, or within one tick of it's high
> 
> 3) Volume must be 4 times the average volume of the previous 5 days
> 
> 4) Trading value for the day must be at least $50k
> 
> and lastly, and almost the most important is;
> 
> 5) This action must be the FIRST SIGNS OF LIFE for at least six months, the stock must not be in a downtrend, preferably haveing formed a base for longer than six months.  This is the judgement side of things.
> 
> You buy at the end of the day, not on open the next day!




Don't you find that in many cases a 20% rise in one day entices the profit takers to bail out, resulting in the stock pulling back over the next few days?

Your system has some similarities with the Darvas system, in that Darvas looked for formerly sleepy stocks that had recently woken up by surging in price and volume. But rather than buy there and then, he waited for the inevitable pullback, then bought them once they took off again.

Bunyip


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## idribble

Bunyip, not necessarily.  

The close on high indicates strength.


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## Phoenix

Hi Arthur

Don't waste your money on a trading system. Even if it does work, it will work for a little while and then what? This is what happens with almost all systems you are better of using Tech Trader which i have enhanced further which works even better. If ya don't know how to trade well how will you know when the system has stopped working?

What ever you decide good luck with your choice


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## Halba

the 1 2 3 trading system seems to work for medium term timeframes. Sure u might get whipsaws occasionally, but if you back it up with other indicators (such as underlying trend, support/resistance, volume) it will work


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## nioka

1. Research the company not the chart.
2. Read the comany's announcements for the past 2 years or as far back as you can.
3. Look to see if the company has prospects which you are reasonably sure can be fulfilled.
4. Check potential PE ratio 
5. Now look at the charts

 You will now be in a position to at least make an educated assesment.

P.S. Look to hold for long term. Regular trading makes a fortune for brokers. They are called brokers because most day traders without a lot of knowledge end up broke.


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## bunyip

Halba said:
			
		

> the 1 2 3 trading system seems to work for medium term timeframes. Sure u might get whipsaws occasionally, but if you back it up with other indicators (such as underlying trend, support/resistance, volume) it will work




I'm well aquainted with the 1 2 3 trading system, but some of our members may not have heard of it. For their benefit, perhaps you'd care to briefly outline the system?

Bunyip


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## It's Snake Pliskin

bunyip said:
			
		

> I'm well aquainted with the 1 2 3 trading system, but some of our members may not have heard of it. For their benefit, perhaps you'd care to briefly outline the system?
> 
> Bunyip




Momentum will carry you to 4, 5, 6 etc.


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## tech/a

1,2,3 is an old Joe Ross technique he used to trade Futures.

Its not a system simply a trade setup.

Sometimes incorrectly described as a Ross Hook.


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## Mr_Liquidity

Any progarm system will fail in the long run it has to be changed to keep inline with whats happening

the best trading system is built in!

your brain!


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## tech/a

The problem with the brain is that unlike a system it IS frought with the most dangerous of weaknesses---Fear and Greed.

There is no reason why a system cant have filters to activate it within changes in the market.

Short-term swing trading does exactly that.
I have applied filters to T/Trader which also work well.
Nick Radge seems to have applied something of that nature to the short term system he is running on Reefcap.

Dont under estimate the power of systems trading and often forgotten is the saving of huge amounts of time and effort once in place.


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## alankew

Does anyone have a link for Techtrader.Thanks


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## Nick Radge

errr...what am I missing here...

Anyone heard of 

Campbell? (2,100% since 1985) - owns share in NY Yankee's (i think)
EMC? (14,000% since 1987)
Echkhardt? (10,000% since 1989)
Hawksbill? (4,000% since 1990)
John Henry? (14,000% since 1986) - owns Miami Dolphns
Milburn? (12,000% since 1999)
Rabar? (1,000% since 1991)
Rosetta? (4,000% since 2001)
Rotella? (1,200% since 1993)
Transtrend? (500% since 1996)

Admitedly the only thing they have in common is that they are 100% systematic traders...


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## tech/a

Bugger Techtrader. 

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=forum;f=74

I want what these guys are having!!

EMC? (14,000% since 1987)
Echkhardt? (10,000% since 1989)
John Henry? (14,000% since 1986) - owns Miami Dolphns
Milburn? (12,000% since 1999)


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## nizar

bunyip said:
			
		

> His system was logical and simple........he looked for sleepy stocks that had recently woken up by showing surging price and volume. He bought these stocks as they broke above resistance.




Hmmm.... it sounds like maybe Darvas would have bought CBH then....
10x average volume 2day and up by 6% close on the high... and its been in a stage 1 for about 3 months now...


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## Bobby

tech/a said:
			
		

> Bugger Techtrader.
> 
> http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=forum;f=74
> 
> I want what these guys are having!!
> 
> EMC? (14,000% since 1987)
> Echkhardt? (10,000% since 1989)
> John Henry? (14,000% since 1986) - owns Miami Dolphns
> Milburn? (12,000% since 1999)




Hey Tech,

Don't bag yourself, you are doing OK !  

Bob.


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## Bobby

Mr_Liquidity said:
			
		

> Any progarm system will fail in the long run it has to be changed to keep inline with whats happening
> 
> the best trading system is built in!
> 
> your brain!



 Hello Mr- Liquidity,

I know exactly what you ment, well said   

Regards Bob.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

alankew said:
			
		

> Does anyone have a link for Techtrader.Thanks




Alan,

There are no stitching needles thrown in with Techtrader.  

Sorry couldn`t resist.


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## Bobby

alankew said:
			
		

> Does anyone have a link for Techtrader.Thanks



Its all on Reefcap, just google it .


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## Freeballinginawetsuit

Phoenix said:
			
		

> Hi Arthur
> 
> Don't waste your money on a trading system. Even if it does work, it will work for a little while and then what? This is what happens with almost all systems you are better of using Tech Trader which i have enhanced further which works even better. If ya don't know how to trade well how will you know when the system has stopped working?
> 
> What ever you decide good luck with your choice




"A simple Trading System". Sell higher for what your purchase price was to a punter that considers hes getting a bargain. 
A very simple trading system, that only becomes complicated when the punter wants a cheaper bargain!. Then consider the quandry youve got your self into.


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## Mr_Liquidity

tech/a said:
			
		

> The problem with the brain is that unlike a system it IS frought with the most dangerous of weaknesses---Fear and Greed.
> 
> There is no reason why a system cant have filters to activate it within changes in the market.
> 
> Short-term swing trading does exactly that.
> I have applied filters to T/Trader which also work well.
> Nick Radge seems to have applied something of that nature to the short term system he is running on Reefcap.
> 
> Dont under estimate the power of systems trading and often forgotten is the saving of huge amounts of time and effort once in place.




LOL well if you have fear and greed then your not a good trader!! And you dont have a system!

It's a proven fact Humans out perform and computure program in the market!

concentrate on reprograming your self and not beliving in a little black box!

Peace


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## Mr_Liquidity

Bobby said:
			
		

> Hello Mr- Liquidity,
> 
> I know exactly what you ment, well said
> 
> Regards Bob.




Cheers Bob


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## tech/a

Mr_Liquidity said:
			
		

> LOL well if you have fear and greed then your not a good trader!! And you dont have a system!
> 
> 
> concentrate on reprograming your self and not beliving in a little black box!
> 
> Peace





Well if its a little black box then I agree.

A profitable system *one designs * (one witha positive expectancy) is far more than simply a set of entry exit criteria.
While Im not arguing that discretionary trading cannot produce profit,I am arguing that systems trading is best suited to some traders.
I'm not talking mindless Black boxes either.



> It's a proven fact Humans out perform and computure program in the market!




Could you point me in the direction of such proof or is this simply a gut feeling?
Do you understand systems design?
There are many ways to trade the market systems trading is but one/as is discretionary trading.


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## alankew

Snake think you are stalking me!Must be my pommie blood that you can taste!And just for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## neo

Do humans outperfrm any computer model on the market?
Check out this article regards human decision making vs statistical models.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_print.aspx


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## MichaelD

neo said:
			
		

> Do humans outperfrm any computer model on the market?
> 
> http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_print.aspx



An excellent read and certainly one well in line with my market experiences to date (I no longer try to "outsmart" my system, just follow it).

To me, the key phrase in this article was "We all think that we know better than simple models."


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## tech/a

The dilema of the discretionary trader regardless of method of buy selection is seen in the last "Why not Quant" summation.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

alankew said:
			
		

> Snake think you are stalking me!Must be my pommie blood that you can taste!And just for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




That`s funny. I shall ignore you from hereon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Mr_Liquidity

tech/a said:
			
		

> Well if its a little black box then I agree.
> 
> A profitable system *one designs * (one witha positive expectancy) is far more than simply a set of entry exit criteria.
> While Im not arguing that discretionary trading cannot produce profit,I am arguing that systems trading is best suited to some traders.
> I'm not talking mindless Black boxes either.
> 
> 
> 
> Could you point me in the direction of such proof or is this simply a gut feeling?
> Do you understand systems design?
> There are many ways to trade the market systems trading is but one/as is discretionary trading.





Humans trade better then programs.

that fact was in Wizzards of the Market my friend 

that is a great book to read!


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## Mr_Liquidity

tech/a said:
			
		

> The dilema of the discretionary trader regardless of method of buy selection is seen in the last "Why not Quant" summation.




Tech/a 

I am not trying to attack you please dont think that, I just think some people dont spend the time and do the hard work to make them self a winner they look for a magic bullet that does not exsist!

I have no probs with trading programs!

peace


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## Milk Man

I think Ducati would have an interesting opinion on this issue.  

Personally i'm just testing this theory in my own trading. There are several issues at play within the "quant" theory itself; how well the system is designed, size of test base, back/forward testing issues, curve fitting etc.

Curve fitting is my worst fear ATM. That is why my system is really quite basic (not to code to Amibroker; unless youre Kaveman ). My assumption being that I can outperform said system by using such things as eyeball scans for trends on multiple timeframes, support/resistance levels  and confluence of the two and other logical phenomena. Whether or not this assuption is correct or not is at the heart of this issue; does my system provide a base or a ceiling.....


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## tech/a

Mr_Liquidity said:
			
		

> Tech/a
> 
> I am not trying to attack you please dont think that, I just think some people dont spend the time and do the hard work to make them self a winner they look for a magic bullet that does not exsist!
> 
> I have no probs with trading programs!
> 
> peace





Here I agree with you.

If traders dont spend the time doing "The Hard Work" then they will have no idea where to start in their quest to design a system much less be able to design one which is consistantly profitable.

Trading programes such as Metastock or Bullcharts or amibroker are mostly under utilized.
Trading systems are ofcourse developed with the help of good trading programs.
The program itself is little more than a technical analysis tool and is way way short of a trading Methodology.


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## happytrader

Mr_Liquidity said:
			
		

> Humans trade better then programs.
> 
> that fact was in Wizzards of the Market my friend
> 
> that is a great book to read!




Hi Mr Liquidity

I haven't read Market Wizards but I have read New Market Wizards many times and I noticed that every one of them was a systems trader and had nearly all paid the price for disobedience.

However, nowhere did I make the observation that humans trade better than programs. But I did make the observation that humans traded with consistent profitably when programmed to a system that suited their personality.
I guess thats the same as saying 'trade like a robot' or 'get yourself out of the way' or even, 'its not about you' just trade the system.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## nioka

bunyip said:
			
		

> Don't you find that in many cases a 20% rise in one day entices the profit takers to bail out, resulting in the stock pulling back over the next few days?
> 
> Your system has some similarities with the Darvas system, in that Darvas looked for formerly sleepy stocks that had recently woken up by surging in price and volume. But rather than buy there and then, he waited for the inevitable pullback, then bought them once they took off again.
> 
> Bunyip



You seem to be right. I have found that to be the case on most occasions. I have checked on the past performances of a few stocks and most seem to follow that trend. Relate the graph to announcements then be allerted to future aqnnouncements for the next hint.


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## maximillian

It's been a while since anyone commented on this topic and I was conducting some research into Aussie Robs Lifestyle Trader, program, system, software.

Only today I saw a national advert for Lifestyle Trader, but did not see any web address mentioned in the add, hence I consulted google like all the other googlians 

If anyone has a better link to this program on the forum please paste the link.

I am not a seller of anything and trade my own trading systems.

After some analysis from YouTube videos and additional information I discovered
what you get with the helfty price tag of $15000 + $200 data feed per month & software is the Heiken Ashi indicator signals LoL.   The bars or candles are not displayed just the averages for this indicator.   Anyhow, anyone wishing to save a lot of money can just sign up for a demo account with a broker of their choosing that has Metatrader  and do the same thing for absolutely no cost whatsoever 

Cheerio!


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## Wysiwyg

Any examples of a simple trading system?


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## maximillian

Yes, did I mention Heiken Ashi?

That is a simple trading system.

Consult Google for more info


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## Boggo

maximillian said:


> Yes, did I mention Heiken Ashi?
> 
> That is a simple trading system.




Heiken Ashi is an indicator, not a trading system !

A trading system is a method involving the entry, stops, profit targets and exits, and that is an oversimplification.

A trading system may involve the use of indicators.


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## Pager

I think we would all like a simple trading system that was CONSISTANT and EASY to trade ?.

Unfortunately there’s not many if any around, ive traded simple systems for a number of years and believe me drawdown’s are often deep and you go extended periods going nowhere, like any form of trading its not as easy as the glossy brochures and spruikers would have you believe, I actually posted live on the Chartist website for 12 months with 1 system, the year I did it it did very well, currently though its pretty average and has been for a while, from speaking with a broker last week it sounds like things right know for system traders in general are pretty tough or in fact as tough as they have ever been, a lot of things that have worked for years that system traders have used have just stopped.  

Nothing lasts for ever maybe, so you need to be aware that this can occur, some traders plot equity and therefore have an on/off switch others use other methods to stop or start


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## TabJockey

Reading allot of literature, I have come to the conclusion that unless you have great resources at your disposal, to build a profitable system for yourself you dont want to make it too complicated.

The system I have developed for myself comprises of 2 long term trade filters based on sector trend and market trend, 2 buy signal rules, 3 money management rules and one sell signal rule.

Its pretty simple but it did take allot of time learning, and then time working, to develop it. But when I orignally started manually testing my original idea it showed great results, and thats a good sign that you have something workable.

The next thing you have to do is try to "disprove" your system. Test it in every kind of market and in lots of different types of instruments. 

I believe that if you are well educated about markets, watch allot of price action habitually and you're nerdy enough to enjoy spending weeks testing statistical ideas then you can come up with something simple that takes money out of the market.

Also: Trend trading is nowhere near as effective as it was, and most simple systems are trend following systems. Perhaps try other types of system ideas?


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## Gringotts Bank

Pager said:


> from speaking with a broker last week it sounds like things right know for system traders in general are pretty tough or in fact as tough as they have ever been




Yes I agree with this.  I have a few systems that I track for interest (not trade) and have had to re-optimize things to keep them 'profitable' into this year.  When I re-optimize I try to look at the All Ords, general sentiment in the media (tv newspapers not online), and see when things changed, then re-optimize from that date. Another way to do this is to run a low lag MA through your equity curve, which has been discussed alot on this forum.  I decided that the last 2 months have been quite different to the previous 2 years (approx).  *Many *more people are trading nowadays - a bit like footy betting it's getting a lot more interest and I think instos are lowering their allowable entry criteria (price and volume) to match.  Bots are appearing in penny stocks that I wouldn't have believed only a year ago.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

...meant to say: I've heard bots can seek out chart patterns and make a stock break out then fail, casuing short term traders who have bought the breakout to dump their stock.  Dump it into the waiting insto buyers, who have a longer time frame.  The other thing they can do is stop a stock from breaking out (one that would have done so under normal conditions).  Some of the CFD providers have some very nifty pattern finders that are way ahead of what you can get on AB for example.  

I think one trick is to learn how to read bots and _maybe  _try to adopt the same sort of time frame that they use.  Bots aim to kill short term traders. 

In years ahead I suspect we will see stocks trade greater ranges with candle wicks at both ends, similar to the US.


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Bots are appearing in penny stocks that I wouldn't have believed only a year ago.



 Yeah it's a stupid game they play. Buying $20 - $50 lots spaced 1 or 2 minutes apart while several thousand dollar lots are being bought around them is very stupid. It would take a long time to accumulate an average holding at that rate while the price has moved usually down for the bots I have seen buying.


----------



## Wysiwyg

The trading system has to suit the market one is trading. It can be discovered that historical results are better on other indices. Each group of index constituents are  different so one system (in my testing) is best suited to one index. 

Needs for a trading system ...

1) consistent entry trigger with experienced actual entry/s   
2) defined stop loss/es 
3) position sizing calculation/s (very important)

and most importantly (and unique to each individual or group) 

4)
  (a) exit at profitable time/s or value/s 
  (b) exit at the most profitable time/s or value/s (best achieved with experience pending information, f.a. and/or t.a., available)


----------



## Wysiwyg

Interesting to note there are over 14000 views of this thread and only 60 replies with some ambiguous or off topic ones. Tells me there aint no "simple trading system".


----------



## TabJockey

There are infinite ways to make money in the markets but profitable systems only come from within. You.won't find.them on forums, although there are lots.of great ideas to try to build into your own style.


----------



## joea

Wysiwyg said:


> Interesting to note there are over 14000 views of this thread and only 60 replies with some ambiguous or off topic ones. Tells me there aint no "simple trading system".




The reason for this is that, those that post do not want to give secrets away.
The share market education industry must be worth billions.
To me, those traders believe its an internal society, and it probably is for those that have that particular beliefs.

i.e elliott by fibonacci, VSA, indicator combination.

The funny thing about it is, those  that continue get a mental stimulation that beats reading the newspaper or what ever.
So  I suppose you can say "ego is a powerfull thing". Or you have to cull the non - believers l!!

There is a simple trading system, but ego's want to complicate it.
Some traders want it to be so full of "bells and whistles", that they become advisers,
but then  that's what humans are all about, isn't it?

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> Interesting to note there are over 14000 views of this thread and only 60 replies with some ambiguous or off topic ones. Tells me there aint no "simple trading system".




Of course there is
"Techtrader" is a simple system
Traded live for 7 yrs and still in use by many.
Its on Radge's site and will be in his next book.

Wysiwyg 
You haven't got one then?

What it tells me is that very few trade!!!---at all.


----------



## tech/a

Advanced Get and Elliott have 4 fully disclosed systems which I'm happy to trade a few here perhaps in the Elliott (Practical application) thread to amuse Kenna's.

Only thing is that end of May I'm touring Europe for a couple of months so perhaps when I get back.

If people understood what make a system or trading method profitable it wouldn't be hard at all.
There are only 3 ways I know of.
Once you know what they are then your know what and how to build your method.
But as mentioned its a secret club of ego strokers who know!!---isn't it?


----------



## stargazer

Hi all

Any chance of a link to Tech trader might help me and others.

On the question of sharing secrets which in my opinion there are none just experience and knowledge.  

This forum there have been many that have shared and being helpful but i must say TECH/A is abundant in his sharing of actual trades and the nitty gritty of trading.  

Without over complicating things just to appear more intelligent than anyone else.

If you only understand laymans terms Tech/a accomodates, if you are complex in your explanations and try to dazzle forumites with brilliance Tech/a will spar.  

Of course if you try and baffle everyone with bull**** Tech/a will pick you up on it.

Cheers
SG


----------



## nunthewiser

hahahahahaha....

no offence intended


----------



## nunthewiser

1. grab chart
2. in your own opinion,plot areas of intrest and previous support/ressistance areas..throw in outlieng short term overthrows.
3. plot entry level and risk size to the % loss of your " right or wrong area"
4. buy stock at point a to suit above
5. stock  falls to point b , sell stock.
6.stocks  runs  to point c, move  trailstop to point d previously mapped on the basis of the move using screentime.
7.from here different ppl go different ways....some have complete targets,some have part  sells, some sell to keep stock.
that depends on you.

seems simple to me but im no typist and the  grey areas are what makes it interesting.

and yes tech is the only real trader on all the forums.......

he is the wind beneath my wings

bless ya


----------



## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> Of course there is
> "Techtrader" is a simple system
> Traded live for 7 yrs and still in use by many.
> Its on Radge's site and will be in his next book.



I back tested someone's Amibroker coded "Tech Trader" and got very ordinary to poor results on All Ords and S&P 500 over any period. I can only assume the entry/exit conditions are wrong. Code below and please enlighten if the code is wrong. 



> Wysiwyg
> You haven't got one then?



Yes. 



> What it tells me is that very few trade!!!---at all.



What it tells me is people don't want to do the construction and testing of a "system" for trading or those that have are looking for new and better ideas.



		PHP:
	

// techtrader v2 amibroker version
// here we define buy conditions and name each one as a variable
PosQty = 10; // You can define here how many open positions you want
SetOption("MaxOpenPositions", PosQty );
PositionScore = Random();

SetOption ("UsePrevBarEquityForPosSizing", True);

SetTradeDelays(1,1,0,0);

// techtrader v2 amibroker version
// here we define buy conditions and name each one as a variable
PositionSize = -10; // always invest only 10% of the current Equity
cond1=Cross(H,Ref(HHV(H,10),-1)); // when todays high crosses last highest high over the last 10 periods
cond2=H > EMA(C,40); // todays high is greater than the 40 day Exp MA of closes
cond3=HHVBars(H,70) == 0; // todays high is the highest for 70 periods
cond4=EMA(V*C,21) > 500000; // ensure at least $500k of money flow
cond5=C < 10.00; // only trading in stocks less than $10
cond6=C > O; // todays close higher than open

// the following line is the trigger if all conditions satisfied
Buy=cond1 AND cond2 AND cond3 AND cond4 AND cond5 AND cond6;


//ApplyStop( stopTypeLoss, stopModePercent, amount=10 );
Sell= Cross(Ref(EMA(L,20),-1),C); // close crosses below yesterdays average of the low


Filter = Buy; // lists exploration results conforming to our buy criteria
AddColumn(Buy, "buy", 1.0); // 
Filter = Sell; // lists exploration results conforming to our buy criteria
AddColumn(Sell, "sell", 1.0); // 

// This section creates the data that you can plot to see how often TT2 trades
// NOTE:- Using VOLUME array so get correct number when switching to WEEKLY or MONTHLY display
AddToComposite(Buy,"~TTBuys","V");
AddToComposite(Sell,"~TTSells","V");

Buy = ExRem(Buy,Sell) ; 
Sell = ExRem(Sell, Buy);
Binary = Flip(Buy , Sell);


----------



## Wysiwyg

joea said:


> The reason for this is that, those that post do not want to give secrets away.
> The share market education industry must be worth billions.
> To me, those traders believe its an internal society, and it probably is for those that have that particular beliefs.



If one believes that trading is a competitive environment and revealing in detail what trading method one uses will give the competition an edge. Very few traders reveal their trading system in detail. Especially if it works in flat and bear markets.

I can't begin to imagine what niche the likes of Howard Bandy has tapped.


----------



## maximillian

Boggo said:


> Heiken Ashi is an indicator, not a trading system !
> 
> A trading system is a method involving the entry, stops, profit targets and exits, and that is an oversimplification.
> 
> A trading system may involve the use of indicators.




Boggo, thank you for your definition of a trading system.  

I like to reduce things to their lowest common denominator, being a quantitative analyst.
My definition of a trading system can be as simple as an entry and an exit.  Profit target is accepting a profit, while  Stop loss is accepting a loss.  They are still an exit, closing a trade regardless of what you want to call them.

Management of equity and risk I believe to be more important than any signal.
A couple here have hinted at equity curve averaging I see, which I can highly recommend.  It has really turned around my currency trading.  Also trade a momentum portfolio of stocks.   An edge is wherever you find one.


----------



## Wysiwyg

At the end of the day though, it is the entry and exit times and values that are greatly varied. Position size relative to risk profile is finite to 100%.


----------



## tech/a

> I back tested someone's Amibroker coded "Tech Trader" and got very ordinary to poor results on All Ords and S&P 500 over any period.




*I'm interested in your definition of "any period".*

It traded live for 7 yrs returning 1200% on initial investment----pretty ordinary--.
Its still up on the site ----

Its also been tested to death by academics who's qualifications would have your head spinning---Ive not had any comments from any of them remotely reflecting your results.

But still I'm sure your definition of "any period" will be enlightening.



> Especially if it works in flat and bear markets.




This is *SERIOUSLY* the comment of a novice.



> I can't begin to imagine what niche the likes of Howard Bandy has tapped




Niche' ??---what are you on about?
Define the type of Niche' you "think" he has tapped?


----------



## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> *I'm interested in your definition of "any period".*



Have a look at any calender and choose two different dates. e.g. 1/01/2003 to 17/7/2007 or 17/7/2007 to 3/3/2009. Can't define it any further but 'any' is quite varied.     



> It traded live for 7 yrs returning 1200% on initial investment----pretty ordinary--. Its still up on the site ----



Is this site Reefcap.com.au?



> Its also been tested to death by academics who's qualifications would have your head spinning---Ive not had any comments from any of them remotely reflecting your results.



As you have conveniently left out, the Amibroker version of techtrader I have shows very ordinary results so *again,* what is not right in that version. 



> But still I'm sure your definition of "any period" will be enlightening.



Only for you. 



> Very few traders reveal their trading system in detail. Especially if it works in flat and bear markets.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is *SERIOUSLY* the comment of a novice.
Click to expand...


But true regardless of whatever stage you think I'm at. 


> Niche' ??---what are you on about?
> Define the type of Niche' you "think" he has tapped?



The consistently profitable one.


----------



## AlterEgo

Wysiwyg said:


> [/B]Have a look at any calender and choose two different dates. e.g. 1/01/2003 to 17/7/2007 or 17/7/2007 to 3/3/2009. Can't define it any further but 'any' is quite varied.




Hi Wysiwyg,

I just ran that code, exactly as shown above, and ran it on the past 5 years of ASX data. I get an average annual return of around 38%. What are you getting?


----------



## AlterEgo

tech/a said:


> It traded live for 7 yrs returning 1200% on initial investment----




Hi Tech,

Just out of interest, what were the start and end dates for that 7 year period? I can check what Amibroker shows over that same period.


----------



## Wysiwyg

I have sourced a tech/a post on Compuvision from 2003 which states techtrader began trading in August 2002. That being 10 months earlier than the date the post below was made. The strong bull market started in January 2003. In retrospect, good timing for a long trend following system to begin and along with leverage the reason why such an "average system" did so well.


----------



## Wysiwyg

AlterEgo said:


> Hi Wysiwyg,
> 
> I just ran that code, exactly as shown above, and ran it on the past 5 years of ASX data. I get an average annual return of around 38%. What are you getting?



Hello AlterEgo. My test period was 5 years from 21/4/2006 to 21/4/2010 on circa 2000 ASX stocks, not All Ords.
My commision is set at $20, my % of entry bar volume is set at 10, my initial equity is 100k, no stops or profit targets set and buy on open next day after signal.


----------



## AlterEgo

Wysiwyg said:


> Hello AlterEgo. My test period was 5 years from 21/4/2006 to 21/4/2010 on circa 2000 ASX stocks, not All Ords.
> My commision is set at $20, my % of entry bar volume is set at 10, my initial equity is 100k, no stops or profit targets set and buy on open next day after signal.




Test over same period, commission $20, % entry bar volume set to 5, initial equity 100K, all stocks on ASX. Not sure why there'd be this much difference between your and mine!


----------



## Wysiwyg

These are the winning trades and most of the losing trades. Noticeably they are high dollar turnover stocks which plummeted significantly.


----------



## AlterEgo

Hmmm, you've only got 56 trades. Mine produced 332 trades over the same period. Not sure what's going on there.


----------



## Wysiwyg

AlterEgo said:


> Test over same period, commission $20, % entry bar volume set to 5, initial equity 100K, all stocks on ASX. Not sure why there'd be this much difference between your and mine!



Largest win of 64k is over 6 times the position value of 10k. Which stock was that over what period please.


----------



## AlterEgo

Wysiwyg said:


> Largest win of 64k is over 6 times the position value of 10k. Which stock was that over what period please.




Position value isn't 10K. Position value is 10% of equity, as per your code above.


----------



## Wysiwyg

AlterEgo said:


> Position value isn't 10K. Position value is 10% of equity, as per your code above.



 Yes okay. My postion value grew with equity marginally at the start but dropped with equity starting in June 2007. Are the stock tickers the same or do you have different stock tickers?


----------



## AlterEgo

The results are different each time it's run due to the PositionScore = Random() in the code. Running it again I've got an even higher profit. Here's the largest winners.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Your date range is 1 year out and the Apply To (top left) is set to "use filter". Apart from that I really don't know why my Amibroker run won't pick up the likes of OMH and MEO and DYL or MAK. They meet the volume criteria with my data. 

Very strange. I will look further into this later today and it would be good if we had a third Amibroker program result.


----------



## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> [/B]Have a look at any calender and choose two different dates. e.g. 1/01/2003 to 17/7/2007 or 17/7/2007 to 3/3/2009. Can't define it any further but 'any' is quite varied.
> 
> 
> Is this site Reefcap.com.au?




"The Chartist."
There are 1000s of posts on the topic with Amibroker and Bullcharts codes along with Metastock and Tradesim.



> As you have conveniently left out, the Amibroker version of techtrader I have shows very ordinary results so *again,* what is not right in that version.




Conveniently??? Hell I just designed the system its not up to me to make it profitable for *YOU*. Sort out your own issues---the only interest you have is to attempt to debunk it. 



> Only for you.




And for everyone else---its a *LONG TERM---LONG* system "Average " hold is over a year and many open positions lasted/last years.
Unless you included open profit *AND* tested any sample over 7plus years you'll *ALWAYS* get a crap result.



> But true regardless of whatever stage you think I'm at.




The novice statement--attempting to design a system which performs well LONG and expecting it to be profitable in bear and flat markets is plain stupid! 
If you designed a short system and found it in draw down in a bull market would you think its rubbish?????



> The consistently profitable one.




The mans attempting to make available his knowledge to the wider community---not generally available and using one of the most popular softwares around. All you can do is "can" everyone. Of course he makes a $$ from his travelling the world and years of experience and knowledge. He would be more acceptable/palatable if he gave his knowledge up for free!!??

*ON THAT*
There are a few posters on this site---you being one---who add *NOTHING OF VALUE* to this community. You stand sentinel and learner'd critique yet you offer nothing of value to those who are here for that sole reason. You constantly attack those who spend genuine hrs attempting to help those who ask---.

I look-forward to *YOUR* simple trading method/s.

My simplest is using bars only and averages 4 -8 bars in any periodicy.

I have around 15---but if you think I'm interested in furnishing serial pessimist's who cant be bothered spending the 10000 hrs and more than happy to spend those hrs attempting to debunk those who have---*think again.*

You wouldn't get this one either ---only that its been public 11 yrs and with stood 11 yrs of scrutiny---


----------



## AlterEgo

Wysiwyg said:


> Your date range is 1 year out and the Apply To (top left) is set to "use filter". Apart from that I really don't know why my Amibroker run won't pick up the likes of OMH and MEO and DYL or MAK. They meet the volume criteria with my data.
> 
> Very strange. I will look further into this later today and it would be good if we had a third Amibroker program result.




I found a slight error with my results - was trading at the Close instead of the Open, so I've added the lines
BuyPrice = Open;
SellPrice = Open;

Overall results are still fairly similar though. See the highest % winners attached.

BTW, my "Set Filter" is just set to "ASX Fully Paid Ordinary". I'm using Norgate Premium Data. See how your trades compare. Not sure why our results would differ so much.


----------



## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> Conveniently??? Hell I just designed the system its not up to me to make it profitable for *YOU*. Sort out your own issues---the only interest you have is to attempt to debunk it.



You need help with this word --*Comprehension*-- The question was "is the code correct" and the reason for this is so I can test it for myself. *You chose to go on the attack* from the outset rather than answer the question. Again -> dictionary -> COMPREHENSION.


> Unless you included open profit *AND* tested any sample over 7plus years you'll *ALWAYS* get a crap result.



 Now that is better. Test more than 7 years and include open profit.


> The novice statement--attempting to design a system which performs well LONG and expecting it to be profitable in bear and flat markets is plain stupid!



This next word you need to learn is CONTEXT. The sentence was not, repeat not (for the ignoramus within ), anyway connected to this tech trader system. Get it?? 


> The mans attempting to make available his knowledge to the wider community---not generally available and using one of the most popular softwares around. All you can do is "can" everyone. Of course he makes a $$ from his travelling the world and years of experience and knowledge. He would be more acceptable/palatable if he gave his knowledge up for free!!??



WTF is that all about?


> *ON THAT*
> There are a few posters on this site---you being one---who add *NOTHING OF VALUE* to this community. You stand sentinel and learner'd critique yet you offer nothing of value to those who are here for that sole reason. You constantly attack those who spend genuine hrs attempting to help those who ask---.



Now I call you a LIAR. Pull your head outa your puck. 


> I look-forward to *YOUR* simple trading method/s.



I am flattered but won't be revealing any of my systems on any forum. Mind your own  business.


> My simplest is using bars only and averages 4 -8 bars in any periodicy.



You're good. 



> I have around 15---but if you think I'm interested in furnishing serial pessimist's who cant be bothered spending the 10000 hrs and more than happy to spend those hrs attempting to debunk those who have---*think again.*



You're even better.



> You wouldn't get this one either ---only that its been public 11 yrs and with stood 11 yrs of scrutiny---



You're the best.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks for your kind words WYSY
Glad I have been able to help
Back to my throne


----------



## Boggo

Wysiwyg said:


> I am flattered but won't be revealing any of my systems on any forum. Mind your own  business.





I don't believe that anyone should be criticising the hard work or proven performance of others unless they are prepared to qualify themselves by putting their own system up for comparison or at least to show that they are willing to put as much effort into a system as they are in being negative about others.

Wysiwyg...
*Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people.*


----------



## Wysiwyg

AlterEgo said:


> I found a slight error with my results - was trading at the Close instead of the Open, so I've added the lines
> BuyPrice = Open;
> SellPrice = Open;
> 
> Overall results are still fairly similar though. See the highest % winners attached.
> 
> BTW, my "Set Filter" is just set to "ASX Fully Paid Ordinary". I'm using Norgate Premium Data. See how your trades compare. Not sure why our results would differ so much.



It has to be in the "settings...' part of Automatic Analysis. I want to find out why there is a large difference if you can notice. So I have these settings...


----------



## Wysiwyg

Boggo said:


> I don't believe that anyone should be criticising the hard work or proven performance of others unless they are prepared to qualify themselves by putting their own system up for comparison or at least to show that they are willing to put as much effort into a system as they are in being negative about others.



Oh I will question (not criticise) anyone who fronts up with a so called 'system' to prove or at least allow me to prove the authenticity. The trading game is about as transparent as User Names on forums with a large percentage of liars and thieves aiming to fleece the newbies of a buck. This quote below is in no way critical but true in comment.

"I have sourced a tech/a post on Compuvision from 2003 which states techtrader began trading in August 2002. That being 10 months earlier than the date the post below was made. The strong bull market started in January 2003. *In retrospect, good timing for a long trend following system to begin and along with leverage the reason why such an "average system" did so well." *



> Wysiwyg...
> *Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people.*



 In context, yes.


----------



## AlterEgo

Wysiwyg said:


> It has to be in the "settings...' part of Automatic Analysis. I want to find out why there is a large difference if you can notice. So I have these settings...




Here's mine


----------



## tech/a

Finally on this thread and topic.

A "Simple Trading System" was asked for.

Techtrader is arguably one of the most discussed and dissected systems out there--if you have others please post them up.
I never designed the system to be the best in the world or the best of anything really.
It was designed in an attempt to show that someone outside of the industry could in fact design a system that was long term profitable. Bandy suggests its not possible---I suggest it is---if I can do it ANYONE can do it---even if WYSY thinks there is no such animal.

CLICK TO EXPAND




There are over 55 threads and 2200 posts. All there as a template for those who wish to utilize it.
If you do you will also note there are 4 other important components to the system still not included in WYSY's testing. If you (WYSY) really want to find them then go pour through the threads and find them. Anyone else just private mail me.



> In retrospect, good timing for a long trend following system to begin and along with leverage the reason why such an "average system" did so well."




This last comment is not the first time to appear. So this is not the first time Ive answered it.
The system was designed for exactly the market that followed. It performed to the upper level of its range of minimum and maximum deviation.Testimony to its design and application.

The amusing thing I find with most newbies is that they expect a system to perform brilliantly in* ALL* market conditions. If it doesn't then its a failure??

I'm sure you'll find a Lamborghini a complete disaster off road.
Or a Golf Club pretty terrible for playing tennis.

If a system is "average" in conditions it wasn't designed for then thats exactly what would be expected----- in fact expectation would be failure
.
*The "Average" system did so well simply because it was designed to do so in exactly that type of market.
*
Had it performed "Averagely" in the market it was designed for then our pessimistic friend has a case.
It would then be "Average"

There is MUCH to be learned from those 2000 posts for those who invest in the Hrs and its FREE.

*So Finally*.
There are many many simple trading methods.
*But only 3 reasons WHY* a trading method can or will be profitable.
Unless you know them you simply wont know how to design a system---a profitable one anyway!
Ill leave you to WYZY to help you out with those.


----------



## Billyb

I was curious as to why the Amibroker back tests here produce such different results, so I did my own for comparison also. This is not to test TradeGuider, it's just for curiosity/learning about the Amibroker software, which I'm new to. I found my results closely matched WYSYWIG's. Not sure why it's so different to AlterEgo's but I do really want to know. Here are my settings up for analysis. I am just using an outdated (late 2010) Free Yahoo ticker list that I found on this forum so this will account for some differences, such as why I get less trades than Wysi.


----------



## Billyb

Results:


----------



## Billyb

One thing I have worked out is that the volume data from Yahoo is out by a factor of 1/100. Making this adjustment in the formula makes a huge difference - but still only an annual return of 6%, which is still much less than AlterEgo's.


----------



## Wysiwyg

That code runs at a loss during the GFC. It is a long only uptrend trader.

What about from 1 Jan 2010 to present????


----------



## Billyb

Wysiwyg said:


> That code runs at a loss during the GFC. It is a long only uptrend trader.
> 
> What about from 1 Jan 2010 to present????




$20000 loss.

There is definitely something wrong, even when I run the code during the bull market, eg 03-07, I am only getting about a 6% p/a return. I cant identify what the problem is..


----------



## tech/a

My my you still don't get it.

The average winning trade is over a year so testing it fir a few months is pointless.

You'll all get different results as the system spits out prospects which are different day after day so you'll be testing different portfolio constituents each run--- even with same start dates.

Yes the system was and is leveraged
The data base was and still is the BT MARGIN LIST because they could be leveraged.
10% of capital is position size and initial stop is 10 % of purchase price--- those who think about it a bit will see that that's only a 1 % risk on capital.

Those that also study the system will find that it closed ITSELF out of ALL open positions during the GFC.---you'd have been in cash.

Back to it

*WYSY*

Just checked your code.
The exit criteria is So far wrong it doesnt matter!

.
Who ever posted it up seems to have been stuffing around with the exit.
The exit is a Cross of the 180 day EMA of the LOW.

*No wonder you get crap results!!!!*

If your going to dissect it make sure your dissecting the right code.


----------



## Billyb

Yes Tech/A I already knew the exit criteria is wrong (I realised this after I went back and researched what TechTrader is) but that doesn't matter because I'm not trying to test the system, I'm trying to work out why results are differing so much. I already know your system worked very well for the market it was designed for.



tech/a said:


> You'll all get different results as the system spits out prospects which are different day after day so you'll be testing different portfolio constituents each run--- even with same start dates.
> .




This is not the reason tech/a, I've run the backtest enough times to cover for this inherent variation and it never produces results similar to AlterEgo - he has also run the test at least twice and the results are completely different to mine. I'm not sure what the reason is but that randomness is not enough to cause that big a difference.


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## tech/a

Try running 50000 portfolios like I have.
When you've done that you'll know what I'm talking about.

Alter the exit signal to start with
Do it properly or don't do it at all.
I don't mind the method being scrutinized but I draw the line at butchered

Rubbish in rubbish out


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## Billyb

tech/a said:


> Try running 50000 portfolios like I have.
> When you've done that you'll know what I'm talking about.
> 
> Alter the exit signal to start with
> Do it properly or don't do it at all.
> I don't mind the method being scrutinized but I draw the line at butchered
> 
> Rubbish in rubbish out




You don't get it Tech/A,I'm not interested in the system, I'm not trying to test it at all . The system would probably lose money in the current market so why would I be testing it's performance right now? I'm interested in the software/data and why there are differences. If you have nothing to say except comments to protect your pride/ego and some historical trading system then you are not helping with this!  I already know that the system works in the right conditions, I already said that, no butchering from me mate.


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## tech/a

Get a grip.

I'm telling you why your getting a difference and your
Not even interested.
Check your inputs make sure they are identical then settings then data
Then run Montecarlo analysis to check 1000s portfolios.

Only then will you see correlations
Single runs or even multiple runs can and will show massive differences.
Particularly if the system tested has huge swings in loss to profit.

Knock yourself out


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## Billyb

tech/a said:


> Check your inputs make sure they are identical then settings then data
> Then run Montecarlo analysis to check 1000s portfolios.
> 
> Only then will you see correlations
> Single runs or even multiple runs can and will show massive differences.
> Particularly if the system tested has huge swings in loss to profit.
> 
> Knock yourself out




Ok Thanks for the feedback.


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## TECM

Billyb said:


> Ok Thanks for the feedback.




Hi Billyb - I put a post for you on the system parameters link but I'm not sure it is what you are looking for or if it would be helpful.

Elizabeth


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