# ASX shockers



## skc (2 December 2016)

I am just starting a thread as a rolling record of some of the recent ASX shockers in terms of market expectation vs reality. I am talking about 15-25% moves here - most of these names relates to downgrades. I am predominately focused on larger stocks (few hundred $m) here. There are also the more drawn-out de-rating but I probably won't list all of them.

I am just doing this to remind myself some of these moves and whether these are becoming more frequent. Feel free to add to the list - I am sure I have missed plenty of obvious names.

BAL 2/12/2016
VOC 28/11/2016
KAR 21/11/2016
CSV 17/11/2016
ISD 17/11/2016
SCO 14/11/2016
FLT 4/11/2016
ADH 3/11/2016
VTG 31/10/2016
BGA 25/10/2016
HSO 21/10/2016
KCN 17/10/2016
OGC 27/9/2016
TPM 20/9/2016
SRF 30/8/2016
EHE 29/8/2016
BKL 24/8/2016
SMX 22/8/2016
APO 22/8/2016
GEM 16/8/2016
SWM 2/8/2016
AHY 22/7/2016
ASB 4/7/2016
FLT 24/5/2016
RMD 14/5/2016
MGC 27/4/2016
MEA 18/4/2016
NEC 4/5/2016
TPW 25/2/2016
FXL 17/2/2016
CVO 16/2/2016
OFX 8/2/2016
PRG 4/2/2016
KMD 2/2/2016
EPD 22/1/2016

ASB 10/12/2015
MRM 10/11/2015
SPO 2/12/2016
DSH 28/10/2015

MTS 5/12/2014
SRX 17/3/2014


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## Klogg (2 December 2016)

Hah, great idea.

Another to add:
SDI 23/11/16


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## skc (2 December 2016)

skc said:


> I am just starting a thread as a rolling record of some of the recent ASX shockers in terms of market expectation vs reality. I am talking about 15-25% moves here - most of these names relates to downgrades. I am predominately focused on larger stocks (few hundred $m) here. There are also the more drawn-out de-rating but I probably won't list all of them.
> 
> I am just doing this to remind myself some of these moves and whether these are becoming more frequent. Feel free to add to the list - I am sure I have missed plenty of obvious names.
> 
> ...




TRS 24/8/2016
TRS 19/10/2016


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## Klogg (2 December 2016)

IQE 29/01/16
IQE 27/09/16
NVT 11/07/14

Wow, these are far more common that I thought...


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## skc (2 December 2016)

ANN 4/2/2016
CIM 7/7/2016
CIM 20/7/2016
SGH Whole of 2015

I am going through my notes but surely there's an easier way to scan for these. Anyone know of a suitable tool?


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## macca (2 December 2016)

I feel it would make the thread more interesting if the pre announcement close and the post announcement close were included.

It would be quite simple to do when posting and would be great to look back on 6 and 12 months down the track.

Just a thought


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## skc (2 December 2016)

UGL 6/6/2016
CDD 2/12/2015
BKN 11/11/2015
BKN 28/1/2015

AYS 19/2/2016
LOV 28/1/2016


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## skc (2 December 2016)

macca said:


> I feel it would make the thread more interesting if the pre announcement close and the post announcement close were included.
> 
> It would be quite simple to do when posting and would be great to look back on 6 and 12 months down the track.
> 
> Just a thought




Yeah there's a lot more I plan to do with these... just listing the most basic of information down first.

- You can look at price action before the news.
- Whether the news was scheduled or not.
- Any dead cat bounce and what magnitude.
- If the close predict trading in the ensuing days.
- How much volume traded (vs shares on issue) whether that's a factor.
- Any particular analyst able to foresee the issue.
- Was the news internal or external to the company.

To post the pre/post announcement price you'd have to make sure you know the time of announcement as well...


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## Roller_1 (2 December 2016)

skc said:


> I am going through my notes but surely there's an easier way to scan for these. Anyone know of a suitable tool?





```
cond1 = ROC(C,1) < Param("% drop",-15,-100,100);

Filter = cond1;
```

Simple Amibroker exploration that should work.

252 stocks have fallen more than 20% since 1st jan 2013. In the all ords that is


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## skc (2 December 2016)

Roller_1 said:


> ```
> cond1 = ROC(C,1) < Param("% drop",-15,-100,100);
> 
> Filter = cond1;
> ...




Thanks. Unfortunately I don't have Amibroker!

I would be grateful if you can copy and paste the output or post a spreadsheet here.


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## Roller_1 (2 December 2016)

skc said:


> Thanks. Unfortunately I don't have Amibroker!
> 
> I would be grateful if you can copy and paste the output or post a spreadsheet here.




View attachment plummeting stocks.xlsx


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## Roller_1 (2 December 2016)

Keep in mind these are stocks currently in the All ords, no volume restrictions are in place. Can incorporate something if you like?


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## Newt (2 December 2016)

Dammit skc.  Why couldn't you have listed these 12 months ago


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## Miner (2 December 2016)

On  a different note on the same subject - just visit the recommendations on Motley Group's dividend investor recommendation to find many shockers 
LOL


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## Boggo (2 December 2016)

Miner said:


> On  a different note on the same subject - just visit the recommendations on Motley Group's dividend investor recommendation to find many shockers
> LOL




Haha, and they probably talk about the increasing dividend yield


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## Wysiwyg (2 December 2016)

Couple of things.
Do stocks in Sectors move generally in the same direction? Resource sector as most recent example. 
Does pessimistic market sentiment kill share prices of good businesses? There are periods when companies continue profiting yet the share price remains flat or receding. These periods can last a frustratingly long time.


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## skc (3 December 2016)

Roller_1 said:


> View attachment 68999




Thanks!



Roller_1 said:


> Keep in mind these are stocks currently in the All ords, no volume restrictions are in place. Can incorporate something if you like?




What you've sent is good enough. Thanks. The research is just a probe on some of my thoughts and it doesn't need to be totally comprehensive. Although the list is missing DSH.



Wysiwyg said:


> Do stocks in Sectors move generally in the same direction? Resource sector as most recent example.




Of course they do. Just look at A2M down 10% today from BAL's news. Resource sector is correlated because they are all moved by the price of the underlying commodity.



Wysiwyg said:


> Does pessimistic market sentiment kill share prices of good businesses?




I think there are 3 types of shockers. 
1. External shocks - like Rudd suddenly decided to kill the novated leasing perk in 2013 halving MMS.
2. Bad businesses that didn't get priced in bad enough - like SGH.
3. Good businesses that disappoints relative to sky high expectations.



Newt said:


> Dammit skc.  Why couldn't you have listed these 12 months ago




My list for 2017 will be available for purchase soon!

Using Roller_1's list and with my own 2 min cleaning, here's the count of shockers per year.

2013 - 8
2014 - 18
2015 - 29
2016 - 47

So perhaps it is happening more often.


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## odds-on (3 December 2016)

Brilliant thread. 

You mention bad businesses being a type of shocker. It made me think of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law - "90% of everything is cr@p". These shockers are inevitable as most of the underlying businesses are cr@p. It is just a matter of time.


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## So_Cynical (4 December 2016)

odds-on said:


> Brilliant thread.
> 
> You mention bad businesses being a type of shocker. It made me think of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law - "90% of everything is cr@p". These shockers are inevitable as most of the underlying businesses are cr@p. It is just a matter of time.




Of these shockers i would say more like 10% crap, 90% take your pick, 1 bad decision, multiple bad decisions, over reaching, failure to mitigate risk, disruption, collapsing commodity price etc etc.


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## Wysiwyg (4 December 2016)

skc said:


> I think there are 3 types of shockers.
> 1. External shocks - like Rudd suddenly decided to kill the novated leasing perk in 2013 halving MMS.
> 2. Bad businesses that didn't get priced in bad enough - like SGH.
> 3. Good businesses that disappoints relative to sky high expectations.



Another reason is negative broker rating and especially if it is via a news article which catches many off guard.


Stefan stock investor = why is BCA tanking?
Erney ear to the wall = AFR story.


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## mcgrath111 (9 December 2016)

SRX 09/12/2016  35%! Ouchhh


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## galumay (9 December 2016)

Did VOC get mentioned?


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## skc (9 December 2016)

mcgrath111 said:


> SRX 09/12/2016  35%! Ouchhh




Ouch indeed.



galumay said:


> Did VOC get mentioned?




It was second name mentioned on the first post.


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## galumay (10 December 2016)

skc said:


> It was second name mentioned on the first post.




Yeah....well I can see that now. *heads off to optometrist*


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## mcgrath111 (10 December 2016)

How about AAD - 22/11/2016 

Beyond me why people are buying into this considering the dreamworld shutdown & lawsuits to follow. 
Each to their own.


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## So_Cynical (10 December 2016)

mcgrath111 said:


> How about AAD - 22/11/2016
> 
> Beyond me why people are buying into this considering the dreamworld shutdown & lawsuits to follow.
> Each to their own.




Contrarian
noun
1.
a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion, especially in stock exchange dealing.
"it has become fashionable to be a stock-market contrarian"


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## UMike (13 December 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> Contrarian
> ...
> "it has become fashionable to be a stock-market contrarian"



Yea but is it profitable????


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## pixel (13 December 2016)

UMike said:


> Yea but is it profitable????




that depends...
Some traders decide to take a contrarian stance where the Market at large got it wrong. 
e.g. buying PRG in November around $1.40 could be considered contrarian.
Or when BAL comes out of its t/halt, I might again take a contrarian approach.
But those occasions are few and far between.


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## So_Cynical (13 December 2016)

UMike said:


> Yea but is it profitable????




Sure can but like all strategy's some discipline in capital allocation and stock selection is required.

A falling share price sparks the interest, an examination of the reasons why the price is falling and the fundamentals of the business leads to an assessment of the level of over selling or not.

Knife selection - some knifes are judged to be too difficult and or to dangerous to catch, others not so and then its a decision of when to catch, choose your knife and then choose the time, half the time you wont have much time before the knife transforms into a rising knife. 

------------------------------

Example: CKF floated in late 2011 at $2.50 a couple of shock announcements later and the SP was trading at around $1 per share, that got my interest and started some discussion at ASF.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23212

I entered a little early at $1.06 and watched the knife fall at little further to around 90c from memory and then witnessed the slow and steady rise, i did my usual de-risk part exit a month later at $1.11 a little early as per usual and then held my remaining shares for the next 4 and a half years collecting many dividends along the way the selling half my shares yesterday for a profit of 504%
~


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## galumay (13 December 2016)

UMike said:


> Yea but is it profitable????




As others have posted, it certainly can be. I did very well with CDA after the market slashed their price on the back of some events I considered to be one offs and not reflective of the true value of the business, I also have done well with buying MMS after they were hammered by proposed legislative change (that I correctly assessed would never happen), and NWH - a case where I held prior to bad news that absolutely crashed the price, i grabbed at the 'falling knife" all the way down and am now over 100% in profit. I recently bought VOC at low $4 believing the market was wrong again - time will tell if i am correct or not. I have got it wrong too sometimes! VET i lost everything - but i did have a very small position due to the catastrophic risk.


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## ROE (13 December 2016)

galumay said:


> As others have posted, it certainly can be. I did very well with CDA after the market slashed their price on the back of some events I considered to be one offs and not reflective of the true value of the business, I also have done well with buying MMS after they were hammered by proposed legislative change (that I correctly assessed would never happen), and NWH - a case where I held prior to bad news that absolutely crashed the price, i grabbed at the 'falling knife" all the way down and am now over 100% in profit. I recently bought VOC at low $4 believing the market was wrong again - time will tell if i am correct or not. I have got it wrong too sometimes! VET i lost everything - but i did have a very small position due to the catastrophic risk.




Contrian works provided you do the homework and know the business, buying just because something has fallen could be bad for your capital as in my case  with VET

I lost on VET but there is no love lost there, it part of the risk most other pick paid off handsomely to cover a few of VET event.

I put in 30-40K in VET and lost it all but that didnt even make much difference to my return for the year the others stock more than covered it.

in hindsight VET was a bad move and I take steps not to do it again , I was having a lot of 
cash back then as I cash out some of the large wind fall and rush to deploy the cash, bad move just like Warren Buffett when he has too much cash he buy ****ty business like Airlines


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## ROE (13 December 2016)

UMike said:


> Yea but is it profitable????




Very profitable, I been doing it for years not a single year of negative return  even with a flop and ****ty pick throwed in every now and then.

A lot of stocks the guys mentioned here I do own and bought during their fall like CKF, CCP, SIQ, PGH etc ... look at them now crazy return

and many years ago I have DMP when it beaten and bruise by the keyboard warrior about people not eating pizza cos it is unhealthy but that the one I sold way too early hehe


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## mcgrath111 (13 December 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> Contrarian
> noun
> 1.
> a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion, especially in stock exchange dealing.
> "it has become fashionable to be a stock-market contrarian"



Nearly all the stocks I pick are falling, so that would make a fashionable contrarian 

I like to think theres a difference between being contrarian in stocks that are no long loved & stocks that have heavy future law suits to follow. 

...on a side note PAC looks like its heading back down again.


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## So_Cynical (14 December 2016)

mcgrath111 said:


> Nearly all the stocks I pick are falling, so that would make a fashionable contrarian
> 
> I like to think theres a difference between being contrarian in stocks that are no long loved & stocks that have heavy future law suits to follow.




AAD ok, the market hates big legal action, AAD will have insurance of course, Insurance company may well write them a small check and walk away, could be any of those last resort insurers.

I made a great trade on Suncorp once after that massive SEQ flood, shareholders panic first and ask questions later, disaster can be very profitable, one of my first ever successful trades was STO after their plant blew up.



mcgrath111 said:


> ...on a side note PAC looks like its heading back down again.




Double bottom, $3.60 ish???

In comparison this is SP weakness without disaster.


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## PZ99 (15 December 2016)

LWP... down 80%; there's a dedicated thread on another site for investors who lost money on this, some in the tens of thousands


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## skc (19 December 2016)

PRU 16/12/2016
TRY 15/12/2016

RE: discussions on contrarians.

Interesting discussion guys. The contrarians approach wouldn't suit everyone because many people  
- don't have to skill to analyse the situation clearly
- don't have the discipline to size position correctly
- don't have the stomach and patience to hold, especially when things get offside

This was a great piece by Forager earlier this year one BAL vs WHC. 



> On 10 February this year, Whitehaven’s share price hit a low of $0.365, giving it a market capitalisation of $362 million. On that day you could have bought the entire company* three times *over with the market capitalisation of Bellamy’s Australia (it closed at $11.55 per share, giving it a market capitalisation of $1.1 billion).




https://foragerfunds.com/bristlemouth/why-coal-could-be-a-better-bet-than-baby-food/

Today WHC has market cap of $2.7B while BAL has shrunk to $650m... and the ratio will look even worse/better when BAL comes out of suspension later this week.

Being contrarian is all about questioning the prevailing expectations. ASX shockers are names where prevailing expectations turned out to be very wrong.


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## galumay (19 December 2016)

We can probably add MYX, down nearly 50% on year highs, another potential contrarian play.


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## skc (19 December 2016)

galumay said:


> We can probably add MYX, *down nearly 50% on year highs*, another potential contrarian play.




Careful using that as your starting point (I am sure your analysis runs deeper than that). It's down 50% from year high which was 100%+ from the start of the year. It could mean the stock is oversold or it could mean the stock was simply overbought (the answer's somewhere in between no doubt). And on that basis I don't qualify MYX as _shocker_.

As I said I think a lot of stuff got overbought this year prior to the last quarter. It's not showing on the capitalisation-weighted index because asx20 is doing so well. But there's a correction happening in that space whether there are seemingly bad/one-off news or not. Good examples include IPD, CAT, IFN, NTC, PME, ADA, WEB, NXT etc.


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## craft (20 December 2016)

skc said:


> Being contrarian is all about questioning the prevailing expectations. ASX shockers are names where prevailing expectations turned out to be very wrong.





But in the long run will it be the prevailing expectations before the price plunge or after the price plunge that turn out to best represent the long term prospects of the company? However severe, short term price action doesn't seem to me to contain a lot of thoughtful information about long term prospects. Welcome back stock pickers market - I have missed you as the P/E's climbed in some of the area's that I like to hunt. 


I hate the term contrarian - As an individual with individual opinions and ideas about some things, sometimes I disagree with the market and sometimes I agree. So am I a conformist or a contrarian? Taking action tends to be most wealth creative when you disagree (_and the big caveat - you are right_) with the market, so the action from that perspective may be generally contrarian, but being contrarian at all times and in all aspects which is how the contrarian label tends to be popularly conceived is not descriptive at all of good investing IMO.


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## skc (21 December 2016)

TCH  21/12/2016


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## So_Cynical (21 December 2016)

skc said:


> TCH  21/12/2016




Wow thats interesting.


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## skc (28 December 2016)

AKP 28/12/2016


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## Boggo (28 December 2016)

skc said:


> AKP 28/12/2016




A continuation of the pattern its been in since early August, stops triggering stops I'd say skc.
This is an example of where a weekly chart can sometimes shed more light on the trend.

(click to expand)


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## skc (13 January 2017)

BAL 11/1/2016

There has been a few "reverse shockers" of late especially in the uranium space... but I am a bit too lazy to list them all here.


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## PZ99 (13 January 2017)

FOD was a 2016 shocker down 70% but is something of a reverse in the last couple of days.


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## So_Cynical (14 January 2017)

PZ99 said:


> FOD was a 2016 shocker down 70% but is something of a reverse in the last couple of days.



Huh - FOD is getting hammered...but could find bottom soon.


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## PZ99 (14 January 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> Huh - FOD is getting hammered...but could find bottom soon.



Yeah you're right. It looked good a couple of days back. Glad I sold it when I did.


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## skc (23 January 2017)

BXB 23/01/2017


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## Oztap (23 January 2017)

skc said:


> BXB 23/01/2017



Noob question here,
But what causes a stock to gap down 15%plus?


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## McLovin (23 January 2017)

Oztap said:


> Noob question here,
> But what causes a stock to gap down 15%plus?



 A profit downgrade. Companies on 24x earnings can't be forecasting 3% underlying npat growth.


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## skc (30 January 2017)

2 profit downgrades today
ACX 30/1/2017
SRV 30/1/2017

And a mop up takeover bid
WCB 30/1/2017


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## skyQuake (30 January 2017)

IIL - No idea what they do, but look at that chart!


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## skc (30 January 2017)

skyQuake said:


> IIL - No idea what they do, but look at that chart!




No idea why it went up 100% in Jan either. I guess one can only blame gravity.


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## luutzu (30 January 2017)

skyQuake said:


> IIL - No idea what they do, but look at that chart!




Research into MS. The only (maybe) viable drug for certain type of MS with a major study ending sometime before this June.

If the study result is positive, a big chance it'll be acquire by some major drug company. If it fails then down the tube it goes.

I saw it back last Oct but thought it's too risky as I know nothing about MS and with only one drug and no income so passed on it. That was when it's around $0.60s. I look pretty stupid as it goes to the $1.80s... not so stupid now but who knows how the study will turn out. I have a feeling it'll be positive but yea.

If it's any guide, John Rubino of MND was the top 20 shareholders couple of years ago. He could still be holding just others have skipped ahead of the holdings.


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## pixel (30 January 2017)

skc said:


> No idea why it went up 100% in Jan either. I guess one can only blame gravity.



In early January, they came out with a "forward-looking statement" about trials to combat MS. Someone may have an insight into the odds of success (or otherwise).




... and then there is the Trump effect that's holding even more successful Bio/ Pharma companies back. Maybe the cash transfer from $AUS to $USA wasn't such a good idea after all?


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## peter2 (30 January 2017)

Who thought this list was going to get much longer. The next reporting season is going to be very interesting. 

ACX blames Brexit and Trump. How pathetic.


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## skc (31 January 2017)

Fall
VRT 31/1/2017
SLX 31/1/2017 

Rise
IIL 31/1/2017


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## skc (1 February 2017)

3 new shockers today
OFX 1/2/2017 Profit warning
GBT 1/2/2017 Profit warning
SEA 1/2/2017 Poor quarterly

2017 Count = 12.


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## PZ99 (1 February 2017)

Been watching NVT of late.. -9% YTD. Revenue down.


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## pixel (1 February 2017)

NOR is another hyped-up one heading South


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## skyQuake (2 February 2017)

OGC - 02/02/2017 Mine suspended 'again'


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## skc (2 February 2017)

skyQuake said:


> OGC - 02/02/2017 Mine suspended 'again'




I can't believe how high OGC traded given this was hanging over their head.

Also today...
DOW 2/2/2017 +13% (was +20% at one stage) Profit beat
ELX 2/2/2017 -10% (was -15% at one stage) Profit downgrade


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## So_Cynical (2 February 2017)

skc said:


> 3 new shockers today
> GBT 1/2/2017 Profit warning




Came very close to buying GBT a few weeks ago, bullet dodged...im starting to think that we may be a approaching a sell everything moment, all this negativity - Trump, Brexit, the Russians, EU break up, oh and the ever present China debt blow up.


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## skc (2 February 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> im starting to think that we may be a approaching a sell everything moment, all this negativity - Trump, Brexit, the Russians, EU break up, oh and the ever present China debt blow up.




It's been 10 years so probably about time. Apparently a year ending in 7 is usually bad in terms of market.
2007 GFC
1997 Asian financial crisis
1987 Black Monday crash

Should probably bring this discussion to this thread.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...ets-traders-banter.24462/page-212#post-936254

Back to Shockers... here's Charlie Aitken talking about the market on Sky. A few shockers got mentioned.

http://www.switzer.com.au/video/charlie-aitken-20170131/

FWIW, I think there's a fair chance DMP will make it onto this list at some stage. Increase wage, Sunday surcharge, CEO acting like a precious prince who no one can criticise, ultra high expectations AND a falling share price chart...


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## skyQuake (3 February 2017)

skc said:


> FWIW, I think there's a fair chance DMP will make it onto this list at some stage. Increase wage, Sunday surcharge, CEO acting like a precious prince who no one can criticise, ultra high expectations AND a falling share price chart...



Anecdotally speaking, deliveroo, uberEats, foodora, menulog etc have been stealing their lunch!


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## Boggo (3 February 2017)

skc said:


> ....
> 
> FWIW, I think there's a fair chance *DMP* will make it onto this list at some stage. Increase wage, Sunday surcharge, CEO acting like a precious prince who no one can criticise, ultra high expectations AND a falling share price chart...




Weekly chart gave a bit of a warning a while ago. I have never held it, should have though 

(click to expand)


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## Knobby22 (3 February 2017)

The name DMP (dump) was a giveaway


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## skc (8 February 2017)

GMA 8/2/2017 - poor 2017 outlook


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## skc (9 February 2017)

CL1 +16.7% 9/2/2017 - Good half yearly update
BWX +16.0% 9/2/2017 - Good half yearly update

Both these companies have reported excellent operational performance... however it's hard to know what is a "reasonable price" to pay for them. They have traded somewhere between PE 20-60x in the past 12 months.... that's a big range.

PDN +15.5% 9/2/2017 - Uranium is hot...


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## PZ99 (10 February 2017)

I guess I can put HOT in here as it's not exactly setting the world on fire


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## skc (15 February 2017)

skc said:


> FWIW, I think there's a fair chance DMP will make it onto this list at some stage. Increase wage, Sunday surcharge, CEO acting like a precious prince who no one can criticise, ultra high expectations AND a falling share price chart...




-12.5% with about 1 hour to go. Come on DMP... you can do it.


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## pixel (15 February 2017)

PRY
Market didn't like the report. 4.8cFF divi is also underwhelming for a $4 wannabe.


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## skc (16 February 2017)

16/2/2017 SGH - Slator and Gordon... you've done it again. -25% on market update. Still cashflow negative. Recapitalisation needed. How can the market not know that?!?!

16/2/2017 EVT - It was down 15% at one stage. Apparently Star Wars:The Rouge One was nowhere near as good as Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Also worthy of mention:
HSN - Down over 20% at one stage on the half year report. Growth's a bit low for 30x PE I guess.


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## Newt (16 February 2017)

skc said:


> 16/2/2017 SGH - Slator and Gordon... you've done it again. -25% on market update. Still cashflow negative. Recapitalisation needed. How can the market not know that?!?!




But SGH was clearly a winner, not that long ago!......
https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2015/November/Slater-and-Gordon.aspx


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## pixel (20 February 2017)

WOR - even after 3 Class actions, they still haven't changed their reporting habits.


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## skc (20 February 2017)

CSV 20/2/2017 This is the 3rd time in the last 6 month that CSV has been smashed on falling financial metrics. Share price went from $1.60 as recently as August to 46c today.


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## skc (22 February 2017)

Plenty of reporting entities today and plenty of big movers. Of note:

22/2/2017
ISD -35% - It's not a growth stock anymore!\
TWR +17% - Takeover war brewing
GFY -15% - You guys suck!

Other noted movers that didn't meet the 15% cutoff included BKL, VOC, WTC, MMS, HLO

And on the specie end:
ERA -13% - Uranium cooling
LYC - 12.5% - Cooling after a strong run


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## pixel (23 February 2017)

23/2/17: 
AAD as if the recent fatalities weren't enough bad news 
LYC
ARU - after all the REO excitement, a reality check was needed


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## skc (23 February 2017)

Plenty of reporting, plenty of movers
AAD -22% - Dreamworld tragedy, poor main event sales. Opened flat.
TCH +25% - Merger with AFY at 50% premium.
EHE +14% - No more bad news
XIP -19% - Whenever you see private equity listing companies in the same sector in quick succession (IPH, XIP, QIP), stay alert.
SKT -12% - NZ blocks merger with Vodafone on competition grounds. Seems pretty silly to me. The competition to cable TV these days is just about the entire internet.


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## pixel (24 February 2017)

A3D -13%; What a placement is that? $2.50 at a time when the Market paid over $1 more?


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## skc (28 February 2017)

27/2/2017 Almost the end of reporting season

SGH - 20% - Writes down all of the transformative acquisition. How to burn $1.5B in 18 months.
ICQ +18% - Delayed reaction to Friday's report?
ADH -15% - Another private equity retail business off the rails.


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## peter2 (28 February 2017)

<=== Before reporting season

After ...


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## Tightwad (28 February 2017)

yep glad it's almost over, made the mistake of buying into RCG before the report came out


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## pixel (28 February 2017)

EOS -18%


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## pixel (28 February 2017)

ORE - 35% from January High
Apparently, producing stuff doesn't cut it. One has to talk about exploration and hint at what might be down there...


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## skc (28 February 2017)

End of reporting season sees plenty of smaller stocks reporting...

CMP - 33%, EOS -19%, EGH -14%. I didn't read their reports. I can only assume things weren't as expected.
SGH - 20%.  The hall of fame.
ORE -15%. Big production cut.
SPO -14%. Soft result.

WOR +32%. Takeover rejected @ $11.80. Strategic stake acquired @ $10.55. Been a wild 2 weeks even by WOR's standard.



peter2 said:


> <=== Before reporting season
> 
> After ...
> View attachment 70116




Lol. Overall a C- reporting season for me trading wise... didn't nearly capture enough of the opportunities on offer.


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## Boggo (28 February 2017)

skc said:


> ...
> 
> Lol. Overall a C- reporting season for me trading wise... didn't nearly capture enough of the opportunities on offer.




I feel the same, very erratic environment at the moment imo.
Took profit on SLR today and got stopped out of IGO for a loss.

Holding on to a few that are keeping things in the green, every day seems to be a different market, no consistency.


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## skc (2 March 2017)

First day of March. No more reporting for a while and one would expect much less shockers in the bigger end of town except for M&A.

SGH - 27%. Well at this rate it won't make it on the list in 2 weeks.
MRM -23%. Operating metrics yet to bottom.

DFM +16%. A Chinese company paying dividend for a second time? Amazing!


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## skc (2 March 2017)

Mostly smaller companies (3 used to be bigger).

SGH +40%. 4 Days in a row! This time a bounce.
WLD +21%. Some rich person bought a stake/steak.
FRM +22%. Recovered most of the fall since the report.
ASH -29%. Resumed trading after 4 month suspension.

And an honourable mention to ZYL.

Last traded 0.7c per share back in late 2013. Went thru a recapitalisation and 100:1 consolidation and today closed at 1.8c. So effectively a drop of 97.4% thank you very much.


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## MrChow (5 March 2017)

1 in 13 profitable companies in 2016 are down more than -50% in share price from their 12 month peak.

1 in 4 unprofitable companies in 2016 are down more than -50% in share price from their 12 month peak.


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## Muschu (5 March 2017)

Friends "confessed" to me yesterday [with some embarrassment] that they bought SGH at $6.58 and still hold them..... 

Quite some time ago I bought AGO [somewhere around the time they made an acquisition - was it Aurox?] and sold at a good profit.
BUT sometime later I bought again around $1.30 and bailed at about $1.03.  Very pleased I decided not to hang around  
But not saying either that AGO have no future prospects as I simply don't know.


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## skc (5 March 2017)

MrChow said:


> 1 in 13 profitable companies in 2016 are down more than -50% in share price from their 12 month peak.
> 
> 1 in 4 unprofitable companies in 2016 are down more than -50% in share price from their 12 month peak.




Interesting stat. Did you compile these or read it somewhere?


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## skc (6 March 2017)

6/3/2017 NVT -15%. Major government contract loss resulting in a $12-14m EBITDA downgrade.
6/3/2017 SGH -16%. The end might be near according to this SMH article. http://www.smh.com.au/business/slat...e-wipeout-in-rescue-plan-20170305-gur3h7.html


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## MrChow (6 March 2017)

Compiled them myself using a screener, the approximate numbers are:

50 out of 700 companies with a P/E are 50% off their 52 week high.

EG.  VMT, MBE, BAL, PRO, SIT, ACR, ISD, VOC, SRX, BKL, TRS, TPM

400 out of 1300 companies with a Negative ROE are 50% off their 52 week high.

EG. 1PG, RFN, ZIP, CVT, SGH, XPE, RNT, YOW, PDN, CL8, TNT, MRM


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## peter2 (12 March 2017)

I presume a number of ASX shockers (featured in this thread) have been tossed out of a few indices in the latest S&P update. 

Every index is an individual rotational trading system.


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## skc (21 March 2017)

21/3/2017
BAL +15.7%, BKL +13.1% - both benefited from a change in Chinese cross border e-commerce regulation
MSB +12.7% - been strong of late with new flow relating to various development
SPO +49% - A massive takeover premium thanks to DOW taking a punt


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## skc (23 March 2017)

23/3/2017
QIN - The rebranded TFC in cross hair of shorters

24/3/2017
DOW - just per-empting.


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## skc (30 March 2017)

Just filling out a few days that I missed

24/3/2017 DOW -18% - cap raising fail
27/3/2017 MYR +18% - large block trade, takeover rumber
30/3/2017 KAR -18% - sale process withdrawn


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## VSntchr (4 April 2017)

4/4/2017 VTG-15% - Media rumours on TLS store contract changes


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## skc (4 April 2017)

VSntchr said:


> 4/4/2017 VTG-15% - Media rumours on TLS store contract changes



Make that -21% on the close. 

Also worth mentioning... 

OHE -18% on profit warning yesterday. Stock closed at $1.3 having traded at almost $5 less than 12 months ago. It's New Zealand's answer to ACX in the Australian market.


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## skc (10 April 2017)

7/4/2017 TRS -35.5% on profit warning.

10/4/2017 MOE +38%. A new listing of stock broker Moelis made an impressive debut.


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## skc (10 April 2017)

10/4/2017 TRS -18.6% on day 2. Impressive.


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## skc (18 April 2017)

18/4/2017 TPM -16%. Spoils the mobile profit pool for all Telcos, trashes own share price. 

Honourable mention:
LAA -22%. Comes out of 4 month suspensions after prolonged capital raising.
RSG -12%. GDX/GDXJ weighing methodology changes are causing random havoc among goldies. This is perhaps a lens to the future if/when ETFs become a large enough slice of any market.


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## skc (27 April 2017)

27/4/2017
TEN -19%. Free-to-air Tele is dead... long live the tele. TEN's largest shareholders are young Murdoch, Packer and Gina Reinhart.... so they don't get it right all the time.

For the hedge funds with really long term views must shortly have positions in SWM and NEC... probably a rare example of short-and-hold type stock.


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## McLovin (27 April 2017)

skc said:


> 27/4/2017
> TEN -19%. Free-to-air Tele is dead... long live the tele. TEN's largest shareholders are young Murdoch, Packer and Gina Reinhart.... so they don't get it right all the time.
> 
> For the hedge funds with really long term views must shortly have positions in SWM and NEC... probably a rare example of short-and-hold type stock.




The UBS report re cricket rights is interesting given our discussion last week.


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## skc (27 April 2017)

McLovin said:


> The UBS report re cricket rights is interesting given our discussion last week.




Damned if you do and damned if you don't. There is no out for TV really.


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## McLovin (27 April 2017)

skc said:


> Damned if you do and damned if you don't. There is no out for TV really.




Who'd a thunk 10-15 years ago you could buy a TV network for $160m....plus debt of course.


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## MrChow (28 April 2017)

Pro Sports would not be wanting to see 1 bidder for broadcasting rights if the death spiral continues.


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## skc (1 May 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> 27% one day fall - one for the ASX shockers thread now.




Thanks @So_Cynical.

2nd downgrade in 3 months is not a good thing. Probably a reasonable buy if there's a 3rd downgrade.


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## So_Cynical (2 May 2017)

skc said:


> Thanks @So_Cynical.
> 
> 2nd downgrade in 3 months is not a good thing. Probably a reasonable buy if there's a 3rd downgrade.




Because these things come in 3's right, tempted to have a bite on the open.


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## skc (2 May 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> Because these things come in 3's right, tempted to have a bite on the open.




Just an old saying.. there's no statistical fact to back the statement "downgrade comes in 3s".


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## skc (2 May 2017)

2/5/2017
RCG +15.7% - A very solid bounce from yesterday's carnage
MMJ -7.8%; ZLD -15%; SCU -24% - The cannabis sector getting smoked after their massive spike in March.
TLG -15% - Doubled since early March but seems to be reversing now.
MGC -14% - Writedowns galore. May not have enough milk, and certainly not enough dosh to pay dividend.
PLS +20.6% - Offtake and finance deal.

3/5/2017
VOC?


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## PZ99 (3 May 2017)

VOC down 29% today. 

LRS down 40% ytd...


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## helpme (3 May 2017)

One more shocker. PGH is > 10% down in the morning. Strange thing is that there is no bad news recently to provoke such a big fall. Anyone knows better? I would like to know as I am personally affected by the big loss.


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## skc (3 May 2017)

helpme said:


> One more shocker. PGH is > 10% down in the morning. Strange thing is that there is no bad news recently to provoke such a big fall. Anyone knows better? I would like to know as I am personally affected by the big loss.




There is bad news hidden in the presentation out Tuesday after close. 

There will be growth in NPAT but that comes from acquisitions rather than underlying like-for-like growth. In other words, they can buy growth but existing business ain't doing better. PE's a bit high and it's ran hard of late so 10% fall is more than justified. Probably more in the coming days...


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## helpme (3 May 2017)

skc said:


> There is bad news hidden in the presentation out Tuesday after close.
> 
> There will be growth in NPAT but that comes from acquisitions rather than underlying like-for-like growth. In other words, they can buy growth but existing business ain't doing better. PE's a bit high and it's ran hard of late so 10% fall is more than justified. Probably more in the coming days...




Thanks for the answer. Both the market and savvy investors like you are smarter. I deserve to lose money.


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## skc (3 May 2017)

3/5/2017
VOC -27% Big profit downgrade for H2
ISD +13% Reaffirmed guidance and painted a positive picture of possible turnaround.


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## PZ99 (4 May 2017)

IAM down 28% - looks like they walked away from whatever the magic deal was.


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## helpme (4 May 2017)

Not sure if this counts as a shocker by this thread's standard. But by forex standard, it is quite a big drop and affects EVERYONE here. Nobody can run away from the Aussie dollar. One can avoid stocks but no one can avoid currency.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...ar-taken-to-the-cleaners-20170503-gvyf4y.html

_The local currency "has been taken to the cleaners", said IG Markets's institutional dealer Chris West. The Aussie fell 1.5 per cent to US74.21¢, its lowest since January 11._


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## skc (4 May 2017)

4/5/2017
MSB -15% Time to take a breather at least given the recent strong run.
GEG +24% Takeover bid by ECX
BBN +13% A bounce after prolonged downtrend. 

Honourable mentions:
ADA -10% on profit downgrade, down 25% at the low
CAN +115%, THC +102.5% - 2 new floats in the cannabis space


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## So_Cynical (4 May 2017)

skc said:


> 4/5/2017
> GEG +24% Takeover bid by ECX




Another Month another Takeover, portfolio fell $1200 with VOC a few days ago and now back up $1200 with GEG...ill have to come up with a figure but i reckon about 1 in 4 of my stocks have been taken over.


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## MrChow (5 May 2017)

This thread is getting more HC with the spec gains mentioned.


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## PZ99 (5 May 2017)

Took a bet on OOO etf today at yearly lows... wish me luck.. LOL


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## skc (10 May 2017)

10/5/2017

QIN -44%. Free research done by short seller and some holders just don't want to know about it. Anyone caught with this is just.... unfortunate. 
CSR -11.8%. Mostly inline result but stock's ran pretty hot into it. Only back to where it was 2 weeks ago.


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## pixel (11 May 2017)

THD after yesterday's presentation of their new app left the Twitterati Set unimpressed


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## MrChow (11 May 2017)

Vita Group -30%

Why do people go into stores to get Telstra products anyway.


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## Tightwad (11 May 2017)

More of an issue with TLS trying to extract more out of VTG really, they still make a lot of sales.  There's still a big market of users who don't buy off the net, also they have more complex products and plans and telstra stuffups to deal with.  I doubt TLS knows what they're doing and VTG write in opaque buzzwords so the market is unsure of what's happening, sold most of my holding a while ago - shareholders were kept in the dark.


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## skc (17 May 2017)

MrChow said:


> Vita Group -30%
> 
> Why do people go into stores to get Telstra products anyway.




De Javu...
17/5/2017 

VTG -30% Telstra turning the screw again
PDN -29.5% Resumed trading after long suspension


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## Gringotts Bank (17 May 2017)

skc said:


> De Javu...
> 17/5/2017
> 
> VTG -30% Telstra turning the screw again
> PDN -29.5% Resumed trading after long suspension




A+ for investing.  C- for French!


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## skc (18 May 2017)

18/5/2017

SRX -28.3%. Another trial, another miss in primary objective.
IPD +39%. Some clinical study success. Will it be enough to sustain a reversal of the major downtrend since Nov?
APX +26%. Upgrades profit to 40-50% growth. Don't see that a lot these days.


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## skc (23 May 2017)

23/5/2017

OFX +17%. No bad news = good enough. May even be a turnaround story.


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## JTLP (24 May 2017)

Sigma is getting heat for a combo of slow start to the year and My Chemist wanting to pull orders


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## skc (24 May 2017)

JTLP said:


> Sigma is getting heat for a combo of slow start to the year and My Chemist wanting to pull orders




24/5/2017
SIG -31%. Commencing legal action against their biggest customer, soft trading condition, and a profit downgrade less than 4 weeks after the AGM... that's a bad run.

ALQ +12.8%. Solid report.


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## PZ99 (8 June 2017)

PZ99 said:


> Took a bet on OOO etf today at yearly lows... wish me luck.. LOL



Good luck emboldens this black duck to have another go at this evil etf today @13.16


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## skc (8 June 2017)

7/6/2017 VOC +20%. KKR comes in with $3.50 bid.


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## PZ99 (13 June 2017)

PZ99 said:


> LWP... down 80%; there's a dedicated thread on another site for investors who lost money on this, some in the tens of thousands



LWP Technologies destroying millions > http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-13/lwp-shareholders-seek-answers-over-lost-millions/8610092

No buyers, plenty of sellers. They can't even sell for a tenth of a cent. Blurry hell !

Maybe they should go with pot and relist as "POL"


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## pixel (13 June 2017)

VLW - http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01864951

It seems the Market doesn't believe in Plumpton.


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## JTLP (21 June 2017)

RFG and QBE for a -10%?


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## skc (21 June 2017)

16 Jun 2017
ADH +47%. Giant move on not much real news - not something you see everyday. 

Some lines were crossed which signaled to the market that the seller's done, and guidance reaffirmed in response to the ASX speeding ticket.



JTLP said:


> RFG and QBE for a -10%?




Yes... meaningful moves on profit downgrade. I thought QBE might move a bit more given how strong it's been....


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## kid hustlr (3 July 2017)

FXJ down 10% on Friday

Monday morning the PE bid is pulled.

I mean what is ASIC doing?


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## skc (3 July 2017)

kid hustlr said:


> FXJ down 10% on Friday
> 
> Monday morning the PE bid is pulled.
> 
> I mean what is ASIC doing?




What do you mean re: ASIC? Do you mean the trading on Friday? That was due to an Australian article about one bidder (H&F) wouldn't submit a bid in time... turned out that it was TPG who walked away on top of no other bids received.


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## kid hustlr (3 July 2017)

I meant ASIC as in referring to suspicious trade the day before a big announcement. Was not aware of the article but it all seems a little on the nose to me.

Plenty of other of these types of examples in my view - banks sell of 3% before the budget release etc etc.

I know it's the game we play and the world we live in.


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## skc (3 July 2017)

kid hustlr said:


> I meant ASIC as in referring to suspicious trade the day before a big announcement. Was not aware of the article but it all seems a little on the nose to me.
> 
> Plenty of other of these types of examples in my view - banks sell of 3% before the budget release etc etc.
> 
> I know it's the game we play and the world we live in.




I agree there are other cases but in this instance the timing was quite precise.... FXJ started to sell off when the article appeared on TheAustralian.

That little dip in FXJ share price on the 22 Jun was probably more worthy of investigation.


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## skyQuake (3 July 2017)

Spoke with a M&A guy - he reckons they left it too late. Deadline was friday and there was talk that they needed more time, though Macq and the lawyers said no.
No trading halt fri morn left holders pretty antsy
News started streaming in inevitably and were picked up by good sources late arvo.

Those people who got stopped out on that 22nd june spike must be pretty happy now!


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## PZ99 (4 July 2017)

RMX is about to join this group when it opens today.

Yep 20m shares traded in 2 mins and down 58%...


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## JTLP (7 July 2017)

You might be adding BAL to this list...


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## skc (7 July 2017)

JTLP said:


> You might be adding BAL to this list...




Not sure what's the story there but that sounds incredibly bad luck if the asset they coverted the most (not the plant but the license) is suspended for unforeseen reasons. Or it's incredibly careless if it should be knowable... like a change of control, or a change in production to certified organic or something like that. Or may be it's an administrative thing that can be sorted out quickly.... Or someone out there in the Chinese CNCA just hates Ballemy....

Mind you BAL only paid $10m for the plant itself... the rest of the capital raising was used to pay out Fonterra.
	

		
			
		

		
	




But all in all... yes there's a reasonable chance that it'd land here again, even if it was just sheer over reaction.


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## JTLP (7 July 2017)

skc said:


> Not sure what's the story there but that sounds incredibly bad luck if the asset they coverted the most (not the plant but the license) is suspended for unforeseen reasons. Or it's incredibly careless if it should be knowable... like a change of control, or a change in production to certified organic or something like that. Or may be it's an administrative thing that can be sorted out quickly.... Or someone out there in the Chinese CNCA just hates Ballemy....
> 
> Mind you BAL only paid $10m for the plant itself... the rest of the capital raising was used to pay out Fonterra.
> 
> ...




True - we will have to wait and see. But wasn't this plant their golden ticket to China and a way of getting bulk stock in? Seems like a big hurdle, even if it's $10m.


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## pixel (7 July 2017)

Poor old DRM is another deserving member of this Club 
Andy isn't so well anymore; even Deflector can't deflect from the sad situation.

commiserations to remaining holders


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## PZ99 (9 August 2017)

RAP hit the skids today. Down 76%



> "These are not the results that we expected given our experience in Australia. It is
> obvious that a large number of tests have been affected by procedural anomalies and we now need to go through each case one by one to fully understand the result"


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## skc (9 August 2017)

PZ99 said:


> RAP hit the skids today. Down 76%




Yes that was most unfortunate (cough cough). It feels like a bit of amateurish error with trial procedure not being followed thru...

But the stock was pumped to something like $3-400m market cap for a pretty early stage concept.... the fall was always going to be spectacular if the results don't live up to expectations.


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## PZ99 (9 August 2017)

Seems to me their preparation was poor. I've trained voice machines in the past and the number one rule is to do it under the worst possible conditions. Audio samples from their target test sites would have been a good place to start prior to these tests.


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## PZ99 (23 August 2017)

Well we can add CXO to this unhappy chain of events after NO lithium grades were intersected at Zola. Down 30%.

A North Korean missile could've done a better job and probably will eventually.


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## PZ99 (21 November 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Took a bet on OOO etf today at yearly lows... wish me luck.. LOL



Here's the thread we've been looking for. LOL

Loaded up on OOO again - oils ain't oils


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