# Will there be a rally after the US elections?



## Glen48 (2 November 2008)

Will there be a rally after the US elections and will Mc Cain or Obama give a bigger rise than the other?
Will the rate I R deduction in OZ give a bigger rally ?
If so how long will it last?


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## agro (2 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Will there be a rally after the US elections and will Mc Cain or Obama give a bigger rise than the other?
> Will the rate I R deduction in OZ give a bigger rally ?
> If so how long will it last?




hopefully Obama gets in - guaranteed certainity to go up

it was Bush campaign (as conservative as i am) that got the us economy in to the mess they r in..

rate cuts tuesday too in aus 


bring on the rally


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## tech/a (2 November 2008)

I doubt much will change.
This is going to be long and protracted.

This is what George Soros thinks.

*Soros, 78, said the International Monetary Fund needs to move to protect emerging markets or else today's global financial system will not last.

"The IMF has a new mission. It has to protect the periphery against the storm at the center," Soros said, referring to the U.S. and developed Western economies that are at the center of the global credit crunch.

"Unless actually the United States now leads an international effort to stabilize the system which includes the peripheral countries, I think the system will not continue."

A staunch Democratic Party supporter, Soros said he did not expect such a move out of the current White House.

"I don't expect this president to do it but I expect the next president to do it because otherwise the system will not continue, there will be a different system that will emerge and the United States will not have the influence that it has today," Soros said.

Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management, supported U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama during the Democratic primaries, and his views on public policy are more like those of the Illinois senator than his rival for the Oval Office, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.*


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## jet328 (2 November 2008)

I think Obama is already priced in

Does anyone think McCain has a chance?


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## namrog (2 November 2008)

If Obama gets up, I expect a brief rally, maybe a week,or two until reality returns and people realise that the same problems exist.
This possibility seems to align with what most E wavers are seeing, I believe.

If by some unbelieveable chance Mc Cain wins, then I will sell most investments, and head for the hills.


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## MrBurns (2 November 2008)

namrog said:


> If Obama gets up, I expect a brief rally, maybe a week,or two until reality returns and people realise that the same problems exist.
> This possibility seems to align with what most E wavers are seeing, I believe.
> 
> If by some unbelieveable chance Mc Cain wins, then I will sell most investments, and head for the hills.





Obama is a bit like Rudd, everyone likes him now but once he gets in they'll realise it's still all talk and no action and when there is action it's all wrong, so he'll have a honeymoon period then the US public will realise that BS doesn't solve problems same as we realise that here in Australia right now.

Rudd is about to spend the surplus on more BS , he can hardly wait to get his grubby hands on it, it's hard to imagine what a mess the Libs will be left with to fix this time around.


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## Glen48 (2 November 2008)

So buy up ASAP hold for awhile then sell....Then buy Real Estate and do the lot?
What would Howard etc done differently when all this turmoil is beyond any combined Government action?.


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## MrBurns (2 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> So buy up ASAP hold for awhile then sell....Then buy Real Estate and do the lot?
> What would Howard etc done differently when all this turmoil is beyond any combined Government action?.




Libs have a class that seems to get things done at this level.

I would just sit tight try to get the drift of a raging torrent which this is at present.

Sit tight obeserve and that way you will get an idea of when to move.


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## sammy84 (2 November 2008)

I agree with Jet, I think an Obama victory is pretty much priced in already. Obama is only offering $1.12 to win on sportsbet, I think that says it all.


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## OzWaveGuy (3 November 2008)

There will be a huge rally - in post election bailouts. No matter who wins


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## Nyden (5 November 2008)

Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact? Why would there be a rally, in honesty - I'm befuddled as to why we're rallying right now. A little bit of numbness & euphoria I think has swept through peoples minds (myself included - but I have decided not to act ... as it would be an emotional investment); and this surely cannot last.

I sincerely doubt the changing of presidency is going to suddenly grant people their jobs back, pay off their mortgages, and suddenly reverse the effects of a recession.

Sorry for the sobering words  I'm sure many people just want to here how we're going to soar all the way back to 6000 in a week. My off the top of my head prediction for tomorrow? Terrible plunge :


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## gfresh (5 November 2008)

US Futures are flat at the moment...


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## frenzel (5 November 2008)

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4A222P20081105



> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures were little changed on Tuesday after the U.S. media projected that Democrat Barack Obama had secured enough votes to become the next U.S. president.
> 
> S&P 500 futures rose 0.60 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures were unchanged, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 7.25 points.




Guess not too much of a rally, although looks like it will be a solid day.


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## Glen48 (5 November 2008)

That all Folks from now on just bobbing around but a downward trend.
RBA will keep dropping rtaes but to no avail.


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## CAB SAV (5 November 2008)

Nyden said:


> Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact? Why would there be a rally, in honesty - I'm befuddled as to why we're rallying right now. A little bit of numbness & euphoria I think has swept through peoples minds (myself included - but I have decided not to act ... as it would be an emotional investment); and this surely cannot last.
> 
> I sincerely doubt the changing of presidency is going to suddenly grant people their jobs back, pay off their mortgages, and suddenly reverse the effects of a recession.
> 
> Sorry for the sobering words  I'm sure many people just want to here how we're going to soar all the way back to 6000 in a week. My off the top of my head prediction for tomorrow? Terrible plunge :




Just like the yanks, give us a rate cut and all our problems are solved. Should be some sobering data within the next 4 weeks to remind us we are in a bear market.


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## sammy84 (5 November 2008)

I believe the Americans being the patriotic bunch they are will rally tonight. With all the jubilation surrounding Obama there should be a lot of investors going long tonight.


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## roland (5 November 2008)

The good thing about elections is that the majority come out as winners. One would then suspect that the majority are happy vegemites - so one would expect a reasonably good night on the US markets. 

Hope it's enough for me to sell off some more stuff.


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## tech/a (5 November 2008)

Well its certainly not reflected in the Futures!!!


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## Nyden (5 November 2008)

sammy84 said:


> I believe the Americans being the patriotic bunch they are will rally tonight. With all the jubilation surrounding Obama there should be a lot of investors going long tonight.




Surely anyone with half a brain knew Obama would win though - especially in the last few days. Doesn't this reinforce the fact that it's already priced in - hence the rallies we've already had? I also count the flat day as a rally; as 400+ losses have become something of the norm for the DOW


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## kgee (5 November 2008)

sammy84 said:


> I agree with Jet, I think an Obama victory is pretty much priced in already. Obama is only offering $1.12 to win on sportsbet, I think that says it all.




So does that mean since sportingbet is paying 12% that only 88% has been factored into the market? Meaning the remainder 12% will be factored in tommorrow/tonight ???


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## Nyden (5 November 2008)

kgee said:


> So does that mean since sportingbet is paying 12% that only 88% has been factored into the market? Meaning the remainder 12% will be factored in tommorrow/tonight ???




No. It means that those people were just taking a long-shot suckers bet, or were extremists in denial  Such folk don't contribute to the markets; and even if they did - they'd probably be so distraught at their loss that they'll be too depressed to invest.


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## Calliope (5 November 2008)

SMH headline said Asia markets rallied on Obama win. I doubt this. Asians are smart enough to know that the Democrats, who are generally anti-business are not going to sort this mess out by spreading the wealth. What wealth. I will join in the euphoria when my sick superannuation fund rallies.


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## Sunder (5 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> SMH headline said Asia markets rallied on Obama win. I doubt this. Asians are smart enough to know that the Democrats, who are generally anti-business are not going to sort this mess out by spreading the wealth. What wealth. I will join in the euphoria when my sick superannuation fund rallies.




I think this means Democrats have control of both houses, which makes any bailouts and resolutions easier to pass, unlike the last 700B attempt. I think that might cause some optimism.


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## SenTineL (5 November 2008)

tech/a said:


> Well its certainly not reflected in the Futures!!!




when was the last time the futures was accurate?
maybe you were being sarcastic.

i remember recently seeing some futures figures that ended up being so inacurate, in fact the opposite of what actualy took place


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## M34N (5 November 2008)

Well down she goes...

But anything is possible today, I personally expect to see it either flat or higher.


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## MRC & Co (5 November 2008)

Well that was terrible, volatile, irrational trading!

Obama pretty much had it wrapped, market broke S&P day sessions previous micro double top high, took out weak shorts, then came off.  Looked to be a sure short, then bounced and the sequence continued.  

Talk about indecisive!


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## OzWaveGuy (5 November 2008)

So far the S&P500 is following this https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307

If a reasonable retracement occurs tonight or tomorrow then wave D down is underway - possibly to the 900 level. Futures looks pretty bearish right now, which may support a solid push lower tonight.


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## tech/a (5 November 2008)

2 to 2.5% downs my bet.

Subject to change when I have a look later.
It too used to be indecisive---but now I'm not so sure.


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## sinner (5 November 2008)

Whoever said XAO 4300 then down seems to be on the money....so to speak


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## moXJO (5 November 2008)

From options university




> This week starts off a little slow but with the election on Tuesday and a slew of economic reports due out as the week progresses, it should be action packed. It's our take that the "real" news that will come out of the election will be what happens in the Senate, as in, if the Democrats become filibuster proof.
> 
> If the Democrats are able to take control of the Senate by securing 60 or greater seats, then they will effectively control not only the Senate, but the House and, more than likely, the White House if polls hold. The legislative and executive/enforcement branch under the control of one party is not something that investors normally prefer.
> 
> ...


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## chops_a_must (5 November 2008)

SenTineL said:


> when was the last time the futures was accurate?
> maybe you were being sarcastic.
> 
> i remember recently seeing some futures figures that ended up being so inacurate, in fact the opposite of what actualy took place




And exactly how are the futures inaccurate?

You do understand what they are don't you?


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## J.B.Nimble (6 November 2008)

The question - Will there be a rally after the US elections?
Answer - (with some highly sophisticated holistic predictive algorithms at work here) Yes - within the next ten years... maybe even in time for me to reactivate my (very dead for now) early retirement plans. Meantime - oh the pain, the pain...


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## tech/a (6 November 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> And exactly how are the futures inaccurate?
> 
> *You do understand what they are don't you?*




"Better to remain silent and appear a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt."


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## theasxgorilla (6 November 2008)

Now we have hindsight, so no, there wasn't a rally.  Quite the opposite actually...and since many believe Obama will be worse for the economy than McCain could have been, the fact that we see the market fall severely on _relatively_ bad news suggests to me we haven't seen the bottom in this market, yet.


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## Junior (6 November 2008)

There wasn't a rally in the first day after the election, arguably the result was already factored in... Obama needs a convincing economic plan going forward.


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## Calliope (6 November 2008)

Junior said:


> There wasn't a rally in the first day after the election, arguably the result was already factored in... Obama needs a convincing economic plan going forward.




The political experts said that the state of the American economy was the main factor in raising Obama's popularity rating to an unbeatable lead.

You would have expected that after his victory confidence would boom. The American markets have now given their judgment and the Australian and Asian markets will follow suit today.


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## Aussiejeff (6 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Will there be a rally after the US elections...?




Nope.


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## Glen48 (6 November 2008)

.5% rise will be classed as a Bull boom and IF we get that take a photo because it will be a long time before we see that again, I reckon we are in an elevator and the LCD tells us Stock market..Going Down...and we are on the top floor


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## sam76 (6 November 2008)

Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley
By Mathieu Robbins
Wednesday, 5 November 2008

Analysts at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley are recommending that clients start to buy shares again after more than a year of falling markets. In an investment strategy report, analysts at the bank said that all four indicators they use to gauge the equity market outlook have started to indicate a turn in the downward trend.

"We have now come full circle: our market timing indicators are giving us a full house buy signal," said the statement. "Each of the four indicators - valuation, capitulation, risk, fundamentals - tells us to buy."

The report said that the catalyst for the change in outlook was that the last few investor groups - retail investors, sell-side analysts and purchasing managers - have "capitulated" to bear market sentiment. "The idea is that when these three groups know about the bad news, equity prices are probably already reflecting it," it read.

The note recommends that investors keep shares in their investment portfolios to take in the expected growth.

It comes after months of stock market falls that have seen London's FTSE 100 index lose about a third of its value in the last year. However, even the report's compilers admit that while they consider it to have a "near-perfect" track record, there is a chance it is wrong.

"These models tend to work some 80 to 90 per cent of the time," they said. "And in the 10 to 20 per cent that they don't work, the move the other way can be spectacular."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ket-has-ended-says-morgan-stanley-992370.html


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## Ageo (6 November 2008)

sam76 said:


> Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley




BAWAHHAAH quote of the century!


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## trishaltbr (6 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Will there be a rally after the US elections and will Mc Cain or Obama give a bigger rise than the other?
> Will the rate I R deduction in OZ give a bigger rally ?
> If so how long will it last?



Your post is to quite negative. This is the beginning of new era, or so I hope.


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## gfresh (6 November 2008)

Bloomberg had some stats based on data in markets in the last century that showed that there is likely to be a decline immediate after the election, however in February (Obama takes office in January), there is a good chance the market will begin to recover. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akRyOGDs1EHI

They say the markets traditionally recover 4-5 months before the real economy does during a recession. 

Don't shoot the messenger, but anyhow, I found it an interesting read.


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## Aussiejeff (6 November 2008)

sam76 said:


> Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley




Cheesus!

These chumps must be sliding into the doo-doo's themselves to be making insane quotes like that!

IMO


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## Calliope (7 November 2008)

After all the hype and hyperbole the "new dawn" has been exposed to the cold light of day. The markets tell the story.

If you needed a final catalyst to tilt the world towards another depression you would elect an economic novice to the position of American President with a mandate to move the country to the left.


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## MrBurns (7 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> After all the hype and hyperbole the "new dawn" has been exposed to the cold light of day. The markets tell the story.
> 
> If you needed a final catalyst to tilt the world towards another depression you would elect an economic novice to the position of American President with a mandate to move the country to the left.




I suspect you've hit he nail on the head.


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## Glen48 (7 November 2008)

I see Obama helped  the down and out in his home town after Uni, I wonder if he was helping the poor get into sub prime Home loans because it is their right to own a home???


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## OzWaveGuy (7 November 2008)

trishaltbr said:


> Your post is to quite negative. This is the beginning of new era, or so I hope.




Perhaps you would like to elaborate on "the new era"?


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## OzWaveGuy (7 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Obama is a bit like Rudd, everyone likes him now but once he gets in they'll realise it's still all talk and no action and when there is action it's all wrong, so he'll have a honeymoon period then the US public will realise that BS doesn't solve problems same as we realise that here in Australia right now.
> 
> Rudd is about to spend the surplus on more BS , he can hardly wait to get his grubby hands on it, it's hard to imagine what a mess the Libs will be left with to fix this time around.




Spot on Mr Burns. There will be 'change' but not what people are expecting.


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## Glen48 (7 November 2008)

http://www.hulu.com/watch/38041/saturday-night-live-washington-approves-the-bailout


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## Aussiejeff (7 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> http://www.hulu.com/watch/38041/saturday-night-live-washington-approves-the-bailout




Phew!

For a minute there I thought I was watching a comedy!

Then I realised it was the real GWB.


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## Calliope (8 November 2008)

While listening to ABC News Radio this morning I heard that the DOW had rallied following Obama's press conference which was mainly about the economy (and a puppy for the kids to keep his middle-aged women supporters happy). Obama told us what the problems are but no answers. Anyway it seems that if his brand of cliches can rally the market, so they serve some purpose.

I am sure that when Mr Rudd gets his ear, he will put him on the right track. It is simply a matter of setting up neverending reviews and enquiries, white papers and green papers and talkfests, and you can go on for ages without actually doing anything. Oh, and of course blaming the previous administration for everything.

I think Kevin may have already told him about the economic stimulus package, in which you send cheques to underachievers in the expectation that they will spend it quickly. He's going to try this one.


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## tech/a (9 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> While listening to ABC News Radio this morning I heard that the DOW had rallied following Obama's press conference which was mainly about the economy (and a puppy for the kids to keep his middle-aged women supporters happy). Obama told us what the problems are but no answers. Anyway it seems that if his brand of cliches can rally the market, so they serve some purpose.
> 
> I am sure that when Mr Rudd gets his ear, he will put him on the right track. It is simply a matter of setting up neverending reviews and enquiries, white papers and green papers and talkfests, and you can go on for ages without actually doing anything. Oh, and of course blaming the previous administration for everything.
> 
> I think Kevin may have already told him about the economic stimulus package, in which you send cheques to underachievers in the expectation that they will spend it quickly. He's going to try this one.




His plan is to support USA goods and services by making changes to free trade agreements.
Fine for the US but disasterous for the Emerging countries which rely on the US consumerism. We wont be happy either,decreased demand,decreased commodity prices,Increased deficit,Increased job losses,Recessionary economy.

All of which is designed to encourage spending boost un employment and grow economies so the government can make more money to pay their never ending debt due to their in ability to regulate the banking system --- and so the black hole (Terrible pun!---not intended) keeps on keeping on!!

Bandaids treating the symptoms not the cause!


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## skint (9 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> While listening to ABC News Radio this morning I heard that the DOW had rallied following Obama's press conference which was mainly about the economy (and a puppy for the kids to keep his middle-aged women supporters happy). Obama told us what the problems are but no answers. Anyway it seems that if his brand of cliches can rally the market, so they serve some purpose.
> 
> I am sure that when Mr Rudd gets his ear, he will put him on the right track. It is simply a matter of setting up neverending reviews and enquiries, white papers and green papers and talkfests, and you can go on for ages without actually doing anything. Oh, and of course blaming the previous administration for everything.
> 
> I think Kevin may have already told him about the economic stimulus package, in which you send cheques to underachievers in the expectation that they will spend it quickly. He's going to try this one.




In Australia, the previous administration has a hell of a lot to answer for. Howard was fortunate enough to preside over an unprecedented boom, and enormous sums of cash flowing into the government coffers. The situation was greatly enhanced by the dollar having been floated, centralised wage fixing being dismantled, and an inflation target set of 2-3%, all of which occured under Labor. Howard had the oppportunity to invest in infrastructure and still be able to have a large warchest for the inevitable bursting of the commodities bubble and the similarly inevitable next recession. He chose to squander the opportunity on a ridiculous war, record governmment advertising, massive middle class welfare to get re-elected and outrageous pork barreling (fishing museums and so on). Indeed, he continually neglected the advice of the Reserve, and in the last half of his government, managed to outspend Whitlam, in same year dollars. No easy task. Whitlam was an extraordinary social reformer, however fiscal restraint was not a strength, to say the least. Currently the cashflow is drying up, and the ability to pump prime a slowing economy, which is what economist's agree upon is necessary in a slowdown, is dramaticallty lower than it otherwise could have been. Thanks, John.

In America, as I've pointed out previously, the White House's own figures show the national debt skyrocketing under Reagan and Bush I, declining under Clinton and reaching a 53 year high under Bush II. In short, the record books show the Republicans to be the big spending, big debt party, unless you believe the white house fudged it's own figures. Even most Republicans recognise the economic train wreck Bush has been. Tax cuts to the extremely wealthy, Iraq (which has been more expensive than the bailout so far), and ridiculous deregulation of the financial sector has driven the states to the brink of collapse. The Democrats were supportive of housing loans to the poor and are not without blame, but Bush has been there for eight years, and the responsibility for the lion's share of the turmoil resides firmly on the Republican's shoulders. McCain (92% Bush) has openly stated that he knows little about the economy, his judgement extended to choose a running mate that thought Africa was a country, Russian planes flying overhead were evidence of foreign policy experience, and who is known as more than a little knocked off in the brains department by even a great many within her own party. Do you really believe that that would have been a better recipe for the markets over time?
The expectations placed on Obama are unrealistic. No President could remedy such a dire situation, as if holding a magic wand. As we saw, the markets rallied on the expectation that at least the architects of the fiasco would no longer be in control. They subsequently went in the other direction on the understanding of the enormity of the task and that a nasty recession is inevitable, regardless of a change of government. Obama may be an infinitely better alternative, however the reality of the situation suggests it will not be remedied overnight. 
Greenspan himself has admitted that he got it wrong in believing in the extremes of capitalism and the ability of the markets to always self correct in the absence of any meaningful regulation. Australia has universal health, a better regulated financial sector (our institutions are not dropping like flies), greater access to educational opportunities and a minimum wage that is double that in the US. Your argument that a leftwards shift to the centre will end in disaster is not exactly holding a great deal of water, given we're in a better situation than the US. To think that four more years of same in the US is just what the situation warranted is cloud loco on acid.


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## Calliope (9 November 2008)

skint said:


> Your argument that a leftwards shift to the centre will end in disaster is not exactly holding a great deal of water, given we're in a better situation than the US. To think that four more years of same in the US is just what the situation warranted is cloud loco on acid.




My argument Where did I say this?


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## skint (9 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> If you needed a final catalyst to tilt the world towards another depression you would elect an economic novice to the position of American President with a mandate to move the country to the left.




Right here!


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## Calliope (9 November 2008)

skint said:


> Right here!




Nothing there about a "leftwards shift to the centre", except in your fertile imagination.


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## skint (9 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> Nothing there about a "leftwards shift to the centre", except in your fertile imagination.




OK. "A mandate to shift the country to the left" My longer post outlined what a crock of catastrophising it is, to suggest that it will provide a catalyst for a depression. I made the point that for three decades the national debt has skyrocketed under the Right (the Republicans) and declined under the left (the Democrats). The stats speak for themselves. Bangin' on, with nothing to back it up, about movements to the left resulting in depression is about as vacuos as they come.


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## Calliope (9 November 2008)

Yes Skint, your long post certainly was a crock. Your problem is that you are so short on ideas that you have to invent things to argue about.


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## skint (9 November 2008)

Calliope said:


> Yes Skint, your long post certainly was a crock. Your problem is that you are so short on ideas that you have to invent things to argue about.




No, all the evidence such as who put policies in place, the White House figures etc..are all fact. BTW, alternative viewpoints are what make the world go round, however you really need to learn how to craft an argument for your perspective. 

"Yes Skint, your long post certainly was a crock. Your problem is that you are so short on ideas that you have to invent things to argue about."

You see, you haven't actually said anything here. The sort of stuff you hear from kids in primary school.

I'm done with this. Yawn and Ciao.


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## chops_a_must (9 November 2008)

skint said:


> Right here!



Pwned!

Lol!


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## jonojpsg (9 November 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Pwned!
> 
> Lol!




My sentiment exactly - can't see how Call can defend that

PS How do you get away with less than 100 chars Chops??


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## chops_a_must (9 November 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> My sentiment exactly - can't see how Call can defend that
> 
> PS How do you get away with less than 100 chars Chops??




Magical powers.


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## Glen48 (9 November 2008)

Magical powers some thing like selling AAAAA rated loans and making a Zillion Bucks?
Will there be a rally Monday morning???


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## sammy84 (10 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Magical powers some thing like selling AAAAA rated loans and making a Zillion Bucks?
> Will there be a rally Monday morning???




Not sure about a rally, but a positive day should be in order. The dow closing on Friday was promising and also just read then that China has announced a $586B stimulus package! I'm sure that will give the miners a lift.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/09/news/international/china.package.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008110908


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