# ILU - Iluka Resources



## AnalysisParalysis (3 March 2007)

Hi all,

        My first post. I'm after some views on ILU, as I'm holding at a loss at the moment. I actually renewed a sell order the other day, but didn't realise I had pressed the wrong button, and got landed with another lot of shares.

The reason I bought a few weeks back is because of the big volume spikes. Learning, learning...

One thing I have noticed since following the stock is that there are orders of 100 000 shares on both sides, at increments of 5 cents. They've been there for a few weeks, and move around as the stock price changes. Any more experienced traders have any knowledge on this stock, or these big orders?

Thanks.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (3 March 2007)

Lets face it ILU aren't sexy neither is mineral sands, SP appreciation is Zippo, all within a commodities boom..........disappointing. Dividends are crap also....when their are some!.

That said you can trade the spikes at times and they do have them, just hard to pick an entry........and they are a blue chip.

Not sure on the depth question could be someone trying to fake sell pressure and flush the punters to his bid in the depth. Decent size holder though.... I mean why bother, ILU are at rock bottom ATM, lowest they have been for a year.


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## AnalysisParalysis (3 March 2007)

Yeah, weird. One thing I can see though is that there may be "support" at 4.50, because that's the lowest bid.


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## pacer (15 March 2007)

Could be forming a double bottom....and at these prices it's looking like a bargain....lotta people bailed out lately...fear gottem, greed will put me in I think....I'll have a look for a small amount and hope it is a double bottom.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 March 2007)

Not sure about the bargain pacer.....net debt for ILU is on the up, their paying divvy's from the "never, never!", and having problems squirming out of the Florida muck.

That said the Murray Basin will be a Company maker or sinker, the aforementioned seems more probable. 

Took up a small entry this morning just after 11am.....like you said "the greed factor", but geez ILU are a poorly run mob .


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## It's Snake Pliskin (15 March 2007)

I closed my long yesterday.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> I closed my long yesterday.




Yep their chart says it all, not a good year or two, for investors in ILU.

This is my first time on them.....see what pans out


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## AnalysisParalysis (25 March 2007)

Hi all,

This is from their website for those interested. Some interesting info. on their business, shows the uses of Zircon and so on. Some nice pie charts.

Ex-div. on 10th of April, 12 cents.

PDF Overview of Iluka


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## CanOz (28 March 2007)

Anybody like this setup? Seems reasonably low risk to me. Could this have been accumulation before the quick rise in price?

Cheers,


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 March 2007)

Record date soon, probably enticing a few!.... safe entry has been and gone IMO although it seems a short term base may have been found!.

ILU are cheap ATM, but thier not exactly an efficiently run Company


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (2 April 2007)

ILU should face a bit of resistance around $6ish, upcoming Divvy should see them nudge past IMO. 

Can't see ILU testing support at $5.40ish again even after record date, all panned out O.K.  , you still in Analysis?


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## AnalysisParalysis (3 April 2007)

Yep. I break even at 6.40.


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## AnalysisParalysis (12 April 2007)

It seems our friends with the big bankroll have vanished from M/D. 

ILU have come back a bit lately, it's great to see them above $6. Yesterday's volume was nice and juicy, let's see where it goes from here. 

Freeball, what say ye? $6 support?


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## somesortoftrader (29 April 2007)

Hi guys, 

I'm holding a breakeven point of $6.40 also. 

For what its worth I live in Hamilton (Murray Basin area) where the MSP is located, and its happening!!! The stuff is coming out out of the plant and making its way to the port! (ie. Portland)

  wont be long (I hope) before this starts to appear as dollars for the Co.


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## Uncle Festivus (20 June 2007)

Looks like Iluka may be about to move. The turnaround may have started last Friday with good volume day and well supported since, up 2.5% today. Take over candidate once more?


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## reece55 (20 June 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looks like Iluka may be about to move. The turnaround may have started last Friday with good volume day and well supported since, up 2.5% today. Take over candidate once more?




Yep, it was only a matter of time with this one.

Have we broken the down trend channel that has been in place for a long long time - I think so. Look at the substantial shareholder notices, accumulation by the smart money in droves....

Cheers
Reece


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## reece55 (21 June 2007)

Anyone seen the pre-open numbers for ILU.....

I can see more than 500K volume bidding above 6.50, with minimal bidders meaning insto activity.......

What is going on??????

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (21 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> Anyone seen the pre-open numbers for ILU.....
> 
> I can see more than 500K volume bidding above 6.50, with minimal bidders meaning insto activity.......
> 
> ...




Just normal market pre open auction. Up again today but formidable resistance @ 620 to get through.
________________________________________________________________


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## reece55 (21 June 2007)

Cheers Fest, I don't have my level 2 market screen at home, as I have the kids to look after today (wifes sick!!).

Hopefully we will break that 6.20 level this morning, looking good so far. Next target for me from there would be about 6.48 at the 200d MA.

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (27 June 2007)

I was just reading a few of the announcements going back, and found one that stated earnings are dependant on the Aussie dollar remaining below 75c, & for every 1c rise the bottom line will be reduced by $8m. The dollar has gone up to 85 now, so does that mean they will be reporting a big fat zero for net profit?.


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## reece55 (4 July 2007)

Still liking what I see here in ILU....

High level volume on the breakout, reduced volume on the inevitable pull back....  If 6.00 holds (which is about a 50% retracement of the recent upward action) and we see some positive action, hopefully we will now form a lower low and higher high to create a break of the downtrend.....

Love the substantial holder movements in this stock!!!

Cheers
Reece


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## Uncle Festivus (8 July 2007)

Hi Reece,

I'm in 2 minds on this one - has all the ammo been spent on this advance or is it rebuilding for another charge? I'm waiting for better confirmation, & possibly an ann from the company to the effect that the $AU hasn't affected the bottom line. 

Then theres always the possibility of a takeover, still bubbling from 2 years ago?

UF


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## Uncle Festivus (9 July 2007)

*MINERAL sands miner Iluka reported exploration success yesterday at its $400 million Eucla Basin mineral sands project in South Australia, but concerns about the high Australian dollar are weighing on sentiment.*

                          Also yesterday, UBS hiked its forecast for the Australian dollar - causing it to slash its 2008 earnings forecast for Iluka. 
 The rampant domestic currency is now starting to weigh on the outlooks for companies with offshore earnings exposure.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22024980-5005200,00.html


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## reece55 (11 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> *MINERAL sands miner Iluka reported exploration success yesterday at its $400 million Eucla Basin mineral sands project in South Australia, but concerns about the high Australian dollar are weighing on sentiment.*
> 
> Also yesterday, UBS hiked its forecast for the Australian dollar - causing it to slash its 2008 earnings forecast for Iluka.
> The rampant domestic currency is now starting to weigh on the outlooks for companies with offshore earnings exposure.
> ...




Well, unfortunately looks like we received our answer today..... Bummer...

However, price action is the important element in the equation, so I will leave this one on the watchlist until we see some strength....

Still, the fund managers obviously like the Company at present.... However, PPT et al liked CDR at one stage, which took a mega backflip.....

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (18 July 2007)

Well it's happened, stating the obvious I guess. The big question is will there be more casualties from the exchange rate appreciation?

Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX: ILU.ax) fell as much as 4 percent to A$5.64 -- its lowest level in nearly five weeks -- after the mineral sands miner cut its full-year earnings forecast on Wednesday by about half, citing an unfavourable exchange rate for the Australian dollar.


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## reece55 (23 July 2007)

Hey Uncle
ILU has reared it's head again today, I bought some about a week ago for the SMSF as a long term hold at 6.02...

Another potential higher low, all we need now is the higher high and things are looking good. Plenty of buyer interest when the earnings downgrade was announced, perhaps the substantial shareholders mopping up some cheap shares.

I continue to really like the nice movement that ILU is showing now, yes it's let us down in the past, but lets see where we go from here.

Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (23 July 2007)

reece55 said:


> Hey Uncle
> ILU has reared it's head again today, I bought some about a week ago for the SMSF as a long term hold at 6.02...
> 
> Another potential higher low, all we need now is the higher high and things are looking good. Plenty of buyer interest when the earnings downgrade was announced, perhaps the substantial shareholders mopping up some cheap shares.
> ...




Hi Reece,
As per chat, it may indeed be some of the subs mopping up in readiness for ????? Someone accumulating maybe; the  lowish volume could indicate supply drying up? Could even be desperation buying from those in the know getting set?
Certainly a day out of the ordinary.


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## ozambersand (26 July 2007)

Gee I love  watching the bids for the pre-market auction. Someone is bidding 8000 shares at $70 each for Iluka shares!

I'd sell mine if I thought that would actually happen! Lucky for whoever it is, the actual price doesn't get taken into account!


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## Dutchy3 (9 August 2007)

This one on the verge of altering direction on a weeking basis ... the shocks of the last few weeks now starting to wear rather thin on some of the stocks defining their own futures ... chart later


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## somesortoftrader (25 October 2007)

Has anyone been following ILU closely in the last week? 

Seems they have dropped (read plunged) on the back of a profit down-grade,..... which is based on a rising Australian dollar, and maybe on a prelonged high Australian dollar? Any thoughts? seems the drop is greater than it should be. 

Also should the board be questioned in relation to the timing of the announcement? The announcement seems to be timed conveniently after the DRP (dividend reinvestment plan) has bought shares at a much higher price. They [the board] would surely have known they were planning to release the profit downgrade. They [the board] have hardly done me any favours with that one!


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## CanOz (25 October 2007)

reece55 said:


> Hey Uncle
> ILU has reared it's head again today, I bought some about a week ago for the SMSF as a long term hold at 6.02...
> 
> Another potential higher low, all we need now is the higher high and things are looking good. Plenty of buyer interest when the earnings downgrade was announced, perhaps the substantial shareholders mopping up some cheap shares.
> ...




Curious to know when or if you got out of this Reese? Guessing that your shorting it with a few CFDs to hedge.

Cheers,


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## reece55 (25 October 2007)

CanOz said:


> Curious to know when or if you got out of this Reese? Guessing that your shorting it with a few CFDs to hedge.
> 
> Cheers,




Hi Can
Ended up getting out quite quickly out of this one, out at about 6.35 - 6.40 from memory, which was just about the high (thank god). After reviewing the forecast for the AUD:USD at the time, I didn't want a large exposure to the USD. Add to the fact that the it just could stay above the 200 MA and the 6.40 zone had heavy sellers. In the end I opted for a quick profit, as the stock was still in a primary downtrend. God is it looking ugly now - you shorting Can, I know that Nick actually called this one perfectly a while back.

Cheers


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## CanOz (25 October 2007)

reece55 said:


> Hi Can
> Ended up getting out quite quickly out of this one, out at about 6.35 - 6.40 from memory, which was just about the high (thank god). After reviewing the forecast for the AUD:USD at the time, I didn't want a large exposure to the USD. Add to the fact that the it just could stay above the 200 MA and the 6.40 zone had heavy sellers. In the end I opted for a quick profit, as the stock was still in a primary downtrend. God is it looking ugly now - you shorting Can, I know that Nick actually called this one perfectly a while back.
> 
> Cheers




No i'm not short anything...except maybe time...just finished the super busy time here and into the busy time...i've got two posi's on, but its hard to find the time for the analysis. I think i'll leave it to my GF.

Cheers,


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## Buddy (21 February 2008)

I am very disappointed in the performance of this company and it's new CEO.  Has anyone noticed that since his departure from Wesfarmers to Iluka, the performace of this share has gone from around a $7 share to $4 - 4.50.  Half year results are now out, and OK, have been knocked by the exchange rate.  (Now there's a story in there too, why are mineral sands so dependant on the dead US$?) SO now we suffering shareholders are being told that there is no interim dividend.  I honestly cannot remember the last time Iluka (or Westralian Sands) did not pay a dividend.  All I can say is, poor performance Mr Robb.


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## Buddy (21 February 2008)

Share price down 16% today.
Either the market has no idea, or this is a very, very poor performance. 
I suggest the latter.


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## Buddy (21 February 2008)

Records go all the way back to 1987, and 2 dividends have been paid every year since then (I held them back in 1987), until this year.  Good one Mr Robb.  Well done. : Actually, pathetic!


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## reece55 (22 February 2008)

Yeah, well it was a pretty sad state of affairs today, hammered down on the result (well, i think mostly the forecast).....

It's a pity, my uncle works for them in Native Title and his view is that the Eucla Basin stuff has only just begun and it's going to be terrific for them..... Still, it's price that pays and at the moment this is a stock that no one wants.... Got hand it to Nick, he had been calling this one as a long term short for ages and I just refused to go along with the analysis - looks like he was right on the money....

Cheers


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## Dutchy3 (29 July 2008)

Bought this one today

Looks to me like the SP could close above resistance 490 - 500 this week.

Nice volumes in the last few months suggests that a base may have formed


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## mattyhammer (8 September 2008)

I was just checking out the ILU page on the ASX site and noticed a massive volume spike (around 40000000 shares traded) on 22 Aug 08. I had a look at their announcements and PPT bought in but from what I can see they accumulated IVO 800000 shares. Anyone know how to find out who and what was bought & sold on that day? Seems to be a buy cos the share price rose again over the next few days to correct the quick loss a few days preceding the buy in. The Volume is a bit out of the ordinary, that's all.


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## [t..o..m] (15 October 2008)

Iluka increases profit forecast

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=647336

Looks like the extremely low aussie dollar is doing wonders for ILU - $50 Mill  expected profit increase from $20 Mill!


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## So_Cynical (10 April 2009)

Iluka is approaching a new 12 month (52-wk Low 3.04) and near 10 year low after 
announcing that it will reduce production due to weak demand for its major products 
thus far in 2009.  

http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=453

So will ILU bounce now as it always seems to do, or can it go much lower, i would think 
that "on paper" there is more SP downside...but the SP seems to be super resilient...at 
least that's been the case so far...resilient as in no big March09 sell off and the Oct/Nov08
low coincided with the big (WA) interruption to gas supply and resulting reduced production.

Perhaps some of the long term holders will be tempted to bail now as there's been no 
dividend sine 06 and looks to be a few years yet till ILU would be in a position to pay a 
dividend again.

Would seem to be a great channel trading opportunity. :dunno:


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## So_Cynical (15 April 2009)

Hit a low of 2.83 today...i got in at 2.95...time will tell if i got it right :dunno: 
closed above $3 so showing some resilience in the SP at these levels.

There is still lots to like about Iluka.


World #1 Zircon producer (34%)
World #2 titanium minerals Producer (18%)
Sales revenue before hedging $1,018 million.
Reserves equal to 10x 2008 production.
Gearing (net debt/net debt + equity) was 17.4% at 31 Dec 2008.
Top 20 hold over 75%


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## bleach8 (15 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Hit a low of 2.83 today...i got in at 2.95...time will tell if i got it right :dunno:
> closed above $3 so showing some resilience in the SP at these levels.
> 
> There is still lots to like about Iluka.
> ...





I bought some at 3.07 just before it closed. I thought i would break 3.10 which would create a nice candle with volume. however, it came down to 3.01 , the candle doesnt look as good as before. it is still positive signal ...interesting to see what will happen to the price tomorrow. i predict its price will go lower again and bonce back within 2-3 trading days. I will close my postion at around $4 .


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## So_Cynical (15 April 2009)

bleach8 said:


> I bought some at 3.07 just before it closed...I will close my position at around $4




The $4 target prob makes sense...with the production reductions its hard to 
see ILU getting to the top of the old channel....the outlook has changed.

Lets just hope this is the turn around point.


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## bleach8 (15 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> The $4 target prob makes sense...with the production reductions its hard to
> see ILU getting to the top of the old channel....the outlook has changed.
> 
> Lets just hope this is the turn around point.




I think the current price is oversold. The outlook for ILU in 2-3years time is very positive. Zircon price is increasing this year which indicates the supply is at least matching the demand. 

if the price is going down i will grab some more for sure.


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## bleach8 (15 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> The $4 target prob makes sense...with the production reductions its hard to
> see ILU getting to the top of the old channel....the outlook has changed.
> 
> Lets just hope this is the turn around point.




also, can you please tell me what would be a reasonable price to sell at the current outlook. I bought it based on today's positive candle stick. I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock.


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## So_Cynical (16 April 2009)

bleach8 said:


> also, can you please tell me what would be a reasonable price to sell at the current outlook. I bought it based on today's positive candle stick. I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock.




Bleach i don't think we are allowed to give price targets, but at $4 i would be sitting on a 
33%+ profit so would be very happy to exit original capital at that price....and if u look at 
the 10 year chart i posted a few posts back, u will see there's been a lot of shares in Iluka 
change hands at around the $4 mark.

Actually ill just bang up a quick chart to see...ah the 4.25 to 4.50 range is 
very popular....ill just let the SP take me out with a stop..wherever.


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## bleach8 (16 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Bleach i don't think we are allowed to give price targets, but at $4 i would be sitting on a
> 33%+ profit so would be very happy to exit original capital at that price....and if u look at
> the 10 year chart i posted a few posts back, u will see there's been a lot of shares in Iluka
> change hands at around the $4 mark.
> ...




What do u think about today?no break through!but price after volume, we will see if it will be true! I dont really understand their 1st q production report announced today! Is it a bad news? Or? It didnt have much impact on price


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## skc (16 April 2009)

bleach8 said:


> What do u think about today?no break through!but price after volume, we will see if it will be true! I dont really understand their 1st q production report announced today! Is it a bad news? Or? It didnt have much impact on price




The news today is bad, but price has fallen enough that the bad news is already priced in. Just look at what QAN and FLT has done after their recent profit downgrade announcement. See the news here. http://business.smh.com.au/business/iluka-march-quarter-sales-revenue-falls-772-20090416-a80o.html

I bought on the same candle yesterday looking for a reversal. My stop is yesterday's low. Today was an inside range day so nothing changes for me, although would have preferred to see an up day. 

Pardon me for budding in the conversation.


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## So_Cynical (17 April 2009)

skc said:


> The news today is bad




LOL the news today is great  what a difference a day can make...ILU closed 
up 9% today, but was up around 12% intra day.

Below from today's ann. http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=461

_Iluka intends to accept Unimin’s offer for its shareholding in (CRT) Consolidated 
Rutile Limited, currently approximately 187 million shares representing approximately 
51% of CRL shares, in the absence of a superior proposal._

Offer is 41 cents per share, and that should be around 75 million for Iluka, adding 
substantially to Iluka's cash position...hey we mite even get a dividend out of it. :dance:


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## ozbecool (6 May 2009)

*ILU - Iluka Resources - when to sell*

RE: I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock

<< Go to the library or a bookstore and buy some share trading books - or at least one. Or alternatively browse the net for GENERIC exit strategies - there are many to choose from - one of the simplest one (yet not fully optimal) is :
- keep watching the stock while it keeps climbing
- every new peak sets your new PEAK price
- when the price falls X% off the above peak then sell  

*Example:*
- first you PRESET your X level at say 12 % (before even buying the stock, or soon after).
- assume you bought stock XYZ at $3
- then prices start climbing .. $3.2, $3.40, $3.25, $3.7 ... $4.4, $4.5 , $4.3.
- so now YOUR NEW PEAK is $4.5 and at this level SELL EXIT level = $4.5 * (1 - 0.12) = $3.96
- prices now linger ... $ 4.1, $4.4 ... $4.0 , $3.9 !!! - oops - sell trigger here
- so because $3.9 is BELOW your PREDEFINED EXIT POINT so you sell !

Note if you DO NOT sell now at $3.9 (or you adjust X to a higher % value thus lowering the EXIT PRICE) then you can as well ditch any strategy you develop because you do not conform to your own rules.

You can add to the above few more trend indicators etc (like stochastic, Donchian, bollinger bands, exponential averages) but in a nutshell the above is one of the simplest TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGIES without the need to use complex statistics etc. For more details buy yourself an excellent book written by *Michael W.Covel : "TREND FOLLOWING"*, printed 2007. Price is now only AUS $30 at DYMOCKS BOOKSELLERS. When you read that book then you will know why I said that this is an excellent book.


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## So_Cynical (6 May 2009)

*Re: ILU - Iluka Resources - when to sell*



ozbecool said:


> RE: I don't have much idea of what to expect from this stock
> 
> << Go to the library or a bookstore and buy some share trading books - or at least one. Or alternatively browse the net for GENERIC exit strategies - there are many to choose from - one of the simplest one (yet not fully optimal) is :
> - keep watching the stock while it keeps climbing
> ...




Or u can simply choose to take profit, like i did yesterday...19% in 3 weeks is fine for 
me...actually i like ILU long term, so decided to leave the profit in as free carry so just 
withdrew my capitol.

People try to complicate what is essentially a very simple thing...stocks go up, stocks 
go down...u buy, u sell, simple...i suppose i wouldn't make much selling a 1 page book.


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## rhen (27 June 2009)

Is ILU ready to change direction?
The Bull states: _BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Iluka Resources (ILU)

The $84 million received from selling its 51 per cent stake in Consolidated Rutile will provide some relief regarding the debt position of this major mineral sands miner and processor. Iluka’s share price is trading near decade lows due to high levels of capital expenditure on expanding existing operations and developing new mines.  Weak zircon and rutile sales in Asia is affecting the group’s profitability. Wind the clock forward a year or two, and we forecast a return to high profitability as a global economic recovery results in substantial share price gains._

Fundamentally, my regular source suggests ILU may not be ready.
However, for the daily candles, it does look interesting (to me at least) for a possible trade.


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## So_Cynical (27 June 2009)

rhen said:


> Is ILU ready to change direction?
> The Bull states: _BUY RECOMMENDATIONS_



_

ILU looks to be very good for a trade, well into the buy zone...buying under $3 was proven to be 
profitable last time, and as nothing has really changed, i figure it will be again._


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## Jgr64 (28 August 2009)

Anyone got any thoughts on Iluka. It's jumped from ~ $3.50's to over $4.00 in recent days (but low volume) ?


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## So_Cynical (28 August 2009)

Jgr64 said:


> Anyone got any thoughts on Iluka. It's jumped from ~ $3.50's to over $4.00 in recent days (but low volume) ?




Outlook is now positive, capital expenditure coming to an end and the global economic cycle 
on the up...still i reckon $4 is toppy...keeping in mind im not a trend follower.


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## Out Too Soon (6 October 2009)

Looks like $4 was "toppy", I was in at 3.95 without a stop loss  I still think this will recover well soon but I should have put a stop under it 


 Just starting to go sideways, probably about to make a break up (or down),
 -hopefully up.


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## Out Too Soon (12 November 2009)

Well I did set a stop loss after that & I did lose a bit but who said "once bitten twice shy" I'm back in again & expecting a healthy recovery, don't know if it will get back to $4 in one climb tho.


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## Tukker (14 November 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Well I did set a stop loss after that & I did lose a bit but who said "once bitten twice shy" I'm back in again & expecting a healthy recovery, don't know if it will get back to $4 in one climb tho.
> View attachment 34508




Watch out for a double dip scenario.  If the price breaks down, below 3.25, a medium downtrend could be established.  Look for a bit of a recovery on Monday as selling pressure releases and then possible sell off on Wednesday onwards.


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## Out Too Soon (16 November 2009)

Tukker said:


> Watch out for a double dip scenario.  If the price breaks down, below 3.25, a medium downtrend could be established.  Look for a bit of a recovery on Monday as selling pressure releases and then possible sell off on Wednesday onwards.




Sure did "double dip", well spotted. Recovering today, hope it continues, $3.20ish is definitely abandon ship territory 
 Good luck to those holding, I've still got a sell in at $3.99 but that seems kinda silly at present


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## So_Cynical (16 November 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Sure did "double dip", well spotted. Recovering today, hope it continues, $3.20ish is definitely abandon ship territory
> Good luck to those holding, I've still got a sell in at $3.99 but that seems kinda silly at present




$3.20 is buy buy buy territory...i mean what else would u be doing at that level  and why would u be buying at much above that :dunno: the ILU chart clearly shows classic ranging quality's...its pretty much screaming the buy and sell levels.


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## Tukker (18 November 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> $3.20 is buy buy buy territory...i mean what else would u be doing at that level  and why would u be buying at much above that :dunno: the ILU chart clearly shows classic ranging quality's...its pretty much screaming the buy and sell levels.




Agreed, but at the same time i think we are going through a period of bearish price action within that range.  $3.20 would be a reasonable time to buy, so would anything below it (baring any critical news). 

3.15 looks like a medium term resistance line, could make a position based on a stop loss at just below this.

I don't think market sentiment can last for too much longer, too many good days, some profits need to be taken up. As i type this the DJIA is down about 0.4%, so maybe Wednesday/Thursday is the day we see if I'm right or not.


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## So_Cynical (22 January 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> $3.20 is buy buy buy territory...i mean what else would u be doing at that level  and why would u be buying at much above that :dunno: the ILU chart clearly shows classic ranging quality's...its pretty much screaming the buy and sell levels.




Brought back into Iluka today at the open $3.32 didn't think it would see $3.20 so jumped in early  time will tell all of course...this is my second time buying ILU and still hold a small free carry position at $2.95

One day these guys will start paying divis again and by the time that comes around i plan on having a substantial free carry position....my plan is to exit original capital at about the $3.80 level, in a few months time.


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## So_Cynical (19 February 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Brought back into Iluka today at the open $3.32 didn't think it would see $3.20 so jumped in early  time will tell all of course...this is my second time buying ILU and still hold a small free carry position at $2.95
> 
> One day these guys will start paying divis again and by the time that comes around i plan on having a substantial free carry position....my plan is to exit original capital at about the $3.80 level, in a few months time.




I decided to jump early, and so less than 1 month later im out at $3.71  Net profit of around 11% just too easy  ILU has to be one of the best in and out high volume stocks in the ASX100

As per my plan i have left my profit in with a very small amount of capital for a long term hold, my average buy in price has gone up slightly and my shares held have increased by about 30% with about 90% of those shares free carry.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 July 2010)

Iluka's share price has been on the up again lately and today traded above and closed at $5.50 for the first time in almost 3 years...its starting to look like the glory days of buying ILU at under $3.50 are well and truly over. :dunno:

Iluka released a presentation a few weeks ago and were very up beat in last weeks quarterly report...anyone interested can read on.

http://www.iluka.com/_uploads/docum...M Eastern  Western Operations (July 2010).pdf
http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=613

I haven't posted a chart in this thread for a while and i figure a near 3 year high is a good enough excuse  plus gives me a chance to show off my 2 near perfect bottom buys and my 2 way too early sells...still a good example of my buy low and leave profit in strategy to achieve capital growth and a high % return dividend stream.

Of course assuming/anticipating ILU will start paying dividends again in the near future.
~


----------



## So_Cynical (3 September 2010)

ILU traded above $6 today for the first time since probably March 07....very close to a 4 year high close today...what an amazing turn around, bring on the return to dividends.


----------



## So_Cynical (9 November 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> ILU traded above $6 today for the first time since probably March 07....very close to a 4 year high close today...what an amazing turn around, bring on the return to dividends.




Iluka trading above $7.50 today :casanova: almost a 5 year high, its been an outstanding run since late July with the SP now up by around 150% since the July low, and still no dividend announcement.


----------



## matty77 (13 December 2010)

anyone thinking $9.00 and beyond?

could get very interesting from here or has it made its run?


----------



## So_Cynical (13 December 2010)

matty77 said:


> anyone thinking $9.00 and beyond?
> 
> could get very interesting from here or has it made its run?




The SP is looking unrealistic IMO...if we look at the dividend history over the last decade ILU has never paid more than 22 cents for a total calendar/financial year, so a yield at today price of around 2.6%

Is the market pricing in a substantially higher dividend? perhaps a special dividend or return of capital? :dunno: the market is pricing in something good....perhaps if/when the goodies fail to materialise the price mite tank back to a more sustainable $5 something. :dunno: anyway i hope the SP holds up until Feb so i can exit with a CGT discount....ready for a re-entry under $6


----------



## So_Cynical (25 February 2011)

Iluka released there 2010 Full Year Results today. :1luvu:



So_Cynical said:


> Is the market pricing in a substantially higher dividend? perhaps a special dividend or return of capital? :dunno: *the market is pricing in something good*....perhaps if/when the goodies fail to materialise the price mite tank back to a more sustainable $5 something. :dunno: anyway i hope the SP holds up until Feb so i can exit with a CGT discount....ready for a re-entry under $6




Well i was right about the market pricing in something good  ILU has been hitting all time highs since December and today the SP hit yet another all time high of $10.81 on the back of today's 2010 Full Year Results.

Its fair to say the results were somewhat spectacular.  YOY highlights.


Mineral Sands Revenue up 51% 
Mineral Sands EBITDA up 230%
Group EBITDA up 205%
Mining Area C royalty (BHP) up 51%
Net debt down 18%
Dividend reinstated 8 CPS

http://www.iluka.com/Default.aspx?page=130&did=713

The write up in the Australian reckons that the Zircon price could double again in 2011  

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ounces-forecasts/story-e6frg9df-1226012128222
~

I'm just so happy i gave such a high priority to buying ILU shares when i did, ILU was a must have, core portfolio stock for me....i would imagine that ILU would be the only ASX100 stock hitting all time highs today, or pretty much this year. 
~


----------



## So_Cynical (21 March 2011)

ILU hit yet another all time high today $10.99 almost breaking thru $11 and that got me thinking that a index inclusion mite soon be on the cards...a look at the % holdings of the index tracking fund STW confirmed my thinking.

http://www.spdrs.com.au/etf/fund/fund_holdings_STW.html

ILU is currently holding 45th position which is above other stocks already included in the ASX50 like


CPU #48
CFX #49
LEI #52 
SHL #53
CWN #55
BLD #57

I know ASX50 inclusion is not only based on market cap, but surely a re-rating is just a matter of time.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 March 2011)

I sold out today at the open $12.25 all my shares, both parcels for profits of 312% and 265% while im absolutely stoked with the profit and the fact that i get the CGT discount on both parcels...im also very conscious that selling was never part of my overall plan and ILU has the potential to go higher and pay handsome divis down the road.

Also very aware that the ILU SP would fall very quickly on any big negatives coming outa the BRIC Country's...also figured that i could pull higher div yields else where and it was probably better to open another new "open" position rather to just hope i could hold on to the profits.

Anyway Good luck to the holders.

-------------------------

PS: closing out this trade really kicked my stats along and gave a 
big boost to my expectancy (up over 33%)


----------



## tothemax6 (26 March 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I sold out today at the open $12.25 all my shares, both parcels for profits of 312% and 265% while im absolutely stoked with the profit and the fact that i get the CGT discount on both parcels...im also very conscious that selling was never part of my overall plan and ILU has the potential to go higher and pay handsome divis down the road.



So_Cynical, an impressive win .
Makes me wish I had started in the stock market earlier, so I could have ridden the boom in the resource stocks .


----------



## Slipperz (30 May 2011)

Been going allright this year hasn't it. I was looking at this a decade ago and just  saw the current price......multi bagger!


----------



## Dash8 (15 July 2011)

How much higher is Iluka going to go!?

I have just read their '2011 AGM Chairman and Managing Director's Addresses' which was released on 30th May. I took out all the good points and bad points and summarised them like this:

Good:

-Expect significantly improved financial results over 2011 and 2012, and beyond.

-The company’s cash flow generation is much stronger. This has enabled debt to be
reduced. Our net debt has reduced from $312 million at the 31 December 2010 to   $247 million at the end of April.

-Expect significantly improved financial performance from this year forward,             including much stronger cash flows and, with this, the opportunity for strong returns to shareholders.

-As demand has recovered, Iluka has increased zircon prices on five separate occasions from 1 April 2010. The weighted average received price over this period to the end of the June quarter of 2011 has doubled, to an average received price in this quarter of close to US$1,600/tonne.

-For high grade titanium supply, the main avenue we have is the reactivation of idled synthetic rutile kilns.

-Other sources of ilmenite include the Tutunup South mine in Western Australia, which is
expected to come into production next month and be a major part of the feed source for
SR kiln 2, and the potential reactivation of mining at Eneabba in the Mid West to provide
not only ilmenite, but zircon and rutile over a period of a few years.

-We will spend more on exploration activities – particularly greenfield exploration.
From a recent average of $20 million annual exploration, the expenditure planned for this year will be closer to $25 million and move towards $30 million per annum.

-Another is in development of a new product, acid soluble SR, which – as distinct
from our current synthetic rutile products which are used in the chloride pigment process – may be able to be utilised in the sulphate pigment process, which comprises some 45 per cent of the pigment market.

-We have a solid in-country presence in the world’s largest zircon market – China

Bad:

-With the pricing momentum being achieved, it is probable that new raw material projects will be induced. However, as we see it, for both high grade titanium and for zircon, there is not a well defined pipeline of projects, let alone committed, funded or commenced new mines, which will materially impact supply over the medium term.



Prior to 2010, Iluka seemed to be a mess, with very erratic profits and no real direction. Now, things appear to be getting much better and the directors are committed to expanding their company and profits. They have made a big turn around.

I'm waiting for their 2011 annual report to come out and, if profits are still increasing and everything seems to be still on track, I will invest in them.

Does anyone else think that Iluka has a bright future?

Dash.


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 July 2011)

Dash8 said:


> -As demand has recovered, Iluka has increased zircon prices on five separate occasions from 1 April 2010. The weighted average received price over this period to the end of the June quarter of 2011 has doubled, to an average received price in this quarter of close to US$1,600/tonne.
> 
> With the pricing momentum being achieved, it is probable that new raw material projects will be induced. However, as we see it, for both high grade titanium and for zircon, there is not a well defined pipeline of projects, let alone committed, funded or commenced new mines, which will materially impact supply over the medium term.



 Gunson Resources, being a zircon focussed exploration company, compare themselves with Iluka in any reports they put out. They mention that zircon supply will not meet demand in future because there are few new producers coming on. Senegal (MDS) and Kenya (BSE) in Africa to name some. They mention zircon is China's third most imported material and ...


> Current zircon supply squeeze to become acute from 2012


----------



## skc (26 August 2011)

Dash8 said:


> How much higher is Iluka going to go!?
> 
> Does anyone else think that Iluka has a bright future?
> 
> Dash.




So ILU has HY NPAT of $146m... so full year is around $300m? $350m?

And their market cap is... WTF $6.7B  That's like a PE ~20.

Can someone explain why they deserve such high earning multiple?

The chart is looking like it's going to roll over...


----------



## Zedd (8 September 2011)

skc said:


> So ILU has HY NPAT of $146m... so full year is around $300m? $350m?
> 
> And their market cap is... WTF $6.7B  That's like a PE ~20.
> 
> ...




On fundamentals: 

The final products Iluka's raw materials create include the finer things in life - ceramics/porcelain kitchen and bathroom fitouts, tiles, cooking/dinnerware.

The way I see it China and India are well and truly into the infrastructure/housing growth stage, where the raw materials required are steel and energy, hence iron ore and coal going nuts. It's only after you've built the house that you look to deck it out. That's when Iluka is going to have the money really rolling home. Although China's domestic consumption is increasing I don't think we've even begun to see the boom it's going to experience once the overall population gets some serious disposable income.

Long term hold IMO, although do agree that growth of price has bubbled a bit too much and expect to see it calm down for a bit, and drop sharply if the market actually acknowledges that growth hasn't yet returned to what seems to be priced in.


----------



## skc (8 September 2011)

Zedd said:


> On fundamentals:
> 
> The final products Iluka's raw materials create include the finer things in life - ceramics/porcelain kitchen and bathroom fitouts, tiles, cooking/dinnerware.
> 
> ...




Thanks. While I agree the industry seems to be going OK, the valuation of ILU is completely out of whack on the surface. It's like back in 1999 saying internet is the next big thing so I better buy {insert your favourite .com memory} at PE of 120...


----------



## tinhat (27 February 2012)

I've just bought some ILU based on their full year report out last week for the SMSF (pension phase account). Looking to grab the 55c dividend before the ex-div date of 5 March. ILU looks like an all round good buy at the moment with Zircon and Rutile prices looking sustainable in the medium term and with limited new supply (compared to say iron ore). The fully franked dividend is the deal clincher for me. Which leads me to my question...

I've seen the Thompson Reuters analyst forecasts of eps for 2012 of 282.8 and 340.5 for 2013 and for dividends of 153cps for 2012 and 186cps for 2013. Aegis is providing consensus forecasts of 259.6 eps for 2012 and 365.3 eps for 2013). At current prices this works out to a forecast PE of 6 for 2012 falling to 5 for 2013.

While the company said in its recent report that it is targeting a dividend payout rate of 40% of free cash flow it came with some caveats. Those dividend forecasts seem very high to me. I see that they were last updated 25 Jan. I wonder if they will come down with the next consensus update?

I guess the main risk over the medium term is the market price of zircon and rutile. Does anyone have any opinions on the price outlook and also on the earnings and dividend outlook for this company?

For me, for the medium term, at the current price ILU is looking good. Good potential for capital gain, good potential for substantial dividend yield. Even if the dividend is held at 75c fully franked for the next year or two that still represents 6.5% yield (with franking credits). I'd hope for better than that, but I've jumped in and going to give this one a go.


----------



## oldblue (27 February 2012)

From FN Arena.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=ACE458AB-BE07-8714-86EB95FAC1A1F36D

I don't hold ILU.


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## mark299 (3 April 2012)

*ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES*

Latest update from BuySellSignals

http://www.buysellsignals.com/10211121

Does anyone have any idea why this share price is decreasing today?


----------



## tinhat (3 April 2012)

*Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES*



mark299 said:


> Latest update from BuySellSignals
> 
> http://www.buysellsignals.com/10211121
> 
> Does anyone have any idea why this share price is decreasing today?




Because share prices don't travel in straight lines. I think your article explains it - taking a rest. ILU share price is fairly quick to close any gaps and it gapped up yesterday. It will have to come back down to 17.84 to fill in yesterday's gap which it might do at some stage over the next few weeks.


----------



## mark299 (3 April 2012)

*Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES*



tinhat said:


> Because share prices don't travel in straight lines. I think your article explains it - taking a rest. ILU share price is fairly quick to close any gaps and it gapped up yesterday. It will have to come back down to 17.84 to fill in yesterday's gap which it might do at some stage over the next few weeks.





Thanks for the reply. Is ILU a good long term investment ? 3 years or more!


----------



## So_Cynical (3 April 2012)

*Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES*



mark299 said:


> Thanks for the reply. Is ILU a good long term investment ? 3 years or more!



 3 years? will the BRIC bubble continue?

Pull up the ILU 3 year price chart and tell me where you would want to enter and now look at how far we are from that point.


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## robusta (9 July 2012)

Downgraded sales forecast out today, sp down about 20%. I think with a long term view buying below $9 should work out ok.


----------



## tinhat (9 July 2012)

robusta said:


> Downgraded sales forecast out today, sp down about 20%. I think with a long term view buying below $9 should work out ok.



I think that if you believe that the world is not going to end soon then the price is a great price to buy at. My days of catching falling knifes are over though. Would rather wait for a turn around in price and buy with momentum.


----------



## Boggo (9 July 2012)

*Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES*



mark299 said:


> Does anyone have any idea why this share price is decreasing today?






So_Cynical said:


> Pull up the ILU 3 year price chart and tell me where you would want to enter and now look at how far we are from that point.




The weekly chart tells the story, you can see where the smart (in the know) money was exiting.
Another classic example of when the news hits the streets its already done and dusted and all that are left are the mum and dad investors.

(Please folks, don't turn this into another tech vs fundamental discussion. The intention of this post is to highlight this as another example of where its too late when the news hits the streets, the smart money who are in the know have been and are gone. BBG was another recent example of the same)

(click to expand)


----------



## skc (9 July 2012)

*Re: ILU: ILUKA RESOURCES*



Boggo said:


> The weekly chart tells the story, you can see where the smart (in the know) money was exiting.
> Another classic example of when the news hits the streets its already done and dusted and all that are left are the mum and dad investors.
> 
> (Please folks, don't turn this into another tech vs fundamental discussion. The intention of this post is to highlight this as another example of where its too late when the news hits the streets, the smart money who are in the know have been and are gone. BBG was another recent example of the same)




I think this perfectly illustrates the "confluence" of fundamental and technical analysis. The smart money is fundamental analysis. Technical analysis attempts to read the fundamental analysis done by others. Some times one camp gets it more right than the other. 

The bottom line is... you can be a fundamental guy or you can be a technical guy - but you need to be good and to be right in order to make money.

And my musing back in Aug 2011...



skc said:


> So ILU has HY NPAT of $146m... so full year is around $300m? $350m?
> 
> And their market cap is... WTF $6.7B  That's like a PE ~20.
> 
> ...


----------



## robusta (9 July 2012)

tinhat said:


> I think that if you believe that the world is not going to end soon then the price is a great price to buy at. My days of catching falling knifes are over though. Would rather wait for a turn around in price and buy with momentum.




Probably all academic for me anyways, my buy order is in at $8.32 I would be interested if anyone technically minded would hazard a guess as to where the next support is however.


----------



## pixel (9 July 2012)

robusta said:


> Probably all academic for me anyways, my buy order is in at $8.32 I would be interested if anyone technically minded would hazard a guess as to where the next support is however.




$8.32 is the obvious support level (from early 2011).
If that failed, I'd short down to $7.50-ish, with luck even $6.85.

Have to draw a fairly long bow to find a reasonable set of target figures...


----------



## robusta (9 July 2012)

pixel said:


> $8.32 is the obvious support level (from early 2011).
> If that failed, I'd short down to $7.50-ish, with luck even $6.85.
> 
> Have to draw a fairly long bow to find a reasonable set of target figures...
> ...




Cheers pixel I agree in the short term the sp is a bit of a lottery, they are in a better financial position now than 2011 however.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2012)

I wouldn't be making a decision today.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2012)

The support at $8 will be big enough to ensure it doesn't even touch it.  How close then?  $8.15?  Not today, tomorrow.


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## robusta (9 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The support at $8 will be big enough to ensure it doesn't even touch it.  How close then?  $8.15?  Not today, tomorrow.




Thank you for that it would be nice to pick this one up closer to $8.00 than to $8.50. I will be hoping for a risk off night on Wall Street.


----------



## Boggo (9 July 2012)

robusta said:


> Thank you for that it would be nice to pick this one up closer to $8.00 than to $8.50. I will be hoping for a risk off night on Wall Street.




If it stabilizes in the blue area it could be of interest, otherwise stand back.

(click to expand)


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## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2012)

boggo, it's missing today's vital candle.


----------



## Boggo (9 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> boggo, it's missing today's vital candle.




You will have to display what you mean GB.

(I am going out to their Jacinth-Ambrosia project site in west SA on the 18th for the day)


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## Ves (9 July 2012)

A certain Buffett-wannabe said that this was trading at a discount to intrinsic value as recently as May. Fairly sure his program also put a value of $18 on it at the time too.  Wonder what it is today?

A great example of a stock that looks fantastic if you look through the rear view mirror.


----------



## robusta (9 July 2012)

Ves said:


> A certain Buffett-wannabe said that this was trading at a discount to intrinsic value as recently as May. Fairly sure his program also put a value of $18 on it at the time too.  Wonder what it is today?
> 
> A great example of a stock that looks fantastic if you look through the rear view mirror.




Once again this highlights the trouble RM has with relying on forecasts, happily this can create opportunity when those forecasts are missed. As long as the downgrade is not a permanent state of affairs.


----------



## Ves (9 July 2012)

robusta said:


> Once again this highlights the trouble RM has with relying on forecasts, happily this can create opportunity when those forecasts are missed. As long as the downgrade is not a permanent state of affairs.



I will also say that on YMYC (it's on Youtube) he also mentioned that the preferable "conservative" valuation was also shown to have a margin of safety when compared to actual market price in May.

edit:  The point is that it isn't the analyst forecasts or the conservative earnings forecasts that you make up yourself, the fact is that the ROE method of valuation for mining companies (or those with lumpy earnings) just isn't accurate.


----------



## Klogg (9 July 2012)

Ves said:


> ...the fact is that the ROE method of valuation for mining companies (or those with lumpy earnings) just isn't accurate.




I learnt that the hard way... (Not on ILU though).

RM is really showing his true colors with ILU, the mining services company that requested more capital (I forget the name), and his new article contemplating TGA when he just sold out!


----------



## So_Cynical (9 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> (25th-March-2011) I sold out today at the open $12.25 all my shares, both parcels for profits of 312% and 265%




What is it with this forum?, 17 Posts in this thread today on some negative news and the resulting significant price fall, and yet 3 years ago when ILU went from $3 to $12 in a 2 year period there was no interest, nothing, this thread was a ghost town. 

Excluding my posts there are 14 posts from April 09 ($2.80) to Mar 2011 ($12.25)  every one likes a train wreck i suppose.

~

Support? there is none...well support when i was buying was $2.70 that was in early 09 when the world was ending for the first time since the tech wreck, worst case scenario is that it will be support again, i certainly would not be interested until the price got to under $7


----------



## prawn_86 (9 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> What is it with this forum?, 17 Posts in this thread today on some negative news and the resulting significant price fall, and yet 3 years ago when ILU went from $3 to $12 in a 2 year period there was no interest, nothing, this thread was a ghost town.
> 
> Excluding my posts there are 14 posts from April 09 ($2.80) to Mar 2011 ($12.25)  every one likes a train wreck i suppose.
> 
> ...




Well at least there is interest now and discussion. Over the last couple weeks there has been a lot more posts in stock threads.

With regards to ILU, it does seem to be one of those stocks that always has downgrades, and over-reactions to those downgrades. Downer EDI is another one that springs to mind


----------



## Boggo (9 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> What is it with this forum?, 17 Posts in this thread today on some negative news and the resulting significant price fall, and yet 3 years ago when ILU went from $3 to $12 in a 2 year period there was no interest, nothing, this thread was a ghost town.




Get used to it SC, its just how it works.
When I said that TGA was going lower I had a price on my head but when it hit the turn point and I gave an upside target they all went quiet.
The level of responses are potentially an indication of the number of people that have got it wrong and are still holding or are not believing what is happening until they are told why. The next stage for them are the fundamental valuations which are the last stages of psychological justification of indecision.

There are of course others that enter the discussion who see opportunity in a decline and look for downside targets and potential new entry opportunities.

The interesting bit is the time delay in the increased discussion, ILU has been in free fall since 7th May but the discussion seems to be dependant on requiring a company report for confirmation of what anyone with their finger on the pulse would have seen as likely up to two months ago.

Just my


----------



## willstor (11 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Well at least there is interest now and discussion. Over the last couple weeks there has been a lot more posts in stock threads.
> 
> With regards to ILU, it does seem to be one of those stocks that always has downgrades, and over-reactions to those downgrades. Downer EDI is another one that springs to mind




so no quick buck short covering back up a dollar then?


----------



## robusta (25 July 2012)

Could not believe this fell below $8 yesterday so I picked up a small parcel for my super, may be another opportunity today.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 July 2012)

robusta said:


> Could not believe this fell below $8 yesterday so I picked up a small parcel for my super, may be another opportunity today.




When i saw you had posted in this thread i immediately though...no he couldn't of brought all ready. 

But you did...sorry robusta this has to go lower, all things being equal.


----------



## Ves (25 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> But you did...sorry robusta this has to go lower, all things being equal.



Equal to what exactly?


----------



## So_Cynical (25 July 2012)

Ves said:


> Equal to what exactly?




All things.

3 years ago ILU traded at around $3 a share and now trades at around $8.20 ~ 2.7 x higher (approx) so is ILU a 2.7 x better company? is the outlook 2.7 x better? Is the current price realistic all things considered?

I clearly don't think so.


----------



## RottenValue (25 July 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> All things.
> 
> 3 years ago ILU traded at around $3 a share and now trades at around $8.20 ~ 2.7 x higher (approx) so is ILU a 2.7 x better company? is the outlook 2.7 x better? Is the current price realistic all things considered?
> 
> I clearly don't think so.




3 years ago (Jun 2009), ILU had as EPS of -0.07 cents, worst case scenario for 2012 is approximately $1.00 per share.  Current forecast, after the recent downgrades is about $2 in 2013 and $2.30 in 2014

What has that got to do with the short term share price - very little obviously.

I think the outlook is obviously better than it was then - thats why we have a market where people can buy and sell at a moments notice. 

Disclaimer:  happily buying ILU on the dips


----------



## So_Cynical (25 July 2012)

RottenValue said:


> 3 years ago (Jun 2009), ILU had as EPS of -0.07 cents, worst case scenario for 2012 is approximately $1.00 per share.  Current forecast, after the recent downgrades is about $2 in 2013 and $2.30 in 2014
> 
> What has that got to do with the short term share price - very little obviously.
> 
> ...




You mite want to go and look at the 2008 and 09 announcements and look beyond the EPS.

In 2009 i was astounded at posters in this thread talking about selling IAU at $3.20 and now here you are buying (on the way down) at around $8 ~ in 2009 i was the only person buying this and couldn't get anyone else interested. :dunno: 

I think for some people its a lot easier to see value in something that was more valuable compared to seeing future value in something that is not considered valuable.


----------



## skc (26 July 2012)

robusta said:


> Could not believe this fell below $8 yesterday so I picked up a small parcel for my super, may be another opportunity today.




If you simply change your entry criteria from 

"Good" company issuing profit downgrade with uncertain outlook

To

"Cheap" company issuing profit upgrade with positive outlook

I think you will enjoy better win rate and lower drawdown.


----------



## robusta (26 July 2012)

skc said:


> If you simply change your entry criteria from
> 
> "Good" company issuing profit downgrade with uncertain outlook
> 
> ...




Cheers skc I think I know what you are getting at, my entry criteria is for good cheap companies, full stop. The coincidence is many of them only become cheap (in my opinion) due to a over reaction to a profit downgrade.

As for the uncertain outlook, or positive outlook I think you pay a much higher price in the market for a positive outlook. With regards to ILU no doubt there is a heap of uncertainty around but with a strong balance sheet and looking five years plus I think things will work out OK once the great deleveraging is over.


----------



## robusta (23 August 2012)

Interim report out today, dividend up, balance sheet still strong. The ability to vary production and reduce margin deterioration is a rarity in a commodity business.


----------



## tinhat (28 September 2012)

A good day to buy ILU. Buyers who bought on JP Morgan advice in September are capitulating today based on the latest JP Morgan rating.


----------



## willstor (7 October 2012)

robusta said:


> Could not believe this fell below $8 yesterday so I picked up a small parcel for my super, may be another opportunity today.




Well done sir. Take profit whilst it's there though.


----------



## robusta (7 October 2012)

willstor said:


> Well done sir. Take profit whilst it's there though.




Cheers, I think there is more upside in Iluka however. They are one of the few resource companies with a modicum of control over pricing. Any further deterioration in the global economy should result in less production coming on line from competitors and any improvement should have a positive effect on this commodity. Meanwhile the dividend is not too bad while I dither.


----------



## robusta (7 October 2012)

Forgot to add, it would not surprise me if one of the big resource houses or some Chinese conglomerate is thinking the same as me. Iluka could well be a takeover target at somewhere north of $15.00


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## willstor (8 October 2012)

robusta said:


> Cheers, I think there is more upside in Iluka however. They are one of the few resource companies with a modicum of control over pricing. Any further deterioration in the global economy should result in less production coming on line from competitors and any improvement should have a positive effect on this commodity. Meanwhile the dividend is not too bad while I dither.




interesting view...i see what you are saying, personally I think we've seen a huge surge in a short space of time across the board, so I'd be keen to exit anywhere close to 10 with a view to a correction / cool down period. I was in at 905 and out at 10 FWIW, nothing earth shattering but the profit is there.


----------



## robusta (8 October 2012)

willstor said:


> interesting view...i see what you are saying, personally I think we've seen a huge surge in a short space of time across the board, so I'd be keen to exit anywhere close to 10 with a view to a correction / cool down period. I was in at 905 and out at 10 FWIW, nothing earth shattering but the profit is there.




Fair enough, I am terrible at predicting macro events and trends hence I am forced into taking a mu h longer view of my trades.


----------



## willstor (12 October 2012)

I was tempted again at 880 but went for TRU instead at 485 due to the dividend target 530


----------



## dunlop1234 (11 January 2013)

*Iluka Resources ~ New Investor*

Hey guys,
I am new to investing and currently a minor. I thought to myself i might give investing a try and i've gotten a bit worried. I invested $1000 in Woodside and $500 in Iluka Resources. I think i made a mistake with Iluka Resources because they have a dividend yield of 8.6% which i thought was really high. Then i did more research and found a few problems. I didn't pay a brokerage and i bought it at $9.2. Would people recommend I cut my losses and get out with a $20 loss or wait it out? Are the dividend distributions good because i'm not sure it will go up. Do you have any recommendations if I pull out from the share? 
*
Thank you very much for your assistance!! I really appreciate IT! *


----------



## matty77 (11 January 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*

If you sell the loss is realised, if you hold on it isnt a loss.

I would hold it... whats the rush?


----------



## dunlop1234 (11 January 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*

Yeah thanks for the advice, calmed me down a bit. Would u have an idea at what loss it would be time to get out and are the dividends gonna be strong in 2013. Do you think the share will go up?


----------



## So_Cynical (11 January 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*

Hello Dunlop...you will find almost all stocks already have a thread and thus an appropriate place for discussion that is relevant to that particular stock.

The ILU thread can be found here. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6067

And we don't give buy and sell advice.


----------



## skc (11 January 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*



dunlop1234 said:


> Hey guys,
> I am new to investing and currently a minor. I thought to myself i might give investing a try and i've gotten a bit worried. I invested $1000 in Woodside and $500 in Iluka Resources. I think i made a mistake with Iluka Resources because they have a dividend yield of 8.6% which i thought was really high. Then i did more research and found a few problems. I didn't pay a brokerage and i bought it at $9.2. Would people recommend I cut my losses and get out with a $20 loss or wait it out? Are the dividend distributions good because i'm not sure it will go up. Do you have any recommendations if I pull out from the share?
> *
> Thank you very much for your assistance!! I really appreciate IT! *




Work it out for yourself. Here's a hint. Look at their latest production volume for price forecasts. Look at the gross margin and costs, and work out what profit they might make for the half year, and work out how much dividend they can possibly pay.

But if you want to have a longer term view than the immediate half year, then ask yourself what are the drivers of ILU's products and their forecast demand and prices. 

Hold if you get a positive respond, sell if you get a negative respond, or give up if it's all too hard.



matty77 said:


> If you sell the loss is realised, if you hold on it isnt a loss.
> 
> I would hold it... whats the rush?




If you don't check the price, you don't even know it's a loss...


----------



## burglar (12 January 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*



skc said:


> If you don't check the price, you don't even know it's a loss...




In 8 weeks time they will likely pay you a dividend in the order of 55c per share.

A bank deposit will safeguard your capital. 
And pay a pittance in interest.
But it won't make you wealthy.


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## willstor (17 January 2013)

Production reporting today...


----------



## skc (17 January 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*



burglar said:


> In 8 weeks time they will likely pay you a dividend in the order of 55c per share.
> 
> A bank deposit will safeguard your capital.
> And pay a pittance in interest.
> But it won't make you wealthy.




I think you'd be disappointed if you are expecting 55c dividend. Their sales halved from last year's record, and the impact on NPAT is probably an even larger.

History is a poor guide in this case.


----------



## bellamy83 (13 February 2013)

*Re: Iluka Resources~New Investor*



skc said:


> I think you'd be disappointed if you are expecting 55c dividend. Their sales halved from last year's record, and the impact on NPAT is probably an even larger.
> 
> History is a poor guide in this case.




Sounds like a bad investment perhaps? unless you hold?


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## pixel (28 November 2013)

Support? Potential matching Bottom?





Time to add it to my watchlist.


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## Gringotts Bank (28 November 2013)

Long time since a trend change.  I also noticed this today.  I'm more likely to short atm, but no position right now.


----------



## ricee007 (28 November 2013)

Do either of you guys take into consideration the fact that the fundamentals have changed in the last 12 months?


----------



## pixel (28 November 2013)

ricee007 said:


> Do either of you guys take into consideration the fact that the fundamentals have changed in the last 12 months?




yes and no:
By using the chart in this context, I become aware of changed market sentiment; if I am interested in the stock and its story behind the chart, I can always ask "Why?" - and that's when I may become involved with the business model then and now. It's a bit like the chicken-and-egg poser: What do you look at first?


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## Gringotts Bank (28 November 2013)

ricee007 said:


> Do either of you guys take into consideration the fact that the fundamentals have changed in the last 12 months?




I feel like those who move markets (institutional investors/traders) will know all about fundamentals, and therefore it will be reflected in the charts.


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## ricee007 (28 November 2013)

Cheers guys.

Interesting Gringotts. I'm not sure that logic is watertight, but its good to hear it.

I'm still on the sidelines of ILU, thinking about it.... but it is a very negative chart so I am not busting to get in atm.


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## pixel (3 December 2013)

Added a longer-term view (Monthly chart) and found some interesting historic s/r levels coinciding with Fibonacci extensions and a trendline:




Disclosure: Not yet holding, but watching.


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## notting (17 February 2015)

Pulling the plug on mines is highly rewarded these day!


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## notting (17 February 2015)

notting said:


> Pulling the plug on mines is highly rewarded these day!



ILU has sunk from an $18.5 million profit to a $62.5 million full year loss but insists the company's financial health is sound.
Prices for Iluka's zircon and titanium dioxide products had continued to fall, offsetting the benefits of higher sales.

The fully-franked final dividend was increased from 4 to 13 cents a share.:rippergun

A report like this should make you run for the hills, but the market likes it.
Perhaps some smart person pushed it up through a technical level in order to take a big short when that little play finishes!
Opportunity knocks.


----------



## notting (19 February 2015)

Oh we delayed the release of guidance a tad.
Here it is _ Shorters get lucky!


----------



## greggles (17 May 2018)

Iluka Resources flirting with $12, which it last attempted to breach back in late 2013. It's been on a great run since October 2016 having increased in price from $5.50 to around $12. The big question is can it break through $12 convincingly and keep moving higher?


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## greggles (4 September 2018)

greggles said:


> The big question is can it break through $12 convincingly and keep moving higher?




Well, the answer to that question is clearly an emphatic "no". After range trading between $12 and $10.75 for a few months between May and mid-August, the ILU share price took a dive following the release of the company's FY18 results, which didn't actually look that bad to me but must have been below expectations.

Yesterday, the ILU share price touched $9, which served as support in September and November 2017, and it appears that it has done so again this month. Today, Iluka has bounced back to $9.28 and I suspect that we could see a recovery here and a slow climb back to previous highs around $12-$12.25.


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## So_Cynical (4 September 2018)

Iluka has been a good trading stock doing biggish moves up and down, a big stock with lots of liquidity, a big business with shifting CAPEX costs as new mines develop and old mines close, buy cheap be patient and sell near tops and do can do well, 10 year chart below.
~


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## greggles (25 January 2019)

Looks like a double bottom for ILU at $7.00 around Christmas and New Year.

This morning ILU announced the the inaugural Mineral Resource estimate of rutile mineralisation at the Pejebu Deposit in Sierra Leone, which consists of 23.4Mt material at 0.95% in situ rutile, containing 0.22Mt of rutile.

Iluka also released its 31 December 2018 Quarterly Review this morning. I'll reproduce the Key Features section below:






The market liked the report, pushing ILU up 9.7% to $8.24. It's a long way back to those previous highs around $12.25 but at last ILU is heading in the right direction.


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## Boggo (13 June 2019)

Not very convincing behaviour today but one view of it at the moment.

(click to expand)


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## Boggo (21 July 2019)

Follow up from post above.
It's "in the box" at the moment, needs to head to the next target area now. (I hold since break of W.1).

(click to expand)


----------



## barney (22 July 2019)

greggles said:


> Looks like a double bottom for ILU at $7.00 around Christmas and New Year.




I know your post was back in January @greggles  …. but that may have been one of the best calls of the year

Up over 50% since you called it .... in 6 months …… 

I don't hold unfortunately, but buying double bottoms in good stocks after a long down turn is probably a good system to work on


----------



## Boggo (24 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> It's "in the box" at the moment, needs to head to the next target area now. (I hold since break of W.1).




Going the wrong way, go back


----------



## peter2 (24 July 2019)

Don't we hate it when fundamentals interfere with a strong price trend.


----------



## barney (24 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> Going the wrong way, go back




Damn and LOL (in a painful kind of way)  ……

Sometimes I wonder why we bother trying to pick Stocks at all

And people say trying to pick "Specs" is difficult!!

For anyone that bought at yesterdays break of the recent high …..

I am annoyed on your behalf even though I didn't … tough game


----------



## Boggo (24 July 2019)

barney said:


> Damn and LOL (in a painful kind of way)  ……
> 
> Sometimes I wonder why we bother trying to pick Stocks at all
> 
> ...




No problem here barney, my stop is still just above my entry and still intact.

Target areas really are areas to be aware of, this is a perfect example of hitting first chart target and then hesitating and either continuing up or turning back. Happens a lot.

Today's drop wasn't evident on yesterday's ILU daily behaviour whereas in the RRL daily chart there was evidence that someone was on to the upcoming news.


----------



## barney (24 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> Today's drop wasn't evident on yesterday's ILU daily behaviour whereas in the RRL daily chart there was evidence that someone was on to the upcoming news.




Glad you are still in Bog …. Totally unexpected SP today


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## Boggo (26 July 2019)

I had a tight stop on this, breakeven + a bit until the weekly stop moved up to take over.
This mornings opening triggered the alert but it had jumped the stop and the sell price which means I am still in and will probably get stopped out tomorrow arvo on the weekly stop for a loss.

Been having a better than average run so got to expect a hit every so often.

Had an almost identical scenario with RMD back in January where it jumped the weekly stop, I'd been in that for about a year so got out with a significantly reduced profit (am now back in again though). 

All part of the process


----------



## Boggo (26 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> I had a tight stop on this, breakeven + a bit until the weekly stop moved up to take over.
> This mornings opening triggered the alert but it had jumped the stop and the sell price which means I am still in and will probably get stopped out tomorrow arvo on the weekly stop for a loss.




Follow up. It dipped below my weekly stop ($9.19) this morning but then turned up and stayed above it to the close so although holding around $2k in the red I am still in there


----------



## rnr (26 July 2019)

Boggo said:


> Follow up. It dipped below my weekly stop ($9.19) this morning but then turned up and stayed above it to the close so although holding around $2k in the red I am still in there




Hi Boggo,

So is that a +1 then for weekly systems.


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## Boggo (26 July 2019)

rnr said:


> Hi Boggo,
> 
> So is that a +1 then for weekly systems.




I'll tell you next week


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 February 2020)

Iluka will demerge its Mining Area C royalty business following a capital structure review.

The demerger will result in an ASX-listed Australian royalty company with a cornerstone asset of BHP-operated mining area X iron ore operation.

Iluka intends to retain a 15 per cent shareholding in the new company, which will be headquartered in Perth. It will be effected by a distribution of shares in the new company via an in-specie dividend and capital return by Iluka.

Separately, Iluka reported a full year net loss after tax of $300 million, swinging from a $304 million profit last year. The result was hit by a $414 million writedown from Sierra Rutile and the removal of a $162 million deferred tax asset.

Mineral sands revenue dipped 4.1 per cent to $1.19 billion. Loss per share reached 71¢, compared to earnings per share of 71.8¢ year ago. It declared a final dividend of 8¢ a share, down from 19¢ last year.

The mixed market conditions of 2019 are expected to continue into 2020, it said. It expects to produce 280,000 tonnes of zircon, 230,000 tonnes of rutile and 225,000 tonnes of synthetic rutile. Capital expenditure is expected to be $135 million in 2020.


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## Trav. (20 February 2020)

I just flew home from MAC yesterday and I had no idea that ILU had a royalty at MAC..there you go..learn something every day


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## Dona Ferentes (20 February 2020)

Sell-side analysts value the royalty at as much as $2 billion – and the shareholders think it could be worth even more given the quality of the counterparty (BHP) and movements in bond yields. 

The royalty ensures Iluka 1.232 per cent of Australian denominated revenue from MAC and a one-off payment of $1 million per million tonne increase in annual capacity....


----------



## Student of Gann (22 August 2020)

Just had a look at ILU which is not on my radar and Top is indicated for the 21st August so will look to short it at 9.97 if price pulls back to that point .


----------



## Student of Gann (24 August 2020)

ILU  :  
	

		
			
		

		
	






	

		
			
		

		
	
 21st August Top in place .


----------



## Dark1975 (25 August 2020)

Student of Gann said:


> ILU  :
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I personally wouldn't be shorting this chart, Unless i have missed something you could point out ?
The trend line suggests over 80 candles a series of higher lows consolidating in to resistance /support line creating a possible leg up or a pause, 
Me personally i'd prefer to see the current chart to go below either the last two points of resistance of $9.50 or $8.90 to show a change in trend,
The last to candles i have circled both forming hammer's, If the candles pointed as a shooting star then maybe a possible change in trend,
Also note a commodity chart in this current run would suggest otherwise,


----------



## Student of Gann (25 August 2020)

yes Price exceeded the Cycle High Date . I didnt end up taking this trade which was lucky .


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 January 2021)

ILU over the last 12 months, now adjusted for the Deterra Royalties Ltd (*DRR*) demerger - announced Sept, in effect by Nov.






Probably a cleaner company now, and easier to price. With a PE of 46, it ain't cheap,.... gains already priced in for the new RE story (hat tip _Mick_) that ILU is looking to hitch on.

Recently,  ILU said it was _looking at "constructing a rare earth refinery at Eneabba in Western Australia", and any move downstream will allow Iluka to capture more of the value chain, and give a boost to its revenue and profit margins. 

It has plans to increase sales of rare earths to 9,000 tonnes a year from the second half of 2021. This will be done via the ramp-up of the Eneabba Phase 2 project. The development of the Wimmera project could then take Iluka to 15,000 tonnes a year, or around 10% of the global market share, by 2025 or 2026._



> “Notwithstanding the permitting and technical challenges, our analysis shows that if ILU were to expand into downstream refining of monazite into a rare earth oxides, this could increase the value of the Eneabba & Wimmera projects to c. A$1.2bn,” said Goldman Sachs.



"That equates to a $2.70 a share uplift to the Iluka share price and the broker has upgraded its 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecast on the stock by 45%. This in turn prompted Goldman to up its price target on the Iluka share price by 22% to $7.20 a share". Goldman also  "believes Iluka’s zircon and TiO2 sales will bounce by 20% this year with improving global demand for ceramics and pigment, with a belief that there will be a supply deficit of zircon this year due to falling global supply."


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## mullokintyre (14 January 2021)

Zircon  is supposed to be tending towards short supply.
Mines in OZ - Gingko, Snapper, Gwindinup, Atlas Campape and Wonnerup were all  subsumed into Beemax.
One of my old favourites, Bemax, has been subsumed into Cristal Mining, a wholly owned  co owned by private interests in Saudi Arabia.  Does Josh Freydenberg know about this?


----------



## sptrawler (11 May 2021)

Further to @Dona Ferentes post in January.
Iluka looking to build a rare earths processing plant in W.A, mid way between Geraldton and Perth, at last a bit of onshore value adding. Maybe.









						Iluka finds favour in bid to build rare earths refinery
					

The ASX-listed miner’s proposal to build the nation’s first full-scale rare-earths refinery has gained the support of senior Morrison government ministers.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
A proposal to build the country’s first full-scale rare earths refinery has secured the support of senior Morrison government ministers, as Australia works to position itself as a key supplier of raw ingredients in smartphones, electric cars and wind turbines.

The board of ASX-listed Iluka Resources, a $3.6 billion company, is assessing the feasibility of developing a refinery at Eneabba in Western Australia to process rare earths – a group of elements used in a range of high-tech products and military weapons systems.
If the project proceeds, it would position Iluka as just the second non-Chinese supplier of refined rare earths materials, along with its larger rival Lynas Corp.
Federal Resources Minister Keith Pitt and Trade Minister Dan Tehan, who met with Iluka’s board of directors in March, said the Eneabba project was aligned with the Morrison government’s objective to move Australia further along the rare earths value chain.

“Establishing a domestic rare earths oxide production capability would move Australia further along the rare earths value chain, create regional jobs, capture more economic benefit from Australia’s resources and build security in the global supply of critical minerals,” the two ministers wrote in a letter dated May 10.



			Iluka (ASX:ILU) share price falls despite government letter


----------



## DrBourse (25 November 2021)

25/11/21 8.00am

ILU Financials only rate as GOOD from a scale of VG, Good, Av, Bad, VB.

IV is closer to $6.50 so with SP @ $8.55 it is considered EXPENSIVE atm.

TA suggests it is just above a Support Line of $8.50, LR (pages 139 to 142) is still in a Downtrend, However CCI (pages 108 & 109), and MFI (p 95) both suggest a ST Uptrend.






These are my personal observations, they may be of interest to some punters.
NOTE:- I DO NOT hold ILU atm.
Remember to DYOR.

Cheers.

DrB


----------



## mullokintyre (4 April 2022)

Not much discussion on ILU, but that might be about to change.
Up 4% today, probably partly due to this announcement.
From the Australian


> The federal government will kick in almost 90 per cent of the direct costs of building Iluka Resources’ $1.2bn rare earths refinery through a low-cost loan, as the mineral sands major confirms its full-blown move into the rare earth market.
> Iluka said on Monday its board ticked off on the construction of a $1.2bn refinery in WA, with the federal government to chip in a $1.05bn low-cost loan to help build the plant, which will produce about 17,500 tonnes of rare earth oxides each year.
> 
> The project will be Australia’s first domestic rare earth refinery, and Iluka said construction will begin late this year, with first production due in 2025.
> ...



Finally the government has put money into something that might be useful.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (4 April 2022)

time will tell 

 ( i hold ILU )

 i remember the logic used when LYC chose Malaysia  for their plant


----------



## Craton (4 April 2022)

ILU has seen on a bit of an uptick since Dec 2021


----------



## bk1 (4 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Finally the government has put money into something that might be useful.




You're a hard man to please. 
Thats an awful lot of money to try and gain a foothold in a market that is totally dominated by China. I realise that it was the only way ILU could make it happen, however, there is a reason Lynas had to go overseas to process their ores.
Lets hope that all permits and approvals pass without a problem and the feedstock used is monazite.


----------



## CityIndex (4 April 2022)

Craton said:


> ILU has seen on a bit of an uptick since Dec 2021



The move ended up stalling right at $12.50, but since the stock is trading at all-time-highs it isn’t profit-taking at a nice round number.

What was interesting was that buyers stepped in to support $ILU right around the previous highs at $11.85, and if it can continue to hold above this level it might be an indication that today’s news could help sustain the uptrend.

Of course, all trading carries risk, and a break below this level might open the possibility for a deeper pullback on further profit taking.


----------



## DrBourse (5 April 2022)

DrBourse said:


> 25/11/21 8.00am
> 
> ILU Financials only rate as GOOD from a scale of VG, Good, Av, Bad, VB.
> 
> ...



The next 3 Trading Days should give a clearer signal on ILU’s next move.

ILU is still trading within it’s IV Range of $8.87 to $13.69 (The grey area on the chart).

There are still Q’s abt the recent Finance Deal – punters may pause till the truth is known – and if they do pause for a while, they may look at the Technicals.

Most ST & LT Inds are rising, the CCI is approaching a SHH (pages 108 & 109), and the LR is approaching the Top of the Sell Zone (pages 139 to 142) The candles for 4/2/22 and 5/4/22 are a worry, as is the Gap Up that it created.

Personally I would require conifirmation TA Signals B4 I act.





Remember that I use FA to Select Securities, Then I Trade them based on TA - I do not trade securities on FA.

ILU’s Debt to Equity atm is Very Low – However - Might jus add a bit more to this post abt “DEBT”.

Basically, the Debt to Equity Ratio (D/E Ratio) is explained as “to express all company liabilities as a % of Shareholders Equity”…..

I should also mention that there are NUMEROUS different ways to calculate the D/E Ratio…

Here are a few of the options:- ….

1. Total Liabilities/Shareholder Equity multiplied by 100 = Ratio %....

2. Interest Bearing Debt/ Shareholder Equity multiplied by 100 = Ratio %....

3. Interest Bearing Debt minus Cash/ Shareholder Equity multiplied by 100 = Ratio %....

4. Shareholder Equity/Long Term Debt multiplied by 100 = Ratio %....

5. Long Term Debt plus Total Equity = Capitalisation THEN That capitalisation Total is used in the final calculation of:- Capitalisation/Long Term Debt multiplied by 100 = Ratio %....

6. Total Liabilities/Net Worth minus Intangible Assets…

7. Financial Debt/ Shareholder Funds minus Intangibles & Preference Capital…

And there are several more ways to calculate a D/E Ratio…

Some Analysts show their D/E Ratio as “Gearing or Leverage Ratios”…



Not sure yet where ILU’s Debt to Equity Ratio will end up.

So, Misinterpreting the D/E Ratio can be fatal to your profits – you may be missing out on a great trade because you used a D/E Ratio that was ridiculously high, when, with the correct calculation is was actually very low…

The bottom line as usual is DYOR…

Find out how your provider calculates their D/E Ratio, and then decide if that calculation is what you need to help in your analysis procedures….

Basically a High Debt/Equity Ratio needs to be investigated before anyone jumps to an incorrect assumption....

Debt can be a problem in some cases, But for some stocks the "Excessive Debt" is Providing Positive Returns to Shareholders....

Remember there is "Good, Productive Debt" But there is also "Bad and Unproductive Debt", the trick is identifying what is OK relative to individual companies....



Say that Debt is helping provide a 2.5% Div Yield,…..Zero Debt they would also probably have a Zero Div Yield - so theoretically a bit more Productive Debt could increase that return substantially - This is where astute directors etc come to the fore - Good Financial Management will make a company greater - Bad Financial Management will send a company broke....

Have you researched the Co Directors and the Financial Team, what is their past record like???....Do they know what they are doing with the current ??% Debt/Equity Ratio???......How much is Short Term Debt, How much is Long Term Debt, What are the Loan Contract Details...are there Roll Over Provisions in the Contracts....What are the Loan % Rates, and are the Rates Competitive, or are they exorbitant????….Look at their Balance Sheet/Financial Position, Do they have money invested that could be used to repay the debts at a minutes notice????…..

What are the Tax Implications with such a High Debt Load, Good or Bad????….

In the current interest rate environment, can higher Debt to Equity ratios be sustained.



Back in the Old Days punters like us only had those mythical % guidelines to help our decision making process - in todays environment we have endless research resources at our fingertips..



The Old Rules like the ones people refer to are just that, "Old Rules".



These are my personal observations, they may be of interest to some punters.
NOTE:- I hold ILU atm.
Remember to DYOR.

Cheers.

DrB


----------



## mullokintyre (13 April 2022)

Hit another 52 week high this morning.
Onwards and upwards, or as we say in Toy Story Land, to Infinity and beyond.
Mick


----------



## DrBourse (13 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Hit another 52 week high this morning.
> Onwards and upwards, or as we say in Toy Story Land, to Infinity and beyond.
> Mick



I note that Profit Takers seem to hit ILU after almost every 2nd or 3rd Green Candles (Long and Short), SO, $13.00 looks like where they might hit again.
In the ST I am ignoring todays Candle Colour, The price action atm is more important than the Red/Green visual - LT Inds are all +ive atm - I would need to recalculate SP after that next ST Pullback.


----------



## divs4ever (13 April 2022)

Iluka Resources (ILU) announced its intention to “demerge Sierra Rutile” as an “ASX listed, West African focused mineral sands company”. ILU says that the demerger, which is expected to be completed in 2022, will “allow ILU to focus its capital allocation priorities & management attention on its core Australian assets & development opportunities”. ILU shares added 0.9%.

 DYOR

 i hold ILU

 time will tell if the demerged  company offers any value ( to me ) , NORMALLY i tend to avoid African-based businesses ( ZIM is the major exception )


----------



## mullokintyre (26 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> Iluka Resources (ILU) announced its intention to “demerge Sierra Rutile” as an “ASX listed, West African focused mineral sands company”. ILU says that the demerger, which is expected to be completed in 2022, will “allow ILU to focus its capital allocation priorities & management attention on its core Australian assets & development opportunities”. ILU shares added 0.9%.
> 
> DYOR
> 
> ...



Analyst from Livewiremarkets provides an interesting case for demergers in general, and for ILU in particular.



> Every CEO/board has a favourite division. Capital is a scarce asset and, when push comes to shove, that capital will tend to gravitate to the favourite child. When there are extra corporate costs, they will tend to be shoved more to the less loved children, which has the impact of understating the earnings of the 'ugly duckling'.
> 
> The CEO and chairman are then often forced to make a choice about which division is their favourite child as they must make the decision about where they are going to remain.
> 
> ...



The article goes on longer, and IMHO is worth a good read, looking athe case of GNC and IPL.
Mick


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## divs4ever (20 June 2022)

DEMERGER OF SIERRA RUTILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Iluka has today released the Demerger Booklet containing information regarding the proposed
demerger of Sierra Rutile Holdings Limited (Sierra Rutile).
The demerger will result in two independent ASX-listed companies. Iluka will continue to be a leading
global supplier of critical minerals. Sierra Rutile will be a West African focused mineral sands producer
and developer, with principal business activities including the operation of its existing Area 1 mine;
and progressing the development of the globally significant Sembehun project.
Iluka shareholders will have the opportunity to vote on the demerger at a meeting on 22 July 2022.
If the demerger proceeds, eligible shareholders will be entitled to receive one share in Sierra Rutile for
every Iluka share held at the demerger record date (5.00pm AWST 28 July 2022).
Iluka’s Directors unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the proposed demerger.
The Independent Expert, Deloitte Corporate Finance Pty Limited, has concluded that the demerger is
in the best interests of Iluka shareholders.
It is expected that the distribution of Sierra Rutile shares to Iluka shareholders will qualify for demerger
tax relief. As is usual, this is subject to a final ruling being issued by the Australian Tax Office post
demerger implementation.
Detailed information relating to the demerger is included in the following documents which have been
lodged with the ASX and posted on Iluka’s website
• Chairman’s Letter to shareholders
• Demerger Booklet
• Sierra Rutile investor presentation
• Proxy Form – General Meeting
• Demerger Sale Facility Form
Subject to shareholder approval, it is expected that Sierra Rutile shares will commence trading on the
ASX on a deferred settlement basis from 27 July 2022.
2
Teleconference details
Iluka will host a conference call for equity market participants to discuss the proposed demerger. The
call will take place at 8.00am (AWST) on Monday, 20 June 2022. Participants wishing to join the
conference call are advised to pre-register online by following the link the below.
Joining the conference call:
1. Please register in advance of the conference call using the link provided below. Upon
registering you will be provided with participant dial-in numbers, Direct Event passcode
and unique registrant ID. The conference ID is:1444168
2. In the 10 minutes prior to the event start time, you will need to use the conference access
information provided in the email received at the point of registering.
Direct Event online registration: https://apac.directeventreg.com/registration/event/1444168
This document was approved and authorised for release to the market by Iluka’s Managing Director.

===================================================================================
i hold ILU


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## divs4ever (22 June 2022)

ENEABBA RARE EARTHS REFINERY

EPCM CONTRACT AWARDED TO FLUOR
Iluka is pleased to announce it has awarded Fluor Australia (Fluor) the contract to complete the Front
End Engineering Design (FEED) and undertake Engineering, Procurement and Construction
Management (EPCM) services for the Eneabba rare earths refinery.
This is an important step in the delivery of the refinery and Iluka’s rare earths diversification. Fluor has
over 100 years of experience in engineering, procurement and construction services and has a strong
record in project delivery. Iluka looks forward to working closely with Fluor to ensure successful
execution of this globally significant development.
Iluka announced the final investment decision for the Eneabba refinery on 4 April 2022.
1
This development is fully funded under a risk sharing arrangement between Iluka and the Australian
Government. The refinery will be fully integrated, producing light and heavy separated rare earth
oxides and capable of processing feedstocks from Iluka’s portfolio and from a range of third party
suppliers. This includes both mineral sands and rare earths deposits. Construction is scheduled to
commence later this year, with first production scheduled for 2025.
This document was approved and authorised for release to the market by Iluka’s Chief Financial
Officer and Head of Development.
Investor and media enquiries
Luke Woodgate
Group Manager, Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs
Mobile: + 61 (0) 477 749 942
Email: investor.relations@iluka.com

==================================================================================

i hold ILU

not a particular fan of REEs and no production before 2025 rates this as a ' nothing-burger ' for me  , but others might disagree


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## Sean K (29 July 2022)

Potential bottom for Iluka around $8 although, it might just be bouncing along with the general market. Resistance at $10.


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## Dona Ferentes (24 August 2022)

Key features 
_• Mineral sands revenue up 30%, reflecting higher prices across all of Iluka’s products _
_• Mineral sands EBITDA of $505 million, up 69% 
• Mineral sands EBITDA margin improved to 53% from 41% in H1 2021 
• NPAT of $369 million, up 186%  
• Operating cash flow of $481 million and free cash flow of $350 million 
• *Demerger *of Sierra Leone business completed – Sierra Rutile trading independently from 4 August  
• Net cash position of $600 million at 30 June 2022, up from $295 million at 31 December 2021 - Sierra Rutile demerged with $106 million cash, including US$45 million rehabilitation trust 
• Rare earths diversification confirmed – FID for Eneabba rare earths refinery 
• Continued progress throughout development pipeline 
• Dividends received from 20% holding in Deterra Royalties of $12 million _
_• Interim H1 2022 Iluka dividend of 25 cps, fully franked (double the 12c in pcp)_


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## rcw1 (24 August 2022)

*Financial Review Article dated 24/08/22, 2.52pm written by Brad Thompson.*
Iluka Resources is eyeing a premium for non-China supply of rare earths oxides as it prepares to start construction of Australia’s first fully integrated refinery, thanks to a $1.25 billion non-recourse loan from taxpayers.

The mineral sands miner is in the enviable position of not having to sign rare earths off-take agreements for now as funding for the plant at Eneabba in Western Australia is coming from the federal government’s critical minerals fund being administered by Export Finance Australia.  Iluka intends to process rare earths for third parties and has left the door open to Lynas Rare Earths, the world’s biggest non-China supplier, to provide feedstock. However, that appears a long shot as Lynas is investing in its own downstream processing assets.

Iluka reported a near 30 per cent jump in first-half mineral sands revenue to $954.9 million and net profit after tax of $369 million, up from $129 million for the same period last year, on the back of strong prices for its zircon and high-grade titanium feedstocks.

The company’s share price had jumped more than 8 per cent to $10.24 by Wednesday afternoon.
Managing director Tom O’Leary maintained Iluka would not have gone ahead with the rare earths plant at Eneabba without government support even in light of the strong first-half results and balance sheet boost.

The Eneabba refinery will produce rare earth oxides praseodymium, dysprosium, neodymium and terbium, which are in demand for use in electric vehicles, clean energy generation, defence and other sectors as Australia, the United States and other Western nations look to reduce their dependence on China.

‘Nothing’s off the table’​Iluka is looking to process large monazite-rich stockpiles left behind from mineral sands mining at Eneabba that it values at well over $1 billion. It will also refine rare earths for third parties at Eneabba and could eventually take feedstock from a long-life zircon-rare earths mine it plans to develop at Wimmera in Victoria.

Lynas has a world-class mine in WA where it is building downstream processing capacity to complement its refinery in Malaysia. Lynas is also working on a processing plant in Texas with funding support from the Pentagon.  Mr O’Leary said nothing was off the table in terms of one day processing feedstock from Lynas, which is due to report its full-year results on Friday.  “Our plant could certainly process Lynas feedstock. Whether Lynas would want to do that is really up to them,” Mr O’Leary said.  “I’ve emphasised before that we’re a very collaborative company and always open to engagement with many parties. It may be that at some point Lynas might want to secure a more secure supply chain for its own production process, so nothing’s off the table from my perspective.”  Mr O’Leary said there was keen interest in off-take from Eneabba, which is scheduled to start production in 2025, with the prospect of attracting a premium over Chinese-produced rare earths.  “The extent to which customers are prepared to pay a premium? I think it is quite likely, and we are seeing an interest in that,” he said.  “I think customers inevitably want to understand what they are getting for that, and they’ll want to see, for example, some ESG (environmental, social, and governance) certification in respect of the benefits they get from a Western supplier like ourselves.  “Given that we are fully funded for the refinery, the key point is that we are not in a major rush to put those contracts in place.”
Mr O’Leary said Iluka could eventually operate standalone rare earths mines given the refinery would need feedstock for many decades.
Delivering for shareholders​In the meantime, it looks set to push ahead with its mineral sands project pipeline at Balranald in NSW, Atacama in South Australia and Wimmera as it prepares to restart a synthetic rutile kiln at Capel in WA that has been idle since 2009.  The restart will see both kilns at Capel operating and boost synthetic rutile production by 110,000 tonnes a year.  Mr O’Leary said the “risk-sharing” loan agreement on Eneabba reflected the close alignment of Iluka’s strategy with the government’s objective of diversifying supply of rare earths oxides.  “We have a very successful mineral sands business ,,, and that’s delivering for shareholders strongly at the present time,” he said.  “We can’t simply risk value associated with that mineral sands business and our balance sheet entirely to implement government policy if you like and deliver on the critical minerals strategy given the potential risks associated with that diversification.  “So, the risk-sharing arrangement that we’ve struck with government really addresses that risk and acknowledges that very significant contributions have been made here by the government and Iluka.  “The government putting up the risk-sharing facility and Iluka putting up its stockpile of monazite feed for the refinery valued at well in excess of $1 billion as well our credibility and operating experience and marketing expertise.”


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## Sean K (25 August 2022)

rcw1 said:


> *Financial Review Article dated 24/08/22, 2.52pm written by Brad Thompson.*
> Iluka Resources is eyeing a premium for non-China supply of rare earths oxides as it prepares to start construction of Australia’s first fully integrated refinery, thanks to a $1.25 billion non-recourse loan from taxpayers.
> 
> The mineral sands miner is in the enviable position of not having to sign rare earths off-take agreements for now as funding for the plant at Eneabba in Western Australia is coming from the federal government’s critical minerals fund being administered by Export Finance Australia.  Iluka intends to process rare earths for third parties and has left the door open to Lynas Rare Earths, the world’s biggest non-China supplier, to provide feedstock. However, that appears a long shot as Lynas is investing in its own downstream processing assets.
> ...




And, looks like it's making it's way through $10. Lots of chop between here and $11.


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## Sean K (26 October 2022)

Meandering sideways between $8-11 for some time now. I'm still pretty sure rare earths outside of China are going to be very valuable in the coming years.


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## Sean K (9 December 2022)

I've had this on.my short list for a longer term rare earths play, thinking that we're going to go off China big time in the coming years once the Taiwan thing inevitably happens. Been going sideways for yonks now. Perhaps there's no bad time to get into this between this zone, and trade the peaks and troughs as they come and go.


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