# The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread



## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

Ahh!

4 Days of decline in my stock and it seems through-out the entire sector! I have equity in Red Fork Energy (RFE) and we went from a 50.5c close early in the week to a rediculous 42c open as of today the 8/5/2011!

What do I do? I don't want to make a mistake and I know that this stock is under valued as they have not commenced their operations but I am starting to panic watching my portfolio sink!

I need some advice and trying to figure out what is going on to trigger so many sales. Even Mt Isa Metals (MET) who were trading strong at almost 50c are down to a whopping 34c as of 11:11am 8/5/2011 even though yesterdays financial news dictated an increase in metal prices....


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## djhenry1981 (5 August 2011)

*Re: ASX going to Sh*t! My oil *

Everyone is getting raped today, look on the bright side, you have some oil for lube!

It's simply a bloodbath, but it may offer some good bargains.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"


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## Boggo (5 August 2011)

*Re: ASX going to Sh*t! My oil *



djhenry1981 said:


> Everyone is getting raped today, look on the bright side, you have some oil for lube!




Not sure what you mean, my cash is the same value today that it was yesterday


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## Joe Blow (5 August 2011)

I have decided to rename this thread as I feel we need a nice general thread like this one for days like today when the ASX goes into freefall and we get the inevitable panic. 

Please continue.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

*Re: ASX going to Sh*t! My oil *



djhenry1981 said:


> Everyone is getting raped today, look on the bright side, you have some oil for lube!
> 
> It's simply a bloodbath, but it may offer some good bargains.
> 
> "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"




You think I should let it ride or get the f*uck out? I Can't believe the sudden drop and no clear view of recovery! I am not one to buy/sell on a frequent basis but now am kicking myself for not cashing in my chips at 50c...

Bargains are BS at the moment when your portfolio is up sh*ts creek and the paddle is long gone!

Thanks for taking notice of my thread, Admin....


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## djhenry1981 (5 August 2011)

Cant give you specific advice dude, it's against the rules of the forum.


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## Joe Blow (5 August 2011)

Rex, nobody here can advise you to buy or sell any particular stock. Only licensed financial advisers are allowed to do that.

They can give you their opinion about the stock and what they think it's worth, but offering specific financial advice to others on forums like ASF is a big no-no.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

djhenry1981 said:


> Cant give you specific advice dude, it's against the rules of the forum.




Ah damn it....

Well, now I am just lost. I hate losing money (lol) but I know this stock will boost eventually! Their operations have not started yet, in regards to my stock. But wow, the entire ASX has just busted like a nutley hooker on a vegas craps table....

Godfather can't you grant me this one wish? Lol


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## skyQuake (5 August 2011)

*Re: ASX going to Sh*t! My oil *



RexBudman said:


> Bargains are BS at the moment when your portfolio is up sh*ts creek and the paddle is long gone!




Why are bargains "BS" if ur portfolio has taken a hit?
There were plenty of good boucnes this morning. Even with the SPI making new lows, they're way above this morning's panic/stoploss/margin liquidation.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

Jst got word of a prediction by my father financial advisors; they are looking at a 30% crash in the next two weeks - what is the validity of such a prediction? I find it to be far fetched...


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## ChrisJH (5 August 2011)

Well that was fun!

Wish I had taken my money out of the market a few weeks ago like I had planned, lot's of good buys. 

I'm new to this sort of downward spiral, not sure if it is in my best interest to hold now, or to sell for these hefty losses in the belief that it's only going to get worse and preserve as much capital as I can.

Fun times.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

ChrisJH said:


> Well that was fun!
> 
> Wish I had taken my money out of the market a few weeks ago like I had planned, lot's of good buys.
> 
> ...




See that is what Iwant to know. Should I hold, sell, accumulate - what? Advisors are still holding a buy signal for my particular stock but what is a good all round move at this time?

If that information is still against forum rules then I apologise and wish not advice but wish I could hear what you all are doing


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## VSntchr (5 August 2011)

Forget about the price of the stock. Consider local and global events and the impacts they will have on future earnings. 

If the market wasn't crashing, would you have otherwise considered selling this stock today? If you are sure of the earnings potential then it may be wise to ignore accepting a silly price for your stock.

I have not researched the stock in question in the slightest so my reccommendations are clearly general in nature and do not constitute advice!


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Forget about the price of the stock. Consider local and global events and the impacts they will have on future earnings.
> 
> If the market wasn't crashing, would you have otherwise considered selling this stock today? If you are sure of the earnings potential then it may be wise to ignore accepting a silly price for your stock.
> 
> I have not researched the stock in question in the slightest so my reccommendations are clearly general in nature and do not constitute advice!






I've had to pull out but still have my eye on the stock. Perhaps I can cut the losses jump back in at a bargain price, increase the holdings and re-coup the losses quickly just before October...


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## sptrawler (5 August 2011)

It's not just 2nd liners that are getting hit, there is a lot of great quality stocks getting hammered. Just look at it as a buying opportunity, the world isn't going to end. Well not this week.LOL
Look objectively at your stock and if it has no upside potential quit it and buy something better. If it is still a good stock buy some more at a cheaper price, you can't go wrong. Well not always.LOL


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## James58209 (5 August 2011)

This thread will no doubt attract a few newbies who are panicking about having lost significant value from their portfolios in recent weeks. I am not a financial adviser, I am not trying to give specific advice. But I can't help pointing out that a lot of stock market beginners get burned by clichÃ©s like "Rule 1. Don't lose any money. Rule 2. Never forget Rule 1." They assume that eventually all investments will go up in value, and if there is a big drop in value, they should hold on or buy more. Unfortunately, things are not guaranteed to get better in a hurry. Look at what would have happened if you had bought BlueScope Steel (BSL) at a bargain price of $5 in 2008 after it dropped from $12. What is needed is calm rational thinking and appropriate risk management. Can you afford to lose another 10% of your portfolio value? If not, do you want to use stop losses (automatic sell orders)? Be aware though that stop losses can trigger just as the market bounces back up and make you regret using them in the first place. But at least placing stop losses demonstrates that you are thinking about risk management.


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## TheAbyss (5 August 2011)

The average correction is around 12% and we are down around 10% so far so not far to go (hopefully).

Margin Calls abound and just maybe this is the sell off we needed to get things moving again until the next drama unfolds.

Lets face it, a diet of negative headlines etc, Market Rout, fear of everything from debt defaults, lack of faith in world leaders to repair the damage, price of Oil, contagion effect, debt levels etc.

Major sell off like this might be a sign of a temporary halt to the fall?


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## alexc2005 (5 August 2011)

This is soooo screwed. Down 12% overall at the moment and a bit scared to buy at what i consider cheap prices. I bought yesterday at what i thought was cheap.

Will monday be cheaper?

Will the monday after that be cheaper?

Hard to know, all i know is im learning very quickly that its worth having money stashed for something like this. and no matter how good the company is, market sentiment is king!


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## Awesomandy (5 August 2011)

Times such as now are the moments of truth - does my strategy make sense? Am I investing/trading at the risk level that I'm comfortable with? Am I following my plan with discipline? If you can answer yes to all 3 questions, then you probably wouldn't even be reading this "panic" thread.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

Awesomandy said:


> Times such as now are the moments of truth - does my strategy make sense? Am I investing/trading at the risk level that I'm comfortable with? Am I following my plan with discipline? If you can answer yes to all 3 questions, then you probably wouldn't even be reading this "panic" thread.





You are right. I should have followed the strategy and Candle Stick charts and listened to the markets (RFE) 50c resistance and trend and sold! Instead I wanted to see what would happen, and this happened.

If I had sold at 49-50, rebought at 40, I could have increased my holdings substantially and have larger profits in the long haul, but alas no, im a moron....


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## alexc2005 (5 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> You are right. I should have followed the strategy and Candle Stick charts and listened to the markets (RFE) 50c resistance and trend and sold! Instead I wanted to see what would happen, and this happened.
> 
> If I had sold at 49-50, rebought at 40, I could have increased my holdings substantially and have larger profits in the long haul, but alas no, im a moron....




You're not a moron. You're Human.

I could have sold at a profit for my portfolio. But i didn't and now im down 12% on it.

**** happens. But long term i'm hoping it will be ok. If not i might start averaging down, I'm over it for today though, lets see what monday brings.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> You're not a moron. You're Human.
> 
> I could have sold at a profit for my portfolio. But i didn't and now im down 12% on it.
> 
> **** happens. But long term i'm hoping it will be ok. If not i might start averaging down, I'm over it for today though, lets see what monday brings.





Curious - what are you in mate?


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## tech/a (5 August 2011)

One comment.

OUCH!


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## alexc2005 (5 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Curious - what are you in mate?




ANZ, AUT, AXT (silly idea), BKP, CGM (the "cheap" buy yesterday), CNX, GGP, GOA, HOG (cheap buy today), JPR, OZL, PEN, PNA, SEA, TXN.

The main ones killing me are ANZ and OZL.

I can't believe how much ANZ has fallen from my "cheap" buy at $22. Fail.

OZL i was going to sell last week at $14:40, now its $12:17. I Need to learn to take profits and get out when i have these thoughts. 

Have had these thoughts alot but always said "oh lets wait and see what happens"

I'm a rookie, and i'm learning. This is just accelerating the learning process.


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## disarray (5 August 2011)

2007 taught me the value of a stop loss. don't take a trade without one. ever.


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## RexBudman (5 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> ANZ, AUT, AXT (silly idea), BKP, CGM (the "cheap" buy yesterday), CNX, GGP, GOA, HOG (cheap buy today), JPR, OZL, PEN, PNA, SEA, TXN.
> 
> The main ones killing me are ANZ and OZL.
> 
> ...





I started buying RFE and topped it up through-out the course of a couple of months and saw 0.37 jump to 0.40 jump to 0.505 - I just don;t have enough money to buy into the stocks that you have bought into. You must have a nice fat amount sitting in equities 

I am going to check out your stocks tonight and do some research. Todays crash is a huge shame because it puts people like me in the lurch... People like me being newbie uneducated fellows with more money than time...


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## samanne1 (5 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> You're not a moron. You're Human.
> 
> I could have sold at a profit for my portfolio. But i didn't and now im down 12% on it.
> 
> **** happens. But long term i'm hoping it will be ok. If not i might start averaging down, I'm over it for today though, lets see what monday brings.




Agree - you are only a moron if you don't __learn__ from the experience.


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## explod (5 August 2011)

In my view it is not a day to trade at all.   The sun will come up tomorrow.

We are on the cusp of a lot of change and the market will be very volatile for some time.  If you are at all worried there is a good old adage "if in doubt, get out".

We are going to need ssentials.  Woolworths for example are down 2.3 percent, this is just panic and some common sense will come back to the good stocks soon.

If you cannot do anything, leave the computer and review it all after the close and also read back over what some of the more experienced posters are having to say this evening.

Its a nice day down here to have a walk down to the beach or go and buy your partner a nice bunch of flowers or go out to dinner.  Life will go on.


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## sammy84 (5 August 2011)

explod said:


> In my view it is not a day to trade at all.   The sun will come up tomorrow.
> 
> We are on the cusp of a lot of change and the market will be very volatile for some time.  If you are at all worried there is a good old adage "if in doubt, get out".
> 
> ...




Best post today.


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## skc (5 August 2011)

explod said:


> In my view it is not a day to trade at all.   The sun will come up tomorrow.
> 
> We are on the cusp of a lot of change and the market will be very volatile for some time.  If you are at all worried there is a good old adage "if in doubt, get out".
> 
> We are going to need ssentials.  Woolworths for example are down 2.3 percent, this is just panic and some common sense will come back to the good stocks soon.




Today is the PERFECT day to trade. So many short term opportunities...

(Wouldn't hold anything over night without protection though).


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## explod (5 August 2011)

skc said:


> Today is the PERFECT day to trade. So many short term opportunities...
> 
> (Wouldn't hold anything over night without protection though).




Of course but aimed more at the mainstream.   I am sure the one minute tick counters are having a ball.  And good forex traders, bingo.


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## tigerboi (5 August 2011)

looking at this makes me feel good & why i only buy one stock.

WPG @ $0.75 current sp around 85 -86c down from $1.06 a week ago

so still up 15%...massive bargin imo...hang in there...tb




alexc2005 said:


> ANZ, AUT, AXT (silly idea), BKP, CGM (the "cheap" buy yesterday), CNX, GGP, GOA, HOG (cheap buy today), JPR, OZL, PEN, PNA, SEA, TXN.
> 
> The main ones killing me are ANZ and OZL.
> 
> ...


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## theartglasshouse (5 August 2011)

The only annoying thing at the moment is  

A) Do I top up on the stocks that I already own
B) Do I put the limited money that I do have for shares at the moment into some other companies that I have been eyeing off
or
C) A little from column A and a little from column B 

I will wait till Monday and hope the blood bath continues so I can get them cheaper...


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## Tysonboss1 (5 August 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> The only annoying thing at the moment is
> 
> A) Do I top up on the stocks that I already own
> B) Do I put the limited money that I do have for shares at the moment into some other companies that I have been eyeing off
> ...




I can't give you advice, number one because I have no idea on your personal situation or the stocks you are talking about.

However in my personal situation, I am drip feeding funds into a basket of stocks I already own.


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> The only annoying thing at the moment is
> 
> A) Do I top up on the stocks that I already own
> B) Do I put the limited money that I do have for shares at the moment into some other companies that I have been eyeing off
> C) A little from column A and a little from column B



or
D) Buy a Kalashnikov and a pallet of baked beans. :


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

Question:

Why is it that people on forums always have boxes of cash available to "buy up bargains"


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## theartglasshouse (5 August 2011)

No question intended really...just musing to myself really as I have a decision to make before next week on which option I should choose

I wish it was boxes wayne! More like a matchbox with a few pennies...

Option D) - No, I only weigh 68kg so the power of Kalashnikov would knock me off my feet...although the baked beans might beef me a little...


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## skc (5 August 2011)

Like I said.. there is no bounce today. The futures just printed a new low...



wayneL said:


> Question:
> 
> Why is it that people on forums always have boxes of cash available to "buy up bargains"




I know! I keep my cash in a waterproof bag rather than a box. That way when it floods again in QLD I will simply float away with that lump of money.


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> Option D) - No, I only way 68kg so the power of Kalashnikov would knock me off my feet...although the baked beans might beef me a little...




I'm 68kg too... and probably 3kg overweight at that, but I wrastle with 500-700kg beasts about six times every workday (for an appropriate cash consideration ); I'm sure you could handle the AK... sheez they give them to their kids over in the Middle East.

Man up Arty!! 

:


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

skc said:


> I know! I keep my cash in a waterproof bag rather than a box. That way when it floods again in QLD I will simply float away with that lump of money.




My missus takes mine. Our mutual clients don't even bother paying me, they just give it to her. 

...and I still have to to pay the cheque when we go out to outrageously expensive Hawkes Bay vineyard restaurants!


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## kermit345 (5 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> I started buying RFE and topped it up through-out the course of a couple of months and saw 0.37 jump to 0.40 jump to 0.505 - I just don;t have enough money to buy into the stocks that you have bought into. You must have a nice fat amount sitting in equities
> 
> I am going to check out your stocks tonight and do some research. Todays crash is a huge shame because it puts people like me in the lurch... People like me being newbie uneducated fellows with more money than time...




Rex, your post scares me. You say you don't have enough money to buy into the stocks mentioned but say your out buying small caps?

I hope you realise that whether you buy 100 RIO shares for $72 a share ($7,200) or say 14,400 shares in company XYZ for $0.50 a share ($7,200) your still investing the same amount of money and a 10% gain on RIO will mean the same capital increase as a 10% gain in XYZ, no matter how many units you have.

It sounds like you believe because you have low capital u have to invest in lower priced shares to still maintain a relatively higher number of shares. Just want to make sure you realise that this is not the case and I hope you aren't putting yourself at higher risk by doing so.

On a personal note while the last 2 weeks have obviously been quite severe (particularly today) if you have at least something stashed in cash and the patience/ability to ride it out for now and put more capital in when it starts showing some resistance then there is no need to panic.

Try to sleep easy tonight and remember that while the worlds issues won't be gone overnight, next week or even most likely next month. You can rest assured that the goal of those involved will be to repair the mess that has been caused and eventually some form of normalisation is more than likely to return.

good luck to all, happy bargain hunting


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## skc (5 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I'm 68kg too... and probably 3kg overweight at that, *but I wrastle with 500-700kg beasts about six times every workday* (for an appropriate cash consideration ); I'm sure you could handle the AK... sheez they give them to their kids over in the Middle East.




That is not a nice thing to say about your missus even though she take all your money...


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

skc said:


> That is not a nice thing to say about your missus even though she take all your money...




Missus is 53kg and very much more formidable than the German bred pukes I have to deal with... but at least she cooks dinner and washes my clothes. 

...mind you, I'm a better cook!


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## LifeChoices (5 August 2011)

I've been investing/gambling with shares since 2004 and my portfolio has never really recovered since the GFC. I started reading the signs of bad things to come around May/June this year and began selling about 70% of my portfolio.

Today just confirmed my fears and I panicked and shed of 20% more - just leaving some shares in gold and silver.

Right now I don't feel too bad about it, kind of relieved. 

What I feel bad about is spending all day pressing refresh on commsec instead of going for a surf.


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> ...mind you, I'm a better cook!




And if there is a God, I pray to him/her that missus never reads that.


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## trading_rookie (5 August 2011)

But why is the ASX tanking more than the Asian, US, and European markets?? We're not gonna default, have less debt than they do and are still riding high on a commodities boom...doesn't make sense that our market would drop twice as much as what the others are?!?!?!

If markets are pricing in the global recession almost every economist is predicting is already upon us and will, for all intense and purposes be announced officially next year...again it appears we are still free-falling more than the others...or is this the Gecko's of Oz causing mass panic so they can rattle some cages and buy on the cheap?


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## wastedgolfer (5 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> What I feel bad about is spending all day pressing refresh on commsec instead of going for a surf.




lol I did that most of the day too, i felt that the low is yet to come so I sold all three of my shares today. I am only a newbie and felt although I was dissapointed with my loss I would rather see what happens over the weekend and buy later on.


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

trading_rookie said:


> But why is the ASX tanking more than the Asian, US, and European markets?? We're not gonna default, have less debt than they do and are still riding high on a commodities boom...doesn't make sense that our market would drop twice as much as what the others are?!?!?!
> 
> If markets are pricing in the global recession almost every economist is predicting is already upon us and will, for all intense and purposes be announced officially next year...again it appears we are still free-falling more than the others...or is this the Gecko's of Oz causing mass panic so they can rattle some cages and buy on the cheap?




There is more possible downside in Oz.


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## trading_rookie (5 August 2011)

> More possible downside in Oz.




Coming from where though? 

My thinking is the carbon tax and retail slump have also been priced in. 

We're more cautious than say the yanks who seem to be creating another IT bubble, whereas here there isn't that hysteria with recent and upcoming floats for IT stocks.

The AUD has taken a tumble this week...should we be manipulating it like the Swiss and Brasilians ;-) or a dollar back at 70-80c would be a good thing in terms of market stability and possible business recovery with more exports and tourism picking up?

What's puzzling is we have no confidence, yet one US fund manager reckons countries like Oz and Brasil is where one should be looking to due to small deficits and commodity booms. 

Just can't put a finger on it  'cause it crazy and doesn't make sense as to why we are so much more in the doldrums than the rest of 'em?

God help us if we have another natural disaster here or anywhere else in the world!


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## theartglasshouse (5 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I'm 68kg too... and probably 3kg overweight at that, but I wrastle with 500-700kg beasts about six times every workday (for an appropriate cash consideration ); I'm sure you could handle the AK... sheez they give them to their kids over in the Middle East.
> 
> Man up Arty!!
> 
> :




I seem to be manning up quite well through this storm, why the others are selling and running 

The FTSE is down again, so more carnage on Monday...


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## explod (5 August 2011)

Its always more about *sentiment* and it is flowing big time and now gaining *momentum*.


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## LifeChoices (5 August 2011)

trading_rookie said:


> Coming from where though?
> 
> My thinking is the carbon tax and retail slump have also been priced in.
> 
> ...




In the scheme of the world economy Australia is small fry. Most of the time that's a really good thing - sometimes, like now - we are swept away with all the other small fry in the world.

Lots of things are unfair.


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## wayneL (5 August 2011)

theartglasshouse said:


> I seem to be manning up quite well through this storm, why the others are selling and running
> 
> The FTSE is down again, so more carnage on Monday...




Sometimes real men cut and run 

The trick is to do it early enough.


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## trading_rookie (5 August 2011)

> In the scheme of the world economy Australia is small fry.





Agree. If it weren't for developing nations wanting our resources the s&p and xords would most likely still be hovering around the 2000 mark, with a currency to match. Remember that throw-away line "another day another 50c" ;-) 

Hence the point, if we are small fry then why such big losses? Surely not every global investor and hedge fund had their money in our markets and currency and then decided to pull out and cash in..or did they? ;-)


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## theartglasshouse (5 August 2011)

I'm enjoying the carnage though, I can get more bang for my 2 cents in the long run...

No point in selling now, would not be worth it in my opinion. Ride out the storm


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## LifeChoices (5 August 2011)

trading_rookie said:


> if we are small fry then why such big losses? Surely not every global investor and hedge fund had their money in our markets and currency and then decided to pull out and cash in..or did they? ;-)




It wasn't a big loss, I think during the GFC there was more than one daily loss of 5% - that's how we roll


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## tech/a (5 August 2011)

It's pretty clear few here trade with any real capital if at all.


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## Slipperz (5 August 2011)

The RBA has a bit to answer for IMHO. I'm speaking from a Sydneycentric perspective here. They can talk all the macroeconomic crap they like and say the mining boom this and that but the fact of the matter is there isn't a lot of mining activity in Australia's largest city or the others for that matter. Just over five months  of wealth destruction and ongoing failure of consumer confidence. Excessively high house prices and a continuously rising cost of living.

I don't know what it takes for them to realise this. The huge majority of Australians don't live in the Pilbara!!!

Every business I talk to is hurting, sale signs are everywhere, after hours the CBD in Sydney  empties out rapidly as the workers go home to save their cash and yet we are somehow relieved the RBA didn't increase rates at their last meeting.

Noone wants to spend money because it costs too much to borrow and it can't be made on the market for the past six months and the RBA says business as usual. 

I beg to differ.

And I really can't be arsed going on more about it now but the writing has been on the wall in 2011 and now humpty dumpty has fallen off  perhaps the reality might sink in to the uberbrains in Martin Place.


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## trading_rookie (5 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> It wasn't a big loss, I think during the GFC there was more than one daily loss of 5% - that's how we roll




So basically no one really knows why our market took such a big nose dive compared to the rest  

Anyway, time to leave the office and head home...and hope Monday doesn't come quick enough


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## theartglasshouse (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> It's pretty clear few here trade with any real capital if at all.




Forgive us...we are merely plebs Bill Gates...


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## LifeChoices (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> It's pretty clear few here trade with any real capital if at all.




Why do you say that?

Triangles seem to be yor forte, why not go to back to your XAO T/A forum and draw us yet another revision?


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## Billyb (5 August 2011)

I'm no expert, but I do have my take on how this could pan out. Looking at the All Ords in 2007, the index was trending very positively for a long long time before it all of a sudden came tumbling down from its all-time high. Sentiment was overly positive, everyone was in love with stocks, so when the bad news started pouring in, it was a recipe for disaster as all those bulls turned into bears almost at the flick of a switch.

 The difference this time is that we are not into all time highs, and we have a very extensive trading zone (..well sideways market) to the left which is caused by long term nervousness. Hence, assuming the stock market does get hit as hard as some are predicting, I reckon the damage this time round shouldn't be nearly as bad as the first dip. Most of the nervousness has already been priced into the market.

Fear not fellows - my two cents - I suppose no one knows what will happen but this is what I think.


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## IFocus (5 August 2011)

Just a general comment the if the US addresses their dept problem they will certainly slide into recession, US market fall 40% on average on recessions.

Still we will see how far we go markets can and do over shoot.


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## drsmith (5 August 2011)

On a scale that includes the GFC, there's no tangable panic on the Ted Spread,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND


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## nulla nulla (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> It's pretty clear few here trade with any real capital if at all.




Seems an unusualy sweeping statement for you t/a, 
When you say "trade" are you talking a specific instrument (spi, currency, options, asx) or just in general? 
When you say "here" do you mean the posters in this thread or on the ASF forum generally? 
What do you consider 'real capital" to be?

Just asking because I sometime wonder if the definitions of "trading" aren't sometimes applied in too limited a perspective in this forum from time to time.


----------



## Tyler Durden (5 August 2011)

I'm actually very surprised that no one knows the reason for the big sell-off. Even today's article in smh couldn't explain why, and papers usually come up with all sorts of reasons explaining market movement.

It's also funny, because they say "the market" knows this, "the market" knows that...but _we are_ the market, so then why don't any of us know the reasons for movement?


----------



## tech/a (5 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Seems an unusualy sweeping statement for you t/a,
> When you say "trade" are you talking a specific instrument (spi, currency, options, asx) or just in general?
> When you say "here" do you mean the posters in this thread or on the ASF forum generally?
> What do you consider 'real capital" to be?
> ...




In this thread.
200K +
Suggesting running ---trading it--a stock portfolio.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In this thread.
> 200K +
> Suggesting running ---trading it--a stock portfolio.




I'll be in.

gg


----------



## skc (5 August 2011)

IFocus said:


> Just a general comment the if the US addresses their dept problem they will certainly slide into recession, US market fall 40% on average on recessions.
> 
> Still we will see how far we go markets can and do over shoot.




The US "austerity measures" will mean nothing. They are cutting $45B this year in an economy that is worth $3,800B, or 0.12%... the impact is negligible. What it does mean, however, is that people can no longer count on further US debt funded stimulus.

Back in the GFC days, most people analysed with hindsight that we didn't have a great depression because of government stimulus. Now that tap is turned off before the US economy can stand on its own two feet... and hence we are running scared.



drsmith said:


> On a scale that includes the GFC, there's no tangable panic on the Ted Spread,
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND




The TED spread is intrabank. The last crisis was intrabank where people are worried about toxic assets on bank balance sheets and not knowing who will blow up next.

To measure the scale of the crisis now you need to look at the spread between German vs Italy/Spainish debt imo.



Tyler Durden said:


> I'm actually very surprised that no one knows the reason for the big sell-off. Even today's article in smh couldn't explain why, and papers usually come up with all sorts of reasons explaining market movement.
> 
> It's also funny, because they say "the market" knows this, "the market" knows that...but _we are_ the market, so then why don't any of us know the reasons for movement?




See above. The other thing you need to be aware of is that share prices have fallen from the recent high. What you don't know is whether we are cheap now, or if we were expensive back then.


----------



## drsmith (5 August 2011)

skc said:


> The TED spread is intrabank. The last crisis was intrabank where people are worried about toxic assets on bank balance sheets and not knowing who will blow up next.



A sovereign debt crisis wouldn't feed down to the banks ?

A question, not a criticism of the above viewpoint.


----------



## Julia (5 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Sometimes real men cut and run
> 
> The trick is to do it early enough.



Agree.  Real women do the same.




Tyler Durden said:


> I'm actually very surprised that no one knows the reason for the big sell-off. Even today's article in smh couldn't explain why, and papers usually come up with all sorts of reasons explaining market movement.
> 
> It's also funny, because they say "the market" knows this, "the market" knows that...but _we are_ the market, so then why don't any of us know the reasons for movement?



Tyler, have a read of Stephen Bartholomeusz's piece which explains the situation clearly.



> Facing up to a perfect economic horror
> Stephen Bartholomeusz
> Published 11:49 AM, 5 Aug 2011 Last update 11:19 AM, 5 Aug 2011
> 
> ...




I'd ask just one question of those who are relishing being able to 'grab bargains' in this storm:   What will have actually changed in the global situation on Monday, Tuesday, etc?   i.e. why will it be any safer to buy when nothing has changed?

In the GFC governments were able to prop up/buy out financial institutions and provide stimulus to economies.

Now they're pretty much broke.

Even Germany can't go on bailing out the other European nations without risking its own position.

So why would you anticipate a rapid return to postive sentiment?


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## Bazmate (5 August 2011)

Now that's a really good comment!




skc said:


> What you don't know is whether we are cheap now, or if we were expensive back then.




I dropped a couple of bucks today too, but not really unexpected... perhaps just un-hoped for.....

I wonder what will happen come Monday


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## IFocus (5 August 2011)

skc said:


> The US "austerity measures" will mean nothing. They are cutting $45B this year in an economy that is worth $3,800B, or 0.12%... the impact is negligible. What it does mean, however, is that people can no longer count on further US debt funded stimulus.




Problem for the US is to address the dept problem before the bond market makes judgment call the US must pay down its dept levels.

If they chose a glide path its means pretty much knocking off 1% growth (cutting government expenditure and raising taxes) that means recession (current growth well below 2%)








> The TED spread is intrabank. The last crisis was intrabank where people are worried about toxic assets on bank balance sheets and not knowing who will blow up next.
> 
> To measure the scale of the crisis now you need to look at the spread between German vs Italy/Spainish debt imo.




Again bond markets will decide the fate of the Italy / Spain etc, Italy at the moment is looking shaky...........

This has a long way to play out early days yet.

The threat on the world stage remains war rather than financial.


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## nulla nulla (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In this thread.
> 200K +
> Suggesting running ---trading it--a stock portfolio.




Thank you t/a, helps keep things in perspective.


----------



## Julia (5 August 2011)

This is an at times fiery exchange on "PM" (Radio National) this evening between Steve Keen and Chris Caton, summing up from their usually different viewpoints the current situation.

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3286793.htm


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## Tyler Durden (5 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Tyler, have a read of Stephen Bartholomeusz's piece which explains the situation clearly




Ok, that's a very good read. But now I ask, why now? Why didn't all this happen before the US debt ceiling was raised?


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## So_Cynical (5 August 2011)

This is the double dip we had to have!

At least that's one way of looking at it...all the great market pull backs have had a double dip and this is clearly the GFC double dip, how far we are into the dip is what's uncertain...i remember the pull back of May/June last year, this forum was full of double dip panic merchants..they were right about the dip just got the timing wrong by 14 or so months. 

Looking at the 3 year chart below we are clearly well above the GFC bottom and only a couple of hundred points below Post GFC support, so all in all its just not that bad....my portfolio is down around 12% from the recent highs and my open profits have fallen about 16% ~ what hasn't fallen are my closed trade profits  profits that ive taken from buying stocks that are falling and selling when they have risen.
~


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## Julia (5 August 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Ok, that's a very good read. But now I ask, why now? Why didn't all this happen before the US debt ceiling was raised?



 Tyler, if you have a think about it, you will probably be able to come up with some suggestions.  This is more useful to you than people 'telling you stuff'.

Look forward to seeing what you think.


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## skc (5 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> A sovereign debt crisis wouldn't feed down to the banks ?
> 
> A question, not a criticism of the above viewpoint.




Yes but I guess we are only at the start. And this time the starting point is at the sovereign level.


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## IFocus (5 August 2011)

skc said:


> Yes but I guess we are only at the start. And this time the starting point is at the sovereign level.




Unfortunately a large number of banks are holding government dept, its as safe as you know the government.......... the main problem with the GFC was no one knew who was going to fall over hence price of capital went through the roof.

That was solved by governments backing the banks (how did that work out for Ireland?)

Now it gets ugly as who will believe governments are solvent........


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## Julia (5 August 2011)

Tyler, here's a good summary of the history leading up to the present situation, and following on from IF's post above.

Also, google  "Moral Hazard".

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-last-plan-failed-so-whats-the-plan-20110805-1iemc.html


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## $20shoes (5 August 2011)

A lot of these graphs cited from "Growth in a Time of Debt"
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

They illustrate that the ratio of debt to GDP growth takes a very dire turn for the USA when percentage wise we stay above 90% levels. OF course this is the crux: no GDP growth means they can't easily stimulate economic growth as a way of reducing their debt. Essentially, by reducing spending they are consequently forcing their economic growth to shrink. If their economy shrinks ( which it is) this will in turn cause their debt levels to grow relative to their economy. 





this is really interesting - Gross External Debt as a % of GDP


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## Nero64 (6 August 2011)

Talk about Deja vu Sept 2008. The sell off after the Bailout package got passed. Then Lehman Brothers. What will it be this time. Germany saying hang on we can't bail out Greece, Italy or Spain because we are screwed ourselves 

I heard the super fund managers are only down -4% this month. I would be happy with that. :

I was shorting the AUD $ for about a month from 1.065 then lost trade after trade. Then took a position at 1.100. Then it went to 1.1080 and I decided to do a long trade after reading that some currency trader says there is little resistance to 1.140. This coincided with the high CPI and Westpac tipping a rate increase..lol. Then the RBA decision and in all this commotion I didn't have time to enter my previous short bias. Ahh the markets. I suppose it beats lottery tickets or the pokies?

That's the thing about the markets. You have the right ideas and you still get screwed. That's why I keep most of my money in the bank earning interest as a hedge. 

If you have 20 years to wait yeah sure buy a Bluechip like BHP and CBA and sit it out. 

To the original poster. You were crazy to buy RFE. It was riding on the coattails of ESG which was offered a takeover by STO. The excitement has gone for now. RFE will fall hard but might rise again but I would put my money on BOW before anything else in that sector. But hey I own DTE (The old AOE spin off) so your not the only one to get kicked in the face and then get your eyes poked out and then be spat on.


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## trading_rookie (6 August 2011)

> I'm actually very surprised that no one knows the reason for the big sell-off. Even today's article in smh couldn't explain why, and papers usually come up with all sorts of reasons explaining market movement.




Ditto...but, if you caught the ANZ Chief economist Warren Hogan on Lateline tonight, he said the following which kinda sheds some light...

_
Well, the Australian financial markets are heavily influenced by what's going on in Europe and America, they always will be priced off the back of those markets. But our economy is all linked into Asia and so far those economies are doing very, very well. 
_
Even though it sheds light...it still defies logic! If Italy defaults then our markets will tumble more, even though trade with them is insignificant (what? luxury items such as cars and fashion from their end) and I'm pretty sure none of our major banks have any exposure to them or any other EU country. Nope, it's just the fact that *we're heavily influenced*...our linked economy to Asia...well that's insignificant!!!

Of further interest were his comments re: those two 'influential' continents...
_
But look, you know, I think if this is going to get worse, if we're going to see the US move into recession, it's actually going to be because of problems in Europe. Europe is where the financial fragility is. The Americans have done a lot in the last two years to get their economy back in shape, to fix up bank balance sheets, to fix up the household balance sheet. 

It's the Europeans where they haven't fixed up their banks, and of course their governments are in huge trouble, that this will get worse. And so we've got to watch that European situation closely. _


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 August 2011)

trading_rookie said:


> ANZ Chief economist Warren Hogan on Lateline tonight, he said the following which kinda sheds some light...<snip> The Americans have done a lot in the last two years to get their economy back in shape, *to fix up bank balance sheets, to fix up the household balance sheet.* <snip>[/i]




Not too sure about that. Consider this damning data from BofA last night... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ng-from-fannie-mae-for-mortgage-buybacks.html



> *BofA Says Loan Repurchase Costs May Exceed Previous Forecast*
> 
> Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the lender that announced a $3 billion settlement with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this year, told investors that elevated claims from the firms may cost more than previously forecast.
> 
> *New demands for refunds on soured loans from the two government-sponsored enterprises are coming “in numbers that were not expected based on historical experience,” the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said yesterday in its quarterly filing. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are being “more rigid” in resolving demands, said the bank, the worst performer today in the Dow Jones Industrial Average*.






> Bank of America declined 2.4 percent to $8.62 at 10:55 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, extending yesterday’s 7.4 percent plunge. *The company has dropped 35 percent this year through yesterday, dogged by concerns that mortgage expenses and a stagnating U.S. economy will crimp profit and force Bank of America to bolster its capital by selling new shares*.
> 
> *Fannie Mae faces its own pressures, with the mortgage finance company reporting a $2.9 billion second-quarter loss today and asking for another $5.1 billion in federal aid. The firm, which was seized by the government in 2008 to save it from insolvency, has drawn $104.8 billion in aid from the U.S. Treasury. *






> *Bank of America warned investors yesterday that if it fails to get court approval on the deal, the $14 billion in second- quarter provisions for repurchase costs from institutional investors “could be insufficient” and its costs could balloon*. The firm already expects $5 billion in additional costs from repurchase demands from non-GSE mortgage buyers.
> 
> The “ultimate resolution” of the firm’s housing-market liabilities *“could have a material adverse effect on our cash flows, financial condition and results of operations,” *the bank said.




Sounds a tad ominous for my liking. The continuing, expanding profligacy of the likes of BofA, Fanny Mae & Freddie Mac in chewing up US taxpayer dollars is astounding.


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## doctorj (6 August 2011)

trading_rookie said:


> Even though it sheds light...it still defies logic!



For all the might and power of the Australian economy, it accounts for less than 1% of Global GDP.  The EU accounts for around 26% of global GDP and the US around 23%.

If people in the US and Europe don't shop as much in Walmart and Asda and they stop buying their big screen TVs etc, Japan and China stop buying Australia's rocks.  Everything is interconnected and with only 22mm people, Australia is particularly dependant on the health of the global economy.


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## notting (6 August 2011)

A good level headed fundamental explanation.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/04/the-real-reason-why-stocks-are-tanking/?iid=Popular


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## Tyler Durden (6 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Tyler, here's a good summary of the history leading up to the present situation, and following on from IF's post above.
> 
> Also, google  "Moral Hazard".
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-last-plan-failed-so-whats-the-plan-20110805-1iemc.html




Thanks for the article. The problem I find with articles similar to these is that a lot of it is based on hindsight, a bit like "I told you so" and "I knew this was coming because of x, y and z".


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## nulla nulla (6 August 2011)

doctorj said:


> For all the might and power of the Australian economy, it accounts for less than 1% of Global GDP.  The EU accounts for around 26% of global GDP and the US around 23%.
> 
> If people in the US and Europe don't shop as much in Walmart and Asda and they stop buying their big screen TVs etc, Japan and China stop buying Australia's rocks.  Everything is interconnected and with only 22mm people, Australia is particularly dependant on the health of the global economy.




China and India aren't just buying our rocks so they can export it back to us. They are emerging nations trying to cater for domestic demand and our rocks are going into buildings, infrastructure and power generation. Fortunately we have what is needed whether their economies tighten or otherwise.


----------



## Julia (6 August 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Thanks for the article. The problem I find with articles similar to these is that a lot of it is based on hindsight, a bit like "I told you so" and "I knew this was coming because of x, y and z".



 But everything that is said in that article was apparent as it was happening, not just after it happened.  That's the point I'm trying to make.  i.e. if you were following what was happening in Europe and in the US since the start of the GFC you'd have understood that the constant replacing of the bandaids would eventually expose the gaping wound.


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## Smurf1976 (6 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> China and India aren't just buying our rocks so they can export it back to us. They are emerging nations trying to cater for domestic demand and our rocks are going into buildings, infrastructure and power generation. Fortunately we have what is needed whether their economies tighten or otherwise.



Markets are made at the margin.

If demand drops, say, 10% then (1) volume of rocks needed will drop 10% and (2) price per rock will drop far more than 10%.

It's entirely plausible that we see a 5 - 10% reduction in export volumes for iron ore, coal etc and a 50% drop in price. If that happens then Australia has a problem.

Note what happened with oil in 2008. Demand dropped less than 5%. Price plunged almost 80% from high to low and as of 2011 still hadn't reached previous highs. And that's oil - a commodity somewhat more scarce than coal or iron ore.


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## Smurf1976 (6 August 2011)

Julia said:


> But everything that is said in that article was apparent as it was happening, not just after it happened.  That's the point I'm trying to make.  i.e. if you were following what was happening in Europe and in the US since the start of the GFC you'd have understood that the constant replacing of the bandaids would eventually expose the gaping wound.



Agreed and you could go back further than that. 

I remember having discussions about the future of General Motors circa 2002 as it seemed rather obvious (to me at least) back then that they were doomed and a few financial commentators had made the same observation. 6 years later the inevitable happened and GM, which I now call Government Motors since that's basically what it became, ran into serious trouble.

All this stuff is a bit like seeing someone fairly young and with little driving experience driving a performance car, accelerating as fast as they can the moment the light turns green and weaving in and out of traffic for no real reason. Anyone with a reasonable amount of driving experience knows the likely outcome of that one, the only questions being when, where and with what consequences. That there will be a crash is virtually guaranteed. It's the same with out of control economics - it ends in disaster at some point...


----------



## Intrinsic Value (6 August 2011)

It is not like this was unpredictable.

What happened yesterday has been on the cards for quite a while.

The debt thing has been hanging around like a millstone for the last couple of years. 

And it is probably going to get a little worse yet.

I have heard many fund managers saying how they have most of the clients funds in cash so they were aware what was likely to happen and are now poised to reap the benefits.

The old cliche is true thou you should be buying when everyone is selling but make sure what you are buying is quality business with strong balance, prospects etc


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 August 2011)

Intrinsic Value said:


> It is not like this was unpredictable.
> 
> What happened yesterday has been on the cards for quite a while.
> 
> The debt thing has been hanging around like a millstone for the last couple of years.



A credit rating downgrade surprised me. Apparently (ABC news) the downgrading could been avoided had they acted earlier on raising the debt level.



> The old cliche is true thou you should be buying when everyone is selling but make sure what you are buying is quality business with strong balance, prospects etc



Yes but when to buy the quality companies is the tricky bit. Hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel right now.


----------



## Intrinsic Value (6 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> A credit rating downgrade surprised me. Apparently (ABC news) the downgrading could been avoided had they acted earlier on raising the debt level.
> 
> Yes but when to buy the quality companies is the tricky bit. Hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel right now.




Very hard to pick the absolute bottom. 

Plenty out there right now screaming value, value , value.

You don't have to empty the til. 

Alternatively wait until you see the first signs of upward movement.


----------



## LifeChoices (6 August 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Thanks for the article. The problem I find with articles similar to these is that a lot of it is based on hindsight, a bit like "I told you so" and "I knew this was coming because of x, y and z".




You may want to watch Inside Job. 

Anyone who hasn't seen it should watch this well made documentary about the GFC.


----------



## sails (6 August 2011)

Intrinsic Value said:


> Very hard to pick the absolute bottom.
> 
> Plenty out there right now screaming value, value , value.
> 
> ...





In my experience, when they are screaming "value", the bottom is usually not in.

However, when there is absolute despair, the media are alarmingly reporting there is more down to go, most on the forums are negative AND it is emotionally very difficult to click the BUY button - then there is a better chance the bottom is in.  But it does take practice to get the feel of it...


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 August 2011)

sails said:


> However, when there is absolute despair, the media are alarmingly reporting there is more down to go, most on the forums are negative ...



 These three things are happening now so maybe the worst is over. When television commentators are talking up a further significant correction then I am suspicious. I don't particularly like to be feared into selling.


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## tech/a (6 August 2011)

With the US losing it's AAA rating and interest rates on the move for housing cars cards and anything else they can get their hands on.
We are 
NO WHERE NEAR the bottom.

If your not short you should be completely out of the market.

BOTH EUROPE AND THE US are in massive trouble.

DON'T underestimate the significance of the current World economics.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 August 2011)

sails said:


> In my experience, when they are screaming "value", the bottom is usually not in.
> 
> However, when there is absolute despair, the media are alarmingly reporting there is more down to go, most on the forums are negative AND it is emotionally very difficult to click the BUY button - then there is a better chance the bottom is in.  But it does take practice to get the feel of it...




Yes, as painful as it was for some I don't think we are anywhere near _the_ bottom. Just too many people still think there are bargains to be had.

I sold sold my complete portfolio several months ago and still sitting in cash getting 6% at call, just patiently waiting for the right time, which could be months yet - I'm talking real bargains like CBA less than $20 etc. 

I have found that it's the quality of trade not the quantity so you/we must resist the urge to be part of the game and learn patience.

In the meantime, leveraged shorting of the rallies does it for me, and only using a fraction of my funds to play with.


----------



## notting (6 August 2011)

What do ya reckon 2000 for the Asx 200?
Name your low.
I know we don't really have a clue,but its fun.


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2011)

notting said:


> What do ya reckon 2000 for the Asx 200?
> Name your low.
> I know we don't really have a clue,but its fun.




So you're relatively optimistic?

I'll say 700.... just to enrage the bulls.


----------



## cynic (6 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> So you're relatively optimistic?
> 
> I'll say 700.... just to enrage the bulls.




I'm normally more comfortable with bearish strategies in the sharemarket, but if it does go below 1000 (which seems quite conceivable) then I might be willing to consider donning horns and hooves since shorting opportunities tend to diminish as markets approach zero.


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## LifeChoices (6 August 2011)

notting said:


> What do ya reckon 2000 for the Asx 200?
> Name your low.
> I know we don't really have a clue,but its fun.




I think 3,800. Maybe start a poll on another thread?

ie: At what point will the ASX200 bottom out during GFC II

It has already - above 4100
3800 -> 4099
3600 ->3799
3400 -> 3599
3200 -> 3399
3000 -> 1499
below 3000


----------



## Julia (6 August 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> All this stuff is a bit like seeing someone fairly young and with little driving experience driving a performance car, accelerating as fast as they can the moment the light turns green and weaving in and out of traffic for no real reason. Anyone with a reasonable amount of driving experience knows the likely outcome of that one, the only questions being when, where and with what consequences. That there will be a crash is virtually guaranteed. It's the same with out of control economics - it ends in disaster at some point...



Good and very apt analogy.



Intrinsic Value said:


> Alternatively wait until you see the first signs of upward movement.



I wouldn't be touching anything until this happens, and not just the first signs.



tech/a said:


> DON'T underestimate the significance of the current World economics.



This is, I think, what many who are getting ecstatic about 'great value' are failing to take into account.
In GFC I, governments could bail out financial institutions etc., but now it's governments that are at the end of the road.   Hard to see a quick solution to this.


----------



## alexc2005 (6 August 2011)

Hmm, i have to say. I was planning on riding it out and had decided not to sell off all my shares at my current losses. 

But this thread is making me think otherwise. 

I still have some in the green, so probably could be worse. But then again, the red far outweigh the green.

Hard to know what the right decision is..

Monday will be an interesting day indeed.


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## LifeChoices (6 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Hard to know what the right decision is..
> 
> Monday will be an interesting day indeed.




Do some index finger exercises tonight and Sunday, stretch it forwards and backwards

Sounds like  you will be pressing the F5 key a few times on Monday. I did that on Friday, when I should have been surfing.

Good luck buddy.


----------



## Tyler Durden (6 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Hmm, i have to say. I was planning on riding it out and had decided not to sell off all my shares at my current losses.
> 
> But this thread is making me think otherwise.
> 
> ...




I am tempted to sell too, as I bought in MQG at $27.50 but now it looks like it's going to go below $20. However, I like to think that if I ended up in a coma tomorrow for 15 years, I'd wake up and this whole thing will be over


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> I am tempted to sell too, as I bought in MQG at $27.50 but now it looks like it's going to go below $20. However, I like to think that if I ended up in a coma tomorrow for 15 years, I'd wake up and this whole thing will be over




Yeah.... the XJO should just about climbed back up to about 5000 by then.


----------



## notting (7 August 2011)

> Hmm, i have to say. I was planning on riding it out and had decided not to sell off all my shares at my current losses.
> But this thread is making me think otherwise.




Just remember that if the market panic really goes off then some insane moments happen where some stocks will mementarily hit levels that will make you so sure it's a buy that you will feel like running into the streets after you have baught them and screaming for everyone to buy it now.  
This happened to me last time when NAB bottomed during GFC 1. 
I was down badly, I saw NAB do what it did.  I bucketed more than half my portfolio into it and leveraged it.  I was break even again within a couple of weeks in a market that was still badly down. 
I seriously wanted to run into the street and scream BUY NAB now!! I stopped myself from ringing people because I didn't want to have them scold me for leveraging in such a shocking market. NAB went down another % or so the next day then came up to nearly where I baught it, then went higher and higher. 
I sold out of NAB and diversified into the slower movers that went up from there even though I kept making the classic mistake of selling too early on pretty much everything as it rose because of the psychological canning I had taken for months leading up to it.
OSH was a similar opportunity.  Every broker in the country on one day was saying it was a clear buy when it tanked it was almost coming out of their mouths involuntarily.  
I did not know enough about it at that time but realised it was another bleedingly obvious one in retrospect having learnt more about it, had I known that stock like I new the Ausi banks at that time I would have gone for it too.
In full market meltdown panic, these things happen they are really obvious bargains that are pricing in total economic failure which just can't happen.
The machine can get "gummed up" as Buffy once said, but it can't totally fail.  It didn't fail during two world wars!!! It aint going to fail now!!!
We will always have banks, food and electricity etc.


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## Intrinsic Value (7 August 2011)

Well I am well cashed up and I was really waiting for the reporting season so it will be interesting to see what comes up in the next month or so.

I do agree things are likely to get worse before they get better.

But if i see great value and for me that means great companies trading at over 100 discount to IV then I will deploy some capital but keep some in reserve if there is further weakening.


----------



## skc (7 August 2011)

notting said:


> Just remember that if the market panic really goes off then some insane moments happen where some stocks will mementarily hit levels that will make you so sure it's a buy that you will feel like running into the streets after you have baught them and screaming for everyone to buy it now.




Can you nominate a price level now for when you will buy NAB this time around?

Yes we will still need banks, foods and electricity, but quite a few of these companies like MQG, BOQ, GFF etc are close to or below their GFC lows. And we will also need bricks (BLD?), clothes (PBG?), fuel (CTX?) etc. But necessity simply guarantees that the industry will continue to exist, it doesn't mean the investor will make money from it.


----------



## skc (7 August 2011)

Intrinsic Value said:


> Well I am well cashed up and I was really waiting for the reporting season so it will be interesting to see what comes up in the next month or so.
> 
> I do agree things are likely to get worse before they get better.
> 
> But if i see great value and for me that means great companies trading at over 100 discount to IV then I will deploy some capital but keep some in reserve if there is further weakening.




How does a share trading at over 100 discount to IV?


----------



## skc (7 August 2011)

> Peter Barnes “Is there a risk that the United States could lose its AAA credit rating? Yes or no?”
> 
> Geithner’s response: “No risk of that.”
> 
> ...




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-j...ould-lose-its-aaa-rating-tim-geithner-no-risk


----------



## alexc2005 (7 August 2011)

So what are peoples predictions for monday?

On a positive note the unemployment rate has dropped and the job creations has exceeded predictions.

On a negative note, the credit has been derated to AA+..

Friday was also a decent day for the US. 

Maybe a rally on monday?


----------



## sails (7 August 2011)

Alex, no predictions from me, but we can always expect bear market rallies.  These can often be quite dramatic and people new to the stock market will buy because they don't want to miss out on getting the best price they can.

These bounces are often appropriately called "dead cat bounces"... 

However, eventually the market does turn up again.  Knowing the difference between a dead cat bounce and a low that will go no further takes a bit of experience with a bit of guess work thrown in.


----------



## notting (7 August 2011)

> Can you nominate a price level now for when you will buy NAB this time around?



SKC.  I would not nominate a level for NAB at this stage for a number of reasons.  First it's highly unlikely to be the one that becomes an absolute certainty twice round.  There were plenty of other conditions around that helped it become obvious.  Like the fact it had underperformed the other banks for years  and was relativly cheap to start with due to some really dumb things they had done.

Also I had identified the bottom of GFC 1 market crash, not the actualy price on the market but the event.  The event was that everything was just crazy no one new what institution was going to be the next Lemon Bro.  After some time the US government stepped in and baught half of Citi group.  I immediatly thought That's it!  That's certainty as certain can be in markets. Which is enough for markets!  Of course Citi tanked and all the commentators complained but it was certain that Citi was not going to be the next lemon.  So there was a foundation where as before there was not!

The market bottomed in numbers about 2 weeks later.  This is all from memory so may not be 100% accurate.  NAB behaved ultra panicy just after that, I think and that was when it was just so clear to me.  All the commentry never mentioned the Citi was a certainty even though all the share holders had been liquidated.  
It's not a number it's insane movement relative to certain conditions.
A couple of weeks later, the weekend addition of the Fin Review had this retarded article about super annuation on the front page. The preceding week the mareket had moved up a little, I was seriously expecting there to be a massive picture of a Bull on the front page!! Saying 'The Bull is Back.'  I was shocked that it wasn't.  There was just this lame article on Super.
I know a lot more candidates that are not going to go bankrupt due to the current shenanigans, I have no idea what the price will be, when it will be, or what conditions will present at that time.  But I am almost certain that there will be opportunities like that if the panic get's up enough.  What we need to see is total lack of confidence in anything financial like before.
Companies have much better balance sheets now so they will be able to remain solvent etc for much longer.
Countries are in the same position that they were in during the GFC insolvent, with the ability to print money!! It's just that they are the center of attention now not Lehmons.
I still have a trading plan that I am sticking to that anticipated the possibility of this second collapse, but part of that plan is that when you see something that is so stupidly obvious and panic driven then you can jump all over it.  
Get back to your plan after that!
I just hope the moment comes in such an obvious way again.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> So what are peoples predictions for monday?
> 
> On a positive note the unemployment rate has dropped and the job creations has exceeded predictions.
> 
> ...



I am thinking the market has sold on the rumour (downgrading) and after experiencing the 4% drop there is a bounce in order at some stage. Nothing goes down in a straight line as nothing goes up in a straight line. Optimists please start your engines.


----------



## tech/a (7 August 2011)

So down grade announced all good in the USA 
Problems solved.

NOTHING is being done to solve USA or EUROPEAN debt.


----------



## notting (7 August 2011)

Of course I have absolutly no idea.
People could have had a look at some stocks over the weekend and thought Gee there are some bargains around compaired to last week, so they buy in to some falls  falling in the morning which may look relativly tame.
Then the US futures come into play which are usually total screw balls on our Monday for some reason and do Totally unreliable things.
China will show a bit of strength because they are *%100 convinced* that they are at war with everyone and everyone is at war with them because that is just the way the world is so they will see the US downgrade as a big picture battle victory for them in the big war and react positivly. The Chinese think that to think anyother way is totally stupid and dangerous making you an unacceptable risk to the Chinese Communist Party.
Japan will probably tank more taking us with it.
That's my bed time speculation.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> So down grade announced all good in the USA
> Problems solved.
> 
> NOTHING is being done to solve USA or EUROPEAN debt.



This debt has been around the USA neck for a long time yet they still managed a solid bull run 2003 to 2008 and a decent bounce from the abyss afterwards. Agree the longer term outlook isn't rosy. That is the reality.


----------



## tech/a (7 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> This debt has been around the USA neck for a long time yet they still managed a solid bull run 2003 to 2008 and a decent bounce from the abyss afterwards. Agree the longer term outlook isn't rosy. That is the reality.




Yes true but NOW congress only JUST got refinance through agian BUT hasn't fooled the economic world.

There will be bullish runs and bet your life the large instos will be un winding positions at every opportunity.

Until clear evidence of debt reduction is seen in both USA and EUROPE new highs are just an optimistic dream.

No one seems to have an answer to debt.
USA
GREECE
SPAIN
ITALY
Or anyone else reducing debt.


----------



## G-Zilla (7 August 2011)

Here is an interested analysis from Faber - http://www.bloomberg.com/video/73551380/


----------



## Muschu (7 August 2011)

Interesting analyses and views over where the economy may be heading over  lengthier time frames.

Others are reminding all and sundry how they got it right -- bit unnecessary imo.

Has anyone specifically indicated what they think will happen at tomorrow's open, during the day and by the end of the week?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Has anyone specifically indicated what they think will happen at tomorrow's open, during the day and by the end of the week?



Suspiciously enough the DJIA Cash is up 53 points from the close of 11444 at 11485 while my short stop was (moved out just now) at 11484.  Got a feeling brokers want some stops tripped before descent.

I know the thieves well.


----------



## Intrinsic Value (7 August 2011)

I am not sure that the downgrade means that much considering that the other ratings agencies have not downgraded the US and further look at the record of the Standard & Poors in the GFC1 they got it completely wrong. What sort of judge are they anyway.

For me the US is not the biggest problem out there as of course they can print their way out of this crisis if it comes down to it.

Europe is where the real trouble is and that is where our main focus should be going forward.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 August 2011)

This is not about debt, it's about corruption which has caused debt.  Fortunately Australia ranks fairly low on a world scale, in terms of corruption.  

My prediction: XAO roughly sideways until next year; other world markets to get smashed.  2012 Chinese corruption will be uncovered in big business and government, and another Tianenmen Square will ensue, this one much more bloody.  Government overthrown and democratic rule instated.  This will mark the bottom of the world depression.  

Cheery huh?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Until clear evidence of debt reduction is seen in both USA and EUROPE new highs are just an optimistic dream.



Yes but the markets have had their significant drop already so don't be SURPRISED if there is a rally from here.


----------



## tech/a (7 August 2011)

Wouldnt surprise
But if a lower low isn't made in a couple of weeks
I'll be very surprised


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Wouldnt surprise
> But if a lower low isn't made in a couple of weeks
> I'll be very surprised



Well this view is certainly optimistic and it aint a forum post. 







> Wall Street has never been more sure that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rally in 2011, even after speculation the U.S. economy is heading for a recession prompted the biggest plunge since the bull market began.
> 
> Chief strategists at 13 banks from Barclays Plc (BARC) to UBS AG (UBSN) see the benchmark measure of American equity surging 17 percent through Dec. 31, the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Their projection that the index will reach 1,401 hasn’t budged in four weeks, while mounting concern U.S. growth is slowing drove the S&P 500 down 11 percent since July 22, including yesterday’s 4.8 percent tumble.


----------



## Muschu (7 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Well this view is certainly optimistic and it aint a forum post.




Interesting article - thanks


----------



## cynic (7 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Well this view is certainly optimistic and it aint a forum post.




Phew! That's a relief! It sounds like everything is going to be A OK then! We know we can rely on those American Banks to know which way things are headed, can't we? 

After all those banks proved their superior financial/economic mettle when they wrote up all those wonderfully sustainable loans (sub prime etc.) during the past couple of decades. So we can definitely count on them to know what the future holds, right?!


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

cynic said:


> Phew! That's a relief! It sounds like everything is going to be A OK then! We know we can rely on those American Banks to know which way things are headed, can't we?



 Time will tell and I will mark this post for the future. In my experience it isn't what the masses think that happens. In other words the masses follow and not lead.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Time will tell and I will mark this post for the future. In my experience it isn't what the masses think that happens. In other words the masses follow and not lead.




E=MC2.

gg


----------



## Kauri (7 August 2011)

Have I missed something?

  Cheers
.... Kauri


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> Have I missed something?
> 
> Cheers
> .... Kauri



 Yeah. The AUD/USD run from 60 c to 110 c.


----------



## Kauri (7 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yeah. The AUD/USD run from 60 c to 110 c.




  Cheap red, it will do it everytime. 

Cheers
....... Kauri


----------



## barney (7 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> Have I missed something?
> 
> Cheers
> .... Kauri







Lazarus has returned ... lol

a) Enjoyed your posts previously
b) I have improved my trading substantially in your absence 
c) Are you back for long 

Welcome back.


----------



## Muschu (7 August 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> E=MC2.
> 
> gg




Magnificent contribution which speaks for itself.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (7 August 2011)

Man oh man - what a week to be away for! I'm a bit overwhelmed by the good cheap stocks to buy.

Is anyone else thinking that the potential for another recession means oil and gas are now a bad bet?

Apart from that, does anyone give weight to the theory that last week was a result of some sort of leakage/corruption between S&P and hedge-funds who got wind of the US downgrade before it happened?

Could the downgrade possibly be priced in, or will the market dive again on open tomorrow?


----------



## wayneL (7 August 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Man oh man - what a week to be away for! I'm a bit overwhelmed by the good cheap stocks to buy.
> 
> Is anyone else thinking that the potential for another recession means oil and gas are now a bad bet?
> 
> ...




We shall see.

Define "cheap".


----------



## Julia (7 August 2011)

cynic said:


> Phew! That's a relief! It sounds like everything is going to be A OK then! We know we can rely on those American Banks to know which way things are headed, can't we?
> 
> After all those banks proved their superior financial/economic mettle when they wrote up all those wonderfully sustainable loans (sub prime etc.) during the past couple of decades. So we can definitely count on them to know what the future holds, right?!



If ever sarcasm was going to be totally justified, it's in this post. Completely agree, and ditto anything from the ratings agencies.


----------



## sails (7 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> Have I missed something?
> 
> Cheers
> .... Kauri




Welcome back Kauri...


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

It seems noone is willing to make any predictions...

I have a feeling that its going to crash further.

But there is a rally in sight. Just a matter of when.

I might wait for this rally, and then sell off some of my more sensetive shares..

Hmmmm, this is a time for some smart trading. Shame I'm not yet a smart trader.

Need a mentor haha


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> It seems noone is willing to make any predictions...
> 
> I have a feeling that its going to crash further.
> 
> ...



Gee whiz matey I am holding thousands in losses at the moment which I will have to take today but I asked myself this question. Would I buy any more stocks in the now. Simply, I will not. Went through the last market correction and am gonna watch from the sidelines this time. 

I notice there are people going in to buy the open of the big caps this morning.


----------



## captain black (8 August 2011)

Dow futures just opened around 2% lower. May give an indication where Asian markets might start the day.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 August 2011)

Yeah what a rout. More than I anticipated but on the right side for once.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Define "cheap".




Cheap_er_ than before the falls perhaps? It could well be said that the profits of _some_ companies will be unaffected by the recent dramas and even a potential recession, yet they were still downsold.



alexc2005 said:


> But there is a rally in sight. Just a matter of when.




QE3?

The next few weeks could well be extremely eventful depending how the situation unfolds in Europe. We could even see a breakup of the EMU!

It may well be a good idea to hold onto cash until they figure out what they are going to do with all their debt (at least in the short-term), that's my prediction


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Gee whiz matey I am holding thousands in losses at the moment which I will have to take today but I asked myself this question. Would I buy any more stocks in the now. Simply, I will not. Went through the last market correction and am gonna watch from the sidelines this time.
> 
> I notice there are people going in to buy the open of the big caps this morning.




Yeah, I started my portfolio in about april, So sadly i have thousands in losses at the moment. BUT, haven't taken any profits yet.

EDIT: sorry that wasn't very clear. I meant that i havent completed any trades and therefore am purely experiencing losses, not simply cancelling of previous profits.

So you are going to sell off today and take your losses then?

I'm still undecided. Might wait till closer to open and see what the preopens are doing.


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

Israel stock market circuit breakers suspended all trading on open, then crashed 6% at the close yesterday after the downgrade. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...january-lead-gulf-drop-on-u-s-rating-cut.html

Most other ME markets (apart from Saudi Arabia's which mysteriously climbed a little) also dived 2-5%. 

Aww, just a blip?



PS - Damn NZX must be getting hammered by millions of curious minds.... hardly responding for me ATM...

finally - NZX 10 is DOWN 3% atm (10.30am NZ time).


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

Israel stock market circuit breakers suspended all trading on open, then crashed 6% at the close yesterday after the downgrade. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...january-lead-gulf-drop-on-u-s-rating-cut.html

Most other ME markets (apart from Saudi Arabia's which mysteriously climbed a little) also dived 2-5%. 

Aww, just a blip?



PS - Damn NZX must be getting hammered by millions of curious minds.... hardly responding for me ATM...

finally - NZX 10 is DOWN 3% atm (10.30am NZ time).

PPS - Westpac NZ DOWN 4.5% at 10.40am NZ time


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Y
> So you are going to sell off today and take your losses then?



Yes, aiming for my index shorts to cover the stock losses.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes, aiming for my index shorts to cover the stock losses.




Hmm, looking at opens at the moment.

Alot of mine will open in the red, but not hugely.

Some have no open pricing just yet.

Fuuuuuck this is hard.

Ride the wave or bail out. hmmm


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Hmm, looking at opens at the moment.
> 
> Alot of mine will open in the red, but not hugely.
> 
> ...




Careful. ASX might suffer v.slow performance in opening hour due to massive Net traffic (as has NZX this morning). Could be tricky for insta-trading!

Just saw NZX All heading towards *-3.5%*

Good luck...


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Careful. ASX might suffer v.slow performance in opening hour due to massive Net traffic (as has NZX this morning). Could be tricky for insta-trading!
> 
> Just saw NZX All heading towards *-3.5%*
> 
> Good luck...




Do you mean be careful as in, my sells might not get executed? or?

I may just hold on and top up on my favorites.. ANZ will undoubtedly go back up and AUT is solid.

Just a matter of sell now and by back in lower, or just wait. 

So hard for me to take a loss, stupid mentality for the sharemarket though.


----------



## Liar's Poker (8 August 2011)

Unfortunately, the markets don't seem to care that I'm holidays.

1:15am Monday morning in Paris and I'm sitting waiting for the bell.

The Champagne I had for dinner should make this roller coaster all the more interesting...

-Liar-


----------



## Liar's Poker (8 August 2011)

The indicative price on STW (ASX 200 ETF) is showing an opening of 1.8% down.

If you can't reach the seat in front of you, put your head on your knees and hold your feet firmly on the floor to keep them from moving forward...


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> *Do you mean be careful as in, my sells might not get executed?* or?
> 
> I may just hold on and top up on my favorites.. ANZ will undoubtedly go back up and AUT is solid.
> 
> ...






> The NZX's website struggled to cope with demand as market watchers worldwide looked to New Zealand's sharemarket - the first to open this week.
> 
> *The site was unavailable at times this morning, leaving market watchers in the dark about share prices in one of the most anticipated trading days of the year. *
> 
> ...



http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/5404910/NZ-market-tumbles-in-wake-of-US-credit-downgrade


----------



## tminus (8 August 2011)

A noob question: is it possible to short the ASX at 10.01am to catch part of the fall, or is 10.01 too late as there would be a back log of stop sells to process.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Good luck everybody


----------



## RexBudman (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Good luck everybody




Very best of luck to all.

I have moved onto the gold mining sector and left oil for the time being.

I see that MET seems to be classed as under-valued so I hope some profit making can occur today.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Open wasn't as bad as i thought.

Watching, waiting. 

Wonder what the rest of the day will hold


----------



## RexBudman (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Open wasn't as bad as i thought.
> 
> Watching, waiting.
> 
> Wonder what the rest of the day will hold




I'm trying to snag small bargains but don't seem to be in touch with the high volatilty markets to ascertain minor profits...


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

MQG  is a good one to whatch for me when assessing general sentiment of ASX. 
Very intesting that it is showing a bit of strength compaired to how it has been trading in the last couple of months!
This is obviously an extremely short term assesment and Monday morning is often strong due to buyers coming in at the start of a new week after a week of major falls.
Interesting to see what it does this afternoon!
I'm nibbling at things.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Yeah, i guess what i should be doing is riding the current volatility.

But to be honest, i don't have the time to devote to multiple day trades, AND i don't have the confidence or the know how to be sure about my picks.


----------



## RexBudman (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah, i guess what i should be doing is riding the current volatility.
> 
> But to be honest, i don't have the time to devote to multiple day trades, AND i don't have the confidence or the know how to be sure about my picks.




You sound like me. I don't think I'll ever be a sucessful day trader. And when the market is like this, I don't think I'll be giving it a go again either...


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> You sound like me. I don't think I'll ever be a sucessful day trader. And when the market is like this, I don't think I'll be giving it a go again either...




i had ever intention of getting into day trading as of a month ago.

I even picked out a few to keep an eye on and tested my thoughts with mental buys.

The ones i picked went up greatly in short periods. 

But my trigger finger is whats holding me back.

No balls haha


----------



## skyQuake (8 August 2011)

Whos in for an up day?


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Whos in for an up day?




ooh ooh ooh pick me!!


----------



## lenny (8 August 2011)

Very interesting market atm, Todays low at 4015 equates to a 20% fall from the high on the 15/04 5025.

With a bear market roughly defined as a 20% fall over 2 months or more, Are we in a bear market?

Interesting to hear peoples thoughts?


----------



## nomore4s (8 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Whos in for an up day?




Yeah pretty good rally so far, depending on Asia, I would think we will close on our highs today, took a few trades just after open today in some top 20 stocks.


----------



## Liar's Poker (8 August 2011)

Well, the last of my sells closed out on open. I had a few losses and could have had some better profits on ones I should have sold earlier (Jan/Feb - ) - i'll keep my gold parcel with stop/loss for the time being.

At least I can sleep easy knowing 90% of my capital is preserved. 

Good luck all and good night from Paris.



-Liar-


----------



## RexBudman (8 August 2011)

Pulled out of Gold market pending announcment from RFE in regards to drilling operations. Guess you gotta spend money to make money, but this will have to be held for quite some time. Bye bye day trading oppertunities! I never would have picked them anyway..


----------



## ChrisJH (8 August 2011)

Today is looking really good so far, made up quite a bit I lost on Friday; though I expect there'll be a bit of pullback by the end of the day.

Wondering if today is a good day to sell out of a lot of things, obviously the US credit downgrade hasn't affected us today too badly, but what are the chances the US will drop significantly Monday and drag us back down on Tuesday?


----------



## RexBudman (8 August 2011)

ChrisJH said:


> Today is looking really good so far, made up quite a bit I lost on Friday; though I expect there'll be a bit of pullback by the end of the day.
> 
> Wondering if today is a good day to sell out of a lot of things, obviously the US credit downgrade hasn't affected us today too badly, but what are the chances the US will drop significantly Monday and drag us back down on Tuesday?





Glad to see you made something back. CNA made a huge increase today as opposed to the $95 close Friday, up to a $117 as of 12pm Monday 8th - wish I got in on that...


----------



## nomore4s (8 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Yeah pretty good rally so far, depending on Asia, I would think we will close on our highs today, took a few trades just after open today in some top 20 stocks.




Asia not looking good, Hong Kong is deep in the red and making new lows atm. Out of all trades now, made some pocket change only, but having a very good day on the HK futures.


----------



## RexBudman (8 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Asia not looking good, Hong Kong is deep in the red and making new lows atm. Out of all trades now, made some pocket change only, but having a very good day on the HK futures.





Wish I knew more about futures so I could jump on the bandwagon... Time for a WIKI!!!!


----------



## skc (8 August 2011)

This is what I remember from GFC 1.

Market slides every day. Until someone put a bandaid on something.

- Some Korea bank wants to buy Lehman.... sucker rally.
- G20 coordinated rescue.... sucker rally.
- TARP... sucker rally.

The path this time may be similar. And some of the upcoming short term events are...

- RBA meeting tomorrow... they might say something about cutting rates?
- Fed meeting Tuesday US... bring out QE3?
- G20 emergency meeting... some other massive bandaid?

You'd think the market is not so stupid that they would rally on QE3, but the market IS pretty stupid at the best of times imo. The question is whether QE3 is going to be effective in pushing up asset prices this time. I read a good analogy somewhere.. that QE is like taking steroids - each time the high becomes lower and the duration becomes shorter, and you need higher and higer dose to get the same effect...


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> You'd think the market is not so stupid that they would rally on QE3,




Why not, They were stupid enough to have the massive falls in the first place.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

> QE is like taking steroids - each time the high becomes lower and the duration becomes shorter, and you need higher and higer dose to get the same effect...



I think you mean heroine!
Bring on Euroland, with it's printing machine!  Psssst don't forget China created the impossisble currency competition


----------



## stacks (8 August 2011)

notting said:


> I think you mean heroine!




I think you mean heroin!


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> This is what I remember from GFC 1.
> 
> Market slides every day. Until someone put a bandaid on something.
> 
> ...




... then you overdose & die.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

No. Then you need a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a penny dreadful.
Ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the greatest bull, market on earth!


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2011)

I love this thread.

Evidently the fall in the INDEX is due simply to PANIC.
Everyone will come to their sences shortly.

The floor is littered with heros victims of stupid panick.

Just let the IMF know not to panic.
OH
US congress should be informed as well.


----------



## Jerm (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I love this thread.
> 
> Evidently the fall in the INDEX is due simply to PANIC.
> Everyone will come to their sences shortly.
> ...




My cue to buy is when these guys start posting doom and gloom  I'm going to be a millionaire!


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

We can be heroes, just for one day


----------



## skc (8 August 2011)

notting said:


> I think you mean heroine!






stacks said:


> I think you mean heroin!




Spelling and drug use don't go hand in hand.



Jerm said:


> My cue to buy is when these guys start posting doom and gloom  I'm going to be a millionaire!




My cue to buy is when you abandon this plan and all other hope...


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

My spellings even worse when I'm shaking.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> My cue to buy is when you abandon this plan and all other hope...



And my cue is to buy several months after you start buying...


----------



## skc (8 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> And my cue is to buy several months after you start buying...




We can't keep free falling like this for too much longer...

Buying today would probably see one in profit by the end of the week. But unless those profits are taken, heavy losses by end of the month is also a likely scenario.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 August 2011)

Defnitely should have taken losses this morning.

This is where being a newb is bad. Whenever my shares are going good or today for example, going less bad. I always fail to pull the trigger "just in case" they improve more.

Fail


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Defnitely should have taken losses this morning.
> 
> This is where being a newb is bad. Whenever my shares are going good or today for example, going less bad. I always fail to pull the trigger "just in case" they improve more.
> 
> Fail




Do you have a margin loan against your holdings, If not why stress. If your companies are sound and you have diversification forget about short term market movements.

I know right now it is hard, but it will pass.


----------



## AngryDwarf (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> We can't keep free falling like this for too much longer...
> 
> Buying today would probably see one in profit by the end of the week. But unless those profits are taken, heavy losses by end of the month is also a likely scenario.




I'm a noob, but I think tomorrow will be worse than today after the US gets smashed overnight.


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> *We can't keep free falling like this for too much longer...*
> Buying today would probably see one in profit by the end of the week. But unless those profits are taken, heavy losses by end of the month is also a likely scenario.






> Do you have a margin loan against your holdings, If not why stress. If your companies are sound and you have diversification forget about short term market movements.
> 
> I know right now it is hard, *but it will pass*




*WHY.*
Is everything fixed???


----------



## drsmith (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> We can't keep free falling like this for too much longer...
> 
> Buying today would probably see one in profit by the end of the week. But unless those profits are taken, heavy losses by end of the month is also a likely scenario.



That's what October 2008 tells us although this sell off is not yet of that extent.


----------



## Struzball (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *WHY.*
> Is everything fixed???




Because suurely the market wouldn't let us poor souls lose money.. again.  It will recover so we can all become rich again and wipe the sweat from our brow, *phew* crisis averted, too easy!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *WHY.*
> Is everything fixed???




Not everything is broken.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

If gold is going up in value so is everthing thing else. 
It's just a commodity valued according to percieved dollar value it's not like it's getting more rare than any other commodity. Like say hmmmm oil.
In the end everything goes up.  
Especially with hyper inflation from money printing.  
Cash is death, soon.


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Not everything is broken.




Everything is now overvalued however, even now.


----------



## Kauri (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I love this thread.
> 
> Evidently the fall in the INDEX is due simply to PANIC.
> Everyone will come to their sences shortly.
> ...




Just another small bout of Profit Taking...... :couch

Cheers
.........  Kauri


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

So highest quality blue chip stocks paying fully franked dividends at higher rates than the best fixed term interest rates in the highest interest rate paying country in the world are somehow over valued?  According to what measure would that be?
To answer my own question. - Tomorrows opening stock price. - sentiment/panic in a bi polar crisis.


----------



## ROE (8 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Do you have a margin loan against your holdings, If not why stress. If your companies are sound and you have diversification forget about short term market movements.
> 
> I know right now it is hard, but it will pass.




Agree with Tysonboss1

Dont worry it unless you buys speculative stuff
that doesnt generate +ve cash flow  and have a pile of debt

Most solid business will still be around when the storm pass
these are the time to load up on rock solid business.

I havent sold any of my stock ..I am buying more...

some day when you collect the dividend cheques you
just shake your head, how on earth can someone let go
stock this cheap 

one of the reason I can afford to buy more and more stock
and rarely sell any is I keep a portion of all my earning
that I never ever touch and I reinvest all dividend and
share I sold out for profit...

Read the a book called the Richest Man in Babylon.
if you follow his golden rules even if you made a few bad investments

here and there it's nothing compared to the earning you
can generate from compounding and consistent saving rate.

rain, hail, sun shine you you must keep a part of your earning
and invest wisely ....and you must not be tempted to eat its children early
as in dividend and capital gain, you reinvest and let it breads more
children and its children to work for you...

Once you get to a certain stage, it can generates more money than
you can spend ....now u can start eat the fruit of your labour
and it never run out...

dont be tempted by a quick return, 
nothing beats consistentcy over a long period of time and the power of compounding...

Happy investing and relax, drink nice coffee, go for a walk in the bush, ride a bike around the lake


----------



## VSntchr (8 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Everything is now overvalued however, even now.




'Everything' you say?


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> 'Everything' you say?




*Everything!*... except Kalashnikovs :


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> *Everything!*... except Kalashnikovs :



I guess that would make boeing a buy, metals? Rare earths, medical stuff, oil, boots explosives............................(surely not blue scope steel) better get busy tomorrow huh!?


----------



## Tanaka (8 August 2011)

Thumbs up if you're enjoying this tank


----------



## RandR (8 August 2011)

notting said:


> I guess that would make boeing a buy, metals? Rare earths, medical stuff, oil, boots explosives............................(surely not blue scope steel) better get busy tomorrow huh!?




Just quietly ... i think this correction could be a good time to load up on oil.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

RandR said:


> Just quietly ... i think this correction could be a good time to load up on oil.



MPO is one I'm nibbling on as we descend into the abyse.
It's a beautiful chart don't you think?

Ever met a rich chartist that isn't selling charting?


----------



## YELNATS (8 August 2011)

ROE said:


> Happy investing and relax, drink nice coffee, go for a walk in the bush, ride a bike around the lake




Lol. I love this post, brightens up the day. If you survived GFC I, you're match-hardened by now.


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2011)

notting said:


> MPO is one I'm nibbling on as we descend into the abyse.
> It's a beautiful chart don't you think?
> 
> Ever met a rich chartist that isn't selling charting?




Oh please! A line taken from someone trying to sell fundamental stock tips ferchrissake!

Can we just put that stupid cliche to bed?


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2011)

notting said:


> MPO is one I'm nibbling on as we descend into the abyse.
> It's a beautiful chart don't you think?
> 
> *Ever met a rich chartist that isn't selling charting*?




I might know a few.


----------



## explod (8 August 2011)

Respect for the Charts, the Fundamentals and the fear.

Sold my last stock held today and will not be trying to catch falling knives.

Time for a drink, feel much better.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

Sorry about the cliche. It was a bit pathetic. Such a great thread till then.
Personally I respect charts, you have to, so many people follow them!
I like the sound of that Bolinger guy the one that looked at nature in things or what ever that was about.
Due to my psychological inadequacies and tendancy to be a Mr Scrooge, I find it almost impossible to buy stocks on their way up.
So the falling knife cliche is the only thing that works for me, personally, "Know thy self" - Sorry another one.


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

Oh look.

The basket case that is the Eurozone has used all that flammable gas expelled by the Gang of 7 to blast their sharemarkets on open to dizzy heights! Of course, this will now lead to a frenzied Bull attack on Wall Street overnight?

So, who bought up big on the close??

ASX up 150+ tomorrow??



Uh-oh. 10 minutes is a lo-o-o-ng time in stock trading! Looks like the Eurorocket hit some unforeseen turbulence and is now in a wobbly spin after the French & German tailfins fell off... wonder where it might land?

Can the Spanish & Italian astronuts save it? Run aw-a-a-a-a-y....!


----------



## Kauri (8 August 2011)

explod said:


> Respect for the Charts, the Fundamentals and the fear.
> 
> Sold my last stock held today and will not be trying to catch falling knives.
> 
> *Time for a drink, feel much better.*





A man after me own heart..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

No I didn't buy up big.
You know what they say.
"There are bold traders and old traders but no 'old bold traders'." Woops another one.
(disclaimer - accept for the odd inspired moment, but that's not bold it's just obvious)
Where are my drugs


----------



## littleshire (8 August 2011)

Hi all,

To all the people that all this is happening to them for the first time:

- don’t panic, stop and think, then stop and think again
- review your strategy for any flaws, if one of your holdings has revealed its weak fundamentals; swap it for one with stronger ones (minimum for the same amount in total dollars)
- remember: “buy on rumour, sell on news” and “be brave when everybody is fearful”. If anything, this is a time for buying. Most of the companies have just started to report earnings so the bulk of the selling is currently done on rumour and fear.
- Australia public debt to GDP is only 25%, for the USA, it is 100%, this is contagion, it will pass… guaranteed.  
- if still scared, stop, go and read “The Intelligent Investor”, if still scared, then sorry… the stock market is not for you, wait for the rebound and sell everything and never come back.

Happy investing


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

Wow. Deep dude. I hear ya man.
Peace


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Hi all,
> 
> To all the people that all this is happening to them for the first time:
> 
> ...




View attachment 43892


----------



## Kauri (8 August 2011)

barney said:


> Lazarus has returned ... lol
> 
> a) Enjoyed your posts previously
> b) I have improved my trading substantially in your absence
> ...





  Hi Barney ...   Back until rehab cotton on that I have bolted and they round me up again.  
:alcohol:

your trading was good as it was, , you gave me a few pointers.

Cheers
... Kauri


----------



## IFocus (8 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> [/SIZE][/B]
> 
> A man after me own heart..
> 
> ...





Welcome back Kauri your humor has been greatly missed hope all is well.


----------



## Liar's Poker (8 August 2011)

explod said:


> Respect for the Charts, the Fundamentals and the fear.
> 
> Sold my last stock held today and will not be trying to catch falling knives.
> 
> Time for a drink, feel much better.




Same here Explod.

My shout.


----------



## blue0810 (8 August 2011)

It is not panic when we have to sell .


----------



## skc (8 August 2011)

YELNATS said:


> Lol. I love this post, brightens up the day. If you survived GFC I, you're match-hardened by now.




If you survived GFC I and yet learned nothing... your brain is hardened up.



notting said:


> Ever met a rich chartist that isn't selling charting?




There is a fault in logic here... 

Just because all the chartists you have come across are selling charting... and let's face it those are the chartist who jump out and introduce themselves... it doesn't follow that there are no rich chartists who aren't selling charting.



Tanaka said:


> Thumbs up if you're enjoying this tank






I didn't know much about trading during GFC I... let's see if I've learned anything since.



Aussiejeff said:


> Oh look.
> 
> The basket case that is the Eurozone has used all that flammable gas expelled by the Gang of 7 to blast their sharemarkets on open to dizzy heights! Of course, this will now lead to a frenzied Bull attack on Wall Street overnight?
> 
> ...




Just like I said, the heroin's effect becomes weaker and weaker. That ECB bazooka only lasted 2 hours. DAX is now back at daily low...


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2011)

FTSE tanking nicely
Love a good panic.


----------



## banco (8 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Hi all,
> 
> To all the people that all this is happening to them for the first time:
> 
> ...




This is all well and good but there's lots of baby boomers who can't afford to sit through these stock market gyrations every few years.  I'd certainly be tempted to panic if I was them.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

Amazing that they started positive. They do that quite often even when US futures are in the can. Then they tank when US comes on line down. Just weird.
I really do look at charts. Sometimes however macro events make whipsaw whiplash turtle soup of the daily Eliot wave that becomes a running flat negating the expected final wave down that turns back into a weekly Eliot wave that becomes broken, stopped out again sudden reversal gap up to the heavens where it sais to buy again. Nope.


----------



## blue0810 (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> FTSE tanking nicely
> Love a good panic.




Shorts are having a party !!
BHP.L  -4.00% RIO.L  ~-4.33%  So far.


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2011)

notting said:


> Amazing that they started positive. They do that quite often even when US futures are in the can. Then they tank when US comes on line down. Just weird.
> I really do look at charts. Sometimes however macro events make whipsaw whiplash turtle soup of the daily Eliot wave that becomes a running flat negating the expected final wave down that turns back into a weekly Eliot wave that becomes broken, stopped out again sudden reversal gap up to the heavens where it sais to buy again. Nope.




What the???

US is closed

At open shorts will be covered hence buyers.
When they dry up supply and down it goes,
Thats why it's common practice to fade the open--------


----------



## James58209 (8 August 2011)

tminus said:


> A noob question: is it possible to short the ASX at 10.01am to catch part of the fall, or is 10.01 too late as there would be a back log of stop sells to process.




I suggest you read:
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2010/02/the-problem-with-the-asx-indexes.html

There are various derivatives which track the index, and can be traded around market opening time, but if you are a "noob", I doubt you will be able to develop a sound strategy to make a profit whilst controlling/minimizing risk, slippage, brokerage etc. And I certainly wouldn't be trading highly leveraged derivatives during such a volatile period. Without leverage, you would probably need a massive capital base, just to make a small profit.


----------



## sails (8 August 2011)

banco said:


> This is all well and good but there's lots of baby boomers who can't afford to sit through these stock market gyrations every few years.  I'd certainly be tempted to panic if I was them.





Some of us have it (at least a reasonable part of it) in cash, earning interest and compounding...lol


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 August 2011)

skc said:


> Just like I said, the heroin's effect becomes weaker and weaker. That ECB bazooka only lasted 2 hours. DAX is now back at daily low...




Holy cow, that Eurorocket has unexpectedly morphed into the Thunderbird Mole and appears intent on boring straight down to China!


----------



## Kauri (8 August 2011)

I wonder if the markets are waiting for Bernankes battlers to fire up and give the punters some direction. Seems, going by the volatility at the moment, that everyone is second guessing their reaction to the weekends events. 

Cheers
..... Kauri


----------



## tech/a (8 August 2011)

That was fun

Will see how things are in the morrow.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

Your the smartest duck I'v ever met.
Tell me when to buy something.


----------



## Muschu (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> That was fun
> 
> Will see how things are in the morrow.




Respect your views Tech -- and read your posts whenever I encounter them.  Mind you I doubt many others find the volatiliity "fun"... Me for one.. I'd prefer a never-ending bull run .... 

I found your recent analysis of the DOW very interesting -- think you suggested it could reach 8900.... If you are still holding to this, and if the XJO followed suit, then would this take it to around 3200 which is not far off the low of the GFC?  [You even suggested the possibility of a much lower level but I didn't allow my brain to absorb it...]

Thanks for your comments / analyses 

Rick 

As I type the DOW futures are at -246 but the index has been all over the shop for several hours.


----------



## notting (8 August 2011)

> it doesn't follow that there are no rich chartists who aren't selling charting.



I guess I was fishing for one to jump out and introduce themselves to me.
Tech made a subtle affirmation. Will see what happens.
I did like your AWE chart SKC. True to form it was too.


----------



## drsmith (8 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> I wonder if the markets are waiting for Bernankes battlers to fire up and give the punters some direction.



At some point, more stimulus will start to look like this,


----------



## Julia (8 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *WHY.*
> Is everything fixed???



Exactly.  Nothing has changed.  No solution to any of the mess is in sight.



Kauri said:


> Just another small bout of Profit Taking...... :couch
> 
> Cheers
> .........  Kauri



Good to have you back, Kauri.



wayneL said:


> Oh please! A line taken from someone trying to sell fundamental stock tips ferchrissake!
> 
> Can we just put that stupid cliche to bed?



Agree.  And it's just one of the dozens of cliches that litter this thread.



banco said:


> This is all well and good but there's lots of baby boomers who can't afford to sit through these stock market gyrations every few years.  I'd certainly be tempted to panic if I was them.



If you were a sensible baby boomer who had taken the trouble to acquire even a basic level of financial literacy, and if you'd spent half an hour a day following the world news, you'd have engaged in some capital preservation long before now, and therefore have no need to panic.

NB  Sails' comment above.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2011)

Is there still a huge pile of debt that is growing by the minute?

Are central banks still inflating like there's no tomorrow?

Has anyone worked out how to make gold out of thin air yet?

Is world population continuing to rise?

Are China and India still on a path to achieve Western levels of motor vehicle ownership and send oil consumption through the roof?

Are there still wars being fought or threatened in key oil producing regions?

Does Japan still have one almighty mess at Fukushima that they can't even hope to clean up anytime soon?

A few fancy band aids may have been applied but nothing fundamental has been fixed. The problems that existed prior to the market's fall are still there today.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> - Australia public debt to GDP is only 25%, for the USA, it is 100%, this is contagion, it will pass… guaranteed.




Private debt to gdp around 160-170%, 2nd or 3rd in the world

My thoughts....

High Australian employment dictating corporate profits will surely have to put a floor on the values of those companies most exposed to local economic conditions?

Market to tank or shoot up on the Fed announcement tomorrow?


I'm ready to buy some more  opcorn:


----------



## Liar's Poker (9 August 2011)

Looking forward to another nice increase in gold tomorrow (Code: gold). 

Was sitting with a friend at a cafe on the Boulvard Des Chanselise across from a money exchange with a 'bloomberg' type news stream. I was watching all the people walking up and panicking. 

Champagne in hand, I must have had a rye smile, as my friend lent across and in his broken English said:

_He who remains calm in the midst of chaos is truly insane_


-Liar-


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2011)

Anyone who bought up yesterday, "Lie back and think of England".


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Anyone who bought up yesterday, "Lie back and think of England".




At today's ASX open a man in a crocodile hat will appear and foorsooth...

"You think that's a tank? Phhhfffttt...

*[size=+2]THIS[/size]* is a tank!!!!"


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 August 2011)

There is a whole slew of VERY IMPORTANT US economic data out in the next 8 US working days (thank gawd there was none last night or -1,000 might have been on the cards!). 

Amongst the possible further bombshells this week and next (many with negative forecasts) are .. http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic

2Q Productivity slump, sharp increase in jobless claims & slump in consumer confidence are all forecast!!

[size=-3]PS: Sorry - the lists show in reverse order for some reason.[/size]


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 August 2011)

ASX futures *-157* and counting....


----------



## LifeChoices (9 August 2011)

Check out all the head and shoulders here:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/08/head-and-shoulders-horror


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

Unbelievable...Went to bed last night at 3am thinking I've seen the worst of the freefall. But S&P managed to fall another 3.5% in the afternoon.

There is the all important Fed announcement tonight and I think Benny B will bring out, what he thinks, a bazooka of a QE3 and the market will rally (for a few hours). 
But by tomorrow morning the old motto "Never bet against the Fed" will be shattered completely, and the new craze will be "Fade the Fed". 

Here are a few more signs that GFC^2 is upon us. 

- Another G20 crisis meeting
- Greece banned short selling (best analogy I've seen was blaming gravity for planes falling)
- Rule 48 invoked on NYSE last night

And it's GFC^2 (squared) because this one shapes up to be far worst than GFC I. The best scenario offered by commentators is "We might muddle through this".


----------



## Muschu (9 August 2011)

sails said:


> Some of us have it (at least a reasonable part of it) in cash, earning interest and compounding...lol




I hesitate at the "lol".  I am also in cash but I respect the tough decisons that others have had to make -- and surely no 2 sets of circumstances are identical.

Tech is right, imo, about the benefits of good charting [or in some cases in following a good chartist -- not necessarily a "rich" one].  

Have people who have sat in cash consistently these past several years done the right thing by themseleves and their capital?  Absolutely if this is their considered stance.

Others, myself included, have followed different advice and traded the trends -- losing at times [ORG, ORI, WES and TOL for example] and winning on others [SKE, AGO, ASL and SIP for example].

I prefer to respect the positions, strategies and views of others - whether they be 26, 46 or [like me] 66.  

There is no one path.

Just my thoughts

Rick


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> Unbelievable...Went to bed last night at 3am thinking I've seen the worst of the freefall. But S&P managed to fall another 3.5% in the afternoon.
> 
> There is the all important Fed announcement tonight and I think Benny B will bring out, what he thinks, a bazooka of a QE3 and the market will rally (for a few hours).
> But by tomorrow morning the old motto "Never bet against the Fed" will be shattered completely, and the new craze will be "Fade the Fed".
> ...




Obama sure is in a muddle right now. On the one hand, he protesteth that S&P's ratings are meaningless ("USA AAA forever!" etc) yet on the other hand, why make such a big fuss about sustaining a AAA myth? The man beggars belief.

Just to twist the knife a bit deeper, S&P have last night downgraded scores of companies the US is currently bailing out http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/21840-s&p-downgrade-hits-scores-of-us-companies.html (ie Freddie Mac, Fannie May et all) thus ensuring the debt bill will unexpectedly rise much higher. The already struggling Muni funding markets are also going to feel the squeeze as they will inevitably have to be downgraded too.

Crack the champers, Timmy?


----------



## $20shoes (9 August 2011)

Saturday's AGE:

''I think at the moment it is all theory, it is not actual money,'' Mr Wenban said.
Some self-funded retirees have come to me and are quite panicked about  it, but I've had to say to them, 'For god's sake, don't sell, just hang  on,''' he said.
​''But for those who are years away from retirement, they need to be  philosophical and understand that markets can be volatile, but in the  long term they should be fine.''
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/money/supe...ot-to-panic-20110808-1ii75.html#ixzz1UTk5lS5D


...My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Time in the market is far better than timing the market.
_(with apologies to Mr Owens)_

At what does it become irresponsible to print this stuff? Is "time in the market" the defacto philosophy simply because we don't educate our citizens on how to handle their own financial affairs?
​

​


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

$20shoes said:


> To children ardent for some desperate glory,
> The old Lie: Time in the market is far better than timing the market.
> _(with apologies to Mr Owens)_
> 
> ...




Market has a short memory. But it's not like the last bear market was 20 years ago and the new generation of market participants has forgotten about it all. It was only 2 years ago FFS. Evidently people haven't learnt anything


----------



## blue0810 (9 August 2011)

As a trader ..  Just trade the markets.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Its OK everyone Moodies are still positive about the short term US. LOL
How good was Obama's speach!
Basically said "doesn't matter what grade they give us, We are the United States of America!!!"
'Praise Jesus.'
Just don't understand why the Markets tanked.


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> Market has a short memory. But it's not like the last bear market was 20 years ago and the new generation of market participants has forgotten about it all. It was only 2 years ago FFS. Evidently people haven't learnt anything




The history of financial markets is littered with the same booms & busts repeated over and over again but yet it appears we never learn.

Any sort of basic research into stock market crashes would have shown that after a crash (2008) there is normally a period of a couple of years of rallies and "good times" before we see a serious attempt to push back towards the lows or even new lows.

Here is a link to some analysis from 2009 highlighting this and also a link to the latest chart.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=459839#post459839
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=649851&viewfull=1#post649851

So for those who think now is the time to buy history suggests that it is in fact too early.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

Yeapp too early. Will get lower.

Only question i have now is, time to sell?

I'm tempted to wait it out. But i dunno..


----------



## ChrisJH (9 August 2011)

Well, the Americans had a fun day!

I have a question, perhaps a bit of a newbie question, if anybody would like to provide their thoughts for me.

I wouldn't say I have been a long term investor, I guess medium term trader? Holding for weeks/months and selling. I'm young enough to wait out any silly stock market nonsense. Obviously I have taken some quite severe losses at the moment. I can hold on to these and wait, and wait and wait for years for things to get back to where they were if need be; I don't want to go around selling everything in a panic.

But. If it _seems_ that things are going to get worse, is it a _bad_ or _unwise_ strategy to sell for a loss in this downturn in the _expectation/hope_ that I will be able to buy these companies back at a lower price soon in the future?

I don't want to be like all the panic stricken during the GFC that sold out all their investments at the very bottom, and ended up with nothing but huge losses.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

ChrisJH said:


> Well, the Americans had a fun day!
> 
> I have a question, perhaps a bit of a newbie question, if anybody would like to provide their thoughts for me.
> 
> ...




Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you mate. I get the feeling that we are too late for that though.

If i had of sold up on friday or even thursday i would be about 10% better off. 

Currently down 20%, it is highly unlikely that i will take those losses.

If i had the time to sit down and wisely day trade my way back up then i might just bail out and wait for a turn. But chances are i wont be able to do that.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

If you had the time to sit down and day trade you'd have been better off spending that time at the casino!  Share markets have so much promise, and that's where it ends for day traders, well 90% of em. Roll?


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

notting said:


> If you had the time to sit down and day trade you'd have been better off spending that time at the casino!  Share markets have so much promise, and that's where it ends for day traders, well 90% of em. Roll?




Just lol, how about if you had time to sit down and trade you'd have been better of spending that time educating yourself about how to actually trade and developing strategies to actually succeed.

There is a reason 90% fail, because unlike a lot of other professions it is very easy to get into the markets without the right experience, education and plan. You wouldn't go into business without a plan and some idea of what you are doing yet plenty of people jump into the markets with absolutely no idea of what they are doing and then wonder why the lose money.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Just lol, how about if you had time to sit down and trade you'd have been better of spending that time educating yourself about how to actually trade and developing strategies to actually succeed.
> 
> There is a reason 90% fail, because unlike a lot of other professions it is very easy to get into the markets without the right experience, education and plan. You wouldn't go into business without a plan and some idea of what you are doing yet plenty of people jump into the markets with absolutely no idea of what they are doing and then wonder why the lose money.




Yep. I fully agree.

I took this approach, i was silly, i got caught up in the fun of trading and seeing my portfolio in the green was great fun.

i had many points where i could have sold and taken profits, but held off "just incase" it rose again. Without fully thinking about, well, what if it all goes to ****.

That's my bad and I feel like a bit of an idiot for not taking profits when i could have. But at the ripe age of 22, something like this is a great learning experience and overall I am not too worried.

If i had margin loans set up i would be much more worried. But i have the time to ride it out, and while i was a bit quick off the mark with some purchases, I did do my research and the companies i bought are relatively debt free with bulk amounts of money in assets/cash in the bank. So I'm confident that when poor market sentiment runs out, they will recover.

Long story short, I was a bit nieve, cocky and impatient with my trades.

Lets hope I have learnt my lesson.


----------



## tminus (9 August 2011)

ChrisJH said:


> I guess medium term trader? Holding for weeks/months and selling. I'm young enough to wait out any silly stock market nonsense.



I am a noob myself, if you are holding stocks for a month or two you should have stops in place at least around 10%. Very rare for a stock to fall 10% and then rise back within a month or two.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you mate. I get the feeling that we are too late for that though.
> 
> If i had of sold up on friday or even thursday i would be about 10% better off.
> 
> ...




*AN IMPORTANT DILEMA.* 

One that many find themselves in and one Ive faced many times. 
What choices.

*Firstly*---the adage Ive seen here---if it is undervalued and a good stock then why sell it.---because there is a good chance that world economic forces could re value the company due to their impact upon it.---somehwre down the track---in other words what bis value now may not remain so and may not be seen as value by investors in the future.

*Secondly.*
Whats changed.?
There is still massive debt which is not going to be paid in Europe unless the IMF come to the party. So European union is STILL doing very little to overcome the issue of insolvent countries.
The US STILL prints money to increase its debt and increase its IOU's.

Until these issues are addressed and solutions implemented the next bull market will be a distant idea.

My personal view is this has a long way to go to the downside.
Sure there will be periods of revival and they *WILL be MET* by the many who are in your position who will see this as an opportunity to get *SOMETHING* back.
Resistance will be ever present.
As such new highs and even a decient recovery is in my view very distant.
Lower lows and even very lower lows over the next 12 mths are highly likely.

Rescue packages wont cut it.The world has seen that they are no more than bandaids used to stem a hemorrhage.

*So what to do.*

Beside hindsite
You can wait for a bounce---you run the risk that any bounce will not reach todays levels.
You sell x% of your position NOW.
You protect your positions with a hedge like a short index (Future) position.(If I was still in the market this would be my choice).

Its very common for people to hold positions infinitum when the *LOSS* becomes too painful to take. If it was too painful Friday its like a heart attack today.

Learn from this.
*RISK is NO 1*
*DONT* be a hero.
Be* DECISIVE.*
Exiting too early is preferable to exiting too late.

And as *RADGE SAYS*

It doesnt matter that your wrong---just how long you stay wrong!


----------



## ChrisJH (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> i had many points where i could have sold and taken profits, but held off "just incase" it rose again. Without fully thinking about, well, what if it all goes to ****.
> 
> Long story short, I was a bit nieve, cocky and impatient with my trades.




Pretty much what I have done.  

I did have a trading plan for when I buy and sell, and every time I followed it things went well. And then there were times where I thought, "Maybe I'll hold it one more day and squeeze some more money out of it..." Or, "Can't wait, must buy it now."

Lesson's learnt. 



tminus said:


> I am a noob myself, if you are holding stocks for a month or two you should have stops in place at least around 10%. Very rare for a stock to fall 10% and then rise back within a month or two.




Did have. Then changed my mind. 

Might log out of CommSec and check back in a few years.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *AN IMPORTANT DILEMA.*
> 
> *So what to do.*
> 
> ...




None of those options are "wait till market recovers and you are in the green again"

I'm going to guess that you don't see that as a reality at this point in time?

I'm not trying to be a hero. Its very hard however, for me to accept a 22% loss on my shares.

Sigh


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

> Its very common for people to hold positions infinitum when the LOSS becomes too painful to take. If it was too painful Friday its like a heart attack today.






> I'm not trying to be a hero. Its very hard however, for me to accept a 22% loss on my shares




I know.
Friday it was 10% today 22%
in a month could be 40% or 10% or + 10%
The only thing you know for sure is *TODAYS* liquidated value.
So far NO CHOICE has been very costly.
If thats your choice then EXPECT a similar result.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

22% loss is a great performance in this market.

What's annoying me about all the commentary is that everyones saying, they have to come up with something different they have to do something!
There is nothing 'they' can do.  
They default something and the whole system collapses because it's all intertwined! Do it now? Why not wait till it does itself?  What's the difference? No one knows how much rioting and caos will be created when it happens.
How do we know that sooner is better than later? To say yep, where all bankrupt, may as well pull the trigger now.
This goes beyond general business eticate.
Printing is still the best option because China cheated for so long.  They screwed everone. 
OK so we have to pay $100 for bread tomorrow.  
At least there is a financial tomorrow.
The world is a social place not a business and in the end that will be the priority.
(Disclaimer I'm still nibbling)


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I know.
> Friday it was 10% today 22%
> in a month could be 40% or 10% or + 10%
> The only thing you know for sure is *TODAYS* liquidated value.
> ...




And if im willing to wait 6 months + to be in the green?

Sad thing is for me to gain back a 23% loss.

I need to gain 28% on current prices.

Decisions are too hard. 

I'm not cut out for this, not yet anyway.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 August 2011)

Watching 3820 for a bounce.  BHP maybe.

Actually it's going to bounce now.


----------



## againsthegrain (9 August 2011)

You can sit and hold and maybye eventually you will get your money back, just better hope that the portfolio you have now wins the race once the market picks up again and you have time to cash out and pick up other bargains around, not likely!

I learned my lesson last gfc, sat and held like the rest of the herd then once the market started shaping up again missed too many opportunities because I was locked in hoping to make it all back - which I did but could of made alot more.

Im all out today around 30% loss, already have my sights set on bargains once the dust settles. Probably wont be this week not likely the next but eventually things will start looking more positive.

Should of would of could of sold thrusday friday but didn't, sold today maybye by the end of the week would of been saying wish I sold monday tuesday


----------



## Struzball (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> And if im willing to wait 6 months + to be in the green?




Probably lots of people would wait six months for a profit.

Though I'm pretty sure nobody suggested you would be in the green if you watch the stocks continue to fall for the next six months.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

againsthegrain said:


> You can sit and hold and maybye eventually you will get your money back, just better hope that the portfolio you have now wins the race once the market picks up again and you have time to cash out and pick up other bargains around, not likely!
> 
> I learned my lesson last gfc, sat and held like the rest of the herd then once the market started shaping up again missed too many opportunities because I was locked in hoping to make it all back - which I did but could of made alot more.
> 
> ...




Wow, i admire your ability to take losses. It really is not an easy thing to do. 

I would have taken losses last week if i felt i had the time and skill to trade my way back up. At this point in time i still don't feel like i have the skill to trade my way back up.

So is there any point me selling out and then being too scared to buy back in when the market is low?

Mayaswell just leave my shares and play the waiting game.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

> I would have taken losses last week if i felt i had the time and skill to trade my way back up. At this point in time i still don't feel like i have the skill to trade my way back up.




So sitting on a losing portfolio is your answer.
Your right your not cut out for this.


----------



## againsthegrain (9 August 2011)

I have been through it once, so its a different story now. Better locking in something then nothing. 

Last gfc I saw my trading parcel of just under 20k slowly shrink to 3k! 

On the intial hit ground zero it instantly went to around 15k and that was shocking to watch at no stage did I think cash out, just had to make it back somehow, sit back watch the news in hope for some positives.

Stupidly I bought a few things, caught a few falling knives which kept falling. 2 or 3 months down the track everything was still dropping, even worse to watch that 15k turn into 3k over months rather then in just 1 hit.

Then as things were starting to look more promising my portfolio was not moving much, everybody was saying how they picked up this and that made a quick 20% while all I could do was sit and hope.

So now rather take a initial quick loss then bleed out slowly and be able to sit on sidelines with some ammunition.

Of course don't take this as advice on what to do in your situation right now, no 2 situations or stocks are the same. For my experience it may be totally different to yours, maybye your portfolio will bounce back in a few weeks. But consider all the options and possible situations.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> So sitting on a losing portfolio is your answer.
> Your right your not cut out for this.




Well no. It's not my answer.

What i meant was i'm not confident that i would make the right picks, that i would buy at the lows, or that i would make the most of taking my losses.

But perhaps its time to get out for now.

Always get caught on the what if's. What if tommorow is a brighter day? What if the end of the week brings it back up.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

againsthegrain said:


> I have been through it once, so its a different story now. Better locking in something then nothing.
> 
> Last gfc I saw my trading parcel of just under 20k slowly shrink to 3k!
> 
> ...




I'm trying to consider all options. But to be honest, making the hard decisions has always been a downside. I get emotional, i get stubborn and i worry about my damaged pride of losing my money when i often pride myself on being so financially switched on.

Its stupid i know.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

One of the things I like to do on days like today is look at it like it's the day of the election.
People really show what they believe about different stocks and the percentage drop is the vote.
Good to take a mental snap shot
Oil is almost at a level that spells growth.  S&P have saved us.
Rubini just predicted QE3 Tuesday with a rally.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Well no. It's not my answer.
> 
> What i meant was i'm not confident that i would make the right picks, that i would buy at the lows, or that i would make the most of taking my losses.
> 
> ...




You know it doesn't really matter what you do because if your a smart guy you'll learn from it.

(1) If it rises then you'll learn that you should have been out Thursday or Friday and man your one lucky "B"

(2) If it falls then you'll learn that you should have sold Thursday or Friday and your in- decisiveness and lack of control in sticking with your plan has been a very costly lesson.

So sit back and learn.


----------



## RexBudman (9 August 2011)

For the Love of God, is there no relief?

All Ords in days of censecutive $150+ losses from a ripe $4300 average to a miniscule $3800 average!?

I mean come on - my portfolio is almost worthless and the only good number is the number of holdings!

How long will I have to wait before I can get some profits? I really wish I had cashed out at the resistance price, but because of company operations about to start I did not sell, I Waited, and watched it all go to Sh*t...

So now what? Wait a year to get money back? Jeez....

The Market paniced for miniscule reasons and desperate selling brought us to where we are today - and no one is learning, they are still desperatley selling holdings. Fair enough if you are trying to find volatile short term stocks to make a quick buck on, but the entire market isn't chock with day traders and volatile markets. Even steady stocks with very small moving averages are hitting the bricks.

IS there no relief? Is there no safety for the common day investor? I will not sell my holdings, and that is final. I want my money back, and I want it back now with some profits to get excited about...

If I lost this much backing NRL I'd have spewed, but now I want to stick to my guns...


----------



## 2bob bit (9 August 2011)

It's funny but 2 songs from the clash come to mind today.

"Should i stay or Should i go" and "London's burning"


----------



## Kauri (9 August 2011)

and Skippy has hit parity  ...   thank God we have got the dependable USA to park our money in when the rest of the world wallows ...  

Cheers
...........  kauri


----------



## Boggo (9 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Watching 3820 for a bounce.  BHP maybe.
> 
> Actually it's going to bounce now.




Potential bounce right in the max C zone... https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=650096&viewfull=1#post650096

Is it the bottom, only the market can tell us that *after* it has bottomed, can it go lower, of course it can.
The number of "bargains at these prices" comments I see is amazing, you would be better off in a casino betting on red than trying to bottom pick in a falling market.

Saw a comment on Robusta's thread stating _"we don't know what the market will do next"_, don't worry about what it will do next, work with what it is doing now.

Eventually it will go up, then we WORK WITH that situation, not try to pre-empt it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 August 2011)

All Ords at RSI(15)<20 has historically been a good time to buy.  That's where we're at.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2011)

It is 22C in Townsville at present, a glorious day, some high cloud.

It was 11C overnight, chilly as expected for this time of year.

I have been away, anything happening in the markets?

gg


----------



## Boggo (9 August 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is 22C in Townsville at present, a glorious day, some high cloud.
> 
> It was 11C overnight, chilly as expected for this time of year.
> 
> ...




and your cash is worth the same today as it was yesterday gg


----------



## James58209 (9 August 2011)

Having learned to cut losses on bad investments, (and transfer the capital to somewhere I can be more optimistic about - even it is just a boring savings account), I can't help joining the chorus of other posters questioning the wisdom of holding on for dear life in the face of heavy losses. Of course now might not be the "right" time to sell (nobody knows), but it is a good time to make sure you have a sensible plan for limiting the extent of further losses.

When something bad happens to your investment, and things don't go the way you expected, and you don't have a well thought-out plan to deal with what has just happened, it may be wise to consider common emotional pitfalls which get many investors and traders into trouble:

http://www.etftradingsignals.com/are-these-4-emotional-pitfalls-sabotaging-your-trading/

*Are These 4 Emotional Pitfalls Sabotaging Your Trading?*
By Jeffrey Kennedy

I actually found 5 mentioned in the article...


“Lottery Syndrome.”
“Inability to Admit Failure.”
“Fear of Missing the Party."
"Chasing one seemingly hot market after another."
“Systems Junkie.”


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is 22C in Townsville at present, a glorious day, some high cloud.
> 
> It was 11C overnight, chilly as expected for this time of year.
> 
> ...




You sound like my dad!

Just left for a 3 week holiday where he will be out of reception.

Not a care in the world about the market "i'll wait it out, just like i did last time"

I guess that gave me a false sense of security with what my plan should be, because i respect him and his opinion, especially with investing.

Just wish i could be that carefree.


----------



## derty (9 August 2011)

2bob bit said:


> It's funny but 2 songs from the clash come to mind today.
> 
> "Should i stay or Should i go" and "London's burning"




Well I've been singing "Standing on the Outside": Cold Chisel for a few weeks now. And happy about it. 

I have been looking at all these bargains and keep thinking it can't go much lower. Then tomorrow comes and down they go again. I managed to get out reasonably early during GFC1 but bought back in at most of the sucker rallies, not wanting to get left behind only to have to bail again with less capital. Then when when the recovery actually commenced in March 09 I was a bit gun shy and missed quite a bit of the boat. 

I plan to keep my distance until things at least flatten off, but when you get a "V" shaped recovery/bounce it is hard not to want to jump back in with both feet. The fear of being left behind or missing out is a powerful driver. It is times like this when tight hard stops can save you a crap load of money. However, it is much easier saying it than doing it. 

Good luck to those still holding and to those planning to jump back in. 

I don't plan to be singing "Catch a Falling Knife and Put it in Your Bottom Drawer"


----------



## Struzball (9 August 2011)

derty said:


> I don't plan to be singing "Catch a Falling Knife and Put it in Your Bottom Drawer"




Sounds like a country song.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Well done Derty.
Hope you get in way cheaper than where you got out.


----------



## littleshire (9 August 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Private debt to gdp around 160-170%, 2nd or 3rd in the world
> 
> My thoughts....
> 
> ...




Public debt is concentrated, this means, is all in the government hands, if the government fails, the whole economy is in deep trouble, have a look at Japan to see what the future for the USA may look like. As a rule, you should avoid any economy with a public debt to GDP greater than 60% (this is even a rule for membership of the EU, it looks like is not a rule to stay in there)

Private debt in the other hand is distributed between the market players, some households have enormous quantities of debt and some others have low or none. When trouble comes, the ones indebted get in trouble and go bankrupted, similar to what happened in GFC I when corporations that had high levels of debt went broke (B&B, ABS).

High Public Debt should make you think avoiding a whole market altogether.
Private debt should make you cautions, in this case, invest in companies that provide basic services or have leverage to Asian emerging economies (WOW, BHP).

To all the sellers in this forum, remember that even for the best chartists out there is almost impossible to predict the bottom, therefore if your plan is to buy cheaper later on you may miss the rebound altogether, is worth asking yourselves the question: “if you sell when the market is cheap, is your plan to make a profit solid?”

Good luck to all


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Watching 3820 for a bounce.  BHP maybe.
> 
> Actually it's going to bounce now.




That was at 11.15. Not a bad scoop!


----------



## Julia (9 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> I hesitate at the "lol".  I am also in cash but I respect the tough decisons that others have had to make -- and surely no 2 sets of circumstances are identical.
> 
> Have people who have sat in cash consistently these past several years done the right thing by themseleves and their capital?  Absolutely if this is their considered stance.



You seem to rather be admonishing Sails for her comment, Rick.  I don't see where she has 'sat in cash consistently' or where she's suggesting anyone else should do so.  As a very experienced options trader, I'd be surprised if she had.



> I prefer to respect the positions, strategies and views of others - whether they be 26, 46 or [like me] 66.



Sure.  However, inevitably some of the comments on this thread are bound to be what I'd say are pretty sensible responses to the bewilderment that's being expressed by inexperienced people who have never had the, um, challenging experience of a market rout.

As such, I'd say most of these responses are offered in an attempt to be helpful which most of them indeed are.





tech/a said:


> *AN IMPORTANT DILEMA.*
> 
> One that many find themselves in and one Ive faced many times.
> What choices.
> ...






tech/a said:


> I know.
> Friday it was 10% today 22%
> in a month could be 40% or 10% or + 10%
> The only thing you know for sure is *TODAYS* liquidated value.
> ...



I'd suggest everyone who is feeling afraid/confused should consider printing off the above post and keep it in front of them all the time.



alexc2005 said:


> Wow, i admire your ability to take losses. It really is not an easy thing to do.



Alex, you're right:  it's probably the most difficult single thing to learn.  Don't feel bad that you're finding it so.
Learn about stop losses, protecting your profits and protecting your capital.


----------



## Billyb (9 August 2011)

derty said:


> I plan to keep my distance until things at least flatten off, but when you get a "V" shaped recovery/bounce it is hard not to want to jump back in with both feet. The fear of being left behind or missing out is a powerful driver. It is times like this when tight hard stops can save you a crap load of money. However, it is much easier saying it than doing it.




I feel exactly the same.

Interesting day today so far, all of a sudden the All ords is in the green, earlier having been more than 5% done. Not to mention the aussie dollar. Strange times


----------



## Billyb (9 August 2011)

Julia said:


> I'd suggest everyone who is feeling afraid/confused should consider printing off the above post and keep it in front of them all the time.




I'm always gracious to see the experienced sharing their advice.


----------



## lenny (9 August 2011)

I've been watching sky business channel today and all the guest brokers/anylasts have been very bullish the last two days which makes me think there is still allot more to come lol.

Reminds me of 2008 when stocks went from Good value > Great value > Bargin price > a once in a decade buy!

How quickly we forget!


----------



## YELNATS (9 August 2011)

lenny said:


> I've been watching sky business channel today and all the guest brokers/anylasts have been very bullish !




I watch that show from time to time as well.

I don't take much notice of those brokers/analysts, they always seem to be too optimistic and are pushing their own barrows.

One very learned broker/analyst around the middle of 2010 said he thought the All Ords would reach 6300 by the end of 2010.

Seriously? yeah, right.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Watching 3820 for a bounce.  BHP maybe.
> 
> Actually it's going to bounce now.




Largely un noticed but this was an amazing call.
Its actually killed my cat!


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Now I find it handy to take a snap shot of what leaps when sentiment bounces.


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

Only one word... Stunning. 

I think this is the market (and those earlier-rising East coast US traders) fronting running the Fed for tonight.

The question remains whether Benny B pulls out a bazooka or just a water pistol.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

notting said:


> Now I find it handy to take a snap shot of what leaps when sentiment bounces.




Watch those in *GREEN* on this list

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=ax


----------



## lenny (9 August 2011)

I think Benny B out of bullets.

Rates are at 0% and QE3 would risk further reratings, As the ratings agencies warned they must REDUCE their debt.

Positive words just won't cut it this time i think, could be an interesting session tonight.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

> The question remains whether Benny B pulls out a bazooka or just a water pistol.



Yeah, I just hope he doesn't blow is foot off like Obama did last night!


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

I only wish trading conditions were this good every day.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I only wish trading conditions were this good every day.



 Yeah, That was awesome fun.


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

notting said:


> Yeah, That was awesome fun.




haha. wow.

insane.

What happens tomorrow now..

Any hint of positive direction changes my attitude.

But who knows. Green today doesnt mean green tomorrow.

Also Notting- Fun to watch or were you trading?


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> haha. wow.
> 
> insane.
> 
> ...




The guys a watcher.


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

notting said:


> Yeah, That was awesome fun.




Been trading the Hong Kong futures, has now moved over 1000 points off the bottom


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I only wish trading conditions were this good every day.




+1

Shorts were like printing your own money today

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## baby_swallow (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I only wish trading conditions were this good every day.




don't you worry about that....
i think there's more fireworks to come.....
that big kahuna US capitulation volume is yet to come....
in the meantime, just have a little sip of your champagne...


----------



## alexc2005 (9 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> +1
> 
> Shorts were like printing your own money today
> 
> ...




Congrats.

Wish i had the balls to pull the trigger on some good prices.


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Been trading the Hong Kong futures, has now moved over 1000 points off the bottom




Panic selling, panic buying... daytrader's manna, or not, as the case may be.

Certainly the range offers opportunities.


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> +1
> 
> Shorts were like printing your own money today
> 
> ...




It wasn't the shorts that made my day it was the longs off the bottom that made for truly great trading, not often the SPI moves 250+ points or the HSI moves 1000+ points in a session.

Stuffed up my trades on a few ASX20 stocks though, got shaken out of the trades just before the bottom, oh well can't win them all.


----------



## Liar's Poker (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> The guys a watcher.




On the topic of watches. I bought a Casio Databank the other day. I was purchasing a 'binary' watch and saw a 1980's databank out the corner of my eye, so I felt obliged to buy them both.

-Liar-


----------



## LifeChoices (9 August 2011)

http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Panic selling, panic buying... *daytrader's manna, or not, as the case may be.*




lol, ain't that the truth! Plenty of opportunity to make dough or seriously get burnt on the futures today.


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> It wasn't the shorts that made my day it was the longs off the bottom that made for truly great trading, not often the SPI moves 250+ points or the HSI moves 1000+ points in a session.




Yuuuuuup!!!!

Trading Aikido required... and cajones.


----------



## Dowdy (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> The question remains whether Benny B pulls out a bazooka or just a water pistol.





Whatever he does, as soon as he opens his mouth, watch the DOW drop.


He's the best contrarian indicator.  Whatever he says, do the opposite


----------



## RexBudman (9 August 2011)

This afternoon showed a very decent gain, though not from its original open. Early afternoon showed All Ords down by $190 approx, and closed off $40 in gain this afternoon. $40 is miniscule, though it is $40 gain on top of the already set loss of $190.

Top 5 in Energy sectors recieved some gains, though CNA being exempt from this as yesterdays session showed almost  $20 gain on their stocks making for good profits.

Perhaps some calm finally about to hit the markets? Panic selling for no reason has left it in shambles, but a glimmer of hope remains with todays gain, hoping it will lead to further gains bringing the market back up to irs ogirinal position as of a week ago before the crash.

FOMC meeting tonight so I hope some good news to come... Though Barack recons USA is still the _safest_ market out there


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Though Barack recons USA is still the _safest_ market out there




Oh HOHOHOHOHOHOHO!

AH..HAHAHHAHHAHAHA!

Obarmy the comedian... who'da thunk it?


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

> Also Notting- Fun to watch or were you trading?




I was trading and that's why it was fun.
But I always assume the worst, so am expecting worse and just trading to my long plan. No heroics! Unless there is something sooo obvious, which isn't heroic, it's like a bully kicking someone when their down!

When I feel great trading I make myself feel bad, when I feel bad try to make myself 
feel good when trading. That was just a good afternoon.  This morning is the theme until we're well out of here as far as I'm concerned.

I don't know what the hell happened behind the scenes but I'd say some little high security emergency plan stratergy went running through government and big banking ranks and we may or may not find out what that was. I was looking at the vision of little Swanny on TV marching down some isle this morning he had something on his plate and he didn't looked panicked or Grey that was interesting.

CBA lowers interest rates.  That was really an interestesting phenomina. Perhaps their getting so much money from cashing out Bears that they don't need to lend from overseas any more and they all topped up their share portfolios with the cash  Roar


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> Only one word... Stunning.






nomore4s said:


> I only wish trading conditions were this good every day.




Just thought I'd share a commemorative screen shot of my account today... 




I am so tired. I haven't concentrate that hard for that long for a long time. And that's following bedtime at 3am last night...


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> It wasn't the shorts that made my day it was the longs off the bottom that made for truly great trading, not often the SPI moves 250+ points or the HSI moves 1000+ points in a session.
> 
> Stuffed up my trades on a few ASX20 stocks though, got shaken out of the trades just before the bottom, oh well can't win them all.




I have to admit I didn't trade the long's, (even though my analysis said 3800 for the bounce) just took some *healthy* profits out of my short positions when my stop's got triggered.  Still more volatility to trade in the coming days - the ride is not over yet.

Oh and I won free beer on my call where the XJO was going to end up. 

Cheers
Sir O


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> Just thought I'd share a commemorative screen shot of my account today...
> 
> View attachment 43917
> 
> ...




That's pretty decent SKC....after some sums...

I had a 19.48% profit on total account size, or a 56.48% return on own funds. 

Love this market ATM

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> Just thought I'd share a commemorative screen shot of my account today...
> 
> View attachment 43917
> 
> ...




hahah, well done, got you covered: only just though, tbh I didn't trade as well as I would have liked, could've been a lot better if I was more switched on. Might even have a beer tonight now.

PS - That is in HKD


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> hahah, well done, got you covered only just though, tbh I didn't trade as well as I would have liked, could've been a lot better if I was more switched on. Might even have a beer tonight now.
> 
> PS - That is in HKD




I was going to brag about my off market earnings today... but happy that i waited for the competition's efforts.

I will be having a beer, but you be sure to have an extra high quality beer (not that Aussie shyte) after that effort.


----------



## Muschu (9 August 2011)

Julia said:


> You seem to rather be admonishing Sails for her comment, Rick.  I don't see where she has 'sat in cash consistently' or where she's suggesting anyone else should do so.  As a very experienced options trader, I'd be surprised if she had....
> .




In relation to Sails, Julia, I was commenting on the "lol" add-on only -- and didn't see the need / reason for it.  I apologise to her if she read any other inferences into the rest of my post.

That "rest" was an observation about a range of posts which have impressed me as unhelpful and implicitly critical.

As I have said before, typing words onto a screen is an incomplete communication process.  

Best wishes

Rick


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> hahah, well done, got you covered: only just though, tbh I didn't trade as well as I would have liked, could've been a lot better if I was more switched on. Might even have a beer tonight now.
> 
> PS - That is in HKD




Nice! I won't show u the screen shot of my ES put options that I bought on 28 July :

Or the gold futures that got stopped out $100 ago


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> That's pretty decent SKC....after some sums...
> 
> I had a 19.48% profit on total account size, or a 56.48% return on own funds.
> 
> ...




Lol what I didn't show is of course my account size. If my account is ~$50m that's just the interest for the day 

Whilst I am enjoying this craziness I hope it pause for a couple of days... I have been staying up late too much.

P.S. World realised that China inflation figures are terrible... everything is retracing now.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 August 2011)

I'm pretty sure that's the biggest intra-day range since 1987.  Massive lower wick.

I'm interested in how the FTSE goes tonight; whether these riots will have an impact.  Huge numbers of people arrested, mostly Africans and Turks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-14450248


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Jesus. Faber reckons US government bonds are the short of the century. Don't tell China!


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm pretty sure that's the biggest intra-day range since 1987.  Massive lower wick.



With AS and X in it's title and it's cheapness perhaps it mistook itself for a pr0n shop.
That reminds me what did cash converters do today?
I hope it's still there. I may need it to assist with some leveraging.


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> It wasn't the shorts that made my day it was the longs off the bottom that made for truly great trading, not often the SPI moves 250+ points or the HSI moves 1000+ points in a session.
> 
> Stuffed up my trades on a few ASX20 stocks though, got shaken out of the trades just before the bottom, oh well can't win them all.




In the time it took me to bath my baby, the HSI moved almost another 1000 points... this time back down.

Unbelievable.


----------



## Dowdy (9 August 2011)

notting said:


> Jesus. Faber reckons US government bonds are the short of the century. Don't tell China!




Do you have the clip?

I love listening to Marc Faber. He said a few months ago he was shorting ANZ and as usual, he was right

He did say lately the market was oversold so might bounce in the short term


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Dowdy said:


> Do you have the clip?




Only got this http://www.cnbc.com/id/44068961


----------



## nomore4s (9 August 2011)

skc said:


> In the time it took me to bath my baby, the HSI moved almost another 1000 points... this time back down.
> 
> Unbelievable.




Hahaha, spewing I shut up shop early to walk the dog then. Will log on and have a look.

What an amazing day!

Tell you what though if the good ole US of A has another stinker tonight (although I think it will finish in the green but you never know) it could be pretty ugly for the ASX tomorrow considering the strength of today's rally.


----------



## sails (9 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> In relation to Sails, Julia, I was commenting on the "lol" add-on only -- and didn't see the need / reason for it.  I apologise to her if she read any other inferences into the rest of my post.
> 
> That "rest" was an observation about a range of posts which have impressed me as unhelpful and implicitly critical.
> 
> ...




You are right, Rick, given the severity of the down move, I shouldn't have added the lol.  I think I wrote that a couple of days ago when it wasn't quite so dramatic and it wasn't intended as a spiteful thing. It's not easy having super mainly in cash when the markets are travelling up and others are crowing about their gains.  So, the lol was probably more a sense of relief that the funds were safe and some justification for putting up with the lesser gains during the market's uptrend.

 But being in cash is also due to some pretty difficult family issues which are taking up a lot of my time (and have done so for some time now) we decided to keep our SMSF in cash given the economic climate and the reasonable interest rates on offer, and to take the pressure from me to manage it.  I still trade options directionally if I want to participate in a directional move. I had a hunch to buy puts on 1st August (big up day in a down trend), but didn't have my usual charts or any other info up to date, so decided not to do anything on a hunch alone....  But that's trading.

So, my apologies for any insensitivity to others struggling in this market.  But, it might also show newbies that one doesn't have to be in the market all the time either.


----------



## skc (9 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Hahaha, spewing I shut up shop early to walk the dog then. Will log on and have a look.
> 
> What an amazing day!
> 
> Tell you what though if the good ole US of A has another stinker tonight (although I think it will finish in the green but you never know) it could be pretty ugly for the ASX tomorrow considering the strength of today's rally.




The market seems to spin quicker these days.

The US debt ceiling deal I'd expect to generate a 2-day rally. That lasted only the morning.

The ECB intervention I'd expect to spark a 2-day rally. The European futures rally only lasted 2 hours.

After the rapid fall on ASX you would expect a few days relief.... but it might be just this afternoon. The XJO futures already down ~50pts from close.

The test tongiht, again, will be what sort of stuff Uncle Ben pulls out of his ar$e. But it's not looking good for that to last too long either. 

The announcement is at 4am our time... I might go to sleep now.


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

> The announcement is at 4am our time... I might go to sleep now.



I've barely slept in three days.  It's all to exciting at the moment.  Like a football game that just doesn't end.
Exept in my own tears maybe.  London Riots. Hard for it to be up tonight.  Go USA.  Although I'd like more shananigans for more buying over a longer time frame. But not allied riots.


----------



## RexBudman (9 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> That's pretty decent SKC....after some sums...
> 
> I had a 19.48% profit on total account size, or a 56.48% return on own funds.
> 
> ...




How the heck did you do that?


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2011)

Another cat dead before it even hit the dirt.


----------



## WhoToTrust (9 August 2011)

Greetings all, first post!

Had to finally make account as have been stalking thread, and I read this:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44054257/

Jim Rogers stating USA already bankrupt.

Apparently more bears are needed.


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2011)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...market-forecasts/story-e6frg926-1226111623790

Not encouraging.


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

No more 4s 
Great effort
trying to catch you on the FTSE long 
For a while now.

Doubt Ill get there with only a couple of contracts.


----------



## Muschu (9 August 2011)

sails said:


> .....It's not easy having super mainly in cash when the markets are travelling up and others are crowing about their gains....
> But being in cash is also due to some pretty difficult family issues which are taking up a lot of my time.....
> So, my apologies for any insensitivity to others struggling in this market.  But, it might also show newbies that one doesn't have to be in the market all the time either.




I hope my abbreviations of your wonderfully open post are OK Sails.....  There are many issues far more important than the market or money.... and family is certainly one of  those.  If I have been insensitive in any way myself then I am sincerely sorry.  You sound like a fabulous person and one who has priorities in the right order.

Very best wishes

Rick


----------



## tech/a (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> No more 4s
> Great effort
> trying to catch you on the FTSE long
> For a while now.
> ...




Not even close but $2.5k for a few hrs I'm not complaining---




Time to socialize.
Night.


----------



## jbocker (9 August 2011)

Well.. at the end of the day I just sit and think WTF was that all about. Such a drop and then a recovery and stocks ending up positive. For instance watched Woodside drop $3 then recover to be up $1.
What is gonna happen if the Dow slides big time again tonight?


----------



## xplosion (9 August 2011)

Markets were crazy, I bought in the morning to sell later on, only to see it get lower. Sold the shares only to see them spruce up in the arvo . Also stuck with a few positions overnight, yikes


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 August 2011)

xplosion said:


> Markets were crazy, I bought in the morning to sell later on, only to see it get lower. Sold the shares only to see them spruce up in the arvo . Also stuck with a few positions overnight, yikes



I ditched stocks and have been trading the DJIA, FTSE, DAX and XJO since last week. Dealing with fear or when to take profit takes on a whole new perspective with immediacy.


----------



## moXJO (9 August 2011)

Any ideas as to what caused the sudden turn around?


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2011)

Speculation of another large drop from helicopter Ben was one thing.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...ch-qe3-rogoff-20110809-1ikfh.html?from=smh_sb

US futures are currently swinging wildly.


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 August 2011)

moXJO said:


> Any ideas as to what caused the sudden turn around?



 Selling exhausted.

At that moment.


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> At that moment.



I'm wondering whether the Fed will announce something prior to the US markets opening.


----------



## moXJO (9 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> US futures are currently swinging wildly.




They are swinging hard, should be a good night


----------



## So_Cynical (9 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> I'm not trying to be a hero. Its very hard however, for me to accept a 22% loss on my shares.
> 
> Sigh




And so it should be hard for you to take the loss...successfully trading anything requires you to generally sell XXX for more that you paid for it, and any strategy that requires you to take losses needs to be understood and accepted in its entirety.

Think about it...there's a time to sell and a time to buy...what time was it today?


----------



## Dowdy (9 August 2011)

Futures indicate a 100+ point upswing tonight. It'll probably end up neutral once Ben opens his mouth


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> I'm wondering whether the Fed will announce something prior to the US markets opening.



FOMC statement is due at 4.15am.


----------



## Kryzz (9 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Not even close but $2.5k for a few hrs I'm not complaining---
> 
> View attachment 43927
> 
> ...




Tech, It seems you've moved toward trading intraday over recent times (or, more so), is this because of current market conditions not favouring systems trading etc? 

Or simply more profit potential, is your intraday trades still technically motivated, VSA etc? If your making that sort of cash one can obviously understand the attraction.

Cheers





Dowdy said:


> Futures indicate a 100+ point upswing tonight. It'll probably end up neutral once Ben opens his mouth




Seems green across the board, Germany seems to be getting hammered more than other indicies for whatever reason?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 August 2011)

Massive, massive...massive volatility. It would be interesting if 4000 became the new resistance. I wonder what proportion of the sales are foreign investors pulling out because our currency has depreciated against the USD In the last week


----------



## notting (9 August 2011)

Kryzz said:


> Seems green across the board, Germany seems to be getting hammered more than other indicies for whatever reason?



 They don't like bailing out Euroland Every second week!
Merkyl may get fed up an grow a little mow.


----------



## vkdirector (9 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> Another cat dead before it even hit the dirt.





And back again


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

What did Ben have in that water pistol?
Maybe it had a needle on the end of it.
Not much of a reaction, then suddenly Europhorio
Or was it just me?
The cat lives.  For another day.
Looks like the banks had a good afternoon yesterday buying up all the shares with Bear money pooring into short term fixed interest accounts.
Now their encouraging everyone to throw it back into shares by cutting interest rates.
We shorting today?


----------



## sails (10 August 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Massive, massive...massive volatility. It would be interesting if 4000 became the new resistance. I wonder what proportion of the sales are foreign investors pulling out because our currency has depreciated against the USD In the last week




That's right, find any excuse but the carbon tax...


----------



## skc (10 August 2011)

notting said:


> What did Ben have in that water pistol?
> Maybe it had a needle on the end of it.
> Not much of a reaction, then suddenly Europhorio
> Or was it just me?
> ...




Another crazy night... the range of SPX was 80 handles. DAX swinged up and down 8%. If this isn't a sign of a healthy market I don't know what is. 

And Ben pulled out the most impressive weapon of all. Not QE3, but the prospect of QE3....


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

skc said:


> And Ben pulled out the most impressive weapon of all. Not QE3, but the prospect of QE3....



Perfectly PUT!


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (10 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> How the heck did you do that?




All my long positions got stopped out several days ago.  I only had short positions open (about 12 trades), mind you the massive volatility we had yesterday closed out all but one, which looks like it'll stop out this morning... I just hope it doesn't gap up on me 

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 August 2011)

A lot of up-gapping stocks this morning, as you'd expect, but on _very low_ opening volumes, which doesn't augur well.  I'm not sure we'll get much past 4120 today.


----------



## samanne1 (10 August 2011)

As nice as yesterday might have looked, one could hardly say a new uptrend is beginning...

... waiting patiently.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 August 2011)

sorry, meant 4*2*20.  Obviously 4120 was only 20 points ahead of yesterday's close.


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2011)

Does anyone "really" know where this market is going?  I certainly don't!  Is this just another snapback?  
A few days ago we had massive gloom predicted by a number of posters... Are those predictions still in force?


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

How glad I am i didn't exit at down 23% yesterday.

Just wish i had the spare money to dump in.

See what payday brings me and i'll wait out for more opportunities .

Happy trading all.

P.S. Not sure if anyone noticed but OZL temporarily dropped to 1.56 instead of 11.50 ish, not sure what happened there but i better go change my undies.


----------



## skyQuake (10 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Does anyone "really" know where this market is going?  I certainly don't!  Is this just another snapback?
> A few days ago we had massive gloom predicted by a number of posters... Are those predictions still in force?




A legit week long rally probably.

Though today is all about fading imo


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> How glad I am i didn't exit at down 23% yesterday.
> 
> Just wish i had the spare money to dump in.
> 
> ...




Your a very slow learner Alex.
Your looking at Profit profit profit

Where as the astute would be looking at Risk mitigation.
Ah well we all must learn the hard way.

*Rick* in answer to your question.

This is another bandaid repair job on a very shaky economic environment.
The rejection of the low was damned impressive.The highest point reversal in history.
What we need to see is what the market does after volatility dies down.
In the next few days we will see if this demand is temporary (Which I feel it is) or more sustained (which everyone is thinking it is--myself excluded).

I will either be joining the herd or they will be joining me in a few days.
I have no intentions of attempting to be a hero.
Opportunities will always present themselves *WITHOUT the risk*.

*YOU MAY TAKE NOTE*

That currently many stocks are off their opening buy price.
So as I suspect rallies will be met by supply who are thanking their lucky stars!!


----------



## stacks (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> How glad I am i didn't exit at down 23% yesterday.
> 
> Just wish i had the spare money to dump in.
> 
> ...




I think this is a common thought - get back in, quick, but then I remember reading something on Monday that was also said



alexc2005 said:


> Defnitely should have taken losses this morning.




Be interesting to see if this is said again in the next week. How much has really changed? since Monday ?

Unless your nimble enough to move quickly, and you know where to move to, will probably be some more anxious moments. But when? who knows


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2011)

Thanks Tech -- I am just watching as the mystery unfolds and a moe sustained direction becomes apparent.

Rick


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

Yeah, good points guys.

Very good points.

It's hard not to get my hopes up when i am looking at green for once.

But yes, you're 100% right, i really should and have been considering taking some losses this week. I am just keeping an eye on it all and will make the decision when i see fit.

As for dumping money in, thats hindsight talking. Even if i had the money i doubt i would have had the balls  to jump in yesterday when i was sitting there looking at 23% loss.

My emotions towards the sharemarket are as much a rollercoaster as the sharemarket itself.


----------



## againsthegrain (10 August 2011)

we will see how high this dead cat bounces


----------



## adt100 (10 August 2011)

Conversations make me concerned that a low isn't in. Market is not usually so nice as to give out so little pain (relatively speaking). Further downside to shake the Alex's out yet I think. 

On the other hand yesterday was impressive and had all the classic signs of capitulation. Interesting to see how this plays out in the next few weeks. No strong down side moves and a sideways to drift lower market would give me some confidence.

Returns very high along with risk right now. I will wait until returns still very good but risk has dropped off a lot. Time will tell


----------



## Kauri (10 August 2011)

Does anyone have any idea what fuelled the rally? The biggest turn-around I and possibly many others have seen. Bernanke says rates will not move for 18 months or so .. which I would have thought was a damming indictment of the US economy, or at least his view of it currently. The dow immediately sells off for an hour or so, then takes off and heads for the heavens, possibly following the bond market??.  

  Before I get castigated by the masses and get told not to worry about the reasons and just trade the charts, what you see etc, *that is what I do*, I am merely curious about what actually inspired it, (PPT and other American conspiracy theories aside).

  Personally for my longer term trading I am standing aside to see if there is enough fuel in the tank to mantain the run or if it was a last powerful sputter before the tank runs dry.

  Good trading to all, which ever side you dress  ...

  Cheers
.............  kauri


----------



## nomore4s (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> My emotions towards the sharemarket are as much a rollercoaster as the sharemarket itself.




That's because you have no plan or idea of where you are going so every-time the market swings so do your emotions.

Might be time to sit out and educate yourself?


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

To state the obvious.
We need to whatch the volumes on the rallies. 
If they are week then the cruel mistress may be winding back to deliver her sucker punch.
It's not like Euroland is no longer a cause for concern  to understate - they can't print yet.


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> That's because you have no plan or idea of where you are going so every-time the market swings so do your emotions.
> 
> Might be time to sit out and educate yourself?




This is actually what i have been considering at the moment.


----------



## nomore4s (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> This is actually what i have been considering at the moment.




The market will always be there but you need to be equipped to deal with it.


----------



## drsmith (10 August 2011)

vkdirector said:


> And back again
> 
> View attachment 43933



That's just the electrodes that makes it look like its moving.

Intermittent didn't do the job, so someone maxed the charge near the close of trade and left it on overnight.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> Does anyone have any idea what fuelled the rally? The biggest turn-around I and possibly many others have seen. Bernanke says rates will not move for 18 months or so .. which I would have thought was a damming indictment of the US economy, or at least his view of it currently. The dow immediately sells off for an hour or so, then takes off and heads for the heavens, possibly following the bond market??.
> 
> Before I get castigated by the masses and get told not to worry about the reasons and just trade the charts, what you see etc, *that is what I do*, I am merely curious about what actually inspired it, (PPT and other American conspiracy theories aside).
> 
> ...






A butterfly in the Amazon forest mate,

A butterfly.

gg


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> This is actually what i have been considering at the moment.




What were you planning when you baught?  
The plan is what should hold your hand when fear strikes! 
Keep it in mind. If you don't have a plan
Maybe listen to your Dad till then!
The market can make you a total mental case. Will make you feel like yesterday morning till it has all your money!
It's not a giver it's a taker.
Look at all the bears here!  
They have eaten all the bulls!  Accept for a few Really Fat Ones.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (10 August 2011)

Kauri said:


> Does anyone have any idea what fuelled the rally? The biggest turn-around I and possibly many others have seen. Bernanke says rates will not move for 18 months or so .. which I would have thought was a damming indictment of the US economy, or at least his view of it currently. The dow immediately sells off for an hour or so, then takes off and heads for the heavens, possibly following the bond market??.
> 
> Before I get castigated by the masses and get told not to worry about the reasons and just trade the charts, what you see etc, *that is what I do*, I am merely curious about what actually inspired it, (PPT and other American conspiracy theories aside).
> 
> ...




My speculative reason is that US investors think it highly likely that keeping interest rates between 0-0.25% by the Fed will not be enough to stimulate the US economy and Uncle Ben will need to crank up the printing presses again in the near future.

I'm still staying out of the market for the present and reading through the reports being released to work out my strategy going forward.


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

notting said:


> What were you planning when you baught?
> The plan is what should hold your hand when fear strikes!
> Keep it in mind. If you don't have a plan
> Maybe listen to your Dad till then!
> ...




My plan from the start was:

Deploy capital into companies that have:

A good history of performance
A good amount of assets with minimal debt
Good results and findings

A prime example of this is AUT.

And my plan has been so far, to hold on to them longer term and reap any rewards.

There is only one share i have that i bought for short term fun and that was a fail. I could have bailed out with profit but i got greedy.

My plan has been to hold all these shares till about nov/dec and bail out into the housing market. 

Obviously selling along the way if opportunities presented themselves. But the one reason i haven't sold yet is similar to the reason i didnt sell when AUT was at 3.40. Because i believe that the company will succeed long term.

I probably sound like a bit of a douche from my posts in this thread. But I'm sure you can all see it from the point of view of a young enthusiastic trader getting burnt and not knowing what to do.

Lessons Learnt.


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

Well if oil keeps tanking your plan just might work.
Check back at Christmas. You've rolled the dice!
Good luck.


----------



## littleshire (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> My plan from the start was:
> 
> Deploy capital into companies that have:
> 
> ...




AUT quick review:
A good history of performance - only made a profit once in the last 10 years
A good amount of assets with minimal debt - negative Earnings and cash flow, debt coverage negative
Good results and findings - exploration companies are a gamble, there is no way to quantify good results here

It looks like you are gambling.

Normally how it works is like this: someone goes into the stock market, makes a few trades and ends up with a profit (looks easy doesn't it), then a string of losses follows as a preparation for the final act, that is the market ending up in a bearish orgy of red while the Beethoven's 5th Symphony plays in the background lol... the result: the wannabe trader ends up in deep sh*t.

The bottom line is: it takes a minimum of 2 years and a major drop to develop a wining strategy, look at it this way, it is like paying for a hands on training course.

If you believe that you have what it takes to win then go for it, the rewards will be handsome one day.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (10 August 2011)

notting said:


> To state the obvious.
> We need to whatch the volumes on the rallies.
> If they are week then the cruel mistress may be winding back to deliver her sucker punch.
> It's not like Euroland is no longer a cause for concern  to understate - they can't print yet.




How many of you are aware of the Vickers Insiders Reports?

This is an interesting methodology to ascertain buying volumes amongst those that should know the economic future of the various companies...IE those that WORK inside the company.

The report details industry and market wide ratio's of buyers to sellers that fit within the category of "inside".

It's copywrite material so can't post it here...but worthwhile in looking at.

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> AUT quick review:
> A good history of performance - only made a profit once in the last 10 years
> A good amount of assets with minimal debt - negative Earnings and cash flow, debt coverage negative
> Good results and findings - exploration companies are a gamble, there is no way to quantify good results here
> ...




When is sharetrading not a gamble?

Banks maybe?

But then again, i got a broker recommendation to buy ANZ at a cheap $22.

Not so cheap now is it?

As long as i learn from this, I'm happy.

As i said I'm only 22, I have a long time ahead of me to mature as a trader and as a researcher.

Just wondering if this really is a dead cat bounce or not.

Seems to be positive sentiment for the rest of the week. But I can't really tell.


----------



## skc (10 August 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> My speculative reason is that US investors think it highly likely that keeping interest rates between 0-0.25% by the Fed will not be enough to stimulate the US economy and Uncle Ben will need to crank up the printing presses again in the near future.
> 
> I'm still staying out of the market for the present and reading through the reports being released to work out my strategy going forward.




That's my read as well, although I think the market was as confused as I was last night (nothing to do with the fact that I was up at 4:15am).

If the Fed announced QE3 last night, the market would be slaughtered if the package was too small. On the other hand, the bond market would be slaughtered if the package was a huge shock and awe - the Chinese might actually reduce their bond buying and that will scare the bananas out of everyone.

So instead the Fed went the cleaver way. Rather than show you a weapon and risk it not having the desired effect (Chinese to Fed: You call that a stimulus package? This is a stimulus package! (Picture a Chinese guy with accent wearing a dundee hat)), the Fed says "We've got plenty of weapons. Try us."

And all the bears ran away as quickly as they could. For now.


----------



## skc (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> My plan from the start was:
> 
> Deploy capital into companies that have:
> 
> ...




My plan for me to become a masterchef is to:

- Cook dishes that are delicious 
- Plate them up like an expert 
- Cook from the heart

Well. Great plan, but not actionable.


----------



## littleshire (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> When is sharetrading not a gamble?



I’ll give you a reply based on my strategy; every trader is different so there you go.
Let’s illustrate this with an example, let assume your parents give you their house as a gift, it is a nice house with water views and independent valuators value it at 1 million. The problem is there is a single real estate agent town, and he announces its price in front of your house every second from 10am to 4pm and offers you to buy your house for some X amount, or to sell you a similar one for the same X amount.
Now, most of the time, the price is close to your valuation so you live in there comfortable knowing that all is all right. The problem is, the guy drinks a lot and when he does he comes offering you ridiculous high or low prices depending on his mood, this doesn’t happen every day of course, but it does from time to time.
You can outsmart this guy, can’t you? The plan is simple, when he is pricing your house ridiculous low, you buy houses from him, when he does the opposite you sell. As simple as this sounds, the inner workings of our brain makes this very hard to achieve in practice, very hard but not impossible that is.
*short answer: it not a gamble when you know how much your stocks are worth.*


alexc2005 said:


> Banks maybe?



I will stay away from banks, they are over exposed to a high level of private borrowings at the moment.


alexc2005 said:


> Just wondering if this really is a dead cat bounce or not.
> Seems to be positive sentiment for the rest of the week. But I can't really tell.



All my indicators tell me there is volatility ahead. Too hard to tell at this stage, having said that, I have been accumulating for the last 3-4 days.


----------



## Kauri (10 August 2011)

For those who follow that the market usually fills any gaps: I notice most shares now have gaps both above and below following the past couple of days, which ones will be filled first, if at all, those above or those further down?

 Cheers
..........  Kauri


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

> When is share trading not a gamble?




When you understand *RISK*and
Positive expectancy.

When you dont care how the market Gyrates
and you treat it as a business.
You know *WHY* your trading *WILL* return you a nett profit over time.

Your right----right now your gambling and your *NOT* alone.


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

> *short answer: it not a gamble when you know how much your stocks are worth.*





Still very much a gamble.
"Knowing" is an opinion.---everyone has one--very few match--thats why stock moves either way!
It isnt an edge.
You dont have risk mitigation for the situations where your valuation which is undervalued today---becomes tommorows *MARKET* opinion of *OVERVALUED*.

Most hold becuase--*THEIR* valuation is of course correct and the market clearly has it wrong.

*JUST GO LOOK AT THE PEN THREAD!*

PEN has been UNDERVALUED from 16c to 5c---according to one very experienced Fundamentalist.

A lot to wade through but worth the read.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=89


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2011)

DOW futures currently down 35.....  An expression of confusion?


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> DOW futures currently down 35.....  An expression of confusion?




are the futures markets a direct prediction of what will happen?

E.g. ASX futures are at 4108 atm.
Does that mean assuming we close at say 4200, tommorow is expected to drop to 4108?

Not sure how it works? Maybe here isn't the best place to ask...


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> DOW futures currently down 35.....  An expression of confusion?


----------



## littleshire (10 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Still very much a gamble.
> "Knowing" is an opinion.---everyone has one--very few match--thats why stock moves either way!
> It isnt an edge.
> You dont have risk mitigation for the situations where your valuation which is undervalued today---becomes tommorows *MARKET* opinion of *OVERVALUED*.
> ...




I don't know about your strategy Duck, but I use the following mitigation mechanisms:
- margin of safety
- diversification
- continuous (ongoing) valuations and review of my portfolio.
For what I have seen (and I have been doing this for a few years), a few winners make the whole exercise worth it.


----------



## nomore4s (10 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> are the futures markets a direct prediction of what will happen?
> 
> E.g. ASX futures are at 4108 atm.
> Does that mean assuming we close at say 4200, tommorow is expected to drop to 4108?
> ...




Here are some threads to look into which may help answer you question.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/search.php?searchid=318469

If you have more questions just post it in one of those threads.


----------



## nomore4s (10 August 2011)

Not so enjoyable today:


----------



## skyQuake (10 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> - diversification




I doubt diversification does much compared to say 20 years ago.

Too many index bots (and pairs traders) :


----------



## againsthegrain (10 August 2011)

Nice one tech


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2011)

I just tweeked it a bit.


----------



## kid hustlr (10 August 2011)

My god there has been some awesome responses in this thread over the last couple of days.


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I just tweeked it a bit.
> 
> View attachment 43948


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

In rare stroke of luck I have managed to find a picture of *ALEX* yesterday.


----------



## VSntchr (10 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In rare stroke of luck I have managed to find a picture of *ALEX* yesterday.
> 
> 
> View attachment 43951




LOL


----------



## skc (10 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Not so enjoyable today:




Yesterday was stunning... today? EPIC. When markets snap back all the pairs also snap back with vengence.




Did lose a few $K open profit last night on my puts... they should come good I think/hope/pray.



skyQuake said:


> I doubt diversification does much compared to say 20 years ago.
> 
> Too many index bots (and pairs traders) :




Hey! Don't put me in the same camp as the bots!



tech/a said:


> *JUST GO LOOK AT THE PEN THREAD!*
> 
> PEN has been UNDERVALUED from 16c to 5c---according to one very experienced Fundamentalist.




That fundamentalist is also quite optimistic. The key is to get the analysis right, be conservative and look for trouble. My optimistic valuation of PEN is 6c before Fukushima, and untouchable after.


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

> Tech, It seems you've moved toward trading intraday over recent times (or, more so), is this because of current market conditions not favouring systems trading etc?
> 
> Or simply more profit potential, is your intraday trades still technically motivated, VSA etc? If your making that sort of cash one can obviously understand the attraction.
> 
> Cheers




*Shaun.*

I still portfolio trade but not the mechanical systems I traded a few years ago.
They still work fine but Ive managed to achieve better returns  discretionary trading.
I have noticed though that in $$ terms it is a lot less as I am not trading with as much for as long and not compounding the winnings. Mind you a 2002-2007 bull run isnt around either.---which is when I sat on techtrader for 4yrs.

A few years ago I discovered Index Futures and have finally settled on FTSE---dont mind the DAX and must have a look at HSI.Once you know the beast they are good earners and trade reasonable hrs.

*As for Analysis.*My portfolio trades use a number of scans set around a suped up Techtrader search.
Yes I definately look for pullbacks in trends and have searches to specifically find the ones I want.
VSA and my own tweeks to VSA are a large part of my Futures trading. Yes they do form a part of my portfolio trading as well particularly if I see a runner and belt it.
TVN was the last one I remember.

I would gladly take the option of sitting $$s in a long term portfolio---but find and think that in THIS market and in the forseeable future longer term portfolio trading will be very difficult and frustrating as profits evaporate!

Im risk averse.
If I take care of RISK then Profits come---.
Im wrong often but not for long!!!


----------



## tech/a (10 August 2011)

skc said:


> Yesterday was stunning... today? EPIC. When markets snap back all the pairs also snap back with vengence.
> 
> View attachment 43953
> 
> ...




There are exceptions to every rule and you are one of them
Although I do think you have some technical input to your trading---is that right?

There are few Fundies I have anytime for---your on my Xmas list.


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

> In rare stroke of luck I have managed to find a picture of ALEX yesterday.



Fortunatly he has matured nicely from the exprerience


----------



## nomore4s (10 August 2011)

skc said:


> Yesterday was stunning... today? EPIC. When markets snap back all the pairs also snap back with vengence.
> 
> View attachment 43953
> 
> ...




Good work! No way can I compete with that even though I ended up having quite a good day with the arvo session of the HSI.


----------



## alexc2005 (10 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In rare stroke of luck I have managed to find a picture of *ALEX* yesterday.
> 
> 
> View attachment 43951




Thats me on a good hair day


----------



## notting (10 August 2011)

The ducks giving me nightmairs and I can't find my cat.
At least the futures are only 1% down. Looks like I might get a feed tomorrow.


----------



## skc (10 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Good work! No way can I compete with that even though I ended up having quite a good day with the arvo session of the HSI.




Thanks. The 2 days of complete mayhem put everything out of whack and today is the first real normal day for a while and was perfect for pairs trading. I even made money on dogs like HVN today...

I will post a screen shot when I get a daily loss of 5 figures just to show that it's not always sunshine and apple pies. Hopefully later rather than sooner.



tech/a said:


> There are exceptions to every rule and you are one of them
> Although I do think you have some technical input to your trading---is that right?
> 
> There are few Fundies I have anytime for---your on my Xmas list.




I use technical input to much of my trading but none in my funny position thread.

I also use fundamentals to complement technicals... chart looks good and posied for breakout and company is undervalued are good buys. Chart looks good with good fundamental news (that I can't actually value, but I view as positive) I will buy with a price stop.


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2011)

How unpredictable a world can it be ???  ... ... DOW futures now down 254... I'm off to bed but volatility suggests that DOW futures may be well off the mark... in either direction.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (10 August 2011)

sails said:


> That's right, find any excuse but the carbon tax...




Are you saying the carbon tax has anything to do with this? Rofl.


----------



## trading_rookie (11 August 2011)

US and Europe down...dead-cat bounce anyone? :eek

@doctorj



> For all the might and power of the Australian economy, it accounts for less than 1% of Global GDP. The EU accounts for around 26% of global GDP and the US around 23%.




...and hence my confusion, why did we take a 'double' dip compared to the rest last friday. If our markets were down 2%, fair enough, but a double whammy when really our house looks to be in better order than some others....as Swannie would say he goes to bed feeling great 'cause every other treasurer in the world would swap places with him in a hearbeat! :



> If people in the US and Europe don't shop as much in Walmart and Asda and they stop buying their big screen TVs etc, Japan and China stop buying Australia's rocks. Everything is interconnected and with only 22mm people, Australia is particularly dependant on the health of the global economy.




_Following is a question answered by economic Nobel prize winner Michael Spence, who incidently will be appearing or has appeared? this week at the National Press Gallery. Who also advises China on its growth strategy_

But doesn't China's sustained growth depend on the rest of the US and Europe in regard to recession?

Not any more, Spence says. "Right now the emerging economies that are trading with each other are self-sustaining. They can grow even if the major industrial powers just plug along.

"If you go back ten years that wouldn't have been possible. Weak growth in Europe or the United States of 1 or 2 per cent would have dented growth in China and associated emerging nations. But not now. China will become increasingly decoupled as time moves on. Its own emerging middle class will drive its own growth."


----------



## noirua (11 August 2011)

France and their banks are in trouble; denied by the banks and French government. So, that means they must be in trouble in these markets. 
A mixed picture following a people move increasingly to gold. Some Governments may have to unload their gold but China, India and Asia should grab all they can.
Gold touched very close to $1,800 per ounce in New York.
Copper, zinc, lead, nickel etc., are falling.
Will bank troubles in Europe necessarily hit Aussie banks very hard indeed, probably not, but a decline in the sector looks all but certain.
Country wise, basically, Italy, Spain and Portugal problems may cause Germany to exit the euro fairly shortly.


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

Uncle Sam? Can we borrow that machine for a little bit?

Wonder how Faber's US Bond short is traveling?


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

Aww sheeit- Another bloodbath on the cards?

Dow Jones down 520 points...

This is very interesting to watch, as painful as today may be.

I clicked the sell button a few times yesterday but didn't follow through.

Interesting to see what happens today. 

Time for some smart people to make some smart buys. I don't think I'll be buying just yet though. Not until the market stabilises a bit.


----------



## cynic (11 August 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A butterfly in the Amazon forest mate,
> 
> A butterfly.
> 
> gg




These moggies are getting murdered faster than I can breed their reinforcements.

Could you please provide GPS coordinates so that I can nuke that darned butterfly before it flatulates again and thereby necessitates the terminatation of my residual feline livestock!


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

"Oooooo. What was that?

I think I just ate my own testicles."


----------



## dutchie (11 August 2011)

Tuesdays low should not be taken out and a lot of gaps will be closed.

Down today, up tomorrow?


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

dutchie said:


> Tuesdays low should not be taken out and a lot of gaps will be closed.
> 
> Down today, up tomorrow?




Guess it's a buy then.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (11 August 2011)

noirua said:


> Country wise, basically, Italy, Spain and Portugal problems may cause Germany to exit the euro fairly shortly.




This would actually be the best thing for all parties, and would probably be very good for the world economy & stock markets. So I do hope it happens.


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 August 2011)

notting said:


> Guess it's a buy then.




Some might say "bye"....


----------



## G-Zilla (11 August 2011)

scary that the fed's adrenalin shot rally lasted for a day... QE3 here we come.

Here is an interesting video by the slipstream trader which explains a bit technically what some on here have been talking about:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lihs...&o=430645&s=434002&u=49513388&l=295474&r=Milo
(ignore they sell the service and stick with it we get to the ASX after the S&P)


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 August 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> This would actually be the best thing for all parties, and *would probably be very good for the world economy & stock markets*. So I do hope it happens.




I'd add one rider to that.... _eventually_.

Short-term, if that were to happen you could only guess how far some euro stock exchanges would plummet. 10%? 20%? 50%? Closed for business as traders feel too ill to attend?

It 's not all beer and skittles or so simplistic. If the PIIGS (major trading partners of France & Germany) are cut free to sink or swim, how long would it take them to devaluate their individual currencies and inflate their debts away to sustainable levels?

The mind boggles....

Good luck today for anyone trying to trade the swings....


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 August 2011)

G-Zilla said:


> scary that the fed's adrenalin shot rally lasted for a day... QE3 here we come.




They'll need a backup plan.

I know..!!

*QE4*



PS: Apologies for sticking my head outta tha cave, but some PIIGS stuck their a$$e$ inside & their fart$ stink!


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

There is no exhaustion followed by consolidation until we see that we cannot definitively call a bottom.

For the above to happen (In my view) there will need to be either
(1) a joint governments effort to bandaid up debt AGAIN
(2) governments take a long term view to stop debt and decrease it.

The third option is highly likely
(3) debt has passed the point of repair and we will find a re adjustment of financial economics world wide.

A long way DOWN

Unfortunately if (1) does occur it will just be delaying (3) and making (2) increasingly impossible.


----------



## indeck (11 August 2011)

ok dow down another 4.5% in overnight trade on EU debt concerns now.  Rewind a few months back and the same news would have likely caused a 1-2% drop in the DOW.  Seems to me its a massive over reaction unless im missing something.


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 August 2011)

Thank heavens the POO is rising sharply! At least our energy stocks won't get hammered as much...



> *Oil surged the most in three months in New York after U.S. crude supplies declined the most in a year and demand increased.
> 
> Futures rose as inventories fell to a five-month low and demand reached the highest level this year. Oil also gained on speculation that the Federal Reserve will take more action to bolster the economy after the Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero until mid-2013.* The dollar slipped to a one-week low against the euro yesterday after the announcement.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-on-fed-statement-iea-sees-risks-in-2012.html

Could get interesting for our inflation figures if the lil' Ozzie bleeder keeps falling and the POO keeps rising?


----------



## lenny (11 August 2011)

indeck said:


> ok dow down another 4.5% in overnight trade on EU debt concerns now.  Rewind a few months back and the same news would have likely caused a 1-2% drop in the DOW.  Seems to me its a massive over reaction unless im missing something.




Indeck, All the the hoo ha in the last couple a months have been in with regard to greece which is one of the smallest countrys in the EU.

The hoo ha in the last couple of weeks have been about the down grade of US/ Frances credit rating which is the biggest economy world and the second biggest economy in the EU (i think).

So the stakes are getting bigger!


----------



## Liar's Poker (11 August 2011)

lenny said:


> Indeck, All the the hoo ha in the last couple a months have been in with regard to greece which is one of the smallest countrys in the EU.
> 
> The hoo ha in the last couple of weeks have been about the down grade of US/ Frances credit rating which is the biggest economy world and the second biggest economy in the EU (i think).
> 
> So the stakes are getting bigger!




Correct.

By GDP for the EU, it is as follows:

1. Germany
2. France
3. United Kingdom
4. Italy
5. Spain
6. Russia
7. Netherlands
 and so on...

See trading economics for a more comprehensive overview - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

Lets just all default and start again. Tell China to f#$% itself.


----------



## Liar's Poker (11 August 2011)

On another note:

At 11:30pm EST tonight, the US releases its trade balance, initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data.

I'm not going to gamble on what this could do to the already volatile markets.


----------



## Liar's Poker (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Aww sheeit- Another bloodbath on the cards?
> 
> Dow Jones down 520 points...
> 
> ...




From Dante's 'Inferno',

In the midst of the path of my life
I found myself in a dark wood,
In which the right path was obscured.
I cannot express how hard it was
To find myself in this untamed forest,
So bitter and so tenacious was it
That the mere thought of it renews my terrors.

-Liar-


----------



## skc (11 August 2011)

G-Zilla said:


> scary that the fed's adrenalin shot rally lasted for a day... QE3 here we come.




It wasn't an adrenalin shot. It was a placebo tablet and the market swallowed it, thought it worked for a second and now spit it back out.



notting said:


> Lets just all default and start again. Tell China to f#$% itself.




That is probably the only real solution at this moment. The notion of a EU-wide European bond is just a big joke. Don't we remember what happened last time we bundled up a whole bunch of $hitty assets and slap a AAA rating on top? It was called the sub-prime crisis.

And what's after Euro Bond? Planet Earth bond? Last time I checked the little green Martians didn't have cash to invest.


----------



## investorpaul (11 August 2011)

A while ago I saw an article showing how much debt each Euro country owed to one another.

Therefore to reduce debt levels why can't all the countries that owe money to one another just cancel it out (the terms lenght of loan, interest rate may differ but hey there isnt really an alternative).

I.e. say Italy owes span $15bn but Spain owes Italy $10b

Why not just change it to say Italy now only owes Spain $5bn.

Do that throughout the whole Euro zone and everyones debt gets reduced. As a result interest payments come down saving each country money every year which can be put into further reducing debt.

P.S. talking public debt, not private debt where a Spanish Bank has lent an italtian some money to build a house.


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

Futures have had a pretty strong open.


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Futures have had a pretty strong open.




Covers??


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Covers??




Not sure, looks stronger then that. Be interesting when Asia opens.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

This is really interesting to watch.

It seems the 500 point drop on the dow didnt have the effect it had the other day. I think monday was a 600 point drop?

Maybe people aren't as scared as they were?

It's really quite interesting to watch. 

Have fun taking advantage of these volatile times people!!


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> This is really interesting to watch.
> 
> It seems the 500 point drop on the dow didnt have the effect it had the other day. I think monday was a 600 point drop?
> 
> ...




Looks like all the panic selling has been done for now.


----------



## 6figures (11 August 2011)

opened about 2% down.. 

and now market is pulling back?? alot of buyers over sellers on a few stocks..

interesting.. how is the asx pulling back??


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

Maybe all the people who panicked in the summer of 2009 have decided that company balance sheets are much more secure and are getting back in.
We have also underperformed for about 6 months. 
Get the Ausi $ down and where ripping.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

notting said:


> Maybe all the people who panicked in the summer of 2009 have decided that company balance sheets are much more secure and are getting back in.
> We have also underperformed for about 6months.
> Get the Ausi $ down and where ripping.




Those people would be smart people!

I'm happy watching and learning for now


----------



## VSntchr (11 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Looks like all the panic selling has been down for now.




For now it seems. This afternoon may be a different story


----------



## 6figures (11 August 2011)

notting said:


> Maybe all the people who panicked in the summer of 2009 have decided that company balance sheets are much more secure and are getting back in.
> We have also underperformed for about 6 months.
> Get the Ausi $ down and where ripping.




possibly.. 

it appears we have ignored the dead cat in the US ..

top up on strong companies with strong fundamentals...??

i think im going to be a spectator today .. i think we all know the dramatic difference in how the asx has opened compared to how it closes in the past few days.


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> For now it seems. This afternoon may be a different story



Well then start shorting!


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

Turn


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

6figures said:


> possibly..
> 
> it appears we have ignored the dead cat in the US ..
> 
> ...




Usually closes higher than what it opens at from the past few days?


----------



## baby_swallow (11 August 2011)

got my ar#e kicked today....Ughhh.
those robots got me....


----------



## Muschu (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Turn




South?


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> South?




yes south.

Weird markets.

Tech/a- you are SO convinced that its going to crash. Are you all out at the moment, or are you purely a day trader and not long term?


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> For now it seems. This afternoon may be a different story




Maybe, want to see what happens when all of Asia is online, could be interesting.



tech/a said:


> Turn




Yeah, got burnt a little by the strength this am but got a good part of that turn down so might just watch now till HSI opens.

Also took some short term positions in CBA,BHP and WBC just after open so will see how that plays out.


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> South?




Yes but swinging again
Gotta be right on top of this.
Not for the faint hearted
Got on the wrong side this morning so working hard to get it back--ignore me Im busy.,


----------



## Muschu (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> yes south.
> 
> Weird markets......




Seems to hovering between 40-55 down.  

When do Asian markets open?


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Not for the faint hearted




May the force be with you!


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Seems to hovering between 40-55 down.
> 
> When do Asian markets open?




HSI (Hong Kong) opens in about 30mins. If that rallies hard like the SPI did could be interesting but if it doesn't we could give back that 50 points.

Edit: Futures starting to really roll over now.


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

I'm so craving for a big MQG


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

Futures in the green now, these conditions are unbelievable.

I've struggled a bit today, on the wrong side of the SPI early and managed to get it back, then on the wrong side of the HSI early and managed to get that back. Up for the day but have blown a few good opportunities.

So I think I'll pack it in for the day.


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

*WOW*

Same here 4s but down a bit.

Had a long at 4062 and the market blasted through the stop limit.
Really Peeved off!

Keep hearing Radges words.
"Dont be a Dick for a tick!!!!"


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *WOW*
> 
> Same here 4s but down a bit.
> 
> ...




Agreed on WOW! A rocket just fired under the ASX...

On the back of a jump in unemployment to 5.1%? 

-------------------





Picture of Tech/a after the market blasted through his stop limit...


----------



## McCoy Pauley (11 August 2011)

No doubt in my mind that there is a fair amount of irrational speculation going on in the market at the moment. Such volatility is wonderful for day-traders who know what they are doing (and even then, it would be difficult to follow all the swings and roundabouts at the moment) but for long-term investors, it's a difficult market to invest in presently.

Just my


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

Yeah Tech, I'm up for the day but had to claw back a bit, got a bit of a headache today as well. I've shut my platform down now and might go do some real work.

At least my trades on BHP, CBA and WBC are looking good for the moment.


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Agreed on WOW! A rocket just fired under the ASX...
> 
> On the back of a jump in unemployment to 5.1%?
> 
> ...




Nah

Hes calm!


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Nah
> 
> Hes calm!




heh


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 August 2011)

The blue coat is saying

" I'm getting the **** out of here, but at a time of my choosing, in about 25 minutes time.

gg


----------



## baby_swallow (11 August 2011)

i now beginning to feel that an Aussie version of PPT (US plunge protection team) is
busy  working behind the scene. 
we'd been wrong footed..;-(


----------



## James58209 (11 August 2011)

All Ordinaries vs the DOW Jones Industrial Average over 5 years.

Looking at the chart below (XAO vs DOW over 5 years), the relative "strength" of the Aussie market in recent days could just be mean reversion, i.e. the XAO and the DOW could become more closely correlated again soon, after a period of divergence since late 2010.  Also, the Aussie dollar has weakened against the U.S. in the past couple of weeks, so the apparent "strength" of our share market in dollar terms doesn't mean as much in "real" terms.  I don't think exchange rate fluctuations explain the extent of the recent  XAO vs DOW divergence shown on the chart below, but they would have contributed to it.

So I'm still pretty bearish - finding reasons to be skeptical about the strength of the XAO. But I see that Radge is calling a "significant low" http://conta.cc/pWCNpA. Interesting times...


----------



## skyQuake (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *WOW*
> "Dont be a Dick for a tick!!!!"




Amen to that.

Sure I got filled at the low but did around 5% of the volume I wanted 

Bull market guys. Last chance to buy! (except gold/gold stocks)


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

We are on a roller coaster today.

Twists and turns.

Very interesting.

I'm learning a hell of a lot from this.

Never before did i follow what the DOW did, never did i keep an eye on ASX 200 futures. 

This will be a good thing for me in the long run


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

there's your turn tech/a


----------



## skc (11 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Futures in the green now, these conditions are unbelievable.




And just like that we are 50pts off from the top.

My guess is that the overseas instos who sold out last night deploying their cash into emerging markets and those connected to them. Taiwan is up 3% or so which usually indicates offshore funds flowing.

I am at a lost today and so not a lot of trading for me.

Now QBE needs to make some announcement soon surely.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

skc said:


> And just like that we are 50pts off from the top.
> 
> My guess is that the overseas instos who sold out last night deploying their cash into emerging markets and those connected to them. Taiwan is up 3% or so which usually indicates offshore funds flowing.
> 
> ...




You are hoping for QBE to bring a negative turn?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 August 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Agreed on WOW! A rocket just fired under the ASX...
> 
> On the back of a jump in unemployment to 5.1%?
> 
> ...






Garpal Gumnut said:


> The blue coat is saying
> 
> " I'm getting the **** out of here, but at a time of my choosing, in about 25 minutes time.
> 
> gg




Here it goes, testing, testing , one , two..... three.

gg


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

*I want to show you something*

No more 4s
Boggo 
and anyone else interested.

This is more common in STOCKS!

The chart is self explainatory ---4s--- have a look at your HSI charts and see if you can see a correlation.I often see it in the FTSE I use 3 min charts.
The signal is common in all timeframes.
I use smaller timeframes if its really volatile.

This is todays SPI 1 min chart.

There is accomanying analysis to set a buy or sell trigger.---other than that shown.
The Stochastic 14 period is there to help with over bought /oversold and divergence. I use a break of immediate trend for the trigger.
Exit well thats another group of setups.

Your analysis must be very clear as to wether the EFFORT is exhaustion or demand.
Hence the need for accompanying analysis.

*Click to expand*




Another has just appeared on the 1 min SPI and is yet unclear as to where the effort lies Supply or Demand.
Something will happen SOON.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> *I want to show you something*
> 
> No more 4s
> Boggo
> ...




Something crash or something rally?


----------



## vkdirector (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Something crash or something rally?




There is 3 choices and you have named 2 of them


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

vkdirector said:


> There is 3 choices and you have named 2 of them




3rd= crash and burn?


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

Selling by the look of it.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Selling by the look of it.




So did you predict a selloff?

Or just predict something would happen?


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> So did you predict a selloff?
> 
> Or just predict something would happen?




No we look for that effort after a run down (as it has) as exhaustion of sellers.
So once we have this confirmed then its a long play.
If not confirmed stat. Just got confirmed

WOOOSH


----------



## tech/a (11 August 2011)

There is a string of bars at 4080/90 which act as resistance so a critical point here.
Stop to B/E

BOOM


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> No we look for that effort after a run down (as it has) as exhaustion of sellers.
> So once we have this confirmed then its a long play.
> If not confirmed stat. Just got confirmed
> 
> WOOOSH




Long play as in? Rally?

I'm not sure of all the terminoligy you use.

But i assume you confirmed it mid post


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

Jesus Christ.  Can't a man stop for lunch!!
Tiddles come here!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gi7tN2rjQcc


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

notting said:


> Jesus Christ.  Can't a man stop for lunch!!
> Tiddles come here!
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gi7tN2rjQcc




Lunch is always a fun period. 

The past hour has been very very volatile and im only watching my portfolio.

Can't imagine what the rest of the market has been doing. Swiiinggg


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

Lol - I coulnd't even go for a smoke...

I missed the $23 price on MQG today trying to hold out for a little more. I am attempting day trades and it seems this stock sways with the all ords and was actually doing well when the ords were up 25 points earlier on - went for a smoke, came back, lost money. I love it! Lol!


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

Didn't retailers get a reprieve?
JB looks happy
If that's too expensive then try the reject shop.
GRR rrrrrrrr I missed it.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Lol - I coulnd't even go for a smoke...
> 
> I missed the $23 price on MQG today trying to hold out for a little more. I am attempting day trades and it seems this stock sways with the all ords and was actually doing well when the ords were up 25 points earlier on - went for a smoke, came back, lost money. I love it! Lol!




Ah well, you have your sub $23 price now


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Ah well, you have your sub $23 price now




22.74 atm... I want out at $23 because I am sick of getting bitten by over-night risk...


----------



## ferretbiter (11 August 2011)

By god this week has shown just how emotionally attached to trading I am, its entirely ridiculous.I always thought of my self as an entirely logic-driven person, but the constant loss and profit and plummets and summits of this week has exposed my bi-polar side.

Still bought in on BHP at $35, lets just not talk about buying in on MQG at 29.82 and selling at 23.00 

Really, really wish I didn't sell out of red at 0.145 that bastard of a stock is finally making its run ive waited since March for.While im not in it!


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> 22.74 atm... I want out at $23 because I am sick of getting bitten by over-night risk...




Ah i see, you're looking to sell. My bad.

Thought you were waiting for an entry point.

So, overnight risk?'

If a 500 point drop in the DOW cant sway the ASX... I wonder what tomorrow will bring?


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

ferretbiter said:


> By god this week has shown just how emotionally attached to trading I am, its entirely ridiculous.I always thought of my self as an entirely logic-driven person, but the constant loss and profit and plummets and summits of this week has exposed my bi-polar side.
> 
> Still bought in on BHP at $35, lets just not talk about buying in on MQG at 29.82 and selling at 23.00
> 
> Really, really wish I didn't sell out of red at 0.145 that bastard of a stock is finally making its run ive waited since March for.While im not in it!




Yeah i have been eyeing RED off for a while- Missed the boat now because i was scared by the fall.

**** happens..


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Ah i see, you're looking to sell. My bad.
> 
> Thought you were waiting for an entry point.
> 
> ...




Good question and my speculations are not even worh the paper they are written on - my wait and see attitude will cost me a heap, but my process of learning is sink or swim, no spectator status...


----------



## ferretbiter (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah i have been eyeing RED off for a while- Missed the boat now because i was scared by the fall.
> 
> **** happens..




Now the hard part is wondering if it will go much higher, it should if the market stabilizes, or if the market remains volatile it may drop....then again everyone who panic sells seems to be deploying their capital into gold or gold stocks.....really wish I was a grog drinker right now.Need to chill out.


----------



## VSntchr (11 August 2011)

Maybe you should take a step back and figure out what has changed in the last week since before the markets went crazy.

I'm thinking not alot....further downside to come IMO...whether that means tomorrow..or next week..or next month...I have no idea... but I do think we are in a few some more selling....


----------



## ferretbiter (11 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Maybe you should take a step back and figure out what has changed in the last week since before the markets went crazy.
> 
> I'm thinking not alot....further downside to come IMO...whether that means tomorrow..or next week..or next month...I have no idea... but I do think we are in a few some more selling....




The only thing I believe that has changed is that those who are panic sellers have panicked and sold (like myself) so hopefully if there is a drop it won't be quite as magnificent.


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

> Maybe you should take a step back and figure out what has changed in the last week since before the markets went crazy.



Whooops just fat fingered EQT.(It's a little one)  Oh well might just have to put up with a half a 10% fully franked divedend in September if your right.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Maybe you should take a step back and figure out what has changed in the last week since before the markets went crazy.
> 
> I'm thinking not alot....further downside to come IMO...whether that means tomorrow..or next week..or next month...I have no idea... but I do think we are in a few some more selling....




If i thought enough has changed for the market to be stable i would be buying.

I'm just watching and learning.

Although, tempted to sell some off before the real crash comes.


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

> Whooops just fat fingered EQT



Have invested in some COK so that I do it properly next time.
That really was just a coincidence but it's a Mchappy day.


----------



## Ves (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Although, tempted to sell some off before the real crash comes.



Are you sure that you haven't fallen into the trap of confirmation bias? Ie. you have a preconceived result in your mind and you are only paying attention to everything that confirms that.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

Ves said:


> Are you sure that you haven't fallen into the trap of confirmation bias? Ie. you have a preconceived result in your mind and you are only paying attention to everything that confirms that.




As in- I'm expecting it to crash?

I don't think i follow what you are trying to say.


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

Copper had a bad night last night.
Hope PNA comes back to me before the days out.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

notting said:


> Copper had a bad night last night.
> Hope PNA comes back to me before the days out.




Yeah PNA has been a bit of a dog for me lately.

Hopefully it comes good.

No where near as bad as OZL..


----------



## nomore4s (11 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> The chart is self explainatory ---4s--- have a look at your HSI charts and see if you can see a correlation.




The HSI and SPI don't generally have a to the minute correlation and on some days absolutely no correlation at all. But you will get similar set ups. My favorite is when there are 3 pushes into a low/high each time only just making new lows/highs(there is also other confirmation signals I use but won't go into that here) as this set up tends to signal a very strong reversal. 

Your example is the sort of set up I look for among others as well. It's all about momentum especially with the HSI, you can get good trades trading with the momentum - especially if you can get on early from a set up like you described or getting on with the force that stops the momentum and sends it the other way.


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

Something Odd just happened; I have a conditional sale at $23 - I went for a smoke and came back to see my ticker graph say MQG surged to $23.40 at 3:03, but my sale didnt go through? Currently trading at $22.81... What is the go there?


----------



## Ves (11 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> The HSI and SPI don't generally have a to the minute correlation and on some days absolutely no correlation at all. But you will get similar set ups. My favorite is when there are 3 pushes into a low/high each time only just making new lows/highs(there is also other confirmation signals I use but won't go into that here) as this set up tends to signal a very strong reversal.
> 
> Your example is the sort of set up I look for among others as well. It's all about momentum especially with the HSI, you can get good trades trading with the momentum - especially if you can get on early from a set up like you described or getting on with the force that stops the momentum and sends it the other way.



Just out of curiousity - do you have to trade with Interactive Brokers in Australia to trade the stock market indices of the world?

Do you know of any brokers that have a demo account or "simulation" program that lets you trade live for longer than 14 days?


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah PNA has been a bit of a dog for me lately.
> 
> Hopefully it comes good.
> 
> No where near as bad as OZL..




Well if we stay flat or worse for two years, not sure how much OZL will be left at the rate it's eating it's little patch and throwing money at steak holders.  
In that senario perhaps it could get a second chance to pic up Sandfire somewhere round $3.00 like it should have the first time instead of not knowing which way is up. Not a team I'm backing, though they will jump with the rest.
I think I'm suffering from buyers exhaustion and there's no safe confirmation we have even finished crashing.
That's not smart trading.  But I'm investing, and it's part of my plan!!!  However stupid it may be.


----------



## Ves (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> As in- I'm expecting it to crash?
> 
> I don't think i follow what you are trying to say.



Yes, in a nutshell. You are reacting emotionally, so you are only reacting to the "bad" or "negative" news that is confirming your view of a market crash. That is what I am garnering from your posts.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (11 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Something Odd just happened; I have a conditional sale at $23 - I went for a smoke and came back to see my ticker graph say MQG surged to $23.40 at 3:03, but my sale didnt go through? Currently trading at $22.81... What is the go there?




Could be that the price gapped/spiked quickly and your broker wasn't able to execute at the higher price in time.


----------



## vkdirector (11 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Something Odd just happened; I have a conditional sale at $23 - I went for a smoke and came back to see my ticker graph say MQG surged to $23.40 at 3:03, but my sale didnt go through? Currently trading at $22.81... What is the go there?




Looking through commsec


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

Ves said:


> Yes, in a nutshell. You are reacting emotionally, so you are only reacting to the "bad" or "negative" news that is confirming your view of a market crash. That is what I am garnering from your posts.




Well.

Everytime i have a glintof hope it gets shattered in this thread.

As i am a complete Newb, i tend to trust experienced people like Tech/a etc.

So any expectations of a further crash i have, come directly from them.

Maybe thats silly of me, but to be honest. My technical analysis skillz are non existant.

Although, i think they have just been trying to make me think about things a bit more. Mission accomplished.


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Well.
> 
> Everytime i have a glintof hope it gets shattred in this thread.
> 
> ...




In it for the money eh?

Dw, im newb too - but there is no probability that during the course of your sink/swim stretegy for learning, that you wont pick up anything... I lost a heap of profits on RFE because I did not listen to the 50c price resitance, and rode the storm... needless to say 50 cents to 35 cents is a kick in the head....

Point here is, you are learning more everyday, as are all of us, no need to devaluate yourself...


----------



## vkdirector (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Well.
> Everytime i have a glintof hope it gets shattered in this thread.




Ummm not trying to be clever or anything but have you seen the tittle to this thread?


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

vkdirector said:


> Ummm not trying to be clever or anything but have you seen the tittle to this thread?




Lol - I almost regret starting the thread but it seems it has acted as a venting system for those who need to de-pressurize


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

> Everytime i have a glintof hope it gets shattered in this thread.



Good!! Your starting to get to know her!
She loves your money and spends it on herself and doesn't cair about your hopes.
Unless you set her traps that will make sure she can only get so much for all your trouble and even then she can whip out her whip saw and cut off your head and feet.
And Tech said Radge Said 'It's on.' That call has been incorrect both ways for the last two years.
It keeps getting tweeked and that's the way it works!
What's that Boa constricter doing...............................


----------



## YouAgainstMe (11 August 2011)

So my brief stint at investing came to an end this morning. I would say I am a novice value investor at best but with the way things are atm I couldn't hack it lol. Took my 15% profit that I made over 2 days and ran thinking today we would tank after the dow was down another 500pts. Think I will sit it out until things become a bit more clear!


----------



## RexBudman (11 August 2011)

YouAgainstMe said:


> So my brief stint at investing came to an end this morning. I would say I am a novice value investor at best but with the way things are atm I couldn't hack it lol. Took my 15% profit that I made over 2 days and ran thinking today we would tank after the dow was down another 500pts. Think I will sit it out until things become a bit more clear!





Good for you for taking your profits - I envy you... I, as I have mentioned so many times before - wish to break my laptop, and sever my internet connection and live in the mountains...


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (11 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Good for you for taking your profits - I envy you... I, as I have mentioned so many times before - wish to break my laptop, and sever my internet connection and live in the mountains...




Don't dismay, learn from the experience. Ask yourself:

- What was the reason why you entered a given trade?
- What was your exit strategy? At what price or under what conditions were you to exit?

Then ask:
- Did I follow my entry plan (price hit $xx) or did I buy on emotion (stocks are super cheap now!)?
- Did I follow my exit plan? (Must... hold... on...)
- Did I have appropriate position sizing? (How much capital did you risk)

And finally:
- Have I identified areas of improvement for my plan? Tighter/looser stops? Better position sizing? etc
- What knowledge do I need to acquire? Where can I get this knowledge?
- Do I have the funds to continue trading at this present time or do I take a break, continue learning, then come back to it? (The market has been and will be around for years, there is no rush)

Losing money is not the worst thing you can do in times like these - not learning from your mistakes and trying to improve yourself is far worse.


----------



## littleshire (11 August 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Losing money is not the worst thing you can do in times like these - not learning from your mistakes and trying to improve yourself is far worse.




I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have sold your stocks too cheap and that is the worst thing you can do.

Well... I have finished my buying for now, I have to start putting money aside again just in case the market goes to 3500 so I can buy more and even cheaper!


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (11 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have sold your stocks too cheap and that is the worst thing you can do.




I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have *bought* your stocks too *dear* and that is the worst thing you can do.

Anybody can deem themselves to be right by holding stocks for years and years - eventually the market is likely to recover above the price you paid. It does not change the fact that you were wrong in your entry.

I acknowledge however that 'value investors' operate with a long term perspective and will maintain a short term paper loss if they think the stock price is below its' intrinsic value. Bear in mind that stocks can get much cheaper very quickly,  buying and blindly holding because they are at a discount to intrinsic value means nothing when the stock keeps going down, down and down.

Just mentioning this for the newbies, because many get caught in the 'it will eventually recover' trap. There is a difference to buying a cheap stock relative to 'intrinsic value' compared to buying a cheap stock because it's cheaper now than it was a year ago.


----------



## littleshire (11 August 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have *bought* your stocks too *dear* and that is the worst thing you can do.
> 
> Anybody can deem themselves to be right by holding stocks for years and years - eventually the market is likely to recover above the price you paid. It does not change the fact that you were wrong in your entry.
> 
> ...




Like Warren Buffett said: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" Ask him how many wrong entries he had.

You are partially right regarding value investing, but I have to clarify here that the price only recovers for the stocks with good fundamentals, the others just go kaput: Enron, HIH, WorldCom, B&B, ABC Childcare

For the newbies: if you are playing the 'value' game, check the fundamentals of your stocks on a regular basis, avoid ALL stocks that don't have a continuous (min 5 years, 10 years will be ideal) profit history. Learn how to differentiate between a stock that goes down because of seasonal changes (like most retailers are doing now) from the ones the one that go down because they are going broke (ABC Childcare).


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

I do my best trading when I'm standing on my head.
And hitting the wrong buttons.


----------



## Boggo (11 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Like Warren Buffett said: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" Ask him how many wrong entries he had.




Buffet doesn't buy shares, or if he does he buys a few million bucks worth of Amex, Coke or the majority of a mismanaged company and then turns it around to profit.
Amateur punters trying to think and act like Buffet are always fun to watch and read !



littleshire said:


> You are partially right regarding value investing, but I have to clarify here that the price only recovers for the stocks with good fundamentals, the others just go kaput: Enron, HIH, WorldCom, B&B, ABC Childcare




You forgot to mention that OneTel also had good fundamentals, well according to the Packers it did and they couldn't have distorted the facts to keep the mug punters happy while the share price dived... seriously.
Telstra has good fundamentals, I make money out of it twice each year by holding it for about a month, if you're into fundamentals you have to have some of those in the bottom drawer 



littleshire said:


> For the newbies: if you are playing the 'value' game, check the fundamentals of your stocks on a regular basis, avoid ALL stocks that don't have a continuous (min 5 years, 10 years will be ideal) profit history. Learn how to differentiate between a stock that goes down because of seasonal changes (like most retailers are doing now) *from the ones the one that go down because they are going broke* (ABC Childcare).




Telstra must be going broke then ?

While you believe that stuff you will remain in the 90%+ majority with a big bottom drawer.


----------



## sammy84 (11 August 2011)

Went to Europe for a holiday once XAO support broke a while ago. Sounds ridiculous but sometimes the best thing to do is ignore the market and I can't seem to do that unless I take myself away. 

Scanned the charts for the first time last night. Seems like I may have planned this holiday for a little too long. Love that blow off low.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 August 2011)

I wonder if the DOW could drop 10% in a single session.  In 1987 it dropped 20+% in a day, nothing like that since.


----------



## drsmith (11 August 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I wonder if the DOW could drop 10% in a single session.  In 1987 it dropped 20+% in a day, nothing like that since.



I think now they turn the power off (or something similar) after a fall of something or another.


----------



## YouAgainstMe (11 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Good for you for taking your profits - I envy you... I, as I have mentioned so many times before - wish to break my laptop, and sever my internet connection and live in the mountains...





I hope I didn't come off as bragging or anything? Apologies if I did it wasn't intended and I think I was more lucky more than anything.


----------



## LifeChoices (11 August 2011)

Today was as dull as dog ****.

I want a global financial reboot and I want it now!


----------



## notting (11 August 2011)

> Last time I checked the little green Martians didn't have cash to invest



You may need to adjust your glasses. Their yellow.


----------



## LifeChoices (11 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> I think now they turn the power off (or something similar) after a fall of something or another.




I think you are right, I vaguely remember something like that happening during either one of the big gfc falls or the tech bubble fall - the market just shut down for an hour or something.

Below are the most recent biggest falls - I'm sure it was one of those that they shut the system down for a while.

1 	2008-09-29 	10,365.45 	−777.68 	−6.98
2 	2008-10-15 	8,577.91 	−733.08 	−7.87
3 	2001-09-17 	8,920.70 	−684.81 	−7.13
4 	2008-12-01 	8,149.09 	−679.95 	−7.70
5 	2008-10-09 	8,579.19 	−678.91 	−7.33
*6 	2011-08-08 	10,809.85 	−634.76 	−5.55*


----------



## alexc2005 (11 August 2011)

Time to go to bed and read this weeks Eureka report for some more learnings .

It's a pretty interesting one this week!

woot.

Night all


----------



## drsmith (11 August 2011)

The Dow futures looks a bit wobbly.


----------



## Julia (11 August 2011)

ferretbiter said:


> The only thing I believe that has changed is that those who are panic sellers have panicked and sold (like myself) so hopefully if there is a drop it won't be quite as magnificent.



  Panic sellers?   Or people sensible enough to have stop losses in place?

So you don't believe there has been any actual valid reason for selling?
If you believe that, then presumably you discount the possibility of further bad news out of Europe or the US prompting further significant sell off.



KurwaJegoMac said:


> I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have *bought* your stocks too *dear* and that is the worst thing you can do.
> 
> Anybody can deem themselves to be right by holding stocks for years and years - eventually the market is likely to recover above the price you paid. It does not change the fact that you were wrong in your entry.
> 
> ...



Alex, read the above and read it again.


----------



## So_Cynical (11 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have sold your stocks too cheap and that is the worst thing you can do.
> 
> Well... I have finished my buying for now, I have to start putting money aside again just in case the market goes to 3500 so I can buy more and even cheaper!




That's the spirit...this thread is full of people spruking sell sell sell, take the loss and learn, blah blah blah...the market will always be here, but it wont always be cheap.

Fortunes were made in the first GFC dip and fortunes will be made in this second dip.

Buy buy buy


----------



## robusta (11 August 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> I differ on this one, losing money in times like these means that you have *bought* your stocks too *dear* and that is the worst thing you can do.
> 
> Anybody can deem themselves to be right by holding stocks for years and years - eventually the market is likely to recover above the price you paid. It does not change the fact that you were wrong in your entry.
> 
> ...






So_Cynical said:


> That's the spirit...this thread is full of people spruking sell sell sell, take the loss and learn, blah blah blah...the market will always be here, but it wont always be cheap.
> 
> Fortunes were made in the first GFC dip and fortunes will be made in this second dip.
> 
> Buy buy buy




Could not agree more. If you play this market well it is just a opportunity to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient investors.


----------



## skc (11 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> You are hoping for QBE to bring a negative turn?




It was the most negative of the big financials... something just doesn't smell right.



LifeChoices said:


> I think you are right, I vaguely remember something like that happening during either one of the big gfc falls or the tech bubble fall - the market just shut down for an hour or something.




It's called limit down. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZRWfr8j_IXc&refer=us



alexc2005 said:


> Time to go to bed and read this weeks Eureka report for some more learnings .
> 
> It's a pretty interesting one this week!
> 
> ...




Eureka report... good luck with that.



So_Cynical said:


> That's the spirit...this thread is full of people spruking sell sell sell, take the loss and learn, blah blah blah...the market will always be here, but it wont always be cheap.
> 
> Fortunes were made in the first GFC dip and fortunes will be made in this second dip.
> 
> Buy buy buy




The first GFC *dip *top to bottom was 6,800 down to 3,100. Or 45.8%.

This second GFC *dip* top to bottom so far is 5,000 down to ~3,980. Or 20.4%.

So why is now the right time to buy? I am not saying it isn't, but I am asking why it is...


----------



## So_Cynical (12 August 2011)

skc said:


> The first GFC *dip *top to bottom was 6,800 down to 3,100. Or 45.8%.
> 
> This second GFC *dip* top to bottom so far is 5,000 down to ~3,980. Or 20.4%.
> 
> So why is now the right time to buy? I am not saying it isn't, but I am asking why it is...




I have a simple investment philosophy...buy stocks when they are cheap and thus offering greater potential for profit..stocks are cheap now...since i cant pick bottoms or reversals im left with picking stocks that i think are cheap, i think stocks are cheap now.

Plus i don't think things are as bad now as they were then, the Global financial system will not fail, sovereign debt will be restructured, lenders will take a hair cut, the BRIC country's will keep the commodity's boom and world growth going.

The yanks with cut spending and raise taxes eventually and the markets will come back and trade at around the top of the range (5000) at some point...and at that point the people who brought now will feel pretty satisfied with themselves and make good money...lest that's my experience from the first leg down.


----------



## LifeChoices (12 August 2011)

I find there is always too much emphasis on buying, and when to buy. Buying is incredibly easy.

Selling is much harder. 

Being able to sell at the right time for the right price distinguishes a good trader from an amateur.


----------



## isplicer (12 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I have a simple investment philosophy...buy stocks when they are cheap and thus offering greater potential for profit..stocks are cheap now...since i cant pick bottoms or reversals im left with picking stocks that i think are cheap, i think stocks are cheap now.




Why don't you wait to see how low they can go, then buy back after they show some sustained signs of recovery?


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 August 2011)

Time to put this thread to bed for now?

DOW lift off with Saturn rocket, up *+470pts* overnight.

A day is a long time in the market....


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Time to put this thread to bed for now?
> 
> DOW lift off with Saturn rocket, up *+470pts* overnight.
> 
> A day is a long time in the market....




Saw this when i woke up- 

Eureka report is not so bad. Gives a nice summary of whats going on at the very least.


----------



## Bill M (12 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I have a simple investment philosophy...buy stocks when they are cheap and thus offering greater potential for profit..stocks are cheap now...since i cant pick bottoms or reversals im left with picking stocks that i think are cheap, i think stocks are cheap now.
> 
> Plus i don't think things are as bad now as they were then, the Global financial system will not fail, sovereign debt will be restructured, lenders will take a hair cut, the BRIC country's will keep the commodity's boom and world growth going.
> 
> The yanks with cut spending and raise taxes eventually and the markets will come back and trade at around the top of the range (5000) at some point...and at that point the people who brought now will feel pretty satisfied with themselves and make good money...lest that's my experience from the first leg down.




I agree with all that and I am on record on this forum for buying during this low and the GFC. I also pumped a bit into my wifes super this week. I have been a long term share market investor since 1987 and one thing for sure, no one is going to ring a bell at the bottom or the top. We need to think for ourselves and buy good companies that are being sold ridiculously cheap that pay good dividends. I don't care if the price drops short term or even for years as I live off all the dividends that my stocks pay me. I do not need to redeem my capital nor do I have a margin loan, no forced selling from this investor. Keep up the good work, there is nothing like those dividend cheques coming in.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 August 2011)

isplicer said:


> Why don't you wait to see how low they can go, then buy back after they show some sustained signs of recovery?




Your perspective is based on the presumption that the panic will continue and the market will go lower. Bear markets are prolongued downward drifts over time. Panic downward spikes are just that, spikes. They are a time to buy for the stout hearted. 
If you have done your research and shares are showing as bargains now you have two choices: First choice is to buy now; and Second choice is to wait.

If you buy now you are either right or wrong. However you will have the share at a good price the market is likely to rebound above relatively quickly.
If you defer, you could miss out as the market rebounds quickly and this becomes an opportunity lost. If you defer and the market dips further, you could still decide to hold for an even lower price and still miss out.

Hard call, not one for the inexperienced and those lacking confidence in their own research.


----------



## tech/a (12 August 2011)

*TECHNICAL UPDATE*

The very very strong support from the lows in face of negative strength (at the time) from overseas markets has me seeing a low in place for the immediate future.
However I dont think one needs to rush out and buy everything before it races back up towards 4500.
In my view there will be quite some consolidation between 3900 and 4500 while the market sorts itself out.

*Click to expand*


----------



## ferretbiter (12 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Panic sellers?   Or people sensible enough to have stop losses in place?
> 
> So you don't believe there has been any actual valid reason for selling?
> If you believe that, then presumably you discount the possibility of further bad news out of Europe or the US prompting further significant sell off.
> ...




No, no ,no Im sure most of the experienced investors had stop losses and sold out (probably bought back in when stocks were cheap), but a large amount of the selling has been people panic selling under pressure of a market collapse.

Of course there has been valid reasons to sell and I think in the next two weeks we are going to get even more and more valid reasons to sell coming out of europe.

I just think alot of the less experienced or less bold investors are currently "sitting the market out" for now, so that if there is further bad news, I don't expect it will be as steep of a drop.

P.S. gotta say, thank you tech/a for all your analysis, its good for a newbie like me to see what the more experienced traders opinions are (and likely react accordingly).


----------



## notting (12 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Time to put this thread to bed for now?
> 
> DOW lift off with Saturn rocket, up *+470pts* overnight.
> 
> A day is a long time in the market....




What if you baught Gold yesterday


----------



## skc (12 August 2011)

The market is bipolar... this isn't a great sign of health imo. I was trying to dig out some history of market bipolar behaviour and what it normally leads to...this is one example. But I am limited by the data I have at hand. 

16-Jan-08	5809.678	-2.522%
17-Jan-08	5796.122	-0.233%
18-Jan-08	5747.251	-0.843%
21-Jan-08	5580.416	-2.903%
22-Jan-08	5186.846	-7.053%
23-Jan-08	5412.32	4.347%
24-Jan-08	5580.442	3.106%
25-Jan-08	5860.322	5.015%

I also read somewhere these numbers

26-Oct-87    -8.0%
23-Oct-87    0.0%
22-Oct-87    -3.8%
21-Oct-87    10.1%
20-Oct-87    5.9%
19-Oct-87    -22.6%
16-Oct-87    -4.6%
15-Oct-87    -2.4%
14-Oct-87    -3.8%

Anyone care to do some smarter historical review? Make sure you start with looking at volatility and see how it turns out, not look at market action before known crashes. I think/hope there are examples where extreme volatility doesn't lead to a crash.


----------



## notting (12 August 2011)

I haven't read 'turtle soup', however, that one may be helpful in 6 months Time or so?
Although I could just be reading too much of the recent past into the future.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

notting said:


> What if you baught Gold yesterday




What _if_ you bought Gold yesterday? Is it a bad thing that the DOW went up for gold holders? I'm curious...


----------



## vkdirector (12 August 2011)

I still hold some gold and dont think that 1 good night on the dow means that you should sell out of gold straight away. In saying that I did not just buy gold in the last week


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

vkdirector said:


> I still hold some gold and dont think that 1 good night on the dow means that you should sell out of gold straight away. In saying that I did not just buy gold in the last week




What I'm hearing here is;

Dow Good = Sell Gold (trend will decrease)
Dow Bad = Buy Gold (trend will increase)

My Newbness prevails!


----------



## notting (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> What _if_ you bought Gold yesterday? Is it a bad thing that the DOW went up for gold holders? I'm curious...



To me it looked like it 'came' for the second time yesterday.  Usually that's not so premature. A third time could be pushing it, especially when the Dow is already up in the morning.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

OMG - everything I buy turns to sh*t... Gold was on a nice uptrend yesterday and it lost today - My stop loss kicked in and I went to buy MQG because the All Ords and DOW was up - It hovers 20 cents lower than my buy. Everything I have bought since the crash has all turned to crap.

I just don't know what I am doing wrong, and on that note what I'm doing... My portfolio is dropping like a sack of bricks and am still kicking myself for no selling when my portfolio was good with RFE... 

I want to make a go of this and I hate losing so I want to continue until I win the game - but everything I touch turns to crap!


----------



## Boggo (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> OMG - everything I buy turns to sh*t... Gold was on a nice uptrend yesterday and it lost today - My stop loss kicked in* and I went to buy MQG because the All Ords and DOW was up* - It hovers 20 cents lower than my buy. Everything I have bought since the crash has all turned to crap.
> 
> I just don't know what I am doing wrong, and on that note what I'm doing... My portfolio is dropping like a sack of bricks and am still kicking myself for no selling when my portfolio was good with RFE...
> 
> I want to make a go of this and I hate losing so *I want to continue until I win the game* - but everything I touch turns to crap!




Working backwards in your post...

It's not a game, it's a business that needs thought, plan, method and execution.

Tell me why you would buy MQG and I think that as you explain it you may work out for yourself why you will never win.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Working backwards in your post...
> 
> It's not a game, it's a business that needs thought, plan, method and execution.
> 
> Tell me why you would buy MQG and I think that as you explain it you may work out for yourself why you will never win.




Everything in life is a game- some games are harsh and others are fun; some are necessary. The main thing is that you win and leave the rest for dead. If you lose, respawn and try again...

I picked up MQG because of the overnight up-trend of the DOW. Since the DOW's performance reflects on us during our session I figured an early bargain buy should ascertain a small profit by the afternoon. My speculation could be very well off but at the time I thought I made the right choice - and the only reason I think it is wrong is because of its performance at this time. I got in at 23.98 and it is hovering at 23.70 even though the buy demand exceeds the sell demand which in my view should bump a price higher from simple supply and demand...

Again my speculation could be very well off the mark but I am determined to learn. I hate losing and I always come back with fire in my eyes for revenge. Just like Gankutsuo, the Count of Monte Cristo


----------



## notting (12 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Everything I have bought since the crash has all turned to crap..



Trade less. It's not a gift shop, other wise we'd all be rich! That comsec add is satan!
Buying gold after the crash just has an odd ring to it too.


----------



## againsthegrain (12 August 2011)

> Trade less. It's not a gift shop, other wise we'd all be rich! That comsec add is satan!




Thats not what the brokers are saying lol


----------



## James58209 (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> OMG - everything I buy turns to sh*t... Gold was on a nice uptrend yesterday and it lost today




Markets are very volatile right now - I wouldn't count on any trend lasting more than a few days at the moment.



RexBudman said:


> I went to buy MQG because the All Ords and DOW was up




If that was your only reason for buying MQG, then what you are doing sounds like gambling, rather than carefully-planned trading or investing. When I get the urge to gamble, I buy a Tatts Scratchie for $5 - a lot cheaper than risking thousand dollar losses into the ASX.



RexBudman said:


> I just don't know what I am doing wrong, and on that note what I'm doing...




Then maybe you should stop trading, and focus on educating yourself instead. You can do some paper-trading, but there's no need to choose such a volatile time in the stock market to trade real money if you are still learning.



RexBudman said:


> I want to make a go of this and I hate losing so I want to continue until I win the game




Again, sounds like gambling.

Good luck!


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

As amateur share traders i think we are too emotional.

We buy because we worry about missing out.

Whereas you never miss out because there is always opportunities.

Don't get attatched to a single stock, it will be your downfall.

Many times when i first started and even lately, i would put in a buy and then change it so that i got the stock. This is never a good idea as it shows i have no gameplan.

I'm willing to admit that fault, but the only way you can learn is if you stuff up a few times.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

James,

I had researched a whole heap on the stock I originally speculated on - and it was all coming to fruition. I was up a decent percentage and my views were pretty much correct with RFE... Then the crash happened - and the desperation arose to get my money back. When I read these threads I saw people happy that the bargains arose and posted pics of their accounts up int he green. I want to be int he green too.

I may run away from day trading for now as I don't seem to be able to make a go of it... Volatility is what I am after but again everything I touch turns to sh*t....

I am just having a vent today - I am a naturally angry person so that doesn't help...


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> James,
> 
> I had researched a whole heap on the stock I originally speculated on - and it was all coming to fruition. I was up a decent percentage and my views were pretty much correct with RFE... Then the crash happened - and the desperation arose to get my money back. When I read these threads I saw people happy that the bargains arose and posted pics of their accounts up int he green. I want to be int he green too.
> 
> ...




You can take advantage of volatility. But don't always expect to win.

Thats why i have been sitting this out.

Yeah i could have made back all my losses. BUT, what could i have lost if i got it wrong?

And then have more losses?

No thanks.


----------



## notting (12 August 2011)

> Whereas you never miss out because there is always opportunities.




To lose.  

Buying is refered to as "risk on".  Selling "risk off".

The markets a public school with a very private price tag.



PS: Alex there's a message in your inbox, read it!


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> You can take advantage of volatility. But don't always expect to win.
> 
> Thats why i have been sitting this out.
> 
> ...




I think I'll sit out too... This is an utter joke.... Everyone makes money on volatile markets - except me...


----------



## skc (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> I picked up MQG because of the overnight up-trend of the DOW. Since the DOW's performance reflects on us during our session I figured an early bargain buy should ascertain a small profit by the afternoon. My speculation could be very well off but at the time I thought I made the right choice - and the only reason I think it is wrong is because of its performance at this time. I got in at 23.98 and it is hovering at 23.70 even though the buy demand exceeds the sell demand which in my view should bump a price higher from simple supply and demand...




This isn't ridiculous, but it's only an idea that's unproven. You need to approach your trading with a scientific and rational manner. Sure US was up last night and usually translate to a good day on ASX. But what happens during the course of the trading day? Do we a) open high straight away and finish lower than we open? Or do we b) open on the low and rise gradually through the day?

Your strategy might work if we do b), but won't work well when we behave like a). 

Now what about MQG itself? Does it normally follow the overall market? Or has it been leading/lagging/unresponsive to overall market movements?

It's all nice and good coming up with possible theories. You then need to watch the market and see if those theories have any legs. Then you might go back through the charts and see if the probability of winning is with you...Then you might have a legit market observation that has a shot of being profitable. Put around that some risk management measures and you might have yourself a strategy.

Being a newbie putting money on random, untested ideas, during a time when shares are the most volatile, is in fact not too different from gambling.


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

notting said:


> To lose.
> 
> Buying is refered to as "risk on".  Selling "risk off".
> 
> ...




Thanks mate! I will have to follow that up 



RexBudman said:


> I think I'll sit out too... This is an utter joke.... Everyone makes money on volatile markets - except me...




Don't start becoming irrational- otherwise you will make more mistakes. Just calm down, trust in your initial instincts (even if you are down at the moment, if you believe in the stock, what has changed since you bought it?). 

How old are you Rex? Just out of curiosity?

I'm 22, and being down 5k is alot of money to me, BUT, how much is the learnings worth in the future? 100k? Who knows. But learnings generally cost you.

Generally you get what you pay for 

Cheer up bud


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

skc said:


> This isn't ridiculous, but it's only an idea that's unproven. You need to approach your trading with a scientific and rational manner. Sure US was up last night and usually translate to a good day on ASX. But what happens during the course of the trading day? Do we a) open high straight away and finish lower than we open? Or do we b) open on the low and rise gradually through the day?
> 
> Your strategy might work if we do b), but won't work well when we behave like a).
> 
> ...




Agreed...

Alex; Around your age mate. I am down less than what you are down. I have a home business wher I am trying to suck funds out of it and invest them to make them work. I don;t see my industry lasting at this rate more than a few years. So I wanted to not have my money sitting in dead cash, or in an interest account where I earn garbage chump change.


----------



## vkdirector (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> I hate losing and I always come back with fire in my eyes for revenge.




Rome wasn't built in a day.  I think you need to get a trading plan and stick to it, I know it is easier said than done but thats the way the market works.


I think it was you yesterday that was selling out of MQG at $23 and now today you are buying at a higher price. The question I am going to ask is what has changed in under the last 24 hours for MQG??  If it was not you that was trying to sell MQG then i am sorry


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

vkdirector said:


> Rome wasn't built in a day.  I think you need to get a trading plan and stick to it, I know it is easier said than done but thats the way the market works.
> 
> 
> I think it was you yesterday that was selling out of MQG at $23 and now today you are buying at a higher price. The question I am going to ask is what has changed in under the last 24 hours for MQG??  If it was not you that was trying to sell MQG then i am sorry




No, that was me. I got burned a few times with over-night risk so I Planned to sell off and re-buy in the morning at a discounted price. Thoguh If I had stuck to yesterdays buy I would be up now... Testing the water for day-trading isn't easy at all, and I have learnt from that...

So if you want to call it a dumb move, or stupid planning, or even ignorant gambling - by all means do so, because you would be correct.


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Agreed...
> 
> Alex; Around your age mate. I am down less than what you are down. I have a home business wher I am trying to suck funds out of it and invest them to make them work. I don;t see my industry lasting at this rate more than a few years. So I wanted to not have my money sitting in dead cash, or in an interest account where I earn garbage chump change.




Ah well, percentage wise im about 8%. How about you?

As the experenced traders that have made money out of this market have said. Its not always green and sometimes they get it wrong too.

At around 22, i think we are doing well to be interested enough in investing to give it a go and learn lessons for the future.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Ah well, percentage wise im about 8%. How about you?
> 
> As the experenced traders that have made money out of this market have said. Its no always green and sometimes they get it wrong too.
> 
> At around 22, i think we are doing well to interested enough in investing to give it a go and learn lessons for the future.




Yeh I suppose at this age it is better to learn sooner rather than later.

Laugh if you want, but my goal is to have $1m cash. That is the only time I would agree for a term deposit at 6% average... As soon as I get that I will retire no matter how young/old I am...

Well anyway - good luck to everyone - hope you obtain some great profits...


----------



## vkdirector (12 August 2011)

Rex

Mate have a read through this thread as it has a wealth of knowledge and you can see another persons trading system/ideas  it is a pretty long post and almost covers a complete year of trades

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21005


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Yeh I suppose at this age it is better to learn sooner rather than later.
> 
> Laugh if you want, but my goal is to have $1m cash. That is the only time I would agree for a term deposit at 6% average... As soon as I get that I will retire no matter how young/old I am...
> 
> Well anyway - good luck to everyone - hope you obtain some great profits...




My goal is to gross 100k this year. 

Having 1m cash is not that outlandish of a goal.

If you said $1m cash by the time you're 30.. then you might be pushing it.


----------



## tech/a (12 August 2011)

There is some serious *silliness* being posted on this thread.


----------



## ChrisJH (12 August 2011)

$24ish for MQG might be a bit much in this market, if things remain volatile, but medium term it's not necessarilly that bad. It was going for $40 just a few months ago. My MQG shares are currently down about 55% on what i paid for them, if I'd had some spare cash I'd probably buy some more.

Unfortunately I missed out on buying any bargains recently, but I don't think this volatility is a anywhere from over, so hopefully we will all have some more chances to make some money, lose some money, and learn some things.

I'm not mch older than you guys, and this past week ive lost more than I could save in a whole year, but I think the best thing ie learnt is not to worry or stress too much about what the market does on a day to day basis. And to stick to my plan.


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> There is some serious *silliness* being posted on this thread.




Yeah.

Maybe back on topic ay.

Good day in the market today


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> My goal is to gross 100k this year.
> 
> Having 1m cash is not that outlandish of a goal.
> 
> If you said $1m cash by the time you're 30.. then you might be pushing it.




1m cash @ 6.8% p/a = 68K/year ---> The entire world can eat my dust...

At the moment I have the Shidas touch, eveything I touch turns to sh*t hahahaha...

Screw it - Am going back to my roots, back to RFE until their operations are in full progress...I'd say they are under-valued atm - oh well, day trading will have to wait 

I should be able to gross 70-80K from my business but probably net 40% of that... I hope you meet your goal, Alex...


----------



## nomore4s (12 August 2011)

Alex & Rex,

You guys really need to stop and have a think about what you are doing. Please search through the forum especially the beginners section as neither of you are ready to be trading especially day trading ASX stocks.

Having the goals you have is fine but you need a realistic and workable plan to achieve them, just saying I want $1m cash or I want to gross $100k this year is not going to get the job done.

I've blown a $50k account thinking I knew what trading was all about and I could just make it work without the proper education, experience, skills or tools but you don't have to lose money to become a good trader, unfortunately that is the only way most of learn to respect the market.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Alex & Rex,
> 
> You guys really need to stop and have a think about what you are doing. Please search through the forum especially the beginners section as neither of you are ready to be trading especially day trading ASX stocks.
> 
> ...




Will do mate - you are 100% correct...


----------



## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Alex & Rex,
> 
> You guys really need to stop and have a think about what you are doing. Please search through the forum especially the beginners section as neither of you are ready to be trading especially day trading ASX stocks.
> 
> ...




Actually, my goal is not share market related. Its career related. So infact, I am getting the job done 

But yes, we are both nieve, and we will get burnt.

Sometimes thats the only way some people learn.


----------



## littleshire (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> My goal is to gross 100k this year.
> 
> Having 1m cash is not that outlandish of a goal.
> 
> If you said $1m cash by the time you're 30.. then you might be pushing it.




If you are twenty-something, take the market easy, the market is a nasty and crazy fella that can eat you alive if you are not careful.

Rex, if you expect the market to raise why do you buy MQG? A single stock is not going to follow the market every a single day, there are some ETF out there that track the market and even then playing short term is a risky business.

The first thing to learn is not to make money but to preserve it, do you understand? Capital preservation is the first skill to master in this game.

Once you learn to preserve it you start making some money and the whole process takes time, years to be honest, be patient, learn and play small.


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> If you are twenty-something, take the market easy, the market is a nasty and crazy fella that can eat you alive if you are not careful.
> 
> Rex, if you expect the market to raise why do you buy MQG? A single stock is not going to follow the market every a single day, there are some ETF out there that track the market and even then playing short term is a risky business.
> 
> ...




Excellent advice, thankyou. I will note this as well as everyone elses advice - and I thank you all for taking the time to do so.


----------



## investorpaul (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> My goal is to gross 100k this year.
> 
> Having 1m cash is not that outlandish of a goal.
> 
> If you said $1m cash by the time you're 30.. then you might be pushing it.




You guys need to sit down and think what is realistic.

I'm not going to pretend to be a great trader or investor however I have finally found an area of the market that I can profit from and enjoy.

Im 22 now (so about your age) and first started investing in shares when I was 12. I sunk everything I had into a stock ($500 worth). Now you read on these forms and other sites that its not working doing unless you have $5k, $10k or $20k or whatever someone says but that $500 was the best thing I ever did. Sure brokerage sucked and it took a while to be in profit but it taught me many valuable lessions. (I was not trading day to day I focused on longer term investments). I was also self taught as my parents never touched shares and I had to find out how to actually buy, etc, etc.

Anyone that investment didnt turn out to be too crash hot, neither did the one after it. I then began to undertake serious research and started to understand why stocks moved and what everything meant. I focused strongly on fundamentals and stuck to companies in the ASX 200. I then made 40% on a stock that was taken over shortly after I bought it (my reserarch indiciated it was a good turn around story) and my next two investments have been my best performers to date. By this stage I was older and had started to investment larger sums of money.

I then branched out and traded index options when I was 16 (made some good returns but also lost on individual stock options due to a lack of liquidity and time decay). I traded CFDs which I enjoy and still do when time permits.

Anyway this is not to gloat but more to point out that investing/trading is like a journey and that the biggest benefit, if you are in fact working and/or studying from home, is time monitoring and learning about the market. I specifically left my job to run a business from home that provides me with cashflow (so I can eat) and allows me to trade and research as much as I desire. 

Anyway to sum up all that read, learn, research and dont chase dreams. Find your niche and learn it to the best of your ability.

In the meantime protect your capital. I have never gone all in or been crazy with my money and as a result I have not lost significant amounts in a stock or trade. This principle will allow you to buy the most important thing that is integral to your long term success in the market "time and experience".

You wont find that in a book or the net


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

Paul,

Good advice mate.

My goals were not from trading stocks - rather trading stocks is my way of creating a bump in my portfolio. I am currently trying to grow my business base in order to reach my goal.

All in all, I'd say you, as well as many others on this thread, are correct. I will stick to my long term stocks that I have researched quite a bit on. They did prove to yield a profit within a few months however my desperation started end of july, beginning of August around crash time.

I'll give day trading a miss, and focus on the long termers that I have knowledge about.


----------



## skc (12 August 2011)

Enough about young people and what they do/don't know about markets.

Here's an uplifting article from the press about the latest development.



> ASIC boss Greg Medcraft is today expected to rule out any plans to follow several European countries and impose short-selling bans on financial stocks.




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...financial-stocks/story-e6frg916-1226113655115


----------



## littleshire (12 August 2011)

Be careful you don’t end up in any of these groups:

*The born-again traders:* this group heard somewhere that W. Buffet or P. Lynch were great investors, and decide to emulate them, borrow a couple of books and start researching companies here and there and finally, the time to commit money has come and a ‘value portfolio’ is constructed. Nothing can go wrong, can it? After all, everything has been purchased to a discount to its ‘intrinsic value’. After a while most of their holdings show a profit, “man, this is easy” they think... they buy more and more and so the story goes. One day, the market tanks, blood is everywhere. This is when their real call in life comes, an idyllic moment... “why I didn’t have a stop loss in place?” They think, in no time they have been converted and know everything about averages, RSI and of course, everything about the great “Fibonacci”. For them, everything has become clear, the time to sell everything has come, they are sure a “bear” market has begun and it will decline for months, perhaps years. “In these volatile times, I will make my money back in no time doing short-term trades” they think. The end result? The remaining of their capital is destroyed.

*The born-again investors:* this second group heard somewhere how great George Soros was and how he alone broke the Bank of England and blah blah. After some more research, their super-heroes of childhood are replaced by this guy. They feel they are ready to trade and make some real money. Money goes into the market and profits are made here and there and of course some minor or irrelevant losses here and there, life is good, they love the market. Then, after all their indicators announce a new bull market is in the makings, they commit all their capital.... suddenly, the market tanks. “What happened? Is it because I didn’t do proper research” They think. In no time, the conversion to the other side of the “force” happens. The idolatry to Soros has been replaced to one to Benjamin Graham. “Stuff those stupid charts” they say, after all, they now know and understand that their stocks have “intrinsic” value and if they hold long enough they will come back one day. Guess what? That never happens. end result? They end up in even deeper sh*t.


----------



## Julia (12 August 2011)

RexBudman said:


> Everything in life is a game- some games are harsh and others are fun; some are necessary. The main thing is that you win and leave the rest for dead. If you lose, respawn and try again...
> 
> I picked up MQG because of the overnight up-trend of the DOW. Since the DOW's performance reflects on us during our session I figured an early bargain buy should ascertain a small profit by the afternoon. My speculation could be very well off but at the time I thought I made the right choice - and the only reason I think it is wrong is because of its performance at this time. I got in at 23.98 and it is hovering at 23.70 even though the buy demand exceeds the sell demand which in my view should bump a price higher from simple supply and demand...
> 
> Again my speculation could be very well off the mark but I am determined to learn. I hate losing and I always come back with fire in my eyes for revenge. Just like Gankutsuo, the Count of Monte Cristo



"Fire in your eyes"?   "Revenge"?   Ditch the emotional rhetoric and take a considered approach to actually acquiring some education.



RexBudman said:


> I think I'll sit out too... This is an utter joke.... Everyone makes money on volatile markets - except me...



What nonsense.


----------



## Julia (12 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> There is some serious *silliness* being posted on this thread.




+1.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (12 August 2011)

Hi Guys,

I thought I would post these 2 videos to give some perspective to those who have been freaked out by the recent falls.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (12 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Be careful you don’t end up in any of these groups:
> 
> *The born-again traders:* this group heard somewhere that W. Buffet or P. Lynch were great investors, and decide to emulate them, borrow a couple of books and start researching companies here and there and finally, the time to commit money has come and a ‘value portfolio’ is constructed. Nothing can go wrong, can it? After all, everything has been purchased to a discount to its ‘intrinsic value’. After a while most of their holdings show a profit, “man, this is easy” they think... they buy more and more and so the story goes. One day, the market tanks, blood is everywhere. This is when their real call in life comes, an idyllic moment... “why I didn’t have a stop loss in place?” They think, in no time they have been converted and know everything about averages, RSI and of course, everything about the great “Fibonacci”. For them, everything has become clear, the time to sell everything has come, they are sure a “bear” market has begun and it will decline for months, perhaps years. “In these volatile times, I will make my money back in no time doing short-term trades” they think. The end result? The remaining of their capital is destroyed.
> 
> *The born-again investors:* this second group heard somewhere how great George Soros was and how he alone broke the Bank of England and blah blah. After some more research, their super-heroes of childhood are replaced by this guy. They feel they are ready to trade and make some real money. Money goes into the market and profits are made here and there and of course some minor or irrelevant losses here and there, life is good, they love the market. Then, after all their indicators announce a new bull market is in the makings, they commit all their capital.... suddenly, the market tanks. “What happened? Is it because I didn’t do proper research” They think. In no time, the conversion to the other side of the “force” happens. The idolatry to Soros has been replaced to one to Benjamin Graham. “Stuff those stupid charts” they say, after all, they now know and understand that their stocks have “intrinsic” value and if they hold long enough they will come back one day. Guess what? That never happens. end result? They end up in even deeper sh*t.




Thats right no matter what you have to stick to your plan, whether you are an investor of a trader,

( provided you had a sound plan in the first place)


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> I thought I would post these 2 videos to give some perspective to those who have been freaked out by the recent falls.




Tyson,

Re the first video you posted, fair comment from the old fart regarding long term investment of stock, yet you seem to reject this thinking when it comes to property.

Cognitive dissonance?


----------



## RexBudman (12 August 2011)

Julia said:


> "Fire in your eyes"?   "Revenge"?   Ditch the emotional rhetoric and take a considered approach to actually acquiring some education.
> 
> 
> What nonsense.




True


----------



## Tysonboss1 (12 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Re the first video you posted, fair comment from the old fart regarding long term investment of stock, yet you seem to reject this thinking when it comes to property.




In what way. I am a longterm investor in property. I have made many posts in the property thread saying this.


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> In what way. I am a longterm investor in property. I have made many posts in the property thread saying this.




Review Warren's comments, which you apparently endorse, then review your comments in the property thread.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (12 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Review Warren's comments, which you apparently endorse, then review your comments in the property thread.




I know what warren said, and I know what I have said, But I don't know what you think I have said.


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I know what warren said, and I know what I have said, But I don't know what you think I have said.




I know what Warren said and I know what you said, but I have no idea what you think you said.

What did you think you said?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (12 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I know what Warren said and I know what you said, but I have no idea what you think you said.
> 
> What did you think you said?




Why don't you just link an example of somthing that I have said on the property thread that opposes the view that lower prices are good for investors in the accumulation phase. I don't think I have every said I am against property price falls, I have said that in my opinion I didn't think it was likely, But if it happened I would welcome it.

Here is a thread I started 18months ago which I explained my thoughts, and I used the abstract example of car spaces (which are a property investment)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18576


----------



## LifeChoices (12 August 2011)

Why is it that the dow jones is doing so much better than the xao. We are told all the time that our economy is so much stronger than theirs and everyone elses, yet this year the xao is doing more than 20% worse than their index. I just don't get it.

If you got to yahoo charts and compare them to this time last year or since the GFC they are outperforming us by a long shot.







I posted the same question here yesterday, but it got buried - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8168&p=651023#post651023

so if you have got some thoughts, I think peeps may be happier if they are posted there.


----------



## tech/a (12 August 2011)

Different scales.
The XAO is around 4200 and the DJIA 11200


----------



## drsmith (12 August 2011)

About half can be explained by currency variation. 

In August 2010 the $AUD averaged about $0.90US.


----------



## LifeChoices (12 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Different scales.
> The XAO is around 4200 and the DJIA 11200




But when you compare two stocks or two indexes on yahoo the chart that is produced comes out in percentages - so the scale shouldn't come into it.

Well Dr.

By the looks of it - if I invested AU$100 into the asx at the start of August last year today I would have about $90
However if I invested $US100 into the dow jones I would now have $110.

Still don't get why their index is doing better than ours.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Ah well, percentage wise im about 8%. How about you?
> 
> At around 22, i think we are doing well to be interested enough in investing to give it a go and learn lessons for the future.




Run with that, if that is truly want you want?!

About ~2 years ago, I starting trading with 3k, in the view that I would lose the lot, for exactly this reason.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

Just to stay on topic, does any see a world currency reserve change happening in the near term?

I do, within 5 years.

About 6, maybe more, maybe less months ago I read that OPEC was throwing the idea up of selling wares in something different that what it is at the moment.  And last night I watched an interview with an Indonesian Minister stating that G20 leaders are thinking along the same lines.


----------



## tech/a (12 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> But when you compare two stocks or two indexes on yahoo the chart that is produced comes out in percentages - so the scale shouldn't come into it.
> 
> Well Dr.
> 
> ...







You've a lot of learning ahead of you.


----------



## LifeChoices (12 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> View attachment 44004
> 
> 
> You've a lot of learning ahead of you.




Thanks, Ducky.

Why do the graphs you posted start at different points though - if we are comparing the two - wouldn't they start at the same place?

I'm going to look into this further.

I want to know if I had $200 and invested - $100 in the djia in Aug 2010 and $100 in the ASX which index would be better off in Aug 2011. 

Aside from the $US vs $AU it seems, according to yahoo charts I'd be much better off with DJI.


----------



## So_Cynical (12 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I find there is always too much emphasis on buying, and when to buy. Buying is incredibly easy.
> 
> Selling is much harder.
> 
> Being able to sell at the right time for the right price distinguishes a good trader from an amateur.




Good point...selling is the flip side of buying and thus perhaps just as important to consider, 2 things determin profit...the price you buy at and the price you sell for, and to expend on that perhaps the flip side of that is the price you don't buy at and the price you don't sell for. 

Selling at a loss because the market has moved outside your narrow comfort zone is not something im comfortable with.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Good point...selling is the flip side of buying and thus perhaps just as important to consider, 2 things determin profit...the price you buy at and the price you sell for, and to expend on that perhaps the flip side of that is the price you don't buy at and the price you don't sell for.
> 
> Selling at a loss because the market has moved outside your narrow comfort zone is not something im comfortable with.




If you trade once per day and make a modest 1%, how much do you make?  This is a compounding question and if you are unaware of it, what are you basing your exit strategy on?


----------



## Ves (12 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> If you trade once per day and make a modest 1%, how much do you make?  This is a compounding question and if you are unaware of it, what are you basing your exit strategy on?



Trade size? Brokerage? Tax? I can see your point, but there are some practical aspects to think of here.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

Ves said:


> Trade size? Brokerage? Tax? I can see your point, but there are some practical aspects to think of here.




Yes, that IS my point. here :alcohol::alcohol:

I look at everything as percentages!

Risk = percentage.
Investment = percentage.
Stop loss = percentage.
How much the market is manipulated by the 'big players' = percentage.

See what I am trying to do?  You have, but do others?


----------



## tech/a (12 August 2011)

Life

Your figures are about right.
The main reason would be a few Trillion Dollars
Whack that into our economy and watch the growth!


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Life
> 
> Your figures are about right.
> The main reason would be a few Trillion Dollars
> Whack that into our economy and watch the growth!




You talkin to me? (taxi)?


----------



## LifeChoices (12 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> If you trade once per day and make a modest 1%, how much do you make?  This is a compounding question and if you are unaware of it, what are you basing your exit strategy on?




ok.

If you invested $100 on Monday and the next day, Tuesday, you  made a modest 1% you would have $101

what do I win?


----------



## nomore4s (12 August 2011)

Remember the Dow is comprised of only 30 or so stocks.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> ok.
> 
> If you invested $100 on Monday and the next day, Tuesday, you  made a modest 1% you would have $101
> 
> what do I win?




Do it for a year and what do YOU win?


----------



## LifeChoices (12 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Do it for a year and what do YOU win?




Have you heard of the microsoft product called excel?

It's like this spreadsheet thing. Anyway, you can work it out from there. Ask Jeeves about it.

Ok, I'll do it for you.

on day one you invested $100 on day 365 you would have $3,740.93 if you made 1% everyday and compounded the interest

What do I win?


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Have you heard of the microsoft product called excel?
> 
> It's like this spreadsheet thing. Anyway, you can work it out from there. Ask Jeeves about it.
> 
> ...




Looks like you win 3640 odd bucks, so what percentage over the year has your portfolio increased.

While 365 is over realistic, I am sure you will get my point.


----------



## So_Cynical (12 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> If you trade once per day and make a modest 1%, how much do you make?  This is a compounding question and if you are unaware of it, what are you basing your exit strategy on?




I don't day trade, while my comfort zone is broad, its most definitely not ultra short term...i often think that the major "edge" i have is time, its one of my great advantages over the ultra short term punters.

Its like the ultra short term holders dump stock because the market has moved out of there short term comfort zone right into my long term comfort zone...and so there's a transfer of wealth from them to me...lest that's how it feels sometimes.



Bill M said:


> I do not need to redeem my capital nor do I have a margin loan, no forced selling from this investor. Keep up the good work, there is nothing like those dividend cheques coming in.




Hey Bill...i would be interested to know just how many dividend and distribution cheques did you get last financial year? 

For the record i received 36 payments.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I don't day trade, while my comfort zone is broad, its most definitely not ultra short term...i often think that the major "edge" i have is time, its one of my great advantages over the ultra short term punters.
> 
> Its like the ultra short term holders dump stock because the market has moved out of there short term comfort zone right into my long term comfort zone...and so there's a transfer of wealth from them to me...lest that's how it feels sometimes.




I agree that time is often overlooked.

When I said 'one trade a day' I did not mean intraday, or day trading.  I meant for one given day, a profit of 1% was made.

I do not understand this 'comfort zone' you speak of, can you elaborate?


----------



## So_Cynical (12 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> I do not understand this 'comfort zone' you speak of, can you elaborate?




I've only recently begun to understand the full implications of comfort zones and how they affect behaviour in the individual...in life you can pretty much put any human behaviour in the context of personal comfort zones...a space where the individual is comfortable and thus able to operation rationally and deliberately.

Move them outside that zone, or move the zone and panic and irrationality will begin...if we use trend following as an example one could say that certain people are attracted to trend following because they feel comfortable doing it and have success because they can act with deliberate and rational thought and so profit using the rules of trend following.

Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.

Least that's how ive come to look at it.


----------



## Ves (12 August 2011)

Funnily enough, not investment related, but I had a conversation about comfort zones tonight with a close friend. He left his comfortable job, became more sociable (he was a bit of a shut in). He now earns a better salary, enjoys his job, has expanded his friendship group, is seeing a new girl etc. 

Funny what taking a risk does. Comfort zones arent the end of the world.


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I've only recently begun to understand the full implications of comfort zones and how they affect behaviour in the individual...in life you can pretty much put any human behaviour in the context of personal comfort zones...a space where the individual is comfortable and thus able to operation rationally and deliberately.
> 
> Move them outside that zone, or move the zone and panic and irrationality will begin...if we use trend following as an example one could say that certain people are attracted to trend following because they feel comfortable doing it and have success because they can act with deliberate and rational thought and so profit using the rules of trend following.
> 
> ...




From what I understand I can understand your point of view.  It has it's roots in psychology.

I am no expert in this by any means, but have researched the subject for my own wellbeing and personal interest. 

And to elaborate I thing Jung's(?) views on the subconscious are correct!

Forgive me if I have misspelled this name, it is friday night and I have been drinking. :alcohol::alcohol:


----------



## Boggo (12 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say *in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do*, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...*so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding* and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.
> 
> Least that's how ive come to look at it.




Could be that they don't allow emotions to influence their trading and therefore they just apply one of of the three S's when it starts to cost money, ie, *S*ell, *S*ack or *S*top it.

Good traders don't allow emotions to influence their decisions, the market is just numbers that they work with, emotions distort common sense.

Some people allow themselves to be taken out of their comfort zone and then refuse to accept that that it is because of their actions (or inaction) so they look for comfort in blaming others...


So_Cynical said:


> so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding



or are in the business of not giving back profits


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Good traders don't allow emotions to influence their decisions




Impossible, we are emotional entities, it can not be done.  What the are saying is you have to MANAGE you emotions.


----------



## Boggo (12 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Impossible, we are emotional entities, it can not be done.  What the are saying is you have to MANAGE you emotions.




I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.

There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.

I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.
> 
> There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.
> 
> I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?




Ok, yes, emotion CAN be denied.  Why are you buying stock?  Do you want to succeed(emotion)?


----------



## So_Cynical (12 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.
> 
> There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.
> 
> I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?




Your doing what you feel comfortable doing and your arguably comfortable with it because you know it works for you....your comfort zone includes taking regular small losses...mine doesn't.

Its not about me not accepting reality or being emotional, as anyone can see in my sig i have 12 losing Trades, proof positive that i have been wrong before and accepted that and exited those trades at a loss.


----------



## Boggo (13 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Ok, yes, emotion CAN be denied.  Why are you buying stock?  Do you want to succeed(emotion)?




I want to retire early, play golf, ride my bike and take regular holidays.

The end result may have some emotion associated with it if you dig deep enough but you just cannot allow emotion to be a factor or influence in the process of getting there, if you did you would never get there.
Trying to apportion the blame for a poor performance in an erratic market on the assumption that the comfort zones of others have caused the markets to fall is definitely a sign of a form of emotion.


----------



## So_Cynical (13 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Trying to apportion the blame for a poor performance in an erratic market on the assumption that the comfort zones of others have caused the markets to fall is definitely a sign of a form of emotion.




Because im looking to 'blame' something to satisfy an emotional need? :cwm10:

I tend to want to have an understanding of why anything happens, ive never thought of it as an emotional need, more a logical need because if i can understand something then i can have empathy and thus a more whole, complete view...see things from the opposite view point and so gain a greater understanding.

Comfort zones are a very easy tool to use in understanding pretty much any human behaviour..this thread for example is a panic thread started by someone who clearly felt uncomfortable with what was happening in the market.

2 years ago at close to the bottom (for Golds stocks) of the first GFC dip, someone sold me shares in TRY for $0.77 CPS ~ sold the other day for $4.07

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2299&p=362067&viewfull=1#post362067 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2299&p=651063&viewfull=1#post651063

Now ive often wondered who in there right mind sells stock in a profitable, unhedged gold miner with no debt and 60 million in cash producing 5000 ounces per month...in the middle of an unprecedented gold bull run?

i can only imagine that who ever sold me those shares that day was felling very uncomfortable or they were totally demented...anyway ive been wanting to publicly thank them so here it is.

Thank you, thank you, thank you...who ever you are.


----------



## skc (13 August 2011)

skc said:


> We can't keep free falling like this for too much longer...
> 
> Buying today would probably see one in profit by the end of the week. But unless those profits are taken, heavy losses by end of the month is also a likely scenario.




I never thought this would come true but what do you know. However, if you did buy Monday and set sensible stop losses you probably got stopped out all on Tuesday morning and still    now. Another example of "it's hard to make money even if you are right".



So_Cynical said:


> I tend to want to have an understanding of why anything happens, ive never thought of it as an emotional need, more a logical need because if i can understand something then i can have empathy and thus a more whole, complete view...see things from the opposite view point and so gain a greater understanding.
> 
> Comfort zones are a very easy tool to use in understanding pretty much any human behaviour..this thread for example is a panic thread started by someone who clearly felt uncomfortable with what was happening in the market.




I think that's not a bad way to explain things. I just don't know what practical use you can make out of this theory/explanation. In fact it might be an impediment. You might think that people are only selling because they are out of their comfort zone in a volatile market, while they are in fact selling because they are correct in their assessment of the situation.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 August 2011)

The Gumnut "Buy Ute" is garaged.

One only needs to buy once or twice a decade.

Roll on Wave 3.

gg


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 August 2011)

It's over.

Stop panicking.

The eurobulls are stampeding for the Wild West rodeo - buy your tickets for the show before they runout..

Enjoy the party, dudes!


----------



## notting (13 August 2011)

> Enjoy the party, dudes!



Parties over! Think I'm going to take a nap.


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## Bill M (13 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Hey Bill...i would be interested to know just how many dividend and distribution cheques did you get last financial year?
> 
> For the record i received 36 payments.




I manage both mine and the wifes portfolio, between us we got about 44 dividend drops. It doesn't sound like much but I have some large holdings like TLS that pay close to 10% FF yield. As an exercise with TLS (for example only, not suggesting this is a good idea) one could hold 400K worth of that stock and pull 40K a year in dividends tax paid. That is near $800 bucks a week, some people work a year for that kind of money. I have a portfolio full of dividend payers with some preference shares paying 13% gross dividend. It is those kind of stocks I buy when everyone sells them at ridiculously low prices, cheers.


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## tech/a (13 August 2011)

Bill
All well and good if your holding remains at least 10%
more than your initial or accumulated purchase price.
TLS was considered cheap ---- once ---- at $ 6.

Purchasing purely for dividends can be very costly
If the core holding continues to tank
A deminishing dividend doest instil confidence in the future


----------



## RandR (13 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Bill
> All well and good if your holding remains at least 10%
> more than your initial or accumulated purchase price.
> TLS was considered cheap ---- once ---- at $ 6.
> ...




If it has negative 5% earnings growth (comsec forecast) ... where do people expect there 10% dividend to continue coming from ?


----------



## alexc2005 (13 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Bill
> All well and good if your holding remains at least 10%
> more than your initial or accumulated purchase price.
> TLS was considered cheap ---- once ---- at $ 6.
> ...




You seem to be very negative about everything?

Or do you just look at everything from a purely technical point of view?

Are you still of the mindset that the worst is yet to come?

Dividend trading can be very successful if you are good at it. Many people make their money this way..

Obviously you have to be smart about it though because the share will shed its div price when it goes ex div. You just have to be sure it will recover + a bit to get your advantage.


----------



## mr. jeff (13 August 2011)

QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year. 



4 year chart. OUCH.
(blue chip all the way, can't go wrong, pays a great reliable dividend yield, always about 6%.  6% x $ 13 = 0.78 cps,   0.78 cps / $34.00 ps = 2.3 cps plus you have 62% capital loss. Be careful which stocks pay dividends for you.

A bit off topic for the ASX is tanking panic thread but maybe I can encourage people to talk shorts on the shorting thread now that the weeks of panic are over. Or are they?


----------



## VSntchr (13 August 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year.
> 
> View attachment 44030
> 
> ...




Good proof of why you shouldnt even buy extraordinary businesses if they are expensive (like QBE was at ~$30)...
IMO its only now starting too come into value. That said I wouldnt be suprised to see it go closer to $10....


----------



## tech/a (13 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> You seem to be very negative about everything?




*ALEX* do you actually read the content of my posts or do you simply form a view with no thought on the matter posted?



> Or do you just look at everything from a purely technical point of view?




Clinical yes. like any business and I have a few.



> Are you still of the mindset that the worst is yet to come?




Dont know that its a "mindset" but all analysis points that way both technically and fundamentally in the long term and at *THIS POINT* in time. I'm certainly not long term bullish.



> Dividend trading can be very successful if you are good at it. Many people make their money this way..




If your talking about dividend stripping then yes in a bull market it "Can" be but try it in a bear market.!



> Obviously you have to be smart about it though because the share will shed its div price when it goes ex div. You just have to be sure it will recover + a bit to get your advantage.




Here is a few Hrs reading on the topic.
Rosella was the best I've ever seen on the topic.

http://aussiestockforums.com.au/forums/showthread.php?t=454


----------



## Julia (13 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I don't day trade, while my comfort zone is broad, its most definitely not ultra short term...i often think that the major "edge" i have is time, its one of my great advantages over the ultra short term punters.



How have you objectively and actually determined that you do have a "major edge" over "ultra short term punters?"



> Hey Bill...i would be interested to know just how many dividend and distribution cheques did you get last financial year?
> 
> For the record i received 36 payments.



I'd have thought the net amount of dividends would be rather more relevant than the number of cheques!



Bill M said:


> I manage both mine and the wifes portfolio, between us we got about 44 dividend drops. It doesn't sound like much but I have some large holdings like TLS that pay close to 10% FF yield. As an exercise with TLS (for example only, not suggesting this is a good idea) one could hold 400K worth of that stock and pull 40K a year in dividends tax paid. That is near $800 bucks a week, some people work a year for that kind of money. I have a portfolio full of dividend payers with some preference shares paying 13% gross dividend.



How is your capital going, Bill?  Growing?  Down?  



So_Cynical said:


> I've only recently begun to understand the full implications of comfort zones and how they affect behaviour in the individual...in life you can pretty much put any human behaviour in the context of personal comfort zones...a space where the individual is comfortable and thus able to operation rationally and deliberately.
> 
> Move them outside that zone, or move the zone and panic and irrationality will begin...if we use trend following as an example one could say that certain people are attracted to trend following because they feel comfortable doing it and have success because they can act with deliberate and rational thought and so profit using the rules of trend following.



Or alternatively you could eschew such emotional notions as comfort zones and say that trend followers (or followers of any given technique) have objectively worked out that this offers them the best means of preserving capital and profits, and minimising losses.



> Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.



Oh please, SC.   Markets fall quickly because a massive number of unconnected people are all sitting around navel gazing and contemplating their 'comfort zones'???

It's no more complicated than the fact that if an uptrend has reversed, we will preserve our profits by exiting the stock.  It's a purely objective, non-emotional decision.



Boggo said:


> Could be that they don't allow emotions to influence their trading and therefore they just apply one of of the three S's when it starts to cost money, ie, *S*ell, *S*ack or *S*top it.
> 
> Good traders don't allow emotions to influence their decisions, the market is just numbers that they work with, emotions distort common sense.






Boggo said:


> I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.
> 
> There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.
> 
> I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?



Zackly.


----------



## Julia (13 August 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year.
> 
> View attachment 44030
> 
> ...



 QBE is a great example of the futility of buying because (a) it has a decent dividend, and/or (b) It's a so called great business.

This is the thing I just don't get about so many who buy for yield.  That's fine if the stock is also growing, or at least trading sideways, but to hold on to a stock where you are losing capital at a far greater rate than your grossed up dividend just makes no sense to me.

Unless, perhaps, you're washed up in a nursing home, don't care about your capital any more, and just need the income to pay the fees.


----------



## Ves (13 August 2011)

Julia said:


> How is your capital going, Bill?  Growing?  Down?



One thing I have always wondered is; if you have a stock that provides a steadily growing income stream (compared to when you bought it 10 years ago, obviously TLS does not come into this equation) why do you care about short-term capital fluctuations?

Then again, show me a stock with consistent historical dividend growth that has a declining historical share price.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 August 2011)

Bill M said:


> I manage both mine and the wifes portfolio, between us we got about 44 dividend drops. It doesn't sound like much but I have some large holdings like TLS that pay close to 10% FF yield. As an exercise with TLS (for example only, not suggesting this is a good idea) one could hold 400K worth of that stock and pull 40K a year in dividends tax paid. That is near $800 bucks a week, some people work a year for that kind of money. I have a portfolio full of dividend payers with some preference shares paying 13% gross dividend. It is those kind of stocks I buy when everyone sells them at ridiculously low prices, cheers.




Good one Bill.

gg


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## Bill M (13 August 2011)

Julia said:


> How is your capital going, Bill?  Growing?  Down?




In all honestly TLS is down, on paper for the batch that I have now. But I bought and sold this stock heavily at the T3 float. I originally sold 20,000 TLS stock that was in 2 names and that I paid $3.60 for. They hit $4.60 after the float and I sold off the lot for a profit. Then I waited a while and re bought them for lower prices. Although TLS is in the red for this batch I am about square on the capital part of it. In the years since T3 the dividend has been happily collected. TLS is by no means the star of the portfolio.

I do a full weekly summary of all my assets, down to the final calculation, as is warts and all. My portfolio is still going up and I am well up from last year however my portfolio has not increased since February this year. Well it has but this correction has bought me back to February. I am not at all worried about this, it is well positioned for when the market does finally kick off. To be holding firm (for this year) considering all the spending I do and with the major correction that we are experiencing I think that is not such a bad position. Just to clarify to those that don't know me, I am a self funded retiree, I am not a trader of any sorts. I spend several Months a year travelling outside of OZ and I do not need to look at a computer screen daily to manage my investments, cheers.


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## tech/a (13 August 2011)

Bill
As a self funded retiree
Where do you get funds to " buy heavily " in this down turn.?

Or do you have superfluous passive income-- a fair bit of it!


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## Bill M (13 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Bill
> As a self funded retiree
> Where do you get funds to " buy heavily " in this down turn.?
> 
> Or do you have superfluous passive income-- a fair bit of it!




I hoard my dividends and put it in UBANK until these downturns come, then I buy but not all at once. I should say, now I do not buy heavily just small parcels these days. Still have some dry powder should it drift to 3800 again. While I am at it, I read your commentary in the XAO Technical Analysis thread, it is very useful and helpful to us all, cheers.


----------



## notting (13 August 2011)

I think this dog is ready for a good run in the next 12 months.  They looked so smug at the meet and with the new wireless tech coming down the line they are very well positioned.
One head wind apart from the idiot running the future fund, I see is the fact that they have had to agree not to price too cheaply to make it hard for the NBN.  Can you believe that?


----------



## LifeChoices (13 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Remember the Dow is comprised of only 30 or so stocks.




Thanks for that. I think your post is closest to explaining the large discrepancy between the dow and the xao.

Now that everything is fixed in Europe and the US someone should reopen the "buy with open arms" thread


----------



## wayneL (13 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Bill
> As a self funded retiree
> Where do you get funds to " buy heavily " in this down turn.?
> 
> Or do you have superfluous passive income-- a fair bit of it!




I've asked this question of others elsewhere.

Folks talk as if fully invested and suddenly have boxes of cash when the market goes down the ****-chute.

Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular, but I think there is a fair bit of embellishment at times here.


----------



## notting (13 August 2011)

Chips for dinner anyone?


----------



## LifeChoices (13 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I've asked this question of others elsewhere.
> 
> Folks talk as if fully invested and suddenly have boxes of cash when the market goes down the ****-chute.
> 
> Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular, but I think there is a fair bit of embellishment at times here.




Yeah, I know where you are coming from. Lots of fakes here.

If you have endless boxes of money - why even bother with the stock market and this forum. Posts are often about buying in the downturn. I think some peeps must have some very sad lives.

Being in this game is about buying and selling - It seems a lot of people only brag about buying when the market is tanked and people are panicking - very rarely do you hear about people bragging about selling when the market is peaking.


----------



## Ves (13 August 2011)

Why is it such a stretch to believe that most people have cash reserves?

Do you two seriously put every dollar that you have into the market at any one time? 

Sounds like the joke is on you if you do not have any cash reserves.


----------



## notting (13 August 2011)

> It seems a lot of people only brag about buying when the market is tanked and people are panicking - very rarely do you hear about people bragging about selling when the market is peaking.




Maybe they sold too early and feel like idiots, then get very excited when they can finally buy again and feel vindicated. 

However, I feel sorry for the old holders! In a market like this.
Yet being up front makes for a better forum! 
I did notice a bit of day account flashing from day traders after one or two good one's amidst *many*!!


----------



## NewTrade (13 August 2011)

Hello everyone - I'm kinda new here. I ran a search on Dividends and got here.

I wanted to ask a quick question, and that is; are dividend paying stocks really the best conservative means to investing for regular income? What are the real downfalls of dividends?

I don't understand dividends too much but am reading certain articles on them at the moment - though I wanted an experienced investors POV...

My brief stint in investing was actually not that bad, however if I had held my stocks longer, around a year, I would have gotten a huge profit - roughly 28K per every thousand dollars invested in this particular company. It was a speculative stock that really payed off, as they were 0.03 and hit 0.90 in 12 months. So I thought to myself perhaps mid/long term investing would be better, and on that note wish to know more about the real pitfalls of dividend stocks...


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## drsmith (13 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> So I thought to myself perhaps mid/long term investing would be better, and on that note wish to know more about the real pitfalls of dividend stocks...



The biggie is companies that pay out more in dividends than they earn in profits as this is obviously unstainable over the long haul.


----------



## notting (13 August 2011)

> So I thought to myself perhaps mid/long term investing would be better, and on that note wish to know more about the real pitfalls of dividend stocks...



Another would be decreasing earnings per share as apposed to increasing, also share buy backs can make earning per share appear better than they really are when it comes to assessing over all company performance.
A basic Dogs of the Dow stratergy is a popular and relativly successful stratergy.


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## NewTrade (13 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> The biggie is companies that pay out more in dividends than they earn in profits as this is obviously unstainable over the long haul.




I can see how that would become an issue.

Do dividends pay out decent amounts? That could be a rather silly question but the underlying sentiment is whether or not dividends can be a decent method of making an income?


----------



## Julia (13 August 2011)

Bill M said:


> In all honestly TLS is down, on paper for the batch that I have now. But I bought and sold this stock heavily at the T3 float. I originally sold 20,000 TLS stock that was in 2 names and that I paid $3.60 for. They hit $4.60 after the float and I sold off the lot for a profit. Then I waited a while and re bought them for lower prices. Although TLS is in the red for this batch I am about square on the capital part of it. In the years since T3 the dividend has been happily collected. TLS is by no means the star of the portfolio.
> 
> I do a full weekly summary of all my assets, down to the final calculation, as is warts and all. My portfolio is still going up and I am well up from last year however my portfolio has not increased since February this year. Well it has but this correction has bought me back to February. I am not at all worried about this, it is well positioned for when the market does finally kick off. To be holding firm (for this year) considering all the spending I do and with the major correction that we are experiencing I think that is not such a bad position. Just to clarify to those that don't know me, I am a self funded retiree, I am not a trader of any sorts. I spend several Months a year travelling outside of OZ and I do not need to look at a computer screen daily to manage my investments, cheers.




Thanks, Bill.  
So, can you say if you were buying a company which offers what you consider a decent dividend and the SP is in a downtrend, is that an acceptable buy for you?

What's your comment about Mr Jeff's post including the chart of QBE which shows a 62% fall in the value of the capital?

No obligation, of course, Bill, but if you were to share a list of the companies you own, I'd be interested.


----------



## Bill M (13 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Thanks, Bill.
> So, can you say if you were buying a company which offers what you consider a decent dividend and the SP is in a downtrend, is that an acceptable buy for you?




Not if it keeps going down day after day, week after week. Eventually it will stop then I might take a look at it.



> What's your comment about Mr Jeff's post including the chart of QBE which shows a 62% fall in the value of the capital?




That is a woeful performance, it is at 7 year lows right now. I nearly bought this stock at $16, glad I didn't but I feel the bottom will be nearing soon. Right now I am only watching it, not a great deal of interest right now but this could change. There are less risky stocks out there like the hybrids. During this correction CBAPA hit $195, CBA must repurchase at $200 whilst paying a very healthy yield in the mean time. Within 3 days everybody woke up and the price closed at $203.94 yesterday, it is these types of opportunities I take up on, cheers.


----------



## wayneL (13 August 2011)

Ves said:


> Why is it such a stretch to believe that most people have cash reserves?



No. Just saying the comments at different points in the market don't match



> Do you two seriously put every dollar that you have into the market at any one time?



I can't speak for life choices, but there are times when I am all cash, and times when I am not, but I'm not primarily an investor, I'm a trader so I tend to have a fair amount of cash on hand.



> Sounds like the joke is on you if you do not have any cash reserves.




No. Sounds like you have leapt to a delusion based on zero research.


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## LifeChoices (13 August 2011)

Ves said:


> Do you two seriously put every dollar that you have into the market at any one time?




At the moment my share portfolio is about 50% cash 50% invested. But yes in late 2007 I had everything invested in shares - I became quite greedy and paid a big price for it. 

Some of my most greedy investments included Bankbock & Brown and Centro. Some days there were huge profits, however ultimately the market killed me and I lost and was forced to take a back seat for a few years.

Between 2004 - 2007 we were all experts - it didn't really matter, everything was a winner.

The GFC has been a great learning curve. I'm still down about 20% on what I started with, but I've got a good plan and step by step I'm just clawing it slowly back now, even in this tough market.

If I've learnt anything, over the past few years in trading. It's more about selling than buying.

At the end of this experience, I know I will become a better trader.


----------



## craft (13 August 2011)

Julia said:


> QBE is a great example of the futility of buying because (a) it has a decent dividend, and/or (b) It's a so called great business.
> 
> This is the thing I just don't get about so many who buy for yield.  That's fine if the stock is also growing, or at least trading sideways, but to hold on to a stock where you are losing capital at a far greater rate than your grossed up dividend just makes no sense to me.
> 
> Unless, perhaps, you're washed up in a nursing home, don't care about your capital any more, and just need the income to pay the fees.



 What If

What If your time frame is longer?

What if you only buy when you feel the price is right?

What if you had purchased QBE in 2001 after 9/11 for say $5.00? although it was available for as low as $3.30ish.

Dividends paid since then have been $8.31 franked to about 40ish %

What if you were not an omniscient investor and didn’t sell at $30+ dollars because of the CGT implications and the fact you didn’t know it was about to fall to $13 bucks even if it did seem a little expensive. Or you had your eye off the ball because you were too busy living life?

What If we could be so dumb as to miss the $30+ sell price and still be holding with a measly 22.5%pa IRR (not including franking) for one good decision in 10 years?

What If


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

A most dangerous post!

I hope this isn't too out there for people. On selling.  just take it as an observation.

I'v always had a little interest in being a bit of an omniscient invester!

Well, OK, at least one that every now and then just clearly sees something.

I know it's totally stupid to trust your gut and all of that.  Totally stupid to think that it will work all the time or most of the time or even a little bit of the time.

But every now and then, infact quite a lot I'll go to make a trade and I'll get this weird weight in my arm as it goes to move the mouse and I often ignore it and it turns out that the weight was correct in that I shouldn't have taken the trade.

Fear can be a factor of course, so I need to constantly question it when it happens and learn to see the difference between the two.  For instance if it is in my guts it tends to be fear or if it just like my presence sense body energy hard to describe buy everyone one has it then it's accurate if it's clear.

It's a bit like kicking for gaol. Or tossing a bit of screwed up paper into a bin. Sometimes you just know your not not going to nail it.  Doesn't matter what you do it's just not going through the sticks or in the bin.  So you pass it off to another player, everyone thinks your crazy to have done that and clearly should have taken the shot.  

My experience tells me when you take the shot in that situation you end up losing.  
We are feely creatures, possibly even more than thinky creature.

This is quite complex but is just something I note.  Rather than act upon when it comes to identifying a trade.  Once I have identified a trade, then begin to act on it if that sense occurs pull out you need to be quite disciplined.

Though I have acted on it a couple of times and it worked very nicely for a fresh buy.

I'm aware of deeper intelligence that is not necessarily cognative.  

It's just interesting. 

Better not to be stresses or full of testoserone or making bold regular trades.

I have had three really clear sell signals when I felt it would be good to sell my entire portfolio.  Every time they were accurate to the day!  I took none of them because things were going well and it just seemed like the recent fun was going to be spoilt.  Not today surely.  I paid dearly!

When I sell too early which is almost all of the time, so far, oddly enough in the light of the above it's usually based on reason which of course is counter to markets that well - you know. 
 I understand trailing stops and all that.
I'm just sighting this because it shouldn't be completely ignored. I'm working on it.

I'm expecting to have the courage to act if it happens again. 

Gotta remember that it will happen when I almost least want to sell.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (14 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I know what Warren said and I know what you said, but I have no idea what you think you said.
> 
> What did you think you said?






Tysonboss1 said:


> Why don't you just link an example of somthing that I have said on the property thread that opposes the view that lower prices are good for investors in the accumulation phase. I don't think I have every said I am against property price falls, I have said that in my opinion I didn't think it was likely, But if it happened I would welcome it.
> 
> Here is a thread I started 18months ago which I explained my thoughts, and I used the abstract example of car spaces (which are a property investment)
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18576




Still waiting for an answer to this one wayne,



wayneL said:


> I've asked this question of others elsewhere.
> 
> Folks talk as if fully invested and suddenly have boxes of cash when the market goes down the ****-chute.
> 
> Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular, but I think there is a fair bit of embellishment at times here.




Some of us have successful businesses that produce a steady flow of cash that we can put to work, not to mention rental payments from property and dividends rolling in.

not to mention that some of us might see fit to start a conservative plan of deploy some capital from debt if markets turn down.


----------



## Ferret (14 August 2011)

Julia said:


> QBE is a great example of the futility of buying because (a) it has a decent dividend, and/or (b) It's a so called great business.




And isn't it funny that QBE seems to be one of those stocks that brokers always have a buy on!


----------



## So_Cynical (14 August 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year.
> 
> View attachment 44030
> 
> ...






Julia said:


> What's your comment about Mr Jeff's post including the chart of QBE which shows a 62% fall in the value of the capital?






craft said:


> What If
> 
> What If your time frame is longer?
> 
> ...






Ferret said:


> And isn't it funny that QBE seems to be one of those stocks that brokers always have a buy on!




The QBE 10 year chart shows 6 up years 1 flat year and 4 down years and a total 10 year return with divis of about $15 per share (gross)...hardly a Disastrous long term investment.  a 10 year gross return of around 146% with no compounding...lol and that's the absolute worst case scenario for selling after 2005.
~


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Still waiting for an answer to this one wayne,




Well I'm not going to trawl through the thread to do a he said she said, so let's just take your word for it.



> *Some of us* have successful businesses that produce a steady flow of cash that we can put to work, not to mention rental payments from property and dividends rolling in.
> 
> not to mention that some of us might see fit to start a conservative plan of deploy some capital from debt if markets turn down.




That's fine Tyson, but we both know some here post stuff that doesn't have the ring of truth, some of it just obviously imaginary. I'm sorry if you feel that I implicated you personally, but if you look, I pointed the finger at no individual.

If it makes you feel better, I wasn't thinking of you when I typed that.


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

We must be board.
Bring the markets back on so we can start panicing again.
QBE - Re insurance seems to believe in global warming. 
Investers believe in the au$ till recently.
Flat earnings in bonds - obvious.
If re insurance is wrong it's a screamer in my opion.
Believe in it or not?


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2011)

notting said:


> We must be bored.
> Bring the markets back on so we can start panicing again.
> QBE - Re insurance seems to believe in global warming.
> Investors believe in the au$ till recently.
> ...




That's a good point actually.

However there may be some artifact there. It seems to me (and I've seen some figures somewhere to back this up, just can't remember where) that more people are living in areas subject to weather events.

Even if AGW is a furphy, risk is still higher because of increasing numbers in these areas.


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

Something to read if your really, really board.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming

Adding to that, when the planes were stopped for 3 days after 9/11 temperatures soared measurably against days with simalar conditions at that time in NY!


----------



## Ves (14 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> That's fine Tyson, but we both know some here post stuff that doesn't have the ring of truth, some of it just obviously imaginary. I'm sorry if you feel that I implicated you personally, but if you look, I pointed the finger at no individual.



I will agree that on any forum at any one time that there will be a _small majority_ that post as if they have made a killing out of the market's misfortune. But it is no small stretch, especially in a forum with lots of "value" investors that there are plenty of cashed up and willing posters ready to try to make a killing from any pull-back. 

I reacted to when you said there was a "fair bit" (ie. Aussie slang for "a lot") of dishonesty. Perhaps I misinterpreted your intentions, but you have said it several times lately! 

No harm intended.


----------



## mazzatelli (14 August 2011)

Ves said:


> I will agree that on any forum at any one time that there will be a *small majority* that post as if they have made a killing out of the market's misfortune.




What's small majority aussie slang for?


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2011)

Ves said:


> I will agree that on any forum at any one time that there will be a _small majority_ that post as if they have made a killing out of the market's misfortune. But it is no small stretch, especially in a forum with lots of "value" investors that there are plenty of cashed up and willing posters ready to try to make a killing from any pull-back.
> 
> I reacted to when you said there was a "fair bit" (ie. Aussie slang for "a lot") of dishonesty. Perhaps I misinterpreted your intentions, but you have said it several times lately!
> 
> No harm intended.




Actually I've said it only twice. 

You haven't been here long, but ASF has had to contend with a lot of bogus claims and hindsight success, so forgive the cynicism. 

But it is necessary to keep things a bit real.

Just a point... I am fairly well acquainted with Aussie slang


----------



## NewTrade (14 August 2011)

I am seeing a lot of talk about dividends, lol. What is the largest dividend cheque any of you has recieved based on their holdings and outlayed capital? I know it isn't going to be Lotto, but still curious


----------



## nulla nulla (14 August 2011)

Ves said:


> I will agree that on any forum at any one time that there will be a _*small majority*_ that post as if they have made a killing out of the market's misfortune.




Slightly contradictory, do you mean "small minority"?


----------



## nulla nulla (14 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I am seeing a lot of talk about dividends, lol. What is the largest divident cheque anyone has recieved based on their holdings and outlayed capital? I know it isn't going to be Lotto, but still curious




I purchased MAP in my SMSF many years back. 10,000 x $0.86 and I have held them ever since. Since then the dividends received have repaid the initial capital outlay and the price has risen (and fallen) to the current $3.13. 

MAP has announced the pending swap of their interest in Copenhagen and Brussels Airports with a Canadian Superannuation fund for further interest in Sydney Airport plus some cash. As a result they plan to do a special div of $0.80.

While the special div will be a respectable $8,000.00, it will also represent a return on capital of 93%.

Just one of the reasons I didn't panic this last two weeks and won't panic in the next few weeks.


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

If I was a real wanka I could just make that up too


----------



## skc (14 August 2011)

mazzatelli said:


> What's small majority aussie slang for?




Bugger all.



notting said:


> I did notice a bit of day account flashing from day traders after one or two good one's amidst *many*!!




You talking to me? [The 2nd taxi driver reference in the same thread!]. Amidst many what? Many days or many day traders. I am not a day trader by the way, more like a week trader.



tech/a said:


> Different scales.
> The XAO is around 4200 and the DJIA 11200




Tech/a you said something nice towards me many pages ago (was it even this thread?) and I forgot to say thank you.



So_Cynical said:


> The QBE 10 year chart shows 6 up years 1 flat year and 4 down years and a total 10 year return with divis of about $15 per share (gross)...hardly a Disastrous long term investment.  a 10 year gross return of around 146% with no compounding...lol and that's the absolute worst case scenario for selling after 2005.
> ~




What was the entry? I hope you didn't pick the bottom after 9/11?! 

Lets say you (or any other person here who thinks QBE has been doing good in their portfolio) still hold. What will trigger a sell in the future? Only when you want to release the capital for some cash? Or something company related? e.g. Profits down 50%?


----------



## mazzatelli (14 August 2011)

notting said:


> If I was a real wanka I could just make that up too




You jelly, brah?


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

Sorry Chickie,
I wasn't talking to you just a general impression of the forum at that point which over all is very impressive.
I really like what you have to say and think your comments are worth squillions right up there with Ducky.
You should see my back yard, you'd love my pond.
I'll see if I can get a pic!

I'm a bit lazy but I found this one.
Hadn't been holding for very long either!!
23-Aug-10	TLS DIV @ 0.14                          	6720
I thought it was much bigger than that having just added it.  Must check something.
Disclaimer it can be a good trick to sell just befor div payments in falling sentiment - obvious 

Cheap Quack


----------



## NewTrade (14 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I purchased MAP in my SMSF many years back. 10,000 x $0.86 and I have held them ever since. Since then the dividends received have repaid the initial capital outlay and the price has risen (and fallen) to the current $3.13.
> 
> MAP has announced the pending swap of their interest in Copenhagen and Brussels Airports with a Canadian Superannuation fund for further interest in Sydney Airport plus some cash. As a result they plan to do a special div of $0.80.
> 
> ...




That is rather interesting. So what determines the price of a dividend?You made a purchase of 10,000 x 0.86 which means you recieved a dividend payout of 0.86 x 10,000 p/a respecitvley?


----------



## Julia (14 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Thanks, Bill.
> So, can you say if you were buying a company which offers what you consider a decent dividend and the SP is in a downtrend, is that an acceptable buy for you?
> 
> What's your comment about Mr Jeff's post including the chart of QBE which shows a 62% fall in the value of the capital?
> ...



I guess that was a 'no', then.  OK.  Thanks for other responses.



Ferret said:


> And isn't it funny that QBE seems to be one of those stocks that brokers always have a buy on!



Indeed.




NewTrade said:


> That is rather interesting. So what determines the price of a dividend?You made a purchase of 10,000 x 0.86 which means you recieved a dividend payout of 0.86 x 10,000 p/a respecitvley?



No.  the 86 c referred to above is the price per share.
The dividend amount is declared by the company and is announced when they report to the market twice yearly.

Have you had a look through the Beginners' Forum?  You'll find lots of what you're looking for there.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 August 2011)

notting said:


> If I was a real wanka I could just make that up too




I am sure there are other members that receive bigger dividend cheques, albiet at a lower percentage of their capital outlay. This one just happens to have worked out for me.


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

Me too.
You should see some of my losses.


----------



## NewTrade (14 August 2011)

Julia said:


> No.  the 86 c referred to above is the price per share.
> The dividend amount is declared by the company and is announced when they report to the market twice yearly.
> 
> Have you had a look through the Beginners' Forum?  You'll find lots of what you're looking for there.




Yes I am lurking thread as we speak - the question was answered by you before could get there, so thank you very much.

Perhaps I should spead some money into dividend paying stocks as well as my intermediate stocks and speculative stocks...

Thanks for the responses.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> That is rather interesting. So what determines the price of a dividend?You made a purchase of 10,000 x 0.86 which means you recieved a dividend payout of 0.86 x 10,000 p/a respecitvley?




The special dividend is the return to investors of the additional cash in the swap deal plus the release of surplus funds on hand.

The original outlay has returned an annual dividend over the years ranging between 11c to 21c per annum with a similar special div of 12.5c last year from the sale of their interests in the Mexican Airports. it does not return a div of $0.86c per annum.


----------



## Ves (14 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Slightly contradictory, do you mean "small minority"?




Yup. Too late to edit by the time I came back.


----------



## craft (14 August 2011)

skc said:


> Lets say you (or any other person here who thinks QBE has been doing good in their portfolio) still hold. What will trigger a sell in the future? Only when you want to release the capital for some cash? Or something company related? e.g. Profits down 50%?




Hi SKC

I put up a reason why somebody might hold QBE and it related to time frame and purchase price. This mimics my strategy which is basically, buy right and hold tight. Now hold tight doesn’t mean there are no sell criteria but they are valuation and business performance criteria and not market price related. 

QBE was expensive in 07 but so was everything else and there would have been CGT implications, All the same not selling on overvaluation would probably have been a mistake given the then available information and defiantly a mistake in hindsight. I actually don’t think there have been any business related sell triggers on QBE. One year Profit results wouldn’t be one of my sell triggers for a long term hold of an insurance company as I would expect them to fluctuate and cycle.

The past example I sighted used a buy price of $5 in 2001 and QBE’s closing price to show a hold over that period returned an IRR of 22.5%. If QBE went belly up tomorrow because they failed due to say counterparty default with their underwriters after a major catastrophe somewhere and their whole 10Billion of equity was eaten up in claims then the 2001 purchase would still return an IRR of nearly 10% pa. (unfranked) just on dividends received to date. That’s not too shabby for making a major blunder on a sell trigger and a catastrophic business failure scenario.

This is a hypothetical example, but if it was real and I had missed the overvaluation sell I would still be holding QBE warts and all, with my eye firmly fixed on the current business quality and what the return may look like looking backward from 2021. If the business quality/performance does falter shortly, I would be presented with a sell trigger and get out turning the light off as I leave knowing that my strategy means I’m sometimes the last one to leave the party, but that’s just the way it is because I haven’t found a way to have my cake and eat it too.  The outcome of any sale now would be northward of the 10%pa return from the catastrophic scenario which is not too bad for one decision in a decade. Lots of people work a lot harder for a lot less, if they are honest.


----------



## notting (14 August 2011)

Disclosure:





Unfortunatly I really am a cow.
Hence the typing and other issues.


----------



## LifeChoices (14 August 2011)

I know I should resist bottom feeding - however, QBE, CCC  and a few others are looking quite attractive right now.


----------



## skc (14 August 2011)

craft said:


> This is a hypothetical example, but if it was real and I had missed the overvaluation sell I would still be holding QBE warts and all, with my eye firmly fixed on the current business quality and what the return may look like looking backward from 2021. If the business quality/performance does falter shortly, I would be presented with a sell trigger and get out turning the light off as I leave knowing that my strategy means I’m sometimes the last one to leave the party, but that’s just the way it is because I haven’t found a way to have my cake and eat it too.  The outcome of any sale now would be northward of the 10%pa return from the catastrophic scenario which is not too bad for one decision in a decade. Lots of people work a lot harder for a lot less, if they are honest.




Thanks craft for the considered response. All the best with this strategy (and I mean it in a sincere way). In fact this is how my Mum buy/hold shares. I tried many times to tell her that the price she paid is called "sunk cost" and has nothing to do with whether she should hold or sell (she has little income and pays no tax). But I couldn't convince her so I am certainly not going to try that here .

Here's some news on QBE for those interested.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bond-collapse-sends-qbe-shares-south-20110811-1iow0.html

FWIW it sounds like a whole lot of BS. The bond hasn't collapse. Bond yield has. The bond itself has risen. The total interest QBE will be getting is the same on their existing holding (the US govn't doesn't pay variable rates, right?). Only new purchases are returning less and with the $A falling 10% surely they are ahead if not at least square. Not to mention the fact that, when they need to sell that bond to settle claims they will get a higher price...It's like saying that I am poorer because those CBA shares I hold are now yielding only 4% due to the share price going up 15%...


----------



## Tysonboss1 (14 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I am seeing a lot of talk about dividends, lol. What is the largest dividend cheque any of you has recieved based on their holdings and outlayed capital? I know it isn't going to be Lotto, but still curious




I think it was about $14,500.


----------



## alexc2005 (15 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I know I should resist bottom feeding - however, QBE, CCC  and a few others are looking quite attractive right now.




Mmm me too.

CCC has been whispering to me "buy me I'm cheap"

Should rally back up to 40c shortly also. Bonusss


----------



## VSntchr (15 August 2011)

skc said:


> Thanks craft for the considered response. All the best with this strategy (and I mean it in a sincere way). In fact this is how my Mum buy/hold shares. I tried many times to tell her that the price she paid is called "sunk cost" and has nothing to do with whether she should hold or sell (she has little income and pays no tax). But I couldn't convince her so I am certainly not going to try that here .
> 
> Here's some news on QBE for those interested.
> 
> ...




Great post!


----------



## McLovin (15 August 2011)

skc said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/business/bond-collapse-sends-qbe-shares-south-20110811-1iow0.html
> 
> FWIW it sounds like a whole lot of BS. The bond hasn't collapse. Bond yield has. The bond itself has risen. The total interest QBE will be getting is the same on their existing holding (the US govn't doesn't pay variable rates, right?). Only new purchases are returning less and with the $A falling 10% surely they are ahead if not at least square. Not to mention the fact that, when they need to sell that bond to settle claims they will get a higher price...It's like saying that I am poorer because those CBA shares I hold are now yielding only 4% due to the share price going up 15%...




Most of QBE's funds ($17/$23bln) are in floating rate notes and short term money not bonds, so changes in interest rates have a direct effect on their income. Nearly every insurance company will keep most of its investments short term, Berkshire is unique in the sense that it holds so many equity investments on its balance sheet. The average insurance company wouldn't want the risk of long dated fixed income (or equity) in its portfolio as it has to pay out a lot of those funds over the course of the year and needs the certainty of payback at maturity. QBE is still probably in the top 5 best run insurers in the World, despite the abnormal number of natural disasters it is still making a big underwriting profit, and I have been buying at the current levels.

Slighty OT, but I was having a look back on Google News Archive to the SMH Top 150 by market cap in 1987, QBE had a market cap the same size as OPSM!


----------



## Struzball (15 August 2011)

http://www.news.com.au/money/supera...snap-super-plans/story-e6frfmdi-1226114969687

Is Bill Shorten qualified to give financial advice?
I wonder what people would say if/when the market does indeed tank.


----------



## skc (15 August 2011)

And so the panic has ended... let me leave this thread with one final post and a chart.




You cannot get a candle that's more similar. Now does that mean we will see the same outcome over the next 12 months? Not necessarily, but what this candle shows us is that market is teetering on something. Personally I don't think the future is written yet - the butterfly effect probably applies here. Time will review the answer, while hindsight will prove how blindingly obvious the current situation is.

Good trading all and may good risk management be with you.


----------



## notting (15 August 2011)

CCC

Bait normally has just one hook in it.


----------



## nulla nulla (15 August 2011)

I wonder if we are not becoming to euphoric in our declarations that the slump has passed and it is blue skies and clear sailing ahead. After all most storms have a calm eye in the centre giving a false impression that the storm has passed.

Europe is still a mess, the U.S.A is still a mess and china is trying to rein in inflation. I respectfully suggest that we are not in the clear yet. 

Lock in some profits, tight stop losses and hold back some cash. Tonights international markets will be interesting.


----------



## nomore4s (15 August 2011)

skc said:


> And so the panic has ended... let me leave this thread with one final post and a chart.
> 
> View attachment 44063
> 
> ...




Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.

I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.

So while I think we could drift back down to test that 3700-4000 area again (in fact I'd be a little surprised if we didn't test at least 4000 again), unless we see some sort of major event from overseas markets I think we might have seen the lows for this year. How price reacts on the next leg down will be telling, I will definitely be expecting a more orderly retreat - if not it is a worrying sign imo. With the strength we saw in those 2 down days last week I would be very surprised to see our market push below 3700 this year without some sort of major trigger from overseas.

But in this current environment anything is possible.


----------



## skc (15 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.
> 
> I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.
> 
> ...




I don't disagree. But I do feel the current state of affairs are closer to start of 2008 than the end of that year. 

Perhaps I've been reading zerohedge too much...


----------



## nomore4s (16 August 2011)

skc said:


> I don't disagree. But I do feel the current state of affairs are closer to start of 2008 than the end of that year.
> 
> Perhaps I've been reading zerohedge too much...




Maybe but there are a few things to consider.
- We are not coming off a multi-year bull run
- The excessive leverage we saw at the top of the bullmarket is now drastically reduced

While I think we will see a bear market of some sort and test the lows at 3200-3400 in the next few years, I think we have seen the low for at least the next few months purely judging by the strength seen last week but of course that is no guarantee, especially in the current market. The major risk I see atm is a black swan event which of course renders all analysis pretty much useless.

Disclaimer:I'm purely a chartist and have little understanding or interest in economics, I trade off what the charts tell me.


----------



## littleshire (16 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Maybe but there are a few things to consider.
> - We are not coming off a multi-year bull run
> - The excessive leverage we saw at the top of the bullmarket is now drastically reduced



Have a look at the crash of 1929 (and subsequent bear market):
- in the first leg down the market fell 48%
- a recovery happened when the market bounced 48%
- the second drop was 86% and the market was not coming from a multi-year bull run and of course the market had de-leveraged at that point.

This is an extreme example of course but it shows the unpredictability of the market.

This panic has ended but because the major economies of the world are still in deep trouble more drops will come in due course, for the people that missed this drop, more will come... we just don't know when. Remember to be brave when everybody is fearful (to be more precise: be brave then the VIX spikes above 30).

Regards,


----------



## tech/a (16 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Have a look at the crash of 1929 (and subsequent bear market):
> - in the first leg down the market fell 48%
> - a recovery happened when the market bounced 48%
> - the second drop was 86% and the market was not coming from a multi-year bull run and of course the market had de-leveraged at that point.
> ...




Actually it makes complete sence and predictable--it will happen--eventually.
Heres why.

Have a look at the crash of 1929 (and subsequent bear market):
- in the first leg down the market fell 48%
*Reaction to events today its the US and European debt.*

- a recovery happened when the market bounced 48%
*Here is the over reaction (Not the sell off) here the astute sell into those who are "wise" enough to pick the bottom--last chance to get out.*

- the second drop was 86% and the market was not coming from a multi-year bull run and of course the market had de-leveraged at that point.
*Yes and it dropped 86% because all buyers had vacated.There was NO support supply was never ending. Its all set to repeat---how it will pan out and WHEN it will pan out is hard to say---but for mine sooner than later. 

Once those holding stock for Super get a sniff of an evaporating retirement fund the rush to the exit will be worse than a Fire in a stadium!*


----------



## mattyhammer (16 August 2011)

I'm not much of an educated investor (quite the opposite really) however I don't believe comparing what happens in current times can be comparable to what happened almost 100 years ago. The share market is vastly different due to many more investors, with quicker access to buy/sell (ie home pc's), the world is vastly different economical situations and rarely can we use the past to predict the future. We can learn from past situations and how to react to certain situations, but certainly it's not a platform from which to predict any future movement. Only time will tell.

Manage your stocks without emotion, have appropriate risk management strategies in place, and most of all...may the force be with you.


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2011)

mattyhammer said:


> I'm not much of an educated investor (quite the opposite really) however I don't believe comparing what happens in current times can be comparable to what happened almost 100 years ago. The share market is vastly different due to many more investors, with quicker access to buy/sell (ie home pc's), the world is vastly different economical situations and rarely can we use the past to predict the future. We can learn from past situations and how to react to certain situations, but certainly it's not a platform from which to predict any future movement. Only time will tell.
> 
> Manage your stocks without emotion, have appropriate risk management strategies in place, and most of all...may the force be with you.




Well you see this is the part that hasn't changed... and it's the most important part.


----------



## skc (16 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Maybe but there are a few things to consider.
> - We are not coming off a multi-year bull run
> - The excessive leverage we saw at the top of the bullmarket is now drastically reduced
> 
> ...




Both points are true but there are plenty of other factors to counter those. e.g. the lack of bail out ammunition and a much poorer starting point for the economy. As to black swan risk - it's always what you can't see that hits you, isn't it? France wasn't even talked about 2 weeks ago. And so far no one has mentioned UK either...

Fundamental analysis of the current situation is difficult as there are so many variables, and translating those unknowable / undetermined fundamental developments into potential price actions or levels will be nothing more than pure guess work. Trade the chart is definitely the most simple and practical thing to do.

Talking about how stuffed the world may become, however, is much more engaging.


----------



## WhoToTrust (16 August 2011)

Could it be? (doom and gloom scenarios)

1.  World War 3 will be played out in the financial markets.

2.  This is a form of peasant/worker revolution.  Sick of the Government bailing out banks without recourse.

3.  The syndicate pools of the financial world losing control.

4.  A fundamental shift in the human race.  The idea that the capitalisms' infinite growth does not work with a finite closed system(Earth).

5.  A simple correction.

All are possible I suppose.  HINDSIGHT WELL TELL US EVENTUALLY.


----------



## nomore4s (16 August 2011)

skc said:


> Talking about how stuffed the world may become, however, is much more engaging.




Ain't that the truth.


----------



## littleshire (16 August 2011)

skc said:


> Both points are true but there are plenty of other factors to counter those. e.g. the lack of bail out ammunition and a much poorer starting point for the economy. As to black swan risk - it's always what you can't see that hits you, isn't it? France wasn't even talked about 2 weeks ago. And so far no one has mentioned UK either...
> 
> Fundamental analysis of the current situation is difficult as there are so many variables, and translating those unknowable / undetermined fundamental developments into potential price actions or levels will be nothing more than pure guess work. Trade the chart is definitely the most simple and practical thing to do.
> 
> Talking about how stuffed the world may become, however, is much more engaging.




There are many variables but only 1 that matters: *DEBT*



and that was 2009, now is even worse.


----------



## nomore4s (16 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Have a look at the crash of 1929 (and subsequent bear market):
> - in the first leg down the market fell 48%
> - a recovery happened when the market bounced 48%
> - the second drop was 86% and the market was not coming from a multi-year bull run and of course the market had de-leveraged at that point.
> ...




I'm not arguing that it won't or can't happen, I'm just saying the action and strength in those bars indicates some sort of bottom for the moment.


----------



## VSntchr (16 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Could it be? (doom and gloom scenarios)
> 
> 1.  World War 3 will be played out in the financial markets.
> 
> ...




Im getting a sense of 2012 here!


----------



## WhoToTrust (16 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Im getting a sense of 2012 here!




Not at all.  The human race has entered a new 'Age' dubbed the Technological Age.

The last was the Industrial Age.  

The wondrous number cruncher device the computer has changed the way we live.

How long after after entering the Industrial Age did the great depression start?

Just something to ponder and throw in the ring.


----------



## VSntchr (16 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Not at all.  The human race has entered a new 'Age' dubbed the Technological Age.
> 
> The last was the Industrial Age.
> 
> ...




2012 doesn't have to be the end. I was in a sense agreeing with you.
A time for(of) change indeed


----------



## Tysonboss1 (16 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Not at all.  The human race has entered a new 'Age' dubbed the Technological Age.
> 
> The last was the Industrial Age.




I thought we were in the "information Age", It would make more sense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Age


----------



## WhoToTrust (16 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> 2012 doesn't have to be the end. I was in a sense agreeing with you.
> A time for(of) change indeed




Apologies, misinterpreted!

Most people, in my experience most people think that the 2012 prediction means the end of world or the end is nigh sort of stuff.  :bier:


----------



## WhoToTrust (16 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I thought we were in the "information Age", It would make more sense.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Age




Same diff.  I stand corrected on the label.  :thankyou:


----------



## So_Cynical (16 August 2011)

I reckon that one of the main reasons we wont see a 29 style crash/depression is simply because of China...and the fact the the top 500 or so political elite have no where else to go if it fails, their life's literally depend on the world not falling over.

If the world falls...China falls and revolution will almost certainly follow with many a chauchesku ending for the political elite and they simply wont let that happen, simplistic i know but there it is.


----------



## RandR (16 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Have a look at the crash of 1929 (and subsequent bear market):
> - in the first leg down the market fell 48%
> - a recovery happened when the market bounced 48%
> - the second drop was 86% and the market was not coming from a multi-year bull run and of course the market had de-leveraged at that point.
> ...




Purely IMO ... but I think people are crazy to compare crashes now to past events in percentage point terms.

Id be more curious what kind of PE ratios the indexs were trading at pre 1929 crash, and what they were trading at at the bottom of the second drop. Also the GFC 08-09 in comparison to the 2011 correction in terms of PE ratio's at the precipice and the bottom.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (16 August 2011)

Depression .

It's not even the worst recession we have had.


----------



## littleshire (17 August 2011)

RandR said:


> Purely IMO ... but I think people are crazy to compare crashes now to past events in percentage point terms.
> 
> Id be more curious what kind of PE ratios the indexs were trading at pre 1929 crash, and what they were trading at at the bottom of the second drop. Also the GFC 08-09 in comparison to the 2011 correction in terms of PE ratio's at the precipice and the bottom.




what is wrong comparing crashes? people around here seems to think that because something happened 100 years ago it can't happen again... guess what? The market is still the same emotional beast it has always been.

Ratios for the S&P 500 below, this only goes up to 2009, but the PE before the second drop was about 20.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Depression .
> 
> It's not even the worst recession we have had.




Do you mean Australia? I would argue our recession has not even began.


----------



## LifeChoices (18 August 2011)

Just saw the figures coming out of Europe, it's not looking pretty. Seems like it's just been edging down there for weeks.

Fasten your seat belts looks like plenty more turbulence is on it's way with some more of those big drops.


----------



## tech/a (18 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Just saw the figures coming out of Europe, it's not looking pretty. Seems like it's just been edging down there for weeks.
> 
> Fasten your seat belts looks like plenty more turbulence is on it's way with some more of those big drops.




Yes FTSE short was very nice for a couple of hrs.
quick 500 £

Time for tea life and its turning.




Should be taking advantage of this.PPLs


----------



## LifeChoices (19 August 2011)

Just looked at the US market.

This thread has got another 10 pages left in it, at least.


----------



## vkdirector (19 August 2011)

Yup I would say this thread will be getting plenty of action in the morning I would assume


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)




----------



## Aussiejeff (19 August 2011)

Oh dear. Time to drag out those Split Enz lyrics - again...

_"I see red, I see red, I see red
 How can someone wicked walk around free
 I see red, I see red, I see red
 I see red, Ooh I see red"_

Shocking US data last night. Home sales tanking. CPI zooming. Philly Fed economic activity index sunk without a trace. Man the lifeboats!!!


----------



## explod (19 August 2011)

You live a bit further north than I Aussiejeff, can you see if the sun is coming up yet.


----------



## Aussiejeff (19 August 2011)

explod said:


> You live a bit further north than I Aussiejeff, can you see if the sun is coming up yet.




Dow currently at *-507*

No sunshine today....

Unless you are a bi-polar bear.


----------



## Bigukraine (19 August 2011)

into the 3000's for us today i fear, people won't want to leave their money in over the weekend.......:horse:


----------



## ferretbiter (19 August 2011)

"should I stay or should I go now? Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble. If I stay there will be double. So you gotta let me know. Should I stay or should I go?".

There's trouble a brewin not sure,  If I wanna be a part of the market.Might be pullin out.The cat looks like its about to plummet.


----------



## alexc2005 (19 August 2011)

Ah, today will be interesting.

Futures down 100 points, dow down 420 points.

Dead cat bounce?

Either way it seems i didn't learn my lesson.

It's all interesting to watch though . 

Good luck today peoples.


----------



## notting (19 August 2011)

Still, doesn't make *sensible* sense why gold would rise and all other commodities fall.  Gold's less precious in *real* terms.(Hmmm what to buy?)

Obviously that spells panic/opportunity.

*As usual* it will take longer than is first expected to calm.
Then longer again!

Elliot seemed to have abandoned the 5th wave and was looking at the alternate play yesterday.  Might have changed his mind overnight.  Seen that a bit.

*Tech's call was spot on!!* the "Wise would have been selling to the wise buying bargains," whilst Tiddles was chasing bears!

It will be interesting to see how the machines operate with the weakness of the Ausi dollar making our market more valuable relatively.

A little shopping today if it gets really exiting!


----------



## nulla nulla (19 August 2011)

ferretbiter said:


> "should I stay or should I go now? Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble. If I stay there will be double. So you gotta let me know. Should I stay or should I go?".
> 
> There's trouble a brewin not sure,  If I wanna be a part of the market.Might be pullin out.The cat looks like its about to plummet.




I prefer "Riders of the Storm".


----------



## ferretbiter (19 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I prefer "Riders of the Storm".




I am saddened by the fact that the first time I heard riders on the storm was snoop doggs cover on Need for speed underground 2.Oh what could have been.

Hmmm currently holding RED (gold price increasing hells yeah keep this crash a'commin!) and BHP (oh dear ood oil price where are you going?!Come back to daddy!).Am currently confused and scared...good fun.


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Shocking US data last night. Home sales tanking. CPI zooming. Philly Fed economic activity index sunk without a trace. Man the lifeboats!!!




The Philly FEd -30 number was a 8-sigma event based on the consensus and std dev of Bloomberg's panel of economists. Just shows you what a bunch of group think economists they are.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/scariest-chart-ever-philly-fed-versus-non-farm-payrolls



notting said:


> Still, doesn't make *sensible* sense why gold would rise and all other commodities fall.  Gold's less precious in *real* terms.(Hmmm what to buy?)




All other commodities rise and fall because of underlying economic activities. Gold on the other hand isn't something you can price "fundamentally" imo. 

But how long has gold been considered valuable to the human race? 2500 years? There is no reason for that to change now and certainly the chance of that changing at this time (as opposed to any other time of crisis over the last 2500 years) seems remote.


----------



## ChrisJH (19 August 2011)

Should have known that now wasn't a good time to try and hop in and out quickly fora few dividends...


----------



## littleshire (19 August 2011)

Fasten your seatbelts everyone...


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

littleshire said:


> Fasten your seatbelts everyone...




And there you have it - XAO down 114.9 points ten minutes after open.

I am an intermediate trader, so these shorts arn't bothering me that much - still, seeing red isn't pleasurable... I'm just going to take the oppertunity to top up and decrease my entry point price.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> And there you have it - XAO down 114.9 points ten minutes after open.
> 
> I am an intermediate trader, so these shorts arn't bothering me that much - still, seeing red isn't pleasurable... I'm just going to take the oppertunity to top up and decrease my entry point price.




Due to shorts eh!!



> I'm just going to take the oppertunity to top up and decrease my entry point price




Great idea the only down side is increasing your losses.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Due to shorts eh!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




That is providing the market doesn't severely crash over the next few trading days.

My current holdings sway with the XAO, and are influenced by foreign markets. I am still confident on my target price though - I picked up MQG and though am down today I feel as if I will hit my $29 within 30 days.

Since you posted a Learners Plate I am going to assume you are implying that I am either a Loser or a Learner. So tell me, what would _you_ be doing at this time? Holding, buying or selling short? In these kinds of market moves there isn't too much one can do...


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Of course! It makes perfect sense to keep compounding an incorrect entry by buying more. While we're at it, we should be cutting our profits short to help cover our 'averaging down'!
> 
> /endsarcasm




And again, what would _your_ move be - I haven't hit my stop/loss yet and since I'm in for the intermediate term, this slight decrease is miniscule.


----------



## Family_Guy (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Since you posted a Learners Plate I am going to assume you are implying that I am either a Loser or a Learner. So tell me, what would _you_ be doing at this time? Holding, buying or selling short? In these kinds of market moves there isn't too much one can do...



Nice day for golf dude. I been cash for a long time, dabble a bit but mate, grab the bags and go for a swing.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

Family_Guy said:


> Nice day for golf dude. I been cash for a long time, dabble a bit but mate, grab the bags and go for a swing.




Sorry - much too busy. Maybe next time.


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> That is providing the market doesn't severely crash over the next few trading days.
> 
> My current holdings sway with the XAO, and are influenced by foreign markets. I am still confident on my target price though - I picked up MQG and though am down today I feel as if I will hit my $29 within 30 days.
> 
> Since you posted a Learners Plate I am going to assume you are implying that I am either a Loser or a Learner. So tell me, what would _you_ be doing at this time? Holding, buying or selling short? In these kinds of market moves there isn't too much one can do...




Do nothing is a move. You don't have to buy or sell.

There are great underlying forces shifting the markets at the moment. The waves are going to be huge. If you are not a big wave surfer the least you could do is not go into the waves...


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

skc said:


> Do nothing is a move. You don't have to buy or sell.
> 
> There are great underlying forces shifting the markets at the moment. The waves are going to be huge. If you are not a big wave surfer the least you could do is not go into the waves...




Time for a meat pie and a tan - perhaps watching surfers trip off their boards will be entertainment enough.


----------



## Boggo (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> And again, what would _your_ move be - I haven't hit my stop/loss yet and since I'm in for the intermediate term, this slight decrease is miniscule.




Your comments add support to the "L" meaning learner I suspect.

Waiting for your justification of why MQG will hit $29 in 30 days or is that just learners wishful thinking, either way I think you need to support statements such as that.

I am looking at sub $20 over a shorter time period based on a technical analysis projection of wave 5.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2011)

In cash and trading Indexes FTSE SPI DAX.
No Equities.


----------



## notting (19 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In cash and trading Indexes FTSE SPI DAX.
> No Equities.




Astute's the word.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Your comments add support to the "L" meaning learner I suspect.
> 
> Waiting for your justification of why MQG will hit $29 in 30 days or is that just learners wishful thinking, either way I think you need to support statements such as that.
> 
> I am looking at sub $20 over a shorter time period based on a technical analysis projection of wave 5.




30 days is very well an under-estimate - however yesterdays charts did make me feel confident about the target price. I am ameture in TA and yesterdyas charts made me feel as if the up-trend would continue, however todays charts are saying otherwise with the obvious down-trend. My justification is merely the charts - there is no concrete reason why I should recieve $29, and any reason I give is going to be non-concrete.

I will be holding these shares for the intermediate term or until my stop/loss has been hit of $23. If my theory fails me, well I guess that is just more education for me to recieve.

I saw this pattern last time with MQG, around the 8th - 9th of August, and I, in a panic, sold. So rather than panic and sell short of my entry, I'd rther wait, read the charts, take advantage of the stop/loss set and see where they head.

Again, I am going off patterns and nothing concrete. Hey, there could be a huge world wide Earthquake tomorrow - any theory would be shot in that instance. So again, nothing concrete.


----------



## skyQuake (19 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In cash and trading Indexes FTSE SPI DAX.
> No Equities.




Too many gaps all over the place for this old duck? :

Any prefs between DAX and FTSE? Never properly looked at the DAX before, just ES and FTSE


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I saw this pattern last time with MQG, around the 8th - 9th of August, and I, in a panic, sold. So rather than panic and sell short of my entry, I'd rther wait, read the charts, take advantage of the stop/loss set and see where they head.
> 
> Again, I am going off patterns and nothing concrete. Hey, there could be a huge world wide Earthquake tomorrow - any theory would be shot in that instance. So again, nothing concrete.




Is something that happened once really a pattern?


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

skc said:


> Is something that happened once really a pattern?




You make a solid point there.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Too many gaps all over the place for this old duck? :
> 
> Any prefs between DAX and FTSE? Never properly looked at the DAX before, just ES and FTSE




FTSE a lot easier and more conforming to VSA.
Mind you both DAX and FTSE leave the SPI (God knows why I trade 10 pt ranges) for dead.
At least you get great trends in a session and terrific volume which reads like a book
which you can pre empt the ending---pretty accurately!.

I prefer 1 min charts and for longer holds 5 min.


----------



## skyQuake (19 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> FTSE a lot easier and more conforming to VSA.
> Mind you both DAX and FTSE leave the SPI (God knows why I trade 10 pt ranges) for dead.
> At least you get great trends in a session and terrific volume which reads like a book
> which you can pre empt the ending---pretty accurately!.
> ...




Cheers. I suppose we trade the SPI because its convenient... either that or gluttons for punishment


----------



## Aussiejeff (19 August 2011)

All Ords would need to fall another 100pts or so to be in lock-step with Euro, US market moves. We laugh in their general direction...

No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> All Ords would need to fall another 100pts or so to be in lock-step with Euro, US market moves. We laugh in their general direction...
> 
> No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...




For some reason I don't feel the panic. It feels like an orderly sell off. Everything takes a similar cut... not too many massive holes like 2 weeks ago except for the few companies (BBG, GFF, QBE) that reported today.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

skc said:


> For some reason I don't feel the panic. It feels like an orderly sell off. Everything takes a similar cut... not too many massive holes like 2 weeks ago except for the few companies (BBG, GFF, QBE) that reported today.




That is my sentiment exactly. No matter how you read a company charts or trend I find that unexpected influences can throw theories way off - so I stick to my original plan without emotion. Today I am down 5%, and it isn't phasing me one bit. I have no concerns that my price entry point was wrong, as todays losses are insignificant to the intermediate term. I respect the opinions posted in regards to the charts - however my sentiment remains the same. I have these forums to thank as they have educated me a great deal.

However, on the 5th, I felt like the sky was falling. It was my first crash - and in turn I lost a lot of funds.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2011)

skc said:


> For some reason I don't feel the panic. It feels like an orderly sell off. Everything takes a similar cut... not too many massive holes like 2 weeks ago except for the few companies (BBG, GFF, QBE) that reported today.




I think what SKC means is this seems more sustained.
Not a good sign!


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I think what SKC means is this seems more sustained.
> Not a good sign!




Sometimes it pays off to be patient and optimistic - however optimism can quickly turn into wishful thinking. Thank goodness for stop/loss 

I don't understand why it being more sustained is a bad sign - would you explain it to me, Tech/a-senpai?


----------



## whitefang (19 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> All Ords would need to fall another 100pts or so to be in lock-step with Euro, US market moves. We laugh in their general direction...
> 
> No wuckers, dudes! Pass the beer & skittles...




My expectation was that after the post-open bounce, XJO would touch or cross the 4100 level later. It has been holding up quite well. Having said that, there is still enough time for a readjustment with the SP500 futures in mind...so...some sell-off late in the afternoon still on the cards.

cheers,


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> That is my sentiment exactly. No matter how you read a company charts or trend I find that unexpected influences can throw theories way off - so I stick to my original plan without emotion. Today I am down 5%, and it isn't phasing me one bit. I have no concerns that my price entry point was wrong, as todays losses are insignificant to the intermediate term. I respect the opinions posted in regards to the charts - however my sentiment remains the same. I have these forums to thank as they have educated me a great deal.
> 
> However, on the 5th, I felt like the sky was falling. It was my first crash - and in turn I lost a lot of funds.




Keeping emotions out, sticking to your plan etc are important elements of successful investing / trading. Then there is the slightly more important part called a profitable plan. 

You will need both, and if anything, work on the profitable plan first. It's easy to be non-emotional and disciplined when you know something will work over time.



tech/a said:


> I think what SKC means is this seems more sustained.
> Not a good sign!




Not 100% sure what I meant. But the market doesn't feel as "broken" as it was on 5th Aug. Yes there are large falls among large stocks, but there wasn't too much -10% on the open with 3% spread and 0 buyer for 30 minutes type situations.

Not sure whether that's a good or bad sign either...


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

skc said:


> Keeping emotions out, sticking to your plan etc are important elements of successful investing / trading. Then there is the slightly more important part called a profitable plan.
> 
> You will need both, and if anything, work on the profitable plan first. It's easy to be non-emotional and disciplined when you know something will work over time.




I'll work on a plan this weekend and read some information on building a solid one. Thanks for the advice.


----------



## Struzball (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Sometimes it pays off to be patient and optimistic - however optimism can quickly turn into wishful thinking. Thank goodness for stop/loss
> 
> I don't understand why it being more sustained is a bad sign - would you explain it to me, Tech/a-senpai?




NewTrade, you barely need to be an expert on stock markets/trading/elliot wave etc to explain why too much optimism and a sustained downturn is a bad thing.

I wonder what all those optimists from May 2007 are doing today (When MQG was _almost_ worth $100/share)


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

Struzball said:


> NewTrade, you barely need to be an expert on stock markets/trading/elliot wave etc to explain why too much optimism and a sustained downturn is a bad thing.
> 
> I wonder what all those optimists from May 2007 are doing today (When MQG was _almost_ worth $100/share)




I completely understand. Too much optimism would be wishful - but I also am against heavy pesimism. MQG is not $100, its $24 respectively at the moment. And in regards to the crash of the 5th, and todays huge downturn, the price entered may be viable after all.

I will be holding this for a couple of months or more, or until the stop/loss triggers. I am confident in a slight uptrend to come, depending on the foreign markets.

My optimism in 2007 would have quickly ended during the pre/post GFC. Optimism is one thing but blind wishes are another.

Well the day has ended, I hope the bargain hunting was optimal for all - shall see you on the next session.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I completely understand. Too much optimism would be wishful - but I also am against heavy pesimism. MQG is not $100, its $24 respectively at the moment. And in regards to the crash of the 5th, and todays huge downturn, the price entered may be viable after all.
> 
> I will be holding this for a couple of months or more, or until the stop/loss triggers. I am confident in a slight uptrend to come, depending on the foreign markets.
> 
> My optimism in 2007 would have quickly ended during the pre/post GFC. Optimism is one thing but blind wishes are another.




Hi NewTrade..welcome to the boards 

As with a lot of my posts, I'm not asking because I want to know, I'm asking to see if you know and have thought about such things...

Why is MQG $24 instead of nearly $100?
What makes $24 an attractive purchase price?
What is your target price determined by your analysis?

With *any* company, regardless of what sector, what prospects, what cash on hand, what-ever...they never stand still...what represents "value" is always moving in accordance with what is happening that is *outside of their control*. Hence your statement above...depending upon foreign markets... therefore your decision becomes very binary. 

The only variables *you* can control is what you are prepared to lose, for a *potential* gain.

Good luck with the trading plan.

P.S.  Just popped in to say aside from the open and last ten minutes of the close that market was boring as hell.

Cheers

Sir Osisofliver


----------



## skc (19 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> P.S.  Just popped in to say aside from the open and last ten minutes of the close that market was boring as hell.




+1.

May be that's what I meant by an orderly sell off. Unlike the 4th and 5th Aug it was a thrill a minute.

Finishing on the low for the day, Europe futures already rolling over, gold up 30. 

Shaping up to be a black Friday over night.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> Hi NewTrade..welcome to the boards
> 
> As with a lot of my posts, I'm not asking because I want to know, I'm asking to see if you know and have thought about such things...
> 
> ...




Sir Osis,

Thank you for the post, it was rather enlightening.

I do have answers to those questions and have pumped them through my mind quite a number of times. Although I may be a little off about their drop, I am sure I know the main contributors to their demise.

Again, I am optimistic for my target, not back to its trading peak 4 years ago - and my target is reasonable in my view. I trade intermediate terms and I don't think the XAO is on an infinite regress, nor will I ever consider it in infinite progress.

Next week will be a better week


----------



## Struzball (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> My optimism in 2007 would have quickly ended during the pre/post GFC. Optimism is one thing but blind wishes are another.




I'm curious, at which point would your optimism have ended during the GFC?  10% from the peak? 20% from the peak? 50% from the peak? Hindsight is 20/20.

For me it was March '08, at a significant loss.  I assume your optimism will end once your stop loss is reached?

This time my "optimism" ended August 8 2011.  Not that I've been overly optimistic about anything for the last two years, but that's when I went to 100% cash.


----------



## LifeChoices (19 August 2011)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> P.S.  Just popped in to say aside from the open and last ten minutes of the close that market was boring as hell.




Making some money on a down day isn't that boring. My free NAV options came in today and I got some TVN at 0.045, which I think was a good thing. 

Still have a fair bit stashed away for Monday and Tuesday, where I'm expecting another hit - let's wait and see.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Making some money on a down day isn't that boring. My free NAV options came in today and I got some TVN at 0.045, which I think was a good thing.
> 
> Still have a fair bit stashed away for Monday and Tuesday, where I'm expecting another hit - let's wait and see.




I hope you are wrong, but my gut believes you are right.


----------



## Struzball (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I hope you are wrong, but my gut believes you are right.




Sleep well NewTrade  Have a good weekend.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

Struzball said:


> Sleep well NewTrade  Have a good weekend.




...Thanks


----------



## WhoToTrust (19 August 2011)

Well all I see is more glug glug glug.  And the Bell Direct chickens are screaming the sky is falling as well, apparently.

The US has a lot more to fall as well imo.

Might have a few drinks and watch the opening later, to make a night of it. :horse:


----------



## WhoToTrust (19 August 2011)

Is Europe really already down 5%?


----------



## wayneL (19 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Is Europe really already down 5%?




You must be looking at delayed data, I see it down 12% on my screen. 


















j/k :


----------



## skyQuake (19 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Is Europe really already down 5%?




SPI is down 0.2% from cash close.

Bit of craziness around the open.


----------



## Julia (19 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> MQG is not $100, its $24 respectively at the moment.



"It's $24 respectively".  What does 'respectively' mean here?  How did you come to the price of $24?



> I will be holding this for a couple of months or more, or until the stop/loss triggers. I am confident in a slight uptrend to come, depending on the foreign markets.



 Could you perhaps outline the basis for your confidence and how this relates to foreign markets?



> My optimism in 2007 would have quickly ended during the pre/post GFC.



If your optimism would have ended pre-GFC, can you say at what point and why?





NewTrade said:


> Next week will be a better week



That sounds promising.  What's the basis for this confidence?



Struzball said:


> I'm curious, at which point would your optimism have ended during the GFC?  10% from the peak? 20% from the peak? 50% from the peak? Hindsight is 20/20.
> 
> For me it was March '08, at a significant loss.  I assume your optimism will end once your stop loss is reached?
> 
> This time my "optimism" ended August 8 2011.  Not that I've been overly optimistic about anything for the last two years, but that's when I went to 100% cash.



 +1.


----------



## Ves (19 August 2011)

Julia said:


> "It's $24 respectively".  What does 'respectively' mean here?  How did you come to the price of $24?



Market price when he posted it.


----------



## NewTrade (19 August 2011)

$24 was the market price at the time; it is just rather volatile. I only read charts as best I can and take the time to read broker research and fundamentals as well as announcements - nothing fancy.

"Next week will be a better week" - was like saying Tomorrow will be a better day.


----------



## So_Cynical (19 August 2011)

Mmm 53 posts in this thread today, 2 posts yesterday and 2 posts the day before yesterday...and all that because we failed by what...110 odd points to get level with where we were last week when the ASX actually did have a bit of a tank.   

Is the fact that we didn't actually tank the badly today an indication of anything? some market resilience perhaps....i think market bashing threads have something very much in common with Labor bashing threads.

Popularity.


----------



## Ves (20 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Mmm 53 posts in this thread today, 2 posts yesterday and 2 posts the day before yesterday...and all that because we failed by what...110 odd points to get level with where we were last week when the ASX actually did have a bit of a tank.
> 
> Is the fact that we didn't actually tank the badly today an indication of anything? some market resilience perhaps....i think market bashing threads have something very much in common with Labor bashing threads.
> 
> Popularity.



The market dropped like a sack of **** from 4700 to 3800, and crawled back from the grave and hit a wall at 4300, yet you are calling this a "bashing" thread - why?


----------



## trading_rookie (20 August 2011)

Japan on edge after strong quake prompts tsunami alert..faaaarrrk! that's all we need to add to the mix, more natural disasters in the land of the rising sun...our biggest trade partner...if it happens (fingers crossed it doesn't!) that should for all intense purposes put them in a recession...and no doubt further 'sentiment' and 'influence' will push the asx/all ords lower...

TAH down 34c after posting $500mil profit only a few days ago...gonna have to top up sooner or later...it's like the gfc all over again for bargains


----------



## skyQuake (20 August 2011)

trading_rookie said:


> Japan on edge after strong quake prompts tsunami alert..faaaarrrk! that's all we need to add to the mix, more natural disasters in the land of the rising sun...our biggest trade partner...if it happens (fingers crossed it doesn't!) that should for all intense purposes put them in a recession...and no doubt further 'sentiment' and 'influence' will push the asx/all ords lower...
> 
> TAH down 34c after posting $500mil profit only a few days ago...gonna have to top up sooner or later...it's like the gfc all over again for bargains




6.5 quake was yesterday, and futs grinding higher


----------



## trading_rookie (20 August 2011)

true...technically it's now Sat morning, ... I just logged into my yahoo mail account (still at work), and saw the headline. 

Futures up...that's good  no it's not...gonna have impact on my aussie bonds surging higher  ;-)


----------



## So_Cynical (20 August 2011)

Ves said:


> The market dropped like a sack of **** from 4700 to 3800, and crawled back from the grave and hit a wall at 4300, yet you are calling this a "bashing" thread - why?




Why?  Perhaps you some how missed the bit about 53 posts today vs 4 posts on the 2 last up days.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Why?  Perhaps you some how missed the bit about 53 posts today vs 4 posts on the 2 last up days.




It wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that it is "The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread" now would it? 

It is the topic at hand isn't it.


----------



## nulla nulla (20 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Mmm 53 posts in this thread today, 2 posts yesterday and 2 posts the day before yesterday...and all that because we failed by what...110 odd points to get level with where we were last week when the ASX actually did have a bit of a tank.
> 
> Is the fact that we didn't actually tank the badly today an indication of anything? some market resilience perhaps....i think market bashing threads have something very much in common with Labor bashing threads.
> 
> Popularity.






Ves said:


> The market dropped like a sack of **** from 4700 to 3800, and crawled back from the grave and hit a wall at 4300, yet you are calling this a "bashing" thread - why?






So_Cynical said:


> Why?  Perhaps you some how missed the bit about 53 posts today vs 4 posts on the 2 last up days.






wayneL said:


> It wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that it is "The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread" now would it?
> 
> It is the topic at hand isn't it.




So by definition this thread is restricted to those among us in "panic" mode and other posters wanting to challenge the irrational comments with structured response should find somewhere else to post?


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> So by definition this thread is restricted to those among us in "panic" mode and other posters wanting to challenge the irrational comments with structured response should find somewhere else to post?




Did I say that? Please don't assign to me something I did not say. 

I just pointed out that the actual topic of discuusion is likely to dominate the post count. One should not be surprsised by this.


----------



## tech/a (20 August 2011)

Why is Selling seen as panic?


----------



## explod (20 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why is Selling seen as panic?




Good point, 

just that some set stops, some adhere to stops, some stop and others panic and are stopped.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why is Selling seen as panic?




Not all selling is panic. But people do panic, it's human nature. 

If people didn't panic or become consumed by over the top euforia we wouldn't have the big boom and busts in the markets.


----------



## redFinite (20 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why is Selling seen as panic?




This is actually a great point.

Two of the worlds largest economies arent in a great way at the moment. Both seem hell bent on using band aids when we really need some amputation.

I think investors are wary, and rightly so. Especially after the GFC.

We had a big drop, tried to rally but the market is speaking. Today I halved stakes in a few of my holdings to raise 30% cash while I could still break even. I wasnt panicing at all, i gave the rally a chance, it didnt eventuate. It was a purely strategic move to reduce potential losses if we fall further (which i think we will) and to free up some cash for potential bargins in who knows... 6, 8 or 12 months time if or when things settle. If we go up... great, I still own great companies in great financial shape which will recover fast.

Its funny, If you hold you are not proactive, if you sell you are panicing. Sometimes you cant win. All I can do is make a sensible and educated call and back myself if Im wrong well im wrong but thats part of the fun. Very exciting times, this is living, taking risks, backing yourself, loosing, winning, I enjoy it all.

Good luck to all investors


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 August 2011)

redFinite said:


> Its funny, If you hold you are not proactive, if you sell you are panicing.




To me being "proactive" means putting together an investment operation that will perform well over time through all market ups and downs, and never have any permanent loss of capital.

to me, where you have used the word "proactive" The word "reactive" would be a better fit, a few people are very good at reacting to markets, but mathamatically the majority will fail.

Reactive investing or trading requires the ability for A to accurately guess what B and C are doing, while B and C are trying to guess what A is doing, Thats not a game I am good at, as I said some are very good at it, some do it by accident, but the majority fail.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 August 2011)

In a recession if their is say 1% decline in gdp, It does not mean that everyone and every business becomes 1% poorer.

It probably means that 2% of people will become 50% poorer and the rest will potter along doing ok.

So, Ideally (in my veiw) you want to find those companies that will suffer minimal effects and buy them when the market is offering them at unrealistic discounts, and in the same breath you should want to sell them during a boom when the market is offering unrealistic premiums.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> In a recession if their is say 1% decline in gdp, It does not mean that everyone and every business becomes 1% poorer.
> 
> It probably means that 2% of people will become 50% poorer and the rest will potter along doing ok.
> 
> So, Ideally (in my veiw) you want to find those companies that will suffer minimal effects and buy them when the market is offering them at unrealistic discounts, and in the same breath you should want to sell them during a boom when the market is offering unrealistic premiums.




I'd argue with the numbers i.e I think it would be substantial more than 2% with some some of that number being subtantial less poorer than 50%, but agree with your premise... on the face of it at least.

There may be some non-transparent figures that make the number even larger still, but these will go unreported.

In any case I agree with the premise with a caveat. Confidence is paramount, so even those unaffected may rein in their spending anyway.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Confidence is paramount, so even those unaffected may rein in their spending anyway.




Yes, we saw this during and following the GFC.

Less people would go out to expense restruants, But substituted to things like Dinner and a movie, or entertaining at home.

Mcdonalds actually produced a record profit in the gfc.


----------



## WhoToTrust (20 August 2011)

Could not one argue that proactive and reactive in terms of trading/investing are the same as both require change?


----------



## So_Cynical (20 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why is Selling seen as panic?




Because its the panicked that are uncomfortable...excluding system and high discipline traders, pretty much all the sellers have to be uncomfortable with current market conditions/direction to sell.

I would think.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Could not one argue that proactive and reactive in terms of trading/investing are the same as both require change?




Proactive -  Acting in advance to deal with an expected difficulty.This behavior is the opposite of taking action only as a reaction to matters as they arise.

Reactive - Behavior that is not internally motivated but manifests in response to a situation or the actions of others.


You can look at it like this,

A person can keep their house orderly and tidy and feel comfortable whenever a visitor drops by on short notice this is a proactive approach.

or,

You can can live like a slob and panic and start running round the house hiding dirt laundry and dishes when you see a car pull up and your mother inlaw step out, this is reactive.


----------



## WhoToTrust (20 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Proactive -  Acting in advance to deal with an expected difficulty.
> 
> Reactive - Behavior that is not internally motivated but manifests in response to a situation or the actions of others.
> 
> ...




So person 1 has some stock, they notice that over the last few weeks the stock has fallen, they pro-actively (anticipating the future, in this case they anticipate that the stock will continue to fall ) make a choice to sell the stock.

Person 2 is in the same situation, they anticipate that the stock will also continue to fall, however they anticipate that while they stock will continue to fall, that at some time the stock will rise again.  [EDIT] They make a choice not to sell the stock. [EDIT]

So are not both being proactive here?


----------



## Struzball (20 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Person 2 is in the same situation, they anticipate that the stock will also continue to fall, however they anticipate that while they stock will continue to fall, that at some time the stock will rise again.
> 
> So are not both being proactive here?




Depends what their goals are.  

If person 2's goal is to lose money he is proactively ensuring that will happen 

But seriously, I believe Person 2 actually is moreso anticipating the future rise, while disregarding the current fall.  Not what I would call a proactive investor.  Also this has absolutely nothing to do with anything.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> So person 1 has some stock, they notice that over the last few weeks the stock has fallen, they pro-actively (anticipating the future, in this case they anticipate that the stock will continue to fall ) make a choice to sell the stock.
> 
> Person 2 is in the same situation, they anticipate that the stock will also continue to fall, however they anticipate that while they stock will continue to fall, that at some time the stock will rise again.  [EDIT] They make a choice not to sell the stock. [EDIT]
> 
> So are not both being proactive here?




What about person 3?

There are other proactive possibilities


----------



## WhoToTrust (20 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> What about person 3?
> 
> There are other proactive possibilities




I Never said there wasn't.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> I Never said there wasn't.




Oh OK! I was just feeling left out there. :


----------



## Julia (20 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> To me being "proactive" means putting together an investment operation that will perform well over time through all market ups and downs, and never have any permanent loss of capital.



That's imo a pretty narrow definition of 'proactive'.



> to me, where you have used the word "proactive" The word "reactive" would be a better fit,



Nothing wrong with reacting to altered situations.




> Reactive investing or trading requires the ability for A to accurately guess what B and C are doing, while B and C are trying to guess what A is doing,



Aren't you over-complicating it?  Why does it have to be more complex than adhering to a strategy of letting profits run, then *appropriately reacting* to avoid losses when the trend reverses?



Tysonboss1 said:


> Proactive -  Acting in advance to deal with an expected difficulty.This behavior is the opposite of taking action only as a reaction to matters as they arise.
> 
> Reactive - Behavior that is not internally motivated but manifests in response to a situation or the actions of others.



The above reads like a quote from the dictionary.  That's fine, but it's not always a good fit to attempt to attach a broad definition to a specific situation.

You could say - as has already been suggested - that the proactive trader is simply reacting appropriately to a change in the market environment, while the investor who does nothing is being passively inactive.

Honestly, it seems a bit of a silly discussion to me, but perhaps I'm missing something vital.


----------



## Boggo (20 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Mmm 53 posts in this thread today, 2 posts yesterday and 2 posts the day before yesterday...and all that because we failed by what...110 odd points to get level with where we were last week when the ASX actually did have a bit of a tank.
> 
> Is the fact that we didn't actually tank the badly today an indication of anything? some market resilience perhaps....i think market bashing threads have something very much in common with Labor bashing threads.






wayneL said:


> It wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that it is "The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread" now would it?
> 
> It is the topic at hand isn't it.




I was thinking the same thing when I saw the first comment above last night !




tech/a said:


> Why is Selling seen as panic?




Sounds like having and sticking to a business plan, agree, why panic ?




So_Cynical said:


> Because its the panicked that are uncomfortable...excluding system and high discipline traders, pretty much all the sellers have to be uncomfortable with current market conditions/direction to sell.
> 
> I would think.




Or they believe in retaining profit and have overcome some of that nonsense that learners call emotion.



WhoToTrust said:


> So person 1 has some stock, they notice that over the last few weeks the stock has fallen, they pro-actively (anticipating the future, in this case they anticipate that the stock will continue to fall ) make a choice to sell the stock.




Sounds like commonsense to me as opposed to getting emotionally involved and hanging on to stocks because the management are telling them that it is fundamentally sound, ie, it is ok to give back all your profit and go into the red because we said so.

If you are really dependant on others and believe that the tooth fairy exists then you buy some more, this keeps the gap between the falling price and your average buy to the same distance so that makes it all better 

This is an alcoholic "just one more drink and then I will give up" mentality, ie, commonsense overruled by emotion.


----------



## WhoToTrust (20 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Oh OK! I was just feeling left out there. :




If you are bored you could always have a look here for a giggle.


----------



## tech/a (20 August 2011)

Wow such in depth reasoning.

I'd have thought the Europes coming off because of debt concerns so you can't blame investors for selling out ---- let's face it it's not a bullish situation.
THe US is insolvent so investors there are the same --- hardly a panic.
It's not going to turn bullish on a dime.
Investors here realize that both of these economies will effect our own.
Interest rates will soon be cut as will the AUD not long after that so our market will decline--- unfortunately further and longer than many want particularly as many want to see thier retirement fund increase not decrease.

With the fundamentals in place I don't blame any sellers and don't see their actions as reactive panic.
More logical risk management.--- capital protection--- if you have serios funds in the market I don't think now is the time to be a hero.


----------



## notting (20 August 2011)

The US's solution to its insolvency is that it just writes a little 0 on the end of each number on those little pieces of paper people carry around.  It's kind of a way of paying what it owes to the outsiders who are unfairly pegged to it.

Unfortunately, the US may have to combine this by unfunding it's pension funds etc., using it's sitting president to veto the Bush tax cut extension which will be the next *'big deal.'*

The recent market panic first set in with DAX and CACS, especially DAX pre-empting it's latest growth-less figure. It wasn't with Uncle Sam and his texta. 

The panic continued from there because Euroland has no decent Texta nor much pegged to effect, if it did have one.  Yet it tends to remain in lock step with the US as it is, so Sams Texta seems somewhat broad.
Praise the machines for they are programmed to respond to value.

I'm watching for the sign of Euro solvency not US solvency that's my cue.

Limb slicing may cause uncontrollable haemorrhaging, yet current increase in the debt squeeziness is almost as bad.

Oil is coming down nicely to help growth all over the place which is most helpful.

People have probably recognised that, if you were an american fund, 
Euroland fund or Pegged fund buying Ausi stocks they are generally *still* twice  the value in US,EU & PEG terms that they were during the height of the GST. Whilst internally they are far cheaper.
Bit of insurance in that interest rate! Cut?
Just hoofing around as it's too cold to be floating in my damn................................ yet.

and I'm on drugs

Monday will be 'interesting times.'


----------



## tech/a (20 August 2011)

What signs do you want
You don't have to look any further than the PIGS


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> What signs do you want
> You don't have to look any further than the* PIGS*




I'm waiting for when *F*rance and the *U*nited *K*ingdom become a problem.


----------



## nulla nulla (20 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> I'm waiting for when *F*rance and the *U*nited *K*ingdom become a problem.




Should through *C*anada in there as well and see what you come up with


----------



## LifeChoices (20 August 2011)

When gold breaks 2K and silver is over $50 that's when I reckon the xao has bottomed.

I haven't got any graphs, fancy arsed triangles or anything else to back this up. I sniff glue, and my wild hallucinations are telling me that I need to buy rural land at that point

I'm looking for land near the beach, 40 - 60km out of Melbourne, hopefully with some sweeping views. Then in 4 or so years when the kids have nicked off,  I'll sell the family home in this drab suburb and build one of those architect designed homes on this beautiful land by the beach.

I'd like to start one of those cottage industries - anyone ever had those dried oranges dipped in dark chocolate?


----------



## notting (20 August 2011)

> What signs do you want




I'm looking for a sign that will make people think it's going to be managed.


----------



## Julia (20 August 2011)

notting said:


> I'm watching for the sign of Euro solvency not US solvency that's my cue.



I hope you're not holding your breath.


----------



## noirua (21 August 2011)

Julia said:


> I hope you're not holding your breath.




SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to announce a deposit tax on foreign held CHF deposits. This should happen before markets open Monday in NZ.


----------



## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

noirua said:


> SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to announce a deposit tax on foreign held CHF deposits. This should happen before markets open Monday in NZ.




How do you think that is going to effect the ASX?


----------



## Dougs Antiques (21 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> How do you think that is going to effect the ASX?




This may be a good buy signal at close 
Im holding very little infact im at 95% cash
Just see what tomorrow holds (im saying not so good for holders)
My


----------



## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> This may be a good buy signal at close
> Im holding very little infact im at 95% cash
> Just see what tomorrow holds (im saying not so good for holders)
> My




Unfortunately I think you're right... I hope the fact that the Hang Seng closed up will influence our market positively...


----------



## skyQuake (21 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Unfortunately I think you're right... I hope the fact that the Hang Seng closed up will influence our market positively...




How does that help? The US closed down after being up for a while. imo hang seng only influences AU from its open (1130am aus)


----------



## NewTrade (21 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> How does that help? The US closed down after being up for a while. imo hang seng only influences AU from its open (1130am aus)




Fair enough.


----------



## Billyb (21 August 2011)

Sometimes the monthly chart looks different to the weekly and daily charts as it eliminates a lot of the noise. Shows the general trend quite well IMO...

Price spreads are supposed to reduce around the rebound area as selling panic reduces  - at the moment not looking that way. To me looks like the trend is likely to continue at least for a while longer.


----------



## notting (22 August 2011)

New talk of euro bond is most encouraging.
They should fund the interest on it with a tax on international speculation - trading. 
International traders won't like it but trading does little to contribute to society and making it a little more expensive will generate more calm, consideration and stability,  especially with the issue of preditory shorting that Euroland seems to have identified as a relevant internatioal security issue.


----------



## NewTrade (22 August 2011)

I hope this week is a profitable one for all  Anyone get hit with that NAB/WPac glitch? My cash transfers to my broker have not hit yet :/


----------



## tech/a (22 August 2011)

Very very weak finish.
80 tick turn around.
The complete opposite to that
seen last weak where support just powered the XJO back
from heavy selling.

Doesnt bode well for those long!
Still a way to go to test support.


----------



## NewTrade (22 August 2011)

I'm just happy that my stock was hit with pebbles instead of bricks. Was actually happy to see the 50 point gain earlier today - my doom and gloom face changed to one of optimistic excitment.


----------



## tech/a (22 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I'm just happy that my stock was hit with pebbles instead of bricks. Was actually happy to see the 50 point gain earlier today - my doom and gloom face changed to one of optimistic excitment.




And back again


----------



## NewTrade (22 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> And back again




More or less...


----------



## skyQuake (22 August 2011)

All S&P lead today. Aus is clueless about whether we go up or down


----------



## NewTrade (22 August 2011)

Duplicate: Connection loss


----------



## RandR (22 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> All S&P lead today. Aus is clueless about whether we go up or down




I think your right, It all seemed a bit headless,  waiting to see what transpires in europe and USofA tonight.


----------



## WhoToTrust (22 August 2011)

RandR said:


> I think your right, It all seemed a bit headless,  waiting to see what transpires in europe and USofA tonight.




Well if you go on the fact that over 1 Trillion has been spent bailing out banks, some people may see this as a good thing tho.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html


----------



## tech/a (22 August 2011)

I dunno

Pretty clear to me.
Buying stopped and selling just kept going.

Not the strength of a week ago.---today


----------



## notting (22 August 2011)

US futures turned negative after being positive till lunch may be due to expectations of oil stock weakness due to Libya.

Unfortunately, however, there may have been a change in culture from buy the dips to sell the humps, this is a tech negative, given no clear resolution to the real issue Euroland.

The pivot low of last Tuesday is holding for the moment. Pray?


----------



## RandR (22 August 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Well if you go on the fact that over 1 Trillion has been spent bailing out banks, some people may see this as a good thing tho.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html




Really good read, thanks for posting that.

My highlight was this -  "Citigroup was tapping six Fed programs at once. Its total borrowings amounted to more than twice the federal Department of Education’s 2011 budget"  ... ahhh ... capitalism, tis beautiful.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Pretty clear to me.
> Buying stopped and selling just kept going.
> 
> Not the strength of a week ago.---today




Nobody willing to buy in until they see direction from europe.

hey tech, do you think the buying in the market that drove the rally was mostly down to the institutional market buying power ? I get the sense that alot of retail investors are not keen on buying just atm. Giving me the thought that any real drive upward in the market needs to start squarely at the big end of town.

I think this could be a really interesting week for our market, BHP results are due this week I think ? do you think positive or negative results for BHP could influence the market given their weight ?


----------



## whitefang (22 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Very very weak finish.
> 80 tick turn around.
> The complete opposite to that
> seen last weak where support just powered the XJO back
> ...




Tech/a

Agree that price action has been very negative this afternoon.
You referring to 3765 support I suspect (because I do not see any other support between here and there...). It will probably take a bit of time, and many steps, we won't see too soon a 5% drop as on the 9th. Unless the Fed does NOT come up with something very "constructive" on Friday...

cheers,


----------



## skc (22 August 2011)

Two huge events coming out of US on Friday - GDP and Bernanke's speech. Hard to see us rally hard ahead of those numbers, although you never know about news leaks etc.

Meanwhile Gold just cracked $1895...


----------



## whitefang (23 August 2011)

Price action very bearish again overnight, but there is something which surprises me...SPI started converging with XJO, yesterday the gap narrowed to around 20 points and today almost same level as XJO, as indicating a short term reversal. Any thoughts ?

cheers,


----------



## VSntchr (23 August 2011)

Groundhog day anyone?

Gold is going through the roof..somethings not quite right...


----------



## whitefang (23 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Groundhog day anyone?
> 
> Gold is going through the roof..somethings not quite right...




Was noticing same thing...and wonder...markets just about to tank ?


----------



## NewTrade (23 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Was noticing same thing...and wonder...markets just about to tank ?




I thought we may see some stability until Fridays Fed speech...


----------



## whitefang (23 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I thought we may see some stability until Fridays Fed speech...




Hmmm...I would rather bet on the markets forcing Fed's hand...


----------



## notting (23 August 2011)

Maybe it will take a run on the Euro banks to make the German voters realise that a Eurobond is probably the best of the unsavory options!
The Germans had been enjoying a week Euro relative to what a German currency would have been fetching. Even with that benefit they had no growth last quarter.  Let's hope that last no growth figure was a one off! No wonder the markets panicked.


----------



## skyQuake (23 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Price action very bearish again overnight, but there is something which surprises me...SPI started converging with XJO, yesterday the gap narrowed to around 20 points and today almost same level as XJO, as indicating a short term reversal. Any thoughts ?
> 
> cheers,




TLS and WPL both went ex divvie


----------



## skc (23 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Groundhog day anyone?
> 
> Gold is going through the roof..somethings not quite right...




Definitely. We will probably close flat and that would have been a good result.


----------



## skc (23 August 2011)

skc said:


> Definitely. We will probably close flat and that would have been a good result.




Or may be not... new day high.

I reserve the right to change my mind for another 3 times before the market closes.


----------



## notting (23 August 2011)

US futures pointing up. (hardly reliable in a market behaving like a beach ball in space)
Yesterday, US pointing down even though the US market finished mildly positive.  
We're making up for our drop yesterday and feeling positive about tomorrow.
Gold is interesting.

Can't wait to short some gold stocks.  Not yet though.


----------



## RandR (23 August 2011)

BHP results due tomorrow, if not much transpires overnight in us and euro id expect BHP to lead the market based on its results tomorrow.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (23 August 2011)

RandR said:


> BHP results due tomorrow, if not much transpires overnight in us and euro id expect BHP to lead the market based on its results tomorrow.




You could be right, they have had very good production rates over the last 12 months and prices have been decent.


----------



## NewTrade (24 August 2011)

Foreign Markets up these last two days and the DOW performed well last night. Perhaps we will see some heavy influence in todays trading.

GL to all


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2011)

Not the type of day expected.
Vastly different to the resilience seen last week.
I really get the feeling this is distribution more than Accumulation.
Will take a fair while for some positions to be wound down---without
shocking the market.


----------



## NewTrade (24 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Not the type of day expected.
> Vastly different to the resilience seen last week.
> I really get the feeling this is distribution more than Accumulation.
> Will take a fair while for some positions to be wound down---without
> shocking the market.




I hear you, Tech. I was rather suprised to see the 50point increase as of eary morning, however not the sustained growth that I expected. Still there are many intermediate/long term buys that I consider to be decent in the mining industry.


----------



## notting (24 August 2011)

Just a downgrade to what really is the worlds worst debt nation and has been for about 20 years - Japan.
I hate it when US markets go up so much overnight. 
Just means down the next day and kills our rally in the noon.
Asia has panicked a bit over the downgrade which hasn't helped.
Still from a Tech view - nasty reversal!


----------



## whitefang (24 August 2011)

Just wondering how BHP's result is going to impact today's price action...


----------



## tech/a (24 August 2011)

> Asia has panicked




Why is everything seen as a panick
Why isnt it an astute reaction to a serious issue?


----------



## NewTrade (24 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Just wondering how BHP's result is going to impact today's price action...




I was waiting and watching BHP for that very reason but the price has not shifted all that much - in fact it is sightly down from open, but not a great deal. My interest may grow if it bust the moving average - but so far it looks like it will close slightly lower than yesterday.


----------



## whitefang (24 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why is everything seen as a panick
> Why isnt it an astute reaction to a serious issue?




Good question.
As I believe the majority of transactions are done without any human intervention, it would be hard to talk about "panicked" computers. Some retail players may panic, the rest
is algorithms kicking in.


----------



## notting (24 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why is everything seen as a panick
> Why isnt it an astute reaction to a serious issue?




Certainly wouldn't say everything is seen as a panic.
The people the sellers are selling to are not panicked! 
(Maybe later!)

However, I feel it would be slightly naive to think that the market does not trade on emotion especially when there are high percentage macro movements and sudden shifts in market direction.
The machines tend to just balance things in response to the human elements.
That's my sense of it.


----------



## skc (24 August 2011)

A very volatile day again. Opened on the high, down some 90 points by lunch, up 50 points at 3pm then closing back at the low. 

There were some pretty big movements in some pretty big companies... WOR, SUN and even a dogs like BBG, SWM, PBG went on a run. MRE put on 35% thanks to the Glencore "average down". On the other side you have all the gold down a fair bit and bad results from AIO, WTF...

All in all a colourful market map for a change, rather than all green or all red.




The BHP result after market seems to have lifted the futures somewhat.


----------



## notting (24 August 2011)

SWM I think that one had good reason and could be a middle distance runner, not just a sprinter!  It's got more certainty now. I wish they were paying a slightly less dividend than the massive 8% fully franked one coming up.  Should pay down more debt. Hate debt.


----------



## RandR (24 August 2011)

skc said:


> The BHP result after market seems to have lifted the futures somewhat.




Its a pretty good result imo, ive only spent 15 minutes looking at it, but seems to have beaten analyst forecasts pretty well. If not much happens overnight, could drive the market to a pretty good start on open tomoorow.


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## VSntchr (24 August 2011)

I think most of the market knew it was going to beat expectations, or at least achieve them...despite this...I have ZERO idea what will happen on the open tomorrow. All logic is gone!


----------



## wayneL (24 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> All logic is gone!




Was there ever any?


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## whitefang (24 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Was there ever any?




Try this...very bearish price action today...tomorrow we are up 100 points !


----------



## PinguPingu (24 August 2011)

Any ideas of what Bernanke will have to say Friday? Another short term rally on a _promise_...


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## whitefang (24 August 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> Any ideas of what Bernanke will have to say Friday? Another short term rally on a _promise_...




Don't think he is going to venture to any extremes...but the markets will


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## notting (24 August 2011)

The Bernanke meet is a stupid, media build up. The stupid markets will probably react with dissapointment. The issue is Euroland. If Bernanke announces a 20 Trillion stimulis package and gives every American $100,000 Euroland is still sinking in the dam and can harm the global banking system! USA is irrelevant at this point!

The DAX is the pulse!


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## tech/a (25 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Not the type of day expected.
> Vastly different to the resilience seen last week.
> I really get the feeling this is distribution more than Accumulation.
> Will take a fair while for some positions to be wound down---without
> shocking the market.




Its currently doing it again!


----------



## whitefang (25 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Its currently doing it again!




Agree. 
Gaps up in the morning and then fades out during the day...not very constructive.
Shows that our market takes the lead from overnight markets, but it is very concerned about the Fed's outcome (or whatever). May not hold any gains today, but let's see...


----------



## squeegee (25 August 2011)

I dont visit (or atleast contribute) here as often as I should. But I have to ask, and hope one of you experinenced guys can tell me. Perhaps my figures are wrong?

This is the thing that REALLY worries me.

Right now, with all the bad news going around, the DOW is still up some 71% from the GFC lows. I think it reached something like 93% a couple of months back. The ASX on the other hand is currently up about 30%. I think we got to maybe 55% back in April? We tracked the DOW for a while, and then we trended slowly down.

What happens if the market does Tank, and the DOW goes back to say GFC lows circa 6500....where to we head? 1800?


----------



## tech/a (25 August 2011)

My Current longer term technical view is here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=441

Post #8817


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## Struzball (25 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Agree.
> Gaps up in the morning and then fades out during the day...not very constructive.
> Shows that our market takes the lead from overnight markets, but it is very concerned about the Fed's outcome (or whatever). May not hold any gains today, but let's see...




Looks to me like the "smart people" buying "bargains" driving up the market, then once it hits resistance the short sellers sell to the "smart people", driving the market down.


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## whitefang (25 August 2011)

squeegee said:


> I dont visit (or atleast contribute) here as often as I should. But I have to ask, and hope one of you experinenced guys can tell me. Perhaps my figures are wrong?
> 
> This is the thing that REALLY worries me.
> 
> ...





I asked myself the same questions regarding what happens on the way down.
Now, on the way up...we did not track DOW in %, but if you take into consideration the
AUDUSD, then you get a different set of numbers. This may apply on the way down too...just my thinking...


----------



## tech/a (25 August 2011)

Struzball said:


> Looks to me like the "smart people" buying "bargains" driving up the market, then once it hits resistance the short sellers sell to the "smart people", driving the market down.




Hmm seen that before somewhere!

They aren't short sellers they are just plain sellers.(Selling long positions).
Lots of unwinding.
Bit like putting boards up around your house windows before a hurricane.
But as we know the only full protection is not to be there.


----------



## Struzball (25 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Hmm seen that before somewhere!


----------



## squeegee (25 August 2011)

yeah I considered the currency, but most of the 3 main euro indexes also reached peaks about 90% reclaimed.

We are constantly told by those morons in govt that we have a booming economy, and unemployment is low (compared to the USA, we are miles ahead?)

It was interesting watching Bloomberg last week (or maybe week before)....on that day that the DOW went positive to negative, and back and changed over many times before ending up big. The SPI futures did the same thing as I sat there and watched the TV.......and we were closed!

Today and yesterday is the same story has been repeated over and over again. The DOW had a good night, then the futures are down for our market, and we take our lead from that.

It is completely moronic.


----------



## investorpaul (25 August 2011)

I'm glad the Aus market is being cautious.

I am concerned that the US has got ahead of itself. I do not anticipate full blown QE3, merely tinkering at the edges.


----------



## squeegee (25 August 2011)

investorpaul said:


> I'm glad the Aus market is being cautious.
> 
> I am concerned that the US has got ahead of itself. I do not anticipate full blown QE3, merely tinkering at the edges.




I wonder if you and the rest of the market and country will be happy if the ASX shows the same "caution" on the way down if it follows the current behaviour. So so many people would get burned to extinction. Just stop and think about the ASX being at 2500, and what this would do to our country.

Whilst there, ask the same question what would happen if tommorrow the dollar went back to 80c. The whole country would be SCREWED.


----------



## Struzball (25 August 2011)

squeegee said:


> I wonder if you and the rest of the market and country will be happy if the ASX shows the same "caution" on the way down if it follows the current behaviour. So so many people would get burned to extinction. Just stop and think about the ASX being at 2500, and what this would do to our country.
> 
> Whilst there, ask the same question what would happen if tommorrow the dollar went back to 80c. The whole country would be SCREWED.




As long as the sun keeps coming up every morning I know I'll still be happy.


----------



## squeegee (25 August 2011)

Another question.......one would assume that if the market did tank, that every stock would suffer pretty well much the same punishment. I worked it out the DOW would need to drop 42% to get back to GFC lows....so would we do the same? God help us if we do.

So the big miners would go south to where? Lets say RIO at $23 and BHP at $22....whilst bad....thats ok, thats about where they were at the GFC lows

What happens to the banks? Will NAB be trading at $9?

How about all the midcaps that are right now trading at or below the GFC lows there would be scores of them? HIL,SWM,CAB....what are they all going to be trading at? 42% lower than where they are today? As I said above, god help us all if this happens.


----------



## Struzball (25 August 2011)

squeegee said:


> I worked it out the DOW would need to drop 42% to get back to GFC lows....so would we do the same? God help us if we do.




What if it goes lower?


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## skyQuake (25 August 2011)

squeegee said:


> Today and yesterday is the same story has been repeated over and over again. The DOW had a good night, then the futures are down for our market, and we take our lead from that.
> 
> It is completely moronic.




As tech/a said. Its sell strength atm. (and buy dips)
Though we should see a bit of a rally this arvo imo

Also in response to ur other question, mid caps would get smashed hard. GFC saw heaps of stocks lose 90%+ only to turn around and come back in late 2010. 
Big caps will weather it better only because theres srs money involved.


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## nulla nulla (25 August 2011)

Struzball said:


> Looks to me like the "smart people" buying "bargains" driving up the market, then once it hits resistance the short sellers sell to the "smart people", driving the market down.




I think I saw T/A say something to this effect very recently. 

When the prices driven up by the "smart Buyers" buying bargains hit "resistance" and the "shorters" step in, are you referring to CFD shorters, hedge funds selling down borrowed stock or the "Smart people" that didn't get out before now selling into the bounce to protect their capital in this period of volitility?


----------



## WhoToTrust (25 August 2011)

Read this today:

_'Bernanke Signaling No QE Backed by Higher Data'_

This caught my eye



> “We have created a very bad precedent,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. “The financial markets whine and policy officials jump. The Fed has become the Pavlov’s dog of the stock market, and this is a horrible precedent for policy makers.”


----------



## notting (25 August 2011)

USA - "Shipping volume at trucking companies, *a barometer of the broader economy*, was up 11 percent last month from a year earlier, according to Cass Information Systems. Echo Global Logistics Inc., a Chicago-based provider of freight services, said last month it’s “very optimistic about continued growth in the second half.” 

Perhaps that's why there will be no QE3.

It's about Fricking Europe any way!!!!!!!


----------



## WhoToTrust (25 August 2011)

Fud is fud. We can look at our economy by how many containers we truck around the country!


----------



## notting (25 August 2011)

Indeed we can.  It's possibly the most down to earth and dependable indicator there is!


----------



## Struzball (25 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I think I saw T/A say something to this effect very recently.
> 
> When the prices driven up by the "smart Buyers" buying bargains hit "resistance" and the "shorters" step in, are you referring to CFD shorters, hedge funds selling down borrowed stock or the "Smart people" that didn't get out before now selling into the bounce to protect their capital in this period of volitility?




All of the above I suppose, basically I was saying what is happening today looks like what T/A has been talking about. :microwave


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## WhoToTrust (25 August 2011)

Struzball said:


> :microwave




Gives the cleaners more work, is a good thang.


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## skc (26 August 2011)

Shades of 2008 again?!

Sept 2008 - *Buffett boosts Goldman Sachs with $5-billion investment*
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/09/warren-buffett.html



> The deal, announced after markets closed, amounts to a huge vote of confidence by Buffett in the investment banking titan, at a time when investors remain spooked about the future of Wall Street.
> 
> "Goldman Sachs is an exceptional institution," Buffett said in a statement. "It has an unrivaled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance."




Tonight - *Warren Buffett to invest $5 billion in Bank of America*
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/us-bankofamerica-idUSTRE77N4J420110825



> “Bank of America is a strong, well-led company, and I called Brian to tell him I wanted to invest in it,” said Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett. “I am impressed with the profit-generating abilities of this franchise, and that they are acting aggressively to put their challenges behind them. Bank of America is focused on their customers and on serving them well.”




He managed to boost the SPX for about an hour, but the night is still young I suppose.

For the record, Buffett bought into GS when it was $122. GS bottomed 2 months later at $48.


----------



## mr. jeff (26 August 2011)

Skc I have to agree with you there.
Buffett is a hero to investors so everyone watches what he does with misty eyes; thanks for posting that. 

Buffett has a very strong interest in America's economic future and any help to sentiment is positive in that respect. If He makes a large commitment to a company that some have whispered is in trouble then naturally it helps to quell the rumours and encourage other investors. It would be nice to see the large banks pull through this crisis intact. 




skc said:


> Shades of 2008 again?!
> 
> Sept 2008 - *Buffett boosts Goldman Sachs with $5-billion investment*
> http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/09/warren-buffett.html
> ...


----------



## whitefang (26 August 2011)

Interesting 1st hour today...a bit unexpected I would say...though I still expect it to drift much lower...unless some new developments in the "news" area...


----------



## skc (26 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Interesting 1st hour today...a bit unexpected I would say...though I still expect it to drift much lower...unless some new developments in the "news" area...




Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Bernake are both scheduled to hit wall street tonight.

A Friday afternoon risk-off is definitely on the card imo.


----------



## VSntchr (26 August 2011)

Agree and to put my money where my mouth is, ive hedged my portfolio with an index short...even if its not today, or monday...I cant help but think that there is alot further to fall..

Things cud fly up if tonight bodes well for the bulls, but medium term the risks are all still present...


----------



## whitefang (26 August 2011)

Hmmm....XJO has been in the 4200 area for almost 1hr ...time to break away...I thought for a long time it will break down to go another 30 points lower...now I have a few doubts and a small bounce from here is possible...


----------



## tech/a (26 August 2011)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rash-could-hit-within-weeks-warn-bankers.html




*AHHHHHHH!!!!!*


----------



## Tanaka (26 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Hmmm....XJO has been in the 4200 area for almost 1hr ...time to break away...I thought for a long time it will break down to go another 30 points lower...now I have a few doubts and a small bounce from here is possible...




I'm not holding my breath. I can't imagine there will be a lot of action given Mr. Bernanke is going to talk tonight, anything could happen in the US. Closing positions ahead of the weekend is the action of the day IMO.


----------



## whitefang (26 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rash-could-hit-within-weeks-warn-bankers.html
> 
> View attachment 44218
> 
> ...




Thanks for the link T/A. Very useful.
Just wondering how long this disconnect going to last with all these governments interventions. Last year exactly same time many analysts predicted a Sept/Oct meltdown, and here came QE2 and markets went happy for a long, long time. This time maybe the reaction to any stimulus may be subdued, but still can mask problems for a little longer. Let the markets free and then we all know what is going to happen


----------



## baby_swallow (26 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rash-could-hit-within-weeks-warn-bankers.html
> 
> 
> *AHHHHHHH!!!!!*




"No, were are not affected. We have strong fundamentals and
 sound financial systems...."
- W. Swan


----------



## stu192 (26 August 2011)

The scary thing is (I'm short at the moment) is that articles like this from the telegraph make me think that we are about to start the next bull run


----------



## notting (26 August 2011)

Something kicked the DAX and CAC up pretty sharply over the last few days of rallying. Just corrected a bit last night.
The sudden reversal of Gold is interesting - less probability of financial chaos.

US isn't going into recession.  
Germany soft quarter was just short term retraction maybe due to Japans disaster.
Oil isn't tanking.
Aus$ stronger.
Doesn't spell a market capitulation.

Last nights sell off possibly because people pretty much know nothing much will come from the Fed.  There is nothing much needed from the Fed. 
The machine just has to chug along as is.
Asia grows, we boom.
Au too high to be a real boomer for our market.
Bit boring really.


----------



## whitefang (26 August 2011)

stu192 said:


> The scary thing is (I'm short at the moment) is that articles like this from the telegraph make me think that we are about to start the next bull run




Many fundamentals (with Europe's crisis at the top) would point to a revisit of the GFC's levels.
However, my theory is that Lehman's crisis is too fresh in people's memories and the financial leaders and politicians will do everything to avoid another GFC for the moment.
In a few years time, that is another thing...


----------



## tech/a (26 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> Many fundamentals (with Europe's crisis at the top) would point to a revisit of the GFC's levels.
> However, my theory is that Lehman's crisis is too fresh in people's memories and the financial leaders and politicians will do everything to avoid another GFC for the moment.
> In a few years time, that is another thing...




Maybe maybe not.
Look how hard it was to get through the US senate.

Its becoming crystal clear you don't stop a Heart hemorrhage with a Bandaid even to the pollies.

Then again they could replace the Heart Hemorrhage with a Brain Hemorrhege and use 2 bandaids.


----------



## whitefang (26 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Then again they could replace the Heart Hemorrhage with a Brain Hemorrhege and use 2 bandaids.




That is what they are going to do, unfortunately....


----------



## Aussiejeff (26 August 2011)

whitefang said:


> That is what they are going to do, unfortunately....




Unfortunately, no quantity of bandaids will save the patient in the long term.

Only a heart AND brain transplant will suffice....else the patient is doooooomed...


----------



## WhoToTrust (26 August 2011)

> Market crash 'could hit within weeks', warn bankers




Funny how 'all of a sudden' this seems to happen.

I thought this was years in the making!  :bazooka::sword:


----------



## NewTrade (26 August 2011)

Euro markets are tanking tonight - DAX is taking a large hit, so is the FTSE


----------



## skc (26 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Euro markets are tanking tonight - DAX is taking a large hit, so is the FTSE




A large hit?!?! it's only down 3%.


----------



## NewTrade (26 August 2011)

That's enough for me to call it large....


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> That's enough for me to call it large....




I guess if it dropped by 3% a day for a week I would call it large.


----------



## NewTrade (27 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I guess if it dropped by 3% a day for a week I would call it large.




I'd call _that_ huge....


----------



## Tysonboss1 (27 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> I'd call _that_ huge....




Huge would be 25% drop in a day.


----------



## NewTrade (27 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Huge would be 25% drop in a day.




Lol, _thats_ a disaster!

Though now as I post the US market is up and the Euro markets arn't in the red by too much...


----------



## skyQuake (27 August 2011)

NewTrade said:


> Lol, _thats_ a disaster!
> 
> Though now as I post the US market is up and the Euro markets arn't in the red by too much...




europe closed an hr ago, and has only captured part of the rally. Should be a good day monday


----------



## davede (27 August 2011)

As of posting US markets were up with the S&P500 up 1.62%.

The move appears to be mainly on the back of the much-anticipated speech by Bernanke where he announced no new monetary stimulus but more importantly no need for immediate monetary stimulus.

At the same time he stated that the fed has a range of tools in the toolbox (doubtful) that they can use.

Hopefully it's not another case of the devil in the details as his remarks get more closely scrutinized before trading opens in Asia Pacific on Mon.

Curiously gold is rising again (perhaps get in again?)


----------



## notting (27 August 2011)

The Daily Telegraph declares the end of the world.

The US market drops heavily at the open.

A Feekin Hurricane is barrelling down on the most populated area of USA, looking like it's lining up about 3 major cities all in one hit.

The Fed steps up to the podium and announces Zero, Zip, Nunna, Nano, Naught, NO stimulus  - what so ever. "Suggests to congress - "If you wanna do something you can."

Then the market comes out of a little ballerina fetal crouch and jumps about 3%. Finishes 1.2% from 2% down and positive for the week.

Hmmmmm.  Murdoch was investing yesterday between 3pm and midnight?  
Maybe the hurricane is a beat up too.

Although from a technical point of view - DAX 1 year and 3 Year price and volume look -
There's a weird theme current of stength amidst all this terror.(try not to use the panic word)


----------



## nomore4s (30 August 2011)

Very weak open so far


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Very weak open so far




Boring
Glad Ive got a real job!


----------



## So_Cynical (30 August 2011)

2 now 3 posts in this thread today...are some still panicking, uncomfortable holding...or have we transitioned to the inevitable un-comfortableness of not holding. 

Panic buying.


----------



## satanoperca (30 August 2011)

Why is everyone so dramatic, it is only money.

No risk, no reward, be brave, it is only a game.

These are fun times, volatility rules, traders should be having a ball.

Cheers


----------



## Muschu (30 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> 2 now 3 posts in this thread today...are some still panicking, uncomfortable holding...or have we transitioned to the inevitable un-comfortableness of not holding.
> 
> Panic buying.




Maybe just a plateau?


----------



## So_Cynical (30 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Maybe just a plateau?




Maybe all the buying is on the back of all the dividends the holders are getting...anyone know just how much is paid out in dividends over August Sept October? must be 100's of millions. :dunno:

Theory.

The panic sellers sold to people who were not panicking...and so more dividends have ended up at the disposal of the non panicked, and so they are comfortable to put that money straight back into the market...while the still reasonably uncomfortable, plateauist's, triple dippers and traders sell.


----------



## skc (30 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> 2 now 3 posts in this thread today...are some still panicking, uncomfortable holding...or have we transitioned to the inevitable un-comfortableness of not holding.
> 
> Panic buying.




Panic buying? Greek market went up 18% yesterday. Now that's panic buying.

BTW I maintain my stance that healthy markets don't go up and down 3% every second day. But there probably isn't much point of repeating that here everyday just to boost the post count...


----------



## baby_swallow (1 September 2011)

looks like happy days are back.....
feels like August 2010 again....market is pricing
a "formal" QE3 announcement.


----------



## Struzball (1 September 2011)

baby_swallow said:


> looks like happy days are back.....
> feels like August 2010 again....market is pricing
> a "formal" QE3 announcement.




I'm confused, I'm not sure if there's sarcasm in there or not.

Was it happy days in August 2010? If so, why are we 100 points lower now?  And why would we be feeling happy about it?

Or is it happy days because the market went up 20 points today?


----------



## notting (1 September 2011)

Not much conviction today.

Interest rate cut off the cards with slightly more positive Ausi retail action.

Makes it hard for Ausi stocks and keeps international investors away.

I reckon you could just about throw a dart at the retailers and be on a winner at the moment!

The fact that The Reject shop has suffered like all the other retailers says to me it's not  internet revolution killing bricks and mortar, it's simply Ausies feeling the squeeze having committed to massive mortgages and now paying more interest than they like.
The stuff you get in the Reject shop is hardly something you would be buying over the net!

 I don't see how there can be QE3 with interest rates remaining zip for 2 years in the States. Read between the lines!!! Stupid press will not shut up about QE3 hopes lifting global markets - idiot rubbish.
People will start to believe it however if the press chant it enough which they will.

I reckon Bernanke sees a little more positive growth coming along and is keeping it quiet so the market is not disappointed but positively surprised and QE3 hopes fall into the background naturally. 

Machines idling. 

Dividends might be as exiting as it gets for a while!


----------



## WhoToTrust (1 September 2011)

Take away the sell in this vid and it pretty much sums up what I think.


----------



## notting (1 September 2011)

Can't believe people pay good money to go see see these wankers.
What's even worse is - they clap.
Thank you.  Thank you.  Thank you. I just made 200 grand out of you idiots.


----------



## vkdirector (2 September 2011)

11582.65 10:00

I know google is not the best but what a jump in 2 mins 118 points.  Will be intresting to see what comes from this


11700.91 10:02

*insert conspiracy theory here

lol


----------



## skc (2 September 2011)

vkdirector said:


> *insert conspiracy theory here






Good data (apparently) from ISM report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

By the way, the market these days will rise on bad economic data and fall on good data. The worse the data, the bigger and better the QE3...

That's why 1 hr later that initial rise has all but evaporated.


----------



## jimmyizgod (2 September 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Take away the sell in this vid and it pretty much sums up what I think.





lol around about the 6th minute he calls Hitler a "charismatic guy"
classy


----------



## skc (2 September 2011)

jimmyizgod said:


> lol around about the 6th minute he calls Hitler a "charismatic guy"
> classy




This was circulated in an email years ago...probably before email days.



> It is time to elect the world leader, and your vote counts. Here are the facts about the three leading candidates:
> 
> Candidate A
> Associates with crooked politicians, and consults with astrologists. He's had two mistresses. He also chain smokes and drinks quite a few martinis a day.
> ...




Answer here.
http://www.legacee.com/Info/Leadership/Leader_Jokes.html


----------



## Tysonboss1 (2 September 2011)

skc said:


> This was circulated in an email years ago...probably before email days.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Just shows some cherry picking of information,

if they mentioned candidate C was in a sexual relationship with his niece for years, before she was found dead having told him she was leaving him, I doubt he would appear as clean cut.


----------



## LifeChoices (2 September 2011)

I wish I didn't cherry pick BTU yesterday for what I thought was a good price.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (2 September 2011)

Call it "PANIC" if you like but Im at cash on close or 1 hour before every day at the moment.
I just dont like the world wide situation ATM and only trade on good days 
Today I made 1 trade with minor gains but atleast im now at full cash until Monday if crap goes down over the weekend im ready to take advantage of it.
My


----------



## LifeChoices (2 September 2011)

I'm adjusting my seat belt. Next week doesn't look nearly as peachy as last week - how low will we go - joe blow?


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I'm adjusting my seat belt.



Belly swell?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (2 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I'm adjusting my seat belt. Next week doesn't look nearly as peachy as last week - how low will we go - joe blow?




So whats your strategy. Do moves down cause fear or excite you. If the market rallied 500 points would you cheer? If it crashed 500 points would you be upset?

I prefer to have a strategy that welcomes both falls and rises. Either way I am happy?


----------



## LifeChoices (2 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> So whats your strategy. Do moves down cause fear or excite you. If the market rallied 500 points would you cheer? If it crashed 500 points would you be upset?
> 
> I prefer to have a strategy that welcomes both falls and rises. Either way I am happy?




I'm using the same money since 2004 in the market. I'm still down, but I'm on a steep learning curve and am determined to beat the market now. I've been taking advantage of the volatility, and have been clawing some money back in recent months. I am less emotional now about stocks, and am trading far more.

Moves down excite me as much as it strikes fear into my core. If the figures look too bad on a particular day, I'll head out for a surf.

If the market crashed 500 points tomorrow I think I'd be happier than if it went sideways for the next two years - as it has done. Besides I'd like to test my hedge bets.


----------



## notting (2 September 2011)

Jobs report in US was pretty much as bad as could have been expected.
And over there in Europe, that almost looks like a fricken collapse!
Our father who art in heaven,  hallowed be thy n........


----------



## LifeChoices (2 September 2011)

I've got a gut feeling that this thread will be back on top - where it belongs - next week?


----------



## notting (3 September 2011)

It is, however, a good time for the US governent to sue all the US banks! Don't you think?
That's what the people need!  'Their' banks sued!
How about sueing the dick heads running them!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (3 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I'm using the same money since 2004 in the market. I'm still down, but I'm on a steep learning curve and am determined to beat the market now. I've been taking advantage of the volatility, and have been clawing some money back in recent months. I am less emotional now about stocks, and am trading far more.
> 
> Moves down excite me as much as it strikes fear into my core. If the figures look too bad on a particular day, I'll head out for a surf.
> 
> If the market crashed 500 points tomorrow I think I'd be happier than if it went sideways for the next two years - as it has done. Besides I'd like to test my hedge bets.




I trade very little, I know the "traders" will disagree, but I don't believe in the gin rummy approach to business, I think of the the companies I own a shares of in the same way I think of the businesses I own 100% of. 

What my family business could sell for on any minute of any day is not a concern to me, and neither is what a company I own shares in, except if I decide to either buy out one of my partners because the price is low and I happen to have some cash, or he offers a crazy high price. 

What I do care about is the results of the company and how is performing, not the day to day price. 

I spend my time thinking about the future of the businesses, and working out a price I can pay to be sure it will work out as a decent investment, and if some one decides to sell part of the business at that price I may take some.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 September 2011)

notting said:


> Jobs report in US was pretty much as bad as could have been expected.
> And over there in Europe, that almost looks like a fricken collapse!
> Our father who art in heaven,  hallowed be thy n........






LifeChoices said:


> I've got a gut feeling that this thread will be back on top - where it belongs - next week?




http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...s-report-shows-u-s-jobs-growth-stagnates.html



			
				Above link said:
			
		

> report showed the U.S. economy added no jobs last month and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent.




Standing still is not a decline...the uncomfortable will sell and the comfortable will exchange their money for the holdings of the weak...next Fridays US close will be higher than this Fridays close. 

Fundamentally 9.1% at this point in the recovery is to be expected and no big deal.


----------



## nulla nulla (3 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...s-report-shows-u-s-jobs-growth-stagnates.html
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Good call SC. Let the skittish panic and stout hearted look for the opportunities.


----------



## Bill M (3 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I trade very little, I know the "traders" will disagree, but I don't believe in the gin rummy approach to business, I think of the the companies I own a shares of in the same way I think of the businesses I own 100% of.
> 
> *What my family business could sell for on any minute of any day is not a concern to me, and neither is what a company I own shares in, except if I decide to either buy out one of my partners because the price is low and I happen to have some cash, or he offers a crazy high price. *
> 
> ...




I am also a long term investor and I'm with you.

I can hardly wait for the markets to come down. I've been accumulating my dividends in my UBANK account just waiting for the dip so I can add to my portfolio. Buying good quality stocks when everyone else is selling them cheap is something that has paid off for me very well in the past.

Just did a search for a 5 year term deposit, the best you can get right now is 6.38%, interest rates are coming down. In the meantime blue chip stocks get cheaper and their dividends get higher. On the last dip I bought SVWPA for $86 with a gross divi of 12%. 

I am hoping for a dip to 3800 but if the lower prices don't materialise then I can still buy the ANZ CPS3 IPO which I have a firm allocation for, cheers.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (3 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Standing still is not a decline...the uncomfortable will sell and the comfortable will exchange their money for the holdings of the weak...next Fridays US close will be higher than this Fridays close.
> 
> Fundamentally 9.1% at this point in the recovery is to be expected and no big deal.




Well actually no, it's not expected, at this point in the 'recovery'. It (the unemployment rate) should be a lot lower, if going by past 'recoveries'?




If you do some research into the 'birth/death' ratio you can see that a lot of the employment statistics for several qtrs have most likely overstated employment and that there probably has been a continuing decline in employment. And that's just for the U3 figure. What yo need to look at is the U6 - 



> The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking  full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts  "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic  reasons."  		Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3  could be working as little as an hour a week.  		And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten  discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.







So good luck with your call for next week..................


----------



## Uncle Festivus (3 September 2011)

Bill M said:


> I can hardly wait for the markets to come down.




If you wait a few more months you can buy at recession prices


----------



## Bill M (3 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> If you wait a few more months you can buy at recession prices




Yes I have that in mind, I am preparing for a 3800 entry and 3100, after that the spare cash will be almost gone, cheers.


----------



## nulla nulla (3 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> If you wait a few more months you can buy at recession prices




And while you are waiting you can trade the dips and rises.


----------



## RandR (3 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well actually no, it's not expected, at this point in the 'recovery'. It (the unemployment rate) should be a lot lower, if going by past 'recoveries'?




If it wasnt expected that employment would most probably remain flat for august, then who was expecting it to increase ?


----------



## Logique (3 September 2011)

The accelerating trend in offshoring would magnify the employment losses compared to earlier decades.

An hour a week and you're considered employed, not much credibility in the way they express these figures.


----------



## notting (3 September 2011)

Bill M said:


> Yes I have that in mind, I am preparing for a 3800 entry and 3100, after that the spare cash will be almost gone, cheers.



I think it's unreliable to have a number in mind. Obviously the pivot low of the last panic Tuesday is worth keeping in mind. However I am whatching for something fundamental that will break the status quo before emptying the bucket.
Will they get a Euro bond up and running before there is some kind of collapse?
Either will be game changers.
Everyone has to print to counter what China a has done by manipulating it's currency and destroying manufacturing and employment all over the world.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (3 September 2011)

notting said:


> Everyone has to print to counter what China a has done by manipulating it's currency and destroying manufacturing and employment all over the world.




And therin lies the root cause of the problems the connected global economy faces, apart from the hangover from a 40 year credit binge....until China too cannot continue with it's 'forced demand' economic policies.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well actually no, it's not expected, at this point in the 'recovery'. It (the unemployment rate) should be a lot lower, if going by past 'recoveries'?
> 
> View attachment 44330
> 
> ...










Uncle F

There seems to be something wrong with your chart

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1980s_recession



			
				 wiki link above said:
			
		

> in May 1980. A mild recession from January to July 1980 kept unemployment high, but despite economic recovery unemployment remained at historically high levels (about 7.5%) through the end of 1981.[5] Unemployment continued to grow through 1982, *reaching 10% nationally*




I'm basing my "Fundamentally 9.1% at this point in the recovery is to be expected and no big deal." comment on the fact that the US and Euro financial system didn't stop working in the late 70's and early 80's like it did in the GFC and yet US unemployment reached 10% thus making the current 9% look reasonably upbeat in comparison.


----------



## Chasero (3 September 2011)

I'm guessing ALL ORDS are going tank by about 2.5% come Monday, we always seem to go 0.5% more than the U.S. movement.

Then shares will be volatile all September reaching highs of roughly 4,350 before the speech come September 20-21.

I'd say get in now while it tanks this week because QE 3 or some sort of US policy is coming (speculation)


----------



## dhukka (3 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...s-report-shows-u-s-jobs-growth-stagnates.html
> 
> 
> 
> ...




As UncleF quite rightly points out this certainly wasn't expected at this point in the recovery. the US economy should be producing approximately 200k jobs a month at this point in the so-called recovery, you need around 125k a month just to keep up with population growth. 

The unemployment rate has been over 9% for 27 months, a record in post WWII data, (previous record was 18 months in 82,83). The unemployment rate is higher today than it was 7 months ago, you don't expect that in any type of recovery, GFC or not. The US economy has clearly slowed and that is starting to show up in the employment numbers (lagging indicator) in recent months.


----------



## dhukka (3 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Uncle F
> 
> There seems to be something wrong with your chart
> 
> ...




There is nothing wrong with the chart except for the minor error that it has been 43 months not 44 since the peak in employment. I suspect calculatedrisk hasn't updated for the revisions. 

The way unemployment rates were calculated during the 70's and 80's was different from now, (changes makes the headline number 'U3' look better today) so it's not an apples to apples comparison. Anyway the unemployment rate did reach 10% this time round. 

In Dec 1982 the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% and was back below 9% within 10 months. This time around the US unemployment rate peaked at 10.1% in Oct 2009, almost 2 years later and the unemployment rate is still above 9%.


----------



## dhukka (3 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> If you do some research into the 'birth/death' ratio you can see that a lot of the employment statistics for several qtrs have most likely overstated employment and that there probably has been a continuing decline in employment. And that's just for the U3 figure. What yo need to look at is the U6 -




Uncle, while it is certainly true that the B/D model tends not to anticipate turning points in the economic cycle, you have to be careful not to overstate it's effect. The monthly B/D adjustment is not seasonally adjusted so you can't subtract it from the seasonally adjusted nfp number to adjust for a possible overstatement.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 September 2011)

dhukka said:


> In Dec 1982 the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% and was back below 9% within 10 months. This time around the US unemployment rate peaked at 10.1% in Oct 2009, almost 2 years later and the unemployment rate is still above 9%.




The other point is that the US in the late 70's and early 80's was very much an economy in transition (shedding jobs) from manufacturing to services...the US economy has now well and truly transitioned, unfortunately money/finance is at the core of many of those service industry's.


----------



## skc (4 September 2011)

Now that we are talking unemployment can someone enlighten me something?

We see weekly initial jobless claims in US around 400k. Over 4 weeks that's like 1.6m jobs.

Then we see 0 new jobs created this month.

But the data doesn't seem to suggest that US unemployment has increased by 1.6m.

How does one reconcile the two data serious?


----------



## skc (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I'm guessing ALL ORDS are going tank by about 2.5% come Monday, we always seem to go 0.5% more than the U.S. movement.
> 
> Then shares will be volatile all September reaching highs of roughly 4,350 before the speech come September 20-21.
> 
> I'd say get in now while it tanks this week because QE 3 or some sort of US policy is coming (speculation)




US govn't sueing the banks for $196B...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...d-by-fhfa-over-196-billion-in-securities.html

This news came after market close so expect more bloodbath in global markets, esp with the US on labour day holiday.

I think anyone expect QE3 to raise share prices any more than a blip will be sorely disappointed and greatly in the red...


----------



## skyQuake (4 September 2011)

skc said:


> US govn't sueing the banks for $196B...
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...d-by-fhfa-over-196-billion-in-securities.html
> 
> This news came after market close so expect more bloodbath in global markets, esp with the US on labour day holiday.
> ...




News came out in fri noon aus time about banks being sued for $50bil.
So I'd guess a bit of it is expected


----------



## Chasero (4 September 2011)

skc said:


> US govn't sueing the banks for $196B...
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...d-by-fhfa-over-196-billion-in-securities.html
> 
> This news came after market close so expect more bloodbath in global markets, esp with the US on labour day holiday.
> ...




So negative!

I for one expect shares to rally quite a bit if QE 3 or more talks of expansionary policies can somehow help the US economy.

I really think if we reach the lows of 2009 the market will bounce back up, or at worse move sideways.

US economy is NOT entering recession, and if it does, I'll be praying long and hard to not push the sell button on my portfolio..

Swings are just part of the game. I'm expecting a -2.5% net low for the week, really low on Monday and bouncing back later this week after the upcoming speeches.


----------



## wayneL (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> So negative!
> 
> I for one expect shares to rally quite a bit if QE 3 or more talks of expansionary policies can somehow help the US economy.
> 
> ...




Sounds more like hope.

I "hope" it works out that way for you and I expect them to try to jawbone the market higher as well.

But in the end, we have to deal with reality. It's ok having a view and trading to it, but a plan B (C,D,E,F,G etc lol) is usually a good idea.


----------



## dhukka (4 September 2011)

skc said:


> Now that we are talking unemployment can someone enlighten me something?
> 
> We see weekly initial jobless claims in US around 400k. Over 4 weeks that's like 1.6m jobs.
> 
> ...




That's because there wasn't zero jobs created this month, there was probably somewhere between 1 - 2 million jobs created, only problem is that the same number was lost, the number you see reported is just the net of the two. You should also be careful about putting too much credence in one month's data, particularly since it will be revised several times. The trend is what you need to pay attention to and that is clearly slowing, even if you add back the 45,000 striking Verizon workers this month. 




> A 4-week average of about 400,000 - 425,000 jobless claims is roughly where we would expect to observe flat jobs growth (excluding temporary factors like census hiring).



source


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 September 2011)

skc said:


> Now that we are talking unemployment can someone enlighten me something?
> 
> We see weekly initial jobless claims in US around 400k. Over 4 weeks that's like 1.6m jobs.
> 
> ...




400K figure relates to how many people signed to claim unemployment, if after 4 weeks their have been 1.6M make the claim it does not mean their are 1.6M extra people that are unemployed.

For example, If this week 400K people get fired and claim unemployment, the figure will state there was 400K unemployment claims, But looking at the figure alone does not show the 400K who claimed in prior weeks who found employment, completely offsetting those that were fired to result in zero change.


----------



## dhukka (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> So negative!
> 
> I for one expect shares to rally quite a bit if QE 3 or more talks of expansionary policies can somehow help the US economy.




I'm more inclined to agree with skc about the magnitude of a QE3 induced rally. I'm sure markets will get a bounce but I think it will be of the dead cat type. Remember in 2008, the market rallied hard when the Fed cut interest rates for the first time. Then each subsequent rate cut was met with a rally that was shorter in magnitude and duration to the point where finally the rally lasted only a few hours.

I see the same type of trend with QE, we now know that QE2 didn't work except to kick the recession can down the road a bit. QE3 won't work either, below is good summary of what QE2 achieved:



> Two One-Way Lanes on the Road to Ruin
> 
> Without question, one of the notions buoying Wall Street optimism here is the hope that the Fed will pull another rabbit out of its hat by initiating QE3. That's a nice sentiment, but it does overlook one minor detail. _QE2 didn't work_.
> 
> Actually, that's not quite fair. The Federal Reserve was indeed successful at provoking a speculative frenzy in the financial markets, which has now been completely wiped out. The Fed was also successful in leveraging its balance sheet by more than 55-to-1 (more than Bear Stearns, Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or even Long-Term Capital Management ever achieved), and driving the monetary base to more than 18 cents for every dollar of GDP - a level that requires short-term interest rates to remain below about 3 basis points in order to maintain price stability ( see Charles Plosser and the 50% Contraction in the Fed's Balance Sheet ). The Fed was indeed successful in provoking a wave of commodity hoarding that affected global supplies and injured the poorest of the poor - particularly in developing countries. The Fed was successful in setting off a very predictable decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. The Fed was successful in punishing savers and the risk averse, and driving investors to reach for yield in risky investments that they would normally avoid were it not for the absence of yield. The Fed was successful in provoking those with strong balance sheets to pay down existing higher interest-rate debt, and in creating an incentive for those with weak balance sheets to issue more of it at low rates, resulting in a simultaneous deterioration of credit quality and compensation for risk in the financial system. The Fed was successful at boosting the trading profits of the banks that serve as primary dealers, by announcing precisely which securities it would be buying prior to Treasury auctions, and buying them on the open market a few days later from the dealers that acquired them. The Fed was successful in creating a portfolio of low yielding securities that will be almost impossible to disgorge without capital losses unless the Fed holds them to maturity. On proper reflection, the list of the Fed's successes from QE2 is nothing short of stunning.






Chasero said:


> US economy is NOT entering recession, and if it does, I'll be praying long and hard to not push the sell button on my portfolio..




You might want to take a look at the US economy again, while no single economic indicator gives a clear signal of recession, there currently exists a 'syndrome of conditions' that has always and only ever been observed immediately prior to or during recessions.


----------



## Chasero (4 September 2011)

Seems like everyone is a bear nowadays and expecting the US economy to TANK.

I do NOT see a lot of good news ahead, especially with the suing of US banks really going to negatively impact people this week holding financial stocks. I do however see some possible (money making) rallies.

I've looked at the US economic data and most analysts are saying it's looking at a slower rate of growth but with only 40% chance to lead to recession.

With so much negative outlook it's no wonder shares are dipping, then quickly rising. The volatility is so exciting!

Also, if you look at the weak job data that just came out PLUS the fact that banks are being sued, the US stock market didn't even dip that much heading to the long weekend! Volume remained quite low. Hence why I think everyone's waiting for some sort of policy being announced in Sept.

Nice little report to read:
http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/e...-report-but-theres-a-silver-lining-1496247708


Job data are not pointing towards recession


The flat reading for the August change in NFPs may have caught some bulls off guard, but when we dig deeper the report it was actually better than the headline flat reading suggests.

The ADP Employment Change of 91K may have given hopes of a better number, but methodological differences explain much of variation since the Verizon (-45K) strike does not feature in the ADP data but does in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Adding the strike back, we land at +45K, not bad for a month mired by strikes, debt discussions and recessions fears. Though in no way does this mean that this is a good number by any means.

The unemployment rate held at 9.1% despite a gain in labour participation to 64% from 63.9%. This was due to a large influx of employees in the Household Surveys – on which the Unemployment Rate is based – of +331K. However, other measures of labour market health such as weekly hours and average hourly earnings deteriorated and thus this report cannot be labelled as anything but weak.

Overall, we deem this report to be positive given the news surrounding the report, but weak on an absolute basis. It is certainly not impressive by any standards, but also not the thing of recessions. The Verizon strike should add back in the September report (note how Household Employment grew despite the strike since it does not count such) and we remain faithful to our “not-recession, but bumbling-along scenario”.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Seems like everyone is a bear nowadays and expecting the US economy to TANK.




Not me. 

The USA has some problems, There is no doubt about that, But the are not terminal.

The US economy will not disappear, It will be Lumpy for a while, But who cares.

The USA will definately be less important in 40years than it was in the 70's, obviously this will happen as the rest of the world grows up around them.

But, to say that the USA is doomed is crazy, there will still be consumption happening, and good and services will be moving, and profits will be made by business.


----------



## Chasero (4 September 2011)

September will definitely be an interesting month, probably not as brutal as August.

Can't wait! Everyone seems to be holding their breath for Obama's speech as much as they were with Bernanke's speech.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...o-be-very-bold-in-jobs-address-next-week.html


----------



## dhukka (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Seems like everyone is a bear nowadays and expecting the US economy to TANK.
> 
> I've looked at the US economic data and most analysts are saying it's looking at a slower rate of growth but with only 40% chance to lead to recession.




Putting aside the fact that the consensus of economists has never predicted a recession in history, quoting the consensus of economists does not qualify as looking at US economic data.  Have you looked at the ISM's, regional PMI's, credit spreads YoY GDP growth, YoY Non-farm payroll growth along with the stock market? Taken together all these indicators represent a syndrome of conditions that have *always* and *only* been present either immediately prior to or during recessions. This is not an opinion, it is a fact of the data. Of course this time could be different, but I think most would agree it is not advisable not to build an investment strategy around that outcome. 





> Nice little report to read:
> http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/e...-report-but-theres-a-silver-lining-1496247708
> 
> 
> ...




The biggest problem with this report is that the author doesn't know what he's talking about. Firstly, employment data is not predictive of recessions, it is a lagging indicator, if you wait for employment to give you a recession signal, you are already in recession and thus too late. 

At the official start of the recession in December 2007, the 3 month moving average of payroll growth was 101k per month. We are now at 35k per month, even if you add back the Verizon workers you are at 50k per month, well below the levels that kicked off the last recession. That doesn't mean that we are already in recession but that the authors of the above report are ignorant of the historical data. 

In December 2007, payroll growth was 84k, employing the logic of the authors above, they would have concluded that the jobs data was not pointing to recession when in fact the economy was already in recession.


----------



## Struzball (4 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> But, to say that the USA is doomed is crazy, there will still be consumption happening, and good and services will be moving, and profits will be made by business.




The USA is far from doomed, I believe the USA will be the greatest most prosperous country in the next 40 years.

Investing in the USA today will definitely pay off in the future.

However at the moment it's unsustainable.  If everything keeps going the way it is going now, it _will_ be doomed and won't become the country it can be.  Luckily, the coming economic crash over the next 12-18 months will steer the USA into a more sustainable prosperous future. 

So I'm not "negative".. I'm quite positive, I just don't think optimism is a trait that will prevent me losing money in the stock market.


----------



## howmanyru (4 September 2011)

The USA is not doomed, their average standard of living is doomed. Get rid of 80% of Government, military, abolish the fed & they could be great again !


----------



## tech/a (4 September 2011)

If you think about it a bit one more serious strike on the US.
Or the rescue of another country ( I noticed they let the insurgence get rid of gaddafi)
And you will see the USA in super deep do do.

Don't think I'm the only nutter who knows this!


----------



## Chasero (4 September 2011)

dhukka said:


> Putting aside the fact that the consensus of economists has never predicted a recession in history, quoting the consensus of economists does not qualify as looking at US economic data.  Have you looked at the ISM's, regional PMI's, credit spreads YoY GDP growth, YoY Non-farm payroll growth along with the stock market? Taken together all these indicators represent a syndrome of conditions that have *always* and *only* been present either immediately prior to or during recessions. This is not an opinion, it is a fact of the data. Of course this time could be different, but I think most would agree it is not advisable not to build an investment strategy around that outcome.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I've looked at 3 things. ISM, unemployment and GDP growth.

ISM is above 50, indicating that the economy is only slightly expanding.

GDP growth was 0.4% in the first quarter, and 1% in the second. Unemployment remained stagnant.

Isn't a recession characterised by TWO quarters of negative growth?

I think all this talk about recession is actually going to fuel enough fears to drive the U.S. into a recession. That's why we have the politicians! They need to do something and do something NOW (which I guess is what everyone is waiting for).

Show us the plans. Boost some confidence. Maybe the US economy is going to get out of this mess.

The only thing that really worries me is that market sentiment is at an all time LOW, so with inaction, yes, I do think the US economy may have a higher risk of entering a recession.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> I just don't think optimism is a trait that will prevent me losing money in the stock market.




Ofcourse not, only making sound investments that are backed by thorough analysis, margin of safty and a base of actual stock market experiance.

I suppose it also  hinges on what you call "losing" money, 

If you class losing money as buying a stock and having it go lower than you purchase price in the next couple of days well then there is a good chance of that.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> The only thing that really worries me is that market sentiment is at an all time LOW, so with inaction, yes, I do think the US economy may have a higher risk of entering a recession.




Would a recession cause share prices to sink? Probably yes, 

But would a recession have a terrible longterm effect on the earning power of good companies? Probably not, 

As far as I can see a recession is nothing to fear, We will have recessions in the future, lots of them, every country will, even china. We have had many recessions in the past, Even periods that people look back on as being very prosperous were dotted with recessions along the way.

Even if you started dollar cost averaging into the market during the great depression you would have made money.


----------



## IFocus (4 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Would a recession cause share prices to sink? Probably yes,
> 
> But would a recession have a terrible longterm effect on the earning power of good companies? Probably not,
> 
> ...




One problem............this time is different 

Seriously  normally recessions come from the business cycle, this one coming for the USA and possibly here is far more insidiousness in that its forming as a result of dept, more importantly sovereign dept is in the mix. 

Until the dept problems are addressed (there currently is no political will in USA to do this as it means pain) then the markets will continue to measure stock pricing world wide by risk.

BTW Europe is the real elephant in the room, the US is really just a side show.


----------



## dhukka (4 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I've looked at 3 things. ISM, unemployment and GDP growth.
> 
> ISM is above 50, indicating that the economy is only slightly expanding.
> 
> ...




You are obviously new to this stuff but that's OK, you have to learn somehow. No, recessions are not characterised by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  The NBER is the official arbiter of US recessions, from their website:



> During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.....
> 
> The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP)....




The ISM PMI registered 51.1 in January 2008, the second month of the recession, the ISM Non Manufacturing survey of business activity was 54.3 in December 2007 the first month of recession. No single economic indicator is going to signal a recession but a number of economic indicators at particular levels taken together have historically always and only been observed immediately prior to or during recessions. See here for the list.



> I think all this talk about recession is actually going to fuel enough fears to drive the U.S. into a recession. That's why we have the politicians! They need to do something and do something NOW (which I guess is what everyone is waiting for).
> 
> Show us the plans. Boost some confidence. Maybe the US economy is going to get out of this mess.




Anyone who has been watching the last few years knows that politicians don't have the answers, if anything, we could do with less action from politicians.



> The only thing that really worries me is that market sentiment is at an all time LOW, so with inaction, yes, I do think the US economy may have a higher risk of entering a recession.




What evidence do you have to suggest sentiment is at an all time low? The chart below is the AAII investor sentiment survey, the latest reading for percentage of bullish members is dead in line with the long term average.




Interesting blog post from Barry Ritholtz today. What does that say about sentiment among so-called professionals on Wall Street?

Wall Street Strategists Are (Surprise!) Bullish


----------



## dhukka (4 September 2011)

IFocus said:


> One problem............this time is different
> 
> Seriously  normally recessions come from the business cycle, this one coming for the USA and possibly here is far more insidiousness in that its forming as a result of dept, more importantly sovereign dept is in the mix.
> 
> ...




Yes but which department are you talking about?


----------



## Dutchy3 (4 September 2011)

Interesting position for those that like charts.

Just prior to the drop last month the DJIA put in a Double top. Rather emphatic and this was confirmed as the index dropped away. At the same time the ASX200 was already below its 150 period EMA and looking relatively weaker. The ASX200 dropped away accordingly.

Fast forward to the current action .... The DJIA is forming into a flag ... 11,100 needs to hold Monday, Tuesday next week ... if it does then the market might be stabilising. This flag however might be a pause before another sharp decrease in coming weeks. Lets see how that goes.

Contrast with ASX200. We are actually looking stronger that the DJIA now ... Could even form into an ascending triangle ... if this is the case I'd expect 4150 to hold this week.

In any event these patterns need to resolve. When they break ... be ready to take positions that reconcile ... I'm of the opinion that it should be higher however the DJIA is still happy to sell off quick smart.


----------



## skc (4 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> 400K figure relates to how many people signed to claim unemployment, if after 4 weeks their have been 1.6M make the claim it does not mean their are 1.6M extra people that are unemployed.






dhukka said:


> That's because there wasn't zero jobs created this month, there was probably somewhere between 1 - 2 million jobs created, only problem is that the same number was lost, the number you see reported is just the net of the two.




Thanks. I suppose at some point the initial jobless claims will fall... although that point might be when there are no more jobs to be lost...



Dutchy3 said:


> Interesting position for those that like charts.
> 
> *Contrast with ASX200. We are actually looking stronger that the DJIA now ... *Could even form into an ascending triangle ... if this is the case I'd expect 4150 to hold this week.




The ASX200 is lagging 24 hours compared to the DJIA - we haven't had time to follow DJIA's Friday fall. Futures indicating ~4170 but we will go below that. A host of large companies going ex-div next week isn't going to help. BHP alone is probably worth quite a few points.


----------



## skc (4 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> News came out in fri noon aus time about banks being sued for $50bil.
> So I'd guess a bit of it is expected




SkyQ, do you know the time stamp of the law suit being filed? It's been brewing for a few days so it might be priced in to some extent, but I don't know if people knew the exact magnitute of it. Although you have to say that BofA was given plenty of notices to get the money from Uncle Warren and selling their China Construction Bank stake.

 BTW... US is now only $40B or so from the newly raised debt ceiling. Hmmm...

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=11090100.pd


----------



## Chasero (4 September 2011)

Thanks for clarifying, I always thought the US worked the same way as it does in Australia in regards to classifying what is a recession.

Anyway, on more hopeful news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/03/us-markets-bonds-outlook-idUSTRE78146D20110903


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 September 2011)

IFocus said:


> One problem............this time is different
> 
> .




It always is isn't?


----------



## VSntchr (5 September 2011)

down 2.2% and only 1 post today. Whats going on guys!


----------



## Boggo (5 September 2011)

VSntchr said:


> down 2.2% and only 1 post today. Whats going on guys!




Considering that it is 'panic' thread, maybe those left on here don't panic, they see what is coming and are prepared.

It seems to be only the "bargain at these prices" brigade that panic


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Havent time to post too busy panicking.


----------



## Boggo (5 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Havent time to post too busy panicking.




I don't believe that for a second tech/a, I reckon you would have a dozen or so on a short list that you will dig out when the XAO hits 3700


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Boggo said:


> I don't believe that for a second tech/a, I reckon you would have a dozen or so on a short list that you will dig out when the XAO hits 3700




Might be looking at a bit lower.
3100 ish.
Not rushing to the long trading floor.

But in the meantime enjoying the volatility in the Futs.
Stops to B/E and getting my fair share of ticks is fine for
me while Rome Burns.


----------



## skc (5 September 2011)

SPI 4145 is being defended quite valiantly... but the bodies of the longs are piling up. I doubt it will be able to last much longer...


----------



## sammy84 (5 September 2011)

This should be the last leg down. Have been waiting been patiently waiting in cash a while for this. 9th of August was the low. We need to test to test the 4100-3800 region again however before one can be sure.

Obviously if the low if broken convincingly I am wrong.


----------



## howmanyru (5 September 2011)

Sammy, i am in the same boat & have cash waiting for a short term trade if the market drops enough. But what is enough? What level would entice you back into the market? Unless the US continues to drop heavily for several more days it is unlikely we will get close to 3800 IMO.


----------



## sammy84 (5 September 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Sammy, i am in the same boat & have cash waiting for a short term trade if the market drops enough. But what is enough? What level would entice you back into the market? Unless the US continues to drop heavily for several more days it is unlikely we will get close to 3800 IMO.




I would like to see a wide ranging bar in the 4100-3800 area. Closing near it's high and increased volume. Also don't want to see heavy volume in the down days proceeding it. Pretty much looking for a reversal bar.


----------



## howmanyru (5 September 2011)

sammy84 said:


> I would like to see a wide ranging bar in the 4100-3800 area. Closing near it's high and increased volume. Also don't want to see heavy volume in the down days proceeding it. Pretty much looking for a reversal bar.




Thanks Sammy, so a day like August 9 would be it i guess, will watch with baited breath !!!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 September 2011)

howmanyru said:


> But what is enough?




When you can buy great companies for less than a resonable longterm business owner would pay for the whole business.


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> When you can buy great companies for less than a resonable longterm business owner would pay for the whole business.




But then your basing it on worth now.
If the current downturn/recession/depression/boom or whatever is included in the price of the company going forward then it may not be the bargain it appears to be today!


----------



## sammy84 (5 September 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Thanks Sammy, so a day like August 9 would be it i guess, will watch with baited breath !!!




Yeah exactly. Except I would imagine we would get a range like that day! A similar looking bar but on a much smaller scale.


----------



## skc (5 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> When you can buy great companies *for less than a resonable longterm business owner *would pay for the whole business.




Completely off topic...Are there any owners of private businesses here? 

I've always wondered why businesses on the share market are valued so much higher than small private businesses?

For instance, RFG sells donuts and they are trading at >9x earnings. But if you are buying a coffee shop, a restaurant, a franchise donut shop etc, I bet you no one would pay 9x earnings. I don't know exactly how much one would pay for it, but I am guessing 2.5-4x earnings at most. Same with other industries...

What are the differences?


----------



## investorpaul (5 September 2011)

skc said:


> Completely off topic...Are there any owners of private businesses here?
> 
> I've always wondered why businesses on the share market are valued so much higher than small private businesses?
> 
> ...




Hi SKC,

It is not only small scale businesses either. The company I used to work for owned a private college (Net Profit was $15m p.a.) and it was sold to a small private equity firm for 6 x earnings. 

A couple of months later there was an article in the AFR about the company buying up a heap of colleges that they were going to list on the stock market with an anticipated PE of 10.

Im not sure if they endd up listing cause of the GFC etc but it was interesting to see and read about their strategy.


----------



## The Falcon (5 September 2011)

skc said:


> Completely off topic...Are there any owners of private businesses here?
> 
> I've always wondered why businesses on the share market are valued so much higher than small private businesses?
> 
> ...




I am a Director/Co-founder of a private business. In our industry we see businesses changing hands from anywhere from 6-9 times EBIT, rarely much higer. Larger businesses generally will achieve a higher multiple due to added strategic value and lower perceived risk due to scale.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 September 2011)

skc said:


> Completely off topic...Are there any owners of private businesses here?
> 
> I've always wondered why businesses on the share market are valued so much higher than small private businesses?
> 
> ...




Yes I own a private business, 

If you spoke to an owner of a cafe and asked him how much it earned and how much he could sell it for he might say it earned $150,000pa and was worth $300,000.

This does not mean it is trading at 2 X earnings, because not doubt he spent many hours working and if an investor was to buy it he would have to hire a manager earning perhaps $100K a year to replace the owner operator,

So the true earnings are $50Kpa so it would be 6 times earnings if he sold for $300,000.

When you own a share in a company, you are a non managing partner, you are not required to take part in any of the day to day operations etc because you have a board of directors and management working for you, So obviously the amount you are willing to pay would be higher than you would pay if you had to dedicate time to running the businesses your self.


----------



## skc (5 September 2011)

investorpaul said:


> It is not only small scale businesses either. The company I used to work for owned a private college (Net Profit was $15m p.a.) and it was sold to a small private equity firm for 6 x earnings.
> 
> A couple of months later there was an article in the AFR about the company buying up a heap of colleges that they were going to list on the stock market with an anticipated PE of 10.
> 
> Im not sure if they endd up listing cause of the GFC etc but it was interesting to see and read about their strategy.




Yup the consolidator model can do quite well. ABC learning was a prime example until... 



The Falcon said:


> I am a Director/Co-founder of a private business. In our industry we see businesses changing hands from anywhere from 6-9 times EBIT, rarely much higer. Larger businesses generally will achieve a higher multiple due to added strategic value and lower perceived risk due to scale.




Thanks Falcon... listed businesses often go for 10-12x EBIT so definitely a premium there.



Tysonboss1 said:


> Yes I own a private business,
> 
> If you spoke to an owner of a cafe and asked him how much it earned and how much he could sell it for he might say it earned $150,000pa and was worth $300,000.
> 
> ...




Fair enough. Still a little bit cheaper for private vs listed but I guess the ability to access capital, the possibility of attracting high quality management and the perceived reduction in risk due to scale seem to justify higher multiples for listed entities. Offset against that are loss of control, the high cost of management and risks related to agency theory...

Well good food for thought. Thanks all for the responses.

Back to panicking.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 September 2011)

Yes private are cheaper than listed, but also most private have the owners performing some function, so it's never a truly passive investment as owning a share is.


----------



## WhoToTrust (5 September 2011)

Gee, a lot of posts on recent news, but not the problem.

Yes, the WORLD economy had great years from the 80's, 10% rises on average per year, these days have stopped.  The problem that is a house of cards is still massive debt, compounded by the fact that a lot of the debtors are also creditors.

US banks are being sued, by the same Gov that bailed them out.  Why are not the ratings agencies being sued as well(due diligence)?

No-one really knows how this will turn out, causing doubt, which changes sentiment.  People have seen their investments/super decline substantially because of basic fraud and deceit, which seemed to be rewarded by the US Gov in the very recent, they are wary of this and do not wish it to happen to them again.

More money printing (quantitative easing) will not help pay off debt.  And it raises more moral questions for the rest of the world.  Why should the US have this ability, when others, say in the Euro zone, cannot?  They might like to beggar thy neighbour as well, but cannot.

Debt is the elephant in the room as I see it, and am wondering what will happen when the first default happens, if it ever does.

I think tech/a said it a couple of hundred posts ago, what has changed?


:fan:horse:


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> But then your basing it on worth now.
> If the current downturn/recession/depression/boom or whatever is included in the price of the company going forward then it may not be the bargain it appears to be today!




When I value a company I am not simply taking the last years good results and applying multiple to it.

I am trying to establish what the earning power of the assets are over time, factoring in good years and bad, and then buying them when I can get them at a price that includes a margin of safety.


----------



## Struzball (5 September 2011)

The DAX is very interesting to watch at the moment.


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> The DAX is very interesting to watch at the moment.




I wonder...... do German investors have a _*"DAX is tanking!"*_ thread? 

LOL


----------



## Chasero (5 September 2011)

Anyone think stock markets will rally this Friday (or Thursday in the US) after Obama's speech?


----------



## sammy84 (5 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Anyone think stock markets will rally this Friday (or Thursday in the US) after Obama's speech?




What are you expecting him to say/fix?

Fridays generally move the market one way or another. If the market tanks until then one would expect some degree of a relief rally.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (5 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Anyone think stock markets will rally this Friday (or Thursday in the US) after Obama's speech?




If they announce something which the markets like, obviously it will happen. Something like this ought to set off a massive rally - if it does indeed happen:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-feds-plan-rumors-of-news-2011-8


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Anyone think stock markets will rally this Friday (or Thursday in the US) after Obama's speech?




Your long then


----------



## Boggo (5 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> The DAX is very interesting to watch at the moment.




So is the UK, not a pretty sight if you have a tendency to panic


----------



## Muschu (5 September 2011)

Does anyone really "know" ?  There is so much banter, analysis and subtle commentary.

I, for one, do not "know"....


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Well banks are down 8 % in  Europe so that tells you something if you want to take notice.


----------



## Chasero (5 September 2011)

I'm expecting him to drum up some confidence with policies on unemployement and job plans for the U.S.

I am LONG and optimistic!

Problems with Greece will all be sorted by end of September. No worries!


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I'm expecting him to drum up some confidence with policies on unemployement and job plans for the U.S.
> 
> I am LONG and optimistic!
> 
> Problems with Greece will all be sorted by end of September. No worries!




Good for you


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 September 2011)

Negative economic results is the reality. Optimism, pessimism, realism ...


----------



## Chasero (5 September 2011)

I'm expecting the XAO to test lows of 4,000 this week. Then back up to 4,300 and rising on Friday towards next week!

Just gotta hope for some positive data to come out - from anywhere really! Looks like Australian data isn't too bad (apart from the anz jobs report)! Hopefully the eurozone has some good news this September


----------



## LifeChoices (5 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I'm expecting the XAO to test lows of 4,000 this week. Then back up to 4,300 and rising on Friday towards next week!
> 
> Just gotta hope for some positive data to come out - from anywhere really! Looks like Australian data isn't too bad (apart from the anz jobs report)! Hopefully the eurozone has some good news this September




The ABS may be announcing that we are technically in recession on 7 September?

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0


----------



## tech/a (5 September 2011)

Good for you too


----------



## notting (5 September 2011)

It seems we will go through 4100 tomorrow which would indicate that there will most likely be another leg down!  

That US employment chart a page back was pretty interesting.  
It looks like employment in the US *has recovered*!!!! 
It may correct down a little now and then stabilize.  
This basically means the new normal is around 10% unemployment provided there is *no further USl contraction* 

Obama's speeches have always had a decidedly shallow ring to them in my experience
and seem to be becoming more vacuous in the face of the dire reality handed to him.  "Real Change"  - Do people *really* still fall for that?
Obama's speach is just another story for the press to make some mile stone of.

We just need the German voters to look into the eyes of doom and decide that Euroland is a better option.

Surely the the AU is not going to just float over all of what seems to be erupting.

Bank of America must be close to  a screaming buy even for an Ausi. 
Buff liked 5% of it about 15% ago!!  Just have to let it finish falling I suppose.


----------



## Julia (5 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Good for you too





Lots of wishing and hoping on this thread.
A bit of realism might be somewhat more rational.


----------



## Boggo (5 September 2011)

Julia said:


> A bit of realism might be somewhat more rational.




My idea of realism Julia, scary eh 
 (XAO - friday's data)


----------



## Starcraftmazter (5 September 2011)

notting said:


> It seems we will go through 4100 tomorrow which would indicate that there will most likely be another leg down!
> 
> That US employment chart a page back was pretty interesting.
> It looks like employment in the US *has recovered*!!!!
> ...




Mate you have so much optimism, if you distribute it to the global economy we might just have a full recovery by years end


----------



## banco (5 September 2011)

Don't forget the German Constitutional Court rules on the legality of the EU bailouts on Wednesday.  I wouldn't want to have money in the market if they rule that the bailouts are illegal......


----------



## skc (5 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I am LONG and optimistic!




You are long, then optimistic, and you hope for the facts to fall your way. 

What you should do is look at the facts, form an attitude then place your bets. 

You have your thinking in all the wrong order.



Chasero said:


> Problems with Greece will all be sorted by end of September. No worries!




Yes. Greece would default by then and it will no longer be the problem. Too bad that the cancer would have spread to the other PIIGS. 



notting said:


> Bank of America must be close to  a screaming buy even for an Ausi.
> Buff liked 5% of it about 15% ago!!  Just have to let it finish falling I suppose.




Buffet didn't buy BofA common shares, he bought special class preference shares with 6% cumulative interest and seniority over the common shares, with attaching free warrants. I would buy that too. The fact that he DIDN'T buy the common shares tells another story.

I didn't use to dislike Buffet, but when he lied thru his teeth in making that "investment" in BofA... it was pretty despicable.


----------



## WhoToTrust (5 September 2011)

Gold to break 2k in 2 days, whattya reckon?


----------



## WhoToTrust (5 September 2011)

skc said:


> Buffet didn't buy BofA common shares, he bought special class preference shares with 6% cumulative interest and seniority over the common shares, with attaching free warrants. I would buy that too. The fact that he DIDN'T buy the common shares tell another story.




Not like he has a huge vested interest in trying to stop the rot is it.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 September 2011)

.....back to the Title subject...

Overnight euro slump - 

DAX  *-5.28*% 
STOXX 50  *-5.11*% 
FTSE MIB  *-4.83*% 
CAC  *-4.73*% 
FTSE  *-3.58*% 

US DOW futures  *-203*pts

AUS SPI200 futures  *-52*pts

Have a nice day


----------



## Struzball (6 September 2011)

sammy84 said:


> What are you expecting him to say/fix?




Obama To Announce Eurozone Bailout

Would that help?


----------



## Suers (6 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> .....back to the Title subject...
> 
> Overnight euro slump -
> 
> ...




You have a nice day too  it's beautiful outside.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> Obama To Announce Eurozone Bailout
> 
> Would that help?




Obama To Announce Resignation From Presidency

Now, THAT would see a bounce on Wall St...


----------



## notting (6 September 2011)

It's interesting what Euroland thinks of itself when there is no lead from Wall Street.


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2011)

notting said:


> It's interesting what Euroland thinks of itself when there is no lead from Wall Street.




Why?

Its got bigger problems than the US.
Well perhaps not. but they have bankrupt "States" (Countries)
Where as the US is insolvent.


----------



## lenny (6 September 2011)

notting said:


> It's interesting what Euroland thinks of itself when there is no lead from Wall Street.




Yeah looks like the euroland are moving into bear markets, CAC-28%,DAX-30% off its highs with the FTSE no far behind either.

Million dollar question is will we follow.?


----------



## notting (6 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why?
> 
> Its got bigger problems than the US.
> Well perhaps not. but they have bankrupt "States" (Countries)
> Where as the US is insolvent.




True their problems are bigger, especially if Greece is not fullfilling it's agreaments. That means you cannot  trust the Greeks even if a Eurobod is created. What's interesting is how Euroland is still influenced so much by the US even though they are bigger and in more strife.


----------



## notting (6 September 2011)

Hard to fathem why banks are out performing materials after what happened in Euroland last night. What are they expecting an interest rate cut?


----------



## Knobby22 (6 September 2011)

There is no real volume, sp should start rising soon.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 September 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> There is no real volume, sp should start rising soon.



Well spotted.


----------



## skc (6 September 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> There is no real volume, sp should start rising soon.




We should most likely range between now and the rates announcement at 2:30pm.

I think I'd take a nab 'till then.



notting said:


> Hard to fathem why banks are out performing materials after what happened in Euroland last night. What are they expecting an interest rate cut?




A few REITs are also looking stronger than usual so it's not impossible...

It won't be a good sign for the rest of the world, however.

Just look at the sort of signal Brazil sent with their unexpected rate cut.


----------



## Chasero (6 September 2011)

10% chance RBA will cut interest rates?



Heck, even if rates are on hold doubt the XAO will move past 4,000 today.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 September 2011)

Wot?

AOX only down 1%?

We snicker in the direction of Euroland....


----------



## Chasero (6 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Wot?
> 
> AOX only down 1%?
> 
> We snicker in the direction of Euroland....




Everyones waiting for 2:30 it seems..


----------



## vkdirector (6 September 2011)

No change from the RBA


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> There is no real volume, sp should start rising soon.




Thats no demand and the market has come off a bit.
This is really weak.

No reaction as expected to Interest rates.
Already factored.

Mind you at least Aus isnt broke

Only BROKEN-- politically


----------



## Tysonboss1 (6 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Mind you at least Aus isnt broke
> 
> Only BROKEN-- politically




Which ones worse?


----------



## skc (6 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Thats no demand and the market has come off a bit.
> This is really weak.
> 
> No reaction as expected to Interest rates.
> ...




I think there was a faint hope.. sort of the un-written expectation. 

We are now ready to fall a more meaningful percentage commensurate of the European markets.


----------



## notting (6 September 2011)

I was shorting the banks during that drift up over lunch.
It's made me feel much better, generally!
However, US futures are very unreliable after a long weekend.
They could still rally toward the end of the night.
I'll feel more comfortable if we do not tick up at the close and stay below 4100 at the close.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (6 September 2011)

I thought we would have been down more today after the euro bleeding, 

Oh, well there is always tomorrow,


----------



## Chasero (6 September 2011)

Watch shares rally this friday and tank again...

Can't wait!


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2011)

Nice reversal in euroland.

See what the morrow brings.


----------



## Chasero (6 September 2011)

I'm starting to lean more towards health stocks, cochlear and mesoblast have been doing super well..

What I don't understand is how Bloody Huge Profit (BHP) is doing so poorly.

Might top up on COH and BHP if things go really pear shaped.

People holding financial stocks - buckle in for the ride! I'm not a short term trader but they must be making a killing out of these!


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I thought we would have been down more today after the euro bleeding,



Yeah where is the next capitulation.  Bloody market is clinging to their shares like rats to some floating debris.


----------



## Chasero (6 September 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yeah where is the next capitulation.  Bloody market is clinging to their shares like rats to some floating debris.




We processed the news on Monday AND had a bad lead tuesday while the UK market processed it all in one day. XAO sank ~6% over 3-4 days, that's pretty bad.

Doesn't help either when you hear Deutsche bank screaming Lehman Brothers on day of trade.

Anyone seeing a positive lead for the XAO tonight? (Hoping the americans wake up refreshed and optimistic LOL)


----------



## PinguPingu (6 September 2011)

The Swiss have come out swinging... 


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fr...t-euro-franc-floor-2011-09-06?dist=beforebell



> “With immediate effect, [the SNB] will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities,” the SNB said.


----------



## Muschu (6 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I'm starting to lean more towards health stocks, cochlear and mesoblast have been doing super well..
> 
> What I don't understand is how Bloody Huge Profit (BHP) is doing so poorly.
> 
> ...




As I recall BHP touched $20 a few years ago..... Has this ride south finished?


----------



## skc (6 September 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> The Swiss have come out swinging...
> 
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fr...t-euro-franc-floor-2011-09-06?dist=beforebell




And they will fail eventually. You can't defend a currency at all costs. Charging negative interest for deposits however would have been a better strategy.


----------



## notting (6 September 2011)

I think it was 29 not 20 for BHP.

Here's a light read:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44404184


----------



## Boggo (6 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> As I recall BHP touched $20 a few years ago..... Has this ride south finished?




Around the $31 area looks tempting at the moment if the current market sentiment continues.

(click to expand)


----------



## Muschu (7 September 2011)

notting said:


> I think it was 29 not 20 for BHP.
> 
> Here's a light read:
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/44404184




I think BHP hit $20 exactly in November 2008.  At the time I think there was an ASF subscriber saying he would not touch them until they hit the "low teens". I guess he is still waiting.

I have no idea when the SP is heading north but suspect it will not be tomorrow...


----------



## skyQuake (7 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> I think BHP hit $20 exactly in November 2008.  At the time I think there was an ASF subscriber saying he would not touch them until they hit the "low teens". I guess he is still waiting.
> 
> I have no idea when the SP is heading north but suspect it will not be tomorrow...




up 2% atm


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 September 2011)

skc said:


> And they will fail eventually. You can't defend a currency at all costs. Charging negative interest for deposits however would have been a better strategy.




From the article - 



> The Swiss franc plunged dramatically versus the euro and other major rivals Tuesday after the Swiss National Bank took the extraordinary step of setting a floor for the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate at 1.20 francs and *vowed to buy “unlimited quantities” of euros* to defend it.




Nice "boast" there about their unlimited financial resources, eh? Desperate *bluff* statement by a desperate gummint?

Hey, if the state manipulated SNB are implying they have access to an _"unlimited"_ amount of funds with which to purchase _"unlimited quantities"_ of euros, why don't the Swiss go further in the oneupmanship stakes and offer to buy out ALL THE DEBT IN EUROPE - thereby solving the Eurozone Debt Crisis at a single stroke? 

Why dither with their own small fry when they obviously have enough money to buy the planet? ? Hmmm. Surely that would make more $en$e? They want to talk big, let's see them REALLY walk the walk.

LOL.


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 September 2011)

STRONG finish by DOW ("only" down 100pts after climbing back 200) leaves SPI indicating big up leg today.

Here's an interesting take on why so much volatility in the DOW in the final few hours of late...



> *Banks Driving Widest Price Swings in Last Trading Hour Since 2009: Options*
> 
> “There are a lot of reasons why the markets are moving so much these days that don’t necessarily have to do with fundamentals,” Jeremy Wien, who trades Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, derivatives at Peak6 Investments LP, said in an interview. The Chicago-based firm manages more than $1 billion. “Banks have to hedge themselves,” he said. “It can have a big effect.”




and



> *Fewer Market Makers*
> 
> Hedges sway prices more because there are fewer firms making markets, said David Palmer, who manages a volatility portfolio at Hudson Bay Capital Management LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that oversees about $1 billion. U.S. regulators oversee 4,525 brokerage firms, 7.7 percent fewer than the level at the beginning of 2009, according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
> 
> “I don’t know if the gamma effect is the biggest it’s ever been, but I will tell you that natural buyers and sellers of gamma such as market makers seem to be fewer and farther between,” Palmer said. “You have a magnified gamma effect because you have less people who are willing to take a stand. And if there’s a lot of uncertainty in the world, then you’d be crazy to stand in front of that freight train.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-in-last-trading-hour-since-2009-options.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> They want to talk big, let's see them REALLY walk the walk.
> 
> LOL.




Well I guess that's all they have left - rhetoric & hope??

Goodbye Eurozone.......the calm before the storm??


----------



## skc (7 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> From the article -
> 
> Nice "boast" there about their unlimited financial resources, eh? Desperate *bluff* statement by a desperate gummint?
> 
> ...




Well they do have unlimited resource to buy Euros by printing as much Swiss Francs as they wish. They will fail not because the printing press will run out of ink, but when they pump so much liquidity that inflation becomes intolerable, plus the thought of holding onto trillions of Euro crap.

It's one thing to protect your exports by lowering your currency, quite another to buy and hold crap in order to do so.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 September 2011)

skc said:


> It's one thing to protect your exports by lowering your currency, quite another to buy and hold crap in order to do so.




The USA Federal reserve made a few hundred billion in profits buying "Toxic assets" during the gfc, If they end up holding billions in bonds which they bought at half price and europes problem work through, it could turn into a major opportunistic profit centre for them.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> What I don't understand is how Bloody Huge Profit (BHP) is doing so poorly.




Bhp ( as of last years annual report ) only had circa $10 per share in assets.

However obviously people are prepared to pay $40 for those $10 of assets when they are generating a 40% return on those assets and reinvesting the bulk of the profits back into creating more assets that will generate 25% - 40% return.

However, If a big stick did get caught in the spokes of the global economy and commodity prices halved, Bhp return on assets could drop to 15%, and not many people would want to pay $40 for $10 worth of assets that only earn 15%.

But, obviously no one knows the future, we just have opinions. So if the market starts pricing in very low commodity prices and the stick doesn't end up getting caught in the spokes then you may do very well indeed to buy this stock at current prices and just hold.


----------



## Sunder (7 September 2011)

Nice strong open on the ASX today. Respecting support around 4075 and we'll go for another test of resistance at 4300 or so?


----------



## Muschu (7 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> up 2% atm




Well spotted.  Fascinating roller coaster ride.... I'd prefer a walk in the park I think.


----------



## skc (7 September 2011)

Sunder said:


> Nice strong open on the ASX today. Respecting support around 4075 and we'll go for another test of resistance at 4300 or so?




GDP figures at 11:30am. Will 'No recession' be enough to keep the market bouyant for the rest of the day?

Hard to imgaine that's not priced in already...


----------



## investorpaul (7 September 2011)

skc said:


> GDP figures at 11:30am. Will 'No recession' be enough to keep the market bouyant for the rest of the day?
> 
> Hard to imgaine that's not priced in already...




I think the market is pricing in a figure of about 1% (from the commentary I have read). If the figure comes in higher than that then it certainly bodes well for a strong close IMO.


----------



## Logique (7 September 2011)

Fingers crossed on that GDP figure. 

Loving the look of the daily XAO chart, and many individual stock charts as well. So much promise there. Also the US and UK futures have climbed during the morning.

What a market, builds you up, only to knock you down again.


----------



## VSntchr (7 September 2011)

1.2%.
about as expecteed


----------



## investorpaul (7 September 2011)

VSntchr said:


> 1.2%.
> about as expecteed




Good result IMO consensus was closer to 1% from what I had read/heard


----------



## skc (7 September 2011)

VSntchr said:


> 1.2%.
> about as expecteed






investorpaul said:


> Good result IMO consensus was closer to 1% from what I had read/heard




Consensus 0.8% according to Econoday.

http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=449894&cust=global-basic&year=2011#top

Market says "meh".


----------



## investorpaul (7 September 2011)

skc said:


> Consensus 0.8% according to Econoday.
> 
> http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=449894&cust=global-basic&year=2011#top
> 
> Market says "meh".




I just read that the NAB had updated their estimate to 1.3% base on the strength of company reporting

Either way the market doesnt seem to fussed


----------



## Chasero (7 September 2011)

Bought some BHP shares @ 37.95 and MQG shares @ 23.20. (markets love it when investment banks start SLASHING jobs)

Full speed ahead!

Only invested ~5k of play money to add to my smallportfolio, with me luck!

And wow, $300B is a huge number from Obama!


----------



## Chasero (7 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Bhp ( as of last years annual report ) only had circa $10 per share in assets.
> 
> However obviously people are prepared to pay $40 for those $10 of assets when they are generating a 40% return on those assets and reinvesting the bulk of the profits back into creating more assets that will generate 25% - 40% return.
> 
> ...




I dont understand any of that but I bought BHP anyway!!

Sorry - double posted!


----------



## Ice88 (7 September 2011)

Yeah it is rather big.

Honestly giving tax breaks in america I personally think is the wrong move. Using the unemployed as workers to help fix the damage done by Hurricane Irene is certainly a step in the right direction. Lower unemployment, more tax incoming and despite the savings rate that will accompany the employment the increased money spent.

I havn't studied economics in depth but i cant see any real down sides to it besides the cost ofc. But the cost is a inevitable factor, repairs need to be made and using the unemployed is better then contracting a company to do so, unless the company was to hire unemployed people to undertake the task.

In regards to the rest, honestly i think using tax breaks and fiscal spending measures to get relected is irresponsible. There are measures he can take yes, but he should tread very carefully otherwise his spending could cause more problems for his administration down the line.

Hopefully his actual package is more fiscally responsible.

In regards to BHP yeah i jumped on at 36.900, so jumped a bit since then . Wish there hadn't such a delay on buying MQG shares though, jumped on just a little to late .


----------



## lenny (7 September 2011)

The Dows got a nasty bearish flag on the chart.

I hope obama got something good to unveil thursday night or world markets could get a shake up if its negative.


----------



## Chasero (7 September 2011)

Hopefully good news will come out of Europe, who knows!

I was also thinking of buying QBE shares as well but every time I want to hit the buy button a new natural disaster seems to be on the horizon..

I saw the big $300B number in my inbox, and as an investor I think that'll only be positive for the share market (in the short term anyway)


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I dont understand any of that but I bought BHP anyway!!
> 
> Sorry - double posted!




I sent you a Private Message to try and explain it a little better.


----------



## Dutchy3 (7 September 2011)

The way I see it we have two possibilities from here.

Reasonable night in the US + holds up tomorrow too and we move 4200 - 4250 by Friday ... then we stall ... the US breaks down out of its channel and the market heads on down to make new lows taking out 4075 with ease. Goodnight tell your mother.

Else ... we move back to 4300 ish by Tues / Wed next week (The DJIA prepares to breakout of its channel) Followed by a glorious day towards the end of next week and 4300 is taken out.

 My point is that by the end of next week this index will run out of time and its very unlikely to bounce around between 4300 - 4075, and stay stable, for a third occasion. If it does flop about 4250 for more than 3 - 4 days cover longs.


----------



## notting (7 September 2011)

Yeah, after what George Soros and Jim Rogers have been broadcasting lately I'm losing confidence in staying long for too much longer. 
Probably means the markets about to rally!!!
Stopped out of my bank shorts but stuffed one of them up so got burned today and still have it!

Soros - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44419154
Rogers - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44419647

One thing I've noticed about 'ducks' is they tend to circle before they land!!


----------



## Dougs Antiques (8 September 2011)

It looks like being a reasnable day today on the overnight markets it was all posative.
Im still not leaving anything in overnight for atleast another 2 weeks (just watch from the sidelines with day trades on good days)
Heres the data:
  	Nikkei 225 Japan 	8,763.41 	+2.01%
  	Hang Seng Hong Kong 	20,048.00 	+1.71%
  	FTSE 100 England 	5,318.59 	+3.14%
  	DAX Germany 	5,405.53 	+4.07%
US up aswell
Cheers


----------



## skc (8 September 2011)

Dougs Antiques said:


> It looks like being a reasnable day today on the overnight markets it was all posative.
> Im still not leaving anything in overnight for atleast another 2 weeks (just watch from the sidelines with day trades on good days)
> Heres the data:
> Nikkei 225 Japan 	8,763.41 	+2.01%
> ...




Yes and as the old saying goes... The fundamentals haven't changed!

Here's something to note about the Greek 1-year bond. It's yielding 93%?!


----------



## Muschu (8 September 2011)

So what will today bring I wonder?  The SPI 200 futures are up about 40 the DOW futures are up a mere 7.... 
Could we be looking at a modest move up today and then be dependent on the US's reaction to Obama's words?
A good day to do nothing?


----------



## Chasero (8 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> So what will today bring I wonder?  The SPI 200 futures are up about 40 the DOW futures are up a mere 7....
> Could we be looking at a modest move up today and then be dependent on the US's reaction to Obama's words?
> A good day to do nothing?




Modest? I'm expecting a HUGE rally


----------



## skyQuake (8 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> So what will today bring I wonder?  The SPI 200 futures are up about 40 the DOW futures are up a mere 7....
> Could we be looking at a modest move up today and then be dependent on the US's reaction to Obama's words?
> A good day to do nothing?



Dow futs up 7 from US close @ 6am. They've had a pretty huge night!



Chasero said:


> Modest? I'm expecting a HUGE rally



Time to fade!


----------



## nomore4s (8 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Modest? I'm expecting a HUGE rally




Problem is we had our huge rally yesterday. Will be a bit more modest imo, but if Asia goes nuts we will obviously follow.


----------



## nomore4s (8 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Problem is we had our huge rally yesterday. Will be a bit more modest imo, but if Asia goes nuts we will obviously follow.




Pretty weak open so far.


----------



## tech/a (8 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Pretty weak open so far.




DJIA played catchup after long weekend.
Range is yet to play out.
Is it Distribution OR Accumulation.???
But early for bravery---in my opinion--but then
I maybe more cautious than some.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> DJIA played catchup after long weekend.
> Range is yet to play out.
> Is it Distribution OR Accumulation.???
> But early for bravery---in my opinion--but then
> I maybe more cautious than some.




I'm being super cautious. Which in hindsight, has let me down on a few "mental buys", but its easier to buy mentally than in real life (obviously).

Piss poor rally today.

Missed out on a few bargains, but now i will wait for the next crash. Past few weeks have been very helpful for my learning.


----------



## skc (8 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Time to fade!




And how true was that! Down a good 70pts since 9:50am.


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 September 2011)

skc said:


> And how true was that! Down a good 70pts since 9:50am.




Bad August jobs data. Unemployment UP to 5.3% (The number of people employed FELL by 9,700 - compared to average forecast of 10,000 RISE by economists). http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ly-cut-workers-sending-currency-tumbling.html

Blame Gillard & Co. for tanking the ASX


----------



## Danneman (8 September 2011)

I'm a bit curious of these jobless numbers coming out.

According to the age, the total available percentage of the population available to work is supposedly 65.6%, which equates to 13.77 million aussies (21 million and counting).

Now, the total number of employed is 11.43 million. That leaves the number of unemployed to be 2.34 million 
of course they fiddle with the statistics and maybe these 2.34 include temp employment?

What's added & what's not added to this figure? I must be missing something here, as a 17% unemployment rate don't seem right either 

edit: http://www.theage.com.au/business/jobless-rate-jumps-in-august-20110908-1jyp4.html#poll

/Daniel


----------



## Chasero (8 September 2011)

The rally was essentially killed off by the unexpected increase in unemployment of 0.2%.

The markets opened really strong until that news at 11am kicked in.. still expect the XAO to be up 1% by 4pm though, or hoping rather


----------



## skc (8 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> The rally was essentially killed off by the unexpected increase in unemployment of 0.2%.
> 
> The markets opened really strong until that news at 11am kicked in.. still expect the XAO to be up 1% by 4pm though, or hoping rather




Check your watch. The news was released at 11:30am.

From 9:50-11:30 market was already down 35pts. From 11:30 to now it moved down another 35pts. The rally was pretty dead before the employment data.

You can have my house if the market is up 1% at the close... barring a miracle where Martians appear and announce they will bailout Europe AND give every American $2m.

Well... my monopoly house anyway


----------



## Chasero (8 September 2011)

skc said:


> Check your watch. The news was released at 11:30am.
> 
> From 9:50-11:30 market was already down 35pts. From 11:30 to now it moved down another 35pts. The rally was pretty dead before the employment data.
> 
> ...




Yep 11:30 was the time.

Markets opened at around 4190 and at 11:30am it was around 4210. So not sure how you got markets being down by 35 points? It's only at 11:30 that there was a huge drop.


Yep doubt the markets will be up at 4pm but there's always  hope!


----------



## notting (8 September 2011)

One slight difference with this fade is a little weekness may creep into au$ due to employment data. That would make us a little more attractive to International equity investers. Also the Swiss thing could give US$ and on shore US stocks a bit more strength.


----------



## Chasero (8 September 2011)

notting said:


> One slight difference with this fade is a little weekness may creep into au$ due to employment data. That would make us a little more attractive to International equity investers. Also the Swiss thing could give US$ and on shore US stocks a bit more strength.




My money's on Ben Bernanke to hint again at QE 3 tomorrow. It's all a game to keep the markets on its toes. So i doubt the AUD will be dropping that much.

I wonder how Bloomberg came up with the $300b figure, and if this will be identical to the speech. Kind of scary if Obama does nothing LOL


----------



## notting (8 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> My money's on Ben Bernanke to hint again at QE 3 tomorrow.




I hope their not that silly.
People are not hiring, not expanding, not asking banks for loans. 
QEs are just sitting around doing sweet FA which is why they have only had temporary sentimental short lived effects.
I don't think too many hip traders are going to be boyed by another. The signal that rates will be kept at zero for two years means: 
"Come lend, it's free, is just sitting here and there's not going to be QE3" 
QE3 would make it impossible to keep inflation/rates at zip for 2 years and hence be a slight deterent for variable rate - would be borrowers.
Europes the main game. The behaviour of the DAX is hardly signalling stability!


----------



## skc (8 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Yep 11:30 was the time.
> 
> Markets opened at around 4190 and at 11:30am it was around 4210. So not sure how you got markets being down by 35 points? It's only at 11:30 that there was a huge drop.
> 
> ...




I was referring to the the SPI future which opened at 9:15 at the high ~4235. It was ~4200 by 11:30.

The ASX200 is not truely open at 10am because of the staggered auction used by the ASX. At 10:09 when all stocks are open it was ~4214 but there's debate on how the actual opening level should be determined.


----------



## dhukka (8 September 2011)

Danneman said:


> I'm a bit curious of these jobless numbers coming out.
> 
> According to the age, the total available percentage of the population available to work is supposedly 65.6%, which equates to 13.77 million aussies (21 million and counting).
> 
> ...




Unemployment rate = Number of Unemployed (000's) / Total Labour Force (000's)

August Unemployment rate = 636.8 / 12,069.4 = 5.28%


----------



## Danneman (8 September 2011)

dhukka said:


> Unemployment rate = Number of Unemployed (000's) / Total Labour Force (000's)
> 
> August Unemployment rate = 636.8 / 12,069.4 = 5.28%




Ok, I obviously had got the wrong figures... I've always suspected these numbers are fudged. I guess I tend to believe what I want to believe 

Anyway. I read that 65.6% of the population were available to work (i.e not pensioners or kids etc) and that would equate to 14.9 million in the workforce. With 11.43 million actually working the number of "unemployed" would be in excess of 3 million.
I guess, the question should have been. What are the 3.4 million - 636,800 people doing?
Alternatively, the participation rate (65.6%) is calculated on 18.37 million (whatever that figure is). There's something that I'm missing in how the participation rate is calculated. Been scouring through the ABS website without finding much of a clarification on this. Total population is clearly 22.7 Million.

or I could just accept the figures: 636.8 k unemployed out of 12,069 k 

cheers
Daniel


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 September 2011)

Danneman said:


> . What are the 3.4 million - 636,800 people doing?




Smoking cones while their pregnant girlfriend is watching oprah re-runs.


----------



## LostMyShirt (8 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Smoking cones while their pregnant girlfriend is watching oprah re-runs.




Yikes...


----------



## LifeChoices (8 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Smoking cones while their pregnant girlfriend is watching oprah re-runs.




That's bull**** - I sniff glue.


----------



## skc (8 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Smoking cones while their pregnant girlfriend is watching oprah re-runs.




Watching oprah re-runs on that plasma she bought with the baby bonus on her first 2 kids.


----------



## VSntchr (8 September 2011)

They are busy posting on ASF among other forums no doubt


----------



## againsthegrain (8 September 2011)

skc said:


> Watching oprah re-runs on that plasma she bought with the baby bonus on her first 2 kids.




Posting on asf forum all day


----------



## dhukka (8 September 2011)

Danneman said:


> Ok, I obviously had got the wrong figures... I've always suspected these numbers are fudged. I guess I tend to believe what I want to believe
> 
> Anyway. I read that 65.6% of the population were available to work (i.e not pensioners or kids etc) and that would equate to 14.9 million in the workforce. With 11.43 million actually working the number of "unemployed" would be in excess of 3 million.
> I guess, the question should have been. What are the 3.4 million - 636,800 people doing?
> ...




You've misinterpreted what the participation rate is. The participation rate is the percentage of people *who are of working age* that are either employed or unemployed but looking for a job. So you can back out the number of people of working age from the total labour force and the participation rate and you get approx. 18,402.5 mill.


----------



## poverty (8 September 2011)

Danneman said:


> I guess, the question should have been. What are the 3.4 million - 636,800 people doing?




Today I saw:

Buying booze (from me)
Carrying around books with pictures of their next tattoos
Threatening to beat up 15yo maccas staff after work


----------



## Dutchy3 (8 September 2011)

I see our market reacted today in the same manner it did the last two times it bounced recently (green circles). All this means is that the script unfolds and the range bound market drags in commissions. We have 5 - 7 sessions up our sleeves before time expires. So this time next week. Some of the miners are looking quite healthy (mid-caps) and other majors don't look like they want to fall again ... the US futures are flat atm. Indeed if the US does rally strong enough to bust LONG out of its range congestion it will be some feat. So lots of conflicting signals for me atm. Roll on Thurs / Fri next week.


----------



## Danneman (8 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Smoking cones while their pregnant girlfriend is watching oprah re-runs.




ha, ha, ha...
----
yeah. I kind of figured the participation rate is something else, but I couldn't find that 18.4 mil figure on the ABS website and as such had to conclude there must've been some sort of black magic going on, as I thought working age people would've been included in that 65.6% figure. Would've made more sense to quote a participation rate closer to 54% 

Anyway, thanks for your clarification

Cheers
Daniel


----------



## LifeChoices (8 September 2011)

So much optimism - so much disappointment in the market at the moment. The graphs remind me of aging penis. Up one minute down the next.


----------



## vkdirector (8 September 2011)

Best to send them over a pallett of viagra


----------



## LostMyShirt (8 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> So much optimism - so much disappointment in the market at the moment. The graphs remind me of aging penis. Up one minute down the next.
> 
> View attachment 44411




They started off well - checked back in a few hours and saw it slide. Meanwhile, Gold is rallying again.

When will this cycle end? lol...


----------



## Struzball (9 September 2011)

Feels like it will be another 4% drop in Germany tonight.

Is it safe to say Obama can't do sh#t?


----------



## Struzball (9 September 2011)

*Stocks Tumble Worldwide After Obama Speech *http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-09/stocks-tumble-worldwide-after-obama-speech.html

I had to laugh at the headline, poor old Obama.  I'd feel terrible if I gave a speech which caused worldwide stocks to tumble.


----------



## skc (9 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> Feels like it will be another 4% drop in Germany tonight.
> 
> Is it safe to say Obama can't do sh#t?




Obama is as good a speaker as George Bush was comical in many of his Bushisms.

I like this Bloomberg headline.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-09/*stocks-tumble-worldwide-after-obama-speech.html*


----------



## Uncle Festivus (10 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Standing still is not a decline...the uncomfortable will sell and the comfortable will exchange their money for the holdings of the weak...next Fridays US close will be higher than this Fridays close.




Perhaps it's _all_ about fundamentals now? ASX futures down 90 for Monday. Does anyone actually invest anymore? Anyone _still_ long?


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> *Feels like it will be another 4% drop in Germany tonight.*
> 
> Is it safe to say Obama can't do sh#t?




Well done!

_You win a free holiday to Greece!!!_

...unfortunately, the travel company involved in this offer went bust last night, so we cannot confirm your booking... 

LOL


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Perhaps it's _all_ about fundamentals now? ASX futures down 90 for Monday. Does anyone actually *invest* anymore? Anyone _still_ long?
> 
> View attachment 44424




"Investors" is THE most overused word by the news media when it comes to describing POSITIVE stock market activity, eg: "Stocks soared last night as *investors* bet heavily on Obama's speech".

"INVESTORS" has a positive "ring" to it.

On the other hand, have you noted that most heavy falls are caused by *short sellers & speculators*.

"SHORT SELLERS" & "SPECULATORS" are obviously being portrayed as the bad guys?

Oh dear. Obama has lost his Ring Of Confidence, it seems.

LOL


----------



## Bill M (10 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Does anyone actually invest anymore? Anyone _still_ long?




I would say most Aussies industry Super funds are still long. I myself live off the dividends from my portfolio and I am "long" and am currently adding to it as the market drops. I need the tax paid dividends and the last thing I would do is sell out at these low prices and put it into cash. Putting into cash for me would mean less income and paying income tax on my interest, no thanks.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> Feels like it will be another 4% drop in Germany tonight.
> 
> Is it safe to say Obama can't do sh#t?




Good call, I'm impressed. Can you also predict winning lotto numbers? I could do with a big win.


----------



## Dougs Antiques (10 September 2011)

Obama's 17 tax breaks for small business: Big whoop!
_"It's nice that you announce these things, but the question is how many actually make a difference," said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist with the National Federation of Independent Business. "If I give you this cash gift in some form through all these tax credits, why would you suddenly desire to go hire somebody?"_

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/08/smallbusiness/jobs_tax_credits/index.htm?iid=EAL

Good luck on Monday Ladies and Gentlemen im at 100% cash


----------



## TheAbyss (10 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> September will definitely be an interesting month, probably not as brutal as August.
> 
> Can't wait! Everyone seems to be holding their breath for Obama's speech as much as they were with Bernanke's speech.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...o-be-very-bold-in-jobs-address-next-week.html




Care to rethink the above now? The start to September has been brutal, US markets are down more than the whole of August. 

Moment of clarity for me was last wednesday when i woke up thinking that the reality of CG tax would be preferable to living with my fear that the markets are going to tank badly. I have officialy joined the 100% cash as of last thursday thankfully (albeit a little late) and will stick with day trades for the foreseeable future.

Targets for some bellweathers which when hit i will consider longer term trades. I should of listened ages ago sadly.

BHP around $20
Rio around $23
Wbc $14
CBA $24


----------



## Dutchy3 (10 September 2011)

Yes looks like another lunge down for the US is probable. Broke down through short term support ... Interestingly our futures are at 4106 which is not quite a trend line break down ... futures are flighty creatures however ...


----------



## IFocus (10 September 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> Care to rethink the above now? The start to September has been brutal, US markets are down more than the whole of August.
> 
> Moment of clarity for me was last wednesday when i woke up thinking that the reality of CG tax would be preferable to living with my fear that the markets are going to tank badly. I have officialy joined the 100% cash as of last thursday thankfully (albeit a little late) and will stick with day trades for the foreseeable future.
> 
> ...





No WPL there Abyss?


----------



## Calliope (10 September 2011)

The conventional wisdom says to hang in there because the market always recovers. However with another GFC looming so hard on the heels of the last one without many tangible signs of recovery to previous levels it would be foolish to assume that recovery is inevitable.

Read Marcus Hadley's thoughts on this fantasy.



> *Counting on the 'long term' is monumentally stupid*
> September 10, 2011
> There are three popular investment approaches that don't work in this market. They are the Plodder (your standard 20-stock ''moron portfolio'' investor), the income investor and the value investor. Why don't they work? Because all of them hold on to the financial advice industry's third-most popular tenet, that ''you can't time the market''.
> 
> Armed with that ignorance these three investor styles are going to go into another potential GFC completely unarmed and are once again going to take it right on the nose because when the market starts to fall, as it is now, they are going to do nothing, they are simply going to sit there quoting the standard share market idioms that ''it'll be all right in the end'', that ''the share market always goes up'' and that ''you can't time the market''.




I am 100% liquid, and got out relatively unscathed The signs have been obvious for some time.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/countin...ally-stupid-20110909-1k1nt.html#ixzz1XVPAZEnr


----------



## tech/a (10 September 2011)

My longterm view is this

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

ARE the charged nuclear device in the financial world.
If say GREECE doesn't pay it's debt then those holding the debt will be called to make good the debt.----that's how Banks go broke---super quickly.

There are credit default swaps on most anything with a risk of default
From Mortgages to Govt debt.
It's so highly leveraged that there is 100s of Trillions covered 100s of times above any asset backing.

THE LOW AT 3100 IS IN
Govts now understand the risk of financial armegedon if a serious default occurs.
The collapse is like falling dominos
The task now is to wind the swaps down.
This will take years and in the meantime there will be swings between 3100 to 5000
Until this risk is gone.
It is very real and required World co operation to stem the default crisis in the US mortgage market.

I'm not expecting a long term up trend anytime in the next 3 yrs
Much of what we've had over the last 3 yrs!


----------



## Boggo (10 September 2011)

I watched a bit of 'The Finance Corner' on ABC 24 this morning, I missed the start of it but caught the bit where a financial 'planner' was giving advice on what people should be doing in the current market.

His comment was that people should stay in the market and not worry as the market has ups and downs, he then went on to say "anyone selling out now is just realising a capital loss".

Good advice eh


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 September 2011)

Boggo said:


> I watched a bit of 'The Finance Corner' on ABC 24 this morning, I missed the start of it but caught the bit where a financial 'planner' was giving advice on what people should be doing in the current market.
> 
> His comment was that people should stay in the market and not worry as the market has ups and downs, he then went on to say "anyone selling out now is just realising a capital loss".
> 
> Good advice eh




Financial planners are the modern version of priests and parsons.

If you sin you go to hell.

If you sell you make a capital loss.

At least financial planners pay tax.

gg


----------



## Tysonboss1 (10 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Does anyone actually invest anymore? Anyone _still_ long?
> 
> View attachment 44424




offcourse, always.


----------



## satanoperca (10 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> I'm not expecting a long term up trend anytime in the next 3 yrs
> Much of what we've had over the last 3 yrs!




hmmmmmm, is that 3 years or 30 years. Going to take a long time to shake all those credit default swaps from the trees. 

Ciao


----------



## LifeChoices (10 September 2011)

I hope we see a good rise in gold and silver this week. 

If gold breaks 2K and silver breaks 50, i'm going to buy me a lobster for lunch.


----------



## Struzball (10 September 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Can you also predict winning lotto numbers? I could do with a big win.




If only the same lotto numbers came up night after night


----------



## Boggo (10 September 2011)

This is an extract from an email I received from Elliott Wave International, interesting...

_Wall Street and the money-management industry stay in business based on the assumption that "stocks are a good investment." They know the greatest threat they face is for most investors to reject that assumption.

That's why Wall Street "counterattacked" on all fronts as the August market declines unfolded. They enlisted willing help from the media. Going forward, there's no limit to what the industry will spend to make the public stick with the "stocks are a good investment" assumption._


----------



## LostMyShirt (10 September 2011)

Was the complete article doom and gloom or did they actually have a productive alternative in their view that _is_ a good investment - or is this more con-theory?


----------



## banco (10 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Was the complete article doom and gloom or did they actually have a productive alternative in their view that _is_ a good investment - or is this more con-theory?




"Con-theory" would be confidently telling people that as long as they hold long term they will be fine (even if they are retiring in the next 10 years).


----------



## Boggo (10 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Was the complete article doom and gloom or did they actually have a productive alternative in their view that _is_ a good investment - or is this more con-theory?




I don't subscribe to their detailed reports but they have been criticised for having a negative view of the market.

The Bob Prechter basic theory is to recognise when to get out and stay out regardless of what the mass media/financial guru's are telling you, I don't believe that he is providing an alternative investment, just don't give back what you have gained with your current one.

To me the theory is commonsense, ie, stand aside when the market is falling.

The simple concept is that if a stock falls from $10 to $5 it has lost 50% of its value, but to get back to $10 requires a 100% increase in value.
Why lose the 50% ?


----------



## Julia (10 September 2011)

Boggo said:


> The Bob Prechter basic theory is to recognise when to get out and stay out regardless of what the mass media/financial guru's are telling you, I don't believe that he is providing an alternative investment, just don't give back what you have gained with your current one.
> 
> To me the theory is commonsense, ie, stand aside when the market is falling.
> 
> ...



Good summary.  I totally agree.

I can understand the difficulty, however, for those who haven't exited while their profits were intact and would now be facing significant losses if they sold.

Those losses could be double in a few months time, however.


----------



## tech/a (10 September 2011)

Julia said:


> Good summary.  I totally agree.
> 
> I can understand the difficulty, however, for those who haven't exited while their profits were intact and would now be facing significant losses if they sold.
> 
> Those losses could be double in a few months time, however.




They should learn how to hedge
The easiest is to short an index if Europe is weaker than Aus then short Dax or FTSE.
Take a longer view.
Roughly $ 50,000 worth of stock in one FTSE contract.

You can also sell part of your portfolio


----------



## LostMyShirt (10 September 2011)

I do agree - now I understand what is meant.

I would say it comes down to the experience and skill of the trader, in terms of entry/exit.


----------



## TheAbyss (10 September 2011)

IFocus said:


> No WPL there Abyss?




I didnt quote WPL due to its SP suffering badly due to the cost overuns atm so hardly a guide for broader market sentiment.

FWIW i would say mid $26 but i wouldnt use this one as a guide or this upcoming market fall (which may not even happen).


----------



## Boggo (10 September 2011)

Julia said:


> I can understand the difficulty, however, for those who haven't exited while their profits were intact and would now be facing significant losses if they sold.
> 
> Those losses could be double in a few months time, however.




Yes, an awkward situation Julia and as you say the risk is that it could get worse.

The thing that most of us keep banging on about is 'Do not get yourself in this situation in the first place'.

I gave back for the very same reason years ago, won't be getting caught like that again.
My only holding at the moment is PRR and that is on a short leash.


----------



## LifeChoices (10 September 2011)

On Monday if the ASX is capitulating, like it did on Aug 9 - as I'm expecting it will - I'll be looking at picking up some bargains for the inevitable dead cat bounce. TVN, BHP, FGE, DTM, MRM spring to mind.

I'm hoping to see some proper capitulation though, big selling, big volumes - not that limp rubbish trading we saw 22 Aug or 6 Sept.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> On Monday if the ASX is capitulating, like it did on Aug 9 - as I'm expecting it will - I'll be looking at picking up some bargains for the inevitable dead cat bounce. TVN, BHP, FGE, DTM, MRM spring to mind.
> 
> I'm hoping to see some proper capitulation though, big selling, big volumes - not that limp rubbish trading we saw 22 Aug or 6 Sept.




The big volumes will come on Tuesday when the next round of margin loan calls kick into the sell down. How brave do you feel that it will definitely bounce?


----------



## LifeChoices (10 September 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The big volumes will come on Tuesday when the next round of margin loan calls kick into the sell down. How brave do you feel that it will definitely bounce?




Yes, you are right, could be Tuesday. If there is big selling, big volumes and big losses, I'm sure there will be a bounce mid week. The trick is to sell at that point - before the next round of bad news comes. Trading during GFC 2 hasn't been that great for my health, but it's been kind of fun and I've managed to turn over a small profit during the past few months. I'm just really hoping silver/gold stay flavour of the month as that's whats saved me from copping a real hiding.

During the first GFC, I just layed back and thought of England while getting raped in all orifices - not going there again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (11 September 2011)

It's fairly simple really. What has made the markets go up the last few years against what has made the markets go down?

Markets up - QE1 + QE2 = commensurate jump in most things, but overall no better than when first started plus a shipload more debt.

Markets down - debt bubbles bursting, followed by credit/debt contagion.

Is the situation any better = no.

Does it look like getting any better based on the available data = no (worse if anything??).

= Logic diagram end block saying 'Stay out of market' ie don't try to catch falling knives.

The China bubble near stall speed - it's just the start of GFC2.......cash before crash.

PS the US would have to 'create' another 18 MILLION jobs just to be back at the same level of employment as they were back in 2000!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (11 September 2011)

To clarify, to get to a civilian employment-to-population ratio equal to that in 2000.

For what lies ahead, it is not a matter of pain or no pain, but of how much pain and how is it shared - fully invested and riding it to the bottom or keeping your ammo dry?


----------



## LostMyShirt (11 September 2011)

I'm hearing a lot of these "GFC2" theories. They make sense - but what has been troubling me the most is that no suggestions or plans have been made to avoid such a collapse. What I mean is, it seems like an unavoidable inevidablilty...


----------



## banco (11 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I'm hearing a lot of these "GFC2" theories. They make sense - but what has been troubling me the most is that no suggestions or plans have been made to avoid such a collapse. What I mean is, it seems like an unavoidable inevidablilty...




I don't think anyone's found a viable solution to the Euro problem that doesn't involve a lot of short term pain (and that's leaving aside other problems in the world economy).


----------



## LostMyShirt (11 September 2011)

Well that is the picture that is being painted for me in regards to this Debt Crisis etc. Also hearing a lot of "go back to cash" advice. I am not heding such advice personally I feel that the Gold index would be thriving due to currency and debt uncertainties, so that is where I've parked my money.


----------



## Aussiejeff (11 September 2011)

banco said:


> I don't think anyone's found a viable solution to the Euro problem that doesn't involve a lot of short term pain (and that's leaving aside other problems in the world economy).




It's the type of pain that really matters here.

To make meaningful, long term, positive changes to the "world order of things" would require a level of POLITICAL PAIN unimaginable to the vast majority of pollies. Therein lies the conundrum.

Many pollies would have to sacrifice their positions of power & influence in order to set "things" on a better, more sustainable course. Currently, I see little evidence of world leaders willing to sacrifice their personal positions AND the positions of their parties if need be for the betterment of the hoipoloi. 

Tell me I'm wrong.....


----------



## LostMyShirt (11 September 2011)

It is no doubt that the comfort of a position sets priorities of themselves first before others, in the representatives mind; and for the most part, it's true. I'd say there _are_ die hards in the political system willing to make their sacrifice for the greater good, but they are a very small minority amongst the rest. Then again, that may just be my wishful thinking, or perhaps my confidence in those in power.


----------



## Chasero (11 September 2011)

So.. I'm predicting Monday huge down day for XAO, -2.1%.

Then no news of Greek default when world markets have their Monday. So Tuesday rally?

*shrug* Timing this market is impossible.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ument&src=idp&emcontent_asx_financial-markets

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...arck-Gre-pd20110910-LJVLU?OpenDocument&src=mp


----------



## banco (11 September 2011)

A 2%  drop isn't even a "huge down day" anymore it's just another day at the office.


----------



## satanoperca (11 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> So.. I'm predicting Monday huge down day for XAO, -2.1%.
> 
> Then no news of Greek default when world markets have their Monday. So Tuesday rally?




Just Monday for falls, hmmmmm. Wouldn't count on that bounce and if it happens all the better to add to existing shorts.

The writing is on the wall, it is just missing the dates.

Greece will default and the GFC will look like happy times. 

I for one do not see 3100 as some sort of support level this time around. What got us there, one company in one country. The game has got bigger, now we are looking at whole countries. 

Glad I took up trading a few years ago, these are the times that I thrive in. 

Let the panic begin and those that enter the arena will either be gladators or dead.

Cheers


----------



## Chasero (11 September 2011)

The markets are in meltdown mode!

Why can't the US and Greece just use Australia's tax system.

They charge too little tax and this is where it gets them! Huge mountains of debt! Propose taxes on the extremely wealthy!!


----------



## Muschu (11 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> So.. I'm predicting Monday huge down day for XAO, -2.1%.
> 
> Then no news of Greek default when world markets have their Monday. So Tuesday rally?.................




Just curious as to how you arrived at such a recise figure as 2.1%?


----------



## RandR (11 September 2011)

All the 'end of days' stuff on this thread is great.

People talking about asx 200 at 3100, If it gets there im going to be buying. Wont need to go far, will just load up on BHP and Comm Bank. **** if BHP hits the 20's im going to seriously consider averaging in.

Greece is farked, this has been well known for awhile, its not like anyone is going to get caught with there pants down, everyone knows who's holding greek bonds. We know there is a risk that contagion can spread through europe, we know that Europe has some pretty significant structural problems with the Euro. Are people losing sight of the fact were in Australia ? 

I can understand there are people here that might be much older, and more protective of there capital being close to retirement. But im 23, the way people are talking I think this could be the opportunity of a lifetime for me to load up and go long when the **** hits the fan.


----------



## Chasero (11 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> Just curious as to how you arrived at such a recise figure as 2.1%?




Pure guesswork based on trends from overseas markets and SPI 200 

If Greek DOES default, which is looking more and more likely, is the stock market never going to recover for years?


----------



## MartinB (11 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> The markets are in meltdown mode!
> 
> Why can't the US and Greece just use Australia's tax system.
> 
> They charge too little tax and this is where it gets them! Huge mountains of debt! Propose taxes on the extremely wealthy!!




Looks like the Greek government are listening to you mate.

http://mobile.forbes.com/device/art...ness-eu-greece-financial-crisis_8671203.html?


----------



## WhoToTrust (12 September 2011)

Euro banks 50:1 leverage, wow.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-09/european-bankers-hooked-on-gambling-will-need-capital-intervention-view.html


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 September 2011)

Overnight ME trading - 







> Egypt’s biggest publicly traded builder, lost 1.7 percent. The TA-25 Index slumped 3.6 percent to 1,024.93, the lowest since November 2009, at the 4:30 p.m. close in Tel Aviv. The EGX 30 Index (EGX30) declined 1.3 percent, the most since Aug. 21. In the Persian Gulf, the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index (BGCC200) declined 0.2 percent.
> 
> Israeli stocks declined after “overseas markets fell over the weekend and also because of geopolitical events such as what happened in Egypt,” Terence Klingman, head of research at Meitav Brokerage in Tel Aviv, said by telephone. “People are preferring to buy government bonds and stay away from equities.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-europe-debt-crisis-cairo-embassy-attack.html

Should be good for a dead cat *boing*?


----------



## skc (12 September 2011)

RandR said:


> All the 'end of days' stuff on this thread is great.
> 
> People talking about asx 200 at 3100, If it gets there im going to be buying. Wont need to go far, will just load up on BHP and Comm Bank. **** if BHP hits the 20's im going to seriously consider averaging in.
> 
> ...




The credit market has priced in a Greek default but the equity market evidently hasn't. The problem with a default isn't just the slashing of book value for those who hold Greek bonds... it is the CDS impact which are not disclosed. Those could blow up at places no body knows and that fear could drive the market way down.


----------



## Muschu (12 September 2011)

I know it's early but the indicative prices on commsec don't appear to be as far down as I thought they would be -- banks excepted perhaps.


----------



## RandR (12 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> I know it's early but the indicative prices on commsec don't appear to be as far down as I thought they would be -- banks excepted perhaps.




I think you'll have to wait until europe 'officialy' implodes and greece forfeits before the fire sales truly begin. Until that happens this is just negative sentiment.


----------



## TheAbyss (12 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> I know it's early but the indicative prices on commsec don't appear to be as far down as I thought they would be -- banks excepted perhaps.




Nice qualifier "I know its early" XJO down 2.8% atm.

What do people think of the following as a group of stocks that may bounce quicker than others on updays while we go through lower highs, lower lows? Not saying keep them, just that they are likely to go up on the bounces.

LYC.AX	LYNAS FPO
TLS.AX	TELSTRA FPO
TTS.AX	TATTS GRP FPO
FMG.AX	FORTESCUE FPO
DXS.AX	DEXUS PROP STAPLED
FXJ.AX	FAIRFAX FPO
PLA.AX	PLAT AUST FPO
RSG.AX	RESOLUTE FPO
IGR.AX	INTEGRA FPO
MAP.AX	MACQUARIE AIRPORT
IOF.AX	INVESTA STAPLED
AIO.AX	ASCIANO FPO
FGL.AX	FOSTERS FPO
BDR.AX	BEADELL FPO
GFF.AX	GOODMAN FPO
RED.AX	RED 5 LTD FPO
NCM.AX      Newcrest


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

WOW!

Brutal start to the week!

Small or large dead cat bounce tomorrow?

I have my doubts on a relief rally, so I'm not taking any chances.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 September 2011)

Greece is old news - it's gone higher up the food chain now to Italy & France. And Germany has realised it has to start looking after it's own.

Interesting to know the ages of posters here - those most bullish trying to time the bounces - in your 20's coz you haven't seen a real bear market let alone gone through a recession? 
Or old enough to have been there and done that and to know that doing nothing is sometimes still going forward?

Short the rallies more like it.


----------



## VSntchr (12 September 2011)

The markets have been holding ground on the upcoming speeches of bernanke and obama..but now that they have all come and passed...where to next! 

Down down, prices are......


----------



## Struzball (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> WOW!
> 
> Brutal start to the week!
> 
> ...




My guess is no bounce tomorrow.  
Continual steady fall over the next week(s), large bounce after that, but not bouncing higher than august 8 lows (4050).

I don't have much to back that up, anything could happen.


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

I feel sorry for all the COH shareholders out there! Brutal day just went into overdrive!

I almost bought COH a while back too! 

Time to go back to 100% cash till September 20 comes I think.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ailures-pd20110912-LLUS6?OpenDocument&src=hp1


----------



## LostMyShirt (12 September 2011)

I honestly thought we would see Gold rally today - but I guess that isn't the case...


----------



## McCoy Pauley (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I feel sorry for all the COH shareholders out there! Brutal day just went into overdrive!
> 
> I almost bought COH a while back too!
> 
> ...




As I posted to the COH thread, I believe this is the first time in COH's history that they've issued a product recall.  Calls to mind Buffett's maxim of a reputation being built over a life-time can be lost in five minutes.


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

I just bought some COH shares @ $56.00...

I'm always optimistic.. LOL

I was considering buying them @ $68 a while ago so might as well jump on board now..

WOW, the share plunge was a huge overreaction! This is the only good thing to come out of my portfolio all week!!

Thankfully I sold out of the toxic MQG, hopefully COH will claw me back some gains


----------



## skc (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I just bought some COH shares @ $56.00...
> 
> I'm always optimistic.. LOL
> 
> I was considering buying them @ $68 a while ago so might as well jump on board now..




Lol. I suspect you didn't know they had a product recall when you thought about buying them at $68?

And how did you assess the financial impact, since the company hasn't yet announce it?

Oh I see, you were just gambling...


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

skc said:


> Lol. I suspect you didn't know they had a product recall when you thought about buying them at $68?
> 
> And how did you assess the financial impact, since the company hasn't yet announce it?
> 
> Oh I see, you were just gambling...




Of course not. Like anyone would know about the product recall. Insider trading much?

It's not gambling when the general response to a HUGE dive is historically a bounce back up. 

DYOR. I sold out of COH just now @ $57.7. Bounce back wasn't as strong as I hoped. Made a tiny sum at least.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Of course not. Like anyone would know about the product recall. Insider trading much?
> 
> It's not gambling when the general response to a HUGE dive is historically a bounce back up.
> 
> DYOR.




IMO, it's a gamble to buy shares in COH today when the company cannot advise the financial impact of the recall. I've not had the time this morning to look up the breakdown of the recalled product line compared to other products sold by COH, but unless you've done even that little amount of research, you've just loaded up on black #23, IMO.


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> IMO, it's a gamble to buy shares in COH today when the company cannot advise the financial impact of the recall. I've not had the time this morning to look up the breakdown of the recalled product line compared to other products sold by COH, but unless you've done even that little amount of research, you've just loaded up on black #23, IMO.




That's why you close your positions for the day. It's a huge gamble to hold COH not knowing the future impact of the recall on its financials.

Although if you study trends, the response to BAD news leading to a huge dive in a company's share price most always leads to a short rally. 

Get in at the low (i was hoping to catch $53-54). 

Get out when it peaks. Close your positions.


----------



## Calliope (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> It's not gambling when the general response to a HUGE dive is historically a bounce back up.




So you *were gambling *on a big bounce, and then you lost your nerve.


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

Calliope said:


> So you *were gambling *on a big bounce, and then you lost your nerve.




Well then, everyone's just arguing semantics aren't we?

If you invest/trade in the stock market, of course you are GAMBLING in a sense.

Obviously the gamble is backed up by research, knowledge of how the share market works or study of trends.

Or else why would you place money in if the ODDS aren't in your favour? All traders know there is a gamble on every trade. Obviously that's why you have your stop losses in place.

I didn't lose my nerve. I reached my stop loss so I closed the deal for the day. All share traders have an investment strategy, or else why else would you continue trading if you continue to "gamble"? That doesn't make sense.

Seems like people here get extremely negative when people post profits in a general bear market.


----------



## Struzball (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I almost bought COH a while back too!
> 
> Time to go back to 100% cash till September 20 comes I think.






Chasero said:


> I just bought some COH shares @ $56.00...
> 
> I'm always optimistic.. LOL




Amazing.. took all of 38 minutes to change your strategy



Chasero said:


> Of course not. Like anyone would know about the product recall. Insider trading much?




I believe what skc was alerting to you, was that when you considered buying @ $68, you had not factored in a product recall.
So just because the price is lower than $68 today, doesn't make it a bargain, there is just new information.



Chasero said:


> It's not gambling when the general response to a HUGE dive is historically a bounce back up.




Generally when you spin a roulette wheel and it comes up red, it'll be followed by black.
Is it not gambling to bet on that outcome?


----------



## Chasero (12 September 2011)

Struzball said:


> Amazing.. took all of 38 minutes to change your strategy
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I will trade the market if I see a trend, as the market is ALWAYS right.

When I was considering purchasing it @ $68, that was based on my own research. No one could have predicted what happened to COH today. And obviously I would've gotten burnt if I bought it at this price. 

I didn't say just because it's lower it must be a bargain. I reacted to the new information, watched the trend and after I've hit my stop loss I got out as the trend was hitting a resistance. (at $57.90)

Trend trading has always worked for me in the past, so why not practise it given another opportunity? It IS gambling if you view it that way. I don't consider it "gambling" as much because the odds are not 50:50.

If you have a 90% chance to make a profit, would you still consider it gambling? So it seems for the past few years, I have "gambled" on the stock market and have come out positive. I must be such a great "gambler".

That's why I don't like the term gamble. But it is what it is. You are gambling with the ODDs in your favour. If you spin a roulette wheel the odds aren't in your favour are they? That's why I don't see it as the same thing.


----------



## Struzball (12 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I will trade the market if I see a trend, as the market is ALWAYS right.
> 
> When I was considering purchasing it @ $68, that was based on my own research. No one could have predicted what happened to COH today. And obviously I would've gotten burnt if I bought it at this price.
> 
> ...




Fair enough.


----------



## LostMyShirt (12 September 2011)

Wow - that was the fastest condeding of a debate I've ever seen, rofl.


----------



## Struzball (12 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Wow - that was the fastest condeding of a debate I've ever seen, rofl.




I'm not too sure we actually disagreed


----------



## lenny (12 September 2011)

Markets not looking good technically.

Red night tonight on DOW would see it break down out a bearish flag and looking at making a lower low.

With the XJO breaking support today 4070 we will probably test AUG 9th low if the yanks put in a bad night.

If markets do make a lower low it could spark some more panic selling, will the big boys buy up or head for the exits.


----------



## LostMyShirt (12 September 2011)

Red on the Dow tonight for sure - Euroland is tankin...


----------



## LifeChoices (12 September 2011)

I went on a bit of a buying spree this arvo. Didn't really get exactly what I was after, but  feel ok with what I ended up with. I bought equal parts of EGO, MIN and BHP. I hope to turn over some of my stock on the bounce - if there is one. Otherwise I'll just sit it out and wait for my gold and silver stocks to make me rich beyond my wildest dreams.

If all else fails I've still got close to 2K and am heading to the U.S. in October where I'll buy boxes  of these - and will get rich that way - pretty cool eh!


----------



## LostMyShirt (12 September 2011)

Put me down for 5000


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2011)

Nothing has changed---- lots of discussion---- but nothings changed




tech/a said:


> Thats no demand and the market has come off a bit.
> This is really weak.
> 
> No reaction as expected to Interest rates.
> ...






tech/a said:


> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rash-could-hit-within-weeks-warn-bankers.html
> 
> View attachment 44218
> 
> ...






tech/a said:


> Why is everything seen as a panick
> Why isnt it an astute reaction to a serious issue?






skc said:


> View attachment 44123


----------



## Dutchy3 (12 September 2011)

How is it we clearly tanked out on the index and yet virtually all the bigger Oz stocks failed to make new lows?  I see divergence ... Coupled with that crazy drop off day in August so near term support ... Not advocating any long positions (I bailed on RSG at the close ... so now flat). The DJIA futures do look sick but again the main players in the US are not making new lows at the same time. If I was to go short (and Im not going to) the index and the stocks need to reconcile, and from what I can see they do not.
Only thing certain for me is that whiplash will be the main complaint in the next little period.


----------



## skc (12 September 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> Nice qualifier "I know its early" XJO down 2.8% atm.
> 
> What do people think of the following as a group of stocks that may bounce quicker than others on updays while we go through lower highs, lower lows? Not saying keep them, just that they are likely to go up on the bounces.
> 
> ...




IMO the stocks that will bounce are the high(er) quality ones. GFF, PLA and FXJ are dogs for all seasons and will probably lag in any bounce. The gold shares (RSG, NCM, BDR, RED, IGR) haven't really fallen so not really bounce candidates either. FGL, TTS and TLS are pretty steady usually so again not great bounce candidates. DXS, MAP, IOF are more related to the interest rate cycle and won't have huge bounces compared to some.

That leaves FMG, LYC and AIO on your list as decent bounce opportunities. But if you just want to trade a bounce then XJO is probably as good an instrument as individual shares.



tech/a said:


> Nothing has changed---- lots of discussion---- but nothings changed




Something has changed... we are getting closer to D-day. The Germans are starting to think that they can let Greece fail. They are probably still trying to determine the extent of the short term pain before they pull it.


----------



## skc (12 September 2011)

Dutchy3 said:


> How is it we clearly tanked out on the index and yet virtually all the bigger Oz stocks failed to make new lows?  I see divergence ... Coupled with that crazy drop off day in August so near term support ... Not advocating any long positions (I bailed on RSG at the close ... so now flat). The DJIA futures do look sick but again the main players in the US are not making new lows at the same time. If I was to go short (and Im not going to) the index and the stocks need to reconcile, and from what I can see they do not.
> Only thing certain for me is that whiplash will be the main complaint in the next little period.




The index hasn't made new lows. The index is made up of stocks so by definition they must and do reconcile!


----------



## tech/a (12 September 2011)

Let me rephrase my statement.

Nothing has changed from my original Elliott Analysis.
The initial count is still valid.
Alternatives haven't played out.


----------



## satanoperca (12 September 2011)

I will go against the current and call for a green day, abiet just, on the XAO tomorrow.

Could be wrong but then again, when everyone tells you the world is ending, the majority are often wrong.

Happy trading.


----------



## nulla nulla (13 September 2011)

No doubt there will be some "panic" buying this morning, creating a bounce for those wanting to get out.


----------



## skc (13 September 2011)

satanoperca said:


> I will go against the current and call for a green day, abiet just, on the XAO tomorrow.
> 
> Could be wrong but then again, when everyone tells you the world is ending, the majority are often wrong.
> 
> Happy trading.




Good call. The US market these days has a tendency to creep up after Europe's close. Apparently now the Chinese will bail out Italy... what's next, Ferraris rebadged as Great Wall?


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 September 2011)

skc said:


> Good call. The US market these days has a tendency to creep up after Europe's close. *Apparently now the Chinese will bail out Italy... what's next, Ferraris rebadged as Great Wall?*




Apparently not just Italy but also Greece..so much for China wanting to sit out the Euro-mess and forge their own version of Nirvana. Now it appears they have NO CHOICE but to get their hands grubby with filthy Euro lucre.

Just one inevitable step closer to the endgame IMO. The Chinese have discovered there is no place to hide on this planet.

Oh well, their tardy intervention & market manipulation should enable some beer and skittles before the Big Bang somewhere down the track...

Let's party!


----------



## satanoperca (13 September 2011)

Shorts off one day shorts on the next.

Glad I live in Melbourne and are used to changes in the weather. lol

happy trading


----------



## Struzball (13 September 2011)

skc said:


> Good call. The US market these days has a tendency to creep up after Europe's close. Apparently now the Chinese will bail out Italy... what's next, Ferraris rebadged as Great Wall?




Whilst the USA might think China bailing out Europe is a good thing, Europe sure as hell don't.  FTSE and DAX not looking good atm. 

All ords were pretty uninspiring today.


----------



## satanoperca (13 September 2011)

Calling another green day tomorrow. Just fantastic how so many people get it wrong so often including myself.

Happy trading.


----------



## Muschu (13 September 2011)

satanoperca said:


> Calling another green day tomorrow. Just fantastic how so many people get it wrong so often including myself.
> 
> Happy trading.




I get it wrong too... A special skill!  But forget tomorrow and try a really long time frame in this market -- like a week?


----------



## skyQuake (13 September 2011)

Very whippy market.

-BNP Paribus unable to borrow in dollars anymore - seeking out euros.
-Then report denied.
-French/German will come to agreement on Greece by Tues
-No such agreement exists.

Wild swing fun!


----------



## satanoperca (13 September 2011)

For anyone interested in how we have got ourselves into this situation, the link below is an interesting read or just view the chart

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/crisis-explained-one-chart-debt-gdp/11570


----------



## sinner (14 September 2011)

A worthy read for those stating they are "going in for the long haul" and don't care about further downside. Examines bonds, REITS, stocks, EAFE stocks and GSCI.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461

I remember Radge has publicly stated a few similar concepts, like buy the 52 week breakout sell the 13 week breakdown, or buy a break of the 80,2 boll and sell on break of the 80ma...but for individual stocks. I also know you aren't supposed to run techtrader scans when the index is under the 180ema of lows.

The returns may not necessarily be 100% of market but as the paper clearly quantifies, you can participate safely in 2/3 or more of the upside and avoid 50-70% of the downside with simple trend following technique.



> First, a trend-following model will underperform buy and hold during a roaring bull market similar to the U.S. equity markets in the 1990s. On the flip side, the timing model avoids lengthy and protracted bear markets. Consequently, the value added by timing is evident only over the course of entire business cycles.




Obviously this doesn't concern swing traders or whatever, I just put it out there for those seemingly willing to long for the "long term investment" type rationale.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (14 September 2011)

sinner said:


> A worthy read for those stating they are "going in for the long haul" and don't care about further downside. Examines bonds, REITS, stocks, EAFE stocks and GSCI.




Hey mate, thanks for the share


----------



## craft (14 September 2011)

sinner said:


> A worthy read for those stating they are "going in for the long haul" and don't care about further downside. Examines bonds, REITS, stocks, EAFE stocks and GSCI.
> 
> http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
> 
> ...




When viewed as a whole, timing contributes nothing to wealth creation.  As far as excess returns from timing are concerned, for someone to gain, someone else has to lose.  In fact it is less than a zero sum game because of transaction costs and because trading crystallises the government’s right to their share via the taxation system.

I don’t think the paper really even address the issue of timing as superior to buy and hold.  What it does actually suggest is that one form of market timing can outperform buy and hold – but for this to be true the excess return can only come from other market timers making equivalently poorer results than buy & hold plus paying all the transaction and tax costs.

The majority of market participants are competing against each other via timing – some (by the laws of mathematics) are actually above average and can make excess returns  but those returns will be provided by the trading losers not by the 'buy and holders'.

I prefer to try and outperform the market by stock selection. It’s less crowded doesn’t have the commission and taxation drag. Whilst it is closer aligned to buy and hold then market timing it does have subtle distinctions. For example the drawdown’s are not as large as the market averages because you are avoiding inferior business models and over-indebted companies. 

Whilst I am one of







> those seemingly willing to long for the "long term investment" type



this paper offers very little in way of valid argument against my strategy.


----------



## skc (14 September 2011)

craft said:


> When viewed as a whole, timing contributes nothing to wealth creation.  As far as excess returns from timing are concerned, for someone to gain, someone else has to lose.  In fact it is less than a zero sum game because of transaction costs and because trading crystallises the government’s right to their share via the taxation system.
> 
> I don’t think the paper really even address the issue of timing as superior to buy and hold.  What it does actually suggest is that one form of market timing can outperform buy and hold – but for this to be true the excess return can only come from other market timers making equivalently poorer results than buy & hold plus paying all the transaction and tax costs.
> 
> ...




Just because not all market-timers can make money (by definition which I agree), it doesn't seem to lead to a conclusion that one should not attempt market-timing, or that buy and hold is a superior strategy. 

A positive way to look at it...Market timing works because there are plenty of other suckers providing you with the returns. The more people try it, the better your return.


----------



## craft (14 September 2011)

skc said:


> Just because not all market-timers can make money (by definition which I agree), it doesn't seem to lead to a conclusion that one should not attempt market-timing, or that buy and hold is a superior strategy.
> 
> A positive way to look at it...Market timing works because there are plenty of other suckers providing you with the returns. The more people try it, the better your return.




Absolutely agree with you.

If you don’t want to give your money away you had better be pretty honest with yourself as to whether you are above average or not. 

I would also suggest that the Pareto Principle is alive and well in trading so 80% if not more goes to 20% or less.  That means a large and ongoing stream of suckers on the other side.

Are you good enough?  Can you compete against highly resourced and capitalised opponents? 

Or are you feeling lucky!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-oinyjsk0


----------



## skc (14 September 2011)

craft said:


> If you don’t want to give your money away you had *better be pretty honest with yourself as to whether you are above average or not*.
> 
> I would also suggest that the Pareto Principle is alive and well in trading so 80% if not more goes to 20% or less.  That means a large and ongoing stream of suckers on the other side.




Yes so true... 



> Svenson (1981) surveyed 161 students in Sweden and the United States, asking them to compare their driving safety and skill to the other people in the experiment. For driving skill, 93% of the US sample and 69% of the Swedish sample put themselves in the top 50% (above the median). For safety, 88% of the US group and 77% of the Swedish sample put themselves in the top 50%.[25]




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority


----------



## tech/a (14 September 2011)

While Im enjoying the short on the SPI that reversal is pretty damned ugly!


----------



## TheAbyss (14 September 2011)

So what is the average time a stock remains in the ASX top 100? 1 year, 10, 25, 50? Time in the market may be a valid strategy but if you bought the top 100 50 years ago would you even own a stock today?


----------



## nomore4s (14 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> While Im enjoying the short on the SPI that reversal is pretty damned ugly!




Very ugly indeed. AUD, Oil, Asia all getting smashed. Hong Kong has lost 450 points since open.


----------



## Chasero (14 September 2011)

Wow, COH shares had a  2 day dead cat bounce then plunged off the cliff!!

Looks like the market's in for a terrible ride over the next few months over rumours & speculation.


----------



## prawn_86 (14 September 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> So what is the average time a stock remains in the ASX top 100? 1 year, 10, 25, 50? Time in the market may be a valid strategy but if you bought the top 100 50 years ago would you even own a stock today?




Agree, survivorship bias is an issue most dont consider. Thats why if you do want to invest in the index long term you should be buying an index fund which mirrors the wieghtings of the index.


----------



## skc (14 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Looks like the market's in for a terrible ride over the next few months over rumours & speculation.




The market is very broken at them moment. Following rumour of Chinese investing in pizza and pasta, we bail out rumours from Russia and Brazil last night.

No prize for guessing that India will start buying up Europe tonight...  Do they even have foreign exchange reserve? Or will they raise debt so they could "invest" in Europe?!


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 September 2011)

skc said:


> The market is very broken at them moment. Following rumour of Chinese investing in pizza and pasta, we bail out rumours from Russia and Brazil last night.
> 
> No prize for guessing that India will start buying up Europe tonight...  Do they even have foreign exchange reserve? Or will they raise debt so they could "invest" in Europe?!




Throw this into the witches' cauldron and we have a mighty toxic brew...



> Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, facing calls to widen support for indebted European countries, signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs *rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy. *
> 
> “Countries must first put their own houses in order,” Wen said today at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese city of Dalian.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...must-cut-debt-and-deficits-increase-jobs.html

What hope is there if China are declaring they will pick up their bat and ball and won't play the game?

Answers, anyone???


----------



## skc (14 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Throw this into the witches' cauldron and we have a mighty toxic brew...
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...must-cut-debt-and-deficits-increase-jobs.html
> 
> ...




Well... on a more positive note he didn't say "他媽的关闭"


----------



## LifeChoices (14 September 2011)

There was supposed to be a bounce today. This afternoon has been a shocker. Going down sharply now.


----------



## sinner (14 September 2011)

craft said:


> When viewed as a whole, timing contributes nothing to wealth creation.  As far as excess returns from timing are concerned, for someone to gain, someone else has to lose.  In fact it is less than a zero sum game because of transaction costs and because trading crystallises the government’s right to their share via the taxation system.




The paper addresses both transaction costs and taxation issues. Did you bother to read it?



> I don’t think the paper really even address the issue of timing as superior to buy and hold.  What it does actually suggest is that one form of market timing can outperform buy and hold – but for this to be true the excess return can only come from other market timers making equivalently poorer results than buy & hold plus paying all the transaction and tax costs.




err no, the paper actually identifies exactly where the excess return comes from:

Lower volatility.



> I prefer to try and outperform the market by stock selection. It’s less crowded doesn’t have the commission and taxation drag. Whilst it is closer aligned to buy and hold then market timing it does have subtle distinctions. For example the drawdown’s are not as large as the market averages because you are avoiding inferior business models and over-indebted companies.
> 
> Whilst I am one ofthis paper offers very little in way of valid argument against my strategy.




No idea how you pay less commission buying multiple stocks than an index once a year, or how you avoid taxation either. It isn't an "argument" against your strategy, just something to read and consider if you want to be a buy and hold type. The paper clearly quantifies that momentum provides alpha over a huge timeframe.


----------



## LostMyShirt (14 September 2011)

What the heck is going on?

I love how insto's project doom and gloom - they probably go ahead for some buys right after their doom and gloom announcements. Oh well, thats just me. Paranoid and losing $$$. Time heals all wounds  Kinda...


----------



## nomore4s (14 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> There was supposed to be a bounce today. This afternoon has been a shocker. Going down sharply now.




Why was there supposed to be a bounce today?


----------



## LifeChoices (14 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Why was there supposed to be a bounce today?




It was wishful thinking more than anything else. 



sinner said:


> A worthy read for those stating they are "going in for the long haul" and don't care about further downside. Examines bonds, REITS, stocks, EAFE stocks and GSCI.




Thanks for posting. Makes sense to me. Don't really see too much sense in just watching shares depreciate daily when you could step aside have the money in the bank earning close to 6%


----------



## sinner (14 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> It was wishful thinking more than anything else.
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for posting. Makes sense to me. Don't really see too much sense in just watching shares depreciate daily when you could step aside have the money in the bank earning close to 6%




It makes sense to me too. I moved (just as an example, so nobody gets their knickers twisted) my super to cash in August 2008. Spotted this on my super website earlier this month as I was doing my spreadsheets:



> Cumulative intermim-credit rate table
> Crediting rates for previous 3 financial years ( After tax and fees )
> 2008 - 2009	2009 - 2010	2010 - 2011	3 year compound average to 30 June 2011
> Cash	3.72%	3.70%	4.47%	3.96%
> ...




Plain to see that volatility has compounded and eaten whatever cumulative returns provided by other asset classes since the GFC got really underfoot. Cash and fixed interest ftw. 

Could I have done better by going back into stocks at the start of '09? Sure. As long as I got out again mid '11! But my return has certainly not suffered in comparison to those who continued to buy and hold into their supers and investment accounts during the whole period. In hindsight, fixed interest did even better than cash but as I'm unsure exactly what this investment option entails in the case of my super (is it fixed interest into some crappy corporate bond basket?) I left it alone.

In other words, wake me up when we are back above the 200ma  Until then, buying volatility in pig stocks and buying gold is where the edge is at imho.


----------



## skc (14 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Why was there supposed to be a bounce today?




Well there was *a* bounce... what's that old penis analogy? Just didn't have the viagra. We did well staying above 4000 on the XJO.

While the media scrambling for headlines to explain the fall.

The Australia thinks it's "Australian sharemarket rocked after Moody's downgrades Societe Generale, Credit Agricole"

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...des-french-banks/story-e6frg91o-1226136977853

SMH went with "Asian growth outlook unnerves investors" 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asian-growth-outlook-unnerves-investors-20110914-1k8k8.html


----------



## nomore4s (14 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> While Im enjoying the short on the SPI that reversal is pretty damned ugly!




Unless we see some strength come in at the 3700-3900 level it could get very ugly. I can not find 1 chart that I would consider putting a long on atm, which is not a very good sign for the overall market.

I see no signs of strength in the weakness of any charts and this is not normally the case. IMO it won't take much too push this market down very quickly. I now think we will see a test of 3700 in the near term and then maybe a small bounce but I think the market will be in a steady downtrend for a while - in other words a prolonged bear market.


----------



## craft (14 September 2011)

sinner said:


> The paper addresses both transaction costs and taxation issues. Did you bother to read it?.



Yes I have read it.  Taxes, commissions and slippage are not included in the figures they are only considered as an adjunct under the heading of ‘Practical Considerations’




> err no, the paper actually identifies exactly where the excess return comes from:
> 
> Lower volatility.



Yes but my point is that the lower volatility can only be obtained if you pass the parcel to another trader. Buy and Hold may be the benchmark they are comparing against but a buy and holder by definition would not be the counterparty to the trading.




> No idea how you pay less commission buying multiple stocks than an index once a year, or how you avoid taxation either



They say the strategy turnover is 70% - Long Term Investing turnover should be far lower than this.




> It isn't an "argument" against your strategy, just something to read and consider if you want to be a buy and hold type.



Read it, considered it and posted a response as to why I thought it wasn't very relevant.



> The paper clearly quantifies that momentum provides alpha over a huge timeframe



 Alpha compares the return from active participation – by definition if you have positive alpha you have beaten the market but you haven’t  done so at the expense of buy and hold but at the expense of other active participants.

I am not sure why traders always want to assign long term investors as the patsies to their trading activities.  Maybe it’s because they don’t want to face the facts that they are playing a less than zero sum game between themselves.


----------



## wayneL (14 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Thanks for posting. Makes sense to me. Don't really see too much sense in just watching shares depreciate daily when you could step aside have the money in the bank earning close to 6%




But, but, but.... you could sell covered calls against your CFDs and make 6% per month! ::

</sarc>


----------



## sinner (14 September 2011)

craft said:


> Buy and Hold may be the benchmark they are comparing against but a buy and holder by definition would not be the counterparty to the trading.




Poppycock. As if in this market with HFT, stat arb, options, etc, anyone knows who/why the counterparty for their trade is. Buy and holders could be buying off a market timer, or an options arb guy, but they have to buy at some point. And it is clear from this thread that new buy and hold money is entering the market daily, so you can imagine at least some of the buy and holders *were* counterparty to the selling by market timers as cumulative breadth indices and long term MAs showed downtrend at the start of August.



> I am not sure why traders always want to assign long term investors as the patsies to their trading activities.  Maybe it’s because they don’t want to face the facts that they are playing a less than zero sum game between themselves.




Mate, I don't want to assign you as a patsy, ever. Let alone always. Somehow posting a *research paper* that examines market timing over a timeframe that most people would not even consider "trading", has made me a "trader, out for patsies". You seem to have taken a *research paper* as some sort of personal derogation against your investment strategy. Let me clarify for you: do whatever the hell you like, I really don't care. I just thought to post a *research paper* for those who might find it as interesting a read as I did.


----------



## craft (14 September 2011)

sinner said:


> Poppycock. As if in this market with HFT, stat arb, options, etc, anyone knows who/why the counterparty for their trade is. Buy and holders could be buying off a market timer, or an options arb guy, but they have to buy at some point. And it is clear from this thread that new buy and hold money is entering the market daily, so you can imagine at least some of the buy and holders *were* counterparty to the selling by market timers as cumulative breadth indices and long term MAs showed downtrend at the start of August..




A buy and hold investor only has one decision to make – At what price will they buy. Hopefully they wouldn’t be standing ready at extended valuations to be the counterparty for traders but after reading some forums who would know? but regardless as they only account for a small percentage of transactions they can’t be a significant counterparty to traders.





> Mate, I don't want to assign you as a patsy, ever. Let alone always. Somehow posting a *research paper* that examines market timing over a timeframe that most people would not even consider "trading", has made me a "trader, out for patsies". You seem to have taken a *research paper* as some sort of personal derogation against your investment strategy. Let me clarify for you: do whatever the hell you like, I really don't care. I just thought to post a *research paper* for those who might find it as interesting a read as I did.




You put the paper up as relevant to long term holders – I didn’t take it personally just put a counter argument because I didn’t think it very relevant.  Probably more relevant to other traders that don’t implement long-term momentum strategies – but I suspect they would not think much of it either.

There's no need to get hot under the collar - I'm happy to keep my thoughts to myself in the future.


----------



## LifeChoices (14 September 2011)

craft said:


> A buy and hold investor only has one decision to make – At what price will they buy.




So a buy and hold investor never sells - they just buy once, then eventually they die.

Not much fun in that scenario. However, I guess you could always smirk to yourself, while waiting to die, with the knowledge that you are richer and wiser than everyone else.


----------



## Dowdy (14 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> So a buy and hold investor never sells - they just buy once, then eventually they die.
> 
> Not much fun in that scenario. However, I guess you could always smirk to yourself, while waiting to die, with the knowledge that you are richer and wiser than everyone else.




Well some people want to pass on their stocks to their children. example. Jim Rogers (you can't say he's a bad investor - he's a billionaire!)


----------



## Chasero (14 September 2011)

Just curious, is anyone out there actually buying shares now with a long term view?

I'm thinking 4,000 will hold this week. Tho I am usually wrong!


----------



## notting (14 September 2011)

I like to stand with my hoof on market sentiments throat and I piss on it's face.
It seems to me that Greece is rushing through austerity measures to get it's next bail out.
Not going to default just yet you'd imagine.
Boing.


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Just curious, is anyone out there actually buying shares now with a long term view?
> 
> I'm thinking 4,000 will hold this week. Tho I am usually wrong!



Yes I think the markets will bottom between now and the end of October so have one buy and hold. Send you a copy of the confirmation note if you don't believe me.


----------



## LostMyShirt (14 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Just curious, is anyone out there actually buying shares now with a long term view?
> 
> I'm thinking 4,000 will hold this week. Tho I am usually wrong!




I am. I have this theory that the Gold mining stocks will outperform the market during this "concern". Since they are producing the one thing that people are rallying for, and stand to make money from the increased price.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (15 September 2011)

Would an investment in an oil company worked out well if you bought when oil was hitting record highs back in 2008,  

Why would an investment in a gold producer work out any better, when the gold price crashes you may regret it.

Plenty of other earth moving businesses with better profit margins,


----------



## LostMyShirt (15 September 2011)

I find it hard to believe it will crash back down to the likes of $1200 and even if it did there are a few up and comers still standing to profit greatly and have their sp chalked up to fair value. The longer it remains high the longer increased margins can be taken - and I find it hard to believe this debt issue, which is what drove people to gold in the first place, is going to go away any time soon.

This isn't oil were talking about here; it's gold. The reason it has spiked as of late, to name one, is the issue with American and European debt. When that settles (if) gold will settle. But for the time being the up and comers who had feasability studies done with a $1200 POG and have not yet reached target will stand to gain from the increased margins.

"What if" - what if the sky turns black tomorrow and the sun explodes?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (15 September 2011)

That's right gold is not oil, it is not sustaining life as we know it, it just sits there.

There were many arguments of why oil would hit $200, but within weeks it dropped two thirds of it's value. 

But anyway good luck with that, 

By the way, a mine is just an earth moving operation, and iron ore and other commodities are more profitable and larger scale,


----------



## LostMyShirt (15 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> That's right gold is not oil, it is not sustaining life as we know it, it just sits there.
> 
> There were many arguments of why oil would hit $200, but within weeks it dropped two thirds of it's value.
> 
> ...




I'll keep that in mind, thanks for the advice.

I agree though, Gold just sits there. Though as long as people use it as an investment item there is going to be a demand for it, and the producers stand to profit from such a demand, like what we have now.


----------



## LifeChoices (15 September 2011)

Horray, Europe is all fixed. Maybe we will see a decent rally today back up to 5000


----------



## notting (15 September 2011)

China's evil gesture of friendship, which they have a history of voicing before they perform horrendous unspekable acts upon people, was quite eye brow raising yesterday.

The last thing China wants is a fix for Euroland. They intentionally created the problem in the first place!

Did you notice the Chinese mixed their gesture of friendship whilst Europe seemed to be buckling at the knees with a grab for power and promises of assistence but zero commitments to anything!

These are the "good  friends" who were, just the other day, shipping arms to Gadafi so he could continue to murder and brutalize his own people and cause problems for Euroland.
Just as the Chinese did with Magabe during his last sabotage of Zimbabwe elections.

Evil.

Bring on the Eurobond and start printing!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 September 2011)

You certainly have to be nimble. I think there could be a sizable rally going into the weekend, with a few proviso's -
if the Euro zone can kick the Greek (& Italian & French??) can through to the weekend on rhetoric
the US manufacturing data is 'better than expected' (but still terrible)
if 1 & 2 are true, then, the massive short positions in US stocks will get closed out causing a short covering rally
Now also assuming that a lower high for the Dow means a 'target' of around 11500-11600 for this week. Then, short the rally.....otherwise it's all risk to the downside as a Greek default finally gets 'priced in' (they have already defaulted, it's just that nobody want's to say it publicly...) As well as a double dip recession for the US if the manufacturing data comes in a shocker...


----------



## RandR (15 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> You certainly have to be nimble. I think there could be a sizable rally going into the weekend, with a few proviso's -
> if the Euro zone can kick the Greek (& Italian & French??) can through to the weekend on rhetoric
> the US manufacturing data is 'better than expected' (but still terrible)
> if 1 & 2 are true, then, the massive short positions in US stocks will get closed out causing a short covering rally
> Now also assuming that a lower high for the Dow means a 'target' of around 11500-11600 for this week. Then, short the rally.....otherwise it's all risk to the downside as a Greek default finally gets 'priced in' (they have already defaulted, it's just that nobody want's to say it publicly...) As well as a double dip recession for the US if the manufacturing data comes in a shocker...




Interesting couple of days ahead, after seeing the capitulation of the ASX200 yesterday afternoon it was quite perplexing to see europe (the dax especially) bounce.


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2011)

Strange that you now see the price action of the ASX as a capitulation NOW.
What was it yesterday afternoon?


----------



## RandR (15 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Strange that you now see the price action of the ASX as a capitulation NOW.
> What was it yesterday afternoon?




Im pretty confused by this post tech. 

Yesterday afternoon the price action of the ASX 200 was clearly capitulating.


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I agree though, Gold just sits there. Though as long as people use it as an investment item there is going to be a demand for it, and the producers stand to profit from such a demand, like what we have now.




Gold has never done anything but sitting there. That's been the case for what, 5000 years? What are the chances of that changing in our life time?



notting said:


> China's evil gesture of friendship, which they have a history of voicing before they perform horrendous unspekable acts upon people, was quite eye brow raising yesterday.
> 
> The last thing China wants is a fix for Euroland. They intentionally created the problem in the first place!




How did China intentionally cause the Euro debt crisis?



Uncle Festivus said:


> You certainly have to be nimble. I think there could be a sizable rally going into the weekend, with a few proviso's




Agree. If we get more positive rhetorics coming out of Germany and France, a few more rambling about BRIC support, and a few more hope-rally on QE3 by 21 Sept... it should last us to at least the end of the week...


----------



## notting (15 September 2011)

RandR said:


> Interesting couple of days ahead, after seeing the capitulation of the ASX200 yesterday afternoon it was quite perplexing to see europe (the dax especially) bounce.




I was seeing reports that Greece was rushing through new austerity measures whilst all the media was reporting bucket loads of rubbish about imminent defaults it was unbelievable!!

Further, there were more Greeks on the streets protesting.  However these particular protests looked more like Zombies walking along the streets rather than energized violent clashes.

Think about it.

It's not so enjoyable greezing yourself up and lying on a beach whilst your bank cannot give you any money for food and you are well freeking hungry!! 
Let's all protest so that we have no food or social security tomorrow!!
"Yeah - Down with austerity measures down with Germany!!
Where's my free Souvlaki I'm 54 Goddammit!"

Waiky waiky!!

I bought so much that I felt sick.  Won't be holding for long.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (15 September 2011)

It may just be someone playing funny games with the market depth indicator, But it looks like alot of the big names are going to have a decent kick up at opening, maybe up 100 points.

It is far from a reliable indicator though, we will have to wait and see.


----------



## captain black (15 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> It may just be someone playing funny games with the market depth indicator, But it looks like alot of the big names are going to have a decent kick up at opening, maybe up 100 points.
> 
> It is far from a reliable indicator though, we will have to wait and see.




September futures expiry today may explain some of it


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> It may just be someone playing funny games with the market depth indicator, But it looks like alot of the big names are going to have a decent kick up at opening, maybe up 100 points.
> 
> It is far from a reliable indicator though, we will have to wait and see.




Futures is up 70 odd points from last night.


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2011)

RandR said:


> Im pretty confused by this post tech.
> 
> Yesterday afternoon the price action of the ASX 200 was clearly capitulating.




Just looked like a down day to me.
Euroland having a reversal and a little on the DOW may have influenced your comment.
To me a capitulation is a last gasp thrust down.
Ive got no reason to believe that yesterday was that!


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2011)

Thats amazing never seen that in 17 yrs.

For the last 30 min the range of the SPI has been a Tick 4098/4099
Volume is rubbish.


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Thats amazing never seen that in 17 yrs.
> 
> For the last 30 min the range of the SPI has been a Tick 4098/4099
> Volume is rubbish.




Tech that contract expires today, change to APZ1


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2011)

hahaha 
Where are those dementia tablets!
I need a good laugh!


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

Bad fade so far, lost about 30 points since open, will we get a rally when HSI opens?


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Bad fade so far, lost about 30 points since open, will we get a rally when HSI opens?




De Javu...


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

skc said:


> De Javu...




Yeah it's like taking candy from a baby atm, just sell into any strength and try to catch as much of the trend as you can.


----------



## RandR (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Yeah it's like taking candy from a baby atm, just sell into any strength and try to catch as much of the trend as you can.




chart is looking quite similar to yesterday. Maybe not a bright finish to the week after all.


----------



## tech/a (15 September 2011)

Bugga missed that was like a beacon---on the right chart!


----------



## Struzball (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Yeah it's like taking candy from a baby atm, just sell into any strength and try to catch as much of the trend as you can.




Yes, the XAO is not much fun to watch any more.


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

Some strength has come into the market across the board, Will it hold and follow through now is the question.


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Some strength has come into the market across the board, Will it hold and follow through now is the question.




50pts lower... there was really pretty good strength this morning but we are now looking at a flat day as optimistic outcome.

Let's see how HK opens after lunch...


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

skc said:


> 50pts lower... there was really pretty good strength this morning but we are now looking at a flat day as optimistic outcome.
> 
> Let's see how HK opens after lunch...




Yeah I thought that strength would at least hold but it failed big time.

HK opened pretty weak, down around 100 points


----------



## notting (15 September 2011)

With the Au$ down so much you'd think it would fly at the close.
Futures are negative however.


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

Nice rally into the close. Interesting to see what happens tonight now.


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Nice rally into the close. Interesting to see what happens tonight now.




Another rollar coaster day. The vertical axis of my chart has a range of 120 points these days so a small 25pt movement "looks" like nothing. 30-50pt swings occur in a matter of hours (or minutes).

On days like these I wish I am a futures tape-reader.

Based on absolutely nothing but reverse psychology... the US should tank tonight...


----------



## LostMyShirt (15 September 2011)

I recon the DOW will open up ever so slightly in the green. I haven't seen any news today that may cause a shakey ride on the DOW. Then again, I've never been good at picking these things lately.


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

skc said:


> Another rollar coaster day. The vertical axis of my chart has a range of 120 points these days so a small 25pt movement "looks" like nothing. 30-50pt swings occur in a matter of hours (or minutes).
> 
> On days like these I wish I am a futures tape-reader.
> 
> Based on absolutely nothing but reverse psychology... the US should tank tonight...




Turned into quite a good rally, put on about 50 points in the last hour and a half which for the SPI is huuuge, didn't get any of it though as I tend not to trade the SPI after the first hour as I find it too hard to read accurately.

Had a good day on the HSI though.


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Turned into quite a good rally, put on about 50 points in the last hour and a half which for the SPI is huuuge, didn't get any of it though as I tend not to trade the SPI after the first hour as I find it too hard to read accurately.
> 
> Had a good day on the HSI though.




Want to compare P&L again?


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

skc said:


> Want to compare P&L again?




Hahaha, no thanks, I said a good day not a great day.


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Hahaha, no thanks, I said a good day not a great day.




Lol. Was just calling you bluff. I had nothing much either.


----------



## LostMyShirt (15 September 2011)

DAX, FTSE and DOW came out roaring today. Should reflect nicely on our markets tomorrow morning.


----------



## skc (15 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> DAX, FTSE and DOW came out roaring today. Should reflect nicely on our markets tomorrow morning.




Globally coodinated liquidity bailout...

It helps but it's not a cure. Blood transfusion doesn't cure cancer...

How long with this last? I can see SPX retesting 1250, but a bit harder to see XJO going to test 4500 which is the cliff that we fell off from.


----------



## RandR (15 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> DAX, FTSE and DOW came out roaring today. Should reflect nicely on our markets tomorrow morning.




Another strong open tomorrow ? followed by another pull back in the afternoon ? Can imagine a lot of people will want to be closing positions at the end of tomorrow.


----------



## LostMyShirt (15 September 2011)

RandR said:


> Another strong open tomorrow ? followed by another pull back in the afternoon ? Can imagine a lot of people will want to be closing positions at the end of tomorrow.




I don't know about a "stong" open - I just expect to close out with gains, rather than in the red.

Skc - definitely not a cure, just helpful for those with long positions. Gold price on the decline, looks like some investor confidence has returned, for now...


----------



## LifeChoices (16 September 2011)

Europe is holding up so far - a good 2 - 3% gain on the asx on Friday would go down well.

If I'm back at the same point I was last Friday, I'll buy myself a shandy.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 September 2011)

RandR said:


> Another strong open tomorrow ? followed by another pull back in the afternoon ? Can imagine a lot of people will want to be closing positions at the end of tomorrow.




Agree. There will probably be a strong open which will falter early afternoon then really fade after 2:30pm. It's Friday.


----------



## nomore4s (16 September 2011)

Weak open so far, not a good sign.

SPI was only about 45 points up from yesterdays close and the last 3 times we have only been up under 50 points after a strong night on the DOW our market has been very weak the next day. And with such a weak opening today it isn't looking good atm, Aisa could be drag us higher if it opens strongly but if Aisa is also weak today........


----------



## skc (16 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Weak open so far, not a good sign.
> 
> SPI was only about 45 points up from yesterdays close and the last 3 times we have only been up under 50 points after a strong night on the DOW our market has been very weak the next day. And with such a weak opening today it isn't looking good atm, Aisa could be drag us higher if it opens strongly but if Aisa is also weak today........




Actually a bit of strength... 

There's a bearish conspiracy theory out there that the liquidity facility is a preparation for a Greek default. If you look carefully the Greek bonds are not on the accepted instrument list (and for good reason), even though Ireland and Portugal bonds are.


----------



## VSntchr (16 September 2011)

The real question is...is it time to re-short!!


----------



## skc (16 September 2011)

VSntchr said:


> The real question is...is it time to re-short!!




I'd say 2 days after Bernanke's speech would be about right. i.e. next Friday.


----------



## Muschu (19 September 2011)

What a ride!  

I see the DJIA futures are already down 128 while the SPI has been steady at +8.

Any thoughts from wise heads on movements this week?  

I'd go fishing but it's too rough there as well.

Regards
Rick


----------



## skc (19 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> What a ride!
> 
> I see the DJIA futures are already down 128 while the SPI has been steady at +8.
> 
> ...




SPI is down 25 points or so at the moment. New fears over the weekend about Greek default...

Apparently 20 Sept is a good D-Day. But that is offest by the potential of helicopter Ben turning into carpet-bomb Ben on 21 Sept.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-20-greek-default-day

BTW take everything from zerohedge as the worst case scenario and add in your own dose of optimism / reality.


----------



## tech/a (19 September 2011)

World markets are coming to a critical point in time.
Here as we can see the charts of the US/EUROPE and Australia are very similar.

*Resistance or breakout??*

The true potential will be seen in the coming days and I haven't placed Volume on the chart for a reason.

*FROM HERE ON*

*We need to see* volume at an average with a definite bursting through resistance to have confidence in a return to bullishness.
Increased volume into resistance I will see as weak and either resistance OR a false breakout.(Bull trap).

There is more to play out before this top is tested and could be as quickly as this week or as long as a few weeks.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


----------



## Muschu (19 September 2011)

skc said:


> SPI is down 25 points or so at the moment. New fears over the weekend about Greek default...
> 
> Apparently 20 Sept is a good D-Day. But that is offest by the potential of helicopter Ben turning into carpet-bomb Ben on 21 Sept.
> 
> ...




Thanks skc and Tech.

Bloomberg is giving SPI as +8 which seems false.  I imagine you are checking elsewhere skc.... May I ask where please?


----------



## Plumber1 (19 September 2011)

skc said:


> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-20-greek-default-day
> 
> BTW take everything from zerohedge as the worst case scenario and add in your own dose of optimism / reality.




Same with www.telegraph.co.uk/finance especially anything written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ( a real euro-sceptic).

But both zerohedge and telegraph.co.uk are good background resources.


----------



## skc (19 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> Thanks skc and Tech.
> 
> Bloomberg is giving SPI as +8 which seems false.  I imagine you are checking elsewhere skc.... May I ask where please?




IG markets make up some quotes as a market maker before official SPI open. It's not always correct but within say +/- 10 pts usually.

SPI is open now and down 30 so the IG guess is reasonable this morning.

Bloomberg (the website) for live data is very slow... and not too many retail traders can afford Bloomberg terminals.


----------



## Muschu (19 September 2011)

skc said:


> IG markets make up some quotes as a market maker before official SPI open. It's not always correct but within say +/- 10 pts usually.
> 
> SPI is open now and down 30 so the IG guess is reasonable this morning.
> 
> Bloomberg (the website) for live data is very slow... and not too many retail traders can afford Bloomberg terminals.




Thanks skc.  Have you a website [please] for IG?  The Bloomberg site I am using is stlll showing +8....


----------



## notting (19 September 2011)

If it opens lower I will eat my hoof.
I expect a quick fade.


----------



## lenny (19 September 2011)

Rick, 

The spi closed +8 at the end of americas friday night session so the bloomberg quote is correct.

The spi resets at 9:50


----------



## nomore4s (19 September 2011)

notting said:


> If it opens lower I will eat my hoof.
> I expect a quick fade.




 SPI opened at 4128 - which is 35 points lower


----------



## notting (19 September 2011)

Yep looked at the wrong moment!  Interpreted it as US performance would bounce then Euro inaction would quickly over run it.
Wrong.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 September 2011)

notting said:


> If it opens lower I will eat my hoof.
> I expect a quick fade.




How would you like that served :


----------



## sinner (19 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> World markets are coming to a critical point in time.
> Here as we can see the charts of the US/EUROPE and Australia are very similar.
> 
> *Resistance or breakout??*




NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) has already broken out of your R/B line based on retard-strength showings in AMZN and AAPL. Russell 2000 (small caps) isn't showing the same conviction and lagging. Breadth as measured by NYSE Summation Index and NASDAQ Summation Index still well negative. 




Meanwhile, the DAX looks downright anemic. 

This might all sound a bit bearish, but really, with correlations between indices this low, it's sort of bullish. During 2008 implied correlation was pretty much 100%.


----------



## skc (19 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> Thanks skc.  Have you a website [please] for IG?  The Bloomberg site I am using is stlll showing +8....




Just igmarkets . com . au

You can sign up for a free demo account to get those numbers.


----------



## adds4 (19 September 2011)

he asx isnt tanking. If you want tanking come and watch my footy team play, port adelaide. Thats how you tank


----------



## vkdirector (19 September 2011)

adds4 said:


> he asx isnt tanking. If you want tanking come and watch my footy team play, port adelaide. Thats how you tank




Yeah but they picked a bad year for that as the extra draft picks they would usually get as a bonus are all gone


----------



## Muschu (19 September 2011)

skc said:


> Just igmarkets . com . au
> 
> You can sign up for a free demo account to get those numbers.




Many thanks skc -- just read this as I went out for the day....


----------



## LifeChoices (19 September 2011)

When Australia tanks again, tomorrow or the next day. I hope Aussie Jeff or someone else hops on this thread with a rant and says something really insulting about Greeks. I found it most amusing the last time someone did that.


----------



## RandR (19 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> When Australia tanks again, tomorrow or the next day. I hope Aussie Jeff or someone else hops on this thread with a rant and says something really insulting about Greeks. I found it most amusing the last time someone did that.




+ 1 !

tomorrow looks likely ...

.. man o man why did I not look at shorting qantas this week.


----------



## nomore4s (20 September 2011)

Markets were looking ok there for awhile, then they just all fell off a cliff.


----------



## skc (20 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Markets were looking ok there for awhile, then they just all fell off a cliff.




It was a very quiet morning with very low volume... it felt like everyone was looking around for direction on how to react to the Italian downgrade.

Then, like a school of fish suddenly turning direction without any prompts, we decided South is the way to go... probably more sensible than North.


----------



## Ventron (20 September 2011)

Has anyone else been brave enough to do bargain buying today? I haven't yet, but NAB @ just under $22 is really teasing me...

I wonder when the Greek default will be. Given that everyone thinks it's almost a certainty, have the markets already priced that in?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 September 2011)

Ventron said:


> Has anyone else been brave enough to do bargain buying today? I haven't yet, but NAB @ just under $22 is really teasing me...
> 
> I wonder when the Greek default will be. Given that everyone thinks it's almost a certainty, have the markets already priced that in?




I sold a put option over a company yesterday, I would have got a higher premium if I waited till today though,


----------



## RandR (20 September 2011)

Looks like we could end up near flat today, or only down slightly about 0.2% from the open. I think we could have a green day tomorrow on the asx. Will have to wait and see what happens overnight though. The rumours doing the rounds were greece was a possible chance of defaulting on the 20th due to the timing of CDS. If we make it to the 21st with nothing imploding there might be a 'slight' relaxing to peoples nerves.

This is only a hunch.


----------



## WhoToTrust (22 September 2011)

Sentiment seems to be worsening imo:

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3322973.htm



> STEPHEN LONG: What are the prospects of a Greek default now?
> 
> OLIVER HARTWICH: I think it's almost certain that Greece will default; the only question is when.
> 
> ...




Interesting statement!


----------



## Conza88 (22 September 2011)

WhoToTrust said:


> Sentiment seems to be worsening imo:
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3322973.htm
> 
> Interesting statement!




​



> Chris Leithner interviewed on 612 ABC Radio Brisbane on the 9th of April, 2010.
> 
> Audio only. Titled; Chris Leithner on the OECD Nations debt levels
> 
> ...




 ...


----------



## nulla nulla (22 September 2011)

Big fall on the djia overnight, particulalry in the last hour. ftse and dax both down. We will follow suite today. Wouldn't surprise me to see a sharp drop then a small bounce. 

Still lots of "smart" people selling into the rises caused by "smart" people buying the bargains. Getting a bit like the retail stores at the moment, the bargains are even better a few days later. Bit like a stock clearance before the shut down.


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Big fall on the djia overnight, particulalry in the last hour. ftse and dax both down. We will follow suite today. Wouldn't surprise me to see a sharp drop then a small bounce.
> 
> Still lots of "smart" people selling into the rises caused by "smart" people buying the bargains. Getting a bit like the retail stores at the moment, the bargains are even better a few days later. Bit like a stock clearance before the shut down.




Op Twist was already priced in. The market was hopeful of more and got nothing.

Now there is no immediate good news date on the US front. Europe is still doing it's best to delay the inevitable. If Greek is put down finally, it will be some time before the implications are flushed out and we are in for even more volatile times.


----------



## LostMyShirt (22 September 2011)

Quite the annoyance.

I woke up this morning to see my stocks tank - wondering what my next course of action should be...


----------



## satanoperca (22 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Quite the annoyance.
> 
> I woke up this morning to see my stocks tank - wondering what my next course of action should be...




Refer to trading plan.


----------



## LostMyShirt (22 September 2011)

satanoperca said:


> Refer to trading plan.




Trading plan indicates hold/accumulate for this particular stock, not for others. My main concern is my growth investment as things are nearing boiling point for a re-evaluation. I will just wait - but at the same time I fear the XAO will drop to the percieved levels way under 3900, in turn a massive hit on the stocks.

Perhaps I'll hit the bleachers for the time being...


----------



## sammy84 (22 September 2011)

sammy84 said:


> This should be the last leg down. Have been waiting been patiently waiting in cash a while for this. 9th of August was the low. We need to test to test the 4100-3800 region again however before one can be sure.
> 
> Obviously if the low if broken convincingly I am wrong.




We're in the buy zone now. Waiting for that turn around (hopefully).


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

Actually I didn't sense much panic this morning... 'orderly' sell off of 3-5% amonst the large cap financials and industrials, while some of the former market darlings are taking harder hits. Base metals are hurting a bit more, but all in all it is not like a capitulation yet...


----------



## RandR (22 September 2011)

sammy84 said:


> We're in the buy zone now. Waiting for that turn around (hopefully).




Cant see it turning around today.

Patience. Must have patience.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (22 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Trading plan indicates hold/accumulate for this particular stock, ...




then take the dog to the park, the whether is great.


----------



## sammy84 (22 September 2011)

skc said:


> Actually I didn't sense much panic this morning... 'orderly' sell off of 3-5% amonst the large cap financials and industrials, while some of the former market darlings are taking harder hits. Base metals are hurting a bit more, but all in all it is not like a capitulation yet...




SKC, not sure if that reply is to me, but I'm not looking for capitulation. Capitulation occurred on the 9th of August for me. I have since been looking for a retest of that bar which we are now in. Need to see a reversal bar to have any merit though and if the XAO ploughs through 3800 I'll have to reassess.


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

sammy84 said:


> SKC, not sure if that reply is to me, but I'm not looking for capitulation. Capitulation occurred on the 9th of August for me. I have since been looking for a retest of that bar which we are now in. Need to see a reversal bar to have any merit though and if the XAO ploughs through 3800 I'll have to reassess.




Yes and No. Really just talking to myself. Hardly got any triggers on pairs trading which indicates things are just all moving up and down together (as opposed to all over the place) and hence my comment re orderly sell-off.

Personally I think the XAO chart is just messy and won't reveal a clear picture as long as Greece remains in limbo.


----------



## LostMyShirt (22 September 2011)

skc said:


> Yes and No. Really just talking to myself. Hardly got any triggers on pairs trading which indicates things are just all moving up and down together (as opposed to all over the place) and hence my comment re orderly sell-off.
> 
> Personally I think the XAO chart is just messy and won't reveal a clear picture as long as Greece remains in limbo.




Greece is going to remain in limbo for a while in my opinion. What do you think of the forecasts in regards to Greece defaulting by the weekend? A bit outlandish imo, then again, I've been wrong many several times before.


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Greece is going to remain in limbo for a while in my opinion. What do you think of the forecasts in regards to Greece defaulting by the weekend? A bit outlandish imo, then again, I've been wrong many several times before.




Well... Greece is like a dead / infected organ in the EU body... the earlier the amputation the less chance it has to spread.


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2011)

Greece cannot be allowed to default.
It has to be rescued.If it isnt rescued then
you will again see banks dropping like flies and 
there will be a dominoes effect as those banks default in areas not associated with Greece.

Here are some disturbing figures held by banks relative to Greece debt.

Japan $500 mill
Spain $600 mill
US $1.8 Bill
Italy $2.6 Bill
UK $3.2 Bill
France $19.8 Bill
Germany $26.3 Bill
Others $15.7 Bill.

Get the idea?


----------



## Ves (22 September 2011)

Very low volume today on the broader ASX market?


----------



## McLovin (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Greece cannot be allowed to default.
> It has to be rescued.If it isnt rescued then
> you will again see banks dropping like flies and
> there will be a dominoes effect as those banks default in areas not associated with Greece.
> ...




Greece won't cause those banks to go bust the numbers just aren't big enough. Of course if it spreads to an economy with some consequence (Italy and Spain are the two that come to mind) then all bets are off.


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Greece cannot be allowed to default.
> It has to be rescued.If it isnt rescued then
> you will again see banks dropping like flies and
> there will be a dominoes effect as those banks default in areas not associated with Greece.
> ...




Greece total here is only $70-80B. As a comparison Lehman had $600B in assets when it went belly up.

Just let Greece go... the system will take a huge heart attack but they should have time to prepare for it. USD liquidity line was one, there might be others. There will be unintended consequencies but so does keeping it alive. 

The question is whether there are enough political will...


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2011)

Oh Greek banks hold $91 bill.
If Greece goes then enjoy your next trip there!!

Wont be pretty if it goes.
For any of us.

How do you think the Greeks would react if they don't get supported and have massive upheaval and Spain or Italy or France r Germany get help because they are more likely to cause a bigger problem?????


----------



## sammy84 (22 September 2011)

I doubt Greek will default per se, I would be more a debt restructure so everyones interests remain protected.


----------



## Chasero (22 September 2011)

I have reached four digit reds on holding CBA. The pain!!

When will it end!!?


----------



## McLovin (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> How do you think the Greeks would react if they don't get supported and have massive upheaval and Spain or Italy or France r Germany get help because they are more likely to cause a bigger problem?????




Who cares how they react? They were an insignificant part of Europe before 2007 and now they're a broke insignificant part of Europe.


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I have reached four digit reds on holding CBA. The pain!!
> 
> When will it end!!?




Why on earth are you STILL holding?
Why havent you sold and waiting for a bottoming.
Why are you not short?


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 September 2011)

All Ords down only 2.7%

Meh.... the cat will bounce for sure.

When it drops 5-6% (or more) in one day followed by a similar drop the very next day, THEN it might be time to worry your assets off.


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> It's of no consequence how they react. Let them go back to the Drachma rather than piggybacking a spend-a-thon on the back of German productivity.




Don't disagree.
But if you don't think that will have repercussions within Europe to the negative side particularly in Greece then----

Then we can look at the Lira/Pesta/Franc/Marc


----------



## Tysonboss1 (22 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I have reached four digit reds on holding CBA. The pain!!
> 
> When will it end!!?




I am sorry, but it has been very entertaining watching your mood swings over the past couple of months.


----------



## McLovin (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Don't disagree.
> But if you don't think that will have repercussions within Europe to the negative side particularly in Greece then----
> 
> Then we can look at the Lira/Pesta/Franc/Marc




Sure it will, but you did say "how do you think the Greeks will react". It will have repercussions in the way any sovereign default has repercussions, the market will start picking at the stitching of the next weakest member. 

The euro was a bad idea from the start (although great if you're travelling around Europe!). How a country like Greece (or Spain/Italy/Portugal) ever imagined they would have the productivity gains to be able to compete against Germany, France and the Benelux countries is beyond me. Even worse than that, to prop up those industries that were being screwed by the lack of competitiveness they issued debt in a currency they couldn't control.

Reap what you sow, I guess.


----------



## RandR (22 September 2011)

slightly off topic, but anyone know if there is any chance of sourcing live or 20 min delayed volume data for the asx 200 for free ? 

I use comsec as a broker, unfortunately they dont have delayed volume along with the daily XJO chart.


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> How do you think the Greeks would react if they don't get supported and have massive upheaval and Spain or Italy or France r Germany get help because they are more likely to cause a bigger problem?????




Send in the Spartans and march towards Berlin?

What can they do?


----------



## Chasero (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Why on earth are you STILL holding?
> Why havent you sold and waiting for a bottoming.
> Why are you not short?




How do you go short? I only trade using e-trade!

I am thinking of holding it for 1-2 years more, maybe it will recover!?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (22 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> How do you go short? I only trade using e-trade!
> 
> I am thinking of holding it for 1-2 years more, maybe it will recover!?




If you didn't pick the perfect spot to go long, what makes you think you can pick the exact spot to go short with any more certainty.

If you were planning to hold for a few years, and you had conducted enough analysis to give you confidence in the businesses long term outlook, why are you freaking out today.

In Investing emotions are your enemy, you need to approach the stockmarket with complete equanimity, rises should not thrill you just as falls should not upset you.


----------



## Chasero (22 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> If you didn't pick the perfect spot to go long, what makes you think you can pick the exact spot to go short with any more certainty.
> 
> If you were planning to hold for a few years, and you had conducted enough analysis to give you confidence in the businesses long term outlook, why are you freaking out today.
> 
> In Investing emotions are your enemy, you need to approach the stockmarket with complete equanimity, rises should not thrill you just as falls should not upset you.




I am freaking out because this Greek crisis is never going to end!!!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (22 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I am freaking out because this Greek crisis is never going to end!!!




"this to shall pass away"

Every thing comes to an end, Every good day and every bad day. Every Bull rally and bear market end.


----------



## Chasero (22 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> "this to shall pass away"
> 
> Every thing comes to an end, Every good day and every bad day. Every Bull rally and bear market end.




Thanks, I think I needed that reassurance today.

Now can someone please threaten to bomb Greece unless they get their act together??

ONLY Jokes! (not really)


----------



## skyQuake (22 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> If you didn't pick the perfect spot to go long, what makes you think you can pick the exact spot to go short with any more certainty.




Because almost any spot is a good place to short in a bear mkt!


----------



## stu192 (22 September 2011)

Chasero,
Learn about put warrants. pretty much the same as shorting (a bit riskier).....and can be done through all brokers, as it's just like buying shares.


----------



## Struzball (22 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Meh.... the cat will bounce for sure.




Probably, but I don't think it will go higher than today, and it will come from a much lower place.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (22 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Because almost any spot is a good place to short in a bear mkt!




Not if your a skittish, person and place a short today and then panic on a rally tomorrow and have to close out at a loss.

You can lose placing Bullish Bets in a Bull market and Bearish Bets in a Bear market if you watch the market to closely and make rash emotional decisions.

I mean How often do you see people here state multiple reasons that a certain company is wonderful and can sustain through various economic cycles and that they are long term investors, then suddenly they are gripped with panic on days like today.

If you are a trader, Trade.

If you are an investor, Invest.

Stick to your plan is all I am saying.


----------



## Chasero (22 September 2011)

Does anyone know why Lynas Corp jumped off a cliff today?!! It lost 25% in 2 days!!! 

And I will probably not touch the share market... for now.. (this week). Too volatile for my heart


----------



## wayneL (22 September 2011)

stu192 said:


> Chasero,
> Learn about put warrants. pretty much the same as shorting (a bit riskier).....and can be done through all brokers, as it's just like buying shares.




Warrants suck.

If you want to do these types of derivatives, options are far superior.


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Does anyone know why Lynas Corp jumped off a cliff today?!! It lost 25% in 2 days!!!
> 
> And I will probably not touch the share market... for now.. (this week). Too volatile for my heart




Seen the LYC thread? Frankly LYC's performance is not that different to many resource stocks.

KZL -18%
*LYC -14%*
PNA -11%
CPL -10.4%
PDN -9%
ILU -8.5%
MGX -8.4%
IGO -8.4%

Even RIO is down 6.5% and what was their earning? $15B?

Of the worst performing 30 shares on the ASX200, 29 of them were miners or mining services...


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Stick to your plan is all I am saying.




On the proviso that the plan actually works.


----------



## Chasero (22 September 2011)

Oh I see.. just had a look!

I'll research more about options/put warrants as well!


----------



## LostMyShirt (22 September 2011)

Todays market was expensive.

I wonder if there is any relief in sight 

Well tomorrow is not going to be any better as the main Euro markets have tanked as well... Will have to wait and see for the DOW, though I don't think it is going to be pretty.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (22 September 2011)

skc said:


> On the proviso that the plan actually works.




Yes. Offcourse.


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2011)

Euroland is delightfully *UGLY*


----------



## LifeChoices (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Euroland is delightfully *UGLY*




Oh yes. 

Looks like some decent capitulation may happen on the asx tomorrow. I'm almost getting a bit blazae about waking up depressed about seeing red every day - even the odd bits of green I've seen this month has been tainted with someone else's blood.


----------



## PinguPingu (22 September 2011)

Weeeeee

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRlj5vjp3Ko&feature=player_detailpage#t=32s


----------



## drsmith (22 September 2011)

This is it I reckon.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...chinese-slowdown/story-e6frgah6-1226143679123

Over the next fortnight, equity merkets will tank, the RBA will cut interest rates and Julia Gillard's prime-ministership will be over.

Disclaimer:
Gut feeling only. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.


----------



## LifeChoices (22 September 2011)

drsmith said:


> This is it I reckon.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...chinese-slowdown/story-e6frgah6-1226143679123
> 
> ...


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2011)

Awesomandy said:


> Times such as now are the moments of truth - does my strategy make sense? Am I investing/trading at the risk level that I'm comfortable with? Am I following my plan with discipline? If you can answer yes to all 3 questions, then you probably wouldn't even be reading this "panic" thread.




Most don't have any idea if the way they are trading has a positive expectancy
Let alone have a blue print which gives them max known peak to valley drawdown over the last 15 or so years.
They have a strategy that " makes sense " to them but with no known foundation of a proven track record.

This statement like many plans sounds great but Doesn't go far enough.


----------



## Struzball (22 September 2011)




----------



## Tyler Durden (22 September 2011)

I love it. It means there's a sale on.


----------



## RandR (22 September 2011)

XJO = 3700 tomorrow ?

and will it hold there ? ... or keep tumbling ....


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> I love it. It means there's a sale on.




This is the worst analogy ever. But you will often see it in the media from idiots like David Koch.

When there is a sale on in the shops, the benefits you can derive from the products remain the same.

When there is a 'sale' on the stock market, the benefits you can derive from the 'products' are probably no longer the same.


----------



## Tyler Durden (22 September 2011)

skc said:


> This is the worst analogy ever. But you will often see it in the media from idiots like David Koch.
> 
> When there is a sale on in the shops, the benefits you can derive from the products remain the same.
> 
> When there is a 'sale' on the stock market, the benefits you can derive from the 'products' are probably no longer the same.




But doesn't that assume that market sentiment is always right?


----------



## Boggo (22 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Most don't have any idea if the way they are trading has a positive expectancy
> Let alone have a blue print which gives them max known peak to valley drawdown over the last 15 or so years.
> They have a strategy that " makes sense " to them but with no known foundation of a proven track record.
> 
> This statement like many plans sounds great but Doesn't go far enough.




Some amazingly silly comments appearing (apart from the "a bargain at these prices" thrill-seekers who never cease to amaze) in a number of threads at the moment, pretty well confirms what you are saying tech/a.

Looks like the PEN pushers are on holidays though, very quiet over there


----------



## Dowdy (22 September 2011)

Historically, crashes tend to occur in OCT. 

Looks like history repeats itself, once again


----------



## skc (22 September 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> But doesn't that assume that market sentiment is always right?




Market sentiment is market sentiment and there is no right or wrong per se.

Market prices are not always right that's for sure.

But my point was that the 'Stocks for sale' analogy is misleading as it assumes the products are the same, leaving people ignorant of the fact that fundamentals have changed. 

The commodities are absolutely hammered tonight... all the miners will be "On Sale" tomorrow. But is that miner still getting the same income?


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Euroland is delightfully *FUGLY*




Corrected 

And as we will all know by now, so is the US.

Panic officially reinstated?


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> Corrected
> 
> And as we will all know by now, so is the US.
> 
> Panic officially reinstated?




Naaah. What "crash"? HUGE 136pt rebound in DOW in the last 45 mins. WAS down 527pts....

SPI 200 only down 75pts.

AU$ recovered back to US$97.6c

What's to worry about? 

Oh yeah.... the bus-sized satellite "crashing" back to planet Mirth in the next 48 hrs or so. Now isn't that the ultimate irony?? "The sky's falling....!!!" - blame it all on the space junk!


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Naaah. What "crash"? HUGE 136pt rebound in DOW in the last 45 mins. WAS down 527pts....




Nobody gives the PPT any kudos any more. 

:::


----------



## Uncle Festivus (23 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> Nobody gives the PPT any kudos any more.
> 
> :::




It got changed to 'The Presidents Working Party To Fix Everything' - right on Q as per directive - very rarely does the DOW stay below the magic figure of -400 on the day, ie always gets mysteriously bid back up? When even this fails they/we are in big trouble.......?


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 September 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> It got changed to 'The Presidents Working Party To Fix Everything' - right on Q as per directive - very rarely does the DOW stay below the magic figure of -400 on the day, ie always gets mysteriously bid back up? When even this fails they/we are in big trouble.......?




Forget the Pres....

What The World Needs Now Is.....

[size=+2]Wayne Swan - _World's Best Treasurer!_[/size]

Imagine how much better off we would all be if he was invited to run the World economy?

*sigh*


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Forget the Pres....
> 
> What The World Needs Now Is.....
> 
> ...




Yay!

Stimulus cheques for all!:


----------



## skc (23 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> Corrected
> 
> And as we will all know by now, so is the US.
> 
> Panic officially reinstated?




wayne stop downramping the market... state your intent. Why are you posting here? You don't even hold any stock. You are just talking down the market so you can buy some cheap shares. Were you the one who told Bernanke not to print that $1T we need?

Everybody just need to hold tight. You only realise a loss when you sell. If you never sell, and leave the shares to your children, you will never realise a loss in your lifetime (and your children own the shares at a much lower capital cost).



Aussiejeff said:


> Oh yeah.... the bus-sized satellite "crashing" back to planet Mirth in the next 48 hrs or so. Now isn't that the ultimate irony?? "The sky's falling....!!!" - blame it all on the space junk!




I am even more confident today than ever, that the Martians are coming to bail us out.

Any moment now. May be they are hitching a ride on that crashed satellite...


----------



## TheAbyss (23 September 2011)

skc said:


> wayne stop downramping the market... state your intent. Why are you posting here? You don't even hold any stock. You are just talking down the market so you can buy some cheap shares. Were you the one who told Bernanke not to print that $1T we need?
> 
> Everybody just need to hold tight. You only realise a loss when you sell. If you never sell, and leave the shares to your children, you will never realise a loss in your lifetime (and your children own the shares at a much lower capital cost).
> 
> ...




US/ Euro Treasury's can't fix this as they are all out of cash (with the odd exception such as Germany who are not going to spend their savings to bail out another counrty without a fight) and tools such as bonds  etc have been massaged to do what they can but they are done now. USA are flat out fixing their own backyard so Eurozone is on its own (hey that rhymes).

Now it is up to Govt's to change and provide a solution so we are in for a world of hurt until they show some leadership and a solution. It will take at least a year for any potential solution to prove itself so cant see anything other than the ongoing +/- 3% swings that we have been seeing for a while now once everyone swallows the news and stops selling everything they own.

Totally 100% cash and wondering what sector to look at first for a short term bounce, any suggestions?


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2011)

skc said:


> You don't even hold any stock.




Actually, I do.

I am using options around a base holding in a share accumulation strategy. 

I have long since extracted my original capital and building holdings as opportunity arises.


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> Actually, I do.
> 
> I am using options around a base holding in a share accumulation strategy.
> 
> I have long since extracted my original capital and building holdings as opportunity arises.




Not that they'll be worth anything...


----------



## tech/a (23 September 2011)

> any suggestions?




Shorts!!!
Been advocating that strategy for months.
Just look for corrections to resistance.


----------



## wayneL (23 September 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> US/ Euro Treasury's can't fix this as they are all out of cash



Who says?






> any suggestions?




Buy a wheelbarrow.


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

What's the chances of us finishing in the green today?


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> What's the chances of us finishing in the green today?




50/50.

Any help?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> What's the chances of us finishing in the green today?




That would be nice, They say a change is as good as a holiday .

I have long since given up on predicting the daily direction, anything I say would only be a guess, But I am right 50% of the time.

So far I have 1 green, "please sir, can I have some more"


----------



## LostMyShirt (23 September 2011)

Haha! I love this thread. It puts a smile on my face during these dismal times.

Skc - My kids aint getting squat - got none. The only one who will realize a loss is me, IF I sell - which I won't 

We need Swan and some Geese...


----------



## Tekwrek (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> What's the chances of us finishing in the green today?




Zilch


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> What's the chances of us finishing in the green today?






Tekwrek said:


> Zilch




While remote, I wouldn't say zilch at this stage, going to depend on how Asia decides to play today.

The price action isn't as promising as I would have hoped, was looking so a stepping stone trend but so far the SPI keeps getting beat down at resistance at 3930. If we can break that area with the help of Asia we are a chance imo.


----------



## skc (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> While remote, I wouldn't say zilch at this stage, going to depend on how Asia decides to play today.
> 
> The price action isn't as promising as I would have hoped, was looking so a stepping stone trend but so far the SPI keeps getting beat down at resistance at 3930. If we can break that area with the help of Asia we are a chance imo.




I think we will rally a bit but probably close weak in the last hour or so. It is a Friday afterall.


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

skc said:


> I think we will rally a bit but probably close weak in the last hour or so. It is a Friday afterall.




I actually think if we rally strongly we could see a close around the highs, if we fade though it could be ugly.


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

Price action is not looking convincing atm. HSI opens in about 3 mins so we will see what that brings.


----------



## skc (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I actually think if we rally strongly we could see a close around the highs, if we fade though it could be ugly.


----------



## G-Zilla (23 September 2011)

lol standard "nothing to fear", "no need to panic", "your super is safe longterm"... crap from the government on the weekend... 

I think the poster who mentioned ASX dead and Gillard gone within the next little while are on the money.


Remember Greece or another hasn't defaulted yet! QE3 buy the end of year!


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

Hahaha 300 point reversal on the HSI in 35min and about 50 points on the SPI.


----------



## skc (23 September 2011)

skc said:


>




Fail whale retracted...


----------



## Chasero (23 September 2011)

Wow!!

Positive today! Who would've guessed! Go CBA! WOO


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 September 2011)

Certainly enough trampolines deployed at the moment but the building isn't empty yet.


----------



## vkdirector (23 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Wow!!
> 
> Positive today! Who would've guessed! Go CBA! WOO





Still got 1 3/4 hours to go yet


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> What's the chances of us finishing in the green today?






skc said:


> I think we will rally a bit but probably close weak in the last hour or so. It is a Friday afterall.




Arvo fade in, looks like you were right again:bowdown::


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Hahaha 300 point reversal on the HSI in 35min and about 50 points on the SPI.




Haha nice to know the HSI hasn't changed much then  you trading it?


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha nice to know the HSI hasn't changed much then  you trading it?




Yeah. Been good times lately.

What've you been up too?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Yeah. Been good times lately.
> 
> What've you been up too?




I'll send you a PM, save clogging up the thread.


----------



## skc (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Arvo fade in, looks like you were right again:bowdown::




I had no idea what's going on today. I deployed, retracted and reployed the fail whale graphics about 25 times. And made a grand total of 2pts from trading the index. At least my pairs trade account went from -1% to +0.2%... 

It was a different sort of volatile day that's for sure. Most industrials and financials turned pretty green after lunch, but the materials were still well down. Then as if someone remembered that Australia is in recession except for the miners and we rolled over again. Or, may be just that the calming effect from the G-20 statement has only a life of ~2 hours.


----------



## Chasero (23 September 2011)

OMG!

Down she goes! Why is this happening?!! At least I think CBA will stay up today.

Finishing the week below 4000!! oh no!


----------



## nomore4s (23 September 2011)

Hahahah, everything has gone nuts in the last 30mins.

HSI has put on nearly 300 points and AUD, Gold, Oil all rallying as well.

Green night overseas anyone?


----------



## LostMyShirt (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Hahahah, everything has gone nuts in the last 30mins.
> 
> HSI has put on nearly 300 points and AUD, Gold, Oil all rallying as well.
> 
> Green night overseas anyone?




Could be a bit of buying pressure in EU tonight since it tanked so badly yesterday there may very well be a fair amount of buyers - then again the selling may continue though one would think that the size of the drop yesterday would indicate sellers got all that excitment out of their systems.


----------



## skc (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Hahahah, everything has gone nuts in the last 30mins.
> 
> HSI has put on nearly 300 points and AUD, Gold, Oil all rallying as well.
> 
> Green night overseas anyone?




By the time you finished typing, it has retraced half again.


----------



## Ves (23 September 2011)

What was market volume like today?


----------



## barney (23 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Hahahah, everything has gone nuts in the last 30mins.
> 
> HSI has put on nearly 300 points and AUD, Gold, Oil all rallying as well.
> 
> *Green night overseas anyone*?




Good to see someone is laughing NM4s:


At some point prior to the US open I think the retailers will be enticed to take on some more short positions   .....

Then they will get the crap squeezed out of those short positions leading into the open  ...

Then the Dow will drop 200-300 in rapid fire to finish the week  ..... ready for a rise next week 

A bit like the chart if it all goes as planned


----------



## LostMyShirt (23 September 2011)

The rest of the markets in EU are on a soft note, except the Swiss market which has tanked quite a bit... I'm trying to figure out why...


----------



## Auslad (23 September 2011)

There seems to be a confluence of events which seem to happening from today and into next week and they are:

1. Financial

Euro and US banks are on very shaky grounds and it would not be surprising if a couple of the large banks go under. 

2. Military Situation.

It is reported that most militaries around the world are on heightened state of alert.

The Countries involved are all middle eastern countries including Israel which has called up its reserves in the last 3 days which is not a good sign. There could be a problem between Turkey and Greece in the Mediterranean.

On Monday, 26th September, it has been reported that the US Military will actually go on to a Defcon 1 Exercise and this was reported by the Russian Chief of Staff. It will happen when Obama is Denver.

Today in Denver, Fema and the US Military are conducting a joint exercise.

3. Celestial Events

There has been a lot of speculation about Comet Elenin on the internet. Apparently it will be between the Sun and the Earth on Monday, 26th September, 2011. The last time there was an alignment, was the exact day when there was an earthquake in Japan. 

A research company called marketsdna.com is calling for the markets to fall through the floor on Monday 26th September, based on the Elenin Alignment.

Very interesting times for all of us in the week ahead.


----------



## barney (23 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> The rest of the markets in EU are on a soft note, except the Swiss market which has tanked quite a bit... I'm trying to figure out why...




Swiss hadn't been hammered to the same degree to this point ... just catching up.


Shorts being enticed on the Euro Indexes atm  ..... (Dax and FTSE should turn prior to the US)   The swings should be very wide tonight ........... the long play coming up shortly prior to US open later 2nite should be exponential


----------



## LostMyShirt (23 September 2011)

barney said:


> Swiss hadn't been hammered to the same degree to this point ... just catching up.
> 
> 
> Shorts being enticed on the Euro Indexes atm  ..... (Dax and FTSE should turn prior to the US)   The swings should be very wide tonight ........... the long play coming up shortly prior to US open later 2nite should be exponential




Yes, good point.

Does anyone have an idea of why Gold is getting hammered as well as the stocks? I thought that uncertainty within stocks drives investors to safe havens.


----------



## IFocus (23 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Yes, good point.
> 
> Does anyone have an idea of why Gold is getting hammered as well as the stocks? I thought that uncertainty within stocks drives investors to safe havens.




Gold is considered a safe haven by the mainstream talking heads its actually not a big enough market to take any serious funds current safe haven is still US treasury issue.


----------



## IFocus (23 September 2011)

Auslad said:


> 2. Military Situation.
> 
> It is reported that most militaries around the world are on heightened state of alert.
> 
> ...




There has never been a sovereign default without a war or military dictatorship........


----------



## Struzball (23 September 2011)

As I said last night...


----------



## Chasero (23 September 2011)

Rally Tuesday anyone?

The politicians are scrambling to calm the markets! Bulls are going to buy next week I'm sure!


----------



## LostMyShirt (24 September 2011)

Wow the EU swung up some of those losses - the markets everywhere. The DOW seems to be lacking in volume. No conviction from traders - having fun on the sidelines I suppose...


----------



## LifeChoices (24 September 2011)

I bought myself two of those air swimmers today - the clown fish and the shark. http://www.airswimmers.com

With gold and silver stuffed, I'm converting the few shares I have left in the market to cash and will watch on the sidelines while playing with my remote controlled fish. Hoping that this whole mess will resolve itself.

Good luck everybody.


----------



## robusta (24 September 2011)

The thing that has caught me out with this recent rout is we knew all these dramas existed 6 months ago when the ASX was heading towards 5000.

Back then the Greeks were stuffed, China was overheating, Japan, US, Europe had massive debt, politicians everywhere were useless....

What has changed? , What new information has come to light?

I thought to low point would come when the US congress debt ceiling standoff was being played out a couple of months ago and started investind accordingly. Nexy time I hope to show more patience to take advantage of the rollercoaster.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 September 2011)

The market is a funny beast, when you are sure it is going to tank it will often surprise by going up.

Everything though points towards a collapse. A recovery depends on the Europeans going to work and actually working; the Americans pulling their heads in on debt, waste and militarism; and the Chinese behaving themselves by devaluing their currency, obeying trade rules and being good global citizens.

One or two is possible, but all three, I doubt.

gg


----------



## tech/a (25 September 2011)

With the IMF now declaring they will support all and any debt issue in the Euopean union expect bullishness to return.

*I also note they are strongly encouraging nations to put in place a CARBON TAX
As they have seen how amazing it can be to raise BILLIONS with no real cost to the government.It does nothing but raise massive funds.*

What an amazing silver bullet!


----------



## wayneL (25 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> With the IMF now declaring they will support all and any debt issue in the Euopean union expect bullishness to return.
> 
> *I also note they are strongly encouraging nations to put in place a CARBON TAX
> As they have seen how amazing it can be to raise BILLIONS with no real cost to the government.It does nothing but raise massive funds.*
> ...




What next?

An Oxygen tax?

Which will of course also apply to H2*O*.

How about a Bullsh!t tax? We could rake it in from politicians and bankers.


----------



## Muschu (25 September 2011)

Somebody, supposedly in authority, out there says something positive and we get a "rally".  

Another authority makes a more cautionary remark and we head south again.

Best to just watch I feel.  [In my case anyway].


----------



## Tysonboss1 (25 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> Somebody, supposedly in authority, out there says something positive and we get a "rally".
> 
> Another authority makes a more cautionary remark and we head south again.
> 
> Best to just watch I feel.  [In my case anyway].




I thought the market was effient, ...... Ha, not likely


----------



## LostMyShirt (25 September 2011)

I agree with Wayne.

I know that we will soon pay for the air we breath - however at this time we are only paying for the air we breath _out_.

Yeah, Carbon Tax _will_ raise billions - at the expense of the consumer. We get tax breaks? Why should we pay in the first palce?

Rick62; it is all just one giant game. Fear mongering while the big boys jump in make some money.


----------



## Muschu (25 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> .........  Rick62; it is all just one giant game. Fear mongering while the big boys jump in make some money.




Of course it is a game and a gamble.  I'm just not a player right now, that's all.  If anyone here knows what's coming out of Europe this week then let then speak now and forever ...


----------



## LostMyShirt (25 September 2011)

Just finished reading the weekender. 

What's the go with this G20 summit? Good news on the horizon?

Promises of bullish returns


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Yeah, Carbon Tax _will_ raise billions - at the expense of the consumer. We get tax breaks? Why should we pay in the first palce?



There is a price to pay for everything man makes. The individual abdicates this responsibility to the tribal leaders when in fact it is of their own (unbeknownst or ignorant) making.


----------



## FreshTrader (25 September 2011)

What's everyone expecting, drop Monday then light rally Tuesday?  What's the general consensus?


----------



## skyQuake (25 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> What's everyone expecting, drop Monday then light rally Tuesday?  What's the general consensus?




Looks fairly decent for Monday. Bull bias this week imo


----------



## Starcraftmazter (26 September 2011)

Surprised this hasn't been posted here yet:



> European officials are working on a grand plan to restore confidence in the single currency area that would involve a massive bank recapitalisation, giving the bail-out fund several trillion euros of firepower, and a possible Greek default.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html

...but not until November. October is going to be insane.


----------



## Aussiejeff (26 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Surprised this hasn't been posted here yet:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Ahhh, yes!

_"The best laid plans of mice and men...."_ so the old saying goes...

Question is, are we being led by mice or men?


----------



## tech/a (26 September 2011)

The way I see it.

3 Trillion to plug the flow and avert default dominos.
So the situation is serious.
However the bandaid then applied to both the US and then the Eurozone
Means that if internal structures and return to growth DOESN'T occur then 
There will be no where to run.

Then there is the issue of the 3 trillion who is going to pay that back?
How and when?


----------



## satanoperca (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Then there is the issue of the 3 trillion who is going to pay that back?
> How and when?




Paying back debt hasn't been a concern for the last decade why would it start to be now?

Which ever path the world leaders take us down it is very hard to see any upside until the issue of excessive debt is controlled and eventually paid down. Think this may be more than just a couple of years.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (26 September 2011)

Its* OK *

Ive got it!


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Its* OK *
> 
> Ive got it!




The EU declare 'everything is OK'. 

30 seconds later...




(Thankfully Tech/a can swim!)


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Then there is the issue of the 3 trillion who is going to pay that back?
> How and when?




No need, They attended some seminars back in the 90's on neg gearing, they have it all under control.


----------



## notting (26 September 2011)

Interesting the Gold is being belted so hard.
Could have a bottom in place for the moment whilst they manage a Greek default and put off the rest for some time.


----------



## prawn_86 (26 September 2011)

Just half watched something on the BAC over the weekend comparing the US and EUR's response to Argentina's back when they defualted. 

US and EUR focused on top down, giving tax payer funds to banks in the hope they would be reasonable (yeh right).

Whereas Argentina focused on improving exports and raising the minimum wage so more people would have more money to spend


----------



## skc (26 September 2011)

Commodities are being smashed to the centre of the earth (will probably punch a whole to China soon), plenty of profitable resource producers priced back into the <$1 category. Former market darlings are being spat out like a bad throat inflamation... LYC is now 87c.

I am very surprised to see financials in the green... perhaps there's a bit of switching from materials to the fins from funds that stay invested. 

Today feels even more bearish than last week if that is actually possible.


----------



## VSntchr (26 September 2011)

skc said:


> Commodities are being smashed to the centre of the earth (will probably punch a whole to China soon), plenty of profitable resource producers priced back into the <$1 category. Former market darlings are being spat out like a bad throat inflamation... LYC is now 87c.
> 
> I am very surprised to see financials in the green... perhaps there's a bit of switching from materials to the fins from funds that stay invested.
> 
> Today feels even more bearish than last week if that is actually possible.




Ive noticed a few tech stocks getting smashed too...DTL, SMX, OKN(was down more earlier)


----------



## VSntchr (26 September 2011)

A lot of dividend payment dates occur over the next month or so...
Wonder how much of it will be reinvested and how much will be put elsewhere....


----------



## nomore4s (26 September 2011)

skc said:


> Today feels even more bearish than last week if that is actually possible.




Agree, everything is getting smashed atm, crude contract has lost nearly $3  since about 8am today.

My guess is it could be ugly tonight.


----------



## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

My portfolio took even more of a beating today.

The market has no remorse. Even though the stocks have very strong fundamentals, the stock still gets beaten. So what bloody hope is there for investors anymore? Share market gambling - one massive game. You have to be inside to win it...


----------



## VSntchr (26 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> My portfolio took even more of a beating today.
> 
> The market has no remorse. Even though the stocks have very strong fundamentals, the stock still gets beaten. So what bloody hope is there for investors anymore? Share market gambling - one massive game. You have to be inside to win it...




Fundamental investing requires looong time-frames...


----------



## RandR (26 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Agree, everything is getting smashed atm, crude contract has lost nearly $3  since about 8am today.
> 
> My guess is it could be ugly tonight.




Not true, CSL and Ramsey Healthcare have been doing pretty splendidly over the last couple of days.


----------



## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

RandR said:


> Not true, CSL, Ramsey Healthcare have been doing pretty splendidly over the last couple of days.




Increased business and healthcare requierments meet higher demand as people suffer heart attacks on a wide scale due to market and economic woes.


----------



## nomore4s (26 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> My portfolio took even more of a beating today.
> 
> The market has no remorse. Even though the stocks have very strong fundamentals, the stock still gets beaten. So what bloody hope is there for investors anymore? Share market gambling - one massive game. You have to be inside to win it...




This is just a ridiculous post. The writing has been on the wall for ages, people have had plenty of warning signs to pull capital out of markets and wait on the sidelines but people refuse to take a small loss and instead watch it turn into a massive loss. Been happening for 100+ years and will no doubt continue to happen. 

Fundamentals mean nothing when the markets are pricing risk into the market, the chart show that we can go lower, hell we are still nowhere near the 2008 lows yet. But people seem to think that because a stock was $50 a months ago it must now be great value at $40 even though the world looks to be heading into a major recession that will have flow on effects to all economies and therefore earning power of all stocks.

Investing/trading is about timing and those patient enough to wait for the signs of recover to show are the ones that will make money, mainly because they will have capital left to invest.


----------



## IFocus (26 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> My portfolio took even more of a beating today.
> 
> The market has no remorse. Even though the stocks have very strong fundamentals, the stock still gets beaten. So what bloody hope is there for investors anymore? Share market gambling - one massive game. You have to be inside to win it...




In this environment the market prices risk not fundamentals.


Aah see Nomore4s has it covered above


----------



## nomore4s (26 September 2011)

RandR said:


> Not true, CSL and Ramsey Healthcare have been doing pretty splendidly over the last couple of days.




lol, sorry I meant futures contracts not individual stocks.


----------



## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> This is just a ridiculous post. The writing has been on the wall for ages, people have had plenty of warning signs to pull capital out of markets and wait on the sidelines but people refuse to take a small loss and instead watch it turn into a massive loss. Been happening for 100+ years and will no doubt continue to happen.
> 
> Fundamentals mean nothing when the markets are pricing risk into the market, the chart show that we can go lower, hell we are still nowhere near the 2008 lows yet. But people seem to think that because a stock was $50 a months ago it must now be great value at $40 even though the world looks to be heading into a major recession that will have flow on effects to all economies and therefore earning power of all stocks.
> 
> Investing/trading is about timing and those patient enough to wait for the signs of recover to show are the ones that will make money, mainly because they will have capital left to invest.




Look you make a good point here and I agree with you however there is nothing rediculous about the post. I understand where you are coming from and agree partially - that is about it.


----------



## notting (26 September 2011)

skc said:


> I am very surprised to see financials in the green... perhaps there's a bit of switching from materials to the fins from funds that stay invested.
> .



I suspect the market has gone from feeling unsure about financial contagion for the near term due to a little more certainty about manageable Greek default and bigger fund to handle the fallout, to now looking at a global recession - hence commodity smashing and financials stabilizing for today!!

If your feeling realy bad the answer is here - http://www.oprah.com/spirit/How-to-Turn-a-Failure-Into-Success  LOL


----------



## tech/a (26 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Look you make a good point here and I agree with you however there is nothing rediculous about the post.
> 
> There are many several long term and fundamental investors out there who would rather ignore this supposed "writing on the wall", as it is common knowledge that markets swing high, swing low.
> 
> ...




My Oh My.

None are as blind as those who cannot see.


----------



## LostMyShirt (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> My Oh My.
> 
> None are as blind as those who cannot see.




Yes but Tech - no one can make a deduction and boast they posess the powers of certainty when they achieve 50% correct deductions... Also I am reffering to specific stocks and not the market as a whole.

My qualm is how it is a stock whose fundamentals are stong, is debtless and yet can take such large hits and turn-arounds to give but one example.

You cannot see the outcome and then critisize the deduction post outcome. Any side of the spectrum can do this - the only contingency is to manage risk - thats all...


----------



## skc (26 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Agree, everything is getting smashed atm, crude contract has lost nearly $3  since about 8am today.
> 
> My guess is it could be ugly tonight.




Silver down another lazy 15% or so.

And what on earth was the SPI doing in the last few minutes?!



notting said:


> I suspect the market has gone from feeling unsure about financial contagion for the near term due to a little more certainty about manageable Greek default and bigger fund to handle the fallout, to now looking at a global recession - hence commodity smashing and financials stabilizing for today!!
> 
> If your feeling realy bad the answer is here - http://www.oprah.com/spirit/How-to-Turn-a-Failure-Into-Success  LOL




You are being optimistic here. Shares actually went up for 2 days after Lehman. The equity market doesn't know how to price a Greece default. 

If there is a mining bust (and looking likely) it might take a few months to filter through when we start to see shipment contracts being nulled, new drilling delayed etc etc. And if the mining money stops flowing, the property market will be in a world of pain, and the financials will not survive either.


----------



## skc (26 September 2011)

This was playing in my head watching the browse today.


----------



## nomore4s (26 September 2011)

skc said:


> And what on earth was the SPI doing in the last few minutes?!




Not sure as I was trading the HSI but by looking at the chart it might have been shorts covering into the close.

HSI is down over 700 points atm.


----------



## notting (26 September 2011)

skc said:


> You are being optimistic here. Shares actually went up for 2 days after Lehman. The equity market doesn't know how to price a Greece default.




I was debating within myself whether to write recession or depression  not too optimistic.  Just commenting on *today's* moves. 

Nice reminders about what happened after Lehman's however - could not remember that.


----------



## nomore4s (26 September 2011)

Everything has rallied a bit, at last. Still not a good lead into the overseas sessions though. Could be an interesting night.


----------



## Aussiejeff (26 September 2011)

Coulda been worse today.....like Thailand's Stock Exchange (SET) - DOWN 7.8% . Check out the plummeting chart link...now THAT'S what I call a tank!! (at least in the 1 year chart - the 5 year chart shows they have gone gangbusters since 2009).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SET:IND


----------



## skc (26 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Everything has rallied a bit, at last. Still not a good lead into the overseas sessions though. Could be an interesting night.




Silver now back up 10% to $30. 

And the mandate of the Fed and ECB were.... price stability!

W.T.F.


----------



## Chasero (26 September 2011)

So... September and October (no doubt) living up to it's reputation.

Just re-name these months to "never go long on shares"


----------



## tech/a (26 September 2011)

Positive day tomorrow.
Think this will be a lengthy return to the positive.


----------



## Chasero (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Positive day tomorrow.
> Think this will be a lengthy return to the positive.




Really? I'm thinking dead cat bounce for 1-2 days then more red...


----------



## skc (26 September 2011)

Europe looked to have peaked for tonight. May be US will pick up the baton and run with it...Not so sure how it will pan out tomorrow. Commodities and precious metals are going crazy at the moment.


----------



## stacks (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Positive day tomorrow.
> Think this will be a lengthy return to the positive.




Just curious on your definition of positive in your post tech?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Then there is the issue of the 3 trillion who is going to pay that back?
> How and when?




Inflation, lots of it.


----------



## Nero64 (26 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Positive day tomorrow.
> Think this will be a lengthy return to the positive.




I have a rule. When the ASX is down at the end and the US and UK futures are down I get out of my long positions. I keep my short positions open. 

Today I bought into WPL and NCM and sold out. Now I see the US and UK markets up and our futures up 80 points. Gold up 50 or so from 1560. I stand to lose more tomorrow as my shorts get squeezed. It's nothing more than a casino. If you're running real time charts and watching them constantly or a big player who moves the market and the crowd follow you then yes you might have a chance. 

When you say positive day tomorrow. The futures rallied 50-60 points before opening today and then it was sold down. The IMF meeting was over the weekend the rallies usually start in Asia and today it fizzled. 

Nothing has been resolved in the IMF meeting. There is talk of a 1.2 trillion bailout fund, but that's all it is, just talk. Greece and the others will still have to pay it back someday. 

It looks like to me large overseas institutions are shorting our biggest miners like WPL, RIO, BHP and NCM. Did they short cover at the end. If they didn't they may be squeezed tomorrow. 

How many of you predicted the market over the last 2 days. Pump and dump. I bet none of you, but some talk like you did. 

Even if we rally there is no follow through. The only people smiling are the brokers and those who shorted 2-3 months ago.


----------



## skyQuake (26 September 2011)

Nero64 said:


> I have a rule. When the ASX is down at the end and the US and UK futures are down I get out of my long positions. I keep my short positions open.
> 
> Today I bought into WPL and NCM and sold out. Now I see the US and UK markets up and our futures up 80 points. Gold up 50 or so from 1560. I stand to lose more tomorrow as my shorts get squeezed. It's nothing more than a casino. If you're running real time charts and watching them constantly or a big player who moves the market and the crowd follow you then yes you might have a chance.
> 
> ...




Or those that bought this arvo 

You don't need to follow every tick and move. Sometimes its best to stay out if you have no idea whats going on


----------



## nomore4s (26 September 2011)

Nero64 said:


> How many of you predicted the market over the last 2 days. Pump and dump. I bet none of you, but some talk like you did.




You don't have to predict the markets to make money you only have to understand how they work.

I agree with Skyquake, nothing wrong with standing aside if you are not sure what's happening. Don't have to be invested all the time.

Also most of the guys I know day trading futures markets are having a very good time of it at the moment with the huge intra-day swings and ranges we are seeing. We have seen that pump and dump pattern quite a few times in the last few weeks - strength early followed by a fade and then a rally in the late arvo session, setting up the early strength for the next day.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2011)

There is a difference.
The IMF have said they are ready and will do whatever it takes to stop any defaults.
They know they have to --- there is no choice.default would mean financial Meltdown which would irrecoverable.

In my opinion upside will be limited to fair value --bargains won't last.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (27 September 2011)

IMF also said they don't have enough money to deal with the bigger problem countries (in Europe).


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 September 2011)

Nero64 said:


> Nothing has been resolved in the IMF meeting. There is talk of a 1.2 trillion bailout fund, but that's all it is, just talk. Greece and the others will still have to pay it back someday.




Actually I don't think they will _have_ to pay it back? Technically they have already defaulted, it's just a matter of _who's_ going to take a haircut & _how_ much pain they are willing to bare & _when_. The haircut contagion is the problem!

As long as the Dow is a world market proxy, we see how it stands? Still looking for a lower high again around 11400 into the week end then go short for support back to 10600? A descending triangle pattern, resolving in a breakdown through 10600. Unless & of course the  central bankers can collectively stick their fingers in the debt dyke for another few weeks....?


----------



## Struzball (27 September 2011)

I still stand by what I said on the 12th September.

I suppose today will be the large bounce, I don't think it will go far, especially considering the recent falls in commodities and perception of China's influence seems to be dwindling.



Struzball said:


> My guess is no bounce tomorrow.
> Continual steady fall over the next week(s), large bounce after that, but not bouncing higher than august 8 lows (4050).
> 
> I don't have much to back that up, anything could happen.


----------



## Chasero (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Rally Tuesday anyone?
> 
> The politicians are scrambling to calm the markets! Bulls are going to buy next week I'm sure!




^

Still think this is going to happen.

Tuesday Wednesday Green day, then red again towards weekend.

I'm surprised if this rally will have strength towards Friday... as all the charts I've seen are trending down. Trending down a lot.


----------



## skc (27 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> There is a difference.
> The IMF have said they are ready and will do whatever it takes to stop any defaults.
> They know they have to --- there is no choice.default would mean financial Meltdown which would irrecoverable.
> 
> In my opinion upside will be limited to fair value --bargains won't last.




An analogy in my mind is... a large ship has hit an iceberg and a few smaller compartments are taking in water. Instead of sealing those compartments the captain is saying open up the larger compartments so the water can be spread around...

I am bearish fundamentally and really haven't seen anything that makes any sense yet in terms of a resolution of the situation. Chances are we will continue to react to various rumours and statements, and hopefully the central bankers will continue to put in 'safety measures' in preparation of default... and pull the plug eventually so the market can actually function.

Technically there's going to be a fair bit of resistance at XJO 4000 which is only another percent higher than what the futures's saying now.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2011)

Dont disagree with much written here.
 +100 on SPI futs open.

Will see how market reacts by how long it stays there!


----------



## nomore4s (27 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Dont disagree with much written here.
> +100 on SPI futs open.
> 
> Will see how market reacts by how long it stays there!




Same pattern so far, strength from overnight sessions followed by a fade.

Would be expecting a small rally when HSI opens and then it will probably depend on what Asia does.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Same pattern so far, strength from overnight sessions followed by a fade.
> 
> Would be expecting a small rally when HSI opens and then it will probably depend on what Asia does.




Been short Futs since near open.


----------



## nomore4s (27 September 2011)

tech/a said:


> Been short Futs since near open.




Yeah me too, got about 15 points.

Rally was a bit early but and probably stronger then I thought but......


----------



## notting (27 September 2011)

Strong Volumes on this day rally unlike the last day rally.


----------



## tech/a (27 September 2011)

nomore4s said:


> Yeah me too, got about 15 points.
> 
> Rally was a bit early but and probably stronger then I thought but......




4 X 2 on trailing stop.
Was a lot more!
Too busy but thats life.


----------



## alexc2005 (27 September 2011)

notting said:


> Strong Volumes on this day rally unlike the last day rally.




Strong volumes, but each rally day we have seems to recover less and less of previous days losses.

Fail.


----------



## Chasero (27 September 2011)

I'm calling it.

Lynas to rebound to $1.20 before heading towards 70c... 

Cochlear dejavu?


----------



## skc (27 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Strong volumes, but each rally day we have seems to recover less and less of previous days losses.
> 
> Fail.




That's what makes a down trend... lower highers, lower lows.


----------



## FreshTrader (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I'm calling it.
> 
> Lynas to rebound to $1.20 before heading towards 70c...
> 
> Cochlear dejavu?




$1.20, when do you expect this to happen?  LYC has already rebounded by 22% today.  Expecting more aggresive growth?


----------



## Chasero (27 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> $1.20, when do you expect this to happen?  LYC has already rebounded by 22% today.  Expecting more aggresive growth?




That's what i think MIGHT happen over the next few days. Basing it on the assumption that this is a dead cat bounce, and general trend is downwards. (depends on news of course over the next few days)

Take it with a grain of salt.


----------



## Struzball (27 September 2011)

Nearly stayed below 4050 all day.

I didn't expect that jump at the very end.  What was that about?


----------



## Nero64 (27 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Or those that bought this arvo
> 
> You don't need to follow every tick and move. Sometimes its best to stay out if you have no idea whats going on




Buying in yesterday when our market finished 50 points down and the FTSE and DOW futures down is just pure luck. No skill, just blind guesing. The same guessing that has lead to people buying at 6800 in 2007 and 5050 earlier in the year and then holding on. 

In fact the DOW last night looked like it was going down mid morning then it staged a rapid advanced. 

The market did well today. Maybe I should've bought in as we head towards 6800 again.


----------



## Chasero (27 September 2011)

Wow. I'm guessing a lot of people think we have bottom yesterday/Friday!

Who knows! The rally today was huge!


----------



## PinguPingu (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> That's what i think MIGHT happen over the next few days. Basing it on the assumption that this is a dead cat bounce, and general trend is downwards. (depends on news of course over the next few days)
> 
> Take it with a grain of salt.




Lynas just cut its giant fall in half...in one day. By the end of the week it could be back around $1.60-70 or down at 50c. Who knows these days.


----------



## Chasero (27 September 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> Lynas just cut its giant fall in half...in one day. By the end of the week it could be back around $1.60-70 or down at 50c. Who knows these days.




It's on a very springy trampoline


----------



## Struzball (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Wow. I'm guessing a lot of people think we have bottom yesterday/Friday!
> 
> Who knows! The rally today was huge!




It was _A_ bottom, yes, that's what makes today's action a bounce.


----------



## nulla nulla (27 September 2011)

European markets open:

FTSE 100 England +112.46 +2.21% 5,201.83 4:13am ET 
DAX Germany +180.33 +3.37% 5,525.89 4:13am ET 

DJIA futures as at 6:44pm Sydney Time +89

I suspect that the "panic tanking" might be on hold again tomorrow. This morning I thought that the xao would recover yesterdays losses and maybe a bit more, topping out arround +90 before fading back. Never expected 135. Nice finish.


----------



## Billyb (27 September 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> *Who knows these days*.




That pretty much sums it up.


----------



## FreshTrader (27 September 2011)

Chasero, looks like you were right in predicting LYC's high, not sure where the price will go from here.

Just wishing (as everyone probably is) that I'd bought some LYC shares yesterday.  Finished up 35% higher than yesterday!!!   Could have taken one hell of a holiday with a capital growth such as that in ONE day  

If LYC shares get to 50c I will definitely be jumping on board.  However, who knows what the rest of the week will bring...


----------



## skyQuake (27 September 2011)

Nero64 said:


> Buying in yesterday when our market finished 50 points down and the FTSE and DOW futures down is just pure luck. No skill, just blind guesing. The same guessing that has lead to people buying at 6800 in 2007 and 5050 earlier in the year and then holding on.
> 
> In fact the DOW last night looked like it was going down mid morning then it staged a rapid advanced.
> 
> The market did well today. Maybe I should've bought in as we head towards 6800 again.




Not blind guessing at all. If you'd paid attention to some of the stocks being sold down, it felt like relentless liquidation. Ditto for gold. Banks were up so you'd know it was only crap that was being sold off, rather than a general downmove.

Then again you could have bought this morning. fwiw futures started to turn up after the aussie close. (DOW futs were down cause Hong Kong and Aus were down) Commodities and global futs all rallied thru the UK session.


----------



## Chasero (27 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Chasero, looks like you were right in predicting LYC's high, not sure where the price will go from here.
> 
> Just wishing (as everyone probably is) that I'd bought some LYC shares yesterday.  Finished up 35% higher than yesterday!!!   Could have taken one hell of a holiday with a capital growth such as that in ONE day
> 
> If LYC shares get to 50c I will definitely be jumping on board.  However, who knows what the rest of the week will bring...




A lot of the charts are saying that since we broke the 4,000 level, shares are most likely to rally upwards to 4,200-4,300 again.

I still think it's too risky to even attempt to trade and hold overnight with shares such as LYC, even though i THINK it'll rally more tomorrow. (Maybe even to the end of this week!?)

I tend to be more realistic. Bear markets have huge swings and I'm not going to be caught on the wrong side of one. I'm not that much of a risk taker


----------



## Muschu (27 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Not blind guessing at all. ......Then again you could have bought this morning. fwiw futures started to turn up after the aussie close. (DOW futs were down cause Hong Kong and Aus were down) Commodities and global futs all rallied thru the UK session.




Very difficult to talk to any long time frame atm.  Tomorrow looks OK.  After that???


----------



## McCoy Pauley (27 September 2011)

There is a very convincing article in yesterday's Eureka Report that suggests that the Australian indices are on the precipice of a very steep bear market decline and rallies like today should be taken advantage of to lighten holdings in equities.

The article had charts, candles and everything.


----------



## PinguPingu (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> I still think it's too risky to even attempt to trade and hold overnight with shares such as LYC, even though i THINK it'll rally more tomorrow. (Maybe even to the end of this week!?)




Heh, I doubled by LYC holdings and bought in yesterday in the low 90c range - average price about $1.30 now. Of course, there's no way I'd be doing this if I was anywhere near retirement age. 

Anyway, Italy's sold a nice chunk of debt and Gold, Oil and US futures are up. It's like the skies just cleared again, but for how long will this mood last


----------



## Muschu (27 September 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> There is a very convincing article in yesterday's Eureka Report that suggests that the Australian indices are on the precipice of a very steep bear market decline and rallies like today should be taken advantage of to lighten holdings in equities.
> 
> The article had charts, candles and everything.




I think we had a seasoned poster here suggesting the market will trade sideways for some time.   That does not appear to be an uncommon view. 

Plus there have been suggestions to sell into strength.... [No issues with that]

I am not a risky trader, am probably older than most ASF subscribers, and there seems to be nothing definitive [in fact the contrary] coming out of Europe.

I also take particular note of ASF subscribers who acknowledge not having found the perfect path.  Those who infer consistent success should perhaps take over the IMF....... as Step 1.


----------



## Tyler Durden (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Rally Tuesday anyone?
> 
> The politicians are scrambling to calm the markets! Bulls are going to buy next week I'm sure!




Spot on.


----------



## LifeChoices (27 September 2011)

Muschu said:


> I think we had a seasoned poster here suggesting the market will trade sideways for some time.   That does not appear to be an uncommon view.
> 
> Plus there have been suggestions to sell into strength.... [No issues with that]
> 
> ...




Ahh, what are you so worried about... Europe is all fixed up now. Why else is the market skyrocketing towards 5,000? 

If tomorrow is anything like today, you'll have easy pickings. Do you really want to miss out on all the bargains?


----------



## stacks (27 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> A lot of the charts are saying that since we broke the 4,000 level, shares are most likely to rally upwards to 4,200-4,300 again.
> 
> I still think it's too risky to even attempt to trade and hold overnight with shares such as LYC, even though i THINK it'll rally more tomorrow. (Maybe even to the end of this week!?)
> 
> I tend to be more realistic. Bear markets have huge swings and I'm not going to be caught on the wrong side of one. I'm not that much of a risk taker




Care to post some of your charting analysis? Or do you mean some other peoples analysis that you have read which includes charts, says rallies are likely?


----------



## Muschu (28 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Ahh, what are you so worried about... Europe is all fixed up now. Why else is the market skyrocketing towards 5,000?
> 
> If tomorrow is anything like today, you'll have easy pickings. Do you really want to miss out on all the bargains?




Have fun with the bargains LC.   Want to name 5?

For me I prefer to wait.  Doesn't mean this is the right path or the best call for others.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/de...er-2011-09-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts


----------



## Chasero (28 September 2011)

stacks said:


> Care to post some of your charting analysis? Or do you mean some other peoples analysis that you have read which includes charts, says rallies are likely?




I read quite a few charts and blogs such as:

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

http://www.avidchartist.com/

One blog called macroeconomcis where "Prince of Equity" posts, and others.

I'm at work atm and don't have it favourited, but I'll look it up tonight.


----------



## alexc2005 (28 September 2011)

I think you would have to really know what you are doing to be trading in this market.

Sadly, I'm not one of those. I'm sitting this one out and probably selling most of my shares on the next major rally.

In hindsight i should have done it on the last rally, but its really difficult to not get optimistic when the market seems to be taking a turn for the good.

Who knows, i'll probably change my tone when i'm back in the green again. But one thing I'm learning from this is to take profits when you can and even if you only lock in a 10% gain and the stock continues to go up, hey you cant complain... you made 10%..

Life lessons... Better to learn them when I'm playing with small amounts of money.


----------



## Chasero (28 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> I think you would have to really know what you are doing to be trading in this market.
> 
> Sadly, I'm not one of those. I'm sitting this one out and probably selling most of my shares on the next major rally.
> 
> ...




Yep I am too slowly getting rid of my portfolio 

Goign to sell CBA today or tomorrow, depending on how I feel. Only going to be 30% in shares soon.

Not goign to risk trading this market. Bought some Gold stocks, goign to sell them again early Oct.


----------



## alexc2005 (28 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Yep I am too slowly getting rid of my portfolio
> 
> Goign to sell CBA today or tomorrow, depending on how I feel. Only going to be 30% in shares soon.
> 
> Not goign to risk trading this market. Bought some Gold stocks, goign to sell them again early Oct.




It's hard work though.

I have seen about 5 of my intended buys drop to a price that i have been waiting for but with the market conditions i have been too scared to sink more money in and then within a week they are up 20-30%.

Hell, one of them tripled in a matter of 2 days. Crazy stuff.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (28 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Yep I am too slowly getting rid of my portfolio
> 
> Goign to sell CBA today or tomorrow, depending on how I feel. Only going to be 30% in shares soon.
> 
> Not goign to risk trading this market. Bought some Gold stocks, goign to sell them again early Oct.






alexc2005 said:


> It's hard work though.
> 
> I have seen about 5 of my intended buys drop to a price that i have been waiting for but with the market conditions i have been too scared to sink more money in and then within a week they are up 20-30%.
> 
> Hell, one of them tripled in a matter of 2 days. Crazy stuff.




I read your posts as a couple of investors/traders who need an investment plan. Your posts read like you're both being completely driven by market sentiment, which, IMO, is the worst way to invest.


----------



## Chasero (28 September 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I read your posts as a couple of investors/traders who need an investment plan. Your posts read like you're both being completely driven by market sentiment, which, IMO, is the worst way to invest.




But market sentiment for yesterday and today is bullish?

I'm selling out because I'm not much of a risk taker. 

My investment plan changed ever since Greece may default (which has been on the cards for years I know) but charts don't look too promising. I'd rather see action and maybe after the year is over then I'd place money back into the share markets. 

I'd rather realise a break even on CBA rather than risk it falling further.


----------



## alexc2005 (28 September 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I read your posts as a couple of investors/traders who need an investment plan. Your posts read like you're both being completely driven by market sentiment, which, IMO, is the worst way to invest.




Bingo.

Hence why I am holding back on buying. Because i would just be trying to recover losses and potentially lose more.

All without a plan.

That being said, alot of my investments are longer term and im tempted to ignore this bumpy road (and very tempted to buy into it), BUT how can one sit back and watch this going on without being concerned?

The markets literally make no sense, down selling of good shares, at least 10 of the shares i have been watching went up 30% yesterday. 

But yes, i don't disagree with your view.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (28 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Bingo.
> 
> Hence why I am holding back on buying. Because i would just be trying to recover losses and potentially lose more.
> 
> ...




In one sentence you're holding back, in another you're holding on and in the third you're tempted to buy. To be frank you're being driven completely by emotions.

Slow down, stop trading and flesh out your plan. Then action it and stick to it otherwise you're going to keep bleeding money.

As the old quote goes: Fail to plan, plan to fail.


----------



## alexc2005 (28 September 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> In one sentence you're holding back, in another you're holding on and in the third you're tempted to buy. To be frank you're being driven completely by emotions.
> 
> Slow down, stop trading and flesh out your plan. Then action it and stick to it otherwise you're going to keep bleeding money.
> 
> As the old quote goes: Fail to plan, plan to fail.




Well, i have a plan. But the market sentiment makes me question that plan.

So yes, i am being driven by emotions. I will learn my lessons though.


----------



## Chasero (28 September 2011)

Selling CBA today if it reaches around $46.20. (break even)

Now my portfolio mainly cosists of CSL, WOW, TLS and some gold stocks.

Slowly offloading all the 'risky' shares. 

My heart can't handle the dives. Sorry I'm out!


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (28 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Well, i have a plan. But the market sentiment makes me question that plan.
> 
> So yes, i am being driven by emotions. I will learn my lessons though.




Nothing wrong with questioning a plan - the plan will always evolve over time. The problem is when you abandon a plan and jump onto a new one on the fly without doing appropriate testing. 

E.g. jumping from a developed long term 'value investing' approach to short term swing trading without having done any backtesting for your swing trading plan.

Have you backtested your plan over a number of years and trading conditions and has it held up during those conditions? If so, you should stick to it or take a pause from the market for a while. We all have periods where investments won't perform to plan - no strategy is going to generate returns 100% of the time. Sometimes a break can help you collect your thoughts, analyse your plan's performance and make tweaks were necessary. But don't change your plan on the fly without testing it first.


----------



## FreshTrader (28 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Selling CBA today if it reaches around $46.20. (break even)
> 
> Now my portfolio mainly cosists of CSL, WOW, TLS and some gold stocks.
> 
> ...




Sorry Chasero, doesn't look like CBA will reach 46.20 today, in fact I doubt it will jump the 46 mark, imo.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (28 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Selling CBA today if it reaches around $46.20. (break even)
> 
> Now my portfolio mainly cosists of CSL, WOW, TLS and some gold stocks.
> 
> ...




Hey Chasero,

You still appear to be very jumpy, and you are chopping and changing your plan almost daily, I don't think you are ready to be trading or investing in an active way yet.

What would you think about a more mechanical approach such as the one below.

I think it would atleast allow you to feel like you are doing something in response to market movements without your emotions clouding judgement, and with a longterm approach you could feel happy with both upward and downward movements.



> A very simple but effective portfolio policy for the defensive investor is the 50/50 cash vs index fund approch suggested by benjiman graham.
> 
> It is a rather mechanical approach in which the defensive investor holds 50% of his funds in cash and 50% in a stockmarket index fund,
> 
> ...


----------



## LostMyShirt (28 September 2011)

Tyson,

That plan does not sound bad at all. I think I'll do some reading on it tonight.

In regards to today - most stocks were in the green, however not mine 

Does anyone think there was a lack of volume today? Someone suggested a dead-bounce, I personally don't know.

Also; does anyone think that foreign markets will have a down night? I personally think so - short term profit takers are going to be bailing tonight I believe; though purely speculation.


----------



## FreshTrader (28 September 2011)

I'm with you Shirt, I'm thinking we'll see a fade tonight in overseas markets while keeping in mind that US stocks got heavily sold off in the last 90 mins or so of trade this morning.
Not planning on buying for the rest of this week.


----------



## LostMyShirt (28 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> I'm with you Shirt, I'm thinking we'll see a fade tonight in overseas markets while keeping in mind that US stocks got heavily sold off in the last 90 mins or so of trade this morning.
> Not planning on buying for the rest of this week.




I have holdings sitting in the market so I'm pretty much tearing my hair out daily


----------



## nulla nulla (28 September 2011)

European markets are already open. As at 6:25pm the ftse is down 31 points and the dax 53 points. Hardly surprising that they would have a retrace after last nights bounce, however it is early yet and the djia premarket is showing the djia up 52 points. 

It looks like it is anybodys guess as to where they will be at close of trade.


----------



## LostMyShirt (28 September 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> European markets are already open. As at 6:25pm the ftse is down 31 points and the dax 53 points. Hardly surprising that they would have a retrace after last nights bounce, however it is early yet and the djia premarket is showing the djia up 52 points.
> 
> It looks like it is anybodys guess as to where they will be at close of trade.




That is true - and yeh t is a no brainer that there would be some short term profit taking.

Lol; this is a good way to develop anxiety 

Last night on the DOW, it lost steam towards the end as everyone watched. My belief is that tonight, the traders will be abundant in number and in capital in order experience some nice short term gains. The real suprise was the rate of the DAX and FTSE's rise! I had not witnessed a rise of that caliber for some time.

Wow: DAX down 90 points FTSE down 45; DOW futures are also down. Tonight is not going to be anything to rave about.


----------



## Muschu (28 September 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> European markets are already open. As at 6:25pm the ftse is down 31 points and the dax 53 points. Hardly surprising that they would have a retrace after last nights bounce, however it is early yet and the djia premarket is showing the djia up 52 points.
> 
> It looks like it is anybodys guess as to where they will be at close of trade.




Guess is the right word.  30 mins later the DJIA is down 17... 69 variance.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 September 2011)

Treated today as a sell day, expecting a retrace between now and friday close. Presently limiting trading to those shares we know and are reasonably confident with. Trading the swings and closing out any reasonable profits, not trying to hold in the hope of any run up trends.


----------



## Chasero (28 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> ^
> 
> Still think this is going to happen.
> 
> ...




^

Trusted my gut and since tuesday rallied and today was mostly green, I sold out of CBA realising a capital loss today @ 45.65. Mistake? Maybe.

I don't believe in indexes or being 50% one way or another, I believe in changing my strategy as news unfolds. If I think CBA is going to dive below 40 of course I'm going to sell it. 

My gut says it's a lot more likely to dive then it will be to hold this stock in the current market.

I've always trusted my instincts when trading and although I have made 2 emotional decisions, this one was an exit price I am happy with.

This gives me some cash in October, where I expect bad things to happen. Sorry, just a pessimist. And given that I have exams in October, I don't want the extra stress.

Of course, first rule of trading is to never try to predict the markets. But the news is just too overwhelming to ignore.


----------



## So_Cynical (28 September 2011)

This could turn the markets around...57 Billion Euros a year taken from the people who can most afford it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nancial-transaction-tax-to-start-in-2014.html



			
				Bloomberg said:
			
		

> The European Union proposed a financial-transactions tax that would take effect in 2014 and raise about 57 billion euros ($78 billion) a year.
> The plan would set minimum tax rates for financial transactions throughout the 27-nation EU, the European Commission, the EU’s Brussels-based executive, said today in a statement. It would assess trading of stocks and bonds at a 0.1 percent rate, with a 0.01 percent rate for derivatives contracts.




FTSE and DAX both up a little. 

--------------------------------------

Some people posting in this thread really need to get a grip and harden up a little.


----------



## skc (28 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> This could turn the markets around...57 Billion Euros a year taken from the people who can most afford it.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nancial-transaction-tax-to-start-in-2014.html
> 
> FTSE and DAX both up a little.




The liquidity will dry up faster than <insert your own fast-drying experience>...

If they implement that on the EU and not UK, everyone will just move their business to London.


----------



## So_Cynical (28 September 2011)

skc said:


> The liquidity will dry up faster than <insert your own fast-drying experience>...
> 
> If they implement that on the EU and not UK, everyone will just move their business to London.




The whole North Atlantic should implement this..as it was really a North Atlantic problem in the first place, i like the fix as it targets the idiots that started all this, and penalises the high frequency trading institutions the most..prob should charge a 5% tax on shorting.


----------



## skyQuake (28 September 2011)

skc said:


> The liquidity will dry up faster than <insert your own fast-drying experience>...
> 
> If they implement that on the EU and not UK, everyone will just move their business to London.




0.01% on derivatives? That means everyone will trade derivatives and no-one will touch stocks...

Spread betting would rake in more money as it is still 'gambling'


----------



## LifeChoices (28 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> Selling CBA today if it reaches around $46.20. (break even)
> 
> Now my portfolio mainly cosists of CSL, WOW, TLS and some gold stocks.
> 
> ...







Who wants to make a bet (I mean make an investment) that Chasero changes his mind.


----------



## skc (28 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> The whole North Atlantic should implement this..as it was really a North Atlantic problem in the first place, i like the fix as it targets the idiots that started all this, and penalises the high frequency trading institutions the most..prob should charge a 5% tax on shorting.




Why the crusade on shorting? They banned shorting already on the European banks... did that help?

A frequent argument is that shorting creates "additional" supply when there isn't really any shares to sell. Well, buying creates way more "additional" demand! Buying moves/distorts the market the same way shorting does. Shorting is no different to buying. I bet you more people lost money on pump and dump (distortion from buying) then evil shorter attacks. 

Shorting on its own doesn't create problems for the operation of a company. The poor operation of a company attracts shorting. Anyone who thinks shorters are evil speculators is using reverse causation. 

If you want to ban speculators then ban the long speculators as well. Get people to fill in a form when they want to buy shares and write in fewer than 200 words why they want to acquire such company, then run say monthly auctions like our daily opening auctions to execute the transactions. 

That will drive the speculators out.


----------



## skc (28 September 2011)

skyQuake said:


> 0.01% on derivatives? That means everyone will trade derivatives and no-one will touch stocks...
> 
> Spread betting would rake in more money as it is still 'gambling'




I would spread bet as well if I were in the UK. Paying the spread vs no tax... that is very lucrative.


----------



## Struzball (28 September 2011)

skc said:


> Buying moves/distorts the market the same way shorting does. Shorting is no different to buying. I bet you more people lost money on pump and dump (distortion from buying) then evil shorter attacks.




Indeed.  I don't know why everybody hates people profiting from a bear market but they love it when people (and banks/fundmanagers) profit from a bull market.

Either way somebody gains somebody loses.  However I'd suggest more people lose when speculators push retirees super funds twice as high as they should be when they decide to retire, only to be brought straight back to fair value by the "evil" short sellers.


----------



## LostMyShirt (28 September 2011)

Regarding that article of the "tax";

"The UK has said it will "resist" a financial transaction tax on EU members proposed by the European Commission."

This won't help the markets, no sir...


----------



## So_Cynical (28 September 2011)

skc said:


> Why the crusade on shorting?




1 throw away comment is hardly a crusade. 

There's just something wrong about betting against something, it just doesn't sit well with me...im a purist when it come to placing bets and so if you want to bet against something then just back the rest of the field.

Just the fact that any form of shorting is a bet with a bookie (CFD provider) or a complex derivative, says something about the what's at the heart of the short...its a phoney, made up, fake bet...i mean selling something you don't have on the promise of later buying what you have sold (that you don't have) so you can profit from the difference.

LOL the Nigerian scammers couldn't of come up with something like that cos no one would of believed it.    



LostMyShirt said:


> Regarding that article of the "tax";
> 
> "The UK has said it will "resist" a financial transaction tax on EU members proposed by the European Commission."
> 
> This won't help the markets, no sir...




The EU needs a mechanism to raise lots of money, a mechanism that's politicly palatable and doesn't have a negative affect on GDP...a financial transaction tax on stocks and derivatives ticks all 3 boxes.

Its a near perfect fix....how the hell wouldn't it help the markets?


----------



## effraye (28 September 2011)

Everyones selling.... i think i should be buying!


----------



## LostMyShirt (28 September 2011)

Cynical; I was referring to the resistance bring reported on.


----------



## skc (29 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> 1 throw away comment is hardly a crusade.
> 
> There's just something wrong about betting against something, it just doesn't sit well with me...im a purist when it come to placing bets and so if you want to bet against something then just back the rest of the field.
> 
> Just the fact that any form of shorting is a bet with a bookie (CFD provider) or a complex derivative, says something about the what's at the heart of the short...its a phoney, made up, fake bet...i mean selling something you don't have on the promise of later buying what you have sold (that you don't have) so you can profit from the difference.




So now you are staging a crusade?

Short selling can be done with normal equities. You don't need to use CFD and there is nothing complex about it. It's not even a derivative. It's actually direct equity. Your broker borrow stocks from long holders in order for you to short sell. So if you want to blame short sellers you must also blame those long holders (which by and large are mutual and super funds who try to get that extra few bps on their performance) for lending their shares.

Not all aspects of CFDs are bookies. DMA CFDs are essentially the same as trading equities with leverage and you are entering the market yourself. The only difference being you have a back to back CFD contract with the provider. 

Short selling has been around for as long as the share market has been around... there is nothing phoney or fake about it. Just because it is not something you understand or able to utilise, doesn't make it illegitimate. 

You can perhaps argue the social utility of short selling... but I would say it has as much utility as buying on the share market as well.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> There's just something wrong about betting against something, it just doesn't sit well with me...im a purist when it come to placing bets and so if you want to bet against something then just back the rest of the field.
> 
> Just the fact that any form of shorting is a bet with a bookie (CFD provider) or a complex derivative, says something about the what's at the heart of the short...its a phoney, made up, fake bet...i mean selling something you don't have on the promise of later buying what you have sold (that you don't have) so you can profit from the difference.
> 
> LOL the Nigerian scammers couldn't of come up with something like that cos no one would of believed it.




You are arguing against the normal course of many businesses.

1/ Hedgers (commodity (such as oil, wheat, coffee, cocoa etc) producers and buyers) would not be able insure their prices without the means to short sell futures. In fact futures could not even exist without short selling.

2/ The option market would cease and people would be unable to insure their portfolios.

3/ You would never be able to order anything from any business. Run of the mill businesses routinely sell people something the business does not yet posses, in the hope/knowledge that it can be purchased cheaper. This is the same mechanics as short selling.

4/ And guess what every short sale requires - A BUYER!


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> You are arguing against the normal course of many businesses.
> 
> 1/ Hedgers (commodity (such as oil, wheat, coffee, cocoa etc) producers and buyers) would not be able insure their prices without the means to short sell futures. In fact futures could not even exist without short selling.
> 
> ...




Pity the jerks in Eurofantasyland aren't listening.... 



> *Italian and Spanish financial market regulators extended temporary bans on short selling of financial shares that were introduced last month in a bid to stem market volatility. *
> 
> The European Securities and Markets Authority announced the extension by the two countries in an e-mailed statement. *The Spanish ban will remain “until the market conditions allow it” to be lifted, the country’s financial regulator said in an e- mailed statement. Italy’s restriction, and another enacted by France in August, will both last until Nov. 11. *



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...selling-financial-stocks-amid-volatility.html

So much for any short covering rallies in financials for them from here on....now they are backed hard up against the wall of death...LOL.

Good luck!

PS - No major short cover on the US DOW last night in final hour - more like capitulation for now - until the next "plan" can be spruiked.


----------



## nulla nulla (29 September 2011)

Assuming part of our rise in financials over the last few days was short covering, it will be interesting to see if the hedge funds recommence shorting financials today & tomorrow.


----------



## skc (29 September 2011)

wayneL said:


> You are arguing against the normal course of many businesses.




Nice one Wayne. I was going to write something like that but it was already past mid night and I couldn't be bothered since So_C isn't the regulator who can ban short selling. So why (or where) on earth did you post that at 3am...



Aussiejeff said:


> Pity the jerks in Eurofantasyland aren't listening....
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...selling-financial-stocks-amid-volatility.html
> 
> ...




And for the record...



> since the short sale ban was instituted, SocGen is down 18.5% and UniCredit is down 26.6%.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-more-shorting-financials-europe-ever

The vote in Germany tonight should kill the Eurobond by stealth fantasy in the last few days...



nulla nulla said:


> Assuming part of our rise in financials over the last few days was short covering, it will be interesting to see if the hedge funds recommence shorting financials today & tomorrow.




Man Group, the world's largest hedge fund group, plunged 25% last night in London. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-28/man-group-assets-under-management-fall-8-5-.html 



> Man Group Plc (EMG) fell the most in three years in London trading after the world’s biggest hedge fund said its assets under management will decline by $6 billion amid “suppressed” demand for investment products.
> 
> The stock dropped 25 percent to 180 pence, the most since Nov. 6, 2008. Assets will fall 8.5 percent to $65 billion through September from $71 billion at the end of June, the London-based company said in a statement today. Man Group had outflows of $2.6 billion from its funds in the second quarter, with investors pulling money from strategies betting that stocks will rise and funds focused on emerging markets.


----------



## lenny (29 September 2011)

Lower high on the DOW and Euros last night.

Looks like we will get ours today with the SPI closing -58

The German vote tonight might be the catalyst for the market to sh$t it self if it gets voted down.


----------



## Chasero (29 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Who wants to make a bet (I mean make an investment) that Chasero changes his mind.




If you read my previous post I've already sold it.

I love the sarcasm reeking from your post. When someone makes a move you disagree with just throw the 'gambling' card their way. Nice touch.

I'm just going to stop posting what I'm doing as Im tired of all of these 'gambling' responses.


----------



## skc (29 September 2011)

lenny said:


> Lower high on the DOW and Euros last night.
> 
> Looks like we will get ours today with the SPI closing -58
> 
> The German vote tonight might be the catalyst for the market to sh$t it self if it gets voted down.




It would be catastrophic if it gets voted down and the general consensus is that it will pass. But the vote is only to ratify the expansion in EFSF back in July and the vote count will reveal how likely/unlikely it is for German to agree to an even larger EFSF or its use of leverage...


----------



## drsmith (29 September 2011)

On the topic of measures suggested to try and get Europe out of the financial poop,

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-29/ec-president-calls-for-banks-tax/3034774

Banks would simply pass it on to account holders as Australian banks did with their pre-GST bank taxes. It's just another way for governments to hit their taxpayers. 

Where interest rates are at or near zero, depositers may be better off shoving it under the mattress. No wonder the US and UK arn't too keen.


----------



## LostMyShirt (29 September 2011)

Short lived gains, lol. What we gained two days ago has been eaten up as of this morning


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 September 2011)

Chasero said:


> ^
> 
> 1, I don't believe in indexes
> 
> ...




1, Why, averaging into a market index has prooven an easy way to earn a satisfactory return over time, even if you averaged into the market during the great depression you still would have earned a healthy 8% return.

2, why not, it makes sense for a novice not to be 100% in anything, and By being 50% cash 50% stock it would allow you to have the cash available to continue buying into any falls, So you would not be fearing falls you would be hoping for them.

3, when you say news do you mean the headlines on CNN etc, or actual company annoucements. You need to look passed any "Noise" and try and focus on facts, and how these facts are likly to affect the underlying companies. In another thread you named the reason you hold your stocks, and they are all long term fundamental reasons, Trying to make money short term trading using long term fundamentals will give you poor results.

4, So why did you buy it if you felt that way, The market will change it's mind on the future outlook 10 times before the end off october, trying to second guess it is crazy, So people have the skills, some people will do it by accident and alot of people will lose or waste money on trasaction fees trying to guess what every one else is doing.

5, So don't stress then, Establish a system that suits your temprement. More money has been made and kept by those operating systems that suit their personality than those that try and operate systems they are not emotionally cofortable with.

6, If you can't ignore it then you need a system that does not rely on you making rational decisions when your clouded by market noise, hype and fear.


----------



## lenny (29 September 2011)

What time does china come online?

I'd say we will move further into the red when they do.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 September 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Short lived gains, lol. What we gained two days ago has been eaten up as of this morning




Markets will fluctuate, who cares.

These crashes are not to be feared, you will make more money over time if markets fall from every now and then than you would if they just stayed the same and increased 1 or 2% per year.


----------



## drsmith (29 September 2011)

lenny said:


> What time does china come online?
> 
> I'd say we will move further into the red when they do.



Shanghai is GMT+8hr or the same time zone as Western Australia.

Market opens at 9:30am local, so, in about 15 minutes.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Markets will fluctuate, who cares.
> 
> These crashes are not to be feared, you will make more money over time if markets fall from every now and then than you would if they just stayed the same and increased 1 or 2% per year.


----------



## lenny (29 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Markets will fluctuate, who cares.




If you buy now, and Aug 9th lows break and market falls another 500pts i'm sure you'll care then. lol


----------



## LostMyShirt (29 September 2011)

lenny said:


> If you buy now, and Aug 9th lows break and market falls another 500pts i'm sure you'll care then. lol




Ha!

Damn right!

Still I see where you are comin from Tyson.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 September 2011)

lenny said:


> If you buy now, and Aug 9th lows break and market falls another 500pts i'm sure you'll care then. lol




No I wouldn't care.

I Buy shares regularly, and If they market had another big fall it would excite me, not devastate me.

The Only thing that I look at is the outlook for the companies businesses long term, Not whether their price my rise or fall in the short term voting.

I actuallly have put option contracts open on 4 companies (including CBA @ $37 and BHP @ $25) If those dropped to that level and were exercised I would be happy, I have $30K in cash now and by the time the options expire I will probably have another $30K in savings + if needed can use a loan facility I have to exercise, If they are not exercised I have collected a decent premium, So I am Happy either way.

Part of me is actually worried that the market will recover with out me buying any stock at these low levels, Because all I have done in the last couple of months is sold put options and collected about $5K in premiums and I have been sitting on my cash incase my puts get exercised and if the stockmarket recovers without them being exercised i would have missed an opportunity to deploy some cash.


----------



## lenny (30 September 2011)

Not a bad finish on the DOW last night, but *lower high *still in place.

SPI closed +21 as usual probably get a fade being Friday.


----------



## Struzball (30 September 2011)

I love the Friday night Germany tank session.

Incredible that the DAX being down 2% so far tonight looks like a small movement.  Does that mean when there is a big movement there is a BIG movement?

I own no shares and yet I can't help but feel concerned.

Happy Octoberfest.


----------



## LifeChoices (30 September 2011)

September was a shocker for me.

I keep a diary and have made a commitment to post an entry when I buy/sell, and  post the odd observation. At the end of each month I'll post my position where I compare it to the asx. I'm procrastinating about doing it now.

My reliance of gold/silver mining got me undone and I got stopped out on quite a few stocks. Towards the end of the month I threw my trading scheme out the window and took some big punts on TVN, which thankfully paid off. But that wasn't enough to beat the asx.

On top of this I got two speeding fines within a two week period (The last one I had was 3-4 years ago)
Took my my jack russel, Pipa, to the emergency vet on a Sunday a few weeks back - $475 I couldn't believe it. She had an injection of morphine. A few days later Pippa did this really weird looking spew and was fine after that.


----------



## FreshTrader (30 September 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> September was a shocker for me.
> 
> I keep a diary and have made a commitment to post an entry when I buy/sell, and  post the odd observation. At the end of each month I'll post my position where I compare it to the asx. I'm procrastinating about doing it now.
> 
> ...




Hope Pippa's feeling ok now.
I personally keep a running spreadsheet of all my buys/sells, with a formula to work out the net profit each time i close a position and a formula that calculates my total net profit/loss as a result of all my trades (currently in the green).

However, today I attempted to day trade LYC and got smashed.  Worst day loss result yet.  I'm only new to this trading game but today was a very expensive mistake that I will learn from. 

Hope the figure you come up with after looking at this diary isn't too brutal


----------



## So_Cynical (30 September 2011)

skc said:


> Short selling can be done with normal equities. You don't need to use CFD and there is *nothing complex about it*. It's not even a derivative. It's actually direct equity. Your broker borrow stocks from long holders in order for you to short sell. So if you want to blame short sellers you must also blame those long holders (which by and large are mutual and super funds who try to get that extra few bps on their performance) for lending their shares.




I'm interested in how you define complex as in "nothing complex about it" lets say for argument sake that i have 100K worth of BHP shares...how would i actually go about lending them to a shorter for a few bps? what brokers provide this service?

Is there a form i need to fill out? can you link me to a site or 3? is there a market for owners of BHP wanting to lend there shares to shorters? im assuming there must be a fairly rigorous contract to fill out..i mean i wouldn't want to lend my BHP shares to some shonky operator that mite run away with my shares.

Can they run away with my shares? i would think they could because if they can sell them then they should be able to do almost anything with them...what if the broker i lent them to whet bust like Opes? what happens if the shorter my broker lent them to goes bust? can i get stock lending insurance?

So many question...thanks in advance for your answers.


----------



## Ves (30 September 2011)

Isn't he just talking about a covered call?


----------



## skc (1 October 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I'm interested in how you define complex as in "nothing complex about it" lets say for argument sake that i have 100K worth of BHP shares...how would i actually go about lending them to a shorter for a few bps? what brokers provide this service?
> 
> Is there a form i need to fill out? can you link me to a site or 3? is there a market for owners of BHP wanting to lend there shares to shorters? im assuming there must be a fairly rigorous contract to fill out..i mean i wouldn't want to lend my BHP shares to some shonky operator that mite run away with my shares.
> 
> ...




Sorry I was referring to me shorting shares is nothing complex. My broker already has the shares borrowed (however complex or not complex that process might be) and I just enter a sell order... the exact same operation as if I was buying.

But to answer your many questions...if you want to lend out your BHP shares to shorters, Interactive Broker has recently offered this service to their clients. You can find more information here. http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/pdfhighlights/PDF-StockLoanBorrow.php?ib_entity=llc

I rent out my investment property to some stranger. I needed to fill out a form, so did the tenant, they might trash my place, not pay rent, grow cannabis, start a brothel etc etc. I even had to buy landlord insurance by filling in more forms... I guess it's up to the individual to decide if that is complex or not.



Ves said:


> Isn't he just talking about a covered call?




Are you saying this just to pi$$ Wayne off?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20747&page=1


----------



## FreshTrader (1 October 2011)

Just curious SKC, which broker do you use?  It sounds like something I want to be a part of.


----------



## Ves (1 October 2011)

skc said:


> Are you saying this just to pi$$ Wayne off?
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20747&page=1



My apologies, covered calls was the first thing that came to my mind when you said that they're commonly available. 

As for short-selling; if you cannot make money on the long-side, there is no more chance of making it on the short-side.

edit: the only reason that I say that is because of the "stigma" of short-sellers in the market lately, as if they are "cheating" and have magical price control.


----------



## notting (1 October 2011)

Another talk fest rip off merchant has been everywhere lately, all over the world this guy is pumping up his own tyres.  
However, what he is selling seems to make a fair amount of sense.

However, usually when someone gets something right like predicting the GFC or housing crash they become legends for a year or two then get the next prediction totally wrong.

http://securethefuture.com.au/?gclid=CLSPgceQxqsCFapS4godgg-B1Q
Don't buy anything please.  You get the drift from the spin video.
Never go to one of these conmenars!!!!!!!!!!

Regardless of the con, just as a general question - who agrees the Harry Dent vision?


----------



## Caveman (1 October 2011)

I think its US stocks only
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=shortableStocks&p=stockYield1&ib_entity=llc


----------



## skyQuake (1 October 2011)

Caveman said:


> I think its US stocks only
> http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=shortableStocks&p=stockYield1&ib_entity=llc




Country 	Shortable Stocks

Australia
	Shortable: 126   Listed for Trading: 2133

Aus has a few limited shortable stocks


----------



## Bill M (1 October 2011)

notting said:


> Regardless of the con, just as a general question - who agrees the Harry Dent vision?



I don't think this bloke has any credibility at all. He was the guy that predicted 40,000 on the DOW

---
Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History ...."* In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade*, *the NASDAQ['s] advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 *… The Great Boom['s] resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010.” Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's. According to the book, only a year remains before the Dow breaks 40,000 and the Nasdaq hits 20,000

Link Here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent

---

He now also says:

---
 "Gold and silver are going to crash, they're a bubble,"

Link Here: http://smh.domain.com.au/tsunami-to-hit-australian-real-estate-20110911-1k413.html
---


----------



## FreshTrader (2 October 2011)

How are we looking for next week???   Get smashed Monday, strong rally Tuesday?  Most likely not as strong a rally as last week... unfortunately.


----------



## LostMyShirt (2 October 2011)

Down day Monday providing there is no new significant news on the wire during the weekend. Tuesday? No clue.

DOW, DAX, FTSE and the HSeng took some pretty hefty dives.


----------



## So_Cynical (2 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> DOW, DAX, FTSE and the HSeng took some pretty hefty dives.




DOW, DAX, FTSE all clearly channelling for mine...even with Fridays "hefty dive" they are all still above the bottom of the channel. 
~


----------



## noirua (2 October 2011)

The German and French markets are down 25% since the end of June and the UK down about 13%. Greece look out of trouble for now but Portugal and Italy line up next and it's game over for Europe and the Euro unless they get â‚¬2 trillion in the European 'bail out Bank'. 
The PIIGS have a terrible monetary disease and there may be no cure.
The UK have said 'get stuffed' to more funding and Germany is still in for funding but the German people say no.
The AU$ is tanking now with Canada as resource stocks are ditched from the menu. Mind you, more profit on commodities priced in the US$ (providing the US$ price doesn't fall anymore) for Aussie resource stocks, so they are worth monitoring if you're home based -- search through the carnage; though maybe it's still gold stocks to monitor. All very difficult isn't it.


----------



## LostMyShirt (2 October 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> DOW, DAX, FTSE all clearly channelling for mine...even with Fridays "hefty dive" they are all still above the bottom of the channel.
> ~




That's true - they have as of late staved off the bottom. Lets not forget that the DAX tested 5300, failed, and fell to 5000. As of late they got themselves back up and managed to stay up above the 5300 support.

Here's a question; what is the most likely scenario to come out of EU? This situation is not going to go away and the entire world is hinging on what happens to the EU and US debt...

Bernanke should get off his ass and announce QE3 - but even then! is it REALLY going to fix the issue on the long term? I don't think so.


----------



## explod (2 October 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> DOW, DAX, FTSE all clearly channelling for mine...even with Fridays "hefty dive" they are all still above the bottom of the channel.
> ~




Continually lower highs since July looks a bit ominous to me.

To improve it will take a big move to the upside but a tick down from here would be without much support to Dow 10,000 IMV.

How much more bad news will it take ?


----------



## satanoperca (2 October 2011)

What does the chart tell us?

Trend down

What do we know?

The world is flowing in a sea of debt and there is no solution other than countries/businesses and people taking a hair cut and feeling the pain.

Until there is change in the indebtness of the world can you see the trend changing?

I cannot, so short the bounces and buy the sell offs but hold for long (at current a week) and get burnt.

All in all, life is one big game and so are the markets. It will all work itself out.

Enjoy it.


----------



## VRS (2 October 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> September was a shocker for me.
> 
> My reliance of gold/silver mining got me undone and I got stopped out on quite a few stocks. Towards the end of the month I threw my trading scheme out the window...
> 
> On top of this I got two speeding fines within a two week period (The last one I had was 3-4 years ago) Took my my jack russel, Pipa, to the emergency vet on a Sunday a few weeks back - $475 I couldn't believe it. She had an injection of morphine. A few days later Pippa did this really weird looking spew and was fine after that.




1. Don't ditch your enthusiasm for au/Ag miners just yet chap - the fat lady hasn't started to gargle, let alone sing.

2. Reassessment of one's longstanding investment approach at regular intervals is a sign of realism in an otherwise surreal market & global economic landscape.

3. I propose to this thread the adoption of Pippa/Pipa as Official ASF Mascot

4. Did Pippa/Pipa 'spew' any discernible shape or linear expulsion which might be interpreted as market 'tealeaves' and if so, on the basis that she appears to have now recovered, may we assume that contrary to the vein of this thread the general medium-term trend on the ASX will from herein on be upwards?

5. o/t - If you have any morphine left can I make you an off-market offer for the remainder (since it appears that I might have plenty of time on my hands, perhaps at least until late November, to 'tune out, turn off & bomb' pending any expected resolution on EU debt or the much-welcomed demise of The Bernank/JP Morgue/Rothschild merry-go-round)?

VRS x


----------



## LifeChoices (2 October 2011)

VRS said:


> 1. Don't ditch your enthusiasm for au/Ag miners just yet chap - the fat lady hasn't started to gargle, let alone sing.
> 
> 2. Reassessment of one's longstanding investment approach at regular intervals is a sign of realism in an otherwise surreal market & global economic landscape.
> 
> ...




Hahaha

I kept SVL and NAV. But pretty much dumped everything else I had - BHP, MIN, WOW, AYN and stupid BTU which really went balls up.

The official spelling is Pipa. I always wanted two P's in her name but Lisa insisted it would be spelt with one P. Pipa is fine after doing that weird looking blue chunky textured spew.

The vet did give us some extra morphine, Unfortunately, it's all gone as we gave Pipa the rest in oral form the next morning.


----------



## Julia (2 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> Bernanke should get off his ass and announce QE3



Should he?  What do you think would be the result of that?


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 October 2011)

Julia said:


> Should he?  What do you think would be the result of that?




A quick bounce in the market while the smart money seeks to stave off inflating their cash investing into physical gold. The Benifit to VRS being the increase in Gold price hence near term producers and junior goldies stand to increase profits.

If QE3 is an end solution, why didn't QE1 work? It is a bandaid measure not a cure - I think everyone knows this as common knowledge.


----------



## Struzball (3 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> A quick bounce in the market while the smart money seeks to stave off inflating their cash investing into physical gold. The Benifit to VRS being the increase in Gold price hence near term producers and junior goldies stand to increase profits.
> 
> If QE3 is an end solution, why didn't QE1 work? It is a bandaid measure not a cure - I think everyone knows this as common knowledge.




The thousands that LostMyShirt might make from the deal probably won't justify the trillions the USA will waste.


----------



## alexc2005 (3 October 2011)

Man this is crazy to watch. I can't imagine what GFC1 was like.

Tis a very dangerous game indeed at the moment for the inexperienced.

Mind you if i had of acted on my gut i would have been well in the green by now. But it's much easier to say that than to actually do it!

Predictions for the week? The All ords aren't even that low yet the stocks i follow seem to be trading at much lower than when it went to 3800, i guess they just couldnt cop the constant chipping away at the share price. Banks are still strong though?


----------



## So_Cynical (3 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Man this is crazy to watch. I can't imagine what GFC1 was like.




At least 2 or 3 times as bad as now....for example.

Here's a thread from that time discussing the GFC phenomenon of stocks trading with Market caps lower than their actually cash backing (cash on hand) hard to belive but it was common, especially for ultra and small caps.

Companies with cash backing above MC, November-2008
www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13442

Interesting to note that as far as i know most if not all stocks mentioned in that thread went on to trade at prices 100 to 500% higher over the following 12 months.


----------



## Julia (3 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> A quick bounce in the market while the smart money seeks to stave off inflating their cash investing into physical gold. The Benifit to VRS being the increase in Gold price hence near term producers and junior goldies stand to increase profits.
> 
> If QE3 is an end solution, why didn't QE1 work? It is a bandaid measure not a cure - I think everyone knows this as common knowledge.



 That was the point of my asking you the question when you suggested Mr Bernanke should get on with more of the same.



Struzball said:


> The thousands that LostMyShirt might make from the deal probably won't justify the trillions the USA will waste.



Exactly.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 October 2011)

Hard to see an All Ords run up to above 5000 points at the moment but it will happen.


----------



## Struzball (3 October 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Hard to see an All Ords run up to above 5000 points at the moment but it will happen.




7000 will happen too.. one day.


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 October 2011)

Julia said:


> That was the point of my asking you the question when you suggested Mr Bernanke should get on with more of the same.
> 
> 
> Exactly.




I don't think I ever asked Bernanke to hurry up, let alone post it here ont he forums. Rather was answering a question that was not directed towards me.

Couple the thousands that I would make, with the millions the insto's around the world would make etc etc etc then marry them up to the losses and tell me if the ratio was worth it or not. 

Having said that - asking for a full on permanent fix is selfish and probably ignorant to even mention. Perhaps at this time, QE3 may be the only viable measure. Then again, I am no Economist.


----------



## alexc2005 (3 October 2011)

I'm seeing a rally tonight on the DOW. Followed by a rally of the all ords tomorrow.

Either way it will be lower highs and lower lows...

Can't seem to win in this market, i hesitate to be safe, and both of the ones i hesitate on skyrocket today. That and SDL (another one i hesitated on) is in trading halt to announce the takeover price of speculated 57c!!

Just out of curiosity for my own knowledge, how do you guys predict whether a share has the potential to continue rising that day. e.g.

GCN at 11 went from 2.3c up to 2.5c and then went back down to 2.3 and then ended up closing at 2.7.

What are you looking for to indicate that there was potential movement up again after it dropped back down? buyers greatly outweighing the sellers? 

Same thing happened with BMN today, both of these shares have risen over 30% in the past week!! That's impressive.


----------



## tech/a (3 October 2011)

> Can't seem to win in this market




Your trading in a reactive manner. You also only trade long.
There is no indication if a reversal to bullishness.
As such you should be at worst flat and at best looking for short opportunities.


----------



## Struzball (3 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Just out of curiosity for my own knowledge, how do you guys predict whether a share has the potential to continue rising that day. e.g.
> 
> GCN at 11 went from 2.3c up to 2.5c and then went back down to 2.3 and then ended up closing at 2.7.
> 
> What are you looking for to indicate that there was potential movement up again after it dropped back down? buyers greatly outweighing the sellers?




It could have just been one guy wanting to sink a buttload of money into GCN, 2.7 might just have been his price limit.

How can you predit that?  You can't, unless you ask them before they buy.


----------



## FreshTrader (3 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> I'm seeing a rally tonight on the DOW. Followed by a rally of the all ords tomorrow.




Seriously hope you're right Alex, hoping to jump out of LYC tomorrow at a decent price.


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 October 2011)

I dont know why you are seeing a green day on the DOW. The Futures are down, a lot of money is being sunk into Gold and the EU is in a sea of blood. Tomorrows all Ords action should see some buying and grabbing of oppertunities, but whether or not the Bulls or bears will win out is a mystery to me.

I did notice todays lack of volume overall - I think those who were waiting for a 3800 test are going to get their chance soon barring any unforseen _good_ news to arise on the wire.

http://www.reuters.com/video/2011/1...uters/USVideoBusiness+(Video+/+US+/+Business)


----------



## McCoy Pauley (3 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I dont know why you are seeing a green day on the DOW. The Futures are down, a lot of money is being sunk into Gold and the EU is in a sea of blood. Tomorrows all Ords action should see some buying and grabbing of oppertunities, but whether or not the Bulls or bears will win out is a mystery to me.
> 
> *I did notice todays lack of volume overall* - I think those who were waiting for a 3800 test are going to get their chance soon barring any unforseen _good_ news to arise on the wire.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/video/2011/1...uters/USVideoBusiness+(Video+/+US+/+Business)




Half of Australia was on public holidays today. That will explain the lack of volume in trading today.


----------



## tech/a (3 October 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Half of Australia was on public holidays today. That will explain the lack of volume in trading today.




You'll find that that particular half doesnt  supply the volume in the market.
The market isn't influenced by public holidays unless it's closed


----------



## Julia (3 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I don't think I ever asked Bernanke to hurry up, let alone post it here ont he forums.




This is your comment that prompted my question:



LostMyShirt said:


> Bernanke should get off his ass and announce QE3 - but even then! is it REALLY going to fix the issue on the long term? I don't think so.




I'm just trying to understand why - when in the next phrase you suggest QE3 would not fix the issue - you suggest Mr Bernanke should 'get off his ass" and make it happen?

Struzball, in a following post, suggested it would ultimately fix nothing and cost a huge amount.  I agree.


----------



## LostMyShirt (3 October 2011)

Julia said:


> This is your comment that prompted my question:
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Oh wow I did post that! I can't remember! What a weekend  Well I gave my view on it already.

I know it is not a permanent fix, and I know that QE3 will not be the end game; it may probably be the best course of action for an immediate effect.


----------



## nulla nulla (4 October 2011)

I read this morning that the djia has now reached its' lowest point for this year. While I believe the djia was over inflated in the first place, having surged back to the 11,000+ levels while our xao struggled to reach 5100, it is no comfort when the djia comes back to realistic levels that the xao gets dragged down with it. 




With the xao under 4000 (and likely to fall further) maybe now is the time to panic


----------



## alexc2005 (4 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Seriously hope you're right Alex, hoping to jump out of LYC tomorrow at a decent price.




Call it wishful thinking. Unfortunately it didn't come to light.

Another bloodbath today it seems.


----------



## skc (4 October 2011)

Aussie market holding up remarkably well considering what went down last night.

The rest of Asia are down a fair bit, and there are no signs of turn around in Europe and US... where's this strength coming from?


----------



## LostMyShirt (4 October 2011)

skc said:


> Aussie market holding up remarkably well considering what went down last night.
> 
> The rest of Asia are down a fair bit, and there are no signs of turn around in Europe and US... where's this strength coming from?




Massive amounts of shorters?   

Honestly I have no clue but you have to admit the ASX did take some pretty heavy hits over the last few sessions...


----------



## Struzball (4 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Seriously hope you're right Alex, hoping to jump out of LYC tomorrow at a decent price.




I'm guessing when LYC went up from it's lows you decided you'll hold on and not sell because it's a good investment?

Then when it ended up closing near it's lows for the day you thought you'd hold on and wait for the next rise to sell into?

Hopefully I'm wrong and you sold at today's peak and it continues to fall as you expected.


----------



## LostMyShirt (4 October 2011)

Should be a weak green onthe DOW tonight - can't comment on Euro.


----------



## notting (4 October 2011)

Thinking that we might be positive tomorrow, followed by horror on Thursday. 
Just got a dark feeling about Thursday.


----------



## satanoperca (4 October 2011)

I love this thread. 

Full of :

Hope
Might
Should
Could
Would
Panic

I have no idea but I will keep guessing.

Stick to your plan if you have one and let the markets tell the story one day at a time.

Cheers


----------



## bandicoot76 (4 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> I love this thread.
> 
> Full of :
> 
> ...




+1!!!


----------



## Aussiejeff (4 October 2011)

notting said:


> Thinking that we might be positive tomorrow, followed by horror on Thursday.
> Just got a dark feeling about Thursday.




Well, the Bull speculators tried really, really hard to pull on the green jersey today.... but failed at the last hurdle.

*doh*

Facepalm....


----------



## VSntchr (4 October 2011)

Europe investing in the tanks again :


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 October 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Well, the Bull speculators tried really, really hard to pull on the green jersey today.... but failed at the last hurdle.
> 
> *doh*
> 
> Facepalm....



Anyone selling into a small bounce like that would be selling at a loss from previous days. Double doh


----------



## howmanyru (4 October 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Europe investing in the tanks again :




Familiar pattern, down trend firmly established, how low can it go? Who is brave enough to call the bottom? Will it stop at the GFC low, then we have another huge rally? I guess all we know for now is that stocks are headed lower so factor that into our risk management.


----------



## FreshTrader (4 October 2011)

Struzball said:


> I'm guessing when LYC went up from it's lows you decided you'll hold on and not sell because it's a good investment?
> 
> Then when it ended up closing near it's lows for the day you thought you'd hold on and wait for the next rise to sell into?
> 
> Hopefully I'm wrong and you sold at today's peak and it continues to fall as you expected.




Unfortunately you're almost spot on the money, still holding them for now, as my paper loss is well into 4 digits and I'm hard pressed to accept that much of a loss.  I realise that if I continue to hold I'm in serious risk of losing more, which seems very likely to happen.  Will sell tomorrow most likely.


----------



## Gundini (4 October 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Familiar pattern, down trend firmly established, how low can it go? Who is brave enough to call the bottom? Will it stop at the GFC low, then we have another huge rally? I guess all we know for now is that stocks are headed lower so factor that into our risk management.




Tech/a and others have mentioned 9100 odd in the DOW. This lines up with my guidelines. Pretty happy to wait till then. Have been mostly on the sideline for a long time now and happy to draw on my inner patience.


----------



## satanoperca (4 October 2011)

No trend followers in this thread.

Follow the trend, trend is down, use the instruments available to you, short the markets until a sign of reversal appears.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (4 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> No trend followers in this thread.
> 
> Follow the trend, trend is down, use the instruments available to you, short the markets until a sign of reversal appears.
> 
> Cheers




What would you consider a " sign" ?


----------



## satanoperca (4 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> What would you consider a " sign" ?




Stopping volume might be one, over several time periods to confiirm trend reversal.

A break of the current downward trend channel might be another

Bouncing off a support level unfortunately that is around 3100

Decrease in volume after a downtrend with a consolidation period, might not be to reliable.

More advances across a body of stocks than declines.

Not into picking bottoms or tops, just getting the meat in the sandwhich.

and on the rare occassion I use fundamentals, some stability in the debt crisis or a change in economic thought.

When my scan provides more buy signals than sell signals over a several day period

Geez, a simple moving average cross over might surfice.

I maintain if Lehnman Brothers could bring us down to 3100 then a default in Europe or the complete meltdown of the US should brings us below that point.

I will simply stick to my plan and system.

And your thoughts on identifying a trend reversal.

Cheers


----------



## GRYPHON80 (4 October 2011)

Gundini said:


> Tech/a and others have mentioned 9100 odd in the DOW. This lines up with my guidelines. Pretty happy to wait till then. Have been mostly on the sideline for a long time now and happy to draw on my inner patience.





http://www.bloomberg.com/video/76381224/

Just saw this clip on Bloomberg, anyone seen this & what are your thoughts ?


----------



## skyQuake (4 October 2011)

GRYPHON80 said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/video/76381224/
> 
> Just saw this clip on Bloomberg, anyone seen this & what are your thoughts ?




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent


----------



## LostMyShirt (4 October 2011)

skyQuake said:


> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent




There is no indication that his prediction will meet the numbers he quotes, ie. DOW @ 3100 - but he has a decent premise, enough to warrent emphasis.

"You will get a chance to get out during the end of the year" - If enough people listen, especially in the USA where it has a very large base of retail investors, it may lead to a self fulfiling prophecy. Then again it's a long shot that would happen as I always _like_ to believe when markets crash there is good reason for it...


----------



## notting (4 October 2011)

I enjoyed this line from Wikipeadia
"In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him(Harry Dent) the The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book"


----------



## noirua (4 October 2011)

Warning! London is tanking badly with every footsie 100 stock down, not a blue in sight. Every sector is affected bar absolutely none. Mining stocks are 6% to 15% down in the bigger sector and up to 30% down amongst the minnows and gold miners a bit mixed but falls to 20%. Financials are down 8% to 15%.

Not blood on the streets the place is awash in a sea of red - god help us.

This looks extremely serious!


----------



## LifeChoices (4 October 2011)

notting said:


> I enjoyed this line from Wikipeadia
> "In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him(Harry Dent) the The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book"




I made the mistake of clicking the link to his  show in Australia some days ago - now his stupid smug smiling face is popping up in ads all over the place.


----------



## notting (4 October 2011)

noirua said:


> Warning! London is tanking badly with every footsie 100 stock down, not a blue in sight. Every sector is affected bar absolutely none. Mining stocks are 6% to 15% down in the bigger sector and up to 30% down amongst the minnows and gold miners a bit mixed but falls to 20%. Financials are down 8% to 15%.
> 
> Not blood on the streets the place is awash in a sea of red - god help us.
> 
> This looks extremely serious!




Gosh.  I was very close to buying RIO at the Close and recommending buying FTSE after about half an hour of it's opening and selling it at the close. Still US has not yet opened and anything could still happen.

Don't you think that the Europeans are just trying to scare Greece straight whilst having no intention of letting them default.  Problem is their freaking out the whole world and causing a bigger problem!


----------



## noirua (4 October 2011)

notting said:


> Gosh.  I was very close to buying RIO at the Close and recommending buying FTSE after about half an hour of it's opening and selling it at the close. Still US has not yet opened and anything could still happen.
> 
> Don't you think that the Europeans are just trying to scare Greece straight whilst having no intention of letting them default.  Problem is their freaking out the whole world and causing a bigger problem!




Germany leads Europe and Angela Merkell is wobbling a bit, it is reported behind the scenes. If she piles German money into Greece then she'll lose at the next election.
Any business man worth their salt will be out of Greece anyway, so the feeling is any money going into Greece goes into a black hole.

Greece goes down and so do its banks and those of Germany and France and a British bank may also tumble. However, Germany can pile money into their banks and that's not as bad as piling it into Greece.

The European International bank needs AU$3 trillion and the UK has virtually said, 'piss off to that'. Can Germany bail out the whole of Europe and Merkell put her career on the line ????????????????


----------



## Boggo (4 October 2011)

noirua said:


> Germany leads Europe and Angela Merkell is wobbling a bit, it is reported behind the scenes. If she piles German money into Greece then she'll lose at the next election.
> Any business man worth their salt will be out of Greece anyway, so the feeling is any money going into Greece goes into a black hole.
> 
> Greece goes down and so do its banks and those of Germany and France and a British bank may also tumble. However, Germany can pile money into their banks and that's not as bad as piling it into Greece.
> ...




The problem that Merkel has got herself into is that she has already lent too much to Greece.
Borrowing to pay off debt (Greece etc) is a stupid concept and the lenders to such a concept are just as silly (Germany).

The Greeks have become so used to their carefree spend and someone will send attitude that they are unwilling to make the changes that are necessary to get them out of this.
Have a read of this and you may see why they are in so deep...
http://chasblogspot.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-greece-is-in-trouble-and-warning.html

At least Ireland recognised the problem, they took it on headfirst with the money they borrowed and they are now showing signs of possible recovery despite those around them still having their heads in the sand in the hope that it will all just go away.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Does-Ireland-solution-Europe-yahoofinanceuk-2214278577.html


----------



## nulla nulla (5 October 2011)

At this point in time, we should express our thanks for Mr Bernake for providing yet another opportunity to sell into the rises. Assuming we have a bounce today. 




If the djia recovery today from 160 points down to 150 points up before close is any sort of indicator we should be good for a rise.


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> At least Ireland recognised the problem, they took it on headfirst with the money they borrowed and they are now showing signs of possible recovery despite those around them still having their heads in the sand in the hope that it will all just go away.
> http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Does-Ireland-solution-Europe-yahoofinanceuk-2214278577.html




Not so sure about the "rosy" outlook for Ireland.



> This brings us onto the banking sector. Unlike other European governments, Ireland took a proactive stance and *nationalised its most problematic banks* early into the financial crisis. In 2008 the Irish government injected €1.75 billion into the most troubled lender Anglo Irish. *In January 2009 Anglo was officially nationalised, and all shares of the bank were transferred to the government.*




So, a communist/socialist move by the Irish government to "nationalise" its most troubled banks is a good thing?



> This had two main consequences: firstly, the government has had to stump up €30 billion for Anglo, *which nearly bankrupted the state and pushed up the 2010 deficit to a whopping 32.4% of GDP*.
> 
> The second is that *it forced the creation of the controversial National Asset Management Agency (Nama). This is the ultimate "bad bank"* that was designed to bring more credit back to the Irish economy.
> 
> Nama hasn't helped boost credit levels, which remain extremely weak, but it has been successful at recouping some of the public money that went into bailing out the banks.




In a way, the Irish government has been lucky they were one of the "first cabs off the rank" in facing state bankruptcy before the contagion in Greece, Italy & Spain etc really flared up. The focus was very much on Ireland and their relatively tiny economy at the time - they literally have had time on their side IMO.   



> Nama has many critics, who rightly question why the government decided to save banks and not let them go to the wall. However, it has been firm and steadfast in *its attempts to sell the property on its books and make money for the state and it will seize any property development loan worth more than 420 million*.
> 
> The fact the state is dealing with Ireland's banks and their troubled assets has contributed to the relative calm in Irish banking stocks (those that are left) relative to their eurozone peers.



 Again, I'm not sure a communist/socialist pattern of "nationalising" or "seizing" everything that fails using taxpayers money is a good idea?  



> The government was criticised for nationalising Irish banks, however, *there is now a growing chorus for other European economies, most notable France, Italy and Spain to follow suit and use national money to boost capital levels and stave of the threat of bankruptcy* in case of a sovereign default.



 Funny how quickly some so-called Western capitalist "democracies" want to turn to the darker side of socialist/communist economic rule by "seizing state assets" when the money squeeze is on...  



> As Ireland has found out, government cash injections are not a magic cure for the banking sector's ills. *Allied Irish Bank, nationalised at the end of last year, is only worth a mere €0.04 nine months on (down from more than €20 a share five years ago), but at least the price isn't falling anymore.*



 Hahaha. "At least the price isn't falling anymore"? How much lower can it go? Had to laugh at that little Irish joke. Yep, the price surely can't fall much from .04 Euro eh? LOL

IMO they most definitely are NOT out of the economic woods by any stretch of some bullish commentators imagination.

aj


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> At this point in time, we should express our thanks for Mr Bernake for providing yet another opportunity to sell into the rises. Assuming we have a bounce today.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yep. "Sell into the hype" looks good. Amazing how a bit of hot air out of some guys mouth can move the world, eh?

An hour ago, the rags were screaming "Stocks Plunge!" 

Now it will be "Stocks Soar!"

Hilarious....


----------



## notting (5 October 2011)

It seems an 45 minutes is a long time in the markets these days.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 October 2011)

Buffett on the market today

.[video]http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/10/04/n_co_buffett_banks_selloff.cnnmoney/[/video]


----------



## wayneL (5 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Buffett on the market today
> 
> .[video]http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/10/04/n_co_buffett_banks_selloff.cnnmoney/[/video]




Buffett has become nothing more than a shill.... tragic.

Nevertheless I appreciate the propaganda, I have a few penneth worth.


----------



## investorpaul (5 October 2011)

wayneL said:


> Buffett has become nothing more than a shill.... tragic.
> 
> Nevertheless I appreciate the propaganda, I have a few penneth worth.




The thing is, that Buffet is obviously respected by the masses so what he says does hold sway for many.

In effect he is a defacto spokesman for the US government and therefore I feel it is hard for him to speak 100% of the truth.

Although I do understand what you are saying.


----------



## sinner (5 October 2011)

wayneL said:


> Buffett has become nothing more than a shill.... tragic.
> 
> Nevertheless I appreciate the propaganda, I have a few penneth worth.




lol, shill! You are so nice to understate the hypocrite wayneL, 

I think the Lubrizol affair showed the likes of Buffett and Munger to be who they really are

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/an...ach-other-sokols-lawyer-accuses-buffett-lying


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 October 2011)

> *Cameron to Offer Optimism Amid U.K. Slump*
> 
> “If we put in the effort, correct those mistakes, confront those vested interests and take on the failed ideas of the past, then I know we can turn this ship around,” the premier will say. “Success will come: with the right ideas, the right approach, the right leadership.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...imism-amid-worse-than-expected-u-k-slump.html

LOL. This crap about sums it up folks. _Blind optimism_ should prevail in the end, eh? Double-lol.

Tank x 2.


----------



## notting (5 October 2011)

I liked this line:
“We need to tell the truth about the overall economic situation,” Cameron


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 October 2011)

investorpaul said:


> The thing is, that Buffet is obviously respected by the masses so what he says does hold sway for many.




Really, The masses seem to do the opposite to the things he does and says, and he is often riddiculed for the investments he makes at the time he makes them.


----------



## investorpaul (5 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Really, The masses seem to do the opposite to the things he does and says, and he is often riddiculed for the investments he makes at the time he makes them.




Hmmm, I understand what you mean and know that alot of people on these forums (and others) hold similar views.

However to mum and dad investors he is 

1. Rich
2. Successful (over the duration of his life, not saying his recent moves are good)
3. Shown on prime time tv constantly

As a result I feel he would hold some sway.

It was just like an article I read once that said a huge percentage (forget how large) followed Kochie (from Sunrise) as their sole source of financial news and analysis. Mind numbing I know


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 October 2011)

investorpaul said:


> 1, However to mum and dad investors
> 
> 2, It was just like an article I read once that said a huge percentage (forget how large) followed Kochie (from Sunrise) as their sole source of financial news and analysis. Mind numbing I know




1, The majority (at least in Australia) would probably have heard his name, But not really know anything about him or what he does or thinks.

And if mum and dad investors actually took his advice they would be limiting themselves to dollar cost averaging into index funds over very long savings periods, keeping a emergency fund in cash and staying clear of credit cards and excessive debt. It's hard to see how that can be called bad advice.

2, Thats right, and the same for a whole host of talking heads round the world whos advice is often debunked weeks after they have given it.


----------



## nulla nulla (5 October 2011)

Are we talking about "Buffet": Mega rich; successful yet humble; and able to influence government policy, or are we talking about Sunrise's "David Coch": Ambulance chaser; opinionated; failed stand up comedian and sounds like he still lives in the 50's?


----------



## Boggo (5 October 2011)

notting said:


> It seems an 45 minutes is a long time in the markets these days.




Back on topic, you are quite right.
This is a 5 min chart of the FTSE 100 futures (Dec 11), presents great opportunities though.

(click to expand)


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Are we talking about "Buffet": Mega rich; successful yet humble; and able to influence government policy, or are we talking about Sunrise's "David Coch": Ambulance chaser; opinionated; failed stand up comedian and sounds like he still lives in the 50's?




If your talking about the post above yours the first 2 paragraphs are on Buffet, the third is about Kochie.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (6 October 2011)

Very interesting article today on MB:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/10/bull-versus-bear-is-dead/

In my view, the market is pretty much driven by the day to day ongoings in Europe and European related problems (in banking for instance) at the moment. I cannot see any position of any duration which can be predicted to be successful with any solid degree of certainly.

Technical trading rules the markets now?


----------



## nulla nulla (6 October 2011)

Another turbulent night on the djia. At least this time it was fairly consistant in pushing upwards. 




Hopefully we can put our "Tanking panic" on hold and get the xao back above 4000.


----------



## investorpaul (6 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, The majority (at least in Australia) would probably have heard his name, But not really know anything about him or what he does or thinks.
> 
> And if mum and dad investors actually took his advice they would be limiting themselves to dollar cost averaging into index funds over very long savings periods, keeping a emergency fund in cash and staying clear of credit cards and excessive debt. It's hard to see how that can be called bad advice.
> 
> 2, Thats right, and the same for a whole host of talking heads round the world whos advice is often debunked weeks after they have given it.




Agree, I was however talking about the US market/investor. (I prob didnt make that clear enough in my original post)


----------



## investorpaul (6 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Another turbulent night on the djia. At least this time it was fairly consistant in pushing upwards.
> 
> View attachment 44795
> 
> ...




Green is Green, although I would have liked to see the DOW a bit stronger given the gains on Euro markets. (not necessarily stronger in the sense of higher gains, but a more sustained move up without those intra-day dips)

Also we really need to get away from these 3, 4, 5% moves (if you are a bull) and see smaller, more sustained rises. Although I guess that wont happen any time soon/until the Euro is shorted


----------



## VSntchr (6 October 2011)

Sorry, been away for 2 days...seems likes everythings fixed..end thread here.

:


----------



## nulla nulla (6 October 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Sorry, been away for 2 days...seems likes everythings fixed..end thread here.
> 
> :




Hmmm.....not that I am superstitious but I think that one may be tempting fate.


----------



## VSntchr (6 October 2011)

Depending on the weather, tomorrow may be a good day to wear shorts.


----------



## LostMyShirt (6 October 2011)

Things should be green ont he DOW's close tonight and can't comment on the EURO in totality however the FTSE may see some green as well according to the futures.

I hope Friday on the ASX is not in the red as it usually seems to do more often than not on a Friday...

News on my ticker has been slow - no news is good news


----------



## Struzball (6 October 2011)

Too much excitement despite it only being at about the same level it was a week ago.
Have we all forgotten the fact that the DOW fell below it's August '11 lows just a few days ago?  Or does that not matter anymore?

I think tonight/tomorrow night will be testing the resistance, and probably falling sharply after, probably Friday night as is usual for Europe these days.  It might hold up OK for tonight.  I wouldn't be surpised if it doesn't.  I'd be very surpised if it pushed alot higher from here.


----------



## LostMyShirt (6 October 2011)

Struzball said:


> Too much excitement despite it only being at about the same level it was a week ago.
> Have we all forgotten the fact that the DOW fell below it's August '11 lows just a few days ago?  Or does that not matter anymore?
> 
> I think tonight/tomorrow night will be testing the resistance, and probably falling sharply after, probably Friday night as is usual for Europe these days.  It might hold up OK for tonight.  I wouldn't be surpised if it doesn't.  I'd be very surpised if it pushed alot higher from here.




I agree with the entirety of your post. I think Friday will be yet another sea of RED for foreign markets as well...


----------



## LifeChoices (6 October 2011)

After throwing my trading scheme out the window a few weeks back and bouyed by a couple of punts I took towards the end of September. I tried my luck at catching knives again, with quite unspectacular results.

Because of my ego I bought some EGO after the announcement, when they looked reasonably priced. But instead of going up like most other stocks did in the last two days they went south. I really don't want to hold them over the weekend.

I think the next month on holidays abroad, away from my 'puter is going to do me some good.


----------



## sammy84 (6 October 2011)

There was signal last night in the US which should put the bears away for the time being.


----------



## howmanyru (6 October 2011)

Are you talking about the reversal ?


----------



## sammy84 (6 October 2011)

howmanyru said:


> Are you talking about the reversal ?




The reversal is nice by all means, but I'm talking about the type A bullish divergence.


----------



## lenny (7 October 2011)

Markets moved into a very interesting juncture with a rally into the 50 day MA which is quite typical for bear markets.

A lot of gaps have been left behind on the major stocks that will need to be filled before the real leg higher.

NFP tonight reversal?


----------



## Boggo (7 October 2011)

My take on it at the moment.
Until it gets above the 4500 area we are still in a (volatile) downtrend, some great opportunities to be had now if it continues up but I am not convinced that we have seen the bottom just yet until the area of resistance is overcome.

Just my  but open to any opinions.

(click to expand)


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 October 2011)

Chasero said:


> Yep I am too slowly getting rid of my portfolio
> 
> 
> .






Chasero said:


> Selling CBA today if it reaches around $46.20. (break even)
> 
> Slowly offloading all the 'risky' shares.
> 
> My heart can't handle the dives. Sorry I'm out!




heres your chance CBA @ $46.20 as I type.

Or now that things are heading up are you suddenly more confident in the markets.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> but I am not convinced that we have seen the bottom just yet
> (click to expand)




That would be nice,


----------



## Muschu (7 October 2011)

I know 12 or so hours is an eternity - but am I right in that the DOW futures are marginally down for tonight?


----------



## skc (7 October 2011)

Muschu said:


> I know 12 or so hours is an eternity - but am I right in that the DOW futures are marginally down for tonight?




ES is down 1pt so nothing in it really.

The NFP tonight might move the market. But unless it is really dramatically different to what is expected, I think the market will do what the market always does. i.e. choose and pick the news it wishes to accept / ignore.

What happens to Dexia's existing shareholders on its nationalisation^2 might have a larger impact...


----------



## lenny (7 October 2011)

Hi Boggo, Any chance of a chart with MT predictors decision point?

Or is 4165/4226 area it.

Much appreciated
Lenny


----------



## Boggo (7 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Hi Boggo, Any chance of a chart with MT predictors decision point?
> 
> Or is 4165/4226 area it.
> 
> ...




The "area of decision" (4165/4226) is just a 50% and 61.8% retracement of the last leg down and is of interest as it is usually seems to be the first hurdle in a change of direction.

The MTPredictor Decision Points are really no more than ~1.272% external retracement of the last leg measured from a pivot point (in AGET its referred to as MOB I think) that you can just calculate and project from the last pivot.


----------



## sammy84 (7 October 2011)

Struzball said:


> Too much excitement despite it only being at about the same level it was a week ago.
> Have we all forgotten the fact that the DOW fell below it's August '11 lows just a few days ago?  Or does that not matter anymore?
> 
> I think tonight/tomorrow night will be testing the resistance, and probably falling sharply after, probably Friday night as is usual for Europe these days.  It might hold up OK for tonight.  I wouldn't be surpised if it doesn't.  I'd be very surpised if it pushed alot higher from here.






LostMyShirt said:


> I agree with the entirety of your post. I think Friday will be yet another sea of RED for foreign markets as well...






LifeChoices said:


> After throwing my trading scheme out the window a few weeks back and bouyed by a couple of punts I took towards the end of September. I tried my luck at catching knives again, with quite unspectacular results.
> 
> Because of my ego I bought some EGO after the announcement, when they looked reasonably priced. But instead of going up like most other stocks did in the last two days they went south. I really don't want to hold them over the weekend.
> 
> I think the next month on holidays abroad, away from my 'puter is going to do me some good.






lenny said:


> Markets moved into a very interesting juncture with a rally into the 50 day MA which is quite typical for bear markets.
> 
> A lot of gaps have been left behind on the major stocks that will need to be filled before the real leg higher.
> 
> NFP tonight reversal?




Love this thread to gauge sentiment. The majority aren't the ones who are making money. Unless of course this thread only comprises the smart money


----------



## Struzball (7 October 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Love this thread to gauge sentiment. The majority aren't the ones who are making money. Unless of course this thread only comprises the smart money




BTW, I have no sentiment, was long today (I only paper trade), but made the best intraday (paper) profit so far, long term short was closed out yesterday mid day.  I take it as it comes, what my sentiment was yesterday is always different to today.

And I still stand by what I said last night that I believe it will be testing the resistance _today_, probable fall overseas tonight because it's Friday, however if things change, and resistance is broken, I'll change my mind about the massive fall coming soon.

I can only (paper) profit from what happens, not what I think will happen.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 October 2011)

Struzball said:


> I can only (paper) profit from what happens, not what I think will happen.



I would like to profit from what happens but unfortunately I don't know what will happen. Might give random entry a go because thinking about a buy or sell just doesn't cut the mustard.


----------



## Struzball (7 October 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> I would like to profit from what happens but unfortunately I don't know what will happen. Might give random entry a go because thinking about a buy or sell just doesn't cut the mustard.




Random entry would work well with a smart exit


----------



## Billyb (7 October 2011)

Struzball said:


> Random entry would work well with a smart exit




Two huge spread up days (including a gap up) on the All ords with fairly crappy volume with a clear textbook downtrend behind it - clearly this is a sign of emotional short time buying. All downtrends have pullbacks nothing unusual here!


----------



## Ves (7 October 2011)

Billyb said:


> Two huge spread up days (including a gap up) on the All ords with fairly crappy volume with a clear textbook downtrend behind it - clearly this is a sign of emotional short time buying. All downtrends have pullbacks nothing unusual here!



I don't know much about tech analysis, but isn't there a double bottom on the XAO daily between 3900-3950... could be enough cause for a bounce of sorts.


----------



## Boggo (7 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> The "area of decision" (4165/4226) is just a 50% and 61.8% retracement of the last leg down and is of interest as it is usually seems to be the first hurdle in a change of direction.




Still in that area (just barely) at the close today, a break either way with a cross (and close) of either ~4100 or ~4300 should be an indication of which way next.

(click to expand)


----------



## Ves (7 October 2011)

The US jobs data seems to have answered that question. Providing no "bad" news come out to offset it.


----------



## LostMyShirt (8 October 2011)

It is good to see the Marubozu above the 20dMA on robust volume - it may go to meet the short term resistance at 4400.  I think it will retrace on Monday though I believe the downtrend for now may have plateaud since the low of mid Sept to early Oct are equal. The only concern I have with that theory is that from early to late June there was also a double bottom but the volumes were weaker and not as volatile.


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 October 2011)

Ves said:


> The US jobs data seems to have answered that question. Providing no "bad" news come out to offset it.




Well, it didn't take long for that "bad" news to arrive.....after 3pm a big slump in reported US consumer credit (DOWN US$9.5 Billion or 4.5%) seems to have caused a 115 point slump in the DOW in the last 30mins - finished down 20 odd points. 







> U.S. consumers shed debt for the first time in 11 months in August, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Consumers lowered their debt by a seasonally adjusted $9.5 billion, or at a 4.6% annual rate, in August. This is the biggest decline since April 2010.



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-credit-drops-for-first-time-in-11-months-2011-10-07

Interesting FTSE / DOW index gyrations last night eh? LOL.

Based on their respective weak closures, I'd be surprised if the All Ords soared on Monday....


----------



## lenny (8 October 2011)

Has the spi gapped up the last 3 days?

My XJO data through paritech shows no gaps.

Does anyone have spi futures data?


----------



## wayneL (8 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Has the spi gapped up the last 3 days?
> 
> My XJO data through paritech shows no gaps.
> 
> Does anyone have spi futures data?




Because of the way the share market has a staggered opening, the opening bar on XJO is erroneous and not reflective of a true open as if all stocks started trading simultaneously.

SPI is reflective of this and hence will have gaps that don't show on XJO.


----------



## Ves (8 October 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Well, it didn't take long for that "bad" news to arrive.....after 3pm a big slump in reported US consumer credit (DOWN US$9.5 Billion or 4.5%) seems to have caused a 115 point slump in the DOW in the last 30mins - finished down 20 odd points.  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-credit-drops-for-first-time-in-11-months-2011-10-07
> 
> Interesting FTSE / DOW index gyrations last night eh? LOL.
> 
> Based on their respective weak closures, I'd be surprised if the All Ords soared on Monday....



Very indecisive end to the week. Hard to know what our market will do next with no stand-out leads on Monday.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 October 2011)

It is likely that the last thirty minutes of trading on the djia will be the "lead" into the opening on the xao on Monday.

After all it was the last 30 minutes of trade earlier in the week (4th), when the djia swung from 160 points down to 150 points up, that saw our markets rally 100+ points the following day.




I would prefer that the xao mood/action is counter balanced by the rallies in Europe and holds at the present level rather than plunges.


----------



## lenny (9 October 2011)

Swing chart of XJO

Although the counter trend rally over the past 3 days was strong nothing really has changed with a* lower high at 4232 still in place*.

Other points of confluence that should see the down trend resume to the down side are some gaps left behind on the spi that need to be filled.

Will we get a test of Aug 9th low ??????







The SPI closed -26 Friday night so looks like a red monday and a lower degree lower high.


----------



## LostMyShirt (9 October 2011)

The recent downgrade of the EU Banks may see the EU markets in the red for Monday - perhaps the ASX will be the first to respond by consolidating. As far as the chart goes - there is still a possibility for a run up to resistance at 4400. At least thats what I think....


----------



## nomore4s (10 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Other points of confluence that should see the down trend resume to the down side are some gaps left behind on the spi that need to be filled.




There is always gaps on the SPI and they don't always get filled. Gaps on indexes like SPI tend to have different characteristics then on a stock.


----------



## lenny (10 October 2011)

Hi Nomores, 

I understand the SPI trades differently to stocks but alot of the major stocks like wbc,nab,cba,bhp,rio,org,org,wor,wpl,sun,ago,fmg  are also showing gaps which imo will need to filled which will see the whole index have a deep retracement/resume the down trend.

This is just my thoughts anyway.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> It is likely that the last thirty minutes of trading on the djia will be the "lead" into the opening on the xao on Monday.
> 
> After all it was the last 30 minutes of trade earlier in the week (4th), when the djia swung from 160 points down to 150 points up, that saw our markets rally 100+ points the following day.
> 
> ...




Looks like the mood counterbalanced plus a bit more. Happy to be wrong (again) in this instance. Panic on hold for now with trailing stop losses and fingers poised to sell into any spikes or to "smart" people buying bargains creating further run ups.


----------



## LostMyShirt (10 October 2011)

Tht run-up to 4400 is starting to look like a reality - I honestly thought today would be a down day due to the Moodys downgrade of the EU banks. Well I suppose there is still time for the EU markets to respond


----------



## Starcraftmazter (10 October 2011)

Honestly, I don't think anyone gives two ****s about the ratings agencies these days.


----------



## LostMyShirt (10 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Honestly, I don't think anyone gives two ****s about the ratings agencies these days.




I was thinking the same thing earlier but came to an awkward question; they gave a **** for the US credit rating and the market responded, but now the EU disregards the downgrade of their majour banks. 

Oh well, thats a good thing isn't it? We won't have to deal with a tank on such unimportant news.


----------



## drsmith (10 October 2011)

Somewhere important to Australia is still heading south.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 October 2011)

Time to panic about the reverse tanking?  Seems like a bubble may have formed and be approaching "pop" levels.




It shows clearly on the djia interday chart, the djia opened 200+ points higher and was motoring along fairly steadily until another upsurge before close. Anyone got a pin?


----------



## Logique (11 October 2011)

ASX is tanking?  Not today it won't.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (11 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I was thinking the same thing earlier but came to an awkward question; they gave a **** for the US credit rating and the market responded, but now the EU disregards the downgrade of their majour banks.




I believe at the time the market was falling on EU problems, unrelated to the US.


----------



## kavla1970 (11 October 2011)

Is this rally just a bear trap? My long term view is still bearish. Do others feel this?


----------



## investorpaul (11 October 2011)

Logique said:


> ASX is tanking?  Not today it won't.




I thought we would have a down day yesterday. Then after we closed green I thought today may be down.... but no Mr Market keeps going.

We need to have a couple of small down days to consolidate, before pushing higher IMO if this short term move up is going to last.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (11 October 2011)

LostMyShirt said:


> I was thinking the same thing earlier but came to an awkward question; they gave a **** for the US credit rating and the market responded, but now the EU disregards the downgrade of their majour banks.
> 
> Oh well, thats a good thing isn't it? We won't have to deal with a tank on such unimportant news.




Two different situations. In one, you have a government downgraded - one which held onto its AAA for many years and had the reputation of a 'safe haven'. As many institutions must hold a portion of investments as AAA this would have forced sell offs and added to the gloom. 

With the downgrade of the banks, everyone knew those banks were exposed and that their balance sheets weren't clean - it was only a matter of time. The ratings agencies shut the door after the horses had bolted. It might have some impact on local stocks, but minimal on the global stage.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (11 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> Is this rally just a bear trap? My long term view is still bearish. Do others feel this?




Doesn't Slovakia vote today on the EFSF? We will find out shortly then.


----------



## kavla1970 (11 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Doesn't Slovakia vote today on the EFSF? We will find out shortly then.




The whole world on a thread! It's a deck of cards............


----------



## lenny (11 October 2011)

Slovakia votes NO to efsf!

Watch out below.


----------



## notting (11 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Slovakia votes NO to efsf!




When?


----------



## 6figures (11 October 2011)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...summit-amid-tension-over-greek-writedown.html

this dragged shares back..


----------



## Boggo (11 October 2011)

Follow on from here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23227&p=662747&viewfull=1#post662747

So close today, one more up day and we are in new stage and potentially positive territory.

(click to expand)


----------



## LostMyShirt (12 October 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Two different situations. In one, you have a government downgraded - one which held onto its AAA for many years and had the reputation of a 'safe haven'. As many institutions must hold a portion of investments as AAA this would have forced sell offs and added to the gloom.
> 
> With the downgrade of the banks, everyone knew those banks were exposed and that their balance sheets weren't clean - it was only a matter of time. The ratings agencies shut the door after the horses had bolted. It might have some impact on local stocks, but minimal on the global stage.




Oh I see - I've generalized the entire situation I suppose.

Thanks for that.

On a side note - up day on the ASX tomorrow is the DOW holds up. Rare sight to see the DAX almost at 6K


----------



## notting (13 October 2011)

Wow. 
So these are the stairs!
Can't wait to see what the elevators like


----------



## alexc2005 (13 October 2011)

Time to jump on the CO2 offset and storage bandwagon.


----------



## young-gun (13 October 2011)

bank of queensland announced a 14% drop in full year net profit as their bad debt doubles. and so it begins?


----------



## young-gun (13 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Slovakia votes NO to efsf!
> 
> Watch out below.




http://www.skynews.com.au/businessnews/article.aspx?id=672689&vId=

the votes now 'yes'


----------



## investorpaul (13 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> http://www.skynews.com.au/businessnews/article.aspx?id=672689&vId=
> 
> the votes now 'yes'




If people just read past the headlines originally they would know there was no reason to panic.

The parliament basically voted no in order to force a general election as the original vote was tided to a vote of confidence in the government (as the above article also mentions). 

It was always their intention to vote yes after this


----------



## jonp (13 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Time to jump on the CO2 offset and storage bandwagon.




COZ seems to be the best option...


----------



## Tysonboss1 (13 October 2011)

jonp said:


> COZ seems to be the best option...




Maybe if it ever starts turning a profit and stops leaking cash, it's bleeding $13,000 a day.

To me it reeks of a fly by night type company, that will jump on any industry it sees as sexy. it's been listed since 1990, what was it doing before it jumped on the co2 band wagon.


----------



## alexc2005 (13 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Maybe if it ever starts turning a profit and stops leaking cash, it's bleeding $13,000 a day.
> 
> To me it reeks of a fly by night type company, that will jump on any industry it sees as sexy. it's been listed since 1990, what was it doing before it jumped on the co2 band wagon.




I would say that CCF is a better choice.

Currently doing pretty well out of it. Lots of new contracts to come.

Haven't looked into it as of yet, was just on the bull newsletter this morning.


----------



## notting (13 October 2011)

Amazing how China's surplus shrinks as soon as there is strong debate about them cheating!!  It just goes way up again as soon as things have quietened down.

"Chinese copper inventories stood at 1.9 million tons at the end of 2010, more than the US consumes in a year, *according to estimates by the state-backed China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association.* The estimate is significantly higher than the 1.0-1.5 million tons range that foreign executives have assumed in the past."

*Blatant attempt at keeping copper prices dow*n so they can make some big purchases again!! before the markets hot up again.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (13 October 2011)

notting said:


> "Chinese copper inventories stood at 1.9 million tons at the end of 2010, more than the US consumes in a year, .




Isn't that because most of USA's doodads are made in china? Woundn't it be better to compare it to chinas rate of consumption?


----------



## sinner (13 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Isn't that because most of USA's doodads are made in china? Woundn't it be better to compare it to chinas rate of consumption?




Take a look at this article from Michael Pettis, a well known and "on-site" China macroeconomic commentator and professor...

http://mpettis.com/2011/05/looking-for-debt/



> He [the trader] said that on March, clothes makers, food manufacturers, and others who have never bought copper before were massively buying copper from the tariff-protected warehouses, in Guangdong for example.  The warehouses are in China, but tariffs on the goods there haven’t been paid yet, and any purchase from one of these warehouses is regarded as an import.
> 
> These enterprises purchased copper just to get L/C financing, in which banks finance the purchase of the imports for 90 days. This costs the buyer 30 bps.  If they defer repayment to 180 days, they pay an additional 40 bps.  The import is settled in dollars, which means that the buyer has a dollar liability due in 180 days, but can sell copper today for RMB.  The interest cost for the L/C is around 1.4% annualized, so that even when LME copper trades at a premium to Shanghai copper, the all-in borrowing cost is greatly mitigated by the low cost of L/C and any RMB appreciation.
> 
> ...




That was printed May 2011...the article goes into great depth on the issue.

EDIT: The point is (sorry, I forgot to write the point) the vaunted Chinese "copper demand" isn't what it seems at all, certainly not being imported for productive purposes.


----------



## Boggo (13 October 2011)

I don't believe we are in the clear just yet until we clear that 78.6% retracement area. As is likely in a five wave sequence it is a hurdle that has to be overcome to complete the sequence prior to the resistance around both wave 1 and 2.

The XJO closed right on the line today. 

Hesitation around this level may not be a positive indication.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (13 October 2011)

Agree
Can't see a full blown bull market just yet.
More correcting yet.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (14 October 2011)

sinner said:


> EDIT: The point is (sorry, I forgot to write the point) the vaunted Chinese "copper demand" isn't what it seems at all, certainly not being imported for productive purposes.




So how many months supply do the have inventory.


----------



## sinner (14 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> So how many months supply do the have inventory.




Who knows. Point is, most of the inventory is held by companies who *don't* use copper to produce things.

"Clothes makers, food manufacturers, and others who have never bought copper before were massively buying copper from the tariff-protected warehouses, in Guangdong for example"


----------



## Tysonboss1 (15 October 2011)

sinner said:


> Who knows. Point is, most of the inventory is held by companies who *don't* use copper to produce things.
> 
> "Clothes makers, food manufacturers, and others who have never bought copper before were massively buying copper from the tariff-protected warehouses, in Guangdong for example"




It would just interesting to know how long it would take the people who are using copper to burn of the inventory if all those speccy players sold off their holdings, 

In regards to people holding the metal that don't actually do anything with it or consume it, to me that sounds a bit like gold.


----------



## LostMyShirt (16 October 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> It would just interesting to know how long it would take the people who are using copper to burn of the inventory if all those speccy players sold off their holdings,
> 
> In regards to people holding the metal that don't actually do anything with it or consume it, to me that sounds a bit like gold.




Lol, this made me chuckle and nod my head in agreement. Gold is probably the most expensive useless item in the world. Though it does have uses, it does not justify the price imo. Oh well, let the good times roll!


----------



## lenny (18 October 2011)

Looks as if the market has fully priced a Europe fix for the coming sunday, anything less i think market will react negatively.

Till we get confirmation of trend change i wait and watch.


----------



## LostMyShirt (18 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Looks as if the market has fully priced a Europe fix for the coming sunday, anything less i think market will react negatively.
> 
> Till we get confirmation of trend change i wait and watch.




Indeed.

A fallback or full blown Tank is not out of the question as of yet. Personally I wouldn't like to run the weekend risk, as would many others; expect Friday consolidation as per usual.


----------



## willstor (18 October 2011)

Interesting now looking to the US tomorrow - will Apple provide a boost? 
some seriously negative stuff being said about China isn't there?

Today I sold the market early, then made the stupid mistake of calling 4,200 as the bottom and thought we'd get a dead cat bounce.

Sold the ASX at 4,190 now it will probably rebound massively  I should leave this stuff to those who know more LOL


----------



## young-gun (18 October 2011)

lenny said:


> Looks as if the market has fully priced a Europe fix for the coming sunday, anything less i think market will react negatively.
> 
> Till we get confirmation of trend change i wait and watch.





I'm unsure exactly what people are expecting to come out of europe. There is literally nothing that they can say or do that fixes their problems. They may 'print' some more money, which simply "kicks the can" and worsens the problem. IMO if the market had correctly priced in europe we'd be sitting at 3500 or less


----------



## Ves (18 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> I'm unsure exactly what people are expecting to come out of europe. There is literally nothing that they can say or do that fixes their problems. They may 'print' some more money, which simply "kicks the can" and worsens the problem. IMO if the market had correctly priced in europe we'd be sitting at 3500 or less



Any specific reason for 3500?


----------



## Boggo (18 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> I'm unsure exactly what people are expecting to come out of europe. There is literally nothing that they can say or do that fixes their problems. They may 'print' some more money, which simply "kicks the can" and worsens the problem. IMO if the market had correctly priced in europe we'd be sitting at 3500 or less




I don't think that we have seen the end of this yet, nor are we aware of what is really going on.

Finland is the most financially secure of all of the Eurozone countries, they stand out from the rest for both their financial security and their geographical location from the rest of the countries involved.
They are being asked to provide support to financial basket cases such as Greece and they are refusing to get involved any more than they have to.
They are actually threatening to pull out of the Eurozone group if any more pressure is applied, if they bail out this could be the beginning of the end for the Euro group.

The public service run social welfare basket case known as Greece is also threatening to withdraw, if that happens then it could take down the economy of Germany and any other lenders so they have no choice other than throwing more money at it, a bit like lending to a drunken gambler really.

I don't think that we have seen the end (or the actual reality) of this European situation just yet and the only white knights are those that are already in deep due to lending.

My


----------



## Aussiejeff (18 October 2011)

WOE-'R-US...


----------



## Boggo (18 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> I don't think that we have seen the end (or the actual reality) of this European situation just yet and the only white knights are those that are already in deep due to lending.
> 
> My




And now Moody's are about to downgrade France's credit rating !


----------



## nulla nulla (18 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> And now Moody's are about to downgrade France's credit rating !




Not to worry, the rest of the world is about to downgrade Moody's, Standard & Poor and Fitch's.


----------



## IFocus (18 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Not to worry, the rest of the world is about to downgrade Moody's, Standard & Poor and Fitch's.





LOL classic expect they would rate FFF-


----------



## kavla1970 (18 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> The public service run social welfare basket case known as Greece is also threatening to withdraw, if that happens then it could take down the economy of Germany and any other lenders so they have no choice other than throwing more money at it, a bit like lending to a drunken gambler really.




Speaking to  few Greeks friends in Greece that I know, they don't want the Bailouts and haven't wanted help since 2009 but the Government *insists* that they need it. There have been a handful of wealthy Greeks who have made quite a bit of money out of this mess and the average man has not. The Greeks don't have the Centrelink benefits we have here(only a pension of $300-$400 euro's a month in their 50's) but they do have a high public service force that needs to cut back as they cannot sustain that at present. It's(Greece) main heartbeat is small business which is crumbling at present.

The Greeks have always had a hap hazzard economy, devaluing the Drachma when it suited them. And it did them fine. However, I wonder if the Government in 2000 realised their days were numbered(and flexibility cut) when they joined the Euro? Did Spain, Italy or Portugal realise either? I don't think they cared. Or maybe it was done on purpose?

The biggest problem is not if the Greeks default but the ramifications that follow. The Germans and Dutch who lent the money in the first place(and were paid quite well when the Greeks paid a majority back in buying German exports) insured themselves against a default to my knowledge. The banks in the US took the other side to that transaction. Not good for the US. 

Best to let them default like Iceland and Argentina. They are OK and so will the Greeks be if they go back to the Drachma. And if the Euro is as strong as they say it is, well it's current members will be fine. But you see, the others are rumbling now. Ireland will be the next whipping boy and then Spain, Italy and Portgual.

It's the domino effect the IMF is worried about not the default of one country.


----------



## Aussiejeff (18 October 2011)

IFocus said:


> LOL classic expect they would rate FFF-




I rate them FFS often...


----------



## kavla1970 (18 October 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> I rate them FFS often...





    lol


----------



## Boggo (18 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> The Greeks don't have the Centrelink benefits we have here(only a pension of $300-$400 euro's a month in their 50's) but they do have a high public service force that needs to cut back as they cannot sustain that at present.




I suppose they really don't need Centrelink, all you have to do is work in a "dangerous job" for a few years and you are set.

Read down through the second, third and fourth para of this...
http://chasblogspot.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-greece-is-in-trouble-and-warning.html


----------



## kavla1970 (18 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> I suppose they really don't need Centrelink, all you have to do is work in a "dangerous job" for a few years and you are set.
> 
> Read down through the second, third and fourth para of this...
> http://chasblogspot.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-greece-is-in-trouble-and-warning.html




Unfortunately there are parts of our society that has this attitude too. 

I agree there is a problem with expecting to much from the Government and there are alot of areas, believe me, that Greece needs to fix up. But what is happening in Greece now has also alot to do with corrupt Governments and officials  who have made an absolute fortune (and are not accountable)and want the average guy who ate some crumbs to pay.

I wonder if we didn't have China and the resource sector,would Australia be in the same boat? Are we heading this way? 

Makes me think.


----------



## Boggo (18 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> Unfortunately there are parts of our society that has this attitude too.




Big difference between attitude and reality, hopefully we will have an election before our attitude becomes a greek tragedy.


----------



## willstor (19 October 2011)

Got out for the night at 4,180 having sold CFD at 4,190, ended the day flat

US market rebounds again, Apple results were decent, European bail out received positive news again.

Expecting a rebound - looking at buying at the opening bell 4,242 to get out with a quick buck at 4,250.


----------



## sammy84 (19 October 2011)

willstor said:


> Got out for the night at 4,180 having sold CFD at 4,190, ended the day flat
> 
> US market rebounds again, Apple results were decent, European bail out received positive news again.
> 
> Expecting a rebound - looking at buying at the opening bell 4,242 to get out with a quick buck at 4,250.




Apple is currently down 6.3% in after hours. Coupled with Moody's doing a fresh round of downgrades (i.e Spain) the news isn't great. Let's hope this doesn't weigh on the XAO today.


----------



## willstor (19 October 2011)

willstor said:


> Got out for the night at 4,180 having sold CFD at 4,190, ended the day flat
> 
> US market rebounds again, Apple results were decent, European bail out received positive news again.
> 
> Expecting a rebound - looking at buying at the opening bell 4,242 to get out with a quick buck at 4,250.




meh, in at 225 out at 226 was hoping for a bigger initial bounce oh well


----------



## Nonchalant (19 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> I suppose they really don't need Centrelink, all you have to do is work in a "dangerous job" for a few years and you are set.
> 
> Read down through the second, third and fourth para of this...
> http://chasblogspot.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-greece-is-in-trouble-and-warning.html




Oh god, what a rort. 

Some more food for thought. Check this. Another rort, i.e., it's embedded in the Greek constitution that public service employees cannot be dismissed. 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44944435

Let the volatility in the market continue!


----------



## kavla1970 (19 October 2011)

Nonchalant said:


> Oh god, what a rort.
> 
> Some more food for thought. Check this. Another rort, i.e., it's embedded in the Greek constitution that public service employees cannot be dismissed.
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/44944435
> ...




That was a law implemented at the start of the century because people lost their jobs with each government change over. Yet at the same time the article does highlight that the Greeks work longer hours than other European members but not as efficiently... whatever that means.: So I don't know who the writer is trying to blame.

The biggest problem here(IMO) is that practically all of the developed countries are in debt and they don't know how to get out of it. The biggest is the USA ($14 Trillion). And each is blaming the other without looking in their own backyard. And the media don't seem to be asking the right questions.


----------



## Boggo (19 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> That was a law implemented at the start of the century because people lost their jobs with each government change over. Yet at the same time the article does highlight that the Greeks work longer hours than other European members but not as efficiently... whatever that means.




This is how the Greek public service grew to to the point where it is now considered a paid holiday camp and hence the level of efficiency.
Click on this link - How not to run a business

PS - This what is going on at QAN at the moment, Joyce gets a 70% pay rise and 1000 frontline staff have to go to reduce costs !!!


----------



## kavla1970 (19 October 2011)

Boggo said:


> This is how the Greek public service grew to to the point where it is now considered a paid holiday camp and hence the level of efficiency.
> Click on this link - How not to run a business
> 
> PS - This what is going on at QAN at the moment, Joyce gets a 70% pay rise and 1000 frontline staff have to go to reduce costs !!!




True.


----------



## Nonchalant (19 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> That was a law implemented at the start of the century because people lost their jobs with each government change over. Yet at the same time the article does highlight that the Greeks work longer hours than other European members but not as efficiently... whatever that means.: So I don't know who the writer is trying to blame.
> 
> The biggest problem here(IMO) is that practically all of the developed countries are in debt and they don't know how to get out of it. The biggest is the USA ($14 Trillion). And each is blaming the other without looking in their own backyard. And the media don't seem to be asking the right questions.




Hey Kavla

The law was implemented at the start of *last* century, not this century. An important distinction due to there being numerous changes of govt since without the whole public service being summarily dismissed. Therefore, why hasn't the constitution been changed? Herein lies a problem. Why would a people so reliant and dependent on government even contemplate changing the constitution. Bad, bad decision by whoever floated the notion of a guaranteed job for life. 

The article does state that the Greeks who do work (lowest participation rate in all Europe) work longer hours yet produce/achieve less than their counterparts in Europe, i.e., they are less productive. 

I love the reference to "white strikes" in the article.  “white strikes,” when employees go to the office but don’t actually do any work.) Hilarious, just like any other day in the public service. 

I do agree that corruption is rife in Greece. Teamed with a bloated public service and rampant tax evasion, it does not auger well for Greece. The pollies need to take a broad sword to the public service rather than hack at it from the periphery. 

Cheers


----------



## Ves (19 October 2011)

Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in? 

Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...


----------



## Julia (19 October 2011)

Ves said:


> Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...



 Probably for a good reason, Ves, given such a prediction.


----------



## notting (19 October 2011)

He's probably extending the line on the bull that ran out of puff in 2007, thinking how, longer term, crashes end up looking like Vs. With all the printing going on it's not totally silly, bigger numbers but no more valuable.
Paul Keating, the greatest, said the contraction would last for seven years at the start of the crash so it might take a bit longer.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 October 2011)

Ves said:


> Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in?
> 
> Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...




He used be my plumber when I lived in Florida.

He knows the S bend inside out.

http://www.manta.com/g/mt425zl/cliff-bennett

gg


----------



## willstor (20 October 2011)

ASX heading for 2 day low today? Or will the BHP takeover talks prop things up?

2 day low IMO. People have been far too optimistic re Europe as demostrated by the comments by ppl above.


----------



## mr. jeff (20 October 2011)

willstor said:


> ASX heading for 2 day low today? Or will the BHP takeover talks prop things up?
> 
> 2 day low IMO. People have been far too optimistic re Europe as demostrated by the comments by ppl above.



 What do you think about the chances of a major retest of lows over the next week ? Right back down to the




bottom of the range ? Starting to look ripe!


----------



## lenny (20 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> What do you think about the chances of a major retest of lows over the next week ?




Better than average!

Market has priced in a Europe fix on sunday, anything less and we could get a huge reversal to the downside monday.


----------



## kavla1970 (20 October 2011)

Nonchalant said:


> Hey Kavla
> 
> The law was implemented at the start of *last* century, not this century. An important distinction due to there being numerous changes of govt since without the whole public service being summarily dismissed. Therefore, why hasn't the constitution been changed? Herein lies a problem. Why would a people so reliant and dependent on government even contemplate changing the constitution. Bad, bad decision by whoever floated the notion of a guaranteed job for life.
> 
> ...




I'm still getting my head around this century...  Thanks for the pick up.

I guess my argument in all of this whether it's Greece or Spain or Italy etc the issues we face are Global Debt problems. (Greece really needs to eliminate this job for life clause)

If it was just one country in debt and dragging the rest down I would be the first to say "Hey clean up your act". In fact, if it was just one country, the world would ignore them and wouldn't lend to them in the first place. To compete Countries have to adapt. Look at us, we have little manufacturing left because there are cheaper alternatives world wide. Is it a good thing? Time will tell.

But the problems that will lead the global markets into freefall I believe are the debts accruing in the USA and in other developed countries. This is not the fault on one little country but of these major countries(Politicians who can't even balance their own bank accounts let alone a country) not managing their money, allowing bankers to run riot and not practicing risk management at a Global level.

Though one country can set off a chain of events that can see other countries fall over. It's all a worry.


----------



## Chasero (20 October 2011)

Worst case scenario would be more disagreement and lack of plans... Wall St going to sink or rally...?

I'm guessing sink, these pols can't make up their minds!


----------



## kavla1970 (20 October 2011)

Chasero said:


> Worst case scenario would be more disagreement and lack of plans... Wall St going to sink or rally...?
> 
> I'm guessing sink, these pols can't make up their minds!




I see resistance at 4300-4350.

I'm no expert (and always defer to those in the know)but my system is still bearish(long term) at the moment.


----------



## Chasero (20 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> I see resistance at 4300-4350.
> 
> I'm no expert (and always defer to those in the know)but my system is still bearish at the moment.




Yes I've already closed half my positions out last week, and all my positions out on Monday. (posted in the October thread).

In the short term at least there is a very high probability of a pullback.

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/?p=2508

Lots of bloggers have the view we'll see a sharp pullback.

I am thinking of buying in either next Monday or Tuesday, depending on how the charts are looking. (especially if the week closes down sharply) But we will see.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (20 October 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> The biggest problem here(IMO) is that practically all of the developed countries are in debt and they don't know how to get out of it. The biggest is the USA ($14 Trillion). And each is blaming the other without looking in their own backyard. And the media don't seem to be asking the right questions.




US debt now closer to $15TRILLION or 100% debt to GDP!



Chasero said:


> Worst case scenario would be more disagreement and lack of plans... Wall St going to sink or rally...?
> 
> I'm guessing sink, these pols can't make up their minds!




The Fed has deep pockets, but not sure if they can hold up the markets, anymore, in the face of a capitulation ie a 1000 point drop in the Dow? It's warming up - cooler in shorts


----------



## VSntchr (20 October 2011)

Regardless of what happens with the supposed 'plans' that are soon to be unveiled...slow growth/recession is inevitable in many parts of the world..no matter how great or bad the policies are that come out...2012 is not going to be a great year IMO...

Shorts are coming into season arent they uncy


----------



## kavla1970 (20 October 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> US debt now closer to $15TRILLION or 100% debt to GDP!
> 
> 
> 
> The Fed has deep pockets, but not sure if they can hold up the markets, anymore, in the face of a capitulation ie a 1000 point drop in the Dow? It's warming up - cooler in shorts




Yes this printing money business will just cause inflation in the US and reduce the value of the US dollar. Mess mess.

Maybe it's what they want to do to short change the Chinese who have invested heavily in US T-Bills.


----------



## skc (20 October 2011)

Ves said:


> Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in?
> 
> Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...




We can get there easily with some hyperinflation.

Apparaently the German stock market went up ~95x in 3 years during 1920s. Too bad inflation was like 1000x so it didn't quite cover the reduction in purchasing power.


----------



## Gundini (20 October 2011)

Ves said:


> Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in?
> 
> Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...




Peter Switzer is one of Australia’s leading business and financial commentators, launching his own business 20 years ago. The Switzer Group has since grown into three successful companies spanning media and publishing, financial services and business coaching.

Peter is an award-winning broadcaster, twice runner up for the Best Current Affairs Commentator award for radio, behind broadcaster Alan Jones. A former lecturer in economics at the University of NSW, Peter is currently
 •weekly columnist for Yahoo!7 Finance
•a regular contributor to The Australian newspaper
•host of Talking Business for the Qantas in-flight service, Radio Q
•finance commentator on Vega FM
•host of his own TV show, Switzer, on SKY News Business Channel

From this website: http://www.switzer.com.au/


----------



## willstor (20 October 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> What do you think about the chances of a major retest of lows over the next week ? Right back down to the
> 
> View attachment 44924
> 
> ...




You could well be right - depends what  noises we see from Europe etc 

I think it'll rebound slightly Monday morning if we hear positive noises, otherwise we really are in for a big fall and I shouldn't have cashed in my short position today


----------



## Julia (20 October 2011)

Gundini said:


> Peter Switzer is one of Australia’s leading business and financial commentators, launching his own business 20 years ago. The Switzer Group has since grown into three successful companies spanning media and publishing, financial services and business coaching......



Ves might like to clarify, but I took his comment


> Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in?




as referring to Clifford Bennett, not Peter Switzer.


----------



## Gundini (20 October 2011)

Julia said:


> Ves might like to clarify, but I took his comment
> 
> 
> as referring to Clifford Bennett, not Peter Switzer.




You are correct Julia, I misread the question, thanks for pointing it out.

Bennett is a currency expert on Switzer's site and well respected according to his bio:

Clifford Bennett has been ranked “the world’s most accurate currency forecaster” by Bloomberg News New York, out of a survey of the top seventy investment banks and think-tanks.


----------



## Ves (20 October 2011)

Was after who Bennett was, but thanks for the extra information on Switzer. I found it interesting.


----------



## young-gun (20 October 2011)

Ves said:


> Any specific reason for 3500?




just a very rough guess..we had a low of 3091 at the eye of the gfc...the only reason it bottomed there was because the governments started their stimilus plans. When europe goes i wouldnt expect it to have a move of that magnitude on it's own. but rest assured once the US go under which wont be shortly after europe you'll see lows of maybe 3000...and then the nail in the coffin will be china's HARD(not soft) landing which could probably see us to around 2500? it's hard to tell who will go first, china or the US. just depends how rapidly china deteriorates. once again this is just my opinion! i'm sure majority of people will strongly disagree.


----------



## young-gun (20 October 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> US debt now closer to $15TRILLION or 100% debt to GDP!
> 
> 
> 
> The Fed has deep pockets, but not sure if they can hold up the markets, anymore, in the face of a capitulation ie a 1000 point drop in the Dow? It's warming up - cooler in shorts




15 tril is just the government debt. public and finance sector debt combined with unfunded liabilities total in excess of 60 tril. the feds "deep pockets" has just created an even bigger problem than if they had of just let it go. Europe included. We need to ditch Keynes' theory and realise it doesnt work and never will work long term(over decades).


----------



## Starcraftmazter (21 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> 15 tril is just the government debt. public and finance sector debt combined with unfunded liabilities total in excess of 60 tril. the feds "deep pockets" has just created an even bigger problem than if they had of just let it go. Europe included. We need to ditch Keynes' theory and realise it doesnt work and never will work long term(over decades).




And let's not forget the $250Tn derivative market - more than double the size of the entire world's GDP, 95% of which is held by the big 5.


----------



## willstor (21 October 2011)

Not sure why the S & P 500 and ASX CFD prices have jumped a little this morning....all the news is very poor - even Gadaffi cant be completely good news - we have no idea what infrastructure is left or whether peace will break out straight away.

I am a big bear today for sure


----------



## young-gun (21 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> And let's not forget the $250Tn derivative market - more than double the size of the entire world's GDP, 95% of which is held by the big 5.




My reading hasn't lead me there yet.. Will look into it on the weekend

Dow was marginally up over night.. I'm backing flat to small losses depending on news throughout the day.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (21 October 2011)

willstor said:


> Not sure why the S & P 500 and ASX CFD prices have jumped a little this morning....all the news is very poor




Unsubstantiated rumour that EFSF will be able to buy bonds of EU countries in secondary markets.


----------



## willstor (21 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Unsubstantiated rumour that EFSF will be able to buy bonds of EU countries in secondary markets.




Ah ok fair enough.
Possibly more flat than i first thought today it seems.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 October 2011)

The djia bounced 267 overnight on the euphoria that Europe might get it's act together with their bailout and funding plans. Talk about irrational exuberance. The US sovereign debt is so far underwater (like their collatorised debt obligations and ninja loan based "prime" mortgages) and yet the djia is climbing back toward 12,000.




Kind of ironic that our xao is struggling at 4200. The aussie banks should be up on monday (unless of course there is some discord in Europe over the weekend).


----------



## Logique (22 October 2011)

Irrational exhuberance about right. 

Been caught before by the US results season, a few US companies report well and the US market lifts, only to fall flat afterwards. Current examples IBM, Apple, Citi, BofA.


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Talk about irrational exuberance. *The US sovereign debt is so far underwater (like their collatorised debt obligations and ninja loan based "prime" mortgages) and yet the djia is climbing back toward 12,000*.




Might be Mr Market's last desperate gasp for life-giving air before the heavy debt sinks him to the deeps?


----------



## willstor (22 October 2011)

oh well the way things are going Monday should be easy enough.

Scalp trade the ASX upwards. Not gonna hold a position due to the bouncability (is that a word) of the markets. 

Got a small selling position on the SP500 for the predictable downturn when something negative happens...if the level goes past 1250 i'll sell some more of it but i doubt that'll happen, not Christmas yet!


----------



## young-gun (22 October 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Might be Mr Market's last desperate gasp for life-giving air before the heavy debt sinks him to the deeps?




Haha.. This will be about his fifth 'last gasp'? I'm sure they'll fill his floaties with a fresh bailout that will somehow be different from previous b/o's 

Unfortunately floaties are no good in a tsunami


----------



## tech/a (22 October 2011)

Pretty boring really


----------



## willstor (24 October 2011)

interesting how the us index has only fallen 3% yet the asx has fallen far further and the banks in aussie who are far better off due to their lending criteria are about to to announce impressive profits.

Positive noises this weekend from Europe are going to result ina very decent one day bounce IMO. Futures is at 4,202...I doubt market will open that high - there's a quick buck there Monday AM for the bulls.


----------



## nulla nulla (24 October 2011)

Sell into todays rises and buy back in with the next retrace (panic sell off).


----------



## Starcraftmazter (24 October 2011)

willstor said:


> interesting how the us index has only fallen 3% yet the asx has fallen far further and the banks in aussie who are far better off due to their lending criteria are about to to announce impressive profits.




How are our banks better off? They are immensely exposed to the aussie housing bubble which is yet to pop.

How are they going to achieve profit *growth* when there have been virtually no new home loans over the last several months? Financing is totally flat.

The market isn't stupid.



Also, what good news from Europe? Looks more of the same plan for a plan nonsense. When are they actually going to announce any real plan? They could be planning for a massive Greek default which will have unforeseen global repercussions for all we know.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...and-backbiting-in-the-corridors-of-power.html

What part of that is good?


----------



## willstor (24 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> How are our banks better off? They are immensely exposed to the aussie housing bubble which is yet to pop.
> 
> How are they going to achieve profit *growth* when there have been virtually no new home loans over the last several months? Financing is totally flat.
> 
> ...




The sentiment is good - whether Europe sort themselves out this week or the banks are profitable next year or not doesn't matter for today's trading.


----------



## skc (24 October 2011)

willstor said:


> interesting how the us index has only fallen 3% yet the asx has fallen far further and the banks in aussie who are far better off due to their lending criteria are about to to announce impressive profits.




The US has at least a potential QE3 rumour to prop things up a bit. 



Starcraftmazter said:


> How are our banks better off? They are immensely exposed to the aussie housing bubble which is *yet to pop.*
> 
> How are they going to achieve profit *growth* when there have been virtually no new home loans over the last several months? Financing is totally flat.
> 
> The market isn't stupid.




I guess "yet to pop" is better than "already fallen through the floor" as in the US. And at yields of 6.5-7% and PE in single digits, the banks are hardly priced for growth...


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 October 2011)

All sing now.... (I suggest in the style of Herman's Hermit's "No Milk Today")

"No tank today,
The Bear has gone away,
The banks are having fun,
Beneath that Aussie sun..."


----------



## skc (24 October 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> All sing now.... (I suggest in the style of Herman's Hermit's "No Milk Today")
> 
> "No tank today,
> The Bear has gone away,
> ...




How could they know just what this summit means
The end of Greek's hopes, the end of Europe's dreams
How could they know the palace there had been
Behind the door where Goldmans reigned as queen


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 October 2011)

skc said:


> How could they know just what this summit means
> The end of Greek's hopes, the end of Europe's dreams
> How could they know the palace there had been
> Behind the door where Goldmans reigned as queen




skc, skc...


----------



## willstor (24 October 2011)

Unbelievable. 4193-4232 in half an hour on the basis that we 'think' Europe will have a solution.

Keep an eye on the house of commons in the uk and David Cameron's continuing spat with the French - could we see a small slide tomorrow? Futures currently at 4,254 down from 260 - all the good stuff now priced in - you know what that means


----------



## young-gun (24 October 2011)

willstor said:


> Unbelievable. 4193-4232 in half an hour on the basis that we 'think' Europe will have a solution.
> 
> Keep an eye on the house of commons in the uk and David Cameron's continuing spat with the French - could we see a small slide tomorrow? Futures currently at 4,254 down from 260 - all the good stuff now priced in - you know what that means




i'm still at a HUGE loss as to what could be regarded as a positive solution? can someone please enlighten me on what could possibly happen that would fix this, or what could possibly happen for you to think we're good to go? it's clear bail-outs don't work long term, in fact they're barely working short-term, and yet this is all we're going to see.


----------



## tech/a (24 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> i'm still at a HUGE loss as to what could be regarded as a positive solution? can someone please enlighten me on what could possibly happen that would fix this, or what could possibly happen for you to think we're good to go? it's clear bail-outs don't work long term, in fact they're barely working short-term, and yet this is all we're going to see.




The truth is there have to be bailouts.

The alternative--- default will lead to Credit Default swaps being called upon.
So as banks cannot pay their liabilities other banks with totally un related swaps will fail as banks who hold some of their swaps are called up as default comes through no fault of theirs.
So the dominoes will falL so fast that no amount propping will be available.
Simply money will run out and banks---- lots of them will collapse.

Try to imagine what would happen if banks collapsed and Govts couldn't help!

Businesses lose all their funds and operating capability
Now what would that mean to governments?


----------



## young-gun (24 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> The truth is there have to be bailouts.
> 
> The alternative--- default will lead to Credit Default swaps being called upon.
> So as banks cannot pay their liabilities other banks with totally un related swaps will fail as banks who hold some of their swaps are called up as default comes through no fault of theirs.
> ...




i understand the reason for bailouts. but why can't they see that they aren't going to fix anything? i know governments need to appear to be doing something but surely they know their efforts are futile? if they truly had their nations best interests at heart they would stop delaying the inevitable and let deflation take hold. greece IS going to default, they have now created a far worse situation than if they had just taken their medicine in the first place.

what this will mean for governments is a front row seat to the worst depression in history, that will make the 1930's look like a boom.

This is a necessary step in the cycle. It's gotten to a point where the money in your wallet is becoming increasingly worthless day by day. The world economy MUST collapse. This debt creation simply has to cease and correct itself(which it is trying so very hard to do), it's unsustainable and so very very toxic.


----------



## tech/a (24 October 2011)

Sit back then and enjoy the ride


----------



## skc (24 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> This is a necessary step in the cycle. It's gotten to a point where the money in your wallet is becoming increasingly worthless day by day. The world economy MUST collapse. This debt creation simply has to cease and correct itself(which it is trying so very hard to do), it's unsustainable and so very very toxic.




You may be quite correct but it is difficult if not impossible to put a timeframe on the cycle. These are big cycles (30-50yrs) and you can't guess the end with any sort of accuracy. You might be right in the end but you can easily be off by a few years.

Never under-estimate the power of things to muddle through for longer than you imagine.


----------



## PinguPingu (24 October 2011)

Seems like it's default or print.


----------



## young-gun (24 October 2011)

skc said:


> You may be quite correct but it is difficult if not impossible to put a timeframe on the cycle. These are big cycles (30-50yrs) and you can't guess the end with any sort of accuracy. You might be right in the end but you can easily be off by a few years.
> 
> Never under-estimate the power of things to muddle through for longer than you imagine.




Absolutely the cycles are carried out over decades and are largely linked to demographic spending patterns. It honestly is the perfect storm. Whether it happens in two weeks or two years is almost irrelevant. The market will continue to tank and rally with these crazy percanage drops and gains, and surely won't find any stability leading up to such a time? That's not to say there isn't some money to be made(or in my case most likely lost) in this period.

And great point! i honestly didn't believe there would be so much of this muddling you refer to!


----------



## Starcraftmazter (25 October 2011)

willstor said:


> Unbelievable. 4193-4232 in half an hour on the basis that we 'think' Europe will have a solution.




+1, you should have seen my face 

I have not observed the market for very long at all, but neither did I begin yesterday. I understand few-day long rallies are caused by very short-term good information, regardless of how hopeless it all is in the long term.

But there was NO GOOD INFORMATION coming out of this weekend, only bad!



tech/a said:


> Now what would that mean to governments?




"Oh snap, well at least we had a good run".


----------



## willstor (25 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> i understand the reason for bailouts. but why can't they see that they aren't going to fix anything? i know governments need to appear to be doing something but surely they know their efforts are futile? if they truly had their nations best interests at heart they would stop delaying the inevitable and let deflation take hold. greece IS going to default, they have now created a far worse situation than if they had just taken their medicine in the first place.
> 
> what this will mean for governments is a front row seat to the worst depression in history, that will make the 1930's look like a boom.
> 
> This is a necessary step in the cycle. It's gotten to a point where the money in your wallet is becoming increasingly worthless day by day. The world economy MUST collapse. This debt creation simply has to cease and correct itself(which it is trying so very hard to do), it's unsustainable and so very very toxic.




You are quite right re Greece - one way or another they will default, the powers that be are trying to soften the landing and will find it tough.

I'm an Englishman living in kiwiland, left in 2007 and ever since I've witnessed mess after mess and good money thrown after bad at Europe, bond market QE, interest rate cuts etc etc and Europe is still in a mess. One Greece goes attention will turn to Italy...how long can Portugal and Spain hold on if things are bumpy after that - could be a huge game of domino's... (This is why I argued furiously against the Euro at university - one thing Blair did for us was keep the uk from that one - the uk is better off becoming another state of America IMHO) What I think we'll see over 10 years is the weaker countries getting kicked out of the Euro, but all you'll see in the short term is 'buy the rumour sell the fact'.


----------



## lenny (25 October 2011)

The Europe decision is getting ever so close!

Why these markets are being pushed higher beats me risks here are to the down side in a big way, If the bailout package is any less than 2 trillion the markets could come 10%-12% before the end of the week as the markets have now priced a europe fix.

Lets not forget this package will do nothing to stop europe from sliding into reccession anyway!


----------



## alexc2005 (25 October 2011)

lenny said:


> The Europe decision is getting ever so close!
> 
> Why these markets are being pushed higher beats me risks here are to the down side in a big way, If the bailout package is any less than 2 trillion the markets could come 10%-12% before the end of the week as the markets have now priced a europe fix.
> 
> Lets not forget this package will do nothing to stop europe from sliding into reccession anyway!




Yeap, i think I'm going to start reducing my exposure further today.

This rally can only last so long with nothing having really changed. 

When is the europe announcement?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (25 October 2011)

The market is like a highly compressed spring. If it likes the announcement it will spring into life with massive force. If not, it will snap and break.


----------



## willstor (26 October 2011)

No Europe agreement = 2nd day of falls

Having said that the first hour may well be weird so I wont be shorting too early incase we get an early morning bounce followed by a straight line down


----------



## lenny (26 October 2011)

Whats the chances of a 87 like crash tonight?


----------



## notting (26 October 2011)

Sellers have been drying up so unlikely. Just won't be a spectacular tarp like rally. What would the comprehensive solution look like anyway


----------



## lenny (26 October 2011)

Unlikely sellers are the worst kind like margin calls & stop losses induced by a sharp move imo.


----------



## willstor (26 October 2011)

Sold at around 4,185 and bought back just now at 4,176.

100 bucks for a few mins work will do.
Not going to risk the potential of a bounce on the cpi figures, would rather take the gain and run.


----------



## Logique (26 October 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> The market is like a highly compressed spring. If it likes the announcement it will spring into life with massive force. If not, it will snap and break.



Well said. A major turning point is coming. Europe negotiations hadn't ought to disappoint is all I can say. They're good at rhetoric, but can they deliver? How long can the Greece 'default when you're not having a default' drag on? Safety first.


----------



## skyQuake (27 October 2011)

10:13:00 AM	*DJ ASX Says Halted All Trading Indefinitely

THE END IS NEAR


----------



## skc (27 October 2011)

skyQuake said:


> 10:13:00 AM	*DJ ASX Says Halted All Trading Indefinitely
> 
> THE END IS NEAR




Down Down, the Exchange is Down.

May be it's sabotage by Chi-X...


----------



## skc (27 October 2011)

skc said:


> Down Down, the Exchange is Down.
> 
> May be it's sabotage by Chi-X...




Now all trades under review.

Had a couple of good exits already - I bet you they reverse all that and we will have a staggered restart at 11:00


----------



## tminus (27 October 2011)

skc said:


> Now all trades under review.
> :



When there are the technical problems at the exchange are you still able to cancel trades, or is everything in lock down.


----------



## skc (27 October 2011)

tminus said:


> When there are the technical problems at the exchange are you still able to cancel trades, or is everything in lock down.




Cancel trades or cancel orders? 

All trades (already executed) are under review.
All orders are locked.
Your broker would either reject any orders you change now, or hold the changes on their end until the ASX opens again.


----------



## tminus (27 October 2011)

skc said:


> Cancel trades or cancel orders?



Orders

All trades (already executed) are under review.


> All orders are locked.



Thanks


----------



## tech/a (27 October 2011)

SFE still trading---well the ticker is still ticking away


----------



## SilverRanger (27 October 2011)

skc said:


> Down Down, the Exchange is Down.
> 
> May be it's sabotage by Chi-X...




Wouldn't the timing make it too obvious? 

Wonder if there is anyone with quick fingers to short ASX (the company) this morning


----------



## matty77 (27 October 2011)

Please start a  The Official "ASX is broken!" panic thread

lol


----------



## pixel (27 October 2011)

matty77 said:


> Please start a  The Official "ASX is broken!" panic thread
> 
> lol



 good idea 
Today's glitch will be grist on the mill of all those Luddites that want to ban computer-assisted trading. Yeah, right: Let's send smoke signals to the brokers on the floor and deliver contract notes by horse carts or carrier pigeons 
Chi-X connections must rub their hands with glee :


----------



## skc (27 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> SFE still trading---well the ticker is still ticking away




You got to love those SPI traders being able to push the thing around 25 pts with no underlying and very little overseas lead...


----------



## The Falcon (27 October 2011)

geez this is a pretty ordinary, talk about a free kick for Chi-X !


----------



## tminus (27 October 2011)

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8366062/glitch-halts-trade-on-asx


> Sky News is reporting that there will* be no trading on the ASX for the rest of the day*


----------



## LostMyShirt (27 October 2011)

matty77 said:


> Please start a  The Official "ASX is broken!" panic thread
> 
> lol




The only reason I logged onto this thread was to say the same thing.... You beat me to it - WHO ARE YOU WORKING FOR?!


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 October 2011)

ASX is open now.


----------



## vkdirector (27 October 2011)

Dont think it is open. Maybe they might have the asx running in trial mode to see if they have sorted out the bugs/glitch.

But cant trade any stocks at the moment


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 October 2011)

vkdirector said:


> Dont think it is open. Maybe they might have the asx running in trial mode to see if they have sorted out the bugs/glitch.
> 
> But cant trade any stocks at the moment



Trades went through but now in pre-open.


----------



## pixel (27 October 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Trades went through but now in pre-open.



 Break Alert from MDS Financial:


> ASX Advises that all markets will move into Pre Open @ 13:40


----------



## McLovin (27 October 2011)

Pre-open from 1340 open from 1400...


----------



## vkdirector (27 October 2011)

Any news on what the trading hours will be now? Or will it be still 4.00pm close?


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (27 October 2011)

vkdirector said:


> Any news on what the trading hours will be now? Or will it be still 4.00pm close?




ASX will close normal time today.

http://asx.com.au/


----------



## Julia (27 October 2011)

Why is the market up 100 pts?  Has there been an announcement from Europe?
I must have missed something.


----------



## Frank D (27 October 2011)

13:07 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - NEW FIREPOWER OF EFSF IS ABOUT 1.4 TRILLION DOLLARS



Subject:  27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - NEW FIREPOWER OF EFSF IS ABOUT 1.4 TRILLION DOLLARS




12:58 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - EUROZONE HAS ADOPTED A CREDIBLE AND AMBITIOUS RESPONSE  TO THE DEBT CRISIS

13:00 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION WILL ALLOW GREEK DEBT TO  BE REDUCED TO 120% OF GDP IN 2020

13:00 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - PRIVATE HOLDERS OF GREEK DEBT HAVE RENOUNCED 50% OF  ITS VALUE

13:02 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - GOVTS ARE PREPARED TO MOBILISE 30 BLN EUROS TO  ACCOMPANY 100 BLN EUROS FROM PRIVATE SECTOR

13:03 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - AGREEMENT ON EFSF WILL LEVERAGE IT BY FOUR TO FIVE  TIMES

13:04 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - AGREEMENT WITH PRIVATE SECTOR IS VOLUNTARY, DEFAULT IS  EXCLUDED

13:05 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - IN PRINCIPLE, CHINA COULD PARTICIPATE IN NEW EFSF

13:07 27Oct11 RTRS-SARKOZY - NEW FIREPOWER OF EFSF IS ABOUT 1.4 TRILLION DOLLARS


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (27 October 2011)

Julia said:


> Why is the market up 100 pts?  Has there been an announcement from Europe?
> I must have missed something.



http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/eu-leaders-reach-crisis-deal-20111027-1ml87.html

Ok people - crisis (apparently) averted...


----------



## tech/a (27 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> *The truth is there have to be bailouts*.
> 
> The alternative--- default will lead to Credit Default swaps being called upon.
> So as banks cannot pay their liabilities other banks with totally un related swaps will fail as banks who hold some of their swaps are called up as default comes through no fault of theirs.
> ...




*And so then you have it!*


----------



## VSntchr (27 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> *And so then you have it!*




so now what!


----------



## satanoperca (27 October 2011)

VSntchr said:


> so now what!




Wait until the next meltdown, shouldn't be to far away. Italy will also put their hand up for a debt reduction and then Spain and so on and so on and so on.

But for now, XAO is heading up it would seem.

Cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (27 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> Wait until the next meltdown, shouldn't be to far away. Italy will also put their hand up for a debt reduction and then Spain and so on and so on and so on.
> 
> But for now, XAO is heading up it would seem.
> 
> Cheers




The Greek bailout sends the wrong message, to Greece and the rest of the Euro members. "If you can't pay your bills, don't worry we will bail you out". For Greece it is "back to the party". For the rest of the members with problems it is "If you did it for Greece, you have to do it for us".
All care and no responsibility, party, party, party.

This bubble is going to make the GFC look like a pimple. When it collapses........


----------



## notting (27 October 2011)

The reason they appeared to dilly dalli for so long was to get Greece to pass lots of tightening measures before they bailed them out.

Greece is nothing.  They can't bail the others out.

All they are hoping for now is that things will all feel very positive and there will be enough growth, as a result, to shrink the debts and increase GDP & stave off recession.

What will be interesting is to see what the French banks do and how much collateral damage there will be.

I'm thinking to sell in May or January depending on how it looks then.
Everyone wants the markets to go up, that's what there supposed to do.

People can't walk away from Pockie machines and they can't walk away from the market. 
It's pretty simple.

China should rush to buy some stuff as the sales come to an end.


----------



## tech/a (27 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The Greek bailout sends the wrong message, to Greece and the rest of the Euro members. "If you can't pay your bills, don't worry we will bail you out". For Greece it is "back to the party". For the rest of the members with problems it is "If you did it for Greece, you have to do it for us".
> All care and no responsibility, party, party, party.
> 
> This bubble is going to make the GFC look like a pimple. When it collapses........




A nieve view. There are no free lunches. This is a multi pronged solution backed with a large net.The net is there but not used in entirety.
It is very clear to those looking at the Euro solution that Greece is only the very tip.
They are factoring in worst case scenarios that's why it's taken so long.
The net is wide--- Govts / banks / private sector.
There are no illusions here everyone knows exactly what default means.

The push will be towards growth but it has to be sustainable and with minimal inflation.
I expect steady as she goes once the exuberance dies down.



VSntchr said:


> so now what!


----------



## alexc2005 (27 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> A nieve view. There are no free lunches. This is a multi pronged solution backed with a large net.The net is there but not used in entirety.
> It is very clear to those looking at the Euro solution that Greece is only the very tip.
> They are factoring in worst case scenarios that's why it's taken so long.
> The net is wide--- Govts / banks / private sector.
> ...




So i gather you are sticking to the short term trading for the time being?

I have the feeling that this is the real dead cat bounce before things **** themselves.

Time to exit my long holds and daytrade on the trends. . But, I may have to accept some losses first.

It's funny how the larger stocks follow the market, even when copper was up 7% OZL just follows what the all ords does. Has to be my biggest dog of a stock. Stupid consolidation..


----------



## tech/a (27 October 2011)

Rates will be cut Monday
I'll be having a look around for opportunity


----------



## alexc2005 (27 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Rates will be cut Monday
> I'll be having a look around for opportunity




Yeah, isn't that going to boost things a bit! 

I have been silly in the past with holding on, but i think i will take some profits after this.

Its hard though, how do you bail on companies that are pretty much no brainers like GGP for example?

Have you looked at GGP tech/a?


----------



## So_Cynical (27 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Its hard though, how do you bail on companies that are pretty much no brainers like GGP for example?
> 
> Have you looked at GGP tech/a?




I don't know what tech thinks of GGP but outa curiosity i had a 5 minute look at it and came away with the conclusion that there is a very substantial difference between what you call a 'no brainer' and what i would call a 'no brainer' for a start any investment that i would call a 'no brainer' would have to actually be operationally profitable.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (27 October 2011)

tminus said:


> http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8366062/glitch-halts-trade-on-asx





It's funny because Sky News is always wrong 




nulla nulla said:


> The Greek bailout sends the wrong message, to Greece and the rest of the Euro members. "If you can't pay your bills, don't worry we will bail you out". For Greece it is "back to the party". For the rest of the members with problems it is "If you did it for Greece, you have to do it for us".
> *All care and no responsibility, party, party, party.*




Not sure if the Greek people would agree.


----------



## skc (27 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> I have the feeling that this is the real dead cat bounce before things **** themselves.




I am pretty bullish actually. The risk of some uncontrolled catastropy is pretty much averted for at least 12-18 months and the current rally should take us to 4500 (next major resistance zone on the chart). The US GDP data tonight should show they are not yet in recession. Technically world markets have blasted through resistances across the board (DAX >6000, SPX >1250, ASX > 4300, HSI > 18500).

Plenty of beaten down stocks on offer... 



So_Cynical said:


> I don't know what tech thinks of GGP but outa curiosity i had a 5 minute look at it and came away with the conclusion that there is a very substantial difference between what you call a 'no brainer' and what i would call a 'no brainer' for a start any investment that i would call a 'no brainer' would have to actually be operationally profitable.




Perhaps no brainer = stock for those with no brains.



tech/a said:


> Rates will be cut Monday
> I'll be having a look around for opportunity




Tuesday actually.


----------



## Muschu (27 October 2011)

skc said:


> I am pretty bullish actually. The risk of some uncontrolled catastropy is pretty much averted for at least 12-18 months and the current rally should take us to 4500 (next major resistance zone on the chart). The US GDP data tonight should show they are not yet in recession. Technically world markets have blasted through resistances across the board (DAX >6000, SPX >1250, ASX > 4300, HSI > 18500).
> 
> Plenty of beaten down stocks on offer...
> 
> ...




Feel a bit that way myself [as in bullish] and done reasonably well recently [for a change] on financials.  It would take a big downturn to damage my profits.  [But please read into this that I have also made errors and endured losses].. 

I'd be interested in your nomination of a few beaten-down stocks if you care to share.  Not asking for recommendations, just an opinion.


----------



## Julia (27 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The Greek bailout sends the wrong message, to Greece and the rest of the Euro members. "If you can't pay your bills, don't worry we will bail you out". For Greece it is "back to the party". For the rest of the members with problems it is "If you did it for Greece, you have to do it for us".
> All care and no responsibility, party, party, party.
> 
> This bubble is going to make the GFC look like a pimple. When it collapses........



I agree.  As far as Greece is concerned, it's moral hazard all over again imo.

Analysis on "7.30" this evening points out several holes in the so called plan.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

So the banks are going to be recapitalised in order to allow them to sustain the losses from what's essentially a Greek default.
Where are the funds coming from to provide this recapitalisation?



Starcraftmazter said:


> Not sure if the Greek people would agree.



Of course they wouldn't, or they'd have behaved responsibly long before now.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (27 October 2011)

Julia said:


> Of course they wouldn't, or they'd have behaved responsibly long before now.




The point is, Greeks are now severely worse off; not just in terms of living standards, but also because austerity has crippled what was left of it's economy - not to mention it has been politician suicide for the ruling party.

I am pretty sure nobody is lining up to be in Greece's position.


----------



## VSntchr (27 October 2011)

Julia said:


> I agree.  As far as Greece is concerned, it's moral hazard all over again imo.
> 
> Analysis on "7.30" this evening points out several holes in the so called plan.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/




Interesting video now that the policy is somewhat announced...


----------



## skc (28 October 2011)

Muschu said:


> Feel a bit that way myself [as in bullish] and done reasonably well recently [for a change] on financials.  It would take a big downturn to damage my profits.  [But please read into this that I have also made errors and endured losses]..
> 
> I'd be interested in your nomination of a few beaten-down stocks if you care to share.  Not asking for recommendations, just an opinion.




I won't name specifics here but I will start putting positions on my thread here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21005&p=665189#post665189 

I think there are good picks from the financials including wealth management and insurance - where div yields of 7%+ are simply not sustainable. Share price "should" rise to lower the yield as FUM outflow stems.

There are also a good selection of mining service companies that probably have double digit EPS growth but trading at single digit PE. Some IT companies also fall in this category. 

There are probably easy pickings amongst REIT and Utilities - while they haven't fallen as much they are going to benefit from the rate cut and the xmas dividend run up. The return won't be as much but 10-15% between now and Xmas is more than achievable.

And as long as data from China remains respectable, there are also good gain potential in some of the smaller profitable miners. Although I usually just trade the chart for those. 

Then of course the sky could fall in tomorrow when the Italians want to get a Greek style haircut as well... so one still need to stick with the usual rules of position sizing and risk management.


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah, isn't that going to boost things a bit!
> 
> I have been silly in the past with holding on, but i think i will take some profits after this.
> 
> ...




While I don't disagree with So Cynical I do look at these " opportunities" 
A little differently to some.
Clearly liquidity is an issue any position size over $ 10,000 could see you stuck with large slippage if you wish to get out.

GGP. Has risin over 100% lately.
Problem is other than the large gap up trading was un spectacular.

I can't see how you'd have flagged it technically.

*BUT*
If you can get on one of these snd move your stop to B/E then a 100% profit is not impossible.
Even a non producing stock can easily trade in the teens.


----------



## kavla1970 (28 October 2011)

Julia said:


> Of course they wouldn't, or they'd have behaved responsibly long before now.




There are a group of Greek lawyers who are suing the Government to find out exactly where all the bailout money was spent because they know only a trickle went to the people.

The Government is fighting this class action. I can give you one guess why.....


----------



## nulla nulla (28 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> A nieve view. There are no free lunches. This is a multi pronged solution backed with a large net.The net is there but not used in entirety.
> It is very clear to those looking at the Euro solution that Greece is only the very tip.
> They are factoring in worst case scenarios that's why it's taken so long.
> The net is wide--- Govts / banks / private sector.
> ...




Very *naive* and cynical also. IMO the let off dooms them to repitition only next time there won't be enough in the euro pot to bail any one out, greece, portugal, ireland, italy, spain & france.


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Very *naive* and cynical also. IMO the let off dooms them to repitition only next time there won't be enough in the euro pot to bail any one out, greece, portugal, ireland, italy, spain & france.




No doubt both opinions are one of Thousands.
If world leaders and economic genius's can't get it right
What hope do we have--- both opinions mean nothing in the big picture.

Look after your/ our backyard I say.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 October 2011)

The Sydney Morning Herald BusinessDay section has this article by Larry Elliot (it might be reprinted from  Guardian News & Media). It is worth a read even if only to keep the sovereign debt issue in perspective.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/europe-should-try-a-roosevelttype-deal-20111027-1mm6x.html

Not withstanding it is "bussiness as usual", trade the swings and keep plowing the returns back in.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> No doubt both opinions are one of Thousands.
> If world leaders and economic genius's can't get it right
> What hope do we have--- both opinions mean nothing in the big picture.
> 
> Look after your/ our backyard I say.




Agreed.


----------



## satanoperca (28 October 2011)

All that comes to mind is the song "six months in a leaky boat".

As for the great minds of leaders and pollies, they are the ones that let it happen in the first place. Hardly something that should be commended.

Italy will be next and why shouldn't they get a debt reprieve, Greece did.

Cheers


----------



## satanoperca (28 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Rates will be cut Monday
> I'll be having a look around for opportunity




That was a 100% sure thing two days ago, then only a 90% sure thing yesterday and today maybe even lower, according to the 30 Day interbank cash rate futures.

Dont see why they have to cut rates just yet. Inflation is within their target bank but not below it.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> That was a 100% sure thing two days ago, then only a 90% sure thing yesterday and today maybe even lower, according to the 30 Day interbank cash rate futures.
> 
> Dont see why they have to cut rates just yet. Inflation is within their target bank but not below it.
> 
> Cheers




Yes agree


----------



## notting (28 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> All that comes to mind is the song "six months in a leaky boat".




Seems to have just hitched a ride on a tsunami.


----------



## willstor (28 October 2011)

Doubt I'll make 700 nzd in half an hour like yesterday but I'm a buyer if the opening looks in any way tasty on the index...

just a little worried about a 1st hour pull back, which obviously could be an opportunity!


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2011)

Thats completely under whelming.
Yesterday factored in today!


----------



## notting (28 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Thats completely under whelming.
> Yesterday factored in today!
> View attachment 44992




If you were an international investor we opened 3.5% higher after a rise of 2.5%(or something yesterday). Not too bad.


----------



## alexc2005 (28 October 2011)

Markets don't seem to be convinced.


----------



## notting (28 October 2011)

I would have been happy to make a million dollar bet this morning that we would not dip into negative territory over lunch or in the arvo.  Must be a buying opportunity!


----------



## young-gun (28 October 2011)

notting said:


> I would have been happy to make a million dollar bet this morning that we would not dip into negative territory over lunch or in the arvo.  Must be a buying opportunity!




You would have been ready to jump watching it dive throughout the day then


----------



## notting (28 October 2011)

young-gun said:


> You would have been ready to jump watching it dive throughout the day then




No I try to hang on when I think it's going against a new born trend.


----------



## satanoperca (29 October 2011)

A nice bearish divergence is forming on the XAO, next few days will confirm.

Have the markets just got a little excited about the Greece bailout, someone must be hurting after taking a large haircut and the ramifications are still to be played out. 

What will happen to the CDS markets, who will fund further bailouts, yes there is many more on the horizon.

What about the US and it's mountain of debt and is China really doing as well as reported.

How long will it be before Italy, Ireland and Spain also put their hands up.

Will the private markets want to provide capital in the future at such low returns given the risks involved.

I personally cannot see things returning to normal until there is a complete cleanout of the financials systems and unfortunately this may lead to a world depression but surely that has to be better in the long term than a slow and gradual death by a thousand cuts.

While is appears that we are returning to a bull market, I will wait a little longer before I am convinced that it is the case. 

Cheers


----------



## nomore4s (29 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> While is appears that we are returning to a bull market, I will wait a little longer before I am convinced that it is the case.




I'm not pretty sure not too many are expecting a return to a bull-market anytime soon.

I personally want to see support come in at around 4200-4300 for a continuation of a run up towards 4700-4800 as the current leg up looks to have run out of steam. Consolidation between 4100-4500 isn't out of the question before a move in either direction.

I personally think that governments are caught between a rock and a hard place with the current global financial position. While some here are calling for a major global depression I'm not sure that is a great idea. While I agree some pain is going to be felt over the next few years a full blown depression is something I most definitely don't want to see.

High unemployment, low food levels and social discontent caused from a major depression could very well result in massive rioting and general lawlessness in most major cities worldwide, hell we see rioting when sports teams win championships so I shudder to think what the consequences will be when millions are poor, cold and hungry and blame the government for their situation (which will probably be justified). The effect a massive depression could have on our society is not something I wish to find out, and I have no doubt it will effect all of use in some way. And imagine what would happen if our financial systems actually collapse.


----------



## skc (29 October 2011)

satanoperca said:


> A nice bearish divergence is forming on the XAO, next few days will confirm.
> 
> Have the markets just got a little excited about the Greece bailout, someone must be hurting after taking a large haircut and the ramifications are still to be played out.
> 
> ...




Certainly hard to argue with everything you've said but all the fundamentals were pretty bad at the bottom in Mar 2008.... unpayable debt simply moved from banks to gov't and at some stage it will become too much.. (which for Europe turns out to be around now). And if someone chooses to remain on the sideline since then they are probably correct fundamentally. However, the more nimble traders (fundamental or technical) can still trade long and make good profits.

The EU situation is temporarily under control with a big bandage + a few pills (not sure they are real or just placebo). It will blow up again I am sure (could be next week, month or year) but I trade long with a firm view of running away as soon as things bubble up again.

Certainly not the time to buy and hold, esp companies that will only start making profits in 2014 or something like that.


----------



## willstor (30 October 2011)

Well on Friday I got in at the 400 mark and saw at 414ish it slipping back and took profit on 11 points - went out and came back - very glad I took the profit!

A subscription report that shall remain nameless was saying there was strong support at 400 and to buy and hold there until lunch! (with a stop loss suggested obv)

Monday could be tricky - bearish yes but we've seen a fairly decent pullback and there will be whispers re an interest rate cut. Aiming to go a little bearish and take a profit early if it's there on the index. 

My prediction - early pull back and then small rally to just above Friday's close.


----------



## Nero64 (31 October 2011)

Does anybody have any thoughts on why the market fell 30 points after the Bell today Mon 31st.

Was it possibly someone putting in a mistake on a sell order then it triggered the index to go down which maybe set off some computers to start selling. 

I noticed that most of the big names that make up the index got hit but some of the mid caps weren't affected.


----------



## willstor (1 November 2011)

I thought it was due to the poor Italian bond sale and Qantas but I stand to be corrected.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 November 2011)

MF Global filed for bankruptcy overnight. Lost bigtime on euro debt bets. This should get lots of bull traders all a-twitter.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ange-blocks-mf-global-traders-from-floor.html

Nice day for shorts..


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 November 2011)

skc said:


> The EU situation is temporarily under control with a big bandage + a few pills (not sure they are real or just placebo). It will blow up again I am sure (could be next week, month or year) but I trade long with a firm view of running away as soon as things bubble up again.




Looks like the bandage is already unraveling and the "potent pill$" looking more likely to be useless placebos? 

Oopsies! 



> *Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will put the European Union’s new agreement on financing for Greece to a referendum, saying he had faith in receiving support from Greeks.*



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...eek-loan-plans-must-be-put-to-referendum.html

So now it all hinges on the ANGRY Greek voters sometime down the track. Lubly jubbly.

LOL.


----------



## notting (1 November 2011)

End of month correcting, MF Global 'Oh no is it Lehmans again? Who's gonna be next,' Itallian and Spanish bonds dip  woopsi, VIX up 15%.
Ausi$ flat, Gold Flat, Oil flat!!
Buy the dips.?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (1 November 2011)

notting said:


> MF Global 'Oh no is it Lehmans again?




Except much, much smaller.


----------



## VSntchr (1 November 2011)

Are those who were short term bullish last week still feeling the same way??

Looks like a 3rd day of falls coming tomorrow...


----------



## banco (1 November 2011)

LOL at the Greek PM saying: "screw it let them vote on it".    Bet Merkel and Sarkozy were happy to hear that news.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 November 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Are those who were short term bullish last week still feeling the same way??



Yep +1


----------



## tinhat (1 November 2011)

So the Greek prime minister deciding to go to a referendum, to me appears to completely unravel the most recent European band-aiding exercise. As far as I can see the most recent European fix is now a mess. How can the IMF or the EFSF hand over any money to Greece until this referendum is held? The referendum is going to bring people back onto the streets again and there will be widespread unrest again. This will also send Italy to the brink. It's bond yields are going to go through the roof over the next few weeks.

I wonder what the Greek PM is trying to achieve? Does he want Greece to secede from the Eurozone?

My technical analysis of the market is that we would see a bit of a pull back over a week or two then have a nice rally into January. Now, all bets are off. This could be the start of something bad. We might be seeing another rate cut in December.


----------



## Ves (2 November 2011)

Interesting to see what the EU does about this "referendum."  Can they block it? Can they make the threat to Greece that there are two alternatives: "referendum and no debt deal" or "no referendum and debt deal"? They cannot afford for this debt deal to not go through. Greece almost has the power to force their hand since they know this could potentially cause the house of cards to fall without the bailout. I would say that this is Greece's political play to demand more funds -  "give us a bigger bailout and we will cancel the referendum."


----------



## nulla nulla (2 November 2011)

Greece has probably come to the realisation that if the Euro members are prepared to take a 50% haircut, then they can take a 100% haircut. Greece to default, bring back their Drachma, peg the drachma to the euro and tough it out.


----------



## notting (2 November 2011)

Yeah, shall we make a run on our banks before we vote it down or after? As if!


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> *Greece has probably come to the realisation that if the Euro members are prepared to take a 50% haircut, then they can take a 100% haircut*. Greece to default, bring back their Drachma, peg the drachma to the euro and tough it out.




You might have somefink there in that reasoning, nulla nulla. France & Germany gambled that Greece would be bluffed into total acceptance with their "50% debt haircut bet". Now the weak kneed FrancoGerman coalition have played their Joker and shown their hand for what it is worth, who could really blame the the Greeks for pulling a double bluff? LOL. Something now along the lines of .... 

"I'll see your 50% haircut and bluff you with a Referendum threat to raise it to 75% haircut" - then, after Germany & France relent again,

"I'll see your 75% haircut and bluff you with ANOTHER Referendum threat to raise it to 100% haircut or NO DEAL"  

Hmmm. Things are getting interesting at last.....

Speaking of "tanks", I see France, Greece & Cyprus were down 7-8% last night.... and we worry about the ASX down 1-2%? what a larf....


----------



## kavla1970 (2 November 2011)

Personally I think the ASX is 'tanking' because Kim Kardashian filed for divorce. How will the world recover from this.


----------



## notting (2 November 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> Personally I think the ASX is 'tanking' because Kim Kardashian filed for divorce. How will the world recover from this.




No way.  The whole world went into chaos because the Australian reserve bank lowered interest rates by .25 points. It's obvious. We have the worlds greatest treasurer.

On a less significant note.  
It's great that the world can now focus on a Greek poll which will be rather comical.  
At least we can forget about the even less significant Italian Bond issue, until the joke is over.
Confucius say- "It's better to be voted for or against than lynched!"


----------



## kavla1970 (2 November 2011)

notting said:


> It's great that the world can now focus on a Greek poll which will be rather comical.
> At least we can forget about the even less significant Italian Bond issue, until the joke is over.
> Confucius say- "It's better to be voted for or against than lynched!"





I smell a set up for The Greek people. The Government has has changed the head of the army and other divisions. Look like a Military Coup is coming.......

I also saw this posting and found it interesting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJCHHiQ22GM&feature=related


----------



## kavla1970 (2 November 2011)

notting said:


> No way.  The whole world went into chaos because the Australian reserve bank lowered interest rates by .25 points. It's obvious. We have the worlds greatest treasurer.




How can you doubt we have the worlds best Treasurer...


----------



## notting (2 November 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> How can you doubt we have the worlds best Treasurer...




It could be worse Joe Hockey as finance minister!


----------



## willstor (2 November 2011)

Things are never as good, or as bad, as they seem


----------



## investorpaul (2 November 2011)

Absolutely nothing to worry about IMO

The Greek Parliament needs to pass a vote to allow a Referendum. Last night the socialist part withdrew from Papandreous's coalition reducing his majority to 152 out of 300 seats.

If another one or two candidates leave the party or cross the floor during the vote then the referendum will not happen.

The Papandreous government will be lucky to last a week.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (2 November 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Absolutely nothing to worry about IMO
> 
> The Greek Parliament needs to pass a vote to allow a Referendum. Last night the socialist part withdrew from Papandreous's coalition reducing his majority to 152 out of 300 seats.
> 
> ...




I think the referendum is a bad move, To me it's like asking the kids to vote if they should go to school or not.


----------



## sinner (2 November 2011)

Just a quick word of warning to traders today from my own perspective in FX land...

Seeing very ugly and strange things in forex markets during Tokyo hours today. I think liquidity is much lower than it appears, but demand for size is actually very very high so  every time a trade is committed the prices move crazy.

Personally after my watching my first trade of the day fill and watching my exit get filled, I took my 10 ticks of profit and called it a day.

This is not a regular market and the potential to get creamed is high if you are using leverage.


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I think the referendum is a bad move, To me it's like asking the kids to vote if they should go to school or not.




Not according to the Daily Pap...



> “The referendum will be a *clear mandate* and strong message within and outside Greece *on our European course and our participation in the euro,*” Papandreou told his ministers in Athens early today, according to an e-mailed transcript. *It will “ensure this course in the most decisive way.”*



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/referendum-will-confirm-greece-in-euro-papandreou.html

I want some of what he is obviously on. Some sort of mind-bending substance?

LOL


----------



## notting (2 November 2011)

The Greeks just voted to do the referendum and the markets swung up?!


----------



## sammy84 (2 November 2011)

notting said:


> The Greeks just voted to do the referendum and the markets swung up?!




Did they vote?

Confidence motion is on Friday.


----------



## kavla1970 (2 November 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Absolutely nothing to worry about IMO
> 
> 
> 
> The Papandreous government will be lucky to last a week.




The Politicians are in hiding. Everytime one of them ventures out, someone pelts them.


----------



## young-gun (2 November 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> Personally I think the ASX is 'tanking' because Kim Kardashian filed for divorce. How will the world recover from this.




this needs to be further explored...especially if bernanke is a fan, hes got enough on his plate


----------



## kavla1970 (2 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> this needs to be further explored...especially if bernanke is a fan, hes got enough on his plate




It's OK now. Kim has landed in Australia and the market has stabilised...


----------



## Tysonboss1 (2 November 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Are those who were short term bullish last week still feeling the same way??
> 
> Looks like a 3rd day of falls coming tomorrow...




I am very Bullish, I have no idea where the market is going to go shorterm though. 

I don't believe in any way shape or form the world is heading for the doom and gloom recession people are worried about, I believe all the problems will be worked through and we will make it over the speed bumps and in 2 years from now they prices companies are trading at will look extremely attractive, and people will be wishing they had been more aggressive during this time.


----------



## investorpaul (2 November 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Absolutely nothing to worry about IMO
> 
> The Greek Parliament needs to pass a vote to allow a Referendum. Last night the socialist part withdrew from Papandreous's coalition reducing his majority to 152 out of 300 seats.
> 
> ...






Tysonboss1 said:


> I think the referendum is a bad move, To me it's like asking the kids to vote if they should go to school or not.




Yes I agree the Referendum is a bad move. The Greeks on the street will vote it down (as in vote no to the bail out) and why Papandreous thinks they will side with the government I have no idea.

Luckily, It looks like his coalition is falling to peices and it wont get up.

I wrote a post on my blog called how to commit political suicide about it earlier today.


----------



## notting (2 November 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Yes I agree the Referendum is a bad move. The Greeks on the street will vote it down .




The Greeks on the street are the (minority) problem being averted here.  
*To spell it out:*
The majority of the country knows they have to accept a halving of their debts!  Gee that's taugh.  Like the bank coming to you and saying, "Oh poor person, having a taugh time paying your morgage interest.  OK we'll halve your morgage for you."

It's not a problem it's a joke. 
A political hand wash. 
Put it back on the people and they can't blame us.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (2 November 2011)

notting said:


> The Greeks on the street are the (minority) problem being averted here.
> *To spell it out:*
> The majority of the country knows they have to accept a halving of their debts!  Gee that's taugh.  Like the bank coming to you and saying, "Oh poor person, having a taugh time paying your morgage interest.  OK we'll halve your morgage for you."
> 
> ...




I agree, The rational person would accept the deal as it is good for their country, But when you have people voting who are worried themselves or their close family will lose if the deal goes through.

people will be worried about the following,

1, their pension entitlements reduced by the austerity
2, Lose their government jobs
3, have reduced wages
4, have retirement age increased
5, lose government benefits
7, have the government crack down on taxes

etc etc

Plus you always have the rebels who will vote no no matter what.

I think alot of people in their simple minds would rather see a complete default.


----------



## poverty (2 November 2011)

DOW futures absolutely flying, lets hope we can make it to morning without any (extra) bad news and it could be a good day.


----------



## young-gun (2 November 2011)

poverty said:


> DOW futures absolutely flying, lets hope we can make it to morning without any (extra) bad news and it could be a good day.




where are u getting your dow futures info from?


----------



## Ves (2 November 2011)

I use the CNN pre-market site for US futures.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/?iid=C_All_MKTS


----------



## alexc2005 (2 November 2011)

I've found this one to be good

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 November 2011)

poverty said:


> DOW futures absolutely flying, lets hope we can make it to morning without any (extra) bad news and it could be a good day.




"Yes, that refo...er...whatsit thingy sounds..err.... good for something!

Let's gamble the lot on the outcome!!"

LOL 

Go you US futurists..


----------



## poverty (2 November 2011)

http://www.igmarkets.com.au

Notice these futures actually move.  It's happening Reg!  It's really happening!


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 November 2011)

Mmmm! Seems the prospect of all that G20 "goodne$$" has the rampant bull$ $norting again.

Bouncy, bouncy....


----------



## Logique (3 November 2011)

Well I thought the price of bananas was causing everything. 

But no, it seems that between them, the combined culprits are: Missterr Abbott, the world's Malthusianally expanding population, and the nation of Greece. 

Yes I'm an ABC radio listener, how could you tell? 

As for Greece, if they can get a 50% discount on their debt, they can probably get 100%. They're the tail wagging the EU dog atm.  Not so silly after all, the drachma's looking pretty good.


----------



## kavla1970 (3 November 2011)

Logique said:


> Not so silly after all, the drachma's looking pretty good.




Well I think the US dollar is going to collapse one day and the Euro might follow. 

It looks like the Drachma and Deutchmark are coming back!!!


http://maxkeiser.com/2011/10/04/192-keiser-report-deutschmark-drachma-revival/


----------



## Struzball (3 November 2011)

kavla1970 said:


> Well I think the US dollar is going to collapse one day and the Euro might follow.




The US dollar may collapse.. but against what?
Will the US dollar collapsing mean the AUD goes to $2 USD?

More likely I believe would be the value of the US companies halve, and our currency falls back to sub $0.70USD.


----------



## kavla1970 (3 November 2011)

Struzball said:


> The US dollar may collapse.. but against what?
> Will the US dollar collapsing mean the AUD goes to $2 USD?
> 
> More likely I believe would be the value of the US companies halve, and our currency falls back to sub $0.70USD.




I used the word Collapse. Collapse is probably not the right word....reinvented in another form. I bet that's where it's going.


----------



## IFocus (3 November 2011)

Logique said:


> As for Greece, if they can get a 50% discount on their debt, they can probably get 100%. They're the tail wagging the EU dog atm.  Not so silly after all, the drachma's looking pretty good.




Italy is the big black dog..........


----------



## notting (3 November 2011)

US futures were badly down all day but our market was flat.
US futures in this later hour are now slightly positive.
The market knows!
It stopped me from selling but I didn't buy much, unfortunatly.


----------



## Boggo (3 November 2011)

The writing was on the wall back here, nothing has changed yet...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23227&p=664529&viewfull=1#post664529


----------



## banco (3 November 2011)

Italy isn't looking too healthy.  It's bond yields are blowing out and the news isn't even that bad yet.


----------



## noirua (4 November 2011)

banco said:


> Italy isn't looking too healthy.  It's bond yields are blowing out and the news isn't even that bad yet.




Ah yes, and Aussie Stock Forums is behind in the very important stock voting competition. 

Runs for a few months and you can vote at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

No need to panic yet, but even being a bit behind is worrying, sleepless nights.

:aus: Aussie Stock Forums :aus: needs you guys - thanks


----------



## McCoy Pauley (4 November 2011)

noirua said:


> Ah yes, and Aussie Stock Forums is behind in the very important stock voting competition.
> 
> Runs for a few months and you can vote at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html
> 
> ...




Voted again for ASF, which is now almost 14% more popular than HC.  KUTGW!


----------



## Chasero (4 November 2011)

banco said:


> Italy isn't looking too healthy.  It's bond yields are blowing out and the news isn't even that bad yet.




No worries. The 1trill fund will take care of that.

Markets are celebrating! Yeehaw.

Time to enjoy the ride until the next shocker comes


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> No worries. The 1trill fund will take care of that.
> 
> Markets are celebrating! Yeehaw.
> 
> Time to enjoy the ride until the next shocker comes




Didn't you sell all your stocks, how you going to enjoy the ride with no stocks.

Do you regret letting yourself get freaked by the market girations.


----------



## alexc2005 (4 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Didn't you sell all your stocks, how you going to enjoy the ride with no stocks.
> 
> Do you regret letting yourself get freaked by the market girations.




Are you implying that everything is now fixed?


----------



## VSntchr (4 November 2011)

A good friend of mine just returned from Europe. He said that the fear in Italy is widespread. TV is streaming crisis news 24/7. 
Just a bit of information I thought was interesting.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 November 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Are you implying that everything is now fixed?




No, But I don't agree *Everything* was broken to begin with.

As I have said many times, I have no idea what the share market will do inregards to various news items as they come out, But I am extremely bullish on the world economy longterm, and I am extremly bullish on the australian economy, and extremely bullish on the companies I hold.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Markets are celebrating! *Yeehaw*.




That highlighted part is the most worring part of your statement.

It seems you haven't learned much, this is just another high on the emotional rollercoaster you ride on.

You need to have equanimity when dealing with your investments, other wise you will live in a constant state of either fear or euforia and will be tempted by speculation and put money in at the wrong times and pull it out at the wrong times.

Equanimity is a state of mental or emotional stability or composure arising from a deep awareness and acceptance of the present moment. Equanimity is the concept of balance and centeredness which endures through all possible changes in circumstances, Equanimity does not mean sitting around inactive while things are happening, or escaping from the world, or suppressing one's feelings. Equanimity is operating from the state of supreme watchfulness without an iota of attachment or aversion. ….. A mind of equanimity is an original pure mind free from all suppression, fear, dullness and ignorance.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 November 2011)

VSntchr said:


> A good friend of mine just returned from Europe. He said that the fear in Italy is widespread. TV is streaming crisis news 24/7.
> Just a bit of information I thought was interesting.




Never forget the silliness of crowds, there was a herd of cattle that stampeded off a cliff because one was spooked by a snake, There were also several people killed when a crowd rushed for the exits after some pirotechnics set of a smoke alarm.

Similar things happen in the markets.


----------



## young-gun (4 November 2011)

this market is tiring me...might head to the casino. prob better chance of me making money their atm


----------



## young-gun (4 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> No, But I don't agree *Everything* was broken to begin with.
> 
> As I have said many times, I have no idea what the share market will do inregards to various news items as they come out, But I am extremely bullish on the world economy longterm, and I am extremly bullish on the australian economy, and extremely bullish on the companies I hold.




thats alot of bulls tyson - please define long term


----------



## explod (4 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> this market is tiring me...might head to the casino. prob better chance of me making money their atm




Not too sure about the casino young-gun, but you are on the money by staying away from this market.

It is rising and falling on the news media and who can who paint each other the blackest.  And there are good fundamental reasons for that.  The money printing and competition to keep each individual currency the lowest is all going to end very bad and soon.

And *anyone* who is not up with the reasons for that is in dreamland.


----------



## young-gun (4 November 2011)

explod said:


> Not too sure about the casino young-gun, but you are on the money by staying away from this market.
> 
> It is rising and falling on the news media and who can who paint each other the blackest.  And there are good fundamental reasons for that.  The money printing and competition to keep each individual currency the lowest is all going to end very bad and soon.
> 
> And *anyone* who is not up with the reasons for that is in dreamland.




i was always of the opinion collapse was inevitable...and perhaps it still is.. but they're doing a dam good job in trying to hold it off. they seem to be winding up the boot and taking their can kicking abilities to new heights with every passing day..will it never end?


----------



## Chasero (4 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Didn't you sell all your stocks, how you going to enjoy the ride with no stocks.
> 
> Do you regret letting yourself get freaked by the market girations.




I jumped off the bandwagon (with capital losses) and have invested some back in.

Please note people were telling me to sell CBA at $42 on this thread but I held and sold it at $46.. which was only a few % less than what I bought it for. Note, this was at a time of HUGE market panic! I am now very green for the year! (And now realise I shouldve held CBA and BHP, doh! Would've been an even better month for me)

So even as I seem to panic or shout out on these threads, as a trader I have learned to become less emotionally invested.

I don't regret it one bit as I learned a lot about myself and trading so to never repeat that again.

That was the first time I've seen my investments be more than 5k in the red so I think I have handled it pretty well!!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (4 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> thats alot of bulls tyson - please define long term




every one has a different idea of the definition of short term, medium term and long term.

Personally I would call,

short term less than 1 year
Medium term 1 - 3 years
long term 3 - 40 years

In relation to my comment above, I believe in 12 months the share market will be higher than it is now close to if not above 5000 points, But as I said shorterm I could be wrong.

But within 5 years I can't see it being below the peak before the GFC, it will be higher


----------



## Uncle Festivus (5 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> No, But I don't agree *Everything* was broken to begin with.
> 
> As I have said many times, I have no idea what the share market will do inregards to various news items as they come out, But I am extremely bullish on the world economy longterm, and I am extremly bullish on the australian economy, and extremely bullish on the companies I hold.




Extremely bullish on what data? A lot of hope there but not much (none?) hard factual data??



Tysonboss1 said:


> But within 5 years I can't see it being below the peak before the GFC, it will be higher




Sorry to disappoint but the GFC is still going on. What we have seen is the result of debt funded stimulis. Only problem is it hasn't worked - the global economy is flatlining at best.

Then there's a small issue with Europe, Japan & the US insurmountable debt problems - simple primary school maths can work those figures out eg money coming in must equal money going out, otherwise = deficit.

An updated 'Jaws Of Death'  for those that know....the US deficit


----------



## young-gun (5 November 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Extremely bullish on what data? A lot of hope there but not much (none?) hard factual data??
> 
> 
> 
> ...





ahh but it has worked uncle festivus, it has held the states just above the point of total collapse for some time now causing their dollar to become increasingly less valuable as time passes. for their sake i hope they dont push QE3..... who am i kidding.. there will be qe3


----------



## explod (5 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> every one has a different idea of the definition of short term, medium term and long term.
> 
> Personally I would call,
> 
> ...




Time and time again on these threads Tysonboss1 you say that *you believe *the share market will be higher in 12 months, 

but *you never qualify it *with why.


----------



## Julia (5 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> ahh but it has worked uncle festivus, it has held the states just above the point of total collapse for some time now causing their dollar to become increasingly less valuable as time passes. for their sake i hope they dont push QE3..... who am i kidding.. there will be qe3



That doesn't constitute "working".  It has simply been delaying the inevitable, "kicking the can up the road' to use the current cliche.

Just as Swan & Co claim they saved Australia from the GFC because with their hugely wasteful stimulus spending there were not two successive quarters of 'negative growth' (love that phrase!).

If anything, Australia is presently experiencing its own delayed version of the GFC which as Uncle F. has observed, has never actually resolved.

At some stage there's going to have to be a reckoning.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (5 November 2011)

explod said:


> Time and time again on these threads Tysonboss1 you say that *you believe *the share market will be higher in 12 months,
> 
> but *you never qualify it *with why.




It will be higher because in that time people will relies that the world is not going to collapse, alot, and mean alot of the best companies Australia has are trading at prices below fair value, and it is crazy to think that they will not return to fair value without the wheels falling off the Australia economy,

As far as I can see the American recovery is slow, but it is happening, china and some of the less developed Asian countries are in a self sustaining growth cycle and Europeans will still continue to consume and work through their problems, the big economies there are stable.

I see a world economy that's going to continue to consume australian resources, and an Australian economy that's going to continue generating profits, if you don't believe that stick to your shiny stuff.


----------



## Logique (6 November 2011)

Tyson, taking them on again I see. Something faintly positive, suddenly you're a contrarian.  Still, it's refreshing with so much gloom about.

A partial reference below, I do hope the author won't mind, please let ASF know if you do.
http://newsletter.sharecafe.com.au/email/link.php?M=3524696&N=228&L=1533&F=H
SHARE CAFE COMMENTARY
'The Further You Look, The Better It Gets' - 27/10/2011 -Author John Abernethy is the Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Executive Director of Clime Investment Management (Clime Group) and Chairman of Clime Capital Limited. 

"...In recent weeks our clients would have noticed that our buying activities on their behalf have stepped up a notch. Their individual stock weightings and their time with us will to an extent determine the level of activity.

Right now it is our investment team’s belief that the Australian share market is approximately 15% undervalued as a whole. Individual stocks are being presented at greater or lower discounts and we are building portfolios along the lines that we have consistently outlined in our recent briefings..."


----------



## young-gun (6 November 2011)

Julia said:


> That doesn't constitute "working".  It has simply been delaying the inevitable, "kicking the can up the road' to use the current cliche.
> 
> Just as Swan & Co claim they saved Australia from the GFC because with their hugely wasteful stimulus spending there were not two successive quarters of 'negative growth' (love that phrase!).
> 
> ...




sorry allow me to clarify - it did something unfortunately that something didnt quite hit the heights of which they originally intended or thought that it may.

at the end of the day you cannot make people spend if they no longer wish to spend


----------



## young-gun (6 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> It will be higher because in that time people will relies that the world is not going to collapse, alot, and mean alot of the best companies Australia has are trading at prices below fair value, and it is crazy to think that they will not return to fair value without the wheels falling off the Australia economy,




unfortunately value is redundant. the value of a company is and always will be dictated by the market. once the value of a company is realised to be higher than what the market thought hedge funds are in before you or i get a chance to capitalise on some quick gains. unless of course you're an investor and you get lucky on a take over or something while holding(im assuming this is your current strategy - buy and hold). a good example of this is IPL. congrats if anyone rode that stock. its peak price was FAR greater than any perceived 'value' of the stock. but the market liked it, so it continued to soar.

IMO the market is what it is. it isn't currently oversold or underpriced, as thousands if not millions of people have decided this IS where it should be. i think buying in now thinking that things are at bargain prices is a mistake. wanna see some dirt cheap prices? wait until the end of next year


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> IMO the market is what it is. it isn't currently oversold or underpriced, as thousands if not millions of people have decided this IS where it should be. i think buying in now thinking that things are at bargain prices is a mistake. wanna see some dirt cheap prices? wait until the end of next year




On a relative basis the ASX _is_ oversold, relative to the US for eg so the 15% figure could be conservative. Then again, we might have a better market price discovery mechanism than the US, who's markets are blatantly manipulated? We may be pricing in the fact that China is at stall speed, going by the latest data. 



> Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- A Chinese manufacturing index dropped to the  lowest level since February 2009, bolstering the case for fiscal or  monetary loosening to support the expansion of the world’s  second-biggest economy.
> The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in  October from 51.2 in September, the China Federation of Logistics and  Purchasing said in a statement today. That was lower than any of 16  economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey that had a median  forecast of 51.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
> An index of export orders contracted for the  second time in three months as Europe’s failure to resolve its debt  crisis dims the outlook for shipments to China’s biggest market.



If only we had a central bank who understood the importance of propping up equity markets....?




We are all connected now..........


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 November 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> We are all connected now..........




No wuckers.

We have a Brave New World controlled impeccably by the all-powerful G20 (a de-facto World Government). 

It's what we always wanted.

Isn't it?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (6 November 2011)

I do not agree with you at all young gun.

Value can never be redundant, you are confusing marketprice, with value.

If the market always has value right, at what point in the last five years was Bhp correct, value does not fluctuate with market price.

Was Bhp value correct at $50, or 6 months later at $26 or later at $36 or then $48 or recently $33 or $38. 

Obviously, it's price has flucuated massively, but it's value does not ,


----------



## explod (6 November 2011)

> Tysonboss1;668516]It will be higher because in that time people will relies that the world is not going to collapse, alot, and mean alot of the best companies Australia has are trading at prices below fair value, and it is crazy to think that they will not return to fair value without the wheels falling off the Australia economy,




But what if people are realising that the world is going to collapse.  You have failed to say why "people will realise that that the world is not going to collapse"



> As far as I can see the American recovery is slow, but it is happening, china and some of the less developed Asian countries are in a self sustaining growth cycle and Europeans will still continue to consume and work through their problems, the big economies there are stable.




America is not in recovery at all.  The general media would have you believe that.  Real unemployment is 22% if you count them all.  The US only count those that have been looking for work in the last 12 months, after that the number is dropped off.  There are countless other examples.  Did you check "the Privateer" as suggested.

Fifty million are relying on food stamps.

And the following quote from Michael Panzer at http://www.financialarmageddon.com/



> "Americans Down on Economy" (Poll Position)
> 
> By a 49%-35% margin, Americans say they expect the U.S. economy to worsen between now and the November 2012 presidential election.
> 
> ...






> I see a world economy that's going to continue to consume australian resources, and an Australian economy that's going to continue generating profits, if you don't believe that stick to your shiny stuff.




In the long term of course but with China continuing to buy in, not only here, but in a big way in Africa, will it be on our terms?

Note also that BHP themselves are concerned about the steel price, as demand is falling off and new large pits are opening up in Africa.  They also have soveriege risks problems emerging from South America.   So the outlook, and that is without taking Europe's problems into account, are not a bed of roses by any means.  Oh and nearly forgot, our carbon tax.

However I would be pleased to have some real facts put up on your bullish stance as we could do with some sunshine and lolliepops at the moment.

In the meantime, I'll just hang onto my shiny stuff.


----------



## young-gun (6 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I do not agree with you at all young gun.
> 
> Value can never be redundant, you are confusing marketprice, with value.
> 
> ...




you have just supported what i was saying. value is redundant. if price fluctuates regardless of value then how can value possibly matter, or be of any use?

obviously the market has no regard for it, or you would see the price sit 'somewhere around' apparent 'value'.

i never said the market has it right by any means. but the market certainly dictates price. the only time value really comes into play is when a stock is priced for the likes of a takeover. (even then who is to say that the buyers offer is the correct 'value') in which case as i said hedge funds get in way before we would have a chance, and the share price rockets to the proposed takeover amount in minutes. which seems ludacris to me but thats how it goes.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 November 2011)

Because over time prices do follow value, and the longterm fluctuations will be in a trading range around the fair value. 

So although xyz company maybe have a fair value of say $40 when the market is feeling pessimistic it can drop to $30 and when the market is overly optimistic it can rise to $50.00

That does not mean value is redundant, it makes knowing the fair value more important,


----------



## VSntchr (7 November 2011)

Wheres the "The Oil Price is Tanking Thread"....oil down 9.5% according to YahooFinance.


----------



## skyQuake (7 November 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Wheres the "The Oil Price is Tanking Thread"....oil down 9.5% according to YahooFinance.




Their commodities data are VERY dodgy.

+0.19 so far 94.45


----------



## nomore4s (7 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Because over time prices do follow value, and the longterm fluctuations will be in a trading range around the fair value.
> 
> So although xyz company maybe have a fair value of say $40 when the market is feeling pessimistic it can drop to $30 and when the market is overly optimistic it can rise to $50.00
> 
> That does not mean value is redundant, it makes knowing the fair value more important,




What a load of cr@p, fair value is nothing more then a guess. You're "fair value" on a certain stock might be 25% different to another analyst and the market will probably ignore both valuations.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 November 2011)

nomore4s said:


> You're "fair value" on a certain stock might be 25% different to another analyst and the market will probably ignore both valuations.




Valuations are always estimates, especially when you are valuing them based on your own outlooks and objectives, But it is true that the market does follow value over time, Hence why the dot coms bombed, and Australias greatest businesses have shown growth over time.

Offcourse an analyst of BHP who thinks that Iron will be $X over the next five years will value BHP at less than one who thinks Iron will be $XX, But thats why a good value investor always uses conservative inputs in his valuation and insists on a margin of safty.

To think that a companies stock price will bounce around for ever paying no head to what you get for your dollar it simply wrong.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (7 November 2011)

It seems as though a few people on this thread need to read about efficient market theory before they discount the concept of "fair value" or "intrinsic value" of a company.


----------



## skyQuake (7 November 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> It seems as though a few people on this thread need to read about efficient market theory before they discount the concept of "fair value" or "intrinsic value" of a company.




And how is the EMH relevant?


----------



## young-gun (7 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Because over time prices do follow value, and the longterm fluctuations will be in a trading range around the fair value.
> 
> So although xyz company maybe have a fair value of say $40 when the market is feeling pessimistic it can drop to $30 and when the market is overly optimistic it can rise to $50.00
> 
> That does not mean value is redundant, it makes knowing the fair value more important,




agree to disagree. but its ok though! if a company was always priced exactly as it should be no one would ever make any money moves would become predictable and trading would be come easy


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 November 2011)

Back to the topic at hand.....

Might be a little bit of a "tank" for the ASX looming tomorrow if futures indicators are rattled by growing concerns for the wounded elephant in the room - Italy. We all know how dangerous wounded ele's are eh?   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...decline-ryanair-ubs-shares-may-be-active.html

IMF might just have to fire their Bazooka!

LOL


----------



## noirua (8 November 2011)

:topic 

Aussie Stock Forums ASF, are slipping well behind in the polls at 'The Bull'.

http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

The above link will take you to the voting zone. Always a great test to claw the way back against the odds.

We can't afford to panic, must keep calm. Please help stop ASF from tanking.

We are not put out by this, hell we're not, bring out the troops :bigun2::badass::rippergun


----------



## Logique (8 November 2011)

Dow finished +85 points overnight, so the ASX probably won't tank today.
Marcus Padley is an interesting read this morning on investor temperament, I wonder where we'd all place ourselves on the scale. I guess we all have our moments!
http://www.smh.com.au/money/road-to-ruin-shouting-swearing-and-slamming-phones-20111104-1mzlw.html
*Road to ruin: shouting, swearing and slamming phones *
by Marcus Padley, SMH, November 5, 2011

"..In brief, the breakdown is that people come in three general temperaments, each with two extremes (''unpleasant'' or ''pleasant'', ''arousable'' or ''unarousable'', ''submissive'' or ''dominant'') and the eight various combinations of those three pigeonhole investors are exuberant, dependent, relaxed, docile, hostile, anxious, disdainful or bored.
Turns out the relaxed (pleasant, unarousable and dominant) and the docile (pleasant, unarousable and submissive) are the most suited to investment success and the rest, anyone unpleasant or arousable, are at a disadvantage..."
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/road-to...ming-phones-20111104-1mzlw.html#ixzz1d3bFqn1W


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 November 2011)

Logique said:


> Dow finished +85 points overnight, so the ASX probably won't tank today.




Indeed!



> European finance ministers pledged to roll out a bulked-up rescue fund next month, leaving Greece and Italy on the front lines until then in the fight against the debt crisis.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/eu-to-roll-out-bigger-rescue-fund.html

More printed moolah for all Too Big To Fail entities! 

So, comforted by the knowledge that the powerful EU ministers have all the answers, let's party like there's no tomorrow... *wheeeee.....*


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 November 2011)

skyQuake said:


> And how is the EMH relevant?




Because there's a few people posting on this thread suggesting that nothing more than a company's share price need be known, thus implying that everything relevant to the company is already built in to the share price.

I beg to differ and base my investment strategy on that difference of opinion.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 November 2011)

noirua said:


> :topic
> 
> Aussie Stock Forums ASF, are slipping well behind in the polls at 'The Bull'.
> 
> ...




HC must have their automated bots repeatedly voting.  That's a fair turnaround from last week.


----------



## Chasero (8 November 2011)

HC has a ludicrous amount of adds and 'waiting time'.

Such an annoying way to view threads, I don't know why anyone would vote for them.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> ! if a company was always priced exactly as it should be no one would ever make any money moves would become predictable and trading would be come easy




They won't always be priced exactly as they should be, At times they will be priced well below and other times they will be priced well above.

Knowing an estimate of their fair value helps you buy at prices with a high degree of certainty that their prices will rise and also avoid stocks where there is a high degree of certainty there prices will fall.


----------



## banco (9 November 2011)

With Italy's bonds tanking will be a rough day tomorrow.


----------



## GRYPHON80 (9 November 2011)

banco said:


> With Italy's bonds tanking will be a rough day tomorrow.




Going to be Ugly


----------



## notting (9 November 2011)

Two things I found somewhat mystifying about todays rally on the ASX.
First. How could the exiting of a prime minister with no clear succession plan in place be positive for markets that hate uncertainty more than bad news!
Second. What difference does a priminister make to Italian bonds that crossed the threshold at about a yeild of 6ish?
Rembering Greece is chicken feed compaired to Itally which has the potential to do more damage than Lehmans.
Yippie lets rally.
Looks like the trillion dollar bailout fund is going to have to find funds rather quickly instead of being a plan to be funded by - 'we're working on it'


----------



## Starcraftmazter (10 November 2011)

You underestimate how much of a joke Berlusconi is. He fell asleep twice at the G20 summit last week. A country cannot possibly have even a chance of riding through the financial termoil Italy is facing with someone like that at the helm. Pretty much anyone is better.

Bond yields however have continued to rise, now over 7% Italy is speeding towards disaster unless something happens very very quickly.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> You underestimate how much of a joke Berlusconi is. He fell asleep twice at the G20 summit last week. A country cannot possibly have even a chance of riding through the financial termoil Italy is facing with someone like that at the helm. Pretty much anyone is better.
> 
> *Bond yields however have continued to rise, now over 7% Italy is speeding towards disaster unless something happens very very quickly.*




Reached 7.25% overnight.



> Investors today propelled Italy’s 10-year bond yield to close at a euro-era high of 7.25 percent after the promised exit of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi failed to convince them that his country can slash Europe’s second-largest debt burden.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...s-defenses-as-region-s-contagion-worsens.html

Train wreck a-comin' down the line...... Whoooooot!

PS - Is today the "official" start of GFC2?


----------



## notting (10 November 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> PS - Is today the "official" start of GFC2?




No GFC. 
Accept the C now stands for catastrophe
Fall of Rome 2.
When the leaders start endulging in orgies, well, you know what follows.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 November 2011)

notting said:


> No GFC.
> Accept the C now stands for catastrophe
> Fall of Rome 2.
> *When the leaders start endulging in orgies, well, you know what follows.*




A lot of flamin' fiddling?


----------



## tech/a (10 November 2011)

100 ticks down on open SPI.
ouch!


----------



## Chasero (10 November 2011)

Now the media has one more country to blame. (like it wasn't there already)

Prepare to hear a lot more about Italy! 

I wonder if it's is the start of a sharp reversal and down trend, or if the up trend remains in tact (short term)

I wouldn't be surprised if the DOW is flat tomorrow!


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Now the media has one more country to blame. (like it wasn't there already)



These issues didn't happen last night yet the whole reaction thing both up and down simply lets the pros. suck money from the market.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (10 November 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> These issues didn't happen last night yet the whole reaction thing both up and down simply lets the pros. suck money from the market.




Exactly. The Italy issue has been around for a while but of course it makes for a wonderful trigger point when bond prices rise above 6%. Start loading up on shorts, then see the inevitable barrage of media in a panic over bonds at 7% yields and bam, $$. 

All I can say is chugga chugga chugga CHOO CHOO!!


----------



## baby_swallow (10 November 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> These issues didn't happen last night yet the whole reaction thing both up and down simply lets the pros. suck money from the market.




Funny you said that because I have a feeling that the foreign "Big Boyz" armed with there HFT bots and freshly printed ultra-low interest USDs are systematically sucking money out of the Aussie markets. They can bid up the market and the unsuspecting Aussie based fund managers, (with billions of our super funds), thought the market is rallying and they go for it. 
It happened again yesterday - the market staged a mini rally on the back of crumbling Italy. The Big Boyz already knew in advance what's going to happen.


----------



## banco (10 November 2011)

The European elites who took their countries into the single currency have a lot to answer for.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 November 2011)

banco said:


> The European elites who took their countries into the single currency have a lot to answer for.



It's hard to "keep up with the Joneses" when the banks won't lend any more money.


----------



## So_Cynical (13 November 2011)

The Aussie Market should be up around 1% tomorrow i would think, with the DOW up 2.2% on Friday and clearly consolidating at around the 12000 level...down trend broken for mine.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (13 November 2011)

Obama Says it all,

This video clearly lays out the current problem with the US Government.


----------



## noirua (14 November 2011)

Looks as if worry and concern has been put back in the box temporarily. 

Jack is very nervous in his box and may jump out again at any moment. Very strong spring and weak lid.

Gold stocks look the way to go and other resources stocks are desperately cheap.





Just in case you missed it. Voting for your favourite forum takes place at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html


----------



## notting (14 November 2011)

US Jobs looking a little bit better.  US growth is slight. Two new prime ministers in Euroland.  Austerity measures past in Italy. Nice little rally on technicals. Looks nice accept:
*Italian bonds above 6%* insolvent.  
I cannot believe this rally.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (14 November 2011)

Here is a dramatic representation of what some of the bears here fear will happen to the world economy, 

After all greece is such a small country, how can it possibly topple anything.

PS. I am still as bullish as ever, just thought this was a funny video.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (14 November 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Greece is old news - it's gone higher up the food chain now to Italy & France. And Germany has realised it has to start looking after it's own.






Tysonboss1 said:


> Here is a dramatic representation of what some of the bears here fear will happen to the world economy,
> 
> After all greece is such a small country, how can it possibly topple anything.
> 
> PS. I am still as bullish as ever, just thought this was a funny video.




So are those 2 big contagionoes China & the USA?

Why are you still extremely bullish?

So someone else is put in charge of sorting the mess that is Italy - market now happy - all is good - again?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (14 November 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> 1, So are those 2 big contagionoes China & the USA?
> 
> 2, Why are you still extremely bullish?
> 
> 3, So someone else is put in charge of sorting the mess that is Italy - market now happy - all is good - again?




1, if thats who you want to think of, sure.

2, Many reason that I have mentioned since the inception of this thread, long story short Australia and the businesses I own and invest in will continue to thrive based on our own internal economy and or export industry. I in no why believe the American economy is going to stop consuming and I believe china will continue maufacturing exports and steadily increasing domestic consumption.

3, Well who knows if it is all good, But I don't think it is all bad. I hope we have a few more shocks, But I am 100% confident the global economy is going to contiune to grow regardless.


----------



## young-gun (14 November 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Obama Says it all,
> 
> This video clearly lays out the current problem with the US Government.





i stated it somewhere else in another thread, but governments account for somewhere between 30-50% of national spending. If governments stop spending, countries fall into recession. this is why austerity measures are a joke, they just want to appear to be doing the right thing, while well aware that they can't stop. At the end of the day growth CANNOT go on forever, end of story. 

tyson i admire your optimism, and can appreciate that this is probably what has lead you to succeed in your own business(amongst many other things), but honestly - bullish have you got a contract with the comm games or something??

all this spending and debt and unfunded liabilities are not just going to go away, we are sitting right on the edge at the moment, it just needs something to happen, im unsure of what thats going to be, but ill get back to you when it does but i can assure you it will be sudden.

i do however believe that australia will most certainly come out of this crisis alot quicker and in a much better financial position than alot of nations.

JMO


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 November 2011)

notting said:


> US Jobs looking a little bit better.  US growth is slight. Two new prime ministers in Euroland.  Austerity measures past in Italy. Nice little rally on technicals. Looks nice accept:
> *Italian bonds above 6%* insolvent.
> I cannot believe this rally.




Perhaps a tiny crack in the Berlin Wall then?



> *German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party voted to allow euro states to quit the currency area, endorsing the prospect of a move not permitted under euro rules. *
> 
> The resolution, which requires the assent of Merkel’s two coalition partners before becoming policy, is part of Merkel’s push for closer political ties and tighter budget rules in the European Union, with euro countries setting the pace. The drive is her answer to the debt crisis that began in Greece in 2009 and last week toppled governments in Athens and Rome.
> 
> “We’re not throwing anybody out,” Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with broadcaster Phoenix from the CDU national congress in Leipzig today. “But if a country can’t carry the burden or doesn’t want to carry the burden, and the Greek people have to carry a heavy load, then we have to respect the country’s decision.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...back-motion-allowing-euro-member-exit-1-.html

Anyone else getting the jitters?


----------



## tinhat (15 November 2011)

It occurred to me this morning that the Eurozone needs to kick Germany out of the Euro - but alas that can't be done.


----------



## notting (17 November 2011)

Very funny and really not that silly.
The others could all then form their own ECB. 
Reduce all their retirement ages to 35 to win the next election.
Print money till the cows come home to fund pensions and all have an awesome popopulous political party on the people.

At least the market is doing what it should in the last hour given we have entered a zone not seen since the great depression. 
Still cannot believe we rallied after Italian bonds hit the catastrophic 7%.
What did it take for the appropriate response? Fitch said US banks would be badly effected by Eurozone issues if they get real bad.  WOW!!! Visionary.
Oil is up over a dollar still.  Greate, that takes care of Asia too.


----------



## sinner (17 November 2011)

Anyone else buying puts today? I grabbed a XJO 4100 put MAR-12 for 160pts. 

Hope to exit at a profit and some increased vol by Christmas!


----------



## Ves (17 November 2011)

sinner said:


> Anyone else buying puts today? I grabbed a XJO 4100 put MAR-12 for 160pts.
> 
> Hope to exit at a profit and some increased vol by Christmas!



Probably Options 101 for most of you guys...

... but does this mean that you make a profit for every point that the XJO closes below 4100 come the option expiry date in Mar 2012? What is your down-side risk? Loss of the option premium only?


----------



## sinner (17 November 2011)

Ves said:


> Probably Options 101 for most of you guys...
> 
> ... but does this mean that you make a profit for every point that the XJO closes below 4100 come the option expiry date in Mar 2012? What is your down-side risk? Loss of the option premium only?




Assuming I hold till expiry, essentially yes. It's a little more complicated than that, since 

1. I can sell back into the options market before expiry.
2. options pricing take into account the value of both price *and* volatility "vega". So my potential profit or loss is not only determined by price above/below 4100 but realised volatility when I exit the position.

I'm buying further out of the curve than I will probably hold, so my position isn't affected as much by time decay "theta".

Maximum loss is option premium as you state.


----------



## Aussiejeff (18 November 2011)

Tank today, anyone?


----------



## nulla nulla (18 November 2011)

I was expecting our market to tank yesterday and was surprised when the xao rallied 10 points. Low volumes could be indicative that the "panic" component is largely already out of the market?


----------



## kavla1970 (18 November 2011)

Looks like it....


----------



## howmanyru (18 November 2011)

The panic has gone, now just apathy remains !


----------



## Struzball (18 November 2011)

The real panic will come when even Tysonboss gives up hope


----------



## young-gun (18 November 2011)

Struzball said:


> The real panic will come when even Tysonboss gives up hope





i have a feeling houses could fall by 40% and xjo hit 2400 and tyson would still be bullish. no offense tyson

just out of curiosity, if things did crash do people on this forum think it will be by means of deflation or hyper-inflation(perhaps not as relevant here in aus as we aren't printing money even close to the magnitude that other nations are - if we have 'printed' at all)?

naturally both will be bad, but i am personally under the impression that hyper-inflation is worse?


----------



## notting (18 November 2011)

Hyper inflation will not kick in till the Germans either give in to ECB bond buyng/printing of give up on the Euro.  For the Germans to do an about face they will need to go through a collective financial renaissance or nervous breakdown.
It will be interesting to see how long a strong US dollar will be tolerated by the FED till then. Not that I'm expecting a QE3.
None of this is good for our commodity sentiment, though it makes no real difference as our dollar just tanks along with the stronger US$.
Till then uncertainty should make for southerly winds, that may blow for a long long time.
Assuming that the markets can actually be rational.


----------



## young-gun (18 November 2011)

notting said:


> Hyper inflation will not kick in till the Germans either give in to ECB bond buyng/printing of give up on the Euro.  For the Germans to do an about face they will need to go through a collective financial renaissance or nervous breakdown.
> It will be interesting to see how long a strong US dollar will be tolerated by the FED till then. Not that I'm expecting a QE3.
> None of this is good for our commodity sentiment, though it makes no real difference as our dollar just tanks along with the stronger US$.
> Till then uncertainty should make for southerly winds, that may blow for a long long time.
> Assuming that the markets can actually be rational.




You honestly believe bernanke and the ecb can keep their finger off the 'print' money button? i've never been one for gold, or silver for that matter, but with the fed already having mentioned qe3, and a continuing deterioration of the world economy, and the paper money system, gold looks set to soar if they choose take that path? gold would indeed be one of the few assets of value in a hyper-inflationary environment. or perhaps the massive gains over the past 10 years was from some very switched on investors that saw all this coming?

sorry just to clarify, are you of the opinion or currency is too minute to really stand on its own? therefore ours will just do what everyone else's does(or more so the US)?

back on topic down 1.8% today, European bond yields rising, will there ever be such a thing as a sustainable and supported rally ever again?


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> will there ever be such a thing as a sustainable and supported rally ever again?



Yes eventually but traders have been getting locked into poor positions and then patiently squeezed out for a loss. Holding for an extended period in the red is tough but alternatively don't give the market a shot at your dosh by staying out.


----------



## Julia (18 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> back on topic down 1.8% today, European bond yields rising, will there ever be such a thing as a sustainable and supported rally ever again?




Yes.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (19 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> or perhaps the massive gains over the past 10 years was from some very switched on investors that saw all this coming?




Hardly, probably the central bankers (the individuals) who created this mess.



young-gun said:


> back on topic down 1.8% today, European bond yields rising, will there ever be such a thing as a sustainable and supported rally ever again?




So a bull market? No time soon.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 November 2011)

Huge tank in Europe last night and the djia looks like closing down arround 200 points (despite a late rally). No doubt we will tank a bit today.

At some stage our share prices have to reach a point where the knowledge of Europes and the U.S.A problems are already factored in.


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Huge tank in Europe last night and the djia looks like closing down arround 200 points (despite a late rally). No doubt we will tank a bit today.
> 
> At some stage our share prices have to reach a point where the knowledge of Europes and the U.S.A problems are already factored in.






> STANDARD & Poor's have maintained its AA+ credit rating for the United States despite the failure of a special congressional panel to agree huge deficit cuts due to deep political differences.
> 
> "The Fiscal Committee's inability to agree on fiscal measures that would stabilise US government debt as a share of GDP is consistent with our August 5 decision to lower our rating to AA+,'' S&P said,
> 
> "However, we expect the caps on discretionary spending as laid out in the Budget Control Act of 2011 to remain in force. If these limits are eased, downward pressure on the ratings could build.''



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...ommittee-failure/story-e6frf7ko-1226202187894

Laughable. Any other country with similar debt problems & struggling to find any answers would have been slapped down by S&P. But not good ol' Unca Sam who pays their bill$! 

I guess the sheer scale & power of the U$ printing presses is all that matters....

LOL

Only a lil' "tank" today. Nothing to squirm over...


----------



## wayneL (22 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Huge tank in Europe last night and the djia looks like closing down arround 200 points (despite a late rally). No doubt we will tank a bit today.
> 
> At some stage our share prices have to reach a point where the knowledge of Europes and the U.S.A problems are already factored in.




Factor what in though?

We are living in times of Rumsfeldian Unknowns.


----------



## sinner (23 November 2011)

sinner said:


> Anyone else buying puts today? I grabbed a XJO 4100 put MAR-12 for 160pts.
> 
> Hope to exit at a profit and some increased vol by Christmas!




4100 puts now trading nicely above 220.

I thought I would be game to hold this position until the Christmas at least, but right now it feels more like take 35% profit on position and enjoy the sun time. 

See you Jan 9th 2012! I have a feeling I'll be coming in hard longs.


----------



## Mofra (23 November 2011)

wayneL said:


> Factor what in though?
> 
> We are living in times of Rumsfeldian Unknowns.



But... but... they're mostly_ known_ unknowns :


----------



## notting (23 November 2011)

High volume synchronized selling of banks just went down!
Actually RIO and BHP etc included.  Just a big market synchronized sell it seems.


----------



## lenny (23 November 2011)

Markets starting to look ugly below 4100.


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 November 2011)

By the time this rest of the world depression b.s. is over, China will have completed their growth phase and the Aussie market remained depressed through the majority of it. Idjets I tell ya, idjets.


----------



## pixel (23 November 2011)

lenny said:


> Markets starting to look ugly below 4100.



 and as the gap (October 6-7) doesn't look like holding, there are two targets further down: 
Weak support at 3950 and must-hold-or-else at 3850. See chart:


----------



## pixel (23 November 2011)

additional evidence (not "proof")


----------



## nulla nulla (23 November 2011)

There is a weak support point at 4019 in September. Maybe it can hold.  ????


----------



## nulla nulla (24 November 2011)

djia down another 236 overnight (dropped off sharply leading up to the close). The strongest economy in Europe (Germany) was unable to auction off 6 billion euro of bonds yesterday. The bears are back in control.


----------



## satanoperca (24 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> djia down another 236 overnight (dropped off sharply leading up to the close). The strongest economy in Europe (Germany) was unable to auction off 6 billion euro of bonds yesterday. The bears are back in control.




The bears have been in control for two years, this has been nothing more than a dead cat bounce since the GFC started.

Expecting the lows of 3100 to be reached in the next few months. 

Cheers


----------



## investorpaul (24 November 2011)

The failure to sell the Germany Bonds is a positive IMO.

It will now bring the issue right to the forefront of Germany Politicans and the publics mind.

They didnt like helping out all the other countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, etc) because it had not "affected" them to any great extend yet. I.e. They were the strongest economy and money flowing in was not a problem. They were just p^^^^^ that they had to bail everyone else out.

Now they are getting caught up in this mess and will want it fixed quick smart.

This may be the final push needed to fire up those printing presses.


----------



## robz7777 (24 November 2011)

investorpaul said:


> The failure to sell the Germany Bonds is a positive IMO.
> 
> It will now bring the issue right to the forefront of Germany Politicans and the publics mind.
> 
> ...




Time for the Germans to walk away from the Euro, it is now becoming clear to the German people that the other players on 'team' Euro aren't overly concerned with putting in their fair share.  Back to the good old days of cheap holidays in Greece and Portugal!


----------



## VSntchr (24 November 2011)

Options expiryu having an effect today??


----------



## investorpaul (24 November 2011)

robz7777 said:


> Time for the Germans to walk away from the Euro, it is now becoming clear to the German people that the other players on 'team' Euro aren't overly concerned with putting in their fair share.  Back to the good old days of cheap holidays in Greece and Portugal!




If Germany walked (maybe France two) you could then create the Euro-Lite Zone. 

Similar to what a number of Property trusts did with their over-leveraged, rubbish assets, but spinning them off into a separate vehicle.

Euro-Lite could then do a massive QE program (they were stuffed anyway so what does it matter if they ruin the currency some more) to "buy" and "inflate" their way out of this mess.


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 November 2011)

Another "tanking" day for the ASX was looking remote until Japan & Hong Kong opened.... both down well over 1.5%.

Blow the ballast..... stand by to submerge ..... all astern slow.


----------



## robz7777 (24 November 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Another "tanking" day for the ASX was looking remote until Japan & Hong Kong opened.... both down well over 1.5%.
> 
> Blow the ballast..... stand by to submerge ..... all astern slow.




Maybe one last breath before heading south for the summer? 

Have the leaders in Europe 'delayed' for so long because there is no solution to the problems they are currently facing? Or the solutions would be *so* unpopular they don't want to be the one who pulls the trigger..?


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Another "tanking" day for the ASX was looking remote until Japan & Hong Kong opened.... both down well over 1.5%.
> 
> Blow the ballast..... stand by to submerge ..... all astern slow.




Yeah good call.


----------



## notting (24 November 2011)

robz7777 said:


> Have the leaders in Europe 'delayed' for so long because there is no solution to the problems they are currently facing? Or the solutions would be *so* unpopular they don't want to be the one who pulls the trigger..?




The solution is that the ECB print money and buy Euro bonds.
The Problem is that Germans are very angry about the fact that all the other countries in the Euro especially France completely ignored the rules and ran up massive debts.  
The Germans did the right thing and ran responsible fiscal systems.
If the Germans agree to print it will be as if they are supporting irresponsible behavior from the rest and taking on future inflation issues that the others all created.

Apparently France was the first of the countries to just ignore the rules and do what they liked.  The others all looked at that and felt, 'Well their doing it, so we'll do it too!"
The Germans want to see pain, retribution and concrete systems in place to prevent such happening again.  When that is in place they will allow some Euro bond sales backed by QE Euro1. 
The rest of them are hoping Germany will fold when the markets start to collapse.  That way they don't have to push through unpopular reforms and can continue being FruckTwits.


----------



## Chasero (24 November 2011)

Will probably close slightly green 

Big 4 banks and miners pulling it up.


----------



## nomore4s (24 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> Will probably close slightly green
> 
> Big 4 banks and miners pulling it up.




Last hour has seen a pretty strong fade, all strength has disappeared for the moment.


----------



## notting (24 November 2011)

It will probably just float around till Tuesday, waiting for a full trading day from America to tell it what to do next.


----------



## tech/a (24 November 2011)

notting said:


> It will probably just float around till Tuesday, waiting for a full trading day from America to tell it what to do next.




No Its un coupled.
FTSE and DAX will provide lead.


----------



## young-gun (24 November 2011)

notting said:


> The solution is that the ECB print money and buy Euro bonds.




do u believe that printing money is the solution? i hope not...there is no solution.


----------



## notting (24 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> do u believe that printing money is the solution? i hope not...there is no solution.




Solution in the context of making me hit the buy buttons with reckless abandonment and sticking it to China.


----------



## notting (25 November 2011)

Americans are feeling more positive about their local economy
Their on holiday.
The Europeans are in Zombie land and active today.
Mum and Dads have run away.
Result-
Australia exaggerated move down today.:aus:


----------



## Struzball (25 November 2011)

The old "BUT THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!!!"

Lower lows, lower highs.  We're in a massive downtrend, I think at this stage the only way up from here is cashed up aliens from outerspace.


----------



## notting (25 November 2011)

However, ASX relatively oversold, next tick up putting the broad shorts on.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 November 2011)

The americano's went on holidays. They took their money with them. Next week they will be back with there money. We will probabbly have a bounce arround Tuesday. Whether it is sustained or merely a dead cat bounce, only time will tell.


----------



## young-gun (25 November 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The americano's went on holidays. They took their money with them. Next week they will be back with there money. We will probabbly have a bounce arround Tuesday. Whether it is sustained or merely a dead cat bounce, only time will tell.




wish everything would just hurry up and crash already...getting very tired of this slow burning deterioration of the world economy. stop trying to prevent the inevitable and just let it happen!!!! the sooner it does the sooner we can start fresh


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 November 2011)

young-gun said:


> wish everything would just hurry up and crash already...getting very tired of this slow burning deterioration of the world economy. stop trying to prevent the inevitable and just let it happen!!!! the sooner it does the sooner we can start fresh




We have to slow roast in hell first......:evilburn:

LOL


----------



## young-gun (25 November 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> We have to slow roast in hell first......:evilburn:
> 
> LOL




with a steady job(for now) and 0$ debt to my name - bring it on


----------



## lenny (27 November 2011)

Italian 10 year bond yields have risen above 7% @ 7.2%

Spanish 10 year bond yields are not far behind @ 6.7%

How long can these countries sustain rates at these levels before they have to default?


----------



## nulla nulla (27 November 2011)

Kind of ironic that the finance industry having been bailed out by various governments is now holding those governments to ransom for higher bond rates. Blackmail even?


----------



## dutchie (27 November 2011)

The ASX does appear to be tanking!

The solution of course if for everybody to predict that the ASX is going to tank and to take out very small short positions.

This of course will result in the market to go up.


----------



## young-gun (27 November 2011)

lenny said:


> Italian 10 year bond yields have risen above 7% @ 7.2%
> 
> Spanish 10 year bond yields are not far behind @ 6.7%
> 
> How long can these countries sustain rates at these levels before they have to default?





not long...the perfect storm is brewing. Europeans consumption is down which is hurting china exports(not that it matters, china is screwed without the help of other nations, its just going to amplify the magnitude greatly). 

For some reason everyone has completely sidelined the fact that the US of A are probably far worse off than europe, the only reason they appear to be doing ok is because of bernanke and his trigger happy index finger. their growth year to the end of the sept quarter was just 1.5% -  with trillions of dollars of stimulus??????

MO the ECB should not get involved at all, its the smartest move long term.


----------



## lenny (27 November 2011)

dutchie said:


> The solution of course if for everybody to predict that the ASX is going to tank and to take out very small short positions.
> 
> This of course will result in the market to go up.




Not so sure about that. 

The bear market bounce off October 4 low went up 15% in just 18 trading session AMAZING.

There will be alot of retail investors trapped on the long side of market who where tricked into thinking that the bounce was the end of the bear.

There won't be a bottom in till we have seen total capitulation imho.


----------



## IFocus (27 November 2011)

lenny said:


> Italian 10 year bond yields have risen above 7% @ 7.2%
> 
> Spanish 10 year bond yields are not far behind @ 6.7%
> 
> How long can these countries sustain rates at these levels before they have to default?




The Germans failing to sell their full allocation of Bonds is the big one..........


----------



## explod (27 November 2011)

On what we are touching now it is well worth having a good look at what money and bonds really are.

When all added up together, money is really just thin air, or a paper rpomise some say.  After reading this ask yourself, how far are we from a compete tipping point?

Enjoy

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gnazzo/gnazzo051906.html

And note that the complete series of "Honest Money" will be found at the bottom of the link above.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 November 2011)

IFocus said:


> The Germans failing to sell their full allocation of Bonds is the big one..........




I read over the weekend that the problem the Germans had in selling their bonds was that they were trying to get them away at less than 2% which apparantly was less than the rate of inflation. Ergo the bond buyers weren't having any of it.

None the less, the media and rumour mongers had a field day and the markets dropped accordingly. Subsequently, the DAX and the FTSE both closed higher on Friday.

It isn't like the Germans were being forced to pay 6-7% like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece (and probably France soon).


----------



## satanoperca (28 November 2011)

Dont worry about the PIIGS or the US, look a little closer to home. The Great land of Oz is not better than the rest.



> Australia’s foreign debt position relative to the size of the economy is higher than that of the United States or France.






> In December 2010, David Murray, Chairman of the Future Fund and former CEO of the Commonwealth Bank, issued a stern warning on Australia’s high level of net foreign liabilities, which had reached nearly 60% of GDP:




http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/11/we-should-listen-to-david-murray-now/

Are what is Australia's biggest threat, the price of housing and the debt that goes with it. 

China slows, Australia falls. 

As for Europe, well everyone can believe there is an upside, I just cannot see it. When the powers to be still think that adding more debt/fuel to the fire will put it out then we havn't even got to first base.

Cheers


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 November 2011)

satanoperca said:


> Dont worry about the PIIGS or the US, look a little closer to home. The Great land of Oz is not better than the rest.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Not to worry. In Oz we are "promised" huge wealth and prosperity from never-ending resources boom! 

As explod hinted at in his last post, money is really nothing more than a "promise" by A that the bit of paper they passed to B is actually worth "something". In the harsh light of reality, (say, on a desert island you have a Billion in cash but nothing to spend it on) it is worth buckleys squit. 

All comes down to airy-fairy "sentiment", "confidence" & vague notions of "value". Greed & lust for money is a strange human trait fortunately not exhibited by most other creatures on the planet! 

Ahhh, all ya gotta do is lie back and BELIEVE, bros 'n sistas - belief is all you need. 

Apparently.

LOL.

AOrds up sharply this am in the belief that ECB & IMF have all the answers.

Apparently...


----------



## tminus (28 November 2011)

what the hell happened ASX dropped 25 points in 3 minutes


----------



## Credfield (28 November 2011)

tminus said:


> what the hell happened ASX dropped 25 points in 3 minutes




It has recovered now but what hell happened?


----------



## tminus (28 November 2011)

there was story about BHP at 2.14pm 
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-report-pd20111128-P25RL?OpenDocument&src=hp4


----------



## skc (28 November 2011)

tminus said:


> there was story about BHP at 2.14pm
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-report-pd20111128-P25RL?OpenDocument&src=hp4




Doubt that was the cause... Business spectator doesn't move markets.

It was some news from Europe I think but I have no idea what happened.

Pretty much all the way back now so if there was any substance to the news then now is a great place to go short.


----------



## Struzball (28 November 2011)

Good support at 4100, there should be a run up to 4200 at least before resuming the down trend.

Those sharp falls whatever the reason are never good.


----------



## skyQuake (28 November 2011)

Credfield said:


> It has recovered now but what hell happened?




DJ REPORTS OF IMF PACKAGE FOR ITALY NOT CREDIBLE - INTERNATIONAL  FINANCIAL OFFICIALS

More rumourtrage...


----------



## skc (28 November 2011)

skyQuake said:


> DJ REPORTS OF IMF PACKAGE FOR ITALY NOT CREDIBLE - INTERNATIONAL  FINANCIAL OFFICIALS
> 
> More rumourtrage...




Which one? The one about IMF doing the rescue or the one about IMF can't do the rescue?

I guess we are due for a relief rally...


----------



## 6figures (28 November 2011)

Struzball said:


> Good support at 4100, there should be a run up to 4200 at least before resuming the down trend.
> 
> Those sharp falls whatever the reason are never good.




down turn tomorrow.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (28 November 2011)

skyQuake said:


> DJ REPORTS OF IMF PACKAGE FOR ITALY NOT CREDIBLE - INTERNATIONAL  FINANCIAL OFFICIALS
> 
> More rumourtrage...




Someone (Goldman) is making a ridiculous amount of money off this bull**** market manipulation.

Amazing that authorities never do anything about it....


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Someone (Goldman) is making a ridiculous amount of money off this bull**** market manipulation.
> 
> Amazing that authorities never do anything about it....




Perhaps these so-called "authorities" are afraid to finger those deemed "Too Big To Touch"? 

Perhaps these so-called "authorities" are themselves involved in more than just a tad of "market manipulation" through hype and central bank manouvres?

IMHO the notion of "free market" capitalist fundamentals driving all world financial market movements has been trashed since 2008 by a wave of neo-con-quasi-socialist ideals vomited up by panic-stricken poo-heads from all sides of the political spectrum. A somewhat sickening mix, I know.... 

Oh well, looks like the latest 24Hr hype & spin has gone well this time. 

Let the Market Zumba Party re-start!!

Mr Media will of course exhort everyone to SPEND, SPEND, SPEND like there is no tomorrow! Don't worry! There is unlimited printed ca$h to back the world to hell and beyond! Borrow as much as you think you can afford then DOUBLE DOWN!! Don't miss the Boom Bus!!

Well, sorry. I don't actually buy that crap anymore. I'm growing old and tired of these increasingly convoluted mind-games. This 24/7 frenetic NetBetWorld is clearly being designed for young-uns. Go forth & party on if you want. I'm just gonna sit back with the missus & watch the fallout when it comes raining back down again before too long. 

chiz.


----------



## explod (29 November 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Perhaps these so-called "authorities" are afraid to finger those deemed "Too Big To Touch"?
> 
> Oh well, looks like the latest 24Hr hype & spin has gone well this time.
> 
> chiz.




Well the Dow pumped up 250 points on the open 15 minutes then struggled to increase the rest of the day with a bit of a drop but was pumped again in the last 15 minutes just to let us know who's Boss.

The authorities are owned buy the big guys, "Don't you worry about that" said dear Joe of Qld


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 November 2011)

explod said:


> Well the Dow pumped up 250 points on the open 15 minutes then struggled to increase the rest of the day with a bit of a drop but was pumped again in the last 15 minutes just to let us know who's Boss.
> 
> The authorities are owned buy the big guys, *"Don't you worry about that" said dear Joe of Qld*




*sigh*.. oh for the good ol' days!

"Feeding the chooks" has never had the same meaning, post Joh...


----------



## Knobby22 (29 November 2011)

explod said:


> Well the Dow pumped up 250 points on the open 15 minutes then struggled to increase the rest of the day with a bit of a drop but was pumped again in the last 15 minutes just to let us know who's Boss.




That does suggest major manipulation.  Isn't there a regulatory supervisor that should be looking into it, or have cost savings been made on this as it "unfrees" the market.


----------



## explod (29 November 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> That does suggest major manipulation.  Isn't there a regulatory supervisor that should be looking into it, or have cost savings been made on this as it "unfrees" the market.




The regulators were told to toe the line by J Edgar Hoover 80 years ago.


----------



## notting (29 November 2011)

explod said:


> Well the Dow pumped up 250 points on the open 15 minutes then struggled to increase the rest of the day with a bit of a drop but was pumped again in the last 15 minutes just to let us know who's Boss.




The boss is the headline following lame, blind and drunken Santa.  
*Low volume* rally in the US.  
Get ready for the sun it's going to be a hot one.


----------



## baby_swallow (1 December 2011)

Looks like Santa came to town a bit early.......(you better watch out!!!)


----------



## noirua (1 December 2011)

baby_swallow said:


> Looks like Santa came to town a bit early.......(you better watch out!!!)




Yes, Santa has arrived indeed with the Dow up 4.25% signalling a massive increase in the ASX at 10am this morning. Even gold stocks joined in with increases ranging to 12% with comments in London for producers to double and just a few saying before Xmas.

All


----------



## notting (1 December 2011)

I told you he was drunk!
Looking at the trajectory of the 'slay' it's seems he will miss the entire east and west and land in the south poll.  
Use it to lose it if it's long.
Then again I'm normally wrong.


----------



## Chasero (1 December 2011)

I'm guessing this rally is going to last 2-3 days at most??

What are the chances of a xmas rally?  Santa pls be good to us


----------



## nulla nulla (1 December 2011)

Last night was all "we will work it out", tomorrow will be "how?". Will the surge continue or falter?


----------



## Tyler Durden (1 December 2011)

So let me get this straight - governments are in debt, and the banks just made it cheaper to borrow even more money. And this is why the market went up???


----------



## tinhat (2 December 2011)

Resistance at 4400. Santa Claus rally to me is the XAO at or above 4500.


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 December 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> So let me get this straight - governments are in debt, and the banks just made it cheaper to borrow even more money. And this is why the market went up???




You got it.

Easier money for bwanker$ = easier road to riche$.

For them at least.


----------



## young-gun (2 December 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> So let me get this straight - governments are in debt, and the banks just made it cheaper to borrow even more money. And this is why the market went up???




its like us having credit cards maxed out, but we cant afford to pay them off, so new people keep coming up to us offering us a slightly lower interest rate on a new card to pay off the existing, i can only assume accruing interest all the while.

arvo rally to finish off today by the looks of it. and after our banks have been downgraded? apparently they're rather upbeat about it  must still be riding the debt for debt rally


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 December 2011)

young-gun said:


> its like us having credit cards maxed out, but we cant afford to pay them off, so new people keep coming up to us offering us a slightly lower interest rate on a new card to pay off the existing, i can only assume accruing interest all the while.
> 
> arvo rally to finish off today by the looks of it. and after our banks have been downgraded? apparently they're rather upbeat about it  must still be riding the debt for debt rally




Yeah. Eventually, with all interest at 0%, debt will cost nobody anything at all.

FREE MONEY!!! Yaaaay!!

Wake me when the dream is over.....


----------



## young-gun (2 December 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Yeah. Eventually, with all interest at 0%, debt will cost nobody anything at all.
> 
> FREE MONEY!!! Yaaaay!!
> 
> Wake me when the dream is over.....




to bad governments cant afford to pay back what they owe let alone interest aswell. im glad im not the one handing out low cost loans to these people - although i probably am in some way with this twisted financial system.


----------



## nulla nulla (2 December 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Last night was all "we will work it out", tomorrow will be "how?". Will the surge continue or falter?




Seems nobody cares how. Someone must have popped the champagne for the xmas party a bit early. Anyone know why else there was a late rally this afternoon?


----------



## notting (3 December 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Seems nobody cares how. Someone must have popped the champagne for the xmas party a bit early. Anyone know why else there was a late rally this afternoon?



Anticipation of positive jobs report from US tonight, Banks less at risk from contagion due to new liquidity.

I think the policy makers are hoping that there will be more optimism, so bond rates will go down and Italy, Spain and France will be able to fund their interests rates!! 

Things can muddle along if they can pay and hopefully US growth and China growth will lift things up from there, and pigs are pulling the sled tonight.


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 December 2011)

notting said:


> Anticipation of positive jobs report from US tonight, Banks less at risk from contagion due to new liquidity.
> 
> I think the policy makers are hoping that there will be more optimism, so bond rates will go down and Italy, Spain and France will be able to fund their interests rates!!
> 
> Things can muddle along if they can pay and hopefully US growth and China growth will lift things up from there, and pigs are pulling the sled tonight.




Some say 'tis "The Silly Season".

Some might be right!

Party on....


----------



## notting (5 December 2011)

*Psssst.* I know the DOW is shaping up nicely and all that but,
just quietly,  noticed a few cracks appearing in the Chinese wall!?
'*The resources. The resources*,' - Apocolypse Now.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 December 2011)

Aparrently Standard and Poors has indicated it may downgrade Germany. 

Seriously, who rates the agencies?


----------



## notting (6 December 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Seriously, who rates the agencies?



Apparantly the market does :bloated:


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 December 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Aparrently Standard and Poors has indicated it may downgrade Germany.
> 
> Seriously, who rates the agencies?




Not just Germany, but 14 others as well....



> .
> 
> *Standard & Poor’s said Germany and France may be stripped of their AAA credit ratings as the debt crisis prompts 15 euro nations to be put on review for possible downgrade. *
> 
> ...



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ions-on-downgrade-watch-over-debt-crisis.html

Mr Market says "meh...."

Ratings agencies lost ALL credibility after GFC1 blew up in their smug faces....

IMO


----------



## skc (6 December 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Aparrently Standard and Poors has indicated it may downgrade Germany.
> 
> Seriously, who rates the agencies?




There are many many financial contracts, mandates etc that contain clauses related to credit agency ratings. I think European nation's contribution to ECB and EFSF are also dependent on credit ratings.

So while most individuals would think these agencies are a joke... there are real and substantial implications stemming from the rating.


----------



## lenny (6 December 2011)

Looks like today will be about distribution, with big end un winding positions at top of range.


----------



## notting (6 December 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Mr Market says "meh...."IMO




Market fell 1% in the space of about 30mins on the back of the ratings agencie rumour!

I heard an analogy this morning regarding the SP500.  
They said the situation is like a huge poker game.  
The traders are now *all in* and have called Euro to ‘show their cards this weekend’ being the pivotal last chance given the big synchronised intervention last week to stave off the Lehmans like freeze up of credit markets.

So if the traders are ‘all in’ betting that the news will be constructive and bond buying will commence shortly by a more transparent ECB intervention, will the market rally further given the traders are ‘all in’ already?

*Buy the news sell the fact?*

What do we think the traders will focus on at that point even if it seems better?
Let’s say the news is good.  There is unity and the massive debt is going to be *managed*.

*Santa?*

Down grades of Euroland regardless of the new unity.
The unity was the easy part and took only 15 emergency meatings to have a hand shake on a plan! The implementation may be slightly more bazaar and difficult!

On the previously positive part of the world.
*China is slowing faster than planned* for.

The Sundance bid is quite interesting.  The Chinese of course could be playing poor to get a good deal, however, it is the first time I have seen a takeover bid put in doubt due to a *China State owned bank rejecting a loan to a state controlled company bidding for a miner at a good price*.  One reason given was *timing*, ie the Chinese  think commodities are not so urgently needed for a while!?

Just 2 weeks ago the Chinese, who tend to be quite good at commenting on the global economic outlook, stated that the Euro zone is headed for *extreme recession* .

With all the anticipated joy of Euroland unity this weekend, the price tag of enforced austerity measures all over the place and expected *extreme *negative growth, means less government income regardless of austerity.  Couple that with difficulty of implementing unity and austerity.

*Christmess?*


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 December 2011)

notting said:


> *Christmess?*




Nah. [size=+1]*$*[/size]anta is going on a Reindeer Rally.

Have a Merry Xme$$!


----------



## notting (6 December 2011)

Sarkozy said during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we're going full steam ahead to re-establish confidence in the euro and the euro zone."

Oh yes.  It's confidence that's required. No more of this unpalatable austerity stuff for my voters.    We have Germany don't we Angela? There for we can be confident and everyone should be confident especially the Chinese should be confident in our bonds.  I told them,  'Look, if we go down Germany goes down, that's not going to happen. What are you waiting for.' 

Monties prooving to be a hero and a true leader, with no nonesense plan and renouncing his own salary, for a job he doesn't want but is doing out of a sense of duty.  Cool.  Very cool.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (7 December 2011)

notting said:


> Monties prooving to be a hero and a true leader, with no nonesense plan and renouncing his own salary, for a job he doesn't want but is doing out of a sense of duty.  Cool.  Very cool.




Are you serious? Do you know the infinite quantities of money he is getting from Goldman Sachs right now?


----------



## notting (7 December 2011)

Is infinite the number? Didn't realise Gold men had that kind of capacity.


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 December 2011)

notting said:


> Sarkozy said during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we're going full steam ahead to re-establish *con*fidence in the euro and the euro zone."
> 
> Oh yes.  It's *con*fidence that's required. No more of this unpalatable austerity stuff for my voters.    We have Germany don't we Angela? There for we can be *con*fident and everyone should be *con*fident especially the Chinese should be *con*fident in our bonds.  I told them,  'Look, if we go down Germany goes down, that's not going to happen. What are you waiting for.'
> 
> Monties prooving to be a hero and a true leader, with no nonesense plan and renouncing his own salary, for a job he doesn't want but is doing out of a sense of duty.  Cool.  Very cool.




Just thought I'd highlight _the_ most important parts of that.... *con* waffle. After all, we ARE *con*sumers, aren't we?

Hope you don't mind.


----------



## notting (7 December 2011)

tech/a said:


> No Its un coupled.
> FTSE and DAX will provide lead.




Interesting to see what we R pegged to this morning with destinctly different leads.


----------



## notting (8 December 2011)

Sounds about right:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45578528


----------



## Aussiejeff (8 December 2011)

notting said:


> Sounds about right:
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/45578528




He is a Blasphemer Against The Gods Of Growth!
Cast him out!!


----------



## nulla nulla (13 December 2011)

Looks like reality is starting to bite hard in Europe and the U.S.

Be interesting to see how much we give back today on the xao. Not sure whether it will be a buy day for the next rebound or the start of a further run down to the 4000 area (or lower)? 

Bayonets fixed, take no prisoners.


----------



## howmanyru (13 December 2011)

The XAO seems to be locked into a 10% swing between 4000 & 4400 depending on the news of the week. Pretty pathetic really, soooo boring, but good for the traders. Hope to see a sustained move in some direction early next year ???


----------



## notting (13 December 2011)

Italian Bond yields back up to 6 and 7%
Moody's to downgrade 8 Spanish banks :hide:



howmanyru said:


> soooo boring, but good for the traders. Hope to see a sustained move in some direction early next year ???




What's boring to me is an overvalued market continuing to move up for 10 years!! 
At least there is value now and unbelievable value soon.  That's exciting!!


----------



## notting (14 December 2011)

Ratings agencies now looking to dowmgrade US banks. 
Perhaps these ratings agencies really were providing a better service before the GFC, by over valueing everything, except Ausi banks.  
Confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus, lack of it - most destructive for market price action.


----------



## wayneL (14 December 2011)

notting said:


> unbelievable value soon.  That's exciting!!




I think the value (supposing everything turns to shyte) will not be immediate or apparent.

The trick will be to identify stock which will deliver future value... but that depends on exactly how much shyte we are in.

I've become decidedly less bearish than I once was, simply because I know realize they will just flip the nitrous oxide switch on the printing presses when things get too uncomfortable.

The "Mad Max" scenario is still out there, but way into the future IMO.


----------



## prawn_86 (14 December 2011)

wayneL said:


> .I've become decidedly less bearish than I once was, ...
> The "Mad Max" scenario is still out there, but way into the future IMO.




I'm the same to be honest. Over the last couple weeks all i have heard (even from cab drivers) is how screwed the World economy is and how we are heading for a massive depression.

It seems to me that everyone is expecting a crash and when that is the case its unlikely to happen. Im thinking a year or 2 of sideways movement before everyone gets over it and then we repeat the cycle again. Or we just stagnate for 10 - 20 years....

Either way i cant see a huge crash coming in the shorter term


----------



## explod (14 December 2011)

The Dow pushes sentiment around. From its peak overnight it in fact dropped nearly 150 points in the final three hours.

The long term monthly shows lower highs since its peak in late 2007.  The current action looks ominously like the action in mid 2008 just before the crash.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=43&y=13

It could be on us any day now over the next month or so in my view.

As far as the taxi driver talk is concerned, almost every family knows of someones hours being cut back or of losing jobs.


----------



## wayneL (14 December 2011)

explod said:


> The Dow pushes sentiment around. From its peak overnight it in fact dropped nearly 150 points in the final three hours.
> 
> The long term monthly shows lower highs since its peak in late 2007.  The current action looks ominously like the action in mid 2008 just before the crash.
> 
> ...




I think the double dip recession is on the cards for sure and it might just be quite serious. But it won't be anything aberrant according to the Austrian business cycle... bearing in mind the gu'mint intervention thus far.

I see any severe and imminent recession as healthy, but we should expect further intervention resulting in inflation. There is just too much injected cash sloshing around for a bona fide crash and calamitous depression IME however.

I wouldn't discount it altogether, but low probability IMO.

FWIW


----------



## skc (14 December 2011)

wayneL said:


> The "Mad Max" scenario is still out there, but way into the future IMO.




But my stockpile of baked beans expires in May 2013  

P.S. If you choose to use baked beans as your main source of food in a Mad Max world, make sure your bunker has good ventilation.


----------



## notting (14 December 2011)

skc said:


> But my stockpile of baked beans expires in May 2013



 Don't worry. They tend to last much longer than the 'forcast' 'use buy' date!!


----------



## craft (14 December 2011)

I wish I had a dollar for every time I have seen “printing press” referred to in the last few years.

But I’m a bit confused.  In the private sector money is created when people take on debt, how is that any different to the Government creating money by taking on debt?

I see sovereigns stepping into the breach to ease the economic impact of private deleveraging.  But so far they are doing so by taking on debt obligations.  I have not seen any money created without a corresponding obligation – so why all the talk about running the printing press when in reality no one (excluding Zimbabwe)  has been near the big red button yet? 

So long as there is an obligation to repay and a mechanism to control interest rates, runaway inflation can be controlled and the ultimate weapon against deflation is ‘true’ printing (without obligation)

The issue with monetary policy is not that it is setting us up for disastrous extremes which cannot be controlled but that it has a limit in being able to generate real growth.  In a finite world perhaps that’s not such a bad thing – once everything is repriced to recognise that reality.

An adjustment to the growth paradigm is probably going to take a while with quite a few rotations between “Growth is back” and the “sky is falling” still to come.  

That’s the big picture delusion I work under - I prefer it to the doomsday versions.


----------



## notting (14 December 2011)

The true value is measured by how much copper you can buy having done an hour of work in China Vs how much copper you can buy having done an hour of work in the US.  
If you can buy more copper in the US then they can print till the score is even so can the Europeans. 
Inflation is the developed worlds politically effective way of raising taxes whilst selling tax relief! 
No more $10 toasters for us!


----------



## Starcraftmazter (14 December 2011)

craft said:


> An adjustment to the growth paradigm is probably going to take a while with quite a few rotations between “Growth is back” and the “sky is falling” still to come.




This is the issue, the economic and monetary system of the world is set up for perpetual growth. It can take a recession in between, but it must have growth always - otherwise it collapses. There is no such thing as in between.


----------



## banco (14 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> I'm the same to be honest. Over the last couple weeks all i have heard (even from cab drivers) is how screwed the World economy is and how we are heading for a massive depression.
> 
> It seems to me that everyone is expecting a crash and when that is the case its unlikely to happen. Im thinking a year or 2 of sideways movement before everyone gets over it and then we repeat the cycle again. Or we just stagnate for 10 - 20 years....
> 
> Either way i cant see a huge crash coming in the shorter term




Probably true for Australia but it's really difficult to see how the Europe situation ends well.


----------



## wayneL (15 December 2011)

craft said:


> I wish I had a dollar for every time I have seen “printing press” referred to in the last few years.
> 
> But I’m a bit confused.  In the private sector money is created when people take on debt, how is that any different to the Government creating money by taking on debt?
> 
> ...




Thanks for that craft, that made me go check my facts, I'll never use that phrase again until it's accurate.

In fact here is a good article from Cullen Roche, with further info in the comments http://pragcap.com/the-exploding-u-s-money-supply-myth


----------



## prawn_86 (15 December 2011)

banco said:


> Probably true for Australia but it's really difficult to see how the Europe situation ends well.




The Europe situation ends with a Eurozone bloc still there for travelling etc but the vast majority taking back their own (or new) currencies. From a logistical standpoint though this will take at least a couple years to print new money, dual prices good etc etc same as when the EUR was phased in


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 December 2011)

Our region seems to be going through a sell off in reaction to  Kim Jong's death,

In my opinion ( and it's probally worth as much as you paid for it ), This will be a short sell off, and once the news is digested there will be a quick snap back in the coming day or so.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 December 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Our region seems to be going through a sell off in reaction to  Kim Jong's death,
> 
> In my opinion ( and it's probally worth as much as you paid for it ), This will be a short sell off, and once the news is digested there will be a quick snap back in the coming day or so.




Our market was down before the announcement, so definitely not all contributed to this


----------



## wayneL (19 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> The Europe situation ends with a Eurozone bloc still there for travelling etc but the vast majority taking back their own (or new) currencies. From a logistical standpoint though this will take at least a couple years to print new money, dual prices good etc etc same as when the EUR was phased in




IMO this would be a good outcome.

Monetary union without fiscal union is an absurdity that could never work long term... unless they imagined fiscal unity soon.

But that is just a Fabian wet dream IMO.


----------



## skc (19 December 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Our region seems to be going through a sell off in reaction to  Kim Jong's death,
> 
> In my opinion ( and it's probally worth as much as you paid for it ), This will be a short sell off, and once the news is digested there will be a quick snap back in the coming day or so.




Korea's kospi is gyrating a bit but is off the low by ~1%. For them Kim's depth certainly increases uncertainty, but I'd argue that the chance of a positive outcome is probably as good as aa negative one.

I am definitely not an expert in Korean affairs, but I've been to Korea for a holiday if that counts for anything.


----------



## wayneL (19 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Our market was down before the announcement, so definitely not all contributed to this




Thanks.

I would have thought markets would have lokked atr bthis as neutrak to positive.

BWTFDIK


----------



## Julia (19 December 2011)

skc said:


> I am definitely not an expert in Korean affairs, but I've been to Korea for a holiday if that counts for anything.




North Korea?


----------



## skc (19 December 2011)

Julia said:


> North Korea?




South Korea of course . Not sure North Korea has a share market or is open for holiday.


----------



## sinner (19 December 2011)

skc said:


> South Korea of course . Not sure North Korea has a share market or is open for holiday.




You can go to NK, they only deny journalists and people from SK usually (AFAIK, haven't been). You can't stray far from Pyongyang without your DPRK appointed tour guide though.

The main tourist country visiting NK was affluent Chinese who live near the border, but apparently tourism has dropped significantly over the last 12 months.


----------



## sinner (19 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> The Europe situation ends with a Eurozone bloc still there for travelling etc but the vast majority taking back their own (or new) currencies. From a logistical standpoint though this will take at least a couple years to print new money, dual prices good etc etc same as when the EUR was phased in




What are you basing this on? I disagree.

I am a proponent of FOFOA/FOA/Another freegold (conspiracy) theory, I think the EUR is here to stay and in fact will sooner or later replace the USD as the currency which settles global trade while gold takes the same position on all balance sheets such as already exists on the ECB balance sheet (i.e. primary savings unit).

If you are game to read a long blog post rather different from the usual goldbug stuff,

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/07/euro-gold.html

Is one of many posts covering the topic.

At the right price, only a small amount of gold from Italy or Greece's coffers would be needed to rebalance their deficits to Germany  overnight. Eurozone looks vastly different if you count gold reserves. Look at Italy!


----------



## Julia (19 December 2011)

skc said:


> South Korea of course . Not sure North Korea has a share market or is open for holiday.



Not "of course" at all, skc, as Sinner's post describes.  I don't know where the question of whether North Korea has a share market or not comes into your saying that you had been "to Korea" for a holiday.



sinner said:


> You can go to NK, they only deny journalists and people from SK usually (AFAIK, haven't been). You can't stray far from Pyongyang without your DPRK appointed tour guide though.



Quite.  I know people who have been to N. Korea on a rigidly guided holiday.


----------



## McLovin (19 December 2011)

Julia said:


> Quite.  I know people who have been to N. Korea on a rigidly guided holiday.





I've been. Interesting place. Like a big Stalinist theme park. You see what they want you to see. Anyone who thinks NK is better in any way than the US needs their head examined.

You can't leave the hotel without your guide and the hotel for Westerners is on an island, so no real chance of getting out and about (not that there is much to see anyway). Funnily enough, the hotel had a brothel, casino, nightclub and bowling alley which was staffed by Chinese. The North Koreans who had worked in the lobby bar for 5 or so years had never been into the basement, where all the Western decadence existed!

ETA: Visas are denied for Japanese, SK and Israelis. Americans are allowed to visit only during the period when the Mass Games are on.


----------



## Knobby22 (20 December 2011)

Did you play the gold course McLovin?


----------



## McLovin (20 December 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> Did you play the gold course McLovin?




Sure did. I also went to the "Pyongyang International Film Festival for Non-Aligned and Other Developing Countries". We got to sit through a 6 hour NK musical.


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 December 2011)

Hoorah!

"No tank today,
The slump has gone away,
The DOW is climbing fast,
Is this too good to last?"

Yup. The :santa: Rally has arrived, kiddies.

Enjoy.....

:chimney


----------



## wayneL (21 December 2011)

Everything is upside down.. there is more volatility to the upside than the downside.

♫Strange days indeed, most peculiar momma♫


----------



## brerwallabi (21 December 2011)

wayneL said:


> Everything is upside down.. there is more volatility to the upside than the downside.
> 
> ♫Strange days indeed, most peculiar momma♫




Does that mean we get there quicker and come back slowly

Always something happening and nothing going on


----------



## baby_swallow (21 December 2011)

As usual during this time of the year - when the big cats are away the mice will have some fun. When the big cats comes back from hibernation in the middle of January next year, they will be feasting ...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif


----------



## McCoy Pauley (21 December 2011)

baby_swallow said:


> As usual during this time of the year - when the big cats are away the mice will have some fun. When the big cats comes back from hibernation in the middle of January next year, they will be feasting ...https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif




Funnily enough, Alan Kohler has been warning subscribers to the Eureka Report since last Saturday that he foresees a very big correction in equities early in 2012.


----------



## sinner (21 December 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Funnily enough, Alan Kohler has been warning subscribers to the Eureka Report since last Saturday that he foresees a very big correction in equities early in 2012.




I am personally bullish for 2012 and will look for signs of healthy breadth before entering in January.

However I've been watching the AUD money market spreads, (i.e. Dec 3M AUDLIBOR vs Jan 3M AUDLIBOR vs Feb 3M AUDLIBOR vs March 3M AUDLIBOR) and clearly something has been stinking up Aussie markets since June/July 2011. 

It's been interesting to observe countries with twisted money markets (AUDLIBOR, EURIBOR, Short Sterling, Brazil, India) have their respective stock indices relatively well below their 200MAs vs the US which seems to have a normal Eurodollar market at the moment and *relatively* well performing stock index. I guess you could call it "classic credit deflation", when the banks loan less money into the economy, the market prices that right in.

For readers interest I looked up the AUD 3M LIBOR vs AUD 3M Gov yield, you can see things aren't looking pretty. Bond yields down means bond prices up, so when Gov rate is outperforming the AUDLIBOR (interbank yield) it means Aus banks are being much more cautious lending to each other and stocking their short term capital in "risk free" govvy cash.




EDIT: Compare current conditions on the above spread versus how it looked May 2010 when the flash crash was happening and AUDUSD lost 10%...not a blip on this chart. Todays conditions are much more serious.

If you were curious, on Jun 30 govs were yielding 4.7ish and AUDLIBOR at 4.8ish. Today govs yielding 3.1ish and AUDLIBOR yielding 4.6ish. AUDLIBOR yields have actually gone up since the start of Dec compared to yields in 3M ausgovs which have *collapsed*.



This is just plain stinky behaviour, ripe for violent swings and big gaps.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (21 December 2011)

sinner said:


> This is just plain stinky behaviour, ripe for violent swings and big gaps.




In what, the stockmarket?


----------



## notting (23 December 2011)

I think what the ECB did was about as smart a thing as possible under the circumstances.
We could be in for another 2009 like bounce.
The republicans may try to pull something out of the hat to skittle it so they can talk down Obamas economics record but that will be hard to achieve wiithout egging themselves.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 January 2012)

So how is every one feeling now.

Are people still worried or is it Happy days again.

How do people feel about decisions they have made over the past 3 months.


----------



## 6figures (19 January 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> So how is every one feeling now.
> 
> Are people still worried or is it Happy days again.
> 
> How do people feel about decisions they have made over the past 3 months.




I feel no better.. Job cuts, worlds bank cutting global forcasts to 2.6%.. Greece default nearing again, it feels like the bubbles about to burst.. 

I am trying to minimise my exposure to Europe and globally if anything, fundamentally Australia is a strong economy but this time if we see GFC2 it wont be a "technical" recession..

At the end of the day the markets are trading on news day to day..


----------



## adamim1 (19 January 2012)

I've got a feeling that we may see one more big pull back in possibly feb/march and maybe the printing press will officially turn on. Yeah its going to kick the can down the road, but its going to make it much easier to trade when this market finally finds a trend rather then trading in this current sideways range.


----------



## Chasero (19 January 2012)

6figures said:


> I feel no better.. Job cuts, worlds bank cutting global forcasts to 2.6%.. Greece default nearing again, it feels like the bubbles about to burst..
> 
> I am trying to minimise my exposure to Europe and globally if anything, fundamentally Australia is a strong economy but this time if we see GFC2 it wont be a "technical" recession..
> 
> At the end of the day the markets are trading on news day to day..




I feel as though everyones a step ahead.

$500b for IMF np. More monetary easing from China? No prob. Will happen soon.

Wait till the end of Feb when Greece starts hitting the news again


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 January 2012)

6figures said:


> I feel no better.. Job cuts, worlds bank cutting global forcasts to 2.6%.. Greece default nearing again, it feels like the bubbles about to burst..
> 
> I am trying to minimise my exposure to Europe and globally if anything, fundamentally Australia is a strong economy but this time if we see GFC2 it wont be a "technical" recession..
> 
> At the end of the day the markets are trading on news day to day..




I am Still pretty bullish, just as I was 3 months ago.

I am a glass half full type of guy, When I see the Employment figures I see 95% employment rather than the 5% unemplyment, and I see 2.6% growth as OK,


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 January 2012)

adamim1 said:


> I've got a feeling that we may see one more big pull back in possibly feb/march




I hope so, I sold heaps of puts throughout the recent down turn which have made some good returns, But I didn't actually load up on much stock, I was saving my capital to load up should my puts get exercised, I just hope I get another chance to sell another round of puts or take some stock.


----------



## 6figures (19 January 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I am Still pretty bullish, just as I was 3 months ago.
> 
> I am a glass half full type of guy, When I see the Employment figures I see 95% employment rather than the 5% unemplyment, and I see 2.6% growth as OK,




I agree to an extent, however how bullish are you? are you willing to put a majority of your capital into the market at this point in time? 

I see this time as an opportunity to really pick up the value stocks at a good price.. but I would rather pick up a value stock when the market is stable and trending away from these volatile markets.

Also bearing in mind that 5% unemployment is in Australia, and if you rely on that particular data to be bullish it is mearly a lagging indicator... with job cuts announced across major banks, I think we are yet to see the full extent of this crisis. I think you need to take into consideration employment figures world wide... Spain 21.5%? US 9.1%? Greece 18%? 

The markets react daily to profit news, ratings cuts, unemployment data, etc.. until we know for sure that the Euro has stopped kicking this can down the road we can only speculate..


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 January 2012)

6figures said:


> are you willing to put a majority of your capital into the market at this point in time?
> 
> ..




The majority of my capital ( outside of my business and property assets) is in the market.

I have some cash ready to deploy if I need to, I have been sitting on this incase some of the deep out of the money puts I was selling got exercised.

My cash holdings are probably only about 20% of the size of my equity holdings,


----------



## McCoy Pauley (19 January 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I am Still pretty bullish, just as I was 3 months ago.
> 
> I am a glass half full type of guy, When I see the Employment figures I see 95% employment rather than the 5% unemplyment, and I see 2.6% growth as OK,




To be pedantic, it's 95% employment of those wanting to work and due to fiddles with the statistics, you're a worker if you work one hour a week.  You need to take into account the participation rate, which is falling (never a good sign, because it means people are giving up looking for work).


----------



## Bill M (19 January 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> So how is every one feeling now.
> 
> Are people still worried or is it Happy days again.
> 
> How do people feel about decisions they have made over the past 3 months.




I couldn't be happier myself. Back in November 2011 when the All Ords nearly hit 4,000 I topped up on a stock and since then it paid a nice dividend. All the other stocks that I hold kept on paying those dividend's as well (December is a very good Month for that). Now I have accumulated surplus cash and I am waiting for that correction to 3,800 to deploy but it hasn't come. Originally I was going to wait until 3800 but it was too good to refuse at 4000. Apart from property I am 50% shares and 50% cash, waiting, waiting and waiting for that supposed crash.


----------



## notting (19 January 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> So how is every one feeling now.




America seems to be feeling pretty good about itself. That's about all that matters.

I have been surprised, however, about the fact that Greece has suddenly become news again.  I was kind of under the impression that that had been ring fenced and plugged.
Italy, they say, runs a decent surplus hence can handle it's high bond costs so the blow out the scarred the pants off me prior was not so bad APPARANTLY!

Leading up to Christmas they were all chanting, first half of 2012 is going to be nasty.  Then it's going to be better.  I'm thinking, market is supposed to be ahead of the game by about that so, what's the problem?

My thinking is feeling a little incomplete now that teeny weeny Greece is still a problem, that's not a problem but so far the rally is traveling as expected.  Have been covering bets mostly but allowing some little large exposures to run when low volume selling over Christmas looked amateurish.  Always a good opportunity that!!  
So happier than before!


----------



## nulla nulla (20 January 2012)

Marcus Padley was on "The Report" channel 10 last night. He basically said that all the gloom and doomer economists/analysts have their own agenda, being able to make recommendations to their clients on which they make their living. Accordingly it is all bull dust because they really haven't got a clue.

It goes up, it goes down, trade the swings.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (20 January 2012)

The market is no longer tanking but whether that's because investors/speculators think the sentiment of the newsflow is improving or because they've been inoculated to the newsflow is yet to be seen.

Looking at the macro picture, I see more risks to the downside than to the upside.  Australia's economy is at a tipping point.  Unless you live in a state dominated by the resources economy (and even then, it's not all beer and skittles), your economy is in danger of stalling.  Professional service companies (accountants, auditors, lawyers, bankers, etc) are delaying hiring decisions or cutting staff.  Retailers have been talking down the performance of their sector for months and would be popping champagne corks (apparently) if sales on a YoY basis are flat.

Overseas, I'm yet to be convinced that the worse of the Eurozone issues are behind us.  The downgrade of France bonds means that the pressure is on other countries in the Eurozone, especially Germany, to fund the bailout fund.  The Germans don't want to contribute, so this could blow up in the faces of Merkozy.  The IMF can't obtain funds from Europe or the US to support its activities, so will be looking to the BRICs for funds.  What pound of flesh will the BRICs extract to bail out western countries for their avarice?

The improvement in the US may not necessarily be long-lived, because the improvement in hiring numbers may have been partly or wholly due to seasonal factors, and the improvement in US retail sales may have been at the cost of savings, which will need to be built back up again.

The confrontation with Iran over its nuclear facilities has been kicked down the road six months to allow European countries to build up alternative oil supplies, but there's no doubt that it will become a major issue in the US presidential elections.

As always, I'll concentrate on high quality companies that can be had at a decent price.


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 January 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Accordingly it is all bull dust because they really haven't got a clue.



 And that's right. Probably just a board room table joke that has gone viral.


----------



## adamim1 (20 January 2012)

What has changed in the US? They still have a load of debt and borrow money to pay it off. Now they have this crisis with Iran... more debt.

Europe still has a lot of debt, no meeting has made that smaller.

Its complete speculation by the markets. They're expecting to get stimulus from the central banks.... running on hopes and dreams IMO.


----------



## young-gun (20 January 2012)

Wysiwyg said:


> And that's right. Probably just a board room table joke that has gone viral.




because your so highly valued bullish economists are so good at knowing whats going on...? i hear they got alot of people out of markets before the gfc, they obviously saw it coming...

enjoy the rally, it wont last

even if they do stimulate they CANNOT stop whats coming, they can prolong it, but not stop. the US is a perfect example. they all have their heads in the clouds with the belief everything is better. they are sitting on a stimulus bubble, that is sitting on the pre-existing debt bubble.


----------



## young-gun (20 January 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Marcus Padley was on "The Report" channel 10 last night. He basically said that all the gloom and doomer economists/analysts have their own agenda, being able to make recommendations to their clients on which they make their living.




even if it were true the guys at the other end of the table would be doing the same thing. im sure padley has his own agenda.

the bears - have accepted things arent going to be the same for a long time, and are preparing themselves to minimize losses and battern down the hatches.

the bulls - are still trying to make back what they lost at the beginning of the gfc, and wont accept that its not going to happen, and for some reason still look past the blatantly obvious, with a glimmer of hope that it is going to get better.


----------



## adamim1 (20 January 2012)

young-gun said:


> even if they do stimulate they CANNOT stop whats coming, they can prolong it, but not stop. the US is a perfect example. they all have their heads in the clouds with the belief everything is better. they are sitting on a stimulus bubble, that is sitting on the pre-existing debt bubble.




I don't believe that investors are that stupid, most people understand that things are grim. I think speculators are just thinking about making a quick buck if there is stimulus. Theres plenty of money to be made if a strong (but possibly short lived) rally takes place across all markets.


----------



## notting (20 January 2012)

adamim1 said:


> I don't believe that investors are that stupid, most people understand that things are grim. I think speculators are just thinking about making a quick buck if there is stimulus. Theres plenty of money to be made (but possibly short lived) rally takes place across all markets.




Plenty if the market goes up, down and even sideways!


----------



## young-gun (22 January 2012)

adamim1 said:


> I don't believe that investors are that stupid, most people understand that things are grim. I think speculators are just thinking about making a quick buck if there is stimulus. Theres plenty of money to be made if a strong (but possibly short lived) rally takes place across all markets.





agree to an extent, but think alot are more than happy to follow the headlines, forgetting the past quite quickly, and forgetting the driving factors behind it all.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (22 January 2012)

The Fed is pumping the market (the Dow) to give us the impression of a 'January effect'. Are we getting sucked along by the manipulation of just 30 or so stocks? Play it for what it is and go along for the ride until the fundamentals take over again.....blow off top approaching?




And they are already back to bubble territory for earnings, so can they 'surprise to the upside' any more from here to drive the market higher, in this climate??


----------



## Tysonboss1 (23 January 2012)

What evidence to you have that suggest the the federal reserve is "Pumping the Dow"


----------



## Tysonboss1 (23 January 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> What evidence to you have that suggest the the federal reserve is "Pumping the Dow"




None, OK.

Please keep your conspiricy theorys confined to the gold thread where the belong.

Cheers.


----------



## robz7777 (7 February 2012)

It has been quiet on this thread for a couple of weeks.. A sign that things are about to turn down again?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 February 2012)

Around 4400 showed resistance during the second half of last year. Swing coming and maybe the zone for it. Opinion only.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 February 2012)

Odd how the nasdaq and dow jones are fast approaching  2007 peak levels and our all ords is languising almost 1700 points or 25% below our 2007 peaks. The rise of the aud$ over the past 2 years must have really impacted on the level of foreign invesment in our market.

I'd like to think thet when the U.S crashes again we will be less effected, but I suspect the stampeding hoard won't stop to think about it.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Odd how the nasdaq and dow jones are fast approaching  2007 peak levels and our all ords is languising almost 1700 points or 25% below our 2007 peaks. The rise of the aud$ over the past 2 years must have really impacted on the level of foreign invesment in our market.




When i started work in my current job (involved in currencies) the AUD was about 85c against the USD. It went as low as 80 within 6 months. Now it is at 1.07 it is 25% higher than when i started.

For us personally that means that for any USD crosses we trade, we need to do 25% more volume just to break even with where we were 2 years ago.

Yes the markets fluctuate but the strength of the AUD has really hammered exporters and importers are not passing on their savings so the market is lopsided in that regard. In an era where central banks (Swiss, Japan) are directly intervening to maintain their currency in a certain band, the RBA seems to be the only bank favouring the 'free market'


----------



## notting (8 February 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> the RBA seems to be the only bank favouring the 'free market'



A truly free market would be an RBA interest rate of zero!


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2012)

notting said:


> A truly free market would be an RBA interest rate of zero!




Why? 

Central banks are supposed to keep inflation under control, so why should companies/people be able to borrow without worrying about having to pay back any interest?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (8 February 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Why?
> 
> Central banks are supposed to keep inflation under control, so why should companies/people be able to borrow without worrying about having to pay back any interest?




I spose the context was 'a free market' so a totally free market wouldn't have a central body dictating the cost of credit??? rather supply/demand, not that the RBA has any sway these days as the rumour mill has 'the big 4' putting out feelers for a 'go-it-alone' rate rise regardless?

Unlike the RBA, China's big 4 play an essential part in the economy - money printing.....creating inflation??

SHANGHAI (MarketWatch) -- China's "Big Four" state-run banks issued  around CNY320 billion (US$50.7 billion) combined in new yuan loans in  January, the state-run China Securities Journal reported Wednesday,  without citing sources. 

     Based on the numbers of the "Big Four" banks, China's banking sector may  have extended CNY800 billion in new yuan loans last month, the report  said.                              

The Big Four banks include Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. , Industrial  & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. , Bank of China Ltd.  and China  Construction Bank Corp. .                              

The new yuan loans in January 2011 stood at CNY1.04 trillion, official data showed.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 February 2012)

notting said:


> A truly free market would be an RBA interest rate of zero!




I truly free market would be one without central banks.


----------



## Julia (8 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter, how about outlining your perfect society and how it would work?
Perhaps start a thread on this so as not to divert the ASX is tanking thread.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 February 2012)

Julia said:


> Starcraftmazter, how about outlining your perfect society and how it would work?
> Perhaps start a thread on this so as not to divert the ASX is tanking thread.




No need, just refer to USA before the central banking cartel infiltrated it.


----------



## Julia (9 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> No need, just refer to USA before the central banking cartel infiltrated it.



 What a cop out.
Let's pretend I have no understanding of anything that has happened in the USA.

I've simply asked you to provide us with an outline of your ideal society.  Given the ongoing and multiple criticisms you have of the status quo, you should relish the opportunity and be happy to enlighten us.

You could cover e.g. incomes, taxation, welfare, healthcare just for a start.


----------



## Muschu (9 February 2012)

Julia said:


> What a cop out.
> Let's pretend I have no understanding of anything that has happened in the USA.
> 
> I've simply asked you to provide us with an outline of your ideal society.  Given the ongoing and multiple criticisms you have of the status quo, you should relish the opportunity and be happy to enlighten us.
> ...




Cripes - Really sounds like a book is needed in response Julia.  Certainly a new thread if anyone wants to pursue this discussion.


----------



## Julia (9 February 2012)

Muschu said:


> Cripes - Really sounds like a book is needed in response Julia.



No, I don't think so, Rick.   Starcraftmazter is adept at making succinct comments.
It should be simple for him.



> Certainly a new thread if anyone wants to pursue this discussion.




Yes.  I have already suggested he might like to start a thread on the subject.

You may like to contribute yourself?


----------



## Muschu (10 February 2012)

Julia said:


> No, I don't think so, Rick.   Starcraftmazter is adept at making succinct comments.
> It should be simple for him.
> 
> 
> ...




No thanks Julia.  Topic too broad for me on a stocks forum.  

_"incomes, taxation, welfare, healthcare just for a start."_ 

But if you, Star and others want to go with this -- then it will happen.  Not for me tho.  I tune into this thread for the topic.


----------



## Julia (10 February 2012)

Muschu said:


> Not for me tho.  I tune into this thread for the topic.



I am duly chastised, Rick.  My apologies for the diversion.


----------



## Muschu (10 February 2012)

Julia said:


> I am duly chastised, Rick.  My apologies for the diversion.




Not chastising at all Julia.  It's just that, with the occasional exception, I choose not to participate in ASF conversations on "broad" topics and tend not to read them unless I have some particular interest [as in the "depression" discussion for example].

Best wishes

Rick


----------



## nulla nulla (11 February 2012)

It would appear that the world markets doubt the ability of the greek parliament to pass the needed legislation this week-end and have cashed out their positions anticipating a retrace from present levels.

Even though our all ords had a slight retrace on Friday, and we are disproportionately lower in comparison to the rest of the world markets, we will probably drop again on Monday if there is no news of the greek legislation being passed over the weekend.

There are some good buying oportunities for the brave at the moment. Problem is, they are likely to get even better in the short term.


----------



## Julia (11 February 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> It would appear that the world markets doubt the ability of the greek parliament to pass the needed legislation this week-end



With very good reason.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (12 February 2012)

Julia said:


> What a cop out.
> Let's pretend I have no understanding of anything that has happened in the USA.




Let's pretend you don't want an answer then. Oh wait, that seems to be the case, as mine addresses all of these;



Julia said:


> You could cover e.g. incomes, taxation, welfare, healthcare just for a start.




It's not rocket science, why not simply have a free market with minimum regulation and  a competent government with minimal intervention? USA before the central banking cartel took over is a prime example of what that is like. Don't know what else you want.



nulla nulla said:


> It would appear that the world markets doubt the ability of the greek parliament to pass the needed legislation this week-end and have cashed out their positions anticipating a retrace from present levels.




I hope it's that, because it's silliness. It is obvious the deal will get passed. The vote is scheduled for this Sunday, so by the time the ASX opens hopefully it will be a done deal.

The real problem is that now the EU are saying that even this deal is not enough, and they want more cuts due to deficit projection blowouts of several hundred million euro. Sort of like a Donkey being lead with a carrot.



nulla nulla said:


> Even though our all ords had a slight retrace on Friday, and we are disproportionately lower in comparison to the rest of the world markets, we will probably drop again on Monday if there is no news of the greek legislation being passed over the weekend.




I would imagine that is because of bad Aussie and Chinese data.

The main thing is to sell/short sell before the banks report earnings and projections of earnings. Right now they are losing money on every new mortgage they write.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 February 2012)

Julia said:


> Starcraftmazter, how about outlining your perfect society and how it would work?
> Perhaps start a thread on this so as not to divert the ASX is tanking thread.






Starcraftmazter said:


> No need, just refer to USA before the central banking cartel infiltrated it.






Starcraftmazter said:


> It's not rocket science, why not simply have a free market with minimum regulation and  a competent government with minimal intervention? USA before the central banking cartel took over is a prime example of what that is like. Don't know what else you want.



You should stick with internet forum posting, to remain a legend.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (13 February 2012)

Watching the Greek parliament live, they just approved the austerity bill.

Just as expected


----------



## sinner (13 February 2012)

sinner said:


> *I am personally bullish for 2012 and will look for signs of healthy breadth before entering in January*.
> *
> However I've been watching the AUD money market spreads*, (i.e. Dec 3M AUDLIBOR vs Jan 3M AUDLIBOR vs Feb 3M AUDLIBOR vs March 3M AUDLIBOR) and clearly something has been stinking up Aussie markets since June/July 2011.




Well, it's almost two months since I made the above post and I haven't been game to enter longs in the Aussie equity markets, except a small tactical allocation into the SLF ETF. 

Meanwhile US markets have rallied impressively, even after accounting for an AUD hedge (although I do note ASX Utilities took part in the global utilities rally). Didn't participate, but it was interesting to see.

The AUD LIBOR curve and versus front month AUD Gov money is still looking sickly. To me this explains the disparity in performance. Credit isn't flowing as loosely here at home compared to the rest of the first world.

Until the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY start to lose some of their steam or global markets adjust to a new high AUD (/low USD/low JPY) then I'd rather stay in "cash" or execute an options strategy like a bullish calendar spread to lower the costs of being bullish.


----------



## Tyler Durden (13 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Watching the Greek parliament live, they just approved the austerity bill.
> 
> Just as expected




But at what cost I wonder...


----------



## Klogg (13 February 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> But at what cost I wonder...




Yeah... Having relatives in Greece, it worries me that the country will be drowning in poverty...

They really do need their own currency IMO.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (13 February 2012)

I have a feeling we'll see a hell of a lot of volatility this week. Lots of data from home, the US and Europe. Reporting seasons here and in the US as well. Not to mention the whole Greece thing and the vote on Wednesday.

It's going to be all up and down.




Tyler Durden said:


> But at what cost I wonder...




With 100,000 protesters setting fire to buildings, and it being one hour past midnight over there, I was honestly wondering whether the MPs planned to sleep in the parliament building that night 

I would be extremely interested to know if they did and if not then how the hell they managed to get home, and not get it set on fire!


----------



## Chasero (16 February 2012)

Klogg said:


> Yeah... Having relatives in Greece, it worries me that the country will be drowning in poverty...
> 
> They really do need their own currency IMO.




I wonder what the chances of a default are now.

Everyone last october was saying it was 99% definite.

Now its end of feb and funds are due.. investors are nervous


----------



## sinner (17 February 2012)

Chasero said:


> I wonder what the chances of a default are now.




LondonBanker is starting to think 'pretty low'.
http://londonbanker.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/greece-cutting-out-middle-man.html


> Official creditors will receive full payment. Private creditors will receive the new discounted rates agreed with the IIF for restructured debt. I am not sure what private creditors who reject the IIF proposal might receive, but it will not much matter as ISDA will find there is no credit event regardless.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (17 February 2012)

Chasero said:


> investors are nervous




Are they?

What percentage of investors have you surveyed to come to that asumption.


----------



## Chasero (17 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Are they?
> 
> What percentage of investors have you surveyed to come to that asumption.




It's an observation based on yesterday's trade.

i.e. asx broke key support levels again.

Today's action shows lack of interest in share market as well.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 February 2012)

More like everyone is frustrated our market has underperformed so horribly and nobody knows what the **** is going on with Greece.


----------



## notting (17 February 2012)

What's going on with Greece?
Well, everyone knows they are bankrupt. 
However, no one has wanted to take that hit on their balance sheets till now, especially the Spanish, Italian and French banks who have all been stretched for capital as it was. 

Recent moves like the ECB allowing unlimited 1% credit lending is supposed to sure up these lenders and show to Greece that it's leverage aint as great as it might have first thought it was and that they should at least try to get the place in order rather than just try to work with the threat of destroying European institutional balance sheets.
There seemed to have been some kind of Greek political capitulation over the last couple of days as even their *unacceptable austerity measures* that they were so *belligerently,pretending to be inacting*, where given the thumbs down by the rest and for the first time they actually looked into the depths of the abyss!! - "Sh*t, they are actually in a position to take on the default and are not going to give us the money!!" 
Floundering around with white gills and no where to turn, I don't know exactly what happened in the background but they must have volunteered something reassuring that previously had not been forth coming and the ECB offered a bit of direct support. 

"Hey Greece never defaulted, so no ones going to appear to default", thought the astute traders. Over night markets all rallied with the same low volumes that have been apparent for the last six weeks.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> More like everyone is frustrated our market has underperformed so horribly and nobody knows what the **** is going on with Greece.




My contacts tell me that Greece is to be sold to the Townsville City Council and that a prominent former Townsville identity with skin in both places, is to broker the deal.

This should cause a reversal in the ASX when it next opens.

gg


----------



## stacks (17 February 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My contacts tell me that Greece is to be sold to the Townsville City Council and that a prominent former Townsville identity with skin in both places, is to broker the deal.
> 
> This should cause a reversal in the ASX when it next opens.
> 
> gg




Ha ha, that must be true given the latest rates notices. They must be using our money for something!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (18 February 2012)

Chasero said:


> It's an observation based on yesterday's trade.
> 
> i.e. asx broke key support levels again.
> 
> Today's action shows lack of interest in share market as well.




I can't see how you can draw any accurate picture of investors attitudes from the daily jirations of the market, you are not partaking in any analysis of merit, but simple trying to guess what hundreds of thousands of other people are thinking.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (18 February 2012)

The investor is the man with patience and the courage of his convictions, who would buy when the harried or disheartened speculator was selling. If an investor is now to hold back until the market itself encourages him, how will he distinguish himself from the speculator, and wherein will he deserve any better than the ordinary speculators fate?


----------



## wayneL (18 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I can't see how you can draw any accurate picture of investors attitudes from the daily gyrations of the market, you are not partaking in any analysis of merit, but simple trying to guess what hundreds of thousands of other people are thinking.






Tysonboss1 said:


> The investor is the man with patience and the courage of his convictions, who would buy when the harried or disheartened speculator was selling. If an investor is now to hold back until the market itself encourages him, how will he distinguish himself from the speculator, and wherein will he deserve any better than the ordinary speculators fate?




Lordy Lordy Tyson!

You castigate Chasero for pigeonholing "investors" attitudes and in the same breath pigeonhole "speculators" who might be selling as harried and disheartened... and then go on to make assumptions on what a speculator's fate might be.

What the hell? Did you take communion from the Church of Latter Day Buffet Acolytes today or something?

How do you know "who" is selling what an investor bought? 
Another investors rotating assets?
An investor cashing up for another purpose?
Day traders?
Swing traders?
Short sellers?
Delta hedgers?
etc etc etc?

Once more, how do you know the investor is: 
(a)a man
(b)has patience
(c)has courage and 
(d)has convictions?

It would generally be wise to leave aside generalizations when bagging someone for a generalization. 

Sheesh!


----------



## nulla nulla (18 February 2012)

Wow!  This thread is really oscilating now away from the topic. Perhaps all the "perps" could take a break and let the general discussion come back to the speculation of: *The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread*.

The ASX took a pounding this week. Mining and Finance were slapped arround. Even the property sector took a hit. Much of it can be linked to the negative sentiment generated when "Analyst expectations" were not met. Some bigger than average volumes were traded as "holders" sold down. There are further reports due out in the coming weeks and I expect the volitility will continue.

I would not be surprised to see the ASX the 4200 level.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (18 February 2012)

wayneL said:


> You castigate Chasero for pigeonholing "investors" attitudes and in the same breath pigeonhole "speculators" who might be selling as harried and disheartened... and then go on to make assumptions on what a speculator's fate might be.
> 
> What the hell? Did you take communion from the Church of Latter Day Buffet Acolytes today or something?
> 
> ...




That paragraph was separate to my comments to chaseo, It is a paragraph from Benjamin grahams 1940 security analysis, I was just re reading it last night and thought it related to many earlier comments where people state they are waiting for the market to give them signs to enter.



> How do you know "who" is selling what an investor bought?
> Another investors rotating assets?
> An investor cashing up for another purpose?
> Day traders?
> ...




The truth is nobody knows who is selling and who is buying, But I believe in the paragraph Graham is trying to get the point across that the investor should be looking at buying when the market is very depressed and it appears people are fleeing rather than when the Bull market is being flooded with speculative buy orders.



> Once more, how do you know the investor is:
> (a)a man
> (b)has patience
> (c)has courage and
> (d)has convictions?




a, an investor is not likly to be a dog or a cat

and, Points B, C, D are points I believe (and Graham believed) that the best investors have, and others should aspire to, A bit like soldierly qualities, Not all Australian soldiers have "Courage, Integrity and mateship" But it is certainly widely accepted that those qualities make better soldiers and should be aspired to.


----------



## wayneL (18 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> a, an investor is not likly to be a dog or a cat




An investor can't be a woman


----------



## notting (18 February 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Wow!  This thread is really oscilating now away from the topic. Perhaps all the "perps" could take a break and let the general discussion come back to the speculation of: *The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread*.
> 
> The ASX took a pounding this week.
> 
> I would not be surprised to see the ASX the 4200 level.




Here's some juice to get back to it

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/16/news/economy/china_chanos/index.htm?iid=EAL /


----------



## Starcraftmazter (18 February 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Even the property sector took a hit.




Well this is the least surprising thing amidst a housing market collapse.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (18 February 2012)

wayneL said:


> An investor can't be a woman




The word Man is not exclusively used to distingish sex.

the Webster dictionary defines "Man" as (1) : an individual human. b: the individual who can fulfill or who has been chosen to fulfill one's requirements <she's your man>

A human regardless of sex or age; a person.

In fact the word Woman, comes from "Womb man". So a Woman is just a Man with a womb.

Man is also a term widely used to describe - a bipedal primate mammal (Homo sapiens) that is anatomically related to the great apes but distinguished especially by notable development of the brain with a resultant capacity for articulate speech and abstract reasoning, is usually considered to form a variable number of freely interbreeding races, and is the sole living representative of the hominid family; broadly: any living or extinct hominid


----------



## wayneL (18 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> The word Man is not exclusively used to distingish sex.
> 
> the Webster dictionary defines "Man" as (1) : an individual human. b: the individual who can fulfill or who has been chosen to fulfill one's requirements <she's your man>
> 
> ...




Context is everything Tyson. Certainly the above is true in the correct context, but in the modern PC world, one must be careful regarding gender specificity... 

...Lest we be taken away and "re-educated" by the thought police.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Well this is the least surprising thing amidst a housing market collapse.




I should have qualified "Property Sector" as "Australian REIT's" as distinct from Domestic Real Estate. 

Thank you


----------



## So_Cynical (19 February 2012)

For long only punters its been a nightmare, i have like 7 open trades and have added to 5 of them...8 months for 1 closed trade bring on the rally FFS.


----------



## Julia (19 February 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> For long only punters its been a nightmare, i have like 7 open trades and have added to 5 of them...8 months for 1 closed trade bring on the rally FFS.



 One of the experts on Inside Business this morning predicted "about a couple of weeks to go of this *rally*."


----------



## lenny (19 February 2012)

With the Dji up 23% since the October 11 low satisfies the definition of the US being in a bull market with a move of >+20%.


----------



## notting (19 February 2012)

Julia said:


> One of the experts on Inside Business this morning predicted "about a couple of weeks to go of this *rally*."




It's generally pretty quick when they all start chiming that tune.
The smart money is already moving out, it doesn't wait around for the top to be established you can't profit from looking in the revision mirror.  

Pity we stayed down under.

Facebook may be the titroglycerine tablet dropped in the tank!! 
White swans are hader to spot than black ones!


----------



## Starcraftmazter (19 February 2012)

lenny said:


> With the Dji up 23% since the October 11 low satisfies the definition of the US being in a bull market with a move of >+20%.




Bear market rally pal. We have been in a secular bear market for a very long time, and I highly doubt we will ever get another bull market. Or at least until new forms of energy are invented to replace oil, coal and nuclear.


----------



## lenny (19 February 2012)

SCM,

So what's your definition for a Bull/Bear market then?

The standard definition I can find is a move/trend of 20% in the either direction?.


----------



## Ves (19 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> We have been in a secular bear market for a very long time, and I highly doubt we will ever get another bull market.



 Sorry - but why bother wasting your life researching and posting about shares, then? Seems counter-productive. I am sure you can find better things to do. You under-estimate the power of greed if you believe that another bull market is a low likelyhood of ever happening.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (19 February 2012)

lenny said:


> So what's your definition for a Bull/Bear market then?




If the asx200 passes circa year 2000 heighs on inflated adjusted terms, then I would consider calling a new bull market.



Ves said:


> Sorry - but why bother wasting your life researching and posting about shares, then? Seems counter-productive. I am sure you can find better things to do.




Unfortunately there is no other way to grow one's wealth, let alone maintain it.



Ves said:


> You under-estimate the power of greed if you believe that another bull market is a low likelyhood of ever happening.




You over-estimate the resources provided by the spherical planet we live on (refer to my sig).


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Bear market rally pal. We have been in a secular bear market for a very long time, and I highly doubt we will ever get another bull market. Or at least until new forms of energy are invented to replace oil, coal and nuclear.




Thats an opinion I find a bit weird in todays energy climate. I know alot of people are glass half empty when it comes to future energy, but heres a few things that are in our favour.

1, North America is closer to oil independence than it has been since the 60's, 

2, Global Natural gas reserves has gone through the roof, and Natural gas has the ability to offset alot of oil usage.

3, For the fiirst time new nuclear plants are being approved in the US and many more around the world.

4, Vechicles and equipment are becoming more and more efficent, and switching to alternative sources of energy.

5, Renewable energy is just at the beginning of it's development cycle, and this alone will stimulate the economy.

6, Several future techs are under development that should be able to be deployed in about 20 years that will seriously alter the cost of energy.

For now, we are doing OK as far as energy is concerned, and in the future after a few little bumps energy will be plentiful and cheaper than it is today.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> If the asx200 passes circa year 2000 heighs on inflated adjusted terms, then I would consider calling a new bull market.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1, it's only got to get to 4400 to be equal to the asx200 2000 level, and that was a level inflated by the tech boom.

2, Heaps of ways to both grow and maintain your wealth are available to investors in todays market, 

3, you under estimate humans abilty to adapt and over come.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> at least until new forms of energy are invented to replace oil, coal and nuclear.




Why do we want to replace nuclear, It's pretty much the best alternative to fossil fuels we have. and with a few adjustments to the way we apply it, it will become an infinate supply, 

He is just one of the future possible ideas that will create unlimited cheap energy in the future.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, North America is closer to oil independence than it has been since the 60's,




You mean gas right? It is nowhere near oil independence. If you are referring to shale than consider several things;

 - Shale oil reserves have been drastically overestimated
 - It is an environmentally catastrophic source of oil
 - For every one barrel of oil used to convert shale to oil, you will get between 1 and 2 barrels back. A typical oilfield (doesn't have to be large) will give you back 100 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel of energy invested into it.

Shale oil is a pipedream.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, Global Natural gas reserves has gone through the roof, and Natural gas has the ability to offset alot of oil usage.




Not really. And fracking is also a very environmentally dangerous process - one which also destroys mass quantities of farmland and aquifers used by farmland.

It is bound to be either banned or severely restricted in the near future.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, For the fiirst time new nuclear plants are being approved in the US and many more around the world.




Those are all uranium nuclear power plants. Uranium nuclear is very dangerous - but even worse, uranium - that is, high grade uranium is one of the rarest substances on Earth. Our current uranium fission technology also sucks, and we can't even extract 1% of energy from uranium.

To be building uranium power plants at a time when uranium is running out is pure insanity and will not solve anything.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 4, Vechicles and equipment are becoming more and more efficent, and switching to alternative sources of energy.




There is one economic principle you do not seem to understand. As things become more efficient, they are used more - overall energy consumption usually always goes up. This principle allies everywhere in economics and it is applicable to everything. History has proved it true time and time again.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 5, Renewable energy is just at the beginning of it's development cycle, and this alone will stimulate the economy.




How will it do that when China is undercutting everyone as usual? I am all for renewable - but they are not magic. It would take massive amounts of investment and above all political will to make it work. This will never happen in Australia or the US, or most places. EU is the only place that is close to making the correct level of commitment, and unfortunately right now it's in no shape to do more.

No, this is something that should have been done 30 years ago, now it is too late.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 6, Several future techs are under development that should be able to be deployed in about 20 years that will seriously alter the cost of energy.




Such as? The governments will always steal and hide it just as they always have. Nikola Tesla was probably the first human to invent a way to harness free energy 70 years ago, and yet today it still "doesn't exist". There will never be cheap, plentiful energy - because that would mean the rich bastards who run the world can't make much money off it.





Tysonboss1 said:


> For now, we are doing OK as far as energy is concerned, and in the future after a few little bumps energy will be plentiful and cheaper than it is today.




I fail to see how we are doing okey, the price of oil is dragging the world into recession and back every few years, our economic cycles are becoming sporadic, there is widespread social unrest in many poorer parts of the world where people cannot meet the rising costs of energy.

This is not OK at all.




Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, it's only got to get to 4400 to be equal to the asx200 2000 level, and that was a level inflated by the tech boom.




I said inflation adjusted. Yr 2008 was also inflated by the credit bubble - esp the housing and commodity bubbles. They are still here today in large. Where do you think it will go as they collapse?



Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, Heaps of ways to both grow and maintain your wealth are available to investors in todays market,




I didn't say there aren't, I said there aren't outside of markets.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 3, you under estimate humans abilty to adapt and over come.




Define "adapt"? The immense social complexity we have is only a result of surplus energy. We are are very quickly running out of surplus energy. The only logical conclusion is the level of social complexity will significantly drop. This has nothing to do with adapting.



Tysonboss1 said:


> Why do we want to replace nuclear, It's pretty much the best alternative to fossil fuels we have. and with a few adjustments to the way we apply it, it will become an infinate supply,




Because all current nuclear technology is based on uranium fission. Like I have already said - uranium is *extremely scare*. The yields on uranium mines have dropped significantly since it was discovered. High grade uranium used in power plants is even more rare. Uranium is simply not feasible for the future.

This is apart from the fact that it is inherently extremely dangerous (as Fukushima proves) and there is no viable means of storing nuclear waste for as long as it is radioactive. Most nuclear reactors in the US have lots and lots of spent nuclear rods stored at the plants. This alone is very hazardous.

What the world should be doing is researching into *thorium* nuclear fission. It is self-controlling and nothing can ever go wrong, produces much less hazardous waste which is radioactive for much longer.

Most importantly, there is enough thorium fuel to last for a very very long time.

Unfortunately, the same thing is happening as it has to every single other energy - private companies have massively lobbied governments not to pursue it. In fact the only country that is pursuing it, is China. Just another thing to buy from them...if they sell it to us and we agree to buy it...



Tysonboss1 said:


> He is just one of the future possible ideas that will create unlimited cheap energy in the future.





I hear uranium, I am instantly sceptical. Everything they are doing is extremely unnecessary - thorium nuclear is a proven technology which is far more mature, someone simply needs to make it work and design the big reactors that would generate massive enough amounts of energy. Instead they are pissing away time and money on a scare fuel which is being depleted as we speak. In fact he said 40 years? There will be virtually no uranium of a high enough grade left in the world in 40 years. Just another way for big corporations to hide the truly good sources of energy and throw bull**** in our faces.

Bill Gates is part of the 1% last time I checked isn't he?


But even that, that does not address the issue of how we are going to power cars, trucks, ships and planes. Not to mention where we get the oil and phosphorous necessary for fertilisers.

Buddy, the amount of crap the world is in is beyond belief.

Feel free...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnXZzx9pAmQ


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I said inflation adjusted. Yr 2008 was also inflated by the credit bubble - esp the housing and commodity bubbles. They are still here today in large. Where do you think it will go as they collapse?
> 
> 
> 
> [




I disaggree with you on pretty much all of your energy points, so we will have to aggree to disaggree.

I do think you are in danger of crippling your financel position through being an over the top pessimist.

In regards to the above point,

In inflation adjusted terms feb 2000 asx 200 is worth 4400, it's only just under that level now, and it is at a low point, asx 200 in 2000 had a degree of bubblyness from the tech boom, so the two are no really comparible,

Still if you had put your entire networth into the asx 200 in 2000, you would have protected from inflation, while also earning a sound dividend return, doesn't seem like a disaster investment to me.

Secondly, waiting until an established bull market is happening is a bit crazy to me, It gives the impression that you would buy because things have gone up ( when they are probably over priced and due for a correction) ans sell when things have dropped ( just when they are trading at relatively safe levels where price to assets and earning power is at very attractive levels)


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Sorry, One final point on energy.

Uranium is not scarce, There are tonnes of it stored all round the world in cooling ponds and dry casking.

The terra power plant bill is backing will use the waste from conventional plants as it burns the 99% unranium content the traditional plants leave behind.

Also, Uranium can be filtered out of sea water for $150 per pound, which they are already doing on a small scale in japan, 

So when you factor in the uranium still in the ground as reserves + the undiscovered sources + the waste already above ground + the stuff we can get from sea water It will last longer than the life of the sun. It is truely infinent source.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> In inflation adjusted terms feb 2000 asx 200 is worth 4400, it's only just under that level now, and it is at a low point, asx 200 in 2000 had a degree of bubblyness from the tech boom, so the to are no really comparible,




I actually cannot find an inflation adjusted graph for the asx200 for the life of me, so you may well be correct. Perhaps I meant the sp500 instead (which although is different from our market, there is an obvious and strong correlation).





In terms of bubbllyness as you put it, as I said....our market was again in a bubble (they all were) before the GFC, and to be honest they still are.



Tysonboss1 said:


> Still if you had put you entire networth into the asx 200 in 2000, you would have protected from inflation, while also earning a sound dividend return, doesn't seem like a disaster investment to me.




Sure, but that was the past - so it is no longer relevant.



Tysonboss1 said:


> Secondly, waiting until an extablished bull market is happening is a bit crazy to me, It gives the impression that you would buy because things have gone up ( when they are probably over priced and due for a correction) ans sell when things have dropped ( just when they are trading at relatively safe levels where price to assets and earning power is at very attractive levels)




I am not waiting for any sort of market, I trade very short term (usually days) because I do not believe we will ever have another bull market, so it is pointless to try and long-term invest.



Tysonboss1 said:


> Uranium is not scarce, There are tonnes of it stored all round the world in cooling ponds and dry casking.




I would encourage you to watch the Crash Course from the video I linked in my longer post above. The whole thing is only less than an hour. 



Tysonboss1 said:


> The terra power plant bill is backing will use the waste from conventional plants as it burns the 99% unranium content the traditional plants leave behind.




Like I said, that is just a distraction. It is nothing more than a pointless waste of time. In 40 years when they say it will be done, there will not be much of a civilization left.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> 1, I actually cannot find an inflation adjusted graph for the asx200 for the life of me, so you may well be correct. Perhaps I meant the sp500 instead (which although is different from our market, there is an obvious and strong correlation).
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1, in feb 2000 the asx 2000 was about 3000, it's not overly hard to do the math.

2, yes they were in a bubble, hence the crash. now they are much lower, offcourse it is safer to buy a company at 10 times earnings than it is to buy that same company at 22 times earnings.

3, yes it was the past, back then most of the leading companies in the asx200 were trading at about 15 - 20 times earnings, now they are trading at 10 - 15 times earnings, So deploying money now would [probably have a better result than deploying in 2000.

4, well I don't believe buying sound businesses at rational prices is ever pointless, and I also don't believe human nature has changed suffiently enough to make a bull market impossible.

5, I have watched it a few times, the points he makes I completely understand, But after a lot of thought and study I have come to some slightly diferent conclusions.

6, well if you trully believe that then you have basically given up, I disaggree 100%. I believe in 40 years we will be living on balance alot better, More goods and services will be generated, better heath care, etc etc, The future is bright kin my opinion.

I am not saying there will not be speed bumps, but thats all there will be speed bumps.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> 1, in feb 2000 the asx 2000 was about 3000, it's not overly hard to do the math.
> 
> 2, yes they were in a bubble, hence the crash. now they are much lower, offcourse it is safer to buy a company at 10 times earnings than it is to buy that same company at 22 times earnings.
> 
> ...




First of all, the ASX8 (4 biggest banks + 4 biggest miners) are responsible for 90% of the profit growth on the ASX200 and hence other companies are not even worthy of mention if you want to talk about bull and bear markets.

Second of all, what makes you think that companies are cheap at a certain amount of earnings estimates? What makes you think they will not go lower? With the retirement of baby boomers and massive amounts of capital outflow from our stock market, what makes you think prices will follow historic averages for certain earnings amounts?

Further, what makes you think earnings will not fall? How will miners make money once the commodities bubble bursts, and how will banks make money once the housing bubble bursts?

I see the asx tanking to 3000, 2000 and 1000. There will be no earnings growth, only contraction.




Tysonboss1 said:


> 5, I have watched it a few times, the points he makes I completely understand, But after a lot of thought and study I have come to some slightly diferent conclusions.
> 
> 6, well if you trully believe that then you have basically given up, I disaggree 100%. I believe in 40 years we will be living on balance alot better, More goods and services will be generated, better heath care, etc etc, The future is bright kin my opinion.




In 40 years we will run out of oil, coal, aluminium, titanium, prosperous, etc. At the same time, there will be 3 billion more humans on the planet and a far more unpredictable climate.

I just can not agree. At the crux of it all are worldwide corrupt governments, all controlled by the central banking cartel. It is not at all in their interests to improve yours or anyone else's life. Even if it was, it is not possible. The only thing that is in store for us is poverty, misery, mass starvation as a remote few live ever more luxurious lives printing money for themselves and draining everyone who does actual work.


----------



## Timmy (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I just can not agree. At the crux of it all are worldwide corrupt governments, all controlled by the central banking cartel. It is not at all in their interests to improve yours or anyone else's life. Even if it was, it is not possible. The only thing that is in store for us is poverty, misery, mass starvation as a remote few live ever more luxurious lives printing money for themselves and draining everyone who does actual work.




There is a bull market in tinfoil hats.


----------



## Timmy (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> *In 40 years we will run out of *oil, coal, aluminium, titanium, *prosperous*, etc.




I <heart> typos.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Timmy said:


> There is a bull market in tinfoil hats.




Sorry buddy, it's just a fact of life - he who prints money out of nothing has all the power.


----------



## tinhat (20 February 2012)

You can search for historic CPI data here:

http://www.rateinflation.com/consumer-price-index/australia-historical-cpi.php?form=auscpi

The current base year for the Australian CPI is 1989-90. So the calculations below will take the value of the All Ords (XAO) back to 1989/90 values). I've only got historical All Ords data available. 

The All Ords peaked in Feb 2002 so I'll use that peak, which was 3443.9. Using the previous quarter CPI from Dec-01 (135.4) the adjusted value is 2543.500739. Fast forward to the close of the All Ords last Friday (which is almost exactly ten years on) at 4257.2 CPI adjusted using the Dec-11 CPI of 179.4 this comes out at 2373.021182

The difference is 170.48 (rounded) which works out to -6.7% of the Feb-02 high. So we can say that in real terms the All Ords has fallen 6.7% from its high of Feb-02 to last Friday.

I don't have data for the accumulated all ords but it would be interesting to work out the real return on the accumulated all ords.


----------



## skyQuake (20 February 2012)

tinhat said:


> You can search for historic CPI data here:
> 
> http://www.rateinflation.com/consumer-price-index/australia-historical-cpi.php?form=auscpi
> 
> ...




22nd Feb 2002 - XJO Accumulation 17268.9
17th Feb 2012 - XJO Accumulation 31970.9

85.1% over 10 years = 6.35% p.a. compounding

Certainly beat CPI growth.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> 1, Second of all, what makes you think that companies are cheap at a certain amount of earnings estimates?
> 
> 2, What makes you think they will not go lower?
> 
> ...




1, If I can buy a range of quality companies at 8 times earnings and I believe in aggrigate the earnings will keep pace with inflation then I can see this as being a good investment, offcourse over time the price will flucuate but most likly the prices will rise to a point that it is higher than 8 times earnings, If somthing is producing an inflation hedged return of 12.5% I see that a good thing.

2, They may, But I am of the opinion that if the economy just keeps ticking along the companies I own will continue earning sound returns and eventually the prices of the companies on the market will better reflect a higher earnings multiple.

3, Hell if they don't all the better, I don't personally see the baby boomer arguement being as powerful as sum think, But if it were and prices dropped to 5 or 2 times earnings that would be a wonderful thing, Offcourse as an investor I prefer lower prices.

4, earning may fall, hence why you should buy with a margin of safty, Miners and banks will contiune to be profitable, if the mining boom falters the miners may see a short set back and their return on equity drop from 40% back to say 15% still a profiable business to own.

5, And what do you base that on, 

6, we didn't stop lighting our homes when whale oil became scarce, If you believe that you are basically saying our ability to innovate, recycle and find new sources has been pushed to it's full extent, I disaggree. 

7, you have an entirely wrong view of the economy, the economy is not a cake where if I get rich you automatically have a smaller slice, It is more like candles where we use our own candle to light other peoples candles, with all the various businesses and people working generating products and services that get distributed and we are all better off, we will all get richer together of course some are richer than others, but on balance an average person today lives better than a king 500 years ago


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

tinhat said:


> The All Ords peaked in Feb 2002 so I'll use that peak, which was 3443.9.




There is somthing fundamentally wrong with using the peak,

The peak is going to be the point when the market is at it's most expensive, The only thing you proove in doing so it that buying businesses at over priced levels results in a poor to medocre result from your investing.

If anything you shoulds compare apples with apples, and compare peaks with peaks and lows with lows.

If you can understand that the bull and bear market cycles regularly take share prices to levels well above and well below the amount a rational private buyer would pay for the entire businesses, you will understand that the peaks are just periods where prices have travelled far above a rational price and the ensuing crash is a healthy thing, and any rally after the crash that takes prices back to fair value is like wise healthy


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> if the mining boom falters the miners may see a short set back and their return on equity drop from 40% back to say 15% still a profiable business to own.




But the value of your initial investment will go down dramatically?



Tysonboss1 said:


> 5, And what do you base that on,




Reserves and usage?



Tysonboss1 said:


> 6, we didn't stop lighting our homes when whale oil became scarce, If you believe that you are basically saying our ability to innovate, recycle and find new sources has been pushed to it's full extent, I disaggree.




I am not saying that - what I am saying, is that the financial powers that be will prevent any such innovation from occurring because it is not in their interests.

You only have to observe the world now, nobody in power is doing anything about any of these problems - they aren't even talking about it. It's all growth growth growth.

There need to be put severe limits on reproduction and immigration just about outright banned, and nations which fail to comply need to be embargoed by the rest for starters. None of this is happening, we are just speeding faster and faster towards a brick wall.



Tysonboss1 said:


> 7, you have an entirely wrong view of the economy, the economy is not a cake where if I get rich you automatically have a smaller slice, It is more like candles where we use our own candle to light other peoples candles, with all the various businesses and people working generating products and services that get distributed and we are all better off, we will all get richer together of course some are richer than others, but on balance an average person today lives better than a king 500 years ago




Last time I checked kings didn't have to slave away their entire life to pay interest on money that was created out of nothing for a crappy property on a tiny block of land.


----------



## tinhat (20 February 2012)

skyQuake said:


> 22nd Feb 2002 - XJO Accumulation 17268.9
> 17th Feb 2012 - XJO Accumulation 31970.9
> 
> 85.1% over 10 years = 6.35% p.a. compounding
> ...




I calculate a real return of  39.7% based on your figures.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> 1, But the value of your initial investment will go down dramatically?
> 
> 
> 2, Last time I checked kings didn't have to slave away their entire life to pay interest on money that was created out of nothing for a crappy property on a tiny block of land.




1, yes it would if there is an immediate and sharp down turn in commodity prices, offcourse the company would be less profitable and indeed worth less, but every day they contiune selling ship loads at current high prices counts and improves their balance sheet and net worth

2, No, but most of them died in there 40's, and lived without the comforts we take for granted, ie, running water, air conditioning, elctricity, telecomunitcations, air travel etc etc etc.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> 2, No, but most of them died in there 40's, and lived without the comforts we take for granted, ie, running water, air conditioning, elctricity, telecomunitcations, air travel etc etc etc.




Yes - but living standards are very relative. You should not compare them across time, but rather to the richest people alive _today_.


----------



## tinhat (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> There is somthing fundamentally wrong with using the peak,
> 
> The peak is going to be the point when the market is at it's most expensive, The only thing you proove in doing so it that buying businesses at over priced levels results in a poor to medocre result from your investing.
> 
> ...




Using a arbitrary date like you and Starcraftmazter have been ("circa 2000") during your debate isn't any more meaningful. "circa 2000" which you complained "had a degree of bubblyness". I just posted to where you can find historic CPI data and how you can apply it to the All Ords to calculate real returns over arbitrary time periods.

You can choose whichever data point you want to from the time series, or you might use a moving average or a linear regression.

I've provided a solution and an example of its application to the question that arose as to how to work out the real difference for the XAO between arbitrary dates using the Australian CPI figures.

I don't really want to participate in the broader debate that has developed in the past few pages.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Yes - but living standards are very relative. You should not compare them across time, but rather to the richest people alive _today_.




In a capitalist society there will always be mega rich people and there will always be poorer people.

Notice that the "poor" people in a capitalist society generally live a life that a poor person under a different system would consider hog heaven.

A poor australian lives a life a poor person in bangladesh would dream off.

The greatest Myth in our society is that people get rich at the expense of others, this is untrue., they became rich by making our lives richer and more comfortable.

ie, thomas edison became mega rich by inventing the light bulb and starting which improved the world for all

same can be said for Steve jobs, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Henry ford, Rockerfella, Andrew forrest, Frank lowy, etc.etc.etc

When you create a product that changes the world, or design a system that generates and distributes goods on a large scale you deserve to become rich.

We all make money according to the amount of business we successfully facilitate, and thats a good thing.


----------



## young-gun (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> When you create a product that changes the world, or design a system that generates and distributes goods on a large scale you deserve to become rich.




do these people deserve to become rich simply because they were blessed with a superior genetic code to the homeless guy i saw eating out of a bin on my lunch break today? just because people are able to do impressive things does not mean they deserve what they receive in return. inequality in us as beings leads to serious inequality throughout society, it is not fair and thats that. even your man buffett has said it simply comes down to luck.


i just realised what thread this was in, just a tad off topic?

asx will have tanked by mid year.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 February 2012)

young-gun said:


> do these people deserve to become rich simply because they were blessed with a superior genetic code to the homeless guy i saw eating out of a bin on my lunch break today? just because people are able to do impressive things does not mean they deserve what they receive in return. inequality in us as beings leads to serious inequality throughout society, it is not fair and thats that. even your man buffett has said it simply comes down to luck.
> 
> 
> i just realised what thread this was in, just a tad off topic?
> ...




It's not like they got a dna test, passed it and then got handed a billion dollars.

They concieved and idea, saw it through years of pain staking work and then changed the world, 

The homeless guy obviously has mental issues, and hopefully can get some help, 

if he gets to the right help he will have a better life than he would in parts of africa where he may have been thrown in the lake at birth.

capitalism works, no other system on earth generates and distributes the amount of goods and services, and it is all based on providing for others so your on situation improves, and the more people you provide for the richer you get.

All the people I mentioned built systems that provided products for millions, jobs for thousands, and millions in tax revenues for schools hospitals etc etc. and then donated large portions of there wealth to charities.


----------



## young-gun (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> It's not like they got a dna test, passed it and then got handed a billion dollars.
> 
> They concieved and idea, saw it through years of pain staking work and then changed the world,




exactly where do you think said attributes come from? im not arguing they dont work hard, im saying the homeless guy never in a million years had a chance to achieve such things. nor am i arguing whether certain systems work better than others. so again, is it fair the one man has been given the ability to achieve great things, while another is 'thrown into the river' as you stated? no. no ifs buts or maybes, life is unfair, its precious(to some), but unfair. 

anyway thats the last from me, perhaps needs to be a new thread.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> In a capitalist society there will always be mega rich people and there will always be poorer people.




Yes, but there exist measures of the spread between the rich and the poor - measures of financial equality. And in most developed countries, certainly the anglo-saxan countries, these measures are at or above historic heights.



Tysonboss1 said:


> Notice that the "poor" people in a capitalist society generally live a life that a poor person under a different system would consider hog heaven.




I do not at all agree with that, the poor people in a capitalist system amount to slaves. Most people do in fact, but the poor are especially badly exploited.



Tysonboss1 said:


> A poor australian lives a life a poor person in bangladesh would dream off.




Bangladesh is a capitalist country as well is it not?



Tysonboss1 said:


> The greatest Myth in our society is that people get rich at the expense of others, this is untrue., they became rich by making our lives richer and more comfortable.




I disagree wholeheartedly. The central bankers at the top get rich by printing money at the expense of everyone else and charging interest on it. They did not do anything for anyone.



Tysonboss1 said:


> When you create a product that changes the world, or design a system that generates and distributes goods on a large scale you deserve to become rich.




These rich people who invented things are nothing compared to the financial elite who print money for a living.

Furthermore, inventing things, having good ideas alone is not enough. Because of the way our economies are set up, your success is reliant upon the central bankers ensuring you get the credit you need to prosper. This will not always be the case. Simply look at what happened to Nikola Tesla when he wanted to give the world free energy.



Tysonboss1 said:


> We all make money according to the amount of business we successfully facilitate, and thats a good thing.




Actually we do not. FIRE economy positions are quite useless to the real economy, yet are highly paid. More so than pretty much all other positions.

This is despite the fact that what you say alone is not the end all be all.


----------



## skyQuake (20 February 2012)

Just a few points...


Starcraftmazter said:


> I disagree wholeheartedly. The central bankers at the top get rich by printing money at the expense of everyone else and charging interest on it. They did not do anything for anyone.




What? Central bankers in the forbes 100? Don't really know of any rich central bankers





> Furthermore, inventing things, having good ideas alone is not enough. Because of the way our economies are set up, your success is reliant upon the central bankers ensuring you get the credit you need to prosper. This will not always be the case. Simply look at what happened to Nikola Tesla when he wanted to give the world free energy.




Central bankers? I think just a local branch manager can handle that. Pretty sure Tesla didn't go to central banks to get a loan. 
These days Angel investors, seed capital, venturecapital or plain old bank lending work just fine.


----------



## notting (20 February 2012)

skyQuake said:


> What? Central bankers in the forbes 100? Don't really know of any rich central bankers



*Exactly. * No motive!!!  No reward for controlling the world! The big retarded pot head conspiracy theory of Mormooners running the world behind the central banks for their own grand benefit is total garbage.
There's better money and lifestyle doing other things like taking bonuses at Citi.  
The smartest thieves steal right out in the open, legally!


----------



## Julia (20 February 2012)

young-gun said:


> exactly where do you think said attributes come from? im not arguing they dont work hard, im saying the homeless guy never in a million years had a chance to achieve such things. nor am i arguing whether certain systems work better than others. so again, is it fair the one man has been given the ability to achieve great things, while another is 'thrown into the river' as you stated? no. no ifs buts or maybes, life is unfair, its precious(to some), but unfair.
> 
> perhaps needs to be a new thread.



Agree about a new thread.  Why don't you start one, based on your comments in the first paragraph above?  It's a fascinating topic but shouldn't probably divert this thread.
There are multifaceted arguments on why some people succeed and others fail so I hope you'll take up the challenge to start a thread on this.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (20 February 2012)

skyQuake said:


> What? Central bankers in the forbes 100? Don't really know of any rich central bankers




Why exactly would they make their wealth public knowledge? The international banking families like Rothschild own so much wealth, it would make the Forbes 100 list look like a orphanarium.

More importantly they have the power to *create money out of thin air*. When you have that, your wealth need not be measured in dollars, but your power to control the world and run it as you see fit.



skyQuake said:


> Central bankers? I think just a local branch manager can handle that. Pretty sure Tesla didn't go to central banks to get a loan.




No, they raise capital from the stock market - which is the main reason I like it. What success have they had getting loan finances from banks? Who knows.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 February 2012)

Stay Bullish everyone, 

Cheers TB.


----------



## skc (29 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Stay Bullish everyone,
> 
> Cheers TB.




Forget about all other trading strategies...feels like it's BTFD time.


----------



## robz7777 (29 February 2012)

skc said:


> Forget about all other trading strategies...feels like it's BTFD time.




BTFD? Pardon my ignorance.. But I can't figure the acronym out! :


----------



## whitefang (29 February 2012)

skc said:


> Forget about all other trading strategies...feels like it's BTFD time.




Problem is US has not had that dip yet...so unless we decouple...
Also true, we did not follow the exact US uptrend since end of Dec either...
XJO seems to have had a resistance at 4300...so maybe today it closes above this line.

cheers,


----------



## skc (29 February 2012)

robz7777 said:


> BTFD? Pardon my ignorance.. But I can't figure the acronym out! :




Buy The Effing Dip

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=BTFD

It's a strategy to deploy when a dartboard looks like stock picking guru... or is it the dart that is the guru


----------



## notting (29 February 2012)

ECB is about to dump another truck load of money into the Euro zone.  
Wouldn't be holding my breath for a dip at this point.
Once they get a few inflation spikes (or even a focus turning to that) in Euroland and US, ASX should start to even up with those markets as AU$ comes off a bit.


----------



## whitefang (29 February 2012)

notting said:


> ECB is about to dump another truck load of money into the Euro zone.
> Wouldn't be holding my breath for a dip at this point.
> Once they get a few inflation spikes (or even a focus turning to that) in Euroland and US, ASX should start to even up with those markets as AU$ comes off a bit.




From what I read, depending on the number, and money's final use, it may be seen in a positive or in a negative light. So there is a chance that the dip may come sooner, though chances are it may take a little bit longer, as you say.
I am more wondering when this thread is going to be on fire again triggered by a sharp correction...so far everything markets have feared seems to be contained...for the time being at least...so we need a black swan, he, he...

cheers,


----------



## Knobby22 (29 February 2012)

Yes, the market feels bullish but somehow theres no depth to it.


----------



## nulla nulla (1 March 2012)

Yesterday spiked like a sell day, today I'm expecting a retrace of 20 - 30 points and then a small further retrace tomorrow which should be the buy oportunity. 

For now it appears the crash has been deferred, however the volitility will remain.


----------



## notting (1 March 2012)

I'm betting Ben's comments will be more positive tonight!!


----------



## young-gun (1 March 2012)

notting said:


> ECB is about to dump another truck load of money into the Euro zone.
> Wouldn't be holding my breath for a dip at this point.
> Once they get a few inflation spikes (or even a focus turning to that) in Euroland and US, ASX should start to even up with those markets as AU$ comes off a bit.




depends if the money is used to plug up balance sheets or to buy gov bonds. give it a few weeks and keep an eye on euro bonds. or they may just lend it back to the ECB at a higher rate 

if bond yields start to creep it would be an indication perhaps banks aren't buying them  and keeping a lid on prices, and we all know what happens once they start to run away.

time will tell.


----------



## notting (1 March 2012)

I don't think you need to worry about all that.
If the banks had no confidence at all they wouldn't bother with the 1% cost.
They have a use for it that will assist them whether it's plugging holes or investing in things at higher %. It's helpful to the macro picture and markets for the short to medium term until inflation kicks in.


----------



## young-gun (1 March 2012)

notting said:


> I don't think you need to worry about all that.
> If the banks had no confidence at all they wouldn't bother with the 1% cost.
> They have a use for it that will assist them whether it's plugging holes or investing in things at higher %. It's helpful to the macro picture and markets for the short to medium term until inflation kicks in.




you're not concerned that the banks are clutching at straws? the ecb can only support them with 1% loan offers for so long, at some point they're going to need to raise funds on their own, 500 bill would surely indicate they are heavily reliant on the ecb offerings at the moment.


----------



## notting (1 March 2012)

There are lot's of concerns out there to be sure.
However ECB is supporting for at least 3 years in which time quite a bit of money can be made!!!


----------



## nulla nulla (2 March 2012)

Yesterdays retrace was higher than I expected and in my opinion it offered up a few buy opportunities, particularly in the last half hour of trade.

I expect we will have a 10 - 20 point gain today following on from the International markets last night.


----------



## young-gun (2 March 2012)

notting said:


> There are lot's of concerns out there to be sure.
> However ECB is supporting for at least 3 years in which time quite a bit of money can be made!!!




alot of money at quite a high risk these days i guess my point was that if the banks dont purchase euro bonds governments once again may not be able to service there debt. not to worry though i think it was in the australian today i read the yields were coming down so banks are obviously already buying up big.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 March 2012)

It looks like the XAO was a front runner yesterday dropping 58 points (1.3%) with the rest of the markets dropping overnight. The DAX particularly took a decent hit.

I anticipate that we will have a further drop today, particularly in resources. Hopefully the initial plunge will be countered by the bargain hunters pushing prices back up a few points.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 March 2012)

GFC Part 2............


----------



## notting (7 March 2012)

Four things it is correcting on-
1 China not as fast as naive people thought.
2 Money from ECB going back to ECB (spooking but temporary IMO)
3 Greece must default to uphold validity of credit default swap. So what?
4 No QE3. Not necessary is a good thing!

Why it will not last
1 Historical value is every where
2 laggers have been waiting for a pull back
3 Shorts have been crowding in for a correction after historic runs everywhere (except here!) - they will be closed out with relief.
4 Facebook. (IBM, Yelp, Apple to name a few already running on the new oil - tech)
5 Sell off was not high volume.


----------



## MrBurns (7 March 2012)

Uncle Festivus said:


> GFC Part 2............




Can't be I sold the last of my shares 2 weeks ago that means we are in for a rally.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (7 March 2012)

I doubt QE3 has anything to do with it - those hopes are long faded ( for now ).

I would imagine it's all about China and Greece.

Volume was lowish yesterday, but it's quite high today ( so far ).


----------



## barney (7 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Volume was lowish yesterday, but it's quite high today ( so far ).





Regarding Volume .......... Would anyone be able to post up a chart with the real Futs/SPI volume for yesterday/last week if possible?

I only have bucket shop data and am interested to compare .... Thanks


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 March 2012)

barney said:


> Regarding Volume .......... Would anyone be able to post up a chart with the real Futs/SPI volume for yesterday/last week if possible?




IB data so absolute numbers will be off but as far as comparison they do,




and Nasdaq


----------



## nulla nulla (7 March 2012)

tanked and rebound as expected then tanked more than I expected. I thought China, Greece and flat Australian Interest rates were already factored in. However I have been expecting a pull back from the 4300 - 4400 towards the 4100 - 4200 area. Any more than that is sellers getting carried away imo.


----------



## barney (7 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> IB data so absolute numbers will be off but as far as comparison they do,






Thanks for that ..... The "relative" Bar sizes on AxiTrader are near enough to be useful on the daily.  

Could you do me a favour and throw up a 1 minute chart on the* Dax * for the last couple of days ....   Been doing some work on a range system and curious how close the short time frame volumes might be   

Cheers.

Here is the AxiTrader Dax chart for comparison (bit fuzzy unfortunately)

ps Hows the ticker hanging in?


----------



## young-gun (7 March 2012)

notting said:


> 4 No QE3. Not necessary is a good thing!




They think it's not necessary, give it 3-6 months, they may not even be able to act quick enough.

big tank today


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 March 2012)

barney said:


> Could you do me a favour and throw up a 1 minute chart on the* Dax * for the last couple of days ....   Been doing some work on a range system and curious how close the short time frame volumes might be.




Not sure this is any good. 



I can email you 3 months of 1 min data. In fact 3 years probably. Then if you haven't any software to use it you can download NT for free.


----------



## barney (7 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Not sure this is any good.
> View attachment 46346
> 
> 
> I can email you 3 months of 1 min data. In fact 3 years probably. Then if you haven't any software to use it you can download NT for free.




Its all good TH ..... The essence is there ..... and thanks for doing that.

The main moves/volume even though not the same are consistent enough to make sense out of  ...... almost makes you wonder whether there might be an edge to be found (trading the bucket shops ... by watching the real data simultaneously ... it seems to get "rounded" off (spread over a wider time frame) around where the real data/volume has its bigger moves/range.

Not much on ASF regarding the DAX, but I'm seeing some really interesting patterns within the daily range ... especially considering it gets two surges with both the European and then US opens ....... work in progress, but I'm really keen on where its leading ..... Of course simming is a bit different to reality

Don't want to de-rail this thread which is ASX, so I'll butt out now


----------



## VSntchr (20 March 2012)

Looks like EUROland is having a mini-tank tonight..


----------



## tinhat (20 March 2012)

VSntchr said:


> Looks like EUROland is having a mini-tank tonight..




Did you panic when the DAX fell 3% on 06/03/12?

The DAX has had a pretty good run over the past two weeks and has closed outside the upper Bolinger band three days in a row before forming a hanging man (candlestick pattern) yesterday. As of yesterday, the 10 day MA was 6943, the thirty day MA was 6687 and the 200 day MA was 6270.


----------



## notting (20 March 2012)

First there was this. (from THE AGE) John Garnaut, Beijing
February 9, 2012 - 



> *China power play: anti-corruption officials vanish *
> Mr Wang was until last month the right hand man of China’s most polarising politician, Bo Xilai, the charismatic Communist Party boss of Chongqing city.
> 
> Mr Bo inspired and repulsed the nation by launching a quota-driven crusade against the city’s mafia – led by Mr Wang - and a wave of neo-Maoist mania that last year swept across the nation.
> ...




Then we get the new figures that China’s imports have outdone exports for the first time in about 20 years surprising almost everyone!!

We then get the premier Wen Jiabao  stating publicly that, "corruption needs to be addressed or there could be another cultural revolution!!!"  What??

I’ve never heard an official in such a high position make a public comment like that!  He almost seemed frustrated that all his good work was about to be trashed by the corrupt hidden leadership who think they know better to serve themselves at the cost of the people.

We then get another confirmation today from BHP saying demand is softening from China.

Not sure exactly what to make of all this, however a few things seem to be coming unstuck in China as the new leadership puppets are paraded out to take the wheel, and are finding that perhaps the ship ain't sailing as smoothly as the price of oil rises and the Euro tide is going out and inflation is no where near as under control as they would like us all to think!!?


----------



## skc (20 March 2012)

This thread will be alive again!

Now the trillion dollar question... 

Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?


----------



## So_Cynical (21 March 2012)

skc said:


> This thread will be alive again!
> 
> Now the trillion dollar question...
> 
> Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?




FTSE is down 1% .. big deal.

Besides im super close to being able to get out of 3 of my 11 open trades...

Com on the rally!!!


----------



## blue0810 (21 March 2012)

skc said:


> This thread will be alive again!
> 
> Now the trillion dollar question...
> 
> Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?




I like to play soccer, it is good to score at the beginng of the game, if we want to win.
Otherwise it is too painful to wait until last minute, because there is  high risk to go
penalty shoot out


----------



## sinner (21 March 2012)

skc said:


> This thread will be alive again!
> 
> Now the trillion dollar question...
> 
> Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?




Don't let overseas bullishness colour the lenses, XJO is close but not there yet IMHO. KOSPI is the 'good' Asian index at the moment.

Annoying because I was expecting way more juice for the XJO in Q1.


----------



## tinhat (21 March 2012)

notting said:


> We then get the premier Wen Jiabao  stating publicly that, "corruption needs to be addressed or there could be another cultural revolution!!!"  What??
> 
> I’ve never heard an official in such a high position make a public comment like that!



Over the years from time to time the jostles for power between political factions in China have been quite evident as they are in any political system. The above is just part of that which recently has been centred around a debate about getting tough on corruption.



notting said:


> We then get another confirmation today from BHP saying demand is softening from China.



According to the Oz (& AAP I believe)...


> Demand growth for the commodity used to make steel would drop "to single digits if it is not already there," Ian Ashby, president of iron ore at the mining giant, said during the Global Iron Ore and Steel Conference in Perth.
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ingle-digits-bhp/story-e6frg9df-1226305218250



Fortescue have come out today saying that their estimate is that the natural floor under iron ore prices over the medium term is at about $140 per tonne (of course they are selling their story). Mining is just as much about the cost curve as the demand curve. Notice that FMG went up today?

*edit*
According to AAP, Ian Ashby of BHP actually also said that he believes the natural floor under iron ore is around $120. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...ening-bhp-admits/story-fn7j19iv-1226305262154


----------



## Uncle Festivus (22 March 2012)

notting said:


> Not sure exactly what to make of all this, however a few things seem to be coming unstuck in China as the new leadership puppets are paraded out to take the wheel, and are finding that perhaps the ship ain't sailing as smoothly as the price of oil rises and the Euro tide is going out and inflation is no where near as under control as they would like us all to think!!?




China is the bull in the China shop - *story*.

Generally, I think the main driver of this 'rally' has been the monthly US employment numbers, which _appear_ to be good but as they are guestimates it can be shown that they have been overstated, for whatever reason (it is an election year after all).

So, sooner or later the stats department will have to 'revise' down their guestimates and the market will tank, again. I give it till May at the latest.....unless economic reality shows it's face sooner......

[video]http://youtu.be/V3gCsViMbzw[/video]


----------



## young-gun (22 March 2012)

Uncle Festivus said:


> China is the bull in the China shop - *story*.
> 
> Generally, I think the main driver of this 'rally' has been the monthly US employment numbers, which _appear_ to be good but as they are guestimates it can be shown that they have been overstated, for whatever reason (it is an election year after all).
> 
> ...




i read in the australian this morning bernanke making comparisons between current situations and the great depression. he pointed out a couple of indicators, but mainly mentioned how the fed raised interest rates in '33, which turned out to be too soon and it crippled recovery. he doesnt want to make the same mistake again.

seems he isnt fooled by obamas false job rates, why is everyone else in this rally?(if it may be the reason behind the rally that is)


----------



## Struzball (23 March 2012)

young-gun said:


> why is everyone else in this rally?(if it may be the reason behind the rally that is)




I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?

Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).

How on earth are we as prosperous or more prosperous than the credit fueled sub prime rally from 2003 to 2007.  What's driving it?

I get the feeling that the only thing that is driving the rise is the lack of sellers, rather than the insatiable demand for stocks.  

What happens when people start selling and volume increases?  Will DJIA pass 14000 before that happens?


----------



## nulla nulla (23 March 2012)

Sell into the spikes, buy in the dips. Yesterday was a sell day, today most likely will be a buy day. Pick your targets and good hunting.


----------



## McLovin (23 March 2012)

Struzball said:


> I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?
> 
> Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).




Actually, when I look at the DJIA, it looks like we are in one big mighty sideways market. Almost 13 years ago the Dow broke through 10,000.


----------



## Junior (23 March 2012)

Struzball said:


> I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?
> 
> Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).
> 
> ...




Look at the biggest constituents of the DJIA and you'll find the answer.  Google, Apple, J&J etc. have managed strong earnings growth over the past couple of years....I guess the performance of those companies isn't representative of the state of the US economy as a whole.


----------



## notting (25 March 2012)

Mean while the epicenter looks to be shifting to a major fault line.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46844448


----------



## young-gun (25 March 2012)

notting said:


> Mean while the epicenter looks to be shifting to a major fault line.
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/46844448




i have a gut feeling 2012 is going to be a year no one will ever forget.


----------



## young-gun (25 March 2012)

Struzball said:


> I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?
> 
> Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).
> 
> ...




i am surprised the dow has gone this far, i guess its hard to predict just how much affect pumping over a trillion$ into an economy may have.

as junior said, there is few stocks that i guess almost appear as safe havens in the US market at the moment and take up large portions of the market. much like our market is dominated by companies like bhp rio coles and woolies. hedge funds absolutely love apple at the moment.  

one things for sure its going to be a fun and interesting ride.


----------



## Bill M (25 March 2012)

young-gun said:


> i have a gut feeling 2012 is going to be a year no one will ever forget.




I don't think so, I think March 2009 when the All Ords was down 55% will hold that record.


----------



## cynic (26 March 2012)

Bill M said:


> I don't think so, I think March 2009 when the All Ords was down 55% will hold that record.




I admire your optimism. Years of observation of the markets have taught me that if there's one thing that can be relied upon, it's the predictably unpredictabe behaviour of financial markets. Any level above zero is fair game.


----------



## willstor (26 March 2012)

well we are up this morning but will it break 4300? my guess is it'll come close and fade

europe seems to be bracing for another fall out so shorting up here could pay off short term


----------



## NewToTheTrade (26 March 2012)

willstor said:


> well we are up this morning but will it break 4300? my guess is it'll come close and fade
> 
> europe seems to be bracing for another fall out so shorting up here could pay off short term




not bad... not too bad at all


----------



## craft (27 March 2012)

9 Months and 100+ pages.

Some interesting fears and projections in there.


----------



## Bill M (27 March 2012)

craft said:


> 9 Months and 100+ pages.
> 
> Some interesting fears and projections in there.




You are right there craft. The thread was opened on the 5th. of August. The All Ords traded between 4150 and 4302 on that day and today it closed at 4391. Despite all the gloom and doom with some predicting silly things like 1100 and 1200 on the All Ords nothing came of it. It's all about value, when I see value I buy, hold and collect those even better big fat juicy dividends. Just like when the markets hit 6800 and everyone was thinking everything is just going great, jump on the train, the only way is up. And now everyone is thinking the next crash is just around the corner.

You ever noticed those online advertising banners? In 2010 they read, "Massive crash to hit in 2010", then in the new year they changed the banner to read 2011, second week into January this year and the same banners now read "Massive crash to hit in 2012". I wonder how many Thousands of $$$$$ that company made out of predicting Doom and Gloom?


----------



## young-gun (27 March 2012)

Bill M said:


> You are right there craft. The thread was opened on the 5th. of August. The All Ords traded between 4150 and 4302 on that day and today it closed at 4391. Despite all the gloom and doom with some predicting silly things like 1100 and 1200 on the All Ords nothing came of it. It's all about value, when I see value I buy, hold and collect those even better big fat juicy dividends. Just like when the markets hit 6800 and everyone was thinking everything is just going great, jump on the train, the only way is up. And now everyone is thinking the next crash is just around the corner.
> 
> You ever noticed those online advertising banners? In 2010 they read, "Massive crash to hit in 2010", then in the new year they changed the banner to read 2011, second week into January this year and the same banners now read "Massive crash to hit in 2012". I wonder how many Thousands of $$$$$ that company made out of predicting Doom and Gloom?




there is money to be made no doubt. only in day trading IMO with the exception of a few small caps and specys that might run up for a couple of months here n there. italian bond yields crept above 5%, would appear the cheap loans arent finding there way to government bonds as well as they did in the first round?


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

I see theres some comments here about the All Ords tanking to 1200 levels.
It would help to understand how ultimately the All Ords comes to be at the level it is today.
While yes the maket in the short term is unpredictable, when a risk assessment is done, its very unlikely to even get close to that level.
There are a lot of factors to be taken into consideration.

Today the All ords has risen above a longterm resistance level. So hopefully now it will see prices rise.
Having said that, I dont expect a huge rally like the S&P500. We dont have the economic fundamentals to back it up and a high AUD doesnt help our exporters.

I think any new highs would be atleast 2-3 years away yet.


----------



## craft (28 March 2012)

zac said:


> I see theres some comments here about the All Ords tanking to 1200 levels.
> It would help to understand how ultimately the All Ords comes to be at the level it is today.
> While yes the maket in the short term is unpredictable, when a risk assessment is done, its very unlikely to even get close to that level.
> There are a lot of factors to be taken into consideration.
> ...




So you have ‘observed’ a bullish break and you have ‘predicted’ it will be muted.

What are you going to do?


----------



## Struzball (28 March 2012)

craft said:


> So you have ‘observed’ a bullish break and you have ‘predicted’ it will be muted.
> 
> What are you going to do?




Panic?


----------



## howmanyru (28 March 2012)

Might have to ditch this thread for a few months - ASX closing above 4400 is quite bullish for now IMO, sure it will be the favorite thread again soon


----------



## McLovin (28 March 2012)

craft said:


> Some interesting fears and projections in there.




Indeed. I've been following this thread since it started. If you ever needed an example of how fear and greed (in an asymetrical way) drives the market, this is it.


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

craft said:


> So you have ‘observed’ a bullish break and you have ‘predicted’ it will be muted.
> 
> What are you going to do?




LOL i guess you could say that.
I just mean to say now that 4400 is breached and with more confidence slowly entering the market there should be a slow run to new long term highs.
I dont expect it to be a rally though as Australia economic data isnt that great.

As an example of economic data I do like, the Nikkei appears like a good index to get on, but alas ive committed my pennies now to the ASX300 Index.


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> Indeed. I've been following this thread since it started. If you ever needed an example of how fear and greed (in an asymetrical way) drives the market, this is it.




Im starting to learn about market cycles and how fear/greed, sentiment etc works.
Im learning that theres 3 types of money that goes into a market,
Smart money (recovery)
Dumb Money (recovered)
Late comers  (Bubble-Bust)

Each phased may be 1-3 years apart.

It seems most people except for the intelligent investor miss the phase they really want to get in on though.


----------



## young-gun (28 March 2012)

zac said:


> I see theres some comments here about the All Ords tanking to 1200 levels.
> It would help to understand how ultimately the All Ords comes to be at the level it is today.
> While yes the maket in the short term is unpredictable, when a risk assessment is done, its very unlikely to even get close to that level.
> There are a lot of factors to be taken into consideration.
> ...




oct 24th 1929 - US market fell 11%.
oct 28th 1929 - us market crashed another 13%
oct 29th 1929 - us market fell yet another 12%

in less than a week? i bet on the wednesday prior no one thought such events could possibly take place.

ANYTHING is possible in markets at any point in time. no matter how unlikely such an event may seem, you never know what tomorrow will hold.

risk assessments are only so useful when there isn't so many variables at play, thats not to say you can't minimise your risk.

i am not claiming the above is about to happen just pointing out how dangerous markets can be, as alot of investors already experienced when the gfc took hold. the market has just as much chance of hitting all time lows as any other scenario in the current economic climate.


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

young-gun said:


> oct 24th 1929 - US market fell 11%.
> oct 28th 1929 - us market crashed another 13%
> oct 29th 1929 - us market fell yet another 12%
> 
> ...




Yeah I understand what youre saying. While the timing of it and the intensity were unpredictable. It wasnt unpredictable that a major correction was going to take place.
I can only comment on the recent ones however, with the Tech Boom and GFC there were warning bells.
With the Euro crisis alot of fear was factored in yet I was expecting a major correction if there wasnt any resolution.
One that caught me off guard was the US Credit downgrade. I beleive that was the biggest sustained 5 day sell off in history or atleast one of the biggest.


----------



## young-gun (28 March 2012)

zac said:


> Yeah I understand what youre saying. While the timing of it and the intensity were unpredictable. It wasnt unpredictable that a major correction was going to take place.
> I can only comment on the recent ones however, with the Tech Boom and GFC there were warning bells.
> With the Euro crisis alot of fear was factored in yet I was expecting a major correction if there wasnt any resolution.
> One that caught me off guard was the US Credit downgrade. I beleive that was the biggest sustained 5 day sell off in history or atleast one of the biggest.




we're not out of the woods yet, euro zone is still looking to beef up its bailout fund(obviously see much mroe trouble on the horizon). it doesnt bother you that central banks are pumping trillions of dollars into economies and the world is still slipping backwards?

if there were warning bells there must not have been many people that heard them. it was before i became interested so i am unsure of the events and news at the particular times.


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

young-gun said:


> it doesnt bother you that central banks are pumping trillions of dollars into economies and the world is still slipping backwards?




I personally think this is great. On a short term front. Look at the S&P 500 during QE2, it had a nice bull run and the run stopped when QE2 ceased.
While its bad for the countries economy ultimately, its good while its in progress to stimulate demand etc.

Bernanke hinted the night before last that they may engage in QE3 and immediately on that info the S&P 500 surged.

As an example of this, watch the Japanese economy. They are about to start printing more yen in an effort to seriously devalue their currency and have a target of 1% inflation.

I guess ulitmately the market is priced at a place where the general public beleive it should be. Fundamentally I dont think the data agrees with market sentiment.

While im a bit flat on the ASX outlook, im bullish on the American markets due to fundamental reasons.


----------



## Ves (28 March 2012)

young-gun said:


> in less than a week? i bet on the wednesday prior no one thought such events could possibly take place.



I remember reading about this before. But I could not for the life of me remember the specifics. So I did a google search.

The market increased five fold in the five years leading up to the crash.

Every man and his dog were out there reportedly saying  things like "the market will go up forever, this is the golden age." I remember learning in school, that the social climate in 1920s america was full of excesses. I wouldn't suspect the stock market to be much different.

Also from Wikipedia



> In the days leading up to the crash, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery. Economist and author Jude Wanniski later correlated these swings with the prospects for passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which was then being debated in Congress.




Also, on the first day it fell 11-12% on the opening. But traders on the floor bid it back up and it actually closed down only 1.6% for that day.

Whilst most smaller investors obviously didn't pick the crash, it is not like after considering those two snippets that it was a "great shock" by that point in time.

The main problem is that the huge trading range prior to the weekend caused panic on the Monday when it actually did fall 13%.

Also keep in mind that the P/E ratio of the S & P 500 was 32.6 before the crash!


----------



## young-gun (28 March 2012)

Ves said:


> I remember reading about this before. But I could not for the life of me remember the specifics. So I did a google search.
> 
> The market increased five fold in the five years leading up to the crash.
> 
> ...




i just picked wednesday out of thin air, i couldnt find the stats in the lead up as i was in a hurry even so, volatile trading a week or two before still wouldnt indicate what was coming. i think for all of that to occur in just a couple of weeks would have been a shock of some degree to almost everyone. even those that knew something wasnt right.

it was actually the banks that bid it back up, they were trying to stabilise the market and stop the panic, it didnt work.

these excesses you speak of, i wonder if they were anything like the excesses of the past 20 years?

the run up in the market back then was debt fueled and over purchased, much like todays market. the difference between then and now is it actually managed to deflate itself to make room for a recovery and future boom.


----------



## McLovin (28 March 2012)

Ves said:


> Whilst most smaller investors obviously didn't pick the crash, it is not like after considering those two snippets that it was a "great shock" by that point in time.
> 
> The main problem is that the huge trading range prior to the weekend caused panic on the Monday when it actually did fall 13%.
> 
> Also keep in mind that the P/E ratio of the S & P 500 was 32.6 before the crash!




There's the fable of Joe Kennedy (JFK's dad) selling all his shares because the kid shining his shoes was asking for investment advice. The theory being that if even the guy cleaning your shoes is speculating on stocks it's time get out.

IMO, the GFC was harder to pick. Stocks (in the US) didn't look disgracefully overpriced, although if you had even a cursory glance at an average US bank balance sheet you would seen the enormous leveraging they had. Iirc, at its peak in late 2006 Citi's leverage was out over 50x and with DTA's excluded over 90x. That implies that only 1-2% of assets need to go bad for equity to be wiped out.

ETA: I just checked and excluding DTA's would have pushed Citi's leverage out to over 280x. So somewhere approaching ~0.3% of their loans needed to go bad.


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

From memory I beleive the big crash in the 20s was caused by the Fed calling in Margins or something similar.
Over shadowed by Osama Bin Ladens death, the same day the American in an attempt to prevent their currency devaluing increased margins on the Commodities market.

With the whole GFC that certainly was interesting and many say it was the collapse of Lehman brothers when in fact they were way after many of the other collapses. That was basically the straw that broke the camels back.

Interestingly govt policy and the Fed had a hand in creating the GFC. I never used to be in to conspiracy theories but since ive been diving deep into how the global economy works, ive realised all the major crashes have been calculated by people behind the scenes.


----------



## Julia (28 March 2012)

zac said:


> I personally think this is great. On a short term front. Look at the S&P 500 during QE2, it had a nice bull run and the run stopped when QE2 ceased.
> While its bad for the countries economy ultimately, its good while its in progress to stimulate demand etc.



What a short sighted view.


----------



## zac (28 March 2012)

Julia said:


> What a short sighted view.




LOL i did say short term Julia


----------



## Starcraftmazter (28 March 2012)

Nothing to see here, could well be a false breakout.

Seriously, the fundamentals just aren't there - think about it, we've just had BHP warning about a slowdown in Chinese demand and a really bad PMI come out of there. This is on the back of poor housing data in the US last week, and a piss weak sentiment reading this week.

In fact our market is the only one to rally in the last 24 hours - it's insanity.

ASX is going down soon


----------



## notting (28 March 2012)

zac said:


> alas ive committed my pennies now to the ASX300 Index.



 Your smarter than you think.


----------



## notting (28 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> In fact our market is the only one to rally in the last 24 hours - it's insanity.




Our market should be higher than all the international ones! 
Should have been all along!  Boyd by local investors who should now be banking a few profits as we sit at around 5000 the internationals now come in on a weaker dollar. 
Take the licenses off all Ausi Superfund managers they don't deserve to be in the game. 
Unbelievably incompetent!


----------



## lenny (29 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Nothing to see here, could well be a false breakout.
> 
> Seriously, the fundamentals just aren't there - think about it, we've just had BHP warning about a slowdown in Chinese demand and a really bad PMI come out of there. This is on the back of poor housing data in the US last week, and a piss weak sentiment reading this week.
> 
> ...




Don't under estimate the role technicals play in this game star!


----------



## sinner (29 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> ASX is going down soon




On the probability front, downs form here on out are good lower timeframe buys and shorting ups is no longer probabilistically advised, at least for as long as the XAO holds around 4250.




Anyone notice how far from the index STW fund has strayed?


----------



## young-gun (29 March 2012)

lenny said:


> Don't under estimate the role technicals play in this game star!




IMO technicals are only good when you have a solid trend developed over a couple of years, whether it be up or down.
 i begun trading systems just fter the gfc, as this is what sparked my interest in markets, and i liked the idea that the market was somewhat predictable. turns out it was, before the gfc, when the systems were developed. technicals said, market is still going up. needless to say, i no longer trade those systems.


sinner said:


> probabilistically




i didnt even know that was a word...


----------



## notting (29 March 2012)

Speaking of systems
Check this old boy, he's been in for quite a while and seems convinced his system is, well, *infallable*.  
You will understand after viewing it why it's in this thread!!!

[video]http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/[/video]

Gotta note him he's still at the table!

Maybe the BRICS are about to declair war on QEs getting their own back!


----------



## Tyler Durden (29 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Nothing to see here, could well be a false breakout.
> 
> Seriously, the fundamentals just aren't there - think about it, we've just had BHP warning about a slowdown in Chinese demand and a really bad PMI come out of there. This is on the back of poor housing data in the US last week, and a piss weak sentiment reading this week.
> 
> ...




Agree.

Where are people's money going?



> AUSTRALIANS are paying down mortgages at the fastest rate since the peak of the global financial crisis, with home owners putting in almost double the minimum monthly repayment on loans.
> 
> The trend provides more evidence of the rapid shift in the behaviour of Australians in recent years, with many taking a cautious approach towards debt, while more of us are putting funds into deposits.
> 
> This is in sharp contrast to the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, when access to easy and cheap credit had fuelled a consumer spending spree.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/owners-in-rush-to-pay-home-loans-20120328-1vys3.html


----------



## zac (29 March 2012)

I wasnt aware of the rate at which people are paying off their mortgages.
However ive really noticed that people are very cautious and become reluctant to expose themselves to risk.
Fundamentally so many companies are better off now than they were just before the GFC and theres plenty more bargains out there.
Yet people prefer the safety of banks and secure assets. Which has been evident globally.

Having said that, its only been the last few weeks that money is slowly trickling out of them.

Ironically the media was a while back hyping up that GFC II may happen. But that was never going to be the case as so many people already positioned themselves for it anyway.


----------



## So_Cynical (29 March 2012)

notting said:


> Speaking of systems
> Check this old boy, he's been in for quite a while and seems convinced his system is, well, *infallable*.
> You will understand after viewing it why it's in this thread!!!
> 
> ...




That video was posted on the 23 Jan, and he saying its the top and will fall heavily over the next few weeks..Feb.

Wrong.


----------



## notting (4 April 2012)

Why wait for May? Now that it's official, no printing will occur. (Well, officially)
Gotta have a crack at getten those oil prices down somehow you old snake in the grass Benny Boy.
Running away!


----------



## young-gun (4 April 2012)

notting said:


> Why wait for May? Now that it's official, no printing will occur. (Well, officially)
> Gotta have a crack at getten those oil prices down somehow you old snake in the grass Benny Boy.
> Running away!




i cant pull up the chart as i dont have the programs anymore, but if someone can have a look at whats happened to the asx200 from april the past 2 years. im not a supporter of technicals anymore but its hit the brakes 2 years running. nervous anyone?


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 April 2012)

young-gun said:


> im not a supporter of technicals anymore



 Supporter for TA to archive what exactly


----------



## young-gun (4 April 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Supporter for TA to archive what exactly
> 
> View attachment 46643




sorry, i was referring to a more comprehensive chart i saw today. i cant find it, point is asx has fallen from april the past 2 years, not sure if there is any reason behind it or if its just co-incidence.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (4 April 2012)

young-gun said:


> sorry, i was referring to a more comprehensive chart i saw today. i cant find it, point is asx has fallen from april the past 2 years, not sure if there is any reason behind it or if its just co-incidence.




Just to clarify - do you mean started dropping once the date reaches April, or the tops have been in April for the last 2 years?


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 April 2012)

young-gun said:


> sorry, i was referring to a more comprehensive chart i saw today. i cant find it, point is asx has fallen from april the past 2 years, not sure if there is any reason behind it or if its just co-incidence.




What do you mean. That is the price action in monthly bars. How can it be more comprehensive?


----------



## young-gun (4 April 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Just to clarify - do you mean started dropping once the date reaches April, or the tops have been in April for the last 2 years?




2 noticeable peaks in april followed by quite sharp declines. from 5050 to 4350 approx in 2010 in a couple of months and then from around 5000 to well below 4000 in 2011 in about 6 months?. anyone have any insight as to what may have driven this?


----------



## notting (4 April 2012)

How quiet is the M&A activity.  
It's like there is this deathly silence in the air!!


----------



## young-gun (4 April 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> What do you mean. That is the price action in monthly bars. How can it be more comprehensive?




technicals was perhaps the wrong label


----------



## tinhat (4 April 2012)

notting said:


> How quiet is the M&A activity.
> It's like there is this deathly silence in the air!!




A few weeks ago the usual brokers that roll out onto Switzer were starting to say look out for M&A targets, even touting FMG as a potential take over target.

As to whoever it was asking for the impressive graph it was in today's perma-bear publication "Money Morning" under the title "This Market is Toast".

Here is my Easter prediction for 2012. April will be a down month but the XAO will not fall below 4200. Just remember, you heard it from some bloke on the internet.


----------



## CanOz (5 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> A few weeks ago the usual brokers that roll out onto Switzer were starting to say look out for M&A targets, even touting FMG as a potential take over target.
> 
> As to whoever it was asking for the impressive graph it was in today's perma-bear publication "Money Morning" under the title "This Market is Toast".
> 
> Here is my Easter prediction for 2012. April will be a down month but the XAO will not fall below 4200. Just remember, you heard it from some bloke on the internet.




Agree, I'm thinking retracement.....'risk off' for a while

Keep an eye on the ^vix though......

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla (5 April 2012)

Big drop in the international markets overnight, last night. Today is the last day of trading on the ASX prior to the close off for the Easter long weekend. Anticipating a bit of a sell off today following on from yesterdays small retrace. Cashed up and ready to buy.


----------



## Chasero (5 April 2012)

gold down to 3 month lows.

silver down 7%

Oil near $100!

Should be a nice risk off day today entering long weekend


----------



## Tyler Durden (5 April 2012)

Hello Spain - welcome to the party


----------



## young-gun (9 April 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> Hello Spain - welcome to the party




:bananasmi:fan


----------



## nulla nulla (11 April 2012)

How much will the XAO tank by today? All predictions welcome. Europe, Asia and the U.S.A dropped further last night and now the negative "concerns" are escalating issues in Portugal and Italy combining with fears of a "slowing" domestic economy in China ("Slowing" means not growing at 10%+).

Looks like a major case of fear mongering intended to drive markets down, not that the U.S.A markets didn't need correcting anyway. 

Resources will take another hit today, probably finances as well.


----------



## MrBurns (11 April 2012)

We never seem to tank like the US nor go up for that matter if you look at the 2 year graph, the US is way ahead of us, we seem to be in a funk all of our own.


----------



## notting (11 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> We never seem to tank like the US nor go up for that matter if you look at the 2 year graph, the US is way ahead of us, we seem to be in a funk all of our own.




Well, the majors have been behaving relatively sensibly over the last nine months or so, however, our mid and smaller caps have been doing the pogo along with the grown up internationals.  And we were quite good at tanking in all ways when tanking was in vogue.
So that's not all together true. 

All eyes on Spain is not the place we want to look if we want to enjoy the Kool-Aid a little longer.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 April 2012)

Very mediocre response to the internationals. apart from resources re-acting to china's growth slow down the rest of the market was fairly static, even presenting a couple of entries.


----------



## notting (14 April 2012)

I like to look at this page to get a bit of a feel for the mood.
Have to say, I jolted a little when I saw it today!
Haven't seen such a clear picture for quite some time.


----------



## young-gun (14 April 2012)

notting said:


> I like to look at this page to get a bit of a feel for the mood.
> Have to say, I jolted a little when I saw it today!
> Haven't seen such a clear picture for quite some time.
> View attachment 46736




the recession/depression bear likes to take a small walk when stimulus is thrown at him.... seems to keep him away for shorter and shorter periods these days. tick tock


----------



## Tyler Durden (17 April 2012)

Some support for my guess that we are currently on some form of false positive:



> MORE than $80 billion will be wiped from the value of Australia's sharemarket by the end of the year - a prediction that throws more fuel on the debate about the value of investing in stocks compared with bonds - according to one of the country's leading equities strategists.
> 
> Tim Rocks, the managing director of global research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, yesterday said the market would lose nearly 7 per cent in value this year - a figure that flies in the face of other market predictions - as stifling financial conditions, continued dismal earnings forecasts, and a troubled US economy combined to depress the sharemarket, dragging it down to the 4000 points mark.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/scary-optimism-prompts-market-warning-20120416-1x3p3.html


----------



## kid hustlr (18 April 2012)

strong open then steady sell off today?


----------



## nulla nulla (18 April 2012)

After the bounce on last nights international market, yesterday may turn out to have been the day to buy.


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

Well I'm either going to buy a home unit or a swag of TLS in a week or 2, what are the odds I choose the next market to tank ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Well I'm either going to buy a home unit or a swag of TLS in a week or 2, what are the odds I choose the next market to tank ?




Why is it an all or nothing bet? Can you not manage the risk better than being at the mercy of a tanking trade?


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Why is it an all or nothing bet? Can you not manage the risk better than being at the mercy of a tanking trade?




Doesn't seem to matter what I do, I just cannot manage risk as you say,I've spread it around a number of shares before and still lost, the only good thing I did was not to plunge head first into the market in mid 06. that would have cost a bundle. TLS gives a good return and I can wait it out if it slides a bit.

Home unit will alwys be there but not as liquid.


----------



## zac (18 April 2012)

Why TLS?
Id say if youre scared about the market going down on you, then perhaps the peace of mind of the property investment will suit your risk profile.

As for will the market go down further, it most definitely can. Look at everything that has hit and plagued the market of late from within the last 9 months, to the last 3 years.
It hasnt gotten under 3900 pts in recent times. So what will it take to make the ASX sink under 3900.
Our strong AUD hasnt helped our companies either with being profitable, so in my opinion the market can only grow. Having said that China will be an issue. While I dont beleive its as bad as its made out to be, the fact of the matter is if growth is slowing down in China, there will be less demand for our resources/commodities.

If Australia wasnt so reliant on commodities as a net export, it perhaps wouldnt be much of an issue.


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

zac said:


> Why TLS?
> Id say if youre scared about the market going down on you, then perhaps the peace of mind of the property investment will suit your risk profile.
> 
> As for will the market go down further, it most definitely can. Look at everything that has hit and plagued the market of late from within the last 9 months, to the last 3 years.
> ...




I think there might be more to be made with TLS than passive property in the next 5 years, but guess work really, the market is unpredicable or we would all be in Monaco sipping champers with swimsuit models.


----------



## zac (18 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I think there might be more to be made with TLS than passive property in the next 5 years, but guess work really, the market is unpredicable or we would all be in Monaco sipping champers with swimsuit models.




You "think" isnt showing much confidence, but what do you base this on?
I had a quick look at the financials of TLS to see if there was anything there that could shed some light.
I know of late the share price has had some good movement but looking at its financials I think its an accident waiting to happen.
I notice that in the recent financial year it paid more as a Dividend payout than it made through earnings. 
The following year will be a 100% dividend payout on projected earnings and then the year after not much better.
Unless the company takes on massive debt, this doesnt cater for any growth in the company.
So for my liking TLS is ringing alarm bells.


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

zac said:


> You "think" isnt showing much confidence, but what do you base this on?




I dont know anyone who "knows" do you ?

I expect property to tank, it's started already, more unemployment, large mortgages and so on.

Thanks for your thoughts on TLS it all helps with my decision making, but in the end it's a leap of faith whatever you do.


----------



## CanOz (18 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I dont know anyone who "knows" do you ?
> 
> I expect property to tank, it's started already, more unemployment, large mortgages and so on.
> 
> Thanks for your thoughts on TLS it all helps with my decision making, but in the end it's a leap of faith whatever you do.




Mr.Burns, you really should have a read of Unholy Grails by Nick Radge. Take charge of your investments.

CanOZ


----------



## tinhat (18 April 2012)

zac said:


> You "think" isnt showing much confidence, but what do you base this on?
> I had a quick look at the financials of TLS to see if there was anything there that could shed some light.
> I know of late the share price has had some good movement but looking at its financials I think its an accident waiting to happen.
> I notice that in the recent financial year it paid more as a Dividend payout than it made through earnings.
> ...




I think your analysis of TLS is incomplete. It doesn't take into account future expected cash flows from the sale of the copper network "natural monopoly" industry structure to NBN. Perhaps a better place to discuss the merits of TLS would be the TLS thread where those following TLS might be better placed to discuss it?


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> Mr.Burns, you really should have a read of Unholy Grails by Nick Radge. Take charge of your investments.
> 
> CanOZ




There are more investment advice books out there then there should be I think.


----------



## CanOz (18 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> There are more investment advice books out there then there should be I think.




Whatever.....


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> Whatever.....




I didnt mean to be ungrateful, why is it better than the others ?


----------



## CanOz (18 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I didnt mean to be ungrateful, why is it better than the others ?




It documents some *facts* that are very useful for those with an open mind to investing.

CanOz
Edit:fair comment about there being too many investment books around...for the record this is my last book on trading, and i picked the best for last. For once in my life i now know that I'm finally on the right track with my trading and investing. Rince and repeat.


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> It documents some *facts* that are very useful for those with an open mind to investing.
> CanOz
> Edit:fair comment about there being too many investment books around...for the record this is my last book on trading, and i picked the best for last. For once in my life i now know that I'm finally on the right track with my trading and investing. Rince and repeat.




OK thanks I might give it a go


----------



## tinhat (18 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> Mr.Burns, you really should have a read of Unholy Grails by Nick Radge. Take charge of your investments.
> 
> CanOZ




CanOz, I've been meaning to buy and read that book for some time, so I've just ordered it. The best price I found was at fishpond.com.au whom I have never shopped with before. That said,  given the income investing thread Mr Burns started a couple of weeks back, I'd say he is looking at TLS as a fully franked income stock rather than a trade. That said, if "Unholy Grails" has anything to say about position sizing and capital preservation risk management that might be of interest to Mr Burns. TLS currently represents a bit under 7% of the share portfolio I manage.


----------



## CanOz (18 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> CanOz, I've been meaning to buy and read that book for some time, so I've just ordered it. The best price I found was at fishpond.com.au whom I have never shopped with before. That said,  given the income investing thread Mr Burns started a couple of weeks back, I'd say he is looking at TLS as a fully franked income stock rather than a trade. That said, if "Unholy Grails" has anything to say about position sizing and capital preservation risk management that might be of interest to Mr Burns. TLS currently represents a bit under 7% of the share portfolio I manage.




Hi Tinhat, I just read it on the weekend, the Kindle version. I think Burnsy would enjoy the read if nothing else...but lets wait and see what you think.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## notting (18 April 2012)

Can you guys please stop talking sense! 
This is the panic thread. 
No place for chat about Radge's World.  That's for the dull areas where real money is made.
Now back to it
http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/47074259/1


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> Mr.Burns, you really should have a read of Unholy Grails by Nick Radge. Take charge of your investments.
> 
> CanOZ




Ok bought, it'll take up to a month for delivery


----------



## CanOz (18 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Ok bought, it'll take up to a month for delivery




For an extra $5 you could have got it direct from TheChartist in 2 days, signed by Nick as well.

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> For an extra $5 you could have got it direct from TheChartist in 2 days, signed by Nick as well.
> 
> CanOz




Had a look at his web site, he offers managed funds, might be worth giving it a go.


----------



## young-gun (18 April 2012)

notting said:


> Can you guys please stop talking sense!
> This is the panic thread.
> No place for chat about Radge's World.  That's for the dull areas where real money is made.
> Now back to it
> http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/47074259/1




exactly notting!  the volatility is back! huge ups and huge downs may become the norm again. unpredictable would be an under-statement seems all central bank interference achieves now is a bit of market stability for which the duration is becoming shorter and shorter. dont get too excited about the rally today, it will no doubt be down tomorrow by as much on some negative news out of europe. let the fun begin


----------



## MrBurns (19 April 2012)

Rang Nick Radges office today and he answered the phone, nice guy, still not sure what to do I keep looking for the easy answer but there isn't one.


----------



## CanOz (19 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Rang Nick Radges office today and he answered the phone, nice guy, still not sure what to do I keep looking for the easy answer but there isn't one.




A good, validated strategy...Capital....and Time....lots of Time...

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (19 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> A good, validated strategy...Capital....and Time....lots of Time...
> 
> CanOz




I'm 61 so time isnt a luxury I have a lot of.


----------



## CanOz (19 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I'm 61 so time isnt a luxury I have a lot of.




LOL, then i guess Gav was right when he said "life is too short for Buy and Hold"!

Cheers,


CanOz
PS, I'm sure you'll outlive us all Mr.B!


----------



## MrBurns (19 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> LOL, then i guess Gav was right when he said "life is too short for Buy and Hold"!
> Cheers,
> CanOz
> PS, I'm sure you'll outlive us all Mr.B!




I think we can guess Gav's age from that comment.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (22 April 2012)

young-gun said:


> exactly notting!  the volatility is back! huge ups and huge downs may become the norm again. unpredictable would be an under-statement seems all central bank interference achieves now is a bit of market stability for which the duration is becoming shorter and shorter. dont get too excited about the rally today, it will no doubt be down tomorrow by as much on some negative news out of europe. let the fun begin




Friday's news out of Wall Street: http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/20/markets/stocks/index.htm Dow, S&P 500 finish higher on earnings boost - Apr. 20, 2012

Just a temporary stay of execution? Slim corporate profits but from a fat slice of companies - it's plausibly enough a precursor to the real downturn.

I certainly can't see a big upturn from here that justifies sticking around in the market for the next 6 months (as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and waiting for a better entry point).


----------



## young-gun (23 April 2012)

StumpyPhantom said:


> Friday's news out of Wall Street: http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/20/markets/stocks/index.htm Dow, S&P 500 finish higher on earnings boost - Apr. 20, 2012
> 
> Just a temporary stay of execution? Slim corporate profits but from a fat slice of companies - it's plausibly enough a precursor to the real downturn.
> 
> I certainly can't see a big upturn from here that justifies sticking around in the market for the next 6 months (as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and waiting for a better entry point).



indeed, I'll quite happily leave trading in 2012 to the pros i have a bad gut feeling about this year.


----------



## nulla nulla (24 April 2012)

Not a good night internationally. I small drop yesterday was probably Asian markets leading the rest off the world. Hopefully, for holders, we are not going to tank today.


----------



## Muschu (28 April 2012)

CanOz said:


> Mr.Burns, you really should have a read of Unholy Grails by Nick Radge. Take charge of your investments.
> 
> CanOZ




Just ordered my own copy. Very positive feedback.

Note:  I am a Radge subscriber of some years.  No regrets.


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

Muschu said:


> Just ordered my own copy. Very positive feedback.
> 
> Note:  I am a Radge subscriber of some years.  No regrets.




A subscriber rick or do you have money with him ?


----------



## notting (28 April 2012)

50% unemployment in Spanish youth.
Spending unable to be curbed as much as hoped, even with that and austerity!

It's funny I've heard a few start to say things like.
"Well inflation is what central banks are there to control, that's their job and their good at it.  So the printing should not be such a concern as it's consequences can be addressed.  The alternative of collapse of the global financial system is unthinkable."

Still for the life of me don't know why the same types were chanting cash was king during the GFC part 1.

A slow decline in developed world living standards whilst stocks climb?


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

notting said:


> .
> 
> A slow decline in developed world living standards whilst stocks climb?




It looks that way for now but not for long I suspect, every job lost reduces spending power and without that all companies will take a dive.


----------



## Muschu (28 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> A subscriber rick or do you have money with him ?




Just a subscriber.  I need "informed information" to work from.  ASF, alone, is not enough for me.


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

Muschu said:


> Just a subscriber.  I need "informed information" to work from.  ASF, alone, is not enough for me.




Is that a paid subscription ?

Why not actually put some money with him if he 's that good ?


----------



## Muschu (28 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Is that a paid subscription ?
> 
> Why not actually put some money with him if he 's that good ?




Of course it's a paid subsuscription and, imo, worth every cent.

As for putting "money with him" I consider that a viable option and one that may suit some people with less time to give to their own money management.  Perhaps I will make a decision in that dierection later.... 

I think somewhere in this thread you mentioned being 61.  I am quite some years older - not necessarily wiser.  I have preserved our capital and made gains.

Mr B.. If I may say... I get no sense of your own direction.  Sometimes decisions can be made even if they are later changed. 

Perhaps TDs are the best option for you at this time.  Capital preservation is not something I underestimate.

Best wishes

Rick


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

Thanks rick appreciate the insight into why you do what you do, I have only ever been a money maker not a money investor, hence I look and hopefully learn.


----------



## young-gun (1 May 2012)

notting said:


> A slow decline in developed world living standards whilst stocks climb?




Well put notting, they're fighting a losing battle, only question is how much longer can we kick the can? It's getting bigger, and the boots shrinking


----------



## qldfrog (7 May 2012)

Hum, I believe today might be the day: 
First a small fall in Oz today and  bigger on the way when the other markets open; wait and see...


----------



## CanOz (7 May 2012)

qldfrog said:


> Hum, I believe today might be the day:
> First a small fall in Oz today and  bigger on the way when the other markets open; wait and see...




Well, the French have certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.

CanOz


----------



## notting (7 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Well, the French have certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.




The market should have factored that in. It was pretty obvious.  He conceded within half an hour!!
Looks like the people are just going to push the socialist well-fair thing till their all bankrupt and money has no meaning any more.  
More printing for everyone.
Gold should actually start turning positive again, you'd think.


----------



## skc (7 May 2012)

notting said:


> The market should have factored that in. It was pretty obvious.  He conceded within half an hour!!
> Looks like the people are just going to push the socialist well-fair thing till their all bankrupt and money has no meaning any more.
> More printing for everyone.
> Gold should actually start turning positive again, you'd think.




Europe's down ~2% since Friday's close.... so probably not priced in I'd say.

We haven't had a triple digit fall for some time...


----------



## CanOz (7 May 2012)

notting said:


> The market should have factored that in. It was pretty obvious.  He conceded within half an hour!!
> Looks like the people are just going to push the socialist well-fair thing till their all bankrupt and money has no meaning any more.
> More printing for everyone.
> Gold should actually start turning positive again, you'd think.




LOL@the SPI & Notting..... i guess its not priced in!

CanOz


----------



## Tyler Durden (7 May 2012)

15 minutes after open and the All Ords is down 64 points.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 May 2012)

Two hours after open and the xao is down 78 points. I was expecting finance to drag it down about 60 points but it seems miners are the biggest contributor to the fasll with RIO down $2.48/3.82%. 

NAB & ANZ down worst of the big 4 banks. Go figure?


----------



## Knobby22 (7 May 2012)

I reckon its international investors trying to get out as the $A drops.
Hoping for a decent fall as I want to load up my margin loan.


----------



## CanOz (7 May 2012)

Knobby22 said:


> Hoping for a decent fall as I want to load up my margin loan.




That's a great idea.....obviously not received a margin call yet either:screwy:.

CanOz


----------



## notting (7 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> That's a great idea.....obviously not received a margin call yet either:screwy:.



Maybe a good idea to wait  little then it might be OK.  Novermber perhaps?


----------



## skc (7 May 2012)

skc said:


> Europe's down ~2% since Friday's close.... so probably not priced in I'd say.
> 
> We haven't had a triple digit fall for some time...




Just got there... -100.1 on XAO. That hurts a bit.


----------



## notting (7 May 2012)

skc said:


> Europe's down ~2% since Friday's close.... so probably not priced in I'd say.
> 
> We haven't had a triple digit fall for some time...




Yeah I know, emphasis on the word *should* have.
My shorts are doing brilliantly today which is my overall position so guess I thought the market was being a bit dumb.
But never underestimate her!!!
Just keeping a lazy eye on oil. The lower it goes the better it is for the pegged cheats and economies in general, especially something that may get the US a bit happy.  
But yeah not taking short profits just yet!!


----------



## qldfrog (8 May 2012)

Had it right for the ASX yesterday but wrong for Wall Street today:
hardly moved..., 
I wonder if it will ever go back to reality there.....we are back to pre GFC or nearly in the US  (but with a USD worth far less I admit..still..)
so might even bounce back here...


----------



## MrBurns (8 May 2012)

qldfrog said:


> Had it right for the ASX yesterday but wrong for Wall Street today:
> hardly moved...,
> I wonder if it will ever go back to reality there.....we are back to pre GFC or nearly in the US  (but with a USD worth far less I admit..still..)
> so might even bounce back here...




The whole thing is a mind game, it will probably jump a little then settle, the ASX never fails to disappoint.
I predict 30 points back up.

Any other pundits ?


----------



## Logique (8 May 2012)

notting said:


> ....But yeah not taking short profits just yet!!



Understandable, imho the risk remains to the downside. And in any case, falling domestic interest rates combined with a rental crisis, are as likely to stimulate the property market as shares.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 May 2012)

Logique said:


> Understandable, imho the risk remains to the downside. And in any case, falling domestic interest rates *combined with a rental crisis*, are as _likely to stimulate the property market_ as shares.




It's always nice to dream


----------



## zac (8 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> It's always nice to dream




I agree with that sentiment, the falling interest rates will aid the market improving.
How much so however thats the question.
The other effect of lower interest rates is that it lowers the demand for $AUD so will weaken it (time will tell), but this will be another positive for the markets making exports more affordable to others.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 May 2012)

It will also cause highly leveraged foreign property speculators to rush for the exists instead of combating both falling prices and a falling AUD destroying their "investment".


----------



## nulla nulla (8 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> It will also cause highly leveraged foreign property speculators to rush for the exists instead of combating both falling prices and a falling AUD destroying their "investment".




Most foreign property speculators in Australian REIT's were selling down their holdings when they had the combined advantage of an increased value AUD$ and rising share prices. If anything it took some liquidity out of the sector.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Most foreign property speculators in Australian REIT's were selling down their holdings when they had the combined advantage of an increased value AUD$ and rising share prices. If anything it took some liquidity out of the sector.




Source?


----------



## nulla nulla (8 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Source?




Constant monitoring and research in respect of the shares I regularly post on and invest/trade in. 
One of the easiest indicators to follow is notices posted in respect of increased/decreased substantial holdings.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 May 2012)

Okey, then what about those speculators who do not use REITs?


----------



## Chasero (8 May 2012)

qldfrog said:


> Had it right for the ASX yesterday but wrong for Wall Street today:
> hardly moved...,
> I wonder if it will ever go back to reality there.....we are back to pre GFC or nearly in the US  (but with a USD worth far less I admit..still..)
> so might even bounce back here...




Strange isn't it?

US markets a delayed reaction or are they shrugging it off?

Let's hope no more bumps this week... yesterday hurt.


----------



## nulla nulla (9 May 2012)

Chasero said:


> Strange isn't it?
> 
> US markets a delayed reaction or are they shrugging it off?
> 
> Let's hope no more bumps this week... yesterday hurt.




Another dip in the international markets overnight. If we fall, the boss has instructed me to start taking entries to trade the inevitable rebound.


----------



## Logique (9 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Another dip in the international markets overnight. If we fall, the boss has instructed me to start taking entries to trade the inevitable rebound.



Your boss doesn't lack bottle Nulla.


----------



## Logique (9 May 2012)

Meant to attach this to the post above.  US CBOE Volatility Index, 1Yr weekly.


----------



## Chasero (9 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Another dip in the international markets overnight. If we fall, the boss has instructed me to start taking entries to trade the inevitable rebound.




DOW down 1% and europe down ~1.5%. 

Long weekend for europe, but US markets delayed reactions are just weird. Better rebound tomorrow!


----------



## nulla nulla (9 May 2012)

Logique said:


> Your boss doesn't lack bottle Nulla.




Yep. We are back in and may the good lord have mercy on us.


----------



## skc (9 May 2012)

Does this current downleg feel more vicious than May 2011, or do I just have a very short term memory?

Sell in May, go away... so true.


----------



## CanOz (9 May 2012)

skc said:


> Does this current downleg feel more vicious than May 2011, or do I just have a very short term memory?
> 
> Sell in May, go away... so true.





It is true, statistically. Good article in this months TASC.


CanOz


----------



## newanimal (10 May 2012)

skc said:


> Sell in May, go away... so true.



nice 'saying'. Made a note of it in bold letters so I'll remember next year.



CanOz said:


> It is true, statistically. Good article in this months TASC.
> 
> 
> CanOz



and statistically how long till a turn around? Where can I find TASC article? OR what is TASC (technical analysis something I gather)?


----------



## newanimal (10 May 2012)

newanimal said:


> Where can I find TASC article? OR what is TASC (technical analysis something I gather)?



 disregard...found it


----------



## Tyler Durden (10 May 2012)

skc said:


> Does this current downleg feel more vicious than May 2011, or do I just have a very short term memory?
> 
> Sell in May, go away... so true.




One possible reason is this:

May

6 May: Second round of the French presidential elections (see 22 April entry). The results of the 22 April first round suggest  that the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, is on course for victory.

6 May: Greek general election. Polls close at 7pm local time, with exit polls released at the same time. Real-time results will start streaming approximately an hour later, and the first reliable country-wide estimate should be available around 10pm local time. If the results are a close call, the final outcome may not be known until the early hours of Monday. The last batch of polls was published on April 20th, ahead of the poll blackout period. These pointed to a picture that has remained remarkably consistent  throughout the last two months: a large number of undecideds (~20%), record-low support for the two traditional governmental parties (New Democracy and PASOK) and rising extremes on both the left and right. The ultimate result is sensitive to how the undecideds vote. Assuming a proportional allocation, New Democracy and PASOK should be able to secure a decent majority. Polls using a more sophisticated allocation technique point to an inability to form a government however. The bottom line is that the result is too close to call. 

6 May: German state election in Schleswig- Holstein. On recent opinion polls, the current conservative-liberal coalition will lose its majority despite the fact that the liberals will most likely exceed the 5% threshold to enter parliament again. A CDU/SPD grand coalition is a possible outcome. However, it is open which of the two parties will receive the most votes and subsequently appoint the leader of the grand coalition government.

6 and 7 May: First round of Italian local elections (second round on 20 and 21 May). This will be a first test to see the degree  of electoral support to those parties backing Monti’s government – nine million people are called to the polls (about a fifth of Italy’s total electors). The relative performance of the Northern League and Berlusconi’s PDL could be an interesting insight.  The two parties, which formed the core of the previous government, were unable to prevent and control the sovereign crisis.  Since then the PDL decided to support Monti’s government, contributing to avoid early elections, which would likely have had disastrous consequences for Italy. On the contrary, the Northern League opted to further increase its populist message and  move to the opposition against Monti. 

7 May: Germany to debate ESM. Parliamentary public hearing on the ESM Treaty.

8 May: Greece auction. Bills.

8 May: EFSF auction. Bills.

11 May: European Commission to release spring economic forecasts.

11 May: Italy auction. Bills.

13 May: German state election in NRW. The vote in NRW can be seen as an important test of the electorate’s political mood. The polls indicate that the SPD (around 38%) and the Greens (about 12%) may win a stable majority. The CDU has support  levels at about 33% in the polls. NRW’s CDU party leader Norbert RÃ¶ttgen may well achieve some 35% (roughly in line with national averages) but the Greens clearly have no preference for governing with him. Whether the liberals can clear the 5% hurdle remains to be seen. The election in NRW is the second-last state-level test before the national election in mid-September or October of 2013. In January 2013, state elections in Lower Saxony will expose the conservative-liberal camp to new risks (see German political update, Focus Europe, 23 March 2012).

14 May: Spain auction. Bills.

14 May: Italy auction. Bonds.

14-15 May: Eurogroup and ECOFIN finance ministers meetings.

15 May: Greece auction. Bills.

15 May: Flash Estimate EU and euro area GDP. Eurostat to publish preliminary estimates for Q1 2012 GDP.

17 May: Spain auction. Bonds.

22 May: Spain auction. Bills.

25 May: German parliament vote on Eurozone ‘Fiscal Compact’. The Fiscal Compact to strengthen budgetary discipline within the euro area will require a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, the upper house. Until now, cooperation between the coalition parties and the opposition has been smooth, underlining the pro-Europe sentiment. The SPD and the Greens are insisting on taxation of the financial sector and a growth package in return for their support. The latter fits into the broader debate on a European level, including modification of structural funds or even new financing  instruments such as project bonds. However, we do not feel this will pose a risk to the Fiscal Compact being approved as the opposition has no interest in sending such a signal to the EU. Most probably the compact’s approval will be linked to i) deciding on a growth pact by the end of the year and ii) agreeing on a roadmap for introducing additional taxation on the financial sector, or at least give the go-ahead for national solutions (see article on German politics in Focus Europe on 23 March).

28 May: Italy auction. Bonds.

29 May: Italy auction. Bills.

31 May: Irish referendum on Euro zone ‘Fiscal Compact’. A recent opinion poll put the support for the Fiscal Compact at 47% (down 2pp), the No vote at 35% (up 2pp) and 19% Don’t Know. This equates to a 58%:42% Yes:No ratio when the undecided votes are excluded. The concern is the still high level of undecided voters. Although Ireland is making good progress through its EU-IMF adjustment programme ”” the sixth review was recently passed successfully ”” a ‘No’ to the referendum could compromise Ireland’s access to ESM funding should a second loan programme be required. Although a second referendum is a theoretical possibility (Ireland has a history of rejecting EU referenda before accepting), taking away the safety net could be a significant blow to Irish bonds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete-upcoming-european-event-calendar


----------



## notting (13 May 2012)

Since Greece seems to be the most important thing in the world with respect to moving markets, I guess this is notable!
http://www.theage.com.au/world/confidence-in-greece-falters-as-coalition-talks-fail-20120512-1yjhp.html


----------



## Logique (15 May 2012)

O/N,
US down 1%, volatility up 9%.  Europe down 2%.

Now is the winter of our discontent. Again. 

Ugly, uglier than last year.


----------



## Tyler Durden (15 May 2012)

Logique said:


> O/N,
> US down 1%, volatility up 9%.  Europe down 2%.
> 
> Now is the winter of our discontent. Again.
> ...




Good. I'm loving it


----------



## MrBurns (16 May 2012)

With Greece dragging the market down wouldn't this be a good buy opportunity ?

I can't see Greece or any of Europe having a lasting effect on us, we are more Asia now.


----------



## CanOz (16 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> With Greece dragging the market down wouldn't this be a good buy opportunity ?
> 
> I can't see Greece or any of Europe having a lasting effect on us, we are more Asia now.




Got to be a wash out first, then a bounce, then another low...a higher low...be patient:nono:.

CanOz


----------



## Chasero (16 May 2012)

total bloodbath today.

I suspect the bigger boys are having field days and shorting every stock possible.

After the 2bn loss from goldman sachs was it? bet they are angry !! 

Lets hire media and shove greece in every headline possible


----------



## robz7777 (16 May 2012)

Chasero said:


> total bloodbath today.
> 
> I suspect the bigger boys are having field days and shorting every stock possible.
> 
> ...




JP Morgan I believe.. 

Even TLS is down, things must be getting really bad


----------



## notting (16 May 2012)

robz7777 said:


> Even TLS is down, things must be getting really bad




Profit taking to take advantage of some of todays SALES!



CanOz said:


> Got to be a wash out first, then a bounce, then another low...a higher low...be patient:nono:.




Good advice!


----------



## MrBurns (16 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Got to be a wash out first, then a bounce, then another low...a higher low...be patient:nono:.
> 
> CanOz




You mean lower low ???


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 May 2012)

Chasero said:


> total bloodbath today.
> 
> I suspect the bigger boys are having field days and shorting every stock possible.




oh dear! No "big boys" are _getting _short here.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (16 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> You mean lower low ???




A lower low is generally a bearish signal.  You want a series of higher highs and higher lows to indicate an upward trend in an index or stock price.  I'm sure one of the technical analysts floating around ASF can expand on this.


----------



## MrBurns (16 May 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> A lower low is generally a bearish signal.  You want a series of higher highs and higher lows to indicate an upward trend in an index or stock price.  I'm sure one of the technical analysts floating around ASF can expand on this.




Thanks, no need to expand, that enough for me


----------



## skc (16 May 2012)

Chasero said:


> total bloodbath today.
> 
> I suspect the bigger boys are having field days and shorting every stock possible.
> 
> ...




Imagine there's a big storm and there is a small fish in the ocean. The small fish says... those big ships must be having a field day playing in the water.


----------



## Chasero (16 May 2012)

skc said:


> Imagine there's a big storm and there is a small fish in the ocean. The small fish says... those big ships must be having a field day playing in the water.




The small fishies might still be in the ocean, or relaxing in a nice little aquarium somewhere 

It's up to them if they want to be swimming with the big boys.


----------



## CanOz (16 May 2012)

Good grief!!:fish::fish::fish::rocketwho


----------



## Logique (16 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Got to be a wash out first, then a bounce, then another low...a higher low...be patient:nono:.
> CanOz



Yep.  A story in the media this afternoon about a super fund going belly up, didn't catch all of it, but  it won't help sentiment. Anyone following?


----------



## MrBurns (16 May 2012)

Logique said:


> Yep.  A story in the media this afternoon about a super fund going belly up, didn't catch all of it, but won't help sentiment. Anyone following?




If I was in one that would be it


----------



## nulla nulla (16 May 2012)

Ouch, was expecting a dip between 20 - 40 points. Didn't expect miners to get sold down this much or tls and the property sector.


----------



## skc (16 May 2012)

The financials XFJ have only fallen 5% from the recent peak, while the materials XMJ has gone -14% this month. XSO small orgs down about the same.

Now will the financials reach down and catch the materials or the other way round?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 May 2012)

I've lost my winnings and will be out.

gg


----------



## MrBurns (16 May 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've lost my winnings and will be out.
> 
> gg




I hope it won't be domestic chamapagne for you gg, I'll send you a case of Krug Clos d’Ambonnay 1995 to tide you over if need be


----------



## nulla nulla (16 May 2012)

skc said:


> The financials XFJ have only fallen 5% from the recent peak, while the materials XMJ has gone -14% this month. XSO small orgs down about the same.
> 
> Now will the financials reach down and catch the materials or the other way round?




Personaly I would like to think not because the financials never seemed to get the support that lifted materials to the extent they were. I expected materials to come back to similar levels as financial to some extent, but not as quickly as they have. 

Perspective of concern is where financials are impacted by the eurozone fiasco, materials are generally impacted more by whats happening in china. The present materials fall appears a bit exagerated. It isn't like the chinese economy is going into reverse, yet, more that their rate of growth has slowed slightly. 

The market is skittish atm to say the least.


----------



## qldfrog (16 May 2012)

when headline is closer IMF scrutiny on the big four here in Oz, I would not bet the banks will stay safe for long; Completed a sell out of them completely last week..
wait and see


----------



## StumpyPhantom (16 May 2012)

qldfrog said:


> when headline is closer IMF scrutiny on the big four here in Oz, I would not bet the banks will stay safe for long; Completed a sell out of them completely last week..
> wait and see




Banks all round are in strife (or perceived to be, I think).  Came across a news line today that Greeks withdrew something like 700 million Euros from banks in the last little while (week, I think).

If the run on banks has started, then there will be nothing orderly about default, nor will contagion be contained, at least in the short term.  All the banks owe each other money and once they freeze to each other, this is the collapse that started GFC Mark I.

If you can still pull out to sit on the sidelines, it would be a spectacle.  Otherwise, hang on tight.  Only room in there for the crazy-brave ATM


----------



## drsmith (16 May 2012)

TED Spread at this stage is unmoved.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 May 2012)

OMG its the end of the world again.


Again


Again


Again


----------



## nulla nulla (17 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I hope it won't be domestic chamapagne for you gg, I'll send you a case of Krug Clos d’Ambonnay 1995 to tide you over if need be




If it doesn't come in a four (4) litre cask, gg might have a problem opening it.


----------



## wayneL (17 May 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> OMG its the end of the world again.
> 
> 
> Again
> ...



Nah...

All is well, sunshine and lollipops all round.


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 May 2012)

wayneL said:


> Nah...
> 
> All is well, sunshine and lollipops all round.




Yaaaawwwwnnnnnn..

I love the smell of freshly printed Euros in the morning.

*sniff*

Duh, not pungent enough yet to come out of the cave.

zzz.zzzzzz...


----------



## StumpyPhantom (17 May 2012)

Aussiejeff said:


> Yaaaawwwwnnnnnn..
> 
> I love the smell of freshly printed Euros in the morning.
> 
> ...




+1.

No short term resolution to the current headlines.  The Greek elections will take another month and, guess what, if the electorate thinks no-one took its significant shift to the Left seriously enough, it will make a more emphatic statement next time around (just like everyone in Australia is waiting to make an emphatic statement at the next election about emphatic statements the PM made at the last election).

The irony is the pain to be felt by the previous government's austerity measures is likely to be felt many times over by the Left heading for a Exit, but voters will always choose avoiding short-term pain.

So the Greek exit is a near certainty.  What's not clear is the contagion effect, but if the (already started) run from the banks becomes a sprint, then the contagion effect will precede the Greek exit (and be multiplied by it when it happens).


----------



## skc (17 May 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> OMG its the end of the world again.
> 
> 
> Again
> ...




We much be getting closer to being correct right? By that time I'd be an absolute genius. The post apocalypse zombies will worship me like a God.

Although I must admit that may feel somewhat meaningless.


----------



## Chasero (17 May 2012)

Isn't there a facebook IPO this week in the U.S.? 

Tomorrow? Next week?

Won't be surprised to see a bit of a relief rally from this


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2012)

Chasero said:


> Isn't there a facebook IPO this week in the U.S.?
> 
> Tomorrow? Next week?
> 
> Won't be surprised to see a bit of a relief rally from this




I was thinking this is the relief rally

CanOz


----------



## Gundini (17 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> I was thinking this is the relief rally
> 
> CanOz




Was thinking the same thing. It is written in the charts: 

"The relief rally we had to have "


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2012)

Blue = Rally

Yup, its a rally...for the moment.

CanOz


----------



## skc (17 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Blue = Rally
> 
> Yup, its a rally...for the moment.
> 
> CanOz




The rally is pretty much over in Asia now.

HSI ~300 pts off the day's high.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 May 2012)

skc said:


> The rally is pretty much over in Asia now.
> 
> HSI ~300 pts off the day's high.




Can you see into the future? :kiffer:

Only 243 off


----------



## Chasero (17 May 2012)

I refuse to believe that this is the relief rally! 

Hoping for +50-100 points at least!!


----------



## nulla nulla (18 May 2012)

I expect the banks to fall further today. Wouldn't surprise me to see a big sell off in the afternoon across the bourse as the more nervous (or smart) pull their money out ahead of the weekend. 

To buy or not to buy?


----------



## StumpyPhantom (18 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> I expect the banks to fall further today. Wouldn't surprise me to see a big sell off in the afternoon across the bourse as the more nervous (or smart) pull their money out ahead of the weekend.
> 
> To buy or not to buy?




If you were to buy today, would it be in financials?


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

Wouldn't it be funny if this were a 'Black' Friday and FB is listing!

CanOz


----------



## Chasero (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Wouldn't it be funny if this were a 'Black' Friday and FB is listing!
> 
> CanOz




Shares gonna be sold off today.. bounce on Monday imo.

Facebook listing tomorrow.. hope it goes well!


----------



## young-gun (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Wouldn't it be funny if this were a 'Black' Friday and FB is listing!
> 
> CanOz




I would like to know how Facebook intends on sustaining their exponential growth. Its not a stock that interests me in the slightest(not that I trade us markets anyway). 

Looks like we're headed deeper into the red today.. Xjo down.. 40 points?? Possibly worse with an arvo sell off as someone else noted. Now that I've called down its safe for you all to buy, green for sure.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (18 May 2012)

Facebook is just another 'muppet suck' - taking $100Billion out of the economy into the hands of a few - it's not good for the market generally looking for liquidity?

Still, wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce rally any day now......


----------



## Aussiejeff (18 May 2012)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Facebook is just another 'muppet suck' - taking $100Billion out of the economy into the hands of a few - it's not good for the market generally looking for liquidity?
> 
> Still, wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce rally any day now......




Apparently the predicted market cap after IPO at just over US$104 Billion will be over 100 times their trailing earnings. 

What real, tangible products do they actually _produce_? Oh, vapourware? APPware? 

Can you live on a diet of APPS if the fan gets chucked into the cesspit? LOL

IMHO that US$100+ Billion would be better spent propping up companies that actually grow or make tangible products. 

Ah well, some feel-good medicine for Mr Market & his band The Speculators in the short term prolly.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 May 2012)

StumpyPhantom said:


> If you were to buy today, would it be in financials?




Not the banks thats for sure.


----------



## young-gun (18 May 2012)

Aussiejeff said:


> Apparently the predicted market cap after IPO at just over US$104 Billion will be over 100 times their trailing earnings.
> 
> What real, tangible products do they actually _produce_? Oh, vapourware? APPware?
> 
> ...




+1. I honestly think it is just going to be a fad and once the hype is over people will regret making zuckerberg the second richest man in America. That's not to discredit what he has achieved. I just can't see these shares rocketing to unimaginable heights.

Big tank today again, few very grumpy fellas at work today;-)


----------



## xyzedarteerf (18 May 2012)

Hi all,
not sure about anyone else..but I had a firesale 2 weeks ago...seems to be just in time as well looking at todays results, anyway staying in the side lines for now.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (18 May 2012)

xyzedarteerf said:


> Hi all,
> not sure about anyone else..but I had a firesale 2 weeks ago...seems to be just in time as well looking at todays results, anyway staying in the side lines for now.




Same here, I cashed in a very very overweight position on GMG (a large chunk of my SMSF worth about $240k) at $3.70 just last week.  It got 4 cents higher at the end of the day, and has been tanking ever since.

Finished today in the $3.30s.


----------



## LifeChoices (18 May 2012)

Oh crap.

I thought I was getting quite good at catching knives. I bought some BHP yesterday. I thought I was clever, told everyone at work to sell their worldy possessions, family, dogs and buy.

When is this dead cat bounce coming.

I hope I don't have to pull my kids out of their private schools.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (18 May 2012)

LifeChoices said:


> Oh crap.
> 
> I thought I was getting quite good at catching knives. I bought some BHP yesterday. I thought I was clever, told everyone at work to sell their worldy possessions, family, dogs and buy.
> 
> ...




I take it you're jesting with what's at stake?  Otherwise, psychologically preparing yourself for the 'dead cat' this weekend is going to be critical.  That is, sell on ANY bounce!

Commodities won't be trending up any time soon, not even BHP.  Good luck! Make sure you take some time out to watch Avengers or something.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (22 May 2012)

LifeChoices said:


> Oh crap.
> 
> I thought I was getting quite good at catching knives. I bought some BHP yesterday. I thought I was clever, told everyone at work to sell their worldy possessions, family, dogs and buy.
> 
> ...




A couple of good days on the ASX!!

Phew, what a relief - it's amazing how this turns up the mood.

But this thread is here for a reason.  And it's important that one's mood doesn't run with the crowd.

I'll bet Mr/Ms LifeChoices is feeling better than when she/he made the above post.

So is anyone treating this as a dead cat bounce and selling out, going to cash and sitting on the sidelines to await a 25%-40% discount before getting back in?

Grateful anyone's thoughts who can persuade me to swim against the tide and do just that...


----------



## Julia (22 May 2012)

Stumpy, maybe ask yourself why the rally today?
What has actually changed?


----------



## StumpyPhantom (22 May 2012)

Julia said:


> Stumpy, maybe ask yourself why the rally today?
> What has actually changed?




I did try to 'drill down' into that half way through the day.  Wall Street did well because apparently the pro-austerity party in Greece is getting a 'bounce' in the polls, reportedly because the Greek electorate is realising that the Left (anti-austerity) is making soothing promises that will ultimately lead to disaster.  That sounds pretty familiar.

But that's the whole point, I suppose.  Even if the Left lose out, this is all just kicking the can down the road.  We've been in 'kick can down the road' for almost 4 years now...

When, just when does one pull the plug??


----------



## zac (22 May 2012)

Julia has a good point.
Why the rally?
Given the global economy we have as such now, it can take good or bad news from anywhere to make a significant impact.

Australian markets seem to correlate with whatever the American markets do. (Not always) and my point i was going to make was to highlight how irrational they can be.
Ie just last week, positive US data, good earnings etc indicating a slow but improving economy, yet because of Greece it got slammed.

This is also why I cant understand how Technical Analysts can have such conviction in their charting.


----------



## MrBurns (22 May 2012)

I think it's just a dead cat bounce, it's still trending down TLS for instance is way below what it was a week ago, only bad news can come out of Europe even if the pro austerity supporters win the election, this is a slow decline with the odd ounce.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (22 May 2012)

zac said:


> This is also why I cant understand how Technical Analysts can have such conviction in their charting.




Maybe it's because the bulk of the trading population out there are reading tea leaves (er.. folowing the same charts).  So it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy when something reaches a fibonacci level or something.

I've asked an Elliott Wave theorist to come out from under their rock on another thread but so far haven't heard anything.

Maybe they're digging into their archives to find a theory to explain what just happened...

I might re-start that theory with something from left field just to jerk them into saying something.


----------



## zac (22 May 2012)

Yeah I agree with that, ie the bad news scenario.
Unless the ECB comes out and says its printing more money and doing a bail out, I cant see how anything else will be good for the markets.


----------



## CanOz (22 May 2012)

zac said:


> Julia has a good point.
> Why the rally?
> Given the global economy we have as such now, it can take good or bad news from anywhere to make a significant impact.
> 
> ...




When are people going to realize that the talking heads :karaoke: wrap the news around what is happening in the markets....not the other way around:shake:. Why are we having a rally? Because the sellers dried up and buyers stepped in to cover shorts quickly and take positions to unload after this bounce is over.

You lot are worse than Bloomberg...one minute Bloomberg is saying markets are falling because of Greece default fears, then we have a small 30 minute rally and they say we're up because of Greece bailout hopes....Unbelievable!!!

The market moves because of what is going on inside the market. Whatever news you may hear, 90% is already known and priced in or being priced in. Big shifts in sentiment caused by the interpretation of macro data can shift the balance, but little rumors don't. Do you wonder why the media has gone hush on Greece...the market is bouncing and they've got F'all to talk about!! Watch...when we finally drop like a rock again in a few days, they'll be all over the Greece thing again.

If you don't believe me, and can't read a chart, spend 12 months in front of a bloody screen and observe the auction process....and tell me otherwise. 

CanOz


----------



## brty (22 May 2012)

CanOz, nice rant, yet yesterday I went long in a few issues because of the behavior of the market, it reached some buy points.
If the news is telling you to sell for a million reasons, yet prices stabilise and go up, go with the market not the news.

My expectation of my long positions is only short term, yet I will let my system tell me when I am wrong, or take outsized profits should they eventuate.
When Goldman says sell, they already have, in a week or two they may say buy. The news tends to follow what the big boys say, not what the market does.


----------



## zac (23 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> When are people going to realize that the talking heads :karaoke: wrap the news around what is happening in the markets....not the other way around:shake:. Why are we having a rally? Because the sellers dried up and buyers stepped in to cover shorts quickly and take positions to unload after this bounce is over.




I should have used to word reports instead of News.
Media only report on what has happened not what is going to happen even though they like to think they are in the know future wise.

For example today Japans credit rating got down graded and the Yen weakend immediately as a result.

Id love to learn the art but I just cant figure out how T/A can be so reliable given reports often change the outcome of daily markets.


----------



## CanOz (23 May 2012)

zac said:


> For example today Japans credit rating got down graded and the Yen weakend immediately as a result.




So did the ES, the DAX etc...but they absorbed all that selling like it wasn't there and rallied more....

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1 (23 May 2012)

StumpyPhantom said:


> Maybe it's because the bulk of the trading population out there are reading tea leaves (er.. folowing the same charts).  So it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy when something reaches a fibonacci level or something.
> 
> I've asked an Elliott Wave theorist to come out from under their rock on another thread but so far haven't heard anything.
> 
> ...




Stumpy......how about *you* first put up a robust , none-subjective, regime for trading and we'll give it the eye over.....maybe you could also road-test it in front of us, that is, forward test it......then, maybe, you can walk with heavy feet and brandish a large knowledge stick and it us over the head with it.......

you could lead the way and inspire everyone

looking forward to your work

thanks in advance


----------



## young-gun (23 May 2012)

Julia said:


> Stumpy, maybe ask yourself why the rally today?
> What has actually changed?




Nothing. The only thing that changes is the severity of the negative data released.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 May 2012)

It appears that a news report was released after the close of the FTSE & DAX but shortly before the close of the DOW where-in it is reported that the former Greek President has advised that Greece is preparing to leave the Euro. 

Subsequent to the release of the report, the DOW went from 75 points up to 1 point down at close.

Will our market react to this report in a similar fashion as the DOW or will we treat the information as "already factored in"?


----------



## notting (23 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> It appears that a news report was released after the close of the FTSE & DAX but shortly before the close




The Greek announcement of seriously considering leaving the Euro is just a political stunt to freak the Greeks (and Germans who would have to take on a trillion dollar hair cut), if Greece leaves, so that will help voting for Euroland rather than against austerity for the Greeks, and convince Germans to accept the other timely announcement - being -
*The ECB talks about a Eurobond for the first time as if it is on the cards!*!
This is actually the signal for the *big buy*.
It's over!!!!!!!!
Markets may take a bit of time before they get it!!
China is still an issue with Euro contraction and falling against the US$ - Euro buying power reduced.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 May 2012)

XAO at 4129.8 (minus 43.7) at 1:00pm. Was 4119.5 (down 53.6) earlier. SYD looked like a buy opportunity at $2.81 IMO, could prove wrong.


----------



## stacks (23 May 2012)

notting said:


> The Greek announcement of seriously considering leaving the Euro is just a political stunt to freak the Greeks (and Germans who would have to take on a trillion dollar hair cut), if Greece leaves, so that will help voting for Euroland rather than against austerity for the Greeks, and convince Germans to accept the other timely announcement - being -
> *The ECB talks about a Eurobond for the first time as if it is on the cards!*!
> This is actually the signal for the *big buy*.
> It's over!!!!!!!!
> ...




Eurobonds without a binding fiscal and political union?? Cant see how that could end well


----------



## young-gun (23 May 2012)

notting said:


> The Greek announcement of seriously considering leaving the Euro is just a political stunt to freak the Greeks (and Germans who would have to take on a trillion dollar hair cut), if Greece leaves, so that will help voting for Euroland rather than against austerity for the Greeks, and convince Germans to accept the other timely announcement - being -
> *The ECB talks about a Eurobond for the first time as if it is on the cards!*!
> This is actually the signal for the * .*



*

What is the deal with these Eurobonds? I'm assuming all countries in the euro go in together to obviously form one bond that can be traded? This would lower the yields expected of struggling indebted nations, but wouldn't it raise yields for countries like germany as there would still be a greater risk associated with them(the Eurobond)?*


----------



## stacks (23 May 2012)

young-gun said:


> What is the deal with these Eurobonds? I'm assuming all countries in the euro go in together to obviously form one bond that can be traded? This would lower the yields expected of struggling indebted nations, but wouldn't it raise yields for countries like germany as there would still be a greater risk associated with them(the Eurobond)?



Pretty much. I cant see Germany ever agreeing to them, without control over what the poorer countries do with their budgets. And we have all seen what happens when Germany has tried to exert some control over Greeces budget.


----------



## notting (23 May 2012)

stacks said:


> And we have all seen what happens when Germany has tried to exert some control over Greeces budget.




What did we see? A Mexican stand off?


----------



## young-gun (23 May 2012)

stacks said:


> Pretty much. I cant see Germany ever agreeing to them, without control over what the poorer countries do with their budgets. And we have all seen what happens when Germany has tried to exert some control over Greeces budget.




sounds like a pretty poor deal for some. as you say, why would anyone(not just germany) agree to such a proposal if it were to affect them in a negative way. I guess the only reason to agree to such an idea would come down to how badly you want to save the euro. even if it were to go ahead(which it wont) i can't see this fixing the problem, it would simply spread the issue right across the eurozone. would be funny to see yields hit 7% on euro-bonds, then what?

any stock that seems like a bargain today, will undoubtedly become a super mega bargain in the coming months

that is if C/Bankers stay out, any predictions as to how far away the printing presses are? im giving it 2 months max.


----------



## Julia (23 May 2012)

One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/
Here he is discussing the ponzi scheme that has to come to an end.

It's quite long, almost an hour, but absolutely worth a listen imo.



> Have we spent too much for too long ? Are the clever financial instruments that were supposed to prop up the system starting to buckle? According to economist Satyajit Das we're in a botox economy where things have been desperately covered up to conceal the truth. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, he says, are just the front carriages in an impending financial train wreck. Also on board, he believes, are all the world’s major economies. It’s a pessimistic and sobering perspective on the consequences of too much debt.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 May 2012)

young-gun said:


> any stock that seems like a bargain today, will undoubtedly become a super mega bargain in the coming months




Perhaps, perhaps not....i brought 2 stocks today.

Time will tell all.


----------



## CanOz (23 May 2012)

Julia said:


> One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/
> Here he is discussing the ponzi scheme that has to come to an end.
> ...




He's one of my favs too Julia, i heard him on the Bloomy one day and bought his book, "Extreme Money and the Cult of Risk". He's actually quite funny too.

CanOz


----------



## notting (23 May 2012)

young-gun said:


> Then what?
> any stock that seems like a bargain today, will undoubtedly become a super mega bargain in the coming months



Yeah, still one hell of sell off is shaping up.  However, the *Then what* is an important question that everyone kind of shrugs their sholders and looks at the ceiling to. The Euro can fail and go back to individual printing presses and the US will probably need to print to limit the deflationary damage, to do the same.  Or the Europeans craft a long term plan to save the Eurozone and try to merge fiscal policy slowly and torcherously and crawl toward the Eurobond after the Project Bond or what ever else they invent runs it's course, and print that and the US will probably print to limit deflationary damage.
It's not that hard.  Just takes a bit of time, things will just get more expensive over the longer term which will be good for things other than cash.


----------



## stacks (23 May 2012)

Julia said:


> One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/
> Here he is discussing the ponzi scheme that has to come to an end.
> ...




Definitely. But as has been proven time and time again, there are people with lots of power who see deflation as the ultimate failure and will do (or be persuaded to do) anything to prevent it.

If left up to politicians/bankers theres no doubt they could easily plan 'a sustainable way forward'. (which will blow up again next year and the year after that, and the year after that....etc)  But sometimes the people in charge dont seem to remember that they still live in a democratic society, where the people DO have a say.


----------



## stacks (23 May 2012)

notting said:


> Yeah, still one hell of sell off is shaping up.  However, the *Then what* is an important question that everyone kind of shrugs their sholders and looks at the ceiling to. The Euro can fail and go back to individual printing presses and the US will probably need to print to limit the deflationary damage, to do the same.  Or the Europeans craft a long term plan to save the Eurozone and try to merge fiscal policy slowly and torcherously and crawl toward the Eurobond after the Project Bond or what ever else they invent runs it's course, and print that and the US will probably print to limit deflationary damage.
> It's not that hard.  Just takes a bit of time, things will just get more expensive over the longer term which will be good for things other than cash.




So you think inflation will be the big problem that investors should be concerned with?

To be fair, are you talking next month, next year, or next decade?


----------



## stacks (24 May 2012)

notting said:


> What did we see? A Mexican stand off?



ahhhh, no.

The people spoke up, they dont like being dictated to by Germany, their requests for austerity were too much. They spoke up the only real way they could, that would be listened to, they voted.


----------



## numbercruncher (24 May 2012)

All you have to do is put your self in the other parties shoes .....


Lets say all our Chickens came home to Roost and Australia was overwhelmed by debt and the Germans were appointed our Austerity Sugar Daddy's - would we tolerate that after all we have been through even in some peoples living memory ....

Me thinks not 

You would tell them to take their debt and shovel it up their Snauzer's  - more the fool them for lending it in the first place !


----------



## young-gun (24 May 2012)

stacks said:


> ahhhh, no.
> 
> The people spoke up, they dont like being dictated to by Germany, their requests for austerity were too much. They spoke up the only real way they could, that would be listened to, they voted.




I bet most of these people are the same ones that have been jumping up an down for the past 30 years demanding money be spent on better roads, better schools, better health, better transport and so on. Probably the same people that have been dodging taxes in some way for the past 30 years. 

The large majority deserve what they are getting. Governments only spend to please and support the people. Can't have your cake n eat it too! Nations living on debt = this will end up happening. Germany has every right to dictate the terms.


----------



## notting (24 May 2012)

stacks said:


> ahhhh, no.
> they voted.




For nothing!

The polls are now reading that austerity will win in the second round of voting!

What has actually happened is that the public are starting to understand that it is better than going back out of the Eurozone, especially with increased runs on banks etc.
The politicians are finding it harder to fool them with fairy dust and bribes to take power.

The Europeans are also looking like softening the austerity approach.  Euro looks safe for today!


----------



## McLovin (24 May 2012)

notting said:


> For nothing!
> 
> The polls are now reading that austerity will win in the second round of voting!
> 
> ...




This is how I see it too. Greeks want to stay in the euro but they don't want to have to pay back the money they owe. In time gone past all they had to do was protest and complain and the Greek government would back down, hence we are the situation we are in; they're not used to tough decisions being made.



> You can't always get what you want
> But if you try sometimes well you might find
> *You get what you need*




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZOlL6pPq4E

And just because I'm in a 70's music mood, Frau Merkel's first name is Layla and Derek and the Dominos are the Greeks...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th3ycKQV_4k

Completely OT but the coda at the end of that song is brilliant.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (24 May 2012)

I would bet any amount of money there will be no eurobonds. The whole concept is just bizarre, Germans would revolt in their streets.

Personally though, I have no idea what will happen. Greeks don't want out of the euro - and if I am not mistaken, there is no scope in the treaty for anyone to be kicked out of the euro, and yet I cannot understand how Greece will continue to function in the euro.

Fun times.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Personally though, I have no idea what will happen. Greeks don't want out of the euro - and if I am not mistaken, there is no scope in the treaty for anyone to be kicked out of the euro, and yet I cannot understand how Greece will continue to function in the euro.




They want to stay because then their problems are everyone else's. If they go outside they will have huge inflation problems over night and they have no industry or exports to trade their way out. For them its better to stay and get Germany to help them.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (25 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> They want to stay because then their problems are everyone else's. If they go outside they will have huge inflation problems over night and they have no industry or exports to trade their way out. For them its better to stay and get Germany to help them.




To be fair though - and bailouts aside, it's clearly more advantageous for Greece (and Greeks realise this) to fix it's problems now than continue with the corruption and public waste and an uncompetitive economy.

Regardless how much a country exports, currency devaluation is not a good way to go to gain competitiveness.


----------



## wayneL (25 May 2012)

According to an economist on the radio yesterday, it will be bad for Greece no matter what they do. But he thinks exiting the Euro will ultimately have advantages for Greece, but staying in will mean taking all the pain with none of the advantages.

Curiously, 77% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, which goes to TH's point.

As for me, I'm just in popcorn eating mode... wouldn't have a clue. But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (25 May 2012)

wayneL said:


> According to an economist on the radio yesterday, it will be bad for Greece no matter what they do. But he thinks exiting the Euro will ultimately have advantages for Greece, but staying in will mean taking all the pain with none of the advantages.
> 
> Curiously, 77% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, which goes to TH's point.
> 
> As for me, I'm just in popcorn eating mode... wouldn't have a clue. But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.




If the Greek Parliament hangs again on 17 June, they're just going to send the NATO troops in aren't they?


----------



## Junior (25 May 2012)

If Greece leaves the Euro and floats their own currency...would this just effectively hand control of a new currency to their government again?  Meaning they could revert back to old habits of excessive government spending, potentially resulting in serious inflationary issues and devastating currency devaluation.  Wouldn't be pretty.


----------



## Logique (25 May 2012)

Oh the historical irony!



> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations
> World War I reparations were the payments and transfers of property and equipment that Germany was forced to make under the Treaty of Versailles (1919) following its defeat during World War I. ...
> 
> ...Consequently their only way of paying back the debt was in devalued Gold Marks which ultimately led to the hyperinflation; ...
> ...


----------



## McCoy Pauley (25 May 2012)

wayneL said:


> According to an economist on the radio yesterday, it will be bad for Greece no matter what they do. But he thinks exiting the Euro will ultimately have advantages for Greece, but staying in will mean taking all the pain with none of the advantages.
> 
> Curiously, 77% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, which goes to TH's point.
> 
> As for me, I'm just in popcorn eating mode... wouldn't have a clue. But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.




That's the problem with economists.  Ask 10 economists for their opinions, and you'll get 11 responses.

To wit, Adam Carr, now the Eureka Report's economist in residence, wrote an article for the Eureka Report earlier this week (IIRC) outlining some interesting reasons why the Greeks can't afford to exit the Euro.  Quite an interesting read, but as for who will prove correct over time, only the gods know.


----------



## wayneL (25 May 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> That's the problem with economists.  Ask 10 economists for their opinions, and you'll get 11 responses.
> 
> To wit, Adam Carr, now the Eureka Report's economist in residence, wrote an article for the Eureka Report earlier this week (IIRC) outlining some interesting reasons why the Greeks can't afford to exit the Euro.  Quite an interesting read, but as for who will prove correct over time, only the gods know.




Very true, but I can only reiterate my earlier point.... IMO of course.



			
				The Oracle of Hawkes Bay :) said:
			
		

> But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.


----------



## cynic (25 May 2012)

Julia said:


> One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.



+1

I attended a presentation by him a couple of months ago. He gave a very entertaining dissertation (without jargon) that explained why the global economy is in it's current state, and outlined some well considered strategies for addressing the issues. He somehow managed to maintain an "ear to ear" grin whilst explaining just how dire the global economic situation truly is.


----------



## NewToTheTrade (26 May 2012)

DOW down on friday.


----------



## So_Cynical (26 May 2012)

NewToTheTrade said:


> DOW down on friday.




Closed @ 12454 ~ And yet still way above the 12 month low of 10655


----------



## CanOz (26 May 2012)

I reckon we'll see 3800 again on the XAO before August...

CanOz


----------



## So_Cynical (26 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> I reckon we'll see 3800 again on the XAO before August...
> 
> CanOz




Thinking about it....with the DOW at 12454 there is plenty of scope for a 1000 pt fall or more...and we know what the flow on effects of that will be on our markets.

So even though our market is already near the bottom of the 12 month channel...if the DOW goes under we will certainly follow to new post GFC low...lows. 

A proper second dip more than 3 years after the first dip.


----------



## StumpyPhantom (26 May 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Thinking about it....with the DOW at 12454 there is plenty of scope for a 1000 pt fall or more...and we know what the flow on effects of that will be on our markets.
> 
> So even though our market is already near the bottom of the 12 month channel...if the DOW goes under we will certainly follow to new post GFC low...lows.
> 
> A proper second dip more than 3 years after the first dip.




+1 Agree.

And if the economic indicators in the US (at best currently neutral with housing having a good couple of months) turn down, the dive in the DOW will be excruciating.


----------



## CanOz (26 May 2012)

If copper is the bellwether then lookout below.


From the Technical Speculator...


Market Minute: May 25, 2012: Copper and global markets rollover
Following the May 9th Market Minute titled "Downward trend starts", global markets are continuing to rollover. Copper, often referred to as a bellwether indicator on the broader economy, is also declining. The peak in copper prices was in early 2011 and it has dropped steadily over the past year.

The Dow Jones World Stock Index is closely following the trend of the red metal. Global markets have also crested in the first half of 2011.

Copper prices are forming a multi-year reversal pattern. This Head-and-Shoulders formation suggests that the metal will move below $3.25 in Q3 and eventually reach a downside target of $2.25. 

Bottom line: Copper prices still need to decline below $3.25 before the reversal pattern is complete. Nevertheless, the probability of lower numbers over the summer is high. Given that metal prices have already dropped over a dollar in the last year, this reflection on the world economy implies slower growth in the months ahead...

http://http://www.technicalspeculator.com/

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1 (26 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> If copper is the bellwether then lookout below.
> 
> Copper prices are forming a multi-year reversal pattern.




ok, i'll see your copper and raise you a 19Billion Euro bailout over the weekend........can't say fairer than that

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18216793
 26 May 2012 Last updated at 04:20 GMT



> Spain's Bankia to explain call for 19bn-euro bailout




.........on top of



> Two weeks ago, the government intervened and awarded Bankia a 4.47bn-euro loan




................


----------



## young-gun (26 May 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> ok, i'll see your copper and raise you a 19Billion Euro bailout over the weekend........can't say fairer than that
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18216793
> 26 May 2012 Last updated at 04:20 GMT
> ...




I'd be folding... wonder how many investors/traders are gonna be taking their bat and ball next week.


----------



## Logique (27 May 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Thinking about it....with the DOW at 12454 there is plenty of scope for a 1000 pt fall or more...and we know what the flow on effects of that will be on our markets.
> So even though our market is already near the bottom of the 12 month channel...if the DOW goes under we will certainly follow to new post GFC low...lows.
> A proper second dip more than 3 years after the first dip.



Indeed. If 12,000 doesn't hold, then all bets are off. Very easily test 11,000 from there.


----------



## qldfrog (27 May 2012)

young-gun said:


> I'd be folding... wonder how many investors/traders are gonna be taking their bat and ball next week.



just a feeling but I believe from Tuesday onwards, we will see a carnage, last chance to get out tomorrow before the US set the tone
Cash and gold IMHO


----------



## Struzball (28 May 2012)

young-gun said:


> I'd be folding... wonder how many investors/traders are gonna be taking their bat and ball next week.




I'd say the smart money is already out, hence the almost 10% drop in May.
We won't see any more carnage until the not-so-smart money starts getting out.

I'm guessing slow falls over the next couple of weeks until the penny drops and _then _there will be panic.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 May 2012)

Struzball said:


> I'd say the smart money is already out, hence the almost 10% drop in May.
> We won't see any more carnage until the not-so-smart money starts getting out.
> 
> I'm guessing slow falls over the next couple of weeks until the penny drops and _then _there will be panic.




I still haven't worked out whether it is the smart money getting out or the smart money that is buying in from those getting out?


----------



## MrBurns (28 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> I still haven't worked out whether it is the smart money getting out or the smart money that is buying in from those getting out?




Step back and look at the big picture, there's no good news on the horizon only dark clouds.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Step back and look at the big picture, there's no good news on the horizon only dark clouds.




People have been sprooking that for the last three years. The xao has recovered from 3200 to 5000, dived back to 3800 recovered to 4600 and recently dropped just under 4100. I've been in (and out) the whole time. 
The volitility of the last three years has been more rewarding than the previous six. I say "Bring it on".


----------



## kid hustlr (29 May 2012)

What happened in the open this morning??


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 May 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> What happened in the open this morning??




Spain worries, President talking about not needing more bailout money for their third biggest bank.......... yeah right!

EURO tanked.


----------



## kid hustlr (29 May 2012)

Yeah but it gapped like 20 points or something weird? Didn't do the usual tranche open.

Is it option expiry or some other trading related occurence I'm not aware of?


----------



## skc (29 May 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah but it gapped like 20 points or something weird? Didn't do the usual tranche open.
> 
> Is it option expiry or some other trading related occurence I'm not aware of?




US public holiday overnight so the ASX24 futures finished early... so the gap open to catch up with what happened in Europe after SPI closed.


----------



## notting (7 June 2012)

The markets are priceing in QE3 personally I don't think it's going to happen, though now I qualify it with, yet!


----------



## notting (19 June 2012)

What seems most relevent at this point is the fact that the price of oil has taken such a tumble and is still looking weak.  This seemed to me to be the intent of the Fed earlier this year.  So underlying the talks of stimulus is this fact which, I personally think, is the best best and fairest kind of stimulus for the world economy and have no doubt that Ben is quietly very happy about this.
It is 'the stimulus' and there really is no need for anything els.
If there is more stimulus now, that would just drive oil higher which would act as a global hedge against it's own premis!
The best move for global stimulus, right now, is to make sure markets are bearish enough to keep oil, the best stimulus, down!
Stimulating.


----------



## CanOz (19 June 2012)

notting said:


> What seems most relevent at this point is the fact that the price of oil has taken such a tumble and is still looking weak.  This seemed to me to be the intent of the Fed earlier this year.  So underlying the talks of stimulus is this fact which, I personally think, is the best best and fairest kind of stimulus for the world economy and have no doubt that Ben is quietly very happy about this.
> It is 'the stimulus' and there really is no need for anything els.
> If there is more stimulus now, that would just drive oil higher which would act as a global hedge against it's own premis!
> The best move for global stimulus, right now, is to make sure markets are bearish enough to keep oil, the best stimulus, down!
> Stimulating.




I agree Notting, oil being the barometer for energy costs. Energy costs a huge roll in the cost structure, being no.2 if not number one in the majority of manufacturing processes nowadays. I heard on the Bloomy last week that the had just begun unwinding their longs, and i was stunned. If you look at the COT chart though, i can't see a ton a downside left, and there is support where we are now in crude, sorry no chart on this PC.

Crude and the equity markets are very correlated, so we need that big capitulation in the equities....in the next few weeks i reckon...then a test of the lows on low season again....

BTW: the commercials are the ones that actually move the market, and they are unwinding their shorts pretty quickly...

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## notting (10 July 2012)

Just thought I'd tag these two articles for those who may not have read them.

Bernanke to Congress: We're Much Closer to Total Destruction Than You Think! 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41491193/

Roubini: My 'Perfect Storm' Scenario Is Unfolding Now!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48116835/


God knows why I feel bullish:dunno:


----------



## qldfrog (3 August 2012)

not the perfect thread for this but interesting information on cash reserve (or absence of) for our resource companies, and as they are a huge part of our stock market:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...-cash-crunch-by-christmas-20120802-23ice.html
Hope it helps


----------



## nulla nulla (3 August 2012)

Alan Hull is projecting that the U.S. Presidential elections will likely start the next global bear market.


----------



## notting (25 January 2013)

Spain's  unemployment 26%


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 January 2013)

notting said:


> Spain's  unemployment 26%




US debt ceiling abolished


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 January 2013)

notting said:


> Spain's  unemployment 26%




US debt ceiling abolished (perma-temp)


----------



## Bill M (25 January 2013)

> The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread




It's not tanking now and those that bought when it was are doing quite well right now.

Tomorrow it's Australia Day, big parties all around. What a great 12 Months it's been.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 January 2013)

Yeah remember all the panicking that was going on just 4 and 5 months ago...doom doom gloom gloom. 

There were guys in the CKF thread (Kentucky fried chicken) that were actually arguing that fried chicken was a bad business to be in...that 100 KFC stores could not make a decent profit!!!  madness.


----------



## Bill M (25 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Yeah remember all the panicking that was going on just 4 and 5 months ago...doom doom gloom gloom.




These guys are all desperately waiting for pull backs now.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 January 2013)

Bill M said:


> These guys are all desperately waiting for pull backs now.




Nah, most of em cant pull the trigger in the face of fear, they're waiting for a trend to emerge or for the 100 day MA or some over signal that the heard is moving again..waiting for something.


----------



## Tyler Durden (25 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Yeah remember all the panicking that was going on just 4 and 5 months ago...doom doom gloom gloom.




I'm still a bear. In my view, nothing about the macro environment has improved. What _has_ changed though is the lack of media attention on the troubled Euro zone.


----------



## Julia (25 January 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> I'm still a bear. In my view, nothing about the macro environment has improved. What _has_ changed though is the lack of media attention on the troubled Euro zone.



+1.


----------



## tinhat (26 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Nah, most of em cant pull the trigger in the face of fear, they're waiting for a trend to emerge or for the 100 day MA or some over signal that the heard is moving again..waiting for something.




Or what about those people who were stuck in losing trades in a volatile sideways market while dividend yields in blue-chip stocks were screaming "buy". People on this forum were warning that CBA was a risky investment even six months or so ago (all stocks are risky - so I'm not saying it isn't). 

As for waiting and fear - never be afraid that you missed the boat. There will be another one.

It's starting to smell a bit like exuberance around here. I'm hoping it will last through the first quarter of this calendar year.


----------



## So_Cynical (26 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> O
> 
> As for waiting and fear - never be afraid that you missed the boat. There will be another one.




Some boats leave the dock never to return, like the sex you knocked back, never to return...once only opportunity.

Not all opportunities are the same...fortune favours the brave.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (26 January 2013)

I would tend to agree - the global financial climate has never been better.

For example, the EU has solved all their debt problems, Japan has just announced that they will be prosperous once more (for proof just look at the Nikkei) and the US has finally realised that debt doesn't really matter, it's just a footnote on the national ledger.

For all those that missed out - don't worry, there will be plenty more 'once in a lifetime' opportunities.


----------



## notting (18 March 2013)

The most hated, insane, counter reality rally since begginingless time, that morphed into the prophecies of *the great rotation*, where there is *still value and alot of money on the side lines*, is doing wobble no.3 by the look of it.

Now nearly everyone is saying "Oh it want be a deep dip, use today as the buying opportunity you have been waiting for since hhmmmm *November*?"


----------



## sinner (18 March 2013)

notting said:


> The most hated, insane, counter reality rally since begginingless time, that morphed into the prophecies of *the great rotation*, where there is *still value and alot of money on the side lines*, is doing wobble no.3 by the look of it.
> 
> Now nearly everyone is saying "Oh it want be a deep dip, use today as the buying opportunity you have been waiting for since hhmmmm *November*?"




How's that rally working? S&P 500 priced in AUD...


----------



## notting (18 March 2013)

Like this


----------



## sinner (18 March 2013)

Is comparing the Dow 30 with ASX200 really valid?

ASX200 is approx equal in market cap to the S&P 400 (US MidCap Index), and they performed better priced in USD from 2009 lows with lower volatility and therefore higher Sharpe ratio.


----------



## notting (18 March 2013)

sinner said:


> Is comparing the Dow 30 with ASX200 really valid?



I think so.



sinner said:


> ASX200 is approx equal in market cap to the S&P 400 (US MidCap Index), and they performed better priced in USD from 2009 lows with lower volatility and therefore higher Sharpe ratio.




What would probably be fairest would be ASX 20 vs Dow 30 adjusted to AU$ appreciation and which ever way you cut it - it's a rally since November.

Any way I'm not really worried because I took all my money out of my bank accounts today.


----------



## Tyler Durden (18 March 2013)

I think there'll be a bit of a bounce tomorrow.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 March 2013)

I will be surprised if the market doesn't bounce in a similar manner that it did last year when the Greek bailout issues caused a minor correction.


----------



## qldfrog (19 March 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> I will be surprised if the market doesn't bounce in a similar manner that it did last year when the Greek bailout issues caused a minor correction.



well went a bit deeper but less indiscriminate


----------



## tinhat (20 March 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> I will be surprised if the market doesn't bounce in a similar manner that it did last year when the Greek bailout issues caused a minor correction.




I'm just hoping for a decent pull-back and a bit of pocket money out of a couple of gold mining stocks while I wait.


----------



## notting (20 September 2013)

We've had a about a 30% rally in the states and no swoon to speak of for about 9 months.
Yesterday every man and his dog was bullish on this market on the air ways.
We have also had Carl Icahn and Warren Buffet calling the market over and fully valued.

One of the scary things Ben did, was give a pretty heavy blow to confidence whilst maintaining the support.
So we go into the debt ceiling debate just after catching our breath from a punch in the guts from Ben.
One or two commentators are saying there will be a paralyzing stand off.

China's property prices are still going through the roof as has oil whilst they claim no rise to inflation.
Almost sounds like they want to stimulate to keep the bubble growing cause there is nothing else to do but collapse now.

German elections are on the weekend which will give the new birth to a new period of reality checking, rather than so much rosy picture painting for the Eurozone.

Just some thoughts for a lazy Friday afternoon.


----------



## notting (20 September 2013)

I miss this thread, that's why ~

[video]http://www.cnbc.com/id/101049191[/video]


----------



## nulla nulla (21 September 2013)

notting said:


> Like this
> 
> View attachment 51368





G'day notting

Any prospects that you could update this chart? I suspect it would show our market (including recent gains) in a slightly less bouyant manner.

thanks & regards

nulla


----------



## notting (21 September 2013)

I don't have a chart however I believe the ASX 200 has out performed by around 6.5% since then.
Yet the au$ has lost around 12% against the US$.
So I'd say we are about even.

You can usually rely on the machines to keep it about right!!


----------



## notting (28 November 2013)

Every now and then a reality check is a good idea.

[video]http://www.cnbc.com/id/101230045[/video]

Below is a five year monthly ETF for the Russell 2000


----------



## MrBurns (28 November 2013)

I think there's a real warning there, quantitative easing might end at any moment and with it our profits if we're still in the market.


----------



## 13ugs13unny (29 November 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I think there's a real warning there, quantitative easing might end at any moment and with it our profits if we're still in the market.




http://www.businessinsider.com/smart-money-flow-index-headed-lower-2013-10

Seen few story's where smart money has  been heading for the exits since May'13.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 November 2013)

13ugs13unny said:


> http://www.businessinsider.com/smart-money-flow-index-headed-lower-2013-10
> 
> Seen few story's where smart money has  been heading for the exits since May'13.




That is a very interesting look at the market. Shame it wasn't a larger data chunk to see how it acts over a longer period.


----------



## MrBurns (29 November 2013)

13ugs13unny said:


> http://www.businessinsider.com/smart-money-flow-index-headed-lower-2013-10
> 
> Seen few story's where smart money has  been heading for the exits since May'13.




So the big question is do you gamble and stay in or play it safe and run.............I'm still in profit so I might get out for now.

I hate all this, I'd just like to buy shares and forget about them.


----------



## Porper (29 November 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I think there's a real warning there, quantitative easing might end at any moment and with it our profits if we're still in the market.




You have to remember that the market is forward looking. Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.


----------



## MrBurns (29 November 2013)

Porper said:


> You have to remember that the market is forward looking. Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.




Yes it's factoring itself in now with the present falls, not sure how low it will go when the US cuts back on the easing though. I'm still there for the moment but watching closely.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 November 2013)

MrBurns said:


> So the big question is do you gamble and stay in or play it safe and run.............I'm still in profit so I might get out for now.
> 
> I hate all this, I'd just like to buy shares and forget about them.




Burns you could do a few things other than just responding to uncertainty.

You could pick a point if it falls to some price where you would be unwilling to lose any more profit and sell out. (stop loss)

You could sell half or a smaller percentage to relive the pressure of uncertainty and lock in some profit and let the rest ride also with a point where you sell out the remaining if it falls and gives back too much. I always like this way cuz there is nothing more frustrating in watching something take off after you jump off.


----------



## havaiana (29 November 2013)

Porper said:


> You have to remember that the market is forward looking. Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.




I've been thinking the same thing, I just don't see how it's going to be possible for everyone to Short and make money. Maybe the business Insider article shows that the shorting is already being done and then when the announcement of the taper finally happens we get the old buy the rumour sell the fact. That seems too obvious as well though.

I love this saying:

“Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” Can't remember who it's from, maybe Soros


----------



## notting (29 November 2013)

Porper said:


> Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.




Which spells priced in.
It's ' no where else to go', confidence, balance sheet repair and cost cutting the got the markets up off the deck.
The easing offered the confidence once that's gone and bond markets start to move, you'd imagine that it could be prudent to take profit's and head for the safer bonds which will then be paying more.  (a scenario). 
Their all piling into Europe.  
For what?


----------



## MrBurns (29 November 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Burns you could do a few things other than just responding to uncertainty.
> 
> You could pick a point if it falls to some price where you would be unwilling to lose any more profit and sell out. (stop loss)
> 
> You could sell half or a smaller percentage to relive the pressure of uncertainty and lock in some profit and let the rest ride also with a point where you sell out the remaining if it falls and gives back too much. I always like this way cuz there is nothing more frustrating in watching something take off after you jump off.




I'm mainly in TLS.....and am very comfortable with their future prospects but will wait till the present falls seem to be accelerating then get out til it stabilises.

Thanks for the suggestions.


----------



## Struzball (29 November 2013)

havaiana said:


> I've been thinking the same thing, I just don't see how it's going to be possible for everyone to Short and make money. Maybe the business Insider article shows that the shorting is already being done and then when the announcement of the taper finally happens we get the old buy the rumour sell the fact. That seems too obvious as well though.




The majority of people are always wrong and irrational, they've probably been shorting since May, and losing lots of money, as soon as the market starts heading down, the majority will be going long, catching falling knives.

There's 2 sides of every trade, if "everyone" is shorting and making money, there are just as many going long and losing money (possibly with margin loans). Either way - I'm not brave enough to be in anything at the moment, there might be some money to make on the upside, but the downside risk is far greater.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 November 2013)

Struzball said:


> Either way - I'm not brave enough to be in anything at the moment, there might be some money to make on the upside, but the downside risk is far greater.




You only ever get paid for taking on risk and then managing it, not from avoiding it. IMO.


----------



## MrBurns (29 November 2013)

Seems to be holding but it feels like the quiet before the storm.

And then we'll all say, "we knew something was up"


----------



## notting (4 February 2014)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfVU_t940dw


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2014)

notting said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfVU_t940dw



you mean you sold in november and moved to short then , then just checked the US market this morning,
 or you just had a great night ?


----------



## Muschu (4 February 2014)

notting said:


> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfVU_t940dw




Don't overdo the empathy for the many mums and dads who are hurting.


----------



## dutchie (4 February 2014)

Will the ASX "tank" more than 2%, like the US market overnight, or will it be closer to a 1% fall?


----------



## McLovin (4 February 2014)

dutchie said:


> Will the ASX "tank" more than 2%, like the US market overnight, or will it be closer to a 1% fall?




Split the difference, 1.5%.

Things are getting cheaper everyday. Perfect.


----------



## Valued (4 February 2014)

dutchie said:


> Will the ASX "tank" more than 2%, like the US market overnight, or will it be closer to a 1% fall?




No one can know for sure. The XJO isn't giving the same technical signals as the US market. I shorted the S&P 500 before open last night and still have that position but I am not doing the same for the XJO today.


----------



## notting (4 February 2014)

qldfrog said:


> you mean you sold in November and moved to short then , then just checked the US market this morning,
> or you just had a great night ?




No, I have very little in at the moment.  I've been gun shy since September.  Am short but not hugely.
I got some family people to take out many millions in late last year so I feel good!
There isn't a strong enough theme of catastophe to make it too awesome.
But it may get clearer as to where things really are at.
The US market is pathetically overvalued but usually is so always like to see that stop the BS.
One reason for them to continue feeling positive is that it no longer looks like China is kicking their butt.  So they have plenty of strut back and I don't think that will change.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> Split the difference, 1.5%.
> 
> Things are getting cheaper everyday. Perfect.



agree.What is your exppected fall before you jump;
own feeling is 4800 or so by next month


----------



## Value Collector (4 February 2014)

Muschu said:


> Don't overdo the empathy for the many mums and dads who are hurting.




What do you mean? which mums and dads are hurting? and why?


----------



## McLovin (4 February 2014)

qldfrog said:


> agree.What is your exppected fall before you jump;
> own feeling is 4800 or so by next month




I don't really have a level for the market, just a watchlist and when things get cheap enough I start nibbling.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> I don't really have a level for the market, just a watchlist and when things get cheap enough I start nibbling.



Thanks.I should indeed remember nibbling..a smooth gradual way back..definitively will be teh way to go


----------



## So_Cynical (4 February 2014)

Another couple of days like today and the "Great day to deploy capital" thread will be active again as well. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22123&page=7


----------



## CanOz (4 February 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Another couple of days like today and the "Great day to deploy capital" thread will be active again as well.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22123&page=7





Ahhh thats the spirit SC!


----------



## Joe Blow (6 February 2014)

A number of posts in this thread that related to the money system have now been moved to a new thread. 

Please continue the discussion there.


----------



## Value Collector (19 February 2014)

I have been reading through this thread, and it is a really interesting glimpse of how people are taken by irrational fear when the market crashes a bit.

read from pages 95 - 100 and you will see mostly nothing but predictions of doom, Turns out the global economy didn't collapse. It's a great insight into humans reactions to such situations. 

There was one bullish guy though, the bears did try to beat him into submission though.


----------



## beachlife (19 February 2014)

If George is right I have no doubt that we will follow

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bet-on-the-sp-500-to-the-tune-of-1-3-billion/


----------



## keithj (19 February 2014)

beachlife said:


> If George is right I have no doubt that we will follow
> 
> http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bet-on-the-sp-500-to-the-tune-of-1-3-billion/



I could be wrong.... but looking a bit deeper into that story, he also holds a lot of Calls (although only about a 1/3rd as many).  So it may be a simple volatility strategy... might go up... might go down.

Also, the disclosure is dated 6 weeks ago.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 February 2014)

keithj said:


> I could be wrong.... but looking a bit deeper into that story, he also holds a lot of Calls (although only about a 1/3rd as many).  So it may be a simple volatility strategy... might go up... might go down.
> 
> Also, the disclosure is dated 6 weeks ago.




Yeah you cannot read anything into positions like that. They are almost always not a directional bet.


----------



## notting (9 July 2014)

I don't know what is going on over there in the states.  
But 2 days ago all of a sudden all the big wigs were talking the market down.  They had all been bullish literally up to the day before.  
But suddenly it was all time to be very cautious and spread the load and that sort of thing. 
It really was quite bazaar like they had all had a whisper.

Low and behold we have had a third negative day on the US markets.
None were long term bearish but they were all singing this tune with nothing that has materially changed to indicate a correction.  No new news or event or anything.
Sure we have just started an earnings reporting season, which can always make for some wildness but still.
The only sentence that seemed to make sense to me on it all was one that went something like this - 
The street has been bearish whilst the market has recovered, but now the street is showing signs of bullishness so the market is turning cautious.  
Presumably had a lot to do with the 6.1% backward indicator of employment


----------



## CanOz (9 July 2014)

notting said:


> I don't know what is going on over there in the states.
> But 2 days ago all of a sudden all the big wigs were talking the market down.  They had all been bullish literally up to the day before.
> But suddenly it was all time to be very cautious and spread the load and that sort of thing.
> It really was quite bazaar like they had all had a whisper.
> ...




liquidity as well....its the summer dolldrums as well....


----------



## notting (10 July 2014)

It's Portugal people.
Haven't seen European opening like this for a while!


----------



## notting (18 July 2014)

You sanction us we bring down markets!


----------



## qldfrog (18 July 2014)

seriously, i would be more
"ukrainian doing it to escalate the blame on russia"
And using the Sun is a nice way to see how the "people" aka common lowest denominator will react
not that Truth would need to be considered;
you know like the chemical weapons in ...
you name it
Both sides have interest in this, and Russia whatever you might think, may be a little morer subtle in its way to hit back at both Europe/US, but in any case as both warring factions are vodka fuelled, anything could have happened.
That will not help the dead or their relatives.
RIP


----------



## qldfrog (18 July 2014)

Notting:
a bit cheeky but:
At least, i do not believe China was involved there..


----------



## notting (18 July 2014)

Oh I can get you there.
Russia armed Mao to get the Reds in in China.
They are callusing because they thought the US was rooted in the crisis.
They are pissed because the recovery is looking very real.
So they tried to draw the Yanks into middle east again, to beggar them, with chemical weapons in Syria.
US didn't take the bait.
So they invaded Crimea.
US responded moderately with sanctions.
They got China to start ramming boats in the South China Sea.
Not much reaction from US.
So they got the mad Arabs to start rocketing Israel to get the oil going (Russian Income and harm to recovery) and world jumpy.
US fairly quiet.
Finally up the rockets and down a civilian plane.
Gloves off.
Communists.


----------



## notting (9 December 2014)

So all the commodities markets are basically collapsing, which is being exacerbated by the strength in the US$.
But Gold is showing signs of strength.
Does this spell anything to you?


----------



## rimtas (9 December 2014)

This spells to me, that commodities are very close to their temporary bottoms, and US dollar near it's temporary top. The multimonth countertrend moves in these  markets are imminent.


----------



## Muschu (10 December 2014)

rimtas said:


> This spells to me, that commodities are very close to their temporary bottoms, and US dollar near it's temporary top. The multimonth countertrend moves in these  markets are imminent.




How do we interpret your use of the word "temporary" in this post please Rimtas?  Does it simply mean that anything can happen from this point?

Multmonth countertrend?

Are you able to be more specific please?

Rick


----------



## rimtas (10 December 2014)

Temporary means temporary.
US Dollar is in a long term uptrend  and commodities are in 20year bear market, both started in 2010 just different directions. All moves against main trend will be corrective in nature and depending on time taken the main trend will resume in those markets later. Us dollar will reach triple digit territory, and commodities will decline further after a relief rally that could take months or even years. I expect oil will climb back to $80-90, gold to $1500.
There is no reason to panic, ASX is not tanking, it is just correcting the previous move from 2012.


----------



## notting (10 December 2014)

rimtas said:


> There is no reason to panic, ASX is not tanking, it is just correcting the previous move from 2012.




The time to panic (short everything)  is when oil hits $150 like when the GFC began. Right now low oil is the best stimulus for Europe and weak Asian economies.
The problem for Australia is that all we really have to offer the world is commodities apart from housing commission flats with lipstick.


----------



## Muschu (10 December 2014)

rimtas said:


> Temporary means temporary.
> US Dollar is in a long term uptrend  and commodities are in 20year bear market, both started in 2010 just different directions. All moves against main trend will be corrective in nature and depending on time taken the main trend will resume in those markets later. Us dollar will reach triple digit territory, and commodities will decline further after a relief rally that could take months or even years. I expect oil will climb back to $80-90, gold to $1500.
> There is no reason to panic, ASX is not tanking, it is just correcting the previous move from 2012.




Thanks for the additional comments Rimtas.  I appreciate your observations.

Regards


----------



## Former Investor (10 December 2014)

Just wanted to let everyone know that the company ZipTel, ASX code (ZIP) is being investigated by ASIC.

SO, potential investors should be careful buying their shares.


----------



## skyQuake (10 December 2014)

Former Investor said:


> Just wanted to let everyone know that the company ZipTel, ASX code (ZIP) is being investigated by ASIC.
> 
> SO, potential investors should be careful buying their shares.




Re the ASX Aware query on the 18th Nov?


----------



## notting (13 December 2014)

First it was the end of coal.
Then it was the end of uranium.
Then it was the end of rare earths.
Then it was the end of gold.
Then it was the end of copper.
Then it was the end of iron.
Then it was the end of oil.
It's the end of the world!


----------



## theroyal (13 December 2014)

I think It's time to buy some tulip bulbs.


----------



## pavilion103 (14 December 2014)

How I wish I had stayed in my 2 SPI contracts around 5500 :O

I wonder if we will find some (maybe temporary) support around the previous support area not too much further down.


----------



## notting (15 December 2014)

Property is having a rather bad day.
Haven't seen such negative action for quite some time.
Wondering what might have triggered that?


----------



## luutzu (15 December 2014)

notting said:


> Property is having a rather bad day.
> Haven't seen such negative action for quite some time.
> Wondering what might have triggered that?




I got cash handy and not afraid to use it... a little afraid but yea


----------



## notting (6 January 2015)

When oil dipped below 50 last night I thought
'There she is the blow off low, and it came back up over 50, Now it's just taken a stab at 48.47!

Dr Copper is doing similar things.  DRRR COPPER!  Remember Dr Copper?

Oh they say historically US stocks do well when there is US dollar strength.
Just not commodity stocks I guess.

Golds up. 

Somethings up.

Frankly, Europe has gone nowhere, cheap oil gives it some breathing space.

Given US earnings are 40% gathered from OS, you'd think if that starts to show, you gonna get some real action. This thing could be blown over with a whiff of earnings downgrades from weak US top and bottom line stuff from that 40%.

Puff. 

What can save us now?


----------



## notting (12 January 2015)

I like this guy ~



> airfax Media: How do you think 2014 panned out in investment markets?
> 
> Gerard Minack: People look at the S&P 500 and think it was a good year; it was a rubbish year for equities in US dollar terms. The S&P is the Steve Bradbury of financial markets – the only one that has kept on skating while the others wobbled and fell over.
> 
> ...


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 January 2015)

> Aussie shares are in a full-blown bear market, in US dollar terms. Credit markets are starting to wobble, commodities have been smoked. After two years of broad-based gains in risky assets, we're down to the last man standing.



I just exited all stock holdings and went to cash on that opinion. There is no way I am gonna be the last man standing. [jokin]


----------



## McLovin (12 January 2015)

I love when they wheel out these guys "who predicted the GFC" with no mention of any other predictions they might have made.


----------



## notting (12 January 2015)

McLovin said:


> I love when they wheel out these guys "who predicted the GFC" with no mention of any other predictions they might have made.




Real question is.
Are the Saudis' just trying to get the cartel working as one again by rattling cages and maybe trying to get the Russians and Venezuelans on board to cut together and maintain my turf status qua, or is it really as much a global demand issue as much as an oversupply issue.
If it's a demand issue as with copper and plenty of other commods.
We have a significant global slowdown.
Markets will respond that *mark my words*.


----------



## McLovin (12 January 2015)

notting said:


> Real question is.
> Are the Saudis' just trying to get the cartel working as one again by rattling cages and maybe trying to get the Russians and Venezuelans on board to cut together and maintain my turf status qua, or is it really as much a global demand issue as much as an oversupply issue.
> If it's a demand issue as with copper and plenty of other commods.
> We have a significant global slowdown.
> Markets will respond that *mark my words*.




That position of course assumes that the oil price was being correctly valued _before_ the Saudis started talking it down. A few people I talked to mid last year thought oil was way above where it should be.

(I don't really have an opinion on oil, just making an observation)


----------



## Logique (12 January 2015)

McLovin said:


> I love when they wheel out these guys "who predicted the GFC" with no mention of any other predictions they might have made.



Minack is a Perma-Bear, who thinks we should all be in cash.

I set little store on his pronouncements. The glass is always half-empty.


----------



## notting (12 January 2015)

Logique said:


> Minack is a Perma-Bear, who thinks we should all be in cash.
> 
> I set little store on his pronouncements. The glass is always half-empty.




He was actually in hibernation and was hunted out for this.  I like a good "shooting off your mouth, without a vested interest."

The danger I see is the fact that people are struggling to get food that they are used to getting in some of these oil nations.  That usually shakes things up, one way or another.  If oil stays where it is, things will get interesting!

Could be worse but ~ Goldman Sachs, the bank that called $200 oil now says it will hit $40. Not a bad random guess!


----------



## rimtas (12 January 2015)

notting said:


> Oh they say historically US stocks do well when there is US dollar strength.



 Did you check? You'll be surprised to see how "well" stocks were doing during US dollar countertrend rallies(historically)


----------



## Julia (12 January 2015)

Logique said:


> Minack is a Perma-Bear, who thinks we should all be in cash.
> 
> I set little store on his pronouncements. The glass is always half-empty.



Nonetheless, he reflects what many people think.  I'm probably more the half empty than half full view also, and I recall sydboy saying the same recently.

It was all those people who saw the glass as full and flowing over who got so burned in the GFC.


----------



## McLovin (12 January 2015)

Logique said:


> Minack is a Perma-Bear, who thinks we should all be in cash.
> 
> I set little store on his pronouncements. The glass is always half-empty.




You got that right. I did a bit of Googling on him and pretty much going back to 1999 he's been saying the end was nigh. His record is pretty poor, as it is with most who try and forecast these things. The negative can always sound the more intellectually convincing argument which is in part why it grabs the headlines. I wouldn't trust a perma-bear anymore than a perma-bull. The Howard Marks approach of knowing where you are on the pendulum because it always swings back, makes more sense to me.

Now where's that wombat Harry Dent? The last thing he picked right was his nose.


----------



## Tyler Durden (13 January 2015)

notting said:


> I like this guy ~




I read that article with interest. I did a google search for anything that may point out if any of his predictions in the past have been wrong, couldn't find anything, but I suppose if one maintains a particular point of view of the market, it would be right eventually, right?

It's all good to say "the market will crash" or "the market will rise", but the more critical question is: when?


----------



## notting (13 January 2015)

Yeah I know.
I love them all,(accept that Harry Dent who I would enjoy watching go under a bus) it's most entertaining, and what I think of most markets apart from ours which trades on more than just, 'We have no where els to put all this fricken cash.'

I mean this is how desperate they are to buy anything "Trophy office tower the Crown Building will be sold for $1.75 billion." in NY.
That pile of **** is going to return them 1.5% fully rented.

That is simply insane.
As are the 10 and less year Bonds all over the joint.


----------



## tinhat (14 January 2015)

notting said:


> Real question is.
> Are the Saudis' just trying to get the cartel working as one again by rattling cages and maybe trying to get the Russians and Venezuelans on board to cut together and maintain my turf status qua, or is it really as much a global demand issue as much as an oversupply issue.
> If it's a demand issue as with copper and plenty of other commods.
> We have a significant global slowdown.
> Markets will respond that *mark my words*.




Sometimes it's easier to just look to the bland microeconomic theory. As growth in demand has outstripped growth in supply market equilibrium has settled at higher prices for oil (and other hydrocarbon substitutes) resulting in investment in production at higher marginal cost. Growth in demand has stalled while the pipeline of higher marginal cost projects continues to bring more supply online.

If the market demands quantity X of a commodity, the spot price of that commodity will be determined by the marginal cost of production within the industry to supply quantity X.

Obviously, in the short term, markets are more turbulent and overshoot this way and that, but the underlying economics really explains what is going on more than analysis of geopolitics in my humble opinion.

If the rate of growth in demand does pick up that will quickly see recovery in price because the current price shock will lead to a reduction in investment decisions in new supply.

In the longer term, transition away from hydrocarbons towards alternative energy sources is a factor that will determine the demand for hydrocarbons. This is not a trivial issue in my opinion.


----------



## notting (14 January 2015)

ECB has been granted a legal mandate to print, provided it's not used to hold up any individual sovereign.
WOW, There really are terrified of the interest rates on bonds rising and exposing the inability of sovereigns being able to manage let alone pay back debt.  The only way out is inflating everything to make the sovereign debts look small and manageable with taxes from all the mahuala slopping around all over the place.

My God it looks like it's going to happen.

More hydrocarbons for everyone.  That's a weird name from money dude.   (see post above)
So guess we'll see bonds buying at negative interest rates and god knows what else.

What's China going to do? Now that it's largest trading partner is going to maintain a cheaper currency? Guess it will have to 'broaden the Yuans' trading band' in a southerly direction in order to maintain it's manipulated manufacturing affordability, which was kind of the source of all this in the first place all those years ago. (No jobs anywhere just a billion slaves in China) With Maos’ saggy @rse sitting on the Yuan so no democracy could compete

The case for the recent gold run somewhat justified.
Yikes put a few shorts on yesterday and today.

We're all cashed up with no returns found on anything anymore.
Maybe we should just feed the starving and be done with it.


----------



## shouldaindex (14 January 2015)

Doing some background work on the ASX indexes.  Here are the >= 20% drops since 1987 (duration of drop).

1987 - 50% (12 months)
1989 - 30% (15 months)
1992 - 20% (6 months) 
1994 - 20% (12 months)
2002 - 20% (12 months)
2007 - 50% (18 months) 
2011 - 20% (6 months) 

So XAO 5350 will need to reach 6400 just to remain at 5350 after the next 20% correction. 

I'm also assuming any dividend yield on an index fund can be matched (4-5% by another fixed interest asset, cancelling each other out, so capital gains is the important factor ).

Nobody can predict what is going to happen but getting an idea of the equation and historical information can be handy.  

I've been looking out for 4600 for a while now, and am looking forward to the April-May period where things generally get interesting.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2015)

tinhat said:


> If the rate of growth in demand does pick up that will quickly see recovery in price because the current price shock will lead to a reduction in investment decisions in new supply.
> 
> In the longer term, transition away from hydrocarbons towards alternative energy sources is a factor that will determine the demand for hydrocarbons. This is not a trivial issue in my opinion.




Agreed although there's some complexity with "alternatives".

In general, most "alternative" energy sources produce electricity as their output. They do not produce process heat or liquid fuels. Solar, wind, geothermal etc - they all produce electricity. With the exception of ethanol (relatively small) and biodiesel (trivial) they don't produce liquid fuels.

Now, in most places most electricity is not produced from oil. Major sources at the global level are coal, gas, hydro and nuclear with small but significant production from wind and oil. Minor amounts from other things like geothermal and solar. But oil is a minor source in most countries, generally used for supply in remote areas, as peaking plant rarely operating to feed the main grid, or as a backup fuel in gas (most commonly) or coal (generally limited to combustion stabilisation and startup) plants. Oil is very rarely used as a fuel for baseload generation these days.

Looking at Australia, we use a bit of diesel in remote areas but that's really it so far as oil is concerned. It's less than 2% of our total electricity production, and most of that isn't going into a main grid. We do have a few small to medium sized oil-fired plants in the grid, but they're very rarely used (only when demand is extreme eg during heatwaves or failure of other generation). Same broad concept in most countries with a few exceptions such as Saudi Arabia.

So a transition toward alternative energy tends to reduce the use of coal mostly and gas to a lesser extent. Nuclear plants are high cost in total but cheap to run once built, so they tend not to cut output where renewables are developed (though renewables may avoid building a nuclear plant in the first place). Oil just carries on with its' peaking and backup role, and nobody's going to abandon a hydro scheme in order to use solar unless for purely political reasons. It's coal and gas which cut output when renewables are built.

So, so far as the oil market is concerned, wind and solar etc aren't a real alternative. They produce electricity whereas most oil is used for transport with the rest largely for direct fuel (industry, heating etc) or petrochemicals. Not much oil is used to generate electricity in most countries these days (it was a major source 40 years ago but that's long gone).

All that said, there's a greater long term threat to LNG in the Australian context. If the cost of LNG exceeds that of obtaining intermittent power from wind and solar etc, then any rational electricity company is going to build wind and solar and make less use of their gas-fired generation. Import dependence may encourage such moves even where the cost isn't strictly viable as such but is reasonably close. There are political, national security, economy (keep the money at home rather than spending on imported fuel) and environmental motives to go down that track. There is thus a realistic limit to the price that anyone would sensibly pay, at the margin, for LNG in the long term and that price cap is set by the full range of available alternatives. Even if you keep the gas plant as backup, there's no point running it 24/7 if wind etc becomes cheaper or otherwise preferred.

Long term, demand for oil is more subject to changes in use rather than energy production per se. Eg an electric car reduces the use of oil, and does so even if the power to run it is coming from a very conventional source such as coal or hydro. Same with an electric train versus diesel. Likewise a more efficient plane uses less fuel outright. Any mass adoption of electric vehicles, or a move away from car transport (noting that peak driving per capita has already occurred in some countries) will hit oil demand hard. In contrast, wind turbines and solar panels impact primarily in the demand for coal and gas, not oil as such.


----------



## Logique (15 January 2015)

VIX over 7 years, monthly. 
Bear in mind that high volatility can mean Tops or Bottoms.


----------



## tinhat (15 January 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Any mass adoption of electric vehicles, or a move away from car transport (noting that peak driving per capita has already occurred in some countries) will hit oil demand hard. In contrast, wind turbines and solar panels impact primarily in the demand for coal and gas, not oil as such.




Thanks for the excellent analysis. In terms of using electricity for transportation, where it would be a direct substitute for oil derived fuels, as an armchair observer of popular science, I, like many, am waiting for the technological breakthroughs in electricity storage to change the "paradigm" on making electricity versatile enough for transport.

If battery storage was cheap enough I'd be able to run my house 100% on solar year round. If battery storage was cheap enough it would remove the need for base load power stations altogether (reducing demand for coal, natural gas and uranium).


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2015)

tinhat said:


> Thanks for the excellent analysis. In terms of using electricity for transportation....




To put it into perspective, in recent years we've seen considerable development of "alternative" energy in Australia. We've not got quite a bit of wind power and household solar too.

Oil consumption has continued to rise despite this, and oil is once again Australia's number 1 fuel (was coal from the early 1980's until quite recently).


----------



## notting (16 January 2015)

If you thought the Swiss Army knife was a terrifying peace of weaponry 
Here's what a Swiss Tank looks like ~ 




No longer a safe haven for about 35 years you might think


----------



## waterbottle (16 January 2015)

notting said:


> If you thought the Swiss Army knife was a terrifying peace of weaponry
> Here's what a Swiss Tank looks like ~
> 
> View attachment 61157
> ...




Bailout the brokers :


----------



## notting (16 January 2015)

waterbottle said:


> Bailout the brokers :




Bail out the central banks!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## waterbottle (16 January 2015)

notting said:


> Bail out the central banks!!!!!!!!!!




LOL

Someone pointed out (in another forum) that the last someone unpegged a currency, it resulted in the Asian Financial Crisis.
http://www.economist.com/node/151587


----------



## notting (21 January 2015)

Sorry to put a dampner on the picnic, but ~ 

We aint seen this since the 1930's.



> London Telegraph writes:
> 
> Beggar-thy-neighbour devaluations are spreading to every region. All the major central banks are stoking asset bubbles deliberately to put off the day of reckoning. This time emerging markets have been drawn into the quagmire as well, corrupted by the leakage from quantitative easing (QE) in the West.
> 
> ...




The economic co operative of the human race lasted surprisingly long.
It seems now we are reverting back to our basic instincts and behaving like mad free for all anarchic pack animals.
:


----------



## notting (22 January 2015)

Rumor has it - 



> (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's Executive Board has proposed a programme that would enable the ECB to buy 50 billion euros ($58 billion) in bonds per month starting in March, a euro zone source said on Wednesday.
> 
> Reuters could not confirm reports from other media about the length of the proposed programme. The Wall Street Journal said it would last at least one year. News agency Bloomberg said the purchases would run to the end of 2016.




This is pop gun, not a bazooka.
Markets should not be impressed. (It's well and truly priced in)

It is, however, a new precedent - a cultural shift.
The Euro zone is no longer a basket case because it can now print like the rest of the world.
Hence, that may take away from too much negativity and not be too confronting to the Germans at first look, as it can always be extended, if and when it is obviously going to be a balanced thing to do.
Market punters want a bazooka, sensible people want a solution to the unforeseen limitations of no real central bank manipulation capabilities for the Eurozone.
Business as usual, I guess.


----------



## Logique (26 January 2015)

With the leftist, anti-austerity Syriza party comfortably ahead in the Greek election, it's going to be interesting watching Euro markets this week.


----------



## notting (26 January 2015)

Perhaps the Russian's have decided that they are going to default any way, so why not go the whole hog and take Ukraine as well. 
It's only the creditors that will lose from this point.


----------



## notting (17 March 2015)

> Under the headline “Go big or go home”, Bell Potter analyst TS Lim now thinks CBA stock can hit $100 in the coming six to 12 months, up from his previous target of $92.50, as another cash rate cut gives fresh impetus to the hunt for yield.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...leads-rally-20150317-3s9ld.html#ixzz3Ubco1J00




That's a sell signal.


----------



## PinguPingu (17 March 2015)

notting said:


> That's a sell signal.





The search for yield is insane, I just think any major dips are going to be bought up by either SMSF's or the big industry and retail funds.


----------



## notting (25 August 2015)

Last of my major shorts just got cashed out.
Now's the time for me to start getting nervous.
China hasn't even opened yet.  Please go up China, you know how much I love you.
Bear markets are very rare without a recession.
All China needs to do is announce a stimulus and the markets will catch fire to the upside, including commodities!!!


----------



## PinguPingu (25 August 2015)

PinguPingu said:


> The search for yield is insane, I just think any major dips are going to be bought up by either SMSF's or the big industry and retail funds.





Lol, hindsight is 20/20. Looks like they're in today though.


----------



## shouldaindex (25 August 2015)

If sentiment isn't backed up by earnings, it's as if it never happened.

That's true on the way up as we saw in December-April and likely to be true for what we're seeing this seasonal period (5100 to 5900 to 4900 to ?).

All a sideshow for an actual economic event that leads to declining earnings in sectors that drove earnings this cycle, which has been banks / property.  That means property prices and bad debts, which have been unaffected by whatever has actually happened in the past 2 weeks.


----------



## notting (12 February 2016)

So perhaps it was just a seven year short squeeze.  Given we haven't had a correction prior to going straight back into a bear market.


----------



## sinner (12 February 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> If sentiment isn't backed up by earnings, it's as if it never happened.




I think I understand your message but phrasing makes it confusing. 

Assuming I do understand, this is referred to as the multiple of earnings that investors are willing to rate a stock or index. Depending on risk seeking sentiment in the market, investors might rate prices at a higher multiple of earnings regardless of lack of EPS growth and by the same token the market can decline as investors rate prices at a lower multiple of earnings even if there is EPS growth. 

As per Hussman

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070730.htm


> “Abrupt market weakness is generally the result of low risk premiums being pressed higher. There need not be any collapse in earnings for a deep market decline to occur. The stock market dropped by half in 1973-74 even while S&P 500 earnings grew by over 50%. The 1987 crash was associated with no loss in earnings. Fundamentals don't have to change overnight.* There is in fact zero correlation between year-over-year changes in earnings and year-over-year changes in the S&P 500. *Rather, low and expanding risk premiums are at the root of nearly every abrupt market loss. One of the best indications of the speculative willingness of investors is the ‘uniformity’ of positive market action across a broad range of internals."


----------



## notting (14 February 2016)

Commodities have been soft due to oversupply, apart from Gold.  If that is true and markets had not been pricing in weakness in demand then we are in for a serious sh4t storm.
RIO finally conceded they had underestimated the weakening demand from China.
I  have noticed that Oil is reacting to weakness in China not so much on the oversupply in a normal growing market.
If this is all priced in well OK then, so we'll have weakness for some time but if not this is going to get really really GFC like.

Preez Consider - 
What would reverse look like after this kind of pace - Cement being pored -




International Shipcare, a Malaysian company that mothballs ships and rigs, is busy taking calls from beleaguered operators with excess capacity. There are 102 vessels laid up at the company’s berths off the Malaysian island of Labuan, *more than double the number a year ago*. But wait there's more on the way. “There’s a huge demand,” he says. “People are calling us not to lay up one ship but 15 or 20.”




Welcome to hell!


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 February 2016)

notting said:


> Commodities have been soft due to oversupply




Apart from a few very localised issues (Eg towns running out of water due to drought or a concert that sells out) there's basically nothing I can think of, either commodities, manufactured goods or services, that isn't in some degree of an over supply situation these days.

Pick something, anything really, and with very few exceptions there's more than enough of it to meet the actual demand from buyers. That doesn't give anyone pricing power really when practically everything is over or at least adequately supplied. It goes way beyond things like iron ore, coal, China etc and it's the same with practically everything. Very few things are in short supply right now.


----------



## notting (14 February 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> Very few things are in short supply right now.




The online retail revolution has also given the consumer pricing power over the old style bricks and mortar thing.  
So retail may appear soft when it hasn't been, it's just that people are getting much better deals and retailers are being screwed on margins and the growth looks small on naked numbers but in terms of transactions I am certain it's all been pretty boomy over the last 5 years or so without looking like it.

You now have an over supply with that, as you say, as well as emerging markets are not easily becoming consumers despite them having been driving quite alot of demand simply due to their size, but now are slowing etc. 

Just another nail.  
Not that the coffin even needed it!:frown:

Risk management is the name of the game so 

Uncertainty is poison, and we know how much markets love that!!:vader:



> The best piece of advice, though, may be to just buckle down and hold on. The world has never been in a predominantly negative interest-rate world, so no one's quite sure what will happen. "There's not a lot of historical evidence to learn from," said Alankar. "We have to see how it plays out."


----------



## satanoperca (14 February 2016)

notting said:


> Commodities have been soft due to oversupply, apart from Gold.  If that is true and markets had not been pricing in weakness in demand then we are in for a serious sh4t storm.
> RIO finally conceded they had underestimated the weakening demand from China.
> I  have noticed that Oil is reacting to weakness in China not so much on the oversupply in a normal growing market.
> If this is all priced in well OK then, so we'll have weakness for some time but if not this is going to get really really GFC like.
> ...




Not quite hell, but we are in for a massive slow down. One cannot grow at 7-10% a year, year on year.

Thanks for the post notting.

GFC big brother is coming, I expect that it will be the big sister in the next decade that will really wipe everything out.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 February 2016)

Another issue I see is that not only do we have an abundance of goods being produced but people have already bought what they actually want.

There wouldn't be too many people in 2016 hoping that by the end of the year they'll have saved enough to buy a second TV or a new washing machine. If someone wants household goods etc then they've already got them given that most things are incredibly cheap these days compared to what they cost in the past.

So that's another dimension to the over supply issue. Consumers already have pretty much every physical item they want. They don't actually need to buy more "stuff" for quite some time.


----------



## poverty (15 February 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> So that's another dimension to the over supply issue. Consumers already have pretty much every physical item they want. They don't actually need to buy more "stuff" for quite some time.




I want a new fridge.  My work mate just moved out of his parents house and into a rental, he bought a $4000 TV and just about every other appliance you can think of.


----------



## Logique (15 February 2016)

The ASX won't be tanking today, good OS lead last Friday.

By the middle of the year, the falling AUD will bite, and white goods and any other imports eg computers and software, these are going to get mighty pricey in local dollar terms.

Even online orders via OS suppliers are being screwed down, with GST to be applied, and a range of goods that importers won't ship outside domestic.  

But online shopping is great, and keeps the brick and mortar retailers honest.


----------



## notting (15 February 2016)

China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.

:bricks1:


----------



## CanOz (15 February 2016)

> 10:04*(CN) CHINA JAN TRADE BALANCE (CNY TERMS): 406B V 389BE; EXPORTS Y/Y: -6.6% V +3.6%E; IMPORTS Y/Y: -14.4% V 1.8%E; Overall trade volume CNY1.88T, -9.8% y/yUSD terms:- Trade Balance: $63.3B v $60.6Be- Exports Y/Y: -11.2% v -2.0%e - Imports Y more... (related USD/CNY AUD/USD PGJ FXI EUR/CNY TRADEX RUB/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com




I'm not sure how serious the market will take the January Feb numbers as the economy slows at this time of year here for SF holidays....


----------



## satanoperca (15 February 2016)

notting said:


> China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.
> 
> :bricks1:




I would have thought January would be a bumper month before holidays. All my suppliers stopped taking orders at the start of January to guarantee delivery before the start of the festive holidays.

My shipping costs always spike in February as everyone is trying to get their stock on ships after the holidays.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 February 2016)

notting said:


> China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.
> 
> :bricks1:




I think this must be good news coz all the markets are ripping higher. Or some other piece of such good news that eludes me? Or is bad news good, again? Was that bad news or is it really worse?? Or is oil going higher, which is good news, or bad? Sell the rip.....


----------



## smallwolf (15 February 2016)

newbie... but ... 1 day up does not make a return to a bull market *** waiting patiently ***


----------



## notting (15 February 2016)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think this must be good news coz all the markets are ripping higher. Or some other piece of such good news that eludes me? Or is bad news good, again? Was that bad news or is it really worse?? Or is oil going higher, which is good news, or bad? Sell the rip.....




OIL - Euro, Japan getting into the move inspired by Saudi Arabia apparently ready to cooperate on output  cut to bolster weak crude prices, according to a report Thursday. Earlier Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the Saudis had floated oil production cuts of up to 5 percent by each country - apparently that is not true but last time oil hit 26 something everyone started jumping up and down like China and Arabs!  So seems like it's the pain threshold.


----------



## shouldaindex (15 February 2016)

In 2008:

116 Days went up
136 Days went down

Hard to tell what's happening most of the time.


----------



## notting (16 February 2016)

After the success or Richard Dawkins book the God Delusion,
He has been working on a new book called the China Delusion.
Here's a sneak at some research he did today whilst sitting at home and watching  CNBC live - 

Let's start with humility and get up from there-


----------



## notting (19 February 2016)

Roaring Bear.

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000494841[/video]


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

Bean a while!! 
Since this thread hit the front page.
sold everything long to be cautious.
Certainly wasn't geared for the Brexit.
What happens now? Uncertainty everywhere.

So what did we miss?
David Cameron won the election on the back of offering a referendum on Euro membership.  We should have paid more attention to the reality of that!!


----------



## CanOz (24 June 2016)

All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....
> 
> This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....




Yeh I _sort of_ agree with this.  Hopefully not the beginning of the end though.

Add to the equation a p1ssweak UN, afraid to step in and use force where necessary.  The refugee crisis appears to me (as a complete outsider) like it could have been prevented.


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....
> 
> This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....




Great point.  The immigration/refugee issue is certainly what would have been the major issue to get it over the line.


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

Will have been huge amount of pain on the Sterling.
There will be consequences!


----------



## pixel (24 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....
> 
> This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....




I wouldn't make quite as sweeping a generalisation and accuse "the US" indiscriminately.
Sure, there were influential forces in the US Administration, using George Bubbleyou as their figurehead, and let him persuade two other dummies with lies about WMD. Plenty of decent US citizens were totally opposed to his politics, just as many Australians and Britons spoke against planned war crimes.

But yes, the seed for the present rift was sown by the bombing of Baghdad. And now, the parties of all three main culprits refuse to accept responsibility for the human misery they created, closing their doors and borders citing "National interest". Despicable.


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

At least it's not Friday so we can all have a full weekend to remain in confusion and dismay to really set it in!
Oh it is.
I'm hearing these level headed journalists keeping the talk cool wit,h and I quote, "Air raid sirens are going off, traders unable to eat  their pizzas. Colossal. Orders have been coming in all night to dump portfolios"


----------



## notting (24 June 2016)

They say volatility increases just before a turn.

Monthly S&P500




FTSE only down by 4% making it still just positive for the week.


----------



## Tyler Durden (24 June 2016)

I wonder if this will trigger other nations to exit?


----------



## History Repeats (24 June 2016)

Tyler Durden said:


> I wonder if this will trigger other nations to exit?




The Dutch and the French, some parliament members consideration a vote.


----------



## smallwolf (24 June 2016)

i cant help but thinking of what happened today as act now and think later about the consequences...


----------



## notting (1 July 2016)

If you got freaked out and trapped long by the BREXIT decision, the door is now open if you want to run through it cheaply!!


----------



## CanOz (1 July 2016)

notting said:


> If you got freaked out and trapped long by the BREXIT decision, the door is now open if you want to run through it cheaply!!





I'm a little stunned at the strength of this rally, every indice....so strong...


----------



## notting (1 July 2016)

CanOz said:


> I'm a little stunned at the strength of this rally, every indice....so strong...




End of month re-balancing combined with short squeez and Central banks all opening up their wallets.
It's a madhouse.  Bonds yielding zip. :microwave


----------



## smallwolf (1 July 2016)

was watching ABC morning show (AUS version) yesterday I think, and had a guy on talking about the markets and "they" were reckoning the market would end year around 4800 (will assume calendar year). if there is a link I can post it. 

My own view re Brexit was that it was a shock decision and every commentator throwing in their 2c worth about the effects. And the not knowing about the real effects of such a decision resulted in the sky is falling mentality. What has really changed? People still shop, invest, build, etc. The market will be volatile, but somehow now it is a changing world, and maybe the rules are changing.

(These are my personal views and not advice)


----------



## CanOz (1 July 2016)

notting said:


> End of month re-balancing combined with short squeez and Central banks all opening up their wallets.
> It's a madhouse.  Bonds yielding zip. :microwave




Yeah i think i underestimated the short covering potential and the end of month timing. I still can't imagine what the CB's can practically do. Even Carney said their effect would be limited. 

If the SPI get over 5250 then the Brexit GAP will be challenged.


----------



## CanOz (1 July 2016)

smallwolf said:


> was watching ABC morning show (AUS version) yesterday I think, and had a guy on talking about the markets and "they" were reckoning the market would end year around 4800 (will assume calendar year). if there is a link I can post it.
> 
> My own view re Brexit was that it was a shock decision and every commentator throwing in their 2c worth about the effects. And the not knowing about the real effects of such a decision resulted in the sky is falling mentality. What has really changed? People still shop, invest, build, etc. The market will be volatile, but somehow now it is a changing world, and maybe the rules are changing.
> 
> (These are my personal views and not advice)




Yeah i think the whole inital move was totally overdone and would have represented a good buy as they usualy do (not that i take them). However usually these price shocks seldom claw the whole thing back...which has nearly occured here. I mean there hasn't even been a pause, its been a bee line. Today is the second day (RTH) that the profiles are hinting of short covering, with the classic 'p' shape.


----------



## notting (1 July 2016)

:dance:



> key takeaway is that both May and Gove seem committed to taking the UK out of the EU single market, which is what will do the most damage to the UK economy and largely guarantees Scotland will leave the UK. Markets seem to be focused on the short-term in that these potentially devastating economic consequences will warrant further monetary stimulus, rather than that it will have negative economic consequences.
> 
> But the pound seems to be a far better reflection of the expectations for the UK economy. And while markets haven't really encountered massive jumps in inflation alongside QE policies, the massive drop in the value of the pound will change this calculus in the UK.




Remembering that the short covering and opportunistic buying came in on the back of hope for another referendum or simply UK parliament not carrying through on BREXIT because the people have turned since the vote.

Meanwhile machines, re balancing, end of fin year for some and liberals getting voted it again all adding to the very very short term bounce.  Last night they promised stimulus, when necessary, whilst affirming the leaving the Euro!


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 July 2016)

ballast
https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat



> Joules MM1
> 2016-Jul-01 11:38:39
> last one : David Scutt Verified account ‏@David_Scutt Jun 28
> Australians couldn't give a XXXX about Brexit (via @BIAUS) http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australians-couldnt-give-a-xxxx-about-brexit-2016-6… #ausbiz
> ...


----------



## CanOz (1 July 2016)

A near Perfect 'P'

Trap some longs there will ya!


----------



## notting (1 July 2016)

Perhaps I am being too influenced by these -



> China's vast factory sector flatlined in June as exports shrank and jobs were cut, a worrying trend evident across Asia that argues for yet more policy stimulus as doubts gather over the potency of measures taken so far.
> 
> The hard times signaled by a range of surveys was not what the world needed a week after Britain's vote to leave the European Union condemned that bloc to months, if not years, of political and economic instability.






> Britain's decision to leave the European Union has "unleashed" a crisis in financial markets similar to the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, George Soros told the European Parliament in Brussels.
> 
> "This has been unfolding in slow motion, but Brexit will accelerate it. It is likely to reinforce the deflationary trends that were already prevalent," the billionaire investor said on Thursday.




I'm not talking my book for I went back in long late Tuesday with twice as much as what I sold on Friday.
I have been selling in 3rds for the last three days so am basically out now.

Whilst out I still hold the bias to the market tanking psychologically.  

I do have, however, a positive bias for FMG and RIO as China is going to stimulate and it looks like the front ran that announcement on Tuesday on FMG.

However everything will get clobbered if the CRISIS sentiment gains momentum.

I've never seen a crash that lets you get out.  Time for conspiracy - all the big hedge funds were on the long side so market makers are getting themselves out with large holding manipulation.  Just like they held off the collapse in US markets during sub prime with Lemans collapse  for a few weeks when it became obvious.
Be looking for the big short when the time seems right.


----------



## skc (1 July 2016)

FWIW, this is the XJO after Lehman Brother's collapse on 16 Sept 2008. Those 2 green candles would definitely have forced a lot of the shorts to cover.




This is the DJIA.




The market lost just under 4% on the news but recovered in 2 sessions as if Lehman bankruptcy never happened.

Today the overall market is trading like Brexit never happened... although don't tell the European bank stocks that. Bank stocks in trouble indicates the overall economy will be bad... yet a bad economy means more stimulus so the overall market rises. So buy every dip except don't buy the banks... because economy will be bad, so the market will be good. Or whatever...


----------



## VSntchr (1 July 2016)

skc said:


> Today the overall market is trading like Brexit never happened... although don't tell the European bank stocks that. Bank stocks in trouble indicates the overall economy will be bad... yet a bad economy means more stimulus so the overall market rises. So buy every dip except don't buy the banks... because economy will be bad, so the market will be good. Or whatever...


----------



## So_Cynical (2 July 2016)

skc said:


> Today the overall market is trading like Brexit never happened... although don't tell the European bank stocks that. Bank stocks in trouble indicates the overall economy will be bad... yet a bad economy means more stimulus so the overall market rises. *So buy every dip except don't buy the banks*... because economy will be bad, so the market will be good. Or whatever...




I plead ignorance, so i had to randomly look up some Euro bank stocks....its ugly.
~


----------



## notting (2 July 2016)

You should see Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays.:bad:


----------



## History Repeats (2 July 2016)

CDS chart would give a better picture of those banks


----------



## notting (12 September 2016)

The global bond market has more than tripled in size in the past 15 years and now exceeds $100 trillion. 
By contrast, the value of the global stock market is around $64 trillion.

The global bond market has never, in the history of the human race, been so bloated as it was before last Fridays sell off.

If that is not the greatest bubble in history, then there is no such thing as a bubble!

It's highly unusual for stocks and bonds to take a big hit on the same day.  
There is usually a rotation from one into the other. :1zhelp:

Just thought I'd mention this.


----------



## CanOz (12 September 2016)

Yeah, this is noteworthy I reckon, we we need to see how it unfolds....where is the scared money going to go?


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 September 2016)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, this is noteworthy I reckon, we we need to see how it unfolds....where is the scared money going to go?




Just about every stock is down. 

ASX 200 - 5 stocks went up, 192 went down, rest unchanged

Dow - All 30 stocks down

S&P 500 - 11 stocks went up, 494 stocks went down (there aren't exactly 500 stocks in the index it seems?)

DAX - 1 up, 29 down

Hang Seng - all 50 went down

Gold was up a trivial amount in AUD but silver was down. 

*USD went up* relative to AUD (or you could say the AUD fell relative to USD) and that's probably the most significant thing I see at this point.


----------



## notting (12 September 2016)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, this is noteworthy I reckon, we we need to see how it unfolds....where is the scared money going to go?




Mine went more short gold Friday on slower ones to move down TRY, SLR and OGC which is still slow to behave! (due to rates rise perception) and resources (including mining services) and some financials today.
REITs in mind if there is a rotation from dividend stocks.  
Looking at the REITs reminded me that in the real world, we need about 10 qtr rate rises before we get in front of out banks and reits!! 2.5 years maybe? 
Hardly too much competition at this point! But hey, market has no brain.


----------



## qldfrog (13 September 2016)

notting said:


> Mine went more short gold Friday on slower ones to move down TRY, SLR and OGC which is still slow to behave! (due to rates rise perception) and resources (including mining services) and some financials today.
> REITs in mind if there is a rotation from dividend stocks.
> Looking at the REITs reminded me that in the real world, we need about 10 qtr rate rises before we get in front of out banks and reits!! 2.5 years maybe?
> Hardly too much competition at this point! But hey, market has no brain.



Notting,
more *short * gold or more *long *gold for your scared money?
What you wrote above means you believe gold will go down as people get scared which is not exactly common thinking?
I do not say it may not happen as it is hard to believe there is much sense in the financial market with negative interest, bond bubble, etc etc and an economy which will not handle any rate rise


----------



## notting (14 September 2016)

I've called the economists and politicians blind obecience to the cult of growth a pyramid system destined for the inevitable from day 1.
The day is getting closer.  I will say it again.
'you cannot grow for ever in a finite world.'
Welcome to reality

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000550709[/video]


----------



## notting (22 March 2017)

*Reasons you might want to take profits yesterday.*

Trumps horrible health care plan is not sailing through the senate like King Salman's yacht into Ibiza for some paid love. Therefor all Trumps other grand plans for spending will not be so easy either.  Like clocking up the debt to levels of utter insanity.
The debt in the US is already at insane levels and if interest rates rise, how are they even going to manage where it is let alone where Trump would take it. The bond markets are already in the biggest bubble in the history of the universe.
BREXIT is actually happening NOW.  What was most feared about BREXIT is actually happening e.g. - Goldman Sachs is halving its London workforce to 3,000 and moving key operations to New York and continental Europe, particularly Frankfurt, where it could move up to 1,000 staff. The Scotts are not making it any prettier either. London is the Europe's Financial capital.  If Goldman is going they will all most likely go to a fair degree.
The retailers in bricks and mortar retail are still being destroyed due to online shopping. If Trump brings in protectionist taxes, buying stuff will get a lot more expensive, people will slow down on it, a recession in the consumer driven USA is likely and also a more obvious trade war backlash against what China has been doing for about 30 years.
People are losing confidence in the oil price recovery which could cause all kinds of sovereign disruptions as some countries like Russia and Venezuela start to struggle with debt too.

We have had an 8 year bull market, complacency is everywhere and the ridiculous Trump love in on Wall street has finally ended with the empty bottles of cool Aid all over the tables. Old Cheeto face is starting to look a little pale and you know what happens to the celebrity president when people tire of the novelty, remembering the royal wedding and Lady Die.
Not to mention a Trump impeachment over Russia or any number of other things that will come to be known.


----------



## MrBurns (22 March 2017)

I think we're about to go under, too much debt in housing etc etc 
I've got over the statutory guarantee limit in cash at the Bank of Melbourne but I'm thinking I should start thinking about gold.
If I buy gold stocks will they just go down with the rest of the market ?
Not keen on physical gold...
Where's the best place to invest in gold ? any suggestions ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 March 2017)

MrBurns said:


> Where's the best place to invest in gold ? any suggestions ?




The 1870s?


----------



## notting (22 March 2017)

Gold and shorting financials is where I'm finding myself.
RIETS next in line when people realize nothing is safe, especially the Ausi housing market as Government and Reserve Bank governors are falling over themselves to find a way of bringing it to heal.  Let alone simple fundamentals


----------



## MrBurns (22 March 2017)

Gold......so where in what ??? I need a bit of guidance.


----------



## rb250660 (22 March 2017)

This bloke know where the gold is. Follow him to the gold!


----------



## notting (6 April 2017)

Selling Gold now.
Why?  Given it seems risk aversion may be turning back on?
The Trump Xi dinner date of the century will probably not end with coffee in Trump tower but nor will it end with Trump being thrown out the window.
Fizzle, nothing.
Gold has run up on the threat of an all out trade war.  Not going to happen. China has been firing all cannons in a trade war for about 50 years whilst the rest of the world did nothing.

But mainly If the Fed is going to start hoovering up the easy money that is not a good thing for the gold price.
If things get hairy gold could still perform but downside risk is a little strong to be holding especially as risk off tends to strengthen US$ too, so a few too many things sitting on top of the gold price right here to stay long.


----------



## qldfrog (6 April 2017)

notting said:


> ownside risk is a little strong to be holding especially as risk off tends to strengthen US$ too,



isn't it a big conflicting:
USD goes up but gold go down does not mean an Aussie would not be better off sticking to gold (as gold price is expressed in USD)
USD up 10%, gold down 10% in usd and I end up even


----------



## skc (6 April 2017)

qldfrog said:


> isn't it a big conflicting:
> USD goes up but gold go down does not mean an Aussie would not be better off sticking to gold (as gold price is expressed in USD)
> USD up 10%, gold down 10% in usd and I end up even




Yes... but you will find that Aussie gold stocks have much strong correlation to US gold price than $AUD gold price.


----------



## notting (28 June 2017)

OK I have rung the bell a few times but this time I think we could get back some volatility.
The US and international markets have largely been profoundly calm and boring.
Central banks are looking to bite, overvaluations are being called.
Surely we get some now!
I sold a lot today.
(Last time I called it the market was at this 5750 level and we bounced but are back here again, and bounced again today. Yet The S&P kept going and is still close to record highs.  It had it's biggest fall for while last night and finished on it's lows along with all the central bank hawkishness and death for nations who depend on oil to live, the 10 year bull gotta be getting a bit sick!)


----------



## MrBurns (28 June 2017)

Same can be said for property people ave been calling "bubble" for years but it keeps going up, when it goes down it will be catastrophic , spread your money between banks as I don't think they will be immune.


----------



## notting (28 June 2017)

They have done plenty of rule changes that should make investors in property portfolios think twice.
Apartment blocks will be where the opportunities come from, not so much house and land.
Banks should come off in a general sell down but are still paying good dividends and have government backing so If you can hold out then you don't need to worry too much about actually bankruptcies there.

What should really be troubling is that the Trump agenda is not going to do what the market is pricing it to do.  IMF just downgraded growth in US and Trump and US markets have bet everything on 3% growth minimum to cover debt ceiling and government spending that bet is going to *LOSE.*


----------



## MrBurns (28 June 2017)

Rates here are too low and thousands have multiple properties on interest only loans, they will be first out the door when it becomes clear rates are rising and capital gains are finished, that will bring the market down as a whole...it's like watching grass grow but the process is underway right now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 June 2017)

notting said:


> What should really be troubling is that the Trump agenda is not going to do what the market is pricing it to do.  IMF just downgraded growth in US and Trump and US markets have bet everything on 3% growth minimum to cover debt ceiling and government spending that bet is going to *LOSE.*




Stocks in the third stage of a bull market.

Stocks highly valued on any normally used measure.

Fed raising interest rates and says they'll continue to do so.

Lots of things at extremes in the financial world.

Various divergences starting to appear.

Market breadth isn't terrible but a small number of big caps have accounted for a very disproportionate share of recent gains in the US.

Credit growth, car sales and so on starting to roll over.

The only thing I can think of that's normally seen around the time of a major market top but which is absent at the moment is a surge in oil prices.

It's not rocket science to predict what's coming although as always getting the timing right is the hard bit.


----------



## notting (10 August 2017)

China is doing everything to get US embroiled in North Korea -



> North Korea has hit back at threats of "fire and fury" from Donald Trump, *branding his warning "a load of nonsense".* It also issued an update on plans for a missile strike near the Pacific territory of Guam, saying preparations should be ready in a matter of days.




The new sanctions on Russia will have positioned Putin behind China to disrupt the US and most likely the rubbish economic numbers that China releases will unravel soon so they need the distraction and disruption and third party to blame.
Even without all that the valuations in the US Markets and in Aus property relative to inflation and wage stagnation would make one want to get out for the moment, or get short


----------



## grah33 (16 September 2017)

U think it's worth putting our money (savings) in different bank accounts?  what might happen if the asx and world stock markets crashed?


----------



## MrBurns (16 September 2017)

grah33 said:


> U think it's worth putting our money (savings) in different bank accounts?  what might happen if the asx and world stock markets crashed?



I did exactly that 3 weeks ago


----------



## grah33 (16 September 2017)

MrBurns said:


> I did exactly that 3 weeks ago



maybe i should split it into cba, anz, and something else. it's not much 

but with banks failing, what might happen?  maybe they'll restrict  how much money we can take out or something..


----------



## MrBurns (16 September 2017)

grah33 said:


> maybe i should split it into cba, anz, and something else. it's not much
> 
> but with banks failing, what might happen?  maybe they'll restrict  how much money we can take out or something..



Govt guarantee is $250k per major bank, that's all you can do.
I have no sharemarkets investing skills and it's been tanking for a while anyway. It's a bit scary at the moment, better safe than sorry.


----------



## grah33 (16 September 2017)

u mean if i got less than 250 k the bank should let me take it all out if disaster does indeed strike?


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 September 2017)

MrBurns said:


> I have no sharemarkets investing skills and it's been tanking for a while anyway.



Tanking? 

The All Ords has been going sideways yes but I wouldn't say it was "tanking" since it's within a few % of the post-GFC high.

That said, it has never regained the high of a decade ago and does look pretty sick compared to the US market in particular.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 September 2017)

grah33 said:


> u mean if i got less than 250 k the bank should let me take it all out if disaster does indeed strike?



In theory at least the Australian Government guarantees deposits of up to $250K per bank so your money is safe so long as government honors that guarantee and can find the money to pay up.

In practice if some minor bank such as Mystate went bust (hypothetically, I'm not saying they're in trouble etc it's just an example of a relatively small financial institution) then no doubt government could and would pay up. 

But if we're talking about one or all of the "Big 4" banks going broke then all hell will break loose in Australia at that point and I wouldn't be counting on any guarantee from anyone. Just about every business in the country would have at least some problems and the economic consequences would be severe indeed. No chance government is going to paper over the cracks if they're really that wide. That's end of the world as we know it "guns and tinned food" type stuff really.

Personally I'm not expecting the big banks to go bust although statistically we're long overdue for a recession. We'll get one at some point and at least half the working age population has no prior experience of such a situation so they're in for a rather massive shock when it comes.


----------



## crackajack (17 September 2017)

Recession what is that? Don't worry our governments will look after it. She'll be right mate lol.


----------



## satanoperca (17 September 2017)

MrBurns said:


> Govt guarantee is $250k per major bank, that's all you can do.



Mr Burns, you may want to investigate this further. My understanding is the big 4 banks are guaranteed up to $20B each, that does not cover all or even the majority of their deposits. 

You will more likely see if the bank was to fail, get 50 cents back in the dollar.

Payouts of deposits covered under the FCS are initially financed by the Government through a standing appropriation of $20 billion per failed ADI


----------



## CanOz (17 September 2017)

What the go if you have an offset loan and the bank has a bail in? Would they not want thier loans covered first?


----------



## MrBurns (21 September 2017)

satanoperca said:


> Mr Burns, you may want to investigate this further. My understanding is the big 4 banks are guaranteed up to $20B each, that does not cover all or even the majority of their deposits.
> 
> You will more likely see if the bank was to fail, get 50 cents back in the dollar.
> 
> Payouts of deposits covered under the FCS are initially financed by the Government through a standing appropriation of $20 billion per failed ADI




This is all I know....

https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/managing-your-money/banking 

*Government guarantee on deposits*
The Australian Government has guaranteed deposits up to $250,000 in Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) such as your bank, building society or credit union. This means that this money is guaranteed if anything happens to the ADI.

The cap applies per person and per ADI. So if you have $250,000 with one ADI and $250,000 with another, then both of your deposits are guaranteed. If you have more than $250,000 with one ADI then only up to $250,000 is guaranteed.

Some ADIs operate multiple brands or may offer deposit accounts under more than one brand name. However, they are still part of the same ADI. The guarantee covers deposits per ADI, not per brand name. For example, if you have multiple deposit accounts with brands that are owned by the same ADI, the guarantee will only apply to $250,000 of these funds in total. If this concerns you, make sure you know who the ADI is that you bank with.

In the case of joint accounts, each account holder is entitled to an individual guarantee up to $250,000.

The guarantee applies to all ADIs incorporated in Australia, including Australian-owned banks, foreign subsidiary banks, building societies and credit unions. To check which banks are covered by the guarantee see the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's list of ADIs.

The types of accounts covered by the guarantee are: savings accounts; call accounts; term deposits; current accounts; cheque accounts; debit card accounts; transaction accounts; personal basic accounts; cash management accounts; farm management deposits; pensioner deeming accounts; mortgage offset accounts, either 100 per cent or partial offset that are separate deposit accounts; trustee accounts; and retirement savings accounts.

For more details see APRA's Financial Claims Scheme website.

If you see this seal on letters or brochures relating to your account, you'll know that your account is covered by the guarantee.

This is an example only - you may see it in other colours. Your financial institution does not have to use or display the seal. If it chooses not to display it, that doesn't mean your account is not guaranteed.

See the ASIC website for the rules on how the seal can be used.

If you are not sure whether your account is guaranteed, ask your financial institution.


----------



## satanoperca (21 September 2017)

The devil is always in the detail.

Govnuts don't always want to tell the truth.

The above information is correct with exception that each ADi is only guaranteed to an amount, at least someone had some sense within the govnuts, but as it is hard to determine how many cents in your dollars are guaranteed based on a limited guarantee to each ADI (bank), better not confuse the public, cannot have a bank run or worse, more people moving the assets in to property.


----------



## notting (15 November 2017)

When will this thread finally come back to life?
Remember the fear of contagion over Greece GDP 195B
Well Venezuela GDP of 404B has just defaulted. Euro is splitting up and Trump is President.
Doesn't anybody care anymore!?


----------



## cynic (15 November 2017)

notting said:


> When will this thread finally come back to life?
> Remember the fear of contagion over Greece GDP 195B
> Well Venezuela GDP of 404B has just defaulted. Euro is splitting up and Trump is President.
> Doesn't anybody care anymore!?



Truly amazing how polarities have reversed now that world markets have formed a dependency on palliative care.


----------



## Value Collector (15 November 2017)

notting said:


> When will this thread finally come back to life?
> Remember the fear of contagion over Greece GDP 195B
> Well Venezuela GDP of 404B has just defaulted. Euro is splitting up and Trump is President.
> Doesn't anybody care anymore!?




Meh, people are still buying cokes, eating salmon, visiting Disneyland, having honey on toast, using ketchup, buying cars, having hot showers, charging phones, flying in planes etc etc etc.

So I am not worried, lol


----------



## luutzu (15 November 2017)

notting said:


> When will this thread finally come back to life?
> Remember the fear of contagion over Greece GDP 195B
> Well Venezuela GDP of 404B has just defaulted. Euro is splitting up and Trump is President.
> Doesn't anybody care anymore!?




I know right?

Remember when Greece defaulting was scaring the market all over the world. 

Greece is still the problem. Now came more real wars famine and economic blockades in the Middle East, expanding into Africa. There's S.America, Asia Pacific; freaking Russia screwing with American democracy by spending $100k on FB ads...

The new normal or the media is too focus on the spate of sexual assaults and rape by practically every rich and famous white dude it seem.


----------



## luutzu (15 November 2017)

Value Collector said:


> Meh, people are still buying cokes, eating salmon, visiting Disneyland, having honey on toast, using ketchup, buying cars, having hot showers, charging phones, flying in planes etc etc etc.
> 
> So I am not worried, lol




That's a very specific list of goods and services you own shares in


----------



## Value Collector (15 November 2017)

luutzu said:


> That's a very specific list of goods and services you own shares in




Yeah it was modelled after my own portfolio if you didn't guess, I could of added more products and services, But I thought that was enough to get my point across, hahaha


*"Fidelity Fiduciary Bank"* is one of my all time favourite investment songs (not many investment songs exist), and when I sing along to in in the car or shower, I change the words to list the businesses I invest in, corny but I am a bit of a weirdo, lol.

At the 50 second mark is the part where  change the words


----------



## luutzu (15 November 2017)

Value Collector said:


> Yeah it was modelled after my own portfolio if you didn't guess, I could of added more products and services, But I thought that was enough to get my point across, hahaha
> 
> 
> *"Fidelity Fiduciary Bank"* is one of my all time favourite investment songs (not many investment songs exist), and when I sing along to in in the car or shower, I change the words to list the businesses I invest in, corny but I am a bit of a weirdo, lol.
> ...





Yea, to say people still shaves with Gillette's, breaky with Heinz baked beans or Capillano's Manuka on toast while re-watching Star Wars in preparation for the Last Jedi...   would go a bit far.

I never realised that that was a song about investing. I've always thought the old banker was there to show how a person who cared too much for money ends up wishing he'd spent more time singing in the rain or something. 

Yea, a bit of a weirdo I'd say. But at least you didn't take financial advise from Ebeneezer Scrooge. So there's hope yet.

I remember watching A Christmas Carol every Christmas and once, for only a second, thought he went a bit far with throwing away all the debt. Maybe reduced the interest rate or go through case by case... They're not all Timmy's dad's situation you know


----------



## Value Collector (15 November 2017)

luutzu said:


> I never realised that that was a song about investing. I've always thought the old banker was there to show how a person who cared too much for money ends up wishing he'd spent more time singing in the rain or something.





In that scene they are trying to convince Michael to invest his tuppence in the bank, but he just really wants to use it to feed the birds. It's a story of balancing work commitments and family commitments.

There is quite a lot of metaphor in the movie, for example "Feed the Birds, tuppence a bag" is a song that Mary Poppins sings, She is singing to the father, in the metaphor the Birds are the children, and she is saying it doesn't cost anything (tuppence) to give your kids love and show them you care.

Mary Poppins and Saving mr banks are two of my favourite movies.


----------



## luutzu (15 November 2017)

Value Collector said:


> In that scene they are trying to convince Michael to invest his tuppence in the bank, but he just really wants to use it to feed the birds. It's a story of balancing work commitments and family commitments.
> 
> There is quite a lot of metaphor in the movie, for example "Feed the Birds, tuppence a bag" is a song that Mary Poppins sings, She is singing to the father, in the metaphor the Birds are the children, and she is saying it doesn't cost anything (tuppence) to give your kids love and show them you care.
> 
> Mary Poppins and Saving mr banks are two of my favourite movies.






This is the only thing I remember from Mary Poppins



You're not going to tell me there's hidden meanings and layered life's lessons there too right?

Served me right for watching Bruce Lee, Jackie Chan and Stallone growing up.

At least I married well as the wife's favourite books and movies include Mary Poppins, Bedknob and Broomsticks or something. A bit more culture and refinement for the kids 

Saving Mr Banks was a surprisingly good movie. Can't remember much of it beside Mary being based on a nanny that save her family's with her Colin Farrell's father being sick or drunk. Didn't know the author was Australian. 

You've probably seen The Founder. There's a few lessons I took away from it. 

There's an upcoming The Current War, staring that Cumberbach guy as Thomas Edison. Looks pretty good.


----------



## Value Collector (16 November 2017)

luutzu said:


> At least I married well as the wife's favourite books and movies include Mary Poppins, Bedknob and Broomsticks or something. A bit more culture and refinement for the kids




Lol, I grew with an older sister, so those were staple viewing for me growing up.


> Saving Mr Banks was a surprisingly good movie. Can't remember much of it beside Mary being based on a nanny that save her family's with her Colin Farrell's father being sick or drunk. Didn't know the author was Australian.




Mary came to save the father, as Walt put it "maybe he wasn't saved in life, But we will save him in imagination" Thats why in the Mary Poppins movie the Dad over comes his struggles, mends the kite and lives happily, Unfortunately the real Mr Banks Died.

This ending scene gets me every time, Partly becasue I can relate some of it to personal struggles within both mine and my parents life.




But hey this thread is about the ASX, It won't be to long and we will all be singing this song.

Listen in at the 5.15 Mark for my longterm prediction on the ASX, Kindly presented by Disney's News Boys.


----------



## luutzu (16 November 2017)

Value Collector said:


> Lol, I grew with an older sister, so those were staple viewing for me growing up.
> 
> 
> Mary came to save the father, as Walt put it "maybe he wasn't saved in life, But we will save him in imagination" Thats why in the Mary Poppins movie the Dad over comes his struggles, mends the kite and lives happily, Unfortunately the real Mr Banks Died.
> ...





You're probably right about the market taking off soon enough. People tend to rush in once the water's fine and rising.

Yea, let's stick to stocks lest we get to the part where your sister braided your hair or you wanting a doll toy too because your sister has one. A boy doll, like Ken, of course.


----------



## notting (16 November 2017)

You guys are weird.
This is my most memorable movie scene -


----------



## luutzu (16 November 2017)

notting said:


> You guys are weird.
> This is my most memorable movie scene -





That's one of the best movies ever made I reckon.


----------



## notting (20 November 2017)

I don't like Bulls unless I'm eating them.
Finally I see a little dinner coming......
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/16/art-cashin-sees-trouble-brewing-in-stock-market.html


----------



## notting (3 February 2018)

The Dow fell *666 *points the 9th biggest one day points loss.
The God Lunatics may find this meaningful


----------



## notting (4 February 2018)

If China and Putin are colluding, then a bit of a subtle 'bond buying strike' by the Chinese at the right time could make for some 'interesting,' days ahead!

Stocks aren't yielding that well at these levels and so much credit fueled cheap buy backs have taken place, this could make for an aggressive reversal especially if inflation kicks in from the new player - 'tax cuts.' 

It's not too hard to see the toxic cocktail that should fuel high desire for a quick stock market exit with less tax on profits whilst they are still there!

A 40% thumping is not out of the question nor is it that extreme given that would only step us back to the November 2016 elections!  It would be like a 40% correction even though technically its a bear at 20.


----------



## notting (5 February 2018)

I promise I'm not panicking


----------



## notting (6 February 2018)

Largest intraday sell off on the DOW in history.
Cracked 50 day moving average with no bids, big panic machines went nuts. Now recovering from that looking for a bottom.


----------



## notting (6 February 2018)

There were record inflows into US ETFs in January.
No macro scare on the table unless it's Trump vs the FBI.  Do we feel like we want to turn to Trump for a cool hand to guide the ship at this point or renew our faith in the US as the global leader?
On the positive - the 10 year was clipped a fraction!!!


----------



## CanOz (6 February 2018)

There was a 20 point spread on the dax...incredible


----------



## Country Lad (6 February 2018)

CanOz said:


> There was a 20 point spread on the dax...incredible




Yep, had everything including the small dead cat at the end.

Maybe I should have posted my reply to kid hustlr here instead.


----------



## kid hustlr (6 February 2018)

To All Traders/investors:

- Remember your rules
- Stick to your plan


----------



## greggles (6 February 2018)

I've been waiting to post in this thread. 

Panic stations everyone. The ASX will be tanking big time today. Let's document the carnage as it happens.


----------



## cynic (6 February 2018)

Is it time to panic yet? 
(Or will this turn out to be just another VI buying opportunity?)


----------



## cynic (6 February 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> To All Traders/investors:
> 
> - Remember your rules
> - Stick to your plan



Too late! I hit the eject button on mine this morning!!


----------



## Country Lad (6 February 2018)

Could make for an interesting opening today.  The worst of the match prices for the All Ord shares with 10 minutes to go are:


----------



## kid hustlr (6 February 2018)

Not exactly bouncing out here...


----------



## Roller_1 (6 February 2018)

surely a brexit style bounce coming up....................


----------



## greggles (6 February 2018)

As far as large caps go, BHP and banks being punished this morning.


----------



## systematic (6 February 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> To All Traders/investors:
> 
> - Remember your rules
> - Stick to your plan




...Ha! Love it!


----------



## tech/a (6 February 2018)

O-p-p-o-r-t-u-n-i-t-y


----------



## systematic (6 February 2018)

I'll be buying today (but that's pure coincidence - I would have been regardless)


----------



## lenny (6 February 2018)

XJO 200 day sma at 5,847 and 61.8% fib retracement at 5,838.
Bit of confluence down here if we can get a close above these levels.

Fair chance to get some mean reversion from these levels.


----------



## PZ99 (6 February 2018)

systematic said:


> I'll be buying today (but that's pure coincidence - I would have been regardless)



Same here. Tipped a few bank shares in the retirement fund.


----------



## CanOz (6 February 2018)

Two volatility products have been all but destroyed....https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/vo...r-demise-1517883143?__twitter_impression=true


----------



## notting (6 February 2018)

Magellan boss - Hamish Douglass agrees with -



notting said:


> Stocks aren't yielding that well at these levels and so much credit fueled cheap buy backs have taken place, this could make for an aggressive reversal especially if inflation kicks in from the new player - 'tax cuts.'




To paraphrase him - 'The tax cuts are like pouring fuel on the fire.'

Right after unprecedented support and central bank stimulation in the market for 10 years which has lead to these very high asset prices.
If the US economy starts to gather inflationary steam the tax cuts will fuel it and the bond market is reacting and will react quickly.  The central banks will be behind the curve and have to raise rates quickly.  That inflationary effect is going to be hard to get in front of.  Not forgetting all the funds being repatriated back into the states too!
We are in uncharted waters with respect to the possibility of an inflation bomb boooom!


----------



## CanOz (6 February 2018)

This inflationary effect is exactly what the macro tourist warned about several months ago on his blog....


----------



## notting (9 February 2018)

"The average bull market 'correction' is 13 percent over four months and takes just four months to recover," Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer said in a Jan. 29 report.
But the pain lasts for 22 months on average if the S&P falls at least 20 percent from its record high — past 2,298 — into bear market territory, the report said. The average decline is 30 percent for bear markets.
The last week of stock market drops has taken the S&P 500 into correction territory for the first time in two years.




PS Does anyone know what those black things are that those guys are holding against their heads?
Are they like comfort teddies or what?


----------



## notting (9 February 2018)

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/01/04/ralph-acampora-heres-why-im-so-bullish.html

It's the blind side of technical traders and I love it!
Although he was saying this on Thu, 4 Jan 2018 which was pretty impressive given the s&p did 7% in just over a month from that! Annualised that would be 84% for the year!
One thing that does stand out however is *XOM *wait for oil sentiment and technicals to look like it's going to turn back up, when ever that will be (71ish)


----------



## lenny (9 February 2018)

The chartist calling the XJO down to 5000 tonight. 
I didn't like the close below the 200 day today.


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 February 2018)

lenny said:


> The chartist calling the XJO down to 5000 tonight.
> I didn't like the close below the 200 day today.



5700 to 5630 support (if need be) and check "the 200 day" Sept./Oct. last year for closes below.


----------



## Kryzz (9 February 2018)

lenny said:


> The chartist calling the XJO down to 5000 tonight.
> I didn't like the close below the 200 day today.




I saw that tweeted earlier too, however the Chartist weekly newsletter went on to talk about how large short term declines are followed by above average market performance in the following 12 months.

Quarterly chart below for a muuuuch longer term perspective, higher highs and lower lows still being made in the XAO. Some people calling for a GFC2 already??


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2018)

WOW all scary stuff, lucky I bought in in 2007 at 6750, still holding hope this correction isn't going to hurt.


----------



## Value Collector (10 February 2018)

sptrawler said:


> WOW all scary stuff, lucky I bought in in 2007 at 6750, still holding hope this correction isn't going to hurt.




If you owned the local McDonald’s franchise, and had manager running it for you, would you be looking at the daily, weekly or yearly prices that franchises are trading at?

Or would you be more concerned with the quarterly profits generated that your family are living off?

I think you wouldn’t really care so much about the price of stores, you would just bank your profits and live life.

Owning the index is exactly the same, even if you bought the index right at the peak, if you just held and lived if dividends you have done a lot better than a cash investment.

No need to stress, just live if the steady flow of dividends/ business profits your investments are making.

Focusing to much on share price movements cause people to make silly decisions, and lose out.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 February 2018)

Kryzz said:


> I saw that tweeted earlier too, however the Chartist weekly newsletter went on to talk about how large short term declines are followed by above average market performance in the following 12 months.
> 
> Quarterly chart below for a muuuuch longer term perspective, higher highs and lower lows still being made in the XAO. Some people calling for a GFC2 already??
> 
> View attachment 86228



Yes I tend to believe this is correction after the tax reform and U.S. market strong surge higher.


----------



## Porper (10 February 2018)

lenny said:


> The chartist calling the XJO down to 5000 tonight.
> I didn't like the close below the 200 day today.




I believe the 200 day moving average is almost irrelevant used on our markets. Much more significant on U.S markets...to a large extent a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Chartist also said an excellent buying opportunity around 5000. A multi-year trend higher likely from there.


----------



## notting (10 February 2018)

Quick corrections tend to have quick recoveries.
That was quick! (The time it took to take out 10% from the top)
Traditionally a correction takes 3 to 4 months to play out.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (11 February 2018)

Speaking of muppets, I don't think that volume chart is right at all...also it's spelled "caveat".


----------



## Euclid's Arrow (11 February 2018)

The bubble looks to have popped.



Perhaps the Dow will pullback to the 61.8% Fib level around where the 200 weekly moving average currently is. Looking at the 1H chart, head and shoulders stands out, we might see further falls on Monday.




Buying the dips might not be the best trading strategy here. Tight, limited, small sized, high frequency trades into the lengthy candlesticks is the way I will look at playing this. Example below, although these trades were on the Jap225


----------



## lenny (12 February 2018)

Porper said:


> I believe the 200 day moving average is almost irrelevant used on our markets. Much more significant on U.S markets...to a large extent a self-fulfilling prophecy.
> The Chartist also said an excellent buying opportunity around 5000. A multi-year trend higher likely from there.



Yep, Nick is certainly bullish LT.
It's looking like a bit more down side pain in the first half of 2018 before a nice buying op.


----------



## notting (4 July 2018)

MFG down nearly 8%
PTM down nearly 9%
Gold stocks rocketing up.
Somethings happening man
Help Help ....................


----------



## notting (5 July 2018)

I'm more serious than you think.
So many stocks are rolling over and it's been covered up by the recent strength in the banks.

It's no coincidence.

Stock market selloffs, volatility blow-ups, collapsing crypto currencies. They're all the symptoms of an unfolding global credit squeeze, according to famed HSBC Holdings bond guru Steven Major. It just happens to be developing at a snail's pace.

Major and his team see what they call a "long list" of selloffs in risk markets across the world as evidence of the disruption wrought by tighter dollar liquidity. In response they've slashed their forecast for returns on German government bonds, turned more bearish on credit and become even more cautious on emerging-market debt.

"Market participants are typically looking for validation of a forecast from cyclical data or one-off events but the reality can be different," the bank's global head of fixed-income research wrote in a note on Wednesday. "We appear to be in the midst of a slow-motion credit crunch."

And with respect to banking stuff. GMA and MOC have been smashed just recently.
Unless of course everyone is selling everything to buy the banks.


----------



## tinhat (5 July 2018)

notting said:


> I'm more serious than you think.
> So many stocks are rolling over and it's been covered up by the recent strength in the banks.
> 
> It's no coincidence.
> ...




The ASX Forward PE ratio as at 30 June was 15.7 (See page 35, Guide to the Markets, Australia, 3Q 2018, J.P. Morgan) This is close to being within 1 standard deviation (15.8) from the long term average (14.2) for the ASX. In other words, the ASX forward PE ratio is at the top of its normal range (and has been for some time). So any change in sentiment towards risk-off and any adverse outlook for global growth (including risks to global trade) could result in a price correction or volatile sideways movement for some time.


----------



## kid hustlr (5 July 2018)

The bottom right panel really concerns me. I don't have the data & experience to infer if this is going to lead to a turn in the market but I will simply say that we have the market pushing higher with the breadth not supporting the push. This suggests there are less and less stocks participating in the push higher.

The stock market rotates through sectors from what I have seen so this could just be a blip on the radar but it's worth watching. Ever since the end of March lows breadth has rolled over.

Also interesting to see the spike in the 52 week highs several weeks back - could be a considered a blow off top?


----------



## PinguPingu (5 July 2018)

I'm keeping it light on the shares side, have a few shorts as hedges. As an econ grad this tariff thing is shitting me. If the China/US ones go through it will disrupt global supply chains and **** up the economic momentum we started to get. The trader in me will follow price, we're chopping around above support both here and in the US. 

The game is wait and see tbh.


----------



## gaius (5 July 2018)

The market of course is going to go up as trade war tensions ease. Trade war is just noise. It's nothing but attention grabbing negotiation tactics.


----------



## luutzu (5 July 2018)

gaius said:


> The market of course is going to go up as trade war tensions ease. Trade war is just noise. It's nothing but attention grabbing negotiation tactics.




Trade war is a tax on consumers. Consumers are already leveraged to their eyeballs.

With rising fuel, food, energy... now these tariffs that will raise prices and/or cut more jobs. I'm seriously beginning to think that Trump and his admin are either shorting the stock market or want to restart the world with a clean nuclear-contaminated slate.


----------



## notting (6 July 2018)

Trade war starts tomorrow.

For the sake of humanity the US should wipe the fuck3rs off the face of the earth.
I'm with Trump on this one.  China is 98% of all the plastic in the ocean the sh8t you've been getting in your email for the last 30 years, the shocking pollution(there are others on the carbon too) 
To save humanity only an extreme measure is going to get rid of the psychopath nation.  The lying cheats, thieves, murderers, torturers, invaders and illegal occupiers. Pretending Trump is the bully on this or China calling any one a bully is a total joke.
I can't show you what they do to 100s of millions of animals it will break your heart here's how they treat a peaceful, unarmed, aggressiveness in any way - monk.  The cowards need a gang to feels safe enough to beat to a pulp a monks who doesn't fight back in the slightest.  Cowards.


----------



## kid hustlr (6 July 2018)

Another forum member successfully ignored


----------



## BlownAccount (6 July 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Another forum member successfully ignored



Fair enough...hey how many have you got on the ignore list?


----------



## luutzu (6 July 2018)

notting said:


> Trade war starts tomorrow.
> 
> For the sake of humanity the US should wipe the fuck3rs off the face of the earth.
> I'm with Trump on this one.  China is 98% of all the plastic in the ocean the sh8t you've been getting in your email for the last 30 years, the shocking pollution(there are others on the carbon too)
> ...




I think that's a mock-beating. In front of the UN building in NY.

But yea, those commies are brutal. 

Though Trump aren't doing this for human rights, freedom and all that either. Neither are any country/trading partners really. The mighty Yuan ey.


----------



## notting (6 July 2018)

Yeah I think so. The real stuff is so much more horrible.

This is what a real bully looks like not so much like The Donald!! -


----------



## notting (12 July 2018)

I wouldn't know an Eliot wave if I was dumped by one.
But as a weekly chart would this be the end of the 5 wave thing.
Or can that 5th wave extend for a lot more?


----------



## tech/a (12 July 2018)

notting said:


> I wouldn't know an Eliot wave if I was dumped by one.
> But as a weekly chart would this be the end of the 5 wave thing.
> Or can that 5th wave extend for a lot more?
> 
> View attachment 88321




That's pretty clear notting.
Why stuff around with something that isn't remotely accurate?
Let alone trying to fit something to a chart?


----------



## notting (12 July 2018)

Thanks Quacks.
I was trying to figure out what Mr Radge was up to by cutting back on his longer term trending system.
I don't know what is clear or isn't about it other than the wave count and thought this might be part of his modeling as the recent highs would have made me think he'd be all in.
There maybe some momentum thing falling off as well, not sure myself.


----------



## Porper (12 July 2018)

notting said:


> I wouldn't know an Eliot wave if I was dumped by one.
> But as a weekly chart would this be the end of the 5 wave thing.
> Or can that 5th wave extend for a lot more?
> 
> View attachment 88321



It isn't a 5-wave move notting as you have wave-4 overlapping wave-1. Not allowed. I'll post a chart up with my interpretation when time.


----------



## Porper (12 July 2018)

notting said:


> I was trying to figure out what Mr Radge was up to




Radge doesn't use Elliott Wave for his systems as it's discretionary. It can't be coded.


----------



## mcgrath111 (12 July 2018)

I'm not sure if the ASX will 'tank', yet I a global pull back seems likely / which will draw the ASX to follow. 

A chart I like to follow, although I'm sure it will hold of little value for most, the CAPE index seems to offer some insight as to whether US equities are over bought. 




We're currently above GFC levels and approaching dot com level's. 

Hopefully some buying opportunity present if the ASX does 'tank'. 

VIX hasn't seen any volatility for some time now, maybe this 'trade war'will kick things off?


----------



## willy1111 (12 July 2018)

notting said:


> I was trying to figure out what Mr Radge was up to by cutting back on his longer term trending system.




What do you mean by this?

I follow Radge and am not aware of this. 

He has allocated more to his US strategies as that is moving along at a greater pace than asx.


----------



## notting (12 July 2018)

Whoops.  i think I miss interpreted this tweet it!!

"Good example of high beta investing. #*ASX* closed +0.81% higher. Main #*ASX* trend system (Growth Portfolio) added +1.57% yet is only 55% invested. That's how it rolls when you start with the strongest names."

I took it to mean they had been reducing positions which is not correct.


----------



## notting (13 July 2018)

Given the markets positive moves after Trumps whirlwind tour success of Europe indicate that people were more concerned about a trade war with Europe or NATO bust up than a trade war with China.
Hmmm.... then he gets home and slams more tarrifs on em all and the most highly hyped and anticipated reporting season in the history of the universe comes to an end. With it't tax boosts.
Then what? AAAAAAhhhhhhhhhhh...... 

c'mon it's been ten years. 
I have to be right in this thread at some point!


----------



## mcgrath111 (13 July 2018)

If there is a general consensus that the economy is looking eh, who's shorting the general market?


----------



## Porper (13 July 2018)

mcgrath111 said:


> If there is a general consensus that the economy is looking eh, who's shorting the general market?




 The market is forward looking...it doesn't move on what's happening now, but on future expectations.


----------



## Logique (17 July 2018)

That's a big long run-up in McGrath's CAPE index chart in post #2781 above, who says:_ "..We're currently above GFC levels and approaching dot com level's."  _

Bears are poised I'd have thought, as the down side risk is building. All this 'Trade War' rhetoric isn't helping either. TA indicators are well extended.


----------



## notting (11 October 2018)

Oh Jesus, No No Nooo

*Trump says the Federal Reserve has 'gone crazy'*




It's time to pardon Cosby and put him in charge, he has the credentials I can only dream about added the Donald .....


----------



## CanOz (11 October 2018)

Quite a drop over night, spectacular. Haven't seen a daily candle like that in a while....


----------



## Junior (11 October 2018)

notting said:


> Oh Jesus, No No Nooo
> 
> *Trump says the Federal Reserve has 'gone crazy'*




This was only a matter of time before he got stuck into the Fed.....Trump's taking credit for a strong economy is all based on super low interest rates.  With rates anywhere near normal, his slashing of taxes & growing budget deficits will be exposed as completely unsustainable.


----------



## kid hustlr (11 October 2018)

These IT & Growth names just getting carted


----------



## notting (11 October 2018)

I am happy to see Amazon getting waked. This is my all time stoke of hatred.
An expert was predicting it would go to 3000 in a year or two.
One theory doing the rounds in my head at the moment is that there has been a bit of a recovery in brick and morter retail in the US, all be it mixed.  But what is compelling is how Amazon has been investing in that sector!!!

So is this the great rotation out of digital back into real world stocks?
They call it from growth into value from dreaming to reality.

But it seems Amazon is pretty much stumped as to where to go from here with digital expansion to justify its PE of 170.  So it's using it's perceived value to try to buy things that do have some real value.
Amazing how so many fans of Amazon say how great it is whilst at the same time saying, ' It is, however, very hard to value !!! *WTF*'.. No it isn't.  It's massively overvalued and  these dicks just don't want to normalise that because it means it's going to pop and they are idiots caught up in the hyperbole.
Tech is popping.


----------



## luutzu (11 October 2018)

notting said:


> I am happy to see Amazon getting waked. This is my all time stoke of hatred.
> An expert was predicting it would go to 3000 in a year or two.
> One theory doing the rounds in my head at the moment is that there has been a bit of a recovery in brick and morter retail in the US, all be it mixed.  But what is compelling is how Amazon has been investing in that sector!!!
> 
> ...




It's "whacked". And also "albeit" not "all be it"


----------



## notting (11 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> It's "whacked". And also "albeit" not "all be it"



I still get their there wrong nearly every time, even though I know! There is no hope!


----------



## PZ99 (11 October 2018)

Presumably *WTF *stands for Where's The Finance ?


----------



## luutzu (11 October 2018)

notting said:


> I still get their there wrong nearly every time, even though I know! There is no hope!




I shouldn't be one to talk but yea. 

My 8 year old daughter is no longer impressed with my reading. She find my version of "Fox in Socks" too slow and too boring. The 6 year old still reckon it's pretty awesome though.


----------



## luutzu (11 October 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Presumably *WTF *stands for Where's The Finance ?




Yea, it's going to be fun for those over-leveraged companies ey.


----------



## tinhat (11 October 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Presumably *WTF *stands for Where's The Finance ?



Actually WTF stands for "*w*here is *t*he *f*un ... in worrying about debt!" Greatest President ever! Sad. Lucky for us Josh has found the dosh to bring forward the tax cuts.


----------



## PZ99 (12 October 2018)




----------



## Logique (19 October 2018)

IMHO, anyone who can read a chart will be defensively placed in regard to US stocks. Inevitably a US downturm flows on to the XAO in some way, safe haven status or not. 
If this weeks article from Marketwatch is a little extreme, I think it does signal the need for caution.







> Opinion: *The *[US]* stock market is overdue for a one-day 5% or 10% plunge*
> Published: 18 Oct 2018:
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...erdue-for-a-one-day-5-or-10-plunge-2018-10-18
> Friday is the anniversary of the 1987 stock-market crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22.6%
> ...


----------



## basilio (25 October 2018)

Robert Schiller offers his analysis of US stock markets and the questionable value currently placed on current stocks.

* Are US stock market highs justified, or is there a bubble? *
Robert Shiller
Massive earnings might reflect strength – but history suggests we should expect volatility

The US stock market, as measured by the monthly real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite Index, or S&P 500, has increased 3.3-fold since its bottom in March 2009. This makes the US stock market the most expensive in the world, according to the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio that I have long advocated. Is the price increase justified, or are we witnessing a bubble?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/24/us-stock-market-highs-bubble-earnings


----------



## Logique (13 November 2018)

Nasdaq down 2.8% overnight, including Apple down 5%. Beginning to look ugly.

"Death Cross" looks about to form on many indices. Already occurred in some cases.


----------



## kid hustlr (14 November 2018)

*I have very limited knowledge regarding the data below and there are many on this forum who could explain this in much better detail than me*

*I also remember reading a vanguard article about a number of these models and their limited accuracy over a long period of time (basic earnings yield was considered the mostt accurate)




- Data points are quarterly since 2000
- Earnings Yield is the Inverse of the ASX 200 P/E Ratio
- Market Premium is defined as (ASX 200 Earnings Yield - 10 year Aussie Gov Bond Yield)

- Current Earnings Yield approx 6.90%
- Current Market Premium approx 4.27


----------



## kid hustlr (14 November 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> *I have very limited knowledge regarding the data below and there are many on this forum who could explain this in much better detail than me*
> 
> *I also remember reading a vanguard article about a number of these models and their limited accuracy over a long period of time (basic earnings yield was considered the mostt accurate)
> 
> ...




https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf


----------



## Junior (15 November 2018)

Is Value Investing dead? Or set to make a comeback?


----------



## Logique (24 November 2018)

Really looking sick around the world. Not many bright spots for investors. 
But at least some relief for us at the petrol bowser. Oil price slumping, and the AUD is holding up above 70c


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 November 2018)

Logique said:


> Really looking sick around the world. Not many bright spots for investors.



I was thinking of that when looking at overseas markets last night.

It’s not down, up, down, up etc it’s just down, down and down. It’s a bit like watching ice melt really - it just shrinks it never gets bigger.

There’s a bottom somewhere surely?


----------



## Logique (24 November 2018)

Smurf, just a personal view, the bottom is a while off yet mate. Too much technical damage to unwind rapidly.  People are hoping for a "Santa Claus rally" into Christmas, but may only be wishful thinking.

On a more cheerful note, will your Christmas lights display once again be visible from space!


----------



## Struzball (25 November 2018)

When this panic thread was created, Greece was going to sink into the ocean, the market bottomed and subsequently rose when Europe decided to bail out Greece, and all was good again.. apparently.

At the moment it seems like a technical downturn, lower lows, technical corrrection, US tech stocks in a technical bear. 

Where/when is the panic currently?
Brexit.
Oil declines.
Australian house prices finally starting to unwind.

What happens to our "well positioned" banks when house prices decline 20% year on year?
First the home owners will see negative equity, Then the the banks see negative equity..
I guess there is no problem if house prices just keep going up..

Is there even any panic yet?  Should there be?

Will it only be the market bottom when somebody decides to bail someone out again?


----------



## cynic (25 November 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> I was thinking of that when looking at overseas markets last night.
> 
> It’s not down, up, down, up etc it’s just down, down and down. It’s a bit like watching ice melt really - it just shrinks it never gets bigger.
> 
> There’s a bottom somewhere surely?



Generally prices never go below that most dependable of all support levels, namely zero!
(Based upon this observation, I agree that the market most assuredly does have a bottom.)

Any price level above zero is fair game!


----------



## cynic (25 November 2018)

Struzball said:


> ...
> Where/when is the panic currently?
> Brexit.
> Oil declines.
> ...



Let's not forget about Italy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 November 2018)

Logique said:


> Smurf, just a personal view, the bottom is a while off yet mate. Too much technical damage to unwind rapidly.  People are hoping for a "Santa Claus rally" into Christmas, but may only be wishful thinking.
> 
> On a more cheerful note, will your Christmas lights display once again be visible from space!



My "world view" thinking was very much that we'd see a peak in the stock market (as in major markets - US etc) and sometime after that we'd see a peak in oil as the final thing to top out for this cycle. 

Well that sort of happened, they peaked a couple of weeks apart, but the subsequent plunge in the price of oil has been dramatic to say the least.

My thoughts at the moment are that we're in the range of a major top for stocks (particularly US). It may not be that the actual top is in place, it could be or it might be yet to come, but that in broad terms it's around here in terms of timing and value in the context of the long term (so monthly or quarterly charts not daily).

That's just how it looks to me fundamentally. Interest rates rising, business cycle is overdue for recession by all historic measures, markets are starting to wobble, etc.

As for the Christmas lights, well I've moved house so setting them up is a rather big task. Some will be up but not the lot, at least not by 1st December. First task has been to install power to connect them to which was done yesterday. Plus quite a few will need modifications to fit the new house hence some will be up but not all 25,000 or so.


----------



## lenny (2 December 2018)

I'm stating the obvious but any bounce is being sold, distribution the last two sessions.

Looks like at a minimum will at least retest lows, if they can't hold we will go lower quickly.


----------



## lenny (10 December 2018)

The wheels could really fall off the market today below the lows.


----------



## Struzball (10 December 2018)

Finally.. some lower lows.
Will be interesting to see if it closes at a new low.


----------



## MrChow (19 December 2018)

I agree with your sentiment Smurf.

I do think the timing is 6-12 months early given leading indicators appear to have a time buffer before they tick over.  But even saying that most of the window  would be spent recovering lost ground so don't see much upside from previous highs.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (21 December 2018)

Re-post this chart from gold thread...rebalancing opportunity for those holding both.


Government bonds and developed market cash have also done well out of this recent period...even more rebalancing opportunities!


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 December 2018)

Looks like this is the start of stock holders jumping from buildings and dousing themselves in petrol. Go hard turkeys.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 December 2018)

New lows, every couple of days it just goes lower, i reckon we will get another Trump bump when he goes..


----------



## Wysiwyg (22 December 2018)

Can't imagine a relief rally happening here after (our universal Master) Wall Streets continued desperate sell off last night. Who put them in charge anyway?


----------



## MrChow (22 December 2018)

In the history of the S&P500 how many decades have avoided a -33% loss?

Two
- 1950s
- 2010s

Imagine these threads when we're no longer in one of the most stable periods in financial history.


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## notting (28 December 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Can't imagine a relief rally happening here after (our universal Master) Wall Streets continued desperate sell off last night. Who put them in charge anyway?




Clearly imagining is not your thing!


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## Wysiwyg (31 December 2018)

notting said:


> Clearly imagining is not your thing!



Correct and good for me.


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## kid hustlr (5 January 2019)

Not sure where to post this.

Data since 2000
Earnings yield is the inverse of the ASX  200 P/E ratio
Market Premium is Earnings Yield - 10 year bond yield

I'm not great with this sort of thing but with the recent sell off we are starting to get 'out there' a little bit in terms of return distribution. Green line is where the market is at as at 01/01/19. Once can draw there own conclusions however since 2000 it's been an OK bet buying something and putting it in the bottom draw at this point historically.

This is where I need the smart guys in the room to step in!
@systematic 
@craft


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## InsvestoBoy (8 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> View attachment 91162
> 
> 
> Not sure where to post this.
> ...




Hi @kid hustlr,

P/E on it's own is not going to make you a good valuation measure and especially not as a comparator for "equity risk premium" calculations.

Suggest you read up a bit on this :

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc171009.htm
https://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070820.htm

What you'll see is that at a bare minimum, you really need to adjust the E for profit margins which are cyclical.

Generally speaking at the index level there are some better (as in, very high correlation to long term future returns) shorthand tools you can use. A few are demonstrated here:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140414.htm
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130318.htm

Shorthand Shiller PE model: 1.063 * (15 / ShillerPE)^(1/10) – 1 + Dividend_yield (decimal)
In this case, 6.3% is the long term nominal peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough growth in S&P500 earnings and 15 is the long term average of the Shiller PE for S&P500. You'd need to sub those values with ASX appropriate ones.

But if you plug those numbers in for the US you get: 
1.063 * (15/28.21)^(1/10) -1 + 0.021 ~= 0.01893460284280889128

i.e. the current forecast 10Y annual return for the S&P500 is 1.89%/pa. 

Plug that into the Sharpe ratio calculation using the 10Y US Gov bond yield and long term historical volatility of 15% you get:
(100*(1.063 * (15/28.21)^(1/10) -1 + 0.021) - (100*0.02689)) / 15 ~= -0.05303598104794072478

...negative forecast Sharpe ratio.


----------



## qldfrog (8 January 2019)

So bonds and cash...


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## kid hustlr (8 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Hi @kid hustlr,
> 
> P/E on it's own is not going to make you a good valuation measure and especially not as a comparator for "equity risk premium" calculations.
> 
> ...




thanks

FWIW I tried to quote you also in this thread but I couldnt work out how to spell your bloody name


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## InsvestoBoy (8 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> So bonds and cash...




...and maybe some gold?

Depending on your portfolio construction, it can be alright to hold equities even when valuations are high, because if you're maintaining constant weights, you're selling into valuation expansions and buying valuations compressions...


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## kid hustlr (8 January 2019)

investo Boy,

A couple of quick points:

- Those Hussman articles are 5 years old and the market is far higher than what they were predicting
- Have you read this? 

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf


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## InsvestoBoy (8 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> - Those Hussman articles are 5 years old and the market is far higher than what they were predicting




After 20+ years of outperforming Hussman badly underperformed since the GFC bottom (despite convincingly calling the bottom). Does that make the information wrong? Well, I'll leave that with you to read some more of his writings and think about.

If valuations were the only dictator of stock returns then we would never see equities become overvalued or undervalued. One thing that is obvious looking at market indexes historically is that overvalued markets can keep getting more overvalued and undervalued markets can keep getting more undervalued.

Did you know the Nikkei 225 had a CAPE of over 80 in the year 1990, just before the longest bear market in recent history? Or that S&P 500 had a CAPE of just a tad over 5 in 1982, just before US equities began one of the greatest bull markets of all time?

What's evident is that:
- Historically, valuations have proved extremely useful at predicting long run returns. Given that equities are a claim on a long run of future cash flows, this shouldn't be too surprising.
- Valuations are subsumed by investor sentiment in the short run and can over or under shoot (see here )
- Extreme over/undershoot on valuation expectations has historically led to extreme under/outperformance in the opposite direction going forward.

Anything could happen. Maybe investors will go crazy and bid equities up to CAPE of 80+ like they did in Japan in the 80s.

If they did, would that make equities at the current valuation good *investment*? Were US equities in 2013 a good investment, just because in hindsight "the market is far higher"? Were tech stocks a good investment in 1998?

Some people on this forum definitely have no issue riding a wave like that and will convincingly tell you they'll even be able to get out near the top.

My own strategy is to maintain a constant equity exposure as a % (25% to be precise) of my total portfolio, so while I'm long I'm periodically selling into insanity and buying despair.



> - Have you read this?
> 
> https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf



Yup I did read it a long time ago.


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## kid hustlr (9 January 2019)

Investo, I really appreciate these chats. Some comments/questions:

- 25% Equities seems low? I like the balancing aspect of your portfolio. How old are you (if I can ask that??)
- my key takeaway from the discussion above is that earnings multiples do matter but's its just not that simple due to a variety of factors. Long term the numbers do show that accumulating more aggressively when stocks are at a low CAPE ratio may be beneficial.

I personally subscribe to the Vanguard position of 'slowly accumulating consistently over a long period of time to achieve a roughly average return' with 2 caveats:
- I will try to be slightly more aggressive at perceived very low multiples assuming my personal circumstance allows
- I allocate a portion of my funds to trading to try to 'beat the market'

At some stage I'll need to assume a % in bonds/defensive but my view is I am far too young to take this approach at present.


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## Logique (9 January 2019)

Yes I noticed that 25% in equities as well. Perfectly understandable in the current down market, but over the long term, it doesn't seem much


----------



## qldfrog (9 January 2019)

No


Logique said:


> Yes I noticed that 25% in equities as well. Perfectly understandable in the current down market, but over the long term, it doesn't seem much



Not much but you would have made a killing in Japan..
When demographic are taken into account, a wise position in europe us..to a lower extend in Australia imho


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## InsvestoBoy (9 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> - 25% Equities seems low?




It's a 25% envelope for equity strategies/portfolios within a larger envelope that consists of identical allocations to cash, gold, bonds. Each being an envelope for strategies/portfolios on that asset/class. e.g. one month I might be 25% US Equity Momentum and the next month 25% Europe Value. In cash I might be USD, EUR, AUD, CNY depending. Bonds might be Gov or Corp, shifting up and down duration, etc. Gold is pretty much just gold although the beta of gold to various macro factors changes over time without me needing to do anything (right now mostly real rates) 

You can get an idea of why I might pursue this strat by looking at https://allocatesmartly.com/tactical-permanent-portfolio-gestaltu-investresolve/



> I like the balancing aspect of your portfolio




See https://gestaltu.com/2012/02/volatility-harvesting-and-the-importance-of-rebalancing.html/



> How old are you (if I can ask that??)




33 or 34 I think.



> I personally subscribe to the Vanguard position of 'slowly accumulating consistently over a long period of time to achieve a roughly average return'




When it comes to equities, people are conditioned to believe that they go up, and Vanguard can market this effectively largely because in the US and a few other lucky places, they have.

But this strategy is only going to work if the underlying businesses are profitable over the long term and you aren't paying too much more than the businesses are worth. What "accumulating consistently over a long period of time" is, is a bet. It's a bet that the underlying businesses remain profitable and that you're not overpaying. And Vanguard looks smart because that bet has paid off.

I don't think that marketing strategy would work for index fund investors in Japan, or Greece, Spain, Italy, etc.

Maybe we'll be as lucky as the last 50+ years were and businesses will stay as profitable and on offer for decent prices for another 50. Then all the "Bogleheads" and FIRE people will look smart. Maybe it won't turn out like that at all (debt, demographics, growth, profitability, etc).

Since I don't know, I try and pay a bit more attention than that.







> At some stage I'll need to assume a % in bonds/defensive but my view is I am far too young to take this approach at present.




I guess it's not surprising since this is a stock forum but I don't think most people understand precisely how bonds work in the global financial system or how they are priced.


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## fiftyeight (9 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> It's a 25% envelope for equity strategies/portfolios within a larger envelope that consists of identical allocations to cash, gold, bonds. Each being an envelope for strategies/portfolios on that asset/class. e.g. one month I might be 25% US Equity Momentum and the next month 25% Europe Value. In cash I might be USD, EUR, AUD, CNY depending. Bonds might be Gov or Corp, shifting up and down duration, etc. Gold is pretty much just gold although the beta of gold to various macro factors changes over time without me needing to do anything (right now mostly real rates)




As we have discussed before I do see the value in the approach being discussed

BUT

Are you not now strategy picking (within your envelopes) instead of stock picking? Bit hard to back test your dynamic system, and compare it to the very systematic approaches discussed in the papers above.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (9 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> Are you not now strategy picking (within your envelopes) instead of stock picking? Bit hard to back test your dynamic system, and compare it to the very systematic approaches discussed in the papers above.




Correct, but the turnover on strategies is quite low!

That said, I'm constantly learning and reading about strategies, investment managers, investment products, etc. If I find something I feel is a better option after due diligence and consideration of long term risks then I will switch at my discretion.

What I'm talking about is factor exposure and trend/volatility management and these days a lot of ETFs and managed funds which wrap those kind of things are popping up in the US markets.

So you could backtest using those for a decent approximation.


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## Junior (9 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> When it comes to equities, people are conditioned to believe that they go up, and Vanguard can market this effectively largely because in the US and a few other lucky places, they have.
> 
> But this strategy is only going to work if the underlying businesses are profitable over the long term and you aren't paying too much more than the businesses are worth. What "accumulating consistently over a long period of time" is, is a bet. It's a bet that the underlying businesses remain profitable and that you're not overpaying. And Vanguard looks smart because that bet has paid off.




I've never heard this theory before.  I think this is an odd way to look at equity markets & index funds.  If you believed that it's "only a bet" you may as well stick with cash, and maybe gold.


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## InsvestoBoy (9 January 2019)

Junior said:


> I've never heard this theory before.  I think this is an odd way to look at equity markets & index funds.  If you believed that it's "only a bet" you may as well stick with cash, and maybe gold.




It’s not a theory!

If you believe that mindlessly investing in equities over time will always lead to “average returns” (whatever those are), because they did in the past in your lucky corner of the world *it’s a bet* that the businesses you’re buying will remain profitable and you’re not overpaying.

The drivers of equity returns over the long run are well understood by academics and practitioners alike, there is no theoretical component.


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## InsvestoBoy (9 January 2019)

Some people just don’t really seem to grasp how lucky we are.


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## kid hustlr (9 January 2019)

Investo,

This is really good stuff. It's interesting comparing your thoughts/comments to some of the work Craft has put on this forum in the past regarding long term results/returns and his viewed preferred approach.

 I have 2 underlying views:
- The more you know about this stuff the more you should touch your portfolio
- The majority of people who play the market are likely too aggressive/exposed whilst the those who know nothing about the market are likely heavily under-exposed

I'll admit the demographic factors you mentioned play on my mind to a degree and I think a long term investor can do several small things to 'tilt the odds' in their favour a fraction however the more i learn the more I like a consistent, long term approach based largely around equities.



InsvestoBoy said:


> Some people just don’t really seem to grasp how lucky we are.




I thank my lucky stars every day


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## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

Spotted this today, good timing for you @kid hustlr 

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wait-for-the-fat-pitch-buy-and-hold-vs-active-management/


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## fiftyeight (10 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Spotted this today, good timing for you @kid hustlr
> 
> https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wait-for-the-fat-pitch-buy-and-hold-vs-active-management/




You need your own thread


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## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> You need your own thread




Didn't you see my yearly XAO prediction?! This *is* my thread...


----------



## kid hustlr (10 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Spotted this today, good timing for you @kid hustlr
> 
> https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wait-for-the-fat-pitch-buy-and-hold-vs-active-management/




Good Stuff,

Investo - some more questions/comments:

- I feel as though you are making the point that most people can't handle the max draw down associated with 100% equities. I agree
- You haven't really gone into detail as to why the 'risk parity' model you prefer is *not a bet* vs holding equities which is a bet.
- Given the historically extreme low levels of bonds, does the risk parity model concern you?

Trying to ask the tough questions!!!


----------



## Junior (10 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> It’s not a theory!
> 
> *If you believe that mindlessly investing in equities over time will always lead to “average returns” (whatever those are)*, because they did in the past in your lucky corner of the world *it’s a bet* that the businesses you’re buying will remain profitable and you’re not overpaying.




I never said anything about achieving average returns.



> When it comes to equities, people are conditioned to believe that they go up, and Vanguard can market this effectively largely because in the US and a few other lucky places, they have.




I'm responding to this statement that people are conditioned to think equities always go up, are you saying that investing in say, the Vanguard Int'l Share Index Fund for example, is not highly likely to provide you with a return well above inflation over the long term?  I think it is more than just a bet, to assume that global equity indices, on the whole, are likely to rise over the long term.  

As you said, there are many well-understood drivers behind this.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> - I feel as though you are making the point that most people can't handle the max draw down associated with 100% equities. I agree




Am I making a specific point? I didn't actually realise that, your scatter plot charts just kind of set me rolling...



> - You haven't really gone into detail as to why the 'risk parity' model you prefer is *not a bet* vs holding equities which is a bet.




I didn't say holding equities is a bet! I said mindlessly investing in equities over time with an expectation you will receive an average return is a bet.

I don't remember mentioning risk parity is the model I prefer.

Some of my strategies within an envelope include volatility management but that's because if you are holding a name in the resource sector with a historical volatility of 86% annualised, you generally want to manage that.

I've usually found myself on the other side of risk parity portfolio transactions...if any of the 4 asset classes takes a big tumble it results in a spike in volatility, risk parity is selling down that asset class and I am increasing the allocation to that envelope.



> - Given the historically extreme low levels of bonds, does the risk parity model concern you?




I'm not concerned about my bond allocation if that is what you're asking, I don't allocate a % of my money to bonds based on their volatility, I allocate a fixed % of my money regardless of it!


----------



## Junior (10 January 2019)

btw not arguing or trying to give you a hard time.  Interested in your thinking around this, don't hear many criticisms of the theory behing Index investing these days.


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## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

Junior said:


> are you saying that investing in say, the Vanguard Int'l Share Index Fund for example, is not highly likely to provide you with a return well above inflation over the long term?




I'm saying it's not that simple and I also showed some shorthand calculations earlier which show the expected long run (10-12Y) return currently is probably less than inflation given the current position of valuations and profit margins.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 January 2019)

Junior said:


> don't hear many criticisms of the theory behing Index investing these days.



There's always a bubble forming somewhere.

My thinking, and this goes back well before the recent correction, is that one of the current bubbles is index investing.

By that I mean not any specific fund but the broad concept that simply throwing money at the market and waiting is a guaranteed way to wealth.

It will end as all bubbles do is my expectation. My thinking there isn't new, this one seems to have been going quite a while and the presence of the index funds seems to have distorted the underlying market itself to some extent, creating a situation where most of the action is in the largest components of the index.

As an exercise to prove the point, go to any non-financial related forum. Doesn't matter what topic so long as it's not finance, economics or investment related. Find that forum's "off topic" or "general chat" section and post a thread asking how to invest. Play dumb and pretend to know nothing. 

Almost certainly the answer you get to that question will involve buy and hold investing in index funds with the only question being what fund and the detail of how you buy into it. That's all the proof you need that that's where any bubble is going to be, the masses have the notion firmly in their mind that index funds are essentially foolproof.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I'm saying it's not that simple and I also showed some shorthand calculations earlier which show the expected long run (10-12Y) return currently is probably less than inflation given the current position of valuations and profit margins.



I haven't tried to put any precise figures on it but as a broad concept, well if you look at past cycles investing when valuations were low produced high returns over the next decade and vice versa.


----------



## kid hustlr (10 January 2019)

Thanks investo,

Apologies if I've used the term risk parity incorrectly.

I guess the question I'm asking is, why do you think your envelope strategy (which I'm reading as 1/4 gold, 1/4 US equities, 1/4 bonds, 1/4 cash) will perform strongly in the future?

Would your allocations be different if the US stock market was currently trading on a trailing P/E of 5?


----------



## Junior (10 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I'm saying it's not that simple and I also showed some shorthand calculations earlier which show the expected long run (10-12Y) return currently is probably less than inflation given the current position of valuations and profit margins.




Thanks for the response.  I've re-read your posts and links, I am more clear about what you're saying now.  I like index funds but very much believe in active investing in terms of re-balancing and managing exposure across asset classes & sub-asset classes.

The next 12 months will be very interesting.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> I guess the question I'm asking is, why do you think your envelope strategy (which I'm reading as 1/4 gold, 1/4 US equities, 1/4 bonds, 1/4 cash) will perform strongly in the future?




It's more like, I don't know what the future will hold and have therefore weighted accordingly.

There is an equal weight ETF on the ASX called MVW. They wrote a couple of whitepapers at launch:
"Why Equal Weighting Outperforms – The Mathematical Explanation": https://www.vaneck.com.au/why-equal-weighting-outperforms/

and

"The unequalled power of equal weight investing": https://www.vaneck.com.au/the-unequalled-power-of-equal-weight-investing/

If those links aren't working you can find them linked here: https://www.vaneck.com.au/funds/mvw/snapshot/

If you have a read through those you can get an idea of some of the things going on in my head.

Plug this: "equal weight siteapers.ssrn.com" into google and you can read some academic papers on the topic.



> Would your allocations be different if the US stock market was currently trading on a trailing P/E of 5?




I don't invest purely on value so I'm not sure, but probably not. I think the highest I'd probably go is 75%.


----------



## kid hustlr (10 January 2019)

Is there a discussion to be had regarding the benefits of passive investing with regards to taxation?

If I never sell I never pay tax on the cap gains. The more active I am the more tax becomes a factor


----------



## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Is there a discussion to be had regarding the benefits of passive investing with regards to taxation?
> 
> If I never sell I never pay tax on the cap gains. The more active I am the more tax becomes a factor




Sure...

Recent paper that was decent on this topic: https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/12/26/is-active-alpha-enough-to-cover-taxes/

Personally, because I'm still working with a decent income and pretty frugal living, usually my monthly savings are much larger than the monthly variance in my portfolio. So very often I am "rebalancing" by buying more of whatever has become underweight as my cash goes overweight on payday.

But sometimes the markets will go nuts (like they did since September till Jan) and I'll be forced to do an active rebalance at one of my predefined rebalancing dates or variance triggers. That's a choice for me! I could simply let my paychecks catch up into the underweights if I don't want to take a tax hit on selling overweights.

In any case for me, those rebalancings still constitute a smallish % of the overall, e.g. if I'm holding $100,000 in equities and they go up by 10% while everything else is the same, now I'm holding $110,000 and I'm going to sell down $7,500 to bring it back in line. At tax time I'm only paying CGT on that $7,500 offset by whatever losses I booked, not the whole thing.


----------



## kid hustlr (10 January 2019)

Also commission is a factor!

Love your work investo


----------



## InsvestoBoy (10 January 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Also commission is a factor!




I feel like I've written this several times on here over the last few days but get an Interactive Brokers account!

I recently made a $27,000~ USD value trade on the NASDAQ and the commission was $1.20 USD plus like 56c AUD in FX conversion fee.

It used to be a huge pain to set up an IB account so I never did but recently I discovered the process is a breeze and pretty happy with their offering.


----------



## kid hustlr (10 January 2019)

I have IB and I like it.

Bit of a pain come tax time but hard to argue with the cost


----------



## Logique (11 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> You need your own thread



Along similar lines, there is some good current discussion in the latest series of posts about superannuation, which might be hard to track down in future on this thread. Would be good if it was in a superannuation thread, or say the Medium/Long Term Investing forum


----------



## fiftyeight (11 January 2019)

Logique said:


> Along similar lines, there is some good current discussion in the latest series of posts about superannuation, which might be hard to track down in future on this thread. Would be good if it was in a superannuation thread, or say the Medium/Long Term Investing forum




A thread where you run a 'demo' account would be ideal, I am sure it would not require too much effort


----------



## fiftyeight (13 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> There is an equal weight ETF on the ASX called MVW.




So in a 'balanced' system where everything should kinda sorta balance out, what cause the falls seen recently in MVW?

Is this strategy placing a 'bet' on historical correlations continuing? These correlations have lasted a lot longer than the recent bull run but still, they are just historical correlations


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> So in a 'balanced' system where everything should kinda sorta balance out, what cause the falls seen recently in MVW?
> 
> Is this strategy placing a 'bet' on historical correlations continuing? These correlations have lasted a lot longer than the recent bull run but still, they are just historical correlations




Not sure what you are asking exactly. 

The ETF in question holds approximately the same stocks as MSCI Australia Index but it equal weights them rather than market capitalisation weights them.

What historical correlations are you referring to?


----------



## fiftyeight (14 January 2019)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Not sure what you are asking exactly.




Yeah that would not amke any sense, I thought you were saying MVW run an equal weight strategy similar to yours


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> Yeah that would not amke any sense, I thought you were saying MVW run an equal weight strategy similar to yours




They kind of do! It's just equal weight stocks instead of asset classes.

The mathematical rationale is the same, I'm just less exposed to equity market risk than they are.


----------



## fiftyeight (14 January 2019)

Hmmmmm, if it is purely a vol harvest using some mathematical model, why bother diversify, just go to the asset classes with the most vol?

The correlations I was asking about are the historical correlations of cash/bonds/equities/gold.


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## InsvestoBoy (14 January 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> Hmmmmm, if it is purely a vol harvest using some mathematical model, why bother diversify, just go to the asset classes with the most vol?




To be fair to the original Permanent Portfolio, you'll note the recommendations are: the longest duration gov bonds you can find (most volatile), growth stocks (most volatile) and gold (which if you count as a commodity is the least volatile, but if you count as a currency, one of the more volatile compared with G10 pairs  ).



> The correlations I was asking about are the historical correlations of cash/bonds/equities/gold.




Correlations roll over time, and some pairs of asset classes in the 4 might become correlated for a while, but there are underlying macroeconomic reasons why the correlations on those 4 will never all be simultaneously high.


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## notting (6 August 2019)

*Summary of today.*
Market sells off dramatically on China currency manipulation.
Market reverses panic and traders dive back in as China sets rate above 7 again.
People realise that the Yuan is set against a basket of currencies most of which the US is very much stronger against.
Meaning the Yuan has actually been gaining against most currencies.
There was not need to panic or believe Trumps ill timed labeling.
The US is not the only currency in the world nor is it China's largest trading partner, well, at least whilst Britain remains in the Euro anyway.


----------



## satanoperca (6 August 2019)

Donald sends a thousand tweets  Xi wispers to his central bank - world markets react strongly. Always be wary of the quiet opponent in a fight.


----------



## Boggo (6 August 2019)

Allow me to scare you 
(Mon 5th data)

(click to expand x 2)


----------



## tech/a (6 August 2019)

Certainly not out of the question.


----------



## notting (6 August 2019)

Not only did China blatantly not stop Fentanyl exports to kill Americans and fail to even start investing in rural equipment which were the two things Trump mentioned as reasons for implementing the last tranche of his initial tariff threat, but they now have pulled out of purchasing from US farmers altogether!
China's international exports over all have actually INCREASED, since the US tariffs which is making a mockery of Trumps tariffs.
It's a massive slap in the face and reeks of that quiet confidence which is somewhat terrifying! Maybe they already are in control of the world!

Labeling China a currency manipulator is inaccurate with respect to it's behavior over the last few years with currency, but it does  allow for the Commerce Department previously proposed threats about undervalued currencies to be an illegal trade subsidy. This US Treasury's designation as such opens the floodgates to countervailing duties on Chinese goods.


----------



## tinhat (6 August 2019)

notting said:


> Not only did China blatantly not stop Fentanyl exports to kill Americans and fail to even start investing in rural equipment which were the two things Trump mentioned as reasons for implementing the last tranche of his initial tariff threat, but they now have pulled out of purchasing from US farmers altogether!
> China's international exports over all have actually INCREASED, since the US tariffs which is making a mockery of Trumps tariffs.
> It's a massive slap in the face and reeks of that quiet confidence which is somewhat terrifying! Maybe they already are in control of the world!
> 
> Labeling China a currency manipulator is inaccurate with respect to it's behavior over the last few years with currency, but it does  allow for the Commerce Department previously proposed threats about undervalued currencies to be an illegal trade subsidy. This US Treasury's designation as such opens the floodgates to countervailing duties on Chinese goods.




I'm not going to stick up for China, but when I came across a clueless fool like a Trump as an opposing prop forward when I played rugby as a kid I would revel in the opportunity, not with the objective of breaking that opponent immediately, but slowly throughout the entire game. It kept it entertaining. It's why I always asked my captain to take the scrum.


----------



## notting (6 August 2019)

I respect Trump for being the only free world leader to call out China and stand up to them.
This is the defining issue of our times.  Every thing else pales into insignificance.
The Europeans are utter gutless hypocrites for selling out human rights for trade.
China's has long history of compromising trading partners and destroying them in exactly this way.
If the world does not stand up to China now and just keeps letting them bribe us all into compromises we will all be living in a horror beyond our wildest fears.
We should be prepared to take on a deep depression to defeat this unprecedented evil.

PEOPLE NEED TO WAKE UP AND SCREAM IT FROM THEIR ROOFTOPS


----------



## sptrawler (6 August 2019)

notting said:


> I respect Trump for being the only free world leader to call out China and stand up to them.
> This is the defining issue of our times.  Every thing else pales into insignificance.
> The Europeans are utter gutless hypocrites for selling out human rights for trade.
> China's has long history of compromising trading partners and destroying them in exactly this way.
> ...



Probably a bit stronger wording than I would use, but I agree with the general thrust of your sentiment.
But is China to blame, or are we to blame, for always chasing the cheapest labour cost?
We send all our manufacturing there, give them our intellectual knowledge to build things for us, then complain when they start copying.
The only problem is, they no longer need us, but we want them to give us a fair go.
Why should they? How can we make them? 
Other than what Trump is doing, yet he is being shouted down by big business and the press. So the continual slide will resume, when Trump goes.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 August 2019)

There is no escaping the fact that as of right now, until such time as it is broken, what we have is a double top in the XJO and a rather massive one at that with the peaks almost 12 years apart and a low in between that's 55% down from the peak.

Whether or not that turns out to have any significance is harder to guess. Eg someone could have said the same thing comparing 1994 with 1987 but the market then went up more than 200%, not including dividends, over the next 13 years.


----------



## notting (7 August 2019)

The Dictatorships Bank of China inc has set the *daily reference rate for the USD to Chinese Yuan (CNY) at 6.9996 *
This is called getting the market used to the 6 handle without trying to look like a currency manipulator.  How could anything be more manipulative?
Technical however the label currency manipulators meaning in the rules of the financial world is a little different to what it really is.


----------



## sptrawler (7 August 2019)

notting said:


> The Dictatorships Bank of China inc has set the *daily reference rate for the USD to Chinese Yuan (CNY) at 6.9996 *
> This is called getting the market used to the 6 handle without trying to look like a currency manipulator.  How could anything be more manipulative?
> Technical however the label currency manipulators meaning in the rules of the financial world is a little different to what it really is.



The U.S have been trying to get China to float its currency for years, Trump is the only one of the presidents who has actually done something, whether it causes a disaster remains to be seen.
But a disaster at this stage is much better IMO, than a slow death by a thousand cuts, which was going to happen the way China was growing.
They have had free reign, to grow their economy and manufacturing base over the past couple of decades, but to let them just keep going, untill everyone else becomes a third world country isn't a good plan.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 August 2019)

May I ask ASF members not to invest in “Funds”. 

When the s**t hits the fan you end up with nothing, nada. 

gg


----------



## notting (7 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The U.S have been trying to get China to float its currency for years, Trump is the only one of the presidents who has actually done something, whether it causes a disaster remains to be seen.
> But a disaster at this stage is much better IMO, than a slow death by a thousand cuts, which was going to happen the way China was growing.
> They have had free reign, to grow their economy and manufacturing base over the past couple of decades, but to let them just keep going, until everyone else becomes a third world country isn't a good plan.
> Just my opinion.



A very sound opinion at that.
What is even more frightening is that China was not signitary to any arms race agreements either.
They have built up massive amounts of medium range missiles, Submarines even coast guard boats which are actually war ships.
It is huge!
China is fully at war with the free world on all fronts, shots have not been fired but it is not out of the question.


----------



## sptrawler (7 August 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> May I ask ASF members not to invest in “Funds”.
> 
> When the s**t hits the fan you end up with nothing, nada.
> 
> gg



Does that include superannuation 'funds'?


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2019)

I see that the Dow is down over 300 points and oil is down over US $2 at the moment so I doubt we've seen the bottom for the ASX yet.


----------



## qldfrog (8 August 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> May I ask ASF members not to invest in “Funds”.
> 
> When the s**t hits the fan you end up with nothing, nada.
> 
> gg



What do you mean with funds Gg?
Even asx traded? ETF included?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 August 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> I guess the question I'm asking is, why do you think your envelope strategy (which I'm reading as 1/4 gold, 1/4 US equities, 1/4 bonds, 1/4 cash) will perform strongly in the future?




ahhh Jan 10, 2019. Seems so long ago...

XJO up 13.04% plus some dividends...
Gold in AUD up 25% minus some storage costs...
Australian Government Bonds 2047 maturity (longest on offer) up 23% plus some yield...
AUD down ~6% on the USD minus some interest rate differential...

and that's just the benchmark...

I had no idea if the strategy would perform strongly in the future and I still don't!


----------



## tinhat (12 March 2020)

I've heard this from a friend. He's a uber driver.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 March 2020)

So many people saying to me over the last few years why I hold TWENTY FIVE PERCENT of my portfolio in cash!

Why, it doesn’t yield anything after inflation.

Welcome to March 2020, where even AAA rated long duration government debt is going down as people sell whatever’s liquid to meet redemptions and margin calls.

Unless you’re short or long vol, cash is the only thing not going down today.

Everyone’s freaking out, I’m looking for rebals. Another great day for it.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Welcome to March 2020, where even AAA rated long duration government debt is going down as people sell whatever’s liquid to meet redemptions and margin calls.




Article on the AFR about why Aus Gov Bonds traded down hard this week:

https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...-8-8-billion-into-repo-market-20200313-p549t6



> Foreign hedge funds dumped Australian government bonds and the RBA is pumping billions into short-term bank funding to ease a breakdown in global credit markets.
> ...
> 
> Local bond market sources reported heavy selling pressure, an evaporation of liquidity and upward pressure on yields in global government borrowing markets, including the US and Australia.
> ...




Also 

both h/r @MillennialMacro on twitter https://twitter.com/millennialmacro


----------



## wayneL (6 December 2021)

I don't think it's imminent, perhaps not even soon. but I predict this thread will become active sometime in 2022.


----------



## Gunnerguy (6 December 2021)

Too early to sell some 8,100 Feb, Mar, Apr calls is it ? Or buy some 7,000 similar dated puts ?

Gunnerguy.


----------



## wayneL (6 December 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> Too early to sell some 8,100 Feb, Mar, Apr calls is it ? Or buy some 7,000 similar dated puts ?
> 
> Gunnerguy.



I am at this moment working on getting myself long volatility. there are several facets to this (re other Greeks) and I am just trying to work through how to do this for best advantage.


----------



## divs4ever (6 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> I don't think it's imminent, perhaps not even soon. but I predict this thread will become active sometime in 2022.



 i have been wrong  many times before  , but i think the XJO  will find support  around 7000 points   before   a rise  going towards Xmas 

 BUT the market is less certain on direction ( either way ) currently  , i notice WOW , COL , EDV and MTS gained today  was there a trend  towards 'safe-havens '  , i would have thought the banks would have attracted more interest  as the end of the year approached  , but maybe i am just early  on that 


 you might have to wait a bit , but having another look at 'your ride the dip'  plans  might prove beneficial 

 i am told there was a broader sell-off of today  with a few ( mostly gold miners ) shining bright  ( and the food retailers as well )

 tech stocks seem to be lacking support currently   .. so are we looking at a move to 'risk-off ' albeit it subtle and with some discipline ( not a general panic )

 i notice this thread barely got a post in March 2020 ( i hope Investoboy made a motza as a reward for his patience )

 good luck everyone 

 it could get exciting even in the week after Xmas  ( if the fundies go on holidays )


----------



## wayneL (6 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i have been wrong  many times before  , but i think the XJO  will find support  around 7000 points   before   a rise  going towards Xmas
> 
> BUT the market is less certain on direction ( either way ) currently  , i notice WOW , COL , EDV and MTS gained today  was there a trend  towards 'safe-havens '  , i would have thought the banks would have attracted more interest  as the end of the year approached  , but maybe i am just early  on that
> 
> ...



My concern is that stock market... Well probably even all markets outside of cryptos, are no longer true price discovery mechanisms.

Both governments and central Banks have been messing with both the bond and stock markets for a long time now, and I think everybody in the world now knows that JP Morgan have been manipulating the precious metals markets forever.

The great question in my mind is, when do they lose control of everything, if ever?

Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos.

However I totally believe that the debt market has passed a critical mass and all it needs is for one well-placed proton (or neutron? I can't remember) to blow everything the @#£& up.

History shows that this is the inevitable course of events.

Maybe it is a case of a stopped watch being correct twice a day, but the predictors of these financial clusterf@#£s are never wrong, it is only a question of the timing.

Disclaimer: I always call these things too damned early.


----------



## divs4ever (6 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> My concern is that stock market... Well probably even all markets outside of cryptos, are no longer true price discovery mechanisms.
> 
> Both governments and central Banks have been messing with both the bond and stock markets for a long time now, and I think everybody in the world now knows that JP Morgan have been manipulating the precious metals markets forever.
> 
> ...



 ** My concern is that stock market... Well probably even all markets outside of cryptos, are no longer true price discovery mechanisms. **
 yes i share those concerns  , cryptos will be worth WATCHING to see how virtual novices  will react to widespread panic   ( and how many chose to resist leverage and debt elsewhere 

 BUT that is the game we have  , and the minefield we are playing on 

 *** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***

 am not convinced the crypto markets are devoid of rigging  , but such rigging MIGHT be less than elsewhere in 'liquid assets ' 

 *** However I totally believe that the debt market has passed a critical mass ***

 i believe that happened in September 2019  , however those claiming that happened in the GFC have a strong argument as well ( IMO )

 you assume there will be some trust left in the system ( and currencies ) when the dust settles  , i am not so sure of that 

 i was surprised when the ' bond yield curve inversion '  flag  seemed to fail this time  ( or maybe it did  work and we have all been distracted  since )

 are we wrong  , or dancing on air and unaware of it  ,  accurate information is hard to find  recently 

 early is NOT a bad thing provided you don't over-commit  to that direction ( leave some tweaking room )

 for example  i have been  tilting towards 'safe-havens ' for over 8  years  this year  the M&A activity  has taken out many of those 'safe-havens '  leaving me  with profits ( cash )  probably right at the best time to have spare cash to invest ( if there is a true melt-down this time )

 but the future is not written yet


----------



## divs4ever (6 December 2021)

*** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***

 but where else could we go to resist underlying inflation 

 the share market has been called TINA  ( There Is No Alternative ) BEFORE March 2020 by savvy fund managers 

maybe we were just bad people for not believing the official inflation rates , but the other choice  was having our nest eggs starved by official inflation ( sitting in bonds and TDs  paying pitiful returns )


----------



## Gunnerguy (6 December 2021)

Yes it’s tricky, however it dependon your ‘life stage’.
Are you <30 = years to recover, many cycles, let’s buy another TV and watch the BBL.
Are you >55 = ‘all I need is 5% a year for the next 30 years and I’m fine’, and the kids get a healthy inheritance.
Are you >75, sorry can’t compute.
I’m obviously the second category.
No judgement but what I’ve done is .... 3 years wealth in cash/FI = 20% of wealth, 30% property, 50% shares.Thus if there’s a 30%-50% I have cash that I’m happy to DCA in.
Who knows.  So many people giving advise in the media, fund managers etc. crash is coming, Fed printing money to the moon, can’t raise interest rates, 
From my standpoint, I’ve worked hard for 30 years, I’ve achieved what I have, and it’s good, it’s successful, it’s solid. I am not going FOMO now. I don’t want to blow it all and f@@k up what I have worked hard for my family.
A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.
For >50’s I would recommend safety, insurance and perspective if you have a decent bag of ‘cash’.
Don’t screw up what you have, and don’t be greedy !!!!
Gunnerguy.


----------



## wayneL (7 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> *** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***
> 
> but where else could we go to resist underlying inflation
> 
> ...



Great points.

We should trade to what IS and not what we think it should be. I think that some sort of at least rudimentary understanding of macro economics might help here.... And an understanding of the function of Central Banks and how they operate in practice.

That's actually pretty hard for we plebeians, and I thank those podcasts I listen to for helping me here.







divs4ever said:


> *** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***
> 
> but where else could we go to resist underlying inflation
> 
> ...



This is what I mean by "willing accomplices".

It is our job to trade what *is, not what we think it should be.

**Checks notes, should follow my own advice


----------



## wayneL (7 December 2021)

^^^NFI how that quote thing ended up like that, but will leave it as is for <cough> brevity.


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## divs4ever (7 December 2021)

** Don’t screw up what you have, and don’t be greedy !!!! **

 yep that is basically my plan  ( although i need to be a little bit greedy  , but NOT screw up  what i have )

 sadly i am closer to the ' can't compute ' group 

 **  I think that some sort of at least rudimentary understanding of macro economics might help here.... And an understanding of the function of Central Banks and how they operate in practice. **

 i did that and have a BAD headache  , something about macro economics  collided with MMT   when propelled by Central Banks 

 ** That's actually pretty hard for we plebeians, and I thank those podcasts I listen to for helping me here. **

 i absolutely agree there  ( even if You-Tube banned half the confronting theories , for daring us to think  )


----------



## Gunnerguy (8 December 2021)

NYSE open for an hour, 2.5% up !!


----------



## qldfrog (8 December 2021)

Yeap it is back up and probably all go till january


----------



## Gunnerguy (8 December 2021)

ASX200’s 7650 will be a hurdle to cross.
EOY I don’t think ASX200 will be much over 7700.
I STO quite a few DEC and JAN calls above 7700.
Gunnerguy


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## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

a new ( XJO ) record before  Xmas ... maybe

 we still have  some bank div. cash that needs a home  , the general trend to  buy a few extra  shares before the New Year ( by the retail folk  and super fund managers )

 so there is usually SOME pressure for the market to rise

 i normally start cherry-picking illiquid stocks in this period ( until the beginning of February )

 but anything seems to be able to happen in the current climate

 ( PS there is still some M&A cash  that needs a new home as well )

 BTW i am still super-cautious  , but piles of cash in the bank is not so useful either


----------



## wayneL (8 December 2021)

The Santa Claus rally phenomenon is quite clearly in play.

As I said above I don't believe any market tanking is imminent or even soon... And as I also said I always call things way too early.

But one thing of note is that insiders are selling at record levels and it seems that retail investors are the buyer's. 

Standard contrarian theory says that we are at, or near a top. There are many reasons why the top isn't *now*, but I am sticking to my thesis that at some point in 2022 the poop will hit the propeller.

Which probably means it won't be till 2023 or later


----------



## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

have been wrong for 8 years now  why should i worry about being wrong longer 

 maybe i should apply for a job at the RBA , incorrect is well tolerated there


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> have been wrong for 8 years now  why should i worry about being wrong longer
> 
> maybe i should apply for a job at the RBA , incorrect is well tolerated there




Or, the BOM.


----------



## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

nope , i have arthritis in the right shoulder  ( for more than 20 years ) , i can  beat the BOM most days without even going outside 

 failing that i walk outside  look around then  watch the ants  , i doubt they will pay me a salary for that expertise


----------



## wayneL (21 December 2021)

YoooTooob is now replete with stock market crash warnings... (Which is actually probably a buy signal)

A perusal of the federal reserve's balance sheet shows that the so-called taper is largely bulshit, they are clearly not done buying up assets at this stage.

I am still sticking to my thesis that this thread will become very active at some point in 2022. Is it now or in the first part of the new year?

I doubt it (which is probably a sell signal).

In fact I believe they will probably try to kick the can down the road at least until the US mid terms have come and gone.... Possibly.

After that I think it is game on, gents and gentesses.


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

i can't believe they have managed to kick the can as long as they have 

 i suspect proportionately there are more retail investors in the market  (  the big fund managers and instos  have gone on holidays )

 and they  ( retail folk ) tend to focus more on long term gains/income 

 i think the days of Y-T videos  causing panic-selling among the novices  are fading into history ( that does NOT mean  abandoning  a cash reserve  , and market meltdown plan  ,  but keep it close and ready  , not the only strategy )

 since i have been  investing .. 'buy the dip ' seems to have completely replaced  'averaging down ' , but does  'buy the dip' come with 'quick hands ' ( short term holds ) or diamond hands ( hold for much longer )

 now one ' horror scenario '  is a complete loss confidence ( market , currency , Central Bank  , etc etc ) so how does that play out  ( i don't know but guess it will be BAD )


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> YoooTooob is now replete with stock market crash warnings... (Which is actually probably a buy signal)




Yes, watched a couple of those today. Mostly in the PM analysis space. It looks like it's rolling over but does there need to be a blow off top and crash situation? Could it be a boring old 20% gentle slide down in 2022 and valuations revert to long term mean?


----------



## wayneL (21 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i can't believe they have managed to kick the can as long as they have
> 
> i suspect proportionately there are more retail investors in the market  (  the big fund managers and instos  have gone on holidays )
> 
> ...



Insiders are selling in big numbers, which supports your point that it is probably retail investors doing all the buying atm.


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

are they selling , or have they sold recently  , when i first started  ( investing )  i sometimes got tricked by notices that described movements  , days or even weeks before  

 but it is a shortened trading week ( Friday SHOULD close early )  , i bet the smartest traders have their feet up relaxing ( so they keep in the sweetest tax-bracket )


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

Please also note that the market will close early on Friday, 24 December 2021 and Friday, 31 December 2021 at 2.10pm (Sydney time). For ETOs, the market will close at 2.20pm (Sydney time) for equity options, and at 2.30pm (Sydney time) for index options, on both of these days.​


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## wayneL (21 January 2022)

Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off a bit.

It's not a "the ASX is it officially tanking" moment yet, but I must say I have the hairs standing up on the back of my neck at the moment.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off a bit.



yes they are.


wayneL said:


> It's not a "the ASX is it officially tanking" moment yet, but I must say I have the hairs standing up on the back of my neck at the moment.



officially it is an *"*_officially "the ASX is tanking" *panic" *_thread; to date, far too orderly and the buyers of the dips are still there. 

Ah, liquidity, ah depth !  _O tempora_, _o mores_ .


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> yes they are.
> 
> officially it is an *"*_officially "the ASX is tanking" *panic" *_thread; to date, far too orderly and the buyers of the dips are still there.
> 
> Ah, liquidity, ah depth !  _O tempora_, _o mores_ .



Indeed no panic.... yet. And ID expect Central Banks to come rising to the rescue in this instance.

But I am noticing some twitching and nervous ticks among certain participants.

The stock market is a derivative of the bond market *in aggregate*, so I am keeping my eye firmly on that.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, *bonds are selling off.*



From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre."

Clinton political adviser James Carville  said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."

And where are we, now? 


> _The yield on the US 10-year note was down 3 basis points to 1.83 per cent in midday trading in New York. The yield has surged 32 basis points higher so far this month._


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre."
> 
> Clinton political adviser James Carville  said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
> 
> And where are we, now?



We are in a much more rate-sensitive environment than then. IMO

As a thought experiment let's wonder what the reaction may be to say, 10 year bond yields at 3%... or 4%?


----------



## frugal.rock (21 January 2022)

Plenty of money has been flowing in this year, it's only natural most of the recently popped darlings blow off steam, profit taking.

Things are only down as much as they are up on a good day...🤨

I do wonder, how many people read the thread title and start panic selling? 🧐


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Plenty of money has been flowing in this year, it's only natural most of the recently popped darlings blow off steam, profit taking.
> 
> Things are only down as much as they are up on a good day...🤨
> 
> I do wonder, how many people read the thread title and start panic selling? 🧐



I did say when I started bumping this thread that I don't expect a panic sell off anytime soon, only that I do believe at some point it will come... Maybe sometime this year, maybe next.

Vis a vis, there is no indication that the easy money is stopping.

But, the bond market is a beast when it gets the sh¹ts, and it is showing signs of getting a bit grumpy.


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> I did say when I started bumping this thread that I don't expect a panic sell off anytime soon, only that I do believe at some point it will come... Maybe sometime this year, maybe next.
> 
> Vis a vis, there is no indication that the easy money is stopping.
> 
> But, the bond market is a beast when it gets the sh¹ts, and it is showing signs of getting a bit grumpy.




Breaking this support level, I'd saddle up at least one of those four horses Wayne.


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> Breaking this support level, I'd saddle up at least one of those four horses Wayne.



I'm not sure who shod it most recently mate, but it's got racing plates on and looks hard fit


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off a bit.
> 
> It's not a "the ASX is it officially tanking" moment yet, but I must say I have the hairs standing up on the back of my neck at the moment.





frugal.rock said:


> Plenty of money has been flowing in this year, it's only natural most of the recently popped darlings blow off steam, profit taking.
> 
> Things are only down as much as they are up on a good day...🤨
> 
> I do wonder, how many people read the thread title and start panic selling? 🧐




In context for me on the XAO panic thread is that Crypto BTC has dropped 10% in the last 4-6 hours. 

At the other end from silly bugger trading/slots, BHP has dropped nearly 5% today and approaching @Sean K 's resting consolidation area early next week by the looks of it.

There is obvious instability. And it is everywhere. (except in Gold, sorry had to get that in but it is true )

I wouldn't even saddle one of yer horses @wayneL . 

My shout, Cheers to everyone for the weekend. What a wonderful life.

gg


----------



## basilio (21 January 2022)

There is some strong pessimistic sentiment from Jeremy Grantham.
The fact is if enough people think shortselling is the way to go and/or "Get out now ! "  the markets will collapse. No question about it.









						'We face the largest potential markdown of perceived wealth in US history': Leading investor warns of crash as stock markets dive
					

Prominent investor Jeremy Grantham warns US stock markets are in a "super bubble" that is set to crash, while Wall Street gave up strong early gains to finish in the red again overnight, with the ASX following.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## divs4ever (22 January 2022)

basilio said:


> There is some strong pessimistic sentiment from Jeremy Grantham.
> The fact is if enough people think shortselling is the way to go and/or "Get out now ! "  the markets will collapse. No question about it.
> 
> 
> ...



the other factor is the folks who should  be investing ( more ) money ( like me ) are very cautious ( limiting buyer support )


----------



## bluekelah (25 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the other factor is the folks who should  be investing ( more ) money ( like me ) are very cautious ( limiting buyer support )



i am cashed up too mate, will be looking to "buy the crash" when stocks goes down maybe to march 2020 covid lows? Nasdaq almost down 4% tonight now


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2022)

bluekelah said:


> i am cashed up too mate, will be looking to "buy the crash" when stocks goes down maybe to march 2020 covid lows? Nasdaq almost down 4% tonight now



Rebounding now...a bit too early.not too late to unload. Sell the Top😊
Let's see in the next couole of xeeks cash up in index put might even be better


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 January 2022)

Cave ursi.

Carpe diem.

Remember that the market is a means, not an end in itself. 

gg


----------



## Miner (25 January 2022)

Need swim suit, noodles, life belt today and rest of the week


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 January 2022)

Miner said:


> Need swim suit, noodles, life belt today and rest of the week
> 
> 
> View attachment 136475



Yes @Miner .

It is the type of day that one when younger would have asked of the good looking lass who smiled at you in the fish and chip shop.

I suppose there isn't any chance of a r**t.

gg


----------



## Miner (25 January 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes @Miner .
> 
> It is the type of day that one when younger would have asked of the good looking lass who smiled at you in the fish and chip shop.
> 
> ...



pretty much so, but the same will do the good looking lass to ask the handsome male youths  . Now lass and lads need each other to survive


----------



## basilio (25 January 2022)

That Red Sea on the Stock exchange is getting choppier by the hour.

160 points down and still going. And the war in the Ukraine hasn't even kicked off.  I wonder if/when the quants start selling everything off ?


----------



## basilio (25 January 2022)

Came across a story which checks out where the trigger points for market instaility could lie.  One point that caught my eye. Could be some real pressure from people who have speculated in crypto currency.

_But a bigger plonk, though, is coming from the cryptic world of crypto-currency. The Washington Post over the weekend estimated digital tokens had “vaporised” $US1.4tn (almost A$2tn) in just two months as the ethereal market halved in value._









						Stock markets falling, investors getting nervous – is the debt-fuelled finance party over?
					

Some near-term nasties loom on the horizon, but larger threats are geopolitical and difficult to predict




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## mullokintyre (25 January 2022)

My shark like nose smells a hint of blood in the water.
Send it all lower punters, send it lower.
Mick


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> My shark like nose smells a hint of blood in the water.
> Send it all lower punters, send it lower.
> Mick



"I can no hold her Captain, we're going in". 🤪 "Brace, Brace, head between your knees". 😂


----------



## wayneL (25 January 2022)

This ain't it. The drivers of a crash aren't there... yet... This is just a few nerves. 

And in light of my opinion above, I advise you to sell everything LMAO.


----------



## Sean K (25 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> This ain't it. The drivers of a crash aren't there... yet... This is just a few nerves.
> 
> And in light of my opinion above, I advise you to sell everything LMAO.



What's your crystal ball say about the drivers, Wayne? Fed miscalculation on rates, more Evergrandes in China, Russia or China miscalculation on Ukraine and Taiwan, a worse variant of Covid?


----------



## finicky (25 January 2022)

Admittedly U.S futures down from what I see but ASX is acting like an almost historic positive reversal last night didn't happen. Poor show I say.


----------



## mullokintyre (25 January 2022)

finicky said:


> Admittedly U.S futures down from what I see but ASX is acting like an almost historic positive reversal last night didn't happen. Poor show I say.



Oz is missing a Plunge Protection Team.
We need to get onto it right away.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

am doing what i can ,  i just keep on missing the top shelf prizes SO FAR 

 ( only added extra AIS and MND  , so far , but 3 others are close to the target price )

 and MIGHT consider raising my target on FMG  Thursday/Friday  ( to sub $19  )


----------



## basilio (25 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> and MIGHT consider raising my target on FMG Thursday/Friday ( to sub $19 )




I reckon that would be good buy.  Certainly taking a beating now but IMV the fundamentals are still excellent.


----------



## wayneL (25 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> What's your crystal ball say about the drivers, Wayne? Fed miscalculation on rates, more Evergrandes in China, Russia or China miscalculation on Ukraine and Taiwan, a worse variant of Covid?



I'm going along with the theory that the greatest driver of stock market atm is the debt market.

Disclaimer 1: I'm not an economist.

I think there are lots of *reasons why the stock markets in western country should be a hell of a lot lower than they are now, but the real driver is the debt market and central Banks.... I think the contention that the stock market, in aggregate, is it derivative of the debt market is pretty spot on, and I think the price action of the stock market has borne that out over recent years.

So I'm watching the debt market, and the American dollar (it being an instrument of debt)

Those factors that you mention are also derivative factors of the debt market, so yes an eye on those things as clues would be prudent.

To my way of thinking there are lots of chinks in the armour there, and perhaps a true crash is a lot closer than I think it is, but I don't think the federal reserve is done yet and the cantillon effect is still in play.

Disclaimer 2: I know nuffin'


----------



## basilio (25 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> and MIGHT consider raising my target on FMG Thursday/Friday ( to sub $19 )



The way it's going now could go to $18.50 . Even better bargain.
 Have to say I am a bit surprised at the current free fall. Down 6% today


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2022)

basilio said:


> The way it's going now could go to $18.50 . Even better bargain.
> Have to say I am a bit surprised at the current free fall. Down 6% today



It could go to the $15 area, where I picked them up a couple of months ago.


----------



## UMike (25 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> It could go to the $15 area, where I picked them up a couple of months ago.



Got my buy order already at that (18.50) and will continue to buy on the way down.

Cashed up and ready to go.


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

basilio said:


> I reckon that would be good buy.  Certainly taking a beating now but IMV the fundamentals are still excellent.



 my buying prices on FMG  were $19.90 ( cum. div. )  $17.60  and $14.20 

 all in August/September 2021  ( !!! ) so you can see why i am not  rushing  to pay over $19 ( and no div. in the very near future )

 the key here is how many  of the new promises can FMG deliver on ( in a world going to Hell in a hand-basket )


----------



## basilio (25 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> my buying prices on FMG  were $19.90 ( cum. div. )  $17.60  and $14.20
> 
> all in August/September 2021  ( !!! ) so you can see *why i am not  rushing  to pay over $19 ( and no div. in the very near future )
> *
> the key here is how many  of the new promises can FMG deliver on ( in a world going to Hell in a hand-basket )




FMG has twice yearly dividends. The next divie will reflect the last six months trading and be payable in March. IMV it should be around the $1 mark  

Dividend Summary​The *next Fortescue Metals Group Ltd dividend* is expected to go ex _in 1 month_ and to be paid _in 2 months_.
The *previous Fortescue Metals Group Ltd dividend* was 211c and it went ex _5 months ago_ and it was paid _4 months ago_.
There are typically 2 dividends per year (excluding specials).


Latest Dividends

SummaryPrevious dividendNext dividendStatusPaidForecastTypeFinalInterimPer share211cSign Up RequiredDeclaration date30 Aug 2021 (Mon)17 Feb 2022 (Thu)Ex-div date06 Sep 2021 (Mon)28 Feb 2022 (Mon)Pay date30 Sep 2021 (Thu)23 Mar 2022 (Wed)


----------



## basilio (25 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> It could go to the $15 area, where I picked them up a couple of months ago.




If they went that low I would also be back in. I did top up during last years ridiculous low SP.  We'll see.


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

basilio said:


> FMG has twice yearly dividends. The next divie will reflect the last six months trading and be payable in March. IMV it should be around the $1 mark
> 
> Dividend Summary​The *next Fortescue Metals Group Ltd dividend* is expected to go ex _in 1 month_ and to be paid _in 2 months_.
> The *previous Fortescue Metals Group Ltd dividend* was 211c and it went ex _5 months ago_ and it was paid _4 months ago_.
> ...



 yes but i am only  factoring in 2 x $1 divs. from FMG  , per year in the foreseeable future 

 FMG is quite welcome to exceed those expectations , if they wish ,

 but i expect they will be prudent with their capital , given their expansion plans and projects 

 i would NOT be disappointed if FMG  pointed some profits  at the new projects


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2022)

basilio said:


> If they went that low I would also be back in. I did top up during last years ridiculous low SP.  We'll see.



If this turns into a major correction, the dificulty will be deciding what to buy, which is a good position to be in.


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> If this turns into a major correction, the dificulty will be deciding what to buy, which is a good position to be in.



 yes but DECIDING can be rather difficult 

 and well,  that correction ( crash ) has been likely for a while  but we need  to smash the ( minus ) 20% barrier first  , that might or might not happen this year


----------



## Country Lad (25 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> If this turns into a major correction, the difficulty will be deciding what to buy.........



............ and when to buy.


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

when , isn't so hard ( for me )

 i have  a 'fair price ' calculated normally , and prefer SOME at a good price rather than sweating ( and cursing ) over the best price 

 i guess that is the flip-side of  not being excessively greedy ( for me ) , but i play a longer game


----------



## sptrawler (25 January 2022)

Country Lad said:


> ............ and when to buy.



I always find it best to work out what would be a really good price, before the crash when things are going well, not while it is happening.  🤣


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I always find it best to work out what would be a really good price, before the crash when things are going well, not while it is happening.  🤣



 indeed , it reduces your chance of 'fat finger'  ( i can always buy a few more if it tumbles  even lower , again  )


----------



## divs4ever (25 January 2022)

Jim Rogers, Jim Rickards & Other Top Money Experts Offer Warnings & Advice For 2022​




__





						Jim Rogers Blog
					

TRACKING THE COMMODITIES VIGILANTE AND AUTHOR, JIM ROGERS AN UNOFFICIAL TRACKING OF HIS INVESTMENT COMMENTARY




					jimroger.blogspot.com
				




 not ASX specific  , but maybe some useful hints


----------



## Sean K (27 January 2022)

@wayneL saddle up the second horse!!


----------



## wayneL (27 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> @wayneL saddle up the second horse!!
> 
> View attachment 136620



The drivers may have just started to change, as per Fed announcement last night.


----------



## qldfrog (27 January 2022)

talking about opportunity:
buy this morning


XJOOR9
put 6650 on XJO 21st april 2023; bought today near open $1.65 current price around $2.75 ..some people must be doing a killing


----------



## mullokintyre (27 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I always find it best to work out what would be a really good price, before the crash when things are going well, not while it is happening.  🤣



That is probably an OK strategy when looking at individual stocks.
 The problem is, when  any class of asset go in either direction, they tend to overshoot and undershoot.
When the market in general heads down, I tend to wait until I see some sort of bottom pricing  has been observed.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> That is probably an OK strategy when looking at individual stocks.
> The problem is, when  any class of asset go in either direction, they tend to overshoot and undershoot.
> When the market in general heads down, I tend to wait until I see some sort of bottom pricing  has been observed.
> Mick



am not normally agile enough to pounce on the bottoms ( or sometimes  get a part-filled order when i do )

 isn't so bad with LICs either ( especially if still cum. div )


----------



## mullokintyre (27 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> am not normally agile enough to pounce on the bottoms ( or sometimes  get a part-filled order when i do )
> 
> isn't so bad with LICs either ( especially if still cum. div )



Well, the only way you are ever going to be able to see the bottom is in hindsight, i.e. when they show a deffinite turnup.
Nobody picks the bottom, unless its a complete fluke.
Mick


----------



## Gunnerguy (27 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> am not normally agile enough to pounce on the bottoms ( or sometimes  get a part-filled order when i do )
> 
> isn't so bad with LICs either ( especially if still cum. div )



Im going lower ...
I’m looking at AXJO Bull Put credit spread at 5800/5400 for March17. Delta is about 0.12.
Gunnerguy


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

well several friends over the decades  have called Lucky  , but it is hard to  run a portfolio on luck ( but have had a few wins anyway )


----------



## basilio (27 January 2022)

The  swings on the ASX indexes are pretty impressive. There must be some traders out there either doing really well or watching their boat being torpedoed.

I suppose it all looks like a  giant game at this stage but if/when these swings become unmanageable and there are serious consequences for financial institutions, companies, financial intermediaries ...


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

doesn't the ASX still have a circuit-breaker , to stop extraordinary swings in the market


----------



## mullokintyre (27 January 2022)

Why the hell isn't Costello using  the Future Fund to act like our very  own Plunge protection team?
I mean, what else does he get paid all those bikies for ? (as well as his nice parliamentary pension).
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Why the hell isn't Costello using  the Future Fund to act like our very  own Plunge protection team?
> I mean, what else does he get paid all those bikies for ? (as well as his nice parliamentary pension).
> Mick



 last i heard Peter was trying to urge reform so retiring beneficiaries  wouldn't drain the fund of capital   ( so they could still get offered those sweet investments .. so they can earn some returns on investments )

 i am also guessing that is why ' the Super Fund on last resort ' wasn't made a clone of the Super Fund ( would have been too tiny to get the good offers  and at least cover expenses )


----------



## qldfrog (27 January 2022)

I do not personally like any artificial market control, we have enough play as it is; so if we have a protection, the goldman sach& Cie will learn about it being trigger before it happens, this is a given while the commonners will suck dry stones..no thanks


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## qldfrog (27 January 2022)

Bell direct tonight seems unable to give me my portfolio value..i assume unexpected traffic...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 January 2022)

_"As January goes, so goes the rest of the year."_

Oh dear


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## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

the internet South of Brisbane is currently less than brisk 
 Bell is lagging more than ASF and Commsec

 but i only filled two orders today ( on Bell ) equal to Tuesday  so it wasn't me ( wink )

 seems to be working for me now ( on Bell  )


----------



## qldfrog (27 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Bell direct tonight seems unable to give me my portfolio value..i assume unexpected traffic...



all good now,so Bell Direct is back with heavy activity on the website.
ASX definitively tanking;
got losses on systems, heavy fall on my gold miners: NST NCM .. end of month gold manipulation so all in line and normal
but more surprisingly:


Not a good signfor the ASX  if these types of shares drop like a Melbourne mobster in the Tasman strait


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

i need RFF below $1.60 to tempt me to add more ( i already participate in the DRP )

 i note  Commsec has the XJO  12 month high as 7,632.800 points

 so minus 10% is 6,869.52

minus 20% is 6,106.24

 minus 30% is 5,342.96 ( what i consider the START of a crash )

 ... and i had better stop there or half the members will not be able to sleep well tonight


----------



## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

Sharemarket falls: seven things for investors to consider​








						Sharemarket falls: seven things for investors to consider
					

Stockmarkets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, Omicron disruption and the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s too early to say markets have bottomed.




					www.firstlinks.com.au
				




 DYOR

 ( remember  i am looking at this as a potential buying opportunity )


----------



## Sean K (27 January 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Im going lower ...
> I’m looking at AXJO Bull Put credit spread at 5800/5400 for March17. Delta is about 0.12.
> Gunnerguy




What’s that eq on the XAO?

I haven’t looked beyond 7200 as a support level.


----------



## Gunnerguy (28 January 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Im going lower ...
> I’m looking at AXJO Bull Put credit spread at 5800/5400 for March17. Delta is about 0.12.
> Gunnerguy




I didn’t have the guts to sell this spread the other day, ‘my bad’ as is said nowadays.
Even with 30 years investing/trading emotions get in the way.
My options trading is just for  extra beer money (greedy), and hedging my long investment portfolio.
Nice uptick today with IV increasing and higher premiums to potentially sell.

Gunnerguy.


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

Big bounce today. Correction over?


----------



## Sean K (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Big bounce today. Correction over?




Potentially a dead cat. I hope the XAO consolidates above 7200 so our collective blood pressures can even out.


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> Potentially a dead cat. I hope the XAO consolidates above 7200 so our collective blood pressures can even out.



Green is my calming colour


----------



## Country Lad (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Big bounce today. Correction over?


----------



## wayneL (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Big bounce today. Correction over?



Dip buyers are certainly in the market, but are they the strong hands or retail buyers?

I myself don't have a bloody clue.

But I do sense that the overall drivers of the market are starting to change and that be headline economic stats are undermined by a lot of the more detailed stats.

I reckon the poo is in close proximity to the propeller.

When it actually hits is anybody's guess.


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

Poo has been there ever since 2008.

Poo is everpresent but easily forgotten. Better to bet on a rising market than a dip.


----------



## Sean K (28 January 2022)

This could go in the gold or panic threads, as it sort of covers both. This guys is an Energy Bunny Gold Bug Austrian Economist. Just ask a question and off he goes.


----------



## wayneL (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Poo has been there ever since 2008.
> 
> Poo is everpresent but easily forgotten. Better to bet on a rising market than a dip.



Too right.

But better to bet on a rising rising market than a tanking rising market.

And I would never bet on a tanking market either.

But there comes a point where your chips are better off the table than on it. 

Last point - never bet against the Fed.

Fwiw


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Too right.
> 
> But better to bet on a rising rising market than a tanking rising market.
> 
> ...




Words to live, and die, by on the markets.

How will you know when you are betting on a rising rising market and not a tanking rising market without hindsight?

It is in nobodies interest to allow a complete financial meltdown - we learned that in 2008 and we learned how far government would go to avoid it.


----------



## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Dip buyers are certainly in the market, but are they the strong hands or retail buyers?



 who says the retail  buyers won't have strong hands  ( i suspect several will  ) , the retail buyer doesn't have to face an AGM of disappointed clients  , 

 now sure some will nurse their losses for years ( like me on MCR and OZL  )

 i know some  directors often consider us annoying  , but who do they come calling on when they need extra cash ( and credit is tight ) 

 i am wondering if the propeller is actually near , or say March or later  , they have dodged a full-blooded meltdown for nearly two years so far


----------



## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Poo has been there ever since 2008.
> 
> Poo is everpresent but easily forgotten. Better to bet on a rising market than a dip.



 do i hear anyone  arguing  2000  ( for the debt created by the computer panic  , and then just papered over )

 i bet on the dips and let the rallies ( inflation ) let me look a little bit  clever  ( a rising tide lifts all boats )


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> do i hear anyone  arguing  2000  ( for the debt created by the computer panic  , and then just papered over )
> 
> i bet on the dips and let the rallies ( inflation ) let me look a little bit  clever  ( a rising tide lifts all boats )




Unfortunately it was before my time!
Time to take a trip to Wikipedia...


----------



## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

i was working  for a corporation  that came close to losing money during that time  , trying to replace 'doomed ' IT gear  ( despite being a publisher ) , the 'upgraded systems  ' kept it hamstrung and struggling for ten years 

 it certainly educated me in IT sellers ( at corporate level )

 from a weak start in 2000 , 2008  hit it like a wrecking ball ( when  ad revenue tumbled to  boot )


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Unfortunately it was before my time!
> Time to take a trip to Wikipedia...



As someone who recalls it rather well, in my opinion there overall psychology and "feel" is remarkably similar with cryptocurrencies in recent times as it was with internet stocks back in 1999.

Back then, anything even remotely associated with the internet saw its share price go to the moon. Even totally unrelated businesses, such as junior mining companies, worked out that they could make their share price go up 20 fold simply by adding ".com" to the company name and more than a few did exactly that. 

Then there were those who were going to make a fortune selling things online - and no it wasn't Amazon or even eBay at the time but rather, really niche stuff. Probably the most infamous example being dog food - yep, ordinary dog food that you can buy in any supermarket. A fortune was made and lost on it though.

The harsh reality is that whilst there was certainly a long term future in the internet, there was no future in many of those businesses which weren't simply failing to make a profit but in plenty of cases didn't even have any income at all. No real business was taking place, such that no amount of growth would ever make it profitable as there simply was no actual business, but the company was valued at $ millions or even $ billions. Amazing.

The frenzy with cryptos with even those not intended to be serious becoming highly valued along with the high levels of interest from the general public is all eerily familiar. Biggest standout of the lot is people quitting their normal jobs to make money trading - that's exactly what happened back in 1999, exactly the same there.

Comparing cryptos with the bubble in internet stocks, it's akin to watching someone do a perfect cover version of a song you've heard countless times from the original artist. Exact same lyrics and it's the same song just a different band doing it.


----------



## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> As someone who recalls it rather well, in my opinion there overall psychology and "feel" is remarkably similar with cryptocurrencies in recent times as it was with internet stocks back in 1999.
> 
> Back then, anything even remotely associated with the internet saw its share price go to the moon. Even totally unrelated businesses, such as junior mining companies, worked out that they could make their share price go up 20 fold simply by adding ".com" to the company name and more than a few did exactly that.
> 
> ...



 i am mostly ignoring the crypto-phenomenon ( but some buddies are dabbling there )  but yes i can see your parallels ,

 if it was ONLY cryptos  this time i wouldn't be so worried , but i see bubbles , here and there ( housing/property ) and almost everywhere ( easy credit , shares , bonds , and many other places )

 how many busts can be papered over in the near future  , we have had some practice  at one-at-a-time  , but two , three, even four ??? 

 ( because nobody seems to be prepared to accept the discomfort of a proper fix )

 and a BIG war is the most preferred distraction ( sadly )


----------



## wayneL (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Words to live, and die, by on the markets.
> 
> How will you know when you are betting on a rising rising market and not a tanking rising market without hindsight?
> 
> It is in nobodies interest to allow a complete financial meltdown - we learned that in 2008 and we learned how far government would go to avoid it.



You don't.

But you do have to take on what you think are the probabilities... And that is actually a very complicated equation.

I think the government would probably put more into saving the real estate market than the stock market, FWIW.

But even that has become a very complicated equation now. For better or for worse I have a bunker mentality.

I'm farking 60 years old now went to 0 only 8 years ago due to circumstances beyond my control. I've worked up sufficient shekels to retire at any point now and have become pretty damned risk-averse.... So that is jaundicing my view I guess.


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> You don't.
> 
> But you do have to take on what you think are the probabilities... And that is actually a very complicated equation.
> 
> ...




I am sorry to hear that, but glad to hear you've bounced back.

Your posts, including trembling hand, the duck and Julia's made up my formative years


----------



## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> I think the government would probably put more into saving the real estate market than the stock market, FWIW.



in AUSTRALIA i would agree  , i suspect it might be different in SOME other nations ( UK and US come to mind , but should probably add Japan as well )

 sounds like you found the nightmare i have been trying to avoid  , and am happy to hear you have found your way out of it 

 my parents were teens for part of  the Great Depression ( and part of WW2 )  so i know  bunker mentality  better than Goldilocks and the 3 Bears 

 HOWEVER inflation is possible  ( and i don't mean a miserable 8% )  selected risk is needed  as well ( unless you are safely in the billionaire class )

 good luck


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> As someone who recalls it rather well, in my opinion there overall psychology and "feel" is remarkably similar with cryptocurrencies in recent times as it was with internet stocks back in 1999.
> 
> Back then, anything even remotely associated with the internet saw its share price go to the moon. Even totally unrelated businesses, such as junior mining companies, worked out that they could make their share price go up 20 fold simply by adding ".com" to the company name and more than a few did exactly that.
> 
> ...



Or EV lithium Tesla green fashion


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2022)

Allow for the worst and hope for the best.
IMO in times like the moment, I find it better to sit and wait, I would rather miss a bit of profit, than purchase a chunk of loss.
Even if the market doesn't continue to slide, I can't see any major drivers that will send it souring.
Just my thoughts and I have been wrong on numerous occasions.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Allow for the worst and hope for the best.
> IMO in times like the moment, I find it better to sit and wait, I would rather miss a bit of profit, than purchase a chunk of loss.
> Even if the market doesn't continue to slide, I can't see any major drivers that will send it souring.
> Just my thoughts and I have been wrong on numerous occasions.



I would agree @sptrawler 

I was thinking the same as I dragged my Woolies trolley full of XAO scrip back in to the office at 4.10 pm yesterday.

I cannot push it as the wheels stick for some reason. I don't hold WOW.

gg


----------



## Sean K (29 January 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would agree @sptrawler
> 
> I was thinking the same as I dragged my Woolies trolley full of XAO scrip back in to the office at 4.10 pm yesterday.
> 
> ...




I only need a basket when going to WOW, or Dan's. No sticky wheels. Living 2 days at a time.


----------



## brerwallabi (29 January 2022)

Glad I kept my bell bottom jeans and my Skyhooks album.


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2022)

brerwallabi said:


> Glad I kept my bell bottom jeans and my Skyhooks album.



and your avatar picture @brerwallabi  ;-)


----------



## brerwallabi (29 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> and your avatar picture @brerwallabi  ;-)



That was 60’s.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 January 2022)

Comedian Charlie Fleischer observes: “If you remember the '*60s, you really weren't there*.” Apparently it took all of the 1970s to recover from the 1960s and create the quip.


----------



## divs4ever (29 January 2022)

oh  i was there , i was just resisting the trend of substance abuse 

of course 'there ' might have been a MK Ultra parallel universe  ( to some people )


----------



## mullokintyre (31 January 2022)

Why do I get the feeling that today is one of those deceased felines  bouncing days?
Mick


----------



## CityIndex (1 February 2022)

How will the RBA’s soon-to-be-released policy decision impact the Australian share market?

Although the central bank will probably look to end their QE program after the recent jobs and inflation data, anything beyond that seems fairly unlikely, especially with a Federal Election around the corner.

The ASX200 has been probing resistance at 7000 since Friday. Should the RBA decide to end QE without any further action be taken, investors could feel that the decision has been priced in following last week’s sell-off, and could allow the market to form a low.

However, if the RBA looks to mirror the Fed with a more hawkish approach to inflation, the ASX200 could easily find itself getting rejected at this level, leaving the door open for further downside.

All trading carries risk, but it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts over the next few hours.


----------



## mullokintyre (1 February 2022)

It may come as a bit of a surprise that Retail Sales fell 4.4% in December.
What  comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
From National Tribune



> Australian retail turnover fell 4.4 per cent in December 2021, seasonally adjusted, according to the Retail Trade figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
> 
> The December result follows consecutive rises of 7.3 per cent in November 2021, 4.9 per cent in October 2021, and 1.3 per cent in September 2021.
> 
> ...



I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists  get to keep their jobs.
Be interesting to see the RBA announcement as well as the next set of Employment statistics.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> It may come as a bit of a surprise that Retail Sales fell 4.4% in December.
> What  comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
> From National Tribune
> 
> ...



Mick,
As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey, month after month a couple of years ago
Not only was the survey focus totally irrelevant to my company but it started by 2 pages highlighting the fines i would be subjected should i failed to fill or filled incorrectly.
The quality of my answers matched my expectations


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2022)

An


qldfrog said:


> Mick,
> As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey, month after month a couple of years ago
> Not only was the survey focus totally irrelevant to my company but it started by 2 pages highlighting the fines i would be subjected should i failed to fill or filled incorrectly.
> The quality of my answers matched my expectations



Anyone interested in a real economic pulse should look at CBA reports : these guys have a real time knowledge


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Mick,
> As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey




Who's survey?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> An
> 
> Anyone interested in a real economic pulse should look at CBA reports : these guys have a real time knowledge




They all publish their credit card data etc... e.g.



			https://twitter.com/ANZ_Research


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> What  comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
> 
> I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists  get to keep their jobs.




Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here? 

It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.


----------



## mullokintyre (1 February 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?
> 
> It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.



Thank you for the education on what consensus means, I will return the complement and provide you with  what  a statistical average means. Given the huge disparity between the actual and forecast, and presuming that all the analysts are given equal weighting, there would have most likely been a majority of analysts who were  in positive territory, and very few in negative territory. A failure whichever way you look at it.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (1 February 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?
> 
> It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.



 i understand  consensus  , very well 

 consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk   , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> there would have most likely been a majority of analysts who were  in positive territory, and very few in negative territory. A failure whichever way you look at it.
> Mick




You should see the chart that shows all the predictions, it's very wide, some optimists, some pessemists, average them == consensus.

Moral of the story: as usual, don't take media one liners as face value of what happened.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i understand  consensus  , very well
> 
> consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk   , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected




Nah, if you see the data you can see there is plenty of non-consensus views that get folded into the average.


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Who's survey?



ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) which is the feed of the RBA here in Australia.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected



Plus a related problem that those with the more extreme views may self-censor to avoid standing out.

That's a common problem in large organisations especially. Whichever view the boss expresses, others just agree.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Plus a related problem that those with the more extreme views may self-censor to avoid standing out.
> 
> That's a common problem in large organisations especially. Whichever view the boss expresses, others just agree.




I feel like y'all getting hung up hard on the word "consensus" but what you are describing is just not how this particular consensus is achieved.

Fin companies like Bloomberg/CNBC/Reuters/etc have access to the research from analysts at big investment houses and banks etc. Each analyst is competing for reputation to have the most accurate view of whatever economy they cover and there is big $$$ in being right, especially if you are the one with variant perception (literally the opposite of what you describe here).

Consensus is just lame media shorthand for the average that Bloomberg et all present on the screen. The plot/chart of the different forecasts from those analysts is not consensus, it is very wide.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) which is the feed of the RBA here in Australia.




What survey was it for?


----------



## wayneL (1 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> ABS (Australia Bureau of Statistics) which is the feed of the RBA here in Australia.



I remember my folks having to do those with their business. It was a massive PITA and took a ton of time they couldn't really afford.


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> What survey was it for?



Monthly: actual results in term of turover, planned turnover etcand then my company expected outcome/turnover activity workforce etc for month quarter
Once they get you, it keeps coming and coming


----------



## mullokintyre (1 February 2022)

According to Anthony Murphy of Lucerne Investment Partners, we should be getting ready for a 5Pc  Interest rate.
From The Australian


> “We’ve already seen rationalisation start to come into the market. We can see that institutions and investors as a whole are no longer prepared to just pay up for these high-growth, expensive companies, many of which are not actually generating profits,” Mr Murphy said.
> “If you look at the irrational behaviour happening over the last 12 months, it’s resulted in 60 out of the ASX top 200 companies not being profitable. That’s alarming.”
> 
> While capital market conditions were favourable over the past two years, with excess liquidity pumped into the system, these hyper-growth businesses were the outperformers, Mr Murphy said.
> ...



While its debatable as to whether we get to 5%, the stunning part is the fat that 28% of ASX top 200 companies are not profitable. 
So what drives investors to put their hard earned money into these companies?
Strange times indeed.
Mick


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 February 2022)

I am watching (US market) breadth very closely at the moment.

Getting pretty close to overbought in the short term (where's kid hustlr?)



But longer term breadth measures are not super encouraging. Want to see BPSPX above 60, SPXA200R above 60 and NYSI back to 500...


----------



## waterbottle (3 February 2022)

Facebook misses earnings overnight, down a whopping 22% after hours. NASDAQ futures aren't looking too great either.

Is this the second leg down after a dead cat bounce? Hmm


----------



## CityIndex (3 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Facebook misses earnings overnight, down a whopping 22% after hours. NASDAQ futures aren't looking too great either.
> 
> Is this the second leg down after a dead cat bounce? Hmm



It could be the case, especially when looking at the way volume on S&P500 futures has been declining over the last few days of gains. The lack of bulls could call the strength of this bounce into question.

However, we are only about halfway through the US earnings season, and there’s still plenty of big names left to report, including the likes of Amazon, Snap, and Shell tomorrow. If they can provide a more positive outlook on the upcoming quarter as opposed to Meta, we could see buyers step in and continue to push the market higher.

All trading carries risk, so it will be important to watch how this unfolds before making any decisions.


----------



## waterbottle (3 February 2022)

There is also the BoE interest rate decision to be delivered tonight


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> According to Anthony Murphy of Lucerne Investment Partners, we should be getting ready for a 5Pc  Interest rate.
> From The Australian
> 
> While its debatable as to whether we get to 5%, the stunning part is the fat that 28% of ASX top 200 companies are not profitable.
> ...



I have no doubt that rates will rise but 5% seems a bit steep. 

Unlike previous cycles, the banks will not benefit, too exposed to property default and lack of spread between deposits and lends. 

Avoiding inflation and keeping unemployment down seems to be the mantra, so for us here in Australia I see Materials the way to go. 

I should state that I do not like banks. 

gg


----------



## waterbottle (4 February 2022)

NASDAQ down 3.7%.... FB lost 25% of its value in a single trading day... These are wild movements.

Now we await AMZN earnings. If they've missed then there will be more pain.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> NASDAQ down 3.7%.... FB lost 25% of its value in a single trading day... These are wild movements.
> 
> Now we await AMZN earnings. If they've missed then there will be more pain.



Well that was a king hit indeed.
Amazon has its AWS which is a truly successfull business and online shopping so not complete vapour ware..but expectations are so high.
Even decent results might not be enough to stop the slide
Dead car bounce or not, we will know by tomorrow.
If Amazon has great results the asx will have no clues on where to go.
Fall in sympathy with the US or jump on an expected rebound tonight?
But if Amazon disappoints, down we go


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2022)

And amazon results disappointing but as they announce they will charge more, after falling 8% today, now jumping 17%. In aftermarket ..why not??
Hum.. i should look at fractal and cosmic ray frequency to play these stocks
So is it a buy or a sell on asx?


----------



## Sean K (4 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> So is it a buy or a sell on asx?




I've got some PPE on at the moment.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> NASDAQ down 3.7%.... FB lost 25% of its value in a single trading day... These are wild movements.
> 
> Now we await AMZN earnings. If they've missed then there will be more pain.



With reference to the so-called "FAANG" stocks which have been dominant in recent times, that's really not working anymore.

Meta (Facebook), Amazon and Netflix aren't contributing to growth of the index that's very clear. All have either broken down or at best gone sideways in recent times.

Of the other two, Apple's still in a clear uptrend but Alphabet (Google) now looks at least suspect for a topping process.

We were in a FAANG market, which has become an AG market and looks to just becoming an A.

Once Apple peaks, game over for that whole bunch and whilst they're not ASX stocks, they've had such a role in the overall boom in recent years that their rolling over is a significant event that'll likely have broader impact. One classic sign of a major top is that one by one, the leaders of the bull peak and rollover such that continued growth of the index relies on few and fewer participants.


----------



## divs4ever (5 February 2022)

well a switch  from  'growth' ( tech ) stocks   , to either safe havens or div. stocks  would be far from painless  ( both here and the US )

Stock Markets Face A Rocky Road









						Stock Markets Face A Rocky Road | Investing.com
					

Market Overview Analysis by Michael Kramer covering: S&P 500, Netflix Inc, NASDAQ Composite, Meta Platforms Inc. Read Michael Kramer's latest article on Investing.com




					www.investing.com


----------



## waterbottle (5 February 2022)

Or there may be some new growth industry. Pie in the sky thinking makes me believe it'll be associated with the green revolution, but governments haven't convincingly moved in that direction.


----------



## wayneL (5 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Or there may be some new growth industry. Pie in the sky thinking makes me believe it'll be associated with the green revolution, but governments haven't convincingly moved in that direction.



I want to know which companies will be designing the social credit score system for us... They'll make a motza.


----------



## Sean K (5 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> I want to know which companies will be designing the social credit score system for us... They'll make a motza.




How do you reckon this will be applied and policed? Every time you do something you have to QR code in? Buying food, petrol, clothing, flights, hotels, breathing, etc.


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> How do you reckon this will be applied and policed? Every time you do something you have to QR code in? Buying food, petrol, clothing, flights, hotels, breathing, etc.



you know, the QR code you are supposed to check in, to prevend omicron from giving you fever
then step 2 reconciliation with mobile phone location and increased fine for not checking in, lastly the app itself will be always on and ratting on you unless phone is battery less


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> you know, the QR code you are supposed to check in, to prevend omicron from giving you fever
> then step 2 reconciliation with mobile phone location and increased fine for not checking in, lastly the app itself will be always on and ratting on you unless phone is battery less



I somehow believe it will be embedded with apple samsung etc

do not expect an australian company making a moza on that, will have to be 100% owned  by the US


----------



## divs4ever (5 February 2022)

Ummm  my last two phones  have non-removable  batteries ( well not easily removed  , at least ) now removing the SIM card is only a partial solution  and MAYBE turning off Wi-Fi  and Bluetooth will help  ...   but only a matter of time  before a solution will arrive  ( and be officially frowned on )


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> Ummm  my last two phones  have non-removable  batteries ( well not easily removed  , at least ) now removing the SIM card is only a partial solution  and MAYBE turning off Wi-Fi  and Bluetooth will help  ...   but only a matter of time  before a solution will arrive  ( and be officially frowned on )



Removing sim might actually help, but WiFi and Bluetooth off can be bypassed.
And now that we have starlink, it is just a matter of time before every phone from the west has a default starlink access embedded..for safety purpose of course
And who control starlink? Not the Russians or the Chineses.
What a wonderful world..
But back to thread: more Apple company support from US government.
While i hate Apple tech and PR, this is one share to get at the next crash


----------



## divs4ever (5 February 2022)

nope ! i have an iPhone ( which was a gift ) 

 i used to like Apple  back in the days of PowerPC ( and earlier )   now days it is just another product  , and there are plenty of free Unixes  which are viable alternatives ( if you can live without the app. store )

 deserves to be welded in the dungeons of Hell  

 watch Qualcomm   (wink ) it has patents ( registered everywhere including China ) so many Apple has to push others in starting anti-trust suits ( so Qualcomm won't have time to sue Apple )


----------



## IrishDigger (5 February 2022)

*Veteran Investor Warns Of Tech 'Perfect Storm' As Meta Posts Historic Dive*

Protected by a Pay Wall but the gist of it is there,









						Veteran investor warns of tech ‘perfect storm’ as Meta posts historic dive
					

The share price of Facebook’s parent company plummeted this week after it reported flat growth. Australian investors are taking note.




					www.theage.com.au


----------



## mullokintyre (7 February 2022)

Currently, we have the UK, EU, now Australia tapering or stopping  QE altogether
The US has announced it will happen soon, so with such a large amount of bond buying withdrawn, you would have to think this drying up of liquidity will have a negative effect on most economies, given that some companies have been on the QE juice for nigh on ten years.
Still keeping my powder dry. 
No where near enough blood in the streets yet, merely a trickle from a flesh wound.
Mick


----------



## frugal.rock (11 February 2022)

I have refrained from posting in here previously, however...
"When the milk turns sour, I ain't the kind of pussy who drinks it"


----------



## CityIndex (11 February 2022)

Global equity markets look like the could be in for another round of volatility, and potentially a fresh cycle lower after last night’s hot US CPI print.

At the time of writing, the ASX200 is still on track for second consecutive weekly gain despite being down around 0.7% on the day. However, yesterday’s rally coming to a halt around the 200-day MA could be extremely significant over the mid-term.

With the 200-day line having acted as a strong support level during December, it could now switch to a become long-standing resistance.

It’s important to remember that all trading carries risk. However, it’ll be worth watching if Wednesday’s rejection leads to another leg lower, or if a hold above 4200 can spark a retest and potential breakout of the moving average.


----------



## mullokintyre (15 February 2022)

From Wall street on Parade 


> The stock market indices that get all the headlines have failed to capture the brutal deterioration that has been occurring for months among the individual stock components of those indices.
> 
> In early February, Bank of America reported that 46 percent of Nasdaq’s component companies were more than 50 percent below their 52-week highs. And the deterioration in breadth began long before February.
> 
> On December 28, 2021, _Wall Street On Parade_ ran this headline: A Tale of Two Markets: S&P 500 Notches Its 69th Record Close as the Bottom Falls Out of the Nasdaq. We noted in the article that “On December 3 there were 585 new 52-week lows on the Nasdaq stock market versus 12 new 52-week highs. To look at it another way, 48.75 times more stocks were setting new 52-week lows than were reaching new 52-week highs. That doesn’t sound like the definition of a bull market to us.”



Looks like a  stock market fall,  walks like a stock market fall, smells like a stock market fall, quacks like a stock market fall,  buts it is actually a duck.
Mick


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

Bumpity bumpity bump bump bump.

It that fear I smell?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 February 2022)

gg


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> gg




At my stage in life I prefer Apocalypse Never, GG.

Hence I invoke the old cliche - There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are no old and bold traders.


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> At my stage in life I prefer Apocalypse Never, GG.



Great book.


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Great book.



Hmm, did not know there was a book by the title, looks interesting and definitely will put it in the queue of books to read.

I first saw the phrase coined by Stuart Johnston, a futures options trader whose book i can't remember the name of, but a very interesting and enlightning read too.

FWIW


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Hmm, did not know there was a book by the title, looks interesting and definitely will put it in the queue of books to read.
> 
> I first saw the phrase coined by Stuart Johnston, a futures options trader whose book i can't remember the name of, but a very interesting and enlightning read too.
> 
> FWIW



I personally rate it much higher than what is indicated in the Amazon link.

Some of his strategies I wouldn't implement in a month of Sundays, but still a very interesting read and entertaining to boot.

I read this took quite a long time ago and some of the takeaways I still use to this day.

FWIW


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Hmm, did not know there was a book by the title, looks interesting and definitely will put it in the queue of books to read.




One all global warming alarmists must read.


----------



## CityIndex (2 March 2022)

The ASX200 is trading 0.3% higher, at the time of writing, following strong GDP data showing the Aussie economy's rebound during Q4 2021, as VIC and NSW emerged from lockdowns. With overall data for Q1 also looking promising so far, can a strong economic outlook help bolster the Aussie market from risk-off sentiment that the Russia-Ukraine war is creating overseas? 

All trading carries risk, and it'll be important to monitor all factors as the situation in Ukraine is still showing signs of escalating, and adding to the bearish pressure on risk-assets.


----------



## CityIndex (15 March 2022)

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ASX200 has traded in a range between 7200 and 6950, signaling significant demand from investors on any dips below 7000.

However, holding support around this key psychological level could be at risk with new lockdown restrictions in China joining the Ukraine crisis, and important central bank developments, on the list of things that could weigh on risk sentiment.

All trading carries risk, but with commodity prices already tumbling on the news, will we see the ASX start a new leg lower today?


----------



## Gunnerguy (15 March 2022)

CityIndex said:


> Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ASX200 has traded in a range between 7200 and 6950, signaling significant demand from investors on any dips below 7000.
> 
> However, holding support around this key psychological level could be at risk with new lockdown restrictions in China joining the Ukraine crisis, and important central bank developments, on the list of things that could weigh on risk sentiment.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but with commodity prices already tumbling on the news, will we see the ASX start a new leg lower today?



@CityIndex  I see your on AusFinance in Reddit also .....

Gunnerguy


----------



## mullokintyre (15 March 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> @CityIndex  I see your on AusFinance in Reddit also .....
> 
> Gunnerguy



Wot, and not on Hotcopper as well?
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 March 2022)

Self promotion is an art, it seems. Now generated by AI. Index, you've been fingered

Anyhow, as it is the Ides of March, it's a good time to extend caution . Beware.  Though optimistically:
_ut annare perannareque commode liceat_


----------



## mullokintyre (15 March 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Self promotion is an art, it seems. Now generated by AI. Index, you've been fingered
> 
> Anyhow, as it is the Ides of March, it's a good time to extend caution . Beware.  Though optimistically:
> _ut annare perannareque commode liceat_



So what do you suggest we sacrifice to complete the circle?
Its enormously difficult to find a Virgin these days, so maybe a goat will do??
Mick


----------



## frugal.rock (15 March 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> So what do you suggest we sacrifice to complete the circle?



Politicians ?
Mainstream breakfast show hosts?
I think we're spoiled for choice... or perhaps those choices will bring about further anger from said mythical entities. 😱


----------



## CityIndex (22 April 2022)

Tech stocks have struggled all year on monetary policy speculation, so wasn’t surprising to see Chair Powell’s hawkish comments add to their misery as yields resume their move higher.

What is concerning is that the ASX’s heavy weighting in commodity stocks, which has been its saving grace so far, could now also begin to drag the index lower as mining giants have been releasing weak quarterly reports, despite the surge in commodity prices.

Energy and basic materials led the S&P500 lower overnight, while mining shares also held the FTSE back amid a rally across other European indices yesterday.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how this translates into the ASX200 as well with shares currently close to 1.6% in early trade.

Any chance of the index recovering to hold support at its 10-day MA around 7500 today, or are we in for a deeper pullback?


----------



## 3 hound (22 April 2022)

New to all this and watching a lot of YT investing channels and it appears as far as the financial universe goes everything all the time is about to collapse leading to famine, pestilence, societal breakdown and cannibalism. It's like the finances channels are scripted by the old testament writers.

I am starting to think the finances/investment crowd need to fix their make up, stop being so melodramatic and chill.

It's PTSD inducing, I just wanna keep my savings level with or just above  inflation and call it a day.


----------



## divs4ever (22 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> New to all this and watching a lot of YT investing channels and it appears as far as the financial universe goes everything all the time is about to collapse leading to famine, pestilence, societal breakdown and cannibalism. It's like the finances channels are scripted by the old testament writers.
> 
> I am starting to think the finances/investment crowd need to fix their make up, stop being so melodramatic and chill.
> 
> It's PTSD inducing, I just wanna keep my savings level with or just above  inflation and call it a day.



 now while you are watching  all that  , keep thinking about better ways  to invest  that cash ( for you )

 it might be better skills/education , or gold or silver  maybe grow a little garden ( take some bite out of your food bill )

but yes at the worst  all those terrible things are possible 

 remember all that discomfort and suffering is called .. experience 

( keep watching for opportunities , big and small )


----------



## wayneL (22 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> New to all this and watching a lot of YT investing channels and it appears as far as the financial universe goes everything all the time is about to collapse leading to famine, pestilence, societal breakdown and cannibalism. It's like the finances channels are scripted by the old testament writers.
> 
> I am starting to think the finances/investment crowd need to fix their make up, stop being so melodramatic and chill.
> 
> It's PTSD inducing, I just wanna keep my savings level with or just above  inflation and call it a day.



It seems to be an allure of calling the crash. There are no Guru points for being a permabull because you're going to be right most of the time anyway and when it does crash you look like a goofball.

Robert Prechter lived for years off getting one particular bearish call right... Even though everything else after that was dead wrong.


----------



## 3 hound (22 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> It seems to be an allure of calling the crash. There are no Guru points for being a permabull because you're going to be right most of the time anyway and when it does crash you look like a goofball.
> 
> Robert Prechter lived for years off getting one particular bearish call right... Even though everything else after that was dead wrong.




It's like the market will fluctuate up and down but on average over a long enough time period there will be an upward trend - every YT market analyst ever.


----------



## divs4ever (22 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> It seems to be an allure of calling the crash. There are no Guru points for being a permabull because you're going to be right most of the time anyway and when it does crash you look like a goofball.
> 
> Robert Prechter lived for years off getting one particular bearish call right... Even though everything else after that was dead wrong.




 yep , the trick is to get the money on the right bet ( if investing/trading )

 or your call so outrageous but CORRECT , that everyone remembers it  ( and hey, dude you have a reputation )

  ( imo ) a permabull  relies on inflation ( spending power devaluation ) while the permabear watches  productivity and efficiency


----------



## 3 hound (22 April 2022)

How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..


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## wayneL (22 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..



IIRC, Buffet/Graham had some research on that point. My recollection is a little bit hazy so do your own research there... But I think that's where you will find your answer.


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## divs4ever (22 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..



 now  one way of doing that  is to measure units   .. say hours the average worker ( still uses imprecise data ) to work to buy a house ( car  , etc )

 another way  is to calculate in ounces of gold  ( still imprecise  because of gold price manipulation )

 now a confounding factor in this is the quality change ( over the years )  of the asset bought  ( 'average ' doesn't really count if the house is shoddily  built in some perfab factory  , or a current new car  is now up to the standard of a 1990's Rolls Royce )

 you could try the 'loaves of bread metric ' ( or something similar )

 i saw too much data manipulated over the years  , so just try  for a 'livable income ' for the cash invested  ( 100% rise in your portfolio doesn't mean much if a kilo of rice has quadrupled )

 try it in kilos of rice , it can't be much worse that other comparative metrics used elsewhere 

 ( but the short answer is  you aren't supposed to be able to work it out , easily , the government is very happy to steal your productivity  away via inflation and taxation , and hopes you don't notice the crime in progress  ) 

 cheers 

 Alternate Inflation Charts






						Alternate Inflation Charts
					






					www.shadowstats.com
				




 this guy makes a plausible stab  at real inflation 

 DYOR


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## wayneL (23 April 2022)

@3 hound 

More grist for the mill. But as way of disclaimer, I am halfway into this analysis (but halfway into the crack up boom scenario)

Either way I claim Guru status


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## 3 hound (23 April 2022)

Can you explain a little what's going on here plz.


wayneL said:


> @3 hound
> 
> More grist for the mill. But as way of disclaimer, I am halfway into this analysis (but halfway into the crack up boom scenario)
> 
> Either way I claim Guru status


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## wayneL (23 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Can you explain a little what's going on here plz.



Lots of YouTube commentary from credible sources regarding movements in the yen at the moment

Here's one which I think is pretty good 



Crack up boom scenario is straight out of Austrian economics theory and is easily searchable. Von Mises institute is very good site for that.


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## divs4ever (23 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> @3 hound
> 
> More grist for the mill. But as way of disclaimer, I am halfway into this analysis (but halfway into the crack up boom scenario)
> 
> Either way I claim Guru status




 true, but Japan has been flapping those wings for over 20 years ( but i am NOT saying  the status quo will last forever )
 the problem is it is NOT just Japan  flapping those wings in the same fashion


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## sptrawler (23 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..



That is very true, then add to that the fact a lot of companies actually go broke or perform extremely badly, AMP a case in point. 
IMO that is why EFT's like VAS are doing so well, as you say the market is a reflection of its value at a given point in time, but the same companies may not be making up the market at those chosen points of time.
So being in the market for the long haul isn't the whole story, being in the market and in the right shares is just as important IMO, the market value grows as the countries underlying economy grows but technology etc may change the makeup of the share market.
So EFT's consisting of the top companies and adjusting the weighting to their ranking, might be hard to beat, not impossible but over the long term one has to wonder.
I have no EFT's ATM, but after watching VAS from the covid stock market crash to present, if there is another crash I think I will be buying some.


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## wayneL (23 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> true, but Japan has been flapping those wings for over 20 years ( but i am NOT saying  the status quo will last forever )
> the problem is it is NOT just Japan  flapping those wings in the same fashion



True, true.

It's the kicking the can down the road scenario. How far can you kick it?


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## frugal.rock (23 April 2022)

Am about halfway through this, link below.
Interesting.
Earlier in the year, I noticed world money flows out of the US and Aus, some into the Yen, but more so the Euro. Soon after Ukraine started, tables were turned.
Money rushed largely back to the US.
Japan's inflation indicating a weaker economy, better returns in the US.
Petrodollar system still working, and working well... those sneaky Americans. The whole situation smells of assisting the US in their can kicking exercises.









						Why has the yen fallen to a 20-year low?
					

Since the beginning of March, the value of the yen has plummeted against the dollar, the euro and the British pound. Bloomberg economy reporter Yuko Takeo joins Deep Dive to explain why.




					www.japantimes.co.jp


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## frugal.rock (23 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's the kicking the can down the road scenario. How far can you kick it?



Oooh, you beat me to it!

We might just get a reprieve on our markets from Anzac Day holiday Monday.
Just need the US to turn around Monday night.
180 US companies out of the SP 500 reporting next week, so could get choppy...😬


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## frugal.rock (23 April 2022)

Japan has raised the issue with the G7.
It is possible the Yen will soon bottom out. 
I'm wondering why Japan's inflation is so low?
Still playing the pandemic card. Are they that self sufficient? High inflation couldn't be too far off though... an inevitable situation being an importer of commodities for their manufacturing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...what-rapid-declines-finmin-suzuki-2022-04-21/


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## divs4ever (23 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Can you explain a little what's going on here plz.



 basically what is happening  is some nations are borrowing more than they can ever possibly repay  , this isn't a problem ( to modern financial thinking ) as long as you can pay the interest incurred on that debt

 so while interest rates are low ( or negative ) everything LOOKS fine  , when interest rate rise to a realistic level  to the risks taken (remember some of these  nations will NEVER be able to repay what is borrowed   even at 1% interest ( per year ) .. so what is a fair rate of interest  to someone who is highly unlikely to repay the principle ( despite the ravages of inflation )  surely not 1% .

 say you are a South American nation ( most are politically unstable ) so  many are lent money at rates over 10% per year  , now the lender assesses they will never get  all that money back ( the borrower will probably refinance later down the track ) BUT the lender will recover the investment via interest repayments  in say 10 years , double that cash in twenty years  , etc etc  and the borrower is locked in for decades 

 ( and the lender normally takes out insurance to cover the possibility of a default  , that is just straight de-risking strategy )

 now Japan has created a special scenario  it has borrowed most of the  money from the citizens ( current and future ) but ALSO has sold that debt as an asset  to ( mainly ) Japanese pension funds  AND bought ( via ETFs ) massive holdings in the Japanese stock markets  , to prop up the stock market and boost 'the perceived wealth ' of the citizen  , this is all done with the money Japan can not afford to pay back , but relies on the national spirit to resist overthrowing the government ( system )


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## divs4ever (23 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> True, true.
> 
> It's the kicking the can down the road scenario. How far can you kick it?



 well they have done so , far longer than i imagined possible , can they continue to do so for the rest of my life ( after i am gone , it won't matter to me )

 so i guess Warren Buffet   gets the kudos here  with the pearl of wisdom  ' the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent '


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## 3 hound (23 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> basically what is happening  is some nations are borrowing more than they can ever possibly repay  , this isn't a problem ( to modern financial thinking ) as long as you can pay the interest incurred on that debt
> 
> so while interest rates are low ( or negative ) everything LOOKS fine  , when interest rate rise to a realistic level  to the risks taken (remember some of these  nations will NEVER be able to repay what is borrowed   even at 1% interest ( per year ) .. so what is a fair rate of interest  to someone who is highly unlikely to repay the principle ( despite the ravages of inflation )  surely not 1% .
> 
> ...




Geez why would you ever lend to an unstable country and what happens if they outright refuse to make payments?


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## qldfrog (23 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..






3 hound said:


> Geez why would you ever lend to an unstable country and what happens if they outright refuse to make payments?



USA a case in point? people are still giving their money with neg interest to France or Italy....not a joke


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## 3 hound (23 April 2022)

qldfrog said:


> USA a case in point? people are still giving their money with neg interest to France or Italy....not a joke



Must be more to it than money eg getting political power over another country or some shady stuff like that.


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## divs4ever (23 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Geez why would you ever lend to an unstable country and what happens if they outright refuse to make payments?



 one attraction  is the high interest returns you are liable to get  ( and if clever you have worked out ways to more than halve the risk ) ( sell the insurance derivatives to pension funds , perhaps )

 this is usually HIGH risk-high reward  investing , although some give it unpleasant names like vulture capitalism 

 the usual  problem ( unless a political revolution  ) is they CAN'T pay rather than won't  , study drug addicts for some insight  to a similar problem . ( the borrower NEEDS the money , but can't earn enough to repay in full  in the time promised )

 in the event of revolution  ( the most common cause of refusal ) you are suddenly talking to all new people  , so  THEY do not feel responsible , and often will embrace violence  to strengthen their position 

 oh , by the way  have you ever heard of tax losses ( where you share the losses with the taxpayer )

 the lenders doing this are  usually very , very smart   and greedy ( but not always so honest )


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## divs4ever (23 April 2022)

qldfrog said:


> USA a case in point? people are still giving their money with neg interest to France or Italy....not a joke



 but it makes me curl up in laughter anyway  ( and keep my cash far away from such places )

 but to be fair , they are often using leverage to do so ( to amplify the gains  and hope the government will help reduce the losses )


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## divs4ever (23 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Must be more to it than money eg getting political power over another country or some shady stuff like that.



 yes that also  , try to find info on the Pfizer vaccine contracts  signed by South American nations  , some contracts demanded ports and even military bases as collateral ( which is why such contracts are normally state secrets )


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## Rabbithop (23 April 2022)

sptrawler said:


> It could go to the $15 area, where I picked them up a couple of months ago.



I will not be suprise with $15 its free fall and likely will happen if DJ tank again on our ANZAC monday holiday.


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## CityIndex (26 April 2022)

This seems like the appropriate thread today since the ASX200 is in fact tanking in early trade, currently down 2.4% as the COVID situation in China worsens and weighs on local commodity stocks.

The strong rejection above 7600 to end last week left scope for a retest of the 200-day MA, but as things stand, the ASX looks on course to break this key support level.

Of course, all trading carries risk, and we could see a bounce if the outlook for commodities improves, but a close below the 200-day line does open the possibility to an even deeper pullback.


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## wayneL (6 May 2022)

ASX is looking technically bearish and with deeper cracks appearing in the bond market, are we starting to panic yet?


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## greggles (6 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> ASX is looking technically bearish and with deeper cracks appearing in the bond market, are we starting to panic yet?




Cracks starting to appear in the Chinese economy too, as the CCP doubles down on its "zero covid" strategy. The politics over pragmatism approach is coming at a heavy economic cost with some analysts predicting that Chinese economic growth will fall to under 4% this year. No doubt China will ramp up the economic stimulus if that happens, but that will be like putting a band-aid on an open wound.

Up until now, the Ukraine effect has been felt more in countries that sourced their food from that region. There are longer term macro reverberations to come that will have a wider impact.

I don't see a recovery anytime soon and am expecting a very rough ride for the ASX this year. Precious metals and cash look safest to me.


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## wayneL (6 May 2022)

greggles said:


> Cracks starting to appear in the Chinese economy too, as the CCP doubles down on its "zero covid" strategy. The politics over pragmatism approach is coming at a heavy economic cost with some analysts predicting that Chinese economic growth will fall to under 4% this year. No doubt China will ramp up the economic stimulus if that happens, but that will be like putting a band-aid on an open wound.
> 
> Up until now, the Ukraine effect has been felt more in countries that sourced their food from that region. There are longer term macro reverberations to come that will have a wider impact.
> 
> I don't see a recovery anytime soon and am expecting a very rough ride for the ASX this year. Precious metals and cash look safest to me.



As I've said elsewhere there is a real concern about cash "in the bank".

It must never be forgotten your deposits are treated as an unsecured loan to the bank with the bank dictating the terms of the loan, (and not really in your favour). Additionally, those terms are variable at their discretion.

That is actually the worst deal in the financial world, which only ever becomes apparent when things turn to crap.


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## greggles (6 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> As I've said elsewhere there is a real concern about cash "in the bank".




I prefer my cash in an airtight and watertight lockbox. Preferably buried somewhere on several acres.


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> ASX is looking technically bearish and with deeper cracks appearing in the bond market, are we starting to panic yet?



 NOPE but missed some buy targets by narrow margins , so ALMOST got excited 

 maybe next week


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

greggles said:


> I prefer my cash in an airtight and watertight lockbox. Preferably buried somewhere on several acres.



 i prefer to shift it into something income  generating   , or a physical  asset  ,  but cash in the trading account is a distant second best


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> As I've said elsewhere there is a real concern about cash "in the bank".
> 
> It must never be forgotten your deposits are treated as an unsecured loan to the bank with the bank dictating the terms of the loan, (and not really in your favour). Additionally, those terms are variable at their discretion.
> 
> That is actually the worst deal in the financial world, which only ever becomes apparent when things turn to crap.



 YEP  , cash is trash according to one guru  ( i prefer to think of it as a stepping stone to something better )


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## sptrawler (6 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> As I've said elsewhere there is a real concern about cash "in the bank".
> 
> It must never be forgotten your deposits are treated as an unsecured loan to the bank with the bank dictating the terms of the loan, (and not really in your favour). Additionally, those terms are variable at their discretion.
> 
> That is actually the worst deal in the financial world, which only ever becomes apparent when things turn to crap.



The thing is, if there is a crash, you have to have something to buy into the opportunity.
The last thing a first world country is going to do is let its citizens lose their savings, especially Australia which really only has four major banks, they also make up a huge amount of the superannuation savings of Australians.
Only my thoughts, I have lived through quite a few major financial system disruptions, the only ones who seem to come out of the crisis well are those who buy in at or near the bottom.
Keeping all your money in the mattress is risky and buying bullion is just as risky as money in the bank IMO.
So maybe someone can give me a tip on a safe, liquid and easily accessible reserve of collateral, that I can use on comsec.


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## bluekelah (6 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The thing is, if there is a crash, you have to have something to buy into the opportunity.






sptrawler said:


> The thing is, if there is a crash, you have to have something to buy into the opportunity.
> The last thing a first world country is going to do is let its citizens lose their savings, especially Australia which really only has four major banks, they also make up a huge amount of the superannuation savings of Australians.
> Only my thoughts, I have lived through quite a few major financial system disruptions, the only ones who seem to come out of the crisis well are those who buy in at or near the bottom.
> Keeping all your money in the mattress is risky and buying bullion is just as risky as money in the bank IMO.
> So maybe someone can give me a tip on a safe, liquid and easily accessible reserve of collateral, that I can use on comsec.



Actually a possible alternative u can use is to keep your spare cash as gold. U can keep your funds backed by gold in a perth mint gold account. And some in physical. Be your own bank. Maybe have enough cash just 10k  to cover daily expenses and online purchases Don't need much if u have a few k income stream a month. 

Just treat the gold as a store of wealth and alternative private currency. In the short term gold prices are usually as stable as currencies. 

During a crash like during covid March 2020 if u like to time markets, u can always at a small expense convert your gold to cash then to stocks. And if u need to buy a car etc.. I am sure u be able to find someone willing to trade their car for physical gold.


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## sptrawler (6 May 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Actually a possible alternative u can use is to keep your spare cash as gold. U can keep your funds backed by gold in a perth mint gold account. And some in physical. Be your own bank. Maybe have enough cash just 10k  to cover daily expenses and online purchases Don't need much if u have a few k income stream a month.
> 
> Just treat the gold as a store of wealth and alternative private currency. In the short term gold prices are usually as stable as currencies.
> 
> During a crash like during covid March 2020 if u like to time markets, u can always at a small expense convert your gold to cash then to stocks. And if u need to buy a car etc.. I am sure u be able to find someone willing to trade their car for physical gold.











						How the US government seized all citizens' gold in 1930s
					

You’ve heard of compulsory purchase orders for houses, but few realise it has sometimes happened with the world’s favourite precious metal.




					theconversation.com
				



From the article:
_Many gold owners were understandably unhappy about the gold seizure, and some fought it in the courts. Ultimately, however, the government could not be stopped, and gold ownership remained illegal in the US until the 1970s.

This intervention was not unique, even in contemporary history. In 1959, Australia’s government put a law in place that allowed gold seizures from private citizens if “expedient to do so, for the protection of the currency or of the public credit of the Commonwealth [of Australia]”. And in 1966, to stop the decline in the pound, the UK government banned citizens from owning more than four gold or silver coins and blocked the private import of gold. This was only lifted in 1979._

So whether you get a surcharge on your savings, or have your gold in the Perth Mint confiscated is a similar scenario, if the manure hits the fan we are all in it together. 
From memory it wasn't until the late 1970's that gold in Australia could be sold on the open market. before it was deregulated it could only be sold to the Government, it nearly sent Kalgoorlie broke.


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## sptrawler (6 May 2022)

Here is a chart showing the jump in gold price in the 1970's, before deregulation from memory they could only sell it to the RBA for around $50 when on the open market it was around $250/oz.
If there is a massive crisis and gold becomes the only valuable asset, the Govt would just re regulate it IMO.


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The thing is, if there is a crash, you have to have something to buy into the opportunity.
> The last thing a first world country is going to do is let its citizens lose their savings, especially Australia which really only has four major banks, they also make up a huge amount of the superannuation savings of Australians.
> Only my thoughts, I have lived through quite a few major financial system disruptions, the only ones who seem to come out of the crisis well are those who buy in at or near the bottom.
> Keeping all your money in the mattress is risky and buying bullion is just as risky as money in the bank IMO.
> So maybe someone can give me a tip on a safe, liquid and easily accessible reserve of collateral, that I can use on comsec.



 ALL investing involves risk  ( even doing nothing during an inflationary period )

 buying bullion ( or other physical  ) stashed somewhere close and secret  has known risks if you keep the secret  , if you survive the carnage  , there is a fair chance  your physical  can be exchanged for something useful/essential  ( silver  for a bag of rice/wheat , gold for some milking cows or maybe  even an operating business or home  as examples )

 buying at the bottom is a nice strategy if you can do  it  , the best i normally do  is 'reasonably low '  often followed by a dead-cat bounce ( and a fall further )

 who says Australia will stay a first world nation this time after we are talking war to China ( who threw us a lifeline in the GFC ) , sorry i can't assume that next crash  , we have plenty of mineral resources  but the government is offending a major customer ( China ) and neglected forming close ties with the world leader in waiting ( India )

 the obvious way out of the next crash  , is to use our resources  and start manufacturing again ( but i bet we won't )

 regarding  citizens of a 'first world nation ' losing their savings look no further than  the UK and US ( and you could probably add Japan ) , THAT is coming like a speeding train ( expect governments to limit pension fund draw-downs , assuming they survive the crash )

 Greece and Cyprus   changed the paradigm  when an international debtor can take control of the local banking system 

 and NO i don't have the perfect strategy yet , i have resorted to multiple small strategies ( hoard some long-life food , hoard some hard commodities , a few collectibles , some shares , and hopefully look like too small a target for desperate banks and government 

and yes i have SOME cash reserves  but well under the 'deposit guarantee'  ( per ADI invested with )

 now i hope i am completely wrong , but i am certainly not taking sweet assurances from either government or banker ( both have lied to me before , and i expect they will do it again )

 BTW  check out what Australia did to it's citizens during WW2 ( 'cos ) Dutton is talking about a war with China so the Australian taxpayer will be excepted to suck up the pain and expense 

 cheers


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Here is a chart showing the jump in gold price in the 1970's, before deregulation from memory they could only sell it to the RBA for around $50 when on the open market it was around $250/oz.
> If there is a massive crisis and gold becomes the only valuable asset, the Govt would just re regulate it IMO.
> 
> View attachment 141333



only through legal channels  ( desperate people do desperate things ) ( that is way the crypto-fans  see a place for their system , outside official channels  )

 i am told during the depression and  WW2  bookie's markers ( betting debts ) was a tradeable commodity ( a specialty skilled slave for a while )


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> How the US government seized all citizens' gold in 1930s
> 
> 
> You’ve heard of compulsory purchase orders for houses, but few realise it has sometimes happened with the world’s favourite precious metal.
> ...




 India tried banning the importation of gold as well a while  back  but was only moderately successful  ( Australia might  have tighter  borders  , unless Indonesia  let's the refugees  flood through )


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## bluekelah (6 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> ALL investing involves risk  ( even doing nothing during an inflationary period )
> 
> buying bullion ( or other physical  ) stashed somewhere close and secret  has known risks if you keep the secret  , if you survive the carnage  , there is a fair chance  your physical  can be exchanged for something useful/essential  ( silver  for a bag of rice/wheat , gold for some milking cows or maybe  even an operating business or home  as examples )
> 
> ...



As I mention in the other threads, always better to be your own bank.
have half and half in gold and silver insurance for a rainy day. chances are you wont have to use it.
Gold is actually very very liquid and you can actually cost average down and sometimes even make good profit trading part of it during price spikes. you be surprised how easy it it to sell 1kg of silver or 1oz of gold cast bars in your local community or in the online bullion groups.

Hiding it at home is easy, you can use 100oz silver bars (3kg worth $3k plus now as door stops) . 1oz tiny gold bars are the size of small erasers, you could keep 10pieces (worth 27k ) easily in a kids stationary box or some oil container amongst the junk in your garage.

POllies can say whatever they want, fact is we are a 26million strong nation vs China 1400million. War? Trade War? lol...


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## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

bluekelah said:


> POllies can say whatever they want, fact is we are a 26million strong nation vs China 1400million. War? Trade War? lol..



 i reckon we have 2 million of Asian descent  ( i can't reliably pick the Chinese from the rest ) so you would have to detain them  all  ( even the fifth and sixth generation Australians  ) and probably their spouses if not Asian  to boot 

 so 2 million ( plus ) in interment camps   that quite a few guards   needed and think of the hit to business  and the workforce  , i reckon the pollies should be sent to re-education camps to learn MATHS , before they start with stuff like that 

 and a trade war would have a similar outcome Mongolia is just waiting for more exploration and development  , no boats needed


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## sptrawler (6 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i reckon we have 2 million of Asian descent  ( i can't reliably pick the Chinese from the rest ) so you would have to detain them  all  ( even the fifth and sixth generation Australians  ) and probably their spouses if not Asian  to boot
> 
> so 2 million ( plus ) in interment camps   that quite a few guards   needed and think of the hit to business  and the workforce  , i reckon the pollies should be sent to re-education camps to learn MATHS , before they start with stuff like that
> 
> and a trade war would have a similar outcome Mongolia is just waiting for more exploration and development  , no boats needed





			https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/why-young-aussies-wouldnt-stay-and-fight/news-story/8457efb71097a8395230cc38d08d5747
		

The media has spent the last 20 years telling the young that Australia is $hit, I guess they have finally got the message.


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## bluekelah (6 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i reckon we have 2 million of Asian descent  ( i can't reliably pick the Chinese from the rest ) so you would have to detain them  all  ( even the fifth and sixth generation Australians  ) and probably their spouses if not Asian  to boot
> 
> so 2 million ( plus ) in interment camps   that quite a few guards   needed and think of the hit to business  and the workforce  , i reckon the pollies should be sent to re-education camps to learn MATHS , before they start with stuff like that
> 
> and a trade war would have a similar outcome Mongolia is just waiting for more exploration and development  , no boats needed



well if labor wins this round, we could see better relations with China. They can always rope in Kevin to help out 

Other than our minerals and worlds largest undug reserves of gold, no one would really be interested in ever invading downunder,  its logistically too far and too troublesome, would make it too costly as well.   We just have to mind our own business and be trade friendly and life will go on...


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## divs4ever (7 May 2022)

bluekelah said:


> well if labor wins this round, we could see better relations with China. They can always rope in Kevin to help out
> 
> Other than our minerals and worlds largest undug reserves of gold, no one would really be interested in ever invading downunder,  its logistically too far and too troublesome, would make it too costly as well.   We just have to mind our own business and be trade friendly and life will go on...



 that was the Japanese assessment made before WW2 so the Japanese  were hell  bent to control India ( at least the part now known as Bangladesh  ), 

 HOWEVER the US came here  and created several military  ( and supply) bases   AND we sided with the Allies  ( who had by then put sanctions on Japan )  so Australia was bumped up the priority list  , but they REALLY needed India ( Bangladesh ) for the rice ( to feed themselves )

 THIS time we have several US military facilities  INCLUDING an important  part of the missile  guidance system  , so China IF it mounts a major invasion force ( and i think they won't ) Australia would be one of several  targets ( Guam , Okinawa , the Philippines would probably higher priority )

 If China  reclaims Taiwan  , i think it would mount a defensive war   basically exhausting the US of troops and resources on Chinese soil  and THEN expand in the South China Sea  region after US was drained of offensive capability 

 confounding factors ... would Vietnam   stay neutral or help China ??   , i suspect North Korea  would help China where it could  , either by attacking US bases in South Korea , or just restarting the Korean War ( which  is still  only a truce , currently )

for a totally bizarre twist  , maybe even the Taliban would help China  where it could ( it has a nice little stock-pile of weapons , NOW )

 am not sure Kevin 07  is all that popular with China now ( unless you compare him to Peter Dutton's relations with China )

 Albo is Albo , and the Chinese might accept him in preference to other ALP snakes in the grass 

 but don't get too excited today's ALP are a bunch of corporate whores , half of them have never done a week's blue-collar work in their life  they are university-trained Fabian Socialists  ( as fake as the US Democrats )


----------



## divs4ever (7 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/why-young-aussies-wouldnt-stay-and-fight/news-story/8457efb71097a8395230cc38d08d5747
> 
> 
> The media has spent the last 20 years telling the young that Australia is $hit, I guess they have finally got the message.



Australia has certainly wasted potential , whether it is the locally grown kids  or the immigrants that have arrived here anytime after WW2 
 AND there is a trend to educate them until they are broke for decades ( the extended juvenile distraction system ..  high school/college/university ) and when they finally finish they are loaded with HECS debt and have difficulty finding a job they are qualified for in Australia  , i would love to blame the younger generations BUT the problem is much deeper and systematic 

 and BTW way the media should know , most were trained in the same universities that helped ruin Australia


----------



## Rabbithop (7 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that was the Japanese assessment made before WW2 so the Japanese  were hell  bent to control India ( at least the part now known as Bangladesh  ),
> 
> HOWEVER the US came here  and created several military  ( and supply) bases   AND we sided with the Allies  ( who had by then put sanctions on Japan )  so Australia was bumped up the priority list  , but they REALLY needed India ( Bangladesh ) for the rice ( to feed themselves )
> 
> ...



Don't know much about paragraph 1,6 and the end. Other than that..I am on the same views.


----------



## bluekelah (7 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that was the Japanese assessment made before WW2 so the Japanese  were hell  bent to control India ( at least the part now known as Bangladesh  ),
> 
> HOWEVER the US came here  and created several military  ( and supply) bases   AND we sided with the Allies  ( who had by then put sanctions on Japan )  so Australia was bumped up the priority list  , but they REALLY needed India ( Bangladesh ) for the rice ( to feed themselves )
> 
> ...



Wars historically are all funded by those with the gold. At the moment USA lacks real gold to fund any big wars other than trade wars. They only have their fiat currency/ reserve currency, not much use in a real global war situation where countries will not sell you stuff without getting their payment in solid gold.

In fact internally its gotten so polarised, they may more likely have another civil war or riots type scenario, especially now with high inflation, common folks supporting democrats a lot are fed up with rising cost and are changing their support back to trump and friends. i seen some videos of americans complaining about Biden throwing billions at Ukraine when their own people are suffering from poverty etc...

China is pretty much surrounded at the moment at the eastern side , Japan taiwan phillipine south korea all have american military bases / forces , so they can only slowly take over small islands and build small bases like those in south china sea. And now they are busy with Covid and controlling their population post property price crash and post-tech boom crash, any invasion of Taiwan would not be high priority. 

I believe we are likely to enter a period of stagflation, countries will be busy trying to beat inflation and dealing with recessions, and as the war goes on, countries become more closed up and protectionist due to a shortage of goods  and supply chain disruptions. For example indonesia has banned palm oil exports recently.


----------



## qldfrog (8 May 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Wars historically are all funded by those with the gold. At the moment USA lacks real gold to fund any big wars other than trade wars. They only have their fiat currency/ reserve currency, not much use in a real global war situation where countries will not sell you stuff without getting their payment in solid gold.
> 
> In fact internally its gotten so polarised, they may more likely have another civil war or riots type scenario, especially now with high inflation, common folks supporting democrats a lot are fed up with rising cost and are changing their support back to trump and friends. i seen some videos of americans complaining about Biden throwing billions at Ukraine when their own people are suffering from poverty etc...
> 
> ...



Definitively a reasonable prediction, i am a firm believer in the influence of the WEF Reset..and these guys would not let that scenario survive.
I expect a push to war .
Just hope they will fail and normal economics and population rejects will collapse their agenda.
The response of people to the Ukrainian scenario is the key.
Currently, European populations are letting an economic suicide go unchallenged, but they had lost all cohesion and were already down the drain via decades of migration push 
So big one is the US/Canada citizens responses.
Canada had the truck blockade .. crashed down..
Will the American spirit save them/us?
I am sceptical.
if Americans just comply, total war hot or economic is next with currency collapse, famine, asset seizure, market closure and Orwell world based on new gov crypto currency with total control on  information, finance and freedom/absence of justified by the conflict. Vs Russia China...
I am not talking decades, but years at most.
Where does that leave the ASX?
Not in a decade long boom..


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## divs4ever (8 May 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Don't know much about paragraph 1,6 and the end. Other than that..I am on the same views.



 there are ( or were ) several books  in English ( translated from Japanese) about the Japanese government strategies leading up to  , and during WW2  in earlier times i read widely  often reading WW1 , WW2 and Boer War ( and others ) texts looking at strategies and motivations 

one Japanese text  about the Japanese spy agency  was very enlightening 

 ( i have a philosophy of  'if it happened once , it may happen again ')

 obviously the Chinese would not use the same strategy  in considering to invade Australia , but a smaller Asian neighbour might


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## divs4ever (8 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Definitively a reasonable prediction, i am a firm believer in the influence of the WEF Reset..and these guys would not let that scenario survive.
> I expect a push to war .
> Just hope they will fail and normal economics and population rejects will collapse their agenda.
> The response of people to the Ukrainian scenario is the key.
> ...



 however i do notice a trend of seizing assets without due process , ( regardless of size or influence ) i hope those with huge egos realize the precedent has been clearly set ,  and such activities are liable to become commonly and widely accepted ( and only one group plans to own everything , no matter what the legal structure looks like )

 just saying  ( especially when those huge egos  use corruption as one of their tools of operation )

the ASX ( and ASIC and APRA ) have had their problems , many of them white-washed over  , i guess time will tell 

 citizen response do NOT have to HUGE or even  overt ( or even organized ) that public peaceful idea can be a trap in itself ( look at the Canadian Truckers )

 once the narrative unravels  the ruling agenda is lost ( they won't be able to fully trust anybody  , inside or out of their cliche )  , and TRUST is the weapon they need most


----------



## mullokintyre (9 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Here is a chart showing the jump in gold price in the 1970's, before deregulation from memory they could only sell it to the RBA for around $50 when on the open market it was around $250/oz.
> If there is a massive crisis and gold becomes the only valuable asset, the Govt would just re regulate it IMO.
> 
> View attachment 141333



The government can regulate any asset class if it can get away with it.
Housing, digital currency, gold, fine art treasures, you name it they could regulate it away Or put a tax /surcharge on it. You only have to look at the grand theft performed by the ATO in treating all gold refiners as GST dodgers.
nothing can escape the govt if it puts its mind to it and the compliant masses let them get away with it.
mick


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## wayneL (9 May 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> The government can regulate any asset class if it can get away with it....
> and the compliant masses let them get away with it.
> mick




This is what I find so bitterly disappointing about we plebeians, as a group. We let them get away with murder, because they have made sure we have too much to lose.


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## divs4ever (9 May 2022)

are they ??

sometimes the plebs , just shift quietly and slowly


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## wayneL (9 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> are they ??
> 
> sometimes the plebs , just shift quietly and slowly



I'm pretty pessimistic currently, but we shall see what happens in this election.

No matter how much my in group tells me how much they hate both Liberal and Labor, and how much I explain the preferential voting system that we have, they don't seem to be able to break out of that binary choice.


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## divs4ever (9 May 2022)

the old media mind-trick  , but i live in hope  ( or horror  if peace becomes impractical )


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## wayneL (9 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the old media mind-trick  , but i live in hope  ( or horror  if peace becomes impractical )



Both Mrs and I have decided which Hill(s) we will die on... literally.

We hope to live out our dotage with a few nags, quendas, honey eaters and the blue wrens etc that we share our place with, growing veggies, and chooks.

But we will seriously die happy if we die in the defense of freedom.


----------



## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

so , will 7000 hold today  ( for the XJO )

if the XJO closes below 7000 , it runs the risk of becoming the new resistance ( ceiling ) 

 will need to stay below 7000 for  a few days , but making a new record high look less likely in the near term


----------



## waterbottle (10 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so , will 7000 hold today  ( for the XJO )
> 
> if the XJO closes below 7000 , it runs the risk of becoming the new resistance ( ceiling )
> 
> will need to stay below 7000 for  a few days , but making a new record high look less likely in the near term



Probably not. 

US markets achieving a few days of - 5% drops... Everything is falling really, the turn around has been rapid


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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

well a lot of stuff ( but not all ) is still over-valued  , and now inflation is thought to be rising  , those counting on div. returns  are going to want a bigger bang for their buck 

 and if Australia starts shedding jobs  .. there goes that super-fund investment momentum ( and SOME funds LOVE to short-sell or at least lend shares to short-sellers )

 cheers


----------



## eskys (10 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so , will 7000 hold today  ( for the XJO )
> 
> if the XJO closes below 7000 , it runs the risk of becoming the new resistance ( ceiling )
> 
> will need to stay below 7000 for  a few days , but making a new record high look less likely in the near term



Will need to drop 120 to reach 7000. SPI currently down 99. SP 500 broke 4000 last night


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 May 2022)

ASX futures down 99 points or 1.4 per cent to 7003


AUD -1.8% to 69.50 US cents    
Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -8.3% to $US31,695.11    
On Wall St: Dow -2% ; S&P 500 -3.2% ; Nasdaq -4.3%    
In Europe: Stoxx 50 -2.8% FTSE -2.3% CAC -2.8% DAX -2.2%    
Spot gold -1.4% to $US1858.46 an ounce       
Brent crude -5.9% to $US106.19 a barrel    
US oil -5.5% to $US103.28 a barrel    
Iron ore -5.5% to $US131.35 a tonne    
2 year yield: US 2.59% ; Australia 2.72%    
5 year yield: US 2.95% ; Australia 3.24%    
10 year yield: US 3.03% ; Australia 3.56% ; Germany 1.09%


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## wayneL (10 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> well a lot of stuff ( but not all ) is still over-valued  , and now inflation is thought to be rising  , those counting on div. returns  are going to want a bigger bang for their buck
> 
> and if Australia starts shedding jobs  .. there goes that super-fund investment momentum ( and SOME funds LOVE to short-sell or at least lend shares to short-sellers )
> 
> cheers



I don't think this is it... YET.

But I do maintain my earlier thesis that IT will be this year.

Perhaps the traditional October crash?


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## Dona Ferentes (10 May 2022)

I had my ' _capitulation moment _ yesterday.   . You know the one when it's "sell everything or start to look to buy?" . In the end I sat it out


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## eskys (10 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I had my ' _capitulation moment _ yesterday.   . You know the one when it's "sell everything or start to look to buy?" . In the end I sat it out



I should have just sold out of all three portfolios. Got out of 2, weeks ago with the jitters (left the Cap Notes intact) The third plane is now too close to the ground for me to eject, i'll probably hit the ground dead if the plane decides to ascend from here. (thinking along the lines of blue chips are ok, they pay a dividend, is a massive mistake investors make in bad times, my opinion only of course, not criticising anyone) I'm down 6k in that small portfolio. Very thankful got out of company's account. Had I not, I would have gotten an earache!  Good luck everyone, we need it.


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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I had my ' _capitulation moment _ yesterday.   . You know the one when it's "sell everything or start to look to buy?" . In the end I sat it out



 i did SOME buying  , but still have some cash left 

 good luck


----------



## Rabbithop (10 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> well a lot of stuff ( but not all ) is still over-valued  , and now inflation is thought to be rising  , those counting on div. returns  are going to want a bigger bang for their buck
> 
> and if Australia starts shedding jobs  .. there goes that super-fund investment momentum ( and SOME funds LOVE to short-sell or at least lend shares to short-sellers )
> 
> cheers



What a world we live in.


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## Rabbithop (10 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> I don't think this is it... YET.
> 
> But I do maintain my earlier thesis that IT will be this year.
> 
> Perhaps the traditional October crash?



It's May now, October is 5 months away. You could be right. Bumpy rides in the  wide Ocean.


----------



## Rabbithop (10 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i did SOME buying  , but still have some cash left
> 
> good luck



Same as you.. spend some of my pot and holding the rest for striking.


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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> What a world we live in.



AND it is the land of opportunity   ( you just need to avoid the traps)

 XJO is currently 6973.9


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## eskys (10 May 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> It's May now, October is 5 months away. You could be right. Bumpy rides in the  wide Ocean.



Is the world flat, rabbithop? Will we fall over the edge riding bumpy waters?


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## Rabbithop (10 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Is the world flat, rabbithop? Will we fall over the edge riding bumpy waters?



Wouldn't know the answer, is the World Flat or Round. 
I am just afraid of drowning to death, no swimming skill. 
Was always afraid of ridding on a small boat until my Alaska experienced on a huge Cruising ship..enjoying my warm cuppa n standing on the balcony savoring God's Creation. All worries disappeared. 
My conclusion ...still afraid of falling into the Deep vast Ocean. Thank Goodness, I am standing on a huge cruiser so sit tight n go with the rocking.


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## eskys (10 May 2022)

Oops, sorry, rabbithop, I didn't know you're in fact cruising. No, the world is round, you have a great time.....no overboard, underwater, etc......safe as cash in the bank, happy holidays!


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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Wouldn't know the answer, is the World Flat or Round.
> I am just afraid of drowning to death, no swimming skill.
> Was always afraid of ridding on a small boat until my Alaska experienced on a huge Cruising ship..enjoying my warm cuppa n standing on the balcony savoring God's Creation. All worries disappeared.
> My conclusion ...still afraid of falling into the Deep vast Ocean. Thank Goodness, I am standing on a huge cruiser so sit tight n go with the rocking.



 well .. Russia doesn't want Alaska back ( they sold it to the US over 100 years ago )  you might be in the safest place on Earth


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (16 May 2022)

Futures just turned an hour ago.


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## eskys (16 May 2022)

Thank you, Mohammed. I noticed that too and VIX is up a tad


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (16 May 2022)

Global Futures, currencies, Oil all turned after 11am. Haven't got proper News feed on phone so don't know why yet.


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## eskys (16 May 2022)

Could it be this, Mohammed? If you have any news, would be grateful if you can share it here, thank you. By the way, welcome to the forum

Data on China's economy fall short of Bloomberg consensus. Industrial production -2.9% YoY (survey: +0.5%), retail sales YoY -11.1% (survey: -6.6%), property investment -2.7% (survey: -1.5%).


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (16 May 2022)

And it doesn't get any better:

EU Economic forecast out tonight.
GB and EU Employment etc figures out Tuesday.
US Retail Sales and Building Permits, GB Inflation out Wednesday.
 And on it goes. A host of dominos possibly.


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## divs4ever (16 May 2022)

am still looking for increased India exposure   , those lunatics in the EU ( and UK ) have  managed to make their area seem more risky than PNG or Africa 

 am now INCREDIBLY  happy i missed my target price on URW   back  near the take-over


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (16 May 2022)

Revision of Wesfarmers earnings forecast. How many more revisions of ASX 200 company's earnings to come? More Canaries?


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## divs4ever (16 May 2022)

a very difficult climate as far as i can tell  , quite different from politician/economist's  narratives 

 and sadly ( or gleefully if a chaos buyer ) i think there is much more coming  , if WES can sell more fertilizer and home-improvement stuff  it should survive comfortably ( but Office-Works might take a hit )


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

This Stagflation situation is a tad annoying. Obviously the Bears have it over the Bulls atm but not enough for me to go Short against the ASX (again). All this money saved up during Lockdowns and people getting ahead of their Mortgages may have ruined what would otherwise have been a good "Bear run".


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

Australia New Home Sales Fall 1.2% MoM in April
Aussie Weakens to Near 2-Year Low
Australia Private House Approvals Down 3% MoM
Australia Building Permits Drop 18.5% MoM
Australia Consumer Mood Plunges in May
Australia Retail Sales Grow for 3rd Month
Australia Business Mood Softens
Australia Flags More Rate Hikes
Australia Services Sector Expands for 5th Month.

RBA minutes out at 11.30am. Maybe that'll spark some action for the momentum Traders.


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

"...  The minutes say the significant rise in inflation had been largely the result of global factors, which were likely to have a more temporary effect.

"(But) the flow of information on inflation and wages over the preceding month had been consistent with more persistent inflationary pressures arising from limited spare capacity in the domestic economy," the minutes say. ... 

At this stage, economists are expecting a further 0.25 percentage point increase in the cash rate at the RBA's June board meeting.

However, a bigger increase may be seen if Wednesday's wages data for the March quarter proves stronger than forecast.

Whatever the case, economists expect the cash rate could reach around 1.5 per cent by early 2023 ..."









						RBA saw risk of waiting to hike cash rate
					

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May board meeting show there was a concern among board members of waiting to raise the cash rate.




					7news.com.au


----------



## waterbottle (17 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> "...  The minutes say the significant rise in inflation had been largely the result of global factors, which were likely to have a more temporary effect.
> 
> "(But) the flow of information on inflation and wages over the preceding month had been consistent with more persistent inflationary pressures arising from limited spare capacity in the domestic economy," the minutes say. ...
> 
> ...




Only 1.5%, not terrible not great


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

As a person with a Business degree, but not Economics, I'm very interested in the phrase "arising from limited spare capacity in the domestic economy".
This aids forward projection I assume, something I'm working on.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Only 1.5%, not terrible not great
> 
> 
> View attachment 141783



The scare mongers were saying up to 3%. I had thought around 2%. But 1.5% is alot better.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

GDP forecast to grow by 4.25% in 2022, by 2% in 2023.

Still a "resilient" economy.


----------



## qldfrog (17 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> GDP forecast to grow by 4.25% in 2022, by 2% in 2023.
> 
> Still a "resilient" economy.



If inflation is at 5or 8 %,and gdp grows by 4%..what does it says on your economy....?
Unless mistaken, gdp is not inflation corrected...


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> If inflation is at 5or 8 %,and gdp grows by 4%..what does it says on your economy....?
> Unless mistaken, gdp is not inflation corrected...



I'm not an Economist, but it sounds like more of what we are seeing now, our Economy still pushing strongly into the Inflation "headwinds". Demand still strong. Until Demand faulters our Economy should remain "resilient". Lack of Demand drives recessionary forces in the short term I believe - Keynesian economics.


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## divs4ever (17 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> The scare mongers were saying up to 3%. I had thought around 2%. But 1.5% is alot better.



i THOUGHT i saw a prediction of 2.5% , made by the RBA  ( to occur by December 2022 ) shortly after the recent increase

 BUT maybe the global economy will unravel by then  and it will be a bear's Christmas


----------



## divs4ever (17 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> If inflation is at 5or 8 %,and gdp grows by 4%..what does it says on your economy....?
> Unless mistaken, gdp is not inflation corrected...



even GDP is not what it used to be  ( just like CPI ,  , unemployment rates  , etc etc )

 as someone  once said ' there are lies , damn lies  and statistics '

 we seem to be solidly in that world


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

"household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, *an upswing in business investment is underway*"


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## divs4ever (17 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> "household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, *an upswing in business investment is underway*"



 is that really true ??

 ( i know it is a quote  from an article  )

 but not from what i an seeing  unless the measurement is taken from the worst of the virus reactions  ( and excluding the much better times before 2020 )


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> is that really true ??
> 
> ( i know it is a quote  from an article  )
> 
> but not from what i an seeing  unless the measurement is taken from the worst of the virus reactions  ( and excluding the much better times before 2020 )



That's why I put it in bold. That's generally a good marker.

 I'm not sold though.


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## divs4ever (17 May 2022)

i don't travel around as much as i used to  , and i MIGHT be  moving  around in a 'poverty trap ' ( as fringe suburbs  can be ) ( yes there are million dollar homes here , at least that is what they are selling for  , but jobs aren't so easy to keep  for some )

 so i am not seeing this 'miraculous V shape '  recovery  ,  now i would  agree with a K shape  ( selected winners  but not wide-spread ) recovery


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

Yep, Composite Purchasing Managers Index is up. Plant Machinery Capital expenditure is up from -4 to -0.1 lol etc etc
But alot of the other important figures are down ie Small Business sentiment 7 down from 14, and on it goes.

Like the RBA is trying to talk confidence up. Shhhh


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (17 May 2022)

The Aus Employment numbers are out tomorrow. They are strong already. if they exceed expectations the Market may drop due to strong employment numbers encouraging the RBA to lift Interest Rates faster. If they fall below expectations the Market may drop too, due to Recessionary fears.

Can't win going Long lol.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (18 May 2022)

I'd like to retract my previous comment about going Long today, after News and the US rally overnight.
Still 10.30am Aus employment numbers start dropping, followed by China house prices (?) Then after our Bell the GB Inflation numbers drop which caused anxiety in the Markets last week.


----------



## divs4ever (18 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> I'd like to retract my previous comment about going Long today, after News and the US rally overnight.
> Still 10.30am Aus employment numbers start dropping, followed by China house prices (?) Then after our Bell the GB Inflation numbers drop which caused anxiety in the Markets last week.



 the XJO ( top 200 ) is up 77 points  currently 

 looks like we are in BAD news  is good news cycle again ( the economy is so bad official rates are less likely to rise  and some chance of more QE , at least in the traders' minds )

 so let's NOT retract your earlier prediction  , but just look in wonder at the Bizarro world we are in 

 cheers


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (18 May 2022)

ASX 200 up a percent almost, then 10.30am first numbers dropped and it retreated:

Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity​This report examines movements in the leading indicator of economic activity in Australia. It is designed to anticipate and identify turning points in the economy.

The Index is a summary measure and includes information from:


Local financial, housing and labour markets
Consumer expectations about activity and unemployment, and
International economic activity.
*Down from 0.3% to -0.2%*


Employment numbers 11.30am


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (18 May 2022)

*AUD
Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q1)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.5% Prev.: 2.3%

AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
Act: 0.7% Cons: 0.8% Prev.: *_*0.7%*_

China House Prices (YoY) (Apr)
Act: _0.7%_ Cons:  Prev.: _1.5%_

Enough for the RBA to go further than .25 next Meeting? Let's see what Mr Market says.


----------



## divs4ever (18 May 2022)

they are firmly caught between a rock and a hard place 

 arguably 0.25% ( increase ) is not enough , but in the mid-term  too much 
 AND they did it to themselves  ( as well as the fall-out of the rise during an election campaign if the LNP wins the election  , especially if they have to resort to a coalition of several independents  to retain power )


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (18 May 2022)

If Inflation is 5.1% and wage growth is 2.4% RBA won't go hard you'd think?
But Market rules Daniel Son!


----------



## divs4ever (18 May 2022)

the problem is debt levels in the system 

 given all the ways  you can get credit now ( compared to the 1970s )

 how do you calculate the debt levels  ( waves of forced sellers  would quickly unravel the economy ) in this climate of multiple bubbles 

 and ACTUAL inflation is liable to be at least double the official  rate


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (18 May 2022)

Clear Sailing till the GB Inflation figures overnight I assume!


----------



## divs4ever (18 May 2022)

which should be positively horrible  ( and manipulated  , like that of several other nations )

 however since the XJO couldn't  be suppressed under 7000 for long  , i guess i need a plan for new record highs ( just in case )


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (18 May 2022)

ASX200 finished at 7,182.70 up .99%
Futures not doing much. The Pound maybe sliding already.

More Aus Employment figures tomorrow 11.30am


----------



## qldfrog (19 May 2022)

Well US markets falling hard,oil commodities down even BTC near 29k...
Not much in green there in my portfolio...will not be good on the ASX today


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

am wondering if 7000 ( for the XJO ) can hold for today 

 today could get REALLY interesting  depending on where the trailing stops are 

 take care 

 ( can i get that EVN order ?? , it isn't that far for the closing price )


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> If Inflation is 5.1% and wage growth is 2.4% RBA won't go hard you'd think?
> But Market rules Daniel Son!



 the market rules only until they hit 'the circuit-breaker ' 

 ( remember they are addicted to interventions these day )


----------



## ducati916 (19 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the problem is debt levels in the system
> 
> given all the ways  you can get credit now ( compared to the 1970s )
> 
> ...




And why is debt an issue?

From a 'trading' perspective only...I will ignore the economic issues.

Because the level of debt is a leveraged number on the base money supply, M2, which means in an unravel, there is not enough cash to settle the debt.

This would be bad, but it is compounded by the leveraging of that debt by derivatives. $1.4Quadrillion. Most of which is in the form of SWAPS. These are not traded on any exchange and therefore have no margin attached to them and are totally opaque. This magnifies the issues as counter-parties cannot quickly or easily be identified, exacerbating a credit event.

Again, the issue is now an appalling lack of dollars to settle in cash, losing bets.

Why do you think the USD is near highs? There is a tremendous demand for dollars to settle losing bets currently.

This leads directly to a liquidity event.

When the liquidity event hits...the Fed and other Central Banks are (i) behind the curve again and (ii) will require an even larger amount of liquidity to be created in an attempt to stem the bleeding out of market players.

So large in fact that the USD runs a true risk of hyper-inflating to destruction. The liquidity event I believe will be triggered in the Euro. The ECB cannot recapitalise its Balance Sheet in the same was as the Fed and BoJ. As such, a credit event in any one of a number of basket case economies can create that liquidity event which will spread faster than covid across all bourses.

Central banks (Fed) cannot raise the FFR to levels necessary to combat inflation. The FFR would need to be 10%. Currently it is 0.5%

The US markets will bottom out somewhere between 80% and 90% loss. The choice is now a death spiral deflation or a hyper-inflation. Both have less than desirable outcomes.




jog on
duc


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

@ducati916 an 80-90% loss? Surely measures have been and will be implemented to prevent that?

Any chance of a "New Bear Market" thread please.


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> And why is debt an issue?
> 
> From a 'trading' perspective only...I will ignore the economic issues.
> 
> ...



 since you are 'trading ' ( trying to make a regular income from portfolio movements ) i would assume your platform  , would try to tempt you with a margin loan  ( my trader buddy has one for sure )

 over the last 12 years  , i have observed several exciting events  when  the lender ( a BIG bank ) got nervous and started issuing margin calls  , the epic one was during a road trip ( so patchy mobile signal )  when the message came through said buddy  had to find a bank branch ( only ONE in Sydney  for that regional bank )  and send  funds to the account  of the trading platform 

 turns out the buddy was only 20% into buffer at the time  , and the bank had over-reacted 

 little events like that might make the market move a little more than usual


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## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> @ducati916 an 80-90% loss? Surely measures have been and will be implemented to prevent that?
> 
> Any chance of a "New Bear Market" thread please.



 MAYBE .. circuit-breakers have failed before , and once you try catch-up options to remedy vanish very quickly


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

So the game plan for today is we get in early or wait for the Unemployment numbers to come out at 11.30am which will be good and may temporarily halt the blood flow, before the arteries reopen?

My only question isn't how, it's how much!


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

i NORMALLY  have my orders in early  hoping for a snap down ( and not followed  by a plummet )

 a fair chance stop-losses will be tripped  , but with the recent rally a smaller chance of blanket margin calls 

 but those are just my guesses 

 by 11.30 am i will be delighted or bored


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 May 2022)

Its a market, like any other. 

You have to accept the good with the bad. 

At least many Mickey Mouse companies with dodgy directors and balance sheets will be shown up for what they are.

I'm looking forward to some mayhem. 

gg


----------



## wayneL (19 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> And why is debt an issue?
> 
> From a 'trading' perspective only...I will ignore the economic issues.
> 
> ...



Exactly. This is what the average Prole doesn't understand about their stock market investments. 

They keep looking at equity fundamentals, scratch their heads and wonder what the hell is happening. Whereas they really should be learning about the debt market and keeping a close eye on that.

I'm certainly no expert, but know enough to listen to who I think are the right folks in that regard. 

Out there mixing it with plebeians, almost nobody (and remember most of my clients are well heeled) has a clue what a bond is, nevermind the size of that market or how it affects everything.

When that blows up, people will be shocked to their core.


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## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> And why is debt an issue?
> 
> From a 'trading' perspective only...I will ignore the economic issues.
> 
> ...



The implications of either of the outcomes you mentioned would mean complete collapse of modern society. 
I doubt that this would ever be allowed to willingly happen. 
What will probably happen is another can-kicking venture.


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> The implications of either of the outcomes you mentioned would mean complete collapse of modern society.
> I doubt that this would ever be allowed to willingly happen.
> What will probably happen is another can-kicking venture.



 sorry i disagree , it seems ALL options are on the table no matter how irrational they seem 

 once trust is gone  , so is the currency and the economy


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## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> sorry i disagree , it seems ALL options are on the table no matter how irrational they seem
> 
> once trust is gone  , so is the currency and the economy




If the economy is gone then so is society and that is what you should be betting on. No point posting on an investment forum, start hoarding cans of food and shotgun shells.
If there is no economy, then there are no goods and services. There is no incentive to produce. Allowing such a thing to happen would obviously harm many more people globally than whatever 'fault' is trying to be corrected. IMO, it will never get to that stage, and if it does, who cares because money would be meaningless anyway. 
The stimulus and behind-the-door dealings aka bear sterns sold on a sunday, during the GFC were unprecedented because we were staring down the barrel of complete financial collapse. Obama sucked it up and put it on the taxpayer docket realising that allowing such a system to fail would have broader implications than increasing US debt.


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## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> If the economy is gone then so is society and that is what you should be betting on. No point posting on an investment forum, start hoarding cans of food and shotgun shells.
> If there is no economy, then there are no goods and services.



 your money is guaranteed to erode in a term deposit 

 TINA ( There Is No Alternative )  from income gains ( and possible capital gains )

 if it all implodes  it doesn't matter EVERYBODY will be equally poor soon  enough ( thieves and looters will make sure of that )

 look at Sri Lanka , even the army can't protect politicians houses and cars


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

Go short they said.

6 figure sum minus brokerage. Not quite @Garpal Gumnut 's monthly expense account, but close hopefully.


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

Looking at the XJO it hasn't done a lot since gapping up at the Open. ROC and ADX still indicating Sell ( thank you @Skate ), but this could mean it'll recover abit after the Aus Employment figures come out.
Considering loading up again. Maybe I need a slap.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

Yep recovering.


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

AUD
Employment Change (Apr)

Act: 4.0K Cons: 30.0K Prev.: 17.9K

AUD
Full Employment Change (Apr)

Act: 92.4K Cons:  Prev.: 20.5K

AUD
Participation Rate (Apr)

Act: 66.3% Cons: 66.4% Prev.: 66.4%

AUD
Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Act: 3.9% Cons: 3.9% Prev.: 4.0%

Hmm. Not a lot there I assume.


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## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> AUD
> Employment Change (Apr)
> 
> Act: 4.0K Cons: 30.0K Prev.: 17.9K
> ...




Peaking?
Anyone have stat's on immigration?


----------



## JohnDe (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Peaking?
> Anyone have stat's on immigration?






> Since borders reopened November 2021, over 920,000 temporary visa holders have arrived in Australia, including 442,100 visitors, 168,000 students and 90,300 temporary skilled visas.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2022-our-borders-are-closed-our-borders-are-closed-anthony-albaneses-latest-gaffe/news-story/e3310efe72e5ca365ddff09d755034ab


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## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

Nice, need to see trend data. 
I suspect as immigrantion increases we will see an increase in unemployment...


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Nice, need to see trend data.
> I suspect as immigrantion increases we will see an increase in unemployment...



More Immigration more Consumers better numbers.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 May 2022)

I generally find in market crashes that not having any holdings with anyone called Hamish connected is generally useful in conserving capital. 

A crude measurement, but well tested.  

gg


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## ducati916 (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> The implications of either of the outcomes you mentioned would mean complete collapse of modern society.
> I doubt that this would ever be allowed to willingly happen.
> What will probably happen is another can-kicking venture.




The total collapse of society will not happen, but it will come pretty close...for the following reasons.

The level of derivatives to the debt, leveraged to the base money supply is now many magnitudes higher than the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crisis.

The 2 bailouts totalled some +/- $9T on just the Fed's Balance Sheet. Add in the Boj, ECB, PBOC and all the tinpots to get an estimate of multiplying that by a factor of 'X' if the world's debt went into a death spiral (deflation), which it currently is.

So to 'bail out' the system the CBs would need to go to....lets use the Fed alone, some $30T+
We already have inflation measured by a somewhat suspect CPI at 8.5%
Add another bailout and there is a very good chance that the USD will hyper-inflate. If USD dies, all other fiats die alongside.

Only at this point, to retain power, will governments and international institutions, try to save the USD and by extension fiat.

The USD would likely be bailed out by the IMF and SDRs. If that worked (the SDR is simply another fiat) then we stabilise. If it fails then the only way forward is to back the USD with gold. All central banks hold gold in varying quantities.

The revaluation of all fiats to gold would probably require $50Koz gold +/-. In that process silver will also revalue as a monetary metal (poor man's gold) rather than as an industrial commodity. We'll likely see a ratio of 10:1 at some point.

The pain until we got to that point would be immense. It would be the 1930's or worse again.

Stocks with hard assets on the balance sheet, land factories, inventories (that were demanded) etc would survive. Stuff with balance sheets measured in 'eyeballs' or whatever will simply go to zero. A number of US stocks are already down 80% from their highs. It will spread to far more before this disaster is over.

The crypto crowd argue that BTC et al will mimic or outperform gold. To date, that is not the case. It may change.

jog on
duc


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## eskys (19 May 2022)

Premarket is now green


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Premarket is now green



Don't say that!


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Premarket is now green



Tonight the U.S. initial Jobless numbers are out. Tomorrow the existing Home Sales (US) and Leading Index. Those shouldn't be good I assume, particularly for Yanks still shell shocked from the Sub prime disaster. Add to that Poms fighting over Food shortages (sadly) and Im confident Red is the colour of choice.


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## Garpal Gumnut (19 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> The total collapse of society will not happen, but it will come pretty close...for the following reasons.
> 
> The level of derivatives to the debt, leveraged to the base money supply is now many magnitudes higher than the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crisis.
> 
> ...





Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Tonight the U.S. initial Jobless numbers are out. Tomorrow the existing Home Sales (US) and Leading Index. Those shouldn't be good I assume, particularly for Yanks still shell shocked from the Sub prime disaster. Add to that Poms fighting over Food shortages (sadly) and Im confident Red is the colour of choice.



While what you all say is probably correct in each metric individually, one cannot extrapolate that to the market. 

You forget one important facet of market behaviour which is to quote that great legal mind, Dennis Denuto,...

The Vibe. 

I've been through a number of crashes and there was no obvious warning, and that was before the Governments and Central Banks had the safety of the markets in mind as well as inflation, debt and all the aforementioned. Mainly because of Super and Pension funds being the major investors in the market.

I may be wrong. 

Then again, I may be correct, but there are too many balls in the air at the moment to decide on the mood which ultimately decides market direction. 

gg


----------



## eskys (19 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Tonight the U.S. initial Jobless numbers are out. Tomorrow the existing Home Sales (US) and Leading Index. Those shouldn't be good I assume, particularly for Yanks still shell shocked from the Sub prime disaster. Add to that Poms fighting over Food shortages (sadly) and Im confident Red is the colour of choice.



You're probably right.......I like seeing green on this screen, but looks faint


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> While what you all say is probably correct in each metric individually, one cannot extrapolate that to the market.
> 
> You forget one important facet of market behaviour which is to quote that great legal mind, Dennis Denuto,...
> 
> ...



Thanks. Not to mention the next session after a big drop there's usually a buy up.

Still, eventually the chickens SHOULD come home to Roost. If not can I get a Job as your Driver on Sven's days off?


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## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Tonight the U.S. initial Jobless numbers are out. Tomorrow the existing Home Sales (US) and Leading Index. Those shouldn't be good I assume, particularly for Yanks still shell shocked from the Sub prime disaster. Add to that Poms fighting over Food shortages (sadly) and Im confident Red is the colour of choice.



 BAD news hints QT is further away  ( and less aggressive rate rises , likely )   , so YES this looks great to the highly leveraged 

 ( i am NOT highly leveraged  so all this looks crazy dangerous to me  , but i am investing up to $10,000 a time and the lunatics are throwing millions in other peoples money ( the client's and the bank's )


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## Garpal Gumnut (19 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Thanks. Not to mention the next session after a big drop there's usually a buy up.
> 
> Still, eventually the chickens SHOULD come home to Roost. If not can I get a Job as your Driver on Sven's days off?



Not to distract from the thread, but my driver's name is Švejk, he is a Checko. I inherited him from a very good book which is a primer for the absurdity of life called "The Fate of the Good Soldier Švejk during the World War," by Jaroslev Hašek.

A good humorous read for anyone in the markets as to all that can go wrong or right, if you are Švejk.

gg


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## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> The total collapse of society will not happen, but it will come pretty close...for the following reasons.
> 
> The level of derivatives to the debt, leveraged to the base money supply is now many magnitudes higher than the 2008 crisis and the 2020 crisis.
> 
> ...




What you've described is a complete collapse of modern society.
I don't see how a return to the gold-standard can be considered beneficial to society, when money supply would be restricted to some arbitrary asset, that frankly, is only valuable for historical reasons. 
Why not sea shells? Why even pay back the debt? 
A debt-free society is a fantasy.


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> What you've described is a complete collapse of modern society.
> I don't see how a return to the gold-standard can be considered beneficial to society, when money supply would be restricted to some arbitrary asset, that frankly, is only valuable for historical reasons.
> Why not sea shells? Why even pay back the debt?
> A debt-free society is a fantasy.



 yes  a complete collapse IS possible  , because the WEF are hoping to bring it down  , to a wreck so they can rebuild it to their delusions 

 if there is any serious rebellion ( say including military  or police contingents  ) Mad Max 2  would look like a comparative paradise 

 oh ! on the MAIN currency  , will be food , water , and fuel ( to heat with , rather than for transport )

 **  Why even pay back the debt? ***  
several deeply indebted nations have no intention of repaying that debt , they will simply bury the surviving tax payers under it ( already )


----------



## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

This discussion reminds me of Marc Faber circa 2008


----------



## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

but will Marc be right or has he been a closet optimist


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## eskys (19 May 2022)

Futures gone red again


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

ASX 200 finished at 7065, 1.65% down.

Looking at a few of my incoherent scribblings: a Supply shock followed by an easing of Demand, Consumer and Business Confidence. ASX200 at high P/E ratio, Inverted Yield Curve. 200dma breached for over 5 consecutive days, inflation, IRs and Oil prices a drag on Businesses. Building Permits and Housing going south. Utilities going south.

3 of the top 5 economies (USA. China, GB) a drag on Aus.


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## waterbottle (19 May 2022)

Hmmmm nah, I think we will be ok

https://blogs.imf.org/2022/05/05/lo...es-world-from-1970s-style-crude-shock/#post/0


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## qldfrog (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Hmmmm nah, I think we will be ok
> 
> https://blogs.imf.org/2022/05/05/lo...es-world-from-1970s-style-crude-shock/#post/0
> 
> View attachment 141876



But world population 1970s was below 4 billions ,so half of today.
Worse: with progress number of motor vehicles has exploded...








						World Automobile Production and Fleet, 1965-2019 | The Geography of Transport Systems
					






					transportgeography.org
				



So more than 3 times as many
Luckily we get more with same amount of oil as you pointed out, but we are basically back to a similar situation to 1974 except that we are not the only consumers with China and India key players, and a long history of the west mishandling oil producers so no love lost there in arab countries..as in the 70s or Venezuela /Russia. 
If we just have a 1974 economic shock, we will be lucky in my opinion


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (19 May 2022)

If @ducati916 is correct, I think we'll all be lucky to get our Money back, long short or indifferent.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Hmmmm nah, I think we will be ok



A difference is that the 1970's oil shock was just that, oil.

Versus the 2020's energy shock which is centred primarily around gas and then coal, with the oil price increase being comparatively minor.

Present LNG netback price is $38.09 whereas 12 months ago it was $7.64 so an increase of almost 400 over 12 months. Over two years it's up 998%

Coal price year on year is up 310% and over two years it's up 700%.

Crude oil is up a comparatively trivial 64% over 12 months or 207% over two years.

Wholesale electricity price, average all Australian NEM states (all states except WA and NT): May 2022 to date = $445.39 / MWh, up 315% on May 2021 ($107.33) and up 1075% on May 2020 ($37.90).

Energy price inflation is widespread although oil's far less affected than other fuels.

For reference, global energy by source as follows. Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy (pretty much the "bible" of energy statistics). Data is 2019 intentionally to avoid temporary pandemic effects.

Oil = 33.1%
Coal = 27.0%
Gas = 24.3%
Hydro = 6.4%
Nuclear = 4.3%
Wind = 2.2%
Solar = 1.1%
Biofuels = 0.7%
Other = 0.9%


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## divs4ever (19 May 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> A difference is that the 1970's oil shock was just that, oil.
> 
> Versus the 2020's energy shock which is centred primarily around gas and then coal, with the oil price increase being comparatively minor.
> 
> ...



 the oil  price is being obviously manipulated ( as is oil production  ) while gas and coal  prices seem to be closer to free-market prices ( well as close as it can be when you have several currency manipulators operating )

  so how do we assess  the oil price when production has been militarily crushed , and heavily sanctioned  and bizarrely , by some of the biggest oil importers 

 ... all i can say is Norway had better watch it's ass ( there will be greedy , desperate thugs after it soon ), maybe it should start signing  security pacts with Moscow  or at least OPEC


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

The S&P 500 slightly in the Red but not enough to effect our Market yet. Our ASX 200 is like a Cockroach, it'll "drift up" unless  you absolutely smash it.
There will be more bad news from the US tomorrow night I'd say, but by Monday Aussies will have forgotten it.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

US Existing Home Sales (Apr)
Act: _5.61M_  Cons: _5.65M_ . Prev.: _5.75M_ 

US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
Act: _-2.4%_ Cons:  Prev.: _-3.0%_ 

US Leading Index (MoM) (Apr)
Act: _-0.3%_ Cons: _0.3%_ Prev.: _0.1%_ 

A bit there for the Pessimists.


----------



## qldfrog (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> The S&P 500 slightly in the Red but not enough to effect our Market yet. Our ASX 200 is like a Cockroach, it'll "drift up" unless  you absolutely smash it.
> There will be more bad news from the US tomorrow night I'd say, but by Monday Aussies will have forgotten it.



Yes it's absolutely unbelievable for anyone who has travelled the level of complacency in this country.
As if being on an island was excluding us from the world around.
We saw it on covid and it did not act as a lesson.anyeay,you are right and come Monday the asx will surge ..just because..
I have to say having a small market and 10% of all local salaries forced to buy  there is indeed creating an out of this world context.
Play with currency and inflation enough and it could go forever..until we need 1 million pacific pesos to buy a made in China can of bean...


----------



## ducati916 (20 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> 1. What you've described is a complete collapse of modern society.
> 2. I don't see how a return to the gold-standard can be considered beneficial to society, when money supply would be restricted to some arbitrary asset, that frankly, is only valuable for historical reasons.
> 3. Why not sea shells?






waterbottle said:


> 4. Why even pay back the debt?
> 5. A debt-free society is a fantasy.




1. Not a collapse, but certainly a restructuring.

2. It is beneficial to society because (a) the government can no longer inflate (steal) the money supply, thereby (b) limiting the size and power of government, (c) prevents currency wars and further debasement (inflation) of currencies to pursue mercantilist policies which can lead to hot wars, prevents a foreign government (US as primary reserve currency) from abusing world wide that position, essentially living off of other nations savings. Those are just your basic advantages. There are many others.

3. Because sea shells are not fungible, indestructible, divisible or shiny.

4. Because without repayment, no one would lend capital.

5. No one is talking about a debt free society.

jog on
duc


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> b) limiting the size and power of government,



Can't see any Government or Reserve Bank doing anything to limit their own power or ability to "pull the levers".


----------



## wayneL (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Can't see any Government or Reserve Bank doing anything to limit their own power or ability to "pull the levers".



It would certainly be extreme circumstances, but some third party(s) might not give them the choice.

It seems hard to envisage here, but other parts of the developed world are sufficiently troubled enough that such a situation *could emerge (even the US IMO).


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

NZD
Exports (Apr)
Act: _6.31B_ Cons:  Prev.: _6.48B_ 

NZD
Imports (Apr)
Act: _5.73B_ Cons:  Prev.: _7.06B_

NZD
Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr)
Act: _584M_ Cons:  Prev.: _-581M_ 

NZD
Trade Balance (YoY) (Apr)
Act: _-9,120M_ Cons:  Prev.: _-9,300M_ 

US Futures going Green. UK consumer confidence figures out 9am. They won't be good. Aus Election tomorrow might put our Market "on hold". (Might have to make my Short position a long term hold.)


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence (May)
Act: _-40_ Cons: _-39_ Prev.: _-38_

GB retail out after our Bell, they'll be abismall, but after our Bell.

Lets see if all these "poorish" numbers effect our ASX today.


----------



## eskys (20 May 2022)

I'm late to work, so will leave this here, not sure how accurate the indicative price is before open, good luck everyone.................https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/options-expiration-calendar


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Can't see any Government or Reserve Bank doing anything to limit their own power or ability to "pull the levers".



 they COULD do stuff , but since they are so far behind REAL inflation  , i doubt they will have a positive outcome on that action  , rising costs ( because several fees and charges are indexed to CPI  so rates are increased   boosting CPI  increases  but are still several percent behind REAL inflation )

 and i doubt the RBA has the courage to raise rates by more than 5%  in a year  in an attempt to catch up to real inflation  , BUT the US  is already trying a similar tactic let's watch what happens there as a possible guide ( you should probably bring popcorn and tissues  , it might get a little sad )


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

Hilarious, not. 1.04% up.

11am approaching the peak of the XJO and my financial pain and public humiliation hopefully. (for today).

If the AXVI is moving inversely at about half of the ASX 200's rise, that should indicate a high proportion of the buyers of the ASX200 are retail investors???


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> I'm late to work, so will leave this here, not sure how accurate the indicative price is before open, good luck everyone.................https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/options-expiration-calendar



 thanks  ,

 had a chuckle over the days in the week 

but the actual dates will be a big help 

 cheers


----------



## JohnDe (20 May 2022)

It certainly does look like a 'slow car crash'. 



> *Why a slow car crash is the worst kind for markets*
> 
> If, on the day a market is told that unemployment is the lowest it has been for 48 years and it _still_ falls 1.7 per cent then you have something to worry about.
> And remember we are talking about a market where inflation remains reasonable on a historic basis: Keep in mind 3.9 per cent might be the lowest unemployment rate since 1974, but back then the inflation rate was 15 per cent not 5 per cent.
> ...


----------



## qldfrog (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Hilarious, not. 1.04% up.
> 
> 11am approaching the peak of the XJO and my financial pain and public humiliation hopefully. (for today).
> 
> If the AXVI is moving inversely at about half of the ASX 200's rise, that should indicate a high proportion of the buyers of the ASX200 are retail investors???



Good time to buy put options


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Good time to buy put options



I shan't be buying anything except for two bottles of Red Wine tomorrow to drown my sorrows.

XJO peaked at about 1.25% up (hopefully) ... for today. I suspect it's gunna kick me so hard they'll be scraping me off the walls, before this little misadventure pays off.

US Futures very green.


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> I shan't be buying anything except for two bottles of Red Wine tomorrow to drown my sorrows.
> 
> XJO peaked at about 1.25% up (hopefully) ... for today. I suspect it's gunna kick me so hard they'll be scraping me off the walls, before this little misadventure pays off.
> 
> US Futures very green.



 don't count your losses until the after-market auction closes 

 good luck


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> don't count your losses until the after-market auction closes
> 
> good luck



That's actually a good point. 4pm the GB retail figures come out which should be horrible if a quarter of Poms are skipping Meals, combined with being a Friday, there might be a high sell off before 4.10pm Close.


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

well i was surprised to get two small ( buy ) orders  hit this morning  , so the rally is far from widespread


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> That's actually a good point. 4pm the GB retail figures come out which should be horrible if a quarter of Poms are skipping Meals, combined with being a Friday, there might be a high sell off before 4.10pm Close.



If I had to eat pom food I'd skip a few meals myself. 

gg


----------



## Porper (20 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If I had to eat pom food I'd skip a few meals myself.
> 
> gg



There's nothing wrong with Tripe & onions...with white bread to dip up the juices!!


----------



## eskys (20 May 2022)

Eat toad in a hole, wont make you croak, then followed with spotted diick for dessert....not bad


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

or Shepard's Pie  if they resist adding garlic 

 it's that 'fit-for-a-King'  stuff that makes me waste my wine or ale


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

So just to prove or not prove my incompetence, I am considering an Exit and Re-entry.
ASX 200 will keep rising at all time highs at 3.30pm on a Friday arvo no matter what the situation.


----------



## eskys (20 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> thanks  ,
> 
> had a chuckle over the days in the week
> 
> ...



Divs, actual dates are on the calendar.

 I wonder if anyone pays attention to option expiry  dates? The figures pre open can be off mark...do inexperienced punters get sucked in by the indicative pre open on option expiry dates? I thought it too good to be true for my two goldies bought yesterday


----------



## eskys (20 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> So just to prove or not prove my incompetence, I am considering an Exit and Re-entry.
> ASX 200 will keep rising at all time highs at 3.30pm on a Friday arvo no matter what the situation.



Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea



Thanks for that lol.


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea



 that assumes a MAJOR party is elected ( as the dominant force )

 what if an assortment  of independents and 'fringe' groups  are actually the majority ( as opposed to inconvenient coalition partners )


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> I'm late to work, so will leave this here, not sure how accurate the indicative price is before open, good luck everyone.................https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/options-expiration-calendar



May

SUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISUN12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

that   little hiccup  , but cheers  the site is very helpful


----------



## eskys (20 May 2022)

Not sure why it didn't open up properly divs........I'll see if I can find another site later tonight (for next month's expiry).

As for the election tomorrow, didn't think the minority groups will be elected as dominant. Simply didn't cross my mind


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea



No matter who wins in their electorate, you always end up with a politician.


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Not sure why it didn't open up properly divs........I'll see if I can find another site later tonight (for next month's expiry).
> 
> As for the election tomorrow, didn't think the minority groups will be elected as dominant. Simply didn't cross my mind



 the site worked fine for me  , the expiry dates  just didn't transfer to ASF  

 it isn't supposed to cross your mind the big media PLAN it that way  , in fact Kerry Packer  felt he had the power to change government and/or leaders  ( and another media mogul thinks exactly the same way  , but pretends to support the side with the most available viewers )

 i remember one council election when the pro ALP candidate joined with the pro-LNP candidate   when an independent  looked very strong  the public  suddenly realized ALP-LNP were two faces of the same coin  and INCREASED  the vote for the independent  , who proceeded to stay chairman  until the State Premier   changed shire boundaries ( eliminating that council completely  )  ,  about 10 years  of  overwhelming majority of the vote


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> No matter who wins in their electorate, you always end up with a politician.



but ( very rarely ) you get a person that understands their REAL job  ( Bob Katter Jr , and  Graeme Campbell  come to mind )





__





						Graeme Campbell (politician) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




 LOL

 somehow Graeme was 'far-right' despite having overwhelming Aboriginal support while representing the ALP AND afterwards

 when evicted by the ALP   his voted INCREASED


----------



## UMike (20 May 2022)

eskys said:


> Read somewhere yesterday, one or two liner which said, historically market goes up no matter which party wins the election. True or false, I've no idea



Yea.... Market hates uncertainty.

I haven't gone in yet as there is no obvious value out there plus if it is a hung parliament then there is confirmed uncertainty.
With so many postal and pre voting might take a while.


----------



## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

UMike said:


> Yea.... Market hates uncertainty.
> 
> I haven't gone in yet as there is no obvious value out there plus if it is a hung parliament then there is confirmed uncertainty.
> With so many postal and pre voting might take a while.



 there are tiny pockets of value BUT  they often lack liquidity ( or at least reliable liquidity )

 and a FEW businesses are almost immune from political intervention  ( or too low-profile  to be targeted )

 obviously with such companies , i am making small careful dabbles


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (20 May 2022)

Futures heavily in the Green, as they somewhat should be in my opinion. The opinion I've held since the last RBA meeting, but abandoned with my brain fart yesterday morning in going Short.
You live you learn.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (21 May 2022)

S&P500 futures were deep in Green last night before opening. Then S&P500 plummeted well over 2%. At 3am all the News outlets flashed "Bear Market confirmation". 3.30am the S&P500 came back like Lazarus to finish up even.

Made me think, if the U.S. does go into Recession it'll be around Xmas/New Year


----------



## qldfrog (21 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> S&P500 futures were deep in Green last night before opening. Then S&P500 plummeted well over 2%. At 3am all the News outlets flashed "Bear Market confirmation". 3.30am the S&P500 came back like Lazarus to finish up even.
> 
> Made me think, if the U.S. does go into Recession it'll be around Xmas/New Year



Yes a market acting like a religion indeed, built on beliefs and not on facts, with preachers, evils and even hell and paradise..a great analogy


----------



## Telamelo (21 May 2022)

https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/data-researcher-who-predicted-brexit-trump-2016-and-the-2019-miracle-has-predicted-who-win-the-2022-federal-election/news-story/aa5bd18d44b357e1f7dc5a3ad446159c
		


Interesting to note that our ASX market tends to do quite well post elections with only the odd exception here or there during these past few decades. Let's see how the week ahead pans out.

Just quietly, this federal election has cost us tax payer's about $500M - pity as am sure this money could have been put to better use improving our Healthcare for example or towards helping out all those recent helpless flood victims in QLD & NSW


----------



## gartley (21 May 2022)

Whilst the "everything bubble" has slowly been deflating downisde projection was now been reached on the 78W cycle.  We should start to see the begining of a multi week/month rally  soon. Interestingly the VIX has been basically sideways during the decline suggesting fear has not been there.


----------



## waterbottle (21 May 2022)

gartley said:


> Whilst the "everything bubble" has slowly been deflating downisde projection was now been reached on the 78W cycle.  We should start to see the begining of a multi week/month rally  soon. Interestingly the VIX has been basically sideways during the decline suggesting fear has not been there.
> View attachment 141975
> View attachment 141976




Other evidence to this is that several speccy stocks have found a bottom and have begun an upwards trend


----------



## qldfrog (21 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Other evidence to this is that several speccy stocks have found a bottom and have begun an upwards trend



But the asx did not match the US markets correction in any way..so what will the future be for us even if us market rebonds...
Time will tell


----------



## eskys (21 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> S&P500 futures were deep in Green last night before opening. Then S&P500 plummeted well over 2%. At 3am all the News outlets flashed "Bear Market confirmation". 3.30am the S&P500 came back like Lazarus to finish up even.
> 
> Made me think, if the U.S. does go into Recession it'll be around Xmas/New Year





S&P took a plunge around midnight, spooked by recession fears. Calls not exercised, Mohammed?


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (21 May 2022)

eskys said:


> S&P took a plunge around midnight, spooked by recession fears. Calls not exercised, Mohammed?



Thanks. I'm guessing you know more about those than me.


----------



## eskys (21 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Thanks. I'm guessing you know more about those than me.



You got it wrong. I don't know more than you! That was a question.....guess work on my part.

Anyhow, it's election day. Hope our team wins, good luck..........I should have gone to the polling booth. Instead I had an extra coffee and given me the shakes


----------



## divs4ever (21 May 2022)

yep !

 let the super-spreader event begin


----------



## ducati916 (21 May 2022)

gartley said:


> Whilst the "everything bubble" has slowly been deflating downisde projection was now been reached on the 78W cycle.  We should start to see the begining of a multi week/month rally  soon. Interestingly the VIX has been basically sideways during the decline suggesting fear has not been there.
> View attachment 141975
> View attachment 141976




I agree that we may indeed see some relief/rally in SPY:




However the VIX has not been moving sideways. It is reproducing the 2007/2008 pattern:




A rally in SPY with a dip in VIX would be entirely consistent technically.

Until the macro fundamentals are resolved, it is an ever worsening bear market.






The interest on $30.5T at 0.005% = $0.1525T


GDP = $24T. Tax revenue = $3.84T


At 10% FFR, the interest (that required to tame inflation at 8.5%) = $3.05T. So essentially the interest required to pay the debt, consumes 79% of tax revenues.


What about everything else?


The Fed would need to monetise everything else. What happens to inflation? Is it tamed at 10% or does it need to rise further...which simply increases the amount required from the Fed to be monetised.


The debt is now simply so extreme, it cannot be paid unless GDP and tax take increases SUBSTANTIALLY. The problem is that FFR of 10% induces a major recession/depression and GDP collapses.

The rally, if it materialises, is a last opportunity to exit.

The problem with technicals in a bear market, is that they are far less reliable than they are in a bull market. So while I agree the technicals look ready for a really major bounce, maybe not.




jog on
duc


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (22 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> I agree that we may indeed see some relief/rally in SPY:
> 
> View attachment 141999
> 
> ...



Some of that is just beyond me Mr Duc, but two points:

Firstly the Debt from Stimulus I assume you're talking about. Can't they just wipe that and take it back over time.

Secondly, the Vix pattern. How much meaning has that? The Vix by itself is a rather "shut the gate after the Horse has bolted" indicator.

Supply and Inflation issues causing Consumer and Business concern, along with Building and Housing, but Employment and Wages strong resulting in Retail spending still strong, thus Production is too.


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## divs4ever (22 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Firstly the Debt from Stimulus I assume you're talking about. Can't they just wipe that and take it back over time.



 yes they can , the current  regime is trying to 'forgive'  ( fully or partially ) Education Debt  ( which translates to stop taxing the student pass the expense to tax-payers)

 now i am NOT saying that a good policy , just one policy  that is being  proposed currently in the US

 they have already defaulted ( delayed indefinitely )  on the gold commitment  ( to give one ounce of gold in exchange  for $US 35 ) but also deriving the benefit the excessively created currency 

 given the extent of US debt  only the most extreme optimist would think it will be repaid in a timely manner


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (22 May 2022)

My last Post refers to the U.S. but the same applies to Australia:

Aussie Firms Up on Strong Jobs Data
Australia Jobless Rate Stays at Record Low
Australia Q1 Wage Prices Rise the Most in Over 3 Years
RBA Sees More Rate Hikes: May Meeting Minutes
Australia New Home Sales Fall 1.2% MoM in April
Australia Private House Approvals Down 3% MoM
Australia Building Permits Drop 18.5% MoM
Australia Consumer Mood Plunges in May
Australia Retail Sales Grow for 3rd Month.


----------



## ducati916 (22 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Some of that is just beyond me Mr Duc, but two points:
> 
> Firstly the Debt from Stimulus I assume you're talking about. Can't they just wipe that and take it back over time.
> 
> ...




Evening,

Re. the QE, they will take that back via QT at about 1.3T/annum. That is a huge issue, bigger than rising rates. Already the dollar is trending higher, ie. there is dollar demand. This is because the US consumer has already slowed their demand, which is import driven (China). US inventories are way up...look at TGT and WMT, very high (unsold) inventories.

A slowdown in US consumer spending (imports) means less dollars being supplied. QT to the tune of $1.3T/annum is going to create a liquidity crisis that will start in Asia/Europe and spread to the US. Add to that the leverage of derivative contracts (SWAPS) which are unmargined and dark and counter-party risk cannot be managed.

The VIX, like any price, is trending higher. In 2007/08 there was a very similar pattern building, followed by an explosion higher. That explosion is a liquidity event. EVERYTHING is sold in a mad dash for cash.

The 'Powell Put' is far lower than many imagine. It is not a 20% decline. It will be closer to a 40% decline in SPY before the Fed move to rein in FFR rises and reverse QT back to QE.

Enjoy.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog (22 May 2022)

ducati916 said:


> Evening,
> 
> Re. the QE, they will take that back via QT at about 1.3T/annum. That is a huge issue, bigger than rising rates. Already the dollar is trending higher, ie. there is dollar demand. This is because the US consumer has already slowed their demand, which is import driven (China). US inventories are way up...look at TGT and WMT, very high (unsold) inventories.
> 
> ...



Do you see that at 40% from peak or 40% from now Mr Duc?


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (22 May 2022)

I think @divs4ever said a day or two ago the Fed are setting back their QT.

Yes. Inventories up a bit, good find. Thanks.


----------



## ducati916 (22 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Do you see that at 40% from peak or 40% from now Mr Duc?




Monsieur Frog,

From the top.

jog on
duc


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (23 May 2022)

Both the XJO and AXVI have been falling all day. The Hang Seng to blame for the XJO?


----------



## qldfrog (23 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Both the XJO and AXVI have been falling all day. The Hang Seng to blame for the XJO?



Damned, many of my systems were getting back in


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (23 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Damned, many of my systems were getting back in



If the AXVI is also falling, wouldn't that indicate a rebound in XJO is likely coming?


----------



## CityIndex (23 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Both the XJO and AXVI have been falling all day. The Hang Seng to blame for the XJO?



It seems like this could be the case. The move lower really began to take shape around the open in China as COVID cases in Beijing sparked fresh lockdown concerns. 

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how XJO continues to interact with 7200, with today marking the second rejection as it approached key level in less than a week.


----------



## wayneL (23 May 2022)

It's all short-term stuff, which is fine if you're trading short term.

Sometime this year I am punting that we will see a five on the front of the XJO, perhaps a four.

If not this year, then next year.

If not next year, then the year after.

How far can you kick a can?


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (23 May 2022)

Short term upswing, dependent on China, then the chickens will gradually come home to roost second half of 2022 into 2023.


----------



## qldfrog (23 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Short term upswing, dependent on China, then the chickens will gradually come home to roost second half of 2022 into 2023.



My view, 
we still have BTD, not capitulated yet players plus super always in:
 so we will see a BTD, get higher indexes then FOMO, but another rate raise in the us next month..slow rise,confusion then capitulation sliw then fast until feds stop qt
I have kept my shorts for mid july.

I tend to be always too early and missed the dip by less then a month with option expired in april.
->This time i also took September options(short)
And will keep trading long for another months then liquidate hopefully at a profit.my system will be doing their work but maybe on reduced size, i am just reinstating full size today.
Pray for me


----------



## divs4ever (23 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's all short-term stuff, which is fine if you're trading short term.
> 
> Sometime this year I am punting that we will see a five on the front of the XJO, perhaps a four.
> 
> ...



 about nine years longer than i thought they could and are still going , 

i can't afford to wait , i suspect some banks  will need to bail-in ( if only one or two ) or need more bail-outs  if several are liable to fail


----------



## sptrawler (23 May 2022)

Jeez guys, just segregate the portfolio, into long term keep for dividends, medium term keep for profit, short term keep to flip when it hits the sell mark.
Then have a comfortable nest egg incase it all goes to $hit, life is so much easier, I'm not convinced that running numbers up and down, buy now, sell now, then re buy now is for everyone.
It might suit my wife she is OCD. 
But having said that, there are some very learned guys and ladies on here, who have enlightened me to some great buys and I'm forever grateful.
My SMSF always sits with at least 30% cash, the rest fluctuates, normally 50% blue chip div paying and 20% spec flip for profit.
At the end of the day your super or investments have to replace your income, or else you need to focus on the pension, the first thing is to make sure you are not having to pay rent because that is a variable that you have no control over. 
I guess I'm giving these pearls of wisdom, because I'm just about over it, too old to care and running out of enthusiasm.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (24 May 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Jeez guys, just segregate the portfolio, into long term keep for dividends, medium term keep for profit, short term keep to flip when it hits the sell mark.
> Then have a comfortable nest egg incase it all goes to $hit, life is so much easier, I'm not convinced that running numbers up and down, buy now, sell now, then re buy now is for everyone.
> It might suit my wife she is OCD.
> But having said that, there are some very learned guys and ladies on here, who have enlightened me to some great buys and I'm forever grateful.
> ...



Agree entirely. I am a long term Holder too, but there is also money to be made (and lost) short term. Just look at the 1 and 2 percent swings this past year,the S&P 500 overnight. Not only that, but the learning curve when looking a bit shorter is huge.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (24 May 2022)

Before the Bell today the NZ Retail figures come out, then a plethora of Manufacturing numbers starting with Aus at 9am, then Japan this arvo, then after our Bell France, Germany, Euro, GB and the U.S. overnight.
Those Europe and U.S. numbers have me worried that the "tanking" could begin overnight.

And that's before taking into account China slowdown and Lockdowns.


----------



## waterbottle (24 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Before the Bell today the NZ Retail figures come out, then a plethora of Manufacturing numbers starting with Aus at 9am, then Japan this arvo, then after our Bell France, Germany, Euro, GB and the U.S. overnight.
> Those Europe and U.S. numbers have me worried that the "tanking" could begin overnight.
> 
> And that's before taking into account China slowdown and Lockdowns.



This data is looking at what has already happened though. China is on track to exit lockdown.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un (24 May 2022)

waterbottle said:


> This data is looking at what has already happened though. China is on track to exit lockdown.



Nope. PMI is a "canary in the Mime" sorta thing.


----------



## CityIndex (25 May 2022)

Not surprising to see tech as the worst performer on the ASX200 this morning, echoing the sector’s similar underperformance on Wall Street overnight following Snap’s profit warning.

However, it is interesting to see how XJO quickly retreated back below 7200 despite the spike at the open which seems to have come from the BHP/Woodside demerger.

All trading carries risk, but is the index potentially signaling an inability to hold above this key level over the near-term?


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (27 May 2022)

Has the XJO peaked for the day having already anticipated the upcoming Retail numbers, or in a holding pattern until 11.30am?


----------



## CityIndex (27 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Has the XJO peaked for the day having already anticipated the upcoming Retail numbers, or in a holding pattern until 11.30am?




Heading into the last hour of trade now, and it looks like the index put in its high during the opening few minutes.

XJO seems unable to overcome the selling pressure around 7200, although it isn't all that surprising to see such a strong resistance form at this key psychological level. 

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting if it can put together a rally and breakout  within the coming days, as this would likely open the door to a strong move higher.


----------



## wayneL (27 May 2022)

Allegorical


----------



## brerwallabi (27 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> Allegorical




Might be a precipitous drop in that ditch.


----------



## wayneL (10 June 2022)

Now this is *starting to ruin my thesis of a traditional October crash. Nobody has freaking patience these days


----------



## Telamelo (10 June 2022)

wayneL said:


> Now this is *starting to ruin my thesis of a traditional October crash. Nobody has freaking patience these days



Bargains aplenty leading up towards end of June methinks... the key though is stock selection/which sector etc. as I'm looking at picking up more cheap Goldie's (not investment advice per say).


----------



## greggles (10 June 2022)

June is going to be a very bad month for global financial markets, but hopefully things will improve in the new financial year. Those in cash are going to make out like bandits. Aussie market going to get hammered today.


----------



## qldfrog (10 June 2022)

greggles said:


> June is going to be a very bad month for global financial markets, but hopefully things will improve in the new financial year. Those in cash are going to make out like bandits. Aussie market going to get hammered today.



Not as low as i hoped...


----------



## wayneL (10 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Not as low as i hoped...



Wait till later, it's still going to get even uglier later in the year, barring RB cash raining from the heavens.


----------



## CityIndex (10 June 2022)

The ASX200 is on track for its worst week since the pandemic, but does already look like it's trying to bounce after testing range support around 6950 in opening trade today. 

We could see dip-buyers once again step in at this level, but with the prospect of a more aggressive RBA tightening cycle adding to the selling pressure, the market is still at risk of breaking down further in the near-term and potentially retesting the January lows near 6750.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how the ASX moves over the coming weeks. Not to mention the reaction to tonight's US CPI print, which could have a significant impact on global sentiment.


----------



## mullokintyre (10 June 2022)

The ole saying, "sell in May and go away" might have to be changed to "sell in June and leave room."
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 June 2022)

Smaller end of the market is being sold in big licks; definitely anything without a viable pathway / observable earnings is ''asymmetric to the downside".


----------



## divs4ever (10 June 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> The ole saying, "sell in May and go away" might have to be changed to "sell in June and leave room."
> Mick



 NOPE
 if you had of sold it May you would have been sitting on a pile of cash , thinking you had dodged a heat-seeking missile


----------



## KevinBB (14 June 2022)

What we need is a really good "panic" day. None of this 5 or 6 percent down stuff. Give us a real panic so I can deploy some cash!
KH


----------



## waterbottle (14 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> What we need is a really good "panic" day. None of this 5 or 6 percent down stuff. Give us a real panic so I can deploy some cash!
> KH



LOL WHaat

5% down day is literally a panic day. How many times have there been 5% down days?


----------



## KevinBB (14 June 2022)

waterbottle said:


> LOL WHaat
> 
> 5% down day is literally a panic day. How many times have there been 5% down days?



The big picture tells me that with XJO at 6598.8 (as it is as I write), it is still only 13.55% below its August 2021 high. That's not enough of a drop for me to get really enthusiastic.
KH


----------



## eskys (14 June 2022)

Coles and WOW are holding well at this stage, down less than 2% amongst the panic


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 June 2022)

It has a way to go. 

Banks wildly overvalued with known unknowns. 

gg


----------



## eskys (14 June 2022)

Morning gg, you mean down? Yes, not impossible, the more aggressive are trading them or the conservatives thinking they can only buy food at supermarkets? I'm wondering if people are thinking about food again. Even EDV has gone a tad green and it's in drinks and hospitality.


----------



## wayneL (14 June 2022)

None of this is even on the radar of any of my clientele at this stage.... Inflation and interest rates yes, but the deeper implications hasn't even entered their head yet.

What this means is that we are nowhere even close to a contrarian buy signal and there is still massive potential or downside.


----------



## Knobby22 (14 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It has a way to go.
> 
> Banks wildly overvalued with known unknowns.
> 
> gg






wayneL said:


> None of this is even on the radar of any of my clientele at this stage.... Inflation and interest rates yes, but the deeper implications hasn't even entered their head yet.
> 
> What this means is that we are nowhere even close to a contrarian buy signal and there is still massive potential or downside.




Yes, we haven't had a bank scare yet.
i remember when Westpac were on the ropes.

In the USA where regulations were slackened again its only a matter of time.
And what about Italy, Spain etc?


----------



## bluekelah (14 June 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, we haven't had a bank scare yet.
> i remember when Westpac were on the ropes.
> 
> In the USA where regulations were slackened again its only a matter of time.
> And what about Italy, Spain etc?



yeah i do remember back in the day there was the greece default and euro contagion worry. PIGS nations i think they call em. Those guys are already bankrupt. Would be interesting to see what happen with the war, inflation in europe. The ECB cannot afford to raise rates at all.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 June 2022)

I really don't see what all the panic is about.

To quote that great Australian cricketer who scored as much off the pitch as on, including with two or ten Royals.



> I'll tell you what pressure is. Pressure is a Messerschmitt up your arse. Playing cricket is not.




It is the same with the market.

These times will pass and @Jezwanko will be spruiking some godawful scheme again. I wonder what Jezwan's second name is?

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 June 2022)

Well, I know where the next 12 months' outgoings are going to be sourced, (hint; mainly a bank a/c and some predictable dividends) so unless it's all over, I'm going to sit and watch. Debt is not an event any more.

Not pretty at present, and I can't see buying the dips as a strategy just yet.


----------



## grah33 (14 June 2022)

do we or don't we buy stuff like bear/bboz/bbus now??
just don't know if the markets will start bulling up again


----------



## basilio (14 June 2022)

From the comments on the ABC this is no time to be buying into the dips.  I think sentiment has changed markedly.  We are yet to see the full financial/political/social fallout from the last 3 months of war in Ukraine. Can certainly predict  a number of business failures as economic conditions tighten.









						ASX 200 3.6pc down after recession fears wipe tens of billions from share market — as it happened
					

The Australian share market has plunged on global fears of rising interest rates in the US. Business reporter Sue Lannin unpacks what it all means.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Tropico (14 June 2022)

What comes out of the US FED/FOMC meeting tomorrow night might indicate where things will be headed.
Will they go for 0.5 or 0.75 rise.  The expectation is 50/50 for 0.5


----------



## Value Collector (14 June 2022)

If it’s cash I am holding for a specific purpose like paying my self a wage, tax reserve or some other specific short term savings I use Plenti.

With Plenti you can put money away in either 1 month market, 3 year market or 5 year market.

It gets paid back to you as monthly principle and interest payments, which is good for funding your weekly “pay check”.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 June 2022)

basilio said:


> From the comments on the ABC this is no time to be buying into the dips.  I think sentiment has changed markedly.  We are yet to see the full financial/political/social fallout from the last 3 months of war in Ukraine. Can certainly predict  a number of business failures as economic conditions tighten.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




ABC Finance has gotta be the biggest contrarian indicator tho, as soon as something like this makes it to the front page you should probably fade it.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 June 2022)

basilio said:


> From the comments on the ABC this is no time to be buying into the dips.  I think sentiment has changed markedly.  We are yet to see the full financial/political/social fallout from the last 3 months of war in Ukraine. Can certainly predict  a number of business failures as economic conditions tighten.






InsvestoBoy said:


> ABC Finance has gotta be the biggest contrarian indicator tho, as soon as something like this makes it to the front page you should probably fade it.



Front cover of _The Economist _or , especially, _Time_ Magazine have set that bar very high.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 June 2022)

basilio said:


> From the comments on the ABC this is no time to be buying into the dips.  I think sentiment has changed markedly.  We are yet to see the full financial/political/social fallout from the last 3 months of war in Ukraine. Can certainly predict  a number of business failures as economic conditions tighten.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





InsvestoBoy said:


> ABC Finance has gotta be the biggest contrarian indicator tho, as soon as something like this makes it to the front page you should probably fade it.



I wouldn't send any of the ABC Financial Team down to the corner store to buy me a pack of Winnie Blues. They's probably get short-changed. 

There are no experts in this scenario. Except perhaps one of the little old ladies on a Zimmer frame outside Coles. 

This is a mob rioting. I was in a few of them in my teen years and unless the wallopers come in and wallop hard to restore order it is impossible to know when everyone will go home. The US Fed are a mob of impotent old men, and the Central Bank here are little better. 

It all may fizzle out or we could go to perdition. Making money at the moment is for people sitting on their a***s on TV talking about it. I don't watch television though I would if they got some good looking sorts appropriately attired discussing stocks.  

gg


----------



## Telamelo (14 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> What we need is a really good "panic" day. None of this 5 or 6 percent down stuff. Give us a real panic so I can deploy some cash!
> KH



Couldn't agree more as hoping we have "an end of the world panic double digit" down day!


----------



## wayneL (14 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Couldn't agree more as hoping we have "an end of the world panic double digit" down day!



Come to Papa...


----------



## Tropico (14 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The US Fed are a mob of impotent old men, and the Central Bank here are little better.



But they can control the interest rate and the money printing, even if they do miss the target more often than not. It is an inexact science (/theory) after all.
Nothing like this happened when Trump was the US President (but I might be feeling a little sarcastic).


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Couldn't agree more as hoping we have "an end of the world panic double digit" down day!



Two quotes from the wacky world of new money:


> “_Worst day I’ve had since I started trading_” said one.
> “_Worst day you’ve had_* so far*,” was the helpful response.



Welcome!


> “Today’s gonna be one of those days where it gets its own name,”



I don't think so. A mere sniffle


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 June 2022)

I believe what the US Futures are saying tonight is " We were only joking, ha ha "



>




gg


----------



## Gunnerguy (14 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I believe what the US Futures are saying tonight is " We were only joking, ha ha "
> 
> 
> 
> gg



What they’re actually saying is .... ‘we are only joking ....... this time’
😆😆😆😆😆
Gunnerguy


----------



## divs4ever (15 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There are no experts in this scenario



 well the commentators i take the most  notice of , have been saying 'uncharted waters/territory ' for about two years  , some as early as 'Repo Madness ' ( September 2019 )

 so maybe the experts in this scenario are the ones that are declaring  they DON'T know what happens next   ,
 i mean in 2019 who could have predicted the current money-printing plague AND very low interest rates AND lowered lending standards


----------



## grah33 (15 June 2022)

what's buffet doing now?


----------



## Craton (15 June 2022)

grah33 said:


> what's buffet doing now?



Good question.
Bit out of date but here's a brief glimpse of Berkshire Hathaway from mid May and its top four holdings.



> Its top holdings changed during the first quarter, with Chevron edging out Coca-Cola (KO) to move into the top four.


----------



## JohnDe (15 June 2022)

grah33 said:


> what's buffet doing now?




I read that he started selling in 2020, stating that the market was overheated. Now he's looing and slowly picking up quality bargains.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (15 June 2022)

JFYI all, I got a text from my mum saying "what happened to the stock market" last night, so I think it's time to get in on some of those triple levered long meme stock ETFs.


----------



## qldfrog (15 June 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> JFYI all, I got a text from my mum saying "what happened to the stock market" last night, so I think it's time to get in on some of those triple levered long meme stock ETFs.



In cases like that, you still need to leave a week for the masses to sell then buy....
I started putting a few low Ball buys on asx for conservative stocks, roughly half filled today.big question is how big the rise tonight in the usa.
if 1% or more, markets will be crucified,if less we might get to a rebound..dead cat bounce in my view


----------



## wayneL (15 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> In cases like that, you still need to leave a week for the masses to sell then buy....
> I started putting a few low Ball buys on asx for conservative stocks, roughly half filled today.big question is how big the rise tonight in the usa.
> if 1% or more, markets will be crucified,if less we might get to a rebound..dead cat bounce in my view



I hear The Fed has been buying bonds with their ears pinned back overnight, FWIW


----------



## divs4ever (16 June 2022)

last i heard they were NOT buying ( 'officially' )  any more and letting those that they held  mature , HOWEVER  i have seen  stories of uncomfortable news about the last bond auction ( in the US )

 so MAYBE the Fed has been forced to buy  ( without disclosing to the public ) , or maybe Blackrock is buying them up  ( on behalf of the Fed  .. maybe as bond ETFs )


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> last i heard they were NOT buying ( 'officially' )  any more and letting those that they held  mature , HOWEVER  i have seen  stories of uncomfortable news about the last bond auction ( in the US )
> 
> so MAYBE the Fed has been forced to buy  ( without disclosing to the public ) , or maybe Blackrock is buying them up  ( on behalf of the Fed  .. maybe as bond ETFs )



Moderate rise 0.75 and dead cat bounce it is


----------



## Telamelo (16 June 2022)

US Fed hikes its benchmark interest rate by 0.75%, the biggest increase since 1994​
“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Powell said.

He added, though, that he expects the July meeting to see an increase of 50 or 75 basis points. He said decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” and the Fed will “continue to communicate our intentions as clearly as we can.”


----------



## eskys (16 June 2022)

Markets did a dive before interest rates announcement and a jump after. Real estate up overnight, 2.33%. Energy the only one in red, according to my sector watch


----------



## Telamelo (16 June 2022)

eskys said:


> Markets did a dive before interest rates announcement and a jump after. Real estate up overnight, 2.33%. Energy the only one in red, according to my sector watch



Our ASX market should be mostly green today


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Our ASX market should be mostly green today



Never forget to great opportunity to buy cheap put options and sell your remaining dogs in the middle of dead cat bounces


----------



## Stockbailx (16 June 2022)

ASX is set to slip slightly at the open, as the SPI futures were down 0.6%. ASX 200 fell for the third straight trading day, down 3.55% on Wednesday, to a 15-month low. The index slumped 8% from the June high at above 7,200. With RBA’s vows to bring the inflation back down to the 2-3% target, more aggressive rate hikes are expected. Inflation is running hotter and hotter, which may rise to 7% from the current level of 5.1% by the year-end, said the Reserve bank governor. The Australian 10-year bond yield spiked to above 4%, the highest since March 2014.


----------



## Stockbailx (16 June 2022)

Here's a thought for panic stations all round? The AUS200 weekly chart looks undersold, and I don't think she can hold up, recent cap down is certain signs the ship is sinking. Being a optimistic look forward to sum rebound action of the weekly 120ema and daily fib retracement in the coming days, expect some sideways action, but I don't think the ship can keep her head above water as appears well and truly down under. (Hellsinki)


----------



## eskys (16 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Our ASX market should be mostly green today



Margin calls got booted out last few days, market probably go sideways a bit now, Tela. Big money can't make money unless small money lose their nerves. Next rate decision will be next month. The rout may start again before announcement in July? It's a wicked world.......


----------



## eskys (16 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Never forget to great opportunity to buy cheap put options and sell your remaining dogs in the middle of dead cat bounces



Frog, you forget that while the cat bounces, it can also deliver forth live kittens


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 June 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Here's a thought for panic stations all round? The AUS200 weekly chart looks undersold, and I don't think she can hold up, recent cap down is certain signs the ship is sinking. Being a optimistic look forward to sum rebound action of the weekly 120ema and daily fib retracement in the coming days, expect some sideways action, but I don't think the ship can keep her head above water as appears well and truly down under. (Hellsinki)
> 
> View attachment 142924



and today, an echo.


----------



## eskys (16 June 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Here's a thought for panic stations all round? The AUS200 weekly chart looks undersold, and I don't think she can hold up, recent cap down is certain signs the ship is sinking. Being a optimistic look forward to sum rebound action of the weekly 120ema and daily fib retracement in the coming days, expect some sideways action, but I don't think the ship can keep her head above water as appears well and truly down under. (Hellsinki)
> 
> View attachment 142924



Our graph is slowly going south......


----------



## Haxorus (16 June 2022)

Hi everyone, I'm curious if inverse ETFs is played well during these recessions? I was having a discussion with someone earlier today and the person was telling me that bboz/bbus etc will go downplay during these recessions... he was referring to this "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/07/leveraged-etf.asp", I just don't understand well enough, Anyone care to explain further on this persons arguement?


----------



## grah33 (16 June 2022)

Craton said:


> Good question.
> Bit out of date but here's a brief glimpse of Berkshire Hathaway from mid May and its top four holdings.



looks like he bought at the wrong time (market declined after)  .


----------



## grah33 (16 June 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> ASX is set to slip slightly at the open, as the SPI futures were down 0.6%. ASX 200 fell for the third straight trading day, down 3.55% on Wednesday, to a 15-month low. The index slumped 8% from the June high at above 7,200. With RBA’s vows to bring the inflation back down to the 2-3% target, more aggressive rate hikes are expected. Inflation is running hotter and hotter, which may rise to 7% from the current level of 5.1% by the year-end, said the Reserve bank governor. The Australian 10-year bond yield spiked to above 4%, the highest since March 2014.
> 
> View attachment 142923



bought a large coffee for $7.50  at a super service station recently.  the lady said they had 30% price increase from about 2 months ago.
the next 30%  jump, or 130% of 7.50% ...  could be the end soon


----------



## eskys (16 June 2022)

Buy yourself a Barista coffee maker, graph. Will save you money in the long run. Breville sells for under $700 recently. Ask for a knocker to be included (we call it the knocker cos you tap the coffee grounds on it to knock it out into the little container once you've made your coffee) And don't forget to clean the steamer if you use it for hot milk and descale the machine, according to instructions. If you don't, it will pack up sooner than you would like. (the coffee grounds are excellent for your garden, spread them around esp for acid loving plants)

Our market is slipping away...........


----------



## eskys (16 June 2022)

Haxorus said:


> Hi everyone, I'm curious if inverse ETFs is played well during these recessions? I was having a discussion with someone earlier today and the person was telling me that bboz/bbus etc will go downplay during these recessions... he was referring to this "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/07/leveraged-etf.asp", I just don't understand well enough, Anyone care to explain further on this persons arguement?



I was hoping someone will come in to help you out, but looks like everyone has gone home. Maybe you can find more information if you go to the BBOZ thread, good luck


----------



## divs4ever (16 June 2022)

Haxorus said:


> Hi everyone, I'm curious if inverse ETFs is played well during these recessions? I was having a discussion with someone earlier today and the person was telling me that bboz/bbus etc will go downplay during these recessions... he was referring to this "https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/07/leveraged-etf.asp", I just don't understand well enough, Anyone care to explain further on this persons arguement?



 the fact you don't understand them  well enough should be all the signal you need 

 but i have dabbled  in BEAR , BBOZ and BBUS   with success  well until the last parcel of BBUS  bought in late March 2020 

 now the trick in buying these is to buy near the TOP of the market ( rather than now  , hoping the slide will continue )

 now BBUS and BBOZ    are a derivative play   meaning you hold NO real shares or bonds 

BBUS​​Top 10 Holdings​As of 31 May 2022, 10:00 am AEST
Total Holdings
2
Category Average
--

Distinct Portfolio
Yes
Portfolio Turnover
--
Top 10 Holdings

CODECOMPANYASSET--S&P500 Emini Fut Jun22 Jun220.00%

Management Cost1.19%​​BBOZ​​Top 10 Holdings​As of 31 May 2022, 10:00 am AEST
Total Holdings
2
Category Average
--

Distinct Portfolio
Yes
Portfolio Turnover
--
Top 10 Holdings

CODECOMPANYASSET--Spi 200 Futures Jun220.00%

Management Cost1.19%

so you  have no tangible assets 

 compare that to 'unleveraged 

BEAR​​Top 10 Holdings​As of 31 May 2022, 10:00 am AEST
Total Holdings
3
Category Average
--

Distinct Portfolio
Yes
Portfolio Turnover
0.00%
Top 10 Holdings

CODECOMPANYASSETAAABetaShares Aus High Interest Cash ETF59.67%--Spi 200 Futures Jun220.00%

 which is at least 60%  in a 'cash ' ETF ( short term money-market )

 with the leverged inverse ETF  you need both timing , buying at the right time ( unlike me in March 2020   ) and speed  ( NOT holding them for two bloody years  hoping for a break even )

 because of the structure of these inverse ( leveraged ) ETFs  your $value  erodes over time ( as well as being eaten by inflation ) as the ETF needs to buy/sell new futures contracts regularly 

 now i have held BEAR , BBOZ and BBBUS in the past  , and now the ASX 200  has already lost  more than 1,000 points from the peak   is DOWN a good bet 

 i can give dozens of good reasons it is  but can also give dozens of excuses why we haven't had a real crash since 2011 ( and more arguably 2008 ) , this market is NOT playing by the standard rule book 

 now if you really must  gamble  have a look at GEAR ( i have never held GEAR ) where you have lower fees , a genuine portfolio    and WAIT until you think the market has bottomed ( either this correction  or the crash which still hasn't arrived )

 these inverse thingies are a trap for the slow-acting  ( you might notice BBUS went so low that in August 2021  it was forced to consolidate  , because it was looking like staying under $1 a unit )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 June 2022)

grah33 said:


> bought a large coffee for $7.50  at a super service station recently.  the lady said they had 30% price increase from about 2 months ago.
> the next 30%  jump, or 130% of 7.50% ...  could be the end soon



$2 at Shell/ Coles express for regular/ $3 for large.. (Crap but hey!!)


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the fact you don't understand them  well enough should be all the signal you need
> 
> but i have dabbled  in BEAR , BBOZ and BBUS   with success  well until the last parcel of BBUS  bought in late March 2020
> 
> ...



I use these on a daily basis.i learnt by keeping them for too long and losing a bucket.
Also open price on these  does not reflect the overall market indexes i have found but the sentiment so be aware of open price


----------



## Haxorus (16 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the fact you don't understand them  well enough should be all the signal you need
> 
> but i have dabbled  in BEAR , BBOZ and BBUS   with success  well until the last parcel of BBUS  bought in late March 2020
> 
> ...



Wow, alright thanks for the reply. Now it's more understandable of why people don't keep these as "long-term" investments. Now I understand the value of the money erodes when it comes to these inverse ETFs now. I'm looking at these inverse ETFs because I'm curious and wanting to make a play soon as we're getting rate hikes in 2 quarters of this year instead of broadening it out throughout the year and vix is kinda popping off its resistance like crazy..  

This what I was thinking before reading your post, "Wouldn't it be better to hold inverse etfs during "recessions, so like an inflection point between inverse and normal etfs" but you've answered my question just then..


----------



## Telamelo (16 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> $2 at Shell/ Coles express for regular/ $3 for large.. (Crap but hey!!)



Prefer McCafe at Macca's using their rewards app as claim every 4th large capuccino for free (coffee is reasonably priced too)


----------



## divs4ever (16 June 2022)

Haxorus said:


> Wow, alright thanks for the reply. Now it's more understandable of why people don't keep these as "long-term" investments. Now I understand the value of the money erodes when it comes to these inverse ETFs now. I'm looking at these inverse ETFs because I'm curious and wanting to make a play soon as we're getting rate hikes in 2 quarters of this year instead of broadening it out throughout the year and vix is kinda popping off its resistance like crazy..
> 
> This what I was thinking before reading your post, "Wouldn't it be better to hold inverse etfs during "recessions, so like an inflection point between inverse and normal etfs" but you've answered my question just then..



 from my ( limited ) experience   it is better buying them   when  the markets are uncomfortably high  , and off-loading  in a sudden drop ( like so far this week )

 now two buddies play with these but they are veteran investors/traders  (  both were at it  before the dotcom bust ) and are still holding  ( whereas i would have probably sold today or tomorrow  if i was currently in profit  500 points down  is plenty for me )

 when i was  playing  with these inverse ETFs ( mostly before September 2019 )   i was using them as a liquidity buffer   as insurance my normal bank wouldn't limit withdrawals 

 the scenario  considered   , was the markets/economy crashes  and  the savings banks limit withdrawals  , but holding BBUS/BBOZ  could be sold  in the downtrend  putting funds into the platform trading account  , so i could cherry-pick  some bargains , until the banks  went back to normal business 

 but the trap is how long do you accumulate these ETFs  before you start off-loading some in the dips 

 now recessions don't last very long , on average  , but depressions DO , so THIS TIME  what are we looking at  a once in 100 year  depression ( or worse ) or just another recession  ala the GFC

 now IF you believe the RBA they are hinting a rate hike every month up to Xmas  , while the US Fed doesn't meet every month so more likely bigger hikes less often


----------



## sptrawler (16 June 2022)

eskys said:


> Buy yourself a Barista coffee maker, graph. Will save you money in the long run. Breville sells for under $700 recently. Ask for a knocker to be included (we call it the knocker cos you tap the coffee grounds on it to knock it out into the little container once you've made your coffee) And don't forget to clean the steamer if you use it for hot milk and descale the machine, according to instructions. If you don't, it will pack up sooner than you would like. (the coffee grounds are excellent for your garden, spread them around esp for acid loving plants)
> 
> Our market is slipping away...........



I had a $900 brass boiler italian job, it was stolen when we were burgled, bought a capsule job rom Woolies, used it a about 10 times you can have it for free.


----------



## Telamelo (17 June 2022)

US market's down over -3%! so another "wipe out day" tomorrow on our ASX200 - Gotta love June lol 

"Cash is king" in such times of distress along with Gold!


----------



## Tropico (17 June 2022)

Gold is holding up quite well, up to $US1849 as I type.
The AUD is also holding on at just above $US0.70.
So it is not all out panic stations just yet, when the dash to cash ($US) would normally see both fall. But I guess times are not normal, or at least, not the same as the past.
The question is: "Is it too early to enter gold?"
Edit: punctuation.


----------



## eskys (17 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I had a $900 brass boiler italian job, it was stolen when we were burgled, bought a capsule job rom Woolies, used it a about 10 times you can have it for free.



That's generous of you, thank you, sptrawler  At the rate we're going, we'll soon by wearing wigs, let alone the smell of coffee


----------



## eskys (17 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> I use these on a daily basis.i learnt by keeping them for too long and losing a bucket.
> Also open price on these  does not reflect the overall market indexes i have found but the sentiment so be aware of open price



So far, I find it indicates the sentiment of our market, but not a reflection of all sectors. I think that's what you are saying too.


----------



## qldfrog (17 June 2022)

eskys said:


> So far, I find it indicates the sentiment of our market, but not a reflection of all sectors. I think that's what you are saying too.



It should be a direct link asx200...price of bboz but with the way it is build, it is more a market sentiment so not stricly directly link, wider variation especially at open


----------



## grah33 (17 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the fact you don't understand them  well enough should be all the signal you need
> 
> but i have dabbled  in BEAR , BBOZ and BBUS   with success  well until the last parcel of BBUS  bought in late March 2020
> 
> ...



helpful tips, thanks. quick exits for leverage ones , as u say
it's 50/50


----------



## Craton (17 June 2022)

grah33 said:


> looks like he bought at the wrong time (market declined after)  .



That was my initial thought too until I looked into why Chevron was added to and became the fourth top holding. Increasing divvy's me thinks plus, paid every quarter.
Looking at the Chevron chart and assuming was bought before the up tick, I wonder if some stock was off loaded before the grizzly hit us.


----------



## Gunnerguy (18 June 2022)

Just updated my portfolio.
Down 7.6% since my ATH on 1st July 2021. Ahead of my personal benchmarks of FTSE, IWLD and AORDS.
Ahead of these benchmarks over 1,2,3, and 4 years.
Currently only 15% in cash.
Offset accounts are full (ie. equivalent to the loans they offset).
IR on loans are about 3.5%.
Considering DCAing in to the market (Index ETF, and some specific stocks).

Will I beat my IR (probably (5% by June 2023) over the next 12 months ?

Gunnerguy.


----------



## Telamelo (18 June 2022)

"Waterfall type" capitulation coming !?


----------



## Value Collector (19 June 2022)

grah33 said:


> what's buffet doing now?



Buying, especially a ship load of his own shares, Berkshire has bought back $1.3 Billion of shares in the past 6weeks, and will probably be continuing to buy $1Billion a month as long as the share price remains low.


----------



## Stockbailx (19 June 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Buying, especially a ship load of his own shares, Berkshire has bought back $1.3 Billion of shares in the past 6weeks, and will probably be continuing to buy $1Billion a month as long as the share price remains low.




There keen, I guess that's why there got the big bucks. Me personally I wouldn't be buy just yet I think there's still more turmoil to come?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 June 2022)

Telamelo said:


> "Waterfall type" capitulation coming !?




So I have to add 

*WATERFALL*

to

*CUP AND HANDLE
SHOE AND SOCK 
AMBER AND JOHNNY*

This is all getting too much for very much an amateur chartist who started off hand drawing support and trend lines to bear. 

I will let my friend who is employed as a chartist at a large entity next St. Swithin's Day, when we meet of the Waterfall. 

gg


----------



## divs4ever (19 June 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> There keen, I guess that's why there got the big bucks. Me personally I wouldn't be buy just yet I think there's still more turmoil to come?



 more to come , sure , but WHEN  , and there is a good chance   financial transactions will be limited at the same time  , ( under some excuse or other )

 keeping SOME reserves ( and reduced debt  )  is always sensible to me  but after Cyprus and Greece  my trust is the banking system is gone


----------



## Value Collector (19 June 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> There keen, I guess that's why there got the big bucks. Me personally I wouldn't be buy just yet I think there's still more turmoil to come?



The Billions in Berkshire shares are just the top of the ice berg, he has recently bought $51 Billion in other shares too.

I think he was a bit peeved he didn’t act quicker in the 2020 covid crash, but yeah they are buying up pretty decent amounts of stock.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergei...ket-shopping-spree-heres-what-hes-buying/amp/


----------



## divs4ever (19 June 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The Billions in Berkshire shares are just the top of the ice berg, he has recently bought $51 Billion in other shares too.
> 
> I think he was a bit peeved he didn’t act quicker in the 2020 covid crash, but yeah they are buying up pretty decent amounts of stock.
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergei...ket-shopping-spree-heres-what-hes-buying/amp/



 as a person who was buying in March 2020  , the problem is , knowing which places to look  , now sure i got some good prices but probably missed twice as many AND the strong temptation is to keep SOME reserve cash  , and also the temptation to move that extra few cents  lower , then a few more cents lower ,  AND STAY CALM through all this noise and  shifting numbers 

 there is a time to be greedy , but keeping control of that greed is HARD


----------



## Value Collector (19 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> as a person who was buying in March 2020  , the problem is , knowing which places to look  , now sure i got some good prices but probably missed twice as many AND the strong temptation is to keep SOME reserve cash  , and also the temptation to move that extra few cents  lower , then a few more cents lower ,  AND STAY CALM through all this noise and  shifting numbers
> 
> there is a time to be greedy , but keeping control of that greed is HARD




Berkshire has plenty of cash reserves, they were sitting on over $200 Billion in cash, and are generating about $500 Million a week in free cashflow, so that pile just keeps growing.

So Warren needs to deploy that cash some how, and right now he can do that more effectively than he could 6 months ago, things might continue to drop and he will continue to buy, it’s impossible to wait till absolute bottom before deploying when you are working with Billions, and missing the chance to deploy is a bigger risk than deploying a little early.


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## divs4ever (19 June 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Berkshire has plenty of cash reserves, they were sitting on over $200 Billion in cash, and are generating about $500 Million a week in free cashflow, so that pile just keeps growing.
> 
> So Warren needs to deploy that cash some how, and right now he can do that more effectively than he could 6 months ago, things might continue to drop and he will continue to buy, it’s impossible to wait till absolute bottom before deploying when you are working with Billions, and missing the chance to deploy is a bigger risk than deploying a little early.



 well i am sitting on roughly $200 billion cash less than Berkshire  , and am generating some income  , but would still rather have the cash doing better than  bank interest  , 

 IF i pick a bottom ( and have done it a few times  )  i often end up with a part-filled parcel ( and annoyingly a sub-marketable parcel  , so the bragging rights are dampened by the brokerage fees , it would have been cheaper by a couple of cents higher and get the full order )

 but yes  i tend to buy early  , and if my target falls further , i am tempted to buy extra  ( but then i buy in fairly small parcels  , for that reason )

 and yes i have been nibbling at selected stocks  , but i think there is more down to come ... eventually 

 those Central banks are becoming expert can-kickers


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## grah33 (21 June 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Buying, especially a ship load of his own shares, Berkshire has bought back $1.3 Billion of shares in the past 6weeks, and will probably be continuing to buy $1Billion a month as long as the share price remains low.



then perhaps we shouldn't be using inverse asx funds ... we don't know i guess


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## wayneL (21 June 2022)

There's a view that we are unlikely to get much of a lead from the US market until after June 30th.

Why?

The JP Morgan protected equity trade, essentially a collar/vertical in SPX options which will reset on quarterly option expiry which is June 30th.

It's kind of obvious that the long strike is at 3700, so the sp500 is pretty much going to pin to that level.

Nothing sinister in that (on this occasion) it is just the dynamics of option market makers Delta hedging their exposure.

Therefore it's unlikely that we get very much volatility on our index at all until then.

FWIW


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 June 2022)

wayneL said:


> There's a view that we are unlikely to get much of a lead from the US market until after June 30th.
> 
> Why?
> 
> ...



Are they at it again ?

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...mits-spoofing-us-market-manipulation-pay-920m

gg


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## wayneL (21 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Are they at it again ?
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...mits-spoofing-us-market-manipulation-pay-920m
> 
> gg



Oh JPM have been fracking with the PM markets forever, 'specially silver.

As far as stocks are concerned it would just be the normal run of the 
mill stuff that they all do.


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## mullokintyre (29 June 2022)

From the Evil Murdoch empire


> Australia’s retail turnover rose for a fifth consecutive month to another record high in May as cost of living pressures continue to hit those across the country.
> The Australian Bureau of Statistics says retail sales were up by 0.9 per cent month-on-month in May, following rises of 0.9 per cent in April, 1.6 per cent in March, 1.8 per cent in February and 1.6 per cent in January.
> 
> Retail sales trumped market consensus, which had expected turnover to increase by 0.4 per cent.
> ...



Can't wait to read the experts analysis as to why the consensus (0.4) was so far below the actual (0.9).
Surprised that the ACT had a fall of 0.3%.
I mean that is the state/territory  which has the highest per capita income  according to the latest census data.
Has not helped ADH much, down another 5% so far this morning.
Mick


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## InsvestoBoy (17 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> ABC Finance has gotta be the biggest contrarian indicator tho, as soon as something like this makes it to the front page you should probably fade it.




Thanks ABC Finance


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## divs4ever (17 August 2022)

we are still in reporting season  ( the end where most results will be taken positively   , the others tend to come later )

 so it is all about forward guidance , outlook and market expectations  ,  however in this new era of virus restrictions  will guidance and outlooks ever be the same  ( it's like saying it is liable to be sunny in Melbourne tomorrow [ sometime  during the day ] )

 i am wondering if more  investors will focus more on earnings and debt levels  before investing in a company


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## InsvestoBoy (17 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i am wondering if more  investors will focus more on earnings and debt levels  before investing in a company




I just invest entirely on ABC Finance headlines


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## Belli (17 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I just invest entirely on ABC Finance headlines




I wasn't aware Play School had the finance news as subtexts.  Thanks for the heads up.


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## divs4ever (17 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I just invest entirely on ABC Finance headlines



 if that system works for you , good for you 

 i use different  sources  to play as a contrarian  guide 

 cheers


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## InsvestoBoy (17 August 2022)

Belli said:


> I wasn't aware Play School had the finance news as subtexts.  Thanks for the heads up.




Me investing


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## divs4ever (17 August 2022)

not Reddit  tracking  Nancy and Paul's investments ??

 they seem to being a lot better than JP Morgan


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## wayneL (27 August 2022)

The odds on my thesis of a traditional sept-oct crash just shortened overnight.

Place yer bets, boys


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## waterbottle (27 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> The odds on my thesis of a traditional sept-oct crash just shortened overnight.
> 
> Place yer bets, boys




XAO down to 6000
NASDAQ to 10000


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## waterbottle (27 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> XAO down to 6000
> NASDAQ to 10000




Can't edit this post, but I just threw these numbers out based on gut feel more than any "analysis". Only reason I'm bearish is because of this graph and fed rhetoric:






The 2/10 yield curve is a reliable indicator for a recession. GDP numbers in the US have been negative for the past 2 quarters (although last quarter was revised up slightly!). Inflation is turning (based on early data) but may take a while to come down to the 2% range from 8%+. Several fed governors have already publicly stated that they intend to continue hiking until inflation is well and truly defeated, even at the risk of recession - this strategy is also supported by the ECB & BoE, so there is the possibility of a global recession.

The current plan is to continue hiking until 4%* and then maintain that rate for a period of time!!!!* Current fed fund rate is 2.5%. There are three meetings remaining for the year. Current estimates (courtesy of the CME Fed watch tool) place a 75bps hike at 61% (v. 50bps @ 39%). Markets are estimating a rate of 3.75-4% by 14 Dec 2022 @ 85% chance. Then on top of that you've got QT (Fed previously published a note estimating its effect as the equivalent of a 25-50bps hike ).

So if all goes according to plan, we might peak at 4% - assuming, of course, that the Fed doesn't see the need to go further - then they'll hold for a few meetings before starting to cut. So now I return to the original graph. Market bottoms seem to coincide with whenever the Fed decides to cut, and when we're well into a recession.

So either we're in the middle of a recession right now, and the Fed will cut as early as Q1 2023, heralding a market bottom. Or as per the White House, we haven't even entered one yet and the bottom is further away 

Really though, who the f&!@ knows. Nasdaq doesn't get so many -4% down days. This year, the -4% days have been during down legs, or at the very end of one i.e. early-mid June, and they're typically followed by -2% & -3% days later on. So either this is still a buy the dip scenario or we've truly started another leg down...


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## pavilion103 (27 August 2022)

So annoyed I exited a short on the ASX futures a couple of days ago.
Knew there was a chance of a fall from this 200ma failure!

Should have stuck to my guns!! 
Makes entry harder now!


----------



## waterbottle (27 August 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> So annoyed I exited a short on the ASX futures a couple of days ago.
> Knew there was a chance of a fall from this 200ma failure!
> 
> Should have stuck to my guns!!
> Makes entry harder now!



You're not alone 😭


----------



## sptrawler (27 August 2022)

As long as we have some powder left to buy the dip, all is good.


----------



## Gunnerguy (27 August 2022)

RBA rate at >3.85% by EOY.
FED rate at 4% (0.75, 0.5, 0.5) by EOY.
Oz inflation above 7% EOY.
US Inflation above 5% EOY .
Oz house prices -10% EOY.
IR rate cuts not before June ‘23.

...... unless the banks chicken out and give up on fighting inflation.

Powell likes Volkers strategy and looks to be committed.

Unfortunately I think things are going to get very bed over the next 6 months. Energy prices issues in Europe, market declines of >15% from here. Global recession.

‘Winter is coming’ and I wouldn’t like to be in Europe over the next 6 months !!!

All will be fine for Christmas 2023.

I’m not going to sell out of the market tho. Currently 10% - 15% cash/liquid which is ~18 months living costs. Using my liquidity to gain income from option trading.

Gunnerguy
(.... Be careful out there, it’s going to get very bumpy, and stay healthy and safe)


----------



## pavilion103 (27 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> You're not alone 😭



There are probably many of us 😩

I hope it pushes up slightly to provide an entry but I fear a big gap down!!


----------



## pavilion103 (27 August 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> RBA rate at >3.85% by EOY.
> FED rate at 4% (0.75, 0.5, 0.5) by EOY.
> Oz inflation above 7% EOY.
> US Inflation above 5% EOY .
> ...



I’m 100% liquid!!
Plus trading futures.
I’m anticipating a huge crash and opportunity to buy up later! 
We’ll see!


----------



## Sean K (27 August 2022)

A pretty nasty day on Friday in the US, so we'll follow suite. People will be on the sell for sure.

Interesting to see the biggest losers that have brought down the US market. Vast majority are tech who have been running at XXXXX multiple p/e for the past few years. It's analogous to the dot com crash, to some extent. Risk on has come crashing down.

However, normal 'risk off' companies shouldn't really follow to that extent, although it's all intermeshed. Good time to be picking off companies that actually make money and provide dividends with little debt, or will be in the next 5 years. Should be some bargains out there if this keeps going and you've left some powder dry.


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## greggles (27 August 2022)

Hard to know where we're headed now. 1008 points down on the DJIA and 538 points shaved off the NASDAQ. The recent two month rebound between mid-June and mid-August feels a bit like an extended dead cat bounce.

The extreme volatility of early 2020 has returned and there will likely be some wild swings ahead. There will also be some great bargains to be had between now and the end of this year but I have no idea where the bottom will end up being.


----------



## bluekelah (27 August 2022)

FED says NO PIVOT at Jackson Hole loud and clear this time. No uncertainty there. Powell even said some "PAIN" will be expected and for target inflation to be back at 2% lol, that means rates need to go to 9%? thats nuts!!! 

Bitcoin always the first indicator of risk-off sentiment and its come down form 25k to almost back to 20k now. Markets will be down globally next few weeks until something breaks causing a black swan event. Its 2008GFC all over again I reckon, possibly we will see S&P500 below 3500 before the next FED meeting in Sept.

Watch the highlights from powells Jackson hole speech here


----------



## wayneL (27 August 2022)

My ridiculous end of year XJO prediction suddenly looking achievable... *Might* be in for the trophy instead of the wooden spoon


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 August 2022)

greggles said:


> Hard to know where we're headed now.



Just my opinion but I see it as akin to the captain informing the passengers that due to problems we're in for a very hard landing and to be ready to do whatever becomes necessary as circumstances evolve.

Brace yourselves. 

More specifically well it seems the Fed is making it abundantly clear, outright saying it, that inflation will be priority over anything else. That being so, it's hard to see the stock market and economy not ending up as collateral damage.


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## gartley (28 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> My ridiculous end of year XJO prediction suddenly looking achievable... *Might* be in for the trophy instead of the wooden spoon



Not ridiculous at all Wayne.  2021 was always going to be a pivotal time target from years back. Only we didn't know if it was gonna be a high or low. My 2c worth and I apologize if I sound ultra bearish for the long term bulls, but the price action that is gonna unfold in the next few years is gonna shut up a lot of perma bulls  in a range of markets that have been beating their chests the last few years. As they say " arrogance precedes distater"


----------



## Value Collector (28 August 2022)

gartley said:


> Not ridiculous at all Wayne.  2021 was always going to be a pivotal time target from years back. Only we didn't know if it was gonna be a high or low. My 2c worth and I apologize if I sound ultra bearish for the long term bulls, but the price action that is gonna unfold in the next few years is gonna shut up a lot of perma bulls  in a range of markets that have been beating their chests the last few years. As they say " arrogance precedes distater"



If I had to guess, I would say we will follow the USA down on Monday, but whether its a week or a month away, the market is going to accept that the feds actions are in its best interests, and the stock market will stabilise as people realise that there is no better place to store their capital.

I reckon by the end of the year the market will be above 7500 and inflation would have stabilised as a combination of central bank actions and trade normalisations work their way through.

But, yeah anything can happen in the short run when the speculators panic, so we will most likely be down tomorrow, but for me nothing has changed long-term, I actually like the Fed chairmans speech.

The perma-Bulls have been right for 120 years, I don't really see that changing, they will buy the dips and keep moving forward.


----------



## Sean K (28 August 2022)

I just wonder how long the Fed will allow the markets to decline before reducing rates and printing more money. They have form.


----------



## JohnDe (28 August 2022)

Sean K said:


> I just wonder how long the Fed will allow the markets to decline before reducing rates and printing more money. They have form.




🍿



> The rest of everyone’s investment future started early Saturday morning our time with the speech from Fed head Jerome Powell that sent Wall St plunging.
> 
> When the dust had settled and Wall St traders headed shakily to the weekend, the Dow had gone down just over 1000 points, or 3 per cent – it’s biggest daily drop since May.
> 
> ...


----------



## waterbottle (28 August 2022)

I looked at some historical data over the weekend. ASX tends to be less volatile than the NASDAQ, and it doesn't replicate the same large movements that US markets experience. Having said that, big moves exist, they're uncommon, and aren't always the beginning of a new trend....


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 August 2022)

Sean K said:


> I just wonder how long the Fed will allow the markets to decline before reducing rates and printing more money. They have form.



Just my opinion but they'll keep raising rates until something breaks.

The questions are what breaks and when but they'll just keep cranking up the pressure until it happens. 

Once it does, as with anything that has collapsed or burst, it all comes down real quick.


----------



## Sean K (29 August 2022)

Down 2%, so far, isn't too bad. Just wonder if there'll be follow through in the EU and US on their Mondays...

Would be nice if it holds above this general support line, but looks pretty vulnerable.


----------



## Telamelo (29 August 2022)

Sean K said:


> Down 2%, so far, isn't too bad. Just wonder if there'll be follow through in the EU and US on their Mondays...
> 
> Would be nice if it holds above this general support line, but looks pretty vulnerable.
> 
> View attachment 146061



Worth keeping an eye on pre-market US future's currently down -331 points (as to continuation of selling momentum from last Friday night?)


----------



## waterbottle (29 August 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Worth keeping an eye on pre-market US future's currently down -331 points (as to continuation of selling momentum from last Friday night?)



Also BTC and ETH crashing towards previous lows....


----------



## gartley (29 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The perma-Bulls have been right for 120 years, I don't really see that changing, they will buy the dips and keep moving forward.




Depends how long they are willing to wait......

I don't see this market back at 7500 so early more like testing 6450, but in the end we need to trade the market in front of us whatever it may do not what we expect or hope for.


----------



## CityIndex (29 August 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Worth keeping an eye on pre-market US future's currently down -331 points (as to continuation of selling momentum from last Friday night?)



Friday’s sell-off put the S&P500 back near 4000, so it’ll be interesting to see if the broader-market index finds support at this major psychological level, or breaks lower.

All trading carries risk, but with US yields opening significantly higher today, continued repricing for another 75bps hike from the Fed next month could increase the selling pressure on equities.


----------



## Gunnerguy (29 August 2022)

What level would one sell an October put credit spread on ASX200 ?

Is 5900/5800 ‘safe’, or could one come up to 6,200/6,000 ?

Gunnerguy


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> I looked at some historical data over the weekend. ASX tends to be less volatile than the NASDAQ, and it doesn't replicate the same large movements that US markets experience. Having said that, big moves exist, they're uncommon, and aren't always the beginning of a new trend....
> View attachment 146045
> 
> View attachment 146046
> ...





It's a different index composition (megacap growth vs largecap value)
It's a different currency
It's a different set of market participants trading the volume at different times of the 24 hour futures trading cycle.
Yes, SPI is less volatile, but the RV delta is not as much as your data implies due to the above.


----------



## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

gartley said:


> but in the end we need to trade the market in front of us whatever it may do not what we expect or hope for.



You can trade the market if you want, but you don’t need to, you can just buy and hold it, and collect the dividends.


----------



## gartley (29 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> You can trade the market if you want, but you don’t need to, you can just buy and hold it, and collect the dividends.



We each have different invetment objectives.  Yeah, you can buy and collect the divvy but what if you catch a falling knife that takes 25 years to recover?  For me the pattern of trend in this market is clear, we are headed lower and much lower over the long term. I agree with Wayne, be prepared to ultimately test the COVID crash low possibly even lower in the longer term. Just my opinion as ridiculous as it may sound...
My thoughts are those coming up to retirement need to take action now. Holders of real estate investment who bought  for capital gain in the last 10 years will be in pain also....

As for inflation getting back under control, don't bet on it. Interest Rates which usually trend the same way are in a new bull that will last a very long time.


----------



## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

gartley said:


> We each have different invetment objectives.  Yeah, you can buy and collect the divvy but what if you catch a falling knife that takes 25 years to recover?  For me the pattern of trend in this market is clear, we are headed lower and much lower over the long term. I agree with Wayne, be prepared to ultimately test the COVID crash low possibly even lower in the longer term. Just my opinion as ridiculous as it may sound...
> My thoughts are those coming up to retirement need to take action now. Holders of real estate investment who bought  for capital gain in the last 10 years will be in pain also....
> 
> As for inflation getting back under control, don't bet on it. Interest Rates which usually trend the same way are in a new bull that will last a very long time.



My strategy is simply to buy quality and hold through the market cycles, if the market drops I buy more, if the market rises, I buy more.

On average both traders and buy and holders get the same return, but traders share a larger portion of that return with their brokers.

Yes some traders (just like some investors) will do better than average, but only because so other trader did worse than average.

———————
We could see a big drop like the covid drop, but I believe it will snap back just as fast, and it might also not eventuate at all.

Basically the 100’s of companies listed on stock exchanges will earn what ever profit they earn, have growth of whatever growth they have, and pay what ever dividends they pay and buy and hold types will collect all that benefit.

Traders on average will collect the exact same growth and dividends as the long term investors on average,  but will have to pay more fees and taxes along the way, meaning on average their return is lower.


----------



## gartley (29 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Traders on average will collect the exact same growth and dividends as the long term investors on average,  but will have to pay more fees and taxes along the way, meaning on average their return is lower.



If you are not a trader how would you know?  Every trader is different, I would say most traders are net losers. Other traders however are making on average 5% a month consistently and earning a living from the markets whilst most investors buying a holding as a super fund  will  average 8% over  a 20 year period.
Whatever the case, most market participants I would say are net losers and it can't be any other way.


----------



## greggles (29 August 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Worth keeping an eye on pre-market US future's currently down -331 points (as to continuation of selling momentum from last Friday night?)




Looks like Friday's market rout will continue on overseas markets tonight. Going to be an ugly close in a few minutes.


----------



## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

gartley said:


> If you are not a trader how would you know?  Every trader is different, I would say most traders are net losers. Other traders however are making on average 5% a month consistently and earning a living from the markets whilst most investors buying a holding as a super fund  will  average 8% over  a 20 year period.
> Whatever the case, most market participants I would say are net losers and it can't be any other way.



If you re-read my original posts they actually answer your question.

The market generates a positive return over time, through dividends and growth.

Let’s call this return the “market average return”, buy and hold people are guaranteed to get the “market average return” over time, minus the minor fees they pay on entry and exit.

The Traders *as a group* also receive this exact same “Market average return”, except they redistribute it to each other via trading, so some end up with more, while others end up with less, but the overall  return of the group of trader is the same as the buy and holders minus their trading fees.

Of course traders pay a lot for in trading costs, so their returns will be less over all as a group than the investor group.


----------



## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

greggles said:


> Going to be an ugly close in a few minutes.




Well, we were down compared to fridays close, but we have only dropped back to what we were last Wednesday. Sharemarkets fluctuate I wouldn’t worry about it to much.

We will be lower than todays level in the future, and we will be higher than todays level in the future.


----------



## gartley (29 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The market generates a positive return over time, through dividends and growth.



Through dividends yes, but this is dynamic and based on business conditions of that company as such not always guaranteed or if so sometimes at a reduced level.
Growth depends on timing and when you bought. You could buy a company and you go into drawdown for years maybe a huge drawdown like 50% or more of your initial investment. If you are happy to ride this out then fine. I don't like it, as it ties up my capital and god knows how long you have to wait to recoup it, let alone a company going belly up.  For me it's too much risk, but that's me. Drawdown s.cks...

Account preservation and survival is paramount (don't want to risk any more than 1% of my account on any trade), as long it's intact I will live to trade another day as the markets never stop and opportunities are plentiful on a weekly basis.
For me develop a system that has proven to be robust over a range of market conditions, make sure that system gives good clean signals to ensure your best execution and make sure those systems are based on volatility and momentum conditions. Nothing worse than getting in and trade does nothing for a long time.
In so far as commisions eating into you, that depends on the tax implications of how you set your trading business up.


----------



## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

gartley said:


> Through dividends yes, but this is dynamic and based on business conditions of that company as such not always guaranteed or if so sometimes at a reduced level.
> Growth depends on timing and when you bought. You could buy a company and you go into drawdown for years maybe a huge drawdown like 50% or more of your initial investment. If you are happy to ride this out then fine. I don't like it, as it ties up my capital and god knows how long you have to wait to recoup it, let alone a company going belly up.  For me it's too much risk, but that's me. Drawdown s.cks...
> 
> Account preservation and survival is paramount (don't want to risk any more than 1% of my account on any trade), as long it's intact I will live to trade another day as the markets never stop and opportunities are plentiful on a weekly basis.
> ...



You are not really understanding what I am saying.

Let me try one more time with the example used by Warren Buffett to explain it, and you will either get it or you won’t, (Buffett actually won a $1 Million bet based on this theory that a market index would beat the average return of 200 hedge funds over a 10 year period.)

—————

Here is the example Buffet used to explain the theory. 

Imagine we split the entire stock market in half, we give 50% to a group of long term holders that just hold their half and collect dividends and take what ever capital gain or loss happens for the next 10 years.

The second half of the stock market is given to a group of Traders, who rather than holding their 50% share of the market immediately begin trading it amongst them selves over the next 10 years.

After that 10 year period both halves of the stock market would have produced the same gross return and both the holding group and the trading group would have been exposed to the same amount of value creation (or destruction).

The holding group would have all received their market average return, but the trading groups total average over all return would be less due to trading costs they incurred that diverted cashflow to their external helpers/brokers.

Now as you pointed out some of the members of the trading group will out perform the holders because they were able to take a larger portion of the return from their 50% of the stock market, but this extra return one trader gets is the at the expense of another trader in his group, so the group as a whole has less than the holding group even though some Individual traders beat the market.

That’s the simple point I am making, you can definitely trade and attempt to beat the market average return, but the odds are against you, and you may end up doing worse than the guys that simply bought and held and played golf for 10 years.


----------



## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

If you want to hear Buffett explain it in his words watch this video.

The actual explanation starts at 4.20 minute mark.


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## john5 (29 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> You can trade the market if you want, but you don’t need to, you can just buy and hold it, and collect the dividends.



to live off dividends alone you need megacapital, dividends can also be cut or stopped at board whim


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

__





						How To Write A Cease And Desist Letter
					





					roselaw.com.au


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## bluekelah (29 August 2022)

Back to June levels, as the fed pivot rally fizzles out big time.


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## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

john5 said:


> to live off dividends alone you need megacapital, dividends can also be cut or stopped at board whim




The vast majority of "traders" are not making consistent through the cycle returns that would mean they can live off a small amount of trading capital either.

Trading returns are not consistent and one would be a fool to believe they couldn't be stopped by the market at a whim.

Should be obvious to anyone with access to spreadsheet software and mathematics education at the year 10 level.


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## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

Even starting with a $200k trading account and assuming gun trader returns 30% per annum returns every year with no disruption, drawdown, volatility, etc ....you are talking $60k a year, pre-tax...might as well get a job at Woolworths, you will be doing a lot less work to get the same money.


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## gartley (29 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Even starting with a $200k trading account and assuming gun trader returns 30% per annum returns every year with no disruption, drawdown, volatility, etc ....you are talking $60k a year, pre-tax...might as well get a job at Woolworths, you will be doing a lot less work to get the same money.



Not less work unless you want to scan thousands of stocks..... I spend a few hours for the European open a then few more for US and I don't have customers and bosses busting my ass....

Then again why not have the best of both worlds and do both?


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## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

gartley said:


> Not less work unless you want to scan thousands of stocks..... I spend a few hours for the European open a then few more for US and I don't have customers and bosses busting my ass....
> 
> Then again why not have the best of both worlds and do both?




So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?

No. You don't.


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## gartley (29 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?
> 
> No. You don't




Don't tell me I don't, you have bloody no idea... Stick to your stock picking lottery

How much is massive ??
If you really want to know I have been trading full-time now for 3 years. I average approximately 3% a month annualised although  I think know I can improve on this.
The trading is nothing, the business end is in the background developing methods and processes 
I trade FX, Bitcoin, index CFDs  and ETFs
Very seldom any stocks

 Ofcourse I have had low months but there are more better months . 
Everyone has drawdown but hey it's about becoming a good loser and really cutting losses very quickly. As for volatility I love it...


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## waterbottle (29 August 2022)

Not sure how you could live off of dividends alone without amassing huge wealth, enough to be comfortable with the long-term hold (and associated drawdown) to acquire said dividend.

I'd call avg. Australian weekly wage of $1835.20 as "comfortable" for someone living in urban Australia in 2022. That's an annual income of  $95 430.40.
S&P puts the indicated yield for ASX200 @ 4.54%, which means you'd need a principal of $2 101 991.20.

Average hourly rate at woolies is $21.10/hr. Which means I'd need to stack shelves for almost 48 years to save up the principal


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## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2022)

How I see the market(s)
Primary Market.......... Capital is committed to a business. It can be in the form of Equity or Debt
Secondary Market ... Trading of these shares/ obligations (exchanges/ OTC/ dealer /auction)
Tertiary Market ........ Strange constructions; leveraged / geared/ collared/ synthetic etc etc

For me it is getting geometric returns (compounding). Mostly, trading is delivering arithmetic returns .


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## Value Collector (29 August 2022)

john5 said:


> to live off dividends alone you need megacapital, dividends can also be cut or stopped at board whim



I live off dividends, (and interest and rental income), I believe the best way to build that “mega capital” as you call it is to steadily accumulate capital in buy and hold investments and compound your income back into it. Due to the fact that trading increases your costs it’s going to have a net drag on the over all returns of those who attempt it, it’s a classic case of rabbit vs the hare, Traders think they will get where they want to go faster, but often don’t, I have seen it play out here all the time with some of the biggest trading advocates.
Yes dividends can be stopped, but that doesn’t affect my point,  all it does affects the total returns of both the trading and the buy and hold group.

The net affect is the same, the buy and hold group earn the market average return, and the traders earn that same return minus the extra fees they paid along the way.


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> My strategy is simply to buy quality and hold through the market cycles, if the market drops I buy more, if the market rises, I buy more.
> 
> On average both traders and buy and holders get the same return, but traders share a larger portion of that return with their brokers.
> 
> ...




 i don't buy  higher , unless the company makes a compelling move to do so  , however i have been known  to take some cash off the table if a stock rises to irrational valuations


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## Smurf1976 (30 August 2022)

As a practical observation, if there's a thread specifically about the market falling, and it's on a forum which is specifically about the stock market, then I think it's fair to assume most involved will have at least some interest in active trading.

That's not to say there's anything inherently wrong with the idea of long term investing and so on. Just that it's not the only approach and not the one to which short or medium term market direction is most relevant.

It's a bit like saying there's nothing wrong with classical music. Indeed there isn't but it's not really the place you'll find an audience wearing black T-shirts, headbanging, raising their horns and preferring to stand rather than sit. Even less likely you'll see women's underwear thrown at the band.

There's a place for everything and in the context of short to medium term market direction, those interested will be those actively trading.

Personally for my actively traded account it's about 30% in stocks / 70% cash at the moment. Sold very heavily last week - that wasn't an effort to predict the Fed announcement, it was simply that the wheels started coming off the market and hitting my stops. Selling started on the 15th - the market was starting to falter well before the announcement.


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

john5 said:


> to live off dividends alone you need megacapital, dividends can also be cut or stopped at board whim



not always  , if you get into a share early enough  , your div. yield off an individual share  can be well above 10% return  ( often juicy enough for you to bank some cash for the lean years )  having shares in companies in a variety of sectors can help as well ( not every company struggles in synchronicity with the market  .. but it might be different this time )

 take for example my holding in APE  ( notional SP average of $1.18 ) sure it skips the odd div  but the years it does pay 


Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date30/06/2022Interim22.000AUD100.0002/09/202205/09/202223/09/202231/12/2021Final42.500AUD100.0031/03/202201/04/202220/04/202230/06/2021Interim20.000AUD100.0023/09/202124/09/202115/10/202130/06/2021Special8.400AUD100.0023/09/202124/09/202115/10/202131/12/2020Final25.000AUD100.0031/03/202101/04/202120/04/202131/12/2019Final11.250AUD100.0031/03/202001/04/202020/04/202030/06/2019Interim14.000AUD100.0025/09/201926/09/201917/10/201931/12/2018Final22.500AUD100.0028/03/201929/03/201918/04/201930/06/2018Interim14.000AUD100.0013/09/201814/09/201805/10/201831/12/2017Final22.500AUD100.0028/03/201829/03/201818/04/201830/06/2017Interim13.500AUD100.0014/09/201715/09/201706/10/2017


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a practical observation, if there's a thread specifically about the market falling, and it's on a forum which is specifically about the stock market, then I think it's fair to assume most involved will have at least some interest in active trading.
> 
> That's not to say there's anything inherently wrong with the idea of long term investing and so on. Just that it's not the only approach and not the one to which short or medium term market direction is most relevant.
> 
> ...





 market dips have there place even for long term investors  , they give you the opportunity to bulk up on selected stocks  ( like i did with BHP when they dropped  below  $20 .. $18 , $15  )  similar with FMG ( since i was late to the party with them )

 picking to correct stocks to bulk up is the hard bit


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## Smurf1976 (30 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> market dips have there place even for long term investors , they give you the opportunity to bulk up on selected stocks



Or even for those simply buying into a managed or index fund.

Far better to buy in after the crash than before it.


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

but how long after the crash will your funds be available ??

 ( there is a possibility of banks limiting withdrawals or even bail-ins )

 also  some will be better  raking in the divs ( and franking credits )  while they can 

 remember how chaotic div. payments were  during 2020  , that could easily happen again 

 ( a pile of cash is nice , providing you can spend it when you want to )

 i suspect this will be very different from the 1970s  , but will it be similar to the great building society collapse  ( i got my cash tangled up in that )


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?
> 
> No. You don't.



 well i am not planning any draw-downs , however over the last two years   there have been all-cash  takeovers  that  provided  cash injections  , and hopefully i can maintain a cash buffer to take the bite out  div. disruptions  ( and i live a fairly frugal lifestyle , so am partly cushioned  from inflation )

 however if we move into hyper-inflation  cash will be useless ( you won't be able to spend it quick enough )


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## aus_trader (30 August 2022)

Like @Smurf1976 , I have some cash on the sidelines. But over time cash decays away due to inflation of goods and services as well as appreciating asset prices ! 

We are feeling it now in the current inflationary environment, so I could only imagine how cash may become trash in a hyper-inflation scenario, as @divs4ever said


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## Smurf1976 (30 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> but how long after the crash will your funds be available ??



If we're at the point where it's not possible to buy shares due to cash accounts being frozen then realistically it's game over for life as we know it.


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> If we're at the point where it's not possible to buy shares due to cash accounts being frozen then realistically it's game over for life as we know it.



well we could look at Greece and Cyprus as examples of what MIGHT happen  and say  minimal amounts of withdrawals ( say below $1000 a day ) for say 4 or 6 weeks  , now sure there might be some nice deals four weeks after the crash , but what about those who get margin calls or have option  deals 

 i am not saying it will  happen , but Greece and Cyprus  are fairly  sophisticated  nations  and to make it worse it was NOT the national government  decision  it was forced on them 

 in Australia that might be the IMF or BIS  ( instead of the EU and ECB )

 because the Western world is really financially messed up  ( and Australia is NOT 'too big to fail '  , so could easily be the sacrificial lamb )


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Like @Smurf1976 , I have some cash on the sidelines. But over time cash decays away due to inflation of goods and services as well as appreciating asset prices !
> 
> We are feeling it now in the current inflationary environment, so I could only imagine how cash may become trash in a hyper-inflation scenario, as @divs4ever said



well we have been in 'uncharted territory ' for quite a while , almost anything irrational  could happen  , IN THEORY Australia could become self-sufficient  ( again ) but would we even try 

 yes i have some cash , but i notice a few local shops no longer  take cash ... going to be some interesting  times ahead  ( wait until governments start  seeing revenue short-falls   due to collecting less fees and taxes )


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## Sean K (30 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> not always  , if you get into a share early enough  , your div. yield off an individual share  can be well above 10% return  ( often juicy enough for you to bank some cash for the lean years )  having shares in companies in a variety of sectors can help as well ( not every company struggles in synchronicity with the market  .. but it might be different this time )
> 
> take for example my holding in APE  ( notional SP average of $1.18 ) sure it skips the odd div  but the years it does pay
> 
> ...




Yes, if you get in very early it can work well. My parents got into the CBA float and they're collecting a dividend per share more than the price they bought the stock for.


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## Value Collector (30 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i don't buy  higher , unless the company makes a compelling move to do so  , however i have been known  to take some cash off the table if a stock rises to irrational valuations



if a stock moves up, and at a later stage I find myself with some more capital, as long as the new higher price still represents good value I will buy.

I don’t let the price I have paid for a stock in the past dictate my decisions in the future, I will either buy or sell based on what my estimate of its value is in the present.


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## Value Collector (30 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a practical observation, if there's a thread specifically about the market falling, and it's on a forum which is specifically about the stock market, then I think it's fair to assume most involved will have at least some interest in active trading.
> 
> That's not to say there's anything inherently wrong with the idea of long term investing and so on. Just that it's not the only approach and not the one to which short or medium term market direction is most relevant.
> 
> ...



As I said there is nothing wrong with attempting to beat the market average return by trading, but I do think discussing the pros and cons is important.

The reason I often bring the subject up is because the facts of the matter are counter intuitive. Most people don’t realise the tide the are swimming against when attempting to beat the market by trading, so I think it’s helpful to point it out.

Most of the worlds shares are held by investors rather than active traders, so I don’t think discussing the two different options is off topic.


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## Value Collector (30 August 2022)

Sean K said:


> Yes, if you get in very early it can work well. My parents got into the CBA float and they're collecting a dividend per share more than the price they bought the stock for.



I few months back I discussed CBA with TechA, because he said he had actually considered putting $10,000 into them back in 1996.

So I did the Math, and if he had put that $10,000 in and just let the dividends reinvest it would be worth $436,000 today, which is a 15% annual return.

It makes me wonder with all the effort T/A put into trading over the years eg, reading/studying with trial and error, etc etc has his end results actually beat what he would have gotten from that $10,000 CBA investment just held.

In the discussion I had with Tech/A he seemed flabbergasted that I could be retired but still be in the  highest Tax bracket. That made me think that perhaps despite all his efforts actively trading his stock market activities don’t produce earnings at a level that would put him in the highest tax bracket (other wise why would he be confused to my earnings)

However, if Tech/A had avoided his trading activities and instead just held his original $10,000 in CBA along with a steady dollar cost averaging savings plan into the market over the years he too would have a portfolio worth a few million dollars.

So in my opinion even though some traders like Tech/A have probably made money trading, if they actually compared how much they would have made with a simpler strategy they might find that their actual trading results are mediocre.

My point is just before you decide whether to trade or invest (or what portion of your capital to allocate to each) you should have an understanding of the pros and cons of both strategies.


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## Rabbithop (30 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I few months back I discussed CBA with TechA, because he said he had actually considered putting $10,000 into them back in 1996.
> 
> So I did the Math, and if he had put that $10,000 in and just let the dividends reinvest it would be worth $436,000 today, which is a 15% annual return.
> 
> ...



Top mark for your conclusion.


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

now my problem would have been  amassing $10,000 back in 1996 

 that would have been about half my yearly wage 

 but nice for those  that made that investment


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I few months back I discussed CBA with TechA, because he said he had actually considered putting $10,000 into them back in 1996.
> 
> So I did the Math, and if he had put that $10,000 in and just let the dividends reinvest it would be worth $436,000 today, which is a 15% annual return.
> 
> ...



Good morning,
Would respectfully put on the table though, whilst there is merit in both methodologies, rcw1 would much prefer the colour of money back in the rcw1 account ASAP, at a small profit, medium profit and even a large profit via day (s) trading, the accumulative affect is second to none, rcw1 view.   There are some exceptions, guessing there always will be.  The statement you made,  "_My point is just before you decide whether to trade or invest (or what portion of your capital to allocate to each) you should have an understanding of the pros and cons of both strategies."  *100% spot on for mine.*_

Have a very nice day, today

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Rabbithop (30 August 2022)

Unfortunately My Greed Power is stronger than Long Term Holding Power for a retiree. Had enjoyed that pot of money many many years ago in 1997 or was it 1998...only wish I did Hold it but again when it hit $A 100...how do one resist in cashing in the huge pot of gold🤷‍♂️


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## wayneL (30 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> now my problem would have been  amassing $10,000 back in 1996
> 
> that would have been about half my yearly wage
> 
> but nice for those  that made that investment



Good point re inflation adjusted returns. I believe the oft invoked Warren has a little to say about that and retained earnings.

One of his other pearls is noting that smaller accounts (meaning up to about $1000000 {and that's 80s dollar of the time}), could easily outperform the massive funds, including Berkshire.

This Max his bet regarding hedge funds a little bit irrelevant as far as individual investors are concerned.

Just FWIW


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## Value Collector (30 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> now my problem would have been  amassing $10,000 back in 1996
> 
> that would have been about half my yearly wage
> 
> but nice for those  that made that investment



Well apparently Tech had it, and was considering making the investment.


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## Value Collector (30 August 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning,
> Would respectfully put on the table though, whilst there is merit in both methodologies, rcw1 would much prefer the colour of money back in the rcw1 account ASAP, at a small profit, medium profit and even a large profit via day (s) trading, the accumulative affect is second to none, rcw1 view.   There are some exceptions, guessing there always will be.  The statement you made,  "_My point is just before you decide whether to trade or invest (or what portion of your capital to allocate to each) you should have an understanding of the pros and cons of both strategies."  *100% spot on for mine.*_
> 
> Have a very nice day, today
> ...



I am the opposite, I hate holding cash in my account, would much rather hold income producing assets.

I try not to hold more than a years living expenses in cash, I try to put excess money to work asap, I much happy holding a good business or piece of realestate rather than cash.

I do hold 5 years worth of living expenses in a special fund Inset aside to pay myself my weekly wage, but only about 1 year of wages is held in cash, the rest is invested in Plenti and a little bit in an unlisted property trust (the earnings from these funds is placed in my super)


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I am the opposite, I hate holding cash in my account, would much rather hold income producing assets.
> 
> I try not to hold more than a years living expenses in cash, I try to put excess money to work asap, I much happy holding a good business or piece of realestate rather than cash.
> 
> I do hold 5 years worth of living expenses in a special fund Inset aside to pay myself my weekly wage, but only about 1 year of wages is held in cash, the rest is invested in Plenti and a little bit in an unlisted property trust (the earnings from these funds is placed in my super)



Thanks Value Collector, to elaborate further, that cash rcw1 spoke of, don't just sit in account...  is used pretty much in regular cycle re trades on a number of stocks at any one time.  Buy / Sell, profit - free carry hopefully ...  Hope this make sense.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## wayneL (30 August 2022)

Redux fwiw:

Allow me to quote Ernie Chan, A quantitative institutional trader http://epchan.blogspot.com.au/2007/02/in-praise-of-day-trading.html

Which brings me to day-trading. In the popular press, day-trading has been given a bad-name. Everyone seems to think that those people who sit in sordid offices buying and selling stocks every minute and never holding over-night positions are no better than gamblers. And we all know how gamblers end up, right? Let me tell you a little secret: in my years working for hedge funds and prop-trading groups in investment banks, I have seen all kinds of trading strategies. In 100% of the cases, traders who have achieved spectacularly high Sharpe ratio (like 6 or higher), with minimal drawdown, are day-traders.


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## InsvestoBoy (30 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> In 100% of the cases, traders who have achieved spectacularly high Sharpe ratio (like 6 or higher), with minimal drawdown, are day-traders.




Agreed, but how many survive through a cycle. The crazy Sharpe people, if only just a few of them were consistently profitable for long enough, should be in articles about all the new billionaires being minted and shooting up the HNW ranks.

Doesn't seem to happen. Either the niche they were occupying gets arb'd away, they blow up spectacularly, etc etc. Only a few make it. Nobody posting in this thread is demonstrating anything approaching the understanding, scope and breadth of a 6 Sharpe daytrader, sorry. Just bum specs.


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

For mine maintaining profit over extended period of time within stock market sandpit, regardless of methodologies adopted, will always be a challenge.  

Kind regards
rcw1


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Agreed, but how many survive through a cycle. The crazy Sharpe people, if only just a few of them were consistently profitable for long enough, should be in articles about all the new billionaires being minted and shooting up the HNW ranks.
> 
> Doesn't seem to happen. Either the niche they were occupying gets arb'd away, they blow up spectacularly, etc etc. Only a few make it. Nobody posting in this thread is demonstrating anything approaching the understanding, scope and breadth of a 6 Sharpe daytrader, sorry. Just bum specs.




 i understand  enough that i can't do it reliably enough  ( day-trade for the majority of my yearly income ) 

 that doesn't mean sharpening up those skills is useless ,  one good trade a year ( even at my small buys )  could  put that cherry on the pie 

 so instead of being a professional ( earning your income that way ) i have to be opportunistic  ( grab the rare move when i spot one )


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## wayneL (30 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Agreed, but how many survive through a cycle. The crazy Sharpe people, if only just a few of them were consistently profitable for long enough, should be in articles about all the new billionaires being minted and shooting up the HNW ranks.
> 
> Doesn't seem to happen. Either the niche they were occupying gets arb'd away, they blow up spectacularly, etc etc. Only a few make it. Nobody posting in this thread is demonstrating anything approaching the understanding, scope and breadth of a 6 Sharpe daytrader, sorry. Just bum specs.




I would say burnout is a problem, also there is the matter of scale. You can't day trade a 5mil position size, hence it's more of an income strategy than an accumulation of spectacular large wealth strategy... And as you need to be a screen jockey it is oh so incredibly boring.

That said, you don't need to be a 6 Sharpe to do well.


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## Austwide (30 August 2022)

_I few months back I discussed CBA with TechA, because he said he had actually considered putting $10,000 into them back in 1996._

My intro to stock brokers was in 1991? when CBA IPO was $5.40. I put $20K in the account, told him I wanted $10K of CBA and the other 10K was up to him. He said CBA will be a waste, and suggested it all go elsewhere. I agreed and soon learnt stay away from brokers.
A retiring workmate  was putting in for $200K of CBA at $5.40. I haven't heard from him since to see how he went.


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

Love it.
Keep smashing this thread out.
The bots and algos with their text scraping abilities have ruled this out as a "fake news thread" (for now) because of a lack of correlation with the market. 
It gets a 1 / 0, on / off, true / false logic assignment. 

The thread that cried wolf. 🤣

Stop pussy footing around and get on with it. 
Step on a crack, break your mother's back etc


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## Value Collector (30 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> I would say burnout is a problem, also there is the matter of scale. You can't day trade a 5mil position size, hence it's more of an income strategy than an accumulation of spectacular large wealth strategy... And as you need to be a screen jockey it is oh so incredibly boring.
> 
> That said, you don't need to be a 6 Sharpe to do well.



It kinda of reminds me of something a footballer once said.

He said footballers play football for 20 years until they  have busted knees and shoulders and then they take up golf for the next 50 years, but they will never really be amazing at golf.

But the guys that play golf from the start end up being pretty amazing at it, So if your goal is to be good at golf, thinking about your golf game and not being distracted by football game is the way to go.

——————
I guess it all comes down to what your outcome is that you want, if your goal is to be a screen jockey with some income that’s all good, do the day trading thing.

But if your goal is have the kinda of freedom of time and income that only a decent size investment portfolio can bring, maybe work on that.

If you are truly a good enough trader that you can make a regular above average income, maybe allocate all your profits into a sound investment strategy that will allow you to step away from the screen when burn out or blow up comes.

Eg, start practising your golf game in your 20’s, not your late 30’s.


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## gartley (30 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Agreed, but how many survive through a cycle. The crazy Sharpe people, if only just a few of them were consistently profitable for long enough, should be in articles about all the new billionaires being minted and shooting up the HNW ranks.
> 
> Doesn't seem to happen. Either the niche they were occupying gets arb'd away, they blow up spectacularly, etc etc. Only a few make it. Nobody posting in this thread is demonstrating anything approaching the understanding, scope and breadth of a 6 Sharpe daytrader, sorry. Just bum specs.




Just to get to your earlier comments re it's impossible to generate 30% returns consistently. This is probably a very difficult task trading stocks to do on a consistent basis. Granted the last time I did close to 30% on stocks was trading gold stocks in the gold run or 2019. However I would say that 10-15% consistently can been done easily by a private trader betting both ways with a good approach.

But trading FX and CFD's with high leverage or even leveraged complex ETF's it's VERY possible if you have a robust strategy that performs well in most market conditions.
I can't generate a performance graph for the following account because the broker ( Oanda Australia) with whom I deposited $20K last October to try them out ( my primary broker is FXCM although I have quite a few accounts)  no longer generates them on their platforms. I have attached my trading summary month by month since October till July. Unfotunately I can't generate August for another 2 days but it was a really good month. But in 7 months from Nov till July a 46% return was acheived. This is not a big account, but there where no losing months and you have seen what the market conditions have been like during this time.....


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## InsvestoBoy (30 August 2022)

gartley said:


> Just to get to your earlier comments re it's impossible to generate 30% returns consistently.




That was exactly my point, to the turnip who said "you need a big bankroll to live off dividends", as if you can live off trading income on a small bankroll. The rest of your comment I think further just proves that point.

English comprehension is a wonderful thing.


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## gartley (30 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> That was exactly my point, to the turnip who said "you need a big bankroll to live off dividends", as if you can live off trading income on a small bankroll. The rest of your comment I think further just proves that point.
> 
> English comprehension is a wonderful thing.




I never said anything about living off dividends, your putting words into my mouth. Go back and read my earlier comment, it was regarding the potential capital losses and drawdown from holding stock for long periods just for the divvy.

Your comments below pal:
"So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?

No. You don't"
By top of the board returns massive you said 30% like it was totally unacheivable. Well you have a trading statement judge. Read it and you see how much disruption and drawdown there is...
Now I have just shown you that it's very acheivable and I am not gonna post any other statements of other accounts because you are a waste of bloody time and  I have better things to do..


----------



## InsvestoBoy (30 August 2022)

Lord save me from the turnips.


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

gartley said:


> I never said anything about living off dividends, your putting words into my mouth. Go back and read my earlier comment, it was regarding the potential capital losses and drawdown from holding stock for long periods just for the divvy.
> 
> Your comments below pal:
> "So you consistently earn massive, top of the board returns, year after year, with no disruption/drawdown/volatility and you achieve this with just a few hours of work a day?
> ...




 just to make calculations  difficult , now you have inflation  , which looks to be beginning to spiral out of control 

 so those returns need to out-pace inflation  and the increased taxes  ( either deliberately raised or via bracket creep ) 

 those 30% returns  savaged by 75% taxes ( and Medicare levy ) ( because you can bet the government will try to claw that 'easy money ' back )  won't be so easy to live on either 

 HOWEVER as a member pointed  out a brave soul buying CBA @ $5.40   is still doing quite well  with franking credits taking some of the bite out of the taxes  ( or in my case PME @ 16.5 cents )

 one problem with active  trading  is you need to be at the screen most trading days of the year ( maybe not glued to it  , but close enough  to check for a new opportunity  , regularly )

 the CBA shareholder  .. looks in the bank account twice a year


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Love it.
> Keep smashing this thread out.
> The bots and algos with their text scraping abilities have ruled this out as a "fake news thread" (for now) because of a lack of correlation with the market.
> It gets a 1 / 0, on / off, true / false logic assignment.
> ...



 i  can add a 'trigger word ' if you like 

 say  C.... virus , or recession , or maybe .... H....-IN......

 conspiracy chatter adds an air of excitement


----------



## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

I reckon @Joe Blow should visit with a big stick and magic wand and vanquish all the off topic banterers.
The ASX is NOT tanking, so there is no need to panic.

The conversation had degenerated down to soup vegetables anyway.


----------



## waterbottle (30 August 2022)

Please post more FUD


----------



## Joe Blow (30 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I reckon @Joe Blow should visit with a big stick and magic wand and vanquish all the off topic banterers.
> The ASX is NOT ranking, so there is no need to panic.
> 
> The conversation had degenerated down to soup vegetables anyway.




Not ranking or not tanking? Either way, this thread title is tongue in cheek so I don't think it should be taken too seriously. it's just a way to lighten the mood a bit when the market is tanking, which for most people is an unpleasant occurrence.

But yes, let's discuss the tanking market here and leave other matters for other threads please. If the off topic banter continues I will have to move some posts out of here.


----------



## aus_trader (31 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Please post more FUD



OK, some leading indicators from the US markets...




Heatmap really gives which direction stocks are taking, which could be relevant to asx tomorrow when it trades.




BTW, I was enjoying the off topic short-term trading vs long term investing debate... 

'cause I try to do both and both are hard in the current environment  📉


----------



## divs4ever (31 August 2022)

i would have thought the trend traders would be doing OK currently  , between reporting season and stocks going ex-div. , there should be some swings  to be  played 

 that heat map  reminds me of the last time i seeded a lawn  ( stuff all grass , a few weeds and sun-baked soil  all over )


----------



## divs4ever (31 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Please post more FUD



 i thought the Central Bankers  had the licence for that this quarter


----------



## waterbottle (1 September 2022)

Down 2% today on the back of nasdaq futures being down 1%. Looks like we might be heading towards June lows


----------



## CityIndex (1 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Down 2% today on the back of nasdaq futures being down 1%. Looks like we might be heading towards June lows



You could be right. The ASX200 has taken out the critical 6960/40 region with ease in today’s early sell-off.

While the market is likely to see support around the lows from January, a break below here would likely put the June lows back in sight. Should be interesting to see if bulls can regain some control at these levels today, or if bears continue to dominate.


----------



## Sean K (1 September 2022)

CityIndex said:


> You could be right. The ASX200 has taken out the critical 6960/40 region with ease in today’s early sell-off.
> 
> While the market is likely to see support around the lows from January, a break below here would likely put the June lows back in sight. Should be interesting to see if bulls can regain some control at these levels today, or if bears continue to dominate.
> 
> View attachment 146231




Looks the same on XAO support across 7200 ish.

Breakdown may confirm we just saw a bear market rally only.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 September 2022)

CityIndex said:


> a break below here would likely put the June lows back in sight.




just to make sure I understand, if it goes lower, it's going to go lower?


----------



## Value Collector (1 September 2022)

CityIndex said:


> While the market is likely to see support around the lows from January, a break below here would likely put the June lows back in sight. Should be interesting to see if bulls can regain some control at these levels today, or if bears continue to dominate.



Sounds like a daily Horoscope reading, hahahaha


----------



## waterbottle (1 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> just to make sure I understand, if it goes lower, it's going to go lower?



Nah. Might go up, might go sideways.


----------



## frugal.rock (1 September 2022)

Forget the rhetoric. 
Crack on with it lads.
There's always something heading north.
Find it. 

Insert sarcastic Homer Simpson voice here...
 "Oooh, The market is tanking is it? Oooh, watch me panic!"


----------



## finicky (1 September 2022)

^^^
Fluke


----------



## Telamelo (1 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Forget the rhetoric.
> Crack on with it lads.
> There's always something heading north.
> Find it.
> ...



RE: "Forget the rhetoric.
Crack on with it lads.
There's always something heading north.
Find it".  

Love it. I'm going to laminate above & stick it on my toilet door! Lol haha remind me every time that there's always an opportunity in the market 24/7


----------



## waterbottle (1 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Forget the rhetoric.
> Crack on with it lads.
> There's always something heading north.
> Find it.
> ...



Bboz?


----------



## qldfrog (1 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> RE: "Forget the rhetoric.
> Crack on with it lads.
> There's always something heading north.
> Find it".
> ...





waterbottle said:


> Bboz?



I was thinking same: 
	

		
			
		

		
	








current portfolio top performers so far today
sold roughly half BBOZ earlier this morning at $4.21

Other way is obviously options:


so yes, there is always a way to make money but .....


----------



## divs4ever (1 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> There's always something heading north.
> Find it.



 but will it be a stock i WANT to reduce/sell  ??

i am after something ( interesting ) heading lower  with vengeance  ( to buy/top up ) multiple nibbles if a suitable stock


----------



## divs4ever (1 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> I was thinking same:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 the trader buddy wants $5(+) to offload the BBOZ he has


----------



## waterbottle (2 September 2022)

Several stonks now breach their June lows on the ASX....


----------



## KevinBB (2 September 2022)

But all the major Australian indices are still well above their June lows (as of COB Thursday):

KH


----------



## Telamelo (2 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Several stonks now breach their June lows on the ASX....



Come next few week's then as Franco Cozzo would say: "Grand Sale! Grand Sale! Grand Sale! Lol on our ASX imo


----------



## barney (2 September 2022)

I'm not sure about the ASX , but I am long the DOW as of now (for the moment)!

Could be right, could be wrong, but I think the "budgie" has sung his song in the world of short term Index trading   

Stop loss to semi break-even or similar just in case I am an idiot!


----------



## rcw1 (2 September 2022)

barney said:


> I'm not sure about the ASX , but I am long the DOW as of now (for the moment)!
> 
> Could be right, could be wrong, but I think the "budgie" has sung his song in the world of short term Index trading
> 
> Stop loss to semi break-even or similar just in case I am an idiot!



Good evening barney,
US Non Farm Payrolls data tonight.  1st Friday of the month.  Time gets away from us.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## wayneL (2 September 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good evening barney,
> US Non Farm Payrolls data tonight.  1st Friday of the month.  Time gets away from us.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



"Unadjusted"


----------



## frugal.rock (2 September 2022)

wayneL said:


> "Unadjusted"



Good one Goober, perhaps turnip, perhaps Bogdan the turnip boy?


----------



## barney (2 September 2022)

Lol, Trading Futs is not my strong suit, but I am currently shorting the CAC (at a 2:1 ratio) against my long DOW positions. (Because I am in profit, lol)

(Hopefully, doing that at the "extensions" of each "short term" move (30-60-90 minutes??) so I can "lock in" any nasty downside risk?!

ps Currently working, but that may be pure luck, lol


----------



## frugal.rock (2 September 2022)

I'm wondering, is it the bicarb of soda that gets whites white, or is it the vinegar?

I think it's the bicarb, but I forgot.
The vinegar is the softener, right?

Clove oil is good to stop mould reappearing, a drop on bad tooth aches, tastes like crap though.

If we're gunna go off topic with this threads headline act, let's do it properly..🤪


----------



## barney (2 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm wondering, is it the bicarb of soda that gets whites white, or is it the vinegar?
> 
> I think it's the bicarb, but I forgot.
> The vinegar is the softener, right?
> ...



Hah ... very funny @frugal.rock 

You must have a secret spy camera in my laundry!

Yes, the bi-carb is the whitener, and the vinegar is the acidic "master-mind" to make it all work

I do not have the ability to post my short term Futs trades in "the short term"

But I did make a few bucks on my recent suggestions nonetheless.

Definitely no recommendation, but I am currently long the DAX with a "saver" Short on the CAC

Just in case I am again, an idiot   (often the case unfortunately)

Bottom line is, I am a little biased to the Long side tonight (until proven otherwise)

The DOW will obviously drop a squillion tonight just to make me look bad, lol!! (I doubt that   however  )


----------



## waterbottle (14 September 2022)

Is it too early to panic? The last time nasdaq was down 5% was when corona became a global issue...


----------



## qldfrog (14 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Is it too early to panic? The last time nasdaq was down 5% was when corona became a global issue...



No, good timing to revive the thread.
Bad timing that 22nd holiday, as we should see clearer in a week


----------



## Sean K (14 September 2022)

I think I’m going to take the dog for a long walk today from about 9.50. See you tomorrow. 🍻


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 September 2022)

Sean K said:


> I think I’m going to take the dog for a long walk today from about 9.50. See you tomorrow. 🍻




I've got a book or three I've been meaning to finish reading. See you tomorrow. 



> Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend, inside of a dog it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx.




gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've got a book or three I've been meaning to finish reading. See you tomorrow. gg



*2*% _? I don't even get out of bed for 2%.  

"... unexpectedly hot inflation reading virtually assured markets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 0.75% next week. Wall Street then began to weigh the chance that the Fed might make a more dramatic statement....." Tech in US led the charge (over the cliff); and am glad to see Bitcoin take a pasting_

ASX futures down 166 points or 2.37 per cent to 6843

AUD -2.3% to 67.31 US cents
Bitcoin -9.6% to $US20,275
On Wall St: Dow -3.9% ; S&P 500 -4.3% ; Nasdaq -5.2%
In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.7% ; FTSE -1.2% ; CAC -1.4% ; DAX -1.6%
Spot gold -1.2% to $US1704.57/oz
Brent crude -1% to $US93.04 a barrel
Iron ore +2.3% to $US104.25 a tonne
10-year yield: US 3.42% ; Australia 3.57% ; Germany 1.72%


----------



## eskys (14 September 2022)

All sectors down but utilities and energy doing better than the rest.

Greenback will put pressure on gold and mining, I think, and interest rate next week in US.

Edit: all sectors down,  https://www.cnbc.com/sectors/

VIX up


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> ASX futures down 166 points or 2.37 per cent to 6843




and an orderly descent at open


----------



## waterbottle (14 September 2022)

2.7% down is huge for asx


----------



## Value Collector (14 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> 2.7% down is huge for asx



In context though, its higher now than it was last Thursday, So its not really that huge.

If you had logged out of your trading account last Wednesday and logged back in today you would probably be smiling, its easy to read to much into market fluctuations.


----------



## CityIndex (14 September 2022)

At the moment, the ASX200 is echoing the S&P500’s overnight move, erasing 3 sessions of gains, but holding above last week’s lows.

It will be interesting to see what the follow-up reaction is in the US today, as speculation on the Fed’s rate hike path will likely play a key role in near-term direction for global markets. Will the Fed maintain an aggressive pace of tightening over the coming months, or is there still scope for them to pivot after next week’s FOMC Meeting?

All trading carries risk, especially given the variety of other fundamental factors influencing currently influencing investor sentiment. However, this could help determine whether the market finds support around last week’s lows, or if its break below and targets a retest of the June low.


----------



## grant7 (14 September 2022)

If one was of the opinion that the S&P 500 was going to hit new yearly lows eg. low 3000s late next month (as theres a partial eclipse due then..) and one wanted to place a short on the ASX stock market. (Buy put options).
 Could anyone please suggest what stock on the ASX would likely decline the most or at least in line with the US S&P 500. Or a ETF.  
 But Im after something with American expiry system (ie. can settle any date not a fixed date like the european option system)  So unfortunately the ASX200 index is not suitable as it only has European fixed date expiry options.
Thanks!


----------



## wayneL (14 September 2022)

One swallow does not a summer make.


Interpret as you will.


----------



## Value Collector (14 September 2022)

wayneL said:


> One swallow does not a summer make.
> 
> 
> Interpret as you will.



a wise man once said  

*"The ice we skate is getting pretty thin
The water's getting warm so you might as well swim"*


----------



## divs4ever (14 September 2022)

Value Collector said:


> a wise man once said
> 
> *"The ice we skate is getting pretty thin
> The water's getting warm so you might as well swim"*



 sadly  , it is looking  more like someone is setting up a cooking fire on that thin patch of ice


----------



## wayneL (16 September 2022)

wayneL said:


> One swallow does not a summer make.



Trivia: the swallows arrive, and leave San Juan Capistrano on the same day every year... and October is only a couple of weeks away.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 September 2022)

Value Collector said:


> a wise man once said
> 
> *"The ice we skate is getting pretty thin
> The water's getting warm so you might as well swim"*



I've posted the song with those lyrics in the music thread.


----------



## waterbottle (23 September 2022)

Friday dump day lives on... 2.3% down so far


----------



## brerwallabi (23 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Friday dump day lives on... 2.3% down so far



Making up for no yesterday.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Friday dump day lives on... 2.3% down so far



It's on for one and all. Monday looking "_interesting"_

Headlines on Saturday morning:

*US stocks fell, with the Dow briefly shedding more than 800 points, as investors rushed to sell. Oil plunged, gold fell. $A near US65.25¢.*

European stocks benchmark sinks into bear market​
Larry Summers warns pound may tumble below $US1 on ‘naive’ UK policies​
Investors flee as UK bets the lot on tax cuts, massive borrowing​


----------



## waterbottle (24 September 2022)

I'm going to be using the weekend to practise the brace position for ASX come Monday...


----------



## gartley (24 September 2022)

Bearishly we continue...... And it ain't over yet.  We should get a bounce at obvious support maybe on the daily or weekly chart and then wait for the capitualtion move down to test the pandemic lows. God bless you Robert Prechter who has shown what is really driving long term cycles. Natures law ( Fibonacci Time cycles and it can't be any other way).  Great call on the stock market, interest rates and commodities from 2 years back. The following chart exhibits an interesting pattern of trend shown to me by Bill Mclaren. Three lower high off the peak, ie wave 3 of 3 of 3 in EW jargon...





Enjoy the volatility, large ranges and short term trades. Trades everywhere...

Timewise based on cycles we should get a low about mid next year although that may not be a price low but a cycle low. When I say cycle low if we get a capitulation move down in October then market will probably bounce sharply for a bottom but after a period of months will drift back lower and re test the lows but not make a new low or a false break low.
I have been following some JM Hurst/Eliades Cycles analysis. Based on the 20W Nominal cycle the SPX is projected lower to 3335/3357. After this is met, the market can do 3 things:  1/slice through it, 2/reverse and give a new upward (smaller) projection, 3/ consolidate and pause the downtrend and then give a new downward loop projection.  However at this point in time the only projection are downward and the only one active is the 20W. This is where is gets relly interesting because the offsets for the 4  year cycle are at approx 3451 and crossed *and it will be if 20W projection of 3335/3359 is met* giving a new nominal 4 year cycle projection of around 2000.






On a side note, someone in this forum who shall remain nameless and liked to tout a useless trading system which only they understood, said we should only ever buy bank stocks..... Yeah good luck with that.....  So goes CBA and the big four so will the Australian Property market in the same direction!! Don't hold anything but cash, or short plays atm. Especially cash because the buying opportunity of a lifetime will be on the  horizon soon...  But I doubt here will be as many ppl interested as for example the last 25 years. There will be too much fear, only the contrarians will be picking up the piecees!


----------



## waterbottle (24 September 2022)

@gartley why is the low projected to be at the mid of 2023? Is that because it's coinciding with the peak of the Fed rate hike cycle? Have you accounted for the fact that the Fed is also planning to keep rates high for a period of time - this would presumably make equities far less attractive compared to fixed interest products. 
Then of course we'd need to keep in mind that this could all change if inflation surprises downwards.... More likely to happen if crude remains low + housing starts to fall


----------



## gartley (24 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> @gartley why is the low projected to be at the mid of 2023? Is that because it's coinciding with the peak of the Fed rate hike cycle? Have you accounted for the fact that the Fed is also planning to keep rates high for a period of time - this would presumably make equities far less attractive compared to fixed interest products.
> Then of course we'd need to keep in mind that this could all change if inflation surprises downwards.... More likely to happen if crude remains low + housing starts to fall



I can't say much about the fed it's not my thing. The time cycle projection is from Lars and the foundation for the study of cycles. We need to be careful here as I mentioned before, because a cycle low does not  always coincide with a price low. That low in 2023 won't be the final low but only a big b wave rally. I think we have to look at things from a long term basis.  1/ This will probably be a long term bear market, 2/ there will be tradeable rallies ( may of them) in this bear market. A tradeable rally will happen very fast and a stock that was trading at a certain level and has fallen substially has the potential to double or triple your investement quickly. *My 2c worth is that this market will find an ultimate low at the same level somewhere near the previous 4th wave of one less degree which was near the GFC low at 3000/3100. That goes the the same with the property market too. It will a long one.*

Look at the nikkei bear market chart below of a real long term bear market and the types of rallies to expect in US stocks. At this point in time as mentioned if the 4Yr cycle projection is activated things are not good. As an example of how useful these cycle projections are, look at the cycles met in the pandemic selloff and recovery below:



 We need to be patient and IF the market does what the projection model suggests ( meet a level) THEN look to momentum indicators and dynamic cycles to validate a trade or entry.  The same as the pandemic low:


----------



## mullokintyre (27 September 2022)

What's that sound I  hear?
The reverberations  of rebounding dead feline.
Mick


----------



## Value Collector (27 September 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> What's that sound I  hear?
> The reverberations  of rebounding dead feline.
> Mick



They have 9 lives though 😅, so it might not be dead 💀 hahaha


----------



## mullokintyre (27 September 2022)

All nine lives were used up in 1929.



Value Collector said:


> They have 9 lives though 😅, so it might not be dead 💀 hahaha



Mick


----------



## Country Lad (30 September 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> The reverberations  of rebounding dead feline.
> Mick



The rebounding was minimalist. 

Wall Street drops back to lowest since 2020 as fear returns​


----------



## CityIndex (30 September 2022)

Country Lad said:


> The rebounding was minimalist.
> 
> Wall Street drops back to lowest since 2020 as fear returns​



It hit the lowest level in nearly 2 years, but it could be worth noting the S&P500 has pared losses during both dips to new lows this week to close above the June lows. Potentially a sign of stocks finding demand around these levels? 

All trading carries risk, and although the fundamentals are not supportive of total shift in momentum and sustained rebound, perhaps market is looking to base for the near-term.


----------



## So_Cynical (30 September 2022)

I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.


----------



## divs4ever (30 September 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.



won't be much trading if Russia uses nukes  , the chances are they would multiple launch  that's  something over 2000 warheads  plus some other nasty stuff basically used as decoys  ( they know NATO will NOT use discipline or precision   so will  throw all the dice and see how many Russians survive )


----------



## qldfrog (30 September 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.



My own view is we have (our economies) failed completely to fix gfc issues.
We introduce inflation, extended the debts to obscene levels ,remove any fighting spirit with the covid scam and destroyed value in our currency.
Going back to gfc levels ..plus inflation..lets say 20 % is the least we could do..in the last decade, we have also further destroyed our economic infrastructure, the population time bomb has worsen: older western population, exploding population in the 3rd world, rarer energy..energy is economy, never forget that and self suicide in term of dreamland green economy for Europe which is now a failed power.
Take gfc lows, multiply by 1.2, any index above remains overvalued.
Only way these figures will not be reached is if fiat currencies collapse..which is quite likely. 
So yes we might fall just to 1.5 gfc lows but then your loaf of bread will be $20 AUD..


----------



## Value Collector (30 September 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.



Me either, except for maybe really high interest rates, but with most of the world edging towards recession, I don’t think super high interest rates will be necessary.


----------



## So_Cynical (30 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> My own view is we have (our economies) failed completely to fix gfc issues.



I agree with the above, what was missing was inflation to inflate away the debt, so now we have inflation and interest rates heading back to normal levels, i think we can fall a bit more but more like COVID low not GFC.


----------



## CityIndex (30 September 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Me either, except for maybe really high interest rates, but with most of the world edging towards recession, I don’t think super high interest rates will be necessary.



This is a great point. Economic data around the world is already signalling a significant slowdown, and if/when we start to see recessions kick-in and inflation ease as a result, central bank's would be expected to loosen monetary conditions in an effort to stimulate economies and markets. 

Of course, with a lot of the CB's vowing to continue tightening until inflation is within target, albeit at the expense of growth, there is still a lot of downside risk in the market.


----------



## Gunnerguy (30 September 2022)

What happened at 12.45pm ?
Drop if 60 points straight down since then ??
Gunnerguy


----------



## gartley (30 September 2022)

It did what it's been doing the last 6 months and has a lot further down to go....


----------



## Gunnerguy (30 September 2022)

Goo


gartley said:


> It did what it's been doing the last 6 months and has a lot further down to go....



Good observation, any reasoning ?
Gunnerguy


----------



## waterbottle (1 October 2022)

I've been thinking lately - What's going to happen once we hit bottom? What will push CBers to stimulate again?


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> What will push CBers to stimulate again?



Either inflation comes right down or there's a major financial crisis perceived to be more threatening than inflation itself.


----------



## divs4ever (2 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> I've been thinking lately - What's going to happen once we hit bottom? What will push CBers to stimulate again?



 well my competition selection of GEAR was primarily a bet on the US pivoting ( stimulating ) once more before the mid-term elections  

 some CBs have already intervened recently  ( UK and Japan for two ) and extra stress looks likely during the coming Northern hemisphere winter 

 but just because i think this will happen , doesn't guarantee it will 

 this ( northern ) winter was effectively planned  but are they ready for the public push-back , that public push-back  may push a return ( temporarily ) to stimulus ,

 so far most CBs have been picking winners ( have those winners repaired their balance sheets yet )


----------



## qldfrog (2 October 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Either inflation comes right down or there's a major financial crisis perceived to be more threatening than inflation itself.



Or just a mid term catastrophic result for the democrats in the US?


----------



## divs4ever (2 October 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Or just a mid term catastrophic result for the democrats in the US?



 what would you call 'catastrophic '  .. a HEAVY loss ( many factor in a loss already ) or a win  .. when they have to squarely face the consequences of their policy decisions  .. surely life would be very uncomfortable if the Hispanic  community completely turned on them after the mid-terms ( because they are a fair  part of the middle class )


----------



## qldfrog (2 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> what would you call 'catastrophic '  .. a HEAVY loss ( many factor in a loss already ) or a win  .. when they have to squarely face the consequences of their policy decisions  .. surely life would be very uncomfortable if the Hispanic  community completely turned on them after the mid-terms ( because they are a fair  part of the middle class )



A loss for the currently ruling democrats..kas6t label just a name obviously..


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## gartley (2 October 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Goo
> 
> Good observation, any reasoning ?
> Gunnerguy



Refer to earlier postings in this thread.. ..


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## InsvestoBoy (12 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> The odds on my thesis of a traditional sept-oct crash just shortened overnight.
> 
> Place yer bets, boys






wayneL said:


> My ridiculous end of year XJO prediction suddenly looking achievable... *Might* be in for the trophy instead of the wooden spoon




🥄


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## Value Collector (12 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> If I had to guess, I would say we will follow the USA down on Monday, but whether its a week or a month away, the market is going to accept that the feds actions are in its best interests, and the stock market will stabilise as people realise that there is no better place to store their capital.
> 
> I reckon by the end of the year the market will be above 7500 and inflation would have stabilised as a combination of central bank actions and trade normalisations work their way through.




Maybe we are heading towards my prediction I made at the same time you made yours @wayneL  😄 (who knows though).

It does go to show, negative sentiment can turn on a dime.


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## wayneL (12 November 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> 🥄



Nice to know you've been thinking of me, bro. 

But I will point out that my original end of year prediction was a very long odds chance, hence my prediction of possibly the wooden spoon.

No soup for you.


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## divs4ever (12 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Nice to know you've been thinking of me, bro.
> 
> But I will point out that my original end of year prediction was a very long odds chance, hence my prediction of possibly the wooden spoon.
> 
> No soup for you.



 well my prediction ( guess ) of 5 thousand something  is looking like a tough ask now , but NOT impossible  , i see hints of 'the virus ' returning  maybe they get it at COP 27  or maybe the G20 

 good luck everyone


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## Sean K (24 November 2022)

We're just about to push through the half way line of the 10 year chanel. Bear trap?


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