# General Market Outlook 2006



## RichKid (10 January 2006)

A bullish article to get us going on what to expect for 2006:


> The year ahead with Alan Kohler
> 
> Has Australia's golden run ended? After three years of beating the world by investing locally, is it time for investors to leave home? No, says Alan Kohler, publisher of independent investment newsletter, Eureka Report, and commentator with the ABC and John Fairfax. The Australian market is likely to keep producing good returns and to at least be a world-matcher, if not a world-beater (apart from the all-conquering Japanese sharemarket).
> 
> ...


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## brerwallabi (11 January 2006)

Three words
Zinc and Gold
See you all Dec31 2006


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## wayneL (11 January 2006)

I'm still an Ãœberbear

But I think Brer's on the right track.


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## michael_selway (11 January 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Three words
> Zinc and Gold
> See you all Dec31 2006




I agree with that!

End of 2006:  Gold 650+, Zinc 2300+, Silver 10+

Also Silver is inline with Gold I believe? ZFX has all 3 and unhedged!


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## wayneL (11 January 2006)

For your perusal:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...B22-48C7-B0D4-11CB7D59F621}&siteid=mktw&dist=



> Meltdown in 2006? Cast your vote!
> The 'survivability of mankind' is at stake: are you ready?
> 
> ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "This is the first scenario I've seen where I question the survivability of mankind," said Richard Rainwater in a recent Fortune interview. He's No. 112 on the Forbes 400 list of America's richest, worth $2.3 billion made in oil and real estate: "Most people invest and then sit around worrying what the next blowup will be. I do the opposite. I wait for the blowup, then invest......."


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## Milk Man (11 January 2006)

I think this is the most important part to note  .




> *20 triggers for the coming collapse
> 
> Oil & energy as the trigger. Warnings: Crude at new records. Gas-guzzlers still feeding big egos. GM, Ford troubles. New political dangers: Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia's natural gas threats to Ukraine.
> Foreign trade deficit as a trigger. Warnings: Recent monthly deficits top $65 billion. This year's deficit will beat 2004's $617 billion. Foreigners now own $2.5 trillion of America.
> ...


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## michael_selway (11 January 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> For your perusal:
> 
> Meltdown in 2006? Cast your vote!
> The 'survivability of mankind' is at stake: are you ready?
> ...




Hi Waynel, thanks for that

I agree with the Bear Market, but IMO i think it will be in 2008 (after Beijing Olympics). Dow will be around 12000+, All Ords around 5200+. Both will lose atleast 30%+ and last for at least a year or 2. Resource bubble bursts and commodity prices come back down to reasonable levels. All those 20 reasons will apply to the 2008 Bear Market also.

But before the Bear Market, there are still superior gains to be made, so dont miss out as these wealth creaton opportunites are rare.

Thanks

MS


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## GreatPig (29 January 2006)

Some interesting confluence in the XAO.

The last two major corrections were about 6 months apart. Six months again from the last one will be around late March - early April.

The time between consolidation periods of the current uptrend has been about 1.5 months. That amount of time again from the last one will be around early March.

Breakouts from the last major low and following consolidation periods have been on the 200 point levels (4400, 4600, and 4800). The last one formed a micro-triangle, which might imply a half-way point between the previous one and the next one. Both indicate the next consolidation might be at the significant 5000 level.

So by turning the tea leaves a few times and checking the alignment of the stars, I predict the 5000 level will be reached in early to mid March with a significant correction after that in late March or early April .

Which just happens to be when I'll be holidaying in Japan, and will most likely have sold out all my trading portfolio since I probably won't be able to watch things while I'm away.

Now, if everything can just go to plan, I should be nicely cashed up during the next significant correction .

Cheers,
GP


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## johnno261 (29 January 2006)

As per my post last year to Wayne L, I too think a correction at the end of March/April.
As for a crash, I dont think so until 2007 last quarter or early 2008.


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## michael_selway (29 January 2006)

johnno261 said:
			
		

> As per my post last year to Wayne L, I too think a correction at the end of March/April.
> As for a crash, I dont think so until 2007 last quarter or early 2008.




Wow i kind of agree with that also, the crash will probably happen after 2008 Beijing Olympics.


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## TheAnalyst (29 January 2006)

Some interesting confluence in the XAO.

The last two major corrections were about 6 months apart. Six months again from the last one will be around late March - early April.

The time between consolidation periods of the current uptrend has been about 1.5 months. That amount of time again from the last one will be around early March.

Breakouts from the last major low and following consolidation periods have been on the 200 point levels (4400, 4600, and 4800). The last one formed a micro-triangle, which might imply a half-way point between the previous one and the next one. Both indicate the next consolidation might be at the significant 5000 level.

So by turning the tea leaves a few times and checking the alignment of the stars, I predict the 5000 level will be reached in early to mid March with a significant correction after that in late March or early April .

Which just happens to be when I'll be holidaying in Japan, and will most likely have sold out all my trading portfolio since I probably won't be able to watch things while I'm away.

Now, if everything can just go to plan, I should be nicely cashed up during the next significant correction .

Hey GreatPig can you stop giving my March trading strategy away.......


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## GreatPig (25 February 2006)

Okay, my tea leaves just issued an update 

No 5000 yet, but some clear RSI divergence with a possible head and shoulders forming (too early to really tell, but the next few days should show if it's a right shoulder or just a pause on the way up further).

A correction now I think could return the XAO back to around 4620, which just happens to be at the trend line across the base of the last two major corrections (May and October), also at the resistance level of September and November, and yet again at about the measured fall of a head and shoulders - so three indications of possible support around that level.

I'll be keeping a close eye on Monday.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (18 March 2006)

An article by the Wise Owl tipsheet in the ASX Traders update with a technical and fundamentals view of the All Ords. Shows a chart of moderate pe's of around 15 for the general market: http://www.asx.com.au/resources/new.../20060314_aussie_market_in_bubble_wiseowl.htm


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## GreatPig (19 March 2006)

The right shoulder failed to develop, so we're back to being very close to 5000, although I think Monday might be down a bit (it generally is after one of those inverted hammer things).

And the RSI has moved back up through the divergence trend line, so maybe we're still hot to trot.

Now I just have to decide what and how much stock to hold while I'm away for a couple of weeks 

GP


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## professor_frink (20 March 2006)

first close above 5000!
 :bananasmi


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## nizar (21 March 2006)

From FN arena weekly insights:



> Many among you will remember, no doubt, that at the beginning of the year most experts were predicting an index between 5000-5250 by year end. The recent reporting season has supported further buoyancy. Assuming the US, Iraq, Iran and China stay out of trouble, there's no reason why the local share market could not continue its run.
> 
> At least that's the view brought forward by the likes of AMP CapitalÃ¢â‚¬™s Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist, Shane Oliver. Oliver believes there is a fair chance all this may end up in a bubble, ultimately, but we're not even close to it right now. And there are not just a few others who support that view.
> 
> ...


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