# How I Profit Trading BetOnMarkets



## BBBS (31 July 2013)

Been lurking a while so its about time I posted 

The bulk of my investments lies in an international equities portfolio, American and Australian shares. I trade PUT options on it each month, against quality companies that I wouldn't mind owning should the price move down below my option excersize price. Apart from that it sits there being pretty boring.

So to keep my blood circulating I daytrade using Bet On Markets.

I use it as a trading tool to make money apart from my online businesses. Using risk and money management with my trading strategy I am able to make a decent income each month. 
These guys serve a community of more than 300,000 clients worldwide and have been operating since 1999, so they have been around for a while. Here is some information from their website:


Bets may last from 30 seconds up to 360 days and can be placed on a market moving upwards, downwards or sideways with as little as $1 or as much as $50,000. With fixed-odds trading, your risk is always limited to your stake. This means that your risk level is clearly defined before you commit to a trade.”
It is important to realise that besides the potential to make a lot of money, there is also the risk to lose money. I have a disclaimer here which is that you should always do your own research before trading 

Here are some of the details if you have not used Bet On Markets before:

Deposit Currencies : USD/EUR/AUD/GBP

Account Funding Information : Credit or Debit cards, Bank wire transfers, Ipoint, Ukash, Webmoney, Moneta, Moneybookers, Western Union and Neteller.

24hr Trading : Yes, Trading on Random Indices is available 24/7. Trading on any other market is available during market opening hours.

Free Demo Account : Yes

Markets : Forex, UK and US stocks, Worldwide Indices, and Commodities.


This is How I Trade, its simple:



I’ve had an account for a couple of years now, and I initially funded it with $500 just to have a go at what was a new style of trading. I could buy bets based on market direction, or if a market would get to a certain price, place them for an amount of time that suited me, and if i lost, all i lost was the amount i risked on that particular bet.

I trade like this:
•I usually only bet on major indices and forex pairs.
•My account size and money management now lets me bet $100 for each trade, per day.
•I place bets on the US500 Indicy, and the ASX200 Indicy.
•I place bets on the AUD/USD Pair, and the EUR/USD Pair.
•I use the Rise/Fall bet, which means you are betting on the market going up or down.
•Bets are placed to expire in 24 hours, so they last a day.
•Bets are placed in the last 30 minutes of the trading day, so 15:30 until 16:00 for ASX200 or US500.
•After two consecutive losses, or two days of the market going down i increase my third days bet 100%. This then doubles if the market goes down for a third, fourth and fifth consecutive day. ( very different to martingale system with indicy markets )
•On my account, my bet size is never larger than 2% of my deposit. So for example, with $500 i wouldnt go higher than $10 per trade.
•As long as there is no more than 6 consecutive days of the market going down i will profit.

I 'did' a graph of the ASX200 Indicy, for the last 8 months or so. 







You can see that from the last 157 days of market action, 90 days the market was up, and 67 it was down. This means 57% of the time my trade was successful, and 43% of the time it was not. Because i double my bet after two loss days, each time the market improves and goes up on the 3rd day i get my money back. 

This turns 2 losses and 1 win into zero, or even, which improves the win rate from 57% to 60%, and the loss rate from 43% to 40%. This is a huge jump in trading profitability.

Now, in the last 8 months there were 6 instances of the market having 3 down days in a row. This caused me to lose 3 bets in a row. Because i doubled my bet on the 3 day, and lost, i doubled that again on the 4th day, which rose and i won all of my money back from the previous 3 days, well almost, the payout isn't always 100%. This improves my win rate from 60% to 67%, and my loss rate from 40% to 33%.

This win rate % improves even more for the times the market has had 4 and 5 consecutive down days, because on the 5th and 6th day that it goes up and i profit, the trade had been doubled and the payout made me my money back from all the loss days.

I have been using this system for a few months now, and have not had that many losses in a row yet. Even studying longer graphs than this, it is extremely rare to have the market go down more than 5 days in a row. If it does go down 6, or even 7 days in a row then you will hit the limit on your deposit and you will lose most of your funds. The market would also be in bad shape, most likely heading into a bad bear market for that many days of downward momentum.

That’s the beauty of this trading system i use. I don’t care if the market has gone down 10%, as long as it goes up to break a downward trend. It works great when the market has a whole week of going up, because thats 5 days of wins!
I take out $500 of profit every time I make $1000. This slowly grows my account size and also pays out. 

I generally see markets move down fast, and rise slow, especially in bear markets when you can see markets drop 1-2% daily.

This is good, because when I’m placing my bet each day for the market to rise, it doesnt matter by how much, it just needs to be higher the next day than what my entry was at. If the market has had two bad days and dropped a few percent, and rises slightly on the third day, then i get all of my money back from the previous days as well, because my bet was doubled on the third day.

And with markets dropping quicker than they rise, there are more days that it rises than drops, which makes me money, and I assume this is why the payout for rising markets isn't quiet 100% all the time, because this probability is built in ti an extent.

Here is an example:
• I log into my Account
• Click Start Trading, then Indices.
• I place a 1 day Rise/Fall trade on the US 500 Index 30 minutes before the US market closes for a $100 profit, which present a little over $100 at risk.
• The trade profits if the US500 Index goes up by the end of the next trading day. It loses if the market level is lower than when i initially placed the trade.
• Repeat this each day for $100 profit.
• If the market moves down two days in a row, i double my bet for day 3, which recovers my losses from the other two days.


Last 10 Days – $463 profit

I missed trading on two days due to lack of organisation and being stupid! Those two days the market rised, so i missed an easy $200. Here is a screenshot of the last couple of weeks trading. 






This takes me about 5-10 minutes a day as i put my trades on, and in the last couple of weeks ive made hundreds of dollars.


I now trade at a high 70% success rate, with my profit margins from each trade being around 90%.  As long as there isnt more than 6 down days on the market my strategy will work. To allow another day, i can deposit more funds into the account, but im happy with the risk management i have now.

In regards to the forex pairs I don't trade every day. I wait for daily candlestick signals to enter. I love candlestick trading, price action trading. 
I also like to trade more when I notice rising star and hammer candles in the indicy pairs, because I know the chance of market direction is more in my favour.


Im happy to share more and answer questions, and if anybody can get the pics to work that would be cool.

Happy trading!


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## skyQuake (1 August 2013)

Reads like an infomercial.

Mighty fine of you to take time and effort to do some marketing for a firm that you obviously have no connection to


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## sinner (1 August 2013)

No different to the "financial" bet products available with any bookie, such as BetFair, right?

So you want to bet that tomorrows market will be up, but everyone does as well, the probabilities are 50:50 on any individual bet, but  odds offered are more like 90:10, i.e. you bet 90, to make 10 when you're right, or lose 90 when you're wrong. Same as betting on any horse, soccer team, or whatever that is the favorite to win.

If you have a BetFair account, or account with IG Markets, you can see that they offer these products in all sorts of tranches across all sorts of markets, and by the time the market is "open" the odds offered are already skewed to the same probability as exchange traded options, futures, swaps have indicated in the real market. This makes obvious sense because these bookies are hedging all the bets you make if they can't match you against someone in their book. So basically you are paying an exorbitant spread to "bet" using these products when you could place an identical R:R trade in the real market.  

Just remember people, odds offered are never, ever, ever going to reflect the coinflip probability of individual outcome, no matter how much people try to spruik it as doing so. So your ability to predict the outcome is never going to pay some fantastic return like 50, just the regular market return like 10.

Not to say that this is necessarily a bad bet, as generally academic research has shown low volatility bets to be profitable whereas high volatility or "lottery ticket" bets, generally unprofitable. This seems to apply even to betting on horses and soccer teams or whatever. 

My personal experience with "scalping" bookies where a real depth is offered is that it's profitable but hardly scalable (and certainly much less so than in the real underlying market if available), while bookies which offer infinite scale often also charge an extremely wide spread, which would put the house advantage of many casinos to shame.


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## BBBS (1 August 2013)

sinner said:


> No different to the "financial" bet products available with any bookie, such as BetFair, right?
> 
> So you want to bet that tomorrows market will be up, but everyone does as well, the probabilities are 50:50 on any individual bet, but  odds offered are more like 90:10, i.e. you bet 90, to make 10 when you're right, or lose 90 when you're wrong. Same as betting on any horse, soccer team, or whatever that is the favorite to win.
> 
> ...




Good to see another opinion. 
Comparing the markets to a 50/50 coin flip is misleading though. The markets are not quiet sinusoidal, they move in patters which is in favour of this method. 
The odds at these types of companies are not set like horse racing odds, which are effected alot by where people put money, they are effected by historical data. Historically there are many more up days than down, because we climb a wall of warry so to say, then ctep off the cliff. These odds reflect that.
Much the same way that american roulette is not 50/50, its closer to 49% because of the 'Zero' on the wheel. This is the house edge.

This method is not about predicting outcomes, its trying to take advantage of market behavior. Absolutely nobody can accurately predict the future. You can use methods to your advantage of course, but nobody can predict.

I hope peoplke can appreciate a different form of 'trading' or betting anyway, just wanted to share.


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## sinner (1 August 2013)

BBBS said:


> Good to see another opinion.
> Comparing the markets to a 50/50 coin flip is misleading though.




lol! Yes, yes it is, that's exactly my point, that companies like BetOnMarkets portray their products as having a 50/50 compensation, when they don't.

You'll note however that *I* *never* compared the markets to a 50/50 coinflip, I explicitly stated that the outcome of any trade is 50/50, i.e. you are either correct or incorrect, however the compensation is not aligned with the probability of individual outcomes, regardless of how much spruiking on forums companies like BetOnMarkets might like to do about their products.



> The markets are not quiet sinusoidal, they move in patters which is in favour of this method.
> The odds at these types of companies are not set like horse racing odds, which are effected alot by where people put money, they are effected by historical data.




lolll err yeah, this makes total sense, because markets are completely unaffected by historical data and where people put money 



> Historically there are many more up days than down, because we climb a wall of warry so to say, then ctep off the cliff. These odds reflect that.




Wrong. The odds entirely reflect market sentiment plus the ability or inability of the bookie to match suckers with each other versus having to go to market for hedges.



> Much the same way that american roulette is not 50/50, its closer to 49% because of the 'Zero' on the wheel. This is the house edge.




Except in the case of BetOnMarkets, the house edge, which is the spread, is more like 10 or 20%, not 1%, lol. That is the point I was trying to make in my last comment, the house edge from companies like BetOnMarkets would put the house edge of a casino to shame.



> This method is not about predicting outcomes, its trying to take advantage of market behavior. Absolutely nobody can accurately predict the future. You can use methods to your advantage of course, but nobody can predict.




Soooo you're actually claiming the market is completely inefficient and that your ability to predict outcomes (based on things such as quantitative analysis of historical outcomes) actually has no bearing on whether you win or lose? Please, let me roll my eyes once again. 



> I hope peoplke can appreciate a different form of 'trading' or betting anyway, just wanted to share.




For those who actually understand mathematics and actually trade real financial products, it's absolutely not a "different form of trading" it's just more expensive.


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## Trembling Hand (1 August 2013)

sinner said:


> For those who actually understand mathematics and actually trade real financial products, it's absolutely not a "different form of trading" it's just more expensive.




Yep.


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## BBBS (1 August 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep.





lol ok
Im just sharing my method.
You can relax now, no need to pull apart everything I say mate.

I wanted feedback, not to be critized publicly.


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## Trembling Hand (1 August 2013)

BBBS said:


> It seems a lot of old timers here have bad attitudes?




Or experience. Take your pick.


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## BBBS (1 August 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Or experience. Take your pick.




From that post, bad attitude.

Sorry mate, but there is no need to be negative.
Id appreciate you didn't post in my thread if it isn't constructive.

Thanks


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## Trembling Hand (1 August 2013)

BBBS said:


> From that post, bad attitude.
> 
> Sorry mate, but there is no need to be negative.
> Id appreciate you didn't post in my thread if it isn't constructive.
> ...




Or realistic. Take your pick.

Do you know what an expectancy equation looks like?


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## ColB (1 August 2013)

$463 profit in last 10 days equals approx $1389 for the month and you call that a 'decent income'!!  You must live cheaply.


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## sinner (1 August 2013)

BBBS said:


> lol ok
> Im just sharing my method.
> You can relax now, no need to pull apart everything I say mate.
> 
> I wanted feedback, not to be critized publicly.




You probably would have gotten a better response with a different thread title and content that looked slightly less than a paid advertisement? 

Some other people here have started threads about their results from trading online bookies and gotten pretty positive feedback.

I probably shouldn't be helping you refine your technique, my guess is BoM pays you something but I doubt you'd ever disclose that...why don't they just sponsor ASF directly to get their publicity...


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## doctorj (2 August 2013)

Fair play to BBBS for taking the time to write a long detailed post and sharing proof of his/her trading.  



sinner said:


> Except in the case of BetOnMarkets, the house edge, which is the spread, is more like 10 or 20%, not 1%, lol. That is the point I was trying to make in my last comment, the house edge from companies like BetOnMarkets would put the house edge of a casino to shame.




I can’t comment on this particular company, but I know the market maker that sits behind the screens at one of the biggest sports betting companies that offer bets on financial markets and their house edge is closer to 2.5%.  The problem you will have is that whilst the platform prices automatically, he has the option to place small delays on individual gamblers and re-price manually.  In practice, this will only be the case if you try to scale up your ticket size as he only pays attention to bets above a certain size (though that threshold was surprisingly small), but it will begin to hit your profitability at some point.


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