# CGX - Central Asia Gold



## Vainglorious (16 September 2006)

I'm slightly surprised CGX has not been mentioned on ASF.

Anyhow, here is the low down:

CGX got burnt in a JV with one of those ex-commie 'stans.  So sad.

Market hates the stock (assuming people have even heard of them)

Now selling for less than cash backing of $58,000,000 (with no liabilities)

Currently doing due diligence of farm-in projects in Africa.

Who says you can't buy a dollar for 90c?


DISCLAIMER: I own shares in CGX.


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## Vainglorious (12 October 2006)

Cash settlement of disputed project.  Cash backing increased from 0.48 to 0.62/share.  Share price on the move.

Do the happy dance.  Go white boy. Go white boy. Go white boy.

Company is still cheap.


DISCLAIMER:  I think it is obvious I own this stock


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## Vainglorious (12 October 2006)

Does this company need to change its name to Central Asia Uranium before members of this board get excited?

Somebody is prepared to sell you $1 for 77c and not a peep of agreement or disagreement from this board.  

However, if someone says a company may at some undefined time in the future find an unknown quantity of uranium, that deserves copious amounts of analysis.  Or we have endless prognositications about chart patterns - tops become double tops become triple tops become trading ranges become ......


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## flyboy77 (8 June 2007)

*CGX*

Stock: CGX (spiel posted by a poster on the PRU forum - to give credit where credit's due)

Summary:
- 161 Million Shares
- 7,450,000 options Exercisable @ 60c (Expiring 31st August 2009)
- Market Cap = $90 Million @ 56c per share
- No Debt
- $30 Million in the Bank
- Top 20 Shareholders = 87.76% (largely institutionally owned)
- Roadshow in a weeks time

Masbate Gold Project (100% Interest) - Philippines
- CGX acquired the Masbate Gold Project for $51 US Million which is equivalent to $10.06/resource ounce. CGX issued a bunch of shares to Thistle at 65c.
- 5.071 Million Ounces of gold 
- BFS completed in 2006 for a 4Mtpa operation
- Based on previous BFS, CAPEX is $95US Million, Production 171k Oz/year, Cash Cost $339US/Oz
- Currently in the process of further optimising the project based on the existing BFS. They are aiming for a production target of 200000 ounces/year at a cash cost of $300US/ounce. 
- Production in the last quarter of 2008

Mkushi Copper Project (51% JV with AFE http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=A...=on&z=m&q=l&c=)
- Former open pit and underground mines at Zambia. Archive data from previous operators indicates that the Mkushi area as a whole contains a global exploration target of the order of 30 million tonnes averaging 1.2% copper, or more than 350,000 tonnes of contained copper. The Company’s drill programme has intercepted copper mineralisation over a strike length of 7km to a vertical depth of at least 150m and has to date defined about one quarter of the deposit to JORC standard. Independently audited JORC Inferred Mineral Resource already represents 80,000 tonnes of contained copper.

Segilola Gold Project (51% JV)
- Potential open pit resource of 800 000oz at a grade of over 5 g/t gold based on previous work by a German company which completed a comprehensive programme including detailed mapping, 1500 soil samples, 520m of trenching, 100m of exploration audits (underground tunnels) and 2800m of diamond drilling.
- They will commence a 10 000m, 86 hole, diamond drilling programme before the end of June.


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## alphman (23 August 2007)

At 10:30am yesterday, 3,000,000 shares were crosstraded at $0.69.  Today, another 3,025,834 shares crossed at $0.69. 



Anyone watching this??


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## alphman (12 September 2007)

Up 13.5% today on low volume, closing at $0.80 which sets a new high for the year.

In addition to FlyBoy's post above:

- Market cap is $129m as at close of trade 12/09/07.
- $40m in the bank (+$9.1m from recent sale of interests in FCF Mining Corp)
- CGX = CGA Mining Ltd (no longer Central Asia Gold) - www.cgamining.com

*Masbate Gold Project*
- CGX has secured preliminary credit approval for a US$65m finance facility from BNP Paribas.
- Leighton and Lycopodium to be awarded fixed price lump sum contract this quarter for construction.
- Mineral Processing Permit to be granted this quarter. 
- 5.071moz Au resource (3.3moz indicated and 1.77moz inferred incl. probable reserves of 1.984moz)

*Mkushi Copper Project*
- 10.7mt @ 0.73% for 80,000t Cu (0.3% c/o) inferred at H-Zone alone (representing 1/4 of the deposit).
- Updated resource estimate to be released this quarter (incl. other zones)
- Recent drilling at H-Zone returned grades > 0.95%.


Lots to come over the next couple of months.  Current market cap is assigning $89m for the three projects (disregarding all other interests).  Considering that CGX have a 5moz gold resource and are paving the way to be a 200k+oz/yr producer, this IMO is still screaming buy (DYOR).


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## jman2007 (29 September 2007)

Ok this is now getting really interesting,

(I simply cannot believe how this company has been overlooked during the last 6 months by ASF members!)

Trading halt announced Friday pending an announcement by the company, on top of a fantastic breakout from 68c to 1.08 over the past 3-4 weeks!

On top of the ongoing Cu drilling programme at Mkushi in Zambia, the 500,000 oz prospective gold project in Nigeria, the company recently awarded the construction project for the Masbate project (indicated 3.3M oz)in the Philippines to Leighton Contractors.  This is the kind of company I look for, almost unheard of by most people, but quietly goes about it's business while assembling a quality portfolio of projects.

Remember that the majority of this company is owned by institutional investors, and their reported cash reserves recently were close to $30M.

Anyone care to speculate where this will end up?...does anyone care?!

jman2007


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## alphman (30 September 2007)

Hi jman,

Trading halt is likely to be a US$65m placement on TSX to complement the US$65m financing from BNP Paribas. 

I agree with you, this is one hot stock that has been totally overlooked....and there's plenty more upside to come!

A resource estimate for Mkushi Copper Project will be out this quarter, along with their soil and trench sampling results for Segilola Gold Project.  

Masbate Gold Project is progressing well, just waiting now for final credit approval before construction begins.  I think it's safe to say that CGX are now committed.  Should be in production by 1Q 2009.

PoG on the rise.  5Moz Au resource for Masbate alone (incl probable mining reserve of 2Moz).  Cashed up.  19% stake in AIM:MTL's Runruno Gold Project (23Mt @ 2.3g/t for 1.7Moz Au).


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## jman2007 (1 October 2007)

Hey Alphaman,

Thanks for the info

Good to see you're still in on this one, not too much more to add at the moment, but you've pretty much hit the nail on the head; potential upside to this stock is mouth-watering.  Don't know too much about the financing from BNP Paribas at this stage, probably worth my while reading up about that.

CGX seem very well positioned to take advantage of the upsurge in Au prices, as far as I know long-lead items such as grinding mills etc have been secured for Masbate, so CGX's committment to the project now almost looks certain.  

Eagerly awaiting the Mkushi Cu results.... 

jman2007



alphman said:


> Hi jman,
> 
> Trading halt is likely to be a US$65m placement on TSX to complement the US$65m financing from BNP Paribas.
> 
> ...


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## alphman (2 October 2007)

This baby was up 16% on TSX overnight.  Closed at C$1.22.  Should be a good day today for those who hold CGX.  Momentum is building up on the buy side, just hope they don't get pulled before the opening bell.  Still in trading halt.


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## jman2007 (3 October 2007)

Well the $65M placement didn't make too much of a splash on the ASX, possibly CGX still a bit of an unknown quantity to Aust investors, although sellers are still aggressively bidding the price up with a nice parcel of 30,000 shares sitting at 1.10

I think CGX's approach at Masbate to environmental concerns and liason with the local population will be a key to this projects success or otherwise.  I read today that a local village in the Phillipines is threatening to cut off the water supply of an Aust gold-mining company, and are actually taking them to court.  Foreign mining companies in the Phillipines have had somewhat of a love/hate relationship with local people, and it is a good opportunity for CGX to lead from the front.

Undoubtedly future sp triggers will be the resource estimate for the Mkushi Copper Project, along with their soil and trench sampling results for the Segilola Gold Project (which I believe is Nigeria's most advanced Au project).

Very happy to keep holding this one.

jman2007


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## jman2007 (8 October 2007)

Momentum building up again,

Sellers certainly making the buyers work for it, 5c gain today to 1.10, lowest seller in line bidding at 1.15.  Should be another intesresting day tomorrow for CGX holders.  Optimisation studies for Masbate now out, have to say I am impressed at the level of detail that has gone into this release, CGX seem to be marketing the project quite well.

A couple of key points here:

1.)  Average annual gold production over the first 8 years of the mine life is forecast at 206,000 ounces plus silver credits at a cash operating cost of US$306/oz.

2.)  The reserves and resources of the project are as follows:

Indicated Resources 59.3mt @ 1.55g/t containing 3.0m oz
Inferred Resources 33.7mt @ 1.63g/t containing 1.8m oz

(Both of the above were calculated at a 0.7 g/t cut-off and US$450 / ounce gold price).

3.)  Low Grade Indicated Resources 18.65 mt @ 0.61 g/t containing 0.4m oz
Probable Reserves 37.4 @ 1.65 g/t containing 1.984m oz

4.)  The construction time frame is currently estimated at 15 months, and consequently gold production is targeted for the first quarter of calendar 2009.

Arrangements are almost complete for the first $65M drawdown for project financing, arrangements are also underway for construction of the tailings dam facility and power station.  Looking forward to news from Mkushi Cu and the Segilola Au projects too, both relatively advanced projects in the (possible) making themselves.

Good luck to all CGX holders
Cheers jman2007


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## jman2007 (16 October 2007)

Morning,

Seems to be approaching some resistance around 1.20, although still up 2c on the back of an average day so far on the ASX.  News from Mkushi could provide a trigger for further gains however.

Cheers
jman2007


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## spartn (22 October 2007)

Just broke the resistance at $1.20, it has been doing really well since buying in middle September. Does anyone know if there is a planned announcement to be made today, or is it just more day trading? have to say it is doing this on some really small volumes.

Spartn

:viking:


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## jman2007 (25 October 2007)

spartn said:


> Just broke the resistance at $1.20, it has been doing really well since buying in middle September. Does anyone know if there is a planned announcement to be made today, or is it just more day trading? have to say it is doing this on some really small volumes.
> 
> Spartn
> 
> :viking:




Agreed Spartn,

the volumes themselves haven't been huge, but pushed through to 1.30'ish relatively easily once it broke thru 1.20.  I think I picked my parcel up in mid Aug, fast turning into a star performer in my porfolio since then.  

I might head along to the shareholder meeting on 15th Nov in light of the rather "technical" announcement CGX made on the 24th.  There are a lot of interwoven interests behind the scenes here, if someone could provide a clear breakdown of interests would be much appreciated!

Cheers
jman2007


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## jman2007 (18 November 2007)

Been a bit quiet on this thread lately,

Masbate looks like it is progressing to schedule, probable mining reserves are as follows: *37.4mt @1.65g/t containing 1.984m oz*

What is favourable in this case is the conservative gold price of US$450/oz used to determine the optimum pit shell used in the DFS, so basically more of the resource could be converted into a reserve once the project is up and running (63% of the indicated resource was converted to a probable reserve).

In the first 1-2 years of production, they will be targeting high grade ore, so there is the potential to generate some serious cash flow early in the mine life.  Average annual Au production over the first 8 years of mine life is forecast to be 206,000 oz plus Ag credits resulting in a forecast cash operating cost of US$306/oz, very favourable in view of the prevailing Au price imo.

On other fronts, I'm looking forward to the release of the pre feasibility study for the Mkushi Cu project due out in the final qt of 2007, lets hope they can stick to this timetable, the BFS compilation is scheduled to start immediately thereafter.  Apparently the Zambian Govt is aware of the project and is very keen on its redevelopment.

There was some pretty heavy trading in CGX on Friday, 1.3M shares traded, I wonder if we will see 1.50 reached this week, the sellers are really making the buyers work for it atm!


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## jman2007 (23 November 2007)

Looks like it's on, 

Yesterdays break confirmed, with another 20c gained today to leave price currently at 1.85, perhaps some people know something about this company that I don't?...obviously happy to keep holding this one. 

Cheers
jman2007


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## alphman (23 November 2007)

Hey jman, CGX has been screaming up the charts!  :bananasmi

I think the Mkushi Copper results will give this one a bit more of a boost.  Still waiting though, but shouldn't be much longer....happy to hold.


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## michael_selway (24 November 2007)

alphman said:


> Hey jman, CGX has been screaming up the charts!  :bananasmi
> 
> I think the Mkushi Copper results will give this one a bit more of a boost.  Still waiting though, but shouldn't be much longer....happy to hold.




Wow thsi one has really taken off recently!

But still no news yet?

"Business Description 
CGA Mining Limited (CGX, formerly Central Asia Gold Limited) is a gold and copper exploration company with the projects located in Nigeria and Zambia. CGA has changed its name in December 2006, following withdrawal from all projects in the Kyrgyz Republic and has refocused on opportunities in Zambia and Nigeria"


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## jman2007 (24 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Wow thsi one has really taken off recently!
> 
> But still no news yet?
> 
> ...




Hi Michael,

IMO as it has become clear that CGX basically now look fully committed to development of the Masbate Au project, the speculation and thus the risk have reduced considerably, hence the increased interest in this stock.  IMO, CGX are one of the most promising, cashed-up juniors on the ASX.  As Alphaman said, some news around the corner regarding a prospective Cu project in Zambia could give this one another push.  I'd be surprised if they don't start getting some brokerage coverage soon, if they haven't already.

Cheers
jman2007


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## jman2007 (23 December 2007)

Hi fellow CGX troops,

just wishing you all a Merry Xmass, and hoping this Company brings you a nice Xmass present over the coming years!  Congrats to those who rode the recent breakout from 75c and maybe even sold at 1.85? . Happy to wait patiently on this one and look forward to what could certainly be a dynamic year for CGX in 2008.

Over and out till mid Jan08
jman


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## jman2007 (17 February 2008)

From a technical viewpoint, appears to be strong support currently in the 1.40-1.50 range.  I was more than happy to see that this survived almost unscathed during the recent correction.

Operationally wise, the Masbate construction phase appears to be progreesing ahead of schedule, further exploration drilling has also interesected some decent grades around the project area.  If Mkushi proves to be a viable operation, the startup at Masbate later this year could coincide nicely with the transferal of tech staff from Masbate to Mkushi.  Detailed fs at Mkushi due to be completed by end of 2008, after initial studies indicated the project has robust economics. 

Apparently they're using a Turkish diamond drilling company for the drilling in Nigeria at Segilola, a bit of an odd-ball choice imo, but perhaps they can undercut the drilling contractors from SA by a fair margin??

Fundamentals still strong here.  Cash at end of last quater $55.6M

jman


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## Sean K (17 February 2008)

jman2007 said:


> From a technical viewpoint, appears to be strong support currently in the 1.40-1.50 range.  I was more than happy to see that this survived almost unscathed during the recent correction.



Yep, has held up really well. Pretty thinly traded...just a few shares on issue? Definately support at 1.40, but I'd shift the lower range to 1.20, which would connect with the 200d ma.


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## jman2007 (17 February 2008)

kennas said:


> Yep, has held up really well. Pretty thinly traded...just a few shares on issue? Definately support at 1.40, but I'd shift the lower range to 1.20, which would connect with the 200d ma.




Yes a reasonably tight capital structure here, 162M shares on issue.  Seems to have been a favourite of private & institutional investors in the early days.  Reasonably thin volumes for sure, could be a by-product of their relatively low investment profile in Australia.

jman


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## jman2007 (25 February 2008)

Nice move today,

Up 26c to 1.86, according to commsec currently 24 buyers for 230,000 units vs 7 sellers for 44,000 units, and a healthy volume of 440,000 shares trading hands 2day.

Pretty thinly traded in general though, whether it can sustain support in this range, is the real question.

Thoughts?

jman


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## jman2007 (3 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Yep, has held up really well. Pretty thinly traded...just a few shares on issue? Definately support at 1.40, but I'd shift the lower range to 1.20, which would connect with the 200d ma.




Kennas,

Would love to hear yor opinion here.  Currently trading at 1.97, although sparsely traded CGX seems remarkably resilient to volatility. Sellers almost seem to be able to dictate the terms at will atm, I'm sure there is some kind of quasi-financial term for this.  Perhaps some insider knowledge here?

jman


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## Sean K (3 March 2008)

So, the gap up was in response to the progress report, or shareholder notice? Can't imagine the tax holiday to be the cause..

Chart wise, that's a massive gap, that probably needs to be filled considering the no news. It's not caused by anything re-rating the company, so provides less of a fundamental floor. Anything that should have rerated the company at this time? Just the shareholder change? Maybe there's something greater behind this?

The break through 1.90 should now be support but I think there's still a chance we may see near 1.60 again, unless there's a more fundamental reason for it to have moved like this. 

I'm not sure of any other more direct short term TA picture here, except hold while it's running, and sell on a break through 1.80. With the chance to pick it back up at 1.60 ish when it finds a floor and starts trending back up. Re-evaluate according to the price action along the way. 

I'm still concerned about the lack of volume which means short term dramas can significantly effect the price trend, and a black swan will put all TA in the dog house.


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## jman2007 (3 March 2008)

kennas said:


> So, the gap up was in response to the progress report, or shareholder notice? Can't imagine the tax holiday to be the cause..
> 
> Chart wise, that's a massive gap, that probably needs to be filled considering the no news. It's not caused by anything re-rating the company, so provides less of a fundamental floor. Anything that should have rerated the company at this time? Just the shareholder change? Maybe there's something greater behind this?
> 
> ...




Fantastic analysis Kennas,

I'm struggling to find anything that would have caused a dramatic re-evaluation of the company, although in saying that, I'm not exactly sure who/if any brokers are actively covering this and may have initiated a buy recommendation.

In the last Quaterly, CGX alluded to additional ounces outside the present Masbate pit shell, such as the Panique vein system (inferred 900K oz) and the Boston area immediately to the south and along strike of the main ore zone. With the base of transitional weathering around 20-22m, perhaps this represents the opportunity for a pit cutback in the future. I'm really not sure mate, I'm clutching at straws a bit here in terms of the price re-rating! I would really like to know who has been buying lately.

Yes likewise a little concerned about the thin volumes, it will be interesting to see how the 1.90 level holds up as new support.

Cheers
jman


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## Sean K (4 March 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Fantastic analysis Kennas,
> 
> I'm struggling to find anything that would have caused a dramatic re-evaluation of the company,
> 
> ...




Perhaps these results just ann have something to do with it. Wonder which Director's mates have been buying up? LOL



> NEW HIGH GRADE VEIN SYSTEM DISCOVERED
> RECENT SUCCESSFUL DRILLING RESULTS INCLUDING:
> 37m @ 3.57 g/t Au
> 19m @ 9.39 g/t Au
> ...




42m @ 10.51 g/t! From 1m down hole!!! cripes...


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## jman2007 (4 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Anything that should have rerated the company at this time? Just the shareholder change? Maybe there's something greater behind this?




Intersting you mentioned that Kennas,

Announcement just released announcing a new high-grade vein system discovered very close to the planned open pit. Thank goodness they carried out sterilisation drilling and didn't build the plant over this: 

37m @ 3.57g/t
19m @ 9.39g/t
*27m @ 9.88g/t*
*42m @ 10.51g/t*
29m @ 4.7g/t

Mineralisation mostly shallow in the oxide/transitional zone, between 1-45m, so good free-milling potential here.

A touch of "insider" knowledge in the recent trading perhaps? 

Cheers
jman


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## jman2007 (4 March 2008)

Just broke 2.00

What do you think Kennas, enough impetus here to create another mini-break and hold above 2.00?  

Only 6 sellers vs 27 buyers! Lol, next highest bid in line at 2.04.

Cheers
jman


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## Sean K (4 March 2008)

Looks good to keep going with those great results and very few sellers. Should be support as you've mentioned pending any dramatic shifts in the market or POG major correction. 

With those grades and near surface results it should really add some further spec value you'd reckon. 

How's the MC to oz au comparison here for a developer? 

Still cheap?

Then add Zambia potential in.


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## jman2007 (4 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Looks good to keep going with those great results and very few sellers. Should be support as you've mentioned pending any dramatic shifts in the market or POG major correction.
> 
> With those grades and near surface results it should really add some further spec value you'd reckon.
> 
> ...




Yep,

And don't forget the 500K oz potential at Segilola in Nigeria.  MC currently sitting around $320M, but determining actual value cf to Oz explorers/producers could be tough, as you would need to factor in CGX's significant cash reserves and also that much of Masbate is already classified as a Probable Ore Reserve, representing a significant level of confidence and understanding of the ore body. But agreed mate, some great intersections close to surface should provide some additional ammo. 

Not aware of too many companies in Oz that could say with confidence that they could restrict cash costs to of $US306, per/oz. Although in CGX's case this obviously still represents a hypothetical, but realistic target.

Perhaps a comparison with IGR would be worthwhile here, $30M in cash reserves, 100% ownership of a gold processing facility etc, perhaps showing many similarities in-line with CGX's development and recent success.

Cheers
jman


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## jman2007 (5 March 2008)

Yikes, looks like it's on again, 

Yesterdays break through 2.00 confirmed (?) with interest currently hovering around 2.15.  

Kennas, some of the sell orders look a little unusual, there is a whole host of 5000-parcel orders ranging from 2.38-2.80, most of them conveniently separated from the next lowest by 15c eg. 2.45, 2.65, 2.80.

Coincidence perhaps? Or I wonder if it's ones person's strategy to break up their holdings and try and force the price up even more? 

jman


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## Sean K (5 March 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Yikes, looks like it's on again,
> 
> Yesterdays break through 2.00 confirmed (?) with interest currently hovering around 2.15.
> 
> ...



Yeah, it's looking good jman. Even with POG profit taking, or the PPP doing it's work, if you believe that stuff. 

Those sells are a little strange, no idea of the tactic there, could only speculate. Still very few sell orders really and with further very good news would probably move quickly due to that before profit takers come in. 

Had an outstanding year.


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## jman2007 (5 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Yeah, it's looking good jman. Even with POG profit taking, or the PPP doing it's work, if you believe that stuff.
> 
> Those sells are a little strange, no idea of the tactic there, could only speculate. Still very few sell orders really and with further very good news would probably move quickly due to that before profit takers come in.
> 
> Had an outstanding year.




Sounds like good sensible advice,

I guess it's a case of watching the sell orders very carefully here.  I've never really got rid of stock before under these circumstances, but would definitely consider this option.  With the majority being held by institutional investors, I don't really know what their intentions would be at this stage, purely speculative.

Definitely one of the standout performers on the ASX recently, lol Kennas, we seem to be the only ones following this atm.

jman


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## jman2007 (6 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Those sells are a little strange, no idea of the tactic there, could only speculate. Still very few sell orders really and with further very good news would probably move quickly due to that before profit takers come in.




Sold out at 2.18

Limited follow-through on the buy side yesterday afternoon, definitely would look to come back in if this re-adjusts to around 1.85-2.00, currently a build-up of volume between 2.10-2.12 on the buy side.

jman


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## jman2007 (16 March 2008)

kennas said:


> Perhaps these results just ann have something to do with it. Wonder which Director's mates have been buying up? LOL
> 
> 42m @ 10.51 g/t! From 1m down hole!!! cripes...




Lol Kennas!...

CGX starting to receive some serious market coverage now. Since we began our musings a week or so ago and the release of the near-mine drilling results, 2 positive broker reports have come out.

The Haywood Securities coverage is very comphrehensive, and without wanting to get overly technical, here are a couple of the main points (the full report is available on the CGX website):

Haywood rate CGX as a *sector outperform* stock, and are predicting a 12-month price target of $3.00 (Canadian $ I think), and have issued a buy reccomendation.

At the end of 2006, with A$78M in cash, CGX were on the hunt for a another advanced-stage project to develop following their exit from the Taldy Bulak gold prospect in Kyrgyzstan. At roughly the same time, Thistle Mining who were trying to bring Masbate online were experiencing severe financial hardship. Macquarie bank approached CGX on behalf of Thistle Mining creditors, and that's where the story began.

CGX have a strong track record of success, which includes development of 3 mines in Australia, and 2 in Africa.

Capital-cost escalation controlled through the signing of a fixed-price, lump-sum construction contract with Leighton.  Filminera have secured all permits and certificates to allow mining to commence. Operating costs expected to fall post 2010 with the introduction of the thermal coal-fired power generating plant on Masbate island.

Several near-mine targets still to be delineated, further enhancing the potential exploration upside for current holders.

CGX trades at a 27% discount for reserves and a 44% discount to comparable emerging gold producers (refer to report, as many companies used in the comparison are listed on the TSX only).

The propsed revised tax laws yet to be implemented by the Zambian Govt, including a windfall tax, which will be applied to base metals at a min rate of 25% and will increase mineral royalties by 3% from 0.6%.  This could have a substansial impact on Mkushi Copper, hence Haywood do not attribute as much value to this prospect in the sp as one would initially think. Segilola is still viewed as a much less advanced "exploration" play.

Just in case anyone was wondering, I sold out of this as I was convinced that the breakout ceiling had been reached. It was certainly not due to any misgivings I had about the company, or its potential. On the contrary, I definitely view CGX as one of the more appealing prospects around atm. I still believe there is real potential for a suitable re-entry into this stock, and I will be watching closely over the coming weeks.

Cheers
jman


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## jman2007 (20 May 2008)

Say what?....

A rather curious resource "upgrade" released by CGX today for Masbate, which tbh I am struggling to get my head around, as the market seems to be as well.

Indicated and inferred resources increased significantly, the former by 79% and the latter by 59% for a combined total of 7.7M oz, up from 5.07M oz. Personally, I am wondering why none of the indicated ounces have failed to make it to the measured category for this re-modelling. As the term suggests, it looks like the new figure is actually based on a _re-modelling _of the deposit, rather than any near-mine exploration drilling results.

The original resource calculation used a cut-off grade of 0.6 g/t...whereas this new model applies a cut-off grade of *0.36 g/t*....which seems particularly, ahh...generous to say the least. Robbing Peter to pay Paul?

Are they getting these ounces from the old waste dumps?..lol. Sorry, but I prefer my ounces to be based on holes drilled in the ground. The 20,000m of planned infill and extensional drilling can't come soon enough, lets keep it real guys. 

jman

Disclaimer: DNH


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## jman2007 (27 July 2008)

Haven't been following CGX much recently,

Although probably this is one of the few gold stocks that has resisted the pressure to head south, if you had bought in the last 2-3 months, you probably wouldn't be too disappointed.

Masbate construction looks to be almost two-thirds complete, and still ahead of schedule, the project financing side of things looks to be under control with capex more or less in line with initial estimates. Probably due to the well thought-out fixed-price contract arrangement with Leighton. SAG and Ball Mill refurbishment also looks to be succssfully completed.

Still looks to be an opportunity for investors to be able to capture some more value from Masbate's brownfield setting. It appears as though there are substansial contained ounces to the south of the main pit in the Panique area (15.3Mt @ 1.87g/t) , and in the high-grade vein system discovered at Libra north, Panique is certianly outside the current resource model. The area around Masbate does look to be a little underexplored.

I would like to know what the avergae head grade is predicted to be from years 2-5, during the first 2 years CGX are saying it will exceed 2g/t, with a very low strip ratio of 2:1. If they maintain a 200,000oz p/a operation throughout the LOM, then by 2012 their bulk mining approach will need to allow for a 25% increase in the daily milling rate to compensate for the lower grades. That's one factor investors should be aware of, that in all likelihood grades will reduce during the lifetime of the project, based on current resource numbers that is. And the near-mine exploration upside shouldn't be underestimated either.

The other thing to realise is that their bulk mining approach will only target resources above 0.7g/t, even though the re-modelled resource uses a 0.36g/t cutoff. So a portion of the resource will not be eligible to be converted to reserves. That really low cutoff grade still has me confused. 

jman


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## jman2007 (30 July 2008)

Just sent these questions off to Michael Carrick:

1.) The recent Masbate Mineral Resource upgrade, which resulted in a substantial increase in the Indicated and Inferred ounces appears to be a re-modelling of existing drill hole data, using a substantially lower cut-off grade of 0.36 g/t. Can you please explain the rationale for using this new parameter, and the objective of the re-modelling?

2.) In the first 2 years of operation, I understand the ROM head grade will be in excess of 2g/t. Is it correct to suppose that during years 2-5, and throughout the remainder of the LOM, that head grade in the mill will fall below 2g/t, and will require a corresponding increase in daily milling rate to compensate for this? Is it also possible to give me an indication of expected ROM head grade during years 2-5?

3.) In regard to the high-grade vein system that was discovered adjacent to the planned Libra North open pit (incl 42m @ 10.5 g/t), what plans does CGA have to explore this area further with a focused RC drilling campaign?

4.) And finally, does the company intend to incorporate the Panique Resource into the global Resource figure for Masbate, which as I understand it is currently not part of?

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Got a very quick reply from Michael Carrick tonight!!

(Reads as follows)

"Thank you for your email.  

I have only just got back to Manila from site and am  pleased to say things are progressing really well.

My responses to your specific points are as follows:

1. Correct. The original resource estimate was done at $450 gold- the updated resource was done at $750 gold, which gave rise to the lower cut-off of 0.36g/t. Objective-more relevant and it will form the basis for the new reserve compuitation.

2. Yes - first two years approx. 2g/t.  Initial throughput (first 2 yrs) 4Mtpa. Thereafter 5Mt pa +. New reserve is presently being calculated with a scoping study looking at a the feasibility of an upgrade to 7Mtpa.

3. Follow up drilling currently being done.

4. Yes we will - good results which we would expect will add to reserves.

If you would like to drill down deaper on any point, please shout and I will have the relevant technical person address it comprehensively for you."

Regards
Mike


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## jman2007 (30 July 2008)

jman2007 said:


> 1. Correct. The original resource estimate was done at $450 gold- the updated resource was done at $750 gold, which gave rise to the lower cut-off of 0.36g/t. Objective-more relevant and it will form the basis for the new reserve compuitation.




So I think I get it now. They basically just updated their optimized pit shell to reflect the actual trend in the POG. Possibly the old $450 pit shell is a hangover from Thistle Mining days? It's probably reasonable to expect up to a 25% increase in Reserves now too.



jman2007 said:


> 2. Yes - first two years approx. 2g/t.  Initial throughput (first 2 yrs) 4Mtpa. Thereafter 5Mt pa +. New reserve is presently being calculated with a scoping study looking at a the feasibility of an upgrade to 7Mtpa.




Maybe a little bit evasive with this one, although based on current inputs, head grade could be in the range of 1.8-2.0g/t during years 2-5? The 7Mtpa upgrade could potentially boost production to 240-250K oz pa.



jman2007 said:


> 3. Follow up drilling currently being done.
> 
> 4. Yes we will - good results which we would expect will add to reserves.




Well that pretty much speaks for itself, Panique will add substansial resource ounces as well as more than likely contributing to reserves too.  

jman


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## jman2007 (23 October 2008)

Horrible time to be trying to make positive announcements given the POG,

but anyway, probable Reserves increase by 54% to 3.03Moz @1.0 g/t, reasonably large dilution in grade though. If I rememeber rightly.. old Reserve figure was something like 1.67g/t?? Probably arose from using updated financial parameters such as a $US 750/oz 
They still haven't incorporated the ounces from Main Vein/Boston area or Panique drilling into the Reserves yet. Hopefully should happen by end of the year. Should have about 7.8M oz in the book for Masbate now. Remember they use 0.4g/t as lower cut-off grade.

jman


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## Sean K (24 October 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Horrible time to be trying to make positive announcements given the POG,



Simply a horrible time for any company digging up gold or worse, searching for it. NCM under $20! eeek!!!

If gold ever settles along with the rest of the world, this looks to have some good prospects jman, and a bit of cash on hand to get them through this 'credit tsunami', caused by the tsunami master himself AG. 

Recent reco by Stock Resource to buy up to $1.50...lol. Perhaps they should have said buy down to $1.00.

Haywards price target $3.20....crikey!

Long term support down there around 70-75 c...

Is the POG still alive???


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## jman2007 (21 February 2009)

CGA have been making good progress with development of the Masbate project, as of now construction should be approx. 90% complete. 

As ususal, CGA have gone practically unnoticed and the stock is now testing $2.00 on its characteristic low-volume basis. This would have been a great pick-up at 90c, I used to own this stock but clearly missed the signals in early December.

Haywood Securities will be loving this stock too, they made a lazy $1.25M through acting as the agent during the most recent placement to sophisticated investors, 20M shares issued at $1.25! 

Another outstanding breakout gone begging!...

jman


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## jman2007 (8 July 2009)

Poor old CGA Mining never really quite took off on ASF did it? ..

Nevermind, it's starting to shine through (again) as a great potential defensive gold stock - if the market continues to fall over (again). Thinly traded - actually rarely traded, since the vast majority is held by the top 20 (93% ??). Some definite similarites between CGA Mining and Perseus Mining, as both Ayanfuri and Masbate are large low-grade, bulk-mining operations. Bear in mind it has only taken CGA 2 years from acquisition to get Masbate up an running. Not bad at all.

Masbate looks to be becoming substansially de-risked in terms of construction and finance, first gold pour was a couple of months ago actually. Finance-wise, still probably A$20 million in the bank, courtesy of -the Canadian instos, who look to be heavily backing this. The mill is massive, current capacity is 4.5mtpa, but there is capacity to expand this to 6.5mpta as they have a _spare_ ball mill in reserve, fella's love ya work . Hopefully Masbate can successfully ramp-up to its nameplate capacity of 200,000oz pa without any major difficulties, followed by a further ramp-up to 300,000oz pa by 2012.

More info here:

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/cga-mining-accelerates-its-production-ramp-up-at-masbate-while-segilola-looks-like-another-potentia/1042.html

Current Resource base is *7.8Moz *@ 0.9g/t, with LOM currently at 10 years. The second link is a really interesting audio-visual presentation from the Syney Mining Club. Take note of the closing remarks, CGA are on the hunt for _another_ similar size project in the Australasia region from July 1st 2009... jeez, are there any this big left in our back yard?! Lol!

http://www.sydneyminingclub.org/presentations/2009/june/CGA/player.html

If this starts trading in the $1.20-1.40 range I have to say I would be tempted to pick up few, various broker reports on the CGA Mining website value the stock from between A$2.00-2.20 p/s, but in this climate these valuations may not be too relevant. No substansial re-rating has occurred on commencement of production, so perhaps the window remains open?


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## Sean K (9 July 2009)

Gee that's low grade jmann, I didn't realise that when I had looked at it before. I wouldn't have expected anything under 1 g/t would make it to mining. I suppose when you've got a 4-6mtpa mill you can make it work. No idea what they would go for in Australasia. They can buy PRU or AZM off me for $2.50 and 40c respectively if they like.


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## jman2007 (9 July 2009)

kennas said:


> Gee that's low grade jman, I didn't realise that when I had looked at it before. I wouldn't have expected anything under 1 g/t would make it to mining. I suppose when you've got a 4-6mtpa mill you can make it work. No idea what they would go for in Australasia. They can buy PRU or AZM off me for $2.50 and 40c respectively if they like.




Ok, so the Mineral Resource statement probably wasn't the best example to use to get my point across!  I admit it is a little confusing to follow the logic, and understand how this is actually economic, but I'll give it a shot.  

Basically, the original 10.5 year mine life estimate CGA were originally using came from an April 2006 Resource and Reserve report on Masbate. This report outlined an initial Probable Reserve of approx *2.3Moz * at *1.5g/t* using a cutoff grade of 0.7g/t. The gold price used was $US450/oz.

In October 2008, an updated Probable Reserve of *3.03Moz *at 1.0g/t was released to the market, applying a more realistic gold price of US$750/oz and a lower economic cutoff of 0.4g/t. Remember however, during its initial 2 years of operation, the mill will be producing gold at an average headgrade of *2.0g/t*. So basically they'll be high-grading it generate cashflow asap. Cash costs are predicted to be approx US$450/oz throughout the LOM.

Ok, so basically what has happened is that with the new Oct08 parameters applied, particularly the updated gold price, a greater % of material now qualifies as ore - or the "money making part" of the project. The tonnes have been bulked up, but with that comes a corresponding dilution in the overall grade, which is reflected in the expanded Ore Reserve. Remember there is still a high-grade "core", or component to Masbate, of *2.3Moz at 1.5g/t*, which if the worst came to the worst and the POG went off a cliff, could still be mined profitably (unless the POG _really_ crashed!!). Another factor which allowed such a low economic cuttoff of 0.4g/t to be applied, is probably the stripping ratio, which reduced from 3.43:1 to 1.03:1 as part of the Oct08 report.

Cheers!


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## jman2007 (9 July 2009)

Actually while we're talking about CGA, another broker report appeared on the website which can be accessed here:

http://www.cgamining.com/releases/broker_reports.php

Generally it gives a very positive picture, and has labelled CGA as an outperform stock, with a target of AUD$2.30. 

Actually how's this for a conspiracy theory: In the May presentation CGA mentioned that they were "..._currently in discussions with another gold project that is ready for construction_", so they're clearly in acquisition mode.

Remember that Oceana Gold have moth-balled their Filipino project, Didipio, until they can find another partner to help fund and develop the project through to completion. This has current Total Reserves of approx. 1.65Moz at 1.5g/t. Also, it also hosts significant copper credits, and is actually one of the highest grade porphyry copper-gold projects in the world.

Now CGA don't strike me as a group of professionals content to sit on Masbate for the next 3-4 years. They're movers and shakers, imo they'll retain it as long as it takes to reach steady-state production before selling it, retiring the BNP Paribas debt facility, returning a portion to shareholders as a special divvy and retaining the rest as a deposit towards their next development project.

They've been in the Philippines for 2 years now, they understand the Mining and Environmental legislative and political system  - and there would have to be a clear synergy between a Oceana Gold-CGA Mining relationship. So why the hell not then?

I say watch this space closely.


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## Sean K (10 July 2009)

jman2007 said:


> Ok, so the Mineral Resource statement probably wasn't the best example to use to get my point across!  I admit it is a little confusing to follow the logic, and understand how this is actually economic, but I'll give it a shot.
> 
> Basically, the original 10.5 year mine life estimate CGA were originally using came from an April 2006 Resource and Reserve report on Masbate. This report outlined an initial Probable Reserve of approx *2.3Moz * at *1.5g/t* using a cutoff grade of 0.7g/t. The gold price used was $US450/oz.
> 
> ...



Ah yes, I should have read back more closely. 

Another broker report done in Jan by Euroz:

*Initiation of Coverage*

Investment Highlights

 CGA Mining (CGX) is poised to pour fi rst gold from its 7.8moz Masbate Gold Project in the Philippines from Q1 CY’09.
 The US$168m project is on-track to be delivered on time; an excellent result from management. We expect a signifi cant re-rating upon delivery.
 Existing cash reserves of US$29m (US$27m cash on hand; US$21m undrawn debt) fully funds the project to production from Mar’09.
 Production of 200kozpa is forecast from 4mtpa feed from open pit at an operating cost of US$345/oz for 2yrs.
 CGX’s current reserves of 3.03moz (92Mt @ 1.01g/t) support a +10yr project at an av. cash cost of US$460/oz.
 CGX is undertaking an expansion study to increase through-put to 6.5-7mtpa, supporting production of +250kozpa from CY’12.
 Philippine Government incentives provide the Masbate Project with a corporate taxation ‘holiday’ of 6 years.
 CGX offers good exposure to gold price with hedging equivalent to 1 year’s production or approximately 10% of ore reserves.
 Highly profi table from July’09, PER of 4x FY’10, falling to 3.3x and 3x in FY’11 and ’12 make CGX look very cheap against its peers.
 Seasoned management and technical team with signifi cant gold mine experience and an extensive Filipino corporate and governmental network.
 Euroz valuation and price target $2.48/sh.


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## Miner (10 July 2009)

jman2007 said:


> Actually while we're talking about CGA, another broker report appeared on the website which can be accessed here:
> 
> http://www.cgamining.com/releases/broker_reports.php
> 
> ...




Dear Jman

Looks like market behaved reading your posting and CGX shot up.

Good work and yes this space will be under watch


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## jman2007 (12 July 2009)

Miner said:


> Dear Jman
> 
> Looks like market behaved reading your posting and CGX shot up.
> 
> Good work and yes this space will be under watch




Well it was hardly a booming trading session Miner, with a paltry 2000 shares trading hands.  I think at one point on Friday, both the buy and sell sides had practically disappeared. You would have to think it would be incredibly easy to manipulate a thinly traded stock like this. 

Having another shuffle throught the Masbate material today made me realise that there is a reasonable amount of near-mine exploration being planned on the adjacent tenements -25,000m during 2009 from memory. I suppose if they're confident of adding extra Reserves in the next 12-18 months, the additional milling capacity in their back pocket is a winner.

Well I guess if someone else read this thread, that would make at least 5 of us.


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## jman2007 (12 July 2009)

An article about Didipio in the Philippines, may have some relevance here.

"Strong Interest in Joint Venture for Didipio, says Oceana"

New Zealand Herald Article, 22nd June 2009

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/grant-bradley/news/article.cfm?a_id=351&objectid=10579878

The Didipio project has been put on hold while the company re-examines the scope of the capital required to move it out of "care and maintenance".

Vice-president of corporate and investor relations Darren Klinck said several potential joint-venture partners had expressed "very strong" interest in becoming involved.

The company, which has three mines operating successfully in the South Island, said when it parked operations at Didipio it was doing so to protect and preserve assets. It had by late last year spent about US$70 million ($109 million) developing the mine but was caught by skyrocketing costs and then by paralysed credit markets.

"We expect the capital [cost] will be significantly less than it was a year ago but those are internal studies that are going on right now. There's always bumps in the road when it comes to mining companies."

Investors have been concerned about the company which is listed on the New Zealand, Australian and Toronto stock exchanges and has seen its share price take a rollercoaster ride during the past year.

Klinck said it had convertible bonds worth A$155 million that matured in 2012 and 2013 and around $16 million in project debt. "It's definitely an issue that's come up in the last nine months but it's not debt that needs to be refinanced right away."

Production from its Macraes open-cast mine and nearby Frasers underground mine, along with its underground project in Reefton put it in the top five gold producers in Australasia.

The company expected to produce between 280,000 and 300,000 ounces of gold this year, up from 183,000 ounces in 2007. It would also put more resources into the Macraes site, about 100km north of Dunedin and Reefton.

ABN Amro Craigs investor adviser Peter McIntyre said Oceana's New Zealand operations were performing strongly but it faced a challenge in bringing down debt and finding a joint venture partner at Didipio.

"The concerns we have are all around Didipio - it's been money down a big hole to this stage. There's never any real doubt about the New Zealand operation - they're extremely profitable for them."


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## Sean K (27 September 2009)

It's been a while since CGX stated they were after an acquisition. Wonder what's on the cooker? Looks like nada to me.

This came on the radar again for me while reviewing the Gold Stock Comparison chart which gives them an EV to Oz Au price of $48 which is less than some explorers and half most other producers. Looks very undervalued by rule of thumb, even though it's made tremendous gains.

Exploration drilling at Libra looks pretty interesting. High grade stuff. Wonder when a resource comes out for that?

Why did they just do a $25m placement? This is pretty vague:



> The net proceeds, in combination with existing cash reserves, will be used to fund further enhancements in the plant and exploration activities at the Masbate Gold Project and general corporate purposes.




By my accounts they already had $30m cash and are producing. Maybe it's some debt owed?

'General corporate purposes'? 

Looks to be coming up against significant resistance here.


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## Sean K (24 November 2009)

Still hovering under that resistance area even after gold has gone sky rocket and they see to be on track to reach 200k pa as planned. With all seamingly going to plan I wonder why they're still on $46 an ounce when some junior explorers are on $60 plus and way way behind any sort of production.

On Proactive Investors yesterday:



> CGA is listed on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and Australian Securities Exchange.  The Masbate Gold Project is the largest gold project in the Philippines and was successfully developed with first gold poured on 12 May 2009. The project, which is currently ramping up to full production, has a total indicated resource base of 4.55M ounces, total inferred resource base of 3.22M ounces with a probable reserve of 3.03M ounces of gold. The project is currently forecast to produce over 200,000 ounces per annum.
> 
> The 4Mtpa plant was constructed by Leighton Contractors Asia Limited (“Leighton”) without one lost time injury. The mining contract for the Masbate Gold Project has been awarded to Leighton, the largest mining contractor in the world. CGA is completing a scoping study for the expansion of the plant throughput at Masbate.
> 
> ...




Cash costs at $437 is pretty darn OK, and unhedged first year. Years 2-5 hedgeing 200k ish at $860 looks like it could be a pretty nasty loss, but must have been needed for financing.

Still nothing more on Libra drilling success and follow up...

Maybe in the poo house because Masbate is a re-run? 

Project Finance a forward problem.  

Overall I think maybe Mr Market will wake up shortly and re-rate them. Really should be in the producer category at above $100 an ounce. ie, double the current EV, or about $3.60 ish ish. No idea on a DCF valuation, they're for accountants.


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## bacon (29 September 2010)

Hello, first year apprentice signing on here.

Re CGX, I noticed that there has been no threads for this company for a good year or so, but it has come to my attention today looking like an interesting buy due to current Gold Production and projected 30 cps dividend in 2011 which makes it in excess of 10%. The price trend is continuing to push up.

I have added SLR a couple of months ago for a very good gain and as they are trading at about the same price, their Projected Earnings are no where near as high as CGX.

I would be interested in the thoughts of any one who cares to reply.


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## springhill (4 August 2012)

*CGA ANNOUNCES 500,000 OUNCES MILESTONE AT MASBATE GOLD PROJECT*

CGA Mining  is pleased to announce that on 2 August, the Masbate Gold Project poured it’s 500,000th ounce of gold.
This significant milestone for the operation follows on the back of a record quarterly production for the June Quarter, record half yearly production and a 17% increase in reserves announced in May.

*JUNE QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS*
• Record gold production from the plant of 50,817 ounces (March Qtr 49,199 ounces)
• Record mill throughput of 1,728,751 tonnes (March Qtr 1,586,549 tonnes)
• Average throughput rate for the quarter equivalent to 6.9mtpa
• Cost per tonne fell to $22.76 from $23.24 in the March Qtr
• Cash operating cost US$784/oz (March Qtr $753/oz)
• Gross project operating cash flow of US$28.8M
• Cash and liquid assets as at 30 June 2012 were US$151.4M

*CORPORATE*
As at 30 June 2012, cash and liquid assets were US$151.4 (March quarter: $153.9M). Cash and bullion on hand represented US$110.1M of that balance - including the cash reserves of Filminera Resources Corporation while cash and bullion at 31 March was US$99.2M. This was after having paid the interest and principal repayment on the BNP arranged project finance facility for the June quarter of US$4.5M. The outstanding project finance facility has now reduced to US$27.2M at 30 June 2012 (March quarter: $31.4M). During the quarter, 50,000 outstanding options due to expire on 30 June 2012 were exercised for total gross proceeds of A$32,500 and 150,000 unexercised out of the money options expired. At 30 June 2012, the Company had 6,471,250 options on issue and the total issued capital was 337,775,726 fully paid ordinary shares.




What do the gold bugs think of CGX? Not much chat for a company with these kind of figures.


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