# Out of the banks and into the...?



## princeplanet (13 March 2013)

I think I believe the media this time, that the banks have topped and a sell off looks likely. Where are you guys inclined to shift to?. Miners still don't look too promising....


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## Gringotts Bank (13 March 2013)

...into the frying pan.  

Gold stocks for me, but even they don't look too strong.  

Shorting the banks maybe?


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## Trembling Hand (13 March 2013)

Whats wrong with cash then?


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## Tyler Durden (13 March 2013)

Which media sources have said the banks have peaked?


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## princeplanet (13 March 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> Which media sources have said the banks have peaked?




Heard a coupla commentators _imply_ this on the business channel. Also a few international reports declaring aussie banks overvalued. Two sizeable drops in 2 days.... am I over reacting?  I suppose if people buy on this dip tomorrow, then we may have a reprieve, but for how long?  I just feel greed is keeping me in, not a good sign. Did someone say gold?


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## princeplanet (13 March 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats wrong with cash then?




Good question, is Rabo still offering around 5.5% ?  That's up around the banks div anyway I suppose. No franking of course, but then, no risk of capital loss either.....


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## CapitalVia (13 March 2013)

cash must be safe in our hand not in bank!!


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## So_Cynical (13 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Good question, *is Rabo still offering around 5.5%* ?  That's up around the banks div anyway I suppose. No franking of course, but then, no risk of capital loss either.....




Got an email last week..ill quote



			
				http://www.rabodirect.com.au/ said:
			
		

> Dear Cynical,
> 
> We're making some changes to our rates and want you to be the first to know.
> 
> As of today our High Interest Savings Account standard variable rate will be 3.75%p.a. for balances up to $250K.




After the 4 month honey moon rate ends.


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## princeplanet (15 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Got an email last week..ill quote
> 
> 
> 
> After the 4 month honey moon rate ends.




Huh? So is there anything higher out there at present?


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## Julia (15 March 2013)

Try finding out for yourself.
www.infochoice.com.au


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## stewiejp (15 March 2013)

My online RAMS is 4.12% or 4.92% if I don't make any withdrawals and add $200 (excl. interest) per month. Pretty happy with that.


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## Tyler Durden (15 March 2013)

ME Bank is 5%.


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## So_Cynical (15 March 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> ME Bank is 5%.






			
				me bank said:
			
		

> 5.10% p.a.*
> Includes 1.60% p.a. for 12 months*
> *plus 3.50% p.a. Variable Base Rate*
> 
> *The bonus interest rate of 1.60% p.a. is a fixed rate and payable for 12 months on your Online Savings Account if your linked nominated account is or becomes an ME Bank EveryDay Transaction Account by 31/3/13. The bonus interest is available to both new and existing customers and payable from 6/12/12 on qualifying Online Savings Accounts. Existing Online Savings Accounts with a linked ME Bank EveryDay Transaction Account will receive the bonus interest for 12 months calculated from 6/12/12. If the nominated account ceases to be an ME Bank EveryDay Transaction Account the Online Savings Account ceases to qualify for bonus interest from that date. Bonus rate offer closes 31/3/13.




http://www.mebank.com.au/personal/bank-accounts/online-savings-account


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## mr. jeff (24 May 2013)

Is anyone shorting CBA yet
I can't post a chart and considering a break of the 69.50 level to be a significant signal that the move up is finishing.
I have expected the sign to be a removal of strength in our dollar which is coming at the moment - but resistance in the dollar at 96.5. If this breaks I think it is game on for short both the CBA stock and the AUD/USD.

Anyone have any thoughts around this ? If you can, post a chart that would be great.


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## Trembling Hand (24 May 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Is anyone shorting CBA yet
> I can't post a chart and considering a break of the 69.50 level to be a significant signal that the move up is finishing.
> I have expected the sign to be a removal of strength in our dollar which is coming at the moment - but resistance in the dollar at 96.5. If this breaks I think it is game on for short both the CBA stock and the AUD/USD.
> 
> Anyone have any thoughts around this ? If you can, post a chart that would be great.




still looks like a nice uptrend to me...... :grenade:


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## mr. jeff (24 May 2013)

It appears so. Might be a little too early at this stage.
Thanks, will keep holding for confirmation.
Profits from falling bank stocks are all the sweeter.


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## skyQuake (24 May 2013)

It was quite obvious from yesterday that it was o/s players bailing out.

They chased Aus for yield and strengthening AUD, and now they want out (risk off)

Note how the other financials werent hit as hard as our banks, and TLS, which has traditionally performed well on down days was getting smashed as well.
Plus the AUD falling etc etc

imo it has a while to go


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## DJG (24 May 2013)

Now I could be wrong and most likely am. This is the first chart I've actually bothered to compare with Elliot Wave Theory, therefore knowing next to nothing but does my comparison look close at all?






Or am I completely wrong?
To me (and going by Elliot Wave Theory) it's peaked at 5 already and turning over to the downside with one last little push up to come (if it goes according to the theory).

Looking forward to the replies and learning a bit about it.


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## prawn_86 (24 May 2013)

DJG said:


> Looking forward to the replies and learning a bit about it.




I think I have only ever seen EW called before the fact once or twice, by Boggo. Most other EW practitioners seems to enjoy fitting waves and counts to historical data, but not actually forward trading anything


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## DJG (24 May 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> I think I have only ever seen EW called before the fact once or twice, by Boggo. Most other EW practitioners seems to enjoy fitting waves and counts to historical data, but not actually forward trading anything




I'm definitely keen to see what others think, whether its a likely movement or not...or for starters if my plotting of the lines is even correct.

I might have bit of a read up on EW and see if I like it.


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## mr. jeff (24 May 2013)

DJG said:


> I'm definitely keen to see what others think, whether its a likely movement or not...or for starters if my plotting of the lines is even correct.
> 
> I might have bit of a read up on EW and see if I like it.




The rats are fleeing and this is capitulation.
Very significant double down day.
I'm short and the profits are flowing.


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## DJG (24 May 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> The rats are fleeing and this is capitulation.
> Very significant double down day.
> I'm short and the profits are flowing.




Awesome stuff mate!
Do you go short through CFD's?


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## beachlife (24 May 2013)

Maybe it's just the usual reaction to ANZ & WBC going ex div, with a USA drop adding fuel to it, and NAB going ex div next week.  It can be fun trading pre and post ex div dates.  Have a look at the how the prices ran up a week or so before ex div dates, especially anz.  Have a look at what anz did after ex div in May last year compared to wbc.  Is it over?  The charts will tell in due course.


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## tinhat (25 May 2013)

CBA is still in uptrend on my reading of the charts. It will be interesting to see if the price remains above $67. If it does it will remain in uptrend. One of the best decisions I made a couple of years ago when a lot of people were making the flight to cash was to buy bank shares instead. A big chunk of the portfolio is bank shares paying 10% grossed up yield. If share prices fall because foreign hot money is flowing out due to the falling AUD / easing of QE, I see this as a great opportunity for local investors and fund managers to buy. 

My only real concern for the Aussie economy right now is that we don't overheat the housing market which would be very easy to do given that it hasn't deflated much from the last bubble.

Perhaps this year the market will just move sideways between May and October rather than down! That would be a nice change.


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## mr. jeff (27 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> CBA is still in uptrend on my reading of the charts. It will be interesting to see if the price remains above $67. If it does it will remain in uptrend. One of the best decisions I made a couple of years ago when a lot of people were making the flight to cash was to buy bank shares instead. A big chunk of the portfolio is bank shares paying 10% grossed up yield. If share prices fall because foreign hot money is flowing out due to the falling AUD / easing of QE, I see this as a great opportunity for local investors and fund managers to buy.
> 
> My only real concern for the Aussie economy right now is that we don't overheat the housing market which would be very easy to do given that it hasn't deflated much from the last bubble.
> 
> Perhaps this year the market will just move sideways between May and October rather than down! That would be a nice change.




Just saw a CBA ad on a bus stop saying "Looking at investment property - why stop at one?"
That has got to be the signal of danger! I had to do a double take after all the GFC washout.

I don't know how to read point and figures but can see a basic uptrend in yours Tinhat; but -
When I look at a bar chart, I still see a break from trend. May see an attempt to get back in the zone short term.




Still have a short on and looking for 67. Sorry the lower line on the crappy chart I have cut off.


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## mr. jeff (28 May 2013)

DJG said:


> Awesome stuff mate!
> Do you go short through CFD's?




Yes the only way for discretionaries to borrow stock as far as I know.


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## DJG (28 May 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Yes the only way for discretionaries to borrow stock as far as I know.




Mind me asking which broker?


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## mr. jeff (30 May 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Just saw a CBA ad on a bus stop saying "Looking at investment property - why stop at one?"
> That has got to be the signal of danger! I had to do a double take after all the GFC washout.
> 
> I don't know how to read point and figures but can see a basic uptrend in yours Tinhat; but -
> ...



CBA  has returned to support at 67.00
Can others see a catalyst for a push below these levels - is the yield-chasing money going to keep being pulled ?


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## tech/a (11 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> I think I have only ever seen EW called before the fact once or twice, by Boggo. Most other EW practitioners seems to enjoy fitting waves and counts to historical data, but not actually forward trading anything




Prawn

I dont think you could ask for better than this forward calling 
*6 mths prior!*

I find Elliott a great anticipator.
Most dont understand how to apply it in its continuing dynamics.
once you get your head around this its very powerful.--in my view.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=461

Specifically posts.
9054
*9067*
9100
9124
*9169*


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## Porper (11 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> I think I have only ever seen EW called before the fact once or twice, by Boggo. Most other EW practitioners seems to enjoy fitting waves and counts to historical data, but not actually forward trading anything




Maybe you are looking in the wrong places.

There is simply no point in labelling a chart in hindsight (yes I know that's obvious)...but some do.

However you have to label past waves to project the next wave. That's how the theory works.


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