# Coffee price



## johnmwu3 (25 June 2010)

Coffee price up a lot recently, any coffee stock in ASX ?


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## wayneL (25 June 2010)

johnmwu3 said:


> Coffee price up a lot recently, any coffee stock in ASX ?




It doesn't quite work that way.

FYI http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81277388-7ff0-11df-91b4-00144feabdc0.html


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## skc (25 June 2010)

johnmwu3 said:


> Coffee price up a lot recently, any coffee stock in ASX ?




Employees in law firms work long hours and require coffee to stay awake. If coffee prices go up, they may take less coffee and become less productive. May be you can consider shorting law firms (SGH, IMF) in lieu of going long coffee stock 

BTW - can someone explain to me why coffee is cheaper (and tastes better) in Sydney than Brisbane? Surely there's an arbitrage opportunity there.


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## CAB SAV (25 June 2010)

Tried a "Kopi Luwak" coffee, first & last time. $50 per cup. Beans are harvested on Indonesian Island jungles from the excrement of the "Luwak" !


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## trainspotter (25 June 2010)

What on earth possessed you to try a $50 cup of coffee in the first place? Secondly why would you drink the beans that have been extruded through an Asian Palm Civet? Maybe if it was a very rare bottle of red wine I would have a glass or two. Preferably the 1945 Chateau Mouton-Rothschild Jeroboam please


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## akkopower (26 June 2010)

trainspotter said:


> What on earth possessed you to try a $50 cup of coffee in the first place? Secondly why would you drink the beans that have been extruded through an Asian Palm Civet? Maybe if it was a very rare bottle of red wine I would have a glass or two. Preferably the 1945 Chateau Mouton-Rothschild Jeroboam please




Please refer to the thread https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17248&highlight=are+wine+buffs+wankers


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## trainspotter (26 June 2010)

akkopower said:


> Please refer to the thread https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17248&highlight=are+wine+buffs+wankers




LOL akkopower. You got me in one shot ! I understand now. Still not sure about drinking coffee beans that have come out of a marsupials butt though? Whereas a red wine ........ Ohhhh never mind.


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## wayneL (26 June 2010)

There has been some discussion from time to time on seasonal tendencies.

Coffee right now is a great illustration of how it can go spectacularly wrong.


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## wayneL (26 June 2010)

...and just to really crank up the conversation :


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## wayneL (6 July 2010)

Anybody 'cept me and the crickets following this?

I short some WTFOTM calls that expire 23 Aug.

I'm standing in front of a freight train but waaaay down the track.


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## professor_frink (6 July 2010)

Where'd you dig up the seasonal charts from Wayne?

And what on earth triggered that rally


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## wayneL (6 July 2010)

professor_frink said:


> Where'd you dig up the seasonal charts from Wayne?
> 
> And what on earth triggered that rally




It's a subscription service www.timeandtiming.com


The price spike was cause by poor harvest numbers in Columbia and Central America. 

The southern hemisphere winter is known in some circles as the "suicide seasonal". There is a fairly reliable seasonal short in coffee, but when it goes wrong, it does so in a big way... like now. Usually it is frosts that sets off a bullish explosion.


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## treeman (6 July 2010)

LOL everybody knows that in institutions coffee is only consumed by the juniors and beginners, the advanced seniors all snort substances like kings to stay up and increase production. Price of coffee won't have any effect on them, shortage of powders ... might be a diff story


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## professor_frink (7 July 2010)

wayneL said:


> It's a subscription service www.timeandtiming.com
> 
> 
> The price spike was cause by poor harvest numbers in Columbia and Central America.
> ...




Interesting Wayne. Thanks for the link and the explanation


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## wayneL (21 July 2010)

wayneL said:


> Anybody 'cept me and the crickets following this?
> 
> I short some WTFOTM calls that expire 23 Aug.
> 
> I'm standing in front of a freight train but waaaay down the track.




Me and the crickets might close out the WTFOTM calls tonight with ~95% of possible profit in hand.

BTW there was a typo above, expiry is 13 Aug


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## CanOz (19 February 2013)

Higher coffee prices soon?:cup:


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## galumay (19 February 2013)

Its probably due for a rise, not for technical reasons though! 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/guatemala-declares-national-coffee-emergency-18445643

To quote a friend in the industry, 

"Brokers, exporters, importers, traders, Co-Ops and just about everyone in the middle between the farmer and the roaster are doing "that dance"'.

It's contract exchange time again as most origins have or are in the process of harvesting and prep'ing their wares for sale.

I have no doubt the situation with Leaf Rust is quite diabolical. One of the big Oz brokers is currently over in Cent-Am at the moment checking out for sure on the ground what is happening.

Coffee prices are due for their cyclical upswing. It was in May 2010 when Colombia pressed the "red button" a.k.a. shortfall due to excessive rains and "leaf rust" that triggered a major panic situation resulting in the C almost doubling in the space of 4 months. Tracking from 160 to a peak of 300.

Of course, coffee is one of those commodities where the "man in the middle" controls the shots - dictating what price he will pay the farmer and what" cost the roaster will bear.

Arabica is at an unsustainable level currently. It's can't be real at 44 cents a pound spot - that's ludicrous. Quality diffs are in the -20 and -40 range which should swing back to +20 to +60 once the full impact of Leaf Rust is realized.

Leaf Rust is a dire problem for coffee crops. You can't treat it the same way as traditional crops by spraying on the top of the plant - it grows from the under-side. You also can't easily "weed it out" because the spores travel like wildfire when disturbed. The treatment is quite involved.

Prices will rise and as usual they will take 12-18 months to drop again as inventories are flushed out of the system."


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## Skatter (19 February 2013)

Coffee is the second most wanted commodity to the world, its after oil


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## MARKETWINNER (17 July 2013)

http://most-expensive.com/coffee-in-world

Most Expensive Coffee in the World


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## MARKETWINNER (18 July 2013)

http://www.economist.com/news/finan...enty-coffee-too-few-drinkers-brewed-awakening

Coffee prices

Brewed awakening


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## MARKETWINNER (20 July 2013)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...s-arabica-rebounds-before-possible-frost.html

Robusta Coffee Climbs as Arabica Rebounds Before Possible Frost


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## MARKETWINNER (13 August 2013)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/indonesia-coffee-output-idUSL4N0G12W520130731

Indonesia coffee output seen down 20 to 25 pct on wet weather -industry


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## starman45 (29 October 2013)

coffee is struggling on the last support


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## liamstone28 (26 November 2013)

Coffee is currently over sold.  It could be prone for a bounce. Take a look at the chart.


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## CanOz (26 November 2013)

Not over sold now.... but coming into a seasonal period that normally see a little rally. After a strong trend like that though, you'd want a convincing reversal before the risk would be worth it IMO...

Coffee seems to be at the cheapest since my data provider started keeping records...thats cool with me  

Again, on the daily it looks like it needs to reject the low again before i'd be getting too bullish...no inflation here. The US dollar is pounding all commodities it seems....


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## Trembling Hand (4 March 2014)

This is a really scary chart. What effect will this have on my trading if I'm priced out of the market for my favourite drug! :cup:


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## VSntchr (4 March 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> This is a really scary chart. What effect will this have on my trading if I'm priced out of the market for my favourite drug! :cup:




I think I remember the Bulletproof Coffee guy (Dave Asprey) mentioning something about a massive reduction in supply of coffee sometime this year due to a mold issue or something or other..

Regardless, this is also a concern of mine


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## skc (4 March 2014)

VSntchr said:


> I think I remember the Bulletproof Coffee guy (Dave Asprey) mentioning something about a massive reduction in supply of coffee sometime this year due to a mold issue or something or other..
> 
> Regardless, this is also a concern of mine




Buy low, sell high! I am going to sell those 2 jars of Nestle gold coffee in my pantry for a 80% gain.


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## MARKETWINNER (21 March 2014)

Coffee futures in New York had the biggest two-day decline since 2010. Is it due to rains in Brazil, over supply or some other reasons? Some analysts are trying to tell that market is trading on the forecast for rain. Do you think so? Thanks.


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## CanOz (21 March 2014)

I hedged with some recent shipment of the physical (beans) to ensure i had enough to last out any temporary correction....


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## Valued (22 March 2014)

MARKETWINNER said:


> Coffee futures in New York had the biggest two-day decline since 2010. Is it due to rains in Brazil, over supply or some other reasons? Some analysts are trying to tell that market is trading on the forecast for rain. Do you think so? Thanks.




It might be profit taking. You can't have something keep going up and up without a temporary rest or pullback at some stage.


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## VSntchr (22 March 2014)

Valued said:


> It might be profit taking. You can't have something keep going up and up without a temporary rest or pullback at some stage.




Who needs a rest when you've got COFFEE :cup:


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## tom82 (10 April 2014)

Like the thread. What brokers are you guys using to trade coffee (and/or other commodities) with?


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## Ann (28 February 2019)

*Your Coffee Could Be About to Get More Expensive*

_Coffee drinkers be warned. The world’s second-largest supplier expects the global surplus that’s depressed the prices of robusta and arabica beans to shrink.

The surplus will fall to about 5 million bags this year from 9 million the year before as bad weather impacts producers in South and Central America, said Sunny Verghese, chief executive officer of agriculture trader Olam International Ltd.


Lower production will support prices, Verghese said after the Singapore-based trader reported a steep decline in fourth-quarter earnings, thanks in part to a weaker performance at its coffee business in 2018 that it said was likely to continue in the first half this year.


“If we have any further weather-related surprises, this market could potentially rally,” Verghese said. He added that an unprecedented level of short positions across the market -- equivalent to about 20 million bags -- were weighing on futures prices. More...
_
Here is a ten year price chart for coffee


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## Smurf1976 (8 March 2019)

So are there any straightforward and relatively easy ways to trade the coffee price?

There's ETF's for gold, silver, oil etc but there doesn't seem to be one for coffee so that rules that option out.


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## qldfrog (8 March 2019)

Maybe coffee eft in the us market?


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## qldfrog (8 March 2019)

My 5 trees plantation going well byt would need more rain now..the qldfrog family does not expect beans shortage this year☺️


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## peter2 (8 March 2019)

Coffee can be traded through futures contracts (CME, ICE). 
There's also an ETF on the US markets (ARCA) with the code "JO".


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## Ann (13 March 2019)

The reason I want to know about the price of coffee is because I drink the stuff, I trade it by putting my money down and get the beans or bags or the ground up junk. Same reason I follow the POO, I buy the stuff for my car. I will leave all the commodity trading to you clever folk! 

*Coffee Futures Slump to Lowest Since 2006*

_Coffee futures dropped to the lowest since 2006 in New York as a global oversupply weighs on the market.

Arabica coffee, favored for specialty drinks such as those made by Starbucks Corp., has been one of the worst-performing commodities in the past year. Much of the slump has been driven by top producer Brazil, which harvested a record amount of coffee in 2018 and is preparing to collect another big crop this year. More..._


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## MARKETWINNER (7 April 2019)

https://247wallst.com/commodities-m...nt-translate-to-cheaper-coffee-for-consumers/
Why Lower Coffee Futures Prices Won’t Translate to Cheaper Coffee for Consumers


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## Ann (7 April 2019)

MARKETWINNER said:


> https://247wallst.com/commodities-m...nt-translate-to-cheaper-coffee-for-consumers/
> Why Lower Coffee Futures Prices Won’t Translate to Cheaper Coffee for Consumers




Well thankfully that isn't true at my supermarket! 
I just bought a 400g jar of Moccona coffee for $14 that is $2 cheaper than I have ever been able to buy it before. Thankfully my Robert Timms coffee bags regularly go on special for half price. If anyone has not tried these, they are awesome especially the Italian Espresso and so convenient.


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## MARKETWINNER (7 April 2019)

Hi Ann: Thank you for the kind response.  My coffee drinking pattern has changed vastly. My mum used to make coffee from roasted coffee beans. Then I got used to instant coffee as it was very convenient. Now I am with pre ground coffee but I mainly drink Tea. For me ground coffee is better than instant coffee. If I am right roasted coffee are the best.




Ann said:


> Well thankfully that isn't true at my supermarket!
> I just bought a 400g jar of Moccona coffee for $14 that is $2 cheaper than I have ever been able to buy it before. Thankfully my Robert Timms coffee bags regularly go on special for half price. If anyone has not tried these, they are awesome especially the Italian Espresso and so convenient.


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## noirua (14 December 2020)




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## Ann (30 November 2021)

"Arabica Stockpiles Experience Largest Plunge Since '98 Amid Severe Shortage

The supply deficit of arabica coffee beans (something we first warned in March and later explained in May) is becoming more severe as certified warehouses of the premium coffee bean monitored by ICE Futures U.S. plunged.

Stockpiles of arabica coffee beans in ICE warehouses plunged 10% last week, the most significant drop since August 1998. Outflows from warehouses logged their 10th-straight weekly drop, a reflection of tight global supplies. Arabica coffee prices have more than doubled since we first mentioned the onset of the supply crunch."






						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




I looked up what the difference was for Robusta compared to Arabica....









						10 differences Between Robusta & Arabica Coffee
					

You may have noticed that some coffee bag labels brag about the fact that their coffee beans are 100% Arabica. Although it does sound like something magicians say, it isn’t gibberish – it refers to the type of coffee species in which the beans are from. There are over 100 coffee species, however...




					theroasterspack.com


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