# Panic! 19 dealers reported physical silver SOLD OUT!



## Temjin (20 March 2008)

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html

Crap, even Ainslie Bullion sold out completely as well until at least middle of next month!

What is going on here? Massive sell in the future markets but the physical was almost out of stock. Perth Mint also ran out of silver for 6-8 weeks, and it seem only 1 out of 5 dealer had some stock left.

I was sooo looking to get some physical at this massive dip, but it seem I was too late in the party.  Now where will I get my physical???


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## cuttlefish (20 March 2008)

Interesting and highlights the counterparty risk of not owning physical.
It also highlights the fact that markets ain't markets once they lose site of their purpose and effectively a 'black' market for real silver (and other commodities) might start to form.   I suspect this is how the term 'REAL' estate arose.  Will we have a 'REAL' commodity market form down the track.

A couple of extracts from the wikipedia entry on the Bretton Woods system that highlights this situation when Bretton Woods was in operation. (I think we can say that Nixon effectively solved this by abolishing the gold standard - interesting conjuring trick).  The comments below seem very relevant given whats going on right now in world markets.


_ Rather than full convertibility, it provided a fixed price for sales between central banks. However, there was still an open gold market, 80% of which was traded through London, which issued a morning "gold fix," which was the price of gold on the open market. For the Bretton Woods system to remain workable, it would either have to alter the peg of the dollar to gold, or it would have to maintain the free market price for gold near the $35 per ounce official price. The greater the gap between free market gold prices and central bank gold prices, the greater the temptation to deal with internal economic issues by buying gold at the Bretton Woods price and selling it on the open market.

....

What would be later known as Triffin's Dilemma was predicted when Triffin noted that if the U.S. failed to keep running deficits the system would lose its liquidity, not being able to keep up with the world's economic growth, thus bringing the system to a halt. Yet, continuing to incur such payment deficits also meant that over time the deficits would erode confidence in the dollar as the reserve currency creating instability.[8]

The first effort was the creation of the "London Gold Pool." The theory of the pool was that spikes in the free market price of gold, set by the "morning gold fix" in London, could be controlled by having a pool of gold to sell on the open market, which would then be recovered when the price of gold dropped_

from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system


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## explod (20 March 2008)

Temjin said:


> http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html
> 
> Crap, even Ainslie Bullion sold out completely as well until at least middle of next month!
> 
> ...




Jason Hommel is one of the greatest rampers of all time.   Go to A.J. MATTHEYS, office in all major capitals and puchase what you want at current price of the day.  Delivery may take some time.

My Step Daughter bought silver from Melbourne office, 8 kilos over the counter for cashlast week and my next door neighbor is going in Tuesday to do similar.

And dont worriy about the dip, 100 or so dollars difference will make little difference when it takes off properly, and it will.  Read back over this thread.


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## Temjin (21 March 2008)

explod said:


> Jason Hommel is one of the greatest rampers of all time.   Go to A.J. MATTHEYS, office in all major capitals and puchase what you want at current price of the day.  Delivery may take some time.
> 
> My Step Daughter bought silver from Melbourne office, 8 kilos over the counter for cashlast week and my next door neighbor is going in Tuesday to do similar.
> 
> And dont worriy about the dip, 100 or so dollars difference will make little difference when it takes off properly, and it will.  Read back over this thread.




I'm not going to have the patience to wait a few more weeks for delivery. Especially when the prices have dipped this low. 

Just emailed a few local Brisbane and a Gold Coast dealer now, hope they have something in stock. 

I've waited too long and I need to take action now.


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## cuttlefish (21 March 2008)

explod said:


> Delivery may take some time.



= short term futures contract with counterparty risk.

i.e. if the dealer doesn't have the stock then you are back to the situation of them relying on their supplier to have the stock which relies on ... and so forth.

A 'REAL' gold/silver market would include immediate physical delivery (or at the very minimum some kind of T+3 sort of arrangement - but T+3 is a massive unexploded bomb of counterparty risk in the equity markets as we all know).


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## refined silver (21 March 2008)

explod said:


> Jason Hommel is one of the greatest rampers of all time.   Go to A.J. MATTHEYS, office in all major capitals and puchase what you want at current price of the day.  Delivery may take some time.
> 
> My Step Daughter bought silver from Melbourne office, 8 kilos over the counter for cashlast week and my next door neighbor is going in Tuesday to do similar.
> 
> And dont worriy about the dip, 100 or so dollars difference will make little difference when it takes off properly, and it will.  Read back over this thread.




Agree that Jason Hommel is bit too extreme, but the long awaited silver shortage will eventuate one day. One day, the industrial users of silver will panic because they can't get inventories on time and start buying up to secure inventories and then the price will rocket, then it will come to light how little above ground silver there really is in the world and then it go nuclear!


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## explod (21 March 2008)

refined silver said:


> Agree that Jason Hommel is bit too extreme, but the long awaited silver shortage will eventuate one day. One day, the industrial users of silver will panic because they can't get inventories on time and start buying up to secure inventories and then the price will rocket, then it will come to light how little above ground silver there really is in the world and then it go nuclear!




Asolutely on that, have been fully loaded with my silver for 2 years.  Some have said it may even get to a 2 for one parity with gold.  That's a bit of a stretch but just back to about 14 to 1 and a gold price of $3000 would be very nice, thank you.


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## metric (25 March 2008)

just rang ainslie bullion in brisbane, asking on the availablility of silver. 
"we havent any"...was the reply. 
so i asked "when will you have some" . 
"by the middle of MAY we hope", was his reply!! (get that??!!) 
so i asked, "obviously theres a shortage, why is the silver price going down"?. 
to which he said, without hesitation, "because it is manipulated". 
i said "it is shorted", 
"thats right". 
"will this shortage make some difference to the manipulation"? 
"its got to"...

"ok, thanks mate, bye"...

im not ramping. ring them and ask them yourself. 

Address: 
Ainslie Bullion Company, 289 Queen St Brisbane QLD 4000 Australia 

Mail: 
GPO Box 1870 Brisbane Qld 4001 

Phone: 
0 7 3221 0500


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## Temjin (25 March 2008)

metric said:


> just rang ainslie bullion in brisbane, asking on the availablility of silver.
> "we havent any"...was the reply.
> so i asked "when will you have some" .
> "by the middle of MAY we hope", was his reply!! (get that??!!)
> ...




Lol well done, I got the same by middle of may message too, but didn't expect they would reply on the manipulation part.


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## Temjin (26 March 2008)

This physical shortage go from bad to worse.

The premium on the purposedly cheapest silver bullion is now at 8-9% from dealer (and only one) who have them in stock for immediate delivery.

All of the other dealers that I've talked to right now don't have any in stock AT ALL and say "estimated" in 2 weeks, but maybe longer. My guess is they will keep the premium spread as high as well when they do have some in stock.

So if you guys are looking to get into the physical, ACT NOW!!!


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## refined silver (26 March 2008)

Anyone have any idea where to get bullion coins from in Oz, without paying a 50% mark-up on spot prices? I know there's more mark-up on coins than bars, but wondered if there is anywhere to get them for a more reasonable mark-up, even 20%, as in the States and Canada?


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## Temjin (26 March 2008)

refined silver said:


> Anyone have any idea where to get bullion coins from in Oz, without paying a 50% mark-up on spot prices? I know there's more mark-up on coins than bars, but wondered if there is anywhere to get them for a more reasonable mark-up, even 20%, as in the States and Canada?




I've been trying to get bullion silver coins in OZ as well. You are right that all the official Aussie bullion silver coins have a crazy mark-up on spot prices. 

The next best thing you can get is the Eagle Silver Coins from the US. However, I have yet to locate a supplier willing to ship oversea at a "reasonable" cost. The eagle silver coins themselve have a high mark up as well, but in the 8-10% range. It's extremely popular right now and obviously, most dealers ran out of stock recently. 

The next option is to get pre-decimal silver coins that have 90% silver content. Get like a bag of them or something. Google for more info, really haven't dig too much into it yet.


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## explod (26 March 2008)

Mate of mine, his first time walked in to Matthey's here in Melbourne yesterday and purchesed 10 kilos of silver with cash and recieved it straight over the counter.  I think he rang them last Thursday.

With the price going up today told him he is a tinney coot.


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## Kimosabi (27 March 2008)

The "Official" reason given to me by the Perth Mint for the lack of Silver Supplies is that "They have Plenty of Silver, they just don't have the manpower to Pour the Silver into bars"


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## kransky (27 March 2008)

cant you just buy an unallocated amount of silver?

Surely they know how much silver they have and they can assign Xkg to you..

??


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## Kimosabi (27 March 2008)

kransky said:


> cant you just buy an unallocated amount of silver?
> 
> Surely they know how much silver they have and they can assign Xkg to you..
> 
> ??



You can buy it at the current spot price, but you have to wait 4 - 6 weeks to take delivery...


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## Santob (27 March 2008)

Time to melt down the heirlooms again?


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## GreatPig (27 March 2008)

Kimosabi said:


> You can buy it at the current spot price, but you have to wait 4 - 6 weeks to take delivery...



With unallocated, you don't take delivery.

GP


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## spottygoose (27 March 2008)

I have had a couple of silver bars (bulllion?) in the sock drawer for a while now ....... maybe I should hold an ASF auction lol.


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## refined silver (1 April 2008)

Santob said:


> Time to melt down the heirlooms again?




Many got melted down in 1980. That's gone for good now. Less heirlooms available now!


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## kennasuks (6 April 2008)

Where is Matthey's in Melbourne?

Can someone tell me where I can buy physical silver in Melbourne?


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## moXJO (21 April 2008)

metric said:


> just rang ainslie bullion in brisbane, asking on the availablility of silver.
> "we havent any"...was the reply.
> so i asked "when will you have some" .
> "by the middle of MAY we hope", was his reply!! (get that??!!)
> ...




Watch these guys they are crooks in my opinion. Will quote you a very high price if you don't check their online price.They will also move the price to squeeze you for more dollars if they have to the next day. Do your research on prices before buying from them.They are the car salesmen of the metal dealers world.


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## Temjin (21 April 2008)

moXJO said:


> Watch these guys they are crooks in my opinion. Will quote you a very high price if you don't check their online price.They will also move the price to squeeze you for more dollars if they have to the next day. Do your research on prices before buying from them.They are the car salesmen of the metal dealers world.




The spread for physical silver is still quite abnormally high. I haven't checked out the spread from other places yet, so if anyone find out more, do let us know.

However, the selling spread for silver is almost spot price as well. It reflects the physical shortage in silver. But haven't really hear much since then.


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