# Short Plays



## tech/a (21 October 2007)

With tommorow likely to begin a substantial corrective move this *IS *the time to set up for some short plays.

A few which have passed my analysis for the short side with Minimum risk and good Return. Most are wave 4 to now complete or at least start wave 5 in a down trend.

Thought it maybe of interest.


TTS
PDN
TAH*

Close stops.5% of initial Buy price.

Any more suggestions particularly those looking exhaustive at their highs?


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## hangseng (21 October 2007)

MMX
TAP
PNA
OXR
GBG
ARQ
BHP
SDL

And all a strong buy at the lows (if they occur) as recovery will be swift.

Below are unnaffected havens (just my view). IF I am wrong then the above applies as strong buys for both of these stocks on any low point.
CUL
MUN


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## Ken (21 October 2007)

Tabcorp's downside is limited I think.

Long term investors will charge in below $15.00 with the attractive yield.

Its most likely going to open around 14.90 to $15.00 so unless you went short on Friday I think the growth stocks are the ones to go short on rather than Tabcorp which long term investors will buy with attractive yields.

Just my opinion.

Cant see Tabcorp going below $14.50.


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## vishalt (21 October 2007)

Worley Parsons (WOR) imo, 

The share has gone to $46.50 and it didn't have a pullback yet even on Friday when our index took a hit, its a lagging shortplay.


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## chennyleeeee (21 October 2007)

MUN was affected the last correction, if this turns out the same then I think that stock will also fall back. Its been going up with nothing new to substantiate it.


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## hangseng (21 October 2007)

chennyleeeee said:


> MUN was affected the last correction, if this turns out the same then I think that stock will also fall back. Its been going up with nothing new to substantiate it.




I agree but as I said, if it does then it is a buy. MUN is in mine development now and will be producing early 2008, low mkt cap and cashed up with excellent resources that will develop with low capex. The anns post Aug justify the increase and MUN had gone unnoticed for some time before it went up. MUN is quite simply an undeniable quality stock IMO, if it falls I will gladly aquire what others don't see.

Looking closely today GGY has caught my attention as well, but not for a short play. Interesting post on HC with no comment today, just a chart displaying a distinct rounding bottom pattern. Both GGY and CUL went up strongly on a down market day and both look to have strong support. I notice KZL have increased their holding to just over 15% in GGY recently as well. One to watch.


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## ta2693 (21 October 2007)

I prefer oil company
AKK
SGL
ADI
ARQ
KEY
NDO
BUR
OEC
IPM
MAE
PSA
GOP
PPP
BOE
I will use bucket strategy to build my oil portfolio tomorrow.
Maybe some coal companies tomorrow
ECU
GUJ
PRC


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## IFocus (21 October 2007)

Hi Tech

Questions on open do you short gaps hoping for gap and go but collect gap and bounce?

If you go with a gap on on open what the maximum % gap?

Do you short over bought or over sold?

Do you short the weakest stocks in down trends?

What about a sector? rotation from one to another?

I tend to be more conservative and like to see movement though support and watch so the stops get fired off adding momentum.

Just some thoughts hope it helps

Focus


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## Ken (21 October 2007)

I think these stocks are in some trouble tomorrow.

PTM
CPU
AIO
JHX
BLD
CSR
NWS

a lot of these stocks are in down trends already


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## Fab (21 October 2007)

Technically BHP is a short.
I believe calling short for tomorrow is easy as the market as a whole is likely to plummet


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## tech/a (21 October 2007)

Fab said:


> Technically BHP is a short.
> I believe calling short for tomorrow is easy as the market as a whole is likely to plummet





That it is.
But with many analysts expecting a possible pullback toward the August lows the earliest you can get set is TOMMOROW.

Then look for opportunities long side when buyers come back in.

Easy eh!


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> Worley Parsons (WOR) imo,
> 
> The share has gone to $46.50 and it didn't have a pullback yet even on Friday when our index took a hit, its a lagging shortplay.




A rather bullish stock. Of my studies of short plays bullish stocks are not to be messed with. Experience tells me that too.

Tech,
Are you actually TRADING or just playing with concepts?


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## tech/a (21 October 2007)

Weakest against the index with good setups are 
ILU
TCL
ALL*

BHP is also weak according to analysis.(Feel this is temporary).


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## >Apocalypto< (21 October 2007)

Fab said:


> Technically BHP is a short.
> I believe calling short for tomorrow is easy as the market as a whole is likely to plummet




I disagree with you,

BHP looks much better technically then RIO.

Rio trend broken, lower high already seen new trend is down.

BHP still on its short term trend line just starting to form a band. (Monday most likely a fall.)

from looking at the charts BHP looks in a better situation to me then RIO.

Monday could knock em both for six though!


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## >Apocalypto< (21 October 2007)

From a shorting point of view, the miners could be good they seem to get hit hard in most sell downs.

from a TA point of view I like MBL

Down trend confirmed i notice quite similar spacing between the highs. two orange lines are rough targets but they are simple previous resistance and support targets.


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## Jadefox (21 October 2007)

The more vulnerable financials might be the safer bets. MBL one of them. BKX breaking down in US. Stocks that have run up too hard since August also at risk.


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## nikki (22 October 2007)

BHP is due to release quarterly report on wednesday (i think). Shorting it tommorrow might be an idea but riskier on tuesday and wednesday. 

I agree with shorting mining stocks generally - easy come easy go??


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## overule (22 October 2007)

Today, shares are pretty bad.

What do you guys think of tomorrow ?


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## Ken (22 October 2007)

DID ANYONE go short on Aristocrat? ALL

They fell 15%!

On court case fears, and bad full year report.

The US dollar is really affecting them.

I went long @ 11.55.

I felt there was some panic selling. 

Only got 500.


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## CanOz (22 October 2007)

tech/a said:


> Weakest against the index with good setups are
> ILU
> TCL
> ALL*
> ...




ALL* - Brilliant if you got that 15% drop!


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## Ken (22 October 2007)

The US looks like theres another dip tommorow.

BHP looking like down 3% in pre-open... a break through 6500 is going to be nasty.

Having said this, I thought a lot of the stocks were overbought.

The bad thing is that if you hold stocks that are already good value, they are going to become cheap, and the charts will look ugly.. but present buying opportunities.

CPU is a stock that has lost 25% from its highs. It never recovered from August 10...  so who knows how far CPU can go down. Possibly worth a short as it has broken long term upward trend???


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## juw177 (24 October 2007)

How is everyone's short plays going? of all the ones I couldve shorted, I chose ERA, which bounced back the strongest in the last 2 days rally. This thread should be Long Plays.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (24 October 2007)

juw177 said:


> How is everyone's short plays going? of all the ones I couldve shorted, I chose ERA, which bounced back the strongest in the last 2 days rally. This thread should be Long Plays.





As I said before shorting in bullish conditions is a losers game. It must be learned as a stand alone strategy for the RIGHT conditions. My experience od losses in bullish conditions backs up the theory.


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## tech/a (24 October 2007)

Snake.

They are just like any other trade and just like finding stocks which remain in a longterm up trend during bearish conditions,stocks can have prolonged bear runs in bullish conditions.

It more about trade management than the condition of the overall market.
Not saying it doesnt have some bearing,but to stop trading long in a bearish market is similar is it not?

ALL is still tanking.
ILU the same.

Am I trading them,who cares if I say I am I'm just blowing my own trumpet.
 big noting myself.
This forum wont see any trade demo's from this black duck.

If people want to see my trading it will be on "The Chartist". I dont cop crap there.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (24 October 2007)

tech/a said:


> Snake.
> 
> They are just like any other trade and just like finding stocks which remain in a longterm up trend during bearish conditions,stocks can have prolonged bear runs in bullish conditions.
> 
> ...




Wonderfull picks: ALL
Point taken that individual stocks have their own characters regardless of the overall conditions. If a stock is bullish in bearish conditions why short it? or vice versa. 

Nothing expected from you. Do as you wish. If you don't want to cop crap don't dish it out. Why bother if it is painful for you?


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## juw177 (24 October 2007)

There is not too much crap in this forum which is why I come here. Tech, people dont feel comfortable taking someones view that is different from their own and so they may argue if only to reassure themselves or to try to learn more about where you are coming from so they can trade better.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (24 October 2007)

I shant be posting anymore Tech. I took some of my own advice.


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## tech/a (5 November 2007)

ILU and ANN still coming off.

Amazing how shorts and the setups are forgotten


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## juw177 (5 November 2007)

BHP was going to be my short play on Friday but I put it off.

Now I am watching JBH. The stock's volume has been decreasing during its recent run up to $17 with a poor effort to breach it. Because of the lack of demand, it will not take much to kick start a reversal.


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## bigdog (11 February 2019)

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ge_busnews_am&instance=2019-02-10--19-54--UTC

*$2.7b on the line as ASX's most shorted stocks report results
By William McInnes*
February 11, 2019 — 12.05am

Investors are poised for a big week of earnings, with a number of the local sharemarket's most shorted stocks set to report their results this week.

JB Hi-Fi, Super Retail Group, IOOF Holdings, Amcor, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and AMP will all report earnings this week, with a combined $2.7 billion sitting in short positions against them.

The local sharemarket is set for a mixed start to the week's trading, with ASX Futures sitting 4 points, or 0.1 per cent, lower at 6007 on Sunday.

While AMP, IOOF Holdings and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank all closed the week stronger in the wake of the royal commission final report, a disappointing retail trade print on Monday saw JB Hi-Fi shares slide.

"We've had a few retailers issue a profit warning," said Tribeca Investment Partners fund manager Jun Bei Liu. "Its share price hasn't really collapsed compared to Harvey Norman but all feedback is suggesting things are pretty tough and even in the retail sales data, the consumer electronics looked pretty weak."

The electronics retailer regularly divides investors and has more than 15 per cent of its shares held in short positions, more than any other company on the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.

"The like-for-like trading into the second half will really determine where the share price goes," said Ms Liu. "It's got a good business plan but the trading environment is difficult."

Ms Liu said the results of AMP and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank would also be crucial in getting a better read on the financial sector following the royal commission's final report.

"What we've seen from Commonwealth Bank is their overall market and earnings are weak, so we expect Bendigo's margins to deteriorate and think there will be a weak result there," she said.

"For AMP, given the outcome of the royal commission, we'd like to see how they're faring and the strategic direction."

Both companies had a combined $840 million worth of their shares held in short positions as of February 4, although gains in their share prices last week could suggest investors may have exited those positions.

The first full week of earnings saw the local sharemarket climb to its biggest weekly percentage gain since November 2016, with above expectation results from a number of companies.

"So far, this reporting season has been like others," said Firetrail Investments deputy managing director Blake Henricks. "Expectations have been set fairly low so you have seen some big relief rallies in poor performers like James Hardie, Clydesdale Bank and Nick Scali."

The beginning of the earnings season also saw a flood of money injected into the market, with trading volumes 11 per cent above average for the week.

"The mood has certainly changed," said Ophir Asset Management director and senior portfolio manager Andrew Mitchell. "Everyone was bearish in December and every fund manager we spoke to was sitting on huge piles of cash. All it took was a slight change in sentiment and now fund managers have been forced to redeploy their cash into the market."

He expects shares to keep rallying as results continue to outperform the low expectations set by the market at the end of last year.

"It's early in reporting season in Australia but initial signs are the results are OK," he said. "We are seeing the value names and resources rally at the moment. Fund managers are left under-weight stocks right now and just have to redeploy cash into the market. My feeling is this could go on for a while yet, reflecting how bearish everyone was in December."

566


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