# NZD/USD



## Kauri (31 October 2007)

Travelling almost identically to the skippy but *may* have more movement potential after the FOMC.
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri (7 November 2007)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

Am having a little run out of the triangle from W4.. probably another lot of strong option defence at 78???
 Cheers
............Kauri


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## Kauri (7 November 2007)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

Ambling along nicely on the back of the skippy..
Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Kauri (7 November 2007)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

May just be my imagination but there seems to be a determined effort to keep the Kiwi under 7850... might be an option block lurking around there??
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri (12 November 2007)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

Stops now in close... reasons as per the skippy trade..
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri (17 January 2008)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

I don't go much past the basic E/W stage... yet... sose I'm not sure if this is what is called an ending diagonal???.. but it (the daily) looks interesting..
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## BentRod (2 September 2008)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

Kiwi Weekly.

A bounce or a push through?


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## Demiurgo (12 May 2012)

The kiwi at the end gave a kiss to the TL, and there seems to bounce, perhaps most advisable is to wait until Monday for confirmation, but may be the beginning of a good upward bounce.


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## Demiurgo (14 May 2012)

Demiurgo said:


> The kiwi at the end gave a kiss to the TL, and there seems to bounce, perhaps most advisable is to wait until Monday for confirmation, but may be the beginning of a good upward bounce.




, We consider the TL is broken, time to stay waiting.


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## MARKETWINNER (11 June 2013)

_According to following links NZD can go down further. Suddenly some analysts including bank economists also have become bearish on NZD. As I said before NZD dollar has entered amulti-year bear cycle and the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle.However there can be dead cat bounce for NZD time to time. Intermediate trend for NZD is down now. 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10889664

Skids go under kiwi dollar - may fall further

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=16aa07b5-7502-4020-9101-91395e7ab788

NZD/USD continues bear trend

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior tomaking any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites._


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## MARKETWINNER (12 June 2013)

_I believe NZ dollar will go down sharply due to new development. It is overpriced by 45% against USD. During last couple of years it has appreciated by more than 50% against some Asian currencies. Now this cycle has reversed and NZD will go down not only against USD but also against some Asian currencies. I cannot understand reason behind appreciation of NZD. May be some carry traders including speculators must have parked their money in NZD. Now one by one currency players are unwinding their positions in both AUD and NZD.When everybody tries to take out of money from both AUD and NZD these currencies can tumble to the one of the lowest levels.

Now analysts including global banking analysts are revising their year end target and target in 2014 for NZD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...finds-its-mark-as-kiwi-slumps-currencies.html

Wheeler’s Peashooter Finds Its Mark as Kiwi Slumps: Currencies

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. 
._


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## MARKETWINNER (20 June 2013)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323393804578556570635391806.html

NZ Dollar Weakens Against Greenback As Fed, China Data Weigh


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## MARKETWINNER (24 June 2013)

Both NZD and AUD went up in value during the past four years due to hot overseas money. Now this money is flooding out of these countries. That so called carry trade has ended now. Since these countries floated their dollars, Australia and New Zealand have become favourite hot place for worldwide speculative money trading.

Speculative money flows are short term, and will flee at the sight of trouble. There is a regime shift now. AUSTRALIAN bond futures are weaker as hedge funds reacted to the situation.

There are some benefits in lower NZ dollar and Australian dollar

1. Rising import cost will bring some relief for New Zealand and Australian -based manufacturers.
2. Export sector will expand. A lower dollar makes export prices more attractive for overseas buyers, boosting our domestic output.
3. New Zealand and Australian companies with significant overseas operations also will benefit because the lower dollar boosts the repatriated profit of companies with overseas operations.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## Boggo (24 June 2013)

A nice little trade in the direction of the trend tonight .


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## MARKETWINNER (30 July 2013)

There is a regime shift in the currency market globally. As a result of this over valued currencies such as NZD and AUD will go down further in the coming quarters while having rebound and volatility time to time. In addition no economy will stay strong for ever. There will be slow growth in some period. Currencies will adjust accordingly. In some period some countries will have strong growth and in some other period some other countries will have strong growth. In addition time to time hot money will rotate one currency to another.

In short mid term and long term trend is down for both NZD and AUD.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578637040713825314.html

New Zealand Dollar Dragged down by Weaker Australian Dollar

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


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## MARKETWINNER (2 August 2013)

In the short run NZD can appreciate against AUD while having some volatility.
However both AUD and NZD will continually go down against USD while having small rebound and volatility time to time. 

In the past NZD has traded as low as 0.39 against USD. In the recent past NZD traded around 0.80 against USD. Now it is trading around 0.78 against USD.  Now the currency cycle has changed and over valued currencies will go down gradually. 

When AUD go down against USD, NZD too will go down against USD   in the same manner. We can also see falling interest rate in Australia and New Zealand too will follow their cousin sooner than later just like in Europe and USA in the past.

In short still we have not seen biggest drop in NZD against USD.  

I believe after bitcoin and gold both NZD and AUD can go down dramatically. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


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## MARKETWINNER (9 August 2013)

I believe there will be some short term support for both AUD and NZD due to new development.  Even emerging currencies such as Indian rupee and few Asian currencies can go up in the short run. 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## MARKETWINNER (20 August 2013)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324747104579023951649263642.html

New Zealand Dollar Down Late; Governor Calls Currency Overvalued


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## MARKETWINNER (1 September 2013)

I believe among currencies NZD has more potential to fall against basket of currencies in the coming months. The kiwi mat stay under pressure in the coming years as well. So far NZD dollar was resilient and this situation may change sooner than later. Arguably one of the overpriced currencies in the world. If we compare with basket of currencies during last 10 years it is at the top of the chart.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## PipSafe (13 March 2014)

*Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi*

NZD/USD  in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual upward trend that Buyers over price increases obtained the highest price of 0.85213.Currently price in long term time frames(Such as Monthly,weekly and Daily ) is above 5-day moving average and warns about more ascending in long term interval of this currency pair.Price has been stopped from more ascend by reaching to the specified resistance levels in the picture below and with exit of some buyers from their trades at the end of 7th ,10th and 11th days,  the Doji , Spining Top and Shooting Star candlestick patterns have been created. These candles shows vulnerability and indecision market in ascending or descending of price that for confirmation it needs closing of a bearish candle
As it is obvious in the picture below , right now in daily time frame ABC descending pattern with the ratio of 161.8 is observable that with the completion of the D point there is a warning about down of price and descend by this pattern.The Stoch indicator is in the saturation buy area and issued the warning of the formation of top price and the falling of the price.Generally until the top price of 0.85213  is preserved, there is a potential for descending and price reformation in this currency pair.


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## MARKETWINNER (13 April 2014)

I believe finally it is time to avoid NZD. Overvalued NZD could tumble against USD. It will go down against AUD as well. I also believe NZD will have one of the biggest corrections during next 18 months. Just like stock and commodity market we could see  long awaited shift in the currency cycle in the near future.  NZD is number one over valued currency in the world followed by AUD and CAD. These three currencies could have bigger drop at any time now. 

 My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## MARKETWINNER (20 April 2014)

I believe sooner than later we could see end of bull market for both AUD and NZD once we see shift in the currency cycle. We could see bigger drop in NZD and AUD against USD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short both NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873

Flying Kiwi dollar to come ‘down to earth’: Goldman Sachs

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


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## PipSafe (7 June 2014)

NZD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent Days that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.84000. As it is obvious in the picture below, price with reaching to the supportive edge of down channel also round support level has been stopped from more descend and by forming a bottom price of 0.84000 has prepared the field for ascending of price. (Sellers use the supportive edge( also round support level) of that to leave their trades.)

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is non-ideal butterfly pattern between the top price of 0.87779 and the bottom price of 0.84000 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles. According to the technical signs, there is no clear reason for descending of the price in daily time frame and Generally according to the formed signs in price chart until the bottom price of 0.84000 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.

*Technical Analysis of NZD/USD dated 2014.06.06*


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## MARKETWINNER (8 June 2014)

Just like dairy prices both NZD and AUD also will fall against USD in the coming months.

Both AUD and NZD are more vulnerable to bad news. I don’ think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to  uncertainty  situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD  and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.Fed Stimulus Withdrawal policy will also hurt both New Zealand and Aussie Dollar.AB forecasts predict the Australian dollar at US87 ¢ for the end of September and US85 ¢ by end 2014.Three is a concern around the sustainability of Australia's triple-A credit rating. According to some analysts the Australian dollar would fall in line with the dip in the iron ore price to below $US100 a tonne. Consumer confidence is also not that good.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## MARKETWINNER (27 September 2014)

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/...horts-were-the-best-trade-over-the-past-week/

New Zealand dollar shorts were the best trade over the past week


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## PipSafe (8 November 2014)

NZD/USD was in a strong and consistent descending trend that sellers during this descending trend were successful in achieving the lowest price level of 0.76596.Currently in 1H time frame with formation of Morning star(with 2 stars) (the failure of sellers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more descending and there is a possibility of formation of a bottom price and finally ascending of the price.

As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 0.80323 and the bottom price of 0.76596, there is a none ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point (also formation of other AB=CD (78.6=127.2) pattern in CD wave), there is a potential for ascending of price.Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.76596 is preserved, there is the potential for ascending of price and reformation of descending trend.


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## PipSafe (12 December 2014)

NZD/USD since 11.07.2014 was in a strong and without reformation downtrend that shows the certainty of the sellers in achieving the predetermined goals. Sellers during this downtrend were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.76056.Price during the Increase by reaching to the Down Trendline(made of 3 top prices)also the R1-WP has been stopped from more ascending and right now some of the buyers by reaching to these resistance levels started to cash their trades.

According to the formed price movements in H4 time frame, there is a Bat harmonic pattern between the top price of 0.78701 and the recent ascending that by completing the D point of this pattern ,there is a warning about stopping of ascending of the price.Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in saturation buy area and with the next cycle warns about descending of price during the next candles, but because of lack of coordination with the daily time frame is not much valid.Given the current situation of price, the best confirmations for ascending and reformation of price is the price should break Down Trendline and pass it.


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## PipSafe (29 January 2015)

NZD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent Days that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.74000. price with reaching to the important round level of 0.74000 has stopped from more descend( Sellers used this level to exit their trades) and with formation of a bottom price in daily time frame has prepared a field for ascending of price.

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 0.79735 and bottom price of 0.74000 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.

In Daily time frame Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the bottom price of 0.74000.Right Now the first warning for ascending is breaking of the resistance level of 0.74819.


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## PipSafe (19 February 2015)

Technical analysis of NZD/USD dated 18.02.2015

NZD/USD chart has experienced a strong ascending trend during the recent days that could record the top price of 0.75574.as it is obvious in the picture below , price has been stopped from more ascending with reaching to the Resistance level (S=R) and has formed a top price.

According to the formed movements in the price chart, between the bottom price of 0.71769 and the top price of 0.75574 there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 50 and 161.8 which the D point of this pattern is completed and warns about descending of the price in this price range.Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in the saturation buy area and is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction.Right now the first important warning for more ascending of price in this currency pair happens by breaking f the 0.75574 level(D point) in H4 time frame.


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## Kylie9090 (11 June 2015)

I still consider myself to be new to FOREX trading, so I’m still asking the green questions.  
I was waiting for the announcement this morning from the RBNZ via webcast at http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/videos/webcasts/ 
.  I had my finger on the trigger, waiting to see what he said.  However, at least a couple minutes before the webcast kicked off, the NZD/USD dropped sharply.  I’m trying to understand why this is the case.  Off the top of my head I can think of three possibilities.  I would be interested to hear what others think?  

1.	Was the news leaked somewhere else before the webcast?
2.	Was the webcast not in real time as was suggested at the website?
3.	Or, did traders simply jump the gun and speculate early as to what the decision would be?


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## daytradeprofit (12 October 2015)

*How High Can Kiwi Climb?*

ZD/USD suggest the bullish trend plus the pattern that appear in the charts
Saucer Bottom trading :
Reversal pattern that appear with a small bowl shape and it occurs with a bottom at its bowl works for long-term trading volume. This chart pattern matches defines a long-time consolidation time which executes from bearish to bullish conception. Basically, the rounding bottom is deliberated as a bullish signal that describes a reversal trading. The rounding bottoms look more alike the alphabet U and it is described as rounding turns, saucers and bowls. Consolidation will happen when it descents down during the bottom of series. The V-shaped chart pattern gives yielding returns and it remains reliable in bringing results
unless breaking 0.6570 levels down will illuminate the scenario
Resistance stay in 0.68 - 0.69 – 07 keeps the positive scenario valid and active From fresh 2015 lows, touched in Sept., the pair has managed to register a descent recovery level of its April to Sept. downfall. Hence, from current levels the pair seems more likely to continue with its near-term recovery trend towards an important resistance confluence.
 it is likely to extend its near-term upward trajectory immediately towards 0.6710-20 intermediate resistance before aiming towards 38.2% Fib. Retracement level resistance near 0.680o area. On the downside, 0.6570 seems to provide immediate support.
Weakness below will cancel the scenario


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## ukulele (9 June 2016)

Pretty big gap on on the NZD central bank holding interest rates. On the daily the trend is strong perhaps the next resistance is the feb/mar spike lows around 0.717. Any other thoughts? I have a position open and I'm not sure where I want to target.


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## CanOz (9 June 2016)

ukulele said:


> Pretty big gap on on the NZD central bank holding interest rates. On the daily the trend is strong perhaps the next resistance is the feb/mar spike lows around 0.717. Any other thoughts? I have a position open and I'm not sure where I want to target.




7180 ish is the next resistance. I'd like to get onto a retest of the 'creek jump' sometime.


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## ukulele (9 June 2016)

I had a buy stop in place prior to the release, I had my stop at the nearest swing low on the 5 minute chart. I adjusted my position size to risk 0.5%. 

Due to the creek jump I got filled but suddenly my risk was 1.7ish %... Which is way above my "rules". Coincidentally I took profits this morning as I agree, the gap will be filled, perhaps in the Euro hours. 

Interestingly though a better trade would have been the AUD/USD at the same time, very little gap being a much more liquid pair. Easy 3:1 achievable if you trade the 5 minute time frame.


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## daytradeprofit (7 March 2017)

NZD/USD is trading narrow range for a long time, it seems to be having trouble breaking long-term resistance at 0.7340


Pay attention to the pattern – it could be that we see here gartley pattern' this the situation so we should expect to see lower number below the last lows, while break above 0.7340-0.7460 could take him to 0.79 area
The NZD/USD might need to see further strength to move above the 0.7340-0.74400 resistance, which could indicate make new highs at 0.79 area; break below 0.6940+_ may expose what could be another step down below the previous lows key resistance area below the 0.6760 level
One more thing:
See the similar moves that happen in 1999
break down0.6670-0.6780 will lead nzd to lower prices 0.61' and even lower to 0.53-0.59


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## MARKETWINNER (29 April 2017)

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-do...nts-weaker-commodities-trade-threats-b-202380


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## daytradeprofit (1 May 2017)

Is the weakness of the New Zealand Dollar, is only the beginning of a long journey down to lower destinations 
ay attention to the pattern – it could be that we see here Gartley pattern' this the situation so we should expect to see lower number below the last lows, while a 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 break above 0.7340-0.7460 could take him to 0.79 area

The NZD/USD might need to see further strength to move above the 0.7340-0.74400 resistance, which could indicate make new highs at 0.79 area; break below 0.6940+_ may expose what could be another step down below the previous lows key resistance area below the 0.6760 level


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## Dutchy3 (10 September 2017)

For those with W1 view of NZD/USD. D1 signalled last week for a potential wave 3 on a W1. Returns to .77500 late 2017 / early 2018


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## Mirus3000 (29 September 2017)

I think now it is  good time to take long 0.72165 . Stop-loss 0.72035  Profit target .72575


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## cogs (9 January 2019)

0.67820 - 0.6845 and slightly beyond.

I am not offering professional trading advice, nor am I a financial advisor.


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## cogs (10 January 2019)

First target hit, now the grind up to ~0.6845. Very late to get in on this IMO.


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## cogs (12 January 2019)

Well the second target has been hit. Pitty I couldn't sink my teeth into this as I have been committed elsewhere.
Two more major hidden gaps above, as the HG's build below.
Still many positions yet to be closed on the upside short term to 0.69100. The USD still appears to have some upside so opening anything from here I think will need to be watched closely.


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