# My open book trading plan - Two month test



## CanOz

Ok, so heres my plan.

I'm going to trade this out over two months of normal seasonal weakness. I'm not actually taking trades, only recording them (paper trading).

Feel free to add any helpful comments. 

Heres some guidelines (Got these from Nick's course) and i use them in my trading plan, which is essentially this:

-Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
-Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
-I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
-I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade, using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
-I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.
-I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
-I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
-Anything i'm missing here?


Cheers,


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## ta2693

CanOz said:


> Ok, so heres my plan.
> 
> I'm going to trade this out over two months of normal seasonal weakness. I'm not actually taking trades, only recording them (paper trading).
> 
> Feel free to add any helpful comments.
> 
> Heres some guidelines (Got these from Nick's course) and i use them in my trading plan, which is essentially this:
> 
> -Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
> -Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
> -I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
> -I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade, using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
> -I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.
> -I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
> -I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
> -Anything i'm missing here?
> 
> 
> Cheers,




How about add sell on Monday and buy on Tuesday into your plan. I find the whole market will up in Monday and fall in Tuesday basically.


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## nizar

CanOz said:


> Ok, so heres my plan.
> 
> I'm going to trade this out over two months of normal seasonal weakness. I'm not actually taking trades, only recording them (paper trading).
> 
> Feel free to add any helpful comments.
> 
> Heres some guidelines (Got these from Nick's course) and i use them in my trading plan, which is essentially this:
> 
> -Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
> -Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
> -I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
> *-I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade,* using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
> *-I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.*
> -I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
> -I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
> -Anything i'm missing here?
> 
> 
> Cheers,




Hi can.

Just on the first point i used to do this, ie. use 2% but i found that it was too much. Now i use 0.5-1%.

Also -- a good idea in my opinion would be to use a % of total equity to risk per trade, so as your acct decreases you risk less and as it increases you risk more. I think it was in Mike Lally's Mastering Risk is where i first read this.

For discretionary trading, i dont see why its a hurry to move the stop to breakeven, as you could miss the whole move. Make sure there is definate support created first and then put your end of day stop a touch below that.

But thats just my thoughts. Obviously Nick knows alot more than me.


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## wayneL

nizar said:


> Hi can.
> 
> Just on the first point i used to do this, ie. use 2% but i found that it was too much. Now i use 0.5-1%.



Yes, particularly if you have a bunch of correlated instruments such as stocks. 2% on an individual position can translate to a lot more on a portfolio level, depending on when positions were entered and so on.

As a simple example (just for the sake of argument) if you entered 5 stocks today, you actually have 10% of correlated risk... not this little black duck.

It might not be totally optimal, but 1% risk suits me too.


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## nizar

wayneL said:


> Yes, particularly if you have a bunch of correlated instruments such as stocks. 2% on an individual position can translate to a lot more on a portfolio level, depending on when positions were entered and so on.
> 
> As a simple example (just for the sake of argument) if you entered 5 stocks today, you actually have 10% of correlated risk... not this little black duck.
> 
> It might not be totally optimal, but 1% risk suits me too.




Yes, very true.
A good example of this was tuesday! 
LOL


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## It's Snake Pliskin

CanOz said:


> Ok, so heres my plan.
> 
> I'm going to trade this out over two months of normal seasonal weakness. I'm not actually taking trades, only recording them (paper trading).
> 
> Feel free to add any helpful comments.
> 
> Heres some guidelines (Got these from Nick's course) and i use them in my trading plan, which is essentially this:
> 
> -Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
> -Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
> -I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
> -I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade, using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
> -I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.
> -I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
> -I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
> -Anything i'm missing here?
> 
> 
> Cheers,




Can,

Moving to break even is determined by what? A percentage of move? Or just in an arbitrary discretionary manner?

I think you are trading too much risk at 2% - Wayne gives a good reason for this too. Correlation of holdings is fooling your mindset on risk. It is total capital unless you want it to rise with profits - 3% if trading well?

Pertinent question for me: proteceting capital and surviving aside, what are you trying to achieve return wise? Realistically.

Cheers....


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## happytrader

Hi Canaussieuck

Make your trade entries towards the last quarter of the 5th hour. At the beginning of the trading day the only known is the opening price. The range and close are anybody's guess.  However, by taking a look in the 5th hour you get a pretty good idea whether or not the pattern setup meets your entry requirements.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## theasxgorilla

wayneL said:


> It might not be totally optimal, but 1% risk suits me too.




And I seem to recall recently you were saying that you don't actually experience that much in the way of drawdowns when you trade.


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## Porper

CanOz said:


> Ok, so heres my plan.
> 
> I'm going to trade this out over two months of normal seasonal weakness. I'm not actually taking trades, only recording them (paper trading).
> 
> Feel free to add any helpful comments.
> 
> Heres some guidelines (Got these from Nick's course) and i use them in my trading plan, which is essentially this:
> 
> -Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
> -Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
> -I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
> -I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade, using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
> -I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.
> -I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
> -I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
> -Anything i'm missing here?
> 
> 
> Cheers,




Great idea CanOz, and you are brave having a go, hopefully you won't get critcised and will get positive feedback while you are doing this.

I used Nick Radges 2% for a while but have to agree with Wayne etc, get a market correction (even a small one) and 2% on 5 stocks with tight stops and you have lost 10% of your capital.I use 1.5% now as any less and I can't buy big enough parcel sizes with my limited account size.

Adaptive Analysis states to move stop to breakeven when 1.5 - 2 times your initial risk is lost.I think it works, yes you will get stopped out occasionally, but if you work this in with your low risk entries, your stops should be ok most of the time.

Of course if it was proved you had a positive expectancy you could trade at a lot higher than 2% risk and trade for optimum profits, it would make me never sleep again  , so not for me.


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## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Ok, so heres my plan.
> 
> I'm going to trade this out over two months of normal seasonal weakness. I'm not actually taking trades, only recording them (paper trading).
> 
> Feel free to add any helpful comments.
> 
> Heres some guidelines (Got these from Nick's course) and i use them in my trading plan, which is essentially this:
> 
> -Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
> -Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
> -I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
> -I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade, using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
> -I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.
> -I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
> -I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
> -Anything i'm missing here?
> 
> 
> Cheers,




Can I did not see you write anything about this, but i may have missd it as I am half asleep.

what are you allocating to parcel size. What is your % of total capital for each open margin? will u use 1-2% stop for each separate margin or divide it? what is the total amount of trades to have open at any one time how many trades to be open at once in colirated markets or uncolirated markets?

Will you be shorting against the trend or just on corrections. will your market time frame change for shorts? or will it stay daily?

what is your time frame in each trade will you ride out normal reactions dips or close on them and start again or add to the dips?

Good trading Can


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## RichKid

Hi CanOz
Great to see a detailed plan coming into place, I'm still in the process of fine tuning one myself.....I agree with Wayne and Snake about being cautious, bet as small as possible (I like 1% of total equity, you can always pyramid aggressively later) and you will sleep better- psychology is very important to executing the trading plan. Protecting your capital is very important to survival.

I agree about using total equity, I like the way Lally explains it too, Ryan Jones has more to add: reduce your position/bet size as you lose (drawdown deepens) and increase it as you win, but always within the max risk. If you're going to dice up your ac into equal position sizes then as you lose you will obviously have smaller positions as some money would have gone out from the original float- hence the focus on total equity. 

Still learning about this myself so do as much research and testing as you can. Mind you, in volatile markets tight stops can have you shaken out quite often so it's good to have sound technical stop levels with position size altered to suit (rather than increasing the percentage risked).

Look forward to seeing how this progresses, I have a lot more work to do on my mm and risk mgmt.


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## nizar

Trade_It said:


> Can I did not see you write anything about this, but i may have missd it as I am half asleep.
> 
> what are you allocating to parcel size. What is your % of total capital for each open margin? will u use 1-2% stop for each separate margin or divide it? what is the total amount of trades to have open at any one time how many trades to be open at once in colirated markets or uncolirated markets?
> 
> Will you be shorting against the trend or just on corrections. will your market time frame change for shorts? or will it stay daily?
> 
> what is your time frame in each trade will you ride out normal reactions dips or close on them and start again or add to the dips?
> 
> Good trading Can




TI.
I think in this instance parcel size is determined by placement of the intial stop, and the 2% risk.


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## >Apocalypto<

nizar said:


> TI.
> I think in this instance parcel size is determined by placement of the intial stop, and the 2% risk.




Oh ok got it. Cheers Nizar.

Just wondered, I always work to 15% of cap per position.

Good trading guys.


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## nomore4s

wayneL said:


> Yes, particularly if you have a bunch of correlated instruments such as stocks. 2% on an individual position can translate to a lot more on a portfolio level, depending on when positions were entered and so on.
> 
> As a simple example (just for the sake of argument) if you entered 5 stocks today, you actually have 10% of correlated risk... not this little black duck.
> 
> It might not be totally optimal, but 1% risk suits me too.




On this subject from the point of view of a novice with very limited capital (20K).
I use 1.5%-2% on each position otherwise I find the overall position size is too small to make any decent gains but I do pyramid into postions once the stock moves in the right direction giving me a larger postion size but the same or reduced risk(stop gets moved up once the pyramid postion is taken).

But what I also do to reduce my overall risk is that I only have 2 or maybe 3new positions open at any one time and will not open another position until either I'm stopped out of a trade or it is so far in profit that my stop is well above breakeven. So if I'm stopped out of all my trades at once I'm risking a total of 4-6% of capital. I find it easier to monitor the trades this way as well, and it makes sure I don't overtrade and lose track of where I'm at. By being able to monitor the trades more closely I have found it easier to pick up & learn from my mistakes(and there has been plenty).

Good luck Cana


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## CFD

Does anyone know if this is a good idea in relation to trailing stop losses?

However the initial stop loss is set, increase the stop by say 80% of any gain.
ie a stock moves (the right way) by 40c, so you move the stop 32c, leaving 8c to a widening stop.   

How well would this support the idea of cutting losses short and letting profits run, ie start with a tight stop loss and then broaden it as the stock moves?


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## CanOz

CFD said:


> Does anyone know if this is a good idea in relation to trailing stop losses?
> 
> However the initial stop loss is set, increase the stop by say 80% of any gain.
> ie a stock moves (the right way) by 40c, so you move the stop 32c, leaving 8c to a widening stop.
> 
> How well would this support the idea of cutting losses short and letting profits run, ie start with a tight stop loss and then broaden it as the stock moves?




Hmmm, not sure about that one...what i like to do is move to breakeven after the price has moved 2 x my inital stop level in the direction of the trade.eg., if i buy xyz at 100 and place a stop at 80, then once xyz closes at or above 140 i would move the stop to 100.

The trailing stop would follow the trend and if a new high is made it would move to just below the new low.

Thanks everyone for thier input. I will use 1% if the 75k starting capital and scale down as follows:
Start	1%	
75000	750	1
74250	743	2
73508	735	3
72772	728	4
72045	720	5
71324	713	6
70611	706	7
69905	699	8
69206	692	9
68514	685	10
67829	678	11
67150	672	12
66479	665	13
65814	658	14
65156	652	15
64504	645	16
63859	639	17
63221	632	18
62589	626	19
61963	620	20

I think i'll put in a pyramid rule, was thinking i would open a new position if the stock breaks out of consolidation...any thoughts on this? The other option is i could risk a greater portion of the capital if the system is showing realised profits.

Eg. if i closed out a trade for a $1000 profit, then that goes into the capital pool eventually allowing and increase in risk to say, 1.5%, then 2% etc...?

Cheers,


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## CanOz

RichKid said:


> Mind you, in volatile markets tight stops can have you shaken out quite often so it's good to have *sound technical stop levels* with position size altered to suit (rather than increasing the percentage risked).





Thanks RK, and this was a great point which i think made me realise so many losers recently. Nick had mentioned it too, that allot of stops were getting hit lately and wider ranges needed to be used with soild technical supports. In really bullish trends, is it acceptable to use tighter stops with minor support to allow an increase in positon size to take advantage of the conditions? OR is this bending the rules? Could you use this as a seasonal adjustment to the trading plan to take advantage of historically favorable trading conditions?

Cheers,

A note on determining position size.

xzy buy $100, stop at technical support = $95, difference is $5 divided into $750 (1% of 75,000) = 150, i can buy 150 shares of XYZ for $100.00


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## CanOz

FWIW - records are very important. Heres a simple spreadsheet i'll be using and posting here on my trades for the next two months.

Cheers,


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## chrisdedavid

Hi all, *Thanks* for comments, so helpful for a beginner (actually not even started)  guy like me 

*Re: 2%* ... this sounds ok to me coz that means you _virtually _have 50 positions, poz size 1.5K, $20 entry $20 exit, so 2.5% roughly goes to fees, so stock must go up by more than that _atleast_  (this is very rough, I know 2% amount will decrease or increase )

*Re: paper trading for 2 months*
I'm developing a plan now, it involves using advice from professionals and not use chart analysis. "duplicate then innovate" :
and instead of paper trading for 2 months from now... I will simulate trading for 2 months from 2 moths ago till now using archived reports/advice documents.

*The reports* come from "wise-owl", my judgement so far is that they are good at what they do, and that is all I need... "guidance by professionals" so that I can minimise mistakes made by me as a beginner until making some profits.

*2nd stage*... Use portion of profits with increased risk vs increased return trades.

*Final goal* is to be a daily options trader... I've realised this is harder than it looks. The swings are pretty high... too much for me right now 

*Mistakes*
... mistakes were mentioned, I would like to see a forum thread that lists traders real life mistakes, and how they could have avoided or minimized them with sound planning.


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## chrisdedavid

*Only 4 trades* 

4 trades at any one time... only!?...Not sure if I understand this correctly.

Does that mean 2% (or 1% now) * 4 running out of 75K capital?

:newbie:


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## It's Snake Pliskin

chrisdedavid said:


> Hi all, *Thanks* for comments, so helpful for a beginner (actually not even started)  guy like me
> 
> *Re: 2%* ... this sounds ok to me coz that means you _virtually _have 50 positions, poz size 1.5K, $20 entry $20 exit, so 2.5% roughly goes to fees, so stock must go up by more than that _atleast_  (this is very rough, I know 2% amount will decrease or increase )
> 
> *Re: paper trading for 2 months*
> I'm developing a plan now, it involves using advice from professionals and not use chart analysis. "duplicate then innovate" :
> and instead of paper trading for 2 months from now... I will simulate trading for 2 months from 2 moths ago till now using archived reports/advice documents.
> 
> *The reports* come from "wise-owl", my judgement so far is that they are good at what they do, and that is all I need... "guidance by professionals" so that I can minimise mistakes made by me as a beginner until making some profits.
> 
> *2nd stage*... Use portion of profits with increased risk vs increased return trades.
> 
> *Final goal* is to be a daily options trader... I've realised this is harder than it looks. The swings are pretty high... too much for me right now
> 
> *Mistakes*
> ... mistakes were mentioned, I would like to see a forum thread that lists traders real life mistakes, and how they could have avoided or minimized them with sound planning.




So from your thesis I take it you will make your own decisions when you are in profit and won't require the help of professionals? 

Blindly following experts without evolving can only lead to one thing when ne goes out on their own. Following professionals with understanding may be different.


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## nomore4s

chrisdedavid said:


> Hi all, *Thanks* for comments, so helpful for a beginner (actually not even started)  guy like me
> 
> *Re: 2%* ... this sounds ok to me coz that means you _virtually _have 50 positions, poz size 1.5K, $20 entry $20 exit, so 2.5% roughly goes to fees, so stock must go up by more than that _atleast_  (this is very rough, I know 2% amount will decrease or increase )
> *Mistakes*
> ... mistakes were mentioned, I would like to see a forum thread that lists traders real life mistakes, and how they could have avoided or minimized them with sound planning.




I think you've misunderstood this a bit. The 2% everyone is refering to is max risk not position size. So for $75k, 2% risk per trade would be $1500, what some posters are saying is that this is to big and should be more like 1% or $750.00

I'm pretty sure there is a thread on the mistakes everyones made,


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## chrisdedavid

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> So from your thesis I take it you will make your own decisions when you are in profit and won't require the help of professionals?
> 
> Blindly following experts without evolving can only lead to one thing when ne goes out on their own. Following professionals with understanding may be different.




 "thesis" yep sorry heh made me laugh though.. thanks.

I'm all up for criticism and comments help etc... that's why I'm here. Getting as much advice as possible without being able to give any back really :

I have many ambitions with trading, I've played stock market games and made profits (twice)... that was all by investing in companies that I simply liked AMD, INTC, IBM, then a few short sells where just following trends.

But... I will not be blindly following... just using pro's to point out promising leads, then I investigate further. The reports show charts, company outlooks etc... If I wanted to be blindly trading I would simply pay a broker... that's not the plan.


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## chrisdedavid

nomore4s said:


> I think you've misunderstood this a bit. The 2% everyone is refering to is max risk not position size. So for $75k, 2% risk per trade would be $1500, what some posters are saying is that this is to big and should be more like 1% or $750.00
> 
> I'm pretty sure there is a thread on the mistakes everyones made,




Thanks for clearing that up, that makes more sense now... but don't agree with it heheh. (i can see "mistake" signs in my head ... potentially me making a mistake here)

I like to look at charts and set stop levels depending on the trend, volatility, and share price. Cheaper stocks may have more swings than more expensive ones.

What if I invest 1.5K of my 75K ... should I set the stop loss at 0.00 as that would be a 2% loss?


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## professor_frink

chrisdedavid said:


> Thanks for clearing that up, that makes more sense now... but don't agree with it heheh. (i can see "mistake" signs in my head ... potentially me making a mistake here)
> 
> I like to look at charts and set stop levels depending on the trend, volatility, and share price. Cheaper stocks may have more swings than more expensive ones.
> 
> What if I invest 1.5K of my 75K ... should I set the stop loss at 0.00 as that would be a 2% loss?




Hi chrisdedavid,

Have a look at this post by Nizar, should clear things up for you

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=161774&postcount=6


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## nomore4s

chrisdedavid said:


> Thanks for clearing that up, that makes more sense now... but don't agree with it heheh. (i can see "mistake" signs in my head ... potentially me making a mistake here)
> 
> I like to look at charts and set stop levels depending on the trend, volatility, and share price. Cheaper stocks may have more swings than more expensive ones.
> 
> What if I invest 1.5K of my 75K ... should I set the stop loss at 0.00 as that would be a 2% loss?




Your position size is determined by the 2%.
E.g XYZ - Purchased @ $1.00, stop set at  $0.90 = 10c risk.
Therefore MAX position size is $750/$0.10 = 7500 shares x $1.00 = $7500
I also make allowances for fees when doing this so my max loss would be $700 + fees. e.g $700/$0.10 = 7000 shares


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## theasxgorilla

chrisdedavid said:


> What if I invest 1.5K of my 75K ... should I set the stop loss at 0.00 as that would be a 2% loss?




The short answer is yes, if you're only going to put 1.5k into a position and you're prepared to risk 2% of total equity each time you take a bet you can effectively have no stop.


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## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Ok, so heres my plan.
> 
> -Capital: 75,000 AUD (i would normally trade CFD's with approx. $30k)
> *What parcel size will you be trading?
> Fixed?
> Maximum?*
> -Universe: Will be my IG Market list that Lesm kindly gave me for the mech system testing. It can go both long and short (most of the time )
> -I will attempt to take long and short positions in stocks that present low risk entries using typical chart pattern analysis, incorporating some VSA, and some really primitive EW.
> *OK*
> -I will only risk 2% of starting capital on any trade, using strong support/resistance and fixed fractional positioning to determine quantity purchased.
> *Fine again
> But as you say your going to be leveraged
> so you only have $600 to risk/trade.
> This will then determine position size\ie wether you have to deminish the size of the parcel due to being able to purchase more than to have allocated /parcel size.
> 
> Lets say you have a $1 stock.
> Risk is 3c
> $600/.03 = $20000 worth you could buy.
> If your Maximum single position size is $10,000 then you can only buy that amount of stock and your actual risk on THIS trade will only be 1%.
> 
> Simple really!*
> -I will move stops to B.Even ASAP.
> 
> *I would only move to B/E when you have atleast a 2:1 R/R OR there is a technical higher low you can move the stop to.*
> -I will use a trailing stop (higher low)
> *Fine*
> -I will use a profit stop (50% increase in less than 2 bars) to be honest i have not really thought about this allot yet, i am interested in suggestions here.
> 
> *This is a outlier move profit stop--thats fine as well just add it to your exit criteria as an OR option.
> I presume the trailing stop OR the outlier move will take you out of a trade.*
> -Anything i'm missing here?
> 
> *Probably.*
> 
> Cheers,




Few thoughts.Will be good for you to do this.


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## chrisdedavid

professor_frink said:


> Hi chrisdedavid,
> 
> Have a look at this post by Nizar, should clear things up for you
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=161774&postcount=6




Thanks professor, makes more sense that way.


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## IFocus

Hi Can

Didn’t see any mention of the time frame you had in mind. Choosing up front how many bars you are looking for can start to help maybe influence / determine your position sizing, risk, stop, trade frequency etc.

The best traders I have seen always have a very clear time frame in mind. 

Have included a chart of AOE, which part of the move belongs to you?  

This exercise will be huge for your own progress (and other forum members too) congratulations you just took the next step towards long term success

Focus


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## CanOz

IFocus said:


> Hi Can
> 
> Didn’t see any mention of the time frame you had in mind. Choosing up front how many bars you are looking for can start to help maybe influence / determine your position sizing, risk, stop, trade frequency etc.
> 
> The best traders I have seen always have a very clear time frame in mind.
> 
> Have included a chart of AOE, which part of the move belongs to you?
> 
> This exercise will be huge for your own progress (and other forum members too) congratulations you just took the next step towards long term success
> 
> Focus




I would like to think we could have rode that whole trend Focus...i think my trailing stop would have held out, only just though.

Heres a little summary of the rules:

The open book system rules.	
Universe:	IG Markets Controlled Risk securities list
Starting Capital: 	$75000, unleveraged
Trade duration:	Medium to long term
Trade direction:	Long and short
Risk % per trade: 	1% of available capital per trade
Position size:	To be determined by fixed fractional positioning @ 1% capital risk:
Initial stop:	Just below strong technical support
Breakeven Stop:	2 x initial stop
Trailing stop:	just below new higher low
Profit stop:	Yet to be determined - open to discussion.


----------



## CanOz

Heres a few potentials for Monday.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> I would like to think we could have rode that whole trend Focus...i think my trailing stop would have held out, only just though.
> 
> Heres a little summary of the rules:
> 
> The open book system rules.
> Universe:	IG Markets Controlled Risk securities list
> Starting Capital: 	$75000, unleveraged
> Trade duration:	Medium to long term
> Trade direction:	Long and short
> Risk % per trade: 	1% of available capital per trade
> Position size:	To be determined by fixed fractional positioning @ 1% capital risk:
> Initial stop:	Just below strong technical support
> Breakeven Stop:	2 x initial stop
> Trailing stop:	just below new higher low
> Profit stop:	Yet to be determined - open to discussion.




Can.
I have seen a system hit 84% winners and make 30% annual return with acceptable drawdowns and it was based on 2 exits:
1. Profit taking exit at 100%
2. If 1 was not satisfied, then a 3 year time stop was used.

Even though such a pair of exits goes against the saying of:
"Chop your dogs and let your winners run", the results are still what i would call, above average.

Universe was s&p500, money management 10% each position.
Entry was random.
Drawdowns were acceptable (to me), with average max peak to valley drawdown of 21%.

I read about this and saw the reports and monte carlo on reefcap forum. A great tool for discussion of mechanical systems trading.

Somethings to think about -- and test.


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Heres a few potentials for Monday.
> 
> Cheers,




Ady looking good for an entry for me on Monday.
I like the way it bounced off 25c -- the resistance point. On volume as well.
With end of day stop a touch below 25.

Cul as well, stop with a close below 6.

What do you think of these?

Actually what is your entry criteria?


----------



## CanOz

This was a good short the other week, could be another potential trade, long this time.

Nizar, ADY is not in my universe unfortunately...entry's criteria to find reversals, breakouts, triangles etc. so i can get in with a stop just below strong support.

This is a descretionary system remember. Were you thinking it was mechanical?

Cheers,


----------



## doctorj

I'd be waiting to see what this one does on monday before entering long - If it holds its ground and closes up, I'd be interested.


----------



## tech/a

> Anything I'm missing here?
> 
> *Probably*




*CanOz* In all seriousness if the quality of setup you are looking at is like the one above,then your likelyhood of success is *very remote.*Your attempting to trade against the governing trend.

When taking a discretionary trade

I ALWAYS ask myself.
(1) Where is the trade relative to the governing trend.
(2) How long am I likely to be able to stay with the trend.
(3) Why should I NOT be in this trade?

*Sure you can trade pullbacks.*
But the above doesnt qualify as a pullback does it?
Frankly I wouldnt even be looking for a short setup in it either.
Remember stocks run in 4 cycles.
*(1) Accumulation
(2) Uptrend
(3) Distribution
(4) Retracement.*

*You want to trade OUT OF (1)
or WITH (2)*


----------



## professor_frink

I'd want to see a higher low established in PSV before making an entry.


----------



## tcoates

CanOz - best of luck (in all seriousness). You might be right. I personally also the weekly chart and there is nothing convincing there for me.

Tim


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> *CanOz* In all seriousness if the quality of setup you are looking at is like the one above,then your likelyhood of success is *very remote.*Your attempting to trade against the governing trend.
> 
> When taking a discretionary trade
> 
> I ALWAYS ask myself.
> (1) Where is the trade relative to the governing trend.
> (2) How long am I likely to be able to stay with the trend.
> (3) Why should I NOT be in this trade?
> 
> *Sure you can trade pullbacks.*
> But the above doesnt qualify as a pullback does it?
> Frankly I wouldnt even be looking for a short setup in it either.
> Remember stocks run in 4 cycles.
> *(1) Accumulation
> (2) Uptrend
> (3) Distribution
> (4) Retracement.*
> 
> *You want to trade OUT OF (1)
> or WITH (2)*




Thanks Tech for your input.

Most of what i'll present here in the next few days are charts for the watchlists. I've got quite a few more yet to come. Your comments, however stupid they make me feel at times, are a learning experience for me and 
I really appreciate the comments on them. Remember i can go short (in theory) and this is an area where i'm even worse at picking opportunities, IMO. 

Professor, i totally agree. I would be looking for a it to confirm the breakout and then make the new higher low around that old support i marked with the line.

To search for opportunities, what i like to do is go through the sectors first. The weakess sectors then i can scan for shorting opps, and the stronger sectors for long opps.

The only issue i have at the moment is confining it my my universe. The reason (for Nizar) that i'm using this universe is that i will eventually want to use this system for CFD's. The universe is the IG Markets controlled risk CFD list.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

And another one for the long opps watchlist...i like to build watchlists, then i can use alerts to tell me when an opportunity has come up.


----------



## nomore4s

Cana, maybe you are overcomplicating things a bit?

These are just suggestions but maybe you should limit yourself to looking at long only positions atm. I know the lure of being able to go short is strong especially with the market going sideways atm but with your bad run atm maybe you would be best served to get back to basics and just look for high prob, low risk long entries. This would serve the purpose of getting your confidence back and give you time to look for and work out a system that gives you a strong signal to go short. I even recall WayneL saying he hadn't had many signals to go short lately.

2 of the charts you've posted up for your watchlists are both in downtrends atm, this looks a bit like bottom picking to me(purely my opinion), maybe you should just concentrate on looking for entries on stocks where the long term trend is up as there is plenty of them around atm. This may help to improve your strike rate.

Good luck.


----------



## CanOz

Heres a nice uptrend and a triangle breakout, a bit late for my liking.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

Much better!!
Yes a bit late but look at that "oops" bar at the bottom of the triangle.
2 of them!!
Lets get selective and wait for a trade to come to us.


----------



## lesm

tech/a said:


> Much better!!
> Lets get selective and wait for a trade to come to us.




Yes, there is no need to rush. Being patient is a virtue.

Look for high probability, low risk trading opportunities.

If you are late, let it go and wait/look for another opportunity. The market will still be there tomorrow.


----------



## CanOz

nomore4s said:


> Cana, maybe you are overcomplicating things a bit?
> 
> These are just suggestions but maybe you should limit yourself to looking at long only positions atm. I know the lure of being able to go short is strong especially with the market going sideways atm but with your bad run atm maybe you would be best served to get back to basics and just look for high prob, low risk long entries. This would serve the purpose of getting your confidence back and give you time to look for and work out a system that gives you a strong signal to go short. I even recall WayneL saying he hadn't had many signals to go short lately.
> 
> 2 of the charts you've posted up for your watchlists are both in downtrends atm, this looks a bit like bottom picking to me(purely my opinion), maybe you should just concentrate on looking for entries on stocks where the long term trend is up as there is plenty of them around atm. This may help to improve your strike rate.
> 
> Good luck.




Thanks Nomore4s, i appreciate all the advice. The two stocks i posted that were in downtrends are only for the long opps watch list. I didn't intend on any taking a posy just yet. PSV was a stock that i just recently closed out a short on, now i was noticing some buyers coming back in, as i said, one for the watchlist.

Lesm, i think that is one of my downfalls, not being patient enough. Thats why i'm building some watchlists from some of my scan results.

Any other advice on using scans and watchlists, i would love to hear some more ideas. 

OXR represents a real opp soon, and QBE is a low risk/high prob setup with a recent move back to support.



Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

*NM4s*
Yes agree.

*Can*
What we need to know is what we are waiting for.
When a setup is pretty well ready.
We need to identify setups (the specifics).And explain why.
We wont get it spot everytime and we wont be right everytime but we are trying to find that low risk high probability trade to hop on.
I'll see what I can find.


----------



## nizar

Can,

APZ looks the goods to me.
Also see ADY.

In my opinion.


----------



## nizar

QBE yes there is support.
But for me -- id rather buy it when it breaks the overhead resistance.
Currently theres no reason from the chart as to why the price wont range trade for a while.

If you want to trade the range and make a few % thats fine current levels give a good entry.
But for a higher R/R trade if look for an entry when it breaks to the upside, from the trading range.

In my opinion.


----------



## CFD

ADY is not on the list, I guess you like APZ because it's gone through $2.50?
What else can we look at on the chart? In the volume spikes above "1" for June, I see the first one as longer term buying and the second shorter term professional selling. Where does this leave APZ?


----------



## nizar

CFD said:


> ADY is not on the list, I guess you like APZ because it's gone through $2.50?




Yes -- blue skies now


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> QBE yes there is support.
> But for me -- id rather buy it when it breaks the overhead resistance.
> Currently theres no reason from the chart as to why the price wont range trade for a while.
> 
> If you want to trade the range and make a few % thats fine current levels give a good entry.
> But for a higher R/R trade if look for an entry when it breaks to the upside, from the trading range.
> 
> In my opinion.




Well this certainly makes for educational discussion....i like this. In my view, the reason QBE would be a stronger low risk opportunity now, would be that its closer to confirmed strong support. If you took the posi later, after the breakout was confirmed, it could slip back below again as it did already, and in fact thats what it did to me the other day. It was at that point i could understand why, in this case, that the lower risk position was after it bounced off the support. 

This also to me is the paradox associated with ADY, i put some comments on the chart. 

Thanks for your input Nizar, remember its not about being right here for me, i just want to pick everyones brain a bit.

Thanks,


----------



## motorway

CFD said:


> ADY is not on the list, I guess you like APZ because it's gone through $2.50?
> What else can we look at on the chart? In the volume spikes above "1" for June, I see the first one as longer term buying and the second shorter term professional selling. Where does this leave APZ?





If it was professional selling
why the response of the subsequent bars?

Just a suggestion

But it looks a little like absorption of supply
as the stock encountered resistance

someone was buying that volume and the price has continued on UP since

When looking at the action in one BAR
look to at it as a test and the following bars as a response

Price moved UP from the first High Volume bar
That did indicate new demand

In a range  esp In a decline
price moves ahead of the sellers
When it turns back up that selling is MET

Is it absorbed
or does it end the chapter..

What Do you make of the last bar ?

motorway


----------



## motorway

CanOz said:


> Well this certainly makes for educational discussion....i like this. In my view, the reason QBE would be a stronger low risk opportunity now, would be that its closer to confirmed strong support. If you took the posi later, after the breakout was confirmed, it could slip back below again as it did already, and in fact thats what it did to me the other day. It was at that point i could understand why, in this case, that the lower risk position was after it bounced off the support.
> 
> This also to me is the paradox associated with ADY, i put some comments on the chart.
> 
> Thanks for your input Nizar, remember its not about being right here for me, i just want to pick everyones brain a bit.
> 
> Thanks,




Buy SUPPORT
Sell Resistance

At the top of the rally 
a natural reaction at least is to be expected

But with QBE ( I will have to have a close look )
What is the C.REL.Strength

last I looked
Stocks in this group were going NOWHERE

Buy support WITH strength
Sell resistance WITH Weakness

motorway


----------



## nomore4s

motorway said:


> What Do you make of the last bar ?
> 
> motorway




Just a stab in the dark here motorway (just learning).

But a close near its highs with a good rise in price and low vol, does this indicate that supply is running out or has run out?


----------



## tech/a

Further to Motorways Great info.

Something I have picked up from Both Steidlmayer
and to some degree Darvas.

Hope this is helping you identify some lower risk opportunity setups *CanOz*
Note also that the best moves *within* an up move come from very tight consolidation areas which become very strong support Zones.
Look for these *WITHIN* an up move. Better still try to identify the up mave as a wave 3--particularly when you notice a wave 1 high being taken out---signalling a new wave 3 is now underway.(*Second chart*!)

So I wouldnt be buying this yet either!

NOR QBE!!


----------



## CanOz

nomore4s said:


> Just a stab in the dark here motorway (just learning).
> 
> But a close near its highs with a good rise in price and low vol, does this indicate that supply is running out or has run out?




That was 19 million shares traded, its above average volume still, the close is not that far off the high, its bloody bullish to me!

Heres another that looks like accumulation, Nizar, might be in your universe, you the one accumulating?

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

*NM4s.*

To me the wide range and the lower volume is a little confusing in ISOLATION.
Supply AND demand are so so.
But looking at the last 2 bars before it which were low volume and tighter range this indicated that there wasnt supply pressure and lack of demand.
So as a story over a few bars I'm with you,supply decreasing (Being overcome by demand).More to come adding to the picture Monday.


----------



## chrisdedavid

CanOz said:


> Thanks Tech for your input.
> 
> Most of what i'll present here in the next few days are charts for the watchlists. I've got quite a few more yet to come. Your comments, however stupid they make me feel at times, are a learning experience for me and
> I really appreciate the comments on them. Remember i can go short (in theory) and this is an area where i'm even worse at picking opportunities, IMO.




From a non experienced thrill seeker (me) ... I reckon "go for it" but with a small amount of money that you don't care loosing. example Short sell at 30c and limit loss at 50c or so. Hold till you think it's on it's way up... I'd be reading news on the Company daily and keeping an eye on profit report times. (remember, I know nothing  )


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> That was 19 million shares traded, its above average volume still, the close is not that far off the high, its bloody bullish to me!
> 
> Heres another that looks like accumulation, Nizar, might be in your universe, you the one accumulating?
> 
> Cheers,




Sorry cana I was talking about APZ as per motorways post and not ADY.

Thanks Tech for the reply, will keep on eye on it next week to see the picture unfold. Finding VSA very interesting.


----------



## tech/a

nomore4s said:


> Sorry cana I was talking about APZ as per motorways post and not ADY.
> 
> Thanks Tech for the reply, will keep on eye on it next week to see the picture unfold. Finding VSA very interesting.




OOps my comments were ADY also!!


----------



## CanOz

Ok Tech, I think i've got some tools that can help me out here, pattern explorer for Amibroker has these two, fractals to help me with my EW learning. And Support and Resistance which quickly plots the basic S&R lines as soon as you bring up the symbol, heres, ADY as an example.

I'll do some more scans today.

Thanks everyone for your input.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Another one one the watchlist, still a bit of supply about.



Cheers,


----------



## Porper

nizar said:


> QBE yes there is support.
> But for me -- id rather buy it when it breaks the overhead resistance.
> Currently theres no reason from the chart as to why the price wont range trade for a while.
> 
> If you want to trade the range and make a few % thats fine current levels give a good entry.
> But for a higher R/R trade if look for an entry when it breaks to the upside, from the trading range.
> 
> In my opinion.




I quite like the look of QBE, just to be different from most.

It gives the opportunity for a low risk entry and is oversold with a good reversal crossover.Admittedly it isn't a perfect set up, there will be reistance at $33.00 but the downside is minimal.

Can, to me this is a much safer way to go than looking at stocks like ADY where they shoot up only to retrace.These types of stocks are good after the retrace and a reversal sign is given to continue the trend.As it is you either can't take up a large enough position due to a wide stop or you will get stopped out all the time.

Just my thoughts.


----------



## tech/a

*Canaussieuk* 

Here is an example of what I consider a low risk entry and from the chart I hope you can see why.
Its very simple.
Gives s sensible stop with a 7c risk.If it opened at $1.29
So you could in this exercise buy 20,000 of them.

*Also note the recient break above a 10 yr high not shown on this chart!!*


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Tech/A,

I'm going to open two positions Monday morning (theoretical), QBE, and MAH.

And heres one to watch for your setup you like.


----------



## CanOz

I love finding absorption volume...like this one...does anyone else build watch lists? or do you just scan for opportunities nitely/daily?

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> *Canaussieuk*
> 
> Here is an example of what I consider a low risk entry and from the chart I hope you can see why.
> Its very simple.
> Gives s sensible stop with a 7c risk.If it opened at $1.29
> So you could in this exercise buy 20,000 of them.
> 
> *Also note the recient break above a 10 yr high not shown on this chart!!*




Yes this one certainly looks the goods to me.

Porper, QBE looks like it will range trade for a while.
The chart is almost an identical copy of how AED was.
4 month sideways range bwteen 4.75-5.20. I bought it when it broke the resistance at 5.20. Gapped up the next day i got it on the open at 5.43. Got to 7.50 before any appreciable pullback.

QBE looks to me like it will range trade for a bit.
What i would do -- is wait for when it breaks $33. If it does so, it will probably do it on volume, coz plenty of sellers at that level. I would then buy the next days open and a put the stop a touch below $33. This stop would be 50c-ish. Pretty low risk entry to me THEN. Not now.

Because to validate the uptrend, previous resistance becomes support and upwards and onwards we go.


MAH is a beauty. Blue skies since 1990. I cannot NOT buy it. Thanks tech


----------



## tech/a

Its not a recommendation guys its an example.
If everyone buys it the "Smart money" will take our hard earned and it will drop like a stone!!!


----------



## motorway

tech/a said:


> Its not a recommendation guys its an example.
> If everyone buys it the "Smart money" will take our hard earned and it will drop like a stone!!!







> What i would do -- is wait for when it breaks $33. If it does so, it will probably do it on volume




Everyone can see what you are seeing
and they are probably are waiting as well

This is the crystallizing of sentiment and contingency by the activity in the trading range..

It is not necessarily the low risk trade

What determines is 

is this range accumulation or distribution

Things I would look for among others ;

Where is the volume ?
top of the swings 
bottom of the swings

Are the swings widening or narrowing ?

Is demand or supply exhausting ?

QBE
I could not state with any confidence
that this is accumulation ( looks more like distribution )
I would be more confident going short at the top of the next swing
then I would be going long at the bottom of the current swing.

I Would not at this stage buy the breakout
I would be wary of an upthrust and sharp move back

I want to see some bullish activity
Some good strong bars with volume
I want to see volume at the end of the down swings start to dry up.
And I want to see HIGHER BOTTOMS

I would tend to see this range as distribution
But need to see more testing 

When the Volume subsides
Testing might be concluded..

And I want to see the C rel strength improve
esp on down days 
low volume narrow range bars
with lowish volume
would be a good response.


motorway


----------



## nizar

Tech, motorway.

Which is better APZ or MAH and why?

Iv made up my mind, just keen to hear/discuss some thoughts.

Thanks.


----------



## CFD

What's QBE's next support level below $31-?


----------



## tcoates

CFD - 

about $29.23, $28 then $26 (from weekly charts)

Tim


----------



## tech/a

Take a look at BUR (For the watchlist)
I would be waiting for a pullback for a closer stop position.
SDM Short.Again on the watchlist.
GDN watchlist above .455
CUO Close.


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> Take a look at BUR (For the watchlist)
> I would be waiting for a pullback for a closer stop position.
> SDM Short.Again on the watchlist.
> GDN watchlist above .455
> CUO Close.




BUR so overbought its not funny.
GDN a dog (with fleas)
CUO nice.


----------



## 123enen

AED is in it's third consolidation in 12 months.
This could be a good candidate.


----------



## nomore4s

123enen said:


> AED is in it's third consolidation in 12 months.
> This could be a good candidate.




Got a feeling this one could gap up on open, on the back of news of the 100million barrels.


----------



## CanOz

nomore4s said:


> Got a feeling this one could gap up on open, on the back of news of the 100million barrels.




I'm going to use this stock as a personal exercise in patience, there will be those who sell, and i'll put this on a watch list and wait.

I'd like to see a gap open, then maybe an opp on the pull back.

CUO looking like a great little setup.

Nizar, you got any for the watchlist? Ones that are CFDable, or are you going to only offer up criticism and hold out on us?

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> I'm going to use this stock as a personal exercise in patience, there will be those who sell, and i'll put this on a watch list and wait.
> 
> I'd like to see a gap open, then maybe an opp on the pull back.
> 
> CUO looking like a great little setup.
> 
> Nizar, you got any for the watchlist? Ones that are CFDable, or are you going to only offer up criticism and hold out on us?
> 
> Cheers,





Criticisms???
Well im sorry if you saw it as that.
I posted some good stuff near the beginning of this thread -- seems to have been ignored by you (?)

I call a spade a spade.
If you want me to say every stock is a champion then i will 

I think my opinion on QBE was a valid one, and GDN looks like a dog to me.

I'll tell you what im holding at the moment:
MEO, ESG, CVN, AED, PPP, AUZ, VRE, AOE, MUN, CFE.

And what i will add 2mrw:
ADY, APZ.
MAH after a closer look i think i will pass.
Thank you for APZ.

I have no idea what is CFDable or not. I dont work with CFDs and have no intention of doing so. So i'll leave it upto you to find out which of the above is CFDable or not


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

nizar said:


> Yes this one certainly looks the goods to me.
> 
> Porper, QBE looks like it will range trade for a while.
> The chart is almost an identical copy of how AED was.
> 4 month sideways range bwteen 4.75-5.20. I bought it when it broke the resistance at 5.20. Gapped up the next day i got it on the open at 5.43. Got to 7.50 before any appreciable pullback.
> 
> QBE looks to me like it will range trade for a bit.
> What i would do -- is wait for when it breaks $33. If it does so, it will probably do it on volume, coz plenty of sellers at that level. I would then buy the next days open and a put the stop a touch below $33. This stop would be 50c-ish. Pretty low risk entry to me THEN. Not now.
> 
> Because to validate the uptrend, previous resistance becomes support and upwards and onwards we go.





Sounds like a sucker's play NIZ.........

It could be range traded though which is a valid strategy devoid of the blue skies romance in the eyes thinking. However, this may not meet Can's requirements.


----------



## nizar

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Sounds like a sucker's play NIZ.........
> 
> It could be range traded though which is a valid strategy devoid of the blue skies romance in the eyes thinking. However, this may not meet Can's requirements.




Thanks for your feedback bro.


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Criticisms???
> Well im sorry if you saw it as that.
> I posted some good stuff near the beginning of this thread -- seems to have been ignored by you (?)
> 
> I call a spade a spade.
> If you want me to say every stock is a champion then i will
> 
> I think my opinion on QBE was a valid one, and GDN looks like a dog to me.
> 
> I'll tell you what im holding at the moment:
> MEO, ESG, CVN, AED, PPP, AUZ, VRE, AOE, MUN, CFE.
> 
> And what i will add 2mrw:
> ADY, APZ.
> MAH after a closer look i think i will pass.
> Thank you for APZ.
> 
> I have no idea what is CFDable or not. I dont work with CFDs and have no intention of doing so. So i'll leave it upto you to find out which of the above is CFDable or not




Fine, thanks for your input bro.

Lets try to keep his civil, and constructive shall we....

I don't need to know what your holding Nizar, this isn't a penis length comp. I was just interested in the some of the types of setups you like and why, maybe something unique you'd like to offer. This in't just about me, but hopefully something others can learn from too.

I really thought your opinion of QBE was very typical, and it was good discussion.

Cheers mate, keep the good stuff coming, and good luck tomorrow


----------



## lesm

CanOz said:


> I'm going to open two positions Monday morning (theoretical), QBE, and MAH.



Can,

A couple of simple questions, if I may, especially as this is meant as a learning thread.

On what basis are you going to open a position on QBE?

What is your plan for trading QBE itself and over what timeframe?

A couple of suggestions:

Re-look a the QBE chart in the weekly and monthly timeframes (trying looking at it using candlesticks, as well as bars).

Re-read the comments associated with QBE, especially motorway's.

Will be interested in your comments or questions.

Cheers.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

lesm said:


> Can,
> On what basis are you going to open a position on QBE?
> 
> What is your plan for trading QBE itself and over what timeframe?




Some valid questions here.


----------



## CanOz

Yes, all valid questions.

Even in the candlesticks i see the sellers drying up, this type of consolidation to me looks like a good setup for a quick move up. How far? Well i would say recent highs as a minimum.

Some more notes on the chart. I'll try to have a look later and see how it opens. I'll purchase the theoretical parcel if it breaks Fridays high today or tomorrow..hows that, a little more confirmation.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Can 

I can't see a problem with QBE either, based on what you say.

meeting a trend. Its in a continuation pattern. only worry with your entry is it still may act very volitile due to the confirmed range its in.

watch any price at or over 32.60 as on two three separate occasions it fell back rather fast. A break above the top resistance is a great place to add! Other point to watch is if it dose not move up that trend line, then i would look for more confirmation.

great part of entering on the bottom of the range is better stops that is how i play on FX, but be ready for more volitity while it's in that range. 

Good trading,


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> Can
> 
> I can't see a problem with QBE either, based on what you say.
> 
> meeting a trend. Its in a continuation pattern. only worry with your entry is it still may act very volitile due to the confirmed range its in.
> 
> watch any price at or over 32.60 as on two three separate occasions it fell back rather fast. A break above the top resistance is a great place to add! Other point to watch is if it dose not move up that trend line, then i would look for more confirmation.
> 
> great part of entering on the bottom of the range is better stops that is how i play on FX, but be ready for more volitity while it's in that range.
> 
> Good trading,




Thanks TI, good to here another opinion, i love your use of the humble trend line. Amazing that so many have different opinions about this one, thats one reason why i chose to post it. 

Anyway QBE needs to move in the right direction before i add it to the somewhat empty portfolio atm.

Cheers,


----------



## CFD

Can what do you mean by CFDable? IG's list of stocks, which I think you are using, gives the margin, stop loss cost and whether the stock can be sold short.


----------



## CFD

Trade_It said:


> ~~
> great part of entering on the bottom of the range is better stops that is how i play on FX, but be ready for more volitity while it's in that range.
> Good trading,




But just how many chances do you give it to break through it's latest residence, before it has a far greater chance of falling through it's latest support?


----------



## CanOz

CFD said:


> Can what do you mean by CFDable? IG's list of stocks, which I think you are using, gives the margin, stop loss cost and whether the stock can be sold short.




Yeah thats right. The reason i want to use that as the universe, is that its more realistically what i would normally trade.

Because i am overseas, the list is slightly more restricted as they only let me trade 'controlled risk'.

I wanted to keep the concept simple here, so i'm using 75k unleveraged as capital, even though i would normally use 30k-40k with CFDs.

Cheers,


----------



## CFD

CFD said:


> But just how many chances do you give it to break through it's latest residence, ~~




residence, resistance, what's the difference? Be nice to be able edit the dam thing.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CFD said:


> But just how many chances do you give it to break through it's latest residence, before it has a far greater chance of falling through it's latest support?




CFD,

I follow the trend so the market of QBE is a uptrend so I look to go long I would never short it.

If it marched straight though that trend line the situation changes for me the current angle of buyer support is broken. If that happened I would wait to see it can break resistance on a strong bar/candle with volume. To make my first small position once I see it make a small drop and recover confirming resistance as support then I would add.

Like i said that trend line is its pathway right now I look at how it moves on that angle into the over head resistance line which is showing a continuation patten right now.

That sideways band may keep going for a while breaking the angle then I will watch and wait for a confirmation of the pattern to be a buy or a fail (it breaks the support point of the pattern.). It does not worry me how many times it touches that resistance line all that matters is the break out! ( the more touches the more potent the break out Sometimes! )


----------



## tech/a

*Trade it.*

Trendlines can be drawn as you know from any timeframe.
In a short timeframe the trend has been well and truely broken.
Jury is out on wether *this pattern is distribution OR accumulation*.
Ive held this for years and agree with your trend analysis.
However if i was thinking of buying into now I would have the concerns of ambiguity.

*CanOz*
Has I believe a problem in identifying LOW RISK trades.
This I would simply pass.
Others are much easier.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> *Trade it.*
> 
> Trendlines can be drawn as you know from any timeframe.
> In a short timeframe the trend has been well and truely broken.
> Jury is out on wether *this pattern is distribution OR accumulation*.
> Ive held this for years and agree with your trend analysis.
> However if i was thinking of buying into now I would have the concerns of ambiguity.
> 
> *CanOz*
> Has I believe a problem in identifying LOW RISK trades.
> This I would simply pass.
> Others are much easier.




Heres one i posted the other day, what about 2580 shares at 5.58? Stop at 5.29?


----------



## motorway

QBE is interesting and later I might review it with more detail

But Tech is right on the money

Surely there are much better candidates ?

Trade it are those trend lines relevant now ?
And Would it not be better to see 
narrow range bars and low volume as the price approached it ?
indicating no supply

As it stands everyman and his dog can draw and see that line
I am sure it could explain a bit of buying
But the fact that there is selling ( too much vol for Me )
Is a concern

AS is the bar on the 21st of June
And the response since
 Can .. Does that bar really suggest accumulation ???


I am not saying it wont swing back up
But it looks relatively weak

Tech is right

Where are the standout charts that scream
BUY and NOW ?

Also 

How are you factoring the trend in the mkt 
and position and timing

What is you time frame
what magnitude of moves 
are you drawing trend lines from
what moves are you trying to catch

motorway


----------



## CanOz

motorway said:


> How are you factoring the trend in the mkt
> and position and timing
> 
> What is you time frame
> what magnitude of moves
> are you drawing trend lines from
> what moves are you trying to catch
> 
> motorway




Ok, i had the notes on the chart MWay. QBE is on the watchlist, nothing more. 

Lets find those screamers then hey.

I like DJS, APZ's not exactly screaming buy me today, maybe tomorrow. MAH is looking real good, whats the upside target here? Why can't we just jump on until it stops us out?

(gosh its nice not too have to worry about an ego...otherwise who would ask all of these stupid questions?) 



Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

MAH, a vouple of options assuming i can get them at 1.33.

Check it out. Nizar, you like this now or you still crook on it?

Cheers,


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

> Why can't we just jump on until it stops us out?
> (gosh its nice not too have to worry about an ego...otherwise who would ask all of these stupid questions?)



Can,

I think you are doing a good thing by initiating this thread. It has drawn a lot of opinions out of the members.

The higlighted sentence in red is recipe for failure in my opinion - more so, the attitude that creates that sentence.(no offence intended)

It's more than just TA as you know but I think a lot don't actually think about it to the degree that the top 3 percent do.


----------



## CanOz

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Can,
> 
> I think you are doing a good thing by initiating this thread. It has drawn a lot of opinions out of the members.
> 
> The higlighted sentence in red is recipe for failure in my opinion - more so, the attitude that creates that sentence.(no offence intended)
> 
> It's more than just TA as you know but I think a lot don't actually think about it to the degree that the top 3 percent do.




Hi Snake. I guess the point i was trying to make is that profit targets are fine for the initial calculation of R/R right, but isn't the whole idea to let them run. So we need to use the inital target to evaluate the trade potential, but realistically we don't know the time frame or the eventual selling point.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

*Can *

Your right and so is Snake and M/W.
Lets take MAH.
Buy was at open $1.29 resk was calculated froem there.
No problems with the level now it only adjusts your position size.
Unless you adjust the stop position.
I cant see why---thats why I like it it can be tight with LOW risk of being taken out. Supply has so far proven to be lacking.

In the overall picture of things trading in a discretionary manner rather than mechanical we need some guidelines as to what we can milk on this move.
Where its likely to go and when it does stop wether this is likley to be a corrective move or a correction in the longer term move.
We can analyse this later (dont have the time now),but once on the trade we need to have some guidelines.
Nearly at 1:1 R/R now.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tech/a said:


> *Trade it.*
> 
> Trendlines can be drawn as you know from any timeframe.
> In a short timeframe the trend has been well and truely broken.
> Jury is out on wether *this pattern is distribution OR accumulation*.
> Ive held this for years and agree with your trend analysis.
> However if i was thinking of buying into now I would have the concerns of ambiguity.




Agree with you Tech, thanks for your constructive point of veiw.

that short term angle stands for me and weather the price re confirms it will be seen. if it does confirm it it add to my evidence that the pattern is bullish.

Jury is out on wether *this pattern is distribution OR accumulation*.

i totally agree with that as well, but as said above that angle is somthing i am looking to a refence into buyer mentality 

weather that line stands or not is up to the market to decide that is my time element to wait and see weather the market follows that angle into the near future.

the pattern, stands. as Tech said the jury is out on it. the price could move either way, one further bearish point as MW says's below volume is not acting in the normal way it does in a cont pattern.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

motorway said:


> QBE is interesting and later I might review it with more detail
> 
> But Tech is right on the money
> 
> Surely there are much better candidates ?
> 
> Trade it are those trend lines relevant now ?
> And Would it not be better to see
> narrow range bars and low volume as the price approached it ?
> indicating no supply
> 
> As it stands everyman and his dog can draw and see that line
> I am sure it could explain a bit of buying
> But the fact that there is selling ( too much vol for Me )
> Is a concern
> 
> AS is the bar on the 21st of June
> And the response since
> Can .. Does that bar really suggest accumulation ???
> 
> 
> I am not saying it wont swing back up
> But it looks relatively weak
> 
> Tech is right
> 
> Where are the standout charts that scream
> BUY and NOW ?
> 
> Also
> 
> How are you factoring the trend in the mkt
> and position and timing
> 
> What is you time frame
> what magnitude of moves
> are you drawing trend lines from
> what moves are you trying to catch
> 
> motorway




MW,

no offense i normally hold all your posts in high regard. I did get very much out of that and disagree with couple things you said.

You did not really get what I was saying.

I never said go long on QBE, so i guess that's the beauty of trading difference of opinion.

MW

Please tell me what you see in the chart below, I am very interested so see how our thoughts compare.


----------



## tech/a

TI

Yes good point on trend angle---they dont go vertical for long (Extreme view).
Good trends run at around 45 degrees.
Less are weak,more are strong---but have an expiry date!


----------



## motorway

Hi trade

All the comments were in the context of Can putting it up as a long candidate
To take at this time..

As far as I am concerned We are all beginners and
We have our blind spots..

So this is a good thread..

You have a very good tape reader as a signature
You might agree it was when he doubted the tape he went wrong..

An old tape reading saying
is support that appears Were it is obvious that it should
is suspicious...

Like the trend line on QBE

Tape readers read the tape
That meant they were seeing stocks in context of the mkt
You followed stocks as the ticker spat them out
A bit different to bringing up a 5 min chart and just watching it..

QBE is really just tracing out the same pattern as the broader mkt
The only thing I can see that sets it apart
is that it is weaker

hence Why I said that I would be more confident going short at the top of the next swing than long at the bottom of this one..

Just throwing up thoughts as they come

I do think the bar on the 21st is defining

As this range continues
I would want to see swings narrowing
( as I would like to see in the broader mkt )

Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...

And I don't mean to be a know it all
Just sharing

cheers

motorway


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

CanOz said:


> Hi Snake. I guess the point i was trying to make is that profit targets are fine for the initial calculation of R/R right, but isn't the whole idea to let them run. So we need to use the inital target to evaluate the trade potential, but realistically we don't know the time frame or the eventual selling point.
> Cheers,



Can,

I know you know but flippant statements don't portray what you really think. If so it is disaster.

But here inlies the paradox: we do - more obviously we do not.

Our rules and guidelines tells us when we MIGHT expect to sell - profit target. It is a frame of reference our soccer field so to speak. Cross the line and we know what we have to do - once again our rules tells us what to do. If the other team crosses into the goalline we take a loss, if we cross into their goal line we take a profit or we choose to let it run depending on what our rules are. But we do know when we will sell that is why we take the trade on in the first place - only the date is lacking.

Cheers....


----------



## motorway

oops only saw the chart after I replied

Not a mkt I have followed

But I see warning signs and weakness

We have to infer volume
BUT

there is preliminary supply ( previous rally top )
looks to be some real stoping climatic action ?
Which has lead to the good sized retrace

So I would tighten the stop ( If I had been riding the trend )
and I would wait to see it either range ( it could do what QBE is doing )
Or start the next move If I was looking to make an initial  entry

preliminary supply + stopping action+
Significant retrace

Change of dynamics...Too early to say change of trend
But at the least if continuation a change in the angle of trend.

motorway


----------



## tech/a

*Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...*

Worth repeating.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

motorway said:


> Hi trade
> 
> hi Motorway
> 
> All the comments were in the context of Can putting it up as a long candidate
> To take at this time..
> 
> I see what you said and I agree QBE is not a great trade to pick up today as there is a lot for it to prove on the up and down side.
> 
> The XJO and all ords are in a similar position.
> 
> As far as I am concerned We are all beginners and
> We have our blind spots..
> 
> Tell me about it. What amazes me with trading is you never truly stop learning and being some sought of beginner
> 
> So this is a good thread..
> 
> *It is and Can sorry for taking it off topic to a degree*
> 
> You have a very good tape reader as a signature
> You might agree it was when he doubted the tape he went wrong..
> 
> I hold livermore in the higest regards I have read how to trade in stocks many times now and i still get so much out of his wisdom. I have applied many of his trading methods to my trading I also like another great tape reader Gann as well but I have been selective with his techniques that I use I have combined parts of both of them. hence how I look at angles and trends.
> 
> An old tape reading saying
> is support that appears Were it is obvious that it should
> is suspicious...
> 
> Like the trend line on QBE
> 
> Tape readers read the tape
> That meant they were seeing stocks in context of the mkt
> You followed stocks as the ticker spat them out
> A bit different to bringing up a 5 min chart and just watching it..
> 
> QBE is really just tracing out the same pattern as the broader mkt
> The only thing I can see that sets it apart
> is that it is weaker
> 
> hence Why I said that I would be more confident going short at the top of the next swing than long at the bottom of this one..
> 
> That is a very valid point, I guess your exprience make that picture clearer to your eye then mine but I see that picture as well.
> 
> Just throwing up thoughts as they come
> 
> I do think the bar on the 21st is defining
> 
> As this range continues
> I would want to see swings narrowing
> ( as I would like to see in the broader mkt )
> 
> Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...
> 
> And I don't mean to be a know it all
> Just sharing
> 
> cheers
> 
> motorway




Thank you for that MW found a lot of points in there very good stuff. I am no tape reader but I do like to see things form and confirm. Thank you again for posting your experience. 

Can this is all I will say and let your thread get back on course.


----------



## CFD

tech/a said:


> *Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...*
> 
> Worth repeating.




Yes he has some classics, I also like this one 

"Buy support WITH strength
Sell resistance WITH Weakness"

simply because amongst all the complexities it's easy to overlook the obvious.

I'm sure MW wouldn't mind, I've started a text file on my desktop and these are going in it.


----------



## tech/a

*CFD.*

Interested in how you and others define/indentify.(Not motorway).
*Weakness
Strength.*
I think this is a very important point for both long and short term.
identification in both long and short term timeframes.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

motorway said:


> oops only saw the chart after I replied
> 
> Not a mkt I have followed
> 
> But I see warning signs and weakness
> 
> We have to infer volume
> BUT
> 
> there is preliminary supply ( previous rally top )
> looks to be some real stoping climatic action ?
> Which has lead to the good sized retrace
> 
> So I would tighten the stop ( If I had been riding the trend )
> and I would wait to see it either range ( it could do what QBE is doing )
> Or start the next move If I was looking to make an initial  entry
> 
> preliminary supply + stopping action+
> Significant retrace
> 
> Change of dynamics...Too early to say change of trend
> But at the least if continuation a change in the angle of trend.
> 
> motorway





Can hope you dont find this off topic.

Motor Way.

The trend it sits on is a Gann Line so moving in time price harmony. the break off that angle followed up by the unstablle price lead to the reaction or price moving back.

I have two lines minor resistance and minor support were i see the price has stabblised.

The price has moved above the minor resistance right now and now has one more objective to beat the 45 degree resistence to to confirm continuing upwards. If beaten I will take a long.

If that current angle is broken then a new trend need to be seen.

That's my take.

*I want to thank you and Tech for spending time to give your thoughts and experience, in all the threads.

Helps us all see things from different views    *


Cheers
Joseph


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> MAH, a vouple of options assuming i can get them at 1.33.
> 
> Check it out. Nizar, you like this now or you still crook on it?
> 
> Cheers,




Can.
MAH looking good, im liking the more loose stop level at $1.17 but $1.22 is also good. Note the 10yrs high is actually $1.19.

(Also note that im the most amateur out of every1 here!)


----------



## tcoates

Can,



> Check it out. Nizar, you like this now or you still crook on it?




Not sure about Nizar, but good luck if it works for you. The only reason why I would not be trading it is that it does not fit in with my method and would not be in my universe of stocks. 

Time will tell whether it is a steal at $1.33.

Tim


----------



## tech/a

> im liking the more loose stop level at $1.17




*WHY???*


----------



## CFD

tech/a said:


> *CFD.*
> 
> Interested in how you and others define/indentify.(Not motorway).
> *Weakness
> Strength.*
> I think this is a very important point for both long and short term.
> identification in both long and short term timeframes.




I thought these two went together rather well: 
1/. Tape readers say How things happen are more important that what is happening...
2/. define/identify Weakness and Strength.

When looking at QBE I'm learning (I think) to see potential weakness, not because of what's happening to it's moving averages (or other trend indicators) but because any days with volume buying are quickly met with days of volume selling. (As MW would say, the sellers have not been satisfied!)  

As to weakness and strength, I now use bar charts with volume histograms to look for this and note that weakness can just as easily appear in up days and strength in down days.


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> *WHY???*




Because it could bounce off $1.19 and then run like a champion since this is the resistance from 10yrs ago.

Or is it not significant because its so historical?

If its not significant then why did you mention it at all?

Thanks.


----------



## tech/a

Nizar.
I'm not having a go at you OR anyone else and I'm not attempting to make anyone seem like an idiot!
I ask questions like this so you and others ask the same questions/of yourself.

The question I always ask myself is why give a losing trade MORE room to LOSE!
I'll answer tonight in more detail and look further forward with this trade.


----------



## CFD

nizar said:


> Or is it not significant because its so historical?
> Thanks.




Some would say yes, some would say no, but that's not the point. The point is you had a good answer and if tech/a had not asked why??? it would have gone straight over my head.


----------



## nizar

Trade_It said:


> but normally lowering a stop is a major nono. stops should only move one way up.......




Not sure if this is directed towards me.
But i never move stops down.

What is being discussed here it placement of the initial sotp.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

nizar said:


> Not sure if this is directed towards me.
> But i never move stops down.
> 
> What is being discussed here it placement of the initial sotp.




I was totally off the mark there Nizar! very sorry!

I would never think for the slightest moment you would ever do that! : )

Nizar on to your actual topic what is your stop system is % or T/a based?

I use % of overall cap. as i trade CFD's on indexes and Fx its at 5%. as they like to move a fair amount in the period


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Not sure if this is directed towards me.
> But i never move stops down.
> 
> What is being discussed here it placement of the initial sotp.




Ok, and please keep the comments coming, it doesn't hurt to get a little off track either, as long as you bring the subject yourself too.

The stop level to me, and where i would always make mistakes, needs to be a proven strong technical support. Take MAH, the stronger support looks to me like the older support as Nizar pointed out, but then it takes the trad out for R/R reasons.

Looking at QBE, from a stop point of view ONLY, it has proven support at that lower level, more so than it would have had at the higher level in my view as it already failed that move....Not that we're considering it...but only from the view of the R/R.

So bearing this in mind everyone, the ideal trade is what?

-Strong close support
-very bullish trend
-confirming price action
-A short term target that you can estimate and that has a good reward for that risk taken

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Also for consideration and for those reading along that are wondering what a profit stop is, here is an example of a stock that may have hit some profit stops today. Most profit stops would be set much higher right, but this gives you a general idea of what the price action might look like on a profit stop...Whats the % increase that most of you use on your systems? 20, 30. 40% increase in so many bars?

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Well i bought MAH at 1.34 for my paper traded portfolio. Since were trading based on EOD Friday, i waited until we had a good strong close today then lets say i bought them at market and got them at 1.34.

When i did my FFP i used 1.33, so i ended up buying 7500 based on a 1.23 initial stop. So i actually went over my allowed risk, oops, is this a bad thing?

Comments on my purchase.....basically i just went and did it as we'd be forever talking about it...

Cheers,

Disclosure ( i don't actually own them, i just pretended to buy them)


----------



## Porper

CanOz said:


> Well i bought MAH at 1.34 for my paper traded portfolio. Since were trading based on EOD Friday, i waited until we had a good strong close today then lets say i bought them at market and got them at 1.34.
> 
> When i did my FFP i used 1.33, so i ended up buying 7500 based on a 1.23 initial stop. So i actually went over my allowed risk, oops, is this a bad thing?
> 
> Comments on my purchase.....basically i just went and did it as we'd be forever talking about it...
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Disclosure ( i don't actually own them, i just pretended to buy them)




Good on ya for pulling the trigger Can, we could have discussed the pros and cons of each stock forever and never got on with it.

I personally wouldn't have gone with MAh, but we are all different.

To me it looks like it is just dying to retrace having had a surge and a half all at once.

First support to me is around $1.10, then good support at under a dollar.It has type A bearish divergence and is way overbought.

Having said that I am wrong more often than I am right so it will probably do well


----------



## tcoates

Can - the ideal trade is one that works in your favor. Or...there is no such thing as the ideal trade.  If you could define the ideal trade then... ???

what you do therefore is work the probabilities out in your favor so that you have a chance of "winning", using a combination of the indicators and/or oscillators. Or you might follow EW or be a fan of Gann. If we knew the ideal trade, we would take it every time 

The point is the ideal trade will be different for different people. Though the end result (the goal) is the same... $$$

Tim


----------



## CanOz

tcoaates_au said:


> Can - the ideal trade is one that works in your favor. Or...there is no such thing as the ideal trade.  If you could define the ideal trade then... ???
> 
> what you do therefore is work the probabilities out in your favor so that you have a chance of "winning", using a combination of the indicators and/or oscillators. Or you might follow EW or be a fan of Gann. If we knew the ideal trade, we would take it every time
> 
> The point is the ideal trade will be different for different people. Though the end result (the goal) is the same... $$$
> 
> Tim




Yeah all true, but i guess maybe we need define what R/R we're looking for before we go looking...what is the acceptable R/R that most here like when trading descretionary system?

3:1, 4:1?

Porper, lol! Yes i thought bugger it, lets get into a trade. I'll have to update the spread sheet now, we have 750 less capital to risk and 7500 less capital to invest with now.

Go MAH!....ooops was that "hope" coming out.


Cheers,


----------



## questionall_42

CanOz said:


> Well i bought MAH at 1.34 for my paper traded portfolio. Since were trading based on EOD Friday, i waited until we had a good strong close today then lets say i bought them at market and got them at 1.34.
> 
> When i did my FFP i used 1.33, so i ended up buying 7500 based on a 1.23 initial stop. *So i actually went over my allowed risk, oops, is this a bad thing*?
> 
> Comments on my purchase.....*basically i just went and did it as we'd be forever talking about it...*
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Disclosure ( i don't actually own them, i just pretended to buy them)




Can - going over your allocated risk is NOT a good thing.  You create rules to follow, and although this just paper trading, this is an exercise in working out how to make profitable trades _for you_.  Part of this exercise should be to find out what your risk/return should be.

Also, you did mention earlier in this thread that you are lacking patience (i couldn't find it just now).  And if you are impatient for a paper trade, then this spells trouble for the real thing.  

Picking stocks is one factor in a good return; your trading psychology is as important.

Btw, I commend you for taking public and good luck.


----------



## CanOz

questionall_42 said:


> Can - going over your allocated risk is NOT a good thing.  You create rules to follow, and although this just paper trading, this is an exercise in working out how to make profitable trades _for you_.  Part of this exercise should be to find out what your risk/return should be. *Bugger, sorry. Oh well, what should i have done, i tried to get them at 1.33?*
> 
> Also, you did mention earlier in this thread that you are lacking patience (i couldn't find it just now).  And if you are impatient for a paper trade, then this spells trouble for the real thing. *As far as emotions go, its my biggest downfall, afraid to miss out, whats yours? *
> 
> Picking stocks is one factor in a good return; your trading psychology is as important. *Absolutley, i'm on the last chapter of "Trading in The Zone" now, great book, for life too, not just trading.*
> 
> Btw, I commend you for taking public and good luck.



 I hope you're learning as much as me, i just wish we could all do this in person, its much easier to understand the goodwill and intent.


----------



## ice

CanOz said:


> When i did my FFP i used 1.33, so i ended up buying 7500 based on a 1.23 initial stop. So i actually went over my allowed risk, oops, is this a bad thing?





Yes; you either have rules or you don't. What you are in effect saying is that you don't.

Gutsy though to do all this in public. I hope it all comes together for you.


ice


----------



## tech/a

OK.
I bought this at $1.29 this morning.(So there is someone who is trading it--good bad and the ugly).
So lets think about what's happened *CanOz.*

The trade "had" a low risk entry with a much better R/R with a 7c stop that a stop at 17c risk.
So first thing Id pick up on is pulling the trigger when you are in the position to take advantage of an opportunity.By widening the risk (Stop) the trade becomes mediocre.

*Firstly on the stop.*

Highs/Lows which are 10 yrs old are not going to act as much resistance or support,whatever the case maybe.
Think about why support and resistance works.
Lets look at resistance. The closer a high is to a retest the more influence it will have.Particularly if you have very high volume on the old high with a long range bar,and price corrects with a "V" top. Many will have been caught in this type of move and will be happy to get their money back.Hence selling normally comes in and acts as resistance at these "Nearby" levels.

So it is unlikely that holders of stock at the 10 yr high are eager to sell out now.I mentioned the 10 yr high simply to point out that its been 10 yrs since MAH has been here.

So first chart the Reasoning behind my trade/stop and other reasons why I saw this as low risk.




OK
Now I'm in the trade I want an "Idea" where this could go.I dont know and my analysis will only give me a guide.The story is being painted bar by bar and the whole picture is being played out in the past price history. I want like everyone else to gain as much as I can from the move. (I actually wish to do this by Friday as I'm leaving for a few weeks to have some R&R on an Island )
I dont wish to leave a new trade open when away for a few weeks---Anyway. 

From the wave count from GET this "Could" be near its Wave 3 completion.
So some here maybe correct in that this is screaming correction.I cant personally see any signs of this.The count may not be correct--GET does get it wrong and so do I.But I think this has atleast $1.44 possibly beyond particularly if we continue to see lack of selling and consistent buying.




Now while you dont have the software and it is handy but not a necessity,I include it in the hope that you may get an Idea of the way I'm thinking on this. *Others will/may have different views*.But analysis is there to be proven correct or to be proven incorrect (to borrow a Radgism).

So back to your buy.
My position is currently more profitable and will continue to be so.
As my stop is closer and I could purchase more with the SAME risk.
I took the opportunity based upon my analysis earlier.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> OK.
> I bought this at $1.29 this morning.(So there is someone who is trading it--good bad and the ugly).
> So lets think about what's happened *CanOz.*
> 
> The trade "had" a low risk entry with a much better R/R with a 7c stop that a stop at 17c risk.
> So first thing Id pick up on is pulling the trigger when you are in the position to take advantage of an opportunity.By widening the risk (Stop) the trade becomes mediocre.
> 
> *Firstly on the stop.*
> 
> Highs/Lows which are 10 yrs old are not going to act as much resistance or support,whatever the case maybe.
> Think about why support and resistance works.
> Lets look at resistance. The closer a high is to a retest the more influence it will have.Particularly if you have very high volume on the old high with a long range bar,and price corrects with a "V" top. Many will have been caught in this type of move and will be happy to get their money back.Hence selling normally comes in and acts as resistance at these "Nearby" levels.
> 
> So it is unlikely that holders of stock at the 10 yr high are eager to sell out now.I mentioned the 10 yr high simply to point out that its been 10 yrs since MAH has been here.
> 
> So first chart the Reasoning behind my trade/stop and other reasons why I saw this as low risk.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> OK
> Now I'm in the trade I want an "Idea" where this could go.I dont know and my analysis will only give me a guide.The story is being painted bar by bar and the whole picture is being played out in the past price history. I want like everyone else to gain as much as I can from the move. (I actually wish to do this by Friday as I'm leaving for a few weeks to have some R&R on an Island )
> I dont wish to leave a new trade open when away for a few weeks---Anyway.
> 
> From the wave count from GET this "Could" be near its Wave 3 completion.
> So some here maybe correct in that this is screaming correction.I cant personally see any signs of this.The count may not be correct--GET does get it wrong and so do I.But I think this has atleast $1.44 possibly beyond particularly if we continue to see lack of selling and consistent buying.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Now while you dont have the software and it is handy but not a necessity,I include it in the hope that you may get an Idea of the way I'm thinking on this. *Others will/may have different views*.But analysis is there to be proven correct or to be proven incorrect (to borrow a Radgism).
> 
> So back to your buy.
> My position is currently more profitable and will continue to be so.
> As my stop is closer and I could purchase more with the SAME risk.
> I took the opportunity based upon my analysis earlier.




Good on ya!:

Pretty gutsy buy, see i chickened out and waited for confirmation...maybe i had no need to, but you didn't wait, so in your mind, as long as there was no great fall, that was enough to buy it?

Cheers,

PS, just give me your account codes and i'll manage your stop for you while your gone


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Can,

as i see tech sharing trades and you too.

this is my AUD trade that I made last Thursday.

Ok, i am more aggressive in FX due to the way the market moves.

The set up was watching a retrace happening as u see i have marked down 1 2 3 points of support made on my minor support line just before the green entry period. that showed a double bottom with the shadow of the last red period.

with the new green period showing aggressive buying with confirmed support in the 50% fibb range backing up my minor three touch support combined with the current trend line being un tested and resumed a long it, was the evidence to go long, as you can see it worked out.

my intial stop was at 83.28 under the 50% point and under the low point of the shadow. I do not like to place stops on solid numers support always like to move off them. but my stop is now at 84.90 tonight i will do a break down to start planing a retrace.

I do not use gann in any FX plays as fx does not seam to care about 45 degree harmony to much. And I was warned against it buy a privet fx trader as it can be unreliable. I use minor support with trend direction, FIBB.

hope that can give you new ideas to ponder.

All the best.

cheers
Joseph


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> OK.
> I bought this at $1.29 this morning.(So there is someone who is trading it--good bad and the ugly).
> So lets think about what's happened *CanOz.*
> 
> The trade "had" a low risk entry with a much better R/R with a 7c stop that a stop at 17c risk.
> So first thing Id pick up on is pulling the trigger when you are in the position to take advantage of an opportunity.By widening the risk (Stop) the trade becomes mediocre.
> 
> *Firstly on the stop.*
> 
> Highs/Lows which are 10 yrs old are not going to act as much resistance or support,whatever the case maybe.
> Think about why support and resistance works.
> Lets look at resistance. The closer a high is to a retest the more influence it will have.Particularly if you have very high volume on the old high with a long range bar,and price corrects with a "V" top. Many will have been caught in this type of move and will be happy to get their money back.Hence selling normally comes in and acts as resistance at these "Nearby" levels.
> 
> So it is unlikely that holders of stock at the 10 yr high are eager to sell out now.I mentioned the 10 yr high simply to point out that its been 10 yrs since MAH has been here.
> 
> So first chart the Reasoning behind my trade/stop and other reasons why I saw this as low risk.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> OK
> Now I'm in the trade I want an "Idea" where this could go.I dont know and my analysis will only give me a guide.The story is being painted bar by bar and the whole picture is being played out in the past price history. I want like everyone else to gain as much as I can from the move. (I actually wish to do this by Friday as I'm leaving for a few weeks to have some R&R on an Island )
> I dont wish to leave a new trade open when away for a few weeks---Anyway.
> 
> From the wave count from GET this "Could" be near its Wave 3 completion.
> So some here maybe correct in that this is screaming correction.I cant personally see any signs of this.The count may not be correct--GET does get it wrong and so do I.But I think this has atleast $1.44 possibly beyond particularly if we continue to see lack of selling and consistent buying.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Now while you dont have the software and it is handy but not a necessity,I include it in the hope that you may get an Idea of the way I'm thinking on this. *Others will/may have different views*.But analysis is there to be proven correct or to be proven incorrect (to borrow a Radgism).
> 
> So back to your buy.
> My position is currently more profitable and will continue to be so.
> As my stop is closer and I could purchase more with the SAME risk.
> I took the opportunity based upon my analysis earlier.




Tech, thanks for taking the time.
Some great stuff here.

T.I.
To answer your question i use 1% of initial capital for stops and position sizing.

Can.
AED nice one, im still holding. The topic of estimated R/R and profit stops/targets is one of interest to me, because usually, since i buy stocks in as much blue sky as possible, i find it hard to calculate a point where the run may be exhausted. I just let them go for as long as possible, pyramiding into the winners on the pullbacks and raising the stops when a new support level is made. Exit is triggered when the trailing stop is hit.


----------



## CanOz

> The topic of estimated R/R and profit stops/targets is one of interest to me, because usually, since i buy stocks in as much blue sky as possible, i find it hard to calculate a point where the run may be exhausted. I just let them go for as long as possible, pyramiding into the winners on the pullbacks and raising the stops when a new support level is made.




Yeah, me too, a great interest....and there are plenty of traders that do exactly that, set the inital stop, and just ride the trend.

From the quote i just posted on the 97% loser thread....gotta love it.



> !  However, it is always in your best interest (as a trader) to manage your exposure so that your profits are protected while at the same time you are positioned to benefit while the trend continues. This is maximizing your market exposure.  *This is why many professionals use trailing stops more often than targets. *The trailing stop allows the professional to manage profitable positions with the trend so profits continue to grow for the full duration of the move.


----------



## CanOz

> hope that can give you new ideas to ponder.
> 
> All the best.
> 
> cheers
> Joseph




Thanks TI, what you have there is called confluence right? Several indicatos, S & R , Fibb, supporting the same concluesion making for a higher probability outcome...Applicable to any timeframe too?

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

An example of a different type of trade with a low risk entry.

*MAR*

(Not advice simply an example,seek your own advice I'm a builder!).


----------



## happytrader

CanOz said:


> Well i bought MAH at 1.34 for my paper traded portfolio. Since were trading based on EOD Friday, i waited until we had a good strong close today then lets say i bought them at market and got them at 1.34.
> 
> When i did my FFP i used 1.33, so i ended up buying 7500 based on a 1.23 initial stop. So i actually went over my allowed risk, oops, is this a bad thing?
> 
> Comments on my purchase.....basically i just went and did it as we'd be forever talking about it...
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Disclosure ( i don't actually own them, i just pretended to buy them)




Well done for waiting for a strong close and (hypothetically) buying at EOD.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## CFD

happytrader said:


> Well done for waiting for a strong close and (hypothetically) buying at EOD.
> 
> Cheers
> Happytrader




I guess a question is, was the day before a strong close?
On tech/a's chart the high volume spike on 27/6 did not indicate sellers had been satisfied (ie overtaken by buyers), so I'm thinking Can did well to wait another day for confirmation.


----------



## IFocus

HI Can

MAH seems to short term for me for where it is in terms of probability more about this later

I though maybe some thing like SEK might be more your story, have a look at the weekly hope this helps

Focus


----------



## CanOz

IFocus said:


> HI Can
> 
> MAH seems to short term for me for where it is in terms of probability more about this later
> 
> I though maybe some thing like SEK might be more your story, have a look at the weekly hope this helps
> 
> Focus




Yes i agree and i have had it on a watchlist for a while now. I love that consoladation on or near recent highs, seems to have the effect of gradually removing the weaker hands from the supply, IMO.

You want to suggest where a strong support might be? I'm thinking apex?

Excellent opportunity....not sure its the kind Tech prefers, but we need all sorts right?

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
Thats the beauty of technical trading---subjective analysis.
I will see something different to what others see.
Being right or wrong isnt the question.
*Being profitable in the long run is!!*


----------



## CanOz

Really like the confluence on the weekly too.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
> My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
> But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
> Thats the beauty of technical trading---subjective analysis.
> I will see something different to what others see.
> Being right or wrong isnt the question.
> *Being profitable in the long run is!!*




Thanks Tech, well said. Do you have a scan that you use for those setups? 

On the short side, i noticed more sells and less buys on my scans last nite...that doesn't mean theres lots of shorting opps around, just more unconfirmed signals. They could all disappear after today....

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Really like the confluence on the weekly too.




Can, SEK has also been on my watchlist for a while. I will be looking for a entry with a strong break above $7.60ish with a stop just under the trendline. Refer the SEK thread. Sorry at work and don't have my charts set up here for more detail.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Really like the confluence on the weekly too.




Sek looks like it could turn into a winner.

I am about to look it up and maybe take a play on it if meets to the requirements I have.

Cheers for the lead!


This trade is right out of duchy's hand book wonder if he has spotted it!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tech/a said:


> We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
> My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
> But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.
> Thats the beauty of technical trading---subjective analysis.
> I will see something different to what others see.
> Being right or wrong isnt the question.
> *Being profitable in the long run is!!*




Tech,

Great post,

you really summed it up with that what some see others wont and that is why trading and Technicail analysis is so great there is no standard template we all tweak things in our own way.

Even in EW and Gann each student puts emphasis's on certain parts that suite there character more.

Also Tech, your post also pokes holes in the theory of: self for filling prophecy!


----------



## nizar

nomore4s said:


> Can, SEK has also been on my watchlist for a while. I will be looking for a entry with a strong break above $7.60ish with a stop just under the trendline. Refer the SEK thread. Sorry at work and don't have my charts set up here for more detail.




I tend to agree wholly.
Looks the goods to me.

Very similar to the pattern AED broke out of in May.
Long 4-month consolidation, then a break on volume and a run like a champion.

Have to wait for the break though, a close above $7.60 would do it for me. Obvious resistance on the 3-month daily (shorter timeframe).


----------



## questionall_42

> Originally Posted by questionall_42  (bold from *CanOz*);
> Can - going over your allocated risk is NOT a good thing. You create rules to follow, and although this just paper trading, this is an exercise in working out how to make profitable trades for you. Part of this exercise should be to find out what your risk/return should be. *Bugger, sorry. Oh well, what should i have done, i tried to get them at 1.33?*




_One option is not to have executed the trade at all - you have your conditions/rules, and if you don't live by them, then you are reacting to emotion.  Test and then subsequently change the rules; just don't react.  You will miss opportunities this way, but you can sleep better._



> Originally Posted by questionall_42  (bold from *CanOz*);
> Also, you did mention earlier in this thread that you are lacking patience (i couldn't find it just now). And if you are impatient for a paper trade, then this spells trouble for the real thing. *As far as emotions go, its my biggest downfall, afraid to miss out, whats yours? *




_My biggest downfall is not taking the plunge, particularly buy - I have my rules (i am primarily a F/A) but actually doing it is my downfall.  This thread is helpful for me to work out how to refine my trading system._



> Originally Posted by questionall_42  (bold from *CanOz*);
> Picking stocks is one factor in a good return; your trading psychology is as important. *Absolutley, i'm on the last chapter of "Trading in The Zone" now, great book, for life too, not just trading.*





CanOz said:


> I hope you're learning as much as me, i just wish we could all do this in person, its much easier to understand the goodwill and intent.




_Good stuff. I am indeed learning a lot. Best of luck Can._


----------



## CanOz

> One option is not to have executed the trade at all - you have your conditions/rules, and if you don't live by them, then you are reacting to emotion.




This is an interesting scenario to me. I think what should be done, when picking EOD and buying the next day, would be to calculate the FFR on the worst case, but still acceptable scenario of prices. Eg, i calculated the FFR on 1.33 but i should have calculated it on a higher price that still fell into my acceptable R/R, whatever that may be.

Thoughts on this?

Cheers,

Oh, for those wondering, i missed out on SEK, because of the price increase today i feel it does not meet my requirements for R/R, unless of course it gets sold off in the afternoon, but then, if there is still that much supply, why would i want it now?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Really like the confluence on the weekly too.




Can

One question for you in regards to SEK

I want to know when you would take the trade, confirmation on a weekly trade?

would you take it today or would you wait till Friday afternoon to see exactly where u stand on this break out. as of now the volume is not strong cuz so early in the week.

I personally would wait till friday to make my play. it looks the real deal now but by friday the volume will be clearer.


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Oh, for those wondering, i missed out on SEK, because of the price increase today i feel it does not meet my requirements for R/R, unless of course it gets sold off in the afternoon, but then, if there is still that much supply, why would i want it now?




Hi Can.

What are exactly your requirements for R/R?

Obviously risk is controlled and determined when the stop is placed, but how do you work out the return?
Do you have a price projection/target for this?
If so id be keen to know how you came up with this.

Thanks.


----------



## tech/a

> i missed out on SEK, because of the price increase today i feel it does not meet my requirements for R/R,




*PERSPECTIVE!!*
Yesterday you bought a stock which rose 5c in $1.30

Today you discard a stock which has risen 18c in $7.50
The ratio in todays move in SEK is LESS than yesterdays move in MAH?

This move is likely to be well above 18c!!!


----------



## IFocus

Hi Can

I hate to keep harping on about time frame and there are many aspects to how its applied but lets just look at this.

If you are looking to trade the medium time frame think about where those moves come from that look like AOE. If you breakdown AOE into each move during the up trend  look at where each move comes from or the price structure before it.

I put SEK up as a medium term possible trade as its formed a reasonable base and has a reasonable range up to that base.
I like the premise that “price moves continually from one range to another” I think that came from Stan Weinstein's book. Doesn’t mean SEK will range upwards absolutely as its just about probability

Entry for SEK in this case for me would be $7.63 any where below that has been met with supply. Stop would be below yesterdays bar and add to on break of new high or retest after break. Position size accordingly. 

Hope this helps

Tech whats your time frame?

Focus


----------



## >Apocalypto<

IFocus said:


> Hi Can
> 
> I hate to keep harping on about time frame and there are many aspects to how its applied but lets just look at this.
> 
> If you are looking to trade the medium time frame think about where those moves come from that look like AOE. If you breakdown AOE into each move during the up trend  look at where each move comes from or the price structure before it.
> 
> I put SEK up as a medium term possible trade as its formed a reasonable base and has a reasonable range up to that base.
> I like the premise that “price moves continually from one range to another” I think that came from Stan Weinstein's book. Doesn’t mean SEK will range upwards absolutely as its just about probability
> 
> Entry for SEK in this case for me would be $7.63 any where below that has been met with supply. Stop would be below yesterdays bar and add to on break of new high or retest after break. Position size accordingly.
> 
> Hope this helps
> 
> Tech whats your time frame?
> 
> Focus




Great post IFocus I totally agree


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Trade_It said:


> Tech,
> 
> Great post,
> 
> Also Tech, your post also pokes holes in the theory of: self for filling prophecy!




Oh but it doesn't. You just don't realise it. Charting is self-fullfilling and also corruptive. If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.


----------



## tech/a

> Tech whats your time frame?



I'm looking for a completion of wave 3 (it could have already happened).
But on this trade by the end of the week as I'm going away.



> If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.



*Snake* I see T/A more as analysis of crowd behaviour.
And as crowd behaviour (particularly big crowds) is predictable and can be seen as cyclic as well as repetitive---this is why analysis will have a tendancy to be "self" fulfilling.

Notice also how smaller crowds (trading small caps) can do seamingly radical things---spike either way! Or be more volatile or totally flat---(no crowd to work with!).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Oh but it doesn't. You just don't realise it. Charting is self-fullfilling and also corruptive. If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.




cheers for your thoughts snake, understand what you are saying great angle to look at it from.


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> *PERSPECTIVE!!*
> Yesterday you bought a stock which rose 5c in $1.30
> 
> Today you discard a stock which has risen 18c in $7.50
> The ratio in todays move in SEK is LESS than yesterdays move in MAH?
> 
> This move is likely to be well above 18c!!!




Agree with tech.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> *Snake* I see T/A more as analysis of crowd behaviour.
> And as crowd behaviour (particularly big crowds) is predictable and can be seen as cyclic as well as repetitive---this is why analysis will have a tendancy to be "self" fulfilling.
> 
> Notice also how smaller crowds (trading small caps) can do seamingly radical things---spike either way! Or be more volatile or totally flat---(no crowd to work with!).





My point exactly and why I hate the smaller caps. 

tech why do you put my username in *bold*?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Trade_It said:


> cheers for your thoughts snake, understand what you are saying great angle to look at it from.





No worries t/i.

If it is selfullfilling we know where to trade from, and if it is corruptive we know when it has failed.


----------



## nomore4s

tech/a said:


> *PERSPECTIVE!!*
> Yesterday you bought a stock which rose 5c in $1.30
> 
> Today you discard a stock which has risen 18c in $7.50
> The ratio in todays move in SEK is LESS than yesterdays move in MAH?
> 
> This move is likely to be well above 18c!!!




I agree with this as well. To me it just confirms the strength of the break, I am much more comfortable with this then if it had just poked its head over $7.65 to have a look. Imo it now has more chance of staying above the $7.60 - $7.65 resistance area.


----------



## motorway

> i find it hard to calculate a point where the run may be exhausted. I just let them go for as long as possible, pyramiding into the winners on the




hard to calculate to the spot in advance , easier to identify when the move
being  followed would be better left for a new opportunity ( rather than a loose stop taking You out with unknown timing - Active exit is an active entry.... Think about it ! )

rotation of opportunity means that better results might be obtained by following the best plays at the moment..



> We all have different styles and there are many ways of trading many different charts.
> My way will not suit everyone and my way is often ways in different discrtionary setups.
> But the basic premise of low risk decient R/R remains,in my trading.




More than this ,at bottom are correct principles that are the same
Some Know why what they do works. Some don't
Like building bridges all different types but unless they have sound principles 
They all fall down ..



> Oh but it doesn't. You just don't realise it. Charting is self-fullfilling and also corruptive. If it wasn't it wouldn't have the tendency to work as it does regardless of style.
> Snake I see T/A more as analysis of crowd behaviour.
> And as crowd behaviour (particularly big crowds) is predictable and can be seen as cyclic as well as repetitive---this is why analysis will have a tendancy to be "self" fulfilling.




Points, the crowd is not homogeneous but is heterogeneous.

The crowd varies in those "three factors" ( The tools of manipulation )

Price ....Paid ( Big difference in being in profit or in loss )
Time...... Intended holding periods
Information... The rationale..

The crowd has a natural life cycle
What part of the cycle are you looking to identify

When the crowd has confluence
When time price and information of a majority of participants intersects
and creates a juncture... forced moves unfold...



OK a few good examples thrown up by tech

So a quick look ..
have a look at SEK
compared to QBE

Where is the defining bar on SEK ?
28th mar..

Make that your compass
And High degree of clarity becomes apparent

This range looks very different to QBE




> Entry for SEK in this case for me would be $7.63 any where below that has been met with supply.




How much supply ? 
I would say  not that much
Sure, enough to turn it back
But only because the buyers allowed it too..

As much lack of demand has too much supply

early in that life cycle buyers make the play without much competition


The defining bar and subsequent responses
suggest accumulation
The swings are fishing expeditions

They test supply and find less and less of it
The swings are narrow ( narrow swings strongly suggest supply is not an issue, again compare to QBE) 

There appears here a real readiness to move
Lat 5 bars
display strength
and quite good  "ease of movement"

The point of support has been moving higher
We have readiness to move 
on the end of a range strongly suggestive of accumulation
( good comparison again to QBE )
Foundation for a good move being laid
(  after the followers get onboard)


Question on scanning somewhere ?

responses reveal the technical position
So We need to look for strong responses

One of the best is action relative to the market

We had a strong Day today
What was at the leading edge of the action
What lagged behind
What went in the other direction

rotation of sectors and stocks 
means rotation of opportunity

The mkt itself is saying
Get on and get off..

Those who are in control of time price and information
make the market

Everyone else is following

better to not be last in line..

motorway


----------



## CanOz

motorway said:


> hard to calculate to the spot in advance , easier to identify when the move
> being  followed would be better left for a new opportunity ( rather than a loose stop taking You out with unknown timing - Active exit is an active entry.... Think about it ! )
> 
> rotation of opportunity means that better results might be obtained by following the best plays at the moment..
> 
> 
> 
> More than this ,at bottom are correct principles that are the same
> Some Know why what they do works. Some don't
> Like building bridges all different types but unless they have sound principles
> They all fall down ..
> 
> 
> 
> Points, the crowd is not homogeneous but is heterogeneous.
> 
> The crowd varies in those "three factors" ( The tools of manipulation )
> 
> Price ....Paid ( Big difference in being in profit or in loss )
> Time...... Intended holding periods
> Information... The rationale..
> 
> The crowd has a natural life cycle
> What part of the cycle are you looking to identify
> 
> When the crowd has confluence
> When time price and information of a majority of participants intersects
> and creates a juncture... forced moves unfold...
> 
> 
> 
> OK a few good examples thrown up by tech
> 
> So a quick look ..
> have a look at SEK
> compared to QBE
> 
> Where is the defining bar on SEK ?
> 28th mar..
> 
> Make that your compass
> And High degree of clarity becomes apparent
> 
> This range looks very different to QBE
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How much supply ?
> I would say  not that much
> Sure, enough to turn it back
> But only because the buyers allowed it too..
> 
> As much lack of demand has too much supply
> 
> early in that life cycle buyers make the play without much competition
> 
> 
> The defining bar and subsequent responses
> suggest accumulation
> The swings are fishing expeditions
> 
> They test supply and find less and less of it
> The swings are narrow ( narrow swings strongly suggest supply is not an issue, again compare to QBE)
> 
> There appears here a real readiness to move
> Lat 5 bars
> display strength
> and quite good  "ease of movement"
> 
> The point of support has been moving higher
> We have readiness to move
> on the end of a range strongly suggestive of accumulation
> ( good comparison again to QBE )
> Foundation for a good move being laid
> (  after the followers get onboard)
> 
> 
> Question on scanning somewhere ?
> 
> responses reveal the technical position
> So We need to look for strong responses
> 
> One of the best is action relative to the market
> 
> We had a strong Day today
> What was at the leading edge of the action
> What lagged behind
> What went in the other direction
> 
> rotation of sectors and stocks
> means rotation of opportunity
> 
> The mkt itself is saying
> Get on and get off..
> 
> Those who are in control of time price and information
> make the market
> 
> Everyone else is following
> 
> better to not be last in line..
> 
> motorway




Thanks for that M.Way. 

The first thing i do after my data download every nite, is to review the sectors....Good advice.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

Motorway.
Some great advice there.
I agree timely sector rotation can be very profitable.
Since beginning of May, i found myself holding mainly oilers or stocks in the oil & gas sector. Not on purpose, but all the stocks breaking up was in this sector!


----------



## nomore4s

Trade_It said:


> Sek looks like it could turn into a winner.
> 
> I am about to look it up and maybe take a play on it if meets to the requirements I have.
> 
> Cheers for the lead!
> 
> 
> This trade is right out of duchy's hand book wonder if he has spotted it!




Its been posted up on Dutchys thread a while ago TI.

MW, thanks for the last post, got alot of good points out of it re the SEK & QBE charts.


----------



## CanOz

Nizar, further to your questions on profit targets and R/R...

I have done nothing with this until now. Then tonite i had the "ahhh ha" moment.

I really don't know what R/R that i should expect. But lets say that 2:1 is the minimum for discussion purposes at this very moment.

I'll post a chart to discuss.....SEK.

Heres the profit target, say 1.42....fibb 261.8...and consistant with other monthly moves...

So i've got this horrible R/R of 1.09:1

So clearly makes the trade unworthy of the risk....i'll post the chart and my speadsheet...i hope i've done this right....oh well its only paper hey!

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

Cana, here's one (OST) you might be interested in for your longer term watchlist(really just using that as an excuse to post it so I can ask Motorway and others some questions, lol).

MW, can I ask your thoughts on this stock (just following on from your last post on SEK & QBE). 
I've circled (in green) the candles from May 25 & June 8, ultra high vol days and closing well off the lows and then the sp moving back up towards the top of the range on lower vol, is this what you mean by buyers making the play without much competition? This looks to me like accumulation vol coming in at the bottom and with vol drying up near the top of the range.
Blue circles - tight range days & low vol - supply drying up? With buyers not willing to push prices higher yet? The only high vol day at the top of the range is the green candle from the 21st of June with the next few days being sold down on lower vol, is this a test of the resistance or something else I'm missing?
I hope I make sense.


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Nizar, further to your questions on profit targets and R/R...
> 
> I have done nothing with this until now. Then tonite i had the "ahhh ha" moment.
> 
> I really don't know what R/R that i should expect. But lets say that 2:1 is the minimum for discussion purposes at this very moment.
> 
> I'll post a chart to discuss.....SEK.
> 
> Heres the profit target, say 1.42....fibb 261.8...and consistant with other monthly moves...
> 
> So i've got this horrible R/R of 1.09:1
> 
> So clearly makes the trade unworthy of the risk....i'll post the chart and my speadsheet...i hope i've done this right....oh well its only paper hey!
> 
> Cheers,




Yes, i guess R/R of 1.09 does make it unworthy of a trade.
I usually dont use fib no's to determine profit targets but if its consistant with other monthly moves then i guess your reasoning is sound.

Sounds like you are talking about MAH though.

Have you got a profit target at all for SEK?

I will buy an initial position in SEK tomorrow. Buy the opening price (probably $7.80-ish). Initial stop will be $7.50.

I think from here it will do one of two things:
1/ Run like a champion.
2/ Have a low volume pullback over 1-3 days but not close below $7.60 before bouncing and then running like a champion.

If it doesnt do 1 or 2, well thats what my stop is there for.


----------



## nizar

Also Can.

The one tech mentioned the other day CUO has broken out today.

Any thoughts/discussion about this one?

Is it a better trade to take than SEK, if you had to pick one of the two?


----------



## CanOz

First target is 8.50 ish, 2nd and the 261.8% ext is 9.30 ish.

I actually took a real position in this today at 7.75...which gives me a R/R of 1.4:1 on the 161%, and a secondary R/R of 3.2:1

My stop is just below the apex at 7.26.

I could be, and probably am way off the mark with this Nizar...i'm sure someone will come along and set me straight...

Funny that i've not come across alot of this in my reading..must go back through all those books.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Nizar, CUO....if i have enough time i'll try to find one that might be worth it!

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Heres one from my watchlist that i just checked!

I haven't ran my pattern scans yet...i'm expecting a few there too.


----------



## motorway

I think being able to analyse trading ranges
is very important...

That critical juncture where a stock or market gets itself into the position
of a forced move is built out of the action in a trading range..

A lot of things are being brought into being
and a lot of things are taking shape and becoming clearer..
( the "real" fundamentals that matter for example )

I think You should always look for ranges
They signal the start and end of moves
sometimes that means looking at a different time frame to the one of the trend You are following ( And that is what We want to do follow trends ) 

A trend meets new dynamics
A range is formed
At first the range will tend to have wider swings
"turbulence" and a lack of clarity..
But sooner or later ( and maybe better measured in swings than time )
Noise washes out.. And I believe with practice based on sound principle
the chart will reveal intent...

On a P&F chart for example an old term for the backing and filling of sideways congestion was the "work"... it was where the work that generated the next chapter of action was built...

Now... unless all has become clear...We should have patience and wait.
Wait for the fruit to ripen and drop...

OST

22may new dynamic after prices had gaped OST ran into supply and more circumspect demand .Wide range bars are always a significant sign
22may had a  poor close and a series of bars with lower highs falling away to a sharpish reaction... The depth of this reaction is not so large and yes  on that 
25th demand is seen to be back over comimg the supply..
The 7th of June is a worry... The headway made on this rally is very poor
it just makes a new high .. But supply comes in and drives the price down poor close on a very large range bar.... Demand and supply are not meeting..

yes look at the volume , But also look at the range... narrow range down bars
suggest  demand meeting the supply
large range bars suggest  supply is having to reach to find demand.. Sure there is volume
But If supply reaches down low enough some demand will be found ( Is it smart ?  If you are extending in order to reach Me I would step back and let you FALL )
At the top of the rallies are some small range bars ( supply meeting demand )
that lead to those larger range down bars..
the last rally falls short on lower volume and larger range bars follow
with too much volume .. The recent bars (6 or 7 of them ) look weak
look like supply .

the overall pattern ( don't be fixed on just bars bars can be 1, 2, 3 ,5 or 10 day bars they can be what ever you want a bar to be ) 
looks to have a rounding over appearance

I see danger , I see ( If looking to go long ) No clarity
I see weakness when comparing to the mkt esp the action from the last high.

If this range is going to be accumulation
I think there is more "work" to be done before We get a nice juncture formed

Of course Tomorrow might change -----> everything !

There appears to be too much supply
and little to suggest that the buying is in any effective way smart

This range is hardly formed ..

My observations





motorway
comments are purely for discussion


----------



## CanOz

And another to watch....i think this is more like it.


----------



## barney

motorway said:


> I think being able to analyse trading ranges
> is very important...
> 
> That critical juncture where a stock or market gets itself into the position
> of a forced move is built out of the action in a trading range..
> 
> A lot of things are being brought into being
> and a lot of things are taking shape and becoming clearer..
> ( the "real" fundamentals that matter for example )
> 
> I think You should always look for ranges
> They signal the start and end of moves
> sometimes that means looking at a different time frame to the one of the trend You are following ( And that is what We want to do follow trends )
> 
> A trend meets new dynamics
> A range is formed
> At first the range will tend to have wider swings
> "turbulence" and a lack of clarity..
> But sooner or later ( and maybe better measured in swings than time )
> Noise washes out.. And I believe with practice based on sound principle
> the chart will reveal intent...
> 
> On a P&F chart for example an old term for the backing and filling of sideways congestion was the "work"... it was where the work that generated the next chapter of action was built...
> 
> Now... unless all has become clear...We should have patience and wait.
> Wait for the fruit to ripen and drop...
> 
> OST
> 
> 22may new dynamic after prices had gaped OST ran into supply and more circumspect demand .Wide range bars are always a significant sign
> 22may had a  poor close and a series of bars with lower highs falling away to a sharpish reaction... The depth of this reaction is not so large and yes  on that
> 25th demand is seen to be back over comimg the supply..
> The 7th of June is a worry... The headway made on this rally is very poor
> it just makes a new high .. But supply comes in and drives the price down poor close on a very large range bar.... Demand and supply are not meeting..
> 
> yes look at the volume , But also look at the range... narrow range down bars
> suggest  demand meeting the supply
> large range bars suggest  supply is having to reach to find demand.. Sure there is volume
> But If supply reaches down low enough some demand will be found ( Is it smart ?  If you are extending in order to reach Me I would step back and let you FALL )
> At the top of the rallies are some small range bars ( supply meeting demand )
> that lead to those larger range down bars..
> the last rally falls short on lower volume and larger range bars follow
> with too much volume .. The recent bars (6 or 7 of them ) look weak
> look like supply .
> 
> the overall pattern ( don't be fixed on just bars bars can be 1, 2, 3 ,5 or 10 day bars they can be what ever you want a bar to be )
> looks to have a rounding over appearance
> 
> I see danger , I see ( If looking to go long ) No clarity
> I see weakness when comparing to the mkt esp the action from the last high.
> 
> If this range is going to be accumulation
> I think there is more "work" to be done before We get a nice juncture formed
> 
> Of course Tomorrow might change -----> everything !
> 
> There appears to be too much supply
> and little to suggest that the buying is in any effective way smart
> 
> This range is hardly formed ..
> 
> My observations
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> motorway
> comments are purely for discussion






Brilliant as always M/W!!!

Great thread here guys. Well done "CAN" for initiating it, and excellent advice/comments from all others ............... I suspect many (like me) are just floating about in the wings learning some valuable stuff from the more knowledeable folk around here ............... Cheers.


----------



## tech/a

*Snake*
In bold so people can see I'm addressing them.
If there are a few I'm speaking to in a reply it may get lost in the wording.

*CanOz*
I think the importance and impact of stop placement and R/R has been glossed over by many here.
The difference to your bottomline can be amazing.

I thought then that the importance of thinking in terms of R/Ratios can be demonstated in the chart attached.
In the *Blue* is my trade and the resultant R/R.Your R/R (Yes you bought at 1.34 But I have 1.33) is in *RED*

So remember I have 
(1) More shares
(2) Same Risk
(3) Much higher R/R.
So at $1.50 (Potentially) I will have a return of 3 X risk where as you'll have 1 X Risk.
My 3 x R/R will be *6 times *as much as your return simply due to my placement of stop and my taking of the trade at the earliest possible time allowing me a larger parcel size.


----------



## tech/a

The point I'm making above ---and most gloss over it.

Is that the *real money *doesn't come from the ANALYSIS.

(1) Correct position sizing (Best possible)
(2) Correct Leverage
(3) Intelligent pyramiding.
(4) Capitalising Profits (Re investing).


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> The point I'm making above ---and most gloss over it.
> 
> Is that the *real money *doesn't come from the ANALYSIS.
> 
> (1) Correct position sizing (Best possible)
> (2) Correct Leverage
> (3) Intelligent pyramiding.
> (4) Capitalising Profits (Re investing).




Tech.
Would you take SEK or CUO as trades at this point in time?
I suspect yes but if no then why not.
Is there one you prefer over the other?

Where would initial stop placement be in your opinion?

I think both are goers.

For me, (end of day) stop for SEK would be at $7.44. Worst case scenario to the upside i think would be a low volume pullback to the $7.45-$7.60 region over 1-3 days before going again.

For CUO, i think ideal (end of day) stop can be placed at 78.5c. You would want this bouncing off 79-80c on any pullback, this should become support since there was significant resistance at these levels on the way up.

Im taking SEK as a real trade, CUO i will watch with interest. The reason is, i think SEK has more upside because the consolidation (range trading) was longer. 4 months as opposed to about 2 weeks. Is this a valid reason? Obviously many on here have seen these patterns more often than me.

Thanks.


----------



## tech/a

*Nizar.*

SEK isnt out of its range yet.
One has more bang for your buck than the other.
One has classic range and Volume analysis.
Neither appeal NOW.
CUO did and should have been purchased on breakout yesterday.
Seems I'm a little fussier than most!

What is it that you think I'm fussier about?

The analysis?


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> *Nizar.*
> 
> SEK isnt out of its range yet.
> One has more bang for your buck than the other.
> One has classic range and Volume analysis.
> Neither appeal NOW.
> CUO did and should have been purchased on breakout yesterday.
> Seems I'm a little fussier than most!
> 
> What is it that you think I'm fussier about?
> 
> The analysis?




tech/a.

How about for somebody who takes a longer term view and trades end of day?
Would such a person, in your opinion, discard CUO?
Or is it still a goer?

Notice how there was only 7mins between 80.5 and 84c. Lowest you could have got it after that was 83c.

You're fussier? Thats great -- it means your more selective.
Why? Perhaps because of your 12yrs experience 
Mine is much less.

The main difference here is the projected R/R.
As i said before i *never* do this. Perhaps its because i dont have the software or knowledge to do so. Or perhaps its because i dont know how far a stock is going to run.

With your projections, such as those on MAH. Has this methodology of working out price targets been used in the past with a reasonable rate of accuracy? 

If so -- then id be keen to know how you work these out. Id appreciate if you could point out any software and/or books.

Coz when i (first) bought MPO at 10.5 and it went to, currently 31c, i had no idea it would get this far. Same with ESG at 38c. But its a bullmarket after all, so maybe i just got lucky


----------



## nizar

Tech.

Also -- how about SEK.
When would you consider SEK out of its range? Let me guess, a blue sky close!

Would it be a trade then?
Is it even on your watchlist?

many Thanks.


----------



## tech/a

> How about for somebody who takes a longer term view and trades end of day?
> Would such a person, in your opinion, discard CUO?
> Or is it still a goer?




Regardless of timeframe better (or patient) closer stop entry means better R/R.That better R/R and as a consequent larger positionsize with the SAME risk attached---remains with the trade througout its life.

I once mentioned waiting for a trade to come to you.
Sometimes a trade is already ready to hop on next open (I thought that with MAH). Using COE as an example I personally see the stop as a little to far away. I also know that the structure of moves (from experience ) is rarely vertical---if it is I miss out. If it isnt it will correct pretty soon giving me a better entry setup criteria. IE Ill be able to tighten the stop.

I'll either reap reward OR fail.It doesnt matter either way as the risk is the SAME but the potential REWARD if I wait is FAR greater.
Subtle but important.
I didnt see the course of trades.



> With your projections, such as those on MAH. Has this methodology of working out price targets been used in the past with a reasonable rate of accuracy?




If you mean spot on to the cent---no.
But thats NOT how I use Elliott and projections.
I want to know *where* I am in the scheme of a charts trend or where a move out of a correction fits.
Ideally I dont want to take a trade thats at the top of a 5 wave move.
I dont want to take the first breakout from a prolonged corrective move.
I want to see certain criteria satisfied during a move which tells me where it is.
Then I can have confidence in possible projections and can quickly asertain if a move has 3 X R/R possibility in the NEAR future.
If not the PASS.
Waves have a habit of extending beyond projections and is the MAIN reason accuracy is challenged.Some Hit spot on and end that phase of its move.
There will be criteria which confirm that this is so.
Not necessarily on the day but soon after.



> If so -- then id be keen to know how you work these out. Id appreciate if you could point out any software and/or books.




Ive chosen 
(1) Metastock mainly for search and formula testing capability.
(2) Tradesim for systems testing.
(3) AGET EOD for Elliott (Even with its Algorithm wave count inconsistencies)It is a powerful piece of software with capabilities I still havent familiarised myself with).
(4) Tradeguider Realtime. Simply for short term trading dont leave home without it!

All in all my setup is not considered cheap.Around $10k Plus computers and screens. Live feed by esignal. EOD by Just data.
Bloody expensive buisiness!---Well compared to my day job its damned cheap!! To set up in a professional manner realy is pretty cheap.
most would pay over $250,000 for a business that could return a decient wage!!

SEK
Watchlist--no
Bluesky---yes
Would I trade it---possibly but Id want to see more than just a breakout
IE a retest,Then a breaking of the new breakout high.
In other words a wave 1/2 confirmation of the begining of a wave 3 of a longer move.

Back to work!!


----------



## CFD

Another good post tech/a. 
I do not mean to be rude, being new here and all, but I do hope that those responding to it do not need to re quote the whole post in full.


----------



## nizar

Thanks tech.
Great post.


----------



## CanOz

MCR, i have this as 2.3:1 R/R...to me it looks unacceptable and i'll look for other opps...

Tech, if you have time to comment on this one.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

> Tech, if you have time to comment on this one.




*Canaussi*
I'm not going to comment on specific stocks unless I use it as an example.
If I and others do an analysis of it you dont learn anything!!

I'm happy to comment if I think there is something that you have perhaps overlooked,or could include in your analysis.

Radge does it to me all the time.

So why not post up your view and as we have all done on others post up our own hints or take on the chart after you have put forward YOUR view.


----------



## R0n1n

Good point Tech. Hope Can wont mind others posting their view about other stocks..  I do plan to put in my .2C and the experienced guys can then point out the overlooked stuff..


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> MCR, i have this as 2.3:1 R/R...to me it looks unacceptable and i'll look for other opps...
> 
> Tech, if you have time to comment on this one.
> 
> Cheers,




Ok, well to be honest, since i've started using Fibb on triangles to calculate R/R, i can't really to get too excited over anything less than 3:1.

On triangles, i'm putting my stop usually just below the apex, i can't get any closer than that realistically. 

The chart i posted, MCR, has a decent R/R to the secondary target (6.8:1)...i guess i'm looking for some advice....a bit unsure, but at the moment i think i'm needing 3:1 to enter a trade...provided i've used the proper stop level etc.

Thoughts?

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

> but at the moment i think i'm needing 3:1 to enter a trade




Why??
I know why I came to this conclusion---why is it that you have??

You need to know why.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Why??
> I know why I came to this conclusion---why is it that you have??
> 
> You need to know why.




Because my money is better used somewhere else, if i can get 3:1, then why not take a bit more time to find it. 

Other than that Tech, i don't know why...it just dawned on me that anything less than 3 looked pretty average to me after looking at enough of them...I just don't feel comfortable now with anything less than 3 x my risk.

Cheers,


----------



## Porper

tech/a said:


> Why??
> I know why I came to this conclusion---why is it that you have??
> 
> You need to know why.




This surely comes down to the maths.Risk/Reward is part of the win / loss ratio in essence ?

If we can get the R/R out to say 4:1, we can afford to have more losing trades without having a major impact on profits.

R/R is different in that if we can get a higher reward for a smaller risk (wait for the right trade), while also having that risk below substantial support we have less chance of a losing trade........, higher win rate, more profit.

Or am I on totally the wrong track here ?


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Because my money is better used somewhere else, if i can get 3:1, then why not take a bit more time to find it.
> 
> Other than that Tech, i don't know why...it just dawned on me that anything less than 3 looked pretty average to me after looking at enough of them...I just don't feel comfortable now with anything less than 3 x my risk.
> 
> Cheers,




Cana, 
Why I look for 3.5-4x R/R on my trades is that it means I've got to be right less and I can still be profitable.
Just say with a R/R of 4x I can have a win/loss ratio of 30% and still be profitable (in theory). 
Example - 3/10 Win/loss with a 4X R/R, with a risk of $100.00.
7 Losses x $100 = $700
3 Wins x $400 = $1200
Profit = $500
Obviously the higher your W/L ratio the higher your profits as well.
Someone may be able to post up a equity curve that would better explain what I mean.

The reason Tech(I'm guessing here Tech) would look for a 3x R/R is he has probably done alot of testing on his system and knows he needs this R/R ratio to be profitable.

edit: lol, Porper beat me to it


----------



## nizar

nomore4s said:


> The reason Tech(I'm guessing here Tech) would look for a 3x R/R is he has probably done alot of testing on his system and knows he needs this R/R ratio to be profitable.




How (and why) would you do systems testing on a discretionary system?
It doesnt seem his stops are set in a mechanical/systematic way.


----------



## CanOz

nomore4s said:


> Cana,
> Why I look for 3.5-4x R/R on my trades is that it means I've got to be right less and I can still be profitable.
> Just say with a R/R of 4x I can have a win/loss ratio of 30% and still be profitable (in theory).
> Example - 3/10 Win/loss with a 4X R/R, with a risk of $100.00.
> 7 Losses x $100 = $700
> 3 Wins x $400 = $1200
> Profit = $500
> Obviously the higher your W/L ratio the higher your profits as well.
> Someone may be able to post up a equity curve that would better explain what I mean.
> 
> The reason Tech(I'm guessing here Tech) would look for a 3x R/R is he has probably done alot of testing on his system and knows he needs this R/R ratio to be profitable.
> 
> edit: lol, Porper beat me to it




Ahhh, of course.......so basically the winners that you do have return at least the specific R/R your looking for (or in theory anyway), squewing the numbers more again in your favour...

You know, i have had more 'ahh haa' moments in the last week than i can ever remember! Great stuff.


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> You know, i have more 'ahh haa' moments in the last week than i can ever remember! Great stuff.




You and me both, my friend


----------



## R0n1n

ok guys here is *MRE*. I had posted about it in the potential breakout thread where Can suggested me to discuss it here along with my R/R and profit target. I liked his idea so here it is.

Now provided I buy it (on paper) at tomorrow's open at $7.69 my first target and expected resistance is $8.61 and stop loss trigger is at $7.02. Now this is 9%, but I generally use 3% as stop loss. The 7.02 is based on the support line.
Based on the support line stop loss, the  R/R would be 1.33:1 , not good enough. but if using a 3% stop loss the R/R is 4:1 . Is my calculations correct ?

Also the volume is speaking another story...


----------



## Nick Radge

My system testing clearly shows that taking a trade during low volatility periods greatly increase the risk/reward benefits of a trade. As an example, if you measure the distance between an entry and initial protective stop level, then only take trades below X$, then you will find that the results will be a lot better. As an example, calculate the dollar difference between a channel breakout and its stop; assume 50-day entry and 13-day exit. If that amount is less than X$, then take the trade. If it's more then forego the trade. The same principal can be applied to any technique.

We commonly hear about a Bollinger squeeze. Essentially that is right, but one Bollinger squeeze needs to measured against another which is my point here. A wide Bollinger squeeze may need to be left alone for another.

Research will show the differences are quite astounding.

Tech/a may remember that I discussed this is Adelaide at an ATAA talk back in 2001 or so.


----------



## wayneL

Nick Radge said:


> My system testing clearly shows that taking a trade during low volatility periods greatly increase the risk/reward benefits of a trade. As an example, if you measure the distance between an entry and initial protective stop level, then only take trades below X$, then you will find that the results will be a lot better. As an example, calculate the dollar difference between a channel breakout and its stop; assume 50-day entry and 13-day exit. If that amount is less than X$, then take the trade. If it's more then forego the trade. The same principal can be applied to any technique.
> 
> We commonly hear about a Bollinger squeeze. Essentially that is right, but one Bollinger squeeze needs to measured against another which is my point here. A wide Bollinger squeeze may need to be left alone for another.
> 
> Research will show the differences are quite astounding.
> 
> Tech/a may remember that I discussed this is Adelaide at an ATAA talk back in 2001 or so.



I've not tested this myself, so my comments are entirely anecdotal. But I fully agree, it's something I've noticed over a number of years. fwiw


----------



## nomore4s

nizar said:


> How (and why) would you do systems testing on a discretionary system?
> It doesnt seem his stops are set in a mechanical/systematic way.




lol, Nizar I did say I was guessing, Tech would better be able to give his reasons.



CanOz said:


> Ahhh, of course.......so basically the winners that you do have return at least the specific R/R your looking for (or in theory anyway), squewing the numbers more again in your favour...
> 
> *You know, i have had more 'ahh haa' moments in the last week than i can ever remember! Great stuff*.




Me too! Very glad you started this thread learning heaps off of it. Thanks to all the more experienced posters for taking the time to explain things to us, especially Tech & Motorway.


----------



## tech/a

Yes.
Its all about Win rates.

Here are a few doc's that you may find helpful.
THE MATRIX.
This will show you your risk to ruin.
Simply fill in the fields and see how often you need to have a winner (Win %) to profit.Anything under and your Risk of Ruin.
The Second ACTUAL TRADES
Fill in the YELLOW cells with your parameters and record your trades.
Your NUMBERS will be displayed for you to evaluate your trading.

ENJOY


----------



## Chorlton

Nick Radge said:


> My system testing clearly shows that taking a trade during low volatility periods greatly increase the risk/reward benefits of a trade. As an example, if you measure the distance between an entry and initial protective stop level, then only take trades below X$, then you will find that the results will be a lot better. As an example, calculate the dollar difference between a channel breakout and its stop; assume 50-day entry and 13-day exit. If that amount is less than X$, then take the trade. If it's more then forego the trade.




Hi Nick,

Just for my clarification, given the difference in price for each potential trade, wouldn't you want to ensure that trades taken were below x %,  as opposed to an actual x$ amount??   eg. If the entry was $100 and stop $95then  = 5% difference. 

Also, would this exercise be carried out in place of calculating your R:R ratio or in addition to it?  ie. as a final step before commiting to the trade.

Thanks.....

PS. As another poster has commented, I'm also learning a lot from this one thread!!!


----------



## tech/a

Nick.

Yes I do remember that presentation.
It was at that or the other one that I had MY AHHHHA!! moment.
Courtesy of yours truley.


----------



## motorway

R0n1n said:


> ok guys here is *MRE*. I had posted about it in the potential breakout thread where Can suggested me to discuss it here along with my R/R and profit target. I liked his idea so here it is.
> 
> Now provided I buy it (on paper) at tomorrow's open at $7.69 my first target and expected resistance is $8.61 and stop loss trigger is at $7.02. Now this is 9%, but I generally use 3% as stop loss. The 7.02 is based on the support line.
> Based on the support line stop loss, the  R/R would be 1.33:1 , not good enough. but if using a 3% stop loss the R/R is 4:1 . Is my calculations correct ?
> 
> Also the volume is speaking another story...




What story is the volume speaking
I guess from the context you mean weakness ?

But what about the context of the action on the chart ????

I will come back to this
But You tell Me ?

What do the high volume bars starting with the first red arrow
indicate ?
What happens to the price action from that point
ie what story do the bars reveal ?

The second and third arrows "Kiss and tell "

The last arrow is narrow spread and low volume..
What is it's position . To be where it is what does it reveal ?

All that puts the last bar in context and qualifies that low volume as Not that low...

I mentioned waiting for clarity

This chart has a high level of clarity...

motorway


----------



## motorway

CanOz said:


> Ok, well to be honest, since i've started using Fibb on triangles to calculate R/R, i can't really to get too excited over anything less than 3:1.
> 
> On triangles, i'm putting my stop usually just below the apex, i can't get any closer than that realistically.
> 
> The chart i posted, MCR, has a decent R/R to the secondary target (6.8:1)...i guess i'm looking for some advice....a bit unsure, but at the moment i think i'm needing 3:1 to enter a trade...provided i've used the proper stop level etc.
> 
> Thoughts?
> 
> Cheers,




Just taking the "character of the action"

Esp comparing the last bar to the action at and from the high

How much demand do You think is evident 

JUST RIGHT NOW ?

motorway


----------



## CanOz

motorway said:


> Just taking the "character of the action"
> 
> Esp comparing the last bar to the action at and from the high
> 
> How much demand do You think is evident
> 
> JUST RIGHT NOW ?
> 
> motorway




Sweet bugger all.


----------



## R0n1n

Motorway
volume wise I ment: buying volume has been high but not above average for today, probably not enough sellers ?? 

The context of the chart action for today is positive. Buyers controlled the price action from the first trade to the last trade, so should I read this as what ever was offered  today was taken by buyers ?

I understood today's action (atleast I think so) but can u explain the red arrow you have drawn and your interpretation.

Also would this qualify as a low risk entry with a 2% or 3% stop loss ? If it does then my scan is doing a good job, if not I need to work on it more ... hmmm...


----------



## motorway

First arrow
Is preliminary support

The down move was in full swing
If all the following had been on that down move

It would have been look out below

But We get a very high volume bar
And from that point the price does skid to a stop
The vol remains high
but the stride lessons
There is significant accumulation
occurring as the last distressed sellers reach for the bids

Those sellers have to reach less and less

The second arrow 
is very low volume.. running out of sellers
narrow range.... demand keener to meet supply
close in the middle.... demand even reached UP

From here bars are more ordered
In the small range they clearly trend
The third arrow is where the downside line in the sand is given a good test
Price breaks that low
Some supply is shaken out

But look at the range and the close
demand must have absorbed and chased supply all the way back to the top of the bar...... This is a spring.

The last arrow shows the price action coming to a dead centre

volume is low,, range is narrow even the close is in the centre of the bar..
A hairs weight of demand will have prices moving UP

We already can see that there is No more supply..

The stride down has completely stopped
volume has subsided

So the last BAR While is not such high vol
shows demand willing to reach to a good extent

the only way to get more volume 
Was for the buyers to reach even higher
and make things even harder for themselves

The last BAR suggests a supply vacuum cause by real accumulation
some of which was accomplished in the trend down..

Today would have been a good entry early
and maybe You could have got a good R/R

Buying tomorrow
You could work off an hourly chart ( or less )
and that would give You clear support at $7.55

Short term buy points
were at or after the spring
and at or after dead centre

This stock started to outperform the mkt
from the 21st



Now You are chasing the move somewhat
Keep an eye on the tide of the mkt
watch for the depth of any reaction and the volume

here is another look
first stop $8.60 ?


motorway


----------



## nomore4s

Motorway, thanks for your patience.

I think the penny is starting to drop but it may take a while longer yet to fully sink in.
I know you've just explained it but I will try in my own words to see if I actually understand.

The block between the first arrow and the second arrow shows prices edgeing lower with wide rangeing days and very high volume for the whole block. I take it this an example of strength in price weakness? With the strength slowly soaking up the supply.

It's amazing how suddenly the vol just drops off and the ranges tighten up.

The 2 red circle days with the higher vol look to be the final thrust of the remaining sellers again with the demand soaking it up and then the following days vol dropping off again with narrow range days.

The 3rd arrow day stands out like a sore thumb when I know what to look for.

Now I've got to try to learn to apply this in my trading, lol.


----------



## motorway

> Now I've got to try to learn to apply this in my trading, lol.




Like any skill You can learn it with 
sound principles and consistent practice..

The Mkt will give You good feedback...

Think Of price seeking volume
and when it finds it fleeing volume

The problem at first
is seeing enough context

If prices move UP and find volume
There is some supply some element of distribution
If prices move down and find volume
There is some demand and some element of accumulation

When price finds volume
What happens then

Does strength or weakness develop ?

Always be interested when a range forms
There is equilibrium that will only last so long..

look at bars
But look as You have done at groups of bars

Think of each rally
and each reaction
as bars

Look for where the current close is
Where is it positioned
How did it arrive there

In context of a bar
a group of bars
a rally
highs and lows
across different time frames and magnitude of moves

What is the trend

Up
down
sideways

defined by highs and lows of a certain magnitude

And then what is the current position in that trend
and what is price doing right NOW..


half way points are the measure of all things
the close in relation to the halfway point of the bar, rally, reaction , wave,
etc you are only seeing waves of buying and selling really

note the halfway points on the charts above

Always look at the opposite side of the action and the chart
looking to go long look esp at the reactions
looking to go short look esp at the rallies
look at the ease of the movement
look for change in behaviour

catch moves early
By recognizing the strength in weakness
and the weakness in strength

Without trying to bring a mystical overlay

Think of the Yin/Yang Symbol

You know the one 

The "Grand Ultimate"

Of two forces
demand and supply
each containing the seeds of the opposite
an excess of demand moves prices Up but will create supply
an excess of supply moves prices down but will create demand

Between demand and supply is the flow of price  a wavy line a wave
following a cycle of  accumulation markup distribution markdown
a wave swinging between overbought and oversold

Did You know that a liquid efficient mkt is deemed to be efficient
if price is not less then 50% of value nor more than 200% !!!!

No wonder smart money has so much to work with

principle is something always correct
it only needs correct application

Principles are timeless 
and hence things discovered



sound principle
thorough application &
practise practise practise

And the charts will end up speaking to you
You will grasp them intuitively

like riding a bike.. 

A reader of the tape

mastery is a journey not a destination

You will always get better..


Think of every movement of price and volume
as both a response and a future test



cheers
motorway


----------



## CanOz

Well, i've made an exec. decision to buy MRE at market this morning..provided it doesn't GAP up. If it does, there may be another opportunity.

Also, Motorway, further to lack of followup volume on MCR (sweet bugger all), are we looking for confirmation of the confirmation? The breakout of the triangle was confirmed, we simple had to purchase at market the following day. That day turned out to be a fizzer, but also to note that with the lack of demand, there was also lack of supply.

Your thoughts on this?

Cheers,


----------



## R0n1n

Motorway, once again *THANKYOU*

I guess I should have reacted yesterday when I saw MRE, but it will take me more time to full grasp the charts as you do.

And thanx to Can for starting this thread and asking questions.. I will post more charts as and when I think I have found a good candidate.


----------



## Nick Radge

Chorlton,
Yes percentage of share price is ok in this context. My dollar value came from risk on account. If the trade risk did not fit my own risk, then rather take an artificial stop loss level, I'd stand aside completely.


----------



## CanOz

heres an update on how we're doing:


----------



## vert

First i would like to thank can for starting this thread and all the others for their knowledge. i am finally starting to get my head around how to read price and volume which should stop me from entering trades to early. 

After looking at a few of the charts posted ealier i also liked the look of MGX and that it is an iron ore play which is running hot at the moment.

first it is in an up trend channel and has bounced well off the support line twice with sideways consolidation in between.

currently looks to forming a pennant as it is nearing the support line again
volume suggests that profits have been taken and now there are buyers coming in
yesterday i put a buy in at 1.27 and got filled at the end of the day, probably a bit early still on the entry if i wanted a better R/R set up but i have a set amount that i wanted to put in (very small capital on cfd) 
initial stop at 1.17 then trailing stop a close below channel support line
no real target just when it gets to the top of channel anywhere between 1.50 to 1.70 if it goes the right way of course.

any other views greatly appreciated


----------



## motorway

CanOz said:


> Well, i've made an exec. decision to buy MRE at market this morning..provided it doesn't GAP up. If it does, there may be another opportunity.
> 
> Also, Motorway, further to lack of followup volume on MCR (sweet bugger all), are we looking for confirmation of the confirmation? The breakout of the triangle was confirmed, we simple had to purchase at market the following day. That day turned out to be a fizzer, but also to note that with the lack of demand, there was also lack of supply.
> 
> Your thoughts on this?
> 
> Cheers,




If there is a lack of demand ( where We were looking for some to turn up ? )
What happens when the supply does turn up ?

Review the context . From the "Top"
What is
The compelling argument
for taking a long or for taking a short and when
There are two sides to a story

Giving both proper due..

What is the verdict. IS it possible to have one atm ?

motorway


----------



## tech/a

motorway said:


> If there is a lack of demand ( where We were looking for some to turn up ? )
> What happens when the supply does turn up ?
> 
> Review the context . From the "Top"
> What is
> The compelling argument
> for taking a long or for taking a short and when
> There are two sides to a story
> 
> Giving both proper due..
> 
> What is the verdict. IS it possible to have one atm ?
> 
> motorway




Beat me to it.
I was going to say from those bars shown on this chart relating them to volume and Range,tell a story about what its telling us.
From the build up to the last high until now.
With the view of answering Motorways question.



> What is the verdict. IS it possible to have one atm ?


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> With the view of answering Motorways question.




Sellers, then no demand, looking more like a descending triangle...bearish for now.


Cheers,


----------



## vert

ok tech/a i will try to answer this, i might not have a clue yet but here goes.

demand was met with supply up to 26/06 above ave vol short range
supply took over 27/06 wider range larger vol
supply searched searched 28/06 same range as 27/06 low vol
demand searched 29/06 same range a bit more vol
supply won the day 2/07 same range huge vol which means it was met with alot of demand as well
3/07 supply met with demand low vol
4/07 supply almost met with same amount of demand on more vol

so overal the supply is runing out and the demand is coming in?

and todays action not finished yet but looks positive, more vol would be better.

chart a bit delayed but while typing this the sp is at 1.315(green line )


----------



## motorway

vert said:


> ok tech/a i will try to answer this, i might not have a clue yet but here goes.
> 
> demand was met with supply up to 26/06 above ave vol short range
> supply took over 27/06 wider range larger vol
> supply searched searched 28/06 same range as 27/06 low vol
> demand searched 29/06 same range a bit more vol
> supply won the day 2/07 same range huge vol which means it was met with alot of demand as well
> 3/07 supply met with demand low vol
> 4/07 supply almost met with same amount of demand on more vol
> 
> so overal the supply is runing out and the demand is coming in?
> 
> and todays action not finished yet but looks positive, more vol would be better.
> 
> chart a bit delayed but while typing this the sp is at 1.315(green line )







> supply won the day 2/07 same range huge vol which means it was met with alot of demand as well




compare this "supply day" with the one on the 27th 

Should tell You a lot
about the dynamics

What Can You see ?


Also keep the context of a significant move already
It is OK that someone wants to take profits

An issue here is readiness to move



motorway


----------



## vert

both days 27/6 and 2/7 closed at 1.28 with the later having more 1 1/2 times the vol of the first

so demand is still strong and willing to keep paying that and above?

the move (from 13/6) already has been on ave vol with some wide range up days closing on their highs - demand seeking supply?


----------



## nomore4s

motorway said:


> compare this "supply day" with the one on the 27th
> 
> Should tell You a lot
> about the dynamics
> 
> What Can You see ?
> 
> *Also keep the context of a significant move already*
> It is OK that someone wants to take profits
> 
> An issue here is readiness to move
> 
> motorway




It looks like distribution to me, with the sellers not in any hurry to move letting the buyers come to them. The 3 larger vol days have all come with wide rangeing down days with all 3 days starting up around the $1.35 mark, and ending around the $1.25-$1.28 mark.

There doesn't look to be a lot of demand to me, the sp moves up on low vol but I think this is due to the sellers letting the price come to them anything around $1.35 gets sold down pretty hard with high vol.

Not entirely sure about what you mean with the sentence in bold.




vert said:


> both days 27/6 and 2/7 closed at 1.28 with the later having more 1 1/2 times the vol of the first
> 
> *so demand is still strong and willing to keep paying that and above?*




I'm not sure about this, if demand is so strong why are the volumes so low when the prices drop? It looks like the supply pulls back and wait for demand to come to them.


----------



## nomore4s

Also on further inspection of the chart it looks like the dynamics have changed since the high was made on the 26th of June. With wide range down days on high vol appearing, and prices not moving up with as much ease as before.


----------



## motorway

I think there was certainly an end to the uptrend..

prices moved up and found volume
and there has been weakness since

There was preliminary SUPPLY
and there was spread over a number of bars at the top
A climax  to the buying..

There is always supply and demand being left behind by the trend

In this case there was demand following along
think of buyers who kept missing out
as the prices moved away from them

Finally there were sellers who met that demand

I see MGX a mirror image to MRE

An uptrend can not end like this ( with VOLUME )
unless there is distribution
from one group to another..

Now it does not mean that prices are going to fall
It could just mean a trading range..


The action So far.. compare it to SEK
compare it to an equivalent number of bars
near and from the top of the SEK chart

I see the same wide range bars that
lead to some high volume down bars and a fair bit of
volatility....

It took awhile to get sorted
For the volume and volatility to subside
And it ended up in  a trading range
which after the distribution period
took the shape of accumulation

( question today's bar in SEK did it get anyone interested ? )

SO with MGX

I see definite distribution
maybe just normal profit taking
But too early to judge 
if any "smart " accumulation is happening


I would be looking out for some warning signs
of more significant distribution ( Like BPT had recently )

or for signs of accumulation to become evident
( like in SEK  )

compare MGX to MRE

and the equivalent bars to SEK

Some useful charts

An upside down MGX looks like accumulation
So what does that make MGX in reality ?

The P&F shows a topping formation
and two congestion areas that failed to make upward progress

I think I should wait for the "forced move"

What do We think of MRE today
What do We think of SEK today


I think when at the fork in a road
We are best to come to a firm conviction
But be ready to change our view immediately

No conviction We just get stuck ringing Our hands
going nowhere..

My opinions...

prices go up 
they stop going up
volume increases

what's happening ?





motorway


----------



## vert

thanks nm4s for you added imput, i am very much a student here 
something i definately want to learn but may take some time.

so instead of saying
*so demand is still strong and willing to keep paying that and above?*
i really should be saying this is distribution as the sp is now looking like it is in a trading range with high vol down days and low vol up days and larger trading ranges? which i can see

next should be accumulation high vol ups low vol downs in tighter ranges in theory?



> I think when at the fork in a road
> We are best to come to a firm conviction
> But be ready to change our view immediately



i think the direction will be tested at the bottom channel line if it trades sideways 
i guess what we want is for accumulation to come in before then so that the likely outcome is a positve move.

today i noticed that when the sp broke 1.30 and got to 1.34 it was met with supply and sold back to 1.31, i guess there is still some supply left before this can move in the near future.


----------



## CanOz

MRE and SEK are both encountering resistance in the form of supply

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Refer to charts, am i close with this?


----------



## motorway

Can

You have a weekly chart on SEK

Look at the daily... Things are starting to happen


The last wave up

Was a sign of strength.
It was a clear sign of demand starting to exert control.
That little wave had more following and less opposition
than any move in the entire trading range.

It is unlikely that it will go to the moon...
So the reaction back is the real test
How much following, How much opposition

Important to look at HOW FAR
And How much

IF We see 
A clear higher support form

We will have demand exerting control
and supply becoming passive

We might start to get a series
of higher highs and higher lows

That is what I am seeing
at this fork in the road

I see Buy setups forming

MRE ..

When following is gathered
even at close quarters
Buying puts selling on the back foot
Selling puts buying on the back foot

Buyers are finding that sellers who were put on the back foot from
The day before are now meeting them.

Key points I will be looking for
 Does demand stand it's ground
Is any selling absorbed..

MRE atm looks promising

After absorption
ease of movement should improve

What are trends made of ?
Waves of buying and selling that gather and lose followings

If We start to see higher lows
Which lead to higher highs ?

BINGO !

Busy day today
A few of My observations

See back later tonight

motorway


----------



## CanOz

Thanks motorway!

I've got the daily up on SEK, i hit the wrong file at first.


I see what your saying, i like the bit about about waves and thier following...

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

Well guys off for a few weeks sitting on an island in the Pacific (Hawaii) as of Sunday.
Hope all goes well in your exercise canaussiuk and will look in on my return.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Well guys off for a few weeks sitting on an island in the Pacific (Hawaii) as of Sunday.
> Hope all goes well in your exercise canaussiuk and will look in on my return.




Good timing with the AUD/USD pair Tech.

Have a safe trip.

Cheers,


----------



## R0n1n

Guys, looks like MRE will do what BSL did. Have a look... 
Now lemme try to analyze this stock the way Motorway does... (atlest I can attempt) 

The big green buying line on the 21st is when people were looking for good entry jumped in thinking it had broken its downward trend.

The big red selling line on the 29th was considered by many as a lower high and hence the big sale to offload the stock.

The blue square is where the buyers and sellers are testing each others strength and weakness. 

Currently it has formed a higher low. Now the million dollar question... buy or not ? 
To me its a cautious wait to see how it pans out on Monday.


----------



## nomore4s

tech/a said:


> Well guys off for a few weeks sitting on an island in the Pacific (Hawaii) as of Sunday.
> Hope all goes well in your exercise canaussiuk and will look in on my return.




Have fun Tech


----------



## nomore4s

motorway said:


> Look at the daily... Things are starting to happen
> 
> The last wave up
> 
> Was a sign of strength.
> It was a clear sign of demand starting to exert control.
> That little wave had more following and less opposition
> than any move in the entire trading range.
> 
> It is unlikely that it will go to the moon...
> So the reaction back is the real test
> How much following, How much opposition
> 
> Important to look at HOW FAR
> And How much
> 
> IF We see
> A clear higher support form
> 
> We will have demand exerting control
> and supply becoming passive
> 
> We might start to get a series
> of higher highs and higher lows
> 
> That is what I am seeing
> at this fork in the road
> 
> I see Buy setups forming
> 
> 
> motorway




Motorway,

In regards to SEK.
With the last 2 days they have been tighter range days with very little volume, how do you view these days? I see them as bullish, supply hasn't come in to push prices back down and both days have managed higher closes without much vol(effort), with today especially having very strong last 30mins and good close.

This is looking like a text book breakout with the pullback on reducing volume. Was expecting a pullback to around $7.60ish but $7.70 is looking fairly strong atm(this could change next week of course).

IMO needs to break above $7.91 to really confirm the break out of the trading channel. There also looks to be a double top @ $7.91. This is where the conviction of the buyers could be tested?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Good timing with the AUD/USD pair Tech.
> 
> Have a safe trip.
> 
> Cheers,




Can I took a small initial trade on SEK this afternoon on the weekly chart. As the  break out convinced me.

next move for seek could be futher up side with then a chance of a natural reaction which i will use to add on.

did you take the play?


----------



## motorway

nomore4s said:


> Motorway,
> 
> In regards to SEK.
> With the last 2 days they have been tighter range days with very little volume, how do you view these days? I see them as bullish, supply hasn't come in to push prices back down and both days have managed higher closes without much vol(effort), with today especially having very strong last 30mins and good close.
> 
> This is looking like a text book breakout with the pullback on reducing volume. Was expecting a pullback to around $7.60ish but $7.70 is looking fairly strong atm(this could change next week of course).
> 
> IMO needs to break above $7.91 to really confirm the break out of the trading channel. There also looks to be a double top @ $7.91. This is where the conviction of the buyers could be tested?




A lot to say 
little time to say it....
have a good look here

I think there is accumulation since
the first red arrow from the left..

A lot of volume and the subsequent action did what ?

The Second red arrow ?
A test 
more accumulation
lot less volume

Why ?

What happens then
is that price does not come back to the bottom of the trading range

The first time ( not marked )
A little wave moves up
How ordered are the bars ?
 ~ 11 of them

some duration some following

The last move down ( marked with the last red arrow )

Is short and abrupt . Not much duration .. Not much following

moves down are losing their following
sellers becoming unwilling ?

So what about the last wave 
it moves from just above the bottom of the trading range
All the way to the top
And it did not take much effort

This is a Sign of Strength

It is one of the signs I think We need to see
That confirms a readiness to move


What is the other ? That will confirm The SOS as a SOS

A lateral move just under the top of the trading range
That leads to a breakout near the top  "?"

Or a pullback to a clear last point of support
In the vicinity of the half way point marked..

I think it looks very promising
and I think your observations are correct..





> This is looking like a text book




I think there is a high degree of clarity

It is Now You have to decide when to pull the trigger ?


Another thing to keep in mind
IS the tide of the mkt

XJO is tracing out a broadening pattern in a trading range
It is swinging  back up to the top of the range

If XJO was in a clear uptrend
Our attempted longs would have the push of the market behind them

Back to SEK
A lateral move at the top of the range would 
in effect be our pullback
it would be absorption of supply
and the breakout might be a high probability trade

A move back that found no supply willing to follow
and clear support form in the vicinity of the halfway point

Would ( look at the chart ) be a clear change of behaviour
And might even be a higher probability buy point
having price coming right off the "Springboard"

( nice and close to support and close stop levels )

The SOS is already good confirmation
We just need the backup or lateral move to confirm the SOS
........

R0n1n

look at more of the chart for context
BSL

Where are We 
in relation to the halfway point
of the last main move up ?
and what ended that move

Who pulled the plug supply or demand

makes a difference maybe how much preparation
We need to see ( accumulation ) before the next move..

And finally
It is just observations for discussion

motorway


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Motorway for that analysis...Trade It, i've been in SEK from Tuesday with 800 CFDs in my personel portfolio but the only two we have in the Open Book plan are MAH, and MRE.

We need some more canidates for Monday morning....Keep them coming folks.

Cheers,


----------



## Porper

CanOz said:


> Thanks Motorway for that analysis...Trade It, i've been in SEK from Tuesday with 800 CFDs in my personel portfolio but the only two we have in the Open Book plan are MAH, and MRE.
> 
> We need some more canidates for Monday morning....Keep them coming folks.
> 
> Cheers,




Can,

Have a look at the CFE thread.I think it has good potential.
It is very early to pick the start of the hopefully long wave 5, (finishing the larger degree wave 3) but the early bird catches the worm !!

Could wait for more confirmation, ie. Wave B being exceeded but then the risk reward wouldn't be good enough.

Another way to trade it is to wait for wave B to be exceeded.We would then be in a minor degree wave 1.We could then trade from hopefully the low of wave 2 for a better risk/reward.

On my watchlist anyway and I may bite the bullet on Monday as per CFE thread.


----------



## CanOz

Still a bit of supply around in this one, but it might be one to keep an eye on


----------



## R0n1n

Here is DJS. Its been trading in its range for the last couple of days and has tested the upper limit and from the past record it has done this and broken out to fresh highs. Volume has been very supportive of it as can be seen on the 29th of June.

It might still trade in its range on Monday but its one to watch as when ever it breaks out from its range it would be good to get on board.


----------



## motorway

Here are some interesting charts for BPT
This skidded  hard into buy volume..

The action at the top came from a messy trading range
compare to the ranges that were continuations

The volume is Higher and the position is higher
Than when the bottom at $1.04 formed



Bar Chart
P&F chart
Intra Bar P&F chart with Volume..

motorway


----------



## Porper

Good charts motorway, and interesting to me as I bought into BPT late Friday.

I didn't go into deep analysis like you (don't use point and figure), but when you get abnormally high volume like Fridays and a close off the lows with good buying late on you can almost smell a reversal.

The buyers certainly stepped up,Mondays open will be interesting.

A guaranteed stop is essential with these type of trades i.m.o. 
__________________


----------



## motorway

Porper said:


> Good charts motorway, and interesting to me as I bought into BPT late Friday.
> 
> I didn't go into deep analysis like you (don't use point and figure), but when you get abnormally high volume like Fridays and a close off the lows with good buying late on you can almost smell a reversal.
> 
> The buyers certainly stepped up,Mondays open will be interesting.
> 
> A guaranteed stop is essential with these type of trades i.m.o.
> __________________




To buy on Friday You would have to be operating on an intraday basis
prepared to take the commensurate magnitude that such trading offers
And be quick and close with the stop..

From the action
The wide spread and heavy volume 
Suggests a selling climax
Which if confirmed 
signifies the end of the down move..


*BUT*  does not necessarily signal the start of an up move..
There could still be more selling or
BPT could simply range

The action examined as a series of tests and responses
will in time reveal...

Certainly  Friday was a day to cover shorts
and was an example of an active exit.
exiting from indications ..

So Signs of an end to the stride down
At this stage not enough to suggest 
a move up..

Of course anything can happen..

Should be on the watch list..
And I can see it could be on
someones buy setup..

motorway


----------



## Porper

motorway said:


> To buy on Friday You would have to be operating on an intraday basis
> prepared to take the commensurate magnitude that such trading offers
> And be quick and close with the stop..




Absolutely right.I don't intraday trade but just happened to be watching BPT and was seeing the momentum change.

What clinched it for me was that almost all prior swings finished on Fib retracements and the larger swing from the low on the chart to the high had bounced strongly off the 0.618%  line.

Maybe my logic is filled with faults but seemed like a very good R/Reward to me at the time, as my stop is just below the 0.618 retracement line.

Maybe some intraday swing traders can comment on their set up criteria.


----------



## CanOz

Well folks, this is the only opportunity i found thats looking worth the R/R. At 2.8:1 with a tight stop it might be worth a go. A few sellers around a few days back, but generally the price action looks more favorable than unfavorable to me.


----------



## CanOz

Resolute Mining:
Anyone like to comment on this volume? Someone likes to buy at these levels.

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Well folks, this is the only opportunity i found thats looking worth the R/R. At 2.8:1 with a tight stop it might be worth a go. A few sellers around a few days back, but generally the price action looks more favorable than unfavorable to me.




Can, worth watching, be interesting to see if it bounces off the trend line or if it ranges for a while between 60c @ 66.5c. 
Probably not a trade I would take at this stage though. Might have run too hard already, time for some consolidation?
A strong break through 67c with good vol might change that though, would need to re-look at it if & when that happens.


----------



## Porper

CanOz said:


> Resolute Mining:
> Anyone like to comment on this volume? Someone likes to buy at these levels.
> 
> Cheers,




I think the daily data is choppy, apart from the last couple of weeks so had a look at the weekly.

I don't know much about volume analysis but to me it looks like there is distribution going on here.Closes well off the highs with very high volume must mean there are a lot of sellers around.

I wouldn't buy, so jump in Can, it is bound to go up


----------



## R0n1n

Guys, quick question.. When do you pyramid your position ?

I had taken a small position on MRE and it starting to rise, so just wondering when is a good time to pyramid in ? Do you look at a % rise or give the stock a day or two to settle in on the run or just look at the resistance line ?

thanx.


----------



## CanOz

R0n1n said:


> Guys, quick question.. When do you pyramid your position ?
> 
> I had taken a small position on MRE and it starting to rise, so just wondering when is a good time to pyramid in ? Do you look at a % rise or give the stock a day or two to settle in on the run or just look at the resistance line ?
> 
> thanx.




Good question Ron1n, and in my opinion you would treat it as a separate opportunity to buy the stock on another breakout etc...but others will have some good advice i would imagine.

Good to see it moving again.

Cheers,


----------



## CFD

The first thing I would wait for is the stop loss to make the first trade risk free, so that you do not increase the risk on the one stock. Is it accepted that you should pyramid your position ?


----------



## CanOz

CFD said:


> The first thing I would wait for is the stop loss to make the first trade risk free, so that you do not increase the risk on the one stock. Is it accepted that you should pyramid your position ?




Yes, this is an excellent point, the first step is too move your stop to breakeven once its met your criteria for breakeven. My criteria is that is must get to 2x the value from the entry price to my stop.

Then once its moved on you can pyramid if the opportunity presents itself and its meets your criteria. An alternative to pyramiding is to use the extra realised profits from your trading to increase the capital you trade with, ie. 20,000 @ 2% = 400 / trade but 25,000 @ 2% = 500 risk / trade.

Cheers,


----------



## chrisdedavid

CanOz said:


> Well folks, this is the only opportunity i found thats looking worth the R/R. At 2.8:1 with a tight stop it might be worth a go. A few sellers around a few days back, but generally the price action looks more favorable than unfavorable to me.




Wait for red line to cross the blue line in your PNA (that is if it ever does : )


----------



## motorway

R0n1n said:


> Guys, quick question.. When do you pyramid your position ?
> 
> I had taken a small position on MRE and it starting to rise, so just wondering when is a good time to pyramid in ? Do you look at a % rise or give the stock a day or two to settle in on the run or just look at the resistance line ?
> 
> thanx.




Have a look here
at The Wyckoff Methods  "rule of 3"

http://www.tsaasf.org/images/stories/newsletters/tsaa newsletter summer 2001.pdf



> just look at the resistance line




I would look to buy of clear support
Where ever price and volume 
reveals that to be

At junctures that reveal
NO supply

cheers
motorway


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Well folks, this is the only opportunity i found thats looking worth the R/R. At 2.8:1 with a tight stop it might be worth a go. A few sellers around a few days back, but generally the price action looks more favorable than unfavorable to me.




Can, did you buy this one? Had a pretty strong day today. Volume could've been higher but still not bad.


----------



## CanOz

nomore4s said:


> Can, did you buy this one? Had a pretty strong day today. Volume could've been higher but still not bad.




Bugger no, i didn't. In between actual work i was experimenting with pivot points in different times frames on the ASX200 cash index on IG Markets....fascinating!

It really didn't meet my new rules, 3:1 OR NONE i say!...this helps me be more patient.

Its on the watch list though....just cooking dinner and doing the nitely routine, see what it turns up for tomorrow hey.

Going to Shanghai soon, gonna get on that train Nomore4s!

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Bugger no, i didn't. In between actual work i was experimenting with pivot points in different times frames on the ASX200 cash index on IG Markets....fascinating!
> 
> It really didn't meet my new rules, 3:1 OR NONE i say!...this helps me be more patient.
> 
> Its on the watch list though....just cooking dinner and doing the nitely routine, see what it turns up for tomorrow hey.
> 
> Going to Shanghai soon, gonna get on that train Nomore4s!
> 
> Cheers,




Good work with the rules on the R/R ratio, good idea imo.

Enjoy the ride can, the whole 8mins or so


----------



## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> In regards to SEK.
> 
> IMO needs to break above $7.91 to really confirm the break out of the trading channel. There also looks to be a double top @ $7.91. This is where the conviction of the buyers could be tested?




SEK was looking good in the morning session to break through that $7.90ish resistance but was sold back down in the arvo to close near its low on lowish vol again, not a good sign imo. Hopefully it can hold above $7.60 or it will signal an exit for me and I will look to re-enter later.



CanOz said:


> MRE and SEK are both encountering resistance in the form of supply




I'm not sure about it being supply, with the low vol and prices not being sold down too far (yet) looks more like a lack of demand?

Thoughts?


----------



## nomore4s

motorway said:


> Have a look here
> at The Wyckoff Methods  "rule of 3"
> 
> http://www.tsaasf.org/images/stories/newsletters/tsaa newsletter summer 2001.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> I would look to buy of clear support
> Where ever price and volume
> reveals that to be
> 
> At junctures that reveal
> NO supply
> 
> cheers
> motorway





Thanks Motorway, trying to get as much info on Wyckoff as I can atm.

I actually use a very similar method (by pure chance). The reason is I have a very small capital base and I needed a way to pyramid into positions without raising my risk but if I split my max risk and initial position into 3rds it would be too small to make it worth it.


----------



## nomore4s

Porper said:


> Can,
> 
> Have a look at the CFE thread.I think it has good potential.
> It is very early to pick the start of the hopefully long wave 5, (finishing the larger degree wave 3) but the early bird catches the worm !!
> 
> Could wait for more confirmation, ie. Wave B being exceeded but then the risk reward wouldn't be good enough.
> 
> Another way to trade it is to wait for wave B to be exceeded.We would then be in a minor degree wave 1.We could then trade from hopefully the low of wave 2 for a better risk/reward.
> 
> On my watchlist anyway and I may bite the bullet on Monday as per CFE thread.




Porper did you get an entry on this today?

I missed the opportunity for my final pyramid position with a type of swing trade set up that I've been looking at, but I've only just started looking at this type of set up and didn't have enough faith in it, showing my inexperience, will post up the info sometime tomorrow.

Be good to get some feed back on it from some more experienced people as well.


----------



## CanOz

Heres another for the watchlist...massive vol....what the?

Cheers,


----------



## motorway

nomore4s said:


> SEK was looking good in the morning session to break through that $7.90ish resistance but was sold back down in the arvo to close near its low on lowish vol again, not a good sign imo. Hopefully it can hold above $7.60 or it will signal an exit for me and I will look to re-enter later.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not sure about it being supply, with the low vol and prices not being sold down too far (yet) looks more like a lack of demand?
> 
> Thoughts?




There was some supply on the 3rd and 4th
I was looking to see either that that supply was absorbed by a lateral move and It then broke out. 

or It will have to head back down to do some more "work" 

atm it looks like it is heading back down

maybe to set up a buy point ...
In the vicinity of  $7.5

Or maybe Not  ,If instead I see ease of movement all the way back to the bottom of the range Thus negating the Sign of strength that I was looking to be confirmed.

Have a look at the BPT chart posted  see the upthrust after the lateral move ?

Well SEK just had an upthrust...
Not on the same scale for sure..

But still suggesting to Me weakness atm


motorway


----------



## Porper

nomore4s said:


> Porper did you get an entry on this today?
> 
> I missed the opportunity for my final pyramid position with a type of swing trade set up that I've been looking at, but I've only just started looking at this type of set up and didn't have enough faith in it, showing my inexperience, will post up the info sometime tomorrow.
> 
> Be good to get some feed back on it from some more experienced people as well.




Nomore,

No, didn't get on again, Risk/reward wasn't high enough, I almost pulled the trigger but that would be going against my rules (emotion coming in)  .I won't trade it unless the R/R is 4 or more.

If this is a new lower degree wave 1, I will wait for the pullback and try and pick the start of the wave 3 up to the larger gegree wave 3.it may not pull back, we'll just have to see.


----------



## CanOz

motorway said:


> Have a look at the BPT chart posted  see the upthrust after the lateral move ?
> 
> Well SEK just had an upthrust...
> Not on the same scale for sure..
> 
> But still suggesting to Me weakness atm
> 
> 
> motorway




Seemed like a little test of supply to me, still some there too.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

Guys, remember that to achieve a certain R/R, trade frequency is a very important factor. If you hardly trade, then you will not achieve the positive expectancy of the system. Also, not every trade has to be R/R>4 for overall R/R for a system over X no. of trades over N number of years, to be 4.

Porper, how do you come to price targets? From fib numbers like Can?
Have you found in the past these projections to be accurate?

Like Iv said in the past, i cant assess R/R because i dont know how to, and also i dont want to limit the upside. I would hate to cap my winners.


----------



## Porper

nizar said:


> Guys, remember that to achieve a certain R/R, trade frequency is a very important factor. If you hardly trade, then you will not achieve the positive expectancy of the system. Also, not every trade has to be R/R>4 for overall R/R for a system over X no. of trades over N number of years, to be 4.
> 
> Porper, how do you come to price targets? From fib numbers like Can?
> Have you found in the past these projections to be accurate?
> 
> Like Iv said in the past, i cant assess R/R because i dont know how to, and also i dont want to limit the upside. I would hate to cap my winners.




Not sure I follow you here Nizar, trade frequency shouldn't make any difference.In the long term the expectancy will be the same no matter how often you trade.

As for price targets I use Fib projections, time & price.Sometimes use measured moves from triangle breakouts etc, but not  something I scan for.

I never take profits at projected targets, only tighten the stops right up.Like you say, never sell for the sake of it when the trend continues.


----------



## nizar

Anybody here still following SEK?

Seems to be on the UP today, on low volumes, indicating a lack of supply.

Still a long way before the close, will be interesting to see if theres resistance at the $7.93-7.95 level as seen in the past or whether it breaks out.


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Anybody here still following SEK?
> 
> Seems to be on the UP today, on low volumes, indicating a lack of supply.
> 
> Still a long way before the close, will be interesting to see if theres resistance at the $7.93-7.95 level as seen in the past or whether it breaks out.




Yeah i'm still in it my real portfolio, Nick reviewed it last night in the Chartist too....might tighten up the stop tomorrow.

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

nizar said:


> Anybody here still following SEK?
> 
> Seems to be on the UP today, on low volumes, indicating a lack of supply.
> 
> Still a long way before the close, will be interesting to see if theres resistance at the $7.93-7.95 level as seen in the past or whether it breaks out.




What just happened to SEK? Comsec down logged back in and it's at $8.10 with a high of $8.26, where'd that come from?


----------



## nizar

nomore4s said:


> What just happened to SEK? Comsec down logged back in and it's at $8.10 with a high of $8.26, where'd that come from?




Couple of big orders.
A 12k took out the $7.95 sellers, and then an 8k took it upto $8.00.

After that it started running like a champion, sell side was thin.

Looks to me like a couple of buy-gain orders were triggered from those on the sidelines.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

CanOz said:


> Yeah i'm still in it my real portfolio, Nick reviewed it last night in the Chartist too....might tighten up the stop tomorrow.
> 
> Cheers,




What was Nick's take on it Can?

NIZ.....,

Watching the order flow can be misleading at times.


----------



## nizar

Snake yes i know.
I usually dont take much notice, but since nomore4s asked, i brought it up and had a look.

Id be keen to know your take on SEK, snake.

I think its gonna go big time, the last stock i remember to break out from a 4-month consolidation was AED at $5.25. Look what happened there


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

nizar said:


> Snake yes i know.
> I usually dont take much notice, but since nomore4s asked, i brought it up and had a look.
> 
> Id be keen to know your take on SEK, snake.
> 
> I think its gonna go big time, the last stock i remember to break out from a 4-month consolidation was AED at $5.25. Look what happened there



NIZ..,

Well it has made a new high today and pulled back a bit. It can only mean that it is bullish as we see it. We may see some weakness before the push up or maybe not. Yesterday we had a pullback from $8. That's the perspective. As long as it holds above $7 and doesn't drop below $6.50ish the bears would then take control I feel.

Ultimately I don't know though and have no inclination of trying to know.  This is just discussion in answer to your question.

Enjoy your trading.
Snake


----------



## CanOz

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> What was Nick's take on it Can?
> 
> QUOTE]
> 
> You need to join to find out Snake!
> 
> Seriously, maybe he'll pop a chart in later...i don't like to steal his thunder.
> 
> Cheers,


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

CanOz said:


> It's Snake Pliskin said:
> 
> 
> 
> What was Nick's take on it Can?
> 
> QUOTE]
> 
> You need to join to find out Snake!
> 
> Seriously, maybe he'll pop a chart in later...i don't like to steal his thunder.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just asked.
> Ok.... What is your take on it then?
Click to expand...


----------



## CanOz

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> CanOz said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just asked.
> Ok.... What is your take on it then?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well really the volume isn't too encouraging..but as Nizar says, and has seen, there ain't allot of interest in selling either.
> 
> Reese was saying that there's allot of shorts in at the moment, i wonder if that is some covering we're seeing?
> 
> Cheers,
Click to expand...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

CanOz said:


> It's Snake Pliskin said:
> 
> 
> 
> Well really the volume isn't too encouraging..but as Nizar says, and has seen, there ain't allot of interest in selling either.
> 
> Reese was saying that there's allot of shorts in at the moment, i wonder if that is some covering we're seeing?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes that lack of volume is across a lot of other stocks too.
Click to expand...


----------



## nizar

Snake are you still holding ROC?
Fair recovery from that long tail.

Can, take a look at MPO. Seems to be strong support (previous resistance) at 28.5c. Whats your projected R/R on this one?


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Snake are you still holding ROC?
> Fair recovery from that long tail.
> 
> Can, take a look at MPO. Seems to be strong support (previous resistance) at 28.5c. Whats your projected R/R on this one?




161.8% fibb target is 36.5, with a stop at 28.5 and an entry at 31 gives a 2.1:1

I've had this in my personal portfolio for a while too....but not as long as you

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

Hey Can, here's one to watch if it breaks resistance at $3.55 (ROC).

Not really low risk though, the best place for the stop would be $3.20ish? Could maybe place a very tight stop at the $3.45 level but it makes the trade a bit risker.


----------



## CanOz

Agree Nomore4s, i think we'll take a posi tomorrow.

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> Porper did you get an entry on this today?
> 
> I missed the opportunity for my final pyramid position with a type of swing trade set up that I've been looking at, but I've only just started looking at this type of set up and didn't have enough faith in it, showing my inexperience, will post up the info sometime tomorrow.
> 
> Be good to get some feed back on it from some more experienced people as well.




Here's a chart with some of the swing trade set ups.
The swing trade idea/system was in Smart Investor Magazine this month and has got me interested. I will mainly look at using it with stocks I'm already holding a position in and am in profit with already, will use it as a type of pyramid and/or a short term trade (tight trailing stop) to scalp some more off the trend.

Will be looking for consecutive down days after a high.

The rules I will be using are:
1) The stock must be in a strong uptrend - Higher lows. (The orange line on the chart)
2) Entry will be a break of the previous days high (the day before the low).
3) Stop loss will be at the last low (or the next price under to allow for price movement) - Tighter the stop the better.

I realise this is nothing new but it is a new strategy for me.
Any comments and/or ideas & hints will be gladly taken on board.
I haven't taken a trade with this set up yet.

Does anyone else use this method?


----------



## vert

ok guys a few questions on this trade im in, MGX
first i high lighted my target 1.57 which is 3:1 given my entry was 1.27 and stop 1.17.
i havent used fib projections yet but have seen a few thrown up and thought i would have a go and the 261.8 has landed next mine (looks good to me)
my trailing stop started as a close below channel
now since it hasnt traded sideways a bit longer towards the channel as i thought it would i am thinking of moving my stop a bit closer as i dont want to miss out on some of the profits i have gained
my thoughts would be to place my stop at 1.35 now just under todays low and under 2 weeks ago high that was broken yesterday 
this would be 5% to stop and would it be logical to trail the sp by this from now on.


----------



## nizar

Nomore4s.
Im liking ROC.
I think $3.45 would be a good stop (about 10c from entry).

Any pullback shouldnt close below $3.45 for the breakout to be valid.
Im my opinion.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

nizar said:


> Snake are you still holding ROC?
> Fair recovery from that long tail.
> 
> Can, take a look at MPO. Seems to be strong support (previous resistance) at 28.5c. Whats your projected R/R on this one?




No I'm not. Hows this? I held even after my mental stop had been hit and held for a while then it went back up and looked weak. I sold it.


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Nomore4s.
> Im liking ROC.
> I think $3.45 would be a good stop (about 10c from entry).
> 
> Any pullback shouldnt close below $3.45 for the breakout to be valid.
> Im my opinion.




OK guys, any break above 3.55 and we're in at market with a stop below 3.07....i really think we need it wide Nizar....I've been taken out of so many longs lately with stops too close....TAP comes to mind.

I have the first profit target at 5.08, so this gives me 3.1:1 which is acceptable...just.

The question is, will the oil bulls win over the market bears today to get us above the 3.55 mark?

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

FYI, portfolio looking a bit sick at the moment....


----------



## motorway

CanOz said:


> FYI, portfolio looking a bit sick at the moment....




Some points I emphasized in earlier posts..




> How are you factoring the trend in the mkt
> and position and timing
> 
> What is you time frame
> what magnitude of moves
> are you drawing trend lines from
> what moves are you trying to catch




Unless You have a clear view
Unless You then act in harmony with that view.

You will be out of step on a number of fronts
Your actions will not have harmony...

My view ( what has yours been ? )
Is that the mkt has been in a range..

Hence everything else then has context
I made the point of How much better our longs would be
If the mkt was in a defined uptrend..




> Buy SUPPORT
> Sell Resistance
> 
> At the top of the rally
> a natural reaction at least is to be expected..............................
> ...................Buy support WITH strength
> Sell resistance WITH Weakness




MRE is a good example

Entry matters

whether to make an entry in the first place is a decision
what sort of mkt is it How are You going to play it ?

Sit it out ?

R0nin ?

I think MRE is giving a good example
Of WHY it is better to buy off support
That is where the selling subsides
and demand is seen to start to overcome the supply.

Again

You asked



> just look at the resistance line




I made the point again



> I would look to buy of clear support
> Where ever price and volume
> reveals that to be
> 
> At junctures that reveal
> NO supply





Can

It has been a range bound mkt
How many buying at the tops and selling at the bottoms ?

Easy to be out of step

Keep the bigger picture in view


Nomre4s..

In the article on the rule of three

look at the entry points
and then look at Your swing chart..

SEK
There is a difference between a move outside of a marked trading range
and a clear Jump over and supply

Upthrusts don't look like very good jumps to Me

look at the "ease of movement"

A series of bars with closes at the High which do not overlap
would be maximum "ease of movement"

How much ease of movement in SEK ?

A move out of a trading range is a test BUT ...

A successful "JUMP" is where the VOLUME shows it to be..


Just some observations

motorway


----------



## nomore4s

motorway said:


> Nomre4s..
> 
> In the article on the rule of three
> 
> look at the entry points
> and then look at Your swing chart..
> 
> motorway




Motorway, haven't had time for a close inspection, but after looking at the article again it looks like only entry 2 & 5 on the swing charts would have been close to buy signals? ie after higher highs & higher lows had been made?

Again not sure if I'm on the right track, pretty busy atm, will study further tonight (hopefully).

Have some other thoughts about what you said about the market & entries etc that I might post tonight as well.


----------



## motorway

Here is the original study of which that  rule  of "3" paper
Used as the example...

So here is a link to it for completion...




> The Wyckoff Method is a school of thought in technical market
> analysis that necessitates judgment. The analyst- trader acquires judgment
> through experience and through well-guided illustrations of
> basic principles. Although the Wyckoff Method is not a mechanical
> system per se, nevertheless high reward/low risk entry points can be
> routinely and systematically judged with the aid of a checklist of “Nine
> Tests.” Each test in the list of “Nine Tests” represents a Wyckoff Principle.
> One purpose of this article is to demonstrate the “Nine Classic
> Buying Tests” of the Wyckoff Method at work via a case study of the
> stock of the San Francisco Company. Although the case name is disguised
> as the San Francisco Company (SF), it does represent an actual
> company in the energy sector. For the sake of economy, the
> illustrations in this article feature the bull side of the market, they
> can be inverted to illustrate the bear-side of the market.
> The classic set of “Nine Classic Buying Tests” (and “Nine Selling
> Tests”) was designed to diagnose significant reversal formations




http://www.hankpruden.com/nineclassic.pdf



> A speculator must concern himself with making
> money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape
> must agree with him.
> “Therefore, the thing to determine is the speculative line of least
> resistance at the moment of trading; and what he should wait
> for is the moment when that line defines itself, because that is
> his signal to get busy.”
> 
> Reminiscences of a Stock Operator




Can I hope it is not off topic 

But The quote out of reminiscence Should be right on topic

The nine tests are part of a larger whole...
An important part being the trend and position in the trend of the "Market".
Then there are other considerations once a trend is underway..


On the P&F
It measures a trading range in a different way to just time

The MKT has been in a trading range
so many days so many bars

all stocks in a range have the same number of days
same number of bars

But in terms of swings and relative strength ?
All ranges are different

Some of these ranges will have less swings than the mkt
some many more

P&F is one way of observing this difference

Some stocks P&F charts stopped moving
some are racing across the chart
Hence a  different measure of time

What Wyckoff calls the building of a cause..

It is the principles that matter
Here is a good principle

look at the swings in the ranges
( and on a particular time frame every chart is in a range )



motorway


----------



## R0n1n

Motorway I am starting to see what you ment by Buying at support with ref to MRE. It is really close to my stop loss line though.


----------



## nomore4s

Motorway do you have any good links for learning to use & read p&F charts?

As I slowly (very slowly) begin to understand some of what you're saying it's slowly changing the way I look at the market and the way I trade. I definately need more patience waiting for the tade to come to me.

Thanks


----------



## Zero Sum

HVN: Harvey Norman chart looks interesting, an all time high close after a two month consolidation, my type of trade. If JBH is anything to go by this has plenty of upside left. Does this fit in with your methodology Canaussieuck?


----------



## CanOz

Yes Zero Sum i like it! What could we use as a profit target?

I wonder if this will affect this and similar stocks?



> COMMONWEALTH Bank chief Ralph Norris says Australia's debt-laden household sector had reached its capacity for debt and a slowdown in borrowing is expected.
> 
> Mr Norris said hopes his business banking division will counter an expected slowdown in personal lending over the next year.
> 
> Speaking at a business lunch in Melbourne yesterday, Mr Norris said Australia's debt-laden household sector had reached its capacity for personal loans.
> 
> "If you look at the capacity for people to borrow, it's obviously getting to very high levels of capacity and I think there will be a tempering of demand in regard to personal lending," he said.
> "We have reached capacity for people to borrow which would see them start to reduce their appetite for additional borrowing.
> 
> "So we'll see a slowing in growth for personal lending and an increase in growth for business lending."
> 
> Since Mr Norris took over the reins of the bank in September 2005, one of his priorities has been to improve CBA's share of the business-lending market.
> 
> Rival major banks and niche lenders have eroded CBA's business customer market share from 22 per cent to 13 per cent in the last decade.
> 
> One of the big changes Mr Norris has made has put business bankers back into branches.
> 
> Despite the bearish outlook , the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released data showing that personal finance commitments rose by 2.2 per cent in May.
> 
> On a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of personal lending reached $6.7 billion -- slightly above the trend figure of $6.6 billion.
> 
> The ABS said the rise was driven by a 5.6 per cent increase in revolving credit, which included credit cards and overdrafts, offsetting a 1.4 per cent decline in fixed-term loans.
> 
> CommSec equities economist Martin Arnold said the rise in personal finance indicated that consumers still had confidence in their financial position.
> 
> He noted monthly changes in lending finance figures were often volatile and best viewed over a longer period.
> 
> He said the rise in personal finance in May consolidated falls in the previous months.
> 
> Personal finance commitments dropped by about 0.5 per cent in April and 0.6 per cent in March.
> 
> Mr Arnold said commercial finance picked up during May as the robust business environment encouraged companies to invest in construction projects and the property market.
> 
> "Business lending makes up over 60 per cent of total lending, so it is an encouraging sign for future growth that businesses continue to expand their working capacity," he said.
> 
> with AAP




Cheers,


----------



## Zero Sum

CanOz said:


> Yes Zero Sum i like it! What could we use as a profit target?
> 
> I wonder if this will affect this and similar stocks?
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers,




I can't help you with price targets I've never used them in my trading, I'm not smart enough to know when a stock will stop going up, thats why I use trailing stops. I can see where price targets can be useful but my poor win strikerate means that I need to make the most out the winners that I do find. I would need a win strikerate of at least 60% to even consider short term target trading. As far as the article is concerned, as a technical trader you can't let news articles influence your decisions unless it directly relates to that particular stock and even then you should consult the chart first.


----------



## Porper

Zero Sum said:


> I can't help you with price targets I've never used them in my trading, I'm not smart enough to know when a stock will stop going up, thats why I use trailing stops. I can see where price targets can be useful but my poor win strikerate means that I need to make the most out the winners that I do find. I would need a win strikerate of at least 60% to even consider short term target trading. As far as the article is concerned, as a technical trader you can't let news articles influence your decisions unless it directly relates to that particular stock and even then you should consult the chart first.




Very difficult to put a price target for a short term move.Not many pullbacks to speak of...................just up, up, and up some more.


Having said that, the breakout isn't emphatic.Had a test a few days ago, but  rejected on V.high volume.

Todays breakout on very low volume.That can all change of course,if the XJO breaks out, blue sky stocks like this will do well,but indicators looking more towards overbought for this stock i.m.o.

A couple of nice swing lows to put a stop under though.


----------



## R0n1n

What Motorway has been trying to show us .. 


> Buy SUPPORT
> Sell Resistance




I have been having a look and TAH came on my scan. It bounced off its support line with nice volume. It has been struggling to break out and but kept falling back to its support line. It hit the upper resistance line and if the positive volume keeps coming it will likely rise, otherwise it will fall back to its support line, which is where an entry should be. There is also ease of movement visible in the last bar.

Comments please.....


----------



## CanOz

Zero Sum said:


> I can't help you with price targets I've never used them in my trading, I'm not smart enough to know when a stock will stop going up, thats why I use trailing stops. I can see where price targets can be useful but my poor win strikerate means that I need to make the most out the winners that I do find. I would need a win strikerate of at least 60% to even consider short term target trading. As far as the article is concerned, as a technical trader you can't let news articles influence your decisions unless it directly relates to that particular stock and even then you should consult the chart first.




Well i like to use targets now to help determine the R/R of the trade...to each is own. This system will use trailing stops as specified a dozen or so pages earlier.

I'm not real keen on this sector to be honest, perhaps it will improve. I like the all time highs but i'm not particularly impressed with the volume....could regret it.

Ron1n, this ones been on my watchlist, probably from the same scan for about two weeks now, as it built that triangle. The thing that annoys me is that the triangle is not on or at highs, its below...so to me caution is warrented. The close on the high is good, but are there still some sellers about, do we need more confirmation?

My thoughts anyway Ron1n, good spot...was that the triangle scan?

Cheers,


----------



## R0n1n

Hey Can, yes it came up on the same scan. The reason I brought it up is cos Motorway talked about buying at support and I wanted to explore this option as it will be a good line under which I can set a stop loss and get a good R/R ratio.


----------



## nizar

Hi Can,

What do you (and others) think of EXM?
Range trading within a narrow range the last 3-4 days, general uptrend.
A bit like CUO before it broke out??
(PPP also consolidated within narrow range for 3-4 days before todays candle)

Thoughts??


----------



## nomore4s

Here's one (MXI) that broke out today on very low vol though.


----------



## motorway

> I can't help you with price targets I've never used them in my trading, I'm not smart enough to know when a stock will stop going up, thats why I use trailing stops.




Their Primary purpose is another reason to take one trade over another
We hopefully have more trades to take than funds to take them with
and If We over diversify We maybe lose focus and retreat to a mkt average
return...

As the move unfolds they are ( How ever determined ) a way of judging
the relative strength of one trade Vs another and provide stop look and listen points ..
eg In the BPT chart I posted when price reached the vicinity of the downside target. would You automatically close the short ? No.
But when the climatic stopping action appeared as well ? Yes..

An active exit  frees up funds for another entry with better R/R at that time

The R/R of an existing position deteriorates as the move progresses

R/R means defining risk and having some conception of reward

What is important is time frame and opportunity cost..
rather than eking out a few last points of profit..

...........

TAH

Some positive signs to that chart

On the last BAR.... Even individual BARS represent waves of Buying and selling
that attract and gather followings

Demand was the winner and Volume shows a larger following

What does that tell Us about the following on the supply side ?

From the top supply has been overcomimg demand
But the price action  found support ( some good indicative BARS show demand ,Vol off the bottom ) and demand and supply have come into equilibrium as the bars have moved across the trend channel
forming your triangle

What does the last BAR say about the the balance between demand and supply NOW ?

But Do We need more evidence , After every thrust there is the reaction 
Have We had any higher lows ?

too early ?
.........................

MXI... low volume but ...

The last BAR has very good range and close
in this case with demand reaching so Far what does it suggest the low volume
is caused by ?

The last 6 BARS tell a nice story.. They took out some suggested resistance 

Do We wait for a  backup ? Should We wait for the a selling wave to see
If there is no longer any following at these prices ?

..........................

HVN there was nice volume in the rally then volume did fall in the reaction
but just Now... Does it look a little tired ?

............................


The trend of the market is so important
What sectors are building strength and weakness ?




> As I slowly (very slowly) begin to understand some of what you're saying it's slowly changing the way I look at the market and the way I trade. I definately need more patience waiting for the tade to come to me.




There will always be opportunity... The key is Not losing money while the standout opportunities arrive...

If the mkt breaks out with vigor into a new leg of the bull mkt
How easy then ? Even second rate plays will make money ..

But If price reacts back down to the bottom of the current trend channel
Well taking longs is like pushing string...
it can be done, But.............

P&F is worth looking into
it aggregates all the waves of action
and does not have a fixed time scale

Bar/candle charts cut the swings of the (market )pendulum into discrete periods of time
P&F charts cut time into discrete swings of the (market) pendulum.

One column may be 3 bars because they are really one bar
the next column in the other direction may be 6 bars because they are really one bar.
Then because of the filter the next 10 bars are ignored because they are really nothing...

Now You could make a bar chart that changed it's time frame as the trends and speed of the trends changed (very hard ).Or You could have a chart that automatically adapted to the action because it was price and not time driven ..

On the bar chart you would have 19 bars across
On the P&F chart You would have three columns

sometimes it could be the other way around ( That is only with a pure P&F ).


The main difficulty has been  the trend and position in that trend of the Market... It is the great tide that all the individual opportunities are treading water in...

As I wright this the DOW is up over 100 points
One thing the range is building is a cause
We get a breakout 
It should propel many longs into good trades..

Do We see any change of behavior with the last two bars ?

motorway


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Hi Can,
> 
> What do you (and others) think of EXM?
> Range trading within a narrow range the last 3-4 days, general uptrend.
> A bit like CUO before it broke out??
> (PPP also consolidated within narrow range for 3-4 days before todays candle)
> 
> Thoughts??




EXM looks darn close to a cup and handle...

I think we need first class trades in this market, as MW says, we need the best trades in the best sectors...you know i'm so excited to be in these conditions....and i'm becoming more patient, more content to wait for the trades to come to us. 

Thanks guys.

PS. Great insight M.Way.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Someone remind me again why we didn't take this trade

Anyway..i'll post a few or at least one potential up tonite.

You know i came home tonite thinking there might be quite a few buys signals on my scans with stocks breaking out...not the case...the market still looks really weak to me...excepting a couple of sectors, maybe i'll post them up to and we could work from there.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

The best looking index award for the last 2 days goes too.....the XIJ, information technology sector.

Then its the XMJ. thanks to a couple of well priced miners...


----------



## vert

> Someone remind me again why we didn't take this trade



well i did and now im out. why? it has hit the top of the channel and almost my target.
momentum has turned down, rsi is in overbought teritory, slow stochs have closed and turning down and sp has breached top bollinger sugesting this trend is over. also ther was a gap up today and it was friday a good day to take profits.
looks like SEK has gone alright for you though, cant be on everything


----------



## CanOz

OST...looking good from the price action side of things i reckon...

Good on ya Vert for having a go at that one!

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Heres another one...EWC, tracing out a good triangle not far off all time highs...

Cheers,


----------



## R0n1n

Here is another one. SSX.

It gapped up today so it will likely come down to fill it. The concern is volume. Although its higher and positive but its not above average. Put it this way, people are not stampeding to buy this stock. Something to note on the chart is that a support line will likely become a resistance line.


----------



## nomore4s

R0n1n said:


> Here is another one. SSX.
> 
> It gapped up today so it will likely come down to fill it. The concern is volume. Although its higher and positive but its not above average. Put it this way, people are not stampeding to buy this stock. Something to note on the chart is that a support line will likely become a resistance line.




Ron1n, you'll probably find this is linked to OST because of the merger, when OST goes up so does SSX (check both charts back to March/April). With the merger you get 9 OST shares for every 22 SSX shares and a 6c D/E as well, so the higher the OST sp the more SSX shares are worth.

I hold SSX shares since Jan, so go you good things.


----------



## nizar

Can,

EXM is looking very good now.
Not much on the depth after 3c the sell side is thin.

I mite pick some up on mondays open, initial stop at 2.6c.
Should be able to get them at 3c.

I suspect if i wait EOD for confirmation I may have to pay 4c+ as she may run hard once 3/3.1 is smashed.

Any thoughts??


----------



## Porper

nizar said:


> Can,
> 
> EXM is looking very good now.
> Not much on the depth after 3c the sell side is thin.
> 
> I mite pick some up on mondays open, initial stop at 2.6c.
> Should be able to get them at 3c.
> 
> I suspect if i wait EOD for confirmation I may have to pay 4c+ as she may run hard once 3/3.1 is smashed.
> 
> Any thoughts??




Well you certainly wouldn't find a stock like this on any CFD providors universe.

Volume has picked up recently but still only $178000 worth traded on Friday.

I just think that eventually trading stocks like this, you will get caught out, any bad news and how will you get out................you won't, a double or nothing gamble i.m.o.

Also very difficult to put a count on a thinly traded stock as everything looks corrective with overlapping price action.

Could argue that this is the start of wave 5, but stretching the rules a bit and maybe trying to make a count fit for emotional reasons.


----------



## CanOz

Porper said:


> Well you certainly wouldn't find a stock like this on any CFD providors universe.
> 
> Volume has picked up recently but still only $178000 worth traded on Friday.
> 
> I just think that eventually trading stocks like this, you will get caught out, any bad news and how will you get out................you won't, a double or nothing gamble i.m.o.
> 
> Also very difficult to put a count on a thinly traded stock as everything looks corrective with overlapping price action.
> 
> Could argue that this is the start of wave 5, but stretching the rules a bit and maybe trying to make a count fit for emotional reasons.




Excellent points on liquidity Porper. 

Its not in my Universe Nizar. 

Incidentally though, i have had thoughts on a penny stock system...i had been thinking of it after i read something about a mechanical system that traded penny stocks.

I think it would make for some interesting discussion.

Nizar, have you thought about a mech system for them?

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

Oh yeh sorry i forgot about your CFD universe, Can.

A mechanical system for penny stocks Iv thought about it myself and I ruled it out because i think it can only be achieved successfully by trading intraday, which is not my cup of tea.

I cant see why you cant include penny stocks in your universe when testing an EOD system though. WMT and BLR are examples of champion penny stocks, that have now become dogs. I guess we can always put a liquidity filter on your universe and see if the results are better with or without it. Another thing to try is a dollar value filter. Maybe.


----------



## nizar

What is everyones thoughts on SWK?

A goer with stop at $1.35 ?


----------



## CanOz

Sorry Nizar 

Not in my universe....I know i might be missing out on allot of opportunities but i selected the CFD list for a reason.

Cheers,


----------



## IFocus

Hi Can

Understand you want to stick with CFD’s but for the future consider not only the leading sector but also where the momentum is within that sector. 

Tech often talks about it but this is where you get your bang for buck and when the bottom end of the market is running that’s the area to be trading. It’s just sticking to where the highest area of probability exists, no need to be clever.

One other thing, this is a bull market be risk seeking long………


Motorway’s commentary is some of the best I have seen but I though this is particularly very good, to many traders anguish over exits that they consider to be to early or to late……..




> Their Primary purpose is another reason to take one trade over another
> We hopefully have more trades to take than funds to take them with
> and If We over diversify We maybe lose focus and retreat to a mkt average
> return...
> 
> As the move unfolds they are ( How ever determined ) a way of judging
> the relative strength of one trade Vs another and provide stop look and listen points ..
> eg In the BPT chart I posted when price reached the vicinity of the downside target. would You automatically close the short ? No.
> But when the climatic stopping action appeared as well ? Yes..
> 
> An active exit frees up funds for another entry with better R/R at that time
> 
> The R/R of an existing position deteriorates as the move progresses
> 
> R/R means defining risk and having some conception of reward
> 
> What is important is time frame and opportunity cost..
> rather than eking out a few last points of profit..





Focus


----------



## IFocus

> What is everyones thoughts on SWK?
> 
> A goer with stop at $1.35 ?




Hi Nizar

Where would your entry be for SWK? 

Where would the ideal entry be for defining support / resistance supply / demand, R/R etc?

Regards
Focus


----------



## R0n1n

ok guys PMP came up on my scan. I have put comments on the chart. I have copied over text from my blog instead of typing it over. 

There was a massive injection of volume and its above its second support line. My concern is that its below its 200 day MA and its still inside its downward channel. Further past volume injection could not get it to break out.


----------



## IFocus

Hi Ron1n

Like your analysis on the chart

A few questions

Are there other examples in the current market (same price structure as PMP) that show good moves?
Can you find 10 that have just happen or about to happen? Think probability

The small flag you high lighted, always important to use patterns in context. Try reading up on flag patterns and where they have the highest probability of success.

There are plenty of examples in the current market see if you can find them.  

Look at the bigger picture is that a head and shoulders forming?

Which way do H&S break to confirm pattern?
What would have to happen for pattern to fail?

Again are there H&S patterns through out the current market firing?

Is PMP the best opportunity that exists currently in the market for an entry?

Hope this helps

Focus


----------



## R0n1n

IFocus, thanx a ton for taking the time in pointing me towards the right direction. 

I am attaching two more examples of Head and shoulder (I hope they are) KIM in March and GWT in march May June and July.

Entry wise this is definitely not the best opportunity out there...

You will have to enlighten me on the below questions.



> Which way do H&S break to confirm pattern?
> What would have to happen for pattern to fail?




Regarding Flags Paterns, I googled up and found this link and a qwick look at stocks, I found UXC which had shown the flag patern in the past. Looking back at PMP it sorts looks like a small flag patern at the end and the bigger patern is head and shoulder. Am I right ? 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu

now the million dollar question.. will I o\put my money on it ??? HMM .... NO. I would wait for it to show the sign of break which according to the site is :



> For a bullish flag or pennant, a break above resistance signals that the previous advance has resumed. Volume should be heavy during the advance or decline that forms the flagpole. Heavy volume provides legitimacy for the sudden and sharp move that creates the flagpole. An expansion of volume on the resistance (support) break lends credence to the validity of the formation and the likelihood of continuation.




Thanx again for showing the way to look at paterns and feel free to correct me where ever I am wrong...


----------



## CanOz

Did someone mention the big picture, heres the weekly.

Cheers,


----------



## CFD

ROn1n, I liked your chart of PMP, keep those descending triangles coming!

You raised an interesting question re 200 day MA. Given that we are looking at short term trading during an up trend, a medium term up trend should do rather than needing a long term up trend. (Read up/down trend) 

Question is how long is a medium term trend ie would a 90 day MA suffice?

Edit: I guess PMP is in a down trend however you look at it. (Pity I still like the look of the last price and volume bars


----------



## CanOz

Its in a downtrend?

Hmmm....to me its at a critical juncture, you've got the weekly chart showing it against the trendline, and a possible H&S pattern to be confirmed....

Then there is that interesting price action...everythings needs confirmation.

Cheers,


----------



## R0n1n

Yeah I think its at a critical juncture... Like Can said.. everything needs confirmation. 

Wonder what Motorway or IFocus or others with a lot more experience would say ?

CFD how about FLX ? it has tried quite a few times to break out and may be this is the time it has ? I guess all it needs is a boost of volume to give it the escape velocity to go blue skies.

.


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Its in a downtrend?




Some may argue that its in a downtrend because its trading below its 200dma.


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Some may argue that its in a downtrend because its trading below its 200dma.




Like ASX G'rilla said on his blog...sometimes you gotta step beck and look at it from a distance.

He was quoting someone else...but you get the idea.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Like ASX G'rilla said on his blog...sometimes you gotta step beck and look at it from a distance.
> 
> He was quoting someone else...but you get the idea.
> 
> Cheers,




He was quoting Ed Seykota, arugably the best trader of all time.

I tend to agree, and i dont use moving averages in my trading (as yet, but may well do once i test it). Notice i said "some" not me


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Like ASX G'rilla said on his blog...sometimes you gotta step beck and look at it from a distance.
> 
> He was quoting someone else...but you get the idea.
> 
> Cheers,




I'm with Can on this one, the long term trend is up.

But it's starting to look a bit shakey, with it currently under the 30week MA, the MA turning downward and the relative strength currently downward as well. There's enough suggesting it may be better to be on the sidelines for the time being.

This will be an interesting one to watch, with it being at the long time trend line, alot of support in general at the $1.70 level (especially on Fri - massive vol but high vol has come in a few other times at this level), and the H&S pattern. Does anyone know how long the H&S pattern remains valid for? ie If another wave takes the sp back up to the $1.95 level it will look more like a trading range to me.


----------



## CFD

nomore4s, just looking for a discussion here so that I may learn.

I asked the question as to how long a trend needs to be for short term trading. (ie to trade with the trend)

You went back 5 years to show an up trend, if you had gone back 3 years you would show a down trend. Perhaps I should have said it was ranging rather than in a down trend, but my original question re ROn1n's 200 day MA remains. 

Is it necessary to follow a 200 MA to trade short term with the trend, or would say a 90 MA suffice?


----------



## nomore4s

CFD said:


> nomore4s, just looking for a discussion here so that I may learn.
> 
> I asked the question as to how long a trend needs to be for short term trading. (ie to trade with the trend)
> 
> You went back 5 years to show an up trend, if you had gone back 3 years you would show a down trend. Perhaps I should have said it was ranging rather than in a down trend, but my original question re ROn1n's 200 day MA remains.
> 
> Is it necessary to follow a 200 MA to trade short term with the trend, or would say a 90 MA suffice?




CFD, I only showed 5 years to get a general overview of the stock, I would say its been in an uptrend since around April 05? Last two or so years?

As for your question I'm definately not the best person to answer it as I don't use MAs for my entries on the daily chart (sometimes for my exits, but very rarely). Maybe one of the more expirenced traders who use MAs might be able to answer your question.
Short term I would say this is in a trading range but it could be looking to break down? Therefore becoming a downtrend? Either way its not a trade I would take until we get some confirmation either way. Just my opinion.


----------



## CFD

I don't use MAs for my entries on the daily chart either. I just don't wish to trade against the trend. 

Just looking to clarify what this trend is for short term trading.


----------



## IFocus

> He was quoting Ed Seykota, arguably the best trader of all time




Ed Seykota also gave the best advice “don’t waste your time learning to trade put your effort into finding some one that can and give them your money” LOL


PMP could turn out to be a ten bagger who knows I was just thinking there are many simpler trends around with less complexity in the price structure. Its only a suggestion everyone has to find their own way

Because I am not that clever I use a 20ma and a 50ma on my charts just so that I know if the trend is up or down. Over the years the distance between the ma’s and distance to price also gives me information plus I guess it’s a comfort factor. Another thing the 20ma gives me is the reminder that price will always return to it like a dog on a leash, remember I am not that clever…….


 I do not use them for entry / exit signals. 


Focus


----------



## motorway

I see lots of good observations going on

An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows

Of a certain magnitude

So on different magnitudes
A stock can be in an uptrend and a trading range
And a downtrend

magnitude has a relation to time frame

BUT.. trends speed up and slow down

PMP on the daily is in a trading range
On The monthly it is in a downtrend
on the weekly it is at a juncture

If you are looking at series of individual bars

Inside bars are ranging
bars with higher highs and lows are trending

a rally is just a series of bars

can look at them as amounts of time or amounts of move

Three Key words

Character, relation of the close to the range and volume ,The position.
Ease, of the movements up and down, durations ( how many bars ).
Change , of behavior where demand and supply emerge and gain control.

High Volume often is a sign of change of behavior
as is change in magnitudes ( a narrow range bar.. a lower high or low )
trends change speed ( angle ) and/or direction..

Com.rel . strength is important how is it changing .. PMP has been weak...

Not much time... atm 

CFD

IS there likely to be a magnitude of useful moves in your time frame ?
IF so then that is enough time..

define and look for trends in those terms
and a whole lot of indicators become 
almost useless

PMP on the daily will be in a uptrend when it makes a higher high and a higher low.

You will Know what the best average to use is only after it happens.
Because you don't know what the speed will be...
The magnitude of move in time
*The angle of trend*...

You define the current trend
You see what the C. rel strength is doing
and then you trade in harmony ..
And when You see a Change of Behavior
You change or get ready to change too.

motorway


----------



## nomore4s

Thanks MW given me plenty to think about again.

Can, OST, SSX, ROC all going well today you get on any of them? SEK going strong today as well, but I know you got on that one.


----------



## nizar

ROC was a buy when it closed above the range at $3.54 sometime last week.
I missed it and didnt chase.


----------



## R0n1n

I got OST and ROC... lets hope they keep moving...


----------



## nizar

R0n1n said:


> I got OST and ROC... lets hope they keep moving...




They both look GREAT to me.
Well done.

OST you bought this mornings open?


----------



## R0n1n

nizar said:


> They both look GREAT to me.
> Well done.
> 
> OST you bought this mornings open?





yep got OST as soon as it opened. One of the few times I broke my rule not to enter till 1/2 hour after market open.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Can,

rocking sek mate rocking sek, what a break out!

I took profits on it but hope you guys have not.

dont take to much into my fib forcast but based on the angle its on now i would suggest a minor retrace on the cards something to 38-50 i hope at most for you guys.

Any way, what I want to say is well done Can for seeing it, acting on it and holding it (if u still are) that is what good trading is about holding your winners no matter what your mind try's to justify u to sell it! so well done.

R0n1n
1/2 an hour after open! sorry but I personally think that's not a grerat way to trade your gambling on market sentiment. I wont take a position on anything in oz market until 15min till close sometimes 1/2 an hour till close. how can u have accurate idea at that time in the day. my personal opinion no offence ment.

Cheers


----------



## nizar

Trade_It said:


> Can,
> 
> rocking sek mate rocking sek, what a break out!
> 
> I took profits on it but hope you guys have not.
> 
> dont take to much into my fib forcast but based on the angle its on now i would suggest a minor retrace on the cards something to 38-50 i hope at most for you guys.
> 
> Any way, what I want to say is well done Can for seeing it, acting on it and holding it (if u still are) that is what good trading is about holding your winners no matter what your mind try's to justify u to sell it! so well done.
> 
> R0n1n
> 1/2 an hour after open! sorry but I personally think that's not a grerat way to trade your gambling on market sentiment. I wont take a position on anything in oz market until 15min till close sometimes 1/2 an hour till close. how can u have accurate idea at that time in the day. my personal opinion no offence ment.
> 
> Cheers




Hi T.I.

Well I am still holding SEK, cant see how/why you would sell this one..

In regards to when to buy, if daytrading speccies its best to buy right before the close or even closing auction. Opening strength is great for selling into.

Now i trade EOD, I buy the open and sell the open. If i pay a bit more it doesnt matter as holding time is typically several weeks or months.


----------



## CanOz

Just a quick reply tonite guys, very busy at work and got a crappy connection tonite...still in SEK, missed out on OST today. If someone, Ron1n, Nizar, TI, NM4s could keep the thread alive until next week or so that would be great....

Thanks again Mway.

Thanks,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

nizar said:


> Hi T.I.
> 
> Well I am still holding SEK, cant see how/why you would sell this one..
> 
> In regards to when to buy, if daytrading speccies its best to buy right before the close or even closing auction. Opening strength is great for selling into.
> 
> Now i trade EOD, I buy the open and sell the open. If i pay a bit more it doesnt matter as holding time is typically several weeks or months.




Totally fine, if it works it works. Yes i was talking about position trading not intra day, more to short term 1-5 days and 1-3 month short term trends. CFD leveraged trading.

I have been caught so many times doing that that now I swear against it, I have also noticed that a lot can change in 3 hours and clear patterns or break outs can lose there appeal around close the xjo fail last Friday is a prime example. At 11 looked the real deal by 3-3.45 was a total fail.

But like I said thats my take on it.


----------



## R0n1n

No probs Can, happy to keep this thread alive and everyone else is welcome to chip in.

So here is ORI. It had formed an ascending triangle and today seems to have broken out of it. Volume is looking positive and RSI is touching 60. So a trend is definitely forming. 
Apologise for the graph as haven't got Amibroker here at work 

your opinion guys. *Would it qualify as a low risk entry ?*


----------



## nomore4s

R0n1n said:


> No probs Can, happy to keep this thread alive and everyone else is welcome to chip in.
> 
> So here is ORI. It had formed an ascending triangle and today seems to have broken out of it. Volume is looking positive and RSI is touching 60. So a trend is definitely forming.
> Apologise for the graph as haven't got Amibroker here at work
> 
> your opinion guys. *Would it qualify as a low risk entry ?*




This one had a pretty strong day Ronin, you get on it? If you caught it early enough it might have been ok, say an entry around $30.50-$31.00 and a stop just under $29? Not really sure if I'd call it low risk though, high probability maybe?


----------



## nomore4s

A little of topic here (sorry Can) but this stock has been mentioned on this thread before, albeit very briefly.

Motorway (and/or others) I'm looking for some feedback on the following chart from CFE.

The day I'm worried about is the bar marked with the 1. Pushed up to 72c but sold back down with increased vol to finish well off the highs for the day. The last 2 days have been pretty weak as well, wide range down days on lowish vol (not much demand, supply having to reach).

What I'm seeing is some distribution above the 70c area - orange box, vol drops off once prices get under 70-72c (alot of resistance forming at 70c). The next rally is the important one for me, if prices fail to make a new high or even get back to the 70-72c area (forming a trading range?) it will be a bad sign especially if a lower low is made after that. Like I stated on the CFE thread I will be exiting my remaining holdings if a lower high is made.

Am still struggling a little with the VSA analysis, find it verying interesting though and has opened my eyes a bit, makes me realise how much I can improve my trading, my entries and exits could be so much better lol


----------



## motorway

nomore4s said:


> A little of topic here (sorry Can) but this stock has been mentioned on this thread before, albeit very briefly.
> 
> Motorway (and/or others) I'm looking for some feedback on the following chart from CFE.
> 
> The day I'm worried about is the bar marked with the 1. Pushed up to 72c but sold back down with increased vol to finish well off the highs for the day. The last 2 days have been pretty weak as well, wide range down days on lowish vol (not much demand, supply having to reach).
> 
> What I'm seeing is some distribution above the 70c area - orange box, vol drops off once prices get under 70-72c (alot of resistance forming at 70c). The next rally is the important one for me, if prices fail to make a new high or even get back to the 70-72c area (forming a trading range?) it will be a bad sign especially if a lower low is made after that. Like I stated on the CFE thread I will be exiting my remaining holdings if a lower high is made.
> 
> Am still struggling a little with the VSA analysis, find it verying interesting though and has opened my eyes a bit, makes me realise how much I can improve my trading, my entries and exits could be so much better lol




Yes 

I have just attempted to answer You twice
Both times when ready to click submit
Some glitch has closed the browser
and all lost 



I will maybe come back later to it



Uptrend met climax
after preliminary supply
led to a lower low
NO longer up trend
struggled to a lower high
means it is now on this time frame in a DOWN trend.
last wave down .. shows increased ease of movement



> Wyckoff Exit Strategies
> 
> In Order of Degree of Desirability
> 
> 
> EXIT STRATEGY # 1
> 
> Take profits, eliminate positions, exit the market upon a climax action in the price objective zone . You cover your position when you see the climax in the price objective zone
> 
> EXIT STRATEGY # 2
> 
> Exit the market when there is repeated evidence that the current trend will not continue, and indeed may reverse.
> 
> Periodically monitor the market, the group and the stock for price and volume clues that warn of trend exhaustion.
> 
> “Act on warnings. Don’t wait for the breaks.”
> 
> EXIT STRATEGY # 3:
> 
> Exit the market automatically upon the hitting of a trailing stop (loss) order…this is the back up strategy.
> 
> From a Hank Pruden article on Wyckoff exit stategies taken from Wyckoff's Course




look at Your chart with these exit perspectives in mind...

It really is a very good example of many principles
worth while taking some time to dissect it..

eg the climatic bar is a "hypodermic" A large range bar at new highs 
 is like the  injection of a stimulant... It is almost guaranteed to generate buying
So the response was very revealing-----> determined selling, which was clearly seen to overcome that buying..



> The study of responses ... is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market."
> - Rollo Tape (Richard Wyckoff), 1908






motorway


----------



## motorway

A chart 

The duration of this down wave has been shorter than the first from the top
but the thrust is greater (the stride , the headway )

As it approaches the lower trend line

The question is , Will We see the thrust shorten ? Some narrower  range bars ?

In a down trend that does gather a following.
The buyers can just go on strike... So the range of the bars is very important
and then esp the response... You What to see a reaction off that line

In the 1929 crash. Initially  many stocks stopped falling because there were no longer ANY buyers...

So It is important to see a reaction OFF a low and not just a stop to the movement down......

motorway


----------



## theasxgorilla

motorway said:


> In the 1929 crash. Initially  many stocks stopped falling because there were no longer ANY buyers...
> 
> So It is important to see a reaction OFF a low and not just a stop to the movement down......




This is what makes VSA so facinating.  When you think about it in the context of orders transacted, orders in the market, and those participants on the sidelines holding shares or with money in their accounts.  What they do and what they don't do etc.

ASX.G


----------



## vert

here is another interesting way to look at this chart

after the initial high in march it retraced to fib 61.8 before starting next leg

next leg up is a 5 wave count and now looks to be in wave c of the corrective move

wave c looks as if it could coincide with the 61.8 retrace and bottom of channel

also this maybe a wave 4 of a larger count but i think wave 4 should not go below wave 1 ( not a full bottle on elliot wave)


----------



## R0n1n

nomore4s said:


> This one had a pretty strong day Ronin, you get on it? If you caught it early enough it might have been ok, say an entry around $30.50-$31.00 and a stop just under $29? Not really sure if I'd call it low risk though, high probability maybe?




Yeah I got in at $30.70. Its been dropping a bit since then.... I am still in the positive, but watching it carefully.


----------



## R0n1n

I have getting stopped out but I had closed my position in MRE on 17th when it broke the support line. Thankfully I had only taken the position with 20% of my planned investment fund. 

Looking at it today I am happy I sold out.


----------



## R0n1n

Hey everyone, here is AIX . Its just touched its resistance line today and has been trying to breach it for the last couple of days. There is steady drop in volume and to me it tell that not many people wanna sell it expecting it to make a move soon.

Now I was wondering is it forming a head and shoulder or a cup and handle patern ?


----------



## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> I'm with Can on this one, the long term trend is up.
> 
> But it's starting to look a bit shakey, with it currently under the 30week MA, the MA turning downward and the relative strength currently downward as well. There's enough suggesting it may be better to be on the sidelines for the time being.
> 
> This will be an interesting one to watch, with it being at the long time trend line, alot of support in general at the $1.70 level (especially on Fri - massive vol but high vol has come in a few other times at this level), and the H&S pattern. Does anyone know how long the H&S pattern remains valid for? ie If another wave takes the sp back up to the $1.95 level it will look more like a trading range to me.




To further our discussion on PMP.

Looks to have respected the long term trend line for the moment.  Has moved away from it on very low vol in the last few days. The high vol bar from Fri the 13th is the interesting one, MW is this a "spring"? As price seem to be moving up with relative ease since then.


----------



## motorway

> . A spring is a penetration below a previous support area which enables one to judge the quality and quantity of  supply on that penetration .............As the stock goes into new low ground one of two things will happen. Either overwhelming supply will come in or no supply. .
> The CRITICAL thing that is shown by the SPRING is the AMOUNT of  SUPPLY that COMES OUT on the DRIVE to NEW LOW GROUND and HOW WELL that SUPPLY IS ABSORBED




Springs are  a possible buy set up
depending on the context

eg is the spring occurring in an uptrend or a downtrend
How much penetration occurred, How much volume
Does the volume suggest that there is still supply at that level ?
Will There be a retest

 A retest on lower volume can be a very good buy point

With PMP I remember having a quick look at the course of sales
Most of that volume seemed to be one transaction

Maybe some one could confirm that ?

Normally I would take that spring
( it penetrates the support from the adjacent low )
As a positive sign.
But
it is in a range
There was significant volume
It did not penetrate very much and did spring right back with a good close
As You say the "subsequent action" suggests there was demand
and some absorption....But the those subsequent bars have very low volume

Do they indicate a lack of demand ? at this stage willing to take this UP
"readiness to move"

What I would want to see is a Sign of Strength



> an ACTION which shows that DEMAND is in control. .. should have GOOD DEMAND on the UP MOVE, a WIDE SPREAD and INCREASING VOLUME on the UPSIDE




This can be one or a few bars
As there been a SOS in this range You have outlined ?

It is the subsequent action that always  confirms..

A spring... some ease of movement.. A sign of strength.. then a last point of support ( higher low ) volume in the rally less in the reaction

IF the volume on that spring was a lot lower it would have suggested no more supply at this level .. the penetration could not entice any sellers to follow .....

With that much volume I would be wary of a retest
The accumulators ( that is the only way that a range can exist )
Would have to think there is still cheap stock around ?

But I qualify that because one unusual trade might be responsible  ?


In any case each bar is a another frame in the story

some Know "who done" it right away.. Some need to see half the film
Some even after the final credits still don't get it..

Look back at SEK it had a very clear SOS 



.............

On AIX.... Have a good look at the CFE chart and comments ??

motorway


----------



## CanOz

Just a quick update. I've been stopped out of MRE. I'm planning on buying TEN today, its been on my watchlist since capitualtion. Try to post more later.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Just a quick update. I've been stopped out of MRE. I'm planning on buying TEN today, its been on my watchlist since capitualtion. Try to post more later.
> 
> Cheers,




Not sure about your universe, but CTS, GOP, MUN, ALD, all look the goods to me.


----------



## vert

PNA looks like a possible breakout

weekly chart shows sp rise back to high on lower volume - no supply

daily shows supply ran out 27/06 

volume increased last 3 days with a nice big white candle yesterday

may test 0.72 for support

im going to buy @0.755 if possible with stop 0.71
any other thoughts?


----------



## nomore4s

motorway said:


> .............
> 
> On AIX.... Have a good look at the CFE chart and comments ??
> 
> motorway




Have only had a quick look don't have much time at the moment, but there looks to be some similiarities between the 2. Both coming off new highs and stalling at a lower high for a number of days (AIX currently at this point), might post more tomorrow after I've had a closer look, if I get time.


----------



## nomore4s

*Can*, did you end up getting on PNA, its run like a champ, don't ever listen to me, lol.

*Porper*, you still in BPT? Looking good, looks to be some resistance at $1.49-$1.50, if it pushes through that it will be looking really good.

*Motorway*, is the last wave up in the orange box a sign of strength? Last 2 days especially look good with closes at the high with good vol, buyers look to be in control atm.


----------



## motorway

nomore4s said:


> *Can*, did you end up getting on PNA, its run like a champ, don't ever listen to me, lol.
> 
> *Porper*, you still in BPT? Looking good, looks to be some resistance at $1.49-$1.50, if it pushes through that it will be looking really good.
> 
> *Motorway*, is the last wave up in the orange box a sign of strength? Last 2 days especially look good with closes at the high with good vol, buyers look to be in control atm.




Yes BPT looks promising
notice there was on a small scale a 
little rally ( automatic ) and retest of the climax low that suggested that there was no longer much supply..


We then get some volume in the rally You have marked
a buying wave that shows some ease of movement

The last BAR has lower Volume
But not that low if You look at what is "normal"
So demand overcame supply and reasonable demand..

A good setup Would be a pullback to around  $1.36 ( $1.36 atm and from this particular bar)
Lowish volume some narrow range bars.

This is only one scenario


A ""last point of support" 
A "springboard" to launch off and get through the overhead resistance

Look How the move down to the climax has already
bought about a change of ownership..

How "Smart" is that Buying know seen to have been
look at the subsequent "response" (porper  )

The SOS has to be confirmed with a LPS ( last point of support )
IF the price moves down on heavy volume and retraces
most of the SOS.. Then the SOS is unconfirmed...

All You have to have is enough confirmation For YOUR purpose
have a logical stop that would in this case negate the bullish definition
And have some view of the possible reward.. ( How much accumulation can We see as We look backwards ? )

On a slightly larger scale 
This action is also just a 
A higher low in the uptrend that started
on the 14/03 We want to see a higher higher on that time/magnitude scale

magnitudes and time frames !



You were looking at PMP
Did you see the retest of the spring 
I suggested You look out for ?

How aggressive Do you want to be ?
Someone bought it ...

A spring with high volume
Then a retest  produces another spring
But on lower volume even though it penetrated to larger degree..

No supply confirmed ?

test response/test response

What Do You want to see in PMP
as a confirming response ?

A SOS .

MRE ? 
Shows how You can get out of step on a bulge
Last BAR shows  demand .

But You want to see enough confirmation to
support a bullish or bearish definition
And When You see  enough, act.

What builds a bullish definition ?

SOS,LPS, springs, 
ease of movement in the buying waves which 
have some volume participating..
secondary tests on lower and lower volume..

And "JUMPS" through resistance
That either keep going or successfully "back up'')

Dependant on particular circumstances and how much Accumulation
precedes

etc etc etc...


As long  as a bullish definition continues to be confirmed
Stay long.

bearish ? Stay short

neutral ? Better opportunities elsewhere
But on the watch list waiting developments

Keep in harmony with the mkt
look for strength and weakness

esp in the counter waves/trends..


motorway


----------



## CanOz

Heres a quick update on the portfolio. We got stopped out of MRE for a loss of $743.00

Havn't had much time to buy anymore...but thats life.

Cheers,


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

CanOz said:


> Heres a quick update on the portfolio. We got stopped out of MRE for a loss of $743.00
> 
> Havn't had much time to buy anymore...but thats life.
> 
> Cheers,




That's a chunky loss Can.

What was the rationale for taking TEN as a long trade? Is that low risk do you think?


----------



## Porper

nomore4s said:


> *Can*,
> *Porper*, you still in BPT? Looking good, looks to be some resistance at $1.49-$1.50, if it pushes through that it will be looking really good.




nomore,

Not in BPT, I only day traded it, not really what I do but seemed a good idea at the time 

I would say there is tremendous resistence at 1.50, not only because of the obvious but also there are plenty of time cycle ratios and price projections around that area.

If it does manage to barge through 1.50, that price area will be a great support for the next leg higher.No trade now though i.m.o.


----------



## happytrader

Hi Cannaussieuk

I know bank stocks are not particularly inspiring and you are unlikely to ever experience the excitement of watching the share price move 10% either up or down in a day let alone 50% .However, therein lies the useful thing about them. With the use of leverage a 40c move can result in a quick 30% gain depending on which one you trade. Naturally, you would have to study the price action on all time frames to be effective.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## Porper

happytrader said:


> Hi Cannaussieuk
> 
> I know bank stocks are not particularly inspiring and you are unlikely to ever experience the excitement of watching the share price move 10% either up or down in a day let alone 50% .However, therein lies the useful thing about them. With the use of leverage a 40c move can result in a quick 30% gain depending on which one you trade. Naturally, you would have to study the price action on all time frames to be effective.
> 
> Cheers
> Happytrader




I think that is a very good point.

Most people think speculative shares will outperform in a bull market, but forget that with tight stops and especially using CFD'S you can take a large position in a company where a smallish % gain equates to a large profit.

I have been going down this path for a while now.

I sleep better knowing I have a large posiyion in a blue chip co. than having a small position in a co. like GDN knowing it could turn nasty before you can get out.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Porper said:


> I think that is a very good point.
> 
> Most people think speculative shares will outperform in a bull market, but forget that with tight stops and especially using CFD'S you can take a large position in a company where a smallish % gain equates to a large profit.
> 
> I have been going down this path for a while now.
> 
> I sleep better knowing I have a large posiyion in a blue chip co. than having a small position in a co. like GDN knowing it could turn nasty before you can get out.




Smart talking guys. I agree solely with the bigger boys and THEIR liquidity.


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> Heres a quick update on the portfolio. We got stopped out of MRE for a loss of $743.00
> 
> Havn't had much time to buy anymore...but thats life.
> 
> Cheers,




Hi Can,

What happened to SEK?

ROC looking like a good entry close to what should be a support level ($3.50) for those that missed the first run (like me )


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Hi Can,
> 
> What happened to SEK?
> 
> ROC looking like a good entry close to what should be a support level ($3.50) for those that missed the first run (like me )




Quick post before i head out the door...

TEN i picked up after i had it on my watch list for the volume bubble. I liked the price action and the confluence from my friend in Noosa.

SEK was one that i picked up for my personal portfolio.

Agree on the banks too, plus a few more so called 'blue chips', but if your going to trade large postions using CFD's  and tight stops for short quick results, then it requires a totally different trading plan. My time frame here is a few weeks to months depending on how well the trailing stop holds once its applied.

I would be very interested in seeing another thread for a descretionary system for these quick scalp style plays. Happy why don't you start one, even if its a paper system for now, adds a totally new dimension to things i reckon. As it is at the moment i've got more time for reading the odd post than posting.

Cheers,


----------



## nomore4s

Can, how is the portfolio looking after last week?


----------



## nomore4s

More to our discussion on BPT.

After the last wave up (orange box) we've had the market move down strongly and BPT has followed with a wave down as well, which MW suggested might happen, but on slightly higher vol and wider range days then what we probably wanted to see.
Looks to have found support at around $1.33(last point of support?), but after yesterdays bar todays action was not very convincing. Will now be looking for a spring? And a wave up through resistance at $1.44 & maybe $1.50, but my best guess is that it will stall at resistance at $1.50 with a small wave back down to $1.44ish before a serious assult at the $1.50 barrier but that is purely a guess and a best case scenario.

Alot will depend on the overall market of course. I probably won't take a position because of the current market (waiting for it to play out - have closed most of my positions out) but if I was I would be looking for a bullish day (close at the high with okay vol) to confirm the next wave up and set the stop at $1.24 or for a tight stop $1.28

Will be watching this with interest to see what happens.


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## nomore4s

nomore4s said:


> More to our discussion on BPT.
> 
> After the last wave up (orange box) we've had the market move down strongly and BPT has followed with a wave down as well, which MW suggested might happen, but on slightly higher vol and wider range days then what we probably wanted to see.
> Looks to have found support at around $1.33(last point of support?), but after yesterdays bar todays action was not very convincing. Will now be looking for a spring? And a wave up through resistance at $1.44 & maybe $1.50, but my best guess is that it will stall at resistance at $1.50 with a small wave back down to $1.44ish before a serious assult at the $1.50 barrier but that is purely a guess and a best case scenario.
> 
> Alot will depend on the overall market of course. I probably won't take a position because of the current market (waiting for it to play out - have closed most of my positions out) but if I was I would be looking for a bullish day (close at the high with okay vol) to confirm the next wave up and set the stop at $1.24 or for a tight stop $1.28
> 
> Will be watching this with interest to see what happens.




Well, BPT has been absolutely smashed in the last few weeks. It seems a few of the oilers have copped a hiding lately (even in the context of the overall market getting smashed), ROC, OSH, AED it's a bit surprising as they were all going strong only a few weeks ago. RSI looks very poor on all of them.


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## CanOz

Sorry for the lack of update folks, been a busy week. We've got stopped out of TEN, but we're still in two trades. We've been standing aside, but now might be a good time to suggest some shorts that we can enter after this market retraces a bit. Any suggestions?

Cheers,


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## R0n1n

Can donno about short ones, but I have been keeping an eye on a few that are currently consolidating. Here is MGW, I have marked the support and resistance lines.

The caution point is its been doing a lower high on the monthly chart so it may not do a big run. The good thing is, the support line is good and has held the SP up two times, so we can use it as a Stop Loss trigger.


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## CanOz

That spike is a bit concerning, looks like it could have been a test for short positions..filled one of the gaps anyway. Its good for the watchlist Ron.

Cheers,


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