# Simple profitable strategy with 3 indicators: +11% profit on Gold 29-31 October



## erik59 (4 November 2014)

Hello All

This is a simple strategy i would like to share. Its a trend following strategy based on Bill Williams profitunity system. BW developped the chaos trading approach of trading.

This how i trade it:
3 indicators:
- Awesome oscillator on MT4 (i used a different version developped by a friend)
- Alligator on MT4
- Fractals box (indicator made in using the fractals also on MT4)

TF: It could be any from M1 to D1, but we look at the TH 4-5X time higher for direction for example, i like to trade H1 i checking H4 for direction (i look also at D1 for overall picture)

Basic rules:

Entry: 
We take the break out of a fractal box when alligator is sleeping or starting to opening.
SL is at the other side of the fractal box (box must be tight, i e inf to 40 pips por H1) in order to spot 1-2 (Wave 1 followed by Wave 2 - ref: Elliott Waves)
AO must be close to the Zero Line.
Entry must be as 4X higher TM has an alligator open (trendy)

Exit:
If price goes vs us, exit just above the candle who triggered the order or if the setup looks good, other side of the fractal box
If price goes with us, we use the lines of the alligator (green if there is divergence between price and AO, red if there is not) but the best exit is when price breaks the other side of the fractal box)
Of course, exit depends of how the 4X time chart looks like.
I use sometime fibonacci numbers
I tend to bring SL to entry level when price moved +1% and i usually protect 30-45% of my profit when price made>+1% profit.

To be successful, you need to be familiar with Elliott waves analysis but the AO does help you for that

Here is an example on gold last week 29-31 October H1

Its downtrend on the daily chart and we expect wave 5, on H4 the direction is south also. We take the break of a lovely double lower H1-H4 level of the fractal box. We have no exit signal but we exit always before the end of the week, for +550 pips




Video of the trades



Thanks for your attention and happy trading


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## skyQuake (4 November 2014)

Have you tested it for any other dates? 2 days of panic selling is hardly a regular occurrence (yet!)


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## erik59 (14 November 2014)

skyQuake said:


> Have you tested it for any other dates? 2 days of panic selling is hardly a regular occurrence (yet!)




Hello i dont test it, i apply it everyday
I dont mind about rumours, news, etc (NFP, FOMC a part) , i just read what my charts are telling me

I have many other trades in my blog

Cheers


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## erik59 (14 November 2014)

Hello

Trade of the week: Good +120 pip profit (+4%) trade on USD/CAD H1 on 3-5 November 2014
For more details, click "Examples of Trade" in the menu

On H4, its an uptrend with alligator open, we had a first break of the fractal box on H1 and after a retrace we take this second break. The price flies and is always above the red line, we exit when the candle crosses the green line after the 3rd divergence (not before as the H4 ewave was still close to the zero line and was peaking)

Video of the trade




Cheers


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## minwa (15 November 2014)

Do you use myfxbook or something similar ?

I went through a few months on your blog, you make 20%+ almost every month with no losing trades at all. With compounding you should be up 600% on your account for the year so far ?


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## erik59 (21 November 2014)

minwa said:


> Do you use myfxbook or something similar ?
> 
> I went through a few months on your blog, you make 20%+ almost every month with no losing trades at all. With compounding you should be up 600% on your account for the year so far ?




Hello, on my blog, I post the trade of the week, its not a journal, of course i have losing trades.

Cheers


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## erik59 (21 November 2014)

Hello

Trade of the week 2: EUR/JPY H1: 13-14 November: +134 pips (+4%)

On H4, the alligator is opening and the ewave is starting to peak. We take the second break out of the fractal box on H1 (on the first break, the risk is too high with a SL at more than 60 pips), the initial stop loss is below the green line as we are in an investing mode (32 pips), the price goes up slowly but surely and we exit on Friday afternoon, we have a perfect exit when the prices reaches the monthly highest for +134 pips.




Video of the trade



Cheers


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## erik59 (28 November 2014)

Hello

Trade of the week : EUR/USD H1: 21th of November: +135 pips (+3.5%)


This one is a contre-trend trade. On H4, its downtrend and we expect the wave 5, on the 19th we do have a BDC indicating a possible change of H4 direction, so we look at a setup on H1; We have a perfect one on the Friday London Open with a lovely inferior level of the fractal box. We take the break and the price dropes, we have a perfect exit at the bottom of the D1 box for +135 pips.




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (13 December 2014)

Hello

Trade of the last Week: EUR/USD H1: 2-4 December: Amazing +10% (+140 pips)


This is downtrend on the daily chart, on H4, we have a sleeping alligator  and the fractal box is big so the price has space to move. The 2nd of Decembre at Francfort Open, we have a H1 setup with a sleeping alligator and a very tight box, we take the break and the price moves down harmoniously, we exit 2 days later when the price breaks the upper level of the fractal box for +140 pips, an amazing +10% profit trade.




Video of the Trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (19 December 2014)

Hello

Trade of the Week: XAU/USD H1: 9-10 December: +200 pips (+3.5%)


On H4, we have a perfect setup with a sleeping alligator and an Ewave about to cross the zero line, we look for an entry on H1. On H4, we missed the first break of the fractal box during the night and the second break before Francfort Open. We take the third break as the price did not go far and our initial stop loss is below the green line because we are in an investing mode (Risk: 60 pips). The prices flies and we exit at the candle who closes below the green line after the divergence for 200 pips (+3.5% Profit).




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (10 January 2015)

Hello and HNY


Trade of the Week: GBP/USD H1: 2 - 7 January: +19.5% Profit (+390 pips)


A monster campaign on Cable: It starts on the first day of the year of trading at Francfort Open: On H4, the ewave is about to cross the zero line and the alligator is sleeping, the price broke the level but did not go. On H1, we have 6 candles with the same low and a very tight box! We put a pending order below those 6 candles and the price drops, the price makes 200 pips and we let it run (you could exit before the end of the session for +10% profit), we exit for +290 pips the 5th of January, that was our first entry. 2nd entry the 6th of January also at FO, the price has retraced and we have a very tight box, we take the break and the price drops again, we exit the 7th while the price broke the opposide side of the fractal box. We have +14.5% profit for the first entry (+290 pips) and +5% profit for the seconde entry (+100 pips)! What an amazing way to start the year!




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (23 January 2015)

Hello,

Trade of the week: USD/JPY H1: 13 January: +2.5% Profit (+112 pips)

On the 13th of January, the H4 alligator is open, we have also an inside bar. We look for a setup on H1, there we have a sleeping alligator and a tight box . We place the pending order below the box. The price drops and we exit when it break the box in the opposite side for +112 pips (+2.5%)




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (30 January 2015)

Hello

Trade of the Week: XAU/USD H1: 20-21 January: +2.75% Profit (+164 pips)


On the 20th of January, the H4 alligator is open, it is an uptrend. We look for a setup on H1, there we have a sleeping alligator and a tight box . We place the pending order above the box. The price breaks the box and moves up and we exit when it break the box in the opposite side for +164 pips (+2.75%)




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## tech/a (1 February 2015)

Cherry picking hind site trading video.

Put one up from the entry to exit realtime tick by tick.
Other than that anyone can put up a  " Trade of The Week "

Fell asleep listening to the presenter pep iit up --- bring on some enthusiasm!


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## erik59 (6 February 2015)

Hello

Trade of the Week: USD/CHF H1: 26-27 January: +2.5% Profit (+170 pips)


On the 26th, the trend is up on H1, we have the ewave close to the zero line, there is a small divergence but this is London open and on H4, the ewave is starting to peak with a price outside the box, we take the H1 break, the price flies and we exit when it breaks the box in the opposite side for +2.5% Profit (=170 pips)




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (22 February 2015)

Hello


Trade of the Week: USD/JPY H1: 10 - 12 February: +4.5% Profit (+140 pips)


The classical ones, the best ones: On Tuesday 10th at Francfort Open, we have a clear direction on H4, the alligator is wide open to the north, it is uptrend. On H1, we have a sleeping alligator inside a tight fractal box. We take the break, the price moves harmoniously and we exit the 12th at the break of the lower level of the box for +140 pips (+4.5% Profit)




Video of the trade:




Cheers


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## erik59 (7 March 2015)

Hello

Trade of the week: USD/JPY H1 on the 26-27 february: +2.5% PROFIT (+120 pips)

We knew D1 was  downtrend, on H4 we have a nice sleeping alligator, on H1 same, we have a sleeping alligator & the Ewave is about to cross the zero line (always a strong signal), we take the H4 break and the price drops before the news. The news are poor for the USD but the price keeps falling and we exit the next morning when price breaks the opposite side of the fractal box for +120 pips (+2.5%)




Video of the trade:




Cheers


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## erik59 (13 March 2015)

Hello

Trade of the Week: GBP/USD H1: 6th March: +5.5% Profit (+110 pips)


On D1, H4 & H1, this is downtrend, on H1 we have a very tight fractal box and the ewave is about to cross the zero line. We take the break, and the price falls. This is the NFP release news so we sell half of our position (+2% / 2 = +1%) before the news and let our trade runs. Following the news, the price goes in our way (as often, price goes in the main trend direction) and we exit few hours before the end of the week for +9% / 2 = +4.5%; the total profit is +5.5%.  Great quick trade.




Video of the trade:



Cheers


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## erik59 (20 March 2015)

Hello

Trade of the Week: EUR/JPY H1: 10-12 March: +6% Profit (+306 pips)


This another classical trade. It is a clear downtrend on D1 & H4, we have a nice setup on H1 with a relatively tight fractal box and an Ewave cross of zero line, we take the break and the price drops nicely and we exit 2 days later while the price crosses the fractal box in the opposite side for +306 pips = +6% profit!




Video of the trade:




Cheers


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## lindsayf (21 March 2015)

This threadIt gives the reader NO information about edge or expectancy as all the trades are just cherry picked in retrospect.
What about the trades in between those shown.
What does the real equity curve look like?


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## erik59 (27 March 2015)

lindsayf said:


> This threadIt gives the reader NO information about edge or expectancy as all the trades are just cherry picked in retrospect.
> What about the trades in between those shown.
> What does the real equity curve look like?




This is not a journal, just sharing here a simple strategy based on Bill Williams work, for equity curves go back please to BW success story. 
Cherry pick, no, learn the indicators, their role, and to spot setups, 

Its easy to critic, many people just want smtg magic so they dont need to learn, signals in real time etc...

Sorry it does not work like this


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## erik59 (27 March 2015)

Hello

Trade of the Week: USD/CHF H1:  10-12 March +8.5% Profit (+337 pips)

This is a great campaign on USD/CHF, on the 18th (FOMC report day) at Francfort open, I have a tight fractal box and the ewave is about to cross the zero line, this is a H1 setup. I check on H4, the ewave is also on the way to cross the zero line (and H1 pending order is below the H4 red line, price has some space to move to reach the H4 limit as well), therefore this is a double H1/H4 cross of the zero line! I take the H1 break, the price drops slowly forming a new sell fractal, I take a second entry below that fractal (this is also a double break H1/H4) with a stop loss above the red line at 45 pips as we are in an investing mode, the price drops. Before the FOMC report (like NOFP news), my strategy is to sell half of my position to reduce the risk, then the news came and go in my way, cool. I exit above that huge BDC for a total profit of +8.5% (+5.5% and +3%) and +337 pips (+187 and +150).
N.B. I could have taken my profit (or half of them) when the prices has reached the D1 red line.D1 alligator lines are excellent SL and TP.




Video of the Trade:




Cheers


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## minwa (29 March 2015)

erik59 said:


> for equity curves go back please to BW success story.




OK I am going to sell a service/run a fund. I use Buffet's method. Please check how Buffet has performed to see what your equity curve will be like when you invest with me. 



erik59 said:


> for equity curves go back please to BW success story.
> Cherry pick, no,




Cherry pick. yes. You even titled it "trade of the week". Put ALL your trades generated by your signal every week then no one will call it cherry pick. Use Myfxbook or similar, its free and no one will argue you faked it.



erik59 said:


> learn the indicators




Learning lagging indicators without the underlying price context is useless. When words are used like "amazing strategy" "xx pips gained" "xx% gained" with absolutely no mention of risk taken to achieve it really shows.


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## tech/a (30 March 2015)

Agree 100% Minwa

This will only fool those it's designed to fool.
Newbies.

You'll also note that he picks his buy and sell 
At the top of entry and exit bars.
Can't be done in realtime you heed a bar to close to be sure a signal has been triggered

A common newbie error.

Post in realtime not a week later


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## erik59 (4 April 2015)

tech/a said:


> Agree 100% Minwa
> 
> This will only fool those it's designed to fool.
> Newbies.
> ...




1 °You guys want someone to call you live the trades, i do this in the chatroom not here, 

2 ° "Can't be done in realtime you heed a bar to close to be sure a signal has been triggered" no i have a pending order when its triggered, its triggered

3 ° When i found the chaos trading, i first read all the threads and posts about it, i did not care about if it was live or not, a past trade or not, I wanted to learn, what is the setup, how the indicators mean, what is the global philosophy etc... On his videos, Bill Williams and his daughter Justine explained trades took in the past, right? but trades they took, so you can say aalso, yes this is cherry picking, 

4 ° Peter Crowns posted in some forums his DIBS method, Day Inside Bars Strategy and it had also the same poor comments, it is a successful method and very simple, then he got fed up and left the building

5 ° I wanted to share a good strategy, i will do it only on my blog (where you can see also my losing trades btw) , people dont want to learn, are critical and bitter

happy trading and so long!


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## tech/a (4 April 2015)

You get you confirmation bar ----- you post the trade.

I do it 
Why can't you?


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## minwa (4 April 2015)

erik59 said:


> 5 ° I wanted to share a good strategy, i will do it only on my blog (where you can see also my losing trades btw) , people dont want to learn, are critical and bitter




I looked through Jan, Feb, Mar. There are no losing trades on your blog (which contains at least 5 third party advertisement). 

And yes, people do NOT want to learn some "amazing" combination of indicators with absolutely no mention of risk & money management. 

Oh and theres a chatroom ? Where do I put my credit card details ?


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## AverageJoe (20 June 2015)

I must look up them indicators! Is that a demo trading account?


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## sinner (23 June 2015)

> I looked through Jan, Feb, Mar. There are no losing trades on your blog (which contains at least 5 third party advertisement).




As he said, the blog is just posts of his "trade of the week" not every trade.

There is nothing magic about the Profitunity indicators, and in fact Bill Williams has largely moved on to different techniques. That is not to say the indicators can't be used in technical trading though.

* Awesome Oscillator: It's simply a 5,35 oscillator of the median price.


```
MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH+LOW)/2 
AO = SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 5)-SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 34)
```

* Fractals: It's simply a 5 day high, i.e. a higher daily high with two lower highs on each side.


```
Fractal Technical Indicator it is a series of at least five successive bars, with the highest HIGH in the middle, and two lower HIGHs on both sides. The reversing set is a series of at least five successive bars, with the lowest LOW in the middle, and two higher LOWs on both sides, which correlates to the sell fractal.
```

* Alligator Oscillator: It's simply a measure of trend volatility (like ADX, TSI, etc) based on the BW forward shifted MAs.


```
The blue line (Alligator’s Jaw) is the Balance Line for the timeframe that was used to build the chart (13-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved into the future by 8 bars);

    The red line (Alligator’s Teeth) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe of one level lower (8-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 5 bars into the future);

    The green line (Alligator’s Lips) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe, one more level lower (5-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 3 bars into the future).
```

From this you can see erik is implementing a moderately sane strategy (basically, trying to catch the first breakout in a trend where that trend is supported by a higher timeframe trend):



> Entry:
> We take the break out of a fractal box when alligator is sleeping or starting to opening.
> SL is at the other side of the fractal box (box must be tight, i e inf to 40 pips por H1) in order to spot 1-2 (Wave 1 followed by Wave 2 - ref: Elliott Waves)
> AO must be close to the Zero Line.
> ...




I used to trade FX using the same indicators and it was one of the first methods I tried that provided me with decent results.

How can you guys expect o build a community on this forum with your attitude.


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## Trembling Hand (23 June 2015)

sinner said:


> How can you guys expect to build a community on this forum with your attitude.




I guess most people have moved on from the idea that a snap shot of anything is useful and want more like what Peter is doing in Pavs old thread, application. I think anyone who has been in the game long enough is sick to death of claims of an edge to be learnt in a threads like "Simple profitable strategy with 3 indicators: +11% profit on Gold 29-31 October"

Maybe unjustly harsh but if it looks like a turd from the outside you expect it to be a turd when you bite into it.


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## tech/a (26 June 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> Maybe unjustly harsh but if it looks like a turd from the outside you expect it to be a turd when you bite into it.




Great just while I'm having lunch!---chevapchichi's


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