# APX - Appen Limited



## System (7 January 2015)

Appen is a language technology and data solutions provider that has a services capability in more than 140  languages and dialects. Appen offers large scale training data, linguistic models and consulting services to assist leading technology companies and government agencies in the development of internet and mobile connected products including:

search relevance optimisation;
speech recognition or speech synthesisers; and
security and intelligence.
http://www.appen.com


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## fanger (1 March 2017)

Does anyone own this? I thought it reported well but the market didn't like it.


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## skc (2 March 2017)

fanger said:


> Does anyone own this? I thought it reported well but the market didn't like it.




Yes I hold some of these. 

Yes I agree that the report seems to be on par with most expectations. I think the market didn't like it because of the deterioration in margin (as flagged). Even though the demand for it's service is growing, the decrease in margin potentially signal more competition - and so makes one wonder if APX has a strong enough moat to defend its market share and sustain the growth required to justify it's relatively high PE. Mind you it hasn't been smashed or anything (it's no ISD or ACX) - it's simply still trading within the range in the last 6 month.

There's a macro theme of de-rating high-PE stock and APX has had it's run last year when the small cap growth stocks were the darlings of the market. They are now coming back a few notches as a cohert.

At $2.50-2.60, APX trades on ~22x PE. This isn't a very high number for a company targeting mid-high-teen growth. APX's main business is still relatively new to the market - so it might take some more time for the market to fully accept that it has truely sustainable growth. There's also the annual contract renewal risk that won't go away until April. 

The founder/directors were selling in bunches (at prices well below current price) earlier and that took me a huge amount of conviction (or perhaps ignorance) to hold through that. Thankfully that has now abated but I'd keep a close eye on that.

So in a nutshell. I don't think there's too much to be alarmed about. The long term competitive dynamics will need to be monitored (or perhaps more actively researched by looking at competitors, client announcements etc). The market valuation will rise and fall... and perhaps unloading some positions when it rises >30x would have been prudent.


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## herzy (4 March 2017)

How do you value something like this SKC? I find it very difficult to separate crap from gold in tech stuff. It sounds a bit like you're looking more at growth and metrics rather than a belief in the underlying technology?


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## Caveman 28 (30 November 2017)

fanger said:


> Does anyone own this? I thought it reported well but the market didn't like it.



I do!  and bought and sold a number of times as "day trades".  Went up over 25% today and so glad I had a few.


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## fanger (30 November 2017)

Couldn't be happier bought in the high 2's and haven't looked back.


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## qldfrog (5 December 2017)

anyone having problem to bpay for the SPP received today??


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## fanger (5 December 2017)

qldfrog said:


> anyone having problem to bpay for the SPP received today??




I didn't get my one today.
Quick question, what price is the SPP offered at?


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## qldfrog (6 December 2017)

ok working today, i participated; offer is at lower of *$5.80* or 2% discount weighted average etc.....


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## fanger (7 December 2017)

qldfrog said:


> anyone having problem to bpay for the SPP received today??




I didn't have an issue with Bpay


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## Caveman 28 (7 December 2017)

fanger said:


> I didn't have an issue with Bpay



me either


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## qldfrog (7 December 2017)

seems i was too early the biller id was different and did not accept any fund when i first tried (and sent my first email); the day after, all was good...
so all sorted out


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## fanger (22 December 2017)

wow I managed to get a whole 61 shares in the SPP. I wonder how long its going to take to get the rest of my money back off them.


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## Caveman 28 (22 December 2017)

I got 46!


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## qldfrog (22 December 2017)

229 when asking for $15k....if I remember well; got money back already


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## Caveman 28 (23 December 2017)

I got 46 shares for $3K  and money has been refunded.  Better than a poke in the eye.


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## fanger (24 December 2017)

qldfrog said:


> 229 when asking for $15k....if I remember well; got money back already




I had the money deposited back into my account on the 23rd. Most other times I've gone into a SPP I've had a cheque sent back to me for the remainder of the money not used which is a pain in the arse. I have to give credit to APX for the speedy return of my funds.


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## greggles (21 February 2018)

There's not many stocks out there like Appen Limited. It has consistently outperformed over the last three years and in that time its share price has increased from around 50c to $10.55, which it closed at today after releasing its Full Year 2017 results.

Here are the details:

• Total revenue of $166.6M up 50% or 55% in constant currency
• Underlying EBITDA of $28.1M up 62%, statutory EBITDA of $22.2M up 29%
• Underlying NPAT of $19.7M up 86%, statutory NPAT of $14.3M up 36%
• Underlying EBITDA margin improvement from 15.6% in 2016 to 16.9% in 2017
• Strong cash conversion (75% of EBITDA)
• Full year underlying EBITDA for the financial year 2018, ending December 31st 2018, is currently forecast in the range of $50M-$55M (at A$1 = US$0.80)

The relentless high revenue growth continues unabated.

Here's the three year chart:







A dream stock. Has anyone out there ridden this one all the way up?


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## Caveman 28 (21 February 2018)

greggles said:


> There's not many stocks out there like Appen Limited. It has consistently outperformed over the last three years and in that time its share price has increased from around 50c to $10.55, which it closed at today after releasing its Full Year 2017 results.
> 
> Here are the details:
> 
> ...




I have ridden it for the past 7 months.


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## fanger (23 February 2018)

Caveman 28 said:


> I have ridden it for the past 7 months.




What a ride it has been, I wish all my stocks could preform like this!


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## peter2 (2 May 2018)

APX has certainly been one of the best performers in the ASX since it was listed. 
I worry about how much higher can it go, but traders shouldn't worry about that. 
There's an interesting BO-NH setup on the daily chart.


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## leyy (1 June 2018)

Anyone still following Appen? I have been quietly holding and accumulating this stock.

Artificial Intelligence seems to be one of those high growth sectors of the future for tech companies such as google, amazon, apple etc. Most of these major companies being clients of Appen. You can see it already how AI will be disrupting almost every sector with products like Amazon's Alexa, Google home, voice recognition on all smart phones and vehicles. Apartments, Hotels and houses are increasingly been configured to work with voice recognition and control.

Only problem with these super high growth stocks is that if they don't meet guidance or analyst expectations, expect the stock to be hammered. Current guidance for FY18 is the upper end of $50-$55M EBITDA, analyst consensus analyst estimates are $54M. EBITDA margins continue to improve and the majority of their revenue is in USD, as it stands the currency fluctuations are in favour of Appen as their guidance was based on 1 AUD = 0.80 USD cents.


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## leyy (4 June 2018)

The Non-executive Chairman Christopher Vonwiller has sold 2 million shares about 15% of his holdings this week for personal reasons/philanthropic endeavours. However he still remains the company's largest shareholder (10.4% of outstanding stock) and intends to remain a committed long-term shareholder.

need to closely monitor this to ensure that the sell-down was in good faith. I've tightened my stop losses to $9.50.


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## leyy (28 August 2018)

Appen reported its first half year results for FY18, very good results with some huge growth numbers.

Only real concerns are its Language Resources division which saw only 4% revenue growth and a decrease of 4.1M EBITDA from 7.5M to 3.4M (-55%) otherwise APX would have shot through the roof.
Language Resources margins were down due to a change in the mix of work in this period. The division completed less complex government work and more projects in the high-growth technology sector. This is seen as a timing issue, not structural. However, Appen is investing to win increased share in the technology sector with a view to margin improvement over time.

Although this was offset by huge growth in Content Relevance with an increase of 146% in revenue and margins increased to 21.7%

Overall I continue to hold a very large position and will continue to hold as there is a lot of upside growth here for scalability and productivity as they integrate Leapforce into Appen and are in the process of implementing all of Appen’s customer-facing projects on Leapforce’s scalable crowd-management platform, now called Appen Connect which is due to be launched in the first quarter of next year.

YTD revenue plus orders in hand for delivery in 2018 ~$250m at end July 2018 Note that more purchase orders are expected to be received in 2H 2018 vs. prior corresponding periods, due to new customers with more frequent purchase order cycles. The Company’s full year underlying EBITDA for the year ending Dec 31st 2018 is currently forecast to be in the range $54m - $59m (at A$1 = US$0.80)


Summary of the highlights below:


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## leyy (25 February 2019)

Another cracker result by Appen today for its full year 2018 results.

Materially ahead of EBITDA guidance of $54 - 59M. Reported underlying EBITDA was $71.3M (circa 26% higher than guidance).

Outlook for FY19 is $85 - $90M after its $6M investment in engineering team (hired a new CTO) which is circa 20-25% EBITDA growth probably on the conservative side.

It's currently a 5-bagger for me, with real potential for a 10-bagger 

Summary of the results below;
Every industry points to Automation, AI, Deep learning and Appen is in the heart of it.


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## Zaxon (25 February 2019)

leyy said:


> Anyone still following Appen? I have been quietly holding and accumulating this stock.




Me too.  We had the single largest increase out of the whole ASX 200 today, so I read.


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## Zaxon (11 March 2019)




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## leyy (12 March 2019)

*APPEN TO ACQUIRE FIGURE EIGHT AND LAUNCH CAPITAL RAISING*

A summary of the acquisition and key slides from the investor presentation below:

Only key concern is that it is not immediately EBITDA positive, it is still loss making until H2FY20.

Some huge customers Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft, eBay, Linkedin, Amex, Yahoo, Facebook and Twitter.

Initial review of the acquisition is positive.

Let's see how the market reacts.


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## Zaxon (12 March 2019)

leyy said:


> *APPEN TO ACQUIRE FIGURE EIGHT AND LAUNCH CAPITAL RAISING*
> 
> Only key concern is that it is not immediately EBITDA positive, it is still loss making until H2FY20.




In the long run, automating some of what now are now manual processes will be great, and that's what the acquisition of Figure Eight brings.  However, FE doesn't make a profit.  So we're paying good money for a company who's losing money.  Plus, there's two capital raisings to achieve this. The first and biggest, our shareholders don't have access to.  So a dilution in shares, which drops our EPS even more.

It could be a very bumpy ride.  Hopefully, worth it in the long run.


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## Zaxon (12 March 2019)




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## bigdog (31 May 2019)

*



*

Motley reported:
*Appen share price swings on updated profit guidance*

Tom Richardson | May 31, 2019 | *More on: * *APX*

Machine learning business *Appen Ltd* (ASX: APX) this morning told investors to expect EBITDA between $85 million to $90 million for the year ending December 31 2019 using a USD/ AUD exchange rate of 74 cents.

The group also reported that its latest giant acquisition in *Figure Eight* is performing to expectation and that revenue to mid-May 2019 including Figure Eight’s contribution came in at around $270 million. By comparison Appen posted EBITDA of $71.3 million on revenue of $364.3 million for the whole of financial year 2018.

In March 2019 it raised around $300 million from institutional and retail investors via the issue of new shares at $21.50 each.

Appen’s chairman also told investors today that diversity of revenue sources remains a priority area for the business to develop. The shares have swung wildly between a low of $25.47 and record high of $29.70 in response to today’s news.


ASX announcements today and CEO Presentation included following slides


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## Zaxon (31 May 2019)

The reaction to all this seemingly good news?  APX is down 
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
today.


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## verce (31 May 2019)

Zaxon said:


> The reaction to all this seemingly good news?  APX is down
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The market cap is 3.3 BILLION


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## galumay (31 May 2019)

verce said:


> The market cap is 3.3 BILLION




What do you think that means?



Zaxon said:


> The reaction to all this seemingly good news? APX is down
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Market is pretty erratic at the moment and it seems to me to create more volatility in the businesses like APX that have so much perfect, exponential growth baked into the price. I suspect there was some misunderstanding of the guidance, also its based on a significantly higher AUD than current levels so could be conservative.


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## bigdog (29 August 2019)

ASX Announcement today
29/08/2019 8:13:54 AM *FY19 Half Year Results* (uploaded file below)

The market liked today's Announcement but below 12 month high $32.00 in July 2019
-- was up to $28.87






Outlook
The company’s full year underlying EBITDA (including Figure Eight) is trending towards the upper end of $85 million to $90 million. This guidance is based on the Australian dollar averaging US$0.74 between August and December 2019, whereas the local currency is currently fetching 67 U.S. cents.

*














*


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## tinhat (29 August 2019)

bigdog said:


> ASX Announcement today
> 29/08/2019 8:13:54 AM *FY19 Half Year Results* (uploaded file below)
> 
> The market liked today's Announcement but below 12 month high $32.00 in July 2019
> -- was up to $28.87



You've copied a Commsec screenshot for Afterpay Touch (APT)


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## aus_trader (29 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> You've copied a Commsec screenshot for Afterpay Touch (APT)



well spotted.


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## galumay (29 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> You've copied a Commsec screenshot for Afterpay Touch (APT)




LOL! He is a serial offender for quote posting long winded publicly available articles, with no content at all from himself. It adds no value and clogs threads up with highly promotional material that even if members wanted to read it, they would just go to the commercial site that posted it originally. 

Most forums dont allow it, for obvious reasons.


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## aus_trader (30 August 2019)

The content in the bullet points is not bad in terms of content. But lengthy articles may be a bit tedious to read through, so have to agree with galumay. Just a highlights reel with a small explanation would have been better.


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## Trav. (18 November 2019)

I try not to look back at past trades but APX just came up in another scan tonight and I noticed that I sold out on the 1/11/2019 as it was trending sideways and took the hit of -2.3% loss......then I look at what is happening today and boom !!! up 13% today and 24% since I sold. 

Frustrating but you can't win them all unfortunately


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## rnr (19 November 2019)

Yes Trav, frustration is the name of the "game" and with a stock like this, you know it will appen, you just don't know when!


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## basilio (30 November 2019)

Went looking for a speccie to throw into the pot for this months Stock picking competition.,

The Motley Fools suggested Appen was value. Having checked out it's performance  I feel I have arrived rather late to the party and am here to give it the Kiss of Death.  ((Hopefully not..)
_*Appen Limited* (APX) is a global leader in the development of high-quality, human-annotated training data for machine learning and artificial intelligence. 

Appen provides language technology data and services in more than 150 languages and dialects to technology companies and government agencies. Its activities are divided into two business divisions: Content Relevance and Speech and Data Collection.

Appen shares first listed on the ASX in 2015 and the APX share price has seen exponential growth since then. The company is one of the members of ASX tech group ‘WAAAX’, the fast growing collection of tech mid-caps that is high on many investor wishlists.
_
https://www.fool.com.au/tickers/ASX-APX/


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## zaxacel1975 (12 February 2020)

Nice start to the year for Appen, would love to know what the chartists think?
Was planing on adding this tomorrow, wish I had got in Monday before today’s 4.5% bounce.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 June 2020)

Chairman Chris Vonwiller has sold two million shares for "a *number of personal reasons*" and delivered himself a $58 million payday after selling at $29 a share. He remains the company's largest shareholder with approximately nine million shares, or around 7.5 per cent of issued capital. His remaining stake is worth around $272 million.

Appen chief executive Mark Brayan sold 95,535 shares, pocketing $2.9 million, to* satisfy tax obligations and diversify his personal investments*. He sold at $30.60 a share.

Non-executive director Bill Pulver sold 275,000 shares, delivering around $8.4 million. He sold at $30.68 a share

...._ now, what was that P/E, again?
_


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## Dona Ferentes (30 July 2020)

*Appen hacked by 'malicious' actors*

Appen says there has been an incident involving "unauthorised access" to its systems via a third party provider. It said the "malicious actors" stole credentials enabling access to Appen's systems.

The "unauthorised" actors gained access to Appen's user authentication database, which is restricteed to records on Appen's annotation platform. The database contained details such as customer names, email addresses, encrypted passwords and IP addresses. The third party system was in use on a trial basis and is no longer used by Appen.

"Appen believes it was the victim of a random attack and it is aware that other companies have experienced similar incidents via the same third-party provider."

Appen says the unauthorised access was detected soon after it occurred. The company says the impact of the incident is "limited in nature" and not material.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 December 2020)

Appen has slashed full year earnings guidance after warning fourth quarter earnings are failing to pick up as they traditionally do as its big tech customers have been disrupted by the pandemic.

The company had forecast full year underlying EBITDA of between $125 million and $130 million but has now guided to a range of between $106 million to $109 million (equivalent to a guidance range of $108 million and $111 million applying the originally assumed exchange rate of US70¢ for the second half).

The finalised November results showed that while the fourth quarter had improved on the third quarter, the "usual ramp up we traditionally see at this time of year is not occurring".


> "_COVID has clearly disrupted and reshaped the priorities and activities of our customers, especially in California, the home of our biggest customers, where pandemic lockdowns have recently intensified. It has also impacted our face-to-face sales and customer engagement practices_."



Appen expects second half underlying EBITDA is expected to grow at 30 per cent-plus over the first half, applying first half exchange rates to second half performance.


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## galumay (10 December 2020)

I loved the tweet I saw this morning, "APX down as Investors struggle to remember what the business actually does, again."


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## Dona Ferentes (10 December 2020)

galumay said:


> I loved the tweet I saw this morning, "APX down as Investors struggle to remember what the business actually does, again."



lol

and this gem: "_Appen this year reported not one, but two, underlying EBITDA measures, the second of which remarkably excluded investment sales as well as marketing and engineering costs."_

Metricks, methinks

( _"88 per cent of companies used non-statutory performance measures when determining executive remuneration, mostly on short-term incentive plans" _- KPMG report)


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## barney (10 December 2020)

12% Gap Down for a $3.6 billion dollar Company is no small change   I'll stick with my Specs for the moment


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## kenny (10 December 2020)

WAAAX stocks losing their shine, perhaps?

In Appen's case, I tend to give some weight to the plausibility of the CEO's explanation for the revenue drop being attributed to their primary customers responding to COVID with new projects that have yet to require the training services Appen provides.

It does bring up the question of key customer risk in terms of revenue attribution.

SMH excerpt;

"COVID has clearly disrupted and reshaped the priorities and activities of our customers."

RBC Capital’s Garry Sherriff said that in the wake of Facebook, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all beating consensus advertising revenue estimates in their latest quarterlies, Appen's downgrade begs the question - "Is it customer behavior changing or also competitive pressures?”
However, Appen chief executive Mr Brayan assured analysts it was a change in customer behaviour.

"We're in the middle of a storm of activity," he said, as Appen's major tech customers reshape their priorities in the wake of the pandemic.
"The pandemic has meant that our major customers are accelerating the new product development," he said.

Mr Brayan added that while work on some large mature projects had slowed down Appen was well placed to pick up new projects in the new year.

"Material projects have slowed as a result and reduced our revenue and the new projects are yet to require the data volumes that offset the slowdown."

"Although it is impacting this year, it is setting a foundation for a strong year in 2021," he said.
"This new product development trend is positive for us and we are seeing a significant increase in the number of new projects amongst our major customers, albeit some are early in their lifecycle."


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## Ferret (3 January 2021)

My third pick for the 2021 comp.

Beaten down towards the end of 2020, but I think the reduced earnings are deferred rather than lost.  Their language niche seems a good one to me.  I also like it when Aussie tech companies do well on the world stage.


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## frugal.rock (16 February 2021)

Potentially time to start taking notice again.

Appen and I have a long history together (early 2019),  I've always been 1 step behind it and it gets away from me... never held!
No idea about FA which I am guessing is what recessed the price?


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## finicky (23 February 2021)




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## frugal.rock (24 February 2021)

Well, clearly a don't do it in hindsight... quite a low dividend figure.


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## aus_trader (25 February 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, clearly a don't do it in hindsight... quite a low dividend figure.
> 
> View attachment 120556



Tech stocks have come under a bit of selling pressure lately, including this that's in the WAAX basket.


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## Dona Ferentes (25 February 2021)

_Contrasting results from tech darlings, Appen and Wisetech on Wednesday. The former missed its own guidance for earnings, the latter upped its forecast – not because of better revenues but the old standby these days, cost cutting. While Appen faces a year of standing still, WiseTech sees the 2020 improvement continuing, driven by cost cuts and other changes. WiseTech lifted its guidance for the year to June after delivering better than expected earnings for the December half_.

In contrast, shares in Appen, another tech fave, fell more than 12% after it missed earnings targets in its full year results on Wednesday. The company reported an 11% in revenue to $600 million, a 23% rise in net profit to $50.5 million and a 5.5 cents a share dividend that will be paid March 19. The company reported underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $101.7 million which is below its downgraded guidance last year. In December, Appen said it expects 2020 underlying EBITDA – including the impact of the stronger Australian dollar – to be in the range $106 million to $109 million at the actual exchange rates to November of 74 US cents.  The original guidance was for EBITDA of $125 million to $130 million at that exchange rate.

The reported figure of just over $101 million was more than 205 lower than the original range, so the impact of the dollar’s rise has been substantial, but it added to the negative impact of the way its big clients were forced to change business because of COVID in the final months of 2020. The Aussie dollar is now around 78 US cents (and was just over 77 US cents at the end of 2020), so the strengthening currency has been an unwelcome evolution over year to December.

Appen makes most of its money in the US from crowdsourcing a global workforce that does the low-level grunt work for the technology giants. The workers teach computers to recognise basic images and speech, laying down the basic groundwork for the development of ‘Artificial Intelligence’ solutions. Some 80% per cent of Appen’s revenue is generated by just five customers which includes Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft.

The December downgrade was triggered by its technology customers forced to deal with more lockdowns in California and defer completion of old projects and shift resources to new ideas in the wake of COVID-19. Those moves saw Appen’s traditionally strong fourth quarter weaker than expected, with underlying earnings for the period falling around 15% under forecast. Appen says most of deferred projects are due to restart this year. 

The company is forecasting underlying EBITDA of $120 million to $130 million for the 2021 financial year ending December 31. That’s no better than the original forecast for 2020, so the current year will be one where Appen stands still. 

CEO Mark Brayan said _“2020 was a breakout year for new sales, new projects, committed revenue and our entry into China, but it was not without its challenges” – _*the latter something of an understatement.*

The shares fell 12% to $17.81 (close to the day’s low of $17.80). That’s less than half year high of $43.66 and closing on the year low of $15.70.









						WiseTech, Appen in Binary Opposition – ShareCafe
					

Contrasting results from tech darlings Appen and Wisetech on Wednesday, as the former misses its own guidance for earnings and the latter ups its forecast.




					www.sharecafe.com.au


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## finicky (25 February 2021)

Enthusiastic fundamental take on Appen dated in January from an American. Think he said s.p was around $20 *usd* at the time of video. Thought it was worth much more as a long term hold (10 years) on continuing various multiples that I don't think about. Best short explanation for a layman of what Appen actually does that I have heard.


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## aus_trader (25 February 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> ​_Contrasting results from tech darlings, Appen and Wisetech on Wednesday. The former missed its own guidance for earnings, the latter upped its forecast – not because of better revenues but the old standby these days, cost cutting. While Appen faces a year of standing still, WiseTech sees the 2020 improvement continuing, driven by cost cuts and other changes. WiseTech lifted its guidance for the year to June after delivering better than expected earnings for the December half_.
> 
> In contrast, shares in Appen, another tech fave, fell more than 12% after it missed earnings targets in its full year results on Wednesday. The company reported an 11% in revenue to $600 million, a 23% rise in net profit to $50.5 million and a 5.5 cents a share dividend that will be paid March 19. The company reported underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $101.7 million which is below its downgraded guidance last year. In December, Appen said it expects 2020 underlying EBITDA – including the impact of the stronger Australian dollar – to be in the range $106 million to $109 million at the actual exchange rates to November of 74 US cents.  The original guidance was for EBITDA of $125 million to $130 million at that exchange rate.
> 
> ...



Nice analysis @Dona Ferentes , today A2M has joined the falling giants !


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## finicky (25 February 2021)

Just bought 1,000 APX @ 16.92, already in the red, lol
Getting a bit impulsive but Appen has been high on my wishlist for a couple of years.
Gee, better find something to sell soon, one of my speccies better come in.


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## aus_trader (25 February 2021)

finicky said:


> Just bought 1,000 APX @ 16.92, already in the red, lol
> Getting a bit impulsive but Appen has been high on my wishlist for a couple of years.
> Gee, better find something to sell soon, one of my speccies better come in.



Do you really think it's that good to hold long term ? What about the crowd favourite that's fallen out of favour (especially today's 17% drop) A2M ?

Or are these highly boomed stocks coming down to a more realistic valuation ? Or worse still, coming off the wheels ?


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## finicky (25 February 2021)

I do like it as a long term @aus_trader but not on the analytical level of the guy in the vid.
Yes, I do think it's this stock getting down 'towards' more realistic valuation, sure not cheap. I don't think the wheels are coming off it specifically but can't say the same thing about Silicon Valley which condition APX is vulnerable too - as shown by this recent result.
I've never been attracted to A2M because of the China vulnerability


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2021)

finicky said:


> I do like it as a long term @aus_trader but not on the analytical level of the guy in the vid.
> Yes, I do think it's this stock getting down 'towards' more realistic valuation, sure not cheap. I don't think the wheels are coming off it specifically but can't say the same thing about Silicon Valley which condition APX is vulnerable too - as shown by this recent result.
> I've never been attracted to A2M because of the China vulnerability



There is a lotta red on the chart.

gg


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## finicky (25 February 2021)

@Garpal Gumnut yes I don't expect to have picked the bottom


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## finicky (25 February 2021)

Finished on its low - more downward to come I assume.

Daily


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## galumay (25 February 2021)

Yes, its getting down in the range where I might become interested.


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## frugal.rock (25 February 2021)

finicky said:


> @Garpal Gumnut yes I don't expect to have picked the bottom




Good luck with the safari.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2021)

finicky said:


> @Garpal Gumnut yes I don't expect to have picked the bottom



Without trying to mimic the master technician @tech/a , there is plenty of supply. You just never know in this market. I enjoy your posts @finicky .

gg


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## barney (25 February 2021)

Lol. You are a funny man Froogs @frugal.rock  😌


Garpal Gumnut said:


> There is a lotta red on the chart.
> 
> gg




Indeed Garps!  Often the best time to start "accumulating"

ps I know


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## finicky (26 February 2021)

Only a crude simpleton would expect that vesting of performance shares would depend on an improved share price. How quaint. Starting the 2020 year around $22, peaking at $42 , vesting with reference to a $17.81 share price. We probably don't get the space time continuum either. Some are designed by nature to labour, others to *think* and *manage*, like in Brave New World. Nor is performance contingent to an earnings guidance that first disappointed the market, then later was downgraded and which then was not met by the actual the result. Just the use of the word 'actual' shows how far from undertanding I am as a sub Beta that it was necessary to create 668k new shares worth around 12  million dollars for the Alphas.


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## finicky (26 February 2021)

Appen: falling knife or window of opportunity?
					

Since hitting its all-time high of $43 in August, data giant Appen has run into difficulty after difficulty. After a slump in Q4 2020 earnings and a rising Aussie dollar, investors hoped to have their fears quelled and their pockets filled going into the February reporting season. But the stock...




					www.livewiremarkets.com


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## Garpal Gumnut (26 February 2021)

finicky said:


> Only a crude simpleton would expect that vesting of performance shares would depend on an improved share price. How quaint. Starting the 2020 year around $22, peaking at $42 , vesting with reference to a $17.81 share price. We probably don't get the space time continuum either. Some are designed by nature to labour, others to *think* and *manage*, like in Brave New World. Nor is performance contingent to an earnings guidance that first disappointed the market, then later was downgraded and which then was not met by the actual the result. Just the use of the word 'actual' shows how far from undertanding I am as a sub Beta that it was necessary to create 668k new shares worth around 12  million dollars for the Alphas.
> 
> View attachment 120628



Yes @finicky . This sort of behaviour promotes a well founded cynicism in investors.

gg


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## frugal.rock (14 March 2021)

finicky said:


> Just bought 1,000 APX @ 16.92, already in the red, lol
> Getting a bit impulsive but Appen has been high on my wishlist for a couple of years.
> Gee, better find something to sell soon, one of my speccies better come in.



Well, currently it would seem as if  the bottom is in but that's not to say I think it's out of the doldrums yet. The next few weeks will be telling.
I believe it got down to around $15.70 or so.
Have been watching it with intent and will continue to do so.
Thinking of a  bite if there's a small retrace.

View attachment 121350


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## Miner (14 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, currently it would seem as if  the bottom is in but that's not to say I think it's out of the doldrums yet. The next few weeks will be telling.
> I believe it got down to around $15.70 or so.
> Have been watching it with intent and will continue to do so.
> Thinking of a  bite if there's a small retrace.
> ...



could not open the attachment. Thanks


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## frugal.rock (14 March 2021)

Miner said:


> could not open the attachment. Thanks



I believe it's a forum problem and have reported it to @Joe Blow
This time was from phone, but the same happens from a desktop.
I have to edit the post, delete the inserted image, and reinsert using exact same methods.
Was just the chart as per below, which yes, I have edited post, deleted inserted image and re done...
On some occasions, but rarely, it works first go.


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## peter2 (15 March 2021)

The *APX* charts that have been posted don't show the full picture of the price history. I won't go all the way back. The last three years is enough. 






Price is back at the Covid low which makes a double bottom. Going back even more shows how the $16 level has been quite significant as it was resistance in late 2018. 

Price rallied strongly off the Covid low but has since fallen out of favour. The bearish tech sentiment may account for the latter half of the fall but it seems something was awry Aug 2020. If the Aug2020 issue has been sorted and the bearish tech sentiment changes, it'll make *APX* worth considering at this price.


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## Joe Blow (15 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I believe it's a forum problem and have reported it to @Joe Blow
> This time was from phone, but the same happens from a desktop.
> I have to edit the post, delete the inserted image, and reinsert using exact same methods.
> Was just the chart as per below, which yes, I have edited post, deleted inserted image and re done...
> On some occasions, but rarely, it works first go.




I'm not actually sure what the problem is. Intermittent issues are difficult to diagnose. If you have the time, could you please document your process of attaching files in the ASF Issues, Errors and Problems thread and include screenshots of each step so I can understand where things may be going wrong.

I haven't had any issues attaching files, so I'm not sure where things are going wrong for you.


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## finicky (15 March 2021)

@frugal.rock 
yes not out of the woods at all, just made a low - yet seems to be gathering a pennant under $18 and could head up to $20? There's a gap just under there. Just speculating the short term of course.

It's a pattern of mine to buy impulsively out of fomo if I really like a company, which I do APX. It does serve a purpose though in keeping you focused on a stock if you make an early premature 'parcel' buy I have found. Easier to get distracted and wander away otherwise. Someone said on a forum once that sometimes the best buys are stocks that you already have in your folio. So will probably double up if there is a significant drop below my buy price which I think is a strong possibility after an interim. Won't be selling the ones I have, not trading, no mental stop-loss.

There is an obvious uptrend support line formed by the significant lows going back to early 2017 and this was broken with volume in Feb/Mar and there is nothing in the recent price action to nullify that imo.


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## finicky (16 March 2021)

Nice, should move up to fill the gap below $20, or my name's not finicky.
The prowess 🧑‍🎓🏌️‍♂️🗿📬🔦


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## finicky (20 March 2021)

Higher volume, bullish engulfing daily candle 🏳️🏎️
Sorry, nothing else to do Saturdays, lol 🕳️🕰️💻


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## finicky (25 March 2021)

Whoops - curving over, not a good look now, was it all just a bounce?

Daily


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## frugal.rock (25 March 2021)

Looking like it wants to retest the 16 mark?
Either way, it should hold out at 15 or worst case could be a bum rush the wrong way to near 10....
A lot of market scenarios at the moment, hard to tell.
There's no big volume pushing it down (yet), so not to worry at the moment.

Edit; due to the most likely holding time frames,  I'd use the weekly chart finicky, it smoothes out the worry lines...


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## finicky (25 March 2021)

You're right, the weekly doesn't look as bad
It's just loose thinking but I've been prepared for $12. Not my favoured scenario obviously. It's just a rough measured target from the high vol, gap down, break below $28


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## finicky (21 April 2021)

Looks just to me like APX is at a critical level. Has not broken the recent March low yet ($15) but today made a short term lower low. Has failed this time to meet up with the falling 50dma. Except for non confirming momentum indicators the price seems to want to go lower. If it doesn't pull up at $15 my minimum target would be $14 but I give somewhere down at $10 a chance. I have no stop loss and am looking to add on a big fall.

Held

APX 2 year Dly


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## galumay (21 April 2021)

Still too expensive for me, but at least its headed in the right direction!


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## finicky (5 May 2021)

$14.51 last I looked.

I have been seeing $15 as important to hold. APX is making a lower low to that made in March 2020 (not shown here, see above for daily chart)
Looking at the daily, the most likely scenario now would appear to be continuation of the downtrend?

*Hourly*


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## finicky (6 May 2021)

Appen CEO speaking at Macquarie conference today. His speech notes are out.

Hourly


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## galumay (6 May 2021)

Its getting closer!


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## finicky (6 May 2021)

> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Temporary pause in trading just announced
I obtusely couldn't read too much bad in the note, maybe there was euphemistic code in there for - market is chaotic and roiling ("dynamic") Our competitors are getting  more competitive and blunting our edge ("competitors are maturing") lol


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## bsnews (6 May 2021)

finicky said:


> Temporary pause in trading just announced
> I obtusely couldn't read too much bad in the note, maybe there was euphemistic code in there for - market is chaotic and roiling ("dynamic") Our competitors are getting  more competitive and blunting our edge ("competitors are maturing") lol



The competition I feel has came from the FANG stocks thereselves. So as not the allow Appen to dictate pricing to them.


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## bsnews (7 May 2021)

bsnews said:


> The competition I feel has came from the FANG stocks thereselves. So as not the allow Appen to dictate pricing to them.



Really good bounce this morning.


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## galumay (7 May 2021)

I was reading some interesting articles about new developments in AI which largely make the work of companies such as Appen irrelevant. Users are developing self supervised learning for AI that bypasses the work that companies like Appen do with lots of humans. 

One re Facebook here,


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## over9k (7 May 2021)

This thing's been a falling knife for a while.


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## finicky (10 May 2021)

So much for that 'rally' 🎢
I anticipate $10 as first target now, jmo
This has cost me about $5k so far, but arguably worth it to stay attuned to the stock.
I plan to add at some point unless I change my mind, the more doubters the better (cliche) but I believe it.

Daily


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## Miner (26 August 2021)

finicky said:


> So much for that 'rally' 🎢
> I anticipate $10 as first target now, jmo
> This has cost me about $5k so far, but arguably worth it to stay attuned to the stock.
> I plan to add at some point unless I change my mind, the more doubters the better (cliche) but I believe it.
> ...



APX has been showin
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
g off consistently a down hill.
Today's announcement has put the nail into the coffin.
There is plenty of scope tomorrow even if market has punished less than savagely after such a disastrous financial performance- https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Cutting the emotion only few weeks back I sold out APX and thinking today's market, that was right action not knowing today's market.

55 percent NPAT loss  and heavy reliance on China - Gees -


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## frugal.rock (27 August 2021)

Have bought a little.
Couldn't resist $10 for a long hold... 😬


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2021)

I note the new director Richard Freudenstein recently picked up 30,000 shares around $10.46 each.
A lazy $313,000 👍

I'm happy with my 10.03 entry...


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## RikFever (30 August 2021)

Not as flash but 10.20 for me.....
first-ever trade 
let the fun and games begin


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2021)

RikFever said:


> first-ever trade



Good luck with that.

Am looking at this one as a long term investment, not a trade.
I will register for the DRP also (dividend reinvestment plan)


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## RikFever (30 August 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Good luck with that.
> 
> Am looking at this one as a long term investment, not a trade.
> I will register for the DRP also (dividend reinvestment plan)



perhaps a poor choice of words, I'm also viewing it as a longer-term investment


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## Dona Ferentes (30 August 2021)

a few sucker rallies on the way down.

_Shares in Appen plunged on Thursday, after the AI data services company reported profits had more than halved during the first half of the year, as customers such as Facebook, Microsoft and Google, grappling with global data privacy changes, redirect spending away from intrusive user tracking technology_.

Revenue slid 2 per cent to $US196.6 million (about $270 million), while profit crashed 55.1 per cent to $US6.7 million for the first half of 2021


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## frugal.rock (31 August 2021)

Looking like the bottom is in.


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## frugal.rock (6 September 2021)

Nice strong recovery run this morning.
Punched nicely past $11+


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## finicky (13 January 2022)

Reports end of their 2021 fy on Feb 24

 Chart looks to be showing real signs of basing here.
Price has moved well outside primary downtrend, volume has dribbled off and is mostly positive. A higher low has been put in. Today it rose +5% but again volume is low. Today not shown on this weekly chart.
I was foolish to take a starter pack in this back at $16 and don't feel like adding now merely on a chart hunch.

To my crude reckoning the low it has made so far @ $8 is only fair value but I am considering only the last two years of poor results. If it returns to its past level of profitability it is worth a lot more.

Weekly


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## Miner (24 February 2022)

APPEN LIMITED APX​LAST PRICE / TODAY'S CHANGE6.760  -1.811 (-21.121%)VOLUME4,266,779BID / OFFER RANGE$6.750 - $6.770MARKET CAPITALISATION1.05B
Another red wine from APX (the other came from 360) with a complacent CEO (why not to justify his bonus and KPI) and shareholders' reward.
DNH


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02491086-2A1358896?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


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## frugal.rock (24 February 2022)

Punching new lows...
Guess the market expected better results?
Didn't seem too bad to me. 😅


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## finicky (24 February 2022)

For accounting - just guessing, but maybe some BS detectors are going off. NPAT is down 10.4% to $41m but they feature EBITDA.
They say amortisation of their investment into product development increased. Maybe there has been operating cost disguised as capital investment?
A Charlie Munger quote on the EBITDA metric, "“I think that, *every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words "bull**** earnings.”*

Guidance looks negative in the short term but giving an outlook right out to 2026:
"Our long-term focus means we will no longer provide short-term quantitative EBITDA guidance"

Meanwhile I think, expect investment costs to increase and cash conversion from EBITDA to decrease which it did this year, down from 103% to 77% and poor NPAT growth?

Held


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## frugal.rock (24 February 2022)

Had thought it might have been the reference to business in China. 
Precovid anything China went gangbusters, now it's the opposite.


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## So_Cynical (25 February 2022)

Appin looks cheap now, i thought the annual report looked ok, MC of about 1 Billion, 50M in cash, 450M annual revenue and zero debt, global market with lots of room for growth, perusing a growth sector. 4 and a half year low, timing is good ~ I'm in for a trade.
~


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## frugal.rock (25 February 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> I'm in for a trade.



May I be so bold as to ask your entry price? No obligation to tell, of course.
I paid 6.29, order was in before open today.


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## So_Cynical (25 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> May I be so bold as to ask your entry price? No obligation to tell, of course.
> I paid 6.29, order was in before open today.



I didn't get out of bed till 2pm so i got in late ~ 6.14, doing well today  cum dividend as well.


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## frugal.rock (25 February 2022)

Out on 6.91 today.
Satisfied with that (4 cent below day high). 
Not worried about a 5.5 cent divvie.
Just dropping this here so I can kick myself in 6 months for not sticking it in the mid to long hold folio. 😬


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## So_Cynical (26 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Out on 6.91 today.
> Satisfied with that (4 cent below day high).
> Not worried about a 5.5 cent divvie.
> Just dropping this here so I can kick myself in 6 months for not sticking it in the mid to long hold folio. 😬



Ill give it a few months, 7 dollars something should be doable.


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## frugal.rock (1 March 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> Ill give it a few months, 7 dollars something should be doable.



Didn't think it was going to to take a few months. I'm already kicking myself... don't I feel like a 🦐


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## So_Cynical (1 March 2022)

Yeah just looked $7.38 ~ i think ill wait a bit longer, new target 7.70.


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## frugal.rock (26 May 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Out on 6.91 today.
> Satisfied with that (4 cent below day high).
> Not worried about a 5.5 cent divvie.
> Just dropping this here so I can kick myself in 6 months for not sticking it in the mid to long hold folio. 😬



I get to kick myself today 🤪
3 months earlier...
Some announcement seems to have pulled it out of consolidation...
Horribly big gap to fill now


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## Dona Ferentes (26 May 2022)

The media preface APX with "_Heavily sold-off " _but now the company has a bid from Canadian customer experience IT services company Telus International,  confirming a $1.2 billion non-binding indicative proposal on Thursday morning. The unsolicited bid is for 100 per cent of the shares, priced at $9.50 per share.

From mid $6 prior, it ran 30% to $8.64 before sliding a bit to $8.20


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## Dona Ferentes (26 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The media preface APX with "_Heavily sold-off " _but now the company has a bid from Canadian customer experience IT services company Telus International,  confirming a $1.2 billion non-binding indicative proposal on Thursday morning. The unsolicited bid is for 100 per cent of the shares, priced at $9.50 per share.



and, worthy of some of the more opaque corporate adventurers,
Telus pulls Appen bid with no explanation​


> _Appen has been left high and dry by its Canadian suitor Telus International, less than 10 hours after the company announced $1.2 billion non-binding indicative bid._


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## galumay (26 May 2022)

Interesting reading back over this thread, its been a steady and long fall from grace - like so many of the businesses in the sector. At one point I had some interest in the business, but it became clear to me its quite likely this business simply wont exist in a few years - its really just a labour hire business and the real AI processes will make it obsolete.


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## Dona Ferentes (2 August 2022)

galumay said:


> Interesting reading back over this thread, its been a steady and long fall from grace - like so many of the businesses in the sector. ---its really just a labour hire business and the real AI processes will make it obsolete.



and it's all coming home
_
... costs in this half are higher primarily due to transformation costs, and investment in product and technology resulting in higher employee expenses, recruitment, and IT costs. Together with lower-than-expected revenue, this has impacted earnings and margins_.



> Appen reported a staggering 69 per cent fall in underlying EBITDA to just $US8.9 million in the first half, missing analyst estimates by 67 per cent.



down today, some 27%


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## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Punching new lows...



Those were the good days, _froogs_

Appen has warned it now expects FY 2022 EBITDA between $US13 million and $US18 million on revenue between $US375 million and $US395 million.


> “_As noted at the half year, *challenging *external operating and macro conditions have resulted in *weaker *digital advertising revenue and a *slowdown *in spending by some of our major customers. “This has impacted our ad-related programs and had a *flow on impact* to non-ad related programs and some core programs._”


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## peter2 (3 December 2022)

Appen has had an interesting journey. I've posted the monthly chart on the left which shows the massive trend higher and the massive trend lower. Are we there yet?  Possibly. *APX* is a casualty of the tech selloff but they've still got a business and no debt. 

Price is showing signs of demand and triggered a reversal setup for me (daily chart).  Price is now above the lows experienced after their latest disappointing news (Oct 22).


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