# Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?



## Splint

Hi everyone,

many years ago I did a course about Gann run by a Melbourne based trader and forcaster. I found that the course wasn't particularly good. I've read Truth of the Stock Tape And Wall Street Stock Selector written by W.D. Gann and I found it to be vauge and lacking substance, particularly in respect to actual Gann methodolgy.

As we all know, Ganns record of forcasting success and claimed wealth accrued from stock and commodity trading has had ongoing doubts cast over it, even Ganns own son has claimed he was fraudulent.

Gann has a reputation as an auther to be vauge and to speak in riddles, and some claim that he never revealed his true methods. There are many individuals and groups running courses in Gann trading, much of which would be based on their own interpretations of what Gann taught.

What I'd like to know is how practicle and usable is the Gann methodology for trading. Is it that some people who use Gann see it through rose coloured glasses and make it out to be better than it really is? Is it consistant enough to be at the core of a trading methodology or is it something which should be used as a secondry indicator to traditional technical analysis? How does it stack up against traditional tech trading methods like support and resistance, breakouts, patterns, trends, price/volume activity and technical indicators?

I know that Larry Williams has some serious issues with Gann techniques and dispises people selling Gann courses. Of course there are vested interests from both sides on that issue, but interesting none the less.

Will it really help my trading? Is it really worth learning and if so,what's the best way to go about learning it?

Thanks
Splint


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## MRC & Co

Splint said:


> methods like support and resistance, patterns, trends, price/volume activity




Interesting post.  Should create some discussion.

I haven't looked at Gann enough to comment with real credibility, because he lost my interest shortly after reading due to my seriously questioning his (and his methods) credibility.  

I would say the above mentioned information by yourself of which I have highlighted, is by far the most useful information to trading and is basically, all I use.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

Splint said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> many years ago I did a course about Gann run by a Melbourne based trader and forcaster. I found that the course wasn't particularly good. I've read Truth of the Stock Tape And Wall Street Stock Selector written by W.D. Gann and I found it to be vauge and lacking substance, particularly in respect to actual Gann methodolgy.
> 
> As we all know, Ganns record of forcasting success and claimed wealth accrued from stock and commodity trading has had ongoing doubts cast over it, even Ganns own son has claimed he was fraudulent.
> 
> Gann has a reputation as an auther to be vauge and to speak in riddles, and some claim that he never revealed his true methods. There are many individuals and groups running courses in Gann trading, much of which would be based on their own interpretations of what Gann taught.
> 
> What I'd like to know is how practicle and usable is the Gann methodology for trading. Is it that some people who use Gann see it through rose coloured glasses and make it out to be better than it really is? Is it consistant enough to be at the core of a trading methodology or is it something which should be used as a secondry indicator to traditional technical analysis? How does it stack up against traditional tech trading methods like support and resistance, breakouts, patterns, trends, price/volume activity and technical indicators?
> 
> I know that Larry Williams has some serious issues with Gann techniques and dispises people selling Gann courses. Of course there are vested interests from both sides on that issue, but interesting none the less.
> 
> Will it really help my trading? Is it really worth learning and if so,what's the best way to go about learning it?
> 
> Thanks
> Splint




Just quoting Gann as his name was is a bit ambiguous. What does it mean? 
Some of Gann's thinking was good. I haven't studied Gann's techniques but have heard others talk about him. 

Perhaps specific topics need to be quoted for discussion.


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## Splint

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Just quoting Gann as his name was is a bit ambiguous. What does it mean?




For the benifit of the thread I've borrowed some info about Gann from an archived page from Wikipeadia.



{{npov}} '''William Delbert Gann''' (June_6, 1878 – June, 1955), usually just called W. D. Gann, is famous as one of the most successful stock and commodity traders in history. Although he currently garners little name-recognition with the general public, he became a legend amongst traders. He was famous not only for his trading abilities, but also for his financial market forecasts; the accuracy of these forecasts is the subject of substantial debate, and Gann's son later alleged that many of Gann's claims were fraudulent. ==History== Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas on June 6, 1878. He started trading in stocks and commodities in 1902, and in 1908 he moved to New York City and opened his own brokerage firm. His early trading career was far from successful and he went bust more than once. This impelled him to look deeply into the markets; a unique analyst, his investigations led him to reach some startling conclusions, although controversy surrounds the claims of his trading successes and whether he did indeed reveal his real methods or whether he took his secrets to the grave. Gann claimed to have made over 50 million dollars in profits from his market forecasting and trading. After five decades of success with his forecasting and trading, WD Gann moved to Florida where he continued writing, publishing, teaching, and studying the markets up until his death in June, 1955. He claimed to base his market trading and forecasting methods on Time, as well as on Price, and said repeatedly that "time is the most important" when it comes to analysing and forecasting market movements. He claimed to be able to determine not only ''what'' the turning-point's price would be, but also ''when'' it would occur. The accuracy of Mr. Gann's forecasts was remarkable: in October 1909, with a newspaper reporter tagging along as a witness, he made 286 trades over a period of 25 market days; these trades were both long and short the market. Of these 286 trades, 264 were profitable. In 1933, during the depths of the Great_Depression, he made 479 trades; 422 were winners, 57 were losers. His return on capital was reported to be an astounding 4,000% in that year alone.{{fact}} Mr. Gann was not only able to consistently rack up amazingly high percentages of winning trades, he also issued forecasts for a number of markets up to one year in advance. In late 1928, he even predicted the great stock market crash for the fall of October 1929, saying that it would be the start of the biggest panic in history.{{fact}} In 1929 he also published the novel "Tunel Thru The Air, or Looking Back from 1940", which contains many descriptions of future events. Many of those events have been interpreted as references to later events, including World_War_II, and in particular the attack on the United States by Japan at Pearl_Harbor. ==Methods of W D Gann== Gann published many books about trading and sold many training courses. To say that the methods he published were unorthodox would be a significant understatement. As a young man, Gann showed a flair for mathematics and an aggressively inquisitive intellect, being prepared to study subjects that would be considered "outside the box" in comparsion to established thought on economics, finance and markets.{{fact}} Gann published work on Numerology and Astrology; he was also a Freemason, Shriner, Christian and devoted student of the Bible. In addition to his pursuit of what are regarded from a conventional stance as Fringe_beliefs, he famously said that he found everything he needed in the Bible. He spent time studying in London, Egypt and India where he is said to have picked up much of the occult knowledge that he claimed to use. He also spent nine months studying at the Astor_Museumin New_York_City and the British_Museum in London. He was even observed on many occasions in the trading pits to carry papers, devices and charts that related to these belief systems, for example the Square_of_Nine and the Mason's Set-square and Divider.{{fact}} However, he believed that the truth could only be learnt through perserverance, hard work, study and self-discipline, which he exhibited in his tee-totalism and modest life-style. It is alleged that he therefore never revealed his actual methods or techniques, believing that only the worthy should know them and should find them through their own efforts. The idea that he used the techniques that he published has received scorn from some quarters. What is undeniable, however, is that he encoded some kind of messages in his novel ''Tunnel Through The Air or Looking Back from 1940'' and it could thus be implied that he did intend for these messages to be discovered one day.{{fact}} Whether or not he revealed his real techniques and whether or not ''Tunnel Thru The Air'' did contain them in concealed form, those on the public record can be summarised as follows: * Time and Price are "The Same" - when they "square out", a major change of trend is due * Time is the most important factor: do day/week counts of 30, 45, 60, 90, 180. * Resistence levels in both time and price are 25, 33, 50, 66, 75 percent of the previous range. They can be extended (extrapolated) to 100, 150 & 200 percent. * Trend lines, which Gann can claim to have invented the use of.{{fact}} ==Controversy== W D Gann's only son John Gann is alleged to have said that Gann never did actually make the sum that was claimed and actually lived off the proceeds of the books and courses that he sold. It is on the record, however, that John Gann worked with his father but that they went separate ways, either because they did not agree on how to analyse the markets or because Gann, Jr. was unable to apply his father's astrological ideas, or simply did not approve of them. Gann, Jr. went on to become a successful broker and analyst and trader in his own right, so whatever the truth of their falling-out, the possibility of a simple father-and-son rivalry should not be ignored. Not only this, but John Gann seemed to change his tune:{{fact}} :"Foster indicated to us that Gann's son was not happy about his father. The elder Gann apparently was a task master and from other sources, a womanizer too. Gann's son told Foster, somewhat to this effect, 'Everything you need to know to make money in the markets are found in my father's books and writing.' Then there was a click. We now know that Gann's son died several years ago and his remote family is scattered throughout the country. What we also know was that Gann's son was a member of the New York Stock Exchange, trading for his own account. 


Continued next post........


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## Splint

Now, concerning William D's estate. From sources I know to be relatively accurate, his Florida estate records showed an estate back at the time of his death in 1955 to be worth about $250,000. This was a nice piece of change back then, probably equivalent to maybe $4-$5 million today." The relatively modest fortune he left behind is difficult to correlate to his reputation as a trader, but then again he may have disposed of or hidden his real fortune. This controversy has only heightened the myth and legend of Gann, leading several generations to pour over his books, courses and ephemera in search of clues as which techniques he actually employed. His prophetic novel ''Tunnel Thru The Air'' certainly contains many encoded messages, for Gann went on record to say as much, but whether even these messages revealed his true methods will probably never be known. A whole industry has sprung up, with many claiming to have "deciphered" or "figured out" Gann and a second layer of controversy now surrounds these claims. As it stands in 2006, it seems that the legend of Gann aids the sale of many books and courses but, if anyone has indeed got to the bottom of the Gann mystery and discovered his key to near-limitless riches, cynics say that they would be unlikely to sell their wares in public. Certainly Gann's charts look complex and alluring, but the student should remember that visual allure is quite independent from practical worth.{{fact}} ==Later Life== Later in Gann's career, he seemed to be less interested in writing about and publicising his methods and focused instead on what he believed to be the philosophical ramifications of his methods. His book ''Magic Word'' is entirely about the Biblical name Jehovah and lays out his belief in fundamental Christian values, such as hard work, Discipline, Love and Honour. His pamphlet ''Face Facts America'' focused on real world issues that USA was facing in the mid-20th Century. Whatever the philanthropic intent of these works, he would most probably be given the disparaging label "Bible basher" in the present era. If, however, he truly had stumbled on the secret key to the markets in his wide-ranging study, then this label would be unfair. Since Gann perhaps took his real secrets with him to the grave, we may never know for sure what he saw in the Bible and what he used in the markets.{{fact}} ==Influences on W D Gann== The early 20th century was a time of fertile interest in the Occult arts, quite aside from Gann's interest in the field. He can be said to be one of the founding fathers of Financial_astrology and sold a great number of esoteric texts by authors of the time and from earlier ages, alongside his own market forecast letters. Of particular influence on Gann were the works of Sepharial, an English Astrologer. In a time where many esoteric authors went by a single name, other works he cited were by authors such as Raphael, Alvidas, Dr_George_W_Carey, Alan_Leo, Maurice_Wemyss and George_Bayer. Many of these works are obscure and are often out-of-print; reprints where available can be extraordinarily expensive due to demand from collectors and the promise they are thought to hold.{{fact}} ==Books by W D Gann== * ''Tunnel Thru The Air, or looking back from 1940'' * ''Truth of The Stock Tape'' * ''Wall Street Stock Selector'' * ''How to Make Profts Trading in Commodities'' * ''45 Years in Wall Street'' * ''Magic Word'' * ''How to Make Profits Trading In Puts And Calls'' (an early text on trading options) * ''Face Facts America'' ==Gann Quotes== * "The Morning Telegraph" Sunday Dec 17, 1922 article by Arthur Angy: 
"W.D. Gann has scored another astounding hit in his 1922 stock forecast issued in December 1921. That forecast called for the first top of the bull wave in April, second top in August and the final top of the bull market October 8 to 15, and strange as it may seem, the average prices of twenty industrila stocks reached the highest point on Oct 14 and declined 10 points thirty days after that date." 
* "The Ticker & Investment Digest", Dec 1909, Vol 5 Num 2: 
"In order to substantiate Mr Gann's claims, we called upon Mr William E Gilley, an inspector of Imports. [Gilley says] "It is very difficult for me to remember all the predictions and operations of Mr Gann which may be classed as phenomenal but the following are a few: In 1908 when Union Pacific was 168-1/8 he told me that it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short down to 152-5/8 covering on the weak spots, and putting it out again on the rallies, securing 23 points profit out of an 18 point wave. He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50 and said 'this Steel will run up to 58 but will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16-3/4.' We sold it short around 58-3/4 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58-3/4 from there it declined 17.5 points." "One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September wheat would sell at $1.20 This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (last day) the option was selling below $1.08 and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr Gann said 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market, then there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care where the price is now, it must go there.' It is common history that September wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of the trading, closing at that figure." 
* From Gann's "Master Commodities Course" 
"According to my discovery of the 60 year cycle, I had figured that 1929 would repeat like 1869, 1909 and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find the top was reached in August 1909 and 60 years before, top was reached in July 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for 1929, you will see that I had figured that the top must come no later than the end of August and that a "Black Friday" would come in September...... there is no other way, outside from using the 20 and 60 year cycle that we would have forecasted this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely in 1929."


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## chops_a_must

My EYES!!!!


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## Splint

To add to my questions a little, years back when I did the Gann course in Melbourne (which was a load of crap because I was taught nothing of the techniques often mentioned on trading forms) there was a student in the class who had a real knack of finding stocks which conformed pretty neatly to the cycles we had neen learning about. Interestingly enough, when I started searching for the said cycles I allways seemed to come up empty handed. Sometimes I found stocks which appeared to be cyclical, but nothing like Gann cycles, other stocks seemed to be fairly random, it did become clear that stocks conforming to Gann cycles (what I had been learning anyway) were few and far between. This got me to thinking how much of the Gann cycles was coincedentally occouring, or put another way, if I picked out some numbers randomly and searched through the market unil I found stocks conforming to my new found cycles, would I acheive comparable trading results to that if I were using Gann cycles.
Assuming that I could find some stocks which worked well with Gann and I was able to get into and out of trends at optimum points, the key question in my mind still remains, is there any real benefit in using that if there are other stocks which either trend strongly or are in a wide but predictable trading range. At the end if the day it's all about how much we can get out of the market, not how neatly we can do it.

I'm not aware of any traders of "Market Wizard" calibre who predominantly use Gann techniques, are there any?

Cheers
Splint


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## theasxgorilla

Splint said:


> I'm not aware of any traders of "Market Wizard" calibre who predominantly use Gann techniques, are there any?




I don't know about "Market Wizard calibre" but last I heard Cameron Mitchell was doing very well.


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## Pager

I don't trade using any Gann methods but have read a little about them, Ganns books he wrote are almost written in riddles at times and ive heard that if you can understand and decipher what he wrote then you will trade like Gann 

The safety in the market course is based around Gann and to be honest the ABC trading method they peddle is ok and can work, other Gann courses run to tens of thousands of $ 

Gann does seem to attract alot of critics and to be honest i do find the astrological side of his methods very strange but that said his methods do seem to have alot of followers and i don't doubt some make good money but think that may come down to good money management more than anything 

Like any method each to there own and if you can get something from it then who cares what everyone else thinks or says.


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## tech/a

Here is a good summary of Gann.

http://www.cycletrader.com.au/cycles.htm

Confluence of analysis gives "pressure points" or points of interest going forward.

Application of analysis (any form of analysis) is to me the key to successful use of analysis.
If you place on a chart all those confluence points of interest giong forward you will note that there are many.
Like Elliott/Fibonacci (which are often used in conjunction with Gann) if the point doesnt hold then the next point of confluence is used.
Its a case of prove the analysis or disprove.

In hindsite it is easy to remove all those points of confluence to reveal only the points which can be seen to have held.
This makes ANY analysis appear very accurate. When infact when applying in realtime many if not more pressure points dont hold and are then false.

Gann has more of these points in its analysis arsenal than any other form of analysis I have found.

I have watched a few "Good" Practitioners and my observations have been that their success rate is no better than anyone elses.Those that I have observed have had in my view poor application techniques--one taught me whilst doing my Technical Analysis 101 with the Securities Institute.
As A lecturer I expected that his application would be excellent but found that when he invited me into his home to watch him "trade live." that HE had no methodology for application of the analysis.While I'm sure some do I'm yet to see it applied profitably. Seen plenty of it applied here on ASF and whilst there are some excellent calls there are many more which pass--disproven.

For me I have found other forms of analysis simpler to apply and more suitable to my need for instant visual analysis. 
Just my view.


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## wayneL

tech/a said:


> For me I have found other forms of analysis simpler to apply and more suitable to my need for instant visual analysis.
> Just my view.




That about encapsulates my view on Gann too. Nothing against it, but a convoluted way to get to a 50-50 punt.


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## kam75

To make money trading you have to find your own edge. You have to find what works for you.  I know a lady who asks her pet parrott what shares to buy and she makes money.  With a simple strategy and sound money management you can get ahead.  Before you pay a spruiker for a course, why don't you read a few books on the subject?  There's plenty of books on Gann.


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## The Edge

Sunday  28 December 2008

FWIW, Gann was an incredibly astute astrologer, and when
you understand astrology, you can begin to understand
Gann.

I knew Billy Jones when he took over all the Gann material.
In reviewing some of Gann's original charts, they were
marked with planetary signs.

Gann's personal assistant was a man named Robert Courter.
I met with and spoke with him many times, prior to his
death, about 10 years ago.  He confirmed how well Gann
knew astrology, and Courter himself was also well-versed
in the art.

Tunnel Through The Air is replete with astological references
in the writing.  Gann's circles are all astrologically based, as
are the squares he uses.  His number144, which looms large,
is 12 squared, the twelve astrological signs.  

Reference to wheels within wheels are ways of viewing the
relationships of planetary orbits, and it is the angles of the
planets that affect/impact price behavior, plus, eclipses were 
major when looking for reversals in trend, etc.

90 degrees and 180 degrees were "negative" angles, while
60 degrees and 120 degrees were "positive", in general.
Nothing about it is mechanical.

The price of gold is influenced by its planetary ruler, the Sun,
as another example.  Like I said, it is very much of an art,
firstly, knowing astrology, and then more importantly, how
the planetary orbits relate to prices of various stocks or
commodities.

As above, so below.


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## Trader Paul

The Edge said:


> Sunday  28 December 2008
> 
> FWIW, Gann was an incredibly astute astrologer, and when
> you understand astrology, you can begin to understand
> Gann.
> 
> In reviewing some of Gann's original charts, they were
> marked with planetary signs.
> 
> Tunnel Through The Air is replete with astological references
> in the writing.  Gann's circles are all astrologically based, as
> are the squares he uses.  His number144, which looms large,
> is 12 squared, the twelve astrological signs.
> 
> 90 degrees and 180 degrees were "negative" angles, while
> 60 degrees and 120 degrees were "positive", in general.
> Nothing about it is mechanical.
> 
> The price of gold is influenced by its planetary ruler, the Sun,
> as another example.  Like I said, it is very much of an art,
> firstly, knowing astrology, and then more importantly, how
> the planetary orbits relate to prices of various stocks or
> commodities.
> 
> As above, so below.






Hi folks, 

Let's clarify some of the statements above ..... 

"Gann was an incredibly astute astrologer" 

A more accurate statement may be, that Gann worked closely,
with "an incredibly astute astrologer" ..... as found in Gann's
own book, Tunnel thru the Air, Walter Gorn-Old was the source
of Gann's astrological knowledge.

-----

"In reviewing some of Gann's original charts, they were
marked with planetary signs."

..... this is true. Copies of those original charts may be found
in a simple websearch.

-----

"Tunnel Through The Air is replete with astrological references"

Sure, Tunnel Through The Air IS replete with astrological references,
that relate to the trades, across different stocks and commodities.

But, there's also more than 150 Bible references in that same text,
which also relate to the same trades ..... so, these also need to be
deciphered, in order to gain a better understanding of Gann's methods.

-----

"His number144, which looms large, is 12 squared, the twelve 
astrological signs."

..... 144 is 12 squared, but it is NOT the signs that 144 relates to,
in an astrological sense ..... it is a heavenly body.

-----

"Nothing about it is mechanical." ..... this statement is Sooooooo far
off the mark !~!

When the known pressure points are triggered by planetary movements,
then those positive and negative angles described above come into play
and these cycles can be calculated VERY ACCURATELY, making the
process VERY MECHANICAL ... !~! 

.....

"The price of gold is influenced by its planetary ruler, the Sun"

Rulerships are *man-made interpretations*, which are extremely
vulnerable to error ... for some, it is much better to stay with the 
God-given and mechanical time cycles, associated with the 
*very accurate and predictable* planetary movements.

By removing the man-made layer of interpretations, we reveal the 
sacred geometry beneath, making it a lot easier to understand ..... 

Basically all of Gann's books, except TTTTA, relate to the mechanics of 
simple time cycles and market geometry. With such simple mechanics,
already in place as a pre-supposition, then TTTTA adds another layer,
with the more dynamic time cycles of astrology.

Of course, Gann's methods do not suit everybody, as it does take a
LOT of study to sort out the various approaches ..... but for many
traders, making the journey itself, is fulfilling.

have a great day

    paul



=====


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## The Edge

Monday  29 December 2008

Quibbling and semantics are wasted efforts for me,
but to remain silent would imply assent to the above
response.

My sources are original, and I stand on them.

To the point that needs to be addressed:

> "Nothing about it is mechanical." ..... 
> this statement is Sooooooo far off the mark !~!

Not at all.

> When the known pressure points are triggered by 
> planetary movements, then those positive and 
> negative angles described above come into play
> and these cycles can be calculated VERY ACCURATELY, 
> making the process VERY MECHANICAL ... !~! 

That is very much like saying, when the knowlege of
how to be a brain surgeon is once acquired, performing
brain surgery is VERY MECHANICAL.

[Pick your own analogy]

While the conclusion could very loosely be construed
as true, it utterly fails to take into consideration the
knowledge and skills needed, along with an understanding
of when and how to implement the observations, in
order to make that process VERY MECHANICAL.

Moving on.


Also:

> But, there's also more than 150 Bible references 
> in that same text, which also relate to the same 
> trades ..... so, these also need to be deciphered, 
> in order to gain a better understanding of Gann's 
> methods.

True, re the biblical references, themselves astrological
in content.


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## gazelle

Understanding and identifying the intrinsic componets that characterize  The  Law of Vibration is much like trying to understand the mechanism of a closed watch . We can visibly see the face of the watch with its 45 90 135 180 deg timing increments positioned around the dial . We can also see the geometric  structure as the minute and hour hands move through the price and time framework but without opening the case and unlocking the inner mechanism we are unable to compare our percieved workings of the object against the real workings of the inner mechanism herein lies the difficulty . Gann used both Civil Time & Plannetary Time in his work and placed a great deal of importance on the Natal Date of an instrument which is evident in his US Steel analysis . Gann used the FTD first trade date and also The Incorporation date as 0 Deg points which in the case of US Steel are quite close togethor .  Sometimes it is quite common for a particular stock to have an incorporation date in say 1940 and the FTD in 1952 so there is a 12 year timing difference between the dates although both dates are significant 0 Deg points for future calculations . The proportionate parts of the circle are an important factor and we see Gann dividing the circle of 360 Deg into eigths and thirds and quarters which makes up the Gann emblem . This emblem represents the 360 deg of the zodiac and the important plannetary aspects that form within the wheel . Trine which is 33.3 66.6  100  , the square which represents 90 180 270 360  . these are the important geometric aspects that occur within the 12 signs of 360 Deg .  21st March is the start of the year at 0 Deg Aries  where the sun crosses the ecliptic at the March 21st Vernal Equinox  180 deg or opposite this point is Sept 23rd which is also 90 Deg in longitude from June 21st . The earth completes one revolution every 24 hours moving 360 deg in longitude therefore one hour of Civil Time is equivalent to 15 deg in longitude . this is demonstrated on the square of nine which is divided up into 24 increments of 15 deg so at the 90 deg point or 0 Deg Cancer you have moved 6 hours in longitude ( 6 x 15 deg ) with every 15 deg being the equivalent to one hour , then at the 180 deg point or 0 Deg Libra we have moved 12 hours in longitude and would look for price aspects at 90 deg 120 deg or 180 deg from our position . The square of nine is a very complicated timing instrument and can be used across several timing zones . 
Ganns work on Civil Time looks at the important time cycles like 60 years which is 720 Deg Saturn or two full revolutions of the planet . then the 50 year cycle or jubilee cycle a time of wiping debts clean , and then the other minor cycles like 10 years 5 years moving down to 90 day and 45 day cycles . The Geometric Angles according to Time are all laid out in his course and this area within itself can also get quite complicated depending upon which instrument is being charted and what timing and price scales are assigned . Say if you were trading Gold at 1.00 per mth time and price would be squared on the 45 Deg angle at 100.00 in 100 mths . these angles would be projected out from significant points and looked at against other factors such as the expiry of a large time cycle or conversion of multiple cycles into a central point . The mechanical applications of Gann certainly provide a sound foundation and alot of aspiring Gann students just overlook the basic principles and dont do the hard work which is why Gann didnt get along with his soon and pass on the knowledge , apparently his son used to sit in the office and make paper aeroplanes much to Ganns amuesment .


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## Boggo

I have yet to see one Gann 'practitioner' actually post a potential winning trade either long or short, lots of other stuff about what has happened in 2006 or what will happen to WPL in December 2010 etc etc.

Can some of you guys prove me wrong... please, something that stands a greater than 50% chance of making a buck in the next week or so.


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## MRC & Co

Boggo said:


> I have yet to see one Gann 'practitioner' actually post a potential winning trade either long or short, lots of other stuff about what has happened in 2006 or what will happen to WPL in December 2010 etc etc.
> 
> Can some of you guys prove me wrong... please, something that stands a greater than 50% chance of making a buck in the next week or so.




Yes, a profitable Gann trader does proove to be elusive, but Boggo, you know as well as I do, these Qs you pose don't 'proove' a thing.

A winning trade won't proove a better than 50% chance and a 50% chance won't proove a thing if you are trying to run winners with tight stops.

Just more of the gray that is the markets.


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## gazelle

Over the next few months once  I will try and post some trades and charts once I get back into the swing of things excuse the punn . Yogi I have a question for you regarding The Astrological Letters .

Dec 2nd 1953 May Soyabeans 311 1/4 high which equals 18 Deg 45" pisces or 348 Deg Geo , close square or 90 Deg of Jupiter , 135 Deg to Saturn , and 120 Deg Of Uranus . these calculations work out correctly on circle of 360 Deg . 

Dec 2nd 1953 :  

Jupiter is at 22 Gem 50" or 82.83 Deg Geo ( close square ) 
Saturn is at 4 Deg Scor 49" or 214.80 Deg Geo ( 135 deg ) 
Uranus is at 22 Deg Canc 35" or 112.59 Deg Geo ( 120 Deg ) 

The question is how does he convert 311 1/4 in to 18 Deg 45" Pisces or 348 Deg Geo , is this an intentional mistake to keep his students on track or does he mean 311 1/4 in price equals 11 Deg 15" Aquarius or 311 Deg Geo . If we use 11 Deg 15" Aquarius as the 0 Deg point the plannetary aspects do not work out and there are no significant angles


----------



## Colonel Klink

kam75 said:


> To make money trading you have to find your own edge. You have to find what works for you.  I know a lady who asks her pet parrott what shares to buy and she makes money.




Is it a Norwiegian blue?


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Colonel Klink said:


> Is it a Norwiegian blue?




Doubt it. If it was, it would be pining for the fjords, not giving stock tips.


----------



## Colonel Klink

MS+Tradesim said:


> Doubt it. If it was, it would be pining for the fjords, not giving stock tips.




But beautiful plummage, none the less.


----------



## Trader Paul

gazelle said:


> Over the next few months once  I will try and post some trades and charts once I get back into the swing of things excuse the punn . Yogi I have a question for you regarding The Astrological Letters .
> 
> Dec 2nd 1953 May Soyabeans 311 1/4 high which equals 18 Deg 45" pisces or 348 Deg Geo , close square or 90 Deg of Jupiter , 135 Deg to Saturn , and 120 Deg Of Uranus . these calculations work out correctly on circle of 360 Deg .
> 
> Dec 2nd 1953 :
> 
> Jupiter is at 22 Gem 50" or 82.83 Deg Geo ( close square )
> Saturn is at 4 Deg Scor 49" or 214.80 Deg Geo ( 135 deg )
> Uranus is at 22 Deg Canc 35" or 112.59 Deg Geo ( 120 Deg )
> 
> The question is how does he convert 311 1/4 in to 18 Deg 45" Pisces or 348 Deg Geo , is this an intentional mistake to keep his students on track or does he mean 311 1/4 in price equals 11 Deg 15" Aquarius or 311 Deg Geo . If we use 11 Deg 15" Aquarius as the 0 Deg point the plannetary aspects do not work out and there are no significant angles






Hi Gazelle,

..... price = 311+ degrees, aspect is precisely *144 degrees* and 
you will need to go back to previous beans charts to see the connection.

Same day 02121953 ... Moon conjunct Neptune triggers 3 other bodies,
                                Pluto, Venus, North Node.

Again, you will need to go back to previous beans charts to see the connection ..... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

Attached is a brief overview of 2009, using some of Gann's simple astroanalysis ... 

Happy trading to all, in 2009 ... !~!

have a great day

paul



=====


----------



## rub92me

Analysis that heavily relies on either astrology, the belief in a "God" or both to be successful is not for me. And all the mystical pontification and pseudo science around it puts me off as well.


----------



## gazelle

Bayer : It is very difficult for a man brought up and educated under conventional and materialistic ideas to concieve that plannetary bodies influence the collective will of man animals and plants . The Financial markets are a barometer that express  human emotion . The materialists cannot believe and understand that  unforseen forces at work for they only believe in the concrete and obvious .  everyone is wired differently and much the same breakouts and moving averages are not my cup of tea .


----------



## beachlife

I did the safety in the market course which is Gann based and lost money.

I dont use it any more, except for retracement levels which are more or less the same as Fibonacci anyway.


----------



## gazelle

SITM arent too bad although they are quite expensive . They will teach you the mechanical aspects of Gann and how to set your charts up but it depends on which course you did . You cant expect to start trading simply on the premise of a  swing chart and range retracements as outlined in the starter pack , there are many more elements involved and even then you still get it wrong .


----------



## Magdoran

Boggo said:


> I have yet to see one Gann 'practitioner' actually post a potential winning trade either long or short, lots of other stuff about what has happened in 2006 or what will happen to WPL in December 2010 etc etc.
> 
> Can some of you guys prove me wrong... please, something that stands a greater than 50% chance of making a buck in the next week or so.




Hello Boggo,

I've been out of the ASF loop for some time, but if you like and you have the time, you could study some of my ASF posts and make your own mind up.  I put a lot of work into addressing everything I thought was relevant at the time.  Try going through from the start of 2007.

I'm light years ahead of where I was then, but the core ideas I think you'd find useful, even if only to inspire you to think in different directions while discounting or accepting the points in the discussions.

I really don't have the time to comment like I did back then (had some surgery, still recovering) but thought I'd pop in and comment briefly.

Best of luck!

Mag


----------



## Trader Paul

Magdoran said:


> Hello Boggo,
> 
> I've been out of the ASF loop for some time, but if you like and you have the time, you could study some of my ASF posts and make your own mind up.  I put a lot of work into addressing everything I thought was relevant at the time.  Try going through from the start of 2007.
> 
> I'm light years ahead of where I was then, but the core ideas I think you'd find useful, even if only to inspire you to think in different directions while discounting or accepting the points in the discussions.
> 
> I really don't have the time to comment like I did back then (had some surgery, still recovering) but thought I'd pop in and comment briefly.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> Mag






..... so good to see you posting again, Mag !~!

Welcome back ... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## sails

Yes, welcome back, Mag.  Good to see you posting again even if it is briefly.  Are you still in the US?

Sorry to hear you've had surgery and wish you a speedy recovery.


----------



## Magdoran

Trader Paul said:


> ..... so good to see you posting again, Mag !~!
> 
> Welcome back ...
> 
> have a great day
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====




Hi Paul/Yogi,

Hope you are well.

Good to see you posting too!

Kind Regards

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> Yes, welcome back, Mag.  Good to see you posting again even if it is briefly.  Are you still in the US?
> 
> Sorry to hear you've had surgery and wish you a speedy recovery.




Hello Margaret,

Nice to hear from you too!

Yes, I'm still in the US, and will probably be here for a long time - my wife's family are here...

Recovering thanks, but still not 100%...

How about you?

Mag


----------



## CanOz

Good grief, its like a reunion around here today, how you doing Mag?!!

I hope you recover quickly.

CanOz


----------



## gazelle

Hello Mag ,  Greetings to you and hope you are feeling better . 
Hows The cat did you get him through customs ok ?


----------



## Chorlton

tech/a said:


> Here is a good summary of Gann.
> 
> http://www.cycletrader.com.au/cycles.htm
> 
> Confluence of analysis gives "pressure points" or points of interest going forward.
> 
> Application of analysis (any form of analysis) is to me the key to successful use of analysis.
> If you place on a chart all those confluence points of interest giong forward you will note that there are many.
> Like Elliott/Fibonacci (which are often used in conjunction with Gann) if the point doesnt hold then the next point of confluence is used.
> Its a case of prove the analysis or disprove.
> 
> In hindsite it is easy to remove all those points of confluence to reveal only the points which can be seen to have held.
> This makes ANY analysis appear very accurate. When infact when applying in realtime many if not more pressure points dont hold and are then false.
> 
> Gann has more of these points in its analysis arsenal than any other form of analysis I have found.
> 
> I have watched a few "Good" Practitioners and my observations have been that their success rate is no better than anyone elses.




Totally Agree with the above !!!

Last Year I attended a Trading & Investment Expo in Melbourne. One of the Exhibitors there was selling their own "software" which was basically a charting package that included Gann Trading Applications!!! To try to entice people to purchase their software, they had employed a gentleman to go over recent trades which he had personally taken using Gann Methods.

Interestingly, (as Tech/A has mentioned above) he actually ignored specific pressure/turning points and focused instead on those which offered a favourable R:R outcome. The general crowd were impressed!! However, what was more interesting (to me anyway) was that these "favourable" points were also at either "key" support & resistance levels or levels at which volume & previous price action suggested a break-out in a particular direction.

As some of the audience reached for their cheque books to buy the software I walked away wondering to what extent the Gann Analysis had really contributed to the outcome of those trades.....


----------



## Magdoran

CanOz said:


> Good grief, its like a reunion around here today, how you doing Mag?!!
> 
> I hope you recover quickly.
> 
> CanOz



Hi CanOz,

Long time between drinks huh?  Good to see you are still around!

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

gazelle said:


> Hello Mag ,  Greetings to you and hope you are feeling better .
> Hows The cat did you get him through customs ok ?



Hi Gazelle,

Both got through fine thanks, although one was dazed for a few days - it's a long flight.

I see you've really focused on the astro style.  Interesting, is it working for you?

Have you been in contact with SpinDR of late?

Good to hear from you!

Mag


----------



## gazelle

Glad to hear you have settled in . Enjoy your time and take care of yourself & family .  
Regards Gazelle


----------



## Grinder

Hey Mag,

Nice surprise to see you pop in for a post. You still trading options?

All the best on the recovery.


----------



## ducati916

*Magdoran*

Ever heard of this chap?

As you will see this interviewee lives in New Zealand. Lake Taupo to be specific. Beautiful area, in the winter lots of skiing to be had, in the summer sailing etc on the lake. Anyway, read this interview.

John Needham is a well known and highly regarded author and market analyst in Australasia, who lives and works by the shore of Lake Taupo, New Zealand, over 8,300 air miles from Chicago. Mr. Needham, through extensive research, has demystified Chapter 12 of the Bible’s Old Testament Book of Daniel, using proprietary algorithms to convert the biblical “time” referenced into “price” point indicator for support and resistance levels of a market. Mr. Needham, a Solicitor of the Supreme Court of NSW, Australia, is the owner of Danielcode Online that offers market educational and consulting services as well as a charting, FX advisory, and managed account programs.
John Gallwas: Tell our readers a little about yourself and what events may have precipitated your interest in the financial markets and trading. 

John Needham: I was Chairman of two publicly traded companies when I was in my late 20s and I had quite an involvement with the Sydney Stock Exchange where the then Chairman and his family were family friends. My father was Chairman and CEO of another publicly traded company, the Manly Ferries, so stock prices and markets were always part of the family discussion. When I started my law practice I specialised in commercial law with a lot of corporate M&A activity, so that too kept me thinking about markets. 

John Gallwas: What led you to the discovery of the algorithms that convert details contained in the Book of Daniel to what is now known as the Daniel Code? 

John Needham: I became interested in trading financial markets 20 years ago. As a lawyer I assumed that I could learn trading techniques the same way so as I had learned the law so I embarked on the well worn route of buying every trading book I could and going to numerous seminars all over the world to be “taught” how to trade. Seven years, $200,000 USD, and 400 flying hours later the realisation struck me that either I was inordinately stupid or there was something radically wrong with my teachers because I still couldn’t trade profitably. About this time a very famous trading “guru” who can still be seen on financial television shows came into my Australian law office. He was involved in some unpleasant litigation in Melbourne, Australia and wanted me to handle his case. 

At the time as I was issuing writs in the Supreme Court on his behalf and incurring costs in my law office I asked him give me a retainer, but he said he didn’t have the money!! Here was this “guru”, on TV every week, giving his view on markets and teaching people like me how to trade, that couldn’t pay my fees. The penny dropped with me then, and I concluded that none of the research including; Gann, Elliott Wave, patterns, mechanical indicators etc were going to help me become a successful trader. 

I packed away the books, charts, whirling numbers, overlays, fancy computer programs and the rest of the detritus I had accumulated in my fruitless search for knowledge in trading and for two years suspended my market research. But, gradually it dawned on me that I should think about the thing I knew; the law. “Why” I asked “is the law so certain. How is it we know what is legal and illegal?” The answer to that question is actually the answer to everything else. 

Where do you suppose that our system of laws came from? Whether you think of yourself as religious or not, if you live in a western democracy you are living under a code of “common” law also called “Biblical” laws. So as people turn to the law for guidance, this lawyer turned to the source of our laws, the Bible. And as promised, there it was in Chapter 12 “The Book of Daniel”. 

John Gallwas: How is the Daniel Code different from the other “indicators” that we are familiar with, and how can it be used to structure trading signals? 

John Needham: The Daniel numbers are leading indicators as opposed to almost all other market tools which are lagging indicators, and this distinction is not generally known to market participants, which is important. In addition, the Daniel number sequence is not anther variation of any known market analysis methodology because it is based on number sequences that are thousands of years old. Finally the trading method we use is reasonably short term (1-3) days. Based on our experience, we believe that about 85% of market turns are made very close to the Daniel numbers. However, it requires analytical skills on the part of the trader to be able to distinguish between a code numbers that recognizes a Daniel price level and code numbers that will turn the market. 

John Gallwas: What services do you currently offer through the Daniel Code Online? 

John Needham: The main function of Danielcode-Online is to provide the Daniel number sequences on a variety of markets. We cover a wide variety of cash and futures markets as well as 17 Forex pairs. We provide weekly and daily charts on these markets as well as some shorter term charts on selected markets. There are also time-turn indicators. The basic service is available for traders and is used by them in making their own trading decisions. For those that don’t have the inclination or are unwilling to take the time necessary to actively monitor the trading indicators, a managed trading program using the Daniel numbers for the cash Forex markets is exclusively available through Striker Securities. For your readers we have arranged a free trial to the Daniel Code Online that can be accessed at our website www.thedanielcode.com by registering and using the code “strikertrial”. 

John Gallwas: Is there anything in “What’s New” that you can share with our readers at this time? 

John Needham: To our knowledge no one else had discovered our algorithms to decipher the numbers found in the Book of Daniel. Whilst we have used it for private trading and for a handful of private clients for some years, the trading world only heard about it in December 2007, when we decided to make the Daniel Code available to other traders. The Daniel Code website, (see above) covers the basic approach to trading the Daniel numbers. The Trading Reports tab shows some of the trading results that the Daniel Code has achieved including some historic calls in forex markets. In addition the articles we have written for the “Financial Sense” report detail the discovery and development of the algorithms and their applications to a wide range of markets. We can say that the Daniel Code is new, unique and we think your readers will find it both challenging and amazing. 

Ok, if you’ve read this far, and not yet consigned this guy to the nut-house, you might actually want to give this a try. If you do, boy, have I deal for you. For an undisclosed length of time, as long as his marketing campaign lasts I guess, you can try this methodology for free. Never say you get nothing for free here. Go to the link http://thedanielcode.com/display.php?nav=register

Now, if you try it, and it’s the dogs bollocks…you must let me know, and I’ll personally drive down south to Taupo and meet this guy.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

I posted this previously...

Gann is a very hot topic in other areas of the world when any discussion of Technical Analysis is tabled. Australia & the UK both have ardent adherents who will post charts that simply boggle the brain to try and figure out even where the closing price actually is [I’ll find one later to update this post]

I have seen little interest shown in the US, Ganns home country, so it will be interesting to see if there are any practitioners on this site.

Bachelier is also the prime driving theory behind “Efficient Market Theory”

With regards to Gannism;
Gannism is esoteric, not easily understood, possibly highly discretionary, and thus always viewed with suspicion.

As to the origins of the time theory element to Gannism the following caught my attention.

In 1913, a PhD was published by Bachelier in France, and demonstrated via rather complex mathematical equations that, price fluctuations grow in range and will be proportional to the square root of time

Stock prices in the United States over the last 100 years have 66% of the time fluctuated within a range of 5.9% on either side of their average.
The range in a course of a year has not been 72% or a multiple of 12 [year] rather, it has averaged around 20%

This is 3.5 times the monthly range.
The square root of 12 = 3.46

Therefore, while I know very little about Ganns methodology, certainly the evidence is overwhelming in regards to the element of time in being an important factor and consideration.
An article, that relates to Gann angles quotes the following;
quote:

________________________________________
But exactly just what did Mr Gann write about angles? For anyone with an original Gann course, if they will turn to the first page of the section titled The Basis of My Forecasting Method, looking at line 10 from the bottom; they will read the following quote. “There are three kinds of angles-the vertical, the horizontal, and the diagonal, which we use for measuring time and price movements.” Today every usage called “Gann angles” uses “diagonal angles” only. Yet the Master says we must use all three angles-the vertical angle, the horizontal angle, the diagonal Angle. Definitely not the last and least important, the diagonal angle alone.

Interestingly, this is another application of higher mathematics, referring to chaos

This is chaos in the mathematical definition, not your standard day-to-day useage.

In it’s simplest form chaos can be written;
4x{1 - x}
Computing the value of *x* of that expression for some initial value of *x* then substituting this answer back into the original expression starts a feedback loop.

Repeating this simple iterative process repetitively produces surprisingly complex, unpredictable mathematical behaviour.

The mathematical behaviour expresses the same kind of disorder produced by non-linear equations

The simplest non-linear equation;
Xn+1 = KXn - KXn(1 - Xn)

This equation determines the future value of the variable x at the time step n + 1 from the past value of x at time step n

This is known as the logistic equation
All well and good, but, what the hell is this to do with the Gannies?

Logistic equations are used in Medicine to predict population expansion, via Birth rates, Death rates, due in part to availability of food, water, arable land, disease etc.

It can also be used in ecology, for populations of insects, crops, etc.
Gann was interested in commodities.
Wait, there’s more.

The logistic equation is a quadratic equation with a linear first term, and, a non-linear second term

It is the non-linear, or feedback component that is important.

For a given value of K once a starting point Xo is specified, the evolution of the system is fully determined. One step, inexorably leads to the next.
The whole process can be pictured on a graph.

It forms a parabola, that opens downwards.
There is a short-cut provided via the graphical representation, that avoids endless computations.

Re-read the quote at the start of this post;

The addition of a 45 degree line up from the horizontal axis [representing the line Xn+1 = Xn]
The best course is to steer is from Xo vertically to the parabola to reach X1 then horizontally to the 45 degree line, and vertically back to the parabola.

These paths or Orbits give the first indication of which routes lead to the erratic behaviour of chaos

Whereas some orbits converge, on one particular value, others jump back and forth among a few possible values, and many roam, never settling anywhere.

When K is between 1 & 3, just about every route no matter where it starts, is eventually attracted to a specific value called a fixed point which occurs where the parabola intersects the 45 degree line at x = [k - 1]/k This corresponds to to a steady state or equilibrium

Therefore, taking the previous mathematical work performed by Bachelier, combined with a logistic equation, and you can reproduce seemingly Gann.

The question is, historically, who, and at what date, was the initial work completed in logistic equations?

How did Astrology get involved?
Mathematicians have always historically been associated with planetary movements orbits etc.

Then we have Kondratieff and the macro-wave. There are smaller waves that correlate to the smaller business cycle waves, for example Jugler cycles. I’ll explore business cycles in greater detail.

The takeaway point is this; much work on markets, in any timeframe is cyclical in nature, with the down or destructive phases being essential for upswings, with the upswings responsible for the downswings.

When the swings are artificially manipulated, strange things happen.

jog on
duc


----------



## bunyip

The late Neil Costa spoke at an ATAA meeting quite a few years back when he was working for Safety In The Market. 

It was about March or April from memory, can't recall what year it was. Based on his Gann calculations, he said the All Ords would rise almost until the end of that year, then before Christmas we'd see 'the mother of all crashes'. He named a figure that the market would fall to.
The market finished the year more than 600 points higher than his forecast, and 'the mother of all crashes' never materialised.
He also gave forecasts of numerous 'time by degrees' dates for the remainder of that year. The market was supposed to have certain reactions on these dates. I wrote all of them down and followed them throughout the year to see how accurate he was. Suffice to say that he didn't even come close to achieving worthwhile accuracy.

This was a bloke who had a reputation as being one of Australia's foremost Gann experts, working for David Bowden whose ads boldly proclaimed _*'Learn from the best in the world'. *_
People were outlaying around 25 grand for the series of courses run by Safety in The Market.
Bowden sold millions of dollars worth of courses, but was happy to let people believe he'd made his money trading the commodity markets.

When Costa left Safety in The Market and started his own trading education outfit, he did an about face and denounced as con artists the people who sell courses that teach methods of forecasting financial markets. He didn't bother to mention that he himself was one of those people not so long ago.

I am yet to see anyone demonstrate that Gann trading methodology offers the sort of advantages that translate into sensational trading profits, or even gives any advantage over standard technical analysis techniques such as trading off support and resistance, trading from chart patterns, riding trends etc.
And let's face it.....sensational trading profits are exactly we could achieve if only we could find a method of accurately and consistently predicting the markets.


----------



## Sicilian Trader

interesting read bunyip, i too heard something similar only recently

it just amazes me how an educational outfit can charge 25g when there is a range of material free or at a fraction of that price

I have had some dealings with safety in the market in the past and i am not entirely convinced about them either

its interesting you mention david bowden, he doesnt have a publicly available trading record and i would also argue than 95% of his wealth has come from educational courses

reading about everyone's successes, failures and general trading pursuits on this forum spanning over several years, i find it incredibly hard to believe that the likes of a SITM can turn an everyday joe blow, into a well round professional trader in x amount of months when so many people here have been trading for so many years and still dont make a consistent profit year on year 

also, the amount of forecasts and predictions that have appeared on these forums that have been subsequently be wrong, simply amazes me. What is even more astounding is these same people jump on the forum the next day and make a similar bogus prediction without acknowledging their previously mistaken prediction, not even an explanation of it.

Surely if one makes 100 predictions, 5 or 6 have to be right. And even if they are right, what are chances that that same person is putting their money where their mouth is, knowing full well that they have been wrong the vast majority of the time --- i would argue very little chance. So what is the point?

Like all healthly discussions, I welcome any arguments on the contrary , supported of course with evidence. 

Also, has anyone had any recent experiences with safety in the market that they would like to share with others, whilst we are on the topic?


----------



## bunyip

I've seen quite a bit of the Safety In The Market material through mates who did all the SITM courses. My dentist was one of them. None of them were consistently profitable from trading the Gann methodology. That doesn't necessarily prove that Gann methods don't work....maybe they weren't applying them correctly. 
But when seven or eight different people tell you they could never produce consistent profits despite spending 25 grand on Gann courses - well, you have to wonder how much validity the method has.
I know people who challenged David Bowden to make his trading statements available to prove his trading ability. I was one of them who personally emailed him. He never responded to any of us.
Larry Williams challenged Bowden to back up his claim of 'Learn from the best in the world', by offering to engage him in a trading contest. Bowden didn't take up the challenge.
The oldest trick in the world for market forecasters who want to try and gain some credibility, is to make lots of forecasts, then heavily publicise the few that come true. My contacts claimed that's what Bowden used to do, although personally I didn't see it.
I know a few traders who did both David Bowden's courses, and also courses by Bill McLaren who has quite a reputation as a Gann expert. They said McLaren's material was far more useful, not to mention a lot cheaper, than SITM's material.

I'd be the biggest Gann fan in the world if the method could reliably tell me in advance what any market was going to do. But the fact is that it can't do that consistently. I saw it again and again when I went in for dentist appointments, and my dentist would haul me into the back room where he had three big tables arranged side by side, one touching the other, and hand-drawn Gann charts all over the tables. Some of these charts were ten or twelve feet long, and were comprised of several charts stuck together with sticky tape. When price went off a chart, he'd stick another chart to it so that he could continue the chart uninterrupted.
He had lines drawn all over these charts, I think he called them Gann lines or Gann angles or something similar. He'd point to a line and say _'the market should change direction when it gets to this line, but if it doesn't, then we can expect it to go to this next level further up here. And if it goes straight through that line, then this next line up here should mark the turning point'._
This all seemed a bit airy fairy to me....a bit like predicting rain for next Friday, but if there's no rain on Friday then Sunday is the next likely rainy day, and if not Sunday then let's try next Tuesday.
Time and again I saw the market go straight through those lines on the chart without even missing a beat. On the odd occasion that price did in fact turn at one of these predetermined levels, I couldn't see any real advantage to be gained. You can trade profitably simply be reacting to what the market is doing, rather than trying to predict what it might do in future.

My dentist told me about a dentist friend of his who was making 5 grand a week by using the Gann Square of Nine to trade the SPI. About six months or so later I asked him how the other dentist was going, was he still making 5 grand a week. He told me the other bloke was no longer trading. Presumably he crashed and burned. 
Here again, this doesn't prove that the Square of Nine is not a valid trading technique. But I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly over the years with Gann exponents.....one minute they're making a fortune from trading the Gann Square of Nine or the Square of 144 or Time By Degrees, or some other Gann technique. Next time I talk to them six months or a year later, they're no longer trading.

Perhaps some of the Gann traders can post charts on here that clearly demonstrate how the method lives up to its claim of being able to accurately predict markets.
 If they can do that, or if they can demonstrate in some way how Gann technique can be used to gain a very clear edge that translates into significantly improved trading profitability, then I'll be happy to change my views on the usefulness of Gann analysis.


----------



## Boggo

bunyip said:


> I'd be the biggest Gann fan in the world if the method could reliably tell me in advance what any market was going to do. But the fact is that it can't do that consistently.
> 
> Perhaps some of the Gann traders can post charts on here that clearly demonstrate how the method lives up to its claim of being able to accurately predict markets.
> If they can do that, or if they can demonstrate in some way how Gann technique can be used to gain a very clear edge that translates into significantly improved trading profitability, then I'll be happy to change my views on the usefulness of Gann analysis.




bunyip, that was what I asked a while ago on page 1 of this thread and no examples were forthcoming.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13871

I was genuinely interested in trying some of the methods but needed some potential long or short trades to use as an example of entry using daily data.

I know that as an amateur with EW I can still make a buck as it throws up daily potential long and short trades (WBC ?) but I cannot yet identify or find anyone to provide an example where Gann does the same.

There is some free Gann software (it was only available for a cost) on this site http://www.gannalyst.com/
Not sure I can be bothered though as I have yet to see an example where I can apply a potential entry, stop and R/R process to the theory but I am still open to input.


----------



## bunyip

Boggo said:


> bunyip, that was what I asked a while ago on page 1 of this thread and no examples were forthcoming.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13871
> 
> I was genuinely interested in trying some of the methods but needed some potential long or short trades to use as an example of entry using daily data.
> 
> I know that as an amateur with EW I can still make a buck as it throws up daily potential long and short trades (WBC ?) but I cannot yet identify or find anyone to provide an example where Gann does the same.
> 
> There is some free Gann software (it was only available for a cost) on this site http://www.gannalyst.com/
> Not sure I can be bothered though as I have yet to see an example where I can apply a potential entry, stop and R/R process to the theory but I am still open to input.




The big winners from Gann would appear to be those who sell Gann courses. 
A method of accurately and consistently predicting the markets is the sort of stuff that traders dream about. 
Little wonder then that so many dodgy outfits have sprung up that purport to teach us how to be Gann super traders with incredible market forecasting ability.
Little wonder that so many people swallow the bait and flock to pay big money for these courses that frequently turn out to be largely a waste of money.


----------



## Magdoran

ducati916 said:


> *Magdoran*
> 
> Ever heard of this chap? ...
> 
> Now, if you try it, and it’s the dogs bollocks…you must let me know, and I’ll personally drive down south to Taupo and meet this guy.
> 
> jog on
> duc



Hi Duc!

How are you?  Nice to see you're still around.

The answer is no, I haven't heard of this guy.

"The Daniel Code" sounds dubious to me.  I could be wrong, but it sounds like another "dog and pony show" to me, set up to prey on the unwitting people trying to learn how to trade/invest, ripe to be plucked by the course sellers.

If I had the time I'd probe it a bit, but honestly my intuition is that this is not a good candidate to find much if anything of value.

So, how is NZ treating you?  Shame we couldn't meet up when I wad flying over the pacific.  Unfortunately my pst file corrupted, and all the backups failed probably due to the move.  Hope you still have my email address.

Anyway, Duc, I'd suggest not putting too much effort into this one.  Nice to hear from you!

Kind Regards

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

bunyip said:


> The late Neil Costa spoke at an ATAA meeting quite a few years back when he was working for Safety In The Market.
> 
> It was about March or April from memory, can't recall what year it was. Based on his Gann calculations, he said the All Ords would rise almost until the end of that year, then before Christmas we'd see 'the mother of all crashes'. He named a figure that the market would fall to.
> The market finished the year more than 600 points higher than his forecast, and 'the mother of all crashes' never materialised.
> He also gave forecasts of numerous 'time by degrees' dates for the remainder of that year. The market was supposed to have certain reactions on these dates. I wrote all of them down and followed them throughout the year to see how accurate he was. Suffice to say that he didn't even come close to achieving worthwhile accuracy.
> 
> This was a bloke who had a reputation as being one of Australia's foremost Gann experts, working for David Bowden whose ads boldly proclaimed _*'Learn from the best in the world'. *_
> People were outlaying around 25 grand for the series of courses run by Safety in The Market.
> Bowden sold millions of dollars worth of courses, but was happy to let people believe he'd made his money trading the commodity markets.
> 
> When Costa left Safety in The Market and started his own trading education outfit, he did an about face and denounced as con artists the people who sell courses that teach methods of forecasting financial markets. He didn't bother to mention that he himself was one of those people not so long ago.
> 
> I am yet to see anyone demonstrate that Gann trading methodology offers the sort of advantages that translate into sensational trading profits, or even gives any advantage over standard technical analysis techniques such as trading off support and resistance, trading from chart patterns, riding trends etc.
> And let's face it.....sensational trading profits are exactly we could achieve if only we could find a method of accurately and consistently predicting the markets.



Hello Bunyip!

Long time no see.  Amazing who is coming out of the "woodwork".  Hope you are well.

I tend to agree with your estimation here about Neil Costa and David Bowden.

However, I still think McLaren's work is worthwhile as we discussed a few years ago.

I think you are spot on though that reading the chart is at the heart of good technical analysis irrespective of what you "bolt on" to it.  I suppose this comes down to personal preference, doesn't it?

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

bunyip said:


> I've seen quite a bit of the Safety In The Market material through mates who did all the SITM courses. My dentist was one of them. None of them were consistently profitable from trading the Gann methodology. That doesn't necessarily prove that Gann methods don't work....maybe they weren't applying them correctly.
> But when seven or eight different people tell you they could never produce consistent profits despite spending 25 grand on Gann courses - well, you have to wonder how much validity the method has.
> I know people who challenged David Bowden to make his trading statements available to prove his trading ability. I was one of them who personally emailed him. He never responded to any of us.
> Larry Williams challenged Bowden to back up his claim of 'Learn from the best in the world', by offering to engage him in a trading contest. Bowden didn't take up the challenge.
> The oldest trick in the world for market forecasters who want to try and gain some credibility, is to make lots of forecasts, then heavily publicise the few that come true. My contacts claimed that's what Bowden used to do, although personally I didn't see it.
> I know a few traders who did both David Bowden's courses, and also courses by Bill McLaren who has quite a reputation as a Gann expert. They said McLaren's material was far more useful, not to mention a lot cheaper, than SITM's material.
> 
> I'd be the biggest Gann fan in the world if the method could reliably tell me in advance what any market was going to do. But the fact is that it can't do that consistently. I saw it again and again when I went in for dentist appointments, and my dentist would haul me into the back room where he had three big tables arranged side by side, one touching the other, and hand-drawn Gann charts all over the tables. Some of these charts were ten or twelve feet long, and were comprised of several charts stuck together with sticky tape. When price went off a chart, he'd stick another chart to it so that he could continue the chart uninterrupted.
> He had lines drawn all over these charts, I think he called them Gann lines or Gann angles or something similar. He'd point to a line and say _'the market should change direction when it gets to this line, but if it doesn't, then we can expect it to go to this next level further up here. And if it goes straight through that line, then this next line up here should mark the turning point'._
> This all seemed a bit airy fairy to me....a bit like predicting rain for next Friday, but if there's no rain on Friday then Sunday is the next likely rainy day, and if not Sunday then let's try next Tuesday.
> Time and again I saw the market go straight through those lines on the chart without even missing a beat. On the odd occasion that price did in fact turn at one of these predetermined levels, I couldn't see any real advantage to be gained. You can trade profitably simply be reacting to what the market is doing, rather than trying to predict what it might do in future.
> 
> My dentist told me about a dentist friend of his who was making 5 grand a week by using the Gann Square of Nine to trade the SPI. About six months or so later I asked him how the other dentist was going, was he still making 5 grand a week. He told me the other bloke was no longer trading. Presumably he crashed and burned.
> Here again, this doesn't prove that the Square of Nine is not a valid trading technique. But I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly over the years with Gann exponents.....one minute they're making a fortune from trading the Gann Square of Nine or the Square of 144 or Time By Degrees, or some other Gann technique. Next time I talk to them six months or a year later, they're no longer trading.
> 
> Perhaps some of the Gann traders can post charts on here that clearly demonstrate how the method lives up to its claim of being able to accurately predict markets.
> If they can do that, or if they can demonstrate in some way how Gann technique can be used to gain a very clear edge that translates into significantly improved trading profitability, then I'll be happy to change my views on the usefulness of Gann analysis.



Hello Bunyip,

Interesting to see you re-emerge after so long.

All:  

Bunyip in my view is a highly experienced and very seasoned trader.  For the record I tend to agree with the majority of his viewpoints.  It is mainly on this one topic that we have alternative opinions.  Hence, I'm not about to get involved in a full scale polemic (I'm just not up to it physically right now).  That doesn't mean that the valid points raised in our previous discussions are any less applicable now (Bunyip and I had an interesting range of exchanges a few years ago).

Bunyip:

What I'd really love to see is for you to post a range of trades in advance on ASF with running commentaries.  That would be great to see your style in action too!  Would you please consider doing this as wavepicker and I did in the past? (Have you forgotten all the posts that wavepicker and I posted with numerous charts and information in advance and in detail with full commentary, even addressing when we got it wrong, and identified what the failure criteria was?)

I suppose my point is that no one will get it right every time because we are dealing with probability, but I know several people who can make very accurate calls, but they are a minority.  

The point is that if you "stick your neck out" and post calls in advance, you've got to get it wrong sometimes.  I'd like to reverse the idea of the majority of calls being wrong, and then only highlighting the good ones when it comes to some traders.  Respectfully wavepicker and I made strong comments when we thought we had high probability trades on, often in the face of criticism from the majority.  I think on the whole we did pretty well actually.  People will make up their own minds on this topic I'm sure.

You're right though, there are a lot of people who try to study various schools of Gann and have no success doing it.  I also agree that most of the Gann courses are bunk.  They are.  I also agree with you that this does not necessarily mean that there is no value in Gann ideas.  I think there is, but it is very difficult to understand, and frankly the majority just don't get it.  So in most cases it's probably not suitable for the majority, so I agree with your sentiment here.

On specifics:
Square of 9 - agree, think this is a waste of time (pun intended!).
Time by degrees - not too keen on this either.
Square of 144 -probably, if you understand it, arguably the most important concept to the time cycle approach.
Gann Angles - very involved subject, some ideas here are nonsense (probably the ones you've seen), but time angles per McLaren are VERY powerful once you comprehend them, but they are very involved to work out and use (but accessible in McLaren's course work).

Now as for convincing you of anything Bunyip, I think if your interest in this subject wasn't piqued by wavepicker's and my work when we were discussing it with you, then I don't know what would else would.  I thought we pretty much agreed to a "whatever works for you" approach.  I think you have some sound ideas.  If you cannot see any value in my work, that is fine, and I respect your opinion.  

What I would think would be fair though is for you to publish as we did openly, in detail, in advance, and with running commentary, and with postmortems to help others learn from your experience.  I think there are many who could greatly benefit from you wisdom!

Great to see you posting again.

Warm Regards

Magdoran

_P.S. All:

Please don't pigeonhole me as a "Gannist"  because I'm not.  I have a "magpie mind" and use good ideas irrespective of where they came from.  I'm focused on evolving my style and pioneering new ideas.  

I just happen to think that there are bits of Gann that make a lot of sense.  But I also think there is a lot of chaff in the works, and possibly deliberate "red herrings", hence the controversy.  

The difference with me though is that I've been prepared to wade through torrents of nonsense put out by all sorts of people on trading/investing for years from a range of different viewpoints - fundamental analysis, technical analysis of all flavours, systems, theories, psychology etc etc.

My aim has been to highlight potentially useful viewpoints, and that's about the size of it..._


----------



## Magdoran

Boggo said:


> bunyip, that was what I asked a while ago on page 1 of this thread and no examples were forthcoming.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13871
> 
> I was genuinely interested in trying some of the methods but needed some potential long or short trades to use as an example of entry using daily data.
> 
> I know that as an amateur with EW I can still make a buck as it throws up daily potential long and short trades (WBC ?) but I cannot yet identify or find anyone to provide an example where Gann does the same.
> 
> There is some free Gann software (it was only available for a cost) on this site http://www.gannalyst.com/
> Not sure I can be bothered though as I have yet to see an example where I can apply a potential entry, stop and R/R process to the theory but I am still open to input.



Boggo,

Did you miss my reply to you?  

I am not in a position to comment as I did in the past, but I did post profusely for a while, and you might find some of the points useful, even if it is to determine not to accept them.  

If you are sincerely interested in looking at this, then please read through the work.

Kind Regards

Mag


----------



## tech/a

*Moggie/Waves*

Been a detractor of Gann---no surprise.

But have come to the conclusion its a bit like any analysis a matter of analysis being right at a point of time or proven wrong.
If wrong move on to the next.

What Ive found is that there are so many "pressure points" that its totally impractical to trade them all.
A chart with Gann analysis on it can be pretty busy!

So if people can trade profitably from it then only they know whether they are and whether it works for them.
Me-------I prefer other analysis.


----------



## bunyip

Magdoran said:


> Hello Bunyip!
> 
> Long time no see.  Amazing who is coming out of the "woodwork".  Hope you are well.
> 
> I tend to agree with your estimation here about Neil Costa and David Bowden.
> 
> However, I still think McLaren's work is worthwhile as we discussed a few years ago.
> 
> I think you are spot on though that reading the chart is at the heart of good technical analysis irrespective of what you "bolt on" to it.  I suppose this comes down to personal preference, doesn't it?
> 
> Mag




Well now Mag -  I'm not sure why you think I've re-emerged from the woodwork. I've been posting on here all along. It's you who has suddenly come out of the woodwork.

This thread is about Gann's methodology, not mine. 
Occasionally I swap notes with a couple of fellow Forex traders, but mostly I prefer to be a lone wolf when it comes to trading.
I have no interest in posting my trades on  here. I'm not trying to convince anyone that I can trade. I don't have a big ego that needs satisfying. I don't need other people to critique my methods. I have very little inclination to educate others. I feel no need to prove myself or my methods to anyone except myself. As long as my trading account is steadily increasing, that's proof enough for me.
I've outlined my trading strategies in various posts. If anyone thinks those strategies may have some merit, they're free to do their own research to prove or disprove their validity.

I agree that McLaren's work has something to offer. But then he's not entirely Gann either.


----------



## Boggo

Magdoran said:


> Boggo,
> 
> Did you miss my reply to you?
> 
> Kind Regards
> 
> Mag




No I didn't Mag, sorry, I should have gotten back to you.
I am working my way through yours and a few other posts on the subject, also going through the Gannalyst manual.

I have not seen SITM course but I am finding it difficult to find that something that I can apply on a daily basis.

I have probably been somewhat spoiled by the way that Robert Miner teaches Elliott Wave and by the way that people like Radge and a few other posters on here can apply it.

Will get back to you if I have any specific queries.

Thanks Mag
Cheers


----------



## ducati916

Magdoran said:


> Hi Duc!
> 
> How are you?  Nice to see you're still around.
> 
> The answer is no, I haven't heard of this guy.
> 
> "The Daniel Code" sounds dubious to me.  I could be wrong, but it sounds like another "dog and pony show" to me, set up to prey on the unwitting people trying to learn how to trade/invest, ripe to be plucked by the course sellers.
> 
> If I had the time I'd probe it a bit, but honestly my intuition is that this is not a good candidate to find much if anything of value.
> 
> So, how is NZ treating you?  Shame we couldn't meet up when I wad flying over the pacific.  Unfortunately my pst file corrupted, and all the backups failed probably due to the move.  Hope you still have my email address.
> 
> Anyway, Duc, I'd suggest not putting too much effort into this one.  Nice to hear from you!
> 
> Kind Regards
> 
> Mag




*Magdoran*

I still have your Australian e-mail address, if that is still a valid one. Indeed, we missed a couple of opportunities, there'll be others I'm sure.

I'm still around, mostly on my blog, not that often on the straight forums anymore, unless the content catches my interest.

You mean to tell me that the Bible [Daniel Code] is a load of cobblers? Obviously you are a heretic, and will be burned at the fundamentalist Christian stake...or the KKK will track you down.

Could you have timed a move to the US at a worse time...or did you already know?

jog on
duc


----------



## Magdoran

bunyip said:


> Well now Mag -  I'm not sure why you think I've re-emerged from the woodwork. I've been posting on here all along. It's you who has suddenly come out of the woodwork.
> 
> This thread is about Gann's methodology, not mine.
> Occasionally I swap notes with a couple of fellow Forex traders, but mostly I prefer to be a lone wolf when it comes to trading.
> I have no interest in posting my trades on  here. I'm not trying to convince anyone that I can trade. I don't have a big ego that needs satisfying. I don't need other people to critique my methods. I have very little inclination to educate others. I feel no need to prove myself or my methods to anyone except myself. As long as my trading account is steadily increasing, that's proof enough for me.
> I've outlined my trading strategies in various posts. If anyone thinks those strategies may have some merit, they're free to do their own research to prove or disprove their validity.
> 
> I agree that McLaren's work has something to offer. But then he's not entirely Gann either.



Hello Bunyip,

Apologies, didn't mean to offend.  I respect your decision to compartmentalise your life and trade as a lone wolf as you see fit - totally your choice.  I was curious to see your analysis since you've shown yourself to be a consummate trader - I'm always interested in new ideas and inspiration.  But I acknowledge your choice.

By the way, my comment about coming out of the woodwork was to do with commenting on the "old hoary chestnut" of Gann, not about posting in general.  I certainly have been out of the loop for some time that is true, and will not have much time to post, so this is a brief friendly reminiscence.

Personally I find I need more than trading to keep me happy.  It is fun, but not the center of my universe, albeit one of my passions.  I've been getting inspiration composing Music again, and building an IT organization in the US (despite the downturn), and writing too, which keeps me busy.  Trading is fiscally rewarding, but I find making music soothes the soul, and I like the personal contact in business.

Glad to hear you are doing well.

Kind Regards

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

ducati916 said:


> *Magdoran*
> 
> I still have your Australian e-mail address, if that is still a valid one. Indeed, we missed a couple of opportunities, there'll be others I'm sure.
> 
> I'm still around, mostly on my blog, not that often on the straight forums anymore, unless the content catches my interest.
> 
> You mean to tell me that the Bible [Daniel Code] is a load of cobblers? Obviously you are a heretic, and will be burned at the fundamentalist Christian stake...or the KKK will track you down.
> 
> Could you have timed a move to the US at a worse time...or did you already know?
> 
> jog on
> duc



Hi Duc,

The move to the US was actually quite well timed I thought...  should see the bargains over here in the property markets, as predicted by Jim Rogers.

Unfortunately the Australian email address won't function anymore, I'll send you a PM with a new one.

Haha, a heretic huh?  That is probably my middle name in a number of ways. Yes, it sounds like bunk to me.  After a while you can smell it most times.  Occasionally I come across something inspirational though.

Best Regards

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

Grinder said:


> Hey Mag,
> 
> Nice surprise to see you pop in for a post. You still trading options?
> 
> All the best on the recovery.



Hello Grinder!

How are you?  Hope all is going well for you.  How is your search for knowledge going?

Me, I seldom trade the underlying, and prefer to use options and futures.  I try to pick liquid markets though, but it depends on the situation of course, and the risk to reward and probabilities.

Thanks for you kind words too, much appreciated.

Mag


----------



## Grinder

Mag,

I've come along way in my never ending quest for knowledge and am light years now from where I was a year or so ago. I'm still deciphering options, but they are looking more like music to me now than chopsticks.


----------



## bunyip

Magdoran said:


> Hello Bunyip,
> 
> Apologies, didn't mean to offend.  I respect your decision to compartmentalise your life and trade as a lone wolf as you see fit - totally your choice.  I was curious to see your analysis since you've shown yourself to be a consummate trader - I'm always interested in new ideas and inspiration.  But I acknowledge your choice.
> 
> By the way, my comment about coming out of the woodwork was to do with commenting on the "old hoary chestnut" of Gann, not about posting in general.  I certainly have been out of the loop for some time that is true, and will not have much time to post, so this is a brief friendly reminiscence.
> 
> Personally I find I need more than trading to keep me happy.  It is fun, but not the center of my universe, albeit one of my passions.  I've been getting inspiration composing Music again, and building an IT organization in the US (despite the downturn), and writing too, which keeps me busy.  Trading is fiscally rewarding, but I find making music soothes the soul, and I like the personal contact in business.
> 
> Glad to hear you are doing well.
> 
> Kind Regards
> 
> Mag




No apologies needed - you didn't offend me at all.

It's just that I've been trading for many years now, and I'm past the stage where I look for other people's opinions about my trading strategies.
When I started trading I was given the following advice by someone who'd been in the game a long time and had done very well. What he said to me was...

_'Trading is the sort of business where you need to shut yourself in your office, don't listen to the news, don't read the papers, don't ask others for their opinions, don't tell anyone what you're doing, not even your missus. Just do your research, practice until you've got a system that performs consistently and suits your personality. And above all, keep it simple'._

I thought that was pretty good advice back then, and I still think so today. But I must confess that I haven't followed it exactly. I do listen to the news, I do read the papers although not the financial pages, and I do occasionally swap notes with a couple of other traders where we compare our trades, discuss strategies etc etc. 
Also I've been an active member of ATAA for many years and I enjoy our monthly meetings where we have a couple of beers after the meeting, and discuss strategies for conquering the markets. But for the most part, I like to be pretty much solitary in my trading, simply because that's what suits me.
I can understand that others are different to me and may need regular contact and discussion with other traders.

Years ago I read something that really stuck in my mind....
_Blessed is the person with technical analysis skills - he/she has a method of making money for the rest of his/her life without having to rely on the opinions of others._


----------



## seekandfind

Honestly speaking this topic is probably one of the most hotly debated areas in technical analysis, and there are very valid comments which state that you must shut yourself out from the world. You read what goes on around you in order to be informed of CONSENSUS only. Apart from that, there is no debate that it can only be yourself thru your own efforts that will succeed.

On Gann, I will give my honest and personal experience. I began trading in 1994 and I first heard about GANN in the same year. I can honestly say that after 15 years there are still things to learn about this man's methods.

You can read his original work, rare writings, research from others and so on, read it 5 times, and think you understand, read it ten times and likewise. You may need to read and apply some of his concepts 100 or more times before it seems to show itself in the markets.

There have been some preliminary comments re Costa, Bowden etc, and to comment only on that, is being, quite honestly, very very narrow.

This man was without doubt the finest market technician in history. That comment is reserved only for those with a public profile. I have no doubt that there are people who remain anonymous that have been successful properly using his approach. Those that have, have managed to discover the truly best aspects of his techniques. Costa and Bowden et all I will tell you now have released rudimentory, and basic concepts publicly. Its dangerous to focus on any one persons application. Instead you MUST research heavily ALL there is available. And its a LONG LONG process. I don't think you can pick up much from publicly sold material. You will need to read as much as you can find whether commercially available or freely available.

If you are yet to find someone who is consistatly successful then its only because they have chosen to remain out of the public spotlight.

INTO 2006 I had patches of success here and there, and my fair share of failure. Along with many I could have just continued without any consistant success. I'll also tell you now that you will NEVER be able to uncover what is required if you have the distractions of a family, wife, and job. It just wont happen. The effort, hours and concentration, the ability to seek higher laws in our Universe and the ability to shut out everything else will be mandatory for your success of understanding this man.

Forget the stories you read about this man, and instead do your own due dilligence and research, and you will discover success unlike you have ever imagined. He has been heralded as the greatest, and he has been heralded as a FRAUD as well. Just like in trading you do your own detective work. Your own results will dictate what the truth is for you personally. 

Since the financial debacle in the United States in 2007 I have discovered what I believe to be the essence of what you should apply with his techniques. I owe this to one person and that is William Gann. My best and most consistent results have come ONLY after applying this knowledge.

I'll need to streamline the rest of this response, as you can research and get nowhere with this stuff. GANN angles etc, FORGET IT, its not the essence of this man's work. The angles and commonly used methods are merely additional techniques to add confirmation to a decision. Used in isolation, and used without the core concept of GANNS work is a recipe for disaster.

There are 3 primary or core techniques that GANN used.

1. He was an excellent disciplinarian that could read and understand human nature and behaviour and trade at emotional extremes near tops and bottoms of significance consistantly. I know, I have been doing this for many months.  Humans are basically predominantly lazy, behave with a herd mentality, and want things handed to them on a platter. Nowhere is this better reflected than in financial markets. In order to correctly apply this you will need to study back hundreds of years in your chosen market or as long as data will allow. Anything without 90 years or more of available data is to be IGNORED!!!! Your task is to understand and accept that humans DO NOT change. Their action and behaviour under certain conditions is guaranteed to repeat and rhyme with remarkable similarity. In fact this is so powerful that you can overlay charts from tens and hundreds of years ago, lineup and phase shift these charts and the price action and swings will lineup almost perfectly. I have given you one of his core techniques to forecast the future. Go back in time, find the same conditions fundamentally, and know where in your current chart it lines up with that period of history.  This is an advanced form of technical analysis and pattern matching that beats the pants off of the so called patterns used by the masses. Its artificial intelligence models, but using your own effort and brain. Nothing can beat our own brains, and I doubt anything ever will.

2. Financial astrology. LAUGH all you want people, and I am sure many of you will switch off right now. There is a correct way to use astrology and I'll tell you now its nothing like the astrology you may think of. This form of analysis can be called an empirical study of the laws of our Universe. PALM reading et all is way off the mark, as is the more commonly understood methods of key geometric angles between the heavenly bodies. No sorry, not even close yet!!! You do indeed apply sacred geometry, but the natural ratios that occur in much of nature is applied very specifically to EACH individual markets HIGHS and LOWS of significance. Seek and ye shall find. You must understand astrological or astronomical concepts and the terminology involved in order to apply this, but the rest is a careful and painstaking empirical analysis of each individual markets highs and lows over decades or even centuries. TIP forget the commonly written methods in this area!!! Work hard and you will begin to see a universe whose laws humans still do not understand.

3. Mathematics and Geometry. This is quite a complex art. Some of the very basic techniques are with so called GANN angles and so on (personally I never use them). It goes way beyond the concept and application of basic geometry and instead shoud lead you to a better understanding of sacred geometry as applied by the ancients. You will need to truly understand the concepts of multidimensional physics, the ability to view time and price as one, and the ability to be able to view financial charts as a representation of higher dimensional physics. Having a background in maths, physics and engineering certainly helps, but it can be understood thru much effort and dilligence. Gann angles, time by degrees and so on, are extremely basic concepts, and they will only work if you apply all of the techniques properly.

I can say, that NOONE can teach any of this. You will have to learn it all thru your own hard work and effort. How about 60 hour weeks or more spent doing nothing else for years!!!!


I'll say now that 99.99% of people and that includes people reading this note will never make it. This requires a passion and willingness to learn unlike anything I have ever experienced. The only reason for my comment here is that I am sick and tired of the C%^$& that is out there, and I can only hope that there will come another person that makes the effort. If this e-mail encourages someone else to achieve success then its been an hour well spent.

As for me I'll go back into my hole, my little office in my house, somewhere here in our Great country, and continue my anonymous existence. Thank God I have been blessed with an understanding wife and I am free of the tyranny of daily life. I left my job in IT in 2006 and have never looked back. Mind you the ability to calculate the major turns and wait only for that moment is a skill I am sure virtualy noone can apply, even those with technical discipline. It takes a profound understanding of our Universe to correctly pinpoint.

You sir who started this thread, the answer is YES, this mans work is a reflection of a gift, and its a pity we as humans cannot undersand all there is to offer. But then again, thats why it will remain so secret, revered, and yet viled by so many.

Good luck, no, I'll finish with good effort.


----------



## Trembling Hand

seekandfind said:


> The only reason for my comment here is that I am sick and tired of the C%^$& that is out there, and I can only hope that there will come another person that makes the effort. If this e-mail encourages someone else to achieve success then its been an hour well spent.




Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.

Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.

Until then


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.
> 
> Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.
> 
> Until then




This is why i love you th


----------



## Timmy

beamstas said:


> This is why i love you th



Hear hear!


----------



## Sicilian Trader

Trembling Hand said:


> Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.
> 
> Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.
> 
> Until then




i don't think he knew who he was dealing with with 

typing = 1 hour
shut down = 7 secs


----------



## explod

> seekandfind Re: Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> 
> This man was without doubt the finest market technician in history. That comment is reserved only for those with a public profile. I have no doubt that there are people who remain anonymous that have been successful properly using his approach. Those that have, have managed to discover the truly best aspects of his techniques. Costa and Bowden et all I will tell you now have released rudimentory, and basic concepts publicly. Its dangerous to focus on any one persons application. Instead you MUST research heavily ALL there is available. And its a LONG LONG process. I don't think you can pick up much from publicly sold material. You will need to read as much as you can find whether commercially available or freely available.





A very intelligent post.  I liken him to the farmers and the buyers, who I lived among as a youth and who knew well the seasons and the markets for livestock and produce.  

Gann used the technical side well but it was backed by his experience with the markets and its cycles but he particularly made himself aware of supply and demand.   I too continue to return to his writing and always there are new insights.

Hope we see some more from you Seekandfind

cheers explod


----------



## tech/a

Ive never seen a profitable Gann Trader.

Including the one who lectured the topic with the Securities Institute when I did T/A there.

He invited me to his home to watch him trade live.
I did and didn't see anything remotely looking like a trade.
Although I waited with baited breath.
Ive been on forums for 14 yrs and never seen ONE.

Seen lots of rich Gann Educators though!


----------



## kenny

Well, I definitely don't have enough knowledge about Gann techniques to make a constructive comment.

What I would like to say is a big ASF Welcome to seekandfind. Thank you for taking the time to post your views especially since you even chose a somewhat controversial topic. 

I hope you will find it as rewarding as I do to contribute to this forum.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Bobby

tech/a said:


> Ive never seen a profitable Gann Trader.
> 
> 
> Seen lots of rich Gann Educators though!




*And thats  reality regarding Gann *


----------



## beamstas

I just looked out the window and saw a full moon.
Tomorrow im either going to short the SPI or long the SPI. To determine this i will watch the sky and if i see 5 or more shooting starts before sunrise i will go long. If i see less than 5 shooting starts i will go short. I will confirm my position by comparing todays date to the last recoreded date of having a full moon with 5 or more (or less) shooting stars in the sky. This will help me to determine what the market will do.

Of course i will provide broker statements to prove my huge profitability.

Brad


----------



## Sicilian Trader

tech/a said:


> Ive never seen a profitable Gann Trader.
> 
> Including the one who lectured the topic with the Securities Institute when I did T/A there.
> 
> He invited me to his home to watch him trade live.
> I did and didn't see anything remotely looking like a trade.
> Although I waited with baited breath.
> Ive been on forums for 14 yrs and never seen ONE.
> 
> Seen lots of rich Gann Educators though!




So you keep saying

Will preface by saying that i am neutral on the matter, im just an open minded newbie. Dont know a great deal about Gann either. I do know that must take commitment and sh*t of time to master, based on posts.

Alot of Darvas' success was attributable to shutting out the noise

Tech, ever occurred to you that some people purposefully stay away from the general public on trading matters because they dont want to subject themselves to an inordinate amount of probing, scrutiny and skepticism. Maybe they think that such an exercise would be futile and simply a waste of their time. Better spent with family, friends or going fishing.

Maybe they simply chose not to share their IP with people who they dont care about. Maybe they feel they need not prove anything to anyone except themselves.

I have no idea how many practice Gann, lets say its 5,000 or 10,000 nation wide. 3% profitable of 5,000 is 150 or 300. I am not sure if you will neccessarily come across any of them. Maybe their kind of analysis requires them to be somewhat isolated (from what I have deduced from posts). And if you practice EW or your are a swing trader, then jumping on public forums and sharing ideas and thoughts is more conducive to learning than if you employed gann methodologies?? 

Again, I am a newbie and I still absorbing what I can. I am also a natural skeptic, astrology, Jupiter, your anus... dunno about that. But equally, I understand that things are not as simple as "yes, i am a profitable gann trader, here are my results, and here is my methodology and rationale behind my decisions, its only taken me 12 years to master, but tech, here it is, summarized for you in the following 4 posts".

Just my thoughts.


----------



## beamstas

"Alot of Darvas' success was attributable to shutting out the noise"

You will find alot of Darvas success came from trading micro consolodations and using sound risk management to cut his losses off short! I don't know what you mean by shutting out the noise? Some kind of tool to turn off your speakers i am guessing  Gotta love this little magic boxes that _make_ the price go up 

Brad


----------



## tech/a

> Tech, ever occurred to you that some people purposefully stay away from the general public on trading matters because they dont want to subject themselves to an inordinate amount of probing, scrutiny and skepticism. Maybe they think that such an exercise would be futile and simply a waste of their time. Better spent with family, friends or going fishing.




Yeh sure.
Gann recieves as much type space as Buffett.
Thread after thread.
You'd think ONE LIVING trader would step up to the plate and say hey here is how its done live and here are my last 12 mths trading statements proving that it is being done.
If for no other reason to support those who get such a drubbing from the likes of me.

Yet most every other form of analysis has traders lining up with live trades and broker statements to boot!

Now aint that strange?


----------



## beamstas

tech/a said:


> Yeh sure.
> Gann recieves as much type space as Buffett.
> Thread after thread.
> You'd think ONE LIVING trader would step up to the plate and say hey here is how its done live and here are my last 12 mths trading statements proving that it is being done.
> If for no other reason to support those who get such a drubbing from the likes of me.
> 
> Yet most every other form of analysis has traders lining up with live trades and broker statements to boot!
> 
> Now aint that strange?




I like what you have said T/A

Buffett and Gann similar

So many people think they can follow in their footsteps and copy what people before them have done but they will fail. 

So many people aspire to be buffett and buy shares on "intrinsic value" that they sit around calculating off the company's balance sheet.

Im sure these people have done well in the last year! i'd love to see their broker statements 

The hard truth is no matter how much you try to copy buffett or gann, you will never be as successful as them. you'll just be another sheep in the herd of 100's of sheep trying to do the exact same thing.

The reason Gann and Buffett made money is because they did something different. They didn't just copy someone else!

Brad


----------



## tech/a

> The reason Gann and Buffett made money is because they did something different. They didn't just copy someone else!




Ive not seen any evidence that Gann actually made any real money from trading.

Buffett makes his money from CONTROLLING the company.
There arent to many aspiring Buffetts who do that.
So only a handful actually "Trade like Buffett" and most have no idea what it is they are aspiring too---ie Company control---to be a "Buffett" like trader.


----------



## beamstas

tech/a said:


> Ive not seen any evidence that Gann actually made any real money from trading.




I have never seen any evidence either, but i would suggest that he did make _some_ money

Else why would anybody even consider listening to his outlandish ways of trading the stock market




tech/a said:


> Buffett makes his money from CONTROLLING the company.
> There arent to many aspiring Buffetts who do that.
> So only a handful actually "Trade like Buffett" and most have no idea what it is they are aspiring too---ie Company control---to be a "Buffett" like trader.




Very true

Brad


----------



## Sicilian Trader

beamstas said:


> "Alot of Darvas' success was attributable to shutting out the noise"
> 
> You will find alot of Darvas success came from trading micro consolodations and using sound risk management to cut his losses off short! I don't know what you mean by shutting out the noise? Some kind of tool to turn off your speakers i am guessing  Gotta love this little magic boxes that _make_ the price go up
> 
> Brad




Completely agree. He couldnt have had that kind of phenomenal success without those magic little boxes that he discovered. And based on his account, the same holds true for his ability to have removed himself from wall street and all that financial information that overwhlemed him. He talks about this being a large factor in his success as well.

After his initial and quick success, he was drawn to wall street. His rationale being that getting as close to the action would yield greater results and he would enjoy it a great deal more, than being on his own. But he soon discovered that he became just like those on wall street, like every other trader, alot of confusion set in due to be being overwhelmed with so much information, he struggled to think clearly and to think for himself. He began lacking confidence in his own ability because he started becoming influenced by other people's thoughts, ideas, advice, forecasts, news  - noise. He ultimately lost 200K (or 100K?) of his newly acquired $500K , in a very short period of time, and concluded that he needed to leave all that noise (wall street) immediately

he removed himself from wall street and went somewhere remote, where he continued his dancing in clubs at night. As a result, he would get home very late (early the next morning), would sleep during the day (while Wall street would do its thing) and would wake up in the evening (when wall street was closed). When he woke , he would then analyse his EOD prices of the stocks he was monitoring or holding. These prices were delivered to him from his borker. Darvas also instructed his broker not to accompany the quotes with any advice, any recommendations, nothing but the requested quotes. He also told his broker never to call him, only to communicate via telegram. He didnt have charts , tech analysis, any subscriptions, any tips, just the prices of a handful of stocks, as well as updates from his broker as to where each of his open positions were heading.

He rediscovered his success, and made another $1.7m and got to his $2m

This is my understanding and memory of the book anyway. His story made sense to me and there seems to be a lot of merit in his method, and I am sure there are some who successfully employ such a method. 

Cutting out the noise obviously worked for Darvas. Maybe it works for many traders today who we just dont see on these forums. For others it may make no difference whatsoever.


----------



## beamstas

Sicilian Trader said:


> Completely agree. He couldnt have had that kind of phenomenal success without those magic little boxes that he discovered.




I really appreciate the background of Darvas, as i didn't know all that about him 

I think i better let you know though, i was being sarcastic about those boxes! All he was doing was taking low risk entries and using sound money management! The boxes do nothing to the actual share price 

Brad


----------



## Sicilian Trader

tech/a said:


> Yet most every other form of analysis has traders lining up with live trades and broker statements to boot!




Fair comment. Was playing devils advocate but your point also makes alot of sense.

Having said what I have said, I actually wouldnt mind seeing the trading statements of the likes of Bronte and Battman. Probably some of the most annoying posters I have come across on ASF (am I aloud to say that? Hopefully I wont be struck by a shooting star).


----------



## Timmy

Gann … I am of the opinion of do whatever it is that is working for you.  Having said that, this is my more considered response to seekandlearn’s post.  Initially I agreed with TH, that is was drivel.  I still hold that opinion but in the interests of being fair and reasonable, if seekandlearn can be more specific on some points the post would be much more useful.



seekandfind said:


> I can honestly say that after 15 years there are still things to learn about this man's methods.



OK - what is it that you _have _learnt, & what is a recent example of something you have just learnt, and what about that took 15 years to realise?  If you can be specific here it may of help to some people interested in Gann.



seekandfind said:


> You can read his original work, rare writings, research from others and so on, read it 5 times, and think you understand, read it ten times and likewise. You may need to read and apply some of his concepts 100 or more times before it seems to show itself in the markets.



This sounds interesting, what is it that needed to be read 100 times or so to make itself clear in the market?



seekandfind said:


> This man was without doubt the finest market technician in history.



I am not sure of the claims made about Gann's wealth (a natural by-product of being a great technician ( maybe not, maybe he wasn't a great trader?)).  But how would he compare to someone like James Simons, for example?



seekandfind said:


> I don't think you can pick up much from publicly sold material. You will need to read as much as you can find whether commercially available or freely available.



 Can you be more specific about what material is helpful and what is not?



seekandfind said:


> If you are yet to find someone who is consistatly successful then its only because they have chosen to remain out of the public spotlight.



 Surely there is one that could be found?  Just one?  One will do (at least as a start).  Surely one is not asking too much?  What about yourself - you have chosen to talk about your success with Gann, can you stay in the public spotlight just a little longer to show the non-believers a real life example of successful implementation/use of Gann?



seekandfind said:


> the ability to seek higher laws in our Universe and the ability to shut out everything else will be mandatory for your success of understanding this man.



 By higher laws of the universe do you mean stuff like physicists study at university etc?

I suppose I could go on, but you get the drift (hopefully).


----------



## Timmy

Sicilian Trader said:


> am I aloud to say that?




Why not.  But spell it allowed to keep the pedants (like me) off yer back!


----------



## Sicilian Trader

beamstas said:


> I really appreciate the background of Darvas, as i didn't know all that about him
> 
> I think i better let you know though, i was being sarcastic about those boxes! All he was doing was taking low risk entries and using sound money management! The boxes do nothing to the actual share price
> 
> Brad




What? No! you mean, just because he mentally drew a box around the prices, that didnt result in prices going up??? No magic??

Sh*t, ive misread the whole book then. No wonder my boxy analysis hasnt been working, thanks Brad. I will now focus my attention on the full moon and shooting stars strategy. Please dont tell me that is hocus pocus as well?? I dont want to hear it mate. Seriously


----------



## Bobby

SHezzees ,  Gann was 
 just an opportunist , this grub was crap at trading himself so invented B/S  to sell to fools who still seem to buy today.

*Pure Rubbish*


----------



## Sicilian Trader

Bobby said:


> SHezzees ,  Gann was
> just an opportunist , this grub was crap at trading himself so invented B/S  to sell to fools who still seem to buy today.
> 
> *Pure Rubbish*




go on, tell us what you really think of gann


----------



## Bobby

Sicilian Trader said:


> go on, tell us what you really think of gann




Well as you can tell I'm not a fan  

I spent valuable time on this when starting out , just wish this someone had warned me then '    ST ...


----------



## gazelle

You are probably not a fan because you are too ignorant and lazy to apply yourself to understanding the techniques of Gann . The study of Gann is not for closed minded individuals with blinkers on . check your inbox seekand find .


----------



## tech/a

gazelle said:


> You are probably not a fan because you are too ignorant and lazy to apply yourself to understanding the techniques of Gann . The study of Gann is not for closed minded individuals with blinkers on . check your inbox seekand find .




Gazelle.

Why not post up a few trades with analysis to enlighten us.
Perhaps 5 or so so we can see how consistent gann is.

No need for 5 pages of entry and exit explaination perhaps something like

Entered here off square of 9 and Exit here at confluence of pressure points.
But I'm sure we would all appreciate something tangable.
Show us why its worth the 10,000 hrs of study.Your obviously an advocate who writes pages and pages---yet Ive never seen a trade?
Your latest I read called a top a week or so ago. I note the Ords is still moving forward.

Look forward to your support of your creed.


----------



## nomore4s

gazelle said:


> You are probably not a fan because you are too ignorant and lazy to apply yourself to understanding the techniques of Gann . The study of Gann is not for closed minded individuals with blinkers on . check your inbox seekand find .




lol, you gotta be kidding me.

All successful trading requires hard work and application to succeed, which is why so few do.

How do you know Bobby was too "ignorant & lazy"? How do you know how many hours he put into study on Gann? Bobby also couldn't be too closed minded if he did attempt to understand Gann.

If you think Gann is the holy grail of trading you're kidding yourself. If Gann is so hard too understand and apply, requires hours & hours of study and so few can truly understand/apply it, why bother? There are other methods that require less work and produce the same or better results - ie profit.

To me at least Gann is a bit like some of the Elliott Wave theorists around, they get so bogged down in the theory of their method they overcomplicate their trading. All the very good traders I've seen have kept things relatively simply, trading is a hard enough game without trying to over think everything.

I work off the KISS principle because I'm not smart enough to do anything else.

My


----------



## Sicilian Trader

gazelle said:


> You are probably not a fan because you are too ignorant and lazy to apply yourself to understanding the techniques of Gann . The study of Gann is not for closed minded individuals with blinkers on . check your inbox seekand find .






tech/a said:


> Gazelle.
> 
> Why not post up a few trades with analysis to enlighten us.
> Perhaps 5 or so so we can see how consistent gann is.
> 
> No need for 5 pages of entry and exit explaination perhaps something like
> 
> Entered here off square of 9 and Exit here at confluence of pressure points.
> But I'm sure we would all appreciate something tangable.
> Show us why its worth the 10,000 hrs of study.Your obviously an advocate who writes pages and pages---yet Ive never seen a trade?
> Your latest I read called a top a week or so ago. I note the Ords is still moving forward.
> 
> Look forward to your support of your creed.





Gazelle

I would be very interested in this as well. 

As tech said in the gann thread, there just needs to be one that steps up to the plate.

You could that white knight for all ASF Gannists who have been persecuted all these years on these forums. You could be that Black Swan that disproves the theory that ALL swans are white.

How about it?


----------



## gazelle

Tech . The last projection for the SP500 was calculated for the 3rd April . The actual top was on the 2nd I think at 842.50 then price ran down into April 7th 815.55 which was 27 points . This price move didnt turn out to be overly significant as expected  and since this time the trend has reversed and continued up . The other projection was for the FTSE which completed a marginal top into April 2nd 4125 before running 200 points  down into the 8th April . Using Time and being able to anticipate a point where you might expect a change of trend to occur is an advantage because you can outline your plan in advance and make an assesment on the day as to whether time and price co ordinates are setting up in an anticipated manner . In the case of the SP500 trade the time was quite close but other technical factors were not in alignment which is why I decided against taking a trade . Making a possibility become an actuality is almost impossible . Just because a market is running out a 90 or 180 day cycle doesnt always neccesitate a change in trend on that particular day although the proportionate parts of the circle in time can provide us with directional clues if there is a harmonic balance between both variables . On the nominated date the market completed an interim high into this date although it could have also completed a cntr trend low into this date also . it could have turned out to be nothing which is sometimes the case  . As time approaches we are in a more qualified position to predict the probability of an event occuring but not the event itself which is why I setup two possible scenarios as I knew the date was a fairly significant timing point but I couldnt gauge whether price was going to high into this date or low into a cntr trend until a day before or the actual day of the high . In this case you set your stops at your nominated level and let the market move its course. if you get stopped out you move onto the next setup .


----------



## beamstas

gazelle said:


> Tech . The last projection for the SP500 was calculated for the 3rd April . The actual top was on the 2nd I think at 842.50 then price ran down into April 7th 815.55 which was 27 points . This price move didnt turn out to be overly significant as expected  and since this time the trend has reversed and continued up . The other projection was for the FTSE which completed a marginal top into April 2nd 4125 before running 200 points  down into the 8th April . Using Time and being able to anticipate a point where you might expect a change of trend to occur is an advantage because you can outline your plan in advance and make an assesment on the day as to whether time and price co ordinates are setting up in an anticipated manner . In the case of the SP500 trade the time was quite close but other technical factors were not in alignment which is why I decided against taking a trade . Making a possibility become an actuality is almost impossible . Just because a market is running out a 90 or 180 day cycle doesnt always neccesitate a change in trend on that particular day although the proportionate parts of the circle in time can provide us with directional clues if there is a harmonic balance between both variables . On the nominated date the market completed an interim high into this date although it could have also completed a cntr trend low into this date also . it could have turned out to be nothing which is sometimes the case  . As time approaches we are in a more qualified position to predict the probability of an event occuring but not the event itself which is why I setup two possible scenarios as I knew the date was a fairly significant timing point but I couldnt gauge whether price was going to high into this date or low into a cntr trend until a day before or the actual day of the high . In this case you set your stops at your nominated level and let the market move its course. if you get stopped out you move onto the next setup .




All well and fine
Now lets see the broker statements to prove you actually traded what you said 

Brad


----------



## tech/a

Yes I do understand Gazelle.
But you'd have to admit with targets a month or so out you'd have a watchlist like a dictionary!

I gather you dont use Gann as a sole trading instrument.
perhaps similar to my use of Elliott.


----------



## gazelle

Tech : Theres always something to look out , just keeping on top of it is the hard part . Now for Beamstas : If you read my post you simpleton you would see that no position was executed on that date or is that not clear to you .


----------



## nunthewiser

lol@ simpleton

funny thread this one


----------



## sails

I'm no Gann expert - probably only did about 30% of tthe SITM course a few years ago, so haven't got all the tools in the toolbox.  I spent (wasted?) about three years going through all Gann's books on my own and trying to find whatever I could on the internet to help put the pieces of the jigsaw together - but with no luck.

My understanding is that Gann's methods incorporate other TA techniques including supply and demand in volume  and several sections in a cycle to complete in strong trends - while not EW, it has some things in common including range equality and similar structure.  Old tops become support, etc, etc.  He also used to divide market ranges into eighths where the 50% was the most important, followed by three eights and  five eighths.  All close to fib levels techniques.  He said to count the days between tops to tops, lows to lows as well as ranges.  He said to watch for anniversary dates as well as seasonal time (eg. 91 days is a quarter of the year; 182 days is half, etc.),  Then there are various squares that work with both time and price.  That's only touching very briefly on what I understood, but there is definitely more duckies to line up then just using time alone.  Most of the above is found in Gann's book, "How to make profits in commodities"

Why Gann experts don't want to be more specific, I don't know.  I wish they would as I would have been interested to learn a bit more.  Magdoran has posted quite a bit on his style of Gann Analysis, but I don't think he actually posted live trades.  I think McLaren is one that has traded his style of Gann analysis, but I think it was only available through subscription.  

I have seen a few of them make calls and some of those calls have been accurate, but how or if they traded them, I don't know.  A bit like the original EW thread - all very interesting, but how to actually trade those forecasts seems vague at best.

I sometimes wonder if it's because it's too easy to get caught up in the analysis and become more analysts than traders.  I know I fell into that category when learning Gann.  I have gone right off forecasting.  If I see interesting dates coming together, it's the time to see if other, more conventional TA lines up.

For example, I have quickly sketched up some calendar day charts in the last few days.  I notice that there were 21 calendar days from the XJO low of 23rd Jan to the lower high of the 13th Feb.  Then another 21 calendar days to the low on the 6th March. (Technically I think there was a slightly lower low on Monday 9th March).  Today, the run up has taken 42 calendar days from the 6th March, equaling the distance in time from the those two lows.  Plus there was some range equality in the last two ranges up.  Just simple stuff.

The difficulty comes that one is then bucking an otherwise strong trend.  And all this analysis may only produce a pause - no guarantees that it will produce a major reversal and really no other confirmation at this stage that this cat has finished climbing the wall.  

I too am hoping Seekandfind or Gazelle or any other experienced Gann technician will come to the challenge and at least walk us through how they actually arrive at a trade entry.  But then, unless they do it within seconds of the actual trade, they get howled down with "hindsight" trades.  So, it's probably pretty tough on their side of the fence as well.

My own conclusion is that it really doesn't matter which method you use as long it works for you.  Some people gravitate to spending a lot of time on indepth analysis - each to their own...

Anyway, here's a link to the late Neil Costa's site - lots of free articles on Gann if anyone's interested... http://www.marketmasters.com.au/articles_.html


----------



## bunyip

beamstas said:


> I have never seen any evidence either, but i would suggest that he did make _some_ money
> 
> Else why would anybody even consider listening to his outlandish ways of trading the stock market
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Very true
> 
> Brad




_Why would anybody even consider listening to his outlandish ways of trading the stock market?_

That question is easily answered..... 
Gann methodology purports to offer a way of consistently and accurately forecasting financial markets.
Can you imagine what this would mean for traders? It'd be a licence to print money!
So when you get people making such claims about Gann methods, and offering to teach these methods through books or courses, is it any wonder they catch the attention of wannabe traders?
Is it any wonder that some of these wannabe traders spend considerable time and effort chasing the Gann promise of forecasting excellence? 
Is it any wonder that some of them swallow the bait and wade in with their cheque books and credit cards to get hold of this supposedly sure-fire way of making money?
Is it any wonder that sundry sharks prey on this shoal of bait fish by charging big money for Gann courses?

Anyone thinking of buying a Gann course should ask themselves this question......_'If anyone does in fact have an analysis method which amounts to a virtual licence to print money, would they sell that method?'_
Well I don't know about the rest of you, but I personally would maybe share it with just a few close friends and relatives, but largely I'd keep it to myself. Why would I do otherwise?....if I knew in advance what the markets were going to do, I could double my trading accounts several times each year. Even a small account of just a few thousand dollars would grow to a staggering figure in just a couple of years.


----------



## bunyip

Maybe 'seekandlearn' can post a chart or two and walk us through a couple of his successful trades to show us how it's done. It doesn't matter to me if it's after the event - we can still analyse the method and trial it ourselves on future trades to see if it has any merit.

I don't go along with this idea of challenging people to post their trades live, or produce their trading statements to prove the validity of their methods.
I can tell you this.....if you trade successfully and have done so for a number of years, you don't feel under any obligation to prove anything to anyone. If you're of generous nature and genuinely want to help your fellow traders, you'll post examples of trading strategies work for you, you'll admit that not every trade is profitable, and you'll invite anyone who's interested to test your methods for themselves to see if they have anything to offer.


----------



## bunyip

gazelle said:


> Tech . The last projection for the SP500 was calculated for the 3rd April . The actual top was on the 2nd I think at 842.50 then price ran down into April 7th 815.55 which was 27 points . This price move didnt turn out to be overly significant as expected  and since this time the trend has reversed and continued up . The other projection was for the FTSE which completed a marginal top into April 2nd 4125 before running 200 points  down into the 8th April . Using Time and being able to anticipate a point where you might expect a change of trend to occur is an advantage because you can outline your plan in advance and make an assesment on the day as to whether time and price co ordinates are setting up in an anticipated manner . In the case of the SP500 trade the time was quite close but other technical factors were not in alignment which is why I decided against taking a trade . Making a possibility become an actuality is almost impossible . Just because a market is running out a 90 or 180 day cycle doesnt always neccesitate a change in trend on that particular day although the proportionate parts of the circle in time can provide us with directional clues if there is a harmonic balance between both variables . On the nominated date the market completed an interim high into this date although it could have also completed a cntr trend low into this date also . it could have turned out to be nothing which is sometimes the case  . As time approaches we are in a more qualified position to predict the probability of an event occuring but not the event itself which is why I setup two possible scenarios as I knew the date was a fairly significant timing point but I couldnt gauge whether price was going to high into this date or low into a cntr trend until a day before or the actual day of the high . In this case you set your stops at your nominated level and let the market move its course. if you get stopped out you move onto the next setup .




Gazelle

Can your Gann analysis consistently put you into trades right at the beginning of new trends, and take you out right at the end of those trends?
If it can, then please show us how. 
If it can't, then what exactly can your method do that translates into significantly better profits than standard technical analysis?

From what you've said above I can see that you genuinely believe your Gann analysis is giving you an edge. 
I hate to be the one to rain on your parade, but after reading your post I'm not convinced that your method offers any worthwhile advantage over  simpler analysis methods.


----------



## motorway

From the well known 1909 interview


"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."

I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E. H. Harriman, *Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."*

The bold bit explains everything one needs to know ..
Of the illusory side  of Gann..

It follows from that , that the  edifice appears to be built on this false premise..

There was a very good reason why Harriman was so masterly .
Why he bought at the bottom and sold at the top .
There was nothing unconscious about it or accidental.

But the reasons Gann saw were incidental and spurious

Like those pigeons of behavioral psychology fame..

Coincidences that needed ever expanding tweaks and additions
But could never work..

Because they were not It..

completely real
relatively real
relatively unreal
completely unreal

All methods fall into one of those categories

The many built on false foundations can never 
aspire to be of the first degree
At best they waffle on about risk management
and position sizing etc
At worst they look to the stars



Purely My 



motorway


----------



## explod

bunyip said:


> _Why would anybody even consider listening to his outlandish ways of trading the stock market?_
> 
> That question is easily answered.....
> Gann methodology purports to offer a way of consistently and accurately forecasting financial markets.
> Can you imagine what this would mean for traders? It'd be a licence to print money!
> So when you get people making such claims about Gann methods, and offering to teach these methods through books or courses, is it any wonder they catch the attention of wannabe traders?
> Is it any wonder that some of these wannabe traders spend considerable time and effort chasing the Gann promise of forecasting excellence?
> Is it any wonder that some of them swallow the bait and wade in with their cheque books and credit cards to get hold of this supposedly sure-fire way of making money?
> Is it any wonder that sundry sharks prey on this shoal of bait fish by charging big money for Gann courses?
> 
> Anyone thinking of buying a Gann course should ask themselves this question......_'If anyone does in fact have an analysis method which amounts to a virtual licence to print money, would they sell that method?'_
> Well I don't know about the rest of you, but I personally would maybe share it with just a few close friends and relatives, but largely I'd keep it to myself. Why would I do otherwise?....if I knew in advance what the markets were going to do, I could double my trading accounts several times each year. Even a small account of just a few thousand dollars would grow to a staggering figure in just a couple of years.




Have you studied his books, from your post I doubt it.

Gann was a good trader over many years.   He also put in many years of historical research, in those days spending years at the library collecting data from old newspaper.   From such work (there were many others) has grown the foundation of much we now enjoy aided by our computers to make good trades if we follows the rules and have the discipline.

It is easy to make off handed criticism but Gann's work is extensive and a lot of study of him is required to gain the whole benefit and picture of where he is coming from.  I do not profess to know it all, and as a trader very fallable as most who are truthfull admit, but many basics of Gann have stood me in good stead.   eg.  sell when everyone else is buying and vice versa and above all follow the trend of not just the stock but particularly the product that is making it so.

However in this dscipline Gann is only a small part, there are very many other great traders and writers of same to be digested over time to, in fact the way that the markets change so rapidly we need to gleen all that we can get our hands on.

Often I also see crticisms of Robert Kyosaki,  sure his focus is on selling books but his words are very good for those seeking to learn about investing, they are all starting points only, and if they did not provide them someone else would and they too would be criticised for putting there hand out.

When you have produced what these types of researchers have put forward then just maybe one can criticise.   I suspect however with the scholarship requied to do that you may then find yorself holding them up in admiration.

No one today would set off like Burke and Wills to cross the continent, they did, they died and it could be said that they were a failure.  However they are held up as great pioneers opening up a dry and hostile country.

So lets look at the good in Gann and many others and thank them for the legacy left to us for the taking if we bother to pick up the books.   And you dont have to spend a cent, it can be picked up on the net with ease these days.


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## weird

motorway said:


> At best they waffle on about risk management
> and position sizing etc
> 
> 
> 
> Purely My
> 
> motorway




Interesting comments, but pick up the Jack Schwager books, and you will see many different successful ways of trading ... look at what is common between them. 

Find an edge, exploit that edge as much as possible, in most trading, 1 good or few trades or few months, can make a year. It is not about being right, just turning up with your dish each night regardless, and being able to continue to do so (risk management/position sizing), if you have and believe in that edge.  Having to be right, and not accepting losses and loosing streaks, makes one continue to look for another method or giving up on a perfectly good one.


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## motorway

weird said:


> Interesting comments, but pick up the Jack Schwager books, and you will see many different successful ways of trading ... look at what is common between them.
> 
> *Find an edge, exploit that edge as much as possible, in most trading, 1 good or few trades or few months, can make a year. It is not about being right*





That is what being right IS......


But the question is How robust and real is the edge...

Lets say Harriman happened to buy ( by habit ) three days after a drive down.

And someone ( Gann ? it is just an example ) divines a 3 day vibration/cycle

and make that a rule.... He has an edge as long as Harriman is active in the stocks he manipulated and does not change his habits,,


But it is only a relatively real edge at best..

3 days was only a "tell"

Like the astrology with the Horses

Gann reading list----------->The Silver Key

*It is not the horses that matter , their horoscope is MEANINGLESS*

IT is NOT the horses---------Same.

motorway


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## motorway

The Horses are the last to know 



Edward Henry Harriman

EDWARD HENRY HARRIMAN (1848-1909), American financier and railroad magnate, son of the Rev. Orlando Harriman, rector of St George's Episcopal church, Hempstead, L.I., was born at Hempstead on the 25th of February 1848. He became a broker's clerk in New York at an early age, and in 1870 was able to buy a seat on the New York Stock Exchange on his own account. For a good many years there was nothing sensational in his success, but he built up a considerable business connexion and prospered in his financial operations. Meanwhile he carefully mastered the situation affecting American railways. 

In this respect he was assisted by his friendship with Mr Stuyvesant Fish, who, on becoming vice-president of the Illinois Central in 1883, brought Harriman upon the directorate, and in 1887, being then president, made Harriman vice-president; twenty years later it was Harriman who dominated the finance of the Illinois Central, and Fish, having become his opponent, was dropped from the board. 

It was not till 1898, however, that his career as a great railway organizer began with his formation, by the aid of the bankers, Kuhn, Loeb & Co., of a syndicate to acquire the Union Pacific line, which was then in the hands of a receiver and was generally regarded as a hopeless failure. It was soon found that a new power had arisen in the railway world. Having brought the Union Pacific out of bankruptcy into prosperity, and made it an efficient instead of a decaying line, he utilized his position to draw other lines within his control, notably the Southern Pacific in 1901. 

These extensions of his power were not made without friction, and his abortive contest in 1901 with James J. Hill for the control of the Northern Pacific led to one of the most serious financial crises ever known on Wall Street. But in the result he became the dominant factor in American railway matters. At his death, on the 9th of September 1909, his influence was estimated to extend over 60,000 m. of track, with an annual earning power of $700,000,000 or over.

* Astute and unscrupulous manipulation of the stock markets, and a capacity for the hardest of bargaining and the most determined warfare against his rivals, had their place in this success, and Harriman's methods excited the bitterest criticism, culminating in a stern denunciation from President Roosevelt himself in 1907.*

 Nevertheless, besides acquiring colossal wealth for himself, he undoubtedly created for the American public a vastly improved railway service, the benefit of which survived all controversy as to the means by which he triumphed over the obstacles in his way. 


Harriman

Controlled the News and the trading

He controlled the companies themselves

partner of Rockefeller and Rogers

He was not unconsiously intune with natural law..

HE WAS the one PULLING THE STRINGS

He scared you out and then he bored you out

He accumulated and distributed

There was no top or bottom unless He wanted one

And if he did he created one... 

He was the market .. He was the only Star ( for a time ) That mattered..

He was the LAW 

motorway


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## weird

Motorway, I know where you are coming from, and I have complete respect for your comments. 

Not continuing with your post, but this overall thread, this mystical Gann, just doesn't seem to be as refined as the more practical techniques which also fall under his umbrella which includes simple 1-2-3 patterns or A-B-C patterns, which is also covered by EW or even Dunnigan. None of this is the holy grail ... far from it.

The other stuff, of magical returns just goes to the way of mystics. 

I've have actually experienced magical returns, with a Managed Futures fund, using Stedlmayer or Market Profile techniques, and this was not cryptic, and it did not require a million hours of study, and also an understanding family while learning it, however more while trading it ! It only required a set of steel balls. And, this is not always necessary a good thing ... 

But techniques that worked during a particular period, without employing position sizing ... in the former example 5 years of boom, followed by a short period of massive gloom. Think the current market down turn but both going long and short, resulting in a much harsher return in a shorter period.

I am sure if the boom period was documented and published by the trader, but was written cryptically (However at least I can vouch for that trader during that period, and I should add it was a very basic strategy), that it would have the full mystic of Gann.


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## MRC & Co

motorway said:


> He scared you out and then he bored you out
> 
> He accumulated and distributed




LOL, sounds like the same guys today!

First they try squeeze you, then they make it take so long you get bored and jumpy and close up and right at that minute, they HIT IT!  

Tricky, perfected, little scum bags!


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## MRC & Co

weird said:


> Find an edge, exploit that edge as much as possible, in most trading, 1 good or few trades or few months, can make a year. It is not about being right, just turning up with your dish each night regardless




Another fantastic piece of advice.

Good stuff motorway and weird!


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## bunyip

explod said:


> Have you studied his books, from your post I doubt it.
> 
> Gann was a good trader over many years.   He also put in many years of historical research, in those days spending years at the library collecting data from old newspaper.   From such work (there were many others) has grown the foundation of much we now enjoy aided by our computers to make good trades if we follows the rules and have the discipline.
> 
> It is easy to make off handed criticism but Gann's work is extensive and a lot of study of him is required to gain the whole benefit and picture of where he is coming from.  I do not profess to know it all, and as a trader very fallable as most who are truthfull admit, but many basics of Gann have stood me in good stead.   eg.  sell when everyone else is buying and vice versa and above all follow the trend of not just the stock but particularly the product that is making it so.
> 
> However in this dscipline Gann is only a small part, there are very many other great traders and writers of same to be digested over time to, in fact the way that the markets change so rapidly we need to gleen all that we can get our hands on.
> 
> Often I also see crticisms of Robert Kyosaki,  sure his focus is on selling books but his words are very good for those seeking to learn about investing, they are all starting points only, and if they did not provide them someone else would and they too would be criticised for putting there hand out.
> 
> When you have produced what these types of researchers have put forward then just maybe one can criticise.   I suspect however with the scholarship requied to do that you may then find yorself holding them up in admiration.
> 
> No one today would set off like Burke and Wills to cross the continent, they did, they died and it could be said that they were a failure.  However they are held up as great pioneers opening up a dry and hostile country.
> 
> So lets look at the good in Gann and many others and thank them for the legacy left to us for the taking if we bother to pick up the books.   And you dont have to spend a cent, it can be picked up on the net with ease these days.




I've looked at some of the books Gann wrote. I've read a number of Gann books written by others. I own the 'Gann Made Easy' course by Bill McLaren.

You claim Gann was _'a good trader over many years'._ 
On what evidence do you base this claim? According to Gann's son, Gann couldn't make a living from trading and had to rely on sales of his books and courses to support himself and his family.
Sounds remarkably like some of the people who sell Gann courses these days.

I keep hearing about the 50 million dollars that Gann is supposed to have made - a staggering sum of money in todays values. Where is the proof of the 50 million? His estate when he died wasn't worth one million, let alone fifty.
The claims about Gann being such an amazing trader are about as credible as the claims that Livermore was a trading master. Livermore kept going broke. No matter how much money he made, he kept losing it all because clearly he failed to learn the all important lessons of money management and risk control. 
How good is a trader who neglects risk control - he's an accident waiting to happen and will sooner or later get wiped out, just like Livermore kept doing. 
Yet the legend of Livermore the great trader is stubbornly believed by people who are keen to have a hero to worship.
I think Gann is probably hero worshipped for much the same reason. 

One of Gann's quotes was _*'The first higher bottom is the safest place to buy, and the first lower top is the safest place to sell'. *_
Well golly gee.....was Gann really the first one to work that out? I'd suggest that other traders before Gann would have come to the same conclusion. 
Gann said follow the trend. Good advice, but here again, I'd suggest that good traders were doing exactly that before Gann came on the scene and starting writing down this sort of information.
Someone writes a book that espouses the virtues of methods that have been used for decades, it can look like they themselves were the first to discover and use these methods.

We can debate the Gann issue forever, but I've yet to see anyone demonstrate how Gann strategies can consistently put you into a trade right at the start of a trend, and take you out of the trade right at the end of the trend. 
The best I've seen from any method, Gann or anything else, is an entry shortly after the trend has begun, and an exit shortly before or after the trend has finished.
I know at least half a dozen strategies and setups that can do that. None of them involve forecasting, all of them are so simple that they can be easily and quickly learned by anyone. Many of them can be found by software with scanning ability, meaning that hundreds of charts can be searched in just a few minutes to find trade setups.
In other words, the best strategies can do no more than enable an astute trader to take bites out of trends. 
Now, if any of you Ganners can demonstrate how Gann strategy can *consistently* achieve any more than taking bites out of trends, then please do so.


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## gazelle

Bunyip  Beamstas and other like minded Lemmings .  I cant be bothered answering your simplistic and narrow minded questions anymore . Mushroom farming must be a lucrative business as you guys seem to be multiplying by the minute .  Based on your assertion you seem to have already aquired  a detailed and intuitive understanding on the techniques and applications of Gann so why ask me to outline the parameters of my trading system . And so it is another blinded Lemming joins the line . Thankyou for not raining on my parade  and if you will allow me to offer you some advice   may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .


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## Trembling Hand

gazelle said:


> Bunyip  Beamstas and other like minded Lemmings .  I cant be bothered answering your simplistic and narrow minded questions anymore . Mushroom farming must be a lucrative business as you guys seem to be multiplying by the minute .  Based on your assertion you seem to have already aquired  a detailed and intuitive understanding on the techniques and applications of Gann so why ask me to outline the parameters of my trading system . And so it is another blinded Lemming joins the line . Thankyou for not raining on my parade  and if you will allow me to offer you some advice   may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .




Yep and aint that a text book out come 

_"You don't understand, you're not open to our way, I'm wasting my time"_

No idea weather Gann made money or not or if Gann methods once learnt will offer a sizable edge greater than the correct application of other trading methods. But its clear that no one that has come through this site can show the slightest evidence of a series of real trades and application.

And so the skeptics grow not through being close minded but through being inquisitive and looking into the box. As always with Gann finding that the actions of the very people that sing its praise are holding nothing..... again!!


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## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep and aint that a text book out come
> 
> _"You don't understand, you're not open to our way, I'm wasting my time"_
> 
> No idea weather Gann made money or not or if Gann methods once learnt will offer a sizable edge greater than the correct application of other trading methods. But its clear that no one that has come through this site can show the slightest evidence of a series of real trades and application.
> 
> And so the skeptics grow not through being close minded but through being inquisitive and looking into the box. As always with Gann finding that the actions of the very people that sing its praise are holding nothing..... again!!





From what I have seen over the years.
Gannists seem to be totally absorbed in "Making it work".
*There is no trading method *(Other than swing trading).
Gann is the illusion of complex perfection which returns the holy grail.
*Gann left a great legacy and those who pedal it are for ever grateful.*

Gazelle.
Unfortunately I don't think you have a trading methodology which returns you a consistent profit. Certainly not Gann based.


This thread without doubt answers its question.


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## joeyr46

One of Gann's quotes was 'The first higher bottom is the safest place to buy, and the first lower top is the safest place to sell'

My question is simply this how do you know where that first higher bottom is or if it is going to continue to go down so once again we use a look (pattern ,fib retracement or EW ) to give us a clue or am I missing something?


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## soso

joeyr46 said:


> One of Gann's quotes was 'The first higher bottom is the safest place to buy, and the first lower top is the safest place to sell'
> 
> My question is simply this how do you know where that first higher bottom is or if it is going to continue to go down so once again we use a look (pattern ,fib retracement or EW ) to give us a clue or am I missing something?




Every leg in the oppopsite direction of the trend could be the first leg of a new inverse trend. If the leg is impulsive (EW based or high momentum) you wait for a retracement of this leg (if it takes place), and if indeed looks like a correction (slow motion, ew corrective pattern etc) you have a high chance to catch the new trend or at least another leg of a larger correction (think wave C or 3 if you're lucky).


----------



## beamstas

gazelle said:


> Bunyip  Beamstas and other like minded Lemmings .  I cant be bothered answering your simplistic and narrow minded questions anymore . Mushroom farming must be a lucrative business as you guys seem to be multiplying by the minute .  Based on your assertion you seem to have already aquired  a detailed and intuitive understanding on the techniques and applications of Gann so why ask me to outline the parameters of my trading system . And so it is another blinded Lemming joins the line . Thankyou for not raining on my parade  and if you will allow me to offer you some advice   may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .




My. Point. Exactly. 

I can't really add to what TH and Tech/A have said.

*Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?*
Obviously not

*Gann, honestl,y is it a good way to fill your ego and not your wallet?*
Yes 

Brad


----------



## explod

joeyr46 said:


> One of Gann's quotes was 'The first higher bottom is the safest place to buy, and the first lower top is the safest place to sell'
> 
> My question is simply this how do you know where that first higher bottom is or if it is going to continue to go down so once again we use a look (pattern ,fib retracement or EW ) to give us a clue or am I missing something?




Gann diligently used the point and figure chart,wich from his historical research was consistently reliable at that time.   There are rules to follow but on what is the uptick from the second low, being higher than the previous (bottom low) almost allways it would rise from that point and the bottom confirmed.   A break below the line of the two bottoms was the stop loss but it was found this rarely occurred.   Of course in todays context with so many traders following technical analysis this is much less the case.   As I indicated in the last day here, Gann is one of the starting points for serious newcomers to understand the basics of charting.   Point and figure is little used today but I still find it a very good way of identifying longer term trends as I am that type of investor (as distinct from a trader)

Depends where you are coming from.  For the serious student I still believe he shouold be part of the carriculum.    On a point and figure basis it is clear that the Dow Jones is in a downtrend, this type of information informs one for other decisions.

cheers explod


----------



## sails

explod said:


> ....  but I still find it a very good way of identifying longer term trends as I am that type of investor (as distinct from a trader)...




Explod, I think the end of your sentence above might explain quite a bit.  Longer term investors may well find TA that suits them and could easily include EW, Gann, etc.  However, for the short term trader, Gann particularly becomes too labour intensive for a one man band.  

Perhaps this is more where the conflicts lie as long term investors using Gann techniques probably only trade very rarely and happily fill in their spare time with in-depth analysis.  Whereas TH might be hitting the buy or sell buttons all day long.

Just a thought...


----------



## nomore4s

explod said:


> As I indicated in the last day here, Gann is one of the starting points for serious newcomers to understand the basics of charting.



That's cr@p, I've never studied Gann and I don't intend to. There are plenty of sources to study to understand the basics of charting - and most of the links and info can be found right here at ASF with a bit of searching.



> Point and figure is little used today but I still find it a very good way of identifying longer term trends as I am that type of investor (as distinct from a trader)



I also find P&F a useful tool but it isn't only restricted to longer term trends. 



> On a point and figure basis it is clear that the Dow Jones is in a downtrend, this type of information informs one for other decisions.



LMAO, a look at any chart will tell you the DOW is in a downtrend. The weekly chart is still very ugly.


----------



## tech/a

explod said:


> Gann diligently used the point and figure chart,wich from his historical research was consistently reliable at that time.   There are rules to follow but on what is the uptick from the second low, being higher than the previous (bottom low) almost allways it would rise from that point and the bottom confirmed.   A break below the line of the two bottoms was the stop loss but it was found this rarely occurred.   Of course in todays context with so many traders following technical analysis this is much less the case.   As I indicated in the last day here, Gann is one of the starting points for serious newcomers to understand the basics of charting.   Point and figure is little used today but I still find it a very good way of identifying longer term trends as I am that type of investor (as distinct from a trader)
> 
> Depends where you are coming from.  For the serious student I still believe he shouold be part of the carriculum.    On a point and figure basis it is clear that the Dow Jones is in a downtrend, this type of information informs one for other decisions.
> 
> cheers explod




Hang on ---- Point and Figure?? All these Gann angles/fans and Astro analysis boils down to finding a first swing Low or high. By the way the* ONLY *time you can be *100%* sure its a FIRST swing high OR low is when the 2nd swing is in place!



sails said:


> Explod, I think the end of your sentence above might explain quite a bit.  Longer term investors may well find TA that suits them and could easily include EW, Gann, etc.  However, for the short term trader, Gann particularly becomes too labour intensive for a one man band.
> 
> Perhaps this is more where the conflicts lie as long term investors using Gann techniques probably only trade very rarely and happily fill in their spare time with in-depth analysis.  Whereas TH might be hitting the buy or sell buttons all day long.
> 
> Just a thought...





But wait its not *JUST* that----its the ability to find a LONG TERM trend in EITHER direction which calls for hrs of in depth analysis which once found means that the exponent doesnt have to spend hrs any more looking for entry and exit---they just trade it.

*GREAT*
Would a Gann exponent like to show us their analysis for the *NEXT* one (Walking Forward) and explain how they intend to trade it.


----------



## explod

> However, for the short term trader, Gann particularly becomes too labour intensive for a one man band.




Absolutely and stategies for short term trading have to take on new and developing formulas by the day just to stay with the pack.   My interest here is to highlight lines of enquiry for the newcomer who wants to get a thourough grounding.  And as someone said yesterday, there are many others, I also gained a great deal from Market Wizards (much more than Gann) and there are two texts now on that, but on this thread we are talking Gann and I cant help chipping when some criticise out of hand without offerring reasonable explanation for it or making a contribution that is usefull, but that just stubborn me.


----------



## explod

> But wait its not JUST that----its the ability to find a LONG TERM trend in EITHER direction which calls for hrs of in depth analysis which once found means that the exponent doesnt have to spend hrs any more looking for entry and exit---they just trade it.




Of course, where's the problem.  I am not a Gann exponent by the way, but in his time when there was little available he made a valuable contribution.  And for the serious student his part of history is very valuable as a forunner as in properly learning any subject.


----------



## beamstas

explod said:


> On a point and figure basis it is clear that the Dow Jones is in a downtrend, this type of information informs one for other decisions.











Brad


----------



## tech/a

> Of course, where's the problem




*Consistent application of the analysis in a tradable methodology.*

Never seen it.
And it seems no one is capable of posting a string of charts with analysis attached to demonstrate.

There *IS* the problem.


----------



## nomore4s

gazelle said:


> Thankyou for not raining on my parade and if you will allow me to offer you some advice may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .




rotflmao, we aren't the ones who have migrated over from hotcopper since being banned. Hope you are sleeping properly now




gazelle said:


> Since this time my questions have been answered and I have also subsequently been  barred from the site for the reasons of the above posts .
> I am so upset I cant sleep properly .


----------



## sails

tech/a said:


> But wait its not *JUST* that----its the ability to find a LONG TERM trend in EITHER direction which calls for hrs of in depth analysis which once found means that the exponent doesnt have to spend hrs any more looking for entry and exit---they just trade it.
> 
> *GREAT*
> Would a Gann exponent like to show us their analysis for the *NEXT* one (Walking Forward) and explain how they intend to trade it.




I can't answer for the Gann experts, but I found there were *so many potential "turns"* when I spent an otherwise useful chunk of my life trying to make Gann stuff work for me. 

For example, one of Ganns techniques is squaring of price and time.  Explained all in his books - but briefly it means is if there is 360 points in a major range, you would then look 360 days ahead (also 60, 90, 120, 180, etc) and then do the same with price from the high or low of that range.
Then there are other squares that have nothing to do with range size, but seem to work. Then there are the calendar day counts from tops to tops, lows to lows, etc.  So, almost every day there would be "potential reversals".  So then, when the real reversal actually happened, I didn't believe it. 

So often I would find that time and price would indeed square out, but *it didn't necessarily mean it would reverse*.  It was quite exciting to watch price go to the exact point on the exact day (sorry can't give specifics as I have packed all my old notes away) - but it did happen on numerous occasions.  

The problem ended up that I had numerous squarings of time from all the major highs and lows coming in almost on a daily basis - most of which *did not reverse the trend*.  Maybe more is taught in the later classes at SITM which I didn't complete to filter out this daily noise.

If I really wanted to further the Gann techniques, I would probably have a closer look at this course:  http://www.adest.com.au/  - but would first want to make sure it is a complete course.  I have lost trust in people peddling courses costing thousands.  I am tired of paying for courses that, with slick marketing, make you believe that you are getting a full education for your money, only to find you just get the basics and have only paid a fraction of the full cost of education.  

Another thought is some educators require their students to sign secrecy agreements, so could explain the reluctance to share.  Not excusing the policy, just pointing out that it may exist.  I don't know why they do this as most of the material is readily available, not only in Gann books, but by numerous other authors and lots of free stuff on the net. 

Not sure if this answers your question, Tech - but it's to the best of my knowledge.


----------



## explod

tech/a said:


> *Consistent application of the analysis in a tradable methodology.*
> 
> Never seen it.
> And it seems no one is capable of posting a string of charts with analysis attached to demonstrate.
> 
> There *IS* the problem.




Just for you tech/a I will get my text of Gann out and we can deal with it properly.   Need a few days though as I have for the last month been shifting and such things are still in storage.

I have not asserted him as a holy grail but he is a pat of the early development of where we are today

Struth I have a nephew (6 years IT at RMIT) who now works with a private group who trade currencies in seconds with the amounts of money some can only dream about and they make real bread, he has probably never heard of GANN and may never need to.   But I find the background to these fellows interesting for me.   And suppose you are correct in the sense that Gann is not to trade by (This thread ???) but for the investor has a great deal to offer for long term outlook.


----------



## sails

explod said:


> Just for you tech/a I will get my text of Gann out and we can deal with it properly.   Need a few days though as I have for the last month been shifting and such things are still in storage....




I'd be interested too, Explod.


----------



## Magdoran

I'd like to offer a different perspective.  

Surely the objective should be to improve your edge if you can.  This leads to the a question of how best to apply your limited time and resources for the best result, doesn't it? 

Learning all the aspects of trading/investing is very involved, and there are so many different perspectives to consider.  Learning Gann materials is very time consuming, and if you try to stumble through the red herring sources, it will not be very rewarding.  

However, if you do cut through the nonsense, there is a wealth of information to help those wanting to use charting as their main analysis approach. The challenge is that this isn't easy to master, and just like the market, it is open ended and never ending.   So the question for each individual is if this is worthwhile committing time and resources to.  

Firstly you need to estimate if you think you have the aptitude and capability to learn this material, and persevere with it.  Secondly you have to be prepared to spend at least 3 years on this at minimum to make this work.  Thirdly, you really need a good source of information that won't confuse you, and that will at least derive some benefits conceptually to improve your edge.  In my view that shortcut comes from Bill McLaren. 

*Charting:*

McLaren cuts to the chase in teaching good charting skills, and simplifies the whole thing to make it clear.  Initially the focus is on learning how markets trend, purely looking at bar chart and volume and the patterns without indicators.  

For McLaren, at the heart of understanding trends is understanding counter trends.  The core idea is to look for patterns of trend which tell you a lot about what the market is doing.  He also addresses wave theory and how this can be utilized.  He displays chart after chart giving commentary on a range of different patterns in different markets to get the foundations of charting over to the viewer. 

*Understanding charts in a nutshell:*

*1. Pattern
2. Time 
3. Price*

*Trading Rules:*

McLaren's materials actually do give very precise approaches for trading rules including where and how to take partial profits, and in what technical situations to set time and price targets (entry and exit rules are discussed in depth).  It is precisely not about picking tops and bottoms – this is to be avoided.  It is about understanding counter trends and recognizing when the trend is at risk.  What he does is to arm you with the capability for setting your own system up for your style.

Hence the claim there is no system is wrong.  There are a range of alternatives available depending on how you want to trade.  Examples I can think of are:  long term, short term, mid term, trend trading, contrarian, counter trend trading, hedging, highly leveraged, stocks, commodities, Forex, Indexes, etc.

*What did I learn that was useful?:*

*1. Markets aren't random (more like a chaos model)
2. Markets move in cycles    
3. There are discernible patterns 
4. If probabilities are understood this constitutes a significant edge*

If you can master the time factor, then this too constitutes a significant edge.  Yes it is a very involved subject requiring an understanding of patterns of trend, understanding counter trends, but once understood really changes the way you perceive markets.

Regards

Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

*Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater:*

In my view there is great value in some of the ideas that came out of the “Gann quadrant” of thinking.  Yes there is a lot of nonsense and dodgy course vendors, but that's true for any quadrant of the trading/investing sphere isn't it?  How many different dog and pony shows are out there?  Just look on the Internet (I'd love to see a researcher look into this, it'd be hilarious to see how many there are and what kind they are).

I again alert people to the work wavepicker and I did when it comes to demonstrating how to use a forecasting style which we did in advance time after time (people keep saying no one has done this - “short memory”?).  This doesn't mean you're going to be right every time, or that this is a panacea with a cast iron guarantee of success.  We all know that this is not realistic.  What the approach is about  is assessing the probabilities and making sound judgments about managing uncertainty – essentially a style of trading.

*Let's get the right attitude to studying the market:*

This is a complex subject, and it is controversial, which is why time after time we have polemic after polemic, and usually between the ignorant versus the newbie Gann zealot.

Just for the record, I'm a person who likes to trade the markets and has a burning desire to continually build and refine a decisive edge, and use whatever resources are out there to achieve better trading methods.  So, I'm not a “Gannist” or a “Gann” apologist.  Personally I couldn't care less if Gann made a billion or never made a cent.  What matters to me is that I have significantly benefited from the ideas I have gleaned.  I also believe I have helped some others to do the same, and I feel good about that.

I see it as a waste of time arguing the same circular arguments with the detractors who have an emotionally negative view.  Often they are trolls, or are people who are not prepared to do their own work, or had a bad experience with a Gann charlatan.  Equally there are the Gann zealots who are arrogant and dismissive and either publish piles of text that doesn't make much sense, or are just downright rude.  I have no interest in engaging with anyone who has this kind of negative attitude, hence I will politely ignore this kind of rude behavior.

What I find interesting is that some people spend years with moving averages /oscillators and back testing in a very narrow paradigm of thinking and spend a lot of money on courses, software and a host of other expenses.  Often the end result is not pretty.  So why do we not see more condemnation on this?  I suspect because it is the dominant money pit, and there are a few more people doing it.

*Anything of value takes effort to acquire:*

The perspective I'm venturing is formed from having done the due diligence and really considering the alternatives.  It doesn't mean I'm right, and it doesn't mean the majority will agree with my perspective, but it is from a position of having done a lot of research both in theory and in practice. Let's aim to raise the tone here from a  slugging match to something a little more constructive please.

Regards

Magdoran


----------



## tech/a

Sails

Your description fits with everyone I have come in contact with who has used Gann.



> Another thought is some educators require their students to sign secrecy agreements, so could explain the reluctance to share




There may well be more to the agenda than exposing "trading secrets" seeing his works are available generally to the public.



> I again alert people to the work wavepicker and I did when it comes to demonstrating how to use a forecasting style which we did in advance time after time (people keep saying no one has done this - “short memory”?).




Moggie
I do remeber a great deal of work based around Elliott not Gann. Point me to the archive please.



> What I find interesting is that some people spend years with moving averages /oscillators and back testing in a very narrow paradigm of thinking and spend a lot of money on courses, software and a host of other expenses. Often the end result is not pretty. So why do we not see more condemnation on this? I suspect because it is the dominant money pit, and there are a few more people doing it.




In my own case (over 15 yrs) I have probably invested $20k in software and data feeds.
Another $3k on books,and about the same on seminars.
Countless hrs of research and learning time as I'm sure we all can a test to. Personally I maybe where those who dont complain are---happily profitable.
You'd expect that with the vast number who do venture into Technical analysis that you WOULD hear more complaints of ---just cant become profitable---but many in this field have demonstarated more than once that they are and all can be. Mind you its not found in the conventional tech analysis draw---not for me anyway.



> However, if you do cut through the nonsense




Why does there need to be nonsense? Surely Gann didnt originate "nonsense? Everything else I have delved into is pure from Elliott to Steidmayer to P&F to VSA--blah.




> Understanding charts in a nutshell:
> 
> 1. Pattern
> 2. Time
> 3. Price




Agreed but there are many ways to trade profitably without the need to spend 10000 hrs learning Gann.
Time is nice but in my view not a *necessity* to trading success.




> McLaren's materials actually do give very precise approaches for trading rules




Excellent so there should be no problem for you or another taught in the works of McLaren in demonstrating with a few charts the Gann aspect of a few trades from entry to trade management to exit.


----------



## motorway

Gann did not understand P&F
he called them space charts

He took the method and tried to apply it to clock time charts

eg the diagonal forecasting lines squaring price and time
idea of vibration ( fluctuation )

P&F developed in the 19th century to track the manipulation of the Harrimans
to reveal the True Trend

It is the only type of chart that can because it converges to the actual tick chart ( other charts of this type eg renko range bars etc also )

This convergence meant it was used at tick level to economic cycle scale..

It filtered the random from the manipulated to reveal the trend of manipulation.

Thrust reaction halfway points 50% all define eachother

the 50% level ( along with secondary tops bottoms ) dates back to the 19 century

The 50% level is an invariant ...When ever it is crossed the trend becomes doubtful  and what was reaction maybe really is a new thrust in a different direction. Then  watch the momentum ( these charts really have it )

Two true trend fluctuation charts  ( 1 box move to 3 if want more clarity etc ) box size here  is based on  an absolute adaptive scale  ( volatility defined )

DOW

Shanghai

Random removed to reveal _Harriman's _trend ( The manipulative cycle )

The structure at the tick level is retained in all it's proportions..
( clock time charts can just not do THIS )

What to learn ?

I would say P&F

*learn all about trends as they are
*
Dynamic ( all fluctuates ) ---support resistance thrust reaction 50% levels
all dynamic , all movement..

Relative Strength

Then learn volume analysis
You will understand it better





motorway


----------



## tech/a

> Harriman's trend




How does this vary from a "trend".
Never heard of this.
Got any info?


----------



## Timmy

tech/a said:


> How does this vary from a "trend".
> Never heard of this.
> Got any info?




tech - see post #103 of this thread where Motorway discussed Harriman's manipulation of certain railway stocks.


----------



## tech/a

Well I know of only 1 that could say they emulated



> *Harriman*
> 
> Controlled the News and the trading
> 
> He controlled the companies themselves
> 
> partner of Rockefeller and Rogers
> 
> He was not unconsiously intune with natural law..
> 
> HE WAS the one PULLING THE STRINGS
> 
> He scared you out and then he bored you out
> 
> He accumulated and distributed
> 
> There was no top or bottom unless He wanted one
> 
> And if he did he created one...
> 
> He was the market .. He was the only Star ( for a time ) That mattered..
> 
> He was the LAW





*BUFFETT.*

Wont be long and it will look like this.

_BUFFETT

Controlled the News and the trading

He controlled the companies themselves

partner of Rockefeller and Rogers

He was not unconsiously intune with natural law..

HE WAS the one PULLING THE STRINGS

He scared you out and then he bored you out

He accumulated and distributed

There was no top or bottom unless He wanted one

And if he did he created one... 

He was the market .. He was the only Star ( for a time ) That mattered..

He was the LAW _


----------



## Bobby

gazelle said:


> Bunyip  Beamstas and other like minded Lemmings .  I cant be bothered answering your simplistic and narrow minded questions anymore . Mushroom farming must be a lucrative business as you guys seem to be multiplying by the minute .  Based on your assertion you seem to have already aquired  a detailed and intuitive understanding on the techniques and applications of Gann so why ask me to outline the parameters of my trading system . And so it is another blinded Lemming joins the line . Thankyou for not raining on my parade  and if you will allow me to offer you some advice   may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .




Using rhetoric like the above borders on being paranoid of those who are sceptical , no need to be rude when defending  *pie in the sky . *
Now smile & be a good boy ..
esok:


----------



## bunyip

gazelle said:


> Bunyip  Beamstas and other like minded Lemmings .  I cant be bothered answering your simplistic and narrow minded questions anymore . Mushroom farming must be a lucrative business as you guys seem to be multiplying by the minute .  Based on your assertion you seem to have already aquired  a detailed and intuitive understanding on the techniques and applications of Gann so why ask me to outline the parameters of my trading system . And so it is another blinded Lemming joins the line . Thankyou for not raining on my parade  and if you will allow me to offer you some advice   may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .




Thank you for your suggestion that I migrate back to hotcopper. Believe me or disbelieve me, but I've never been a member of hotcopper. You would be well advised to get your facts straight before you put your mouth into gear and make a fool of yourself.

Since you've been so good as to offer me your suggestion, it's only fitting that I return the favour in kind by offering you a suggestion. 
Here it is......Rather than portraying yourself as a childish little person of small character who gets angry and upset and abusive when someone challenges their beliefs, you would earn more respect by posting something of value such as a chart or two to walk us through a Gann trade.
No need for a live chart giving a blow by blow description as the trade unfolds....a chart after the event would be sufficient to give those interested some insight into how you apply Gann analysis. 
That's not such a big ask - plenty of people on ASF have posted charts to show their trading strategies. It's called 'helping other people' -  it's one of the objectives of this forum, but clearly it's a challenge that you're not up to.
Showing a bit of substance is obviously not one of your strong points - you prefer to spit the dummy and degrade yourself by engaging in the immature practice of name-calling. 
OK, go back to your name-calling then.....in that area at least, you do appear to have some talent.


----------



## bunyip

sails said:


> If I really wanted to further the Gann techniques, I would probably have a closer look at this course:  http://www.adest.com.au/  - but would first want to make sure it is a complete course.  I have lost trust in people peddling courses costing thousands.  I am tired of paying for courses that, with slick marketing, make you believe that you are getting a full education for your money, only to find you just get the basics and have only paid a fraction of the full cost of education.




Sails

I got a smile by reading all those testimonials about how good David Hunt's forecasts are. 
I suspect that, typical of people who are trying to sell courses, he spruiks about the ones that came true, but keeps quiet about those that don't.
For example, I don't see anything about his call in early 2008, when he said the US market would end the year 'significantly higher than where it is now'.
Yet that's what he said at an ATAA meeting at which he was the guest speaker in early 2008. I know, because I was in the audience and I wrote it down.

David Hunt has for many years been in the business of organising trading workshops and seminars on behalf of high profile trading educators like Larry Williams, Dan Gramza and Jake Bernstein. More recently he's decided to personally cut himself a slice of the lucrative trading seminar business by running a seminar of his own.
The question is, can he trade himself? If he can't, then he's unlikely to have anything worthwhile to offer traders by telling them how he does things.

Having bought a couple of trading courses myself in my early years as a trader, and having been disappointed in every single one of these courses, I too am sceptical of people who make their living from selling courses. With the benefit of hindsight I should have insisted on seeing the last two years of trading statements of anyone whose course I was considering buying. No trading statements  - no course purchase from me.
None of them would have complied with my request to show their statements, and I would have saved myself the cost of the course. Fortunately I never allowed myself to get roped in to paying the really big dollars for any course. $2500 was the most expensive one I bought. It lost me 11 of my first 13 SPI trades even though I stuck exactly to the rules.

If you ever get serious about David Hunts course, or anyone else's, I suggest you demand to see his last two years trading statements. If they're impressive, he won't hesitate to show them. If he won't show them, walk away. 
When people are asked to pay thousands for a trading course, they have every right to expect to see concrete proof that the course owner is a very capable trader.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

bunyip said:


> When people are asked to pay thousands for a trading course, they have every right to expect to see concrete proof that the course owner is a very capable trader.




Maybe the ASF community should put their heads together and create a free, quality course to teach the important across-the-board basics and have a series of "Intro to..." sections covering a variety of different styles, time-frames and perspectives.

Kind of like Sir O's beginners thread but more structured, more meat and a variety of contributors. It might take a couple of years to piece together and it would be multiples of times more valuable than the crap that costs thousands and "teaches" esoteric non-transferrable concepts. (It might reach the point where it was worth selling and could become an income stream for Joe.)


....just thinking out loud.


----------



## tech/a

> If they're impressive, he won't hesitate to show them




Exactly.



> Kind of like Sir O's beginners thread but more structured, more meat and a variety of contributors. It might take a couple of years to piece together and it would be multiples of times more valuable than the crap that costs thousands and "teaches" esoteric non-transferrable concepts. (It might reach the point where it was worth selling and could become an income stream for Joe.)




The problem isnt that educators charge for their course---the problem lies in the genral public not being able to recognise a true educator from a scammer.
Why should education be free?
Would you work for nothing?

_But if its that good why the need to tell everyone?_

If a guys got a method that can be consistently profitable AND make X$/yr teaching it then hes pretty damned smart in my view as he can double his trading returns (Or more) trading the profit with his method!


----------



## MS+Tradesim

tech/a said:


> Why should education be free?
> Would you work for nothing?




What's that got to do with anything?  No-one is being asked to give up their day job. It's about a structured, community-focused collaboration.

Teaching and seeing others progress can be the greatest reward. Not everything is about money and financial gain.


----------



## beamstas

nomore4s said:


> rotflmao, we aren't the ones who have migrated over from hotcopper since being banned. Hope you are sleeping properly now




Gold 

Brad


----------



## motorway

tech/a said:


> How does this vary from a "trend".
> Never heard of this.
> Got any info?




If you tossed a coin 20,000 times
and there were   10050 heads and 9050 tails

Is the coin biased is there a real trend ?

if a stock fluctuates 20,000 times

and there were net gain or loss of 50 units of fluctuation

is there a real trend  ?

What would you make a unit of fluctuation in order to
filter out the smaller fluctuations that have an appearance of randomness]

( Important when viewed from the a particular magnitude )

So you could have a high degree of confidence that a trend was unfolding
ending or beginning ?

These two charts have such a scale.

If you look at the DOW chart

You should notice that momentum significantly slowed before the trend reversed at the top , months crowded together , 2006 is a very compressed

( The chart often stops when it is time to get on or off )

And there is a dip below a significant 50% point
and a secondary top ( even  the natural trend lines very 19th century )

What does momentum do then ? It increases through 08/09

changes in activity ( acceleration ) are more important than  current speed ( velocity )..

The shape of this chart will not change with different Box Size
Just smaller or larger scale

If you have the data you could go right down to tick level
and this chart ( though enormous ) would be proportioned much the same.

But with what look like fluctuations being revealed as trends too.

But one trend rules them all

The main trend of manipulation..

In this sense to speak of the weekly trend or the monthly trend
has no meaning

There is just the one trend 
speeding up and slowing down

one column in 2006 took 6 mths to form ( the trend was slow unfolding on approx a monthly scale)  

one area  in 2008 is moving faster than daily...

The chart is doing the timing ... It times..

The one trend on the scale you are interested is the one caused by the bias in the coin, the manipulation.

The other movements have the appearance and behaviour of randomness.

A bar chart would give as much space to the trend in 2006
as in 2008 even though it would be filling the chart up with noise.

who ever was flipping the coin was getting very tired ( we are charting the flips not the clock ticking )

noise = false signal / because there is no information present..

But the chart will change it's time frame to as fast as the frequency of your data.. If information starts to unfold at that speed ...

When I read Gann I see a lot of P&F method trying to be applied to a bar chart... It is understandable because you look at how predictable a clock 
and If only the market trends unfolded like a clock ..You could Predict

But You CAN"T

So I would tend to say That what in particular makes Gann Gann

Is not good for trading..

Fooled By (clock) time...

motorway


----------



## tech/a

Got it.



> What's that got to do with anything?  No-one is being asked to give up their day job. It's about a structured, community-focused collaboration.
> 
> Teaching and seeing others progress can be the greatest reward. Not everything is about money and financial gain.




I look forward then to seeing what can be produced.
I'll bet next to nothing.
Why---because there will have to be decisions made about what to adopt.
Everyone will have different opinions---as has been seen before. Typical lack of leadership.
An educator is a dictatorship.Think about it.
How many times has an attempt to develop a trading system been posted. 

Nothing against the idea.
Think you'll find that those who can trade profitably wont be interested.
Maybe I'm wrong.

I'll particularly be interested in the live "walk forward" testing.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

tech/a said:


> I look forward then to seeing what can be produced.
> I'll bet next to nothing.
> How many times has an attempt to develop a trading system been posted.




I don't think anything will happen either - too many people are infected with the "what's in it for me?" attitude. As I said, I was just thinking out loud.

Edit: For the record, I don't consider myself sufficiently expert at anything to teach it, but I would happily donate my time as an editor.


----------



## tech/a

Yeh I know what you mean.
7000+ posts and its cost me $500 bucks and countless un paid hrs!


----------



## sails

Here's the completed post 



bunyip said:


> Sails
> 
> I got a smile by reading all those testimonials about how good David Hunt's forecasts are.




LOL - I didn't read it all thoroughly – the site seems a bit more marketed now.  I have met David Hunt on occasions at Trade Expos and he seemed to be fairly genuine.  Never any hard sell of his products - which I appreciated.    Have also met Bill McLaren on occasions and I feel he gives good value for money with his material.  I have Bills ebook which is very good and came with Magdoran’s recommendation.  In fact, if I wanted to pursue more study into the element of time, I would go for McLaren's DVDs before Hunt's course.

I guess I feel there is some unfinished business for me with the Gann stuff - I usually like to follow things through and have always felt a little frustrated at having paid so much money to get so little.  Although, I’m not keen on doing a whole lot more study only to find it has limited results.  Anyway, what caught my eye on the David Hunt's course was the topic list as follows:

"_# Webinar Topic 1:
Forecasting By Time Cycles - Time Rules - Time and Space - How to Determine the Change in Trend - How to use Lost motion - How Long Should a Move Last? - Great Time Cycles - Filtering what is important

# Webinar Topic 2:
Part 1 The Basis of Gann's Biggest Trading Profits Webinar
Part 2 The Triangle Circle and Square

# Webinar Topic 3:
Deciphering the Gann [Square] Charts

# Webinar Topic 4:
Gann's Master Calculators - Uses and Abuses

# Webinar Topic 5:
Gann Square of Nine and How to Find its Best Uses

# Webinar Topic 6:
WD GannSoterica - Dancing with the Gods Planets Numbers and MPCs Time
by Solar Degrees (TM)

# Webinar Topic 7:
Putting it all together_"
source: http://adest.com.au/gann/index-8week.html

Most of these topics were in the more advanced classes of SITM that I did not do due to the huge expense.  Hence the somewhat impulsive interest on my part. 



> I suspect that, typical of people who are trying to sell courses, he spruiks about the ones that came true, but keeps quiet about those that don't.
> For example, I don't see anything about his call in early 2008, when he said the US market would end the year 'significantly higher than where it is now'.
> Yet that's what he said at an ATAA meeting at which he was the guest speaker in early 2008. I know, because I was in the audience and I wrote it down.




It could well be true.  The price of the course does seem fairly excessive when compared to McLaren’s material, and yet fairly cheap compared to others who string it out over several courses as a few grand each.  I think the biggest thing for Gann educators is it's easy to show the factors that came together after the market has reversed.  *Then there is no need to show all the other factors that came together and didn’t actually produce a full on reversal*. But that's just my opinion.  I also think it appeals to people to be able to forecast making it an easier thing to market.  People like to get things “right” but, as I had to find out the hard way, that rarely helps the cause of the trader.



> David Hunt has for many years been in the business of organising trading workshops and seminars on behalf of high profile trading educators like Larry Williams, Dan Gramza and Jake Bernstein. More recently he's decided to personally cut himself a slice of the lucrative trading seminar business by running a seminar of his own.
> The question is, can he trade himself? If he can't, then he's unlikely to have anything worthwhile to offer traders by telling them how he does things. .




Yes, absolutely agree – one would need to ask such questions.  I probably should have made it clear again that I am not recommending or endorsing the course.  It simply had some appeal to me due to the topics being taught.



> Having bought a couple of trading courses myself in my early years as a trader, and having been disappointed in every single one of these courses, I too am sceptical of people who make their living from selling courses. With the benefit of hindsight I should have insisted on seeing the last two years of trading statements of anyone whose course I was considering buying. No trading statements  - no course purchase from me.
> None of them would have complied with my request to show their statements, and I would have saved myself the cost of the course. Fortunately I never allowed myself to get roped in to paying the really big dollars for any course. $2500 was the most expensive one I bought. It lost me 11 of my first 13 SPI trades even though I stuck exactly to the rules.
> 
> If you ever get serious about David Hunts course, or anyone else's, I suggest you demand to see his last two years trading statements. If they're impressive, he won't hesitate to show them. If he won't show them, walk away.
> When people are asked to pay thousands for a trading course, they have every right to expect to see concrete proof that the course owner is a very capable trader. .




No plans to do so at this stage, but certainly good advice, Bunyip.

PS:   I have no financial affiliation with Adest or McLaren.


----------



## Magdoran

*Everyone: Please see:"Handbags at 20 paces" from 15th June 2007 in the "General Chat" area.*

*See posts 28 and 33 for a smorgasbord of links to my forecast posts made in advance with detailed charts and commentary.*

Unfortunately I can't quote the posts for some reason, so please locate the thread and view it at your leisure.

People can also see the boxing match between tech and I had at the time, which reveals how he conveniently forgets things over and over again and tries to rewrite history (does he have Alzheimer's???).

I really don't want to have to revisit this all over again.  All that I said is still accurate even today.

All the relevant posts have convenient links to access charts, and people can decide based on these projections if they think this is of interest or not, go back to that time and play the bars forward on their charts and see what they think.

Kind Regards

Magdoran


----------



## sails

Here is the link to the thread Mag is referring to:  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7262&highlight=handbags

A few disagreements of opinion, but a lot of valuable material there, IMO.


----------



## Magdoran

Tech did the same thing on the "Improving chart Analysis" thread too - just read through and see the same old behaviour.



Magdoran said:


> Ok, let’s deal with the semantics and possible meanings when using the term “accuracy”...




This was the beginning of a series of charts I put up aiming to give real time examples.  Please note that this is not a style that lends itself to instant analysis.  However the whole thread had some interesting discussions.

The idea in my trading style is to wait for the right set ups, and these occur in the minority of times and are not designed to trade the whole move but to trade the highest probability trades.  Hence producing charts on demand is really a naive request.  The market determines when there is a trade on.  Our challenge as traders is to recognize the opportunities and take decisive action to capitalise on them. 

McLaren talks about locating "fast moves" based on the pattern of trend.  Time cycles give you an idea of when the trend may be at risk and help to project the potential length of a move in time.  This is very useful if you're using derivatives.

Hope this helps!

Mag


----------



## Bobby

Magdoran said:


> *People can also see the boxing match between tech and I had at the time, which reveals how he conveniently forgets things over and over again and tries to rewrite history (does he have Alzheimer's???).
> 
> I really don't want to have to revisit this all over again.  All that I said is still accurate even today.
> 
> 
> Magdoran*



*

I remember that thread , do you remember saying this  ~__ The problem with both EW and Gann is that they are multifaceted, and very much an art.

In defense of Tech , why say that Alzheimer's insult ?*


----------



## explod

MS+Tradesim said:


> I don't think anything will happen either - too many people are infected with the "what's in it for me?" attitude. As I said, I was just thinking out loud.
> 
> Edit: For the record, I don't consider myself sufficiently expert at anything to teach it, but I would happily donate my time as an editor.




Why not a few of us take it in turns to pick a stock, outline why and talk it all the way through (by whatever our method to the final sell.   I,d be in that and respect those who do not wish to reveal thier way.


----------



## bunyip

Magdoran seems to have a favourable opinion of Bill McLaren. I think this is sound judgement, as Bill definitely has something worthwhile to offer. And he strikes me as a pretty genuine sort of a bloke too. I've spoken to him in person a couple of times after ATAA meetings at which he was the guest speaker, also had three phone calls to him that lasted a couple of hours in total. He's a down to earth sort of bloke who will help in any way he can.
Although he's a Gann man, I like the fact that he incorporates other types of analysis as well, some of which are just basic, common sense stuff that are nevertheless effective and useful strategies.
If anyone wanted some trading education that was part Gann and part more conventional analysis, Bill McLaren would be a worthwhile port of call.

I'm not affiliated with Bill in any way and I get no financial benefit from saying anything complimentary about him.


----------



## motorway

> As long as  a stock is declining one point per day, week or month or falling below or under the 45 degree trend line, it still is in a bear market and in a very weak position. When a stock rallies and crosses the angle of 45 degrees after a strong decline. Then you are ready to put the angles  on the other side of the 45 degree angle. Which shows that the stock is stronger in a bear market and may be getting ready to change into a bull market
> 
> W D Gann .... The Basis of _My _forecasting Method




[*This is basic P&F where is does not belong
*

Wrong sort of Time

Wrong sort of Fluctuation/ Vibration



motorway


example


----------



## tech/a

> In defense of Tech , why say that Alzheimer's insult ?




When I first read this I was really upset!!
Devastated.
For the Life of me I cant remember WHY!



> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...light=handbags




2007 eh.
Been a few handbags since then.
I'll have a read.
Chances are I'll forget what thread I'm on anyway.


----------



## tech/a

> The idea in my trading style is to wait for the right set ups, and these occur in the minority of times and are not designed to trade the whole move but to trade the highest probability trades. Hence producing charts on demand is really a naive request. The market determines when there is a trade on. Our challenge as traders is to recognize the opportunities and take decisive action to capitalise on them.




Hows this for an example.
"Ive been waiting for this (insert reason for trade) to occur for sometime,its pretty rare.Its now a high probability trade in my opinion and this is the way I intend to trade it (insert Trade management here) like this."

We sit back and watch and learn more about Gann all the while asking you constructive questions in relation to your trade.

The only naive part of the above quote is expecting people to fall for your pathetic reason why you cant post a chart.

My PERSONAL view is that your dead scared that you wont be able to display consistent profitability.

Good to see you back moggie.


----------



## motorway

Well I would like to see a Gann analyst

Show what analysis would have predicted Forecast the CLV Bottom

Maybe they could draw a daily weekly or monthly chart

With the Gann trend lines --- Squaring of Time and Price

or astro analysis or what ever

All I did was draw *one *45 degree line

P&F charts were naturally drawn on a squared grid 
drawing lines squaring time and price came naturally

only the time here is not the static clock

But something else... and this difference is very important to all forms of analysis..

look forward to a chart

What a large Apex/coil   ( Triangle ) appears in the recent action


motorway


----------



## mazzatelli1000

gazelle said:


> Bunyip  Beamstas and other like minded Lemmings .  I cant be bothered answering your simplistic and narrow minded questions anymore . Mushroom farming must be a lucrative business as you guys seem to be multiplying by the minute .  Based on your assertion you seem to have already aquired  a detailed and intuitive understanding on the techniques and applications of Gann so why ask me to outline the parameters of my trading system . And so it is another blinded Lemming joins the line . Thankyou for not raining on my parade  and if you will allow me to offer you some advice   may I kindly suggest that you migrate back to hotcopper in time for the mating season . in other words p+++ss off .




I have seen the same sort of responses over at FF with some Gann Analysts.
Maybe there is too much expectation behind the style perhaps??


----------



## MRC & Co

tech/a said:


> The only naive part of the above quote is expecting people to fall for your pathetic reason why you cant post a chart.
> 
> *My PERSONAL view is that your dead scared that you wont be able to display consistent profitability.*
> 
> Good to see you back moggie.




Here we go again.

Wake up to yourself.

If it was upto you, we would have a forum of EW and VSA.


----------



## tech/a

Like most politicians the subject matter will be directed away from the topic.

I'm yet to see *ANY* consistently profitable Gann analyst in action and my personal opinion goes to all Gann Analysts not just Moggie in this case.

Anyone can step up to the plate.


----------



## MRC & Co

Magdoran is an expert with options, do you really think you get that way by being a loosing trader?  

Sounds to me like she has well and truly done her homework.


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Sounds to me like she has well and truly done her homework.




lol, sorry if your a bloke Mag, must have got confused with 'sails'!  

BTW, as you oppies cats are reading this thread, any of you know what happened to WayneL?  Unlike him to just disappear, I really hope he is ok!


----------



## Magdoran

MRC & Co said:


> lol, sorry if your a bloke Mag, must have got confused with 'sails'!
> 
> BTW, as you oppies cats are reading this thread, any of you know what happened to WayneL?  Unlike him to just disappear, I really hope he is ok!



Rotflmao! No, that surgery I had wasn't a sex change!  I'm still very much a male.  I also wonder what happened to Wayne.

Thanks for the support!  Honestly though I've found it isn't worth it trying to reason with tech when he's got his head stuck in a bucket of sand.

His sense of reason seems to desert him when he gets emotional, especially when he's on the losing side of the trade.  I have a crystal memory of his monumental back flip when he abandoned his precious tech trader in mid trade on a whim in mid to late 2007.  No system based reason.  He just got scared.

He'd been touting Tech Trader as the epitome of trading approaches, and then he abandoned it betraying his "gospel" where we were led to believe it was because some non-moving average based traders (I wonder if this included wavepicker and I) had scared the pants off him the bear market would set in (this being before the top in 2007).  

Talk about having the courage of your convictions!  I pity the poor people he didn't tell the game was up and were left in trades post the correction.  So much for a demonstrated airtight system!

Regards

Mag


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

> In my own case (over 15 yrs) I have probably invested $20k in software and data feeds.
> Another $3k on books,and about the same on seminars.



I might add this much wouldn't be required.


> Mind you its not found in the conventional tech analysis draw---not for me anyway.



What's the conventional tech analysis?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Yeh I know what you mean.
> 7000+ posts and its cost me $500 bucks and countless un paid hrs!



You're not a guru though.


----------



## motorway

As long as a stock is declining one unit per reversal either one, three  or five  or falling below or under the 45 degree trend line, it still is in a bear market and in a very weak position. 
When a stock rallies and crosses the angle of 45 degrees after a strong decline. Then you are ready to put the angles on the other side of the 45 degree angle. Which shows that the stock is stronger in a bear market and may be getting ready to change into a bull market 

_A _Basis for a forecasting Method

 Now read " My basis of forecasting By Gann and some of the things he claims will make sense --

"Angles drawn on a chart always keep  before you the position of the stock and its trend.......>These angles will show you when the trend changes"-----> ( he then goes on such )Geometric angles are superior to the normal moving averages  which are irregular.. Geometric angles which are the (true) moving averages ....move at a uniform rate from any bottom or top...

The units should be  of fluctuation ( _vibration _) ---which are Units of information & work-done...

Where work is done , energy is transferred. ( ALWAYS )
but it has to be WORK and not just the random
( back to the coin toss question... what fluctuation reveals a trend 
sideways is a trend too , important)

Cycles are generated , information is diffused..

Markets deliver information via prices , _by changing prices_.



motorway

The value of a forum is for the dicussion
It always makes you think
even just trying to explain something


----------



## Sean K

I've been searching back through Yogi's tips and can't find a winner...



And, I asked for a summary which he failed to provide.

Not sure where that leaves him, and Gann..


----------



## bunyip

kennas said:


> I've been searching back through Yogi's tips and can't find a winner...
> 
> 
> 
> And, I asked for a summary which he failed to provide.
> 
> Not sure where that leaves him, and Gann..





Years ago on another forum, Yogi was offering a free bottle of wine to purchasers of his course!


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> LOL, sounds like the same guys today!
> 
> First they try squeeze you, then they make it take so long you get bored and jumpy and close up and right at that minute, they HIT IT!
> 
> Tricky, perfected, little scum bags!




So thats what it is


----------



## motorway

Then in that Gann Course He talks about 50% retrace etc

ok
"A stock is in a strong postion from the bottom when it is keeping  above the 45 degree angle"

Here is a P&F chart..... It is strong also from the TOP ( there are no overhead 45 angles from the top.... THERE are lesser angles though and with P&F they show up on the 3 box reversal.....

Chart starts with the 2003 bull

You should be long already

Next OPTIMAL buy point is at a 50% level
Where the next swing down comes to rest 

Why

refer to the pendulum Gif  

The time to get on or off.. is when it comes to rest
at that point force of acceleration is MAX and Velocity is MIN

( remember what I said about acceleration and Velocity )

Now the pendulum does not retrace the same path
it moves up or down
Such that halfway points evolve into tops or bottoms

They must ( on average ) That is why trends  conform to the 45 degree angle...

It is right here before your eyes

As Gann states We use Angles to save counting

But we should count also ( as P&F chartists did in the 19 th century ..)

If CLV is too small a stock

maybe some Gann Time and Price analysis on the XAO to compare
can be done ?

So there is strength from the bottom
But weakness from the top
in terms of angles ...

but P&F students would note the Fulcrum like base ( & natural trend lines )
and a possible catapult point also  

Here the change in momentum is key



motorway

No predictions

as Gann states... This bit is just some good P&F 



> "Angles drawn on a chart always keep before you the position of the stock and its trend.......>These angles will show you when the trend changes"-----> ( he then goes on such )Geometric angles are superior to the normal moving averages which are irregular.. Geometric angles which are the (true) moving averages ....move at a uniform rate from any bottom or top...


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> If I really wanted to further the Gann techniques, I would probably have a closer look at this course:  http://www.adest.com.au/



Hi Margaret,

Hope you are well. Interesting to read your perspective on this. 

I tend to agree with your assessment on some of these courses.  The experience you had in getting some benefit in projecting while finding it difficult to actually trade from effectively seems a common complaint.  I suspect part of the problem is that students of these courses are only given pieces of the puzzle and minimal help integrating the ideas into a usable coherent approach.

As for the link above, respectfully I met this guy, and I really don't think he knows much (nice guy, but a practitioner???).  He certainly didn't seem to have much to say when he was promoting the Kuppe lecture which I thought was a monumental waste of time. Put it this way, this approach wouldn't be something I'd recommend (for what my opinion's worth).

Again, I'd say McLaren's work is the exception.  There are also people out there prepared to help others to get their heads around these concepts.  I found getting a trading group together of people keen on sharing ideas worked very well.  (By the way, Bunyip mentioned he didn't have an affiliation with McLaren, and either do I for the record, just so that's clear.)

This idea of "pressure points" I suspect is a SITM creation.  I agree with the criticism laid out that many of these don't really amount to much when viewed in a one dimensional uninformed way.  Some dates are relevant and other's aren't.  That's because they are being viewed in isolation without reference to the pattern of trend.  In my view working without the critical pieces of the puzzle is like trying to fly a plane with key components missing (like the engine for example).

Time cycle analysis works very differently.  Yes the concept of division of the range (price) works in fractions (eights and thirds) like many people use this kind of extension/retracement tool.  Time while having similarities to the price range is more complex because you're adding a whole dimension/paradigm of thinking into the mix because it involves both the relationship to price and to pattern (at least the way I do it).  What does this mean?  It means you need to be able to perceive markets in a multi dimensional way - I look at the pattern first, then time, then price in that order (although this is not necessarily always the case, there are some situations where price can be of primary interest).  McLaren's time factor work I found was a good starting point.

Note that there can be multiple cycles running concurrently (this makes things messy sometimes if you don't understand and recognize this).  Also, the pattern of trend tells you a lot about what is going on.  Also you need to look in multiple time frames (daily charts, weekly, monthly) to understand the different trends active at the same time - a move in one time frame (e.g. Daily) is the dominant trend, while in another (e.g. Monthly) it is a counter trend.  This is critical in my view.  Also wave theory can be very helpful here too.

There can also be harmonic cycles running concurrently in the same time frame (daily/weekly/monthly).  This can also become confusing if you aren't aware of it.  If you perceive these, then the whole process of determining probabilities and trades becomes much simpler.

Also, just because you hit a key date in a cycle you have identified does not mean that trend is over and a reversal will occur (and you can be wrong when you do this on several fronts - which cycle, determination of where it is in the cycle, placement of key points in the cycle, missing other cycles running concurrently, different cycles in other time frames, and this is off the top of my head, there are many more).

When you hit a key time and price (if you're projection is valid enough you hit these), you can get extensions to a cycle or a retracement for a specific increment (like the division of the range in price into eights and thirds, same for a time period, but it is not that simple - there are multiple inputs to determine when and how to do this).  Also, sometimes the market trends to the cent or date, but sometimes it can be out by a margin - this is common, and there are reasons for this.

How markets trade into "key dates" (assuming your analysis is valid) tells you a lot about the trend.  What we're trying to do is to constantly assess the risk to our trade, and determine when the trend is at risk.  This is so we know when to take partial profits to ensure winning trades don't become losing trades.  How you take profits can vary widely.  Me, I have a range of alternatives.  Full exit, partial exit (e.g. half, one third for less risky trades, two thirds for more risky trades), or hedging (diagonal ratio back spread, direct sale in a different strike but same expiry, mix of futures and options in multiple time frames and ratios etc).

So once you've hit a time/price point, this is a point to assess what to do.  Some are where key reversals occur, some are continuation points, some result in brief counter trends.  Some are minor in the cycle you are looking at, others are major.  But it is the pattern of trend that is critical.  This must be viewed in the context of the pattern and the aggregate of all the cycles that are active in multiple time frames, and any harmonic cycles that are active.  This is multi-dimensional unlike other approaches, hence it must be contextual.  This is where most people flounder.  In my view trying to use this kind of approach without understanding this is like flying blind.

Hope this helps

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

In answer to the question "why are Gann's materials not straight forward", this is a perspective - My suspicion as to why the Gann material is so incoherent and convoluted is that we just don't know what is valuable or not on face value:

1) Lifetimes work:  These materials were created over a lifetime, and like anyone dealing with a complex subject discarded some ideas along the way, perhaps erroneously sometimes - some ideas if improved that were discarded may prove useful to someone talented enough to enhance the idea.  Other ideas were modified and refined.

2) The breadth of the materials - there is a lot to go through, and what there is is not ordered in a conventional sense.

3) The authenticity of the materials:  a lot of the materials are apocryphal (of dubious authenticity) - there are stories the works were in a large storage area and sold off to a collector in an "as is" condition - in disorder.  For me this means we can't be sure of what came from where.  It's a bit like the debates people have over the "correct" version of ancient texts.

4) The clarity of the materials:  This isn't a cogent treatise.  This is a "scrambled egg" / "Dog's breakfast" of materials, some almost completely incomprehensible, others I suspect deliberate red herrings, and the occasional lightning flash of inspiration buried in the rambling text.  Gann wasn't that good at expressing himself (assuming the surviving materials attributed to him are authentic).

5) Deliberate misdirection:  Gann perhaps deliberately threw in some red herrings too just to make things hard, or so we're told.  There are a lot of errors mathematically in the original works, so I'm not sure if it was sloppy work or deliberate misinformation, or some kind of "code" that some people believe he was communicating through.


So in my view it's up to each individual to do their own research and think it through.  Because of the above reasons this makes the value to a trader/investor of any secondary source necessarily highly variable.  Some sources are very selective (sometimes in a worthwhile way, and sometimes not.).  Yes there is a lot of nonsense intermingled with the "good stuff".  Hence my suggestion to go to a good source and locate what is of value quickly.  some areas will appeal to one person and not another, and some areas require a certain disposition to grasp.  Some areas are possibly redundant, or even erroneous.

That's why in this field you can't get a straight answer because it just doesn't lend itself to the same treatment as a "Guppy" book for example.  Even the works of Elliott, and Prechter and Frost have been interpreted and reinterpreted (Poser, Neely, Fischer, etc etc).  Just because it takes a little bit of intellectual elbow grease doesn't necessarily lead to the conclusion there is no value in it.

 I would have thought that the amount of times wavepicker and I showed that forecasting styles can be very useful to understanding the way markets trend would at least open up the possibilities that there may be something of value to these perspectives (EW and parts of "Gann").  The next point is the question of how to trade using this analysis.  I have tried to show that this analysis allows a very wide range of approaches.  Variables such as trading/investing time frame, strategy (which instrument in which market), and system (entry, exit, hedging, and profit taking rules) can vary widely just like any of the other paradigms.  Even more so because there are several different ways you can use the analysis.

For me I trade pieces of a move based on probabilities.  I trade very differently in different time frames, and with different instruments.  Each approach is custom built based on the variables.  In one example I look for fast trends and trade a specific part of a trend, and get out when the trend is at risk.  Other times I trade counter trends in a contrarian fashion.  Sometimes I do both simultaneously.  Sometimes I look for arbitrage opportunities.  The possibilities are endless, and I see it as empowering oneself to paint ones own picture of probability and risk management.

Hope that makes sense.

Mag


----------



## explod

I promised Tech/a that I would discuss Gann in a few days, however we are going away to visit a Brother in law who became ill over the weekend.

The book I have is Gann's own text and was published about 1946 which I wil reference when I get it out of storage.

His language is straight forward and at the time reminded me of the writings of my Grandfather who was prolific in writing to the press for a better deal for wheat farmers. 

Sometimes these older texts have been loaded onto the net as one I read frecently on money during the great depression by a fellow named Von Misers.   The Age yesterday ran a piece by Emile Zola on a piece of fiction prefaced on the fall of banks around 1880.   Sounded just like Wall Street today.  My ears pricked on this writer as he was a childhood friend and confidant of Paul Cezanne who in my view was the father of modern art.  Two kids who made it big time in two different fields; unusual.

I am not placed to say yea or nay as to such contributions to trading which is the subject of this thread but I do assert that some of this old material has a lot to offer in understanding where we have come from and on which we may build a better understanding to make our own choices for the future


----------



## tech/a

There is much I agree with in Moggies post. 

Thanks Explod.
The question posed is it a good basis for trading.
I guess my extension to this is it worth the 10,000 hrs to become proficient enough in applying it.

Its the application of the analysis I'm interested in.
Does it give consistent profit.
Is it stand alone analysis.
Can I get the same or better results using a much simpler to understand method.

Without demonstration I and many others it seems are left with NO as the answer to 1 and 2 and yes to 3


----------



## Timmy

Magdoran – thanks for these two posts re Gann.  

One of my peeves with Gann, and more so those who discuss his techniques, is the use of convoluted jargon and attempts to shroud the methods in a veil of secrecy and mystery, as if one needs to access some secret code to understand it all.  Your two posts above show that ideas can be conveyed in a clear and concise way, thanks for that.

For anyone wanting a well structured and clear introduction to Gann, and for FWIW, I found James Hyerczyk’s book, _Pattern, Price and Time_ to be very helpful.


----------



## motorway

> Note that there can be multiple cycles running concurrently (this makes things messy sometimes if you don't understand and recognize this). Also, the pattern of trend tells you a lot about what is going on. Also you need to look in multiple time frames (daily charts, weekly, monthly) to understand the different trends active at the same time - a move in one time frame (e.g. Daily) is the dominant trend, while in another (e.g. Monthly) it is a counter trend. This is critical in my view. Also wave theory can be very helpful here too.




If you want to follow / predict / anticipate  etc Trends/cycles/waves

You  have to follow it down and up through the various time frames as this one trend slows and speeds

To think in terms of Time frames is an error

What ever is moving it moves NOW  right now in the present moment... But the speed of moving is dynamic

( when I drive My car to  a location . I just drive, there is no weekly daily monthy about it. And if you have a collision .. It does not unfold on different time frames How can it ? Impossible )

Wave theory ? How can you possible follow a wave in one time frame or  even multi time frames ?

You have to follow the wave as it changes speed 
Across all Time frames , The wave crosses all time frames because from the waves point of view They don't exist..

( If you want to avoid collision you do it right now , and then it's gone
You dont't have to avoid the same collision on different time frames.. )

You have to move and FIRST...

This is  the difference between Dynamic methods
and Static ones..





motorway


----------



## motorway

> Mr. W. D. Gann says the trouble with most chart makers is that they work with only one factor - space movements or charts which record one to two points up or down - whereas there are three or more factors to be considered, space, volume and time. The most vital is time, and back of that is the cause of recurrence of high or low prices at certain intervals.
> 1922




By early 1900's There was a proliferation of Point and figure charting methods using geometrical angles... Gann seems well aware of this.

( They were not space charts but charts of movement through space *Big Difference* Like his mistake with Harriman , He does not seem to be aware of this )

Why did he translate such methods to tIME charts...

In His own words



> W. D. GANN FINANCIAL SERVICES
> 
> This Service possesses many superior, advantages over other classes of service, because it has the one thing lacking in all other services-the time element. My discoveries of a Master Time Factor and the Great Cycle enable me to forecast markets *years in advance*. I do not depend on space charts based on space movements alone, because these would make errors and cause losses. I use volume combined with the proper time charts, which help me to determine the technical position of the stocks much better and a long time before the statistical position is shown. Time tells on all things.
> 
> The object of this Service is to give you valuable advice based on scientific methods and to show you how to help yourself. Only a fool makes mistakes without learning something. I have benefited because I have made mistakes in the past and made losses. I can show you-how to avoid the mistakes that most of the traders make in Wall Street.
> 
> Investors and traders are always willing to pay for what will help them to make a greater success. It pays to get the best scientific knowledge, because the best is always the cheapest in the long run and you can not expect to get something good for nothing. Experience has taught me that the best way to help others is to show them how to help themselves, and if I can get subscribers to read my books and learn my Methods, they make a greater success following my Service.
> 
> After you have learned all of the rules laid down in TRUTH OF THE STOCK TAPE and WALL STREET STOCK SELECTOR and have learned how to apply them, I am sure you will agree that I have given you more than your money's worth in these books. You will then be ready for a post-graduate course and will probably want to know how to forecast according to my Master Time Factor,
> 
> * and determine the years when stocks will have big advances and reach final tops and also the years and the cycles when panicky declines are indicated.
> *
> 
> W. D. GANN





*Gann could tell you what stock to buy  or sell..............Years in Advance and WHEN *

Why ?. because he knew what time would show on a clock

Years in advance  




motorway


----------



## gazelle

One of my peeves with Gann, and more so those who discuss his techniques, is the use of convoluted jargon and attempts to shroud the methods in a veil of secrecy and mystery, as if one needs to access some secret code to understand it all. Your two posts above show that ideas can be conveyed in a clear and concise way, thanks for that.

I can understand your frustration in trying to correctly interpret and apply the techniques and strategies of Gann but it is very hard work and does require considerable application and alot of research time .  One thing I have learnt is you cannot just read Gann with the expectation of learning and applying his principles in a short period of time . Gann had an extensive range of techniques from 50% mid zones . Geometric Angles . Permanent Charts and alot more . The Geometric Angles for instance have to be properly calibrated to what instrument is being traded which is why some people prefer to use hand drawn charts . Geometric proprtion can occur on several levels both in the Fibbonacci and Gann sequence so an understanding of the symmetrical relatioship between time and price co ordinates is quite an important study also . If market structure is in directional alignment with a Geometric time and price relationship it might indicate the possibility of a change in trend . There is always a tendency that something might happen at a predetermined time or price level and the only way we will know if this becomes an actuality is after the event . Time is an important componet and Time is multidimensional in nature . Gann used the proportionate parts of the circle as a measuring gauge which also mark out the change of seasons . So there is a lot to learn and it takes time to integrate the various techniques and apply them in a logical and practical manner .

The position of the observer is different to the position of the practitioner becasuse the practitioner has has walked the path and made alot of mistakes and met alot of challeges on the way .  This is not an exact science at least for me but it has bought me closer to understanding the laws and cycles that govern and affect market trends at various points in time . Gann practitioners are quiet and not forthcoming not because they have the keys to the market but because they have worked dilligently and possibly uncovered a few aspects that they would like to retain under their own intellectual property . Its like anything there are possibilities and probabilities but turning a probabilty into an actuality is the difficult part .

Over the next short while I will try and list some potential trades that are on the radar . they might be in a few weeks or a few mths , it all depends on how things setup . Please understand that I will not offer a breakdown of my trading technique but if anyone is genuine and wants to learn about some foundation techniques I would be happy to help out .
A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .


----------



## Sicilian Trader

gazelle said:


> A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .




Sounds promising, looking forward to the analysis.

Thanks Gazelle


----------



## tech/a

> If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .




You dont have a charting package?
You dont have a Picture capability like Printkey?


----------



## gazelle

I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine . 
Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .


----------



## Trader Paul

gazelle said:


> I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
> Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .






Hi Gazelle,

CBA ..... chart attached, marked with 2003-2007 leg up & 50% retracement
targets ahead, for both time and price ..... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Boggo

Trader Paul said:


> Hi Gazelle,
> 
> CBA ..... chart attached, marked with 2003-2007 leg up & 50% retracement
> targets ahead, for both time and price .....
> 
> have a great day
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====




Paul, are you telling us that it took all of that Gann analysis to tell us where 50% retracement is, I can eyeball that on a blank chart !


----------



## Trader Paul

gazelle said:


> A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .
> 
> I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
> Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .




 

Hi Gazelle,

CBA ..... previous chart was simply a longer-term overview ..... so, give us 
the specific dates, that you want highlighted and we'll repost the CBA chart, accordingly ..... 

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## motorway

gazelle said:


> I have Gann trader and a very well used Square of Nine .
> Gann Trader works on Dos so it is almost impossible to capture a copy of the screen and post it , I had my friend over a few months ago who is very good with computers because I am not , and he couldnt do it . which is ok , just follow my request and if someone posts a chart it will be clearer for people to follow . I will only discuss price techniques though .




Square of nine relates to an interesting question

How share prices trend

This was quite a controversy from about the 1920s

People realized you could not draw long term straight trend lines on linear charts
price trends on such charts were curves....

One solution was the log scale chart where curves become straight lines
This has  become standard approach today

eg esp with multi year charts

But there is problems with it with low prices
and volatility ...

Square root scales through the 1930s and 50s had strong advocates

This was seen as a parabolic scale  midway between arithmetic and log

One well know TA exponent uses it today and it survives also in uses where it isn't seen as such ...

Templeton used it..

as did Dunnigan mentioned in the thread by weird

on Gann



> point, Mr. Gann, or whoever, came to realize that stock charts DO NOT  have a "strong tendency" to follow linear trend lines, which is true for the long term trends, and then concluded,  at the time, that they must be following a PARABOLA.  Unfortunately, HE, she, or they, were wrong.  Although, HE, she, or they: were on the right track!
> 
> After having over fifty years of historical stock data to work with, it is absolutely clear that stock trends have a "strong tendency" to follow EXPONENTIAL GROWTH CURVES  ( This is log charts )




I do not think it is quite that clear
there is still the problem with low prices

eg for Dunnigan this was under $40

And there is still the problem of where the true halfway point is
but maybe  not if you define it dynamically.



motorway


----------



## Magdoran

motorway said:


> If you want to follow / predict / anticipate  etc Trends/cycles/waves
> 
> You  have to follow it down and up through the various time frames as this one trend slows and speeds
> 
> To think in terms of Time frames is an error
> 
> What ever is moving it moves NOW  right now in the present moment... But the speed of moving is dynamic
> 
> ( when I drive My car to  a location . I just drive, there is no weekly daily monthy about it. And if you have a collision .. It does not unfold on different time frames How can it ? Impossible )
> 
> Wave theory ? How can you possible follow a wave in one time frame or  even multi time frames ?
> 
> You have to follow the wave as it changes speed
> Across all Time frames , The wave crosses all time frames because from the waves point of view They don't exist..
> 
> ( If you want to avoid collision you do it right now , and then it's gone
> You don't have to avoid the same collision on different time frames.. )
> 
> You have to move and FIRST...
> 
> This is  the difference between Dynamic methods
> and Static ones..
> 
> motorway



Ah, the enigmatic "motorway",

Nice analogy with the car, but aren't we talking about two totally different paradigms here (chalk and cheese?)?

I don't understand your point.  You need to clearly define precisely what you mean by the term "Dynamic" (this term seems a misnomer from my point of view when you are describing what to me looks like a two dimensional viewpoint of the market).

From your comment, I don't think you understand my point at all, or conceptually grasped what I'm describing.  Otherwise if you have developed a superior understanding, why aren't you making precise time and price calls to the day, or to the cent, or both?  I can't remember you making a call?  If you have, please post a link so I can see them.

Let me be clear.  McLaren holds that there are vibrations running through all  markets at all times.  In some cases these cycles can be evident for decades.  Just like in EW theory you have different degrees when counting waves (as demonstrated by wavepicker for those who've really studied his posts and have grasped them), the same is true for the magnitude of cycles.  A counter trend in one time frame (monthly) can be the dominant trend in the daily chart - like the correction in 1987 was a counter trend to the broader bull trend in the longer term.

What is difficult to understand about that?  It's about looking at the macro and the micro, and being aware of the context of the micro.  How hard is that?  Hence a monthly chart tells a different story to a daily chart, doesn't it?

So it's more like being an observer from a satellite of traffic patterns in a city rather then driving the car.  You can rapidly see where the congestion is (forgive the pun) well before you encounter it!

You can borrow my GPS for you car if you like motorway!  Might help you navigate a bit better!

Regards

Magdoran


----------



## gazelle

Those long term squares can be significant turning points in particular when 1/2 of the square in time and price lineup but as this date is quite a time in the future we will wait and just look at the position of CBA . My initial expectation was for a top into this date which could still be the case . The second expectation is for a counter trend low into this date if the market continues heading down into the 23rd . Either one of these outcomes is quite acceptable and think due to the nature of the cycles and times moving into proportional alignment this date will either give us the opportunity to position long at the time of a counter trend low  or if the first scenario works out we will look at going short if time is technically validated by price in some form of geometric capacity. Having two possibilities isnt really a problem because if you have a comprehensive understanding of mkt structure and the type of trend moving into the forecast date you just let the mkt confirm your analysis . Having two possible scenarios requires two sets of price calculations . potential downside targets should be identified printed out and kept on your desk and on the nominated date if the stock is running down into time we have a structural roadmap on where we might expect price to reverse . this could be a minor 50% level or it could be a .618 range extension . if you have all of the bases covered both upside and downside targets  price on that day will confirm your analysis . As the move eventuated from the 23rd Jan primary low and the 9th March secondary low these are important calculation points . Ranges should be labbelled in time not trading days and ranges should be labelled by price . this is all we have to work with . Most people have no idea about the proper application of the Square of Nine . You will note that the sp500 low at 667 was square or 90 degs from the 6th March or 345 Deg .


----------



## motorway

Magdoran said:


> Ah, the enigmatic "motorway",
> 
> 
> 
> I don't understand your point.  You need to clearly define precisely what you mean by the term "Dynamic"
> 
> Regards
> 
> Magdoran




The difference between following something dynamically 
or statically....

Through time frames dynamically or in a time frame statically..

There is only one high on the chart and one low
in relation to other highs and lows
There is not a daily weekly or monthly high or low

If your string the course of sales out keeping the structure of the spacing (dynamic time )  There is only a series of events  happening in different  moments..

You can zoom in or out but only by keeping the dynamic time structure
The same spacing proportions.. Can you keep proportion.

The course of sales is not spaced out in clock time periods

The analogy with driving the car is correct in a sense 

They move the same in that 
both are dynamic , they change speed
sometimes they stop , sometimes they travel fast

you can only predict if you know what the dynamic time will be
in the future...

You can only predict where the car will be if you know how fast it will be travelling , tomorrow ..

But you only know how fast it is travelling now and how fast it has been travelling...

Unlike the clock you can not predict in the same way with dynamic time

I know what time will be on the clock a 100 years from now
But that is the beguiling nature of static time..



motorway


----------



## motorway

Magdoran said:


> So it's more like being an observer from a satellite of traffic patterns in a city rather then driving the car.  You can rapidly see where the congestion is (forgive the pun) well before you encounter it!
> 
> You can borrow my GPS for you car if you like motorway!  Might help you navigate a bit better!
> 
> Regards
> 
> Magdoran




I think you do understand
When you zoom out you are still only looking at the present moment

You are not  looking into the future

yes we can zoom out and look back in time and see the past price behaviour
and see what lies from that point up ahead till the prsent moment

yes we can see the past and the present

But we can not see tomorrow

You are looking back to the car from the congestion that exists in the present.
here is where your use of the anaolgy fails  , All these cars exist in the one dynamic moment in the present,,

There are no coarse of sales that exist now that are up ahead that we can see in the present moment.. 

What you are saying is that ( the car congestion )

You look at what is on the chart now and take postions several weeks back in the past


motorway


----------



## Trader Paul

gazelle said:


> Those long term squares can be significant turning points in particular when 1/2 of the square in time and price lineup but as this date is quite a time in the future we will wait and just look at the position of CBA . My initial expectation was for a top into this date which could still be the case . The second expectation is for a counter trend low into this date if the market continues heading down into the 23rd . Either one of these outcomes is quite acceptable and think due to the nature of the cycles and times moving into proportional alignment this date will either give us the opportunity to position long at the time of a counter trend low  or if the first scenario works out we will look at going short if time is technically validated by price in some form of geometric capacity. Having two possibilities isnt really a problem because if you have a comprehensive understanding of mkt structure and the type of trend moving into the forecast date you just let the mkt confirm your analysis . Having two possible scenarios requires two sets of price calculations . potential downside targets should be identified printed out and kept on your desk and on the nominated date if the stock is running down into time we have a structural roadmap on where we might expect price to reverse . this could be a minor 50% level or it could be a .618 range extension . if you have all of the bases covered both upside and downside targets  price on that day will confirm your analysis . As the move eventuated from the 23rd Jan primary low and the 9th March secondary low these are important calculation points . Ranges should be labbelled in time not trading days and ranges should be labelled by price . this is all we have to work with . Most people have no idea about the proper application of the Square of Nine . You will note that the sp500 low at 667 was square or 90 degs from the 6th March or 345 Deg .






Hi Gazelle,

Updated CBA chart ..... :0

CBA ... January and March 2009 lows come in 45 degrees apart and your
23042009 target date is exactly square (90 degrees) from 23012009 low.

Today's gap-down in price action also formed a spinning top, which will
be confirmed by a break and close below today's low ... making for further
weakness, going into your target date ..... 

..... will leave the rest to you ... !~!

have a great day

  paul  



=====


----------



## gazelle

we can determine that the the mass of a moving object increases as the velocity of the object increases but how can we understand and calculate the underlying laws or characteristics that are governing and controlling  the impulses  and magnitude of such an instrument . A stationary car might accelerate between two linear points at a predetermined speed which enables us to calculate an approximate time of arrival between the two projected points being the starting point and the arrival point . If the vehicle is travelling at a predetrmined speed between the two points of reference we will be able to approximately calculate an estimated point of arrival at a time into the future but the outcome is lagely dependant upon the charcateristics of the driver and what events may transpire between point A & B . Classical Logic would indicate that a vehicle travelling at 60mph at a starting point of Point A would travel 60 miles in 60 minutes to arrive at point B . This is a pure linear example and doesnt take into consideration the possible variables that the driver may encounter on the way between the two points . Is the road straight and is the driver able to maintain a fixed speed between the two pre ordained points or are there are series of bends in the road that  may affect the projected time distance between the two pionts . Classical physics tells us that a specific amount of force is required to increase the velocity of a moving object by a given amount which is why a given amount of force applied for a given amount of time will increase a single freight car to a greater velocity than the same amount of force applied for the same amount of time to an entire train . All observations are in the the proper context according to the observer .


----------



## gazelle

Yogi 45 & 90 fixed cycles . there is alot more though .


----------



## motorway

gazelle said:


> we can determine that the the mass of a moving object increases as the velocity of the object increases but how can we understand and calculate the underlying laws or characteristics that are governing and controlling  the impulses  and magnitude of such an instrument . A stationary car might accelerate between two linear points at a predetermined speed which enables us to calculate an approximate time of arrival between the two projected points being the starting point and the arrival point . If the vehicle is travelling at a predetrmined speed between the two points of reference we will be able to approximately calculate an estimated point of arrival at a time into the future but the outcome is lagely dependant upon the charcateristics of the driver and what events may transpire between point A & B . Classical Logic would indicate that a vehicle travelling at 60mph at a starting point of Point A would travel 60 miles in 60 minutes to arrive at point B . This is a pure linear example and doesnt take into consideration the possible variables that the driver may encounter on the way between the two points . Is the road straight and is the driver able to maintain a fixed speed between the two pre ordained points or are there are series of bends in the road that  may affect the projected time distance between the two pionts . Classical physics tells us that a specific amount of force is required to increase the velocity of a moving object by a given amount which is why a given amount of force applied for a given amount of time will increase a single freight car to a greater velocity than the same amount of force applied for the same amount of time to an entire train . All observations are in the the proper context according to the observer .




yes but that is the point that is dead reckoning from what is happening ( (nothing like Magdoran looking into the future and seeing tops and bottoms with his birds eye view and taking positions today)

We can certainly make forecasts like that
But that is far from predicting like Gann talks about in the above quotes





People make such predictions all the time
Straight line projections from what is happening..

OIL ( it is moving at such a speed.. with increasing momentum ) --->$200  !!

etc



motorway


----------



## gazelle

Thanks Yogi . You have always been a distant friend and someone who operates on the level . Right or wrong doesnt matter to me as it is Gods will . 
I am not disciplined and strong enough to be religious and walk the line but I still believe .


----------



## nunthewiser

good grief !


----------



## Bobby

nunthewiser said:


> good grief !




 ~


----------



## gazelle

I am sorry I had  a crack at you Bobby . I am sure you are a nice guy . As you know I study and swear by the principles of WD Gann , this suits me and is everything I have worked towards , what you do is your conern . Stick to what you know and works best for you .


----------



## Bobby

gazelle said:


> I am sorry I had  a crack at you Bobby . I am sure you are a nice guy . As you know I study and swear by the principles of WD Gann , this suits me and is everything I have worked towards , what you do is your conern . Stick to what you know and works best for you .




Ok Gazelle , good luck with your Gann trading .

 :bier:


----------



## nunthewiser

Bobby said:


> Ok Gazelle , good luck with your Gann trading .
> 
> :bier:





what trading ?


----------



## gazelle

I would be interested in what you are looking at Bobby . If you want another perspective I might be able to help . tell me where you are ..


----------



## Bobby

gazelle said:


> I would be interested in what you are looking at Bobby . If you want another perspective I might be able to help . tell me where you are ..




Thanks for the offer but I'm happy being just a discretionary trader now.

Off to bed  , sweet dreams


----------



## tech/a

nunthewiser said:


> what trading ?




I dont think its about TRADING
its more a Study.


Similar to Philosophy.
I'm certain Gann was a reincarnation of Lao Tzu.


----------



## Sicilian Trader

gazelle said:


> A trade that I am looking at is CBA . There is a possibility that the stock might complete an intermediate high into Thursday the 23rd April . If this theory is supported by increased volatity and other aspects I will take the trade . If someone would like to post an eod chart with dates under the important highs and lows and corresponding price points we will do some work on calculating potential price points .




Hi Gazelle

Have been reading with interest. 

Can you walk me through your trade rationale for CBA? 
Did you end up taking the trade? 
How many units did you buy and using what instrument?
When did you enter? 
What is your price target? 
What was/is your risk on CBA? 
Where did you put your stop loss?

I am just interested to see if all this analysis/study actually resulted in a trade of some kind (apologies if I have missed any answers to these questions in your previous posts).

Thanks 
ST


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> What's the conventional tech analysis?




Tech you haven't answered my question. What is conventional tech analysis?


----------



## gazelle

ST read post 184 .


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Tech you haven't answered my question. What is conventional tech analysis?



Anyone? Should I ignore myself too?


----------



## nunthewiser

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Anyone? Should I ignore myself too?




no idea m8 i use my own methods , dont care a hoot how anyone else trades to be honest


----------



## tech/a

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Anyone? Should I ignore myself too?





Sorry I didnt see it initially not ignoring you.
How could I!

*Conventional Analysis*
Oscillators. Pretty well most of those which come with the standard software packages like Metastock.
The stuff most people clog up their charts with.
Yu know the ones all crap no price action.


----------



## Sicilian Trader

gazelle said:


> ST read post 184 .




murphy's law!

thanks Gazelle


----------



## sails

Magdoran said:


> Hi Margaret,
> 
> Hope you are well. Interesting to read your perspective on this.
> 
> I tend to agree with your assessment on some of these courses.  The experience you had in getting some benefit in projecting while finding it difficult to actually trade from effectively seems a common complaint.  I suspect part of the problem is that students of these courses are only given pieces of the puzzle and minimal help integrating the ideas into a usable coherent approach.
> 
> As for the link above, respectfully I met this guy, and I really don't think he knows much (nice guy, but a practitioner???).  He certainly didn't seem to have much to say when he was promoting the Kuppe lecture which I thought was a monumental waste of time. Put it this way, this approach wouldn't be something I'd recommend (for what my opinion's worth).
> 
> Again, I'd say McLaren's work is the exception.  There are also people out there prepared to help others to get their heads around these concepts.  I found getting a trading group together of people keen on sharing ideas worked very well.  (By the way, Bunyip mentioned he didn't have an affiliation with McLaren, and either do I for the record, just so that's clear.)
> 
> This idea of "pressure points" I suspect is a SITM creation.  I agree with the criticism laid out that many of these don't really amount to much when viewed in a one dimensional uninformed way.  Some dates are relevant and other's aren't.  That's because they are being viewed in isolation without reference to the pattern of trend.  In my view working without the critical pieces of the puzzle is like trying to fly a plane with key components missing (like the engine for example).
> 
> Time cycle analysis works very differently.  Yes the concept of division of the range (price) works in fractions (eights and thirds) like many people use this kind of extension/retracement tool.  Time while having similarities to the price range is more complex because you're adding a whole dimension/paradigm of thinking into the mix because it involves both the relationship to price and to pattern (at least the way I do it).  What does this mean?  It means you need to be able to perceive markets in a multi dimensional way - I look at the pattern first, then time, then price in that order (although this is not necessarily always the case, there are some situations where price can be of primary interest).  McLaren's time factor work I found was a good starting point.
> 
> Note that there can be multiple cycles running concurrently (this makes things messy sometimes if you don't understand and recognize this).  Also, the pattern of trend tells you a lot about what is going on.  Also you need to look in multiple time frames (daily charts, weekly, monthly) to understand the different trends active at the same time - a move in one time frame (e.g. Daily) is the dominant trend, while in another (e.g. Monthly) it is a counter trend.  This is critical in my view.  Also wave theory can be very helpful here too.
> 
> There can also be harmonic cycles running concurrently in the same time frame (daily/weekly/monthly).  This can also become confusing if you aren't aware of it.  If you perceive these, then the whole process of determining probabilities and trades becomes much simpler.
> 
> Also, just because you hit a key date in a cycle you have identified does not mean that trend is over and a reversal will occur (and you can be wrong when you do this on several fronts - which cycle, determination of where it is in the cycle, placement of key points in the cycle, missing other cycles running concurrently, different cycles in other time frames, and this is off the top of my head, there are many more).
> 
> When you hit a key time and price (if you're projection is valid enough you hit these), you can get extensions to a cycle or a retracement for a specific increment (like the division of the range in price into eights and thirds, same for a time period, but it is not that simple - there are multiple inputs to determine when and how to do this).  Also, sometimes the market trends to the cent or date, but sometimes it can be out by a margin - this is common, and there are reasons for this.
> 
> How markets trade into "key dates" (assuming your analysis is valid) tells you a lot about the trend.  What we're trying to do is to constantly assess the risk to our trade, and determine when the trend is at risk.  This is so we know when to take partial profits to ensure winning trades don't become losing trades.  How you take profits can vary widely.  Me, I have a range of alternatives.  Full exit, partial exit (e.g. half, one third for less risky trades, two thirds for more risky trades), or hedging (diagonal ratio back spread, direct sale in a different strike but same expiry, mix of futures and options in multiple time frames and ratios etc).
> 
> So once you've hit a time/price point, this is a point to assess what to do.  Some are where key reversals occur, some are continuation points, some result in brief counter trends.  Some are minor in the cycle you are looking at, others are major.  But it is the pattern of trend that is critical.  This must be viewed in the context of the pattern and the aggregate of all the cycles that are active in multiple time frames, and any harmonic cycles that are active.  This is multi-dimensional unlike other approaches, hence it must be contextual.  This is where most people flounder.  In my view trying to use this kind of approach without understanding this is like flying blind.
> 
> Hope this helps
> 
> Mag




Hi Magdoran,

Yes, keeping well, thanks.  Trust you are well on your way to recovery.

Thanks for the in depth reply - and I do agree with your views.  I haven't seen or spoken with David for quite a while now, nor have I heard him actually speak on the subject of Gann, so your assessment may very well be right.  And I did explain in a later post (I think to Bunyip), that McLaren's DVDs would actually be the first choice for more education on the subject of time.  I have thoroughly enjoyed McLaren's ebook and really like the fact there is so little waffle and he gets straight to the nuts and bolts.

Probably, what prompted my post about looking further into David's course is that I have always wanted to understand how to use the square of nine.  Recently, someone was asking about historical, intraday SPI data and I remembered Adest used to have it.  I then noticed the subject list for David's Gann course which included so many of the areas I missed out on.  A few years ago, we paid $500 for me to go to a half day seminar and the main reason was that the Square of Nine was advertised as one of the subjects for the day - plus all the hype on how good it is.  However, all of about 10 mins was spent on it right at the end of the session - with the statement that it would be taught more fully at the next (expensive) module.   

I also agree with your analogy of only being given a few pieces of a puzzle with minimal help to try and put those otherwise obscure pieces together.  And thanks for sharing how you put some of those loose ends together.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Here you go Sails.

All about Ganns square of nine.
http://www.tradingfives.com/store/so9book.html


Even better than using a pencil and ruler here is a calculator.

My $6,000 bill is in the mail.


http://www.xmlworks.com/gann/javascript/


----------



## sails

tech/a said:


> Here you go Sails.
> 
> All about Ganns square of nine.
> http://www.tradingfives.com/store/so9book.html
> 
> 
> Even better than using a pencil and ruler here is a calculator.
> 
> My $6,000 bill is in the mail.
> 
> 
> http://www.xmlworks.com/gann/javascript/




Thanks for the links Tech - although think I've paid my dues for Gann courses - always seem to get short changed... 

Actually, a simple google search has a bit of info on it as well.  Found this article by Jason Sidney - he was on the staff of SITM a few years ago before it was bought out by Hubb.  http://www.marketinsight.com.au/articles/article.php?name=Ganns_Square_of_Nine


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Sorry I didnt see it initially not ignoring you.
> How could I!
> 
> *Conventional Analysis*
> Oscillators. Pretty well most of those which come with the standard software packages like Metastock.
> The stuff most people clog up their charts with.
> Yu know the ones all crap no price action.




Ah Tech, I thought you had taken my question the wrong way, thanks for your response. Tradeguider has some of those conventional indicators too. As you know any indicator will be of value as long as price itself is taken into account.

Cheers..


----------



## tech/a

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Ah Tech, I thought you had taken my question the wrong way, thanks for your response. Tradeguider has some of those conventional indicators too. As you know any indicator will be of value as long as price itself is taken into account.
> 
> Cheers..





Snake.
Your presuming I'm using tradeguider in a conventional manner.

I will add that I have used "Canned" indicators in systems testing but very rarely. T/T has one an EMA.

But for discretionary trading not a one.


----------



## motorway

tech/a said:


> Snake.
> Your presuming I'm using tradeguider in a conventional manner.
> 
> I will add that I have used "Canned" indicators in systems testing but very rarely. T/T has one an EMA.
> 
> But for discretionary trading not a one.




EW is an indicator
There has to be Five waves etc

Harriman would today use his money
to create five wave corrective patterns
and three wave impulsive

That is how he made it...
Taking advantage of all such indicators
even if he did not know them

He would still use the liquidity they generated

Harriman was one of the original models for smart money
( $700,000,000 mil per year in 1907  )

eg
It was he that said what you could not sell at $150 ( stock selling at $150)
you could sell if you put it up to  $180 first and then sell as much as you want all the way back down to a $150

motorway


----------



## motorway

sails said:


> Thanks for the links Tech - although think I've paid my dues for Gann courses - always seem to get short changed...
> 
> Actually, a simple google search has a bit of info on it as well.  Found this article by Jason Sidney - he was on the staff of SITM a few years ago before it was bought out by Hubb.  http://www.marketinsight.com.au/articles/article.php?name=Ganns_Square_of_Nine





It is just away of drawing  a square root scaled trend line
on a linear scaled chart..

Think of a stock that moves from .01 to $500

on a linear scale chart  you could not draw straight trend lines

so you could use a log chart...

But say the 50% level was very important to you and you wanted the geometry of the chart to line up --> 50% = halfway point.

You could draw a log scaled trend line and overlay it on the linear chart

This is what Gann was doing but overlaying a square root scaled trendline

...

Go back to the log example
You know where the straight scaled trendline will be broken

even though you are working off a linear chart

NOW will it be support

ONLY if someone wants it to be


motorway


----------



## tech/a

motorway said:


> EW is an indicator
> There has to be Five waves etc
> 
> Harriman would today use his money
> to create five wave corrective patterns
> and three wave impulsive
> 
> That is how he made it...
> Taking advantage of all such indicators
> even if he did not know them
> 
> He would still use the liquidity they generated
> 
> Harriman was one of the original models for smart money
> ( $700,000,000 mil per year in 1907  )
> 
> eg
> It was he that said what you could not sell at $150 ( stock selling at $150)
> you could sell if you put it up to  $180 first and then sell as much as you want all the way back down to a $150
> 
> motorway




Dont disagree.
Anything that we use AS an indicator could be classified as one.

But my comment was to common indicators and Id hardly call E/W and P&F (As a second example,not that I use it) common.


----------



## motorway

tech/a said:


> Dont disagree.
> Anything that we use AS an indicator could be classified as one.
> 
> But my comment was to common indicators and Id hardly call E/W and P&F (As a second example,not that I use it) common.




Point taken 

much good in EW too

eg Impulsive and corrective

And it is how you use them too
eg P&F is a method of charting *first*
 you can do EW on P&F charts

There was one site that did EW analysis on P&F FX charts

motorway


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> Hi Magdoran,
> 
> Yes, keeping well, thanks.  Trust you are well on your way to recovery.
> 
> Thanks for the in depth reply - and I do agree with your views.  I haven't seen or spoken with David for quite a while now, nor have I heard him actually speak on the subject of Gann, so your assessment may very well be right.  And I did explain in a later post (I think to Bunyip), that McLaren's DVDs would actually be the first choice for more education on the subject of time.  I have thoroughly enjoyed McLaren's ebook and really like the fact there is so little waffle and he gets straight to the nuts and bolts.
> 
> Probably, what prompted my post about looking further into David's course is that I have always wanted to understand how to use the square of nine.  Recently, someone was asking about historical, intraday SPI data and I remembered Adest used to have it.  I then noticed the subject list for David's Gann course which included so many of the areas I missed out on.  A few years ago, we paid $500 for me to go to a half day seminar and the main reason was that the Square of Nine was advertised as one of the subjects for the day - plus all the hype on how good it is.  However, all of about 10 mins was spent on it right at the end of the session - with the statement that it would be taught more fully at the next (expensive) module.
> 
> I also agree with your analogy of only being given a few pieces of a puzzle with minimal help to try and put those otherwise obscure pieces together.  And thanks for sharing how you put some of those loose ends together.
> 
> Cheers



Hi Margaret,

I did see your comment about ADEST.  I think David did a good job though of finding a range of speakers and offering a diversity of viewpoints for those that were interested.

On the square of nine, McLaren spent over a decade trying to make it work, and in the end discarded it.  I agree with this assessment.  It is an amusing toy, but I think there are much better approaches that require significantly less effort and yield significantly better results - but that's just my opinion.

I know Cameron Mitchell was hawking a kind of Gann angles moving average square of nine approach a friend of mine looked at.  Personally I wasn't impressed.  I think he misses the bulk of what McLaren is on about, and focuses on things I tend to think are missing the bulk of the advanced thinking in the geometric/time cycles schools.  

Anything with a moving average involved usually signals to me that the person using it just doesn't get the approaches I've focused on, with the exception of wavepicker who uses this kind of thing in a unique fusion with a kind of wave and cycle theory which he explains in part in his posts.

So, if you want to play with the square of nine, be aware that many have tried this with limited success.  However, you may have better success with it than I or McLaren.  

However, I think you would find McLaren's thinking on the "Time Factor" and time cycles very interesting.  It may fill in some of the blank spots you are missing.  Also, time angles once you grasp them can be very powerful.  I suspect most of the people commenting on this thread have no idea of what these are, let alone how to use them.  Unfortunately this usually is something that requires mastering several prerequisites first in order to perceive these.

Kind Regards

Mag


----------



## Magdoran

motorway said:


> The difference between following something dynamically
> or statically....
> 
> Through time frames dynamically or in a time frame statically..
> 
> There is only one high on the chart and one low
> in relation to other highs and lows
> There is not a daily weekly or monthly high or low
> 
> If your string the course of sales out keeping the structure of the spacing (dynamic time )  There is only a series of events  happening in different  moments..
> 
> You can zoom in or out but only by keeping the dynamic time structure
> The same spacing proportions.. Can you keep proportion.
> 
> The course of sales is not spaced out in clock time periods
> 
> The analogy with driving the car is correct in a sense
> 
> They move the same in that
> both are dynamic , they change speed
> sometimes they stop , sometimes they travel fast
> 
> you can only predict if you know what the dynamic time will be
> in the future...
> 
> You can only predict where the car will be if you know how fast it will be travelling , tomorrow ..
> 
> But you only know how fast it is travelling now and how fast it has been travelling...
> 
> Unlike the clock you can not predict in the same way with dynamic time
> 
> I know what time will be on the clock a 100 years from now
> But that is the beguiling nature of static time..
> 
> 
> 
> motorway



Hi Motorway,

I must admit, I am never sure quite how to interpret your posts.  You do seem to be a thinker and have made some really interesting comments from a unique perspective (the "motor-way"  hehe).  But on the whole I just don't grasp the ideas underpinning your thinking which you don't seem to venture openly.

I still would like you to elucidate what you mean/define as "static" as opposed to "dynamic".  Some examples may help.  Currently I suspect you are not perceiving what I am.  I'm certainly confused about what you're seeing.  I'm curious to find out a little more about your perspective.  

I do think that we are dealing with completely different paradigms.  I honestly don't get yours currently.  I would like to, and I respect that it may be difficult for you to express this in a way that is easy to grasp. Perhaps if you pointed me to the foundations of your thinking and gave some directions to make it easier to join the dot's, that would be constructive.

On the topic of the car and acceleration, I posted some discussions on Einstein's theory of relativity and on Heisenberg's uncertainly principle.  I think these have a bearing on how markets trend (not a proof, but an interesting perspective to consider).  For instance consider the idea of mesons and how this relates to uncertainty - one point known, another apparently "random".  I think this kind of micro tipping field is in part a way the market trades chaotically.

Further, an analogy I would use would be the actual path the moon takes considering it is rotating while orbiting the earth, while the earth orbits the sun.  This is like the different time frames, this is not to separate these as unrelated perspectives, but to put a trend in perspective. In EW theory smaller degree wave patterns build into larger degree wave patterns.  Corrective being ABC (3 wave) patterns, impulse being 5 wave patterns (although wavepicker goes into the subtleties of this - and things like ending diagonals etc).

Hence this is a dynamic model in the true sense of the word, which is what confuses me about your specific usage of the term to mean something completely different.  I think we are using terms to mean different things.  I have some very specific observations in mind as do you.  The problem is that you need to define precisely what you mean to make sense to me.

I am guessing at the point you are trying to make.  I have tried to illustrate what I'm seeing in past posts.  Can you please point me to some posts of yours where you describe what you are seeing?  Have you posted any non-hindsight trades or projections?  Until I see your work in action I am unclear as to what exactly it is that you are trying to get at.

Also, if you are basing your perspective (dynamic vs static) on Frank's work, then there is no need to respond, I perceive his approach as not something I would like to pursue - It's just not "my cup of tea".  His perspective of "time" is very different to mine, almost antithetical.

Anyway, I'd love to see a post with some detail and rigor in it if you wouldn't mind please.

Kind Regards

Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

motorway said:


> I think you do understand
> When you zoom out you are still only looking at the present moment
> 
> You are not  looking into the future
> 
> yes we can zoom out and look back in time and see the past price behaviour
> and see what lies from that point up ahead till the prsent moment
> 
> yes we can see the past and the present
> 
> But we can not see tomorrow
> 
> You are looking back to the car from the congestion that exists in the present.
> here is where your use of the anaolgy fails  , All these cars exist in the one dynamic moment in the present,,
> 
> There are no coarse of sales that exist now that are up ahead that we can see in the present moment..
> 
> What you are saying is that ( the car congestion )
> 
> You look at what is on the chart now and take postions several weeks back in the past
> 
> 
> motorway



motorway,

How does what you are doing differ exactly?  Are you saying you can see the immutable future?  Are you arguing a predetermination case? If so I ardently disagree.  I think the future is not yet written (which is pretty much antithetical in many Gann circles, and means I have a very radical view on the whole philosophical debates over this, but I still haven't solved all the contradictions yet, and suspect I never will).

I see each moment as unique, and every input potentially a game changing action.  This is especially true when there are tipping points based on flaws in the infrastructure which effects the "superstructure"  (E.g. Soros' discussion of dynamic disequilibrium and reflexivity regarding the breakdown of the Soviet Union - see "The Alchemy of Finance" for a full commentary on this, and on his references to the works of Karl Popper).

I see cycles, I see order, and I see chaotic behaviour in the market.  There are many variables playing out at any given time, and the minor tipping points can lead to major ones.  Soros believes that if you are looking in the right way that you can perceive the flaws in people's thinking on mass, and in part from observing structures and their weaknesses (look at his shorting of the UK currency against the German Mark seeing the duality of the German bank's role and exploiting this).

I'm suggesting that using a combination of perspectives in concert allows you to see patterns which give a significant edge to perceiving how the market may unfold in the future.  The Key concept is deliberately looking for times where a "black Swan" event (ala Taleb) is likely enough to constitute a consistent edge, knowing how to use the right instruments in the right markets with the ability to engage ones imagination and channel it into the future to perceive when and how these black swan events may unfold, and taking the action to take advantage of this.  

This is hardly a static approach or perspective, and respectfully time is NOT static in this case, or the analysis either for that matter.  It is precisely DYNAMIC in the dictionary definition of the word.  Hence, I am confused by your comments.  I don't think your perspective embraces mine at all from what I can see.  I think we are talking from completely alien paradigms.  Please elucidate if you think this is incorrect.

Does that make sense?

Mag


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Snake.
> Your presuming I'm using tradeguider in a conventional manner.
> 
> I will add that I have used "Canned" indicators in systems testing but very rarely. T/T has one an EMA.
> 
> But for discretionary trading not a one.



Tech,
Not at all I was just commenting that not only Metastock but TG has the conventional indicators. I know you don't use them through your comments.


----------



## motorway

Magdoran said:


> motorway,
> 
> I think the future is not yet written (which is pretty much antithetical in many Gann circles, and means I have a very radical view on the whole philosophical debates over this, but I still haven't solved all the contradictions yet, and suspect I never will).
> 
> I see each moment as unique, and every input potentially a game changing action.
> 
> I'm suggesting that using a combination of perspectives in concert allows you to see patterns which give a significant edge to perceiving how the market may unfold in the future.  The Key concept is deliberately looking for times where a "black Swan" event (ala Taleb) is likely enough to constitute a consistent edge, knowing how to use the right instruments in the right markets with the ability to engage ones imagination and channel it into the future to perceive when and how these black swan events may unfold, and taking the action to take advantage of this.
> 
> This is hardly a static approach or perspective, and respectfully time is NOT static in this case, or the analysis either for that matter.  It is precisely DYNAMIC in the dictionary definition of the word.  Hence, I am confused by your comments.  I don't think your perspective embraces mine at all from what I can see.  I think we are talking from completely alien paradigms.  Please elucidate if you think this is incorrect.
> 
> Does that make sense?
> 
> Mag




Yes , I understand you ..... It is not Gann as I have seen it usually applied

No doubt Gann himself discarded much along the way and would have kept doing so.... 

Taleb Soros Popper...... Yes I see

I appreciate Taleb esp

he talks about the three body problem
and how much we can not predict
But that does not mean that  configurations occur
where what I call high probability forced moves unfold..

eg If all the balls are far  apart or close together

If a market is extended and churning , dull or active etc

On P&F I have read that GANN did not use them much
But Then I have read that after he died they found P&F charts that large that you could cover walls with them

as regards angles on P&F

when you change the box size you are changing the scale of both axis
The reversal is a filter of time as much as price

Because volatility scales with time  

When you change the reversal, You are altering the trend constant ( degrees )
of the 45 degree line ( You still draw it at 45 on the particular chart ) 

Seeing the reversal is a time filter ... The chart has a dynamic time scale

The first TA method that made sense to me was P&F 

I used to draw full coarse of scale charts by hand

only one box reversal... I knew them as fluid flow charts  ( not as three box reversal chart craft trading method )

And this is  key  point

It is a charting method that you can apply any type of trading system to.

So Techs point and the difference


I can do EW on a Point and figure chart
But I can not uses EW on a bar chart to do P&F

EW is an indicator
P&F is a charting method



motorway


----------



## tech/a

> So Techs point and the difference
> 
> 
> I can do EW on a Point and figure chart
> But I can not uses EW on a bar chart to do P&F
> 
> EW is an indicator
> P&F is a charting method




Hmm

I can do E/W on both a Bar chart and a P&F chart.
Yes See your point.Just as Candlesticks are a charting method as is Equivolume renko Market profile---blah.

Still E/W isnt to me a conventional indicator which was my point. I dont trade without indicators--.


----------



## gazelle

CBAKM7   PUT  . looking for a high today otherwise no trade .


----------



## sails

gazelle said:


> CBAKM7   PUT  . looking for a high today otherwise no trade .




Gazelle, how did it go - did you get your puts?  CBA made a high yesterday on the 23rd (target date) at 3699 and at 3697 today.  Or is it something else you were looking for?

I have read your posts with interest - thanks for sharing.  I am interested in how you have arrived at your Gann analysis and how that is actually traded - thanks.


----------



## sails

Magdoran said:


> ...So, if you want to play with the square of nine, be aware that many have tried this with limited success.  However, you may have better success with it than I or McLaren.
> 
> However, I think you would find McLaren's thinking on the "Time Factor" and time cycles very interesting.  It may fill in some of the blank spots you are missing.  Also, time angles once you grasp them can be very powerful.  I suspect most of the people commenting on this thread have no idea of what these are, let alone how to use them.  Unfortunately this usually is something that requires mastering several prerequisites first in order to perceive these.




LOL, I will take your word on the square of nine, Magdoran.  If McLaren only found it an amusing toy after a decade, it's obviously not what it is hyped up to be.  I'm convinced now it's not worth chasing after anymore - thanks 

And McLaren's DVD on time is one I an planning to purchase.  At the moment, I am playing around with SPI futures as options trading in Oz very discouraging.  The strategies I would like to do are just way too heavy on fees and slippage.  Haven't given up on it completely, just being very selective.  Bought Frank D's ebook this week, so my head is swimming with all sorts of different levels!  Interesting concepts though and especially interesting to see how he adapts to changing market conditions that don't always fit into his initial forecast.

Magdoran, what sort of prerequisites do you feel are required to master the time angles?


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> LOL, I will take your word on the square of nine, Magdoran.  If McLaren only found it an amusing toy after a decade, it's obviously not what it is hyped up to be.  I'm convinced now it's not worth chasing after anymore - thanks
> 
> And McLaren's DVD on time is one I an planning to purchase.  At the moment, I am playing around with SPI futures as options trading in Oz very discouraging.  The strategies I would like to do are just way too heavy on fees and slippage.  Haven't given up on it completely, just being very selective.  Bought Frank D's ebook this week, so my head is swimming with all sorts of different levels!  Interesting concepts though and especially interesting to see how he adapts to changing market conditions that don't always fit into his initial forecast.
> 
> Magdoran, what sort of prerequisites do you feel are required to master the time angles?



Hello Margaret,

If you're aiming to understand the time factor material, I would strongly recommend you get and master the foundations first.  Grasping this is critical and will save a significant amount of time and frustration.  If you don't understand patterns of trend, the time cycles will not make sense.  You just wont see it.

The time cycles material is great, but is so dependent on recognizing patterns that without this it probably will be more trouble than it's worth.  The foundations takes a while to fully digest since McLaren makes so many really inspirational observations while he's presenting.  Some of these I spent weeks on going through charts looking at what he was saying.  Some of these weren't obvious at first either, and then the penny dropped.  Then, WOW!  A lot of things made sense, but this is usually gradual as you develop your thinking.

I'd suggest allowing yourself a good 6 months to absorb the material, and find yourself a good range of market data ranging back as far as you can.  he does supply some examples, but looking at the real thing and going through past events can be eye opening.  Especially if you have a capacity to wind the charts back and leave the right side blank as you scroll through each daily bar.  Very revealing.

Prerequisites... Hmmm, well giving up the bad habit of using moving averages and oscillators for a start for most people (and perhaps forgetting 90% of the SITM stuff too - especially the swing chart stuff).  (hehe - I think I just heard a big "hrumph noise go up in ASF haha!).  

I'd say your dedication and perseverance will help a lot.  This stuff is hard, but really rewarding if you can grasp it and develop.  I think imagination and the capacity to visualise is important.  If you could get the SITM stuff to work a bit, this is a good sign.  Perhaps with the "mother load" (core information) you need available, you'll be able to put it all together.  Your detailed knowledge of options / derivatives will be an advantage too.  

Happy to help how I can, but I'd suggest the foundations DVD will work really well if you liked the e-book, then the time factor once you've absorbed the foundations, then some idea sharing and group collaboration may help too.  You'll probably progress really quickly since you've been at this for a while, and probably have already developed a really good eye for charts.  If nothing else the materials should reinforce the "good stuff" you've already acquired.

McLaren shows how the time angles work in the Time Factor DVD, but to really see these and use them yourself sort of pops into your head after mastering all the different aspects I've outlined.  If you get most of this, I can point you in the right direction when you're ready.

Hope that helps!

Mag


----------



## sails

Magdoran said:


> Hello Margaret,
> 
> If you're aiming to understand the time factor material, I would strongly recommend you get and master the foundations first.  Grasping this is critical and will save a significant amount of time and frustration.  If you don't understand patterns of trend, the time cycles will not make sense.  You just wont see it.
> 
> The time cycles material is great, but is so dependent on recognizing patterns that without this it probably will be more trouble than it's worth.  The foundations takes a while to fully digest since McLaren makes so many really inspirational observations while he's presenting.  Some of these I spent weeks on going through charts looking at what he was saying.  Some of these weren't obvious at first either, and then the penny dropped.  Then, WOW!  A lot of things made sense, but this is usually gradual as you develop your thinking.
> 
> I'd suggest allowing yourself a good 6 months to absorb the material, and find yourself a good range of market data ranging back as far as you can.  he does supply some examples, but looking at the real thing and going through past events can be eye opening.  Especially if you have a capacity to wind the charts back and leave the right side blank as you scroll through each daily bar.  Very revealing.
> 
> Prerequisites... Hmmm, well giving up the bad habit of using moving averages and oscillators for a start for most people (and perhaps forgetting 90% of the SITM stuff too - especially the swing chart stuff).  (hehe - I think I just heard a big "hrumph noise go up in ASF haha!).




I pretty much gave up on moving averages a long time ago - sometimes use MACD for divergences though.  But, I do like my swing charts, especially the bigger charts often show some interesting range equalities - so it would take some convincing to let them go.  Mind you, mine are just sketched out on plain paper with pencil, so nothing elaborate.



> I'd say your dedication and perseverance will help a lot.  This stuff is hard, but really rewarding if you can grasp it and develop.  I think imagination and the capacity to visualise is important.  If you could get the SITM stuff to work a bit, this is a good sign.  Perhaps with the "mother load" (core information) you need available, you'll be able to put it all together.  Your detailed knowledge of options / derivatives will be an advantage too.
> 
> Happy to help how I can, but I'd suggest the foundations DVD will work really well if you liked the e-book, then the time factor once you've absorbed the foundations, then some idea sharing and group collaboration may help too.  You'll probably progress really quickly since you've been at this for a while, and probably have already developed a really good eye for charts.  If nothing else the materials should reinforce the "good stuff" you've already acquired.
> 
> McLaren shows how the time angles work in the Time Factor DVD, but to really see these and use them yourself sort of pops into your head after mastering all the different aspects I've outlined.  If you get most of this, I can point you in the right direction when you're ready.




While I really appreciate the offer of help, I don't feel the time is ready just yet - there is still a heavy work load on the home front at times. Although it has improved a little, the difficulties seem to fluctuate in intensity.  It is one of the reasons I am interested in futures trading as it is something where I can take a day off and not worry about open positions needing possible attention.

Thanks again and will let you know when I feel I can give something like this the time and focus it deserves.  I see McLaren is now charging around $1000 for the two DVDs - but then that's cheaper than Tech's $6000 

Cheers


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> I pretty much gave up on moving averages a long time ago - sometimes use MACD for divergences though.  But, I do like my swing charts, especially the bigger charts often show some interesting range equalities - so it would take some convincing to let them go.  Mind you, mine are just sketched out on plain paper with pencil, so nothing elaborate.
> 
> 
> 
> While I really appreciate the offer of help, I don't feel the time is ready just yet - there is still a heavy work load on the home front at times. Although it has improved a little, the difficulties seem to fluctuate in intensity.  It is one of the reasons I am interested in futures trading as it is something where I can take a day off and not worry about open positions needing possible attention.
> 
> Thanks again and will let you know when I feel I can give something like this the time and focus it deserves.  I see McLaren is now charging around $1000 for the two DVDs - but then that's cheaper than Tech's $6000
> 
> Cheers



Hello Margaret,

Whenever you want to bounce some ideas around, the door is always open.  I bet you could teach me a thing or two too - especially some of your derivative work.

Is tech charging?  $6,000 you say?  Well, well, well.  That puts a different perspective on things doesn't it?  I'll hold my tongue until I can verify this.  We are talking about Tech/A right?

Mag


----------



## Timmy

Magdoran said:


> Is tech charging?  $6,000 you say?




Hey Mag - see post #208.


----------



## Magdoran

Timmy said:


> Hey Mag - see post #208.



Hahahah!  That's too funny.   Boy I'm slow tonight...:


----------



## sails

Magdoran said:


> Hello Margaret,
> 
> Whenever you want to bounce some ideas around, the door is always open.  I bet you could teach me a thing or two too - especially some of your derivative work.




I have put an enormous amount of work into options and their various strategies.  It's a shame one has to be so restricted in the Oz market - but that's the way it is.  Have to move on for now and improve directional skills.  My first goal is to get my head around some of Frank's strategies.  I am finding some of his levels actually fit in nicely with other TA (including swing charts, LOL) that I have learned.  Will see how it goes.  Following that, it will be McLaren and will certainly be grateful to bounce ideas.   

I think you already have a better knowledge than most when it comes to options, however, if there is anything I can pass on, only too happy to do so.  



> Is tech charging?  $6,000 you say?  Well, well, well.  That puts a different perspective on things doesn't it?  I'll hold my tongue until I can verify this.  We are talking about Tech/A right?




Thanks Timmy - saved me going back to find the post.  Mag, coming from someone as generous as Tech, it was absolutely taken in humour and my post was definitely tongue in cheek


----------



## sails

tech/a said:


> Here you go Sails.
> 
> All about Ganns square of nine.
> http://www.tradingfives.com/store/so9book.html
> 
> 
> Even better than using a pencil and ruler here is a calculator.
> 
> My $6,000 bill is in the mail.
> 
> 
> http://www.xmlworks.com/gann/javascript/




Above is post #208, and for the record, Tech was definitely NOT selling anything and no bill in the mail. 

The links Tech posted looks interesting, however, the usefulness of the sq of 9 looks doubtful, so I will put it on the back burner - at least for now.


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> I have put an enormous amount of work into options and their various strategies.  It's a shame one has to be so restricted in the Oz market - but that's the way it is.  Have to move on for now and improve directional skills.  My first goal is to get my head around some of Frank's strategies.  I am finding some of his levels actually fit in nicely with other TA (including swing charts, LOL) that I have learned.  Will see how it goes.  Following that, it will be McLaren and will certainly be grateful to bounce ideas.
> 
> I think you already have a better knowledge than most when it comes to options, however, if there is anything I can pass on, only too happy to do so.
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks Timmy - saved me going back to find the post.  Mag, coming from someone as generous as Tech, it was absolutely taken in humour and my post was definitely tongue in cheek



Hello Margaret,

Yes you have put a lot of work into derivatives.  Actually I think in some areas you'd be way ahead of me.  I'm very reliant on my software to "paint" the risk and reward picture, with a preference for Binomial over Black and Scholes.

But my mathematical ability without this crutch is poor.  I cannot crunch that type of number in my head, although I do have a good feel for what the graph should look like, and what the numbers should be, but this is intuitive.  A guy I knew at university was able to do calculus in his head.  Amazing guy, talked about reverse demand curves, and all sorts of things even the lecturer was out of his depth.  I can't do that, so I rely on the software to do it for me.

I think my strength is in the visualisation of the probability and integrating this with the "facts and figures" risk to reward on the chart, knowing where the "sweet spots" are.  I think you clearly know the mathematical backdrop better than I do innately.  You've shown this many times.  

I sometimes get help building these from time to time when I reach my limits. I do the due diligence because I have to, not because I'm naturally good at it.  I'm not.  Believe me, I struggle sometimes.  Logic is my strength.  Crunching numbers isn't.  I see the pattern, but I can't formularise it without aid (such as software).

Re McLaren's interpretation of Gann, I think you'd actually master this on your own once you have access to the pieces you need.  You certainly have the capability.  All I'd be doing would be to give you a few shortcuts and and accelerating the process to incorporate some of the pieces you are missing (a bit like Heisenberg made a minor but ultimately deal breaking error working on nuclear physics during WWII which meant the Nazis didn't develop nuclear capability).

Re Franks work.  I've looked at this, and frankly (forgive the pun) I don't "buy" it.  I think this whole use of the term "dynamic time" is a misnomer.  Yes, it's a "dynamic system" since you adjust your appraisal as the market trends, but any system worth it's salt does this.  It is a reactive approach, not a forecasting approach.  I really don't think he gets "time" at all.  His work indicates to me he has totally missed the points wavepicker and I made on this subject.

At several points in the past Frank would be taking the opposite trade when I'd have been winding out positions, or even reversing them. Key examples can be seen reading the comments between Frank and wavepicker, and especially the example of the Feb 24 2007 counter trend.  Frank was still long when this sharp pull back occurred.  If he really understood counter trends and "time", why doesn't his system deliver responses to address what to me are obvious situations where the trend is at risk?  My conclusion is that he just doesn't understand time cycles the way we do.  I think there is sufficient evidence from my perspective to support that conclusion for the present time.

That's not to say that there isn't value in his approach - there is if this is your preferred style.  He has obviously spent a significant amount of time perfecting what he's doing.  What I object to is his "mantra" that his system uses "dynamic time" and my approach is using "static time".  This is just nonsense to me and marketing semantics, and in my view misleading.  

If he understood time and the pattern of trend he'd be able to perceive when the trend is clearly at risk (from the "McLaren" perspective), which from the evidence he doesn't.  So to label something he clearly doesn't understand with a pejorative term begs the question in my view.

I'd be fine with him calling his system "dynamic adjustment to price action", because that is what he's doing.  It is based on price highs and lows, NOT time (at least in the sense I am talking about).  In McLaren's terms he's using the "division of the range" in PRICE as a basis for his levels. Price is usually the third thing I look at in my approach, not the first. 

Motorway talked of "the" high, or "the" low, which is in my view a trap if you try to impose this on time cycles in my style.  Time cycles are often NOT based on key lows/highs in a significant number of cases.  Of course they are important, but they are only a piece of the puzzle in my view.  They become in my view a trap if you fixate too much on them.  But this is MY view for me and my "style"  I fully recognize that Frank and motorway have their own styles which works for them, and I salute that.

Regards

Mag


----------



## tech/a

More rhetoric and posturing.
*Still no trading examples*.

For a method which is touted as the "Ducks Guts"
Seems impossible to trade.

Anyone *AT ALL *willing to demonstrate say 6 or so trades clearly showing Entry and then perhaps a description of trade management right through to Exit or stop out. (Long or Short,Derivative,Equity or Commodity)

I'm happy even if the mega secret analysis isnt discussed simply a buy here  do this then exit here from an exponent would demonstrate its practical value.

Always good to see a method in application.

Thanks in advance.(Again)


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> More rhetoric and posturing.
> *Still no trading examples*.




Whats that saying Tech? 
Something about the cost of talk?

Seems a very familiar tact, lots of talk not a lot of walk. Complexity is camouflage. Just what is being hidden? the golden goose or a landmine :grenade:


----------



## motorway

There is always a lot of talk about fractals and chaos and even  Heisenberg 

But if it does not tie to practical application  ?

So other names mentioned in this thread

Mandelbrot , Taleb... Ok

practical application is most apparent in another Richard Olsen  ( FX  Olsen )

Dynamic Time = Emotional Time



> All traditional macroeconomic models, as well as most new technical financial analysis models, work with ordinary physical time. They analyse the price movements of a currency in a purely quantitative way, for example by recording a set number of data points on a given currency every day at the same intervals of time and comparing them.




Frank's use of range Bars and Motorway's use of P&F are *NOT* part of this most  ( Techs point is  wrong again some charts only look different-- Some are )



> Olsen’s method is quite different: he is not interested in how the price of a currency moves every half-hour, hour or day, but in when that price moves at all and in who causes the movement. Olsen directs his attention to the real price movements, to the interaction of the players all working in their own version of time - and that individual version of time varies not merely from time zone to time zone, but from person to person.




With Volume Analysis It is the Volume that is the point of interest not the time periods --- Volume Analysis can be Dynamic Time too



> Broadly speaking, one can say that if the market does not show any movement, Olsen regards time as standing still, whereas if there is a great deal of movement, he regards it as moving fast. In emotional time, then, a second does not always last the same length of time, as it does in physical time. It is this concept of emotional time which allows a much more precise observation of market movements, and which above all allows exaggerated movements to be identified and quantified much better.




Any real method that is using dynamic time..
will define time in this way

Time that stops starts expands contracts

Olsen has been closely associated to Mandelbrot
and Taleb to Mandelbrot also



> In the case of our forecasting models we don’t even consider physical time. And there lies the key to the problem. It’s important to measure time according to different scales: in seconds, in minutes, in hours, days or months. And in intrinsic time a minute sometimes has 60 seconds, sometimes only 10, and sometimes 1,000 seconds. And if a minute has, for example, 1,000 seconds, it means on the one hand that we experience that minute very intensively and vividly – but on the other hand, time subjectively seems to flow slower in that minute.




My interest In The "New Science"  is that it is old tape reading and P&F application 

Wyckoff for example would agree with all of Olsen's statement above ,imo.

As to Why ... Such dynamic time converges  to the structure at tick level where there is only one high and low

If we zoom out from the tape with static time

we lose reality



> The fractal aspect emerges from the fact that the price of an investment is not a point which moves in a linear way on a time axis. For if you examined this point through a magnifying glass you would not see one point, but many, with the price trend oscillating between them. These price fluctuations seem all the more chaotic, the shorter the interval of time is between the points.
> 
> Seen in this way, it would be more appropriate to say in the above-mentioned example that the Dow Jones Index is oscillating between 9000 and 10,000 points, instead of giving the exact figure of 9475 points. But to conclude from this that it would help simply to employ additional financial analysts to analyse the price trends even more and even more accurately would be a mistake. For logical, rational thought alone does not move us on any further. On the contrary, what we need is a new approach.




The new approach is also a very old approach

But not Gann ( What defines Gann-- using a clock to predict the time )

motorway


----------



## motorway

From Frank's free material



> The reason we use a ‘Range bar’ is because we want to be able to ride any trend as long
> as possible and remove any fear that might effect a trader, and traders do have the ability
> to sabotage any trade by thinking of negative outcomes even though there might not be
> any around.
> 
> It also helps a trader remove
> all lagging price indicators that continually give a ‘false’ impression of the market, by
> suggesting the market is ‘overbought’ or ‘oversold’, as many lagging indicators do. I’m
> not a fan of using any indicators whatsoever because they are inherently late, and I don’t
> believe they give me any edge at all.
> 
> Essentially this reverts to the early days of Technical
> Analysis, and the use of Point and Figure Charts,
> 
> 
> * As a trader who  uses Range bars, I do recommend others find some way of
> incorporating Range bars as part of their trading systems to clarify the movement
> in price over time and also develop money management rules to maximize the
> trends that occur in the market.*




Ok remember these quotes
from the P&F thread

compare

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=383646&postcount=64

&
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=386424&postcount=65

Everything that works
Will work better on a chart with a dynamic time scale..

*Everything*

All the research I have seen supports this..

I can supply more such research..

It Is about what causes lag=The wrong use of time

motorway


----------



## Magdoran

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats that saying Tech?
> Something about the cost of talk?
> 
> Seems a very familiar tact, lots of talk not a lot of walk. Complexity is camouflage. Just what is being hidden? the golden goose or a landmine :grenade:



Trembling Hand,

What of any value have you really contributed I'd like to ask?  

Have you actually bothered to look at any of my examples?  I posted quite a few and gave references to these in detail time after time for nearly a decade now - or is it too difficult for you to use the search function - do I have to spoon feed you as well?

How exactly is this avoiding giving practical examples?  Wavepicker and I put together a whole raft of valuable information.  We posted in advance trades time after time demonstrating and commenting on the analysis including posting charts and making in advance calls.  

We sited reference materials, what to look at, and where to get it.  What more do you want - do you need a babysitter?  Why is this somehow my obligation to you TH?  It's all there if you'd care to take the time to read it and actually flex that muscle between your ears.  I even posted references to these on this thread.  How hard is it to click on a link?

Did you look at the posts on derivatives too?  I've done this for years as well, or haven't you taken the time to study this either?  Respectfully, if we add your valuable contributions to mine, and I bet you won't find the knowledge quotient increases.

It's easy to be lazy and make hollow accusations with snide remarks.  What you lack my friend is substance. It must be quite something to be tech's parrot.


----------



## sails

sails said:


> Gazelle, how did it go - did you get your puts?  CBA made a high yesterday on the 23rd (target date) at 3699 and at 3697 today.  Or is it something else you were looking for?
> 
> I have read your posts with interest - thanks for sharing.  I am interested in how you have arrived at your Gann analysis and how that is actually traded - thanks.




Maybe the guys are talking about Gazelle who seems to have disappeared.  Was hoping he would follow up on his CBA trade as per my post above...

Also, I think Gann analysis is a very broad term these days as there seem to be so many variations that lay claim to Gann or at least have some Gann in their systems.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Magdoran said:


> Trembling Hand,
> 
> What of any value have you really contributed I'd like to ask?
> 
> Have you actually bothered to look at any of my examples?  I posted quite a few and gave references to these in detail time after time for nearly a decade now - or is it too difficult for you to use the search function - do I have to spoon feed you as well?
> 
> How exactly is this avoiding giving practical examples?  Wavepicker and I put together a whole raft of valuable information.  We posted in advance trades time after time demonstrating and commenting on the analysis including posting charts and making in advance calls.
> 
> We sited reference materials, what to look at, and where to get it.  What more do you want - do you need a babysitter?  Why is this somehow my obligation to you TH?  It's all there if you'd care to take the time to read it and actually flex that muscle between your ears.  I even posted references to these on this thread.  How hard is it to click on a link?
> 
> Did you look at the posts on derivatives too?  I've done this for years as well, or haven't you taken the time to study this either?  Respectfully, if we add your valuable contributions to mine, and I bet you won't find the knowledge quotient increases.
> 
> It's easy to be lazy and make hollow accusations with snide remarks.  What you lack my friend is substance. It must be quite something to be tech's parrot.




Magdoran you will not bully me out of this thread like you do to others that question you. My initial post in here that sparked this thread back to life was about the theorist calming the greatness of Gann.

My challenge to them at the time was to show practical evidence of the claimed greatness of Gann. Not one including you have shown it. I don't want you to point out your great calls. Any self proclaimed internet Guru can do that. As a real trader I can point out a few good ones of my own. But I know they don't make the "Trembling hand practical theory" valid. What does is showing a methods application IN the market making money. I 've done that with approx 2000s real trades backed up with statements.

My backing up of Tech was in response to you paying out on his tech trader. I think thats a ridiculus reply. Here is a system that was REALLY traded LIVE, that MADE lots of money and put out there for ALL to scrutinse. And you tried to dumb on it. Whats the point you are trying to make 

Funny you mention Wavepicker because I find your reply the same as wavepickers reply when I first came on here. He dumped on a method I put up for some reason and tried to push it off. Then I find out later that he was confessing to trading greatness when his claimed yearly profit was what I make in a couple of weeks . THEN I find his been kicked off here because he been posting under other handles praising his own post  .

Internet gurus are a dime a dozen in this place. Their words are spread out like a sickness on this boards, like the one I replied to. I do not confess to knowing every thing about trading but I do know that I haven't seen an ACTUAL profitable Gann trader SHOW their profitable trading.

Thus my comment,


> Seems a very familiar tact, lots of talk not a lot of walk. Complexity is camouflage.


----------



## explod

> Internet gurus are a dime a dozen in this place. Their words are spread out like a sickness on this boards, like the one I replied to. I do not confess to knowing every thing about trading but I do know that I haven't seen an ACTUAL profitable Gann trader SHOW their profitable trading




And you probably wont'  .   My interest in Gann was purely for his way of looking at things in his own time.   In my view how we got here is of benefit overall.   In saying that of course there are many hundreds of others who  have made enormous contributions.

Today I like the ways of Darryl Morely and Nick Radge, not connected to either but their matter of fact straight up the line approach works for basic trading.

Sorry still have not got that book out T/H, but will comment a bit more when I do.  And I am not going soft either, Gann made some very good contributions IMHO


----------



## sails

Magdoran said:


> Hello Margaret,
> 
> Yes you have put a lot of work into derivatives.  Actually I think in some areas you'd be way ahead of me.  I'm very reliant on my software to "paint" the risk and reward picture, with a preference for Binomial over Black and Scholes.
> 
> But my mathematical ability without this crutch is poor.  I cannot crunch that type of number in my head, although I do have a good feel for what the graph should look like, and what the numbers should be, but this is intuitive.  A guy I knew at university was able to do calculus in his head.  Amazing guy, talked about reverse demand curves, and all sorts of things even the lecturer was out of his depth.  I can't do that, so I rely on the software to do it for me.
> 
> I think my strength is in the visualisation of the probability and integrating this with the "facts and figures" risk to reward on the chart, knowing where the "sweet spots" are.  I think you clearly know the mathematical backdrop better than I do innately.  You've shown this many times.
> 
> I sometimes get help building these from time to time when I reach my limits. I do the due diligence because I have to, not because I'm naturally good at it.  I'm not.  Believe me, I struggle sometimes.  Logic is my strength.  Crunching numbers isn't.  I see the pattern, but I can't formularise it without aid (such as software).




I also heavily rely on software.    I am absolutely no mathematician, but I think after studying hundreds, if not thousands of risk graphs over the years, I can pretty much mentally visualize a lot of varying option strategies now.  



> Re McLaren's interpretation of Gann, I think you'd actually master this on your own once you have access to the pieces you need.  You certainly have the capability.  All I'd be doing would be to give you a few shortcuts and and accelerating the process to incorporate some of the pieces you are missing (a bit like Heisenberg made a minor but ultimately deal breaking error working on nuclear physics during WWII which meant the Nazis didn't develop nuclear capability).




Looking forward to putting a few more missing pieces of the jigsaw together as I feel there are lots of missing bits at the moment.  However, I believe I need to be able to devote the necessary time to understand McLaren’s work properly.  Would certainly appreciate any shortcuts when I get there!



> Re Franks work.  I've looked at this, and frankly (forgive the pun) I don't "buy" it.  I think this whole use of the term "dynamic time" is a misnomer.  Yes, it's a "dynamic system" since you adjust your appraisal as the market trends, but any system worth it's salt does this.  It is a reactive approach, not a forecasting approach.  I really don't think he gets "time" at all.  His work indicates to me he has totally missed the points wavepicker and I made on this subject.
> 
> At several points in the past Frank would be taking the opposite trade when I'd have been winding out positions, or even reversing them. Key examples can be seen reading the comments between Frank and wavepicker, and especially the example of the Feb 24 2007 counter trend.  Frank was still long when this sharp pull back occurred.  If he really understood counter trends and "time", why doesn't his system deliver responses to address what to me are obvious situations where the trend is at risk?  My conclusion is that he just doesn't understand time cycles the way we do.  I think there is sufficient evidence from my perspective to support that conclusion for the present time.
> 
> That's not to say that there isn't value in his approach - there is if this is your preferred style.  He has obviously spent a significant amount of time perfecting what he's doing.  What I object to is his "mantra" that his system uses "dynamic time" and my approach is using "static time".  This is just nonsense to me and marketing semantics, and in my view misleading.
> 
> If he understood time and the pattern of trend he'd be able to perceive when the trend is clearly at risk (from the "McLaren" perspective), which from the evidence he doesn't.  So to label something he clearly doesn't understand with a pejorative term begs the question in my view.
> 
> I'd be fine with him calling his system "dynamic adjustment to price action", because that is what he's doing.  It is based on price highs and lows, NOT time (at least in the sense I am talking about).  In McLaren's terms he's using the "division of the range" in PRICE as a basis for his levels. Price is usually the third thing I look at in my approach, not the first.




I agree that Frank’s “time” and the Gann/Mclaren “time” are two totally different things.  Chalk and cheese – both useful depending on it’s intended use.  It probably also explains the differences in reading the market as the two systems are not alike and would possibly generate different signals at times.

I can understand why Frank uses his terminology as his methods rely on dynamic adjustments based on ever changing time frames, eg. yearly/monthly/weekly, etc, etc.  He does forecast – actually just over a week ago he came within 7 points of calling the last top on the SPI.  It was all done ahead of time.  About the 8th April, he was forecasting an important level at 3611 which was duly reached and the SPI promptly did a u-bolt as it hit that point. 

 Now, not all his intra-day forecasts have happened, but then it is interesting to watch how Frank adapts to the changing market conditions intra-day.  He is obviously very fluent with his own system – at this stage, it’s all much to fast for me to follow clearly.  I have only had 6 trading days watching his intra-day premium blog and really only just understanding his basic concepts from his book at this stage.  I don’t see it as a holy grail, rather a possible useful tool in the toolbox.

Interestingly, both the two forecasts I have mentioned above fitted in well with range equality in my quickly, sketched out swing charts.  I personally think it would be almost impossible to keep up with Gann style analysis on one minute charts, so one needs faster techniques for intra-day trading, IMO. 




> Motorway talked of "the" high, or "the" low, which is in my view a trap if you try to impose this on time cycles in my style.  Time cycles are often NOT based on key lows/highs in a significant number of cases.  Of course they are important, but they are only a piece of the puzzle in my view.  They become in my view a trap if you fixate too much on them.  But this is MY view for me and my "style"  I fully recognize that Frank and motorway have their own styles which works for them, and I salute that.




I take my hat off to you if you can understand Motorway’s posts!  I wish I could as they look interesting and he puts in a lot of effort, but for me, it’s like reading a foreign language.  But yes, I do understand what you are saying about major highs and lows in relation to time cycles.

I agree that Frank has his methods, and I am having a closer look to see if it or even parts of it will work for me.

Cheers


----------



## nunthewiser

Trembling Hand said:


> .
> 
> Internet gurus are a dime a dozen in this place. Their words are spread out like a sickness on this boards, like the one I replied to. I do not confess to knowing every thing about trading but I do know that I haven't seen an ACTUAL profitable Gann trader SHOW their profitable trading.
> 
> Thus my comment,




well ive scrolled back since this thread got bumped up and still have not seen any evidence of any actual trading as yet 

no offense intended but geez guys if i wanted to read a story i,d read a stickbook instead

lol and this is from someone who cares not on what methods you use , just dont bore me with another fairytale

hey if you got a reason for not showing statements which is fair enough .how about some advance trade picks instead of this hindsight claims to fame that is about all ive read here


----------



## Magdoran

Trembling Hand said:


> Magdoran you will not bully me out of this thread like you do to others that question you. My initial post in here that sparked this thread back to life was about the theorist calming the greatness of Gann.
> 
> My challenge to them at the time was to show practical evidence of the claimed greatness of Gann. Not one including you have shown it. I don't want you to point out your great calls. Any self proclaimed internet Guru can do that. As a real trader I can point out a few good ones of my own. But I know they don't make the "Trembling hand practical theory" valid. What does is showing a methods application IN the market making money. I 've done that with approx 2000s real trades backed up with statements.
> 
> My backing up of Tech was in response to you paying out on his tech trader. I think thats a ridiculus reply. Here is a system that was REALLY traded LIVE, that MADE lots of money and put out there for ALL to scrutinse. And you tried to dumb on it. Whats the point you are trying to make
> 
> Funny you mention Wavepicker because I find your reply the same as wavepickers reply when I first came on here. He dumped on a method I put up for some reason and tried to push it off. Then I find out later that he was confessing to trading greatness when his claimed yearly profit was what I make in a couple of weeks . THEN I find his been kicked off here because he been posting under other handles praising his own post  .
> 
> Internet gurus are a dime a dozen in this place. Their words are spread out like a sickness on this boards, like the one I replied to. I do not confess to knowing every thing about trading but I do know that I haven't seen an ACTUAL profitable Gann trader SHOW their profitable trading.
> 
> Thus my comment,



Trembling Hand,

You can be the apologist for tech and his lackey all you like.  

As for bullying, I ask you, who opened our little "tete a tete" with a snide disrespectful comment?  Did I ever attack you in this way?  No. Interesting that you are being so selfrigheous over this whe you cast the first stone.

I respond in kind.  Constructive and polite conversation with those who discuss, and scorn for those like you who chant meaningless mantras and make nasty small minded comments.  I've dealt with tech's belligerence for years, and if you want to step into the ring with your "perspicacity" (I've read your blog - my god, it is a treatise in naivety), be my guest.

When people like Lesm for example have asked questions in a polite and reasonable way, I've done my best to respond.  What gives you the right TH to act in such a poor fashion?  I've got no problems with discussion, but your kind of gutter thinking is beneath me.

I have not time for peons like you TH.  You're a waste of time.


----------



## Magdoran

sails said:


> I also heavily rely on software.    I am absolutely no mathematician, but I think after studying hundreds, if not thousands of risk graphs over the years, I can pretty much mentally visualize a lot of varying option strategies now.
> 
> 
> 
> Looking forward to putting a few more missing pieces of the jigsaw together as I feel there are lots of missing bits at the moment.  However, I believe I need to be able to devote the necessary time to understand McLaren’s work properly.  Would certainly appreciate any shortcuts when I get there!
> 
> 
> 
> I agree that Frank’s “time” and the Gann/Mclaren “time” are two totally different things.  Chalk and cheese – both useful depending on it’s intended use.  It probably also explains the differences in reading the market as the two systems are not alike and would possibly generate different signals at times.
> 
> I can understand why Frank uses his terminology as his methods rely on dynamic adjustments based on ever changing time frames, eg. yearly/monthly/weekly, etc, etc.  He does forecast – actually just over a week ago he came within 7 points of calling the last top on the SPI.  It was all done ahead of time.  About the 8th April, he was forecasting an important level at 3611 which was duly reached and the SPI promptly did a u-bolt as it hit that point.
> 
> Now, not all his intra-day forecasts have happened, but then it is interesting to watch how Frank adapts to the changing market conditions intra-day.  He is obviously very fluent with his own system – at this stage, it’s all much to fast for me to follow clearly.  I have only had 6 trading days watching his intra-day premium blog and really only just understanding his basic concepts from his book at this stage.  I don’t see it as a holy grail, rather a possible useful tool in the toolbox.
> 
> Interestingly, both the two forecasts I have mentioned above fitted in well with range equality in my quickly, sketched out swing charts.  I personally think it would be almost impossible to keep up with Gann style analysis on one minute charts, so one needs faster techniques for intra-day trading, IMO.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I take my hat off to you if you can understand Motorway’s posts!  I wish I could as they look interesting and he puts in a lot of effort, but for me, it’s like reading a foreign language.  But yes, I do understand what you are saying about major highs and lows in relation to time cycles.
> 
> I agree that Frank has his methods, and I am having a closer look to see if it or even parts of it will work for me.
> 
> Cheers



Hi Margaret,

Interesting.  Frank certainly has spent a lot of time on his system, and I note it works very well for intra-day trading.  You are correct, the Gann approaches are not very good for intra-day work from my perspective.  I have heard of some people claiming to use some of the methods successfully, but I'm skeptical about this, but I really don't know.  The way I work is certainly not intra-day.

motorway is enigmatic.  In some ways he seems very gifted, but in other ways is quite obscure.  I'm guessing a lot about his approach.  I really don't understand it (yet), but I suspect a lot about what he is doing.  Interesting work, but not sure how or if I can glean anything I can incorporate.  What it does do is provide an alternative perspective to help to inspire new angles of thought on this.

Kind Regards

Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

nunthewiser said:


> well ive scrolled back since this thread got bumped up and still have not seen any evidence of any actual trading as yet
> 
> no offense intended but geez guys if i wanted to read a story i,d read a stickbook instead
> 
> lol and this is from someone who cares not on what methods you use , just dont bore me with another fairytale
> 
> hey if you got a reason for not showing statements which is fair enough .how about some advance trade picks instead of this hindsight claims to fame that is about all ive read here



Sorry nunthewiser,

Posting is highly time consuming, and I really don't have the time to devote to it that I did in the past.  I have other obligations and pursuits, not to mention an invitation only group that is working on new ideas about the market.  In fact from here on in I will spend most of my time (market based activity time outside of my own work) focused on individuals in the group who I can help.

Another point, I gave countless examples in the past which was of value to the minority who want to pursue this style. Go to the links I've posted and read through them if you are really interested in learning this.  If not, then simply ignore my posts.

Additionally, you have to understand that "good" setups happen rarely, and it is only at specific times they become evident.  Sometimes there are only low probability trades on, and it's pointless posting these (as I did at times on demand in the past and then people would base their view of the effectiveness on a shot from the hip call made on demand). 

I'm completely out of the trading market right now both because I don't see any high probability trades on, and also because I'm not sharp enough physically to trade right now.  One of my rules to trade is to be in good condition physically and psychologically.  Does that make sense?

Respectfully, how many posts would I have to make to sate some of the detractors here?  The answer is that they will never be satisfied, will they?  They have no constructive motive, either they want to get it all for nothing, or they just want to attack what they don't understand.  If you were in the same position, how would you respond?  I don't owe them anything, and I'm not about to give them anything.

For those who have an interest, please do keep in contact. For those that don't, good luck in whatever path you choose.

Mag


----------



## tech/a

> Respectfully, how many posts would I have to make to sate some of the detractors here?




Just say 6 charts showing the practical application would be fine.

As for the Thread title
*"Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?"*

Moggie is evidently a fine exponent of the "Art"
The answer then truly lies within this thread.

If you do happen to be impressed by the complex rhetoric and part with your hard earned for the introductory course then again for the intermediate course and then again for the Masters course and then again for the Private invite only course not forgetting the "Secrets Course" and then the "Boot Camp" In Tahiti.

You'll find the circular non applicable argument/rhetoric here as well and you'll have to pay for the privilege---pay handsomely.

Is it a good basis for trading?
Well if you think so---Go ahead.


----------



## Magdoran

I'm not going to bother with this nonsense again.


I'm not recommending anyone spends $20K like tech did to get ahead.
I've made careful recommendations to save significant amounts of capital outlay, time, and paths to address trading psychology.
I've suggested ways to accelerate the learning process in detail.
I am not asking to be paid for this.
I have never abandoned my style on a whim mid way after having put up a system.

I have offered approaches to those who are interested for them to examine a range of alternatives if they think the materials warrant further consideration.

I've also said time after time this is not suitable for many people.  I've outlined in detail what I think is required based on what I have learned in good faith.

I'm sick to death of having people come in with little or no understanding, or a desire to be disruptive or with the aim of making abusive and unwarranted attacks.  Debates/discussions on a friendly basis are fine.  

Blatant spoiler attempts are just not constructive and in the end reflect on the nature of the aggressor.  I don't think I need to elaborate my position further.  My work speaks for itself.  Either people will find these perspectives useful and interesting which is my aim, or they won't.

I'm done with the negativity displayed here.  Those who are genuine can feel free to contact me privately.


----------



## tech/a

explod said:


> *And you probably wont'  *.   My interest in Gann was purely for his way of looking at things in his own time.   In my view how we got here is of benefit overall.   In saying that of course there are many hundreds of others who  have made enormous contributions.
> 
> Today I like the ways of Darryl Morely and Nick Radge, not connected to either but their matter of fact straight up the line approach works for basic trading.
> 
> Sorry still have not got that book out T/H, but will comment a bit more when I do.  And I am not going soft either, Gann made some very good contributions IMHO




Sadly you seem to be correct.

Maybe someone like Sails or Gazelle will furnish some charts,or indeed anyone who wishes to step up to the plate.


----------



## Frank D

Magdoran said:


> Re Franks work.  I've looked at this, and frankly (forgive the pun) I don't "buy" it.   Yes, it's a "dynamic system" since you adjust your appraisal as the market trends, but any system worth it's salt does this.  It is a reactive approach, not a forecasting approach.  I really don't think he gets "time" at all.




Actually looking at how most traders trade, I think your find that most if 
not all trade reactively.  

That’s strange, from what I can see it does a good job of forecasting
support and resistance levels in advance, and high probability turning
 points in advance. And those levels dynamically move forward as 
Time moves forward.

If you can’t understand that it can only move dynamically forward as 
TIME moves forward, then I'm sorry if it doesn’t fit in with your illusory
 square 9.



Magdoran said:


> The example of the Feb 24 2007 counter trend.  Frank was still long when this sharp pull back occurred.  If he really understood counter trends and "time", why doesn't his system deliver responses to address what to me are obvious situations where the trend is at risk?




I love you and Wave picker, digging up calls from years ago to try and 
prove your point.

*Chart Below....*

Why wouldn’t I still hold Stocks long if the market is traveling towards 
the 2007 highs:- there is a breakout of the 2006 highs.

There are margin positions (leverage) and cash trading positions…(holding long term trends)

You exit margin positions on Double monthly highs, as was the case in February and re-enter on pullbacks.

Is it my imagination but those levels in the chart seem to be moving dynamically:- Support and Resistance.



Magdoran said:


> What I object to is his "mantra" that his system uses "dynamic time" and
> my approach is using "static time".  This is just nonsense to me and marketing semantics, and in my view misleading.
> 
> If he understood time and the pattern of trend he'd be able to perceive when the trend is clearly at risk (from the "McLaren" perspective), which from the evidence he doesn't.  So to label something he clearly doesn't understand with a pejorative term begs the question in my view.





Mag,

You challenged me on my method a couple of years ago and I start 
my Thread, and its been going strong every since. I always put my calls 
out in the market in advance, and I put my levels there in advance.

I often call the market accurately in advance, and often get it wrong, 
but the important thing is, I display a method that every one can use if 
they wish because it displays the key elements of trading:- SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.

Let me say that again:- *the important parameters when Trading is SUPPORT and RESISTANCE*

I’ve developed a method that encompasses the long-term trader, the 
swing trader, and even the day-trader.

You have displayed nothing but empty words, rhetoric, and
 illusory information  that helps no one but to perpetuate the myth of 
Gann, and I guarantee you’ll never be able to display a method that 
helps anyone.


The start of this thread says….

_Gann, Honestly is it a good basis for Trading?_

*The Answer is a BIG FRIGGIN NO!!!!!!!*

That was a waste of 30 minutes of my life.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Magdoran said:


> As for bullying, I ask you, who opened our little "tete a tete" with a snide disrespectful comment?  Did I ever attack you in this way?  No. Interesting that you are being so selfrigheous over this whe you cast the first stone.
> 
> I respond in kind.  Constructive and polite conversation with those who discuss, and scorn for those like you who chant meaningless mantras and make nasty small minded comments.  I've dealt with tech's belligerence for years, and if you want to step into the ring with your "perspicacity" (I've read your blog - my god, it is a treatise in naivety), be my guest.
> 
> When people like Lesm for example have asked questions in a polite and reasonable way, I've done my best to respond.  What gives you the right TH to act in such a poor fashion?  I've got no problems with discussion, but your kind of gutter thinking is beneath me.
> 
> I have not time for peons like you TH.  You're a waste of time.




Magdoran and here is the crux of this thread. People are interested to see if Gann  "honestly, is it a good basis for trading". Its fair enough that someone who has some interest in the method should ask those pimping it to prove that it can actually be applied profitably in the market.

In an honest fashion.

But they don't or can't. Is that honest? Are they being plainly fraudulent claiming something that they don't actually do? We never get the answer to these questions. Just replies that we are beneath your superior understanding. 

This is what gives me the right. I helped a trader that came to me after losing a large amount of money by trading his account back to profit in weeks so he could start again with some reasonable cash. After being set out to find his own way he sent an email to me saying he had been following Trader Pauls astro stuff !! I was furious and just plainly gobsmacked!! He was amazed to find that Trader Paul doesn't actually trade and he had wasted MUCH time reading his post following something that clearly the author hasn't the confidence to trade 

Thats what gives me the right. I have ACTUALLY traded at least 10 peoples accounts on ASF into Significant profit so they have a basis to start to learn. If I can stop them and other newbies wasting a huge amount of time and good money and effort following a unproven empty method I will put up with arguments with the likes of you.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Magdoran said:


> Trembling Hand,
> 
> What of any value have you really contributed I'd like to ask?
> 
> What you lack my friend is substance.






Trembling Hand said:


> I have ACTUALLY traded at least 10 peoples accounts on ASF into Significant profit so they have a basis to start to learn. If I can stop them and other newbies wasting a huge amount of time and good money and effort following a unproven empty method I will put up with arguments with the likes of you.




This says it all.


----------



## sails

tech/a said:


> ...Maybe someone like Sails or Gazelle will furnish some charts,or indeed anyone who wishes to step up to the plate.




Oh boy, if I was a Gann expert, I would gladly furnish charts, etc.  But all the way through this thread I have indicated that I have lots of missing pieces to the Gann jigsaw.  My lack of directional ability was one of the main reasons I studied options due to bi-directional possibilities.  

If I was so good at Gann (and it worked), I wouldn't be studying Frank's ideas at the moment.  The little Gann I know does not help whatsoever with forecasts either. So, please exclude me from the list of Gann experts...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats what gives me the right. I have ACTUALLY traded at least 10 peoples accounts on ASF into Significant profit so they have a basis to start to learn. If I can stop them and other newbies wasting a huge amount of time and good money and effort following a unproven empty method I will put up with arguments with the likes of you. [/COLOR]




well if that is the case why come onto a Gann thread at all?

funny thing I have noticed here TH.

when you came onto the Elliot wave thread it turned into rubbish

now you come onto the Gann thread and it turns into rubbish...

*i am not saying you're rubbish*, but you have to look at the evidence of what your presence does... 

After all the biff what has really been proven here?

cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> well if that is the case why come onto a Gann thread at all?
> 
> funny thing I have noticed here TH.
> 
> when you came onto the Elliot wave thread it turned into rubbish
> 
> now you come onto the Gann thread and it turns into rubbish...
> 
> *i am not saying you're rubbish*, but you have to look at the evidence of what your presence does...
> 
> After all the biff what has really been proven here?
> 
> cheers,



Firstly its not the Gann thread. It a thread asking is it a valid method. It would seem thats its not because NO ONE can show that they trade using it.

Don't know whats wrong with questionig people who pimp a method to show its valid 

Which I have seen Nick and Tech do with EW. Without all the bluster of the Gannist.

So I should just shut up if i disagree with someone? then we can all just run around filling threads with sycophantic prase to the self proclaimed gurus??


----------



## tech/a

> After all the biff what has really been proven here?




*All we want is to see Gann Traded Realtime over say 6 trades to evaluate application*.

This cannot be done.
Thats proven.


----------



## Magdoran

Frank D said:


> Actually looking at how most traders trade, I think your find that most if
> not all trade reactively.
> 
> That’s strange, from what I can see it does a good job of forecasting
> support and resistance levels in advance, and high probability turning
> points in advance. And those levels dynamically move forward as
> Time moves forward.
> 
> If you can’t understand that it can only move dynamically forward as
> TIME moves forward, then I'm sorry if it doesn’t fit in with your illusory
> square 9.
> 
> 
> 
> I love you and Wave picker, digging up calls from years ago to try and
> prove your point.
> 
> *Chart Below....*
> 
> Why wouldn’t I still hold Stocks long if the market is traveling towards
> the 2007 highs:- there is a breakout of the 2006 highs.
> 
> There are margin positions (leverage) and cash trading positions…(holding long term trends)
> 
> You exit margin positions on Double monthly highs, as was the case in February and re-enter on pullbacks.
> 
> Is it my imagination but those levels in the chart seem to be moving dynamically:- Support and Resistance.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mag,
> 
> You challenged me on my method a couple of years ago and I start
> my Thread, and its been going strong every since. I always put my calls
> out in the market in advance, and I put my levels there in advance.
> 
> I often call the market accurately in advance, and often get it wrong,
> but the important thing is, I display a method that every one can use if
> they wish because it displays the key elements of trading:- SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.
> 
> Let me say that again:- *the important parameters when Trading is SUPPORT and RESISTANCE*
> 
> I’ve developed a method that encompasses the long-term trader, the
> swing trader, and even the day-trader.
> 
> You have displayed nothing but empty words, rhetoric, and
> illusory information  that helps no one but to perpetuate the myth of
> Gann, and I guarantee you’ll never be able to display a method that
> helps anyone.
> 
> 
> The start of this thread says….
> 
> _Gann, Honestly is it a good basis for Trading?_
> 
> *The Answer is a BIG FRIGGIN NO!!!!!!!*
> 
> That was a waste of 30 minutes of my life.



Hi Frank,

Just in the wind up I'll make a couple of comments.  Firstly, I asked questions out of interest to see what you were doing.  I never "challenged your method", I specifically questioned what exactly you meant by "static" vs "dynamic" time and probed a bit - politely I might add.  

My comments on this thread were taking issue with the way I see time cycles which I still am convinced you don't see.  I have never discounted that what you are doing has value.  But I do not see it as a forecasting style, and that was the distinction I was making.

You have however had a negative, and I'd say arrogant disposition towards me right back to the reefcap days when you were quite rude.  Nothing seems to have changed here.  How amusing to flop your bolded "resistance and support" comment out.  You really don't look outside of your own circus tent now do you?  (You know I don't use or subscribe to the square of 9).

The difference between you and I is that you have a course to sell, and I don't, right?  You'd traduce a whole area of knowledge in your sweeping bigoted fashion to squeeze a few dollars more out of your income base, wouldn't you?

Frankly, you've displayed your intellectual myopia for around a decade now.  Some things do stay the same don't they?  Nice to see you counter playing down you past failures when you have a few minor successes - sure, intra-day your system may have some application, but swing trading with derivatives?

Good to see you at your "eloquent" and "diplomatic" best Frank, and your highly analytical and informed examination of the topic.


----------



## Cartman

Magdoran said:


> Frank certainly has spent a lot of time on his system, and I note it works very well for intra-day trading.  You are correct, the *Gann approaches are not very good for intra-day* work from my perspective.  I have heard of some people claiming to use some of the methods successfully, but I'm skeptical about this, but I really don't know.  The way I work is certainly not intra-day.
> Magdoran





i read somewhere that Gaan was reported to have made a squillion dollars over a 25 day period trading both long and short --- anyone know if thats true??

If it is, his method should certainly be handy for intraday trading as well should it not ?

i gotta say i luv cycles as much as anyone :blover:    but it bemuses me a bit why we need to waffle around with finding the next big top or bottom thats maybe 3 or 6 months away??

i mean if a Gaanist is so sure that the next major time cycle is in June and that will likely be a major low, why not start scaling in now and just take advantage of their analysis 

i imagine having strong views on future price points would lend itself well to option trading (If the analysis is right of course!!) --- 

Wasnt the main thrust of Gaans concept simply lower highs, lower lows at reversal points etc etc ---- no rocket science there ---- seems to be a lot of unnecessary postulating going on methinks


i think Techs Blah Blah below is directed at whats on top of me  LOL ----  Can we swap possies haha


----------



## tech/a

*Blah blah blah blah blah blah.*

Charts??


----------



## Bobby

tech/a said:


> *All we want is to see Gann Traded Realtime over say 6 trades to evaluate application*.
> 
> This cannot be done.
> Thats proven.




There's more chance of seeing the second coming Tech .


----------



## Cartman

PS im genuinely interested in this time stuff and why we need to spend inordinate amounts of "time" considering it?

Franks method of gauging possible price movement relative to time (and the range a given instrument has been trading in), makes perfect sense to me --- 

im curious as to how time could be "considered" in another way, yet still be useful to a trader? 

sometimes i think too much analysis is put b4 the horse ----- charts are what they are because the traders with the deep pockets move them around to make money --- if they aint moving, the traders will make them move cause thats all theyre interested in --- movement --- 

Time just gives a relative speed to that movement ---- Momentum.


----------



## Magdoran

Final words...

Anyone out there read "the Black Swan" yet by N.N.Taleb?  Interesting read about logical errors that are often made with tragic results even by the professionals.

When I hear this kind of sweeping absolute statement, I laugh:

_This cannot be done.
That's proven. _

Bypassing the Maginot line through the Ardennes , Aviation, Flying a manned mission to the moon, nuclear fission - the list goes on.  Just because some people can't understand something doesn't mean that the case is proven that it can't be done, or is not feasible.

Even when you demonstrate clearly that there is something quite powerful around this, it is never enough for the small band of fanatics.

What I have yet to see on this thread from that camp are sensible measured discussion points based on the work in question in depth.  The evidence is there about one portion of a large work.  Like Sails, I can't even contemplate trying to assume the mantle of being an "expert" in all aspects of a lifetimes work.  I've delved into what I can on many fronts including EW, and I'm still learning.

I have attempted to intelligently make a case for quite a few years now.  It is up to each individual to do the due diligence and decide for themselves.  No amount of mind game playing is going to influence me to change my thinking.  

Cold hard logic and reality will continue to be my guide.  I hope this example will provide inspiration for the people out there with inquiring minds, and give them some fortitude to ignore the "myopic inquisition".

Magdoran


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Cartman said:


> PS im genuinely interested in this time stuff and why we need to spend inordinate amounts of "time" considering it?
> 
> Franks method of gauging possible price movement relative to time (and the range a given instrument has been trading in), makes perfect sense to me ---
> 
> im curious as to how time could be "considered" in another way, yet still be useful to a trader?
> 
> sometimes i think too much analysis is put b4 the horse ----- charts are what they are because the traders with the deep pockets move them around to make money --- if they aint moving, the traders will make them move cause thats all theyre interested in --- movement ---
> 
> Time just gives a relative speed to that movement ---- Momentum.




If you're really interested in trading Gann time, talk to Magdoran 

Tech Magdoran has posted plenty of charts with explination over the years with a incredible hit rate on his turn points as well.

I am not a Gann fan in anyway but I have total respect for what Magdoran can do.

cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

Magdoran said:


> Just because some people can't understand something doesn't mean that the case is proven that it can't be done, or is not feasible.




Yes I agree 100%. That's why before you waste countless hours following someones lead make sure they are actually practising what they preach.


----------



## Cartman

>Apocalypto< said:


> If you're really interested in trading Gann time, talk to Magdoran
> 
> I am not a Gann fan in anyway but I have total respect for what Magdoran can do.




Apoc, i think most of us have respect for Magdoran,  --- i dont think there is anything personal meant by most who are quizzing the method 

im not looking to trade Gaan time, but i am curious how we can perceive time to be anything other than a relative concept (relative to price) when talking trading markets?? ---- putting  a man on the moon is pure mathematics and physics ---- markets are a different swarm of bees i reckon



Magdoran said:


> Final words...
> 
> Anyone out there read "the Black Swan" yet by N.N.Taleb?  Interesting read about logical errors that are often made with tragic results even by the professionals.
> 
> When I hear this kind of sweeping absolute statement, I laugh:
> 
> _This cannot be done.
> That's proven. _
> 
> Bypassing the Maginot line through the Ardennes , *Aviation, Flying a manned mission to the moon, nuclear fission* - the list goes on.  Just because some people can't understand something doesn't mean that the case is proven that it can't be done, or is not feasible.
> 
> Magdoran




im not gonna go on either --- too tired to look for an argument this week 

i see the Markets simply as a result/bi-product of human emotions at work --- the desire for wealth --- trying to overlay long term time cycles onto that platform seems a difficult task  ---- BUT --- if you enjoy the work/study, i say good luck to you --- thats more important in the end anyway !


----------



## Frank D

Magdoran said:


> The difference between you and I is that you have a course to sell, and I don't, right?  You'd traduce a whole area of knowledge in your sweeping bigoted fashion to squeeze a few dollars more out of your income base, wouldn't you?




Well for the amount of work I put in for a measly  $43 per month to cover
 at least some of my time. You might say I have a course to sell.

I also post freely on this website.




Magdoran said:


> You have however had a negative, and I'd say arrogant disposition towards me right back to the reefcap days when you were quite rude.  Nothing seems to have changed here.




Well I haven’t mentioned your name before, and I’m simply responding to 
your comments about me in this thread.

Now I remember why I have an arrogant disposition towards you....

 Because you were a goose then and you’re still a goose now. 

Some things really do remain static.

Time to  move on...


----------



## explod

Frank D said:


> Well for the amount of work I put in for a measly  $43 per month to cover
> at least some of my time. You might say I have a course to sell.
> 
> I also post freely on this website.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> :




And I for one hope you keep doing so.  Your common sense insights and obvious knowledge comes through.

Thank you          explod

ps: and I am not a subscriber either


----------



## bunyip

Cartman said:


> i see the Markets simply as a result/bi-product of human emotions at work --- the desire for wealth --- trying to overlay long term time cycles onto that platform seems a difficult task  ---- BUT --- if you enjoy the work/study, i say good luck to you --- thats more important in the end anyway !




That's fair comment, there are real benefits in enjoying what we're doing.
But some people become so fanatical about the work and study and theories that they rarely get around to trading. When I see those bloody great long posts that prattle on and on with theories and rhetoric, I have to wonder if the person concerned is the real deal who actually trades professionally for a living, or whether he's just a pretender who likes to come across as a bottomless pit of knowledge, but is unable to convert that knowledge into practical trading ability that produces real profits.
I've come across countless people over the years who were walking encyclopaedias of trading knowledge, but were only paper traders because they had a history of wrecking their accounts whenever they tried trading with real money.
When it's all said and done, trading is first and foremost about making money, not constantly sprouting theories about how to.


----------



## seekandfind

Very interesting how this thread developes as time goes on. One e-mail sparks a flurry, and then sometimes nothing for days, weeks, and then one e-mail can suddenly spark another flurry. Any familiarity with trading?



OK, straight to the point. A CHALLENGE. LETS see if there is real value in GANN, and lets make believers of the NON believers. This will be fun!!!!

Starting January 1st 2009 thru December 31st 2009 let us all make a record of our chosen trading account, with starting balance and closing balance. At the end of the year those that choose to continue to argue about the merits of this approach will be given a chance to show if they are real traders. We will get an independent auditor and accountant to review the trading statements. Posting these on a public forum is understandably an issue. Anyone considered the taxation implications!!!!!

Those that are skeptical of GANN, choose your representative to represent you as your champion VERSUS ME. I will represent GANN. At the end of the year if my trading account shows a greater return, then I pay nothing for the costs in getting this challenge independently audited. Further to that lets put up a dollar wager of 10,000 USD to the winner!! The loser pays the winner 10,000 USD plus all costs associated with this challenge. We will get a solicitor to arrange setting up the contract, all legal and above board.

OK non believers who wants to step up to the plate and challenge me?
If you want to revise these conditions feel free to suggest an alternative. 

I think this will silence the critics once and for all. Warning any shallow and mindless responses to this will be obvious.

I look forward to your responses!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

seekandfind read this then PM me your details. Take note of the challenge from post 40ish

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10405&highlight=weekly+income

You wanna do it via % return or dollar return?

read this one,

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683


----------



## jersey10

good luck seekandfind, you're going to need it


----------



## Trembling Hand

Further to this challenge I'm happy to play the game but the gannist have been give a chance to post proof of their methods, and still most welcome to show that they have traded using Gann. They still haven't. 

so any challenge of % returns I will want to have a start date of Now or some time in the next couple off weeks.

no doubt a few other things to iron out but looking forward to it.


----------



## MRC & Co

LOL, this will be funny.  

Want some more contracts to hit for the challenge TH?  I'll give you half my limits and take 50% of winnings on my contracts.


----------



## tech/a

Just want 6 charts but I'm happy to have your PM as well.
This will be fun.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh just another thing. I'm not saying my method is the ducks guts just that I apply it. Which is what we haven't seen from the Gann dudes. which is what is so frustrating.







(oh and my method is better)

:


----------



## MS+Tradesim

How would it in fact be proved that seekandfind is applying Gann theory to real trading and not just using some other proven method with records overlaid by esoteric phrases? 

An independent auditor will only validate the trading records, not that Gann was actually deployed.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh just another thing. I'm not saying my method is the ducks guts just that I apply it. Which is what we haven't seen from the Gann dudes. which is what is so frustrating.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> (oh and my method is better)
> 
> 
> 
> :




Same here,mines better because I can apply it.
Ive not seen one demonstration of Gann live.
Guess I'm not about to either.
For me I would want to see the trades that have actually been Gann based not just swing trading.
The sort of analysis which has been touted as necessary complexity in trading.
Astro stuff and Squares off highs and Lows.
So if this is all part of the challenge and BOTH are open to public scrutiny,I'm excited!

M/S we crossed.
*I agree.*
Starnge how "Seek and Find" just appears out of now where.

One of the Gann clan.


----------



## Bobby

tech/a said:


> *I agree.*
> Starnge how "Seek and Find" just appears out of now where.
> 
> One of the Gann clan.




Yes ! the timing is interesting  
Could just disappear out of know where also ..


----------



## prawn_86

I am happy to 'moderate' this challenge if you guys desire that. I think it would be good to be in the public domain, but understand if you dont want to make $ figures shown.

Also, note how SeekandFind wants to 'start' from 4 months ago. Probably has made some money at the start of this year so thinks he/she will have a head start... :


----------



## jersey10

prawn_86 said:


> but understand if you dont want to make $ figures shown.




thats like watching a porno with the rude bits blurred.  seeing the dollar amounts will add to the show!


----------



## tech/a

prawn_86 said:


> I am happy to 'moderate' this challenge if you guys desire that. I think it would be good to be in the public domain, but understand if you dont want to make $ figures shown.
> 
> Also, note how SeekandFind wants to 'start' from 4 months ago. Probably has made some money at the start of this year so thinks he/she will have a head start... :




Didnt see that.
What a bonus!


----------



## Cartman

prawn_86 said:


> Also, note how SeekandFind wants to *'start' from 4 months ago*. Probably has made some money at the start of this year so thinks he/she will have a head start... :




well noted Prawn --- you'll make a moderator on this site one day with perceptive powers like that !!! --- 

What --- your already a Mod !!!!  --- Why the hell wasnt i asked --- bludy young upstarts !!!  

Seriously though  SeekandFind, you want a competition where you already have a few runs on the board to give you an advantage ??

That being the case I'll only give you evens ----  and i'm still on TH !!!! and i dont know how much in front you are !! 

(if you want to start from scratch, i'll give you 2-1 !!!) ------ 5 grand up  (im not a big punter sorry)


----------



## Bobby

prawn_86 said:


> Also, note how SeekandFind wants to 'start' from 4 months ago. Probably has made some money at the start of this year so thinks he/she will have a head start... :




Prawn well spoted but T/H has said he would like to start now or in a couple of weeks .
Read SeekandFinds first post , I'm very suspicious  :bs:  notice the phraseology ,   will apologize if I'm wrong .


----------



## jersey10

Prawn, 

Are there any legal implications regarding setting up this sort of trader v trader thing on an internet forum?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> I am happy to 'moderate' this challenge if you guys desire that. I think it would be good to be in the public domain, but understand if you dont want to make $ figures shown.
> 
> Also, note how SeekandFind wants to 'start' from 4 months ago. Probably has made some money at the start of this year so thinks he/she will have a head start... :




well spotted....

that's not fair and should not be included.

both should start from0 and go for a agreed a length of time, equal open balance.

let the games begin!


----------



## Trader Paul

Trembling Hand said:


> Magdoran and here is the crux of this thread. People are interested to see if Gann  "honestly, is it a good basis for trading". Its fair enough that someone who has some interest in the method should ask those pimping it to prove that it can actually be applied profitably in the market.
> 
> In an honest fashion.
> 
> But they don't or can't. Is that honest? Are they being plainly fraudulent claiming something that they don't actually do? We never get the answer to these questions. Just replies that we are beneath your superior understanding.
> 
> This is what gives me the right. I helped a trader that came to me after losing a large amount of money by trading his account back to profit in weeks so he could start again with some reasonable cash. After being set out to find his own way he sent an email to me saying he had been following Trader Pauls astro stuff !! I was furious and just plainly gobsmacked!! He was amazed to find that Trader Paul doesn't actually trade and he had wasted MUCH time reading his post following something that clearly the author hasn't the confidence to trade
> 
> Thats what gives me the right. I have ACTUALLY traded at least 10 peoples accounts on ASF into Significant profit so they have a basis to start to learn. If I can stop them and other newbies wasting a huge amount of time and good money and effort following a unproven empty method I will put up with arguments with the likes of you.






... well, this self-proclaimed trading guru th, has made these same assertions
previously  ..... assertions, that are totally, unfounded ..... !~!

His "client" and th have both obviously been misinformed about my own
trading ... and it would be nice to know, where such misinformation 
originated ... certainly, not from anybody who knows me, personally ... !~!

..... NOTHING gives you the right to bad-mouth somebody, that you 
do not know, especially, when it's based on fabricated information.

So, maybe it's time for th (or anybody else) to put up the "proof",
where he has established, that i do not trade, period .....
..... (leave off trading for a living) ..... 

..... show me and everybody else here. 

over to you

   paul



=====


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL well I will unreservedly apologize if I have been misinformed but it was actually *from someone on your side of the fence.* I will dig up the PMs tomorrow and forward them.

Of course you could always post up some statements of your great gann trading and prove me wrong.


----------



## beamstas

This will be great to see
I'd love to see T/H go from 1k to 50k in a week again 

He makes trades in the time it takes me to finish eating my weetbix in the morning than i make in a year 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Bobby

Trader Paul said:


> ... well, this self-proclaimed trading guru th,
> 
> 
> =====




What a crap statement , T/H has proved his !!!!!!!!!

Hey were are yours  :sheep:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Magdoran and here is the crux of this thread. People are interested to see if Gann  "honestly, is it a good basis for trading". Its fair enough that someone who has some interest in the method should ask those pimping it to prove that it can actually be applied profitably in the market.
> 
> In an honest fashion.
> 
> But they don't or can't. Is that honest? Are they being plainly fraudulent claiming something that they don't actually do? We never get the answer to these questions. Just replies that we are beneath your superior understanding.
> 
> This is what gives me the right. I helped a trader that came to me after losing a large amount of money by trading his account back to profit in weeks so he could start again with some reasonable cash. After being set out to find his own way he sent an email to me saying he had been following Trader Pauls astro stuff !! I was furious and just plainly gobsmacked!! He was amazed to find that Trader Paul doesn't actually trade and he had wasted MUCH time reading his post following something that clearly the author hasn't the confidence to trade
> 
> Thats what gives me the right. I have ACTUALLY traded at least 10 peoples accounts on ASF into Significant profit so they have a basis to start to learn. If I can stop them and other newbies wasting a huge amount of time and good money and effort following a unproven empty method I will put up with arguments with the likes of you.




TH dont you need a AFSL to manage other peoples money??

I would be very careful my friend! (ASIC)

cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

beamstas said:


> I'd love to see T/H go from 1k to 50k in a week again




ok now this is turning into the rookie thread on Forex Factory.

jeezzzzzzz


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> TH dont you need a AFSL to manage other peoples money??
> 
> I would be very careful my friend! (ASIC)
> 
> cheers




Thanks for the concern but its MY money I put into their account.


----------



## Naked shorts

>Apocalypto< said:


> TH dont you need a AFSL to manage other peoples money??
> 
> I would be very careful my friend! (ASIC)
> 
> cheers




Only if he is making a profit from it for himself (i.e. a commercial venture).


----------



## Bobby

>Apocalypto< said:


> TH dont you need a AFSL to manage other peoples money??
> 
> I would be very careful my friend! (ASIC)
> 
> cheers




Thats a suss thing to say , anyone can give advise to a friend & help them trade , what Pandora's box are you tying to open  ?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Thanks for the concern but its MY money I put into their account.




ok,

but whatever you do be careful what u post.....

cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Bobby said:


> Thats a stupid thing to say , anyone can give advise to a friend & help them trade , what Pandora's box are you tying to open




make a bet?

I am not talking about advice or factual information. I am talking about managing peoples money big diff chief........ 

go talk to ASIC about that mate...........


----------



## alwaysLearning

>Apocalypto< said:


> ok now this is turning into the rookie thread on Forex Factory.
> 
> jeezzzzzzz




Don't knock Forex Factory haha--I love that forum 

Btw--I think Auslanco used a gann high low indicator in one of his systems and a lot of people there know how good he is as a trader. (freaking amazing).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

alwaysLearning said:


> Don't knock Forex Factory haha--I love that forum
> 
> Btw--I think Auslanco used a gann high low indicator in one of his systems and a lot of people there know how good he is as a trader. (freaking amazing).




yeh mate its a great forum......

I have picked up so much from some of the posters there.

Yeh read Auslanco, great stuff, I am not a gannist nor ever want to be but i respect the skilled practitioners.

check out Igork he is a freak! Top mind as well

cheers


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> This will be great to see
> I'd love to see T/H go from 1k to 50k in a week again
> 
> He makes trades in the time it takes me to finish eating my weetbix in the morning than i make in a year
> 
> Cheers
> Brad






Bobby said:


> What a crap statement , T/H has proved his !!!!!!!!!
> 
> Hey were are yours  :sheep:





Haha ------ the real deal is not hard to pick is it !!!

We are privileged to see how a "real trader' operates -----  If i had more cash on hand i'd up my anti to 3-1 on TH, but MM needs to be employed to protect capital  lol ---- or does it !! 

stuff it ---- i'm in for 10 ---- (i'll take a loan for the rest ------ actually if its over 12 months i'm in for 20 grand ----- money in the bank i reckon  ---- and im serious ---- i'll legitimately put 20 grand up on an even money bet if this is serious !!!!!!!!!!!!!! and if its on a "fresh" start date where both parties are starting equally, ill put up 50K !!!   

In the words of the famous Mike Tyson ----- "sign the contract big boy, sign the contract" ------ i repeat, im serious !!!!  ---- backing TH is a lot safer than letting me trade on my own for 12 months  lol -----  bring it on !!!!


----------



## Bobby

>Apocalypto< said:


> make a bet?
> 
> I am not talking about advice or factual information. I am talking about managing peoples money big diff chief........
> 
> go talk to ASIC about that mate...........




I took that as an attack on T/H ,  got it  wrong ,  sorry Apocalypto


----------



## Trader Paul

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL well I will unreservedly apologize if I have been misinformed but it was actually *from someone on your side of the fence.* I will dig up the PMs tomorrow and forward them.
> 
> Of course you could always post up some statements of your great gann trading and prove me wrong.






So you admit, that your attacks on me were based on gossip then, th ... ???

Any time you are ready ... i am awaiting your unreserved apology, as
PMs from anybody prove NOTHING ... except, that you are prepared to
base your posts on nothing more than gossip ... too, too sad ..... 

waiting

 paul


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trader Paul said:


> So you admit, that your attacks on me were based on gossip then, th ... ???
> 
> Any time you are ready ... i am awaiting your unreserved apology, as
> PMs from anybody prove NOTHING ... except, that you are prepared to
> base your posts on nothing more than gossip ... too, too sad .....
> 
> waiting
> 
> paul




Statements Paul? got any?


----------



## Sicilian Trader

Trader Paul said:


> So you admit, that your attacks on me were based on gossip then, th ... ???
> 
> Any time you are ready ... i am awaiting your unreserved apology, as
> PMs from anybody prove NOTHING ... except, that you are prepared to
> base your posts on nothing more than gossip ... too, too sad .....
> 
> waiting
> 
> paul




so many damn smiley faces


----------



## Sicilian Trader

Trembling Hand said:


> Statements Paul? got any?





no, 

but have a good day

happy days


----------



## Trader Paul

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL well I will unreservedly apologize if I have been misinformed but it was actually *from someone on your side of the fence.* I will dig up the PMs tomorrow and forward them.






.... isn't it up to the accuser to provide the proof .. ???

So, let's see the proof of my lack of trades and those 
PMs should also make for interesting reading, too ... 

... over to you, th.

God bless you

  paul



=====


----------



## Trembling Hand

Paul I will forward you the PMs when I dig them up. But with the above comment I rest my case. Yes I have based what I said on unproven info from other posters.

But many will still be wondering about the statements. For now you are dead right I have no proof.

THATS BEEN MY POINT all the time.


----------



## alwaysLearning

>Apocalypto< said:


> yeh mate its a great forum......
> 
> I have picked up so much from some of the posters there.
> 
> Yeh read Auslanco, great stuff, I am not a gannist nor ever want to be but i respect the skilled practitioners.
> 
> check out Igork he is a freak! Top mind as well
> 
> cheers




Many thanks, I'll have a look for some of Igork's posts


----------



## Cartman

Trader Paul said:


> .... isn't it up to the accuser to provide the proof .. ???
> 
> So, let's see the proof of my lack of trades and those
> PMs should also make for interesting reading, too ...
> 
> ... over to you, th.
> 
> God bless you
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====




personally i think those PM's are "personal" information and should not be divulged on the Forum proper, but "admission" from the necessary party will be "interesting" as you say TP ------ honesty is a good attribute !! ---- i have yet to see TH talk cr@p on this Forum


----------



## Naked shorts

Patience TH, patience. Cooking up broker statements takes time, they cant just be made in the deep fryer, they only come properly after a thorough round in the slow cooker.


----------



## Trader Paul

Trembling Hand said:


> Paul I will forward you the PMs when I dig them up. But with the above comment I rest my case. Yes I have based what I said on unproven info from other posters.
> 
> But many will still be wondering about the statements. For now you are dead right I have no proof.






"Yes I have based what I said on unproven info from other posters."

 "For now you are dead right I have no proof."

You have no proof to back up your accusations ... and you admit that 
you have no sound basis for your accusations, so where's that unreserved apology, th ... ???

Honesty pays dividends and a loose mouth can cost you plenty ... !~!

waiting

 paul



=====


----------



## nunthewiser

Dear Trader paul,and the other Gann spruikers/users here



does it worry you if ppl now view your posts as merely stories and maybe wishfull thinking ? 


just curious actually as my posts here are taken with salt BUT they tend to be real time trades posted AT the time (right AND wrong), i personally dont care if MY posts are regarded as fictisious and wishful thinking trades .worries me not .( im mainly here for the entertainment)

just wondering if People doubting that you actually trade at all worries you ?and will it affect your postings in the future knowing that the readers will now view them as merely fairytales ?

thanks in advance for a sincere answer


----------



## nunthewiser

p.s

Dear trembling hand

heres 1000 bucks . i,ll be round to pick up the 50 k in a month


----------



## Trader Paul

nunthewiser said:


> Dear Trader paul,
> 
> does it worry you if ppl now view your posts as merely stories and maybe wishfull thinking ?
> 
> just curious actually as my posts here are taken with salt BUT they tend to be real time trades posted AT the time (right AND wrong), i personally dont care if MY posts are regarded as fictisious and wishful thinking trades .worries me not .( im mainly here for the entertainment)
> 
> and will it affect your postings in the future knowing that the readers
> will now view them as merely fairytales ?
> 
> thanks in advance for a sincere answer






Hi nunthewiser,

..... the only fairytales around here, are invented by the self-proclaimed
gurus, who choose to put down other traders, with malicious untruths ... 

Those who are learning how to use Gann's stuff, often ask for astroanalysis
on particular stocks, so i will continue to post it, as it is probably the only 
analysis of the TIME axis that they will get to consider, alongside their
regular technical analysis (price) ..... 

..... often, it is those with the biggest mouths, that know the LEAST
about a particular trading approach ... meanwhile, it is the quiet traders, 
who are committed to some real study and real trading.

... and like you ... "i personally dont care if MY posts are regarded as
fictitious and wishful thinking trades, it worries me not." 

What IS a worry, is when people post unsubstantiated information about
other traders, when they clearly DO NOT HAVE A CLUE, about the 
real truth ... !~!

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## nunthewiser

Trader Paul said:


> Those who are learning how to use Gann's stuff, often ask for astroanalysis
> on particular stocks, so i will continue to post it, as it is probably the only
> analysis of the TIME axis that they will get to consider, alongside their
> regular technical analysis (price) .....
> 
> 
> =====




would you have any current examples or have the time to give a reading on say , BHP , MTS ..LKO etc etc . no worries if these are not in your list .... would be intrested to see some gann thoughts i,e timelines etc on any other stock you choose tho

thanks


----------



## Trader Paul

nunthewiser said:


> would you have any current examples or have the time to give a reading on say , BHP , MTS ..LKO etc etc . no worries if these are not in your list .... would be intrested to see some gann thoughts i,e timelines etc on any other stock you choose tho
> 
> thanks






Hi nunthewiser,

..... maybe you want to go to the otherGann thread for some other
astroanalysis on COH, for example.

LKO ..... just tipped this in one in the hc May comp ... 

have a great day

    paul



=====


----------



## Sean K

Trader Paul said:


> Hi nunthewiser,
> 
> ..... maybe you want to go to the otherGann thread for some other
> astroanalysis on COH, for example.
> 
> LKO ..... just tipped this in one in the hc May comp ...
> 
> have a great day
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====



But Yogi, how do you actually trade the information you get. For example, your updates always include statement such as 'positive cycle' 'expect negative news' etc etc. If it's positive or negative does that just mean that you're going long, or short, during those particular phases? Is it that simple? Or, are you combining that information with regular FA and TA to determine entry and exit signals?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

jersey10 said:


> thats like watching a porno with the rude bits blurred.  seeing the dollar amounts will add to the show!



Trading is all about dollars.

I just wish all would not bicker and have good discussions on what is an interesting topic. I appreciate everyone for their help and input that has inspired me.


----------



## nunthewiser

I actually hold LKO at .005 my entry was based on creeping vols and MY interpretation of the chart .this is merely a park and wait trade for me with no actual timeline involved . 

intrested to see any timeline analysis you have if any on LKO tho

cheers

oh yeah looked at other gann thread re COH


----------



## Trader Paul

kennas said:


> But Yogi, how do you actually trade the information you get. For example, your updates always include statement such as 'positive cycle' 'expect negative news' etc etc. If it's positive or negative does that just mean that you're going long, or short, during those particular phases? Is it that simple? Or, are you combining that information with regular FA and TA to determine entry and exit signals?






Hi kennas,

 No consideration for FA, only TA ... maybe you want to go the the other 
Gann thread and read the recent posts, as well ... 

have a good one

   paul



=====


----------



## Bobby

kennas said:


> But Yogi, how do you actually trade the information you get. For example, your updates always include statement such as 'positive cycle' 'expect negative news' etc etc. If it's positive or negative does that just mean that you're going long, or short, during those particular phases? Is it that simple? Or, are you combining that information with regular FA and TA to determine entry and exit signals?




Kennas   Mate you can ask Gann experts simple questions like you did  , but you get back answers ~ like its the heat of the meat & the angle of the dangle .....

Whoops best you delete this


----------



## tech/a

Gazelle

*You seem well versed.*

Any chance of some charts showing application of the principal---you know looking forward.
Perhaps a brief run down on why X is entry or Y is exit.
Or anything else you may see as relative to applying the method.

Cant believe how hard it is to get some charts on the topic up on a board.


----------



## sails

Been some trades today on the puts Gazelle was looking at CBAKM7 - first time they have traded for quite a while.  If Gazelle has bought them - perhaps he would be kind enough to explain the analysis?


----------



## beamstas

This thread sucks
Waste of time reading

*QUESTION: "Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?"*

*ANSWER: No! Because no body seems to bloody trade it!*

I don't even see how its practical
Average joe is about to buy some shares.. oh frick i'll have to wait until saturn lines up with jupiter before i buy these 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## gazelle

Hi Sails , I didnt end up taking the trade , the 23rd bought in a marginal secondary high but I just didnt feel confident in the way it was setting up so I passed this one up . that doesnt matter there will always be something else .


----------



## nunthewiser

beamstas said:


> This thread sucks
> Waste of time reading
> 
> *QUESTION: "Gann, honestly, is it a good basis for trading?"*
> 
> *ANSWER: No! Because no body seems to bloody trade it!*
> 
> I don't even see how its practical
> Average joe is about to buy some shares.. oh frick i'll have to wait until saturn lines up with jupiter before i buy these
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




simple

dont read it ?


----------



## sails

gazelle said:


> Hi Sails , I didnt end up taking the trade , the 23rd bought in a marginal secondary high but I just didnt feel confident in the way it was setting up so I passed this one up . that doesnt matter there will always be something else .




Thanks Gazelle 

Is there any Gann type analysis you would be willing to share that pointed you to the 23rd?  It turned out you were right with your lower high (at least at this stage).  With limited Gann knowledge, I would be interested in anything you could share?


----------



## gazelle

Sails . 45 90 days and 10 years into that date . these were some of the reasons I was looking at the possibility of a top into this date . when dealing with long term fixed cycles you have to make considerations for leap years . once long term and intermediate time cycles move into proportionate alignment you can look for evidence of a change in trend . This must be confirmed by other factors and always set your stops and predetermine profit targets before initiating a trade .


----------



## nunthewiser

gazelle said:


> Beamstas : Were you standing behind the door when the brains were handed out or were you issued with a half serve  .  Simpletons like you are a constant form of amuesment around here .   Why dont you totter off and play with your little ipod .
> .





actually the constant emotio0nal outbursts in your replies leads to me believe that you actually dont posess the qualities needed to be a succesful trader regardless of how much gobbledygook you spew on these pages 

still no proof of trades 

no nothing except childish insults at ANYONE that trys to detract from gann spruikers

have a nice day darl and please control your emotions


----------



## beamstas

gazelle said:


> Beamstas : Were you standing behind the door when the brains were handed out or were you issued with a half serve.




When god was handing out brains
I thought he said trains
So i asked for one that goes in reverse 




nunthewiser said:


> actually the constant emotio0nal outbursts in your replies leads to me believe that you actually dont posess the qualities needed to be a succesful trader regardless of how much gobbledygook you spew on these pages
> 
> still no proof of trades
> 
> no nothing except childish insults at ANYONE that trys to detract from gann spruikers
> 
> have a nice day darl and please control your emotions




Stop Press!
Nunthewiser
Actually sticking up for me!
We better not tell anyone about this nun
Don't wanna ruin our reputation 


Still no statements..


Cheers
Brad


----------



## Sicilian Trader

This thread is seriously becoming a fricking joke. I am not even involved in the discussion and I am losing my sh*t just logging on each night hoping to find updates (graphs / gann explanations) and just finding more excuses, procrastination, or simply just more empty replies from Gannists blatantly ignoring straight forward and simple questions.

I will state again that I sit on the fence. I am not against Gann or for him (at this stage in my learning. I am educating myself on some of his methods as his body or work is quite extensive, and very interesting. I am learning about his apprach along with a host of other approaches (non gann) and will continue to do so until I find what suits me. So I am not on the attack towards Gannists per se but more so towards people who just arent supplying any info to other members who are genuinely here to learn and listen.

It becomes incredibly frustating when someone puts all their energy in avoiding intelligent questions, be it in trading or any aspect of life for that matter.

If one is here is to learn, to become better a trader, to educate themselves (free of charge), then surely those same people would like to give something back by being as transparent as practicable (without giving away too much IP of course).

I have been here a short amount of time and have learnt more here than any other avenue on trading education. As soon as I become knowledge, I intend on sharing with others - who take a genuine interest, seems fair.

I can understand the likes of Gazelle and Trader Paul not really wanting to give info to the likes of tech/a and TH, as their undertone can be condescending at times (doesnt bother me but can see how it can bother others), but heavens sake, there are a host of others who are genuinely interested and who are asking so politely about seeing charts and some basic explanations (basic). I have seen the likes of Sails ask on numerous occassions, asking for example, with courtesy and respect, only to be ignored. Some are asking in such a polite way that its almost infuriating. Just basic info like your _rationale for entry / rationale for exit_ and maybe things like : _July 10 - postive cycle, July 12 - strong likelyhood of a rally : I will use an OTM call option_

Trader Paul, lets say someone asks you out of genuine interest the following: 
ASF Member : _"Trader Paul, if there is a stong probability, based on your analysis, of x happenning on a particular date (ie. a very positive cycle for August), how do you trade it TP?_

Couldnt a likely answer be something along the lines of:
_"...Thank you for your quesiton ASF Member, I will be buy an OTM call option, expiry x, currently they are trading at around x, if I am right then my upside will be x , if wrong, then I just lose my premium and then out to fight another day, Have a great day, happy days" _ ....?????

Seriously it cant be that hard can it?!! The only knowledgable and genuine person I have come across on this topic, willing to give their time and their explanations, is Magdoran. And he doesnt use Gann in its entirety, he uses it as part of his overall strategy. But that is it, that is the only person. And honestly, he is the only person that is holding my interest on the topic of Gann. If I had to rely on the likes of Trader Paul, Bronte, Battman, Happy Trader to hold my interest, I would have discounted Gann a long time ago, probably on day 2 of ASF. No offence to the above guys, but when I read your posts I sometimes get the urge to jab my eye balls with forks. To lesser extent, Gazelle. So much of it is wishwash.

Believe it or not , there are people here who are very interested in learning, people who have been here for years and years, who have given their time and knowledge and all they asking is for you, the gannist, to be open with them. Surely you owe it to them, given you are currently enjoying the benefits of this free service call ASF.

All that seems to be happneing however, is the proliferation of frustration, angst and tention amongst those genuinely interested in Gann. And I cant but notice that you guys are doing a great disservice to Gann's work by tarnishing a body of work that I am sure has many many benefits.

Can someone please put this to thread to bed with some intelligent analsyis, charts , explanations, so we can all move on with our lives and most importantly, so I can move on with mine. I log on every fricking night for about 15 mins only to scroll through excuses and chartless replies. What a waste of my life (so to is this 30 mins).

To the Gannists (or at least to those Gannists unwilling to post the desired information), there is something else I have noticed from my short time here on ASF. And that is that you will gain alot more respect in putting your 'chop on the block' and happen to be wrong, than putting up nothing at all. Ie. If you put up some analysis, charts, some likely future trades and you are subsequently wrong then you will earn respect from others (chop on the block).

Some traders are wrong 50% of the time and still very profitable, some are wrong 70% of the time and still very profitable. Some are right 60% of the time and lose money hand over fist. Being right in the trading world does not carry anywhere near as much weight as it does outside the trading world, so why be afraid of poistig and being wrong?? Many have been wrong but still continue to post, good on them, I and many others have tremendous respect for those posters.

And we are not going to judge the merit of Gann over 3 trades, just like one wouldnt judge the merit of a potential trading system over 3 trades (sample size greater than say 30, and then you start to get an idea of what are systems is like. It would be no different to posting a gann example).

I'd say if you post one chart, one trade, with 'some' explanation, you will gain a great anount of respect from many. Some of course will continue to disrespect your strategies, they will always exist - who cares?! From my perspective you will gain my respect if you (the gannist) post an informative trade, a set up, whatever. At least that way you are informing others , educating others, creating awareness, which is what this forum is all about IMO. (If anyone is on this forum and this isnt their porpose, then I have no idea what they are doing on here).

Damn, if I wasnt a 6 month trading rookie, I would love to post something myself. Simply for the purpose of informing others. What a great opportunity to 'step up to the plate' this could be for someone. (I obvioulsy cant show what I do know at this stage in my career as there is a good chance I will put off a host of budding traders entirely, singlehandedly).

Can someone just post a nice chart with analysis. Damn, this thread is beginning to sound like a broken record.

Happy Days

Warmest Regards

Have a great day and all the breast
ST


----------



## sails

gazelle said:


> ...Sails . 45 90 days and 10 years into that date . these were some of the reasons I was looking at the possibility of a top into this date . when dealing with long term fixed cycles you have to make considerations for leap years . once long term and intermediate time cycles move into proportionate alignment you can look for evidence of a change in trend . This must be confirmed by other factors and always set your stops and predetermine profit targets before initiating a trade .




Thanks again - I understand some basic concepts of the 45 and 90 days.  I   had a look to see what happened 10 years ago and find there was a top on the 23rd April, 1999.  It sounds like you had other factors also honing in around that date further confirming a possible change in trend.  Have you found the square of nine useful?

Actually, I think your post above explains how some of the seemingly mysterious Gann techniques are more about finding a potential turning points and are not initially about trading.  Then, possibly conventional methods are applied for trading that potential set up begins to confirm itself.  Does that make sense?


----------



## Naked shorts

Well said ST


----------



## Trader Paul

Sicilian Trader said:


> Trader Paul, lets say someone asks you out of genuine interest the following:
> ASF Member : _"Trader Paul, if there is a stong probability, based on your analysis, of x happenning on a particular date (ie. a very positive cycle for August), how do you trade it TP?_
> 
> Can someone just post a nice chart with analysis. Damn, this thread is beginning to sound like a broken record.
> 
> Warmest Regards
> 
> ST






Hi ST (and anybody else, who can hold an intelligent conversation),

Maybe you should just go over to the other Gann thread, where we
discussed some of Gann's astroanalysis on COH ... over the past couple
of weeks ..... and just updated it this morning .....

..... some very simple stuff, that everybody can understand,
complete with the chart that you requested as well, ST ... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Sicilian Trader

Trader Paul said:


> Hi ST (and anybody else, who can hold an intelligent conversation),
> 
> Maybe you should just go over to the other Gann thread, where we
> discussed some of Gann's astroanalysis on COH ... over the past couple
> of weeks ..... and just updated it this morning .....
> 
> ..... some very simple stuff, that everybody can understand,
> complete with the chart that you requested as well, ST ...
> 
> have a great day
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====




Hi TP

thanks for the prompt reply, 

i just had a another look at that thread you referred to and noticed your attachments. Had a look at all them (on a side note you might want to look into attaching it as an image so that when people read your posts , then can immediately look at the chart. As opposed to going back and forth in between the chart and post windows. Its small, but could make a difference -- not a criticism, just a suggestion).

Anyway, of the 12 or so attachements / charts you have posted over the couple of years, the only ones of interest, the only ones that the likes of tech are annoyingly asking someone like you to post, are attached below.

I think if we had a chart, along these lines, with explanantions and accompanied with your forecasts (low prob/high prob), then we will be in business. (btw, I mean that metaphorically, i dont mean I will give you $6,000 to see some charts )

So how about it? You clearly have knowledge on this subject TP, probably more so than many others have, so lets all learn together. Personally that is why I am here. Nothing more.

(note to Mods : if TP is going to put his chop on the block in this thread by partially enlightening us on Gann, then can you do your best in preventing any abuse (including mine), that is levelled to towards him)

Anyway, so of all the charts I saw, most were just candle sticks with 2 or 3 EMA's (not much gann stuff). Of the few 'gann type' charts, there were no 'Gann type' explanations. And of the posts that had 'gann type' forecasts, there were no accompanying 'gann type' charts.

The 2 charts below captured my attention.

TP, this is how I see it. And this is how I would play it if I was in your position, with your knowledge base.

The way I see it is that you have a real opportunity of posting some 'astuffstance' _(astro stuff with sudstance)_ using the exact same chart types below 

You could use a real example, something everyone can relate to, lets pick the XJO for example, as this is an index the majority of ASF posters are familiar with. The we can have a polite question and answer period. 

In this period of time I think you will acquire many new TP supporters. I will be one of them, even if you happen to be wrong on occasion. I will watch your postings with interest and start growing respect for your work.

I am very keen to learn about the application of Gann, as evident in my sacrificing of this Tuesday evening.

I appreciate there may not be a XJO set up necessarily, but surely there is a chance of providing astuffstance either now or in near future??

Looking forward to your thoughts.

Thanks


----------



## gazelle

Sails : These are fixed cycles that are based upon the divisions of the Gann emblem . 45 90 180 270 and 360 . These represent the division of the four seasons on the square of nine . March 21st is 0 deg or 0 deg Aries  June 21st is 90 deg on the wheel or or 0 deg Cancer and so on . As outlined in How to profit in Commodities Gann placed alot of importance on the fixed cycles such as 45 days from a significant low and 90 days from a significant high . These cycles also extend their application out to weekly and monthly timeframes but like any form of analysis they should be confirmed by other factors .
Fixed cycles and Anniversary dates are an important aspect of Ganns work and when a grouping of certain dates lines up in a narrow timing window lets say 1 - 2 days we can look at the possibility of a change of trend . The pattern of the trend and how it has moved into the nominated date is also a very important piece of the puzzle when determing how you will move into a position . Trends have certain characteristics like speed and angle of ascent or decent which is one of the primary reasons Gann developed the 45 and 90 deg angles as a measuring gauge to identify the speed and magnitude of the underlying trend in play . Certain stocks might have the tendency to exhaust into a high with a number of range expansion bars moving up to complete a high whilst others might have a tendency to creep into a high . These techniques and understanding the particular phases of trend development constitute a key aspect in any succesful trading plan and Bill Mclarenn covers this material extensively in his video set . In response to your question : Calculating  future turning points where I expect a change to take place is very important as it provides me with a timing and directional mechanishm to either enter or exit a trade after all entry and exit is about trying to time the market and manage your positions in the best manner you are able . The Square of Nine is a Plannetary Calculator . it is also the Circle of 24 . This is discussed in the Square of Nine thread .

Regards Gazelle


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trader Paul said:


> So you admit, that your attacks on me were based on gossip then, th ... ???



Yep. fair enough. I have no proof of my VERY high suspicion that you don't trade. My info is in part from a PM I received from a fellow ASFer. 

My apology will by stuck on my BLOG and on my ASF signature for a month AND come with $500 dollar to Joe when you post a statement showing 20 trades taken say the last 6 months from the crud you have pimped on here. Surely with all your trading calls it wouldn't be hard to match them to a few trades recently 



seekandfind said:


> OK, straight to the point. A CHALLENGE. LETS see if there is real value in GANN, and lets make believers of the NON believers. This will be fun!!!!
> 
> Starting January 1st 2009 thru December 31st 2009 let us all make a record of our chosen trading account, with starting balance and closing balance. At the end of the year those that choose to continue to argue about the merits of this approach will be given a chance to show if they are real traders. We will get an independent auditor and accountant to review the trading statements. Posting these on a public forum is understandably an issue. Anyone considered the taxation implications!!!!!
> 
> Those that are skeptical of GANN, choose your representative to represent you as your champion VERSUS ME. I will represent GANN. At the end of the year if my trading account shows a greater return, then I pay nothing for the costs in getting this challenge independently audited. Further to that lets put up a dollar wager of 10,000 USD to the winner!! The loser pays the winner 10,000 USD plus all costs associated with this challenge. We will get a solicitor to arrange setting up the contract, all legal and above board.
> 
> I think this will silence the critics once and for all. Warning any shallow and mindless responses to this will be obvious.




Well seekandfind has contacted me but reconsider his challenge to us shallow and mindless critics. Shame I was looking forward to not only kickin butt but also seeing someone actually trade Gann.  

Not to be!!

I have suggested that he post up some Gann trades and walk us through them. Free from attack, from me anyway, as long as they are fair trades that are clearly showing gann methods I will be happy. If he can back them up with statements in the future or past I will be rapped. As all other posters will be - I'm guessing. After all that's what we have always wanted. Someone showing how they TRADE Gann.

As yet none have


----------



## Trembling Hand

Oh I forgot to add that the reason Seekandfind decided to pull out of his own challenge is because



> There is NO doubt that a highly focused and successful day trader can generate returns at a much faster rate than a *position trader *




Which I obviously agree with


----------



## sails

Gazelle, many thanks for your detailed post and for your thoughts on McLaren's work.  I have bookmarked the Sq of 9 thread to go through it carefully again.  I know I read that thread as it was evolving, but I think I have too many jigsaw pieces missing and it didn't make a lot of sense at the time.


----------



## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

Just by way of example, here's some current results of trades entered 
in this month's trading comp, on another forum ..... including my
transactions completed, over the past couple of weeks ..... 

..... and there's no reason, why this cannot be done in real-time,
with real money ... !~!

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## Timmy

Just looking at some of the transactions in your portfolio.  
I’m probably not understanding something here Trader Paul, if you could clarify for me.  

You have on the 24th of April buys totalling 1,126,974 shares on CTP, 
total volume on that day appears to be only 822,200 though?

On the 27th sells of 1,126,974 
but total volume on that day appears to be only 874,600?

On the 27th total turnover in MLI was 1.22 million shares 
but you have transactions totalling more than 2.95 million shares?

ITC is even more out of kilter, on the 29th your transactions total over 5 million shares, 
but overall volume on that day appears to be only 200,000 shares?

From your post these are only paper trades, 
but these volumes could not have been transacted in reality, right?

Reason I ask is because you say:


Trader Paul said:


> ..... and there's no reason, why this cannot be done in real-time,
> with real money ... !~!



but the volume figures would be a reason why these trades couldn't be done with real money?


----------



## Trader Paul

Timmy said:


> From your post these are only paper trades,
> but these volumes could not have been transacted in reality, right?




 

.... yes, that's correct Timmy ..... 

For the purpose of the comp, we could trade any volume, up to the
total value of cash, that we had available.

However, disregarding the volume, those stocks could still have been  
traded at that time, successfully.

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## Trader Paul

Timmy said:


> Just looking at some of the transactions in your portfolio.
> I’m probably not understanding something here Trader Paul, if you could clarify for me.
> 
> but the volume figures would be a reason why these trades couldn't be done with real money?






Hi Timmy,

..... and these trades may well have been done with real money, 
at that time ..... just because a limited number were actually traded,
does not mean, that there were not more available to trade, at that time.

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## MichaelD

Timmy said:


> ITC is even more out of kilter, on the 29th your transactions total over 5 million shares,
> but overall volume on that day appears to be only 200,000 shares?






Trader Paul said:


> However, disregarding the volume, those stocks could still have been
> traded at that time, successfully.






Trader Paul said:


> ..... just because a limited number were actually traded,
> does not mean, that there were not more available to trade, at that time.




Can't help but butt in here into this highly entertaining ego-charged thread.

I don't know who does or doesn't trade. I don't know who's profitable. I don't really care which methods do and don't work.

All I can say is that it is blatantly obvious from even a cursory glance at the current market depth for ITC that there is absolutely no way the proposed trade of BUY 5,046,282 ITC @ 0.031 could have occurred yesterday, 29-Apr-2009, if trading real money.

Anyone who actually trades and has even a rudimentary understanding of DOM can see that from the current DOM and course of sales. There were no trades at 0.031 on this day. There are no sellers at 0.031. The lowest the sellers were prepared to go on this day was 0.032, and only 200,000 were traded at this level, at 11:30am.

Sure you could have put your BUY order in for your 5 million ITC at 0.031 at around midday, but it wouldn't have been filled in real life, unlike in this clearly flawed competition.

If you are that naive to suggest that such a trade was even remotely likely to get executed as proposed, then there is a very large credibility gap to overcome.

Following on from that, any trade outcome that may be claimed from this paper trade is just as problematic.


----------



## MichaelD

(Out of editing time and wanted to add an addendum).

There's a very good reason real traders avoid illiquid shares like the ones you've paper traded.

Ignoring the realities of trading them can lead to fantastic results on paper...but that's as far as it goes. Try to really trade them...fuggetaboutit. No volume = no meaningful $ to be made. You can't make money when a share only trades $6,400 worth per day.

They're good for fudging results in paper trading competitions, though.


----------



## Sean K

Cripes.


----------



## nunthewiser

LOL has no further comments in this thread as point has been proven


fairytales and gobbledygook


unreal

at least if i used this method to trade , my dream of buying BDM yesterday at .01 and selling at 10.00 would have come true


----------



## tech/a

A gift.

"Delusions of grandeur make me feel a lot better about myself."


----------



## Trader Paul

Ha, ha, ha ...... nice works, guys ..... 

happy days

 paul



=====


----------



## beamstas

Of course your going to make profit
If you buy shares below the lowest price they actually traded at

This thread is a fairytale
Nothing less


----------



## Trembling Hand

Thanks Paul for that. 

I have posted my apology in fairyland right next to your trades and unfortunately for Joe sent him $500 of fairy money so he can buy some fairyland listed BHP. 

Have a nive day


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> I have posted my apology in fairyland right next to your trades and unfortunately for Joe sent him $500 of fairy money so he can buy some fairyland listed BHP.




LOLOL!! GOLD!!!


----------



## Trader Paul

Trembling Hand said:


> Thanks Paul for that.
> 
> I have posted my apology in fairyland right next to your trades and unfortunately for Joe sent him $500 of fairy money so he can buy some fairyland listed BHP.
> 
> Have a nive day






.....  generous of you, th ..... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> *This thread is a fairytale*
> Nothing less





"Gannilocks and the three bear markets" ??? sheep::sheep::sheep:  (one bear went Missing In Action)

----maybe "Gann with the Wind" 


All jokes aside, theres probably a lot of breakout traders out there who fit the Gann mold  --- disregarding all the esoteric nonsense, some pretty basic concepts amongst it   --- 

(from the ASX website)

Entry Points

If the trend is up, which is signalled by consecutive swing points progressively higher, a buy signal is generated when a new high is made following a swing bottom.

Conversely a sell signal is generated during a down trend when a new low is made immediately after a swing top. New sell signals are generated every time we make a reversal followed by a new low. The sell signal is generated as we make the new low.


Sounds familiar doesnt it !! ---- now hands up all the closet Gann's:headshake   lol ---


----------



## Sicilian Trader

Trader Paul said:


> .....  generous of you, th .....
> 
> have a great day
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====






.... Trader Paul, you are truly special ....

What a complete waste of time this thread has proven to be. TP, you have proven that once and for all.

What Michael D suggested about real DOM and paper trading was so obvious to so many, and should have been an obvious pick up to yourself as well. But what it has done, is strip you of any real credibility that you had an opportunity to create on this thread. 

I have concluded that you do not trade real money TP. You paper trade and enjoy studying astrology, that's it. You have a bunch of investment properties and you simply live off the rent. 

Probably an inheritance or you got lucky a while back and just rode that Real Esate wave, like so many unskilled people can -- and still profit handsomely. Which means that you are reasonably well buffered whatever you do. Which has nothing at all to do with real trading ability in real life. Something you cannot lay claim to. Only you have proven that.

I have a new trading term I would like submit to Investopdia. It relates to when one starting out paper trading and he comes across a great buy but in reality - due to a lack of liquidity -  its nontradeable.

The term will be _nontraderpaul_  ...... 

Have a great day !~!

ST



========


----------



## Trader Paul

Sicilian Trader said:


> Trader Paul, you are truly special...






Hi ST,

..... that sucked them in and got the hornets buzzing, again ... lol ... 

have a great day

   paul



=====


----------



## MichaelD

Trader Paul said:


> ..... that sucked them in and got the hornets buzzing, again ... lol ...






Trader Paul said:


> However, disregarding the volume, those stocks could still have been
> traded at that time, successfully.




It's puzzling. I don't have a problem with someone demonstrating a methodology via paper trading if you don't want to show your real trades.

I'd likely do the same.

The elephant in the room, however, is not the paper trades per se, it's the complete ignorance of how the real market actually works, as demonstrated by the claim that any of these paper trades could have been successfully executed in the underlying markets.

Anyhow, I'm off - the real market has been extraordinarily busy this week and beckons for attention.


----------



## motorway

Gann can almost be anything

Gann seems to have used nearly everything

What is Gann that makes it Gann ?

I would argue the use of Time for prediction..





> "TIME is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient TIME has expired does any big move start up or down. When TIME is up, price movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down."
> W.D Gann




When Time is up !
Of course , when the time is up ----It is just not saying much..
When something's time is up ----naturally..
Bull turns to bear / bear turns to bull
Births & deaths.


But that leaves  a lot of other material

How much is original 
and how much is Gann can be argued.



> Now, with this exercise of following the system on the chart, you can probably already recognize some of
> the advantages and disadvantages of the system. One disadvantage is obvious; if the market is in a
> non-trending mode or a sideways chop as it is often called, your equity will continually be eroded.
> 
> You may suffer a series of aggravating losses being constantly whipsawed until the market finds a direction.
> But you will never suffer a devastating loss.




Curtis Arnold on this  "Gann" method

The  problem with using Static Time  

But even so
He finds  



> The main advantage to the system is you will never miss a major move. You may miss the first few days
> and you may overstay the move and give back some of the last part, but you will catch the major portion
> of it.
> Even more importantly, you will not be caught on the wrong side of a major move which can often
> be fatal.





Where have I seen these 45 degree angles before 




> We also ran this system on the T-bills. We'll now examine the results of this system.
> The number of profitable trades was 9.
> The number of losing trades was 10.
> The maximum dollar gain on any one profitable trade was $5090.
> The maximum dollar loss on a losing trade was $1660.
> The maximum drawdown was $2,695 or 27%.
> The profits after commissions totaled $19,505.00.
> The losses after commissions totaled $8,100.00.
> Resulting in a net after commissions of $11,405.00.
> The required margin was $2,500.
> Therefore we required an initial investment of $10,000.
> The system was in the market 1.5 years.
> Giving us an annualized return of 76%.





http://www.supertradersystem.com/library/CurtisArnold-Gann(Stocks_Commodities).pdf


motorway


----------



## sails

OK - have posted a short term chart showing *simple* calendar days as an example of measuring time in it's absolute basics.  The repetitions in time are easy to see in this chart and like other TA, they don't always work out perfectly.  It is based on Gann's basic teaching to count tops to tops, lows to lows in addition to ranges which is all found in his book "How to make profits in commodities".

I am not a Gann expert, but have found simple calendar day counts quite useful if it fits in with other TA.  For the record, I haven't taken any trades on the basis of the chart below as have only recently drawn them up.  This is simply to illustrate to those who are genuinely interested as a very simple method of analysing time.

How to trade it is an individual thing.  I could have just as easily shown a chart with fib levels - or a MOB in A/Get.  I see time analysis as no more than using any other indicator and the trader/investor will use other TA to prove or disprove a potential date or trade entry.  Here is a link to how someone experienced in Gann trades the Gann swing charts.  http://www.cycletrader.com.au/gann1.htm

As you can see in the chart below, the XJO is currently running on 21 days.  That probably will stop now that I've posted it... 

Not interested in arguments, not promoting it as a holy grail or as a must have in trading - take it or leave it as you will.  Also, I am not offering any forecasts based on this chart as I find it is better to wait for a possible, useful date to come along and then see if it's stacking up for a trade just as one doesn't forecast that price will definitely hit a fib level.  If it hits, then one looks to see if other indicators are stacking up.  Same for me using time and I have found forecasting simply hasn't worked for me.  I have found it brings the need to be "right" which envokes all the wrong emotions into trading.

Oh, and the dates are taken from the SPI, but I don't have enough SPI data, so have used the XJO to show the idea.  I have put the day counts close to the relevant ranges.  However, this last range up from the March lows I have shown how that is subdividing and is, at present, running perfectly from that last 42 day B-B.

I am sure there are much more advanced Gann traders out there using much more than basic calendar day analysis - but in the absence of any other information showing time, except for that which Magdoran posted in detail some time ago, I have posted this very basic chart.


----------



## beamstas

sails said:


> OK - have posted a short term chart showing *simple* calendar days as an example of measuring time in it's absolute basics.  The repetitions in time are easy to see in this chart and like other TA, they don't always work out perfectly.  It is based on Gann's basic teaching to count tops to tops, lows to lows in addition to ranges which is all found in his book "How to make profits in commodities".
> 
> I am not a Gann expert, but have found simple calendar day counts quite useful if it fits in with other TA.  For the record, I haven't taken any trades on the basis of the chart below as have only recently drawn them up.  This is simply to illustrate to those who are genuinely interested as a very simple method of analysing time.
> 
> How to trade it is an individual thing.  I could have just as easily shown a chart with fib levels - or a MOB in A/Get.  I see time analysis as no more than using any other indicator and the trader/investor will use other TA to prove or disprove a potential date or trade entry.  Here is a link to how someone experienced in Gann trades the Gann swing charts.  http://www.cycletrader.com.au/gann1.htm
> 
> As you can see in the chart below, the XJO is currently running on 21 days.  That probably will stop now that I've posted it...
> 
> Not interested in arguments, not promoting it as a holy grail or as a must have in trading - take it or leave it as you will.  Also, I am not offering any forecasts based on this chart as I find it is better to wait for a possible, useful date to come along and then see if it's stacking up for a trade just as one doesn't forecast that price will definitely hit a fib level.  If it hits, then one looks to see if other indicators are stacking up.  Same for me using time and I have found forecasting simply hasn't worked for me.  I have found it brings the need to be "right" which envokes all the wrong emotions into trading.
> 
> Oh, and the dates are taken from the SPI, but I don't have enough SPI data, so have used the XJO to show the idea.  I have put the day counts close to the relevant ranges.  However, this last range up from the March lows I have shown how that is subdividing and is, at present, running perfectly from that last 42 day B-B.
> 
> I am sure there are much more advanced Gann traders out there using much more than basic calendar day analysis - but in the absence of any other information showing time, except for that which Magdoran posted in detail some time ago, I have posted this very basic chart.





Nice chart sails
Does this mean for a gann(er) you go long or short?
Do you expect another top 21 days from the last one or a low 21 days from the previous top? 
IE would you be going long or short after that second 21 day top

Thanks
Brad


----------



## tech/a

Sails.

Thanks.

But I'm with Brad here.
How now do you trade the chart going forward.
Entry/Exit/Trade Management?


----------



## sails

beamstas said:


> Nice chart sails
> Does this mean for a gann(er) you go long or short?
> Do you expect another top 21 days from the last one or a low 21 days from the previous top?
> IE would you be going long or short after that second 21 day top
> 
> Thanks
> Brad




lol Brad - you're asking me to forecast... 

I have no idea where price will be in the following 21 days or even if those 21 days will fade out, but it certainly will be a time to watch and see if we are near any useful support or resistance levels in addition to other TA confirming a potential reversal (short term?) at that time.  As with most other forms of TA, it's a case of prove, disprove.

Also, the chart is only a very short term chart for illustrative purposes.  I suspect most Ganner's would also be looking at much longer term charts in addition to lining up other squares, etc.  They probably don't even look at such short term charts - I really don't know.


----------



## sails

tech/a said:


> Sails.
> 
> Thanks.
> 
> But I'm with Brad here.
> How now do you trade the chart going forward.
> Entry/Exit/Trade Management?




Tech, the same sort of entry techniques you would use with A/get's MOB target which I believe is made up of time and price. Or just because the market reaches a fib level target, doesn't mean it will reverse the market.  Same with time, it needs to be proved or disproved.  Price being at an important level in addition to time coming in needs closer attention.   Then further confirmation works well with VSA, candlesticks, oscillators, whatever you choose, etc, etc.  

If an important price level comes in on a possible date (as it did on the 17th April shown on the chart), it's getting pretty close.  But I think further confirmation would be a good thing.  Otherwise, one can wait for a lower high, higher low and not actually try to trade the turn.  Will post up an intra-day chart of the 17th April to show possible entries.  Will follow up on the chart too - see what happens when those 21 days come around.

I have never found time to be a stand alone indicator - but then I've only illustrated the kindergarten of time analysis.


----------



## sails

Here's a 15 min chart of 24 hour SPI showing what happened on the 17th April when price hit an important level on that 42 calendar day repeat.  The SPI then dropped just over 200 points over the next five calendar days.

One could either enter with a tight stop as shown on the chart OR take the entry as the previous swing low is passed.  I think the latter is more Gann theory, but then a fair bit of the run is missed that way.

Guys, does that help?  I honestly don't know how to make it any clearer...


----------



## tech/a

Sails.

Thanks for your time and effort.
I do understand that there are many many points both in time and price let alone astrology which can be plotted using Gann on any chart.
A fully marked up Gann chart on a stock is really a work of art.

Of course Gannists place greater credence on confluence of points alerted on a chart and have an expectation that if a certain point is honoured that other like levels or points in price and time will also be honoured.

The point by all those here is that practical application IF DEMONSTRATED would show that any one or group of these points would in a practical trading sense used as entry or exit would prove no more effective than conventional analysis.

The smoke and mirrors is the illusion the Gann Educators create that Gann did have the holy grail and its so complex that it will cost you (Ive seen $25000 +) to be let into this secret sect! (So to speak).

Taking any Gann analysis *FORWARD* as can be seen in the 21 day cycle chart there is only a loose strategy.
Yogi has mentioned on his COH analysis various levels which will either be proven or disproven.
Now I dont have a problem with that but if the bullishness of his analysis doesnt come off where will he exit if at all. But from what I can read his trade is long until the end of his periods analysed.

Thanks for your effort Sails./Yogi


----------



## sails

tech/a said:


> ...The smoke and mirrors is the illusion the Gann Educators create that Gann did have the holy grail and its so complex that it will cost you (Ive seen $25000 +) to be let into this secret sect! (So to speak).




Tech, definitely not a holy grail, IMO.  Even Gann knew it wasn't a holy grail.  He is big on using stops in his books and says to accept the fact if you are wrong.

High priced option courses have been known to be marketed in such a way that it looks like you can make money if the market goes up, if it goes down or if it goes sideways.  But you have to learn their "secrets".  In reality, different strategies are needed for different market conditions.  If the wrong option strategy is applied, money will be lost.  This is not spelled out in the marketing process, leading people to believe in fairies.  

And so, absolutely agree with you on the smoke and mirrors with educators.  It's one of the things I have always liked about McLaren.  I think he has been using this stuff for about 35 years.  He doesn't run big ads, doesn't promise the earth, etc.



> Taking any Gann analysis *FORWARD* as can be seen in the 21 day cycle chart there is only a loose strategy.




I am thinking of starting a new thread and following up in real time.  Will see how time (my time!) goes.  Also, this is the very basics of time analysis and some of it is what I have worked out for myself due to minimal Gann education. It is not a holy grail.  I have no idea how Yogi does his Astro analysis. I think there have been many different streams of Gann theory developed over the years.



> Now I dont have a problem with that but if the bullishness of his analysis doesnt come off where will he exit if at all. But from what I can read his trade is long until the end of his periods analysed.




Obviously Yogi will have to answer that one.  My guess they simply work with stops, trailing stops, etc.  Just basic stuff for entry and trade management. Different traders use different methods that suit their trading styles/personalities.   I don't think there is anything at all mysterious about the entry/exit and trade management techniques.  Could be the reason why they are not discussed.


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## beamstas

Thanks Sails
So basically you can't trade gann by itself

You have to find another method of trading, but use gann as a way of "forcasting" the end of a trend or price movement

For example if i said i believe the SPI will go up in the short term, i could use gann and conclude that in 21 days i should start tightening my stops

Thanks again sails

Cheers
Brad


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## sails

beamstas said:


> Thanks Sails
> So basically you can't trade gann by itself
> 
> You have to find another method of trading, but use gann as a way of "*adding additional probability to*" the end of a trend or price movement
> 
> For example if i said i believe the SPI will go up in the short term, i could use gann and conclude that in 21 days i should start tightening my stops
> 
> Thanks again sails
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




Brad, I have changed the word "forecasting" in your original post to "adding additional probability" in your post above as it more accurately describes what I am on about.  Just trying to take some of the "mystery" out of time analysis.

Lets not confuse simple time analysis with Gann.  Simple calendar day charts are far from a stand alone system - which I have repeatedly stated.  If you are bullish, then you would be watching for other bullish signals as you would using any system.

Gann techniques do incorporate the use of time, including some very advanced time techniques, in addition to many other factors.  He taught the use of volume, support and resistance, accumulation and distribution.  Commonly used analysis.  Gann has whole volumes he has written on his work. All I have done is to show a little of how time charts can work.  

Some advanced Gann technicians may well be able to forecast.  That's not my area.  I'm not a Gann expert and never did complete the course I started due to it being so over priced.  So, all I can do is show the simple stuff.  At least it is some sort of a primer in time analysis and how it can work together with other indicators for anyone interested.

Do I really have to keep repeating the same things over and over?  I'm beginning to think this is not a good idea..

Anyway, how about showing some charts of how you trade, Brad?  Tech has done it many times...


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## beamstas

sails said:


> Brad, I have changed the word "forecasting" in your original post to "adding additional probability" in your post above as it more accurately describes what I am on about.  Just trying to take some of the "mystery" out of time analysis.
> 
> Lets not confuse simple time analysis with Gann.  Simple calendar day charts are far from a stand alone system - which I have repeatedly stated.  If you are bullish, then you would be watching for other bullish signals as you would using any system.
> 
> Gann techniques do incorporate the use of time, including some very advanced time techniques, in addition to many other factors.  He taught the use of volume, support and resistance, accumulation and distribution.  Commonly used analysis.  Gann has whole volumes he has written on his work. All I have done is to show a little of how time charts can work.
> 
> Some advanced Gann technicians may well be able to forecast.  That's not my area.  I'm not a Gann expert and never did complete the course I started due to it being so over priced.  So, all I can do is show the simple stuff.  At least it is some sort of a primer in time analysis and how it can work together with other indicators for anyone interested.
> 
> Do I really have to keep repeating the same things over and over?  I'm beginning to think this is not a good idea..
> 
> Anyway, how about showing some charts of how you trade, Brad?  Tech has done it many times...




Thanks, 
Now i understand.
Still a bit over my head
Hard to grasp

I will gladly post charts
Where do you want them?


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## sails

beamstas said:


> Thanks,
> Now i understand.
> Still a bit over my head
> Hard to grasp
> 
> I will gladly post charts
> Where do you want them?




That's a relief - was getting a bit frustrated typing the same stuff.  Let's see if there are any other confirming factors when that next 21 days is due.

Time analysis seems to be quite misunderstood, so my thought was to isolate it and at least show the very basics.

lol Brad - post your charts where ever you like...


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## beamstas

sails said:


> That's a relief - was getting a bit frustrated typing the same stuff.  Let's see if there are any other confirming factors when that next 21 days is due.
> 
> Time analysis seems to be quite misunderstood, so my thought was to isolate it and at least show the very basics.
> 
> lol Brad - post your charts where ever you like...




Ok well i don't normally post them on ASF
Would you prefer i pm you a few

Cheers
Brad


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## sails

beamstas said:


> Ok well i don't normally post them on ASF
> Would you prefer i pm you a few
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




No need to PM.  Why not on ASF though?  You have been fairly vocal about getting others to post their charts publically...


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## beamstas

sails said:


> No need to PM.  Why not on ASF though?  You have been fairly vocal about getting others to post their charts publically...




Where should i post them then
Don't want to start a new topic


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## tech/a

Thanks Sails.

I see it similar to Elliott in that a count or a cycle/pressure point/square/confluence of any or all will give a point of analysis.
This can be traded alone particularly confluence.
I would think that other analysis would be very important.
S&R/Counts/Volume/Divergence/Fundamentals could have an impact on the result of all points thrown up.

Do you have the ability to give other Gann Analysis to the chart to see if confluence can be found?


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## motorway

imo

Such time cycles 

are the result of cobweb dynamics

( The hog cycle  do a google search )

They result from the use of time based indicators

eg think of all the RSI MACD ROC set at default settings

Think of the 30 or 200 period mov average

A population of interest using such time based indicators

will set up ( interacting with others that do not use them eg FA followers )

dampening and expanding patterns 

The problem is they are ephemeral
they dissolve when people try to profit from them

They are what create all the various Wedge and triangular patterns
And it is when they break down that is the Point of interest

So time cycles are created by a critical mass using time based indications

even just so many using daily charts or weekly

The patterns last as long as they do
and then new patterns emerge

14 day RSI works until it works too well etc

Chasing ones own tail


motorway


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## sails

tech/a said:


> Thanks Sails.
> 
> I see it similar to Elliott in that a count or a cycle/pressure point/square/confluence of any or all will give a point of analysis.
> This can be traded alone particularly confluence.
> I would think that other analysis would be very important.
> S&R/Counts/Volume/Divergence/Fundamentals could have an impact on the result of all points thrown up.
> 
> Do you have the ability to give other Gann Analysis to the chart to see if confluence can be found?




Yes, confluence is definitely part of time analysis.  Even with calendar days, it is possible to get confluence where smaller time cycles merge in with higher time cycles.

Also, there are usually mathematical relationships with the time charts, similar to those found in price charts and can be seen in the chart I posted.  It may be a third or half of a previous move that fits in nicely with something else.  But, in my experience, price must also be at an important level for a reversal to take place.  Sometimes confluence of time may complete a reaction or the market may simply pause if the trend is strong.

Yes, there are more complex methods that can produce further confluence in time - most of which I didn't learn.  Maybe someone else is willing to fill in the gaps.  However, what I did learn gave so many potential turning places, I ended up mainly using calendar days (also weeks and months) for my own trading.  Although I usually just sketch them out with pencil and don't try to mark them up on the computer as I did on the one I posted.


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## sails

21 days is up tomorrow (8th May), so it's time to be on alert and watching for signs of a change in trend.  It can be a day or two either side of the projected date, so I have been watching it closely today. This is when other factors come into play as confirmation - a case of prove / disprove.  It's just another indicator - at least that's how I have used it.  Have posted the updated chart below.  There are some interesting smaller time cycles inside these last 21 days.  Will try to give more info tomorrow.  Also, I need to get the larger time cycles (eg weekly, monthly) worked out as that also helps narrow things down a bit.


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## tech/a

So Sails.

If you were long I guess you could only be reasonably confident if you saw the 2nd cycle come off.
OR would someone trading Gann Trade after the First 21 days was found to be a top.

At what time on the chart would the Cycle be confirmed.
I suspect after the 2nd 21 days appears.

This is where I have trouble with the *application.*

Lets say we find the 2nd 21 day cycle would you go short?

If not at what time would you have gone long and WHY?
We now then have a 3rd 21 day cycle.
Does the trader go short?
And on what confirmation if any?

Thanks for the effort.
You leave the others for dead.
Novice?
From what Ive seen your way ahead on ability to explain.


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## Trembling Hand

seekandfind said:


> Very interesting how this thread developes as time goes on. One e-mail sparks a flurry, and then sometimes nothing for days, weeks, and then one e-mail can suddenly spark another flurry. Any familiarity with trading?
> 
> 
> 
> OK, straight to the point. A CHALLENGE. LETS see if there is real value in GANN, and lets make believers of the NON believers. This will be fun!!!!
> 
> Starting January 1st 2009 thru December 31st 2009 let us all make a record of our chosen trading account, with starting balance and closing balance. At the end of the year those that choose to continue to argue about the merits of this approach will be given a chance to show if they are real traders. We will get an independent auditor and accountant to review the trading statements. Posting these on a public forum is understandably an issue. Anyone considered the taxation implications!!!!!
> 
> Those that are skeptical of GANN, choose your representative to represent you as your champion VERSUS ME. I will represent GANN. At the end of the year if my trading account shows a greater return, then I pay nothing for the costs in getting this challenge independently audited. Further to that lets put up a dollar wager of 10,000 USD to the winner!! The loser pays the winner 10,000 USD plus all costs associated with this challenge. We will get a solicitor to arrange setting up the contract, all legal and above board.
> 
> OK non believers who wants to step up to the plate and challenge me?
> If you want to revise these conditions feel free to suggest an alternative.
> 
> I think this will silence the critics once and for all. Warning any shallow and mindless responses to this will be obvious.
> 
> I look forward to your responses!!!



Wonder where our mystical and full of BS Gann blow-in has gone  

Two post of huge claims and challenges and then not a friggin thing to back it up.

Typical. Claims, bluff, Challenges, BS, Bullying, Complexity but in the end complete and utter rubbish.

Not a thing of substance. Pathetic :fu::arsch:


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## beamstas

sails said:


> Anyway, how about showing some charts of how you trade, Brad?  Tech has done it many times...




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15356


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## sails

Tech, I will try to get some more charts up over the weekend which will hopefully answer your questions.  They take a while to mark up and prepare as I know you understand.  Please remember, it is very elementary Gann stuff that I use. 



beamstas said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15356




Brad - yes well done!  Good thread and it has a lot of interest!


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## Bobby

Trembling Hand said:


> Wonder where our mystical and full of BS Gann blow-in has gone
> 
> Two post of huge claims and challenges and then not a friggin thing to back it up.
> 
> Typical. Claims, bluff, Challenges, BS, Bullying, Complexity but in the end complete and utter rubbish.
> 
> Not a thing of substance. Pathetic :fu::arsch:




Might have kept up the bluff & BS longer  if you did'nt step up to the mark


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## sails

So far, nothing has given me enough reason to go short today.  There is the factor of time (21 day cycle repeat) and price has firmly hit Aget's MOB, also Frank's monthly levels and a lower high on daily charts.  There has been some range equality (will post info up on that in charts on the w/end).  Otherwise, it's been pretty choppy today and there is no clear entry.  IF it's going down, perhaps there will be some sideways first - I don't know .  So, for the record, I have not traded today on the basis of time alone.  There won't be any hindsight trades - lol.  If I have missed something, it will become clearer as time moves forward.


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## sammy84

Thanks for taking the time and effort to do this sails. Although I am skeptical of GANN I will be watching this thread closely now to see how you apply it. Keep it up!


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