# Anyone notice all the recent post ann Break DOWNS?



## juw177 (28 November 2007)

Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites

MHL
JMS
RAU
KAL
CTS

Lesson here is dont trust people on the internet blindly.

Disclosure: I am down on mhl and jms and not happy that I missed the sell signals because of the "fundamentals" that people are bouncing around.


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## mayk (28 November 2007)

No need to be so arrogrant. Every one also said DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, don't they. Yes you should not even take your financial advisor seriously too!

Please be patient, with speculative stock , plus fundamental stocks are valuable mostly in the long run ( 2-5 year time), not in short term 1-3 months.....


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## professor_frink (28 November 2007)

juw177 said:


> Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites
> 
> MHL
> JMS
> ...




Maybe you should have come up with your own plan instead of following what people are doing on the net.


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## Wysiwyg (28 November 2007)

juw177 said:


> Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites
> 
> MHL
> JMS
> ...




Matey don`t feel that you`re alone here.I`ve been smashed more times than i can remember.Not through any internet people though.

I use critical thinking to make choices and repeat  + don`t think you are the only one.+


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## Porper (28 November 2007)

juw177 said:


> Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites
> 
> MHL
> JMS
> ...




I am sure a lot of posters, especially here on ASF are genuine in their posts.However people do get it wrong.

If you had a sell signal, always, always act on it.I have been there and it just puts a big hole in your account ignoring stops.

After a while you get to know the good posters from the rampers.I have only met 2 ASF members so I know they are genuine and trustworthy, otherwise we could all be whoever we like .


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## nioka (28 November 2007)

juw177 said:


> Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites
> 
> MHL
> JMS
> ...



 Add ADI and AUT. However all may not be lost with all the so called dogs. Remember the chance of great gains always gives you the chance of great losses. The bigger the potential gain the bigger the chance of a loss. 
 A good rule is always take some profit along the way. Try and recoup your outlay and free carry the rest. The next, or maybe the first, rule is never speculate with money you can't afford to lose and never speculate with borrowed funds.
 Some of these current losers will prosper in the future. You must decide which ones are worth the time and outlay. You only lose money when you sell. You lose value when you hold.
 Don't blame the forums. People only post opinions.


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## MS+Tradesim (28 November 2007)

The first step towards improving.....

Accept *complete* responsibility for your own actions.

It really doesn't matter what anyone else thinks. You are either trading your own plan or being swept along by emotions...but no-one apart from you is responsible for your results.


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## juw177 (28 November 2007)

I started this thread and perhaps you people posting "do your own research" "you are responsible for your plan" are missing the point here. Back off, we know, no need to rub it in.

Research can make you subjective. Research also includes reading posts on the internet, and as a chartist, I definitely let some of it cloud my technical judgement. It usually goes like this, fundamentals that I learn from such research are accurate, but as usual, take some time to be realised. So what to do in the case of a breakdown?

But more so, it was just a rant to point out how our internet forum picks have fared lately and that no amount of research can foresee how the market takes certain announcements... each breakdown on the list came after a significant announcement.


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## prawn_86 (28 November 2007)

That is why you must always have a plan/timeframe in mind.

If you were holding short term, only till the ann then you prob should have abiled when it hit your stop.

If your holding long term because you beleive in the co's long term potential being recognised at some stage then who really cares what happens between now and 6 months or X amount of time.


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## Gangis (28 November 2007)

It goes both ways, you mention MHL - if it was not for these forums i would never have looked into MHL. Got in at 3.1c using research done by posters and what I could find on their website and the net.

Sold half at 6.2 which allowed by to take out my original capital and now I have a free holding in the company which I believe will bounce back in the long term.

No one forced me to buy and no one mentioned to sell. Entry and exit are up to you plus your judgement, stick with instincts.

So many stocks out there its difficult to flick through and find them, forums are a great starting point as they open your eyes to stocks that you may not have known about.


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## IFocus (28 November 2007)

juw177 if you are unhappy with the current out come what will you do differently next time?

Focus


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## juw177 (28 November 2007)

IFocus said:


> juw177 if you are unhappy with the current out come what will you do differently next time?
> 
> Focus




Short answer...
Set stop orders! By the time I saw the breakdown announcement (MHL and JMS) the stock was already down around 15%. Very hard to pull the trigger.

I still like reading about research others have done to alert me to stocks but I take my signals from price and volume so I should stick with my plan. That will make a less likely chance that I will be caught out like this again, but also give me more frequent losses when I get stopped out.


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## lazyfish (28 November 2007)

juw177 said:


> Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites
> 
> MHL
> JMS
> ...




I used to do the same, and have learnt from it. I guess you have to experience the frustration yourself to learn this very valuable lesson . Nowadays whenever I see 'hot' stocks appearing on all forums, I tend to just put them in my ignore list till things cool down. Always DYOR so you know what you are buying/selling and you can sleep in peace.


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## disarray (28 November 2007)

taking a loss is the most common way to learn the hard lessons in life, and its usually because we are emotional. shut that out of your trading and you'll be the better for it. if its any consolation lots of us are holding dogs.


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## DionM (28 November 2007)

juw177 said:


> Yes I am talking about all the forum favourites
> 
> MHL
> JMS
> ...




Why would you trust people on the internet anyway?

I look at the discussions on companies as a prompter for me to have a look myself.  If I think it is worth of an investment, then I jump in.

From your list ... I hold MHL at 3.2 from quite a while ago.  I didn't sell, but I didn't expect the retrace to current levels.  No-one to blame there except market forces.  Not much I can do about that.

I hold JMS too.  I thought it would stay up around ~30c, so that's where I bought.  It didn't.  Oh well, my thoughts and analysis were wrong.  So I'll just hold for a little while longer.

As far as the internet goes, threads on both put me onto them, and I did look at the discussion but it was certainly a case of DYOR.


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## Bull121 (28 November 2007)

JMS is slightly down due to a major shareholder selling out.

No one could have predicted that. I too bought at 31c thinking it would hold. 

However it didn't and now I am picking up more parcels at bargain prices as I believe this company has real potential.

MHL on the other hand is another kettle of fish, the director selling out wasnt a good sign when it was close to 100% up. 

I wouldn't be selling your JMS off for a loss thats for sure.


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## Spaghetti (29 November 2007)

I don't know why anyone would say KAL was a breakdown. Wouldn't that make people panic and sell possibly creating a breakdown? It seems as bad as ramping to me to be honest.

I am not sure about the others but JMS I know was just internet chatter from what i could see, nothing really happened to hold up the share price to begin with.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 November 2007)

Add ROY to that list,

ROY's drill results were amazing, 50m's @ 62%Fe, thats DSO and they're in a JV with GBG and the project is next door to GBG's main area so infrastructure ain't a problem,

So why the selloff?

Well I reckon juwi77 is right, there is a growing trend of companies get slammed and sold off on the ann's, its like a growing stag the ann mentality, even BLR today got slammed after upgrading their Uranium resource by 70% I think

I personally hold nearly $1.5m in JMS, CTS, CTSO, ROY, ROYOA and MHL, all of which have fallen 

So its a tough tough time for all in the spec end of the mkt,

But I've been around long enough to know that so long as the BULL stays intact (which I firmly believe it still is) then eventuall good stucks get re-rated


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## zt3000 (29 November 2007)

Man, being a momentum trader its been really really tough last month or so ... gone backwards majorly! It used to be "too easy" ... now i cant pick a direction for the life of me ... I mean the ROY announcement, thought that was going to go ballistic instead it self imploded ... KAL too ... pretty much everything ... strange strange phenomena ... then you get FDL which has seriosly got sweet FA and goes up 1000% ... frustrating to say the least!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 November 2007)

zt3000 said:


> then you get FDL which has seriosly got sweet FA and goes up 1000% ... frustrating to say the least!




Believe me I feel your pain, or I should say my position statement does, so I'll join you in some headbanging


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2007)

Personally im trying to move away from explorers, and shift my cash int already (just) producing or very near term (less than 3 months) producers, as this somewhat mitigates the risk of big swings explorers have, while still providing a nice upside potential.


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## Synergy (29 November 2007)

Good thread...

Theres far too little talk about negative experiences around here. I think a problem a lot of traders have is dealing with losses. I've noticed that the only really active threads are those about rising stocks. Once it turns and falls, the thread goes dead, even though many still hold. So theres a natural instinct to not talk about things that aren't doing so well.

My position Statement is also in intensive care. Mostly due to my own lack of experience. Thinking its ok to hold a falling stock because the market went down too.


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## gordon2007 (29 November 2007)

This could be slightly off topic. But read it wholly before you decide. 

I reckon this can bring back a post I created ages ago. "riding the ramp". I've discovered it's a very real trading strategy. Sure some people may think it as unethical, but there is many a dollar to be made by doing just that. With that said, in reading various different forums, I do find ASF to be the most legitimate. Meaning I don't see the blind ramping here. But let's face it, a ramp, with or without facts is still a ramp. Meaning you can back it up with all the data you want, but if you are alerting people to a particular share, it then becomes a very subjective ramp. To one it's an informative post, to another it's someone pushing their own cause and or agenda. 

Still though, one must thoroughly do their research. Just because YT, Prawn, Kennas, TechA may have a positive post doesn't mean you or I or anyone should blindly buy into that. Anyone who does that is a fool. I have never got the feeling they are leading anyone astray. But a person would be very foolish to buy just based on a good post. But fools there are plenty. Greed is a human characteristic. People get sucked in and excited by a good post. Knowing someone has a good track record, then seeing them post some information on a company, it can turn someone into a race horse with blinders on. They know they're running, and running hard, but have no idea why they are running.

There have been many a company on here that has been talked about and people who invested wisely made a lot of money. YML for example. It’s easy to pick on the shares where one has lost, but I don’t see you congratulating YT on that one. Like all investors, traders, and gamblers. You win and you lose. Ideally we all like to have 100% profits. But that is just unrealistic. There will always be losing investments. 

Getting back to my original paragraph though, it’s completely up to each person to take responsibility for their own actions. If I buy based on a post I saw, whether it be here, HC, FP, or wherever, at the end of the day, it was myself who put that buy order in. Only I can be held responsible for my actions. To emote negatively and publicly about a forum leading you astray makes one sound like a sheep following the herd. 





juw177 said:


> But more so, it was just a rant to point out how our internet forum picks have fared lately and that no amount of research can foresee how the market takes certain announcements... each breakdown on the list came after a significant announcement.


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## Bushman (30 November 2007)

Synergy said:


> Good thread...
> 
> Theres far too little talk about negative experiences around here. I think a problem a lot of traders have is dealing with losses. I've noticed that the only really active threads are those about rising stocks. Once it turns and falls, the thread goes dead, even though many still hold. So theres a natural instinct to not talk about things that aren't doing so well.
> 
> My position Statement is also in intensive care. Mostly due to my own lack of experience. Thinking its ok to hold a falling stock because the market went down too.




Believe it or not but my position statement has improved over the last month due to .... IIG. IIG for those who are not aware is a penny dreadful failed investor in tourism stocks that found a very speculative gold tenement, grabbed a few samples, reported a few hits +40 g/t and bang, a 225% return. Every 'legitimate' position taken has been hammered out of the water. Only thing to do is:
1. hang on for the bottom while in the mean time we walk on water;
2. set stop losses;
3. take on ridiculous amounts of risk; or
4. invest in BHP (and be bored senseless). 

The one that still hurts the most is QOL. Mining lease is finally granted after an eternity and the sp falls 20% triggering my stop loss. Another share that had a fantastic announcement today was KGL - Kentor Gold. Drilling program has been a fantastic success with widely spaced intervals of +10 g/t gold. SP down for the day! I don't think this is a trend only related to the ASF 'top 10' list - MHL, KAL, JMS etc.

Off course, I concur. My top 5 trading rules, all learnt the f**ken hard way, are - 
1. Know what the market is doing. Understand the economic indicators, where they are heading and your portfolio's covariance with the market.  
2. DYOR. Start with checking cash and shares on issue. Think of dilution, placements and the markets reception to these.
3. Have a trading plan and time horizon. 
4. Set stop losses.
5. Celebrate your wins and learn from your losses. You will have more losers than winners if investing in high risk shares. 

Take it easy people. Now if the next two ROY drilling targets are +60% FE, does this mean ROY will have a value in the mid teens. Strange times. C'mon Santa ease our furrowed brows and give us some legitimate price action.


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## juw177 (30 November 2007)

You are right gordon, the information on this forum has made more people money than otherwise. Learned a lot from people like YT. In the end, you are the one who decides to act on the information.

Most of the research I used here has been tip top and accurate. But people make more money going against the herd. If you are watching a company in anticipation of good results, will you buy in now or until after the results are announced? And if this anticipation is publicised to the internet masses most of whom are looking for a quick profit, what do you think will happen when the results come out, no matter how good?

And dont forget, information is publicly available and that is factored in the price. You can bet YT was not the first one to arrive at his conclusions. And, YT, should also add MDX to the list, I had been watching that one too from the posts on your thread. It just makes my head hurt when you look at other recent announcements like FDL or BOW.


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## Wysiwyg (30 November 2007)

gordon2007 said:


> This could be slightly off topic. But read it wholly before you decide.




I read all of your post and see your point of view.My question to you is .. if nothing is posted does the stock price act differently?


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## So_Cynical (30 November 2007)

Ive never brought in to any of the popular (Ramp) stocks...after all the internet is full of crap and i figured that applied here as well 

My holdings (total avg) are up about 18%...mostly Gold producers, since i started in late July....2 days before the correction.

I just don't know what the attraction is to company's that lose money.:dunno:


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