# 95th Tour de France - Australia's year!



## Trembling Hand (1 July 2008)

The Tour de France starts in a couple of days (5th July) and for the first time an Aussies is favorite to win. The Aussies have just about dominated the Green Jersey for the last couple of years but now its the main game an Aussies is favorite for.

For websites to have a look at tour news,

http://www.cyclingnews.com/

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/

http://www.letour.fr/us/homepage_horscourseTDF.html

And of course SBS has EVERY stage live on SBS from 10:00 PM (AET) 
Highlights: 6:00 PM (AET) 

and a good website as well
http://tdf.sbs.com.au/tdf2008/
lets hope the race attracts attention for the racing not the doping.


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## robots (1 July 2008)

hello,

yes going to be great trembling,

thankyou

robots


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## Agentm (1 July 2008)

going to be a tough few weeks, but will be watching it live as much as i can.


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## Trembling Hand (1 July 2008)

Yes late nights for sure. 
Shame Michael Rogers has been sick all year and not riding. He looked the goods last year until he crashed out.


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## nomore4s (1 July 2008)

I love the tour. Pretty sure there was a thread on last years race as well.

One of the toughest sporting events.


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## 2BAD4U (1 July 2008)

Obviously would love to see Cadel Evans win and he does have a good chance, however CSC have named a very strong team and perhaps look the goods.

CSC Team consists of:

Kurt-Asle Arvesen (Nor), Fabian Cancellara (Swi), Volodymyr Gustov (Ukr), Stuart O'Grady (Aus), Carlos Sastre (Spa), Andy Schleck (Lux), Frank Schleck (Lux), Nicki Sorensen (Den), Jens Voigt (Ger)


For those interested, here is a good site for live internet video for when SBS isn't showing.

http://www.steephill.tv/2008/tour-de-france/


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## Family_Guy (2 July 2008)

Here is a game i played in last year, it's free to play, it's like a fantasy league. Buy your fantasy team, and sit back and watch.......bit like trading really.
http://www.velogames.com/index.php


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## Trembling Hand (2 July 2008)

Family_Guy said:


> Here is a game i played in last year, it's free to play, it's like a fantasy league. Buy your fantasy team, and sit back and watch.......bit like trading really.
> http://www.velogames.com/index.php




Nice one Family_Guy.


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## Family_Guy (2 July 2008)

I've just found a tipping comp on Oztips for the TDF......would you like me to start one up for the ASF? The difference between the Oztip and the velogames is you need to tip daily for the Oztips and the tipping is swayed to what type of stage it is, Mountain, plain or TT. With the velogames, you buy your team at the start and hope for the best.

So shall i start one up?

edit...Oztips is a huge site for those that dont know of it where you can create generally any sporting comp. There is no cost and generally used for work places or forums, which i have comps set up in a few for afl and nrl.


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## gimme some (2 July 2008)

I cant wait. I have to agree with 2BAD, CSC look the team to beat with the Schleck bros and Sastre all riding for each other.
Cadel on the other hand also (finally) has a formidable team to back him up, so he is definately a big chance.
In the past Cadel seems to have lacked that bit of mongrel which i feel is necessary to win this race. At some stage he needs to throw down the gauntlet and challenge the others to stay with him rather than just hanging in there.
He knows this very well (he says he is told almost daily by people like me,lol) so i am sure it is something he has been working on.
GO CADEL


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## 2BAD4U (4 July 2008)

gimme some said:


> Cadel on the other hand also (finally) has a formidable team to back him up, so he is definately a big chance.
> In the past Cadel seems to have lacked that bit of mongrel which i feel is necessary to win this race. At some stage he needs to throw down the gauntlet and challenge the others to stay with him rather than just hanging in there.
> He knows this very well (he says he is told almost daily by people like me,lol) so i am sure it is something he has been working on.
> GO CADEL



You must have read the same article I did the other day. It was also saying that this year the whole team is behind Cadel and Robbie is going to have to win the sprints on his own. But he still can do it, no Tom Boonen, Zabel getting too old any O'Grady has openly said he is using the TDF as preparation for the olympics, which seems strange but he did say the crash last year and the more recent one have rattled him a bit. Be nice to see two Aussies wearing Green & Gold (yellow) at the end of it all.


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## Trembling Hand (8 July 2008)

Good article toady in the age about our "clean" Cadel.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/tourdefrance/lemond-hails-clean-evans/2008/07/07/1215282744350.html


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## Timmy (8 July 2008)

Gotta love the TDF, especially with the Aussies so prominent.

Are there any Spaniards in with a chance for the various jerseys?  Don't know what's going on in Spain but with the Euro soccer and Wimbledon under their belts ... could the TDF be next?


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## nomore4s (9 July 2008)

Cadel is well positioned now after the first T/T. Looking good so far.

A bit of a sprinters stage tonight so hopefully McEwen can show a bit.

But I'm looking forward to Stage 6 on Thur night with a couple of cat 2 climbs to finish the stage it should start to give an idea which of the GC competitiors are in good form. Stage 7 will provide a good follow up with a couple more cat 2 climbs but I'd imagine the field won't be so easily split on this stage.

Then we have to wait for stage 9 & 10 to really decide who the contenders will be.


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## Trembling Hand (9 July 2008)

Yeah!! To put a minute into some of the other favorites in such a short TT is huge!!

Makes me nervous already!!


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## 2BAD4U (10 July 2008)

Bring on the mountains. The next few stages should start to sort things out. It's a shame Soler is out, he was a surprise package last year.

On another note, I pitty you guys on the east coast. I've been in Melbourne this week and having to stay up until 2am and then go to work has got knobs on it. At least in Wait Awhile I can be in bed by midnight.


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## Trembling Hand (11 July 2008)

Err....  8 1/2 hours before the markets opens. 

Cadel did that one with ease. No challenge at all. So far so good hey.


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## wabbit (11 July 2008)

Just watched Cadel finish the first stage with a hill in it and his team was NOWHERE to be seen!  Will Aussie Cadel be the first ever to win Le Tour without the assistance of his team?  V.Poor effort from Lotto tonight   If Cadel expects to win, Lotto had better pull their respective fingers out and put in some decent efforts.  I don't think Cadel has the power to win on his own... has he ever won a stage?  The team management had better be giving the boys a flogging tonight for leaving "the talent" out there on his own...

I have been waiting for sooooo long for an Aussie to win the Tour; I'd hate to have to wait another year....


wabbit 

P.S.   Time for another Scotch to wash away the pain...


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## Trembling Hand (11 July 2008)

Riders have won without a strong team many a time, like Lemond. But the trend recently has been to build a team for the Tour. At some stage Cadel will be in yellow and thats when we will see how strong the team is.

Team aside there was no one else that looked that comfortable other than Cadel. Although it was only a small mountain stage it was still looks good.


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## Agentm (11 July 2008)

cadel had valverde covered, not a problem.. he's fine ...


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## nomore4s (11 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Riders have won without a strong team many a time, like Lemond. But the trend recently has been to build a team for the Tour. At some stage Cadel will be in yellow and thats when we will see how strong the team is.
> 
> Team aside there was no one else that looked that comfortable other than Cadel. Although it was only a small mountain stage it was still looks good.




I agree, we will find out how strong Cadels team is when he actually needs them. I think they will ride their @rses off for him when it is required, no need to ride themselves into the ground too early, especially before the big mountains, will do Cadel no good if they blow up too early.

Cadel is looking very strong, can't really see anyone being able to beat him atm, but there is still a long way to go and 1 bad stage is all it takes to lose the tour.

I hope Cadel wins a stage but I actually think he could win the tour without winning a stage. 
One of the things I don't like about Cadel is the fact he doesn't attack and try to win a stage and take control of the race, but if he wins the tour riding the way he does good on him, I'll still be cheering for him. He is more about limiting his losses, maybe he'd make a good trader.


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## 2BAD4U (11 July 2008)

I think Silence-Lotto did a good job last night. Caisse d'Epargne were doing all the work and there where 2 Silence-Lotto riders with Cadel sitting behind Caisse d'Epargne until the last climb. As nomore4s said, there is no point in blowing apart in the first week, riders actually ride into form during the tour not at the start.

As for Cadel winning a stage, I don't think it will happen as it's not his style. He's a tactical rider who knows he only has to finish in the group to get the same time now that there are no time bonus'.


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## justjohn (11 July 2008)

Finding it hard to get into this year.Tour seems to be lacking personalities and without Discovery & Team - Mobile  ,it's just rolling along with Cadel in control just happy finishing in the top 1/2 dozen


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## nomore4s (11 July 2008)

CSC are blowing the race apart atm, group of about 20 have got a breakaway going. A few of the big names in it as well.

With about 85 km to go and a decent climb it could be a very interesting night.


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## 2BAD4U (12 July 2008)

And we have our first drug cheat of the tour. Manuel Beltran of Liquigas has tested positive for EPO.  When will these W$@%#'s learn that they are destroying the image of a great sport.


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## Trembling Hand (14 July 2008)

Here we go. First bad luck to strike. Evans crashes may have a injured shoulder going into tonight's big mountain stage.

Tonight will be an important one.


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## Aussiejeff (14 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Here we go. First bad luck to strike. Evans crashes may have a injured shoulder going into tonight's big mountain stage.
> 
> Tonight will be an important one.




..... they didn't even have camera footage! Were prolly showing some pathetic Frenchman's backside at the rear of the field at the time..... LOL.

Mind you, it WOULD be nice to see ALL our Aussies performing in an AUSSIE backed AUSSIE ONLY team rather than having their collective talents frittered away within a mass of Euro backed Teams. 

Oh yeah, and send some AUSSIE camera crew(s) to focus on OUR lads a bit more....

Then again, I suppose OUR fickle media is more interested in Il Papa....
:aus:


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## Trembling Hand (15 July 2008)

*WOW!!. GOT IT.

Very nice ride considering he was flat on his back yesterday.

Hopefully not to soon.*

Boy was CSC strong though. Cadels going to be attacked to all hell in the Alps.


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## nomore4s (15 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> *WOW!!. GOT IT.
> 
> Very nice ride considering he was flat on his back yesterday.
> 
> ...




CSC is looking strong so is Saunier Duval who have won the last 2 mountain stages, they now have 2 riders within 2min 30sec of Cadel, will be interesting to see how they ride in the Alps as they can both climb, especially Ricco.
Now we find out how strong Cadels team is and how much they are willing to work for him.

If Cadel is in front or within a min leading up to the final T/T I'd be backing him to win the tour, his T/T is far surperior to any of the other top riders.

The only thing I dislike about Cadel is inability to win a stage (this is probably due to his reluctance to truly attack the other riders), if he wins the tour this year he will do it without winning a stage imo.
Oh how I miss Armstrong and his ability to take hold of the tour when it mattered.


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## Aussiejeff (15 July 2008)

nomore4s said:


> CSC is looking strong so is Saunier Duval who have won the last 2 mountain stages, they now have 2 riders within 2min 30sec of Cadel, will be interesting to see how they ride in the Alps as they can both climb, especially Ricco.
> Now we find out how strong Cadels team is and how much they are willing to work for him.
> 
> If Cadel is in front or within a min leading up to the final T/T I'd be backing him to win the tour, his T/T is far surperior to any of the other top riders.
> ...




At least the foregone result is totally up in the air at this point. With Armstrong, the race was over before it even started... :wreath


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## Damuzzdu (15 July 2008)

*Re: Tour de France*

Cadel now wearing the *Maillot Jaune*

Watch Cadel pulling on the Yellow Jersey here:

http://player.sbs.com.au/tdf#/tdf_0...highlights/playlist/STAGE-10-Cadel-in-Yellow/

Thought Cadel struggled slightly today, maybe feeling the effects of his crash during stage 9, but dug deep no doubt. Cadel is the 5th Ausralian to wear Yellow.

It was good to see him attack a few times, once he really got out of the saddle and looked like he was "really going for it" but got reeled in or he stopped racing.

Here are the standings are stage 10:

http://tdf.sbs.com.au/tdf2008/standings/

Real dangers to Cadel are now clearly Frank Schleck
(CSC), Christian Vandevelde(TSL), Denis Menchov(RAB), Carlos Sastre(CSC) and Riccardo Ricco(SDV) the others are prob too far back now. Of all the remaining leading contenders Cadel is the best time trialer, so it is looking ok, but big challenges remain.

Rest day today (Tuesday) with medium mountains day after and then 3 flat stages until the riders hit the Alps, with July 23 being the highlight when the riders tackle the stage up L’Alpe-d’Huez. If you only watch one stage on the TV (apart from the final stage into Paris), then this should be the stage to watch, can be very exciting. 

Cheers
Muzz


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## 2BAD4U (16 July 2008)

And we have another (Spanish) drug cheat with EPO, Moises Duenas Nevado of Barloworld this time.

Back to the race....

Stage 10 was a great ride, CSC and Jens Voigt are just machines. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cadel lose the yellow jersy by a couple of seconds over the next couple of days as this will suit him. Silence-Lotto are not a strong enough team to defend it imo (and by their own admission). Yaroslav Popovych has been a disappointment so far and he will need to lift to help Cadel in the next mountain stages, especially stage 17's L'Alpe-d'Huez. That's when we will see who the likely winner is.

As for Saunier Duval and Ricco / Piepoli, have they peaked too soon?? Time will tell.


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## chops_a_must (16 July 2008)

Cadel Evans... I could ride you right about now.


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## Agentm (16 July 2008)

will be a fantastic race tonight, wont miss it for anything..

what cadel did to get the yellow was a huge effort, and carrying an injury is hard enough when cycling, let alone riding against the worlds best and getting yellow!!

seeing this guy go from junior cross country to this is a joy to watch..

there is a long road ahead, i hope the team puts everything they have behind him!


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## Agentm (17 July 2008)

cadel maintains the yellow, and i maintain this sleep deprevation is going to have some cause and effect


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## 2BAD4U (17 July 2008)

Riccardo Ricco aka the Cobra, has now tested positive for EPO. I really had high hopes that this year would be different.


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## Aussiejeff (20 July 2008)

All "contaminated" water under the bridge..... now lets sit back and enjoy the next three *MONSTER* stages and scenery in the French Alps, with our lad Cadel still wearing the Yellow Canary ... woo-hoo!

If any stages were going to show up any remaining drug zombies, these three most certainly will shake them out.... I'm exhausted just "imagining" what it is going to be like for the riders climbing these dizzy heights!   

Go, go Cadel :aus:


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## tech/a (20 July 2008)

How do they work out the leader margin.

I notice Cadel has had a 1 second lead for the last 3 stages.
Surely he has either increased it a bit or the other guy has slipped back further?

To ride 150K and maintain a 1 second lead over 3 seperate days?
Me no understand?


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## chops_a_must (20 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> How do they work out the leader margin.
> 
> I notice Cadel has had a 1 second lead for the last 3 stages.
> Surely he has either increased it a bit or the other guy has slipped back further?
> ...




They generally give people who finish in the same pack the same time. They can give them placings, but to seperate times is too hard.

So then you get all the leaders trying to finish in the lead pack, without going for the win, to keep in touch, and not lose time. Cadel is riding for position in the packs perfectly right now.


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## Robb (20 July 2008)

The clock doesn't start counting until there has been a split in the peleton/group of a few meters. So as long as they finish within the same group, Cadel could finish 1st in the group, and Schleck could finish last in the group, but they would be recorded as finishing with the same time. Its to avoid carnage within the last 300meters of the race.
There are also rules surrounding a fall within the last 3kms as well, where if the finish is flat, the riders will be awarded the same time.

This year, there is also no time bonus' for placing in the top 5~.


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## dutchie (20 July 2008)

I know Cadel is good in the time trial sections but has he any credentials as a climber?


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## chops_a_must (20 July 2008)

dutchie said:


> I know Cadel is good in the time trial sections but has he any credentials as a climber?




He was a professional mountain biker.

And definitely...


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## dutchie (20 July 2008)

Thanks chops a must

Hope his team can pull up their socks too to help him get across the line in Paris.


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## refined silver (20 July 2008)

dutchie said:


> I know Cadel is good in the time trial sections but has he any credentials as a climber?




About 10 years ago he was kid just going from being a world ranked mtn biker (about 2nd in the world) to starting road racing. On the 2nd last stage of the Tour of Tasmania he just rode away from Neil Stephens up the 20km Mt Wellington climb to win the tour. Neil Stephens was a hardened professional racing for the Once team, who had won stages in the Tour de France and was a top ranked domestique, being the 2nd/3rd best climber on the ONCE team trying to help, people like Zulle and others to win the Tour. And Cadel as a kid just rode away from him. Yes, he can climb. He was second in the Tour de France last year, you don't do that without being one of the best climbers in the world.


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## arminius (20 July 2008)

looking forward to tonight. be interested  to see how his team handles it. the russian guy is crucial. 
go cadel!


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## ColB (20 July 2008)

> Originally Posted by dutchie
> I know Cadel is good in the time trial sections but has he any credentials as a climber?




Nice reply Refined Silver.  I thought this thread would be mainly for enthusiasts who know a little about the sport.

As stated, lets hope Cadel's team can give him some assistance in the mountains because if they don't other teams in serious contention will make it hard for Cadel as they continually send other riders up the road which Cadel will have to cover.   

A little other local knowledge is that when in Melbourne Cadel trains with quite a few other competitive cyclists down at Geelong and surrounds.


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## dutchie (20 July 2008)

Yes thanks Refined Silver for that info.




ColB said:


> I thought this thread would be mainly for enthusiasts who know a little about the sport.




Le Tour is certainly more interesting when there is an Aussie as favourite (we are all more willing to forgo sleep).

It would be good if the commentators would give more info about the current 2nd , 3rd, 4th etc positioned riders, compared to the race leader,as the race progresses.


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## nomore4s (20 July 2008)

Important stages over the next 3 nights.

CSC will no doubt attack on the first climb tonight and try to isolate Cadel for the finishing climb, I imagine they will attack him pretty hard over the next few days as they know they will need a buffer going into the T/T.

Going to be tired at work this week


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## Trembling Hand (21 July 2008)

The good and not so good last night.  Not sure if that was the start of the end for Cadel or he was happy to pass the yellow jersey to someone else. He is not looking that strong compared to the other 5 GC riders in the race. 

Nice to see an Aussie win a mountain stage. Here is simon gerrans blog,
http://www.simongerrans.com/


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## nomore4s (21 July 2008)

Not really sure if he wanted to hand over the yellow the way he did last night, while it takes the pressure off his team a bit he has now also opened the door for a few others.

CSC are going to be hard to beat but they do need at least a minute on Cadel for the T/T, imagine they will isolate & attack him pretty hard again on the next 2 stages to try and seriously crack him.

Cadels team has been pathetic and it could cost him the tour, no support whatsoever. Compare this to the CSC team who are willing to smash themselves for the team leaders, CSC are riding an awesome race but will it be enough?


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## Aussiejeff (21 July 2008)

Wow! What a ride by Simon Gerrans!!  With a rest day today, he could well do it again on the next stage... looks like we have a budding future champ to take over from Cadel after all! Simon certainly has the ideal compact, but powerfully built light body frame suited for attacking mountain stages. I would be willing to bet that Cadel weighs around 10-15kg more, which is a big handicap going up those monster mountains and probably why he always runs out of steam towards the end of the big climb stages. However, Cadel's more "beefy" build is the best of the leading bunch for time trialling, where that extra body weight and strength gives him relatively more speed and power over the flat time trial stages. It would be nice for Cadel if they included just one more time trial stage in the Tour!!)

With regard to how Simon blew away his competition at the top of the mountain, apparently the local mountain that he trains on near Mansfield, VIC, has some 20% inclines  - so last nights 8-9% grades near the top were relatively "easy" for him. The thing that REALLY impressed me was his ability to ATTACK and breakaway from the start and maintain it all the way like he did - something that I don't remember Cadel ever doing in the Tour. 

So, even if Cadel was unable to realise the dream this year (I now have the feeling that if he doesn't make it this time, he might never get such a chance again - for me, his body build just doesn't seem to have what it takes to REALLY attack and tame the decisive monster peaks), there is renewed hope for Aussie cycling's future in the Tour. Here's hoping Simon manages to steer clear of "The Dark Side" and any major accident injuries and develops into our future great mountain hope. Who knows, two years from now, Cadel might be riding support for Simon!!

Go you Aussies! :aus:


AJ


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## 2BAD4U (21 July 2008)

Great win for Gerrans.  Menchov showed his colours last night and if it wasn't for that crash in the last few Km's he may well have been in yellow.  CSC are still the team to beat and they just punished Cadel and exposed his lack of team mates, especially Popovych who was brought in as the big name recruit to support Cadel.  Who knows, maybe he's run out of juice  since leaving Discovery.


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## ColB (21 July 2008)

> *Originally posted by Aussie Jeff*
> 
> "...I would be willing to bet that Cadel weighs around 10-15kg more, which is a big handicap going up those monster mountains and probably why he always runs out of steam towards the end of the big climb stages..."




Aussie, Simon Gerrans is 64kg, Cadel Evans is 68kg according to a quick Google search.  Whilst it was great to see Simon win that stage, remember he is still almost an hour behind Cadel in the overall GC.

Lets not be too quick to write Cadel off after last nights performance.  I think you'll see a pretty gritty determination from Cadel not to let anyone that matters put any significant time into him in the next couple of hill stages.

You're spot on in terms of Cadel having no support.  Its going to be a huge challenge for him.

He will cover every move!!! (Be positive, positive, positive)

Least we get some sleep tonight!!:sleeping:


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## Trembling Hand (21 July 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Wow! What a ride by Simon Gerrans!!  With a rest day today, he could well do it again on the next stage... looks like we have a budding future champ to take over from Cadel after all! Simon certainly has the ideal compact, but powerfully built light body frame suited for attacking mountain stages. I would be willing to bet that Cadel weighs around 10-15kg more, which is a big handicap going up those monster mountains and probably why he always runs out of steam towards the end of the big climb stages.
> 
> The thing that REALLY impressed me was his ability to ATTACK and breakaway from the start and maintain it all the way like he did - something that I don't remember Cadel ever doing in the Tour.
> 
> Who knows, two years from now, Cadel might be riding support for Simon!!




Gerrans is a bloody good rider but he is a long way away from Evans pedigree. 
Gerrans is a long way away from even riding with Evans peers let alone being able to attach them. Remember he won on a solo breakaway because he is an hour behind. He still lost 10 minutes to Cadel & Co in the last 11 km climb.

Kind of puts it in perspective.


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## Aussiejeff (22 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Gerrans is a bloody good rider but he is a long way away from Evans pedigree.
> Gerrans is a long way away from even riding with Evans peers let alone being able to attach them. Remember he won on a solo breakaway because he is an hour behind. He still lost 10 minutes to Cadel & Co in the last 11 km climb.
> 
> Kind of puts it in perspective.




Given Gerrans is under no pressure GC-wise, I wonder if he might now be a potential contender for the "King of the Mountains" jersey? Here are the current "Climber" standings after his great win the other night.

POS No. Name  Team Points 

1 115 Bernhard KOHL  GST 85 
2 117 Sebastian LANG  GST 60 
3 024 Egoi MARTINEZ  EUS 50 
*4 086 Simon GERRANS  C.A 50 *
5 017 Frank SCHLECK  CSC 46 
6 102 Jose Luis ARRIETA  ALM 40 
7 149 Thomas VOECKLER  BTL 39 
8 199 Danny PATE  TSL 37 
9 011 Carlos SASTRE  CSC 35 
10 131 Denis MENCHOV  RAB 34 

Could he be a chance if his *stunned* team management now realise his actual potential and give HIM the full team support (rather than Credit Agracole's Alexandre Botcharov who is now nearly 10 mins behind in the G.C. and absolutely no chance IMO) and the green light to attack again in the last two mountain stages?

It would be great to have two Aussies to focus on coming in to the final stages eh?

:aus:

AJ


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## nomore4s (22 July 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Given Gerrans is under no pressure GC-wise, I wonder if he might now be a potential contender for the "King of the Mountains" jersey? Here are the current "Climber" standings after his great win the other night.




In short no. 

As good as Gerrans win was (I was cheering - nearly woke the neighbourhood up) he was only given that sort of latitude because he wasn't a threat to anyone. He is now close enough to the KOM leaders that he becomes a threat so I think he'll find it hard to get in a breakaway like that again.

Atm I don't think Gerrans can match it in the mountains with the true climbers, hence his being so far behind in the GC.


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## Trembling Hand (23 July 2008)

That looked good for Cadel he rode away from Menchov on the decent. As well as Vande Velde cracking and losing a lot of time.

Anyone see that young guy go over the edge!! Nasty

Tomorrows stage is going to go right off.


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## kitehigh (23 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> That looked good for Cadel he rode away from Menchov on the decent. As well as Vande Velde cracking and losing a lot of time.
> 
> Anyone see that young guy go over the edge!! Nasty
> 
> Tomorrows stage is going to go right off.




Yeh that young South African was the first over the mountain and was set for a great finish, he is lucky he wasn't seriously hurt could have been much worse if he had gone over one of those sheer drops.  If I was a spectator I would have gone down into that valley and claimed myself a nice ride.. 

Cadel had a great result, put over a minute and a half on the russian on the over all standings.  His down hill riding was superb.  He has another tough day ahead of him tomorrow and if he is still in the same position that he is in now than he will be almost unstoppable going into the final stages. 

Fingers crossed for tomorrows stage.


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## refined silver (23 July 2008)

Hardest day in the Tour coming up. Last day in the mtns. A mtn top finish on one of the hardest climbs. Three major climbs for the day. Some of Cadel's closest rivals will need 3 minutes lead over him going into the final time-trial to win the tour. 

His biggest danger is being isolated too early, its nearly impossible to race 3 vs 1 against say CSC as they take turns to attack and the other two sit on you while you chase and then they attack. His biggest asset is that its the last day in the mtns, he doesn't have to save anything, but can give it everything. Also being the last mtn stage hopefully there will be enough others around racing for the stage win, that he is not totally alone.


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## Aussiejeff (23 July 2008)

refined silver said:


> Hardest day in the Tour coming up. Last day in the mtns. A mtn top finish on one of the hardest climbs. Three major climbs for the day. Some of Cadel's closest rivals will need 3 minutes lead over him going into the final time-trial to win the tour.
> 
> His biggest danger is being isolated too early, its nearly impossible to race 3 vs 1 against say CSC as they take turns to attack and the other two sit on you while you chase and then they attack. His biggest asset is that its the last day in the mtns, he doesn't have to save anything, but can give it everything. Also being the last mtn stage hopefully there will be enough others around racing for the stage win, that he is not totally alone.




At last, Cadel's main support rider Popovych actually showed some form too  so one would hope he can finally earn his keep and hang in with Cadel right through tonight's three climbs. Cadel showed some true grit last night to shadow team Schleck - I mean, Team CSC  . Fingers x'ed he gets Poppas' 110% support for the big one tonight!

Poor Simon Gerrans appears to have "peaked" when he surprisingly won the previous stage! He was nowhere to be seen last night... his rather lacklustre performance after the rest day raised not one mention from the SBS commentators during the race itself. In the end, he managed to place a lowly 134th out of the remaining 151 Tour riders - coming home a whopping 32 minutes behind the winner - at the tail of the "autobus"! Hopefully he can perform better tonight....

Go :aus:

AJ


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## Trembling Hand (23 July 2008)

Not so sure about how much the CSC team will push Cadel any more. They lost the tactical advantage last night with all their work and and no effect on Cadel.

Its still an individual race and all he has to worry about is not losing time to two CSC riders. The rest can attach him all they like. Cadel can just ignore everyone from CSC other than  Frank Schleck & Carlos Sastre.

In fact Cadel won last night by riding away from Denis Menchov & CSC look like they have done a lot of work for no gain. Tonight is going to be a ripper for sure but who out of the top 5 is going to take 2 min out of Cadel??

On last nights form no one. Unless they where doing some serious games waiting for their very last chance!! :dunno:


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## 2BAD4U (23 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Tonight is going to be a ripper for sure but who out of the top 5 is going to take 2 min out of Cadel??
> 
> On last nights form no one. Unless they where doing some serious games waiting for their very last chance!! :dunno:



Kohl is a bit of an unknown and has stated he is going for GC not KOM tonight and Cadel is not renowned for his mountain top finishes so it's quite possible.  I still wouldn't write off Menchov either.

I just hope that Cadel doesn't rely on the TT as someone wearing yellow could just dig deep enough to out ride him. Two nervous nights of viewing coming up.....Go Cadel :aus::bowdown:

As for the other Aussie's
- Simon Gerrans will be up there in 2 - 3 years.
- Adam Hansen had been doing a lot of work for Team Columbia to help Cavendish to his 4 wins.
- Stuart O'Grady has shown what a team player he is, I've enjoyed seeing him destroy himself on the front each night (in a good way that is) watch him go at the olympics.


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## spooly74 (23 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> .
> 
> In fact Cadel won last night by riding away from Denis Menchov & CSC look like they have done a lot of work for no gain. Tonight is going to be a ripper for sure but who out of the top 5 is going to take *2 min *out of Cadel??
> 
> On last nights form no one. Unless they where doing some serious games waiting for their very last chance!! :dunno:




Is that the margin he is expected to take out of the time trial ahead of the rest?

Haven’t watched the tour since the days of Stephen Roche (lived around the corner from me) but decided to give it a go this year.
Have they all been as good as this?....I’m absolutely knackered.

If Cadel wins this, he will have effectively done it all on his own ...incredible effort.


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## refined silver (24 July 2008)

Well done Cadel!!! Only let 1 guy take any time from him today and he goes into the T/T only 1:34 behind a guy he should beat by a bit more more than that. 

Nearly impossible to ride against 3/4 vs 1, but he was absolutely spot on today. If he had hit the front any earlier, others would have sat on him and then hit him before the finish and gained valuable time.

Sport is sport and anything can happen, including things totally our of field, but IMHO, Cadel won the tour today.


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## Trembling Hand (24 July 2008)

1:35 to take back in the Time Trial??

He made 1:15 in the smaller Stage 4 30 Km?? Boy oh Boy.


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## chops_a_must (24 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> 1:35 to take back in the Time Trial??
> 
> He made 1:15 in the smaller Stage 4 30 Km?? Boy oh Boy.




I didn't like how he looked at the end of that. He looked like he had worked 200% harder than anyone else out there.

Boy, I felt like throwing up for him a the end of that climb. 

Really want him to win - haven't barracked for an individual like this in a long time. But boy... what does he have left?

How many people are keen cyclists in here?


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## refined silver (24 July 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I didn't like how he looked at the end of that. He looked like he had worked 200% harder than anyone else out there.
> 
> Boy, I felt like throwing up for him a the end of that climb.
> 
> ...




He had to work, as the commentators said, as he was the one with the most to gain. The top 5 or 6 are all incredibly even in the mountains so no-one is able to get away from anyone else.

Unbelivably hard day and stage, >60km of climbing finishing with that! He was stuffed, but so was everyone, he only really laid it on the line the last 3km, he has two days to keep out of trouble and save his legs before the T/T, so that'll be okay.

I never rode the Tour but have ridden/raced with a few of the guys there.


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## Speewha (24 July 2008)

Hello, 
Many against one has made life very difficult for Cadel. Win or not I think this has been one of the greatest sporting performances ever by an Aussie.

It must be so hard to keep going in such tough conditions when all around you have one aim to knock you off or slow you down. 

Watch him go in the individual t/t.

 Does anybody know if you can send a hero message to Cadel like you can to our Olympians.     
 Regards


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## nomore4s (24 July 2008)

Speewha said:


> Hello,
> Many against one has made life very difficult for Cadel. Win or not I think this has been one of the greatest sporting performances ever by an Aussie.
> 
> It must be so hard to keep going in such tough conditions when all around you have one aim to knock you off or slow you down.
> ...




Unfortunately the tour also has a team element and for a team that has supposedly been built around Cadel for this tour it has been very weak. CSC has dominated the race.

I feel Cadel has been banking on the T/T all tour and now that he is over a minute behind I hope he hasn't left himself too much to do and doesn't have any bad luck on the T/T. Sastre could also ride the T/T of his life with the tour on the line.

I think you can leave messages for him on his website.


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## Trembling Hand (24 July 2008)

refined silver said:


> The top 5 or 6 are all incredibly even in the mountains so no-one is able to get away from anyone else.




Yes amazing how even and close everyone is as they weed out all the dopers!!



refined silver said:


> I never rode the Tour but have ridden/raced with a few of the guys there.




I've done a fair pit of racing in Vic 10 or more years ago.
Biggest claim to fame was betting Stuart O'Grady in a 10 km raod TT in the Mildura ride to the Sun tour.

Still tell my partner every time he appears on the TV. 

Where and when did you race?


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## Agentm (24 July 2008)

my view is still the same, cadel is really in a strong position to take the tour out, anyone seeing how the csc riders are can also see where the future champions are, there is something unique about the brothers thats for sure..

anyone who has done hill climbs can easily appreciate the absolute pain and strength of mind you need to not only climb a hill like that, but to be racing tactically on top of that and have every team there trying to prevent you from performing and trying to blow you out is absolutely staggering..


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## Aussiejeff (24 July 2008)

Agentm said:


> my view is still the same, cadel is really in a strong position to take the tour out, anyone seeing how the csc riders are can also see where the future champions are, there is something unique about the brothers thats for sure..
> 
> anyone who has done hill climbs can easily appreciate the absolute pain and strength of mind you need to not only climb a hill like that, but to be racing tactically on top of that and have every team there trying to prevent you from performing and trying to blow you out is absolutely staggering..




Yes, a great ride under the conditions for Cadel - though I thought he looked "gone" a couple of times on that last ascent. Fortunately for him almost everyone but Sastre were out of gas as well!

Everyone, including the SBS commentators, seem to write off the next two stages as mere "nothings" in how they might affect the overall standings. Might as well abandon them then? Hmmm. I would expect Menchov (1.05 behind Cadel) and even Vandevelde (3.07 behind Cadel) to throw all caution to the wind in tonight's stage and break away early. The cat 3 climb up the Col de Parmenie (422m over 7.5km = 6%) and the cat 2 climb up the Croix de Montvieux both provide a chance for them to seriously attack the lead Cadel has over them. Wouldn't tonight's stage be their last hope to get top three going into the trial?

Also, why would the other three riders in front of Cadel (Sastre, Schleck & Kohl) just sit there with their current times, cruise through the next two stages without attacking and then wait for Cadel to knock them off in the TT? That would make no sense at all. 

So, rather than writing off the next two stages as "nothing" cruise and recuperation events, I personally think tonight's stage in particular could be as fiery as last nights, as Cadel's main competitors try to *wring* even more time out of him. Dig deep, Cadel :aus:

AJ


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## refined silver (24 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> I've done a fair pit of racing in Vic 10 or more years ago.Biggest claim to fame was betting Stuart O'Grady in a 10 km raod TT in the Mildura ride to the Sun tour.
> 
> Still tell my partner every time he appears on the TV.
> 
> Where and when did you race?




Was in the national road team for a few years, went to the Games in 92, Stuey was track and I was road. I know Robbie the best, most of the guys are retired that I rode with. 

Thats pretty good beating Stuey in a T/T!!


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## ColB (24 July 2008)

> Was in the national road team for a few years, went to the Games in 92, Stuey was track and I was road. I know Robbie the best, most of the guys are retiring I rode with.
> 
> Thats pretty good beating Stuey in a T/T!!




Hey TH & RF great to see this forum not just about shares only.  I took up cycling after 30 odd years of playing Lacrosse.  

In my early 40's I won the Melbourne to Warrnambool.  (Now how can I minimise the font to indicate it was D Grade)

Anyway, I'm referred to by the Carnegie group as the bloke that 'flicked the chick' as I outsprinted Katie Mactier (current olympian) for the win.

Still get down to the 6am North Road ride to Mordy & back into St Kilda but it's getting Bloody hard at this time of year when its six degrees celsius.

Cadel was 96 seconds faster than Sastre in the first time trial over 30k's so over 53k's according to my calc's he is going to put 2 minutes and 52 seconds into Sastre.  I know, pretty optimistic, but we can only hope.

regards CB


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## Trembling Hand (24 July 2008)

refined silver said:


> Was in the national road team for a few years,
> went to the Games in 92,



Well then we have probably swapped the odd turn together. 

You from QLD?


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## 2BAD4U (24 July 2008)

Aussiejeff, I agree with you in that they still need to put more time on Cadel and are going to attack over the next 2 stages.  Great to see Cadel take the lead in the end (but he had to!!).

You have all got it over me in the cycling stakes. I have never ridden competitively and took up cycling a few years ago due to illness.  I now ride about 200 - 250km's a week (a bit less at the moment because of the cold ) and I ride in events with Cyclosportif here in WA.  For those that haven't heard of it, it is team events aimed at participation with the choice of 3 distances. Absolutely great concept. Anyone in WA interested you can find the information about it HERE


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## refined silver (24 July 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Well then we have probably swapped the odd turn together.




Maybe!!
When did you start and finish racing?



> You from QLD




Yes


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## refined silver (24 July 2008)

ColB said:


> Hey TH & RF great to see this forum not just about shares only.  I took up cycling after 30 odd years of playing Lacrosse.
> 
> In my early 40's I won the Melbourne to Warrnambool.  (Now how can I minimise the font to indicate it was D Grade)
> 
> Anyway, I'm referred to by the Carnegie group as the bloke that 'flicked the chick' as I outsprinted Katie Mactier (current olympian) for the win.




Congrats! Much better than being flicked by a chick.

Yeah its probably surprising who's hiding behind all the handles on the forum.


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## chops_a_must (25 July 2008)

2BAD4U said:


> Aussiejeff, I agree with you in that they still need to put more time on Cadel and are going to attack over the next 2 stages.  Great to see Cadel take the lead in the end (but he had to!!).
> 
> You have all got it over me in the cycling stakes. I have never ridden competitively and took up cycling a few years ago due to illness.  I now ride about 200 - 250km's a week (a bit less at the moment because of the cold ) and I ride in events with Cyclosportif here in WA.  For those that haven't heard of it, it is team events aimed at participation with the choice of 3 distances. Absolutely great concept. Anyone in WA interested you can find the information about it HERE




Thanks for that mate.

Recently took up cycling after screwing my ankle playing footy. Absolutely loving it so far. Don't ever remember being this unfit ahahahaha...


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## trillionaire#1 (25 July 2008)

i try and get on the bike a few days a week,Adelaide`s linear park is a nice interesting ride. two hours on it and i usually cark it for the rest of the day.

watching the tour and its scenery is something i look forward to every year.  
its great to have an aussie with a chance to win with only a few stages left.

GO CADEL:bring it home mate.


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## Aussiejeff (25 July 2008)

2BAD4U said:


> Aussiejeff, I agree with you in that they still need to put more time on Cadel and are going to attack over the next 2 stages.  Great to see Cadel take the lead in the end (but he had to!!)....




Well, YIPPEE! We were _wrong, wrong, *wrong*...._ at least LAST night, which really surprised me.

IMHO if that is the *best* that Cadel's *opposition* could do on what was ostensibly the last stage in the Tour that might have offered anything like an opportunity for climbers like Sastre, Kohl and Schleck to pull some more gaps, then those guys are all but finished and just rode for 3rd, 4th and 5th places. Seeing them all roll over and pay ultimate respect like that (even Menchov made no effort - is he riding for 2nd?) suggests to me now that Cadel is indeed all but in the Yellow!

Roll on time trial..... :aus:


AJ


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## dutchie (25 July 2008)

I can't understand why there was not more pressure put on Cadel.

Especially from the strong CSC team. Surely they could have at a minimum fatigued Cadel by making him cover any breakaways by the leading riders.

Every second will count in the last stage for Sastre so 10 seconds or a more buggered Cadel might be the difference.

Anyone able to explain this (non) tactic?


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## refined silver (25 July 2008)

dutchie said:


> I can't understand why there was not more pressure put on Cadel.
> 
> Especially from the strong CSC team. Surely they could have at a minimum fatigued Cadel by making him cover any breakaways by the leading riders.
> 
> ...




On flatter stages, Cadel doesn't have to do anything, his team can do it for him. So their attacks would tire themselves and Cadels' team, but not Cadel. Its only the super mountainous stages where his team is all dropped and he has to do everything himself. 

Secondly, all the other teams and riders know they only have a couple of stages left to try for stage wins, so they also race harder, chase things, so they keep things together or get in breaks by themselves. 

Finally, its not just Cadel's team, just as when Menchov was dropped on the early part of Alpe D'Huez, guys further down GC (General Classification) started riding hard at the front of Cadel's group, becasue then they would move up from say 6th to 5th. On the flatter stages if a high up guy got away, he would have 4 or 5 teams chasing as those teams don't want their leaders dropping down places, or losing further time on the overall standings.

Thats why barring very unusual circumstances, (which do happen, but very rarely for the above reasons,) things will most likely stay as they are til the T/T.


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## Trembling Hand (25 July 2008)

refined silver said:


> Maybe!!
> When did you start and finish racing?




Started racing opens around 92 all washed up by 96. Mostly Vic. But some NSW, QLD and TAS racing.


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## Aussiejeff (25 July 2008)

refined silver said:


> On flatter stages, Cadel doesn't have to do anything, his team can do it for him....




But, by doing NOTHING to at least TRY to gain some time, his competitors are playing 100% into Cadel's plan to *smash* them in the final TT. So, why did they not throw caution to the wind and try to mix it up with some "unexpected" attacks? If any of the three riders currently in front of Cadel had gone nuts and tried to pulled out 5-6 mins or so on a series of independent breakaways, Cadel himself would have been forced to chase like crazy each time - not just his teammates - and his plans for the TT might just have been shaken up a bit. But not now. 

They are clearly not going to win now, so what REALLY stopped them from at least giving it a go? All we saw were 5 of the weakest riders in the Tour last night going out on breaks. I wasted 4 hours of sleep for a boring stage that should have had some final, desperate grit? Don't get me wrong, I WANT Cadel to win - and it looks more likely than ever now that he will - but I would have liked to see the other contenders show a bit more gumption in the process.... even the usually laid back "expert" TV commentators were also surprised at the lack of aggression last night by his main contenders.  

Time to put the glasses and Champers on ice.... and not bother watching tonight's limp stage.


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## dutchie (25 July 2008)

I agree Aussiejeff. Cadel would have been laughing all the way to the bank.

Hope he wins!


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## Agentm (25 July 2008)

its not possible to break away if your a top 10 rider.. simply cant happen..

there is no need to try and break cadel down in these stages as your going to do the same to your own top riders, so all are taking it easy for the TT..

cadel is clearly a good chance to make an impact, with 4 riders on the course at the same time the time trial will be amazing.. i think cadel has practice ridden it 4 times already, he knew the tour would be won in the  last TT..  

there is no pressure on cadel right now.. he only has to ride to win..

the question is can the others time trial as fast as cadel?? is 1.30 enough time to be infront of cadel??  if you look at previous 60k time trials you may see that it probably isnt enough time to be ahead of cadel.. but you can look at the time trial earlier in this tour to see some examples of how good he is!! 

imho they have to be more concerned about their own abilities to time trial.. cadel can grind like nothing else.. the others are mainly climbers, menchov is behind cadel and will have to put in a blinder to beat cadel

last time trial  29.5 km..  this one is nearly twice that!!     53 km...

look at these times over 30 km...  and imagine that on a short sprint like that how much faster cadel had to have been going to get those times!!  he can do that over 53 km also..  imho its harder for the ones in the lead than it will be for cadel!!

4. EVANS Cadel 1 SILENCE - LOTTO 14h 05' 02" + 00' 21" 

11. MENCHOV Denis 131 RABOBANK 14h 05' 53" + 01' 12" 

23. SASTRE Carlos 11 TEAM CSC SAXO BANK 14h 06' 24" + 01' 43" 

24. KOHL Bernhard 115 GEROLSTEINER 14h 06' 28" + 01' 47" 

28. SCHLECK Frank 17 TEAM CSC SAXO BANK 14h 06' 49" + 02' 08" 



dont write off cadel just yet..


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## Agentm (26 July 2008)

this guys heart is twice the size of a person his height weight and age..

aerobic fitness... at 18 years old the VO2 max was 80 (oxgen consumption per minute per kg) which is twice the rate of a normal person and higher than lance armstrong..

good luck to the contenders, but they need to be doing nearly the impossible to match this elite athelite


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## nomore4s (27 July 2008)

Cadel to finish 2nd again, this time by over a minute.

But wow what a ride by Sastre and even Kohl to finish 3rd. The effect of the yellow jersey can't be underestimated, Sastre lost less then 30sec to Cadel.

While I would have liked to see  an Aussie in yellow in Paris I think Sastre and the CSC team have been the strongest team and have controlled the race and taken the chances when they needed to. Sastres ride up the Alpe d'Huez was awesome.

Cadel and his team need to rethink thier tatics imo. Firstly Cadel needs a team that is willing to work for him like CSC work for each other, also Cadel can't leave it all up to the T/T - 1min 34sec was just too much, proved too easy to defend that much time.


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## 2BAD4U (27 July 2008)

Nice of Schleck to ride a "bad" TT and act as the proverbial carrot for Sastre 

By far this 2nd for Cadel is better than last years. Last year some of the top guns left under controversy this year Cadel has done it all on his own (literally) and had to battle the whole CSC team.

Well done Cadel, now rip up that contract and start looking for a new team.


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## Dezza (27 July 2008)

Last leg just starting now on SBS...

Unless Sastre falls off a cliff, looks as though Cadel will be planting his feet on the runners up box again. Pity he's a one man team...otherwise he would've killed them this year. 

Time to concentrate on the Olympics and 2009 Tour.


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