# My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?



## Family_Guy

My strategy is pretty simple. My goal is/was to feed the family. With no debts i worked that out to about $150/day (5 day week).
So i thought, throw 10 or 20k at something, pull it out as quick as possible for a quick small profit, get up and go do some housework (or whateva)

It's worked a treat so far. Lost some dollars along the way, but done pretty well since going head first in April 08.

But just lately it's gone pear shaped. Not as in lost money. You see, i bought a couple of what i thought were well oversold stocks, in particular AIO and MRE and in Jan it was ESG, BRM etc. Sold out as quick as i could and was very happy at the outcome. But less than a week after selling all, all doubled in price and i wasnt there.

So OK, i turn 20 into 26, but it could have been 20 into 40.......see my problem? 

Someone told me once before i started trading to set goals and to stick to them. Should i be changing goals or just be happy i ain't sitting here in socks only??


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## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: My trading strategy blows goats...should i change?*



Family_Guy said:


> My strategy is pretty simple. My goal is/was to feed the family. With no debts i worked that out to about $150/day (5 day week).
> So i thought, throw 10 or 20k at something, pull it out as quick as possible for a quick small profit, get up and go do some housework (or whateva)
> 
> It's worked a treat so far. Lost some dollars along the way, but done pretty well since going head first in April 08.
> 
> But just lately it's gone pear shaped. Not as in lost money. You see, i bought a couple of what i thought were well oversold stocks, in particular AIO and MRE and in Jan it was ESG, BRM etc. Sold out as quick as i could and was very happy at the outcome. But less than a week after selling all, all doubled in price and i wasnt there.
> 
> So OK, i turn 20 into 26, but it could have been 20 into 40.......see my problem?
> 
> Someone told me once before i started trading to set goals and to stick to them. Should i be changing goals or just be happy i ain't sitting here in socks only??




Its not a problem mate.

Its called greed.

Nothing wrong with that.

Keep posting especially when 40k goes to 5k.

You don't seem to have a plan .

gg


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## Family_Guy

*Re: My trading strategy blows goats...should i change?*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Keep posting especially when 40k goes to 5k.




RIO, BNB, OZL.......they were my big ones


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## So_Cynical

*Re: My trading strategy blows goats...should i change?*

Family_Guy as u should of learned by now...u just cant get it right all the time.

Having a exit only on a trailing stop loss policy seems to be the go.


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## Timmy

Family_Guy said:


> Re: My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?




Stop for a moment and think of the goats, I am sure they are quite happy with your current strategy.


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## tech/a

*Simple solution.*

Let a % of the profit ride.

I know of a trader who 's strategy was to keep kis winners until they reached 100% or were stopped out.
Those that reached 100% he would sell the initial capital value and hold the rest as a free trade with a wider fixed stop.

Over 6 yrs he had 30 in his stable and if he needed cash would just sell a handfull of the worst performing stock.


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## Sean K

tech/a said:


> *Simple solution.*
> 
> Let a % of the profit ride.
> 
> I know of a trader who 's strategy was to keep kis winners until they reached 100% or were stopped out.
> Those that reached 100% he would sell the initial capital value and hold the rest as a free trade with a wider fixed stop.
> 
> Over 6 yrs he had 30 in his stable and if he needed cash would just sell a handfull of the worst performing stock.



Hm, I like that idea. Might give it a run. Cheers tech.


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## Megabuzz

Ya cant go broke taking a profit!  Dont beat yaself up.

Megabuzz


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## Trembling Hand

Megabuzz said:


> Ya cant go broke taking a profit!  Dont beat yaself up.
> 
> Megabuzz




Of course you can. If you take your profits at $500 but you lose $1000 on a bad one you will go broke very quickly.

Even worse is I think family guy has said that he wants to pay daily living expensive from a very small capital base. Working out what you need per day is crazy.  Because in reality you really need to make 4 times that each day.


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## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Of course you can. If you take your profits at $500 but you lose $1000 on a bad one you will go broke very quickly.
> 
> Even worse is I think family guy has said that he wants to pay daily living expensive from a very small capital base. Working out what you need per day is crazy.  Because in reality you really need to make 4 times that each day.




Yeah
And he wants to make $150 a day ~250 days a year
Thats $37,500 a year

IMO you'd either need to be *really good* to make $37,500 EVERY YEAR if you trade off only having $20,000.

Also because that $37,500 a year is on expenses, you are effectively having a $0 capital growth. So you need to produce amazing results year in year out just to keep food on the table.


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## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> Also because that $37,500 a year is on expenses, you are effectively having a $0 capital growth. So you need to produce amazing results year in year out just to keep food on the table.




And there is the problem with working to a minimum daily figure. You get there on a good day/trade and stop. But stopping out a winner is toxic to long term profitability. You end up looking back after 6 months and doing the what if game. You soon realise having a daily target, especially a low one, just sets you up for failure. 

Better to have a system/target that has a chance of making $10,000 per day rather than $150. What happens if you only get half way there. With the $150 system you will be bankrupt, with the $10,000 getting only half way to your goal will mean a few less options on your 50' boat.


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## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> And there is the problem with working to a minimum daily figure. You get there on a good day/trade and stop. But stopping out a winner is toxic to long term profitability. You end up looking back after 6 months and doing the what if game. You soon realise having a daily target, especially a low one, just sets you up for failure.
> 
> Better to have a system/target that has a chance of making $10,000 per day rather than $150. What happens if you only get half way there. With the $150 system you will be bankrupt, with the $10,000 getting only half way to your goal will mean a few less options on your 50' boat.




Another problem too. It gets to 2 oclock and you still havn't made any money. The family will be hungry.... Most likely what will happen is you'll start to gamble rather than trade to try and get the bread on the table

Brad


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## Wysiwyg

Family_Guy said:


> My strategy is pretty simple. My goal is/was to feed the family. With no debts i worked that out to about $150/day (5 day week).
> So i thought, throw 10 or 20k at something, pull it out as quick as possible for a quick small profit, get up and go do some housework (or whateva)




Two full long ASX200 contracts at 3200 points would have pulled 25k in less than a month at 3700 points.Hindsight, but the bounce was not.

Anything is possible.



> Stop for a moment and think of the goats, I am sure they are quite happy with your current strategy.




Nice to see a moderator with a GSOH.


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## voyz

lucky goats...


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## ivant

tech/a said:


> *Simple solution.*
> 
> Let a % of the profit ride.
> 
> I know of a trader who 's strategy was to keep kis winners until they reached 100% or were stopped out.
> Those that reached 100% he would sell the initial capital value and hold the rest as a free trade with a wider fixed stop.
> 
> Over 6 yrs he had 30 in his stable and if he needed cash would just sell a handfull of the worst performing stock.




hahaha he obviously invested at the start of a bull market. In that case, if he didnt sell at the right time, im supposing his net worth would be ... the same as it was 6 years ago less inflation..  good idea on paper though



Trembling Hand said:


> Of course you can. If you take your profits at $500 but you lose $1000 on a bad one you will go broke very quickly.
> 
> Even worse is I think family guy has said that he wants to pay daily living expensive from a very small capital base. Working out what you need per day is crazy.  Because in reality you really need to make 4 times that each day.




haha i tried doing that at the start, i.e. aiming for a daily target. i learnt my lesson when i was holding onto a short term winner that was short a few dollars. i knew it was going to turn. I held on. i lost about 3 months in one go. 

you are very accurate about expectancy of the trades, you can go broke taking profits. ive experienced it first hand when i was starting out in futures.


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## tech/a

> hahaha he obviously invested at the start of a bull market. In that case, if he didnt sell at the right time, im supposing his net worth would be ... the same as it was 6 years ago less inflation..  good idea on paper though




1991
Was the first to introduce me to the Stock Market.
Was a pretty wealthy guy---I just liked the idea but have never done it.
Lost track of him in 1996


If you think about it a bit you'd realise that to lose the stock he had at free trade would have to be delisted.


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## ivant

tech/a said:


> 1991
> Was the first to introduce me to the Stock Market.
> Was a pretty wealthy guy---I just liked the idea but have never done it.
> Lost track of him in 1996
> 
> 
> If you think about it a bit you'd realise that to lose the stock he had at free trade would have to be delisted.




Haha I do realise that it would need to be delisted. However, you have to remember that he would get stopped out at losses too. And after the effect of inflation, he would most likely end up close to break-even.

Let me explain, you hold 10 stocks (evenly spread capital) that you bought at $5 each. Over the course of the next 5 years you only have 5 left (due to those being stopped out) and they are worth $10. Five years later, you get out the capital you invested (on which you lost 5 years worth of inflation). If the stocks decline 80-90% over the next 2 years (like many did in the US), your are in a bit of trouble, because once again, after the effect of inflation, you are somewhere close to ground zero. Of course there are many variables that would need to be known to argue either successfully, but my point is that for this strategy to succeed and be effective, you need to rely on knowing when bull markets start, and bear markets end. In that case, it works very well because you make a lot of money.


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## nunthewiser

tech/a said:


> *Simple solution.*
> 
> Let a % of the profit ride.
> 
> I know of a trader who 's strategy was to keep kis winners until they reached 100% or were stopped out.
> Those that reached 100% he would sell the initial capital value and hold the rest as a free trade with a wider fixed stop.
> 
> Over 6 yrs he had 30 in his stable and if he needed cash would just sell a handfull of the worst performing stock.




has used this as one strategy succesfully for years , in fact i still do . currently sitting on SBM free ride after removing capital and held EXT free ride until finally selling last of my holdings at 4.29 ..... i have no complaints with it and find it a nice risk free strategy to riding ones winners whilst providing a liquid capital base for the next prospective mover and shaker .

each to there own


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## tech/a

ivant said:


> Haha I do realise that it would need to be delisted. However, you have to remember that he would get stopped out at losses too. And after the effect of inflation, he would most likely end up close to break-even.
> 
> Let me explain, you hold 10 stocks (evenly spread capital) that you bought at $5 each. Over the course of the next 5 years you only have 5 left (due to those being stopped out) and they are worth $10. Five years later, you get out the capital you invested (on which you lost 5 years worth of inflation). If the stocks decline 80-90% over the next 2 years (like many did in the US), your are in a bit of trouble, because once again, after the effect of inflation, you are somewhere close to ground zero. Of course there are many variables that would need to be known to argue either successfully, but my point is that for this strategy to succeed and be effective, you need to rely on knowing when bull markets start, and bear markets end. In that case, it works very well because you make a lot of money.




Anyone can put up an argument for a scenario of failure.

As I said he widened his stop and if I remember rightly he used 25% of the last high.
So he would only be risking 25% of his free trade.
I'm sure you or I could come up with an even better management method if we worked on it.


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## beerwm

I dont really get the whole "position trade" argument,
-ie. sell initial capital and have a free ride.

sure you can tell yourself that it is 'won' money, but it is still YOUR money. and if you lose it.. you still lose it.

there is an expectancy when you decide to sell off the initial stake, and by keeping the stake/or selling off some, you're hurting you're overall gain in the longrun.

you're just selling/not selling yourself out of $$$.


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## beamstas

beerwm said:


> I dont really get the whole "position trade" argument,
> -ie. sell initial capital and have a free ride.
> 
> sure you can tell yourself that it is 'won' money, but it is still YOUR money. and if you lose it.. you still lose it.
> 
> there is an expectancy when you decide to sell off the initial stake, and by keeping the stake/or selling off some, you're hurting you're overall gain in the longrun.
> 
> you're just selling/not selling yourself out of $$$.




Not really

You buy 100 $5 shares ($500)
They go to $10 each ($1000)

You sell off 50 shares @ $10 each and get your $500 back
You now have 50 shares and your initial capital back to trade aonther lot of shares

You are not understanding that you are lowering your risk. Even though the potential profit is smaller, your risk is 0. If the shares fall back to $5 you get 10*50 + 5*50 = $750. If you are holding the whole lot and they fall back to $5 you get 100*50 = $500. (of course they would't go all the way back because you'd be using a stop... but you are still in front if you sell half your position). 

Think about it like this. Would you argue pyramiding positions is bad? By your argument you'd say it's not good because the potential profit is larger if you don't pyramid and instead you just buy the whole position in one lot. But with pyramiding the risk is alot lower.

Ideally, you want to be trading with the lowest risk for the highest reward. If you sell half your position, you achive that.

Brad


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## nomore4s

beerwm said:


> I dont really get the whole "position trade" argument,
> -ie. sell initial capital and have a free ride.
> 
> sure you can tell yourself that it is 'won' money, but it is still YOUR money. and if you lose it.. you still lose it.
> 
> there is an expectancy when you decide to sell off the initial stake, and by keeping the stake/or selling off some, you're hurting you're overall gain in the longrun.
> 
> you're just selling/not selling yourself out of $$$.




What Beamstas said but I'd also add it becomes easier to hold the stock for longer.
Look at stocks like PDN in the last bullmarket - if you brought in at 15c sold half at 30c it would have be easier to hold the shares to $9 as you are not so worried about the swings in price because in theory you have a risk free trade. That's how my little mind works anyway


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## tech/a

Thats the whole point.
holding a trade for as long as it keeps 75% of its latest high.
If another trade becomes aparent then trade it.
If you add another 100% position then do so.

You could do it with 25% increase in equity---hell there are 1000s of variations.

I didnt present the idea as the "Ducks guts" just something different.


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## jonnycage

more power to you mate for doing the trading as your income stream, im just starting to put that dream of mine together.  letting go of that 8 to 6
life couldnt come sooner!
jc


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## ivant

tech/a said:


> Thats the whole point.
> holding a trade for as long as it keeps 75% of its latest high.
> If another trade becomes aparent then trade it.
> If you add another 100% position then do so.
> 
> You could do it with 25% increase in equity---hell there are 1000s of variations.
> 
> I didnt present the idea as the "Ducks guts" just something different.




that one point changes a very large part of this strategy. i refer to the "keeping 75% of its latest high".

That turns into into a very decent strategy. It is simple, and effective. I still argue that timing is important, but you are essentially getting a lot of meat out of a trade. There are definitely no arguments about risk, as long as you get to the 100% return and dont get stopped out. For example, an entry somewhere around now, ie this year, after the lows get retested, or maybe after at least some pullback, the strategy could very well prove to make a lot of money. Although, if I was trading this I'd probably not even sell the initial stake, and just hold on until the stock starts trending downwards. You are not risking initial capital anyway, provided you do sell when it starts falling from its lows. Ie, if you bought Macquarie at 15 you would get 100% today, asit hit 30. if it falls from here 25%, you will sell it off at 22 1/2, still closing out at a profit and not risking your initial capital. Too bad I sold my MQG last week, otherwise I would have tried this strategy.


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## carmen

Family_Guy said:


> My strategy is pretty simple. My goal is/was to feed the family. With no debts i worked that out to about $150/day (5 day week).
> So i thought, throw 10 or 20k at something, pull it out as quick as possible for a quick small profit, get up and go do some housework (or whateva)
> 
> It's worked a treat so far. Lost some dollars along the way, but done pretty well since going head first in April 08.
> 
> But just lately it's gone pear shaped. Not as in lost money. You see, i bought a couple of what i thought were well oversold stocks, in particular AIO and MRE and in Jan it was ESG, BRM etc. Sold out as quick as i could and was very happy at the outcome. But less than a week after selling all, all doubled in price and i wasnt there.
> 
> So OK, i turn 20 into 26, but it could have been 20 into 40.......see my problem?
> 
> Someone told me once before i started trading to set goals and to stick to them. Should i be changing goals or just be happy i ain't sitting here in socks only??




I did literally the same thing with BHP, RIo, Pac Brands, Goodman in the recent bounce. Overall made 20% in a month but killing myself over Alesco. Bought in around $1. price didnt do much for a while so I sold out for immaterial profit/loss (cant remember). Literally next day they soared now up around 200%. I am putting it to lack of experience since this was my first 'dip in the water' so to speak.


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## Family_Guy

beamstas said:


> Yeah
> And he wants to make $150 a day ~250 days a year
> Thats $37,500 a year
> 
> IMO you'd either need to be *really good* to make $37,500 EVERY YEAR if you trade off only having $20,000.
> 
> Also because that $37,500 a year is on expenses, you are effectively having a $0 capital growth. So you need to produce amazing results year in year out just to keep food on the table.




I agree on that part. But I'm doing *up to* $20k trades. I have 15times that in my trading account made up of cash/stocks. GG mentioned the greed word and thats it, it's a greed thing, that human nature in all of us. I'm a simple man, i don't do this to become as rich as possible or whateva, i do it so i dont have to work. If i can pay my household bills then that makes me happy. But the whole point is i have been selling recently, and they all run. It was giving me the you know what's last week until the greed word was used. I think my system is safe because as a novice, if i got greedy i'd probably lose the lot.

I do like the idea of keeping a few of each trade as a little side earner and i'll work on that and see if i can include with what i am already doing.

Cheers for all your replies.


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## ivant

im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!


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## beamstas

ivant said:


> im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!




250 fold for the year

So lets say you started with $10,000
Your account would now be $2,500,000

Bull


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## beerwm

ivant said:


> im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!




250 fold in 4 months, haha

thats a trading claim i'd like substantiated

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15129


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## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!




 mmmmmmm can this post be moved to the "TRADING CLAIMS "thread please 



but hey man im impressed , where do i sign ?


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## Timmy

ivant said:


> im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!




Keep going!


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## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!




HOW???????????????????????????????????????????

I think you said your a futs trader that means in 4 months you have taken 50,000 odd ticks per contract?


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## ivant

Lol i meant for the financial year. 1500 in july, over 550k at this rate...

futures trading spi 200 and crude. i trade in 20-40 lots depending on how confident i am on the SPI, and usually about 5-10 barrels in crude, depending on how confident i am. i trade different strategies though. 

i take usually around about 200-250 per trade, but that all depends on the trade. eg i started going long lightly in the 3500 a few months ago, and had most of my positions enter at 3200. i sold out at 3750. so most of my contracts made around about 400-500 points. 

most of my money came in october and november last year and made close to nothing between december and feb.


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## cutz

Wow that sounds pretty impressive ivant, do you trade on your own account or do you work for a firm? How many years have you been in the game? 

Sorry if you have already mentioned this, I’ve haven’t been through this thread.


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## beamstas

So you started with $1500 in july and now have $550,000

Give me your phone number and i'll give you my password to every trading account i have opened and you can trade them for me

If you keep at this pace your 550k will be $201,300,000 in 9 months time, and in 18 months time you should have $73,675,800,000 ie: the richest man in the world

Brad


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## cutz

Ease up you guys, he must have the vibe.


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## ivant

Oh my friend I wish that I have been trading 250 fold every year!! love to see myself wipeout next year  haha. Unfortunately as size increases risk decreases. Then you have issues with liquidity. Then you volatility will ease off. Its been a great year for a short seller.

I have started paper trading when i was 13. traded my parents SMSF, didnt do too badly opened an account on my 18th bday. then went to futures 07 and tried everything under the planet. metastock was working overtime at that point when i tried to get a strategy. it was in late 07 i found something that worked ok, in terms of oversold/overbought indicators (that are about to die off, as soon as we hit a bull).

guys, dont get me wrong, i dont mean to brag and tell you how great i am. i do what i do because i love it. i told you that to underscore the point that increased risk can lead to increased results. and that sometimes it pays off to be risking more than 50% of your account size. i was trading over 100% of what i had on some trades. at the start of the year i also had a loan that i was paying off so technically i was going for broke at some points.


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## nunthewiser

personally think ya pulling yaself 

no offense intended

gotta love simulators


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## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> personally think ya pulling yaself
> 
> no offense intended
> 
> gotta love simulators




i havent simulated since i turned 17.

you dont have to believe me man. really.. you dont. and im not going to go through the effort of proving myself. this isnt the point of a) this post b) this forum.

as i understand it, its a point of gathering where beginners seek help, and the more experienced get it. i think that people should concentrate on their trading first. 

for your information ill be happy with 5-6 fold for next year.


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## skc

ivant said:


> Lol i meant for the financial year. 1500 in july, over 550k at this rate...
> 
> futures trading spi 200 and crude. i trade in 20-40 lots depending on how confident i am on the SPI, and usually about 5-10 barrels in crude, depending on how confident i am. i trade different strategies though.
> 
> i take usually around about 200-250 per trade, but that all depends on the trade. eg i started going long lightly in the 3500 a few months ago, and had most of my positions enter at 3200. i sold out at 3750. so most of my contracts made around about 400-500 points.
> 
> most of my money came in october and november last year and made close to nothing between december and feb.




For a guy who trades 20-40 lots can you explain why you seem awefully interested in micro lots offered by Go Markets!?



ivant said:


> wow thats pretty good. what is their commission? I'm completely moving to futures now, but it was interesting to see someone offer less than a 2 point spread. I was considering them as a broker for futures actually. IB seems better for me, but I am still in the research stage.
> 
> What are they like? Good feed? Platform seems ok from the demo.




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14953


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## Cartman

ivant said:


> i havent simulated since i turned 17.
> 
> you dont have to believe me man. really.. you dont. and im not going to go through the effort of proving myself. this isnt the point of a) this post b) this forum.





ivant,  M8, i got roasted for making a couple of grand on an FX account ---- what chance do you think you've got of making people believe your claims lol 

seriously though --- if you started with $1500, how the heck did you ever get up to holding between 20-40 contracts?  Which provider gives that kind of leverage ?? --- you would have had to risk the lot on every trade in the beginning, and never have a losing trade for about a squillion trades --- or am i missing something?

it appears SKC beat me to it  lol ----


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## beamstas

ivant said:


> i havent simulated since i turned 17.
> 
> you dont have to believe me man. really.. you dont. and im not going to go through the effort of proving myself. this isnt the point of a) this post b) this forum.
> 
> as i understand it, its a point of gathering where beginners seek help, and the more experienced get it. i think that people should concentrate on their trading first.
> 
> for your information ill be happy with 5-6 fold for next year.





So you'll be happy with 500% a year gain
And this year you have gained 25,000%

Yeah.. Right..

Mate come back here when you've actually made a trade and realise that those numbers just arn't realistic

If you are going to come here and make stuff up like being up 250 fold for the year, at least make the effort to make things believable

"Im young so i can risk alot"
Age makes no difference. Trading like you are saying will wipe you out in a matter of minutes.. if you are lucky hours

Brad


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## skc

Cartman said:


> ivant,  M8, i got roasted for making a couple of grand on an FX account ---- what chance do you think you've got of making people believe your claims lol
> 
> seriously though --- if you started with $1500, how the heck did you ever get up to holding between 20-40 contracts?  Which provider gives that kind of leverage ?? --- you would have had to risk the lot on every trade in the beginning, and never have a losing trade for about a squillion trades --- or am i missing something?
> 
> it appears SKC beat me to it  lol ----




Cartman, you are so narrow minded! Let me show you how it can be done.

In this financial year, the SPI has gone from ~5000 down to 3200 back up to 3800. That's a range total of 2500 points. Starting with $1500, ivant can trade 1 $5 mini lot on IG markets. For every additional lot he wishes to trade, he needs to make $1000 profit. 

From 1 lot to 2 lots, he only need to capture 200 points (within the 2500 points range).
From 2 lots to 3 lots, it takes another 100 points.
From 3 to 4, 66 points.
From 4 to 5, 50 points.
From 5 to 6, 40 points.
From 6 to 7, 33 points.
From 7 to 8, 25 points.

Follow this logic through and ivant can trade 40 contracts by compounding and capturing *only *~1200 points of the full range. 

Can you now see how EASILY this can be done? In fact, I am disappointed that he's only earned $550k.


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## beamstas

skc said:


> Can you now see how EASILY this can be done? In fact, I am disappointed that he's only earned $550k.




Yeah. If he was a good trader he would of picked every top and every bottom
He should of made over $1,100,000

Good traders don't make even one losing trade


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## MRC & Co

ivant said:


> 1500 in july, over 550k *at this rate...*
> 
> i take usually around about 200-250 per trade, but that all depends on the trade. eg i* started going long lightly in the 3500 a few months ago, and had most of my positions enter at 3200*. i sold out at 3750. so most of my contracts made around about 400-500 points.




Think skc post at the top of this page says the lot, then add in how you would start going long at 3500 and average down to 3200, with 20-40 lots and work out the money you would need in the account...........


----------



## ivant

wow, i cannot believe im the centre of attention on this now. in terms of making trades, read my blog, ive said what i traded before it occured. 

i am sadly nowhere near good enough to pick perfect tops and bottoms, i was lucky enough to once sell just before market tanked, to the point. having said that i have missed way too many trades and have made very very bad misses. to the extent that when my stake was smaller between end of 07 and middle of 08 i did get washed out a few times. i did start with ig markets and still am there, keeping just under 200k there (between 2 accounts). and you are correct, i risked over 100% at times. yes im not proud of that anymore, and thus the point of posting at the start in here telling you what kind of a return you can do if you risk your face off. 

in terms of mini lots, i was interested in the spread. id love to cut down spread to 1 point, and a lot of mini lots equal full lots. plus i do apologise when i said 20-30 lots, i did mean up to 50 mini lots(1/5ths) spread over 2 accounts. which means up to 10 full contracts, although i do confess i have went over at times.

it would be nice if you guys did stop attacking me, as if i have made a crime and how about this, for past trades check out my blog, for the future, lets see how we go. im currently short the SPI 200 with 26 contracts in one account with an average entry of 3727 on which im down just a touch over 10k and on my second im shorting 18 with an average 3735. down on that 6.3k. if the market doesnt gap down, i may add a few more to the downside. 

in terms of crude, i dont mention it in my blog, because its a relatively small trade that i do. i have nothing in at the moment and will start shorting around the 53 mark and going long around 40. if there is a trade i make at 53 i will close out at 49 and if there is a trade at 40 i will see then. 

lastly, age does matter. the reason it does is because if i go bankrupt i can always work it right back. although now i guess i dont think so much anymore, it was the reasoning behind me risking over 100% on some trades. 

on a side note, i am very amazed at how people responded to that actually. i will underline once more that the point of that post was to underscore the fact that you can make a lot of money (relative to initial investment) when risking a lot more than under a percent or five or whatever, and that it can work. having said that, i dont recommend doing so, and probably would recommend starting with a stake of more than 10k.


----------



## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> Think skc post at the top of this page says the lot, then add in how you would start going long at 3500 and average down to 3200, with 20-40 lots and work out the money you would need in the account...........




i didnt average it down, i said most of my positions entered around there..

oh and for this here we go.... straight from the history thing in IG markets for last 90days:

EAL	Closing trades	08/04/09	CJRHVTAH	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5236	$	-2	4899	$3,370.00
DEAL	Closing trades	08/04/09	CJW7HHAG	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5193	$	-1	4899	$1,470.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CAF5ULAC	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3184.5	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,575.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CAKX5HAE	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3171.5	A$	+2	3699.5	A$5,280.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	B6UXM6AK	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3395.5	A$	+3	3699.5	A$4,560.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CAF4ZGAK	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3184.5	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,575.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	BX24ZVAE	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3495	A$	+3	3699.5	A$3,067.50
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	B9Q3G7AD	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3290	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,047.50
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	B9Q3HSAD	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3285	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,072.50
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	BWZ5TPAA	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3549	A$	+5	3699.5	A$3,762.50
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CHMCQ6AJ	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5033	$	+1	5012	$-105.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CHM9L6AB	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5030	$	+1	5007	$-115.00
DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CHQJ4CAJ	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	4845	$	+2	5002	$1,570.00
DEAL	Closing trades	30/03/09	CFVMTGAB	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5350	$	-1	5049	$1,505.00
DEAL	Closing trades	30/03/09	CEHMJJAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	4945	$	-1	5049	$-520.00
DEAL	Closing trades	30/03/09	CEC34EAK	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	4920	$	-1	5049	$-645.00
DEAL	Closing trades	28/03/09	CFVPJLAH	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5350	$	-1	5195	$775.00
DEAL	Closing trades	13/03/09	CC66LKAE	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4271	$	+1	4628	$1,785.00
DEAL	Closing trades	03/03/09	B9EU6NAJ	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4373	$	-1	4171	$1,010.00
DEAL	Closing trades	26/02/09	B6MTECAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4100	$	+1	4210	$550.00
DEAL	Closing trades	26/02/09	B6RQWQAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4000	$	+1	4210	$1,050.00
DEAL	Closing trades	26/02/09	B6RAXGAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4050	$	+1	4210	$800.00
DEAL	Closing trades	28/01/09	BYE2YFAG	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3410.5	A$	+2	3497	A$865.00
DEAL	Closing trades	28/01/09	BYEYSBAC	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3410.5	A$	+5	3498	A$2,187.50
DEAL	Closing trades	20/01/09	BX35SWAE	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3451	A$	+5	3523.5	A$1,812.50

then the next

DEAL  Closing trades 16/04/09 CLNRWNAP US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5183 $ -2  4904 $2,790.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 08/04/09 CKC434AE US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5311 $ -1  4899 $2,060.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 CHTXQ5AF Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3556 A$ +3  3697.5 A$2,122.50 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q4DMAL Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +2  3697.5 A$4,125.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BW8PQSAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3493.5 A$ +3  3698.5 A$3,075.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BWWMQYAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3559.5 A$ +4  3698.5 A$2,780.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q4DMAL Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +3  3698.5 A$6,202.50 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B6U3ABAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3397.5 A$ +4  3698.5 A$6,020.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBUGCAF Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3680 A$ +2  3698.5 A$185.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBTW2AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3685.5 A$ +6  3698.5 A$390.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBXKAAM Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3681 A$ +2  3698.5 A$175.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B6X5JDAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3388 A$ +1  3698.5 A$1,552.50 
DEAL  Closing trades 30/03/09 CFVHEUAB US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5340 $ -1  5120 $1,100.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 27/01/09 GRK252 Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3310 A$ +1  3420 A$550.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 27/01/09 GRK27M Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3310 A$ +5  3420 A$2,750.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 08/01/09 BTSCGWAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3699.5 A$ -10  3685.5 A$700.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 08/01/09 BTYN76AM Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3764 A$ -7  3685.5 A$2,747.50 
DEAL  Closing trades 01/01/09 BS6YMSAD US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAR-09 3999 $ +2  4524 $5,250.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 01/01/09 BS6Z29AM US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAR-09 3972 $ +1  4522 $2,750.00 
DEAL  Closing trades 23/12/08 GQ54GD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)  - 3791.5 A$ +5  3580 A$-5,287.50 
DEAL  Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5  3791.5 A$7,287.50 
DEAL  Closing trades 22/12/08 BSHM3XAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3635.5 A$ -5  3554 A$2,037.50 

is that enough for you children?


----------



## ivant

lastly looking at that ive obviously started going long in the 3680


----------



## Trembling Hand

There you go boys,

Big picture + big Balls = Big Profit.


You would be better concentrating on keeping it ivant. no need to blow MM now as you can swing decent size. by they way why the hell trade CFDs not the futs??


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> There you go boys,
> 
> Big picture + big Balls = Big Profit.
> 
> 
> You would be better concentrating on keeping it ivant. no need to blow MM now as you can swing decent size. by they way why the hell trade CFDs not the futs??




actually thats what i ask myself for a while. im looking at a few brokers at the moment. im not sure if i should go with mf global, sonray, go markets or macquarie. the other one im looking at is IB. i dont know, ive been researching since feb. ive got an account with sonray, i dont know if i like them too much. i trade oil on there, and then lightly do it on ig as well (i like the mobile checking at night or when im not at home). for SPI though, the liquidity seems to be pretty low in the evening sessions. any clues?

in terms of keeping it, yea, thus id like to start cutting down on risk. in fact i trade very differently now as opposed to what i did when my account was very small. unfortunately balls shrink with age, and so do the returns. lol


----------



## MRC & Co

Congrats Ivant, no attack here, only questioning based on figures which would potentially superceed the greatest gain on a person account in one year ever recorded.

If you did it and with that kind of trading, then you are the next Mr Livermoore!  

Like I said before though, I respect your knowledge and opinions on trading, I'm with you on the shorts too!  

Good luck!


----------



## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> Congrats Ivant, no attack here, only questioning based on figures which would potentially superceed the greatest gain on a person account in one year ever recorded.
> 
> If you did it and with that kind of trading, then you are the next Mr Livermoore!
> 
> Like I said before though, I respect your knowledge and opinions on trading, I'm with you on the shorts too!
> 
> Good luck!




oh my friend, i think mr livermoore would laugh at my MM haha. what i said and showed is only numbers. whats that famous phrase, that you find on all hedge funds and ponzi schemes: past results are not indicative of future returns? i dont know anywhere near as much about the markets as id hope, and i am nowhere near good enough to pick perfect bottoms. in that trade i was going long right about where the market started dropping. what saved me was position sizing. van tharps favourite thing  lets hope the shorts come through in the next few weeks. what are your targets? think we can get a retest in this move or is it seeming it will be closer to october?


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> actually thats what i ask myself for a while. im looking at a few brokers at the moment. im not sure if i should go with mf global, sonray, go markets or macquarie. the other one im looking at is IB. i dont know, ive been researching since feb. ive got an account with sonray, i dont know if i like them too much. i trade oil on there, and then lightly do it on ig as well (i like the mobile checking at night or when im not at home). for SPI though, the liquidity seems to be pretty low in the evening sessions. any clues?
> 
> in terms of keeping it, yea, thus id like to start cutting down on risk. in fact i trade very differently now as opposed to what i did when my account was very small. unfortunately balls shrink with age, and so do the returns. lol




Macquarie is good, i would recommend them. However, i only use them for shares.

You should save 400k and use 150k for trading. Capital preservation eh...


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Macquarie is good, i would recommend them. However, i only use them for shares.
> 
> You should save 400k and use 150k for trading. Capital preservation eh...




is the live feed expensive? unfortunately i cant preserve all. tax time is coming around  im not looking forward to that


----------



## MRC & Co

Na, Mr Livermoore wiped himself out plenty of times and with HUGE sums of $$$.

I reckon 3500s, then perhaps a rest and a test of 3300s.  After that, not exactly sure.  We could end up in a messy range from here for some time, with a lot of false signals, looking for the trends, whereas buying anything near 3000s and selling anything near 3800s may be the way to go.......just one option.


----------



## Cartman

Cartman said:


> *seriously though* --- if you started with $1500, how the heck did you ever get up to holding between 20-40 contracts?






ivant said:


> accounts). . plus i do apologise when i said 20-30 lots, *i did mean up to 50 mini lots*(1/5ths) spread over 2 accounts. which means up to 10 full contracts, although i do confess i have went over at times.





i confess that i was skeptical, but my question was legitimate based on the info you had given -----  

compounding X high risk+ a dash of good fortune is powerful stuff --- forget the ballz of steel ---- more like ballz of cryptonite  

i'll go and extract my foot from my mouth now


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> is the live feed expensive? unfortunately i cant preserve all. tax time is coming around  im not looking forward to that




You've just made 550k and you're asking about the live feed. Lol.

No, there is an ASX Royalty fee of $41.25, which is rebated after a certain monthly brok. spend. You would achieve that easily by the sounds of it.

By the way, may i ask: what were your overnight holding costs like (per night figure would be good) when you held SPI 200 and crude for days and weeks on end?

I'm thinking medium terms is the way to go, provided you have the "balls" to hold. Yes, balls of steel are definately in order .


----------



## ivant

Cartman said:


> i confess that i was skeptical, but my question was legitimate based on the info you had given -----
> 
> compounding X high risk+ a dash of good fortune is powerful stuff --- forget the ballz of steel ---- more like ballz of cryptonite
> 
> i'll go and extract my foot from my mouth now




hahaha no its cool. the trade2win forum had something similar to this a year back or so, and it was funny because the guy turned out to be a kid. although he didnt have reference numbers to prove trades lol. the thing is ill say it again, i didnt mean to brag at all (in fact i actually didnt think it was bragging material with such high leverage), it was to prove a point.   

luck played a big part lol. i can tell you a load of stories!! haha. 



Aussiest said:


> You've just made 550k and you're asking about the live feed. Lol.
> 
> No, there is an ASX Royalty fee of $41.25, which is rebated after a certain monthly brok. spend. You would achieve that easily by the sounds of it.
> 
> By the way, may i ask: what were your overnight holding costs like (per night figure would be good) when you held SPI 200 and crude for days and weeks on end?
> 
> I'm thinking medium terms is the way to go, provided you have the "balls" to hold. Yes, balls of steel are definately in order .




well in reference to this, yea i think thats what most brokers offer, the rebate. lol it was funny i remember running around, wasting about an hour to find a secondhand textbook to save 60 bucks, the same day went out with my gf at the time for dinner and spent about 200 lol. i like to keep commissions down (so ironic when the crude spread is close to 20cents at times), however if the platform is good, its worth the money. i did actually mean the whole platform fee, the monthly cost, but i didnt express myself too well. 

in reference to holding costs, ig markets doesnt charge at all for crude (as i think it is for all futures? would be great if someone confirmed), and for spi shorts they give you interest. the odd one is the dividends. if you are short you pay and if you are long you receive. i think that most of the big companies have given their mid year divs so it wont be charged too much over the course of the year. when i was long the spi they charged about 100 a day (including weekends) for holding 30 mini-contracts (based on one of my accounts). back in the day when LIBOR was really high, it was a lot more, but at the moment its pretty steady. based on that same account i have 18 short there and get $10 a day in interest. ig is so fair 

in terms of balls of steal/cryptonite/uranium or anything else, id love to hope so haha. its more stubbornness.


----------



## Nero64

> DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 GQ54GD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3791.5 A$ +5 3580 A$-5,287.50




Hi Ivan,

That's a nasty draw down.

Do you use stops or just range trade and terminate when the loss gets too painful.

Also how did you setup two IG Markets accounts, don't you need ID for each new account. Do you hedge using both accounts. 

When trading the Cash do you use graphs with TA support and resistance levels or do you just read the ticks. 

I used to trade the SPI and cash. I spent hour upon hour studying it.  Favourite part was the afternoon rally and I would pyramid. Problem was those afternoon rally's stopped but my trading psychology didn't change and I couldn't adapt quickly enough to what was happening in the US.

When trading the Indicies in Sept/Oct last year. The volatility was so great it was impossible to trade. Especially if holding the Futures over night. Out of the blue the market would gap 50 points and your stop triiggered or some news would just break out in the US and UK and in 5 secs you go from being profitable to being in a losing position.


----------



## ivant

Nero64 said:


> Hi Ivan,
> 
> That's a nasty draw down.
> 
> Do you use stops or just range trade and terminate when the loss gets too painful.
> 
> Also how did you setup two IG Markets accounts, don't you need ID for each new account. Do you hedge using both accounts.
> 
> When trading the Cash do you use graphs with TA support and resistance levels or do you just read the ticks.
> 
> I used to trade the SPI and cash. I spent hour upon hour studying it.  Favourite part was the afternoon rally and I would pyramid. Problem was those afternoon rally's stopped but my trading psychology didn't change and I couldn't adapt quickly enough to what was happening in the US.




yea it is nasty on paper. i use an aggregate position, and i position size in a way that i add heavily at very serious support levels. at the end of that trade i sold of the position receiving an overall profit, which is in the above. i set up two accounts a long time ago when you were allowed to do it freely. it was done at a time so that i could survive shocks to my margin, and it saved me a few times. do you mean do i hedge against the two accounts, ie put in opposite entries? in that sense no, they both work together. i used to trade around my losses, ie "force entries" however ive stopped doing that. i have a range of things i follow in no order of importance:
1. chande's momentum 
2. macd
3. rsi in a small way
4. a price oscilliator
5. then i look for confirmations in support and resistance. i dont trade it if i dont see all these coming together for a reversal. 
6. i look for particular psychological movements in the price
7. moving averages, statistical changes, stocks above averages, etc.

thats basically it, i look at FTSE, DJIA, S&P 500, gold and oil and try to analyse them together based on a combination of the above. then something springs in my head telling me to buy or sell which usually overrides all of the above.. haha. like a puzzle that comes together. it seems so easy to explain how i trade, yet its so hard to put it on paper. amazing. 

lastly, of course, i listen to CNBC's Cramer every night  "I would have a million dollars by now if id have listened to CNBC, provided id have started with 100" - Jon stewart  im sorry i had to put that in 

on a more serious note, i spend more time looking at the US market then the Australian market. at the moment ive found that the volatility is greater in the overnight swings than the daily. there is a post somewhere where i outline my trading day. it has no structure lol.


----------



## ivant

Nero64 said:


> When trading the Indicies in Sept/Oct last year. The volatility was so great it was impossible to trade. Especially if holding the Futures over night. Out of the blue the market would gap 50 points and your stop triiggered or some news would just break out in the US and UK and in 5 secs you go from being profitable to being in a losing position.




based on that edit too, as above, i was up all night throughout most of october and november. i essentially traded the US indices mentally more than the Australian ones despite trading solely SPIs physically. i think at this rate the news from US are much more price-sensitive then the aussie ones.


----------



## ivant

oh and by the way, i realised i didnt answer the question about stops, i dont use stops due to the nature of CFD providers creating spikes


----------



## Nero64

> due to the nature of CFD providers creating spikes




Yeah I agree with you about the spikes. I read on this forum that IG started as a bucket shop, nothing has changed. Market makers Know both sides of the buy and sell orders and they are out to make money. 



> i dont use stops




I suppose if  you have a huge capital base you don't need stops provided the positions are not big, but tell this to the person going long on the ASX 200 at 5950 last May or long on the AUS/USD at 98c. 

Range trading is always dangerous even in quiet times and after the US voted down the bailout the first time, the market fell 400-500 points in a 6 hour period. I didn't think my 450 point stop loss would get hit, but it did.


----------



## skc

Since the great men TH and MRC & Co AND sanity-debated Cartman all seem to accept the trading claims, all I can say is.

Ivan, you are one BIG SWINGING DICK. (This is not a personal attack http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=big swinging dick) 


_
"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; truth isn't." _Mark Twain


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant out of all the "brokers" you have mentioned ONLY IB & MFGlobal will let you trade the SPI. They are the only brokers.

The rest are CFDs, *Just hideously expensive*!! 

Mate puts some money away, drop your size, pay your tax and use this time to actually learn about the markets. You are in a unique position don't waste it.


----------



## Real1ty

voyz said:


> lucky goats...


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> ig markets doesnt charge at all for crude (as i think it is for all futures? would be great if someone confirmed), and for spi shorts they give you interest.




Ivant,

How have you found IG Markets? I am debating between that one and IB.

Btw, there is no monthly charge for Macquarie. If you want to trade shares, it's a great platform.


----------



## beamstas

Still havn't seen evidence of an account increasing $1500 to $550,000


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aussiest said:


> How have you found IG Markets? I am debating between that one and IB.



I don't understand how the two can be compared 


beamstas said:


> Still havn't seen evidence of an account increasing $1500 to $550,000




Yes ya right. the cut and paste trades could of been just as likely from their demo platform?? But anyway I will move on.


----------



## Aussiest

In relation to IG vs IB: 







Trembling Hand said:


> I don't understand how the two can be compared




For a start, the funds are held at ANZ with IG.

But, i'm interested in the spreads, availability of contracts / shares vs. CFDs (not too keen, but may use for Futures). I guess brokerage is lower with IB and perhaps interest rates higher with IB? (haven't researched yet).

If you care to elaborate, i would be happy to listen!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aussiest said:


> In relation to IG vs IB:
> 
> For a start, the funds are held at ANZ with IG.
> 
> But, i'm interested in the spreads, availability of contracts / shares vs. CFDs (not too keen, but may use for Futures). I guess brokerage is lower with IB and perhaps interest rates higher with IB? (haven't researched yet).
> 
> If you care to elaborate, i would be happy to listen!




CFDs are the most expensive way to trade. CFD spreads are bigger, you have to buy/sell at market, you have to pay interest and on and on.

IB have far more protection of client funds than IG or any other MM.


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Ivant,
> 
> How have you found IG Markets? I am debating between that one and IB.
> 
> Btw, there is no monthly charge for Macquarie. If you want to trade shares, it's a great platform.




IG markets is ok, but its a market maker. i like their platform and the charts are ok, but obviously its a CFD provider thus its a little dodgy. thanks for the tip on the macquarie platform 



beamstas said:


> Still havn't seen evidence of an account increasing $1500 to $550,000




should i just call you a moron now? what would you like me to do, cut my guts out? i really dont have time to prove what i have or havent done. 



Trembling Hand said:


> I don't understand how the two can be compared
> 
> 
> Yes ya right. the cut and paste trades could of been just as likely from their demo platform?? But anyway I will move on.




haha they have a time limit on the platform if im not mistaken. that was 90 days, so i dont think that id have the patience to sit there for 90 days.



Aussiest said:


> In relation to IG vs IB:
> 
> For a start, the funds are held at ANZ with IG.
> 
> But, i'm interested in the spreads, availability of contracts / shares vs. CFDs (not too keen, but may use for Futures). I guess brokerage is lower with IB and perhaps interest rates higher with IB? (haven't researched yet).
> 
> If you care to elaborate, i would be happy to listen!




they used to westpac when i started trading  the spreads are horribly, there are a lot of different instruments (a little lacking on the commodities though), however a lot of different stock exchanges. commissions are good for stocks, alas i dont trade them. When you say IB though, I don't recall them having CFD's?



Trembling Hand said:


> CFDs are the most expensive way to trade. CFD spreads are bigger, you have to buy/sell at market, you have to pay interest and on and on.
> 
> IB have far more protection of client funds than IG or any other MM.



in terms of expense its definitely a factor. the spreads are so high. the more contracts you trade the higher the difference. TH do you trade through IB?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> TH do you trade through IB?




yep


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> yep




i guess you recommend it then  i was leaning towards them. i didnt like the feel of sonray and gomarkets, and mf seemed to be a little exp on the commission side. i think i have decided on who ill go with


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> i guess you recommend it then  i was leaning towards them. i didnt like the feel of *sonray and gomarkets*, and mf seemed to be a little exp on the commission side. i think i have decided on who ill go with




I am just gobsmacked at people always comparing a futures broker, IB & MF, to the likes of the rubbish you have listed above.


----------



## nomore4s

Trembling Hand said:


> I am just gobsmacked at people always comparing a futures broker, IB & MF, to the likes of the rubbish you have listed above.




I don't think most of them understand the difference TH, even though it has been pointed out numerous times.


----------



## ivant

haha it doesnt hurt to look at the options, especially when there are so few in Australia  i do agree though. they seem to be rather weak in comparison.


----------



## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> i didnt average it down, i said most of my positions entered around there..
> 
> oh and for this here we go.... straight from the history thing in IG markets for last 90days:
> 
> EAL	Closing trades	08/04/09	CJRHVTAH	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5236	$	-2	4899	$3,370.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	08/04/09	CJW7HHAG	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5193	$	-1	4899	$1,470.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CAF5ULAC	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3184.5	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,575.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CAKX5HAE	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3171.5	A$	+2	3699.5	A$5,280.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	B6UXM6AK	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3395.5	A$	+3	3699.5	A$4,560.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CAF4ZGAK	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3184.5	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,575.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	BX24ZVAE	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3495	A$	+3	3699.5	A$3,067.50
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	B9Q3G7AD	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3290	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,047.50
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	B9Q3HSAD	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3285	A$	+1	3699.5	A$2,072.50
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	BWZ5TPAA	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3549	A$	+5	3699.5	A$3,762.50
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CHMCQ6AJ	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5033	$	+1	5012	$-105.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CHM9L6AB	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5030	$	+1	5007	$-115.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	02/04/09	CHQJ4CAJ	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	4845	$	+2	5002	$1,570.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	30/03/09	CFVMTGAB	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5350	$	-1	5049	$1,505.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	30/03/09	CEHMJJAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	4945	$	-1	5049	$-520.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	30/03/09	CEC34EAK	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	4920	$	-1	5049	$-645.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	28/03/09	CFVPJLAH	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 MAY-09	5350	$	-1	5195	$775.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	13/03/09	CC66LKAE	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4271	$	+1	4628	$1,785.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	03/03/09	B9EU6NAJ	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4373	$	-1	4171	$1,010.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	26/02/09	B6MTECAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4100	$	+1	4210	$550.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	26/02/09	B6RQWQAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4000	$	+1	4210	$1,050.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	26/02/09	B6RAXGAC	US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract)	 APR-09	4050	$	+1	4210	$800.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	28/01/09	BYE2YFAG	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3410.5	A$	+2	3497	A$865.00
> DEAL	Closing trades	28/01/09	BYEYSBAC	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3410.5	A$	+5	3498	A$2,187.50
> DEAL	Closing trades	20/01/09	BX35SWAE	Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)	-	3451	A$	+5	3523.5	A$1,812.50
> 
> then the next
> 
> DEAL  Closing trades 16/04/09 CLNRWNAP US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5183 $ -2  4904 $2,790.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 08/04/09 CKC434AE US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5311 $ -1  4899 $2,060.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 CHTXQ5AF Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3556 A$ +3  3697.5 A$2,122.50
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q4DMAL Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +2  3697.5 A$4,125.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BW8PQSAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3493.5 A$ +3  3698.5 A$3,075.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BWWMQYAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3559.5 A$ +4  3698.5 A$2,780.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q4DMAL Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +3  3698.5 A$6,202.50
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B6U3ABAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3397.5 A$ +4  3698.5 A$6,020.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBUGCAF Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3680 A$ +2  3698.5 A$185.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBTW2AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3685.5 A$ +6  3698.5 A$390.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBXKAAM Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3681 A$ +2  3698.5 A$175.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 02/04/09 B6X5JDAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3388 A$ +1  3698.5 A$1,552.50
> DEAL  Closing trades 30/03/09 CFVHEUAB US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5340 $ -1  5120 $1,100.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 27/01/09 GRK252 Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3310 A$ +1  3420 A$550.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 27/01/09 GRK27M Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3310 A$ +5  3420 A$2,750.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 08/01/09 BTSCGWAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3699.5 A$ -10  3685.5 A$700.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 08/01/09 BTYN76AM Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3764 A$ -7  3685.5 A$2,747.50
> DEAL  Closing trades 01/01/09 BS6YMSAD US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAR-09 3999 $ +2  4524 $5,250.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 01/01/09 BS6Z29AM US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAR-09 3972 $ +1  4522 $2,750.00
> DEAL  Closing trades 23/12/08 GQ54GD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract)  - 3791.5 A$ +5  3580 A$-5,287.50
> DEAL  Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5  3791.5 A$7,287.50
> DEAL  Closing trades 22/12/08 BSHM3XAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3635.5 A$ -5  3554 A$2,037.50
> 
> is that enough for you children?




this isnt proof of anything actually but hey good luck to ya ..........hang on i,ll just post a result too


DEAL  Closing trades 33/12/08 BSWQ78AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5  3791.5 A$77777777777777,287.50 


yes i done did real good there


----------



## nunthewiser

this is my trade i did tommmorow



DEAL Closing trades 21/04/09 B6UXM6AB Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3395.5 A$ +33 369999.5 A$600,000000000000000 and a bit


get my point?

could always do a screenshot i spose and shut that beemsta fella up once and for all


but hey if ya really did turn 1500 into 550k in 12 mnths , i tip my hat to ya and have a great day


----------



## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> this is my trade i did tommmorow
> 
> 
> 
> DEAL Closing trades 21/04/09 B6UXM6AB Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3395.5 A$ +33 369999.5 A$600,000000000000000 and a bit
> 
> 
> get my point?
> 
> could always do a screenshot i spose and shut that beemsta fella up once and for all
> 
> 
> but hey if ya really did turn 1500 into 550k in 12 mnths , i tip my hat to ya and have a great day




ha! all 4 screens? this is the first page of one of the accounts. i think its the second set of numbers.


----------



## ivant

oh and of course if you want to be really picky, you could start calculating all those numbers, ie exit - entry and times that by 5. and if you want to be even more picky, i did say i close out my last trade at 3750, when in actual fact it was 3700, so i did make a mistake there.


----------



## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> this isnt proof of anything actually but hey good luck to ya ..........hang on i,ll just post a result too
> 
> 
> DEAL  Closing trades 33/12/08 BSWQ78AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5  3791.5 A$77777777777777,287.50
> 
> 
> yes i done did real good there




oh and just so that you know, 3791.5-3500 = 291.5*5*5  = 7,287.50  you are a few trillion off


----------



## nunthewiser

by the way m8 .i understand where u coming from ie , being so young and going for sheet or bust .......... do agree with TH a lil here and reckon u should put some of that cash aside now that you made yourself a nice lil capital base to work with 

but hey if you dont and continue this way ,,,, hell who is to say it shouldnt be done . your cash .your choice . just hope you continue winning and turn into a gigazillionaire by the time ya 25 

good luck with it champ


----------



## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> oh and just so that you know, 3791.5-3500 = 291.5*5*5  = 7,287.50  you are a few trillion off




 whats a few trillion in a forum hey ?


----------



## Cartman

skc said:


> Since the great men TH and MRC & Co AND *sanity-debated Cartman* all seem to accept the trading claims, all I can say is.





I resemble that remark !! 





skc said:


> Ivan, you are one BIG SWINGING DICK. (This is not a personal attack http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=big swinging dick)
> 
> _
> _



_

Hey "Ive" ----- personally it doesnt worry me whether you made a squillion or not, and if you have, brilliant,  ---- i gotta be honest; i'm still a "bit" skeptical though , sorry mate, but with the sort of claims you have made you gotta expect that --   but that doesnt mean i dont like your style  !!

what scares me the most (or in the case that your claims are true, what *interests* me the most)  is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade    ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ---- 

TH has shown us all that he can turn 2 grand into 20 grand when he gets in the zone (and thats on his "play" account lol ), so your claims from a monetary % are actually believable -- 

I'm seriously not trying to rain on your parade on a personal level, but the average punter doesnt need to be given any info that could be considered dodgy, cause it could end up costing them their shirt if you get my drift --- and believe me i know what its like to lose my shirt --- and *i dont look good in underwear* !!!

I havent been through many of the trades you pasted up (im not *that *pedantic) , but this one i'm having a little trouble with    

DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50 


opened long at 3500 (whatever date) and closed at 3791.50 on the 23/12/08  correct ?? 

M8, if i'm missing something, i apologise, but as i say, you have to accept skepticicity (i made that up   )  when making big claims 

Cheers._


----------



## nunthewiser

Cartman said:


> is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade    ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----
> 
> .





UH OH

hope that does not make my sanity doubtable also as this is a method i often use  lol not the 100% but the scaling in on perceieved reversal points


----------



## DB008

I noticed that you were asking about brokers before Ivant.


The best one that l have come across so far is Tradestation.

http://www.tradestation.com/brokerage/overview.shtm

Platform looks good and services also.

If it only did shares (and more) on the ASX, l would be in.


----------



## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> UH OH
> 
> hope that does not make my sanity doubtable also as this is a method i often use  lol not the 100% but the scaling in on perceieved reversal points




its an interesting point actually. i add to losses and heavily. ill pick a few points and rate them as to how likely i think they will be. ill enter lightly at the first likely reversal point, and then add more and more at the next ones.



Cartman said:


> I resemble that remark !!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey "Ive" ----- personally it doesnt worry me whether you made a squillion or not, and if you have, brilliant,  ---- i gotta be honest; i'm still a "bit" skeptical though , sorry mate, but with the sort of claims you have made you gotta expect that --   but that doesnt mean i dont like your style  !!
> 
> what scares me the most (or in the case that your claims are true, what *interests* me the most)  is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade    ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----
> 
> TH has shown us all that he can turn 2 grand into 20 grand when he gets in the zone (and thats on his "play" account lol ), so your claims from a monetary % are actually believable --
> 
> I'm seriously not trying to rain on your parade on a personal level, but the average punter doesnt need to be given any info that could be considered dodgy, cause it could end up costing them their shirt if you get my drift --- and believe me i know what its like to lose my shirt --- and *i dont look good in underwear* !!!
> 
> I havent been through many of the trades you pasted up (im not *that *pedantic) , but this one i'm having a little trouble with
> 
> DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50
> 
> 
> opened long at 3500 (whatever date) and closed at 3791.50 on the 23/12/08  correct ??
> 
> M8, if i'm missing something, i apologise, but as i say, you have to accept skepticicity (i made that up   )  when making big claims
> 
> Cheers.




yea i entered in at 3500 (which i think was an automatic entry through an order to open) and closed on the 23/12. i know what you are thinking, that point doesnt exist on the chart. do you remember that crazy last 3 minutes of trade, when the market was up a lot? i closed that out on my phone. i was happy. got back home, they reversed my trade due to irregular trades. thats that -5000+ on that day. ig markets deleted that spike and reversed my trade. they actually ended up giving me the 5k back later, but thats besides the point. well noted though my friend 

hehe ive been in my underwear a few times  i know what its like too. actually when in 2007 i borrowed 20k from the bank to invest in stocks. one of the stocks was CENTRO. i didnt even have underwear after they went into a trading halt the day i wanted to sell. that hurt. although, out of interest which info do you mean?



nunthewiser said:


> whats a few trillion in a forum hey ?




haha only a few extra keystrokes. 



nunthewiser said:


> by the way m8 .i understand where u coming from ie , being so young and going for sheet or bust .......... do agree with TH a lil here and reckon u should put some of that cash aside now that you made yourself a nice lil capital base to work with
> 
> but hey if you dont and continue this way ,,,, hell who is to say it shouldnt be done . your cash .your choice . just hope you continue winning and turn into a gigazillionaire by the time ya 25
> 
> good luck with it champ




hahaha gigzillionaire? thats a been insane. that would be funny just to laugh at buffett  im definitely cutting down on risk, or more so, not increasing the amount of positions as much as my capital base is. ive had too many close calls and there is no way im trading at 100% anymore. its still crazy, but i try not risk more than 50%. the only thing though is that i cant definitely say where i stop out, because i look at particular support and resistance levels and wait for a confirmation of a move against what i wanted before i cut.


----------



## ivant

DB008 said:


> I noticed that you were asking about brokers before Ivant.
> 
> 
> The best one that l have come across so far is Tradestation.
> 
> http://www.tradestation.com/brokerage/overview.shtm
> 
> Platform looks good and services also.
> 
> If it only did shares (and more) on the ASX, l would be in.




thanks a lot for that  i will be checking them out in detail today. i cant find a demo anywhere, but im sure they have something :0 thanks again


----------



## ivant

Finding a good broker is harder than finding a good girlfriend, each has its features.


----------



## Cartman

nunthewiser said:


> UH OH
> 
> hope that does not make my sanity doubtable also   lol




haha ---- its too late for you to start worrying about that Nun 





ivant said:


> i know what you are thinking, that point doesnt exist on the chart. do you remember that crazy last 3 minutes of trade, ....... well noted though my friend




all good --- 

just needed to confirm the reason for the anomaly, cause the numbers were obviously conflicting with the chart -----  that was the info i was after .... now cleared up 



ivant said:


> hehe ive been in my underwear a few times  i know what its like too.
> 
> i didnt even have underwear after they went into a trading halt the day i wanted to sell.




no underwear at all :22_yikes: ----- bummer :arsch:


----------



## ivant

Cartman said:


> all good ---
> 
> just needed to confirm the reason for the anomaly, cause the numbers were obviously conflicting with the chart -----  that was the info i was after .... now cleared up
> 
> 
> 
> no underwear at all :22_yikes: ----- bummer :arsch:




actually that also explains the drawdown ive been asked about before.. it wasnt a drawdown it was them reversing my trade. but yea that was one whacked day... i think i lost my voice. my dad was with me in the car and though i have completely lost my sanity. he knew im insane as is, just not THAT bad.. haha. yea Centro too all i had at the time haha.


----------



## Ardyne

Nice screenshot ivant. Send that off to the mag "Smart investor" and they'd use that as a centerfold spread.

Theres a snippit of your running profit and loss. Its a bit cut off. Maybe you've never closed a losing trade and its actually running at A$ -1,140,000.00


----------



## ivant

Ardyne said:


> Nice screenshot ivant. Send that off to the mag "Smart investor" and they'd use that as a centerfold spread.
> 
> Theres a snippit of your running profit and loss. Its a bit cut off. Maybe you've never closed a losing trade and its actually running at A$ -1,140,000.00




lmao!! haha it was actually a few points down. back in positives now. and you added a few zeros although smart investor had stuff like that, i swear!!


----------



## alwaysLearning

ivant said:


> oh my friend, i think mr livermoore would laugh at my MM haha. what i said and showed is only numbers. whats that famous phrase, that you find on all hedge funds and ponzi schemes: past results are not indicative of future returns? i dont know anywhere near as much about the markets as id hope, and i am nowhere near good enough to pick perfect bottoms. in that trade i was going long right about where the market started dropping. what saved me was position sizing. van tharps favourite thing  lets hope the shorts come through in the next few weeks. what are your targets? think we can get a retest in this move or is it seeming it will be closer to october?




Man, got to love Jesse Livermore though, what a legend he was


----------



## alwaysLearning

Cartman said:


> I resemble that remark !!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey "Ive" ----- personally it doesnt worry me whether you made a squillion or not, and if you have, brilliant,  ---- i gotta be honest; i'm still a "bit" skeptical though , sorry mate, but with the sort of claims you have made you gotta expect that --   but that doesnt mean i dont like your style  !!
> 
> what scares me the most (or in the case that your claims are true, what *interests* me the most)  is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade    ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----
> 
> TH has shown us all that he can turn 2 grand into 20 grand when he gets in the zone (and thats on his "play" account lol ), so your claims from a monetary % are actually believable --
> 
> I'm seriously not trying to rain on your parade on a personal level, but the average punter doesnt need to be given any info that could be considered dodgy, cause it could end up costing them their shirt if you get my drift --- and believe me i know what its like to lose my shirt --- and *i dont look good in underwear* !!!
> 
> I havent been through many of the trades you pasted up (im not *that *pedantic) , but this one i'm having a little trouble with
> 
> DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50
> 
> 
> opened long at 3500 (whatever date) and closed at 3791.50 on the 23/12/08  correct ??
> 
> M8, if i'm missing something, i apologise, but as i say, you have to accept skepticicity (i made that up   )  when making big claims
> 
> Cheers.




I know what you mean about being critical and all. But then, there is that one guy on forex factory who turned $1000 into $126000 within 1 week and yep, he posted all trades, and actually he accidently included his account number, lol. (it was a pdf report thing from fxcm) So yeah, crazy returns are possible if you're willing to take the risks.

Doesn't mean that it is safe to take such huge risks though. The bloke on forex factory who made that huge amount of money said that he would never have done that with his normal account but just for ****s and giggles did it on a $1000 account. i can find the thread on forex factory if you like?


----------



## Mr J

*Re: My trading strategy blows goats...should i change?*



So_Cynical said:


> Having a exit only on a trailing stop loss policy seems to be the go.




Different stop strategies for different strategies.



beamstas said:


> Not really
> 
> You buy 100 $5 shares ($500)
> They go to $10 each ($1000)
> 
> You sell off 50 shares @ $10 each and get your $500 back
> You now have 50 shares and your initial capital back to trade aonther lot of shares
> 
> You are not understanding that you are lowering your risk. Even though the potential profit is smaller, your risk is 0. If the shares fall back to $5 you get 10*50 + 5*50 = $750. If you are holding the whole lot and they fall back to $5 you get 100*50 = $500. (of course they would't go all the way back because you'd be using a stop... but you are still in front if you sell half your position).
> 
> Think about it like this. Would you argue pyramiding positions is bad? By your argument you'd say it's not good because the potential profit is larger if you don't pyramid and instead you just buy the whole position in one lot. But with pyramiding the risk is alot lower.
> 
> Ideally, you want to be trading with the lowest risk for the highest reward. If you sell half your position, you achive that.
> 
> Brad




It still doesn't become a risk-free trade. Whatever we have in play is ours to lose (despite the fact it could be argued that it's not ours until we've exited). There's also the opportunity cost of that trade (I recognise that taking money off the table lowers this). My only point here is that it's not a risk-free trade.

Pyramiding, well it's trading profit for consistency. I don't know whether or not it is more effective, I suppose that depends on the trading method and the skill of the trader. Pyramiding doesn't bring the highest reward, although it may bring a better R:R ratio (I assume that's what you meant). 

I really don't agree with selling half the position just for the sake of reducing risk. As far as I'm concerned, the only reason to exit a trade is if further profitability of the trade is in reasonable doubt. Taking half off just for the sake of reducing risk can leave a lot of money on the table, and we should be trying to get everything we can.



ivant said:


> im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!




You're ignoring the opportunity cost of being wiped out and having to rebuild. I doubt it is worth it to take shots, unless your capital is so small that a responsible level of trading is unsustainable. On the other hand, a bankroll is as large as all of the money you're willing to lose, including future income you would devote to trading.


----------



## ivant

livermore was a legend indeed. 

the opportunity cost of being wiped out? i read it like this, i have 2 ways to go about it.

1. finish my commerce degree (which i will regardless) and then get a stable job
2. trade off my face now, and lower the risk as i get older (which i do anyway)

considering im doing ok at the later, i dont see why i should stop. sure i do trade aggressively, but i have a huge risk tolerance. once again, thanks centro. having said what i risk on a trade, i usually go in only when odds favour the return. in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...


----------



## prawn_86

ivant said:


> in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...




What is your actual win rate of all your past trades?


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...




That is a good strategy, be almost certain before you take the trade.

If i were you, i would seriously consider preserving most of that capital. That could be a once in a lifetime opportunity. 

Perhaps you could open two accounts? One for sensible trading and the other for speculation?


----------



## Mr J

ivant said:


> livermore was a legend indeed.
> 
> the opportunity cost of being wiped out? i read it like this, i have 2 ways to go about it.
> 
> 1. finish my commerce degree (which i will regardless) and then get a stable job
> 2. trade off my face now, and lower the risk as i get older (which i do anyway)
> 
> considering im doing ok at the later, i dont see why i should stop. sure i do trade aggressively, but i have a huge risk tolerance. once again, thanks centro. having said what i risk on a trade, i usually go in only when odds favour the return. in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...




Yes, the opportunity cost of being wiped out. It's not so relevant if you have another source of income (i.e. a job), but extremely important if you don't.

Having huge risk tolerance is irrelevant if you're overbetting. There's only so much you can risk before it becomes a liability. Aggressive is fine as long as it's not irresponsible.

How much do you risk per trade, on average? Highest amout at risk? As prawn_86 asked, what is your current winrate? What's your average return per trade?


----------



## beamstas

Can't believe people are actually buying this.. 



Claimed Increase account size 250 fold in a year

Traded parents SMSF as a young teenager 

Trying to trade at 90% win rate (see NR's beginner cycle)

Risking more than your account size - You claim to only trade with trades that will win 90% of the time (btw my crystal ball is broken can i borrow yours? how do you work out if a trade is going to win before hand?) it is almost certain you will wipe your account out in 10 trades. 

I can get my quantitative methods books out from last year at uni and work out some probabilities for you guys, to actually determine what kind of chance this black swan event would have (and i'd need a huge sheet of paper to plot it on a bell curve..) but it's really a waste of my time


----------



## nunthewiser

beamstas said:


> Can't believe people are actually buying this..





 never said ANYWHERE i believed it ........ do wish him well and all the best tho


----------



## alwaysLearning

beamstas said:


> Can't believe people are actually buying this..
> 
> 
> 
> Claimed Increase account size 250 fold in a year
> 
> Traded parents SMSF as a young teenager
> 
> Trying to trade at 90% win rate (see NR's beginner cycle)
> 
> Risking more than your account size - You claim to only trade with trades that will win 90% of the time (btw my crystal ball is broken can i borrow yours? how do you work out if a trade is going to win before hand?) it is almost certain you will wipe your account out in 10 trades.
> 
> I can get my quantitative methods books out from last year at uni and work out some probabilities for you guys, to actually determine what kind of chance this black swan event would have (and i'd need a huge sheet of paper to plot it on a bell curve..) but it's really a waste of my time




Check this thread out 
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=56670


----------



## Family_Guy

I would be extremely happy to pay and sit over your shoulder Ivan and watch and learn how to pull this kinda profit. If you could 90% guarantee that i could turn $1500 into just a small profit, say, $15000 in perhaps a month or so trading the way you do, hell, you can have my $15k tax free in $10 notes.....or $20's, up to you.

...............i'm serious, always keen to learn.


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> Traded parents SMSF as a young teenager
> 
> Trying to trade at 90% win rate (see NR's beginner cycle)



 would like to see the actual definition of trading a SMSF. Which is 'carrying on a business" and not allowed in a super fund .



alwaysLearning said:


> Check this thread out
> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=56670




Oh Damn!!  that beats my 50,000 from 1000 in a week.

Right where are the bucket shop account login details again. Me got some swingin to do


----------



## beamstas

ivant said:


> I have started paper trading when i was 13. traded my parents SMSF, didnt do too badly opened an account on my 18th bday. then went to futures 07 and tried everything under the planet. metastock was working overtime at that point when i tried to get a strategy. it was in late 07 i found something that worked ok, in terms of oversold/overbought indicators (that are about to die off, as soon as we hit a bull).






			
				Trembling Hand said:
			
		

> would like to see the actual definition of trading a SMSF. Which is 'carrying on a business" and not allowed in a super fund .




Not my words TH

Brad


----------



## alwaysLearning

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh Damn!!  that beats my 50,000 from 1000 in a week.
> 
> Right where are the bucket shop account login details again. Me got some swingin to do




I'm sure you could probably do it too. 

The guy who did that on forex factory was using crazy leverage though and admitted also that when he did that, there are only about 4 times every year that the market does what it did, and he capitalised on it. 

So it's a pretty rare thing but still, just goes to show what can happen lol.

if you are a member of forex factory you can download his pdf which outlines every single trade he took:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1720382&postcount=68


----------



## skc

beamstas said:


> Can't believe people are actually buying this..
> 
> I can get my quantitative methods books out from last year at uni and work out some probabilities for you guys, to actually determine what kind of chance this black swan event would have (and i'd need a huge sheet of paper to plot it on a bell curve..) but it's really a waste of my time




Brad, I am skeptical. But no more skeptical than if someone claims that he/she has won the lotto here. The chance of winning is way way on the end of the bell curve, but the funny thing is it does happen to people at times.


----------



## ivant

if i told you what my win rate is from this year you will laugh. 

ok i dont have time to prove myself anymore. those who believe me, great, those who dont, your choice. the only thing i have to say to you is that is the major limitation of people. some people claim success and you say BS, those who dont will ask how, and achieve something. 

here is what i will tell you, the short contracts i had have been closed out, and now i have a light position betting on a small upswing here, maybe 100 points or so. i have 3 full contracts. 

i will rephrase what i said about trading SMSF, i was investing the funds, rather than trade them, because that too is illegal. 

oh and TH, well done, thats a fair return, 50k from 1k in one week. lol. thats a lot more than what people dont believe i have done.

just to kill your argument beamstas, i have a major in quantitative statistics among others. go for your life. thats exactly why you will probably end up a lecturer in your life, if you are lucky. how do you work out if a trade will win? probabilities you speak of. after the australian market drops 1000 points and oversold on every indicator under the moon, whats the chance it goes up? multiply that on a much larger scale and you will still not have the faintest idea of how i trade. learn to think. then learn to trade. then learn to accept the unacceptable. and maybe you will achieve something in your life.


----------



## beamstas

ivant said:


> i have a major in quantitative statistics among others. go for your life. thats exactly why you will probably end up a lecturer in your life, if you are lucky. how do you work out if a trade will win? probabilities you speak of. after the australian market drops 1000 points and oversold on every indicator under the moon, whats the chance it goes up? multiply that on a much larger scale and you will still not have the faintest idea of how i trade. learn to think. then learn to trade. then learn to accept the unacceptable. and maybe you will achieve something in your life.




So why would you only aim for a 90% hit rate if you know what a trade is doing before hand? If you know what the markets going to do why do you not have a 100% hit rate

I can tell you why

Because no matter how many indicators you use, the market is either going to be up tomorrow, or it is going to be down.

All you can do is offer yourself the largest reward from the smallest risk in every scenario.

Because *no one* knows what the market is going to do tomorrow. 

All you posted was a bunch of SPI trades
None of them showed an account moving from $1500 to $550,000. Don't come here making bull**** claims on a legitimate thread. You know what? People are going to read this and think they can do it. *They can't.*

I can accept that you have made profitable trades. What that quote? Even fools can be right sometimes.

Brad


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> oh and TH, well done, thats a fair return, 50k from 1k in one week. lol. thats a lot more than what people dont believe i have done.




Yes mate But I sent statements to anyone who cares to see them. Was a very simple exercise. Took about 1 min to blank out the name and acc number. Saved me looking like a fool and having to always come back to the question of was it BS.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

ivant said:


> just to kill your argument beamstas, i have a major in quantitative statistics among others. go for your life. thats exactly why you will probably end up a lecturer in your life, if you are lucky. how do you work out if a trade will win? probabilities you speak of. after the australian market drops 1000 points and oversold on every indicator under the moon, whats the chance it goes up? multiply that on a much larger scale and you will still not have the faintest idea of how i trade. learn to think. then learn to trade. then learn to accept the unacceptable. and maybe you will achieve something in your life.




For anyone who has read "Fooled by Randomness" this situation reminds me of Carlos and John.
LOL


----------



## nomore4s

What a thread.

We have a trader(and I use that term lightly) saying he has turned $1500 into over $350k with a 90% win rate and wonders why no one believes him. To me some of your posts don't add up but I'm not going to bother arguing with you about it.

Why not just do what TH suggests and send some statements to a mod and settle this once and for all?

Regardless of whether you are telling the truth or not, IMO you are nothing more then a gambler.
You risk huge amounts of money with little or no risk and money management.
You continually add to losing bets till they become winning bets - hence the high win rate.
For all your bluster your knowledge in some areas is very lacking.

IMO again, it's just a matter of time before you blow up and lose the lot and probably more as you try to chase it all back - like a true gambling addict. These market conditions will not last forever and my bet is when they change so will your account size.

If you have done what you say - well done. And do what TH said in an earlier post - reduce your size & learn about the markets, use this opportunity to set yourself up for life. To give it all back now would be very very stupid.


----------



## Agentm

i dont think i have read a thread more closely than this one for a long time..

from someones predisposition to blow goats to a legend in ones owns imagination, 

gold.. 

brilliant writing btw to all..

adding to my favorites


----------



## nomore4s

Agentm said:


> from someones predisposition to blow goats to a legend in ones owns imagination




lmao


----------



## prawn_86

**puts mod hat on**

Hi all,

Please note that i have asked Ivant to provide broker statements, either to a mod or in public. As we all know ASF is about facts, hence the reason for my asking.

There are also some inconsistencies appearing with his story which prompted me to ask him.

Until then please remember that any ludicrous claims must be backed up in order to keep ASF the best stock forum out there 

So lets try and get this thread back on track until we hear from Ivant...


----------



## Agentm

but seriously.. right here everyone needs to give a standing ovation to all..

this is one of the best threads this forum has had in a long time..


----------



## Trembling Hand

prawn_86 said:


> So lets try and get this thread back on track until we hear from Ivant...




Man this ones so far off track we will be finding wild goats soon


----------



## Family_Guy

Was never my intention to have this drag but its been interesting. Greed is a dirty word. Cheers.


----------



## Cartman

i reckon Ivan is smart enuff to answer for himself, but just a couple of points to ponder ----

i questioned this trade a few posts back and was given a perfectly logical answer to explain it ---- ie rogue spike --- IG reversed the trade  etc etc 

DEAL Closing trades *23/12/08 BSWQ77AC* Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50

This is the *reversed* trade on the same date ----

DEAL Closing trades *23/12/08 GQ54GD* Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3791.5 A$ +5 3580 A$-5,287.50 

NB.  *You dont get reversed trades on IG Demo accounts !*

Next --- the screen shot  ---- stay with me here folks  

last trade done on  08/04/09

the third fourth and sixth trades all closed on the 02/04/09 were Oz cash trades entered at either 3171.5 or 3184.5 

Those entry levels *could not have been entered any later than 10 March* 

that is *18* Trading days till the 02/04/09  and *21* Trading days up till the last trade date  (and doesnt include weekends)

IG Demo accounts are *14 Days* only ----  

on face value the accounts look real

did he make half a mill?? --- who knows --- but there is over 30 grand of closed profit on the screenshot alone 

are the accounts real?? --- they could well be, and if not ----- its a bludy good hoax 

i hope Ivan sends a couple of statements in and put us all out of our misery so we can get back to milking the goats !!:sheep:  (the goats on holidays ---- thats his mate  "Shawn" who thinks he's really Skippy  --- is it too early to be drinking !!   lol ---   only caffeine of course !!


----------



## cutz

Ah,

I've been watching from the sidelines and it's to see some reality return to this thread.


----------



## ivant

Just a quick note, before I answer the past posts, I have sent Prawn my statements, as I really don't want to disclose them publically. Nothing personal, it is not for everyone to see. 

On reflection here is what I have noted, and I WILL say this to the public, I have made 400K (395 + 5K that was reversed) and not 550, from a starting stake of 1300. I do apologise about this, but I have not looked at my statements since October. This equates to 307 fold. Sorry for approximations and the mistake in what I did say. 

That is a major difference, I realise, and I will blame human tendency to overinflate what one has. Remember the last time you looked at your bank statement. As Dylan Moran said, "You always get disappointed when you do that".

I am glad this post has provided satisfaction to the readers. Hopefully someone has learned something out of it, and hopefully after this is all done and dusted, we can start a post about all the mistakes I have done and advise for no one to follow. Beamstas will have a ball, since he seems to be in the wrong game.


----------



## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> Just a quick note, before I answer the past posts, I have sent Prawn my statements, as I really don't want to disclose them publically. Nothing personal, it is not for everyone to see.
> 
> On reflection here is what I have noted, and I WILL say this to the public, I have made 400K (395 + 5K that was reversed) and not 550, from a starting stake of 1300. I do apologise about this, but I have not looked at my statements since October. This equates to 307 fold. Sorry for approximations and the mistake in what I did say.
> 
> That is a major difference, I realise, and I will blame human tendency to overinflate what one has. Remember the last time you looked at your bank statement. As Dylan Moran said, "You always get disappointed when you do that".
> 
> I am glad this post has provided satisfaction to the readers. Hopefully someone has learned something out of it, and hopefully after this is all done and dusted, we can start a post about all the mistakes I have done and advise for no one to follow. Beamstas will have a ball, since he seems to be in the wrong game.




$1300 to $400 k till darn commendable .IF prawn verifies these statements i reckon you should just tell em all to jam sand up there clackers .

well done and i tip my hat sincerely


----------



## ivant

Cartman said:


> i reckon Ivan is smart enuff to answer for himself, but just a couple of points to ponder ----
> 
> i questioned this trade a few posts back and was given a perfectly logical answer to explain it ---- ie rogue spike --- IG reversed the trade  etc etc
> 
> DEAL Closing trades *23/12/08 BSWQ77AC* Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50
> 
> This is the *reversed* trade on the same date ----
> 
> DEAL Closing trades *23/12/08 GQ54GD* Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3791.5 A$ +5 3580 A$-5,287.50
> 
> NB.  *You dont get reversed trades on IG Demo accounts !*
> 
> Next --- the screen shot  ---- stay with me here folks
> 
> last trade done on  08/04/09
> 
> the third fourth and sixth trades all closed on the 02/04/09 were Oz cash trades entered at either 3171.5 or 3184.5
> 
> Those entry levels *could not have been entered any later than 10 March*
> 
> that is *18* Trading days till the 02/04/09  and *21* Trading days up till the last trade date  (and doesnt include weekends)
> 
> IG Demo accounts are *14 Days* only ----
> 
> on face value the accounts look real
> 
> did he make half a mill?? --- who knows --- but there is over 30 grand of closed profit on the screenshot alone
> 
> are the accounts real?? --- they could well be, and if not ----- its a bludy good hoax
> 
> i hope Ivan sends a couple of statements in and put us all out of our misery so we can get back to milking the goats !!:sheep:  (the goats on holidays ---- thats his mate  "Shawn" who thinks he's really Skippy  --- is it too early to be drinking !!   lol ---   only caffeine of course !!




Thanks man, I appreciate it


----------



## beamstas

ivant said:


> Beamstas will have a ball, since he seems to be in the wrong game.




What does this even mean?
Something about a game?

Anyway. 

If i am wrong, i'll humbly apologise. $1300 to $550k.. whooops 400k is quite a gain.


----------



## prawn_86

ivant said:


> Just a quick note, before I answer the past posts, I have sent Prawn my statements, as I really don't want to disclose them publically. Nothing personal, it is not for everyone to see.




And i can confirm that i have seen them and that these claims are correct.

Well done Ivant! But seriously though, you should look at setting some of that aside for your future so you dont blow it all up.


----------



## Cartman

Cartman said:


> NB.  *You dont get reversed trades on IG Demo accounts !*
> 
> Next --- the screen shot  ---- stay with me here folks
> 
> IG Demo accounts are *14 Days* only ----
> 
> on face value *the accounts look real*





the reversed trade was what got me interested !! 

the screenshot timeframe kinda confirmed it, although anything is manipulativeable (another of my own words   )




ivant said:


> Just a quick note, before I answer the past posts, I have sent Prawn my statements, as I really don't want to disclose them publically. Nothing personal, it is not for everyone to see.
> 
> 
> That is a major difference, I realise, and I will blame human tendency to overinflate what one has. Remember the last time you looked at your bank statement. As Dylan Moran said, "You always get disappointed when you do that".




well Ive, if you've over inflated 400 K into 550 K, im willing to forgive your exhuberance  ---- hell i'll share 400 K with ya  anyday !!!

personally, i hope and think you are the real deal 
a) cause i kinda went out on a limb to say so and 
b)cause i see parallels with my own line of thinking and i'm getting "excited"  lol ----  
call me Big Kev. i dont care  ----


----------



## beamstas

Looks like im dining in tonight.

Well done ivan. You have achieved the unachievable. Over leveraging.. Risking more than your account and still coming out on top. 

For you readers out there.. dont try this at home 

I commend your efforts, good luck to you in the future with your trading. 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## nunthewiser

prawn_86 said:


> And i can confirm that i have seen them and that these claims are correct.
> 
> Well done Ivant! But seriously though, you should look at setting some of that aside for your future so you dont blow it all up.





LOL nah bugga that m8 i wanna see his claim that he turned 400k into 44 billion next


----------



## ivant

prawn_86 said:


> And i can confirm that i have seen them and that these claims are correct.
> 
> Well done Ivant! But seriously though, you should look at setting some of that aside for your future so you dont blow it all up.




Thanks a lot . Enough people have told me this over the last few days, for me to engrave it into my brain. Thank you to everyone who DID believe me. I still can't believe I went through the effort to actually prove this. I'm so young and stupid lol. There is something about young age that always wants to make you want to prove something to others. I have no idea why. Maybe inflated levels of testosterone. Furthermore, thanks to everyone who has advised me to put money aside. I think that its actually a very good idea. Lower the trade risk maybe to around 50% overall, and then hopefully to about 10% by middle of next year. 



Cartman said:


> the reversed trade was what got me interested !!
> 
> the screenshot timeframe kinda confirmed it, although anything is manipulativeable (another of my own words   )
> 
> 
> 
> 
> well Ive, if you've over inflated 400 K into 550 K, im willing to forgive your exhuberance  ---- hell i'll share 400 K with ya  anyday !!!
> 
> personally, i hope and think you are the real deal
> a) cause i kinda went out on a limb to say so and
> b)cause i see parallels with my own line of thinking and i'm getting "excited"  lol ----
> call me Big Kev. i dont care  ----




Hahaha Big Kev  haha. Funny. Well its all proved now. You were on the right side


----------



## ivant

beamstas said:


> Looks like im dining in tonight.
> 
> Well done ivan. You have achieved the unachievable. Over leveraging.. Risking more than your account and still coming out on top.
> 
> For you readers out there.. dont try this at home
> 
> I commend your efforts, good luck to you in the future with your trading.
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




Thanks Brad. I agree, don't try this at home. It is a lot of stress when you are on a margin call with nothing to pay. 




nunthewiser said:


> LOL nah bugga that m8 i wanna see his claim that he turned 400k into 44 billion next




Hahaha. 44 billion!! OMG!! Ok, next month?


----------



## beamstas

Can i please add to this thread.. without looking like an asshat even further



ivant said:


> Furthermore, thanks to everyone who has advised me to put money aside. I think that its actually a very good idea. Lower the trade risk maybe to around 50% overall, and then hopefully to about 10% by middle of next year.




Ivan. You must know your stuff to have gotten from $1300 to $400,000.
But i'd like to add that most people around here (including me) wouldn't even dream of risking that.
I risk 1% of capital per trade and im sure many others around here are pretty close to the mark too

What is your secret


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ivan if you have a tendency to gamble big - nothing wrong with that.

here's my advice. take out everything except $20,000 and do it again. will satisfy your urge to push things, you can still leverage up but if you blow your account you start again with another $20,000. After you blow it 5 times you will start to think a little differently about your process. And you will still have $300,000 left.


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> Ivan if you have a tendency to gamble big - nothing wrong with that.
> 
> here's my advice. take out everything except $20,000 and do it again. will satisfy your urge to push things, you can still leverage up but if you blow your account you start again with another $20,000. After you blow it 5 times you will start to think a little differently about your process. And you will still have $300,000 left.




funnily enuff TH -- that is exactly what i suggested to Ive in a PM ---- although i said take out 90% which would leave him with  --- mmmm   ---- 40 grand play money !!!!

cant believe im trying to give advice to someone who turned chicken pellets into solid gold --- lol ----- 

good onya Ive ---- unbelievable stuff ---- havent felt this happy for someone else in a long time :bananasmi  (Big Kev's little brother !!!)


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> What is your secret




Lol ---- ballz of cryptonite ----


----------



## ivant

beamstas said:


> Can i please add to this thread.. without looking like an asshat even further
> 
> 
> 
> Ivan. You must know your stuff to have gotten from $1300 to $400,000.
> But i'd like to add that most people around here (including me) wouldn't even dream of risking that.
> I risk 1% of capital per trade and im sure many others around here are pretty close to the mark too
> 
> What is your secret




the secret is very simple. It all comes down to your psychology. believe the unbelievable. question everything, like cartman for that matter, and then put your money where your mouth is. its not about how you play the market, its how you play against yourself. its like playing guitar (of which im a big fan), skill and theory is a very small component of sounding good. do i really know my stuff? i think i now am starting to understand how markets work, only recently. the tough months of october and november really rung a bell. i think i just pretended i knew enough to risk everything. 



Trembling Hand said:


> Ivan if you have a tendency to gamble big - nothing wrong with that.
> 
> here's my advice. take out everything except $20,000 and do it again. will satisfy your urge to push things, you can still leverage up but if you blow your account you start again with another $20,000. After you blow it 5 times you will start to think a little differently about your process. And you will still have $300,000 left.




I think it is a very very good idea. Cartman suggested 10% just before, and there were other suggestions too! I guess the decision is made for me on this particular idea. I probably won't be doing this just now, because im very high on confidence recently, after a very long few months (since november through to march really, was very very out of it), so its a good time to give it a good shake. ill definitely be betting less once im out of the zone. hopefully i dont jinx myself haha. 



Cartman said:


> funnily enuff TH -- that is exactly what i suggested to Ive in a PM ---- although i said take out 90% which would leave him with  --- mmmm   ---- 40 grand play money !!!!
> 
> cant believe im trying to give advice to someone who turned chicken pellets into solid gold --- lol -----
> 
> good onya Ive ---- unbelievable stuff ---- havent felt this happy for someone else in a long time :bananasmi  (Big Kev's little brother !!!)




lol, believe me man, i listen to everything and everyone. whether i do particularly act on what someone says, is a different matter (unrelated to this particular idea, because i will do it), and i weigh up the pros and cons. but it is always great to have several people's heads think on an issue, which is why such an open environment for discussion is awesome. 




Cartman said:


> Lol ---- ballz of cryptonite ----




lol, i wish.  jadarite


----------



## CapnBirdseye

What I'd like to see Ivant do is to put $398,700 in to the bank/buy gold bullion/whatever and start again.  If you get to $400k again, then its time crack open the Dom Perignon.


----------



## andrewcim

I must say, hard to believe, but if it's all true you have obviously found the trading plan we wish we all had. I recently finished a course and still losing money so well done.

If I were you I'd go all out. You obviously have a great win/loss ratio so I'd keep trading the way you are. Like you said, at your age it's the best time to go bankrupt


----------



## Nero64

Well done Ivan. You may have a bit of my money there which I have given to IG over the year.



> Because no one knows what the market is going to do tomorrow.





George Soros says he knows. He was interviewed on tech ticker and he said I know exactly which way the USD is going to go, but he wouldn't elaborate.


----------



## Bobby

Hello Ivant,

I've gone overnight many times on the SPI without any stops , only slept well when pi**ed , sometimes there was a nice surprise the next morning & some horror shows  
Lucky it's balanced out in my favor so far  ..
Just like to know how you handled that sort of pressure ?


----------



## ivant

CapnBirdseye said:


> What I'd like to see Ivant do is to put $398,700 in to the bank/buy gold bullion/whatever and start again.  If you get to $400k again, then its time crack open the Dom Perignon.




i think that sounds great, but i wont take that challenge on. i want to improve as a trader and not repeat luck. 



andrewcim said:


> I must say, hard to believe, but if it's all true you have obviously found the trading plan we wish we all had. I recently finished a course and still losing money so well done.
> 
> If I were you I'd go all out. You obviously have a great win/loss ratio so I'd keep trading the way you are. Like you said, at your age it's the best time to go bankrupt




haha. i wish my trading plan was more mechanical. there is a lot of thinking and a lot of work that it requires. i want to reduce risk because risking more than i have is insane. however having the capital to let me live on is great. you will do great if you just stick in there. ive been killed and told to stop by many many people, inclusive of my parents. 



Nero64 said:


> Well done Ivan. You may have a bit of my money there which I have given to IG over the year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> George Soros says he knows. He was interviewed on tech ticker and he said I know exactly which way the USD is going to go, but he wouldn't elaborate.




sorry for stealing your money  soros does know. lol. but im not soros! i wish i could be. maybe one day.. 



Bobby said:


> Hello Ivant,
> 
> I've gone overnight many times on the SPI without any stops , only slept well when pi**ed , sometimes there was a nice surprise the next morning & some horror shows
> Lucky it's balanced out in my favor so far  ..
> Just like to know how you handled that sort of pressure ?




interesting point. i usually go to bed at 3-5 am so i get a good understanding of what is happening. then i have an alarm going off by the hour if its important. i love to be in the know. i usually miss the open unless i need to do something. at the moment (since around july) we have been more active at night then in the day. i dont know when that will stop, but at the moment i just stay though the night. i theoretically trade the FTSE and DOW too, because overnight prices move on their moves. usually they are pretty well correlated though.


----------



## alwaysLearning

Cartman said:


> i reckon Ivan is smart enuff to answer for himself, but just a couple of points to ponder ----
> 
> i questioned this trade a few posts back and was given a perfectly logical answer to explain it ---- ie rogue spike --- IG reversed the trade  etc etc
> 
> DEAL Closing trades *23/12/08 BSWQ77AC* Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50
> 
> This is the *reversed* trade on the same date ----
> 
> DEAL Closing trades *23/12/08 GQ54GD* Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3791.5 A$ +5 3580 A$-5,287.50
> 
> NB.  *You dont get reversed trades on IG Demo accounts !*
> 
> Next --- the screen shot  ---- stay with me here folks
> 
> last trade done on  08/04/09
> 
> the third fourth and sixth trades all closed on the 02/04/09 were Oz cash trades entered at either 3171.5 or 3184.5
> 
> Those entry levels *could not have been entered any later than 10 March*
> 
> that is *18* Trading days till the 02/04/09  and *21* Trading days up till the last trade date  (and doesnt include weekends)
> 
> IG Demo accounts are *14 Days* only ----
> 
> on face value the accounts look real
> 
> did he make half a mill?? --- who knows --- but there is over 30 grand of closed profit on the screenshot alone
> 
> are the accounts real?? --- they could well be, and if not ----- its a bludy good hoax
> 
> i hope Ivan sends a couple of statements in and put us all out of our misery so we can get back to milking the goats !!:sheep:  (the goats on holidays ---- thats his mate  "Shawn" who thinks he's really Skippy  --- is it too early to be drinking !!   lol ---   only caffeine of course !!




You are a smart man Cartman. Good detective work there


----------



## alwaysLearning

Trembling Hand said:


> Ivan if you have a tendency to gamble big - nothing wrong with that.
> 
> here's my advice. take out everything except $20,000 and do it again. will satisfy your urge to push things, you can still leverage up but if you blow your account you start again with another $20,000. After you blow it 5 times you will start to think a little differently about your process. And you will still have $300,000 left.




Golden post here. But then again Ivan, don't doubt yourself either. If you can do what you can do then maybe you're gifted in some way that most people are not.

But TH post is great because at least you can prove to yourself a few times just to make sure and at the same time have enough to risk a bit less.

Also Ivan I note you mentioned that things will get a bit more difficult as size grows anyway.

Anyway well done Ivan


----------



## Cartman

alwaysLearning said:


> You are a smart man Cartman. Good detective work there




Lol --- for craps sake dont tell anyone that A/L --- you'll ruin my reputation 

Hats off to Ivan ---- he is the smart one ---- believing in his ability enuff to keep putting the cash on the line ---- 

Both him and TH are rare commodities !!

Ballzy --- Brilliant --- Brazen --- 

I had some of those qualities once but then i added another B word --- "Boofhead" and lost the lot  lol   ----  

Inspirational stuff Ivan ---- cant stop smiling for ya


----------



## ivant

Cartman said:


> Lol --- for craps sake dont tell anyone that A/L --- you'll ruin my reputation
> 
> Hats off to Ivan ---- he is the smart one ---- believing in his ability enuff to keep putting the cash on the line ----
> 
> Both him and TH are rare commodities !!
> 
> Ballzy --- Brilliant --- Brazen ---
> 
> I had some of those qualities once but then i added another B word --- "Boofhead" and lost the lot  lol   ----
> 
> Inspirational stuff Ivan ---- cant stop smiling for ya




haha Cartman was one of the first to be on the ball. That actually was a great pickup! I was surprised. I was a little stumped at first haha. Haha you are a great man Cartman. Although I think TH is the rare commodity, I'm just blowing in the wind. Thank you nevertheless.


----------



## sagitar

Ivant, I must admit I have enjoyed reading this entire thread and like most other here are quite impressed with your returns....congrats!

I have wondered though why don't you try out Direct Market Access (DMA) on Igmarkets (referred to as PureDMA)? The key thing here is that you won't be struggling against a Market Maker, hence your spreads will be those set by the actual buyers/sellers in the market. I also have an IG account and am looking to upgrade soon.  If you've already tried DMA out I'd be keen to hear what you think of it?  Otherwise give it a shot and see if it helps with slippage problems.

Anyone else use DMA? If so, what your thoughts...


thanks. 

cheers
Sag


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> interesting point. i usually go to bed at 3-5 am so i get a good understanding of what is happening. then i have an alarm going off by the hour if its important. i love to be in the know. i usually miss the open unless i need to do something. at the moment (since around july) we have been more active at night then in the day. i dont know when that will stop, but at the moment i just stay though the night. i theoretically trade the FTSE and DOW too, because overnight prices move on their moves. usually they are pretty well correlated though.




Ha Ha ! Now I know how you did it  

And as for that DOW correlation  at night , I do agree ,.
Notice it turned up quick tonight , I had some shorts on but escaped just before , the DOW Futs didn't give the warning but gut feel said close them now


----------



## ivant

sagitar said:


> Ivant, I must admit I have enjoyed reading this entire thread and like most other here are quite impressed with your returns....congrats!
> 
> I have wondered though why don't you try out Direct Market Access (DMA) on Igmarkets (referred to as PureDMA)? The key thing here is that you won't be struggling against a Market Maker, hence your spreads will be those set by the actual buyers/sellers in the market. I also have an IG account and am looking to upgrade soon.  If you've already tried DMA out I'd be keen to hear what you think of it?  Otherwise give it a shot and see if it helps with slippage problems.
> 
> Anyone else use DMA? If so, what your thoughts...
> 
> 
> thanks.
> 
> cheers
> Sag




Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't DMA for stocks only? In any case, I'll be moving to futures sometime soon. Probably in the upcoming weeks. I am swing trading though, and I am pretty confident they cover my positions in the underlying market. 



Bobby said:


> Ha Ha ! Now I know how you did it
> 
> And as for that DOW correlation  at night , I do agree ,.
> Notice it turned up quick tonight , I had some shorts on but escaped just before , the DOW Futs didn't give the warning but gut feel said close them now




Lol you are on to something my friend. By not being a real person  I am an alien . I closed my shorts out yesterday (as I mentioned a few posts ago, a few hundred posts ago lol), I thought we got a little short-term oversold. I have a small position riding long. I am a little unsure at the moment, this movement isnt very convincing to any direction IMO. Probably more to retest the highs then to the lows. Nevertheless, will be interesting to see. If there will be some confirmation of a continued fall (i am very very bearish still), i will reenter. Good gut feel though so far!! Well done


----------



## ivant

sagitar said:


> Ivant, I must admit I have enjoyed reading this entire thread and like most other here are quite impressed with your returns....congrats!
> 
> I have wondered though why don't you try out Direct Market Access (DMA) on Igmarkets (referred to as PureDMA)? The key thing here is that you won't be struggling against a Market Maker, hence your spreads will be those set by the actual buyers/sellers in the market. I also have an IG account and am looking to upgrade soon.  If you've already tried DMA out I'd be keen to hear what you think of it?  Otherwise give it a shot and see if it helps with slippage problems.
> 
> Anyone else use DMA? If so, what your thoughts...
> 
> 
> thanks.
> 
> cheers
> Sag





Oh and thanks for the congratulations Sag


----------



## tech/a

Bobby said:


> Ha Ha ! Now I know how you did it
> 
> And as for that DOW correlation  at night , I do agree ,.
> Notice it turned up quick tonight , *I had some shorts on but escaped just before , the DOW Futs didn't give the warning but gut feel said close them now *





That gut feel indicator has to be one of the most used on the planet.Perhaps there should be a thread for *"Trading Mavericks".*
My analysis tells me they wont be posting in 6-12 mths.
Seen plenty come and plenty go.


----------



## Agentm

ivant said:


> Just a quick note, before I answer the past posts, I have sent Prawn my statements, as I really don't want to disclose them publically. Nothing personal, it is not for everyone to see.
> 
> On reflection here is what I have noted, and I WILL say this to the public, I have made 400K (395 + 5K that was reversed) and not 550, from a starting stake of 1300. I do apologise about this, but I have not looked at my statements since October. This equates to 307 fold. Sorry for approximations and the mistake in what I did say.
> 
> That is a major difference, I realise, and I will blame human tendency to overinflate what one has. Remember the last time you looked at your bank statement. As Dylan Moran said, "You always get disappointed when you do that".
> 
> I am glad this post has provided satisfaction to the readers. Hopefully someone has learned something out of it, and hopefully after this is all done and dusted, we can start a post about all the mistakes I have done and advise for no one to follow. Beamstas will have a ball, since he seems to be in the wrong game.




well fug me...

i owe you an apology ivan.. 

i absolutely thought some very well spoken hoax was happening, and i was extremely amused and intrigued by this thread..  

your certainly have achieved some tremendous gains, and what i like about you is your openness to wanting to discuss what didnt work also. 


keep on posting away. i am sure plenty here will be extremely interested in your input..

i am off to blow some goats now


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bobby said:


> I've gone overnight many times on the SPI without any stops , only slept well when pi**ed , sometimes there was a nice surprise the next morning & some horror shows
> Lucky it's balanced out in my favor so far  ..
> Just like to know how you handled that sort of pressure




Why put yourself into such a silly state


----------



## brty

Hi,

Ballsy, Gutsy, Brazen....

Don't do this at home etc... are what everyone seems to be implying. Yet what is the downside?? $1300 and time (and not much of that).

Perhaps this is the way we all should be trading. Take a small starting account, pony it up with huge risk, and stop at a predetermined time, withdraw 95% of balance, and do the same again.

If you blow up So What??? it is only small starting amount and "market money".
If it works, rinse, repeat.

This thread is making me think about my entire trading philosophy, and I've only been doing it on and off for 29 years.

brty


----------



## beamstas

brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> Ballsy, Gutsy, Brazen....
> 
> Don't do this at home etc... are what everyone seems to be implying. Yet what is the downside?? $1300 and time (and not much of that).
> 
> Perhaps this is the way we all should be trading. Take a small starting account, pony it up with huge risk, and stop at a predetermined time, withdraw 95% of balance, and do the same again.
> 
> If you blow up So What??? it is only small starting amount and "market money".
> If it works, rinse, repeat.
> 
> This thread is making me think about my entire trading philosophy, and I've only been doing it on and off for 29 years.
> 
> brty




Don't forget if you are risking more than your account size the broker ain't gonna write off your margin call


----------



## tech/a

brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> Ballsy, Gutsy, Brazen....
> 
> Don't do this at home etc... are what everyone seems to be implying. Yet what is the downside?? $1300 and time (and not much of that).
> 
> Perhaps this is the way we all should be trading. Take a small starting account, pony it up with huge risk, and stop at a predetermined time, withdraw 95% of balance, and do the same again.
> 
> If you blow up So What??? it is only small starting amount and "market money".
> If it works, rinse, repeat.
> 
> This thread is making me think about my entire trading philosophy, and I've only been doing it on and off for 29 years.
> 
> brty




It maybe a suprise to some buy I actually agree with this.

Its an important discussion topic one I will start soon on the beginners thread.


----------



## brty

Most talk about having risks of .5% or 1% or 2% max. Perhaps the 20%, 30% or even 50% risk of account size is/could be appropriate for set period trading of a certain style.

For Ivant it has worked by being short and aggressive at the right time. Of course market conditions change, and such an approach won't work in all conditions. An aggressive range trading strategy will only/could only work in the appropriate market conditions. Same for long strategies.

brty


----------



## prawn_86

brty said:


> If you blow up So What??? it is only small starting amount and "market money".
> *If it works,* rinse, repeat.




I can see what your saying but the key to me is IF it works. I tried doing the same thing when i first started and quickly blew up a CFD account.

So at what point do you stop 'throwing good money after bad'? As long as people understand that its not actually easy to do and are willing to take high risks then its ok. But to me it just become gambling if they are always just chasing the next 'big win' constantly topping up their account with other cash


----------



## MS+Tradesim

*Ivan,* well done. I followed this thread with interest. I didn't disbelieve your claims because I know what can be achieved. But it can be blown just as easy with a losing streak fed by revenge trading and panic responses.

Maybe you're the next Soros. But like others have said. Put aside the bulk of your money and try it again. If you can rinse and repeat several times, then you'll know it wasn't just a statistical fluke. Good luck.


----------



## brty

TH, Prawn, 

I'm trying to think outside the square here. Not saying it is the be all and end all.

I did a similar thing to Ivant many years ago (but not to the same extent), turned a few hundred dollars into a few thousand in a very short time. The only money I put into the account was the deposit required for one wool contract, $200 if memory serves me (it was 1980). I knew nothing about risk management (or for that matter anything else).
I also have a friend who turned a couple of thousand into ~$750,000 during the late '80's, over 2 years, before he got educated. He has never been able to get close to those type of returns since. In fact he now looks for such perfect trades with nearly zero risk that he rarely pulls the trigger. (lost all consistency)

What people do when they get educated about markets is usually along the lines of all the common themes...
1 let profits run, cut losses
2 risk no more than 2% per trade
3 be consistent, don't miss trades
4 have a plan that has positive expectancy over the longer term
5 trade what you are comfortable with
6 etc,etc

Yet it is the uneducated that seem to have the huge percentage gains in a small amount of time. It usually finishes when the market changes and they blow up. Then they seek education or quit. 
Of course some ideas (of new traders) never get off the ground, they just lose and disappear.

If you think and act like most people, then you can expect the same results as most people. My understanding is that most people lose at this game.

brty

TH, why did you pull that post??


----------



## MS+Tradesim

brty said:


> TH, why did you pull that post??




He moved it here.


----------



## ivant

Hey all,

I thought I'd post a quick one in response to some of the previous posts.

Having been through this situation once (building up capital from nothing), I would not do it again just for kicks. I was on the brink of being out of the game a lot. I used to wake up to a daily margin call. I was lucky a lot of the time. Is it statistical fluke? I don't know, but I would not say it wasn't. When Brad (beamstas) suggested he could plot it on a normal distribution graph, he was right that is going to be extreme. I don't think you can get an exact definition of where, because it is hard to predict how much I am risking, and how likely I think the market will be up (I have not had a losing trade since November, yet past performance means **** all). Nevertheless, provided you could waste a few hours or days and get a model together, it will still be on the end of the curve (although I could still argue there is a fat-tail when it comes to markets). Point is, I would rather say it was statistical fluke then do it again. 

When I came to creating a trading model, it was all based on my psychology, my personal psychology. I hate losing, and have major difficulties taking losses. I didn't like day trading, and wanted to have as little screen time as possible, so that I could spend more time thinking about the future of the markets (the bigger picture). As a result of all that I chose a longer term strategy (I mean who holds a futures contract for up to 3 months, with an average holding time of 2 weeks, c'mon), where I effectively add to my losses. I add a LOT to my losses. Which gets me into trouble when my "worst-case scenario gets smashed in the head". I have always been very aggressive (not physically, lol), from my tennis days on the court, down to the markets, and I always took a lopsided risk/reward strategy, where risk outweighed reward. This is changing now, and I am risking less.

I am thankful to everyone who does visit this post, and I am still very apologetic to Family_Guy for stealing his post. If there are a few thing I can tell anyone to do in trading (I do not think I have been in markets long enough to really recommend anything to anyone), that is to have enough starting capital, make sure you believe in yourself, and make sure you question everything (like Cartman). Is the Earth really round, do we exist (Locke, Bishop Berkeley), who caused September 11, what were the reasons behind war in Iraq, and then take all sides of the story and make your belief based on it. We are never to know what is true and what is false, and our duty is to trade our beliefs. My biggest problem was stress management at the start. More capital helped me get away from the daily margin call messages on my phone. That is why I will not want to do it again.


----------



## MRC & Co

Agree with the posts of brty.

Think like the herd, get the results of the herd.

This is a case of a contrarian, with his own strategy to take advantage of that, which works.  

Very simple, trouble is, most don't do it because it takes ballz, you will have big drawdowns when you get it wrong, but if you keep some risk management in place (which Ivan can now do), you will most likely end up in front IMO!    

Well done Ivan!  You said the markets would go up yesterday, LOL, another winning trade for you!


----------



## Nero64

> Yet it is the uneducated that seem to have the huge percentage gains in a small amount of time. It usually finishes when the market changes and they blow up. Then they seek education or quit.
> Of course some ideas (of new traders) never get off the ground, they just lose and disappear




I agree. I was making $6000 a week for about a month from a few 2-3 Index mini contracts. I read about risk but would avoid it in most circumstances and hated losing money. Then the market changed and I was Long and widening my stops. About a week before the market recovered (March 2008) back to 6000 I pulled the plug, to take a $32000 hit. Never made that back and never had that same luck again. however with the market recovering 600-700 points since mid march I see how Ivan could've made money pyramiding to positions. That's not trading skill that's just a market recovery. The tough part is keeping it and without using stops it is very hard.


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Lol you are on to something my friend. By not being a real person  I am an alien . I closed my shorts out yesterday (as I mentioned a few posts ago, a few hundred posts ago lol), I thought we got a little short-term oversold. I have a small position riding long. I am a little unsure at the moment, this movement isnt very convincing to any direction IMO. Probably more to retest the highs then to the lows. Nevertheless, will be interesting to see. If there will be some confirmation of a continued fall (i am very very bearish still), i will reenter. Good gut feel though so far!! Well done




Its kinda funny that when I treat it as a points game & not take it so seriously it all just falls into place more often  

See your in-tune with your above analysis , Yep see that big picture then play your hand , even not playing is good .
I don't like the look of things tonight so far , could be one of those rare times I stay out .
But in saying that if the bunnies push it to far in one direction I'll play maybe  
I'm trying figure when to hit with size on the short side very soon , willing to risk big on that play  !!

Have Fun ..... I am .


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> Think like the herd, get the results of the herd.
> 
> Very simple, trouble is, most don't do it because it takes ballz, you will have big drawdowns when you get it wrong, but if you keep some risk management in place (which Ivan can now do), you will most likely end up in front IMO!
> 
> *Well done Ivan*!  You said the markets would go up yesterday, LOL, another winning trade for you!





actually --- well done to you too Mirc --- i note that you were  giving Ivan wraps for his content way b4 most of us ---  




Nero64 said:


> I agree. I was making $6000 a week for about a month from a few 2-3 Index mini contracts. I read about risk but would avoid it in most circumstances and hated losing money. Then the market changed and I was Long and widening my stops. About a week before the market recovered (March 2008) back to 6000 I pulled the plug, to take a $32000 hit. Never made that back and never had that same luck again. however with the market recovering 600-700 points since mid march I see how Ivan could've made money pyramiding to positions. *That's not trading skill* that's just a market recovery. The tough part is keeping it and without using stops it is very hard.




not sure i agree with the not being skill bit, but i get your point Nero  ---

how does the spiel go from the spin doctors  ---

its the time in the markets that counts, *not timing the markets* (or something like that)   ----- 

nothing like feeding the average punter with bull market kerfuffle to keep him at a disadvantage  ---

timing is everything (if your trading !!)  in my humble opinion

ps g'day Bob


----------



## Bobby

tech/a said:


> That gut feel indicator has to be one of the most used on the planet.Perhaps there should be a thread for *"Trading Mavericks".*
> My analysis tells me they wont be posting in 6-12 mths.
> Seen plenty come and plenty go.




Well you are right about seen plenty come & go , bet you would think twice about having a wager against Ivan  ?  
The thing I like about you Tech is your tenacious mind !
Take that as a compliment


----------



## MRC & Co

Nero64 said:


> 600-700 points since mid march I see how Ivan could've made money pyramiding to positions. That's not trading skill that's just a market recovery. The tough part is keeping it and without using stops it is very hard.




How is waiting for extreme oversold conditions, and then buying off support levels on the way down, luck?  It's called using the markets ebbs and flows to your advantage.  If it's oversold, it has to make at least a lower high at some point.  Vice-versa for a bullish scenario.

Yes, risking your entire net worth is too much, but when that amount is small, your entries need to be tigher and your size smaller.  As you grow, you can now up both and still keep money away for a rainy day.  In the end, what is the difference between this and a market neutral strategy such as pairs trading like in the example here in the general chat area?  Both need big contributions per trade, and both are likely to be right, if your wrong, both could be costly.  But the overall % win makes up for that big downer.

Too many here proclaim a lower % win and higher returns (letting profits run) as the gospel (probably due to Adaptive Analysis).  It's just one way to look at it, but the herd will flock where the herd will flock.  

Note:  I don't trade like this, but it does work.

Everything works and everything doesn't.  Find your own niche.


----------



## Bobby

Trembling Hand said:


> Why put yourself into such a silly state




Hello TH ,
Its all about having some fun , not sure if you mean trading when pi**ed or going overnight without stops  ?
Both are really funny to do    life is short enough so why not create some extra thrills along the way  :

Cartman would love this style of play  ?  Hi Cartman


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> Its kinda funny that when I treat it as a points game & not take it so seriously it all just falls into place more often
> 
> See your in-tune with your above analysis , Yep see that big picture then play your hand , even not playing is good .
> I don't like the look of things tonight so far , could be one of those rare times I stay out .
> But in saying that if the bunnies push it to far in one direction I'll play maybe
> I'm trying figure when to hit with size on the short side very soon , willing to risk big on that play  !!
> 
> Have Fun ..... I am .




I think that was one of my major difficulties, as size increases so do profits. I think you have to look at points, and concentrate on points. Otherwise you start getting greedy/scared, both equally bad in huge amounts (however in toleration both together are powerful, be greedy and be scared someone once said [does anyone know who?? escaped me]). im on the sidelines at the moment, as i said i closed the longs (which was a small greedy trade). the more it moves up the better off i am. if we can move up 40 points or so, ill start going short again, which will mean my entries will be better than my previous shorts. 



Cartman said:


> actually --- well done to you too Mirc --- i note that you were  giving Ivan wraps for his content way b4 most of us ---
> 
> not sure i agree with the not being skill bit, but i get your point Nero  ---
> 
> how does the spiel go from the spin doctors  ---
> 
> its the time in the markets that counts, *not timing the markets* (or something like that)   -----
> 
> nothing like feeding the average punter with bull market kerfuffle to keep him at a disadvantage  ---
> 
> timing is everything (if your trading !!)  in my humble opinion
> 
> ps g'day Bob




I agree man, timing is crucial. Remember a good year with Russell Crowe? what is the secret to comedy? ... [pause]... timing. Without timing you can be very right, but very broke. I experienced that before. Obviously in the above example, sent by Nero64, the same happened. Nero was right, but the timing was off. That is a painful loss. I got wiped out like that once. 



Bobby said:


> Well you are right about seen plenty come & go , bet you would think twice about having a wager against Ivan  ?
> The thing I like about you Tech is your tenacious mind !
> Take that as a compliment




Haha, I don't think that future results are in the bag. In a previous reference to adjusting to what the markets are doing, I try to analyse what will be happening. I will be trading a different strategy once we are in a bull market and the volatility dies. That's why backtesting is so hard. Different conditions will give you different results. RSI maybe the best indicator over a volatile period, but useless over a quiet bull. It is skill to pick the right set of tools in the right market. That's where the pros live and the amateurs die. I will let you know in 10 years if i will be alive 



MRC & Co said:


> How is waiting for extreme oversold conditions, and then buying off support levels on the way down, luck?  It's called using the markets ebbs and flows to your advantage.  If it's oversold, it has to make at least a lower high at some point.  Vice-versa for a bullish scenario.
> 
> Yes, risking your entire net worth is too much, but when that amount is small, your entries need to be tigher and your size smaller.  As you grow, you can now up both and still keep money away for a rainy day.  In the end, what is the difference between this and a market neutral strategy such as pairs trading like in the example here in the general chat area?  Both need big contributions per trade, and both are likely to be right, if your wrong, both could be costly.  But the overall % win makes up for that big downer.
> 
> Too many here proclaim a lower % win and higher returns (letting profits run) as the gospel (probably due to Adaptive Analysis).  It's just one way to look at it, but the herd will flock where the herd will flock.
> 
> Note:  I don't trade like this, but it does work.
> 
> Everything works and everything doesn't.  Find your own niche.




Everything and nothing, an album by David Sylvian. Severely oversold conditions in a bear market are awesome little tools. They usually create bear market rallies. So strong they go that you shed a tear. Your own niche for your own psychology! 



Bobby said:


> Hello TH ,
> Its all about having some fun , not sure if you mean trading when pi**ed or going overnight without stops  ?
> Both are really funny to do    life is short enough so why not create some extra thrills along the way  :
> 
> Cartman would love this style of play  ?  Hi Cartman




Haha I trade under the influence, however I do have predetermined entries and exits if I know I wont be a 100% fit. same as if i am closing out something in the night when i know ill be asleep. too hard to wake up and close something out in 30 seconds after an alert. going in overnight without stops is interesting. i obviously do it for the moment. mostly due to IG playing their game. extra thrills are great if you are making money my friend!!


----------



## Bobby

Enjoyed all the replys  !
Thankyou .

PS . This is a most interesting thread


----------



## Family_Guy

Bobby said:


> PS . This is a most interesting thread




Your welcome  ................i think :dimbulb:


----------



## Bobby

Family_Guy said:


> Your welcome  ................i think :dimbulb:




Pleased you are amused , do tell us about your trading  ?   
Whoops sorry , do you do any ..


----------



## Family_Guy

Pl







> eased you are amused , do tell us about your trading ?
> Whoops sorry , do you do any ..





Yes i trade. Successfully not. I tend to only spruik when i make some profit so here are my losses off the top of my head.....and a quik look back at my spreadsheet.

Um......
RIO, thought the price was too good when it hit $90....i sold at $38
BHP, thought the price was too good at $36, sold at $23
BNB, bought at 15c 3 or 4 days before it went and sold at 43 or something and then again at 36c just 15 or 30 mins later only to see it halt that night.....just waiting for Bell to remove it from my portfolio list
GSF......had been riding some nice cycles between 2c and 3c and got on last at 1.1c and it's current highest buy is .4c.......thats gone.
OZL at 1.37, sold at .58
FLT is a current one i got at 6.49
SUN is another current i got at 6.50

CXG, CTX, both i bought too high, sold at a loss and have re bought close to lows and made my losses back over the last few months, but initially lost a bit.

Oh and check this for some dumb siht........
Got BRM at 1.05, MCR at 1.275, MOL at 1.375, QOL and sold them all at 50% or more loss, BRM i bought back in at 45 or 50c............and there were other, GFF for example. It was looking shabby come December, but somehow, i made it all back in Jan/Feb/Mar. So i end my first year as i started, just richer for the experience, a couple of friends, square eyes, and an appreciation for fresh air. I only trade shares, not into derivatives yet......but really keen to learn.

Anyway, i have learnt a valuable lesson in my first yr of serious trading (if thats what you can call it)....its called a stop loss....and greed.


Edit. I put all that on here to shut myself up sometimes i just get carried away with the gains, but losses bite and need to be learnt from. 

Carry on, as you were.


----------



## Bobby

Family_Guy said:


> Pl
> 
> 
> Yes i trade. Successfully not. I tend to only spruik when i make some profit so here are my losses off the top of my head.....and a quik look back at my spreadsheet.
> 
> I only trade shares, not into derivatives yet......but really keen to learn.
> 
> Anyway, i have learnt a valuable lesson in my first yr of serious trading (if thats what you can call it)....its called a stop loss....and greed.




Gee FG you sure have done it tuff , what a year to start    .
 I've stopped share trading & just keep a limited portfolio  , moved on to derivatives as I can control profit & loss on a 24 hour time table .
Do wish you better luck in the future


----------



## ivant

Learning from positives is even better than learning from negatives. You remember what you do right, and continue doing it again


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Learning from positives is even better than learning from negatives. You remember what you do right, and continue doing it again




Hello Ivan ,

Its the big stuff-ups I remember best  

No way I can do a trade so-far tonight


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> Hello Ivan ,
> 
> Its the big stuff-ups I remember best
> 
> No way I can do a trade so-far tonight




yea everyone does! lol  the big losses are the ones. I can't do a trade either. pretty unpredictable at the moment. I'd consider selling DJIA at 8040-8050 with more positions coming in at 8100ish. i think that they will struggle breaking the 8100


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> yea everyone does! lol  the big losses are the ones. I can't do a trade either. pretty unpredictable at the moment. I'd consider selling DJIA at 8040-8050 with more positions coming in at 8100ish. i think that they will struggle breaking the 8100




Be careful , I'm not following the DJIA  
Going to get some sleep , always tomorrow .
SPI just started to mimic the DOW , hope you clean up later.


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> Be careful , I'm not following the DJIA
> Going to get some sleep , always tomorrow .
> SPI just started to mimic the DOW , hope you clean up later.




They all work together at this time  For a short trade, you effectively trade the DJIA. I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again. Hopefully this is soon. Right about the time DJIA touches the 8050-8100 and about the time S&P will be 865-880 i believe. Well in any case, time will see.

Good night


----------



## alwaysLearning

ivant said:


> They all work together at this time  For a short trade, you effectively trade the DJIA. I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again. Hopefully this is soon. Right about the time DJIA touches the 8050-8100 and about the time S&P will be 865-880 i believe. Well in any case, time will see.
> 
> Good night




what do you think of the forex spot market Ivan?

Have you tried any of those forex demo accounts? Maybe with Oanda or such?


----------



## ivant

alwaysLearning said:


> what do you think of the forex spot market Ivan?
> 
> Have you tried any of those forex demo accounts? Maybe with Oanda or such?




Actually I did once. It was out of rage more than anything else. I wanted to see how quickly I can lose 100k. Took me 15 minutes. Started clicking on a currency pair in which I didn't know what country one of the currencies belonged to. On a more serious note, I'm trying to understand currency, but I find it hard. I'm mostly looking at AUD/USD (due to the need to convert crude oil profits/losses back into AUD) and I try look at the Pound US and Euro relationships. I don't think I will trade currency anytime soon though. I just don't feel it at all. Pretty much like equities when I just started trading.


----------



## Aussiest

*e*



ivant said:


> I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again.




A question for you Ivan.

What if your target is not quite met? Would you enter anyway?

Last night, the SPI got to around 3768. Did you enter?

Would you compromise on your entry point? And, if so, by how much?


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> They all work together at this time  For a short trade, you effectively trade the DJIA. I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again. Hopefully this is soon. Right about the time DJIA touches the 8050-8100 and about the time S&P will be 865-880 i believe. Well in any case, time will see.
> 
> Good night




Gee do you think the SPI will be back near 3770 again soon ? 
Crawled out of bed around 9 & checked out those late highs   ouch !
It was going begging .... will have to set the alarm I think .


----------



## shag

well i nearly blew it last year, a house purchase and i held onto my resources over the previous xmas period post purchase, but by then bhp and wpl had dropped considerably before settlement date. i sold the wpl at a then sad 47 (the bulk of portfolio), and just scrapped thru.
over a yr later i've got a house, 47 for wpl looks damn good, and i've built up enough again for the next 30-40pc of a dwelling...
i partly held close to settlement as historically the market perferms ok over new year and jan/feb, supposedly, and i hate cash. but greed and a gamble was a factor too.


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> Gee do you think the SPI will be back near 3770 again soon ?
> Crawled out of bed around 9 & checked out those late highs   ouch !
> It was going begging .... will have to set the alarm I think .




It dropped right down to just under 3700 before market close.

It could go back up to 3770, after last night's rally 

I'm holding out until i get more confirmation...

Shag,

Not really sure what you mean.

Do you mean you almost lost the lot and then traded your way back to buying a house etc?


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> A question for you Ivan.
> 
> What if your target is not quite met? Would you enter anyway?
> 
> Last night, the SPI got to around 3768. Did you enter?
> 
> Would you compromise on your entry point? And, if so, by how much?




I didn't enter, because I'd like a little more confirmation as you noted too. I'd rather get in under 3650 at the moment, then risk the market rallying up to 3900, which is possible in the near term. I can compromise on entry, however id rather compromise on exit, which I usually do anyhow. But I wasn't too happy with the way it was moving, so I will be waiting. (I must admit, I did nearly put shorts in in the morning around the 3760 and would have sold at 3700 (where the channel ends, which is showing some good support at the moment).  



Bobby said:


> Gee do you think the SPI will be back near 3770 again soon ?
> Crawled out of bed around 9 & checked out those late highs   ouch !
> It was going begging .... will have to set the alarm I think .




I have decided I will start going short again at the 3780s, because that forms a head and shoulders. 3860 will be when i continue adding and then some more later on. I'm aiming for around 20-30 full SPI contracts. 



Aussiest said:


> It dropped right down to just under 3700 before market close.
> 
> It could go back up to 3770, after last night's rally
> 
> I'm holding out until i get more confirmation...
> 
> Shag,
> 
> Not really sure what you mean.
> 
> Do you mean you almost lost the lot and then traded your way back to buying a house etc?




I'm with you on the confirmation, as I noted before in this post. Not sure what Shag meant either.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> I didn't enter, because I'd like a little more confirmation as you noted too. I'd rather get in under 3650 at the moment, then risk the market rallying up to 3900, which is possible in the near term. I can compromise on entry, however id rather compromise on exit, which I usually do anyhow. But I wasn't too happy with the way it was moving, so I will be waiting. (I must admit, I did nearly put shorts in in the morning around the 3760 and would have sold at 3700 (where the channel ends, which is showing some good support at the moment).
> 
> I have decided I will start going short again at the 3780s, because that forms a head and shoulders. 3860 will be when i continue adding and then some more later on. I'm aiming for around 20-30 full SPI contracts.
> 
> I'm with you on the confirmation, as I noted before in this post. Not sure what Shag meant either.




I nearly took out a short today and then realised it just wasn't worth it. I want to plan my trades better. At first i would have though 3800 would be a good level to take a short, but if it makes it back up to 3800, it may well push through. I haven't quite worked out my strategy (will do so over the weekend), but am figuring that if it pushes through 3800, it might not be ready for a short until around 4200? If the punters have pushed it through 3800, it might have some more legs behind it 

Anyhow, i am curious. If you're so sure the SPI will go up to 3800 before you take your next short, why don't you go long until then?

Me, i'm not willing to take the risk. I am going to wait for it to drop, so i can go long, or wear itself out on another rally so i can go short (i think). But, first option is definately on the cards.


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> I have decided I will start going short again at the 3780s, because that forms a head and shoulders. 3860 will be when i continue adding and then some more later on. I'm aiming for around 20-30 full SPI contracts.
> 
> 
> 
> .




I,ve got 2 running now , short off  3749 & 3741  just had give it a go 
20 -30 full contracts is BIG in my eyes !  wow thats $750 a point on 30 .,
gee hope you get a run of 50 , thats $37500 nice coin !


Aussiest :
Hope the DOW futures open crook later


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> I,ve got 2 running now , short off  3749 & 3741  just had give it a go
> 20 -30 full contracts is BIG in my eyes !  wow thats $750 a point on 30 .,
> gee hope you get a run of 50 , thats $37500 nice coin !
> 
> 
> Aussiest :
> Hope the DOW futures open crook later




I was going to to go short tonight at 3752, but pulled out. I hope for your sake the DOW runs crook too. I would have been hoping for myself anyway.


----------



## Bobby

Aussiest said:


> I was going to to go short tonight at 3752, but pulled out. I hope for your sake the DOW runs crook too. I would have been hoping for myself anyway.




Thanks "
Best I could have got was 3750 but 3749 is fine for the first one., unless it spurts up in the mean time & I have to reset ..
Well just got to wait now & see what happens when the US futs open .


----------



## Aussiest

Would you set a stop loss at 3750?


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> I nearly took out a short today and then realised it just wasn't worth it. I want to plan my trades better. At first i would have though 3800 would be a good level to take a short, but if it makes it back up to 3800, it may well push through. I haven't quite worked out my strategy (will do so over the weekend), but am figuring that if it pushes through 3800, it might not be ready for a short until around 4200? If the punters have pushed it through 3800, it might have some more legs behind it
> 
> Anyhow, i am curious. If you're so sure the SPI will go up to 3800 before you take your next short, why don't you go long until then?
> 
> Me, i'm not willing to take the risk. I am going to wait for it to drop, so i can go long, or wear itself out on another rally so i can go short (i think). But, first option is definately on the cards.




Haha, 3780 is where I will go short. I am not so sure unfortunately, which is why I got out of my longs at 3715ish. I don't feel comfortable going long at these levels. The risk is too big for me to handle. There are some crucial points at 3780 and 3850, then the top of the channel that I thought we could break today, is 3900ish. I've shorted the markets once already at 3750 sold out at 3600 with about 70 minis. But for me, going long after 6 weeks of a rally, where we gained around 30% is insanity. 



Bobby said:


> I,ve got 2 running now , short off  3749 & 3741  just had give it a go
> 20 -30 full contracts is BIG in my eyes !  wow thats $750 a point on 30 .,
> gee hope you get a run of 50 , thats $37500 nice coin !
> 
> 
> Aussiest :
> Hope the DOW futures open crook later




It is a bit of a trade lol, but I am pretty confident. I am aiming for 3300. 3500 will be the next big pause as long as we can break the current trend. Time shall tell. 



Aussiest said:


> I was going to to go short tonight at 3752, but pulled out. I hope for your sake the DOW runs crook too. I would have been hoping for myself anyway.




I think the DOW will sail smoothly until the 8050 level, and then 8100. Will be interesting to see when the stress tests start coming out and what the traders start doing at those levels. 



Bobby said:


> Thanks "
> Best I could have got was 3750 but 3749 is fine for the first one., unless it spurts up in the mean time & I have to reset ..
> Well just got to wait now & see what happens when the US futs open .




1 point is $5 dollars per contract. Not a big deal my friend. Think big .


----------



## ivant

PS ftse is in a difficult position at the moment, will be hard for it to rally from here. the next time will be about 80 points from here. Not much!


----------



## ivant

ivant said:


> PS ftse is in a difficult position at the moment, will be hard for it to rally from here. the next time will be about 80 points from here. Not much!




PS I will rephrase that haha. The next resistance is about 60 points from here (not 80). There isn't much left in the rally here I think


----------



## Nero64

> but somehow, i made it all back in Jan/Feb/Mar. So i end my first year as i started,




Family Guy it would be good to tell us how you won it back. 

You took some serious hits and I was thinking you either have a lot of capital or your position sizing saved you.


----------



## ivant

To answer an earlier question to Bobby and Aussiest, I just compromised on entry, and started shorting the market. IG must be really angry with me. 4 glitches in a row (they froze and I had to restart the platform each time)!! I am managing 5 accounts all up, of which 2 are mine, and the 3 that are not mine were smooth. Mine was a pain!! Here is one for the glitches and faults page on IG of this forum!!  That IB account will be opened next week!

I have entered about 20% of what I am planning to in around 3765+. Next is as I said at 3780, then 3850 then 3900. Obviously if this all starts falling I will be adding as it breaks the current channel (3640 or lower).


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> To answer an earlier question to Bobby and Aussiest, I just compromised on entry, and started shorting the market. IG must be really angry with me. 4 glitches in a row (they froze and I had to restart the platform each time)!! I am managing 5 accounts all up, of which 2 are mine, and the 3 that are not mine were smooth. Mine was a pain!! Here is one for the glitches and faults page on IG of this forum!!  That IB account will be opened next week!
> 
> I have entered about 20% of what I am planning to in around 3765+. Next is as I said at 3780, then 3850 then 3900. Obviously if this all starts falling I will be adding as it breaks the current channel (3640 or lower).




haha, i was just going to ask if you'd compromised! And, then to ask "what happens if you don't meet your target", incase the index doesn't reach 3780. Will be interesting, not sure what i am going to do. I outlined my reasoning before, maybe i'll stick to that.


----------



## Aussiest

Hi Bobby,

I hope you're doing okay


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> To answer an earlier question to Bobby and Aussiest, I just compromised on entry, and started shorting the market. IG must be really angry with me. 4 glitches in a row (they froze and I had to restart the platform each time)!! I am managing 5 accounts all up, of which 2 are mine, and the 3 that are not mine were smooth. Mine was a pain!! Here is one for the glitches and faults page on IG of this forum!!  That IB account will be opened next week!
> 
> I have entered about 20% of what I am planning to in around 3765+. Next is as I said at 3780, then 3850 then 3900. Obviously if this all starts falling I will be adding as it breaks the current channel (3640 or lower).




I jumped in to early & now out , 3767 as I type , Dow is up & chopping some ,
Will see if it keeps going before  before another entry later .
Ivan you may be to early like I was  but whats a few points as long as it crashes later   good luck ..


----------



## Aussiest

This is what's worrying me:

"Most companies have managed to beat tempered expectations and traders may latch on to the positivism, as they fervently hope for a turnaround in economic conditions. Ford (F), Amazon (AMZN) and American Express (AXP) were among the companies, which reported better-than-expected results. Additionally, a rally in price of commodities is likely to generate buying interest in the space."

This was taken from the ADVFN Newsletter. 

Link http://www.advfn.com If you're interested. It states the obvious, but sometimes it's a good read.


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> I jumped in to early & now out , 3767 as I type , Dow is up & chopping some ,
> Will see if it keeps going before  before another entry later .
> Ivan you may be to early like I was  but whats a few points as long as it crashes later   good luck ..




Good work, i'm glad you got out.


----------



## Bobby

Aussiest said:


> Good work, i'm glad you got out.




Yep jumped when it got to hot , was tempted a moment ago to re-entry off 3771 but Dow still looks like it could do anything .
Getting tied & no point trying to place a stop & going to bed as they get hit by the magic spike


----------



## ivant

Haha maybe, but I still have a very light position. I only have 30 mini contracts in. I'll be doubling that as it moves higher, possibly even 3780-3800. Then I will add 40 at 3850. I don't see it likely that it will break higher that that, but if it does, I have another 20 that I'll add later. That will take my personal position to 24. Once it starts moving I might add a little more. Time will tell.

Some really good news out today, S&P is still struggling with 865. DJIA is around 8050 still. Once DJIA hits 8175 I will be entering the 3780-3800 ones. This one feels okay now. I realised I'm happier in this trade than out of it. I have to put up with these contracts for a few weeks now lol.


----------



## ivant

PS 880 is the magic level on S&P... Don't see them breaking that. If it does, anything can happen then. I mean a 3%+ break. We are getting overbought in the short term.


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Haha maybe, but I still have a very light position. I only have 30 mini contracts in. I'll be doubling that as it moves higher, possibly even 3780-3800. Then I will add 40 at 3850. I don't see it likely that it will break higher that that, but if it does, I have another 20 that I'll add later. That will take my personal position to 24. Once it starts moving I might add a little more. Time will tell.
> 
> Some really good news out today, S&P is still struggling with 865. DJIA is around 8050 still. Once DJIA hits 8175 I will be entering the 3780-3800 ones. This one feels okay now. I realised I'm happier in this trade than out of it. I have to put up with these contracts for a few weeks now lol.




Wow your going in big time then as it shoots  what a way to go !!!
No stops ! they can't do stuff all , HaHaHaaa'''''''
And your going to hold for weeks ~ incredible trading if you pull it off  and you probably will   :bowdown::bowdown:  :


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> Wow your going in big time then as it shoots  what a way to go !!!
> No stops ! they can't do stuff all , HaHaHaaa'''''''
> And your going to hold for weeks ~ incredible trading if you pull it off  and you probably will   :bowdown::bowdown:  :




Haha you have given me victory well before it has come. I am going about double what I usually do for 2 reasons:

1) Statistically there is a massive chance of a pullback here
2) I feel good about the markets at the moment. 

Hopefully it doesn't backfire 

Still hoping this goes up a little more. 3780 suddenly doesn't seem amazing. I still might enter soon I don't know lol.


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Haha you have given me victory well before it has come. I am going about double what I usually do for 2 reasons:
> 
> 1) Statistically there is a massive chance of a pullback here
> 2) I feel good about the markets at the moment.
> 
> Hopefully it doesn't backfire
> 
> Still hoping this goes up a little more. 3780 suddenly doesn't seem amazing. I still might enter soon I don't know lol.




I won't wish you good luck as you seem to create your own 

I think that pullback is getting close real close , looks like it will go 3780 +
wish I could stay awake 
Those 2 accounts of yours still playing up ? lucky you can deal through the other ones , stinks ! gotta be careful of whats said


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> I won't wish you good luck as you seem to create your own
> 
> I think that pullback is getting close real close , looks like it will go 3780 +
> wish I could stay awake
> Those 2 accounts of yours still playing up ? lucky you can deal through the other ones , stinks ! gotta be careful of whats said




Ha! Extra luck always helps!! . The other accounts are not mine, I just manage them. They belong to my parents. The pullback is definitely close!! So much good news, and such a little response is not good. It seems the line of least resistance is to the downside at the moment though...

Thanks for sticking around


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Ha! Extra luck always helps!! . The other accounts are not mine, I just manage them. They belong to my parents. The pullback is definitely close!! So much good news, and such a little response is not good. It seems the line of least resistance is to the downside at the moment though...
> 
> Thanks for sticking around




OK I'll throw in some Luck  !
This up & up must be close to falling down down down .....
If it hangs on a bit more you have factored that in so all should be ok .

Love to take some trades but would need to stay up to monitor them , as I said before ``` stops get hit  

Sorry but going to hit the sack , hope all turns out good tonight , bye for now  
 .


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> OK I'll throw in some Luck  !
> This up & up must be close to falling down down down .....
> If it hangs on a bit more you have factored that in so all should be ok .
> 
> Love to take some trades but would need to stay up to monitor them , as I said before ``` stops get hit
> 
> Sorry but going to hit the sack , hope all turns out good tonight , bye for now
> .




Lol! Thanks a lot! Have a good night! Stops are evil when it comes to MMs


----------



## Aussiest

How'd the SPI go last night? 

What did it peak at? And, what did it end on?

(surprise, surprise. IG Markets' platform is down)


----------



## jersey10

ivant said:


> 1) Statistically there is a massive chance of a pullback here




What statistics do you have that leads you to this conclusion?


----------



## Bobby

Aussiest said:


> How'd the SPI go last night?
> 
> What did it peak at? And, what did it end on?
> 
> (surprise, surprise. IG Markets' platform is down)




Hit 3784 , just like Ivan thought it would !   finished bid 75 - ask 79 .

Aussiest     If you want independent free live SPI data look here :-- http://sfetradinggame.if5.com/home.aspx


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> How'd the SPI go last night?
> 
> What did it peak at? And, what did it end on?
> 
> (surprise, surprise. IG Markets' platform is down)




IG Markets closes the platform down on the weekend for maintenance. I got some more shorts in between 3780.5-3783.5, which was the peak on the sell side. The highest it got is 3783.5/3790.5. 

Mostly interested in what Monday will bring. If we rally, we will get overbought. I think its the end of the line for the DOW/S&P500, will be interesting to see what it brings on Monday night. 



jersey10 said:


> What statistics do you have that leads you to this conclusion?




Statistically US markets peak when between 75% and 80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 day moving averages. Currently we are at 80%. There are other reasons too, but I have outlined them earlier in the post and in my blog.


----------



## Rick_Hunter

Hey Ivan, firstly, thanks alot for your input into how you trade the SPI latey, it's definitely very interesting and helped me out heaps the last week or so (noobie here!). Would be great if you can keep your thoughts going on this thread or your blog .

Just a few quick questions:

- I understand how you pyramid when things are against you, but how do you pyramid when things go your way? For example, the asx200 is currently banding between 3700-3800ish lately. if you started at 3800 and pyramided at 3700 on top of your short positions, you'll just end up breaking even once it rebounds to 3800. Or do you add to your position once it clearly breaks below 3700?

- How long do you usually hold onto your positions? I find that I always struggle to hold onto some of my winning positions once it's starting to go my way, even if i have set myself targets to reach

cheers.


----------



## Aussiest

I used to sell prematurely when a position went in my favour.

It hit me like a flash of lightening today that i need to be objective and totally detached when trading, so therefore, i will set my trades. Wait for them to hit 'break even', before i get too excited. You need to eliminate the excitement from your trading.

(Thanks tech/a for making me see the light / helping me through that part of it  )


----------



## Cartman

Rick_Hunter said:


> Hey Ivan, firstly, thanks alot for your input into how you trade the SPI latey, it's definitely very interesting and helped me out heaps the last week or so (noobie here!). *Would be great if you can keep your thoughts going on this thread* or your blog .




Totally agree Rick ---- Ivan has set an interesting precedent (thats an understatement!!)  with what he's done, and i reckon all of us are keen to see how he continues to attack the market ---

i go on public record and say im happy to be his manager    LOL --- (my fees are very reasonable)  ------ now whats 1% of 400 grand ..... haha ---  just kidding "IVE" !! --- thats right --- good managers are worth 4 or 5 % --- im being *underpaid*  ----     Good luck with it young M8 ---


----------



## ivant

Rick_Hunter said:


> Hey Ivan, firstly, thanks alot for your input into how you trade the SPI latey, it's definitely very interesting and helped me out heaps the last week or so (noobie here!). Would be great if you can keep your thoughts going on this thread or your blog .
> 
> Just a few quick questions:
> 
> - I understand how you pyramid when things are against you, but how do you pyramid when things go your way? For example, the asx200 is currently banding between 3700-3800ish lately. if you started at 3800 and pyramided at 3700 on top of your short positions, you'll just end up breaking even once it rebounds to 3800. Or do you add to your position once it clearly breaks below 3700?
> 
> - How long do you usually hold onto your positions? I find that I always struggle to hold onto some of my winning positions once it's starting to go my way, even if i have set myself targets to reach
> 
> cheers.




Hey, thanks for the reply  I am very glad I have been of help 

The problem with me is that I am not a trend trader, and so it is difficult for me to pyramid when things go my way. I mostly play oversold/overbought levels and as a result I find it hard to pyramid when things are my way, because the longer a position goes my way the closer I am to reversing my position. 

I hold on to positions based on psychology and I wait for a trend to die off. I was long in the market for a few months and started going short a few weeks ago (as i mentioned earlier). I do try to do some trend following when I am in a position, but it is something I am trying to get better at over time. I held onto all the 25% gain over the months because it didn't seem to show any weakness in the rally. There was a major resistance level at 880 on the S&P and there was no major doubt that it would rally to those levels. Like in this down leg, it seems logical we will lose at least 50% of the rally, and most likely retest the lows again before October. Maybe try to imagine that you are holding onto a losing position when you are winning and treat a losing position as a winning one? It helps. But it is one of the hardest tricks of the game, to hold onto winners. It starts to come with experience.  




Aussiest said:


> I used to sell prematurely when a position went in my favour.
> 
> It hit me like a flash of lightening today that i need to be objective and totally detached when trading, so therefore, i will set my trades. Wait for them to hit 'break even', before i get too excited. You need to eliminate the excitement from your trading.
> 
> (Thanks tech/a for making me see the light / helping me through that part of it  )




Excitement is an evil in trading  you are right. This is a business like any other, and a cool head helps  I found that its better not to be in a trade if you are not thinking straight. You see things you missed if your trade is closed out


----------



## ivant

Cartman said:


> Totally agree Rick ---- Ivan has set an interesting precedent (thats an understatement!!)  with what he's done, and i reckon all of us are keen to see how he continues to attack the market ---
> 
> i go on public record and say im happy to be his manager    LOL --- (my fees are very reasonable)  ------ now whats 1% of 400 grand ..... haha ---  just kidding "IVE" !! --- thats right --- good managers are worth 4 or 5 % --- im being *underpaid*  ----     Good luck with it young M8 ---




Haha thanks my friend! What aspects would you like to manage?  Willing to accept offers .. I am rather aggressively bearish at the moment, so my "attack" will be rather biased 

By the way Go Markets is back up apparently Cartman


----------



## Cartman

ivant said:


> Haha thanks my friend! What aspects would you like to manage?  Willing to accept offers .. I am rather aggressively bearish at the moment, so my "attack" will be rather biased
> 
> By the way *Go Markets is back up apparently* Cartman




Haha ---- yes i can get my cunning *"Bend it like Ivan"* forex system in full training mode !!   ---- 

As for the managing part ---- i have contacts in the film industry --- are you good looking ---- lol ----   how did that David Essex song go years ago ---- "We're gona make you a Star !!"   lol ----


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> But it is one of the hardest tricks of the game, to hold onto winners. It starts to come with experience.
> ...........
> Excitement is an evil in trading  you are right. This is a business like any other, and a cool head helps  I found that its better not to be in a trade if you are not thinking straight. You see things you missed if your trade is closed out




I was looking at it tonight like a numbers game. Take out a position. If it gets stopped out, try again later (when 'conditions' are right). Ditto to the above. The best case scenario is that you get to break even. After that, everything else is a bonus.

Eg. I try trade1. I get stopped out at b/e
I try trade2, i lose a little
trade3: get passed b/e> who knows? Rest is bonus.
trade4: ???

Just my


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> I was looking at it tonight like a numbers game. Take out a position. If it gets stopped out, try again later (when 'conditions' are right). Ditto to the above. The best case scenario is that you get to break even. After that, everything else is a bonus.
> 
> Eg. I try trade1. I get stopped out at b/e
> I try trade2, i lose a little
> trade3: get passed b/e> who knows? Rest is bonus.
> trade4: ???
> 
> Just my




Interesting. I always aim to make a major profit on a trade, otherwise I don't bother getting in. I usually cut it a little shorter, so I am usually a little disappointed  



Cartman said:


> Haha ---- yes i can get my cunning *"Bend it like Ivan"* forex system in full training mode !!   ----
> 
> As for the managing part ---- i have contacts in the film industry --- are you good looking ---- lol ----   how did that David Essex song go years ago ---- "We're gona make you a Star !!"   lol ----




haha so I am going to be an actor now? haha. Girls don't mind me  haha. Bend it like Ivan Forex System haha....  Love it


----------



## MRC & Co

Aussiest said:


> I was looking at it tonight like a numbers game. Take out a position. If it gets stopped out, try again later (when 'conditions' are right). Ditto to the above. The best case scenario is that you get to break even. After that, everything else is a bonus.
> 
> Eg. I try trade1. I get stopped out at b/e
> I try trade2, i lose a little
> trade3: get passed b/e> who knows? Rest is bonus.
> trade4: ???
> 
> Just my




Tech, is that you?  

hehe, just kidding, looks good.


----------



## Rick_Hunter

the only thing with this type of futures trading thats nearly 24 hours is how the hell can you sleep properly and completely shut off what's going on in the US/europe etc. been feeling like a zombie all last week waking up every 1-2hrs, not sure if i wanna do it again this week

i can understand if your dont have work and do this full time, you can sleep between when aussie market close and 1hr or so before US market open :S

think in the long run, this is going to be detrimental to my health. anyone who works full time got any tips on asx200 futures trading??


----------



## ivant

Rick_Hunter said:


> the only thing with this type of futures trading thats nearly 24 hours is how the hell can you sleep properly and completely shut off what's going on in the US/europe etc. been feeling like a zombie all last week waking up every 1-2hrs, not sure if i wanna do it again this week
> 
> i can understand if your dont have work and do this full time, you can sleep between when aussie market close and 1hr or so before US market open :S
> 
> think in the long run, this is going to be detrimental to my health. anyone who works full time got any tips on asx200 futures trading??




Lol, I do do this full time. I actually get a lot of sleep. I have learnt to fall asleep very quickly after checking markets. It was hard at the start though. Now I have adapted. I end up sleeping throughout the open of the Aussie markets most of the time, unless I actually have decided to do something at open. I will have an alarm that will wake me up and i can check up on what is happening. So i still get a good 8-10 hours with breaks. There are times of course, like last Friday, i was at home and up until 6am on saturday. But that is rare. I think a strategy needs to be based on what you feel comfortable with. I am very happy with this timetable


----------



## Edwood

Rick_Hunter said:


> the only thing with this type of futures trading thats nearly 24 hours is how the hell can you sleep properly and completely shut off what's going on in the US/europe etc. been feeling like a zombie all last week waking up every 1-2hrs, not sure if i wanna do it again this week
> 
> i can understand if your dont have work and do this full time, you can sleep between when aussie market close and 1hr or so before US market open :S
> 
> think in the long run, this is going to be detrimental to my health. anyone who works full time got any tips on asx200 futures trading??




you need to be on the ball for any trading, no point flogging yourself with late nights on SPI when you already have a full-time job.  Imo pick another instrument that fits in better with your timetable - European open works quite well for our side of the planet.  Or change your strategy so you don't have to be up watching


----------



## Aussiest

Are you still bearish on the SPI Ivan?!


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Are you still bearish on the SPI Ivan?!




Actually, very much so! I've been adding positions today. I'll be a little worried if S&P 500 breaches 900... In the meantime, I'm still watching for a good drop today and tomorrow... Time will tell though... I'm a good 30k down and I have more than 100 mini contracts riding on this.


----------



## jersey10

ivant said:


> Actually, very much so! I've been adding positions today. I'll be a little worried if S&P 500 breaches 900... In the meantime, I'm still watching for a good drop today and tomorrow... Time will tell though... I'm a good 30k down and I have more than 100 mini contracts riding on this.




Balls of steel


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> I'm a good 30k down and I have more than 100 mini contracts riding on this.




God, i thought i was bad being $500 down! Fingers crossed for a downturn


----------



## Rick_Hunter

I think the SPI is testing everyone's patience for the last few weeks. People have "all" been watching and waiting for this 'meaningful' correction, only to be disappointed again and again (including me!)

Would be funny when everyone finally gives up the idea that this correction will ever come, it'll suddenly arrive. Can't help but feel sometimes theres a group of major institutions out there holding things up and getting ready to dump it on ppl once most/more start turning bullish.


----------



## kapow

ivant said:


> Actually, very much so! I've been adding positions today. I'll be a little worried if S&P 500 breaches 900... In the meantime, I'm still watching for a good drop today and tomorrow... Time will tell though... I'm a good 30k down and I have more than 100 mini contracts riding on this.



Good luck man! Unfortunately I couldn't afford to keep my shorts open this afternoon but I am with you in spirit!


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Actually, very much so! I've been adding positions today. I'll be a little worried if S&P 500 breaches 900... In the meantime, I'm still watching for a good drop today and tomorrow... Time will tell though... I'm a good 30k down and I have more than 100 mini contracts riding on this.




Ivan I got stung going short  , last night I had to close out at 3am    can't run stops as you know why , to weary to stay up ....

You are down 30K that would really sh*t me off  : ---- this up is BS !!!

 Managed to short on at the the top tonight 3727 , see what happens .


----------



## nomore4s

Maybe it's time to fade the crowd and go long?


----------



## Bobby

nomore4s said:


> Maybe it's time to fade the crowd and go long?




Gee you could be right but I'm agro & can't do it


----------



## Aussiest

nomore4s said:


> Maybe it's time to fade the crowd and go long?




Pftt... as soon as you do that, the position will turn around and reverse itself... Lol


----------



## Rick_Hunter

ivant said:


> Actually, very much so! I've been adding positions today. I'll be a little worried if S&P 500 breaches 900... In the meantime, I'm still watching for a good drop today and tomorrow... Time will tell though... I'm a good 30k down and I have more than 100 mini contracts riding on this.




hey Ivan, just wondering, you say that you're worried if it S&P500 goes beyond 900, what type of exit strategy you have? As far as I can tell, your strategy is based on your belief of 'oversold' or 'overbought' and if it goes the opposite direction, you pyramid up until it finally goes your way. When do you throw in the towel and exit? Even though it'll be an extremely painful exit imo.


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> this up is BS !!!




This up is all about false hopes. Based on nothing. GDP in the US was down, new home sales are down. Unemployment will no doubt increase. ANZ and NAB posted losses (but, i guess the market has factored that in).

Why are people going long? This rally is based on nothing but over-inflated bull****.

Now is the deadcat bounce. You wait and see...


----------



## Bobby

Aussiest said:


> This up is all about false hopes. Based on nothing. GDP in the US was down, new home sales are down. Unemployment will no doubt increase. ANZ and NAB posted losses (but, i guess the market has factored that in).
> 
> Why are people going long? This rally is based on nothing but over-inflated bull****.
> 
> Now is the deadcat bounce. You wait and see...




Hope your right Aussiest , this up & up is without logic ?


----------



## Aussiest

Hmm, i don't know. But, i don't see any common sense to it, apart from the fact that a *recession *and *bad news is already factored *into the markets?

It is my guess that it will correct at 4,000-4,100. Don't know why, it's just a feeling i get. Meanwhile i am short. Not sure whether to close out my position or continue and pyramid down 

Youch. I'll deal with it later


----------



## nomore4s

Aussiest said:


> This up is all about false hopes. Based on nothing. GDP in the US was down, new home sales are down. Unemployment will no doubt increase. ANZ and NAB posted losses (but, i guess the market has factored that in).
> 
> Why are people going long? This rally is based on nothing but over-inflated bull****.
> 
> Now is the deadcat bounce. You wait and see...




Aussiest don't let your bias/beliefs get in the way of staying open minded about the markets. Our job as traders is to trade what is in front of us not what we think should happen.

All that bad news has been beaten into everyone for months now, none of it is unexpected. Everyone that wanted to sell are now out of the market, the panic has subsided and as all the sellers are now out of the market the line of least resistance is up - for now anyway. 
The people who were buying in at the bottom in the face of all the gloom & doom are not going to be shaken out easily I wouldn't think, so this again creates less supply. So while demand might not be what it once was, at this point of time supply has dried up.

I have no idea what the market will do tomorrow or next week but what I do know is I'm getting alot of signals to go long but not many short signals. These signals might turn out to be false but my job as a trader is to trust my system and manage my risks so if I'm wrong I get out with minimal damage done.

My


----------



## Bobby

Aussiest said:


> Hmm, i don't know. But, i don't see any common sense to it, apart from the fact that a *recession *and *bad news is already factored *into the markets?
> 
> It is my guess that it will correct at 4,000-4,100. Don't know why, it's just a feeling i get. Meanwhile i am short. Not sure whether to close out my position or continue and pyramid down
> 
> Youch. I'll deal with it later




Never commit to any position completely, I've done that & been smashed , if it goes over 3727 I'll close out & stay up & take another short higher then .
When the drop happens I'll be on board I hope . ??  

Dow is up as I type  + 106  .....


----------



## Aussiest

nomore4s said:


> Aussiest don't let your bias/beliefs get in the way of staying open minded about the markets. Our job as traders is to trade what is in front of us not what we think should happen.




True.



nomore4s said:


> All that bad news has been beaten into everyone for months now, none of it is unexpected. Everyone that wanted to sell are now out of the market, the panic has subsided and as all the sellers are now out of the market the line of least resistance is up - for now anyway.
> The people who were buying in at the bottom in the face of all the gloom & doom are not going to be shaken out easily I wouldn't think, so this again creates less supply. So while demand might not be what it once was, at this point of time supply has dried up.




Good points...

Will be interesting. I too feel that we have become habituated to all the bad news.


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> Never commit to any position completely, I've done that & been smashed , if it goes over 3727 I'll close out & stay up & take another short higher then .
> When the drop happens I'll be on board I hope . ??
> 
> Dow is up as I type  + 106  .....




Bloody Dow


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boys for now I think ya pushing against the action. Ya livin in the past (not to say that will be the future )

nice little example here.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/04/nice-measure-of-stock-market-resilience.html


----------



## nomore4s

Trembling Hand said:


> Boys for now I think ya pushing against the action. Ya livin in the past (not to say that will be the future )
> 
> nice little example here.
> 
> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/04/nice-measure-of-stock-market-resilience.html




Thanks for the link TH, interesting read.


----------



## Bobby

Trembling Hand said:


> Boys for now I think ya pushing against the action. Ya livin in the past (not to say that will be the future )
> 
> nice little example here.
> 
> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/04/nice-measure-of-stock-market-resilience.html




Thanks TH , can't read it now as I'm trading with no stops .

Just a thought , your incredible skill  at scalping is not just reading the DOM   its seeing the ..................
I'll pm you how I think you do it if you wish ,  it hit me late today , see why you like the opening & close action ..


----------



## ivant

Hey guys,

As i said im pretty bearish at the moment still. In actual fact I am more than ever. Just concentrating on the points. My entries are not that bad, im around the 3780, and i have 120 minis in now. Whether i am right or wrong only time will tell, but it really feels like im still against the crowd.

To me the movement is not convincing still. the 200 SMA and EMA are around the 900 for the S&P 500 and I find it hard to see it breaking that at this rate. 8350 is the figure i am watching on the DJIA. I think I will close if there is a 3% breach of those levels, which will be painful indeed.

We have not been as overbought since May, and we went from 6 to 4.8 thousand over 2 months. Short-term is hard for me to predict, and i think that at this rate we could go a little higher, but who knows when people start selling.

This seems like a little last squeeze getting a few of the shorts to panic. there are some good reasons why we should go lower though, other than some technicals i look at. the big one is the very pricey stocks at the moment, with around 85% of the top 500 S&P companies over their 52 week MA, and that has been a great predictor of a turn. 

I am waiting for shorts to come back in today, i am feeling a little sad without them lately. ... End of the month today, so we will see what happens over the next few hours, but I get the feeling some last-hour short selling is not out of the question


----------



## Bobby

One thing is for sure I'm going to catch the drop or pay the price !


----------



## ivant

P.S. watching for the gap to close tonight...


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> P.S. watching for the gap to close tonight...




Hello Ivan ,

 Ups & ups ? thrown me out of kilter  ..


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> Hello Ivan ,
> 
> Ups & ups ? thrown me out of kilter  ..




Lol, the gap did get closed though, as they often do in the US.  They tested those levels, and so far were unsuccessful. Good for the shorts. If they retest again, and fail, we could get a severe pullback. Alternatively, we may not even retest, see how the last hour plays out...


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Lol, the gap did get closed though, as they often do in the US.  They tested those levels, and so far were unsuccessful. Good for the shorts. If they retest again, and fail, we could get a severe pullback. Alternatively, we may not even retest, see how the last hour plays out...




Hi , I closed out at 3795 silly me ! for a 2 months supply of beer   not sure about whats going on with this market so playing it tight for a change .

Can't stay up as long as you , good luck as Dow on the way down  .


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> Hi , I closed out at 3795 silly me ! for a 2 months supply of beer   not sure about whats going on with this market so playing it tight for a change .
> 
> Can't stay up as long as you , good luck as Dow on the way down  .




Yea I think i'll be sleeping soon too . It gets really quiet until the last hour anyhow. Market is weird at the moment, no argument from me. It should have been down a few weeks ago.

P.S. good night!


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Yea I think i'll be sleeping soon too . It gets really quiet until the last hour anyhow. Market is weird at the moment, no argument from me. It should have been down a few weeks ago.
> 
> P.S. good night!




Good night & agree its weird


----------



## Aussiest

Family_Guy, sorry for hijacking your thread! But, i have to say, wasn't today the weirdest day (in the markets)?

Just seems like the ceiling of the bounce, or the floor of the next run up... More likely to be the ceiling of bounce. The SPI hasn't rallied at all.

I'm guessing that where the All Ords ends up tonight will be important .

Should be interesting...


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Family_Guy, sorry for hijacking your thread! But, i have to say, wasn't today the weirdest day (in the markets)?
> 
> Just seems like the ceiling of the bounce, or the floor of the next run up... More likely to be the ceiling of bounce. The SPI hasn't rallied at all.
> 
> I'm guessing that where the All Ords ends up tonight will be important .
> 
> Should be interesting...




I do feel bad for hijacking the thread! How about one here... I think its only fair we discuss strategies here and not so much particular moves .

I'll reply there


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Boys for now I think ya pushing against the action. Ya livin in the past (not to say that will be the future )
> 
> nice little example here.
> 
> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/04/nice-measure-of-stock-market-resilience.html




But if the SPY (500) in April is generally gapping down and trading back up, wouldn't this infer Asia/Europe on average are gapping up and trading back down?  So one showing resilience, the other showing vulnerability?  Who leads who?  Or am I confusing myself?


----------



## alwaysLearning

Hey Ivan, if you see this, I was wondering if you could take a quick look at the article at the link below (it's not long):
http://ragheehorner.com/blog/?p=586

Specifically I'm interested in if you agree with this quote from the article and just your general thoughts on it:


> I also don’t like the idea because it somehow insinuates that trading is like gambling or craps…which in some ways I acknowledge it is…but I believe there is less left to change when trading.  Friends of mine who are great traders and gamblers succeed because of discipline and knowing when to vary their bet size.  That’s not luck or a formula, that comes from identifying when the momentum is on your side!


----------



## ivant

alwaysLearning said:


> Hey Ivan, if you see this, I was wondering if you could take a quick look at the article at the link below (it's not long):
> http://ragheehorner.com/blog/?p=586
> 
> Specifically I'm interested in if you agree with this quote from the article and just your general thoughts on it:




Mm, without doubt an interesting little response to an interesting question. I definitely agree with this response in the way I trade, because the idea of a stop-loss with a percentage of loss can backfire heavily. For example, let us assume a market trading between 100 and 200 points for a few months in a strong sideways channel. If you believe at 120 that the market will rally, and it doesn't, a stop-loss could in theory stop you out before the market even reaches 100, even though that there wasn't even a confirmation of a break.

However, if your strategy relies on scalping and catching small swings, a stop-loss has a different use, in which it actually works in the correct method. You don't lose more than a particular percentage of your account, and in essence the thing that pulls you through is the positive expectancy of your strategy.

So I guess to summarize, depends for who. For a directional trader like myself, I look for a confirmation of a break of a pattern, and thus my idea of closing out a losing trade is a little different to someone who relies on a stop loss for positive expectancy of their strategy. 

Hope it helps in anyway


----------



## alwaysLearning

ivant said:


> Mm, without doubt an interesting little response to an interesting question. I definitely agree with this response in the way I trade, because the idea of a stop-loss with a percentage of loss can backfire heavily. For example, let us assume a market trading between 100 and 200 points for a few months in a strong sideways channel. If you believe at 120 that the market will rally, and it doesn't, a stop-loss could in theory stop you out before the market even reaches 100, even though that there wasn't even a confirmation of a break.
> 
> However, if your strategy relies on scalping and catching small swings, a stop-loss has a different use, in which it actually works in the correct method. You don't lose more than a particular percentage of your account, and in essence the thing that pulls you through is the positive expectancy of your strategy.
> 
> So I guess to summarize, depends for who. For a directional trader like myself, I look for a confirmation of a break of a pattern, and thus my idea of closing out a losing trade is a little different to someone who relies on a stop loss for positive expectancy of their strategy.
> 
> Hope it helps in anyway




Yeah that does help. Food for thought, that's for sure. I really need to test a few things out now. Many thanks for your response


----------



## DB008

Great thread!!!


----------



## nunthewiser

thanks danny


----------



## ivant

Thank you indeed


----------



## nunthewiser

hahahah i was just being a tossa ......

havent contributed squat in here


----------



## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> hahahah i was just being a tossa ......
> 
> havent contributed squat in here




Haha actually you did 



> this isnt proof of anything actually but hey good luck to ya ..........hang on i,ll just post a result too
> 
> 
> DEAL Closing trades 33/12/08 BSWQ78AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$77777777777777,287.50
> 
> 
> yes i done did real good there




Just joking... hahaha. good times


----------



## Tradesurfer

One thing you may want to consider is defining your strategy. Are you a trend trader or someone looking to a range. One of the challenges of using indicators is that some work better during trending markets and some work best during sideways markets. The key is use them the appropriate way. Many rangebound or channel indicators can be changed settings wise to make them trending ones. Stochastics is a perfect example of this. I prefer the slow stochastics but for a trend trader, it will have you sell at the start of a great trend or worse short sell when it shows overbought only to go much higher resulting in big losses. Take a look at slow stochastics and consider the default 80/20 overbought oversold on the slow study- or to turn into a trending indicator, switch your line to the 40 or 50 level and then when the faster line of the two on the slow stochastics reaches greater than the midpoint- that may potentially be your entry. Traders really need to understand the different applications of the same indicator though. Shoot me any questions and I'd be happy to help more


----------



## DB008

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stochastic_oscillator


----------



## Happy Profits!

*Johnny Come Lately*

Wow, what an epic thread!! Most enjoyable. Now I'm gonna hafta dig out the one with TH proving himself.

Reading thru this, I notice 2 distinct tones:

1) Those who are won over and accept;

2) Those who are 'warning' ivant about 'bad things' to come...with an almost malicious undertone of wanting him to fail...altho' I highly doubt that will affect him much. C'mon, you don't think he's already undergone/heard ALL the negative stuff while he was trading his way up? eg. from even his parents.

I'm sure most of us have had naysayers in our lives as we've embarked upon this, The Trader's Path. I mean, when 'Efficient Market' critics like Malkiel harp on about the impossibility of guys like Buffett actually being able to make money out of the markets, we side with Buffett (or at least, I do). So the only difference here is the DEGREE of success that ivant has demonstrated so far. I think, I hope, we're all on the same spectrum, except that we're only on different points (geez, I hope that's the right analogy). Allow me a Hallmark moment here: 'The bumble-bee is not aerodynamically built to fly yet it doesn't know this and flies anyway'.

To ivant, I will NEVER be able to replicate the multiplying you have done (in the same time frame) because I only ever risk* 2-5% of my capital on any one trade but like Cartman, I too have a stupid grin on my face from being happy for you. I salute your testicular fortitude. Very classy of you btw, for apologising to Family Guy for hijacking his thread, of which I'm about to do now...sorry dude

Unlike many, I will not be picking your brains for the SPI movements. I however, would hope that you open a fund of some kind so that I could buy in...on the drawdowns, of course: and only 2-4% at a time.

To Cartman - great sleuthing, my portly fellow. And for providing a positive vibe to the thread and for not summarily dismissing his claims. "Your mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open" Yada Yada Yada...

At the risk of sounding stupid, what the hell, this thread has already had enough of that, ivant, did you mean Warren Buffett's *"Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy"*?



ivant said:


> Haha actually you did ...
> 
> Just joking... hahaha. good times




LOL, *ZING*!

Finally, to ivant, to Family Guy, to all of us traders, may your wins come swift and easy & may your losses be also swift and easy. 

* I started out the right way IMHO. That is, with a loss. My first ever trade was ALL my capital on Telstra-2...we know how that went. I sucked up the pain for 5 years, waited until Trujillo came in, the price spike came and I jettisoned the turd. Meanwhile, I had been ever-learning...about position-sizing, money management etc.


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