# How high can the All Ords go?



## OzWaveGuy (21 November 2008)

Anyone?


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## chops_a_must (21 November 2008)

Well, some incredibly taxing empirical study has told me 6853 or there abouts.


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## OzWaveGuy (21 November 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Well, some incredibly taxing empirical study has told me 6853 or there abouts.




er - How high can the all ords go (from now on)


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## mayk (21 November 2008)

Starting now, my projections are:

Short term 4200.       (3-6 months)
Medium term 4800.   (12-18 months)
Long term 7200.        (18-24 months)
Long long term 8800. (2-5 years)


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## hotbmw (21 November 2008)

my projections:
Short term 3800. (3-6 months)
Medium term 4600. (12-18 months)
Long term 5400. (18-24 months)
Long long term 7300. (5 years)


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## Sean K (21 November 2008)

By 3014 we might be in the 100 thousands, maybe a little higher.


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## drsmith (21 November 2008)

6873.20 if someone can turn back the clock.


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## Gundini (21 November 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:


> Anyone?




You start a thread with one word?

Amazing, lol....


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## OzWaveGuy (21 November 2008)

Gundini said:


> You start a thread with one word?
> 
> Amazing, lol....




It is 

It'll be even more amazing several weeks from now. There is a reason.


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## billhill (21 November 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:
			
		

> It'll be even more amazing several weeks from now. There is a reason.




Care to ellaborate?


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## Sean K (21 November 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:


> It is
> 
> It'll be even more amazing several weeks from now. There is a reason.



V bottom?

30% recovery?


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## Aussiejeff (21 November 2008)

Wow man!!

I just tried some of them Magik Mushies Mr Stevens had before his lunch th' other day...

Hoo-eeee..... Look at all them purty rose-tinted colours!!

Hahaha! Gee, I'm feeling GREAT now. I reckon 10,000pts by XMAS dudes..!! 

Wheeeee.......!!!!!

:bananasmi


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## Sean K (22 November 2008)

Marc Faber calling a strong rally in the next 3 months.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=935450306&play=1

Even thinks spec gold companies may rally (even if gold remains static) due to the massive sell off...


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## collingwoodjoe (22 November 2008)

now that we are down around the 50% mark perhaps OzWave is expecting a suckers rally?

If so perhaps back up to push 5000 over 6-12 months before heading down towards 1500-1000?

I am not sure myself, I have no knowledge of wave analysis, I suspect that the markets have further to fall, especially if GM, or Citi, or any one of a number of globally recognized giants actually fail.

If that happens, then we move from a kind of worried panic int a suicidal despair, the market comes down a further 20-30% to reflect the now 'more serious' downturn, and we wait for maybe a year or so before the rally.

but who knows, ultimatley the value of any market is zero, otherwise you would still have something someone was willing to buy, and you would still have a market... when they close the door and switch out the lights, the value is zero.  

Until then, it will be some number other than that.


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## cutz (22 November 2008)

Hi

Correct me if I am wrong but hasn’t the market already priced in some more collapses of large companies? 
So I don’t think the collapse of GM is going to cause a downward spiral towards 1000. Remember the market is preemptive.


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## otagomed (22 November 2008)

4300 before christmas(then a drop again down to near 3000)
4500 by mid 2009
5500 by mid 2010
10000 by 2014.


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## mfp (22 November 2008)

New high won't be created before 2020.


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## enigmatic (22 November 2008)

Is this the sign of the end?
Confidence must be returning if we are beginning to speak of how high it will go. 
This is what i see as the minimum that will happen over the next 5years if this is to be our bottom.
Short term: i believe it will stablise somewere arround 3800 for 6 months.

Medium term: After this intial stablisation period it will head up to 4400 over the next 18months after that.

Long term: for the next 3years after that it will head towards 5500 with a possible bearish pull back to 5000


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## mayk (22 November 2008)

enigmatic said:


> Is this the sign of the end?
> Confidence must be returning if we are beginning to speak of how high it will go.
> This is what i see as the minimum that will happen over the next 5years if this is to be our bottom.
> Short term: i believe it will stablise somewere arround 3800 for 6 months.
> ...




It is just a well thought out exercise designed by OzWaveguy to study the statistical correlation between the post count and trend reversal patterns observed in the "How low can the All Ords go?" thread. 

The key challenge is to keep these two thread active so that the data remains useful.


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## enigmatic (22 November 2008)

Yeah i was reading and posting in the "How low can the All Ords go?", now that this is open again, you will find that it will generate possitive news.

OzWaveguy will be able to tell us all the useful facts afterwards.


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## Geoff (22 November 2008)

mayk said:


> It is just a well thought out exercise designed by OzWaveguy to study the statistical correlation between the post count and trend reversal patterns observed in the "How low can the All Ords go?" thread.
> 
> The key challenge is to keep these two thread active so that the data remains useful.




Yes but by deliberately posting in a thread for the sake of keeping it active you're invalidating the results, unless the relationship between post count and market activity is deterministic.  

And if it is deterministic, everbody post in this thread until 31st Dec, buy lots of stocks and then only post in the "how low can the XAO go" thread (and don't tell anyone else about our little secret!)


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 November 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:


> Anyone?




ha ha.

what a great idea for a thread.

well I must admit I haven't thought along these lines for a while.

the trend is yer friend,though, they say.

gg


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## Sean K (29 November 2008)

That V bottom potential is there, but the right side of the V will be much lower, maybe. 

Been an amazing week since the 3200 recovery. 

Dow has had it's best week since 1974.

Good work if you picked an opportunity to pick up a few things for a short to mid term trade.

Seems still potential for further downside, and yes, the trend is your friend. Short term momentum seems to be up. For now.

*Wall Street climbs as S&P 500 has best week since 1974*
Rob Curran | November 29, 2008 
Article from:  Dow Jones Newswires 

MOST US stocks rose and almost all participated in the best week for the S&P 500 since 1974, as Citigroup and General Motors rose on prospects of government intervention and traders bet on retailers like Macy's despite a tough shopping environment.


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## enigmatic (8 February 2009)

Dont really want to take any guess as i have no charting experience so i can obviously put a line on a chart and get any target i would like but i was wondering if anyone else had seen a movement in the northly direction or is it still all doom and Gloom.

I personally think the doom and gloom part has already been facted in and now everyone is sitting on the fence to see if it is going to happen or not.
With the US stimilus package on its way and our small semi stimilus package on its way we may see some movement.

Note i have made a few long term positions as of late so i am some what biased.

cheers for anyones less biased opinion


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## Junior (19 February 2009)

Hmmm...like most people I think we will go lower.  Maybe to mid 2000s this year or next before a long battle until we finally hit new highs, maybe in 3-5 years.


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