# SDL - Sundance Resources



## stockmaster (24 September 2006)

Can someone give some opinion of the future of this share. Greatly appreciated.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (27 September 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> Can someone give some opinion of the future of this share. Greatly appreciated.




I'm pretty sure SDL'S only assest is CAM Iron in SA. They only paid 250k for this, and in shares I think. Infrastructure costs for CAM are high and its probable it will never get off the ground. In fact, considering this is their only real asset, and SDL'S market cap, its a bit of a joke that SDL are a listed company and how their market cap is justified..

Apart from the aforementioned, SDL are sparse on announcements except for Appendix 3B'S in which they issue themselves/directors bulk shares regularily, and have a heap on issue.

Fundamentally, SDL seem a bit of a Donkey.  


As far as a tradeable stock, they are sometimes. On no news whatsover they basically go from negligable volume to 20mil plus. A few big traders are onto this one (check their substantial holders announcements), and if you are in at the right time you can ride a bit of the momentum.


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## dubiousinfo (27 September 2006)

The market cap is $86mil, $98mil fully diluted & as at 30/6/06 they had around $4mil in cash.

When SDL acquired Cam Iron in March this year, it paid $400,000 in cash & issued 295mil shares @ 2.5c ($7.4mil) plus opies.

A scoping study has been completed and a prefeasability study has commenced which is expected to be complete in 10 months.
The scoping study estimated an initial Inferred Resource of 570mil tonnes of Iron Ore grading above 60% Fe.
The study also found a potentialy feasable project producing 35mil tonnes p.a. (70% fines & 30% lump) with production costs of US$14.50/tonne. Current prices are US$47/t for fines & US$59/t for lump.

Capital costs are estimated at US$2.46bil (including mine, crushing plant, railway system, port & a contingency of US$450mil). However, the project could be eligible for funding from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund & the African Development Bank. In addition the Cameroon Government has confirmed its willingness to assist with the development & is considering a second major port which SDC could potentially use & which may reduce the capital costs.
(see ann of 12/7/06 which includes scoping study)

In Oct 05 SDL paid US$1.2 mil cash for the Mantos Grandes copper/gold project in Chile.
(see ann of 7/10/05)

Other project of SDL is the Chacarilla Copper Project in Bolivia. They commenced exploration there with a 50% interest in 1997 & in April this year paid US$1mil for the remaining 50%. The project is currently on care & maintenance & the resource is not currently JORC certified & will require further drilling. (see ann of 20/4/06)

I don't hold but have added it to my watchlist.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (25 October 2006)

Another chanel trading day for SDL, this ones quite bizzare, it regularily moves on basically no news what so ever.


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## maverick11 (25 October 2006)

i was just looking at this one and trying to figure it out.  Daily turnover is approx 2-3mil shares but today it is up to 13+mil already?!!


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (25 October 2006)

maverick11 said:
			
		

> i was just looking at this one and trying to figure it out.  Daily turnover is approx 2-3mil shares but today it is up to 13+mil already?!!




It threw a few indicators last week that a break might happen. On the materials section indicators and SDL's comparisson to these it seems to regularily spike above the chart roughly on one occasion a month. Some times a decent spike, sometimes only 10 percent.

The key point is price action, picking a low point after a consolidation and taking a punt on a future spike. Believe it or not it seems to regularily happen shortly after.

I like SDL cause it always breaks with volume and with a decnt depth that gives you the opportunity to dump on a buyer on the boards.

Fundamentaly Ive taken the time to research them and I don't like them long, so I just take the quick profits (if the oportunity presents).


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## CanOz (25 October 2006)

SDL looks to be starting another wave higher on the weekly chart. Curious about todays increase without announcment though...interesting.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (6 November 2006)

Any one else been riding SDL today?, might actually hold up through 10c this time around.


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## CanOz (6 November 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Any one else been riding SDL today?, might actually hold up through 10c this time around.




Yes its good to see it move out of last weeks range. Hope this is a breakout higher that we've been looking for. I nearly got stopped out last week.

Cheers,


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## mildew79 (29 November 2006)

look out for a share restructure in the next couple of months. possibly a 5 for 1. i think things will start to get very interesting after that....

seems as though mother country is keen to get this on the way. finance likely id say.

all we need is for a sustained period of demand


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## ctlaltdelesc (30 November 2006)

SDL just announced a 12.4 million capital raising after market close.
I bet the price will go up tomorrow. 
Anyone have any comment about this?

$12.4 MILLION RAISED FOLLOWING ALLOTMENT OF FIRST PLACEMENT TRANCHE
Sundance Resources Ltd (ASX: SDL) is pleased to announce the completion of the first tranche of the $30 million capital raising announced on 15 November 2006, with the allotment of 155,187,500 ordinary shares at 8 cents each to raise $12.4 million.
Attached is an ASX Appendix 3B in relation to the issue of the placement


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (7 December 2006)

SDL broke yesterday with volume, should follow through today or could be just another one of those 10 percent pump and dumps that it does every month!.

I'm not complaining though


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## ts2000 (16 December 2006)

A few months ago I bought this at 9c and sold it when it nearly hit 11c.  It was my first trade.  I figured I was lucky.

However, I had another look at it today and it seems to be forming a rising triangle.  Could this signal the possibility of a breakout in the near future?

Are there more experienced people out there who could verify my observation on this?


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## ctlaltdelesc (16 February 2007)

According to RM Research Pty Ltd Report - 25 August 2006 in one year this one will run to 20cents. This mean another 7 month remaining 
According to schedule they will completed feasibility study in April.
After that if good news arrived will be a good fun for all the holder.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 March 2007)

Worth a look ATM, sitting at long term support and certainly is a volume tradeable stock. I also would hazard an opinion that it is worked regularily between traders and offloaded on the mugs above 9c 

Shoddy fundamentals IMO though, not that it really effects this one as it systematically has pushes at 10c with the only attributable reason.....as above.


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## Duckman#72 (16 March 2007)

Hi All

I noticed today in Tim Boreham's column in _The Australian_, he has written up Sundance as a Speculative Buy at 7.2c.......comparing to......of all things Fortescue Metals (albeit a few years behind in development). Shares up 12% today so far.

Any comments 
Duckman


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## mmmmining (16 March 2007)

Cannot believe it has dropped to 7-8c level. Share price has been declining since mid Jan.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 March 2007)

Yesterday's trading.... gave today's effort away, another pump and dump for SDL. 
You gotta be quick though and have youre sell from accumalation already in the depth......the regulars do!.
If a bit of volume comes back this arvo, SDL may yet have another run at 10c over coming days...........don't like its chances in the current market ATM though.


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## Out Too Soon (19 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Worth a look ATM, sitting at long term support and certainly is a volume tradeable stock. I also would hazard an opinion that it is worked regularily between traders and offloaded on the mugs above 9c
> 
> Shoddy fundamentals IMO though, not that it really effects this one as it systematically has pushes at 10c with the only attributable reason.....as above.




Guess it's headed into mugs territory again then Freeball, Tim Borehams column "The Criterion" in The Australian used to have some good tips but he's had some shockers over the last few months. I don't think they did much research on this one before they compared it to FMG either.  I think Tims away tho so can't blame him for this one. Still might be good for a quick trade when it drops back to 7.? c.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Worth a look ATM, sitting at long term support and certainly is a volume tradeable stock. I also would hazard an opinion that it is worked regularily between traders and offloaded on the mugs above 9c
> 
> Shoddy fundamentals IMO though, not that it really effects this one as it systematically has pushes at 10c with the only attributable reason.....as above.




Well its through mugs territory and facing the usual resistance at 11c, if SDL goes through 12c with volume its one to watch............

And yep I bailed at 9.6c yesterday, trade the plan...... but I could be the mug this time around  .


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## constable (23 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Well its through mugs territory and facing the usual resistance at 11c, if SDL goes through 12c with volume its one to watch............
> 
> And yep I bailed at 9.6c yesterday, trade the plan...... but I could be the mug this time around  .



Hahaha you missed out big time fella......
Just quietly I know of another guy who sold out @ 9.4...


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 March 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> Hahaha you missed out big time fella......
> Just quietly I know of another guy who sold out @ 9.4...




LOL,

I guess after so many times I was bound to get stung sooner or later......!

Hope you got in early constable, a nice earner


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## Halba (23 March 2007)

Rumour is that GINDALBIE (GBG) another iron ore company is taking a serious look at SDL, and hence is the reason for SDL's increase. GBG will want to expand in africa iron ore. So whoever sold......

Disclosure: I don't hold this.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> rumour is that GINDALBIE (GBG) another iron ore company is taking a serious look at SDL, and hence is the reason for SDL's increase. GBG will want to expand in africa iron ore. So whoever sold......
> 
> Disclosure: i don't hold this.




SDL has this type of price action regularily.....and as yet its nothing out of the norm. 

Seriously doubt GBG could takeover anything, SDL is a long time off  with CAM iron and GBG has enough problems of its own with its chinese suitors....all speculation really!.


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## mmmmining (23 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> SDL has this type of price action regularily.....and as yet its nothing out of the norm.
> 
> Seriously doubt GBG could takeover anything, SDL is a long time off  with CAM iron and GBG has enough problems of its own with its chinese suitors....all speculation really!.



It looks like that I will never get my another half at last week's price. A great run!
Great run for all iron ore stocks in last couple of days.


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## mildew79 (23 March 2007)

Wouldn't be surprised if these guys issued themselves some more options in spite of the recent run ha ha. they always seem to find a way  ... 

Great rally though!


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## Halba (23 March 2007)

> mmmmining: Great run for all iron ore stocks in last couple of days.





Not really..check my SRK's chart its done crap


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## mmmmining (23 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Not really..check my SRK's chart its done crap



If you hold it, I am sorry then.


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## Halba (23 March 2007)

LOL yep i hold quite a bit......my worst performer in a long time, paper losses ahhhhh


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## mildew79 (26 March 2007)

what the hell is going on??? although these guys sit on great deposits, they arnt worth anything until they get government backing on infrastructure. recent run is very bullish and now very out of the norm with massive volumes. anyone??


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## Halba (26 March 2007)

Woww this continues to impress. Like I said its going up due to possible industry consolidation in the iron ore sector. Again I don't hold but watch with amazement.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (26 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Well its through mugs territory and facing the usual resistance at 11c, if SDL goes through 12c with volume its one to watch............



.

Hi Mildew,

First time SDL has pushed through 12c with vol ( from a test of support only a few weeks back),this run reminds me of its run in June from support at 5c.

Could go anywere ATM, certainly getting pumped by traders!.


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## Fab (26 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Hi Mildew,
> 
> First time SDL has pushed through 12c with vol ( from a test of support only a few weeks back),this run reminds me of its run in June from support at 5c.
> 
> Could go anywere ATM, certainly getting pumped by traders!.




Yep and got some really good wrap in Eureka report and below link:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21390545-23634,00.html

The prospect of being a possible next FMG is quite of interest to have a punt on it. Which I just did today.


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## Fab (30 March 2007)

Getting to 15cents now. Any idea what's going on?


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## ctlaltdelesc (30 March 2007)

Fab said:


> Getting to 15cents now. Any idea what's going on?




As I know Sundance in April this year, will start drilling Mbalam Iron Ore Project under Wallis Drilling. This project estimated mineralisation excess of 800 million tonnes Iron Ore. 
Apart from this, I dont know. Thanks.


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## Mousie (30 March 2007)

Fab said:


> Getting to 15cents now. Any idea what's going on?




"pump and (not much) dump"


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## Fab (1 April 2007)

Mousie said:


> "pump and (not much) dump"




Yes but why this sudden jump? Is it only because an article in the Australian saying it is dirt cheap which it is if they compare it to FMG which is now worth $19.
I am just wondering when and how much they are forecast to produce?
Management team seems to be top notch from what I read but I don't know much more about this company.


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## ctlaltdelesc (1 April 2007)

Fab said:


> Yes but why this sudden jump? Is it only because an article in the Australian saying it is dirt cheap which it is if they compare it to FMG which is now worth $19.
> I am just wondering when and how much they are forecast to produce?
> Management team seems to be top notch from what I read but I don't know much more about this company.




You did ask a question and you also one of them who answer your own question.  Good one Fab


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## Mousie (1 April 2007)

Fab said:


> Yes but why this sudden jump? Is it only because an article in the Australian saying it is dirt cheap which it is if they compare it to FMG which is now worth $19.
> I am just wondering when and how much they are forecast to produce?
> Management team seems to be top notch from what I read but I don't know much more about this company.




No spoonfeeding here Fab, DYOR!!!   FWIW I don't know why you're head-banging in your previous post since you said in a still previous post you took "a punt" on this, unless you wanna top up, so DYOR before you do.


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## constable (16 April 2007)

lot of money flowing into this up 12.5% and 12mill in vol so far.


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## constable (16 April 2007)

constable said:


> lot of money flowing into this up 12.5% and 12mill in vol so far.




well that was tidy, up to 19c and 23 mill in vol. got 2c out of 3c with 2 trades (one overnight). Looks like 19c may have been the high, see what the afternoon brings.


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## Fab (16 April 2007)

constable said:


> well that was tidy, up to 19c and 23 mill in vol. got 2c out of 3c with 2 trades (one overnight). Looks like 19c may have been the high, see what the afternoon brings.




0.20 is more the resistance point. Any reasons why this one is flying today ? 
There is a lot of buying and not much selling I have to say, this is looking pretty good


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## ctlaltdelesc (18 April 2007)

Fab said:


> 0.20 is more the resistance point. Any reasons why this one is flying today ?
> There is a lot of buying and not much selling I have to say, this is looking pretty good




It will going to 25 soon according to RM capital report.
SDL start drilling early April. 
How much quantity do you hold FAB?


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## Fab (18 April 2007)

ctlaltdelesc said:


> It will going to 25 soon according to RM capital report.
> SDL start drilling early April.
> How much quantity do you hold FAB?




I have 100 000 that I bought at 0.13. Already a very nice profit. Can you post the article from RM capital report


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## Sean K (18 April 2007)

Fab said:


> I have 100 000 that I bought at 0.13. Already a very nice profit. Can you post the article from RM capital report



It was a Nov 06 report so it's a little outdated maybe. Not sure if anything has changed since then. Maybe it's outlook has improved? Or declined?

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00182_SDL_RM RESEARCH_15_11_2006 (2).pdf


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## ctlaltdelesc (18 April 2007)

Fab said:


> I have 100 000 that I bought at 0.13. Already a very nice profit. Can you post the article from RM capital report




Hi Fab,
Kennas already posted for you.
Tabbot company just accumulate from market SDL average price 0.135
George Jones he already received a few meeting with china, what i think price will going up trend, as day by day seller disappeared and more buyer coming up to support.
By the end of this year will complete feasibility study, next year will more excited moment for sdl


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## Peakey (16 May 2007)

SDL could be looking to head higher. Good volume so far today 23mil (on the back of an open breifing annoucement).

The resistance is .195, if .20 gets hit then we could be looking at an outstanding breakout. However .195 is the hurdle at the moment. Support is at .16/.165

Chart below.


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## Fab (17 May 2007)

SDL has now broken the 20 cents mark in big volume I am not a chartist but this is to me a strong up trend sign.


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## Peakey (17 May 2007)

Hi Fab,

Yep it's looking good..... .20 must hold though. I'd like to see even more volume, hopefully we'll see 50mil plus by the close. If it can close near the intraday high then it will setup for a strong day tomorrow.


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## Peakey (17 May 2007)

SDL chart looking good. MACD has crossed over, RSI looks to have broken a downward trend.

A good close on .21....  Volume pretty good, I was thinking we may surpass yesterdays's volume of 53mil and really explode out (with buyers tripping over each other to get in) but that wasn't really the case. However the chart looks good. Any trading above today's intraday high of .215 will signal higher highs!!!


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## svensk (18 May 2007)

Looks as though one of the directors recently increased his stake in the company quite significantly. Perhaps a sign of things to come? Hopefully.


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## ctlaltdelesc (20 May 2007)

I did mention this share good to buy when it was 8 cents. Alot of people think this share is crap. Now time to pay back. Keep holding everyone.


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## Peakey (21 May 2007)

Chart update:

Intraday chart for the past week:

Broke out above .215 this morning to a high of .255 and has found intraday support @ .24 and intraday resistance @ .245. Looking for a strong close, ideally above .24. Current volume 51mil.


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## Peakey (5 June 2007)

Stock just seems to be consolidating for the time being. A close below .24 would be bearish in the short term. A close above .26 would be bullish.

MACD has just crossed over and has a bit of a bearish tone to it.

Bit of a waiting game with this one for the time being...........hopefully it will be worth the wait. A few positive drilling annoucements wouldn't hurt either.


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## ta2693 (12 June 2007)

why ppl crazy about this one? Do I miss something?
I agree it has large valuable resource in Africa. 
but it is more difficulty than LAF to actually get the result. 
The railway building is not that easy. the finance, the land, the skilled labor, etc etc.
The time is another question. when SDL ready to export? what the iron ore price  will be at that time? So much uncertainty.

But some ppl seriously like it, just like aar.


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## Fab (12 June 2007)

ta2693 said:


> why ppl crazy about this one? Do I miss something?
> I agree it has large valuable resource in Africa.
> but it is more difficulty than LAF to actually get the result.
> The railway building is not that easy. the finance, the land, the skilled labor, etc etc.
> ...




What is a ppl ? I love SDL too. It is going up and up and up at the moment and does not seem to want to stop


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## the barry (12 June 2007)

ta2693 said:


> why ppl crazy about this one? Do I miss something?
> I agree it has large valuable resource in Africa.
> but it is more difficulty than LAF to actually get the result.
> The railway building is not that easy. the finance, the land, the skilled labor, etc etc.
> ...




Just look at the fmg story, people kept saying they can't do that, they can't do this.....etc Just look at it now. 10 odd cents to 40 dollar highs in a couple of years. Whilst you have to look at market cap and the number of shares on offer, if you look at the bigger picture its not hard to see why people are keen to have a punt on it.


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## Peakey (12 June 2007)

Haven't really done too much in the way of Fundamental/A on this one ta2693 (i.e. none).... I've just been using the charts to trade SDL, however something is driving the price on this one 

But you raise some valid questions ta2693. I guess we'll have to wait see on that side of the equation.

The chart however...... Looks pretty good. Previous high of .285 was surpassed today and a new high of .30 was achieved on 46mil of volume. Closed on the new high which is a strong sign. MACD looks to be crossing over to the bullish side again. Hopefully the US will have a strong session tonight (or at least not too bearish) and we'll hopefully have another strong bullish session on SDL tomorrow.

Cheers
Peakey


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## Strangways (13 June 2007)

I see a basic story unfolding here which explains things in my mind about how the company's share price has evolved.  

1. Economic expansion in China and India is continuing and expected to be a long term expansion.
2. New developments are coming, but the supply side is needing to keep up with demand.  This creates price and supply pressure.
3. China needs to ensure its own economic future free of US interference - just look at the situation with oil and how the US are seeking to control the Middle East oil supplies with their foreign policy.  This is not a good strategic outcome for China, so the same can occur in other key areas, like iron and coal.
4. The Chinese basic strategy is to buy and take interests in new developments, in part to stop the major players from ensuring massive price rises.  Buying an interest also ensures supply, despite the cost.  Its a risk minimisation strategy to ensure their economic freedom.
5. The Chinese have invested in Africa strongly and so SDL in on their radar.  To the south of SDL is another major Iron play with the Chinese involved.
6. Whilst SDL is in its infancy, it is possibly a FMG of five years ago.
7. The new Board with George Jones has overcome a serious credability problem and Mr Jones is well known to the Chinese via Portman Mining which he was a very significant player in.
8. The outcome of seeing the first bit of dirt shipped is achievable.  If FMG can do it, then there is no doubt that SDL can.  It will take time and major issues will need to be de-risked, however Mr Jones is a very experienced player and I doubt that he would risk his credibility if he thought it was an outrageously poor opportunity.
9. What will happen no one knows, however you seldom come across good projects with this size resource base (albeit unproven at this stage), so I say its worth having a stake and let the story unfold.  

Traders are doing themselves a disservice trying to trade and read the charts.


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## sleeper88 (13 June 2007)

Strangways said:


> I see a basic story unfolding here which explains things in my mind about how the company's share price has evolved.
> 
> 1. Economic expansion in China and India is continuing and expected to be a long term expansion.
> 2. New developments are coming, but the supply side is needing to keep up with demand.  This creates price and supply pressure.
> ...




I share the same views as you, as long as the chinese and indian economies continue to grow, this is one of the best iron ore plays. Although there needs to be hugh financing issues that need to be solved (US 2.5b), but i believe one of the large chinese mining houses will grab a stake in this project, (2.5b to them is nothing). Possibily RIO might be interest as well.

Miss the boat when this was around 8c..watched it rocket to 17.5c before i got in. touching 40c now


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## Peakey (13 June 2007)

Wow, what a cracker of a day for SDL.....!!

Surely with this amount of action there must be some sort of News in the pipeline?

Dare I say, the stock must be starting to look a little overbought?

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Good luck to those that are on this one.

Cheers
Peakey


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## Strangways (14 June 2007)

I see that the undiluluted market capitalisation at the close on 13 June was $646m.  That number needs to put into some real context against the industry and my view is that mining companies need to be examined by virtue of the Enterprise Value, particularly in relation to the size of the resource base.  

You need to use some estimation here because the resource base is not yet JORC compliant, however all the valuations are being done on the 218mt @ 60% Fe.  The resource base is unlikey to be that small as early estimates have the size at 800mt to 1000mt, ie 4 to 5 times larger - but to be proven up.  The exploration potential recently changed also with a new announcement.  I am unaware of any details about this new area.

A research report I saw (released 11 May) had SDL trading at an Enterprise Value of $1.17/tonne using the 218mt figure (and this must currently be used) when the stock price was 16.5 cents and the view put was that the market capitalisation would need to double to bridge the gap to the average of 3.15/tonne for similar explorers (not producers).  

If the resource base is 4-5 times larger, then this indicated discrepency between SDL and the industry will be much larger, so a much higher market capitalisation can be seen to be well understood by this peer analysis.  On that peer analysis, the stock may trade between $1.32 and $1.65 to be in line with other similar companies which have JORC compliant resources.  

That is just one analysis and is based on non-JORC information.  I am interested to see what other people consider by applying sound analysis techniques.


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## Peakey (16 June 2007)

3 day (5 minute interval) chart for SDL.

Support is at around .41 (followed by .39 then .365) and resistance is at .45 then .50. Trading above .50 would signal the next bullish run (you'll see the SUN Dancing in the Blue skys above .50 ).

10 and 20 period moving averages shown on chart as well. 

I'd be quite happy to see SDL trade between .39 and .45 and consolidate for a while , just to cool its heels a little.

If anyone has any other thoughts on the chart, then by all means throw your  in.

Strangways, thanks for the analysis above.

Cheers
Peakey


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## the barry (18 June 2007)

The talbot group has taken out another 2 percent in this company bringing their holding to 12.5 percent. Announced this morning they got an extra two drills instead of one. Is going to be a very interesting ride until the completion of the drilling at the end of the year. Hopefully see another strong open tomorrow on the news.


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## MR. (19 June 2007)

“Strangways”
I have read that Carmichael report (released 11 May) a number of times over the past month.
http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00202_SDL_11052007.pdf
They had SDL trading at an Enterprise Value of $1.17/tonne (on page 7) against the sector average of $3.15.  Now the (largest of  explorers) FMG  has been estimated on that page at $3.00. I would think if SDL was  valued near the same as FMG something is not quite right here. FMG is a number of years further down the track then SDL. If  SDL proved up 1 billion tonnes of Hematite I believe its Enterprise Value should be about half that of FMG making the share price a bit over $1-. 
   Its very interesting how different people value a company before it actually produces something.  I have calculated the share price of the company once it is in production. I have put a target price of  $6- per share with production being 35 million tonnes per year.  This price is more than 10 times the current price of $0.47. I don’t see the current share price overvalued if you take into account the resource is expected to be a lot more than 218 million tonnes of Hematite. Also if 1 billion tonnes is found SDL may increase the production from 35MT to 50 MT per year over a 20 year mine life.  Remember SDL is looking for 700 million tonnes for the 20 year mine life at 35MT per year..

Calculations:
Selling price of $75- AUD Tonne.
FOB cost of extraction and processing = $30- AUD Tonne. 
Profit per tonne of $45- x 35 million tonnes per year = $1575 million AUD yr.
Minus $123 million (loan over 20 years) = $1452 million
The mine is 90% owned by SDL = $1306 million per year.
Divided by 1780 million shares = $0.73 per share per year.
If a P/E of 8 was used considering both (RIO and BHP trade at 10) 
The target price I have put on SDL is $6.00 per share.
I own SDL because of this calculation I have made.
Please do your own research. 
I wonder what the Talbot Group has calculated?

Happy to be holding.


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## ta2693 (19 June 2007)

MR. said:


> “Strangways”
> I have read that Carmichael report (released 11 May) a number of times over the past month.
> http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00202_SDL_11052007.pdf
> They had SDL trading at an Enterprise Value of $1.17/tonne (on page 7) against the sector average of $3.15.  Now the (largest of  explorers) FMG  has been estimated on that page at $3.00. I would think if SDL was  valued near the same as FMG something is not quite right here. FMG is a number of years further down the track then SDL. If  SDL proved up 1 billion tonnes of Hematite I believe its Enterprise Value should be about half that of FMG making the share price a bit over $1-.
> ...



Hi Mr. I have read some of your post on CFE which is brilliant. but for this one SDL, I have say give PE multiple 8 is too far. 
compared with BHP and RIO,it has a long way to go to produce for SDL, and
Cameroon is a very corrupted country, the hidden cost of bribing may be very high. The railway is still on  paper which may incur objection from local people. because it is poor and corrupt, Cameroon is not as stable as Australia.
So, I will give multiple 1 (which is same the market gave to YML) which is $0.73 in dollar value seems to be fair.


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## MR. (19 June 2007)

Thanks ta2693.
I will give your opinion some thought. Perhaps 8 is too high. Carmichael gave this some consideration at about 1/3 of the Enterprise Value. ie: 1.17 x double = $2.33 with the (sector average of $3.15) 
Perhaps a P/E of 5 or 6 should be used! I don't think a P/E of 1 will be priced in by the market. Thanks for throwing this in from left field.


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## MR. (20 June 2007)

ta2693 said:


> Hi Mr. I have read some of your post on CFE which is brilliant. but for this one SDL, I have say give PE multiple 8 is too far.
> compared with BHP and RIO,it has a long way to go to produce for SDL, and
> Cameroon is a very corrupted country, the hidden cost of bribing may be very high. The railway is still on  paper which may incur objection from local people. because it is poor and corrupt, Cameroon is not as stable as Australia.
> So, I will give multiple 1 (which is same the market gave to YML) which is $0.73 in dollar value seems to be fair.




Ta2693, "now your've got me posting in a row." I think you may have misunderstood my post.  I was not indicating that the share is currently worth $6-. This would explain why you put a P/E value of 1 on the company. 

However perhaps a P/E of 8 is a little high for when this company is in production. If I use a P/E of 6 it looks real cheap compared to BHP or RIO getting towards half. ie: P/E 6 vs P/E 10. Also both  RIO & BHP have mines in other countries, how have people factored in risks there? I’ll include a P/E of 6 into my calculation to cover this unknown country which SDL is entering.  

#      The FOB cost price below is high at $30- considering SDL estimated  $18- per tonne. I raised this cost after investigating FMG’s costs. SDL’s figure of $18- could be correct but I have used closer to FMG’s costs. SDL’s  labour will be cheaper! 
#      The P/E of 6 doesn’t look real fair compared to (BHP’s and RIO’s 10.) But will use to get an idea of  where SDL can go.
#       Also I suspect 50 million tonnes will be mined per year if 1BT of Hematite is mineable.

Calculations:
Selling price of $75- AUD Tonne.
FOB cost of extraction and processing = $30- AUD Tonne. 
Profit per tonne of $45- x 35 million tonnes per year = $1575 million AUD yr.
Minus $123 million (loan over 20 years) = $1452 million
The mine is 90% owned by SDL = $1306 million per year.
Divided by 1780 million shares = $0.73 per share per year.
If a P/E of 6 was used considering both (RIO and BHP trade at 10)  
The target price I have now concluded for SDL is $4.40 per share at 35 million tonnes per year.

At the current share price of $0.465 this target price of $4.40 is 9.4 times the current price. Basically still 10 times. This target price is for when the mine is operational.


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## springhill (29 June 2007)

Nice to see that SDL finished the week in a strong manner up from its low of around 39 cents to a nicely timed high of 46.5 cents in a week that was less than stellar. Possibly pointing to a nice run on Monday with strong demand. Though it probably hasnt had enough of a breather from its last run, it seems to have consolidated quickly. 50 cents maybe a sustainable target. Any thoughts/opinions?


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## Peakey (30 June 2007)

Chart update:

Looks like we've broken a short downward trend. Price moved 12.05% for the day on the last day of the financial year, however it was on LOWish volume (14mil compared to some of the big volume days of 50mil plus over the last few weeks). Volume over the last 2 weeks has also been in a downward trend.

Next hurdle will be .48. Then the bigger hurdle of .50/.51. Support is @ .39/.40.

We need to see a close above .50/.51 on BIG volume to confirm the next upleg.

Also some points to note:

.465 is the highest weekly close, but it has been on pretty light volume (compared to previous weeks), could indicate that the supply side is running out and buyers will need to pay up to fill the orders.

15/6/07 - .42 (weekly volume 299mil)
22/6/07 - .45 (weekly volume 162mil)
29/6/07 - .465 (weekly volume 60mil)

Those people that bought in at higher prices (between .465-51), would've have needed to close their positions this week to realise their capital loss for 2007. The supply/sellers could be starting to thin out, opening the door for potentially higher prices in the short term. 

On the flip side, those that bought in during April/May and are sitting on some pretty sweet % returns D)  in a short space of time and maybe waiting for the new financial year to begin to do their selling to avoid paying CGT for the next 12 months. However these punters are also probably more inclined to 'let their profits run'..... especially with the first of the assay/drilling results just around the corner and the potential for even bigger returns.

I guess the key for this stock will be the volume, when we see the BIG volume return this will dictate which way the stock will go.

That's about it for the moment.

Cheers 
Peakey


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## springhill (30 June 2007)

Im still pretty new at share trading and this may seem like a silly question, but does anyone have a problem with the fact that SDL has 1.6 billion fully paid shares available? Surely the price cant sutain momentum with that many potentially on the market? Is consolidation a worry?


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## gfresh (30 June 2007)

There looks like a massive buy at the end of yesterday's trade?? volume was on current average of about 14.63m, sat fairly static at low 40c mark throughout the day, and then at the end closed on 12% up. Something is afoot next week? 


1.6bn shares on issue does seem a lot for a company that has not actually achieved anything so far.. My calcs could be wrong, but they'll have to return about $800m in revenue a year once operations were successful in 3(?) years to sustain a SP of say $6 with a P/E of say 12


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## NewBloke (1 July 2007)

On Friday the volume was 14m, during the last 30 minutes of trade on Friday the volume was 5m This looks positive, I hope there is encouraging news ahead.


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## jonojpsg (2 July 2007)

My first post - hmm, well Sundance do have 1.6bn shares on issue, which values them at around 800m at the moment.  This is for a company with resources similar to Fortescue a couple of years ago though, and given Fortescue's run to 9bn value I would say that Sundance are pretty reasonably priced. 

Also if you read the Open Briefing from a month or so ago, CEO said they were looking at potentially 900m US a year income which certainly would sustain a decent share price hike between now and then!


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## golfmos123 (3 July 2007)

More big volumes going through first thing this morning and the price is still climbing a little.   Possible bull run through 50 now.  Anyone else with an itchy trigger finger?  If volumes stay up might be hard to stay out of this one??


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## 1stunnedmullet (3 July 2007)

*may* be a *short-term* reversal here

1. all time high made today during trading
2. close for the day below prior days close


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## Peakey (3 July 2007)

Having watched Friday and Monday's trading sessions and seen the volume gradually pick up and seeing those 2 white candles, I felt pretty confident heading into today that we were going to see some positive movement in the share price of SDL......... and we did in the morning, the stock was going along as I'd felt it would, good volume, the price was trending up nicely, nothing too outrageous, made fresh highs @ .53, thought to myself this a dead set certainty of closing above .50 .......... (see the chart below of the past week, purple trend line on the 1 week chart shows the price action)

Then, what the!!!! Where did those bears come from 

The close was less then impressive, closed on the absolute low of the day on sizeable volume (42mil today).......... and before you know it, where back at Friday's closing price of .465.........  

Not sure where it'll go from here, however where currently looking at a nasty black candle for today's trading on big volume, which leads me to think (and I hope I'm wrong here), that tomorrow could also be another negative day........ 

.465 may turn out to be a support level (see chart). The rest of the week is gonna be very interesting though......

Cheers
Peakey


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## golfmos123 (4 July 2007)

Thanks Peakey,

I tend to agree with your analysis, although I wasn't too surprised by the bounce in SP this morning.  Settling down again afterwards which isn't all bad news either, nice resistance level being set in the high 40's at least.  And might have allayed your fears of that big black candle??

Rest of the week will prove interesting to see if it breaks through either on high side or low side

Am still happy to think that a high side break through would signal buy it up!


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## Peakey (4 July 2007)

Yep Golf,

Encouraging day today (considering yesterday's close). Bit of consolidating I guess, with a nice little white candle. (yes, we survived yesterday's black candle )

Support @ .465 held firm (for now). Not BIG volume, 17.7mil (10day average volume is 19.7mil).

I concur, if we create new highs and close strongly, then we should go higher, but we'll cross that bridge if/when we get to it.

Cheers
Peakey


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## Peakey (5 July 2007)

Well we closed above .50 today on above average volume (24mil) and finished the day just off the high of .53, @.525 with a nice looking white candle. Question now is, can we surpass .53 and close above it or do we drift lower back down to .465/47?????

Interesting day for SDL tomorrow.....


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## golfmos123 (10 July 2007)

Peakey,

A few very nondescript days.  Stock doesn't know which way to go.  Teases by going up a little and closes back down again.  At least no sign of a breakout below which is encouraging.  Just looks suspiciously like a holding pattern which requires news of some description to prompt a move.  Volumes holding but nothing out of the ordinary.  So far so good, but still waiting before I re-enter.


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## Peakey (10 July 2007)

Yep, agree with you there Golf.

Like yourself, I thought we were gonna crack the .53 barrier....

Providing .465 holds, I think we'll be ok. I reckon, those that bought in over the last week or so (with a short-term view), would be using .465 as their stop loss. So IF .465 fails, then it could slip pretty quickly back down to the .40ish levels. 

Also if you take a look at the 13day moving average, it's currently sitting on .47. The share price briefly dipped below this average (intraday) between 27th-29th June, before rallying late in trade on the 29th. Just something to keep in mind.

Bit of a Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers atm.

Cheers
Peakey


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## MR. (11 July 2007)

I posted on this thread on the 19th of June that SDL has the potential to go to $6-.
I have sold my holding in SDL.

Why ? (I would like others to tell me if I was still the holder)

1) The price has 3x in 2 months. 1.2 billion shares turned over in that time. For my liking the turnover is not enough considering many of the same shares would have turned over many times. Concerned that 1.6 - 1.8 billion shares are out there.

2) The directors of SDL have exercised about 40,000,000 options over three recent dates which did not need to be exercised yet. I see only one reason why. That is to sell soon. 

3) Has a BUYER manipulated this stock on purpose or not?
         That is a major question! 
A recent purchase by the BUYER reassured my purchase at the time of my average of $0.45.  But if you take an average of this BUYER’s  purchases over all their holdings their average price per share is approx $0.18 in SDL. (a long way from my average of $0.45) In fact if they sold their holding (if it was possible to sell all of them at about $0.50) From the BUYER’s outlay of approx 25 million they can make nearly 50 million profit now in just a few months. I researched two other companies which has involvement with this BUYER. I found a very similar  pattern with one of the two stocks and this stock has increased in price like SDL in recent months. Both SDL and this other company had/has good  potential and low market caps.  However the BUYER has not appeared to have sold down either position to their credit. But they can at anytime and make perhaps only 100%.  25 million profit in just a few months leaving the share price a bit damaged. 

4) We are assuming that there is at least 700mt. What happens if 700 million tonnes is not found? If it is found SDL can get to $6- per share if everything goes well.  There could be some massive highs and lows on the way though.   

I purchased at $0.45 average. This buy figure I am not happy with under these circumstances. “Peakey” posted a chart (Charts I don’t usually pay too much attention to) when I was about to buy at $0.25. (perhaps a bear market he said) Then in a blink of an eye the share went to $0.50.  I considered buying  at $0.16 then at $0.25 and then I found myself owning at $0.45.

I’m out because I purchased too late. Good luck guys.


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## gfresh (13 July 2007)

Announcement today.. selling off their copper assets in South America... A good sign they have confidence they will be able to move forward wholy with their Cameroon project?? and divest themselves of non-core assets?

Agree?? Disagree?? Nothing to note?


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## jwrt (13 July 2007)

Definitely agree. Things are looking interesting.
I see quite a future in Cameroon and Sundance will definitely play a big role.

So far we have a a rail line and a deep sea port being built by the U.S firm Hydromine (of which Peter Briger Jnr. is President of and also President of Fortress Investments), China giving $100m in aid to Cameroon and some low-interest loans, plus Sundance seemingly making this their exclusive project.


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## Bushman (13 July 2007)

Yep I agree too. Good time to ditch a non-core project and focus on a potential company maker. 

100% focus is needed on Cameroon as it needs aggressive drill program to kick off a BFS/capital raising asking for up to 2.5b USD in Capex to earn EBIT of $800 USD per year. Huge numbers based on historical UN estimates at the moment. ** EBIT is from the memory banks but the numbesr are all quoted from reports on the SDL website.

All starts with the drill results.  

Any ideas who's on the short list for a JV party for Sundance? Be interesting to see who takes the punt...


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## jwrt (13 July 2007)

Bushman said:


> Yep I agree too. Good time to ditch a non-core project and focus on a potential company maker.
> 
> 100% focus is needed on Cameroon as it needs aggressive drill program to kick off a BFS/capital raising asking for up to 2.5b USD in Capex to earn EBIT of $800 USD per year. Huge numbers based on historical UN estimates at the moment. ** EBIT is from the memory banks but the numbesr are all quoted from reports on the SDL website.
> 
> ...




This capital raising has had a pretty hefty chunk taken out of it now that plans for the port and rail haven been announced and are fully funded by Hydromine (so far anyway!).


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## Out Too Soon (13 July 2007)

Hope they,ve done the right thing putting all their eggs in the Cameroon basket, then again their efforts aren't split between different sides of the world now, the directors are certainly lining their pockets.


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## AussiePaul72 (13 July 2007)

G'day all......yes i hope it is a good sign that they are concentrating on Cameroon. I got in on this one at 0.23 and so have done well to date  . It would be a shame to lose it now. Hopefully more good news to come!


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## dubiousinfo (14 July 2007)

SDL paid around $1.8 mil for the Mantes Grandes Copper Project in 2005 calling it an exceptional opportunity, now selling for $500k.
So did they pay too much, or are they giving it away cheap?


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## golfmos123 (16 July 2007)

Agree with MR's analysis - there does appear to be something going on.  My position is relatively large (for me!) averaged at 24c.  So have made good money to date.  But - and it's a but - if the next results can define deposits over 700Mt, then we are talking big league.  TO me the real issue is are they going to try to develop it themselves, or are they going to attract a large predator?  Either way, the SP has to rise IMHO.  I am happily sitting while the SP sits in the 47-53 range and believe it must go up, the $64M questions are of course, when and by how much??

Need patience - SP holding in a decent range, no sign of breakouts yet.  Looking at increasing holdings but probably won't do so until either vol's increase or SP starts to move breaking out to the north.  Have said that all before here so it's not new.

Have a couple of other contacts who also own SDL and they are far more bullish than I.  For what it's worth (close to zero), one is staking a large fortune on it rising strongly over 6 months (dollar-ish) and going much further over the following 12mths (few dollars-ish).

Peakey - any other thoughts to add????


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## Peakey (17 July 2007)

golfmos123 said:


> Peakey - any other thoughts to add????




Nah, you pretty much summed it up.... 

Trading between .47 - .53. Trading outside of this range will determine which way we go (for the short term anyway imho). My finger is on the exit button if it closes below this range, equally my finger is on the buy button if it closes above this range.

Peakey


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## the barry (17 July 2007)

Regardless of what the chart states, I am riding this one out till the resource is confirmed in december. Hopefully we will get some information along the way which will keep the share price moving up, but I think this could trade as low as the 40 cent mark on a market correctio and as high as the 55 cent mark till then. Furthermore, whatever talbot's average price per share is, he is still increasing his holding at these price levels.He is a shrewd business man with a knack of taking large stacks in companies which end up doing very well.


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## gfresh (17 July 2007)

The funny thing is, absolutely nothing has changed  

All I can speculate at the moment people buying in at high 40's, hoping for an announcement "any day now", and then panicking out as things head southward for a little bit. So is everything else last couple of days, so nothing to worry about if you ask me with this stock in particular.


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## Lachlan6 (17 July 2007)

I entered (SDL) at 50c and see no real reasons for worrying yet. In fact the chart is displaying a bullish signal at the moment in my opinion. The activity from  early June to today is actually the formations of a bullish flag continuation pattern and I am now waiting a break either side of this for confirmation of my next move (i.e scaling in, or exiting completely). Today's close was off the lows and is close to the support line so we may have a bounce soon. 

One negative is the divergence in the MACD with price, but again this is only an indicator and I will wait for confirmation first in price activity.


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## Piggy Bank (18 July 2007)

Hi Guys!  SDL closed today at 0.42 whereas this time last week the stock closed at 0.48.  I think those who bought last week are hoping for a positive annoucement soon!  Buyer support currently appears to be in the low 40's. Any thoughts on what will happen if the share price drops below 40 cents?


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## Fab (18 July 2007)

Piggy Bank said:


> Hi Guys!  SDL closed today at 0.42 whereas this time last week the stock closed at 0.48.  I think those who bought last week are hoping for a positive annoucement soon!  Buyer support currently appears to be in the low 40's. Any thoughts on what will happen if the share price drops below 40 cents?




Looks like some profit taking to me. If you bought at 7cents few months ago this is a good profit to take. I read that Iron ore price are due to be negotiated soon and should be review upward as well as some drilling results should come soon so this should push the share price up soon. The question is when?

Can anyone tell me when the half year result season starts as I understand it has started in the US but not here


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## tezz (19 July 2007)

all I know is that most stocks will be releasing there 4th quarter activities reports at the end of this month, yearly income statements are usually at the end of the year or early next year,
Lot of profit taking on SDL today, alot of traders are negative about this stock because of the huge task of building a railway and wharf, the cost about 2 billion I think it was, with the help from Governments and a 20% rise forcasts for iron ore I'm positive, plus it will open up that remote area and could be a huge asset with a billion or more tons of hematite 60% fe it will be an important mine, they do have alot of share holders in Europe including a superannuation company in London.


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## Nasdaq (19 July 2007)

This was in the Cameroon Tribune on the 11th July.

This revisit of the mining sector in the country and its importance in jump-starting the economy is very much informed by the visit last week of Mr George Jones, the chairman of Sundance Resources Limited, a strategic partner to the Cameroonian company, CAM-IRON SA which is starting a giant iron ore project around Mbalam, Ngoila Sub Division, East Province. The project will take a whopping CFA 1,250 Billion (about USD 2.5 Billion). In an economy in dire need of jobs for numerous unemployed youths, the 3,000 construction job openings come as welcome relief. At the end of the construction phase, permanent jobs will stay at around 1,000. Quite a reasonable figure too!

Apart from fiscal and other benefits the economy is expected to draw, several social amenities are accompanying the project. Already, a motorable road now links Ngoila with the project site. CAM-IRON will construct a 450- kilometre railway line between Mbalam and Kribi and a port in Kribi among other things. These are serious commitments, coming, as it were, from an Australian partner. As the Minister of Mines has aptly indicated, the opening of the Mbalam mine is a clear illustration that the mining sector could be an important booster in the development of Cameroon.

Perhaps some good driil results might help.


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## jwrt (20 July 2007)

http://yaounde.usembassy.gov/ambassador_remarks_american_chamber_of_commerce.html

The U.S Ambassador to Cameroons speech on the future of business in Cameroon.

"The U.S. firm Hydromine signed the first BOT agreement in Cameroon’s history for the construction of a rail line and deep sea port.  Hydromine’s planned projects in Cameroon exceed the value of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline.

Their vision is ambitious:  a new rail line from Edea to Grand Batanga, where Cameroon will finally have the deep-water port that it needs to remain competitive and dominant in the sub-region.

This future deep-water port will attract other investments, including the development of a major iron ore mining operation in the East province."

Hydromine has links to Fortress Investments.


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## Piggy Bank (20 July 2007)

It was nice to have some positive news about the activities of SDL today with some increase in trading volume. 

Reported in Corporate File 20 July 2007 - SDL Managing Director Don Lewis commented on exploration work for the June Quarter as follows:

"We have completed initial surface mapping of hematite mineralisation and received first assay results from this sampling. These surface sample results are very encouraging and will be reported to the market shortly."

"Wallis Drilling have mobilised the first two drilling rigs to site and drilling has commenced near the southern extent of the visible surface mineralisation. First core samples have been prepared and despatched to SGS laboratories in South Africa for analysis. We have also committed to construction of two additional RC rigs and manufacture of these rigs has commenced ready for mobilisation by the end of 2007. We are also now evaluating options to further increase our drilling capacity for our
proposed 2008 Bankable Feasibility Study."

I am looking forward to the imminent market release of the initial surface sample results and subsequent core samples.  It will be an exciting time for SDL!!!   Wonder how the market will respond?


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## hangseng (20 July 2007)

Piggy Bank said:


> It was nice to have some positive news about the activities of SDL today with some increase in trading volume.
> 
> Reported in Corporate File 20 July 2007 - SDL Managing Director Don Lewis commented on exploration work for the June Quarter as follows:
> 
> ...




This will give you some idea of what will be reported on from the drilling. This will be one huge iron ore project of exceptional hematite grades and very low phosphorous and alumina content (the secret). Another one with George Jones at the helm. Not long before he has the Chinese into this I would expect. Todays confirmed breakout from the long term support trendline was exactly what I have been waiting for. Uptrend remains intact and looking very strong indeed with very large buyers coming in today. Smart money seems to like what they see.


Hole S1 *64.9m @ 65.7% iron *(from 16.5m below surface)
Hole S2 *36.9m @ 64.6%* iron (from 23.5m below surface)
"*Contaminants play a major role in marketing and pricing of iron ore.* Drilling of the Metzivemin prospect gave averaged analyses of *0.056% Phosphorous and 0.67% Alumina*. *These are considered to be low and quite acceptable to major steel mills*."

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00202_SDL_11052007.pdf


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## the barry (23 July 2007)

Trading halt - hopefully this is good news. Am inclined to think that it has something to do with the chip samples, but we will see. Rumours on other boards about a potential merger with gbg coming at some point.


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## Piggy Bank (23 July 2007)

the barry said:


> Trading halt - hopefully this is good news. Am inclined to think that it has something to do with the chip samples, but we will see. Rumours on other boards about a potential merger with gbg coming at some point.




Tend to agree with you there about the surface sample reports as the reason for the trading halt.  Will be an interesting week for SDL.
Can you please post the links about the rumours on other boards about the potential merger with GBG?


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## gfresh (23 July 2007)

The main reason for the rumours seems to be that George Jones sits as Chairman at both companies. Whether there is any basis because of this anybody can guess.


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## the barry (23 July 2007)

Piggy Bank said:


> Tend to agree with you there about the surface sample reports as the reason for the trading halt.  Will be an interesting week for SDL.
> Can you please post the links about the rumours on other boards about the potential merger with GBG?




It isn't so much a rumour, it is stated in the press. As the article states it is a matter for the future when it can be determined what synergies can be obtained by merging the two companies. Not sure wether they will as for mind it is hard to see the synergies created when the two companies are on oppisite sides of the globe. However, i think both companies have excellent prospects in their own rights, if they were to merge and get both projects on line they would certainly have a major presence in that sector. 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=161916
=============
Ex-Portman boss tips iron ore price rise
Tuesday Nov 14 17:02 AEDT

Former Portman Ltd chairman George Jones believes a 10 per cent increase in the iron ore price is likely next year with demand for the steel making material still very strong.

Mr Jones said ramp-up plans by established producers were taking time and were not keeping up with increasing demand.

"I think the price rise will be more modest than in previous years, the 71 per cent caught me by surprise but the nearly 20 per cent last year didn't," Mr Jones told a briefing in Perth on Tuesday.

"CVRD have put up their hand for 40 per cent, that will be ambitious, I think at least 10 per cent is achievable and highly likely."

advertisement
Mr Jones made the call while spruiking his latest venture, Sundance Resources Ltd, where he has recently been appointed non-executive chairman.

Sundance's key asset is the Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon which has an inferred resource in excess of 800 million tonnes, including 218 million tonnes grading more than 60 per cent iron.

The project is located about 550 kilometres from the coast in an area with no established infrastructure.

Sundance is planning to complete an $18 million pre-feasibility study on the project by mid-2007 and is aiming to bring the operation online by about 2010.

The company is intending to raise $20 million through a share placement to finance the feasibility work.

A scoping study completed by Australian-based Promet Engineers last year estimated it would cost about $US2.5 billion ($A3.29 billion) to bring onstream.

Mr Jones said it was likely the company would bring in a partner down the line to assist with the project's development.

Mr Jones also hinted at a possible merger between Sundance and West Australian iron ore hopeful Gindalbie Metals Ltd, where Mr Jones is executive chairman.

"Whether there are any synergies in the future between the two, that will be for the two boards to determine when they both get further down the track."

"Going forward it may make sense to put them together ... there is a lot of work to be done before we concern ourselves with that."

Mr Jones was formerly chairman of iron ore miner Portman prior to its takeover by US-based iron ore producer Cleveland Cliffs Inc in 2005.


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## hangseng (23 July 2007)

IMO the merger is not far away.

Jones was in China again recently (according to reception) and has just returned in the last 2 weeks. He made that comment in the press last year for a reason. Again IMO only, I think the merger will to turn out to be reality and it is no coincidence that GJ became the chair of both companies.

This man is nothing short of brilliant, the reason I follow his dealings so closely. His success in turn has bred (my) success. Looking at where this man started out in life to what he is now achieving is such an inspirational story of real life.

How big would the new entity be? Literally one of the worlds largest Fe companies and a share price to match. I watch the coming months with much interest.


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## Love Zn (23 July 2007)

If this trading halt was related to a merger with GBG, then you would also expect GBG to be in a trading halt.

It is more likely results from samples or they have signed some sort of an agreement with a company.

Was doing more research over the weekend and was hoping to get some SDL shares next week when funds clear.  I just hope I don't miss the boat when it opens trading again :bonk:


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## hangseng (23 July 2007)

Love Zn said:


> If this trading halt was related to a merger with GBG, then you would also expect GBG to be in a trading halt.
> 
> It is more likely results from samples or they have signed some sort of an agreement with a company.
> 
> Was doing more research over the weekend and was hoping to get some SDL shares next week when funds clear.  I just hope I don't miss the boat when it opens trading again :bonk:




I wasn't suggesting this announcement has anything to do with a merger. What you state is correct it would require GBG to be in halt simultaneously. I was generalising as to SDL and where all of this may be heading.

IMO this news will be the initial drill test results and I am expecting this to be excellent.


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## Love Zn (23 July 2007)

hangseng said:


> I wasn't suggesting this announcement has anything to do with a merger. What you state is correct it would require GBG to be in halt simultaneously. I was generalising as to SDL and where all of this may be heading.
> 
> IMO this news will be the initial drill test results and I am expecting this to be excellent.




Sorry Hang, misunderstood.

Is it drilling results they will report just now?  From Open Briewfing 20/07:

"_We have completed initial surface mapping of hematite mineralisation and received first assay results from this sampling. These surface sample results are very encouraging and will be reported to the market shortly_."

"_First core samples have been prepared and despatched to SGS laboratories in South Africa for analysis."_

The core samples were despatched in June, would they be ready to report just now?


----------



## Fab (24 July 2007)

Love Zn said:


> Sorry Hang, misunderstood.
> 
> Is it drilling results they will report just now?  From Open Briewfing 20/07:
> 
> ...



I was exactly waiting for that. I am expecting these results to boost the share price. A friend of mine who work for worley Paterson in the Kimberley mentioned to me that he talks to SDL contractor people on a daily basis and said to me buy this share about 5 weeks ago as expected that it might go to $1 if the results were good and possibly more. We will see


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## nikki (24 July 2007)

Hang, can you tell me what else george is involved in? like your posts by the way. have you been watching ADY. any comments on that!


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## Piggy Bank (24 July 2007)

Fab said:


> I was exactly waiting for that. I am expecting these results to boost the share price. A friend of mine who work for worley Paterson in the Kimberley mentioned to me that he talks to SDL contractor people on a daily basis and said to me buy this share about 5 weeks ago as expected that it might go to $1 if the results were good and possibly more. We will see




Given that the market was already informed last Friday at the open of trade that "surface sample results are very encouraging and will be reported to the market shortly" could there be something more to the trading halt than just positive initial surface results?  Or maybe the results are just unexpectedly extremely good?  Is it possible that a JV partner has been brought to the discussion table at such an early stage in the piece by the Magician G Jones during his recent visit to China?  The mystery will all be revealed by tomorrow morning...whatever the reason it shall be an interesting days trading!  Expecting huge volumes tomorrow with hopefully a share price to match!


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## winsol (24 July 2007)

the reason for the halt was capital raising - see this mornings west australian newspaper

_Sundance raises $40m for Africa
George Jones-led iron ore junior Sundance Resources is believed to have secured major new overseas backing ion a $40 million capital raising overnight, as investors warm to the potential of its rich Mbalam hematite project in Cameroon._


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## Fab (24 July 2007)

winsol said:


> the reason for the halt was capital raising - see this mornings west australian newspaper
> 
> _Sundance raises $40m for Africa
> George Jones-led iron ore junior Sundance Resources is believed to have secured major new overseas backing ion a $40 million capital raising overnight, as investors warm to the potential of its rich Mbalam hematite project in Cameroon._




If that is the case I am not too sure this will put a rocket under the share price tomorrow. Anyway we will see.


----------



## Piggy Bank (24 July 2007)

winsol said:


> the reason for the halt was capital raising - see this mornings west australian newspaper
> 
> _Sundance raises $40m for Africa
> George Jones-led iron ore junior Sundance Resources is believed to have secured major new overseas backing ion a $40 million capital raising overnight, as investors warm to the potential of its rich Mbalam hematite project in Cameroon._




Thanks for the info!  Have you got a link or copy of the article in this mornings West Australian Newspaper?


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## hangseng (24 July 2007)

Fab said:


> If that is the case I am not too sure this will put a rocket under the share price tomorrow. Anyway we will see




This raising will have a positive effect on the sp, very positive. The raising at .40 will be held by large investors who are in no hurry to sell a stock that is heading for much bigger things. People have focussed narrowly only on the 1b+ tonne Mbalam prospect, the other within the Cameroon leases will make SDL one very large Fe company mining high grade hematite ore.

This announcement is no ordinary cap raising, look at the recent report. This project will be fast tracked and is sure to attract our friends in China.

GJ is also chairman of MUN and GBG, two other success stories in the making.


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## Piggy Bank (24 July 2007)

winsol,

I found a link to the article you referred to that speculates about the capital raising.  I have posted it here for other interested parties.

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/55124/Today-s-headlines


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## winsol (24 July 2007)

re link - see http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/55124/Today-s-headlines

the actual article (not on the internet) says that they could have easily raised $80m if they wanted to. There is huge interest.


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## hangseng (25 July 2007)

winsol said:


> re link - see http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/55124/Today-s-headlines
> 
> the actual article (not on the internet) says that they could have easily raised $80m if they wanted to. There is huge interest.




There most certainly is, I for one am extremely excited about this.

I also read with interest that GJ had meetings with UK and US interests and the Cameroon Govt has displayed strong support. He has also just recently returned from China (again). What has he been up to, are we also about to see the Chinese on board?

I would love to have his 1st class frequent flyers


----------



## tibby (25 July 2007)

SDL opened today after its trading halt at 53.5....looked as though it was going to open at above 60c until about 2 mins to open....alot of buyers currently sitting at .50. Volume at 25mil at 10:25am, very interested to see if we get a run later in the day once the dust of the open settles.


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## Fab (25 July 2007)

tibby said:


> SDL opened today after its trading halt at 53.5....looked as though it was going to open at above 60c until about 2 mins to open....alot of buyers currently sitting at .50. Volume at 25mil at 10:25am, very interested to see if we get a run later in the day once the dust of the open settles.




I am actually a bit disappointed as I was expecting a better opening. I guess the fact that the market is down very strongly does not help


----------



## whitta27 (25 July 2007)

depending on how well you think the 50cent support will hold - thers about 5 million shares waiting to be bought there . this may represent quality buying..
talbot is buying in big.. i can't see it dropping..

if you want to risk and wait for 45ish cents .. you might miss the results due out soon - and know one wants to do that.


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## tibby (25 July 2007)

Fab said:


> I am actually a bit disappointed as I was expecting a better opening. I guess the fact that the market is down very strongly does not help




I feel your pain...I thought that this may have opened a little higher, but I didnt expect this kind of selling depth without a little run first. I thought there would be profit takers but I would have thought that selling depth would have started in the early 60c range. Still,  Rome wasn't built in a day...announcement did mention that they were oversubscribed and gave the impression that they mustered up the cash with relative ease...the support is there. Dust will settle from the open soon.


----------



## golfmos123 (25 July 2007)

I'm not too surprised that the early run is faltering.  The announcement wasn't the one that most are waiting for.  The big one is the lab results to start confirming resource levels.  Expecting to see further softening today (might test 47-48?) but today's rise should at least keep the SP back in that 47-50odd band that developed a little while back.  The next move will be the one......


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## tibby (25 July 2007)

Guys I found a link to a great read on SDL ....Carmichael Research report from May 11, 2007.....absolute great read...enjoy 

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00202_SDL_11052007.pdf


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## woksta (26 July 2007)

Hey guys,

Another interesting read re: Capital raising which was one of the email alerts yesterday from the WA Business news website about WA property investor Ralph Sarich (inventor of the Orbital engine) backing Sundance.  

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en...Talbot-back-50m-Sundance-capital-raising-/dba


----------



## Love Zn (26 July 2007)

tibby said:


> Guys I found a link to a great read on SDL ....Carmichael Research report from May 11, 2007.....absolute great read...enjoy
> 
> http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00202_SDL_11052007.pdf




The report states that they have 200m listed options, I can't find any codes for these.

Anyone know what they are?


----------



## IOT (30 July 2007)

Fourth quarter activity and cash flow report out.

Looks good?!  Bring on tomorrow!  Hopefully we will see some more green.


----------



## Piggy Bank (30 July 2007)

IOT said:


> Fourth quarter activity and cash flow report out.
> 
> Looks good?!  Bring on tomorrow!  Hopefully we will see some more green.




The quarterly news is positive and should stabilise or improve share price.  However, I was hoping to accrue some more stock in SDL at bargain prices this week by taking advantage of people selling up on the background of a general market correction.  I have been acruing SDL stock since April 07 and will be happy if share price drops in the short term...as will snatch up more stock.  I think it will be a good medium to long term hold especially with expected ramp up of exploration activities.


----------



## sleeper88 (30 July 2007)

Piggy Bank said:


> The quarterly news is positive and should stabilise or improve share price.  However, I was hoping to accrue some more stock in SDL at bargain prices this week by taking advantage of people selling up on the background of a general market correction.  I have been acruing SDL stock since April 07 and will be happy if share price drops in the short term...as will snatch up more stock.  I think it will be a good medium to long term hold especially with expected ramp up of exploration activities.




its very very very positive news IMO, surface samples ranging from 60-70% is exceptional! The grades can't get better than this. As you said piggy, im very happy to accumulate this one, a sure winner in the long term. All that is needed is green in the US tonight, and the way this one goes!


----------



## tibby (31 July 2007)

Piggy Bank said:


> The quarterly news is positive and should stabilise or improve share price.  However, I was hoping to accrue some more stock in SDL at bargain prices this week by taking advantage of people selling up on the background of a general market correction.  I have been acruing SDL stock since April 07 and will be happy if share price drops in the short term...as will snatch up more stock.  I think it will be a good medium to long term hold especially with expected ramp up of exploration activities.




Hi Piggy...I dont think you are the only one wanting to accumalate...have you noticed whats happening during pre-close the last 2 days? Someone needs to help me out with this as surely others saw it...Monday 1mil order placed at .495 right at 4pm, thought at first it was just there to attract smaller buyers to eat in past 50c....to my surprise it stayed....then today...well check out the last 10 trades for the day....

31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 31870 $16,253.700   
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 78513 $40,041.630   
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 250000 $127,500.000   
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 100000 $51,000.000   
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 656933 $335,035.830 Crossed 
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 30000 $15,300.000   
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 10000 $5,100.000   
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 5255 $2,680.050 Crossed 
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 100000 $51,000.000 Crossed 
31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 20200 $10,302.000 


Someone is picking them up at pre-close...large orders, thats what we want to see........anyone else notice??


----------



## winsol (1 August 2007)

what was interesting was that someone sold 1.7 million in a single sale at 50 just 1 minute before close which looked like it would take it down.  Yes I saw the 1.5m at 51 which was reassuring.  That'll teach the wally who sold at 50!!!


----------



## winsol (1 August 2007)

Have just read yours again.  I realised you were talking monday.  What I saw was today.  There was a single buy order for 1.5 million at 51 that helped it close at that level - after it looked like it could be worse.


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## Piggy Bank (1 August 2007)

There is a lot of SDL stock on issue as of 30 July 2007

1,810,581,908 Fully paid ordinary shares
                        PLUS  
4,000,000 Options expiring 31-May-2010
36,833,334 Options expiring 30-Jun-2008
32,000,000 Options expiring 04-Jan-2012
50,000,000 Options expiring 03-Jan-2012

SDL's largest shareholder Talbot Group Holdings as of 11 July 2007 owned 226,257,002 shares (13.51%), this holding was further increased by 50,000,000 shares issued at 40 cents each in the recent share placement.

In the medium to long term it will be highly desirable if SDL can attract some more institutioinal and major stakeholders to purchase large chunks of the available stock "on market".  Effectively, less available stock to the general market the better.  Does any else have concerns about the current and future volume of issued stock available?


----------



## aussienorm (1 August 2007)

tibby said:


> Hi Piggy...I dont think you are the only one wanting to accumalate...have you noticed whats happening during pre-close the last 2 days? Someone needs to help me out with this as surely others saw it...Monday 1mil order placed at .495 right at 4pm, thought at first it was just there to attract smaller buyers to eat in past 50c....to my surprise it stayed....then today...well check out the last 10 trades for the day....
> 
> 31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 31870 $16,253.700
> 31-07-2007 04:10 PM $0.510 78513 $40,041.630
> ...




I  am more concerned about the manipulation of SDL yesterday.Approx 1.5-2.0 million on offer at 49.5,50.0 and 51 ALL DAY while at 50.5 there were about 100000 to buy.This stock was held all day at this level,clearly SDL is being bought/sold by the same broker/owner.Volumn for yesterday means nothing,shares are going around in a circle.I use E-trade Pro and see ever trade.This obviously allows the big buyer to soak up any shares on offer at a controlled price of 50.5,or is a takeover/merger with GBG closer than we think. SDl should have jumped yesterday with such a great samples report on Mondays release of quarterly activity report.Why was it released at 6.38 PM and the long awaited rock chip sample(65-69% Fe) burider in the middle????????????


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## gfresh (1 August 2007)

I've also noticed millions of buy orders at around the 40c mark when it was close to there, when it looked quite likely it would be back in the 30-40c area.. It does seem like large 'buy' walls are placed below key prices, 40c, 45c, 50c. It's quite possible it's just normal market activity with people playing the resistance levels, or somebody is playing some games.


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## tibby (1 August 2007)

Piggy Bank said:


> The quarterly news is positive and should stabilise or improve share price.  However, I was hoping to accrue some more stock in SDL at bargain prices this week by taking advantage of people selling up on the background of a general market correction.  I have been acruing SDL stock since April 07 and will be happy if share price drops in the short term...as will snatch up more stock.  I think it will be a good medium to long term hold especially with expected ramp up of exploration activities.




Hey Piggy...here is your chance to pick some up!!....can you do us all a favor and pull this one up to 50c by close!! 
So do you think we will see th pre-close 1mil+ buys that have been happening in the past??


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## Piggy Bank (1 August 2007)

tibby said:


> Hey Piggy...here is your chance to pick some up!!....can you do us all a favor and pull this one up to 50c by close!!
> So do you think we will see th pre-close 1mil+ buys that have been happening in the past??




Hi tibby...I have a pre-existing buy order (placed 3 days ago) at a bargain basement price of 0.40.  The stock will have to drop another 4 cents for my oder to be fullfilled.  This may happen if there is another drop in the US overnight and the All Ords drops below 6000???


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## whitta27 (2 August 2007)

.. ready to bounce - talbot buying more up until tuesday increased his holding again
..market consolidating over next few days could prove a good chance to buy this one in the 40's
whit


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## nikki (2 August 2007)

i am intrigued by your manipulation theories? why would talbot not manipulate the stock to his favour? he has bought a lot at .54 .48. 51! like all of you i think the most annoying thing about SDL will always be its large number of issued shares. that is why i think the annoucement today was most interesting and very positive. the more talbot buys the less will be out there for those undisciplined idiots who sell as low as 12% down in one day?????

did anyone know the quarterly report was comming out and was the 1 million placement for 0.495 some sort of insider trading? i was so disappointed with the way they hid the announcement re the sampling. i always thought the management team was excellent at working with the market and doing the best with the smallest amount of information. that is why i think there was something strange about the way all that excellent information was hidden in a quarterly report????? it did not even get a proper mention in the highlights section to draw the audience to it!!!!! something is happening?

the thing that most annoys me is why the stock cannot stay above 0.50??? is this like CBH that has to toy with 0.6 all the time? how long before it breaks resistance of 0.53 and 0.56?


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## tibby (2 August 2007)

nikki said:


> the thing that most annoys me is why the stock cannot stay above 0.50??? is this like CBH that has to toy with 0.6 all the time? how long before it breaks resistance of 0.53 and 0.56?





US markets need to settle for a few weeks, SDL will then move through the 50s IMO.....hopefully another 2 nights of green in the US to carry some confidence into next week.....Talbot group increasing there holdings to 16% is great and should give current holders the added reassurance they need to be patient over the coming weeks.......*everyone chill out!!!!!!!* 

Only my opinion.....which counts for jacksh@t


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## Pindor (2 August 2007)

nikki said:


> i am intrigued by your manipulation theories? why would talbot not manipulate the stock to his favour? he has bought a lot at .54 .48. 51! like all of you i think the most annoying thing about SDL will always be its large number of issued shares. that is why i think the annoucement today was most interesting and very positive. the more talbot buys the less will be out there for those undisciplined idiots who sell as low as 12% down in one day?????
> 
> did anyone know the quarterly report was comming out and was the 1 million placement for 0.495 some sort of insider trading? i was so disappointed with the way they hid the announcement re the sampling. i always thought the management team was excellent at working with the market and doing the best with the smallest amount of information. that is why i think there was something strange about the way all that excellent information was hidden in a quarterly report????? it did not even get a proper mention in the highlights section to draw the audience to it!!!!! something is happening?
> 
> the thing that most annoys me is why the stock cannot stay above 0.50??? is this like CBH that has to toy with 0.6 all the time? how long before it breaks resistance of 0.53 and 0.56?




I believe everyone had built in the expectation that the surface sampling would produce positive results - especially the company.  There were no surprises and hence the nresults were not particularly important. they simply confirmed the earlier UN work. It is the drilling reporty that will indicate the depth and true extent of the deposit.  In the meantime the buying is good at these prices.


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## nikki (7 August 2007)

What do you think of the placement of shares on behalf of Triangle Resources Fund? Anyone have insights into the potential of AMCI investing into sundance. I noticed the comment by the George that an AMCI geologist visited the site with him. The fact that they have put money in is very promising but why only $10 million?


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## AussiePaul72 (7 August 2007)

nikki said:


> What do you think of the placement of shares on behalf of Triangle Resources Fund? Anyone have insights into the potential of AMCI investing into sundance. I noticed the comment by the George that an AMCI geologist visited the site with him. The fact that they have put money in is very promising but why only $10 million?




Nikki, i don't have any big insight into this other than to see it as it is. It seems more than a coincidence that they have invested $10 million relatively soon after an AMCI geologist visited the site. Reading between the lines, I see this as very positive news. I might be way off track ....... but thats the way i see it!


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## springhill (17 August 2007)

ASX announcement Talbot group has increased their share holding in SDL by a further 50 million shares, bringing their holding to a total of 350 million or around 19% of the company. No suprise to me with the recent lull in price, wish i had grabbed me some more at 29.5 cents yesterday


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## Piggy Bank (21 August 2007)

Accumulated some more shares at 30 cents last week.  Talbot was busy buying up too and now owns nearly 20% of the company.  We are all still waiting to hear what the initial core sample results are?  Market reaction to positive results I suspect will be good but slightly reserved given overall market sentiment.  Less than positive results could have a very bad effect on the share price.  Wonder why there is a delay...need to have patience I guess?


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## vjindal (31 August 2007)

Any news on SDL ..Slowly but steadly climing up to 45..It looks like should cross 50 by next month or so.


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## springhill (31 August 2007)

vjindal said:


> Any news on SDL ..Slowly but steadly climing up to 45..It looks like should cross 50 by next month or so.




My theory is its getting pulled along by the slipstream of GBG, its stablemate. GBG looks closer to getting its operation off the ground and investors start to believe that if GBG can make it why not SDL? Nothing like proven success to shore up confidence. Both very exciting and am happy to be in both.


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## tibby (31 August 2007)

There is some big buying going on right now...and on a Friday afternoon! Will be an interesting last half an hour...announcement maybe close? Something is brewing. Pushing 47c close??


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## adobee (3 September 2007)

There is alot of buying this morning as well.. Has anything heard anything re an announcement for SDL ?? I guess there is a lot of selling as well though ??


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## AussiePaul72 (3 September 2007)

adobee said:


> There is alot of buying this morning as well.. Has anything heard anything re an announcement for SDL ?? I guess there is a lot of selling as well though ??




Hmmmm .... this may be out of left field .... but i wonder if something is happening that incorporates both SDL & GDG. George Jones is on the board of both.
GBG made an announcement this morning that they are talking to a third party about an agreement ....wonder if this involves SDL aswell.....as both company SP have been surging over the recent trading days.
This may be completely wrong .... just crossed my mind though ...DYOR


----------



## golfmos123 (3 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> .... but i wonder if something is happening that incorporates both SDL & GDG. George Jones is on the board of both.
> GBG made an announcement this morning that they are talking to a third party about an agreement ....wonder if this involves SDL aswell.....as both company SP have been surging over the recent trading days.
> This may be completely wrong .... just crossed my mind though ...DYOR




I guess we'll find out if you're right soon as according to the announcement to the GBG speeding ticket, there might be something coming on this by the end of the week.  Looks like an interesting week anyway.....


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## nikki (4 September 2007)

it seems iron ore companies are generally doing well. anyone know if there is a connection between CFE's trading halt and GBG!!! I am guessing no because both would have to be in a trading halt for that.

i think Talbot has buying a lot and getting rid of resistance in the stock price for SDL. someoneone bought 1 million plus and removed .45 as resistance and then did the same at .48 at the close of businness on friday. 

unfortunately the candlestick for both GBG and SDL mean that we are on the way down unless there is something interesting in terms of news for SDL. i am not sure if i am correct on this but we are waiting for test results from the samples that were sent to south africa a while back for sdl. i am hoping something good will happen soon because I am a little scared of what september will bring for all stocks given that it is usually the worst month of the year at a very dangerous time in the stock market cycle.


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## tibby (6 September 2007)

SDL added to ASX 300 today, effective after close of trade on September 21....now exposed to the bigger money of Instos and managed funds


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## Fab (12 September 2007)

Hi,

I am not sure where to post this question but I guess here is as good as anywhere else. When are the iron ore price due to be renegociated with China? I understand it is soon and it might have a positive impact on share such as SDL.
Also when is SDL due to release drilling results?


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## Piggy Bank (12 September 2007)

Can anyone explain to me in plain English what today's ASX annoucement means regarding the "secondary trading exemption" of the issued securities?   Why has the announcement of the finalisation of this share placement improved the SP?


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## nikki (12 September 2007)

no idea what it means but the movement in price appears like a technical move rather than a news related one. i think traders must have seen the rejection of 0.495 as a signal that sellers had dried up. the move above 0.53 must have surprised some of us who know sdl well but it seems to have been manipulated by those riding the tide. there were several 500 - 1 million buyers around .53 who helped break resistance. the price has stablised around 0.53 and 0.535!!! 

i thought that maybe the annoucement re the placement was a signal that some other news might be comming soon but who knows!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## AussiePaul72 (12 September 2007)

Very strong days trading for SDL. It started out trading in the consistent 0.495 to 0.505 range on lowish volumes. The announcement was released at 10.44am but did not seem to affect the SP. Then within half an hour (12.30-1.00pm) the SP shot up to 0.53. For the entire rest of the afternoon, the SP traded between 0.52 and 0.545 on good volume.
I'd really like to know what triggered the jump in SP and strong trading at the higher level. Was it just cos the sellers had dried up? Was there an announcement leak into the market? Is there another reason?
As a holder of SDL i'm enjoying the ride


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## IOT (13 September 2007)

take off!  wonder whats coming?                                                       
glad to see some movement after that consolidation.


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## springhill (13 September 2007)

IOT said:


> take off!  wonder whats coming?
> glad to see some movement after that consolidation.




There is surely good news heading our way, from past experience the SDL "cone of silence" when it comes to announcements leaks like a sieve!!
Look for break and hold of previous top of 56/56.5 as a sure sign something is coming


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## Risky Trader (13 September 2007)

I would hope so... or may be some big buyers created a euphoria and everyone just tag along. 

*There is no such thing call guarantee in life*


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## adobee (13 September 2007)

This seems really popular today.. I am not holding but am thinking of jumping in for a quick buck...  I have to think someone has been talking to someone about something...!!


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## adobee (13 September 2007)

I am in for a very small parcel .. (at the highest point mind you!!) 
There is good depth on this as well!


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## tibby (13 September 2007)

SDL ASX 300 listing becomes effective after September 21...wonder if that is fueling the fire as well??


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## Risky Trader (13 September 2007)

If SP 300 is fuelling this firestorm... then this will not last....and going to return to 54/55 mark .. unless they found diamonds instead of ore at cameroon 

*you snooze, you lose*


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## tibby (13 September 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> If SP 300 is fuelling this firestorm... then this will not last....and going to return to 54/55 mark .. unless they found diamonds instead of ore at cameroon
> 
> *you snooze, you lose*




I meant that the ASX 300 listing could be adding fuel, obviously the fire is set on a pending announcement...asx 300 listing is a great benefit to SDL...after September 21st SDL will have more exposure with the Insto's and managed funds that only buy in ASX 300 listed companies.........and as for the return to the 54/55 mark...diamonds, iron ore, dosent matter....this one may retrace as profit takers stag there profits...remember that only a few weeks ago this one fell hard over a few days to around 30c..profit takers may be looking at 100% return over the last month. Slow and steady wins the race and I have no doubt that this upward trend will continue as the company sheds light on its progress...dosent have to happen over night.


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## springhill (13 September 2007)

:bier: SDL at an all time high of 63cents as I type
My contact mentioned it would be round $1.00 at end of year, didnt expect it to get there today. Slight exaggeration? Yes
Wonder when profit taking will kick in?
P.S I love you George Jones


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## sleeper88 (13 September 2007)

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00213_IP Sep 07.pdf

Check out their recent presentation dated the 11th sept


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## nikki (13 September 2007)

thanks for the document. is the drilling data in the document from the UNDP study? hmmmm - did the broker announcement just tell us that they have nothing to say!!!


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## adobee (13 September 2007)

I think there may be something else coming, the broker coverage may be just to minimise the chance of a speeding ticket from the asx


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## Duckman#72 (13 September 2007)

tibby said:


> I meant that the ASX 300 listing could be adding fuel, obviously the fire is set on a pending announcement...asx 300 listing is a great benefit to SDL...after September 21st SDL will have more exposure with the Insto's and managed funds that only buy in ASX 300 listed companies.........and as for the return to the 54/55 mark...diamonds, iron ore, dosent matter....this one may retrace as profit takers stag there profits...remember that only a few weeks ago this one fell hard over a few days to around 30c..profit takers may be looking at 100% return over the last month. Slow and steady wins the race and I have no doubt that this upward trend will continue as the company sheds light on its progress...dosent have to happen over night.




I can remember posting exactly the same thing this time last year when Bemax was admitted to the ASX300. AS it turned out all the "exposure to the insto's and fund managers" did stuff all for the share price. I know that mineral sands is a world away from Sundance but if you have a look at BMX announcements and b/sheet you would have expected a better result from ASX300 admission.

Duckman


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## AussiePaul72 (13 September 2007)

Duckman#72 said:


> I can remember posting exactly the same thing this time last year when Bemax was admitted to the ASX300. AS it turned out all the "exposure to the insto's and fund managers" did stuff all for the share price. I know that mineral sands is a world away from Sundance but if you have a look at BMX announcements and b/sheet you would have expected a better result from ASX300 admission.
> 
> Duckman




Agree Duckman ... IMHO i don't think being admitted to the ASX300 is having a big influence at all ... not at the moment anyway. The last couple of days trading has been awesome ... big move in SP motoring through the previous high point today. 
Reading between the lines of todays SDL announcement was ... 'Please Mr ASX don't give me a speeding ticket'. There seems to be something VERY BIG going on behind the seens with some very positive news... and whatever has been leaked is getting traders very turned on!! Of course this is only my opinion and wouldn't be surprised if i was totally off track .... what do others think is going on at present? Are we about to see a very positive announcement?


----------



## greenfs (13 September 2007)

This is an awesome chart, especially for those that are alaready on board. I will add to my list to monitor but it may be too late to get on board now. Good luck to all you holders.


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## Agentm (13 September 2007)

greenfs said:


> View attachment 13084
> 
> 
> This is an awesome chart, especially for those that are alaready on board. I will add to my list to monitor but it may be too late to get on board now. Good luck to all you holders.





looks like a ramp to mme..

and should be treated accordingly, be wary of chartists..

good luck to all holders..


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## golfmos123 (13 September 2007)

Agentm said:


> looks like a ramp to mme..
> 
> and should be treated accordingly, be wary of chartists..
> 
> good luck to all holders..




Doesn't seem to be much point trying to ramp something here that has >1.8 billion shares.  All forum readers going bezerk buying up together wouldn't make much impact on the SP anyway.

Hard to read todays ann as anything other than a speeding ticket avoidance as others have said.  Also can't believe that it could be instos and others buying up early before it hits the 300 index in the hope of getting it a bit cheaper either.  I smell a further announcement coming...we are due some lab results from the drilling program at some stage don't forget.


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## springhill (13 September 2007)

Yes well this chart isnt intended to ramp, but notice the almost identical 2 day movement patterns in june and then again in sept wonder if, as in june we are due for a high start, then fall and recover. If there is news afoot look for another cracker of a day tomorrow. Im leaning towards an announcement leak personally


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## 1234 (13 September 2007)

buying has been all in ~.5mil all along.

Same person, same ramp, same effect, disguised badly- then the cover up attempt coz ppl caught on and joined the party.

(IMO) 

Happy to be wrong!


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## springhill (13 September 2007)

1234 said:


> buying has been all in ~.5mil all along.
> 
> Same person, same ramp, same effect, disguised badly- then the cover up attempt coz ppl caught on and joined the party.
> 
> ...




Hi Mr/Ms One Thousand Two Hundred and Thirty Four
Im finding your post a bit vague, obviously you have a theory on the rise today and a person in mind responsible. With all due respect would you care to elaborate? Cheers


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## 1234 (14 September 2007)

springhill said:


> Hi Mr/Ms One Thousand Two Hundred and Thirty Four
> Im finding your post a bit vague, obviously you have a theory on the rise today and a person in mind responsible. With all due respect would you care to elaborate? Cheers




Yes I have a theory, Yes I'll be vague! You know what I mean too... 

Moving on no information, without any clue as to why anyone would trade at that volume, with no reason. A $1.2m trade went thru, on speculation backed by the fact the co. has good reason to believe it will do well, and people invest in it??? Massive infrastructure to go into place to boot, on a plan to be worldwide?? These trades don't even show, they just happen.. 

I don't have an issue, I bought in @ .36, sold for a quik buck - no complaints.. BUT c'mon?? Marketing is working well granted..


Is this the worlds worst kept secret, or next Poseidon ??  



Oh, it's Mr


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## Miner (14 September 2007)

Dear Mr 1234 et al

MHO is you please refer to today's announcements in ASX from SDL.
This company iron base is excellent 60% compared to FMG 58%, Rio /BHPB 59-61%.
Its Feas study looks like excellent.
Please look at their investor presentation even if it was marketing ploy. People investing millions are not fool there.
They have done a share placement
When every one was down then SDL got a good support at 40 cents with heavy sales order. Of course there are parties behind to support. Don't you like that to support a fall.
Southern Equities has recommended SDL to its clients.
At least three big brokers went overseas to visit their plants.
Chart only predicts from past. Fundamental is the thing for future.
Choice is yours : live in past glories or earn cash on future tradings.
I invested a paltry sum from my young son at 40 cents - He is ready to reap on it. I was never lucky in other  shares and mostly they were dud. But this time dad did not become dud.

I am not ramping -just saying it has good basis.


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## springhill (14 September 2007)

Miner said:


> I invested a paltry sum from my young son at 40 cents - He is ready to reap on it. I was never lucky in other  shares and mostly they were dud. But this time dad did not become dud.




Good on you Miner, there should be more parents out there like you, thats a great thing you have done for your son.
Me thinks this dad may become dude very soon!!!!!


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## adobee (14 September 2007)

Miner said:


> Dear Mr 1234 et al
> 
> MHO is you please refer to today's announcements in ASX from SDL.
> This company iron base is excellent 60% compared to FMG 58%, Rio /BHPB 59-61%.
> ...




Good stuff the key is not to let your son touch them.. I was bought a parcel of Woodside when I was young and sold them at $9 to buy a car.. The car is now worth nothing the shares are around $45 last time I checked....


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## wipz (14 September 2007)

Hi fellas, Im new here but am a holder of SDL as of tuesday.. I have been following this stock for quite some time and have a copy of this report from southern equities..   Just a few quotes out of it that got me excited:

" I think once a few larger brokers start covering Sundance in coming months the stock will be well north of $1.00 and I think its going a lot higher near term."

"If you use this years lump price of US$1.02 then the received price would be around US$62.00 FOB meaning that margin would expand to US$47.50 per tonne and multiply that by 35mpta of production and you get EBIT of US$1.6 billion  meaning SDL is trading here at 50c (market cap US$740m) on 0.5x EBIT…I don`t mean 5x I mean 0.5x!!  Thus SDL must be the cheapest iron ore company in the world in my view."

"Attached is Sundance`s latest presentation…I reckon the guys investing in this stock are clearly of the view this is a $3-4 stock through time and right now on a risk reward basis it looks very cheap right now and I think the last market meltdown a few weeks ago shook a lot of the hot money of the registers of small and mid cap mining stocks and thus on any good news I can see how SDL can easily run to $1.00 on good news."

Very exciting stuff,... will accumulate this one anything below 60c.

Feel free to comment. 

Cheers


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## ta2693 (14 September 2007)

SDL has a big deposit of Fe deposit. That is what the market excited about. 
But that information is there when SDL's price is 16c to 20c. It is very hard for me to believe this information has not absorbed into the price after 3 months.
So, I think 30c is ok for SDL if no further good news coming. I think SDl will back to 30 to 40c level if no good news coming next week. 

SDL is not necessarily the best share to do long term investment. Of you have reason to believe so. 

FWL has iron project. RVR has iron project, CFE has iron project, ARV(mapplo) has iron project, ACS has iron project, Mmx has iron project, GBG has iron project.Yml has iron project etc etc. why SDL has to be better investment than others?  I doubt if all the iron projects come into production, what the iron price will be? and Most of them can produce earlier than SDL. 

above all, I do not think 60c is cheap for SDL.


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## greenfs (14 September 2007)

I agree with the last poster. Whilst I am heavily into GBG, I am always looking for the next GBG. From a strictly chart view point this share could very easily be heading towards $1 in the near future, but I suspect it will not get there.

I repeat from yesterday:

(i) this is one of the best charts (MACD, DMI and volume all positive) I have seen in recent times - refer my post yesterday for chart
(ii) I am NOT a holder of the stock and therefore personally am not concerned if any subscriber accuses me of ramping the stock


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## nikki (14 September 2007)

my own technical comparative analysis between sdl and other iron ore's made me sell my 1million @ 8 cents; 500000 @ 17cents, 500000 @40cents. there is something interesting about the management team that makes up sdl and they seem pretty good at driving the share price even when the arguments about the fundamentals are unproven. look at the investor presentation materials that still relies on UNDP figures to spark interest in the potential of the project. all of their current drill holes (not 100% sure if i am 100% accurate on this) are in areas previously worked on by the UNDP financed project. is the stock expensive @ 60cents. who cares if you are trading the stock as opposed to investing in the company???

of more importance to me is whether the credit crunch will affect their ability to finance future infrastructure rather than the oversupply of iron ore. look at BHP's feasibility project in iron ore for 2010 - who cares about the other smaller speculative.


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## springhill (14 September 2007)

Wow todays movement was eerily similar to junes followup to the spike.
Who says history never repeats?
Guess we will see this drift along til the next bloodrush


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## 1234 (14 September 2007)

springhill said:


> Wow todays movement was eerily similar to junes followup to the spike.
> Who says history never repeats?
> Guess we will see this drift along til the next bloodrush




I reckon I did?? lol.

Funny eh... It's all good........... Like I said before, what's making this stock move?? 

The action on this in pre-open was horrendous.. silly in-fact.. All hype & games imo. As long as u guys are making money in the game, then all is well!! 



1234 said:


> history repeats eh..
> 
> look at the identical situation in June.
> 
> bit of a worry??


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## EZZA (16 September 2007)

hi guys,

Just took a look at sdl and gbg, the cap of sdl is over 1 bill, whereas gbg is 800 million.  does that mean that the value of the estimated reserves for sdl is considered more than gbg.  as the cap reflects that it is more.

Also a holder of gbg.  Just trying to work out how cheap this stock is?  Is it cheaper than gbg? if so is it to do with the grade of the io. 
Article on this stock in fin review friday, interesting that the chairman on gbg is also chairman of sdl.


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## greenfs (19 September 2007)

Well now we know why SDL has had a rocket in recent times. The following extract from an article published in today's Age on BusinesDay 4 is provided...

Iron ore hopeful Sundance Resources Ltd has appointed coal baron Ken Talbot as a non-executive director of the company's board. 

The appointment came after Mr Talbot's investment vehicle - Talbot Group - amassed a 19.6% stake in Sundance, making it the company's largest shareholder


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## Fab (19 September 2007)

I am not too sure that Talbot being on the board of SDL is changing anything so. I can see a lot of common ground between SDL and FMG. FMG was around this share price few years ago and now is over $39.

I don't think SDL share price has stopped sky rocketing so. Specially if Iron ore negociation increase the iron ore price. When are these negotiations taking place? Any idea?


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## daggs (19 September 2007)

EZZA said:


> hi guys,
> 
> Just took a look at sdl and gbg, the cap of sdl is over 1 bill, whereas gbg is 800 million.  does that mean that the value of the estimated reserves for sdl is considered more than gbg.  as the cap reflects that it is more.
> 
> ...




GBG - Main project magnetite.
SDL - Hematite.

Worth doing some research into the difference, but in short magnetite costs a lot more to produce (Power, water, capital etc).

Both great companies though IMO.
I hold GBG and have traded SDL. Will take a longer term hold in SDL when I think the timings right.


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## nikki (19 September 2007)

wat da!!! 0.7 for sdl! talbot and jones better create some magic soon. noticed other metals going up significantly today - hope you are making lots of money!!!


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## nikki (19 September 2007)

anyone willing to sell me their sdl for .3 cents? i would be very glad to buy some today???


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## nikki (19 September 2007)

any ideas on where this increadibly heavy buying power might be coming from @ 0.7 - 0.705. someone on the yahoo chat says it might be the chinese buying into sdl. anyone heard anything about this rumour???


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## vjindal (19 September 2007)

There was a article in THE AUSTRALIAN today about some Chinese company buying a big stake in SDL - That may explain the recent rise of SDL.


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## Risky Trader (19 September 2007)

Yaaa.. may be Uncle HU wants all the ore in the world to build another Great wall of china with metal...

_Who cares about the rest, as long you are making the $$_


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## Fab (19 September 2007)

vjindal said:


> There was a article in THE AUSTRALIAN today about some Chinese company buying a big stake in SDL - That may explain the recent rise of SDL.




Do you have a link to this article? I would be very interested to read it 
It would and will explain future rise of the stock if that is the case.


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## greenfs (19 September 2007)

Fab said:


> Do you have a link to this article? I would be very interested to read it
> It would and will explain future rise of the stock if that is the case.




Here is a link to a much older article dated 03/2007, which makes very interesting reading:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21390545-23634,00.html

Basically, it compares FML to SDL


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## Craze0123 (19 September 2007)

you mean it compares it to Fortescue (FMG) not Focus (FML)....I think theres a big difference......


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## vjindal (19 September 2007)

Sorry guys, my apologies - The Article was in the AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW newspaper  in the section called STREET TALK.

"Sundance Resources mentioned here last week , which is hoping to develop an iron ore project in 
the West African nation of Cameroon , has managed to hold onto the gain in its share price
from 40c to 65c
And former Macarthur Coal boss Ken Talbot yesterday confirmed his days as a director of a public
company were anything but over by joining the Sundance board , reflecting his 19.9 % stake
in the company.
But as he is close to Hong Kong/China's Citic Investment group, which now owns 19.9 % of McArthur
after buying more of his stock recently, there is also speculation that Citic will soon make its
presence on the Sundance register. This follows rumuours of Chinese buying in the stock as part
of last week's rally in the share price.
Citic is rumoured to be buying or about to buy 14.9% of Sundance.
It has invested in the large cape preston magnetite project in the Pilbarra after striking
a deal with Clive Palmer's Mineralogy Group last year"


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## nikki (19 September 2007)

i found this the other day and there is info in it that was new and interesting to me. i am not sure if it has been posted on this site before so sorry if you have already seen it. the reference to CEMEC in china investing in the region and also the comparison of SDL with FMG/MGX is good.

www.rmresearch.com.au/images/PDF/pdf-rmresearch/SDL_RM RESEARCH_15_11_2006.pdf


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## Miner (19 September 2007)

Folks
This is an extract on iron ore industry: applicable to Rio Tinto (45% iron ore), BHPB, GBG, SDL, FMG, Atlas Iron, MMX and all
The catch is only few of them no in producer status to reap the real benefit in price hike in 2008.

"JP Morgan commodity specialists lifted their price forecasts for iron ore this week. They now anticipate a price rise of at least 25% at the upcoming negotiations and another 10% rise for the following Japanese fiscal year. As a result of this, earnings estimates for Fortescue jumped by 89% and 46% respectively for 2008-09 and 2009-10."


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## michael_selway (20 September 2007)

Fab said:


> I am not too sure that Talbot being on the board of SDL is changing anything so. I can see a lot of common ground between SDL and FMG. FMG was around this share price few years ago and now is over $39.
> 
> I don't think SDL share price has stopped sky rocketing so. Specially if Iron ore negociation increase the iron ore price. When are these negotiations taking place? Any idea?




Does SDl have a limited mine life? how does it compare with FMG?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -26.2 -51.4 174.2 398.0 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1 *


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## springhill (20 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Does SDl have a limited mine life? how does it compare with FMG?
> 
> thx
> 
> ...




Its my understanding at current levels the mine life in cameroon is 20 years but with further drilling and exploration of possible new areas of interest this could increase, or rates of production per annum ramped up.


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## Fab (20 September 2007)

springhill said:


> Its my understanding at current levels the mine life in cameroon is 20 years but with further drilling and exploration of possible new areas of interest this could increase, or rates of production per annum ramped up.




Sounds pretty good. I don't think ZFX had a mine life that long and look at where it is trading now and paying dividend. What is the expected mine life of FMG?


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## Love Zn (20 September 2007)

The reasons why SDL is being compared to FMG is that they are both large Hematite resources.  SDL will also need to raise large captial like FMG to build a port and long rail system.  FMG's start up production is expected to be around 25MT pa, whereas SDL are planning 35MT pa.

I've always believed FMG's SP is over inflated, a very good sales job by Twiggy (well done to him and share holders), but I don't see this being repeated by other up and coming companies, including SDL.

I do believe SDL will do very well for long term holders, but is still a very speculative share, and still a high risk.  The risks will decrease and price increase as we get the first drilling reports (due September Qrt), then the PFS, followed by BFS and then securing of capital, which is still a couple of years away.

What does help is Mr Jones experience with Portman getting them from explorer to producer and now with Mr. Talbot joining the board, this will also add experience and contacts for the required capital raising.

I just hope all these people keep speculating and throwing up wild theories of merges, increases my chance of winning the September tipping


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## nikki (20 September 2007)

"I do believe SDL will do very well for long term holders, but is still a very speculative share, and still a high risk. The risks will decrease and price increase as we get the first drilling reports (due September Qrt), then the PFS, followed by BFS and then securing of capital, which is still a couple of years away."


Hey Love Zn, I assume you were referring to the first quarter report which is due at the end of October?


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## nikki (21 September 2007)

fess up - who bought that 900000+ lot at the closing auction today and why? which one of you sold that 1000000+ lot at the closing auction and why?


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## vjindal (21 September 2007)

Buyers were at 72.5 and sellers at 73 seconds before close...Someone has picked up huge chunck after the close. Any idea guys?


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## Djayness (21 September 2007)

Bump - I bought quite a few of these shares recently as URI didnt actually float on the market for some strange reason. I have a friend who invested a substantial amount back when the share price was around 20 cents and ive been wanting to buy it ever since.

In some respects ive missed the boat a bit having bought in at 70 cents though SDL seems quite a good stock in the long run.


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## michael_selway (22 September 2007)

springhill said:


> Its my understanding at current levels the mine life in cameroon is 20 years but with further drilling and exploration of possible new areas of interest this could increase, or rates of production per annum ramped up.




Not bad, yep 20 years 35mtpa which is pretty good



> Key Parameters for the Scoping study:
> Resource size: 700mt
> Grade: >60% iron
> Fines (Max) 70%
> ...




thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 -- -- -- 
EPS -0.3 -- -- -- 
DPS 0.0 -- -- --


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## nikki (24 September 2007)

both GBG and SDL in a trading halt!!! wow!! I wonder what that means? maybe they are trying to become a mega iron ore company????


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## AussiePaul72 (24 September 2007)

nikki said:


> both GBG and SDL in a trading halt!!! wow!! I wonder what that means? maybe they are trying to become a mega iron ore company????




You just beat me to it Nikki ......have just posted in GBG thread ..........very interesting ..... same announcement by both companies and submitted within a minute of each to ASX ..... maybe nothing in it but seems too much of a coincidence .......this will be interesting?


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## Risky Trader (24 September 2007)

EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! Finally...

For those of you hold SDL or GBG shares...

Better place your Ferrari / BMW / JAG order..


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## Djayness (24 September 2007)

*SDL Trading Halt*

Well SDL is in a trading halt for today and an announcement is expected to be released by the end of trading today. I havent been keeping up with SDL as much as i should have been and thus am a little off as to what they could be announcing to warrent a trading halt.

The last time they went on holt was the 23rd of july to release over 1.8 billion in shares onto the market. What could it be this time?


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## Love Zn (24 September 2007)

My guess is that it's unrelated.

SDL is due for it's first drilling results that were started the end of June.  This is their first step in proving their resources for a JORC.

GBG is also expecting drilling results from it's Lodestone project or could be announcing that they are joining MIS in the Yilgarn Infrastructure Project.


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## nikki (24 September 2007)

DJ Gindalbie Metals, Sundance Resources To Merge - Source24/09/2007 11:19AM AEST  
PERTH (Dow Jones)--Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (GBG.AU) and Sundance Resources Ltd. (SDL.AU) plan to merge, a person familiar with the deal said Monday. 

The two iron ore mine developers are based in Perth and are chaired by Western Australian mining veteran George Jones. 

The deal would likely involve a share swap, the person said, and could be announced as early as Monday. 

Based on the market values of the companies, the merger would create a A$2.2 billion group. 

Shares in both companies are in a trading halt. 

By Stephen Bell, contributing to Dow Jones Newswires


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## michael_selway (24 September 2007)

nikki said:


> DJ Gindalbie Metals, Sundance Resources To Merge - Source24/09/2007 11:19AM AEST
> PERTH (Dow Jones)--Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (GBG.AU) and Sundance Resources Ltd. (SDL.AU) plan to merge, a person familiar with the deal said Monday.
> 
> The two iron ore mine developers are based in Perth and are chaired by Western Australian mining veteran George Jones.
> ...




What would the prices be when the merge?

thx

MS

*
GBG - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -0.7 -0.5 7.2 9.4 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

SDL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 -- -- -- 
EPS -0.3 -- -- -- 
DPS 0.0 -- -- -- 
*


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## AussiePaul72 (24 September 2007)

Announcement ready to be released ........titled 'Gindalbie & Sundance Proposed Merger' (GBG) ......... wow .....this is huge for both companies in my opinion .....will be interesting to see details!!


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## Risky Trader (24 September 2007)

GBG / SDL merger proposal released

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00761980

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00761982


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## Djayness (24 September 2007)

Merger announcement is out and theres like a 57 page document (pdf) that im madly reading about. What does it mean if they do merge in regards to our shares?

The status has been set to "adjusting" so we will see what the market thinks about it quite soon. Interesting.


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## Risky Trader (24 September 2007)

Regarding the share 

Usually the basic rule is 

_total net assets value from combined companies / total shares = new share price
holder of old shares (either companies) have options to buy new shares at certain price_

But... this merger might be different...


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## michael_selway (24 September 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> Regarding the share
> 
> Usually the basic rule is
> 
> ...




Thanks MS

"Details of the Agreement and Offer
Under the terms of the proposed Scheme of Arrangement, Sundance shareholders will receive one (1) Gindalbie share for every
two (2) Sundance shares they hold. Based on the closing price of Gindalbie shares on 21 September 2007 of $1.70, the offer
values Sundance at approximately A$1.6 billion and represents a premium of 14.9% on the closing price of Sundance shares on
21 September 2007 of 74 cents, and a 34.5% premium to the 30-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) of Sundance
shares.
On completion of the merger, the new entity would have approximately 1.43 billion shares on issue with an estimated market
capitalization of approximately A$2.4 billion based on the closing price of Gindalbie shares on 21 September of $1.70. Gindalbie
securityholders would hold approximately 35% and Sundance securityholders approximately 65% of the merged company."


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## nikki (24 September 2007)

is SDL a speculative buy anymore? i assume that now SDL's price is linked to GBG. anyone know how on earth this merger will be debt free or is that simply because SDL has a lot of money already which it is using for its studies.

this is not good for the major shareholders of GBG given the dilution of their shares. i assume we will see a fair amoung of GBG shares dumped by major shareholders who may not like the move?


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## Djayness (24 September 2007)

Its already happening, GBG just went down almost 3% whilst SDL went up by around 11%, there seems to be mixed emotions about the takeover but as an SDL shareholder hey im all for it!


----------



## Fab (24 September 2007)

Djayness said:


> Its already happening, GBG just went down almost 3% whilst SDL went up by around 11%, there seems to be mixed emotions about the takeover but as an SDL shareholder hey im all for it!




I am wondering why this deal is good for SDL and not for GBG? Shouldn't it be good for both? I am an SDL holder so I am happy but then I am not too sure I want to exchange my SDL for GDG.


----------



## forbesaw (24 September 2007)

I have both shares in sundancer and gindalbie metals. What does this mean in regards to holding sundancer shares


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## nikki (24 September 2007)

for sdl it gives it access to the GBG's main chinese partner although i assume that the joint venture is linked to one mine only. gbg has a number of major shareholders who might invest more into the current sdl projects. for gbg they get talbot and all the fantastic investors supporting sdl. more importantly, i assume this takes the gbg/sdl into the asx 200 with that kind of market capitalisation. this will put it on par with mgx/fmg/mmx. although the iron ore price negotiations are mainly driven by bhp and rio i suspect the benefits for sdl will be greater and sooner because gbg is closer to production and will benefit more from the price rise in iron ore from october.

i do not hold gbg but given this merger i would be more interested in buying some because of the value i place on sdl and its mine in cameroon. so, i think this is good for everyone. 

i think we will see some bigger dumps of gbg tommorrow before prices begin to stabalise a little. it seems that 0.8 for sdl is great value at the moment.


----------



## tony montana (24 September 2007)

So whats the deal here, they want us to pay a $1.70 for gbg shares even though sdl were 74c can some pls clarify this for me.....nebby everywhere you go.


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## the barry (24 September 2007)

tony montana said:


> So whats the deal here, they want us to pay a $1.70 for gbg shares even though sdl were 74c can some pls clarify this for me.....nebby everywhere you go.




Your having a lend right?

You get 1 GBG share for every 2 SDL shares that you own under the proposed merger.


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## the barry (24 September 2007)

The benfits are going to be fantastic for both companies.

Through merging the companies they will boast a diversified product range with outstanding projects in the new companies portfolio. We are yet to get confirmation on the total resource size of the Cameroon and Lodestone projects. They could be massive

There will also be a substantial market cap which will allow for growth and project funding. GBG will be producing first which brings in cash flow which will add stability to SDL taking it from explorer to producer and will add to the chance that the Cameroon project will produce.

These are extremely exciting days for both companies and will pave the way for the new company to become a major player in the iron ore market into the next decade.


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## greenfs (24 September 2007)

I look forward to congratulations from other subscribers for my post made under GBG on 17/09/2007 suggesting that a merger with SDL was on the cards. This was not insider info. Sometimes 1+1=2.


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## michael_selway (24 September 2007)

greenfs said:


> I look forward to congratulations from other subscribers for my post made under GBG on 17/09/2007 suggesting that a merger with SDL was on the cards. This was not insider info. Sometimes 1+1=2.




DO you reckon MIS, is a likely M & A target?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 1.2 1.2 8.3 17.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 1.0 14.5 *

thx

MS


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## tony montana (24 September 2007)

the barry said:


> Your having a lend right?
> 
> You get 1 GBG share for every 2 SDL shares that you own under the proposed merger.




what we just get them given to us for just holding sdl?
i suppose i should just read the 51 page announcement.


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## dj_420 (24 September 2007)

tony montana said:


> what we just get them given to us for just holding sdl?
> i suppose i should just read the 51 page announcement.




GBG and SDL are merging together, so they will form one company, not two... one. 

for every two SDL shares you hold you be given one GBG. so if you have 10 000 SDL, you will now have 5000 GBG. 

perhaps you should read the ann to get a better understanding of what is happening.

anyways i had mixed emotions on how i felt about it, first i thought GBG have paid to much, then i read a bit more about SDL and provided that the new company can prove up some massive resources then it will only add value in the long run. 

it would be good if GBG had merged with a company closer to production, but the production starting next year at karara will get cash flow happening for development of magnetite resource and SDL's resources in africa.


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## Risky Trader (24 September 2007)

Reading the proposal..

It sounds like the merger is pretty much a done deal, given that Jones is on both company board.

The only real mystery left is, How much Big investor willing to pour into this new giant company....

Exciting times ahead?, well.. I reckon SDL holders should fasten their seat belt and enjoy the ride ahead..

**Coninue Tony montana quote
first you get the money!! then you get the power!!!
_After you got money!! get your women_
_After you got your women! get yourself a damn good lawyer_

**Cause you going to need it! hahahaha


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## dj_420 (24 September 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> Reading the proposal..
> Exciting times ahead?, well.. I reckon SDL holders should fasten their seat belt and enjoy the ride ahead..




in that case shouldnt both SDL and GBG holders be fastening seatbelts for the ride? lol

from todays action if the merger goes ahead, GBG closed at 1.635 which divided by 2 gives 0.8175, SDL closed at 80.5, so for the meantime SDL shares are tracking slightly behind or they are a little cheaper entry into the SDL/GBG merger.

the thing is now they should track each other share price very closely, so if SDL goes up 10% to 90 cents then GBG would be worth 1.80 and sp should reflect that.

anyone wanting to get in should be watching both companies closely and a sell off or downturn could mean a cheaper entry into the new iron ore giant.


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## sleeper88 (24 September 2007)

Just wondering, if SDL are to release drilling results and they turn out to be spectacular, would this still be reflected in the SP or not, since its now tracked to GBG's SP?


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## AussiePaul72 (24 September 2007)

dj_420 said:


> in that case shouldnt both SDL and GBG holders be fastening seatbelts for the ride? lol
> 
> from todays action if the merger goes ahead, GBG closed at 1.635 which divided by 2 gives 0.8175, SDL closed at 80.5, so for the meantime SDL shares are tracking slightly behind or they are a little cheaper entry into the SDL/GBG merger.
> 
> ...




I agree entirely DJ ......i just posted on GBG and this was my point ....although i think you explained it much better!! 
IMHO I think we will see both GBG & SDL SP track relatively closely in the 1:2 ratio for this very reason. I think if we see an announcement from one company (eg. drilling results) and a corresponding movement in SP, this movement will be reflected & tracked fairly closely by the other in that 1:2 ratio. Also I think that any movement in SP due to announcements will most likely be diluted due to buying/selling in both SDL & GBG as a result. Makes sense to me, do others agree?


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## tony montana (24 September 2007)

so without causing to much trouble in the ramping department what would you say the stock price could get too ? i am reading skys the limit and wild ride.....but i havent read anything about stock prices for the future


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## dj_420 (24 September 2007)

tony montana said:


> so without causing to much trouble in the ramping department what would you say the stock price could get too ? i am reading skys the limit and wild ride.....but i havent read anything about stock prices for the future




should be some broker valuations coming on this one soon, the merger will enter GBG into the ASX200 so the exposure to insto's and super funds will be that much greater.

apart from that it would be difficult to call right now, we need BFS on SDL current resource to get a better idea of the bigger picture.


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## dj_420 (24 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> I agree entirely DJ ......i just posted on GBG and this was my point ....although i think you explained it much better!!
> IMHO I think we will see both GBG & SDL SP track relatively closely in the 1:2 ratio for this very reason. I think if we see an announcement from one company (eg. drilling results) and a corresponding movement in SP, this movement will be reflected & tracked fairly closely by the other in that 1:2 ratio. Also I think that any movement in SP due to announcements will most likely be diluted due to buying/selling in both SDL & GBG as a result. Makes sense to me, do others agree?




yes shares will track each other at the 1:2 ratio from here on, expect either GBG or SDL to be bought up or sold down when there is a difference in that ratio.

for now we just have to wait and watch market finish worrying about which side gets the better deal and realise both companies are now going to form a rather formidable force in iron ore.


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## EZZA (24 September 2007)

so wheres the value sdl or gbg, currently holding gbg.

hope gbg holders didn't get short end of the stick.  as where going down as ur going up, any input guys? bit confused.


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## debaron (24 September 2007)

dj_420 said:


> yes shares will track each other at the 1:2 ratio from here on, expect either GBG or SDL to be bought up or sold down when there is a difference in that ratio.
> 
> for now we just have to wait and watch market finish worrying about which side gets the better deal and realise both companies are now going to form a rather formidable force in iron ore.




Sorry nooby question here. How do the shares track at the 1:2 ratio? Are those driven by the everyday volume of the regular investors?
Also, I read alot of people saying this will be a new giant iron ore company etc, does that mean that it has changed into a potential long investment for investors? How will the sp go down in the short term?


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## doctorj (24 September 2007)

debaron said:


> Sorry nooby question here. How do the shares track at the 1:2 ratio?



People on the look out for arbitrage opportunities will keep them approximately in line with the ratio.

Say you have 100,000 SDL FPOs, love the story and are happy to take shares in the combined entity.  Under the arrangement, you'd get 50,000 GBG shares, but you notice the GBG share price fall such that after transaction costs, you could sell your SDL now and buy GBG to get, say 55,000 GBG shares. 

Ofcourse, you've got a motive to take the transaction and doing so will put a downward pressure on SDL shares and an upward pressure on GBG.  Others will do the same until they reach equalibrium (or approximate equalibrium, because transaction costs need to be factored in).


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## Risky Trader (25 September 2007)

Long term thinking..

regarding who will get the short end of the stick? we shouldn't worry too much.. if you are long term holder.. unless you are doing short trade..

Why?

The strategic merger is good for both companies..

GBG coming to production shortly, will generate good profit = capital for reinvestment.. in this case SDL

Problem is GBG have smaller potential compare to SDL .. meaning roughly 20 years of production life with smaller output

In the other hand SDL have richer profile and seem to be longer production life .. 30 years I think and higher output. BUT SDL need capital NOW if they are going to complete the port and rail infrastructure in time for 2011. finger cross no bloody war happening next few years.

_if you stand together the stronger you are_

Which mean both stood to gain from each other and also ensure their bargaining power and production life for a little longer. AND if all goes to plan ,in 5 years when both on full speed... They will have enormous funds to explore and buy smaller miners... Then again that's exactly what BHP RIO and FMG will be doing too.

_Question is, How much is enough for you? Greed is the seed of all downfall_


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## jack06 (25 September 2007)

To be a pain, still not sure how this will work. If you get 1 GBG for every 2 SDL and the two companie's become one, what happens to the shares you hold in each respective company?


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## springhill (25 September 2007)

jack06 said:


> To be a pain, still not sure how this will work. If you get 1 GBG for every 2 SDL and the two companie's become one, what happens to the shares you hold in each respective company?




If u hold only SDL u will be given half the number of those shares in the GBG/SDL merged company, probably to be renamed. For example say they name the company XYZ redsources, if u had 10000 SDL shares u will now have 5000 XYZ shares. If have 10000 GBG shares u will still receive 10000 XYZ shares. This is due to the GBG : SDL   2:1 ratio


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## Out Too Soon (26 September 2007)

I am one of many who have been following GBG for a long time & a part time shareholder. Now waiting for the noise & exuberance to quieten down once again so then I'll get back on. Gindalbie is going to be huge & very profitable but patience is the word. 
    Lucky SDL holders have got the good end of this deal if it gos through as SDL was iffy on infrastructure whereas GBG is the "Full Monty".


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## springhill (26 September 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> I am one of many who have been following GBG for a long time & a part time shareholder. Now waiting for the noise & exuberance to quieten down once again so then I'll get back on. Gindalbie is going to be huge & very profitable but patience is the word.
> Lucky SDL holders have got the good end of this deal if it gos through as SDL was iffy on infrastructure whereas GBG is the "Full Monty".




Just to counter that, the way the WA state Govt is handling this Midwest rail line scenario, GBGs transport issues seem a bit 'iffy' to me aswell OTS. Dont count your chickens when it comes to McTiernan, they are piss weak when it comes to decision making, speaking as a native.
Is it that hard to say get your **** together boys,  build the thing in unison, with the HELP OF THE GOVT seeing as they will pull in billions in royalties! Make access available to all potential clients in the area
As for SDL shareholders being lucky, mate, they will outnumber GBG holders and you needed them just as much as they needed you, or GBG would never agree to the merger. Unless they agreed to it out of the kindness of their hearts


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## Fab (26 September 2007)

springhill said:


> Just to counter that, the way the WA state Govt is handling this Midwest rail line scenario, GBGs transport issues seem a bit 'iffy' to me aswell OTS. Dont count your chickens when it comes to McTiernan, they are piss weak when it comes to decision making, speaking as a native.
> Is it that hard to say get your **** together boys,  build the thing in unison, with the HELP OF THE GOVT seeing as they will pull in billions in royalties! Make access available to all potential clients in the area
> As for SDL shareholders being lucky, mate, they will outnumber GBG holders and you needed them just as much as they needed you, or GBG would never agree to the merger. Unless they agreed to it out of the kindness of their hearts





Both share price are goind down at the moment. My worry is about tax implication if oblige to sell SDL and then buy back into GBG through the merger. That might make the deal less interesting to SDL share holders


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## Djayness (26 September 2007)

What? no both gbg and sdl are going up at the moment, any word on when sdl shareholders will no longer be sdl shareholders? ie, when is it actually merging into one?


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## dj_420 (26 September 2007)

Djayness said:


> What? no both gbg and sdl are going up at the moment, any word on when sdl shareholders will no longer be sdl shareholders? ie, when is it actually merging into one?




there is an ann by both companies today, if you read the presentation you will understand what they intend to do and when.


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## hoppielimp (26 September 2007)

Hey Fab,

Don't think CGT will be an issue unless you sell.  This is a merger, and under the ato guidelines on CGT for takeovers and mergers, we shud be eligible for a scrip to scrip rollover, since we are not receiving any cash and its a straight 1 gbg for 2 sdl shares.

This is what I understand from the ato guidelines...however I'm not a tax expert so...


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## tony montana (26 September 2007)

hey love zn nice job with the tipping comp....if you read the post before yours saying that you will have sdl you will see that i had already tipped them but because i was new to the forum i didnt qualify this is not a sour grapes message just getting my posts  numbers up.

well done


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (27 September 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> Lucky SDL holders have got the good end of this deal if it gos through as SDL was iffy on infrastructure whereas GBG is the "Full Monty".




I would second that also OTS . 

I regularly traded SDL since May last year, can even remember a few occassions when they didn't even have a trade for most of the day.

FWIW can't help but say that SDL Directors were never too shy in handballing each other shares, by the bucketload, along with pissing shareholders money away on pie in the sky offshore tenements, cash wise Mbalm was probably their cheapest punt, whilst being the CAPEX donkey from hell


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## Risky Trader (27 September 2007)

Not sure what really triggering the frenzy buy last 2 days... but I think the SP 300 listing and the merger news must have caught investors with big fat cheque attention.


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## adobee (27 September 2007)

Damn I bought these two weeks ago before heading overseas on holidays just following the big volumes and expecting some positive news now I sit down first time in two weeks and whoa GBG (which is my other main stock) and SDL are looking at merging....


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## grubadoo (27 September 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> Not sure what really triggering the frenzy buy last 2 days... but I think the SP 300 listing and the merger news must have caught investors with big fat cheque attention.




Either that or somebody knows somebody who knows something.
Happy days for all those who are enjoying it.


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## Miner (28 September 2007)

I am speculating there would be some drilling results to be announced.
The people behind merger put a lot of efforts and they have to do something so that the merger gets through the share holder meeting in a happy and softy way.

What else will be there excepting to slowly release fertiliser or the drilling results to keep the tempo up.

Both GBG and SDL are actively recruiting senior staff and that shows they are serious.

Regards


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## golfmos123 (28 September 2007)

You're right - there are some drilling results to come shortly for SDL.  I would think that would put a fire back under the SP if they come back positive (hard to believe they wouldn't given what's happened in the last month or so).

I still think that both GBG and SDL have more rises in store before the end of the year.  If you look at the previous postings on both forums, there has been talk of SDL being $1 before Xmas, and similarly, GBG being $2 by the same time.

There seems to be some thinking that the merger talks will actually be an anchor to both SPs and will prevent them from getting that far along.  But, now that they're tied to the hip at 2:1, it's amazing how the predictions have fallen isn't it??????????


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## Djayness (29 September 2007)

When can we expect the merger to go through? At what point will my sdl become gbg and this whole 2:1 ratio thing disappear?


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## AussiePaul72 (29 September 2007)

Djayness said:


> When can we expect the merger to go through? At what point will my sdl become gbg and this whole 2:1 ratio thing disappear?




Djayness, there are a number of processes that need to happen before the merger goes through. 

Key target dates as listed in the Merger Presentation announcement by GBG (26 Sept) are:
* Merger announcement to ASX: 24 Sept 2007
* Scheme booklet: Dec 2007
* Court Meeting for Approval: Mid Feb 2008
* Implementation Date: Feb/Mar 2008


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## AussiePaul72 (29 September 2007)

golfmos123 said:


> You're right - there are some drilling results to come shortly for SDL.  I would think that would put a fire back under the SP if they come back positive (hard to believe they wouldn't given what's happened in the last month or so).
> 
> I still think that both GBG and SDL have more rises in store before the end of the year.  If you look at the previous postings on both forums, there has been talk of SDL being $1 before Xmas, and similarly, GBG being $2 by the same time.
> 
> There seems to be some thinking that the merger talks will actually be an anchor to both SPs and will prevent them from getting that far along.  But, now that they're tied to the hip at 2:1, it's amazing how the predictions have fallen isn't it??????????




Hey Golfmos, i think we saw a minor drawback in SP of GBG after the announcement as people got the head around and understood exactly what the terms were and what it meant for both GBG & SDL. In my opinion i think the dust is settling now and the respective SP are moving forward.
For a long time i thought it was pie in the sky type stuff that SDL would hit $1 by end of year, however, thought that is was quite possible GBG might get to the $2 level. IMHO, now i would not be surprised at all to see SDL hit $1 and GBG consequently $2 ...... further announcements, whether they relate to SDL or GBG, will benefit the SP of both entities. I agree that the drilling results for SDL for their potentially huge Mbalam project could be the trigger for rapid SP movement ........but then again what do i know?? My opinion only ....DYOR


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## Peakey (29 September 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> Hey Golfmos, i think we saw a minor drawback in SP of GBG after the announcement as people got the head around and understood exactly what the terms were and what it meant for both GBG & SDL. In my opinion i think the dust is settling now and the respective SP are moving forward.
> For a long time i thought it was pie in the sky type stuff that SDL would hit $1 by end of year, however, thought that is was quite possible GBG might get to the $2 level. IMHO, now i would not be surprised at all to see SDL hit $1 and GBG consequently $2 ...... further announcements, whether they relate to SDL or GBG, will benefit the SP of both entities. I agree that the drilling results for SDL for their potentially huge Mbalam project could be the trigger for rapid SP movement ........but then again what do i know?? My opinion only ....DYOR




Hi AussiePaul,

I agree with everything you said. 

I mean seriously, are GBG gonna buy into the SDL story, offer 2 for 1 shares without having done a bit of 'research'   into the progress of drilling? I can't wait to see what these drill results look like. They must be sitting on an absolute truckload of IO for all these events to unfold....... however we'll have to wait and see what santa has in his sack when the results are published.

Look back to April/May through the SDL thread and you'll see my T/A comments and charts posts.

The way the past 6 months have unfolded reminds me of what Stan Weinstein highlights in his book 'Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets', the fact that the evidence of something big was brewing earlier in the year. 

Hope you're all enjoying the SDL ride so far and may the ride continue for a lot longer.

Cheers 
Peakey


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## vjindal (4 October 2007)

Guys, any idea when are they going to announce the drilling results. Can anyone suggest price targets for next 1 year.


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## Djayness (5 October 2007)

Well I got pretty owned on the stockmarket today but I'm definitely going to be watching my sdl shares closely, its the only hope I've got, well that and bhp


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## Risky Trader (5 October 2007)

Regarding, when the drilling results due, your guess is as good as anyone else. BUT rest asure that it won't far away.. Few things to keep in mind for this month

The US subprime mortgage issues resurface again, market going through another adjustment (not as big as August) but nevertheless will effect the market somewhat.

Rugby World  Cup, like it or not, there will be some big executives that hold the cheque book away at france so no big business deals...

May be SDL holding up the drilling results until the recent subprime mortgage storm eases. This way when the result is eventually released the impact will be significant.

OR finger cross NOT,, the result is not as spectacular as one hoped. Releasing the result now would mean SP will plunge so by releasing it later might soften the SP plunge.

BUT having said all that... I am betting it's good news .. based on last 6 months data and results.


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## AussiePaul72 (5 October 2007)

Please correct me somebody if i am wrong but we have been waiting for quite a while for sample results ......

From my quick research i've gone back to the 'Chairman Site Visit Updates' announcement on July 20 where the following information was revealed by Don Lewis (Managing Director):

"......have completed initial surface mapping of hematite mineralisation and received first assay results from this sampling. These surface *sample results are very encouraging* and will be reported to the market shortly"

"Wallis Drilling have mobilised the first two drilling rigs to site and drilling has commenced near the southern extent of the visible surface mineralisation. First core samples have been prepared and despatched to SGS laboritories in South Africa for analysis"

I think i am right in saying that none of the above has been reported to the ASX yet! (please correct me if i'm wrong)

I'm sure the SDL board have had quite a lot on their plate leading up to the merger announcement and also a lot of behind the scenes processes in preparation for meeting key dates leading up to the actual merge of SDL/GBG.

Anybody know how long it typically takes to get results back from labs such as SGS Laboratories in South Africa?? Surely these results will be reported VERY soon ....... what do others think??

ps. It is like watching two synchronised swimmers performing in harmony ......lol ...... the GBG/SDL share price!! 

pps. I'm holding both and am looking forward to the future


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## nikki (5 October 2007)

we are expecting an end of quarter report in october. 

the surface sampling data were published in the last quarter results rather than as a separate annoucement to the ASX. the report did nothing for the sp.

i doubt that the drilling results will do much for sp. i think the holes they have been working on are guaranteed to be good with high fe. i.e. any result would not do much for me in terms of becoming more bullish.

i would like to see drilling and results from other holes in areas that would give us a better size of the resource.

the geologists who visited cameroon must have been very pleased with what they saw. also, i doubt that the gbg board would have agreed to the merger without a good sense of what was available in sdl - however, the break fee of $15 million might be there to deal with this issue.

i think the drop in sp in the past few days is profit taking ahead of a possible down-turn in the resources sector and xao index.


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## AussiePaul72 (5 October 2007)

nikki said:


> we are expecting an end of quarter report in october.
> 
> the surface sampling data were published in the last quarter results rather than as a separate annoucement to the ASX. the report did nothing for the sp.
> 
> ...




Nikki, thanks for the heads up on the surface sampling data.

By the way, what is your reasoning behind thinking there will be a possible down-turn  in the resources sector and xao in general?


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## Miner (7 October 2007)

I hope to be wrong what I am saying in next paragraph.  I am counting on chickens when my  small investment on SDL eggs are getting hatched.

The substantial price fall in SDL from the top 85 cents in last two days probably indicating the drilling result albeit not so good. The support level does not appear to be good. Of course the market in general has taken down turn. In spite of DJ index rose high on Friday evening probably on MOnday ASX index  will sag a bit leading by BHP due to its defeat in Federal Court on the railway issue.

The effect of merger SDL/GBG will be about four months away and until then there will be more speculation with little trigger effect on drillng results.
Proably the resistance level will be at 72 cents. chartists please share your observation as you always do with plus and minus sides of SDL / GBG saga. 


Let us hope for the best

Regards


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## nikki (8 October 2007)

AussiePaul72 said:


> By the way, what is your reasoning behind thinking there will be a possible down-turn  in the resources sector and xao in general?




Elliot wave theorists were predicting a major correction last friday - i.e. completion of a correction that started earlier this year. the significant upward move by the DJIA and XAO must have impacted their currently held views??? 

The DJIA appears to have resumed its upward trend - confirmed for instance by the DJ transportation average that gained a massive 3.27% confirming the DJIA's strong upward move. so, we need something really big to happen (e.g. a lot of the interest rates on the defunct mortgages will finish their honeymoon periods soon). I assume the 20th anniversary of 1987 will weigh heavily in the minds of traders in the next couple of weeks. 

Having said all that the S&P has gained the most in this quarter in the past 12 out of 13 years so there are lots of positives if you want to draw from history.

see the attachment from BCA re the resources sector.


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## nikki (8 October 2007)

Miner said:


> chartists please share your observation as you always do with plus and minus sides of SDL / GBG saga.




I am not a chartist but GBG resistance appear to be around 1.5. I would work with that in preference to the SDL chart. 

I would not be surprised if the timing of the announcement was to ensure that SDL's SP would stay above .7 by tagging GBG.


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## nikki (8 October 2007)

sorry about the wrong chart above re the potential move of the resources sector in the short term  - i cannot find the one i was looking for!!


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## nikki (8 October 2007)

Miner said:


> The substantial price fall in SDL from the top 85 cents in last two days probably indicating the drilling result albeit not so good. The support level does not appear to be good. Of course the market in general has taken down turn. In spite of DJ index rose high on Friday evening probably on MOnday ASX index  will sag a bit leading by BHP due to its defeat in Federal Court on the railway issue.




look at mgx over the past week - huge drops driven obviously by profit taking. meryll lynch was bullish on mgx as one of the iron ore's to look at. it continues to consolidate even today.

i think the SDL price action is normal consolidation - testing the resolve of buyers and sellers and setting new resistance and support levels. this kind of action is good for medium term holders of the stock. look at its past charts and one sees this kind of natural consolidation in the SP.


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## Risky Trader (10 October 2007)

Anyone knows what is the story with the 4 cents rise today? Did some information leak out?

Cheers


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## Djayness (10 October 2007)

I was just wondering the same thing, it seems that the US market is having an affect on us again, i cant really think of too many other reasons since everything seems to be going up in addition to all the special attention SDL has been getting with this merger.


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## nikki (10 October 2007)

i think the move is a technical bounce which is being helped by the today's strong market and stronger metal prices overnight. i think gbg and mgx in particular hit support levels yesterday so this bounce is buyers comming back in. 

i hope i am wrong and there is some nice announcement comming soon.

i am sure that takeover of MIS has brought some more attention back to the iron sector once again. MIS/MMX will now surpass SDL/GBG and become the second largest iron ore producer listed on the ASX. the MMX presentation re the takeover appears to copy the SDL/GBG presentation style and figures?????????

good luck to all of you hanging in with SDL/GBG


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## Risky Trader (10 October 2007)

By looking at the SP and mkt cap of MIS/MMX and comparing to SDL/GBG...  It seem that SDL/GBG will overtake MIS/MMX when the production start to kick in. I wonder with 2 merger happening in the space of 2 months, will there be more merger of the other smaller producers... It seems to be the trend at the moment.


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## gfresh (10 October 2007)

> Anyone knows what is the story with the 4 cents rise today? Did some information leak out?




I believe there is more on the plate that just the current high metal prices.. 

Some very large 1M+ orders today on the intraday.. somebody knows something   Keep an eye on it..


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## BigJohnny (10 October 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> Anyone knows what is the story with the 4 cents rise today? Did some information leak out?
> 
> Cheers




The move with SDL going forward should mirror GBG, due to takeover arbitrage. SDL should keep roughly in line with GBG by a factor of 2, within the 0.5-1c range. So that if SDL is cheaper by 2c, you could short sell 1 GBG and buy 2 SDL, wait til merger is approved and match off the stocks. Also depends what probability u place on merger approval.


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## adobee (11 October 2007)

From the trend in buying and amounts yesterday I would expect something to be forth coming.. Similar patters and quantities in the past following someones slip of the tongue.. I sold out GBG however still holding SDL for this reason..


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## AussiePaul72 (11 October 2007)

adobee said:


> From the trend in buying and amounts yesterday I would expect something to be forth coming.. Similar patters and quantities in the past following someones slip of the tongue.. I sold out GBG however still holding SDL for this reason..




Well sooner or later the announcement will be forthcoming .... the very long waiting period doesn't seem to be doing anything for share holders confidence ...including my own ....
IMHO i still think it will be good news but the long waiting period finally got to me aswell (feeling a bit over exposed) and i sold out of SDL yesterday and did very nicely .....and just holding GBG now!


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## nikki (11 October 2007)

one thing i have noticed with the management is that they allow for some natural consolidation in the SP before making significant announcements. I saw today's share price and candle stick as indicating indecision - a balance between selling and buying. based on what they have done in the past this gives me reason to think that management will do something soon to renew confidence in the stock.

not sure if i am correct but their recent announcements in relation to the takeover came when the SP had peaked (at around 0.5) and was turning downwards on most technical analysis that i was looking at. i.e. MACD divergences for instance were great but the stochastics had turned around to overbought.

for some reason a lot of the announcements come around the middle of the month.

if i was managing a company I am not sure if i would want to release good announcements when markets are peaking. i.e. all markets are now peaking with the exception of the FTSE. this spells trouble to me and reason to consider selling at good peaks rather than keeping for long term. so, why make announcements that might bring in sellers.

AussiePaul, why would you keep you GBG instead of SDL shares - unless it is for tax reasons?


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## Risky Trader (12 October 2007)

I agree with AussiePaul, I had thought about bailing out on SDL just because, the waiting game has become a bit nerve wracking BUT I thought I give it till end of the week, since SDL have been kind to me last few months.. It would silly to throw in the tower now after 3 months waiting.... Good or bad, will ride out this annoucment anyway..

Anyone onto CHM ... it has been great stuff last few week...

Anyone know more about this particular stock.... beside it's coming out of administration....


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## nikki (12 October 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> I agree with AussiePaul, I had thought about bailing out on SDL just because, the waiting game has become a bit nerve wracking BUT I thought I give it till end of the week, since SDL have been kind to me last few months.. It would silly to throw in the tower now after 3 months waiting.... Good or bad, will ride out this annoucment anyway..




what da!! loyalty!! FMG has made 55000% in the past several years. i was thinking that 800+% for sdl is too much in one year and probably will not do much more.

then i thought about the crew they are using in cameroon to do their prefeasibility, etc. and got greedy with the imagery that was building in mind - could i be one of the few who holds on through all the volatility (including a crash next week). loyalty!!! stupidity!!! greedy!!! not knowing enough to make the make the right moves.

i am holding on but simply because i would have to give much of my gains to the federal government...........


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## ta2693 (12 October 2007)

Why SDL in trading halt? I check the etrade and got something I feel very confusing? Does SDL have oil asset?


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## grubadoo (12 October 2007)

Did everyone get excited? Incorrect ASX code was posted.SEA and SDL are completely different companies.


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## Piggy Bank (12 October 2007)

Exactly one month since my last SDL post.  I am still holding onto the stock...watching news, announcements and price movements carefully....not planning to sell until at least May 2008 to minimise capital gains tax liabilities but also hoping SDL will further blossom into a much more profitable longer term stock.

I know we are all still waiting for some drill results that heads in a positive direction towards a JORC-code compliant resource of >1 billion tones Fe.  The question has been when this "expected" positive news will be released?  Will it be before the "Investor Iron Ore Series in Sydney 16th October 2007" or before the "Mines and Money Conference in London 22 November 2007" or ever later?

Some promising interim news appears in a Broker Report by BBY Limited dated 26 September 2007 (post merger announcement) that has been posted on the SDL Website today. 

(http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00222_BBY_Brokers_Report_26_Sept_07.pdf.)  

Recommends BUY with a conservative 12 month price target of $1.  The report body suggests the share price projection has been reached using a conservative methodology.  It has also not fully taken into account the benefits of the SDL/GBG merger coming into fruition.  Have a read of the analysis and look at the share price projection graphs over time.  I am optimistic that a 12 month $1 price target is being "very" conservative!


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## AussiePaul72 (12 October 2007)

nikki said:


> AussiePaul, why would you keep you GBG instead of SDL shares - unless it is for tax reasons?




Hi Nikki ....... only reason is that i got in relatively early and have done very well on SDL and after feeling a bit over-exposed decided to unload and reap the SDL rewards. I'm holding onto GBG where i got on the train much later and in fact am still behind at this point  
Does that make sense??


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## nikki (13 October 2007)

thanks piggy bank - good report and pleased to hear you are still holding on like me!! liked your thoughts re when they might release data!

i agree about long term prospects - i got tired of trying to beat SDL management in terms of SP movement. i.e. buying and selling and trying to predict when the next more up would be. 

i guess consolidation time is really good for a stock because it gets rid of profit-takers and creates new support price for the stock that is more solid than if it took off without tracks!!!

AussiePaul - i would have thought that selling GBG with a loss would have given you a capital loss against your tax claims for the year. now you are in loss because of the tax you have to pay on sdl and losing on gbg because i assume you bought like many when it opened after going off the recent trading halts!!!


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## AussiePaul72 (13 October 2007)

nikki said:


> AussiePaul - i would have thought that selling GBG with a loss would have given you a capital loss against your tax claims for the year. now you are in loss because of the tax you have to pay on sdl and losing on gbg because i assume you bought like many when it opened after going off the recent trading halts!!!




Hi Nikki - very good point about the tax implications, i should have done exactly what you said........oh well thanks for the tip!


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## greenfs (13 October 2007)

Thanks Piggy Bank

Your report yesterday with the accompanying broker read is IMHO probably the most imformative post that I have seen to date on this Forum. Congratulation & keep up the good work.

For me it has confirmed that my resolution never to sell GBG is totally founded. I will continue to seek opportunities to top up on this holding as I will also continue to do with AED, my other current favourite stock


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## nikki (13 October 2007)

greenfs said:


> Thanks Piggy Bank
> 
> Your report yesterday with the accompanying broker read is IMHO probably the most imformative post that I have seen to date on this Forum. Congratulation & keep up the good work.
> 
> For me it has confirmed that my resolution never to sell GBG is totally founded. I will continue to seek opportunities to top up on this holding as I will also continue to do with AED, my other current favourite stock




hey greenfs - you are in the wrong thread!!!! does that mean you are giving your vote to the merger

agree with you re the report that Piggy Bank put up. i think it is the most realistic assessment i have seen. has anyone heard of this research firm?


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## Trader Paul (13 October 2007)

Hi folks,

SDL ..... will be alert for some positive news/moves,
around 16-17102007 ... 

have a great weekend

  paul




=====


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## greenfs (13 October 2007)

nikki said:


> hey greenfs - you are in the wrong thread!!!! does that mean you are giving your vote to the merger
> 
> agree with you re the report that Piggy Bank put up. i think it is the most realistic assessment i have seen. has anyone heard of this research firm?




The research firm is up there with UBS - that is what makes it so impressive. 

If anyone wants to have a bet regarding the outcome of the merger vote being negative, bring it on. I have will have plenty of real $$$ to say that it will proceed. When you have a common chairman for both entities, it is as good as a done deal.

There is probably a fair argument to suggests that there should NOW only be one thread for SDL & GBG holders from hereon in.


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## hangseng (13 October 2007)

greenfs said:


> When you have a common chairman for both entities, it is as good as a done deal.




To Jones credit he has separated himself from this matter. He clearly was a major part of orchestrating this outstanding arrangement but he now has no part in the decision process.

How do I know? I just do.

The shareholders will decide if this is a done deal.


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## Miner (14 October 2007)

MHO is GBG and SDL will merge no matter what minor share holders say.
There have been chunk of votes with the top management.
The economy of scale even the mines are in two different countries is enormous. 
Risk is balanced with the joint venture or merged company though one could argue GBG risks gone up and SDL riks came down following merger.
The merged company would have good say in next year's price negotiation.
Without any emotion rationally the deal will go through.

Regards

MIner


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## Fab (14 October 2007)

What are the chance of a new bidder coming into that race and pushing up the SP price?  I am thinking that still could be an option as SDL on paper is worth more than FMG


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## nikki (14 October 2007)

Fab said:


> What are the chance of a new bidder coming into that race and pushing up the SP price?  I am thinking that still could be an option as SDL on paper is worth more than FMG




Hey Fab, what do you mean SDL is worth more than FMG on paper - do you mean total potential production?


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## Fab (14 October 2007)

nikki said:


> Hey Fab, what do you mean SDL is worth more than FMG on paper - do you mean total potential production?




Yes that's what I meant I think FMG is 25 (not sure the measure) and SDL is 35. I also understand FMG is a more advanced project but then production for SDL is due to start in 2012. I am happy to wait 4 years for the share price of SDL to go from almost $1 to $55 like FMG


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## IOT (14 October 2007)

I think FMG has less than 300million shares on issue whereas sundance has over 1.8 Billion, so you have to take that into scale with your comparisons of share price.

Also I believe FMG is aiming for 40MTPA production starting next year, whereas it will take a long time for SDL/GBG to reach that much - both locations well and truly up and running.

P.S I hold a large amount of both SDL/GBG


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## Fab (14 October 2007)

IOT said:


> I think FMG has less than 300million shares on issue whereas sundance has over 1.8 Billion, so you have to take that into scale with your comparisons of share price.
> 
> Also I believe FMG is aiming for 40MTPA production starting next year, whereas it will take a long time for SDL/GBG to reach that much - both locations well and truly up and running.
> 
> P.S I hold a large amount of both SDL/GBG




Fair comment. What do you mean by a large amount of SDL/GBG? I have 100 000 of SDL and I believe it is a large amount by my standard


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## IOT (14 October 2007)

sorry I guess I meant a "fair" amount which is the same as yourself + GBG

here's hoping to the FMG dream


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## nikki (17 October 2007)

the presentation to the iron ore investor series is on the sundance web page - attached.

nothing new except that SDL has added a few major investors that i did not know about:
Talbot Group Holdings19.9%
Marble Bar Asset Management6.8%
Loxton Investments3.9%
Directors and Management3.7%
Passport Capital2.7%
Sarich Group2.7%
Triangle Resources Fund (AMCI associates)2.7%
Linq Resources1.5%

also, noticed that JP Morgan & Chase has been exiting GBG with large volumes - has shed more than 2% of its holdings in the past few days. they sold around 5 million in the past few days. that explains why gbg/sdl has not gone anywhere compared to other iron ores!!! they have been consistently selling to get those volumes?

worried about them bailing out?


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## nikki (17 October 2007)

what is going on

anyone have any ideas why sdl is getting dumped with high volumes when gbg is now at least 6 cents aways from 2xsdl. 

some big fish must be getting impatient or needs to pay for a diamond ring and they are trying to exist!!


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## Risky Trader (17 October 2007)

Perhaps... They all cashing out to buy into GOLD related stock that are running like hot cake at the moment... namely Greater Bendigo Gold, RAU


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## andres (17 October 2007)

nikki said:


> what is going on
> 
> anyone have any ideas why sdl is getting dumped with high volumes when gbg is now at least 6 cents aways from 2xsdl.
> 
> some big fish must be getting impatient or needs to pay for a diamond ring and they are trying to exist!!




Well, not really. Mostly small bundles that have been triggered by .76 cent stop losses - trend line etc... can come back in an instant.


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## Lachlan6 (19 October 2007)

I have put an order for (SDL) in the market at $0.72. I really like this set up. It is currently in a Wave 4 corrective mode and the $0.71-$0.72 level coincides with a cluster of reversal levels. The 38.2% level is here and also the wave eqaulity for wave c is also here. The thing that really stands out though is the lack of volume in this wave 4, a very good sign!


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## nizar (19 October 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> I have put an order for (SDL) in the market at $0.72. I really like this set up. It is currently in a Wave 4 corrective mode and the $0.71-$0.72 level coincides with a cluster of reversal levels. The 38.2% level is here and also the wave eqaulity for wave c is also here. The thing that really stands out though is the lack of volume in this wave 4, a very good sign!




I agree it looks like a good set up with:

*low volume for the corrective move,
*sp nearing support levels, and
*yesterdays white candle.

BUT if it was me buying I would buy at market. You would hate for the price to do a runner and you missing out (has happened to me before).


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## --B-- (19 October 2007)

hi guys,

Im relatively new to share trading and ive recently bought myself some SDL shares. I noticed the announcement released today about issue of shares and employee options but I dont really know what its all about.

Im hoping some more experienced traders here can give me a brief run down of what its saying and what it means for existing investors?

Cheers in advance!


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## nikki (19 October 2007)

it means that your shares have been further diluted by the company having to exercise options that it is contractually bound to honour. 

i.e. there are people who are now sitting on massive profits because they have just sought to exercise options to own shares in sdl for which they have to only pay 10 cents (or whatever this bunch is worth). 

it also means that it brings an additional amount of money to the company to continue operating. 

hmmmm - i do not mean to sound pissed off but i am


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## --B-- (19 October 2007)

yeah thats what i thought Nikki.

thanks for the response. hopefully this doesnt impact the SP too dramatically..


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## nikki (19 October 2007)

--B-- said:


> yeah thats what i thought Nikki.
> 
> thanks for the response. hopefully this doesnt impact the SP too dramatically..




it usually doesnt unless the beneficiaries need to buy something more precious than sdl shares 

my sarcasm was more about the number of shares on issue so many of which are exercises of options by employees and management.


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## nikki (24 October 2007)

anyone have any ideas why a trading halt.

if it is an annoucement re the merger - which is what GBB's announcement says - then, could it be good 

the only thing i can think of is that SDL's SP moved very quickly this morning after the open - perhaps insiders were buying some!!


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## vjindal (24 October 2007)

Guys,
SDL in trading halt this morning - Any ideas what could be the possible news and when this news will be released to the market.


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## --B-- (24 October 2007)

i was just logging in to ask the same thing nikki...lol..

as im a complete beginner i have no idea. But my first instincts tell me that perhaps its not good news if its an announcement re the merger.


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## mas888moe (24 October 2007)

GBG have a trading halt too. They are both due to announce drilling results. Do you think it could be this?


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## nikki (24 October 2007)

gbg's annoucement says that the halt is about the merger!!

i cannot find anything in the merger documentation that points to now as an important time for anything?


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## wipz (24 October 2007)

--B-- said:


> i was just logging in to ask the same thing nikki...lol..
> 
> as im a complete beginner i have no idea. But my first instincts tell me that perhaps its not good news if its an announcement re the merger.




Why do you think this?? The merger details have not been finalised as yet? This could be the final merger doc.

Cheers


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## --B-- (24 October 2007)

wipz said:


> Why do you think this?? The merger details have not been finalised as yet? This could be the final merger doc.
> 
> Cheers




well as i said it was only my first instincts. im very new to share trading and have no prior experience with such things.

going off the original merger proposal, nothing re: merger was apparently supposed to happen until December.


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## evwatkins (24 October 2007)

lol somome has put a bid for 10,000 shares at $1 hoping for good news or trying to ramp the stock up for more bidders haha


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## serendip (24 October 2007)

--B-- modestly claims to be a beginner in the share trading and investment area, but displays some canny insight into the likely moves afoot re the SDL-GBG merger.

The reaction to the proposal from GBG holders, other than directors common to both companies, has been almost 100% negative.  They don't like the idea of possibly funding a small deposit (by WA standards), in West Africa, a long, long way from the coast.

Could this be a capitulation by the GBG board, responding to their shareholders, and pulling the plug on the merger?


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## nikki (24 October 2007)

serendip said:


> The reaction to the proposal from GBG holders, other than directors common to both companies, has been almost 100% negative.  They don't like the idea of possibly funding a small deposit (by WA standards), in West Africa, a long, long way from the coast.




what!! do you know something about gbg shareholders that we dont?

small deposit - the prefeasibility has yet to be completed. how is it small compared to what gbg itself has???

perhaps the annoucement relates to due diligence completed by gbg; major shareholder approval, etc. who knows?


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## grubadoo (24 October 2007)

Can somebody explain to me why, at the end of trading today GBG Bid price is 1.6 and SDL Bid price is 0.8?  2 for 1 at the starting gates?


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## Djayness (24 October 2007)

First off whats all this talk about gbg not wanting to be involved in something small in WA standards? Have you forgotten that SDL dwarfs GBG in size and projects? 

And there is unlikely to be any talk of the merger not going through since the CEO sits on the boards of both GBG and SDL. I can only speculate whats going to be announced, but lets hope its all good news.


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## the barry (24 October 2007)

grubadoo said:


> Can somebody explain to me why, at the end of trading today GBG Bid price is 1.6 and SDL Bid price is 0.8?  2 for 1 at the starting gates?




In the outline proposal for the merger between the two companies SDL share holders get 1 GBG share for every 2 SDL shares they own. Hence why the bid price is exactly double.


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## Miner (24 October 2007)

If we follow the down trend share price of both GBG and SDL tells some negative vibe.
At one time when the world was sagging then there was a heavy trading to hold SDL at above 40 cents.
Now teh volume of trade is significantly lower.
Normally we have seen the share prices rose very high before a good announcement.
Probably the announcement will be getting a bad drilling result as some one has already hinted.
Let us see

Regards


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## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

Miner said:


> If we follow the down trend share price of both GBG and SDL tells some negative vibe.
> At one time when the world was sagging then there was a heavy trading to hold SDL at above 40 cents.
> Now teh volume of trade is significantly lower.
> Normally we have seen the share prices rose very high before a good announcement.
> ...




Not quite like that, sometimes good news comes out to stop the SP drops further.

I think there is good news coming out. maybe a better offer from GBG ????


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## serendip (25 October 2007)

Nikki and Djayness, we all hope that Mbalan will ultimately prove to be a large deposit.  However, at the moment, the stated estimate is 800 million tonnes.  As I pointed out, this is not large by WA standards, with half-a-dozen companies having deposits of that scale or larger.  As well as RIO, BHP and Fortescue, there is CITIC Pacific, Cape Lambert, Australasian Resources, not to mention GBG, all with reserves well over the billion tonne mark.   

You asked about GBG's current position.  The latest published figure for the Karara deposit is 1.4 B tonnes, with Lodestone described as "slightly smaller".    In the light of these facts, is it really reasonable to claim that "SDL dwarfs GBG in size and projects"?

As far as the sentiments of GBG holders are concerned, I don't profess any deep insight into their psyche.  But the simple truth is that opinions expressed in the various forums are running overwhelmingly against the merger.  

Cheers,  Serendip


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## wipz (25 October 2007)

Announcement out today

*GINDALBIE AND SUNDANCE AGREE NOT TO PROCEED WITH MERGER*

Why oh why?, hope the share price holds strong!


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## sleeper88 (25 October 2007)

serendip said:


> Nikki and Djayness, we all hope that Mbalan will ultimately prove to be a large deposit.  However, at the moment, the stated estimate is 800 million tonnes.  As I pointed out, this is not large by WA standards, with half-a-dozen companies having deposits of that scale or larger.  As well as RIO, BHP and Fortescue, there is CITIC Pacific, Cape Lambert, Australasian Resources, not to mention GBG, all with reserves well over the billion tonne mark.
> 
> You asked about GBG's current position.  The latest published figure for the Karara deposit is 1.4 B tonnes, with Lodestone described as "slightly smaller".    In the light of these facts, is it really reasonable to claim that "SDL dwarfs GBG in size and projects"?
> 
> ...




Well..firstly GBG's 1.4B tonnes is MAGNETITE!!!..while SDL's 800m tonnes is HEMATITE!!..BIG difference. 
"SDL dwarfs GBG in size and projects"..i dont think so...SDL is targeting a 35MTPA operation producing hematite ore with a possible resource of +1B tonnes...while GBG is targeting a 2MTPA hematite operation with 27m tonnes..yr 2 maths says this is a BIG difference.


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## Risky Trader (25 October 2007)

Will this mean that the George jones position on either company under scrutiny? Since his Big plan to merge both companies failed. .. Comments???


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## evwatkins (25 October 2007)

can somone explain to me the difference between hematite and magnatite? i am interested to know also tell me which is better and for what reseaon.


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## Risky Trader (25 October 2007)

in SHort and simple term

hematite contain Low FE compare to magnatite.. Meaning less valuable.

Scientific term 

hematite  iron(III) oxide, Fe2O3, 
magnatite iron(II,III) oxide, Fe3O4


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## vjindal (25 October 2007)

Guys, any news why SDL has sold down heavily in pre market trading..Can sell sellers lined up to sell for as low as 40


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## Herms (25 October 2007)

Looking at the market depth right now, there are so many sellers at 0.4 - 0.7! Wondering where would the market consolidate 

Far out!!


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## evwatkins (25 October 2007)

thanks Risky, ok that makes sence so deposits that are magnatite are more preffered.

this is good to know


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## serendip (25 October 2007)

Sleeper, we are all aware of the difference between hematite and magnetite, and the difference in iron content of the Karara and Mbalam ore bodies means that they are of approximately equal size.  One does not "dwarf" the other, to use Djayness's term.  The points of apparent concern expressed by GBG holders were primarily the sovereign risk factors inherent in a project located in West Africa, the large distance from the coast, and the high capex associated with the project (about three times the cost of Karara).

As I suggested yesterday, the resulting shareholder pressure appears to have been the deciding factor in terminating the merger proposal.

Time for both companies to move on.

Cheers,  Serendip


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## Risky Trader (25 October 2007)

Serendip is right... Time to move on....

The good thing is that there are plenty of intetest to buy SDL at the market... I suppose bargain hunter out in force to purchase good future stock...

Mind you there is still the drilling results due for SDL.... Lets hope that one actually a good news...


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## Djayness (25 October 2007)

Yes, I admit I was incorrect as the reserves show that GBG is clearly bigger. Moving on though, when the shareprice dived 25%, almost had a heart attack. I wonder if SDL will continue its growth trend that we saw pre-merger. 

A release of some very positive drilling results would go a long way in terms of SP atm. Are you guys going to hold?


I personally have no choice, I am not ready to cut my losses and sell, this goes onto my long list of "future" prospects.


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## wipz (25 October 2007)

I closed out my position thismorning at 66c. However am looking for a cheap entry around the mid to high 50s


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## Risky Trader (25 October 2007)

Djayness said:


> Yes, I admit I was incorrect as the reserves show that GBG is clearly bigger. Moving on though, when the shareprice dived 25%, almost had a heart attack. I wonder if SDL will continue its growth trend that we saw pre-merger.
> 
> A release of some very positive drilling results would go a long way in terms of SP atm. Are you guys going to hold?
> 
> ...




Same.. can't afford to cut loss now... beside ... fundamentally it's still a good stock... It may not be the size of Fortescue but.. it should have enough to hold it's own balls .... still have high hope it will get close to $1 by the end of the year, IF the drilling results is encouraging....


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## tony montana (25 October 2007)

I suppose its not all bad....just wish I had some spare money to buy some cheap...just going to take longer than we thought....who needs GBG their holders did nothing but bag SDL....I am in for the long haul.


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## Risky Trader (25 October 2007)

Good to know the general support still there... I guess all SDL need now is a positive drilling results and some rich asian .. to invest some serious Money to speed up mines development.......


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## Piggy Bank (25 October 2007)

My question is whether this "mutual" agreement to not procede with the merger has triggered the $15 million break free set out in the MIA?  Will GBG be entitled to this cash from SDL and therefore bleed from us much needed capital?  Will await an annoucement...


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## Nibbo (25 October 2007)

This was the last trade my broker did for me at 0.857 .... I am worried now, why did GBG power on and SDL shoot down. All I can do now is wait


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## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

I am also a SDL holder but I think we need to be more realistic here???

Do you think SDL can be back up again to mid .70 by itself without the merger ??? Looking back to the chart, its highest was about .55 then shot up when merger rumour around???

I am still holding it but my concern is in the next couple of days, there will be ann. about big boys cease to be substantial holder??? then it will drop back to below .50????

crossing my figures for the luck???

sorry if my post did any damage to you /????

cheers


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## Djayness (25 October 2007)

So how did JP know that it should sell up? I mean what did JP know that we didnt, they litterally got out last minute and all of us sat about and got screwed. Looks a bit fishy if you ask me. There weren't any absolute signs that the merger was not going to go through, i mean the CEO was the head of both companies. I wonder if the CEO was selling up his stock on the 24th.


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## nikki (25 October 2007)

with SP dropping for both sdl and gbg we all assumed it was results resulted. I assumed JP was one of the unsatisfied shareholders who decided to bail - who cares, they lost anyway.

i think as bad as today looked, it established good support for sdl. its candle is actually bullish and we will hopefully see a move upwards to about 0.67-0.69 and will resist 0.7 without results, etc. important to remember that the stock consolidated for a while between 0.7-0.8 which means that it is going to resist retesting 0.6 unless more people get fearful of holding onto the stock - cannot figure out how many sdl shares traded at that price range.

it established support at 0.59-0.6 with serious downward pressure on its sp. 

the buying at the end of the day was very strong with high volumes. the only downside is that with a price range in the 0.6 and very high liquidity it is much more likely to be a day-traders stock. hopefully with the next quarters report due out any day the sp might develop some momentum and cross 0.7.

both the fast and slow stochastic on the stock is giving me buy signals but unfortunately i have no cash left!!!!

sdl's costs of producing and shipping it resource are excellent. this means that overall it will have more money to play with. since sdl has hematite it is less expensive to ship and is of higher purity - for instance, ADY incurs a lot of additional costs reprocessing its magnetite to get extra purity from it before it is shipped, etc. etc. etc.

the new additions to its board and management team will give it more expertise. 

talbot as biggest shareholder is unlikely to sell or buy - he already has the max he can have without officially being classed as a take-over buyer. he bought the extra after his visit to cameroon and was obviously impressed with the project. however, i noticed that sdl has had a number of new major shareholders in the past few months and i suspect it might have added some more today with such high volumes being traded!!!

sdl will not incur a $15 million break fee b/c the terms of their agreement allows for a mutual break and someone on another chat-room i was in made a phone call to the company who apparently confirmed this.

so overall, i am a long term holder and have no plans to sell and will happily sit through this and lots of other volatile movements in its sale price. 

i am sure that there are lots of other good iron ore or other mining stories out there and i am in no way suggesting that this is a terrific stock but i think it will continue to outperform the market over the years to come - with lots of vitality in its SP.


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## roland (25 October 2007)

nikki said:


> with SP dropping for both sdl and gbg we all assumed it was results resulted. I assumed JP was one of the unsatisfied shareholders who decided to bail - who cares, they lost anyway.
> 
> i think as bad as today looked, it established good support for sdl. its candle is actually bullish and we will hopefully see a move upwards to about 0.67-0.69 and will resist 0.7 without results, etc. important to remember that the stock consolidated for a while between 0.7-0.8 which means that it is going to resist retesting 0.6 unless more people get fearful of holding onto the stock - cannot figure out how many sdl shares traded at that price range.
> 
> ...




Hi nikki, I am in agreement. In fact I tried to pick up some more today, but just missed the boat on my target. I think the GBG forum put a bit of a damper on everything to do with SDL. I'm holding - still a good story with SDL


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## nikki (25 October 2007)

roland said:


> I think the GBG forum put a bit of a damper on everything to do with SDL. I'm holding - still a good story with SDL




absolutely - the african factor with sdl was always costed into the sp of the stock. gbg stock holders would not have been comfortable with that aspect of the stock.

also, the volume of sdl stocks on offer is also always costed into its price. gbg stockholders would also not have been comfortable with that.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (25 October 2007)

Risky Trader said:


> in SHort and simple term
> 
> hematite contain Low FE compare to magnatite.. Meaning less valuable.
> 
> ...





Its the opposite buddy, in fact mines such as whaleback actually blend a bit into the mix cause there hematite has such a high iron content, not to mention post crushing beneficiation even scabs up the scraps from the top end open pit mines that we have at Nameless and Whaleback here in WA.

From memory decent hematite is in the top end of the 60 percent range for Fe content, Magnetite is in the 40's. The vast majority of asian smelters can process raw lump hematite, magnetite depending on FE and impurity content needs value adding for efficient/economic smelting.

Although not sure, until now I think we have just raped our hematite deposits through out west oz post the Jap boom, magnetite deposits have never been considered and put bluntly half of the north west is full of the crap


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## kransky (26 October 2007)

Seems SDL has a market cap of $1.14Bn based on the Mbalam Iron Ore Project in Cameroon which is based on exploration done by the UNDF in the 70's and 80's which consisted of surface samples and trenching.

To this day they don't have a single drilling result.

Do i have this right?

Dont get me wrong i think there is great potential for this company to do very well based on direct shipping 35Mt of iron per year (assuming its there) but isnt it a little early for them to be worth 1.14Bn based on trenching and surface samples?

????


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## andres (26 October 2007)

Things are now starting to add up.

1. Anyone who reads these boards knows that Gindalbie shareholders have been up in arms and noisy about their dislike of it. Their profile is very different to SDL holders - and that is ok.
2. While GJ can see and smell FE everywhere (he must have had a case to put it to the Gindalbie Board), the independent valuer may not be able to quantify to the point of calling it a 2:1 share deal. Makes sense. So on that basis, you would call it off early rather than later as both shareholders have been unhappy.
3. No $15 million penalty is payable - confirmed by Gindalbie, market needs to be informed of this now GJ!
4. Appears from other inmates discussions with Sundance management, that integrity of Mbalam is not in question - it is just too early for this sort of deal to be struck. Bad move but at least being salvaged.
5. It is still early in the drill program - 2 months to go, so that wouldn't help the valuer.

I am now thinking that we are reading too much into this being a negative implication for Mbalam project. I also expect the Quaterley to be a steady as she goes report. 

Maybe this is more about the washout from trying to tie two companies different objective driven shareholders and cash flow/risk profiles together.

But to put it in the table, in the first place, you would think that the merits of each company's prospects are very good.

History Lesson. Stopped out of Oxiana at .78 despite a friend telling me not to worry as the "plenty copper in them hills" will not go away.

60 cents is supprt - not a breakdown from a tech point of view.


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## nikki (26 October 2007)

kransky said:


> Seems SDL has a market cap of $1.14Bn based on the Mbalam Iron Ore Project in Cameroon which is based on exploration done by the UNDF in the 70's and 80's which consisted of surface samples and trenching.
> 
> To this day they don't have a single drilling result.
> 
> ...




do your own research. go onto their web page and download their presentations. you will see a number of holes were dug, researched and sampled by the UNDP.


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## Bushman (26 October 2007)

evwatkins said:


> thanks Risky, ok that makes sence so deposits that are magnatite are more preffered.
> 
> this is good to know




Err no. Hematite is preferred as it is a much higher grade (55 to 60% FE), can be shipped direct to market without processing etc. 

Magnetite needs to be processed and concentrated before it is shipped. Hence you need high volumes for economies of scale.


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## adobee (26 October 2007)

Can someone please alert me when they think that SDL again becomes value or is hitting its bottom.. I am pleased to have sold just after merger announcement but am also pleased to stick my profits back in again..


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## serendip (26 October 2007)

The current plunge in the share price is showing little sign of abating.  With around 3% of the shares in the company changing hands today (so far), it is clear that a significant number of holders view the failure of the merger as a serious setback.  The change in the price relative to GBG is even worse, suggesting that any hypothetical future merger would be on much less advantageous terms, perhaps more like four SDL for one GBG.  

This is not to suggest that such a revised arrangement is likely; rather, that there is an implicit market valuation being placed on the company (one which is much lower than we would like), which would probably be taken as a guide in any financing proposals for the project.  We need to be prepared for some belt-tightening in the immediate future.

Regards,  Serendip


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## --B-- (26 October 2007)

I notice SDL has released their quarterly activities report.

Can any of the experts here give their opinions on this?

Cheers.


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## Djayness (26 October 2007)

This is getting bad, the SP is going even lower than the initial pre-merger price, something that I obviously cannot understand. The flurry of announcements could not stop the SP from falling again and I personally have not had time to analyze the cash flow report, which I assume would not be great seeing as the only cash inflow is shareholder capital.

Before the merger things looked alot better, shareholder confidence needs to be boosted. I think what we need is some good drill results. How much longer are they going to keep us waiting?!


----------



## --B-- (26 October 2007)

corrent me if im wrong Djayness, but i thought the quarterly activities report released today contains drill results?


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## grubadoo (26 October 2007)

Activities report does includes drill results.Is there something else I am missing here. This is only the first page.


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## --B-- (26 October 2007)

The report on the commsec site has all the pages.

I tried to attach it to this post but apparently it exceeds the size limit!!


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## EZZA (26 October 2007)

looked oversold to me, i jumped in at 50.5cents.

looks like panic has set in, i'm thinking some panic sellers will try and find an entry point next week.  Right now i'm relatively happy with this pickup.


----------



## mayk (26 October 2007)

I hope it finds support at .5 otherwise it will be a big loss for me. I was lucky I had some shares in GBG as well, so the total loss does not seem large enough, but still I have lost close to 40% on this share Well looks like it is a stock for my grandchildren then 

But I am quite satisfied with the project and its potential. I think this is really a good fundamental stock. I do not have enough money to add more of this stock to my profile, but I will definately buy it at these levels when I will free up some cash elsewhere.


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## Djayness (26 October 2007)

--B-- said:


> corrent me if im wrong Djayness, but i thought the quarterly activities report released today contains drill results?




Haha and correct me if im wrong, but i mentioned i hadnt had time to read it. Well i guess those drill results didnt do much for sundance, even though looking through them now, they seem quite good. 60% of FE concentration is considered good and thats what they have in most parts.


----------



## serendip (26 October 2007)

The results shown in the report are a woeful effort, considering the time it has taken.  The number of holes drilled is very low, and, more puzzling, the results quoted do not go to any depth.  Surely the orebody has been drilled to more than 40 metres, yet that is all the report seems to be talking about.  "Supergene enrichment", which usually means that the near-surface zone has been increased in grade by material washed down from eroded rock above, gets some focus, but what we really want to know is: What is the grade from, say, 50 metres depth to 500 metres?

Quite frankly, these results are just an uninformative embarrassment.


----------



## roland (26 October 2007)

Sorry, but I just had to sell, I saved myself another $0.03 but really disappointed with taking a big hit on SDL. Sort of feel stupid for not bailing earlier. The post merger PR on this was woeful in my opinion and didn't give me any confidence to hold.


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## RP_Automotive (27 October 2007)

Maybee the drill results that came out yesturday we're just to 'soothe the blow' of the merger not going ahead - and the full results will come out over the next few days, weeks, months??


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## kransky (27 October 2007)

The ann says that more drilling results will come in the Dec quarter activities report... due in 3 months time.

2 new drill rigs to arrive in the Dec quarter also.


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## nikki (27 October 2007)

serendip said:


> The results shown in the report are a woeful effort, considering the time it has taken.  The number of holes drilled is very low, and, more puzzling, the results quoted do not go to any depth.  Surely the orebody has been drilled to more than 40 metres, yet that is all the report seems to be talking about.  "Supergene enrichment", which usually means that the near-surface zone has been increased in grade by material washed down from eroded rock above, gets some focus, but what we really want to know is: What is the grade from, say, 50 metres depth to 500 metres?
> 
> Quite frankly, these results are just an uninformative embarrassment.




i read their results as: we had difficulty drilling because of the contours of the land so we did the edges which should  be the easiest but lower volumes of fe!!

look at these drill results from YML which has given them an estimate of 43 mt:
-25m @ 59.2% Fe in MRC040
-27m @ 58.8% Fe in MRC041
-29m @ 58.2% Fe in MRC053
• Additional drilling to the south-east of the North-West Sector has confirmed
mineralisation at “Rockhole Bore” with significant intercepts including:
-24m @ 54.8% Fe in MRC091
-12m @ 56.5% Fe in MRC098
-8m @ 55.8% Fe in MRC101

so, i am still bullish in the long term about the resource that is there but pretty pissed off in the short term about the terrible management of this merger.

in fact, i am thinking of dumping my stock as a protest but then i doubt that anyone might notice given the 72million that can through in one day 

i might send the management some abusive emails and see if they will give me one of the many 1million+ options that they seem to be giving out to millions of people!!!


----------



## greggy (27 October 2007)

nikki said:


> i read their results as: we had difficulty drilling because of the contours of the land so we did the edges which should  be the easiest but lower volumes of fe!!
> 
> look at these drill results from YML which has given them an estimate of 43 mt:
> -25m @ 59.2% Fe in MRC040
> ...




May be its just a case of profit taking going on. SDL was a hot stock and many traders jumped on for the ride. This has been the case with many iron ore stocks.  IMO until SDL starts making a profit (this is still fairly far away) it should still be considered a speculative stock. This also applies to many other iron ore explorers, most of which have been performing strongly of late. But as we've seen with other resource sectors, sentiment can quickly change.  Uranium is a pretty good example.  While many fortunes have been made, sentiment quickly turned extremely bearish in this sector. Many traders are now sitting on losses. 
DYOR


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## adobee (29 October 2007)

We'll I am back in SDL this morning, I feel that the confirmation of no $15mill break cost will inspire some confidence here, and that it has been a bit oversold with the worry of this risk..


----------



## Risky Trader (29 October 2007)

DOes anyone out there still have the confidence that SDL will bounce back to .70 by end of the year? 

Cheers


----------



## insidetrader (29 October 2007)

Depends on what the BFS says...it's due out in december apparently...good news could send this one back to 70c or even beyond...


----------



## Nibbo (29 October 2007)

I have stock with a broker and wanted to sell on Friday. I was told to hold on as the good news is coming. This obviously is the brokers point of view but he would have been happy as my holding is a good size. I am in for the medium term


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## dj_420 (29 October 2007)

insidetrader said:


> Depends on what the BFS says...it's due out in december apparently...good news could send this one back to 70c or even beyond...




Beyond??? They already have a market cap over 1 billion and are not producing anything. IMO they already have a lot of good news factored in. 

With 1.965 billion shares on issue fully diluted any further cap raising is going to add significant dilution. I have seen people speculate prices of $1 plus, which as current shares would put them at close to 2 billion dollar market cap....with no production until 2010.

You could quite easily do an estimate of future expected earnings versus market cap, in which case the PE would be blown sky high.

IMO we are beginning to see some crazy valuations put forward for companies that are not producing for a number of years yet.

Very similar to the uranium boom, iron ore is starting to feel very toppy and IMO ppl are better off searching and identifying the next big thing.

I might also add that even with all those options been converted will only bring in $13 million or so, very insignificant compared to cap expenditure needed to get resource into production.


----------



## adobee (29 October 2007)

dj_420 said:


> Beyond??? They already have a market cap over 1 billion and are not producing anything. IMO they already have a lot of good news factored in.
> 
> With 1.965 billion shares on issue fully diluted any further cap raising is going to add significant dilution. I have seen people speculate prices of $1 plus, which as current shares would put them at close to 2 billion dollar market cap....with no production until 2010.
> 
> ...




Thats being said this stock has a big following and every man and their dog talking about it or spruiking it. It doesnt take much in the way of a good announcement to do with an amount of iron in the ground or great grades for it to sky rocket for the day. I think my ebet shares would skyrocket if they changed the name to eiron and said that they had big reserves in there second life mines...


----------



## nikki (29 October 2007)

dj_420 said:


> Beyond??? They already have a market cap over 1 billion and are not producing anything. IMO they already have a lot of good news factored in.
> 
> With 1.965 billion shares on issue fully diluted any further cap raising is going to add significant dilution. I have seen people speculate prices of $1 plus, which as current shares would put them at close to 2 billion dollar market cap....with no production until 2010.
> 
> ...




commmooooonnnnnn - offer something new if you are trying to build negative sentiments re SDL.

there are many ways a company can deal with high liquidity - ADY is about to reduce total shares by offering 2.4.... for 1 shares (or something like that). i.e. will reduce total shares from xxx to yyy. 

what has FMG produced so far? 

are you trying to convince yourself out of not buying into sdl?


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## Miner (29 October 2007)

Dear Nikky
Do not get upset.
WHen we enjoy the sunshine then we need to accept the dark cloud in the sky too. Personally with the disaster of merger I have personally lost faith on SDL management. I will not however compare it with FMG just because it is iron ore. FMG Is managed by Andrew Forest and the number of shares exchange is rather very low compared with volume of shares available with SDL. FMG is in Western Australlia where people can see it and I have personally seen the consignment trucks going through northern high way and also met few of the operators (like Herb Elliot, Andrew, Graeme, Russell, Peter, Chris, Julian, etc ) very closely in few occasions. They are not my friends but very smart people compared with SDL operators. At least FMG is nearing to production but SDL - who knows and who can see it in Africa. 
All they need to invite Charles Atkins from Southern Equity to visit and ramp up like he successfully did for FMG shares.

Regards


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## nikki (30 October 2007)

Miner said:


> Dear Nikky
> Do not get upset.
> WHen we enjoy the sunshine then we need to accept the dark cloud in the sky too. Personally with the disaster of merger I have personally lost faith on SDL management. I will not however compare it with FMG just because it is iron ore. FMG Is managed by Andrew Forest and the number of shares exchange is rather very low compared with volume of shares available with SDL. FMG is in Western Australlia where people can see it and I have personally seen the consignment trucks going through northern high way and also met few of the operators (like Herb Elliot, Andrew, Graeme, Russell, Peter, Chris, Julian, etc ) very closely in few occasions. They are not my friends but very smart people compared with SDL operators. At least FMG is nearing to production but SDL - who knows and who can see it in Africa.
> All they need to invite Charles Atkins from Southern Equity to visit and ramp up like he successfully did for FMG shares.
> ...




far from it - i am not upset! i welcome critical engagement 

i understand the sentiment re sdl not being in Aus but i guess the issue is who cares as long as the sales contracts come through. in fact, i would assume that the cheaper production costs will mean more value for money.

my concern is the rise of the Aus$ - SDL is getting a lot less for what it has in  the bank.

like you i have lost some faith in the management team and am thinking of bailing on that count alone!


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## adobee (30 October 2007)

Miner said:


> Dear Nikky
> Do not get upset.
> WHen we enjoy the sunshine then we need to accept the dark cloud in the sky too. Personally with the disaster of merger I have personally lost faith on SDL management. I will not however compare it with FMG just because it is iron ore. FMG Is managed by Andrew Forest and the number of shares exchange is rather very low compared with volume of shares available with SDL. FMG is in Western Australlia where people can see it and I have personally seen the consignment trucks going through northern high way and also met few of the operators (like Herb Elliot, Andrew, Graeme, Russell, Peter, Chris, Julian, etc ) very closely in few occasions. They are not my friends but very smart people compared with SDL operators. At least FMG is nearing to production but SDL - who knows and who can see it in Africa.
> All they need to invite Charles Atkins from Southern Equity to visit and ramp up like he successfully did for FMG shares.
> ...




Comparing SDL management to Twiggy and saying he is very smart compared to them is not really a fair comment. A large % of people would consider him to be a very smart conman, aside from that ask other people in his previous companies if they think he is smart.. Perhaps compare his past successes and failures to that of the SDL management..

Anyway SDL 63.5c now.. I might just grab my 20% since yesterday morning and bail...


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## dj_420 (30 October 2007)

nikki said:


> commmooooonnnnnn - offer something new if you are trying to build negative sentiments re SDL.
> 
> there are many ways a company can deal with high liquidity - ADY is about to reduce total shares by offering 2.4.... for 1 shares (or something like that). i.e. will reduce total shares from xxx to yyy.
> 
> ...




Lol, no not trying to convince myself to not buy. It would need a lot of convincing for me to buy into SDL at these prices.

A share consolidation doesn't change market cap, so although liquidity will reduce the market cap will stay at these extreme levels.

Just IMO.


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## dj_420 (30 October 2007)

nikki said:


> far from it - i am not upset! i welcome critical engagement
> 
> i understand the sentiment re sdl not being in Aus but i guess the issue is who cares as long as the sales contracts come through. in fact, i would assume that the cheaper production costs will mean more value for money.
> 
> ...




Regarding the capex, was it 2 billion? I cant remember, so either way they are going to need some significant injection of cash, either by proving up resource and selling percentage stake into it or diluting the heck out of the holdings with multiple cap raisings.


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## Risky Trader (6 November 2007)

SDL seems to be running on empty tank here...

Anyone got something to share about this company? 

We need some fresh news... good one hopefully


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## EZZA (6 November 2007)

i sold out at 55.5c about a week ago, just a short term trade for me.
most of my money is in gbg.

at 54 looks like it worth another dip, i've got my cash stashed away else where so will give it a miss for now.


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## Miner (8 November 2007)

Wednesday's Australian has advised to sell Sundane Resources being a useless share and culminating with many problems in Africa now.
Strangely enough SDL is seeking senior level project manager to manage its ghost project too.
Time to get out of this junk - I have been idiotically loyal to this share.

Regards


----------



## Fab (8 November 2007)

Where did you read that? I can't find this story anywhere on the Australian website. I suppose this type of issues happen all the time in project like that.


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## Risky Trader (8 November 2007)

Miner....

If you can post the link to the news please... would be interesting to read. 

Wonder what will happen to the company now? I doubt it will go under.. So does this mean it will have years before it reach $1?

Thanks


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## Miner (9 November 2007)

Risky Trader
I read teh Australian Business (Perth edition) section in the lunch room. No electronic copy was there. Actually the message header was for SDL and ended with Anvil.
It however did mention to Sell SDL.
I have to search it from library now.
The down hill price is proving theshare is dud.

Regards


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## winsol (9 November 2007)

Miner stop trying to talk the price down.  Have a look at http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00230_BBY Brokers Report 26 Oct 07.pdf  dated 26 October and post the merger issues

I'll take an independent brokers perspective anytime over a an article that someone thinks they read in a lunch room that they now can't reproduce which is based on some journos view of the world.

I am quite comfortable with my investment.  Talbot and Jones are experienced and well known as successful.  now is a time to be buying when people like Miner are pushing the negative view and when the Dow is on a downer


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## Risky Trader (9 November 2007)

winsol said:


> I'll take an independent brokers perspective anytime over a an article that someone thinks they read in a lunch room that they now can't reproduce which is based on some journos view of the world.




I have to say, I am with Winsol on this on.... Seeing is believing, so unless miner comes up with actual proof... this is rather lame attempt to spread rumour and manipulate SP. 

Yes Cameron seen to be millions miles away from civilisation as we know it
Yes SDL is no way near production
Yes it is a speculative stock
and YES it's rather long term stock.... for those going for a short ride;... probably find it scary.

IMHO .. I bet all the commodities price has been effected by the US dollar value...

Shocking? not really wouldn't be suprise if AUD match USD by the end of the year.

Will it recover?...that bazillion dollars question.


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## Miner (10 November 2007)

Risky Trader and Winsol

Thanks for your posting.
Let me put the record straight.
I am not ramping down SDL. I am holding the shares and bought them at 40 cents. It will be against my interest to ramp down SDL.
Fact is it is a bad investment now with circumstances. With stronger Oz $ the situation is worsened.
If I manage to go library in the weekend I will make sure by MOnday/Tuesday the section from Australian is posted in this forum. For those who has the copy of Perth Australian of Wednesday 7 Nov can see the business page themselves. 
 Some of us probably behaving like camel in the desert . Putting the mouth in desert to avoid storm or a kid to close teh eyes thinking no one could see him. Choice is yours. Fact remains SDL is now a dud and I am not ramping down rather would like to see the share to go up so that I can sell with good profit. 
Now here is the extract from Eureka Report of today 9Nov  by Tim and it speaks itself- no mention on GBG or SDL.

*Stock picks*
So, you say, name the shares. On a commodity-by-commodity basis here’s a theoritical share portfolio structure like this: 

*Iron ore: after the big two - BHP and RIO - go only for the stocks with haematite (direct shipping) ore. Companies proposing to mine lower-grade magnetite face an enormous barrier in the form of high energy costs*. Best of the emerging haematite stocks were listed in Eureka Report on October 17 – BC Iron, Iron Ore Holdings, FerrAus, Territory Resources and Centrex. Two new names for that list are Yilgarn Mining and Giralia which have their feet on excellent deposits and of course, don't forget Fortescue. 
Nickel: Xstrata started the ball rolling. Others will follow. Stocks to watch as takeover targets are: Western Areas, Sally Malay, Mincor and Independence (also for its gold position). 
Copper: Oxiana, Aditya Birla, Kagara, Jaguar Metals and CopperCo. 
Zinc: Zinifex, CBH Resources, Terramin and TNG.


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## Risky Trader (13 November 2007)

Does anyone know is there will be any goods news during the AGM or does will the meeting help the SP?

Annual General Meeting
Level 8, Exchange Plaza, 2 The Esplanade Perth WA

Thu, 29 Nov 2007
2:00PM


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## Vaughan (13 November 2007)

I find it confusing how people sentiments over SDL are constantly fluctuating.

Nothing has really changed, sure there is a risk, but its the same risk we were facing months ago. Before the merger people were talking quite positively about SDL and suddenly its a dud...

This share still has a great long term value as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps we should wait for the next round of results to come out before we write it off.


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## vjindal (13 November 2007)

I feel that stock should bottom out very soon and should resume upward march if the company can come up with +ve drilling results . I am still confident that it will trade around $1k by end of next year.


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## Risky Trader (13 November 2007)

Yes the risk has not change.. that 's why we seeing SP back to 49 - 52 range.. pre merger talk..

I agree that the company have too much to offer in long term and it will be worth waiting (3 more years)

BUT the management has not been very forth coming with positive news or any news infact that is relating to the mining exploration...ALL we seeing are rather useless news such ... shares issues and bla bla bla

Where are the damn drilling results???????? Surely by now smart management should be doing something to bolster invester moral.. 

IMHO the waiting games has become a bit taxing even for the most loyal investers. people start to wonder why they keep their monies in SDL while they can invest in stock such as MHL and RAU.. 

---


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## spottygoose (13 November 2007)

Very timely in that case for today's change in director's interest notice. Ken Talbot has bought another 3 million SDL shares.


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## jonojpsg (13 November 2007)

vjindal said:


> I feel that stock should bottom out very soon and should resume upward march if the company can come up with +ve drilling results . I am still confident that it will trade around $1k by end of next year.




Mate   $1k   I'm in for everything I've got   That would make me a multi millionaire


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## Risky Trader (13 November 2007)

LOL

talk about coincedence...

Nevertheless it's far too little and do nothing if that was meant to lift invester sentiments.


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## tsar (15 November 2007)

Does anyone know when is this JORC resource report expected to hit the markets? I was under the impression that it would be out around late Novemeber, is that correct?


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## insidetrader (16 November 2007)

bankable is due some time in december... 

that should be the start of good things again for SDL...


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## Miner (17 November 2007)

I agree with INsidetrader.
It was only few months ago SDL was looking for Project Manager to take up the BFS. They moved the Worley Parsons team from FMG to SDL in about Sept.
Now they are reinforcing their project team. These are TELL TALE signs that SDL is going to hit with a bang. THeir senior management team has just returned from Africa. 

So we are getting some news in mid Jan : bad or good unless done earlier.

Regards


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## kransky (17 November 2007)

insidetrader said:


> bankable is due some time in december...
> 
> that should be the start of good things again for SDL...




cant imagine the BFS is due in dec when the next set of drilling results are due in the dec quarterly... ???


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## tezz (19 November 2007)

You will have to be patient with SDL for a bit longer as the huge volumes going on the stock a few weeks ago were speculators looking for a fast buck, the selling is still going on and won't stop untill these traders are out of it, the stock seems to be holding up to the selling staying around 48-51.
Don't follow the dumb sheep, this is the time to buy more,
If you read the last report they are fast tracking their drilling by bringing in another rig to confirm the 1 billion tons, they have also got people studying the railway route and port and once operational will interest other miners in that area and will become a big asset.
AS already mentioned the director bought another 1 million shares, SDL is also heavily backed in Europe.
Once the resource is confirmed companies could buy up large and hold which could put a demand on the stock, then your guess is good as mine how far the stock will go.


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## spc_75 (22 November 2007)

G'day, long time reader, first time poster.

Any one know why Loxton Investment Trust is bailing? and can anyone read the figure in the attached "Notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder" letter from Loxton? Could  be 10.9, 14.9, 70.9, or 74.9. After reviewing the Annual Company Report 2007, i'm assuming it is 10.9Mill as Loxton appear to hold 12,000,000 shares. I guess on those figures, it is at least heartening to see that they didn't pull right out.

Will it have a further effect on SP besides the last few days? Are other big holders likely to follow?

Cheers,
SPC


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## nikki (22 November 2007)

spc_75 said:


> G'day, long time reader, first time poster.
> 
> Any one know why Loxton Investment Trust is bailing? and can anyone read the figure in the attached "Notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder" letter from Loxton? Could  be 10.9, 14.9, 70.9, or 74.9. After reviewing the Annual Company Report 2007, i'm assuming it is 10.9Mill as Loxton appear to hold 12,000,000 shares. I guess on those figures, it is at least heartening to see that they didn't pull right out.
> 
> ...




SPC,

i do not think it is clear at all what has happened. the figure is 74.9 which is the amount Loxton has? i was actually wondering whether the release of the escrow diluted their holdings or perhaps someone has been buying lots to kick them out of substantial holder position????

initially i thought they had been selling out - explaining the huge selling force in the past few week.

i think someone on hotcopper has emailed management to get views on this strange annoucement.

to be honest, i am more concerned with sdl falling bellow its 200 DMA than whether Loxton has sold or not?


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## nikki (22 November 2007)

*great news*

DJ Sundance Resources Started At Buy By Goldman Sachs JBWere.

I am sure SDL will turn this into an announcement. Goldman Sachs have Hold on Mount Gibson.


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## --B-- (22 November 2007)

what do you think this means for shareholders, nikki?

is this a good or bad thing for the share price?


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## spottygoose (22 November 2007)

--B-- said:


> what do you think this means for shareholders, nikki?
> 
> is this a good or bad thing for the share price?




It is a good thing B. Thanks to Pecora for this:

0907 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere initiates coverage of Sundance Resources (SDL.AU) with a buy rating on potential of its Cameroon iron ore project. Says Sundance is high risk high reward but, "should the project be developed, its potential size and scale create a very attractive iron ore company." Target price set at 70 cents; last trade of 47 cents. (APW)


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## Risky Trader (22 November 2007)

Finally the SP is on move.. upward that is.

Still.. no news, anyone have any info about this? trading at .52 as we speak.


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## grace (22 November 2007)

Personally, I would rather invest in Giralia.  It has a target DSO of +1 billion tonne on only one of their tenements (200 kms from existing rail).  They have others deposits as well.  At least giralia is in Australia and less distance to build rail line etc than Sundance, with a much lower market cap!  IMO...DYOR


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## spc_75 (23 November 2007)

Does anyone have the full Goldman Sachs JBWere report, and if so could you please upload it here?

SDL ftw!!


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## Risky Trader (29 November 2007)

what's everyone thought on the AGM results...

nothing new or exciting came out of it.......

anyone know if any drilling due in near future or the company will be in idle mode till next year?

Ta


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## Peakey (29 November 2007)

They've been drilling for several months now, I would've thought they'd have some details to shed...... rather then just the:

_"When I visited Mbalam earlier this year I was particularly impressed by the quality and extent of the surface hematite mineralization over the initial Mbarga exploration area, which represents just one of several targets with some 36km of prospective iron-bearing formation identified within our permit area."_

_"I expect to be in a position to announce an initial Inferred Resource for the Mbarga prospect in the first part of next year."_

Looks like we'll be waiting until early next year for some hint of progress. Patience required I guess Risky.


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## Risky Trader (30 November 2007)

DOH!!!!



don't know about you.. patience and loyalty are running thin.....


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## nikki (30 November 2007)

totally agree.

if i wasnt sitting at a loss i would certainly make my money work for me in some other stock. long-term i think there is a lot going for SDL but in the short-term i feel like i need to move on?


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## nikkothescorpio (30 November 2007)

Yup, my sentiment exactly.  I stupidly went overweight into SDL - selling out of GBG and getting in around 70c or so.

I agree that long term based on the info we have it looks a good hold but it seems to have pretty good support at this 50c or so level and looks likely to meander around here until some drillig results are released , which based on the AGM info looks to be in the first half of 2008.

They seem to be moving awfully slowly and yes perhaps its one where you could sell now....take the cgt loss on it - use that capital for something with better short term prospects and look to re-enter at another time.

Is the 2nd worst performing share in my motley crew!


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## nikki (30 November 2007)

yeehhh. i thought of doing that but then i noticed increased volumes today going up - obviously due to the confidence in the market generally. 

good point though about taking the CGT loss and doing something else with the money while the SDL SP figures out what it wants to do.

today was a solid rejection of lower prices! the chart seems to be developing a cup-like figure which indicates a possible breakout once again to retest the highs (at least of 0.6). the MACD is still strong even though the SP keeps going up and down!!!

it seems there was someone in the past couple of days who had a lot and was desperate to sell. I noticed someone with a 2 million plus sell order hanging around in a very obvious way???

i thought of putting some into JMS that has drill results comming out this months but i keep noticing the SP going down!!!!

go SDL I say - still bullish (i think).


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## tezz (30 November 2007)

The buyers for SDL have been a bit shy after seeing it get shot down after hitting 60c when Goldman Sachs gave the stock a target of 70c, hopefully these speculators are getting bored and starting to thin out as the selling has been ongoing for weeks, what I have noticed in the last few days and especially today, the buyers are placing their orders at 4pm, if you click on todays trades, thats if you have that feature you will see the orders that have gone through at 4.10pm, I think it was about 2 million shares bought.
Day traders and speculators don't buy on a Friday at 4pm, they sell.
If the 1 billion tons is there it looks like it could be 3 seperate hematite deposits, hopefully early 2008 we will know.


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## golfmos123 (1 December 2007)

Haven't posted here for a while so time to put the 2c in...

Bottom line for me is that nothing much has changed.  So if there was a reason for the SP to rise towards 80 in the past, then the reasons are still basically there for it to happen again.  But the next set of results are critical, we seem to have been promised them for a long long time.  Early 2008 could still mean we are waiting a few months yet for them as well.

But the good news is that Talbot is still buying and that can't be overlooked.  I also feel that there are a lot of people who got into SDL when the price was peaking (hindsight is a wonderful thing!) and there has been a lot of exiting of those positions when there have clearly been better things to put the cash into.  We still seem to have a lot of sellers floating around that are stopping the SP from moving forwards and the rapid march to 60c last week just flushed a lot of them out early I think.

Long term, I'm very keen on SDL.  Unless there is major Cameroon government resistance, once the resource is defined, then we really have a goer because the will to do it is strong.  I first starting accumulating SDL when it was in the 20s and have continued to buy all the way through into the 60s on the way up, and have bought more on the slide downwards from there.  I'm still in the black but am betting a lot on this one coming off next year.

Remember what an additional billion tonnes did for FMG????  Can't wait for that to happen here.


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## nikki (1 December 2007)

to be honest i have been surprised at the selling pressure in the past few weeks between 0.465 - 0.5.

i noticed that on thursday and friday most of the sales were very large which means that someone with bigger holdings was getting frustrated and leaving.

alternatively, it is all those options that have been exercised and the ownders are now selling to get some cash.

buying interest really increased on friday towards the end of the day with a couple of 1 million plus buys - could be a sign that others think that the selling pressure might have finished.

it seems that 300 mt is our first and next stop. management seem to be very confident in inestors putting money into west africa. i am guessing that infrastructure funds will come from a joint venture !!


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## Miner (1 December 2007)

Hi 
I do not know which site shows the trading was done after the market was closed. It would be of interest many of us if *you please send a link.*
In  Bell Potters site they provide the volume but do not probably show any after hours trading. Commsec does not show any thing.

Any way I thought to provide you some extract from an advertisement. Though it does not say about SDL knowing the head hunter and the nature of description I know it will be for SDL . Why should SDL advertise for a GM unless they are seriously moving into project execution ? Only a few weeks back as I reported in this column they have advertised for a senior project management role through the same head hunter ? This time they tried to keep  the name of company secret  Bad news is the BFS  is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2008 and add delay factor of 4 months!!
Any way judge yourself and make inference. I can mention one thing though SDL appears to be very organised even they are small.
In FMG they never appointed any such roles still going strong.

Regards

Miner


Job Description 
*General Manager Infrastructure - Perth*

*www.miningemployment.com.au*

Our clients *exciting new Iron Ore Project located in **Cameroon on the Guinea *Coast Central Africa is currently seeking the services of an experienced General Manager Infrastructure for their Perth Western Australia Office, reporting to the Chief Executive Officer this position is offered on a permanent residential basis with some site visits required.

Responsibilities of this role are:

*Responsibility for all infrastructure aspects of the project to completion of a Bankable Feasibility Study by end 2008.*
Major rail and port development works.
Direction and supervision of project staff, consultants.
Site investigations & financial assessment.
Requirements of this role are:
An engineering qualification in a relevant discipline.
Minimum of fifteen years experience in major project development and operations. Extensive experience in managing feasibility work through to financial close, including engineering; development of capex and opex budgets; procurement, tendering and development of contracting strategies, and project financing.
Iron ore experience is essential with experience in resources development in Africa or other developing country exposure preferred.
Particular expertise in rail and/or port infrastructure is essential.

This position will appeal to candidates seeking a challenge and career development opportunities in a major, overseas start-up project. The ability to train and motivate support staff is key and previous expatriate experience, particularly in Africa will be highly regarded. French-speaking capability will be an advantage. Strong interpersonal skills and an awareness and commitment to OH&S and environmental principles are required. Attractive remuneration packages, including health insurance benefits, will be negotiated with the successful candidate


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## nikki (1 December 2007)

Hi! Miner,

thanks for the advertising? that is most interesting and very supportive of their belief in having at least 500mt to make the project work.

i use http://www.stocknessmonster.com/ to see trades. it is delayed during the day but at the end of the day it gives you good readings of trades that happened.


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## Miner (2 December 2007)

nikki said:


> Hi! Miner,
> 
> thanks for the advertising? that is most interesting and very supportive of their belief in having at least 500mt to make the project work.
> 
> i use http://www.stocknessmonster.com/ to see trades. it is delayed during the day but at the end of the day it gives you good readings of trades that happened.




Thanks Nikki. I was not advertising  the job ad . It was rather bringing people awareness on tangible matters by putting  the advertisement.'
I realise reading your note on the hindsight I actually  did a favour to the headhunter to a good forum and it was inadvertently done. 

Regards


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## nikki (2 December 2007)

Miner said:


> Thanks Nikki. I was not advertising  the job ad . It was rather bringing people awareness on tangible matters by putting  the advertisement.'
> I realise reading your note on the hindsight I actually  did a favour to the headhunter to a good forum and it was inadvertently done.
> 
> Regards




hmmm - i should have said thanks for bringing the idea to our attention. i do not know anyone in the mining industry


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## Piggy Bank (5 December 2007)

SDL willl be part of the ASX200 from this Friday.  Greater exposure to institutional investors should provide good support for the share price and further interest into the future.  Continuing to hold.


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## Risky Trader (6 December 2007)

As I remember SDL made it to ASX 300 not too long ago and still it does nothing for the SP... Don't know if the new promotion will help...skeptical


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## aussiebuggaa (6 December 2007)

This could be a launching pad for SDL.  A Symmetry Triangle setting up just ahead of the ASX200 listing.  If they get a flood gate of Buyers then we should see an explosive move to the upside (IMO).  The stock momentum is also starting to turn its head to the upside.

Disclosure: I am a holder of this stock as of today, entered at $0.5.


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## daggs (6 December 2007)

I agree bugga. looks ready for another move.
I have traded SDL 3 times in the last 8 months and made between 25 and 80% each time. Got back in today at .495 at the close.


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## bvbfan (7 December 2007)

I think its the All Australia 200 not the ASX S&P 200 which SDL is going into

Dah dah dah dah dah dah


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## Piggy Bank (7 December 2007)

bvbfan said:


> I think its the All Australia 200 not the ASX S&P 200 which SDL is going into
> 
> Dah dah dah dah dah dah




Yes, you are absolutely right!  SDL is entering the All Australian 200 and not the ASX200.  I read the announcement incorrectly.  Apologies.


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## nikki (7 December 2007)

what's the difference between the All Australian and the S&P ASX 200?

do fund managers follow one and not the other?


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## blablabla (7 December 2007)

The All Australian 200 only includes Australian companies whereas the S&PASX200 includes the top 200 ASX-listed companies by market cap regardless of where they are domiciled. The S&PASX200 is included in more funds than the AA200.

If an Australian company is in the AA200 but not in the S&P200 and if its market cap is rising then sooner or later it will get into the S&P200.


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## sheepdip (7 December 2007)

I've also jumped into SDL today. That triangle has run its course now so it seems like a very solid entry at this point in time. On Monday we will see which trendline remains intact. Both look like solid trends but one has to fail. If we hadn't dropped back at the close I would have said the uptrend had already won but that fall back at the death keeps the downtrend in with a chance. Tight stops if the downtrend wins


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## nikki (8 December 2007)

the close today surprised me because the average VWAP was 50.5.

selling volume has been huge given how long its been consolidating at this level.

there was some large buyers today which took the SP up - interestingly lots of small sellers getting rid of their stocks!!

i.e. i wonder if smaller traders are ignoring the potential of an upwards move and larger traders are seing otherwise.

slow stochastic is about to cross but the fast one is telling me sell??? what does that mean? the RSI is weak but the MACD is moving up. this is positive i think!

next week will be interesting!!


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## tronic72 (10 December 2007)

daggs said:


> I agree bugga. looks ready for another move.
> I have traded SDL 3 times in the last 8 months and made between 25 and 80% each time. Got back in today at .495 at the close.




DÃ©jÃ  Vu, 

I got in at .495 at todays close 

Come on Baby, Pappa needs a new diamond encrusted cardboard house to sleep in when it all goes belly up!


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## nikki (10 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> DÃ©jÃ  Vu,
> 
> I got in at .495 at todays close
> 
> Come on Baby, Pappa needs a new diamond encrusted cardboard house to sleep in when it all goes belly up!




what stock did you buy - sdl closed @ 0.485 just above resistance?

i am begining to really dislike this stock on technical terms - will it ever get out of its 0.48 - 0.52 range?


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## tronic72 (11 December 2007)

Not much point getting angry at the Market. For the record I made my trade just prior to closing, hence the difference between my purchase price and the closing price.


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## nikkothescorpio (11 December 2007)

nikki said:


> what stock did you buy - sdl closed @ 0.485 just above resistance?
> 
> i am begining to really dislike this stock on technical terms - will it ever get out of its 0.48 - 0.52 range?





As an SDL holder myself who bought more than I should have I feel your pain - but really until that drilling is done why really would it move anywhere?

Personally I'm happy its found rocksolid support at these levels - as I was close to cutting my losses with it, having bought in at *gulp*...77c.

I just wish they'd get this drilling done and get the mammoth project that it could be really running.

Great time to buy in now for folks - but others can only be patient or top up if you're very confident.


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## tronic72 (13 December 2007)

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/071122/19/1hxex.html

"0101 GMT

* West African iron ore prospector Sundance Resources Ltd (ASX: SDL.ax) rose 4.3 percent to A$0.49.

Goldman Sachs JBWere initiated coverage on the company with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of A$0.70, citing a favourable outlook for the iron ore market."


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## Risky Trader (13 December 2007)

not sure I should happy or annoyed about this news.

70 cents!!!! in 12 months?????? that just mean we all stuck in this **** for YEARS!

then again, if Goldman Sachs JBWere mentioned SDL... this might bring in some new buyers... 

...
The broker that told me SDL will hit $1 by the end of the year should be fired.


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## prawn_86 (13 December 2007)

IMO any African project carries a huge amount of risk.

I dont know too much about SDL but it appears to me that they seem to be more about looking after management and major holders, if i remember correctly they have a heap of options on issue for those sorts of people.

Also lets not forget how far off this project actually is from production and peer comparisons of market caps.

On a positive note, brokers like Goldman etc usually always have a conservative target.


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## Real1ty (13 December 2007)

I can understand the holders who bought in at the higher share prices to be a bit worried but all in all there is no reason for this share price to move very far as there is nothing really to drive the stock very far atm.

You can find a copy of the JBWere recommendation on the companies web site or here


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## tronic72 (13 December 2007)

I think the people who are complaining about SDL simply aren't aware of the huge scope of the project. Do you guys have any idea how big this mine will be when it's completed???? We are talking about a company that could be turning over over a billion dollars in half a decade.

Have you read the GS review? It states more than once that the company is for those who want to to be exposed to a High Risk / High reward company. Do you really think it's that easy to double or triple your money without risk?

Patience people.


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## prawn_86 (13 December 2007)

Key word there tronic is _could_.

I also think that half a decade is overly ambitious. Due to labour (which is somewhat negated by being in Africa), drilling, equipment etc shortages i seriously think they will struggle to be a producer within 5 years.

10 years maybe, but as i said i dont know the co very well.

Just keeping it real (ish)


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## Real1ty (13 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Key word there tronic is _could_.
> 
> I also think that half a decade is overly ambitious. Due to labour (which is somewhat negated by being in Africa), drilling, equipment etc shortages i seriously think they will struggle to be a producer within 5 years.
> 
> ...




prawn, i'm not sure if you have read the report yet but the brokers have factored in a very conservative approach for everything so i think the report is a very realistic case scenario.

I should state that i am not a holder, YET, as i feel there MIGHT be a little more downside and would like to buy into the stock, obviously, at a lower price if possible.

Imo, the main risk in the SHORT term is the next drilling results.
If they are positive i believe the stock will be revalued and this is also the brokers views, which say a lot more than some guy on the internet


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## prawn_86 (13 December 2007)

I can find many 'guys on the net' that have a better record than brokers.

Im not saying this is a bad stock, im just trying to add some realism. You should know that from your name 

I dont know if a drilling result will cause a revaluation, i guess it depends on how many holes, and if it is accompanied with a JORC release. One also has to take into account how much the stock has risen in the past year, as this might make some people wary. But it sure would have been a nice return if you held from a year ago


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## Real1ty (13 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> I can find many 'guys on the net' that have a better record than brokers.
> 
> Im not saying this is a bad stock, im just trying to add some realism. You should know that from your name
> 
> I dont know if a drilling result will cause a revaluation, i guess it depends on how many holes, and if it is accompanied with a JORC release. One also has to take into account how much the stock has risen in the past year, as this might make some people wary. But it sure would have been a nice return if you held from a year ago




You may have misunderstood me but that "guy on the net" i was talking about, was me, not you.

I understand your point about keeping things in perspective but i also feel that the brokers have done that job very well.


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## prawn_86 (13 December 2007)

I wasnt talking about me either, my track record is average to say the least.

I think brokers reports are ok, but certainly not the be all and end all. Definetly a good place to start though


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## kransky (14 December 2007)

problem is that SDL has a lot of potential (possibly huge deposit) but only have half a dozen drill holes to "verify" this so this adds to risk.

The projects requires a LONG rail line to be built. and thus lots of $ to pay for it.. can they get the money without issuing a gazillion new shares?

The project is not far from countries that are unstable... more risk

risk adds to uncertainty and this discounts the SP.

but SDL are already valued at 900M.. at 50c

imo there are better opportunities for making $ out there in the current resource boom...


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## Miner (16 December 2007)

Not sure how many of us have read the report in weekend newspaper today about one Mr Ken Talbot who reportedly bribed $300K to a Qld Mininster.
Interesting story there.

Regards


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## Miner (16 December 2007)

Just to add to my previous post : the newspaper is Weekend Australian. The heading "No Cash Left for a lawyer - Nuttall". Gordon Nuttall is the ex Qld Minister facinig corruption charges over secret payments received from two business identities .... Mining magnet Ken Talbot and company director Harold Shand.

We the SDL holders shoudl not fear . The investment interest for SDL is in Africa and nothing moves in some part of that world unless you pay Ã¡dmininstrative expenses' to get the ball rolling in your favour. 
If Nuttall can be bribed in Australia there would be bigger Nuttals in Africa who could follow without being prosecuted.
So bottom line where is our investment and how that looks in next 6 months.

Regards


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## J.C. (17 December 2007)

Are you sure we shouldn't fear? I'm balls-deep in SDL and the prices are just plummetting.... getting very scared right now... I'm new to this so it's my biggest loss so far... Anyone offer any thoughts to ease my mind? thanks


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## spottygoose (17 December 2007)

Market is way down, people wanting cash + stop losses being hit - that is one of the possible explanations....


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

J.C. said:


> Are you sure we shouldn't fear? I'm balls-deep in SDL and the prices are just plummetting.... getting very scared right now... I'm new to this so it's my biggest loss so far... Anyone offer any thoughts to ease my mind? thanks




I'm eating my words here (see previous post). I've sold all my holdings in SDL (and all other stocks). I'm seeing some bumpy times ahead. Took a 10% lost of SDL but if I hadn't sold on Friday it would have been nearly 20%

What's your currently loss on SDL J.C.? If you can absorb the loss and preserve much of your capital then I'd jump ship. If you can't then you'll have to hang on. I don't doubt that SDL will turn around. My advice is, if you choose to hang on for the ride, turn your computer off and wait for some positive news on TV, otherwise you'll give yourself an ulcer.


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> I can find many 'guys on the net' that have a better record than brokers.
> 
> Im not saying this is a bad stock, im just trying to add some realism. You should know that from your name
> 
> I dont know if a drilling result will cause a revaluation, i guess it depends on how many holes, and if it is accompanied with a JORC release. One also has to take into account how much the stock has risen in the past year, as this might make some people wary. But it sure would have been a nice return if you held from a year ago




Hmmm What about those hundreds of Brokers who recommended BOL???

IMHO many broker recommended shares are over bought.

My 2c


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## J.C. (17 December 2007)

Hmmm thanks for the advice! Currently at a 16.8% loss on SDL, bought in at 0.49 last week after reading this thread... doh!

I suppose its always going to be a hard thing, to sell the first stock that I've made a loss on but it happens to everyone at some point right? I'm tempted to keep my fingers crossed for those drilling results but arrrrrghhhh so many decisions!!


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## daggs (17 December 2007)

I am still holding after my sell order at .47 failed.(long story).
Testing 40c support now so may well bounce if the market turns around.
I am holding now till end of Jan to check out the quarterly report.
Given the amount of investment from major players above this level I think there,s a good chance 40c support will hold.
Just my


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## J.C. (17 December 2007)

Hmmm thanks for the insight... so many things to think about  Daggs I hope you're right, fingers crossed!


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

I'd sell. Especially if it's your first loss. Didn't you have your stops in?

I  bought at .495 so similar losses. Keep in mind the speculative stocks like SDL tend to have higher highs a lower lows so it's really badly effected by this Market Downturn. I'll wait to see what wall street does. If it has a good day I might just buy back in tomorrow (or the day after).


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## J.C. (17 December 2007)

No stops unfortunately... only been doing this for 2 weeks and sort of just dove in headfirst a bit hastily... Anyway thanks heaps for your advice, will make a decision shortly... Good luck with buying back in, hopefully you'll pick the right moment and they will go up and help both of us out


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## nikki (17 December 2007)

hey J.C.

a few things to think about:

specs move up and down in much higher percentages than your average blue chip. 5% down today can turn into 20% up tommorrow. a blue chip (unless you are into CNP or ABS today) move in maximum 2-4% before buyers come in.

when specs hammer the turn around in sentiment is really good.

the question to ask is what price would you be buying in at. why sell at a price that others are using to enter the stock.

the RIS on SDL is getting closer to its lowest ever - meaning, the market is getting oversold signals. a lot of traders do not enter until this happens.

look at the buying support @ 0.42 and below. it looks strong.

selling at a loss is ok if you know you are going to make something with your money in the short term - tax deduction on losses means your loss is less than it might appear.

today will be one of the worst day for the XJO and XAO!! it is easy to be very scared when the index crashes like this.

SDL has very strong support below 0.4. a lot of stops will trigger if it hits .4 but a lot of buy orders will come out as well.

i bought in @ 0.58 so i am sitting at a bigger loss than you!!! not sure that this helps???

i say, sell and buy CNP and lose another 10% lol lol lol


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## J.C. (17 December 2007)

Thanks Nikki, that really helps... I was plannign on holding just a little bit longer anyway just in case... And I think you just solidified my point of view. Tahnks and good luck to both of us on SDL


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## spottygoose (17 December 2007)

Good news. Announcement out - SDL to be included in the ASX 200. Very timely and hopefully will soften the blow of today and perhaps be the impetus for a bounce. Note this is the ASX 200 not the All Australian which was the basis for the recent inclusion announcement. This is much better.


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## waterford (18 December 2007)

Intersting reading some of the thoughts being aired here about SDL. 

Ken Talbots involement with Nutall has nothing to do with SDL, it goes back some time, a couple of years I suspect. I am a bit of a fan of Talbot, he founded MCC, still retains 30% of the company, MCC. He has made some large investments in Australian Companies looking to the future, many articles in Newspapers have featured his vision for these Companies & it makes interesting reading, some of his stakes are in MCC,GMX, SDL,SAU,ZNC,KAR,INP,MTM, SDM, QOL & possibly more. Talbot Holdings has around 20% of SDL's issued script, I think the bulk of it (script) was amassed this year, if you think any of you have a problem losing money on paper, get this,every 1cent fall on my calculations would be a loss of approx $3,600,000 to Talbot Holdings, I suspect he is still hanging in there & possibly buying.

Ralph Sarich is another large investor in SDL, these quality investors don't make decisions lightly, they are confident their investment will bring home a hansome profit in the long term, I share this confidence in SDL, I might be wrong & time will tell, but for now I am staying with SDL

Cheers


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## J.C. (18 December 2007)

Well I just sold at 0.40... will buy back in once the price bottoms out, which for me is hopefully not yet


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## prawn_86 (18 December 2007)

waterford,

what evidence do you have that talbot is currently buying?

If none, then please do not post claims that can be supported.


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## waterford (18 December 2007)

Hi Prawn

Did not say he (Talbot) was buying, mentioned "possibly buying" by that I meant with the price low he(Talbot) might consider SDL a good buy at .40c


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## daggs (18 December 2007)

I agree totally with nikki's post. 
If I wasn,t allready holding I would look at the chart now and buy with a stop loss around .37c
I balls up my trade by not respecting my initial stop at .47, but why make it worse by selling at what could very well be the low.


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## prawn_86 (18 December 2007)

waterford said:


> Hi Prawn
> 
> Did not say he (Talbot) was buying, mentioned "possibly buying" by that I meant with the price low he(Talbot) might consider SDL a good buy at .40c




Lots of people "might consider" this, or any, stock a good buy. There was no need to mention Talbots name in relation to buying more, as he clearly has not done so, and i am assuming you do not know him personally, so do not know what (if anything) he is considering buying.


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## waterford (18 December 2007)

You must be having one of those days.

The point I was making, in case you failed to get it, was SDL has some good investors, ie Talbot Holdings & Sarich, they show confidence SDL has a future. I have no idea who is buying or selling, stop being so pedantic on the semantic, go re read your own post, you might see where I am coming from. 

You have no idea who know or don't know, so don't make assumptions.

Have a good day, Prawn


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## Risky Trader (18 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Lots of people "might consider" this, or any, stock a good buy. There was no need to mention Talbots name in relation to buying more, as he clearly has not done so, and i am assuming you do not know him personally, so do not know what (if anything) he is considering buying.




Prawn.. this a forum for suggestive or personal opinion...

Talk about been touchy...

Dude.. chill a little. give the fella some break

the fella mearly saying... Talbot might be buying...in his personal OPINION..
Forum meant for discussion... 

If I say Africa might be verge of world war 3.. should I be shot?

...
Opinion mearly mean opinion


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## daggs (18 December 2007)

J.C. said:


> Well I just sold at 0.40... will buy back in once the price bottoms out, which for me is hopefully not yet




Selling right on support levels can lead to a lot of missed oppotunities. I always set my stop loss just below these levels to give the SP a chance to test then respect/reject the support.


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## prawn_86 (18 December 2007)

Risky,

Waterford is a new user and may not know the forum rules. By insinuating that Talbot may be buying (without any evidence) is ramping.

Otherwise I could go through all the stock i own and say that the main investors may be buying. They might be, but they might not be, so its a useless (ramping) comment

So as not to take this further of track, if there is any problem please PM me...


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

waterford said:


> You must be having one of those days.
> 
> The point I was making, in case you failed to get it, was SDL has some good investors, ie Talbot Holdings & Sarich, they show confidence SDL has a future. I have no idea who is buying or selling, stop being so pedantic on the semantic, go re read your own post, you might see where I am coming from.
> 
> ...




I am with prawn on this one.

You say don't make assumptions, yet you assume that Talbot may possibly be buying?

You obviously are assuming as you state you don't know who is or isn't buying.

Your assumption can cause a lot more harm than prawns.

There are a lot of inexperienced investors on here that can be influenced by your statements.

IF your intention was to declare the holdings of Talbot, then that's all you needed to do NOT to assume that he may or not be buying more?

I would also think as a new poster you would take the advice of the mod and learn from it rather than being smart about it.

I back prawns judgment on this one and while i can't see what was edited my guess is it was a warranted edit


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## waterford (18 December 2007)

Did I say I didn't make assumptions? Don't think so!

There was no intention on my part to harm anyone, if any investor out there is running off to buy SDL share on my posting then they are a tad foolish, not even I, a dumb beginner would do that! 

I am very keen on SDL & my enthusiasm was evident, I do not, or was I intending to influence a potential buyer or seller of SDL script 

Deleted this section, my lawyer isn't present

Yes I am new here as you are no doubt aware, I made a mistake, it's no crime & I have read your comments & taken all on board. However we all make mistakes, or have I met the perfect pair? I am going to admit, that on the evidence as you are presenting it I made an error of judgement & wording, but please I want to see the New Year in, can we postpone the execution till January 2nd 2008, I want to be over my hangover & face you with a clear head.

If I have any other readers out there who want to have a go, do it with panache, please! I am badly bruised

Now can both of your sit back, relax & enjoy what is left of today.

Cheers


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## nikki (18 December 2007)

the real question is do you buy now or not.

held 0.4 really well but seems to be struggling below 0.42 resistance. 

sdl has clearly gone below its 200DMA which means it is going to do its bearish dance until some news comes our way.

i am skeptical of 200 DMA's because SDL is still above it if you took out the GBG/SDL merger period.

my guess is it might consolidate above 0.4 for a little while like it has done in the past.

a lot of the buying today seems to be from smaller players who obviously sold today or yesterday and trying to get back in thinking it is going up again?????

any thoughts? we have no news to talk about except the SP - have to say this silence treatment really annoys me???


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

There are better (more secure) bargains to be had today. The bluechips are available at much better prices with the added security that comes with buying premium shares. I'd be staying clear of more speculative shares while the market is in free fall.

Note: Have purchased ZFX today


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## nikki (18 December 2007)

hey tronic72,

which free fall were you looking at. i only saw a bungy jump that must have hurt a lot of scared people this morning.

IMO today was one of those remarkable buying opportunities that has come once before in August and i starred both of them in the face and decided to let fear win?

why is ZFX any better than a small cap - i thought ZFX was on a down trend just like SDL. if the commodities bubble is going to go bust then the big and small will go with it.

they are both single commodity stocks. ZFX's volitality is just as high because of the movement of the zinc price. it has cash in hand just like sdl and is not relying on debt for the moment anyway???

if i was going safe i would buy BHP which does not rely on a single commodity price or 1 or 2 mines to be profitable - less volitality in short and long term IMO.

the real difference between SDL/ZFX and other single commodity stocks is IMO their management of risk. obviously, SDL is still trying to prove it has anything but other than that 

my questions are not rhetorical and i am just trying to learn from others by thinking aloud.

cheers tronic72 and i hope you bought ZFX @ the open today?


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

Hmm. Sounds like someone's got their Nikkis in a knot? (If I've misread you, which is easy to do on forums, then my bad).

The reason I "suggested" that the Blue Chips were a better buy in the current market, is that Speculative Stocks (which SDL is) tend to drop further than Blue Chips. (as a rule)

If you look at ZFX you'll see it's hit resistance at todays prices three times this year. SDL on the other hand is not far from it's recent highs (over a longer time line) and it is also a "high risk, high return" share as stated on numerous occasions in the recent GS report which recommended SDL as a buy.

In regards to your comments on the bubble bursting; which company will be worth nothing if it bursts? The company that is and will continue producing or the company that hasn't produced anything? Who would want to invest in a speculative mining company if the bubble bursts? (your suggestion not mine).

For the record I have no problem with SDL at all. If you look through this thread, you'll see I've held them up until recently.

Finally, I purchased ZFX at 12.4 which is the price it sat on for most of the day, so I figured it had hit a point of resistance. I mentioned it in the interests of disclosure. I don't remember recommending it???


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## nikki (18 December 2007)

i think we misread each other? i was not suggesting that you were down ramping SDL or suggesting we buy ZFX - i was debating the pros and cons and speculative vs blue chips? nothing intended in my comments even if it might come across that way?

glad for you that you bought ZFX at what might be its lows - lets hope this friday another rumour re a merger begins? 

sure if our bubble's burst someone who can sell a commodity is likely to do better than those who hope to sell in 2011? perhaps SDL might have to sell the land to the chinese if things to wrong?

good luck with your trading?


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## tronic72 (19 December 2007)

nikki said:


> i think we misread each other? i was not suggesting that you were down ramping SDL or suggesting we buy ZFX - i was debating the pros and cons and speculative vs blue chips? nothing intended in my comments even if it might come across that way?
> 
> glad for you that you bought ZFX at what might be its lows - lets hope this friday another rumour re a merger begins?
> 
> ...




Sorry about that. 

It happens on the web sometimes. Unfortunately there's no sarcasm or tongue-in-cheek button on the keyboard so it's hard to tell. I think both ZFX and SDL are both decent shares but for different reasons.

Good luck with you also.


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## tronic72 (20 December 2007)

Just a quick update

Sold ZFX today and bought ANZ. But I am looking at SDL again. This is where I saw it dropping. That was the point I was trying to make. I thought SDL would continue to slide. It's down 20% from last week and it GS's recommendation I think SDL represents even better value at these prices.


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## tronic72 (20 December 2007)

waterford said:


> Did I say I didn't make assumptions? Don't think so!
> 
> There was no intention on my part to harm anyone, if any investor out there is running off to buy SDL share on my posting then they are a tad foolish, not even I, a dumb beginner would do that!
> 
> ...




Waterford,

Just read your post. I see you are new here so I thought I'd make a suggestion. Your post is obviously in response to someone else's post. Just a tip, when doing this, it's a good idea to press the "quote" button instead of the reply button. That way we know who you are talking too.

Good luck with your trading.

PS I know we could sift through the past posts to try and figure it out but it's much easier if you quote the original post.


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## nikki (20 December 2007)

hi Tronic72,

sorry if you took a loss on ZFX - i still think it is one of those really undervalued stock with everything going for it in the long run!!!

re SDL - i think it presents value @ .4 but for several reasons i would not enter the trade for short term @ the moment:

- no expected news except drilling results which will get released @ end of january in the quarterly report.
- JORC not due until middle of next year
- the risk of a further move down to 6000 (or below) for XJO and XAO is high and SDL will follow without news comming out. the drivers for the move down in the indexes might not be the financials but perhaps BHP/RIO. BHP has now broken $40 and might go further and take other mining stocks with it (mining index looks seriously bruised but with nothing to suggest that the downward move is not going to continue - esp. if copper is breaking support levels).

if you look at the date that institutions (Sarich and Talbot) bought into SDL @ 0.4 you will notice it was straight after the first time that SDL resisted going below 0.4 - i.e. not a real test of 0.4 if you ask me. obviously management convinced them that 0.4 was good value and support.

institutions could not have bought that many SDL shares @ 0.4 without running the SP up significantly. given the number they were buying it was good value for them at that time - Talbot has not managed to buy too many in the low 0.4's because buying millions kept pushing the price upwards of 0.5.

i think the interest @ 0.4 (or high 0.3 is huge) but if it goes lower all those holding huge quantities from earlier this year will start selling and taking the SP with them - this move could be significant IMO given the number of shares on offer (esp. when traders were buying them @ 0.1-0.2 not long ago). given that you can CFD the stock with 10% margin you will also have people shorting it once it goes below support @ 0.38 taking the SP with it.

the RSI has actually gone up since the other day when it hit 0.4 meaning that it is now not as oversold as it was a few days ago. if it continues to consolidate around 0.4 then the potential to go lower increases esp. if the indexes correct further.

re the trading in the past few days: small buyers (i.e. in the 100,000) were comming back in. i suspect many of these are people who sold in the low 40's (esp. when it went down to 0.39) and now think they did the wrong thing and are trying to buy back in - esp. when the stock hit 0.43 the other day. i.e. big money has shown no interest in SDL @ the moment @ these prices.

two factors suggesting that an entry might be good @ the moment:
- asx200 listing might create interest, esp. if one or two bigger players buy upwards of 1 million shares. this in itself will manipulate the SP so people will think something is happening!
- the Goldman Sachs report clearly makes SDL seem like it is value for money (in the short and long term) if you compare it to other ASX200 listed iron ore companies.

now, if the SP goes up to 0.5 in the next day & you chose not to enter the trade then blame it on DYOR clause in this note 

i am going to sit on the sidelines - i have made and lost truckloads on SDL and am sure of one thing by now: if i can buy 300,000 of them @ $0.17 i might hold onto them for a few months longer than the last time i had them @ that price.

cheers


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## nikki (21 December 2007)

my assessment of SDl's listing as a ASX200 stock was totally ****!!!!!!!! did anyone see the closing auction today - that was beyond spectaculor??? i have watched the closing auction for this stock for the past 6 months and have never seen anything like this?

over 14.5 million stocks changed hands at the close with 1 buyer bidding for 4.5 million stocks???????

maybe i will buy back in @ .5 tommorrowwwwwwwwww - sore head?>>> outchchchchchhchcch . . . . . . . . . . .


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## daggs (21 December 2007)

I was watching at close too, that sure was something else!
The thing that I couln't understand was that there was a huge amount of of orders on both sides. Definitly something going on, but why so many sell orders in the mix?
Oh well, should spark some interest Monday anyhow


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## nikki (21 December 2007)

hi daggs,

i thought the same - i.e. why all the selling given the rest of the days action!!! there was 1 person who sold over 5 million? surely if you have that many you would not be selling @ .43 when you could clearly see the interest from buyers??????

looked a bit like telstra shares during closing auction?

there was an after market sale of 7.8 million as well. it must be the same broker doing a cross trade or something?????


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## daggs (21 December 2007)

I wondered the same thing about cross trades, but I would have thought there are better ways for these deals to take shape other than a closing auction, then there,s those three buyers left over wanting 1.7mil shares.

A "please explain" from the ASX followed by a trading halt on Monday would see a smile on my face


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## nikki (22 December 2007)

ok. my theory about friday's closing auction!

those who were shorting the market were forced to reveal themselves because those who were ready to push up looked like they were going to win?

i was wondering what the strong resistance was when the stock looked like it was going to go up above .42 - if you have bought 5 million sdl going short then clearly you will sell enough at .42 to keep reinforcing the resistance and try to get rid of stock at around .4 or lower if you can. this explains why someone would suddenly dump a stack of sdl at .405 or .4. it explains why the sp managed to stay at around .405 even though the overall market had gone up 1% by midday? 

so, the trend has clearly turned around because a huge number of holders are going long and they will do whatever they can to push the sp up as far as they can - i.e. buy more when it matters or counts. i also assume that if the index has reversed trend then the automated computer buying of asx200 stocks will reinforce the move upwards from monday onwards?

the volume was too high for insiders trading on news of some kind (IMO obviously). also the after market trading was portfolio swaps which looks more like short swapping with longs, etc.

so, if i am right i cannot believe how stupid i was not to buy when the overall index had changed trend but SDL was still testing its 0.4 support? 

merry christmas to anyone who has read this far?


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## nikki (22 December 2007)

nikki said:


> my assessment of SDl's listing as a ASX200 stock was totally ****!!!!!!!! did anyone see the closing auction today - that was beyond spectaculor??? i have watched the closing auction for this stock for the past 6 months and have never seen anything like this?
> 
> over 14.5 million stocks changed hands at the close with 1 buyer bidding for 4.5 million stocks???????
> 
> maybe i will buy back in @ .5 tommorrowwwwwwwwww - sore head?>>> outchchchchchhchcch . . . . . . . . . . .




does this forum have an automatic editing mechanism.

i had actually spelled out S**H**I**T but it was replaced by ****. hold on, i will try again: ****
wow - it did it again. how cool - my language is automatically cleaned


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## tronic72 (23 December 2007)

nikki said:


> does this forum have an automatic editing mechanism.
> 
> i had actually spelled out S**H**I**T but it was replaced by ****. hold on, i will try again: ****
> wow - it did it again. how cool - my language is automatically cleaned




Glad I bought in at .40  I read all your reasons for NOT buying but I purchased anyway. Personally I think you over complicated things. .43 is still a decent price. I might put another buy in at .42 for Monday

My reason for buying was the share has dropped 20% over the past week and I saw no reason for the SDL slump to continue after the market turned around. Same company and keep in mind the recent GS buy recommendation with a 12 month forcast around $1. Remember, this share was at .6 only a month ago. That's a 5o% decrease in the share price.

I purchased for a short term profit only. Hopefull I'll get my 15% next week.

Merry Christmas.


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## nikki (23 December 2007)

good call tronic72. 

i agree about the over-complicated analysis but that was to justify for myself why a move downwards was strongly possible if the XJO and XAO kept correcting.

unfortunately, i was not paying attention to the overall market to notice the huge surge of buying interest on friday afternoon. i would have bought in as well if i was a bit more on the ball. instead i busy swearing at the ADY sp that goes down when the market is going up and surges up when the market goes down 

i suspect it might open @ .45 or higher on monday and if i am lucky there might be some few million sellers around who might still have to sell shorts or something !!!!

merry christmas to you as well.


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## tronic72 (23 December 2007)

nikki said:


> good call tronic72.
> 
> i agree about the over-complicated analysis but that was to justify for myself why a move downwards was strongly possible if the XJO and XAO kept correcting.
> 
> ...




I "hope" you are right about the open but I'd be surprised if it goes up much higher than that and I wouldnt be surprised if it dropped during the day. That would be about 15% in two days which is a pretty big rise without any drops. Even at .45 it's still an OK buy compared to two months ago.

Good luck.


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## Real1ty (23 December 2007)

I have not read all of this thread so aplogies if this has been covered already.

Wasn't the .65c or whatever it;s high was when it was discussing a merger with GBG?

If so, it would be very realistic for it's share price to drop.

I only bring this up as in a lot of comments i have noted on SDL people always refer to it's high, but it's high is not a likely outcome atm, as there is little to drive the price.

If you want to make a comparison check CFE and the price during and after a Chinese investor was supposedly going to input 280Mill.

I don't hold atm, but do follow the stock, as it's an intriguing stock.


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## Miner (24 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I "hope" you are right about the open but I'd be surprised if it goes up much higher than that and I wouldnt be surprised if it dropped during the day. That would be about 15% in two days which is a pretty big rise without any drops. Even at .45 it's still an OK buy compared to two months ago.
> 
> Good luck.




Dear Nikki and Tronic 72 

Could you please throw some light considering in Christmas Day all get light of wisdom : what made you think that SDL will go up by 15% on Monday ? 
I think the whole SDL was trying to take ladder through GBG and as I have posted before some one was cooking with low kilo joule gas to ignite stock fire. There were some smoke but now it was a false smoke with no heat. It has now left the meat uncooked, rotten and smelly. Unfortunately like many of us I also bought at 39.5 cents of thsi raw meat thinking it was fresh venison which appears to be CAT food.

Regards


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## tronic72 (24 December 2007)

Miner said:


> Dear Nikki and Tronic 72
> 
> Could you please throw some light considering in Christmas Day all get light of wisdom : what made you think that SDL will go up by 15% on Monday ?
> I think the whole SDL was trying to take ladder through GBG and as I have posted before some one was cooking with low kilo joule gas to ignite stock fire. There were some smoke but now it was a false smoke with no heat. It has now left the meat uncooked, rotten and smelly. Unfortunately like many of us I also bought at 39.5 cents of thsi raw meat thinking it was fresh venison which appears to be CAT food.
> ...




I think you misunderstood me Miner. 

I meant that if it goes up to .45 on Monday, the stock would have gone up about 15% since Friday morning (7.5 on Friday and 7.5 on Monday), which as you know is a pretty steep rise. I'm happy to cut and run if it does. Considering the large purchase at the close on Friday it's reasonable to assume that there will be a lot of interest in the stock on Monday. 

PS Your "meat" example is the worst analolgy I've ever heard used lol.


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## nikki (24 December 2007)

what on earth are you talking about miner? 

SDL closed @ .4 on thursday so a close of .43 on friday gave it a 7.5% rise. The surge in interest in SDL without any news, etc. was most interesting. 1.7 million shares @ .43 were not hit on friday and are still sitting there.

So, an open of .45 is possible today?

I agree re anything about .6 was due to merger news - with so many shares on issues i would be surprised if it went higher on a technical bounce.


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## tronic72 (27 December 2007)

nikki said:


> what on earth are you talking about miner?
> 
> SDL closed @ .4 on thursday so a close of .43 on friday gave it a 7.5% rise. The surge in interest in SDL without any news, etc. was most interesting. 1.7 million shares @ .43 were not hit on friday and are still sitting there.
> 
> ...




Thanks Nikki. I re-read my post half a dozen times and it made sense to me. 7.5 (day one) + 7.5 (day two) = 15%!!! 

I think miner thought I meant 15% in one day.


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## Miner (9 January 2008)

Hi SDL Pundits, Nikki and Tronic 72 

What do you think happening at SDL. There is an abnormal dive in the share price ?
Could some one please post their analysis ? I was so happy to recommend my young son for this share to put his investment. Seeing the downtrend  now it has crossed the bottom level unless sinks further.

Regards


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## tronic72 (9 January 2008)

Miner said:


> Hi SDL Pundits, Nikki and Tronic 72
> 
> What do you think happening at SDL. There is an abnormal dive in the share price ?
> Could some one please post their analysis ? I was so happy to recommend my young son for this share to put his investment. Seeing the downtrend  now it has crossed the bottom level unless sinks further.
> ...




Hi Miner,

The market is VERY jumpy at the moment. It only needs a sniff of something for the big boys to jump off. 

I can't see the reason for todays slide so I assume it may be some sort of fundamental reason. etrade don't have any new news. Maybe someone inside knows something.

From what I can see the dive happened after the close. This may be something as simple as an institution that was going to sell today no matter what. 

For what it's worth. If i had to predict, given the lack of fundamental evidence, I'd say the share price will bounce back tomorrow at least half as much as today's drop. I'll be having it in my watch list as a stock to purchase.

Thanks for the heads up, I hadn't noticed the drop as it happened after the close.

T


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## winsol (9 January 2008)

I was watching this closely as I had a big buy in at 36.5

at 4.03 someone put a sell of 1,300,000 shares at 36.5 and then took it out almost as quickly - presumably to see what impact their order would have.

I then watched even closer. at 4.09 they put it in again - I was a coward and took my buy out (I had the cancel all ready to go in case they came in).  With time to reflect I think I was wrong.  I agree, it will bounce back at least half tomorrow.


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## nikki (9 January 2008)

Hi all, 

I cannot see how the drop is linked to the fundamentals of SDL - we are no smarter about anything (maybe that is the problem)!

GBG also dropped to $1 (0.99). Like SDL it has not released any news for a long time and is now 1/2 the value from its high. I am still suspicious about the way their SP are still moving in close correlation to each other. Maybe just a coincidence.

the significant drop at the close yesterday was because of the 1.3 million share placement @ the closing auction. otherwise, the stock would have closed @ 0.38/.385 which would have been the next support point from 0.365. this seller appeared at the opening auction as well and so i suspect they were shorting the market and were spooking it to get the best result.

personally, i would look for a few things re short term SP movement: if SP closes above or @ .365 it might be safe to call a potential upward move back to low .4's where its home is for the short term. this is most likely if DJIA does not break 12750-12800 and XJO does not break 6100 support levels. If the indexes break support we might see a true retracement back to .295 where SDL hit during the August 2007 correction .

the problem is, without any expectation of news until the end of January (quarterly report) and March (possible resource estimate if drilling has gone ok) many will sit back and look for absolute bargains in SP to invest in SDL or get some short term gains trading it.


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## tronic72 (9 January 2008)

After yet another decline on Wall St I think the stock may not even get back half of the yesterdays lost. When I posted that I thought it would regain at least half of yesterdays loss, the Dow was .5% up. I've just woke up and the Dow is 1.45% DOWN & NASDAQ is 1.65% down.

Will be putting in sells ASAP this morning as I don't think the decline is over.

For the record I don't think this is an indication of stocks such as SDL, rather an indication of the Markets nervousness.

Gold and Energy seems the only sure bet at the moment.


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## tronic72 (9 January 2008)

Just bought at .355 This is nearly a third of the recent GS 12 month price. I think this is real value for money


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## Miner (9 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Just bought at .355 This is nearly a third of the recent GS 12 month price. I think this is real value for money




mama mia and thanks for your quick response.
I however did not see any technical chart this time from any one on SDL and suggest that we are all like 6 blind persons and the elephant trying to describe an elephant.
I was wondering Tronic72 that in between three hours you said SELL and then bought the share at a low price.
I would rather watch and see how is DJ sliding . 
Thanks for your input.

Regards


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## nikki (9 January 2008)

Miner said:


> mama mia and thanks for your quick response.
> I however did not see any technical chart this time from any one on SDL and suggest that we are all like 6 blind persons and the elephant trying to describe an elephant.
> I was wondering Tronic72 that in between three hours you said SELL and then bought the share at a low price.
> I would rather watch and see how is DJ sliding .
> ...




good call tronic72. i am trying to set up my etrade account to CFD SDL b/c i do not have access to any more cash. i would have bought at the open today if i had some money. SDL's opening drops on panic mornings like today are usually significant. if it does not manage a close @ or above .365 i would personally look for further retracement because it might be using the close of yesterday as resistance. i doubt that will be a problem with the way it is going today.

miner, i am using charts, etc. but am not particularly good posting them. its RSI yesterday was one of the lowest for SDL. also, it will need to break .38/.385 resistance for an upward move to .4. however, all this is meaningless  if your time frame is 1 year.

cheers to all,


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## tronic72 (9 January 2008)

Miner said:


> mama mia and thanks for your quick response.
> I however did not see any technical chart this time from any one on SDL and suggest that we are all like 6 blind persons and the elephant trying to describe an elephant.
> I was wondering Tronic72 that in between three hours you said SELL and then bought the share at a low price.
> I would rather watch and see how is DJ sliding .
> ...




The stock dropped nearly 10% yesterday morning then dropped a further 4% (I think from memory) That's 15% in 24 hours!! I got in at .355 which means if the stock rebounds to the price it was 24 hours ago I'll make a 14% profit in 48 hours. Even half that will be fine. I'll already up as the price is now at .365

Time will tell.


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## Miner (10 January 2008)

winsol said:


> I was watching this closely as I had a big buy in at 36.5
> 
> at 4.03 someone put a sell of 1,300,000 shares at 36.5 and then took it out almost as quickly - presumably to see what impact their order would have.
> 
> I then watched even closer. at 4.09 they put it in again - I was a coward and took my buy out (I had the cancel all ready to go in case they came in).  With time to reflect I think I was wrong.  I agree, it will bounce back at least half tomorrow.




Yes, some one has been artificially jacking up. I have noticed there is always a very high volume (One million and above) buy order at significant lower level. It is probably a trick played by any of the favourable broker. Once the price approaches the lower value the big order vanishes. It is an artificial support level and for last few months I have noticed but expressing myself on this particular observation first time seeing your post.

Regards


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## sundancekid (14 January 2008)

Please excuse my lack of knoweldege as I am new to shares and this is my first post.

Can someone please help explain how this stock was recently at $0.60 and now its at or below $0.30 without any significant announcements by the company? Unfortuantely I have all my eggs in this basket banghead and I know I should not have done this but does anyone feel this will go back to around $0.50 within the next 6 months?

I would really appreciate any further information on this stock and about metal resource stocks in general.

Thanks


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## stormbringer (14 January 2008)

I've been watching SDL for a while now, first spotted it at .07 and was very interested in it. Didn't get on though due to lack of funds and thought I’d missed the boat, but after seeing the sp decline over the last couple of weeks I'm thinking I've been given a second chance. I'm very surprised by the amount it has dropped though, as are all who are holding I guess, and with the initial resource estimate not due for several weeks, there maybe more downside to come. Still, it's potential is huge and worthy of a small investment, and if the slide continues, I'll probably buy in a little more. It would be nice to hold until they have completed the entire 500-600 drilling programme.
Sorry guy's, no real news for you in my post, just showing my support for the project, GL all


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## tronic72 (14 January 2008)

sundancekid said:


> Please excuse my lack of knoweldege as I am new to shares and this is my first post.
> 
> Can someone please help explain how this stock was recently at $0.60 and now its at or below $0.30 without any significant announcements by the company? Unfortuantely I have all my eggs in this basket banghead and I know I should not have done this but does anyone feel this will go back to around $0.50 within the next 6 months?
> 
> ...




Hi Kid,

I've gotta say I think it's a crazy move to put all your eggs into a stock like Sundance. It's REALLY important you understand the SDL is a HIGH RISK - SPECULATIVE stock. The company won't product a single grain of iron ore for years. 

It's because the stock IS high Risk and IS speculative that it tends to have higher highs and lower lows. The market has been very shaky since November last year and Investors have been expecting a correction or even a dive so when things happen they happen in a big way. Investors take the view "better the devil you know" so they tend to lean towards more secure stocks like energy and gold.

That said, I've purchased SDL at 39.5 today so I'm wrapped. My advice is to sell part of your holding in SDL and diversify more. That may not be an option if you purchased near the recent highs in which case all you can do is wait it out.

I still believe in SDL. Hope this helps.


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## sundancekid (14 January 2008)

Thanks for the reply, since the amount I invested wasn't that much (compared to most investors) and in order to get any real return I did take the risk with Sundance knowing with some knowledge of being a speculative stock. If the stock goes back up to around $0.42~$0.50 I will sell otherwise I think i'm in for a long time and not a good time . Hopefully we're not talking years?????

Tronic72,,hopefully you purchased at $0.295 and not $0.395!


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## stormbringer (14 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Hi Kid,
> 
> I've gotta say I think it's a crazy move to put all your eggs into a stock like Sundance. It's REALLY important you understand the SDL is a HIGH RISK - SPECULATIVE stock. The company won't product a single grain of iron ore for years.
> 
> ...




I agree with you m8. At the same time I can understand why some people would plough their couple of grand into 1 particular stock, given that spreading it out appears to be a fruitless task, but for this to work you need to be 110% confident in your stock selection, and as my earlier post suggests, SDL in my humble opinion is a great stock to be holding over the next 12-18months. I'd even suggest taking a second bight at the cherry if your funds allow you, giving you a better dollar average, but dyor before hand. After absorbing the many different views on the subject, the first half of 08 look like being very volatile, but towards the end of the year, we may see a turn around, just my opinion, no real tech analysis to support this view. But in saying that, be prepared for a rocky ride through 08 in general, and maybe change your time frame allowing the sp to recover as we approach 09. GL to all investors, regardless of the stocks your holding


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## spottygoose (14 January 2008)

It shouldn't be years as you should know one way or the other which way the SP is heading within weeks. The market will be updated soon at least via the quarterly.

As to the current SP as *far as we know* nothing has changed except global market sentiment. People need cash and SDL has been making slow progress and is a *high risk stock*. However, there may be reasons aside from this for the decline in SP ie things the general market may not know and somone else does eg delays in drilling, problems dealing with Cameroon Gov.

One would think that if the above was the case we would have had some sort of announcement so therefore my money is lying with the fact the general *market is dodgy* and that SDL is a *spec* stock and is slow at delivering updates.

So bascially in the words of Manuel "we know nothing" so my suggestion Sundance Kid is to either wait for the next update, try ringing the company or make your own decision now as to whether you think someone knows something negative or alternatively the co is being punished for being slow to progress and a more risky stock in a volatile market.

Personally, I am holding and waiting for the next update and if all is good there we should see the SP head back over 50c quick smart, that 50c being the price many brokers have issued their buy recommendations at.

Good luck hope it works out for us all.


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## spottygoose (14 January 2008)

This is from Risso (on another site) he emailed SDL on Friday:


"Thank you for your email. As I,m sure you are aware the wider Australian market has been quite severely affected by the events in the US regarding the sub-prime lending market and this has had a negative effect on Sundance as well as many other companies.

From an operational perspective nothing has really changed in the past several months. We are continuing with our resource drilling program on the Mbalam project in Cameroon. We have commissioned additional rigs and hope to have those on site and operating in early February. Some drilling results will be contained the December quarterly report due out in late January while we are also still targeting to have some resource estimate released in the first half of this year. 

I hope this helps but please feel free to remain in touch."


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## tronic72 (14 January 2008)

sundancekid;Thanks for the reply, since the amount I invested wasn't that much (compared to most investors) and in order to get any real return I did take the risk with Sundance knowing with some knowledge of being a speculative stock. If the stock goes back up to around $0.42~$0.50 I will sell otherwise I think i'm in for a long time and not a good time . Hopefully we're not talking years?????

Tronic72,,hopefully you purchased at $0.295 and not $0.395![/QUOTE]

Yup. Purchased 10K worth @ .295


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## nikki (15 January 2008)

sorry to say this everyone, but, i am out of SDL. i am sure i will trade it again but for the moment i am taking my investments out of it. what is happening with the SP is more than just change in sentiment IMO.

someone with a lot of shares must be dumping the stock and i have no idea why? the selling interest is too aggresive and i cannot understand why that might be the case. 

sorry! to those of you who are read this thread know that i would not be downramping and please do your own research and do not use my negative sentiment as anything other than my expression of dissappointment in not stopping my losses earlier.


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## sundancekid (15 January 2008)

Lucky stocks can only go to $0.00 otherwise I think this stock would go into the minus :swear: Why oh why!!


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## mayk (15 January 2008)

I just hope it will go back up. I bought it at .8  Then I started accumulating it, at bad times too.... 

Now I really hate this stock... Some results announcement was due for this stock, does anyone know anything about that.

GBG is recovering strongly today...


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## hoppielimp (15 January 2008)

I'm out too mid 30's....was in between 60-80 cents..decided that maybe with the credit crunch hanging around, lending is going to be thin on the ground and borrowing expensive for explorers.

I am tempted to re-enter, but as nikki said there seems to be selling pressure from somewhere.  I will sit on the fence for now and lick my wounds


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## grubadoo (15 January 2008)

In at .26 out at .26

Is it me or does the chart look like the big dipper.

Greed, and anticipation kept me there. Although 0.88 looked like it wasn't enough.


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## gilbo (15 January 2008)

I know it's tough - watching the SP tank to 24c this afternoon was certainly character building - but we should try & remember the reasons for investing in SDL.

There is a real possibility that they are sitting on a significant iron ore deposit and nothing has changed in that regard in the last few weeks (well, at least nothing I'm aware of). It's just in a thin volume, nervous market these sort of stocks get hit hardest.

(At least that's my reason to invest in SDL - can't speak on behalf of any chartists out there!)

Mind you, another afternoon like today might just do me in......!


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## Lucky_Country (15 January 2008)

This is going take along time too repair the damage done too the sp.
Production years away and drilling could take some time but all could be rewarded if patient enough too wait.


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## Real1ty (15 January 2008)

I think the nest batch of Change to holdings announcements is going to determine where the sp goes.

One would have to guess, and that's all it is on my part, that with the amount of downward pressure on the sp at reasonable volume would indicate some quite large holders unloading.(Do they know something you don't?)

Depending on who it is unloading will be important.

They might also include some drilling results in the quarterly reports, due out soonish.


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## shaunnell (15 January 2008)

Say there is a bad news announcement soon, surely the seller could be had up for insider trading?  Could he/they be reported to ASIC?


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## nikki (15 January 2008)

i am not sure that one can conclude that today's selling pressure is linked to bad news. i know sdl is behind schedule on a number of things but this would not be reason enough for such a massive sell-off.

it is possible that a couple or more traders have seriously manipulated the stock with shorts and have used the current market sentiments to do this. look at the other iron ore's with less liquidity. they have not been battered in the same way? i.e. not a sector wide phenomena.

i noticed that the buying from .24 - .265 towards the end of the day was just as aggressive as the selling at the beginning of the day. there were around 10 1 million + share purchases in a very short time. it was controlled around the .27 by someone and it did not hammer properly???? it could all be normal trading but ??????

i wonder if this will take SDL off the ASX200. if so, get ready for some more selling???

i know why i got into SDL  i still believe in the project  but i now have my doubts about a stock that has 1.8 billion shares on offer . look at DMM as a an alternative. it is like watching grass grow and boy does it look greener on the other side. 

buy for now?


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## mayk (16 January 2008)

Traditionaly SDL has announced their drilling results etc. in their quaterly reports. So I guess in line with their traditional policy , they will announce some results in two weeks ( when the report is due..). 

I think Tablot might be lowering his percentage in the company ( currentlly 19%). We might see a major shareholder change announcement in a day or two. Some speculation is that he might be doing it so that his chinese friends can get chucks of SDL at a lower price. Around 60 million shares were traded yesterday, seems to me big players at work...

G/l to holders


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## J.C. (16 January 2008)

Hi Mayk, do you have a more specific timeframe for the quarterly report? I know you said within 2 weeks but is any more solid info available? thanks!


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## sundancekid (16 January 2008)

Appears to be holding out so far despite real bad results on the Dow. Could this be the turning point?


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## Goldmann (16 January 2008)

Starting watching this thread yesterday when i was searching for info online on why SDL was getting hammered... so yeah, i am new to this forum so hello... 

I bought in at .39 (at that stage thought I was getting a bargain) and it has been a nervous couple of days... 

However!  it seems to have turned the corner briefly.  

At 12 noon (in Qld anyway) all ords down 135pts, yet at this stage SDL is up 13% on massive trade (50mil)... every other stock on my watchlist is getting hammered, but SDL is going the other way... would of been good to get some more at 24.5 I am thinking...

Its all very weird though... starting to wonder why I even bought SDL when my tactic of acquiring as many gold stocks as I could was starting to reap rewards... but the upside seemed pretty good, and their seemed alot of support for SDL around .4 previously... not out of the woods yet...


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## mayk (16 January 2008)

Hi Mayk, do you have a more specific timeframe for the quarterly report? I know you said within 2 weeks but is any more solid info available? thanks!


Someone on another forum called SDL and asked them when the report is due they gave him a two week timeframe. You can also give them a call if you want to know the exact date.


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## wildmanchris (16 January 2008)

I was thinking of picking up a parcel when it was at 24 yesterday but decided against it.  Havent really followed it at all.

When the merger with GBG went off the boil - the price started heading way down.  Was there any other reason that this came down so much?


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## mayk (16 January 2008)

SDL ended in a positive note today. It is good news, I guess people have started to realize the potential in this stock. In a falling market this kind of rise shows strength. It also predicts some good results in the quaterly reports. 

Or I can be entirely wrong and it might be one last  sucker rally on its way down to .17 support level ( I hope it never goes there or I will be complete broke....). If the rise continues tomorrow then we might expect some good news in the report. But I don't think in current bear market good results will have a strong impact. We can wait and see..


On a side note GBG struggled to keep up with its yesterday's recovery. I hope this does not happen with SDL , as this stock is also clouded with geo-political consideration and gets hammered more than GBG (Or anyother local iron ore player.) If there will be one more green day in the next two days it might also indicate a potential breakout ( though highly unlikely in current scenario..)


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## Goldmann (16 January 2008)

Well - all of us holding will atleast rest a little easier tonight knowing that it didnt drop another 10% today... espcially with the market being smashed...

it was the only green light in a sea of red for me today..... gold stocks took a particular beating... but tomorrow is a new day...


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## LRG (16 January 2008)

There is support for this one.  I was hoping it would go lower to buy more and get my average price down from 45 cents.

Oh well no luck. Suspect it is back on the up unless bad news comes.


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## tronic72 (16 January 2008)

I won't buy this share again. 

What happened over the past few days is simply unbelievable and I'll be very surprised if the ASX don't issue two "please explains" to SDL for the recent share price movement. 

This is not the first time this share has been "messed with". Yet another example of the Fat Pigs getting fatter through Market manipulation.


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## sundancekid (17 January 2008)

LRG said:


> There is support for this one.  I was hoping it would go lower to buy more and get my average price down from 45 cents.
> 
> Oh well no luck. Suspect it is back on the up unless bad news comes.




You should be glad I bought some at 53 and 43, i think my average is around 52!!!!!!!!!! but as soon a it goes back into the 40's (fingers crossed)..I'm gone and shall not trade this stock again.

Didn't someone recently rate this stock a buy before it started sliding down to $0.26


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## wildmanchris (17 January 2008)

There was a report in October that put a valuation on it at $1.00!!!   Be interesting to see what the annual report shows


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## Sean K (17 January 2008)

LRG said:


> There is support for this one.  I was hoping it would go lower to buy more and get my average price down from 45 cents.
> 
> Oh well no luck. Suspect it is back on the up unless bad news comes.



Check what it did in mid Nov before jumping to any conclusions. 

Unfortunate for you guys who have held on though this. If you sell at a loss, take the positive that it's a tax loss learning experience. Good luck in whatever you do.


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## tronic72 (17 January 2008)

"Didn't someone recently rate this stock a buy before it started sliding down to $0.26"

Sure did. GS gave it a buy with a 1 year price of nearly $1!!!!


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## Miner (17 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> "Didn't someone recently rate this stock a buy before it started sliding down to $0.26"
> 
> Sure did. GS gave it a buy with a 1 year price of nearly $1!!!!




The report is probably in SDL website unless withdrawn. I wrote an open letter to the broker to come out with his facts. He did not have iron bxxls to even respond. It is no surprise that speculative explorers always 'commission' brokers to write good reports about them. Some good brokers do declare that they were commissioned some do not.
Only solace we could have seeing today's market and considering those who were recommended for CNP at $8 only a couple of months back.
Regards


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## LRG (19 January 2008)

I'm not going to buy any more, but there are some smart people and big money behind this.  they don't like losing so i will hold for the long term.  in 2012 if you still have them i suspect you will do pretty well or; you could have lost all your cash too i suppose????:


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## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> I won't buy this share again.
> 
> What happened over the past few days is simply unbelievable and I'll be very surprised if the ASX don't issue two "please explains" to SDL for the recent share price movement.
> 
> This is not the first time this share has been "messed with". Yet another example of the Fat Pigs getting fatter through Market manipulation.




Evening Tronic

Wondering what your reasoning behind your comments re the sp manipulation of SDL was?  Not saying you're wrong, but would be interested to hear your logic. Particularly heavy trading volumes Jan 15-16th I see.

Cheers jman

Disclaimer: DNH


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## Miner (20 January 2008)

I have noticed there is always a supporting level of more than million shares of SDL at few cents below the asking buy price in Commsec. Strangely those buy volume always disappear just before the selling price approaches the buying price.
I have attached as it appears in COmmsec. I will be surprised to see the rice is holding as per buy order. It is not one day's picture many days you would notice the same story.
Of course I am not raising any doubt but making an observation. Like many I do like to see my investment in sDl to become black from red 

Cheers


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## jman2007 (20 January 2008)

Miner said:


> I have noticed there is always a supporting level of more than million shares of SDL at few cents below the asking buy price in Commsec. Strangely those buy volume always disappear just before the selling price approaches the buying price.
> I have attached as it appears in COmmsec. I will be surprised to see the rice is holding as per buy order. It is not one day's picture many days you would notice the same story.
> Of course I am not raising any doubt but making an observation. Like many I do like to see my investment in sDl to become black from red
> 
> Cheers




Miner,

I've had a look at your attachment, are you referring to the two parcels of buy orders at 25 and 26c respectively?  I don't think on Commsec you can see each buy order individually, the only way you could tell if a massive order was withdrawn would be to do a before and after comparison of  # buyers vs # shares at that price. I cannot see a major advantage to pulling out a massive buy order as the selling price approaches, unless of course the buy order came back in at an even lower level.

jman


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## Miner (20 January 2008)

Thanks Jman
Where do I find more ? individual large parcel orders in that case ?
Notwithstanding I would also visit Bell Potter site and see if thereis something available too
Regards


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## sundancekid (22 January 2008)

Looks like SDL is taking an ar5e pounding (excuse my French). Now the stock is worth as much as my comment


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## nikkothescorpio (22 January 2008)

Thank goodness I was stopped out of SDL a month or so ago - down 50% from my 77c entry.

Hasta la vista $12,500 that was.


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## LRG (22 January 2008)

i hope this comes good in the next few weeks.  what a fall....... un believable
back to 50c please
not happy jan!


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## daggs (29 January 2008)

What's everyone's take on the new report?
Seems positive overall IMO, Resource definition was on the lower end of my expectation, but with 5 new rigs being added soon and  a new prospect identified (70m strike) I am confident this should progress well this year.

The new Itabrite hematite discovery (to depths of 400m!) could be a major positive in the long term viability of the project. Will be very interesting to see how this progresses in coming years.

I topped up last week before this report and will continue to hold. still down overall but I believe it will be a good year for SDL.


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## tronic72 (29 January 2008)

I can see still more downside for SDL. 

It's a long term speculative share. I've no doubt it will do good things in the long term but with the current market conditions, SDL is the kind of company that can take a real hammering. 

If I was long term on SDL I'd buy at current prices and simply wait. The other option is to "watch this space" and jump in when the share tumbles. I've made a few quick profits on the dip with SDL. Personally, I don't like the recent action on SDL as I think someone/institution was playing "funny buggers" with the share. I lost 5K in 2 days during those "funny buggers" and vowed not to buy again.

Watching SDL in the current market climate will just give you a ulcer.


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## daggs (29 January 2008)

Looks like the market might agree tronic.
will be interesting to see what happens tommorow once the report has been studied though.
We might need a green day for the dow to help it along a bit.



tronic72 said:


> Personally, I don't like the recent action on SDL as I think someone/institution was playing "funny buggers" with the share. I lost 5K in 2 days during those "funny buggers" and vowed not to buy again.
> 
> Watching SDL in the current market climate will just give you a ulcer.




There's been plenty of institutional support for SDL well above current SP and the general outlook for IO has improved since then. There's no price movement on the chart that can't be expained with recent events relating to Gindalbie or general market sentiment.


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## tronic72 (29 January 2008)

daggs said:


> Looks like the market might agree tronic.
> will be interesting to see what happens tommorow once the report has been studied though.
> We might need a green day for the dow to help it along a bit.
> 
> ...




I agree with your point about the institutions. I'm beginning to think SDL might be the BOL of 08. The stock that everyone recommended but no one wants. I think we'll be up if the US has a good one tonight but Bush's address didn't give me a lot of confidence. If I wasn't sitting on a bargain basement portfolio at the moment I'd have been tempted to exit all my positions today as I think the market will react to the lack of certainty.


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## sundancekid (30 January 2008)

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=45397&sn=Detail

I'm guessing this is good???


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## spottygoose (30 January 2008)

All good kid. Very good announcement it is just a shame the market is still a bit spooked with the specs. Still a way to go on this one but based on yesterday's announcement it should soon start to move back to fairer value. HOpefully, a few broker updates are around the corner and as drilling has proceeded there should be no reason for them not to still be targeting their calls of 70c and $1.


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## spottygoose (30 January 2008)

Thanks to Gasman9 for this:

Goldman Sachs gave Sundance Resc a BIG tick this morning, reiterated BUY recommendation following yesterday's 2Q Production Report. 

"No change to positive view."

12 month price target $0.70


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## Goldmann (31 January 2008)

I hate this stock... every day i look to it with a slight hope of a rebound... but nothing... thinking of putting a bullet in it...


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## tronic72 (31 January 2008)

spottygoose said:


> Thanks to Gasman9 for this:
> 
> Goldman Sachs gave Sundance Resc a BIG tick this morning, reiterated BUY recommendation following yesterday's 2Q Production Report.
> 
> ...




I think it's important to remember that no matter what the recommendation, it's still speculative and it's share price pretty much rides on the back of the big guys such as BHP, RIO etc. Being spec means there's even less rhyme or reason for it's current price. 

If you are long term on SDL just buy it and turn off your PC otherwise you'll get an Ulcer.


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## LRG (4 February 2008)

It seemed to have a lot better day today with volume of 31 Mill and up 3.5 cents to 29 cents.  Lets hope it will not need to test the lows again of the last 2 weeks.  

We need to wait for more news as it will take years for this coy to go into production.  I agree just hold and check the price every 6 months or so.

I suspect it will be volatile as it is highly speculative even given the high market cap and the key players who are share holders.


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## Shane (5 February 2008)

Hi guys, First time to site. Thought you'd all be interested in this
For all of you in Australia tonight on sky business news, FOXTEL Ch 602 between 7-8PM AEDT they will be answering a question I asked them last week by email on SDL. 

Hi,
I would like to know the thoughts of analysts on Sundance Resources SDL. They have recently reported 2Q and drilling results of December. 
Could someone please shed some light on potential.
Many Regards, Shane
If an answer will be posted on T.V could you please let me know what time it will be on.


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## winsol (6 February 2008)

An interesting article that suggests that things will move along

http://www.crtv.cm/cont/nouvelles/n...owSection=economie&idField=242&table=noticias


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## spottygoose (6 February 2008)

Shane said:


> Hi guys, First time to site. Thought you'd all be interested in this
> For all of you in Australia tonight on sky business news, FOXTEL Ch 602 between 7-8PM AEDT they will be answering a question I asked them last week by email on SDL.
> 
> Hi,
> ...




Thanks for that Shane. I was out and missed the show but if you could let us know the response it would be very much appreciated.


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## Shane (6 February 2008)

Hi spot,

Basically all that we all ready know, they said its consolidating..... mmmmm really!! , very insightful  
They didnt really say all that much about prospects, he was a chart analyst and didnt go into any fundamentals. Went on to say that the problem with these types of stocks is that they have yet to get an E in the P/E ratio which makes it impossible to price. 

My thougts are very simple if its feasable to take out of the ground we have a mine on our hands. Simple, but true!!!
Reading the drilling report, the fact that they are getting another 5 rigs on site as quickly as possible means only one thing, theres iron ore in them hills.
And with the new deposit potential which was not factored in previously. The report is as good if not better than I personally expected
Im sitting tight chucking them in the draw and getting on with living. This project will take care of itself. The management team on board is fully capable of making this mine work (if its possible), the boys there have proven themselves to be able to take dirt and turn it into a succesful mine.

As investors go If Ralf Sarich is on this..... he's no goose, there is certain potential. ( He bought in at 38c )

And hey this mine is a gamble, but with the cards they are holding, I like the odds. Short to Medium term (1 year) Im looking at $1.10... longer term well we'll work that out when we get there.

Ha! no one asked for my thoughts but hey, there they are. 

Happy Investing


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## prawn_86 (6 February 2008)

Shane,

Can you please provide detailed evidence as to why you think that price target is feasible? As it is nearly 4x the current amount

Simply saying they have IO is not enough, especially in current market conditions.

thanks

Prawn


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## Shane (6 February 2008)

Hi Prawn, 
I have come to that figure based on my own tech analysis, based on numerous teqhniqes i have picked up over the past 3 years of Full Time trading. Remember Im not saying it will turn on a dime if it is to get to that price. But i would seriously consider taking some profits off the table around that area ....profit objective. 

But if you look at the report they just released today and do a few basic figures...

Potential Project operating margin  $30 US/tonne ( Before 08 Iron Ore negs)
35 MPTA = 1 billion /year

If you worked on a PE of as low as 5 your looking at $2.50 a share. (2 Billion outstanding shares)

10X what the price is now and that is being conservative, not taking into account the current price negotiations in iron ore, where they are talking of a 25-75% increase. This would be between 10-$30 extra on PPO margin.
If it takes me to 2011 to get 10x, i'll be a happy chap.
I know this has been said a million times but there are so many similarities between SDL and FMG
Ive been watching this share for the past 12 months and have found this to be the best oppurtunity to get back on board.

I know this is a very simpistic view, but if it was technical I'd be running the project. I fully believe in a KISS approach in trading (Keep it simple stoopid).

Happy Trading....


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## doctorj (8 February 2008)

The prospect looks pretty good and I've got to say, that excluding the three factors I'm about to mention, I think your valuation is reasonable as a rough start.

My concerns with SDL are:

(i) Sovereign risk.  British markets understand African sovereign risk much better than down under, perhaps a dual listing is the way to go?  That said when you're based in Africa you deserve some kind of discount.

(ii) The prospect is in a border area near 3 different countries.  Now, I have to admit to not being up with politics in that part of the world, but given the number of armed conflicts at any one time in Africa, what is top stop neighbouring countries deciding they want the spoils?  Also, the proposed rail lines predominately follow the Southern border of the country...

(ii) The HUGE amount of capital required to get this underway.  It'd be alright for the likes of BHP/RIO who can fund internally, but they need to raise something like A$3.8b to build a port and rail line.  Sure, Twiggy got that kind of money, but the difference is he has mining rights to half the Pilbara (an established mining area that contributes a significant portion of BHP/RIOs market cap) which also happens to be in a very stable western country.


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## hotmail222 (8 February 2008)

Shane said:


> I know this has been said a million times but there are so many similarities between SDL and FMG




If only SDL could leech off existing rail infrastructure built and paid for by third parties.


Irrelevant side note:
I like to dream of potential for large infrastructure savings that could have been gained if the walloping Belinga deposit in Gabon (just over 100km away) was in the same municipality as the Mbalam deposit.


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## Shane (8 February 2008)

Good points DocJ

And hotmail You maybe onto something there. Wow if it was possible to direct the train line there Imagine the savings. I havent looked into there mine and facilities to much.

Give that company a slice of Mbalam and watch this puppy grow into its full speculative potential... Hey there is a 100 million shares available to round out to 2 billion... 
Thinking outside the box is usually how most big things happen. 
Unlikely but great thinking. Surely the management team would have thought of that, but if for whatever reason they havent it might be worth putting a note in there suggestion box. 
I'll send them an email and see what they reply with. Nothing to lose, riches to be gained 



Oppurtunities of a lifetime comes but twice a week, youve just got to be looking for them...   unknown


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## mick2006 (18 February 2008)

Looks like the 65% increase in iron ore contract prices might have started to wake the sleeping giant that is SDL, we are now due for the latest set of iron ore assays out of Cameroon, what most people are keeping an eye on is the scout drill hole at the Mbarga South Prospect because if they have success here SDL are looking at an extra several hundred million tonnes of high grade DSO ore.

Given the increased interest in the iron ore sector today due to the massive contract price increase any positive news from Cameroon will give a massive boost to SDL's shareprice, maybe we are seeing a bit of speculation today in anticipation of some good news.


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## Piggy Bank (18 February 2008)

Doesn't encourage short term confidence in SDL, especially given general market sentiment, when Dr John Saunders (Non-Executive Director) announces that a company that he holds a beneficial interest in has recently disposed of 100000 shares at 25 cents per share.


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## Lucky_Country (18 February 2008)

Still holds millions in options !
$25,000 is peanuts too these rich guys maybe trying too keep the price down and morale low


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## Shane (19 February 2008)

Great news for the prospects of SDL if RIO's 154% increase takes a hold.
Rio have gone in wanting freight cost difference to brazil. $35 extra for Brazil to send a tonne to china....
Very very good news, theoretically we only have to have half of the iron ore in the ground to get the same type of return.
Fingers crossed

Happy Trading


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## Shane (19 February 2008)

Piggy... granted

But when your holding over 10 million options, 100000 seems a little insignificant. Maybe his kid wanted a new ipod  and all the accesories.
If he dumped 50% then I'd sit up and take notice


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## winsol (22 February 2008)

Interesting article on Reuters - some movement??

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSL2170341420080221

"YAOUNDE, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Cameroon Iron Ore Company (CamIron), controlled by Australia's Sundance Resources (SDL.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) will begin exporting iron ore from its $2.46 billion Mbalam iron ore project by 2011, its general manager said on Thursday.

Roger Bogne said feasibility studies and an environmental assessments will be submitted before the end of February, and the company would sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the government by March, paving the way for Cameroon to issue an official exploitation licence. (Reporting by Tansa Musa; writing by Daniel Flynn, Editing by Peter Blackburn)"


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## LRG (22 February 2008)

I've done my dough on this one too.

Bought at around 46 cents.

It is 50% down - that is a lot.

Will leave share certificate in bottom draw and hope in a few years all the hype has been worth it.

It is real crystal ball stuff.

Seems like money should be in B&B NAB LEI etc now - blue chips that are down but still making excellent profits year in year out.


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## Miner (28 February 2008)

*Condolence Message to whom it may concern 
(Including me having bought at 40 cents SDL and at 23 cents ) *

SDL has plummetted at 21 cents just now. I thought it will never happen but now the lowest value has triggered when every one is making money.
That could be sure sign of trouble in Cameroon and hopefully not repeat of ABS saga.


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## LRG (28 February 2008)

This stock is either ridiculously cheap or it is heading for the scrap heap.

Given the involvement of the ex MCC owner I suspect he knows what he is doing and it is cheap.

Having said that I haven't any more funds to plough into it to reduce my average entry price.

It is going to take a long time to get back to 45 cents, never lone into the $'s.

No use dumping it - just wait to 2011/12 and hope!!!


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## mayk (28 February 2008)

I bought it at its high of 80c  Now I have lost so much of my value that losing more by selling it does not make sense to me. Not to mention I have lost a lot on GBG as well. These are the two " Gems " in my collection of worse stocks ever.

Anyhoo I will start buying it when it will reachat 10-15 cents. It will be rock bottom for this stock. Then My average price will be around 30c  .


I will personally go to cameroon and dig and sell my portion of iron ore if I have to  .


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## frotman (28 February 2008)

Hello,
This is my 1st post on this Forum.
I have traded SDL all last year but got caught at the top.
So, you are not alone. Huge, massive loss for me too.
Still holding with very little hope.
The hurdles for SDL at present, in this environment do not give me much
to cling to except for 1 big thing. Someone may want what's in the ground.
The tendancy for shorting at present is one of the hurdles for sp.
Margin calls and automatic selling are probably playing there part.
Sovereign risk could be another.??
Infrastructure has been discussed above.

I don't know the afternoon trading range yet but
saw a possibility of a bounce from about 20.5c.
If I am wrong I suspect that SDL may be heading for 8 to 9c
and lurk around there until they can set themselves up.
This may take a couple of years unless, as I said above, another
company moves in eagerly wanting the stuff in the ground.
frotman


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## mayk (28 February 2008)

Thanks for letting me know I am not alone. Although now I am detached from this stock, if it gets down to 8-9 cents I will top up heaviley as will other people . 

I was inclined to buy a lot of this stock when it showed strong recovery from 23.5 cents a few weeks back, but then better sense prevailed and I thought it will surely go down as it has nothing to report unlike other stocks ( like ADY , GBG) for the whole 1 year! And as you might know things quickly change in this business.


I am still a believer and hopeful, some day my investment in SDL will bear fruit.

On a side note it will be a good time for some other iron ore company to buy sdl for pennies. CFE has cashed up from its sale of its iron ore. Lets hope it looks in sdl direction . Well BHP should also consider this to be a good opportunity.


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## nikki (28 February 2008)

Hi all, have been out of SDL for a while as some of you might know so please take my comments as someone who does not hold! Having said that i have a number of friends who are still holding from 0.8.

ASX200 listing has allowed any man and his dog to short the stock. . . . . I trade ADY a bit and the CEO suggested that perhaps some overseas hedge funds were playing with that stock. I suspect that this is even more the case with SDL. I have never seen such volumes on the buy and sell side within such small margins. i guess if you are selling 2 million at 0.05 profit that would be huge. I also suspect the same traders are buying and selling to themselves using different accounts which give them trade-off for other stuff - e.g. make a loss on this account to offset tax but in that process i can re-buy the stock using another account, etc. etc. etc. I say this because no one has lodged statements re owning significant amounts and yet so many million shares have been traded!!!!

The best thing for this stock is to get kicked out of the ASX200 at which point it will shoot back up when the really big boys stop playing with it. In the meantime i would not be surprised if it breaks 0.22 support once again and perhaps test 0.2. I for one would buy every share below 0.2 so i am sure long term investors would also jump in

It is easy to see this price movement in SDL and assume it is an ABS/MFS etc etc but i suspect that the fundamentals have not changed a bit and has actually got better in the past six months.

Good luck to you all and I am sorry for anyone who has felt anxious holding this stock and has watched it do funny things. I have certainly lost a lot of sleep over the crappy trading behavior i have seen in SDL.


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## BigJohnny (28 February 2008)

Hi Nikki,

I believe number of shares outstanding approx. 1.723 billion is reason why there is so much liquidty on the offer side of the market. Having so much shares with long-term holders, always allow hedge funds to secure borrowed stock to short sell. Though i do not believe hedge funds objective in this stock is sell it to zero. Find that most big insto participation in this stock has been for index abritrage being ASX200 index. So if the ASX200 is moving lower compared to the previous day, then you can expect more sell side pressure from the active index tracking guys. 

Compare against peers like UMC, TLM, SPH, GRR, GBG, AGO, CFE. Sundance is certainly the most expensive stock by market cap given its current position in the "explorer to producer" cycle and project dynamics (distance to port & markets, expected capital spending), though it has an agressive 2008 plan. I do currently own this stock, but would be interested when its market cap closer to GIR, GWR

Cheers
BJ


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## Goldmann (29 February 2008)

echo the comments made previously - and its good to know that I am not the only one who jumped aboard the SDL train at the wrong time... my tranche of shares were bought at 42 - and I think it if halves that (i.e. hits .21 again) - I will have no option but to try and lower my average price (even though I know this one wont bear fruit for a while)... 

still - its less of a dog stock for me than VRE - at least my other little gold diggers are on the up and up (DIO, LGL and AND)....

good luck to all us still believing in the upside of SDL...


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## Zodiac (5 March 2008)

Virgin. Why all the doom and gloom fellow SDLs. There has to be a reason some "new entries" are predicting 8c. Maybe they know the short selling game and talking down the stock. Why not. SDL has a hugh share base, no announcements due in the short term and this is a chance for the fat boys to get fatter. Why does it seem historically that SDL's growth and demise as been quite staged over a number of years? Are large Hedge funds involved? Interesting to note that the ex-chairman of SDL heads up a large hedge fund "Fortitude Capital". Why has not the board tried to settle investor concerns? It may be that the share price is now at a nice entry point for more "appropriate investors" to come on board before any big announcements. I would love to know who is buying all this SDL stock. If any one has the time and means it would be interesting to see if there has been a major increase in African ( Cameroon ) French names on the share registry. With Cameroon's current secuirty problems I can only imagine that as in most 3rd world countries "prices are not always prices", and if SDL are at the stage of cementing government support prior to annoucements I am sure there will be many officials and the local cheifs that would love to be securing shares at a reasonable value. This project is to big for Cameroon to let go, their credibility is at stake and their govt needs jobs for its people. Don't believe all we hear and keep to the fundamentals. Spec company with a hugh upside based on excellent assumptions headed by a smart board who know what they "have" to do to get the job done.

Zodiac


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## Vaughan (6 March 2008)

I don't think its as dire as people are making out. Its just a rough patch, if you can afford to stick around a little longer I believe the rewards will be plentiful.

A great time to average down...

But this is just my opinion and obviously there are risks


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## Goldmann (6 March 2008)

I'm not so sure.. this one is really starting to annoy me... 

Everything else in my portfolio is up today... everything... except SDL... if it cant make any ground today, then no wonder it drops 3% everytime the US market goes down... im thinking a real low period ahead... with no REAL upside for quite a while...   Average down I reckon, and as many wise men have said - stick it in the bottom draw for a while.


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## jman2007 (6 March 2008)

Quote:

By Hsu Chuang Khoo of Reuters

LONDON--Australian exploration firm Cape Lambert Iron plc plans to invest about $170 million (US$158M) in an African iron ore asset by June, chief executive Tony Sage told Reuters.

The London-listed firm also plans to return about $100 million to shareholders following the sale of its Western Australia-based Cape Lambert Iron ore project to Chinese government construction firm China Metallurgical Group Corp, a sale that will raise $400 million.

"We've signed the confidentiality documents and done the due diligence on the Africa Project", said Mr Sage, who was speaking by telephone from Australia.

End Quote.

This very "speculative" connection has been mentioned on the CFE thread recently, could there be a connection here?  Tbh, I don't know, I'm certainly not trying to throw a cat amongst the pigeons here, or raise people's expectations but I'm merely trying to provoke some discussion and gauge SDL investors opinions.

Thanks
jman
Disclaimer: I hold CFE, dnh SDL


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## Zodiac (6 March 2008)

Well done JMAN. Great news to list as it helps us open our eyes to the bigger picture. Of interest is that prior to being chairman of Cape Lambert Iron Ore, Ian Burston was the MD of Portman Ltd under the Chairmanship of our own George Jones. Inetersting synergies. 

Zodiac


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## Justthinkin (6 March 2008)

I remember the days when sex was something you had with an attractive partner. What happens? Someone discovered mining iron ore and the rest is history including my sex life!!! SDL has made its contribution to that issue.

I liked SDL because it seemed to be moving forward slowly but surely. I fortuneately don't own the stock now as quite frankly I can't see a clear direction... the market is truly hideous and unless you have cash flows, watch out!!!

For want of a discussion point, I can't help but notice:
(a) of it's total 3.2B capex, 1.4B is associated with rail infrastrucutre;
(b) it has a neigbour (I'd be guessing say 200km south west) in CMEC at it's Belinga Iron Ore Project to which it has publicly committed $3B;
(c) Of CMEC's expenditure is circa 500km of rail infrastructure;
(d) Of SDL's directors is a gent by the name of Dr John Saunders. I know nothing about him other than in his resume he's previously worked with CMEC;
(e) Talbot is not a complete goose but maybe at the moment a little distracted. He has invested heavily in SDL and I suspect he might have done some homework. No guarantees, just a positive hint.

Wouldn't it be nice if ploitically and economically CMEC and SDL could co-ordinate thier projects? Both could defray what is an overwhelming capex in the scheme of things. The trick is, who will blink first.


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## Miner (6 March 2008)

Justthinkin said:


> I remember the days when sex was something you had with an attractive partner. What happens? Someone discovered
> 
> For want of a discussion point, I can't help but notice:
> (a) of it's total 3.2B capex, 1.4B is associated with rail infrastrucutre;
> ...





I think Talbot went to the same school where Eddie (ABS) went.
So it is only a matter of facts he would follow the suit and make the shareholders in real dole drum. I do hold SDL but with 19 cents less than my purchase price do not have enough courage to build up or sale them. 

Not all directors are smart and there are few like Michael K, Talbot, Eddie - who just God's own syndicated lotto to invest and ruin our money as well


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## frotman (7 March 2008)

Hi Zodiac & others,

You asked "Why all the doom and gloom ?"

Well for one I feel manipulated and for 2nds I have money in a stock that has fallen for too long. I share Goldman's sentiments. 


Maybe someone can explain what is going on.
Yesterday there were buys @ $1,740 and $1,745.
I counted over 100 of them between 0.215 and 0.22.

Today over 5 million buy orders at 0.20.
The going price for the day seemed to be 0.205
then, just before 4pm, a massive bundle was bought at 0.21.
Some mystery buyer.

In my last post I mentioned the slim chance of a bounce around 0.205.
Today it hit 0.20. Closed 0.205. 
It very nearly closed at the 'mystery buyer's' price of 21 c.

Justthinkin makes a valid point "unless you have cash flows, watch out.."
By the way, shorting stocks is NOT my thing. I don't do it.
Good luck to all.


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## frotman (7 March 2008)

The line:
Yesterday there were buys @ $1,740 and $1,745.
I counted over 100 of them between 0.215 and 0.22.

Should read:
There were buy parcels 1,740 & 1,745
I counted over 100 of them between $0.215 and $0.22.


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## Justthinkin (7 March 2008)

I must say that I watched the traffic today and to an extent was encouraged that 0.20 held firm. At times I was sure it was to be broken and $0.10 was the next stop.

My SDL buy order finger is twitchy but I cannot find a trigger for swing... SDL is just an unloved child...it's a child and somebody loves it.

Small parcels are infuriating...they are every where and I still can't understand the rationale although I'm suspicious there about un-settling markets or mis-directing technical analysts/chartists.


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## mayk (8 March 2008)

A technical chart. Nothing fancy, the stock is in a downward trend and technically it does not make sense to buy this stock ( fundamentally it is a different story). It has been in this downtrend since its merger talks with GBG failed. GBG has started its upward trend, but this stock is still haunted by shorting punters.

It is quite a famous stock. Many brokers have put a $.7-1 price range till the end of year, on this stock ( I think including JP Morgan or goldman sachas).


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## mayk (11 March 2008)

Well, in next rally I will sell SDL because it is obviously heading for .1. I can double my shares if I sell now ($.2) and rebuy them at ($.1). 

I don't know why I didn't think of that earlier  . I guess it must be one of the secrets, which some wise guy must have written in some good book of investing.  Oh well live and learn. Worst part is I have seen its decline from glorious .8 to what it is today from the sideline.


Today will be a blood bath for this stock.

I vote this stock to be DOG of the YEAR ( quarter?).


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## Vaughan (11 March 2008)

I would be careful doing that

Personally I would not, just be aware of the risk, i.e. you sell, and price jumps back to 25-30.

All the best with your plan though if you decide to go for it


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## tucks (11 March 2008)

This stock continues to cause pain to all and though we can only really speculate as to the reasons why it would be nice to have some information from the company. This lack of news/announcements on the recent s/p plummet is a massive concern and begs the question of management to fulfill its duty to the shareholder....

 I only like being taken for a ride on the back of a Harley........


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## rogue_investor (12 March 2008)

As pointed out earlier in this thread the stock is a victim of being part of the ASX200.  Quite cleary, there's a highly liquid broker out there running an algo on the stock that trades at volumes of around 1700 shares a throw.  If you can figure out the calculation (be it Index or Stock futures or Options) you might have a show to beat it.  Liquidity has gathered too much interest in the market now so as a result the average punter is stuffed.


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## LRG (13 March 2008)

This stock is a basket case at the moment.  It just keeps heading south.  There has been absolutely no announcement from SDL saying what is going on.

Talbott held 20% when it was 50c + so he has lost 10's of millions - why isn't he saying anything?

Is this a total disaster heading to zero???


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## Vaughan (14 March 2008)

You haven't lost anything until you sell.

When the resource if finally proven up does anyone really think it wont skyrocket??? Talbott wont be looking to sell any time soon

Do they have Fe, almost certainly, going to a hell of a lot of trouble with infastructure plans etc if they don't. More of a question as to how much...

Even with a their pessimistic estimates the price will not stay around such low prices

Biggest risk in my opinion is politics and the price of iron in 5 years time

For all those people who bought in at around 50 cents, including me, the likelihood of not at least getting you money back in 12 months is slim. So unless you need that money for something else today I wouldn't get too stressed. 

DYOR though of course


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## Vaughan (14 March 2008)

Oh yeah, Warren Buffets golden rule "Don't loose capital"

Selling now would be blatantly breaking that rule, I don't know about anyone else but I don't want to get Warren mad...


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## speculator101 (18 March 2008)

Hi fellow investors.
Bit of bad news, last night JBwere changed thier rec for SDL. to hold, and from thier initial price target of .70 a few months ago, (.50 1 month ago) its down to .25 mmm....
Oh, also, they believe that it is going to be 'quite' hard for a single non producing company to get the money (in this market of fear and ZERO liquidity) needed to really get this project off the ground. 
IMHO.... sadly


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## Lucky_Country (18 March 2008)

The chinese may help out !
They hate RIO and BHP more players the better in their eyes.
But yeh maybe hard but its a good project that many want to succeed.


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## oldblue (18 March 2008)

I've been having a look at SDL.

Am I correct in assuming that they need to build the infrastructure, ie a rail line and a port, if they are to exploit this hematite resource in Africa?


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## Vaughan (18 March 2008)

That is correct

But my understanding is that the infrastructure is not going to be fully funded by them, there are some other project in the region which may share this cost.


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## oldblue (18 March 2008)

Vaughan said:


> That is correct
> 
> But my understanding is that the infrastructure is not going to be fully funded by them, there are some other project in the region which may share this cost.




Thanks, Vaughan, that's interesting.
Does anyone have any more information on this? Particularly, who the other party is and whether there is any contractual arrangement.


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## Vaughan (19 March 2008)

There is plenty of information on their website, I'm sure if you sift through that you can find what you are looking for


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## Goldmann (19 March 2008)

I've had enough of this one... will sell out today hopefully around peak, and when the US releases so more bad news - will buy into SDL when its down around .12 or .13...


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## tezz (19 March 2008)

Up 20% today, getting plenty of support now, about 3 mil buys went through at 4.10pm. We might see .25 next week. I don't believe what brokers say, Ive  been following SDL for over a year now, got in at 8.8 cents, looking much more positive now with the railway and port plans. Heavily backed in Europe.


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## frotman (19 March 2008)

Mayk, Vaughan & others,

I had to sell out for the same reasons as others.
Vaughan, sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do,
even if Warren Buf sends a please explain note.
The waiting and paying interest can get to breaking point.
Since selling, I have still been watching SDL.

Form 603-Notice of Initial substantial holder today from Concord Capital Ltd.

94.6 million shares purchased. They are a Pitt St. outfit from Sydney.
Director Garry Duncan.
Could this be the entity that has been purchasing in parcels 
of about 1,700 for others??? 
They state, on the form, that they nor any affiliates own these 
shares for any of their own accounts, rather the shares (declared on the form) are owned by accounts under management
by Concord Capital.

On the notice are the following registered holders of securities:
  National Custodian Services (Melbourne)
  Cogent Nominees (Royal Exchange NSW)
  Bond Street Custodian Ltd (Bond St. Sydney)
  JP Morgan Chase Ltd. (George St. Sydney)

Together they have bought 94,605,817 shares between
16th Jan 2008 until 18th March 2008.

What do you think will be the time lag between purchasing and
some kind of action?
Are the deals already in place or do the deals start now?
Methinks something will happen but it will need lots of financial backing
in an iffy environment so timing is a hard one to figure out.

Perhaps someone on this forum can throw some light on this?
My intention was to buy back in at around 8 to 10 cents. 
I think Tezz bought in at the right price.


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## Goldmann (20 March 2008)

Anyway - all I said was I am glad I sold out yesterday at .205 and that I will get back aboard the ___________ in a while when they are closer to finalising the details to get the stuff out of the ground... 

Good luck to all holders - might still get back on the SDL horse if it gets closer to the .10....


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## Trader52 (23 March 2008)

I had a chat to my broker on this one.  He is still positive due to the people involved and those that hold stock.  He thinks it will go, but it might take awhile to get rolling.  A lot more activity lately, but I don't know if that means something is going to break soon or not.  I was going to top up at .17, but the SP has now crept over .2!  Given all the interest with Iron Ore it may still fly.


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## mayk (26 March 2008)

I am attaching a link to SDL chart, 
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SDL

It shows promise, a higher high and lower low ( I know it is too early to say but hey!) is been established. I will now wait for this  uptrend to be varified over a period of time. I guess the previous low values of .17 were because of  accumulation. Recently a new main share holder has also been announced, which clarifies some aspect of the share price movements.

Remember, this project will start delivering iron ore from 2011, two more years to go...

Rough stats for this project:

Assumed:  750 Mt, 60+ iron ore grade.
Total capex estimate $US: 3.7B (including building a port and a rail network)
Total rough value of the underground Iron ore: 750M * $100= $75B.
Operating cost ( from their report, per ton)    : $25  * 750M = $18.75B.

Net worth    = $56.25B.
Total shares = 1.87B, 
Net worth per share = $30 per share (over a period of 20 years...) 

Now , here I have assumed 100 price of iron ore per ton , which is realistic , given the current prices are negotiated at around $140. So give and take in two years time, a stable price of 100 is a fair value. Even half of that price ( as used in SDL report) values the share at $15.


Also important to note:
The project will produce 25Mt per annum, so it will take around 20 years to take out all this iron from ground. The price of iron ore and operating cost might change in future and this might alter the outcome.

Correct me if I have stated anything wrong. The facts are taken from this report
http://www.sundanceresources.com.au... pfs update mbalam iron ore project final.pdf


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## sidswingerhead (26 March 2008)

Possible breakout today on good volume...............................................................................................................


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## jman2007 (26 March 2008)

mayk said:


> It shows promise, a higher high and lower low ( I know it is too early to say but hey!) is been established. I will now wait for this  uptrend to be varified over a period of time.




Yes may be gaining some traction at last,

As you mentioned, I would definitely be waiting for this break to be confirmed before we can say this has reached its lower limit, but in light of the recent sp performance, todays action will give long-suffering investors some heart at least.

Obviously there are many, _many_ people who are sitting on very significant losses here, and I feel if SDL continues to gain support the desire to sell will be too strong for some people to overcome.  Other investors may have just relegated their share certificates to a box in the wardrobe and will just have accepted the pain, and by default will become long-term holders until happier times.

jman

Disclaimer: DNH


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## Zodiac (27 March 2008)

Hi Mayk, thanks for your commentary. Remarkable turn around from 2 weeks ago when you quoted "this stock has to be the dog of the year" and that you were getting out. Did you sell? Why have you supplied such an indepth analyse, please note your revenue is based on 60%fe plus at 750m when in fact the 60%fe dso grade was only at approx 230m which changes income significantly. Talking down the stock and now talking up the stock? Are you are broker? Zodiac


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## mayk (27 March 2008)

A few pages back, I posted a chart which showed a clear downtrend for SDL. Based on that information it made sense ( back then) to get out of this stock and re-enter later so that net number of my SDL stocks can increase.

Recently it has potentially broken its downward trend ( based on today's vol & price). I just stated that fact by pointing to the graph.


I was just trying to put a value to this stock and thus analyzed this stock, based on the information from the report.  No I am not a broker or trader.


I was simply pointing to the fact that technically this stock was down for a couple of months and seem to be breaking that trend lately. Please note that uptrend is not full established ( It might be a false positive!).


Disclaimer: I hold SDL stock.


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## agro (27 March 2008)

I noticed a revival in this stock too considering a reversal in GBG (the failed merger participant)..

maybe things are back on the cards again? 

volume of 29 million shows particular interest


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## sidswingerhead (27 March 2008)

agro said:


> I noticed a revival in this stock too considering a reversal in GBG (the failed merger participant)..
> 
> maybe things are back on the cards again?
> 
> volume of 29 million shows particular interest





I think you would do much better in ausie Iron ore stocks AGRO "ROFLAO" 



The trend has changed direction, but be wary of a pullback on such a quick rise.


SDL makes me wanna dance.


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## agro (27 March 2008)

sidswingerhead said:


> I think you would do much better in ausie Iron ore stocks AGRO "ROFLAO"
> 
> 
> 
> ...




true re - forums 

China/India will always have a demand for the bulk commodity thats why they are fretting at the moment over the 71% increase by RIO/BHP!! if we are looking at 71% this year - what will it be in the future? thats another question!

come back in a couple years time and you will soon find out how undervalued most IOs are today


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## sidswingerhead (27 March 2008)

Not sure what is the driving source in SDL at present. I suspect it has to do with Concord Capital becoming a substantial holder on the 19/03. Also resource sector seems to have had a bit of a resurgence over the last couple of days.

What ever the cause, the breakout has occurred and I am happy with recent increases.


----------



## golfmos123 (27 March 2008)

Yes, nice breakout and for most of us, about time!!

They should have the additional drilling rigs on the ground very soon and are meant to be negotiating with the local govt regarding terms etc.  Could it be that SDL might have slowed down the flow of drilling info so that they can get a better negotiating position with the govt???? (ie not have to pay so much).

Whatever the reasons, it doesn't change the fact that the ore is still in the ground and it keeps getting more valuable.  Am still in the red, but can see the green just over the next hill.....


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## spottygoose (27 March 2008)

In their response to the ASX speeding ticket they indicated two factors for the price rise. 1. Concord Capital taking a substantial holding and 2. The recent presentation they gave to Goldman Sachs in New York. Perhaps the second one is the bigger indicator. Are they yanks now buying?


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## sidswingerhead (28 March 2008)

28th March 2008 ASX/MEDIA RELEASE EXPLORATION UPDATE – MBALAM IRON ORE PROJECT Further to its announcement of 29th January 2008, international iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – “Sundance”) is pleased to provide an update on exploration activities at its 90%-owned Mbalam Iron Ore Project in Cameroon, West Africa. Drilling capacity at the Mbalam Project has been substantially increased with six rigs now on site. Five of these rigs are currently operating with the final rig expected to be commissioned this weekend. The new drilling capacity includes the two new Thor Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling rigs manufactured in South Africa and two RC rigs and a diamond drilling rig supplied by international drilling contractor Ausdrill. In total, Sundance has four RC rigs and two diamond rigs on site. This will significantly enhance drilling productivity and enable the Company to accelerate its assessment of both Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) and itabirite hematite mineralization at Mbalam. Sundance has an extensive exploration program planned for 2008 with a total exploration budget of approximately $35 million which is fully funded from the company’s existing cash reserves of $62 million. Two RC rigs and two diamond rigs are currently testing the extent and depth of the resource potential on the Mbarga prospect. One RC rig is currently testing the Mbarga South prospect, which was identified during surface mapping and preliminary drilling in the December quarter. It is intended to shortly dispatch two of the RC rigs to start drilling the Metzimevin prospect in the June quarter. Sundance CEO Mr Don Lewis said: “We are pleased with the initial performance of the new rigs and are already seeing the benefits of increased drilling rates. The new RC rigs are drilling to depths of up to 300m and the diamond rigs will continue to drill holes to 300-500m depth” “We continue to be encouraged by the progress of exploration at Mbalam and expect to progressively announce tonnage ranges for both DSO and itabirite hematite mineralisation. We will target delivery of a JORC-code compliant resource as we define the extent of the initial prospects being drilled.” ENDS
Released by:
On behalf of:
Nicholas Read Telephone: (+61-8) 9388-1474 / +61-419 929 046
Don Lewis, Managing Director / Michael Weir, Investor Relations Manager (+61-8) 9220-2300 /+61-417 996 005
Read Corporate
Web: www.sundanceresources.com.au


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## sidswingerhead (29 March 2008)

An inside day yesterday "potential reversal pattern". 

Given that there was a red market overall, coupled with a Friday, I expect there was considerable profit taking going on after the initial break out.
My thoughts are that SDL will test support at this level for a day or 2 and may even retest the .20 level, before making another run to the .30c - .33c level. 

.33c being the first 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

For those unfamiliar with Fibonacci levels.

Fibonacci retracements are displayed by first drawing a trendline between two extreme points (i.e., a significant trough and peak). The default levels are: 0.0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. 

After a significant move (either up or down), prices will often rebound and retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As the price retraces, support and resistance levels will often occur at or near the Fibonacci retracement levels. 

The SP has also broken above the 9, 21 and 50 day (lime green)  WMA. Another test area would see the SP come back and re-test the 50 day WMA.


Your TA analysis/view on SDL would be appreciated


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## agro (29 March 2008)

Sundance Confident of Funding $3.3 Billion African Ore Project

By Jesse Riseborough



> March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Sundance Resources Ltd., seeking to build a $3.3 billion iron ore project in Cameroon, is *confident *of securing finance as rising corporate borrowing costs make it harder for some companies to find lenders.
> 
> ``We are seeing, whilst obviously we are in a tight credit market at the moment, for *quality bulk commodity *projects, money is still there,'' Don Lewis, chief executive officer of Perth- based Sundance, said today. ``We will look at our funding options during the course of this year.''
> 
> ...




To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 28, 2008 02:48 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=a7a2B3QHsE_0&refer=africa


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## Lucky_Country (29 March 2008)

Great news they are sounding very confident on the resource defanition and of financing.
Sounds like theres plenty of intrest in the company.


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## agro (29 March 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Great news they are sounding very confident on the resource defanition and of financing.
> Sounds like theres plenty of intrest in the company.




not only that but BBY have them at 1.20s end of 2008 and valuation of 3.56 by the year 2012  don't know whether to trust a brokering firm though

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/13251/exploration update march 2008.pdf


my only main concern in sovereign risk to do with Africa other than that its strategically located to Europe.. 

but hey who knows could be the next fortescue ? talbot got MCC (coal) up and running well 

 see what the JORC delivers


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## Lucky_Country (29 March 2008)

I fully expect the project to get finance and the project to go ahead.
The challange then will be contain costs and complete on timeframe as with any project it has too be said.
SDL once project is completed will then become a takeover target and as for the sp well FMG now has 2.4 billion shares on issue at $6.50 - $8 depending on the market and read Charlie Aitken say they could reach $15.
SDL 1.8 billion on issue so theres definately upside as the project becomes nearer too production.
Joe Lewis the CEO seems a very motivated and dependable individual.


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## Zodiac (31 March 2008)

Interesting that the recent price activity has coincided with a visit by the Australian High Commissioner of Cameroon / Nigeria with the Cameroon Minister of Mines on the 27th March to discuss " investment opportunities in the mining sector specifally the Mbalm iron ore project to be executed by the Australian Company "Sundance Resources". It would seem that the MOU is not far away. This together with the statements made to the press by Roger Bogne's ( GM of CamIron ) that confidently reported that the project will proceed ( he must be under different market disclosure obligations than our poor Directors in Perth ) SDL has gone onto many watchlists. Also of note is the activity with CFE ( $400,000 cashed up company,  CFE's Chairman - Ian Burston was the MD of Porter Mines under the chairmanship of our George Jones ). What will they be doing with all this money? This deal is due by end of April.

Zodiac


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## sidswingerhead (1 April 2008)

SDL tested support around the .23 - .25 area for a couple of days and has now started a strong run on excellent volume. 

Huge delta in the buy sell spread with the Bulls gaining ascendancy

 453 buyers for 28,780,054 units ....... 59 sellers for 7,560,759 units


Blue sky ahead is a pleasure indeed.


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## sidswingerhead (1 April 2008)

SDL chart is looking much better. Strong buying today with 38,407,186 shares changing hands and a 14% increase in SP from yesterdays close. An overall increase of 67% from the low on the 18th March.

Positive attributes to this chart are a short term 9/21WMA crossover buy signal was triggered on the 27th March and an Intermediate term buy signal 9/50WMA was triggered on the 31st March.

Not too bad, with lots more upside potential (IMO)


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## LRG (1 April 2008)

With such a flat downwood spiral for the last few weeks - this has been an amazing turnaround in the last few days.

Is it blue sky from here or a dead cat bounce?


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## frogen (3 April 2008)

Hi,
I'm just wondering whether anyone could explain to me SDL's course of trades today. There were:-
98 repetitive trades of 1892 shares
14 repetitive trades of 3730 shares
25 repetitive trades of 1851 shares
I'm sure this must be the work of a broker or someone who doesn't have to pay brokerage fees. Just wondering what they are trying to gain from repetitive buys/sells. Or if we can tell are they trying to make the price go up/down or stabilise. 
Thanks.


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## sidswingerhead (3 April 2008)

You are watching the BOT's. Automated algorithmic trades going through. They have been working SDL for months now.


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## sidswingerhead (3 April 2008)

After initially breaking below the lower trading channel in February (throw under)  SDL rebounded and retested the lower trading at .30, only to retreat again.

Today there was a positive move back toward the trendline for another retest. If momentum is strong (and I think it is) the .30 level should be broken again soon.

The buy side is over double the sell side atm.

412 buyers for 23,844,175 units .........	251 sellers for 10,328,487 units

"Prove me wrong"


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## prawn_86 (3 April 2008)

Sid,

Are those buy and sells on your chart actually what trades you made? Or just what is thrown up by your charts/system?

Just out of curiosity. No obligation to answer


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## sidswingerhead (4 April 2008)

This is a very simple moving average crossover system that utilises (2) weighted moving averages to alert the person to a directional change in the trend. Simply put when the faster moving average crosses above or below a slower moving average, this indicates a sentiment change in the trend.

The 1st alert is a "Short term" Buy signal when the 9 day weighted moving average crosses above the 21 day weighted moving average.

Conversly "Short term" Sell signal when the 9 day weighted moving average crosses below the 21 day weighted moving average.

The 2nd alert is an "Intermediate term" Bullish brossover signal when the 9 day weighted moving average crosses above the 50 day weighted moving average.

Conversly "Short term" Bearish crossover signal when the 9 day weighted moving average crosses below the 50 day weighted moving average.


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## sidswingerhead (8 April 2008)

SDL showed sign of weakness yesterday after a strong rally from .17c, breaking below the ascending trendline..

Possible short term pull back as buyers and sellers ponder on the trends direction from here.

Is this the end of the 1st wave?


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## sidswingerhead (16 April 2008)

Great announcement from SDL today...


16th April 2008 ASX/MEDIA RELEASE EXPLORATION UPDATE – MBALAM IRON ORE PROJECT

SUNDANCE CONFIRMS POTENTIAL OF MBARGA DEPOSIT TO HOST +1 BILLION TONNES OF DSO/ITABIRITE IRON ORE

International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – “Sundance”) is pleased to report that drilling has confirmed the potential of its 90%-owned Mbalam Iron Ore Project in Cameroon, West Africa to host an iron ore resource in excess of 1 billion tonnes. 

Drilling at the Mbarga Deposit has defined two styles of hematite mineralisation – supergene Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) from surface underlain by massive itabirite hematite mineralisation to significant depth. 

Latest geological modelling (non JORC-Code compliant) of the Mbarga Deposit has outlined the potential for 1.0 – 1.2 billion tonnes itabirite-style mineralisation at an average grade of approximately 39% Fe. This is based on all assay data received from the areas drilled to date including laboratory assays and data obtained using site hand-held XRF instrumentation. This site XRF data is progressively being verified by laboratory assay work. 

The itabirite material comprises banded hematite-quartz with very low phosphorous (~0.03%) and alumina (~1.5%) contents. As previously reported, very preliminary testwork on a small number of selected samples of the Mbarga itabirite material has indicated that the itabirite may be beneficiated to produce a +65% Fe concentrate utilising conventional beneficiation plant similar to that used for upgrading of itabirite iron ores in Brazil. A bulk sample of drill core is currently being air freighted to Perth for more comprehensive beneficiation testing. 

The geological modelling has also updated the potential Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) tonnage from the Mbarga Deposit. Latest estimates range from 100 to 140 million tonnes hematite at an average grade of approximately 60% Fe, 0.09% P and 3.4% Al2O3. 

Drilling of both the DSO and itabirite ore horizons is continuing on the Mbarga Deposit utilising five of the six drill rigs operating on site. Surface and structural mapping gives reasonable confidence that definition of the itabirite tonnage will increase significantly with additional drilling. The Company will progressively step-out drilling over coming months to test the potential of other prospects on Exploration Permit 92 with these latest results resulting in the Company’s objectives for the Mbalam Iron Ore Project being reviewed with definition of an overall Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of itabirite-style mineralisation.

The latest geological modelling represents a significant step forward for the Company, confirming the potential for the Mbarga Deposit to support an integrated 35 Mtpa DSO/itabirite operation. This target is subject to completion of infill drilling to confirm a JORC-Code compliant resource and positive results from ongoing beneficiation testwork. At this stage, this remains a production target with any potential or assumed ore quantity and grade being conceptual in nature with insufficient results received from exploration completed to date to estimate a Mineral Resource compliant with the JORC Code (2004) guidelines. Furthermore, it is uncertain if exploration will result in the determination of a Mineral Resource sufficient to meet this assumed production target. 

Sundance’s CEO Don Lewis said: “Our exploration efforts at Mbalam are starting to show significant results. We have outlined potential for a +1 billion tonne DSO/itabirite iron ore resource on the Mbarga Deposit within six months of the Company reporting its first drilling results.” 

“The project could be similar in scale to some of the large iron ore projects in the Minas Gerais area of Brazil, which includes the Minas-Rio project being developed by MMX Mineraceo e Metallicos. That project has a target production capacity of 26.5 million tonnes hematite concentrate per annum, commencing in 2010, based on upgrading itabirite ore (~40% Fe) through conventional grinding and reverse flotation beneficiation plant.” 

“We believe that the itabirite projects in Brazil represent a useful benchmark for development of the emerging potential of the Mbalam Project. Significant DSO mineralisation in addition to a potentially world scale itabirite resource provides significant development flexibility and would allow low cost production in the early years of operation. The nature of the Mbarga Deposit, with mineralisation from surface, should allow very efficient mining, with low stripping ratios for both DSO and itabirite ore,” Mr Lewis added. 

*Grant of New Exploration Permit in Cameroon* 
The Company is also pleased to announce that it has secured a significant new Exploration Permit located immediately adjacent to Exploration Permit No. 92 (“EP92”) in support of the Mbalam Iron Ore Project. This more than doubles the existing landholding held by Camiron SA, the Company’s 90% owned subsidiary, in Cameroon. 

The new permit covers an area of approximately 1,000km² in south-east Cameroon. The permit area lies immediately east of the defined mineralization on EP92 and contains a number of topographic features similar to those identified in the existing exploration permit. The Company’s geological team believes that the new permit area may be prospective for hematite mineralization similar to that defined in EP92. The new permit represents a significant addition to Sundance’s exploration portfolio in Cameroon, consolidating its strategic position in this emerging iron ore province.

The Company will incorporate the new permit area into an expanded regional exploration program designed to deliver future drilling targets alongside its current focus of activity at Mbalam. The Company believes that this represents an opportunity to add significant value to the Company ENDS
Released by:
On behalf of:
Nicholas Read Telephone: (+61-8) 9388-1474 / +61-419 929 046
Don Lewis, Managing Director / Michael Weir, Investor Relations Manager (+61-8) 9220-2300 /+61-417 996 005
Read Corporate
Web: www.sundanceresources.com.au


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## fmz (16 April 2008)

Indeed, great news, and the market reacted. Looking forward to further announcements.


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## Piggy Bank (16 April 2008)

It has been a long time since I have made a comment about SDL....waiting patiently...good to see some significant positive news.  The market should react much more positively once the resource is upgraded with the further drilling planned for the imminent future.  It will be an important milestone once the resource estimate is JORC Compliant.  I will be looking forward to this day!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 April 2008)

Was just reading SDL's ann today,

Those are some impressive estimates, 

Latest geological modelling (non JORC-Code compliant) of the Mbarga Deposit has outlined the potential for *1.0 – 1.2 billion tonnes *itabirite-style mineralisation at an average grade of approximately *39% Fe*. This is based on all assay data received from the areas drilled to date

The geological modelling has also updated the potential Direct Shipping Ore (*DSO*) tonnage from the Mbarga Deposit. Latest estimates range from *100 to 140 million tonnes* hematite at an average grade of approximately *60% Fe*, 0.09% P and 3.4% Al2O3.

Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of itabirite-style mineralisation.

So they are currently targeting *1Bt's-1.2Bt's of Mag @ 39% Fe 
+ 100 -140Mt's@60%Fe DSO Heamatite*
and have *an end target of 2-2.5Billion Tonnes of Mag*

Those are some very large numbers


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## kransky (17 April 2008)

Here is another big number.. 1.8Bn.. thats the number of shares on issue.. makes BRM look way undervalued imo

:


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## gfresh (17 April 2008)

While they may have definitely have the in-ground resources, long way to go for SDL to be mining.. $US3.3bn of capex to get their operations running.. establishing railways, ports, etc in a foreign country. Going to require some big investment. Hopefully they can get the Chinese to the party, or going to be difficult. 

Lot of other iron ore projects coming onstream before then by other major iron ore producers worldwide, BHP, RIO, and FMG should all be well ramped up by 2012.. a few of the small players locally here may get up there as well contributing a few more million tonnes. By the time SDL get going may be a saturated market, paying off a large amount of debt


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 April 2008)

kransky said:


> Here is another big number.. 1.8Bn.. thats the number of shares on issue.. makes BRM look way undervalued imo
> 
> :




Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????


Anyway I don't hold any, wouldn't even think of buying as this is not my sort of share, but had never bothered to look at the size of the project before, lots of Mag, but why bother with Mag in Africa, we have plenty in Aus, just ask good old Clive Palmer to give you some


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## grace (17 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????
> 
> ...




GIR also have a +1 billion tonne target on their Earaheedy deposit (much closer to infrastructure).  Their MC is nothing compared to this with +$70 million cash, other deposits all over the place of iron ore and other projects (non iron ore).  I just can't see why Sundance attracts such a premium MC when they are in Africa and with no real infrastructure?  I'm probably going to get hunted down for this comment so I'd better start running!


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## tezz (17 April 2008)

With further drilling the resoursce will probably end up 2 or more bill. tons,I don't think there would be many more Iron ore deposits this big to discover, 
anyway they are close to the steel mills in Europe.
There is no magnatite in this deposit, its all hematite, Itabirite is a banded hematite Quartz laying underneath the main hematite, some of these ironstone quartzes in other area's have contained gold, usually low grade but you never know.


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## Miner (21 April 2008)

I am looking for the Talbout enthusiastics. Of late we do not see them to post anything about that the Holy Cow and great man's charitable acts on investment .
Here u go another piece of his excellent deed reported from ABC Website today. 

*Former Macarthur CEO in discussions over $670m share sale*Posted 3 hours 36 minutes ago 

Macarthur Coal chairman Keith de Lacy has confirmed he has held discussions with mining magnate Ken Talbot about selling his stake in the company.

*Talbot, who is facing 35 charges of corruption relating to a $300,000 loan *he allegedly made to a former state government minister, has resigned as CEO of Macarthur Coal.

Disclaimer : I do have a small parcel of SDL and waiting for my money to be returned when it breaks even. I do not own McCarthur Coal


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## spottygoose (21 April 2008)

Miner, that is very old news. That loan thing has been in the press for well over a year.  You obviously don't think much of Talbot but this is old news and not really relevant to SDL right now.


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## Miner (21 April 2008)

spottygoose said:


> Miner, that is very old news. That loan thing has been in the press for well over a year.  You obviously don't think much of Talbot but this is old news and not really relevant to SDL right now.




Dear Spottygoose

Yes, the old section was about his $300 M . I actually published in this forum long back as well.

New section was McCarthur Coal issue, people's hope that SDL will be revived with his investment (!) and the new reporting by ABC .

It is really immaterial what I think of Talbot or his work. What matters that my money is in his hands and so was my young son's hard earned investment.

SDL is working on a very slow process and there is no light at the end of tunnel 

Thanks for your quick response any way.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2008)

Hi guys,

Its always been on my mind whether SDL was overvalued, undervalued or fairly priced.

I do not hold any but thought I'd run some numbers on it

Interesting read the SDL presentation,

2billion shares fully diluted *@ 25c = $500m mkt cap* (ironically the same as former merger partner GBG)

*Cash = $60m* VERY WELL FUNDED

Top 20 hold 55%

Project = Mbalam 
1,100 Mt - 1,200 Mt @ 39% Fe Target/Historical Resource
100 Mt - 140 Mt @ 60% Fe Target/Historical Resource

They're aiming for production of 35.0 Mtpa

Very low waste to ore ratio = very positive as they have to move alot less dirt

However here is the big negative for me *CAP EX = $3.3Billion*


Now if/once SDL get a JORC up the following EV's would apply, $10/t would apply to the Haematite and $1/t to the Mag

*EV*
1,100 Mt - 1,200 Mt @ 39% Fe @ $1/t = *$430m - $470m*
100 Mt - 140 Mt @ 60% Fe = $600m - $840m

So I get an *EV of $1Billion - $1.3Billion* BUT THIS IS ONLY ONCE THEY GET A JORC

So clearly if they did get all the historical resources JORC'd (very likely imo) it would appear cheap on an EV basis however the CAP EX is a huge deterrent,

Given that the current mkt cap is about half the prospective EV I probably don't see enough value in SDL especially given the CAP EX however it doesn't look expensive either

*I'd probably say fair value atm although high risk*

These are just my silly views guys DYOR


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## grubadoo (11 May 2008)

Found this for interest sakes.

DMOR(Doing my own research)


China among interested investors for Cameroon port
Reuters, Saturday May 10 2008
By Tansa Musa
YAOUNDE, May 10 (Reuters) - Companies from China, Canada and Europe have expressed interest in investing in the building of a $655 million multi-purpose deep seaport in south Cameroon that will serve major mineral export projects, the government said.
The plan for the port to be located at Grand Batanga, 10 km (6 miles) south of Kribi, was presented to potential investors at a two-day meeting that ended Friday in the capital Yaounde.
The projected port facility, whose depth will allow the entry of much larger ships than those currently served by Cameroon's main port of Douala, would consist of four terminals -- for containers, oil products, iron ore and aluminium.
Cameroon's Economy, Planning and Regional Development Minister Louis Paul Motaze told Reuters late on Friday that a Chinese company, China Harbour Engineering Co. (CHEC), had shown interest in taking on the entire project.
Other companies from Canada, Europe and Africa were interested in buying stakes in the port project, whose initial cost was estimated at 282 billion CFA francs ($655 million).
"We have been very encouraged by this enthusiastic response and from the way things are progressing I am now very certain construction work on the first phase will start in 2010 and the first traffic will flow through the port by 2013," Motaze said.
He added the interested investors were insisting on build, operate and transfer (BOT) arrangements for the project. They had requested more information and follow-up meetings would be held before it was decided who the final partners would be.
"We are very willing, ready and determined to invest in this project which I believe will be very beneficial to the people and the economy of Cameroon and the entire Central African sub-region," Edward Xu, a spokesman of China Harbour Engineering Co at the conference, told Reuters.
Douala, which handles 95 percent of the import and export traffic of Cameroon and neighbouring landlocked Central African Republic and Chad, is restricted in the size of the ships it can handle because of its location on the sediment-filled River Wouri estuary. Its position demands constant dredging.
The proposed new deep seaport near Kribi would be able to take much larger vessels and would be linked by road and rail to major iron ore, cobalt, nickel and bauxite mining projects under development in Cameroon's interior, Motaze said.
This included a proposed 490 km (300 mile) railway line between the projected port and the Mbalam iron ore project of The Cameroon Iron Ore Company (CamIron), controlled by Australia's Sundance Resources.
CamIron general manager Roger Bogne told Reuters his company was very keen to invest in the development of the new seaport, at least in the iron ore terminal, so as to have an export outlet for the ore it planned to deliver from Mbalam by 2011.
When completed, the projected port was also expected to serve as a major shipment point for tropical hard wood from south-eastern Cameroon, northern Gabon and Republic of Congo. (For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: http://africa.reuters.com/) (Editing by Pascal Fletcher, David Christian-Edwards)



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7510429


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## adamim1 (19 May 2008)

Good Announcement today 

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...lc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZGVsYXllZC5qc3A=


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 May 2008)

Hmmmm its almost as if SDL thought what the DMM already have a JORC out and we've been working alot longer than them, we better hurry lol


*JORC 190Mt's@60%Fe = 114Mt's DSO Haematite*

Value I'd say $5/t = $570m = 28.5c SDL, (trading pretty close to fair value)

Note even though some would argue a heavy discounting of $5/t EV given SDL is in Africa and the Cap Ex is huge (ie $3.5Billion+) I have chosen $5/t as SDL has a very very large Magnetite target "Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of Itabirite mineralisation" = *2Bt's-2.5Bt's@35%-45%Fe*


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## springhill (28 May 2008)

Interesting moves on this in the last 2 days.... sellers in the 23-26 range where it hovered for a while seem to have been cleared out. Now at the 30 cent level, which has not been seen for a while. Volume seems to be moving a little quicker in the last day or so. News pending? we all know this thing leaks like a sieve.... would not suprise me in the least. Thoughts?


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## springhill (28 May 2008)

HA what a suprise, like bloody clockwork isnt it?
SDL announcement 190 million tonne Jorc compliant..... blah blah blah
Can see these things coming a mile away with this company, bit of a disgrace IMO


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## mayk (28 May 2008)

Well I don't think it is new news. It is just a wash up for the real news comming soon. Read the post of young trader.

It is just a tactic of avoiding a speeding ticket...


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## golfmos123 (28 May 2008)

Yes - no new news at all.  Just the expression of old news into an easier to understand way.

There were some nice little hints in there .....

"releasing regular resource updates over the next 6 months"

"will report initial JORC inferred resource for itabirite at Mbarga in next quarter"

"we expect to see significant growth in value for the company as we progressively report JORC compliant resources through 2008"

Would be very nice to see the SP not slip too much after the gloss of today.   Massive volume today too - 126M still with 25 min to go.......


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## jonojpsg (28 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hmmmm its almost as if SDL thought what the DMM already have a JORC out and we've been working alot longer than them, we better hurry lol
> 
> 
> *JORC 190Mt's@60%Fe = 114Mt's DSO Haematite*
> ...




Not sure quite why you have taken down the 190Mt's by the 60%Fe content YT?  Usually IO is valued at a per tonne value for whatever quantity of DSO they have, not the actual tonnage of iron itself.
In which case, they should be 

190Mt's x $5/tonne = $950m = 47.5c SDL which might indicate why the SP is seeing some movement.


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## Lucky_Country (28 May 2008)

Some serious publicity for SDL in the media I would imagine after today.
Cant imagine many letting their shares go too cheaply after today and will be more closely held imo.


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## adobee (28 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????
> 
> ...




Out of interest  -
Whats the reference to Clive Palmer ? has he made some statements in regards to Mag ? LRF owns a chunk of sdl.. ? i am just trying to connect the dots..


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## qeegbill (29 May 2008)

I was looking to invest I think this stock represents good long term value - but the politics of Cameroon gave me cold feet.  My internet searches revealled that there has been a lot of controversy regarding the last three elections.  International observers all reported serious concerns regarding the legitimacy of the vote.  President Biya is aiming to change the constitution so that he could have another six year term in office (shades of Zimbabwe???).  The opposition said that they will use "whatever means possible" to change this state of affairs.  There have also been "food riots" recently with dozens of deaths and 1600 arrested.  They surely need the investment dollar.  Has anyone got any other information that could reassure me?
Thanks  

*DYOR*

I do not currently hold SDL shares.


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## cordelia (29 May 2008)

Anywhere in africa is risky especially for the long term. Ghana is a pretty safe place. I lived there for 11 years on and off. There's a few companies with interests there. That was a lot of shares changing hands yesterday. I wonder what will happen today. For all those buyers there were sellers taking profits....I might take a look when it pulls back a bit.....


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## adobee (29 May 2008)

qeegbill said:


> I was looking to invest I think this stock represents good long term value - but the politics of Cameroon gave me cold feet.  My internet searches revealled that there has been a lot of controversy regarding the last three elections.  International observers all reported serious concerns regarding the legitimacy of the vote.  President Biya is aiming to change the constitution so that he could have another six year term in office (shades of Zimbabwe???).  The opposition said that they will use "whatever means possible" to change this state of affairs.  There have also been "food riots" recently with dozens of deaths and 1600 arrested.  They surely need the investment dollar.  Has anyone got any other information that could reassure me?
> Thanks
> 
> *DYOR*
> ...





I would suggest reading Young Traders posts on DMM thread which refer to SDL value before making a purchase..


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## adobee (29 May 2008)

adobee said:


> Out of interest  -
> Whats the reference to Clive Palmer ? has he made some statements in regards to Mag ? LRF owns a chunk of sdl.. ? i am just trying to connect the dots..




My bad i was refering to clive doner not clive palmer.. however i have just read clive palmer has a new resources company in the works


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## jonojpsg (29 May 2008)

You only have to look a little further back up this page to see the value of SDL should be around 47c, purely based on their DSO JORC.  When you include the potentially billion+ tonnes of itabirite as well, I think there is scope for moves back to previous all time highs, especially as we move closer to 09.


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## hotmail222 (29 May 2008)

Strong start again this morning 

30 mins after open
Volume - 33,710,001
Last $0.39


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## tezz (29 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Oh wow, yep certainly right 1.8Billion Shares @ 26c = $500m crazy!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> I thought that they did some share consolidation back from when they were a 2c stock????????
> 
> ...




you are leading people astray, there is no magnetite in SDL's deposit, itabirite is a banded form of hematite and quartz, Go to SDL's website and read the reports.


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## qeegbill (29 May 2008)

adobee said:


> I would suggest reading Young Traders posts on DMM thread which refer to SDL value before making a purchase..




Thanks I'll check it out.

The other worry with SDL is the 500 km of railway, the development of port facilities, and now apparently a benefication plant.  Still the average wage in Cameroon is around US$1000 pa.  - so if the CAPEX can be found the OPEX should be smaller than in Australia.  

Good luck to all SDL holders.

DYOR

I am not a holder of SDL


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## Lucky_Country (30 May 2008)

Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Kevin Andrusiak | May 29, 2008 
SOMETIMES, and it doesn't happen very often when it comes to iron ore, it pays to have the right help.

At the moment, Sundance Resources is flying, but it took the market more than a week to cotton on to the good news about its Mbalam project in Cameroon. 

Don't call it a mosquito-infested swamp, it's a 190 million tonne, direct-ship project that could make a lot of people, including investors, very rich. 

Sundance revealed the maiden resource for the project on May 19 and the market barely batted an eye. 

That was bizarre, to say the least, given that it mentioned direct ship, hematite and iron ore all in the same sentence. 

If you want to see what the mere mention of the phrase “iron ore” can do to a share price, have a look at Black Fire Energy. 

But back to Sundance. Just yesterday, company managing director Don Lewis had what is called an “open briefing”. These are heavily prepared interviews, but they usually do provide good, sanitised detail about what is going on in a company. 

Lewis said the board believed Sundance was “significantly undervalued” and that “significant growth” was expected. He also said the resource was attracting “significant supply interest” from major iron ore customers. 

Don't get us wrong, there's probably no one in the world who has written the word “significant” more often than Daily Assay. 

And aside from that, 190 million tonnes of hematite ore - with moderate grades of silica and alumina and low levels of phosphorous - are not to be sniffed at. The world needs it and Sundance has got it. 

What Lewis didn't say is just how much it will cost Sundance, but expect the final capital cost to be upwards of $US3.5 billion ($3.64 billion). Lewis did say that operating cashflow from 35 million tonnes of annual production would be $US1 billion a year. 

On the day of the briefing, Sundance shares shot up a whopping 37 per cent, while the market went in the opposite direction. About 9 per cent of the company's capital was traded, while the guys at Concord Capital were probably found crying into their beer, lamenting the fact they had sold out in early April. 

That is, assuming they weren't piling back in on May 28. 

Actually, about 30 per cent of the company's share register has turned over in the last week, according to chairman George Jones. 

Jones put the run-up in Sundance shares on May 28 down to the fact that the market had a better understanding of the company’s potential, through the open briefing, and that Sundance was attracting a lot of attention overseas. 

His other interest, Gindalbie Metals, isn't doing too badly either, doubling its market capitalisation in May. 

In fact, Sundance shares are still a long way from the recent highs of last September/October. 

But Daily Assay would forgive you if you had a nagging feeling that something bigger was going on at Sundance. And no, Jones isn't proposing again that Gindalbie and Sundance become one. 

Maybe it’s the Chinese - they are in the region and spending up big on iron ore projects. 

Lewis did mention the “significant” supply interest from iron ore customers in Asia and Europe. 

Sometimes you do have to highlight the positive. 

andrusiakk@theaustralian.com.au 
Story Tools


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## kervz (1 June 2008)

In regards to the article above, about the Chinese in Africa looking for iron ore projects, this was published in a Cameroon newspaper where SDL are located, its about Sinosteel 

http://www.africaintelligence.com/C/modules/login/detailart/LoginDetailArt.asp?lang=ang&service=art&comment=&context=boi&doc_i_id=41951261


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## X888 (1 June 2008)

kervz said:


> In regards to the article above, about the Chinese in Africa looking for iron ore projects, this was published in a Cameroon newspaper where SDL are located, its about Sinosteel
> 
> http://www.africaintelligence.com/C/modules/login/detailart/LoginDetailArt.asp?lang=ang&service=art&comment=&context=boi&doc_i_id=41951261




Does anyone have the full article ?

Thanks

...........................................................


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## Miner (2 June 2008)

X888 said:


> Does anyone have the full article ?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> ...........................................................




Hmm
It appears the article is to be bought from the site. 
There seems to be gone are the days when there was a free newsarticle available from web


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## kingbrown (2 June 2008)

You guys would have to be happy with todays performance 
After uming and arring for so long on this stock  
had to jump in today 

She closed up with a rocket under it at around .47 
Up 22 odd percent

is .50 knocking ??


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## Lucky_Country (2 June 2008)

Could easily reach its all time highs within days imo.
Close to 100 million traded today you need 94 million for just 5% so any of the big boys will have to keep the volume turning over if they want a decent stake in the company.


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## lioness (3 June 2008)

Buying on this is out of control, something big is coming. Surely we would see some change of substantial's coming in soon.

Are we looking at the next FMG?


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## Lucky_Country (3 June 2008)

Absolutely something big is happening !
Substantial shareholders notice cannot be far off.
Im looking for some serious good news I feel the resource may be a massive one of DSO as the have only just started drilling and already have 290 million tonnes.
Plus the new exploration licence untouched drilling wise.


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## lioness (3 June 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Absolutely something big is happening !
> Substantial shareholders notice cannot be far off.
> Im looking for some serious good news I feel the resource may be a massive one of DSO as the have only just started drilling and already have 290 million tonnes.
> Plus the new exploration licence untouched drilling wise.




Yes, must be a massive upgrade to resource definition coming.

Could this be the next FMG we have all been looking for?

I think it has got abig chance of that really when looking at the size and scale. Stay on the horse for now.


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## tezz (3 June 2008)

The stock was holding well at 51.5 untill the profit takers came in,
Regarding their deposit, I thought in the last ann. that all up was about 2 bll. tons of hematite and itabirite,
If anything has leaked out of Africa it might be they have interested contractors for the rail and port,
Or SDL could be a take over target,
Looking at todays trades there were alot of XT on the transactions, anyone know what this is?


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## ThingyMajiggy (4 June 2008)

People profit taking now? Was holding at the 49-50 for a fair while, dropped back, is there an announcement coming up for these guys anytime soon?


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## hoppielimp (4 June 2008)

tezz,

Regarding what is a XT, this has been on a few threads, however suggest you go to the following link, which will give you a better understanding.

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/crossings.htm


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## tezz (5 June 2008)

Thanks thats quite a read,
Looks like the June selling has started early, hope SDL holds off with ann. until July, Friday probably another sell off


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 June 2008)

I have to admit I am completely blown away by SDL's performance, not only did it get to 50c+ which was like 75% above where I THOUGHT fair value was it has held and now seems to be building a base around 38c-40c

Makes me scratch my head at the valuation difference between SDL and DMM 

But also makes me sit up and take note that there maybe more than meets the eye with the SDL team




YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *JORC 190Mt's@60%Fe = 114Mt's DSO Haematite*
> 
> Value I'd say $5/t = $570m = 28.5c SDL, (trading pretty close to fair value)
> 
> Note even though some would argue a heavy discounting of $5/t EV given SDL is in Africa and the Cap Ex is huge (ie $3.5Billion+) I have chosen $5/t as SDL has a very very large Magnetite target "Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of Itabirite mineralisation" = *2Bt's-2.5Bt's@35%-45%Fe*


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## Lucky_Country (17 June 2008)

SDL is like any other project it has its challanges but the goodies will be sweet !
Im going to enjoy the ride hope you all join us.


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## spottygoose (18 June 2008)

Thanks to TweetyPie for below:

Source: www.railwaygazette.com

Miners in the market
17 Jun 2008

AFRICA: As two European companies start work on short-term contracts to rescue the existing railway networks in the Democractic Republic of Congo, word reaches us of ambitious plans to build more than 3 000 km of new railway in that country, together with further spending on roads, hospitals and hydro-electric power projects.

Although few details have been released, the investment package outlined by Infrastructure Minister Pierre Lumbi on May 9 forms part of a US$9bn agreement between DRC and China, which will give the Chinese access to more than 10 million tonnes of copper and 600 000 tonnes of cobalt in mineral-rich Katanga province over 30 years. The idea is to form a joint venture owned 32% by DRC's state-owned mining company Gecamines and 68% by Chinese firms including China Railway Engineering Corp and Sinohydro. The Chinese would build the transport corridors needed to move the minerals to the Atlantic coast and other routes connecting the north and south of the country, which Lumbi said would provide 'the foundation on which the growth of our economy is going to be built'.

In Cameroon, meanwhile, Australian mining group Sundance Resources has a concession to develop iron ore reserves at Mbalam, near the border with Congo Brazzaville. These are expected to generate around 35 million tonnes of haematite each year for export to Europe, India and China. The company told investors last month that it had identified a preferred route for the 490 km standard-gauge railway which would link the mine to a proposed port at Lolabi, around 140 km south of Douala. Sundance hopes to start construction by mid-2009, with the first ore to be shipped in mid-2012.

The continuing search for minerals could see the revival of railway operations in Sierra Leone, which abandoned its national network in the 1970s. African Minerals Ltd confirmed on May 7 that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with the government to build and operate a 150 km railway between its iron ore project at Tonkolili and the deep-water port of Pepel near Freetown.

This route would incorporate the 66 km line built in 1933 to carry ore from the Sierra Leone Development Co mines at Marampa, but consultants have been appointed to look at converting the near-derelict 1 067 mm gauge line to standard gauge. Africa Minerals believes the Tonkolili reserves could generate up to 25 million tonnes a year.


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## Kiwi Nap (18 June 2008)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> I'm pretty sure SDL'S only assest is CAM Iron in SA. They only paid 250k for this, and in shares I think. Infrastructure costs for CAM are high and its probable it will never get off the ground. In fact, considering this is their only real asset, and SDL'S market cap, its a bit of a joke that SDL are a listed company and how their market cap is justified..
> 
> Apart from the aforementioned, SDL are sparse on announcements except for Appendix 3B'S in which they issue themselves/directors bulk shares regularily, and have a heap on issue.
> 
> ...




Freeballing - If you are only "pretty sure" then perhaps you should not respond to people with such ill informed replies. For one, I suggest you research Talbot - major share holder with a fantastic track record and perhaps study SDL more thoroughly. As a long term hold SDL have billion + tonnes of good grade IO and the finance structured to build the rail and port infrastructure along with MOU with the Cameroon Govt. SDL - IMO is a very positive long term prospect.


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## Piggy Bank (18 June 2008)

Kiwi Nap said:


> Freeballing - If you are only "pretty sure" then perhaps you should not respond to people with such ill informed and idiotic replies. For one, I suggest you research Talbot - major share holder with a fantastic track record and perhaps study SDL more thoroughly. As a long term hold SDL have billion + tonnes of good grade IO and the finance structured to build the rail and port infrastructure along with MOU with the Cameroon Govt. SDL - IMO is a very positive long term prospect. You are an idiot, check you facts before you make an ass of yourself next time.




Hello Kiwi Nap,

Welcome to the SDL forum.  I see this is your first post.

I am a bit confused about your apparent attack on "Freeballing".  As far as I can see their post about SDL that you have quoted was posted on "27th-September-2006, 12:57 AM" which was when this thread was first started.  SDL was a very different company back in those days.  Nearly two years have passed since then...

A polite apology may be in order.


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## pennystock (22 June 2008)

Hi Everyone,

I see that SDL has been viewed as the next FMG maybe! I have been looking back at historical charts on FMG and the likes of PDN which also had an exceptional rise in past years but one thing I have noticed from my research is FMG and PDN only traded in the 10's of thousands to say a million plus where SDL is trading 10's of millions well up to 100 million surely the amount of shares on offer would reduce the likely hood of a share price anywhere near the likes of FMG. Am I right or can anyone please explain different.

Thanks in advance... :0)


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## Lucky_Country (22 June 2008)

If someone wants a 5% stake in a company its 5% regardless of the ammount of shares on issue.
FMG now has 2.4 billion shares so if SDL reaches $10 I will be happy.


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## pennystock (22 June 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> If someone wants a 5% stake in a company its 5% regardless of the ammount of shares on issue.
> FMG now has 2.4 billion shares so if SDL reaches $10 I will be happy.




Hi Lucky_Country

So what your saying is as long as everything goes to plan SDL could be worth 10-11 dollars in the next 4 years? I think I read somewhere SDL had 2 billion on offer at the mo. I know price predictions are off limits here but this is your assumtion or thoughts.


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## Lucky_Country (22 June 2008)

I cant see any reason why SDL market cap cant rival that of FMGs at the momment if market conditions for IO stay in demand.
SDL has alot of work to do to get there obviously but Im backing them to give it a good go in the timeframe they have stated.
The Chinese will be pushing for more diverse supply across the world so they have the backing and will be given a helping hand imo.


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## Sean K (23 June 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> I cant see any reason why SDL market cap cant rival that of FMGs at the momment if market conditions for IO stay in demand.



SDL have the same tonnage (or potential), and grades, and infrastructure, and offtake agreements, etc etc as FMG? 

OK.

I do note it is probably undervalued on Mbalam alone at $2.50 tn DSO. Average is about $10 isn't it? Must be location...

Any idea on the Capex to get it up and running? 490km to port....eeeek 

They really should consolidate the shares one day....


edit: I see initial estimated capex is about $3.27b. Operation don't start till 2012. 

No Asian interest yet? Surprising.


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## Lucky_Country (23 June 2008)

kennas said:


> SDL have the same tonnage (or potential), and grades, and infrastructure, and offtake agreements, etc etc as FMG?
> 
> OK.
> 
> ...



Come back in 2012 and we will see how things are shaping up LOL !
SDL is in the early stages of development with all the good news to come.
Construction to start next year so alot of news flow between now and then if not a believer just dont buy easy as that !


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## Sean K (23 June 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Come back in 2012 and we will see how things are shaping up LOL !
> SDL is in the early stages of development with all the good news to come.
> Construction to start next year so alot of news flow between now and then if not a believer just dont buy easy as that !



I may buy it if there was decent analysis been provided here to convince me.

'Come back in 2012' doesn't quite cut it Lucky_Country. I don't think I'll buy just yet on that analysis. LOL 

As I said though, looks undervalued on a current JORC to MC. But maybe for a reason at the moment. Capex is the major problem. There's a lot of work to be done to convince the banks and investors to fork out $3b ++ (probably much more due to current inflation etc) to get it up and running. 

Obviously FMG were able to do it, so it's on the cards. Different company of course with higher quality assets, and different country. Needs a big Asian backer I feel to get it moving.


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## jonojpsg (23 June 2008)

There are some other projects in surrounding areas that some Chinese companies are developing aren't there - with the potential to share the $3b+ capital cost around.  Obviously the biggest part of the $3b is going to be the rail and port, which could be multi-user if there were other interested parties???

Just a thought.


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## Lucky_Country (24 June 2008)

LONDON (AFP) ”” Anglo-Australian mining group Rio Tinto said Monday that it had agreed a near doubling of the price of its iron ore sales to Chinese steel maker Baosteel.

Prices are to increase by 80-97 percent depending on the category of iron ore, which is a vital raw material used to make steel.

"Rio Tinto Iron Ore subsidiary Hamersley Iron has today reached agreement with China's Baosteel on the price for Hamersley iron ore deliveries for the contract year commencing 1 April 2008," said a statement issued by Rio Tinto.

A spokesman for Rio Tinto said the deal was "very significant," as iron ore is one of the three main drivers of Rio Tinto's earnings, along with copper and aluminium.

"The increase is higher than the 71 percent and 65 percent settlements announced by Brazilian mining giant Vale earlier in the year, reflecting both the strength of the market and an indication of the proximity of Rio Tinto's iron ore to its customers," the spokesman added.

Under this agreement, Rio will sell Pilbara Blend Fines/Yandicoogina Fines to Baosteel for 144.66 US cents per dry metric tonne unit.

Pilbara Blend Lump will cost 201.69 US cents per dry metric tonne unit


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## hangseng (24 June 2008)

You don't have to look too hard to find information on Sundance Resources.

I particularly like this excerpt: "...*first shipment to external markets of iron ore exploited in Cameroon will take place in 2011*,” Bogne said in an interview with API. “*The project is well on course, there are no hitches*.”"


http://africanpress.wordpress.com/2008/02/22/cameroon-to-start-exporting-iron-ore-in-2011/
By Tansa Musa
YAOUNDE. The Cameroon Iron Ore Company (CamIron), controlled by Australia’s Sundance Resources, will export iron ore from its $2.46 billion Mbalam iron ore project by 2011, its general manager said on Thursday.

Roger Bogne said feasibility studies and environmental assessments will be submitted before the end of February, and the company should reach a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the government by March, paving the way for Cameroon to issue an exploitation permit.

“We plan to start constructing project infrastructure by the beginning of next year and I can assure you that the first shipment to external markets of iron ore exploited in Cameroon will take place in 2011,” Bogne said in an interview with API. “The project is well on course, there are no hitches.”

Officials at Cameroon’s Ministry of Mines, Industries and Technological Development said, in anticipation of next month’s signing, that Cameroon had set up a task force to draft the memorandum of understanding which spells out the terms of iron exploitation.

CamIron was founded in 2005 to develop an area of 875 square km at Mbalam, 300 km from Yaounde in southeastern Cameroon. In 2006, Australian iron ore miner Sundance Resources Limited acquired 90 percent of its shares.

The iron ore deposits were discovered between 1976 and 1984 by the United Nations Development Fund (UNDF) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). Cameroon’s Ministry of Mines, Industries and Technological Development estimates CamIron’s exploration area contains iron deposits of between 800 million and 1 billion tonnes, including 218 million tonnes of high grade ore.

Sundance said an October 2006 study indicated the area had the potential to be developed into a very large, low-cost producer of high grade ore.

“The government of Cameroon attaches great importance to this project … given its capacity to produce 35 million tonnes of iron ore a year over a period of 20 years,” Mines, Industries and Technological Development Minister Badel Ndinga Ndanga said last week, urging CamIron to press ahead quickly.

The Mbalam project involves the development of a mine, crushing and screening plant, and stockpiling facilities. A 470-km long railway line will be constructed to link Mbalam to the Atlantic coast at Logbabe, where a deep-sea export terminal will be developed to handle large ocean-going vessels.

This infrastructure is also expected to open the way into remote southeastern Cameroon for other investors and boost tourism in a region rich in wildlife, particularly western lowland gorillas.

The Mbalam area is part of an iron ore province in the Archean Congo Craton that spans three countries, including Cameroon, the Congo Republic and Gabon. The iron deposits of Gabon are best known and are centred on the deposits at Belinga. Previous evaluation in Gabon by Kumba Resources Ltd of South Africa in the Batoula/Boka Boka region, 140 km south of Mbalam and 50 km east of Belinga, indicated a resource of 850 million tonnes of 60% Fe.

According to Sundance, the resources within Cameroon are typical supergene hematite enrichments of the Archean banded iron formation protore which has been recrystallised to ferruginous quartzite or itabirite. They occur in a similar geological setting to large iron ore deposits mined in the past in Liberia, in neighbouring Gabon, and currently being evaluated in Guinea.

Work undertaken in the Mbalam area indicated hematite mineralisation extending over two kilometres along strike at widths of up to 600m but more commonly at 400m.
Published by Korir, API africanpress@getmail.no


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## Lucky_Country (24 June 2008)

Great article a big plus for SDL maybe its true potential is starting to be realised.
Hangseng are you in the Sundancer club ?


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## hangseng (24 June 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Great article a big plus for SDL maybe its true potential is starting to be realised.
> Hangseng are you in the Sundancer club ?




Not sure about that, but I am a holder of SDL, a stock I happen to believe will be developing a lot quicker than a lot of people think.

I had an opportunity to buy FMG some time ago sub 40c and decided not to. We all make mistakes don't we 

I won't be making the same mistake twice.


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## Lucky_Country (24 June 2008)

Yep I remember the sub 40c FMG days ahh gotta love that hindsight.
SDL has the same characteristics as FMG but with the difference of people believing the commodities story.
BHPB today did a presentation with expansions scheduled until 2015 so al bodes well for the stronger for longer cycle.


----------



## stockt12 (25 June 2008)

hangseng said:


> Not sure about that, but I am a holder of SDL, a stock I happen to believe will be developing a lot quicker than a lot of people think.
> 
> I had an opportunity to buy FMG some time ago sub 40c and decided not to. We all make mistakes don't we
> 
> I won't be making the same mistake twice.





I am looking to come onboard with SDL because of the same reason. My heart still pains considering how many times I was told to BUY FMG.

Unfortunately life/family illness et all were a priority and now I am searching far and wide for another fortescue so that I can provide for those around me. May sound a little silly, but it's one of my primary goals.


----------



## prawn_86 (25 June 2008)

I think everyone is searching for the next FMG.

Dont be disappointed if you dont find it though...


----------



## stockt12 (25 June 2008)

so true mate..

I'll never be disappointed, it'll just be a massive bonus and/or a squaring of the ledger if one does take off.


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## Miner (25 June 2008)

stockt12 said:


> I am looking to come onboard with SDL because of the same reason. My heart still pains considering how many times I was told to BUY FMG.
> 
> Unfortunately life/family illness et all were a priority and now I am searching far and wide for another fortescue so that I can provide for those around me. May sound a little silly, but it's one of my primary goals.




Mate

Do not want to disappoint you as I also bought SDL at 40 cents and did not sell at 80 cents then part sold at 43 cents recently

SDL is not FMG, similarly DMM is not FMG either - let us have no illusion

Lot of factors: ore body, place of mining, leadership, depth of excavation, organisation culture, percentage of FE with other gangue materials, opportunities, sea borne path, market environment, and finally LUCK. Andrew Forest was not lucky or stars did not click for murin murin anaconda but he showered with every thing right for him at FMG


Probably it would be worthwhile to grab the opportunity but will not hope for anohter FMG. Remember what Kerry Packer said about Alan Bond when the later bought Channel Nine at high price and sold at throw away price to Packer back. KP said there is only Alan Bond . So there is only one Andrew Forest (I am not a publicist for Andrew and do not hold FMG any more either) 

I still hold some SDL though


----------



## stockt12 (27 June 2008)

So true...

but rather than miss out on an opportunity, this time I will cover each and every base than I can so I give a little more to those around me. 

Time to keep searching/researching.


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## Goldmann (27 June 2008)

will export iron ore from its $2.46 billion Mbalam iron ore project by *2011,* yayyayaya 100 characherts

there is way better plays for gain than SDL...  ahhh... Fort was in the pilbara...this mob africa. no comparison... iron ore done its dash. look at CSG or mineral sands or coal... iron ore done for a bit .. and if you are going to do ore. pick a smaller option. GBG, murch. SDL... i think alot of people got sold on the next FMG (yep even me).


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## LRG (27 June 2008)

goldmann, if not SDL and there are better plays - what are they then? 

I thought with the Mngmt team Talbot etc this was a v good long term prospect.  Mabe not a twiggy but maybe a 50% twiggy in 2011/12?

NSL is a good play at the moment - has been 2c to 10c - but a real specie.  it does not have the market cap, smarts or $'s invested in feasibility that SDL has.


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## Miner (27 June 2008)

LRG said:


> goldmann, if not SDL and there are better plays - what are they then?
> 
> I thought with the Mngmt team Talbot etc this was a v good long term prospect.  Mabe not a twiggy but maybe a 50% twiggy in 2011/12?
> 
> NSL is a good play at the moment - has been 2c to 10c - but a real specie.  it does not have the market cap, smarts or $'s invested in feasibility that SDL has.




Hi LRG sorry to bump in and goldman please excuse me for gate crashing 

I believe AQA and AUROX are two good players as I heard from my geo friend in one of the two largest miners

Both of them are better than many small  and med iron players and have sound management

Just my


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## adluroil (28 June 2008)

Hi All SDL Lovers   Shouldnt  there be some announcement soon . A possible further upgrade 
Must be waiting for the new financial year . I own SDL and i believe it will move from 40 Cents
a lot faster than FMG Did considering the price of IO today and the closeness of markets .
Also operating costs of the mine are going to be a lot cheaper we are told. 
My opinion only i am not a financial adviser


----------



## Miner (29 June 2008)

adluroil said:


> Hi All SDL Lovers   Shouldnt  there be some announcement soon . A possible further upgrade
> Must be waiting for the new financial year . I own SDL and i believe it will move from 40 Cents
> a lot faster than FMG Did considering the price of IO today and the closeness of markets .
> Also operating costs of the mine are going to be a lot cheaper we are told.
> My opinion only i am not a financial adviser




HI Adluroil

No comments on your great wishes and let them be true

But without any technical data to back it up, I would not compare SDL with FMG. I have recently explained why SDL is not and can not be FMG

Good luck and be brave


----------



## Lucky_Country (29 June 2008)

SDL and FMG have obvious comparisons but FMG is earning and will be right through the IO boom where as SDL will have 4 years less high income from the boom.
SDL has great potential and resouces may suprise on the upside and be good quality ore.


----------



## hangseng (29 June 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> SDL and FMG have obvious comparisons but FMG is earning and will be right through the IO boom where as SDL will have 4 years less high income from the boom.
> SDL has great potential and resouces may suprise on the upside and be good quality ore.




"...good quality ore"

An understatement Lucky_Country.

This is a statement from a geologist associate of mine who specialises in Fe working in West Africa:
"The most economically important hematite deposits are found within Archean and Proterozoic banded iron formations, BIF (Itabirite)." You don't have to look far to quantify his statement.

Banded Iron Formations, which are locally known as "Itabrites" are recognised in ore of iron as the most valuable of Fe.  The hematite and magnetite concentrations in BIF are much sought after by mining companies worldwide and SDL has a resource in Cameroon made up of BIF and it is expanding this to potentially a DSO resource which could easily be equal to, if not much larger than FMG' deposits. Also SDL isn't reliant on the ongoing argument over additional shared rail access, that is simply a given for SDL.

Mbalam is a significant Fe deposit and extends to the South East of Cameroon into the DRC region. Sundance has reported on this many times. Also note the consistency of reporting of the term "Itabrite" and "BIF" by Sundance in regard to the extension area being drilled/defined at the moment.

Make no mistake Sundance will be a significant Fe company. The analogy with FMG is not as far fetched as some indicate. Also remember FMG had to fund the complete railway required to ship to port. The Mbalam rail will be constructed as a major part of the deepwater port development which has the Chinese pawing all over Cameroon. This is not a sole cost to SDL as it was with FMG nor does SDL management have to do a Twiggy and run to the world for financing, it is a major strategic infrastructure development within Cameroon.

Some use the throw away line that SDL is in Africa, so what. Cameroon will be a major iron ore exporter and SDL has the complete support of the Cameroon govt via CamIron. As I posted from the cited article previously:
"The government of Cameroon attaches great importance to this project … given its capacity to produce 35 million tonnes of iron ore a year over a period of 20 years,” Mines, Industries and Technological Development Minister Badel Ndinga Ndanga said last week, urging CamIron to press ahead quickly."


An analogy with CVRD deposits has also been used:

"The permit area held by Sundance has greater similarities to the Archaean iron ore deposits held by CVRD in Brazil. The ore at Mbalam has been broadly described as an itabirite, following the terminology of the Brazilian deposits. The itabirite is a Banded Iron Formation deposit with high grade hematite enrichment. 

Our permit area forms part of a larger iron ore province within the Archaean
Congo Craton which spans south east Cameroon, into Congo and Gabon. The
region is growing in stature as a major iron ore province."

_source: http://www.corporatefile.com.au/documents/OB/Project Growth Potential 16.05.2007.pdf_

SDL potentially another FMG? IMO most definately a possibility, and it is already indicated as moving ahead a lot quicker than FMG did. 2011 is not that far away and SDL has already indicated BFS completion in 2008.

SDL is a very exciting Fe prospect indeed and cannot be easily understated.


----------



## adluroil (29 June 2008)

Hangseng: I agree with you 100%  Also there is greater probablility that IO prices will be higher in 2011 than they are now. 
The Capex was done before these new huge IO price increases 
100% increases . I am sure the Capex is not going to increase by 100%. 
All calculations are being done on worst price scenarios and it is still under valued. And they are adding to the resource.? You dont have to be very 
good at maths to come to some conclusion here.


----------



## hangseng (30 June 2008)

adluroil said:


> Hangseng: I agree with you 100%  Also there is greater probablility that IO prices will be higher in 2011 than they are now.
> The Capex was done before these new huge IO price increases
> 100% increases . I am sure the Capex is not going to increase by 100%.
> All calculations are being done on worst price scenarios and it is still under valued. And they are adding to the resource.? You dont have to be very
> good at maths to come to some conclusion here.




Sundance is simply a no brainer for me now aduroil, probably the easiest investment decision I have ever made. All of the reports an information point toward SDL being a low cost, world class BIF Fe operation now, with full local and Govt support. Big financiers will flock to this as some already have at 40c a share (Sarich/Talbot), watch the next and biggest come in as guaranteed "offtake" agreements


----------



## Piggy Bank (1 July 2008)

"Further to confirmation of the expiry of unlisted options dated 30 May 2008, the directors of Sundance
Resources Limited (ASX: SDL) wish to advise that one option exercisable at 3 cents and expiring on 30 June
2008 has not been exercised and therefore has expired."

What a joke of an announcement!  One option worth 3 cents not exercised!  I realise that the company needs to formally notify the market but what a waste of time.  Looking forward to some real news.  My 3 cents


----------



## hangseng (1 July 2008)

This might help.

23 Monday June 2008  6:57 

"Mbalam iron ore project increases capacity"  

"International iron ore company Sundance Resources Ltd has provided an update on exploration activities at its 90%-owned Mbalam Iron Ore Project in Cameroon, West Africa.Drilling capacity at the Mbalam Project has been substantially increased with six rigs now on site. Five of these rigs are currently operating with the final rig expected to be commissioned this weekend.The new drilling capacity includes the two new Thor Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling rigs manufactured in South Africa and two RC rigs and a diamond drilling rig supplied by international drilling contractor Ausdrill. In total, Sundance has four RC rigs and two diamond rigs on site. This will significantly enhance drilling productivity and enable the Company to accelerate its assessment of both Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) and itabirite hematite mineralization at Mbalam.Sundance has an extensive exploration program planned for 2008 with a total exploration budget of approximately $35 million which is fully funded from the company’s existing cash reserves of $62 million. Two RC rigs and two diamond rigs are currently testing the extent and depth of the resource potential on the Mbarga prospect. One RC rig is currently testing the Mbarga South prospect, which was identified during surface mapping and preliminary drilling in the December quarter. It is intended to shortly dispatch two of the RC rigs to start drilling the Metzimevin prospect in the June quarter.Sundance CEO Mr Don Lewis said: “We are pleased with the initial performance of the new rigs and are already seeing the benefits of increased drilling rates. The new RC rigs are drilling to depths of up to 300m and the diamond rigs will continue to drill holes to 300-500m depth–We continue to be encouraged by the progress of exploration at Mbalam and expect to progressively announce tonnage ranges for both DSO and itabirite hematite mineralisation.”


----------



## discman (2 July 2008)

*broker report from BBY*

A very encourage broker report from BBY
They value the share price at $4.26 per share by 2013. 

That is more than 1400% in 5 years. (currently at $0.30)

BBY broker report

Wow, I must be dreaming...


----------



## indigotiling (2 July 2008)

such positive news regarding sdl,and the best is yet to come but the stock is still dropping.im happy to wait for the pot of gold.

just my opinion.


----------



## hangseng (4 July 2008)

*Re: broker report from BBY*



discman said:


> A very encourage broker report from BBY
> They value the share price at $4.26 per share by 2013.
> 
> That is more than 1400% in 5 years. (currently at $0.30)
> ...




I don't think you are dreaming discman. BBY has it right in my opinion.

I patiently await the BIF (Itabrite) drilling results. This will be very positive and I believe cause a significant re-rating of SDL. The port and rail line isn't being built just because of a 1Bt resource, this will be much bigger I believe.


----------



## Sean K (4 July 2008)

*Re: broker report from BBY*



hangseng said:


> I don't think you are dreaming discman. BBY has it right in my opinion.



Interesting report. I like the peer comparison with the recent deals in Brazil. Should be worth around $1 a tn....

Funding's the issue. Once (if) they get a bit investor on board should be rerated.


----------



## discman (7 July 2008)

*Re: broker report from BBY*



kennas said:


> Funding's the issue. Once (if) they get a bit investor on board should be rerated.




I agree funding is the issue, luckily, it already had a big player on board. Talbot is holding 19.9% of the company.

In current credit market, all Junior resource companies are facing same difficulty when come to funding.  With the help from big player (like Talbot), I think, at less it will have better chance when compare with other Juniors.


----------



## RP_Automotive (10 July 2008)

With the latest stock performance it seems alot of SDL people are just in for the short term. At 25c a share this a chest of gold. I can understand there is still risk, but the chances of SDL not confirming a nice amount of Fe and the recent (and continuing) rise in commodity prices, its looking good.

I'll see you all in the foyer of the Hilton at any location around the world in 5 years time.


----------



## ocelot (10 July 2008)

Whilst I am keeping investment in SDL the current price makes me want to find some more $$$ and buy some more. Wonder when she is going to turn around?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (10 July 2008)

Those 2 transactions BBY cite make me think has a new Benchmark been set for Mag worldwide?

*
Anglo Deal *for 49% MINAS RIO RESOURCES *JORC 3.79 Billion Tonnes @ 33% Fe = 1.264 Billion Tonnes of Mag = $2 per tonne Mag*

*The ERNC / BML Deal* 100% *JORC 1.96 Billion Tonnes @ 32% Fe = 630 Million Tonnes Mag = $1 per tonne Mag*


Maybe $1/t is the new deal EV for Mag worldwide?


----------



## springhill (10 July 2008)

ocelot said:


> Whilst I am keeping investment in SDL the current price makes me want to find some more $$$ and buy some more. Wonder when she is going to turn around?




I agree ocelot, seems good value ATM, at a critical support level here, if t breaks this line of support i think next level is at 17 cents from memory, coincidently what i bought in at... luky enough to be freeholding them. Think we will have to wait for further resource upgrades for this one to move again, management are doing well in this respect and have 5-6 drill units on site... only a matter of time. Does suffer from large number of shares on offer tho


----------



## LRG (10 July 2008)

Yes, i'm in for the long haul here too.  Can't wait for 5 years but will.

Just picked up a few more today at 24.5c.  I first purchases early in the year at 44.5c only to see them make that low of 18 cents or whatever it was a few months back.

Have some NSL which I hope to offload next week so I can pick up more SDL for the long term.  I like the 19.9% Talbot connection very much. 

IMO this one has the cred - but I have been way wrong before too!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *JORC 190Mt's@60%Fe = 114Mt's DSO Haematite*
> 
> Value I'd say $5/t = $570m = 28.5c SDL, (trading pretty close to fair value)
> 
> Note even though some would argue a heavy discounting of $5/t EV given SDL is in Africa and the Cap Ex is huge (ie $3.5Billion+) I have chosen $5/t as SDL has a very very large Magnetite target "Exploration Target of 2.0-2.5 billion tonnes of Itabirite mineralisation" = *2Bt's-2.5Bt's@35%-45%Fe*






YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Was just reading SDL's ann today,
> 
> Those are some impressive estimates,
> 
> ...





As I have said in the past, I always enjoy looking at SDL to try and work out what exactly is it value and upside 

*So far they have 190Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $950m = 47.5c*

Then they also have targets of Magnetite type mineralisations refered to as Itaberite and no matter what you call and how you look at it, the grade of sub 55% means that benefication is required, so I treat it like a Magnetite Ore

Anyway they have targets of *1 Billion tonnes to 2.5 Billion tonnes @ 39% Fe * given that they are non JORC I think for now a lower end valuation of 25c /t is appropriate however this should move up to 50c a tonne once JORC'd and even $1/t as a takeover target

*1Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 390Mt's @ 25c/t = $97.5m = 5c
2.5 Billion t's @ 39%Fe = 975Mt's @ 25c/t = $245m = 12c*

So really SDL does kinda look cheap based on these calcs, but then what would I know 

I don't hold, just been doing alot of calcs lately for fun on NSL and also looked at CFE and SDL for comparisons

Cheers


----------



## adluroil (12 July 2008)

YT are you hinting that  you have just realized in your calculations that if  NSL is revalued at 20cents then SDL is a bargain at todays price .


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (12 July 2008)

Not hinting at anything other than its interesting to watch the Fe sector develop as the Chinese continue to pay up for the material,

Also was reading the BBY report and thought I'd run my own numbers to see where I came up

In case you aren't sure I don't hold SDL, are you hinting to me that I should? :


----------



## adluroil (13 July 2008)

An interesting article 
Seems that the Cameroon Government will be helping with port facilities and possibly the railway also  with the help of some land locked adjacent countries.



KRIBI DEEP-SEA PORT PROJECT PUBLIC INVITATION N ° 0006 MINEPAT/2008 TO SUBMIT AN EXPRESSION      
Written by Administrator     
Wednesday, 02 July 2008  
KRIBI DEEP-SEA PORT PROJECT

PUBLIC INVITATION N °  0006   MINEPAT/2008 TO SUBMIT AN EXPRESSION OF INTEREST FOR FUNDING, BUILDING AND OPERATING THE KRIBI DEEP-SEA PORT  


BACKGROUND 

1.1.            Project
The Government of Cameroon seeks partners to fund, build and operate a deep-sea port in Kribi, a locality situated at the sea front of Cameroon in Central Africa in the Gulf of Guinea.
The project will allow for the construction of deep-sea port facilities that would receive large vessels in view of handling various traffic, including: 
-          Traffic associated with mining of deposits (iron ore, bauxite, nickel, cobalt and rutile, etc. ) and related industrial activities ;
-           Hydrocarbon traffic;
-          Container traffic that is fast increasing in the sub-region (Cameroon and its landlocked neighbouring countries, namely Chad, CAR, North Congo, North DRC);
-          Traffic associated with transhipment and redistribution of containers along the West African Coastal area.

Technical, economic, financial and environmental studies conducted reveal that the project bears a real economic interest for Cameroon and countries of the sub-region on the one hand and a financial interest for investors, businesses and port operators on the other hand. As a matter of fact, it is an over-arching and income generating project that will promote sub-regional integration as well as development of industries, urban, transport and energy infrastructure and sustainable improvement of the living conditions of the people. 
1.2.            Execution arrangements
The project shall be implemented under partnership contracts. In fact, Cameroon and contractors shall sign agreements for funding and/or building and/or operating part or all port facilities. These agreements shall be reached following a tender selection and contract awarding procedure as spelled out in law No2006/012 of 29 December 2006 on rules and regulations governing partnership contracts in Cameroon as well as its implementing instruments.
These agreements would concern the following lots: 
Group 1: Construction of basic facilities: funding and construction of the seawall, access channel, dock, wharves, pack and main utility service (sanitation, roads, railways, water, electricity, communication services)
Lot 1.1: Seawall
Lot 1.2: Dredging activities and packs (access channel, dock, and embankment)
Lot 1.3: Wharves
Lot 1.4: Main utility service
Group 2 : Construction of terminals: 
-          Funding
-          Construction of infrastructure and superstructure
-          Terminal equipment
-          operating terminals

full article at this link

http://www.minpat.gov.cm/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=226&Itemid=97


----------



## hangseng (13 July 2008)

Good find and read adluroil. I have seen this recently but good to see it posted up again, this is very relevant to SDL.

One of the least understood aspects of the SDL Mbalam Project. 

SDL do not have to pay for the complete rail line, nor will they be paying for the Deep Water Port facility. This is a project in itself and is being fast tracked by the Cameroon Govt. The Cameroon Govt will own and operate the infrastructure. That is not to say investors and SDL won't be contributing, I am sure they will be.

SDL will be paying for the section of line and loading facilities at both ends relating specifically to Mbalam and any extensions to the mine. And there will be extensions, very large extensions.

SDL also has none of the problems faced by FMG, such as ongoing court battles to gain access to BHP/Rio rail or port access.

A little hint for avid researchers out there. Follow closely the planned construction route of the line at and around the Mbalam region and who the investors are that come into this infrastructure project. Your findings as this develops will begin to add clarity to coming events with SDL.

People are struggling to understand what is going on in Cameroon. This is a strongly supported project by both the Cameroon Govt and investors will be lining up to participate. It is quite simply one of the best world class Fe projects that *will be developed*. Jones didn't want the merger to go ahead for no reason. He knows the value of SDL and you can be sure he will continue to attract significant investment for the project.

Those would have you believe otherwise are very misinformed.


----------



## hangseng (13 July 2008)

I just found this piece of excellent work I thought may be of interest here.

Well done to bungi2.
_source: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=710193&msgno=3106982#3106982_


----------



## LRG (17 July 2008)

SDL has hung in there reasonably well considering the All Ords dipped below 5000 this week.

International markets bounced last night and are looking to another GREEN night tonight.  If this continues friday night I think SDL will form a good base again ready to head north for a while.

Is anyone suspicious of the broker report mentioned in this thread a few day ago with the prediction in a few years of $4+.  This same report was what got me in when there was an 87c peak as buy.  I boght at 44.5c only to see SDL head down to 18 cents.

What is the connnection between SDL and that Brooker - buy reco?

I am in because of the Talbot connection, the cash in the bank, the $'s in confirming the resorce etc etc. But, the ranges of the stock since xmas has been unbelievable.

I hope in 5 years it is a MCC or FMG with exponential SP growth to $5 or more!!


----------



## cordelia (17 July 2008)

LRG said:


> Is anyone suspicious of the broker report mentioned in this thread a few day ago with the prediction in a few years of $4+.




Don't listen to brokers. They know jack sh*t....The only times I have bought on broker recommendation I have lost money. In fact listening to anyone's recommendation and acting upon it without doing your own research is a recipe for failure...

I hold SDL....I bought at .34 and got stopped out at .32 but bought back in last week....so I am confident


----------



## ofishl1 (19 July 2008)

Up, Down, just waiting for the bottom of this curve, around 0.205, and then in again , originally bought in at 0.095  , so as said previously, no brainer


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> As I have said in the past, I always enjoy looking at SDL to try and work out what exactly is it value and upside
> 
> *So far they have 190Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $570m = 28.5*
> 
> ...




JORC upgrade for SDL, also just realise I had an error in previous calculation

*200Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $600m = 30c*

Now the new JORC for the lower grade, mag style component is

*1,190Mts'@38% Fe JORC which is worth 25c/t = $115m = 5.7c*

So based on these EV's fair value would be 35c, HOWEVER in the end the mkt will determine fair value


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> As I have said in the past, I always enjoy looking at SDL to try and work out what exactly is it value and upside
> 
> *So far they have 190Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $950m = 47.5c*
> 
> ...




wow, I think I must have damaged my brain partying, I just realised I was only using 25c/t Mag value, but thats the figure you use for targets not JORC, for JORC its 50c/t Mag with an upside to $1 for a takeover, so here's how it should look


JORC upgrade for SDL, also just realise I had an error in previous calculation

*200Mts'@60% Fe JORC which is worth $5/t = $600m = 30c*

Now the new JORC for the lower grade, mag style component is

*1,190Mts'@38% Fe JORC which is worth 50c/t = $230m = 11c*


So target price based on the above EV's = 40c - 45c (with cash and stuff)

Sorry for the mistake in the previous calcs guys,


----------



## ocelot (21 July 2008)

Not a bad jump today up 23% on some good news. Sure was a lot of trades on this one today 88million plus


----------



## hoppielimp (21 July 2008)

Hi Ocelot...are you looking at the correct share price ?  Its up 43%...not 23...
All good...

Some good results...I guess the big move will really come if something on infrastructure/ports are timetabled.


----------



## adluroil (21 July 2008)

IMHO  30 MTPA export after operating costs = minimum earnings 1Billion USD
SDL is not a bank where ones capital is safe and average returns are about 7% ( today but not allways the case). So with SDL we would want double that return say 14% .
So a potential buyer /takeover of SDL would get all their capital back in seven years 
There for 7Billion USD divided by 2 billion shares = $ 3.50 . This would then leave the buyer 13 years of profits from the remaining life of the mine at todays resource estimates .
So if a buyer is happy with 7 years value of SDL  = $3.50 a share
                              with 8 years value of SDL  = $4.00 a share
                              with 9 years value of SDL  = $4.50 a share
                              with 10 years value of SDL = $5.00 a share

I hold SDL


----------



## springhill (21 July 2008)

1465 - 1520 2:27:29 pm 27 2,325,002 5 $627,751 56 
1464 2:15:45 pm 22 37,778 5 $8,311 1 
1461 - 1463 2:15:11 pm 27 234,660 0.5 $63,358 3 
1446 - 1460 2:14:06 pm 27.5 418,055 5.5 $114,965 15 
1445 2:12:01 pm 22 302,224 5 $66,489 1 
1412 - 1444 2:11:35 pm 27 1,555,500 5 $419,985 33 
1410 - 1411 2:08:32 pm 22 75,473 5 $16,604 2 
1404 - 1409 2:07:04 pm 27 45,600 0.5 $12,312 6 
1402 - 1403 2:06:42 pm 26.5 5,848 0.5 $1,550 2 
1395 - 1401 2:05:20 pm 27 187,000 0.5 $50,490 7 
1382 - 1394 2:03:41 pm 26.5 374,251 4.5 $99,177 13 
1381 1:59:49 pm 22 264,446 4.5 $58,178 1 
1335 - 1380 1:57:55 pm 26.5 5,626,387 0.5 $1,490,993 46 

Was wondering wat is goin on with trades numbers 1464, 1445, 1410-1411 and number 1381? Why would these shares be dumped at 22 cents, 4 to 5 cents below the market value?


----------



## Miner (21 July 2008)

hoppielimp said:


> Hi Ocelot...are you looking at the correct share price ?  Its up 43%...not 23...
> All good...
> 
> Some good results...I guess the big move will really come if something on infrastructure/ports are timetabled.




Has any one really looked into Silica level of ore analysis and considered the operational cost in screening the Silica out to be even with similar FE content ore ? The maintenacne of such high silica plant will be a pain financially and down time wise. But that will be in 2013 so now enjoy the results and gain in SDL !


----------



## adluroil (22 July 2008)

hoppielimp said:


> Hi Ocelot...are you looking at the correct share price ?  Its up 43%...not 23...
> All good...
> 
> Some good results...I guess the big move will really come if something on infrastructure/ports are timetabled.




Hint that the infrastructure costs may be shared in todays ann. with the China National Machinery  Corporation. 

"Central West Africa is considered to have the potential to develop into a significant new iron province, underpinned by the Mbalam Iron Ore Project and the nearby Belinga Project in Gabon, under development by 
the China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation. "


----------



## mrgroundwork (22 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> wow, I think I must have damaged my brain partying, I just realised I was only using 25c/t Mag value, but thats the figure you use for targets not JORC, for JORC its 50c/t Mag with an upside to $1 for a takeover, so here's how it should look
> 
> 
> JORC upgrade for SDL, also just realise I had an error in previous calculation
> ...




pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...

please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....

did you also discount them for risk?


----------



## mongoose (22 July 2008)

springhill said:


> 1465 - 1520 2:27:29 pm 27 2,325,002 5 $627,751 56
> 1464 2:15:45 pm 22 37,778 5 $8,311 1
> 1461 - 1463 2:15:11 pm 27 234,660 0.5 $63,358 3
> 1446 - 1460 2:14:06 pm 27.5 418,055 5.5 $114,965 15
> ...




Overseas cross trades left over from last Friday's trading. as you point out quite a few went through.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (22 July 2008)

mrgroundwork said:


> pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...
> 
> please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....
> 
> did you also discount them for risk?




Just some rough calc's I put together for interests sake,

Mate I'm no analyst or financial advisor, if you want a full blown DCF then contact your broker and see if their analysts cover it,


Personally I think DCF's are wortheless with these kinds of stocks, maybe closer to production but not now, too many variables atm


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## JTLP (22 July 2008)

mrgroundwork said:


> pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...
> 
> please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....
> 
> did you also discount them for risk?




LOL!!!

The guy pretty much dedicates his time and research/efforts to give a good quick overview of many stocks (many that have been very profitable for other members) and you come in here and expect him to put on a research hat for 1500 man hours.

Cut the kid a break...YT's where the federal green's at YO!


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## LRG (24 July 2008)

Agree, I like many others enjoy reading and trying to understand all the detailed calcs that YT does on many penny dreadful stocks - most of which aren't so dreadful if you get in and out at the right times.

finding the right exit point is often my issue!

keep up the good work YT - it is appreciated by many on ASF.


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## Miner (24 July 2008)

mrgroundwork said:


> pretty basic valuation.. i guess the key is your valuation per tonne...
> 
> please explain how you came to these figures for value per tonne... there are a huge amount of revenue/cost assumptions required to come to a figure like that... please detail them....
> 
> did you also discount them for risk?




*mrgroundwork*

Great questions but it would be best that  you please come out with some high level and advanced work than criticising YT for his analysis. This guy YT  has a passion to share his thoughts and analysis with all of us. He could have chosen to keep with himself. So Groundwork please give a break and participate in the forum with some solid contribution before discouraging active participants

I do agree what YT said to respond you and please do consider lot of information are published in this forum are highly educative and even those tie and suit analysts fail to produce even you pay them

It will surely  be welcomed by all when you produce and share some good stuff .


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## hangseng (25 July 2008)

Just a note people on an aspect that seems to be misunderstood by some.

Itabirite BIF Fe *is not a magnetite ore*, it is essentially a lower grade hematite ore sourced from immediately below the subsurface hemetite ore, that once processed through standard benefication becomes a very high grade hemetite ore. A much sought after valuable product in fact.

There is much information available on this.

_DISTRIBUTION OF IRON ORES IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
The highest grade iron-ore deposits in the world occur in association with, and are derived from, a particular group of sedimentary rocks. In different countries these rocks are known variously as banded iron formation,
jaspilite, hematite quartzite, taconite, or itabirite[/B]; all are essentially the same rock type.[/B][/COLOR]_
source: http://www.doir.wa.gov.au/documents/GSWA_IronOreInWAPamphlet.pdf

Itabirite BIF Fe is actually the main source of Fe in the world with CVRD being not only the largest Fe producer in the world but also of Itabirite BIF Fe. In Australia we are blinded into believing that only the Pilbara hemetite is worth anything. Some actually (wrongly) believing the Pilbara is the largest source of Fe in the world.

So best not to confuse Magnetite with Itabirite, they are essentially two completely different Fe products.

SDL is rapidly becoming a very large project. If the expansion plans are successful it will most definately become a world class Fe province, so far all indications are this will be the case. Mbalam alone is already indicated as being 8% of the entire Cameroon GDP. Add in the rest of the project and you can see why this project will have so much significance to Cameroon and will have no difficulty attracting investment funding and offtake agreements.


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## spottygoose (26 July 2008)

hangseng said:


> Just a note people on an aspect that seems to be misunderstood by some.
> 
> Itabirite BIF Fe *is not a magnetite ore*, it is essentially a lower grade hematite ore sourced from immediately below the subsurface hemetite ore, that once processed through standard benefication becomes a very high grade hemetite ore. A much sought after valuable product in fact.
> 
> ...




 Thank you I was hoping someone would post this info on the forum.  After reading similar comments elsewhere I was lead to do a bit of research on Itabirite and you are correct. I was going to post something similar until it started to make my geologically challenged grey matter start to ache.


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## LRG (29 July 2008)

thanx hang seng and spotty goose.

IMO this is a pearla of a stock for the long term.

i am gradually building my holding and hope to cash in in 2013/14, pay my max 25% CGT and then buy a holiday house at the beach with what is left (based on the BBY recommendation forecast SP in the future - which I am holding out as GOSPEL).  If they are wrong can we sue?

I hope to be able to keep buying in the 20 - 30 cents over the next few months if possible to increase my holdings as cash comes available.  My plan to sell NSL at a huge gain has come unstuck - so funds nedd to come from hard work in myday job again to buy moe SDL - darn it!


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## lioness (29 July 2008)

LRG said:


> thanx hang seng and spotty goose.
> 
> IMO this is a pearla of a stock for the long term.
> 
> ...




All I can do is laugh at this post. Throw a bucket of water on yourself and scream 'AHHHH, I am melting, I am melting' HAAHAHAHAH


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## springhill (30 July 2008)

lioness said:


> All I can do is laugh at this post. Throw a bucket of water on yourself and scream 'AHHHH, I am melting, I am melting' HAAHAHAHAH




Hi lioness, sounds like you are a huge doubter of SDL. Could you provide some rhyme or reason for this post?


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## jman2007 (30 July 2008)

lioness said:


> All I can do is laugh at this post. Throw a bucket of water on yourself and scream 'AHHHH, I am melting, I am melting' HAAHAHAHAH




Huh?..

I don't get it either, care to enlighten us with your viewpoint here lioness? At least LRG told us where he stood.

jman


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## adluroil (30 July 2008)

Interesting article
Just couple of paragraphs but link provided for whole article
They are saying that there is approx 567 million Tons of DSO ( the Cameroon Gov that is)
This means that if its true SDL could be shipping DSO for 19 years @ 30 million Tons Year before they even start on the ITABRITE 
There is more than we are being told at the moment about this project .
If this comes out as an announcement we are going to have one hell of a ride




UPDATE 3-INTERVIEW-Cameroon targets $10 bln mines investment
(Adds details of new port in pars 16 and 17)

By Tansa Musa

YAOUNDE, July 25 (Reuters) - Cameroon is luring a flood of new mining investors who it hopes will invest over $10 billion and create over 27,000 jobs in the central African nation over the next few years, a top mines ministry official said.

Rich in minerals -- including bauxite, iron ore, cobalt, nickle and uranium -- but long troubled by poor infrastructure, red tape and costly corruption, Cameroon is now attracting the attention of some major new companies.

They are spurred on by soaring global commodity prices and friendly mining legislation offering tax holidays in country. The government says the 63 mining exploration permits it has handed out over two years are proof of the levels of interest.

"With all these, the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Technological Development estimates foreign direct investments in the sector in the next few years to stand at some 4,377 billion CFA francs ($10.46 billion)," said Oscar Matip, the ministry's director of mines and geology.

Although Cameroon has no history of iron ore mining, Australia's Sundance Resources Ltd (SDL.AX 

Company overview
Real-time quote
SDL.AX , 0.260, +0.010, +4%) has an exploration permit for the Mbalam deposits which the ministry believes may contain 567 million tonnes of ore with a 60 percent iron content.

Meanhwile, Nu Energy Corporation Cameroon, a 92 percent subsidiary of Canada's Mega Uranium Ltd, is exploring for uranium at two sites in the north and south of the country.

Major constraints in electricity supply, transport within the country and shipping products abroad are being tackled by major new port, hydro and railway projects totalling hundreds of millions of dollars, Matip said.

The government announced the latest of these -- a planned deep sea port in the south-western town of Limbe by South Korea's Korean Port Engineering Company -- on Friday.

A three-month feasibility study has begun and, if it goes ahead, the 200 billion CFA franc development will serve not only Cameroon but also its landlocked neighbours, it said. (Writing by David Lewis; Editing by Alistair Thomson and Anthony Barker) 



http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=603995


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## Miner (16 August 2008)

http://www.egoli.com.au/epiServer/Templates/Public/Pages/StoryArticle.aspx?id=33615

Please read the  report as per above link by Shaw brokers and following is the extract

SDL has 90% of JORC compliant inferred iron ore resources containing 1.2bt of Itabirite (38%Fe) in addition to 200mt of Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) in Cameroon (60%Fe). 

*Management is currently planning for production at a rate of 35mtpa of DSO from 2012 with a forecast FOB cost of less than US$25/t (Feb08).*
With it’s project potentially at the lower end of the cash cost curve, SDL could be in a strong position to capitalise on these solid fundamentals.


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## Lucky_Country (19 August 2008)

One of my favourite shares in SDL just nervousness in the market putting any gains on hold for awhile.
Once market confidence returns I expect SDL to profit from an upward swing coupled with good news.


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## Jewels (27 August 2008)

George Jones (non executive director) was involved with a little company called Portman mining in the mid 1990's, it was trading around 69 cents when I first became aware of it.  I believe he was instrumental in the development of the Burton coal project and their Koolyanobbing iron ore deposits.
Whilst the challenges that lay ahead for Sundance Resources are many and varied, it is an important project for the Cameroon government, not only for future revenue streams but also for the development of rail and port infrastucture, this could open up the possibility of financing new projects through government backed financial instruments which may reduce the cost of funding, there are however going to be many challenges between now and their first shipment of DSO quality ore, these "challenges" will no doubt provide many opportunities for traders along the journey.  I don't think that George would become involved with this project unless he believed he could get the project through to it's first shipment.  
Ken Talbots certainly put his money where his mouth is with the Talbot Group being Sundances largest shareholder.  Once again Talbot has a sensational track record as a "doer" in the resources industry that speaks for itself.
Whilst the large number of shares on issue (over 1.8billion in the 2007 anual report) gives the company a huge market cap for what it has at the moment, and also makes comparisons with FMG ill advised (although the "story" appears to run along similar lines).
I'm not into charts, they're way too hard for me, I like to follow people who've done it all before, and look at what they have to work with.  I believe there will be some furthther drilling results due in the September quater, and maybe they may help the share price along a little.
So I'll quietly accumulate a few more, and try to "buy straw hats in winter, and umberellas in summer".


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## mayk (27 August 2008)

Potential breakout alert. 
http://finance.google.com/finance?c...det=1219817537406&chddm=4796&q=ASX:SDL&ntsp=0

It seems like some good news is coming. The volume for tomorrow and the day after will confirm this. As today was an average volume day.


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## golfmos123 (27 August 2008)

SDL usually leaks like a sieve when it comes to news.  Many times we've seen a SP rise prior to an announcement.  Would be absolutely no surprise to see something released in the next day or two.  Not a massive volume either with the SP rise today.  Would be looking for further increases in volume very soon to back it up hopefully.

Should have loaded up at 20.5 just a few days ago, would have been a nice 20% in a week.


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## joeyjoejoe (27 August 2008)

looks like it might be a good time to get on board.. i have also been looking at this one last few weeks. im think around 10,000 shares @ .30 cents


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## DowJones (29 August 2008)

Sundance is a volatile stock - Up 20%, then down 11%, then up 6%...  its either feast for famine.

Lets hope it has found some support at these levels.


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## mayk (30 August 2008)

The sad aspect is the lack of volume this time around. Previously before running it goes above 30-40 million volume barrier. 

But historically it runs really hard and I always miss the train . Anyway I think it is the problem with stocks with African origin, with rampant corruption, it make sense that good news can reach special people before announced on ASX. 

Some news regardning rail network and resource upgrade will boost this stock but are not due till the Sept-Oct.


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## golfmos123 (31 August 2008)

Agree with previous post on lack of volume, whenever SDL runs, it is on the back of huge volume.  Some sort of ann in the near future wouldn't be a great surprise with what happened last week.


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## Jewels (1 September 2008)

Volume 40,000,000 +.and share price is up 4.5 cents so far........Something is happening, and it can't all be due to this forum!


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## mayk (1 September 2008)

We have a confirmed breakout  How high it will go depends on the news. But historically SDL has been dumped after release of news . And it always comes back to around .20. I got in at .245 and will be waiting to get out at .45. It is amazing that its step brother GBG is also showing signs of a strong run. Even after the merger collopase they seem to be in sync in trends. 

Good luck to all SDL holders.


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## golfmos123 (1 September 2008)

mayk said:


> We have a confirmed breakout  How high it will go depends on the news. But historically SDL has been dumped after release of news . And it always comes back to around .20. I got in at .245 and will be waiting to get out at .45. It is amazing that its step brother GBG is also showing signs of a strong run. Even after the merger collopase they seem to be in sync in trends.
> 
> Good luck to all SDL holders.




Yes, we've seen our volume spike today as sort of expected.  Now we just need to see the reason why!!!

But you're right mayk - am also anticipating a spike and a retreat.  I would think that it might not run to your 45c though - I'm probably looking at low 30s tomorrow and will run off some stock then.  Aim to pick it back up again around low-mid 20s in a week or two's time and pocket the difference.


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## RP_Automotive (2 September 2008)

Looks like a few got cold feet today, took their money and ran. They will be regretful in 4-5 years time when this thread is re-named "The millionaires thread" hehehehe.


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## Miner (2 September 2008)

RP_Automotive said:


> Looks like a few got cold feet today, took their money and ran. They will be regretful in 4-5 years time when this thread is re-named "The millionaires thread" hehehehe.




I respect your dream and may GOd showers flowers and free scratchies on your head.

I dream of the same when I buy Lotto 

BTW I do have holding on SDL and cherishing the same dream


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## Jewels (2 September 2008)

Just thought Sundance resources shareholders may find the following of interest.  Sorry if it's a bit all over the place, but it had to be translated from French.  The original article can be found at http://translate.google.com.au/tran...prev=/search?q=cameroon+government&hl=en&sa=G


 RÃ©publique du Cameroun Republic of Cameroon 
Services du Premier Ministre The Prime Minister 


Accueil Home  Le Premier Ministre The Prime Minister  Le Gouvernement The Government  Le Cameroun The Cameroon  The Prime Minister received a delegation of Belgian investors   The Prime Minister, Head of Government EphraÃ¯m Inoni granted a hearing to a delegation of Belgian investors interested in the proposed construction of deepwater port of Kribi, it was Friday, August 8, 2008 at the Star Building. 

Officials of Jan De Nul Group were accompanied at the Prime Minister by the Director General of the autonomous port of Douala, Jean-Marcel Dayas Mounoune also Director General of the National Ports Authority. 

The regional president of this organization, Ir Kobbe told the press that they came to the Cameroonian authorities say that Jan De Nul is ready to finance the construction of the port of Kribi. In response, the government has reaffirmed its willingness to move quickly in this project.  For his part, Head of Government has shown interest in the offer made by Jan De Nul Group said Jean-Marcel Dayas Mounoume. 

 The Belgian group formed in 1938, is a leading civil engineering and marine construction.  It is one of the best globally, with regard to the dredging and filling specialized maritime services, maintenance work in ports, roads and ports. 

It would appear that things are happening in Cameroon, could this be why we are seeing the increased turnover over the past couple of days?
Would like to know your opinion.


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## Goldmann (3 September 2008)

RP_Automotive said:


> Looks like a few got cold feet today, took their money and ran. They will be regretful in 4-5 years time when this thread is re-named "The millionaires thread" hehehehe.




so if your not expecting BIG things for the next 4 or so years, why park your stock in SDL for that period?  Better off taking the 3.8% on offer for US treasury bonds haha.

with the sheer amount of SDL stock on the market, it is always goign to be a prime target for the big boys to manipulate... buy low, ramp up one day (or for longer), sell and take the profit, then short it to oblivion for the next month before buying in and doing it all again... 

it appears there is good (Easy) money to be made following this pattern, pick conservative entry and exit points and hold your nerve when (and if) you get stuck somewhere in between. by no means a recommendation on how to invest your hard earned, but a clear pattern seems to be evolving for anyone who has been following this one for a while.


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## Jewels (3 September 2008)

As predicted the announcement has arrived.  Sundance has announced an upgrade to to the inferred minneral resource of DSO quality hematite to 222.6 million tonnes at an average grade of 61.6%.  The company's exploration target for DSO quality hematite @ Mbalam is 300 million tonnes, with 3 priority targets identified to deliver the additional tonnages required to meet this objective.  If you wish to find out more you can go to either the ASX or Sundance websites.

Question:     Can any body tell me if it is possible to find out which brokers are buying/selling a particular stock on a particular day?  Is there a way of finding out if a particular broker is pushing a particular stock?
Thanks.  J.


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## Piggy Bank (3 September 2008)

I have been following Sundance for a long time now.  The resource upgrade announcement today was predictable.  The hype and any major positive market response to an iron ore resource upgrade that was present over 12 months ago has definitely waned.  Yes, we know that they already have a very large resource and this will certainly increase with further drilling.  However, given the current state of the financial markets and the global economy investors are now much more wary.  Sundance needs to announce offtake partners, financial backing and plans to commence port, rail and mine infrastructure for this company to really take off.  Until then the stock will remain volatile.

Getting the iron ore out of the ground and onto a ship will distinguish this company from the rest!  Good luck to all long term SDL holders!


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## RP_Automotive (3 September 2008)

I agree todays announcement was kinda like the weather man saying "yeah it rained today" when he predicted it 4 days earlier...no surprises there really.

I think you summed it all up very nicely there piggy bank.....once all of those fractors mentioned are on the table then we will know whats going on.


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## mayk (4 September 2008)

Still , can someone summarize the new results (looks at Youngtrader ). Last time an interview of its CEO got every one excited about the results, hopefully this time it will be the same. 

I agree with other posters for the lack of financial and infrastructre news. But they have to first locate their Iron ore potential (the bigger, the better). Any initial report for financial backing will look good if more proven  resources of good quality are shown. I guess this is the motivation behind the lack of financial news. 

Similarly, the governemt has to be willing and should support the infrastructure, which unfortunately because of its location is not an easy task to do. I guess these factors of increased risk because of geographic concern always overshadows this stock.


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## Pythagerous (4 September 2008)

G'day All. Relatively new to the Forum and SDL, so just trying to understand some basic fundementals of the stock. Placed below is some basic information sourced from the Sundance Website, Comsec and various announcements. It is probably just stating the obvious, but hopefully it will help with the understanding of SLD and the Mbalam Project.

*Shares in Company:* 1,873,400,000
*Market Capitalisation:* $487M (Based on SP of 26c)

*Major Shares Holders:* 
Tablot Holding Group 19% (Aprox)
Lehman Brothers Prime Broker 6.26% (Aprox)
Concord Capital 5.10% (Aprox)

Top 20 Shareholders own 53% of SDL

*Expected Development Costs: * 
$375m (Mining and Process)
$1,423m (Railway)
$529m (Port)
$442 (Indirects)
$508 (Contingency)
*$3,277m (Total)*

They are projecting 35mtpa x 20 Years (Minimum)

This is made up of: 222.6mt of DSO Hematite 61.6%FE (Target 300mt)
                          1,200mt of Itabirate 38%FE (Target 1,800mt)

High Grade DSO estimated between US$2-10/Per Tonne In Ground
Itibirate estimated between $1-3/Per Tonne In Ground

*Est. DSO Opex Margin: *
Average FOB Price (30% Lump + 70% Fines) US$57.34/t
Estimated Production Cost:                        US$19.65/t
Estimated Operating Margin:                       US$37.69/t


*Timeline:* 
2008 JORC Resource Definition DSO and Itabirite
2008 Project Convention & Fiscal Terms
2008 Identify Strategic Offtakers
2009 Complete definitive Technical Studies
2009 Social Environmental Impact Assessment
2009 Project Financing
2009 - 2012 Construction
2012 Commence Ramp Up of Operations

Like most specs, there are a couple of things to get excited about, and a couple of things to be weary of. I will start with the negatives:

*Negatives:*
- The Stability of Cameroon and its Government, violence, corruption etc
- SDL need to find someone to finance $3,277m in order to get it up.
- Railway system and Ports need to be established

*Positivies:*
- It appears that they are sitting on quite a lot
- Talbot holding 19.9% provides some confidence
- Support of Cameroon Government

Would be interested to see the thoughts of people on the negatives.

Is there a possibility that the Cameroon Government or another company will assist with the financing and construction of the Railway System and Port?

How difficult is it going to be for SDL to find a significant funder?

What is the outlook on the stability of Cameroon?

I hold a small amount of SDL 30.5c and looking at increasing my stake.


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## The Muffin Man (4 September 2008)

Hi, first post in these forums.

My response to those negatives will be that the cost to get the project off the ground will not be $3.2Bn. There are numerous ways in which those costs will be brought down, including sharing infrastructure costs with other miners within the region. Also, if you go back through this thread, you will see that there are a number of groups looking at funding the construction and operation of port facilities within the region. To my knowledge, that $3.2Bn is a costing for the project if SDL were to pay for everything, that won't happen.

Secondly, the Cameroon Government is rubbing it's hands together with glee at the prospect of such a project for their country. It will provide jobs and royalties. Jobs means happy people. The Government will do all they can to get this moving, they won't be hindering any development.


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## golfmos123 (4 September 2008)

I agree with you Muffin Man,

All this talk about raising so much money is important but not as important as is made out.  Much money will come from Govt and will be paid back many times over as royalties and the like.  Other companies are looking at developing infrastructure, particularly the deep water port and there might yet be some sharing on rail costs as well.  All looks good to me, but patience is required.


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## jwrt (5 September 2008)

Negatives:
- The Stability of Cameroon and its Government, violence, corruption etc

It's pretty stable. No "violence" that i've heard of either.


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## Piggy Bank (5 September 2008)

jwrt said:


> Negatives:
> - The Stability of Cameroon and its Government, violence, corruption etc
> 
> It's pretty stable. No "violence" that i've heard of either.




That is a very bold statement jwrt.

To give the alternative view....
I would stress that as far as African nations are concerned Cameroon is relatively stable and is one of the safer African countries to do business with.  They have a "democratically" elected President with broad ranging powers and a legal system based on French Civil Law.  However, we do not need to dig too deeply to find recent problems with government, violence and alleged corruption.  We must remember that Cameroon is a "developing" nation with vast mineral resources but many social problems.

Do not be too quick to forget the turmoil recently in Feb/Mar 2008.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/world/africa/02cameroon.html

A simple internet search will reveal more.


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## Pythagerous (5 September 2008)

The fact that the Mbalam Project is based in Cameroon, probably concerns a lot of investors, as they are a bit wary of the stability of the Country and the Government. So at the moment it is probably something that limits the share price currently, as Cameroon is not a country that people know a lot about, so share investors are probably a bit hesitant to jump right in, without some assurance or evidence of stability. This just adds to the risk, and higher the risk higher the potential reward.

Just got some further questions that hopefully some people may be able to answer.

*At the moment SDL have a around 1.8b Shares with a current market cap of around $500M. If SDL find a major investor, how does this affect the number of shares and market cap. If they find an investor who puts forward another $500M, does this effectively mean that they own half of SDL, meaning that the weight of my shares is halved?*

Considering the number of SDL shares in circulation, and the amount of resources they have identified. Potentially, how high could SDL shares get if everything goes to plan?

*Has SDL pretty much allready identified all of their available resources, or potentially is there still a chance that with further drilling they may uncover more then what they first assumed they had?*

Where do people see the price of Iron Ore heading by 2012. Will it be in even higher demand?


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## Speedemon (5 September 2008)

Pythagerous said:


> If they find an investor who puts forward another $500M, does this effectively mean that they own half of SDL, meaning that the weight of my shares is halved?




Your share price won't be halved, has the share price itself is dependent on the buyers and sellers.

If you want to sell your share price for half the amount though, I'd be willing to buy them off you!


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## The Muffin Man (5 September 2008)

Pythagerous said:


> The fact that the Mbalam Project is based in Cameroon, probably concerns a lot of investors, as they are a bit wary of the stability of the Country and the Government. So at the moment it is probably something that limits the share price currently, as Cameroon is not a country that people know a lot about, so share investors are probably a bit hesitant to jump right in, without some assurance or evidence of stability. This just adds to the risk, and higher the risk higher the potential reward.
> 
> Just got some further questions that hopefully some people may be able to answer.
> 
> ...




If there is another raising of capital, where more shares are issued, yes the 'weight' of your shares will be less. You will effectively own less of the company. There are a lot of other ways in which possible deals with other parties could be structured though, that don't involve capital raising through the issue of shares. If more shares are issued, it won't necessarily mean a fall in share prices, but SDL is already a sweetheart of day traders I think, and another issue I'm guessing would add to this problem.

SDL hasn't fully identified all of their resources that lay inside their permit area. (They just obtained another licence directly opposite the one they are drilling also) The current identified numbers are listed above, but they are shooting for around 300m tonnes of DSO iron ore, and who knows how much of the lower quality ore is under the surface. I think the exploration target for that is 2 billion tonnes, but have a look on the website at the presentations given because I'm sure numbers are mentioned in there.

Who knows where iron ore prices will be in 2012, way too many factors involved in trying to predict that. Brazil might fall over economically and the country descend into chaos (hampering production and therefore boosting the price), or the Chinese boom might begin to stall. (Lowering the price)

The key is to control costs as best as possible, so that if there were falls in iron ore prices, the company in question is still able to be sufficiently profitable to keep it's shareholders happy. SDL is apparently lucky in this area as it's projected production costs are quite low.

The hard part is getting to the production stage.


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## Agent 86 (9 September 2008)

I saw some earlier blogs that the World Bank or IMF might be able to assist Sundance/Cameroon govt to partially finance this project.

Does anyone have an angle on this?


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## Pythagerous (11 September 2008)

Can't answer your question sorry Agent86.

Can anyone confirm that the Lehman Brothers in the below story are the same Lehman Brothers that own a major stake in SDL?

*Lehman Brothers racks $US3.9b Q3 loss*

_US investment bank Lehman Brothers has announced an estimated loss of $US3.9 billion ($A4.88 billion) in the third quarter (June-August), but did not unveil plans for an injection of fresh capital for the ailing firm.

Shares of Lehman Brothers went into freefall on Tuesday as hopes faded for an injection of fresh capital for the ailing firm.

Lehman, one of Wall Street's most prominent investment firms, saw its shares tumble 44.95 per cent to end at 7.79. The shares have plunged 88 per cent since February.

The company had been scheduled to release its earnings and recovery plans on September 18.

Analysts had expected more hefty losses after an unprecedented second-quarter loss of $US2.8 billion ($A3.5 billion)._

http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-513806


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## Jewels (11 September 2008)

Hi Fellow Sundance resources shareholders.  Just a bit of heads up to let you all know that Don Lewis (MD of SDL) will be speaking at the 3rd anual Iron ore insights conference, in Berlin on the 30th of September.  The following is how his talk is advertised in the program;

Mbalam iron ore project, Cameroon coming onto the global radar as a world-scale iron ore project

Overview of the Mbalam iron ore project 
Resource definition 
Project scope 
Supplying the strategic markets in Europe, Middle East and Asia 
Development timeline 
Don Lewis, Managing Director/CEO, Sundance Resources Limited.

I have heard an unsubstansiated rumour that Sundance may be looking towards European steel mills for sale of their DSO quality ore, is anybody able to confirm this.

Do you think that we may see interest from European Insto's in SDL post the conference?  Remembering that SDL is also listed in Germany.

Can anybody tell me if it is possible to arbitrage SDL, and if anybody is doing it, which brokers they could recomend?  I suspect that there may be some arbitrage opportunities coming up in the near future.
Thanks.. J.
Go to www.iron-ore.eu for Iron ore insights program.


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## Lucky_Country (11 September 2008)

Thanks for the info I would have to say that the EU would be the obviuos place for SDL to ship to.
Ken Talbot has got connections with ArcellorMittal through his MCC dealings.
Seems SDL is going places and news is coming out more and more the market is just in no mood to jump in just yet but  should do well on a recovery.


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## Piggy Bank (11 September 2008)

Good find Jewels.  

Agree that SDL is a very proactive company.  Positive news and project advancement has been moving along steadily.  This has supported the share price during the current financial turmoil and bodes well for significant upside along with a general market recovery.


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## Jewels (11 September 2008)

Confirmation of previous unsabstantiated rumour.  New presentation available on Sundances website, possibly the powerpoint presentation for the European conference.  Very interesting figures quoted, suggesting current market cap is a fraction of what it should be.
Have a look and let me know your considered opinions.


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## Piggy Bank (11 September 2008)

Jewels said:


> Confirmation of previous unsabstantiated rumour.  New presentation available on Sundances website, possibly the powerpoint presentation for the European conference.  Very interesting figures quoted, suggesting current market cap is a fraction of what it should be.
> Have a look and let me know your considered opinions.




Sundance prepare powerpoint presentations similar to the one you mention frequently.  It may well be the backbone of what will be presented at the upcoming EU Iron Ore Conference.

An interesting read is the Hartley's Report (29 Aug 2008) that was posted on the SDL website today.  It pretty much sums up this forum's discussion regarding project potential and risk.  This report was obviously written before today's Itabirite Resource upgrade and the DSO upgrade from the 3rd September.

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/15864/company report hartleys august 2008.pdf

I can't seem to get the PDF of the Shaw Stockbroking Report (July 2008) that was posted yesterday?  Does anyone have it?


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## Jewels (11 September 2008)

I can't seem to get the PDF of the Shaw Stockbroking Report (July 2008) that was posted yesterday?  Does anyone have it?[/QUOTE]

Hey Piggy Bank,
This may be the Shaw report that you are looking for, enjoy:
Sundance Resouce’s Limited (SDL) share price appears a victim of global equity markets and associated portfolio de-risking. This is in stark contrast to the fundamentals of the iron ore sector where contract prices have risen over 80% year on year to record levels, with prices forecast to remain buoyant well into the future. 

SDL has 90% of JORC compliant inferred iron ore resources containing 1.2bt of Itabirite (38%Fe) in addition to 200mt of Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) in Cameroon (60%Fe). 

Management is currently planning for production at a rate of 35mtpa of DSO from 2012 with a forecast FOB cost of less than US$25/t (Feb08).

With it’s project potentially at the lower end of the cash cost curve, SDL could be in a strong position to capitalise on these solid fundamentals.

Mbalam, Cameroon (SDL, 90%)

The Mbalam Project is located approximately 490km (by proposed rail) west of the Cameroon coast, in the southern border area. SDL has a 90% stake in the holding company CamIron, while local management and investors own the remaining 10% stake. A provision exists for the Cameroon Government to acquire a 10% interest in CamIron.

Stripping ratio of the Mbarga deposit is estimated to be less than 0.2:1 for DSO. The Itabirite strip ratio is also estimated to be very low at 0.5:1. Itabirite is mined in Brazil, and requires processing through grinding and flotation.

Project Planning

The Mbarga deposit in Cameroon is part of a series of deposits in an ironstone belt, which stretches south through the Republic of Congo, and Gabon. 

China National Machinery and Equipment Corporation (CNMEC) are intending to develop the Belinga project in Gabon, situated to the south-west of Mbarga. An agreement with the government is believed to have been signed recently.

The company is presently negotiating a fiscal development ‘framework agreement’ with the government, and anticipates progress on this front in 2008. Significant incentives in the form of tax concessions, land acquisition for the rail corridor, and other assistance could be forthcoming.

The company is aiming to complete resource definition and BFS studies sufficient to achieve project go-ahead by mid-2009. 

SDL is planning 7-8 years of DSO operations producing 35mtpa, prior to transition to a 35mtpa high grade haematite concentrate production through processing of itabirite ore. A rail line to transport DSO lump/fines and concentrate product is planned, with a slurry line alternative being investigated. Capex estimates for the DSO operation were estimated at US$3.3b in February 2008, including a US$500m contingency. 

Sovereign Risk & Investing in Cameroon

The Federal Republic of Cameroon is located in central West Africa and has a population of about 18m people. 

Total international investment in Cameroon is in the 10’s of billions of dollars, with planned projects including a Co-Ni mine, further oil/gas development and expansion of Rio Tinto-Alcan’s refinery. International companies operating in Cameroon include Rio Tinto Limited, AES Corp, Exxon Mobil/Texaco, Petronas and Geovic (TSX).

Key milestones coming up include negotiation of government agreement, increasing JORC compliant resources/reserves, completion of BFS and arrangement of funding. Site visits from prospective offtake/JV partners have recently been undertaken.



Disclosures and Disclaimers

SHAW Stockbroking ABN 24 003 221 583 ('SHAW') is a participant of ASX Limited and holder of Australian financial services licence number 236048.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The Research Analyst who prepared this report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about the Company and its financial products.
The Research Analyst has not been, is not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report. As at the date of this report the Research Analyst does have an interest in the financial products of the Company.
DISCLAIMER
This report is published by SHAW to its clients by way of general, as opposed to personal, advice. This means it has been prepared for multiple distribution without consideration of your investment objectives, financial situation and needs ('personal circumstances'). Accordingly, the advice given is not a recommendation that a particular course of action is suitable for you and the advice is therefore not to be acted on as investment advice. You must assess whether or not the advice is appropriate for your personal circumstances before making any investment decisions. You can either make this assessment yourself, or if you require a personal recommendation, you can seek the assistance of your SHAW client advisor.
This report is provided to you on the condition that it not be copied, either in whole or in part, distributed to or disclosed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you should destroy the report and advise SHAW that you have done so.
This report is published by SHAW in good faith based on the facts known to it at the time of its preparation and does not purport to contain all relevant information with respect to the financial products to which it relates. Although the report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, SHAW does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date and SHAW accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it.
If you rely on this report, you do so at your own risk. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Except to the extent that liability under any law cannot be excluded, SHAW disclaims liability for all loss or damage arising as a result of any opinion, advice, recommendation, representation or information expressly or impliedly published in or in relation to this report notwithstanding any error or omission including negligence.
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## trendster (12 September 2008)

concord capital are back again taking a 5.10% holding in SDL.

If you recall they came in March this year and cashed out shortly after a 30-40% surge.

any idea who this mob is?


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## LRG (14 September 2008)

a bit like trand trading on a massive scale maybe?

are they smart enough to trade the channel on such a massive scale?

any way as i said before I love this one as a long term hold and am building my holdings when i can on the dips.

good luck to all!!


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## sowhat61 (15 September 2008)

mmmmm Looks like it could b having another dip....
Mayb a good time to increase my holdings.

Any1 have any opinions about SDL long term.. where its goin etc
and the stability of cameroon....

What do they have goin for them so far?????

Holing and increasing my stake.


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## mayk (15 September 2008)

A progress report is due this week. Will give a rough furture direction plus progress to date. 

SDL is a volatile stock to say the least, but over long term 5-10 years will reward its current shareholders.


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## Jewels (17 September 2008)

Good evening fellow Sundance resources shareholders.  Kicking myself that I didn't pick up any stock yesterday at 21.5 cents, had the order in just didnt stay there long enough.  Once again Sundance is holding up well to the turmoil of international markets.  As I told you earlier the Berlin conference is coming up at the end of the month.  But for those who don't already know, you may find the following article very interesting.


Listed for Investment

Cameroon Tribune (YaoundÃ©)

15 September 2008
Posted to the web 16 September 2008

Lukong Pius Nyuylime


The steering committee met in its second session in Yaounde last Thursday.

The Director of construction at the Kribi Deep Sea Port, Louis Nlend Banack, last Thursday announced the short listing of 16 enterprises for the construction, financing and exploitation of the port. Meeting in their second session in Yaounde, members of the Kribi Deep Sea Port Steering Committee made an assessment of the milestone covered in the implementation of the project and the way forward.


Steering committee members had as task to make a selection of investors, enterprises and operators that have shown interest in participating in the development of the port. "Our objective was to choose private partners who have to work in association with the public partners", Nlend Banack told pressmen at the end of the meeting. The process, he said, is made up of several stages, call for the expression of interest launched in July, short listing of partners and signing of agreement with them. "In August we received 24 applications from enterprises, some of which include very renowned international investors in the port sector and following the analyses so far made, the committee has short listed 16 enterprises for the continuation of the process", he said.

The Director of construction said the main task now will be to proceed with the selection of partners. This, he said, will be followed by the competitive dialogue phase and it is after this phase that agreements will be signed with the partners that have been finally retained. "All these should be completed by December this year", he stated.

At the time of the meeting, eight bureaux had been short listed in the process to recruit an adviser in engineering. A restricted call for tender was launched to that effect on 29 August. The results are awaited on 30 September. As far as the final selection of enterprises concerned with construction, financing and exploitation is concerned, a restricted call for tender will be launched on 19 September.

Relevant Links 

Central Africa 
Economy, Business and Finance 
Cameroon 
Capital Flows 
Investment 
Stock Markets 
Sustainable Development 



The good news about the project is that most of the companies wishing to participate in its development are willing to finance their activities. "The applications we have received show that the applicants are ready to finance the project", Nlend Banack said, underscoring the fact that it is a project that has to be executed within the framework of the private-public finance partnership under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) system. Effective construction of the port, he said, is expected to begin in September/October, 2009. "All is being done to ensure that the population to be displaced by the port is compensated on time before work begins", he concluded.

Note the 30th of September the announcement of Engineers, same day as the Iron ore conference presentation in Berlin.
All the best folks


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## golfmos123 (18 September 2008)

mayk said:


> A progress report is due this week. Will give a rough furture direction plus progress to date.




No sign of report.  Given that SDL leaks a lot usually, no sign of a run leading to a good report either.  Are you sure that there is something due?????


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## mayk (19 September 2008)

golfmos123 said:


> No sign of report.  Given that SDL leaks a lot usually, no sign of a run leading to a good report either.  Are you sure that there is something due?????




I am sorry, the report is already published. here is a link
http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/14541/quarterly report - final.pdf

Although it does not contain the two latest announcements of increase in DSO resources.


Also some good news on the port progress front. good to see a big player name like RIO in there....
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSLI61284320080918


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## Jewels (29 September 2008)

Good afternoon fellow Sundance resources shareholders.  For all those who are interested Sundance have released their 2008 financial report.  All 71 pages of it.  I've had a quick glance, certainly nothing to get excited about.  Operating loss for the year of $8.8 million (what do you expect it's an explorer), and about 125 million shares issued to "sophisticated investors" at 40 cps through out the year. Report available on the ASX website yet to be downloaded on Sundances website.
Presentation in Germany tomorrow (give or take a few hours for time/date lines)  Lets hope they sock it to them.
Also big buying opportunity for SDL tomorrow, as I purchased more shares today!


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## mayk (29 September 2008)

Jewels said:


> Also big buying opportunity for SDL tomorrow, as I purchased more shares today!




Me too! SDL and GBG ironically withstood todays fall. I guess they have found their bottom, and have shook the weak investors. 

Anyway the presentation in Germany is something to look forward. Hopefully tomorrow will be an up day


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## Jewels (30 September 2008)

:







> Also big buying opportunity for SDL tomorrow, as I purchased more shares today!



:
If only I could get it this right all the time, still picked up a few more, I believe in dollar cost averaging.
Now seriously folks, with the crisis in world credit markets at the moment, does anybody have any informed opinions on how this is likely to impact on Sundance?  Is it possible that the whole project could be delayed or even shelved?
Any one heard how the presentation in Berlin was received?
Ciao


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## Jewels (30 September 2008)

Sorry don't want to hog the blogg so to speak, but thought fellow Sundance resources shareholders would be interested in the following article out of Hong Kong by Reuters,  I can feel an annoucement of some substance coming on, how about you guys?


UPDATE 1-Asian steel giants eye Sundance Cameroon unit-source
Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:05am EDT
By Tom Miles and Michael Flaherty

HONG KONG, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Australia's Sundance Resources (SDL.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is seeking a strategic partner for its more than $3 billion Cameroon iron ore project, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

One source familiar with the Mbalam project said the world's top steel company ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and South Korea's POSCO (005490.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) had both shown interest.

"I think they're being quite smart about showing everyone the project and getting everyone a good understanding of the project," the source said. "The Indians have been to have a look. Arcelor and Posco have done site visits."

A source close to the company confirmed it was looking for a strategic partner.

"We're anticipating that groups wanting to participate would want a stake in the project to support the delivery of the product," the source said.

A spokesman for Sundance declined to comment. Nobody at POSCO was immediately available to comment. Arcelor spokesman Jean Lasar also declined to comment.

"The official position is that we have a growth strategy based on product, geography and value chain," Lasar said.  Continued...

 The project has potential production of 35 million tonnes a year but is likely to need $3.3 billion of capital investment, UBS mining analyst Jo Battershill said in a report on Sept 23.

Sundance announced a 50 percent increase in the size of the Mbalam resource earlier this month, taking it to 1.75 billion tonnes at a cut-off of 40 percent iron content.

"Mbalam is clearly a very large deposit (and we believe further drilling will result in it becoming bigger) with the potential to be a significant iron ore operation, and we believe this would be attractive from a corporate perspective," Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Stephen Gorenstein said in a note to clients on Monday.

"However, we note there remain risks in terms of financing, infrastructure and country risk that need to be addressed before it can reach its potential," he added.

Sundance's top shareholder, with a 19.74 percent stake, is Australian mining entrepreneur Ken Talbot, who earlier this year sold out of another of his projects, Macarthur Coal (MCC.AX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

That project now has three large investors - Arcelor, POSCO and Citic Resources (1205.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), a Chinese state-controlled firm that has invested in several projects alongside Talbot. (Editing by Sue Thomas

Also I can highly recomend an interview given By Don Lewis to Corporatefile.com.au published on the 28th of May 2008, a bit old now I know, but it explains pretty much everything you need to know to make informed decisions.
http://www.corporatefile.com.au/default.asp?Mode=Report&DocID=13999
Hope this info helps guys!


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## mayk (30 September 2008)

Just want to play devil's advocate... (I hold this stock in between).

This stock is not going anywhere in the short term, it always starts a half hearted run, and then goes back to sleep. But the good news is this can be a sleeping giant. 

As you have mentioned Talbot and now reported Mittel connections seem to suggest that the financing can be arranged, although not easily in the current crisis driven market. 

Medium term I do not see this stock going anywhere until late 2009 when some solid information about financing and a complete layout design of the project will be visible. 

Today was a day which gave me other opportunities (read BHP ), so I did not pick this baby up. 

But important thing is now that resources have been proven, this time SDL is not hit like the last time when it went to around 19c and stayed there for  sometime. 

Sadly SDL feels at home in the 20-30cent range, and I am just happy to trade this range.


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## The Muffin Man (2 October 2008)

After reading the above news from Hong Kong, I decided to have a browse of the Arcelormittal website, just to see what that company was all about. Their website makes for interesting reading.

In particular, I read their mining section with much interest. I'll post what I found interesting;

................................................................................................

"ArcelorMittal is focusing on its mining activities, in accordance with its integrated business model. This is part of a strategy to actively develop the raw material base, thereby raising the level of iron ore self-sufficiency to 75%.

The Group is today one of the largest producers of iron ore worldwide, for capture consumption, with mining activities in Algeria, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Ukraine and the United States.

In 2007, approximately 46% of the Group's iron-ore requirements and 13% of its coal requirements were supplied from its own mines or via long-term contracts. 

Its access to high-quality, low-cost raw materials gives the Group a valuable hedge against rising input prices. ArcelorMittal is actively developing its raw material base to raise self-sufficiency levels."

.................................................................................................

So the company is looking to go from 46% iron ore self sufficiency to 75%. The 2012 target is around 65%, that's a pretty big jump. I also looked through one of their presentations with a lot of interest, under the investment day and conference section, it was called;

September 2008 - Credit Suisse - Global Steel and Mining Conference 

Very interesting reading I would have thought. The company seems happy to invest in Western Africa with regards to Iron Ore opportunities. There are definite possibilities here I would have thought. Much would depend on what other opportunities Arcelormittal has in the West African area, but slides from their presentations clearly show they are interested there, and that going forward they expect to have quite strong production figures from the area. There seems to be a logical strategic partner here if it were attractive enough for Arcelormittal.


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## Miner (2 October 2008)

The Muffin Man said:


> After reading the above news from Hong Kong, I decided to have a browse of the Arcelormittal website, just to see what that company was all about. Their website makes for interesting reading.
> 
> In particular, I read their mining section with much interest. I'll post what I found interesting;
> 
> ...




Hi Muffin Man

Thanks for your enlightening news about Mittal - who is a famous Indo British business magnet taking all iron and steel projects per se

But I am sorry probably your post had shown no direct relationship with SDL excepting West Africa

Suggest consider post such items in iron ore thread


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## The Muffin Man (3 October 2008)

Considering Arcelormittal is looking to boost its Iron Ore self sufficiency considerably over the next 5 years, that they have visited the Sundance site, along with the fact that Sundance will need strategic partners to get Mbalam off the ground, and I would think the post does belong in here. That's just me though.


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## Pythagerous (3 October 2008)

Thanks for that information Muffin Man, much appreciated.

Anyone heard how the presentation went in Berlin?


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## ocelot (4 October 2008)

Anybody else pick them up yesterday for .19c not a bad buy I think. I'm slowly building this stock up.

This stock gets traded alot!


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## The Muffin Man (4 October 2008)

Picked up another small lot yesterday at 0.19 also. Good buying if you are prepared to hold for a few years in my opinion.


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## Lucky_Country (5 October 2008)

Asian steel giants eye Sundance Cameroon unit-sourceReuters, Tuesday September 30 2008 (Adds detail, quote, background)
By Tom Miles and Michael Flaherty
HONG KONG, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Australia's Sundance Resources is seeking a strategic partner for its more than $3 billion Cameroon iron ore project, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
One source familiar with the Mbalam project said the world's top steel company ArcelorMittal and South Korea's POSCO had both shown interest.
"I think they're being quite smart about showing everyone the project and getting everyone a good understanding of the project," the source said. "The Indians have been to have a look. Arcelor and Posco have done site visits."
A source close to the company confirmed it was looking for a strategic partner.
"We're anticipating that groups wanting to participate would want a stake in the project to support the delivery of the product," the source said.
A spokesman for Sundance declined to comment. Nobody at POSCO was immediately available to comment. Arcelor spokesman Jean Lasar also declined to comment.
"The official position is that we have a growth strategy based on product, geography and value chain," Lasar said.
The project has potential production of 35 million tonnes a year but is likely to need $3.3 billion of capital investment, UBS mining analyst Jo Battershill said in a report on Sept 23.
Sundance announced a 50 percent increase in the size of the Mbalam resource earlier this month, taking it to 1.75 billion tonnes at a cut-off of 40 percent iron content.
"Mbalam is clearly a very large deposit (and we believe further drilling will result in it becoming bigger) with the potential to be a significant iron ore operation, and we believe this would be attractive from a corporate perspective," Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Stephen Gorenstein said in a note to clients on Monday.
"However, we note there remain risks in terms of financing, infrastructure and country risk that need to be addressed before it can reach its potential," he added.
Sundance's top shareholder, with a 19.74 percent stake, is Australian mining entrepreneur Ken Talbot, who earlier this year sold out of another of his projects, Macarthur Coal.
That project now has three large investors - Arcelor, POSCO and Citic Resources, a Chinese state-controlled firm that has invested in several projects alongside Talbot. (Editing by Sue Thomas)


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## Jewels (6 October 2008)

Hi IJH,
Thanks for the posting, but it was posted on this site on the 30th.  Keep up the good work though and please keep us informed.
all the best.
J


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## Lucky_Country (6 October 2008)

India's steel imports jump 50 per cent in April-September news 

04 October 2008 

Mumbai: Steel imports into the country has shot up 50 per cent to about 3 million tonnes during the first six months of the current financial year (2008-09), as compared to the corresponding period in the last fiscal, Steel Secretary Pawan Kumar Rastogi has said. 

Addressing a meeting of steel consumers in the capital, minister for steel Ram Vilas Paswan also said India was expected to continue to be a net importer of steel in the current fiscal following the huge demand supply mismatch. 

''Whereas the demand for steel continues to be at around 11.2 per cent, the production growth in the first half of the year has been only 5.2 per cent,'' Rastogi said.

Steel imports into the country totaled 6 million tonnes in 2007-08 amidst a growing demand for alloy steels, he said.

Growth of steel consumption in the country is outstripping production, and even at full capacity production, the country will still be importing an increasing quantity of steel, he said.

India's current steel production of 58.64 million tonnes is expected to rise 6 per cent in fiscal 2008-09 while demand will grow at around 12 per cent. 

The country's steel demand is expected to reach 109 million tonnes by 2012-13 and the government has envisaged a total production of 124 million tonnes, excluding the proposed greenfield projects of Posco and ArcelorMittal, he said. 

''We should be able to achieve the production target. SAIL has placed work orders worth Rs30,000 crore for its proposed augmentation of capacity to 26 million tonnes,'' he said. 

While global demand for steel has gone down, India's steel consumption and demand is expected to grow as its infrastructure sector is booming, he said, adding that global steel prices have softened by about $350 a tonne. 

Rastogi, however, said the amount of steel imports for the whole of fiscal 2009 would depend on prices and demand.

He also pointed to a likelihood of demand coming down as the real estate sector slows amidst high interest rates and a slowing economy.

Major steel companies like South Korea's Posco and Arcelor Mittal are planning to set up steel plants in India attracted by the ample reserves of iron ore. State-run Steel Authority of India Ltd and National Mineral Development Corp are also investing in steel mills. 

Four Chinese steel firms - Shougang Steel, Angang Steel, Shandong Iron and Steel and Hebei Iron and Steel - on the other hand, are planning production cutbacks of up to 20 per cent or up to 20 million tonnes, in a bid to cut iron ore imports and support prices, the official Xinhua agency said. The four have a combined capacity of 100 million tonnes of crude steel.


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## LRG (6 October 2008)

excellent buying today!

I got a few more at 17.5.

I wish I was cashed up to buy more.

Big money is coming in on my indicators so I suspect it could head north soon.

As before in 2012, this is when the pay off is really going to come to all us faithful paitent holders.

I continue to back Talbot's acumen in making this another great success story.


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## The Muffin Man (7 October 2008)

As has always been the key with this stock, and is even more critical now during the current prevailing economic conditions, is that a strategic partner needs to be secured. This partner needs to be secured, and much more detail needs to be made public as to the final infrastructure costs, before the share price will head north with any great momentum/longevity. 

For example, within recent SDL presentations, the Port figure within the CAPEX is still at $500-$600m. If you go through the articles within this thread, you will see that $500-$600m is the total cost to construct the port which SDL is in the shortlist of. The thing is though, there are many other companies on the shortlist, and SDL won't be building the port on their own. I would expect SDL to have to pay a much smaller portion than $500-$600m. However, this is the figure that is still quoted in the CAPEX of the project, being $3.2B with contingencies. I think that until there is more certainty as to who will pay for what as far as infrastructure goes, and SDL can be more specific as to what costs they will need to bare, potential strategic partners will hold off.

I don't think increased JORC resources will result in sustained share price appreciation, the above needs to happen. I think it will eventually, but the next however many months might be a little tough for holders. I'm keeping the faith.


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## Jewels (7 October 2008)

Has anybody been to the Sundance Resources presentation in Sydney today?  If so I would love to hear what your opinion of it was, and what was said about the immediate future of SDL in respect to the current market meltdown.


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## golfmos123 (7 October 2008)

The Muffin Man said:


> As has always been the key with this stock, and is even more critical now during the current prevailing economic conditions, is that a strategic partner needs to be secured. This partner needs to be secured, and much more detail needs to be made public as to the final infrastructure costs, before the share price will head north with any great momentum/longevity.




I don't think you'll get many arguments on that front.  But it seems like the company has been doing the right things by getting interested parties in to have a look at their plans and operation.  Seems to me they are doing things right, but any SP appreciation is going to take time.

As you also stated, this is more important to any sustained SP rise than any further JORC announcements regarding what is in the ground.


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## Jewels (8 October 2008)

I don't think we want Sundance to make any bold announcements in the near future.  The way the market is at the moment I don't think it's going to have a big influence on the share price.  See CVN's announcement today.
Any thoughts Sundance Guru's?


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## Pythagerous (9 October 2008)

SDL down as low as 12.5c today...................

Is the sieve leaking something that I dont know about????


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## mayk (9 October 2008)

Pythagerous said:


> SDL down as low as 12.5c today...................
> 
> Is the sieve leaking something that I dont know about????




Look at the volume. Look at its peers (e.g. GBG). It is all market sentiment. People are more wary of stocks which need huge capital expenditure, and unfortunately SDL is one of them.

On a side note the volume has not been extraordinary and I won't read too much into current share price.

I have a limit order for this stock for price a bit lower though, because in an even of capitulation this baby will be hit really hard.


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## Jewels (9 October 2008)

Hi PI,
Apart from the global meltdown at the moment, this article may help explain what's happening, note the last paragraph.  I'm using the next few months (at least 6 I expect) to top up as more cash becomes available.  Don't despair too much fellow Sundance shareholders, take note of the last paragraph, although in the short term it would appear that Sundance will be heading well below 10cents.


Chinese steelmakers set to slash output
By Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai 

Published: October 6 2008 19:34 | Last updated: October 6 2008 19:34

Several of China’s largest steelmakers are expected to cut output by about 20 per cent this month in a bid to support falling steel prices at a time of weakening demand. 

Steel mills in northern China, including Shougang Steel, Shandong Iron and Steel, Hebei Iron and Steel, and Angang Steel met last week to discuss cuts that could total 20m tonnes, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency. 

Zhang Jing, a steel analyst at Steel Business Briefing, the consultancy, said the cuts could be even larger than those outlined by Xinhua. Ms Zhang said some steel mills in eastern China would also cut output steeply, though they may not announce that they were doing so. 

Jing Ulrich, head of China equities at JPMorgan, said the cuts could prove “a turning point for China’s steel industry”. 

“The sharp slowdown in the property market is having a severe impact on Chinese steel producers,” she said, noting that the property sector accounted for 38 per cent of steel industry demand. She quoted Xu Lejiang, the Baosteel chairman, as telling a recent industry conference that the era of rapid steel industry growth “will soon be remembered as history”. 

Chinese steel consumption rose 16 per cent in the first half of 2008. Since then, the three main industries that consume steel in China – construction, household appliances and the car industry – have all shown signs of a slowdown, say industry sources. 

Steel output across the industry had been falling slowly since June, even before the news of further steep cuts, said Zhou Xizeng, steel market analyst at Citic Securities, with some factories forced into a loss-making position by low prices. Crude steel output declined 5 per cent month on month in August, to 43m tonnes. 

However, most analysts expect a recovery in demand in a few months, as government policy shifts focus from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth in the face of a global slowdown.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

Hope this explains it PI, All the best J

EDITOR’S CHOICE
Steel outlook falters as demand falls - Oct-02Lex: Chinese steel - Sep-30Chinese steel consumption set to fall - Sep-03Nymex to offer steel futures contract - Aug-04Steel price nearly doubles in year - Apr-27LME seeks profitable billet with steel contracts - Jan-15Shares of Angang Steel fell by their 10 per cent daily limit in Shanghai trading in response to the reports of output cuts.


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## Jewels (10 October 2008)

Sundance have just announced that they have picked up two new tennaments in Congo abbutting their tennaments in Cameroon, go to the asx website for full details.
What was I saying about announcements in this market?


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## The Muffin Man (10 October 2008)

Aye, it will definitely fall on deaf ears at the moment. A good announcement for the company's future though, I'd awalys wonered how much potential was on the other side of the border. I guess we will find out soon enough.

I'm not confident of any investment from possible strategic partners for quite some time though, especially seeing the news out of China and Europe. Hopefully these rate cuts and falling oil prices can, at some point, help re-stimulate World demand and give everyone a little confidence boost.

Still holding but copping a pounding!


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## LRG (10 October 2008)

Lucky my mindset is still to wait until post production 2012+

i.e long term holder, I bought another 50k of the shares today at 8.6c.

My average price is now 21cents.  I can't keep dipping into borrowings to average down.

The announ is an attempt at more positive news.

They are going to have to ann how the thing is going to be funded and if there will be any delays now to 2012.

I dont believe Talbot would walk away from this - I have to keep buying now below my avg as my cash is available - in too deep.

On the basis that this will get up in the future, as the price heads back to 40c I can sell down some of my shares to free ride it a bit from there.

I hope us SDL long termers are right, or this will hurt me bad and others if it collapses.

Evertime I read stuff on the SDL website - i think how much expertise, how big it is, how much $'s are involved and I think this is going places; everytime I see the SP over the last few weeks I think, this must form a base please.

I am going to do well in 2012 if it hits $5+; but I am going to be in deep losses now if it goes to $0.

Other holders - what is your avg, why do you hold the faith still - are you going to bale???


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## Lucky_Country (10 October 2008)

I think that things may even get better for SDL due to the fact that other companies that were one step ahead in expansion and development plans have now had to postpone their plans until the credit markets pick up.
That gives SDL the chance to pull level on plans and become a prime candidate for funding when lending is available again.
Demand in IO has slowed and may continue for some time but by  the time SDL are in production it will be rampant again.
Yet still havent heard the company say anything about postponements or delays and thaey have until mis next year for funding and development to start.


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## golfmos123 (12 October 2008)

I agree with the last 2 posts.  SDL will have some major advantages over other IO projects once they get closer to the starting line, especially re funding the project and locking in customers.  It is difficult to see that it won't succeed, the trick is getting past all the SP pressure at the moment and maintaining a decent level of stock.  There will be more dilutions to come as they invite new companies into the fold too.

Couldn't resist late last week and picked up another small parcel around 8c.  Don't have much cash left but think this one will reward me well later on.......


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## Goldmann (13 October 2008)

LRG said:


> excellent buying today!
> 
> I got a few more at 17.5.
> 
> ...




Talbot also owns some 15%+ of Riversdale Mining, which has dropped from over $10 a month ago to now around $4.50... so not all he touches still turns to gold...  it does give some confidence long term though...


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## Jewels (13 October 2008)

Just wondering what the more sophisticated investors are thinking.  Now that Sundance has tennaments in another country, does this increase the political risk?  (My impression is that the Congo lacks the political stability of Cameroon).  Does it increase opportunities for funding through cheaper lines such as Government backed securities and increased allocations from world bank?  Does it have any implications tax wise? (bearing in mind SDL is expected to receive considerable concessions from the Cameroon Government).  Will it be more economical to ship the ore out through a differing railway to another port further south?
Any comments folks?
ThanksJ


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## The Muffin Man (14 October 2008)

Well, yesterday and today (so far) have helped make the SDL picture a little easier on the eye.

Jewels, I'd agree with your analysis that the Congo presenta a riskier project than Cameroon. I can't see the planned rail and port projects changing though. I would have thought the deal to acquire the two most recent licences would have been in the pipeline for a while, and SDL has still been pressing ahead with the Cameroon Government regarding the construction of the port.

I wonder how many SDL holders that considered themselves long term investors sold out of the company over the past week from pure panic? I'm not suggesting the volatility is over but heres hoping we don't get into the 8-9c bracket again any time soon!


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## RP_Automotive (14 October 2008)

I've been a SDL holder for over a year now, and follow this thread quiet alot. Thankyou for all the great discussion...and sorry that I dont have anything good to input.

Last week I was one of these 'panic' investors and sold @ .17c.....with every intention of getting back in. I was just scared that things were melting down too quickly....I brought back in today @ 15.5c. My intention is to sat y for the very long term...

I am a little skeptical about the latest lease buying by SDL. I havent taken the time to read it in depth, but from what I have read its just another tennament that needs to be drilled?? Personally I think they should spend more money/time on getting the current project off the ground and keep things sweet with the Cameroon gov - As the Cameroon gov seems to be very welcoming to SDL. For them to take their business over the border, waste money doing more drilling etc etc to me is just driving the company into more debt/uncertainty. maybee im wrong, and SDL find another 1.75b of iron ore????


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## The Muffin Man (14 October 2008)

RP, the way I would look at it, and the way the Cameroon Government would look at it too I would think, is that the more natural resources that are found in that area of the World, the more likely it will be that projects will get off the ground.

Say for instance, SDL were to find another 250m tonnes of DSO across the border (just an example plucked from the air) This would further encourage investment in the area, and would make the Cameroon/Congo project much more attractive to prospective investors. The sites are close enough to use basically the same infrastructure, meaning the more they can find there, the more attractive the project will become in the long term with regrads to return on investment, payback period etc. The full cost of developing the area could be spread further across larger amounts of resources making it all the more attractive.


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## Jewels (21 October 2008)

Sundance have today announced they have a further 2 year extension to exploration permit No 92.  Included in the permit is the ability to look for gold.
What are the chances that Sundance will become a gold play over the next 12 months??
If you're interested it's on the ASX website, haven't checked Sundances website yet, but it's probably on that also.
Ciao J


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## mayk (21 October 2008)

During that panic I picket more SDL at 8.7 cents. I was kind sorta waiting for that panic to happen. Was really a very good opportunity. Wish I had more spare cash. I diversified the money in many stocks so could not buy more. Still happy with my pick though.


On the topic of acquiring license for Congo, not really thrilled. On the subject of GOLD very happy


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## Jewels (24 October 2008)

Hello, is there anybody out there??
Things seem to be pretty quiet on the Sundance front.  It would appear that the Sundance AGM will be on the 28th of November, level 8, Exchange Plaza, I think for 2pm.  Is there anybody who is likely to attend on this blog?  I'll be there.  I'll be asking a few questions, anything in particular anyone would like to ask? (Lets not be stupid now).
Quite a few went through today at 10 cents, anybody lucky enough to pick up a few?  Had my order in but obviously too far down the line to get filled, so have pulled it, and will see how the market opens Monday.
So are we all feeling positive?  or is this market spooking everybody?  Personally I'm looking at the next few months as an opportunity to bring the average price of my holding down, (hopefully not down to "0" though!)
Stay Happy, have faith that the board can deliver, they have a good track record to date.
Ciao......J


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## Lucky_Country (24 October 2008)

They must have some news up their sleeve by now !
Hopefully by the time AGM comes we will be alot wiser !


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## Miner (24 October 2008)

Jewels said:


> Hello, is there anybody out there??
> Things seem to be pretty quiet on the Sundance front.  It would appear that the Sundance AGM will be on the 28th of November, level 8, Exchange Plaza, I think for 2pm.  Is there anybody who is likely to attend on this blog?  I'll be there.  I'll be asking a few questions, anything in particular anyone would like to ask? (Lets not be stupid now).
> Quite a few went through today at 10 cents, anybody lucky enough to pick up a few?  Had my order in but obviously too far down the line to get filled, so have pulled it, and will see how the market opens Monday.
> So are we all feeling positive?  or is this market spooking everybody?  Personally I'm looking at the next few months as an opportunity to bring the average price of my holding down, (hopefully not down to "0" though!)
> ...




Dear Jewels

I would try to attend as still holding some of the useless script. 

Do not feel any one to be lucky to have bought SDL at 10 cents . As the way market is trending I will not be surprised to see few more luckies to buy SDL at 9 cents on Monday  

Bad sign all over red just like Ansett Collapse the world economy has collapsed with backbone broken needing surgery and no phsio


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## Lucky_Country (25 October 2008)

China to invest $445bn in rail systemFont Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print From correpondents in Beijing | October 25, 2008 
CHINA will invest nearly $A445 billion in its overburdened rail system as a stimulus measure aimed at blunting the impact of the global financial crisis.

The investment is part of plans to extend the country's railway network from the current roughly 125,502km to nearly 160,900km by 2010, Shanghai's Oriental Morning Post reported. 

The Beijing News quoted a rail official as saying that, while the network needed extending, the massive investment was also intended to help lift the nation's economy as it suffers amid the global woes. 

"New rail investment will become a shining light in efforts to push forward economic growth," railway ministry spokesman Wang Yongping said.

China's economy recorded its slowest growth in five years at 9.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2008. 

The situation has looked increasingly dire in recent days with export-dependent factories closing and laying off thousands of workers, with warnings from industry heads of much worse to come. 

The China Daily newspaper said the rail investment plan had been approved by the State Council. About 1.2 trillion yuan ($A252 billion) had already been allocated, it said. 

The paper quoted a government policy adviser saying the plan was similar to China's successful strategy for warding off the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. 

"In 1997, we dealt with the Asian financial crisis by stimulating domestic economic growth through investment in the construction of highways," Zheng Xinli said.

"This time the money will go to improving the rail network." 

China's railway network is one of the most extensive in the world, but has come under pressure as the nation's economy has boomed, giving millions more the opportunity to travel. 

Among them, more than 200 million migrant workers are estimated to have left their homes in the countryside for work in urban or coastal areas. 

The vulnerability of the rail network was laid bare last winter when fierce snowstorms crippled 

China's transport systems, stranding millions of passengers trying to return to their homes during the peak Chinese New Year travel period. 

Iron Ore needed for this little project one would think LOL


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## Jewels (27 October 2008)

Hello fellow SDL shareholders.  The notice of the AGM is out along with the companies financial report.  Please go to the ASX or Sundance websites for full reports.
Some of the resolutions to be voted on are to increase directors remuneration.  Now in the current climate, with the amount of drilling that still has to be done, do you think it would be better to pass an alternative resolution allowing the directors short term options based on increased share prices, allowing them a slightly higher remuneration, should short term SP targets be met?
From memory, and please dont quote me on this, I think that total director payments in 2007 accounted for about 10% of total opperating costs (I'll check that figure out when I get time this evening.)  Does that seem a bit high?
Just wondering what you guys are thinking and what is fair and reasonable, considering what other non producing I.O. juniors are paying, and also the current state of financial markets.
Would be very interested if anybody could comment who has experience with other companies in a similar position.
Thanks J.


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## The Muffin Man (28 October 2008)

Jewels, regarding the annual GM, I think there is one question most would like to be answered.

Any information on the progress (or lack thereof) of finding a strategic partner for the Cameroon project would be superb. I can understand the resources are still being defined but there have been a few different groups go through the site, and I'm guessing SDL would have some idea as to who is more than a little interested in coming on board and helping fund the project. Whether any possible strategic partners have indicated a level of resources that need to be defined before the project was to become viable to them would also be interesting to know. I'm not sure we will have much luck with an answer though, and the currect economic climate would not be helping either.

Also, and I think following on from the above, does SDL envisage that the possibility of recession in Europe and the slowing down of the Chinese economy will effect the viability of the Cameroon project? With capital becoming increasingly scarce, coupled with what could turn out to be a lowering level of demand for Iron Ore from China and Europe, may possible strategic partners begin to shy away from such a capital intensive project in the near term? And if so, what plans/strategies/incentives can SDL put into place to ignite the interests of possible partners in the Cameroon project?


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## Jewels (28 October 2008)

Hey Muffin Man,
You took the words out of my mouth.  Certainly if it isn't addressed during the presentation, I'm sure there will be at least 25 or 30 shareholders there wanting to know exactly the same thing.  I think it will be just a matter of who gets to ask the question first.
Have you had a look at the financial report yet?  If so what do you think?
Ciao....J


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## The Muffin Man (28 October 2008)

I have had a look at the Annual Report. I don't think there is anything in there that is ground breaking, or new information. 

The goals moving forward are to confirm their Mbalam resources by in-drilling, locate further DSO resources to meet their target of approximately 300m tonnes (on which they are quite confident of doing after drilling more of Mbalam and Metzimevin), and continue discussions with possible strategic partners regarding off-take and financing agreements.

As for the balance sheet, it doesn't look too bad. Close to $50m in cash and cash equivalents, and no interest bearing liabilities is a good place to be at the moment. SDL raised their last lot of capital at a pretty opportune time as it was before the major depreciation experienced in the share market.

They will however need more money soon. If you look through their Statement of Cash Flows, and in particular take the net of their Operating and Investing activities, you come up with a figure of approximately -$38m. So there is about $50m in the bank, and if we were to extrapolate last years cash flow figures through to this year, they will need to do something about their level of cash soon enough. If they issue a further tranche of shares, that means further dilution of shareholder value. If SDL can get some more good news out before they need to start looking for more cash (like more DSO announcements, and strategic partner announcements), they might not have to place the shares for the current market price.

Interesting 6 months coming up.


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## The Muffin Man (28 October 2008)

I just had a look then at the September quarter cash flow on the ASX site, SDL is currently holding $32.6m in cash, meaning a $14.3m decrease in cash for the quarter.


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## Agent 86 (28 October 2008)

Muffin Man

At this rate of expenditure, it seems as though they wont be able to drill out the new exploration permits in Congo with any level of completeness,  let alone EP92 and EP143 in Cameroon! 

Although having said that, they did spend $12.3m last quarter as well which gave some seriously good results.

I will be keen to see the electromagnetic images of the terrain in the new Congo tenements and also EP143 in Cameroon to see how they compare with EP92's electromagnetic images.

I am long, and deeply out of the money on SDL, but am holding faith for the longer term picture.


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## shccbell (28 October 2008)

Well I'm the same, way to much money sunk now to pull out. I actually believe they are in a good position to firstly survive the next 9 to 12 months (should slow expenditure however) and two to find a strategic partner. 

Never know what is going to happen but SDL seem to have a world class resource and good management so expect big things in the next 12 months. If we are in store for a deep down turn then SDL's best course is wait for global finance to free up. 

Best of luck to share holders but its a pain being 50%+ down


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## Agent 86 (29 October 2008)

After reading their quarterly, it is pleasing to see that an Imformation Memorandum has gone out to potential customers and financiers.

Also, how did their presentation go down at the european Iron Ore conference? Did anyone hear?


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## DowJones (29 October 2008)

shccbell said:


> Well I'm the same, way to much money sunk now to pull out. I actually believe they are in a good position to firstly survive the next 9 to 12 months (should slow expenditure however) and two to find a strategic partner.
> 
> Never know what is going to happen but SDL seem to have a world class resource and good management so expect big things in the next 12 months. If we are in store for a deep down turn then SDL's best course is wait for global finance to free up.
> 
> Best of luck to share holders but its a pain being 50%+ down




I hear you shccbell. I have (had) 10K in SDL - enough to hurt being 50% down.  I still cannot believe how fast the price spralled down due to the GFC and the negative sentiment on the future of iron ore. However other iron ore players who are in production also got smashed quite bad too - AGO, MGX, FMG to name a few...

However this mob does have terrific assets and being in Africa the production costs should be lower - if the project does get off the ground then the SP will move accordingly. 

Hold onto the dream fellow SDL shareholders!  Time will tell


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## The Muffin Man (30 October 2008)

Agent 86 said:


> *After reading their quarterly, it is pleasing to see that an Imformation Memorandum has gone out to potential customers and financiers.*
> Also, how did their presentation go down at the european Iron Ore conference? Did anyone hear?




I also thought that was quite encouraging, at least we can see that there is movement at the station. 

Let's get these resources defined and start attacking the next issue of financing the project and the inevitable offtake / strategic agreements.


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## Jewels (4 November 2008)

Howdy fellow Sundance Deciples,
Yet another announcement is out.  Looks very good, management are ticking all the boxes.  Go to the ASX site for the full announcement.  Can't help but feel opptomistic.


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## The Muffin Man (4 November 2008)

The resource update is welcomed, especially considering that there are other targets close by that may contain good amounts of DSO quality as well as 40% Fe quality Iron Ore. 

It was interesting to read that the company has now stopped using three of the drills in an attempt to now keep drilling and associated costs down. I think this is a good move, as SDL doesn't have huge amounts of funds in the bank. I think it also shows that the board are confident of negotiating with possible off take partners / strategic partners with the current level of resources indicated. Three drills will still be in use though to define other areas where DSO and Iterbirite may be present.

The wording regarding interested parties seemed quite strong in the announcement, and that is an extremely welcomed development.

I'm quite happy with how things are progressing, the board seems to be moving this project forward well.


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## Green Machine (8 November 2008)

Reading through the business section of the West Australian, some confidence for Gindalbie and Sundance holders hopefully! I have quoted a few paragraphs.

*Jones defies market in $162m China Deal*

"Gindalbie Metals chairman George Jones has pulled of a market-defying deal, convincing his chinese partner Ansteel to part with $162.1m in cash by subscribing to the WA miner's shares at a 105% premium"."

"Mr Jones said he had worked with Ansteel, in one form or another for 13 years"

"Speaking from Cameroon, where he is visiting the operations of another of his companies, Sundance Resources, Mr Jones said Chinese interest in Australian mining assets remained strong despite global woes".

"They are tired of being chopped up by the big iron ore miners (Vale, Rio, BHP) over price. They are still looking to develop assets, but its quality assets, I think you are going to see the continuation of that and they will get these companies as cheap as they can but they are not trying to tear us apart."

Personally I think we should be confident of the board at Sundance, their experience, knowledge and contacts should hold us in good stead.


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## Jewels (11 November 2008)

A little light reading for fellow Sundance resources shareholders.  What do you think?  A way of trying to wrangle a better deal out of the Cameroon Gov't by GJ & Co, or a clever way of manipulating Sundance so that Paul Birya and his cronies can get their hands on one of the largest undeveloped iron ore deposits in the world?
The risk with this was always the government of Cameroon.
I love a good conspiricy theory....

YAOUNDE, Nov 10 - Tax wrangles between Sundance Resources <SDL.AX> and the government of Cameroon are delaying the start of work and threatening the viability of a potentially large iron ore project, the Australian firm said late on Sunday.

Sundance owns 90 percent of CamIron, which intends to begin exporting the steel-making raw material from its $2.46 billion Mbalam project in the central African country by 2011.

"CamIron and the Cameroon government are still to reach a fair agreement on the rights, taxes and royalties to be contained in the memorandum of understanding," said CamIron's Chairman George Jones.

Sundance wants a stratgic partner for Mbalam, industry sources said last month, with ArcelorMittal <ISPA.AS> and POSCO <005490.KS> seen as interested parties, but Jones said lack of agreement with Cameroon endangered the project.

"Various rights, taxes and royalties that are applied in Cameroon are extraordinarily high compared to the world prices and should this be fully applied in the Mbalam iron ore exploitation project, the project will not be economically competitive at the international level," said Jones, who is also non-executive chairman of Sundance, on state television.

The interview was recorded after the Australian company boss met Cameroon's Prime Minister Ephraim Inoni on Friday to discuss the project, which is running behind schedule.

CamIron said at the start of 2008 that it expected to sign an MOU with the government in March. [ID:nL21778820]

The concern raised by Sundance highlights the administrative bottlenecks identified by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and potential investors as one of the greatest handicaps to doing business in Cameroon.

Mbalam could be one of the world's biggest iron ore mines, with enough resources to provide 35 million tonnes per year for 20 years, according to company figures.


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## The Muffin Man (13 November 2008)

That's the first real piece of information that I have read where SDL has had trouble with the Government of Cameroon. I've read until now of how the project is of national importance etc, and have expected that both parties would work together to bring about the promotion of each others best interests.

I suppose Biya wants to make sure his pockets are filled by the whole process, because that's where most of it will end up I guess, supporting his regime and helping him keep control of his country.

But in saying that, if Cameroon doesn't come to the party and produce internationally competitive taxes, royalties, and other costs, SDL won't be able to find a strategic partner to get the project off the ground at all. If that happens, no-one wins. No taxes, no royalties, no jobs, no infrastructure development. What's the use of having one of the Worlds largest Iron Ore deposits if it isn't being mined? And if SDL are screwed over here by a greedy and corrupt Government asking for too much of the pie and making the project not competitive, what other companies will want to invest under those circumstances if SDL were forced to move out? None. Surely their Government can see this, Biya seems like an educated man from what I've read. He knows that the development of the site is in his best interests.

I'll be watching with interest!


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## The Muffin Man (28 November 2008)

Well it seems all quiet on the Sundance front for the time being. I found this article an interesting read, from the Business Spectator re ArcelorMittal;


By Philip Blenkinsop of Reuters 

BRUSSELS -- ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, unveiled plans to slash up to 9,000 more jobs, saving $US1 billion a year in response to a global economic downturn. 

The company said it would launch a voluntary redundancy scheme for largely white collar staff to make the cuts, which could affect about three per cent of its workforce. 

It warned on Tuesday that it might lay off 16 per cent of its US workforce, or around 2,400 people, as it cut steel output there by 40 per cent. 

"The global economic reality means that it is only sensible to adopt such measures," Bernard Fontana, a member of ArcelorMittal's management committee, said in a statement. 

ArcelorMittal, which has a global workforce of over 326,000 in more than 60 countries, has called a meeting of the European works council in Luxembourg on Thursday to present the plans. 

Investor concerns about the impact of a dramatic downturn in steel demand on the industry have been building for months. The company's shares hit a four-year low of â‚¬12.93 a week ago and five-year credit default swaps in the company, a sign of how likely the market believes it will default on debt, have risen above 900 basis points from below 100 at the start of the year. 

A rapid slowdown in sales by carmakers, key users of steel, the Chinese economy cooling to single-digit growth, and tougher times for Russia all bode ill for the sector, which has closed furnaces, slashed production and extended holiday breaks.. 

The Luxembourg-based company announced earlier this month that it would cut worldwide production by 35 per cent, up from a previous target of 15 per cent. It also said it would pause its growth strategy and seek deeper cost cuts. 

The company could not give a geographical breakdown of the planned 9,000 job cuts, nor an envisaged timescale. 

Michael Shillaker, analyst at Credit Suisse, described the industry's massive production cuts as unparalleled. 

"There can't be anyone out there who isn't impressed," he said, adding they should be temporary as long as the downturn did not become a depression. 

"Arguably by Q2 we could see steel prices rebound ... and in 12 to 18 months we could be talking about capacity constraints again." 

Earlier on Thursday, the company said it was considering output cuts and short-time working in December at its German plants in Hamburg, Bremen, Duisburg and Eisenhuettenstadt. 

End.


Looks like Sundance holders will have to continue to be patient on the prospect of finding that strategic partner.


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## Miner (28 November 2008)

Folks

Just a reminder for people currently in Perth and have interest in SDL : Today 2 PM is the AGM at Esplanade.

Please come prepared with your questions if attending.

I did not see any concern on raisnig the directors' remuneration by almost 50% for the same period when the share price has gone down from 40 cents to 9 cents. What KPI did they perform to ask for such a mamoth salary rise. If that is the trend, if they will do more damage to get more pay rise next year


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## The Muffin Man (28 November 2008)

Personally, I don't think the board has performed too badly. We all understand why the share price has fallen, and it has nothing to do with the performance of the company. 

We have seen a dramatic increase in resource levels, and the company has generally ticked off most of the boxes it set out to during the year. Everyone just needs to be patient enough to ride out the current climate we find ourselves in, and remember that resources the company holds at the moment are World class.

As you read the announcements, the board says what they are planning to do in the coming period. Generally, they get done what they said they were planning to do. Although I know it's a basic assessment of it all, it's a good indicator in my opinion that the project is moving forward nicely.


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## Miner (28 November 2008)

QUOTE=The Muffin Man;367021]Personally, I don't think the board has performed too badly. We all understand why the share price has fallen, and it has nothing to do with the performance of the company. 

We have seen a dramatic increase in resource levels, and the company has generally ticked off most of the boxes it set out to during the year. Everyone just needs to be patient enough to ride out the current climate we find ourselves in, and remember that resources the company holds at the moment are World class.

As you read the announcements, the board says what they are planning to do in the coming period. Generally, they get done what they said they were planning to do. Although I know it's a basic assessment of it all, it's a good indicator in my opinion that the project is moving forward nicely.[/QUOTE]


Interesting ticking off Muffin Man

I hope you are not one of the SDL directors or having some conflict of interest with that proposal in AGM !!

One basic thing I would consider : If my money say 40 cents has come to 9 cents in a consistent sliding range irrespective of recent global turmoil, how can I pay for KPI linked bonus. 

Currently most of the companies are either freezing the employee salaries or providing a nominal increment for those who deserved.

The directors bonus also linked with the MC value of the shares. That's how Macquarie group always revalued their shares and the CEO got millions in his pocket before departing. That was a bad strategy for company as well.

Honestly I am agreeing to be in disagreement for your ticking off box .


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## The Muffin Man (28 November 2008)

I'm a shareholder mate, just your average joe.

To be honest, I think management has done quite a good job since I've been holding the stock, so I'm not against a pay rise. You reward people for their good work, and I think good work has been done. I have a pretty simple way of viewing it really.

Why base their salary on the price of the stock if the price of the stock is in no way reflecting the work that they have done, or what they have achieved? I don't see the point of not rewarding management because of a factor that is completely out of their control at this point in time (ie share price)

If the World was still motoring along at a great speed, and China was still pounding on everyone's doors for more Iron Ore, and we we sitting at the current SDL share price, then I'd have a problem. I'm of the opinion that, at this current point in time, the decline in the share price is to do with factors not linkable to management or their decisions I guess.


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## paddy (28 November 2008)

Hi all, I've been holding SDL and following this forum for over a year now, first contribution though.

I would have to agree with The Muffin Man on the salary issue. I re-read their 2007 annual report before reading the 2008 annual report, and they have achieved or nearly completed everything they said they would over the year. The share price is disapointing, but which company's isn't right now?

2 items of note that I picked up on from reading the AGM presentation. Firstly, they are now talking about annual production of 35-50 mtpa, whereas previously it was just 35. This can only be good.

Secondly, a lot of the timeframes have been pushed out from presentations made a year ago. While this is disapointing, it must be noted that it would be very hard to secure project financing in the current climate.


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## Diesel (28 November 2008)

Like most of you, I have held a long term interest in SDL as I was introduced to them by some family members. This week I made my initial investment and aquired 1,000,000 at an average of 8.9 cents.

Currently I consider SDL to be an exceptional Long Term buy due to the amonunt of resource (IO) currently confirmed but also the following points;

They have an exceptional board which consists of George Jones who has made a name for himself as an excellent strategic negotiator in finding offtake partners as well as finding finance solutions especially with the Chinesse. He is highly respected and has dealt with the Chinese for several decades which is currently demonstrated with his efforts at GBG and previously MUN.

As the Chairman expressed today "The company is in discussion with a number of major industry groups who have expressed a strong interest in the project in regards to iron ore sales, equity and financing". He also added that these parties include major steel mills and mining groups...

In regards to financing IMO this will happen considerably quicker than most people think. At present they have relatively small cash reserves and will require financing as early as possible. With the current structure of the board and their considerable experience in this area THIS WILL HAPPEN!!

Their resource grade and quantity is substantial and will attract alot of attention from larger mining companies wanting to cement their position in the world IO market.

The planning they have previously outlined has been met on neally all occasions and if not for world market downturn would be significantly further along..

Kind Regards to all SDL holders!!


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## Miner (28 November 2008)

Diesel said:


> Like most of you, I have held a long term interest in SDL as I was introduced to them by some family members. This week I made my initial investment and aquired 1,000,000 at an average of 8.9 cents.
> 
> Currently I consider SDL to be an exceptional Long Term buy due to the amonunt of resource (IO) currently confirmed but also the following points;
> 
> ...




Congratulations Diesel  for your first and very well articulated posting.

Regards

PS : I do hold still some SDL


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## Jewels (29 November 2008)

Hey Team,
It appears that there are some misconceptions on this blog,so as I was able to get to the AGM thought I'd fill you guys in.
Firstly the directors remuneration thingy, like you guys, initially I thought that the directors were voting themselves a pay rise.  NOT TRUE!
It would appear thet due to an oversite SDL had been paying it's directors more than it was allowed to, hence resolution 1.  In order to attract quality directors in the future, and allow additional directors to be added to the board as their expertise became necessary, SDL had to increase the amount that it was able to pay the directors as a whole, hence resolution 4.
George Jones said that the board had no intention of increasing it's remuneration, and infact had decided to make the directors remuneration more transperant  by paying all directors in cash, ie no shares, options etc, with bonuses paid on achieving certain criteria.  GJ did not elaborate on the criterea, but I got the impression that they were both operational and corporate.  If anyone wants to know I'm sure sdl could email their directors remuneration agreement to you on request.

I think we are all very lucky that GJ is still here.  He was in The Taj Hotel in Mumbai less than 12 hours before the terrorist attacks.  Apparently his floor was targeted by the terrorists with grenades and automatic weapons.  What do you reckon could have happened to the SP if the terrorists had of arrived 24 hours earlier (Not to mention poor old GJ!)?

George expects 2009 to be a "hard year", although he does expect the share price to rise.  In Georges words: "for the size of the resource, Sundances current market cap is a joke".
Don Lewis later explained that there was a South American I.O miner that was very similar (in terms of I.O. quality, type and output) to SDL, that sold a 40% stake to a Japanese steel mill for 5 Billion dollars about a year ago.  Now I know it was at the top of the market, but you do the maths and compare it to SDL's current market cap of about $167million.  Sorry can't read my own writing to give you the name of the company, if anybody really wants to know I'll email SDL and get it for you.

Big news for Don Lewis was the increase in output from 35mtpa to 50mtpa, with additional revenues created being used to retire debt earlier.
Infrastructure costs may come in under estimated capex.  Siesmic work on the rail line has shown the rocks to be softer than originally anticipated, and further work at kribi shows that deep water is much closer to shore than first thought, allowing pilbra style loading facilities to be built.

One thing I've been worried about since the beginning of the world wide recession is whether or not 2012 was realistic for the commencement of production, not so much from a financing point of view, but more from a demand and supply point of view.  When I asked the question of GJ his initial words were something like "at a stretch".  He then went on to say that the Cameroon Gov't realised that this mine could go on to provide 8% of Cameroons GDP, and that both parties wanted to move this project forward as quickly as possible.  He also said that he wouldn't retire until they had shipped their first ore.

Also on the world recession George was able to put a positive spin 
on it for SDL.  A lot of existing miners  (read Vale, BHP, RIO, FMG) have put a hold on planned expansions, and minnows and hopefuls had no chance of raising finance.  This meant that there shouldn't be a huge increase in supply over the next 3 or 4 years.  On top of this the quality and the quantity of SDL's ore meant that it would be one of the most cost effective mines, and that in times of recession there would be a flight to quality.

Don Lewis explained that the aero magnetic data survey had only just been completed, and that results would be available in January.  I'd expect that we can look forward to a very positive announcement in January.  Look at Google Earth to get a bit of an idea.

Somebody asked about cash burn.  Both DL and GJ were on the front foot.  Apparently because SDL had spent so much and proved up the resource in such a relatively short time the Cameroon Gov't has relaxed its drilling and exploration requirements.  I think DL said that they will have met the requirements for the lease in the next couple of months.  Also DL let it slip that there could be an announcement very soon (Monday maybe) about a reduction in operating costs at the site.  My gut reaction is that the drilling company that is left (One got the sack) will be drilling at a reduced cost to SDL.  With current cash at bank both GJ & DL are not expecting to need to raise capital in the next 12 months.

Now we all know that the success of SDL hinges on two things: Offtake agreements and the MOU with the Gov't of Cameroon.
With the MOU, don't hold your breath!  It would appear that the negotiation of the MOU is far more difficult than anticipated.  GJ politely put it down to the French Beuracratic system that Cameroon had inherrited from it's colonial masters.  However I got the feeling it may be far more complicated.
When I asked GJ about quotes attributed to him on Cameroon State TV (see my previous posts) he replied "that interview was given immediatly after he had a meeting with the prime minister and the minister for mines, and that they were still negotiating.  The Cameroon Government understands that if the MOU is not favorable then the project simply wont go ahead, and both parties want the project to be a success."

I asked if off take agreements were dependant on the MOU?  GJ's reply was "we are dealing with international citizins who understand the intricacies of dealing with Gov'ts when negotiating MOU's, they (the off take agreements) were not dependant on the MOU".

All in all I got a very good feeling about the meeting and SDL's future.  GJ & DL believe that this project is going to become much, much bigger, and that we still have no idea how much ore is actually there, Mbalam is still open at depth of over 600m, and aero mag data still in the pipeline for other tennaments..

I think I may go out on Monday a top up with a few more.  So many bargains, so little money!!!

Anyway hope that helps iron out a few things.

Ciao...Jewels


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## Miner (30 November 2008)

Thank you Jewel for such a comprehensive response for all of us after your AGM attendance

THanks also for clarification on the salary issue I raised. 

I was a bit disheratened to hear two strong oppositions to my thought and last minute decided to abandon the AGM. Reading your note I realise I should have attended it. 

Any way thanks for  attending  it for others and me


Regards


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## Piggy Bank (30 November 2008)

Hi Jewels,

Thanks for attending the AGM!  Living on the other side of the country makes it a little hard for me to attend.

You have given a very comprehensive synopsis and provided some insight into the workings and future of SDL.  Great work!


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## The Muffin Man (1 December 2008)

Thanks for the run down Jewels, I'm also on the other side of the country so was no chance of attending. The overall tone seemed to be quite positive, and I hold quite a bit of confidence in the SDL board to continue delivering good results in the coming year. Things might take a little longer than first anticipated due to current conditions, but the tide will turn back to stronger demand for commodities and greater business confidence at some stage, and this can only further help the projects chances of success.


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## LRG (1 December 2008)

Thanks for all your comments recent posters.  as previous, I am a long term holder and agree with the prospect that by this time next year the SP should have appreciated a fair bit.  Given the resource size, the management team and the laid out program of developing I continue to increse my holdings at these very low SP values.

I think we have seen a bottom in the SDL SP now (I hope) and as time approaches 2013 I anticipate steady growth with spikes at significant announcements.

SDLers - keep the faith - I think we will be okay.


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## Miner (2 December 2008)

Ken Talbot is an outstanding supporter for SDL.
What will happen to SDL and RIV should the court find him as guilty and send to jail ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/02/2435518.htm?section=justin


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## Jewels (2 December 2008)

Don't even think about it Miner.
Anyway there is no way that Ken Talbot will end up in Gaol.  He has way more money than OJ Simpson.


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## astroboy (3 December 2008)

Talbot to face trial 

Angie Bahr
Wednesday, 3 December 2008


FORMER Macarthur Coal chief Ken Talbot will stand trial on 35 corruption charges in the second quarter of next year after a committal hearing ended yesterday.



He will face court together with former Queensland industrial relations minister Gordon Nuttall over payments of $300,000 made from Talbot to Nuttall.

The payments were made between 2002 and 2005 when Talbot headed up Macarthur, and Nuttall was minister under Peter Beattie’s government.

Both men will plead not guilty. They face possible jail terms of up to seven years if convicted.

According to the Australian, a chain of politicians testified at the committal hearing, including former premier Peter Beattie and deputy Terry Mackenroth as well as Premier Anna Bligh, who all said Nuttall had not tried to influence a cabinet decision when Macarthur was granted a $28 million infrastructure loan. 

While Talbot this year stepped down as chief executive of Macarthur and sold his stake, he has not been quiet on the resources scene. 

This year he took a stake in African miner Riversdale Mining, a 19.9% stake in Pennsylvania coal miner PBS Coals and also purchased shares in PNG explorer Goldminex Resources.


http://www.miningnews.net/default.asp


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## Pythagerous (8 December 2008)

In order to try and get my head around just how big an Ore resource SDL has on its hands, is anyone able to draw some comparisons to other major Ore resources, such as comparing SDL's proposed amount of ore production per year against some of the major players. I am also interested to know how the Mbalam project compares to some of the major projects in the world, as far as total amount of ore available.

Cheers.


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## TheAbyss (8 December 2008)

Pythagerous said:


> In order to try and get my head around just how big an Ore resource SDL has on its hands, is anyone able to draw some comparisons to other major Ore resources, such as comparing SDL's proposed amount of ore production per year against some of the major players. I am also interested to know how the Mbalam project compares to some of the major projects in the world, as far as total amount of ore available.
> 
> Cheers.




Do not have a fundamental summary for you as they are in the thread already.

Interesting article today though at the link below.

Most interesting is 







> "The project has the potential to be a top 10 global producer. More to the point, it offers the potential for a new source of long-term supply that falls outside the control of the big three — Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.".






http://business.theage.com.au/busin...ide-mbalam-vies-for-top-10-20081207-6tan.html


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## LRG (10 December 2008)

possible SP problems ahead.

see ASX notices concorde has off loaded 90 million shares

things look like heading south for the next few mths with finance the way it is and SDL saying it will slow down drilling etc.

hang on buy more on the dips to 4 cents


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## spottygoose (10 December 2008)

LRG said:


> things look like heading south for the next few mths with finance the way it is and SDL saying it will slow down drilling etc.




They don't need to drill more as they have already exceeded their target. It makes great sense to preserve capital now and concentrate on funding & potential partners. Smart move imo.


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## Agent 86 (11 December 2008)

LRG,

I gotta say I dont agree at all with yr analysis.

Concord has only sold 4.8m shares to get them below the 5% threshold. They previously owned  95,950,337 which equated to 5.1%. As they sold 4,826,266 it has brought their shareholding down to 91,124,071 or 4.84%.

Also the cessation of drilling is a good thing - it is all about getting a deal over the line now for the next direction cos there is s s*hit load of IO in the ground to get a big partner involved.

Overall bad sentiment in the sharemarket might get the SP down to 4cents, but not Concord or the drilling being stopped.


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## Justthinkin (11 December 2008)

It's difficult to imagine but not so long ago (about 1 year) SDL was trading at 90 cents...ah those were the days.

In scouring for logical stocks which have been overly beaten to death, SDL must be worth a look. SDL has an impressive JORC resource and does seem to be approaching the project logically and coherently. 

However, I'm not putting SDL in my stocking because:

(a) its cash burn can only go so slow. Circa $30m left at September isn't a lot of money to promote internationally a projct of this calibre;
(b) the apparent progression of a neighbour project by CMEC (Belinga Iron ore Project), fully sponsored by Chinese Bank and offtake agreements in place, construction commenced...doubtful any further Chinese interest until this project advanced
(c) soft commodity markets
(d) small minded , short sighted financiers everywhere
(e) ever accelerating capital costs...​
Best outcome for SDL... someone buys the lot and puts it on hold. Not likley but if it were possible then the question moves to does SDL's current market cap (circa $150M, $120M excluding cash @ 8.1 cents) equate to fair value of work , effort  and rights it has? Marginal. At 4 cents would be too cheap but a willing buyer / stressed seller, hmmmm

These are my views and I am not an advisor. Do your own research!

Good luck today!


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## LRG (11 December 2008)

agent 86, thanks - sorry i did not read the notice correctly - thought they had dumped the lot.

just thinkin makes good points - this stock will drift lower into march / apr IMO.

People will start to loose patience soon and we will be able to buy more at a substantial discount.

close was 7.8 cents today - maybe low 7,s tmw and 6's next week??


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## The Muffin Man (11 December 2008)

Justthinkin, as a holder I guess I look at those points from another perspective;

a) There was about $32.5m in the bank at the end of the September quarter. In the September quarter, $14.3m was spent. Of that $14.3m spent, $12.3m went to exploration and evaluation. That $12.3m is going to shrink rather significantly from here on in. I'm tipping that $32.5m could be stretched for quite a long time. As for money to promote the venture, I'm pretty sure those that need to know about this project already know about it. I know they are just rumours, but if you read reports in this thread, there have already been a few approaches from serious suitors.

b) I've kept tabs on developments south of the border too. The development of a new iron ore province may have some benefits too. I understand that there has already been big investments there from China, but China isn't the only player in all of this. Cameroon is quite close to Europe also, and China isn't home of the World's largest Steel producer (AM). We also recently saw heavy investment in a Brazilian iron ore company from a South Korean and Japanese syndicate, $3Bn if I remember correctly. China is extremely important, but there are others around also.

c) Soft commodities market, yes, at the moment. Every economic cycle has it's peaks and troughs, upswings and downswings. I think it important to remember that this project wouldn't be producing until 2012. So, while soft commodities experienced now is not the best setting to try and sell this project, I don't think it's a huge problem either. Mbalam will also be a low cost producer, with a high quality product, and steel companies are always going to need iron ore.

d) You're right, there are a lot of short sighted financiers around at the minute. But there are the ones like the South Korean / Japanese consortium, that can see they need to position themselves for the future. I still think there will be investment, but only in high quality assets. I think Mbalam fits that mould.

e) Costs. The costs of constructing the mine and infrastructure will have fallen quite a bit since the CAPEX was done I would have thought. Materials have fallen in price, and so will have labour as there won't be as much building going on. I understand you meant the cost of capital itself, but I wonder how much that would be offset by actual material and labor costs falling.

This thread has some good discussion I think.


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## Justthinkin (11 December 2008)

That's the beauty of democracy... we can exchange views, disagree and not be shot. I love that aspect.

No I don't have a holding and like many stocks have looked to include it in my portfolio but too many no's.

Cost of captial is issue B I think in this case. Issue A is in fact someone with speculative capital available and an appetite for all the real and/or perceived risks implicit in this project. 

In a previous review I looked at CMEC because indirectly there was I recall a personal relationship between the 2 coys. Obviously that opportunity is spent. I suspect there is an element of the Chinese looking for partners other than Australians... they possibly already have their fill!!!

Lastly, your point about the forum is spot on... there is a lot of useful and thoughtful commentary from many perspectives. Again the beauty of democracy. My concern when looking at the international arena is that the projects we (Australian coys) are developing are in someway unique in the world... which may not always be true. We need to be open minded 

DYOR etc etc

Good luck!


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## talktome (14 December 2008)

I think this environment is a counter-cyclical buying opportunity.

I am a LT holder until 2012 at the very least. I am hoping the SP stays low for quite some time as I have the goal of getting at least 500,000 shares. I'm just over half way there with my monthly purchases but am worried I only have a few more months before the low prices disappear.

Although I am sticking to my plan, the financing issue in this financial crisis does worry me. 

The thing is, I simply can't expect to make serious money by buying at the same time as the herd, when everything is rosier. I have to buy low and sell much higher.

I guess that is part of the risk.


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## paddy (15 December 2008)

Anyone know anything about the rumouras that Tata Steel  could be coming on board?

Could be why George Jones was in Mumbai last month


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## spottygoose (15 December 2008)

Tatas could bid for African iron ore mine

21:04 IST(14/12/2008)


Tata Steel could bid for a strategic stake in Mbalam iron ore mine in Cameroon by partnering Sundance Resources, the company that owns the West African mine, investment banking sources told Hindustan Times.

International media reports said Sundance Resources Chairman George Jones recently returned from a road show to promote Mbalam’s potential. Sources familiar with the development said Jones met senior Tata Steel officials last month on equity participation in the project.

Arcelor Mittal, Posco and Rio Tinto are understood to be the other potential bidders for the Mbalam project for which the potential valuation is not yet known.

A Tata Steel spokesman said reports of his company’s bid was “completely speculative and untrue.” However, company Managing Director B. Muthuraman said recently that it was looking for captive raw material security. Sundance did not respond to an e-mail seeking its comments.

According to industry analysts, Mbalam could be one of the world's biggest iron ore mines with a capacity to produce 35 million tonnes per year at least for the next 20 years. "It's not clear whether Tata is putting a bid for Mbalam. However, if so, Mbalam would assure a long-term raw material security for its operations especially outside India,” said an investment banker close to the Tata Group.

Tata Steel has a production capacity of 28 million tonnes and plans to have at least 40 per cent of raw material resources from captive units over the next five years. It had bought stake in a Canadian iron ore project and has equity participation in another iron ore mine in Ivory Coast. Corus, the Anglo-Dutch group Tata Steel has acquired, is particularly vulnerable to raw material shortage.


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## Jewels (15 December 2008)

Hi Paddy,
More than one source has mentioned simmilar rumours.  This is an article from the 8th of December.

Barry FitzGerald
December 8, 2008

Following Sundance's international roadshow, a big brother partner for the Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon could be just around the corner.

Sundance Resources

SUNDANCE Resources (SDL) chairman George Jones recently returned from an international roadshow to promote the big-time potential of the group's Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon.

He came back with a few tales to tell, not the least of which was that he had the good fortune to have checked out of the Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai just eight hours before the bloody terrorist attacks.

The Taj Mahal is owned by India's maker of all things, the Tata Group. Included in Tata's mix of interests is a major steel business. So you've got to wonder if Tata is one of the 10 groups rumoured to have expressed an interest in striking an off-take, financing and/or a possible joint-venture deal on Mbalam.

What's more, industry gossip is that four of them got as far as presenting non-binding proposals, raising hopes that a big brother partner for Mbalam could be announced early next year.

The strong level of interest in Mbalam during the current gloom and doom surrounding anything to do with the steel sector should not come as a surprise.

The project has the potential to be a top 10 global producer. More to the point, it offers the potential for a new source of long-term supply that falls outside the control of the big three — Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

That's why steel producers, traders and would-be iron ore mining groups are said to be heading up the shortlist of potential joint venture partners/financiers/customers being drawn up by Sundance and its advisers.

Their interest is as good a demonstration as you can get that planning, albeit long term, for the eventual resumption of cohesive global economic growth is under way.

Mbalam is not without its challenges. Its central West African location and $US3.2 billion ($A5 billion) development price tag were not a problem six months ago. But they are now, a situation reflected in Sundance's share price collapse in the past six months from more than 40 ¢ to all of 8.6 ¢ a share on Friday, valuing the group at $162 million.

That's not a lot when compared with some recent deals in the Brazilian iron ore sector where Japanese players have been happy to take a long-term view and pay between $US1 and $US3 a tonne for the type of iron ore (itabirite) that Mbalam will include in its production mix.

The inferred resource at Mbalam was recently upgraded to 2.45 billion tonnes (mostly itabirite overlain by a higher grade hematite cap).

More exploration will find more of the stuff. So Mbalam is not resource-constrained. It is infrastructure-constrained. It needs a 500-kilometre rail line and port built before it goes anywhere.

An earlier development timetable that envisaged first production in 2012 and an annual production of about 50 million tonnes a year is a tough call in the current market.

But should there be confirmation early in the new year of a big brother entrant to the project, the market could well rerate Sundance and the Mbalam project.

Apart from anything else, 2009 will see the completion of the feasibility study into the development and, hopefully, the completion of government and financing approvals.

Founder and former managing director of Macarthur Coal, Ken Talbot, has more at stake than anyone else in Mbalam getting a move on next year.

His Talbot Group owns 19.9 per cent of the stock. But Talbot has something more personal to deal with in 2009. Talbot and former Beattie government minister Gordon Nuttall will defend corruption charges when they go on trial next year. The men were committed last week to stand trial in the Brisbane District Court on charges stemming from alleged secret payments totalling $300,000 over a three-year period.

The article can be found at:
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...ide-mbalam-vies-for-top-10-20081207-6tan.html

Also Concord have recently been selling a large stake to drop below substantial share holder status, however only just below.  So they must believe SDL has something to offer. ( A synic may believe that they have dropped below substantial levels to allow easier manipulation of the share price with out having to declare to the ASX).
Volume up to 14 million today,  I get the feeling that something is about to be announced in the very near future.


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## Jewels (15 December 2008)

Hi Justthinkin,
At the AGM DL stated that Seismic testing of the proposed railway showed that the rock was actually much softer than initially anticipated, leading to a lower capex for the line, and on top of this deep water testing of the proposed port showed that deep water was much closer to shore than first thought.  This will allow SDL to develop "Pilbra type port and loading facilities", once again reducing the projected capex for the port.
It will still be expensive, to do, but not as expensive as budgetted for.
thanks  J.


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## Justthinkin (16 December 2008)

Jewels,

Great commentary. 

In my experience with infrastructure projects capital costs have an uncanny way of making great projects marginal under any commodity pricing assumption. If I were a cynic I'd possibly conclude that the equipment manufacturers price their components on the basis of commodity values rather than any silly notion of cost plus!!

In a past life I had hoped that CMEC and SDL would have got together, resolved with the respective countries royalties and assembled a single shared railway to port ... surely this would significantly reduce the delivered cost to port!

The Tata et al announcement is really encouraging. And your observation about looking to move away from the big three is very true...

Here's hoping for all the SDL holders.

Good luck today


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## Agent 86 (16 December 2008)

Does anyone have a quick 'n dirty valuation of what SDL might be worth based on the recent sale (October 08) of 40% of Namisa to ITOCHU Corporation, Nippon Steel Corporation, JFE Steel Corporation, POSCO, Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd., Kobe Steel, Ltd., and Nisshin Steel Co, Ltd. 

These 7 companies collectively paid USD3.12bn for a 40% stake.


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## Jewels (16 December 2008)

Agent 86 said:


> Does anyone have a quick 'n dirty valuation of what SDL might be worth based on the recent sale (October 08) of 40% of Namisa to ITOCHU Corporation, Nippon Steel Corporation, JFE Steel Corporation, POSCO, Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd., Kobe Steel, Ltd., and Nisshin Steel Co, Ltd.
> 
> These 7 companies collectively paid USD3.12bn for a 40% stake.




$5.41 if you work on the Aussie dollar at 65cents US and IO prices the same as at the time of the Itochu Deal.
Of course that was at the peak of the market.


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## Agent 86 (16 December 2008)

Thanks Jewels for that. But I understood that Namisa was already producing around 14Mt per annum which gives it a bit a flying start in valuation terms over SDL.

Can you take me (and all interested parties on this website) thru your $5.41 valn. Volumes (Mt), grades, DSO or itabirite, etc.

But more importantly, is the Namisa transaction directly comparable to SDL's situation. If so, on what basis is it comparable, and how did you exclude the 14Mt production from Namisa's valn to come up with a like-for-like valn for SDL.


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## Jewels (17 December 2008)

Hi 86,
You asked for a "dirty" back of the envelope calculation, so heres how I came up with it.

Now at the AGM DL actually mentioned this transaction.  He said that the ore was of a similar type and quality to Mbalam.  So in true "dirty" style I've assumed both ore bodies are the same.  Now please correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember reading that Mbalam had a higher quality of IO, and a greater amount of DSO than CSN, whilst the type of ore is very similar (Once again I think Mbalam had slightly lower percentage of impurities).  On top of this Mbalam is likely to be a far bigger ore body, open at depth and only 3% drilled.

So US$3 billion for 40% values CSN at US$7.5 billion.  Roughly 1.8 billion shares on issue for SDL so that would equate to US$4.16/share.  Assuming the AUD is worth 65 UScents this would work out to AUD $6.40/share

Assuming a Cappex of  US$3 billion (recent testing implies cappex will be less than forcast), and assuming that SDL wont have to foot the bill for the entire rail/port project ( A big assumption I know, but I think its resonable)you can take AUD$1.00/share off.

So 86 there is my quick and dirty valuation.  Hope this doesn't make any Charted analysts out there laugh too hard!

Would be very interested in anybody who can give another more enlightened opinion. 

Thanks J


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## Agent 86 (17 December 2008)

Again thanx Jewels. I am ok about quick n dirty assumptions, but the most significant difference is that Namisa is an already producing mine of approx 14Mt I think.

This 14Mt production should be worth atleast a USD2-3billion of the USD7.5bn valuation. 

whaddayathink?


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## Justthinkin (17 December 2008)

Agent 86 ... I think that under any circumstance there is an enormous spread between SDL's current share price and the 'quick 'n dirty' guesses presented.

Your point is not missed... a significant portion of valuation is attributable to mine condition ie is it at concept stage? Is the resource proven as opposed inferred? What are the barriers to mine operations? Each answer will add proportionately more or less to coy valuation (aka share price).

Securing an offtaker is I understand the current SDL quest.

Undoubtedly, an offtake agreement would add significantly to the share price...by default the offtaker is saying that I am sufficiently confident that SDL will be able to deliver the product within the time frame and to an acceptable quality nominated by SDL. The offtaker has confidence in the project which in turn excites the financiers. 

I am curious though how a prospective offtaker might behave in the current environment. Does he rub his chin wisely and think waiting for SDL to become destitute before he moves? Does he discount his offtake price parameters because of (a) his own internal uncertainty (ie can he use what ever volume he committs to buy?) and/or (b) his perception (right or wrong) that SDL will or will not get the project away and therefore risk pricing the offtake. Basically, a lot of due diligence (on the part of offtaker) would be required to underpin an offtake agreement or alternate a miserable price.

I am curious because "what if SDL does not secure and acceptable offtake arrangement pre expiry of $30Mil (@ Sep 08) in bank?" Does any one have any thoughts as to what (or who?) plan B would look like?

I hold SDL

Good luck today

I'm not an advisor and any comments thoughts suggestions are just the rantings of the little yellow man [wearing a lovely pair of bright orange gumboots] in my head...DYOR


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## Agent 86 (17 December 2008)

I like yr comments justthinkin.

With the likes of Arcelor Mittal, Rio, Tata and POSCO on the sidelines (based on previously reported rumours), I would think that an auction style process will ensure that those who are interested have to show their interest first otherwise they might miss out. I would like to think that our board would not do anything to flog the company too cheaply.

Yes I agree that $30m is not a lot of cash but SDL could easily last a year or so quite easily with limited drilling. This will give SDL the best opportunity to ride out the depths of this earthquake we are now experiencing.

Plus there is great potential upside in the other exploration permits SDL now has in Congo. Atleast the new Congo permits are held in different subsidiary of SDL to that of Mbalam, which would allow atleast part of Mbalam to be sold to one of these parties without affecting Congo permits.

How far away are the aeromagnetic images of these new permits from being released? Does anyone know this?


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## The Muffin Man (17 December 2008)

Regarding the cash issue, I mentioned in an above post that SDL spent around $14m in the September quarter. $12m was on exploration and evaluation, $2m was on admininstration type expenses if my memory serves correctly. I reckon that $14m quarterly expenditure could fall quite considerably now, I couldn't guess to what figure, but I'm sure that $30m could last quite some time.

If spending stayed at the $14m level per quarter, the cash at bank could stretch to after March. Spending has been slashed, so I'm guessing the cash could last to at least past June, and that's being conservative.


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## Justthinkin (17 December 2008)

My note earlier was just looking at possible allternate routes which SDL might take if offtakers are leveraging todays calamity to propose ordinary arrangements for post 2012... nothing cynical.

For example, if they had access to more cash, would / could / should they accelerate their drilling and so shift resource from inferred to probable or proven?

At face value, dealing with some of the outstanding issues with local government wouldn't be a bad thing either.

Are there other steps they can take to soldify their share price as a precursor to inevitable capital raising?

Cheers


----------



## Jewels (17 December 2008)

Aero mag survey was completed on the day of the AGM.  Results shoulde be available in January according to DL.  Drilling Company has been given equity to reduce drilling costs, so concievably SDL could still continue drilliing without such high cashburn.
MOU with Gov't is the big thing and I get the feeling that it is a far more difficult negotiation than originally anticipated.


----------



## CarbonSteel (17 December 2008)

Hi, I'm a newbie. I don't really know how this sharemarket works, but I do know how markets work. Seems to me after reading what y'all have been saying over the last 2 weeks is that you are trying to convince y'selves that you have invested in the right stock. While I agree with most of it, do ya think it's right to show that raw insecurity to others? Conversely, do y'all want outsiders to come in and push up the current bargain price? Cos when an outsider reads what y'all are sayin', he's gonna tell his friends, and then your opportunity for buyin' cheap stock is gone. Is that really what y'all want?


----------



## CarbonSteel (17 December 2008)

Hey Jewels, can you qualify/quantify your "feeling" that MOU is more difficult to obtain than previously thought? On what exactly do you base this feeling?


----------



## Jewels (17 December 2008)

Two things, firstly the Mou was first touted over 12 months ago, and secondly at the AGM George Jones said it was a lot tougher than he thought, and when questioned about how long it could take by somebody he said don't hold your breath.

I agree with your sentiments, and at times this blogg does appear to be a Sundance Resources shareholders support group, however I really dont think that anything said on this blogg, or for that matter on any other blogg in Aus would have any effect on the share price.

I think there are a lot of people sitting on huge losses with SDL from 12 months ago when the merge with GBG was spruked, and the fact that the share price has plummeted so much has almost made them affraid to believe that it wont go ahead.

But at the end of the day it is going to be the 3rd or 4th largest Iron ore mine in the world that isn't owned by the big three, the 10th largest I.O. mine in the world, and when up and running account for 8% of Cameroons total GDP.    Because of this It will also be eligaible for funding from various orginisations such as the world bank hopefully leading to reduced cost of capital. The cost of getting the ore out of the ground is so much lower than so many of it's competitors, That much ore is just way to juicy to be left in the ground.

It will happen, and when it does it will be worth a bucket load, the question is when?

If you are new to the share market and in WA read todays article in the West Australian by Marcus Padley, it's brilliant.  Explains what the future may hold and how to take control of the market.  Dont think the west put it on the web though.
Briefly he says set your stop loss at 5% (or whatever figure you are comfortable with) and keep the stop loss 5% the high each time. (set a rolling stop loss) .  He is basically saying that in this market the only way to be in control is to become a trader, and not an investor.
But then again Marcus is a broker, and brokers will make far more money if investors become traders.

For a new guy to the market there are companies out there trading below there current cash value, so you are basically getting the company for free.  You just have to do your own research and find out which ones they are.

And above all don't make any inveetment decisions based on what people say here.
Good luck Carbon Steel, I think you're entering the market at one of the most opportunistic times in history.


----------



## talktome (17 December 2008)

Jewels said:


> I think you're entering the market at one of the most opportunistic times in history.




Absolutely! I am really happy too with the way things are with the markets as I am in my early 30's, earning Yen and saving well. 

C'mon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Justthinkin (18 December 2008)

It's about half time and SDL volumes seem on the 'higher than lately' side at a round 11 to 12 million. I don't have access to course of trades screen... if anyone does I wouldn't mind some feedback if indeed there are any strange parcels.


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## MS+Tradesim (18 December 2008)

Justthinkin said:


> It's about half time and SDL volumes seem on the 'higher than lately' side at a round 11 to 12 million. I don't have access to course of trades screen... if anyone does I wouldn't mind some feedback if indeed there are any strange parcels.




Opening auction was strange. There were a number of large (multi-million) sell orders and plenty of buyers to soak it up. Since then, not much.... Maybe it has something to do with ASX/Futs arbing that TH was talking about.


----------



## quinn123 (18 December 2008)

I'm not exactly sure what you mean becasue I'm new to shares but I saw around 2 million shares going for 0.078c today.


----------



## spottygoose (18 December 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Opening auction was strange. There were a number of large (multi-million) sell orders and plenty of buyers to soak it up. Since then, not much.... Maybe it has something to do with ASX/Futs arbing that TH was talking about.




Apparently the reason for the pre-open stacks this mornig was just the quarterly option expiry adjustments.


----------



## Justthinkin (18 December 2008)

Thanks MS+ ... it is strange and I don't understand it either. I'll need to do a little more digging... as you say possibly just some form of SFE related cross??


----------



## Lucky_Country (18 December 2008)

Are concord dumping there share in SDL ?

Shareprice is struggling to hold up at the momment could go lower but long term it will be a winner.

I will be glad to see the MOU signed.


----------



## Justthinkin (19 December 2008)

An interesting announcement this morning. Seemingly SDL ahve established with Government a Framework to conclude MOU in coming months. Extremely useful if agreement / understanding has substance. Most importantly, Cameroon Govt taking a greater interest (up to 25%) which is a very powerful/useful statement from SDL's perspective.

At face value, great news for SDL holders!!

Good luck today.

DYOR


----------



## golfmos123 (19 December 2008)

Justthinkin said:


> Thanks MS+ ... it is strange and I don't understand it either. I'll need to do a little more digging... as you say possibly just some form of SFE related cross??





Many others at some stage on this thread have noted that SDL leaks like a sieve around announcement time.  This could have been another example???  Not quite the same as a few other times but could be a reason....


----------



## The Muffin Man (19 December 2008)

I would have thought this would have been very good news for shareholders, but the market seems to be shrugging it's shoulders at the minute, with SDL trading currently at 7.9c up 1.28%.

Let's go through the announcement;

OK, so firstly there has been an agreement 'in principle,' which while is a very good step in the right direction, doesn't set anythnig in stone. The Government of Cameroon does however seem to be supporting the project quite well which to me is very encouraging.

The concessions that the Government seems willing to make can only be good news for SDL trying to find strategic partners / off-take agreements. Tax concessions, investment incentives, and equity support all seem like big pluses for the project in it's bid to be internationally competitive. 

The way I read it, the guts of the announcement is on the second page. The Cameroon Government now has the right to obtain a further 15% of CamIron if it pleases. If this happens, the Goverment will increase it's holding to 25% of CamIron as it already holds 10%. What does everyone think about this? 

I see it as a good thing from the point of view that they will have to contribute to the project financing (though I'm assuming only for the 15% not the full 25% which is a bit of a pity!). 

It is also possibly a good thing for Sundance cash flow wise. The price of obtaining the 15% is 50% of the total costs of the project prior to funding of construction. Does anyone have a possible figure for this 50%? I might do some digging. In any event, it will help alleviate cash flow problems if of course the decison to buy the 15% comes before SDL needs to raise more funds.

One possible problem I see is that SDL's holding of CamIron is now down to 75%. How much more room to maneuver does this give the company negotiation wise regarding strategic partners / offtake agreements etc? I'm not 100% sure how they work to be honest, so any thoughts about this would be much appreciated.


----------



## The Muffin Man (19 December 2008)

I suppose when your analysing the possible Government purchase of 15%, the big question is what is 50% of the costs attributed to the project so far. We might have to shoot off some emails to get the answer.


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## Justthinkin (19 December 2008)

TMM

My take is that it is on balance a good thing. I'm very encouraged that the Govt now has some skin in the game. 

Re strategic partners and offtakers. I think it is really useful to consider them in isolation. I have in a past life seen too many deals become overly complex when you blend an equity position with an exclusive off-take arrangement.

Key offtake price ingredients include project commissioning risk and  counterparty risk (incl credit). Fundamental to this project is the governments engagement/facilitation which I suspect would be an imperative to acheiving project commissioning. In this regard, the announcement I think is extremely valuable as SDL is negotiating off-take arrangements.

Logically, if robust offtake arrangements can be secured, strategic partners and financiers should logically glide into place.

Here's hoping. But I think 1 step at a time. Moreover, it's Xmas and unless there's another announcement in the next few days I doubt we'll see much movement. Possible media airplay over the weekend will give ita spurt on Monday.

Cheers

DYOR


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## CarbonSteel (22 December 2008)

"... Mbalam Convention...expected to be ratified....following the completion of the Project Feasibilty Study". 

Does anyone know what the timetable is for the " Project Feasibilty Study", and what it entails exactly?


----------



## $undancekid (22 December 2008)

CarbonSteel said:


> "... Mbalam Convention...expected to be ratified....following the completion of the Project Feasibilty Study".
> 
> Does anyone know what the timetable is for the " Project Feasibilty Study", and what it entails exactly?




Hi all i could find was the statement by Don Lewis that the focus of 2009 would be the Feasibility study here; http://www.miningweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=74418&sn=Detail


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## CarbonSteel (22 December 2008)

$undancekid said:


> Hi all i could find was the statement by Don Lewis that the focus of 2009 would be the Feasibility study here; http://www.miningweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=74418&sn=Detail




Thank you $undancekid. A most informative interview. It appears that the market is absolutely off the mark with its' valuation of SDL @ $0.079 today!!
I had not realised how completely the fear factor has gained the high ground.:nuts:


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## $undancekid (23 December 2008)

I agree that the 8c the market has priced in is fairly cheap but it is still a long term speculative holding that most people in a market in this condition are not looking for. 

I think its an interesting stock with a good long term outlook and that why ill be buying a few in the new year.


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## Sean K (23 December 2008)

Please people, 'value' is not in the share price, it's in the market capitalisation verses assets and profit etc. 

For everyone's assistance, maybe start posting up the sp AND the market cap for comparison with other IO developers.

cheers.


----------



## jonojpsg (23 December 2008)

Hey kennas,
I'm sure the info is back there in this thread somewhere, but just to update and based on recent transactions in the IO world:

SDL
Current MC = $150m with 1.8bn shares on issue @ $0.08
Resources - 2.45bn tonnes with most of that itabirite (some 200m tonnes of DSO)
Cash - $25m 

Recent transactions in Brazil have valued itabirite ore at $1 per tonnes, although these transactions were made prior to the latest couple of months of economic mayhem around the world.

So taking a discount of 75% off that and pricing SDL resources at $0.25 per tonne gives an approximate "value" of $600m.  IMO this is probably a reasonable value to place on SDL


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## golfmos123 (2 January 2009)

SDL jumping up this morning on reasonable early volume.  Hasn't been in the dizzying heights of 9c for a little while.  OFten leaks information prior to an announcement so maybe there is somethign to report soon??  Who knows??


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## quinn123 (2 January 2009)

Currently SDL is trading at 8.6 cents, up 7.5%, 1:18pm 2nd Jan '09.

I read this the other day:
Chinese firm to make $2.6bn investment in Liberian iron ore mining WEST AFRICA
China Union intends to spend US$2.6bn to bring the Bong iron ore deposit to production within two years, and will also recondition the capital's port and build a hydro power plant.
_Author: Alphonso Toweh
Posted:  Tuesday , 23 Dec 2008 _
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page39?oid=75697&sn=Detail

Looks like there is still interest from China in good quality Iron ore projects.  The above mentioned Bong Iron ore deposit is in Liberian, West Africa about 80km from the coast.  I was unable to find any information on the size or type of the deposit.  In your opinion do you see this as positive news, that there is still interest in these types of projects?  

Cheers
Quinn


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## golfmos123 (2 January 2009)

Thanks for the info quinn...

I think it is positive - I don't think that there is any doubt that quality deposits and assets are valuable in the medium to long term.  The SDL board have been shopping for prospective partners for a while now and that is apparently their most important priority for 2009.

The only sad thing is that in the current climate, quality assets might get snapped up for far less than they might have a year ago - potential bad news for speculative investors who might not achieve the returns that they had hoped for.  SDL may well be a case in point here.  Off topic slightly, but GBG are similar - have a large amount of cash, off take partners in place and plans to export in 2009, but their SP has languished somewhere around 60-70% off their highs last year.

I hold SDL and continue to hope that there is much room for the SP to increase before I will be looking at cashing in...


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## Justthinkin (2 January 2009)

golfmos123... your comment re assets crossing at a discount is real and over Xmas I contemplated what the percentage might be given different classes of assets. Cash box companies should be discounted at this percentage, IO coys at this etc etc... what a hopeless task

IMHO it is hard to read much into any bounce. Window dressing was last weeks theme... and this weeks is ??? God willing , getting ready for an early 2009 bounce...

SDL's assets I think do have a certain degree of immunity... after all how much more can they be discounted. Overall however is :
(a) Talbots 20% stake...
(b) the Cameroon govts apparent good association with SDL; and
(c) as noted, continuing Chinese interest (who unlike a large slab of the world take longer term view of the world...) in nigh developed assets.

If I were having a guess (as in _assemble and order otherwise extremely random thoughts_), I'd be looking for an offtaker announcement in the near term. If I were a betting man I'd be punting that the apparent lesser soverignty risk associated with the project would have excited interest by major players lokking to secure off-takes ex non mainstream player...

Cheers

PS DYOR. The above are just the rantings of a little violet man wearing designer shoes and mathching handbag joyfully running around in my head...


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## quinn123 (5 January 2009)

Shares were trading at 10 cents at 3:27 today up 8.7%, and the volume is large at 29,797,861.  

Does anyone know why?

Cheers

Quinn


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## dj_420 (5 January 2009)

quinn123 said:


> Shares were trading at 10 cents at 3:27 today up 8.7%, and the volume is large at 29,797,861.
> 
> Does anyone know why?
> 
> ...




Iron ore stocks across the board were up, copper/gold stocks up, coal and uranium stocks up. Only ones that did not have a rise really were zinc pureplays.

A LOT of money has been sidelined for a long time and some of this is starting to return. 

I for one am bullish on coal/uranium and gold stocks this year. If iron ore demand holds up and negotiations are NOT as bad as what has been bandied around we will see some massive increases for producers.


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## golfmos123 (5 January 2009)

Another nice rise and another increase in volume.  Not sure what to put it down to, but as I've said before, SDL leaks pre-announcement.  I would not be surprised at all to see a positive announcement in the next few days to put some fact into the picture.


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## The Muffin Man (5 January 2009)

I would be quite surprised if a new announcement is not forthcoming from the company within the next few days.

Last two days of trading:

Volume - 13,643,882, Up 15.00%

Volume - 31,146,359, Up 14.13%

Not normal trading.


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## fighting41 (13 January 2009)

Like clock work...

CAM IRON SELECTED BY CAMEROON GOVERNMENT TO DEVELOP WEST AFRICAN IRON ORE EXPORT TERMINAL 

_International Operators Submit Proposals for Financing and Construction of a New Deepwater Port near Kribi in southern Cameroon_

Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "the Company") is pleased to announce that its Cameroon operating subsidiary, Cam Iron SA, has been selected to develop an iron ore export facility as part of a multi-user deepwater port project south of the coastal town of Kribi in Cameroon, West Africa.

Under the Government proposal, the new port is to be developed as a multi-user facility by some of the largest resources, logistics and construction companies in the world. The new port is expected to become a major shipping hub servicing the Mbalam Iron Ore Project as well as other emerging industries in the region.

The announcement was made last week by the Cameroon Minister of Transport, Mr Gounoko Haounaye, acting as Vice Chairman of the Steering Committee coordinating the port development. It follows review of proposals from a range of international developers and port operators.

Cam Iron SA submitted its proposal to the Cameroon Government both as an independent operator and as part of a consortium comprising Rio Tinto Alcan, the BollorÃ© Group and the Vinci Group – all major international companies with existing operations in Cameroon. Rio Tinto Alcan is a leading global supplier of bauxite, alumina and primary aluminium. The BollorÃ© Group is a diversified French-based conglomerate whose international logistics division has extensive operations in Africa. The Vinci Group is one of the world’s leading construction companies.................

Up 20-25% so far today


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## quinn123 (13 January 2009)

Certainly has been like clockwork ...
This is a very important milestone for the development of their Mbalam project.  
Share price is up by 20% atm.

Cheers,
Quinn


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## CarbonSteel (13 January 2009)

Thanks to those companies who have decided to limit IO output by not further developing existing operations. Notably RT for Pilbara and Corumba :thankyou:


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## fighting41 (13 January 2009)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090113/pdf/31fkbxcsrvydkr.pdf

wrist slap


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## paddy (13 January 2009)

Great news, not the announcement I was expecting though. Hopefully they'll follow it up with a positive result from the aeromagnetic survey and we can get a solid and sustainable increase in share price. I'm pretty sure that Don Lewis gave mid-January as the likely date for release of those results at the AGM.


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## The Muffin Man (13 January 2009)

There are articles and links throughout this thread concerning the multi-user port, and the fact that Rio and other major players were also in the running to help construct it. For mine, this is another major box that can be ticked.

One thing I would like to mention, as I brought up in previous analysis about infrastructure and how it would be great if the costs could be spread;

If you go through previous presentations given by the company concerning the CAPEX of the project, approximately $530m was set aside for construction of the port in the total of $3.27Bn.  

Within the announcement today, it said "Recent marine surveys have allowed optimisation of the port design with total marine construction costs now estimated to be in the range of US$160 million (excludes materials handling infrastructure and utilities). This is approximately US$50 million less than the cost estimated in the pre feasibility study."

My question would be, now that all of these other companies are also financing the project (including Vinci, who will handle civil works, utilities, and infrastructure) what is this extra $370 million going towards? From what I had read, my impression was that the original $530 million for the port was if SDL was to construct the whole thing themselves. Could we be starting to see the CAPEX come down? That would be a welcomed scenario.

Following on from that, could SDL now try and work with the other participants from the port project in the area of rail infrastructure? I'm assuming the other participants will need railways running to the port also, which could open another major opportunity to decrease the CAPEX. If SDL could spread some of the rail costs (CAPEX estimate of US$1,423 million), that could be a watershed moment.

Looking forward to future releases, hopefully about off-take agreements and strategic partners. Just my thoughts.


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## RP_Automotive (15 January 2009)

Looks like the ASX are catching on, or have had enough of SDL leaking like a seethe (see ASX queries in SDL announcements).

In regards to the latest announcements, great news. As many have said...SDL are 'ticking the boxes'. I applaud the directors for their efforts, they have definitely delivered to shareholders IMO. Leys hope they keep it up.


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## Sean K (16 January 2009)

RP_Automotive said:


> I applaud the directors for their efforts, they have definitely delivered to shareholders IMO. Leys hope they keep it up.



Delivered to shareholders?



Perhaps they are moving forward in the project and making things happen, but 'delivered to shareholders' is normally in terms of some sort of financial gain. I suppose it was if you sold out in Sep 07, otherwise long term buy and hopers are in a world of hurt. 

That long term bottom around 10 identified a while ago has held OK.


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## The Muffin Man (16 January 2009)

kennas said:


> Delivered to shareholders?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Kennas, I think you will find it difficult to find a significant number of shareholders that are unhappy with the performance of the current board of SDL. In terms of placing the company in the best position possible regarding the Mbalam project, the board has delivered. In terms of completing what they set out to complete year by year, the board has pretty much delivered. 

I think the majority, if not all of the SDL holders, were aware of the risks they were taking by investing in a speculative mining company with one major asset. The board can not be held responsible for the recent fall in the share price because we all knew this would be the result if there was significant market deterioration both generally and in the iron ore market. That's a risk the investor knowingly took, and to judge the performance of the board based on this paints an extremely inacurate picture of their performance over the past year or two.

I'm very happy with the boards performance, and do not attribute any share price deterioration to their perfomance, and neither would anyone else with any kind of knowledge of the SDL scenario. If you are displeased with the current situation you really have no one else to blame for your predicament but yourself, because it was you who invested in the speculative stock in the first place, and you should have known the risks about what would happen if the World economy deteriorated. SDL has been hit by a bit of a perfect storm, as a lot of companies have, especially speculative miners.

If the board had made bad decision after bad decision, I would be the first to vent some frustration, but that simply isn't the case.


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## jonojpsg (16 January 2009)

COmpletely agree Muffin Man.  SDLs share price was pushed up by speculators looking for a quick buck and by the rampant iron ore bubble that this accompanied.  Given the stage that they were at then, it was way ahead of it's value.  Similarly, given the stage they are at now, despite the change in world markets and iron ore demand, they are probably undervalued.

IMO they are progressing very well


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## snopandsnap (19 January 2009)

SDL is not looking very good IMHO. I think we will see 7 cents within the next 2 weeks. I dont think their only project will get up and running for many years, if at all. The price of IO makes it unviable and the port and rail costs are extreme. They basically have no cash and i cannot see a Steel Mill anywehre in the world helping them develop their deposits any time soon. You can also completely rule out the credit markets. Also, Africia is unstable at the best of times.

Brockman Resources seem a far superior buy IMO. They have 110 million in the bank, no debts and only 130 million shares outstanding. They are currently trading at cash value only. 1.6 Billion tones of high grade ore within a few kms from existing, new train/port facilities.

Also, they are currently in talks with up to 12 different steel producers from several different countries and have appointed UBS to make a deal.

Much better play IMO. Good luck with SDL. I have it on watch and i may grab a few hundred thousand at 5 cents for a gamble.


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## Sean K (19 January 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> SDL is not looking very good IMHO. I think we will see 7 cents within the next 2 weeks. I dont think their only project will get up and running for many years, if at all. The price of IO makes it unviable and the port and rail costs are extreme. They basically have no cash and i cannot see a Steel Mill anywehre in the world helping them develop their deposits any time soon. You can also completely rule out the credit markets. Also, Africia is unstable at the best of times.
> 
> Brockman Resources seem a far superior buy IMO. They have 110 million in the bank, no debts and only 130 million shares outstanding. They are currently trading at cash value only. 1.6 Billion tones of high grade ore within a few kms from existing, new train/port facilities.
> 
> ...



7 cents has no foundation, but the rest of what you say makes some sence.

(if you added in the lows where it held it might be OK)

Please refrain from price targets on ASF without some justification.

Cheers,
kennas


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## snopandsnap (19 January 2009)

My justification is that the project will never happen IMO. My 5 - 7 cent prediction is just a guess, as good as any. I do not do charting but I have invested in the markets for more than 20 years and i work as an investment banker. SDL has some nice reserves, but reserves are useless if you can not get them out of the ground.
So many negatives by far outway the positives for this stock.
You will find that most holders of this stock are speculators trying to make a quick buck. I warned a few of my friends not to buy this but many still got in between 50 and 70 cents and now they are left holding the bag.

I would stick to good asset Australian stocks. Small african stocks very rarely make money and most never get off the ground at all.

Good luck.


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## Sean K (19 January 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> My justification is that the project will never happen IMO. My 5 - 7 cent prediction is just a guess, as good as any. I do not do charting but I have invested in the markets for more than 20 years and i work as an investment banker.



 An investment banker and your 5-7 cent mark is a guess? 

Must be at BNB. 

Good luck. 

Nice to have a professional on board!


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## The Muffin Man (19 January 2009)

The stock seems to have found an 8-10 cent range since it followed the lead of the majority of stocks around the World and fell pretty sharply in October. Currently trading at 11 cents, I'm not sure if I can see any reasoning behind why it might fall 4 cents (around 40%) in the next two weeks to below recent support levels. I don't think there will be much action price wise until further information on off-take and strategic partners is released. 

snopandsnap, I guess we are all banking on the fact that steel producers can see past their noses and realise that the current adverse economic conditions won't last forever. The target year for production has always been 2012 or later, so the conditions being experienced now, at the start of 2009, hopefully don't sway the thoughts of steel producers too much. Possible output of 35m-50m tonnes per year (from a base of at least 2.45Bn tonnes) has to be appealing to steel producers looking to secure major independent suppliers of Iron Ore. You're right though, the issue has always been financing. Recent releases from the company do however contain some very strong wording regarding interest displayed from possible off-take/strategic partners.


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## snopandsnap (19 January 2009)

You cannot do anything but guess what these small penny stocks will do?

If all investment bankers where correct, how come most people have been left holding the bag.
My point is this. Why would a steel mill or anyone else pump money into this company when they can secure much safer investments and reserves without paying billions to get it to a ship? Also, Africia is so unstable and you have to be in the governments pocket to get anything done.
The company only paid about 250K for the asset in the first place.
The market value for this stock is cash in bank plus a few extra million for the asset at the most. My calculation make it worth around 2 to 3 cents at best.

But once again, good look with the technicals on this stock.


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## The Muffin Man (19 January 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> You cannot do anything but guess what these small penny stocks will do?
> 
> If all investment bankers where correct, how come most people have been left holding the bag.
> My point is this. Why would a steel mill or anyone else pump money into this company when they can secure much safer investments and reserves without paying billions to get it to a ship? Also, Africia is so unstable and you have to be in the governments pocket to get anything done.
> ...




I'm not familiar with Brockman so you will have to forgive me. But doing some quick research shows their mine producing a possible 15-25mtpa. What's the CAPEX estimated at for the project? I mean, it might cost more to get Mbalam off the ground, but it will produce double what the Brockman mine is planning on producing. So to answer the question, if the payback periods regarding the projects are comparable then the larger project becomes more atteactive the further past the payback period the project extends. But again, I'll have to look the estimated CAPEX of the Brockman project up.

As for the Government in the pocket, the Cameroon Government already holds 10% of the subsidiary of SDL that holds Mbalam, and can increase that to 25% if they wish. If they increase by the extra 15%, they have to pay 15% of the capital costs in developing the mine and infrastructure.


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## CarbonSteel (19 January 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> SDL is not looking very good IMHO. I think we will see 7 cents within the next 2 weeks. I dont think their only project will get up and running for many years, if at all.




Think I'll stick with Talbot and Co. anyway.

And this from

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/16/content_10671286.htm

dated 16 January 2009

"Plans to boost automobile and steel sectors, the "pillar industries", were rolled out on Wednesday, and more specific measures for manufacturing and the oil refining industry are expected."
:newbie:


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## LRG (21 January 2009)

yes, all news is pretty negative in the mining industry - many people being put out of work.

i suspect sdl may languish for 6 months at least?

i hope it doesn't fall too much


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## CarbonSteel (21 January 2009)

LRG said:


> i suspect sdl may languish for 6 months at least?
> 
> i hope it doesn't fall too much




Actually, there have been a lot of selling pressures apparent in the last 2 days. XMJ down 4% yesterday!

Our selection is holding it's ground very well, I think.


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## Jewels (22 January 2009)

Hi Team,
Very positive aeromag data released.
Points of note; Mt Nabeba is being compared to Mbalam.
Possible 100 Million tonnes of DSO quality ore ( no mention of possible itabirite reserves)
Mt Nababa has a 2 to 3 kl strike length.
Mbalam continues south into the Congo as we suspected.
A few holes have already been drilled, and it looks like low impurities from samples taken, Silicon oxide ranges from 1.13% to 1.98% & Aluminium Oxide 1.95% to 3.79%.

For previous posters who doubt this project will ever go ahead:

The Cameroon Government will own 25% of the project.
At 50 million tonnes P.A it will produce 8% of Cameroons GDP.
Will qualify for world bank funding.
Has already won the contract to build and operate the iron ore port.
Capex for both rail and port look like being considerably lower than budgeted for.
20 years at 50 million tonnes pa from Mbalam alone.

Put simply there is just too much ore sitting there to be left in the ground.  And thats with just what we know about so far.  There is no doubt that this project is going to be worth a multiple of what it is now by the time they ship their first ore.

Whilst funding would be a concearn for a Merchant banker, I would have thought that the comming dilution of shares when offtakes and funding are announced would be more of a concearn.

The world markets are in the sittuation they are in now because people listened to Merchant Bankers.

Whilst I agree that a small "spec stock" is pushing it up hill to get funding at the moment, and that the world market turmoil is likely to last at least 2 to 3 years before we see any improvement at all, I still believe that in 2012 SDL will be worth considerably more than it is today, even if they don't start shipping until 2014 or 2015.

In the mean time trade a few here and there and build up you holding.  It may go down to 7 cents, or even 5 who knows, but thats just a great opportunity in my book.

Cheers J.


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## Singapore_Sling (24 January 2009)

*Re: aeromag data Mt Nabeba*



> Hi Team,
> Very positive aeromag data released.
> Points of note; Mt Nabeba is being compared to Mbalam.




Hello Jewels, 
great news, but I can't find anything new about it!?! 
could you provide a link for me/us..??
cheers


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## quinn123 (24 January 2009)

*Re: aeromag data Mt Nabeba*



Singapore_Sling said:


> Hello Jewels,
> great news, but I can't find anything new about it!?!
> could you provide a link for me/us..??
> cheers




See attachment (doesn't include plans).

My question is; how much cash does SDL have on hand and how long will it last them in the current economic conditions.


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## Singapore_Sling (27 January 2009)

http://www.crtv.cm/

Economy: Congolese Transport Minister comes to Cameroon
26/01/2009: Prime Minister, Inoni Ephraim has received a special envoy from the Congolese President, Denis Sassou Nguesso.
The envoy, Ousso Emile who is Congolese Transport Minister was bearer of a sealed message destined to President Paul Biya.

The envoy was accompanied to the Prime Minister’s office by the Congolese Director General of the National Civil Aviation Agency, Michel Ambende and Cameroon’s Minister of Transport, Gonouko Haounaye.

Discussions between Emile Ousso and Ephraim Inoni focused on a road construction project to link Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.

The project is expected to connect Ouesso in Congo and Sangmelima in the South Region of Cameroon.

Both parties highlighted the economic benefits of such a project and reiterated their determination to have the populations rip all economic profits from the corridor that shall be opened.


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## Singapore_Sling (27 January 2009)

..a bit older, yet nice:

From Minplapdat.July 2008
Container traffic that is fast increasing in the sub-region (Cameroon and its landlocked neighbouring countries namely Chad,CAR,North Congo,North DRC.
Traffic associated with transshipment and redistribution of containers along the West African Coastal area,Technical,economic,financial and environmental studies conducted reveal that the project bears a real economic interest for Cameroon and countries of the sub-region on the one hand and a financial interest for investors,business and port operators on the the other hand ,As a matter of fact,it is an over-arching and income generating project that promote sub-regional integration as well as development of industries,urban,transport and energy infrastructure sustainable improvement of the living conditions of the people.
A.4 Attendant projects to the Kribi Deep-Water Port Project.
Construction of a road linking the port to the National and International road network of the central A.
Consensual Transport Master Plan (Kribi-Ebolowa-Sangmelima-Ouesso and Sangmelima-Nola-Kisan development Corridor.

(Ouesso is in the North of Republic of the Congo about 200km from Mbalam.
Posco and their Malasian partners are looking to build a 1000km railway line from the Capital of Republic of the Congo to Ouesso.)
Construction of a railway linking the port to the National railway network.
Formulation and execution of a development plan for the commercial and industrial zone related to port..
Construction of an electric plant to supply the port and the industrial and commercial zone electricity.


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## The Muffin Man (29 January 2009)

*Re: aeromag data Mt Nabeba*



quinn123 said:


> See attachment (doesn't include plans).
> 
> My question is; how much cash does SDL have on hand and how long will it last them in the current economic conditions.




At the end of the September Qtr, SDL had about $32.5m in the bank. During the September Qtr, $14.3m was spent. About $12m of that $14.3m was spent on exploration and evaluation.

The key here is that during the December period, SDL confirmed that their drilling program at Mbalam had basically finished. So you can expect the December exploration and evaluation to be significantly lower than the $12m last quarter. Purely a guess, but I reckon they will have spent maybe $5-7m this quarter, leaving a balance of $25-27m. the board is not dumb, they will not want to get involved in a capital raising anytime soon with SDL shares hanging around and below 10c, so they will conserve as much money as possible.

The other curve ball in the scenario here is the possible deal with the Cameroon Government regarding the extra 15% stake in CamIron. If the Government wants it, they have to pay 50% of development costs for Mbalam to date, if my memory serves me correctly. If a deal was to occur, that would alleviate cash concerns for even longer to come, though I have no idea as to what this figure would be?

With the $32.5m in the bank at September 30 2008, I reckon they could stretch that out to October-November 2009 at least.


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## quinn123 (30 January 2009)

*Re: aeromag data Mt Nabeba*



The Muffin Man said:


> At the end of the September Qtr, SDL had about $32.5m in the bank. During the September Qtr, $14.3m was spent. About $12m of that $14.3m was spent on exploration and evaluation.
> 
> The key here is that during the December period, SDL confirmed that their drilling program at Mbalam had basically finished. So you can expect the December exploration and evaluation to be significantly lower than the $12m last quarter. Purely a guess, but I reckon they will have spent maybe $5-7m this quarter, leaving a balance of $25-27m. the board is not dumb, they will not want to get involved in a capital raising anytime soon with SDL shares hanging around and below 10c, so they will conserve as much money as possible.
> 
> ...




*SDL* just released their *Quarterly Activities* report for *31st December '08*. They have a cash balance of Aus *19 million* at the end December 2008, and stated that expenditure will be significantly reduced due to completion of the drilling on site.
The report also stated that they have signed confidentiality agreements with *12 parties* with potential interest in project *off-take* and due diligence is underway with some site visits in *January 2009*.


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## CarbonSteel (30 January 2009)

Quote: "Twelve confidentiality agreements have been signed with major international industry groups for review of the project. These companies include some of the world’s largest iron ore and steel producers.
Site inspections have been completed by shortlisted parties in January 2009 with technical and commercial due diligence underway. Work will focus on these negotiations in the March 2009 Quarter." Unquote.

This Quarterly Report is very welcome! However, the term "shortlisted parties" does not necessarily indicate that all twelve industry groups inspected the site........or does it? Is there something a little sinister there? I welcome the opinion of others. 
:newbie:


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## The Muffin Man (2 February 2009)

SDL spent more through the quarter than I expected. The cash balance is a little worrying for me now. 

The 12 confidentiality agreements sounds like good news, there is still plenty of interest in the project even in these current economic times.


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## LRG (4 February 2009)

yes, lets hope 1 or 2 of those 12 players come to the party with the $'s to make this project fly - need to see some sort of MOU announcement next or SP will start to head south again.


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## CarbonSteel (12 February 2009)

Worth a look...especially pp 17 - 21

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true

Early years cashflow should put us in a nice place.  Like ... the Maldives, Tahiti, ....


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## LRG (12 February 2009)

Has any one here got the ability to do a future value forecast value of the SP based on the data provided in the latest report say in 2010 / 2011 / 2012 /2013 etc.

ie when will the SP statistically start to head north and how far is likely / possible - even a range would be good.

Previus posts say NPV should be 50c, FV anything fron $5 - $10. I don't know - need a bit of science behind it?


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## The Muffin Man (12 February 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Worth a look...especially pp 17 - 21
> 
> http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true
> 
> Early years cashflow should put us in a nice place.  Like ... the Maldives, Tahiti, ....




CarbonSteel, do you have another copy of the article possibly? When opening that link it says it has expired?

LRG, I'm no help there sorry, not much on the value forecasting.


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## quinn123 (12 February 2009)

LRG said:


> Has any one here got the ability to do a future value forecast value of the SP based on the data provided in the latest report say in 2010 / 2011 / 2012 /2013 etc.
> 
> ie when will the SP statistically start to head north and how far is likely / possible - even a range would be good.
> 
> Previus posts say NPV should be 50c, FV anything fron $5 - $10. I don't know - need a bit of science behind it?




Have you had a look on the previous pages on this thread?  I think some of this has been looked at, but probably not at the detail your after.


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## snopandsnap (12 February 2009)

SDL going great guns. What an excellent stock. I told you bag holders to get out two weeks ago when it was 11 cents.

It will continue to go down as the project will never go ahead. If so, it would be at least 10 years time but i doubt that as the ore is located in the worst possible place. You can have 10 billion tonnes of ore but if you cant get it, its worth about the 400k they originally paid for it.

FMG up over 30% in the last 2 weeks.
BRM up over 14% but SDL down 20%. Does that not tell you something?

I would buy around 5 cents and buy a few instead a McDonalds burger.

Have fun.


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## snopandsnap (12 February 2009)

dont get me wrong. If you feel like going on a diet. Save the cash and buy a few thousand.

They have about 4 months cash left on the books and very little chance of raising capital in the market.


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## jman2007 (13 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> SDL going great guns. What an excellent stock. I told you bag holders to get out two weeks ago when it was 11 cents.
> 
> It will continue to go down as the project will never go ahead. If so, it would be at least 10 years time but i doubt that as the ore is located in the worst possible place. You can have 10 billion tonnes of ore but if you cant get it, its worth about the 400k they originally paid for it.
> 
> ...




Thankyou for that extremely insightful comparison, 

Hope you had a good trip to the outer solar system and back, in the time you have been away we have experienced something called the _Financial Crisis_.

In other news, in the last eight months FMG has slipped from $13 and BRM from $2.50, much to the joy and delight of management and shareholders, and Barrack Obama has been elected president of the USA.

jman


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## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> CarbonSteel, do you have another copy of the article possibly? When opening that link it says it has expired?
> 
> LRG, I'm no help there sorry, not much on the value forecasting.




Mr Muffin Man... I have a copy downloaded. I dont see how to attach a file on the "Send Private Message" function. So, you got an email address? Size is 2.7 Mb.


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## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> SDL going great guns. What an excellent stock. I told you bag holders to get out two weeks ago when it was 11 cents.
> 
> It will continue to go down as the project will never go ahead. If so, it would be at least 10 years time but i doubt that as the ore is located in the worst possible place. You can have 10 billion tonnes of ore but if you cant get it, its worth about the 400k they originally paid for it.
> 
> ...



:bs:

What is wrong with these figures......
CAPEX
Mine & Plant....................................................................US$375m
Rail................................................................................US$1,423m
Port...............................................................................US$529m
Indirects.........................................................................US$442m
Contingency....................................................................US$508m
TOTAL ESTIMATED CAPEX (Jan 08)......................................*US$3,277m*

OPEX
Average DSO FOB Price.....................................................US$63.83/t
Estimated Production Cost (Jan08)*....................................US$19.65/t
ESTIMATED OPERATING MARGIN.........................................*US$44.18/t*
*Includes all cash operating costs, royalty and contingency

So, Operating Margin of $US44.18 x 35Mt/pa = $US1,546,300,000($AUD2,378,923,000) ...where is the problem again?:bowdown:


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## The Muffin Man (13 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> dont get me wrong. If you feel like going on a diet. Save the cash and buy a few thousand.
> 
> *They have about 4 months cash left *on the books and very little chance of raising capital in the market.





Can I ask how you came to that conclusion? Please also consider in your answer that SDL has now fully ramped down it's drilling program at Mbalam, which was one of the major drains on cash reserves for the company. Please also consider that it is becoming more probable that the Government of Cameroon will buy into the 15% of the CamIron business on offer, and pay 50% of all development costs to the date of purchase.

I fail to see how comparing Fortescue to Sundance is in any way valid? One is a producer the other is not. I'd like to challenge that SDL is indeed down 20% from 2 weeks ago anyway;

4-Feb-2,914,200 0.09 
3-Feb-5,481,400 0.09 
2-Feb-11,949,100 0.09 
30-Jan-11,198,400 0.10 
29-Jan-5,718,400 0.09 
28-Jan-3,602,100 0.09 

Closed at 8.9c last night. Where is the 20% drop? I'd say the stock has been very steady and found support.

Stop the lies champion.

BRM is trending upwards nicely at the minute, which is good. But that doesn't mean you have to post outright falsehoods in the threads of other stocks ok?


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## jonojpsg (13 February 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> :bs:
> 
> What is wrong with these figures......
> CAPEX
> ...




Am totally with you here Carbon!  Snopandsnap obviously doesn't understand simple economics if he can't see that the figures above are a clear pointer towards a viable and profitable development


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## quinn123 (13 February 2009)

The deposit is not in the optimal location, but it is of exceptional quality according to the data so far released from inferred resource estimates (high grade, high tonnage and near surface).  I think the location is interesting because it shares the same Precambrian shield as that of *Minas Gerais*, where Vale mines most of its iron ore? (itabirite?-hematite).  The area could be a new world scale iron ore province.  I don’t know how many near surface deposits of this quality remain to be discovered.  Just some thoughts, not advice.


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## LRG (13 February 2009)

good calculation carbon steel.

so can someone now apply the last couple of factors to come up with a future SP estimated value.

i.e. apply the divison of number of shares issued + options that would be exercised and then apply a p/e ratio.

what do you come up with $5 - 10 SP?? - sorry i can't do it - does anyone know how to do it - like a brokerage valuation - "young trader" used to always do it on the "pennies".

YT are you there?


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## prawn_86 (13 February 2009)

LRG, i'll try a very quick simple calc for you. (this will be way off, but will give a rough example, showing that funding is their main hurdle)

Assuming $3billion needed for infrastructure that would mean they would need to issue 60 billion shares  at 5c in order to get that much. Or else they will need to find a JV partner etc etc.

So assuming they have lets say 65 billion shares on issue and they are making $2bill a year (according to CarbonSteel, i cant be bothered verifying this), that equates to 3.3c per share. So on a PE of 5 they would be valued at 16c (market cap of $10billion) per share or a PE of 10 would give them 33c per share (market cap of $20 billion).

So as you can see dilution is the big factor here. Obviously they wouldnt have 65 bill shares on issue, they would do a **** load of consolidations etc but essentially the prices still work out the same. Things would change if a JV partner comes in, what % they take, what funding they put up etc etc


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## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> What is wrong with these figures......
> CAPEX
> Mine & Plant....................................................................US$375m
> Rail................................................................................US$1,423m
> ...




These figures come directly from the Investor Presentation made by Don Lewis at INDABA on 11 February 2009.


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## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> LRG, i'll try a very quick simple calc for you. (this will be way off, but will give a rough example, showing that funding is their main hurdle)
> 
> Assuming $3billion needed for infrastructure that would mean they would need to issue 60 billion shares  at 5c in order to get that much. Or else they will need to find a JV partner etc etc.
> 
> ...




Still another way to look at it...
Borrow $US3.2B @ 9% repaying principal and interest over 10 years.
Repayments would be approx. $US464M pa. or approx. 30% of annual operating margin. During this period, there is still a spare $US1.082B pa. Then debt free after 10 years.

Finding a bank would not be easy!

Operating Margin/Share (after taking out repayments):
$US1.082B / 1.8B shares = *$US0.60/share*
After 10 years (fully repaid):
$US1.546B / 1.8B shares = *$US0.86/share*

Is anyone able to help me get from *Operating Margin/Share *to *EPS*? and so complete the calculation.

Thanking you in anticipation...

An aside.... Onya jman!!!


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## jonojpsg (13 February 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> LRG, i'll try a very quick simple calc for you. (this will be way off, but will give a rough example, showing that funding is their main hurdle)
> 
> Assuming $3billion needed for infrastructure that would mean they would need to issue 60 billion shares  at 5c in order to get that much. Or else they will need to find a JV partner etc etc.
> 
> ...




Are you serious Prawn???  AS if they are going to issue 60 billion shares!  They'll borrow the 3bn from some nice bank in China, and pay it back in 4 years or so after they're producing and earning 2bn a year.  Then after they've paid it back, say 2015, they'll be clearing 2bn a year still with 1.8bn shares on issue,maybe 2bn say which is $1 per share.  A PE of 5 makes that $5 per share valuation (NOTE that is in 2015 )

If you scale it back a bit tho and bring that SP back to today, I still think 9c is a little undervalued.  Of course they definitely need to get a JV partner or offtake agreement signed up ASAP to get the SP to where it should be.


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## prawn_86 (13 February 2009)

Jono,

as i said in the post it was done very quickly to give a starting point, and its worked by generating discussion. I have never looked at this co before in detail.

Funding is the main issue, be it through share issues or from a bank. I highly doubt a bank would be willing to lend them 3bill, because currently that is >16 times their current market cap.

IMO if they want to get it up and running, they will end up owning less than 50% of it, with the rest spread across various other countries. Its just too much risk for a bank or any single co to back in these economic conditions.


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## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Jono,
> 
> as i said in the post it was done very quickly to give a starting point, and its worked by generating discussion. I have never looked at this co before in detail.
> 
> ...




Hey Dendrobranchiata,

Is it entirely beyond the realms of possibilty that an offtake partner might underwrite SDL for a loan from a bank? i.e. this offtake partner does not actually part with the readies and may get favourable treatment on pricing.:chimney

And you are correct sir! I appreciate the fact that you have stirred up some discussion!

A question... Cameroon Govt. will pay for 50% of costs to date. Any idea how much cash that is? Cos that cash might come in handy if it was forthcoming in the next 6 months or so.

I for one do not underestimate the abilities of Talbot or Lewis when it comes to the future security of this company.

Is anyone able to help me get from Operating Margin/Share to EPS? and so complete the calculation.
(See post#975)


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## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

"Strategic Partner Negotiations
An Information Memorandum has been distributed to selected international parties with interest in product off-take, equity participation and/or financing of the Mbalam Project. Twelve confidentiality agreements have been signed with major international industry groups for review of the project. These companies include some of the world’s largest iron ore and steel producers.
Site inspections have been completed by shortlisted parties in January 2009 with technical and commercial due diligence underway. Work will focus on these negotiations in the March 2009 Quarter." Unquote

Source...
Quarterly Activities Report
Period ending 31 December 2008

I notice though, that contained in the Investor Presentation dated 11 February 2009,  the diagramatic "Critical Path" points towards mid-2009, not Q1 2009, for some degree of finalisation. I assume therefore, that while work will focus on negotiations, an outcome is unlikely to be announced prior to 30 June 2009. 

Keep that discussion coming... we'll all learn something!


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## The Muffin Man (13 February 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Hey Dendrobranchiata,
> 
> Is it entirely beyond the realms of possibilty that an offtake partner might underwrite SDL for a loan from a bank? i.e. this offtake partner does not actually part with the readies and may get favourable treatment on pricing.:chimney
> 
> ...




No idea what 50% of costs to date would be, I posed that question in an earlier post, but I'm not sure anyone would know except SDL and the Cameroon Government.

While your mentioning Talbot and Lewis, throw in Jones also. The deal struck by Gindalbie not long ago was a fantastic result for shareholders in the circumstances.


----------



## CarbonSteel (13 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> SDL going great guns. What an excellent stock. I told you bag holders to get out two weeks ago when it was 11 cents.
> 
> It will continue to go down as the project will never go ahead. If so, it would be at least 10 years time but i doubt that as the ore is located in the worst possible place. You can have 10 billion tonnes of ore but if you cant get it, its worth about the 400k they originally paid for it.
> 
> ...




:iamwithst Are you for real man? Are you even on this planet?

I guess the risk you run when you make comments designed to direct people to buy shares in a company in which you hold shares, is that it is possible to lose credibilty. You become to sane, intelligent people, The Little Big Man, a veritable legend in your own lunchtime. Please post more, you are the most amusing plaything! Oh we'll have fun alright! With your posts!
Try posting sober, see if it makes a difference.:cowboy:


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## jonojpsg (13 February 2009)

I would have thought finding 50% of costs so far would be relatively straightforward - look at annual report last year and year before then quarterlies this year and add them up.  

From what I can see, looks like about $55m all up on exploration and evaluation from July 2007 till now.  Don't know if that's what the gov't pays 50% of, but if so would give SDL another $30m or so.  That would definitely tide them over until they get a major JV or offtake organised IMO


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## The Muffin Man (14 February 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> I would have thought finding 50% of costs so far would be relatively straightforward - look at annual report last year and year before then quarterlies this year and add them up.
> 
> From what I can see, looks like about $55m all up on exploration and evaluation from July 2007 till now.  Don't know if that's what the gov't pays 50% of, but if so would give SDL another $30m or so.  That would definitely tide them over until they get a major JV or offtake organised IMO




If you look at the June 2008 Financial Report, you can see under the Non Current Assets section of the Balance Sheet the line item 'Exploration and Evaluation Assets' with a balance of around $64.37m. 

From what I can gather, Sundance is capitalising their exploration and evaluation costs into this asset account. If you follow down to the corresponding note (note 14), it breaks up this $64.37m balance into the Mbalam Iron Ore Project and the Congo Iron Ore Project. Mbalam currently holds $64.27m of that balance.

Now, you need to add on exploration and evaluation costs for the last two quarters, but remembering that there has been further exploration of the Congo site in this period also.

The September quarter showed exploration and evaluation of $12.36m, let's say that $9m of that was spent on Mbalam to be on the conservative side.

The December quarter showed exploration and evaluation of $9.9m, let's say $6m of that was spent on Mbalam to be on the conservative side.

So we have the initial $64.27m held in the asset account that has been capitalised, and $15m from the first half of operations so far this year, which totals $79.27m. This is just a rough estimate and includes no other expenses that have not been capitalised during the time Mbalam has been developed. 

It depends on how the company has accounted for items like consulting fees for instance. Consulting fees appear in the June 2008 Financial Report in the Income Statement. If these consulting fees were to do with Mbalam should they also be added to the end sale figure to the Cameroon Government? That's what I mean by there being some grey areas where only the company and Cameroon Government will know the real figure.

Feel free to pick this apart but I'm pretty confident that the Exploration and Evaluation Non Current Asset will be a very good starting point in figuring out how much has been spent developing the Mbalam site, then you need to add on this years current expenses.


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## CarbonSteel (14 February 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> If you look at the June 2008 Financial Report, you can see under the Non Current Assets section of the Balance Sheet the line item 'Exploration and Evaluation Assets' with a balance of around $64.37m.
> 
> From what I can gather, Sundance is capitalising their exploration and evaluation costs into this asset account. If you follow down to the corresponding note (note 14), it breaks up this $64.37m balance into the Mbalam Iron Ore Project and the Congo Iron Ore Project. Mbalam currently holds $64.27m of that balance.
> 
> ...




Thank you Mr Muffin Man for your objectivity. I believe you have answered my question in the most pragmatic way. 
Let us now hope that Lewis and Co are thinking the same way!
It must be obvious, and I make no apology, that I am kinda new at this and did not have the experience to find information upon which I could rely in this forum, so your input has been most helpful!


----------



## Singapore_Sling (14 February 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Thank you Mr Muffin Man for your objectivity. I believe you have answered my question in the most pragmatic way.
> Let us now hope that Lewis and Co are thinking the same way!
> It must be obvious, and I make no apology, that I am kinda new at this and did not have the experience to find information upon which I could rely in this forum, so your input has been most helpful!




Same here! Great job, Muffin Man and Co., highly appreciated!! :iagree:
Now, let's hope and....wait!?!


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## MS+Tradesim (14 February 2009)

I notice snopandsnap claims to be an investment banker...yet, s/he has a grand total of 5 posts, all in the SDL thread, and all downramping. Not exactly credibility enhancing input.

On topic, I vaguely remember in some SDL anns. about the project possibly qualifying for either World Bank or IMF financing due to its impact on the Cameroon economy. Perhaps someone who follows more closely remembers when/where that can be found. Would be interesting to see if something plays out on that front.


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## quinn123 (15 February 2009)

hey, 
      just came accross some interesting articles.

*China commodity imports to recover *- Martyn Davies
If China turns on the taps for economic growth in the country commodity demand and investment in Africa will continue.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=78330&sn=Detail

*Everybody looking for a deal at Indaba*
Mining experts networking in the halls of the Cape Town Indaba says mid-tier companies are looking for acquisitions as there are great bargains to be had. 
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=78246&sn=Detail

*Miners don't need banks*
In the past few months, mining companies have raised USD 30bn, directly from keen investors keen to lock in great value. 
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=78436&sn=Detail

Cheers


----------



## CarbonSteel (15 February 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> I notice snopandsnap claims to be an investment banker...yet, s/he has a grand total of 5 posts, all in the SDL thread, and all downramping. Not exactly credibility enhancing input.
> 
> On topic, I vaguely remember in some SDL anns. about the project possibly qualifying for either World Bank or IMF financing due to its impact on the Cameroon economy. Perhaps someone who follows more closely remembers when/where that can be found. Would be interesting to see if something plays out on that front.




Apparently, Rio Tinto isn't taking advice from snopandsnap either...even after his outburst about African projects never getting off the ground!

http://www.reuters.com/article/euDealsNews/idUSTRE51C5GY20090213


----------



## The Muffin Man (17 February 2009)

Singapore_Sling said:


> Same here! Great job, Muffin Man and Co., highly appreciated!! :iagree:
> Now, let's hope and....wait!?!





No problems, that's just how I believe they might come to the figure.

You have hit the nail on the head with the hope and wait thought I think. With current economic conditions as they are, securing strategic partners / offtake agreements may take longer than what has been the case for mining projects in recent past. Hopefully the Cameroon Government comes to the party shortly and takes up the extra 15% of CamIron on offer so that SDL can secure their cash position for a longer period of time.

I'm not sure about the World Bank question, but also remember reading that the project may qualify for funding from those kinds of organisations. I'm not sure how that side of things works though.


----------



## CarbonSteel (17 February 2009)

> ...R K Sharma, director general of Federation of Indian Mineral Industries...




I dont know if this organisation is credible, but their opinion is nice to hear!

http://www.business-standard.com/in...-set-to-doubledemanddragon-land/01/05/349121/


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## CarbonSteel (19 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> SDL going great guns. What an excellent stock. I told you bag holders to get out two weeks ago when it was 11 cents.
> 
> It will continue to go down as the project will never go ahead. If so, it would be at least 10 years time but i doubt that as the ore is located in the worst possible place. You can have 10 billion tonnes of ore but if you cant get it, its worth about the 400k they originally paid for it.
> 
> ...




Interestingly, from 17/08/04 till 26/04/07, Brockman traded in a very narrow range of $0.16 - $0.23. i.e over a period of 2yrs & 8mths. Then ... WHOOMPHA!...traded at above $2 from April till July '08, and is now languishing around the early $1 mark, making a big noise about the ability to produce 2Mt/pa. If SDL can't do better than that, I'll be looking for partners for a suicide pact! :microwave


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## big sal (19 February 2009)

One thing certain with SDL is its potential tonnage is huge with a long mine life if/when it gets up and running. They are moving things forward in a positive way and the 12 confidentiality agreements signed tells us there are a number of interested parties. Reckon soemone would love to get involved in this one given the potential upside.

The Cameroon government seem supportive of the whole project, and it would be a huge step forward for the nation.

I bought in at .10c happy to go along for the ride and see what transpires, but as I see it there is way more potential upside than downside, it’s only 12 odd months ago the share price hit about $1 (admittedly during the now not so recent iron ore boom), it won’t hit that again in the next 6 months but stranger things have happened. 

CarbonSteel, i'll take SDL at $1-2 anyday!

Not sure about snoopandsnap (the investment banker) with his position on SDL with little justification, only guessing here but probably trying to push the price down to get in at a better $ than the current level at around .09c?


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## bassmanpete (19 February 2009)

> Not sure about snoopandsnap (the investment banker) with his position on SDL




After what's happened in the last 15 months or so, would you trust what ANY investment banker has to say?


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## Agent 86 (20 February 2009)

There is now a new breed of participant in the financial community - they are called investment w*nkers.


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## light (20 February 2009)

Good morning, fellow SDL holders!

Not sure if this is still a news to everyone, but I have just found an article saying that SDL is planning to announce a strategic partner within the next three months.

http://www.metalbulletin.com/Articl...unce-Mbalam-partner-in-next-three-months.html

As the article is for subscribers only, I could not get much further details.

Does anyone know anything more about this?


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## risdon (20 February 2009)

Yeah old news. Here is the article, came out last week.Intersting that Don says there not concerned about the current economic conditions.Gives me confidense in believing they have a few offers on the table and are negotiating the best terms.

***MINING INDABA 2009: Sundance to announce Mbalam partner in next three months 

12 February 2009 13:55 

Australia-listed iron ore explorer Sundance Resources, with operations in Cameroon, plans to announce a strategic partner within the next three months to help develop its $3 billion Mbalam project in the southeast of the country. 

Mbalam, with an inferred resource of 2.4 billion tonnes of ore of itabirite and DSO quality hematite ore, has the potential to support production at 35-50 million tpy of high quality ore for 20 years, which would make it one of the biggest iron ore projects in Africa. 

“We’re not concerned about the current economic conditions. We will endeavour to get the best terms, but we want to progress with the project,” ceo Don Lewis said at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town. Finance for the project is only expected to be finalised towards year-end, according to Sundance’s timeline. 

Sundance had cash reserves of A$19 million ($12.3 million) at the end of December, and said its exploration and development expenditure has been significantly reduced following the completion of drilling activities on site. 

Lewis said numerous companies have expressed an interest in becoming involved, and the ideal partner would be able to offer offtake agreements and construction capabilities. The ideal situation would be an equal joint venture which includes Sundance, with operating experience in the country, Lewis said. 

The Mbalam deposit is located 485 kilometres inland, and will require a railway line or slurry pipeline and deepwater port to be developed. 

“Major infrastructure requirements are not uncommon in the iron ore industry. Any of the new major iron ore projects are looking at infrastructure on this scale,” Lewis said. 

Mbalam is being developed by CamIron SA. Sundance owns 90% of CamIron, with the remainder being held by Cameroonian investors. The Australian junior also controls an extensive area in the Republic of Congo immediately south of Mbalam


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## light (20 February 2009)

Thanks risdon 

Let's hope they can select a good partner and together push this stock to where it should be


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## big sal (20 February 2009)

Sounds encouraging! Provided they have at least two genuinely interested parties they will retain some real bargaining power in the process.


----------



## Miner (21 February 2009)

Good posting Risdon

I wish they should get a good non chinese partner. If the partner is a CHinese company then they may elect to moth ball SDL by creating demand for other CHinese owned IO operations to serve the interests of Chinese steel maker. 

They will have no interest to help Cameroon and around countries through the ore mined from SDL

Just a word of caution to SDL owners

I Hold SDL


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## CarbonSteel (21 February 2009)

Miner said:


> Good posting Risdon
> 
> I wish they should get a good non chinese partner. If the partner is a CHinese company then they may elect to moth ball SDL by creating demand for other CHinese owned IO operations to serve the interests of Chinese steel maker.
> 
> ...




I understand your point of view Miner.

However, as the Chinese are currently trying to negotiate prices downwards, and Rio has unconcernedly (is that a word) walked away from negotiations, it appears that mine owners have the upper hand. (Perhaps a parallel example - Would we tell the Saudis that we don't want to buy any oil from them ever again?) So, I guess my point is that the Chinese best interest would actually be to operate and mine the hell out of Mbalam and use this readily available supply as their bargaining chip with Rio, BHP and Vale.

It seems that the Chinese are not averse to playing games to try to advance their case for the purposes of negotiation. The Indians were quoted early last week as saying they expected large increases in IO prices because the Chinese were so active. Next thing they report is that Chinese buyers have disappeared. Can't be found/contacted anywhere. They even looked under the beds!  Also, the BDI rocketed up over the last 4 weeks or so, and when analysts pointed to this as a reason to expect increases in IO shipments (and therefore prices), hello, the BDI retreated for 3 or 4 days. Even the shipping companies were perplexed by this about face. However, it has increased again over the last 4 days. The BDI has increased from approx. 860 points on 19/01/09 to approx. 2100 points on 20/02/09 (240%!!! - I have been graphing it.). Someone intends to ship a lot of drybulk! (and the domestic Chinese wheat supply is being touted as healthy - so it's not wheat!)


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## snopandsnap (24 February 2009)

Carbon Steel and othe Bag Holders,

You can bag me all you like but the stock is down 30% in the last couple of weeks. FMG up around 80% and BRM up over 10% from my first post.

CUS up over 30% as well as AGO. All of my stocks are up including CBA at 25,
BHP and RIO.

My first post, i said that you will be able to buy at 7 cents in a couple of weeks, but i suppose that i am the idiot????

You will see 7 by the end of the week, maybe tomorrow.

Carbon, if you try and compare SDL to BRM, you are just mad. BRM has 102 million dollars in cash, ZERO debt, existing rail network a few kms away and a new port facility. More than 1.3 billion tonnes of quality iron ore and a market cap of just 135 million.

SDL has a 400K piece of land, no rail, no port and hundreds of kms from the ocean. Not to mention Africia, no funding and no chance of funding. Stock at 8cents and only going lower. 

If you think that this mine is going ahead, you need to pull your head out of your butttt. I would calculate that you have more chance winning the lotto.

I was just trying to warn you inexperienced investors about getting into this stock and holding the bag. See you at 7cents this week, maybe even .6.5cents. Good luck all!


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## snopandsnap (24 February 2009)

Hey Carbon,

keep doing you TA on this stock. I am sure it will help

Talk the other traders into holding the bad with you.


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## The Muffin Man (24 February 2009)

When the All Ords keeps dropping you can expect speculative stocks to go lower with it. I still can't find a point in the last few weeks from where SDL has apparently fallen 30%. Take a look at the SDL graph against the All Ords graph and there is your reason for SDL tracking slightly lower.

Atlas is producing, Fortescue is producing and in the midst of some serious equity discussions. They aren't comparable situations at the moment. Those invested in SDL are taking a greater risk, but the upside is much higher also.


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## snopandsnap (24 February 2009)

Muffin Man,

My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.

At that time FMG was 1.82 now 2.82 (as high as 3.40)
At that time BRM was .90 now 1.01 (sold at 1.08 and got back in at .99)

Many other small iron explorers and exporters have done well or held steady since then but not SDL. It just keeps going lower and will keep going lower.

I cannot understand anyone who thinks that this SDL will be mining iron ore with the next 10 years. I will eat my hat if that happens. Even, very good, cash flow positive, low debt, long standing large caps are having trouble getting JV, captial raising, rolling debt ect.. so SDL does not stand a chance.

Anyone can say that because the All Ords is going down, all spec stocks are taking a beating, but that is not true my friend.

I think that most people who own this stock just like the fact that they own
tens of thousands of shares which will become basically worthless IMO.

I having been getting bagged on this board for telling the truth and predicting the movements.

CUS is a Spec stock and has gone up nearly everyday for weeks. So have many others.


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## jonojpsg (24 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Muffin Man,
> 
> My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
> Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.
> ...




Hmm, let's see your list of specs that have gone up nearly every day for weeks please   I still am not sure why you think that all those issues, Africa, distance, etc are certain indicators of doom?  As shown previously, even with the costs involved, the operation is most definitely a profitable one.  I can't see why SDL should not be able to find a steel maker to agree to take their ore?  I can't see why the Cam gov't would not pitch in their cash to take up their full share in a project that will provide around 8% boost to their GDP?  Can you imagine ANY gov't who wouldn't??  What would KRudd do with a company who had a project in the middle of the outback that was worth 80 billion a year to Oz?

Just my 

Of course I hold so according to you my arguments can simply be disregarded as I am blindly hoping that SDL won't go under


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## The Muffin Man (25 February 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Muffin Man,
> 
> My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
> Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.
> ...




OK, I've got SDL closing on that date at 10 cents, which would be around a 20% fall. But if you look 2 weeks before that, the stock was at 8 cents. If you look 2 weeks after that, the stock was at 8.6 cents. The stock is, and has been, trading in it's current range for a good 3 months now, so there has really been no huge fall as you have said. As I said, SDL has been tracking the broader market somewhat. It's a high risk investment, it's a speculative investment, so expect the stock price to fluctuate more than others. That's investment 101 and as an investment banker it's something you should already know.

I'm not aware of many other mining explorers that are yet to secure capital finance for their projects that are doing extremely well. 

FMG, AGO etc are not valid comparisons as they are producers. They do not exhibit the same characteristics as the SDL stock so comparing them is rather misleading. You can't compare a producer with SDL because the companies are at different points.

I don't think you are telling people anything they don't already know about financing being the major hurdle for the project to get off the ground. But there are a number of positives for the project also. The Cameroon Government looks as though it will be buying in further (which will guarantee Governemnt co-operation and a source of 15% of the capital requirements), it's an independent iron ore source (not held by BHP, RIO etc), the costs of production will be on the lower end of the scale, the payback period of the CAPEX amounts are favorable, port infrastructure is basically sorted out, and confidential discussions with numerous interested parties have begun. Throw in that there is at least 2.4Bn tonnes of ore there (maybe more), and that the Congo site directly to the south of Mbalam also looks promising. These are the reasons people hold SDL.

There have also been numerous examples of steel companies and other industry participants willing to invest huge amounts in iron ore projects during the current economic downturn. Look through this thread for examples.

Risky - Yes. 

Potential - Massive.


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## big sal (25 February 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> Risky - Yes.
> 
> Potential - Massive.





That about sums it up for me, if SDL flops i'll work some extra overtime, but if it takes off i'll buy a boat and travel around Oz for 6 months!!


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## Zodiac (27 February 2009)

Interesting to note that Gindalbie / Sundance merge valued SDL at $1.6b (.88cents per share ) back in 2007. That is before there was a JORC on Billions of IO, before the CAM Govt Agreement, before SDL chosen as preferred Port Terminal, before CamCongo entity ensuring further Billions of IO in Congo, before the recent run on FMG / RIO by China which still sees great long term value in IO, before the Brazil's Minerios Deal late last year.

Yes the world has changed but IO Pricing may drop 30%, but it still leaves 2009 Iron Ore Prices higher than they were in 2007.

China won't be exporting for a couple of years, so what! SDL won't be producing for three years. China will want SDL up and running before the world recovers and export demand picks up. Not to mention the gang that runs China are going to pump it for a couple of years with internal stimulas. There will be another major Chinese stimulas PACKAGE announcement soon, thats why there is a run on RIO / FMG now by the Chinese.

Also, BHP have plenty of money, missed out on RIO'S IO, they could build there IO reserves significantly instead by doing a takeover of SDL and at the same time compete with VALE direct also give them access to the European Markets. You Beauty. 


Zodiac


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## CarbonSteel (27 February 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> ......worth 80 billion a year to Oz?
> 
> :




Just wondering where you got this number from jono?
80 billion per annum is quite a wad of cash!
At USD60/ton and production 50 million tons, income would be USD3billion.


----------



## CarbonSteel (27 February 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Interesting to note that Gindalbie / Sundance merge valued SDL at $1.6b (.88cents per share ) back in 2007. That is before there was a JORC on Billions of IO, before the CAM Govt Agreement, before SDL chosen as preferred Port Terminal, before CamCongo entity ensuring further Billions of IO in Congo, before the recent run on FMG / RIO by China which still sees great long term value in IO, before the Brazil's Minerios Deal late last year.
> 
> Yes the world has changed but IO Pricing may drop 30%, but it still leaves 2009 Iron Ore Prices higher than they were in 2007.
> 
> ...



 A refreshingly cool perspective in the hot desert snopandsnap wasteland:bier:! What say you snoppo:bowdown:? Isn't it good news that SDL didn't meet your price target for this week?


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## jonojpsg (28 February 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Just wondering where you got this number from jono?
> 80 billion per annum is quite a wad of cash!
> At USD60/ton and production 50 million tons, income would be USD3billion.




Nah mate, just comparing the relative worth of what an SDL equivalent would be to Oz, eg SDL would be worth 8% to Cameroon, so in Oz that would mean around 80bn.  

Just pointing out that there is NO WAY that any government would pass up the opportunity to support that size project, eg SDL will  get govt support IMO


----------



## Singapore_Sling (3 March 2009)

Hi,
SDL-Prices in Germany are down 34% and I can not find any other hint, but the overall market in the past days.

However, since there are no big news (...about JVs) ; here are some about the Kribi Port Project to feed the thread: 

http://www.crtv.cm/cont/nouvelles/n...wSection=economie&idField=2602&table=noticias


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## quinn123 (3 March 2009)

Singapore_Sling said:


> Hi,
> SDL-Prices in Germany are down 34% and I can not find any other hint, but the overall market in the past days.
> 
> However, since there are no big news (...about JVs) ; here are some about the Kribi Port Project to feed the thread:
> ...




The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest point in 12 years following a $61.7 billion quarterly loss, the biggest in American corporate history, by insurer AIG.  

SDL Down -6.41%
XAO Down -1.6%.  
DOW Down -4.24% 
02:45:50 PM Sydney Time, 3/03/2009

Looks like a good buying opportunity today, or a bad time to sell.


----------



## The Muffin Man (3 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Muffin Man,
> 
> My first post was on the 15th January and the stock was at 11 cents.
> Do the math. 11cent to 8 cents is very close to 30%.
> ...





Let's see how one can make a situation look by taking an arbitrary point in time and measuring the rise and rall of two stocks for that period:

Since February 24 (snopandsnap's last post):

SDL down 4.87%
BRM down 20.59%

So just as snopandsnap took one small period of trading and tried to use it to prove something, could we do the same?


----------



## Jewels (3 March 2009)

*Price Alert!!*​

Share price of SDL Likely to plummet over the next 10 days!
My Reason  for stating this is that I just topped up with a few more today!!!

On a more worthy note, a little more info on the port:



Kribi Ports Complex: Steering committee adopt installation plan
02/03/2009: Members of the steering committee of Kribi Deep Sea Port met last week end for their fourth session.
The meeting was chaired by the Chairman of the committee, Louis Paul Motaze. During the sitting, the new plan for the installation of the ports infrastructure was examined and adopted.

 This new plan takes account of the different changes recorded since the earlier feasibility studies on the project.

 The new traffic projection of the port for example, has prompted the re -adaptation of the building plan.

According to the new plan, the kribi port installations shall extend to some virgin sites where the environment will not be greatly affected.

These installations have been shift downwards to localities in the southern parts of kribi where the marine, topographical and environmental conditions are best to host vessels.

This 282 billion francs project shall now be made up of four terminals;

The Kribi terminal would be built for artisan fishing and leisure activities. 
The grand Batanga terminal would be specialised in tourism, industrial, fishing and other similar activities. 
The Mboro terminal would see the industrial, commercial and naval activities. 
The Lolabe terminal would be focused on the transportation of iron ore and minerals. 
The decision to have the terminals specialised in specific services, was made at the end of a round table conference organised in YaoundÃ© in May 2008 during which investors declared their intensions towards the project.

Ciao fellow SDL'ers,  J.


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## CarbonSteel (3 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Hey Carbon,
> 
> keep doing you TA on this stock. I am sure it will help
> 
> Talk the other traders into holding the bad with you.




:nosympath
Hey snoppo,

As an SDL holder, I wish to extend my sympathies re the extremely sad performance of the shares you obviously hold (FMG & BRM) and strongly recommended to us SDL holders ( what a guy!:bowdown, whilst bagging our selection.

What now Einstien?

I challenge you to espouse your prediction for SDL, at let's say July 10, 2009. If you care to grace us with your prediction, I will offer you the opportunity to make even more money by entering into a wager with you. 

Got guts snoppo?


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## Pythagerous (4 March 2009)

Does anyone have any information on how much longer SDL can hold off financially without a backer? Is it a matter of months, or could they last for up to a year?

This is where it is going to get interesting, as it is going to come to a head shortly. Whether it explodes positively depends on whether they can get a backer before they go bust.

Either way, my gut feeling is that we are going to find out one way or the other in the near future.


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## The Muffin Man (4 March 2009)

SDL had 19m in the bank at December 31 2008. In the December Qtr they spent 13m. If you use the same 13m figure for this Qtr it would leave SDL with 6m at the end of March. Throughout though, SDL has been saying expenditure will fall as they have basically stopped exploring at Mbalam. What kind of saving this will achieve is anyone's guess. 

The other thing to consider is that if the Cameroon Government takes up the extra 15% in CamIron, SDL will receive half the development costs at Mbalam to date as a cash payment. If/When this happens is also anyone's guess.

I'd certainly like to hear some news soon!


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## Pythagerous (4 March 2009)

This article is similar/same to the one listed a few posts above, however it has some extra information which is of interest.

_*Cameroon: Kribi Deep Seaport - Construction Plan to be Revised
Lukong Pius Nyuylime
2 March 2009*


This is one of the key issues discussed Last Friday in Kribi by the Steering Committee. The Kribi Deep Seaport multibillion project is readjusting in order to adapt to new circumstances. This was one of the major issues discussed last Friday in Kribi by members of the project steering committee.

Meeting in its fourth session under the chairmanship of its president, Louis Paul Motaze, Minister of the Economy, Planning and Regional Development, the committee members examined and adopted the general plan for the installation of the port infrastructure.

The main issue at hand was to continue with the plan to adapt the general plan to new dispensation. This, in effect, has to do with shifting the installations downward to localities in the southern part of Kribi where the marine, topographical and environmental conditions are best to host vessels. By this token, the Kribi Deep Seaport, henceforth referred to as the Kribi Ports Complex, will harbour four different terminals each with its specificities in terms of services and activities.

According to the Director of the Project , Louis Nlend Banack, the Kribi Ports Complex will entertain four main activities: artisan fishing and leisure activities to be concentrated at the Kribi terminal, tourism, industrial fishing and other similar activities at the Grand Batanga terminal, industrial, commercial and naval activities at Mboro and iron ore and mineral transportation at Lolabe terminal.

The decision to specialise the terminals has in effect been on the discussion table since May last year during the round table conference organised in Yaounde which equally provided occasion for investors to declare their intensions towards the project.

The readaptation exercise, as explained by the Minister of the Economy, Planning and Regional Development, stems from the changes that have taken place since the early feasibility studies were made. "Traffic projections have changed, many other factors have changed and the advisory engineer has proposed that we readapt the building plan", Minister Motaze said, stating however that this will only be confirmed by the studies to be launched soon. "Investors who are ready to build the port are agreed on these changes", he said.

The advantage of the new proposal is that it is taking the port installations to virgin sites where the activities will have negligible nefarious effects on the environment. At Mboro where the general cargo port with industrial and commercial character will be posted ship carriers of 100,000 tonnes will be received. The Lolabe terminal on its part has characteristics that will provide facilities for exportation of iron from Mbalam developed by CAMIRON. It will receive very big ship carriers of 250,000 tonnes and will need high depth of water of 22 metres minimum.

The Kribi meeting took steering committee members to the four sites during which they made an appreciation of the characteristics therein. These, as explained in the final statement of the meeting, include the possible traffic to be received by each terminal, the physical characteristics of the site (topography and maritime), optimal cost of construction, economic benefits and environmental protection.

*Estimated to cost over CFA 282 billion*, work on the first phase of the Kribi Ports Complex may still begin as earlier programmed in *December, 2009 *and the first services operational by the *end of 2013*._

It is encouraging that they may begin work on it as early as December this year with it being operational by the end of 2013, but what is CFA 282 Billion?

http://allafrica.com/stories/200903021647.html


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## jonojpsg (4 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> It is encouraging that they may begin work on it as early as December this year with it being operational by the end of 2013, but what is CFA 282 Billion?
> 
> http://allafrica.com/stories/200903021647.html




I would say Cameroon Francs?  Central African Francs actually - don't you know how to use Google  It's about A$850m.


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## Pythagerous (4 March 2009)

Yeah I do know how to use Google, altough Country Fire Authority was ranked at the top, and didnt quite make any sense. Apart from the fact that I couldnt be bothered looking at the second ranked result and below, I decided to ask the question here in order to stimulate discussion.


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## jonojpsg (4 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Yeah I do know how to use Google, altough Country Fire Authority was ranked at the top, and didnt quite make any sense. Apart from the fact that I couldnt be bothered looking at the second ranked result and below, I decided to ask the question here in order to stimulate discussion.




You live in Australia and you didn't catch on the moment you thought to put CFA into Google that you would get Country Fire Authority as your first result, given the past few weeks??!!!??!!  CFA currency gets you what you want.

While we're discussing CFA 282 billion though, if the total port costs are going to be that, I would have thought that SDL will get away with about a quarter of that (given there are four main users) or about A$220m.  What was the estimated cost that SDL had in for the port?  More than that methinks.


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## Pythagerous (4 March 2009)

US$529 Million, according to the presentation on their website.

You probably could have googled that, or visited the site yourself.


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## jonojpsg (4 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> US$529 Million, according to the presentation on their website.
> 
> You probably could have googled that, or visited the site yourself.




How did I know you were going to say that   I figured you would have all the info on hand with your newly acquired Google search skills


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## quinn123 (4 March 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> You live in Australia and you didn't catch on the moment you thought to put CFA into Google that you would get Country Fire Authority as your first result, given the past few weeks??!!!??!!  CFA currency gets you what you want.
> 
> While we're discussing CFA 282 billion though, if the total port costs are going to be that, I would have thought that SDL will get away with about a quarter of that (given there are four main users) or about A$220m.  What was the estimated cost that SDL had in for the port?  More than that methinks.




SDL's part of the terminal may be more costly, so we will have to wait and see.  

Why wasn't this news released by SDL on ASX?


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## quinn123 (4 March 2009)

Mining News
http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=1024350&sectionsource=s0

You have to be a member to view the article.


*African iron for sale*

Tuesday, _3 March 2009_

*THE iron ore market has gone from boom to gloom in the space of just a few months. But that is not stopping Sphere Investments and Sundance Resources. By Stephen Bell*

Sphere, in Mauritania, and Sundance, in Cameroon, last year held separate auctions for stakes in their respective ventures. After receiving strong interest from global steel mills and miners, both were confident of finalising deals in the first half of 2009.

If concluded, the asset sales will enhance west Africa’s chances of becoming a major iron ore supplier next decade. That is in spite of sovereign risk concerns and a chronic lack of infrastructure.

The interest in Sundance and Sphere shows that steel mills are prepared to venture further afield for new sources of feed, beyond the big three global exporters: Brazil’s Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

Until recently, Western investors assumed Rio would lead the west African charge next decade, via its giant Simandou project in Guinea.

However, Rio has scaled back the venture as part of a series of cost-saving measures.

The project has already been hit by a prolonged dispute between Rio and the Guinean government over fiscal terms. Most recently the government announced that Rio could have only half its concession.

Rio’s frustrating dealings in Guinea show that frontier Africa is not for the faint-hearted. Negotiating a rock-solid royalty arrangement is just one hurdle to be crossed, as is the lack of roads, rail and political stability. Mauritania, for instance, has a track record of military coups, although it does boast a working iron ore port.

Despite the region’s shortcomings, Sphere and Sundance believe west Africa’s large, untapped resources will feature prominently in the next iron ore boom.

The Chinese recognised this a few years ago when they agreed to spend up to $US3 billion developing an iron ore project in Gabon (which shares a border with Cameroon). Steel giant ArcelorMittal, meanwhile, has invested $US1.5 billion in Liberia, with the first iron ore production due in 2009.

There is no doubt China Inc. and the big steel mills are serious about the region. However, the market downturn and frozen credit markets has made it hard for the juniors.

Particularly so in the case of Sphere and Sundance, which are trying to regain traction after previous deals fell over during the recent boom. Sundance scrapped a merger with Gindalbie Metals in October 2007. Sphere confirmed in August that Qatar Steel had pulled out of a proposed part-purchase of Guelb el Aouj.

Despite the downturn, several Chinese steel mills struck deals in late 2008 to buy significant stakes in Australian iron ore miners, namely Mount Gibson Iron, Grange Resources and Gindalbie.

In December Sundance was also in deal-making mode, holding talks with a “number of major industry groups” interested in joining its Mbalam project in Cameroon. Sundance chief executive officer Don Lewis said the spread included major mining houses, steel mills and trading companies.

“These are not solely from China, though China is interested,” he said.

About 10 groups interested in offtake, equity and financing deals had visited the project data room. The company hoped to form a shortlist by Christmas and announce the successful partner in the new year.

Lewis conceded Sundance faced a much tougher market than 12 months ago, when people were not as concerned about high capital costs and infrastructure constraints.

“Everyone knows that 2009 is going to be tough,” he said.

“The majors are obviously cutting back and curtailing production. But for a project like ours, which won’t even go into construction until late 2009 or early 2010, they [potential partners] are looking five to 10 years down the track to secure opportunities.”

It also is no secret that prices of mines and projects have come down.

“It is evident that asset values in the resources sector are significantly less than they were a year ago, and that creates opportunities for deals,” Lewis said.

At the company’s annual meeting in November, Lewis and Sundance chairman George Jones flagged an increase in Mbalam’s proposed maximum production rate to 50 million tonnes per annum. That is up from 35Mtpa previously. The increase aims to best utilise Mbalam’s 2.45 billion tonne resource, mostly itabirite overlain by a higher-grade haematite cap.

“We’ve only drilled one deposit, which equates to 10 square kilometres out of a 3700 square kilometre land base,” Lewis said.

“Clearly there will be growth in resources and this project can operate for many years at large scale.”

The magnetite-grade ore – itabirite – is very similar to those mined extensively in Brazil.

“It is not direct shipping, but it has good feed grade and recovery characteristics,” Lewis said.


The previous cost estimate for Sundance’s 35Mpta project was $US3.3 billion, including a 485km rail network to the coast. Lewis does not expect a major increase by moving to the higher throughput.

Sundance, like every other mining company at present, is trying to husband its cash, which totalled $33 million at September 30. Just before Christmas, it announced the first stage of resource drilling at Mbalam had been completed.

In light of current market conditions, the company’s board scaled back drilling activities. “This will significantly reduce expenditure over coming months as the company moves to preserve cash during this current period of financial uncertainty,” Lewis said.

He said attention would focus on completing the project financing and marketing discussions with potential strategic partners.


----------



## The Muffin Man (5 March 2009)

Surely if you have "about 10" interested parties, at least a few of them would be seriously interested. 

Those at Sundance come across as very confident that there is a large amount of genuine interest for this project to go ahead. I liked Lewis saying that there will clearly be upgrades in resources when exploration allows also. It gives prospective investors that extra enticement, knowing that there are more resources to be discovered.

I wonder how much cash is in the bank, and I wonder how far off any possible agreements with the Cameroon Government and strategic partners are. I'm looking forward to March 31 and the cash flow reports that will come.


----------



## CarbonSteel (5 March 2009)

quinn123 said:


> Sundance, like every other mining company at present, is trying to husband its cash, which totalled $33 million at September 30. Just before Christmas, it announced the first stage of resource drilling at Mbalam had been completed.




How old is this article really? SDL announced cash reserves of $19M as at the end of December. The figure quoted here is last September???

Is this really an update, or is it just a cleverly disguised "backdate" that made a coupla bucks for the journo?

Doesn't seem to be anything new in this "paid for" info. No offence intended to the poster, just the website providing this so-called "news".

I would like to know alleged date that Lewis made the comments attributed to him in this article.


----------



## quinn123 (5 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> How old is this article really? SDL announced cash reserves of $19M as at the end of December. The figure quoted here is last September???
> 
> Is this really an update, or is it just a cleverly disguised "backdate" that made a coupla bucks for the journo?
> 
> ...




No offence taken, I just googled the article. It was dated Tuesday, 3 March '09, so I thought I would post it. But you are right, there is nothing new about Sundance in the article.


----------



## Pythagerous (10 March 2009)

This came out today. Not related directly to SDL, however may be of interest.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/March2009/09/c7130.html

*African Aura to drill Nkout iron ore prospect in Cameroon *


    TORONTO, March 9 /CNW/ - African Aura Resources Ltd. ("African Aura" or
the "Company", TSX-V: AAZ) an exploration company with gold, iron ore and
uranium exploration activities in Cameroon and Liberia, announces plans to
undertake a reconnaissance diamond drilling programme on a 3km long section of
the 10km long Nkout iron ore prospect in Southern Cameroon.

    -   10km long magnetic dipole at Nkout coincides with topographic high
    -   Drilling to test initial 3km long zone grading up to 65% Fe at
        surface
    -   Up to ten reconnaissance holes planned to commence in May 2009
    -   In house drilling equipment and drill team to be mobilised to site
    >>

    The Company is mobilising one of its two in-country diamond drilling rigs
to the Nkout prospect to commence reconnaissance diamond drilling in May with
an initial programme of up to ten holes, each drilled to 100m depth. Collars
will be located approximately 250m apart along a 3km long section of the Nkout
prospect where a previous programme of grab sampling at surface yielded an
average grade of 54% Fe.

    John Gray, President & CEO commented:

    "The results from geological mapping and initial surface sampling of a
3km long section of the 10km long Nkout iron ore prospect were highly
encouraging, with grades up to 65% iron and an average of 54% iron. African
Aura has the flexibility and opportunity to accelerate its iron exploration
programme with reconnaissance drill testing using its in-house diamond drills.
The Nkout prospect is strategically located between the Mbalam iron deposit
located 150km to the south east, and the site of a proposed deep water port at
Kribi on the Atlantic coast, and situated close to existing infrastructure in
a significant iron ore province. We look forward to updating shareholders with
the results from this programme in due course"

*About the Nkout iron prospect, Southern Cameroon*

    The Nkout iron prospect is located on the 1,000km(2) Djoum licence which
is held by the Company's 100% owned subsidiary Caminex SARL. The prospect was
identified by interpretation of historic airborne magnetic and remote sensing
data and is defined by a 10km long discontinuous ridge, coincident with a
magnetic dipole hosted by Archaean-age rocks. The Company considers that the
dimensions of Nkout and surrounding hills represent a potentially economic
iron deposit. Nkout is also strategically well located in the sub-region which
hosts a number of significant iron deposits. Of those that are under
exploration and development, the closest is the Mbalam deposit being developed
by Sundance Resources Limited, located approximately 150km to the south east.
    As previously announced, in 2008 the Company collected 44 reconnaissance
samples from a 3km by 3.75km area on the eastern section of the Nkout ridge,
which returned a maximum grade of 65% iron, and an average grade of 54% iron.
X-ray diffraction and optical microscopy show that the samples comprise mainly
high grade haematite along with magnetite and goethite.

*About African Aura*
    African Aura has a 'first-mover' exploration strategy, focused on the
discovery of economic gold, iron and uranium deposits in sub-Saharan Africa.
The Company has a Joint Venture with Severstal Resources for the exploration
and development of Iron Ore in Cameroon and has established a significant
portfolio of gold properties within Archaean greenstone and Proterozoic
volcano-sedimentary belts, including its flagship Batouri gold project in
Cameroon, where a maiden gold resource is anticipated in 2009. African Aura
trades on the TSX-V under the symbol AAZ. More information can be found on
line at www.african-aura.com or by email at: info@african-aura.com

*Oversight*
    The exploration results announced in this release have been reviewed and
approved by Mark Biddulph. He holds a BSc Hons in Geology, and GIS from Rhodes
University, and a GDE in Mining Engineering (Mineral Economics) from the
University of Witwatersrand in South Africa. Mark is a Professional Natural
Scientist under the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions
(SACNASP) and a Qualified Person under National Instrument 43-101.

*  Forward-Looking Statements*
    This press release includes certain Forward-Looking Statements. All
statements, other than statements of historical fact, included herein,
including without limitation, statements regarding potential mineralisation
and reserves, exploration results and future plans and objectives of African
Aura, are forward-looking statements that involve various known and unknown
risks and uncertainties as well as other factors. There can be no assurance
that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future
events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. The
Company has no obligation to update or modify such forward-looking statements,
either as a result of new information, future events or for any other reason,
and we expressly deny any such obligation in relation thereto. Important
factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from African
Aura's expectations are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" and
elsewhere in African Aura's reports and other documents filed from
time-to-time with the TSX Venture Exchange and other regulatory authorities in
Canada.
    The securities described herein have not been and will not be registered
under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities
laws of any state and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent
an exemption from registration.
    For more information concerning the reports, or to obtain additional
information on the Company, please visit our website at: www.african-aura.com
and SEDAR's website at: www.sedar.com or contact the Company directly.


----------



## The Muffin Man (10 March 2009)

Ok, a Share Placement and Share Purchase Plan have just been announced on the ASX. 

The Share Placement is to the Talbot Group for $5m, and the Share Purchase Plan will be open to the public and is aiming to raise $5m. The price is 8c per share.

The aim is to secure cash reserves. Thoughts?


----------



## spottygoose (10 March 2009)

Shows Talbot still has the faith... I think it is a positive thing better than a straight SPP in the 7c's. Hopefully we will get some more news to ensure it is a success.


----------



## Pythagerous (10 March 2009)

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=3&ContentID=129262

*Talbot to up stake in Sundance through placement*

10th March 2009, 13:00 WST 


West Africa focused iron ore explorer Sundance Resources says it plans to raise $10 million in a placement to its biggest shareholder Talbot Group and a further $10 million in a share purchase plan to shareholders.

Talbot, a Queensland-based resource investment company owned by businessman Ken Talbot, is already the company’s biggest shareholder with Mr Talbot filling a position on the Sundance’s board as a non executive director.

Sundance will seek shareholder approval for the placement, which will take Mr Talbot’s stake in the company to 22.14 per cent.

The company said it would also offer shareholders the chance to buy $5000 worth of new shares at eight cents a share to raise an expected $10 million.

BBY will underwrite the capital raising to the value of $5 million.

The company said the funds raised would strengthen its financial position and underpin continued development at its Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon to 2010.

Sundance needs about $5 billion to finance the development of Mbalam.

Sundance chief executive Don Lewis said the funding would allow the company time to develop arrangements with potential partners and ensure it was positioned to advance the project when global financial conditions improved.

Sundance shares were down 0.1 cents to 7.9 cents at 12.45pm.

The company’s shares traded higher than 50 cents less than a year ago when iron ore prices were soaring.


----------



## snopandsnap (11 March 2009)

Hey Carbon,

Still holding the bag mate? 
The market up today and SDL down another 7%. Great stock this one. So,
how much are you down. 70 or 80%, maybe even more?
Mate, you need a new day job. McDonalds are starting to hire junior burger flippers.
What a joke! 10 million capital raising at 8 cents. SDL will have about 5 billion shares outstanding in the next few months. 10 million may be enough for a few lunches for the board. Bag me all you like but you only have to look at my posts to see that you are a fool and i am correct.
As for my 1st June prediction. I think you will see around 5.5 cents by then.
Blind freedy can see that this mine will never go ahead. Not in our life time anyway.
Keep up the good work.


----------



## snopandsnap (11 March 2009)

"The company said it would also offer shareholders the chance to buy $5000 worth of new shares at eight cents a share to raise an expected $10 million.

BBY will underwrite the capital raising to the value of $5 million.

The company said the funds raised would strengthen its financial position and underpin continued development at its Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon to 2010.

Sundance needs about $5 billion to finance the development of Mbalam"

.....The company will offer shareholders the chance to buy $5000 worth of shares. That makes me crack up big time. How many fools would by 5k worth of this rubbish at 8 cents. You can pick them up tomorrow for 7 cents.
Carbon, you buying 5k mate?
....."Sundance needs $5 billion to finance the development".
They would be lucky to raise $10 million. $5 BILLIONNNNNNNN makes me laugh. RIO would have a hard to raising this amount, let alone a micro cap that paid 240K for the land. You must be a dreamer dude. Let me know what you are smoking because i want some.

Why would a steel mills put up 3 to 5 billion to develop this when they can do it in Australia for one tenth of the price.


----------



## hangseng (11 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> _"Blind freedy can see that this mine will never go ahead. Not in our life time anyway."_




How many times have we heard that over the years. FMG was one that people said would "never go ahead", PDN was another.

I have followed this mans interests for a while and in particular his interest in SDL http://www.talbotgh.com.au/

I will make a prediction that you can hold me to anytime you like. This mine WILL go ahead and it will be a world class Fe asset. Without drilling the other locations it is already shaping up to be just that. SDL has more going on as well of that I am now sure and Talbot alludes to it on his website as does SDL. I am sure we will here of this in good time. I am a very patient man and it will be required for SDL, but I am confident this will not only go ahead it will be an excellent long term investment for me.

Never say never  and 5.5 cents you say? I really hope you are right.

Now go for it, I have my armour on and in any case I feel no pain after this last year


----------



## springhill (11 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Hey Carbon,
> 
> Still holding the bag mate?
> The market up today and SDL down another 7%. Great stock this one. So,
> ...




Mate why dont you do us all a favour and put up or shutup and p!ss off. You could start by disclosing what you're holding and how much you are up/down on each.... then we will all see what an "oracle" you really are. This is a supportive forum designed to help and inform, not for nameless tossers like you to snipe from a distance. If Carbon is down 80%, big deal, its his hard earned
Looking forward to hearing from you or seeing the back of you


----------



## Piggy Bank (11 March 2009)

springhill said:


> Mate why dont you do us all a favour and put up or shutup and p!ss off. You could start by disclosing what you're holding and how much you are up/down on each.... then we will all see what an "oracle" you really are. This is a supportive forum designed to help and inform, not for nameless tossers like you to snipe from a distance. If Carbon is down 80%, big deal, its his hard earned
> Looking forward to hearing from you or seeing the back of you




Hey springhill!  You must be able to read my mind???  Scary! It was exactly what I'm thinking!  C'mon, tell me...what am I thinking now?  :

snopandsnap - please start your own thread that other's can join if they wish to bag stocks and attempt to rubbish fellow forum members.  The SDL thread does not serve your daily purpose.


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## CarbonSteel (11 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Hey Carbon,
> 
> Still holding the bag mate?
> The market up today and SDL down another 7%. Great stock this one. So,
> ...




Hey Snoppo my friend. I am prepared to wager $AUD1000 that SDL shares will be trading at $AUD0.060 or better on June 1st, 2009. As your well researched prediction is $AUD0.055, you are probably quite safe and have nothing to lose. Certainly, your rhetoric gives me that impression. Got guts Snoppo? I am also prepared to wager $AUD10,000 that there will be no more than 3 billion SDL shares issued one year from now, being 11 March 2010. Again, put your money where your mouth is old boy. Obviously I am a fool and will soon be parted from my money by you, because you are super confident about your own advice as an investment banker, so don't delay old boy. Got balls Snoppo?:kiffer:
Almost forgot! Don't forget to use the spellcheck, and try to post sober! - it will save you some embarrasment. People are beginning to think you were flipping burgers (your favourite - MacDonalds -  of course) instead of going to Uni.
Lets see here now....... 50 Mtpa x $44/tonne = $2,200,000,000........wait a minute...... isn't that $2.2 BILLION pa?


----------



## snopandsnap (11 March 2009)

Springhill... see my last post on 24th February below.
I am happy to tell you my holdings. I am in the green on every single one of them.

Piggy... unlike some, i only check the boards every couple of weeks and i do not bag people. Carbon has been bagging me since my first post because i said SDL will be going to 7 cents which is exactly what happened. Since then, i have made over a 100% gain in FMG, steady with BRM (with very little risk) and have made trading profits on AGO as well. All the IO plays are going very well, only SDL going to all time lows as i predicted. If you only want to have posters that pump up the stock then fine, good luck to you.

I am just trying to tell new investors that all is not rosey with SDL and the chances of this stock going to Zero are huge. 

24th February 2009..Carbon Steel and othe Bag Holders,

You can bag me all you like but the stock is down 30% (40% now) in the last couple of weeks. FMG up around 80% and BRM up over 10% from my first post.

CUS up over 30% as well as AGO. All of my stocks are up including CBA at 25,
BHP and RIO.

My first post, i said that you will be able to buy at 7 cents in a couple of weeks, but i suppose that i am the idiot????

You will see 7 by the end of the week, maybe tomorrow.

Carbon, if you try and compare SDL to BRM, you are just mad. BRM has 102 million dollars in cash, ZERO debt, existing rail network a few kms away and a new port facility. More than 1.3 billion tonnes of quality iron ore and a market cap of just 135 million.

SDL has a 400K piece of land, no rail, no port and hundreds of kms from the ocean. Not to mention Africia, no funding and no chance of funding. Stock at 8cents and only going lower. 

If you think that this mine is going ahead, you need to pull your head out of your butttt. I would calculate that you have more chance winning the lotto.

I was just trying to warn you inexperienced investors about getting into this stock and holding the bag. See you at 7cents this week, maybe even .6.5cents. Good luck all!


----------



## springhill (11 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Springhill... see my last post on 24th February below.
> I am happy to tell you my holdings. I am in the green on every single one of them.
> 
> Piggy... unlike some, i only check the boards every couple of weeks and i do not bag people. Carbon has been bagging me since my first post because i said SDL will be going to 7 cents which is exactly what happened. Since then, i have made over a 100% gain in FMG, steady with BRM (with very little risk) and have made trading profits on AGO as well. All the IO plays are going very well, only SDL going to all time lows as i predicted. If you only want to have posters that pump up the stock then fine, good luck to you.
> ...




Congratulations snoppy thats a fine effort, perhaps you'd consider starting your own blog on here, and we could learn from your efforts and reasoning behind them in a constructive manner instead of telling members to "pull your head out of your butttt"?


----------



## snopandsnap (11 March 2009)

Hey Carbon,

You wouldnt have $1000 to bet. I thought you said we would never see 7 cents just a few weeks ago and that SDL only traded up with the SJO.
Well, the market is up today including every single one of my stocks. 
SDL down another 7%. Excellent pick mate.

Can you give me another one of your top picks so i can have a laugh.

Good luck and see you all again in another couple of weeks. SDL will be between 6 and 7 by then. As for your 2.5 billion revenue. Oh please.
How many other miners in W.A. have 1 billion tonnes of IO just sitting in the ground.

Brockman have 1.6 billion so far just a few kms from existing train lines.
Market cap of 130 million with 100 million CASH. That means the market value for them minus cash is 30 million. 
You are taking about raising 3 to 5 BILLION for land 480 km from a port and rail that does not even exist. Never mind that the land borders three African nations. Please, please, you are honestly dreaming dude.

P.S. i have typos because i type around 80 wpm and english is not my first language.


----------



## hangseng (11 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> no funding and no chance of funding




Really????

Care to share how you know that? I would truly like to hear why the certainty in your statement.


----------



## Joe Blow (11 March 2009)

Just a reminder to all that statements like "you need to pull your head out of your butt" are really not appropriate. Feel free to disagree with others, but please try and do it without being imflammatory or insulting.

Also, I want to be clear that I have no problem with bullish or bearish views as long as you are prepared to support your argument with some facts and figures. This supporting material is what separates a genuine bullish or bearish view from a ramp or downramp.


----------



## CarbonSteel (13 March 2009)

snopandsnap said:


> Hey Carbon,
> 
> You wouldnt have $1000 to bet. I thought you said we would never see 7 cents just a few weeks ago and that SDL only traded up with the SJO.
> Well, the market is up today including every single one of my stocks.
> ...




...and respect and courtesy are not your first considerations.

Hey Snoppo, can you direct me to the post in which I allegedly claimed that SDL would never be at 7 cents. I've looked and looked and looked, my friend, and for the life of me, I cannot find it.

Actually I do have plenty of money to bet, but alas, I note that you refuse to accept any wager to back your own claims. No guts, I guess!

As an aside, I am down 13.09% on SDL, having bought at a dollar cost average of $0.085 between December and the present. The lowest price at which I bought was $0.073 on 15/12/08. 

What made you assert that I was 80% down?

I must confess that I am very impressed by your ability to type 80 wpm, it's quite an achievement for you obviously, because you feel the need to tell people who have absolutely no interest whatsoever.

At the end of the day, these are rhetorical questions and comments that I do not need a response to. The truth is that I have really tired of your attitude and you are no fun anymore. 

I cannot bring myself to trust your investment advice, because I seriously doubt that you are as wealthy as Ken Talbot who has made many good investment decisions, the most recent (and quite sizeable) endorsement of SDL at a time when you are advising that SDL will suffer a slow death.

До свидания, идиот.

Can you give us some more examples of not bagging people, besides these ones.....and the opening quote above....



> If you think that this mine is going ahead, you need to pull your head out of your butttt. I would calculate that you have more chance winning the lotto.
> 
> I was just trying to warn you inexperienced investors about getting into this stock and holding the bag.




I also don't understand why you come to our forum, if you don't hold SDL and bag it constantly without fail.

Maybe you would be happier somewhere else, I know I would be happier if you were somewhere else! I don't need to continuously scroll past your rubbish to read what SUPPORTERS are saying.


----------



## CarbonSteel (14 March 2009)

> China has offered Rio Tinto an unlimited line of credit, potentially worth more than $30 billion, to develop major mining projects in Australia, China and around the world.
> 
> The Weekend Australian says the offer from the state-owned Export-Import Bank of China, or Exim Bank, will help Rio Tinto expand at a time when frozen debt and capital markets have starved the mining industry of funds.
> 
> ...




Source: The Sydney Morning Herald - 14/03/09

What do you think, fellow SDL holders? Implications for our pick?:bier:?

From the Half Yearly Report...


> A Framework Agreement was executed between Cam Iron SA, represented by the Chairman of Sundance, and the Government of Cameroon, represented by the Prime Minister on 18 December 2008.
> 
> .......Mbalam Convention to be executed when the Project feasibility study has been completed.




As I understand it, the Feasibility Study completion is a precursor to the Mbalam Convention, after which the Cameroon Govt. will buy its' stake in the project. I cannot see a schedule for the completion of the Feasibility Study, but in any case, it must be completed, the Mbalam Convention ratified and then the purchase will be effected.

Bottom line... it is a while away.:nosympath


----------



## CarbonSteel (15 March 2009)

We have had a SDL poster (praise be to the wisest one:bowdown telling us that African projects have a huge risk of failure and that mining companies must be "in the back pocket of the government". Apparently, Rio Tinto, (the worlds third largest mining company) unaware that such good advice is freely available right here in this forum, has not heeded the advice of this poster....

dated Feb 13/09......

http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNewsIndustryMaterialsAndUtilities/idUSTRE51C5GY20090213


----------



## Sean K (15 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Apparently, Rio Tinto, (the worlds third largest mining company) unaware that such good advice is freely available right here in this forum, has not heeded the advice of this poster....
> 
> dated Feb 13/09......
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNewsIndustryMaterialsAndUtilities/idUSTRE51C5GY20090213



Well, depends which part of the article you want to read really.



> In December, Rio Tinto said it would *slow the pace of production at its La Granja copper project in Peru. *The company aslo said earlier this year that it had all but *halted its expansion of the Kitimat aluminum smelter in British Columbia.*
> 
> After further cuts, Rio Tinto announced on January 20 that it would *shed 1,100 jobs, cut a further six percent of aluminum output *and scale back alumina production.
> 
> ...




Not sure what the Cameroon numbers really mean. Is it still growing on target?

Doesn't read all that bright and shiny for developing projects to me.

Major slow down globally. Hope SDL's remains on track for you.


----------



## jman2007 (15 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> We have had a SDL poster (praise be to the wisest one:bowdown telling us that African projects have a huge risk of failure and that mining companies must be "in the back pocket of the government". Apparently, Rio Tinto, (the worlds third largest mining company) unaware that such good advice is freely available right here in this forum, has not heeded the advice of this poster....
> 
> dated Feb 13/09......
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNewsIndustryMaterialsAndUtilities/idUSTRE51C5GY20090213




While I do appreciate your enthusiasm Carbon, perhaps we should try to compare apples with apples here.

Don't underestimate the power of the big 'super-miners' to bully and cajole their way into getting their own way, and dare I say it, to pay off the right people. I'm certainly no expert in the intricacies of Cameroon Mining law and legislation - but certainly there is an element of country risk here.

SDL in comparison, is just a little cork riding the waves and being carried along by the current. On the other hand, you would think that the Cameroon Govt would be more open to developing the project given the somewhat dire economic figures quoted.

jman


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## The Muffin Man (16 March 2009)

I'm not sure that cutting the Cameroon growth rate to 4% from 6% is a 'somewhat dire' economic statistic when you take into consideration the current economic climate around the World. A 4% growth rate is still quite encouraging I would have thought. Any project that can contribute a gross 8% of GDP towards a country would surely be at the top of the list to support as far as developments go.

I personally believe that the main risk for SDL now has become cash reserves. The share announcement last week has helped alleviate those pressures, but for how long I'm unsure. I'm trying to read into the situation based somewhat on how large (or in fact small) the share placement was.

Consider that the placement will raise $10m. In recent past, SDL has gone through around $10m-$12m per quarter, but that is expected to come down due to drilling and exploration at Mbalam being finished. From memory, SDL had $19m in cash at 31 December 2008. What I'm reading into the share offer is that it is a solution to possibly fill a cash shortfall in the short term. The $10m raised could sustain the business for probably a quarter, maybe a little longer. If the SDL board believed that more money would be needed beyond the $10m (or in other words, 3 to 4 months of operations) surely they would have made the share offer larger?

What I'm hoping is that this share issue is a safeguard to make sure there are enough cash reserves while SDL works on all of the necessary agreements with the Cameroon Government, which upon their completion the Cameroon Government will buy into the project further (and thus inject further cash into the company)

It's hard to try and analysis this when you have to make so many assumptions, or apply your thinking to what's happening and the possible reasons behind it, but they are my thoughts. Anyone else have a take?

I'm still extremely confident in the basis of the project, given all of the facts that have been listed in the thread before. For me, the major issue is ensuring SDL has the cash reserves in hand to continue operating until the Cameroon Government makes it's decision on buying further into the Mbalam project. Raising just $10m signifies to me that SDL is confident this will happen in the not too distant future, or else they would have tried to make the share offer larger.


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## big sal (16 March 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> Raising just $10m signifies to me that SDL is confident this will happen in the not too distant future, or else they would have tried to make the share offer larger.




Agree on the amount being raised and the reasons for it. suggests they need a little longer with contract discussions etc before making an announcement to the market.


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## jman2007 (16 March 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> I'm not sure that cutting the Cameroon growth rate to 4% from 6% is a 'somewhat dire' economic statistic when you take into consideration the current economic climate around the World. A 4% growth rate is still quite encouraging I would have thought. Any project that can contribute a gross 8% of GDP towards a country would surely be at the top of the list to support as far as developments go.




Mmmm yes, point taken

If the figures can be trusted, 4% growth shouldn't be sneezed at, and any entity that could potentially contribute 8% to a country's GDP is pretty mind blowing. Me thinks this is still definitely one to go long on.

jman


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## CarbonSteel (16 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Well, depends which part of the article you want to read really.
> Not sure what the Cameroon numbers really mean. Is it still growing on target?
> 
> Doesn't read all that bright and shiny for developing projects to me.
> ...




Greetings kennas,

The point I was trying to make is that companies are already mining, proposing expansion and investment, and adding value in this African country, so it is not beyond the realms of imagination that SDL's project could ultimately follow suit. (The poster I referred to made it sound as though this is a hugely unlikely outcome for SDL - I do not agree with that view) Not only is it a very real possibility, but it must be a very attractive proposition for the Cameroon Government. Why would they ruin an opportunity to have a new venturer provide 8% of their GDP? 

While the projected income was scoffed at by the same poster, he failed to provide an insight into what was wrong with the figures. (35 Mtpa x $US44pt = $US1.54Bpa) or the example based on SDL's claims for initial production (50.Mtpa x $US44pt = $US2.22Bpa). I would have thought that even a $3-4B CAPEX becomes relatively insignificant to a producer who wants a long term supply  (> 20 yrs) of quality product, (at a guaranteed price) which they can ensure for themselves by getting involved in offtake/finance agreements now. This GFC will end one day I'm sure.

Possibly it has no meaning whatsoever, but it is difficult for me to believe that an "insider" like Ken Talbot, would throw good money after bad. He is  probably better informed than most of us and has made a decision to increase his stake and exposure. Why would he do that?


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## prawn_86 (16 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Possibly it has no meaning whatsoever, but it is difficult for me to believe that an "insider" like Ken Talbot, would throw good money after bad. He is  probably better informed than most of us and has made a decision to increase his stake and exposure. Why would he do that?




People said the same about Micheal Keirnan, and look how well that went for them...

Point is, even rich people within the industry can make mistakes.

In fact Talbot was one of the Rich200 who lost the most recently due to his exposure to speccies....


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## The Muffin Man (17 March 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> If you look at the June 2008 Financial Report, you can see under the Non Current Assets section of the Balance Sheet the line item 'Exploration and Evaluation Assets' with a balance of around $64.37m.
> 
> From what I can gather, Sundance is capitalising their exploration and evaluation costs into this asset account. If you follow down to the corresponding note (note 14), it breaks up this $64.37m balance into the Mbalam Iron Ore Project and the Congo Iron Ore Project. Mbalam currently holds $64.27m of that balance.
> 
> ...




After sitting down and going through the report, we can see that the Mbalam Exploration and Evaluation Assets Account held $97m in it at December 31. My estimate was a little way off, but the variance is in SDL's favour. I'm interested to know if this account is what will be used to determine what the Cameroon Government will pay for the extra 15% of CamIron.

I can understand that there are still quite a few things that could derail the Mbalam Convention, but there are encouraging signs. Why would the Cameroon Government nominate CamIron as the preferred developer of the Iron Ore section of it's multi billion dollar Kribi Port development if the Government had drastic concerns about the detail of the Convention?

Under the Potential Strategic Partners heading is some information I think we all knew. The Global Financial Crisis is effecting the process of introducing strategic partners to the process. The capital raising recently announced will ensure that SDL has the operating funds to see it through to 2010, which is an assuring statement. Hopefully by this stage, or earlier, there has been some improvement in World economic conditions.

I have a feeling SDL may be a little quite for a few months. Would the Cameroon Government sign the Mbalam Convention and buy into the project further before SDL can secure strategic partners / off-take agreements? I'm not so sure. Hopefully the company is being nice and tight with cash reserves so it doesn't experience any financial pressures in the near future.


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## CarbonSteel (18 March 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> People said the same about Micheal Keirnan, and look how well that went for them...
> 
> Point is, even rich people within the industry can make mistakes.
> 
> In fact Talbot was one of the Rich200 who lost the most recently due to his exposure to speccies....




But how did they get to be rich people in the first place? Warren Buffet is also hurting. Is he now not worth following? Is his advice now worthless? You only lose money if you sell, although your net worth can be trimmed by stock declines. Did Talbot sell? 

My point is that at a time when everybody is being very cautious and selective about their investments, Talbot (an SDL insider) has decided that SDL shares are a good investment at 8 cents.


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## Sean K (18 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> You only lose money if you sell,



Not necessarily. I've had two companies that were very undervalued by the market, which I had a lot of faith in, and had some great investors and large banks on the register, that went belly up. My return? Nada. A nice capital loss was my return. There's been a few of those recently actually.


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## Pythagerous (18 March 2009)

Anyone know anything about African Aura Resources Ltd increasing its targets on the Nkout Iron Ore prospect?

I read that it is strategically positioned 150kms south of the Mbalam Project.

Do people see this as a good thing, as it will help with getting costs and demand for a rail and a port? Or is it a bad thing, as it is going to increase competition and potential investors could be taken away from SDL?


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## CarbonSteel (18 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Not necessarily. I've had two companies that were very undervalued by the market, which I had a lot of faith in, and had some great investors and large banks on the register, that went belly up. My return? Nada. A nice capital loss was my return. There's been a few of those recently actually.




HMMMMM!!!

Point taken kennas

You think Talbot is a possible Pied Piper of Financial Death then?


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## hangseng (18 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> You think Talbot is a possible Pied Piper of Financial Death then?




Maybe that is why he has just chosen to pump another AUD$5M into SDL. Or maybe he just threw it all on black at the casino.

I really don't think so at all. He knows far more about this project than any of us her. He has done this because he knows what is going on, what will occur and has placed (further) funds to what he believes is an excellent investment.

Either that or he is a complete dill, again I really do not think that is the case.


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## The Muffin Man (19 March 2009)

You would have to think that surely Talbot knows what is going on, and how close/far off both the Mbalam Convention and an offtake/strategic partner agreement possibly are. As stated earlier, I think the purpose of the latest small capital raising is to ensure there is sufficient operating funds to get the company through to either the signing of the Mbalam Convention, or further announcements on strategic parters / off-take agreements.


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## big sal (19 March 2009)

Up over 12% as at 12.25pm today on volume of 26M plus units and buyers now outnumber sellers (something we haven't seen for a while). 

Mmmmn … any ideas or just a good day?!


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## Sean K (19 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> HMMMMM!!!
> 
> Point taken kennas
> 
> You think Talbot is a possible Pied Piper of Financial Death then?



Well, I'm definately not saying that death is on it's way, just that anything can happen, and big investors can get things wrong. Nothing's a certainty is my motto, and it can save your bacon. Let's hope Talbots deep pockets and influence keep SDL running to production.


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## The Muffin Man (19 March 2009)

big sal said:


> Up over 12% as at 12.25pm today on volume of 26M plus units and buyers now outnumber sellers (something we haven't seen for a while).
> 
> Mmmmn … any ideas or just a good day?!




Just noticed the strange trading. Will be keeping an eye on the stock for any positive announcements in the following few weeks. SDL is quite leaky in that regard.


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## jonojpsg (19 March 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> Just noticed the strange trading. Will be keeping an eye on the stock for any positive announcements in the following few weeks. SDL is quite leaky in that regard.




Hey all,
May be time right now to jump on - every time there is good news coming the price and volume have done this, at least as far as I can recall.  Am going to have a crack anyways and see what comes


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## The Muffin Man (19 March 2009)

The price is starting to move down a little now (8.2 from a high of 8.6), but someone definitely had a go at it today.


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## CarbonSteel (19 March 2009)

big sal said:


> Up over 12% as at 12.25pm today on volume of 26M plus units and buyers now outnumber sellers (something we haven't seen for a while).
> 
> Mmmmn … any ideas or just a good day?!




I would be very, very surprised if this is not educated money.

I don't think it's just a "good day."

Turnover has gone from an average 3-4 million to 38 million and its not because of overkeen sellers, simply because the price improved!

I think that for a "speccie" to improve 12% in one day is extraordinary, given that "speccies" are the last tranch to improve coming out of a recession. (expert opinion, not mine!)

I think they can issue up to 30% of the number of existing shares as new shares. That's about 600M new shares, I think. 8 cents is the maximum price for existing SH's. I'll have to read the offer when it arrives in the post.

We could be looking at a total share issue of up to 2.4 billion shares. Obvious dilution implications, but will it matter? 

Can't wait to see the news/rumour/announcement that's driving this!

:bowser:


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## Doris (19 March 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> The price is starting to move down a little now (8.2 from a high of 8.6), but someone definitely had a go at it today.




When you look at the intraday trading chart it sure seems that someone of means was getting on board or ramping it.  At 10:15 just over 6 million drove it up from 7.5 to 7.7c... then seemed to watch it until about 11:20 when a batch of high volume until 11:45 drove it to 8.6c. Activity was steady after that. I was chicken and wondered whether the buyers at 7.5-7.7c were feeding back into the frenzy.  Logic said to buy with it above 8c with high volume but I just watched - was not game to gamble.  Who dares, wins?  We'll see.


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## CarbonSteel (20 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> I would be very, very surprised if this is not educated money.
> 
> I don't think it's just a "good day."
> 
> ...




...and back down on the rollercoaster again today. Makes me dizzy trying to keep up with it. 

Looks like a bit of profit-taking after yesterday?

Sellers ruled the roost.

Still would like to know the reasons for yesterdays "raid".


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## onshow (23 March 2009)

SDL is looking very good at present with the buys outweighing the sells and with the current market starting to slowly build a base to work on building the structure to creat a nice bull market which im guessing we all agree we can not wait for and i think sdl will be in the best position to take advantage of that with the great potentional this company has to become a leader in the commodity market. I think we will be seeing .09 by the end of the week. Just my thoughts what do others think ?


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## prawn_86 (23 March 2009)

onshow said:


> I think we will be seeing .09 by the end of the week.




Onshow,

If you are going to make statements like that you need to back it up with reasons why. Simply 'thinking' that is not enough? Why should it reach that price this week??

Future posts without analysis will be removed.

As you are a relatively new member i suggest you read the posting guidelines.


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## jonojpsg (23 March 2009)

onshow said:


> SDL is looking very good at present with the buys outweighing the sells and with the current market starting to slowly build a base to work on building the structure to creat a nice bull market which im guessing we all agree we can not wait for and i think sdl will be in the best position to take advantage of that with the great potentional this company has to become a leader in the commodity market. I think we will be seeing .09 by the end of the week. Just my thoughts what do others think ?




To help a new guy (or gal) out, there are some signs that point to a rally for SDL, with the previous few posts holding one of these.  The big surge last week up to 8.6c with high volume was typical of a pre announcement buy up, and even though it dropped back again, buying has picked up again a bit today.  Also nearing end of March which people may be thinking will herald news re discussions with potential partners??

9c by end of week - who knows??


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## onshow (23 March 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> To help a new guy (or gal) out, there are some signs that point to a rally for SDL, with the previous few posts holding one of these.  The big surge last week up to 8.6c with high volume was typical of a pre announcement buy up, and even though it dropped back again, buying has picked up again a bit today.  Also nearing end of March which people may be thinking will herald news re discussions with potential partners??
> 
> 9c by end of week - who knows??




Thankyou all for you comments i will take them into consideration with my futurue posts!  Just to shed some light on why i think we will see .09 by weeks end, I think and by seeing whats happening in overseas markets tonight, that we are in for a great week with some good news coming out of the us tommorrow with there revised stimulus plan and in more detail they will share with us will help drive the world markets up as confidents grow that we have seen the bottom, which inturn will help sdl gain in price as we seen last week how it reached .086 so .09 in a good week of market is not unreasonable at all and as for the large numbers to buy my gut tells me there is something lurking in the waters that will be of advantage to sdl, im suspecting it will be a finacial announcement possibly to do with another company. Please dont quote me on this as its only my thoughts on what is going to happen not cold hrad facts but i guess we are all intitled to our thoughts. These comments are based on some facts and reasearch but as we all know anything can happen.


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## zmalecki (24 March 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> 9c by end of week - who knows??




Shouldn't be a big deal.
Why ?
Look for today TSX   +5%, NYSE S&P 500 +7%
Fed will buy bonds for 700 Billion USD, 
"rescue plan" for US economy presented, 
China is running with stimulation program, 
USD/AUD is targeting 1.40  (month ago(?) it was > 1.6)
copper is reaching 4 month higher...
I know that it is not related directly to SDL, but something changed.

and .... on the north from equator is already spring.....


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## Pythagerous (24 March 2009)

Interesting read on Cameroon

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSLN6438820090323

March 23 (Reuters) - Uncertainties over national politics and the global economic crisis are restricting investment in Cameroon's wealth of natural resources.

Here are details about the country and investment projects.



POPULATION - 19.5 million people.

LANGUAGE - French and English are the two official languages. About 200 African languages are also spoken.

GEOGRAPHY - Cameroon covers 465,400 sq km (179,700 sq miles) and stretches from mangrove swamps on the Atlantic Coast through dense rainforests to the more arid north by Lake Chad. It borders Nigeria, Chad, Central African Republic, Congo Republic, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. It is a bit smaller than Spain.

HISTORY - French Cameroon became independent in 1960. In 1961, the British Southern Cameroons voted to join the new republic. However, Anglophone separatists complain of marginalisation by Cameroon's mainly francophone authorities.

-- President Paul Biya, 75, came to power in 1982 as the hand-picked successor of independence President Ahmadou Ahidjo. Biya took more than 75 percent of the vote in the last presidential poll in late 2004 and in April 2008 signed into law a bill removing a two-term presidential limit allowing him to extend his 25-year rule by standing for re-election in 2011.

ECONOMY -- Cameroon is the biggest economy in the six-nation central African CFA zone. It produces some 90,000 barrels of oil per day, half its peak in the 1980s. Forecast 2009 growth has been cut to around 4 percent, from over 6 percent, as a result of the collapse in commodity prices and the global slowdown.

-- Cameroon also exports bananas, cocoa, cotton and coffee.

-- Neighbour Nigeria and Cameroon have increased cooperation through various projects along their 1,700 km (1,062 mile) shared border including hydropower, since the 2008 resolution of a protracted dispute over the oil-rich Bakassi peninsula.

ALUMINIUM, BAUXITE - Rio Tinto Alcan is a partner with Cameroon's government in Alucam, a bauxite mining operation scheduled to include a 1 million tonne aluminium smelter at Kribi. Rio has said the projects remain on track and the company still aims to build a 1,000 megawatt hydroelectric dam to power the smelter despite project cutbacks elsewhere.

-- U.S. firm Hydromines, the United Arab Emirates's Dubai Aluminium (DUBAL) and India's Hindalco Industries have formed Cameroon Alumina Limited (CAL), which aims to exploit 1.2 billion tonnes of bauxite from Cameroon. The project is due to start production in 2013. The consortium plans to invest $5-6 billion in a bauxite mining and refinery project near Ngaoundere, around 400 km (250 miles) north of the capital Yaounde, and a railway linking the project to the port of Douala, 600 km away.

COBALT - Toronto-listed Geovic owns 60 percent of the a nickel-cobalt-manganese project in Nkamouna, in eastern Cameroon. Geovic expects to produce 4,200 tonnes of cobalt per year, making it the world's second largest producer of the metal, and 2,100 tonnes of nickel a year for 21 years. But Geovic said last week the project, where construction was due to start this month, would be delayed by about a year, and costs cut to $250 million from $370 million.

*IRON ORE - Australia's Sundance Resources has an exploration permit for the Mbalam deposits. Sundance is scheduled to begin exporting iron ore from its $2.46 billion project by 2011 but the firm is currently involved in tax wrangles with the government and is seeking financial partners.*

URANIUM - Nu Energy Corporation, a subsidiary of Canada's Mega Uranium Ltd is exploring for uranium in two sites in the north and the south of the country.

PORTS - Douala, Cameroon's commercial capital, is the country's main port and handles 95 percent of the import and export traffic from Cameroon, as well land-locked neighbours Chad and Central African Republic. Capacity is constrained, and a new port is planned at Kribi to accommodate larger ships. A pre-selection tender process has been completed, with Rio Tinto, Sundance, China Harbour Engineering Corporation and Maersk amongst those on the shortlist.


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## CarbonSteel (24 March 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> To help a new guy (or gal) out, there are some signs that point to a rally for SDL, with the previous few posts holding one of these.  The big surge last week up to 8.6c with high volume was typical of a pre announcement buy up, and even though it dropped back again, buying has picked up again a bit today.  Also nearing end of March which people may be thinking will herald news re discussions with potential partners??
> 
> 9c by end of week - who knows??




Down 2.5% today. 

Is it true that "speccies" are the last to benefit in a bull market?

From the Share Purchase Plan Offer.....







> The proposed placement and Share Purchase Plan Offer will supplement our existing cash reserves to ensure that the Company has funding in place to continue its current activities on the Mbalam Project through to 2010. This will allow us time to develop arrangements with potential strategic partners and ensure that we are best positioned to advance the project as and when global financial conditions improve.”




To me, this reads like there are no partners even close to signing. Lewis wants to sign an interested party (if one can be located!) towards 2010. 
To me, this means we will not see any great improvement in price for several months, possibly a couple of years, save some possible manipulation of the price to increase interest in the Share Purchase Plan Offer in the near term. If this is the case, the price may subsequently fall again as there will still be no positive news forthcoming.

Neither the pessimist nor the optimist, I remain the realist. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and accept reality. As an intended long term SDL holder, I do not see any real profit till they have offtake agreements and construction is at least 50% complete (to give investors some real confidence).

But don't take my word for it, DYOR. 

Comments are solicited and appreciated.


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## jman2007 (24 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> To me, this reads like there are no partners even close to signing. Lewis wants to sign an interested party (if one can be located!) towards 2010.
> To me, this means we will not see any great improvement in price for several months, possibly a couple of years, save some possible manipulation of the price to increase interest in the Share Purchase Plan Offer in the near term. If this is the case, the price may subsequently fall again as there will still be no positive news forthcoming.




I more or less agree with your long-term view,

Traders may be able to make a buck here and there, but if you're a long-term investor then you'll need plenty of that other commodity which is quite often in short supply - patience. 

People need to consider that the beauracracy in developing countries is also very considerable, in part because their mining/environmental laws are not as advanced or well-developed as our's. 

If you're a believer in the SDL story, then best to find yourself a good hobby, put your shares in the bottom drawer for safe keeping, and ween yourself of checking the sp every day. 

jman


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## CarbonSteel (24 March 2009)

jman2007 said:


> I more or less agree with your long-term view,
> Traders may be able to make a buck here and there,.....
> jman




I still can't understand how traders can profit from the ups and downs of this stock. Where do they get any information that might give them some clue about future direction? 

Any trader that can make money out of this unpredictable stock deserves every cent of profit he/she makes!

We have suggestions of 9 cents by the end of the week. As if to punish the "suggestee", the stock falls 2.5% the same day, within hours in fact. I mention this solely to illustrate the unpredictability.

Good luck to you traders! You have more guts than me!


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## CarbonSteel (25 March 2009)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aQvo9XB4pspY&refer=australia

Cause for concern?
Might explain why the BDI is storming south again.


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## Sean K (25 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aQvo9XB4pspY&refer=australia
> 
> Cause for concern?
> Might explain why the BDI is storming south again.



LOL. You're taking notice of a 'Citigroup says' article.

Good contra-indicator maybe.

As soon as there's a down day the bear articles surface.

The next 7% rally and the bulls will be front page.


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## big sal (25 March 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aQvo9XB4pspY&refer=australia
> 
> Cause for concern?
> Might explain why the BDI is storming south again.





Those with projects on the go and with great potential, such as SDL, one would think, won’t be too concerned about what article’s like this one say about iron ore prices in the short term. 

If contracts are signed in the coming months then that will determine where the SDL share price goes, not what the IO price will/may be doing in the next year or two.

SDL has a very large resource and could become a big supplier in the future, something SDL holders should not lose sight off.


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## jman2007 (25 March 2009)

big sal said:


> Those with projects on the go and with great potential, such as SDL, one would think, won’t be too concerned about what article’s like this one say about iron ore prices in the short term.
> 
> If contracts are signed in the coming months then that will determine where the SDL share price goes, not what the IO price will/may be doing in the next year or two.
> 
> SDL has a very large resource and could become a big supplier in the future, something SDL holders should not lose sight off.




Exactly sal,

One thing which has become apparent is that many base metal and IO developments during the last 3-4 years have not been able to time their project start-up with the peak in the commodity cycles. Of the one's that did make it, many came into depressed market condiotions and struggled financially e.g. Ravensthorpe.

Now is the perfect time to be exploring, discovering new ore bodies and laying the foundations for the recovery in metals prices, which admitedly no-one can predict for sure, but I don't think SDL will be over-concerned about the article.

jman


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## CarbonSteel (27 March 2009)

kennas said:


> LOL. You're taking notice of a 'Citigroup says' article.
> 
> Good contra-indicator maybe.
> 
> ...




So you think that advice given by Americas' second largest bank is nothing but a joke?

Why do you think that Citigroup has no credibilty? 

I ask because I am kinda new and I didn't realise that Citigroup was chastised by experienced investors such as yourself. 

Please enlighten me sir.


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## CarbonSteel (27 March 2009)

big sal said:


> If contracts are signed in the coming months then that will determine where the SDL share price goes, not what the IO price will/may be doing in the next year or two.




So the IO price will have no impact on SP at any time in the future?

The SP will only be affected by the volume of contracts signed?


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## Pythagerous (30 March 2009)

To buy or not to buy, that is the question......

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=80950&sn=Detail


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## rogue_investor (31 March 2009)

why buy?  It's cheaper to buy on market now.  If they are suggesting the 5 day VWAP will provide better value in the lead up to the offer closing then it's a sell now and buy later.  I was thinking of buying more but don't quite get it??


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## quinn123 (1 April 2009)

Apparently there was a fire at the Cam Iron Head office in Yaounde.  I came accross this in a google search and don't know how credible the info is.  

http://www.crtv.cm/cont/nouvelles/nouvelles_sola_fr.php?idField=3773&table=nouvelles&sub=national


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## quinn123 (1 April 2009)

Strange trading this morning:

Higher volume than usual.
Share Quote as at 10:37 AM Sydney Time, Wednesday, 1 April 2009
Volume 10,532,71
% Change +9.09
Last 0.084


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## Miner (1 April 2009)

quinn123 said:


> Strange trading this morning:
> 
> Higher volume than usual.
> Share Quote as at 10:37 AM Sydney Time, Wednesday, 1 April 2009
> ...




I think it is associated with issue of right shares at 8 cents and some interested parties to take hold of more shares too.


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## ocelot (2 April 2009)

As a shareholder in Sundance can somebody explain the shareholder offering in plain english? I received the package in the mail saying I could buy shares @ .08c Why wouldn't I Just buy them on the market? I don't understand

Thanks


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## spottygoose (2 April 2009)

When companies issue a SPP they are expecting that the price they offer will be a discount to the current price unfortunately, in this current market, quite often that is not happening. So in the meantime if you can get them cheaper on market then you would be wise to do so if you intend to increase your holding that is. My guess is that by the time the SPP closes Sundance are hoping that the share price will be higher than the offer and hence people will take it up. Perhaps some news will be out before then, maybe they will try and prop up the price, who knows...


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## The Muffin Man (2 April 2009)

ocelot said:


> As a shareholder in Sundance can somebody explain the shareholder offering in plain english? I received the package in the mail saying I could buy shares @ .08c Why wouldn't I Just buy them on the market? I don't understand
> 
> Thanks




It's 8c, or the weighted average of the stock price for the 5 days leading into the stock offer date, which ever is lowest. So if the average is 7.7c for the 5 days, that's the price you will pay, not the 8c.


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## The Muffin Man (2 April 2009)

spottygoose said:


> When companies issue a SPP they are expecting that the price they offer will be a discount to the current price unfortunately, in this current market, quite often that is not happening. So in the meantime if you can get them cheaper on market then you would be wise to do so if you intend to increase your holding that is. My guess is that by the time the SPP closes Sundance are hoping that the share price will be higher than the offer and hence people will take it up. *Perhaps some news will be out before then, maybe they will try and prop up the price, who knows...*




That would be nice! Also remember that the company gets the money you spend on a SPP. You buy off the market, it doesn't help the company one bit as far as rasing funds goes. 0.1-0.2 might be a small price to pay to make sure your funds go to the company if, and I say if, you are an investor in the company and not a trader/speculator.


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## jonojpsg (2 April 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> It's 8c, or the weighted average of the stock price for the 5 days leading into the stock offer date, which ever is lowest. So if the average is 7.7c for the 5 days, that's the price you will pay, not the 8c.




I believe it is actually a 5% discount to the VWAP over the five days prior to offer - so about 0.4c less if it is trading at 8c.


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## Pythagerous (2 April 2009)

I've got a couple of questions about the Share Offer and Sundance as a whole.

*1. If every share holder decides to buy $5000 worth, will they have to reduce the maximum amount of shares available for purchase per shareholder under the share offer?*

2. Is it fair to say that the share price probably won't go much higher then 8c until the share offer expires?

*3. What is the difference between a "Rail or Slurry Pipeline", as mentioned in their latest presentation? Is it suggesting that transport is going to be by either rail or by a slurry pipeline?*

4. How long does it take to build a 485km rail road, and does anyone have an idea of the torrain. There looks to be quite a few rivers that they need to build across, yet the graph, if i am reading it right, looks as though the land is quiet flat.

*5. Hyperthetical. If Ken Talbot IS NOT 100% confident in Sundance finding a financial backer, for what other reasons might he invest a further $5 Million?*

6. How much land does Sundance own rights too, and what percentage of this land has been untested or left for later?

*7. Has there been any indication as to when further information on financing might become available? I note that their timeline inidicates that they are hoping to have it finalised by mid 2009.*


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## CarbonSteel (2 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> I've got a couple of questions about the Share Offer and Sundance as a whole.
> 
> *1. If every share holder decides to buy $5000 worth, will they have to reduce the maximum amount of shares available for purchase per shareholder under the share offer?*
> 
> ...




1. Yes. See Share Purchase Offer @ Sundance website.

2. It is very tempting for the company and its' major shareholders to ensure that the SP is above 8 cents at the end of the  "5 per cent discount to the volume weighted average price (VWAP) to three decimal places of shares traded on the ASX in the *five trading days up to and including the scheduled offer closing date."* Put Simply, this will attract more new capital.

3.It will be by rail or slurry line. Slurry Line? Mix it with water and pump it.

4. Don't know. No. Yes and yes.

5. When I, as a poster asked essentially this same question, those who are a little more sceptical than I, say that even big players make mistakes. I guess they're right. Look at the US banks!

6. They have sh*tloads of land and preliminary test drills indicate possible large deposits in DRoC, not to mention adjacent landholdings in Cameroon. Again, go to the Sundance website.

7. Don't hold your breath on this one. The only certainty is that things in this regard will remain uncertain. I have a feeling that the educated money will have bought to the point of financial obesity before us little guys are told. If you analyse the recent raids (two in the last few days) it looks like something is imminent. But is that just manipulating the SP? Who knows?

SDL is considered a "speccie" I'm told. As such, information will be scant and you can expect educated money to be well in front of you.

In my own instance, I believe this company will go places. I don't know when exactly, but I do know that if I don't own shares, I will miss a very big opportunity if they succeed. That's my own philosophy. It is NOT intended to be advice or inducement. 

Remember that there may well be folks in this very forum who paid 45 cents or more for the privilege of owning SDL in the not-to-distant past!

DYOR. Cheers.


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## zmalecki (3 April 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Remember that there may well be folks in this very forum who paid 45 cents or more for the privilege of owning SDL in the not-to-distant past!
> 
> DYOR. Cheers.




They are 
I'm one of them, but I think there is huge potential in this company.
This is a reason that when price went really down, I'm still increasing & increasing position.
There is a risk in there, but expected value is compensating it with huge margin.


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## LRG (4 April 2009)

3. What is the difference between a "Rail or Slurry Pipeline", as mentioned in their latest presentation? Is it suggesting that transport is going to be by either rail or by a slurry pipeline?

Transporting by "rail" in wagons is sel explanatory (i hope)

Transporting by "slurry pipe" means a big pipe/s the raw material iron ore is transported wet as a slurry pumped along a pipeline from mine to port.


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## talktome (6 April 2009)

Hello Everyone,

With all the extra aerograms and the like, what would be your current conservative estimate of future resources that SDL may have, come 2012.

Kind regards,

talktome


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## RP_Automotive (6 April 2009)

Nobody can really say, but considering the acerage they have there is a chance for considerable upgrades. Untill the drill it though no point speculating. I would say no more drilling or proving up of extra resources will happen untill they go into production. Unless funding / JV is very generous.

P.S. Massive volumes and up 11% at this point.......


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## RP_Automotive (6 April 2009)

Wow....volume is now 70mill and up 1c. Is SDL leaking like a seathe again, or does everyone know it leaks like a seathe so is just jumpng on 'incase'.


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## The Muffin Man (6 April 2009)

You would have to think that something is going on. Up 15% and 77m shares traded. Trading today is absolutely out of the normal. So, who is buying into SDL heavily? There have been some rare 25m-30m trading days lately, but 77m? Watch this space I would think.


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## bassmanpete (6 April 2009)

Now over 91m traded and up to 9.8c with still 3 hours before the ASX closes.




> leaking like a seathe




I think the word you're looking for is sieve


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## RP_Automotive (6 April 2009)

Sorry Pete, yes sieve 

Up 22.5% now. Something is definitely up. When I saw the spike this morning I thought it gradually die out (as it often does) but this time its kept on running...


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## The Muffin Man (6 April 2009)

There will no doubtedly be some share traders that will take the profits before the day is out though, I don't expect it to finish the day as high as current levels. But still, very impressive, both the rise and and volume level.


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## xyzedarteerf (6 April 2009)

went up to 31% at one stage 0.105 as usual must be some sort of announcement happening again hopefully it doesnt run out of steam but we know better : still holding.


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## ocelot (6 April 2009)

Quite impressive, with this price rise of the stock buying the stock offer at 8c makes it a good buy?


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## RP_Automotive (6 April 2009)

What a day. Held solid and ended up 25%....but the volume 152mill!!!

Lets hope theres a good lead in the US tonight and we can hold onto our gains. If there is a announcement I look forward to it.

ocelot: Yes  the options are looking better...early days yet but we'll see what happens.


Holding for long term.


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## Pythagerous (6 April 2009)

Ocelot, my understanding is that if the shares are trading at higher than 8c, every man and there dog will take up the share offer, meaning that you won't be able to get the full $5000 worth.

Can anyone confirm if this is correct, and what the correct process is if everyone chooses to take up the offer.

As for the news, if there is an announcement, it can't be drilling results, so one would imagine that it would have to be information relating to:

- Finding a Backer
or
- Confirming particulars with the Cameroon Government
or
- Further information relating to the Rail and Port

With all of the above said, it could well just be just be another rally by the traders who love this stock.


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## The Muffin Man (6 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Ocelot, my understanding is that if the shares are trading at higher than 8c, every man and there dog will take up the share offer, meaning that you won't be able to get the full $5000 worth.
> 
> Can anyone confirm if this is correct, and what the correct process is if everyone chooses to take up the offer.
> 
> ...




That's the big question isn't it? Who is buying the shares and why? I don't think it would be a run of the mill rally by traders when you look at the numbers. If it were simply traders, they would have sold out and taken the profits to be had towards the end of the day. And I doubt you would have seen those kinds of volumes either. This was a day of constant and strong buying. As has been stated, rallies where traders are heavilly involved usually show signs of heavy selling and dpwnward pressure on price towards the end of the day. Just my opinion though.

Surely some kind of news has to be at hand. We have recently had days of 26m shares, 30m shares, and now 152m shares. In 2009 we have been lucky to see trading above the 10m share mark. So whats the news? Or who is increasing their share position?

It may well be something to do with the Cameroon Government or strategic partners, but if a deal with either was close, why would SDL announce a share purchase at 8c? Wouldn't it make more sense to get the deal done, wait for SP appreciation, and then either raise the same level of funds but issue less shares, or issue the same number of shares and receive more funds? 

In any event, SDL has some pretty information hungry share holders I'm sure!


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## paddy (6 April 2009)

The big gain today could be due to the write up on SDL on page 15 of today's Financial Review. The report contained no new information, but quoted GJ as saying he was confident of having a major partner in place by the middle of the year


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## CarbonSteel (6 April 2009)

> Rio Tinto to extend survey for planned Cameroon port - Report
> Monday, 06 Apr 2009
> Dow Jones reported that Mining company Rio Tinto PLC asked and got government permit to undertake a 3 months extra surveying for the planned deep sea port in the Cameroonian Atlantic town of Kribi.
> 
> ...




So, Rio is ensconced in "our" part of the world, and will be sharing a common port facility with SDL. I wonder if they'd be interested in mining a litttle IO while they're handy?


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## CarbonSteel (6 April 2009)

Don thinks this caused folks to buy 152M shares today.

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true

Looks like paddy nailed it first up!


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## Pythagerous (7 April 2009)

Here is the official response from Sundance in relation to yesterdays volume of trading. http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20604/asx announcement - price and volume query.pdf

In regards to the below article, it says that RIO have got an extra 3 months for surveying the planned deep sea port in the Cameroonian Atlantic town of *Kribi*. 

*Rio Tinto to extend survey for planned Cameroon port - Report Monday, 06 Apr 2009*_

Dow Jones reported that Mining company Rio Tinto PLC asked and got government permit to undertake a 3 months extra surveying for the planned deep sea port in the Cameroonian Atlantic town of *Kribi*._

_Rio Tinto, a strategic partner of staterun Societe Camerounaise d'Aluminium, or Alucam, aiming to raise Cameroon's 90,000 tonnes of aluminum output to 400,000 tonnes and export shipments export will be via the 500 billion CFA franc port to be constructed and completed by 2013.

The port will also facilitate the transportation of oil products, iron ore, aluminum, cobalt and nickel._

_(Sourced from Dow Jones)_


Just having a look at Sundance's proposed transport corridor, and it appears that they are proposing a port at the town of *Lolabe*. Does this mean that RIO are looking at developing a different port?


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## zmalecki (7 April 2009)

152 Mio. That is more than 7.5% outstanding shares.
Lets wait for announcement who bought and who sold.
It might be change of substantial shareholders........


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## The Muffin Man (7 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Here is the official response from Sundance in relation to yesterdays volume of trading. http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20604/asx announcement - price and volume query.pdf
> 
> In regards to the below article, it says that RIO have got an extra 3 months for surveying the planned deep sea port in the Cameroonian Atlantic town of *Kribi*.
> 
> ...




Read: http://www.sundanceresources.com.au...nnouncement -  kribi deepwater port final.pdf

RIO is developing the Aluminium port, SDL is developing the Iron Ore Port. They are one and the same.

The big question is, how will the share trade today? I think there will be some profit taking.


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## RP_Automotive (7 April 2009)

Announcement out this morning, increased target at Nebebna:

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00942583


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## jonojpsg (7 April 2009)

Looks like a pretty impressive target too!  This definitely adds spice to the Mbalam resource with the possibility of another Mbalam-like hit, at least as far as DSO haematite goes.  If they could reproduce Mbalam in itabirite as well...then we might see some serious interest - a cool 5bn tonnes resource, wouldn't that be nice 

Oh well, it's fun to dream.


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## Pythagerous (7 April 2009)

Things seem a bit fishy to me.

Yesterday, there was an unsual high volume of shares traded, warranting the Australian Stock Exchange Ltd to send a "Price and Volume Query" to Sundance, asking for an explanation on the sudden surge.

That same day, Sundance respond and say "The Company is not aware of any information concerning it that has not been announced which, if known, could be an explanation for recent trading in Securities of the Company". They then go onto claim that the article in the Australian Financial Review is more then likely the reason behind the surge.

The very next day, Sundance issue a Media Release, announcing a significant target increase.

Am I the only one seeing this? Surely the surge was in anticipation of the media release announcing fresh news, not by an article that was run on page 15 of the fin review, rehashing old news that everyone already knew.


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## The Muffin Man (7 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Things seem a bit fishy to me.
> 
> Yesterday, there was an unsual high volume of shares traded, warranting the Australian Stock Exchange Ltd to send a "Price and Volume Query" to Sundance, asking for an explanation on the sudden surge.
> 
> ...





You may be right Pythag. A lot of us are of the opinion that SDL tends to leak information early. 

But, I wouldn't play down the significance of the report in the Financial Review. There were some confident remarks made within that article regarding partners by the middle of the year. That's extremely big news. For those following the stock intensely, it comes as a bit of a surprise as the vibe coming from the company has pointed towards this process taking longer than what was mentioned in the article.

Any news/statements regarding possible partners is going to have more effect on the share price than further resource announcements in my opinion. The upgrade in DSO target is fantastic news, and should help the economic arguement for the project without a doubt. But, I don't think the level of ore in that province as a whole has been the issue holding back the share price. It's about securing funding to get the project off the ground in the current climate.


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## CarbonSteel (7 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Things seem a bit fishy to me.
> 
> Yesterday, there was an unsual high volume of shares traded, warranting the Australian Stock Exchange Ltd to send a "Price and Volume Query" to Sundance, asking for an explanation on the sudden surge.
> 
> ...




Lets not lose sight of the real intent here. That intent, I believe, is to raise the SP (and therefore interest in the SPO) as much as possible. They are playing with the Authority and the minor shareholders. Be  honest, it does occur and the BIG BOYS see it as a necessary corruption of the truth!



> For those following the stock intensely, it comes as a bit of a surprise as the vibe coming from the company has pointed towards this process taking longer than what was mentioned in the article.




IMHO, It will take a lot longer. They are only pumping the SP right now. Meaningful announcements are far, far away. 
For those who want a bigtime announcement forthwith, I think you will be disappointed.

This is not an "instant gratification" type stock. If you say you are a long term holder, then I really believe that you will need to remain a long term holder to profit from this stock. 

Be prepared to be disappointed on a daily basis (called a "shakeout, I believe)
for the next 2 - 3 years. Then you will get your richly deserved payback. Small to nothing or less if you are a day trader, but very big if you are a long term investor.

For those who think they are on a winner and will make it big within the next year, my opinion is that you will be very, very disappointed.

Всё


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## quinn123 (8 April 2009)

Would somone be able to post up the article from the australian financial review?  Or give me the gyst of it please.


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## DowJones (9 April 2009)

I'm considering getting the shareholder option of 5k share @ 8c each to average down my current holding . 

Anyone else considering doing the same? 

If SDL continues to hold til the new shares being issued, it is a good discount.

I am bullish long term as their assets are significant, with potential Chinese interest for injecting capital (AFR) - apparently they are pro-Africa for securing their resource needs .


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## CarbonSteel (12 April 2009)

DowJones said:


> I'm considering getting the shareholder option of 5k share @ 8c each to average down my current holding .
> 
> Anyone else considering doing the same?
> 
> ...




I am considering the following.... Sell enough shares in the next few days ( at a price above $0.08) to get $5000. Then apply for $5000 worth of shares as per the offer. E.g. ... Sell 55,556 @ $0.09 = $5000. Then ... Buy $5000 worth at $0.08 = 62500 shares. So, I will have increased my holding by 6944 shares at only the brokerage cost of selling the 55,556 ($32). 

While this strategy does not take account of dilution, my holding will be diluted whether I opt in or not, so I might as well opt in.

And the company gets an extra $5000, so it's a win, win.


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## Piggy Bank (15 April 2009)

Sundance are being very proactive about the current capital raising! Just got off the phone from an SDL representative who called to ensure I had received my offer documents. Apparently, SDL have employed a team to make contact with ALL eligible shareholders before the closure date of the offer. Expect a call...  I am leaning towards taking up my full entitlement


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## CarbonSteel (15 April 2009)

Piggy Bank said:


> Sundance are being very proactive about the current capital raising! Just got off the phone from an SDL representative who called to ensure I had received my offer documents. Apparently, SDL have employed a team to make contact with ALL eligible shareholders before the closure date of the offer. Expect a call...  I am leaning towards taking up my full entitlement




Well, I followed through on my threat and sold 50330 SDL on Tuesday at 10 cents exactly. This gave me $5000 plus covered brokerage for the sale. I will now apply for my $5000 entitlement at 8 cents and will (if there is no scaledown) be issued with 62500 SDL shares. So, effectively, I have gained 12170 free shares. I'm happy with that! And I've supported the company that I've chosen to invest in long term!


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## Pythagerous (17 April 2009)

Below is a link to an Open Breifing with Don Lewis. Interesting read and sounds promising.

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20822/capital raising and project update.pdf


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## Pythagerous (17 April 2009)

Here is a link to the BBY report.

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20779/bby report april 2009.pdf

Interesting to read that Sundance controls *3,755 *square kilometeres of land. To put this in perspective, it is only *3,300 *Kilometeres from Melbourne to Cooktown in far north Queensland.

It is also about *3,960 *kms from Sydney to Perth.

I don't know if I have worked it out right, but to me, that seems like a massive amount of land that the have control of.


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## Sean K (17 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Here is a link to the BBY report.
> 
> http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20779/bby report april 2009.pdf
> 
> ...



I think you might find that Australia is about 7.5m square km, to put that in perspective. 7.5 million... Still 3,700 is quite a paddock. Not much good unless there's something valuable under it though.


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## skc (17 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Here is a link to the BBY report.
> 
> http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20779/bby report april 2009.pdf
> 
> ...




You are confusing distance with area!

3755 square kilometres is around 61km x 61km. It's more like Bondi to Penrith. Nowhere near the perspectives of Sydney to Perth!


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## Pythagerous (17 April 2009)

SKC, me and my thimble research. I didnt think it was right, yet my google searches lead me to think otherwise.

Thanks for clearing that up. I was going to say, that I didnt think Cameroon was that big.


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## Pythagerous (22 April 2009)

With the Share offering closing on Friday, I was hoping that some might be able to give me some advice.

1. What date do we actually aquire the shares?
2. When do we find out if we recieve the full requested volume?
3. Is there going to be a mad sell off of shares on the day everyone recieves their shares?


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## The Muffin Man (22 April 2009)

1. Dates a on the website and in the information sent to holders.
2. See above.
3. Yes, it is a possibility until the share price being traded on the market hits the SPP cost of 8c. Some will have engaged the offer to sell for above 8c.


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## Pythagerous (23 April 2009)

One would imagine that there are a few nervous SDL shareholders out there, that sent their cheques off when they were trading at 10c, only to find that they have traded as low as 8.5c today.


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## CarbonSteel (23 April 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> One would imagine that there are a few nervous SDL shareholders out there, that sent their cheques off when they were trading at 10c, only to find that they have traded as low as 8.5c today.




I would imagine that most sold $5000 worth at 9 - 10 cents and used the entire proceeds to buy $5000 worth at 8 cents. They will soon hold 1000's of "free" shares, and won't stress too much about the 8.5 cents scenario. 

I really don't think that there will be meaningful price movements for some time to come, and if people are stressing about a 2  cent movement, perhaps they would be happier elsewhere. At this stage, I stay with it because I really believe this stock will be a success.... ONE DAY. Not tomorrow or next month or maybe even next year, but I think within 3 years I will be happy I stayed.


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## talktome (28 April 2009)

In regards to the latest broker report by BBY April 2009, (pages 3 & 4, Tables 1 & 2), there is considerable up-side in value for SDL regarding an increase in future iron ore prices and decrease in capital expenditure.

Are these figures achievable?

There's not much SDL can do about IO prices but what is the latest on capital expenditure? From memory there hasn't been a specific announcement on Cap Ex.

Any thoughts ladies and gents?

talktome


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## talktome (28 April 2009)

Found this:

"We have recently had a major contractor on site reviewing the two options and will continue work to refine and develop the optimal solution. This will include review of our capital cost estimates which were last updated in early 2008. We are certainly seeing potential for reduction in our previous capital cost estimates due to significantly more competitive market conditions."

Don Lewis - April 16th 2009 interview.

talktome


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## The Muffin Man (29 April 2009)

Announcement released today, $15m has been raised (assuming the placement to Talbot Group gains shareholder approval which I'm sure it will)

What are everyone's thoughts on the SPP response and the overall amount raised? Those commenting within the announcement seemed pleased by the level of response. I would like to see what SDL's cash position is now, but if I'm correct, a March Quarterly cash flow report was never released so it would be impossible to ascertain at this point. In any event, they should have enough to see out the year, considering they have ceased drilling at Mbalam having already identified their target resource level.


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## paddy (29 April 2009)

Muffin Man - I'm pretty sure that the quarterly cashflow and activity statements are due at the end of the month following the end of each quarter. Therefore we should get these reports for the March quarter either today or tomorrow, then we'll be able to figure out SDL's (relatively) current cash position


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## RP_Automotive (29 April 2009)

SDL may have waited untill the last minute so they can include share placement figures in the report, scene as it was only 'signed as sealed' yesturday.


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## CarbonSteel (29 April 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> Announcement released today, $15m has been raised (assuming the placement to Talbot Group gains shareholder approval which I'm sure it will)
> 
> What are everyone's thoughts on the SPP response and the overall amount raised? Those commenting within the announcement seemed pleased by the level of response. I would like to see what SDL's cash position is now, but if I'm correct, a March Quarterly cash flow report was never released so it would be impossible to ascertain at this point. In any event, they should have enough to see out the year, considering they have ceased drilling at Mbalam having already identified their target resource level.




The Chairmans Address dated 29 April 2009 actually does address the issues you raise....

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=sdl&timeframe=D&period=W

or direct download here...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090429/pdf/31h9jy56vrx26s.pdf

Also there is a presentation given in Beijing (22 pages) released today, with some minor new info and also available on ASX website or direct download here...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090429/pdf/31h9lqmddyn81d.pdf

Hope it helps


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## The Muffin Man (29 April 2009)

Yes, those documents were released after my post.

It doesn't state what cash the company holds but does state it will get them through into 2010 which is nice to know. SDL can now continue to impress the significance of this resource on potential partners. I wouldn't mind knowing when the Cameroon Government is officially going to tip their hat into the ring and come up with the 50% of development costs for their increased stake in CamIron. I get the feeling they are going to sit it out until SDL can secure partners. You would think that once a partner is found, the Cameroon Government will jump in and commit.

The timeline in the presentation is interesting (possibly a little optimistic too!). Neither the negotiations with partners nor the Mbalam Convention go past 2009 and into 2010. The update of the Feasibility Study and construction costs will be interesting, it will be good to see how far the CAPEX has reduced since the initial estimates were made sometime ago. Any information that will bring down the CAPEX of the project will make it look that much more attractive to potential investors. I just hope there are a few companies out there willing to look past the current sentiment and see what will be a great investment.


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## CarbonSteel (30 April 2009)

From the Quarterly Activities Report released today....

1. Continue to focus on discussions with interested parties.

2. Discussions to take place in June with the Government to progress the Mbalam Convention.

3. Got a cool $25Mil in cash.

4. Posssible pellet plant to add value. (4 Mt/a)

It's getting a little more positive. :alcohol:

Any good news I've missed? 

Oh yeah...hit 10.5c again today


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## big sal (30 April 2009)

this isn't normal - has hit 11c on 79M volume and buyers now 36M vs sellers 15M units! and might just hit 11.5c ...


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## The Muffin Man (30 April 2009)

The movement is a little weird, I've given up trying to determine why the prices move the way they do and at what volumes!

I can't see any new news within the announcements over the last few days that would warrant an 80m share volume and a 18% price increase. I'm thinking the price will get traded back down to aroung 9c over the next 3-5 trading days as per usual


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## CarbonSteel (30 April 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Any good news I've missed?
> 
> Oh yeah...hit 10.5c again today




Wow! Make that 11.5 cents! 

(These 0.5 cent rises make it reaaalllyyyy worth while!)

Where's good old :bowdown:snopandsnap when you need him?:


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## big sal (30 April 2009)

i'm not sure how to check when SDL last had volume of 86.5M units in the one day but it's big! what % of total number of shares on issue is that?

there may just be some momentum there now to carry it forward again tomorrow and if the DOW stays in the green. overly optimistic to bet it can crack through the sellers in the 11.5-13c range, but with buyers 33M units v sellers 15.8M units at close, you never know, especially if quick profit takers from today's rise stay away.


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## jonojpsg (30 April 2009)

big sal said:


> i'm not sure how to check when SDL last had volume of 86.5M units in the one day but it's big! what % of total number of shares on issue is that?
> 
> there may just be some momentum there now to carry it forward again tomorrow and if the DOW stays in the green. overly optimistic to bet it can crack through the sellers in the 11.5-13c range, but with buyers 33M units v sellers 15.8M units at close, you never know, especially if quick profit takers from today's rise stay away.




From memory it occurs fairly regularly (1/couple of months) bigsal.  I think the week before last saw 150m-ish with a move up of about 1c?  SDL have about 1.8bn shares on issue so 86m is about 5% of that.


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## Pythagerous (1 May 2009)

I think that this sudden jump in the share price of SDL is quite easy to explain. There has been a lot of hype of the last couple of days about SDL, with the meeting and several announcements / documents made. This has resulted in a number of news articles bringing attention to SDL.

I would say that the traders have also used this as an oppurtunity to try and rally the share price.

There are going to be a number of shareholders that recieve *62,500 *shares, which they purchased at *8c* in the SPP. As soon as they have access to these shares, I am tipping there will be somewhat of a sell off, as some will see the oppurtunity to lock in a *$1250+* profit if they can sell it for *10c* and above.


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## fureien (1 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> I think that this sudden jump in the share price of SDL is quite easy to explain. There has been a lot of hype of the last couple of days about SDL, with the meeting and several announcements / documents made. This has resulted in a number of news articles bringing attention to SDL.
> 
> I would say that the traders have also used this as an oppurtunity to try and rally the share price.
> 
> There are going to be a number of shareholders that recieve *62,500 *shares, which they purchased at *8c* in the SPP. As soon as they have access to these shares, I am tipping there will be somewhat of a sell off, as some will see the oppurtunity to lock in a *$1250+* profit if they can sell it for *10c* and above.





would you know roughly when that would be?

i was holding shares in sdl, but i had a non expiring limit sell order at 0.098 yesterday which i totally forgot about (i bought at 0.09 was trying to sell within the support and resistance ranges) because of the previous weeks drop in share price (i bought it just as the share issue at 0.08 was being hyped up, so i guess eveyrone was trying to consolidate it down to 0.08) i didnt think it would break the resistance. but waddya noe it broke it and i missed out on like an extra 15% profit or something lol. damn! didnt even get a chance to blink.

but if your saying they havent recieved the shares yet (i thought that "completion of capital raisin" would mean eveyrone got their shares already?)
im gunna see another drop? cause i made a bid today at 0.01 cents cause volume seems good -_-


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## CarbonSteel (1 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> There are going to be a number of shareholders that recieve *62,500 *shares, which they purchased at *8c* in the SPP. As soon as they have access to these shares, I am tipping there will be somewhat of a sell off, as some will see the oppurtunity to lock in a *$1250+* profit if they can sell it for *10c* and above.




This may well be the case for some investors....however, there is at least one other option.

I personally will not be selling the shares that I just bought for 8 cents. I sold at 10 cents and then bought these shares at 8 cents, so I already have my profit in free shares. There is the possibility that I will profit by a lot more than 2 cents if I use time as a tool.

I think that there are some good reasons not to be a seller right now. (I could not forgive myself if I sold now to take a 2 cent profit and was then staring down the barrel of say, for example, 30 cents three months hence.)

1. The focus on discussions with Strategic Partners sounds like it is intensifying during the June Quarter. From the Quarterly Report...







> These companies include some of the world's largest iron ore and steel industry groups. Site inspections have been completed by a number of parties with follow up technical and commercial evaluation.



It is therefore possible that there will be an announcement regarding the outcome of these talks at the end of July. Indeed, I understand that George Jones was quoted as saying he was "confident" or "very hopeful" that this would be the case.

2. Discussions are to take place in June Quarter with the Government to progress the Mbalam Convention. This is a pre-requisite to the Cam Government tipping in its' share of loot for its' share of equities. So, if there is an announcement regarding securing a Strategic Partner at the end of July, I suppose it's just possible that the Mbalam Convention could be ratified contemperaneously. (Don't ya love it when a plan comes together?)

3. I figure that Ken Talbots' dollar cost average is more than 45 cents/share, after forking out another $5M. I don't think this man is stupid and will have more information about the future of this company than me. No man is infallible, but I have a gut feeling that this guy, knowing this market, knows exactly what he is doing.

4. There are other plusses, including a possible pellet plant to add value; an increase in high grade DSO; the recent sale of a "comparable in-ground ore resource" in South America for $US1/t, and the very recent incredible opportunity for exposure, through the INDABA Seminar in Beijing, to the worlds' biggest user of IO. 

I feel that the whole project is now a lot more credible and has more credibilty with the folks who will quite possibly be screaming for IO in 18 months time.

I feel that the prediction by a detractor that we would be seeing a price of 5.5 cents in June now has a very remote chance of being correct.


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## fureien (1 May 2009)

you just made me feel alot better lol *holds onto new stocks tightly*

30 cents? i like the sound of threefold ur money


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## Jewels (4 May 2009)

I was at the recent SDL Meeting and thought I'd give you guys a bit of a run down.
Firstly as announced the SPP was successful, so the only motion that required moving for the whole meeting was re Ken Talbot picking up his $5 million worth.  Was this all a ploy for KT to increase his shareholding legally?  Good question, I'm glad you asked.  If so why would somebody kick in $5 million dollars into a 2 bit company with no hope of financing?  Once again, I'm glad you asked.
Not to many people there, about 60 or so (just a guess).
After the chairmans address the whole meeting only took 5 minutes before it was closed.  Then came the interesting bits, question time:
For those of you who know me you'll know that I'm likely to ask the questions that the board don't like to answer. 
My first question was basically pipeline Vs railway.  I was surprised that in a recent article in the AFR that GJ was still courting the idea of a slurry pipeline, espescially considering the proximity of Mbalam t Auora Resources and the many other surrounding tennements.
Basically GJ said that the advantage of a pipeline was a considerably reduced CAPEX and OPEX, when compared to a rail line.  His theory was that SDL could start with a pipe to get cash flow up and running and then once the balance sheet looked a bit stronger move to a rail line.  Of course the downside to this is that steel mills like their DSO dry, so rail is the preferred method for freighting DSO.  Nothing concrete, but I just got the feeling that maybe the railway was being held back as a bit of a bargaining chip, as obviously the Government would much rather a railway was put through the jungle than a single user slurry pipeline.
So after luring GJ into a false sense of security I slapped him between the eyes with the big nasty one.
"Obviously as a shareholder of SDL I am anticipating a further dilution of my shareholding in order to bring the project to fruition.  What level of dilution do you and the board consider acceptable?"
I'm not sure but I thought I saw GJ go weak at the knees:
Now I have to say that GJ handled the question with the aplomb of a John Howard, Wayne Swann or a Bromwyn Bishop.
He started off by dancing to the left,  " When considering the dilution the board has the option of selling off rights to Mbalam only (and then he started a little pirroret to the right) or issuing a considerable tranche of shares in The Company ( I assume that he meant Sundance and not Cam Iron, but I could be wrong).  He then explained that currently the tennements were in 2 differing countries (Cameroon and Congo) and that there were benefits and draw backs to both.  After about five minutes of explaining what we all already know, he then skipped off to the next question, with out actually answering my question and with out looking back.  
So Jewels gets the impression that with the deals already on the desk that I'm going to be dropping my pants and taking a great big black one right up where the sun dont shine.
Now I was also interested to know if Sundance was privy to talks with the IMF, as they only visited Cameroon about 4 weeks ago.
GJ's reply was interesting.  Now remember this with Mbalam only, and with current resources, SDL will be providing about 8% of Cameroons GDP.....
When this project is in full flight we will be* producing up to 20% of Cameroons GDP"*  Whilst Sundance was not involved with talks with the IMF on this occasion, the IMF, World bank, Bank of Africa and the like are  big supporters of Sundance.  They are backing us by making sure that the business process in Cameroon is fair and transperant.  Now I'm paraphrasing this bit, but basically if the Government of Cameroon tries anything Dodgy, then this will severely impede the current process that they have embarked upon with the IMF (ie making their government more trasperant and less corrupt) leading to the IMF and world bank turning off the tap of monetary supply.
Now I wonder if GJ knows something about Cameroons GDP going forward from 2012?   Either the countries oil and gas reserves are all but dried up, or there is a hell of a lot more ore in the ground than the shareholders know about ( and yes I am aware that Mbalam is open at depth and strike.)  I also wonder if GJ was taking into account other mines coming on line between now and 2012 (eg Rio. Auora etc etc.)?  An additional 12% of a countries GDP that has to be a hell of a lot of iron ore doesn't it????
After the meeting closed officially I cornered GJ and asked:
"Obviously you've had several months to consider the Non-binding proposals that you announced to the market in the last quarter of calender 2008, you must have a preferred outcome, how confident are you that you will be able to achieve your preffered outcome?"  (I always try to ask questions of boardmembers that they can answer them without having to run foul of the ASX listing rules <more chance of getting an answer>)
I was very pleased to hear GJ say that negotitions were proceeding as planned and that he was very confident of achieving the desired outcome.  Having said that though, I'm sure if you had of asked Woosha if the Eagles had a chance against Freo on Saturday, I'm sure Woosh would have answered that he also was very confident of achieving the desired outcome.
Something else that seems to have slipped through the cracks is that DL wasnt at the meeting.  When giving appolagies GJ said that DL was in China on SDL business.  Nobody else seems to deem this comment worthy of discussion.  Maybe they are looking at the chinese rights to the "Wok in a Box" franchise or something.
Anyway just thought I'd keep you posted with some informed commentary, as there seems to be a lot of posting by people who have little or no relationship to the company or Cameroon (and hence little or no idea).
And believe it or not English is my first language, I just couldn't be fagged proof reading this dribble and don't have the facility to spell check when writing posts.
Ciao  Jewels


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## The Muffin Man (4 May 2009)

Thanks for the run down Jewels. It's nice to get information from someone that wes present. 

It's also nice to see the board is very confident of achieving their preferred outcome. It gives you the sense that negotiations are going well, or at least that SDL isn't being done over by a larger company / industry group. That the IMF and other groups are actively involved in the area is nice to know. The possible 20% of GDP is a really interesting one, that is a phenominal amount and would surely require an increase in both the iron ore and mine size. I'm thinking this figure would have to be an absolute best case scenario.

As for dilution, I think we all know in some form it's coming, it's the only way the project will get off the ground. I'm expecting a dilution of SDL rather than CamIron, simply because the tenements in the Congo are held by an entity other than CamIron, but is still controlled by SDL. Whoever is contemplating joining the project would want access/ownership to the Congo tenements as well, as it has significant DSO resources and possibly itabirite iron ore beneath that. (similiar to the Mbalam formation)


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## jman2007 (4 May 2009)

Jewels said:


> I was at the recent SDL Meeting and thought I'd give you guys a bit of a run down.
> 
> And believe it or not English is my first language, I just couldn't be fagged proof reading this dribble and don't have the facility to spell check when writing posts. Ciao  Jewels




Thanks for taking the time to fill us in Jewels

Good to know that there are still some shareholders who aren't afraid to punch above their weight


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## bumclouds (4 May 2009)

What do you think about the current price as a possible entry point?

// AJ


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## CarbonSteel (5 May 2009)

Jewels said:


> I was at the recent SDL Meeting and thought I'd give you guys a bit of a run down.




Thanks Jewels for taking the time to relate the contents of this meeting to us and your questions and answers. My general feeling that this company is "coming of age", credibility-wise, is much enhanced by your commentary.


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## Miner (5 May 2009)

Jewels said:


> I was at the recent SDL Meeting and thought I'd give you guys a bit of a run down.
> xxxxxx.
> Ciao  Jewels




Mate

Thanks for your braveness to front a bunch of pseudo crook or less professional board members and then sharing the discussion in ASF.
My commendation to you  as a small share holder (bought at 40 cents with a hope to sell them on a profit or to  win Lotto whatever comes first).
You just showed your name Jewel is really Jewel in the Crown.

Pls keep the good work up


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## The Muffin Man (5 May 2009)

Miner said:


> Mate
> 
> *Thanks for your braveness to front a bunch of pseudo crook or less professional board members* and then sharing the discussion in ASF.
> My commendation to you  as a small share holder (bought at 40 cents with a hope to sell them on a profit or to  win Lotto whatever comes first).
> ...




Can you elaborate Miner? I'm not quite following what you are saying here.

This sentance is to simply to get me over the minimum character count.


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## Sean K (5 May 2009)

bumclouds said:


> What do you think about the current price as a possible entry point?
> 
> // AJ



 

Is it undervalued, or overvalued?
Is it on a downtrend, sidetrend, or uptrend?
What time of the star cycle is it?
What's the future trend of the economy?
What's the outlook for IO?
What's management like?
How's the country risk?
Is entry price important?
etc etc...


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## CarbonSteel (5 May 2009)

bumclouds said:


> What do you think about the current price as a possible entry point?
> 
> // AJ




Today is the best possible day since the beginning of time to buy this stock..... if you think it will improve in price. 

Today is the worst possible day since the beginning of time to buy this stock..... if you think it will decrease in price.

Hope this helps.


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## jman2007 (5 May 2009)

bumclouds said:


> What do you think about the current price as a possible entry point?
> 
> // AJ




bumclouds,

What kennas and Carbonsteel are trying to say is that none of us are allowed to endorse a particular stock and recommend that you buy it outright. That's what makes this site a little different from other stock forums perhaps.

A completely different scenario is one in which you present a case/argument based on your own research and what you know of the stock, kennas' bullet points are a good starting point. If you're still at a loss, there will be some very helpful threads in the beginners forum to point you in the right direction.

Good Luck


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## samt75 (6 May 2009)

I agree with Kennas bullet points it's a pretty good way of looking at getting into a stock. I am a SDL shareholder and I hope this company will do well in the next few years.


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## samt75 (7 May 2009)

They are going for a great run today they have hit 13c. 
They have released a couple of Directors Interest Notices could this be driving the price up?


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## Pythagerous (7 May 2009)

There directors notices where just stating that both the Chairman and CEO took up the $5000 SPP.

Doubt this is the reason why we have seen a spike.


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## jman2007 (7 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> There directors notices where just stating that both the Chairman and CEO took up the $5000 SPP.
> 
> Doubt this is the reason why we have seen a spike.




Agree,

Unlikely to be a small number of shares taken up by the Directors.

I am generally very suspicious of intraday tarding in SDL atm, there have been a number of days within the last 2-3 weeks where it has gone on a small run only to be sold down towards the end of the day.

Happy to proved wrong however.


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## Jewels (7 May 2009)

Whilst SDL has been getting sold down of late it would appear that over the past 4 to 6 weeks somebody (BBY perhapps) have picked up the ball and began to run with it.  Whilst I have no doubt at all that we will see 8 to 8.5 cents again before we see 20cents, it looks like the general trend is up.
Remember GJ is expecting to announce offtake and financing arrangements in the June quarter, and once these announcements are made we should see a substantial re rating of the stock.
At current market cap I think the market is valuing SDL's Iron ore (in the ground that we know about) at less than 10 cents per tonne.  Look at the aeromags, Mt Nabeeba is going to be at least the same size as Mbalam, and what about the congo?  Realistically (and please don't accuse me of ramping)  SDL could be sitting on 500% more ore than we already know about. (Check out the aeromags of the Congo for yourself and see what I'm talking about).
Once the ore is on the ship it will be worth $20/tonne to SDL.  You do the maths.
It may go down to 8 cents again between now and June (personally I hope it does so that I can pick up some more) but I have no doubt the long term prospects for SDL are nothing short of sensational.
Beware though this is still a speccy stock and a political coup or change of government in Cameroon could see your investment in SDL evaporate.
Ciao......Jewels.


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## CarbonSteel (7 May 2009)

I wonder if we're going to see a "Response to Query from ASX" here shortly?

I think I know what the answers will be.....

Answer to Q1. - No
Answer to Q2.  - N/A
Answer to Q3.  - Don't know, just good luck I guess
Answer to Q4.  - Coulda' happenend to anyone
Answer to Q5. - Would ASX like to buy some?

We deny any and all allegations and suggestions. If you think there's some insider stuff happening... Go ahead... prove it!:


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## studmuffin (7 May 2009)

Trading Halt requested pending upgrade in classification of resources at Mbalam. 
Funny, how many shares changed hands today?..


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## jman2007 (7 May 2009)

studmuffin said:


> Trading Halt requested pending upgrade in classification of resources at Mbalam.
> Funny, how many shares changed hands today?..




Always the way, the Directors mates are always the first to hear about it, and then the poor shareholders... the pecking order of life unfortunately. 

On the other hand, SDL haven't been in a trading halt for a very long time. If it is a substansial resource upgrade, then this could really light a fire under the sp. Whether it be an increase in quality or quantity of the resource, this hopefully won't be lost on pontential partners and financiers - still a long way off in that regard imo however.


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## Jewels (7 May 2009)

Hey Bumclouds,

In answering your question, it looks like a sensational entry point!!
I guess the tension will build until the upgrade for Mbalam.
Remember this is an upgrade for *Mbalam only*, there are still all the rest of the tennaments to add to this, remembering Nabeba is likley to be at least the same size.
But going on recent announcements you would almost certainly expect the share price to fall after the announcement.  Buy on rumour, sell on fact.

I'm wondering if there is likely to be an increase in DSO, if there is that could only be good for the share price.

We know we have a lot of ore, I guess the next big question is what sought of dilution factor do we need to do the deal?

Heres hoping fellow SDLers.
Ciao Jewels


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## The Muffin Man (7 May 2009)

Upgrade in the classification of resources at Mbalam. Could that possibly mean an upgare in the JORC term used to describe the resource? (Inferred, indicated, measured etc)

Unusual to go into a trading halt for an increase in resources, many of the previous resource upgrades haven't required trading halts.

I'm excited haha!


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## Pythagerous (8 May 2009)

Although I would imagine that everyone was hoping that it would be an announcement in regards to finance, I think an announcement on a resource upgrade is potentially alot better news.

The Mbalam project is already considered to be one of the worlds largest, any upgrade in resource that requires a trading halt must be quite significant.

A significant increase in resources at this stage, will increase the attractiveness of the project to potential investors, and it will also increase SDL's bargaining power in order to search for the best deal.

Although it would have been great to get news on finance, I think that this announcement is going to make it all the more sweeter when finance is actually announced.


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## The Muffin Man (8 May 2009)

I'm a little conerned that many are thinking the announcement will be an upgrade in resource levels. It could well be, but the wording of the announcement might suggest differently;

"Upgrade in the *classification* of resources"

Wouldn't the classification of resources have to do with the JORC tag applied to the resources?


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## jonojpsg (8 May 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> I'm a little conerned that many are thinking the announcement will be an upgrade in resource levels. It could well be, but the wording of the announcement might suggest differently;
> 
> "Upgrade in the *classification* of resources"
> 
> Wouldn't the classification of resources have to do with the JORC tag applied to the resources?




One would imagine so; however, with the current resource base consisting of *only* inferred tonnages, a shift towards indicated and measured is essential for achieving financing and partners IMO.


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## The Muffin Man (8 May 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> One would imagine so; however, with the current resource base consisting of *only* inferred tonnages, a shift towards indicated and measured is essential for achieving financing and partners IMO.




Without a doubt, getting the resource to measured may even be conditions before a deal is struck, I'm just suggesting we shouldn't be expecting monumental increases in the actual resource.


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## jman2007 (8 May 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> I'm a little conerned that many are thinking the announcement will be an upgrade in resource levels. It could well be, but the wording of the announcement might suggest differently;
> 
> "Upgrade in the *classification* of resources"
> 
> Wouldn't the classification of resources have to do with the JORC tag applied to the resources?




Yes, you are correct Muffin, good spotting. 

That's the word used in the ann, I should have paid more attention to it myself . This terminology used in the ann itself shouldn't be concerning, as conversion of Inferred Resouces to Indicated and Measured status is a requirement for the eventual estimation of Ore Reserves - which I stress will still be a long way off. Only Indicated and/or Measured Resources can be converted to Ore Reserves, but never Inferred Resources.

Generally when a company talks about drilling "extensions along strike", or "down-dip" extensions etc they are trying to increase the overall tonnage of the resource. When they talk about "infill" or "resource" drilling, they are not aiming to add substansial tonnage, but rather trying to increase the confidence in the resource using the three JORC qualifiers (Inferred, Indicated, Measured etc). 

Cheers!


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## sw3 (8 May 2009)

Has anyone noticed an upsurge in the bid price and a drop in the sell price (30,000 @ 0.265cps and 16799 @ 0.06cps? Although the actual volume is quite low, does anyone think that this is an attempt to ramp? Or perhaps someone's attempt to offload at an average price of approx 0.16cps ahead of the competition?


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## Jewels (8 May 2009)

Hi Team,
For what it's worth I think that I may have been a little excited about the trading halt.
Now that I've had a bit of time to mull it over, here's my 2 cents worth.
Remember a couple of weeks or so ago when the ASX gave SDL a speading ticket and their reply was that there was nothing that they were aware of  that should effect the share price?  Then the very next day released the "Target" for Mt Nabeaba?  Well DL got a bit of a rap over the knuckles from the ASX.  He weezled out of it by saying that as it was only a target that they didn't think that it was price sensitive.  Now believe me there would have been a lot more that went on behind closed doors than what we were able to read on the ASX website.
I think that what we are about to see on Tuesday (if not before) is that our resource will move one rung up the JORC compliance ladder.  After what I am sure was a very stern warning from the ASX, and given the volume of shares traded in the last week, along with the movement in shareprice, DL just didn't want to run foul of the ASX authorities.  So to play it safe and to prevent the hysteria going on for another couple of days (and possibly seeing the shareprice at 15+ cents) SDL have requested a trading halt to prevent the newcommers to SDL from getting burnt.
However there is one thing that sticks in my mind.  GJ at the Perth meeting saying that "when this thing is in full flight it will provide 20% of Cameroons GDP".  That is a huge statement to make, and I am sure it would have been intentional, not just an off the cuff comment.
Anyway have a good weekend all, Jewels is off to pick up his new surfboard and head north for a few days to get to know her better.
Ciao....J


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## CarbonSteel (9 May 2009)

Looks like you nailed it Jewels...

From the West Australian - Saturday...



> Shares in Sundance Resources were in a trading halt today pending an announcement about a resource upgrade at its flagship Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon.
> 
> The company called the halt following a query from the Australian Securities Exchange about its share price, which leapt from 10.5 cents on Wednesday to 13.5 cents yesterday.
> 
> ...




This sentence will hopefully get me over the 100 character limit.


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## Pythagerous (11 May 2009)

Announcement has been made, and the stock opened at 13.5c

Interesting to see what happens with the share price today.


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## RP_Automotive (11 May 2009)

IMo this is yet another example of how the Sundance management are working extremely well, always moving in the right direction and 'ticking the boxes' for the shareholder. I really look forward to the years to come...and I'll see the rest of you faithful shareholders on the beach in the Bahamas in a few years.


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## prawn_86 (11 May 2009)

RP_Automotive said:


> IMo this is yet another example of how the Sundance management are working extremely well, always moving in the right direction and 'ticking the boxes' for the shareholder. I really look forward to the years to come...and I'll see the rest of you faithful shareholders on the beach in the Bahamas in a few years.






samt75 said:


> I think this company will reward it's long term shareholders very well in the future.
> I just hope you are right RP_Automotive I would love to retire at a young age.




Guys,

If you have a read of the site guidelines, you will see that you MUST provide details/evidence of why you think the share price will do well. Simply saying so will not suffice and your posts will be removed in the future.

Thanks

Prawn


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## Jewels (14 May 2009)

Back down to 13.5 cents at close today.  I think that short of any major announcements we are likely to see the share price decline over the comming weeks, the question is will we see sub 9 cents again?
Okay experts, what's your guess?  I need to buy some more what price do you think I will be able to get them at?


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## CarbonSteel (14 May 2009)

Jewels said:


> Back down to 13.5 cents at close today.  I think that short of any major announcements we are likely to see the share price decline over the comming weeks, the question is will we see sub 9 cents again?




My view is that it should not be forgotten that the drop to 13.5 cents is possibly related to market sentiment today, rather than investors punishing SDL for whatever reason. XMJ down 6.5% today. That's a large one-day fall. Maybe it is just SDL following the market in general?


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## The Muffin Man (14 May 2009)

If announcements dry up and some of the attention moves away from Sundance, I think we could see a gradual retrace. This isn't all bad news though, as it will provide further buying opportunities.

I also think Carbon Steel's assessment of today's heavy drop is spot on, it was based around general market sentiment.


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## DowJones (14 May 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> My view is that it should not be forgotten that the drop to 13.5 cents is possibly related to market sentiment today, rather than investors punishing SDL for whatever reason. XMJ down 6.5% today. That's a large one-day fall. Maybe it is just SDL following the market in general?




Sundance has had a torrid run lately from 7.x cents to 15.5 cents recently. People are sitting  on profits and want to lock it in, include those that participated in the Share Purchase Plan at 8 cents. It was a carnage in the market today to say the least, unnerving investors.

The stock price has shown to respond to news then recede later on as if it never occurred. It suffers from a ebb and flow effect which I feel some people range trading it.

I believe it is best to think of Sundance as a long term stock.

As Buffet says - the market is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.


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## CarbonSteel (15 May 2009)

DowJones said:


> As Buffet says - the market is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.




I haven't read this particular Buffet quote before, and although it looks and sounds like a simplistic way to describe this phenomenon, I think it is very accurate.


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## CarbonSteel (17 May 2009)

From "Seeking Alpha" Website




> The Baltic Dry Index is setting new highs for the year. This measure of freight shipping costs has often been used as an early indicator in the economy. Because of the global nature of shipping, this index may give a broad take on global economic health but is a less reliable indicator of any specific nation’s economy, particularly a service economy like the U.S. It is thought that much of the rebound in the index is related to Chinese demand for iron ore, and has less direct bearing on our markets.




Go here to read the full article....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/137819-baltic-dry-index-signals-commodity-inflation


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## fureien (18 May 2009)

shareprice dipped to 0.11 today
its a bit unnerving cause i already suffered a 40% loss on BBI>< i hope sdl doesnt follow cause i actually planned to hold long term with this one


----------



## Singapore_Sling (21 May 2009)

* China to receive 200,000 barrels per day of oil
* Petrobras needs funds to develop costly sub-sea reserves
* Similar deal previously signed between China and Russia

BEIJING, May 19 (Reuters) - China agreed to lend $10 billion to Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA)(PBR.N) in return for guaranteed oil supply over the next decade, in a deal cemented on Tuesday as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ended a state visit.

--------------

I know, not really related to SDL - but I love these news...keeps me dreaming of better days to come...


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## The Muffin Man (26 May 2009)

Hi all. I just wanted to make the comment that it is encouraging to see the share price hold comfortably above 10c after the run to 14c. I expected a retrace, but to be honest it's holding better than I thought, which is even more positive considering the low volume of shares traded in the past few weeks. I would have thought that the lower volume traded would have meant sellers pushing down the price further, but so far this hasn't occured. The next week or two will be interesting to see whether the 11.5-12c mark stays in tact.


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## fureien (26 May 2009)

yeh you're right. several times i considered selling out at 13 cents which has been the resistance the past few days and trading it back in at 10.5
but i decided to hold and its held out well. definitely a long term hold for me


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## talktome (1 June 2009)

Subject - Future Dividend

I know the topic of this thread may not be addressed for quite some time to come, but has anybody come across any talk of a future dividend? I haven't been able to find anything to insinuate that.

The reason I ask is that a dividend would be highly attractive to investors as opposed to just share price growth. I know I would want that and am sure that others would too. 

It makes good investment sense as an investor to invest in a company that will share its future earnings instead of just capital appreciation of its share price.

Any thoughts among the wiser heads amongst us?

talktome

PS. Before someone jumps the gun here, please note that I am well aware what a dividend is and that SDL will probably not be in the position to offer some of its earnings untill years after the first shipment.


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## prawn_86 (1 June 2009)

talktome said:


> PS. Before someone jumps the gun here, please note that I am well aware what a dividend is and that SDL will probably not be in the position to offer some of its earnings untill years after the first shipment.




So why ask if you know its impossible to predict  Depends on the resource, the costs, the IO price etc etc etc


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## jonojpsg (1 June 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> So why ask if you know its impossible to predict  Depends on the resource, the costs, the IO price etc etc etc




Don't be silly Prawn, I've got a contact on the inside who assures me that a 20c a share dividend will be paid as of 2010/11


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## Singapore_Sling (1 June 2009)

Hello,

I am definetly not among the "wiser heads" here, but I know how to use the internet - and am a kind person in general; therefore one can find the results of my quick&dirty websearch. We can't predict, but at least we can check what their competitors payout...   

Annual dividends 2008 of the companies that are mentioned in the Sundance PPT, Slide 8 (Latests Presentation under http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/ ) 

Rio Tinto 136 US Cent
Anglo 80 US Cent
MMX 0 US Cent
Vale 68 US Cent
BHP Billiton 70 US


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## stocksontheblock (2 June 2009)

Hi all, I have quite a few shares in SDL, thinking that in 3 to 5 yrs they will be worth a fortune, ha! Yet I wanted to ask, and it might have been addressed somewhere way back in this thread, yet does SDL have the resources, and hopefully soon the means, to be a BIG company?

I am thinking of stocks like FMG, traded at next to nothing for years then hit the big time with big stock prices, does it look like SDL has the same potential? I think it does from the little research I have done, yet then again I am wondering if they ever get to $1 bail out and take a lot of money and run, or do you think that these guys will be in the $5 to $8 range?

Thanks


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## fureien (2 June 2009)

thats hard to say at this early stage in the game stocksontheblock
it all depends on business of course. ive seen alot of similar companys still below $1

but then again SDL looks great, prob can hit $1 easily. but ud have to wait a coupla years at least.
i mean if it was that certain u will 10X ur money in 3-5 years. id sell my house, car and my sister and invest it in sdl nahwatimsayin?



> The reason I ask is that a dividend would be highly attractive to investors as opposed to just share price growth. I know I would want that and am sure that others would too.





in regards to the dividend question. this is actually a highly academically debated issue, regarding dividends, basically some argue that paying out dividends is good as opposed to capital growth. i wont go into detail, but in regards to capital growth. if you take companies liek microsoft. they didnt pay dividends for ages, and SHers had faith in them and relied on capital growth, and the company did very well cause no dividends means more money to use.

but take companies like telstra, who pay huge dividends, the sp is low and the company is a mess.


that being said theres of course the issue of, having too much money in the bank for the directors to play with to the extent to which they dont spend it wisely. as opposed to having limited cash where they have to carefully decide how to spend it


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## Pythagerous (2 June 2009)

G'day Sundancers

I am a bit out of my depth here, but I thought I would have a go at trying to do some analysis and financial forecasting based on the figures that Sundance have reported, in order to try and work out what sums potential Chinese Investors might be crunching.


*CAPEX*

Back in 2008, SDL reported that CAPEX was going to be US$3,277m. This was made up of:

$375m - Mining & Plant
$1,423 - Rail
$529m - Port
$442 - Indirects
$508 - Contingency

This was reported back in January 2008, so surely there would be some changes from the amounts reported back then. It has been suggested that the CAPEX is going to be lower then what was originally reported, due to cost sharing. Can anyone provide any evidence about the CAPEX being lower, and what reductions there may be?



*OPEX*

The latest presentation States that the latest FOB price (60%) is $US63.83/t and the estimated production cost was $US19.65 per tonne, so the operating margin would be $44.18/t

FOB Price: US$63.83/t
Production Cost: US$19.65/t
Operation Margin: US$44.18/t

These are estimated figures from 2008. Does anyone have an idea whether production costs are likely to be up or down on these figures, and whether the FOB price is likely to be up or down?



*RESOURCE*

The latest presentation suggest the following:

- Prodcution of 35 - 50 tonnes
- A total of 2540MT (215@60% and 2,325@38%)
- A minimum mine life of 20 years.

Is anyone able to confirm whether the maximum production rate will be 50 tonnes per year, or could it be higher. Also, is 2540MT the maximum, or does SDL have the potential to have a lot more then that.

Just a quick point, if you divide 2540MT by 50MTPA, that equates to over 50 years. If you divide 2540 by 20 years, that gives you 127MTPA.

Looking a bit deeper, if we assume they produce 50MTPA at an operating margin of $44.18, in their first year of operation, they are going to recoup $2,209m of their projected CAPEX which is $3,277m, which is nealry 70% of the CAPEX.

If we look at the $44.18pt operating margin against the 2540mt that have got, that is total of $112Billion, which makes the $3.2B look like Chicken Feed.



As i said before, I am a bit out of my depth, so if anyone is able to confirm, correct or add too any of my workings, it would be much appreciated.


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## LRG (3 June 2009)

SDL is in the league of FMG - 8 cents to $10+ then down again.

or MCC $3-4 2 years ago up to $20 when Talbot sold, then down to $4 again.

IMO when they sign up funding the sp will eclipse $1. Remember 18 mths ago it was in the 80 cents.

My long term view is $10-15 by 2013/14 - another FMG, then get out as it will pull back.

Unless there is significant dilution when funding partner is found.


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## quinn123 (4 June 2009)

With a mining share of this nature, when do you think the share price will reach its peak? (if assuming all future targets go to plan e.g. finance, construction & production) Will the share price reach its peak when financing is approved?  Or when constuction of mine occurs?  Or do you believe a couple of years after production? Are there any similar shares that you could compare Sundance Resources to in terms of share price history?  Thanks!


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## Miner (4 June 2009)

LRG said:


> SDL is in the league of FMG - 8 cents to $10+ then down again.
> 
> or MCC $3-4 2 years ago up to $20 when Talbot sold, then down to $4 again.
> 
> ...




Hi LRG

THanks for your foresightness comments.

Could you please provide some meat on your commentary how you SDL equated to FMG and the predictive value ? It is important also to disclose your interest on holding (Yes I do hold FMG  and SDL) 

Otherwise please give me six numbers commencing from 1 to 45 

Seriously friend as I have noticed earlier the modertors flaked people for similar evaluation without any sound basis.My 

Regards


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## sw3 (4 June 2009)

So I found this article this morning and thought it wa relevant to SDL's operations in Cameroon. I note they say Rio is looking at northern Congo (near the border with Cameroon perhaps?).

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25585018-5005200,00.html


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## quinn123 (5 June 2009)

Just thought I would post the possible reason for today’s increase in share price and volume.

Taken from BHP forum

*Kennas:*
Press release

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton announce West Australian Iron Ore Production Joint Venture
5 June 2009

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton today signed a non-binding agreement to establish a production joint venture covering the entirety of both companies’ Western Australian iron ore assets. The joint venture will encompass all current and future Western Australian iron ore assets and liabilities and will be owned 50:50 by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

The joint venture is expected to unlock significant value from the companies’ overlapping, world-class resources. Both companies believe the net present value of these unique production and development synergies will be in excess of US$10 billion (100 per cent basis). These substantial synergies are anticipated to come from:

• Combining adjacent mines into single operations;
• Reducing costs through shorter rail hauls and more efficient allocations of port capacity;
• Blending opportunities which will maximise product recovery and provide further operating efficiencies;
• Optimising future growth opportunities through the development of consolidated, larger and more capital efficient expansion projects;
• Combining the management, procurement and general overhead activities into a single entity.
Bad news for the juniors maybe. Or, maybe not.  

*Absolutely:*
Gotta be good for juniors. Chinese will want to invest in startups to create new competition ASAP.

I hope anyway.

*Do you think this is good news for SDL?*


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## Lucky_Country (5 June 2009)

I would say this deal gives SDL the upper hand in any JV deal that maybe on the cards.

WA IO is world class resourses and the Chinese or any other interested party will now have to develop their own and SDL is a company that owns some world class ground.


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## LRG (5 June 2009)

So as a comparison FMG went from around 8 cents in July-Sep 2005 up to a high over $12 in June-Jul 2008 then dropped like a school case to $2 in Dec/Jan 2008 early 09.  Note the high was just before or just at commencement of production.

SDL has I belive a better ratio of Share No.'s to estimated IO Qty's (unless there is significant dilution when a funding partner is found). Remember funding partner is due by end of this month according to the presentations???

So, the precedent is there 8c to $12 in 3 years.

My calcs are $10-15 by 2013/14 - I may be wrong or right - but it is possible and it could be more or less - obviously.

What does it matter how many I have?  Lots in mu mind, in someone elses maybe little?  Evertime i get spare cah I buy more.  Wish they hadn't moved so quickly from 7c to 15c in the last few months (can only get half as many with same $'s.

IMO SDL holders are sitting on a gold mine - be patient - the deal will come off - I doubt by end of month, but likely by end of year.  I predict this will create a jump in SP to around $1, then there should we whipsawing as the infrastructure is built - but in an upward trend.  If it hits $10 just before actual first shipment, I will sell most off, cause like FMG it may have a significant pull back at that point.  But until we get there, gauge the economy etc - can't really predict that replication of FMG. 

PS hope i am correct - only history will tell, i don't have a crystal ball.


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## CarbonSteel (5 June 2009)

LRG said:


> SDL has I belive a better ratio of Share No.'s to estimated IO Qty's (unless there is significant dilution when a funding partner is found). Remember funding partner is due by end of this month according to the presentations???



Quarterly Report given April '09 says...

"Discussions are continuing with selected international parties......Work will continue to focus on these discussions in the June 2009 quarter."

Nowhere does it say, nor is the implication given, that an announcement (regarding a funding partner) will be made by the end of June. Indeed, the Chairman states that funds raised recently will help the company further progress development into 2010. 

I seem to recall George Jones being quoted somewhere as being "very confident" of making an announcement "mid-year". However, this is not a promise or committment and he can't be held to it as far as I'm aware.

Todays Rio/BHP deal could benefit us if end-users don't want to be subjected to oligopoly market conditions. The BIG THREE (if you include Vale) have now become the BIG PRICE-DETERMINING TWO.

I won't argue with your SP forecasts, I just hope your are on the money!


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## happytown (5 June 2009)

LRG said:


> So as a comparison FMG went from around 8 cents in July-Sep 2005 up to a high over $12 in June-Jul 2008 then dropped like a school case to $2 in Dec/Jan 2008 early 09.  Note the high was just before or just at commencement of production.
> 
> ...
> 
> ...




notwithstanding your valuation, some other things that occured during *those* *3 years

*a roaring bull market,
a phenomenal resources boom, and
ever-increasing and historically high fe prices

cheers


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## Pythagerous (5 June 2009)

Here are some patterns between high trade days prior to announcements:

Today - *85,044,553*

7th May - *76,908,220*
7th May - Trading Halt issued at 5pm pending resource Ann.

30th April - *86,495,671*
30th April - Quaterly Report issued at 2.40pm

6th April - *152,699,882*
7th April - Nabeba Exploration Target Increased

In the past year, this is the 4th highest trading day on record.

Can you smell what the rock is cooking!!!


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## fureien (6 June 2009)

the other beauty is, there is so much support. so many buyers want in now lol. its turning into another CVN style stock.


..actually i just had a look at SDL's chart, 15 cents seems to be a resistance point. not a bad time to buy in with all this support and volume

its falsely broken nearly 4 times. combine everything together, and we might see some spectacular sp movements tuesday. that is hoping that day traders aren't stupid enuf to try and take profits so early on. im so glad i held SDL, just wish i bought more.


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## CarbonSteel (7 June 2009)

happytown said:


> notwithstanding your valuation, some other things that occured during *those* *3 years
> 
> *a roaring bull market,
> a phenomenal resources boom, and
> ...




... and there is no evidence to suggest that there will not be another roaring bull market to surpass the last one, or another resources boom to surpass the last one, or that Fe prices will not recover and soar past the last highs. Conversely, the antipathy is also possible.


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## fureien (7 June 2009)

quite correct. it might not happen immediately, but i believe a boom will be inevitable again. basic economics.

plus resources can only get scarcer not more abundant, which would only drive prices up. (and yes i know we arent talking about oil)


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## Pythagerous (10 June 2009)

There appears to be some heavy accumulation, with strong support at the 17.5c mark, on the back of last weeks BHP/RIO news.


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## jay2000 (11 June 2009)

LRG said:


> So as a comparison FMG went from around 8 cents in July-Sep 2005 up to a high over $12 in June-Jul 2008 then dropped like a school case to $2 in Dec/Jan 2008 early 09.  Note the high was just before or just at commencement of production.
> 
> SDL has I belive a better ratio of Share No.'s to estimated IO Qty's (unless there is significant dilution when a funding partner is found). Remember funding partner is due by end of this month according to the presentations???
> 
> ...




Remember Fortescue had a 10 for 1 split so that would have made their SP over $120.00 for original share holders in June, July 2008. At todays price over $40.00 but would also agree with your prediction!


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## Bigben101 (17 June 2009)

The recent comparison of SDL to FMG IMO, is but a faint dream.  This is for a number of reasons outlined below.

1) FMG has 4.5 Billion tonnes of DSO. (60% fe)
2) It's in the heart of the pillbara.
3) It was up until last year going to produce 160 MT Per year.

SDL on the other hand has a number of disadvantages:

1) It's in Africa, a higher perceived risk.
2) It has 2.5 billion tonnes, where only 500 MT is DSO.
3) It may end up with only a 50% stake in CamIron after the financing deal.
4) It's only going to do produce 35 MT a year, with the potential to produce 50MT per year.

I am hoping that SDL will reach xxxxxx, and do agree that SDL is a gold mine.  Lets hope this financing deal gets done already.


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## talktome (17 June 2009)

Very true Bigben101,

There's promise for more resources though. I think.... Some posters believe the resource size could increase 3-5 times by the looks of things on those geology maps.

I'm hoping SDL gets to xxxxx or so but there are many factors that need to come into play to get to that price - resource increase is merely one of them.

Any thoughts out there.....

talktome


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## prawn_86 (18 June 2009)

To all the new members on this thread:

If you are going to post price targets, they must be realistic and supported by some form of analysis, not 'hope'.

*Detailed* fundamentals or technicals are needed if you are suggesting prices many times that of the current price. 

Thanks

Prawn


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## Singapore_Sling (18 June 2009)

*Iron Project 150 km from Mbalam / African Aura*

http://www.african-aura.com/s/NewsR...r-Encouraging-Results-from-Nkout-Iron-Project

I find it quite positive to see that more and more articels report about the Mbalam/SDL Project and the need for a transport system. 
 Shared interests = shared costs???

"_Furthermore, all these areas are located close to the potential rail route between the 2.4 billion tonne Mbalam iron deposit to the southeast, and the proposed deep water port at Kribi on the Atlantic coast_."

"_The sub-region hosts a number of significant iron deposits which are currently under exploration and development including the 2.4 billion tonne Mbalam deposit which is under development by Sundance Resources Limited and located approximately 150km southeast of Nkout. _"


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## jonojpsg (18 June 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> To all the new members on this thread:
> 
> If you are going to post price targets, they must be realistic and supported by some form of analysis, not 'hope'.
> 
> ...




I'm assuming since my last post asking the question whether $x is a price target was deleted that $x is regarded as a price target and that we should justify our target of $x as being made up of $y revenue generated from z Mt pa production at $q per tonne cash cost and $r overheads


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## prawn_86 (18 June 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> I'm assuming since my last post asking the question whether $x is a price target was deleted that $x is regarded as a price target and that we should justify our target of $x as being made up of $y revenue generated from z Mt pa production at $q per tonne cash cost and $r overheads




The 'x' was added in by myself, as i felt the post had value, but the price target was not justified based on that posts value alone.

If you are going to say a stock is going to be many multiples of its current price you need to have a lot of detail, and yes assumptions of IO price (for example) are fine, providing your reasoning for those assumptions are stated. IE - saying I assume IO will be $1000 per tonne, without a realistic explanation as to why, is not enough detail for valuations many times the current price.

Hope that makes sense.

If in doubt have a read of the 'posting guidelines'


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## CarbonSteel (19 June 2009)

From Bloomberg 19/06/09...


> Some factory producers are preparing for better times. Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by sales, is recalling nearly 800 laid-off workers to restart coke production in the Canadian province of Ontario and a blast furnace in Illinois, union spokesmen Dave Dowling and Rolf Gerstenberger said in separate interviews this week.




The much talked about green shoots beginning to appear in the behemoth U.S. iron and steel sector?


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## jonojpsg (19 June 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> The 'x' was added in by myself, as i felt the post had value, but the price target was not justified based on that posts value alone.
> 
> If you are going to say a stock is going to be many multiples of its current price you need to have a lot of detail, and yes assumptions of IO price (for example) are fine, providing your reasoning for those assumptions are stated. IE - saying I assume IO will be $1000 per tonne, without a realistic explanation as to why, is not enough detail for valuations many times the current price.
> 
> ...




Sorry prawn, my bad, i completely missed your edits on those posts

.........................................................


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## CarbonSteel (21 June 2009)

From...

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/...eroon-infrastructure-report-q2-2009-84494.asp




> Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q2 2009 (Business Monitor International)
> Market: Construction
> Published Date: 21/05/2009
> Report Title: Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q2 2009
> ...




So it appears that SDL and therefore we shareholders are REALLY pioneers. It seems to me, looking back at history, that pioneers either do very well or very badly. Fingers crossed for the former!


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## Miner (21 June 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> From...
> 
> http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/...eroon-infrastructure-report-q2-2009-84494.asp
> 
> ...




Good note Carbon Steel
The last line of the report was interesting about GDP for Cameron to fall from about 4 to 2.4 %. 

I hope this does not reflect into SDL performance to be forced into category two ( I do want SDL to be number one category).

Let us see what happens in next 6 months considering the GFC will be slowly be rising better than now

Disclaimer : I do hold SDL


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## LRG (2 July 2009)

Hello all,

I hope there is some news forthcoming from SDL management soon!

The last market presentation May 2009 still showed on the gragh time line the following major milestone aims:

- Identify strategic offtakers/pertners by end June 2009 (i.e. NOW)
- Project Financing by end Dec 2009
- Start construction Jan 2010.

We need the first milestone to happen soon in order to see the SP rise significantly.  It is stuck in the 15-20 cent range until we get the news.

Anyone heard anything?


----------



## jonojpsg (2 July 2009)

LRG said:


> Hello all,
> 
> I hope there is some news forthcoming from SDL management soon!
> 
> ...




Mate if anyone had heard anything, the SP would have moved based on their previous performance!  Definitely looking forward to those offtake/JV partners though - should send SP up significantly IMO.


----------



## munga (2 July 2009)

LRG said:


> Hello all,
> 
> I hope there is some news forthcoming from SDL management soon!
> 
> ...




i think jones is bedding down gindalbie first then he will move on with sundance. was in china recently with gindalbie hat on but expect he would of included sun in discussions


----------



## RP_Automotive (3 July 2009)

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true

Doesn't look like Jones will be doing anything now....but Mr Wedlock looks like a great candidate. Not that anyone involved in IO wouldn't have experience in these areas...but its a good sign.



> Mr Wedlock brings more than 40 years experience in the mining industry to his new role. His previous positions include Executive Vice President and CEO of BHP Iron Ore, where he was directly involved in the development of four iron ore mines, upgrades of two ports and two railways, and the development of iron ore processing operations.


----------



## LRG (3 July 2009)

Hope George Jones retirement does not cause too much of a hiccup.

Further to my previous post I hope there is investment partners announced soon.

Buy the way it would be impossible for construction to commmnece Jan 2010 - only six months from now.  Being in the construction industry, even with an alliance of designers and constructor appointed to fast track the procees - it would be a minimum of 12 months from appointing a D & C before you would see construction begin of infrastructure.  As far as I am aware no one has been appointed and design is not underway.

I think the timeline is 1 year too optimistic at this stage.

Bring on some good news please SDL :


----------



## fureien (6 July 2009)

sdl dipped below our 15c support. im a bit worried. i had my hand itch over the sell button today. i really dont want to but ive been watching every other stock on my portfolio dip down into my initial buy price.

is it just market sentiment driving it down or just simply lack of activity with the company for there to be any reason keeping it up?


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## wbosher (7 July 2009)

I'm in the same boat, very reluctant to sell in case it goes back up. I see the the DOW closed up a little this morning, maybe that might be reflected on the ASX. I live in hope...


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## evas34 (7 July 2009)

I sold SDL two months ago at the current price level, I miss the 0.18, but I am not going to buy back in this stock in the near future as there is no sign of partner get involved in the project. 

Wonder if you guys notice there was a huge Iron ore mine was discovered in the northern China just a week ago, it was said the biggest iron ore mine in all Aisa, with three billion ton of ore to be mined. The estimated production begin 2015, with 50 million estimated annual production. The news is all over the Chinese media at the moment, I couldn't find any English news in regards to that. 

If this mine is confirmed commercially viable, I think SDL would be hard to find Chinese partner involved. 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20090629/05146411082.shtml

This pages was written by Chinese


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## fureien (7 July 2009)

i think im going to sell SDL

a couple of charting indicators are telling me to let it go

but im gunna keep an eye on it for buy in chances


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## Miner (7 July 2009)

fureien said:


> i think im going to sell SDL
> 
> a couple of charting indicators are telling me to let it go
> 
> but im gunna keep an eye on it for buy in chances




Thanks for your post Fureien

If I am posting a similar comments then I will add the follownig :

What are those couple of points in charting and share
Declare my interest if I am holding or not
Also I would get a step ahead to tell that I am not ramping up or down to create opportunities
for me to sell or buy for more transparency.

But you are not me so leaving it to you to provide more details to support  your statement
Disclaimer : I do hold SDL

Regards


----------



## quinn123 (7 July 2009)

evas34 said:


> I sold SDL two months ago at the current price level, I miss the 0.18, but I am not going to buy back in this stock in the near future as there is no sign of partner get involved in the project.
> 
> Wonder if you guys notice there was a huge Iron ore mine was discovered in the northern China just a week ago, it was said the biggest iron ore mine in all Aisa, with three billion ton of ore to be mined. The estimated production begin 2015, with 50 million estimated annual production. The news is all over the Chinese media at the moment, I couldn't find any English news in regards to that.
> 
> ...




You do realize that Iron ore deposit is located 1.2km underground...  It would be cheaper to mine the billions of tons of iron ore at near surface still available on the earth and transport it to China.  <-- This is an educated guess with my limited knowledge of the basic economics of iron ore mining. 

IMO the potential of an announcement regarding finance outweighs the negatives of a possible retrace in the near term (I have an average of 8.8c share) 

I still hold SDL..


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## bobdog (7 July 2009)

a bit of info about the mine in china she is deep alright.

Benxi - A huge iron ore resource with more than three billion tons’ of proven reserves has been found in China's Benxi, Benxi Municipal Government said on Tuesday, making it one of the biggest iron ore mines in Asia.

It’s reported that this iron was found during the second exploration of the city, which is based on the city's fifteen years of geological data. After it was reported to the China Geological Survey, it was perambulated by a team of geologists.

The team made 17 exploratory holes to explore the mine. Iron ore was found in 12 of the holes, covering an area of four kilometers long, three kilometers wide.

According to antecedent survey, a complete core of iron ore has been detected 1,100 to 1860 meters. High-grade resources can even be found underground 2015 meters. The bottom and border zones haven’t been reached, said the team. The identified reserves available are more than three billion tons.

Meanwhile, the Dataigou mine has features of deep-buried depth, wide-spread ore body, steep obliquity and big scale of ore body. The iron deposit is a giant mixture of magnetite and hematite, with iron ore grade between 25% to 62%.

Shaoshi Xu, head of Minister of Land and Resources, paid a site visit there, urging the local government to do their best to make full use of Asia's largest iron ore mine for the nation and local as soon as possible.


----------



## bowman (7 July 2009)

Here's one short term TA scenario, with a couple of possible turning points circled - if the trend channels play out.

I grabbed a few this morning to put my toe in the water, but this is just for a quick trade.

I'll be watching for trading opportunities within these channels but a drop through 12.5c would be a bit of a worry.


----------



## Miner (7 July 2009)

evas34 said:


> I sold SDL two months ago at the current price level, I miss the 0.18, but I am not going to buy back in this stock in the near future as there is no sign of partner get involved in the project.
> 
> Wonder if you guys notice there was a huge Iron ore mine was discovered in the northern China just a week ago, it was said the biggest iron ore mine in all Aisa, with three billion ton of ore to be mined. The estimated production begin 2015, with 50 million estimated annual production. The news is all over the Chinese media at the moment, I couldn't find any English news in regards to that.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the posting
Here goes the English translation _(even if Mandarin is reportedly is the language spoken by most people world wide I do not read, speak or write Chinese - thanks to one of my colleagues who translated it for me )_Chinese found a largest iron ore mine in north east china:


" Asia’s biggest iron ore mine found in Benxi ChinaFont Scale Benxi - A huge iron ore resource with more than three billion tons’ of proven reserves has been found in China's Benxi, Benxi Municipal Government said on Tuesday, making it one of the biggest iron ore mines in Asia.

It’s reported that this iron was found during the second exploration of the city, which is based on the city's fifteen years of geological data. After it was reported to the China Geological Survey, it was perambulated by a team of geologists.

The team made 17 exploratory holes to explore the mine. Iron ore was found in 12 of the holes, covering an area of four kilometers long, three kilometers wide.

According to antecedent survey, a complete core of iron ore has been detected 1,100 to 1860 meters. High-grade resources can even be found underground 2015 meters. The bottom and border zones haven’t been reached, said the team. The identified reserves available are more than three billion tons.

Meanwhile, the Dataigou mine has features of deep-buried depth, wide-spread ore body, steep obliquity and big scale of ore body. The iron deposit is a giant mixture of magnetite and hematite, with iron ore grade between 25% to 62%.

Shaoshi Xu, head of Minister of Land and Resources, paid a site visit there, urging the local government to do their best to make full use of Asia's largest iron ore mine for the nation and local as soon as possible.
Asia’s biggest iron ore mine found in Benxi ChinaFont Scale: 23 June 2009 @ 01:03 pm ET Print  E-Mail 
Benxi - A huge iron ore resource with more than three billion tons’ of proven reserves has been found in China's Benxi, Benxi Municipal Government said on Tuesday, making it one of the biggest iron ore mines in Asia.

It’s reported that this iron was found during the second exploration of the city, which is based on the city's fifteen years of geological data. After it was reported to the China Geological Survey, it was perambulated by a team of geologists.

The team made 17 exploratory holes to explore the mine. Iron ore was found in 12 of the holes, covering an area of four kilometers long, three kilometers wide.

According to antecedent survey, *a complete core of iron ore has been detected 1,100 to 1860 meters. High-grade resources can even be found underground 2015 meters. *The bottom and border zones haven’t been reached, said the team. The identified reserves available are more than three billion tons.

Meanwhile, the Dataigou mine has features of deep-buried depth, wide-spread ore body, steep obliquity and big scale of ore body. The iron deposit is a giant mixture of magnetite and hematite, with iron ore grade between 25% to 62%.

Shaoshi Xu, head of Minister of Land and Resources, paid a site visit there, urging the local government to do their best to make full use of Asia's largest iron ore mine for the nation and local as soon as possible." 

My comment is however going *2015 meters below ground to search *for high grade resources is not an economical proposition. They still shoudl come to Australia for our good quality iron ore (money for all of us then in share prices)


----------



## jay2000 (8 July 2009)

Another iron ore mine in the making is African Aura Resources, listed on the Toronto Stock Exhange.   (AAZ)              "The Company considers that the combined dimensions of Nkout, Ngoa and
Akom represent potentially significant iron ore deposits. The sub-region hosts
a number of sunstantial iron deposits which are currently under exploration
and development including the Mbalam deposit located approximately 150km
southeast of Nkout and which is under development by Sundance Resources
Limited."    More interest in Cameroon, everyone will need a railway and a port one day!


----------



## fureien (9 July 2009)

Miner said:


> Thanks for your post Fureien
> 
> If I am posting a similar comments then I will add the follownig :
> 
> ...




oops sorry,

i hold sdl, not that much, wish i held more but i am not ramping or anything. i think someone mentioned before that suggesting ramping is ridiculous since the asf population is only an insignificant portion of the total market participants.

anyway, the indicators i was looking at were MACD and the the volume and there being twice as many sellers than buyers. the dilemma i am having though right now is that the price dropped too fast. its fallen past about 2 potential support points. the next support level is my entry price around 10 - 11 cents. if it drops that far its likely to make a recovery and theres more reason for me to buy back in than to sell obviously. feels frustrating that i wasted a few months holding it only for it to fall back to entry price.

that being said if u look at this week alone it seems to have made a bit of recovery, but ive seen this pattern too many times and usually the next few days the buying power just runs out of grunt and the sp falls. false recovery or something.

theres too much conflicting information. i have a sell order at 15 cents stop at 13.5 cents


----------



## happytown (9 July 2009)

fureien said:


> ...
> 
> i think someone mentioned before that suggesting ramping is ridiculous since the asf population is only an insignificant portion of the total market participants.
> 
> ...




regardless of 'someone's mentioning', asf has a policy on ramping, which you will find at the link below 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4773

cheers


----------



## Miner (9 July 2009)

fureien said:


> oops sorry,
> 
> i hold sdl, not that much, wish i held more but i am not ramping or anything. i think someone mentioned before that suggesting ramping is ridiculous since the asf population is only an insignificant portion of the total market participants.
> 
> ...





Thanks for the clarification and wish you good luck in SDL 
I would however say the SDL is always marketable with a high volume at any day and there are opportunities to buy and sell on teh same day


----------



## wbosher (9 July 2009)

There's been a lot of buying at 14.5c so far today and not too much selling that I've seen...hopefully that's a good sign.


----------



## CarbonSteel (16 July 2009)

Gordon Nuttal has been found guilty. So what now for Ken Talbot? Anyone know the implications for him?


----------



## Miner (16 July 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Gordon Nuttal has been found guilty. So what now for Ken Talbot? Anyone know the implications for him?




I think Mr Talbot will be sent to China to exchange for Mr Hu of Rio. Next deal Rio will get for coal then


----------



## CarbonSteel (17 July 2009)

I'm looking forward to the Quarterly Report which should be forthcoming about July 31. Any predictions about offtake partners?


----------



## The Muffin Man (17 July 2009)

If not an announcement of a partner, hopefully some strong wording that indicates negotiations are well on their way. With Jones retiring 31 August, I'd hope foe a significant announcement before then.


----------



## jonojpsg (17 July 2009)

OK, time for a realistic price target 

*Assuming* that SDL can sign up a parter/partners in the next three months, to my mind the SP should be re-rated to at least a fair takeover price per tonne of resource.  Given the 2.5bn tonnes, and a more than fair price per tonne of 50c, that would be $1.25bn MC.

With what, 2bn shares on issue, looking at a SP of $0.60 if things go right over the next three months.  Here's hoping anyway


----------



## CarbonSteel (18 July 2009)

A general view of the IO industry, incorporating comment about SDL....

Improving Steel Market Good For Iron Ore Outlook
FNArena News - July 17 2009

By Chris Shaw



> Small and mid-size resource company research group Resource Capital Research has completed its quarterly analysis of the Australian iron ore market, noting there are signs of a recovey after spot prices fell in both the December quarter of 2008 and the March quarter this year.
> 
> The group puts the improvement down to positive changes in global steel production and steel prices in recent months, as the iron ore price has tended to follow these market developments. On its numbers global refined steel production rose 7.4% between April and May, helping the world steel plate price to a 9% gain in June compared to its May close.
> 
> ...




So we could still be yet another year away


----------



## talktome (19 July 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> OK, time for a realistic price target
> 
> *Assuming* that SDL can sign up a parter/partners in the next three months, to my mind the SP should be re-rated to at least a fair takeover price per tonne of resource.  Given the 2.5bn tonnes, and a more than fair price per tonne of 50c, that would be $1.25bn MC.
> 
> With what, 2bn shares on issue, looking at a SP of $0.60 if things go right over the next three months.  Here's hoping anyway




Here's an exert from the Nov '08 AGM presentaion (page 6) in regards to prices per tonne in-ground:

* Mbarga is similar scale to major Itabirite projects in Minas Gerais area of Brazil
* Recent transactions in Brazil valued at US$1 - $3 / tonne in-ground for ~38% Itabirite

Those figures paint a nicer picture...

talktome


----------



## CarbonSteel (20 July 2009)

talktome said:


> Here's an exert from the Nov '08 AGM presentaion (page 6) in regards to prices per tonne in-ground:
> 
> * Mbarga is similar scale to major Itabirite projects in Minas Gerais area of Brazil
> * Recent transactions in Brazil valued at US$1 - $3 / tonne in-ground for ~38% Itabirite
> ...




An interesting and pleasing comparison. As an SDL holder, I hope your figures are acceptable to the market. 

To make a real comparison, it is necessary to also compare Capex. What are the logistics involved in getting ore from Minas Gerais area of Brazil to port?

I think SDL is looking at about $3.5B.


----------



## CarbonSteel (21 July 2009)

A couple of snippets of info...

Costs to date are around $50m (Source: BBY report), so Cameroon Govt. will be contributing $25m if they want in. 

Secondly, someone bought 4.8m shares in one swoop near the close yesterday, pushing the price to 16 cents. 

Could be interesting today... QR is just around the corner and Dow is looking a little sturdier!


----------



## The Muffin Man (21 July 2009)

The Muffin Man said:


> *After sitting down and going through the report, we can see that the Mbalam Exploration and Evaluation Assets Account held $97m in it at December 31. My estimate was a little way off, but the variance is in SDL's favour. I'm interested to know if this account is what will be used to determine what the Cameroon Government will pay for the extra 15% of CamIron.*
> 
> I can understand that there are still quite a few things that could derail the Mbalam Convention, but there are encouraging signs. Why would the Cameroon Government nominate CamIron as the preferred developer of the Iron Ore section of it's multi billion dollar Kribi Port development if the Government had drastic concerns about the detail of the Convention?
> 
> ...




CarbonSteel, we should try and get confirmation as to which figure SDL would go off when charging the 50% development costs if the Cameroon Government decided to buy-in. Within the December financials there is an Mbalam Exploration and Evaluation Assets Account, which all capital expenses to do with Mbalam would have been capitalised to I would have thought. I could be wrong though.


----------



## CarbonSteel (21 July 2009)

Hi Muffin Man.

I got my info ($50m cost to date) from a report by BBY and available at the SDL website.

Go here...

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/20779/bby report april 2009.pdf

Should be reasonably reliable ??


----------



## munga (21 July 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> A couple of snippets of info...
> 
> Costs to date are around $50m (Source: BBY report), so Cameroon Govt. will be contributing $25m if they want in.
> 
> ...




earlier in the day, yesterday the share count went from 6m to approx 11m in seconds a huge parcel was snapped up then also. someone was buying up big


----------



## talktome (22 July 2009)

Chinese steelmakers looking for alternative iron ore suppliers *Chinese steelmakers are scrambling to secure alternative iron ore supplies *as concerns mount that the alliance forged between Australian mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton could force up prices. Among the new ore suppliers now being courted are Canada's Adriana Resources and Australia's *Sundance Resources. *

The bid to secure new supply agreements follows an announcement on June 5 that Rio had decided against a USD19.5 billion deal tieup with Aluminum Corp of China, in favor of a new iron ore agreement with BHP. Under the deal, Rio and BHP will jointly manage combined ore output of 270 million tons a year, almost equal to the 340 million ton annual output of No 1 producer, Brazil's Vale. Adriana, which is developing an iron ore port in Brazil and two iron ore projects in Canada, is expected to bring in a Chinese steelmaker as investor in the next few months. 

*Several Chinese companies also expressed interest in investing in Sundance's Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon, or buying
a stake in Sundance.*


http://www.flanders-china.be/_documents/FCCC Sectoral Newsletter No 41.pdf


I personally didn't find this but I though that it needed to be shared.

talktome


----------



## LRG (22 July 2009)

Talktome, thanks this may explain why there have been some big volume purchases of late - but probably they are just speculators.

I think we will be waiting a few months before some sort of funding deal is stitched up.

However, the ongoing issues with current australian iron ore supplies does advantage SDL's long term prospects.

I am surprised that SDL has held up so well given lack of news as per the timeline SDL has provided - would have thought the SP would have slipped back below 10 cents by now.  It hasn't so this seems very positive.


----------



## jonnohowe (22 July 2009)

Keep a watchful eye on MGX too. 

Speculation that Chinese are starting to benchmark MGX prices against BHP.

I picked some up @ 82 cents last week. I'm looking to exit @ $1.40.


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## The Muffin Man (23 July 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Hi Muffin Man.
> 
> I got my info ($50m cost to date) from a report by BBY and available at the SDL website.
> 
> ...




I hope the numbers from the Sundance financials are closer to the money. Surely $25m for another 10% of CamIron is too cheap?


----------



## fureien (23 July 2009)

wow im so glad i didnt offload my holdings last few weeks.

the fact that sdl held out has given me some more confidence.

in fact now i wish i bought more. except 16.5 cents doesnt seem to be that value. then again i dont want it to drop again lol

my buy price is 10 cents. i dont think it will drop that low again but it just doesnt seem worth it to "average up" if u noe what i mean


----------



## CarbonSteel (23 July 2009)

Hey Muff

Actually, now that I read this BBY report again, it is very possible that you are correct, and that $50m is in fact the *half* that the Cameroon Govt. will need to contribute. If you read this BBY report, it is kinda ambiguous.

I got a gut feeling, and while I cannot quatify, justify or qualify this feeling, it is like I KNOW we are on the verge of something here.

Any other soothsayers have this itch?


----------



## Bigben101 (24 July 2009)

Hey Carbon Steel

The Report looks ok, see what you mean about the ambiguity of the 50 mil. 

You mention on the verge, on the verge of what?

After this whole financial crisis thing, I have learn't one thing.  If analysts say one thing, the opposite will happen. In other words don't trust them.  SDL has announced that the Cameroon Govt will contribute half the capex.

SDL have estimated $19 per ton costs leaving a margin of about $40US per ton (at current IO prices) 40x35 mtpa is $1.5B Aussy dollars (safe estimate) of Revenue, at P/e ratio of 10 that puts SDL at around 4-5 dollars a share depending on dilution. Also excluding dividends 

Ben


----------



## CarbonSteel (25 July 2009)

Hey Bigben101

What I mean is that there could be some positive news about the outcome of "continuing discussions with selected parties including some of the largest iron ore and steel industry groups." (Reported in the QR 30/04/09)

I am hoping that there has been some material advance in these discussions in the last 3 months. The company asserted that work would focus on these discussions in the June quarter.

There have been a few large sales lately:
20/07...2.9m & 4.9m
21/07...4.2m; 4.5m; 2.4m; 1.9m; 1.6m
22/07...1.2m; 1.4m; 1.8m
24/07...4.4m; 2.0m; 2.5m

Roll on July 31, and fingers crossed!


----------



## Pythagerous (27 July 2009)

Things are starting to heat up for SDL.

Opened at 15.5c today, and got up to 18c by 11am, where there was over 32,000,000 shares traded.

The number of buyers opened up on par with the number of sellers, however this rapidly changed, and now the buyers outway the sellers 455 to 255.

Also, the following advert was found on another forum, which is also an extremely positive lead.

http://www.infomine.com/careers/jobs/job356736/site.operations.superintendent.aspx


----------



## fureien (27 July 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Hey Bigben101
> 
> What I mean is that there could be some positive news about the outcome of "continuing discussions with selected parties including some of the largest iron ore and steel industry groups." (Reported in the QR 30/04/09)
> 
> ...






do u know whats happening on july 31? quarterly activity reports?

really wished i bought in more now


----------



## Pythagerous (27 July 2009)

Quarterly report was released earlier today http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090727/pdf/31jr46s9qsz90f.pdf

May not have been the announcement that some were hoping for, however it reads quite positively.


----------



## fureien (27 July 2009)

oops i missed that. i was blinded by the big green numbers on my portfolio since 10 am 

if the report is released today then unless theres more things we shud be expecting before the end of july. past experience tells me that the price wont hold for very long.

sellers at 18 cents have hit the 100 mark.
my dillema is once again whether to take profits now or just keep holding to god knows when,

my biggest investment problem since ive started trading is never knowing when to take profits. i bought in at 10 cents, and i doubt that opportunity will arise again anytime soon. at the same time i want to take profits and buy back in again later.

what do you guys do in this situation?


----------



## fureien (27 July 2009)

lol in regards to my remark about prices not holding. i take that back for now lol. it just broke past 100 sellers at 18 cents..what the.. i have made about 80% profit now, never had that happen before lol. im still dreading the possibility of profit taking tommorrow though....


----------



## munga (27 July 2009)

problem with selling out of this one is when announcement comes there will be a trading halt hence no time to get in. im just sitting on mine waiting for a good announcement hopefully


----------



## jonojpsg (27 July 2009)

fureien said:


> lol in regards to my remark about prices not holding. i take that back for now lol. it just broke past 100 sellers at 18 cents..what the.. i have made about 80% profit now, never had that happen before lol. im still dreading the possibility of profit taking tommorrow though....




Hey fureien, 
Mate don't sweat it - you really need to be comfortable with whatever you do - obviously SDL may retrace tomorrow but given the action over the last few weeks it appears that 13-15c is a pretty solid base from which it is unlikely (IMO) to drop back through.  

That gives you at least a 30-50% gain to sit on, with a *potential* upside of far greater than that  

Given the facts, it can only be a matter of time as munga said, gotta be in when the news hits or you'll miss the gap up, coz there's bound to be one IMO.


----------



## Miner (28 July 2009)

talktome said:


> True ladies, very true.
> 
> There will be a gap up. It sounds, by way of the last report, that we will hear something this quarter (July-Sept).
> 
> ...




Good thoughts talktome

But could you please declare your interest here : holding or not and what is the basis of such prediction . This query I am making seeing what ASF gurus told me as code of ethics here.

BTW I do hold SDL and do like to see it go up but I am not a psychic


----------



## fureien (28 July 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Hey fureien,
> Mate don't sweat it - you really need to be comfortable with whatever you do - obviously SDL may retrace tomorrow but given the action over the last few weeks it appears that 13-15c is a pretty solid base from which it is unlikely (IMO) to drop back through.
> 
> That gives you at least a 30-50% gain to sit on, with a *potential* upside of far greater than that
> ...




thanks for putting that into perspective for me
ive been 90% sure i wanted to hold this anyway. ive traded sdl in and out about 3 times already. but after that i purposely did not sell at 3 potentially big breakout intervals. although with the power of hindsight, i could have sold and bought back in and pretty much the same price again each time.

but since i have been so patient already, it doesnt hurt to wait some more 

my only concern is that i havent thrown much money at this stock, i just want to throw more in, but keep missing opportunities. last time it dipped to 13.5 cents i thought it was gunna go lower, but it didnt and missed the boat -_-


i have a question though, once the stock does "gap up" (could someone define this phrase for me please) will THAT be a good time to sell then. cause usually when that happens, take CVN for example it will eventually drop down again and u see a bit of penant formation for about a month. would rather put my money to good use during that period, unless theres even more announcements to be had.


also im not sure if its this thread, but somebody mentioned that august is conventionally a "profit" month, does that refer to the fact that companies report heaps of profit during august? it doesnt make sense as august is usually the most uneventful month i can think of lol


----------



## CarbonSteel (28 July 2009)

There appears to be a few folks with an itchy sell finger. 

If you have any respect whatsoever for Warren Buffett (no, not the singer... his uncle) listen to his advice...



> Our favorite holding period is forever.




and...



> We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.




I contend that todays sellers of SDL are in the "greedy" category and have a high chance of missing out when the real action comes. Ahhh.. let them chase their tails, at least they'll be happy thinking they're making money.

I think talktome has the philosophy here "patience, that's all that is needed now."


----------



## poortrader (28 July 2009)

*Patience is Virtue, here is the definition.*
Patience is a virtue because it makes us better people. The definition of the word is to tolerate delay. This implies self control and forbearance as opposed to wanting what we want when we want it. How many times have we jumped the gun and found out it it would have been better to tolerate delay or had self control? What did we miss out on? Did we hurt someone because of lack of patience? Did our lives just change completely just because we couldn't control ourselves? Patience is not only a virtue but a necessity for a happy existence. 

Why would you sell now,
do you really yneed the money desperately?
do you want it to re-invest in other stocks?

Whatever it is, im sure it can wait...

my 2cents if its worth anything


----------



## Aargh! (28 July 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> There appears to be a few folks with an itchy sell finger.
> 
> If you have any respect whatsoever for Warren Buffett (no, not the singer... his uncle) listen to his advice...
> 
> ...






poortrader said:


> *Patience is Virtue, here is the definition.*
> Patience is a virtue because it makes us better people. The definition of the word is to tolerate delay. This implies self control and forbearance as opposed to wanting what we want when we want it. How many times have we jumped the gun and found out it it would have been better to tolerate delay or had self control? What did we miss out on? Did we hurt someone because of lack of patience? Did our lives just change completely just because we couldn't control ourselves? Patience is not only a virtue but a necessity for a happy existence.
> 
> Why would you sell now,
> ...




Perhaps you should start a philosophy thread and keep the stock talk in the stock talk (and the HotCop sentiment ie crazy to sell when the money train is a tootin on HotCop). My two cents


----------



## Miner (28 July 2009)

Aargh! said:


> Perhaps you should start a philosophy thread and keep the stock talk in the stock talk (and the HotCop sentiment ie crazy to sell when the money train is a tootin on HotCop). My two cents




Mate

Your points are well taken
But hey considering many of those poets probably have been waiting for long time to see SDL to rise from grave. So a bit of philosophy and poetic writing probably does no harm 

I think personally sometimes it is a good flavour in between money talks.

How come we tolerate Malcolm Turnbull's Bull S and Kevin Rudd's Rude logy when the country is in deep turmoil. Same story - need a breather to sing when economy does not support. 

Sorry me no difference but do feel bad time for SDL is over now. They have started recruiting senior personnel. This is normally the scenario when company becomes serious. Good luck to all SDL holders

Me too a SDL holder


----------



## Pythagerous (29 July 2009)

G'day Miner

You made reference to the fact that they are recruiting senior personel.

Are you just referring to the job advertisement that I posted, or are they recruiting additional personel?


----------



## talktome (29 July 2009)

Miner said:


> Good thoughts talktome
> 
> But could you please declare your interest here : holding or not and what is the basis of such prediction . This query I am making seeing what ASF gurus told me as code of ethics here.
> 
> BTW I do hold SDL and do like to see it go up but I am not a psychic




Hi Miner & everybody,

I am a long term holder with positive sentiment.

The chance of a gap up is highly likely as SDL has in the past requested a 'trading halt’ for announcements, and when positive news is released after a trading halt, in most circumstances, there just tends to be gap ups, depending on the buying force behind it of course. The flip side is a gap down if the announcement is bad.

Also, from memory, SDL was issued ‘speeding tickets’ or ‘please explain’ notices by the ASX for run-ups in the share price leading up to announcements. I think SDL has succumbed to these speeding tickets and have learned to use trading halts in a more timely fashion.

By the way, is there a button we are supposed to click on for position and sentiment etc.? I can't see it.

Thank you

talktome


----------



## CarbonSteel (29 July 2009)

Aargh! said:


> Perhaps you should start a philosophy thread and keep the stock talk in the stock talk (and the HotCop sentiment ie crazy to sell when the money train is a tootin on HotCop). My two cents




I do not apologise to you for my post which contained (for you) too much philosophy.

Indeed, I thought that the "Thought Police" and "Forum Gestapo" were extinct. 

Apparently not.

I'll write what I want to write in this forum and I will take direction only from the moderator.

Have a nice day Aargh!


----------



## Aargh! (29 July 2009)

CarbonSteel,

I suggest you read the forum rules regarding posting your "gut feelings" and "itches" with no funny/tech analysis to back it up.



CarbonSteel said:


> I contend that todays sellers of SDL are in the "greedy" category and have a high chance of missing out when the real action comes. Ahhh.. let them chase their tails, at least they'll be happy thinking they're making money.




You suggest people selling now are greedy? How could taking a profit in the current market be deemed greedy? This is beyond me and I would think the majority of the members here. I make no apologies for pointing this out.



CarbonSteel said:


> Indeed, I thought that the "Thought Police" and "Forum Gestapo" were extinct.




I think you will find the Gestapo fell along with Nazi Germany. Think as much or as little as you want, that's your prerogative.

I hope your day is as sensational as mine.

PS. If your gut feelings and itches persist I'd suggest seeing your GP, there's probably some cream to help clear it up 

PPS. SDL looking bullish with recent Morning Star and increasing volume (my tech input )


----------



## LRG (29 July 2009)

people, no need for chipping each other.

SDL hit a new high again today (off the bottom I mean).  The trend is definitely north at the moment.

Also, volumes continue to be very high.  A lot of interest.

I continue to hold my reasonable holding and have finally broken through my average price of 16.9 cents (I bought originally at 45 cents and averaged all the way down over the last 18 months).

50 cents then $1 IMO are the next milestone SP targets upon a partner/finance announcemet in 3rd or 4rth QTR 2009.


----------



## munga (29 July 2009)

LRG said:


> people, no need for chipping each other.
> 
> SDL hit a new high again today (off the bottom I mean).  The trend is definitely north at the moment.
> 
> ...




my first purchase was at 72cents then thought i would be smart and got in at 43cents history shows that it went to 7cents. i got very angry an got in at the 9-10cent mark to average out at 23cents. not to smart getting angry but this time it my pay off


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

LRG said:


> 50 cents then $1 IMO are the next milestone SP targets upon a partner/finance announcemet in 3rd or 4rth QTR 2009.



Do you mind giving us the details on these price targets LRG.

Or, is it just wishful thinking.

Or, is it just a ramp.

Cheers,


----------



## LRG (30 July 2009)

Sure Kennas,

I first started buying SDL in Dec 2007 at a support level around 45 cents.  Previuos to that date it had a support level around 90 cents.  The reason I bought in at 45 cents originally was I thought it was a retracement and ready to head back up.

Then of course we were all hit with the GFC and the share tanked down all the way to about 7 cents. [Sorry I don't have a chart in front of me at the moment - just going off my memory].

So now globally we are seeing a recovery on markets and concurrently we are seeing even better news out of SDL than when in 2007 the shares were valued at 90 odd cents.

I don't fully believe in technical analysis but as a bove the 2 most recent support levels (as above) were around 45c and 90c.  Therefore I see the milestone events about to come (IMO) to break through these levels at 50 and then $1.  Then if construction begins of the infrastructure further dhe will go (see some of my previous posts on predictions and the debate that ocurred at the time - approx 2 or 3 months ago).


----------



## fureien (30 July 2009)

Aargh! said:


> PPS. SDL looking bullish with recent Morning Star and increasing volume (my tech input )




whats morning star?

did anyone sell out today? i know most of you will be holding long term. but ive already made like 100% profit. its just unnerving to keep holding although support is really strong, i feel really greedy lol. watching today's fluctuation from 20.5 down to 19 cents shows a bit more profit taking than the past few days, im sure its because some people dont think it will hold above 20 cents for very long, being a significant resistance point and all. to be honest i hope it drops again lol.

i think if it rallies tommorrow then im just gunna keep on holdinng. otherwise a second day of profit taking is kinda a signal for me to sell. with full intention to buy back in of course.

unless somebody here knows of impending price sensitive news/activities.
which is why i asked about morning star...unless u were muttering some metaphor or something


----------



## samt75 (30 July 2009)

Hi Fureien

Morningstar is an independent managed fund and share researcher.

http://www.morningstar.com.au


----------



## fureien (4 August 2009)

> "Hi Fureien
> 
> Morningstar is an independent managed fund and share researcher.
> 
> http://www.morningstar.com.au"




hey great resource, thanks!

btw sdl is doing nicely. glad i persevered and held on just a bit longer. but it does slowly seem to be getting weaker. interesting to see if 18 cents can hold as support. i wont be suprised if those 100+ buyers get knocked out in one go


----------



## CarbonSteel (4 August 2009)

From QR..



> Introduction of Strategic Partners/Investors
> 
> Work will continue to focus on negotiations with these parties in the September 2009 Quarter and the Company remains confident of successfully concluding arrangements for the introduction of prospective strategic partners/investors to the Project.




I note that there is no timeline mentioned. I had thought that there would be some decision in this regard during September, but it may well be later than that. 

The Mbalam convention will not be finalised till  "The Feasibility Study will form the basis for negotiation of the fiscal and commercial terms of the Convention with the final Bankable Feasibility Study (“BFS”) to be completed in 2010 on the basis of these terms."

So that is at least a year away. No wonder fureien that you are seeing some weakness.

There is really no good reason to suspect that the SP will increase prior to an anouncement regarding Offtake/Financing is there?

Could it be that we holders must now languish a little longer?

Bit-o-berley to entice some comment.


----------



## jonojpsg (4 August 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> From QR..
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Note the wording here Carbon - it states that the BFS will be completed in 2010 on the basis of the terms in the Convention - I read this to mean that the Convention will be finalised prior to the BFS?  Maybe worth clarifying with the co?


----------



## CarbonSteel (5 August 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Note the wording here Carbon - it states that the BFS will be completed in 2010 on the basis of the terms in the Convention - I read this to mean that the Convention will be finalised prior to the BFS?  Maybe worth clarifying with the co?




I agree jono and have emailed the Company the content below.

I have emailed them before with another question but did not receive the courtesy of a reply. I won't hold my breath this time.



> Sir,
> 
> I hold SDL shares, and I have some questions relating to that holding.
> 
> ...


----------



## CarbonSteel (6 August 2009)

Update.

Received "Read Receipt" from my email to SDL but no answer. (See previous post for content)

Seems like there is buying in any weakness, I fully expected us to be at 17.5 or lower, but it has held well at 18.0 (For the benefit of those forum rules lovers)... I think this is because: 
1. There is really no new good news.
2. It may be a while before there is some new good news.
3. I would have thought that the "traders" would have opted for greener pastures (as there are probably share price fluctuations with a wider swing elsewhere) and deserted us.

For the record. I hold SDL and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.


----------



## munga (7 August 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Update.
> 
> Received "Read Receipt" from my email to SDL but no answer. (See previous post for content)
> 
> ...



exactly u like me i will continue to hold for the good news.everybody holding this stock is scared of missing the gravy train hence the stock holding up. still see more downside as time goes on as nervs get the best of some but a lot of diehards holding imo


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## samt75 (14 August 2009)

SDL has finished at 0.205c. 
It went for a good run in the last week.




I am a SDL shareholder and proud of it.


----------



## CarbonSteel (14 August 2009)

samt75 said:


> SDL has finished at 0.205c.
> It went for a good run in the last week.
> I am a SDL shareholder and proud of it.




0.205... WOW
So, samt75, was this a raid on a Friday when everyone was almost asleep till Monday? The educated money making a surprise attack because that particular money knows something? Seems odd that we should improve so much after 16:00 doesn't it? Especially to a new high for the year when there is currently no news! Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining about an increase in price in a share that I own. I'm curious about how this sharemarket business works.....really, an increase after the market has closed... almost like someone is desperate to buy but is trying not to be noticed isn't it?

Anyone seen snopandsnap lately? You know, the investment banker that said we would be looking at 7 cents in June. I really wish he would grace us with his presence and wisdom now.


----------



## zmalecki (15 August 2009)

Technical signals, in one day
1.Price Crosses Moving Average (200-week)
2.Commodity Channel Index
3.Momentum
4.MACD

and of course still.....big fundamental perspectives.

1. 2.45 Bln @32%
2. 0.30 Bln @64%
in price @75$ per 100% equivalent it is 77 bln$ resources.

let assume 30 mln T 100% equvalent @ 75 FOB
                                         =2250 mln$ /year
Pre production 3.3 bln$ -> c.a.  - 660 mln$ year capital cost
                                            - 590 mln$ operation (19.65$/T)
                                            - 295 mln$ amortyzator
                                         ------------------------------
                                              705 mln$ yearly
                                    75% = 529 mln$

from other hand 2.1 bln outstanding shares.

EPS = .25$ -> PE retio (in USD) = 0.68

let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
it leasd us to .25*10/(.68) = 3.67$ price per share (in USD).
 3.67 * 1.2(echange rate) give us 4.4 AUD/share.

This is my target price


----------



## CarbonSteel (15 August 2009)

zmalecki said:


> EPS = .25$ -> PE retio (in USD) = 0.68
> 
> let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
> it leasd us to .25*10/(.68) = 3.67$ price per share (in USD).
> ...




Impressive share price if it does achieve that!

I see that you have a good technical ability though I am not educated enough to understand it.

Do you have a timeline or is there an event at which time the share price will reach your target?


----------



## poortrader (15 August 2009)

i had a small portion of SDL shares and sold out at 18.5 last week

what i have noticed though after watching it carefully, is usually Friday's it has a good day, 20.5 came out of nowhere, especially after 17.5 earlier this week.


----------



## CarbonSteel (15 August 2009)

I know you've all been worried about Ken Talbots' fate. 

Here's the latest...

From "The Australian"



> THE proposed six-week trial for Ken Talbot, who's accused of paying Gordon Nuttall almost $300,000 in corrupt payments, will not start for at least a year.
> 
> Lawyers for the former Macarthur Coal chief  today successfully argued his trial be listed for the latter part of 2010.
> 
> ...


----------



## munga (16 August 2009)

zmalecki said:


> Technical signals, in one day
> 1.Price Crosses Moving Average (200-week)
> 2.Commodity Channel Index
> 3.Momentum
> ...



sorry dont understand any of this. 200 day moving average was crossed ages ago and i am learning technical stuff on the run. is this normal jargon for trader buffs or can somebody explain in simple terms pls


----------



## zmalecki (17 August 2009)

munga said:


> sorry dont understand any of this. 200 day moving average was crossed ages ago and i am learning technical stuff on the run. is this normal jargon for trader buffs or can somebody explain in simple terms pls




Not 200 days but 200-weeks!!!!
It is almost 4 years average. This is something differ.



CarbonSteel said:


> Impressive share price if it does achieve that!
> 
> I see that you have a good technical ability though I am not educated enough to understand it.
> 
> Do you have a timeline or is there an event at which time the share price will reach your target?




As I think it is combination of event and time-line.
Event - really going to "production" - construction e.t.c.
Time line - just first quoter of production


----------



## CarbonSteel (18 August 2009)

zmalecki said:


> Not 200 days but 200-weeks!!!!
> It is almost 4 years average. This is something differ.
> 
> 
> ...






Thank you for your explanation. I guess it makes logical sense and if so, we have a looonnnggg way to go pricewise but timewise I think 4 years is a relatively short time for such a large percentage gain (from the present levels).


----------



## stocksontheblock (20 August 2009)

Possibly, and more than likely a stupid question, yet I will ask it anyway.

And yes I do own SDL shares - quite a lot of them, for me anyway. And I should add I am a lonnnnnnnnnnnng term investor. What I own I want to hold onto for a number of years and then hopefully never have to work again, when I sell. Ha!!!

So ... it would appear we (who own the shares, and maybe those who don’t) are all awaiting this wonderful statement to say they have a partner who will inject x amount of $’s to get production etc underway.

Now, my question is: let’s assume that they are looking for someone to inject a few hundred million $'s into the company so they can build the port, get a railroad in place, and start digging to get the 'goodies'. I assume that whoever puts this money in will take a % of the company in return, if not will be expecting a very nice sum of the profits when they have them.

So, why not offer more shares at a given amount to raise the money required? I know this means diluting the shares currently held, yet if people purchased them then in theory their holdings are not as diluted as they have taken the chance to purchase the new ones on offer. I assume people would take them up given the amount that seems to be traded on a daily basis.

My question is based around company's like FMG (which I also hold) who seem hell bent on getting more money from o/sea's investors (namely China) without ever offering shares to us poor saps who have invested in the company.

So, is a 'partner' with money better for me in the long run, as a shareholder, or is offering me more shares at $x's (or cents) better for me in the long run as I still own part of the company and therefore have a better position should they make the run to the magical valuations that people are suggesting?

Can anyone with a lot more knowledge on this explain why a share offering is not a good thing?

Thanks,


----------



## Pythagerous (20 August 2009)

G'day Stocksontheblock

You will remember that SDL conducted a SPP a few months ago. Ken Talbot bought $5 Million worth of stock, and we all had the oppurtunity to by another $5,000 worth.

I can't remeber the full amount achieved, but I think it was somewhere between $10-$20million.

Now for the project to go ahead, SDL require about $US3 BILLION for things like a 500km railroad, sea port, construction etc. You can't just accumulate this type of money through Mum and Dad investors via a share pruchase plan. This type of captial has to come from large companies, bank, steel mills etc. It is a lot of money.

As for the strategic partners getting a large slice of the pie. If they are prepared to invest the $US3 Billion, in my opinion, they deserve a large chunk of the pie.

What it boils down to though, is the deal that SDL manage to secure for their shareholders, and I am confident that they will deliver the best deal possible.

You also don't know what the terms of the deal are. If SDL are desperate, they could have offered a larger slice, however if SDL held the upper hand in negotiations, then they may have only had to offer a smaller slice of the pie. Although a strategic partner may invest $3 Billion, the agreement may revolve around them recieving X amount of Iron Ore, instead of an increased stake in the company. It all depends on who the strategic partner is and what deal was struck.


----------



## rowen25 (25 August 2009)

I think not enough has been mentioned of George Jones standing down, He is a major asset to the company with great relations with China and the best man for sourcing the funding required to go ahead, and I believe is remaining on the board of another company. I am a Sundance shareholder and hope him all the best but am starting to wonder if its just slipped through all a bit to easily, it would b nice if he goes out with a nice announcemnet but don't think thats going to happen. I think we got a long wait to hear any news but would love to be proven wrong!!


----------



## talktome (5 September 2009)

Hello,

I am posting in search of some comments from you and the other more knowledgeable ones among us on the SDL thread regarding Don Lewis speaking at the Africa Down Under Conference in Perth just yesterday (Friday Sept 4th 3009)

Presentation Link: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090904/pdf/31kkjb5whwj145.pdf

Below you will find a few questions on specific pages. If anyone could give your 10c worth I'd really appreciate it.

Thank you very much,

talktome


Page 20 -

Capital Expenses haven't decreased - That is disappointing with all that has happened in the world. I thought we would see a considerable CapEx reduction for sure.

Average FOB increased.

Est. Prod Cost the same.

Est. Operating margin has increased by 10.2% - That is quite high isn't it? Any increase is welcomed.



Page 21 - 

Based on the information on this page, is there much scope for SDL to increase their resources? It also says on page 26 that SDL will 'Determine resource potential at Nabeba Deposit and other prospects'. Is +6 billion tonnes a stretch?

Who is Congo Iron to SDL? They seem to have quite an amount of area with their exploration permit (shown in light brown, with dark brown bordering).


Page 23 - 

SDL seems to be in great company in the African continent with the other active companies, such as Exon Mobil, RIO and AES Sonel. That helps paint a more comforting picture for long-term stakeholders. It makes me feel better at least.


After reading the presentation I get the feeling that we wre in for another month of waiting at least, maybe even two or three.

talktome


----------



## RP_Automotive (7 September 2009)

One thing I note from the investor presentation is that SDL intend to start drilling again in November 2009. Now call me the devils advocate, but SDL recently did some capital raising to ensure they had funds to 'tick over' well into 2010. No drilling was ever mentioned. If you ask me in their current position as a non-producing company they cannot afford to drill more, nor do they need to prove up anymore resources untill funding is found. Would you say that this is an indication that SDL are very confident funding for the project as a whole is very close, so they are planning on proving up everything they can whilst infastructre is being built?

I would be disappointed if SDL were to spend money drilling if infact funding is not found at that point. As we all know the main focus is getting funding for this project not wasting money on drilling, that, in my opinion, is simply not needed untill funding for the project is found.

I hold SDL...and will for many years to come.


EDIT: Upon further reading, on page 26 its indicated that they are looking at securing financing and completing the feasability study in 2010. In the meantime it looks as though we'll be getting more definition & possible upgrades of the deposits. I hope SDL have counted the beans right. I'd hate to see another capital raising, as I dont think drilling is important at this time - Theres plenty there already to warrant funding for a massive project. just my 2c.


----------



## RP_Automotive (7 September 2009)

talktome said:


> After reading the presentation I get the feeling that we wre in for another month of waiting at least, maybe even two or three.
> 
> talktome




My vibe is that it will be even longer than that. Possibly late 1st / early 2nd quater 2010. I'm more than happy to be pleasantly surprised!


----------



## munga (7 September 2009)

somebody sold off big today (and its not over yet)
6m shares @ 13:52
5m           @ 14:10
9m           @ 14:27

i hope they are not in the know


----------



## RP_Automotive (7 September 2009)

Yep looks like we're getting smashed. unfortunate. I hope it doesnt scare too many people. Ofcourse I topped up this morning @19c. spewing.


----------



## Tazbattler (7 September 2009)

MMM I didn't think the presentation today had bad or suprising news in it to warrant such a sell off, it's not as if we all hold sdl to make money overnight. I will keep my small holding and top up if it gets down a bit more.  Perhaps the presentation confirmed for some that an positive message was a fair way off yet and they wanted to use their money elsewhere.


----------



## talktome (7 September 2009)

Tazbattler said:


> MMM I didn't think the presentation today had bad or suprising news in it to warrant such a sell off, it's not as if we all hold sdl to make money overnight. I will keep my small holding and top up if it gets down a bit more.  Perhaps the presentation confirmed for some that an positive message was a fair way off yet and they wanted to use their money elsewhere.




I'd say its more to that effect MMM.

I'd do the same if I were tarding SDL. If 0.17 goes we'll be seeing 0.15 for sure.

Talktome


----------



## stocksontheblock (7 September 2009)

Tazbattler said:


> MMM I didn't think the presentation today had bad or suprising news in it to warrant such a sell off, it's not as if we all hold sdl to make money overnight. I will keep my small holding and top up if it gets down a bit more.  Perhaps the presentation confirmed for some that an positive message was a fair way off yet and they wanted to use their money elsewhere.




I think you might find that people were expecting there to be a corne- stone investor this year, hence a big price jump would come soon after annoucing it, then potentially lots of $$$. Yet the presentation today has a lot of if's and butt's, and based on this and that being signed etc a 'solid' investor wont be in play until next year.

As for the money over night, well think about it, the shares have been dirt cheap, get a few hundred thousand of them at 8c, it only costs a few $'s, sell at between 18c or 21c and you will walk away with a nice tidy sum, and not to mention there is a lot of movement in the price, so sell them, make a profit, and buy back in when they fall to 15c again.


----------



## Zodiac (10 September 2009)

Things do not add up. Why would we want to recommence drilling ( after already proving billions of tonnes ) especially after we just had to cease drilling due to lack of working capital. As such we diluted our shares and raised $20m. We only have $18m left which will last a max of 6 months and we are now planning to spend hard on further drilling. Why? We have a world class proven asset. Instead use the money to wine and dine BHP or Vale. BHP would like to open up European markets against Vale, Vale would like to stop this happening and they also lost out recently to the Chinese with the Belinga Mine in Gabon. So commonsence does not prevail UNLESS GOOD NEWS IS AROUND THE CORNER. ALSO THE KRIBI PORT STEERING COMMITTEE ARE DUE TO HAND DOWN THEIR FINDINGS IN SEPTEMBER. This all goes well for steady good announcements in the fourth quarter. Paddle hard owners or you will miss the wave.

Zodiac


----------



## Zodiac (10 September 2009)

I also note that at the moment volume is down. The fat cats have got in over the past 3 weeks and topped up, many a large purchase has been completed at good price. They have all got their position and traded up and will need to sit on them until further announcements drive volume. However in the immediate short term expect large holders to sit, with small leakage at lower prices and lower volume to holders who have lost their nerve. Why sell at 16.5 when you could have sold at 18.5 for the past 6 weeks. Announcements can come any minute and will blow this stock upwards. Beware of haste and panic. This stock has been in the making for 3 years, the board has no way out ( money is running out ) unless they finally agree to announce that they have been successful in negotiations or it has all been pie in the sky for the past 12 months and than there will be hell to pay for all concerned.

Zodiac


----------



## Zodiac (10 September 2009)

One final point, we have a director and major shareholder charged with bribing politicians ( on the public record - no dispute ). Do we really think China will want to support a company with that pedigree. This is their biggest pet hate as it threatens their whole system. Frankly no way. Ken has done all he can to have the case postponed until next year so he can clean up other issues. One of them has to be Sundance. Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out. A Chinese partner would not allow Ken to continue. Look how they have treated Hu. There is a deal in the making and it is before Christmas.  


Zodiac


----------



## stocksontheblock (10 September 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Things do not add up. Why would we want to recommence drilling ( after already proving billions of tonnes ) especially after we just had to cease drilling due to lack of working capital. As such we diluted our shares and raised $20m. We only have $18m left which will last a max of 6 months and we are now planning to spend hard on further drilling. Why? We have a world class proven asset. Instead use the money to wine and dine BHP or Vale. BHP would like to open up European markets against Vale, Vale would like to stop this happening and they also lost out recently to the Chinese with the Belinga Mine in Gabon. So commonsence does not prevail UNLESS GOOD NEWS IS AROUND THE CORNER. ALSO THE KRIBI PORT STEERING COMMITTEE ARE DUE TO HAND DOWN THEIR FINDINGS IN SEPTEMBER. This all goes well for steady good announcements in the fourth quarter. Paddle hard owners or you will miss the wave.
> 
> Zodiac






Zodiac said:


> I also note that at the moment volume is down. The fat cats have got in over the past 3 weeks and topped up, many a large purchase has been completed at good price. They have all got their position and traded up and will need to sit on them until further announcements drive volume. However in the immediate short term expect large holders to sit, with small leakage at lower prices and lower volume to holders who have lost their nerve. Why sell at 16.5 when you could have sold at 18.5 for the past 6 weeks. Announcements can come any minute and will blow this stock upwards. Beware of haste and panic. This stock has been in the making for 3 years, the board has no way out ( money is running out ) unless they finally agree to announce that they have been successful in negotiations or it has all been pie in the sky for the past 12 months and than there will be hell to pay for all concerned.
> 
> Zodiac






Zodiac said:


> One final point, we have a director and major shareholder charged with bribing politicians ( on the public record - no dispute ). Do we really think China will want to support a company with that pedigree. This is their biggest pet hate as it threatens their whole system. Frankly no way. Ken has done all he can to have the case postponed until next year so he can clean up other issues. One of them has to be Sundance. Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out. A Chinese partner would not allow Ken to continue. Look how they have treated Hu. There is a deal in the making and it is before Christmas.
> 
> 
> Zodiac




What can I say, other than what a load of bul*sh*t! Care to actually give any supporting documentation to this sort of rubbish media nonsense? I think you must be an avid reader of the Curious Snail or something of this ilk to just come out with this.

Mate, think we get the idea; you are ramping this and to be honest very poorly, yet come on


----------



## Zodiac (10 September 2009)

I normally don't respond to personal attacks but I think all avid readers will see that the few comments I have posted over the past 18 months do have credibility and make a good discussion point. The attack I have recieved from whoever is childish and was very quick from someone who has only been a recent member and has not contributed to this thread. It was a fearful response. I have hit a bone with perhaps those in the know who wish to quickly burn me down in flames, someone that is continually monitoring this thread to control its direction. The result of my posts have had the response that was intended which should give us all further peace of mind. 

Thank you "who ever"

Zodiac


----------



## CarbonSteel (13 September 2009)

Zodiac said:


> One final point, we have a director and major shareholder charged with bribing politicians ( on the public record - no dispute ). Do we really think China will want to support a company with that pedigree. This is their biggest pet hate as it threatens their whole system. Frankly no way. Ken has done all he can to have the case postponed until next year so he can clean up other issues. One of them has to be Sundance. Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out. A Chinese partner would not allow Ken to continue. Look how they have treated Hu. There is a deal in the making and it is before Christmas.
> 
> 
> Zodiac




So you think that there is no bribery or corruption within the Chinese business community? I had the impression that all Asian business communities actually thrived on backhanders, bribery and corruption (even more so than our own) and would not function without it. Am I mistaken?

Also, does it not make sense to buy drilling equipment and put it to good use, proving up an even bigger asset? Or is an interest rate of 4.5% more attactive to a mining company in the long run?


----------



## Zodiac (13 September 2009)

Bribery for low key assets and non essential industries have been "selectively" tolerated in developing countries for decades. However we are talking about a $7billion investment in a industry which the Chinese are using corruption as a negotiation tool. This crime is punishable by execution in China, so I stand by my point that the board has to be very careful how they play the Talbot card. 
Secondly, I have no problem with the board investing in further equipment and drilling if we had the finances which we do not. I stand by my point that for the board to announce the recommencment of exploration with only $18m in the bank they must have secured a financial backer. When will this be announced? I would anticipate in the 4th quarter after the Kribi Port Committee have announced the "grand plan".

Zodiac


----------



## stocksontheblock (14 September 2009)

Zodiac said:


> I normally don't respond to personal attacks but I think all avid readers will see that the few comments I have posted over the past 18 months do have credibility and make a good discussion point. The attack I have recieved from whoever is childish and was very quick from someone who has only been a recent member and has not contributed to this thread. It was a fearful response. I have hit a bone with perhaps those in the know who wish to quickly burn me down in flames, someone that is continually monitoring this thread to control its direction. The result of my posts have had the response that was intended which should give us all further peace of mind.
> 
> Thank you "who ever"
> 
> Zodiac




Ohhh what a nasty vindictive little child you are.

Are you here to seriously suggest that as a result of your amazingly poor and unsubstantiated claims, that someone has objected to it, advised the 'mod's' of ASF and you have been told to pull your head in and either put up or shut up? Could that be the catalyst for this little out pouring of your own aggrandised belief in your own self importance?

I’m not sure what I think is more sad, that you would have written this – thinking it is true, or that you think there are 'players' (obviously in collusion with the ‘mod’s’ and owner(s) of ASF) in the market who have nothing better to do with their time than watch for the postings of the likes of you and me (and others) on ASF and see if they can organise the downfall of civilisation - well our thoughts on SDL at least – by stifling our thoughts.

Wow ... we must be important! If my assumption for your tirade is right then how about providing some proof – as has already been asked of you, to back up your claims?



> Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out.





> This stock has been in the making for 3 years, the board has no way out ( money is running out ) unless they finally agree to announce that they have been successful in negotiations or it has all been pie in the sky for the past 12 months and than there will be hell to pay for all concerned.





> BHP would like to open up European markets against Vale, Vale would like to stop this happening and they also lost out recently to the Chinese with the Belinga Mine in Gabon.





> … so I stand by my point that the board has to be very careful how they play the Talbot card.





> … stand by my point that for the board to announce the recommencment of exploration with only $18m in the bank they must have secured a financial backer.




And, there just the obvious ones! Not to mention the absolute unease I have when you refer to SDL as ‘we’. Do you work for them?

As for the



> ... will see that the few comments I have posted over the past 18 months do have credibility and make a good discussion point




Yeah??? Such as what? I see 10 posts from you and 5 of them are directly related to your ‘ramping’. Not sure where you have established an ounce of credibility. As for discussion points, yep! You got that!

I like this stock; I own a lot of them. I hope to make a killing, yet I don’t like seeing people get sucked into something based on the rantings of someone who can’t back a single word of it.

Provide some credible evidence for the quotes and maybe you might be seen as slightly credible yourself.


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## CarbonSteel (14 September 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Secondly, I have no problem with the board investing in further equipment and drilling if we had the finances which we do not. I stand by my point that for the board to announce the recommencment of exploration with only $18m in the bank they must have secured a financial backer. When will this be announced? I would anticipate in the 4th quarter after the Kribi Port Committee have announced the "grand plan".
> 
> Zodiac




Is it possible that one or more prospective partners have requested that SDL prove up more asset before investing? Is it possible that this/these entities are paying for this exercise? If I were making the decision to finance SDL, I think I would find further positive drilling results very good comfort food.


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## RP_Automotive (14 September 2009)

If the above situation was true, surely it would be announced by SDL. And certinally they wouldn't say "yeah we'll spend xx Million on drilling if you 'promise' to fund our project. There would have been some sort of contract imo, and we would have heard about it.

I think it is however foolish of SDL to continue drilling with the current cash position. Something isn't adding up.


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## Zodiac (14 September 2009)

Lets substantiate.

1) We have $18m in the bank ( fact ).
2) We have announced a further drilling campaign ( fact ).
3) A board member who is also our major shareholder will stand trial next year for bribing a politician ( fact ).
4) China consider's corruption an evil, poor Hu ( fact ).
5) Vale lost the Belinga Mine to the Chinese ( fact ).
6) BHP ore is shipped to Asia and they would value opening up European markets, they have the money for acquisitions ( commonsense ).
7) Vale may wish to stop this and consider SDL's better deposit 400km away from the Belinga mine in Gabon ( commonsense )
8) Therefore our board which includes Ken must consider the ramifications of Ken being convicted especially if they are contemplating a Chinese partnership ( commonsense ).
9)  What does not make commonsense is why would the board commit to further exploration with limited funds when we have already a proven asset ( " biggest ore body not currently controlled by the big three" ). Pointless unless there is a backer.
10) And why has the above discussion points brought out the best in "stocksontheblock". Instead of attacking me indulge me with your logic.


Zodiac


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## LRG (15 September 2009)

Maybe the stratergy of drilling again is just to keep the momentum going - a show of confidence by SDL Mgmt in the work going forward.

fact - they don't have a funding partner or we would know.

fact - we don't know if there are any potentials really in the wings

fact - we just don't know the status - we just have theire ASX / media releases to speculate about.

I just continue to hold and hope for positive progress sometime in the future.

fact - it is progressing slower than SDL management would have liked (based on previous time lines they put out).


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## stocksontheblock (15 September 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Lets substantiate.
> 
> 1) We have $18m in the bank ( fact ).
> 2) We have announced a further drilling campaign ( fact ).
> ...




Well, short of getting past the point of being feed-up with this sort of rubbish, I will indulge once more in your comments:

I will also raise my complete unease with your term of 'our' and 'we'. Who is 'we' and who is 'our'? If you mean we/our because you are a shareholder then I think you might be taking your understanding of ownership just a little too far!

So, I will correct your points:

1. SDL has $18m in the bank at present. This is correct, and based on best judgement (SDL, not 'us' or 'we') they will detail what the money will be used for. IMO, from the latest releases from SDL, and the SPP from a few months ago the earmarked funds where very clear:



> Sundance‟s Chief Executive Officer, Don Lewis, said: "The proposed placement and Share Purchase Plan Offer will supplement our existing cash reserves to ensure that the Company has funding in place to continue its current activities on the Mbalam Project through to 2010. This will allow us time to develop arrangements with potential strategic partners and ensure that we are best positioned to advance the project as and when global financial conditions improve.”




So ... not only was the money to be used to "develop arrangements with potential strategic partners", yet it was to "supplement our existing cash reserves to ensure that the Company has funding in place to continue its current activities on the Mbalam Project through to 2010" - WHICH includes drilling/continued drilling.

So, not sure where the conspiracy is?

2. SDL has announced additional (not a campaign) drilling. Yep! Great! See Point 1.

3. He may stand trial next yr August 2010 is still a long way off. I would also add that the person you speak of is accused of making 'secret' payments. He has not been found guilty of doing so. Just a little piece of law for you: the fact that the politician in question has been found guilty of receiving 'secret' payments from certain individuals does not automatically mean the person who made them is guilty of corruption. A clear and distinct difference. Whether you think it is playing with words means nothing, there is a difference.

4. Bu*lsh*t!!!!! The fact Hu has been arrested gives no credibility to your claim. Bribes, corruption, etc in China is something that is political and useful for the Chinese when it suits them. It is not an 'evil' as you claim; it may be 'evil' to you, yet not to the Chinese. Corruption has been prevalent in China for the last 70 yrs, and more so in the last 20 yrs since China has attempted to become a player on the world stage. The fact that Hu stands accused of corruption by China is not the smoking gun you claim, in fact, if you had followed the story and knew something of the history of this - short of what you think you have read - the Chinese authorities knew about, what they consider to be, corrupt payments for many years now. 'Poor Hu' as you put it is the result of a disastrous mess with Rio.

So, the 'evil' you speak of is just rubbish!

As to whether or not the accused KT giving money to GN is 'evil' in the eyes of the Chinese will matter squat. Unless you can prove otherwise - which you can’t!

5. Vale lost the mine to the Chinese? How careless of them, they should keep a better eye on their property – I mean you claim they lost it, which means they had it. However, I fail to see how this is substantiated, or a fact!

6. MMM ... maybe! As for commonsense, I think this is more your assumption or wish, it’s certainly not commonsense. Nor, once again have you given an ounce of proof or evidence to suggest BHP wants this 'European' market. However, I think you mean 'African' as that is where SDL are looking to mine, not Europe. Ohhh, and don’t BHP already ship to Europe?

7. MMM ... maybe! As for commonsense, I think this is more your assumption or wish, it’s certainly not commonsense. Prove it!

8. Assuming he is convicted of a crime, and considering it wont be for at least another 12 months - possibly a lot longer, and the apparent investment will come a lot sooner I don’t see how this is an issue. Or are you suggesting that the Chinese in the face of such a massive deposit of ore etc would not invest because of this? Nice try!

9. Once again, see Point 1, and what bu*lsh*t!

Who is the backer?
Why has it not been announced?
How much has been invested?
When was it invested?
What were the terms?

Well ...? I have never heard such sh*t in my life. You are going to seriously try and get away with saying that SDL and all who manage and work for it are committing suicide by not announcing an investor when there is one? This is what you are saying, and to be honest you could find yourself in court for such claims, so how about putting up or shutting up.

10. Attacking you, well I will be as blunt as I can, without being overly rude. When the clowns from the circus try running the show instead of the ring-master then they need to be brought back into line. You have made claims that really should end you up in court and IMO kicked off this site, yet that’s not my decision.

I don’t need to provide any logic as you call it, you need to back your claims up! It’s that simple. You can’t make a claim just because you want to without backing it! It’s that simple.


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## Zodiac (15 September 2009)

Interesting to note that the Belinga Mine is at a standstill. The Gabonese are frustrated at the lack of progress ( nil ) in the construction of the mine / the railway/ the port and the power station. I am intrigued as to why the Chinese are delaying its development. Perhaps they have a better venture nearby to consider. I hope you have chewed your dinner "stockonthebock" or you might get indigestion again.

Zodiac


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## Sean K (16 September 2009)

Ladies and gents,

Attacking others is not cool on ASF and can lead to suspension of your account. Disguising swear words as part of an attack with a !@ is the same as using such a word. Don't do it.  

Also, all effort should be made to substantiate claims if and when they are not public knowledge. Please provide reference to statements or reasonable line of deduction. 

Cheers,
kennas


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## CarbonSteel (19 September 2009)

From: Companies and Markets.com

On balance, I think it's good news for me as a holder....

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/...roon-infrastructure-report-q3-2009-144703.asp



> The construction sector in Cameroon is expected to decline by 1.6% in 2009. Cameroon, despite some setbacks in the latest quarter, managed nevertheless to show some signs of infrastructure development. The country’s rail operator is scheduled to start this year on an 11-year program of railroad improvements. Construction has reportedly begun on the road leading to the Lom Pangar dam project. The Japanese government approved its first loan to Cameroon since 1976.
> 
> But the problems that arose are serious ones. First, the economy deteriorated further in the latest quarter and the forecast now sees GDP growing less than 1% in 2009. Cutbacks in production at the Alucam smelter because of electricity shortages could try the patience of Rio Tinto Alcan, which only last quarter said it would stick to its plans to invest in Cameroon even as it cut capital spending elsewhere. In another blow for the country, the estimated cost of the Limbe Deep Water Port rose to twice its previous level.
> 
> ...


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## CarbonSteel (24 September 2009)

talktome said:


> I'd say its more to that effect MMM.
> 
> I'd do the same if I were tarding SDL. If 0.17 goes we'll be seeing 0.15 for sure.
> 
> Talktome




When I saw this post a coupla weeks ago, I thought "no way!"

And now it looks like it will come to pass.

I guess there are too many opportunities where things are happening and money is being made trading.

Sadly, I'm not educated or sophisticated enough to day trade, but all power to those who have the balls to do so!

I'll sit tight and wait with SDL, and a couple of others who have done better than SDL so far. I cannot explain my irrational thought that someday SDL will treat me well. (please no thought police today-it gets too tiring)


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## CarbonSteel (24 September 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Bribery for low key assets and non essential industries have been "selectively" tolerated in developing countries for decades. However we are talking about a $7billion investment in a industry which the Chinese are using corruption as a negotiation tool. This crime is punishable by execution in China, so I stand by my point that the board has to be very careful how they play the Talbot card.
> Zodiac




From: Companies and Markets.com
(see recent post)



> The country still suffers from corruption, a lack of transparency and insecure borders, but the problems are not getting worse.




Would it not be hypocritical for the Chinese to invest in a project where not only is a substantial shareholder charged (but not found guilty) with  corruption, but also the entire country where this investment is being mooted is in fact rife with corruption. If it is a crime puishable by death in their own country, surely they will steer well clear to protect their morals, no?


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## springhill (24 September 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Would it not be hypocritical for the Chinese to invest in a project where not only is a substantial shareholder charged (but not found guilty) with  corruption, but also the entire country where this investment is being mooted is in fact rife with corruption. If it is a crime puishable by death in their own country, surely they will steer well clear to protect their morals, no?




I don't want to shock any of you but corruption is alive and well in every single country on the planet  albeit in different levels of severity.
Leaving the moral debate out of it. Maybe corruption is a better option than a thousand layers of red tape (not mentioning any names.... Australia) in getting projects off the ground. There's nothing a brown paper bag won't fix!
In the case of the Chinese i wonder which one will win out money v morals


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## ocelot (25 September 2009)

SDL is taking a bit battering today with nearly 10mill trades in the first couple of hours. Looking like people are looking to exit this stock. There really hasn't been any popular annoucements and the big annoucement just arent coming. Friday SDL typically takes a battering but down to .145 cents its not looking good for this stock


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## stocksontheblock (25 September 2009)

ocelot said:


> SDL is taking a bit battering today with nearly 10mill trades in the first couple of hours. Looking like people are looking to exit this stock. There really hasn't been any popular annoucements and the big annoucement just arent coming. Friday SDL typically takes a battering but down to .145 cents its not looking good for this stock




I wonder if the FIRB annoucement has anything to do with this? Don't really know what effect it could have, this could be a contributing factor?


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## munga (25 September 2009)

ocelot said:


> SDL is taking a bit battering today with nearly 10mill trades in the first couple of hours. Looking like people are looking to exit this stock. There really hasn't been any popular annoucements and the big annoucement just arent coming. Friday SDL typically takes a battering but down to .145 cents its not looking good for this stock




been riding this stock for a long while now
got depressed today so i bought more
its going to go just when is the question


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## Zodiac (28 September 2009)

On Friday The African Development Bank approved and announced a $190m facilty for the construction of a highway linking Cameroon and Congo. In its release it mentions to assist for "agricultural and Ore". Refer internet "AFDB Cameroon Congo Road Linkage". More regulatory announcements, particlularly on the Kribi Port, should be the catalyst.

Zodiac


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## LRG (30 September 2009)

I am starting to get a bit nervous with my share holding in SDL - invested a lot of $'s for me - nothing is happening as per their plan / timeline.

are any other holders starting to lose the faith. In the last couple of months we have gone from earlt 20cents to 14.5 cents - a big drop when the rest of the market is rising.

I hope there is positive news soon or i think it may tank quickly on panic back to 10 or 8 cents.


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## inenigma (30 September 2009)

LRG said:


> I am starting to get a bit nervous with my share holding in SDL - invested a lot of $'s for me - nothing is happening as per their plan / timeline.
> 
> I hope there is positive news soon or i think it may tank quickly on panic back to 10 or 8 cents.




Settle down.....  If many others read your post they too might think of selling.....

Oh...  Hold on....  I don't own any SDL at the moment...  If the price goes down then I might be able to purchase some cheaper than it is today....


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## Julia (30 September 2009)

munga said:


> been riding this stock for a long while now
> got depressed today so i bought more



Can you explain the logic of buying more of a falling stock?



> its going to go just when is the question



How are you sure it's 'going to go'?




inenigma said:


> Settle down.....  If many others read your post they too might think of selling.....
> 
> Oh...  Hold on....  I don't own any SDL at the moment...  If the price goes down then I might be able to purchase some cheaper than it is today....



I'd ask you the same question I asked munga above, i.e. why would you buy a falling stock?

Do either of you have an identified price where you will exit?  Or are you happy to watch it dissolve to nothing if that's what happens?


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## munga (1 October 2009)

Julia said:


> Can you explain the logic of buying more of a falling stock?
> 
> 
> How are you sure it's 'going to go'?
> ...




quite simply put i have combination of stocks that i use either
ta or fundamental analysis.
on ta i have a entry price  stops and exit plan.
with fa stocks such as sdl i have a strong belief that in the long term
they will increase in price due to the quality of the project.
this has happened with such stocks as fmg, ext to name a few.
i see falling price as an opportunity to increase my holding and decrease my overall average buy price.
all makes sense to me but time will tell


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## CarbonSteel (1 October 2009)

LRG said:


> I am starting to get a bit nervous with my share holding in SDL - invested a lot of $'s for me - nothing is happening as per their plan / timeline.
> 
> are any other holders starting to lose the faith. In the last couple of months we have gone from earlt 20cents to 14.5 cents - a big drop when the rest of the market is rising.
> 
> I hope there is positive news soon or i think it may tank quickly on panic back to 10 or 8 cents.




It is possible that the steel market (and therefore IO) has gone off the boil for the time being. If you go to the website below, you won't find too much positive news for steel.

http://www.steelprices-china.com/


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## Johnny Utah (1 October 2009)

FYI shareholders-
Annual report has been released this morning along with the notice of annual general meeting to be held on Nov 2nd.


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## Miro (1 October 2009)

Johnny Utah said:


> FYI shareholders-
> Annual report has been released this morning along with the notice of annual general meeting to be held on Nov 2nd.




You can find the report at http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/22993/2009 annual financial report.pdf


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## Bigben101 (2 October 2009)

*Annual report*

Something interesting from the annual report 


During the year, Sundance held discussions with a range of
potential strategic partners and investors with an interest in
product off-take, construction, investment and/or financing
associated with the Mbalam Project. A number of parties
visited site to conduct due diligence but, at the time of writing
this report, no agreements had yet been concluded. *The
Company has received proposals from a number of major
international investment banks to assist with arranging project
finance in collaboration with such strategic partners.*

Sounds promising.... wonder who they were.......


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## LRG (4 October 2009)

SDL has sounded "promising" for the last 2 plus years i have been buying it high and low with an avge price of 17 cents.  A couple of months ago (at 20c) i was breaking even covering opportunity cost / interest.

SDL will flounder until they line up funding and/or a partner to go.

If they do it will break out north very quickly.

When will it happen - who bloody knows - it is always "comimg soon".

There is still a chance it wont ever happen - and SDL holders (like me) are stuffed!

IMO commodities will head north, SDL will stack up and it will go ahead sometime in the next 1 month to 3 years?

I still hold - cause I have to - put a lot of my chips on the table.  With the wisdom of hindsight I should have put all my chips in PBG at 20cents which went to $1.25 in a few months (didn't even read about this 6x gain in the papers) - pity I only put 5k in PBG - should have been 100K+ like this one.


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## samt75 (4 October 2009)

Thanks for that info LRG.

Hindsight is always a hard phenomenon to work out.

PBG could have gone backwards 6 x as well but i understand your frustration.


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## pAKEHA bOY (5 October 2009)

Hello All...I'm rather new to all this stocks and shares stuff, but I've been watching SDL for the past 14 months myself with varying amounts of interest and I'm getting ready to put a couple of grand into the pot. To that end, can any of you recommend me of a decent online broker to do the deal with? I'm based in the UK, I don't suppose that makes a difference though.

Thanks a lot


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## Miner (5 October 2009)

pAKEHA bOY said:


> Hello All...I'm rather new to all this stocks and shares stuff, but I've been watching SDL for the past 14 months myself with varying amounts of interest and I'm getting ready to put a couple of grand into the pot. To that end, can any of you recommend me of a decent online broker to do the deal with? I'm based in the UK, I don't suppose that makes a difference though.
> 
> Thanks a lot




Please try these three :
BELL Direct On line (Bell Potter Security owned)- Minimum fee $19 or so
E TRade (ANZ owned) - you may qualify for $600 upfront fee discount
Commsec (Commonwealth Bank owned) - depending on deal going they also offer some brokerage free $600 or so for new clients. They are a bit more pricey than the other two

These three can come with with or witout advice. The fee differs accordingly. I believe Bell Direct offers no service as they will then compete their other wing BPS Securities who charge min $90 with rotten (IMO) advice.

There are Westpac Online and few more as well.

Since you are in London and may not be  an Australian tax payer then please check with your UK rules and regulations as well as ASX rules for non residents.
The fees could be different for on line brokers - recommend writing them directly after you search in INternet and done your research

There are few ASF members who are operating from overseas so I am sure that you will get more appropriate heads up. 

No one however will offer you any advice and DYOR

Regards


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## Miro (5 October 2009)

LRG said:


> SDL has sounded "promising" for the last 2 plus years i have been buying it high and low with an avge price of 17 cents.  A couple of months ago (at 20c) i was breaking even covering opportunity cost / interest.
> 
> SDL will flounder until they line up funding and/or a partner to go.
> 
> ...




SDL is an exploration company, it is always a high-risk business. I'd be quite careful in investing into projects in Cameroon and Congo ... Africa is far away from being a stable continent, look at all the regimes, civil wars etc.


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## pAKEHA bOY (6 October 2009)

Thanks a lot Miner, yes I will look into your advice and will continue to DYOR as well. Many Thanks again.


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## Bigben101 (6 October 2009)

Miro,

Is that why Rio and other big miners are investing heavily in the region?

The place is highly geared to favour foreign investment with tax credits and loans, its a HUGE deal they need to put together it will take some time.


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## Miro (6 October 2009)

Bigben101 said:


> Miro,
> 
> Is that why Rio and other big miners are investing heavily in the region?
> 
> The place is highly geared to favour foreign investment with tax credits and loans, its a HUGE deal they need to put together it will take some time.




That's true ... though SDL is not RIO. It's a risky business, so I wouldn't be too concerned if the stock falls by 25%. If you believe in the project you're gonna be rewarded at some point, sooner or later but there's always a high risk involved.


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## selig97 (6 October 2009)

After some advice from experienced investors.

I have had shares in SDL during many changes it has gone through and although I receive the annual reports and voting papers, these generally end up in my compost.

Regardless of the past practice, I am now trying to pay more attention to what is taking place in businesses I invest in, whether short or long term. Therefore I have the following question that relates to the recent AGM resolutions.

These being, where its states (Resolution 3) that it issued 17,111,317 shares for Ausdrill in Dec 2008 @ .094c and the Company is now asking shareholders to ratify. Does that mean these shares have been issued and have already had an impact to the share price or will we be looking at a further drop in price once these shares are ratified and placed into market?

Thanks.


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## Johnny Utah (9 October 2009)

Notice Received at 2:08pm today. 

*MBALAM PROJECT FEASIBILITY STUDY SUBMITTED TO CAMEROON GOVERNMENT*
Further Key Milestone in Sundance’s West African Development Strategy
International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "Sundance") is pleased to announce that the Feasibility Study for its Mbalam Iron Ore Project has been presented to the Government of Cameroon.
The Feasibility Study has been submitted by Cam Iron SA, the Company’s operating subsidiary in Cameroon, to the Minister of Industry, Mines and Technological Development of the Republic of Cameroon in support of:
● A proposal by Cam Iron SA outlining the key fiscal and development terms for the Project proposed to be included in the Mbalam Convention, and
● A Mining Permit application covering the strategic iron ore deposits identified on Exploration Permit No.92 held by Cam Iron SA including the key Mbarga, Mbarga South and Metzimevin deposits which form the core of the Mbalam Project.
The Environmental and Social Assessment (ESA) for the Mbalam Project has also been presented to the Cameroon Government, with feedback to be provided by the Cameroon Ministry of Environment and Nature Protection (MINEP) prior to release of the document for public review.
Sundance’s CEO, Mr Don Lewis, observed that “the completion and submission of the Feasibility Study marks a key milestone in the development of the Mbalam Project as it triggers the process under the Mining Code of Cameroon for the negotiation of the Mbalam Convention and grant of a Mining Permit”.
“The Feasibility Study indicates that the Mbalam Project is viable on the basis of securing Government agreement for the proposed fiscal and development terms and the definition of High Grade reserves sufficient to support DSO-quality production for the first 10 years of Project operations,” Mr Lewis said.
“The combined High Grade and Itabirite resources already defined at Mbalam are capable of supporting the 25-year term of the Mining Permit, indicating the strategic importance of the Project as a potential long-term supply source to the world iron ore markets.”
“Iron ore market fundamentals appear likely to remain strong in the medium to long term fuelled by growth in demand, particularly from China, and limited large-scale supply options outside the current major producers. The development of a major new source of iron ore will clearly be a welcome development for major international steel producers”.
Mr Lewis said “the Feasibility Study demonstrated the importance of the Mbalam Project to Cameroon. Significant economic, social and environmental benefits are expected to flow from the project, transforming both the mining sector and the broader economy of Cameroon.
The direct financial benefits to Cameroon will be around US$5 billion over the life of the Project, derived from:
● Royalties from the sale of iron ore products;
● Corporate and shareholder income taxes;
● Dividends from the Government’s equity interest in CamIron SA;
● Taxes paid by employees; and
● Proceeds from establishment of a Social and Environmental Sustainability Fund.”
Mr Lewis added that “the forecast financial returns to Cameroon are based on the fiscal package presented in the Feasibility Study to the Government. In addition, there is expected to be significant flow-on benefits through the development of employment, training and new business opportunities as well as regional infrastructure development that should assist related minerals, downstream processing and agri-business opportunities.”
Mr Lewis said that the previously foreshadowed re-commencement of drilling was on target to start shortly with arrival of the Company’s new drilling rig in Cameroon in mid-October: “if our Exploration Target* of 100 to 250 million tonnes hematite at 55-65% Fe at the Nabeba Deposit is achieved, this will significantly increase the tonnage of High Grade hematite already defined at the Mbarga, Mbarga South and Metzimevin Deposts”.

***official doc attached***


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## Johnny Utah (13 October 2009)

Notice Received overnight- 
*DJ Sundance Resources Seeks Permit To Mine Cameroon Iron-Official*
_    Special to DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
YAOUNDE, Cameroon (Dow Jones)-_-Cam Iron S.A., Cameroon's partner to
Australia's iron firm, Sundance Resources Ltd. (SDL.AU) has officially requested a permit from the Cameroon government to start drilling for the mineral, a senior Cameroon government official told Dow Jones Newswires Monday. 
The application covers the iron ore it has prospected in Mbalam, a senior official in Cameroon's Ministry of Industries, Mines and Technological Development told Dow Jones. 
The request lodged Friday comes after Cam Iron S.A. completed its feasibility studies on the $3.3 billion iron mining project in Mbalam, in south eastern of Cameroon, the official said, who declined to be named. 
Sundance Resources owns 100% of Cameroon Iron Co., which itself owns 90% of the Mbalam iron ore deposit, considered to be one biggest in Africa. 
According to the company, a combined total of Inferred Mineral Resource of 2.2 billion metric tons of enriched itabirite and Direct Shipping Ore, or DSO, quality hematite are found in eastern Cameroon. 
Cam Iron and the Cameroon government have been in protracted negotiations to redefine a memorandum of understanding for the project, following the company's search for tax cuts and investment incentives to make the project economically viable and internationally competitive. 
Production could begin by 2012 or earlier, if the Cameroon government issues the authorization by the end of this year. 

Sundance Resources aims to export an estimated 35-40 million tons iron ore yearly.


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## Bigben101 (14 October 2009)

Uh ooh from Reuters:

 By Tansa Musa

YAOUNDE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Australia mining firm Sundance Resources Ltd (SDL.AX) said Tuesday the global economic slowdown has forced it to delay its target for initial production at its Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon by two years to 2013.

"This revised timeline largely reflects the impact of the global financial crisis which seriously impacted iron ore markets, particularly in Europe and North America, and the availability of project finance in 2009," company CEO Don Lewis told Reuters.

"We are seeing these issues starting to abate with confidence returning to markets, particularly commodities markets driven by Asian demand such as iron ore," he said.

Sundance submitted a feasibility study on the project to the Cameroonian government last week, projecting the Central African country would receive some $5 billion in royalties, taxes, and dividends during the 25-year life of the mine.

The Mbalam project, southeast of Yaounde near the Belinga mine in Gabon, holds an estimated 2.5 billion tonnes of high grade hematite and itabirite hematite. Sundance hopes to produce some 35 million tonnes per year.

"Iron ore market fundamentals appear likely to remain strong in the medium to long term fuelled by growth in demand, particularly from China, and limited large-scale supply options outside the current major producers," Lewis said.

He added Sundance was still negotiating fiscal terms of the project with Cameroon's government. (Writing by Richard Valdmanis; editing by James Jukwey)


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## CarbonSteel (14 October 2009)

Big volume, 31 Mil, and plus 10% today. Do we have another announcement coming soon? Or is there some other good reason for this "out of character" performance?


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## LRG (15 October 2009)

big volume yes but still stagnate - very disappointing.

thought it would have made progress by now.

as predicted a few months ago - they have now admitted they are 2 years behind their time line now.

patience is a virtue!


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## CarbonSteel (16 October 2009)

Is it time for truth yet?

Yeah man, we've got banks and IO offtake clients beating a path to our door man.

Oh, we're gonna delay our production startup schedule till 2013 'cos the GFC beat us up man. It's like nobody is interested now man.

So, was there any truth at all, like even 1% of truth, in the initial statement?

Come on Don, how about a little respect for your shareholders, you know, the TRUTH!


----------



## Zodiac (17 October 2009)

Hey Carbon Man, I have always appreciated your input. Don't be too disappointed with the obvious delay notice Don has finally given. We all knew that the project has been delayed, but it is beyond belief that the board did not think it prudent to put in a new time frame for the completion of the project in its recent annual report. Their problem is that they cannot as to do so would be to tell the market that they know when the mining permit would be approved and when offtake and financing is confirmed. They obviously "do not know this" but I go back on this, why would they be spending their last dollars on further exploration unless they have a very good feeling. I would punt that the mining permit will come sooner than later, followed quickly by off take and financing. This could even be followed shortly after with a friendly take over. 

Zodiac


----------



## Pythagerous (19 October 2009)

I think you guys have all read the article the wrong way.

When Don was talking about the project being delayed by 2 years due to the GFC, he was talking about old news. It was delayed by 2 years in 2008, and SDL have released new timelines that took this delay into account.

You guys are reading it as though it is now delayed a further 2 years, which is incorrect. Don Lewis was simply referring to the 2 year delay from back in 2008.


----------



## newbiee (19 October 2009)

Something to think about, maybe. 

From BusinessSpectator
Published 8:32 PM, 23 Sep 2009
AAP

Chinese parties are eyeing Cape Lambert Iron Ore Ltd's Lady Annie copper mine in Queensland that the deal-focused miner expects will be among several asset sales by Christmas worth about $430 million in total.

Chinese firms are also interested in Cape Lambert's 35 per cent-owned Marampa iron ore project in Sierra Leone, executive chairman Tony Sage told a briefing in Perth on Wednesday.

"I can tell you right now, we've got three Chinese groups crawling all over Lady Annie," Mr Sage said.

"We've got three Chinese groups crawling over Sierra Leone trying to buy either the (African Minerals-owned) Tonkolili asset or the Marampa asset.

"I know they're in Cameroon talking to Sundance. They'll be in our (doorstep) very shortly."

Mr Sage said Cape Lambert expected to receive at least $150 million in cash from the Lady Annie sale.

The mine, which was expected to bring in more than $1 billion in revenue at the height of the copper price boom, was acquired by Cape Lambert for a mere $80 million from the collapsed firm CopperCo in May amid depressed prices for the commodity.

"We've gone out and marketed this operation and had two offers, but the best process for us is an IPO (initial public offer) process," Mr Sage said.

"We get to retain an interest ... of five to 10 per cent .... mainly for tax reasons.

"I think we'll be pretty safe raising between $200 million to $250 million but that's all dependent on doing a full bookbuild on our next roadshow."

Mr Sage said the company expected to receive $US100 million ($A114 million) for its stake in Marampa.

"What did it cost us? $2 million," he said.

"I think something will happen before Christmas on that one."

The company's other assets will be proved up to make them attracted for acquisition, then offloaded at presumably a substantial profit.

Mr Sage said the market was now aware Cape Lambert wanted to be a mine developer, not a miner.

He said the company was producing copper at Lady Annie because stockpiled ore could be processed with minimal effort.

"We're doing that just to cover our holding costs," he said.

"I've always vowed not to be a (mine) operator."

Mr Sage said a $50 million dividend would be paid to shareholders in the March quarter, subject to the sale of Lady Annie.


----------



## LRG (21 October 2009)

see announcement Deutches bank apponted to seek finance.

starting to move north again.

We may see a bounce today in the SP?


----------



## Johnny Utah (21 October 2009)

Notice Received.

*SUNDANCE APPOINTS DEUTSCHE BANK AS FINANCIAL ADVISOR TO ARRANGE FUNDING OF THE MBALAM IRON ORE PROJECT*
International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "Sundance") is pleased to announce that it has appointed Deutsche Bank as its financial advisor to arrange project funding to develop the Mbalam Iron Ore Project in West Africa.
Deutsche Bank is one of the world's leading global investment banks with an international network of offices spanning 72 countries. Deutsche Bank has advised on numerous high profile cross-border transactions in addition to having a leading global capital markets franchise. In the Asia Pacific Metals and Mining sector, Deutsche Bank has recently advised Hunan Valin Iron and Steel Group on the acquisition of a 17.4% interest in ASX listed Fortescue Metals Group, Baosteel Group Corporation on the acquisition of a 15% interest in ASX listed Aquila Resources and China Investment Corporation (“CIC”) on its US$1.9 billion strategic investment in PT Bumi Resources.
The appointment follows the recent achievement of several important milestones for the Mbalam Project including submission of a Feasibility Study to the Government of Cameroon earlier this month. This submission triggers the process for the negotiation of the Project Convention and grant of a Mining Permit.
Don Lewis, Sundance’s Managing Director, said: “We are very pleased to have secured the support and commitment of Deutsche Bank, one of the world’s leading financial institutions, to assist Sundance with development of the Mbalam Project, including advising and arranging of funding (including debt and equity) in conjunction with securing strategic partners for the Project.”
“Deutsche Bank has a strong track record of securing funding for Australian and international resources companies,” Mr Lewis said. “This is an important step forward for Sundance and we look forward to working with the Deutsche Bank team through project financing.”

*****


----------



## CarbonSteel (21 October 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> I think you guys have all read the article the wrong way.
> 
> When Don was talking about the project being delayed by 2 years due to the GFC, he was talking about old news. It was delayed by 2 years in 2008, and SDL have released new timelines that took this delay into account.
> 
> You guys are reading it as though it is now delayed a further 2 years, which is incorrect. Don Lewis was simply referring to the 2 year delay from back in 2008.




I think you are right Py. It is old news. My mistake and thank you for pointing it out.

With the appointment of Deutsche Bank, we are starting to look half respectable. Hopefully a few more folks will now begin to take SDL seriously.


Anyone going to attend the AGM and report back?


----------



## jonojpsg (21 October 2009)

I'm surprised there hasn't been more talk and SP movement re the Deutsch Bank announcement??  

Surely the appointment of DB makes getting finance a sure thing for a project such as this - well, at least a lot more certain than having no lead bank?

Will await some more discussion eagerly


----------



## Albi (21 October 2009)

There is no price movement in sp though a hope appear. I feel it is  positive news but why market is not reacting.Does any body know?


----------



## Snoopy1979 (21 October 2009)

RIO and BHP SP are down, hence market is less interested in purchasing mining stocks for today I believe......


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## RP_Automotive (21 October 2009)

I agree, its a fairly dead day on the market. not a great deal of volume anywhere. Although I would have thought todays announcement might have seen a little action - I don't think its major though. IMO its just saying 'we have someone to watch over our finances' - Not announcing any funding or anything...maybee thats why its stale?

I think things are certinally starting to roll together for SDL, with the spate of recent announcements & articles around the place, its certinally in a better position than it was 9 months ago.

I hold.


----------



## CarbonSteel (21 October 2009)

Albi said:


> There is no price movement in sp though a hope appear. I feel it is  positive news but why market is not reacting.Does any body know?




Yeah Albi, I think people know.

We must remember that we are still at least four years away from production.
People have time to make money from other stocks and still come back and buy SDL in time for a major upswing.

Judging by the AR, it will now be at least mid 2010 before there are any announcements about Off-take partners. I guess (but don't know for sure) that Off-take is the next big issue to be resolved before SP can advance seriously.

jono, I agree wholeheartedly that we are looking better, but we also have a long way to go yet.

Now we shall see who is patient and confident.

I got quite a few of these and I'm gonna stick with 'em. I'll let you know if I ever think about selling early, 'cos the price will increase immediately afterwards!


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## munga (21 October 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> Yeah Albi, I think people know.
> 
> 
> Now we shall see who is patient and confident.
> ...




same here. its hard to hold onto while the rest of the market heads north.
but i think the market will re-rate this one quickly when the news flow
comes thru


----------



## Johnny Utah (21 October 2009)

there is a bit of volume going through now over lunch. 18m through this hour (only 3m for the first 2 hours). SP up now a cent (+6%)


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## fureien (21 October 2009)

i would call hitting 18 cents (finally) movement lol.

ive been holding this for a long while and bought in more and averaged down again and again the last time it dropped. i doubled my profits already. i still havent sold the original parcel i bought at 10c though. gunna keep that one long term.


----------



## Zodiac (26 October 2009)

The Cameroon Gazette reports that the government wishes to employ 2000 extra public servants before Christmas of which a quarter will need engineering experience. I would hope that some of these engineers will be working on infrastructure plays for this project.

Zodiac


----------



## CarbonSteel (26 October 2009)

Zodiac said:


> The Cameroon Gazette reports that the government wishes to employ 2000 extra public servants before Christmas of which a quarter will need engineering experience. I would hope that some of these engineers will be working on infrastructure plays for this project.
> 
> Zodiac




Hey Zodes,

It is hard to see how some of these recruits could not become associated with Kribi or hydro dams or railways. 

Nice work mate. You got a link to the page where I can find this gazette in English?


----------



## Zodiac (26 October 2009)

Carbon, refer to following link, hope it works and in particular refer to the chart below the main correspondence which highlight the numbers of engineers the government is to employ:

www.cameroononline.org/2009/10/24/m...civil-service-more-than-2081-to-be-recruited/

Zodiac


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## CarbonSteel (29 October 2009)

They are looking for a lot of professionals.

Where are they getting the money from and why do they "suddenly" need to find this many people? 

IMF? 

World Bank?

A run of the mill developing African country suddenly needs all these people? Isn't it a little out of the ordinary?

Probably the answer is glaringly obvious, but I'm not seeing it.

HELP!


----------



## Bigben101 (30 October 2009)

Discussions are continuing with international parties with potential interest in investment, construction, product off-take and/or financing of the Mbalam Project. Further site inspections were undertaken during the reporting period but discussions remain incomplete.
*In parallel, the Company received proposals from a number of major international investment banks with interest in arranging project finance in collaboration with the selected strategic partner(s). On 20 October 2009, the Company announced that it had appointed Deutsche Bank as its financial advisor.*
Deutsche Bank is one of the world's leading global investment banks with an international network of offices spanning 72 countries. Deutsche Bank has advised on numerous high profile cross-border transactions in addition to having a leading global capital markets franchise. In the Asia Pacific Metals and Mining sector, Deutsche Bank has a strong track record of securing funding for Australian and international resources companies, having recently advised a number of major Chinese State-Owned Entities (SOEs) and China Investment Corporation (CIC) on acquisitions in, and financing of, significant iron ore and coal projects.
The Company is very pleased to have secured the support and commitment of Deutsche Bank to assist in the development of the Mbalam Project, with its role being to advise and assist the Company arrange project funding (including debt and equity).
Work will continue to focus on the introduction of strategic partner(s) to the Project with this work to be coordinated by Deutsche Bank. The Company remains confident of successfully concluding arrangements for the introduction of strategic partners/investors to the Project.


----------



## RP_Automotive (30 October 2009)

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,26280240-31037,00.html

This may be an advantage for SDL.


----------



## fureien (2 November 2009)

RP_Automotive said:


> http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,26280240-31037,00.html
> 
> This may be an advantage for SDL.




i may be mistaken, but i thought one of the main reasons why BHP and RIO started a JV was because they were like geographically neighbours.

Does SDL have anything close to BHP?


----------



## munga (2 November 2009)

fureien said:


> i may be mistaken, but i thought one of the main reasons why BHP and RIO started a JV was because they were like geographically neighbours.
> 
> Does SDL have anything close to BHP?




not bhp but rio are there in aly

[Cameroon and Rio Tinto sign production accords
(AFP) – Jul 30, 2009

YAOUNDE ”” Cameroon and a subsidiary of Anglo-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto have signed an agreement to build an aluminium plant and a hydroelectric dam, the state daily Cameroon Tribune reported Thursday.

The agreement signed by Prime Minister Philemon Yang and Jean-Philippe Puig of Rio Tinto Alcan (RTA) also provides for a deep water port and is initially worth 3.8 million euros ((5.3 million dollars), the paper said.

The aluminium plant with a production of 400,000 tonnes per year will be built at Kribi, like the port, while the hydroelectric dam, with a planned capacity of 930 megawatts, will be at Song Mbengue, also in the south.

Work on building the factory will begin at the end of 2011 and will create 30,000 jobs, while aluminium production should begin in 2016.

Puig said that the project will be "one of the most important in sub-Saharan Africa in years to come and will enable Cameroon to become one of the major aluminium producing countries," according to the paper.

Rio Tinto Alcan is already the majority shareholder in the aluminium company Alucam, which produces about 90,000 tonnes per year at Edea in south Cameroon


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## LRG (2 November 2009)

SDL have released some more positive - but nothing new statements to the ASX etc this afternoon.

See the price went up 1.0 c to 16.5 cents on a down day across the market.

Vol 16 Mill - may be more activity tomorrow.

They say 2010 is when things will start to look up! 

I hold, I wait and wait, I hope, I have patience.


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## Coff&Dream (3 November 2009)

Another ann today, then a trading halt. Looks like another capital raising, got to pay for that drill somehow.  

don't have the 5 posts yet to post links


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## bleach8 (4 November 2009)

Coff&Dream said:


> Another ann today, then a trading halt. Looks like another capital raising, got to pay for that drill somehow.
> 
> don't have the 5 posts yet to post links




not really a good news for me !! i didnt expect this to happen ... i recently purchased a fair bit of SDL..now i will not have money to participate now!!!


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## Johnny Utah (4 November 2009)

I have attached are the pdf's for the Trading Halt and Drilling Expansion Program.
********interesting**********


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## Zodiac (4 November 2009)

Very concerning. I would have thought that the Cameroon Government with their intimate knowledge of the project would jump in now and take their additional stake at whatever ( 50% costs to date ), $50m plus injection. Instead the company is going down the path of another dilution, at the expense of both the long term holders and the Cameroon Government. The fat cats eat again. I mentioned prior my concerns the company had decided to further explore with little cash. They could have spent the dollars to proceed with the project with 6 years DSO proven instead they are going for a 10 year DSO. Whats stopping them doing this again next year and going for a 15 year DSO.  Again why is the Cameroon Government not involved? Welcome anyone's thoughts.

Zodiac


----------



## bleach8 (4 November 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Very concerning. I would have thought that the Cameroon Government with their intimate knowledge of the project would jump in now and take their additional stake at whatever ( 50% costs to date ), $50m plus injection. Instead the company is going down the path of another dilution, at the expense of both the long term holders and the Cameroon Government. The fat cats eat again. I mentioned prior my concerns the company had decided to further explore with little cash. They could have spent the dollars to proceed with the project with 6 years DSO proven instead they are going for a 10 year DSO. Whats stopping them doing this again next year and going for a 15 year DSO.  Again why is the Cameroon Government not involved? Welcome anyone's thoughts.
> 
> Zodiac




Well, it makes sense for the government not to jump in now as they have not officially granted SDL with the mining permit. 

it is understandable that they want to further explore to be in a better position to negotiate with the potential partners. This way, they can basically get the same funding but with more favourable terms. If I am the big shareholder with the extra $$, I will go this way as well.  

Btw, if they invite you to buy another 10k for 13c, will you consider to take that offer? Maybe I will not, but if its 10c, I will have to come up with that money to take the offer. 

Really annoying!


----------



## bleach8 (4 November 2009)

Zodiac said:


> Very concerning. I would have thought that the Cameroon Government with their intimate knowledge of the project would jump in now and take their additional stake at whatever ( 50% costs to date ), $50m plus injection. Instead the company is going down the path of another dilution, at the expense of both the long term holders and the Cameroon Government. The fat cats eat again. I mentioned prior my concerns the company had decided to further explore with little cash. They could have spent the dollars to proceed with the project with 6 years DSO proven instead they are going for a 10 year DSO. Whats stopping them doing this again next year and going for a 15 year DSO.  Again why is the Cameroon Government not involved? Welcome anyone's thoughts.
> 
> Zodiac




The West Australian  © 
Sundance Resources was last night in talks with overseas investors to secure enough cash to take its Cameroon iron ore project to project financing by the end of next year.

It is understood Sundance is using the London office of investment bank Renaissance Capital to carry out the raising and in the process introduce new overseas investors to the Perth company's share register.

Sundance would not comment, but it is thought the company wants to raise substantially more than its existing cash reserves of about $16.6 million to complete a bankable feasibility study for the Mbalam project and secure the necessary approvals from the Cameroon Government, as well as fund more drilling at the asset and nearby deposits across the border in the Republic of Congo.

Mbalam is being touted as one of the biggest iron ore deposits in the world not controlled by the majors. It has a 2.2 billion tonne resource, including 215 million tonnes of high-grade ore, and will cost $US3.3 billion ($3.7 billion) to develop.

Sundance has asked Deutsche Bank to find a development partner and is confident it can strike a deal before a self-imposed end-of-2010 project financing deadline.

Sundance's shares were yesterday placed in a trading halt at 15 ¢


----------



## fureien (5 November 2009)

so is that saying theyre going to get institutional investors and not us current shareholders or a mix of both.


i srsly hope the raising price is incredibly low like 10c again. 13c would be understandable. the average of my main parcel is 10c. so if they wanna raise again at that price im liquidating everything. no point watching my profits drop for no reason.

if its 13 cents at least thats an easily recoverable amount. but 10 - 15c is too much of a difference.

I also bought an extra bunch of share for short term play average above 15c so this is not good news.

Bit disappointed with SDL.

Then again i can just neglect sdl and see you guys in this thread again in another year or 2, then  maybe things will be better. lol


----------



## Miner (6 November 2009)

fureien said:


> so is that saying theyre going to get institutional investors and not us current shareholders or a mix of both.
> 
> 
> i srsly hope the raising price is incredibly low like 10c again. 13c would be understandable. the average of my main parcel is 10c. so if they wanna raise again at that price im liquidating everything. no point watching my profits drop for no reason.
> ...




Dear Furien

Please hold your breath. 

If the current market trend shown by PRU, SGZ are any direction, then the share will probaly go to the privileged sophisticated investors nominated by the sophisticated broker . Normal shareholders will keep on buying lotto tickets to win


----------



## munga (6 November 2009)

Miner said:


> Dear Furien
> 
> Please hold your breath.
> 
> If the current market trend shown by PRU, SGZ are any direction, then the share will probaly go to the privileged sophisticated investors nominated by the sophisticated broker . Normal shareholders will keep on buying lotto tickets to win




totallyagree with this. we will not see any or asked to participate.
i think they are trying to get new investors thru europe.

then again do you want to see anymore.....


----------



## CarbonSteel (6 November 2009)

Is there a chance that something good might come out of this? I have noticed that the SP of some other companies has improved somewhat when financing has been obtained.

In the case of SDL, will it not show that it now has credibility among international players and ultimately create more demand for shares? (notwithstanding that more shares will be issued)

It could be more good news to go with the appointment of Geoff Wedlock and Deutsche Bank.

Anyone see it in this light?


----------



## Johnny Utah (6 November 2009)

Hmmm now its suspension from official quotation.... 

wonder for how long!!!!

I have attached the latest update.


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## Johnny Utah (9 November 2009)

*SUNDANCE COMPLETES PLACEMENT AGREEMENT TO RAISE A$85M FROM INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS*
International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "Sundance") announced today that it has completed a Placement Agreement to raise A$85m from international institutional investors.
Subject to shareholder approval being obtained and other general conditions of the Placement Agreement, a total of 566,666,667 shares will be issued at A$0.15 per share. The raising will be completed in two tranches. The first tranche of 316,806,421 shares is to be issued within the Company’s 15% placement capacity. The second tranche of 249,860,246 shares will be issued subject to shareholder approval being obtained at an Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders to be held on 9 December 2009.
Commenting on the fund raising, Don Lewis, Managing Director of Sundance, said “we are extremely pleased with the strong interest received from institutional investors for the raising. We have deliberately targeted a new investor base to broaden the reach and exposure of the Company to the international market ahead of our proposed project financing activities in 2010. The raising will allow us to aggressively accelerate our development program at Mbalam, establishing Sundance as the first mover in this emerging iron ore province. This is a very significant step in terms of realising the full potential of the Mbalam Iron Ore Project.”
The proceeds of the raising will be used to:
● complete Definitive Feasibility Study of the Mbalam Project, including mine, process, transport and port infrastructure;
● undertake drilling to define further High Grade mineralisation on the Company’s portfolio of exploration landholdings; and
● provide general working capital.
Accordingly, further to Sundance’s request for a voluntary suspension pending completion of the raising, Sundance requests that ASX reinstate its ordinary shares (ASX:SDL) pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 17.7 with immediate effect.
*
**** SDL back trading this morning******


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## zmalecki (9 November 2009)

so, it seems that current market price @0.16 is quite correct, and taking to account that somebody was willing to put 85M I'll hold my shales long.


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## fureien (9 November 2009)

well a SPP was just announced. So it will be at 15c im guessing. i got out 10 mins before the announcement because i made  a typo in my stops lol

then tried to get back in. then they put it in preopen and made the announcement. My buy order got processed, obviously because the market realised the SPP would bring it down to 15c.

lame


----------



## CarbonSteel (9 November 2009)

So it doesn't look to bad for us SH's. Institutional investors raising our pofile, an opportunity for us to participate at the same price (or possibly better) than the institutions. We have an excellent chairman and Deutsche Bank is onboard.
And this from Don...



> "This is a very significant step in terms of realising the full potential of the Mbalam Iron Ore Project"




It's starting to take shape. :venus:

I'm a holder and glad about it.



> so, it seems that current market price @0.16 is quite correct, and taking to account that somebody was willing to put 85M I'll hold my shales long.
> -zmalecki




Here, Here!


----------



## munga (9 November 2009)

CarbonSteel said:


> So it doesn't look to bad for us SH's. Institutional investors raising our pofile, an opportunity for us to participate at the same price (or possibly better) than the institutions. We have an excellent chairman and Deutsche Bank is onboard.
> And this from Don...
> !





the part that interests me is 15c or better
maybe pull some out @ 16c and buy back in
@ 15c or better


----------



## bleach8 (9 November 2009)

If the spp is at 15c not sure whether I want to participate, as the market price is not much different from the spp price.

For the last 3 weeks, a number of positive news has been announced by SDL, 
Appointment of D bank 
Encouraging annual meeting 
Further explore program
Additional drill
Institutional capital raising 

However, do you notice the sp has not moved much, and the volumes have been below average? 
With all the above, generally we should see some better movement either in terms of sp or trading volumes.   
What do you guys think about this?


----------



## munga (9 November 2009)

bleach8 said:


> If the spp is at 15c not sure whether I want to participate, as the market price is not much different from the spp price.
> 
> For the last 3 weeks, a number of positive news has been announced by SDL,
> Appointment of D bank
> ...




agree with what your saying but somewhere out there
some people just tipped 85m into the coffers.

i believe the news flow will increase as drilling etc resumes
as long as china continues to grow the sp should increase


----------



## CarbonSteel (9 November 2009)

bleach8 said:


> However, do you notice the sp has not moved much, and the volumes have been below average?
> With all the above, generally we should see some better movement either in terms of sp or trading volumes.
> What do you guys think about this?




I agree with your analysis.

However, SDL has doubled since early in the year. Overseas markets have had 50 -60% increases. Last month or so they have moved sideways and so has SDL. Perhaps when the overseas markets stop procrastinating and put on solid gains, we will see some real increases as well. We are still holding a fairly speculative stock, so I think we're doing OK. Patience is the catch-cry now. Got to be happy that Don is saying that the process before us will now be fast-tracked to an extent tho'.


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## jonojpsg (10 November 2009)

Well for mine I'm gonna load up!!!!  If SDL have locked in $85m in additional capital that is well and truly going to take them through to financing and final goahead - in which case it is only a matter of time until the SP reflects the figures that have been previously posted here, eg by 2013 it should be around $2-3.  Even a bit of a punt of $1k or so will end up being worth $15-$20k by then


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## Johnny Utah (16 November 2009)

*SHARE PURCHASE PLAN*
International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "the Company") is pleased to announce that its second Share Purchase Plan Offer (“the Offer”) opens 16 November 2009 for eligible shareholders, being those shareholders with a registered address in Australia or New Zealand as at 7.00pm AWST on 16 November 2009 (“the Record Date”).
Under the Offer, eligible shareholders will have an opportunity to acquire up to A$10,000* worth of New Shares free of brokerage or other transaction charges.
The price of the New Shares under the Offer will be 15 cents per New Share, being the price of shares to be issued pursuant to the recently announced placement agreement to raise $85 million from international institutional investors.
The Company proposes to raise up to $5 million through the Offer. If applications are received for more than $5 million, the Company may, in its absolute discretion, scaleback applications to the extent and in the manner it sees fit and/or close the Offer early.
The Offer Booklets and application forms will be mailed to eligible shareholders during the week commencing 16 November 2009 together with an Application Form. The Offer Booklet contains relevant information that eligible shareholders should consider in deciding if they will participate in the Offer, including details of how to apply.
Valid applications must be received by the Company’s registrar, Computershare, before the Offer closes at 5.00pm (AWST) on 30 November 2009 unless closed earlier.

********see attachment for more details*************


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## bleach8 (16 November 2009)

Johnny Utah said:


> *SHARE PURCHASE PLAN*
> International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "the Company") is pleased to announce that its second Share Purchase Plan Offer (“the Offer”) opens 16 November 2009 for eligible shareholders, being those shareholders with a registered address in Australia or New Zealand as at 7.00pm AWST on 16 November 2009 (“the Record Date”).
> Under the Offer, eligible shareholders will have an opportunity to acquire up to A$10,000* worth of New Shares free of brokerage or other transaction charges.
> The price of the New Shares under the Offer will be 15 cents per New Share, being the price of shares to be issued pursuant to the recently announced placement agreement to raise $85 million from international institutional investors.
> ...




All things need to be announced have been announced for this year....

obviously , the company does not need a 5m SPP to fund its further operation. The reason for this SPP is mainly to keep the individual shareholders happy.  I guess we just have to wait till next year for some more news.  I dont think there will be major SP movements untill next year.


----------



## CarbonSteel (18 November 2009)

From companiesandmarkets.com....



> Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q4 2009
> Cameroon’s economic performance this year looks slightly better than it did three months ago, but the country is still handicapped by its poor infrastructure. The government did sign a key agreement involving some of its most ambitious projects, but the immediate future will still include serious threats to its economic strength.
> 
> The report is now forecasting GDP growth in 2009 of 0.8%. That is better than the 0.5% we were previously forecasting, but still far below the 4.8% growth of 2008. The economy should grow even faster in subsequent years. We are forecasting 2.4% growth in 2010 and then a surge to 5.8% in 2011. The main reasons for our reassessment of 2009 are higher gross fixed capital formation and stronger than expected consumer spending.
> ...




Nothing untoward here and construction growth figures are in line with what we anticipate for SDL infrastructure.


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## LRG (27 November 2009)

what are the latest thought at taking up the SPP offer at 15 cents a share?

Would of thought there would have been a better discount 10 or 12 cents.

Most days you can by them on the dips at 15 cents anyway - so what is the advantage of applying?


----------



## bleach8 (27 November 2009)

LRG said:


> what are the latest thought at taking up the SPP offer at 15 cents a share?
> 
> Would of thought there would have been a better discount 10 or 12 cents.
> 
> Most days you can by them on the dips at 15 cents anyway - so what is the advantage of applying?




that is the idea. they dont want ppl to apply as they dont need more money. it simply give shareholders a fair chance rather than rise more funds


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## LRG (2 December 2009)

I wonder how the SPP went?

I hummed & harred? on whether to buy or not - in the end I did not lock up funds via the SPP at 15 cents when the actual SP has been between 14.5 and 15.5 anyway.

Can buy them for 15 cents on the market - which I recently did top up my holdings

Did anyone thake up the SPP offer at no gain to the market price?


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## CarbonSteel (7 December 2009)

LRG said:


> I wonder how the SPP went?
> 
> I hummed & harred? on whether to buy or not - in the end I did not lock up funds via the SPP at 15 cents when the actual SP has been between 14.5 and 15.5 anyway.
> 
> ...




I didn't participate for the same reasons you give.

However, I note that the company says that more than 1000 SH's did subscribe to the tune of $4.6M

I think we're into the hard yards for the next 4 - 6 months at least. Anyone think there'll be substantial announcements before that?

If this turns out to be the case, why should the SP increase at all from where it is now?

Maybe even lower while we all cringe and wait?

Seasons Greetings to all fellow posters:chimney


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## LRG (24 December 2009)

With the xmas break upon us and SDL closing around 14.5 cnets for the year, for me it has been a year of buy more and lower my average purchase price to around 17 cents per share.

so  I am behing the eight ball a bit with my holdings - not as lucky as some buying their parcels at 7 - 8 cents.

However lets hope in the 1st half of 2010 funding is put in place to develop the mine and the rail / infrastructure to port.  If this milestone can be reached - then IMO there will be substantial movement in the SP.

They are still saying with a view to production in 2012 - I think this may be optimistic still!.

Anyway fellow SDL holders - I remain faithful that this venture will proceed. Are we all still positive?


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## munga (26 December 2009)

LRG said:


> With the xmas break upon us and SDL closing around 14.5 cnets for the year, for me it has been a year of buy more and lower my average purchase price to around 17 cents per share.
> 
> so  I am behing the eight ball a bit with my holdings - not as lucky as some buying their parcels at 7 - 8 cents.
> 
> ...





here here
there seemed to be a lot of support in the last week
with a couple of 15m days lets wait and see


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## sidswingerhead (28 December 2009)

Are we seeing a double bottom formation on the chart?

This has been the second attempt at breaking support at the 50% retracement level form the 03/03/09 low to 17/08/09 high.

Support appears strong at present with sellers drying up recently. 

The SP is currently sitting at the outer channel line and hinting at breaking out of the downtrend. The stochastic is oversold on the daily and weekly charts now. The MACD is also hinting at heading North again.

All of the fibonacci time ratios are lining up with the most recent being the .786 time ratio date on the 26/12/09. Interesting to watch the start to the new year.

In all I am looking forward to 2010


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## CarbonSteel (31 December 2009)

From: FACTBOX-Cameroon mining projects....



> Below is a list of major mining projects in the central African country, which is seeking to diversify its traditionally oil-driven economy:
> 
> 
> ALUMINIUM, BAUXITE
> ...




It would appear that investors are taking Cameroon mineral investment quite seriously, thereby discrediting the "banana republic/never get off the ground" mentality. 

Could there be the possibility of cost sharing the rail asset with the nearby Pommy mob?


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## sidswingerhead (3 January 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> From: FACTBOX-Cameroon mining projects....
> 
> 
> 
> ...







You never know! 

With their resources so close to the Sundance prospects maybe there is an opportunity for a "Joint venture partnership" 

Sundance are looking for prospective partners and offtake agreements..

I feel Sundance are sitting in the box seat on this one, with a massive expanse of high quality ore.


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## LRG (6 January 2010)

Sidswingers
i agree that at this stage it looks like support is remaining in place - we have seen reasonable volumes (given the holidays) and a move from 14.5 cents a couple of weeks ago to 16.5 cents the last couple of days.

This is good given the dilution due to the cash raising - there are now nearly 2,710 Million shares with a capitalisation (at 16.5 cents) of $447 Million.  There are about 46 Million options also (see latest ASX notice).

I hope funding to proceed with the infrastructure is forthcoming withing the next 6 months.  I hope there is some collaboration with other nearby ventures and govt. to share the cost of the infrastructure.

If the SDL management team can "line up all their ducks" this year - IMO we will see some significant movement in the SP of SDL.  I remain very patient & very positive - have to be.


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## CarbonSteel (22 January 2010)

Wow, 14c!
Looks like those with the money and power to do so are creating another buying opportunity for themselves....worldwide, or is there more to it than more than that?


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## tronic72 (27 January 2010)

Seems like a great time to get in to me. In fact I'm starting to invest my "rainy day" funds in these sorts of stocks.

.14 is good value IMHO and we have seen consistent resistance in October, November, December and January. The stock is pretty much in line with the market.


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## bleach8 (28 January 2010)

tronic72 said:


> Seems like a great time to get in to me. In fact I'm starting to invest my "rainy day" funds in these sorts of stocks.
> 
> .14 is good value IMHO and we have seen consistent resistance in October, November, December and January. The stock is pretty much in line with the market.




According to their most recent timeframe, they should have major annoucement at end of March or April. if so, the market should start to price in these annoucnemnts either end of Feb or begining of March. So we have to wait another month at least for some major movements....


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## Johnny Utah (28 January 2010)

Attached is the quarterly report from SDL for 09 just released at 2.30pm today. 

**well worth a read, although you probably will be up to speed on the activities**


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## bleach8 (1 February 2010)

the buyer side is so weak at the moment ... 

dont know whether it will hold the 0.130 ............................


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## Miner (1 February 2010)

bleach8 said:


> the buyer side is so weak at the moment ...
> 
> dont know whether it will hold the 0.130 ............................




One way to look into SDL is how they are recruiting.
They are yet to get a director of projects, key project people even in this  sluggish market.

The selection process is very vague.

The org structure is totally fluid and depending on the key person to be recruited. They are recruiting the down below person any way not knowing what the top project guy will say.

They are unsure on the type of material transport - rail or pipe.

Bottom line of so many key uncertainies direct one thing - chaos and delayed project execution.

This is my opinion as seeing the information available in public domain, reading news briefs, and applying my  experience.

I used to hold it and bought and sold at about 40 cents.

Currently do not hold


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## bleach8 (1 February 2010)

Miner said:


> One way to look into SDL is how they are recruiting.
> They are yet to get a director of projects, key project people even in this  sluggish market.
> 
> The selection process is very vague.
> ...




I dont totally agree with you...

as per their recent report:

recruiting:
Appointment of General Manager, Finance and Commercial
The Company has appointed Mr Paul De Nardi as General Manager, Finance and Commercial. Mr De
Nardi’s previous role was as General Manager, Global Development at Rio Tinto Iron Ore with
significant prior investment banking experience with JP Morgan and other international investment
banks.

rail or pipe:
Infrastructure planning continued in the December 2009 Quarter with review of the rail corridor route
and infrastructure costs by Calibre Engenium JV (CEJV). Route optimisation modelling has been
completed and has confirmed the Mid-Northern Corridor as the preferred, least cost alignment

CEJV has been appointed by Sundance to complete definitive feasibility study of the rail package in
2010. CEJV is one of Australia’s leading heavy haul rail engineering groups having completed rail
project studies and execution for Rio, BHP, FMG and a number of other iron ore project developers in
Western Australia. They also have West African experience, having previously worked on Rio’s
Simandou iron ore project in Guinea.

The alternative slurry pipeline option for transporting ore product to port remains a viable option but
assessment of this option is on hold pending definitive engineering and commercial assessment of the
preferred rail option.


I guess the only reason that they didn’t reach a finance deal in July last year was that the major SHs and directors believed that could be better off to wait, define more ore and advance the project a bit further, so they could be in a better position to negotiate a bigger slice for the SHs. 

The bottom line is China want the iron ore. They wanted last year, and they still want this year. Iron ore was identified as the key resource for their national interest. 

As a result, SDL had a chance to do a deal with China, but they didn’t. The only reason was the management understood the potential of the project and wanted better terms from any deals.     

Again, the new General Manager Paul De Nardi, as the former manger of RIO’s Iron ore global development, I am sure he is extremely familiar with most major iron ore developments in the world. I don’t think he would join SDL if he wasn’t confident with the potential of the company. 

My impression is the management is confident with the potential resources underground. However, they are not rushed to reach any deal atm, due to the favorable market trend and the potential of the project.


----------



## jonojpsg (1 February 2010)

Also not rushed to make any deal coz they have about $80-90m in cash just raised!!  This was the key reason for the raising, to give them a chance to get the project to a much better stage for negotiating finance/JV/offtake whatever so that we shareholders get a bigger slice of the billions of $ profits that are going to flow from this.

Note that the WE Australian ran a story about BHP getting a headstart on further expansion of its Pilbara IO ops, they quoted a figure of about $6bn to expand from 200MTpa to 240MTpa, or 40MTpa.  If SDL have to fork out $3bn or so to get 35-50MTpa, that sounds like a pretty good project to me.


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## tronic72 (2 February 2010)

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Sundance Resources Ltd., seeking to build a $3.3 billion iron-ore project in Cameroon, fell as much as 7.1 percent after China said it plans new measures to rein in overcapacity in the steel, cement and other industries. 

Perth-based Sundance was trading down 3.6 percent to 13.5 cents at 11:17 a.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange. The stock dropped 6.7 percent on Jan. 27.


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## Johnny Utah (4 February 2010)

DRILLING COMMENCES AT KEY NABEBA DEPOSIT.

see attachment, news came out overnight


**International iron ore company Sundance Resources Limited (ASX: SDL – "Sundance") is pleased to announce that it has commenced drilling at the Nabeba Deposit in the Republic of Congo, a key exploration target for the Company’s Mbalam Iron Ore Project in 2010.**


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## CarbonSteel (10 February 2010)

Dated: 28 July 2009.



Miner said:


> Good thoughts talktome
> 
> But could you please declare your interest here : holding or not and what is the basis of such prediction . This query I am making seeing what ASF gurus told me as code of ethics here.
> 
> BTW I do hold SDL and do like to see it go up but I am not a psychic




Ethics indeed. A commendable attitude sir. The price on this date was 18 cents. Probably you bought well before that. But I am interested in when you sold....after 28 July 2009....and you were able to achieve a sale price of 40 cents approximately. I must have missed it! On what date did you sell?

Dated: 1st February 2010



> One way to look into SDL is how they are recruiting.
> They are yet to get a director of projects, key project people even in this sluggish market.
> 
> The selection process is very vague.
> ...




Obviously you were a holder on 28 July 2009 and you were a seller (for 40 cents) since that date.

Which of these posts is more accurate sir?

Again, I admire your ethics.


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## LRG (2 March 2010)

not much movement or news here for a while now.
Stephen Bartrop a resource analyst in an interview yesterday has SDL on his recommendation list.

That is all I have heard of late - any one else heard any news?


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## RP_Automotive (2 March 2010)

No I havent heard much lately either. Now seems a good time to accumulate (which is what I'm doing).

The next 6 months will be interesting to see what developments come out in regards to mining permits, financing and general 'movement of the project', especially towards the 4th qtr of this year I would hope.


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## Pythagerous (3 March 2010)

Since receiving the $85 Million, SDL have stepped up their recruiting and drilling campaigns as they try to finalise their feasibility study and secure strategic partners. The Chairman and Don Lewis met with the President in February, and you can see vision on youtube.

Deutche Bank are to recommend preferred strategic partners by March / April and all going well with the drilling results and feasibility study I am anticipating an announcement on strategic partners before the end of the financial year.

The main risks at the moment include:

- Finding someone to front up with the $3.3 Billion following the GFC
- Negotiating with the Cameroon Government
- The dilution impact from the $3.3 Billion required Capex.


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## ocelot (3 March 2010)

alot of shares traded today up around the 100mill mark. It always is like this before an annoucement


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## Pythagerous (4 March 2010)

G'day Ocelot,

I wouldnt get too excited. There were 94million shares traded in an after hours transaction. This could have simply been a transfer of shares by an Investment Fund.


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## Pythagerous (8 March 2010)

Seeing that SDL are not in a position to release their own shortlist of potential strategic partners, I thought I would start my own. Feel free to throw any others that I have missed.

- China Exim Bank
- Posco
- Tata Steel
- Arcelormittel
- Metallurgical Corporation of China
- Citic Resources


*CHINA EXIM BANK* - http://english.eximbank.gov.cn/

The Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank) was established in 1994. Fully owned by the Chinese government and under the direct leadership of the State Council, China Eximbank is a government policy bank enjoying the same international credit ratings as China's sovereign ratings.

Recent investments by them include:

- Cambodia Hydropower Plant $558 Million January 2010
- Crude & Natural Gas Pipeline in Burma $2.5 Billion
- Ecuador Hydroplant $1.97 Billion
- Ethopia Hydropower project $408 Million
- Congo Hydroelectric plant $300 million
- Cameroon Hydropower station $795 million
- Laos Hydropower plants $559 million
- Zimbabwe loan deal for agriculture $5 Billion
- Ethiopia Hydroelectric power project $300 Million
- Mozambique dam $2 Billion
- Sudan Road building $300 million
- Latin America.Venezuela $12 billion
- Argentina $10 Billion
- Brazil $10 Billion
- Belinga Project, Gabon
- Mekin Hydro Electronic Project, Cameroon
- Optic Fibre Network, Cameroon
- Chad / Cameroon Pipeline

Summary: Exim Bank of China appear to be right in the thick of things. They have been financing projects of similar risk categories in coutries with risk ratings equal or worse then Cameroon.



*POSCO*

Based in Pohang, South Korea, POSCO is the world's second largest steel maker by market value and Asias most profitable steelmaker.

Currently, POSCO operates two steel mills in the country, one in Pohang and the other in Gwangyang.

With the strong Korean shipbuilding and automobile industry dependent on POSCO for steel, it has been seen as the bedrock of Korea's industrial development over the past 40 years.

Summary: Being the worlds second largest steel maker and being involved with site visits, they are going to be prominent.



*TATA STEEL* - www.tatasteel.com

Tata Steel formerly known as TISCO and Tata Iron and Steel Company Limited, is the world's sixth largest steel company, with an annual crude steel capacity of 31 million tonnes. It is the largest private sector steel company in India in terms of domestic production. It is part of Tata Group of companies. Tata Steel is also India's second-largest and second-most profitable company in private sector.

Summary: Being one of the largest steel makers in India, and having participated in site visits, TATA Steel is also going to be prominent in negotiations. Let's also not forget about the George Jones' visit to India in 2008, when he checked out of the Taj Mahal in Mumbai, just prior to the Terrorist attack. It is rumoured he was over there for discussions with TATA.



*ARCELORMITTEL* - www.arcelormittel.com

ArcelorMittal is the world's leading steel company, with operations in more than 60 countries. Head office is in Luxembourg and they have over 300,000 thousand employees.

ArcelorMittal is the leader in all major global steel markets, including automotive, construction, household appliances and packaging, with leading R&D and technology, as well as sizeable captive supplies of raw materials and outstanding distribution networks.

In 2009, ArcelorMittal had revenues of $65.1 billion and crude steel production of 73.2 million tonnes, representing approximately 8 per cent of world steel output.

Summary: Another company who participated in site visits and being the worlds largest steel company, they are sure to be a part of negotiations.



*METALLURGICAL CORPORATION OF CHINA*

MCC is a state-owned enterprise in Beijing, China, engaging in EPC (engineering, procurement and construction), natural resources exploitation, papermaking, equipment fabrication, real estate development. MCC is one of the largest equipment manufacturers in China, and the only central-owned enterprise that is authorized to run pulp-making and papermaking businesses in China and overseas.

The Company is involved in the construction of metallurgical, infrastructural facilities, other industrial projects, housing construction, municipal utility construction, installation of electrical and mechanical works, and handles high-rise buildings, mechanical engineering, electronics, power supply, petroleum, chemistry, textiles, transportation, communication, and building materials construction projects. The company also provides geo-technical engineering construction, industrial and civil construction, rock and earthwork excavation, equipment installation, and steel structure fabrication and installation services; and industrial products, including spiral welded pipes of various bore sizes, non-standard equipment, cold-rolled deformed bars, and forged precision metallic equipment. It also engages in water supply projects, sport cities development, and resource development. The company manufactures spiral coasters, and single-stand reversible cold-roll lines.

Summary: In 2007, MCC won the bid for a $880 Million Copper Mining project in Afghanastan, which you would imagine would have a similar, if not worse, risk profile to Cameroon and Don Lewis had a meeting with them on December 1, with the Deutsch Bank present. MCC also recently signed an $8 Billion deal with a Queensland Coal company.



*CITIC RESOURCES*

CITIC Resources Holdings Limited, a subsidiary of CITIC Group in China, is an integrated provider of natural resources (inclding petroleum, coal, metals) particularly petroleum business.

In 2007, CITIC Resources paid US$1.15 billion for oil fields in Kazakhstan and Northeast China from its parent company, CITIC Group. This accelerated CITIC Resources to transform from metal producer to oil producer. It expects to be the fourth largest oil producer in China, following Petrochina, Sinopec and CNOOC.

Summary: Could be the dark horse of negotiations, as it has invested in several projects alongside Ken Talbot.


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## Miner (8 March 2010)

Pythagerous said:


> Seeing that SDL are not in a position to release their own shortlist of potential strategic partners, I thought I would start my own. Feel free to throw any others that I have missed.
> 
> - China Exim Bank
> - Posco
> ...




Good effort and start Pythagerus.

Some additional information :

Please include some of the large steel corporations from India

 Essar in your list. It has a very strong presence in Steel, Power, Construction, Shipping, Oil and Gas. What it lacks - mines. If you refer to Rockland RCI site Essar did throw its offer and took it off.  What is interesting with this group is that it produces and consumes its own products. So when recession arrived Essar was affected marginally. They produce power few times more than total power produced by Australia !!!
Essar  has its own large engineering group AEGIS to save a large money in design and fabricating plants. All of its plants are vertically and horizontally integrated and operate as profit centres. www.essar.com  can be seen for extensive information.

Jindal - it is divided into few groups within the parental name of late OP Jindal. They have steel business, big power group, and iron making plants. Similar to Essar the group companies are vertically integrated and what produced by one profit centre within the group becomes input for another profit centre of the same group.  Jindal  has recently made a non binding offer for RCI . Recently RCI has rejected its offer. When completed  in 2011 Jindal Power group will produce more power than Australia as a nation produces. Please do not forget the high population of India (Australia has only 2% of India's population)

Tata Steel is probably the fifth l(not 6th) argest steel group in the world. They acquired Corus (formerly British Steel) and Jaguar companies. Two costly mistakes when the market was hot. Tata makes every thing and owns iron ore mines (haemetite !), coal mines as well. It has developed a significant holding with RIV Riversdale Mining a coking coal producer. visit www.tata.com and www.tatasteel.com

Boas Steel and Wuhan Steel are worth mentioning. Both of them are owned by Chinese Government and have significant interest in Australian iron and ore mines. Centrex Mines in SA  has significant connection with WISCO and the later are majority shareholder for Centrex. 

Nucor will be very much interesed on SDL acquirement. 

So will be Mitsubishi and Nippon Steel.

Thanks again for your good research and value based addition to this SDL thread. SDL is looking for a partner to do its EPCM and recruting senior personnel. It has a bias for Worley Parsons nevertheless the start of EPCM will make SDL in the front foot

DNH


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## Pythagerous (8 March 2010)

G'day Miner,

Thanks for the response. The exact type of response I was hoping for. I also found this article in the news after posting.


_March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, China’s third-biggest steelmaker, is seeking to invest in more overseas iron ore assets to cut reliance on expensive imports, General Manager Deng Qilin said.

“We aim to be self-sufficient in iron ore supplies in three to five years and reduce purchases,” Deng, who’s also chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association, told reporters today in Beijing during the annual National People’s Congress. “We will continue to invest overseas even as the cost rises. We have achieved good returns from our previous investments.”

Owning resources gives Chinese steelmakers more control over raw material prices and reduces dependence on overseas suppliers like BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA. Contract iron ore prices may rise 60 percent this year on strong Asian demand and a push by BHP to peg pricing to higher spot levels, Morgan Stanley said last week.

This year’s price negotiations with suppliers will be “difficult” because of “differences in view,” Deng said. “We can’t accept a price that would force us to incur losses.”

Chinese steelmakers may have to accept a price increase higher than the 20 percent than they expected this year, Angang Steel Co. Chairman Zhang Xiaogang said on March 5 in Beijing.

The benchmark cash price of iron-ore delivered to China jumped to $134.50 a metric ton on March 2, the highest since at least Dec. 12, 2008, according to The Steel Index. China’s imports rose 42 percent to a record 628 million tons last year.

China failed to reach an accord over prices last year with Rio, BHP and Vale, the world’s three biggest iron ore suppliers. Domestic steelmakers reached private agreements with the suppliers instead, Deng said.

Wuhan Steel expects to produce 36 million tons of crude steel this year, up from 30.3 million tons in 2009, Deng said. The nation’s steel output may rise to 600 million metric tons this year, from 568 million tons in 2009, Deng said. Production capacity probably has exceeded 700 million tons, he said.

Chinese steelmakers, which controlled almost half of the world’s production last year, will have small profits over the next 10 years because they cannot raise prices enough amid the domestic overcapacity, Deng said.

The Chinese government should regulate the market for iron ore trading to stop speculation over prices, he said._
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...s-more-iron-ore-assets-overseas-update1-.html


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## LRG (8 March 2010)

pythagerous and miner - excellent posts.

excellent research you have done on potential partners, the state of play etc.

i have recently been adding to my holdings in this flat period.

something may be in the wind soon - I note there were above average trades today of 20 Million + SDL traded.


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## LRG (16 March 2010)

see todays SDL ASX company announcemet - a very positive report.

- govt
- potential backers
- drilling
- construction start 2011
- etc
15.o c close today.


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## bleach8 (16 March 2010)

LRG said:


> see todays SDL ASX company announcemet - a very positive report.
> 
> - govt
> - potential backers
> ...




well...nothing new and groundbreaking in the announcement today ...but by reaffirming construction start early 2011, hope we have more encouraging news for the following 9.5 month of the 2010


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## jonojpsg (16 March 2010)

bleach8 said:


> well...nothing new and groundbreaking in the announcement today ...but by reaffirming construction start early 2011, hope we have more encouraging news for the following 9.5 month of the 2010




I beg to differ, but the initial drill holes from Nabeba give very positive indications towards achieving the stated exploration target of 100-250Mt of DSO.  If you look at the main area (with three of the four holes) it's about 500m radius.

pi x r2 = 750000m2 x an average depth of 50m at 60%-ish Fe 
gives 37.5M m3 @ say 3t/m3 average density gives 112Mt of DSO.  Very rough calc with obvious shortcomings BUT still a big step towards having 400Mt DSO instead of 215Mt.

In turn this makes the initial easy startup phase much more profitable and longer enabling payback of finance, etc.  This will make obtaining a favourable financial backing much easier IMO.

Also seems to be very positive language used to describe meetings with Cameroon President and progress made on DFS.

I still have comparison research from 2006 that puts SDL up against FMG, and while that was before the GFC, there are still valid points it makes about relative enterprise value for different stages of development.  Basically by start of construction, EV should be around 30-40% of production EV.

If we assume that SDL should be worth say 35Mtpa x $30/t net after costs giving $1.05bn free cash flow, then apply a PE of 5, we get $5bn EV.  30% of this is $1.5bn or about 50c per share.  These are reasonably conservative figures given the projected cash costs of $30/t and long term IO price of $60/t.

So by 2011 maybe 50c per share is a fair target and allows some reasonable appreciation over the coming 9 months assuming it doesn't just sit at 15c then jump once construction starts  Although a stepwise progression is probably in order with jumps at key announcements.

Anyway, feel free to cast a critical eye over the figures and let me know what you all think   Personally I am building my stocks as fast as I can (currently hold 150k- shares that is, not $!)


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## Pythagerous (17 March 2010)

Trolling through prior releases are documents, SDL's timeline appears to be as follows:

*March/April* - Deutche Bank to reccomend preferred strategic partners
*April/June* - Drilling results and feasibility study completed
*June/July* - Announcement to be made on strategic partners
*Late 2010* - Finance to be arranged
*Early 2011* - Construction to begin


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## RP_Automotive (20 March 2010)

http://www.news.com.au/business/rio...a-iron-ore-field/story-e6frfm1i-1225842920852 

Interesting comparisons there. South Africa, 2.5bil tonne IO, ports to build, railway to build....The only scary thing is that Chinalco own nearly 50% with only 1.46billion invested...SDL are looking for 3.3billion. I'm sure theres more to it than that but just a comparison.


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## jonojpsg (22 March 2010)

Some big volume hitting the boards just now, about 9m in a few minutes pushing it up to 15.5c.  Now have 2m on the buy side at 15c in just the last couple of minutes so there looks to be something interesting happening...maybe?

Holding still...


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## Pythagerous (22 March 2010)

Jono, at 3.38pm there were 7,500,000 shares purchased at 15c in the space of 4 seconds. This equates to an outlay of $1,125,000.


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## bleach8 (24 March 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Some big volume hitting the boards just now, about 9m in a few minutes pushing it up to 15.5c.  Now have 2m on the buy side at 15c in just the last couple of minutes so there looks to be something interesting happening...maybe?
> 
> Holding still...





No announcements!
 I don’t think SDL has any announcement for the short term as the drilling result in Congo won’t be available till at least second half of 2010 as there are only to rigs on the ground. 

Although the D bank will inform them the potential partners in late March or early April, I don’t think the short listed will be final, and they will probably conduct more due diligence…who knows how long it will take….

Really wish they can update/inform the market with more details on their timeline….Well….the only update due soon will be the quarterly update in April…hope there will be some encouraging news…

Btw, anyone aware the recent deal with DMM. DMM has target of 1b tons in Congo, but with a market cap only 20m ….is it make SDL over valued?


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## Happy (24 March 2010)

For SDL to move back into uptrend territory needs to have 0.175 trade and cannot go below 0.12 
As it is now SDL is in retracement from recent 0.215 high

What put SDL on my radar, is that there was 61% retracement from 0.215 high and technically stock can go up.

Just in case have 0.135 stop should SDL go lower, I can always have another trade later.


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## bleach8 (24 March 2010)

Happy said:


> For SDL to move back into uptrend territory needs to have 0.175 trade and cannot go below 0.12
> As it is now SDL is in retracement from recent 0.215 high
> 
> What put SDL on my radar, is that there was 61% retracement from 0.215 high and technically stock can go up.
> ...




Don’t you think SDL will be mainly news driven? The 0.215 high was before the large capital raise. Now the share has been diluted by 1/3, the ex high of 0.125 should be equivalent to about 0.145-1.50 which is the current price. 

I am not into the technical analysis, maybe I am wrong and the dilution shouldn’t be taken into consideration for this purpose. Hope u can explain.

Also, if they announcement a positive finance term and partners agreements, don’t you think the price will go up regardless of what trend it is currently at?


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## Pythagerous (24 March 2010)

G'day Bleach8

There was an announcement made yesterday. Well it was more of a presentation that SDL had made in Singapore. Not alot that we hadnt seen before or didnt already know.

They have been drilling since November, albeit they only started with one rig, however they now have the second up and running and the third should be just about up and running, if it isnt already. With three drill rigs soon to be up and running I am anticipating that we could start to see some results in the next couple of months.

Don Lewis has said that DB will make a reccomendation of strategic partners by about March / April, and that they intend to announce partners around June/July.


----------



## bleach8 (24 March 2010)

Pythagerous said:


> G'day Bleach8
> 
> There was an announcement made yesterday. Well it was more of a presentation that SDL had made in Singapore. Not alot that we hadnt seen before or didnt already know.
> 
> ...




I thought there will only be two rigs in Congo, and one rig will remain in Cameroon. I could be wrong.


Wish they can spree the news evenly through the rest of the year, rather than compact all the good news(Hope so) within the second half.


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## Pythagerous (24 March 2010)

Correct Bleach, there will be two in Congo and one in Cameroon, however all 3 of them will be working towards proving up resources in order to reach the target.


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## Richomania (30 March 2010)

Interesting Deutsch Bank becoming a substantial shareholder. Their analysts must think it's a good thing. 
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like they have been buying up small parcels since Nov last year and have managed to acquire 5% without pushing the price up past 15.5c


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## Pythagerous (30 March 2010)

G'day Richomania.

It appears they started accumulating on the 26th of November 2009 with their most recent purchase on 25th of March.

During this time, they accumulated *135,600,969 *shares. During this period there was a low of *12.5c *and a high of *16.5c*.

In saying that though, I am questioning the detailed list of transactions provided in the announcement, as things just don't seem to add up.

On the 11th of December, they claim to have accumulated about *20 million shares*, however my records for the 11th of December only show a total volume of *6,447,863*


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## bleach8 (30 March 2010)

Pythagerous said:


> G'day Richomania.
> 
> It appears they started accumulating on the 26th of November 2009 with their most recent purchase on 25th of March.
> 
> ...




oh well...as long as DB has 5% now ..i think its a positive sign ... DB knows more than we do for sure...

however, is it an issue of conflict of interest ?! or the 'china wall" thing makes it possible ?or it is ok  as long as there is no big transaction before any major announcement? not so sure ....

but its postive i guess

also GBG announced this 70Billion offtake agreement ...they are going to produce 12mt to start with ..with potential up to 30mt pa...their maket cap is around 850m (they only own 50% of the project)

 give me an impression that SDL should worth 1.2-1.5 b(for 50%) based on the production etc


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## jonojpsg (31 March 2010)

RP_Automotive said:


> http://www.news.com.au/business/rio...a-iron-ore-field/story-e6frfm1i-1225842920852
> 
> Interesting comparisons there. South Africa, 2.5bil tonne IO, ports to build, railway to build....The only scary thing is that Chinalco own nearly 50% with only 1.46billion invested...SDL are looking for 3.3billion. I'm sure theres more to it than that but just a comparison.






bleach8 said:


> oh well...as long as DB has 5% now ..i think its a positive sign ... DB knows more than we do for sure...
> 
> however, is it an issue of conflict of interest ?! or the 'china wall" thing makes it possible ?or it is ok  as long as there is no big transaction before any major announcement? not so sure ....
> 
> ...




If you take this deal (top) then 50% of Mbarga etc. should be worth around 1.5bn (SP 50c).  I would have thought that makes SDL somewhat undervalued


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## Happy (31 March 2010)

SDL came to the breakout gate and the question is if it will happen this time, or price will quietly go back to $0.12 - $0.11 area to touch bottom of the latest medium term channel.


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## CarbonSteel (31 March 2010)

Happy said:


> SDL came to the breakout gate and the question is if it will happen this time, or price will quietly go back to $0.12 - $0.11 area to touch bottom of the latest medium term channel.




Facts are:
1. Experienced management personnel (who probably wish to retain their credibility) have been attracted.
2. Resource has been proven up to recognised standards.
3. SDL describe their project development as "advanced".
4. Resource is very substantial even by world standards ( I think in the top ten?).
5. Ther are two very large economies and some smaller ones that wish to bring the illusion of wealth to their citizens. Probably they will need steel to accomplish this. My own opinion is that demand will increase at an exponential rate. It is an opinion only and is not based on any official figures.
6. It is difficult to imagine a bank such as DB investing clients funds in SDL (especially after the Lehman Bros fiasco) if they think it is a lemon. After all, they can see SDL's situation from the point of view of both the company and potential investors/offtake partners.

Personally, I think there will be a lot of people who will "miss the boat" and will wonder why they thought that 15 cents was "too expensive". My personal feeling is that this phenomenon will occur before the end of 2010.

I am a long term holder of SDL and these are my own personal beliefs, not based on any other evidence than I have outlined here.

Having said all this, I think it will be possible to buy SDL shares in the 11 - 12 cent range (as many as you want!) in about the year 2043 when the mine is absolutely depleted of all resource. Even then, Lake Mbarga might be worth a little more.:bowser:


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## CarbonSteel (6 April 2010)

Iron ore prices are seeing substantial rises and the Chinese want to boycott the big three. I assume therefore that they will be seriously looking for alternatives. What more could we SH's ask for?


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## bleach8 (6 April 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Iron ore prices are seeing substantial rises and the Chinese want to boycott the big three. I assume therefore that they will be seriously looking for alternatives. What more could we SH's ask for?




big volumes pushed the price back down to 14.5 c again....waiting on the qurtarly activities update which is due at end of the month. I really hope they annoucnment something in May, or at least first half....

also the management needs to do some serious media marketing ....a number of discussion in major papers lately about potential iron ore players which didint mentain SDL at all .... 

btw, the price drop to 14-14.5c, i will buy more


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## Pythagerous (9 April 2010)

Some interesting developments of late, all in SDL's favour:

- Deutsche Bank becomes a substaintial shareholder, either themselves or on behalf of a client.
- UBS becomes a substaintial shareholder, either themselves or on behalf of the same client of DB.
- Iron Ore Prices continue to head North
- China continue to fight against big 3 miners
- China to place a ban on the import of low quality Iron Ore


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## zmalecki (10 April 2010)

Almost year ago I posted



zmalecki said:


> Technical signals, in one day
> 1.Price Crosses Moving Average (200-week)
> 2.Commodity Channel Index
> 3.Momentum
> ...




How it looks now ??
1. Outstanding shares increased from 2.1 to 2.8 bln (35% up)
2. $ is weaker (from 1.2 -> 1.07 USD/AUD (10% down)
3. price for iron ore substantially increase (60% up)

And how looks calculation now ?

let assume 30 MT @ 137.75 FOB (162$-24.25$  see http://www.mbironoreindex.com/  )
=4132 mln$ /year
Pre production 3.3 bln$ -> c.a. 660 mln$/year cc
- 660 mln$ year capital cost
- 590 mln$ operation (19.65$/T)
- 295 mln$ amortyzator
------------------------------
 1545 mln$ yearly

 4132 mln$ (revenue)
-1545 mln$ (costs  )
--------------------
 2587 mln$ EBIT

now assume that we will have only 50%

  2587 mln$ EBIT * 50% =  1293.5 mln$

from other hand 2.8 bln outstanding shares and options.

EPS = 1293mln$/2.8bln shares = .46$ -> PE ratio = 0.33

let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
it leads us to .15*10/0.33 =* 4.55AUD* price per share.


Taking into account that year ago I made mistake in calculation 
(target price shall be 2.94AUD instead of 4.4AUD) current target 4.55AUD
look much, much better better.
Pls take into account that current calculation was done with assumption 
that SDL will take only 50% of gain....

*As result I'm still in*.
In last year I substantially increase my position.

*What about you ??*

And I think lake of Mbarga in 2043 will be worth much more than .15AUD/share


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## Miner (10 April 2010)

zmalecki said:


> Almost year ago I posted
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Terrific analysis. Probably much better than we see in so called newsletter published by Hartley, UBS, Bell Potter or even Alan Kohler and company. I am not mentioning those Wise Owl, FAT, Intelligent Investor - as they to me are just surface scratcher. 

Just one basic item probably  you have missed out - all calculations of dollar value, iron prices are for mines producing today. SDL will not be able to start production 2013 and probably ramping up will take 12 months to attain name plate capacity. I am confident of 12 months if Worley Parsons is selected (My guess they will be) and as we could see how FMG took time in ramping up. My guess (* I am not good in doing maths like you did* ) is in Africa ramping up time 12 months is fair and reasonable. We can predict the iron price but who knew the bubble of 2007 will burst 

I am a holder and will hold until the situation tells me otherwise . 

But I am trying to be rational than over optimistic. 

Having said that current price is probably very reasonable compared to other iron ore would be producers. So DYOR.


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## zmalecki (10 April 2010)

I fully agree with you



Miner said:


> I am a holder and will hold until the situation tells me otherwise .
> 
> But I am trying to be rational than over optimistic.
> 
> Having said that current price is probably very reasonable compared to other iron ore would be producers. So DYOR.




*Let me provide mix analyse* (tell mi if you will have enough) 

Let us calculate what would be theoretical price, 
that will in future give us market price 0.15AUS.

.15/10 =.015EPS

  .015*2.8Bln = 42mln * 2 = 84mln (EBIT)

   EBIT   =    84mln
+ COSTS   =  1545mln
------------------
= Revenue =  1587mln

Revenue / production = 1584mln/30mln = 52.9 USD/mT
in this case as bubble explode cost of fracht will sink foom 24.2 to 20 (?)

Than we will have FOB CHINA 52.2+20 = 72.2 USD (and this price was last time in 2005 )
The price for Fines ore was in average:
2006 - 76.2
2007 - 83.4
2008 - 132 to 90
2009 -  68 to 110
2010 - ???

So there is chance that .15$/ share is to high (ore price should by lowet then 72.2USD/MT)

In my calculation there is position 660mln capex repaied. 
I assume 3.3blm in 5 years (sorry was to lazy to include interest rate discount)

In consquence after repaying that bottom line for ore price would be

   EBIT    =     84mln$
+ COSTE =  1545mÃ¤l$
-CAPEX   =  -660mln$
----------------------------
= revenue    969mln$

969mln$/30mlnMT = 32.3$/MT + 20$ fracht = 52.3$/MT CIF China

Such price we recentyl saw in 2004

How it will look for last lower price (03.2009 - 68$) ?

68$ - 20$ fracht = 48$ FOB Africa

 Revenue = 1440mln$ (48$*30mlnMT)
- Costs  =  885mln$ (1545 - 660)
---------------------------------
 EBIT    =  555mln$

EPS = .1$ -> PE ratio = 1.4

in this monent theoretical price should be 1.07AUD (still not to bad).

*From other hand I saw compatision to GBG.*.

Using same methodology
for GBG theoreticel price is 7.94 versus 1.335 current
                                   ( 4.95 ratio [7.94/1.335])
for SDL theoretical price is 5.83 versus  .15    current
                                   (37.92 ratio [5.83/.15])

If SDL will be in same position as GBG (partner, off take agreement e.t.c) 
its price can grow to 0.15*37.92/4.95 = 1.14AUS

Of course it will depend on situation on the market,
so it might be in reallity 0.28AUS (ore @ 68$) to 1.14AUS (ore @162$)

And at the end.

Sure we do not know what future will bring us, but once, one wise man told me:

*It is better to calculate something than not.*


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## LRG (12 April 2010)

When does your $4.55 SP prediction fall on the time line of now 2010 to 2014?

approx year and QTR please.

I am in the same sphere from 15 cents to $10 sometime in the future - like FMG.

i thought it would be up to $1 upon funding annonc. which is still TBA april??

But i like most have been waiting for this milestone for 18+ mnths now.

Anyway I keep buying in the belief it will be a success in the future when ??? one day.


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## CarbonSteel (14 April 2010)

LRG said:


> When does your $4.55 SP prediction fall on the time line of now 2010 to 2014?
> 
> approx year and QTR please.
> 
> ...




I am obviously not zmalecki but I would like to offer my opinion. It is an opinion only and is not based on any published (by SDL) facts.

We will be waiting beyond June 2010 for financing and offtake parnerships to be announced. The reasons? 

First, it is a lot of money, and the timeline to build a port and 450 km of railroad (to export product just 3 years from now) seems to me to be too optimistic. 
Second, there are probably a lot of options for SDL to choose from. DB will find and offer these prospects, but ultimately, SDL must look into their crystal ball and agonise over which is the best long term deal.
Third, in spite of target prices which have been offered, reality remains ruler.
What I mean by this is that we are invested in a potentially politically unstable country. It is not exactly Australia and does not have any guarantees. We are blessed with topline management and I hope they can overcome these difficulties, but the facts remain.
Fourth, the Chinese will play it very coyly, as they always do, thinking (or hoping) that they can make lowball offers because SDL is currently in a hard place. They do not hold all the cards and I'm sure gamesmanship will be foremost in the minds of the Chinese. However, against this arguement is the amount of egg they have on their faces after trying to dictate to the Big Three.  Maybe they will eventually remember the outcome of that fruitless exercise.


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## Happy (14 April 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Facts are:
> ...




Facts also are that chart is locked in a band since October 2009, and now if price doesn't break up with $0.165 as good trigger price to buy, might also come back to the bottom of the band to trip buy trigger around $0.12 - $0.11


(Almost win - win situation  )


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## bleach8 (14 April 2010)

Happy said:


> Facts also are that chart is locked in a band since October 2009, and now if price doesn't break up with $0.165 as good trigger price to buy, might also come back to the bottom of the band to trip buy trigger around $0.12 - $0.11
> 
> 
> (Almost win - win situation  )




dude..i know you are good at technical analys, but SDL is not widely trade as BHP, it is news driven ....what if they announce the finance deal ...or upgrade their resourse? 

btw, UBS and DB have been buying SDL for the last 4-5 months. .... they are controling the price so they can get the shares at the price they wanted ...

so my point is ur chart reading technic just doesnt suit shares like SDL ...


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## jonojpsg (15 April 2010)

Agree that SDL will move more on news rather than technicals.

Also agreed that SP tends to move before news   which we may be seeing today?  Although maybe not too - volume is relatively high and moved up a cent or so, we'll see how it trades tomorrow hey.

Worth noting too that the buy/sell balance has shifted markedly from about 3:4 to 5:3


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## bleach8 (15 April 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Agree that SDL will move more on news rather than technicals.
> 
> Also agreed that SP tends to move before news   which we may be seeing today?  Although maybe not too - volume is relatively high and moved up a cent or so, we'll see how it trades tomorrow hey.
> 
> Worth noting too that the buy/sell balance has shifted markedly from about 3:4 to 5:3




hope so...i had a order at 15.5c for the entire day and didnt get them....so i decided to by them at 16c ...looking at the volume today , i dont want to miss something good


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## Pythagerous (19 April 2010)

Drilling Results and Investor Presentation released this morning. Explains the high volume traded last week.


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## bleach8 (19 April 2010)

Pythagerous said:


> Drilling Results and Investor Presentation released this morning. Explains the high volume traded last week.




Cant they just get the Chinese on board? so everyone will be happy ..with Chinese $$ and influences ..SDL can really become a regional producer...and it will be win-win situation....

although you can argue that ...the management wants more value for long term...but seriously...with Chinese supports , SDL can become much bigger and much faster...maybe its not a bad thing to give them some good incentives and wishing the Chinese will bring SDL more opportunities.


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## bleach8 (19 April 2010)

Also, the reason I see that SDL goes on a road show to Europe and NA, is that the management wants to debt finance the whole (or majority) of the project. Otherwise, they would already in the negotiation table with the Chinese.

Another point to support this argument is that SDL took the BLY broker report in 2009 off their website. In that report, BLY argued that SDL cannot get the project going without a significant partner by selling big part of the project. (like GBG 50% to Ansteel).

By taking that off, seems to suggest that the management don’t want to give the impression to the potential investors that the project needs significant dilution.


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## Pythagerous (20 April 2010)

Now I am going to embarass myself here, by taking an unorthodox approach to estimating the amount of tonnage that may be at the Nabeba deposit.

Now before I start you probably should heavily discount the fact that I failed my HSC and once lost a red peg from battleship up my nose.


Ok, Firstly, lets make some assumptions.

The surface area of Nabeba's main deposit of high grade resouce appears to be about *1000m x 750m *

Looking at drilling results, the average depth could range anywhere from *50m* to *100m+*

Dr Google informs me that Iron Ore weighs aproximately *4MT - 5MT *per cubic metre.

So recapping on our assumptions:

Surface Area = *1000m x 750m*
Depth = *50m to 100m+*
Weight = *4MT* per Cubic Meter

Now, using a depth of *50m*, would mean that area has a volume of *37,500,000* Cubic Meters (*1000 *x *750* x *50*). If we then times this by *4* (4MT per Cubic Meter) it gives us a total of *150MT*.

If we use the same formula based on a depth of *100m* it gives us a figure of *300MT*.

In regards to the grade of the iron ore, if you look at the results from the surface area I used, it ranges between *61.4%FE *and *65.3%FE*.

Now although I haven't allowed for things such as faults throughout the resource, I have been conservative in my estimation of the surface area, so hopefully the two cancel each other out.


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## jonojpsg (21 April 2010)

Agreed Pyth, with the results they're getting it looks like the target of 100-250MT is very achievable 

Another thing I was thinking about the benefits of spending more prior to stitching up partners/financing etc. is that the deal they have with the Cam govt is that the govt can take up their 15% stake by covering all the spend (exploration and development) up to that point.  So the more they spend, the more the govt will cough up for their stake, which in reality is almost a given that they will take up their stake.


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## lioness (21 April 2010)

Good volume again today, closed on its high. 16 cents now support, another announcement will push it to 20.

Looks like breakout to me on the chart. Anyone else care to comment.


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## talktome (21 April 2010)

lioness said:


> Good volume again today, closed on its high. 16 cents now support, another announcement will push it to 20.
> 
> Looks like breakout to me on the chart. Anyone else care to comment.





Make that a close of $0.17! 

It's good to see some strength back in SDL. I'd say 15.5c or so is the new low.

Great day,

talktome


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## jonojpsg (22 April 2010)

Definitely looking up, today was pretty steady, average price of 16.5 and a solid line built at 16c, although I have seen a line like that taken out in one trade with SDL so I won't take anything for granted

Another thought I had last night was about Nabeba - if they find 100MT which they pretty much have, with the margins they are talking, ie around $50/t, that makes Nabeba alone worth an extra $5bn to SDL.  Surely when you're talking these sorts of numbers the MC of $480m looks pretty undervalued?  

Sure they still have to finance the thing, but regardless of whether they manage to debt fund it or sell off half to the Chinese for $1.5bn like Rio did, the next two-three years is going to make this a real bonus for my trip to Europe in 2013


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## CarbonSteel (28 April 2010)

I notice that QR's are released on Thursdays at the end of the month recently.
I wonder if this month will be the same and if so, will there be any new announcements?

What is the protocol with this issue? Is SDL obliged to release news (for example, announcement of a financier/off-take partner) as it comes to hand, or are they allowed to keep this revelation from the market until the QR is released?

Quite possibly the SP movement today will indicate if there is to be a price sensitive release tomorrow (or when the QR is actually released). But I don't think I'll hold my breath for anything which will forever change the destiny of SDL.  or  ?


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## Miner (28 April 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> I notice that QR's are released on Thursdays at the end of the month recently.
> I wonder if this month will be the same and if so, will there be any new announcements?
> 
> What is the protocol with this issue? Is SDL obliged to release news (for example, announcement of a financier/off-take partner) as it comes to hand, or are they allowed to keep this revelation from the market until the QR is released?
> ...




Considering DOW movement last night the market including SDL is to be driven by US market unless there is something very positive on SDL to show uptrend.

Let us hope some thing for the better


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## lioness (28 April 2010)

Miner, SDL has gone nowhere but the Dow has gone up 3K points. Other iron ore stocks have doubled, so SDL is news driven more than the markets IMO.

A few strong announcements will see this breakout soon.


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## bleach8 (29 April 2010)

lioness said:


> Miner, SDL has gone nowhere but the Dow has gone up 3K points. Other iron ore stocks have doubled, so SDL is news driven more than the markets IMO.
> 
> A few strong announcements will see this breakout soon.




I don’t think there will be any major ground breaking news from the QR due. Look at the price is going to drop back to 15c again. I am a bit frustrated. As their timeline is to finalized everything before end of the year, now it is only 8 months to go, and we shareholders have not received any clear indication of what is actually going on with the D bank discussion with potential partners, or is there actually any powerful partners who are interested.

Getting a bit annoying by the CEO’s never changed comment of ‘ the project attract huge interests and big potential ….’. update the shareholders, pls !!!    
P.S. I am holding a large amount (relatively) of SDL


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## CarbonSteel (30 April 2010)

Wow! Wasn't that an absolutely incredible QR! More of the same excremement that we have been hearing for the last 18 months. No wonder the price hit 15.5. The avoidance of project financing and offtake progress reports is not exactly ..... heartening. No surprise tho' folks, just wait till the end of 2010. Then build a 450 km railroad and Chinamax deep water port and begin exporting by 2013. I somehow do not think this is credible, nor tempting for prospective investors.
I think now that if this project does happen at all, we are now looking at 2015 for first production. Lets all hang in there and believe the hype, it will be much better for the bank accounts of these directors. They can be offered many more billions of options from which to profit at our expense.

Long term holder seriously thinking about quitting for more profitable (and more honest) pastures.


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## bleach8 (30 April 2010)

We were told d bank would recommend sdl the partners in march/april... And now we r told the project just received more interests after the congo driling result 2 weeks ago!

Sure we r all bit disappointed...


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## lioness (30 April 2010)

bleach8 said:


> We were told d bank would recommend sdl the partners in march/april... And now we r told the project just received more interests after the congo driling result 2 weeks ago!
> 
> Sure we r all bit disappointed...




Whats so disappointing, she is in an uptrend and closed at 16 on the weekly. Once we go up a wee bit more, we are in breakout territory. If we get partners in may/june like I suspect, then we will see 40 cents. Patience, they have to announce something soon or it will be sold down again and whoever DB are buying doesn't want that.

Capital partners also are happy with this stock as it is their number one holding. Once the accumulators are finished, she will go up. Reckon by June this will be 40 cents. Come back and spank me if it isn't.


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## LRG (30 April 2010)

i hope so. i have bought so manly SDL - all my chips are in this due to the talbot connection. in a recent courier mail report he said it is part of his 10 yeaar plan. But i cant wait 10 years - I need a significant exponential return in 2 years! Why i bloody hate my job working for tossers for a middle management salary,
Captain, she cant take it much longer, scotty go warp factor 5 now...


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## lioness (30 April 2010)

LRG said:


> i hope so. i have bought so manly SDL - all my chips are in this due to the talbot connection. in a recent courier mail report he said it is part of his 10 yeaar plan. But i cant wait 10 years - I need a significant exponential return in 2 years! Why i bloody hate my job working for tossers for a middle management salary,
> Captain, she cant take it much longer, scotty go warp factor 5 now...




When the strategic partner is announced soon, warp 5 will look slow. DB and UBS are not buying for play time, they are buying for the one partner in my view.


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## bleach8 (30 April 2010)

lioness said:


> Whats so disappointing, she is in an uptrend and closed at 16 on the weekly. Once we go up a wee bit more, we are in breakout territory. If we get partners in may/june like I suspect, then we will see 40 cents. Patience, they have to announce something soon or it will be sold down again and whoever DB are buying doesn't want that.
> 
> Capital partners also are happy with this stock as it is their number one holding. Once the accumulators are finished, she will go up. Reckon by June this will be 40 cents. Come back and spank me if it isn't.




Hi! I really hope ur guess can come true ....i just have far too many shares of SDL. My 40-50 c is my end of 2010 target ....it looks unlikely now!

Seriously man !!! we have been told that SDL has always had strong interests from " who knows where".... and we are expecting some big announcements soon!! but why do they have to go on a roadshow to sell this project now? we should at least at a stage of negotiation with few partners !! or ...interested parties should have already approached the management ...isn't it D bank had anything under control !?!?!? isn’t too late to sell this project to new partners at this stage ...


if it can reach 40c in June.... pls man ...come to Melbourne ..celebrate with me ...i will pay all your travel expenses ...lol


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## lioness (1 May 2010)

bleach8 said:


> Hi! I really hope ur guess can come true ....i just have far too many shares of SDL. My 40-50 c is my end of 2010 target ....it looks unlikely now!
> 
> Seriously man !!! we have been told that SDL has always had strong interests from " who knows where".... and we are expecting some big announcements soon!! but why do they have to go on a roadshow to sell this project now? we should at least at a stage of negotiation with few partners !! or ...interested parties should have already approached the management ...isn't it D bank had anything under control !?!?!? isn’t too late to sell this project to new partners at this stage ...
> 
> ...




What is your average price here Bleach? Just interested, it wont be too hard for this to breakout within the next month with great drilling results.


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## bleach8 (1 May 2010)

lioness said:


> What is your average price here Bleach? Just interested, it wont be too hard for this to breakout within the next month with great drilling results.




my average is around 15c similar to the last captial riase...

We all know there will be encouraging drilling result of 100-250mt …but the production rate is still at 35mt a year… I guess it is at a stage that investors want progress on project funding and off-takes ….

Obviously, the project is not possible without the Congo part(and we haven’t been told the reason for it, all we have been told is that Cameroon alone would be sufficient and received strong interests for last 18 mths). But the Congo is only at its initial stage …who knows how long it will take to finalise all the studies and the terms with the government …   

“ we are very pleased with the d bank’s progress with the negotiation…!!!”  why are they pleased? What progress?  I think there will be no progress at all before the Congo thing.

Again, drilling result will increase the value of SDL, but not to a great extend.  I just hope they can announce something solid by the end of 2010. By the look of it, other than these monthly drilling update, there will not be anything significant until well into the second half …if lucky maybe November.


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## lioness (1 May 2010)

bleach8 said:


> my average is around 15c similar to the last captial riase...
> 
> We all know there will be encouraging drilling result of 100-250mt …but the production rate is still at 35mt a year… I guess it is at a stage that investors want progress on project funding and off-takes ….
> 
> ...




If you are bored here, dump then and move on. Dont know what you are expecting here. Will move only when partner is announced and that will happen in the next few months. Probably your last chance to get out for a decent profit. Wont be hard getting a partner after this news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63T46M20100430

The move is significant for Vale (VALE5.SA) (VALE.N), the world's largest iron ore miner that is aggressively seeking opportunities in Africa, and for Guinea, where a political crisis has largely discouraged major foreign investment.

"Guinea will be a player on the world iron market within four years and could be the No. 3 producer in six years," Mines Minister Mahmoud Thiam said. "This decision will also kick-start other mining projects in Guinea."

The acquisition will give Vale access to properties with high-quality iron reserves that include the Simandou South property known as Zogota as well as exploration blocks Simandou North 1 and 2, the company said.

Output will begin in 2012 with 10 million tons of iron ore and reach 50 million tons by 2015, Vale said.

It will pay $500 million up front for a 51 percent stake in BSG Resources (Guinea) Ltd. and the remaining $2 billion in subsequent payments over an unspecified period.

"This project is yet another indication of Vale's bullish views on the longevity of the iron ore pricing cycle, and the structural iron ore story," Barclay's capital analysts said in a research note, adding "Given the massive infrastructure requirements...we are skeptical on the time-to-market of these projects..."

AFRICA STRATEGY

The joint venture will renovate 660 kilometers (410 miles) of railway on which Vale plans to export the ore via Liberia.

BSG Resources, with oil and gas projects in Russia and Nigeria, copper, diamonds and iron ore mines in Africa, and an engineering arm, is controlled by Israeli billionaire diamond trader Beny Steinmetz.

Vale is making a big push into African iron ore.

In addition to the Guinea deal, Vale is in talks with Liberia, Guinea's southern neighbor, about a possible concession there, and may seek a stake in the Belinga iron ore project in Gabon.

The Belinga concession was awarded to a Chinese firm ahead of Vale in 2006, but Gabon is reviewing the deal. Analysts believe a Chinese company will lead the project and they expect Vale to take a technical or environmental role.

In March, Chinese metals group Chinalco signed a joint venture agreement with Rio Tinto (RIO.L) (RIO.AX) to develop another iron ore project in Guinea.

The West African country is due to hold elections in late June as part of its transition from military rule to democratic government. Soldiers took power in Guinea in December 2008.


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## bleach8 (1 May 2010)

dont get me wrong please! i have started to accumulating SDL for almost a year. And I have seen a lot positive news like this before. I m just frustrated with the timing …the timeline… last year this time …ppl in this forum were expecting the finance deal would be announced “in the next few months” ….

I wont get out , as I still believe in the potential of the company like you…but to be honest, long time retail holder of SDL would be frustrated after reading the QR….

All I want is a more realistic and specific time line from the management …


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## lioness (1 May 2010)

Bleach, UBS and DB are now 5% plus holders, what does that tell you? It tells you a deal is very close now as part of the deal would be the partner buying a % stake into the company. That gives me heaps of confidence a deal is close. My estimate is by June we will have it completed and a share price a lot higher than now. A few cents up or down is meaningless really. Ask FMG holders when they sold for $2 and the price went to $70 before the split. Look at the bigger prize.

This is from a poster off HC on values of SDL:

Hi all,

Following presents two parts of my analyses: The first part deals with SDL re-valuation, a review of the previous model (model1) using different assumptions as described here-in. The second part is about Project funding strategies, a hot topic that most of us want to know but fear to deal with them (lol). The two parts are obviously related together as it's all about the impact of SDL share price.

PART I - SDL Valuation based on Project CashFlow (AGM Nov 2009)

SDL valuation : Price target AUD$0.98

Following are the review of my calculation of SDL Share price based on SDL Project Cashflow and returns from AGM Nov 2009 (P23). For practical reason, I tend to do my valuation using real project cashflow (report in Nov 2009).

Note that the figures of nominal project cashflow in "Investor Presentation March 2010", present values without adjusting for inflation.

My intention in this valuation are to check two important things. With the assumption of "10 years High Grade (DSO) production", verify whether SDL is able to:
1. Pay back initial capital over a period of 3 years. This has been stated through cf "Investor Presentation March 2010" (P2)
2. Fully funded Phase 2 Itabirite CAPEX from project (Page 23)

Without successfully achieving Point 1 (as above), it would be hard to see SDL introducing a second CAPEX, where a cumulation of debt could potentially cripple its growth.

The approach I used is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation, similar to previous models.
Again I try to keep the modeling as realistic as possible, based on estimates data provided in SDL AGM Nov 2009 Report, mainly from SDL's Project Cashflow section (Page 23)

At this stage, as I don't know the terms of funding, I have assumed that the project is fully debt funded
(refer to "Project funding strategies" further in this document)

Following are the assumptions for my valuation:
Model3 : Mining 25 Years, 325Mt DSO and remaining Pellet Feed Concentrate (or Concentrate Product)
- 35Mtpa High Grade production target for first 10 years
starting with 325Mt DSO and remaining years, Pellet Feed Concentrate)
- Production mining = 25 Years
- CAPEX1 for initial startup with DSO = US$ 3,350 Millions
- CAPEX2 for phase 2 Itabirite (to be funded from cashflow) = US$2,800 Millions
- Fully debt funded project with US$3,350 million, Interest rate on debt = 10%

Based on SDL Project Cashflow and Returns (P23):
- Avg annual revenues = US$2,136 Millions
- Avg annual capital costs & working capital = US$1,048 Millions
- Avg annual EBITDA = US$921 Millions

- Net Present Value (NPV) using WACC at 11.3% (similar to Goldman Sachs Valuation report (Nov 2007))
- Corporate TAX = Tax free holiday for first 10 years (0%), and 15% thereafter
- Royalty = 2.5% on revenues
- Corporate Structure:
- Gov stake = 25% (10% + 15%)
- SDL = 67.5%

Note:
1) I disregard the calculation of company's depreciation:
- The introduction of company's depreciation will lower TAX and increase cash flow.
2) Royalties have been taken into account in this model
3) Parity US$ vs AUD$ has been reviewed from previous model: change from 0.8 to 0.9
("Like most Australian resource companies, SDL deals in US$ with its customers so any appreciation of the A$ against the US$ has a negative impact when translated for financial reporting purposes - Goldman Sachs, Valuation report Nov 2007")


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## lioness (1 May 2010)

And the rest bleach:


Results of my valuation:
- Number shares on issues = 2,800 Millions
- Extra Revenue cash = US$ 50 Millions (as we assume Gov. stake is 25%)
- PV at 11.3% = US$3,602 Millions
- SDL stake = 67.5%
- NPV at 11.3% = US$2,465 Millions
- Parity US$ vs AUD$ = 0.9
- Value per share in US$ = $0.88
- Value per share in AUD$ = $0.98

Points to note:
Debts
1. With strong net cashflows over the first 4 years in production (2014-2017), the modeling indicated a possible payback period of less than 4 years, with first payment starting from Y2014. In 2017, SDL presents with a net positive cash flows of US$2,856 Million, after a complete repayment of its debt (CAPEX1). This should be enough for SDL to launch a second CAPEX (US$2,800 Million) in 2018, for phase 2 Itabirite: CAPEX 2 is fully funded.

Note a remaining net cash flow of US$56 Million after CAPEX 2 spending.
(re. Graph for Net CashFlow projection in 2017).

2. The model shows SDL having NO DEBT since the full repayment of CAPEX1 in Y2017 (re. Graph "Total CAPEX outstanding" = 0 from that period).

3. With an assumtion of Interest rate = 10%, the total interest costs against CAPEX1 = US$1,417 Million. These costs are much higher in my previous model as debt re-payments were calculated over a period of 15 years.

Net Cash Flows
4. The annual Net cash flow looks very robust after the total debt repayment of CAPEX1, with high annual cashflow reaching around US$1,500 Million mark from Y2018 to Y2022 (re Graph "Net Cash Flow projection" line).
From Y2023 ownwards, the annual net cashflow drop dramatically (nearly half of its highest values) for two main reasons:
- High Annual Operatings costs (Itabirite concentrate), nearly double from US$700 Million to US1,300 Million
- Introduction of 15% TAX from Y2023

Note that we need to factor in with the higher cost of producing Itabirite the fact that also it will bring in a higher selling price. By that stage I guess SDL would also be looking at getting revenues from others using the rail system and port system. I would imagine SDL would have built the Pellet feed and DR concentrate plants and could be treating other companies iron ore and getting revenues from doing that.
Of course the above would involve extra cash spending by SDL or others to produce the plants.

TAX & Royalties
5. Total Royalties = US$656 Million, avg p.a. = US$26 Million.
Total TAX = US$2,010 Million, avg p.a. = US$134 Million
Total TAX + Royalties = US$2,666 Million

Royalties have been taken into account in this model.
TAX could be less if I take into account company's depreciation.

NPV Profile (Net Present Value)
6. Net Present Values (NPV) are negative during the first three years due to the introduction of CAPEX1. NPV remains flat (US$0) from period 2013 till 2016 as Net Cash Flows are being used to repay debt of CAPEX 1 and to funding CAPEX 2.

NPV starts growing substantially from Y2018 ownwards after total refund of CAPEX1, and drop significantly from Y2023 due to high operating costs of Itabirite phase 2 and also the introduction of TAX.


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## lioness (1 May 2010)

And the rest bleach:

Graph "NPV" line shows a very nice trend, which decreases slowly over time (it's normal).

A high NPV in this model can be explained by a combination of several factors:
Having a strong annual revenue, it is possible for SDL to:
1. Repay its initial debt/CAPEX1 quicker, in less than 4 years after starting production. The project has actually a 6-7 year payback period (same findings as Goldman Sachs Valuation in 2007)
2. Fully funded its second CAPEX for phase 2 Itabirite
3. Taking advantage to free all its debts before the introduction of TAX (starting Y2023, while SDL is debt free from 2017)

As a result, the annual Net Cash flows looks robust from 2018 ownwards.

7. Estimates SP = AUD$0.98 , which is much better in this model thanks to the quick debt re-payment.

Note: this estimates propel SP to AUD$1.10 if I change parity US$ vs AUD$ from 0.9 to 0.8 (from my previous model).

PART II - Project Funding Strategies
Project funding now takes another dimension and more paticularly for Junior Mining companies, with the recent GFC.
Funding selection criterias sit on both sides, not only from lenders but also from good mining company. To explain why project funding could be lenghtly for SDL, one needs to understand the choice for a potential JV/Partner is not an easy task.
Adopting a wrong strategy and they could go bust during worst situation (GFC): even with all the different options below, some of the juniors could be extinct by the time the bottom in equity and commodity markets is over.

Recall on what happened during the last GFC (Great Financial crisis):
Impacts during GFC:
As a consequence of liquidity crisis and credit freeze :
- pessimistic companies report difficulty borrowing money
- no ability to pay off high debts
- Different toll on different Securities
1. Companies filed for bankruptcy as resources equity financing become nearly impossible (bank not willing to lend)
2. Very Dilutive Equity Financing
3. Re-negociation Debt Covenants with risk re-pricing and re-rating companies
(bank likely to re-negociate debts with very higher interest and more dilution)
4. Funds drying up, target prices dropping, not healthy balance sheets

Surviving Downturn:
1. Layoffs, slash spending, and weather the storm
2. Seek creative, or non-traditional financing strategies in the secondary market to continue advancing the ccompany, and prepare for the next upturn
3. Off-take Agreements with strategic Investors/Partners
4. Raising capital to cover on-going projects, but with high yield debt financing
5. Merge or acquisitions
6. Sell assets

Funding the project - who does what?
From the above, lets examine different options of SDL funding, what are the risks (on both sides) and selection
criterias, and how will be likely the deal(s):

What the market (lenders) wants to see, and how to position for that:
1. Find a partner with a healthy balance sheet, robust operations and a track record.
2. Limited debt on balance sheet: beware of leverage, unless its manageable.
- size of loan, ability and duration to refund debt. longer is the debt, the risks are higher (on both sides)
3. Project with a stable cashflow.
4. Growth opportunities: find assets that have upside and find qualities exploration properties.
5. strong management: find management team with proven success.

Option 1 : fully debt funds (unlikely for SDL):
Who will likely be involved in funding: Bank/Financial Institution

What will be the likely deal(s):
Interest rate is important as this is the lender main resources, but they also want a guaranty in case the company cannot payback their debt. In my view, the bank will look for D/E in high range 30~50 (between 30:70 or 50:50) at an appropriate price at the time of issuance. This could represent a big dilution for SDL even at 30:70.

What SDL wants to see:
- Not a good deal as risks are very high
- Get a funding for project, but has a high dilution at the start, and that could cripple its future development.
- Cannot plan for growth (projects expansion) in medium term until debt refund at certain level
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Drop in sales: less demand, FOB price drop below
operating costs
- Loss in revenues if cannot guarantes sales
- SDL could no longer afford to payback debt
- Bank could Re-negociate Debt Covenants with risk re-pricing
- Anticipate for high dilution if need to raise capital to survive (high borrowing costs)
- Could go bust if not enough cash and over-geared

Option 2 : Funding with Debt/Equity (stake in company) : not a best deal
Who will likely be involved in funding: Bank/Financial Institution,JV Partners

What will be the likely deal(s):
- Similar to option 1 but with Debt/Equity as a guarantee for Banks or as a participation/investment in company for JV/Partners
- JV/Partners could propose a low or free interest rate, and in my view with a stake in company in the 20~30 range
(between 20:80 or 30:70)

What SDL wants to see:
- not a best deal as risks are still high, however debt could be limited with quick refund as low or free interest rate
- High dilution at the start, SP will slowly recover
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Similar to option 1 but have a better chance to survive if debt could be limited

Option 3 : Funding with Debt/Equity and off-take agreements: (good option)
Who will likely be involved in funding: Chinese/Japanese Steel Mills help arrange finance for security over offtake.

What will be the likely deal(s):
Conditions for an Off-take and strategic Investors/Parners
- Explorer with good projects. The company must have a mining project with measurable producion expected
- Want to secure resources with a better prices in LT
- Usually companies get an up-front cash paymeent, plus as a sweat condition (for example fixed price on the metals/minerals)
- Interest rate could be low or free, and in my view with D/E ratio around 5~10 (between 5:95 and 10:90)

What SDL wants to see:
- A good option for SDL as they can secure a partner (finance and sales)
- Less dilution and with low or free interest rate, payback debt will be quicker.
- Overseas strong financial partner to provide both Equity/Debt financing, combined with an off-take contract, representing pure relationship business (essentially important in bear markets):
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Slash spending and weather the storm
- Minimum sales guaranted through Off-take agreements
- Proceed with acquisition if get enough cash: buy AVIMA (lol)

Option 4 : Funding with offtake agreement: JV Partners (excellent option)
similar to option 3, but with no Debt/Equity

Who will be likely involved in funding: Chinese/Japanese Steel Mills wanting to diversify their iron supplies and to break the monopoly of the big three miners.

What will be the likely deal(s):
- JV/Partner will fund for the capital costs of the project
- Interest rate could be low or free
- They look for explorer with good projects. The company must have a mining project with measurable producion expected
- They want to secure resources with a better prices over LT.
- Usually companies get an up-front cash paymeent, plus as a sweat condition (for example fixed price on the metals/minerals)

What SDL wants to see:
- An excellent option for SDL as they can secure a partner (finance and sales)
- No dilution and with low or free interest rate, payback debt will be quicker.
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Slowdown spending
- Minimum sales guaranted through Off-take agreements
- Proceed with acquisition and prepare for the next upturn

Option 5 : Take over target (best option)
Could happen anytime as long as SDL has proven resources. Not to forget a high quantity of DSO (if SDL can get above 500Mt) is the main attraction for Steel mills and the big boys.

How SDL could target good options (option 3 or 4). What SDL needs to do?
- Prove its reserves and bring more DSO (at least 350Mt)
We have to consider that if Mt Nabeba ends up producing 300 to 500 million tonnes of DSO plus Itabirite,the DSO from Mbarga and Nabeba could then extend the DSO resource from 500 to 700 million tonnes. This would then extend the time line for producing DSO to twice the years already factored in.They would then be looking to be selling DSO and Itabirite at the same time.
Meridional could be brought into the equation as well as it seems to have high grade iron ore.
Metzimevin has not got large quantities of DSO, but it is higher grade than Mbarga and has a lot of Itabirite around it.


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## lioness (1 May 2010)

Conclusion
Option 1 or 2 is unlikely to happen, and I would imagine those 2 options were the one proposed by Banks or JV/partners last year. SDL is in bargaining power, and I can't see them taking further risks after all their hard works: SDL has certainly learned lessons during GFC and those things could happen again. At the worst there would be no deal, and delay could go for an extra 6 to 12 months, but during this time they could certainly afford drilling for more DSO as they got now 3 purchased drill rigs and has cheap labor at hand. Their position will keep strengthening over time and will lock into a better deal once the opportunity will present.

Also consider that the result from the above modeling rather conservative, using SDL avg FOB price of US$62.20/t, under the normal DSO at a price of around US$90 per tonne. That could be a reason for SDL not being in too much of a hurry to sign up to any deal until the price negotiations gave some indication as to the direction it was going. SDL have always been very conservative with the DSO price they use in their calculations, always been well below selling prices at the time of calculations. Around 20 to 25% below I believe.

In my view, option 3 or 4 will be likely the one we'll see on the table for this year:
- With EximBank building relations with The Cameroon Government through loans and free cash for projects. I think they are looking for more involvement in Cameroon and to not be known as the Chinese Government Bank that was involved in dirty dealings in Gabon through CEMEC and Belinga.

References
Breaking monopoly of the big three miners
"China's top steelmaker Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd (Baosteel) on Thursday said the existing term pricing system for iron ore does not benefit steel and iron ore companies as ore supplies have become tight.
Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel, said the steelmaker is now diversifying its iron ore sources in Africa, Canada and South America to tide over the tight supply situation.
Xu said it is important for steel companies to diversify their iron supplies as it will help them to have a bigger
say in the pricing talks and also help break the monopoly of the big three miners."
((Baosteel - (China Daily) 2010-03-26)

Example of deals
- Mitsubishi Materials Corp. purchased 25% equity interest in Copper Mountain Project (CUM: TSX) for $28.75m, arranged a $250m project loan, and contract to purchase all the copper con from the mine for 10 yrs.

- Korea Resource Corp (KORES) 30% acq. of Baja Mining Corp. (BAJ: TSX) for US$435m of project funding and 30% Off-Take Rights on Commercial Terms & 30% Completion Guarantee on Project Debt

- Atlas Iron Ltd has entered into a joint-venture agreement with Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) for Atlass Abydos project.
Atlas was able to seal a port access deal with Fortescue for its new Port Hedland iron ore export terminal. FMG
may earn a 60% joint-venture interest in the iron ore rights.

- BC Iron Limited (BCI) said that Nullagine Joint Venture, its 50% joint venture with Fortescue Metals Group
Limited (FMG), had secured its first off-take agreements with a Hong Kong-based industrial and trading company. The off-take agreement includes US$50 million in pre-payments to fund the development of the mine.

- Example of Shougang Finance/Steel Manufacturing
click here to see Shougang report
http://www.shougang-intl.com.hk/Doc/investor/epr090415.pdf

Why SDL is a different kind of animal
"While we recognise there are risks associated with an investment in SDL, we feel much of these are captured in the current share price. We feel the upside if SDL gets it right and develops Mbalam at a 35mtpa rate together with our favourable iron ore view outweigh the risk profile.

The key attraction of the Mbalam Project is its shear (potential) size and potential of high grade hematite deposit rather than a magnetite.

We believe the M&A theme in the iron ore market will continue. Given SDL's potential size we consider it a takeover candidate.

As SDL is still an explorer / developer, we believe exploration news flow could be a continuing positive catalyst for the stock."
(Goldman Sachs Valuation report - Nov 2007)


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## indigotiling (2 May 2010)

I was just wondering,Tis new miners tax MR RUDD is talking about,will this make investors look elsewere for iron ore?As prices in australia may increase due to new tax?
Also lioness your calculations are saying that sundance will be 89 cents,Is this the value once offtake/partners are announced and construction of mine has began?
I actually thought they would be around the $2 area.
Also thats a pretty impressive explanation you have written loiness.
Keep up the good work.

Iv been holding sdl for quite a while,still believe this is a volcano ready to erupt!!!! J ust gotta be patient.
Projects of this size dont happen over night.


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## The Muffin Man (2 May 2010)

bleach8 said:


> dont get me wrong please! i have started to accumulating SDL for almost a year. And I have seen a lot positive news like this before. I m just frustrated with the timing …the timeline… last year this time …*ppl in this forum were expecting the finance deal would be announced “in the next few months*” ….
> 
> I wont get out , as I still believe in the potential of the company like you…but to be honest, long time retail holder of SDL would be frustrated after reading the QR….
> 
> All I want is a more realistic and specific time line from the management …




That's your problem isn't it? People in this forum know absolutely nothing about what is going on behind closed doors, so why would you base your opinions on what people here "think" or "expect?" 

We have been told that confidentiality agreements are in place with all prospective partners, so why would you expect a running commentary from SDL about how things are progressing? Simply put, they can't tell you because they are bound by the same agreements.

Go back through the timelines and re-read them. There was no mention of PUBLICALLY announcing any strategic partners in March-April.

Why has DB and UBS bought over 5% of this stock, and why does Talbot, a director, still hold a massive percentage of the company?

If you can't be patient, sell your shares to me so we don't have to hear the incessant complaining from you.


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## indigotiling (3 May 2010)

Probably good news for sundance,seeing the latest news,this big tax for mining companys in australia is making shareholders and investors scared and look maybe for oversea companys for a better investment (sundance?)
I think this is an advantage for sundance being in sth africa.


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## LRG (4 May 2010)

Hello all,

What has happened to SDL today!  appoint a new senior manger announcement. 19.1M shares traded today closed on the low of 14.5 c down nearly 10% from the previous close of 16.0 c.


not good when i recently topped up at 16.5 c!


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## Pythagerous (4 May 2010)

Just following the market LRG. The market has been largely affected by Greece and the Henry Review. If you take a look at a lot of miners based in Australia, they have taken an absolute hammering, which is what has driven the overall market down.


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## lioness (4 May 2010)

Taken a hammering today, let's hope it can bounce. Needs some sensitive news out of the blue unexpected.

I wouldn't worry LRG as it has always bounced back. Should be no different as the RRT doesn't affect SDL.

Reckon DB or UBS bought heaps today as they manipulated down in my view, triggering stop losses.


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## bleach8 (4 May 2010)

lioness said:


> Taken a hammering today, let's hope it can bounce. Needs some sensitive news out of the blue unexpected.
> 
> I wouldn't worry LRG as it has always bounced back. Should be no different as the RRT doesn't affect SDL.
> 
> Reckon DB or UBS bought heaps today as they manipulated down in my view, triggering stop losses.




generally, price movement comes after volume for SDL ..so there wont be any positive sensitive news out of the blue ...just wish there will be unexpected high volume push price up...and then follows with news

Also, the net volume is selling down, isnt it? and 20m shares traded, 10% down ...how do you know that UBS and DB didn't sell heaps? what concerns me is the super profit tax doesnt affect SDL, and it is still going down 10% with hight volume. lets hope there wont be any unexpected -ve news tomorrow.


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## Speculator (4 May 2010)

bleach8 said:


> generally, price movement comes after volume for SDL ..so there wont be any positive sensitive news out of the blue ...just wish there will be unexpected high volume push price up...and then follows with news
> 
> Also, the net volume is selling down, isnt it? and 20m shares traded, 10% down ...how do you know that UBS and DB didn't sell heaps? what concerns me is the super profit tax doesnt affect SDL, and it is still going down 10% with hight volume. lets hope there wont be any unexpected -ve news tomorrow.




If there was unexpected negative news to come the sp would have fallen further than it has imo.

The decrease in sp is probably people being risk adverse with all the uncertainty atm (greece, henry, dow, china).

Also alot of people in the mining sector would have had margin calls today some people probs just needed the coin.


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## lioness (5 May 2010)

Speculator said:


> If there was unexpected negative news to come the sp would have fallen further than it has imo.
> 
> The decrease in sp is probably people being risk adverse with all the uncertainty atm (greece, henry, dow, china).
> 
> Also alot of people in the mining sector would have had margin calls today some people probs just needed the coin.




Looking bad LRG and friends. Not even bouncing today. I suspect this will be sitting at 13 cents for a few months until the next drilling results. We need a partner announcement and quick!!


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## 5haretrader (5 May 2010)

Of course I am nowhere near as knowledgeable as other members that discuss on this thread so correct me if I am out of place but I can't help but feel shortchanged with investing in these guys. 

It seems to be commonly accepted for SDL that news follows volume however in the past few days we have seen a 2cent drop on the back of nothing to do with the company itself. As the current project is in Africa, the Australian resource tax should have had no affect on the mindset of investors, if anything, it should have made SDL more attractive!

Yes the world's markets have taken a recent dive, but it is hard to contemplate what would have driven down the SP by 12% in just a few days.

From a realistic perspective, how long are we looking at for a partner to finally give SDL some backing?


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## bleach8 (5 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Of course I am nowhere near as knowledgeable as other members that discuss on this thread so correct me if I am out of place but I can't help but feel shortchanged with investing in these guys.
> 
> It seems to be commonly accepted for SDL that news follows volume however in the past few days we have seen a 2cent drop on the back of nothing to do with the company itself. As the current project is in Africa, the Australian resource tax should have had no affect on the mindset of investors, if anything, it should have made SDL more attractive!
> 
> ...




This is why i was so frustrated after their QR last Friday. SDL needs working on its marketing. It has hardly mentioned by any major newspapers often. 
It has potential for sure. But again, my impression is the management is not in rush at all, and nothing will likely be announced after the Congo drilling in its advanced stage. But it might be a good thing which will lead a better deal.  Again, the management is still very firm on the financial deal before end of 2010. 
Pls don’t criticize me…all I want is the management to do a bit of marketing or little update announcements to support the share price.  
Overall, the super tax is a good thing in the long term….it will increase the cost of all aus based iron ore producers which will support the iron ore spot price as their costs of production is higher.


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## lioness (5 May 2010)

bleach8 said:


> This is why i was so frustrated after their QR last Friday. SDL needs working on its marketing. It has hardly mentioned by any major newspapers often.
> It has potential for sure. But again, my impression is the management is not in rush at all, and nothing will likely be announced after the Congo drilling in its advanced stage. But it might be a good thing which will lead a better deal.  Again, the management is still very firm on the financial deal before end of 2010.
> Pls don’t criticize me…all I want is the management to do a bit of marketing or little update announcements to support the share price.
> Overall, the super tax is a good thing in the long term….it will increase the cost of all aus based iron ore producers which will support the iron ore spot price as their costs of production is higher.




They have previously promised a partner by end of June and given nbeba deposit will definitely been proven in the next 2 months with JORC, it may well happen. What I can see is UBS and DB playing with it every day. This will stop once the partner is announced. Likely target 40 cents on this news. Just be patient now.


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## 5haretrader (5 May 2010)

lioness said:


> What I can see is UBS and DB playing with it every day. This will stop once the partner is announced. Likely target 40 cents on this news. Just be patient now.




Provided the partnership deal comes through I really do hope your figures for the future are in the ballpark of realism. I read your very detailed analysis on the previous page of posts and I must say you know a lot about this company. Kudos to you for a great analysis for where us as shareholders stand.


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## bleach8 (5 May 2010)

lioness said:


> They have previously promised a partner by end of June and given nbeba deposit will definitely been proven in the next 2 months with JORC, it may well happen. What I can see is UBS and DB playing with it every day. This will stop once the partner is announced. Likely target 40 cents on this news. Just be patient now.




JORC been proven in 2 months? I m sure it will take longer, their new rig wont reach Congo in June, I am hoping for Auguest - October. the securing of stategic partners will dependent on SDL proving up its resources through drilling. 
20% of my holding in SDL is under CFD, i just hope it doesnt drop down to 11c which will triger my margin call. i am considering buy another 10k USD of SDL, but even at current low price,m it wont do too much on my overall cost base.


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## LRG (5 May 2010)

14.0 c close today with new low of 13.5 c and a whopping 21.2M traded again.

IMO US markets will bounce a bit tonite??

RIO, BHP etc bounced today.

Hopefully, SDL will claw back to a 15.0 c close tmw.

I agree, marketing and news in national newspapers in non-existet - pretty poor selling on SDL's part.

They need to stick by what they say and get a funding partner announced ASAP!!

Not just let it drag out to late in the year.


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## springhill (5 May 2010)

LRG said:


> 14.0 c close today with new low of 13.5 c and a whopping 21.2M traded again.




Hi LRG no offence or disrespect intended but with 2.709 billion shares on issue in SDL, 21.2 mill traded is hardly 'whopping' if my maths is right its only 0.777 of a percent.
Being a former holder of SDL i never paid any attention to the volume unless it hit 50 mill + and even then it never meant alot, only that an announcement would be due the next day.
Don't place too much emphasis on volume alone.

My only.
Best of luck


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## The Muffin Man (5 May 2010)

Quite a bit of negativity here. I wonder, is it only SDL shares that everyone here holds? It must be the only share that people here hold, judging by the complete lack of understanding as to why SDL is currently heading slightly south in share price. Check out the performance of the ASX since Monday, and check out the performance of the mining sector since Monday. Therein lies your answer. Check the performance of SDL against the ASX since October 2009, they have been a mirror image. When panic sets in and people sell is when the patient and astute really make their money.


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## 5haretrader (5 May 2010)

Muffin Man - The confusion herein lies that Sundance have a highly promising project just sitting and waiting in Africa for a partner to scoop it up. Factors that affect Australian resource companies working in Australia recently like the Super Tax really should have no affect at all for SDL in the coming years. If anything, this should be drawing more interest from Australian investors looking elsewhere for their fix on resource stocks. Ofcourse there will be some correlation to the market but the SP has fallen 12.5% in just a few days and overseas market movement alone would not induce such a drop.


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## The Muffin Man (5 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Muffin Man - The confusion herein lies that Sundance have a highly promising project just sitting and waiting in Africa for a partner to scoop it up. Factors that affect Australian resource companies working in Australia recently like the Super Tax really should have no affect at all for SDL in the coming years. If anything, this should be drawing more interest from Australian investors looking elsewhere for their fix on resource stocks. Ofcourse there will be some correlation to the market but the SP has fallen 12.5% in just a few days and overseas market movement alone would not induce such a drop.




SDL is a speculative stock, it will often move large percentages in short period of time. It's also the nature of being worth 15c and then moving 0.5c or 1c, it shows as a big percentage move.

The super tax won't effect SDL, but it's going to effect much of the market. Again, jump onto SDL's page on the ASX website, and look at the graph that tracks SDL's price movement and includes the ASX's movement also. It's an identical pattern since October 2009. SDL will move with the market until news comes from the company, and if you don't expect 5-10% movements in one or two days, maybe investing in a spec stock at 15c wasn't the greatest of moves. If the ASX was to turn around and hit 5000 again, SDL would be back sitting at or above 15c and we would all be sitting here speculating about when it will break 17c support.

Like I said, all this shows is how quickly some people gett worried and/or panic. Nothing about the company has changed since 2 weeks ago, it's just that the ASX and DOW have taken a beat down, and SDL has followed suit. This isn't rocket science and it happens continually with this stock, but some just fail to see the picture.


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## LRG (5 May 2010)

i have been buying this stock since 2007.  My average price is 16 cents.  I have paid between 44c and 7c for the stock over this period.
lately, one a month when i get some spare cash i have had the unfortunate experience of buying the highs (e.g. 16.5 c last week).
When i have bills to pay I sell a small parcel - this due to my recent bad lack tends to happen on a low.
Why do i keep buying - because the news from SDL is always "we are soon to advise a partner".  And, if when this does happen it spikes to 40c I want to be holding as many as I can.
I believe in this stock long term - ALL of my Super chips, my personal chips and my company chips (spare cash) is on SDL - it is just a lot longer wait then i ever expected (based on the SDL news/announcements over the last 18 months).
I currently hold somewher betwwen 1 - 3 M of these babies (not going to disclose eact #) nothing like some but in my world - if this goes I am SET FOR LIFE! If this fizzles I am absolutely STUFFED. 
Do the sums on my holding - it hurts when it goes from 16.5c to 14 c in a few days!!!
Long term I hope TALBOT has his 20% in the right place.  I know what he achieved with MCCarthur coal.  This is another fortesque IMO.
One day I hope this will break through 40c soon, then $1, then $2 then $5 then $10 - and I will sell down as it goes.  This is just my HOPE.  I am not ramping - could be completely DREAMING.


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## 5haretrader (5 May 2010)

I appreciate your explanation and I'm sure many, including myself, would be hoping that SDL is simply following market trends. There's not much that can be done about it from a personal perspective so we just got to toughen up and weather the storm ey


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## bleach8 (5 May 2010)

LRG said:


> i have been buying this stock since 2007.  My average price is 16 cents.  I have paid between 44c and 7c for the stock over this period.
> lately, one a month when i get some spare cash i have had the unfortunate experience of buying the highs (e.g. 16.5 c last week).
> When i have bills to pay I sell a small parcel - this due to my recent bad lack tends to happen on a low.
> Why do i keep buying - because the news from SDL is always "we are soon to advise a partner".  And, if when this does happen it spikes to 40c I want to be holding as many as I can.
> ...




Hi, I deeply understand how you feel…I believe long-term holders generally have this kind of feeling when we hold it for more than a year…right?

I don't have 1-3m SDL, but I have about 500k-1m. I m in my mid-20s, so it's a lot of money for me as well …(all I have).. 

Something good has to happen this year, so just be positive …   i never think it will worth 5 or 10 $$...my target is $1. maybe 40c by the end of 2010....


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## lioness (5 May 2010)

LRG said:


> i have been buying this stock since 2007.  My average price is 16 cents.  I have paid between 44c and 7c for the stock over this period.
> lately, one a month when i get some spare cash i have had the unfortunate experience of buying the highs (e.g. 16.5 c last week).
> When i have bills to pay I sell a small parcel - this due to my recent bad lack tends to happen on a low.
> Why do i keep buying - because the news from SDL is always "we are soon to advise a partner".  And, if when this does happen it spikes to 40c I want to be holding as many as I can.
> ...




LRG,

I thank you for being honest here as I have also gone the same way you have. I have put everything into this stock(over 1.5 million shares). Pretty much for the same reasons you have. What is really a let down is the amount of time between promises of a partner and the same line being used every qrtly report. Why did they promise it back in October without having a hope of delivering until 1 year later? What a let down.

My only hope left in this stock is the fact DB and UBS have bought in 5% substantial recently. That is a vote of confidence and means things are happening behind the scenes as we speak.

By the way, Muffin man is correct, you cannot hold a speccie like SDL without it expecting to go up and down 15% every month. Day traders are have a party with this stock. All i can say is hang in there LRG. My guess is by June we will see some real SP appreciation.

PS Talbot's holding is an average of 40 cents, so I expect $1 minimum from this otherwise Talbot wouldn't have tied up so much money for a piddly profit in my view.


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## The Muffin Man (6 May 2010)

lioness said:


> LRG,
> 
> I thank you for being honest here as I have also gone the same way you have. I have put everything into this stock(over 1.5 million shares). Pretty much for the same reasons you have. What is really a let down is the amount of time between promises of a partner and the same line being used every qrtly report. Why did they promise it back in October without having a hope of delivering until 1 year later? What a let down.
> 
> ...




Apart from being some of the riskiest investment strategies I've seen in a very long time (lioness and LRG), let me have a go at explaining for you why I think there have been hold ups with project financing;

In the middle of 2009, the company thought they would be able to secure the strategic partners with the level of DSO resources they had JORC defined at the time. I think they gambled, and it didn’t pay off. If you go through all of the recent CAPEX and price modelling, you will see they use a figure off 300mt+ DSO in their calculations. They don’t currently show that amount of DSO in their resource definitions. Before a company signs up to the project, they are going to want to know for almost certain, that 300mt+ of DSO is actually present in the SDL tenements. This level of DSO is crucial to the project’s success, as it’s the DSO that’s going to pay back the CAPEX quickly. This is why, in the middle of 2009 and later on that year, the company decided to enter into the next capital raising, the funds of which would be used to develop Nabeba, with the shallow drilling searching specifically for more DSO. Nabeba was never initially in the development plan for Mbalam, SDL thought they had enough DSO there to get the project up and running, and they were probably right in this assessment pre-GFC. Post-GFC, this changed, and a possible partner would want to see a quicker CAPEX payback period as it becomes a much less risky investment.

In short - SDL thought the resources at Mbalam would be enough to get the operation off the ground, and in mid 2009 they went to look for partners. After the GFC crisis, the possible partners would have wanted to see more DSO and a quicker CAPEX payback period than what SDL currently had JORC defined. SDL then went through another capital raising so they could shallow drill Nabeba and bring to account further DSO resources, and bring what they have JORC defined in line with their financial modelling.

That's my interpretations reading between the lines.


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## lioness (6 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> Apart from being some of the riskiest investment strategies I've seen in a very long time (lioness and LRG), let me have a go at explaining for you why I think there have been hold ups with project financing;
> 
> In the middle of 2009, the company thought they would be able to secure the strategic partners with the level of DSO resources they had JORC defined at the time. I think they gambled, and it didn’t pay off. If you go through all of the recent CAPEX and price modelling, you will see they use a figure off 300mt+ DSO in their calculations. They don’t currently show that amount of DSO in their resource definitions. Before a company signs up to the project, they are going to want to know for almost certain, that 300mt+ of DSO is actually present in the SDL tenements. This level of DSO is crucial to the project’s success, as it’s the DSO that’s going to pay back the CAPEX quickly. This is why, in the middle of 2009 and later on that year, the company decided to enter into the next capital raising, the funds of which would be used to develop Nabeba, with the shallow drilling searching specifically for more DSO. Nabeba was never initially in the development plan for Mbalam, SDL thought they had enough DSO there to get the project up and running, and they were probably right in this assessment pre-GFC. Post-GFC, this changed, and a possible partner would want to see a quicker CAPEX payback period as it becomes a much less risky investment.
> 
> ...




That is very true muffin man and reckon you are spot on here. Nbeba is only 2 months away now from defining JORC is it not?? So really a partner is waiting for August at the latest. Trouble is if the market collapses now, I can see SDL going back to 8 cents.


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## The Muffin Man (6 May 2010)

I don't think a maiden JORC resource from Nabeba will be too far away. SDL is mainly only drilling shallow holes, because all they are wanting to find at this point is DSO. The company just needs to get the DSO figures up to the amounts spoken of in the investor presentations then they should be in a greatly enhanced position to negotiate with potential partners. The Nabeba deposit is much like the Mbalam deposit in composition, so SDL will have a lot of knowledge up their sleeve regarding the best way to attack the drilling and get the DSO results quickly. If SDL posts a maiden resource of say 150mt+ of DSO at Nabeba, and is then still unable to close out partner negotiations by early 2011 at the latest, then I would start to become concerned.


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## lioness (6 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> I don't think a maiden JORC resource from Nabeba will be too far away. SDL is mainly only drilling shallow holes, because all they are wanting to find at this point is DSO. The company just needs to get the DSO figures up to the amounts spoken of in the investor presentations then they should be in a greatly enhanced position to negotiate with potential partners. The Nabeba deposit is much like the Mbalam deposit in composition, so SDL will have a lot of knowledge up their sleeve regarding the best way to attack the drilling and get the DSO results quickly. If SDL posts a maiden resource of say 150mt+ of DSO at Nabeba, and is then still unable to close out partner negotiations by early 2011 at the latest, then I would start to become concerned.




Muffin man, if SDL cannot secure a partner by 2010 end, I will be selling for sure. They have had over 1.5 years and with DB and UBS in now as substant. holders, I reckon that was the tick to say things are actually happening behind the scenes and not just bulldust from the CEO. This will be above 20 cents by end of June. Just watch.


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## Zodiac (6 May 2010)

Gabon is reviewing its Chinese connection to develop Belinga? Why? Because of the lack of desire by the Chinese, after three years, to go further and develop it. Chinese may want to take it off the market for now but do not seem like going to the next step.

In jumps VALE who are negotiating with Gabon to take it off the Chinese. Now we have one less significant player interested in SDL. The future partnership list may be getting less and less and so the stagnant share price.

ZODIAC


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## lioness (6 May 2010)

By the way, FMG went up 5 fold when they announced their funding/partner and the same should happen to SDL. At the very worst 40 cents in my opinion.


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## The Muffin Man (6 May 2010)

Zodiac said:


> Gabon is reviewing its Chinese connection to develop Belinga? Why? Because of the lack of desire by the Chinese, after three years, to go further and develop it. Chinese may want to take it off the market for now but do not seem like going to the next step.
> 
> In jumps VALE who are negotiating with Gabon to take it off the Chinese. Now we have one less significant player interested in SDL. The future partnership list may be getting less and less and so the stagnant share price.
> 
> ZODIAC




Where did you get the information from that said Gabon took Belinga off the Chinese because of lack of desire? I think there is a lot more to that situation that you are reporting.


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## lioness (6 May 2010)

Zodiac said:


> Gabon is reviewing its Chinese connection to develop Belinga? Why? Because of the lack of desire by the Chinese, after three years, to go further and develop it. Chinese may want to take it off the market for now but do not seem like going to the next step.
> 
> In jumps VALE who are negotiating with Gabon to take it off the Chinese. Now we have one less significant player interested in SDL. The future partnership list may be getting less and less and so the stagnant share price.
> 
> ZODIAC




Iron ore prices are predicted to pass old time highs on next valuation, so there are other players around. Once they JORC and prove reserves, game on! Rudd's rrt tax has helped SDL secure a partner now, not hurt it.


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## lioness (6 May 2010)

By the way, these jobs were advertised for SDL:

* Study / Project Director [Ref: SDL401]
As we progress definitive studies, we are seeking expressions of interest from experienced and proven project leaders who can join the team and drive the development of the Mbalam Project and work to achieve our vision of establishing a global iron ore business.


* General Manager Infrastructure & Rail [Ref: SDL403]
With the extensive magnitude of infrastructure development required in support of the iron ore project, we are seeking a proven and renowned rail and infrastructure specialist for the position of General Manager Infrastructure & Rail. This role will be pivotal to the development of the Mbalam Project and the achievement of our vision of establishing a global iron ore business.


* Metallurgy Manager [Ref: SDL404]
Reporting to the General Manager Mining, this is an exciting opportunity for highly experienced Minerals Processing professional. Based in Perth with the project team, this key role will manage consultant groups doing flowsheet design and deliver optimum flowsheet alternatives. The position is focussed upon developing strategies for ore processing and product optimisation to meet market requirements. This will include establishing testing programs and managing analytical & testing laboratories


* Project Controls (Contracts) Manager [Ref: SDL405]
The Project Control Manager is a critical role with responsibility to develop and implement contract management systems and oversee project estimating, tender package development, consultant agreements and contract procurement initiatives.


* Project Engineer [Ref: SDL406]
The Project Engineer works closely with the Study team to ensure the management and delivery of feasibility and project development related tasks within the operating environment of West Africa. The role will manage investigation studies and construction projects in support of exploration and project development activities.



* Exploration Geologists [Ref: SDL407]
With increased development activity in-country, we now have the requirement for additional experienced Exploration Geologists to join our exploration teams in-country.



* Project Support Officer [Ref: SDL408]
Due to continued growth, we are looking for an efficient and experienced Project Support Officer/Administration Officer with preferably mining and/or geology support experience to join our friendly team in our busy Perth office.

3 guesses at what this is telling you guys. Get ready!


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## bleach8 (6 May 2010)

lioness said:


> By the way, these jobs were advertised for SDL:
> 
> * Study / Project Director [Ref: SDL401]
> As we progress definitive studies, we are seeking expressions of interest from experienced and proven project leaders who can join the team and drive the development of the Mbalam Project and work to achieve our vision of establishing a global iron ore business.
> ...





these jobs have been on their website for a long time , since the start of this year................


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## jonojpsg (6 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> *I don't think a maiden JORC resource from Nabeba will be too far away.*




Agreed Muffin Man.  To get an inferred resource will not take more than a few more holes as the level of confidence at this level is low.  The calculations done here previously by myself and one other (can't remember who) are pretty much what an inferred resource is - here are a ring of holes with average 60m intersection @ 60+% Fe and a few holes in the middle.  Calculate the approx volume and assume a density and bobs your uncle you've got an inferred resource.  Forgive me any geos for oversimplifying but from what I can see that's how it works.

My guess would be an inferred of between 100-200Mt by end June latest.

Still, given I'm not holding atm (had to ditch a week ago), I'd be pretty happy to jump back in at 8c


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## 5haretrader (7 May 2010)

Had a brief look at the market depth this morning and it looks like traders are getting ready for a bit of a frenzy with Sundance today. It would be nice for the market to hold its own for once rather than react to the demise of the European economy  One can only hope.


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## lioness (7 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Had a brief look at the market depth this morning and it looks like traders are getting ready for a bit of a frenzy with Sundance today. It would be nice for the market to hold its own for once rather than react to the demise of the European economy  One can only hope.




Sharetrader, these days are used by the big boys to accumulate. We need one more subtant. introduced to make it 4 of them before news starts flowing. It will happen in the next 2 months.


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## Miner (9 May 2010)

lioness said:


> By the way, these jobs were advertised for SDL:
> 
> * Study / Project Director [Ref: SDL401]
> As we progress definitive studies, we are seeking expressions of interest from experienced and proven project leaders who can join the team and drive the development of the Mbalam Project and work to achieve our vision of establishing a global iron ore business.
> ...





Good collection Lioness. 
i CHECKED  these advertisements in SDL website just now.I have seen few of them in press too. 
However SDL is probably still unsure how they will progress. THe leadership is unsure. IMO probablyt they are despearately looking for some one to buy them at premium than venturing to be a production company. Time will show it in next 12 months. But currently people development is very slow process just to buy time. I have made my comments in your posting from whatever I know from personal interaction. 
DO hold SDL and there is no drama. But to see this one as FMG will take some one like Andrew Forrest and NOT Geoff Wedlock to lead the company.


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## lioness (12 May 2010)

Miner said:


> Good collection Lioness.
> i CHECKED  these advertisements in SDL website just now.I have seen few of them in press too.
> However SDL is probably still unsure how they will progress. THe leadership is unsure. IMO probablyt they are despearately looking for some one to buy them at premium than venturing to be a production company. Time will show it in next 12 months. But currently people development is very slow process just to buy time. I have made my comments in your posting from whatever I know from personal interaction.
> DO hold SDL and there is no drama. But to see this one as FMG will take some one like Andrew Forrest and NOT Geoff Wedlock to lead the company.




Wrong Miner, they will go into production, but MAY be taken out before they get there I suppose by a bigger player and a price talbot is willing to sell.

See link - time to shine soon. I still come back to the fact DB and UBS bought 5% and turned on the light switch for anyone who missed buying in the last year. Now is the time to be holding patiently and things could hot up at any tick of the clock now. Click link.

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...ZnBed2&sig=AHIEtbQ8G63hi1w74R7pVtDdW3t3T-D7pA


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## jonojpsg (12 May 2010)

lioness said:


> Wrong Miner, they will go into production, but MAY be taken out before they get there I suppose by a bigger player and a price talbot is willing to sell.
> 
> See link - time to shine soon. I still come back to the fact DB and UBS bought 5% and turned on the light switch for anyone who missed buying in the last year. Now is the time to be holding patiently and things could hot up at any tick of the clock now. Click link.
> 
> http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...ZnBed2&sig=AHIEtbQ8G63hi1w74R7pVtDdW3t3T-D7pA




Hey lioness, thanks for the doc, it reads beautifully!  

Agreed it will get to production - with a four year payback at $62/t, which currently reads more like, what, $100/t (can't remember what BHP agreed to?), which would bring that back to maybe 2 years, there is little doubt that it will happen IMO.  

Re the price that Talbot would be willing to sell...I don't reckon anything under $1 (eq to $2.7bn MC).  Even then that's still only 2 years worth of net cash at 35Mtpa and $62/t (assuming $22/tonne production costs, which will rise, so maybe 3 years).

Looking like a nice one to pick up lots of right now - just waiting on Nido to take off so I can leverage into this big time


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## Miner (13 May 2010)

lioness said:


> Wrong Miner, they will go into production, but *MAY be taken out before they get there I suppose by a bigger player *and a price talbot is willing to sell.
> 
> A[/url]






Miner said:


> Good collection Lioness.
> xxxxx THe leadership is unsure. *IMO probably they are despearately looking for some one to buy them at premium than venturing to be a production company.* Time will show it in next 12 months. xxxxxDO hold SDL and there is no drama. But to see this one as FMG will take some one like Andrew Forrest and NOT Geoff Wedlock to lead the company.




Dear Lioness

Thanks for your reply to my message.

I am actually pleased to see that you started with disagreeing what I said and then agreed in your own way. 

I love such disagreement and very common in my workplace to get things done.

I have highlighted the text where I said, before SDL becoming a production company they need some one to buy it. 

Yes, you also actually said exactly the same thing - see highlighted text.

I am happy and not complaining any way and thanks for the link - good reading.
Cheers


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## The Muffin Man (13 May 2010)

Miner said:


> Dear Lioness
> 
> Thanks for your reply to my message.
> 
> ...




You're reading Lioness' comments the wrong way Miner. "_THe leadership is unsure. IMO probablyt they are despearately looking for some one to buy them at premium than venturing to be a production company._" is quite some way from "_but MAY be taken out before they get there I suppose by a bigger player_."

Management has never floated the idea of wanting to sell, let alone "be desperately looking for someone to buy them." The stated aim has always been to become a first mover in the area, operating both mining and transport infrastructure. However, as Lioness stated (what I believe she meant with her comments), management might not be able to fend off a challenge if it were to come from another company, and it was at a price that enticed the shareholders. (Talbot most notably)


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## Miner (13 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> You're reading Lioness' comments the wrong way Miner. "_THe leadership is unsure. IMO probablyt they are despearately looking for some one to buy them at premium than venturing to be a production company._" is quite some way from "_but MAY be taken out before they get there I suppose by a bigger player_."
> 
> Management has never floated the idea of wanting to sell, let alone "be desperately looking for someone to buy them." The stated aim has always been to become a first mover in the area, operating both mining and transport infrastructure. However, as Lioness stated (what I believe she meant with her comments), management might not be able to fend off a challenge if it were to come from another company, and it was at a price that enticed the shareholders. (Talbot most notably)




No problemo  Muffin Man

Let us wait for the wheel to roll into year 2012-13 and we will know what happens to Geoff Wedlock and his team to get SDL into motion.

Andrew (Forrest) is a different kind of specy. He is visionary, ex stock broker and astute to get FMG running into a production company. Notwithstanding he was a failure in Ananconda (now Murin Murin) . 

To me it is all learning part of people and I wish Geoff and his team (hence my investment on SDL) to win.


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## lioness (13 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> You're reading Lioness' comments the wrong way Miner. "_THe leadership is unsure. IMO probablyt they are despearately looking for some one to buy them at premium than venturing to be a production company._" is quite some way from "_but MAY be taken out before they get there I suppose by a bigger player_."
> 
> Management has never floated the idea of wanting to sell, let alone "be desperately looking for someone to buy them." The stated aim has always been to become a first mover in the area, operating both mining and transport infrastructure. However, as Lioness stated (what I believe she meant with her comments), management might not be able to fend off a challenge if it were to come from another company, and it was at a price that enticed the shareholders. (Talbot most notably)




That's exactly what I meant muffin man. Miner, this company will not have to wait until 2013 before having a market cap above 1 billion. You need to read the report conducted by RM research to understand market caps at different mining stages such as scoping/feasibility/definitive feasibility. I will try and find the link and post again here.

By the way, notice that fake capping at 14.5 cents which makes everyone sell at 14. Just another part of the game to take out every weak share BEFORE any big news comes along. Very predicatble stuff.


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## lioness (13 May 2010)

Here is the link:

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/5833/sdl_rmresearch_25-8-06.pdf

Make sure you study page 7 which is comparing FMG to SDL and the different market caps and milestones.

This report was done in 2006 but is still relevant.

It states SDL should be worth 17 dollars when JUST going into production. Admittedly there are now more shares on issue then back then but 14 cents to 17 dollars screams upside to me.

Bring on the drilling to complete feasibility and project financing completed and I think conservative $1.00


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## bleach8 (14 May 2010)

lioness said:


> Here is the link:
> 
> http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/5833/sdl_rmresearch_25-8-06.pdf
> 
> ...





Any prediction is meaningless without knowing the terms of the deal ( i.e % of debt and equity, and whether Government decides to acquire another 15%). But I would like to see it reach 40c by the end of the year..


----------



## CarbonSteel (17 May 2010)

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...ZnBed2&sig=AHIEtbQ8G63hi1w74R7pVtDdW3t3T-D7pA

Read it and it looks like a simple (& cheap) ramp to me.

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/...ch_25-8-06.pdf

How is it possible that 4 yr old information and predictions can be relevant today lioness? When this was written SP was about 9.5 cents. A year later it hit 84 cents. Since then it slid and has never been above about 25 cents in 3 long years. Shouldn't we be looking at the current situation and info?


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## lioness (17 May 2010)

Carbon steel, only things matters is a partner to this project. Without it, SDL is worth zero.


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## LRG (17 May 2010)

SDL partners, come out, come out where ever you are; show your faces and make your announcement very, very soon!

Mr Talbot, Wedlock et al - you need to stop the spin the continuous investor presentations / power point slides with the same old super positive outlook and; actually come up with a concrete partner and way foward ASAP.

This has been on the go for 4 years now - just do it! :

please


----------



## lioness (18 May 2010)

LRG said:


> SDL partners, come out, come out where ever you are; show your faces and make your announcement very, very soon!
> 
> Mr Talbot, Wedlock et al - you need to stop the spin the continuous investor presentations / power point slides with the same old super positive outlook and; actually come up with a concrete partner and way foward ASAP.
> 
> ...




Back to 12 cents it looks like as it is slip sliding away today. Agree with you LRG, but how much drilling can you complete before ANYONE is interested.

I have been told this Don Lewis is like a salesman and looking at the share price, no one with any credibility believes in this project and is willing to recommend them. There has been no broker reports since 2008 I noticed as all analysts dont believe in this project. How much more money can they raise to just drill for nothing and present wonderful powerpoint slides that amount to nothing??? They just have another 85 million to continue on for another year to do just this. Not even an update on the partner list is a disgrace from this ceo and speaks volumes that the shortlist is very short.


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## The Muffin Man (18 May 2010)

What a pack of whingers. You are presented with possible reasons why partners are taking time to commit to the project, which you seem to be able to understand, but then a week or two later start to moan again because your get rich quick scheme is yet to pay off.

How about if you are unhappy with the boards performance, you sell your shares?


----------



## LRG (18 May 2010)

no point selling now - they are almost worthless.

if they get to 10c people will dump on mass.

and i will just be a loser whinger again.

whinger


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## lioness (18 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> What a pack of whingers. You are presented with possible reasons why partners are taking time to commit to the project, which you seem to be able to understand, but then a week or two later start to moan again because your get rich quick scheme is yet to pay off.
> 
> How about if you are unhappy with the boards performance, you sell your shares?




Muffin man, I think if the board puts deadlines out, they should meet them. Such as partners will be announced by June. We are getting close so I suppose DB and UBS are a sign of this. People are just sick of waiting 4 years for negative returns, do you blame the whinging?


----------



## jonojpsg (18 May 2010)

lioness said:


> Muffin man, I think if the board puts deadlines out, they should meet them. Such as partners will be announced by June. We are getting close so I suppose DB and UBS are a sign of this. People are just sick of waiting 4 years for negative returns, do you blame the whinging?




Hang on a sec lioness, the article you posted a link to below gave a pretty good sequence of events from when SDL *first bought in* 4 years ago, through the initial resource drilling (07/08), then the GFC which threw a massive spanner in the works, and then the revised way forward which had to include more drilling to get the 350Mt high grade in order to get a partner on board.

IMO they are running extremely well to plan given events over the past two years - as I've estimated, the JORC inferred for Nabeba should be out within the next 2-4 weeks, then a partner locked in shortly after.

I don't think there is any need to whinge about a drifting SP when it is such a news-driven situation - with the news that we WILL get in the next two months, the SP WILL improve - IMO significantly.

Of course, in two months time feel free to throw eggs if nothing happens


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## The Muffin Man (18 May 2010)

lioness said:


> Muffin man, I think if the board puts deadlines out, they should meet them. Such as partners will be announced by June. We are getting close so I suppose DB and UBS are a sign of this. People are just sick of waiting 4 years for negative returns, do you blame the whinging?




Right, and SDL management said DB would come back to them in April/May of this year, with announcements later on in the year. We are currently in May. What's your problem? Your expectations are not based on any facts. SDL never said partners would be introduced to shareholders by Mid-May.

SDL came across the tenements in Cameroon in late 2006. They drilled the tenements for 18 months and defined JORC levels of Iron Ore. Then there was this little event, just a minor one really, called the Global Financial Crisis. I'm not sure if you have heard of it, maybe you have been living on the Moon the last two and a half years with your fingers in your ears? This little event has pushed back the plans of the company. Are you angry with management because they were not able to seucre partners in conditions that were the worst seen since the Great Depression? That SDL couldn't secure $3.3Bn in financing for a green-field project in Africa while the rest of the World was experiencing financial shock after financial shock? Are you really that far detached from reality?

It became obvious to SDL's management after the GFC abated somewhat that they would need higher levels of DSO to make the project more attractive to potential. The company raised further funds, and started shallow drilling Nabeba. 

So, there's the story up to now. Again, what's your problem? Economic conditions can change, which in turn changes projects and project time lines. Simple, basic stuff.


----------



## bleach8 (18 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> Right, and SDL management said DB would come back to them in April/May of this year, with announcements later on in the year. We are currently in May. What's your problem? Your expectations are not based on any facts. SDL never said partners would be introduced to shareholders by Mid-May.




Acutally, it should be March/April for DB to advise the potential partners. 

management and the project are all good ...the problem--all these institutional buyers …I just don't know when will they dump another 9m shares in one go, just like today …and there was no buying at all …!! you would think a project this good should at least have some buying power during today's situation ...right? but ...almost no one bothered to buy today!!!!


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## CarbonSteel (19 May 2010)

LRG said:


> no point selling now - they are almost worthless.
> 
> if they get to 10c people will dump on mass.
> 
> ...




Man I hope they do dump at 10 cents, I'll be waiting to fill up!

On another matter, there seems to be some confusion about when Partner(s) will be announced/introduced.

Can anyone provide SDL documentation which states categorically when this will happen? Won't potential partners want to see Cameroon govt tip in their cash before committing themselves? If this is so, at what point (according to SDL) will this happen?

Anyone know this stuff?


----------



## jonojpsg (19 May 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Man I hope they do dump at 10 cents, I'll be waiting to fill up!
> 
> On another matter, there seems to be some confusion about when Partner(s) will be announced/introduced.
> 
> ...




Nothing definitive in the last few major announcements Carbon - quarterly, open briefing, market update, etc. all referred to ongoing discussions with potential strategic partners and Cam govt but apart from saying that it should all be successfully concluded prior to end 2010 in readiness for construction start beginning of 2011, there was no specific date mentioned for announcement of partner.

DB was *supposed* to be putting forward preferred partner(s) in Mar/Apr, and final Mbalam convention was going to be submitted to Cam govt in May.

Waiting game... oh, and I too will be loading up at 10c!!


----------



## LRG (19 May 2010)

Pythagerous said:


> Trolling through prior releases are documents, SDL's timeline appears to be as follows:
> 
> *March/April* - Deutche Bank to reccomend preferred strategic partners
> *April/June* - Drilling results and feasibility study completed
> ...




Here is the timeline summarized previously announced by SDL 

We have passed March / April - I have not heard DB  recommmend strategic partners - have you Muffin MAN!


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## lioness (19 May 2010)

In their last open briefing, they stated DB would recommend partner list by March/April and gave themselves a deadline to choose before end of June. This is black and white and I will find that link.

This is a foregone certainty to touch 10 cents now.

There is only so much the spin doctor Don Lewis can put out in their updated slides for the last 4 years. Time to deliver has already come and gone, merely just paying for their fat salaries now to the ultimate demise.


----------



## The Muffin Man (19 May 2010)

LRG said:


> Here is the timeline summarized previously announced by SDL
> 
> We have passed March / April - I have not heard DB  recommmend strategic partners - have you Muffin MAN!





Riiiiight, and when does it say strategic partners will be announced? Read the post again mate. DB was to go back to SDL with the shortlist, the was no mention of us being told anything in May. So you can keep whinging, or wait until when the company actually said news would be announced.


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## The Muffin Man (19 May 2010)

lioness said:


> In their last open briefing, they stated DB would recommend partner list by March/April and gave themselves a deadline to choose before end of June. This is black and white and I will find that link.
> 
> This is a foregone certainty to touch 10 cents now.
> 
> There is only so much the spin doctor Don Lewis can put out in their updated slides for the last 4 years. Time to deliver has already come and gone, merely just paying for their fat salaries now to the ultimate demise.




SDL is moving with the general market, and has done so since October last year. Take a look at the graphs of SDL compared to the ASX, they move in unison. When the ASX swings upwards, so will SDL. Would you just look at the panic that a little shake sets off in some of you! Maybe a speculative stock isn't really your cup of tea?


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## lioness (19 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> SDL is moving with the general market, and has done so since October last year. Take a look at the graphs of SDL compared to the ASX, they move in unison. When the ASX swings upwards, so will SDL. Would you just look at the panic that a little shake sets off in some of you! Maybe a speculative stock isn't really your cup of tea?




The fact that it can never break 17 cents even when the all ords was 4950 is not a good sign. It moves in unison to a certain point and halts. That is because the spin must turn into something real at some point. Looks like the sun is gone and the dark clouds are gathering.


----------



## LRG (19 May 2010)

Muffin, i can read.

Sundance release / carry out an instor presentation every month just a bout - see March April etc.

If DB had recommended strategic partners in April/ May to the board / management of SDL you can bet your bottom dollar they would have put out a media release CONFIRMING that DB had provided a list / recommendation of strategic partners and they were on taget to announce the actual strategic partner/s in June / July.

Especially given the plunging SP. 

But they haven't cause there likely is still no strategic partner/s to announce in June / July.

IMO they are starting to get worried that the whole thing is just not getting the traction they expected - or they would have updated all those who hold the collective 2,800 Million shares!

I am not selling you arragont person - but i fear I am doing my money on this one - I was very confident up to recently. I am not confident cause they have gone completely silent whilst the SP has tanked from 16.6 to 13.0 and it is heading to 10.0 or lower by the look if they don't announce something positive in the next few days.


----------



## bleach8 (19 May 2010)

LRG said:


> Muffin, i can read.
> 
> Sundance release / carry out an instor presentation every month just a bout - see March April etc.
> 
> ...




something +VE : india will introduce new windfall tax on their miners

Brazil has similar tax on their plan to be introduced
FMG put their project on hold

so.Iron ore price will rise and SDL will benefit

Again..i am concerned on the share price as well, and i agree that management should at least do something to claim investors.


----------



## lioness (19 May 2010)

LRG said:


> Muffin, i can read.
> 
> Sundance release / carry out an instor presentation every month just a bout - see March April etc.
> 
> ...




They have gone silent LRG because they won't release anything major until the market is rising not falling otherwise news is wasted. As for partners, they have nothing and probably won't until after JORC of nabeba.


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## The Muffin Man (19 May 2010)

lioness said:


> They have gone silent LRG because they won't release anything major until the market is rising not falling otherwise news is wasted. As for partners, they have nothing and probably won't until after JORC of nabeba.




So you say that apparently "the dark clouds are gathering" but then you quite calmly offer a very reasonable explanation as to why a strategic partner is yet to sign on to the project.

Why would a partner sign onto the project when SDL is yet to JORC define the DSO used in the CAPEX payback period models and pricing models?

When the ASX heads south, SDL heads south with it, as has been the case for months now. When the share starts going south, all of the holders that are quick to panic start jumping up and down telling us the sky is falling in, while others take the time to accumulate. This has occured for months now. To the long term holder, whether the share hits 12c today is absolutely irrelevant.


----------



## Zodiac (20 May 2010)

There will be no announcements on partners for the foreseeable future. No one will be interested until the following occurs:

1) Cameroon Govt can gtee suppy of power ( they cannot as Rio has just scaled back its expanion plans for its Alcan plant for this reason ).

2) Cameroon Govt agree to tax terms. 

We all know there is heaps of Iron Ore and the world needs it. But without the above it will sit there. Alos note the political uncertaincies of the region with elections eary next year. Its a game of chess.

Zodiac


----------



## lioness (20 May 2010)

Zodiac said:


> There will be no announcements on partners for the foreseeable future. No one will be interested until the following occurs:
> 
> 1) Cameroon Govt can gtee suppy of power ( they cannot as Rio has just scaled back its expanion plans for its Alcan plant for this reason ).
> 
> ...




Yes Zodiac, all those shares recently bought by Capital Partners of 145 mill and UBS and DB at 270 million combined are a waste of money as this project will not happen. What a joke. Of course it will happen and is happening as we speak. SDL are providing a future for their employment poverty problems. The govt is willing to put up to 25% of the cost of the project in. What does that tell you?????


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## The Muffin Man (20 May 2010)

lioness, does more than one person have access to your account? 

"There is only so much the spin doctor Don Lewis can put out in their updated slides for the last 4 years. *Time to deliver has already come and gone, merely just paying for their fat salaries now to the ultimate demise.*"

"The fact that it can never break 17 cents even when the all ords was 4950 is not a good sign. It moves in unison to a certain point and halts. That is because the spin must turn into something real at some point. *Looks like the sun is gone and the dark clouds are gathering.*"

"They have gone silent LRG because they won't release anything major until the market is rising not falling otherwise news is wasted. *As for partners, they have nothing and probably won't until after JORC of nabeba.*"

"Y*es Zodiac, all those shares recently bought by Capital Partners of 145 mill and UBS and DB at 270 million combined are a waste of money as this project will not happen. What a joke. Of course it will happen and is happening as we speak.* SDL are providing a future for their employment poverty problems. The govt is willing to put up to 25% of the cost of the project in. What does that tell you?????"

That was all within a day or so. So again, does more than one person use your account because you are going up and down like a yoyo.


----------



## lioness (20 May 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> lioness, does more than one person have access to your account?
> 
> "There is only so much the spin doctor Don Lewis can put out in their updated slides for the last 4 years. *Time to deliver has already come and gone, merely just paying for their fat salaries now to the ultimate demise.*"
> 
> ...




HAHA no, I only have access but change as per the share price. Dr Jeckill and Mr Hyde

I will get my act together soon


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## Zodiac (26 May 2010)

You are misquoting me, I never said it won't happen, what I said is there won't  be any announcements until both of these issues are sorted as they are fundamental to the project. There is no positive news on this front and are completely outside of the control of SDL.

Zodiac


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## lioness (27 May 2010)

I expect a revisit to the top of its trading range at 17 within the next few months but will never break that unless a significant announcement is delivered.

So, nothing to report here, come back in 6 months. See you then.


----------



## CarbonSteel (27 May 2010)

Where do you get your info from ma'am?

So....which one is it lioness? I have been following your posts but now I am confused. 



lioness said:


> By: lioness (May 27) I expect a revisit to the top of its trading range at 17 within the next few months but will never break that unless a significant announcement is delivered.
> So, nothing to report here, come back in 6 months. See you then.




 Re: SDL - Sundance Resources 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




> By: lioness (May 6, 14:10)
> 
> Muffin man, if SDL cannot secure a partner by 2010 end, I will be selling for sure. They have had over 1.5 years and with DB and UBS in now as substant. holders, I reckon that was the tick to say things are actually happening behind the scenes and not just bulldust from the CEO.
> 
> ...


----------



## Unhinged (28 May 2010)

Think Lioness like many of us hopes for the best but is aware that investing in any exploration company has risk. We dont all vocalise our fears


----------



## Miner (28 May 2010)

Unhinged said:


> Think Lioness like many of us hopes for the best but is aware that investing in any exploration company has risk. We dont all vocalise our fears




I reckon when President Obama can not fix the issues in world market, Kevin Rude is imposing high tax, Tony tabloid just does not what he talks about then let us take the shelter of double malt scotch with rock - they never give you stress and why worry for SDL or any of those shares with lack of leading edge. :jump:


----------



## Richomania (1 June 2010)

Noticed some interesting trades. Someone keeps buying parcels of 2 shares or so at 13.5, Seems like they are trying to keep the price around 13. Does this sort of thing happen often? I'm quite new to this and haven't seen it before.


----------



## Johnny Utah (1 June 2010)

Richomania said:


> Noticed some interesting trades. Someone keeps buying parcels of 2 shares or so at 13.5, Seems like they are trying to keep the price around 13. Does this sort of thing happen often? I'm quite new to this and haven't seen it before.






Richomania- Its probably an algo(bots) trading from the instos in the market which keep crossing the spread


----------



## Richomania (1 June 2010)

Johnny Utah said:


> Richomania- Its probably an algo(bots) trading from the instos in the market which keep crossing the spread




Thanks for the explanation special agent Utah. unfortunately I'm none the wiser as I don't know what instos is. Bot I get, an automated process but why such small parcels with such regularity if not to manipulate the SP?


----------



## jonojpsg (1 June 2010)

Richomania said:


> Thanks for the explanation special agent Utah. unfortunately I'm none the wiser as I don't know what instos is. Bot I get, an automated process but why such small parcels with such regularity if not to manipulate the SP?




instos - institutions.  Not sure what crossing the spread means tho?  Probably something to do with manipulating the market


----------



## 5haretrader (1 June 2010)

Algo trading can be a very frustrating part of holding stocks long term. The bots can mess with your mind if you lose sight of the long term picture. Will see 12.5cents tomorrow imo.


----------



## lioness (1 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Algo trading can be a very frustrating part of holding stocks long term. The bots can mess with your mind if you lose sight of the long term picture. Will see 12.5cents tomorrow imo.




Looks like we may revisit 12 cents IMO, given the overall markets are set to decline again. WHo cares though if you are holding for the next 6 months, it will eventually take off when milestones are reached. Just been killing people sitting here for 2 years with not one cent gain.


----------



## Johnny Utah (2 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Looks like we may revisit 12 cents IMO, given the overall markets are set to decline again. WHo cares though if you are holding for the next 6 months, it will eventually take off when milestones are reached. Just been killing people sitting here for 2 years with not one cent gain.




There is news out this morning on a investor presentation and a "Maiden 200 million tonnes resource for Nabeba deposit"

At the moment matching at 13.5c with a bit of volume. I agree who cares about these little fluctuations when your holding out for the long term.


----------



## 5haretrader (2 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Looks like we may revisit 12 cents IMO





or not..... 

I'm sure we're both happy to be proven wrong. Great news for holders today. This bait should be even more luring for a partner now


----------



## lioness (2 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> or not.....
> 
> I'm sure we're both happy to be proven wrong. Great news for holders today. This bait should be even more luring for a partner now




Sharetrader you are spot on here.

Take note of Don Lewis last line in the announcement:

 "the time is right for strategic partners to join this world class project?.

He is basically stating we are close to naming a partner.


----------



## LRG (2 June 2010)

Hello,

On page 3 of today's investor presentation there is a grapgh comparing "enterprise value" with other miners.

It shows SDL with an EV of $0.22 cf Fortescue & Kumba at around $8.00 EV.

Can someone explain the significance of this and this graph?

Also cashflow gragh shows about 5 years until psitive cashflows - is this when the SP will hit its peak?  Mine life 25+ years.  There have been various calc's on this forum estimating the SP from $4.55 to $10 +.  Can anyone update the SP forecast based on the new data provided by SDL?

Still saying getting partners is a strategic target / milestone to close out in 2010 - rather than June as previous.  Any one game to guess the SP once partners are announced.

At least we have some news


----------



## bleach8 (2 June 2010)

LRG said:


> Hello,
> 
> On page 3 of today's investor presentation there is a grapgh comparing "enterprise value" with other miners.
> 
> ...





it depends on the terms of the finance deal ....ratio of equity and debt etc ...without these terms ...calculations are useless .....but it should be valued more than before


----------



## lioness (2 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> it depends on the terms of the finance deal ....ratio of equity and debt etc ...without these terms ...calculations are useless .....but it should be valued more than before




Bleach, spot on here. I would be guessing at 50 cents once partner is announced and 80 cents plus once debt/finance/offtake agreements announced.

Once production takes off, this should be worth $5 plus. Very similar to FMG but SDL is better because they will own the infrastructure and everyone else in the area including Vale/Rio etc will have to pay rent to use the railway and port constructions. I feel we are close to a partner being names as the first step.


----------



## Richomania (2 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Sharetrader you are spot on here.
> 
> Take note of Don Lewis last line in the announcement:
> 
> ...




He is using encouraging language, but that doesn't necessarily mean a deal is close. He thinks its time but do the people with 3 and a half billion think so, I hope so.


----------



## jonojpsg (2 June 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Hang on a sec lioness, the article you posted a link to below gave a pretty good sequence of events from when SDL *first bought in* 4 years ago, through the initial resource drilling (07/08), then the GFC which threw a massive spanner in the works, and then the revised way forward which had to include more drilling to get the 350Mt high grade in order to get a partner on board.
> 
> IMO they are running extremely well to plan given events over the past two years - *as I've estimated, the JORC inferred for Nabeba should be out within the next 2-4 weeks*, then a partner locked in shortly after.
> 
> ...





Got my first estimate right, now let's hope that the second comes through as well - I'm jumping in starting now and putting everything I can on it over the next 2-3 weeks as when the announcement comes this will run AT LEAST 100% very quickly IMO and then add another 100% within months after that.

I mean really, valuing SDL at 22c per tonne of resource will be viewed as ridiculous IF they sign up a partner(s) and finance, as they will be making a clear $30-40/tonne even at rock bottom IO prices!  I would say a valuation of $1-2 per tonne is realistic once they sign a partner and finance.  This would give them a $4-5bn EV or $1.5 a share.  That may be a bit optimistic but a measure of how undervalued they are atm.


----------



## bleach8 (2 June 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Got my first estimate right, now let's hope that the second comes through as well - I'm jumping in starting now and putting everything I can on it over the next 2-3 weeks as when the announcement comes this will run AT LEAST 100% very quickly IMO and then add another 100% within months after that.
> 
> I mean really, valuing SDL at 22c per tonne of resource will be viewed as ridiculous IF they sign up a partner(s) and finance, as they will be making a clear $30-40/tonne even at rock bottom IO prices!  I would say a valuation of $1-2 per tonne is realistic once they sign a partner and finance.  This would give them a $4-5bn EV or $1.5 a share.  That may be a bit optimistic but a measure of how undervalued they are atm.




dont know why so many people decided to sell at 13.5 (high volumes) today....i didnt expect that it would go up to 20c after today's new...but at least i would love to see the sp go to 15c with the news today


----------



## 5haretrader (2 June 2010)

Bleach, on the HC forum, someone was following closely and commented that many of the shares bought at 13.5 were put into 14cents straight away. Even on good news our algo trading _friends_ wouldn't let us have a run of it. Ah well, bigger and better things to come in the not too distant future one hopes


----------



## LRG (10 June 2010)

dropped a full cent today 37 million traded down from 13 to 12 cents.

are people getting tired of the wait you think?

bottom draw stuff now maybe for a little while hey?


----------



## jonojpsg (10 June 2010)

LRG said:


> dropped a full cent today 37 million traded down from 13 to 12 cents.
> 
> are people getting tired of the wait you think?
> 
> bottom draw stuff now maybe for a little while hey?




Yeah, I saw the big volume and wondered...usually most of the big volume days see the price go up?  Seems like an opportune time to buy right now rather than bottom drawer, an announcement re partners/finance would have to be on the cards for the next month or so given that they now have more than enough DSO to cover the payback period++

I'm thinking I will be shifting my funds to pick some more up at this price


----------



## lioness (13 June 2010)

Looks like that big volume sell down was for the buyers to pick up cheapies.

BUT if it doesnt move up soon, it will probably break down and head to 8 cents as the basing pattern has been going on for 1 year now. I guess without news of a partner it is guaranteed to break down as many people are losing money now at 13 cents. So it won't hold up for long without moving up. People are sick of waiting but an announcement can change everything in a second. We need a partner update of some description to keep punters interested.


----------



## Miner (14 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Looks like that big volume sell down was for the buyers to pick up cheapies.
> 
> BUT if it doesnt move up soon, it will probably break down and head to 8 cents as the basing pattern has been going on for 1 year now. I guess without news of a partner it is guaranteed to break down as many people are losing money now at 13 cents. So it won't hold up for long without moving up. People are sick of waiting but an announcement can change everything in a second. We need a partner update of some description to keep punters interested.




Interesting posting Lioness as always 

How did you derive the 8 cents figure to be reached in 12 months.

I have noticed you have made interesting submissions on SDL  in  some of your  previous postings . 

I am just curious to know the theory behind it so that I can make a purchase order in 12 months time and start selling other stocks for SDL


----------



## lioness (14 June 2010)

Miner said:


> Interesting posting Lioness as always
> 
> How did you derive the 8 cents figure to be reached in 12 months.
> 
> ...




Miner,

I wouldn't buy SDL at 8 cents now after this following news as it shows no-one wants SDL. You are better off waiting for them to announce a deal and pay 50 cents. At least you have certainty then. Even BHP went next door and spent 3.5 billion in West Africa(Next door to SDL's project) and snubbed SDL. No-one wants them:

BHP pushes into Liberia

BHP Billiton Ltd has entered an investment deal, rumoured to be in the range of $3.5 billion, to develop iron ore prospects in Liberia, according to media reports.

The miner has reportedly signed a mineral development agreement with Liberia, setting out taxes, duties and other trade terms for the development of four iron ore deposits, The Australian newspaper said.

BHP's push into Liberia comes as debate around the federal government's proposed 40 per cent resources super profits tax (RSPT) continues to fuel uncertainty about its impact on local projects and investment activity .

African iron ore hub

BHP's chief executive of ferrous and coal, Marcus Randolph said that the combination of a push into Liberia with the nearby Nimba deposit in Guinea could form the basis for a strategic hub of iron ore development around integrated rail and port infrastructure.

He compared the set up to the way Australian iron ore operations began in the Pilbara.

Mr Randolph said that Liberia was receptive to developments.

"With the completion of our mineral development agreement, we intend to expedite development of these resources," Mr Randolph told The Age.

Last week, BHP Billiton's chairman Jac Nasser sent a letter to shareholders, updating them on the RSPT, in which he said that the tax should be substantively redesigned or otherwise abandoned.

He responded to reports that the government is considering changing some elements of the RSPT including the threshold at which the tax applies to bring it in line with the petroleum tax.

Mr Nasser stressed that applying the petroleum resource rent tax to minerals would not address the fundamental failings of the government's proposed resource super profits tax.


----------



## 5haretrader (14 June 2010)

Well.....

So lioness why do you have the belief that if one company doesn't want us then we are doomed 

BHP have probably done a feasibility report on many options in the African region and quite possible SDL was on their shortlist. Just because we didn't get through this time doesn't mean we never will. Keep the faith.


----------



## lioness (14 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Well.....
> 
> So lioness why do you have the belief that if one company doesn't want us then we are doomed
> 
> BHP have probably done a feasibility report on many options in the African region and quite possible SDL was on their shortlist. Just because we didn't get through this time doesn't mean we never will. Keep the faith.




Just frustrated that it has taken so long to get going. I still have faith but only a little left now. They need to get going with this project as they have not even built the transport yet and that will take one year as well.


----------



## LRG (14 June 2010)

Hate to say it but I'm with lioness.  SDL management have promised the world: gunna do this gunna do that by such and such a time - then that time passes by and nothing is mentioned of the promise.  They just "spin" and say its happening in 2010 (previous it was april/may/june 2010).
when 21010 goes it will be 2nd qtr 2011?

The best analogy for SDL broken promises is our mate K Rudd. similar time line last 3 years promising this and that and delivering ZERO - causing unrest, uncertaintly and fear with believers.

PS i didn't vote labor - this is just an analogy for SDL.

This project is not going to get off the ground for a while yet if ever.

I am bottom drawing my SDL holdings - no longer going to average down my price by wasting money buying more and more. I have substantial SDL holdings - go t to start thinking it may not fly and look for other opportunites as free funds come available.

Hey, if SDL does one day get up it will be like winning the lotto for me (and probably lioness).  But i am sick of the SDL spin.  SDL is just a slim chance now in my mind.

There is no announcement to date - it may come tmw, next month, Dec 2010, july 2011, 2015??? who knows - only when/if it happens - I suspect the board really don't have any solid potentials.

any way SDL - bottom draw - not selling but have almost had enough of the spin and broken timelines.


----------



## lioness (15 June 2010)

LRG said:


> Hate to say it but I'm with lioness.  SDL management have promised the world: gunna do this gunna do that by such and such a time - then that time passes by and nothing is mentioned of the promise.  They just "spin" and say its happening in 2010 (previous it was april/may/june 2010).
> when 21010 goes it will be 2nd qtr 2011?
> 
> The best analogy for SDL broken promises is our mate K Rudd. similar time line last 3 years promising this and that and delivering ZERO - causing unrest, uncertaintly and fear with believers.
> ...




Yes, looks like this is just a pipe dream now with not much chance of getting off the ground. Partners may happen with the next 2 years but otherwise, she will continue to base for a very long time. I suspect leaving money here will be the same in 2 years. Don Lewis CEO is a good salesman but no company maker, just a salesman with a good story to sell.


----------



## 5haretrader (15 June 2010)

FMG sat in idle for 17 years. Those who persevere are those who are rewarded. Anything can change overnight. Think of it this way, things will move extremely quickly once there is a sniff of a partner deal. You could miss out on this by just a few weeks if you were to sell off through impatience.


----------



## LRG (15 June 2010)

thats right. as i said not going to sell off - just hold in the proverbial bottom draw. no way will i buy any more.

1 day maybe it will go but can't see it happening in the near future.

the only saving grace is i am crap at predicting the future when it comes to share trading, forex trading, futures trading, options etc - so don't listen to my gut feeling.  best hing to do is the opposite of what i do and i gauranee you will make a fortune!!


----------



## lioness (16 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> FMG sat in idle for 17 years. Those who persevere are those who are rewarded. Anything can change overnight. Think of it this way, things will move extremely quickly once there is a sniff of a partner deal. You could miss out on this by just a few weeks if you were to sell off through impatience.




This is true as it as happened to me with a few other stocks that I sold out and then they went up 10 times on me. That has cost me millions literally, so I will wait for SDL patiently as I know it will make me millions in the next 1-2 years. I must learn more patience.


----------



## R Soul (17 June 2010)

The joys of trading specs.  

Can anyone give me a link to where the BHP proposed Liberian tenamant is WRT SDL's patch of red rock?

Any infrastucture development in that area would increase SDL's prospects due to the 'gold-rush' effect from other miners.

Having said that, a prospective development partner would bring their own capital with them, so to speak.  So the value of the rights to mine (basically SDL's prime asset) in this scenariao would be????


----------



## LRG (17 June 2010)

hello new member R Soul just joined with 2 posts - great name!!!

were you someone else who got banned?

just curious - why the sudden interest in SDL


----------



## lioness (20 June 2010)

Looks like share price will half now?

"Missing jet: Sundance Resources mining project in west Africa.

A private jet carrying at least 9 people, mostly Australian mining executives, has gone missing in west Africa, Australian media said.

The mining exectutives were from resouce company Sundance Resources. The Perth based mining company operates an Iron Ore mine in Cameroon, near the border with Gabon.

Families of those on board were told that the plane was due to land in Cameroon around 1am local time, however the private jet never landed at its destination and a search and rescue operation was now under way.

Australias Nine Network said those on board the plane incolude mining investor Ken Talbot, who is worth around A$1billion, Sundance Resources managing director and CEO Don Lewis, independent director Craig Oliver and non executive directors John Jones and Geoff Wedlock."


----------



## sjx (20 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Looks like share price will half now?
> 
> "Missing jet: Sundance Resources mining project in west Africa.
> 
> ...




really tragic, tragic news. hopefully they are ok. 

how about you worry about the families involved and SDL board themselves before worrying about the shareprice?


----------



## 5haretrader (20 June 2010)

We can't control what others think. For some poor souls out there they worry more about their investment than the health of others. But this is truly tragic news, I hope for the best for both the directors and their families.


----------



## LRG (20 June 2010)

terrible news for the families of those missing - lets hope for the families a miracle.

no one deserves this to happen to them.

really sad news.


----------



## Miner (20 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Looks like share price will half now?
> 
> "Missing jet: Sundance Resources mining project in west Africa.
> 
> ...




Hi Lioness

As a human being, Australian and a shareholder of SDL my prayers for the well being of  all people who are reportedly missing in the private jet plane.

It is devastating news for the family as well as the Nation .

I also feel disgusted for  those heartless  people who have shown no sympathy for this shocking news and the ramification for the families and country as a whole but showed concern for the share price drop. 

Can money ever equate with family tragedies or any human losses ?

I am sure we would get priorities right keeping humanity and people well being first.


----------



## Julia (20 June 2010)

Miner said:


> Hi Lioness
> 
> As a human being, Australian and a shareholder of SDL my prayers for the well being of  all people who are reportedly missing in the private jet plane.
> 
> ...



I couldn't agree more, Miner.  I'm finding it a bit hard to believe your main focus is on the share price, Lioness.


----------



## nunthewiser (20 June 2010)

Julia said:


> I couldn't agree more, Miner.  I'm finding it a bit hard to believe your main focus is on the share price, Lioness.





Why wouldnt it be ?

Not like lioness knows these people personally.

Thousands if not millions of people die each week and yes i agree its sad for the loved ones etc etc but at the end of the day the only actual connection many of us here have with this tragedy is the actual holding of the stock which may or may not be affected by this news.

If i was a holder i would be concerned about my investment also .

Not being heartless just being realistic.


----------



## Julia (20 June 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Why wouldnt it be ?
> 
> Not like lioness knows these people personally.



Doesn't matter if you know them personally or not.
Loss of human life to most people is more important than some temporary dip in the damn share price.


----------



## pixel (20 June 2010)

Julia said:


> Doesn't matter if you know them personally or not.
> Loss of human life to most people is more important than some temporary dip in the damn share price.



Couldn't agree more, Julia;
Worrying about the price of one's shares means something is missing in one's trading or investment strategy. Those, for whom shares become more important than other humans' wellbeing, not only lack an essential consideration for share investment: *"Never buy shares with money yu can't afford to lose!"*; but they arguably lack also what most people would consider essential human decency.


----------



## Miner (21 June 2010)

Julia said:


> Doesn't matter if you know them personally or not.
> Loss of human life to most people is more important than some temporary dip in the damn share price.






nunthewiser said:


> Why wouldnt it be ?
> 
> Not like lioness knows these people personally.
> 
> ...




Dear Julia

thanks a lot for sharing your concern and rising above for the right cause.

I am just feeling pity for two of ASF colleagues  who failed to take the opportunity to show their humanity  against greatest distress for some of their own country men.

Rightly the share will be under halt to avoid some hawks to take advantage of the most vulnerable stage of SDL .

There are always supporters for Hitlers and Nazi concentration camp. There will always be people who justify actions of Shylock to take the pound of flesh in exchange of money . 

So I am just speechless at the comments from Nunthewiser (wiser ?) and Lioness (Lion is supposedly a brave animal). It also explains how come people loot houses of their fellow people when their houses are under fire. 

There are always aberrations in human man kind. Forgiveness is the greatest strength. 

So let us forget and forgive those people like Jesus forgave the people who crucified Him.


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## nunthewiser (21 June 2010)

GEEZUS!

i already said it was a tragedy.

i already said how sad it was for the loved ones.

FFS now im compared to hitler because im shedding a realistic viewpoint on a business scenario?

Oh just read more . oh now im a house looter also ? 

un farkin believable.

GROW UP.


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## nunthewiser (21 June 2010)

Miner said:


> So I am just speechless at the comments from Nunthewiser (wiser ?) and Lioness (Lion is supposedly a brave animal). It also explains how come people loot houses of their fellow people when their houses are under fire.
> 
> There are always aberrations in human man kind. Forgiveness is the greatest strength.
> 
> So let us forget and forgive those people like Jesus forgave the people who crucified Him.




Forgiveness ?? forgiveness for what? i have done nothing wrong ... am i a monster for not gushing my sadness in a public forum for people i dont know ? . should i repent my sins because their deaths ( as sad as they are ) have no effect directly to me or my family and therefore i have no feelings of direct sadness on the matter? ...... 

Religeon belongs in another thread and being not the religeous type ya can jam the forgiveness up ya clacker .


----------



## CarbonSteel (21 June 2010)

Firstly, I wish to reassure the famlies, if they read this, that there are a lot of people who have only admiration for the tireless work of those missing. They are developing a major resource in a very difficult and dangerous area of the world.

From News.com.au...



> The Sundance board had travelled to Cameroon to conclude negotiations over the mining lease at its Mbalam deposits




These people (who are currently missing) are making progress, albeit not at the rate that some investors expect. If our worst fears are realised, it will be a great loss to all associated with SDL in any way.

Sensibly, there will be a trading halt until the outcome of the search is known and presumably the company has had time to regroup. 

I think it is a very positive sign that these people have travelled to Cameroon to conclude the mining lease negotiations. Obviously they have faith in the project and it is going forward.

I sincerely hope that we can avoid preaching morals and attacking each other in this forum and concentrate on real issues.

Thanks for reading. I live in hope for those missing. :aus:


----------



## Agentm (21 June 2010)

this is bizarre

its absolute!! and i mean absolutely absolute that the potential loss of the executives in sundance will have a profound impact on the share

regardless of how tragic the news appears to be, it has to be able to be commented upon imho


----------



## Ruby (21 June 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Religeon belongs in another thread and being not the religeous type ya can jam the forgiveness up ya clacker .




I love a non-religious nun!

I don't own Sundance Resources shares, and I am shocked by this terrible news.  However, I think it is quite possible - and normal - for shareholders to be *both *shocked by the news *AND *worried about their stock.  Some people seem to be making unnecessarily large leaps to wrong conclusions.


----------



## The Muffin Man (21 June 2010)

I'm a bit speechless about all of this. 

I think that now the stock has been placed in a trading halt, everyone can focus their thoughts and prayers towards those involved and their families.

Any thoughts about share price and the future of SDL can now be held off until some point in the future. 

A number of those on board have always made themselves available to shareholders through phone calls, emails, and even face to face meetings. It's natural that SDL holders especially would feel some connection to them. It's not about just holding a share in the company these people manage.


----------



## Johnny Utah (21 June 2010)

Just shattering stuff really. As soon as i read the headline yesterday that there were missing business executives on a flight in West Africa. I thought of SDL right away. Its just sad news all around for everyone that's associated with the company and there families. I really do hope they are ok and surviving out there- i know its slim but gotta have hope guys. Fingers crossed its not a bad outcome.


----------



## Johnny Utah (21 June 2010)

*Sundance CFO appointed acting CEO*

   PERTH, June 21 AAP - Sundance Resources Ltd chief financial 
officer Peter Canterbury has been appointed acting chief executive 
of the iron ore explorer as the search continues for company board 
members and senior management in West Africa.
   Much of the company's board and senior management - including 
non-executive chairman Geoff Wedlock, managing director and chief 
executive officer Don Lewis, company secretary John Carr-Gregg, 
non-executive directors Ken Talbot, John Jones and Craig Oliver - 
are missing somewhere between the Cameroon capital Yaounde to 
Yangadou in the Republic of Congo.
   The Perth-based executives were aboard a chartered aircraft that 
also was carrying two French nationals, an American and two Britons 
that disappeared over dense jungle on Saturday during a flight to a 
Sundance project.
   A Sundance spokesman told AAP on Monday that Mr Canterbury had 
taken on the role of acting chief executive.
   All of the companies chaired by Mr Wedlock, a respected 
Perth-based mining identity, were placed in a trading halt on 
Monday morning while the search continued.
   The search has been called off for the night, but will resume at 
first light (about 4pm AEST on Monday).
   Other than Sundance, the companies placed in a trading halt were 
Gindalbie Metals Ltd, Jupiter Mines Ltd and Gladiator Resources 
Ltd.
   Gindalbie shares resumed trading at about 1130 AEST and were up 
2.5 cents, or 2.16 per cent, at $1.185 at 1201 AEST.
   Mr Wedlock formerly was chief executive of BHP Iron Ore, and 
managing director of Portman Ltd and Grange Resources Ltd.
   Mr Talbot, a Queensland-based billionaire, was until June 2008 
the principal shareholder and chief executive of Macarthur Coal 
Ltd.
   AAP rlm/pe


----------



## skc (21 June 2010)

Miner said:


> There are always supporters for Hitlers and Nazi concentration camp. There will always be people who justify actions of Shylock to take the pound of flesh in exchange of money .
> 
> So I am just speechless at the comments from Nunthewiser (wiser ?) and Lioness (Lion is supposedly a brave animal). It also explains how come people loot houses of their fellow people when their houses are under fire.




That's a very nice long bow you are drawing there... almost as long as this one.



> Tuckey links Sundance 'tragedy' with tax
> 
> CANBERRA, June 21 AAP - Outspoken federal Liberal MP Wilson
> Tuckey has linked the government's proposed super profits tax with
> ...




I seem to remember there are other Australian mining companies in Africa before the RSPT...


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (21 June 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Forgiveness ?? forgiveness for what? i have done nothing wrong ... am i a monster for not gushing my sadness in a public forum for people i dont know ? . should i repent my sins because their deaths ( as sad as they are ) have no effect directly to me or my family and therefore i have no feelings of direct sadness on the matter? ......
> 
> Religeon belongs in another thread and being not the religeous type ya can jam the forgiveness up ya clacker .




Nun, I'm with you on this.

Some people have a LOT riding on certain stocks and may have their eggs in one basket (rightly or wrongly). SDL for many is not about loyalty or any such sentiment in this tragedy (yes it is a terrible tragedy), but it is about securing the financial future for those  investors and their own families.

If I were a holder with a meaningful stake where the outcome of this company going into administration is for me to lose my home, I would most definitely be putting myself first by wanting to know what the future bodes for the company. 

Anybody who is trying to take the moral high ground needs a proverbial dressing down, and I hope for their sake that they are never in the position where their whole financial future is reliant on the outcome of this mystery


----------



## lioness (21 June 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Nun, I'm with you on this.
> 
> Some people have a LOT riding on certain stocks and may have their eggs in one basket (rightly or wrongly). SDL for many is not about loyalty or any such sentiment in this tragedy (yes it is a terrible tragedy), but it is about securing the financial future for those  investors and their own families.
> 
> ...




Firstly, let me say that all my eggs were in SDL. Don't bother telling me it is wrong, too late now. Yes, I may lose my home also. Blaming nunthewiser is disgusting. We are shareholders and I have every right to be concerned about the share price. I am a long term holder and will still hold even after the initial collapse when it trades again. Blaming people because hey dont say oh my god and beg for mercy is childish.  Of course we are saddened, but life goes on. If I died tomorrow, life would go on even though people may say "poor thing". We are built to move on even though we find it hard.

Why can't I worry about the shareprice. Isn't that my job as a shareholder?

Well done nunethewiser and ubiquitous for standing up for shareholders. This doesnt mean these guys are not saddened just like me to lose great people.

Move along if you cannot handle our comments.


----------



## bleach8 (21 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Firstly, let me say that all my eggs were in SDL. Don't bother telling me it is wrong, too late now. Yes, I may lose my home also. Blaming nunthewiser is disgusting. We are shareholders and I have every right to be concerned about the share price. I am a long term holder and will still hold even after the initial collapse when it trades again. Blaming people because hey dont say oh my god and beg for mercy is childish.  Of course we are saddened, but life goes on. If I died tomorrow, life would go on even though people may say "poor thing". We are built to move on even though we find it hard.
> 
> Why can't I worry about the shareprice. Isn't that my job as a shareholder?
> 
> ...




agree with u! but we can't really discuss anything until the situation become clear...we can just guessing ...right?


----------



## Dunger (21 June 2010)

There's a time and a place for everything.

This being a forum to discuss shares and their fluctuating prices for reasons known and unknown I don't feel it necessary for anyone to express their feelings about people they don't know to people they don't know.

If you have had any contact with the missing people then of course you'll feel concerned and saddened by it all. 

In saying that they can and will express their feelings in their own time, in their own way. Just because it doesn't conform to a particular standard in this forum is a reason to sling insults and comparisons to various villains that really are evil.


----------



## R Soul (21 June 2010)

LRG said:


> hello new member R Soul just joined with 2 posts - great name!!!
> 
> were you someone else who got banned?
> 
> just curious - why the sudden interest in SDL




 I'm actually quite a civilised chap.

I know a guy who sunk heaps into this stock over the last few years (cost averaged somewhere between 7c and 70c).  He says he knows a lot of big names who also have a lot sunk in this one.  I threw $2k into it a few days ago as a punt.

This looks like one of those classic penny stock that (apparently) the value of the assets exceeds the market cap (according to the news, anyway).


----------



## akkopower (21 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Looks like share price will half now?




Looks like it could fall by quite a bit. Wonder by how much the companies profits will be affected. This one is on my radar now. 

Could pick up a few shares at a nice discount in the near future.


----------



## Julia (21 June 2010)

Miner said:


> Dear Julia
> 
> thanks a lot for sharing your concern and rising above for the right cause.
> 
> ...




Um, Miner, I've just caught up with this thread again.

Sorry, but I have to say that your post here is over the top and out of proportion when you start talking about Hitler on the one hand and Jesus on the other.  That's a world away from being respectfully shocked about such a significant apparent loss of human life.

Lioness, you obviously have a huge stake in this company so I hope for your sake (and the company's) any effect on the sp will be short lived.

I'm amazed that so many of the Board travelled on the one small plane.
If they are dead (and it's now becoming difficult to imagine anything else), there will be other people who can step up to managing the company, so probably the outlook won't be as bleak as you might be imagining.

I can't begin to imagine how the families of the missing must be feeling, and other company employees.


----------



## UMike (22 June 2010)

I'm sorry,  but it has been confirmed. No survivors 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/22/2933183.htm

Sincere condolences to all those affected.


----------



## Bushman (22 June 2010)

UMike said:


> I'm sorry,  but it has been confirmed. No survivors
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/22/2933183.htm
> 
> Sincere condolences to all those affected.




Terrible news and a sad loss for the exploration industry. RIP to the executives and my thoughts with their families.


----------



## TheAbyss (22 June 2010)

akkopower said:


> Looks like it could fall by quite a bit. Wonder by how much the companies profits will be affected. This one is on my radar now.
> 
> Could pick up a few shares at a nice discount in the near future.




What profits? SDL were still in exploration stage i thought.

The Talbot Group will struggle to cope as would any company who loses such a visionary. Talbot was a rare breed and will be missed at all levels from both a personal and business perspectives.

As far as the companies Talbot Group invested in, SDL will be hit the most and may never recover as whilst no individual is irreplaceable, some are very hard to replace.

The link below to their latest report has a page which lists all of their current holdings.

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/media/27354/quarterly activities report marc h 2010.pdf

Good luck to all concerned here.


----------



## R Soul (22 June 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> As far as the companies Talbot Group invested in, SDL will be hit the most and may never recover as whilst no individual is irreplaceable, some are very hard to replace.
> 
> .




A mining major could pick this one up and run with it.  BHP, for instance has the intellectual firepower and depth in its management structure to take this one on as a 'project'.


----------



## R Soul (22 June 2010)

Ex-BHPB man with experience in African operations:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ining-executives/story-e6frg9df-1225882690770

As well as the support team:


> chief financial officer Peter Canterbury was named acting chief executive. The company said yesterday it had appointed strategic advisers to help it over the crisis.




If Gilbertson is able to appoint some high-profile management then it would be an indication of the future prospects of this stock.  Top managers are attracted to more certain success like bees go to the honeypot.


----------



## Bolle (22 June 2010)

This is so very tragic.  My most sincere condolences to their families and friends.

I just read that the families may have to wait weeks to be able to bury their dead, due to red tape and search times and all that.  How very frustrating at such a sad time.


----------



## lioness (22 June 2010)

R Soul said:


> Ex-BHPB man with experience in African operations:
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ining-executives/story-e6frg9df-1225882690770
> 
> ...




Gilbertson is talking about Jupiter mines, not SDL. Come on read things before commenting please Rsoul.

I am happy with George Jones being there and hate to say  it, but after 1-2 months they will have appointed top class professionals and life goes on for SDL. Best thing they can do is finish the project for their legacy that their efforts have not been wasted in vain.


----------



## lioness (22 June 2010)

R Soul said:


> A mining major could pick this one up and run with it.  BHP, for instance has the intellectual firepower and depth in its management structure to take this one on as a 'project'.




Would these majors not buy as it may be seen to be in bad health to buy it when they are vulnerable?? Maybe/maybe not. An offer of 20 cents for the lot would do it.


----------



## bleach8 (22 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Would these majors not buy as it may be seen to be in bad health to buy it when they are vulnerable?? Maybe/maybe not. An offer of 20 cents for the lot would do it.




the shs wont approve the offer of 20c in my opinion.

George Jones will ask shs apprvol to rebuid the board, will SDL be traded before the new board is formed?


----------



## lioness (22 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> the shs wont approve the offer of 20c in my opinion.
> 
> George Jones will ask shs apprvol to rebuid the board, will SDL be traded before the new board is formed?




Not sure bleach, probably will as once they have George Jones on board, should be life goes on for SDL.

The Cameroon govt have already said, the project will continue, so probably an initial fall to 10 cents and then recover back to 13 or 14 within 1 month.

Life goes on Bleach. So will greed and fear.


----------



## trainspotter (22 June 2010)

Still shaking my head as to why so many of the board were on the one plane? Yes I understand that the two Chinese investors are very important people and they have to be impressed with having ALL the suits available to them. Any intel anybody? Afterall it was against company policy for the entire executive to travel on the same plane.


----------



## bleach8 (22 June 2010)

what 2 chinese investors?!?!? bla bla bla ....

i am still waiting on an announcement as whether they will lift the trading halt tomorrow... i guess no


----------



## newbie trader (22 June 2010)

trainspotter said:


> Still shaking my head as to why so many of the board were on the one plane? Yes I understand that the two Chinese investors are very important people and they have to be impressed with having ALL the suits available to them. Any intel anybody? Afterall it was against company policy for the entire executive to travel on the same plane.




They couldn't use their own jet apparently so they ditched the company policy and all boarded that plane. I think the UN had banned its personel from traveling on that specific carrier also. When you think about it whilst people are sometimes anxious about flying they never actually think that the plane will crash. Just unlucky in the end. A tragic loss.


----------



## lioness (22 June 2010)

trainspotter said:


> Still shaking my head as to why so many of the board were on the one plane? Yes I understand that the two Chinese investors are very important people and they have to be impressed with having ALL the suits available to them. Any intel anybody? Afterall it was against company policy for the entire executive to travel on the same plane.




Just shows you that all the smarts and the money in the world cannot save you from one dumb move.

Even the risk consultant to the company, Jeff Duff, was on the plane and his job is to let the board know the risks to the company and manage them. Isn't that ironic.

Of well, bright side it this will speed up any government red tape now as they will be sympathetic and wish to leave a legacy to those who died.


----------



## lioness (22 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> what 2 chinese investors?!?!? bla bla bla ....
> 
> i am still waiting on an announcement as whether they will lift the trading halt tomorrow... i guess no




Bleach is correct, there was no chinese investors involved. The project seems doomed to never get off the ground now.

I may sell once it recovers to 13 cents and move on.

This share is depressing me.


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## trainspotter (22 June 2010)

Not sure of the facts about the 2 Chinese Investors? Rumour mongering by the press again no doubt? Apparently the airstrip at the mine could not accomodate Ken Talbots plane so they decided to go in the one plane? Have they not learned from previous experiences _*ie*_ Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and the Big Bopper for one, Lynyrd Skynyrd for two, United States Figure Skating Team 1961 Sabena Flight 548 for three ....... I wont go on. Don't put all your eggs in the one basket?


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## bleach8 (22 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Bleach is correct, there was no chinese investors involved. The project seems doomed to never get off the ground now.
> 
> I may sell once it recovers to 13 cents and move on.
> 
> This share is depressing me.






lioness said:


> Of well, bright side it this will speed up any government red tape now as they will be sympathetic and wish to leave a legacy to those who died.




..u started the two personalities thing again!? 

i guess we need to be critical about the project ... i guess at the moment, SDL still has a group of very experienced managers ( i.e. re their last QR). and the new board will ensure everything is still on the track and keep updating SHs about it.

on the down side, the project will be delayed again..maybe another 2 moths ...the Cameroon will want this project to start for sure ... at least SDL still a take over target ...considering how much Rio and Vale pay for similar project in Africa , SDL should still worth a lot 2 Billion for 100% at least.

So, we just have to believe in the management and atm the new Chairman ...also need to believe in the potential of the project ..

Deepest heart felt Condolences to all relations of this tragedy.


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## lioness (22 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> ..u started the two personalities thing again!?
> 
> i guess we need to be critical about the project ... i guess at the moment, SDL still has a group of very experienced managers ( i.e. re their last QR). and the new board will ensure everything is still on the track and keep updating SHs about it.
> 
> ...




Yes, split personalities coming out again due to prozac.

Plane's shocking safety record Geoffrey Thomas Aviation Editor, The West Australian
June 22, 2010, 2:31 am

The airline carrying the missing board members from Sundance Resources was banned from flying to the European Union because of a shocking safety record in Congo and two crashes in the past five years.

And the missing plane, a twin-engine CASA 212-300, has one of the world's worst safety records, with 76 of about 600 built crashing. Registered TN-AFD, the charter plane was built in 1990 and was the 398th off the production line.

Charter company Aero Service, based in Congo's capital Brazzaville, has a fleet of eight ageing planes including Russian aircraft and some small Western-built piston powered designs.

The airline was founded by C.H. Griesbaum in 1962 as the aviation branch of a frozen food company and is now the biggest charter operator in Congo. Aero Service has commuter, charter and cargo operations in Congo and neighbouring countries.

Aero Services finance director L. Decouville refused to answer any questions from _The West Australian _ yesterday.

He said the Congolese company was at "crisis stations" and was trying to concentrate on the search.

The missing plane was first delivered to Cabo Verde Airlines in early 1992, then sold to Aero Service in December 1993.

The CASA 212 was designed in Spain in the late 1960s to replace the venerable DC-3 and first flew in 1971.

Designed as military transport, airlines pressed CASA for a commercial version which appeared in July 1975.

The plane has a high-mounted straight wing to enable it to land and take-off on short runways, while its rugged undercarriage allows it to land on rough gravel and grass runways.

The initial model carries up to 20 passengers in a 2-1 seating configuration. Aero Service's C212 was a 300 model which was produced from 1987 and is longer than the original design, with capacity for 26.

The C212 has been the subject of two major airworthiness directives relating to the autopilot and cracks in the wings. It is not know if the missing plane was affected by the directives or if corrective action had been taken.

The plane's poor safety record is partly because its operations involve flying into remote and small airports and low level flying as a military transport.

Africa has the world's worst safety record, according to the International Air Transport Association, with a crash rate up to 17 times higher than the world average. Last year, Africa and the Middle East accounted for 32 per cent of aircraft accidents but only 8 per cent of global air traffic.

The airlines of many African countries, including Congo, are banned from flying to Europe because of significant deficiencies relating to safety management by regulators.

Many countries have poor aviation infrastructure such as landing aids, rendering many sophisticated plane safety systems useless. Another serious problem is the theft of ground equipment such as navigation aids, and a lack of maintenance.

The situation has become so serious that pilots from some international airlines are pushing for routes that avoid flying over central Africa.

Another concern for the industry is the revelation from IATA that sloppy check list procedures by pilots were causal factors in 75 per cent of all accidents in Africa.

All i can say is money cannot buy sense.


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## bleach8 (22 June 2010)

We're going to go to a shareholders meeting as soon as practicable to ratify our appointment because there is no-one there to authorise our appointment.

"We'll be reporting that to ASIC (Australian Securities and Investments Commission) and will be acting under the auspices of ASIC while we carry that meeting out.

"I will build the board to the quality that it was.

"I feel a responsibility to these people - they've effectively given their lives to this company - and I feel a responsibility to their families and all of the people at Sundance including the shareholders."

Sundance was deeply saddened by the loss of former chief executive Don Lewis but still had an excellent management team, Mr Jones said.

"They are fiercely determined to make this company a success," he said.

"They are very capable and we feel with some guidance from this senior group of advisors acting as de facto directors until this meeting, that the company is in good shape.

"It's got a good balance sheet."

Mr Jones said studies for Sundance's Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon, a world-class deposit, was well progressed.

"This is the largest undeveloped iron ore project in the world not owned by a major."

Exploration work at the project was suspended on Monday to divert personnel to the search effort.

Mr Jones said plans to resume exploration work would be discussed late on Tuesday.

"I would suggest that people will be given a rest," he said.

"After a brief period, a few weeks rest each, we'll get back to business."

Sundance non-executive director Ken Talbot, the former chief executive of Macarthur Coal Ltd, was the most widely known among the six Australians who perished.

Sundance non-executive chairman Geoff Wedlock also was a well known executive in mining circles.

The other Sundance deceased directors include Mr Lewis, company secretary John Carr-Gregg and non-executive directors John Jones and Craig Oliver.

Mr Jones said all efforts were being made to repatriate the bodies of the deceased executives as soon as possible.

It could take some time, he warned, although the Congo and Cameroon governments and US and Australian consular officials in those countries were assisting along with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Mr Jones stepped down as chairman of Sundance in late August last year for a six-month break to rehabilitate from a medical operation.


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## lioness (23 June 2010)

George Jones has stated no trading for 2 months before putting another board in. Trading Halt for 2 months.

Probably doing us a favour given the market is about to tank.


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## TheAbyss (23 June 2010)

There will be no short term solutions here. Traders in SDL have 2 choices

1. Become long term investors in the hope that the SP bounces back
2. Book a loss and move on.

This was always a high risk project given the distance from the resource to transport and a complete lack of infrastructure. Ken Talbot was certainly capable of delivering on the project if anyone could. Can Nissen and Jones pull a rabbit out of the hat? Time will tell and i wish all Sh best of luck.

Unless you are prepared to park your money for a considerable period share holders should take the hit and invest what they have left elsewhere as this one will take at least 6-12 months to secure staff and turn this around once it starts trading again.

I am not a holder and offering an objective opinion only.


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## bleach8 (23 June 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> Unless you are prepared to park your money for a considerable period share holders should take the hit and invest what they have left elsewhere as this one will take at least 6-12 months to secure staff and turn this around once it starts trading again.
> 
> I am not a holder and offering an objective opinion only.




most of the holders are already long term holders, and before this, the shares was traded mainly by bots to accumulate ...

secure staff? you mean the borad members ? this will happen within next few weeks before the shareholders' meeting ....

even they want to wait for that long, the Cameroon Government wont want to wait that long... i would say 2 month suspension of the ground works in Cameroon maximum

It is hard to have an objective view about SDL if you have not studied the company for a long time and familiar with their project.


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## TheAbyss (23 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> most of the holders are already long term holders, and before this, the shares was traded mainly by bots to accumulate ...
> 
> secure staff? you mean the borad members ? this will happen within next few weeks before the shareholders' meeting ....
> 
> ...




In an enterprise of this nature 2 months is a heart beat Bleach. 6-8 months absolute minimum before you see anything concrete. 

And even harder to be objective when your holding the stock i suspect.

Not trying to say you are wrong we are all entitled to have an opinion. Good luck if you stay on board.


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## bleach8 (23 June 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> In an enterprise of this nature 2 months is a heart beat Bleach. 6-8 months absolute minimum before you see anything concrete.
> 
> And even harder to be objective when your holding the stock i suspect.
> 
> Not trying to say you are wrong we are all entitled to have an opinion. Good luck if you stay on board.




i'd love to know how you come up with the the minimum 6-8 months timeframe?

also its just hard to know what the institutions will do now...as the 56% hold by them.  

The development plan is still there...and all the management( not sure if you familiar with their management team) and Contractors will have to deliver what they were contracted to do ( rail way design etc ). More important, the Cameroon Government has already expressed their needs to continue the project…

Of coz there will be unpredictable events, like the one we just had …all I mean is the project will be delayed for 2-3months based on the sad event just happened. 

The project is now just too big and too advanced not to be proceeded. And there will be big $$ to be made for all parties involved…     

Well, again, my assumption is based on the delay cause by the recent event. There could be more events to delay the project, but I don’t want to make an irresponsible guess


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## $20shoes (23 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> The project is now just too big and too advanced not to be proceeded. And there will be big $$ to be made for all parties involved…




I thought the same thing with Bendigo Mining...spent hundreds of millions on infrastructure...opened it with all the media hoopla and fanfare, and then almost had to abandon the operation when production didn't return the goods. They've never recovered to those pre-production glory days. 

Its not an apples to apples comparison, but I guess my point is that mining projects can be a perilous affair - they're always a risk play.


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## TheAbyss (23 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> i'd love to know how you come up with the the minimum 6-8 months timeframe?





Simple, i listened to a broadcast interview with Don Nissen on ABC radio yesterday. 

Don Nissen stated that the rebuilding process would take time and estimated 6-8 months to get things back on track.

I have emailed ABC for a link to the audio file which i will post if they have a link.

Don't shoot the messenger!


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## lioness (23 June 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> There will be no short term solutions here. Traders in SDL have 2 choices
> 
> 1. Become long term investors in the hope that the SP bounces back
> 2. Book a loss and move on.
> ...




Not sure that is good advice. Anyone invested here is already long term, so makes no difference to us. It won't take 6 months to get a board. 1-2 months, we will have a chairman and most board done. You don't understand the company as they are nearing completion of their DFS and resource is already defined. One a partner deal is done, it will move along quicky. By December, I am expecting 20 cents plus. Come back and see me then to discuss.


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## lioness (23 June 2010)

Thanks Bleach, positive today, who knows tomorrow!!

as for Abyss stating 6-8 months, you have got NFI about this company and how well advanced they are in infrastructure, talks etc etc.

George Jones has already dealt with all these points for 8 years and can pick up easily with continued talks. He states he knows the partner in discussion and high level Cameroon officials so will just run with it.

As for operations there are already people on the ground every day talking to officials and drilling as they have been for 2 years. So it can carry on tomorrow. Stay away from here as you clearly know nothing about this company.


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## TheAbyss (25 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Thanks Bleach, positive today, who knows tomorrow!!
> 
> as for Abyss stating 6-8 months, you have got NFI about this company and how well advanced they are in infrastructure, talks etc etc.
> 
> ...




I do not to profess to have more knowledge than anyone else however i am able to listen and learn. I am also capable of being objective and not talking via my wallet. Your comments are pretty rude but thats your issue.

Link below for Don Nissan's interview where HE, not me, states 6-8 months. Now you can ring him and tell him he has NFI and to stay out of it also?

http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/...talbot.html?site=brisbane&program=612_morning

What news do you expect in the next 3 months then? It took years to put a capable board together and they will not be replaced in the short term (i am discounting temporary seat fillers such as legal minds etc as they cant get the project off the ground).

The IP loss will take a long time to replace and will more than likely be measured in the years not months as to replace the collective intellectual property will take time and experience. There are a lot of other concerns regarding the viability of this project such as location, infrastructure, transportation to market, geo political. concerns etc. I could go on but you get the point i trust.

The industry has a dearth of qualified people across all fields and at the upper echelons most who can deliver on a project of this magnitude are already gainfully employed. Not only will they need to be identified, head hunted, convinced to take the role etc they will need to be prepared to be out of country. That project alone will take your estimated 3 months. 

Other than some MOU's, platitudes and promises of fuilfilling the dream i cant see much eventuating inside 3 months. What do you actually expect to see? A DFS, BFS etc? What will actually result in pen to paper on a contract of any type other than an offer of employment in your view?

Time will tell.


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## bleach8 (25 June 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> Other than some MOU's, platitudes and promises of fuilfilling the dream i cant see much eventuating inside 3 months. What do you actually expect to see? A DFS, BFS etc? What will actually result in pen to paper on a contract of any type other than an offer of employment in your view?
> 
> Time will tell.




un-informed objective is not objective..ok?  

 all things will come...but first mining permits.

not sure if u have studied SDL's project, they have better fe% iron ore, large scale of of DSO, an even larger deposit with lower fe% iron ore (SDL's lower Fe deposit still has higher FE% than most of other projects, and SDL didnt even bother to drill it or declare it).  

Vale, BHP, and Rio all paid billions for projects not as good as SDL's , why !? make you wondering ...right? 

anyway, the new Borad will fly to Cameroon to sign the mining agreement with the Government- a delay of 1 month.

and SDL will start trading next week. 


http://fr.allafrica.com/stories/201006240924.html

Cameroon - Cameroonian mining, industrial and technological development Badel Ndanga Ndinga visited June 23 by late afternoon the headquarters of the CamIron presented the condolences of the Head of State and his family after the plane crash, its Director General Roger Bogner, associated with the Sundance Resources in developing the draft Mbalam 

This allowed him to sign the condolence book opened after the deaths of nine members of the Australian mining company Sundance Resources. The visit of Minister Badel Ndanga Ndinga allowed, official sources, reassuring Cameroonians over the outcome of the project Mbalam whose cost amounts to just over 2000 billion dollars. This news was made public June 23: A new Executive was appointed and a new management team has also been placed at the head of the Australian Mining Company Sundance Resources. 

From reliable sources, all are alumni of the house with a good knowledge of project Mbalam. Moreover, the new CEO of Sundance Resources George John, is none other than the former group finance director. To calm and reassuring Cameroon continuity of the project's operating Mbalam iron ore, the new executive will travel to Yaounde, the Cameroonian capital in the month of July, according to the agency Ai. For it is increasingly question the Government's entering the concrete and active phase of the project by making the signing of a number of documents including: operating license with the Minister of Finance, title to land with the Ministers of Land Affairs areas and in the presence of his counterpart, mining, industrial and technological development, before the final land acquisition for the project through the process of declaration of public utility by President of the Republic. 

Official documents on the ground that will trigger the commencement of the construction of deepwater port in the area south of Kribi Lolab, who had been selected because of its proximity to deep water, its relative distance to direct the mine and sparsity of population towards the end of 2010. The construction of the railway along about 504 km and mining facilities from 2011 to 2013. That was the purpose of the mission of the 9 missing in plane crash on 19 June. The minister said the program progress project certainly know with all these unexpected delays, but the completion of the project Mbalam is the most appropriate procedure that is to honor the memory of the fallen evergreen forest type camerouno-Congolese.


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## Joe Blow (25 June 2010)

Posts that reproduce entire articles from other websites will be removed immediately and an infraction will be issued. 

Please read this post on the correct way to quote articles from other websites: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=563686&postcount=30


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## springhill (25 June 2010)

I heard George Jones interviewed on Howard Sattler's Drive Program this arvo, and i believe George commented that SDL could be trading again as early as next week.
Not 100% on that, due to concentrating on my work at the time, did anyone else hear this and can confirm? I'm pretty sure i'm right.


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## bleach8 (25 June 2010)

springhill said:


> I heard George Jones interviewed on Howard Sattler's Drive Program this arvo, and i believe George commented that SDL could be trading again as early as next week.
> Not 100% on that, due to concentrating on my work at the time, did anyone else hear this and can confirm? I'm pretty sure i'm right.




ye...u r right ...they are waiting for ASIC to approve their adviers as defecto director so they can resume trading


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## lioness (26 June 2010)

bleach8 said:


> ye...u r right ...they are waiting for ASIC to approve their adviers as defecto director so they can resume trading




Bleach, who cares when they come back, it will be hit hard on open(9 cents is my guess), no doubt as margin lenders are in here waiting to dump.

It will recover over 1-2 months, but as you know already, until a finance partner is announced, this ain't going anywhere my friend.


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## springhill (26 June 2010)

lioness said:


> Bleach, who cares when they come back, it will be hit hard on open(9 cents is my guess), no doubt as margin lenders are in here waiting to dump.
> 
> It will recover over 1-2 months, but as you know already, until a finance partner is announced, this ain't going anywhere my friend.




YOU should care when they come back, YOU own part of the company. The deceased directors of SDL should never be forgotten, but the sooner the company gets back to business, the better for stake holders. This is not an insurmountable problem, i have not been a holder for a while and, frankly don't intend to, but with GJ back in the chair, i would take comfort in that.


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## Julia (28 June 2010)

An interview by Monica Attard with George Jones, followed by an interview with Martin Ferguson.
http://www.abc.net.au/sundayprofile/


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## Zodiac (29 June 2010)

Interesting to note that apart from Ken Talbot none of the other directors including the chairman have purchased shares ( of significance ) in the company. As a board of a company with so much near short term potential I do not understand why they would not have been purchasing shares in the company they control? 

Zodiac


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## lioness (29 June 2010)

Zodiac said:


> Interesting to note that apart from Ken Talbot none of the other directors including the chairman have purchased shares ( of significance ) in the company. As a board of a company with so much near short term potential I do not understand why they would not have been purchasing shares in the company they control?
> 
> Zodiac




Excellent point zodiac and I thought this myself. Anyone care to answer why? The CEO had 30 million options I noticed exercisable at 10 and 20 cents.


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## Richomania (30 June 2010)

They didn't own them directly but they certainly did through trusts and companies. Structured that way for tax reasons I would assume


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## Zodiac (2 July 2010)

You are "assuming" but the facts are that the directors had very little to no ownwership of the company in their names. Again why would that be? especially considering that this company is going to be the next FMG which has been spuked by the board for years??????

Zodiac.


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## bleach8 (2 July 2010)

Zodiac said:


> You are "assuming" but the facts are that the directors had very little to no ownwership of the company in their names. Again why would that be? especially considering that this company is going to be the next FMG which has been spuked by the board for years??????
> 
> Zodiac.



Hi

You are also "assuming" this company is going to be the next FMG....

there are only 4 listed companies can produce more than 30mt a year...it is not that easy to get the 3.3b funding ...especially after the recent event ...

lets hope for the best


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## Zodiac (4 July 2010)

I refer to the "board" BELIEVES it will be the the next FMG ( countless slides shows to prove it ) but my concern is "why" apart from Ken were the board THEMSELVES not prepared to invest in Sundance shares???

Surely this is a topic for discussion. 

Zodiac


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## MR. (4 July 2010)

Zodiac said:


> but my concern is "why" apart from Ken were the board THEMSELVES not prepared to invest in Sundance shares???




I often watched SDL’s board as to what they were doing in relation to their shares. Their CEO sold hundreds of thousands when he left the position of CEO of GRR. I wondered if SDL shares would one day turn up in his name, but never did. GJ appears to still have his shares in SDL. You always wonder what changes when directors stand down even for a short period. (GJ’s holding is under Friday’s announcement for Adam Rankine-Wilson  ???) 

Now Adam has been there from the start and it would be interesting to see what his holding actually is. Providing SDL doesn’t become a  .com  there should be no real reason for extra concern.


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## bleach8 (4 July 2010)

Zodiac said:


> I refer to the "board" BELIEVES it will be the the next FMG ( countless slides shows to prove it ) but my concern is "why" apart from Ken were the board THEMSELVES not prepared to invest in Sundance shares???
> 
> Surely this is a topic for discussion.
> 
> Zodiac




i dont hold any SDL under my own name....alll under my mum;s and brother;s name ...i believe these ppl were smarter than me ...so it is understandable for them not to hold under their own names, especially if SDL is going to generate substantial Captial gains


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## oldblue (5 July 2010)

It's not unusual for company directors not to hold shares in their own names but to hold them through a company structure or in the name of some other nominee.

There are valid tax, estate planning, public liability etc reasons to do so and I wouldn't draw any conclusions about the merits of SDL from this. What is important, is the level of beneficial ownership, however registered, that directors have. These must be disclosed in annual reports with changes notified and announced promptly via the ASX. It's also important of course to know whether a director has subscribed his own money for the shares and at what price - an initial "cut-price" perhaps? -  or has purchased on market or whether the shares have accrued through favourable option deals.

As an aside, I noticed that SDL don't appear to list the 2009 Annual Report on their website, or at least it's not listed in the "Reports" section.

Disc: Not holding SDL.


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## LRG (5 July 2010)

of course most directors or individuals such as myself don't hold enormous quantities of shares in our own names - poor for tax or asset protection.

but if a director holds in a company or trust it still shows up on the register as having a holding interest in SDL.

Ken Talbot had 433 Million in talbot Holdings + others in childrens names etc - it is no secret, whereas the other directors had virtually NIL shares in own name or associated entities - so why not????


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## LRG (5 July 2010)

ASX notices suggest that SDL will be taken off the trading hault in 2 weeks time.

I have a contrarian view that SDL will not tank to 7 cents on re-listing but will in fact rise in value to 20 cents.

Why you ask?

SDL got very little press in national or international news over the last couple of years.

Unfortunately, due to the tradgedy - everyone knows about SUNDANCE RESOURCES now. It has never had so much publicity as it has in the last month.  There is an air of "we must bring this project to fruition' as a show of respect for the lost directors.  And the Cameroon govt really wont it to succeed too. 

I think the infrastructure to port and mine will proceed now and the SDL price will rise stadily as a derivative of the income potential month by moth and year by year.  IMO, long term holders if stay with it will be big winners.


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## lioness (5 July 2010)

LRG said:


> ASX notices suggest that SDL will be taken off the trading hault in 2 weeks time.
> 
> I have a contrarian view that SDL will not tank to 7 cents on re-listing but will in fact rise in value to 20 cents.
> 
> ...




LRG, you are spot on here man. There is no such thing as bad publicity and this applies to SDL. It has had world ignition and expect the chinese to come in now with George Jones at the helm. GJ also got Gindalbie their chinese partner and had big connections there.

Also, cannot believe no-one spotted today's major announcement. READ THE SHAREHOLDINGS. GJ has 15 million shares in tax related entities and Adam rankine-wilson has 13 million shares in tax related entities. What is that telling you. HELLO, anyone out there??


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## LRG (7 July 2010)

I did spot this - forgot to comment on it.

Yes, it is a good sign that they have more than me!

They need it too succeed too!!



_LRG, you are spot on here man. There is no such thing as bad publicity and this applies to SDL. It has had world ignition and expect the chinese to come in now with George Jones at the helm. GJ also got Gindalbie their chinese partner and had big connections there.

Also, cannot believe no-one spotted today's major announcement. READ THE SHAREHOLDINGS. GJ has 15 million shares in tax related entities and Adam rankine-wilson has 13 million shares in tax related entities. What is that telling you. HELLO, anyone out there?? _


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## LRG (9 July 2010)

I read in our Brisbane Courier Mail today that Ken Talbot's funeral is on this Wednesday at 10.30 in the city Cathederal followed by a wake at the football stadium where rum & coke will be had - Ken's favourite drink.

I am going to go to the ceremony to show my respect.  Ken was the reason after his success in Macarthur Coal that I put all my money into SDL.

I am hopeful that his good work / legacy will come to fruition on SDL some time in the future for all of us holders.

Still shocked and sadened by the events of the last few weeks.  Life is a lucky dip or not isn't it - random acts.

cheers


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## LRG (16 July 2010)

Hello all,

all has been pretty quiet on this thread for a while now - strange?

I went to Ken's funeral in Brisbane on Wednesday - about 1100 people there.  I learnt so much about the guy I didn't know.  Most importantly his word was his bond on a handshake, he was very charitable, he loved his family and friends so much, he was very humble - "just a simple miner" - he was no snob and was worth around a billion.  Many people came to farwell him. Life is fragile.  His son Liam spoke so well as did his business associates and Wayne Bennett - very moving service.  He abviosly believed in the future of Sundance as does the new board.  What ever happens good or bad will happen.  I don't worry any more about if it fails or succeeds - I just have afeeling it will be successful, but if it doesn't - it's not the end of the world, I will still be around to try something else in my endeavours.  All the best to Ken's surviving family and especially 2 young daughters.  GR


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## LRG (16 July 2010)

Oh, and ASX announcement today.

SDL has applied to come off trading hault on Monday.

rollercoaster ride or not???

interesteing time ahead.

cheers.


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## kezman (19 July 2010)

not a bad resumption to sundance considering the events in the last month.
i believe theres positive times ahead here.


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## Johnny Utah (20 July 2010)

very happy to see the stock back trading around 14c! up 16% so far with 21m traded through! they have a investor presentation today. It may have created some interest with the exposure of the last month!


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## LRG (20 July 2010)

has hit 15 cents today.

just goes to show what a bit of publicity can do.

also the report / presentation out today is very positive and shows that they have re-mobilised very quickly to shore up SDL.

The future is looking okay IMO.

Lioness - where are you?? Hope you did not sell out on the open yesterday.


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## lioness (20 July 2010)

LRG said:


> has hit 15 cents today.
> 
> just goes to show what a bit of publicity can do.
> 
> ...




I am still here and waiting for my 50 cent target.

I reckon all this buying is due to a takeover offer coming sooner rather than later. See below stockbroking firm putting a 66 cent price target on them:

Sundance shares dip less than expected

PERTH, July 19 AAP
July 19 2010, 6:34PM
Shares in Sundance Resources Ltd slipped after the iron ore explorer emerged from a month-long trading halt entered into due to the death of its entire board in a plane crash in Africa.

Sundance shares finished down one cent, or 7.69 per cent, at 12 cents after hitting a low of 10.5 cents in intraday trade, with 65.8 million shares changed hands, making it the most traded stock by volume on Monday.

But analysts were expecting a bigger drop.

"The drop wasn't too bad in the context of a falling market," IG Markets strategist Ben Potter said.

Shaw Stockbroking research analyst Geoff Mures said Sundance had "held up quite well" given iron ore mining stocks had being weak in the past month amid softer spot prices for the bulk commodity.

Broker StoneBridge Securities Ltd last month slapped a "buy" recommendation and a 12 month target price of 66 cents on Sundance.

Mr Mures said Sundance could be seen as a takeover target and therefore a buying opportunity.

"Someone may seek to take advantage of the (share price) weakness and rather than do a (joint venture) deal, take over the company," he said.

Sundance on Friday said it was in discussions with potential strategic partners with an interest in building, operating and financing key project infrastructure.

With Sundance's Mbalam project in Cameroon expected to cost more than $3 billion to develop due to considerable infrastructure required to bring product to port, Sundance needed a joint venture partner with deep pockets, Mr Mures said.

Sundance also on Friday said it had received environmental approval from the Cameroon government for the Mbalam project.

"They've continued to make good progress ... and it's a long life project," Mr Mures said.

The Sundance board's plane went missing en route to Mbalam on June 19 and the news of their deaths broke on June 22, when the wreckage was found in the Republic of Congo.

Shareholders will vote on August 16 on whether to appoint reinstated Sundance chairman George Jones, commercial lawyer Michael Blakiston, investment banker Adam Rankine-Wilson, mining industry figure Barry Eldridge and former KPMG partner Fiona Harris as board members.

By Rebecca Le May

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/.../7/200/catf_100719_183400_8003.html:rolleyes:


----------



## jonojpsg (20 July 2010)

Don't know about takeover target, but certainly the 66c price target and loads of major news coverage has vaulted SDL to the front and centre of lots of peoples attention!

It was interesting to watch the orders fill up after the suspension wiped all previous - beforehand there was the huge backlog of sell orders left from a couple of years of traders jumping in and out and buy-highers hoping for a price spike to rescue them from their position.

Now we see the buy side at 3x the sell side, which is a big turnaround, and bodes well for the SP.  SDL are obviously undervalued, and although previously this might have been justified given their position out in the jungle, now I think people are realising that even with a multi-billion $ capex that the financials of the project are simply outstanding.

I'm loading up, and if you're reading this Nioka, which you should be given it's one of the few stock threads active, this is a share worth getting on IMO.


----------



## nioka (20 July 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> I'm loading up, and if you're reading this Nioka, which you should be given it's one of the few stock threads active, this is a share worth getting on IMO.




I'm in

19/07/2010  WB53072336  Buy  SDL  100,000  100,000  0.115  19/07/2010  
plus
19/07/2010  WB53073250  Buy  SDL  100,000  100,000  0.115  19/07/2010  

been watching this one for awhile. Had intended to enter when they were closer to production. Still speculative and not short term unless trading the swings but has possibilities. Worth a small punt but dont get too carried away with sympathetic hype. Trading and emotions are as bad as drinking and driving.


----------



## lemontree (21 July 2010)

Impressive timing nioka! I also bought in yesterday at around the same price. I wonder how SDL will fare today


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## jonojpsg (21 July 2010)

nioka said:


> I'm in
> 
> 19/07/2010  WB53072336  Buy  SDL  100,000  100,000  0.115  19/07/2010
> plus
> ...




Great work nioka  That was the point to get in, when they restarted trading on a down day  Agree with the sentiment re emotions and trading, I have been in and out of SDL for the last three years and watched as they hit 80c pre-GFC  Lots of people holding I reckon from those highs which I reckon is what provides the large sell side I mentioned last post.

There is definitely a process to follow though as they move along the timeline to production, in terms of relative value.  I like the report (RM Research) from 2006 which compares SDL to FMG with regards to how they were/are valued at scoping, PFS, DFS, financing stages.  This shows just how much SDL will jump once DFS is finished.  Can't see there being too much issue finding companies to take on build/operate/finance of rail/port etc given the sort of payback they are looking at (3-4 years).


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## Albi (25 July 2010)

Hi Fellow Shareholders,  Whats up! Am I reading correct the announcement that UBS and DBA stop to be substantial shareholding? In Canbberra Times today SDL is recommended as BUY. I am thinking to buy more. But there is no posting last few days. Your opinions are always helpful to determine th ebuy or sell. Thanks to all contributors.


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## nioka (25 July 2010)

Albi said:


> Hi Fellow Shareholders,  Whats up! Am I reading correct the announcement that UBS and DBA stop to be substantial shareholding? In Canbberra Times today SDL is recommended as BUY. I am thinking to buy more. But there is no posting last few days. Your opinions are always helpful to determine th ebuy or sell. Thanks to all contributors.




Researching SDL brings up snippits of information such as:

"'Broker StoneBridge securities Ltd last month slapped a "buy" recommendation and 12 month target price of 66c on Sundance'"

And

"A Chinese company will assemble cars in Cameroon 
FINANCE - Developments 
Written by Blaise Etongtek Batam 
Thursday, July 22, 2010 6:35 p.m. 

The consortium China General Technology Group (Geneterc) will soon establish in the Cameroonian city of Bamenda (North West), an assembly unit for tractors and buses. The revelation was made Tuesday in Yaounde, the capital, after a hearing between Chinese businessmen and the Prime Minister Philemon Yang. 

The Bamenda region was chosen because of its proximity to Central and West Africa who are the target market announced, said the president of the consortium, He Ponxing."

Plus;

"http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE66I22D20100720

DANIELI (DANI.MI) The company signed an agreement on Monday to build a 450 million euro steel plant in Cameroon, beating off Chinese competition, la Repubblica said citing a Danieli manager."

Then from company announcements:

"• Strong financial position with A$75 million cash in hand and no debt."

"• Discussions progressing with potential strategic partners on build‐operate‐finance
packages for key project infrastructure."


"• Key Mbalam Iron Ore Project remains on schedule for completion of DFS by end‐2010
and start of construction in 2011."

 There are plenty of positives to be found if you "google" around. There are not many negatives. However operations in the middle of Africa may not be as stable as those in Australia and certainly air travel and travel in general is not as safe. 

 My daughter has just returned from working as a volunteer there and has a few interesting tales to tell. One thing she said was that a lot of the locals continually have their hand out for "something for nothing".


----------



## jonojpsg (25 July 2010)

Albi said:


> Hi Fellow Shareholders,  Whats up! Am I reading correct the announcement that UBS and DBA stop to be substantial shareholding? In Canbberra Times today SDL is recommended as BUY. I am thinking to buy more. But there is no posting last few days. Your opinions are always helpful to determine th ebuy or sell. Thanks to all contributors.




Hmm, yep albi I saw that as well?  Couldn't be bothered wading through the whole ream of trades that both announcements included (why they do that and not include a summary I don't know??) but it was definitely a positive when they got on board so I'm not sure if it thus counts as a negative that they are offloading 

Although the substantial shareholder level is 5% so they might have only just dropped back under it - again hard to tell without a summary of all their trades

I'm definitely thinking about topping up though



nioka said:


> Researching SDL brings up snippits of information such as:
> 
> And
> 
> ...




They are very interesting snippets nioka, both of which would be ideally supportive of a ready supply of...wait for it...yeah, you got it, iron ore

Don't know how much IO a Eu450m plant uses but it's gotta be at least a reasonable percentage of 35MT/a doesn't it?

Good times ahead


----------



## LRG (29 July 2010)

looks like going to be a bit of volume today - 15.5 cents in early trade 10M.

Another ASX substantial holder announcement also today.

Last one was 2 days ago.

Big organisations seem to be "lining up thier ducks"


----------



## CarbonSteel (1 August 2010)

I find the Quarterly Report a little disturbing. There is no mention at all about "negotiations with prospective offtake partners advancing". There is usually some reference to this aspect of the project, but this time, not a word.

Is there something sinister in this omission? 

On the other hand, there are big players who are prepared to spend big money to develop ore mines in West Africa. Up to $US6 bn. 

Click link below.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ina-gets-its-ore/story-e6frg9cf-1225899234298


----------



## nioka (2 August 2010)

"Australian mining firm Sundance Resources has assured Cameroon's government its huge Mbalam iron ore project is on track despite a plane crash last month that killed its entire board of directors.

Mbalam, Sundance's main project is among a handful of big iron ore developments in west and central Africa and is seen as a cornerstone of Cameroon's effort to diversify its largely oil-dependent economy into mining.

Mr George Jones new chairman of Sundance met with Cameroon Prime Minister. Mr Jones said that "We came to assure him that the project is well on track. There is a new board in place and the new board has a strong determination to see this project implemented as soon as possible."

The Mbalam project, southeast of Yaounde near the Belinga mine in Gabon, holds an estimated 2.5 billion tonnes of high grade hematite and itabirite hematite. Sundance hopes to produce some 35 million tonnes per year with operations starting up in 2012.

It added that construction is due to begin in 2011 after completion of a feasibility study.

Renaissance Capital in a research note said that "We believe strategic interest in Sundance has increased as the asset approaches the definitive-feasibility-study stage, which is due by year end."

(Sourced from mineweb.com)


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## jonojpsg (2 August 2010)

Again appreciated nioka



nioka said:


> Renaissance Capital in a research note said that "We believe *strategic interest in Sundance has increased as the asset approaches the definitive-feasibility-study stage*, which is due by year end."
> 
> (Sourced from mineweb.com)




For me, this is the key point and fits with the pattern that I mentioned previously, that MC will appreciate significantly with DFS stage completed - potentially x3 or 4 depending on whether financing/partnerships/offtake arrangements come with it.  If they do, I would think x5 or 6 would be a more likely outcome, bringing it up to around $1/tonne of resource.


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## nioka (4 August 2010)

News of more progress. the new board are not sittig and waiting for something to happen.

Tue Aug 03 23:47:59 2010 EDT 

By Stephen Bell

Special to DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Kalgoorlie, Australia (Dow Jones)--Australia's Sundance Resources Ltd.
(SDL.AU) said Wednesday that it remains confident of approving its US$3.4
billion Mbalam iron ore project late this year after a completing a week of
discussions with the governments of Cameroon and Congo.

Having returned to Australia from West Africa earlier Wednesday, Chairman George Jones told Dow Jones Newswires that he has received a warm response from the two governments in talks over the proposed fiscal and infrastructure arrangements for Mbalam.

Sundance and the Cameroon government agreed to complete negotiations on a development convention for Mbalam by "the end of September" and then document it for the remainder of the year, Jones said on the sidelines of the Diggers


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## nioka (14 August 2010)

Mbalam Iron Ore project : a project of great expectation

04/02/2008 One of the things Cameroonians have been longing for is to see the Mbalam iron-ore project begin, if only because it will give the countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, an impulse, especially now that poverty is rampant.
The essentials that will be required to start the mining operations in the iron-ore fields of Mbalam, located to the south-east of Cameroon, have started arriving, such as office equipment and iron-ore laboratory-testing instruments.

CAM Iron, a limited liability company registered in Cameroon on April 14, 2005, has brought in the equipment. It has 10% shares of the company; the remaining 90% are owned by the Australian company SUNDANCE RESOURCES.

The company intends to put in investments worth 3 365 million USD, which is approximately 1 650 Billion CFA francs (more than half the state budget of Cameroon for 2008, which stands at 2 276 billion CFA francs, up from the previous budget by 25 OOO billion CFA francs). The iron production estimates at Mbalam have been put at around 35 million tons yearly. Its reserves are estimated at 1 000 million tons.

Exploitation proper should begin in 2011 and will last approximately 20 years. The National investment Corporation (SNI) could possibly buy over FOKOU iron rod investments so as to use part of the iron that will come in from Mbalam. In fact, the long-term goal of the country is to develop an iron and steel industry in the country. The authorities in government, negotiating this deal, are asking the Australian partners to be part-and-parcel of the deal, as well as to develop the entire port of Kribi, not just a part, as they previously intended to do.

Spin-offs will also include, the development of infrastructures including roads and a railway line (490 km), to link the region to the deep sea port at Kribi. The railway line will take off a thumbing 65% of the investment capital while mining activity will take up 19%.

The impatience the jobless in Cameroonian today are manifesting, including perhaps several thousands more in neighboring Central African Republic is understandable. They look up to the Mbalam project, not only as a job creator, they see it also as a possibility of having technology transferred to them. Those in Cameroon hope that government will take the necessary steps to right some of the errors that were committed while negotiating the construction of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline. The problems that are now beginning to surface, when examined from the standpoint of socio-economic fall-outs, show that it wasnt well negotiated.

On the field, 10 million CFA francs have been invested in the upgrading of a road from a locality known as Lele to Mbalam. Part of that money has also gone to build a school and to develop the companys site. According to sources in the Ministry of Industries, Mines and Technological Development, a letter of intent for the signing of a mining convention, should be on the table for signature any time between now and March 2008 ending.

The information being gleaned from other sources is that the signing of that letter of intent could take place on January 15, 2008. This in the hope that the Mbalam project is not delayed; after all, its the first time Cameroon is getting into this sector, with the Republic of Guinea (a serious competitor) threatening to increase its production to well over 70 million tons per annum. The deposits of this country are said to surpass those of Cameroon largely. Put differently, Cameroon has every reason to hasten up the project at Mbalam.

However, according to Cameroons legislation, the letter of intent is an important document. It precedes all of such investments. Through it, the partners involved must come to an agreement over a number of issues, following which an establishment convention is signed. This is the last and indispensable step toward any financial and technological investment.



Gemnda Buinda

www.crtv.cm/cont/nouvelles/nouvelles_sola_fr.php?idField


----------



## LRG (18 August 2010)

I note from ASX announcements that:
- the new board was elected unopposed
- the share price is stable
- next milestones:
- mining permit august
- appropriation of land october
- complete drilling october
- signing of govt convention november
- finalise offtake contracts - DECEMBER
- secure project FINANCE - DECEMBER

if this timeline is maintained; IMO we will see a significant spike in the SDL SP late in the year.  Maybe time to load up with some more shares?


----------



## springhill (18 August 2010)

LRG said:


> I note from ASX announcements that:
> - the new board was elected unopposed
> - the share price is stable
> - next milestones:
> ...




Was there any mention of a share consolidation? In a report from The West, George looks at one by the end of the year.
Something to be aware of.

"Mr Jones also hinted that Sundance would carry out a share consolidation before the end of the year, likely to be announced alongside positive corporate news, because he did not want the company to remain a high-volume day-traders' favourite.

"We have to get away from being a 15 ¢ stock," he said"

Full article here,
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bu...ance-sets-year-end-target-for-mbalam-funding/


----------



## CarbonSteel (20 August 2010)

Could be just another unsubstantiated rumour, but it is the first time that I have seen someone naming names of potential offtake partners.



> Australia's Sundance Resources (SDL.AX) is seeking a strategic partner for its more than $3 billion Cameroon iron ore project, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. ArcelorMittal, the world's top steel company, and South Korea's POSCO are among the steelmakers interested in the project, sources said.//Reuters




http://www.entrepreneurnewsonline.c...n.html?cid=6a00d83451c73369e20133f2ea98d1970b


----------



## Miner (20 August 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Could be just another unsubstantiated rumour, but it is the first time that I have seen someone naming names of potential offtake partners.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.entrepreneurnewsonline.c...n.html?cid=6a00d83451c73369e20133f2ea98d1970b




Carbon steel

Thanks for the link

I have posted some months earlier in this thread that SDL unfortunately donot have the capability to become a  producer. It is like the case one has $10 M winfall in Lotto or inheritance of a large prime plot of land. At the same time he orshe  does not know how to turn that money into a money spinning wheel. He or she needs a mentor, partner, business assciate to develop the wealth .

I am not rude but similar case was Hancock. His CRC investment is today more meaningful with the hands of Rio.

Mittal is a top class steel maker and looking for coal,iron ore throughout world. So it is more than likely hood that SDL needs a partner


----------



## nioka (20 August 2010)

The following article is hard to read as the translation is ????? but it does show that Sundance is active in searching for a Chinese partner

"Hebei Iron and Steel Group on overseas mining commanded the troops in West Africa 
20100818 12:23 At 12:23 on August 18, 2010 

Ãƒ ¿??l? By reporter Zhang Guodong each from Beijing 

mYFV???????V_?FF??? "Entangled" in the iron ore negotiations so that more overseas Chinese steel enterprises seeking to speed up the pace of mine, Hebei Iron and Steel Group naturally not far behind. 

810??FFLx??JSUNDANCE?L??h?pFV?lM?? August 10, Hebei Iron and Steel Group chairman, met with Yi-Fang Wang, general manager of SUNDANCE Australia chairman George Jones and his party, the two sides cooperate on matters of iron ore in West Africa had a conversation. 

?_??FV???_???818??FFh????Ãƒ ¿??????j??]?_whw?? "They have expressed joining us for the West African iron ore projects in the intention to cooperate." Yesterday (August 18), Hebei Iron and Steel Group, a leader of the "Daily Economic News" told reporters, "At present the two no specific co-operation started, the next step would be talk about specific projects. " 

HV?FV?rCF?rn?bI??RIÃ‚£p???FV??O?? Sentiment in the three major international mining of iron ore pricing mechanism will be closer to the spot price, the Chinese steel production and operation costs of enterprises are facing new challenges in the current control, the two sides negotiate iron ore project this really interesting. 

V?P? Ore source stability is essential to steel enterprises 

?????F???????PT?QMFV?}?? It is reported that earlier this year, Baosteel, Wuhan Steel, Anshan Iron and Steel, Hebei Iron and Steel and other steel enterprises in China more than a dozen executives, have jointly written to the relevant departments, hoping to solve the problem of iron ore imports rose to national level. ?FV?r?q??FI??LfC?R?l However, the iron ore price rise inevitable, help steel enterprises to control costs long association mechanism is also facing the situation of collapse. 

?FW?@?72?jc_'?FV?r???15% My steel mesh data show that since July 2 start low round of iron ore price increase exceeded 15% rebound. ?63%63.5%???Vr???r_153?/155?/??Vr??r155?/157?/?^???FV?cn_?jÃƒ ¿147?Krfh Of these, 63% ~ 63.5%, powder ore CIF India port offer has reached 153 U.S. dollars / ton to 155 U.S. dollars / ton CIF powder ore port in southern Brazil, quoted at 155 U.S. dollars / ton to 157 U.S. dollars / ton, is already more than Market rumors such as Rio Tinto iron ore suppliers and steel enterprises in Japan and South Korea the third quarter reached 147 U.S. dollars per ton pricing agreements. 

??MFV???J????V???M?81.6% Over the years, China imported iron ore mainly from Australia, Brazil and India, in the first half, the three mines account for 81.6% of total Chinese imports. HVR@????HV??R?FV?\70% Monopoly of the international mining enterprises have obvious advantages, such as the International Vale three mining enterprises, monopolizing the global iron ore shipping capacity of 70%. RV??r?? Monopolistic advantage of stronger, mine asking price higher. P@???MFV?3.1|?L4.1%M?r?qM?r111.5?/??q47% Customs figures show imports of iron ore in the first half China's total 310 million tons, up 4.1%; but the average price of imports rose sharply, the average price of imports was 111.5 U.S. dollars / ton, up 47% year on year. 

?bYF?T?s?V?FIP?FbI?FIh?"??@?IV?? Productivity experienced in the steel distribution business researcher Rong Liang He said mines crucial to the stability of the iron and steel enterprises in the steel industry chain, iron and steel enterprises have been in a weak position, so that the source of Chinese enterprises are eager to find mine. 

M??_ Intended to collaborate on projects in West Africa 

I??J?SFV?rCF?rnIl??????obI???Ã‚ µ Industry analysts believe that, with the spot price of iron ore pricing mechanism to move closer to the development of fluctuations in raw material costs increased significantly, to the steel enterprise production and management of cost control has brought new challenges. 

?j?FFHb_5000fÃ‚ µ?V?y?Mb?QFV?o??@Ã‚ ¶oz Currently, the actual capacity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group has reached 50 million tons, relying solely on the domestic deposit and can not meet the normal production of iron ore supply, mind you want to solve has been shown. 

818??FF?KdJFFV?? August 18, Hebei Iron and Steel Group are not denied the group's thirst for iron ore. ???FFcJFV?_l?SUNDANCE?Ã‚ ¡MbalamFV???_| In recent days, Hebei Iron and Steel Group is working with Australian iron ore development company SUNDANCE Mbalam Cameroon iron ore project to start their contacts. x??MbalamFV??_?R Yi-Fang Wang expressed the hope that Mbalam iron ore project in West Africa, can reach a consensus on cooperation. 

?_??FV???_??818??FF???Ãƒ ¿??????j??]?_whw?? "They have expressed joining us for the West African iron ore projects in the intention to cooperate." August 18, Hebei Iron and Steel Group is not named, responsible person of the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said, "now the two have not yet started specific cooperation, could talk about the next step will be based on specific projects. " 

?SUNDANCE?jJ11FV?b?I??MbalamFV?? It is reported that, SUNDANCE is Australia's 11th largest iron ore producer, with operations concentrated in West Africa Mbalam iron ore project. 

_lFV???K Development of iron ore in West Africa there are still many obstacles 

McJ?FV?????HFV???Ã‚ ? While in Australia, Brazil and India, a major exporter of iron ore, Africa or the international iron ore market newcomers. ^?jS???D_FVY? But now, many large multinational companies have turned to look at iron ore mining in Africa. 

??_???I? In fact, opening up markets in West Africa there are other Chinese companies figure. jFY1.678|?^arJ??VI?12.5%L??cFV?_l?729?Xc?sp?_l??Ãƒ ¢tSimandouFV? Previously, China Railway Materials to subscribe for 167.8 million pounds of mining companies in Africa 12.5% stake in iron ore development projects involved in Sierra Leone; July 29, the Rio Tinto Aluminium and formally signed in Beijing, the two sides will jointly develop Guinea West Mount Du (Simandou) iron ore project. MÃƒ ¢?Ã… ¡?FV?YbLhdXc?lR_lLY??c?} Although the West Mount Du item withstand "world-class iron ore assets," "third world" aura, but the future in cooperation with Rio Tinto Aluminium is still facing a long development period, capital investment enormous pressure and so on. 

??@?]?l?FF Again, this is also reminding interested in Hebei Iron and Steel Group commanded the troops in West Africa. ?IcFV_l????KL?FV??l?s????\??AO?Or?h??^_V??^?@?o_V@?? "China's enterprises to participate in the development of West African iron ore, there are many obstacles." Long-term iron ore project in West Africa He Rong Liang said, the African political instability, economic backwardness and transportation infrastructure is poor, leading to some areas of mining Additional costs are too high, they gave mining earnings instability. ?V?d??Ã‚·FÃ‚·?AO? "Mining ore in West Africa, to construct the port, road and rail infrastructure." 

?I?J?_FV?Y??_???????Ã‚ ¡???b??Lrg@??I??_? Many in the industry believe that, in West Africa to develop iron ore resources, there are many uncertain factors, and many projects, including Cameroon, the project put into production yet to really take a long time, this will push Chinese enterprises in the local mining costs. FV????FV?Y?FV???cR????]?? "In the iron ore negotiations, wanted to help the West African iron ore resources in three major iron ore suppliers to break the monopoly of the market, not likely in the short term." "


----------



## nioka (20 August 2010)

BEIJING, Aug 19, 2010 (SinoCast Daily Business Beat via COMTEX) --

China's largest steelmaker by output, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, is reportedly talking with Australia's Sundance for potential co-operation on the Mbalam project in West Africa.

The Chinese steel producer was previously in talks with Aurox Resources to acquire a stake in the Ridley mine, but no actual agreement was reached. In March this year, Atlas announced its plans to buy Aurox Resources. Ridley is expected to produce 15 million mt of iron ore per year over the next 35 years. Hebei Iron and Steel Group started to look for overseas iron ore resources earlier this year.

Chinese companies have been interested in purchasing iron ore resources to secure raw material supplies and reduce dependence on the three big miners - Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. China, the world's largest iron ore consumer, increased ore imports by 42% to a record 628 million tons in 2009.


----------



## poortrader (20 August 2010)

why was there trading till 530pm today?

thats what im seeing on etrade, and down -0.005


----------



## LRG (31 August 2010)

Re: SDL - Sundance Resources

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I note from ASX announcements that:
- the new board was elected unopposed
- the share price is stable
- next milestones:
- mining permit august
- appropriation of land october
- complete drilling october
- signing of govt convention november
- finalise offtake contracts - DECEMBER
- secure project FINANCE - DECEMBER

if this timeline is maintained; IMO we will see a significant spike in the SDL SP late in the year. Maybe time to load up with some more shares?   

did mining permit happen?

next step - appropriation of land - OCTOBER

SP is stable - low volume day traders have gone away


----------



## LRG (31 August 2010)

how do you do that thing when you take a previous comment and put QUOTE arond it??????


----------



## Joe Blow (31 August 2010)

LRG said:


> how do you do that thing when you take a previous comment and put QUOTE arond it??????




Learn all about the quote tags here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2737


----------



## RP_Automotive (1 September 2010)

Hi all,

THe next week or so will be very interesting to see if management can stick to the timeline. My belief is that they will be able to (and will) stick to all of it except the financing, that is the only real question mark in the whole thing. It will be good to see some more drilling results to 'keep our mouths wet' which I think will be due out soon aswell.


----------



## thestevo888 (2 September 2010)

hey guys,
      No doubt a noob question, but with regards to the share consolidation mentioned by Springhill, how do people see this playing out? ie, good or bad for share price? I read a thread on the forum about consolidations which basically seemed to cast them in a negative light... any thoughts?
thanks in advance.


----------



## nioka (2 September 2010)

thestevo888 said:


> hey guys,
> No doubt a noob question, but with regards to the share consolidation mentioned by Springhill, how do people see this playing out? ie, good or bad for share price? I read a thread on the forum about consolidations which basically seemed to cast them in a negative light... any thoughts?
> thanks in advance.




Traders generally don't like consolidations after the initial period where they trade on the uncertainty of the SP. To long term investors they have some advantages.
 The disadvantage for traders is the fact that it requires larger price swings to reap the same percentage. However the advantage for investors is tied to the fact that some stable long term funds that have rules that prevent them buying stocks priced at under $1 are able to purchase those stocks after a share consolidation that brings the SP into their price range.

So as I see it; bad for traders, good for long term investors. Therefore often not so good short term but good long term.


----------



## thestevo888 (7 September 2010)

Thanks, Noika - that makes sense. This seems to be a company to stick with long term, so good news for those that do I just wish I could afford to buy more - the fundamentals of this company seem pretty impressive.


----------



## Johnny Utah (8 September 2010)

Some positive news just came out then my fellow SDL holders!! Hopefully we will get some solid SP improvement?!?!

8 September 2010
*ASX/ MEDIA RELEASE
MBALAM PROJECT MOU WITH CHINA RAIL – AFRICA*
CRCC China-Africa Construction Limited (“CAC”) and Sundance Resources Ltd (“Sundance”) are pleased to announce that they have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) to establish the scope, cost and delivery programme for the railway track and rolling stock needed to support Sundance’s Mbalam Project in Cameroon and Congo, West Africa.
The MOU was signed for CAC by its Chairman, Mr Chen Xiaoxing and for Sundance by Board Chairman, Mr George Jones.
The MOU commits the Parties to work together to establish:
 Scope, cost and programme for delivery of track and rolling stock sufficient to support planned output of 35m.t.p.a. of iron ore from Sundance’s proposed Cameroon and Congo Mines (“Mine Rail Project”); and
 Terms of EPC Contract under which CAC would deliver the Mine Rail Project.
At the conclusion of that work the Parties may enter into a Delivery Contract for the Mine Rail Project. Neither Party is bound to enter into the Delivery Contract if it is not prudent to do so.
The MOU recognizes that the Mine Rail Project will be integral with the Mine Project itself and the Lolabe Port Development Project.
The MOU also recognizes that the Rail, Mine and Port Projects are subject to a range of conditions precedent including government approvals, funding and title requirements for the rail corridor and other assets.
Page | 2
Sundance Chairman, Mr. George Jones, said:
“This is a key milestone for the Mbalam Project. I’m delighted to have reached this agreement with CAC. Their depth of experience and strong presence in the region and the vast resources of their parent corporation, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited, give us great confidence in the outcome. I understand that our colleagues at CAC already have a team of more than 30 people underway on this task.”
CAC Chairman, Mr. Chen Xiaoxing, said:
“We are glad to reach this agreement with Sundance and will bring all our experience and technology to this project. Our highly-skilled engineers, artisans, financial experts and construction specialists will work on this project.”
CRCC China-Africa Construction Limited was established earlier this year to consolidate the activities of its parent, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (“CRCC”) in Africa. CRCC’s engagement with Africa now spans over four decades.
ENDS


----------



## LRG (8 September 2010)

Jonny,

You beat me to it - just saw the news on ASX after wondering why there has been 40M+ shares traded today.

This is a great milestone!

"Let the pigeons loose" - hopefully this will hit the business newspapers around the country tomorrow and we will see some SP growth finally for all us patiently waiting for this complex project to get moving. 

Lioness - are you still holding - you have gone quiet of late?


----------



## The Muffin Man (8 September 2010)

It's great news. Nothing is guaranteed, but you would have to think that the Chinese have done some serious homework on this already, and that discussions are already advanced if a MOU has been signed. MOU's don't get signed after the interested parties only have a look at the project for a day or two.

The MOU might also have the effect of moving along the mining permit applications and mining conventions. I think the respective Cameroonian & Congolese Governments would be much more inclined to sign off on these measures with a MOU in place with a powerhouse partner.

It's going to be a hugely interesting run to Christmas I think, I hope our patience is well rewarded!


----------



## jonojpsg (8 September 2010)

Yep, just posted this in Potential Breakout thread as well because IMO it is going to run from here.

This is for one main reason - the fact that traders and holders have been waiting so long for some/any news that now there is some and it is positive, it will unleash the pressure that has been building in the minds of many (myself included, and maybe I'm projecting so take this all with a big grain of salt) and I reckon people will start buying in earnest.

Seriously though, we've all seen the numbers run in this thread before, and SDL should/will be valued at more like $1 if they sign up partners and finance and start construction next year.  That leaves a big run *UP* over the next 6-12months


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## laurie (8 September 2010)

One major plus for me is that the Greens & Labor will not get one cent from the MRRT from this company

laurie


----------



## springhill (8 September 2010)

laurie said:


> One major plus for me is that the Greens & Labor will not get one cent from the MRRT from this company
> 
> laurie




Spot on, i think we will see alot of movement in price and volume to overseas mined operations. Already noticed it in a couple of my holdings and watchlisted companies today.


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## lioness (9 September 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Yep, just posted this in Potential Breakout thread as well because IMO it is going to run from here.
> 
> This is for one main reason - the fact that traders and holders have been waiting so long for some/any news that now there is some and it is positive, it will unleash the pressure that has been building in the minds of many (myself included, and maybe I'm projecting so take this all with a big grain of salt) and I reckon people will start buying in earnest.
> 
> Seriously though, we've all seen the numbers run in this thread before, and SDL should/will be valued at more like $1 if they sign up partners and finance and start construction next year.  That leaves a big run *UP* over the next 6-12months




Yes, I am still in this and have been for 5 months. I exoect this to surge now as we have not even started to release the real news. We all know the masters have been accumulating here for the last 2 years and now will unleash momentum like no tomorrow.

I expect 50 cents by years end with $1 by 6 months time.

This has potential to be another FMG and within 2 years we will know what we are.

If it hits 70 cents, I will be a millionaire once again. 
GO SDL.


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## Joe Blow (12 September 2010)

lioness said:


> I expect 50 cents by years end with $1 by 6 months time.




Lioness,

Price targets must be accompanied by analysis. Please explain why you expect SDL to reach these price targets in the timeframe you have suggested.


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## sorcar (13 September 2010)

Its been up to around the 90c in the past - it may not necessary hold such a price, but I wouldnt be surprised if it reached there purely on investors excitement.

I've been watching this back since 2007 and only recently had a another look at it. Im not holding atm - just quietly watching waiting for a nice price to jump in.

I just dont know where this price is going, I hoping that it will slow down a bit.

I wonder how many people still hold old stock above 30c?


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## RP_Automotive (13 September 2010)

sorcar: I'm in a similar boat to you, been constantly in & out of this stock since 2006ish. It's difficult to say where it might go, my honest opinion is that if there are no more announcements in the next month that it could settle around 18-19c. On the other side, if the mining permits, another MOU and/or some drilling results come out, we could be anywhere. I'm extrememly greateful that my current holding is averaged @ 11.8c, I too held shares @ 40-60c in the past and I imagine there are some who are still waiting to 'get even', and I wish them all the best


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## sorcar (13 September 2010)

I watched back in 2007 but never held - it was on my watch list.

There is a lot of recent holders in the 13-19c mark which i also think in a several weeks could go back down if it is quiet. But like you said, I could also see it jumping to 50c if positive news comes out.


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## The Muffin Man (13 September 2010)

I'm personally hoping that we hear news come from Cameroon that the Mining Permit has been granted. This will further de-risk the project. Going by the timeline, that was supposed to come by the end of October, not that I'm complaining with the MOU announcement! We should also see some drilling results soon I would think, as all drills have been up and running again for some time now. Nabeba South hadn't been explored at the time of the last resource announcement, so it's not unthinkable that we might get a DSO upgrade at some point.

Very exciting times ahead I think.


----------



## CarbonSteel (13 September 2010)

The Muffin Man said:


> I'm personally hoping that we hear news come from Cameroon that the Mining Permit has been granted. This will further de-risk the project. Going by the timeline, that was supposed to come by the end of October, not that I'm complaining with the MOU announcement! We should also see some drilling results soon I would think, as all drills have been up and running again for some time now. Nabeba South hadn't been explored at the time of the last resource announcement, so it's not unthinkable that we might get a DSO upgrade at some point.
> 
> Very exciting times ahead I think.





With ya there Muff!

So glad I never scratched that often present itch!

Also there seems to be some natural justice. Those fine men did not die in vain. I truly believe their mishap contributes to the betterment of SDL. What now happens is honouring them and is enhanced by Mr Jones, I think. Actually, the whole team should be recognised for their abilities and efforts, in my opinion.


----------



## TabJockey (13 September 2010)

Can anyone give any opinion of the directors?

Interested in buying at around 20c but dont want to contribute to a slush fund. 

Last quarter cash flows indicated 10 million spent on exploration and 8 million spent on administration. Is it normal for administration to take up 44% of expenses at this stage of development?  I know you need a lot of cash lubricant in a country like Cameroon .


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## sorcar (13 September 2010)

Well all directors died in a plane crash just 3 months ago in congo.

So you couldnt really comment


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## jonojpsg (13 September 2010)

TabJockey said:


> Can anyone give any opinion of the directors?
> 
> Interested in buying at around 20c but dont want to contribute to a slush fund.
> 
> Last quarter cash flows indicated 10 million spent on exploration and 8 million spent on administration. Is it normal for administration to take up 44% of expenses at this stage of development?  I know you need a lot of cash lubricant in a country like Cameroon .




I would have thought the administration value of $8m would include all the DFS costs wouldn't it?  That would be all the engineering, etc. which given the scope of what they are looking at would be no small exercise.   Also includes all costs associated with plane crash, repatriation of bodies, etc.

IMO the current directors all appear to be genuinely interested in getting SDL across the line to achieving production...although of course they would be given the benefits that would accrue to them if they do get that far

Am in agreeance with previous posts that posit a settling around 18-20c if news flow is not regular from here...although I think the directors are well aware of the need for regular flow of news from here on in if they are to maintain SP rises.   Of course getting the SP as high as possible is of huge benefit in 2-3 months for financing in terms of possible further dilution with issues for financing/partnerships etc. 

I'm loading up with all I've got from here on in as I think, and refer to previous valuations done in this thread, that lioness' estimates are pretty much on the mark, eg 50+ by years end and $1 within 12 months - ASSUMING all deals are locked in obviously.


----------



## nioka (13 September 2010)

TabJockey said:


> Can anyone give any opinion of the directors?
> 
> Interested in buying at around 20c but dont want to contribute to a slush fund.
> 
> Last quarter cash flows indicated 10 million spent on exploration and 8 million spent on administration. Is it normal for administration to take up 44% of expenses at this stage of development?  I know you need a lot of cash lubricant in a country like Cameroon .




An odd question if ever I have seen one. These are new directors chosen by the majority shareholders recently. They face a huge task and seem to be keeping the company on track. To do this so soon after the tragic loss of the complete board is a feat that should be admired.

The company is not a production business at this stage so there are no production costs. The company is getting organised as a prospector for iron ore in two foreign countries. It should develop into a miner. In the meantime expect a lot of expenditure to be administrative.


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## kash (14 September 2010)

Thing are moving with great pace. go go go

                          MBALAM PROJECT MOU WITH 

         CHINA HARBOUR ENGINEERING COMPANY LTD 

China   Harbour   Engineering   Company   Ltd   (“CHEC’’)            and    Sundance      Resources      Ltd 
(“Sundance”)  are  pleased  to  announce  that  they  have  entered  into  a  Memorandum  of  
Understanding  (“MOU”)  to  establish  the  scope,  cost  and  delivery  programme  for  the  
proposed   bulk   materials   port   at   Lolabe,   Republic   of   Cameroon.   The   Port   is   needed   to 
support Sundance’s Mbalam Project in Cameroon and Congo, West Africa.


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## Dreadweave (14 September 2010)

kash said:


> Thing are moving with great pace. go go go
> 
> MBALAM PROJECT MOU WITH
> 
> ...




Market seems to be jumping in with this news, 12% gain high volume open today.   nice!


----------



## jonojpsg (14 September 2010)

Yep, and I reckon there's enough news from here till the end of the year to keep these coming regularly (maybe one every one-two weeks?) to keep the fire lit under this rocket 

I really hope that everyone out there who is watching this gets at least some of the action, coz we all remember seeing FMG at 2c or PDN at 5c and thinking afterwards why the hell did I not get on these and stay on them????  For mine it will certainly be a game maker if they get to our targets - here's hoping


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## noie (14 September 2010)

Bolly bands got me in on the 2 Aug and i am out today.

I am wondering now (hindsite) how far can these new guys go...

they are back in the watch-list Time will tell if i get back on.


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## sorcar (14 September 2010)

If they dont keep hitting the market with good news i think it will slowly come down.

I'm still sitting on the side line pondering whether I have missed the boat...I have surely missed the first boat.

Very high volume today - a lot people taking profit I assume


----------



## Rick64 (14 September 2010)

sorcar said:


> If they dont keep hitting the market with good news i think it will slowly come down.
> 
> I'm still sitting on the side line pondering whether I have missed the boat...I have surely missed the first boat.
> 
> Very high volume today - a lot people taking profit I assume




hi sorcar first post here
I wanted to buy after the crash on purely emotional grounds
Finally had some cash last week and put 70pc into SDL @ .21
Very happy obviously
Have done heaps of study on SDL and think it is my safest bet ever
SP may go down a little but in for long haul
Cheers


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## nioka (14 September 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> I'm loading up, and if you're reading this Nioka, which you should be given it's one of the few stock threads active, this is a share worth getting on IMO.






nioka said:


> I'm in
> 
> 19/07/2010  WB53072336  Buy  SDL  100,000  100,000  0.115  19/07/2010
> plus
> ...




The above were posted on July 20th. In less than 2 months the SP has gone from 11.5c to todays price of26.5c. 

This stock and the progress it has made in that short time shows the value of the information that is available for those that log on to ASF.  

Not that I am suggesting that all information here will get the same results. However if it had not been for stock forums I may not have decided to look into the fundamentals that influenced my decision to invest in this stock.

The company management seems to have overcome the tragic accident that could have set the company on a path to destruction. They are to be congratulated. Progress is better than I had anticipated. If the Chinese demand for iron ore continues then I'm confident that SDL will prosper.


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## CarbonSteel (15 September 2010)

sorcar said:


> Well all directors died in a plane crash just 3 months ago in congo.
> 
> So you couldnt really comment




Wrong. I can make any comment I like. I don't need you to tell me whether or not I can comment. I am a long term holder and have followed every development in this company. 

You can search for yourself my history in this forum if you know how to do it.

I am well aware of the plane crash, and the outcome and the meaning for this company.

Some of us have way more miles with this company than you. (I notice that you are a very new contributor to this forum, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you were going off half-cocked)

Or you can simply continue to act ignorantly. Your choice I guess.

Please have some respect for the fine men who have delivered a profit-making opportunity to you.

There were a lot of hard yards put in before the BOD that you now see. The current BOD, while very accomplished, did not put SDL where they are today by themselves. An exception and an exceptional person is of course Mr. George Jones. :aus:


----------



## sorcar (15 September 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Wrong. I can make any comment I like. I don't need you to tell me whether or not I can comment. I am a long term holder and have followed every development in this company.
> 
> You can search for yourself my history in this forum if you know how to do it.
> 
> ...





Well the question was - what was peoples opinion of the directors - implying that the directors were spending too much money on administration. Such spending would of been done by the past directors. Hence why I said that it you couldnt really comment because there are a new set of directors. So even if the previous were over spending on administration - the new directors could be completely different.

Sure you probably could still comment on it (and its only my opinion) - but in no way did I think my post was out of line, and in any case it didnt deserve a response like yours.


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## nioka (15 September 2010)

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/sundance-rides-high-on-chinese-port-wave-20100914-15a3d.html

Sundance rides high on Chinese port wave
September 14, 2010 - 5:49PM

Sundance Resources has appointed a Chinese engineering firm to cost and plan a bulk materials port in Cameroon to export iron-ore, prompting its shares to rise to a two-year high.

Sundance is also seeking a project partner to provide equity and sign a 10-year offtake agreement for its mines.

The Western Australia-headquartered explorer said it entered into a memorandum of understanding with China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd (CHEC) to establish the scope, cost and delivery program for the 35 megatonne per annum Lolabe Port.

The agreement follows last months deal with CRCC China-Africa Ltd to scope and cost the Mbalam projects 490km railway line.

Sundance said the deal is another big step forward for its Mbalam project in Cameroon and the Congo, which faces unique challenges to do with infrastructure and remoteness.

I think it is giving the market confidence that there is a delivery solution for this project, Sundance chairman George Jones said. These agreements will fix the delivery requirements for our logistics infrastructure from mine to ship.

Shares in Sundance gained 1.5 cents, or 6 per cent, to close at 26.5 cents, the highest since September 2008.

The biggest and best railway builders and port builders in the world are the Chinese, Mr Jones said. They are very keen and will be able to deliver a bankable solution.

Mr Jones said the company was talking to potential investment partners.

Were talking to a wide range of potential participants, not all from China, Mr Jones said. I know a lot of steel mills and we are talking to them all.

Mr Jones said the company was forging ahead with plans to finalise all foundational agreements this year, so it could begin the two and a half year construction timetable mid 2011.

There is a lot happening, the company has indicated it would like to complete all of these types of negotiations by the end of this year, Mr Jones said.Were hoping to start construction mid next year.

Mr Jones said the company continued to move forward following the death of six of its board members in a plane crash in West Africa in June.

It is ten weeks ago now, the scar tissue is healing over, Mr Jones said. We have been looking for a new chief executive and hopefully we will end that process shortly.

These people were all friends of mine and the last 10 weeks have been very tough for me.

I assure you we are forging ahead.Sundance had not agreed to enter into a delivery contract for the port project with CHEC.

AAP


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## foxtrot (15 September 2010)

A good deal of profit taking on the 14th and 15th .. now im just wondering are we gonna see a 'head and shoulders' pattern here or is the 0.26 mark going to be sundance's next plateau? 

Looking at the SDL's chart from the end of the trading halt to the announcement of the MOU for the rail line..SDL seems to like plateaus :


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## ocelot (17 September 2010)

There is an inside briefing that has been published on the ASX. It really seems to be shaping up. I am watching this stock here is hoping I can cash in some other shares to get more on board!


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## Johnny Utah (17 September 2010)

See attached the interview with George Jones today.

This is a small wrap from DJ-
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Sundance Resources Ltd. (SDL.AU) expects to arrange offtake contracts and project finance for its Mbalam iron ore project by the end of the year. 
In an interview released to the Australian Securities Exchange on Friday, Chairman George Jones said that talks with strategic partners are "well advanced" and foundation agreements with steel mills would be in place by the end of 2010, allowing construction work to begin next year. 
The company has resources of 415 million metric tons of hematite ore and 2.3 billion tons of itabirite--a lower-grade variety of iron ore common in Brazil--at its tenements along the border between the central African countries of Cameroon and Republic of Congo.

The project is dependent on the construction of a 450 kilometer railway line and port at Lolabe in Cameroon. Sundance shares have risen more than 50% since it announced a memorandum of understanding with China-Africa Construction Ltd. on Sept. 8, entering discussions to build the railway line, while a separate port deal with China Harbour Engineering Co. was signed on Sept. 14.


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## pixel (17 September 2010)

Recovery appears to be on the way.
Fibonacci suggests yesterday's Close may have been THE support. If true, I'd imagine 42c wasn't impossible.
Not holding yet, but bidding 24c.
(Note: 23c has been support and resistance several times in the past few years.)


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## Lootius (20 September 2010)

UBS AG is making another buy this morning as per company announcements. 

If their form is the same as last week i expect they'll be looking at another quick profit.


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## LRG (7 October 2010)

I note with interest that Sundance has been on the move north again the last couple of days.

Today so far it is on highgs of 27.5 cents (+ 2 cents) without any real news.

For some reason, there are more buyers than sellers.

From the timeline put out by SDL - the definitive drilling report or signing of MBalam convention is imminent?


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## kash (7 October 2010)

Really with all the progress that has been made with 2 mou's for rail and port. The fact that the resource is already in ground and will only grow. Plans for finance, offtake agreements and govt approval well advanced( by end of year). Sundance is extremely undervalued. Now the new board has proved themselves with move forward in leaps and bounds toward construction of mine to start mid next year, i think interest will only get stronger. This could be last chance to hope on board.


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## nioka (7 October 2010)

kash said:


> This could be last chance to hope on board.




I like the spelling of "hop". Maybe it was the right choice of words.

SDL has recovered 170% since my buy followingthe tragic accident and that increase is due to the actions of the new board. I am a long term holder to the point where I suggest that it is fairly priced now. I expect there will be gradual increases as the steps towards production are successfully completed, however production is a long way down the track. Don't expect too much too soon. Patience should be rewarded but be prepared fo a possible slip between the cup and the lips as it were.

A lot is riding on where and at what conditions are encountered raising the capital required to comlpete the project and the politics that will be attached.


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## kash (8 October 2010)

Thing are moving along again with new appointment. But there are also some nice comments about progress in other areas.
Mr   Casello’s   appointment   comes   as   Sundance   *prepares  to   complete*   foundation   off-take, 
funding and joint venture agreements to underpin development of Mbalam.
“I   have   made   it   clear   that   I   have   set   a   firm   deadline   to   have   all   foundation   agreements 
required for development of the Mbalam Project to proceed in place by no later than March 
2011 – a timetable which would enable us to begin construction on schedule by the middle 
of next year. With key MOU’s recently completed in relation to the development of port and 
rail infrastructure, I am confident that this timetable is achievable.


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## jonojpsg (8 October 2010)

nioka said:


> I like the spelling of "hop". Maybe it was the right choice of words.
> 
> SDL has recovered 170% since my buy followingthe tragic accident and that increase is due to the actions of the new board. I am a long term holder to the point where I suggest that it is fairly priced now. I expect there will be gradual increases as the steps towards production are successfully completed, however production is a long way down the track. Don't expect too much too soon. Patience should be rewarded but be prepared fo a possible slip between the cup and the lips as it were.
> 
> A lot is riding on where and at what conditions are encountered raising the capital required to comlpete the project and the politics that will be attached.




I tend to agree nioka.  I think with the latest comment from GJ that all arrangements will be in place no later than March next year, that kind of pushes back the end of year target that a lot were looking toward, probably including me.  I think a fair valuation would be around 50c at the point where all arrangements are in place which gives a fairly steady rise over the next 6 months.

Don't forget too that the share consolidation will also be in play at some point - most likely 1:10 so share price would then have more room to move at lower percentage gains, eg current SP would be $2.75 rather than 0.275.  Would make it less attractive to day traders.  Also means longer term price targets are likely to be in the order of $15+ post consolidation.


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## thestevo888 (8 October 2010)

Alright, time for another annoying newbie question. I've sunk a bit of money into Sundance over the past couple of months - wish I'd got in a little earlier than I did- 11 cents vs 14-18 cents - and am really impressed with the management, potential resources, and other fundamental aspects of this company...

Can some wise head tell me, though, what this company should be worth in today's market, when it is engaged in full scale production? (with or without the share consolidation, of course) Is the last post about a $15 post-consolidation sp about as high as it will go on its current resource estimates? I would have thought (and again, I stress newbie - don't hack on me too badly) that with an unconsolidated share base and in full production this would have the potential to go to $4 or more... or am I way off track? 
Obviously the comparisons with FMG that the broker report of a few years ago brought up rely on a lot of variables.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts, guys - a good hour every day on this site is doing wonders for my understanding of the sharemarket.


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## nioka (8 October 2010)

thestevo888 said:


> Can some wise head tell me, though, what this company should be worth in today's market, when it is engaged in full scale production? (with or without the share consolidation, of course) Is the last post about a $15 post-consolidation sp about as high as it will go on its current resource estimates? I would have thought (and again, I stress newbie - don't hack on me too badly) that with an unconsolidated share base and in full production this would have the potential to go to $4 or more... or am I way off track?
> Obviously the comparisons with FMG that the broker report of a few years ago brought up rely on a lot of variables..



.

Read my last post again. Nothing I see changes my mind. There are a lot of "things" that can happen.  The potential is great if the stars align. There is some risk. If the path to success was written in stone the SP would be based on a definite outcome.


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## thestevo888 (9 October 2010)

Thanks Nioka. I musn't have expressed myself as clearly as I wanted to... it's been a long week. 
I know there are risks associated with any resource company pre-production, which is why the sp is still under 30c. I suppose what I am curious to know is, if Sundance was in full production now, debt paid off, (as they are hoping it will be after 3-4 years of production) what its share price would be. For instance, all risks removed, favourable offtake agreements inked, etc would it be on a par with FMG?


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## jonojpsg (10 October 2010)

thestevo888 said:


> Thanks Nioka. I musn't have expressed myself as clearly as I wanted to... it's been a long week.
> I know there are risks associated with any resource company pre-production, which is why the sp is still under 30c. I suppose what I am curious to know is, if Sundance was in full production now, debt paid off, (as they are hoping it will be after 3-4 years of production) what its share price would be. For instance, all risks removed, favourable offtake agreements inked, etc would it be on a par with FMG?




Hey stevo, IMO IFFF SDL were in full production at 35MTpa right now even with a debt of 3.5bn which would assume they borrowed the full amount and did not issue any further shares, they would be valued conservatively (asuming a price earnings ratio of 5) at $3 per share.  

This assumes $100/tonne (after cost of production $25/t) giving them $3.5bn a year - 25% tax and royalties brings that down to say $2.5bn - $1bn debt and interest repayments leaves $1.5bn a year net income.  Multiply by 5 to get 7.5bn and divide by 2.7bn shares on issue - close to $3 anyway.

Still agree with nioka though - LOTS of water to flow under the bridge before that happens!!  I reiterate my price target of 50c by March (assuming finalisation of financing etc.) - obviously a sucker for punishment coz I know someone will remind me of this if it doesn't happen


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## First Timer (11 October 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Hey stevo, IMO IFFF SDL were in full production at 35MTpa right now even with a debt of 3.5bn which would assume they borrowed the full amount and did not issue any further shares, they would be valued conservatively (asuming a price earnings ratio of 5) at $3 per share.
> 
> This assumes $100/tonne (after cost of production $25/t) giving them $3.5bn a year - 25% tax and royalties brings that down to say $2.5bn - $1bn debt and interest repayments leaves $1.5bn a year net income.  Multiply by 5 to get 7.5bn and divide by 2.7bn shares on issue - close to $3 anyway.
> 
> Still agree with nioka though - LOTS of water to flow under the bridge before that happens!!  I reiterate my price target of 50c by March (assuming finalisation of financing etc.) - obviously a sucker for punishment coz I know someone will remind me of this if it doesn't happen




Would you say this would be a mid to long term investment? Having shares in SDL myself just want to gauge what others think?


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## jonojpsg (11 October 2010)

First Timer said:


> Would you say this would be a mid to long term investment? Having shares in SDL myself just want to gauge what others think?




Could be whatever you want it to be...if you bought at 17c a few weeks back and they go to 34c next week you can double your money in a couple of months and move on to something else.  Alternatively, you can wait for another 6-12 months and they might double again?  It's up to you

Personally, I'm in for as much as I can get until financing is finalised and construction starts then I'm out...I reckon there's a good possibility that laying 400km of rail through the deepest African jungle might just pose some interesting challenges


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## thestevo888 (12 October 2010)

Thanks Jono - that's exactly what I wanted to know. A lot of risks, I know, but I still think this could be an impressive success story this time in 3-4 years.
Bring on the next round of announcements!


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## tucks (14 October 2010)

up 2.5cents this morning on large volumes....announcement imminent or large Funds buying back??


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## Surly (14 October 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Could be whatever you want it to be...if you bought at 17c a few weeks back and they go to 34c next week you can double your money in a couple of months and move on to something else.  Alternatively, you can wait for another 6-12 months and they might double again?  It's up to you
> 
> Personally, I'm in for as much as I can get until financing is finalised and construction starts then I'm out...I reckon there's a good possibility that laying 400km of rail through the deepest African jungle might just pose some interesting challenges




Or you could of bought three years ago at 80 cents and have almost got back to half of where you started. Who really knows!

cheers
Surly


----------



## talktome (18 October 2010)

A great read about our Chairman.


talktome


Source: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...sundances-rescue/story-e6frg8zx-1225939880308


RESOURCES industry stalwart George Jones' rise to the top of the corporate ladder isn't your typical mining fairytale.

He grew up in an orphanage, moving between 12 different schools in the nine years of education he received, before entering the army, with the world of mining not even entering his thoughts.

But it has been the prospective industry that has given him his fortune and seen him take on the role as the "godfather of junior miners", a role he takes seriously because he lacked a mentor when he was young.

His passion for the sector, and especially the people, was never more evident than his rapid response to the Sundance Resources tragedy, which saw its entire board killed in a plane crash in Africa in June.

Jones has enormous guilt for the lives lost, having employed each of them when he was chairman of the company.

He had retired from the sector last year, after he was diagnosed with Meniere's Disease (an inner ear disorder), which saw him in rehabilitation for six months. But the responsibility the 66-year-old felt towards the company saw him step back into the chairman's role at the junior iron ore miner and also take on the same role at Gindalbie Metals, a role he had previously stepped down from.

"I was phoned during the night (the plane was reported missing). They are all friends of mine and I appointed them and if it hadn't been for me stepping down, I would've been on that plane," Jones says.

Those killed included mining billionaire Ken Talbot, chief executive Don Lewis, company secretary John Carr-Gregg and directors Geoff Wedlock, John Jones and Craig Oliver. The group was visiting the junior's Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon, near Congo.

Jones said he was determined from the outset to help Sundance survive the tragedy, because he has memories of a plane crash in Western Australia's Goldfields region in 1980, where the entire board of a junior miner was killed and the company folded.

"There was no one prepared to step up and as a result creditors and banks wound the whole group up, everyone lost their jobs and projects shut down and it was a financial disaster," he recalls.

"That is still in my memory. I immediately thought to myself, we cannot let that happen (with Sundance)."

Jones says he was the logical person to step up and see the emerging miner through the tragedy, but he also felt a personal responsibility to resume his previous chairman's role.

"They were all friends of mine and it's not stuff you learn in the rule books -- you just experience how to go about it," he says.

"In that first four weeks, I had more sleepless nights than I had in my life, where I just didn't get to bed because I was trying to do stuff.

"With the families, that was tough. I knew a lot of them. One of the wives I've known since she was 10 years old. Talking to them through that and through the media, trying to ensure it was dealt with sympathetically was hard. I made the decision that every time I had a couple of hours to sit and think, I'd get melancholy, so the best way to deal with it was to keep going."

Since the plane crash, Jones has been back to Africa three times and says the team, new and old, has not refused to fly to the project. "Nobody has stepped back. It is an amazing example of Australian tenacity, stoicism and bravery," he says.

Knowing Jones' background, it's not hard to see where he gets his bravery from and he has pushed and challenged himself out of a difficult childhood to become the success he is today.

"I got off to a very slow start and then joined the Australian army for six years and served in Vietnam and did a trade as a bulldozer mechanic," Jones says.

"I found that wasn't what I thought my talents best suited, so I started studying while I was in the army and after I left that I joined the ANZ bank and finished a commerce degree and while at the bank worked in financing mining projects."

At the age of 36, Jones started on his next venture, leaving the bank and setting up his own business advising mining companies on how to deal with banks and then after 15 years in that role, he took his own advice and started investing in mining companies. "My modus operandi is to invest in companies and then get in and help them make it work," he says.

Jones is well known for his time as chairman at Portman Mining, which he was instrumental in driving from a junior explorer to a successful iron ore producer. He dramatically split with his board to reject an offer in 2005 from Cleveland-Cliffs, which won Portman for $677 million.

"I said no to Cliffs' offer because I had a firm view there would be a jump in iron ore prices," he says.

"They paid $677m (at $3.85 a share) and then three years later paid $21.50 for the remaining shares they didn't own. Cliffs paid nearly as much for the remaining 14 per cent as it did for the initial 80 per cent."

With his ability to read the China growth story and success at Portman, it is no surprise Jones is often sought for advice from aspiring iron ore miners and he is more than happy to help develop the sector. "I never had a mentor and always wished I had someone I could go and talk to," Jones says.

While he clearly has a passion for mining and enjoys the challenges it brings, his greatest passion is his family -- his wife, four daughters and nine grandchildren.

He is involved in charity work, with Parkerville Children and Youth Care, where he spent some time as a child and the Ear Science Institute, whose director operated on Jones for his ear disease.

"I grew up in Parkerville, so, the two charities, I have a strong affinity with both of them," he says.

"I believe Parkerville put me on the right track. Other members of my family have not been as successful as me."

Jones is hoping to take a small break and enjoy a cruise now that he has Sundance on track to become a producer, but don't expect this mining veteran to be bowing out again soon. "I enjoy what I do. The sector has been good to me financially but I do it each day because I enjoy it."


----------



## talktome (18 October 2010)

Below is a link to an experienced chartist, which I am not. 

Go there and look for at least three vids on his comments on SDL over the last 2 - 3 weeks.

talktome


http://www.youtube.com/user/haspete#p/u/5/-IShaTIxoBE


PS. The list of videos (Uploads) will be on the right. You may need to extend the list by clicking on `See All`.


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## kash (22 October 2010)

exciting part of the annual report on the ongoing drilling of mbarga.

So far this year, 21 diamond drill holes (predominantly PQ  diameter) have been drilled at the Mbarga Deposit as part of the 2010 exploration program to: 

A total of 1,415 metres has been drilled at Mbarga with selected core samples from these holes transported to Australia for metallurgical testing. 

Where drill core has been available, Field Niton XRF analysis from drilling on EP92 in the 2010 exploration program has *indicated the presence of significant intersections of high grade hematite* which are comparable to previous results from the Mbarga Deposit. 

Will be great to get an upgraded resource. Will keep the price strong.


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## talktome (5 November 2010)

Re: Latest announcement.

SDL now has a Chinese Investment Bank/Securities company, CITIC Secuities, on the case. What happened to Deutsche Bank?

I was under the belief that DB would be finalizing things.

Perhaps the SDL`s thoughts are that CITIC would be better dealing with SDL`s Chinese contacts?

Any thoughts?

talktome


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## bleach8 (5 November 2010)

talktome said:


> Re: Latest announcement.
> 
> SDL now has a Chinese Investment Bank/Securities company, CITIC Secuities, on the case. What happened to Deutsche Bank?
> 
> ...




SDL appointed a Chinese Government owned investment bank to negotiate financial deal with Chinese Government owned Banks and steel companies….Citic will maximize Chinese companies’ interests rather than SDL’s.
DB was appointed by the previous Board to maximize SDL’s interest. IMO, GJ really wants to get it done fast..so be aware for bigger dilution


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## LRG (10 November 2010)

SDL has been pretty stable and lower volumes for the last few weeks.

I notice today there seems to be something going on.

The ASX is flat - but SDL is up 1.5 cents to 33 cents an volume has exceeded 40 Million so far.

Perhaps an announcement - or news of financial situation is getting around - speculation that something is due. 

The timeline still says:

Nov - convention signing
Dec - finalise offtake contracts; secure project financing terms.

It is not too long to this target - hope they do deliver on it.
If so 33 cents will seem very cheap IMO.


----------



## jonojpsg (10 November 2010)

LRG said:


> SDL has been pretty stable and lower volumes for the last few weeks.
> 
> I notice today there seems to be something going on.
> 
> ...




Hey LRG,
I suggest if you look at the latest announcement that you'll see pretty strong indication that the finance/offtake stuff will most likely not happen until 1st qtr next year...all complete by March 2011...is the phrase I think was used.  I reckon that is paving the way for them to get a bit more time on the negotiations for the finance/offtake.

Still, am expecting the Convention to be complete by years end so they can at least hold that up as getting there


----------



## thestevo888 (10 November 2010)

bleach8 said:


> SDL appointed a Chinese Government owned investment bank to negotiate financial deal with Chinese Government owned Banks and steel companies….Citic will maximize Chinese companies’ interests rather than SDL’s.
> DB was appointed by the previous Board to maximize SDL’s interest. IMO, GJ really wants to get it done fast..so be aware for bigger dilution




Dilution? Last I heard a consolidation was well and truly on the cards- GJ as good as said so a few months ago...


----------



## jonojpsg (14 November 2010)

thestevo888 said:


> Dilution? Last I heard a consolidation was well and truly on the cards- GJ as good as said so a few months ago...




Doesn't mean there won't be dilution...just because there are only 270m shares instead of 2.7bn just means they only have to issue another 100m shares to raise $300m rather than 1bn shares...still the same dilutionary effect.  

Would definitely expect to see more shares issued, though hopefully the SP will move up a bit more yet before that happens, if they can put out a few more announcements such as Mbalam Convention, perhaps offtake deal?, BEFORE financing/share issues then we might see 50c by then which would halve the amount of dilution that we would have seen just a month or two  ago


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## snowking (19 November 2010)

Kind of been following this stock for a while, have it in a watchlist but havent had enough time to do my own research. 
But for all you holders out there, you may be interested to know that Southern Cross Equities have initiated coverage on the stock and there 12 month target price is 77 cents per share


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## mr. jeff (22 November 2010)

SDL put out an ann. in reply to ASX query, about speculation particularly from HC and a Turkish paper printing a misleading article which was then posted there. Also further speculation from AFR on the funding for development making progress....
Where there's smoke there's fire. Sometimes.


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## CarbonSteel (22 November 2010)

mr. jeff said:


> SDL put out an ann. in reply to ASX query, about speculation particularly from HC and a Turkish paper printing a misleading article which was then posted there. Also further speculation from AFR on the funding for development making progress....
> Where there's smoke there's fire. Sometimes.




Just who is AFR?
This is beginning to take shape. Have been in this stock from the 7.5 cent days but not ready to sell yet. Looking like there's a way to go, hopefully upwards!


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## thestevo888 (22 November 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Just who is AFR?




AFR= Australian Financial Review, I think...  Interesting thing about the announcement Sundance put out is that the sp remained steady for several hours afterwards... obviously many believe the fire/smoke correlation. Time will tell.


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## nioka (22 November 2010)

Where there is smoke there is fire. Big volume today and big volume after the announcemant too. Many are expecting that sort of announcement and it probably will come. The company must be in delicate negotiations and it is possible that there are some loose tongues. Foreign news reports are easily misinterpreted when translated and there could be some knowledge behind the report. One report had the following quote;

 "Sundance Resources of all executives to take a private plane crash inspection Mbalam, Mbalam project again variable."

"Private plane crash inspection"  Hard way to test for iron ore.


----------



## CarbonSteel (24 November 2010)

Interesting that in reply to the question from ASX, SDL explained that negotiations with prospective partners are in a "preliminary" phase, yet in quarterly reports and annual reports in recent months these negotiations were "advanced".


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## jonojpsg (24 November 2010)

CarbonSteel said:


> Interesting that in reply to the question from ASX, SDL explained that negotiations with prospective partners are in a "preliminary" phase, yet in quarterly reports and annual reports in recent months these negotiations were "advanced".




Noted that too Carbon!!  Perhaps they were just trying to ease off any perceived pressure on potential partners so there was no adverse effects on negotiations?


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## LRG (24 November 2010)

oh well it touched 38 c today and closed at 37 c - a new high for the last couple of years.  trend is your friend and trend is definitly north in the last 3 months.  high volumes still.

will we see 50 c + by years end as predicted a few month ago by lioness?

maybe, maybe more - who knows?

the momentum seems to be well and truly to the positive - i am very happy with the status, certainly compared with 12 months or 2 years ago. I bought SDL from 45 cents all the way down to 7 cents (as I have said before) my avg price was around 16 cents, so I spent many many months in the negative, now however I am finally in the black with IMO little prospect of the project and the share price falling back significantly or not proceeding.

the management seem to have the smarts to bring this venture to fruitin in 2011.

anyone attend the AGM today in Perth - Ithink it was today???


----------



## zmalecki (25 November 2010)

LRG said:


> Hello,
> There have been various calc's on this forum estimating the SP from $4.55 to $10 +.  Can anyone update the SP forecast based on the new data provided by SDL?
> At least we have some news




Hi guys.
It is niece to see old and new friends on SDL page.
Since forecast 4.55 was my, and already passed half a year since last one, pleases find corrected one.
Basically, end result is similar.
Please fell free to correct and factors and calculate it by your own.

How it looks now ??
1. Outstanding shares - no change 2.8 bln
2. $ is weaker (from 1.07 -> 1.02 USD/AUD (5% down)
3. price for iron ore stable 160USD/Dmtu FOB China

And how looks calculation now ?

let assume 30 MT @ 132.75 FOB (160$-27.25$ see http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ )
=3982.5 mln$ /year
Pre production 3.36 bln$ -> c.a. 672 mln$/year cc
- 672 mln$ year capital cost
- 590 mln$ operation (19.65$/T)
- 295 mln$ amortyzator
------------------------------
1575 mln$ yearly

 3982.5 mln$ (revenue)
-1545.0 mln$ (costs )
--------------------
 2525.5 mln$ EBIT

Now.
What might be a number of outstanding shares when starting production ??
As of today market capitalisation is 2.8 bln * 0.37 = 1.036 Bln AUD = c.a. 1.01 Bln USD

SDL Must have:
560 Mln USD Contingency
20% of outstanding shares to Camerun & Congo governments
X% of outstanding shares for someone who will organize financing
my qualifieg guess is that it might be round 500 Mln is shares (of course payied in cash)
    ( I saw similar deal in 2008)

Now what SDL need is good news from gvmt Cameroon related to convention & time.
This to things shall push price of SLD still higher.
let assume that by end of year / jenuara price will go to 0.5 AUD/share

At the end of a day SDL will issue from "sponsor" and Cameroon GVMT 
Sponsor 500 MLN/0.5 =     1.00 Bln shares
Cameroon gvmt       =     0.56 Bln shares
Contingency 560 Mln/0.5 = 1.12 Bln shares
-----------------------------------------
Total nwe shares        = 2.68 Bln Shares

In total we will have c.a. 5.5 Bln outstanding share

So 

2525 mln$ EBIT$

from other hand 5.5 bln outstanding shares and options.

But issuing shares SDL will receive money, so in consequence 
thay need to borrow not 3.36 Bln USD but rather 1 Bln less = 2,36 Bln USD

in thi case EBIT will be higher about 1 Blb / 5 years = 200 Mln yearly

So in consequence EBIT = 2525 + 200 = 2725 Mln$

EPS = 2725mln$/5,5bln shares = .495$ 
Taking to acount current price -> PE ratio = .37/0.495=0.75

let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
it leads us to :
TPIR (Theoretical Price Increase Ration) = 10 (target PE) / 0.75 (Current) = 13.33
So in theory target ptice = Current pricr * TPIR = .37 * 13.33 = 4.93 AUD

Please keep in mind that price is calculated taking into account repayment of 
costs of financing in first 5 years of production.

I'm still in.

And I even if lake of Mbarga in 2043 will be worth less than .15AUD/share
I will have my yacht on it . What about you guys ?? , CarbonS ?


----------



## nioka (25 November 2010)

Zmalecki,
             I like you method for calculating the share value. I have seen so many calculations done without taking into consideration the cost of financing the companies activities between now and the first sale proceeds. Those costs are still not clear in my mind. The costs of ports and rail facilities to SDL are not yet defined. These have to be paid for before any sales can be made. If these are owned and paid for 100% by SDL then there may be a high dilution factor to consider.

  I'm suggesting this may be higher than you allow. Maybe twice the amount that you have suggested. Maybe I am too conservative. The Chinese will want a stake in the company in return for financing. they are renouned for hard dealing in these circumstances.


----------



## zmalecki (25 November 2010)

nioka said:


> Zmalecki,
> The costs of ports and rail facilities to SDL are not yet defined. These have to be paid for before any sales can be made.
> in these circumstances.




Nioka,
This costs are included in my calculation.

3.36 Bln it is (SDL presentations)
Mine & Plant                US$   358m
Rail                            US$1,472m
Port                           US$   505m
Indirects                     US$   465m
Contingency                US$   560m
--------------------------------------------
TOTAL ESTIMATED CAPEX (PFS)3 US$3,360m

But I agree with you. Some factors we still do not know.
From other hand out of todays presentation we see that SDL is trying to gain time. It move some milestone from December 2010 to end of Q1 2011.

And finally it is better to calculate something than not


----------



## LRG (25 November 2010)

zmalecki said:


> Nioka,
> This costs are included in my calculation.
> 
> 3.36 Bln it is (SDL presentations)
> ...




So zmalecki

Whith your calcs it is not clear to me the timeframe when you believe the estimate of $4.93AUD will be achieved along the timeline

is it 2014? after or before?


----------



## Pythagerous (26 November 2010)

G'day All

I've just returned back to Sydney from Perth, and the main things that I took out of the AGM include:

- Mbalam convention will happen around or leading up to DFS

- The Board are quite intent on owning and controlling the railway.

- Board members haven't had a window of opportunity to buy shares and may not get one until a deal is done.

- Deutsche Bank are no longer advising SDL and haven't been for some months.

- GJ was confident that the Cameroon Government would take up a 10% stake of the project (not Sdl)

- The new CEO relinquished an attractive bonus package at his previous job to join SDL

- GJ stated that interest in the project was strong as was the global demand for iron ore. He was confident (as is RIO) that supply for Iron Ore won't catch up with demand until around 2018 if at all.

- GJ stated that if IO prices remain the same as today that it will be paid of in 12 months instead of 4 years

- GJ understood concerns in relation to consolidation and said that any consolidation would only happen during a major financial transaction being done.

- Any delays in the signing of the mbalam convention are not due nerves of the Cameroon Government but due to the amount of documentation that needs to be prepared and finalised.

- The DSO that Sdl has is very easy to access.

- There has been no drilling results as they have been focusing on defining indicated resources.

On top of the above, I came to the conclusion that the new CEO is the right man for the job and that the Australian Shareholders Association will never be satisfied after a member representing them questioned and disagreed with just about every proposed resolution put forward.


----------



## Axel (26 November 2010)

zmalecki said:


> Nioka,
> This costs are included in my calculation.
> 
> 3.36 Bln it is (SDL presentations)
> ...





Zmalecki, Hi new to this forum, been following SDL ...I was fascinated by your calulations... One question which I wanted you to clarify if possible...Is the $4.93 sp you've calculated based on dilution? That is, I've read SDL are going to reduce the number of shares on offer, eg say 1 for 10 shares held. So is the $4.93 based on the 1 or 10 shares? Currently, the sp is around 0.38, which would make the sp approximately $3.80 if number of shares held were reduced? Thanks


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2010)

zmalecki said:


> In total we will have c.a. 5.5 Bln outstanding share
> 
> 
> So in theory target ptice = Current pricr * TPIR = .37 * 13.33 = 4.93 AUD



I've really got no idea how you've come to 4.95 with all those calcs, so you've achieved your aim.

5.5b shares @ $4.93 = $27b MC or thereabouts.

That's when they're actually delivering the 40Mt isn't it?

FMG currently about $14b MC I think.....already producing about 40Mt, aiming for 150Mt. 

Something's amiss here 

Hmm


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## jonojpsg (29 November 2010)

kennas said:


> I've really got no idea how you've come to 4.95 with all those calcs, so you've achieved your aim.
> 
> 5.5b shares @ $4.93 = $27b MC or thereabouts.
> 
> ...




Essentially kennas it's just a simple assumption of PE of 10 based on earnings of $2.7bn, or $27bn MC.  When you look at the comparison with FMG it shows potentially that FMG is pretty seriously undervalued?  Surely FMG must be raking it it atm, costs of $50/t and price of $150/t giving them $4bn a year AND as you pointed out, looking at upping that to 150MT a year

Altho when you look at FMGs financials, their net profit last year was only $700m, so in reality SDL will probably end up well below the $2.7bn estimated by zmalecki.  Let's say more like $1bn a year (lower costs than FMG) then a PE of 10 would make their MC $10bn with 5.5bn shares gives a *price target of $1.80 by 2014 *which is more like it.

I'm happy to aim for $0.75 by mid nxt yr myself


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## jonojpsg (29 November 2010)

Pythagerous said:


> G'day All
> 
> I've just returned back to Sydney from Perth, and the main things that I took out of the AGM include:
> 
> ...




Thanks a lot pyth for your input, much appreciated  Definitely looks positive going forward!


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## polska (6 December 2010)

Good rise today, I got in @ 0.355 last week, an announcement is surely near, would be a nice little x-mas present if it hit 50c+ for us holders.


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## ocelot (9 December 2010)

well its broken the .40c mark alot of trades today. I have started to see alot more press about this project. I think the word is getting out again about this one. I doubt it will be .50c before Feb.


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## polska (9 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> well its broken the .40c mark alot of trades today. I have started to see alot more press about this project. I think the word is getting out again about this one. I doubt it will be .50c before Feb.




84 million trades, something is definitely brewing, i may be optimistic but my 50c by x-mas I believe could happen, we will see...


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## jonojpsg (9 December 2010)

polska said:


> 84 million trades, something is definitely brewing, i may be optimistic but my 50c by x-mas I believe could happen, we will see...




Yep, big volume like this almost always precedes anns!!  Looking forward to confirmation of the Mbalam Convention which will mean Cam Gov gets to tip in approx $100m for their 10% share.  Bargain for them really given the likely outcome of a project valued upwards of $5bn.  Here's hoping


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## polska (10 December 2010)

41's now, just need that ann. to get this one flying, hopefully a deal concerning the JV is well progressed


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## polska (13 December 2010)

0.43's bring on the 50c by x-mas! Let's hope for a good week fellow SDL holders!


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## adobee (13 December 2010)

SDL is looking really strong imo... 
have jumped on board, if it breaks through the 40 cent range it could be back to 2007 ~!


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## funklaroon (13 December 2010)

adobee said:


> SDL is looking really strong imo...
> have jumped on board, if it breaks through the 40 cent range it could be back to 2007 ~!




Don't you mean 50, I entered at 31, looking good. 50 by Christmas looks possible. I appreciate the insight of these forums.


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## ocelot (13 December 2010)

Why is everyone expecting .50c by Christmas is there something we haven't been told. Or is there real facts, so far there hasn't been any announcement.


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## polska (13 December 2010)

This is some speculation courtesy of 'Wiley' on another forum, I know still no cold hard facts and just rumour, but certainly puts a smile to face

From researching on the Net, I am almost sure that Wuhan Iron and Steel( which seems to be at least half the size of BHP) will be involved in a big way with SDL. WISCO officials have stated within the next 5 years, WISCO will be making AFRICA their support base for supply of minerals and they intended to play a big part in SDL.

...............“With an average annual production of 30 million tons, WISCO ranks seventh among steel makers in the world on a production scale. However, WISCO receives 80 percent of its iron ore from overseas and is facing a survival crisis caused by the spike in iron ore prices on the international market.”

“Zou Can, vice director of the department of iron ore and non-ferrous resources division of WISCO International Resources Development and Investment Company, subsidiary of the Chinese steel producer Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation (WISCO), revealed at the International Geology Conference held on 18 NOVEMBER, 2010.
Mr Zou said that WISCO would establish a coalition including financial sectors, infrastructure contractors, steelmaking plants and traders to propel the development of the Mbalam iron ore program.”................

From this week, my guess, is that investors, big and small will accumulate more shares because SDL is getting more interesting.
Within a short time, ( how soon?) we will know more about exactly what is going on, I believe. Both parties have gone to and from Perth and China a few times.

............Wed 8th Dec,2010 The Australian
Riversdale Mining Executives will meet potential partner Wuhan Iron and Steel this week over a $1 Billion coking coal ground and equity deal, despite mounting speculation Riversdale will be bid for by a big miner.................

RIV/WISCO Talks may have finished or still going. My bet is that WISCO will also meet SDL Board today or tomorrow. Will the talks end with signing the Partnership? Or maybe fine details to be worked out. I believe that and other news- offtake, resource results, port and rail report, will come soon alright.
SDL Office is less than 1 km away from Riversdale Office.


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## adobee (13 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> Why is everyone expecting .50c by Christmas is there something we haven't been told. Or is there real facts, so far there hasn't been any announcement.




I would suggest there is alot we havent been told...
but this is definetly heating up..


----------



## jonojpsg (13 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> Why is everyone expecting .50c by Christmas is there something we haven't been told. Or is there real facts, so far there hasn't been any announcement.




Hey ocelot 
There is a distinct possibility of news, although no certainty about which of the likely developments will come out, eg Mbalam conv, partnerships, etc.

Simply from the way the SP is tracking, with buy side stacking up and sellers drying up, the pressure is upwards and chartwise there is only resistance at 40c from way back in June 2008 which appears to be yielding to that pressure.  Above that, next resistance is mid 50s from the lopsided head and shoulders formed in mid 2007.  

So clear air until the 50s IMO...although I've seen SDL buy/sell look like this recently and watched it switch rapidly back to more sellers than buyers, so anything can happen


----------



## topsprog (13 December 2010)

I suspect that George Jones will be content to just sit back and let the SP rise - IMO he is very reluctant to give away more than 50% and at this rate may get away with considerably less. I don't think WISCO is the only potential player in this game. Potential major Fe Ore producer's at sub 20 dollars a tonne are very light on the ground. I have been in this from 8 cents and adding along the way. Maybe the only real spanner in the works would be a revolution in Cameroon and they seem to be a very stable government! I have less faith in the locals in Canberra.


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## Gecko (13 December 2010)

We can all speculate...... But there are, at this stage ,more buyers
than sellers......LOTS MORE. 

For now Iron Ore is the best game in town to be in and it will be as
long as everyone in China wants a fridge and a car.

The Bull ride of our lives is ABOUT to begin! Hold on!!!!


----------



## TabJockey (13 December 2010)

Gecko said:


> We can all speculate...... But there are, at this stage ,more buyers
> than sellers......LOTS MORE.
> 
> For now Iron Ore is the best game in town to be in and it will be as
> ...




Haha thats the most intense ramping first post ive seen in a while. I think that SDL is still undervalued, but not by a huge amount, pretty sure most people will be expecting a drop then a lull after this recent rally.


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## thestevo888 (14 December 2010)

TabJockey said:


> Haha thats the most intense ramping first post ive seen in a while. I think that SDL is still undervalued, but not by a huge amount, pretty sure most people will be expecting a drop then a lull after this recent rally.




I think that will definitely be the case, if it simply continues as a "newsless" rally- the Convention announcement, etc, could change that, though. It's all speculation at this stage - but we'll be in a different position by the end of march, I would think.


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## polska (15 December 2010)

thestevo888 said:


> I think that will definitely be the case, if it simply continues as a "newsless" rally- the Convention announcement, etc, could change that, though. It's all speculation at this stage - but we'll be in a different position by the end of march, I would think.




Some of the momentum has definitely been lost, but today's close at 0.45c was a good sign and I'm expecting a drop to 0.40c before an ann. is made, then it will rally like no tomorrow


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## zmalecki (16 December 2010)

kennas said:


> I've really got no idea how you've come to 4.95 with all those calcs, so you've achieved your aim.
> 
> 5.5b shares @ $4.93 = $27b MC or thereabouts.
> 
> ...




Hi Kennas,

1. FMG has $21b MC rather that $12b (3.1 bln outstending x 6.7 it is c.a. 21Bln
2. Thay produced in fiscal year 2010 38 MT (FY 2010 starts in JUN 2009 and the ore prices where much lower)
3. Cost on production in Africa will be much lower than in Australia
4. for FSC PE ratio is 35 ..... (ROR ca 3%, but no dividende...)

So look just for pattern.
1. Similar size of production 
2. Better market condition (ore price)
3. Lower costs

From other perspective just compare characteristics of deposits... 
And look into FSC financial report


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## zmalecki (16 December 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Essentially kennas it's just a simple assumption of PE of 10 based on earnings of $2.7bn, or $27bn MC.  When you look at the comparison with FMG it shows potentially that FMG is pretty seriously undervalued?  Surely FMG must be raking it it atm, costs of $50/t and price of $150/t giving them $4bn a year AND as you pointed out, looking at upping that to 150MT a year
> 
> Altho when you look at FMGs financials, their net profit last year was only $700m, so in reality SDL will probably end up well below the $2.7bn estimated by zmalecki.  Let's say more like $1bn a year (lower costs than FMG) then a PE of 10 would make their MC $10bn with 5.5bn shares gives a *price target of $1.80 by 2014 *which is more like it.
> 
> I'm happy to aim for $0.75 by mid nxt yr myself




Hi jonojpsg

The real true is not as simple. You made assumption that in price $150/MT FMG would do $4bln. 
Your assumption is really not correct. 
Please keep in mind that FR for 2010 covers period 2009.06 - 2010.06 and if you look into the iron ore market in this period http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html
than you will understood why is not like that.

Second you do not know what kind of contract FMG has (and why is looking for other markets...).
Of course we do not know how will Sundance act in area of contract e.t.c.
In consequence I think that real price will be closer to $5 than to $2.

And regarding undervaluation of FMG ... it was undergraduate , and market already discounted that (P/E ration 35 is rather high)

Regarding target time line I agree with you.


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## polska (21 December 2010)

closed at 0.485c today, highs of 0.495c, my 50c by x-mas wish is looking likely


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## ocelot (22 December 2010)

ok I was wrong we did get to .50c before xmas. THere must be something I don't know. I did read on another forum that RIO is "apparently" looking seriously into SDL. All rumors.


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## LRG (22 December 2010)

zmalecki said:


> Hi jonojpsg
> 
> The real true is not as simple. You made assumption that in price $150/MT FMG would do $4bln.
> Your assumption is really not correct.
> ...




Well we have broken the 50 c ceiling today.  I am with our swiss mate zmalecki.  The SDL share price should be in the vicinity of $5 by 2014 - unless there is a consolidation, then it  will be a derivative of the consol. or; unless SDL is taken over before?
I hope RIO do not buy out - because us share holders wont realise the full potential growth if that happens.

I am happy to wait to 2014 to get the massive capital gains.


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## nioka (22 December 2010)

Speculation regarding the future SP for SDL is just that, speculation. Until the program is fully funded it is only a guess as to what degree of dilution will be. There will be considerable dilution or considerable loans taken out. The question as to who will fund the infrastructure necessary is still not known. While the management appear to have control of the situation they are dealing with Chinese firms that will also be dealing hard for their own benefit.
 I see too many posts. both here and on other forums, that are calculating prices for their shares based on maximum production, current iron ore prices and the current number of shares in SDL.
I don't want to be "party pooper" as I do hold a fair number of SDL but I'll just say that I'm happy with the current SP and I do think there is still room for improvement.


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## zmalecki (23 December 2010)

nioka said:


> I do hold a fair number of SDL but I'll just say that I'm happy with the current SP and I do think there is still room for improvement.




Nioka, same about me. 
In addition I'm in SDL since 2008, so I remember going down and up, and prices round 8c and peoples writing that SDL is sh... 
For me price is excellent. 
But as I wrote it is better to calculate (technical analysis) that do nothing. And regarding dilution ..... I took it into account.
And finally I'm very happy that my assumption from November that SDL will be $0.5 by DEC/JAN become a true. 
Maybe other assumptions as well ...?. That would be great.
*What about having great party when it achieve $5 ??*


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## RaymondJ (23 December 2010)

nioka said:


> Speculation regarding the future SP for SDL is just that, speculation. Until the program is fully funded it is only a guess as to what degree of dilution will be. There will be considerable dilution or considerable loans taken out. The question as to who will fund the infrastructure necessary is still not known. While the management appear to have control of the situation they are dealing with Chinese firms that will also be dealing hard for their own benefit.
> I see too many posts. both here and on other forums, that are calculating prices for their shares based on maximum production, current iron ore prices and the current number of shares in SDL.
> I don't want to be "party pooper" as I do hold a fair number of SDL but I'll just say that I'm happy with the current SP and I do think there is still room for improvement.






Yes I think your correct about SDL being speculative at this point. But Ive read just about everything I can find on SDL and they seem to have a fairly experienced board of directors, they have or are doing a deal to construct the rail line and a Chinese coy is on board to build the port facilities which will probably be used by other resource coy's in the area. I think the Chinese may be very interested in this ore deposit. In anycase I have a parcel of SDL and its been steadily going up so lets hope nothing catastrophic happens. But I do agree with you it is still Speculative. Keep up the reality talk its good to see.


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## LRG (23 December 2010)

zmalecki said:


> Nioka, same about me.
> In addition I'm in SDL since 2008, so I remember going down and up, and prices round 8c and peoples writing that SDL is sh...
> For me price is excellent.
> But as I wrote it is better to calculate (technical analysis) that do nothing. And regarding dilution ..... I took it into account.
> ...




I'm in agreement - when it gets to $5, we can all meet somewhere in the world for a big celebration - Cameroon???


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## jonojpsg (23 December 2010)

LRG said:


> I'm in agreement - when it gets to $5, we can all meet somewhere in the world for a big celebration - Cameroon???




Was wondering how you were feeling about this one LRG  Is lioness feeling good too??  I think you two were heading for a cool mill when this cracked $1 weren't you?  Not quite at that level but am certainly a happy camper and looking forward to some announcements to reveal how well we'll do out of this over the next 3-5 years


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## lioness (23 December 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Was wondering how you were feeling about this one LRG  Is lioness feeling good too??  I think you two were heading for a cool mill when this cracked $1 weren't you?  Not quite at that level but am certainly a happy camper and looking forward to some announcements to reveal how well we'll do out of this over the next 3-5 years




Jono,

Let me just say that at $1, I will be retired permanently!

Merry xmas to all sundancers.


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## jonojpsg (23 December 2010)

lioness said:


> Jono,
> 
> Let me just say that at $1, I will be retired permanently!
> 
> Merry xmas to all sundancers.




Sweet!!  Gotta love it when a plan comes together


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## ocelot (24 December 2010)

Hi I am too happy with the shareprice just wondering what is really pushing it up. It has been a considerable spike. I'm curious what other ASX miners are in the same region?


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## LRG (24 December 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> Was wondering how you were feeling about this one LRG  Is lioness feeling good too??  I think you two were heading for a cool mill when this cracked $1 weren't you?  Not quite at that level but am certainly a happy camper and looking forward to some announcements to reveal how well we'll do out of this over the next 3-5 years




Yes, a few months ago at 15c I bought another large parcel via CFD's, so I am at that magic point a lot sooner than $1.  a very good xmas present - see what happens today on the last day of trade before the break?  The last 4 months has been fantastic for the Sundance SP!


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## LRG (24 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> Hi I am too happy with the shareprice just wondering what is really pushing it up. It has been a considerable spike. I'm curious what other ASX miners are in the same region?




IMO it is still undervalued.  It is finally in the press on an almost daily basis - even just if it is in top 5 volume or top 5 % gain.

People who are into the markets are well and truly aware of SDL now, whereas 6 months ago, it wasn't on the radar of such a large audience.  Only a few (relatively) like in this forum have been accumulating since 2007 - and if like me you have been on since then, it has been a rollercoaster ride and a half!  GFC, then the events of June this year - it has been challenging to keep the faith - but now finally and until 2014+ IMO it will keep heading NORTH.


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## tbailey (24 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> Hi I am too happy with the shareprice just wondering what is really pushing it up. It has been a considerable spike. I'm curious what other ASX miners are in the same region?




Check out EQX, well ahead of SDL


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## tbailey (24 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> Hi I am too happy with the shareprice just wondering what is really pushing it up. It has been a considerable spike. I'm curious what other ASX miners are in the same region?




EQX is also in ROC, has existing rail and deepwater port, may also benefit from SDL rail for Badondo project, SP may give indication of where SDL is heading


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## xenith69 (24 December 2010)

I got in wednesday and am way ahead already!
Just wish i didnt keep saying to myself,"wait till they hit 8 cents" That was when they were 
11 cents)


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## RaymondJ (24 December 2010)

xenith69 said:


> I got in wednesday and am way ahead already!
> Just wish i didnt keep saying to myself,"wait till they hit 8 cents" That was when they were
> 11 cents)



I just sold out at 58c and the stock is still on a roll but the run appears to be backing off a bit now at around 58.5c. You should read SDL's website about brokers and analysts pricing. It has been priced at between 60c to about 78c. Im probably wrong but its approaching 60c and meybee it will backoff somewhat now. Having said that Im waiting for it to back off so I can go in again and begin accumulating again. I think the stock is mostly being driven by the Camaroon project which sofar is looking ok, but there is a long way to go on that project. Live long and Prosper

UPDATE: At close of ASX SDL was 56.5c Im hoping it backs off a little more and Ill get in again. Good luck


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## mr. jeff (24 December 2010)

what an amazing run, this stock never even made you question your decision to enter. That doesn't happen very often. A real Christmas present. You would have to expect a normal reaction to this sudden surge (which coincidentally is accompanied by large volume) , but who knows what news is around the corner ? I broke a golden rule and sold part of my position today on the jump without a clear reason. I guess it's better to regret missing profits - that's greed - than losing more on hope.

Congratulations all holders who have just managed to see Christmas come to their SDL stock.

I would add to your comments Raymond that now I am also waiting for a re-entry - ideally on a nice solid break of a consolidation level at around 50c. That may be my Easter of Australia Day present. Fingers crossed.


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## xyzedarteerf (24 December 2010)

Very good christmas present for those still holding,I am up 140% no complaints here my only regret is not buying more at .10c.


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## justiceotp (24 December 2010)

copy of my post at SEA in reply to a comment about an error in the news article.

Yes it is referring to SDL by mistake and if you read the SDL announcements they got a boost in share price and a speeding ticket for it. Makes you wonder if SEA would have gone up further had they been buying SEA and not SDL in mistake.
SDL announcement below. someone screwed up big time.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2010122...2w2b3fpjb1.pdf


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## RaymondJ (24 December 2010)

mr. jeff said:


> what an amazing run, this stock never even made you question your decision to enter. That doesn't happen very often. A real Christmas present. You would have to expect a normal reaction to this sudden surge (which coincidentally is accompanied by large volume) , but who knows what news is around the corner ? I broke a golden rule and sold part of my position today on the jump without a clear reason. I guess it's better to regret missing profits - that's greed - than losing more on hope.
> 
> Congratulations all holders who have just managed to see Christmas come to their SDL stock.
> 
> I would add to your comments Raymond that now I am also waiting for a re-entry - ideally on a nice solid break of a consolidation level at around 50c. That may be my Easter of Australia Day present. Fingers crossed.





I think you did the right thing Mr Jeff sell into a rally because most rally's back off and its impossible to pick the top, yes greed is the big problem. The sp went up to 59c at one stage but backed off in the end to 56.5c I think. Probably corporate players positioning the funds before the xmas close. Anyway glad to see people prospering.


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## ocelot (25 December 2010)

justiceotp said:


> copy of my post at SEA in reply to a comment about an error in the news article.
> 
> Yes it is referring to SDL by mistake and if you read the SDL announcements they got a boost in share price and a speeding ticket for it. Makes you wonder if SEA would have gone up further had they been buying SEA and not SDL in mistake.
> SDL announcement below. someone screwed up big time.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2010122...2w2b3fpjb1.pdf




It was also advertised here with the Heading Sundance Soars it even has quoted SDL pricing instead of SEA.... 

http://www.theage.com.au/business/sundance-soars-on-oil-deal-20101224-196xt.html

I think people bought in by mistake.


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## Varsity Parade (28 December 2010)

I have held on to these shares for a couple of years now, looking like time to cash in, what will happen on reopen tommorow, on in the new year??


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## RaymondJ (29 December 2010)

ocelot said:


> It was alsoI advertised here with the Heading Sundance Soars it even has quoted SDL pricing instead of SEA....
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/business/sundance-soars-on-oil-deal-20101224-196xt.html
> 
> I think people bought in by mistake.




Yes I saw your post after I sold sdl at 0.58. Thanks for the heads up! I was watching the stock pretty closely when the rally occurred and there were some big players in there. So the question is are we going to be watching SEA and SDL to see what happens on open this morning? Could be very interesting!
tks.


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## adobee (29 December 2010)

RaymondJ said:


> Yes I saw your post after I sold sdl at 0.58. Thanks for the heads up! I was watching the stock pretty closely when the rally occurred and there were some big players in there. So the question is are we going to be watching SEA and SDL to see what happens on open this morning? Could be very interesting!
> tks.




Hahaha what a joke the media commentators are.. They have jack all knowledge of one company or the next.. 

I think you will find these articles had little impact on SDL.. it is heading upwards on its own.. Great news for SEA which is also quality but those throwing a couple of hundre thousand to a million at SDL would be vary aware of what & where SDL is and what news they are awaiting at the moment..


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## ocelot (4 January 2011)

An interview with George Jones from Sundance I am wondering if the interview is old as he mentions 1st quarter of next year to announce a paternership. Even thought its up 7% today.. 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/sundance-saviour-keeps-the-faith-in-honour-of-lost-board/story-e6frg9df-1225981245790


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## tbailey (5 January 2011)

DJ Newswires 
Global spot prices for iron ore are set to reach an all-time average high in 2011, beating the previous record set in 2008, during the last commodities boom, a global price provider said Tuesday. 

Market expectations are that the average annual spot market price this year will rise to $153 to $154 a metric ton of iron ore fines with 62% iron content, delivered to China, from $146.70 in 2010, said a London-based reference price supplier. The expected 2011 average will exceed the average of just below $150 a ton in 2008, according to Randall. While spot iron ore prices towered to their highest ever at more than $200 a ton in March 2008 during the commodities boom, the 2008 average was brought down by lower prices later that year after the global financial crisis hit. 

"The key factors for this year are higher steel output and steel prices," said Randall in an interview. "Steel production in China will be stronger for the next few months. Steelmakers in the rest of the world are still recovering from the crisis, they're not yet back to their 2007-8 levels. In the U.S. mills are now putting up their steel prices like crazy." 

According to the Brussels-based World Steel Association, global crude steel output rose 5.1% in Nov. to 114 million tons, from the year before, but was still below historical levels, indicating further output recovery is on the way. Global steel demand is expected to improve by 5% in 2011. 
Iron ore supply hasn't yet responded to higher demand levels, which could put upward pressure on iron ore prices, Randall said. 
"New iron production capacity will come on stream only at the end of 2011, in both Brazil and Australia," he said. 
In addition, India's continued ban on iron ore exports from Karnataka state, designed to preserve supplies for domestic steelmakers, has also pressured supplies,
according to the price provider. Brazil, Australia and India are the world's three biggest iron ore exporting nations. 

Spot iron prices rose 90 cents Tuesday to $171 a ton, making for a $6 increase in the past month, according to The Steel Index.


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## tbailey (5 January 2011)

More and more provinces in India are beginning to restrict iron ore exports for reallocation to domestic use.

This will add further pressure to iron ore prices, especially at a time when China is about to accelerate their demand for the mineral!

We will see more and more of this in 2011 as the international iron ore price rises!


Press Trust of India / Bhubaneswar January 04, 2011, 20:47 IST

OMC to reserve 70% iron, 80% chromite ore for local units

In a bid to ensure uninterrupted supply of raw materials to industry in the state, the Orissa government today asked Orissa Mining Corporation (OMC) to reserve 70 per cent of the iron ore and 80 per cent of the chromite ore excavated from its mines for local units.

This was decided at a high-level meeting chaired by State Finance Minister Prafulla Ghadai and attended by Steel and Mines Minister Raghunath Mohanty, besides other senior officials, including Chief Secretary B K Patnaik.

The meeting was held in the wake of certain industries expressing displeasure over the state government's inability to provide adequate raw materials to them, even as it exported the bulk of its mineral output to other states and abroad.

OMC, which has a total of 35 iron ore and chromite mines, will henceforth reserve 70 per cent of its iron ore lumps and 80 per cent of its chromite ore output for industries within the state, said Mohanty.

However, the state-owned company is still free to export 70 per cent of its output of iron ore fines to other states and even abroad, as the state's budding steel industry does not have the required technology for the use of the fines, Mohanty said.

Industrial units in the state -- mainly those producing sponge iron and cast iron -- recently met Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and said they would go out of operation unless the government came to their rescue.

A proposed ban on the export of iron ore in view of the growing requirement of the steel industry in the state was also discussed at the meeting. The state has only 5,074.945 million tonnes of iron ore, half of which can be mined, they said.

However, no decision could be taken on the proposed ban at the meeting, Mohanty told PTI, while adding that the state government has given priority to its policy of value addition.

Mohanty also said most of OMC's mines were either closed or suspended after it failed to garner statutory clearances from the Ministry of Environment and Forests.



http://www.business-standard.com/in...ron-80-chromite-ore-for-local-units/121081/on


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## RaymondJ (5 January 2011)

tbailey said:


> More and more provinces in India are beginning to restrict iron ore exports for reallocation to domestic use.
> 
> This will add further pressure to iron ore prices, especially at a time when China is about to accelerate their demand for the mineral!
> 
> ...




Thanks for the article I didnt see that one. This companies prospects just keep getting better. I bought some more today. Were you watching that run today, just breathtaking. 
Anyway thanks for the article keepem coming and good luck


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## RaymondJ (10 January 2011)

Im not sure on this but I think there are people attempting to short SDL often. What does anywone think?


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## thestevo888 (11 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Im not sure on this but I think there are people attempting to short SDL often. What does anywone think?




I'm not sure but gee it took a hammering today for no apparent reason... no news is not always good news, I suppose - a few words about the mbalam agreement or offtake partners, etc, would be most welcome... still, this sp will only be a memory once we hit the end of march (in my very uneducated newbie's opinion.)


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## RaymondJ (11 January 2011)

Have a look at this article from the Bloomberg news sight.
Its about Chin's need for iron ore and iron ore comming from Africa by ship!!

Enjoy

Bloomberg

Chinese Iron Ore Imports May Rise 47%, Kumba Says (Update2)
April 15, 2010, 11:53 AM EDT
 More From Businessweek
Rio Tinto Says China Took 70% of Its Iron Ore Exports in 2009 
Rio Tinto Offers to Buy Back $2.5 Billion of Notes 
China Restricts Imports by Iron Ore Traders, Credit Suisse Says 
India May Raise Iron Ore Export Tax to 20%, Secretary Says 
China to Further Regulate Iron Ore Trade, Association Says 
Story Tools
e-mail this story print this story 0diggsdiggadd to Business Exchange (Adds closing shares in final paragraph.)

By Carli Lourens

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese imports of iron ore by sea may rise 47 percent this year compared with 2008 levels as steel production increases and domestic output of the raw material falls, Johannesburg-based Kumba Iron Ore Ltd. said.

“There is strong demand in China, Japan and Korea,” Chief Executive Officer Chris Griffith said today at the Sishen mine in South Africa. That may counter weaker demand in the “next couple of quarters” in Europe, where consumers have built up stockpiles on expectations of rising iron ore prices, he said.

Production of ore in China, the world’s largest buyer of the steelmaking ingredient, may drop 5 percent this year from 2008, according to Kumba. Rio Tinto Group, the second-largest iron-ore exporter, said it’s boosting output of the material to take advantage of higher prices and increased Chinese demand, today forecasting an 8 percent gain in 2010 production.

Kumba, Africa’s largest iron ore producer, plans exports of about 47 million metric tons a year by 2013 and production of 70 million tons by 2019, from about 42 million tons in 2009, the company said in a presentation posted on parent company Anglo American Plc’s Web site. Unit costs may increase 15 percent in 2010 as wages and fuel prices rise, Griffith said.

Kumba rose 4.10 rand, or 1.1 percent, to 380 rand by the close of Johannesburg trading, valuing the company at 122.2 billion rand ($16.7 billion).

--Editors: Tony Barrett, John Deane


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## RaymondJ (12 January 2011)

I found this short article on a news sight from Credit Suisse Bank


Iron ore may reach US$ 250 a ton, says Credit Suisse 
Investment bank Credit Suisse released today a report forecasting that iron ore prices will rise an average 21% this year and may jump to a new record. From the average US$ 147 a ton in 2010, spot prices will likely average US$ 178 a ton this year, analysts at the bank wrote. They highlight that supply failures may happen, which could even make prices reach US$ 250 a ton in the second quarter of 2011. 

Prices might drop in the second half of the year as new mines and suppliers are likely to enter the market. A jump in iron ore prices this year will hurt steel producers already facing a surge in costs for coking coal as floods in Australia curb supplies. 


Publicado em: 7/1/2011 16:53:00


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## nioka (12 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> I found this short article on a news sight from Credit Suisse Bank
> 
> 
> Iron ore may reach US$ 250 a ton, says Credit Suisse




Not a lot of help for SDL. Probably the reverse. It allows those trading now to write down their plant and equipment and build up big reserves so that they will be able to undercut the late arrivals like SDL. Nothing like being in business during the boom times. If it wasn't for capital gains tax I'd swap my SDL for TTY who are getting spot prices for iron ore.


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## RaymondJ (13 January 2011)

nioka said:


> Not a lot of help for SDL. Probably the reverse. It allows those trading now to write down their plant and equipment and build up big reserves so that they will be able to undercut the late arrivals like SDL. Nothing like being in business during the boom times. If it wasn't for capital gains tax I'd swap my SDL for TTY who are getting spot prices for iron ore.




Well I had a look at the TTY chart and its going down so if you wait a bit longer you might get it at a good price. Unless somebody comes up with a substitute for iron ore and China collapses the prices should be good in 2012 which is hopefully when SDL will start digging for the ore. Theres been good interest in SDL the last couple of days! SEA seems to be building for a run as well after the work update on tuesday. 

Good luck Bye now


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## jonojpsg (13 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Well I had a look at the TTY chart and its going down so if you wait a bit longer you might get it at a good price. Unless somebody comes up with a substitute for iron ore and China collapses the prices should be good *in 2012 which is hopefully when SDL will start digging for the ore*. Theres been good interest in SDL the last couple of days! SEA seems to be building for a run as well after the work update on tuesday.
> 
> Good luck Bye now




Sorry Ray, there is NO chance of SDL mining ore in 2012!!  They first have to build a 400km railway through some of the deepest darkest jungle in Africa


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## nioka (13 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Well I had a look at the TTY chart and its going down so if you wait a bit longer you might get it at a good price. Unless somebody comes up with a substitute for iron ore and China collapses the prices should be good in 2012 which is hopefully when SDL will start digging for the ore. Theres been good interest in SDL the last couple of days! SEA seems to be building for a run as well after the work update on tuesday.
> 
> Good luck Bye now




Like all charts it is a record of the past. The past was full of bad deals, suspect management and near financial collapse. They have had huge debt burdens but a white knight came to the rescue. They will soon be out of debt through obtaining high spot prices and if those spot prices continue then there should be a good sized positive cash flow in the next few months. Chartists will soon be calling "breakout" on TTY.  

SDL are a long way off digging ore. There will be a deal of dilution one way or another funding SDL to production. Not that I have my SDL holding for sale but I am not as hopeful of massive returns as are some. (Particularly the overenthuastic HotCopper posters.)

All my opinion only. DYOR.


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## RaymondJ (14 January 2011)

Where did I get 2012 from Ive read all the info and news on this stock??
Thanks for the correction.
I like this site it has so many knowledgeable people visit. 
Thank you both for the correction I will continieu to hold SDL but for the long term huh.

P.S. Like you I am not a chartist Ive been through that stage. But I do like to look at how the share price has been performing plus I read all the news articles, comments, information and I study the balance sheets and try and get a feeling for the directors. Anyway good luck bye for now


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## RaymondJ (20 January 2011)

Lots of buyers trying to get in cheap  on SDL Today this is looking pretty good at the moment.


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## harbiden (21 January 2011)

It passed the $0.50 mark today and seemed to be continuing to fall with no news about it. Anyone has any prediction?


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## ocelot (21 January 2011)

There is a downward trend happening I can't explain it. However the stockmarket is generally flat at the moment. Thats the thing with small cap stocks very unpredictable.


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## RaymondJ (21 January 2011)

harbiden said:


> It passed the $0.50 mark today and seemed to be continuing to fall with no news about it. Anyone has any prediction?




Did you read the news article released to the ASX. Basically I think it was pretty much a rehash of the main presentation. If you want to profit from this stock you might have to hold it till sdl reaches another milestone in their negotiations for finance etc. Anyway Im still holding, their has been a lot of big interest in it in the last few days I saw one trade go through for 3,500,000 approx. Anyway apart from that I think people are targeting this stock for short selling but thats just my opinion. Ok thats all the news I have.
bye


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## harbiden (21 January 2011)

ocelot said:


> There is a downward trend happening I can't explain it. However the stockmarket is generally flat at the moment. Thats the thing with small cap stocks very unpredictable.




I guess there will be some good profit opportunities for some!


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## harbiden (21 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Did you read the news article released to the ASX. Basically I think it was pretty much a rehash of the main presentation. If you want to profit from this stock you might have to hold it till sdl reaches another milestone in their negotiations for finance etc. Anyway Im still holding, their has been a lot of big interest in it in the last few days I saw one trade go through for 3,500,000 approx. Anyway apart from that I think people are targeting this stock for short selling but thats just my opinion. Ok thats all the news I have.
> bye




Yes, you're right about the presentation and the short selling. A lot of people are using it as a trading stock.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (21 January 2011)

ocelot said:


> There is a downward trend happening I can't explain it. However the stockmarket is generally flat at the moment. Thats the thing with small cap stocks very unpredictable.



According to the ASX, 10% of all sales yesterday were "short". I'd love to see today's stats.


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## RaymondJ (21 January 2011)

harbiden said:


> Yes, you're right about the presentation and the short selling. A lot of people are using it as a trading stock.




Forgot to say that SDL website has an upgraded value by an anylist company of about 
77c and I think thats as it stands now, I could be wrong but check it out.


----------



## harbiden (21 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> Forgot to say that SDL website has an upgraded value by an anylist company of about
> 77c and I think thats as it stands now, I could be wrong but check it out.




Yes it says 77c in Nov 10. It seems to have a resistance point at 48c today and if does not break that there could be an upside next week which confirms buy low sell high, sounds easy doesn't it?


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## RaymondJ (21 January 2011)

harbiden said:


> Yes it says 77c in Nov 10. It seems to have a resistance point at 48c today and if does not break that there could be an upside next week which confirms buy low sell high, sounds easy doesn't it?



It is behaving very irratically but most mining and energy did today on news of China having to reign in its economy, this seems to have pannicked the market, I dont know why because China is set to ramp up its ore importing after the China luna new year in Febuary and commodity prices are expected to rise throughout the second half of the year. If you watch the market depth on this stock the other day there was nearly 3 times as many buyers as sellers and yet the sp went down? Nothing has changed for this stock the company is still on track and infact ahead of schedule. Thats the market though but Im not selling out cheap on this one their is too much interest in this stock from some big movers.
Have faith but make your own decisions bye for now


----------



## Crom (22 January 2011)

I agree with recent posts and just a few of my on ideas to share.

I bought in around .13 cents with a strong belief in the SDL story AND, I still like the story.  However, the infrastructure demands (rail, port) are significant and will inevitably require a spp.

Not only will it dilute share value but also the target that you refer to.  Indeed I believe the writer of that review alluded to that also.

The sp fall from .665 to .485 has been harsh.  In this regard it is hard to see it as profit taking.  I smell a SPP in the air!

My approach, and I note there is a thread on long term holding vs trading is to simply do both!  I will hold my original parcel as it is in my SMSF so no interest loan to be concerned with (share return vs interest being paid for holding).  I will also be buying more for the purpose of trading.

I agree that there is good support around the current price level, and the MDA I have applied reflecting support levels is almost approached.

Because this is a great stock I am happy to short term trade as well as hold my original parcel. It is this type of stock that one can confidently do both, and make both short run and long run returns.

Others I am doing this same approach succesfully on are GXY, ALD, ADU and BHP.

I also have other stocks just for the purpose of trading where I have no intent on holding. But these good story stocks with upside, I believe provide fuller benefits from both having a hold parcel, and a trading parcel.

Cheers to you all


----------



## Happy (22 January 2011)

Crom said:


> ...
> 
> I agree that there is good support around the current price level, and the MDA I have applied reflecting support levels is almost approached.
> 
> ...




I see suport at $0.40 and GOOD support at $0.30

Happy to see price doing something else, but re-entry before $0.58 carries higher risk.


----------



## Market Depth (22 January 2011)

Sellers are well and truly in control of SDL ATM, it's failed at critical support at 0.51, I too see this stock heading much lower. Buyers are just getting run over ATM. It would need to find a level of consolidation, at what price? I don't know, I'll just wait to see what happens. Keep your eyes open for a 'Suckers Rally'.


----------



## jonojpsg (23 January 2011)

Definitely on the way down - and stupidly I bought back in high 50s after riding from mid 20s up to low 60s  Should have seen it coming really, timeline (as re-released the other day) clearly laid the ground for a delayed news release until end 1st qtr so realistically the rally up to 60s was not sustainable without news and hence was always going to retrace back to decent support.

Chartwise there looks to be some support mid 40s from week prior to Christmas, with a couple of down days that hit 43.5 and held, but agree with happy that 40 then 30 are key levels to watch.  I'm hoping to see some buying support around the mid 40s (obviously!) so will be watching closely this week


----------



## sammy84 (23 January 2011)

Chart below looks pretty bullish. It's actually the invert of the SDL chart. SDL looking good to short sell for the moment.


----------



## RaymondJ (28 January 2011)

Crom said:


> I agree with recent posts and just a few of my on ideas to share.
> 
> I bought in around .13 cents with a strong belief in the SDL story AND, I still like the story.  However, the infrastructure demands (rail, port) are significant and will inevitably require a spp.
> 
> ...




By the end of this current Quarter their should be news about the DFS and the Government final approvals, and we will be a lot closer to actual production. This stock will improve when agreements and financing consolidate, it will be a great stock in the future so I too am hanging onto my original parcel and Im sure unless something very unforseen happens this stock will increase significantly by the end of the second Q.

Cheers hang in there


----------



## RP_Automotive (28 January 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> By the end of this current Quarter their should be news about the DFS and the Government final approvals, and we will be a lot closer to actual production. This stock will improve when agreements and financing consolidate, it will be a great stock in the future so I too am hanging onto my original parcel and Im sure unless something very unforseen happens this stock will increase significantly by the end of the second Q.
> 
> Cheers hang in there




We were going to hear all about that at the end of the last qtr too. Oh and the qtr before that. I fully understand it takes time, but the bait has been there for a long time...where are the bites. MOU's for construction companies are easy, ofcourse they're willing to get on board. Getting the finance (I know I'm stating the obvious) is the hrad part....and there's nothing there yet.

I've been invested in SDL since 2007/8, i still have faith that it will all happen, but I sold alot of my holding last week and decided to persue other stocks. Every time I have doubted SDL...the next week they have brought out an emcouraging announcement. For me though, I have invested enough time and money, and missed enough on other stocks. I think SDL has matured enough to be a stock that you can just put some money into and not loose. Weather they get bought out, get finance or whatever...one things for sure, their resources & the project is worth alot more than their market capital.


----------



## RaymondJ (29 January 2011)

RP_Automotive said:


> We were going to hear all about that at the end of the last qtr too. Oh and the qtr before that. I fully understand it takes time, but the bait has been there for a long time...where are the bites. MOU's for construction companies are easy, ofcourse they're willing to get on board. Getting the finance (I know I'm stating the obvious) is the hrad part....and there's nothing there yet.
> 
> I've been invested in SDL since 2007/8, i still have faith that it will all happen, but I sold alot of my holding last week and decided to persue other stocks. Every time I have doubted SDL...the next week they have brought out an emcouraging announcement. For me though, I have invested enough time and money, and missed enough on other stocks. I think SDL has matured enough to be a stock that you can just put some money into and not loose. Weather they get bought out, get finance or whatever...one things for sure, their resources & the project is worth alot more than their market capital.




I feel your frustration but ive only been in it for a couple of months meybee a likely outcome is a takeover by a Chinese coy see this article below from Bloombergs the article is too long so I didnt include everything but youll get the idea. Cheers


An Iron Ore Rush Above the Arctic Circle
With steel demand growing and iron ore fields in Brazil and Australia locked up by mining's Big Three, Canada is the next resource battleground By Natalie Doss 

linkedin connections Baffin Island in Canada's frigid Nunavut territory is about as far off the grid as most people can imagine. Subzero temperatures, ice-blocked sea lanes, and a lack of conventional infrastructure make this spot more than 300 miles above the Arctic Circle among the planet's most inhospitable places to do business. That hasn't stopped international mining companies from fighting over the remote turf. The attraction: huge iron ore deposits underneath a barren landscape””a reminder of just how far global mining companies will go to secure new reserves. 

After oil, almost nothing is as central to the operation of a modern economy as steel. Everything from appliances to automobiles to skyscrapers depend on the stuff. That has made iron ore, steel's main component, a hot commodity amid the current global resources boom, especially for fast-growing emerging economies. 

*The price of iron ore has more than doubled in the past two years amid surging Chinese steel production. Most ore exports come from Brazil and Australia, where the world's three biggest mining companies, Brazil's Vale (VALE) and Australia's Rio Tinto Group (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP), dominate. That's left other mining companies, steel producers, and big users such as China to fight over the few remaining big iron fields, including desolate Baffin Island. * 


```
[CODE][CODE][CODE][CODE][CODE]
```
[/CODE][/CODE][/CODE][/CODE][/CODE]


Most of the stocks from the last run have been sold now so it might stabalise for a while this stock has been the subject of a lot of down selling and profit taking recently


----------



## jonojpsg (31 January 2011)

Well well, NOW we have something interesting!!  News today, although not officially confirmed by SDL yet, that POSCO are in on the deal. 

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2931673

Volume is high this morning and looks like this may spark the run back into the 50s again.

The way the articles are written, it seems like a pretty safe bet that an agreement has been made, although you can't always trust the press I guess

If it has, and it is confirmed by SDL shortly, I'll be happy


----------



## RaymondJ (31 January 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Well well, NOW we have something interesting!!  News today, although not officially confirmed by SDL yet, that POSCO are in on the deal.
> 
> http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2931673
> 
> ...



Well done on the research. I think its inevetible that a larger coy is going to get involved in this area and I can only hope that they see SDL's idea as the best option. The SP is surging again and all the buyers at around 43c will probably sell out from about 49c through to 52c and then try and short sell it back down as has been happening. But the more positive news the better for this stock.

CHEERS

Just found this article on SDL's website this is only part of it but its the latest on their website


Sundance Resources Ltd.
It’s all about the infrastructure
BUY
SDL - ASX A$0.56
Target A$0.75
WHAT'S CHANGED New Old Rating Buy NA
Target A$0.75 NA
NAV/share (A$) 0.74 NA
SHARE DATA
Shares - m (basic/fully diluted) 2,710.0m/2,506.5m
52-week high/low A$0.67/A$0.11
Free float 83%
3M average daily volume 45.6m
3M average daily value US$18.0m
Market capitalisation US$1,163m
Enterprise value US$1,110m
Dividend yield 0.0%
Total projected return 34%
SUMMARY METRICS
Key assets Mbarga, Cameroon
Nabeba, Congo
FY ending June 2010.0 2011E 2012E
GMP lump ore (US ¢/LTU) 139 229 282
● Sundance Resources is planning to develop the Mbalam
haematite-itabirite project in Cameroon and Republic of Congo.
The project is made up of the Mbarga deposit in Cameroon which
boasts a 2.3Bt itabirite resource at 38% iron and a 215Mt DSO
resource at 60% iron, and the Nabeba deposit in ROC where the
company has defined a 200Mt DSO resource at 63% iron.


----------



## donteatme (31 January 2011)

Was going to buy this morning, then thought it could still go down, went to work, then this. Ah well lol, time to wait till the next dip.


----------



## Iggy_Pop (31 January 2011)

If the rumours about POSCOE come good, you might be waiting for a long time. 

Wish you luck


----------



## RaymondJ (31 January 2011)

Iggy_Pop said:


> If the rumours about POSCOE come good, you might be waiting for a long time.
> 
> Wish you luck




Check SDL's website they say there is no deal with anybody yet, but they do say that POSCO was incountry recently and they held meetings with them and several others. So it seems that the board is actually progressing the deals which is good confirmation that they exist.
It is encouaging to see this resource play being publicised in other countries.

Check out this news aryticle from SKY News
CHEERS

Sundance shares up on POSCO talks
Updated: 19:50, Monday January 31, 2011

Shares in Sundance Resources Ltd rose after the iron ore explorer confirmed reports it had held preliminary talks with Korean steelmaker POSCO about joint venturing in its Mbalam project in West Africa.

Sundance shares closed up four cents, or 8.79 per cent, at 49.5 cents. This was after almost 95 million shares in the company worth $45.5 million changed hands, making it the most traded stock by volume on Monday.

'As previously advised to the market, Sundance has held numerous discussions with a wide variety of international steel mills and potential strategic partners to pursue the Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon and Congo,' Sundance said in a statement.

'Those discussions have involved, amongst others, POSCO however as yet no formal agreements have been entered into with any of the various parties currently undertaking due diligence on the Mbalam iron ore project.'

Sundance said it recently met senior POSCO personnel as part of that company's visit to Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia, which was sponsored by the Korean Ambassador for Energy and Resources.

Broker GMP Securities last week said there was considerable potential for Sundance to find a strategic partner to invest in infrastructure needed for the multi-billion-dollar project.

Sundance last year signed memorandums of understanding with two Chinese companies to conduct feasibility studies on port and rail infrastructure.

China's Citic Securities is helping Sundance to secure debt and equity funding.

GMP Securities has put a target price on Sundance shares of 75 cents.
Sorry if Im manopolising this thread but I thought this SKY NEWS would be of interest


----------



## RaymondJ (1 February 2011)

Heres some interesting news

Posco gets O.K. for $12B India plant 

February 01, 2011 
Posco, the world’s third-largest steelmaker, received approval for its $12 billion factory complex in India, paving the way for the nation’s single-biggest foreign investment six years after it was proposed. 

The Korean company’s 12 million metric ton mill, to be built in three phases in the eastern state of Orissa, was cleared with 28 additional conditions including limits on the use of water, the Environment Ministry said on its Web site. Approvals were also given to divert 1,253 hectares of forest land for the project and a captive port.


----------



## talktome (1 February 2011)

RaymondJ,

_"Sorry if Im manopolising this thread but I thought this SKY NEWS would be of interest"_

Quality posts never need an apology. They`re welcomed any day of the week mate.

Thanks for your input,

talktome


----------



## jonojpsg (1 February 2011)

The POSCO news is more interesting when you read the section that says



> *Posco agreed to jointly develop an iron ore mine in Cameroon, the Pohang, Korea-based company said yesterday.* The Mbalam iron ore project is expected to produce about 35 million metric tons (38 million tons) of the steelmaking ingredient a year starting in 2014, it said.




This makes it appear to be a company statement - in which case we should hear something definitive pretty soon if POSCO are making statements like this to the press!!


----------



## xyzedarteerf (2 February 2011)

RP_Automotive said:


> I've been invested in SDL since 2007/8, i still have faith that it will all happen, but I sold alot of my holding last week and decided to persue other stocks. Every time I have doubted SDL...the next week they have brought out an emcouraging announcement. For me though, I have invested enough time and money, and missed enough on other stocks. I think SDL has matured enough to be a stock that you can just put some money into and not loose. Weather they get bought out, get finance or whatever...one things for sure, their resources & the project is worth alot more than their market capital.




Same here finally got out few weeks ago all holdings some since 2008, it will be intersting to see where this stock will go this year. I may enter again if it drops below 0.350 but will wait where she's heading in 3 months time.


----------



## RaymondJ (3 February 2011)

xyzedarteerf said:


> Same here finally got out few weeks ago all holdings some since 2008, it will be intersting to see where this stock will go this year. I may enter again if it drops below 0.350 but will wait where she's heading in 3 months time.




When the finance deal is announced this SP will be a lot higher than the 53 it is curently trading at, but I understand your attitude its not easy investing in a company that is starting at the ground level but can be very profitable! That news was first seen in Korea where POSCO has now been granted approval to build a new steel plant.

CHEERS


----------



## RaymondJ (14 February 2011)

It seems the market liked the latest release to the ASX. Its not even on the SDL website yet so it hit pretty late in the trading day, but the response was a bit of a kick along. I think there are a lot of buyers waiting for good news on this stock and its probably comming at the end of next month, yea yea ive heard all the delay stories but you have to expect that with a project this size. Besides that they lost the whole coy board or most of it anyway in the aircrash. Good times ahead im thinking.

CHEERS


----------



## RaymondJ (15 February 2011)

Looks like the short sellers are in to SDL in force today, I think they want to buy at 50.5c


----------



## RaymondJ (18 February 2011)

I feel very lonely on this thread, anyway there is some very good buying pressure appearing for SDL today hopefully we will see a close above 0.52 currently at 0.515 as at 
1415 ASX time. I cant find any current news to spur this there must be something out there.

Cheers


----------



## mr. jeff (18 February 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> I feel very lonely on this thread, anyway there is some very good buying pressure appearing for SDL today hopefully we will see a close above 0.52 currently at 0.515 as at
> 1415 ASX time. I cant find any current news to spur this there must be something out there.
> 
> Cheers




Well the wait is on to see what their next move is - they have the resource but seem to be having trouble behind the scenes with negotiations and some investors who keep on buying the "contract with POSCO/Chinese/everyone else practically signed up" rumours are probably getting sick of the rise and fall and waiting for some serious concrete to enter on.

There would be a lot of people watching this thread but there is no point posting "should be news any day now....." or "price action is staying in consolidation area but about to double in the next x years..." whilst SDL is quiet.

Now watch on Monday they will make an ann. fingers crossed as they have an impressive resource to dig.


----------



## dumadiscount (18 February 2011)

too true... just gotta be patient with SDL.  

i've held this bad boy since 2008... but mainly buying over the last 6-8 months. 

waiting waiting waiting..


----------



## jonojpsg (19 February 2011)

Was pretty clear from the interview with MD that only news due before the end of this qtr was update of Nabeba resource - then DFS due by end of qtr.  No expectation of financing or Mbalam convention now IMO until 2nd qtr - have sold down until then although if Nabeba upgrade is significant, eg another 100-200+ MT then this will probably boost SP at least short term.


----------



## LRG (20 February 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Was pretty clear from the interview with MD that only news due before the end of this qtr was update of Nabeba resource - then DFS due by end of qtr.  No expectation of financing or Mbalam convention now IMO until 2nd qtr - have sold down until then although if Nabeba upgrade is significant, eg another 100-200+ MT then this will probably boost SP at least short term.




Their was a story in the AFR on friday, saying that the koreans are still going around saying its a done deal, while at the same time George jones is currently in China still in negotiations.  So the POSCO people may think they are in but it may also get the chinrse to make a decision soon or lose out.

I thought the article was suggesting the funding partner would be closed up by end of March - not 2nd QTR???

I am thinking that the window to get in around 50c is closing quicly and the SP will go to new high levels within 6 weeks.  Looking forward to the next ride up soon!


----------



## jonojpsg (20 February 2011)

LRG said:


> Their was a story in the AFR on friday, saying that the koreans are still going around saying its a done deal, while at the same time George jones is currently in China still in negotiations.  So the POSCO people may think they are in but it may also get the chinrse to make a decision soon or lose out.
> 
> I thought the article was suggesting the funding partner would be closed up by end of March - not 2nd QTR???
> 
> I am thinking that the window to get in around 50c is closing quicly and the SP will go to new high levels within 6 weeks.  Looking forward to the next ride up soon!




If you listen to the boardroom radio interview with Giulio Casello, he pretty clearly states that the only news due this qtr is Nabeba upgrade then DFS due at qtr end.  Time will tell of course - if POSCO are going to keep trumpeting on about being in the deal then as you say, the Chinese will probably make a move sooner rather than later to tie up the output.  In fact, I thought it was interesting/unlikely that POSCO would get in ahead of the Chinese given that Citic are handling negotiations, and rail/port are both going to Chinese infrastructure providers??


----------



## LRG (20 February 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> If you listen to the boardroom radio interview with Giulio Casello, he pretty clearly states that the only news due this qtr is Nabeba upgrade then DFS due at qtr end.  Time will tell of course - if POSCO are going to keep trumpeting on about being in the deal then as you say, the Chinese will probably make a move sooner rather than later to tie up the output.  In fact, I thought it was interesting/unlikely that POSCO would get in ahead of the Chinese given that Citic are handling negotiations, and rail/port are both going to Chinese infrastructure providers??




Yeh Jono I agree - was thinking the same thing.  With the chinesse signed up to likely do infrastructure etc it is hard to imagine Posco getting ahead of the chinese as the funding / equity partners / end user of the iron ore dug out of the ground.

I think there may be a game of chess going on with the share holders the ultimate winners (along with the chinese who will get the raw material for their steelworks). WIn / WIN.  Still, i wouldn;t be suprised if the news comes out within the next 6 weeks.


----------



## RaymondJ (21 February 2011)

LRG said:


> Their was a story in the AFR on friday, saying that the koreans are still going around saying its a done deal, while at the same time George jones is currently in China still in negotiations.  So the POSCO people may think they are in but it may also get the chinrse to make a decision soon or lose out.
> 
> I thought the article was suggesting the funding partner would be closed up by end of March - not 2nd QTR???
> 
> I am thinking that the window to get in around 50c is closing quicly and the SP will go to new high levels within 6 weeks.  Looking forward to the next ride up soon!




I guess it depends on what you mean by 2nd Quarter. From Jul 2010 to Jul 2011 the first Q is Jul thru Sept
the 2nd is Oct thru Dec and 3rd Jan thru March. Thats if you use the Financial Calender anyway Im sure you understand that sorry if Im stating the obvious.

Oh god I hope it gets out of this range its in now in the positive, its been a long time!
The director of SDL said in an interview that the dfs and financial arangements will be conclud ed by the end of March 2011, thats what I remember anyway.
Meybee there will be a joint venture between the Chinese and Koreans. Hard to get your head around I know but just a thought, they could call the venture CHIKO or meybee ChikoSEA, any ideas on the name?

CHEERS 
Iam holding a considerable number of SDL


----------



## mel (11 March 2011)

Long time reader, first time poster, waiting patiently for some news, anyone else see article on Wuhan Iron and Steel - BEIJING, March 7 (Reuters) - Wuhan Steel (600005.SS: Quote), China's third-biggest mill, plans to produce steel overseas, its president and group chairman Deng Qilin said on Monday.

"We are in talks with a company on plans of setting up a steel plant overseas but can't disclose the company's name," Deng told reporters on the sidelines of China's annual parliament session.

He said the company had not yet signed a contract, but was working on cooperation. (Reporting by Ruby Lian and Tom Miles; Editing by Ken Wills) 

Instantly I thought of SDL, anyone else think the same.


----------



## skc (11 March 2011)

mel said:


> Long time reader, first time poster, waiting patiently for some news, anyone else see article on Wuhan Iron and Steel - BEIJING, March 7 (Reuters) - Wuhan Steel (600005.SS: Quote), China's third-biggest mill, plans to produce steel overseas, its president and group chairman Deng Qilin said on Monday.
> 
> "We are in talks with a company on plans of setting up a steel plant overseas but can't disclose the company's name," Deng told reporters on the sidelines of China's annual parliament session.
> 
> ...




Iron ore is dug up where it is found. Steel is made close to where they are consumed.

Where is SDL drilling again? Would you set up a steel plant there?


----------



## mel (12 March 2011)

I agree with what you are saying, I would be more than happy for Wuhan just to finance etc, I just thought maybe a one stop shop kind of scenario made sense (to me anyway) only been into this share investing for a year so iits all a learning curve for me. Will wait for the next announcement - resource upgrade.


----------



## Crom (12 March 2011)

What may relate more to SDL was the news as reported earlier this week in the Australian business section (compulsory morning reading), re China seeking to buy iron ore companies so it is not dependant on RIO, BHP and VALE.  Basically China is sick of the oligopoly and wants to be able to exert it's own influence on iron ore prices.

China wants to be able to supply all it's needs in 3-5 years, without having to rely on 'foreign monopolies'.

Cheers


----------



## RaymondJ (12 March 2011)

I have read several articles over the last couple of months about China looking to buy up resource companies and oil companies wherever they can find them.
I did read an article the other day about one of the big miners in Africa doing a deal with a Chinese coy for Iron Ore but it wasnt SDL I think it was RIO or Xtrata or meybee BHP. Ive just gone to search for it but I cant find it again, anyway there was no reference to SDL in the article or I would have posted it.
SDL faired pretty well in the last couple of days unlike some- did you see AUT it collapsed a long way down to about 2.69 I think and finished friday at 2.80 down from about 3.15 these are approx's only.

SDL is due to release the BFS this month. Ive seen some big buyers in the last couple of weeks- very encouraging but the bots have been into it and SEA anyway heres hoping we hear something this month.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (13 March 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> ...did you see AUT it collapsed a long way down to about 2.69 I think and finished friday at 2.80 down from about 3.15 these are approx's only.



AUT actually got down to $2.62. But a "collapse" or a buying opportunity? If you remember, SDL has been as high as 62c... so do the math on SDL. Two completely different companies though - so I'm not sure why you're trying to compare the two regarding share price? Oil v's Iron Ore = Apples v's Bananas

Why not compare how SDL has performed comparatively to OST (and it's an ASX100 company)? One mines Iron Ore while the other sells the result. If OST has dropped so much due to projected future sales, perhaps you should wonder what that's going to happen to SDL's share price. 

OR BSL (an ASX50 company). Both OST and BSL are down 20% over the past 15 trading days... not a good sign.


----------



## RaymondJ (13 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> AUT actually got down to $2.62. But a "collapse" or a buying opportunity? If you remember, SDL has been as high as 62c... so do the math on SDL. Two completely different companies though - so I'm not sure why you're trying to compare the two regarding share price? Oil v's Iron Ore = Apples v's Bananas
> 
> Why not compare how SDL has performed comparatively to OST (and it's an ASX100 company)? One mines Iron Ore while the other sells the result. If OST has dropped so much due to projected future sales, perhaps you should wonder what that's going to happen to SDL's share price.
> 
> OR BSL (an ASX50 company). Both OST and BSL are down 20% over the past 15 trading days... not a good sign.




Merly trying to say that SDL did pretty well compared to some other very good companies thats all friend thats all.
The SDL rally above 60c was never sustainable and it was due in most part to a mistake printed in the Australian newspaper and since retracted, they printed SDL when it should have been SEA! The reason this stock compared to OST or BSL hasnt gone down that far is probably because its not producing IRON ORE at the moment it has some other mining activities as Im sure youre aware of. And a significant portion of its current SP is due in most part to that, although I could be wrong about all this- please let me know!

P.S If I wasnt fully committed elsewhere I would have bought as much of AUT as I possibly could have but alas you are right I missed a good buying oppurtunity there
bye now


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## LRG (15 March 2011)

What a fantastic day for us SDL holders - NOT!

What is going on, collapsed this afternoon - low of 35.5 close of 38 cents.

Has been holding around 50c for quite a while.

SDL needs to release some good news.

a lot of people have dropped heaps of cash today obviously with stop losses going off on SDL from 45c down and pnic sell off / margin calls I suspect.

Will it go lower in the next few days??


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## TabJockey (15 March 2011)

LRG said:


> What a fantastic day for us SDL holders - NOT!
> 
> What is going on, collapsed this afternoon - low of 35.5 close of 38 cents.
> 
> ...




Errr is this the only stock you hold or something? the Nikkei is down 18% in 2 days man, have a look around at the other small and mid cap resources stocks at how much they fell friday and today.

Wake up, if your not attuned to the market you should just have your money in some sort of fund and check it every 6 months.


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## LRG (15 March 2011)

TabJockey said:


> Errr is this the only stock you hold or something? the Nikkei is down 18% in 2 days man, have a look around at the other small and mid cap resources stocks at how much they fell friday and today.
> 
> Wake up, if your not attuned to the market you should just have your money in some sort of fund and check it every 6 months.




what a toss


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## CarbonSteel (16 March 2011)

LRG said:


> What a fantastic day for us SDL holders - NOT!
> 
> What is going on, collapsed this afternoon - low of 35.5 close of 38 cents.
> 
> ...




See here for what is happening:

http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...clear-fears-grow/story-e6frfkur-1226021951149

Gives you a good idea of worldwide market sentiment.


----------



## RaymondJ (16 March 2011)

LRG said:


> What a fantastic day for us SDL holders - NOT!
> 
> What is going on, collapsed this afternoon - low of 35.5 close of 38 cents.
> 
> ...




A lot of people will let you know how smart they are in this forum, its a pitty some good advice would be better. Carbon steel has some. Apart from Ore prices being down the whole market has been spooked firstly by the war in the middle east and then by the Quake/Tsunami in Japan. The market will come back- it had a good day today. Japan will use a lot of resources to rebuild and if it shuts down its nuclear plants it will have to use gas or some other fuel to generate power. SDL has other mining interests such as manganese and it has been waiting for the BFS (Bankable Feasability Study) to be released sometime near the end of this month, so we wait. Hope this helps
bye


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## mel (17 March 2011)

ANN is out!!!    Resource ugrade


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## dumadiscount (17 March 2011)

SDL is winning like Charlie Sheen.

Glad I've been patient with SDL!


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## RaymondJ (17 March 2011)

SDL is lifting very nicely-up to 47 as of 1221est.
That was a big upgrade and just at the right time too putting a great base under the stock price.
 Japan will need lots more ore oil and steel to rebuild and to supply power and to build the steel. If the world economy calms down a bit this could be great.
Almost restores my faith

bye now


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## mr. jeff (17 March 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> SDL is lifting very nicely-up to 47 as of 1221est.
> That was a big upgrade and just at the right time too putting a great base under the stock price.
> Japan will need lots more ore oil and steel to rebuild and to supply power and to build the steel. If the world economy calms down a bit this could be great.
> Almost restores my faith
> ...








Yeah this is good news, SDL needed something to release, on the other hand, we already know they have a fantastic bit of dirt, what we want is to see the size of the shovel and buckets that someone is going to provide them with.

Currently sitting back in December price wise. DFS due end of March - that's 2 weeks max, plus strat partner announcement still pending, so generally the upcoming news flow could help this stock stand up (assuming that things generally settle from being outright blazingly out of control to just ridiculously crazy...)



Note chart looks like 3 days ago SDL was going to visit the south pole for while, now things have perked up with good volume.
good luck.


----------



## LRG (17 March 2011)

yes, some good news.  Suspect it will hit the fin review, australian etc tmw and we will see the SP clos back thru 50 cents tmw.

Doesnt change the fact that alot of long holders got stopped out a couple of days ago with stop losses going off and no buyers forcing a low of 35.5 on the day for the vultures lucky enough to be on the buy side. 6 cents up the next day then 4 cents today that s 20% up in 2 days.
The stops hurt me on my CFD positions.
i defintitly did not see the Japan nuclear panic coming - who could!!
oh well that is life in the leverage trading game.
long term still way ahead with SDL and a lot more positive to come in the years ahead to production in 2014! just hold and ride thru the ups and downs folks.


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## HSP1 (18 March 2011)

Does anyone know (or care to speculate) on what's with the huge volume traded today??   My ETrade account is showing Volume over 490 million (with high turnover).  I am a long term holder of SDL and have never seen more than 150 mil traded in a day over the past 5 years.


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## TheAbyss (18 March 2011)

HSP1 said:


> Does anyone know (or care to speculate) on what's with the huge volume traded today??   My ETrade account is showing Volume over 490 million (with high turnover).  I am a long term holder of SDL and have never seen more than 150 mil traded in a day over the past 5 years.




Possibly Talbot Group selling?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...raded-on-the-asx/story-e6frg9no-1226024121531


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## mel (19 March 2011)

An article in the AFR says that Hanlong Mining bought Mr Talbots shares


----------



## mr. jeff (19 March 2011)

mel said:


> An article in the AFR says that Hanlong Mining bought Mr Talbots shares



 I cant post the article but basically it elaborates on a Chinese co. Hanlong Mining having bought the 16% stake. (Hanlong also has a BIG holding in Moly Mines. 
Hanlong want to chase SDL as fast as possible into production, so this is fantastic news with a chunk of the company locked in for the long term. The near term is looking very good for SDL. (you never know what is around the corner of course).


----------



## talktome (19 March 2011)

The Talbot Group is winding up a lot of assets, as in cashing in. I believe the correct terminology is monetizing......from memory.

Their Captain was lost last year in the plane crash and without it`s leader the Talbot Group has become somewhat of a non-motivated investor. 

They have in turn passed on their SDL shares to a more motivated investor by the name of Hanlong Mining (http://www.hanlongmining.com/). Their main aim is to invest AU$5 Billion in Australian mining companies. SDL is in Africa but still Australian. They also help with infrastructure financing and financing in general in the mining sector.

I`d say their buy price of $0.44 was just lucky with the multiple-crisis in Japan affecting markets around the world.

All positive I see,

talktome





SYDNEY””Mining-investment company Talbot Group has sold a stake in iron-ore explorerSundance Resources Ltd. and plans to sell off all of its $871 million Australian dollars (US$865 million) in investments, Sundance Chairman George Jones said Friday.

Privately owned Talbot Group's investment total is from the company's 2009 annual report. The company owns stakes in numerous exploration and development companies including natural-gas developments in South America and a coking-coal mine in Mozambique.

Mr. Jones said that the large parcel of shares in the central Africa-focused iron-ore explorer, valued at A$109.9 million, that changed hands shortly before the close of the Australian Securities Exchange had belonged to Talbot Group.

"It wasn't a surprise," he told Dow Jones Newswires. "The trustees of the Talbot Group are looking to monetize all the assets. People from the estate have been consulting with me and they reached the stage where it was time to move."

Asked whether Talbot Group had sold out of Sundance or was planning other share sales, Talbot Chief Executive Shane Edwards said, "We make no comment on our businesses."

Investors had long speculated about the future of Talbot Group's investments without the leadership of Ken Talbot, the founder of Macarthur Coal Ltd. and a nonexecutive director on Sundance's board as well as a long-standing mining investor. He was killed last June in a plane crash while visiting Sundance's Mbalam iron-ore project on the border of the central African countries of Cameroon and Republic of Congo.

Talbot's stake in Sundance, equivalent to around 16% of the company, was bought for 44 cents a share by Hanlong Mining, a subsidiary of privately owned Chinese infrastructure and mining group Hanlong Group.

Peter Mansell, chairman of Hanlong Mining, said: "We have been interested in Sundance. Our ambition is to be a major iron-ore producer and this stake came up at very short notice."

Among Talbot's other investments, it is the largest shareholder of Karoon Gas Australia Ltd. Its 13.1% stake in the A$1.43 billion company has a current market value of A$193.9 million. Karoon is involved in an Australian natural-gas exploration joint venture with ConocoPhillips and has prospects in Brazil and Peru.

Talbot is also 58.9% majority owner of the Revuboe River Mine, a coal project in Mozambique which intends to produce 17 million tons a year of coking and thermal coal from 2013, with development costs estimated at US$500 million to US$600 million. Steelmakers Nippon Steel Corp. and Posco are minority partners, holding 33.3% and 7.8%, respectively.

Revuboe's land holding sits directly between the three main tenements held by Riversdale Mining Ltd., which is currently the subject of a A$4.0 billion takeover offer from Rio Tinto Ltd.

Talbot Group also holds 19.84% of Papua New Guinea-focused metals explorer Goldminex Resources Ltd., 11.7% of Indonesia-focused Robust Resources Ltd., and 10.42% of unlisted offshore oil and gas explorer Advent Energy Ltd, according to company websites and regulatory filings.

The company has smaller stakes in west African iron-ore explorer Bellzone Mining PLC, uranium explorer Berkeley Resources Ltd., and Tiger Resources Ltd. , a copper explorer based in the southern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Talbot Group last month sold its entire stake in uranium explorer Marathon Resources Ltd. for about A$13 million.

Sundance Thursday announced it had more than doubled the most-reliable "indicated" measure of hematite iron ore in its Mbalam project to 417.7 million metric tons from a previous figure of 169 million tons, largely as a result of resources on the Congolese side of the border being moved from the less-reliable "inferred" category.

Sundance said it would produce a definitive feasibility study on the project by the end of the month.

The company plans to build a 476-kilometer railway and port on the coast of Cameroon to export the ore from its inland site, needing US$3.36 billion in capital spending to reach first production in 2014.

It is currently putting the proposal to investors in China, advised by Citic Securities Co. Ltd., but Mr. Mansell said there were no immediate plans for Hanlong to fund the development.

"We would see ourselves as being a very supportive shareholder when it comes to funding infrastructure but that is several steps ahead of where we are right now," he said.

Write to David Fickling at david.fickling@dowjones.com and Ross Kelly atross.kelly@dowjones.com





http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704608504576207913375721184.html


----------



## talktome (19 March 2011)

*SDL`s newest `AU$190m` shareholder`s strategic plan Down Under.*

Hanlong Mining, a privately-owned Chinese mining house, has announced a strategic plan to invest up to AUD$5 billion in  Australian steel-related raw materials  and agriculture and renewable energy projects. 

At a business luncheon in Sydney to celebrate Hanlong Mining becoming the majority shareholder in dual-listed Moly Mines Limited, Hanlong Group majority shareholder Liu Han (Mr Liu) said the company would look to fund and develop other world-class mineral assets such as the Moly Mines Spinifex Ridge Molybdenum Project.

To an audience including representatives of major Chinese banks, Mr Liu outlined the strategy to build a $3-$5 billion major mining house  to develop  Australian steel-related resources and alloying agents including iron ore, molybdenum, manganese and chrome. 

In addition, Hanlong Mining is examining investing in related infrastructure to bring raw materials from mine to market, to avoid supply bottlenecks in road, rail and port facilities.

Mr Liu said Hanlong has received significant support from banks for its expansion plan and is well placed to develop large-scale projects over the coming years. 

Hanlong would use Australian expertise to develop projects in Australia and worldwide.

Hanlong Mining is  part of Sichuan Hanlong Group, which over the past two decades has become one of the biggest private companies in China’s Sichuan Province. The company has more than 12,000 staff worldwide, with interests in mining, electricity, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, real estate, tourism and environmental technology.

Mr Liu said Hanlong Mining was borne out of the obvious need to create truly world-class mining companies that can secure reliable and high quality mineral resources to satisfy China’s growth and demand for infrastructure and consumer products.

Mr Liu said Hanlong Mining was looking to build on its Spinifex Ridge acquisition and to significantly increase investment in Australia. The company has developed an investment strategy and commenced discussions into acquiring and developing a number of Australian mining projects.

Hanlong was also pursuing investment opportunities in Australian agriculture, solar and  clean energy projects. A large-scale investment fund was being set aside for renewable energy investment. Hanlong has a strong track record of investments in solar technologies in China and plans to build on this experience with vigour in Australia.  

Mr Liu said Hanlong saw that it had a responsibility to invest in technologies to create a sustainable future, to create jobs and wealth, and be at the cutting edge of new technology and be a model corporate citizen. 

Hanlong Mining last week completed the settlement of a US$200 million equity and debt funding agreement with Moly Mines and both parties now look forward to working with the current Moly Mines board to develop the mine at Spinifex Ridge into a world-class asset. 

In May, detailed negotiations for the US$500 million finance loan facility are expected to be completed and should be available for drawdown by 30 September 2010.

A month ago, Hanlong Mining received its final approval from China Development Bank to purchase a 55.3% stake in Moly Mines Ltd.

The Moly Mines investment adds to Hanlong Mining’s plans to become a 25% shareholder in US-based General Moly Inc.

The purchase is awaiting approval from General Moly's shareholders. General Moly has an 80% stake in the world's biggest molybdenum resource, whose reserves in Mountain Hope, Eureka, Nevada, total 1.3 billion pounds. The remaining 20% is owned by Pohang Iron and Steel Co or POSCO, a firm based in Pohang, South Korea.

General Moly also owns a molybdenum deposit in Central Nevada that has molybdenum reserves of around 500 million pounds.

At the event, the staff of Hanlong Mining Pty Ltd presented a charity donation of A$ 100,000 to the Chinese consulate for the Yushu Earthquake Disaster Relief Fund.


----------



## talktome (19 March 2011)

The Talbot Group has been selling their assets over the last several months. SDL isn`t the only company to be sold from their portfolio.

talktome



AN orderly disposal of the late mining magnate Ken Talbot's major assets has begun.

A $190 million parcel of stock he owned in Sundance Resources changed hands yesterday.

George Jones, the chairman of Sundance, a West African mining explorer, confirmed Mr Talbot's 16 per cent stake in the group had been sold for 44c a share.

Don Nissen and Shane Edwards, from the Talbot Group, would not comment yesterday.

But it is believed the US-based trustee of the late billionaire's estate is quietly selling all of Mr Talbot's major assets.

The Sundance sale follows the Talbot group selling its 19.9 per cent holding in Marathon Resources in February at 75c a share, for $13 million.

Sundance shares yesterday closed up 2c at 49c.
Since Mr Talbot's death in a plane crash last June, the trustee to his estate has been slowly unwinding the Macarthur Coal founder's $1 billion equity portfolio.

Source: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/talbot-sundance-stock-nets-190m/story-e6frfh4f-1226024296102


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## CarbonSteel (25 March 2011)

More good news for SDL shareholders from 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...es-China-mills-for-F9FXX?opendocument&src=rss



> Sundance Resources Ltd is seeking Chinese investors to help fund a $US4 billion ($A3.95 billion) iron ore project in the Cameroon, west Africa, the latest company seeking to challenge the dominance of Vale, Rio Tinto Ltd and BHP Billiton Ltd in the overseas market for steelmaking's basic material.
> 
> Sundance is in talks with Chinese steel mills, the natural candidates to invest in the project given Beijing's push to consolidate domestic steelmaking and reduce its reliance on the world's three biggest producers of iron ore, said Sundance's managing director Giulio Casello said.
> 
> ...


----------



## Crom (26 March 2011)

SDL seems to be in the news consistently now, also with a fair bit of speculation/rumours.  All very exciting for holders, albeit the current share price!

The DFS is completed this coming week and then announced the following week. 

A great stock with a very interesting background and future.


----------



## talktome (28 March 2011)

Topic: DFS Release Date

I am not sure if the DFS release date is from the government to SDL or from SDL to the market.

SDL has to look over it before it is released to the market of course so that you would think that would be from the government to SDL then.

What do you all think?

Thanks,

talktome


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## The Muffin Man (28 March 2011)

I don't think it has anything to do with the Government, it's a piece of work sanctioned by the company. It will be finished by 31 March, then I'd assume would have to be looked over by the board and a release to the ASX created. I'd say that would take about a week, so expect the public announcement from 7th April onwards.

I personally think a lot of the DFS information will be built into the share price already, and we may only see a small rise to, say, 50c.


----------



## jonojpsg (29 March 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> I don't think it has anything to do with the Government, it's a piece of work sanctioned by the company. It will be finished by 31 March, then I'd assume would have to be looked over by the board and a release to the ASX created. I'd say that would take about a week, so expect the public announcement from 7th April onwards.
> 
> I personally think a lot of the DFS information will be built into the share price already, and we may only see a small rise to, say, 50c.




Hey muffinman, tend to agree, although am hoping you're not right!!  Main things I can see that potentially might come out that will move the SP is either possibility of higher output, eg 50MT rather than 35MT, and should DEFINITELY be higher assumed IO price long term, as their last study put it at $65/t which I don't think anyone is forecasting now?  Give their very low cost of actual production ($20/t maybe a bit higher now), a $5 or $10/t improvement in price would go straight to the bottom line.

Hoping for 55c post release


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## adobee (30 March 2011)

heap of media and press latelty about China looking to break the australian io cartel and there heavy investment in Africa.. China hoping to take 50% of market out of Africa in the next five years..  This media should be positive for the likes of SDL, AVZ and other African miners..  Majority a regurgitation of David Hales Comments .. video of interview on lateline http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/


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## nioka (30 March 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> More good news for SDL shareholders from
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...es-China-mills-for-F9FXX?opendocument&src=rss




It will only be good news if SDL only suffers reasonable share dilution and it's potential partner doesn't get dominance over the company. There is a lot of time and money needed before any iron ore is sold. The company structure may change dramatically before then. I do hold a fair number of SDL which I bought at the very bottom. It was a great buy then but it will not repeat some of the performances by those iron ore companies that started production in time to take advantage of the shortages experienced recently which should continue for another year or two. These have been boom times and the boom will continue for a little while. My strategy is to get in during the bad times but exit before the boom ends. I doubt that I will hold SDL when it is a producer.


----------



## mr. jeff (30 March 2011)

Was a star, now a chihuahua. Short term chihuahua.

If I could put the construction bill on credit and take a swipe of the profit, I would. But my limit is about 3000x under that needed. (3000 keen holders however...) 

It seems that there must be something up with negotiations, there has been little decent info out from SDL for quite a while, media now repeating things. Although that 15.95% swipe could signal a change in the SP trend. 
If you use your bullish imagination this could be a good place to buy in anticipation of a few decent upcoming possibilities. 



> The first stage of Sundance's project, consisting of two separate deposits in Cameroon and neighbouring Congo, a 480 kilometre railway and a port, will yield 35 million tonnes of iron ore a year for 10 years, according to Casello.
> 
> That's still less than the production plans outlined by some of the other challengers to the sector's majors.
> 
> ...




The volume they want to ship looks small in comparison to upcoming plans from majors, and perhaps the IO supply/demand will have evened when SDL is ready for first shipment; then the investment may be less attractive than a less capital intensive earlier delivery one. We will see what px says.


----------



## jonojpsg (4 April 2011)

Will be interesting to see how trading goes this week in anticipation of the DFS release - will it be the usual high volume up day(s) prior to the release as the news filters out ahead of the official release

Already a bit more buying interest this morning, which makes sense given that release will have to come in the next couple of days.


----------



## kingcarmleo (4 April 2011)

thetradercentral has an article about SDL today.


----------



## Sirbill (4 April 2011)

kingcarmleo said:


> thetradercentral has an article about SDL today.





Broker Valuations

Southern Cross Equities:  Target – $0.81
GMP Securities: Target – $0.75
Bell Potter Securities: Target – $0.72
Stonebridge: Target- $0.66

It is important to note after the definitive feasibility study is released to market, valuations are likely to increase significantly.





The most important part of that article


----------



## talktome (6 April 2011)

***DFS has been released***


PDF attached.


Main Points:

  Stage One capital expenditure of approximately US$4.6B.

 Capital payback projected to be achieved in three years.

 Cash operating costs, pre-royalties, of US$21.20 per tonne for Stage One.



Other:


The DFS covers all aspects of Stage One including the geology, mining, infrastructure, engineering,
construction and economics as they relate to development and production. The DFS now forms the
basis for capital appropriation and will provide the budget input for the Project to move forward to
a Final Investment Decision.


SDL CEO - “I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate our team on delivering this excellent result.
We are all now focused on moving ahead as rapidly as possible to secure final approvals and obtain
project funding to enable us to commence construction later this year."


First ore on ship anticipated in the last quarter of calendar 2014, positioning Sundance to become a significant global iron ore producer.


Discussions with potential strategic partners are progressing well and we look forward to concluding these discussions in the first half of 2011. 


Sundance Resources looks forward to Final Investment Decision and the start of construction before the end of the year.


Talktome


----------



## jonojpsg (6 April 2011)

Yep, looks good 

Costs have risen since PFS BUT importantly most of that is extra for Nabeba mine/rail and only minimal cost rises over last year and a half.  Now if this project was in Oz they'd be looking at 30%+ cost increases over that time, so it's not too bad.

No average IO price given, but on rough calcs over 25 years at 35Mtpa gives 875Mt total and total revenue was given as $99B, so on that basis averages $113/t which seems reasonable.

Impact on SP may be minimal given that no real surprises - have to wait for partner/financing to be finalised before we see gains towards $1 IMO.


----------



## RaymondJ (6 April 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Yep, looks good
> 
> Costs have risen since PFS BUT importantly most of that is extra for Nabeba mine/rail and only minimal cost rises over last year and a half.  Now if this project was in Oz they'd be looking at 30%+ cost increases over that time, so it's not too bad.
> 
> ...





I agree with you the financing contracts are the key to this. I thought there might have been more about that in the latest release.


----------



## Billyjoel (6 April 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> I don't think it has anything to do with the Government, it's a piece of work sanctioned by the company. It will be finished by 31 March, then I'd assume would have to be looked over by the board and a release to the ASX created. I'd say that would take about a week, so expect the public announcement from 7th April onwards.
> 
> I personally think a lot of the DFS information will be built into the share price already, and we may only see a small rise to, say, 50c.




Hi Muffin Man, DFS is release through Comsec. Not up on SDL site yet? Its positive. Not a lot new though. Good bit is ...'move ahead as quickly as possible...final approvals (gov)...project financing...commence construction later this year'. IO priced in model is at $105 which is positive. Wait and see how the borkers interpit the DFS I guess. bj


----------



## CarbonSteel (6 April 2011)

nioka said:


> It will only be good news if SDL only suffers reasonable share dilution and it's potential partner doesn't get dominance over the company. There is a lot of time and money needed before any iron ore is sold. The company structure may change dramatically before then. I do hold a fair number of SDL which I bought at the very bottom. It was a great buy then but it will not repeat some of the performances by those iron ore companies that started production in time to take advantage of the shortages experienced recently which should continue for another year or two. These have been boom times and the boom will continue for a little while. My strategy is to get in during the bad times but exit before the boom ends. I doubt that I will hold SDL when it is a producer.




I think I will hold SDL when it is a producer, chiefly because I have seen the gain and gain of FMG after becoming a producer. I too, bought SDL at an average 10.2 cents, so it owes me nothing. The question about continued demand for IO is somewhat vexed, but SDL CEO has today said that prices will continue to be strong for some time. By that, I gather that he is talking about more than 2 - 3 years. I must admit that I tend to agree, given that we have 1.3 Bn people in India and a similar population in China. All these people will want cars, homes, commercial and industrial buildings over the next 10 - 15 years as they become more affluent. That does not take into account other developing nations in the Asian and African regions. I think there will be rise upon rise for IO as we try to satisfy the demand of almost 40% of the worlds population over the next decade or two.


----------



## CarbonSteel (6 April 2011)

Sirbill said:


> Broker Valuations
> 
> Southern Cross Equities:  Target – $0.81
> GMP Securities: Target – $0.75
> ...




Didn't happen unfortunately. I expect the next milestone is finance/offtake agreements and the respective governments tipping in their share ( 50% of costs to date) to secure their 10 - 15% (can't remember) as per the original agreement. Maybe at this point we will see a little more enthusiasm?:jump:


----------



## CarbonSteel (6 April 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> I don't think it has anything to do with the Government, it's a piece of work sanctioned by the company. It will be finished by 31 March, then I'd assume would have to be looked over by the board and a release to the ASX created. I'd say that would take about a week, so expect the public announcement from 7th April onwards.
> 
> I personally think a lot of the DFS information will be built into the share price already, and we may only see a small rise to, say, 50c.




Absolutely spot on Muff! Love ya work mate!


----------



## LRG (6 April 2011)

zmalecki said:


> Hi guys.
> It is niece to see old and new friends on SDL page.
> Since forecast 4.55 was my, and already passed half a year since last one, pleases find corrected one.
> Basically, end result is similar.
> ...




hello 
*TPIR (Theoretical Price Increase Ration) = 10 (target PE) / 0.75 (Current) = 13.33
So in theory target ptice = Current pricr * TPIR = .37 * 13.33 = 4.93 AUD

Please keep in mind that price is calculated taking into account repayment of 
costs of financing in first 5 years of production.I'm still in.*

So Z

with the latest DFS out today I would be very interested that you redo your calcs again and come up with your estimate of the FUTURE share value in 2014/15 come production.

Todays report suggested to me:
NPV = $4.3B US divided by 2.8B shares = $1.54 per share present value.

Therefore I am a bit confused why the share price did not rally a bit today on the news.

The market just seemed to dismiss the DFS today anyway.

Maybe there will be more rises ovwr the days to come as news filters out.

But, does not look like any significant gains are in the wind until finance is line up by june july.

also construction commence is now not 3rd qtr but by end of 2011.

patience is definitely the key with this one as timeline keeps getting stretched out.


----------



## Billyjoel (6 April 2011)

I am sorry yet when I read your post I do not know why, I find myself taking on a scotish accent.

I disagree with your figures. 

Thus I disagree with your argument.

Thus I disagree with your total position.

No offence inteded.

SDL is still a good investment. Fear aside.

 bj


----------



## pegasus9 (6 April 2011)

Billyjoel said:


> Hi Muffin Man, DFS is release through Comsec. Not up on SDL site yet? Its positive. Not a lot new though. Good bit is ...'move ahead as quickly as possible...final approvals (gov)...project financing...commence construction later this year'. IO priced in model is at $105 which is positive. Wait and see how the borkers interpit the DFS I guess. bj




The price quoted in the DFS is 105c / dmtu.  one dmtu is equal to 1% FE per tonne of ore... therefore at 66% FE the price used is 66 *1.05 or about $69 per tonne.  This would seem to be a very low price to use in todays market.  How much better would the DFS had looked if it had been a price of $105 / tonne....  Hopefully the analyst will pick this up in their valuations....


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## mr. jeff (7 April 2011)

pegasus9 said:


> The price quoted in the DFS is 105c / dmtu.  one dmtu is equal to 1% FE per tonne of ore... therefore at 66% FE the price used is 66 *1.05 or about $69 per tonne.  This would seem to be a very low price to use in todays market.  How much better would the DFS had looked if it had been a price of $105 / tonne....  Hopefully the analyst will pick this up in their valuations....




coverage in fin review today, DSO @ 63.6% and operating costs $21.20 / t ; 3 year pay back period. 3 years! Assuming the build costs are realistic.
May have underestimated SDL's chances at cracking the big time.

There was also a Street Talk comment, "Xstrata adds a groovy Sundance Twist" discussing the possible attractiveness of SDL to Xstrata now that the DFS has been completed and released. There may be a grab to come and whether this becomes reflected in the SP we will see. 
Looking at the chart 
	

		
			
		

		
	



it could be suggested that if the current positive movement continue in the general market, SDL may start thinking about recovering its past price top, where we had no DFS, but were expecting the announcement of a capital agreement and expecting further news. Good luck.


----------



## adobee (7 April 2011)

SDL now advertising on the radio ??? Sure the advertisement said production 2011...
DO they need more market exposure to get this moving by mums and dads .. surely not ..


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## mr. jeff (7 April 2011)

adobee said:


> SDL now advertising on the radio ??? Sure the advertisement said production 2011...
> DO they need more market exposure to get this moving by mums and dads .. surely not ..




where was this advertised ? directly by company?  it is not a good sign if they are plugging. 

Reminds me of FML trying to get market interested by making daily releases saying things like "we dug a hole, then we drilled a bit, oh and today bill got his teeth fixed so we are closer to higher production...." (ok obviously not, but the point I make is that it doesn't seem to help...)


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## The Muffin Man (7 April 2011)

pegasus9 said:


> The price quoted in the DFS is 105c / dmtu.  one dmtu is equal to 1% FE per tonne of ore... therefore at 66% FE the price used is 66 *1.05 or about $69 per tonne.  This would seem to be a very low price to use in todays market.  How much better would the DFS had looked if it had been a price of $105 / tonne....  Hopefully the analyst will pick this up in their valuations....




Absolutely correct guys, this is a point everyone needs to pick up on. SDL is still using under US$70/t in all of it's financial modelling, it's just expressed it differently in the DFS release.

USc/dmtu is a different measurement to US$/t.

US105c/dmtu is equivalent to the US$68-69/t that has been used by the company sice day dot.

This means that there is still huge potential upside if the IO price is anything above that US$68-69 when we start producing.


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## nioka (7 April 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> This means that there is still huge potential upside if the IO price is anything above that US$68-69 when we start producing.




There is also potential downside. There are some massive projects on the go to increase the supply of iron ore. By the time SDl gets something to sell the iron ore price could be nothing like todays prices. I'm holding for now, tax reasons make a difference, but I doubt that I will still hold when they are selling iron ore.


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## RaymondJ (7 April 2011)

nioka said:


> There is also potential downside. There are some massive projects on the go to increase the supply of iron ore. By the time SDl gets something to sell the iron ore price could be nothing like todays prices. I'm holding for now, tax reasons make a difference, but I doubt that I will still hold when they are selling iron ore.




The CRABS (short sellers and bots) are in control at the moment.

Yes there are always downsides to this project, but it is moving along and it is one of the all time biggies. With the weather up here in W.A lately this area could well suffer the same fate as N.Queensland coal industry, and I was living in QLD when that happened, so before anyone says it cant happen think again. The project area Govt's are all on board with this and they will push this ahead and we know China is going to keep on charging on despite the fluctuations in the interest rates etc there, the overall direction for them is up.

The price of iron ore could well be higher by the time this comes on line who knows you cant just extrapolate data and say it is going to be lower.

But your point is taken and it is a good one it keeps us all in reality thankyou for that.


----------



## The Muffin Man (7 April 2011)

nioka said:


> There is also potential downside. There are some massive projects on the go to increase the supply of iron ore. By the time SDl gets something to sell the iron ore price could be nothing like todays prices. I'm holding for now, tax reasons make a difference, but I doubt that I will still hold when they are selling iron ore.




But nioka, SDL isn't using today's prices for it's financial modelling. The only way there could be downside to what has been presented so far is if the price of IO is below the US$65 - US$70 used in the financial modelling. All of the financial modelling and data is being done on that US$65 - US$70. What are the chances of that happening? Low I would think, considering India is just about to enter it's economic expansion phase and is starting to apply export taxes on IO, Brazil is looking at applying export taxes on IO so it develops it's own domestic steel industry, and Chinese IO production prices just keep rising and rising as their ore becomes of much lower grade and harder to extract.

Downside if IO is below US$65-US$70

Upside if IO is above US$65-US$70


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## nioka (7 April 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> But nioka, SDL isn't using today's prices for it's financial modelling. The only way there could be downside to what has been presented so far is if the price of IO is below the US$65 - US$70 used in the financial modelling. All of the financial modelling and data is being done on that US$65 - US$70. What are the chances of that happening? Low I would think, considering India is just about to enter it's economic expansion phase and is starting to apply export taxes on IO, Brazil is looking at applying export taxes on IO so it develops it's own domestic steel industry, and Chinese IO production prices just keep rising and rising as their ore becomes of much lower grade and harder to extract.
> 
> Downside if IO is below US$65-US$70
> 
> Upside if IO is above US$65-US$70




If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go.


----------



## mr. jeff (7 April 2011)

nioka said:


> If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go.




You're a realist, I like it.
If there is one thing I have learnt over the years, it's that the high prices lead to me making money on others' hope and enthusiasm about those high prices!

I am in and am going to bail the ride when the crest first breaks, which will hopefully be a while yet. Don't forget that there is added resilience in this management team due to it's heritage, and there is some padding in their figures too.

You never know what lies around the corner. Perhaps SDL needs to  code some more DSO or maybe they need another company to share the rail line...they may still be trying to convince China that investment in this ore is warranted... This could get very stale very quickly if they don't find someone soon in these solid conditions. Capital outlay vs. ore delivery date is a decent duration, might be better options elsewhere currently...


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## The Muffin Man (8 April 2011)

nioka said:


> If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go.




I agree that much more supply is coming on line (that's why I'm expecting prices to come down to some degree), but if SDL can't be profitable with it's OPEX costs then no IO miner can be. As the price drops it will be the high-mid cost producers that go first, meaning once they go supply will naturally contract. As the IO price drops it will also become more uneconomical for Chinese mines to produce due to their high production costs. SDL is sitting pretty as far as OPEX goes. I don't think that the prices used in the modelling are in any way outlandish, I'd say they are ultra conservative, that's why I think there is more chance of there being upside to the financial modelling when considering the IO price used than there being downside.


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## CarbonSteel (10 April 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> I agree that much more supply is coming on line (that's why I'm expecting prices to come down to some degree), but if SDL can't be profitable with it's OPEX costs then no IO miner can be. As the price drops it will be the high-mid cost producers that go first, meaning once they go supply will naturally contract. As the IO price drops it will also become more uneconomical for Chinese mines to produce due to their high production costs. SDL is sitting pretty as far as OPEX goes. I don't think that the prices used in the modelling are in any way outlandish, I'd say they are ultra conservative, that's why I think there is more chance of there being upside to the financial modelling when considering the IO price used than there being downside.




We are also in unprecedented territory. There is no point in history where 40% of the worlds population needs to become affluent within 20 years. Now we really do have this reality. As I said it is unprecedented and it is anyones guess what will happen in this scenario. Far from prices decreasing with more supply, it is also possible that prices could triple isn't it? Who really knows? The world has never been here before.

Can anyone give me a website that does not charge for the current spot IO price?

Greatly appreciated if you can.

Regards to all.


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## talktome (12 April 2011)

Here's a monthly chart:

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=120

You can change the specs too of course. The current price is on top of the chart to the right.

I have attached a 10Y Monthly chart.


talktome


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## CarbonSteel (14 April 2011)

talktome said:


> Here's a monthly chart:
> 
> http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=120
> 
> ...




Thank you very much talktome. A most useful site brimming with info!


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## CarbonSteel (14 April 2011)

I note with interest that in todays investor presentation the conclusion of finance/offtake partner agreements has now been moved to straddle 2nd & 3rd Q's. I guess that means end of the end of Q3 unless it is modified yet again.


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## jonojpsg (15 April 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> I note with interest that in todays investor presentation the conclusion of finance/offtake partner agreements has now been moved to straddle 2nd & 3rd Q's. I guess that means end of the end of Q3 unless it is modified yet again.




Nah, it was there before this carbon.  Guilio stated in DFS release that finance/offtake would be done in 2nd qtr - here's hoping anyway


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## Billyjoel (18 April 2011)

What are Owners Costs?

Quite a large figure has been allocated to these costs and I am just trying to understand  what they might relate to?

Sorry for what may be a basic question.

Thanks bj


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## CarbonSteel (19 April 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Nah, it was there before this carbon.  Guilio stated in DFS release that finance/offtake would be done in 2nd qtr - here's hoping anyway




I beg to differ sir.

See the International Roadshow Presentation dated 28/01/11, page 16. You can find it here - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110128/pdf/41wfp32fwd7lx4.pdf - see how the diamond is in the centre of Q2?

Now look at the latest Investor Presentation date 14/04/11, page 17 - 2.5 months later. You can find it here - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110414/pdf/41y1hbl17p8846.pdf

See how the diamond now straddles Q2 & Q3?

My question is this. Why would they change their schedule in a graphic sense if they still intend to complete Finance/Off-take according to the 2.5 month old International Roadshow Presentation schedule?

I submit that instead of making what would be seen as a negative announcement, they have altered this schedule almost by slight of hand.

Given delays in the past, it is not surprising but it is fact.


----------



## Zodiac (20 April 2011)

It is of interest the delays over the years to these most important announcments ( Government ratification / Financing ). I would suggest that the board is awaiting on the Exstrata Glencore merge. Exstrata has made its point that it wants its own IO division seperate to its coal. It currently has $22b budgeted for expansion and aquisitions and the Glencore Merge will raise another $10b cash and also give it marvellous access to the markets. West Africa is the only place left where you can become a serious player ( 100m tonne per year ). Exstrata recently purchased majority share of the Zanuka IO depoist in southern Congo - ( approx 500 km away from SDL Congo ). Although a large deposit it only averages 33%. It is having difficulties planning a railway to Port Du Prince. My gut feeling or "hope" is that in reality the deal is done, Exstrata will want SDL and eventually run the railine North to SDL. That is why the Chinese have bought 20% stake of SDL quite suddenly to have some say as it also wants to become a major player with its Belinga mine ( 150km away ) but Gabon is a basket case. The Chinese would much prefer to run a rail link up to Mbalam than set up a seperate track. The hope is for a bidding war between the Chinese and the Swisse for SDL as it has what it takes for the region to open up ( rail / power / port/ stronger soveriegn risk  The board and the government is waiting for a catalyst and just maybe this merge is it.

ZODIAC


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## RaymondJ (20 April 2011)

A lot of speculation over what the company is doing and Im thinking they are not telling the real story about what is going on. Yet more delays to negotiations and this will probably be delayed again as is the habbit of the board to delay and then throw  up some old interview or appraisal dressed up to look new in an atempt tol impress somebody.

Has anyone heard that BHP is planning to triple its Iron Ore output fron the Pilbarra, I read an article about it. It wont be good for IO prices if they do, has anyone got anymore on this?

Oh by the way has any of the contracts actually been signed for the rail and port. I know there are MOU's but I dont think there is any signed sealed and delivered contracts as yet it will have to happen soon after the financing whenever that happens. Anybody know for sure?

bye now


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## mr. jeff (20 April 2011)

no contracts to my knowledge.
rest assured that BHP won't let the price go down significantly, its bad business to supply too much product.
Captain obvious just told me that SDL is going to be shipping ore from Africa, which carries more risk, but remains attractive due to the unexplored region (promising for further resources) and the fact that it is NOT BHP or RIO or VALE, that will keep some interested.
Not impressed with the performance lately. There must be major issue with getting someone signed up, I don't know what the hang up is, but it is worrying with this low level of info from SDL.
time will tell.


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## Glitch (21 April 2011)

HERE WE GO BOYS AND GIRLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## adobee (21 April 2011)

Glitch said:


> HERE WE GO BOYS AND GIRLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Here we go into a cap raising ???
Is this good news?


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## nioka (21 April 2011)

adobee said:


> Here we go into a cap raising ???
> Is this good news?




This is the start of the massive dilution that I have talked about as being necessary for SDL to advance towards their goals. I still will continue to hold SDL but I'm not expecting it to be my best investment ever. This may prove to be a good time to buy though. DYOR.

From my post earlier this month.
"If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go."


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## Billyjoel (22 April 2011)

nioka said:


> This is the start of the massive dilution that I have talked about as being necessary for SDL to advance towards their goals. I still will continue to hold SDL but I'm not expecting it to be my best investment ever. This may prove to be a good time to buy though. DYOR.
> 
> From my post earlier this month.
> "If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go."




For SDL to go up to its true potential it must first go down hard. Then we get 1 or 2 new major shareholders plus funding equals moving toward project commencement.

Equals share price growth.

Nerves of steel required for the short term.


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## CarbonSteel (25 April 2011)

nioka said:


> This is the start of the massive dilution that I have talked about as being necessary for SDL to advance towards their goals. I still will continue to hold SDL but I'm not expecting it to be my best investment ever. This may prove to be a good time to buy though. DYOR.
> 
> From my post earlier this month.
> "If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go."




Could also be the beginning of quite the opposite.... the suggested consolidation. I guess it would make sense if they are introducing a finance partner. In fact a new partner may be insisting on it. I do not see any reason for SDL to be raising capital in the general market, so I assume this capital raising is from a partner who has agreed to finance at least part of this project.

Please explain, billyjoel, what is the reasoning behind your statement that " it must first go down hard". I do not understand why this is a prerequisite for improving at a later date.


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## Billyjoel (26 April 2011)

Hi carbonsteel, the deal being built will contain a debt equity position. Debt is normal for a company in this part of its development. A large equity placement say 40% of the company will be dilutive to the share price.

There is however a huge BUT here.

The equity placement may be placed with our debt provider and or with offtake partners.

Which would be very positive to the share price.

As you said, it depends how quickly all information is released. If it comes out completely the share price may simply rise strongly. If it comes out in pieces then the share price may fall before rising.

Either way no a big issue and very exciting times for the company and long term holders.

All the best bj


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## CarbonSteel (26 April 2011)

Billyjoel said:


> Hi carbonsteel, the deal being built will contain a debt equity position. Debt is normal for a company in this part of its development. A large equity placement say 40% of the company will be dilutive to the share price.
> 
> There is however a huge BUT here.
> 
> ...




Could also be the Cameroon Govt. tipping in their share. I seem to recall from the early days that the Govt. was due to make their claim to 10 - 15% of shares (cant remember the exact %) upon completion of  the DFS  by contributing 50% of costs to date. Is that still defined as capital raising?


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## topsprog (26 April 2011)

Long term holder SDL from way back.
I have just received an email from Gindalbie announcing further funding from China. Signed in front of our PM and Chinese president in China today. Bit unusual that came to me before ASX reopens tomorrow. However, more to the point, I wonder if George Jones (chairman of both) is over there and trying to concurrently finalise SDL agreement. Just food for thought.

Also in response to last post from carbonsteel, it is my understanding that the Cameroon government is free carried for 10%, with the option to further increase this equity for a contribution of half the costs to date. I must admit I remain a bit confused on this matter after reading the various company releases.


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## LRG (28 April 2011)

IMO the Sundance team have really been caught out spin doctoring over the last few weeks/ months.  it is now apparent that Sundance are NOT close to a funding deal at all.

The SP has been heading south now for too long.  They were running out of $'s so have got another $60M to keep the expensive planning wheels turning.  They keep missing program targets and then slip in 3 month extensions in thier statements hoping no one will really notice.  Well people do notice - just look at the SP or the chart it is heading south people.

I am really disappointed with the lack of firming up of previous timelines issued by SDL management which I have taken as gospel and has cost me many $s.  Yesterday enough was enough and I exited the remainder of my CFD positions for 42 cents.  When they get down to 20 - 25 cents (which IMO they will in the coming months) on a bad world news day - as stops go off,  I may buy in again??.  I still hold many fully paid shares that I bought at avg 16 cents - it is leveraged CFD trades in SDL that have killed me.

Really I doubt now they will have a funding partner in place by June, now they just talk about getting construction of the infrastructure away by the end of year - is this code for also funding partner by end of year??  Are there really numerous potential partners out there POSCO + 3 or 4 chinese - maybe not?  Why are they still releasing "investor presentations" if they are in final negotiations with partners.  IMO they are in Panic mode now it is 50/50 if it will ever fly - very disappointed!


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## Tekwrek (29 April 2011)

LRG said:


> IMO the Sundance team have really been caught out spin doctoring over the last few weeks/ months.  it is now apparent that Sundance are NOT close to a funding deal at all.
> 
> The SP has been heading south now for too long.  They were running out of $'s so have got another $60M to keep the expensive planning wheels turning.  They keep missing program targets and then slip in 3 month extensions in thier statements hoping no one will really notice.  Well people do notice - just look at the SP or the chart it is heading south people.
> 
> ...




She does'nt look good further decreases today i also jumped out at 41c time to sit back and watch this stock correct further.


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## CarbonSteel (29 April 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Nah, it was there before this carbon.  Guilio stated in DFS release that finance/offtake would be done in 2nd qtr - here's hoping anyway




From Quarterly Report of 20/04/11: 
Strategic  Partners

"Sundance is pleased with the progress that has been achieved in recent months and looks forward to successfully concluding arrangements for the introduction of strategic partner(s) to the Project and confirmation of project financing and final investment decision *prior to the end of 2011."*

Certainly does look like this crucial milestone is becoming quite elusive! Maybe we are being fed the same diet as mushrooms now and again.


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## The Muffin Man (29 April 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> From Quarterly Report of 20/04/11:
> Strategic  Partners
> 
> "Sundance is pleased with the progress that has been achieved in recent months and looks forward to successfully concluding arrangements for the introduction of strategic partner(s) to the Project and confirmation of project financing and final investment decision *prior to the end of 2011."*
> ...




CarbonSteel, the "final investment decision" has always been slated as being towards the end of 2011. It is a quite separate milestone in the timeline from securing strategic partners. Re-check the timelines and you will see what I mean.


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## talktome (30 April 2011)

The probability of a bounce here is the best we've seen in a while.

By that I mean, the stochastics are rising from a very oversold of just 5-6 out of 100. 

That, and we have bounced off a significant price point area of $0.38ish.

It's worthy of a short trade at least.

talktome


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## talktome (30 April 2011)

PS. The bottoming out move was made on increased volume too which brings much added reliability, or at least increased probability.

talktome

PS. You can click on the charts to make them bigger.


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## Zodiac (1 May 2011)

Zodiac said:


> It is of interest the delays over the years to these most important announcments ( Government ratification / Financing ). I would suggest that the board is awaiting on the Exstrata Glencore merge. Exstrata has made its point that it wants its own IO division seperate to its coal. It currently has $22b budgeted for expansion and aquisitions and the Glencore Merge will raise another $10b cash and also give it marvellous access to the markets. West Africa is the only place left where you can become a serious player ( 100m tonne per year ). Exstrata recently purchased majority share of the Zanuka IO depoist in southern Congo - ( approx 500 km away from SDL Congo ). Although a large deposit it only averages 33%. It is having difficulties planning a railway to Port Du Prince. My gut feeling or "hope" is that in reality the deal is done, Exstrata will want SDL and eventually run the railine North to SDL. That is why the Chinese have bought 20% stake of SDL quite suddenly to have some say as it also wants to become a major player with its Belinga mine ( 150km away ) but Gabon is a basket case. The Chinese would much prefer to run a rail link up to Mbalam than set up a seperate track. The hope is for a bidding war between the Chinese and the Swisse for SDL as it has what it takes for the region to open up ( rail / power / port/ stronger soveriegn risk  The board and the government is waiting for a catalyst and just maybe this merge is it.
> 
> ZODIAC




I would have thought some one would have a comment on the above post. The Board needs to wait for Exstrata to enter the bidding game, Exstrata need to cement the merge with Glencore. In the mean time the board runs the risk of running out of funds which the Chinese would like to see. By further diluting they have called the Chinese bluff and now have the funds to wait. While waiting for Exstrata to enter the game they will prove up more resource and than announce a doubling of export facility to 70m capacity. The Chinese and Exstata will fight over the company. The 5% loss in value is nothing to the 100's% gain that will occur later this year. 

Zodiac


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## RaymondJ (2 May 2011)

Personally I  bailled about 1 week before the trading halt as the board was just rehashed old news once too often for me. I agree with some of the posts that this board is waiting for a buyout and will use the 60m to hold out. As far as I know there are no signed contracts for construction of the rail or the port facility. The big problem is the Chinese could be possible buyers and they can afford to wait. And what happens when they run out of money next time.
I could be wrong about this but this board has spent a long time and has no signed contracts.

bye now


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## Billyjoel (3 May 2011)

Hi carbonsteel, how low do you think we will go. Bj


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## CarbonSteel (5 May 2011)

Billyjoel said:


> Hi carbonsteel, how low do you think we will go. Bj




I don't know now. I am very surprised by the almost 30% loss in the last 30 days.

I guess there is some mitigation in the face of a perceived American debt crisis but when you picked it "going down hard" you were spot on.

I don't trade, so am along for the bumpy ride.


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## Billyjoel (5 May 2011)

Me to...in for long haul and not going anywhere.

Theres details of a secondary prodpectus on asx

asx.com.au
search sdl code
announcements

Might be the db deal?

for interest


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## CarbonSteel (8 May 2011)

Billyjoel said:


> Me to...in for long haul and not going anywhere.
> 
> Theres details of a secondary prodpectus on asx
> 
> ...




The secondary prospectus was for the deal already done with the institutions recently for $60mil.

Not sure what you are referring to when you say "db deal".



> The Chinese and Exstata will fight over the company. The 5% loss in value is nothing to the 100's% gain that will occur later this year.
> 
> Zodiac




I suggest that the loss in the last month is far greater than 5% if you include reduction in SP along with the effect of dilution. It seems from this forum that smaller investors are becoming disillusioned and walking away. Maybe what the big boys want?
How sure are you that Xstrata is keen and how will they go if CITIC is arranging finance? I would think CITIC would favour Chinese companies.

I would hope that we begin to emerge above the clouds before years end but I will watch Investor Presentations and Quarterly Reports very closely and take note of changes that seem to sometimes be slipped in, hoping that nobody will really notice. 

eg: (From an earlier post)


> See the International Roadshow Presentation dated 28/01/11, page 16. You can find it here - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2011012...p32fwd7lx4.pdf - see how the diamond is in the centre of Q2?
> 
> Now look at the latest Investor Presentation date 14/04/11, page 17 - 2.5 months later. You can find it here - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2011041...hbl17p8846.pdf
> 
> ...




Still, since it my nature to go down with the ship while always hoping that rescue is not far off, I'm gonna stick around .... for now.


----------



## Zodiac (8 May 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> The secondary prospectus was for the deal already done with the institutions recently for $60mil.
> 
> Not sure what you are referring to when you say "db deal".
> 
> ...




The board seems to me to be "obviously" acting like amateurs. They have spun so much that they are re spinning same points from 2 years ago. We punters can see this  but even with all this Bull *** Hunlong Mining buys a big stake at 44c and Institutions buy at 40c. These two players have done there due deliguence. Something big will happen but it is the timing that is killing the small punter. While we bleed the big boys accumalate. The question I have is why no news from the Govt, surely delay upon delay effects their country. Just look at the heat the Gabon Govt is giving the Chinese about starting Belinga " which they still have not" ( interesting?? ). And the last card is our George who has alot of emotional stake in making sure this is the right deal for the legacy of his friends. What a waste if it is not. I stake my investment on China's desire to break the cartel and Exstata's need for IO.

Zodiac





2) They are maximising the potential value of our IO deposit. The Macro situation of the cartel needs to be broken by the Chinese and Exstrata needs a IO division


----------



## talktome (10 May 2011)

Well, my $0.38 call was a little premature. It seems to be resistance now with $0.35 - $0.36 being support.

The budget has held back the whole market too in the last couple of days.

Going forward, I think a couple of weeks of going sideways would be healthy for the chart. I can't see it going past $0.42 - $0.46 for a while. 

Any chartists out there disagree?

talktome


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## zzaaxxss3401 (11 May 2011)

talktome said:


> Well, my $0.38 call was a little premature. It seems to be resistance now with $0.35 - $0.36 being support.



I'm not a chartist, but $0.34 looks like a better support / resistance level.


----------



## mr. jeff (11 May 2011)

hello all SDL people there is a release today which means nothing on paper but is also very promising,


> 11 MAY 2011
> ASX / MEDIA RELEASE
> SUNDANCE RESOURCES AND LEGEND MINING SIGN ACCESS CO-OPERATION LETTER OF INTENT
> Sundance Resources Limited (ASX Code: SDL or ‘the Company’) and Legend Mining Limited (ASX:LEG) have signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) for Access Co-operation with regards to usage of rail and port infrastructure as part of the Mbalam Iron Ore Project located in Cameroon and Congo in central West Africa.
> The LOI outlines that the two Australian-based companies with iron ore assets in Cameroon will together examine opportunities for how Sundance’s proposed infrastructure may offer rail and port haulage to Legend’s Ngovoyang Project.




This is a great thing, and whilst always in the pipeline at least they are letting us know what is happening behind the scenes to some extent. now for the infrastructure signing ? ... . . . . . . .. ..


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## Zodiac (11 May 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> hello all SDL people there is a release today which means nothing on paper but is also very promising,
> 
> 
> This is a great thing, and whilst always in the pipeline at least they are letting us know what is happening behind the scenes to some extent. now for the infrastructure signing ? ... . . . . . . .. ..




You have to be kidding! What planet have you been on. "The board is letting us know what is happening behind the scenes"??? The board has a very poor history of transparency boarding on misinformation. Every prospectus is different. And yes we are going to let another minor use our rail that does not exist for a deposit that they have not yet proven. This agreement is positive but not great in my opinion. The board is waiting and needs to be seen to be doing somthing, thus this announcement. In the Pilbara minors go to court in desperation to get a deal like this. 

Zodiac


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## mr. jeff (11 May 2011)

Zodiac
It is quite possible that the board is up there with Kim Jong Il as far as releasing useful information is concerned, but I'll let the chart do the talking for now, not much else to draw conclusions from -





watching and waiting; commiserating. 

(I do not hold)


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## jonojpsg (12 May 2011)

From chart, obvious level of support at current SP (35c) and if that doesn't hold then 30c.  Definitely needs some CONCRETE news to lift it from here IEO (in everybodies opinion haha )

I am tempted though to have a dabble between 30 and 35 given the clear upside IF AND WHEN some definitive news comes through


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## RaymondJ (13 May 2011)

I just found this on the Bloomberg web site. Sounds to me like theyve got nothing and are trying to convince everyone theyve got something, also another rehashed news release on ASX. Looks like their trying to scare some organisation into action meybee.

*Sundance Seeking China Partner for $4.7 Billion African Iron Ore Project*By Elisabeth Behrmann - May 13, 2011 11:22 AM GMT+1000 
inShare.0More 
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email . Sundance Resources CEO Giulio Casello speaking in an interview in Sydney. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg 

 Sundance Resources CEO Giulio Casello. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg 
Sundance Resources Ltd., seeking to develop a $4.7 billion iron ore mine, port and rail road in West Africa, may sell as much as half of the project to a Chinese partner to help fund construction. 

“We are targeting to have a strategic partner selected by the end of June, so we can then move towards a final investment decision towards the end of September,” Giulio Casello, chief executive officer of Perth-based Sundance, said in an interview. “We are getting very strongly focused towards China.” 

Chinese companies are scouring the globe for investments in steelmaking raw-material assets to feed surging demand in the world’s fastest growing major economy. A number of groups have visited the Mbalam project that straddles the border of Cameroon and Republic of Congo and another potential partner is scheduled to visit “shortly,” said Casello. 

A partner would “buy into the project level” and be able to sign up for sales accords, while Sundance will retain no less than 50 percent of Mbalam, he said in Sydney. The company’s biggest shareholder is Sichuan Hanlong Group, which owns 17.94 percent. 

Sundance rose 4.4 percent to 36 cents at 11:15 a.m. in Sydney trading, compared with a 0.4 percent drop in the S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index. 

Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA’s are among companies making acquisitions in Africa. London-based Rio has acquired control of Riversdale Mining Ltd., which owns coking coal projects in Mozambique. 

Building Start 
Sundance completed a study of Mbalam last month and plans to start construction at the end of the year. It aims to start shipping iron ore by 2014 and produce 35 million metric tons a year. This includes building a 510 kilometer (320 miles) heavy- haulage railroad through Cameroon and a deep water port for bulk iron ore carriers, Sundance said April 6. 

“We’ve had our technical teams in China pretty well full- time for over three weeks now going through and explaining to the potential partners how we made up” the study costs, said Casello. The company last year signed an initial accord with China Harbour Engineering Co. and China Rail Construction Co. to study building the port and rail. 

Sundance may use China Development Bank Corp. and Export- Import Bank of China to help arrange financing, given the existing relationships Sichuan Hanlong, Casello said. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Elisabeth Behrmann in Sydney at ebehrmann1@bloomberg.net 

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Hobbs at ahobbs4@bloomberg.net 
.


----------



## LifeChoices (18 May 2011)

A few buyers coming into this one and some good volume this afternoon.


----------



## LRG (23 May 2011)

News in AFR today summarised:

Iron ore producer Sundance Resources has said five Chinese firms have expressed interested in a joint venture at the A$4.4 billion Mbalam project in Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.  "I still want to make a decision by June 30, but only if we've been through the right amount of due diligence," Sundance chief executive Giulio Casello said.  Sundance said last week it would not give up more than 50 percent of the development.  Page 17.


----------



## Johnny Utah (30 May 2011)

*FED:Sundance not in takeover talks with Hanlon*

   SYDNEY, May 30 AAP - Iron ore developer Sundance Resources Ltd 
has refuted a report that its majority shareholder Hanlong Mining 
is considering a full takeover of the company.
   Sundance said in a statement that it was not in talks with 
Hanlong regarding a full takeover.
   The Australian Financial Review reported on Monday that Hanlong 
was "exploring a number of potential deals with Sundance, including 
a full takeover, and that it is keeping all options open as it 
moves through due diligence."
   Shares in Sundance were up 4.11 per cent at 38 cents at 1450 
AEST.
   "Sundance continues to consider Hanlong's decision to become a 
major shareholder, a further indication of Chinese interest and 
recognition in the validity of Sundance's strategy to develop the 
Mbalam iron ore project," Sundance said.
   "Consistent with previous announcements, Sundance is not 
currently in discussions regarding a full takeover and continues 
its ongoing discussions with several prospective strategic 
partners."
   Sundance is developing the $US4.7 billion ($A4.39 billion) 
Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.
   AAP nls/jmc


----------



## aman (1 June 2011)

if say a single chinese company were to push for a complete take over, what would that roughly mean for the SP?
just food for thought, although i have not the faintest idea!


----------



## Lootius (2 June 2011)

aman said:


> if say a single chinese company were to push for a complete take over, what would that roughly mean for the SP?
> just food for thought, although i have not the faintest idea!




He has specified in the past (as per company website) that the company would not be interested in a takeover or giving more than 50% control of the company to a partner. In a recent previous announcement also the company said they would likely have a decision by June 30.
Any progression would be good for the SP.

I sold off early last month but have jumped back in anticipating the partnership news.


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## aman (2 June 2011)

i was just talking hypothetically. im well aware that their intention is not to depart with over 50% of the company. i'm just curious as to what someone out there thinks a takeover would do to the SP, i'm waiting NOT on it to actually happen.


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## mr. jeff (2 June 2011)

aman said:


> i was just talking hypothetically. im well aware that their intention is not to depart with over 50% of the company. i'm just curious as to what someone out there thinks a takeover would do to the SP, i'm waiting NOT on it to actually happen.




have a look around the posts here, particularly around #1916.
these will give you an idea of the range of prices that SDL will be looking at in the future. 
When you re-read this stuff, it looks comical that the SP has come back this much since. 
After all this hype and disappointment, and considering a capital raising  has been conducted, the pressure is mounting on the management side of the project. They have resource, they have the plans to exploit.
Impatient sellers will be leaking out by now and particularly if a further crunch comes over the next week or so w.r.t Greece's debt loads. 
It could be considered the very best time to start loading up on this stock when further weakness comes - when you look at the potential earnings, and barring a serious global (or local to SDL) problem it does look very attractive if you were to hold on for a year - there will be a lot of investors who won't want to miss the train and will be watching closely from the sidelines. Why not a hostile takeover target?

As far as prices for SDL shares go, well anyone could guess, you could ask the Bernanke he is very good with that sort of thing.


----------



## batgirl (2 June 2011)

Long time reader, first time poster. Thanks for this, I have just come on board with the stock in a big way, and understand that end of the month is crunch time for partnership deal?? Anyone else got a better idea about timing on this? Sorry if this has been answered elsewhere. Newby. :


----------



## nioka (4 June 2011)

batgirl said:


> Long time reader, first time poster. Thanks for this, I have just come on board with the stock in a big way, and understand that end of the month is crunch time for partnership deal?? Anyone else got a better idea about timing on this? Sorry if this has been answered elsewhere. Newby. :




Six weeks ago I posted,  

"This is the start of the massive dilution that I have talked about as being necessary for SDL to advance towards their goals. I still will continue to hold SDL but I'm not expecting it to be my best investment ever. This may prove to be a good time to buy though. DYOR.

From my post earlier this month.
"If there is one thing that I have learnt over the years it is this;"High prices lead to eventual overproduction and low prices" Often very low and uneconomic prices. That will be SDL's second hurdle. The first hurdle that it hasn't yet overcome is funding. It will get funded but as yet the conditions and the cost of that funding are yet to be announced. When I know the funding details I wll decide whether to stay or go." "

And my view has not changed.


----------



## LRG (16 June 2011)

from west australia news 11/06/11:


Within the next three weeks, Sundance Resources hopes to secure a strategic partner to help develop its $US4.7 billion ($4.4 billion) Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.

A successful end to the partner search would trigger a flurry of activity for Sundance, headlined by the start of construction of the massive project this year so that a timetable of first iron ore shipments by late 2014 can be met.

For Sundance chairman George Jones, sticking to the Mbalam project's ambitious timetable would be a fitting tribute to the efforts and dedication shown by the company's late managing director Don Lewis and his board of directors.

As Mr Jones, who co-founded Sundance and appointed the directors who died last June, said in the days after the crash, "they've given their lives for this company. Those of us that are left have a responsibility to do something about it".

And Mr Jones and Sundance's new managing director, Giulio Casello, have left no stone unturned over the past year to ensure the Mbalam dream becomes reality.

Slated to become one of west Africa's first and most profitable iron ore developments, the Mbalam project includes two mines either side of the Cameroon-Congo border, 580km of railway and a deepwater port at Kribi, on Cameroon's Atlantic coast.

Production would be 35 million tonnes a year, worth $5.6 billion based on today's iron ore price.

Sundance says despite the big development cost, Mbalam should pay for itself within three years.

"It is the foundations that Don and the team left behind that have been built on," Mr Jones said yesterday.


Therefore by 1 July - we will be on a winner - supposedly


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## batgirl (20 June 2011)

Thanks for this - I'm still sitting - looking promising!


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## aman (20 June 2011)

LRG said:


> Therefore by 1 July - we will be on a winner - supposedly




supposedly? Not exactly! If some solid news was in the pipeline the SP would start a positive march in mere anticipation... Well at least more positive than it has been recently, so to expect any magical jump come July 1st is rather unreasonable.
Nothing wrong in hoping though..


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## LRG (20 June 2011)

aman said:


> supposedly? Not exactly! If some solid news was in the pipeline the SP would start a positive march in mere anticipation... Well at least more positive than it has been recently, so to expect any magical jump come July 1st is rather unreasonable.
> Nothing wrong in hoping though..




Not necessarily - that would be leaked (insider) info if that was the case.

So, when the news comes it will be a total surprise (if it confirms the project has funds to build the infra) to the market and the SP will spike.

Conversely, if there is silence from the board into July, then they will totally lose any credibility they have left, given the last timeline given - for this the most important announcement due in SDL's lifecycle. It is now at 33 c 50% retracement from the high in January.  Hanlong bought near 20% at 44 c off Talbot group - they will not be happy if it does not fly very very soon!


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## aman (20 June 2011)

in this case, indeed necessarily - simply because it has been forecast this way by the board, so anticipatory buyers always get jump on. its pretty standard, if good news is "expected" then money comes in.

and how much of the funding partnership is already factored into the price? sure the news of "who" it will be will push the SP, however, by how much?

if you're after an example of an anticipatory rally, read into MEO from around 6 months ago. They had "surprisingly high pressure levels" from an untapped gas well, the SP went up considerably, and only once they confirmed the well was in fact a dud the SP came crashing back down.


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## bob99 (21 June 2011)

I find it quite amusing reading through all the posts on SDL. There is everything from blind optimism, to the strangest of conspiracies, to secret hand-shakes already being done and we (the shareholder is none the wiser), the pessimist in the corner saying "yeah right ... as if". There must be a lot of people who are hoping to pay off their mortgages, or buy that Ferrari they have always wanted with SDL shares as the history of this company is appalling - truly it's appalling, the number of times they have said something is forth coming by the end of ... and nothing happens because they have an excuse. If anything is coming then it won’t be in 10 days (and counting (down)) and it will not be all the wonderful news you think it is. The share base will be diluted to such a point that the rise will be worthless. So, good  luck to you all who hope a miracle is coming on the 1st of July. I will add, I hope I am wrong, yet history – with this mob say’s otherwise.

I would add that a recent post suggested if something was coming it would already be out there - to which another suggested this would be insider knowledge. Well, given the past "leaks" from/about SDL the idea that anything coming would already be out there holds a little more than water. They "leak" like a sieve when it suits and the flow of information is tighter than a fishes ... when their back as to the wall, like now. So, given the only comments are the sorts of puff pieces that a few of you have put faith in, such as the rehash of the West Oz piece then I fear all will be at a loss.

P.S. Yes I own these shares, LOADS of them, yet brought in at 7 cents, so I have my mortgage paid off, no matter what happens.


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## Lootius (21 June 2011)

And the speculation continues...

A little positivity, patience and flexibility comes to mind.
If deadlines come and go no-doubt we'll be briefed as to why.
I hold SDL as part of a diversified portfolio and have faith in their ability to get this
company producing in one form or another.

And yes my mortgage is paid off, but i wouldn't mind another.


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## Slopes (21 June 2011)

bob99 said:


> P.S. Yes I own these shares, LOADS of them, yet brought in at 7 cents, so I have my mortgage paid off, no matter what happens.



Will your mortgage be still paid off if it drops to below 7 cents?


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## aman (22 June 2011)

Slopes said:


> Will your mortgage be still paid off if it drops to below 7 cents?



add some genuine wit next time.

can anyone explain what was with the SP hike a few months ago when it peaked? why the hell did this happen so steadily, and then dissipate?


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## zzaaxxss3401 (22 June 2011)

aman said:


> add some genuine wit next time.
> 
> can anyone explain what was with the SP hike a few months ago when it peaked? why the hell did this happen so steadily, and then dissipate?



Are you referring to the price hike starting around November last year? There have been several inaccurate reports finding their way into the media - take a look at the following two "Response to ASX Price Query" statements:
http://www.sundanceresources.com.au...px/PDFs/1775-27526396/ResponsetoASXPriceQuery
http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1799-54528325/ResponsetoASXQuery


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## LRG (22 June 2011)

Houston we have a problem.

No news from SDL board - very strange, the silence is deafening.

You would think they will have to either a) call a trading halt soon / tmw b) make an annon soon / tmw (enen just to say - we are nearly there just wait a couple of weeks??) or; c) do nothing & this is heading back to 7 cents!   

Maybe we will make money now by shorting  SDL - wish I had done that a 60 cents! (with the wisdom of hindsight).

Now 50+% retracement since the high in Jan 2011 of 66.5 - the board / Hanalong must be panicing or maybe they just don't care?

I am absolutely stumped by what is / not going on. The SP was down to 32.5 at 4 pm and somehow picked up 1 cent to close at 43.5 on the auction?


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## LRG (22 June 2011)

LRG said:


> Houston we have a problem.
> 
> No news from SDL board - very strange, the silence is deafening.
> 
> ...




Correction to close at 33.5 cents


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## LRG (23 June 2011)

from overseas news:
Nouvelles / Mbalam Iron project rekindled...
22/06/2011 
Mbalam Iron project rekindled/ Second phase of anti-corruption campaign launched

Mbalam Iron project rekindled

Construction work for Mbalam Iron project in the East region will soon begin. 

New officials of Sundance Resources limited and Cam Iron, two companies manning the project were received in audience by the Minister of Industries, Mines and Technological Development - Badel Ndanga Ndinga. 

The executives of both companies say they are pursuing negotiations with government to effectively begin the project. In the process, they have pledged to assist Cameroon improve its infrastructural development through the construction of transport facilities including a railway network and a deep sea port.

Claris Achu


----------



## LRG (23 June 2011)

More news reports from Africa:

http://www.cameroon-tribune.cm/inde...-a-la-fin-de-lannee&catid=2:economie&Itemid=3

June 22, 2011 National - Economy (Today EST)
A delegation of Sundance Resources Ltd is in Cameroon to meet with authorities and provide an update on the progress of the project.
"George Jones, chairman of the board of Sundance Resources Ltd and the accompanying delegation are in Cameroon to reassure the government that the proposed Iron Cam is about to change phase. It moves from theory to practice. " So said yesterday, Roger Bogner, Chief Executive Officer of Cam Iron, the company under Cameroonian law responsible for the operation of iron Mbalam. According to him, the whole organization of the project is in place. It is waiting for the conclusion of the mining agreement and signing of agreements with strategic partners to begin construction on the site.
The financing of transport infrastructure, including the construction of the railway to enable the delivery of mines operating site to the coast of Cameroon has so far delayed the signing of the mining agreement. According to the Minister of Industry, Mines and Technological Development, Badel Ndanga Ndinga a formula has been found that could fix the government and project proponents. Cam Iron has just completed the feasibility study. It shows that "the development prospects for residents, businesses and countries are very interesting."
The impact of the operation of the iron will of Mbalam corporate taxes, royalties, wages, tariff revenues, the purchase of local goods and services through outsourcing, etc..
The project is estimated at 484 million tonnes of rich iron and 2.32 billion tonnes of iron enrichment. The project cost is estimated at 2,000 billion CFA francs. Financing operations are part of the agreements being negotiated with the strategic partner. Roger Bogner said that the Chinese experience could be sought because China is the biggest consumer of iron in the world. For this reason also that Asia is a major outlet for iron Mbalam.
Ultimately, it is envisaged the creation of a processing plant at Kribi, so that the premises may have the raw material at hand.


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## LRG (26 June 2011)

More news from march on chinese investment in sdl:

Sichuan O'Hanlon of iron ore in Africa to spend 1.2 billion to swallow the "giant"
UpdateTime:2011-3-22 9:14:00 | Reading(94)

In recent years, overseas Chinese and has repeatedly received mine Lung Group, M & A funds total about 32 billion yuan.
**With this acquisition, Chinese dragon has a large African iron ore company sdl a 19% stake, making it the largest single shareholder.The project is expected to reach 100 million post-production scale of -2 million tons, when O'Hanlon will also be among the ranks of the world's five largest iron ore producer 
O'Hanlon received mine overseas territory of the Group have added an important weight.March 21, Chinese Dragon Group disclosed to the author, O'Hanlon mining investment about 2 billion Australian dollars (equivalent to 1.2 billion yuan or so), the acquisition of major iron ore companies in Africa sundanceresourcesltd (referred to as sdl) 16% of the shares.sdl project is one of the few undeveloped world one of the large iron ore is expected ten billion tons of iron ore resources, will strengthen the Group's iron ore Hanlong right to speak.
**Acquisition: is expected to reach ten billion tons of iron ore resources 
According to O'Hanlon Group, the relevant parties, O'Hanlon sdl company mining the 16% acquisition of the shares, plus 3% of the shares previously owned, sdl now has a 19% stake in the company's largest single shareholder.
**sdl is a large Australian Stock Exchange-listed iron ore exploration company, worth about 1.4 billion Australian dollars, major projects in Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville at the junction of Africa "iron triangle" of iron ore core region, the current proven resource volume of 2.8 billion tons, including 62% of direct shipping grade hematite 420 million tons and some high-quality magnetite exploration area has only a very small area of �​exploration licenses all a 
Points, with the further expansion of exploration work is expected to total amount of resources is expected to reach ten billion tons or more.
|Nextpage|
Goal: iron ore is expected to among the world's top five business 
It is understood, sdl has completed the project pre-feasibility study report, a formal feasibility study report is expected to be completed at the end of March 2011.According to sdl development plan, the company plans to build a 480 km of railway and a 30-ton deep-water port, the total investment about 45 billion U.S.dollars, early in 2015 the project reached production, annual production capacity of one to reach 5000 tons, annual profit estimated to reach 30 billion U.S.dollars.Surrounding the project through the integration, the project is expected to reach 100 million later -2 million tons of production scale, when the company will also be among the ranks of the world's five largest iron ore producer.
**"Select a world-class iron ore exploration company as our primary investment objectives, foreign investment has always been our main tasks of team work, a successful investment is expected to O'Hanlon Mining sdl into 
Power sharing a world-class iron ore business in the development process in the growth of valuable experience and wealth."Hanlon, Managing Director, Dr.Xiao Hui Mining sdl future development of confidence in the future.
**Meaning: to provide a new iron ore supply channels 
The success of sdl investment group following the Australia Han Long Molybdenum Molybdenum Company and American General in the iron ore companies to invest in the field after another major investment in the implementation of actions, the development of iron ore on Chinese Dragon Group investment plan with milestone significance.
**Hon Ambrose Lung Group Chairman of the Board, said the growing Chinese demand for iron ore, iron ore in China's total imports in 2010 reached 6.5 million tons."In this relationship, and supply imbalance in the pricing mechanism is not fully market-oriented period, O'Hanlon sdl successful investment company, for the provision of new supply of iron ore in China has strategic importance." Ambrose said, Chinese Dragon Group With this acquisition, China and the world able to bring more high-quality iron ore resources.


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## Piggy Bank (26 June 2011)

LRG said:


> More news from march on chinese investment in sdl:
> 
> Sichuan O'Hanlon of iron ore in Africa to spend 1.2 billion to swallow the "giant"
> UpdateTime:2011-3-22 9:14:00 | Reading(94)




Isn't this news over three months old?


----------



## aman (26 June 2011)

yep. not exactly up-to-the-minute hey LRG.

luckily the date was the first thing i read, and not the beefy article.


----------



## The Muffin Man (27 June 2011)

LRG said:


> Houston we have a problem.
> 
> No news from SDL board - very strange, the silence is deafening.
> 
> ...




You are aware of what is happening in World markets, and more close to home, the ASX yes? In wouldn't underestimate the effects of a jittery investment community on speculative stocks.


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## bob99 (29 June 2011)

First things first, I think SDL is well beyond being a speculative stock. A speculative stock is one which is hoped, or those who hold it have an over optimistic view of it returning "above average gains", although I think this could be argued for some of you with your "hopes" for SDL. Further, it is a stock which is typically appreciating in value without any foundation or analysis to support it. SDL would be contra to this with a proven resource.

All that said, who wants to offer odd's on the July 1st (or June 30th) excuses for no announcement?

1. Because of the "tragic" events of earlier this year the program of negotiations has been set back a few months. Personally, the death of board members has been played too much now.
2. Global financial markets are in a state of flux and hence it will take some more time to finalise negotiations - read in: the market must rebound before anyone gives us money.
3. I dont know of any floods in Cameroon so that cant be used - dam!
4. I dont know of any internal strife in Cameroon so that cant be used - dam!

Any other excuses? 

5. Maybe the Chinese no longer want any iron ore, they are going 100% Green from 1st of July. How would that be for a statement?

Its all to quiet, with the leaky ship SDL news would already be out, and there isnt any, and I am sorry to those who are posting the 4 and 6 month old illiterate news stories, that’s not news.

Once again, call it the pessimist in, and I hope I am proved wrong, yet this company - those who apparently run/manage it, are starting to look too much like a long term failure.


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## Crom (29 June 2011)

Hi Bob,

You jumped the gun by 30 mins mate.

I hear the frustrations re this stock and also the tremendous hype that gets floated around.  I do hold but as a long term play in my super fund.  Certainly not a stock to be held against a loan.

If partners and infrastructure work are settled/commenced as per todays announcement before the end of the year, then hopefully interest will be reflected again in the share price.

Additionally, I think SDL has been hit hard by tax loss selling, as many people jumped in based on hype at higher prices.  Other forums (HC in particular), have had non stop ramping on this stock no doubt influencing many to invest/jump in before they get left behind.  Anyway, my view is that July should see some SP increase, and momentum will gather on further announcements and definitely on infrastructure commencements.

It is good to see though the committment of the two Govt's involved.

A huge project and therefore a long term investment.

All the best

CROM


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## bob99 (29 June 2011)

Crom said:


> Hi Bob,
> 
> You jumped the gun by 30 mins mate.
> 
> ...




I was just about to go and do some work, read your post and went and read the announcement. Unfortunately there is nothing in there about end of June announcement for a partner. Your comment about an announcement by the end of year is an odd one. I don’t know if you mean end of the FY (as in 2 days) or end of the year (Dec 31st 2011). I know they mention construction at the end of the yr, yet thats not what all the hopeful's out there have been waiting for.

SDL have said it will all be in place come June 30th 2011, well that’s been the line since they last changed it.

I read the announcement and there is nothing new in there. Its shortlisted some "preferred potential partners".

Questions first?

1. What the hell is a "preferred" partner? I have worked in many industries for a long time and being at the front of many international agreements and there is no such thing as a "preferred" partner, well when it comes to shortlisting. You either shortlist, or you don’t!
2. Interesting use of the word "potential".

Funny how these "Mining Conventions" still seem to have not been finalised, as was suggested in their last presentation.

The so called discussions with prospective strategic partners over the past few months is nothing new. It’s always been said. In fact the last 5 “strategic partner announcements” have said the same and this is going back 12 months.

The "Governments" have always apparently been keen to get this moving. So nothing new.

The second last paragraph is interesting: "Sundance is very pleased with the progress that has been achieved in recent months and looks forward to successfully concluding arrangements for the introduction of a strategic partner to the Project. The Company will advise the Market as soon as something sufficiently binding or capable of announcement is available."

What progress? Nothing is new, nothing has been announced, recent months have seen nothing different announced, and they have always - as I would expect - looked forward to successfully concluding arrangements. They would be fool’s (well bigger fool’s) if they didn’t.

So what is this update all about? This is a no news piece of news.

My problem with SDL is that they were supposed to announce a partner - within the next 2 days (including today). They have not, and this piece of fluff just means, in my view, we are months away from any announcement that might have a real baring on the future of this company.

Possibly SDL want a quick dash in the SP in the last few days of the FY, yet this won’t wash with people who have a critical eye on this stock.

Shame really, I so wanted my face rubbed in my pessimism of my previous 2 posts. Ohhh, I would add, should something be coming – there would have been be a trading halt, not this no news piece of news.

P.S. I am still holding out hope to be proved wrong.


----------



## aman (29 June 2011)

+ 1 bob99,
Super pointless article, purely regurgitation. yet  it still saw a jump in the SP by a few percent..
Who knows what to make of the June deadline, especially now with such an unbinding article coming a day before. says to me nothing will happen for a while (other than an extended "deadline"), and this article is designed to inspire a few more among SDL's wavering supporters to keep the faith..


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## Lootius (29 June 2011)

Agreed, no new information in today's announcement. 

That's ok, i'm a patient person. With the jittery world economy and the Australian market reaction recently, i still see good long term potential regardless of what others choose to think and plan to hold at least till production. Even if they miss this deadline for negotiations it still doesn't bother me, provided they don't fall behind too much without genuine cause.


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## The Muffin Man (29 June 2011)

I wonder how closely some follow the stock. GC said in an interview probably 3-4 weeks ago that a 5th possible partner had joined discussions regarding Mbalam, and that while this possible partner was still completing it's due diligence there would be no startegic partner announcement. Common sense really, anyone following the stock wasn't holding their breath due to the information imparted in that recent interview. bob99, what happens when you are on the point, leading in whatever it is you do, and another player walks into the room and expresses interest in your project? Do you simply ask them to leave the room because you don't want whiny forum users becoming upset that a target date has been missed?

Crom's reference to the end of the year is regarding the time in which the FID will be made and construction starting.


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## bob99 (30 June 2011)

The Muffin Man said:


> I wonder how closely some follow the stock. GC said in an interview probably 3-4 weeks ago that a 5th possible partner had joined discussions regarding Mbalam, and that while this possible partner was still completing it's due diligence there would be no startegic partner announcement. Common sense really, anyone following the stock wasn't holding their breath due to the information imparted in that recent interview. bob99, what happens when you are on the point, leading in whatever it is you do, and another player walks into the room and expresses interest in your project? Do you simply ask them to leave the room because you don't want whiny forum users becoming upset that a target date has been missed?
> 
> Crom's reference to the end of the year is regarding the time in which the FID will be made and construction starting.




I know what you mean Muffin, it’s a real dam nuisance when pesky forum users voice their unhappiness at the constant lying, deceit, mismanagement and misleading statements by company executives. It’s a REAL dam nuisance, when those forum users won’t just allow the sycophantic regurgitation of old news to pass as new news and actually demand a little better governance from those who run the companies they invest in.

Bloody hell, those dam pesky forum users.

As for your other question, the answer is a simple yes. You have a process you follow it and then you close that process, you don’t allow a free-for-all, otherwise what is the process for, and more so where is the accountability. Ohhh, by the way, where was the announcement to the market on this fairly important change?

There is a difference with those pesky forum users who whinge, and that is they rely on the legal, get it: legal, release's by companies to inform investors and the wider community as to what is being done, not trawling the internet to find obscure interviews with members of staff and then repeating this as though its news. I'm afraid it’s not.

SDL, in my view could be a good company, it could be an even bigger company, yet with those who are currently sailing her towards the ice-berg I fear I already know the outcome. They made a movie about a similar plot line, and we all know what happened.

Just accountability, a little 'proper' governance, and above all "real" news on occasions would be a good start.


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## Pythagerous (14 July 2011)

Something's Cooking hit 38.5c on strong volume.


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## LRG (14 July 2011)

Pythagerous said:


> Something's Cooking hit 38.5c on strong volume.




Maybe just maybe they are about to sign a JV deal with chinese -sinosteel?

Remember they just pulled out of murchison deal as it all got too hard, carbon tax, cost blow outs, approval delays etc etc.

Maybe??

Hopefully they are jving someone soon


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## LRG (17 July 2011)

Things are shaping up for another pretty good week SP wise for sundance.

Seems to be far more buyers stacked up then sellers.

Possibly see 45c + this week?

Should be getting closer to a trading halt and then JV announcement in the next week or two.

If not the recent gains from 30c low to 40c on friday would probably wash away.

Momentum seems to be holding up.


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## fxiang (17 July 2011)

LRG said:


> Things are shaping up for another pretty good week SP wise for sundance.
> 
> Seems to be far more buyers stacked up then sellers.
> 
> ...





 Cameroon president is going to visit Chine this week, hopefully some deals will be sealed associated with sdl project.


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## Crom (18 July 2011)

Anticipation is certainly building and one gets the feeling from the strong buying and reduced selling that a JV announcement is certainly in the wings.

Sentiment is also very positive and strong in regards this stock and I'm glad I bought another big parcel when the SP was down due to negative sentiment about the lack of announcement!

This has always been a LT stock imo and I have never doubted it's future in terms of LT reward.  A great stock in the old super fund!


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## Crom (18 July 2011)

Hold the phone batman, Hanlong have made a 100% bid for SDL at a very opportunistic price of only 50 cents a share.  Thankfully management will reject this and seek a far greater price more reflecting true value.

As Bill Laurie would say, 'it's all happenning'!


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## Johnny Utah (18 July 2011)

SYDNEY, July 18 AAP - Sundance Resources Ltd has received a 
takeover offer, valuing the Africa-focused iron ore miner at $1.44 
billion.
   Hanlong Mining Investment, which already has an 18.6 per cent 
stake in Sundance, has offered 50 cents per share cash for the 
miner.
   Sundance shares last traded at 40 cents a share, making the 
takeover offer a 25 per cent premium.
*The shares will start trading at 1100 AEST.*
   Sundance's board was advising shareholders to take no action at 
this stage, the Perth-based miner said in a statement on Monday.
   "The terms of the offer do not provide adequate value of 
certainty to Sundance shareholders," the company said.
   The board would discuss the terms of the proposal with Hanlong.
   Sundance would continue its negotiations with potential 
strategic partners for a joint venture to develop its Mbalam iron 
ore project in the Republics of Cameroon and Congo.


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## LRG (18 July 2011)

That is a week takeover offer. 50 cents what a joke.

Worth $1.54 now on NPV calc.

But we dont want that, cause in 2015/16 when it goes into production the SP will be in the $'s more than likely.

50 cents - not happy JAN!

Where is Sinosteel????


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## ocelot (18 July 2011)

is anyone buying today?


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## LRG (18 July 2011)

ocelot said:


> is anyone buying today?




Trading of SDL is delayed until 11 am because of this low ball shocking offer.

good luck


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## LRG (18 July 2011)

just opened trading at 49.5 - 50 cents.

See what happens at the close??

Still not happy JAN!


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## alexc2005 (18 July 2011)

How are you guys not happy?

I'm confused.

The price has just jumped 25%? Wouldn't you be stoked?


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## ocelot (18 July 2011)

The pop is over I am disappointed it didnt get past .50c


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## alexc2005 (18 July 2011)

ocelot said:


> The pop is over I am disappointed it didnt get past .50c




so I'm guessing you all class this share as severely undervalued if you are unhappy with making 25% overnight?


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## notting (18 July 2011)

*Sundance Resources*

Where's Sinosteel????  As if.
It's the same company China inc.
Sometimes China inc makes low ball offers to keep the price up so they put off genuine alternatives, take board positions and then make deals to suit themselves.  They also figure no one else will come along with the price up and costs to come, they can increase their holding keep the price up, suck in the share holders with capital raising, having inflated the price so then China inc doesn't have to do the real funding and their happy and off they go with the goodies from the ground to make money out of what they make it into.

Sundance needs plenty of help to get this happening and the Chinese seem to be the only willing partners at this point.  Board is right to fight the pricks off but that can be hard when they need them as partners.

Is that  reason not to be happy?


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## aman (18 July 2011)

why has sundance responded by saying that they'll 'look into the terms of the bid', despite earlier saying they are not even interested in take overs.
Is it just because they want to double check the take-over's legitimacy, or is this because they're running out of options and they're now considering a take over?


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## Jewels (18 July 2011)

Media coverage starting to hot up.

Just wondering how much would you be prepared to accept as an offer.  Right now , at this point in the game anything less than a dollar must be considered a joke surely.
Would be interested in what the forum considers a "sell price"? 



.http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/18/sundance-idUSL3E7II00I20110718

UPDATE 1-Sundance gets $1.5 billion bid proposal from Hanlong



Sun Jul 17, 2011 9:18pm EDT

* Hanlong wants all of African iron ore developer Sundance

* Says will pay $1.5 billion, or A$0.50 a share

* Sundance says take no action

* Sundance questions adequacy of bid (Adds details)

SYDNEY, July 18 (Reuters) - Sichuan Hanlong Group of China on Monday bid A$0.50 a share for West African iron ore exploration company Sundance Resources , valuing the company at A$1.4 billion ($1.5 billion), in the latest move by the private conglomerate to broaden its reach in global resources.

It's also the second takeover offer in a week lodged by Hanlong for an Australia-listed company exploring for minerals in Africa after it bid A$144 million on June 11 for Bannerman Resources , which is looking for uranium in Namibia.

Hanlong is already Sundance's majority shareholder with 18.6 percent of the firm.

Sundance's board is recommending its shareholders take no action until it meets with Hanlong over the terms of the bid, which Sundance deems inadequate, according to a company statement.

The A$0.50 a share offer represents a 25 percent premium to Sundance closing price of A$0.40 on Friday.

The shares jumped 27.5 percent after resuming trade at 0200 GMT.

Sundance has made no secret it's seeking Chinese investors to help fund its $4.7 billion Mbalam iron ore project straddling the republics of Cameroon and Congo.

Sundance Managing Director Giulio Casello in March told Reuters in an interview Sundance was in talks with Chinese steel mills as candidates to invest in the project.

Beijing has been pushing its steel makers to consolidate domestic steelmaking and reduce reliance on sector behemoths Vale , Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton , which together control about 70 percent of seaborne-traded ore.

China has plenty of its own iron ore. But much of it is low grade, meaning it is cheaper to import ore that has higher iron content from countries such as Australia, Brazil and Africa.

Sundance says its ore it suitable for direct shipping to steel mills and that fully developed the Mbalam project could yield 35 million tonnes of iron ore a year.

That's nearly equal to the annual iron ore production of AngloAmerican in Africa, much of it through its majority stake in Kumba Iron Ore .

Hanlong is also the majority shareholder in Moly Mines , which is developing a molybdenum and copper mine in Australia and Marenica Energy , which is looking for uranium, also in Australia

In November 2010, Hanlong signed a cooperation agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China for loans of up to $1.5 billion to fund its overseas expansion plans.

Outside of mining, Hanlong has interests in energy, real estate, pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and technology.


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## notting (18 July 2011)

Expect to see many confused messages coming out.
Their good at offering underhanded payouts to board members too, one way or another. If the member ever do something they don't like well - Remember a guy called Stern Hu???
How did they manage to take all Rios computers as part of their investigation!!
HHmmmm corporate espionage right out in the open.  Wheres Rupert? News was quiet on all that given what it was.  

We should have been protesting in the streets.

Wonder whats on the table for Stern today?

They pay they own you.


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## aman (18 July 2011)

give me anything above 0.80c and im outta here a winner!


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## Jewels (18 July 2011)

In retrospect the procurement of the Talbot Groups holdings by Hanlong was a master stroke.  Call me cynical, but if you hold 18% of the company, you pretty much control what the bid price is likely to be accepted.  Posco will be out of the picture now, I expect the Talbot Groups holdings were picked up to block a similar bid from Posco.
We have plenty of cash in the bank at the moment, to allow the corporate shananigans to play out, however the one thing that has been really bothering me since the DFS:
Didn't the Cameroon Government have an option to buy a further 10% of Sundance triggered by the submission of the DFS? Now I seem to remember at the time calculating their buy in at about 80 million AUD$. Unless I've missed something (and if I have please enlighten me) They are yet to exercise this option.  WHY?????
Sundance have since done a placement to raise a similar sum, was the placement a "White Knight" rather than raising working capitol?
I cant see Rio, Vale or BHP wanting to make a counter bid, when Hanlong already own 18% of the Company, I am sure that they would simply hold out until an acceptable "Chinese" bid was made.
So whilst I don't think that we have seen the end of the fun and games yet, the only way that I can see shareholders realizing an acceptable return is to reject this offer totally, and hopefully get the management focused on arranging a JV partner.
But it does beg the question:
" Why would you pay $3 Billion plus for 50% of a project, when you can take over the whole company for less than $2 Billion?"
Ciao, J.


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## notting (18 July 2011)

You mean the stroke that dropped the plane out of the sky?


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## Trevoru (18 July 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> so I'm guessing you all class this share as severely undervalued if you are unhappy with making 25% overnight?




How long have you been holding?  SDL had a SP of 0.625 in January 2011 - they traded at around 50c 2 or 3 years ago if you check - 25% is only relevant to Friday close - not what they've been, what they should be, or what they could be.
IMO - cheers TU


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## snowking (18 July 2011)

Trevoru said:


> How long have you been holding?  SDL had a SP of 0.625 in January 2011 - they traded at around 50c 2 or 3 years ago if you check - 25% is only relevant to Friday close - not what they've been, what they should be, or what they could be.
> IMO - cheers TU




its high was at .665. It would seem that Hanlong are taking advantage of the market sentiment at the moment. Great for Hanlong, not so great for Sundance shareholders.


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## Trevoru (18 July 2011)

snowking said:


> its high was at .665. It would seem that Hanlong are taking advantage of the market sentiment at the moment. Great for Hanlong, not so great for Sundance shareholders.




Thanks - I think I put in the "Open" - also went back to 2007 where it traded up to 0.80

Looking forward to next few weeks and beyond - I'm happy to sit and wait a few years for production to come on line - hopefully management don't cave and those that have held for a number of years, and those prepared to back the company can get to see where SDL can get to.
Cheers - TU


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## notting (18 July 2011)

Maybe you guys should look at RCI to see how Chinese take overs go.  When an Indian company was bidding for RCI the Chinese came in and made dummy bids to knock up the Indian one to about .515c which depended on due diligence. The Indians then walked away after due diligence and the the Chinese went dead silent.  RCI fell down to .125c!! when the Indians walked away and whilst it was doing that a Chinese director - Wu Pun Yun increased his holding massively to 50.4%holding. 
 The Chinese came back after 6 months and made a hostile bid at 25c!  They had to raise it to 30c because 25 was against the law!!! to come back so low so soon or something like that.  They are now lapping up stocks at that level at present of 30c.  RCI has asked it's share holders who hardly exist any more to reject it.  

What will happen to Sundance?  Don't know because nothing happens the way you think it will on the market.  But, my guess is that, in the absence of a bid from a non Chinese inc company which is highly unlikely, gradual decline amidst sneaky, Chinese accumulation.  Then in 6 months it might be worth taking a bite but the Chinese may be able to control through board arm bending and live monkey brain eating parties. So will not bother to do anything more.


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## alexc2005 (18 July 2011)

Trevoru said:


> How long have you been holding?  SDL had a SP of 0.625 in January 2011 - they traded at around 50c 2 or 3 years ago if you check - 25% is only relevant to Friday close - not what they've been, what they should be, or what they could be.
> IMO - cheers TU




Not holding at all sorry. Just been watching for the past few months.

So i guess i havent watched it come down.

Fair enough though.


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## LRG (21 July 2011)

High of 54 cents today with close at 52 cents.

AFA and others are reporting the rumour mill that XSTRATA may come in to play with a Hanlong (chinese 16% hloder) knock out bid.

Possibly a JV through to production in lieu of the (unpopular with LT holders) full 100% low ball 50c per share takeover offer by Hanlong.

The game of chess is going on in the back rooms.  Lets hope for the best deal for LT retail shareholders in lieu of CHECKMATE by Hanlong who may end up with the biggest bargain of the decade if they are able to pull this low ball offer off.


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## Crom (22 July 2011)

Yesterday the Australian wrote of a possible bid from XSTRATA, and today they write that the chances of a rival bid are fading.

Both Sundance and Hanlong meeting with Cameroon president Paul Biya.

As a long term buyer of SDL I too hope for the best deal.  Certainly the 50 cent price is waaayyyy too low.

Anyway, one thing about following SDL is that it is always interesting!


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## notting (22 July 2011)

*Sundance Resources*

An alternate bidder will have to have very deep pockets after paying 1.5Billion and needing another 3 (+Blowout) Billion for development. Hanlons 18% holding will also be obstructive. To be fair to shareholders who are prepared to wait, SDL should take it's time and not rush into anything. 
India and other developing nations need iron oar too and demand isn't going away soon. Combined financing would be more valuable to share holders over the longer term rather than being subject totally to merciless Chinese. 
Xtrata would be an ideal alternate buyer for SDL.  Did Xtrata announce they were not interested?


----------



## nioka (24 July 2011)

For some time now I have been saying that the expectations of a lot of SDL holders were unrealistic in placing a value on SDL. They continue to value it by relating the value to the value of FMG. That is not reasonable considering the timing of both projects, the need for considerable funds to bring the SDL project to production and the soverign risk.

The 50c per share offer is low ball but I have always considered that I would exit at 60c considering my investment was timely at 10.5c. Holding beyond 60c is a reasonable proposition but I consider I can find better investments than SDL at that value.

Not what most will want to hear but that is my opinion.


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## golfmos123 (25 July 2011)

SDL looks to be running out of steam??  Volume down today compared to those of the last week, even when comparing only 1hr of trading.  Could be that with no further news of alternatives to Hanlong, the speculators building the price beyond 50c are running out of patience??


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## Trevoru (25 July 2011)

Market Depth Refresh View: Price Detail | Order Detail 
Buyers Sellers 
No. Volume Price ($) Price ($) Volume No. 
486 buyers for 32281890 units 810 sellers for 43627770 units 
Loading Market Depth... 
37 7,829,998 0.515 0.520 1,336,408 17 
26 3,865,455 0.510 0.525 3,586,878 27 
21 1,408,659 0.505 0.530 4,755,484 43 
32 2,480,172 0.500 0.535 3,240,365 49 
14 1,566,303 0.495 0.540 3,942,343 65 
25 1,864,062 0.490 0.545 3,370,366 38 
12 434,600 0.485 0.550 6,615,661 149 
23 717,136 0.480 0.555 1,042,599 22 
13 782,408 0.475 0.560 977,096 39 
15 490,201 0.470 0.565 609,172 18 

Just running out of sellers at low 50s - plenty lined up 0.55


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## tech/a (25 July 2011)

Why do you place any weight at all on Market depth?

Those who want to sell will sell at market.
Those in the line up are mainly stops Stop buy or Stop sell which have a habit of migrating when levels are close or reached.
Its a bit like reading a shadow in my opinion.

SDL is at an interesting point and is likely to pull back before testing .65 in my view.


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## LRG (2 August 2011)

Does anyone think something positive will be announced soon?

All very very quiet at the momment?


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## bob99 (4 August 2011)

LRG said:


> Does anyone think something positive will be announced soon?
> 
> All very very quiet at the momment?




Not a hope LRG. This 'micky mouse' board couldn’t find Africa on a map if it tried.

My questions would be:

1. You were expected to announce a partner by June 30th, or to put it another way, by the end of the 2nd qtr 2011. Why have you not, and when will you?
2. The cash offer - by Hanlong Group - well over 2 weeks ago has fallen a strange and very eerie deafening silence. Why has there been no update(s)? What is it that you are "looking into" with the proposed bid? Either you accept the offer - which you say undervalues the company - or you don’t! Why has there not been any market updates?
3. Are you continuing the "advanced" talks with potential partners, while you pull a fast one on shareholders in respect of the recent offer?
4. Were you aware of the Hanlong Group's moves before they were announced to the market?

Note: Of course they will answer NO, however the way this board, and previous one had been running this company it makes me wonder what they do and don’t know.

5. When will you update the market on the following:
a. At what point is those apparent "advanced" negotiations with potential partners?
b. What is happening with the "negotiations" with Hanlong group and will you be selling out this company for your 30 pieces of silver?
c. When - as you should have had them all by now - will you have the remainder of the 'permissions' in place to commence the project?

I would add I have noticed an interesting little holding increase of some institutions over the past 2 weeks. Is this because they are gearing for a blocking stake in SDL as they think something ‘fishy’ is about to come from this ‘unexpected’ approach by Hanlong Group? 

Just my end of the week rant.


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## aman (4 August 2011)

my answers.
1 - sundance hasn't announced a JVpartner because it hasn't got one. Observers have highlighted the following: why be JV partner for 2-3bil, when you could purchase sundance for 1.4bil?

2 - there have been minor updates, but not enough board commentary on the matter. either discussions are hot and they don't want to say anything for fear of jeopardizing any talks, or there isn't much more going on behind the scenes.

3 - SDL has said it is continuing talks with its other "potentials" as well as Hanlong, how'd you miss this? And the only "fast one" they're pulling over share holders is this: they're actually considering a take over - after long proclaiming that SDL is not for sale. hence the interest from potential partners can't be that strong!

4 - ... no idea.


5a - i like this question. IF there is interest from multiple potential partners, ideally (for SDL holders anyway) the board would disclose who they are and maybe even some finer details.

5b - there is a comment within the latest SDL report which says something along the lines of "would not consider a take over unless it was at least 20% higher (than the bid of 50c PS). This means the board is looking for 60c minimum.

5c - this question is also addressed somewhere. apparently the local government approvals are pending, in wait of SDL to receive approved financing...
... similarly, the approval of financing is apparently waiting for the government approvals.  bit suss on this one.

oh, and i don't see how "little holding increases" from differing institutions could have much of a blocking effect. If anything they're waiting on some good news. imo.


----------



## aman (5 August 2011)

could someone please shed some light as to how the SP has dropped to 46c, despite the company being virtually guaranteed at 50c minimum? good time to empty the pockets and get some more?


----------



## zomfgwtfbbq (6 August 2011)

aman said:


> could someone please shed some light as to how the SP has dropped to 46c, despite the company being virtually guaranteed at 50c minimum? good time to empty the pockets and get some more?




You have to realise that for one thing, with this current crisis everyone is fleeing to liquidity at the moment. 

Also you have to consider, the Mbalam project hasn't got funding and the green light to get the project up and running. If outlook appears bad, it may not even be developed at all.

My 2 cents


----------



## nioka (6 August 2011)

aman said:


> could someone please shed some light as to how the SP has dropped to 46c, despite the company being virtually guaranteed at 50c minimum? good time to empty the pockets and get some more?




There is no "guarantee" that the offer will stay at 50c. They could withdraw the offer although that isn't likely. However the chance that the offer could be increased is now highly unlikely. Luckily I sold the last of my SDL last week, I could see better returns from other shares available and there did not appear to be a rival bid coming along. Soverign risk always worried me with SDL. Many would have seen 46c now and in cash  as better than a possible 50c somewher down the track


----------



## notting (6 August 2011)

You could also look at BMN to get an idea of how Chinese raids go. BMN has a highly conditional offer of 61.5c on it and its trading today at.35c! The will Chinese examine every inch of the company with as much intimidation as possible which will likely go on for months according to the recent board announcement.
Who knows they may offer 25c after that. I have being buying that recently however so I must think it will happen.
China loves nuclear things!


----------



## The Muffin Man (6 August 2011)

bob99, you should have applied for a job on the board, apparently it's quite easy. SDL started to get into trouble in June last year when the plane went down. When the plane went down, the cornerstone investor went down with it. The Chinese saw the opportunity and took over the holding from Talbot's Estate, which was looking to monetise all of it's investments. It seems Hanlong was the only company with the foresight to take the stake from Talbot's Estate. You can bet your bottom dollar the board was looking for suitors that were not Chinese. You could sense the frustration in speeches made by GJ & Co the last few months, where they talk of only the Chinese having long term investment horizons. It's got very little to do with the board and a lot to do with the uncontrollable circumstances the company has found itself in.


----------



## LRG (6 August 2011)

Yes i have got to admit things are very suspect with the sdl board.

The deal is always coming in a few weeks, months end of qtr, end oy year etc.

Except when we get to each of these milestones, NOTHING and then we get another timeline "advanced discussion" quote etc.

With the wisdom of hindsight i wish i just got out after the big run up into the 60's in early january 

Sundance is doing my head in at the momment, bleeding profits like ther is no tmw.

Was expecting at least one buck, now wondering if 50c is even safe! 

See what happens next week


----------



## Jewels (17 August 2011)

Hey fellow SDL'ers,
Thought you may be interested in a breakfast meeting that I attended at the WA club this morning.
The meeting was arranged by Morgans, and was meant to be addressed by Giulio Cassello, unfortunately (or to be honest fortunately I guess) Guilio was unable to attend as he is currently in Cameroon/Congo (I'll get to what he is doing there later), however Paul DeNardi (General Manager of Finance) stepped up to the plate and gave a professional and informative presentation (Doubt you'll read this but enjoyed it, well done, thank you Paul).
So I think we've all seen there main presentation and for long term followers of SDL most of what I'm about to say will be old news.

SDL way under valued compared to its piers
Enviromental approval granted for mine, rail and port.
Railway line is capable of moving 100mtpa without any modification
Port facilities will need to be upgraded to handle 100mtpa
if you are wondering 100mtpa is what Guilio has been quoted as being produced by "the region"


[/LIST]
Obviously Paul wasn't able to really comment on negotiations re takeover or off take agreements (don't you hate that!) but I got the impression that there is no way in the world (Even given Global Armageddon) that Hanlong will get there mitts on Sundance for 50 cents a share.
I posted earlier on this site a question re the additional 15% of Sundance that the Cameroon government  is able to buy for 50% of the total costs to the date of the completion of the DFS (more knowledgeable posters please correct me if I'm wrong).  Something that nobody on any of the blogs that I read seems to have questioned.  Well I asked Paul DeNardi what the go was.  His reply was that that is what Giulio is doing in Cameroon at the moment, assisting in the negotiations for the purchase of the additional 15% by the Cameroon government, and assisting with negotiations for the Mbalam convention. (yes they are still negotiating the Mbalam convention). Would love to know what 50% of all the costs to the date of the DFS is worth, I'm guessing about  $80 million.  (all of a sudden we are starting to sound "cashed up" with enough money to keep drilling right through GFC II).
What a segway.  My next question was re the next resource/reserve up grade. Basically I stated that the offer from Hanlong was considered very much a low ball offer and when could we expect another reserve/resource up grade to really blow the offer out of the water?  Once again, Mr DeNardi wasn't able to say that the next upgrade will be coming out mid September, but what he could say was that since they released the last upgrade that they have been drilling flat out, and whilst he didn't say anything directly relating to the next upgrade you could tell that he was very happy that somebody had asked the question.  Remember folks we are open at depth at Nabeeba and Mbalam, and that we have only drilled a very small (less than 4%) of our prospective tenements. So going on that I'm thinking the next resource up grade can't be that far away, and that we will get a really good idea from several thousand meters of core.
I'm sure there is plenty more that I've neglected to communicate, but basically I came away thinking that I need to increase my holding, that SDL will by virtue of its' first mover advantage will not be the next FMG, but the next RIO.
Think about it people, do you really think with a billion dollar a year income that we will really pay off debt in 3 years, or do you think that Sundance may use its rail and port facilities, and spare cash flow to gain control over other deposits in in the Cameroon, Congo area?
Anyway the only other thing that I wanted to say is that after last June 19, Adam Rankin Willson stepped in at very short notice as a member of the board.
I am lead to believe that Adam is not in good health at the moment.  so to Adam, his wife and family, thank you so much for all the work you've done for SDL, I know I appreciate it and I am sure all the other shareholders do also, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
Ciao Team J.


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## zomfgwtfbbq (17 August 2011)

interesting outlook. 100mtpa output... really.... given their resource???


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## Jewels (18 August 2011)

zomfgwtfbbq said:


> interesting outlook. 100mtpa output... really.... given their resource???



Hi Zomfgwtfbbq, I don't think you read my post properly.  If you follow SDL at all you would be aware that Giulio was talking 100mtpa for "The Region".  I'm so sorry as I thought that I had made that clear. Obviously not.
Also I neglected to post yesterday that Mr DeNardi said that SDL were still negotiating with potential off take partners as if there were no take over offer on the table.
So Basically at the corporate level at the moment our board are:

Negotiating the Mbalam Convention.
Negotiating the Cameroonian governments 15% purchase
Negotiating off take agreements with various parties
And trying to convince Hanlong to come to the party with a serious offer.
Can't help but think they must be flat out like a lizard drinking at the moment.
Also shareholders, SDL have a new animation that explains the whole process from digging the DSO out of the ground all the way through to loading it onto the China Max ships.  If you get the chance try to get to see it as it's very good.  Don't know if it's available on their website or not.  If it isn't it should be.
One more thing that came out of yesterday, is that the cost of building the iron ore port will be considerably cheaper than building the same structure here in WA.  The reason being that because it's on the equator, it has a far more "inert" weather conditions, so doesn't need the big rock breakwaters required here.
Ciao J.


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## LRG (18 August 2011)

thanks Jewels great insight.

I am hanging back loading up at this stage, IMO and from also viewing HC tosssers chat, I think mid september we will hear womething.

Between then and now I think there may be a pull back towards 40ish with Europe and US still uncertain for the next couple of weeks at least.

I think, as long as I load up with a few more by 1st week in September, hopefully I wont miss the good news like resource upgrade or finance, govt uptake etc as you have gleemed. Excellent news you have provided - much appreciated in this current vaccuum of real info on our dear Sundance Kid. Dec.  I am Holding since 2007.


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## zomfgwtfbbq (19 August 2011)

Jewels said:


> Hi Zomfgwtfbbq, I don't think you read my post properly.  If you follow SDL at all you would be aware that Giulio was talking 100mtpa for "The Region".  I'm so sorry as I thought that I had made that clear. Obviously not.
> Also I neglected to post yesterday that Mr DeNardi said that SDL were still negotiating with potential off take partners as if there were no take over offer on the table.
> So Basically at the corporate level at the moment our board are:
> 
> ...




I read you fine, but really.... am quite skeptical about it. I believe they will mine. However not at a 100 Mtpa rate. I will say I have a better than average insight into iron ore projects and have looked at this particular one before. 

I have stock in SDL and I do want to acquire more, but not at the current prices at the moment. I think it's a fairly good company but even around a 100 Mtpa.. with the time frames I have in my head and with regards to the market dynamics by the time they get a 100 Mtpa rate.. well I don't think it's all that rosy as painted by Jones.


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## Jewels (19 August 2011)

I'm So sorry I'm obviously not explaining"the region" properly. So let me put it this way;
SDL will move 35 million tonnes pa initially, with the ability to carry another 65 million tonnes pa from other iron ore mines that are very near by.  Eventually it will be 50mtpa for SDL and 50mtpa from other mines in "The Region".  SDL will therefore recieve a "royalty" for shipping up to 65mtpa.  So that's what I mean by the region.  Like the Pilbra.
1 billion dollars free cash flow, near by high grade deposits, a more mature company, with cash flow, up against more junior companies with deposits and no infrastructure......
I don't know but it sounds a lot like the Pilbtra in the 1960's to me.
My prediction is that fy 2014/15 will be a M&A ORGY!!!!
Ciao guys


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## Lootius (19 August 2011)

Indeed, the 100Mtpa predicted by SDL for the region may be the capacity with which the rail and port facilities can handle. At least one other company i'm aware of with ore deposits south of Mbalam in Congo has alluded to watching with interest the developments with SDL. I speculate that they may wish to negotiate for access to the rail corridor and port in some form. 
The asset value and development of many other projects in the region in the near term hinge on SDL's ability to secure funding to build the rail and port facilities.

I don't currently hold SDL.


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## Jewels (19 August 2011)

I'm such a Noddy I left out perhaps the most pertinent comment of the breakfast meeting.
Mr DeNardi said that in recent weeks they had noticed a big increase in the number of shares being purchased by Hedge Funds on the share register.  Paul then went on to say that these hedge funds typically brought in when they believed that there was going to be "further upside" in the takeover process.
I really got the impression that there is a lot happening behind the scenes at the moment.  Right now though, I think we may get some drilling results before we get any further "corporate type" announcements.
Okay people, I think that is about all of worth that I can add to the thread at the moment, have a wonderful weekend.
Looking forward to the "Dollar Party" at the Burswood!
Ciao Jewels


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## zomfgwtfbbq (19 August 2011)

I am optimistic about SDL but let's just err on side of caution yea? I mean really at this point I personally think its fantastic to buy in. I've queued up orders for it. BUT given the economic climate and financing and stuff, the project given what it is... just hold your horses. That's all I'm saying. Look twice and then jump ok guys?


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## bob99 (23 August 2011)

Ok, I have held back long enough reading this "information" from Jewel.

So, I have 2 questions.

The first is to Jewel: do you have a position that you should declare here? That is you have knowledge or a position within SDL that you should make very clear? I say this as your posts are very close to ... and this is my second question.

To the administrators of ASF are you not watching this hyperbole very closely for being in a very serious breach of "insider knowledge".

Personally I think what you have written Jewel is utter nonsense and like many before you posting irrelevant and unsustained opinions - no matter how you dress it is up - will not help the growing ground swell of negative opinion about this company and its appalling board.

I will add, I have tried to find any 'official' or even 'unofficial' comment or attributes to your apparent conversations with SDL board members/employees and there is nothing.

Maybe you might care to point everyone in the direction to where any of this is "recorded". Ohhh, and please don’t point us to a pamphlet or some micky mouse newspaper report from Vladivostok or the like.

As I have mentioned your claims almost come very close to insider knowledge, so the public record should support what you say, or you do have insider knowledge or someone is telling lies.


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## Jewels (24 August 2011)

Hey Bob 99,
I don't usually post unless I have something of worth to say, but after such a vitriolic attack, I feel a right of reply is in order.
Firstly I do have a position to declare, I am a long term shareholder in SDL who has been involved with the stock for several years, and I hold a relatively large parcel of stock.
Secondly you may think what I say is absolute nonsense, who cares what you think?
The fact is that I attended a presentation given by the company, for stockbrokers and select clients, I then thought I would share the information that I gleaned to other shareholders who were not privileged enough to  attend.  Now the fact that 60 odd stockbrokers, analysts, merchant bankers and shareholders all thought that the presentation was professional and informative, suggests to me that just perhaps it's not "absolute nonsense" as you so eloquently labeled my post.
When it comes to an opinion on SDL, I will listen to Paul DeNardi until the cows come home, dunno, just reckon he may know a little about what he's talking about.
Now the "appalling board" comment:  Gee where do I start with that one...without being insulting I will agree to disagree with you.  If you want to Dis the board, can I suggest you invest in CTP instead.  I'm not sure how long you've been a shareholder, but from memory June 19th last year something occurred that would have sunk just about any other junior explorer in the world, but because of THIS BOARD we have seen the share price increase over 400% since then.  Gee what sought of an investor complains about a board that delivers a 400% share price increase in a year?
Now You've obviously spent hours and hours trying to find official of even unofficial confirmation of what I've said; fair enough I commend your diligence it is very important that you do your own research, So I'm happy to help with your research if you ring RBS Morgans on (08) 6462 1999 and ask for either a broker, financial planner or analyst that attended the Sundance breakfast, I am sure that they will be able to confirm exactly what I have posted. Failing that why not go straight to the "horse" so to speak and give Mr DeNardi a call.  I'm sure you have Sundance's number programmed into you mobile already.
Now I'm not sure you understand what insider trading is.
From my old SIA days I seem to think that insider trading occurs when somebody has information that is not available to the public, that a reasonable person would realize that this information is price sensitive, and then either the said person trades in that particular security, or induces somebody else to trade in that security.  Don't think I've advised others to buy or sell, and whilst I would dearly love to add another couple of million shares to my holding have not done so yet, so, if I were you I'd think carefully before asking moderators to step in when in fact you are the one making libelous statements.
The insinuation that I am lying is simply insulting, However Bob 99 I'll give you a chance to apologize after you've rung Morgans and Sundance and confirmed my last post.  Make sure you do Bob 99, don't chicken out, be a man make a couple of phone calls, do your own research and admit when you are wrong.
I am more than happy to stop posting when I attend presentations by the company if you would prefer.  
So anyway Bob 99, when was the last time you actually posted on SDL anything new or informative?  Just wondering?
You have a sensational day Bob 99, and mate make the phone calls, be a man, and post once you've made the calls!
Ciao All J


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## Slopes (24 August 2011)

Jewels said:


> Hey Bob 99,
> I don't usually post unless I have something of worth to say, but after such a vitriolic attack, I feel a right of reply is in order.
> Firstly I do have a position to declare, I am a long term shareholder in SDL who has been involved with the stock for several years, and I hold a relatively large parcel of stock.
> Secondly you may think what I say is absolute nonsense, who cares what you think?
> ...




cop that!


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## kash (25 August 2011)

Please Jewels. Keep posting. Awesome reporting that normally only inst. receive.
Thanks


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## Johnny Utah (25 August 2011)

me three....keep up the news Jewels! always great to have someone "inside" the investor presentations and then sharing with the rest of us long-term holders that aren't fortunate enough to be on the west coast!


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## bob99 (25 August 2011)

lol ... cop what?

I am sure we could all sit around and compare the size of our parcels, however...

I am so glad you are all so happy to believe anything you read. However Jewels, there is an important aspect of all that you wrote which is missing, and that is there is NOTHING to back up anything you have said.

Its that’s simple. I shouldn’t have to call anyone anywhere at any time. There has not been a single change to a single "brokers" call on SDL, nor any information of any sort based on anything you have written. Whether or not what you say is true.

So, for there to be any validity to anything you have said you need to back it up.

As to the insider trading you have passed on information which no one else anywhere seems to be aware of, this forth coming massive upgrade of resources, which if correct could, should and may change the tables on the current diminishing and allusive offer for the company.

I would have to add, you have provided not a bit of evidence of how SDL, a company with some 2 odd billion T of hematite compares a touch on FMG let alone Rio Tinto.

FMG as far as I am aware has over 11 billion tonnes?

RIO as far as I am aware has over 40 billion tonnes, yet that’s a hard one as they have many interests in many mines and dont own 100% of all of them. And not to forget interests in Aluminium, Copper, Diamonds, and god knows what else.

To put that in perspective for you…

BHP value: $120 odd billion and many interests
RIO value: $40 odd billion and many interests
FMG value: $16 odd billion and prime focus ore
SDL value: $1 odd billion and hasn’t done anything yet

Lastly, anything new on SDL I have posted? Nothing, not a bit. Why? Because I'm not here to provide information on which there is no evidence. I don’t claim to be invited to little chats and talks. However, what I have done is asked a number of very clear questions of SDL, as many appear to have done lately, as to what they are doing? See Jewel the problem with all the blind followers of SDL is that none of them want to ask a single question of this company and get an answer – whether good or bad. All you will find, if you care to look back, is posts like yours that no one else is aware of, or news clippings from far flung chip wrappers on what SDL is doing. That’s not news!

So, if you want to give the board, your mates,  a call on behalf of myself and others and ask those questions then please do so. In the meantime, you could at least provide the clear evidence to back up your claims. Its not much to ask.

Ohhh, and I will add, I am sure my parcel is bigger than yours. I'm just not one to try and show it off. And I have no desire to run this company down - the board yes, the company no, as I want to make squillions out of this little puppy.


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## LRG (25 August 2011)

All of us who hold large parcels (as retail investors) i.e. 1 - 3 mill for 4 plus years obviously want the sp to head north a long way and as quickly as possible to make a squillion or 2.

Bob, jewels is providing info he/she gleened from attending a presentation that you did not attend. Why would she go to all the trouble to make it up.

She/he is like us all enthusiastic about sundance and rightfully so, must like me, you have a lot riding on its success rather than failure.

Suggestions were given if you want to verify the presentationetc etc - you cant be bothered so leave it there.

At the end of the day bob, you, me jewels or any other retailers holding less than 5% has absolutely ZERO control of the final outcome of sundance.

So go back in your hole, calm yourself and stop making ridiculous demands and acusations of posters on this thread. Its has been ahard and frustrating ride for the last 4 years with this stock.


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## kash (1 September 2011)

Right now though, I think we may get some drilling results before we get any further "corporate type" announcements.- jewels

Hi Bob. There is some confirmation that jewels was not just telling stories. Careful not to trash anybody. That meeting conveyed the positive feeling the company have about their resource. Today's announcement shows their good feelings are well founded.


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## zomfgwtfbbq (1 September 2011)

bob99 said:


> I would have to add, you have provided not a bit of evidence of how SDL, a company with some 2 odd billion T of *Itabirites* compares a touch on FMG let alone Rio Tinto.
> 
> FMG as far as I am aware has over 11 billion tonnes? *(magnetite)*




There's a huge difference between the mineral composition. Just edited it for accuracy. Do not mean to step on anyones toes.


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## CarbonSteel (2 September 2011)

Can anyone tell me what will happen to my SDL shares if they decide to accept Hanlongs offer? Will I be forced to sell my shares to Hanlong at their offer price? I don't want to sell my shares to anyone. What are the mechanics of all this stuff? :dunno::thankyou:
Thanks in advance if you decide to enlighten me. :thankyou:


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## alexc2005 (12 September 2011)

So im thinking of buying these at 45c or thereabouts.

But what exactly does that mean. How is it trading so low? 

Is it basically a given 5c increase if the offer goes through?

Seems silly for it to have dropped so much?

Others like BOW are maintaining around the offer price.


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## mr. jeff (12 September 2011)

If you buy you will join the millions who wonder what is happening behind the scenes.
Fair risk for the gain. 
At this stage you would have to wonder what the probabilities of this deal going through are.


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## pavilion103 (13 September 2011)

Interesting morning!


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## RP_Automotive (13 September 2011)

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting morning!




Ceraintly is!

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...long-MD-pd20110913-LMW5U?opendocument&src=rss

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...er-trading-probe/story-fn91v9q3-1226135445157

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904265504576567262021370244.html


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## alexc2005 (13 September 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> If you buy you will join the millions who wonder what is happening behind the scenes.
> Fair risk for the gain.
> At this stage you would have to wonder what the probabilities of this deal going through are.




fair risk indeed!


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## notting (13 September 2011)

China is more likely to intemperate this in the light of -the way it behaves - which is to play dirty and do anything without conscience.

So China will think Australia is trying to some how interfere with the negotiations with sovereign motivations.  It will make them all the more keen to win these assets.
So I think the last thing I'm expecting them to do is walk away in protest.

Should SDL trade at significant discounts when they re open as BMN have I reckon it will be a good opportunity. 
Although I also think that getting a higher price as the board is trying to do maybe difficult.  China could walk away to try to make SDL crash then come in with more buying when it's in the can.  That's the more likely danger. BMN on the other hand is something I feel they will try to take and is more fairly valued by the current bid.

I have been buying more BMN this morning.


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## skc (13 September 2011)

It sounds like the insider trading was done at a personal level as opposed to anything wrong that Hanlong the company has done. But it remains to be seen what impact if any these investigations have on the takeover bids...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-insider-trading/story-fn91v9q3-1226135908511


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## SilverRanger (13 September 2011)

skc said:


> It sounds like the insider trading was done at a personal level as opposed to anything wrong that Hanlong the company has done. But it remains to be seen what impact if any these investigations have on the takeover bids...
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-insider-trading/story-fn91v9q3-1226135908511




The bad guys are going to step down according to Sky News Business


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## alexc2005 (14 September 2011)

So, does this mean that all the smart people that picked up SDL at 37c are now going to be stoked to get 50c offer?

Surely events like this cant be capitalised on?

Hmmm, kinda confused how it all works.


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## skc (14 September 2011)

These idiots were trading CFDs... 



> ASIC alleges that in the space of a week in July, a company identified in the investigation, Wingatta, acquired some 10 million Sundance CFDs for $3.8 million and sold them within an hour of the market opening on the day of Hanlong's takeover announcement (July 18) realising a $1.09 million profit.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/insider-trading-probe-20110913-1k7sq.html#ixzz1XsZkjOfq


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## alexc2005 (15 September 2011)

surely this has to be a bargain at current levels.

Should have got in at 37c! Still not sure how it all works.

Although, seems to me like the takeover offer might be raised making this even better value..


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## notting (15 September 2011)

Doesn't matter if the offer isn't raised.  It's still a pretty great buy in my opinion. BMN being even better.  Which I have been tucking into!  
There are the risks but that's the game.


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## alexc2005 (15 September 2011)

notting said:


> Doesn't matter if the offer isn't raised.  It's still a pretty great buy in my opinion. BMN being even better.  Which I have been tucking into!
> There are the risks but that's the game.




holy crap, bmn is tradign at 50% of the offer...

epic


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## FreshTrader (29 September 2011)

Just picked some of these up at 41c today, what are we thinking for tomorrow?  Wasn't planning on buying any shares this week, however, noticed that SDL will release it's full year results on the 30th (tomorrow).  Fingers crossed.


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## Crom (2 October 2011)

There is an article on sina.com.cn that on Sep't 30 Hanlong and Sundance have agreed on a 57 cent takeover price.

There is no news however on the Sundance website and depth on the ASX certainly shows no greater interest than at the close on Friday.

Using the Google translator the article is interesting in terms of the financial power that the parent company Chinese Dragon group wields.  They have 30 odd companies with assets of 36 billion for the strategic acquistion of mineral resource companies needed for Chinese growth.

While I understand the swings and round abouts on the share mkt due to sentiment, the problem for Aussie miners and explorers is that of takeovers by the Chinese at reduced prices.  It happenned during the first GFC and is continuing. 

For my part buying resource stocks on big dips is a strategy I stick with, as the growth needs of China and India are real and will not dissappear despite the gloom and doom pundits.  While I already held a large parcel of SDL, I bought a lot more on the recent fall as it was an obvious win situation.

It will be interesting now to look at the share prices of stocks that will benefit from the development of rail and infrastructure as a result of the development of Sundance projects.


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## drcopper (2 October 2011)

notting said:


> Doesn't matter if the offer isn't raised.  It's still a pretty great buy in my opinion. BMN being even better.  Which I have been tucking into!
> There are the risks but that's the game.




I agree that buying BMN is a big risk, as no one know what Hanlong will do. I think their intention to bid BMN is not clear.


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## alexc2005 (3 October 2011)

Well SDL has gone into a trading halt.

It seems we have missed our chance to buy , stupid market sentiment, i watched these drop to 30c and didnt pick any up!!

I needs me some man berries.


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## CarbonSteel (3 October 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> Can anyone tell me what will happen to my SDL shares if they decide to accept Hanlongs offer? Will I be forced to sell my shares to Hanlong at their offer price? I don't want to sell my shares to anyone. What are the mechanics of all this stuff? :dunno::thankyou:
> Thanks in advance if you decide to enlighten me. :thankyou:




Nobody answered my question above. Now it looks like a reality. Does anyone know what happens in this situation? Or y'all don't know either?


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## bassmanpete (3 October 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> Nobody answered my question above. Now it looks like a reality. Does anyone know what happens in this situation? Or y'all don't know either?




Initially you don't have to sell but if the company making the takeover bid (in this case Hanlong) acquires 90% of the shares then they can compulsorily acquire the other 10%. In other words, you'd have to sell.


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## alexc2005 (4 October 2011)

Hmmmm

Good buy at the moment, i don't get why it hasn't sky rocketed to 57c?


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## ChessPlayer (4 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Hmmmm
> 
> Good buy at the moment, i don't get why it hasn't sky rocketed to 57c?




me to, can someone please explain?


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## mystockview (4 October 2011)

ChessPlayer said:


> me to, can someone please explain?




In my view: and in fact I am surprised it hasn’t gone the other way. The offer, and the subsequent acceptance is a joke. This a very quick and (simple) example of a board who has no idea how to conduct business. Why? Let’s look at it:

1. You can use all the monthly avg.s you like and trading ranges as a percentage yet it still means little. X percent of very little is still little. Think about. If I say I will give you 30% of 10 cents what do you get? 3 cents, which is not much. Sure, it’s a great return, yet is little in the grand scheme. However, if I gave you 30% of $100 then you have something. Its more tangible and you can do something with it whereas 3 cents will do nothing.

2. The initial offer, if I recall correctly as I don’t have the figures to hand was some 40c below actual share value (that is shares to potential resource value), and so we are only 7 cents closer.

3. It will be approx. 10 months before you see your money (which in itself is an appalling timeline, all the benefit to Hanlong and all the risk to SDL and its shareholder) if you wait for the agreement to pass, which infers that if the stock went to 57c on the market then you will be making nothing for 10mths as the value has been met.

4. There will be no counter offer. No data room has been set-up, no one else has expressed an interest and so there won’t be a counter offer.

5. As with point 4, the terms of the agreement pretty much mean no one else will get a look-in.

6. Because this rubbish board has said yes they will not – as they haven’t been for the past 4mths – be looking at other options, so no other partners, or financing is being sort which means this is a deal done, as far as the board is concerned.

7. If Hanlong pulled out, or the board pulled out for whatever reasons it would mean that nearly 14mths of the project timeline had been wasted, and more importantly the stock price will plummet.

8. There is a feeling amongst the avg. stock holder that this is a rubbish price on offer and are quite possibly going to vote against it if they don’t get out now, so if that happens then the price will plummet again as there will be no agreement, or on the flip side if Hanlong still want SDL they will need to cough up more.

9. And lastly, yet not the only point is that there is no resolution to the insider trading issues.

So in the end, if the agreement fails for whatever reason the price will plummet, if the agreement goes ahead all you can hope for is 57c in 10 months, and there is no potential counter bid from anywhere or anyone and so this is why it has not jumped to 57c.

Most avg. investors will be doing their figures and thinking, I got most of my shares at x amt, this gives me y in my pocket so I’ll take it now. Look at it this way: 10,000 shares at 10 cents (if you were lucky) is $1000 spent. Now you can cash in and get $4700 (assume 47c sale price). A 470% increase. Now you can use that money now to make more, invest elsewhere or spend. Or wait for 10c more so instead of 470% you make 570%, or in real terms another $1000. So buy BHP at today’s price, approx. $33 ($4700/$33) and you will get 142 shares, which even if they make half of the project analysts values – assume avg. is $55 target – and you make $22/2 (give you half) then 142 shares * $44 is $6248, some $548 more and you might have got some dividends as well.

So why didn’t it bounce, it’s a junk offer with a junk acceptance that has more down's than up's. Just my view.


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## CarbonSteel (4 October 2011)

bassmanpete said:


> Initially you don't have to sell but if the company making the takeover bid (in this case Hanlong) acquires 90% of the shares then they can compulsorily acquire the other 10%. In other words, you'd have to sell.




Thank you very much bassman. It is now a reality and a dilemma. I am very inclined towards _Chessplayers'_ attitude. When the paperwork comes, I am inclined to vote no to this agreement. See his post from today. As I understand it, IO was worth $1/T in the ground 2 years ago. Now Chinese demand has increased and our board has sold us out at a  measly 57 cents! Will they still get salaries, buy their cheap options and do nothing for the next 10 months while we SH's give Hanlong an interest free loan?

Not only does it not make sense, I feel like I must buy the biggest jar of lubricant available. I suppose the Chinese make that too!

Am I angry? You bet! Especially after believing Giulios' words! ("We're still negotiating with others......Hanlongs' offer is way low"....etc.)

But what do others think? Will you rebel or will you accept and if so, why?


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## zomfgwtfbbq (4 October 2011)

Sundance is disappointing. THis is absolute rubbish. 

This is a lowball offer and Sundance are being very lazy in trying to develop the Mbalam project. I don't even see how it's going to be shipping anything but hot air in 2014 / 2015 at this rate.

FFS stop lowballing us and get started on the damn project. It's good quality DSO, just need to get the infrastructure up. Are these guys amateurs at mining? geez.

/rant over. 

But yes, lousy deal today.


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## notting (4 October 2011)

Were we really waiting for 3.5 billion worth of a funding miracle to get it going? And waiting till 2015 to cash in your chips?
Who knows by then China may have become totally dysfunctional.
It's hardly a premium, however I'd be confident that SDL would be trading around .25c or lower without it! 
If that were the case I am fairly sure you'd be happier with .57 in a short while or even .45 today.


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## skc (4 October 2011)

notting said:


> Were we really waiting for 3.5 billion worth of a funding miracle to get it going? And waiting till 2015 to cash in your chips?
> Who knows by then China may have become totally dysfunctional.
> It's hardly a premium, however I'd be confident that SDL would be trading around .25c or lower without it!
> If that were the case I am fairly sure you'd be happier with .57 in a short while or even .45 today.




Agree. 

57c certainty is worth a lot more than $2 per share in 3 years that only has a 10% chance of being reached.

Cash in your SDL chips and there are plenty of other iron ore shares out there. Plenty of them are well off their recent highs - they are just as much a bargain IF you think China is going stronger forever...


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## skyQuake (5 October 2011)

Discount is because ppl are skeptical its going to go thru. Variety of factors



> Hanlong’s bid for Sundance still hangs in the balance.
> Sundance is believed to be close to securing a mining convention agreement with the Cameroon government
> after officials from Sundance, Hanlong and strategic partners in the Mbalam project, China Railway Construction
> Corporation and China Harbour Engineering, met the Cameroonian President in Beijing in late July.
> ...



From AFR i think


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

skc said:


> Agree.
> 
> 57c certainty is worth a lot more than $2 per share in 3 years that only has a 10% chance of being reached.
> 
> Cash in your SDL chips and there are plenty of other iron ore shares out there. Plenty of them are well off their recent highs - they are just as much a bargain IF you think China is going stronger forever...




I bought in today at 45.5c and am happy with a likely $2000 profit in 10 months.


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## CarbonSteel (5 October 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> Thank you very much bassman. It is now a reality and a dilemma. I am very inclined towards _Chessplayers'_ attitude. When the paperwork comes, I am inclined to vote no to this agreement. See his post from today. As I understand it, IO was worth $1/T in the ground 2 years ago. Now Chinese demand has increased and our board has sold us out at a  measly 57 cents! Will they still get salaries, buy their cheap options and do nothing for the next 10 months while we SH's give Hanlong an interest free loan?
> 
> Not only does it not make sense, I feel like I must buy the biggest jar of lubricant available. I suppose the Chinese make that too!
> 
> ...




Sorry, referred to wrong poster. Should of course have been "_mystockview_" not "_Chessplayer_"


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## mystockview (5 October 2011)

Wow, its not very often you see a stock that has been bid for close less than what it opened at. Do I think this is a trend of things to come with this stock? Sure is!

Last closing: 3/10 was 42c. Opened: 4/10 46.5c. Closed: 4/10 45.5c, and even retreated further back. Ouch!

IMO ... pick a price and sell, sell, sell. I fear this will only end in tears if you dont. For if you wait 10mths you will make little, compared to what you could make elsewhere, and you run the very high risk this could in fact go balls up.

To use a sporting phrase: Hanlong 1, Sundance nil.


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## notting (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> Wow, its not very often you see a stock that has been bid for close less than what it opened at.



Really?



mystockview said:


> IMO ... pick a price and sell, sell, sell. I fear this will only end in tears if you dont. For if you wait 10mths you will make little, compared to what you could make elsewhere,.



It's interesting how 20% is snubbed for a 10month investment in a mad market because there is thinking that there is going to be a higher % gain doing something else.  There never seems to be much clarity on what the something else is but it's there and your definitely going to nail it, aren't you!?  BMN 50%


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## mystockview (5 October 2011)

notting said:


> Really?
> 
> It's interesting how 20% is snubbed for a 10month investment in a mad market because there is thinking that there is going to be a higher % gain doing something else.  There never seems to be much clarity on what the something else is but it's there and your definitely going to nail it, aren't you!?  BMN 50%




1. Find me a stock that has done the same? A stock, that has been bid for and closed on the 1st day after the annoucment (althought SDL is a little different in that this is a revised offer) lower than what it opened as. I would be keen to know what it was/is.

2. I'm so glad you think 10c a share for 10mths wait is a great investment. You can talk 20% all you like, its still 10c.

3. As to a higher % gain elsewhere, who cares. I am interested in money, not the % gain. It seems to fail me why so many people seem to care about the % gain. You dont bank a %, you bank the money you make. There is a difference. I have already provided an example of where that clarity is in my 1st posting. If you dont think, for example BHP will hit $44 somewhere in the next 12mths I'm happy to make a bet and make up the difference you lose by getting out of SDL and buying into BHP, at the example I provided. I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is. How about you?


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## mystockview (5 October 2011)

skc said:


> Agree.
> 
> 57c certainty is worth a lot more than $2 per share in 3 years that only has a 10% chance of being reached.
> 
> Cash in your SDL chips and there are plenty of other iron ore shares out there. Plenty of them are well off their recent highs - they are just as much a bargain IF you think China is going stronger forever...




While I think the board of this company would have run SDL into the ground (no pun intended), how was there only a 10% chance of it being reached? Other than the fact I have already anwered the question.


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> 1. Find me a stock that has done the same? A stock, that has been bid for and closed on the 1st day after the annoucment (althought SDL is a little different in that this is a revised offer) lower than what it opened as. I would be keen to know what it was/is.
> 
> 2. I'm so glad you think 10c a share for 10mths wait is a great investment. You can talk 20% all you like, its still 10c.
> 
> 3. As to a higher % gain elsewhere, who cares. I am interested in money, not the % gain. It seems to fail me why so many people seem to care about the % gain. You dont bank a %, you bank the money you make. There is a difference. I have already provided an example of where that clarity is in my 1st posting. If you dont think, for example BHP will hit $44 somewhere in the next 12mths I'm happy to make a bet and make up the difference you lose by getting out of SDL and buying into BHP, at the example I provided. I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is. How about you?




It's all about the percentage gain.   What would you rather a profit of 12c on each one of 20,000 shares you picked up for 45c or a profit of a $1 on each one of 300 shares you picked up for $35 (which is BHP's current price)???  You would take the 20,000 * 12c any day of the week.  300 BHP shares however would cost you more than 20,000 SDL shares.  At current market status I'm happy with sitting on SDL as I think we are well due for more falls elsewhere.


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## mystockview (5 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> It's all about the percentage gain.   What would you rather a profit of 12c on each one of 20,000 shares you picked up for 45c or a profit of a $1 on each one of 300 shares you picked up for $35 (which is BHP's current price)???  You would take the 20,000 * 12c any day of the week.  300 BHP shares however would cost you more than 20,000 SDL shares.  At current market status I'm happy with sitting on SDL as I think we are well due for more falls elsewhere.




Sorry, you cant compare apples with oranges. You could use that areguement on any share valued less than another. I would also add that the % gain was not about an equal amt. My example was based on actual (known - in this case SDL has an offer price if 57c) or assume (based on some analysis that BHP has a collective target of $55+, yet I assumed only half the current (at the time $33) and collective target $55) hence $44, would be reached within the period of time SDL settles next yr, some 10mths away.

Further this was intended as why SDL is a bad buy now - as I noticed someone said they brought at 46.5c yesterday and want to wait 10mths for $2000. Sorry, yet I wont be coming to you for financial advice - as opportunity gain from holding or buying into SDL at this point is not worth the opportunity gain elsewhere.


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> Sorry, you cant compare apples with oranges. You could use that areguement on any share valued less than another. I would also add that the % gain was not about an equal amt. My example was based on actual (known - in this case SDL has an offer price if 57c) or assume (based on some analysis that BHP has a collective target of $55+, yet I assumed only half the current (at the time $33) and collective target $55) hence $44, would be reached within the period of time SDL settles next yr, some 10mths away.
> 
> Further this was intended as why SDL is a bad buy now - as I noticed someone said they brought at 46.5c yesterday and want to wait 10mths for $2000. Sorry, yet I wont be coming to you for financial advice - as opportunity gain from holding or buying into SDL at this point is not worth the opportunity gain elsewhere.




Can you guarantee that BHP will reach $44? No.  Nor am I guaranteed I will receive the offer price of 57c in 10 months.  However, BHP is on a pretty hefty down trend atm as is still no where near late 2008 lows where it reached 20 even.  I would rather stick my money here for now, with a LIKELY 25% gain and wait it out till things bottom out and we start seeing some strong upward movement.  Rather play it safe then sorry, however your argument about oppurtunity gain enlightened me and I may even consider looking at other options in the near future, I'm not worried if the stock drops a little, as I can get out at my entry price if need be.  But until we start seeing some positive signs, here it will stay.

I don't expect you to want FA from me, as I would not take FA from you, we all have our way of doing things, this seems like the right path for me.


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## notting (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> as opportunity gain from holding or buying into SDL at this point is not worth the opportunity gain elsewhere.




Sorry but I'm having trouble finding the stock code for 'Elsewhere." Can you please provide it so I can sell my SDL and buy it.


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

notting said:


> Sorry but I'm having trouble finding the stock code for 'Elsewhere." Can you please provide it so I can sell my SDL and buy it.




Loving it.


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## mystockview (5 October 2011)

notting said:


> Sorry but I'm having trouble finding the stock code for 'Elsewhere." Can you please provide it so I can sell my SDL and buy it.




Stock code is FKU. However, possibly your dyslexia is preventing you from reading a cogent sentence. Thats OK, you keep playing SDL and making your $2000 and I will take, quite literally the many truck loads of cash I made and go buy 'elsewhere'.


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## skc (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> While I think the board of this company would have run SDL into the ground (no pun intended), how was there only a 10% chance of it being reached? Other than the fact I have already anwered the question.




Sorry the 10% was just to illustrate the uncertainty. I should have said X% where X is somewhere between 1-100. The buy/hold/sell decision stems from that for each trader...


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## notting (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> Stock code is FKU. However, possibly your dyslexia is preventing you from reading a cogent sentence. Thats OK, you keep playing SDL and making your $2000 and I will take, quite literally the many truck loads of cash I made and go buy 'elsewhere'.



You could have just said BMN 50%


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> Stock code is FKU. However, possibly your dyslexia is preventing you from reading a cogent sentence. Thats OK, you keep playing SDL and making your $2000 and I will take, quite literally the many truck loads of cash I made and go buy 'elsewhere'.




I'm sorry, there doesn't seem to be a company on list with the code "FKU", perhaps you spelt it wrong?

There's no need to get nasty mate, take your "truck load of money" and buy a set of manners.  Neither of us meant to upset you.


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## mystockview (5 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> I'm sorry, there doesn't seem to be a company on list with the code "FKU", perhaps you spelt it wrong?
> 
> There's no need to get nasty mate, take your "truck load of money" and buy a set of manners.  Neither of us meant to upset you.




Well as my interest in this stock no longer exists, as I say I have my money, I will part this thread with these thoughts.

Upset? Not in the least. There is a difference between attempting (or trying) to make a point, my point, yet a point all the same which valid in your enlightened eyes or not is one which deserves like any posting you make a form of respect.

It would seem that with your infinite knowledge of the market you believe that trying to be witty or humorous, of which you are neither, you dont have to make any valid - in your eyes - response. Thats my point, not being upset.


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

mystockview said:


> Well as my interest in this stock no longer exists, as I say I have my money, I will part this thread with these thoughts.
> 
> Upset? Not in the least. There is a difference between attempting (or trying) to make a point, my point, yet a point all the same which valid in your enlightened eyes or not is one which deserves like any posting you make a form of respect.
> 
> It would seem that with your infinite knowledge of the market you believe that trying to be witty or humorous, of which you are neither, you dont have to make any valid - in your eyes - response. Thats my point, not being upset.




My friend, I never attempted to be witty or humorous, I don't know where you pulled that from.  I don't think I disrespected your post at all, rather the opposite, your point of view almost convinced me to sell out of SDL.  However, as I said, it's the right choice for me to hold.  I don't have in infinite knowledge of the market, thus why I joined this forum, to learn.  I'm sorry if it came across that I was trying to be "humorous" (although I don't know how you could have come to this conclusion), I was simply offering my point of view, which I would have expect to have been met with equal respect.  25% return is pretty damn decent in my eyes, as I AM less experienced, unlike yourself who intends to make a 33.33% return on BHP.  
Good luck to you sir.  I apologise sincerly if I caused you any grief.


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## CarbonSteel (5 October 2011)

Well that was all very interesting but of no value to me. Does anybody care that we are being sold out at 43c below EV? Anybody at all? You are just going to lie down and let these directors run over you? They are stealing from us!


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## FreshTrader (5 October 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> Well that was all very interesting but of no value to me. Does anybody care that we are being sold out at 43c below EV? Anybody at all? You are just going to lie down and let these directors run over you? They are stealing from us!




My apologies in advance for asking what probably seems like a stupid question, but how do I calculate EV (I'm assuming it means Enterprise Value)???  I use CommSec as my trading platform and couldn't find this price indicator in the research section.  Any help in pointing me in the right direction would be much appreciated.  Thanks.


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## CarbonSteel (6 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> My apologies in advance for asking what probably seems like a stupid question, but how do I calculate EV (I'm assuming it means Enterprise Value)???  I use CommSec as my trading platform and couldn't find this price indicator in the research section.  Any help in pointing me in the right direction would be much appreciated.  Thanks.




I only know the actual market sale price method. This can be divided by the tonnage to get a value/tonne.

If you go back about 2 years in the sdl forum there were some posts which quoted these values. I do remember one comparable sale in Brazil which would have given sdl an EV of ~ $1. Hope this helps.


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## FreshTrader (7 October 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> I only know the actual market sale price method. This can be divided by the tonnage to get a value/tonne.
> 
> If you go back about 2 years in the sdl forum there were some posts which quoted these values. I do remember one comparable sale in Brazil which would have given sdl an EV of ~ $1. Hope this helps.




Tonnage?  Sorry I'm not quite sure I understand.  Where do I obtain this tonnage value from?  

In response to your query, if the offer price was not accepted or it the offer was cancelled for whatever reason, what kind of price would you expect these shares to reach within 10 months? Just curious.  I'm assuming you intended to hold for a relatively extended period of time.  Let's say... in 3 years time where do you predict these shares to be at?

Thanks for the help Carbon.


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## CarbonSteel (7 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Tonnage?  Sorry I'm not quite sure I understand.  Where do I obtain this tonnage value from?
> 
> In response to your query, if the offer price was not accepted or it the offer was cancelled for whatever reason, what kind of price would you expect these shares to reach within 10 months? Just curious.  I'm assuming you intended to hold for a relatively extended period of time.  Let's say... in 3 years time where do you predict these shares to be at?
> 
> Thanks for the help Carbon.




Tonnage is from their proven resource. Look at any of their presentations. I think it is about 2.3B tonnes. If held for 3 yrs, I would think they should be in the region of $2 - 3. However, this is no longer an option because the wise directors have decided to maximise their own situation rather than that of the SH's. IE by the sale to Hanlong which we are bound to honour if more than 90% (apparently) of SH's approve this sale. I will not be one of them. Hope this helps.


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## FreshTrader (7 October 2011)

CarbonSteel said:


> Tonnage is from their proven resource. Look at any of their presentations. I think it is about 2.3B tonnes. If held for 3 yrs, I would think they should be in the region of $2 - 3. However, this is no longer an option because the wise directors have decided to maximise their own situation rather than that of the SH's. IE by the sale to Hanlong which we are bound to honour if more than 90% (apparently) of SH's approve this sale. I will not be one of them. Hope this helps.




Well $2 - $3 in 3 years time sure sounds a hell of alot better than the current offer, but that's if these 'wise' directors are able to run the company efficiently and effectively over that period rather than make rash decisions like accepting Hanlong's bid price.  So effectively, you're hoping that the offer gets knocked back by the majority of shareholders and we continue to hold out for greater returns.  

I don't like the fact that the current share price fell today...


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## CarbonSteel (7 October 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Well $2 - $3 in 3 years time sure sounds a hell of alot better than the current offer, but that's if these 'wise' directors are able to run the company efficiently and effectively over that period rather than make rash decisions like accepting Hanlong's bid price.  So effectively, you're hoping that the offer gets knocked back by the majority of shareholders and we continue to hold out for greater returns.
> 
> I don't like the fact that the current share price fell today...




And the SP will not get much better until time passes and the "wonderful" deal these directors have made begins to look like it is set in concrete. There is a lot that can go wrong and hopefully it will. These directors have sold us out, no doubt about it. I really think they have desecrated the graves of the originals, despite their cry of "doing it all for those who died". I have never heard a greater lie in my life and I am sure Ron Talbot and Don Lewis would turn in their graves if they could be cognizant of the current situation. Think about it. This is a mine which has an IRR of 27%. More exploration would probably increase this rate. The sale price to Hanlong is an indication of the rigidity of the directors collective penises. On a scale of 1 - 10, about 0.25. Mine developers will borrow $5B to develop it and pay the TOTAL back in 3 years. (Remember it has a life of 35 yrs at this stage). Why would you sell something like that? To serve your own purposes in spite of crowing that "we're doing it all for the shareholders". These directors have better ways to spend their time and more lucrative deals to do. I dont. I was really hoping that they would do what they said they were going to do. Its a game, and they will probably win this one. Time to "keep the bastards honest" I say! VOTE NO!!! to this sale!


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## dumadiscount (11 October 2011)

Trading halt...

And the circus continues


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## mr. jeff (14 October 2011)

Looking through bloomberg last night got me onto an article about SDL offering the 2nd most profitable potential deal at the moment http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-12/arbs-see-best-mining-deal-profit-in-sundance-s-china-africa-ties-real-m-a.html

it is an interesting read. 
If you had the name "so cynical" on this forum, you could justify saying that there are some serious players that want to get out of their arb positions now by selling into the public as they are not very comfortable that the deal will get over the line. Or you could go buy lots and confidently wait for the return. Hard call, betting on politics.


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## CarbonSteel (1 November 2011)

dumadiscount said:


> Trading halt...
> 
> And the circus continues




Yep.
Have a look at the expensive, glossy brochure intended for the AGM. Haven't they done well? NO! They have sold us out. BIGTIME!:shoot:


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## Jewels (26 November 2011)

Howdy Folks, went to the AGM Yesterday, Thought I'd post some notes.
Firstly I had a quick chat to Michael Blackiston prior to the AGM.  Basically I suggested that the long term shareholders were very disappointed with Both Hanlongs conduct, and low ball offer. Michael's  reply was that trying to get an infrastructure project of this size (yes it is actually an infrastructure project and not an iron ore mine!) was immensely difficult in this climate, and that at the end of the day Hanlong were the only group that were prepared to stump up the cash, but it appears that Hanlong have just outplayed everybody brilliantly, and I'll get on to that bit later.

George Jones opened the meeting;
He began by stressing that we (the whole market) are in very difficult times.  I must admit I had a bit of a smirk on my face when George was highlighting all the achievements since the last AGM, and stated "We attracted a corner stone investor" (Hanlong).
I just want to go into this a little further.  It appears that the trustee of the Talbott estate did the deal with Hanlong for Talbots 16%, without the boards knowledge.  Now after the plane crash, when the stock was languishing around 10 cents there was a real concern among the new board that there would be an unsolicited offer for the company at around this level, so the boards efforts were in the early days at least, were focused on a take over prevention strategy.  This is why when Hanlong came and introduced themselves as Sundances new "Cornerstone Investor" the board were quite happy, as they knew that they now held a blocking stake for any potential hostile take over.
Now this is the bit that I was unaware of.
All the announcements that we've had that have included words to the effect of in "advanced negotiations with potential off take partners" were true.  Sundance was very close to tying up an off take deal with two steel mills. Hanlong then jumped in with the first offer, and reading between the lines it was as much to prevent the off takes going through, making it impossible for Sundance to finance the Cap Ex by itself.
Brilliant!
So pretty much as soon as Hanlong made the bid, the game was over for Sundance to go forward to production in it's own right.
Now regardless of the conspiracy theorists, weather Hanlong manipulated the price down before the offer or not, the initial offer was, I think from memory, some 30% higher than the average weighted price of SDL the week before the bid.
The board was compelled to review the offer.
George mentioned that since the initial purchase Hanlong have increased their holding from 16% to 17.4%
Now to rub salt into the wounds, George went on to say that with a cost of $21.20 per tonne, this is one of the cheapest IO produces in the world.
Now we've all looked at the areo mags.  We are all aware that the resource is basically the same the huge ittabirite deposits in Brazil, and we all know that there is much much more IO in the ground.  George like us believes that Mbalam and Nabeeba will end up with a deposit "Multiples" of what we've defined to date.
George then went on highlighting the resource upgrades, all the work that the board has done negotiating the convention, etc.
George then said this (word for word) "_In view of the existing shareholders_ he firmly believes this is a good offer", that the scheme of arrangement gives all the share holders a vote, and it gives Hanlong the security of getting all the conventions and permits in place prior to stumping up more cash.
Now the highly confidential letter.  It was an escape clause for SDL, they chose to waive the condition, so what does that tell you?
Well some people would unkindly suggest that the board are almost scared that if the offer goes away, the share price will capitulate, whilst others might say that without Hanlong on board and the guarantee of Chinese finance that the Mbalam convention will not be signed by the Cameroonian government, and that with out that, Sundance really has nothing.  I prefer to believe the latter, all though there are merits for the former argument.
Another interesting thing was that George Jones said that the head of the Chinese Development Bank (is it CITIC??) "Guaranteed the prime minister of Cameroon that they (the Bank) will be funding the project."
The resolutions were all passed.
When questioned about the remuneration report especially Giullios performance rights, Barry Eldridge basically said that the performance rights had been passed at the last AGM , and that to lure Giullio away from his Short term & long term benefits package, that SDL had to offer something better.  Basically if you pay peanuts you get monkeys.
Paul Denardi then gave a very slick presentation, with a little animated film explaining everything about the whole project.
I asked Paul what had happened to the 50mtpa touted at the 2009 AGM, and he answered that they had determined that it was more profitable to mine at 35mtpa for a longer mine life with the same Capex.
Paul then went on to say that the capex was $135.00 per tonne (is that right, sounds high?) and that it was a relatively inexpensive railway because there were only nine bridges and no tunnels, and the port was also at the lower end of the cost scale due to not needing a breakwater and Being naturally quite deep.
Paul went on to explain that Chinas domestic Iron ore production was decreasing, with their demand increasing, expecting to use between 770mt and 820 mt between 2015 to 2020.
Now we know that the rail has excess capacity, so what will Hanlong get per tonne for shipping other peoples ore?
When I asked the question, Paul was reluctant to speculate, so when I asked for a guidance, and suggested $3.00 per tonne, $5.00 a tonne, or $10.00 a tonne, George Jones jumped in and said that obviously it would depend on how far the ore was transported and that for "$10.00 a tonne it would be a short trip", so for all the analysts, add at least another 500 million dollars a year to the cash flow for transporting other peoples ore (and that is very conservative!)
This post is turning into an epic
So there was plenty more said but I want to go and have a bit of a look into the future.
Now basically in a corporate sense it is highly unlikely that we will see another bid full stop.  This is because Hanlong hold a significant enough stake to block any hostile take over, and the scheme of arrangement precludes any other form of take over.
However for the optimistic out there, George was saying that until the convention is signed (expected in March next year, at the national assembly meeting) that there was little chance of another offer, however after the signing of the convention, then the project would be fully derisked, and if he was (hypothetically) looking at a takeover he wouldn't make a bid until then.
And then the Big question for me, has the Cameroonian government or any of its representatives indicated to the board, or any other representatives of Sundance that they have a preference to do business with the Chinese? To me this is the question that will determine whether Vale, BHP, or RIO may show an interest.
Mr Jones then very skilfully went about not answering my question directly, but highlighted the strength of the relationship between the Chinese Government, and the Cameroonian government.  That the Chinese had just built a large football stadium in Cameroon, and had financed and built other infrastructure projects in Cameroon.  Exact words once again "The Cameroon Government is very happy to do business with china".
So from that little gem, I've concluded that for at least the immediate future expect nothing from SDL, a bit more drilling over the next 3 months maybe,another resource up grade maybe, but nothing until the signing of the convention in March.  Then I think if you are super optimistic you may be expecting a rival bid from one of the big 3, however, even with a whole new Pilbra up for grabs, I doubt it will materialize.
Y'all have fun now, and if you have any questions re the AGM, I'll answer them tomorrow.
CiaoJ.


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## LRG (3 December 2011)

Excellent post jewels. Thanks.  I have held onto sundance for 4 years come january.  what a rollercoaster ride.  now we are back at 38c the hanglong exec has jumped the country - it is getting more and more smelly.

i am thinking of exiting for good soon. got to do some calcs.  To think not long ago I could have got out in the 50's or 60's back at the start of 2011.


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## Jewels (8 December 2011)

Just wondering if Hanlong is China's answer to Australia's Bond Corp of the 1980's?
The more we hear, the more crooked it's representatives and therefor the company sounds.
We need them to get the permits, just wondering what snake oil will appear as the signing of the conventions becomes imminent.
A question to anybody who may have a bit of a mining law background.
Can the Mbalam convention be written in such a way that it precludes a future takeover, ie the license is only awarded if Hanlong owns the resource?
Thanks in anticipation.
Jewels


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## notting (23 December 2011)

Interesting activities with this stock today.  There was some high volume spikes going through around lunch time. 
Buying. 
Then later in the afternoon Bloomberg breaks this global story about how SDL is trading at less than half the offer price and how the premium is the biggest since god knows when and pumping up the tyres like you wouldn't believe.

Hmmm.  Market manipulation whilst everyone is drunk and on holiday hoping everyone will come rushing in on wednesday moring whilst they sell into it!?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/sundance-resources-seen-doubling-money-today-betting-on-takeover-real-m-a.html


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## notting (16 January 2012)

Has moved up about %13.5 on the back of that.  
Interesting to see where it goes from here.


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## mr. jeff (16 January 2012)

notting said:


> Interesting activities with this stock today.  There was some high volume spikes going through around lunch time.
> Buying.
> Then later in the afternoon Bloomberg breaks this global story about how SDL is trading at less than half the offer price and how the premium is the biggest since god knows when and pumping up the tyres like you wouldn't believe.
> 
> ...




Bloomberg has been running this kind of thing on SDL for more than 2 months intermittently so at least they are consistent. 
It is a great deal, buying with the promise of the returns to come.

But obviously a lot of smart people think the deal won't go through. A lack of information doesn't help the situation but so far so good ( no news being good news with SDL is how they play it...)

Good luck.


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## LRG (20 March 2012)

Update, March 20, 2012, SDL is still dead in the water and going no where fast.


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## CarbonSteel (21 March 2012)

LRG said:


> Update, March 20, 2012, SDL is still dead in the water and going no where fast.




Is it all on track for settlement in May?
Will there be a last minute mystery buyer?
Have they settled all conditions imposed by Cameroon govt?
Has Cameroon govt completed all that it necessarily must complete?
Quarterly report will hopefully have all this info but it's 6 weeks away.


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## CarbonSteel (22 March 2012)

LRG said:


> Update, March 20, 2012, SDL is still dead in the water and going no where fast.




I note that the presentation released yesterday says that Hanlongs takeover will occur "later in the year". Does that mean a May settlement is no longer a possibility?


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## Jewels (30 March 2012)

CarbonSteel said:


> I note that the presentation released yesterday says that Hanlongs takeover will occur "later in the year". Does that mean a May settlement is no longer a possibility?




With the addition of a new government committee to deal with I would be surprised if the Mbalam convention goes through according to the original timeline. That will necessitate an extension to the take over date.
There are a lot of rumors flying around about an unsolicited take over, however I keep harking back to a comment that GJ made at the last AGM, and that was that the "Cameroonian Government is very comfortable dealing with the Chinese." To me this would almost preclude an offer from any of the big 3.
In the absence of a better offer, the instos and hedge funds will accept .57 for sure, even though it would be bargain basement pricing. As much as I would love to vote no, what would happen to SDL if the Hanlong offer is rejected? Another offer from another Chinese investment bank at a lower price? Interesting to see how this plays out. Ciao


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## FreshTrader (16 May 2012)

Slump of 2.22% today, what is going on with SDL?  No news... I hate being left in the dark, although it seems SDL is not very interested in keeping its shareholders up to date with current details in relation to takeover bid


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## skc (16 May 2012)

FreshTrader said:


> Slump of 2.22% today, what is going on with SDL?  No news... I hate being left in the dark, although it seems SDL is not very interested in keeping its shareholders up to date with current details in relation to takeover bid




That is about the best performing iron ore stock.

FMG -5.1%
AGO -5.3%
MGX -6.9%
GBG -5.3%
GRR - 3.3%

Pretty good day for SDL I'd say.


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## CarbonSteel (24 May 2012)

Well that's bloody beautiful isn't it?
We get to wait another 6 months for the same price.
The Chinese have all the power in this deal & $1.6b interest free for 6 months.
I still do not think the directors have the interests of the SH's at heart
& they have also not spruiked it to the right people. My opinion.... Trash the deal & wait. We're going to wait anyway. Tell Hang-on longtime it might be there in November but if you want to guarantee it, up your offer to reflect the interest component.
Just a thought.:shoot::shoot::shoot::shoot:


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## Jewels (25 May 2012)

It will be very interesting to see what the independant experts report values Sundance at.  I cant help but feel that towards the end of the report the words "in the absence of a higher offer" will somehow be used to justify the 57 cent offer.
Now whilst I never believed that we would be seeing our money in May I was a bit shocked that it (the SIA) has been put back six months. We keep on drilling however, keep increasing the JORC, keep making it worth more and more, but not for the current shareholders benefit, for the future shareholders benefit.
I know the game was over when we lost the board in the plane crash, but please stop prolonging the agony for the long term shareholders


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## FreshTrader (28 May 2012)

Revised scheme - implementation date: November 16

Does this mean that's the day they intend for shareholders to get their payout, or is there more waiting after that??

Cheers.


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## CarbonSteel (1 June 2012)

Another good thing for Hangon longtime is that they get to pick off SH's at $0.41 or so, which is obviously a bargain if they already agreed to $0.57. 
Shame on these "directors". They won't be getting a "well done" from me. I note their names & will never invest if they are involved. 
Maybe what they are doing is legal, but they fall way short when it comes to being smart.
We live & learn.


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## golfmos123 (13 June 2012)

Surprised to see no-one has commented yet on today's happenings.........

What do people think of the funds raising exercise conducted at 34.5c (significantly below market price of 40c when it was done)???

* board being prudent in raising funds just in case Hanlong has further delays?
* board worried about T/O not going through any more?

It does provoke some thought, that's for sure.  Other thoughts anyone??


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## pixel (13 June 2012)

golfmos123 said:


> Surprised to see no-one has commented yet on today's happenings.........
> *Other thoughts anyone?*?




What if some (or most) of the "sophisticated investors" were close to certain decision makers...
Could that speed up the processing of some necessary permits?

just a cynical thought...

in any case: my chart suggests to stay away for now.


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## Jewels (19 June 2012)

RIP directors of Sundance.
It is a shame that the current board are not capable of seeing your dream come to fruition.
You will not be forgotten by longterm shareholders who shared the dream with you.
You are all greatly missed.


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## Jewels (25 June 2012)

For those who are interested:

	ShareThis	 

     CHICAGO (CN) - A plane crash that killed 11 people in the Republic of Congo, including six Australian mining executives, was caused by the plane's defective Garmin GPS unit, 25 relatives of the victims claim in Federal Court.
     Hong Cassley and 24 co-plaintiffs sued Garmin International, Sundance Resources, Cam Iron, Aero Service SARL, and Raymond Griesbaum, for the June 19, 2010 crash.
     The plaintiffs, citizens of China, the United Kingdom and Australia, sued individually and as representatives of their late relatives' estate.
     "On June 19, 2010, plaintiffs' decedents were passengers onboard a Casa 212 aircraft performing a charter flight from YaoundÃ©, Cameroon to Yangadou, Republic of Congo," the complaint states.
     "On a date prior to June 19, 2010, defendant Garmin designed, manufactured, assembled, and sold the Map 496 Global Positioning System unit installed onboard the accident aircraft.
     "At the time the GPS unit left the custody and control of defendant Garmin, it was defective and unreasonably dangerous in one or more of the following respects, among other defects:
     "a. The GPS unit installed on the accident aircraft failed to provide relevant and/or accurate information regarding the aircraft's position,
     "b. The terrain avoidance functionality of the GPS unit failed to provide timely alerts of approaching and hazardous terrain, and
     "c. The GPS unit did not contain any warning of these or other defects.
     "As the direct and proximate result of one or more of the aforesaid defective and unreasonably dangerous conditions, the accident aircraft failed to avoid mountainous terrain while in flight and violently crashed into the ground near Avima, Republic of Congo.
     "As the direct and proximate result of the aforesaid crash, plaintiffs' decedents were killed."
     The English newspaper The Telegraph reported that 11 people were onboard the plane, including the director of Sundance Resources, Ken Talbot, one of Australia's richest men. Talbot's relatives are not a party to this case.
     The plane was chartered by Sundance to take members of its board of directors on a tour of the Mbalam iron ore fields owned by Cam Iron in northwest Congo-Brazzaville, which are worth billions of dollars, according to The Telegraph.
     Cassley says his relative, James Cassley, worked for GMP Securities Europe and "was required to travel to specific locations at specific times, and in the manner determined by defendants Sundance and Cam Iron."
     "At all times relevant hereto, Defendants Sundance and Cam Iron owed plaintiffs and plaintiffs' decedents a duty to use reasonable care in selecting a charter flight operator so as to not cause injury to, or the deaths of, plaintiffs' decedents," Cassley says.
     "Plaintiffs and the other heirs and next of kin of their respective decedents have suffered a loss of support, loss of net accumulations, loss of household and other services, loss of care, comfort, companionship, guidance and society and mental anguish, sorrow and grief as the result of the deaths of plaintiffs' decedents," the complaint states.
     The plaintiffs demand damages for negligence and seven other counts which are not precisely explicated in the complaint.
     They are represented by Floyd Wisner.

From Court House News.
Ciao


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## CarbonSteel (26 June 2012)

Thankfully the problem now belongs (or soon will belong) to Hangon longtime. Good luck to the families when they sue a Chinese company. Would they have been better off NOT destroying the share value for themselves & us and waiting till Hangon longtime owns the company outright? The end result won't be any different. I fully support the view that the original boards' deaths have shown the new board to be relatively inept. No, The new board cannot begin to claim that they are a legitimate replacement for those great men


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## Jewels (6 July 2012)

Can anybody post the report by Macquarrie private wealth that states that I.O. infrastructure projects in West Africa to be the biggest loosers in the current capital squeeze?
Thanks Jewels


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## Jewels (7 July 2012)

The following is a possible reason for the slump in SDL's share price recently.
Article from MiningNews.net, you can get a free trial subscription at the moment.

West African iron ore at back of queue

Wednesday, 4 July 2012
Kristie Batten

MACQUARIE Private Wealth believes the fledgling west African iron ore industry will be most at risk as companies pull back capital expenditure.

Simandou. Courtesy of Rio Tinto

Markets remain volatile and majors including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have expressed concerns over high costs.

Macquarie said pressure on producers to pullback capital expenditure was highly typical in the third year of a cycle where cashflows were strong.

“This, coupled with a pullback in near-term commodity prices, has made higher capex allocation extremely difficult to justify,” analysts said.

“While the high output base and depletion of existing assets means capex is set to remain above trend, and projects are likely to be phased or deferred rather than cancelled, some it seems inevitable that certain areas will feel the pressure, particularly in regions with little in the way of existing assets,” Macquarie said.

West Africa – in particular its iron ore industry – is one area expected to suffer.

“Iron ore has always been a market where future price expectations are lower than the current prices, the result of which has been insufficient international market supply growth and poor project execution over recent years,” Macquarie said.

“Furthermore, with new projects generally lower in-situ grades and in more remote areas, they are also extremely capital hungry.”

There are known iron ore deposits in Guinea, Liberia, Mauritania and Sierra Leone.

“These are the projects we use to set our long run incentive price, and not only is infrastructure a major challenge, this is also overlaid with greater geopolitical risk,” Macquarie said.

“With doubts remaining about future Chinese growth rates, we believe further delays to project approval are likely.”

Macquarie believes the approval last week of an environmental license for Vale’s 90 million tonne per annum S11D project in Brazil – the largest project in the company’s history – will see the Brazilian mining giant focusing its capital there rather than on its Simandou project in Guinea.

And while Rio Tinto last month announced a $US1 billion ($A971 million) investment for further infrastructure at its own Simandou project next door, Macquarie believes its ambitious Pilbara iron ore expansion will take precedent.

“Meanwhile, many other projects are not yet fully committed such that further delays to execution are likely,” Macquarie said.

“The same issue has been seen for Australia’s Mid West region over that past decade, with many projects on the table in 2006 having essentially not progressed since this point.”
Macquarie doesn’t expect any slowdown in copper capital expenditure, but zinc and greenfields nickel developments were also expected to be in the firing line.

“The well-known issue for zinc is that some of the largest global mines – Century in Australia, Brunswick in Canada and Lisheen in Ireland – are coming to the end of life while others are depleting,” Macquarie said.

“With the zinc market looking markedly oversupplied in 2012, and the ongoing strength of Chinese mine output taking the market by surprise, there is certainly a risk that spend could be deferred.”

Similarly, Macquarie said nickel was in ample supply this year.

“Furthermore, many new greenfield projects are currently in ramp-up phase,” analysts said.

“These projects can be characterised by dramatic capital overspend and extremely late delivery, while the technical risk associated with nickel projects drives even greater uncertainty.”

Macquarie said that companies were unlikely to fast-track nickel developments and many would be placed in the too-hard basket.

Other areas likely to suffer would be the Australian thermal coal market, due to price falls and capital intensive projects, and China’s Xinjiang province, as coal and aluminium markets remain weak and China slows its infrastructure spend in the remote region.


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## Iggy_Pop (9 July 2012)

8% drop today, not looking good. Will the take over happen? At this point I will hold on to the NDRC provisional approval at the end of July. Time for the brave :sword:


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## The Muffin Man (14 July 2012)

Jewels, it's a good article that one. SDL has been a victim of circumstance. First there was the fact the company went looking for funds and partners around the GFC 1 stage, then there was the plane crash, now the company / Hanlong is still looking for funds in this current climate of tight lending. I sold out of SDL a few months ago and moved the funds elsewhere, to IO entities that aren't going to struggle with financing. A quite risky hold at the moment, the upcoming NDRC decision is huge.


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## Jewels (16 July 2012)

Hi Muffin Man,
Well the latest 3B really has me worried.  UBS are out now, so I'm fully expecting Hanlong to post a notice saying that they can't get the finance. Looks like the Hanlong Bid is doomed.  Why else would UBS be selling out 2 weeks before the announcement from the NDRC?
We know that Sundance leaks like Brendon Fevola, after a binge.
Maybe a buying opportunity is about to present itself, sub 20 cents maybe?
Any thoughts anyone?


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## prawn_86 (31 July 2012)

One of the former Hanlong execs has just pleased guilty to insider trading of SDL, amongst other stocks... PErhaps it was just a pump and dump after all?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-31/hanlong-exec-guilty-of-insider-trading/4166594


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## FreshTrader (2 August 2012)

What are we thinking SDL is going to announce on Aug 9th?


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## CarbonSteel (2 August 2012)

Why are we talking about the "acquisition price"? I thought it was already set at 57 measley cents.


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## Jewels (5 August 2012)

It would appear the Gig is up. With Hanlong holding a blocking stake, no other bid is likely to succeed.  At the last AGM George stated that the Cameroon Government was "very comfortable" dealing with China.  I imagine quite a few palms have been greased since.I have been told that major shareholders have been approached already to find out what price they would be prepared to vote yes too, and we had Paul DiNardi at the last AGM state that the board had already noticed a re weighting of the share register towards hedge funds looking to cash in on the takeover.
The one and only question that we need to know the answer to is what is the likely hood that the Government of Cameroon will not issue the permits to Sundance if the Hanlong bid is not successful? Going on Georges' comment at the last AGM I'd say highly likely!
So it would appear that we have been out smarted at every turn, and that ever since the 19th of June 2010, the Chinese have had an in fallible game plan.
Makes you wonder if the plane crash was really an accident, doesn't it?


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## CarbonSteel (7 August 2012)

Jewels said:


> It would appear the Gig is up. With Hanlong holding a blocking stake, no other bid is likely to succeed.  At the last AGM George stated that the Cameroon Government was "very comfortable" dealing with China.  I imagine quite a few palms have been greased since.I have been told that major shareholders have been approached already to find out what price they would be prepared to vote yes too, and we had Paul DiNardi at the last AGM state that the board had already noticed a re weighting of the share register towards hedge funds looking to cash in on the takeover.
> The one and only question that we need to know the answer to is what is the likely hood that the Government of Cameroon will not issue the permits to Sundance if the Hanlong bid is not successful? Going on Georges' comment at the last AGM I'd say highly likely!
> So it would appear that we have been out smarted at every turn, and that ever since the 19th of June 2010, the Chinese have had an in fallible game plan.
> Makes you wonder if the plane crash was really an accident, doesn't it?




Yes indeedy, these directors must now hang their heads in shame.
SKY BUSINESS NEWS REPORTED TONIGHT (07/08/12) THAT HANLONG HAS NOW REDUCED ITS OFFER TO $0.40! To think of the money these directors have stolen from investors through cheap options makes me sick and disgusted. Just go away guys. Hope your respective reputations and careers have died along with the forlorn hope of those you duped.


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## Jewels (9 August 2012)

I have had enough of Hanlong now, and frankly if they returned to their original 57c offer I would now vote NO! I simply do not want to be involved with a company that has such a dishonorable ethos.  Remembering that the opportunistic Hanlong purchased the Talbot stake (some 16 odd %) I believe with borrowed funds that will need to be paid back, so for Hanlong, this takeover being rejected will be just as painful.

Is a plan B in place? Well only the board know that for sure:

If it were me, this is how I would proceed.
This project is simply to important to the government and the people of Cameroon to let it wallow in the squalor of sino-anglo relationships.
What most people have to come to grips with is that this is not a mining project.  It is infact an infrastructure project. There are many mines in the area that require the infrastructure to be in place, before one sod of dirt can be turned over.
So the infra structure that needs to be in place is the rail and the port. I'd set up a company with a non discretionary trustee.  This company would be equally funded by say five of the major miners in the area, Sundance, Core etc, a float on the London exchange should then provide additional funds to get this project up and running. I'm envisaging a BOOT operation, where as after 25 years the infrastructure is then returned to the Government of Cameroon, where it can either run the whole project, lease it back to the entity on a right of first refusal, or on lease to somebody else. Obviously the original mining companies who stumped up the cash would have very beneficial cartage contracts.
Once this occurs the Cappex for all the mining projects in the are is reduced considerably.
This would allow Mbalam and Nabeeba to effectively be funded on a good off take agreement, maybe a Posco or a Tata may be interested.
The pay back to the infrastructure company would come by charging a fee per tonne, say $10.00 per tonne on a hundred million tonnes P.A. A billion dollar a year cash flow for 25 years?
This would also lead to a more stable Iron ore province.  At the moment the first mover advantage is simply too great.  By the time you are receiving your first cash flows, other "juniors" will be needing to negotiate rail agreements, the place would become the world headquarters for legal firms specializing in M&A's!
So If I was on the board I'd be showing Hanlong the bird, and putting plan B in action.
I understand the short term pain, but I have held this stock too long, believing that it is a game changer for Cameroon, to see it Bastardized by Hanlong.
Now this is just my point of view, my plan B;
So what are your thoughts?
I'm just tired of all the speculation and rehashed media being "leaked" by whoever, thought I'd try and get a constructive thought process goig.
Ciao


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## FreshTrader (15 August 2012)

I just want out. When will the circus end?


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## CarbonSteel (17 August 2012)

Agree 100% Jewels. There is nothing to add except possibly making it company policy TO NOT DEAL WITH DISHONOURABLE CHINESE.
Can only hope plan B is effected and that the Hang-on longtime grubs are out of pocket with nothing to show for it but debt. The bigger the better.


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## Joules MM1 (17 August 2012)

CarbonSteel said:


> ...making it company policy TO NOT DEAL WITH DISHONOURABLE CHINESE.....




not deal with *before* theyre dishonourable or *after* theyre dishonourable? cos if it's before, well, you know what youre saying, don't you......and if it's afterward, well, a wasted excercise.....

your comment.....it's tad off key, dont ya think?


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## CarbonSteel (21 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> not deal with *before* theyre dishonourable or *after* theyre dishonourable? cos if it's before, well, you know what youre saying, don't you......and if it's afterward, well, a wasted excercise.....
> 
> your comment.....it's tad off key, dont ya think?




Thanks mate. That's what we need right now, personal attacks. Try to concentrate on some input instead. We all need commiseration right now, not this rubbish


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## CarbonSteel (27 August 2012)

And still we have a bunch of "directors" who found it impossible to nail down a date in December. Unbelievable. Good luck with your next job application. For SDL it's been "fail" & then "fail and then "fail" again.
Totally destroyed the spirit of those who gave their lives.
VOTE NO TO THIS DEAL. REPLACE THE ENTIRE "BOARD".
What a bunch of losers.


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## Crom (28 August 2012)

As a holder I understand your frutration Carbon but don't know what else they could do.  

They have said they can't develop the project by themselves and need either a partner or takeover.

SDL now have a floor price with penalties if broken.  Exclusivity with Hanlong is now off so SDL is free to seek other bidders.

Quite frankly though Carbon, if there are no other bidders then this project is a dead duck without Hanlong.  Meaning SDL could not walk away from the table without a deal.  Yes it's dissapointing but that was the reality for SDL.

I would like to think that given the quality and size of the resource, and that many of the approvals with involved Gov'ts have and are being gainned, that SDL must be looking very attractive to some of the big players.

In fact I find it very interesting that BHP in particular have put a hold on Olympic dam and sold uranium assts, freeing up capital.  Very interesting indeed!

CROM


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## prawn_86 (28 August 2012)

Crom said:


> In fact I find it very interesting that BHP in particular have put a hold on Olympic dam and sold uranium assts, freeing up capital.  Very interesting indeed!
> 
> CROM




If you are trying to imply that BHP would look at a project like this then you are way off the mark imo. BHP have heaps of better IO assets, more developed, in countries that carry a lot less sovereign risk.

SDL has always been a problem stock due to its project location and the fact that it needs such a big CAPEX to get the project off the ground.

All imo


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## CarbonSteel (28 August 2012)

Crom said:


> As a holder I understand your frutration Carbon but don't know what else they could do.
> 
> They have said they can't develop the project by themselves and need either a partner or takeover.
> 
> ...




I think that these "directors" have taken their nice cheap options, made thousands, if not millions and never had any intention of trying to find financiers for this project. $4.3b is not a lot in the scheme of things and the projected returns even on today's IO price are nothing short of astronomical. Of course, to just sacrifice the SH's and sell the company to Chinese grubs is easy and profitable FOR THE DIRECTORS only. Do you think it is impossible to finance & mine this project as SDL?
I do not agree that these directors have "done their best" for their shareholders. Rather, they don't like working for their money. 
I really feel that effort seeking finance for the project would have been a better option & I have said that from the getgo. 
Too lazy for the harder option. To easy to make money from "performance" options. I will never again invest in any company in which these individuals are involved. Casello was sold as having a lot of experience in dealing with Chinese grubs. They have made him look like a rank amateur.


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## prawn_86 (28 August 2012)

CarbonSteel said:


> Do you think it is impossible to finance & mine this project as SDL?




Yes.

SDL have no history and the management do not have the credentials to pull of a project of this scale. All in an environment where companies are focusing on reducing CAPEX and it is getting harder to obtain financing. It is impossible for SDL to get a loan of this size or investment to raise anywhere near $4b.

Even co's like BHP are divesting assets and putting off high CAPEX projects as they do not think it is worthwhile developing certain things in the near term.

Even if this project were in Aus I highly doubt they would be able to get the required funding, let alone with the added sovereign risk their project carries. It's just too high a risk for any lenders


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## notting (6 September 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> BHP have heaps of better IO assets, more developed, in countries that carry a lot less sovereign risk.
> SDL has always been a problem stock due to its project location and the fact that it needs such a big CAPEX to get the project off the ground.




BHP or one of the other two big ones woud be interested in the sense that it will be quite a low cost producer and is a large find, not something they would want to compete against.  Like Gina pointed out $2 a day for labor is hard to beat with a high au $. and au labor costs.  
How much more the shipping adds to it is significant I believe though the new supertankers may help with that.
The problem is the 20% holding that Hanlog managed to extract out of the family before letting the world know of it's intentions.  That's big enough to block other take overs, I am told. 
Even putting another bid on the table would make it harder however.
They should.
What you may see is the Chinese fake a walk away, then come back with an agressive offer to share holders at about 30c after the price tanks to about 12c and people have stopped even thinking about it.
That's what they did with RCI, check out how all that went down.  After the Chinese bid off an alternate bidder. I suggested this would happen at the start of all this action when the offer first came through, so far it has apart from the fact that this board accepted the bid where as RCI rejected the return aggressive bid that was pitched directly to beaten up shareholders.


Those that held all the way through the RCI rubbish, ended up getting their bacon! 45c is probably as good as it will get unless one of the others comes in to make it harder, they should, but let's face it they haven't taken out WPL and that should of been done.

Iron ore at $100 takes out about 20 to 30% of producers around the world including the Chinese!  The Chinese are deliberatly downing the price but using up existing stock piles (the consume %60 or the worlds Iron Ore.)  It's not nearly as bad as people are thinking.  This is how they try to run the world and at the moment have a bit of an effect just look at what they did with rare earths and are still getting away with it. 
 Let's hope they don't get too much more!


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## prawn_86 (22 October 2012)

Hanlong deadline extended to Jan 11th. This one is certainly dragging out for holders...


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## notting (22 October 2012)

Just up to the share holders now!!


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## Jewels (5 November 2012)

Hi Westcott,
Could you please email me at throbatron@hotmail.com.
I am looking at taking legal action to prevent the scheme vote occurring before the granting of the permits/mining convention.
Would like to gauge the level of support.
Thanks Jewels


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## Jewels (6 November 2012)

Have been advised this would be an exercise in futility.
Thanks all


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## Jewels (30 November 2012)

Convention has been signed. See ASX release
 Just on my way to the AGM, will up date when I get home from the cricket.
Want to know if this weeks 3b means that Nabeeba has been up graded to 400 Million Tonnes @ 60%+, as per 2008 agreement?
If so, why no resource up grade?
Go Punter!!!
South Africa's Batsmen Vs Aussie Newbie Bowlers?????????????
Best wishes to all,
Ciao Jewels!


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## Jewels (2 December 2012)

Got a bit carried away after the first two days of the cricket. We are lucky that they decided to bat first up.
So got to the AGM, unfortunately Missed GJ's presentation that was on the big screen, I take it beamed live from Africa. Got Fridays meeting time mixed up with the starting time of the meeting on the 14th.
So to business.  The meeting was chaired by Fiona Harris, with Barry Eldridge, Robin Marshall, Robin Langley and Brian Conrick at the long desk.
All four resolutions were carried, with little descent.
Robin Longley, (Geologist and mining engineer) who's the GM of Geology and Exploration then gave the next presentation. He went on a bit about how he signs off on the disclaimer, and that he takes it very seriously, I felt a bit like he was trying to underline what an expert he was.
He went on to say that they had now defined 775 Million Tonnes of ittabirite.
Now here's the killer. I've been following Sundance since 2008. I got involved because the Aeromags suggested that we were only just scratching the surface of what was there, I thought back then that we had about 10 Billion Tonnes, well Robin Longley, for the first time officially to my knowledge, said that the directors believed that there was between*9 to 13 BILLION TONNES OF ITTABIRITE*
Accordingly stage two had immense scope in duration, or in other words this mine is going to produce for decades longer than originally anticipated. Makes 45 cents a share look like even more of a bargain doesn't it?  Or back of the envelope calculations, Roughly 3 Billion shares, assume 10 Billion tonnes, about *13.5 cents per tonne!* I'd based all my calculations in 2008 (post GFC) on about a dollar a tonne.............What would I know!
Now there were no other presentations to talk about, but question time was entertaining.
The first question was*"Why haven't directors brought any shares in the company?* Well I thought that the answer was obvious, why would a director put their own money in when the remuneration committee keeps granting them shares/options, for initiating things, rather than the successful completion of negotiations, or based on share price milestones?? My feelings were that clearly the remuneration committee were guaranteeing the directors millions of dollars in payments, regardless of the price that Hanlong eventually take the company over for.  Fiona Harris answered. Basically the directors always believed that a deal was imminent. (Hanlong were obviously very good at pulling the wool over the directors eyes if that is the case) And all those other parties that we have heard were running a fine tooth comb over the data room must have been making some very promising overtures, even though they knew that Hanlong held a blocking stake, and that this precluded other Chinese entities from bidding! Now we all know that a director can't trade shares when they are in possession of knowledge that is not commonly known to the market. Fiona went on to say that she is a director of many other companies (obviously then she is picking up many other directors fees) Keeping in Mind that Fiona is on the remuneration committee, that in the 2012 report Fiona was paid $105,000.00 and 221,803 shares (or options, just from Sundance)  Why would she pay and buy her own shares?? In fairness Fiona and Barry Eldridge (who is also on the remuneration committee) agreed that they also have mortgages and children in private schools. Just like a lot of other people who have put there own hard earned cash into the company I thought.
Also Fiona went on to state an argument that Non-executive directors shouldn't own shares in a company, due to conflicting interests. Not a argument that I support, and in all honesty, it appeared to be an argument that she was stating, but didn't believe in herself.
Next question *Will the next reserves/resource update be before the next scheme meeting? *
Now I know I found this hard to believe, but they don't know!!!! They know it is going to be a spectacular update, but the directors do not know if it will be released before the vote!!! (the question was answered by Robin Langley)  This also leads to the 3b released early last week, but I'll get to that later.
The next question was *Are Hanlong and the Board of Sundance IN Bed?* William in the same question went on to say that the game was over for the past 18 months, that the employees of the company that WE own, have been working exclusively for Hanlong for that period (obviously at our expense).
Fiona responded to the question, buy saying that the board had been trying to get another offer, only a slightly more verbose.
Another shareholder then asked *How stable was the Congo Government?* I could see how he got confused with the two Congo's.  Robyn Longley politely answered that their current president had been put back in power, to add stability, after a long stint as president in the 1990's.  That mining investment was increasing considerably, and that mining companies didn't invest a lot when they were worried about sovereign risk.
Now the 3b. Scott asked *Given the 3b lodged earlier in the week, and no accompanying resource upgrade, has the agreement from 2008 been altered?* For those of you unaware the agreement was announced in 2008 and in part relates to the purchase of Nabeeba.  The following is an extract of the announcement:
Tranche 1 – the issue of 5 million Sundance ordinary shares to Cominvest as follows: 
(i) 1,000,000 Sundance ordinary shares upon receipt of  any necessary  shareholder approval,
upon receipt of any Government approvals as required under Congo and Cameroon law and 
completion of legal due diligence;
(ii) 4,000,000 Sundance ordinary shares upon completion of an airborne aeromagnetic survey 
and exploration report and completion of a number of administrative tasks;
Tranche 2 – the issue of 14 million ordinary Sundance shares to Cominvest on the definition of 200 million 
tonnes of hematite reserves (as defined by the JORC Code) grading +60% Fe;
Tranche 3 – the issue of a further 14 million ordinary Sundance shares to Cominvest on the definition of 400 
million tonnes of hematite reserves (as defined by the JORC Code) grading +60% Fe.
Now Fiona answered the question.  Apparently the agreement had been changed! As a shareholder it would have been nice to know this, maybe it could have been released to the market with the 3b? I know it's not required by law, just corporate good manners I would have thought. Fiona gave the reason for the change as being " to provide more certainty" and guarantee a payout to Cominvest. Would this imply the agreement was dead if Hanlong took over, or maybe Hanlong may re-neg? either way not flattering that they felt the necessity to change the agreement, BEFORE THEY RELEASE THE UPDATE, POSSIBLY BEFORE THE VOTE!!!
Now the next question was interesting*Is the Nabeeba permit to mine required by Hanlong for the scheme of arrangement to go ahead?* The short answer is YES!!!! Hanlong can still pull out without penalty if the Congo Mining permit is not granted before the 18/12/2013.  Call me cynical, but I'm not expecting a cheque in the 8th of January next year. It is not impossible that George and Guillio may not be able to bed down the Congo agreements in the next couple of weeks, although I have a huge amount of respect for George, as he was one of the other reasons I decided to invest back in 2008 (I was with a little company called Portman in 1996).  If anyone can bring it home in the next two weeks it's George.
The final question was: *Is the ratification of the Mbalam Convention by the Cameroonian Government required by Hanlong for the takeover to proceed?*  Once again Fiona answered the question.  Basically all the people involved in the Cameroon Government to date are the people who make the decisions.  The fact that the convention has been signed, basically meant that it was a fait accompli that the ratification would go ahead.  She also mentioned that Hanlong were prepared to take the risk.
So there you have it, I didn't stick around to talk to anyone as I had to go to the cricket.
So this is not financial advice, this is just the way that I see it:
Hanlong have totally outfoxed the board at every turn.  The board have used Hanlong to get the licenses and the agreements in place.  Now I want to say here that I am a "Mum & Dad" investor, but even so the difference in the bid prices will cost me tens of thousands of dollars.
Sundance has the Mbalam convention signed.
Sundance is expecting between *9 to 13 BILLION  TONNES of ittabirite* To me this, and the forthcoming upgrade, renders the independent experts report redundant.
The mine life will be *Decades Longer* than originally forecast.
The Geology is basically the same as Vales Brazillian mines, these have been going for 4 or 5 decades to date.
Chinese companies are precluded from agreeing to off take agreements for Mbalam whilst the takeover is progressing.
Hanlongs "employees" have been charged with insider trading, not just on Sundance shares.
Hanlong have reneged on other takeovers.
A Hanlongs employee is so dishonorable that he has left his wife in Australia, and refuses to come back to face charges of insider trading, even though his supposed heart condition allowed him to fly back to China in the first place.
Last AGM Paul DeNardi stated that the board had already noticed a change in the register towards hedge funds waiting on the 57 cent offer from Hanlong.
I'm going to put my money where my mouth is.  I'm going to ask the board to work harder, they've done most of the hard work, we have something now, so get back out there and get some off take agreements in place and lets not give away this resource for what is such a meager offer. The only way that can happen is if enough people vote no to the Hanlong agreement at the next meeting. 
If you are not happy with the way this scheme of arrangement has been conducted to date, then get to the meeting on the 14/12/2012 at 10am and let your feelings be known to the board. 
*I'm going to ask my board to work harder for me, get rid of Hanlong, they've done their job now, we now have something of worth, so i'll be voting NO!*
Ciao Jewels


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## notting (5 December 2012)

New date commitments should have come with another 14mil break fee.
If Hanlong are serious this would mean nothing to them.


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## skc (5 December 2012)

notting said:


> New date commitments should have come with another 14mil break fee.
> If Hanlong are serious this would mean nothing to them.




Picking a day in the middle of Chinese New year and saying that it will be all OK.... 

I don't like it...


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## CarbonSteel (14 December 2012)

Thank you for the in-depth coverage Jewels. Agree with your decision to vote "no" 100%. Hopefully the instos will have the testes to follow suit and bring some real pressure to bear!


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## Jewels (21 December 2012)

Merry Christmas to all SDL shareholders.  The share price would suggest that the rumored counter bid looks like it is going the same direction as the rumored off take agreements of previous years. My wish for us all is that Santa offers us a counter bid, forcing a counter counter bid from the China Development Bank, but I'm not holding my breath.
Remember at the last AGM Sundance announced they are targeting between 9 to 13 Billion tonnes of Iron Ore! A project to produce 10% of Cameroons GDP, and a billion dollar cash flow based on Iron Ore prices less than half of today's price. I'm about to go off grid for the rest of the year, so stay Happy, Healthy and Safe over the festive season, may you spend some quality time with those you love, and may Christmas 2012 be your best one yet.
Merry Christmas 
Jewels


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## notting (21 December 2012)

Just quietly I think the Chinese really, really want this.


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## notting (31 December 2012)

Last year, Bloomberg bumped this up like you wouldn't believe over Christmas.
This year Sky Business has been doing the same.
They even said that all the conditions are now in place for the contract of purchase to proceed now that SDL has this latest approval announced today by the local government.
That's true, in that Sundance has the conditions in place, but Hanlon has plenty of loop holes it can still escape through with limited loss of face as they all head off for the Chinese new year.
Also, the previous date for the deal to be done was December 15. 
Nothing about this 'condition' fullfilled today was mentioned as a cause for latest delay.

It would now be a good time for an alternate bidder to come to the table if this thing is as good as they all say.

One of the big three BHP, RIO or Vale should have a go just to keep China out of sabotaging the supply side.

This is pretty big for Austalia if we lose it.


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## notting (2 January 2013)

At the risk of making this my blog.

It's a bit strange that the Chinese have published, in their local media, that Hanlon are all set to complete the deal.
The Chinese usually like to do these things without too many people noticing.
It makes me wonder if they would actually like a competing bidder to come in so they can offload.
If the deposite is as good as all say, then you'd really think the other big 3 would have a crack at what would be a bargain and supply inhibiting stake.
Their has been a bit of selling going on, into this holiday media pumped rally, including me because I'v already got 20% on a big steak and these things are always risky to bet big on with frightening gap to the downside on another delay.
But Just the same I think if the deposite is as good as reported.  
The Chinese really want this and the others are asleep at the wheel.


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## The Muffin Man (9 January 2013)

notting, the others are not asleep at the wheel. The fact is that the big 3-4 mining houses have tens of billions of tonnes of iron ore in their reserves already, and they have these reserves in Australia and South America. These mining houses see expansion of their current mines as far more logical than trying to start greenfield projects in untried jurisdictions. SDL's projects may, one day, if all goes exactly according to plan, mine somewhere between 50-100mt per annum. This is an "all going to plan perfectly" scenario. The current plans are to produce 35mtpa. Total iron ore production is tipped to reach 2Bn tonnes per annum shortly and increase towards 3Bn tonnes per annum over the next decade and onwards. To put it kindly, SDL's tenements are but a tiny drop in the overall IO landscape, and they are situated in the middle of Africa with no associated infrastructure and all of the political and sovereign risk. It's no wonder the big mining houses would prefer to expand their operations in the Pilbara and in South America rather than take on such risk. SDL is not the IO cartel breaking asset some people make it out to be. If, somehow, the Chinese manage to squeeze out 100mtpa out of the area in 10 years time (highly, highly, HIGHLY unlikely), it's only going to be maybe 4% of total global production. It's not large enough to have any say in IO prices whatsoever.

There might be 9Bt of itabirite on the tenements, but you need to remember that the itabirite is situated in the third quartile of the cost curve when looking at OPEX. This is according to SDL's own cost curve graphs. The DSO has a very low OPEX, the itabirite does not. RIO and BHP can expand their Pilbara DSO operations exponentially and remain far below SDL's itabirite OPEX, and if, as predicted, we see IO supply catch up with demand over the next 5-10 years, SDL's itabirite will start to look more like a marginal producer. If the itabirite's OPEX is $50p/t+ in 10 years time and supply has caught up with demand thanks to aggressive BHP/RIO/Vale/FMG expansion, how attractive is the itabirite resource then?

The big IO mining houses will have looked at this in great detail, and if they don't make a move on SDL it's because they have better options available to them. These options will most likely be expanding their current operations, while they let the Chinese spend untold billions in the middle of Africa trying to get SDL off the ground. Just look at what's happened with Sino in WA.

Edit: I'll add that RIO has it's Simandou project and it looks like BHP may be awarded Belinga in Gabon, so it's not as though the big miners are ignoring Africa altogether, it's just that the next increase in production over the next decade is going to come from expansion of mines and infrastructure already in place.


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## notting (9 January 2013)

Thank you for your reply Muffin Man.

The media, and others have been calling this as a potential 20% global hog in 3 years!
Why they are all doing that is kind of crazy if what you say is true and it sounds like you know what you are talking about.
The Chinese have invested 600B in a plot next door to SDLs plot, which is syncronistic and makes it a bit more viable in terms of size relative to infrastructure investment required. 
The sovereign risk is something they have played quite successfully over there, in their way,:2evil: to date.
You have finally given a clarifying statement that has been evasive to this point.

So thanks again for the bite!


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## notting (10 January 2013)

notting said:


> .
> The Chinese have invested 600B



Sorry about that number!!!! It should be Million of course!!


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## The Muffin Man (11 January 2013)

notting said:


> Thank you for your reply Muffin Man.
> 
> *The media, and others have been calling this as a potential 20% global hog in 3 years!*
> Why they are all doing that is kind of crazy if what you say is true and it sounds like you know what you are talking about.
> ...




Do you mean just the SDL tenements and those surrounding it? IMO there's no chance of that happening. A '20% global hog' would mean they'd have to be producing 400MT from the area and the infrastructure palns only have a capacity of 100MT. Keep in mind that the Chinese also have very little experience in operating mines like the ones planned at Mbalam & Nabeba, and that they have to build a 500KM railway through dense jungle before mining 1 tonne of product. The Sino project in WA had a starting budget of $2Bn and it's blown out to $8Bn now. Granted labour in Australia is far dearer but Africa poses unique problems of it's own. You need to assess the planned output from the region against global output. If global output is 2btpa and SDL's tenements are producing 35mtpa (or 1.75% of production), what effect will the area really have on prices? If in 10 years time the global output is 2.5btpa thanks to RIO/BHP/FMG aggressive expansion already in the works and the SDL tenement area is producing 100mtpa (still highly unlikely in my opinion), that's still only representing 4% of global production. 

If you're taking a greater view in regards to that 20% figure and encompassing all of Africa, I still think the 3 year time frame is going to be way off the mark. In time (decades) Africa will grow to be a bigger player. The mining houses have seen this and have moved in to specific areas (RIO with Simandou, BHP may be getting Belinga), but that's way down the track when the mining houses have maxed out expansion in South America and Australia IMO. If they don't make a play on SDL, the big mining houses have judged that the best use of their capital is to expand their existing operations, and I don't blame them for making that assessment.


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## notting (11 January 2013)

The Muffin Man said:


> Do you mean just the SDL tenements and those surrounding it?



The way the media and not just one source have been promoting it!!! is as if it is the stand alone plot that SDL have.  The 600M investment in a plot next door is from another Chinese company pretending to be something different.

In General, you can hire experience.
I agree that 3 years seems unrealistic.



[quote="The Muffin Man said:


> If in 10 years time the global output is 2.5btpa thanks to RIO/BHP/FMG aggressive expansion already in the works and the SDL tenement area is producing 100mtpa (still highly unlikely in my opinion), that's still only representing 4% of global production.




Fair point.

However, what the Chinese will attempt to do is manipulate the price in general as been so blatantly obvious over the last 6 months, where they shut down imports and production and made many purchases in the sectore and failed at few, did the same with oil using up reserves and made the biggest purchasing in oil globally ever. 
Even causing ministers to declair an end of the mining boom!!

On top of the manipulation they will, more and more use their own suppliers which they have increased investment in over the last 5 months!  They will use SDL and other plots to cause FMG and others to be less agressive with their expansion plans. Thus gain leverage supply capacity and control to supply themselves over the big 3.  
Many of the managers of the larger companies who are still scailing back as confirmed again by RIO yesterday, despite the rebound or ore prices.
But any way.  

The main thing is whether the media has basically been lying to the public on a large scale probably due to repeating what they hear from orther media pools, rather than checking the information with experts in the field, about the size and impact of SDL which, you are saying is not 20% potential in 3 or 4 years.
You'd think someone would have popped their head up and said this is crap.


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## The Muffin Man (11 January 2013)

IMO there's no way SDL's tenements and the immediate area is going to be providing 20% of global production in 3 years, or 10 years.

The mining houses can't buy every single IO deposit out there. Remember also that after the DSO, of which there is only a 775mt reserve (775mt really is quite small when you look at it in the context of the big 3 miners and their reserves), the deposits switch to itabirite. The 10Bn tonnes being touted is mainly itabirite and that's in the 3rd quartile of the cost curve. The itabirite really isn't anything special, and it's not as good as the DSO resources RIO & BHP already own in Australia. So, does it make more sense for one of these big mining houses to stump up $6.5Bn+ ($1.5Bn+ takeover and at least $5Bn for first stage CAPEX) for a project in the middle of the jungle in Africa to access 775mt DSO and a massive amount of itabirite, or use that $6.5Bn+ to access billions of tonnes of DSO in Australia?

Take RIO for example, it has a ridiculously low OPEX on it's DSO operations in Australia, something like $30p/t. So, they can allocate $6.5Bn of their capital to expanding their DSO operations in Australia and keep churning out billions of tonnes of ore at that $30p/t OPEX, or invest in SDL's tenements, where after the 775mt of DSO runs out that has an OPEX of $25p/t, they have to start mining itabirite that has an OPEX of $50. Just strictly on those sums it doesn't seem logical to be allocating that money to Africa, and that's before assessing political/sovereign risk, African unskilled labour markets etc. 

"Many of the managers of the larger companies who are still scailing back as confirmed again by RIO yesterday"

Correct, so does that scarce capital of the big mining houses now get allocated to Australia or Africa? IMO it'll be Australia, hands down.


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## notting (11 January 2013)

The Muffin Man said:


> Correct, so does that scarce capital of the big mining houses now get allocated to Australia or Africa? IMO it'll be Australia, hands down.




I'm not sure it's scarce capital making them scale back, it's more like slowing down due to more supply.
BHP announced that demand is till strong however there is more supply on the market which they were saying is one reason why the Ore price has the potentual to settle at lower levels to it's current price.

I accept that perhaps there is not going to be another bidder at this point for SDL and if what you say about the size of it not being as great as all the talking heads have been saying then that would make some sense.
I really appreciate your input.
Thank you.


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## The Muffin Man (11 January 2013)

notting said:


> I'm not sure it's scarce capital making them scale back, it's more like slowing down due to more supply.
> BHP announced that demand is till strong however there is more supply on the market which they were saying is one reason why the Ore price has the potentual to settle at lower levels to it's current price.
> 
> I accept that perhaps there is not going to be another bidder at this point for SDL and if what you say about the size of it not being as great as all the talking heads have been saying then that would make some sense.
> ...




No worries, I like the discussion. 

I wasn't meaning the mining houses don't have the money, I was meaning they are scaling back how much they are prepared to invest in CAPEX over the next few years. Their CAPEX budgets have been trimmed, so money available for CAPEX spending has become more scarce. IMO they will allocate the bulk of this reduced CAPEX to expanding Australian operations before taking on greenfield African projects.


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## notting (7 February 2013)

There was never any doubt in my mind that the so called smaller privately owned *Chinese* resource company *Hanlon was just a tug boat for China Co*.

Now, of course, the *Chinese* have gone through the play acting of being instructed by *China Co's NDRC* to sign up a much larager *China Co* resource company to 'partner them in this large project'.

The whole point of *trying to look like a mino without state backing* was to *keep the price down* and keep trying to push it down.

It was a smart move by SDL to voluntarily suspend whilst Hanlon came up with something a little more substantial in it's attempt to appear like it's dragging it's feet, again to try to push the price down.

It is interesting and comical that *China Co's NDRC* has specifically instructed Hanlon that it must partner with another much larger *Chinese Company* in order to get the funding it needs to make the deal.  They didn't say get any partner!!  :dunno: Geeee wonder why?

*Miraculusly* Hanlon are already in advanced stages of negotiations with such a larger Chinese Resource Company to help them clinch the deal.  So advanced, in fact, that the new deadline for the deal is AOK for lift off.

WOW that was slick.  Let's all take a break for the new year of the  of the aahh uuumm  *snake*.

It also explains why the Chinese propaganda machine was reporting in the state controlled Chinese media that Chinese owned Hanlon were going to get the asset, however, were also looking for someone to partner them in the deal. Preping to make it seem less miraculous that the privatly owned Chinese Hanlon could so easily get the larger Chinese Co partner, on board.!?

If our media report this with headlines like "Another Delay as it re opens tomorrow, there could be a window of opportunity for the savvy!:dance:

Unless of course it's a last stage bluff to try and draw in a bigger player to the table so they can offload, but I don't think so.  They could also come back and say, Well, we got this big partner, but they only wonna pay 30c per share.  Doubt it.

Ill be going for gold if it tanks!

View attachment SDL.pdf


Disclaimer - Takeovers are very risky to play, in an arena that is very risky. Be prepaired to lose more than 20% in the blink of an eye if China Co. walks cause SDL got buckleys of getting this thing off the ground on their own!


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## Iggy_Pop (7 February 2013)

One lesson I have learn't is if a Chinese Company is involved in the takeover - sell. When the 57c deal was first announced, share price hit 54c for a few days, and I did think about moving on and selling. Now eighteen months later we may get 45c. 

I will still hang out for the conclusion.


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## notting (8 February 2013)

Iggy_Pop said:


> One lesson I have learn't is if a Chinese Company is involved in the takeover - sell.




Absolutly!

ASIC Should prosecute on this - 

View attachment SDL Credit Swiss.pdf


Oh look at where they are based!!
Credit Suisse *Hong Kong*  to buy again soon? I wonder.
The announcement - no longer substantial share holder statement - came out on the day the stock stopped trading!
Bit obvious, leave it to another.
I'll bet bribes to Hanlon on that one!
Buying at .29 .285 so far.


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## mr. jeff (8 February 2013)

I don't know that there is much to be surprised about with anything that happens with SDL. 
Will the drop today find support or are holders selling out ? 
Is this another tempting but idiotic stock to be looking at at this moment - the wrangling for this company makes for a sore head.


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## notting (8 February 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Is this another tempting but idiotic stock to be looking at at this moment - the wrangling for this company makes for a sore head.




That's exactly how they want you to be thinking.

It's a bit like rubbing someone’s ego up telling them how great you think they are, then slamming them all over the shop in public whilst you take them for all they are worth!!
Demoralise, divide, conquer, enslave!


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## notting (26 February 2013)

Sleezy buying whilst markets are rattled!
It's on!


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## Joe Blow (26 February 2013)

notting said:


> Sleezy buying whilst markets are rattled!
> It's on!




Can you please explain what you mean by this? What is "sleezy buying"?


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## notting (26 February 2013)

Joe Blow said:


> Can you please explain what you mean by this? What is "sleezy buying"?



By sleazy buying I mean - when the market has become full of unrest and political headlines and so forth are dominating the air ways, distracting the majorities attention, sly people who do not want to be noticed buying up on a stock choose such times.


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## Happy (26 February 2013)

Stock recently gave lower low, not by much and with bit of positive interpretation can be seen as double bottom.
For other not good signal to buy right now.

Suppose those who have lots of money can risk some spare money just in case price turns around.

Traders with limited funds wait for good and above all positive signal.


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## Country Lad (26 February 2013)

notting said:


> By sleazy buying I mean - when the market has become full of unrest and political headlines and so forth are dominating the air ways, distracting the majorities attention, sly people who do not want to be noticed buying up on a stock choose such times.




So why does that apply to SDL and not the whole market??

Does that make the buying I have been doing of various companies over recent time sleazy??  Sorry, I can not see your logic.  I will take advantage of any market confusion and do not consider that sleazy. 

Cheers
Country Lad


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## notting (26 February 2013)

Yes.
But your probably not *affiliated* with information regarding probable outcomes of corporate activity, as you make your play.


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## Country Lad (26 February 2013)

notting said:


> Yes.
> But your probably not *affiliated* with information regarding probable outcomes of corporate activity, as you make your play.




So you are saying that you can see that there is insider trading occurring in SDL?  I think this was Joe's concern if you were saying that.


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## notting (26 February 2013)

I want to show you something that got me hitting buttons very hard with all of my hooves.





This happened at the convienient time of 3pm 5 days ago.
I made records of all that went in and out of that trade too.

It *wasn't* an end or start of day trade.  
That's where much of the up tick buying has been since!

As an interested buy stander, I could have sold that much stock on the live market at the first tick buy price 28c.
Could have even got some off at 28.5.
It would have taken a few trades but would not have been that hard and I'm not even a pro!


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## Country Lad (26 February 2013)

Sorry notting, I can't see anything untoward other than a lot of normal selling, most likely clients with large holdings assuming the takeover will not happen and SDL will need to have a huge capital raising later.

In that period from around the 3pm, the broker doing most of the selling was UBS, and I assume that was clients wanting get out of this mess.  None of the other brokers had a pattern of consistent selling.

On that day UBS were on the sell side at a weighted average of 27.4 cents and transacted sells for 37% of the total turnover.  After they unloaded for that client, they stopped selling at 3:29 with their last trade at 26, they were on the buy side for only 3.8% of the number of sells they transacted at a weighted average of 27.3 cents.

Looks to me just their clients wanting out with the drop in price due to selling pressure which we see every day.

Not exactly smashing the price to buy back because they didn't buy them back.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Jewels (26 February 2013)

For what its worth.  The AFR street talk says Posco are sniffing round.
http://www.afr.com/Blogs/Opinion_Street Talk#3eb22bb6-7fce-11e2-9134-ff45ee00173a
Have a splendiforous day!
Ciao


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## skc (26 February 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Looks to me just their clients wanting out with the drop in price due to selling pressure which we see every day.
> 
> Not exactly smashing the price to buy back because they didn't buy them back.




Always great to see facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

It's too easy to assume that evil instos are running stops and manipulating the market. I guess it's convenient for the average punter, as it puts the blame on something else other than their own trading / investing mistakes. Instead of focusing on learning about market behaviour, they turnaround and say that ASIC should investigate...


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## notting (26 February 2013)

Country Lad said:


> I can't see anything untoward other than a lot of normal selling, d



Lad,
It was bouncing between .28 and .285 when a *single* fat finger dropped it to .26 taking all the bases out from underneath it in one hit check the volume to see how much that was.  Again it was one sell order.


skc said:


> It's too easy to assume that evil instos are running stops and manipulating the market. I guess it's convenient for the average punter, as it puts the blame on something else other than their own trading / investing mistakes.




Doggy,
Just being a goofy below average punter, I do try to see if there is a running theme which can support my entry and exits.
On this occasion, I had the stupid idea of loading up the bases under .28 which was the number I was happy to keep buying very aggressively under for some, I donno, stupid reason that only makes sense to me.
Then I decided to whip out the loaded bases when the selling got a bit close for comfort.

This idiot punter felt at the time - If I pull now I’ll get it lower.:homer:

As *luck* would have it, low and behold, it was like pulling the rug out from underneath my mother in law. 
Bang down she came with a big fat thud and in went *piggy* at .265.  :birthday:

Fricken insto’s it’s all their fault.  
I was hoping to get even more at .26 but it didn't come to Sir Pork !
Oh well, ya never know what tomorrow brings. :22_yikes:


----------



## Country Lad (27 February 2013)

notting said:


> Lad,
> It was bouncing between .28 and .285 when a *single* fat finger dropped it to .26 taking all the bases out from underneath it in one hit check the volume to see how much that was.  Again it was one sell order.





Just to set the record straight with the facts, the sequence of trading was:

33 trades at 27.5
32 trades at 27
 2 trades at 26.5
10 trades at 27
27 trades at 26.5
 4 trades at 26
17 trades at 26.5
67 trades at 27

This is a normal pattern for a large parcel placed "at market" price.  

As I said earlier, the selling broker did not buy back so there can be no interpretation of  "smashing the price" to buy back as you assert because they didn't buy them back.

Sorry if it doesn't fit your conspiracy theory, but I tend to deal in the facts.

Cheers
Country lad


----------



## notting (27 February 2013)

Lad,
It was a *single sell order!!!!* *A muppet* will think it's many orders because there are many buy orders waiting underneath it so* it doesn't get recorded as one order*  it gets recorded as individual contracts.
It could easily have been executed prudently at .285 to .28.
The same broker doesn't need to buy them back and they don't need to buy them back on the same day.
That's all too obvious.
It's not a conspiracy, it's not a theory. It's what's happening;
It's as plain as day and so far I'm makeing bucket loads out of it.
I called *'the saga'* from the moment the take over was made when people were complaining at the .56c share offer!!!
It would have sounded nuts at the time, which I was well aware of, and called it so to show how Ausies don't know when their been done from behind, except for Ruddy it seems. *"Rat f&*@#ed"*
Check out how GBG is going.
Once you've smashed the story and smashed the technical you have time.


----------



## Country Lad (27 February 2013)

notting, methinks you are so determined that there is a conspiracy that you are not even reading the post.



notting said:


> Lad,
> It was a *single sell order!!!!*




I said  a *large parcel placed "at market" price*.  What is a large parcel if it isn't a single order?



notting said:


> it doesn't get recorded as one order it gets recorded as individual contracts.




Actually that is not technically correct.  It is recorded to the client as one sell order when placed, and then when filled it is invoiced to the client as one contract.  *I said "trades"* and that is how it shows up in the course of sales - a series of trades making up the one sell order.

Again, sorry if it doesn't fit your conspiracy theory, but I tend to deal in the facts and the fact is the trades were quite normal for a large sell parcel placed at market.  As you are continuing to be quite illogical about it there is no point in my discussing it further.   

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## notting (27 February 2013)

Country Lad said:


> most likely clients with large holdings assuming the takeover will not happen



What was that?  Clients, plural .
:silly:

Mate,

It's not a conspiracy.  
It's an order plain as day, in black and white, that deliberately tanked the price.

You could argue it was a mistake, a fat finger if you really wanted to, just conveniently popped the price one pip under the year support and year low.
It's a little harder to stand by that argument as it was then immediately followed by up tick buying at the open and close of the days trades where volumes can be harder to be percieved as buying unless you looking for the consisten up ticks at those times.  

That's the behaivour of traders who know what they are doing.  Not some fricken moron who would



Country Lad said:


> drop a large parcel placed "at market" price.




Then, being the same moron, thinks he has to buy it all back with the same broker on the same day to improve his holding , there buy undoing the technical break down by getting back in so quick and pushing the price back up over the break.


It fits perfectly with a deliberate attempt to break the technical and buy the stops and everyother trade that freeked when they saw it.

Simple


----------



## notting (28 February 2013)

> Sundance Resources Limited (“Sundance” or the “Company”) (ASX: SDL) advises that it has received A$5
> million from Hanlong (Africa) Mining Investment Limited (“Hanlong”) representing the Tranche 1
> funding under the Convertible Note Facility.
> Sundance Managing Director Giulio Casello said this payment is an encouraging step that demonstrates
> Hanlong’s ongoing commitment to complete its acquisition of Sundance.





This does in no way demonstrate Hanlongs ongoing commitment to complete its acquisition of Sundance as insinuated by the Financial Review earlier this week or as written in this announcement. 
All it demonstrates is that Hanlong are conforming to international contract law which will allow them to continue to operate in that playing field and avoid being sued for a breach!!
Not that I did not expect the Chinese to pay.
 I also expected this insinuation and market reaction!
What?  Would they not hold to contracts after being done already for insider trading, as if!
I do want more however.  Down boy, down.


----------



## notting (28 February 2013)

One thing this cyclone in the Pilbara bought to mind was the strategic importance of an African ally for China.  
Not just for ore supply to the economy in general, if something goes wrong with the Pilbara, but if there was a war, the Chinese may not be able to make lot's of metal things with all the developed world freezing them out of the supply side.


----------



## CarbonSteel (20 March 2013)

Completely out-manouvered at every turn by hangonlongtime.
Now even the directors aren't gonna make money so they might at last think about, and make the effort (yep that means actual work instead of just nice cheap options) to source finance for the project. I'm sure that's what Ken Talbot was aiming at but these guys just thought they'd take the "no effort, easy money" approach. I for one am very glad to see that it didn't work for them. 
Have the testes to roll up your sleeves and do some hard work guys... Or lose all your easy money
By 2016 we could be smiling... Or by the end of 2013 we could all be sueing SDL directors. Is that a class act or a class action. I can never remember.


----------



## notting (21 March 2013)

CarbonSteel said:


> Completely out-manouvered at every turn by hangonlong.




Sundance had no other option, you can't raise 5 Billion to develop the thing without a partner when your capitalisation at .12 share is just $368,653,318.  Which is where it was before the plane was (taken out of the sky) and Hanlong offered the family 45c or what ever it was for a controlling stake.
Sundance have allowed the offer to be lowered to perhaps induce another party but no one came to the table.
I think Muffn Mans post is the best thing I have seen on this saga.
The media and Sundance have been saying that this thing is as big as the Pilbara find!
Hanlon a totally screwed if they don't go ahead because they have spent a fortune buying the shares off the Talbot family but cannot get the funds to make the thing happen.

They seem to have pissed off the Chinese dictators too which puts an extra spanner in the works - 



> It was revealed yesterday that Liu Han, chairman of Hanlong Group, was detained by police in Beijing, along with his ex-wife.
> 
> His current wife and other family members were reportedly "under the control of police" in the Sichuan province, in China's south.
> 
> ...


----------



## Jewels (5 April 2013)

Well looks like the gig is up with Hanlong.  With SDL's share price languishing Hanlongs balance sheet will look so weak that it simply cant raise the required funds to meet the second $5 million tranche, let alone complete the take over.
Best hope for long term shareholders is Hanlong's stake is sold to a Chinese State Owned Enterprise, who then receives funding from the NDRC.  I hate myself as I could so see this coming.
Following is a post from August last year, it may yet come to fruition:

I have had enough of Hanlong now, and frankly if they returned to their original 57c offer I would now vote NO! I simply do not want to be involved with a company that has such a dishonorable ethos. Remembering that the opportunistic Hanlong purchased the Talbot stake (some 16 odd %) I believe with borrowed funds that will need to be paid back, so for Hanlong, this takeover being rejected will be just as painful.

Is a plan B in place? Well only the board know that for sure:

If it were me, this is how I would proceed.
This project is simply to important to the government and the people of Cameroon to let it wallow in the squalor of sino-anglo relationships.
What most people have to come to grips with is that this is not a mining project. It is infact an infrastructure project. There are many mines in the area that require the infrastructure to be in place, before one sod of dirt can be turned over.
So the infra structure that needs to be in place is the rail and the port. I'd set up a company with a non discretionary trustee. This company would be equally funded by say five of the major miners in the area, Sundance, Core etc, a float on the London exchange should then provide additional funds to get this project up and running. I'm envisaging a BOOT operation, where as after 25 years the infrastructure is then returned to the Government of Cameroon, where it can either run the whole project, lease it back to the entity on a right of first refusal, or on lease to somebody else. Obviously the original mining companies who stumped up the cash would have very beneficial cartage contracts.
Once this occurs the Cappex for all the mining projects in the are is reduced considerably.
This would allow Mbalam and Nabeeba to effectively be funded on a good off take agreement, maybe a Posco or a Tata may be interested.
The pay back to the infrastructure company would come by charging a fee per tonne, say $10.00 per tonne on a hundred million tonnes P.A. A billion dollar a year cash flow for 25 years?
This would also lead to a more stable Iron ore province. At the moment the first mover advantage is simply too great. By the time you are receiving your first cash flows, other "juniors" will be needing to negotiate rail agreements, the place would become the world headquarters for legal firms specializing in M&A's!
So If I was on the board I'd be showing Hanlong the bird, and putting plan B in action.
I understand the short term pain, but I have held this stock too long, believing that it is a game changer for Cameroon, to see it Bastardized by Hanlong.
Now this is just my point of view, my plan B;
So what are your thoughts?
I'm just tired of all the speculation and rehashed media being "leaked" by whoever, thought I'd try and get a constructive thought process going.
Maybe with Mr Liu in Gaol, Hanlong may be forced to off load their stake to another SOE, who knows, failing that then the board really should work on breaking up SDL and trying to get value for shareholders.
Just my thoughts


----------



## prawn_86 (9 April 2013)

Deal finally and officially terminated. What a waste of 2 years that was for everyone involved.

Classic example of a micro/small cap stock that will never actually get anywhere, no matter how good its in ground resources are.


----------



## mr. jeff (9 April 2013)

Jewels you probably have more enthusiasm for this project than just about anybody, probably including the board!
Your proposal sounds good, along the right track; but putting a structure like this in place in a country like that - an agreement for a 25 year infrastructure BOOT, there would have to be some major political risk of an asset seizure or similar. 

The actual project to put in that amount of rail through the jungle out there is an incredibly large and complex job which would cost a vast amount of money ( yes everyone knows this already), whoever pays for it. It would probably in the long run be cheaper to maintain supply from other sources and just sit on the deposit in the mean time just to ensure no-one else can do anything with it.

I remember AKI being the alternative smaller IO resource on the other side of the continent which had a much more feasible access route to port, and that got snapped up quick smart, no mucking around at all. 

This is very disappointing and for the sake of holders I hope you see some renewed interest. It could end up floundering for a while before another Chinese/large commodity company just quietly hoovers it up and packs it away.


----------



## springhill (9 April 2013)

Dont discount it could have been a deliberate ploy to drive the SDL share price into the dirt.

Wouldn't suprise me if another 'white knight' offer from the Chinese came in the next 12 months.

Instead of the 40c+ offer, it could now well below 20c or considerably under that. With the suitor saying 'take it or shrivel and die'

SDL are now in a tough spot, no longer the market darling.

The project would now be under their control for a fraction of Hanlong's offer, valuing the resource at basically zero.

If I was orchestrating a purchase of that resource and I was a savvy businessman, that is what I would be doing too.

I do not follow SDL closely so am only theorising.


----------



## notting (9 April 2013)

Two glimmers of hope with this -
If the Chinese want to make a lower bid for SDL in a short space of time they cannot do so as Hanlong it will have to be another Chinese company.
One could hope that with the Princeling wars going on in China at the moment have taken out the Hanlong guys and some other China Princeling wants to take Hanlongs assets and hopefully SDL with it.
Remembering also the Chinese will not allow it's own companies to bid against each other for international assets so Hanlong has to be out of the picture first.

The unlikely side of this is that the main cost is going to be in infrastructure, not buying SDL.
If I were a nasty little Chinaman I would offer a joint partnership with SDL to get SDLs share price up.  Then I'd use SDL share holders money via a capital raising to fund more of the project along with Chinese money, rather than take a full tilt at SDL.  This would mean less investment from the China side but same result - control of the ore.  Then just run the thing at a loss to get the cheap ore for China.
This would be less costly for China to get the ore and is the kind of crap they normally pull on share holders when they get into international companies like what they did to that US solar panel company and others like GBG.

If none of this happens and SDL is just left to sit like a stone in a pond, then one should be a little concerned about the viability of many of the upstart Iron Ore and other projects going on in this country.  Because it means China is not intending to use as much of the stuff as it has in the past and will just rely on the bigger supply coming from the idiots running RIO who keep telling us how they are about to flood the market with the stuff to the great detriment of their own business and the sector.


----------



## prawn_86 (9 April 2013)

notting said:


> If none of this happens and SDL is just left to sit like a stone in a pond, then one should be a little concerned about the viability of many of the upstart Iron Ore and other projects going on in this country.  Because it means China is not intending to use as much of the stuff as it has in the past and will just rely on the bigger supply coming from the idiots running RIO who keep telling us how they are about to flood the market with the stuff to the great detriment of their own business and the sector.




No it means that China will look elsewhere. This has always been a very out of the way project requiring huge infrastructure investment. There are plenty of other projects out there (some would argue better ones too), here in Aus included, a lot closer to infrastructure


----------



## CarbonSteel (11 April 2013)

Who is responsible for the situation in which we find ourselves? Certainly not hanlong. Who captained this farce?


----------



## prawn_86 (11 April 2013)

CarbonSteel said:


> Who is responsible for the situation in which we find ourselves?




The owners of the company ie the shareholders?? There have been numerous chances to exit along the way for those that no longer wanted to own a company with so much uncertainty surrounding it


----------



## pavilion103 (11 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> The owners of the company ie the shareholders?? There have been numerous chances to exit along the way for those that no longer wanted to own a company with so much uncertainty surrounding it




+1

I told a mate to get out a while ago. He knew there was great uncertainty and decided to hold on.

Even from a technical perspective the chart didn't look too flash!


----------



## mr. jeff (12 April 2013)

notting said:


> Two glimmers of hope with this -
> If the Chinese want to make a lower bid for SDL in a short space of time they cannot do so as Hanlong it will have to be another Chinese company.
> One could hope that with the Princeling wars going on in China at the moment have taken out the Hanlong guys and some other China Princeling wants to take Hanlongs assets and hopefully SDL with it.
> Remembering also the Chinese will not allow it's own companies to bid against each other for international assets so Hanlong has to be out of the picture first.
> ...




Funny, and maybe not far off the mark! Considering the millions of tonnes they sell, where has the share price gone and where are the dividends to share the spoils?! 
Someone will come through and attempt to exploit SDL for more money, whether it is a farce or genuine.


----------



## springhill (12 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> The owners of the company ie the shareholders?? There have been numerous chances to exit along the way for those that no longer wanted to own a company with so much uncertainty surrounding it




+1

Well said. I know I mess around with some risky stuff but even I wouldn't touch this with a barge pole.
Advised my uncle to get out in the 50's. He held until the 30s 

The clear signs of the bid failure were obvious a long time ago.

My sincere sympathies to those who lost money believing the dream.

If there is anything to take from it, the best lessons are often hard earned.


----------



## notting (12 April 2013)

There will be a low ball bid from another China source or some kind of joint venture.
As stated they have bought a plot next door to this for 600mil. If you combine that with what they paid for SDL steak it's a sizable investment.
They need the same infrastructure for both.
Another thing they could do is buy it and attempt refloat.
If however the IO story is going to be soft for the next 30 years then there would seem little point in buying SDL.
The Chinese think long term!  
I find it hard to believe that IO will remain depressed for all that time and don't believe it is over priced at current levels due to the simple fact that it is not that cheap to mine and it has a real purpose unlike gold.
A walk away is typical befor they come back 6,12 18 months later.
Though they have not come back for Bannerman yet.


----------



## noirua (27 April 2013)

SDL have become increasingly tied in with Afferro Minerals AIM:AFF, IMIC  AIM:IMIC and West African AIM:WAFM.

IMIC have bid for Afferro and if successful tie in the formers infrastructure and expertise with Afferro's iron ore assets. They would also tie in with the railing arm of POSCO.
WAFM have iron ore both close to SDL's and AFF where a rail set-up would be built.

A future bid looks likely for SDL with better grade iron ore but prices are well down and they may only be worth 18p to 22p a share and maybe not all in cash.


----------



## CarbonSteel (30 April 2013)

Today's QAR looks a lot like an attempt to talk the SP up. Sadly no meat to put in the sandwich yet.


----------



## Jewels (7 August 2013)

Announcement out this morning, along with a new presentation.
I think I'll put this in the bottom draw until March next year.
All the best 
Jewels

ASX Announcement
7 August 2013
Sundance issues tender documents for Mbalam-Nabeba Project
Sundance Resources Ltd (ASX: SDL) advises that it has commenced issuing tender documents relating to
financing and construction of the infrastructure for its Mbalam-Nabeba Iron Ore Project (“the Project”).
Tender documents for the Project’s port and rail infrastructure are being provided to a number of
International Engineering, Procurement and Construction (“EPC”) contractors that have proven track
records in building successful projects of large scope and scale. Six of these groups are Chinese.
Sundance will also issue term sheets for Project equity and take-or-pay contracts over iron ore produced
at Mbalam-Nabeba. The Company envisages that the negotiations for the take-or-pay contracts and
Project equity agreements will be completed this calendar year.
Sundance Managing Director Giulio Casello said the tender process was a pivotal step in the
development of the Project.
“The interest shown in our Project from a wide range of potential investors, constructors and customers
has been outstanding,” Mr Casello said.
“This reflects both the high quality of the resource and the advanced nature of the Project, which is now
well and truly poised for development.
“We are aiming to ensure that the Project is in production in time to capitalise on the supply shortfall
which we believe is set to emerge in the global iron ore market around 2017-2018.”
Sundance has held discussions with all the parties that will receive the tender documents and the
Company is encouraged by the strong interest that has been expressed by parties in playing a role in
developing this world-class, high-grade iron ore project.
ENDS
Released by:
Giulio Casello
CEO and Managing Director
Sundance Resources Limited
Shareholder/Media Inquiries:
Jill Thomas
Investor Relations Manager
Sundance Resources
Telephone: +61 8 9220 2300
Email: info@sundanceresources.com.au
Paul Armstrong
Read Corporate
Telephone: +61 8 9388 1474
Email: paul@readcorporate.com.au


----------



## RP_Automotive (15 October 2013)

There has been some high volume and decent gains on this in the past few days of trading. If the aims of making an deal by the end of the year are to come to fruition, I'd expect some announcements to start flowing soon. Anyone experienced in this stock knows it generally leaks a little before an announcement, or is it just speculation, or is there some news article or market conditions that might be driving it that I have missed? Personally I just hope something solid comes through finally. Disclaimer: I hold a small amount.


----------



## The Muffin Man (16 October 2013)

RP_Automotive;

Sundance set for rebound

    BARRY FITZGERALD
    The Australian
*October 08, 2013 12:00AM*

SUCCESSFUL investment in the junior end of the resources market is achieved by having a laser-like focus on the three things that matter most - people, people and people. Know and trust the people involved, and much of the risk in what is a high-risk environment can be mitigated.

It was for that reason that the punters sat up and took notice of what Sundance Resources chairman George Jones had to say about the near-term future of the central African iron ore hopeful at the Resources Rising Stars conference at the Gold Coast last week.

Now, Jones will take no offence for it to be said that he has that well-worn look that comes from having knocked around the mining, banking and finance industries for more than three decades. Successes in coal and iron ore in other companies and a reputation for being a straight-shooter have bestowed statesman status on him in an industry in which there are precious few.

He has had to draw on all that in the past three years to steer Sundance through both tragedy and takeover drama, while continuing to advance the planned $US4.7 billion ($5bn) stage-one development of the Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project that straddles Cameroon and the Republic of Congo in central Africa.

Heartbreak struck for Sundance in in 2010. Eleven people were killed when a chartered plane crashed on its way to the Mbalam-Nabeba project. All six Sundance board members -- chairman Geoff Wedlock, chief executive Don Lewis, company secretary John Carr-Gregg and non-executive directors Ken Talbot, John Jones and Craig Oliver -- were among those killed, prompting Jones to eventually return as chairman, having stepped down from the position in 2009.

That was followed by the drawn-out takeover approach from China's Hanlong, which started off at 50c in October 2011. It was then increased to 57c a share before being pulled back to 45c. And in April this year it didn't proceed at all after Hanlong's billionaire controlling shareholder, Liu Han, was arrested in China on charges of harbouring his brother, a suspect in a 2009 triple murder. He is now one of China's "missing tycoons", as the Chinese media put it.

Given the plane crash tragedy and the Hanlong dramas, it will be no surprise to know that Sundance is now trading at the princely price of 7.1c a share, giving it a market value of $220 million. *But Jones for one does not think Sundance will be around these levels for much longer, telling the 500-odd punters at last week's conference that he thinks we are all going to see a rerating of the company's share price, starting from November.*

*It is about then that Sundance will be closing off the tenders it has out in China, Korea, Japan, Europe and elsewhere to clear the last remaining roadblock to getting the 35 million-tonnes-a-year Mbalam-Nabeba project into the starting stalls -- securing the required $US4.7bn in funding.*

It is a huge hurdle to overcome and the tenders are seeking solutions across both the project's infrastructure needs and the eventual ownership structure of the mine.

There is no doubting that Mbalam-Nabeba is a major A-grade opportunity, given its scale and the expectation that in stage one it will be the lowest-cost hematite iron ore producer in the world ($US21.20 a tonne). At current iron ore prices of more than $US130 a tonne, the project would pay back its capital in less than two years, if all the cashflow were devoted to that cause.

Being at the low end of the cost curve also means it would be able to withstand lower prices. A huge debate continues around the potential for a wall of new production capacity in the Pilbara and Brazil to take prices down sharply. Jones reckons that the chances of a substantial fall in iron ore prices is very remote.

"I think you are going to see continuing robust prices between $US115 and $US135 a tonne," Jones said.

In fact, he sees a supply shortfall emerging in 2016-17 because of the raft of project cancellations that followed last year's price dive to $US80 a tonne.

His expectation of an emerging supply shortfall dovetails with the timing of Mbalam-Nabeba's development. But multi-billion-dollar developments in Third World countries are not exactly flavour of the month.

*But Jones remains remarkably bullish. "If we pull this off -- and I can tell you that I have a high level of confidence in us doing that -- I think you are going to see a very serious rerating in the Sundance share price," he said.*

*More to the point, Jones said that as a result of its tender process, Sundance has had a "number of people very seriously engaging with us".*

*"There is some serious interest and I think you are going to see it unfold from November onwards," Jones said.*

Time will tell just what comes from the process, but at least it won't be a long wait.

- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...y-fnciil7d-1226734305047#sthash.i860ghbG.dpuf

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd say Jones' comments are stirring some interest. I was out of SDL for some time but have decided to take a position again on the back of those comments from Jones. The company's timeline was for mine JV partner deals to be finalised before the end of 2013, and Jones' comments fit in with that well.

Now, I know SDL's very long history of missing timelines and I know of Jones' history of his comments missing the mark as far as SDL goes, but I saw little downside risk from my re-entry point and good upside potential if a mine JV partner can be secured.


----------



## pavilion103 (16 October 2013)

Had no idea about the recent comments but I have bought some in the last day around 8 cents based on chart analysis. 

Interesting to see what happens from here.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 October 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Had no idea about the recent comments but I have bought some in the last day around 8 cents based on chart analysis.
> 
> Interesting to see what happens from here.




Good one.

I doubt you will regret it.

gg


----------



## pavilion103 (17 October 2013)

10.5 this morning. Looks like it's moving!


----------



## Lootius (17 October 2013)

It was sitting at 10.2 cents then someone called into a Sky Business show asking about the stock. They gave a no-buy due to its non-producing speculative nature and it proceeded to drop. You can see from the charting where that happened. This is a long term buy so it scared off the naÃ¯ve.

I hold SDL.


----------



## RP_Automotive (17 October 2013)

Lootius said:


> It was sitting at 10.2 cents then someone called into a Sky Business show asking about the stock. They gave a no-buy due to its non-producing speculative nature and it proceeded to drop. You can see from the charting where that happened. This is a long term buy so it scared off the naÃ¯ve.
> 
> I hold SDL.




Damn those mum and dad, blue chip investors. The slightest hint of risk and they all go running!! haha.

I thought it may have been the speeding ticket mixed with some big houses pushing it back down. Massive volume though, so we'll see how it goes over the next few months.


----------



## pavilion103 (21 October 2013)

Thought there would be a bit more activity in this thread!

Up to 12.5c today for the first time in a while. Happy with my 8.2c buy last week.

Very interested to see how this plays out in the coming weeks!


----------



## hangseng (21 October 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Thought there would be a bit more activity in this thread!
> 
> Up to 12.5c today for the first time in a while. Happy with my 8.2c buy last week.
> 
> Very interested to see how this plays out in the coming weeks!




Well done pavilion, I wish I to did the same last week but decided to jump in today with a small parcel at 0.12 regardless. With what seems to be coming based on company information regarding Mbalam development (finally) and the Chairman's recent comments regarding a re-rating (no surprise an ASX please explain came in last week) that large gap up to .21 may disappear very quickly, so happy with an entry today. 

My first buy was around Feb 2006 at ~6c from memory when Jones came on board and sold far too early, and what a roller coaster since then. A retrace to test for support again wouldn't surprise but let's see how this one goes.

Rising on volume and strong close at .13 so feeling quietly confident.


----------



## Country Lad (21 October 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Thought there would be a bit more activity in this thread!




Nah, happy just to watch it.  All the commentary would say is that it is going up.  It was a nice reasonably consistent rise. 



> Up to 12.5c today for the first time in a while. Happy with my 8.2c buy last week.




That's a lot better than my 9.7.



hangseng said:


> Rising on volume and strong close at .13 so feeling quietly confident.




Yes, the finishing flurry was interesting.  Nearly 24% of the day's trades occured in the last 10 minutes and the matchout.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## PinguPingu (21 October 2013)

Country Lad said:


> That's a lot better than my 9.7.





Still better than my 11.0c....bloody IG markets dodgy crap...


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## LRG (27 October 2013)

IMO a significant re-rate is not far off now.

After years of disappointment SDL is about to turn the corner.

Recent run up on huge volumes from 7s to 12s

Media releases about tender process coming to an end soon. GJ confident of a re-rate.


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 October 2013)

re SDL 

May I quote Jesse Livermore



> In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices breaks through the limit in either direction.




Those who jumped on when SDL broke above 0.08 took that advice. I am a tad wary of the disappointing volume on Friday with a close far away from the high of the day, at the low in fact, at the close of the prior day.

Perhaps a new trading range is developing.

Nonetheless an entry now should not be made "on anticipation", in my opinion.







gg


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## pavilion103 (27 October 2013)

Agree 100%
Got in at 8.2c which was the right time. 
Can see a trading range being established now


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## Country Lad (27 October 2013)

Sold mine Friday morning.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## tech/a (27 October 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Sold mine Friday morning.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Why?


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## Country Lad (27 October 2013)

A few reasons:- 

it was intended only as a short term trade, 
12.5 cents looks pretty good for a while, 
I was away from the computer during trading most of Friday
and the next 2 days
after which we head off to the Murgon Music Muster.  

Trading is a hobby and other priorities crop up now & then, fishing, climbing a small mountain or 2, camping out remotely, festivals, bush walking. bird watching.....so, most spekkies are not to be held on to every now & then.


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## tech/a (28 October 2013)

Ok
More personal than technical reasons.
Enjoy your trip!


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## pavilion103 (28 October 2013)

Contemplating adding a small position at 13c with a tight stop at 11c. 

Would only be a small portion of my already decent profits at risk. 

hmmmm


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 October 2013)

It would be interesting to see a Steidlemeyer on the last week or so's action.

gg


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## piggybank (29 October 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Contemplating adding a small position at 13c with a tight stop at 11c.
> 
> Would only be a small portion of my already decent profits at risk.
> 
> hmmmm




Hi Pavilion,

Did you go ahead with your contemplation?


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## pavilion103 (29 October 2013)

piggybank said:


> Hi Pavilion,  Did you go ahead with your contemplation?




It didn't hit 13c
I've got a buy-stop at 13c still so will take another position if it hits that.


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## Country Lad (1 November 2013)

tech/a said:


> Ok
> More personal than technical reasons.
> Enjoy your trip!




Not technical or personal really, otherwise I would have put a stop sell on it.  More a case of:



Country Lad said:


> 12.5 cents looks pretty good for a while, .
> .




because these types of spekkie stock go through the the usual "train leaving station" stage, everybody gets on board, then it slows down because everybody is on board, then people get bored because there is no more news, then it is sold to buy others which are in the "train leaving station" stage and so on.  

I just thought it was going into the bored stage, sold it and bought the next train and put a stop loss on that one to reduce the risk while I am not watching.

Internet here is at snail's pace and so far the "Music Muster" is a bit like karaoke at the local pub. 

Cheers
Country Lad


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## pavilion103 (1 November 2013)

It's an interesting one with ones like this. I guess it can be a bit hit and miss. 

Same happened with MNW when it went from 10c to 18c in a day and then stagnated for a week or two before hitting as high as 45c. 

I'm just going to wear it at the moment. Stop at break even 8.2c. We'll see how it plays out.


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## Country Lad (1 November 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm just going to wear it at the moment. Stop at break even 8.2c. We'll see how it plays out.




I don't think it is likely to fall, just trade in a range for a while.  In fact, I would expect it is likely to go higher eventually unless there is some bad news.  

I will put a stop on the next train I boarded (and send this) if the internet will behave.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## tech/a (1 November 2013)

Country Lad said:


> I don't think it is likely to fall, just trade in a range for a while.  In fact, I would expect it is likely to go higher eventually unless there is some bad news.
> 
> I will put a stop on the next train I boarded (and send this) if the internet will behave.
> 
> ...




The way to make money with these in my opinion is
(1) do what your doing with a hard stop at B/E
(2) get out as soon as a reversal after a larger move has occurred. 22/10 is glaring
A stop at the high of 21/10 is the obvious.

THEN a re entry strategy.
personally In and out for me.
I don't want to be sitting in a trade watching another fly off!


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## pavilion103 (1 November 2013)

tech/a said:


> The way to make money with these in my opinion is
> (1) do what your doing with a hard stop at B/E
> (2) get out as soon as a reversal after a larger move has occurred. 22/10 is glaring
> A stop at the high of 21/10 is the obvious.
> ...




I agree with this. 

There was an obvious reversal with this particular stock. 

Getting out and taking the profit on the table after a big shoot up move is a good idea. Looking for re-entry is also good. 

I agree with this technique. 

The reason I am trying something different in the sub10c thread is because I want test a strategy which requires very little effort and day to day management. This is not the ideal way I would trade these, but a methodology which doesn't require much work and holds a number of stocks in the hope that one will go to the moon.


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## tech/a (1 November 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> I agree with this.
> 
> There was an obvious reversal with this particular stock.
> 
> ...




PAV

There are good opportunities here.
That's why I introduced them to you.


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## pavilion103 (14 November 2013)

Hit 13c this morning. Pushing through a few previous highs of 12.5. A bit of volume too.

Let's see how this goes.


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## Jewels (25 November 2013)

Hi Sundancers,
Can anyone shed any light on why SDL are in court today, and what the implications are? 


Before The Hon. Justice Le Miere   Court 1, Floor 15, 111 St Georges Tce, Perth 10:30Absolute Analogue Inc v. Sundance Resources Ltd (CIV 1773/2007) Civil Trial


Thanks Jewels


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## RP_Automotive (26 November 2013)

Not sure if this helps? http://www1.lawcouncil.asn.au/FEDLI...ncvSundanceResourcesLtd[no2][2011]WASC243.pdf


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## RP_Automotive (27 November 2013)

The end of the year is fast approaching, and let be honest, it really finishes mid-December when everyone packs up for Christmas. I hate to say it, but it's looking like we're going to see another target missed. I hope I'm proven wrong in the next 3-4 weeks.


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## hangseng (27 November 2013)

RP_Automotive said:


> The end of the year is fast approaching, and let be honest, it really finishes mid-December when everyone packs up for Christmas. I hate to say it, but it's looking like we're going to see another target missed. I hope I'm proven wrong in the next 3-4 weeks.




You may very well be correct RP.

I entered the comp on a punt it will happen, but entered SDL again in October for a bit more than the early announcement. Nothing ever a certainty, but I believe this to be a lower risk entry now.

IMO this will be GJ's swansong, the commitment he gave post the directors plane crash were not hollow words.


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## RP_Automotive (29 November 2013)

The chairman's address which is out today basically says that they expect tenders to be submitted to SDL in the next few weeks, negotiations to start early next year, and agreements to be undertaken by mid next year at the latest.

Time to take a punt and hold on for another 6 months....but if they miss this deadline I'm all but out I think.


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## Lootius (13 January 2014)

Authorities finally caught up with Steven Xiao, former Hanlong Mining Executive.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ted-in-hong-kong/story-e6frg8zx-1226800639551


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## notting (23 May 2014)

All's well that ends well.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/death-sentence-for-hanlong-chief-liu-han/story-e6frg8zx-1226928643752?from=public_rss

He is not being punished for the way he did business.  All the Chinese do business like he did. He just pissed off the wrong people ie he lost some of their money and exposed some insider trading techniques they use in international markets.


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## skc (23 May 2014)

notting said:


> All's well that ends well.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/death-sentence-for-hanlong-chief-liu-han/story-e6frg8zx-1226928643752?from=public_rss
> 
> He is not being punished for the way he did business.  All the Chinese do business like he did. He just pissed off the wrong people ie he lost some of their money and exposed some insider trading techniques they use in international markets.




Surely the death penalty relates to his murder charges?! 



> It was found Liu ordered the execution of his business rivals, often in public places such as tea houses, to reinforce his power and help Hanlong maintain its dominance as a mining company.


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## notting (23 May 2014)

skc said:


> Surely the death penalty relates to his murder charges?!




Surely 

As sure as anyone who is anyone in China should be on death row.

I still can't get an angle on what is going on with AQA which is a far smaller resource with equal infrastructure issues.  They want a peace of Australia or they have upset the Africans.


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## notting (23 May 2014)

Clearing away the mist.



> Liu's most serious offense, however, could well be political: He was caught up on the wrong side of a titanic power play, multiple sources say, because of his business partnership with the son of former domestic security chief, Zhou Yongkang. In a campaign unprecedented in modern China, Xi is determined to bring down Zhou for making a behind-the-scenes grab for power, the sources say.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/23/us-china-corruption-special-report-idUSBREA4M00120140523


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## skc (23 May 2014)

notting said:


> http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/23/us-china-corruption-special-report-idUSBREA4M00120140523




Thanks for the link. Very intriguing story. 



notting said:


> He is not being punished for the way he did business.  All the Chinese do business like he did. He just pissed off the wrong people ie he lost some of their money and exposed some insider trading techniques they use in international markets.




This story involved political power at the highest level so the death penalty makes a lot more sense now. It is a lot more than just exposing some insider trading techniques... he may or may not have committed some of the alleged crimes (like murder etc), but he certainly he hanged with the wrong (i.e. losing) crowd.


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## Garpal Gumnut (30 May 2014)

Wal King was appointed Deputy-chairman today.

Price has gone gangbusters since. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 June 2014)

SDL is a much misunderstood stock, mainly due to a legion of tragics on another forum coughs- ahhoddhoojooajoo- hc who lost thier collective drawers buying in at 30c or more two or three years ago.

It has probaly more iron in it's African mines than anyone else worldwide. 

The chart has been re-energised by the appointment of Wallace King of Leighton Legend, as deputy chair, I would not be surprised to see him chair one day.

The chart is becoming. 







gg


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## Jewels (9 June 2014)

The reason Sundance Resources Market cap is plummeting is that investors were expecting a finance solution as apart of the EPC that was announced on 06/06/2014, as per the announcement to the ASX on the 7th of August 2013:
7 August 2013
Sundance issues tender documents for Mbalam-Nabeba Project
Sundance Resources Ltd (ASX: SDL) advises that it has commenced issuing tender documents relating to
*financing and construction* of the infrastructure for its Mbalam-Nabeba Iron Ore Project (“the Project”).
Tender documents for the Project’s port and rail infrastructure are being provided to a number of
International Engineering, Procurement and Construction (“EPC”) contractors that have proven track
records in building successful projects of large scope and scale. Six of these groups are Chinese.
Sundance will also issue term sheets for Project equity and take-or-pay contracts over iron ore produced
at Mbalam-Nabeba. *The Company envisages that the negotiations for the take-or-pay contracts and
Project equity agreements will be completed this calendar year.*

As per the announcement to the ASX on the 6th of June Sundance is now in the position of having to arrange finance for the construction of the port and rail.  This was not what I was expecting:
"Discussions are well advanced with a wide variety of potential funding
partners; Export Credit Agencies, Development Funds and Commercial
Banks have already expressed interest in providing debt funding.
- Sundance aims to achieve Financial Close by mid-2015."

As per the cash flow report for the 31st of March 2014, Sundance' cash burn was $7,981,000 for the quarter of which $3,500,000 was accounted for by administration.  With cash at the end of the quarter 0f just $26,289,000, it is almost inevitable that the board is going to have to raise further capitol, almost certainly leading to further dilution for existing shareholders.

All in all I see very little in the future to stimulate Sundance's market cap and almost certainly an event likely to put further downward pressure on the share price, exacerbated by a board who is beginning to be known for over promising and under delivering.  President Biya isn't getting any younger, who knows if he will still be around in 12 months, I'm sorry to say but I can only see Sundance's share price falling until project finance is confirmed.  In my opinion, Without the finance the EPC isn't worth the paper it's written on.
Good luck to all long term holders, mine are going into the bottom draw.


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## LRG (9 October 2014)

Doesn't this just keep going from one disaster to another, looks to be completely doomed to fail now. Al time lows of sub 5 cents last couple of days. People including me have dropped a fair bit of coin on this dud!


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## Lootius (10 February 2015)

RIP Hanlong Mining.
Chinese mining tycoon executed for murder.

A Chinese mining billionaire said to have links with disgraced former security tsar Zhou Yongkang and who once launched a bid for Australia's Sundance Resources has been executed for multiple murder.

Liu Han, his younger brother Liu Wei and three accomplices were condemned to death in May for "organising and leading a mafia-style group", murder and other crimes.

Liu Han led private company Hanlong, which is based in the southwestern province of Sichuan and launched a takeover bid of more than $US1 billion ($A1.29 billion) for Sundance, a listed Australian iron ore firm, in 2011.

But the deal collapsed in 2013 after the Chinese firm failed to follow through. Chinese media reports said at the time that Liu Han had been detained.

Source: Yahoo7 - 9th Feb, 2015


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## greggles (22 January 2018)

Has Sundance Resources been thrown a lifeline?



> MOU signed between Sundance, Cam Iron and Tidfore
> 
> Sundance is pleased to announce that it has signed a binding Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) with Tidfore Heavy Equipment Group Co. Ltd (“Tidfore”) and Cam Iron S.A. (“Cam Iron” a subsidiary of Sundance which has a mining permit application over the previous EP92 in Cameroon (“Parties”)). The purpose of the MOU is to provide a framework for cooperation between the Parties and their joint venture partners in order to establish the required consortium of expertise to fund or assist in sourcing the funding to construct the infrastructure and to bring the Project into operation.
> 
> ...




Any SDL holders or followers have a view on this development? Share price is up 40% to $0.007 this morning.


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## sptrawler (22 December 2020)

Sundance resources to delist, I wonder if there has been any pressure applied to the African governments regarding permits?
Could it be a heads up, for other companies with exposure to Africa?




__





						Sundance Resources (ASX:SDL) set to delist amid African disputes
					

Sundance Resources (ASX:SDL) will delist from the ASX on December 21 amid ongoing disputes with the governments of Cameroon and Congo.




					themarketherald.com.au
				



From the article:


Sundance Resources (SDL) will delist from the ASX on December 21 amid ongoing disputes with the governments of Cameroon and Congo
Permitting issues for the company's Mbalam-Nabeba Iron Ore Project, spanning the border of Cameroon and Congo, will require resolution
If suitable terms can't be met with the governments in question, the cases will go to arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce
The disputes mean the company can't satisfy ASX listing rules and will have to be delisted
Plans to convert $132 million in debt notes have also been stymied, unless amendments are made to the agreement with noteholders
If the debt can't be serviced, Sundance will have to go into administration
Sundance Resources has been suspended since September 10, with shares frozen at 0.55 cents.
*Permit issues*
The company is involved in permitting disputes for the Mbalam-Nabeba Iron Ore Project, spanning the border of Cameroon and Congo.

The company became aware on December 7 that the Congo Government had issued a decree which appears to revoke Sundance's mining permit.

The permit is held by SDL subsidiary, Congo Iron. The withdrawal decree has not yet been published in the Official Journal of Congo or formally provided to Congo Iron, but the document appears to bear the signatures of the President of Congo, the Minister of Mines and Geology, the Minister of Tourism and Environment, and the Minister of Finance and Budget.

Sundance believes the revocation of the permit constitutes a serious breach of existing agreements.

In a similar-but-different dispute with the government of Cameroon, Sundance subsidiary Cam Iron has also had permitting issues.

Cam Iron applied for an exploitation permit on October 9, 2009. The relevant minister did not reject or otherwise process Cam Iron's exploitation permit application within the 90-day time limit, meaning it had been deemed as granted.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 December 2020)

Stolen by a Chinese company. Kleptomania and contempt


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## sptrawler (22 December 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Stolen by a Chinese company. Kleptomania and contempt



The belt and road initiative, if you don't do as we say you either get a belt, or hit the road.  
I hope Mr Andrews is taking note, but somehow I doubt it.


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