# Short signals---something different



## tech/a (21 August 2008)

Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!

Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.

BHP
NWS
WPL.

Stops would for me be the most recent highs.(From a day to a week on others.)

BHP trade only shown.
For educational purposes only not a recommendation of any sort.


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## nomore4s (21 August 2008)

*Re: Short signals---something different.*



tech/a said:


> Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!
> 
> Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.
> 
> ...




WPL looks interesting, although the strong support at $50 is a bit of a worry.


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## Aussiest (21 August 2008)

WPL is interesting. It has just broken through $56.00 resistance, so it will be interesting to see if it holds up. I have a feeling it may reach $57, but don't know if it will be strong enough to breach this level. It may be a good short at $56.50-$57, but i don't know.

Right now i am 65% bullish on WPL and 35% bearish. I wouldn't do anything till i was sure though.

The price of oil is on the move though, so we'll see what happens.


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## nomore4s (21 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> WPL is interesting. It has just broken through $56.00 resistance, so it will be interesting to see if it holds up. I have a feeling it may reach $57, but don't know if it will be strong enough to breach this level. It may be a good short at $56.50-$57, but i don't know.
> 
> Right now i am 65% bullish on WPL and 35% bearish. I wouldn't do anything till i was sure though.
> 
> The price of oil is on the move though, so we'll see what happens.




While it may have broken through $56.00 look at the close of todays bar as well as the 2 bars before it, looks like rejection to me. To be confirmed either way of course.


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## Whiskers (21 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!
> 
> Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.
> 
> ...




For educational purposes, tech/a, I think BHP has finished wave 5 down and not quite finished minute wave iii up, yet. 

Don't trust computer generated buy and sell signals. 

I'd stay long until probably $41.98... cos I reckon gold has bottomed and into a primary wave 3 up with some of the commodities to follow soon, as well as the AUD continuing to fall.


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## Aussiest (21 August 2008)

In relation to WPL: Hmm, i know it's contenious. I thought it was going to be bearish on the 13th of August, but it shot up to $54.00 on no significant news on the 14th. Go figure. 

Since then, it has not been sure of whether to be bullish or bearish, IMO. But, i get the feeling it is slightly bullish. If the price of oil keep rising, it will rise a little, but, i don't know if i can see it breaching $57.00 at this stage, even on marginal rises in oil. I am slightly bullish on WPL, but not enough to bet on it breaching $57.00. But, then again, i don't know if i am bearish enough to bet it will fall to $50, or even $49.00 <.

I will have to wait until after FY results to bet either way on this stock. The results are what is skewing it now. The macro-economic / fundamental environment is not stable enough to make a call right now. Just my opinion, mind you.


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## nomore4s (22 August 2008)

Just had a close look at BHP, does look promising imo.

Right on a resistance zone atm and with the inability to push through it and the very weak close today probably worth considering.

Nice low risk entry too.

Discussion only.


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## Whiskers (22 August 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Just had a close look at BHP, does look promising imo.
> 
> Right on a resistance zone atm and with the inability to push through it and the very weak close today probably worth considering.
> 
> ...




I wonder if 'Advanced Get' see's a $3 or $4  rise in oil and say 20 to $30 in the POG coming.

That'll probably be just the tonic to push it through tomorrow.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (22 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> WPL is interesting. It has just broken through $56.00 resistance, so it will be interesting to see if it holds up. I have a feeling it may reach $57, but don't know if it will be strong enough to breach this level. It may be a good short at $56.50-$57, but i don't know.
> 
> *Right now i am 65% bullish on WPL and 35% bearish. I wouldn't do anything till i was sure though.
> *
> The price of oil is on the move though, so we'll see what happens.




Ausiest how did you come to be 35% and 65% bearish bullish? Why not 34% and 66%? Or say 40% 60%? And how will you be sure? 

I am really curious as to how it can be measured. I am always looking for new stuff to help me with. 

Tech,

Are you taking any trades with these signals? Also, how has your experience of using Aget been? Do you like it and is it worth the expense considering the other software you do use? What is Tradeguider indicating with these short signals by the way?


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## Aussiest (22 August 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Ausiest how did you come to be 35% and 65% bearish bullish? Why not 34% and 66%? Or say 40% 60%? And how will you be sure?




Oh, pftt. Lol. I can't be sure. How can anybody be sure? Even you technical analysts?!

Well, look at the price of oil now. It says it all. Use whatever stats or proportions you like to represent a 'hunch'. Actually, it's not a hunch. The evidence is right in front of us. But, i don't think it's going to be enduring.

I am so sick of the puppeteers pulling our strings. The price of oil goes up, financials go down. Who profits? I'm at the stage where i don't care any more. It's called capitulation of the senses utthedoor:.


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## tech/a (22 August 2008)

Firstly I take signals as *ALERTS*.

Then let the brain do the appropriate analysis.
ie risk and any other supporting analysis.
Trades can take a few days to be really clear or can be immediate.

I get them wrong just like everyone else.
BHP will be of interest as its looking like an opportunity soon.
Sure its possible this wave 4 will extend before capitulation.
When I take a trade I'll be looking for low risk and good potential R/R.

The Weekly chart could be seen as showing a completion of this 3 waves down making this wave A and the current up move on the weekly could form a wave B followed by more weakness into the longerterm pattern of wave C Chart below.

Snake 
Tradeguider isnt indicating anything with any of these--yet.

Good to see some discussion.
Yes I do take some of the trades but not all.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> Oh, pftt. Lol. I can't be sure. How can anybody be sure? Even you technical analysts?!
> 
> Well, look at the price of oil now. It says it all. Use whatever stats or proportions you like to represent a 'hunch'. Actually, it's not a hunch. The evidence is right in front of us. But, i don't think it's going to be enduring.
> 
> I am so sick of the puppeteers pulling our strings. The price of oil goes up, financials go down. Who profits? I'm at the stage where i don't care any more. It's called capitulation of the senses utthedoor:.




Thanks.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> Firstly I take signals as *ALERTS*.
> 
> Then let the brain do the appropriate analysis.
> ie risk and any other supporting analysis.
> ...




Tech,

What do you use that stochastic on the chart for with EW?


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## tech/a (23 August 2008)

Yes.

I'll post up a setup from E/W as a demo if you like.


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## tech/a (23 August 2008)

Snake.

Ive used BHP.
My overall analysis of the market is at this point bearish.
As such I'm looking for a direction after this period of whipsawing finishes.
The market "looks" as if it has no idea wether it wants to continue down or resume up.

This VSA chart shows this whipsawing in the XJO the blue trend indicators are all over the place.

Note the really high volumes in the light pink area preceed good moves.
Nothing for us YET on any capitulation of this moves so I'm still bearish over all.




BHP isnt displaying the higher lows and highs assoviated with a change in trend.
More so a corrective move into this wave 4. Its been alerted by AGET that this is what it thinks this move is. At this point I have no reason to doubt this.
So I'm looking for a place to take this short position.
Stochastic is close as are points given to me by other analysis.




Finally BHP's VSA chart.
Yesterdays very tight range reasonable volume bar indicates selling.
Id expect to see higher volume on rises from here--possibly with weakness shown in the bar.
IE closing off its highs.




Will keep this going if interested.
Will be proven right or wrong eventually.


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## Boggo (23 August 2008)

Here is how MTPredictor sees BHP.
The "decision points" are almost the same process as the "MOB" in Aget, based on the last pivot.

(click to enlarge)


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## Boggo (23 August 2008)

And this would be how a trade may eventuate if it rises into the DP and does a U turn (we all know how often they go according to plan  )
A close above $41.80 though and all bets are off.

(click to enlarge)


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## Boggo (23 August 2008)

I didn't take this trade but I know how my procedure would have gone :shake:

Out of interest, how would others have handled this trade, the assumption is that you would have entered as shown with the eventual target being the top of the DP box.

Would you have been there all the way to the DP or would you be out and if so, where/why ?

(click to enlarge)


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## tech/a (23 August 2008)

Boggo.

If it was me Id have been out earlier the way Ive been trading lately!

My stop would have been to tight.

But take a look at the *short setup* on Fridays bar!!!!!
Massive volume
Squat bar.
Divergence in the stochastic
Still in a corrective phase!
A lower bar on Monday will see an alert appear.


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## Boggo (23 August 2008)

I didn't notice that tech/a, but now that you mention it...

It is an erratic chart but the overall trend is still in place. MTPredictor adopts an isolation approach and works backwards from a pivot and then projects a potential (W4 in this case) point forward on the current leg.

I could do the same from about 3 points on this chart with different outcomes.

Could you elaborate on the implications of the high volume and the open and close on the last bar being the same.

I will track down the reason for that vol increase later.

(click to enlarge)


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## It's Snake Pliskin (24 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> Snake.
> 
> Ive used BHP.
> My overall analysis of the market is at this point bearish.
> ...




Thanks for the effort Tech.

It is interesting to see two different software packages in the analysis not to mention boggo's Mt predictor.


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## tech/a (25 August 2008)

NWS still developing
WPL is in my book--
BHP is getting more interesting by the day.


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## Aussiest (25 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> WPL is in my book--




WPL is in my book too! I just need this damned dividend period to end


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## Boggo (28 August 2008)

Can BBG keep this up all the way to the dividend in three weeks ?

(click to expand)


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## MRC & Co (28 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> WPL is in my book too! I just need this damned dividend period to end




You may also want this hurricane to end!


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## nomore4s (28 August 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> You may also want this hurricane to end!




lol, I actually went long on WPL yesterday based on the gap fill bar(Bar from 26.08.08 - entry on a break through the top and stop at the bottom) and also daytraded a parcel today which I closed out a bit early but still made a good profit on, so I'm pretty happy atm.

Will be trying to hold the EOD parcel as long as possible now with a trailing stop.


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## Aussiest (28 August 2008)

Well done nomore! 

I almost went long on it at close, and i think it will gap up tomorrow, or at least have another reasonable day. I'm not sure how much steam is left in it, only time will tell.

I'm just a bit risk aversive at the moment due to the MQG debarcle... Poor nerves need some time to recover . But, i will be jumping into some positions soon.


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## Aussiest (28 August 2008)

nomore4s said:


> lol, I actually went long on WPL yesterday based on the gap fill bar(Bar from 26.08.08 - entry on a break through the top and stop at the bottom) and also daytraded a parcel today which I closed out a bit early but still made a good profit on, so I'm pretty happy atm.
> 
> Will be trying to hold the EOD parcel as long as possible now with a trailing stop.




Actually, nomore4s, if you don't mind me asking:

How do you handle managing several positions at once? For example, this morning i had to manage WES, and make a decision whether to liquidate or not, and another position. Therefore, missing out on possible day trades.


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## nomore4s (28 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> Actually, nomore4s, if you don't mind me asking:
> 
> How do you handle managing several positions at once? For example, this morning i had to manage WES, and make a decision whether to liquidate or not, and another position. Therefore, missing out on possible day trades.




I only have one daytrade open at a time, as I tend to trade them on either 1min or at the most 5min charts, so have to keep a close eye on them until they are a long way into profit, then just a trailing stop.

I don't daytrade very often as I'm normally busy at work but had a spare few hours today. Most of my trading is done EOD so I only review those stocks after hours as they'll automatically be closed if my stop is hit - stops are reviewed every night. I have about 6 open trades atm.


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## Aussiest (28 August 2008)

Thanks nomore.

Would you keep more than one position open daytrading if you didn't have a full-time job? I do, but it is stressful watching them intensly. I'll have to find a strategy for closing postions early in the morning so i don't miss opportunities 

Thanks again


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## nomore4s (28 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> Thanks nomore.
> 
> Would you keep more than one position open daytrading if you didn't have a full-time job? I do, but it is stressful watching them intensly. I'll have to find a strategy for closing postions early in the morning so i don't miss opportunities
> 
> Thanks again




I would only open a second position once the first was into profit and didn't require close attention


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## Aussiest (28 August 2008)

Actually, in relation to the original topic. I'm actually thinking it might not be a good idea to go short on too many stocks right now (except financials), as many of them seem bullish. Don't know how long it will last, but CSL and WPL spring to mind. Hell, even BHP is making a comeback.

So, i think i am going to hold off on my short selling strategy, but CSL at around $41.00 will look attractive. It's approaching a record high. But, hey, you know... i am chicken **** at the moment, so i will probably hold off.


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## Whiskers (28 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!
> 
> Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.
> 
> ...






Whiskers said:


> For educational purposes, tech/a, I think BHP has finished wave 5 down and not quite finished minute wave iii up, yet.
> 
> Don't trust computer generated buy and sell signals.
> 
> I'd stay long until probably $41.98... cos I reckon gold has bottomed and into a primary wave 3 up with some of the commodities to follow soon, as well as the AUD continuing to fall.




I'd go short BHP now since reaching my target with a little gap up today... but not very far.

What does the software say at the momemt tech/a... is it still indicating a wave 4?

From my daily and weekly charts it still looks like the bottom is in and on the way back up again. 

Since I'm new to EW I'm curious whether any of the software available tends to get the bigger trends as well more or less reliably.


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## MRC & Co (28 August 2008)

nomore4s said:


> lol, I actually went long on WPL yesterday based on the gap fill bar(Bar from 26.08.08 - entry on a break through the top and stop at the bottom).
> 
> Will be trying to hold the EOD parcel as long as possible now with a trailing stop.




Yeh, I nearly went long WPL yesterday also..............

Good luck with the trade!


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## tech/a (28 August 2008)

Whiskers said:


> I'd go short BHP now since reaching my target with a little gap up today... but not very far.
> 
> What does the software say at the momemt tech/a... is it still indicating a wave 4?
> 
> ...




All are still showing wave 4.


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## tech/a (1 September 2008)

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c


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## Buster (1 September 2008)

Hey Tech/a



tech/a said:


> BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
> Stops at current highs. +10c




Not sophisticated enough to get into the shorts yet, but I run these types of threads as I tend to learn some great stuff from them.. particularly the differing mentalities and opinions of those with earlier experiences.

I don't know if I'd short purely as I think that the imminent IR cut may buoy the market for a little while (if it occurs, although it seems to be a given).  The fact that you have indicates (to me anyway) that you think the IR cut is already well and truly factored in or you have a little longer time line than I expected..

Would this be close?? Or are you purely trading the EW signals?? Perhaps there is something else to consider that I'm missing??

Cheers,

Buster


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## Whiskers (1 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
> Stops at current highs. +10c




Watching with interest tech/a. 

I'm gettin pretty starrie eyed from too many late nights working back counts on my stocks. So I'm startin to get a bit interested if software can make the job easier.

Just as a matter of interest, if my (manual) count is correct it will turnaround about 39/40.


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## tech/a (1 September 2008)

Its pretty simple.
I'm trading technical setups.
I do the R/R.
I'll either profit or be stopped out.

There are many fundamental factors at work.
reflected in price.

Theres a hurrican on the horizon and its
long term implications will only add fuel to
an already smoldering fire.


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## Aussiest (1 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
> Stops at current highs. +10c




I nearly went short on WPL on a whim on Friday at close (due to rapid increase of price in short time), then analyzed last night and noticed an exhaustion gap. 

Then, nearly went long on it today at close.

Should be interesting to see how it goes. Either way, good luck tech/a!


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## Whiskers (1 September 2008)

Aussiest said:


> I nearly went short on WPL on a whim on Friday at close (due to rapid increase of price in short time), then analyzed last night and noticed an exhaustion gap.
> 
> Then, nearly went long on it today at close.
> 
> Should be interesting to see how it goes. Either way, good luck tech/a!




Short man... go short, to about 43... or at least 52/3 initially.


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## nomore4s (1 September 2008)

Whiskers said:


> Short man... go short, to about 43... or at least 52/3 initially.




43 is a fair whack off the current price


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## Whiskers (1 September 2008)

nomore4s said:


> 43 is a fair whack off the current price




Sure is nomore4s.

For me it's based on the direction of oil, 100 in near term then 80 maybe less before it bottoms.

Without giving away what my indicators are, you can see on the monthly chart that the candles are high in the Bollinger band and the blue line is highest but starting to turn down. 

The 43 is the length of the A leg reflected down from the recent high, probably B.

I reckon it's half way through a big corrective leg. What's the software say?


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## Aussiest (1 September 2008)

Whiskers said:


> Short man... go short, to about 43... or at least 52/3 initially.




Wow, you could be right. At first i thought that hurricane Gustov may influence the POO, although i couldn't see this happening for too long. Just checked in on POO, and it's down, which is good... 

I'll keep my eye on it.


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## Aussiest (2 September 2008)

Just checked POO Whiskers, and it looks like your short is shaping up nicely!

Well done.

I'm not sure whether i am going to follow suit, had some bad experiences with shorts lately, a little jaded


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## Aussiest (2 September 2008)

Well done on the shorts guys :jump:.

(Gosh just noticed POO).

This is what i came up with Friday night, but didn't take them.






I was right about WPL, but just couldn't pull the trigger. I am still paper-trading shorts ATM.

One question: how do you get the guts / tenacity to hang on and not sell as soon as you see a small profit?


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## BentRod (3 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
> Stops at current highs. +10c




Nice Tech


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## Trembling Hand (3 September 2008)

Aussiest your high volume is bogus. It is not what you are trading it as.


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## MichaelD (3 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
> Stops at current highs. +10c




Interesting that both of these were taken on the ex-dividend date.


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## tech/a (3 September 2008)

MichaelD said:


> Interesting that both of these were taken on the ex-dividend date.




Really?

Well there you go---should that have influenced me?


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## Boggo (3 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> Really?
> 
> Well there you go---should that have influenced me?





Giday tech/a

This is an extract (below) from my CFD broker, consequently its an area I need to watch when shorting.

eg. I have BBG in my sights at the moment but I need to be aware that it is going ex on the 22nd 

Do you have a target for BHP tech, I am looking at below $36.


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## tech/a (3 September 2008)

Boggo said:


> Giday tech/a
> 
> This is an extract (below) from my CFD broker, consequently its an area I need to watch when shorting.
> 
> ...




No I understand that---I thought Michael meant something other than the liability


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 September 2008)

If you are shorting and paying the dividends it sort of defeats the purpose of shorting doesn't it? Perhaps it could be called the dividend risk.


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## Boggo (3 September 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> If you are shorting and paying the dividends it sort of defeats the purpose of shorting doesn't it? Perhaps it could be called the dividend risk.





That is why you make sure you are not holding it short when it goes ex.
Having said that though, getting in after it has gone ex often means that it has dropped by the dividend amount anyway when you buy it so in reality it may be no different than holding it.

BBG and AMP are upcoming examples.
BBG is going to pay 28.5c dividend, fully franked (30% taxed).
(28.5 + 8.55) = approx 37c less that each share in BBG will be worth when it goes ex.
There is a very good chance that the opening price will be 37 cents lower on the day it goes ex.

So selling short it on the day it goes ex can mean the same effective entry cost as selling short on the day prior to ex.

End result is where do you expect it to go after you get on board.


My and not necessarily correct


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## MichaelD (3 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> ---should that have influenced me?




Maybe. Maybe not. It's not for me to say - they're your trades, not mine. I was merely pointing out a timing curiousity.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 September 2008)

Boggo said:


> That is why you make sure you are not holding it short when it goes ex.
> Having said that though, getting in after it has gone ex often means that it has dropped by the dividend amount anyway when you buy it so in reality it may be no different than holding it.
> 
> So selling short it on the day it goes ex can mean the same effective entry cost as selling short on the day prior to ex.
> ...




Perhaps we can encompass that into the dividend risk.


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## Buster (3 September 2008)

Snake,



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Perhaps we can encompass that into the dividend risk.




Ha ha.. I'm not sure they're hearing you mate..

Still, if they are still in the trade it's looking pretty sweet today, a further dollar drop, along with the half dollar drop yesterday (after divy subtraction).. commodities taking a bit of stick globally so possible for another couple of days in before a bounce/rally.. I'd certainly be quite happy in thier trades at the moment..

Regards,

Buster.   

P.S. TechA, should be more of this sort of stuff, thanks for sharing.. I'm getting some good info here, and I'm sure I'm not alone.


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## Porper (3 September 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> If you are shorting and paying the dividends it sort of defeats the purpose of shorting doesn't it? Perhaps it could be called the dividend risk.




I don't see that it makes any difference whether you hold over the dividend date .You gain one way and lose the other.

I don't know but I suspect it was pure coincidence tech /a entered over the dividend date,and in the big picture makes no difference to portfolio performance.

It certainly wouldn't stop me entering  if your system produced a trade.


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## tech/a (3 September 2008)

Coincidence yes.
I certainly didnt wait for them to go ex div.
A signal is a signal particularly when you wait for the trade to come to you as I did in this case.
Monitoring daily but will post end of trade target analysis when I get a chance.
Following Rosella's div thread whilst he has an edge I dont think its a reason NOT to take a short trade.


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## tech/a (3 September 2008)

Bothe eventual targets shown on charts.
Will be looking for confirming indicators such as Volume and Price.
Wont be fussed if I dont get all of the move.
Current covers are at $28 and $51.50


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## Whiskers (3 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> Bothe eventual targets shown on charts.
> Will be looking for confirming indicators such as Volume and Price.
> Wont be fussed if I dont get all of the move.
> Current covers are at $28 and $51.50




Be interesting to see how this pans out tech/a.

I certainly agree with WPL, but I have the main BHP trend going the other direction, because of it's less reliance on oil and better iron ore prices.

Keep us posted what your software says... ie, if it changes it's mind.


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## Boggo (3 September 2008)

I am not on WPL but re the dividend (risk ) discussion, going short on WPL the day before it went ex div would have paid off nicely.

tech/a, my initial target on BHP is $35.11, there are three potential areas using MTPredictor to project target areas.

(click to enlarge)


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## tech/a (4 September 2008)

Boggo.

Yes agree this is GET's TJ's MOB which is very similar.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (4 September 2008)

Buster said:


> Snake,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Buster,

Yes it is coincidental that it all happens at the same time isn't it? Some put this down to luck and others skill. But I am sure you agree that assessing one's risk is important.

I agree this discussion started by Tech/A is good to follow. I hope their trades go well.

Regards
Snake


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## It's Snake Pliskin (4 September 2008)

Porper said:


> I don't see that it makes any difference whether you hold over the dividend date .You gain one way and lose the other.
> 
> I don't know but I suspect it was pure coincidence tech /a entered over the dividend date,and in the big picture makes no difference to portfolio performance.
> 
> It certainly wouldn't stop me entering  if your system produced a trade.




Porper it makes a big difference in that you owe the dividend regardless if entering before div.

A: You have a loss and owe the dividend.
B: You have a win and owe the dividend.
C: You sell short after the dividend and risk a big gap down diluting your potential gain when covering the short later.
D: You sell short after the dividend and do not have a gap down and get a good entry. 

Is it worth the risk if A and B are the case? Dilution of potential and magnification of RISK.

You might notice I am talking about A and B.


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## IFocus (4 September 2008)

I haven't tested but often see weakness follow though after the div payment so shorting seems like a good idea if the signal is there.

Over all liked the trade idea Tech.


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## Boggo (10 September 2008)

I had my profit stop on BHP set at $34.00 (top of the typical W.5 projection), just got home and I am out.

I am very happy with a 9:1R/R. 
Is it the bottom though for BHP ?? 

(click to enlarge)


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## Porper (10 September 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Porper it makes a big difference in that you owe the dividend regardless if entering before div.
> 
> A: You have a loss and owe the dividend..



That is just normal price action, dividend all things being equal is adjusted in the price.



> B: You have a win and owe the dividend..



Again, dividend reflected in price.



> C: You sell short after the dividend and risk a big gap down diluting your potential gain when covering the short later..



You risk a big gap down anyway, no difference.



> D: You sell short after the dividend and do not have a gap down and get a good entry...



If price doesn't go down after the dividend then market price action has caused this through strength, no other reason.

The only real difference that I see is that you may be triggered into a trade when it goes X dividend.

In the big picture it would make little difference.You can avoid this easily enough just by looking on ASX website to see when your stock goes X div.


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## tech/a (10 September 2008)

Boggo

It could be the bottom in this move.
I have the next target if it moves lower at $32.

Certaintly a good trade.Well done.


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## Boggo (10 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> Boggo
> 
> It could be the bottom in this move.
> I have the next target if it moves lower at $32.
> ...





Ta tech/a, I had been watching BHP since 31 July when it came up in a scan. I thought I had missed it after 1st Aug but it gave me a second chance.
Your post on 21st Aug confirmed what I was seeing was the same.
It worked better (and quicker) than expected, I thought I would have gone out via the trailing stop.


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## tech/a (15 September 2008)

NWS triggered on open this morning. (short)


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## Boggo (15 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> NWS triggered on open this morning. (short)




Also AMP, ex div today too.


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## tech/a (16 September 2008)

Closed BHP short just after open---$35.46.


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## BentRod (16 September 2008)

Nice trade Tech.

Well done.


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## tech/a (16 September 2008)

And just closed WPL at $50


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## Boggo (16 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> And just closed WPL at $50




Nice work tech/a

Boggo


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## Boggo (16 September 2008)

Took profits on AMP at $6.53, XFJ index has regained 100 points.

Financial sector recovery until the next yank debacle ?

Boggo


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## nomore4s (16 September 2008)

Boggo said:


> Took profits on AMP at $6.53, XFJ index has regained 100 points.
> 
> Financial sector recovery until the next yank debacle ?
> 
> Boggo




Might depend on what happens tonight with the DOW.

But I'm looking for a bit of a recovery, went long on WBC & CBA today based on the strength today, WBC especially showed a solid trend all day on the intra day charts. Nice tight stops and already in profit so will see what happens tomorrow, could get burnt on a gap down yet.

Well done on the BHP & WPL trades Tech.


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## nomore4s (17 September 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Might depend on what happens tonight with the DOW.
> 
> But I'm looking for a bit of a recovery, went long on WBC & CBA today based on the strength today, WBC especially showed a solid trend all day on the intra day charts. Nice tight stops and already in profit so will see what happens tomorrow, could get burnt on a gap down yet.
> 
> Well done on the BHP & WPL trades Tech.




WBC closed out at break even & CBA for a 1r profit, both done this morning.

Should have stopped and reversed both trades, lol, the benefit of hindsight


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## Boggo (17 September 2008)

nomore4s said:


> WBC closed out at break even & CBA for a 1r profit, both done this morning.
> 
> Should have stopped and reversed both trades, lol, the benefit of hindsight




WBCPA went ex div today. Its a WBC preference share and shouldn't impact on WBC though.

The 5 minute chart of the XFJ (S&P ASX 200 Financials) about sums up the financial sector today.


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## tech/a (18 September 2008)

nomore4s said:


> WBC closed out at break even & CBA for a 1r profit, both done this morning.
> 
> *Should have stopped and reversed both trades,* lol, the benefit of hindsight




Maybe not?


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## nomore4s (18 September 2008)

tech/a said:


> Maybe not?




Tech I was long, it was a very short term trade, trying to trade that small bounce, if I had been quicker to close out the trades yesterday I would have done ok.

That stop and reverse would have looked good today, lol.


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## cordelia (18 September 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Tech I was long, it was a very short term trade, trying to trade that small bounce, if I had been quicker to close out the trades yesterday I would have done ok.
> 
> That stop and reverse would have looked good today, lol.





I am really inexperienced in short selling but I took a look at the charts of CBA. I would have gone short around $43 based on the closes off the high and the stochastic....I would be looking to take a long position now because of the close. This combined with the gap down on high volume suggests buying and the stochastic is moving into the oversold region....

Is this a fair assesment...

cheers


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## Whiskers (9 October 2008)

nomore4s said:


> 43 is a fair whack off the current price




There she goes (WPL).


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## johnnyg (17 November 2008)

Well with the shorting ban being lifted on Wednesday (non financial's only) might be a good time to bump the thread back up.


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## johnnyg (18 November 2008)

Well heres a possible short in the making.

WPL looks to of bounced of long term support ~ $35 4 times within the last 5 weeks or so. I think youd have to take in consideration the way oil is heading so while there may be a short term bounce id trade the trend which is down. 

Comments?


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## brty (19 November 2008)

Hi,

Johnnyg



> Well heres a possible short in the making.




Umm, let's see. It has gone down for 10days. It has reached a point where it bounced before on higher volume. (a couple of times) It is losing angle of momentum down.

This is an area that I could go long, with a close stoploss (always).

brty


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## johnnyg (19 November 2008)

brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> Johnnyg
> 
> ...




Would of been a nice intra-day trade. Down 7% at one stage, with a 10% margin would of had a return of 70%. Dam having a day job lol.


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## johnnyg (20 November 2008)

Another one breaking medium term support. Picked this one up a little while ago from the Head and Shoulders thread. Might be one to keep an eye on.


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## Whiskers (20 November 2008)

brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> Johnnyg
> 
> ...




...except that last little peak has a little 'Evening Star' on top of it... signing, de udder way.


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