# RHC - Ramsay Health Care



## eMark (14 August 2006)

Hello

I've noticed (when searching) that Ramsay Health Care hasn't had much discussion of late, if at all. I have bought and sold out of RHC many a time, with some nice profits. I would like the forums opinion on RHC in the present climate. It seems to have been doing a whole lot of nothing since May '06. Although it does have an annual report due out at the end of this month.

Thankyou

e Mark


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## bunyip (15 August 2006)

eMark said:
			
		

> Hello
> 
> I've noticed (when searching) that Ramsay Health Care hasn't had much discussion of late, if at all. I have bought and sold out of RHC many a time, with some nice profits. I would like the forums opinion on RHC in the present climate. It seems to have been doing a whole lot of nothing since May '06. Although it does have an annual report due out at the end of this month.
> 
> ...




Ramsey is one of those stocks that's been sleepy for a while but has recently come to life. Shorter term trend has changed to up, longer term trend is not quite clear at present but is showing signs of changing from downtrend to uptrend.
On Balance Volume is rising, showing that the stock is coming under buying pressure.
Bear in mind though that Healthcare is one of the most bearish sectors in the Australian market.
If trading against the sector doesn't faze you, then Ramsey might be worth considering as a buy prospect when/if it pulls back temporarily, then takes off again.

Bunyip


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## Phoenix (15 August 2006)

I just shorted this stock today on open . I don't know about you people but my system has just given me a short signal.


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## bunyip (15 August 2006)

Phoenix said:
			
		

> I just shorted this stock today on open . I don't know about you people but my system has just given me a short signal.




Phoenix

I'm interested in hearing more about this system of yours that told you to go short on the open today. Or is that classified information?

Because this stock is going against its sector, I wouldn't be enticed into buying it. But neither can I see any reason to short it at present.

Bunyip


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## It's Snake Pliskin (17 August 2006)

eMark said:
			
		

> Hello
> 
> I've noticed (when searching) that Ramsay Health Care hasn't had much discussion of late, if at all. I have bought and sold out of RHC many a time, with some nice profits. I would like the forums opinion on RHC in the present climate. It seems to have been doing a whole lot of nothing since May '06. Although it does have an annual report due out at the end of this month.
> 
> ...




e Mark,

What were the catalysts for buying and selling before? And how is that different now, either technically or fundamentally?


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## eMark (26 August 2006)

Apologies for taking a while to return comment.

No real catalysts initially, (apart from Ramsays strong record to date) simply buying on the dips and selling on the highs.

Ramsay was one of the first stocks I ever traded. 

On Thursday I sold out of RHC @ 9.78 because I was getting tired of the stock tripping over my BUY price @ 9.58 by 10-20c, and then slipping back under, and missing out on some decent profit. So finally I took some profit. What I was concerned about (i.e. why I didn't sell previously) was the fear that it would shoot up back over 10.00.

Yesterday I bought straight back in at Thursdays SELL price 9.78, because after holding on since May, and taking a little profit on Thursday I was not about to miss out on what I believe will be an impressive annual report from Ramsay on Monday 28th.

Did you see what happened to Healthscope.... 

What do others think about Monday’s upcoming annual report?

Cheers

eMark

p.s. Here's to Monday.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (26 August 2006)

eMark said:
			
		

> Apologies for taking a while to return comment.
> 
> No real catalysts initially, (apart from Ramsays strong record to date) simply buying on the dips and selling on the highs.
> 
> ...




eMark,

Do you consider yourself a trader or investor? Technical or fundamental? 

From your post you seem a bit influenced by the price and the report coming out suggesting both. It appears you have given your broker some money, too.


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## eMark (27 August 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> eMark,
> 
> Do you consider yourself a trader or investor? Technical or fundamental?
> 
> From your post you seem a bit influenced by the price and the report coming out suggesting both. It appears you have given your broker some money, too.




I admit I'm probably at this point more of a trader than an investor. I have only been "trading" for about a year. My sole objective at this point in time is too pay down a mortage, then look at where I'm going after that.

Fundamentals would also describe what I look too. 

Not enough knowledge re technical.

But that's all ok, you have got to start somewhere.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (29 August 2006)

eMark said:
			
		

> I admit I'm probably at this point more of a trader than an investor. I have only been "trading" for about a year. My sole objective at this point in time is too pay down a mortage, then look at where I'm going after that.
> 
> Fundamentals would also describe what I look too.
> 
> ...




It appears you got hammered today!


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## Dutchy3 (29 August 2006)

Hi All

This stock is Dristributing heavily. Volumes are up considerably on the run up since start 2003. Only question is are stronger hands taking the volumes or is the smart money selling out to others. The big week back in 03/03/06 should of bought much higher prices ... and it didn't.

If I was long I'd happily take my profits and look for greener pastures.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (30 August 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> Hi All
> 
> This stock is Dristributing heavily. Volumes are up considerably on the run up since start 2003. Only question is are stronger hands taking the volumes or is the smart money selling out to others. The big week back in 03/03/06 should of bought much higher prices ... and it didn't.
> 
> If I was long I'd happily take my profits and look for greener pastures.




Yes that big volume day!


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## eMark (30 August 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> It appears you got hammered today!




Well I'm glad you have derived pleasure in someone elses drop. 

Maybe you could consider dispensing some insight into what you think about this stock, the sector and anything else that would be helpful next time.


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## Phoenix (30 August 2006)

Hi Mark

I'm srry i didn't reply earlier but i only saw this thread come to life today and found i hadn't answered your question. So here it goes .

My system is completely mechanical with neural networks added in. Generaly it uses bollinger bands and rsi along with 3 moving averages. I follow all the standard rules of trading by using a trailing stop e.t.c. The neural networks are there only as a guide line. If you back test any system the most wins your going to get realistically is about 50%, while with neural networks i can get around 80%. Thats all wonderful and great but neural networks have one major draw back they suck bad in down trending stocks (ie it will say buy and keep you with the stock all the way through the down trend). But by combining the signals together of the neural network system with this custom system i get far better trading results. Following trend lines and stock news also helps.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (31 August 2006)

eMark said:
			
		

> Well I'm glad you have derived pleasure in someone elses drop.
> 
> Maybe you could consider dispensing some insight into what you think about this stock, the sector and anything else that would be helpful next time.




So it seems you have taken what was clearly a joke, note the smilie, as offence. It was not the intention. :1zhelp: 

If you are looking for advice you should not look at forums. It appears you have no trading methodology, plan or belief system about the market. You may be a random walker, I don`t know. Clearly you would not be seeking comfort from people who may well be taking the money out of your pockets.

Here`s how it goes: This is all for you, dispense I will, however I don`t know your holding intention, your trading plan, methodolgies etc. So, whatever I say will be useless because it is only suited to me and the way I view the market, stock etc. I have a trading plan, methodolgies, convictions etc.

Your comments prior:



> No real catalysts initially, (apart from Ramsays strong record to date) simply buying on the dips and selling on the highs.




rule 1: don`t fall in love with companies. 



> I admit I'm probably at this point more of a trader than an investor. I have only been "trading" for about a year. My sole objective at this point in time is too pay down a mortage, then look at where I'm going after that.
> 
> Fundamentals would also describe what I look too.
> 
> Not enough knowledge re technical.




So if you look to fundamentals why buy and sell so much? The fundamental time frame is generally longer - investing.

I suggest you decide which you want to be: a speculator or investor. Then you can get some education re: the technical approach. Be warned it is a minefield of hit and miss approaches, then there is the mechanical vs discretionary debate etc.

For me:
RHC was becoming a buy before the announcement, but after, it was clearly not a buy. But this doesn`t mean much as I have pointed out above.

Next time give something to work with and we can have a real good chat.

Take care now.
Snake


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## eMark (31 August 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> So it seems you have taken what was clearly a joke, note the smilie, as offence. It was not the intention. :1zhelp:
> 
> If you are looking for advice you should not look at forums. It appears you have no trading methodology, plan or belief system about the market. You may be a random walker, I don`t know. Clearly you would not be seeking comfort from people who may well be taking the money out of your pockets.
> 
> ...




Well Snake, you have pretty much hit the nail on the head. I've only been "trading" for about a year, and apart from "watching" a few companies over the last year (ie what their share price does from week to week, and where they sit in the week to week climate), I am really still forming what kind of investor and/or trader I am.

Yes I speculate with some, and some I know I really should hold due to their "fundamentals". But the tempatation to make money can be overpowering.

Yeah I guess I did take offence, but you know how us sensitive types are  I would love to have the time to really educate myself on the inner technical workings of the markets, but I work full time etc. Yeah I know, bla bla bla, I need to make the time. It fascinates me the detail some people go into (obviously for reason)

I hope we can keep in touch, you certainly have a long history on here.

Here's to Ramsay  

eMark


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## It's Snake Pliskin (31 August 2006)

eMark said:
			
		

> Well Snake, you have pretty much hit the nail on the head. I've only been "trading" for about a year, and apart from "watching" a few companies over the last year (ie what their share price does from week to week, and where they sit in the week to week climate), I am really still forming what kind of investor and/or trader I am.
> 
> Yes I speculate with some, and some I know I really should hold due to their "fundamentals". But the tempatation to make money can be overpowering.
> Yeah I guess I did take offence, but you know how us sensitive types are  I would love to have the time to really educate myself on the inner technical workings of the markets, but I work full time etc. Yeah I know, bla bla bla, I need to make the time. It fascinates me the detail some people go into (obviously for reason)
> ...




eMark,

Make the money without the temptation and you will become a master trader. Being sensitive in the markets is a no,no!

Look at the beginner thread for info on technicals etc.

Here`s to smilies :bigun2:


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## Hansel (29 November 2006)

I just wanted to get anyones thoughts on a potential break out from $11. RHC closed at $11.05 today, could be a potential buy if it continues above this.


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## Kauri (29 November 2006)

Hansel said:
			
		

> I just wanted to get anyones thoughts on a potential break out from $11. RHC closed at $11.05 today, could be a potential buy if it continues above this.




     I'm waiting for a good move through $11.20, but lately it seems every up day is followed by a down day.    However, my having said that is enough reason for it to _take off_..


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## murbella (23 May 2007)

Hi All,

I'm thinking about buying into RHC with a long term view. In my opinion, current reports etc appear to indicate good management and the price is around what I feel is fair value. Given that I'm a newbie I'd appreciate any thoughts from the forum.

Cheers,
Murbella


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## Kuri (25 August 2009)

This thread seems to have been quiet for a long time. The rumours are starting about a possiible capital rasing for Ramsay which should give the stock some interest one way or the other. My only concern is with it's high debt. As one analyst quipped "it is enough to make a sailor blush". Anybody else having a look at a play at the raising?

Kuri


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## Kuri (27 August 2009)

RHC went into Trading Halt today and announced a capital raising. It also stated that the new shares (I am not sure if only for institutions) will be eligible for the dividend which I have not seen before. They are looking at raising 40 million dollars from retail investors and you can buy a parcel up to $15,000. Anybody else out there looking at taking their full entitlement?

Kuri


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## notting (29 October 2012)

Look out below?


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 February 2013)

RHC take my fancy but am a bit reticent to invest after such a stellar performance.

Jump in and follow the trend, or is it toppy?

I would be interested in ASF members' comments.

A 1 year weekly chart.






gg


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## piggybank (3 December 2013)

Update - P&F Daily


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## peaceofmind (12 December 2013)

stock has overshot its fundamentals a long time ago. currently a market cap of over $8bn and a $9bn enterprise value. 

Its forecast p/e is 24 on 2015, which is 100% above the ASX index. Thats a huge valuation premium. On yield- its yield of 2.4% is ~125% premium to the ASX of around 5.4% 2015.

look at the chart to see how parabolic it is.
	

		
			
		

		
	




Return approx 300% since 2010. Earnings only up about 50% since then leaving a gap of 250% for price to earnings ratio expansion - which looks very frothy at the moment. in its latest profit report profit was up by around 15%,but still not much yield which suggests a fair amount of capex to achieve this growth.

Its making acquisitions, but with a market value of $8bn, such acquisitions of small <$200m companies do little to earnings per share and nothing to dividends.


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## piggybank (21 December 2013)

P&F Daily Update...


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## piggybank (3 January 2014)

Just no stopping this stock presently....


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## pixel (14 February 2014)

The pullback to 50% of the Nov-Jan range seems to be completed; recent volume suggests "someone" may have been accumulating. 




If today's breakout holds, this may be an opportunity to buy or top up.


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## peter2 (25 October 2017)

@Boggo , @Porper  Would either of you post a EW chart of RHC please. 
The recent price move, up from 61 support has my attention but looking at the weekly/monthly it seems the chart is showing a larger corrective abc pattern that is not complete. 

Would you confirm that the c wave has more to go (down to 55)?


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## Boggo (25 October 2017)

On the weekly it seems to have achieved the min Wave C level. I am always a bit wary when that happens too early time wise as this has, not always but often indicates that the W.C is not done with yet.

The $68 level features on both the weekly and daily charts and is close to the 50% retracement level on the daily.

Both are difficult to to put a foundation pattern on, I don't like to "force" an EW view.
Sorry I can't be anymore helpful on this Peter.


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## peter2 (25 October 2017)

Thanks. Actually you were helpful in that you agreed with me. Your min wave C was minor support and your typical wave C lower down coincide with major support (prior lows). 

It's not something I'm going to put in a medium term portfolio as the probabilities are still 50:50.


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## Porper (25 October 2017)

peter2 said:


> @Boggo , @Porper  Would either of you post a EW chart of RHC please.
> The recent price move, up from 61 support has my attention but looking at the weekly/monthly it seems the chart is showing a larger corrective abc pattern that is not complete.
> 
> Would you confirm that the c wave has more to go (down to 55)?




I agree with Boggo's chart on the daily. Down to $54.25 as a minimum. 




On the weekly a complex Head & Shoulders could be forming. This offers a much deeper retracement. Longer term even $30.00 is on the cards, being the measured move out of the H&S and from an Elliott Wave perspective as well. I wouldn't be touching this personally.


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## Triathlete (25 October 2017)

I am expecting it to go lower based on cycles....


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## peter2 (28 May 2018)

Thanks to @Boggo , @Porper  and @Triathlete  for those charts.
All analyses indicated that lower prices were probable. 

Right now RHC is at a significant support level ($61). If this gives way then price is likely to get to our agreed target (~$55). The series of lower highs forms a descending triangle. 
This is one I'm not keen to buy off support.


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## peter2 (7 June 2018)

Nice job team. RHC has fallen into our projected wave C zone.


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## notting (22 June 2018)

The firm revealed a staggering 12 per cent fall in women having babies in its hospitals for the month of May, as patients opt for the public sector to avoid thousands of dollars in out of pocket costs.
Health care sector take note!
RHC down another 2.4% after yesterdays 7% rout.
$56.11
It blew off 54.40 yesterday to finish 57.49.
So watch what happens if it retests that low.


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## JTLP (22 June 2018)

notting said:


> The firm revealed a staggering 12 per cent fall in women having babies in its hospitals for the month of May, as patients opt for the public sector to avoid thousands of dollars in out of pocket costs.
> Health care sector take note!
> RHC down another 2.4% after yesterdays 7% rout.
> $56.11
> ...




The babies born in public is a perfectly viable option now. With the new hospital builds and upgrades, public hospitals have private room maternity suites. You’re only really getting an extra couple of days in hospital under a private admission. 

Plus, obstetrician costs are a joke, and you can’t claim any of these through anyone! Private health can’t help as it’s out of hospital. So no point going private.


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## Triathlete (23 June 2018)

notting said:


> Health care sector take note!
> RHC down another 2.4% after yesterdays 7% rout.
> $56.11
> It blew off 54.40 yesterday to finish 57.49.
> So watch what happens if it retests that low.



Would you like to give your projected view on this stock as to where you think it is headed near term.???

My own view is a lot of traders and investors were caught out so now the traders will be trying to manipulate the price to hold it up as long as possible while trying to get out of their long positions as best they can then price will collapse again...time will tell though..


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## Knobby22 (24 June 2018)

JTLP said:


> The babies born in public is a perfectly viable option now. With the new hospital builds and upgrades, public hospitals have private room maternity suites. You’re only really getting an extra couple of days in hospital under a private admission.
> 
> Plus, obstetrician costs are a joke, and you can’t claim any of these through anyone! Private health can’t help as it’s out of hospital. So no point going private.



It was the anethatist that I was upset about. Really ripped. Understand completely why people are going public.


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## notting (24 June 2018)

Triathlete said:


> Would you like to give your projected view on this stock as to where you think it is headed near term.???
> 
> My own view is a lot of traders and investors were caught out so now the traders will be trying to manipulate the price to hold it up as long as possible while trying to get out of their long positions as best they can then price will collapse again...time will tell though..



I have a funny story on this.

About 9 months ago I rang in to Sky News business because there was an analyst fund manager guy talking about the merits of this business. He was recommending it as a buy and had just made this comment about how when all these people are saying something is a buy then it probably isn't!

I had seen about 5 annalists fundy guys coming on in the week before him making the same recommendation about buying it! No one seemed to be saying sell it.

I cheekily pointed out to him that everyone I saw coming on the show was saying it was a buy and so according to his philosophy then shouldn't he be selling it and not recommending it as a buy. He got the joke and with a wry smile maintained the buy recommendation!! 7.30 then now 5.60.
It's holding weekly support and had what looked like a great blow off low on Thursday.
So I have no problem buying it here! Very solid business and private health care ain't going away despite the glitch at present.


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## JTLP (25 June 2018)

Knobby22 said:


> It was the anethatist that I was upset about. Really ripped. Understand completely why people are going public.




You don’t think about these services when your partner is in pain, but that pain passes. What doesn’t is the sting from these extra “helpers”.


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## notting (26 June 2018)

Fallen through what looked like it may have been a blow off low last week.
So unless some buyers step up fast, stop out for short term.
Still has high PE and is not expected to perform in the short term, but still longer term great place to be.


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## galumay (26 June 2018)

I had a bit of a look as it had got cheap enough to pique my interest. The debt is the issue for me, its outside my zone of confidence.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 January 2022)

Ramsay Health Care says the latest restrictions on elective surgeries in the omicron-hit states of NSW and Victoria may have a material impact on its full-year results if they are as prolonged as the restrictions during last year’s delta outbreak.

Ramsay operates 72 private hospitals in Australia and has market share of about 30 per cent of private hospital procedures in NSW, about 18 per cent in Victoria, and about 27 per cent in Queensland and Western Australia.

(..... in response to rising COVID 19 cases in NSW, restrictions on non-urgent overnight Category 2 and Category 3 elective surgery are to be introduced on all private hospitals in NSW effective 10 January 2022. 
.... and changes by Victorian Department of Health and Human Services to the surgical restrictions imposed in that state, that were effective immediately, Thursday 6th January. Elective surgery is now restricted to urgent elective surgery procedures, including Category 1 admissions in [nearly] all private hospitals and day procedure centres, state-wide )


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## Dona Ferentes (20 April 2022)

the complexity of the deal might see it take a while. And is there any likelihood of a second bidder? RHC closed at $64.39 last night

_In response to the recent media speculation, Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC) confirms that it has received a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal from a consortium of financial investors led by KKR to acquire 100% of the shares in Ramsay by way of a scheme of arrangement._

_Under the Indicative Proposal, Ramsay shareholders would be entitled to receive *A$88.00 per share cash,* less any ordinary or special dividends paid to shareholders after the date of the Indicative Proposal (including the ordinary dividend of $0.485 per share paid on 31 March 2022). Ramsay shareholders would have the option to receive part of the consideration in unlisted scrip in the Consortium holding entity. _

_If the scheme of arrangement were implemented, Ramsay would be permitted to pay a fully franked special dividend to distribute all available franking credits to shareholders. The franking account balance as at 31 December 2021 (prior to the payment of the FY22 Interim Dividend) was $823 million._

_The Indicative Proposal is subject to a number of conditions, including (but not limited to): 
• completion of satisfactory due diligence; 
• no disposal of any of Ramsay’s subsidiaries or properties; 
• final approval of the Consortium’s investment committee; 
• entry into a scheme implementation deed on customary terms and conditions; 
• regulatory approvals (including Foreign Investment Review Board); and _
_• Ramsay shareholder approval. _


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> the complexity of the deal might see it take a while. And is there any likelihood of a second bidder? RHC closed at $64.39 last night
> 
> _In response to the recent media speculation, Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC) confirms that it has received a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal from a consortium of financial investors led by KKR to acquire 100% of the shares in Ramsay by way of a scheme of arrangement._
> 
> ...



KKK and Barrenjoey their bagmen in Australia for the RHC takeover, debt and Co/Prop arranging are appearing with increasing frequency in the Private Schoolboys Gazette, the AFR. 

I awoke from a well earned snooze at 3.30pm this afternoon to see and buy a few more RHC to add to my holdings, as there seemed to be movement in the maternity ward. 

It's a 50/50 bet, deal goes through gain about $10, deal doesn't lose $10 a share. It seems a few others shared my thoughts from the volume.

The 5 day chart is interesting. So many balls in the air, so few know if it is a goer or not. 

Or do they?







gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (19 May 2022)

RHC is one of the very few of mine to be in the green atm. today. 

Hopefully another offer eventuates, although I doubt it. 

KKR seems to be set on recent trading to takeover at $88.






gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 May 2022)

HA HA.

Half a million dollars worth of shorters got their bums burnt in the first 30 minutes of trading RHC.

Davos starts today so they'll be shifting some of the geriatrics caught in flagrant delecto with hookers and having heart attacks over to some proper hospitals owned by RHC in France.

I may have another small bite.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2022)

Profit before tax down 25.1 per cent to $538.5 million 
Sales up 3.1 per cent to $13.74 billion.
Final fully franked dividend of 48.5cps
Total dividends per share fell 39.7 per cent to 97¢ per share on earnings down 39.7 per cent to $1.16 per share.
It said underlying earnings growth in FY 2023 will benefit from additional capacity and recent European acquisitions.

This week private equity group KKR proposed an alternative takeover structure to Ramsay, with the board calling it “_*meaningfully inferior.”*_


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2022)

KKR has pulled its $88 a share_* all-cash *_offer Ramsay Health Care, and told the company it would like to discuss its alternate proposal in more detail.

.... consortium of deep-pocketed funds and having been unable to gain access to due diligence at Ramsay’s operations in France, wants to acquire Ramsay’s Australian operations and spin its 52.8 per cent holding in France’s Ramsay Sante back to Ramsay investors.

....... down _about 7%, to under $68_


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 September 2022)

Predictably following KKR taking their bid away RHC has fallen over 10% this morning. 

I'm surprised the volume is not a bit higher. 

Who knows, there may be a plan B.

gg


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## Miner (13 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> KKR has pulled its $88 a share_* all-cash *_offer Ramsay Health Care, and told the company it would like to discuss its alternate proposal in more detail.
> 
> .... consortium of deep-pocketed funds and having been unable to gain access to due diligence at Ramsay’s operations in France, wants to acquire Ramsay’s Australian operations and spin its 52.8 per cent holding in France’s Ramsay Sante back to Ramsay investors.
> 
> ....... down _about 7%, to under $68_



Another +10 % down today.
What's there tomorrow?


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## Miner (13 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Predictably following KKR taking their bid away RHC has fallen over 10% this morning.
> 
> I'm surprised the volume is not a bit higher.
> 
> ...



Did u predict KKR bid was a stunt 😳


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