# Fundamental investing, all the reports but it's still a guess?



## mattryanshares (8 February 2011)

Im definitely interested and leaning towards fundamental investing/ trading.

How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?

The reason I say this is I know of a company on here that has recently gone into receivership. Its in my industry so i know it well and it kicked off a few years ago buying up smaller companies that i work in. The thing is the people that were running it and running the smaller companies had very little experience, project managers and the likes. It also grew extremly quickly and boasted of a new technology that everyone working in the industry new to be a joke.
Ive just started investing and going back reading all the old posts it looked like a good deal from an outsider. But to all us on hands guy the company was always a joke???
So how do you find out and read more than just what the company wants you to read???


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## tech/a (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

And thats the problem.
They arent going to shoot themselves in the foot with those who are share holders.

I dont recall ever reading a report which states---

"Going a little rough--banks re appraising our servacibility and assetts being re valued---invest with caution!!"

Even so some people wouldnt even consider this.
Blinded by blurb.
You and I know of a stock at the moment which is 10-12c hasnt made a profit and isnt producing---trading at its highest level for 10 yrs---but according to followers this will just keep powering on although us techies can see signs of weakness.

As you know I have no time for Fundamentals.

They can be manipulated.
My perception of those Fundamentals needs to gel with everyone else if it doesnt I could be sitting in a stock for years with only reports and My opinion!
I can see everything I want in seconds on one page on a screen.
I can trade a stock with a few minutes research and pick up a tidy profit.
Can and have traded 25 different companies in a Month and still ---I have a life!!

Is it a guess.
No its an opinion of opportunity.
A perception of analysis.


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## Tysonboss1 (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> Im definitely interested and leaning towards fundamental investing/ trading.
> 
> How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?
> 
> ...




Well flicking past the glossy pages of the report is a start.


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## luke256 (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

I find its too much work to analyse the financials of numerous companies. I used to copy the financials into excel and make adjustments based on what is in the notes and available elsewhere.

For example: If certain expenses were capitalised in the balance sheet and after reading the notes to the financial statements thought there was no value in those assets, i would increase the expenses (P&L) then decrease the asset in the balance sheets to reflect this. Then recalculate all the ratio analysis. 

I think you need a very strong accounting background to be able to read between the lines and understand how they calculate provisions, assets values etc.   

It would take me hours and wasn't worth the effort for me.


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## motorway (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> Im definitely interested and leaning towards fundamental investing/ trading.
> 
> *How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?
> *
> ...




Might be an interesting case to look at

Compare charts (TA ) with the thread posts

What was the voting and the weighing --The Charts
revealing compared to stated opinions..

TA as many aspects one is that it is the unstated opinions than sometimes matter the most....

Motorway


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## ParleVouFrancois (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Yo Tech are you talking about PEN? People get CRAZY bullish about that stock for some reason, hardly fundamental investing at it's finest (an explorer that isn't producing and won't be for some time, pretty hard to value imo).

The whole idea behind fundamental investing is you look at the numbers, and not the pretty pictures on the front, except for massive accounting fraud (e.g. Enron) you should be pretty well led from the cashflow statements (profits can be deceiving). I'd agree that it takes a long time to come to a conclusion on "marginal" companies, ones that MIGHT be a bargain fundamentally, however I've realized all you have to do is find companies that are massively discounted, e.g. 50% or more, based on cashflows/assets. Obviously it takes much longer than Tech's technical analysis, but I'm personally not comfortable trading/investing unless I know what's on the balance sheet etc, each to their own, no need to hate if we all make buckets of g-packs am I right?

PVF.


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## ROE (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> Im definitely interested and leaning towards fundamental investing/ trading.
> 
> How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?




I rarely invest in areas I have little knowledge regardless of their potential.
you cant evaluate a business if you have little knowledge or its industries
and market place...

I usually know the area I want to invest in then I go and look for companies
operate in this area, rather then the other way around.

Most of the time you dont need to buy many companies just buy a few right one
once in a while that is all that is needed and spend all the time
in between reading and researching for the right one...

This is a good quote from Sun Tsu
"Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the Attack"

most of the time just sit tight and defense, attack only if you assure victory


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## Tysonboss1 (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

The Financial statements of a business tell a story and these are more important than the glossy pages full of hopes and promises. But fundamental investings is also more than just that.


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## Wysiwyg (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?



Don't have to read their rose tinted glasses outlook. For example, J.P. Morgan Chase and Co. became substantial holders (5%) on the 19th January of  CGA Mining by dollar cost average accumulation in prior months. Low and behold, near three weeks later CGA has reported a 400% increase in net profits with the share price daily high cracking a new A.T.H.
Do you think they are privy to details the home boys can't see?


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## skc (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> Im definitely interested and leaning towards fundamental investing/ trading.
> 
> How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?
> 
> ...




As other have pointed out...
1. You can reduce your research to industries that you understand well. 
2. You can acquire knowledge of new industries.
3. You can look at financial statements which is difficult (and illegal) to just make up.
4. You apply conservatism in your analysis rather than rely on blue sky (If you want to buy blue sky and hype, I would say technical analysis might be better)
5. You apply discipline and get out when your assumptions are proven wrong.
6. You exercise patience and wait for confirmation of your assumptions before entering positions if needed.



tech/a said:


> And thats the problem. I dont recall ever reading a report which states---
> "Going a little rough--banks re appraising our servacibility and assetts being re valued---invest with caution!!"
> 
> Even so some people wouldnt even consider this.
> ...




Don't confuse ineffective fundamental analysis with fundamental analysis is ineffective!



ParleVouFrancois said:


> Yo Tech are you talking about PEN? People get CRAZY bullish about that stock for some reason, hardly fundamental investing at it's finest (an explorer that isn't producing and won't be for some time, pretty hard to value imo)




So true. Value is a relative concept and many people don't / refuse to understand. The only way imo is to do some peer analysis and see what other prospects are being valued at. Just need to keep in mind that any valuation gaps can be closed by your share going up or other shares coming down...


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## mattryanshares (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Haha I was trying to keep stock names out of this thread but no matter. The company i was talking about wasnt PEN.

The other thing i was getting at is yes you can examine the companies reports and do PE ratios but what would be even harder would be to look at the people involved in the business. Sure you can see who's at the top and calling the so called big shots. But who is quoting the jobs in a construction company, who has innovative impressive engineering that works with the people using it as well as the client. Even safety policies and procedures. The best policy is worth nothing if the employess think its a joke or dont have the experience to to sift the muck from the clay.

I think this is fundamental and i agree i think its wise to invest in industry or areas that you understand other wise it would be extremely difficult. 

Thanks for all your replys.

Matt


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## ROE (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> Haha I was trying to keep stock names out of this thread but no matter. The company i was talking about wasnt PEN.
> 
> The other thing i was getting at is yes you can examine the companies reports and do PE ratios but what would be even harder would be to look at the people involved in the business. Sure you can see who's at the top and calling the so called big shots. But who is quoting the jobs in a construction company, who has innovative impressive engineering that works with the people using it as well as the client. Even safety policies and procedures. The best policy is worth nothing if the employess think its a joke or dont have the experience to to sift the muck from the clay.
> 
> ...




Get information that you can have access to or within your control

no point agonising on information you cant get or impossible to get
access to CEO and have a chat to him is almost impossible unless you 
are big fund mangers but there are ways around it that you can do.

You can read a lot of papers, articles and watch business related show eventually you know most of the good one and not so good one, you can observe the way they talk, you can go back to few annual reports and see if they walk that talk.

stuff like that you can build very good profile on management...
I never like TLS until recently, I watch the way Sol talk and recruit senior management I said this is a guy that in for the money not the business so no go zone for me...

Another way you can see how business going is actually do a scuttlebutt techniques By Phil Fishers I constant use them in stocks I have interest.

when Dominos pizza was around $2 and got analyst downgrade and I start to get 
interested in it.. I actually went around all the DMP stores in my area and see how
they doing, all I see is business is booming, then I went on holiday and I look for DMP stores around there too and check it out again I see plenty of folks buying pizza.

I then casually ask my friends and family during conversation, hey you reckon pizza hut is a better pizza then dominos and most said they prefer dominos pizza 

DMP is a BUY for me despite what analyst are saying, nothing beat the information on the ground not some guys in the high rise office...

I did the same with TRS, I start to like the business but I see competition start to heat up with hot dollars and top bargain open up almost all the places that TRS used to be the only operator... so I decided to stay put and low and behold they came out with a downgrade.

**** like that works you dont need to dig through financial records, well you do but there are many other easy complement techniques 

After I bought the stock I still constantly using scuttlebutt techniques and I bail
when I see the sign...

My preferences is to hold forever but should fundamental change I'm out and look for better business...

My Scuttlebutt also tell me a lot about TLS mobile subscriptions this half
I been talking to a lot of people with Vodafone and Three mobiles


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## motorway (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> Haha I was trying to keep stock names out of this thread but no matter. The company i was talking about wasnt PEN.
> 
> The other thing i was getting at is yes you can examine the companies reports and do PE ratios but what would be even harder would be to look at the people involved in the business. Sure you can see who's at the top and calling the so called big shots. But who is quoting the jobs in a construction company, who has innovative impressive engineering that works with the people using it as well as the client. Even safety policies and procedures. The best policy is worth nothing if the employess think its a joke or dont have the experience to to sift the muck from the clay.
> 
> ...




ok but look at the charts yourself
 then

Motorway


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## mattryanshares (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

yeah i will im not much of a chart reader though!!! Learning slowly.


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## motorway (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



mattryanshares said:


> yeah i will im not much of a chart reader though!!! Learning slowly.




The most important thing ?

Is the trend !

Motorway


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## mattryanshares (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Yes wll looking at the 10 year chart im sure alot of tech traders made a bunch of money, it would be the longterm holders that lost out!!!


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## Market Depth (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Just have fun learning and applying both disciplines. Fundamentals however, will have you second guessing your opinions more so than technicals IMHO. It does take a life long journey to master, so be patient. Wait for the right stockmarket correction, wait for the recovery to commence, and begin buying good companies at good prices. It's as easy as that


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## So_Cynical (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Half the posters in this thread shouldn't really be posting here at all...and should know better, after all you don't see me posting in TA threads or even the stock threads popular with day traders and trendy's etc. 

Matt...first up PEN has no fundamentals, PEN has pretty much nothing and so any investment/punting decisions you make in regards to PEN can not be based on any hard fundamentals...i probably shouldn't be posting in this thread either, im at best a light fundamental punter.

For example...Looking at my recent SUN trade i completed today, i brought in on the day of the Toowoomba flood based almost purely on my speculation/belief/thinking that because the SP had not broken below $8 that the worst was over, the panic sellers were taken out and that $8.05 to 8.20 would be the low.

I was subsequently proven correct, and today profited from that...now part of me understands that i could only do that trade because im a long term holder and watcher of SUN and thus was very confident in my understanding of the fundamentals of the stock and the SP...so i could thus buy with fundamental confidence.



motorway said:


> The most important thing ?
> 
> Is the trend !
> 
> Motorway




Have to agree Motorway...the down-trend is your friend...never be afraid of it as long as you have fundamental understanding of it.


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## motorway (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



> Have to agree Motorway...the down-trend is your friend...never be afraid of it as long as you have fundamental understanding of it.




Yes you can uses a trend anyway that is optimal

eg You do not have to buy breakouts ( that might well fail )

Motorway


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## Gringotts Bank (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Lincoln Indicators does FA better than anyone else I've seen.  Very expensive, but if I had a multi-mill$ blue chip portfolio, it would be number one on my list of must haves.


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## So_Cynical (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Lincoln Indicators does FA better than anyone else I've seen.  Very expensive, but if I had a multi-mill$ blue chip portfolio, it would be number one on my list of must haves.




So if you had a multi million portfolio that you got by not using Lincoln Indicators, you would then use them?  and why the hell wouldn't you be relaxing on the beach in Phuket, getting a $10 coconut oil massage? i know that's what i would be doing if i had a multi million portfolio.


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## Market Depth (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Lincoln Indicators does FA better than anyone else I've seen.  Very expensive, but if I had a multi-mill$ blue chip portfolio, it would be number one on my list of must haves.




WOW! there's a name in the industry I haven't heard of for a loooong time. You'll need very very deep pockets


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## Market Depth (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



So_Cynical said:


> So if you had a multi million portfolio that you got by not using Lincoln Indicators, you would then use them?  and why the hell wouldn't you be relaxing on the beach in Phuket, getting a $10 coconut oil massage? i know that's what i would be doing if i had a multi million portfolio.




Lots of different Clients use Lincoln, from sports people to sucessful business people, large coporations, property developers, and private traders. You can be wealthy in other areas of life, not just from trading. And these clients have the money to pay for quality advice and guidence.


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## Gringotts Bank (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

cynical, I mean like if I had $$$ in blue chips and wanted to just sit and watch it, collecting divs and not trading it.  Would take the stress out of it knowing that the companies have reasonable financials.  Maybe I inherited the millions from a long lost aunty.


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## mattryanshares (8 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*

Whats Lincons hit and miss ratio???


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## Wysiwyg (9 February 2011)

*Re: Fundamental investing, all the reports but its still a guess?*



motorway said:


> The most important thing ?
> 
> Is the trend !
> 
> Motorway



Yes well if this subject was on another thread I would be very interested in opinions on trading a trend.


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## Frankie (9 February 2011)

mattryanshares said:


> How ever how do you truly form an opinion on a company you know nothing about when all your reading is there own propaganda?




Hi mattryanshares,

I always tell myself to be careful when I read anything. When I read, I ask myself this: 


*What does the person writing the article have to gain from writing it?​*
My preference is to follow the advice of independent research houses. 

I look for research houses that have good track records for recommending stock.

I look for consensus amongst research houses. I believe that the more research houses recommending the same stock the better.

I always try to be careful with what I read. I’m on the look out for facts, not propaganda!


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## Tysonboss1 (9 February 2011)

Frankie said:


> Hi mattryanshares,
> 
> I always tell myself to be careful when I read anything. When I read, I ask myself this:
> 
> ...




If it is being recommended by every man and his dog it may turn out to be a wonderful company but a terrible investment.

A wonderful company only makes a good investment if you can buy it at a sensible price, and if it is a market "Darling" it is probally trading at a price well over fair value, and the first sign of market jitters may see it have significant falls back towards fall value. 

( for an example of this look at Tol 10 year chart, Great business, good growth stock recommended as a buy by many investment houses, if you had bought at it's most opptomistic highs it would have been a terrible investment. Tol business is sound, it is growing but paying to much will get you in trouble)


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## Tyler Durden (11 February 2011)

I was going to create a thread asking this question, but this thread seems to be along similar lines so I'll ask it here.

Assuming one is investing for capital gains rather than dividends, wouldn't one be better off choosing more popular shares over shares of companies that have the 'fundamentals'?

I mean, if everyone thinks that company x is great (when in actual fact it's not), they'll all rush to buy the shares therefore propping the SP up. And if everyone thinks company z sucks (when in fact it is the most fundamentally sound on the market), then the SP will never go anywhere because no one likes it?


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## robusta (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> I was going to create a thread asking this question, but this thread seems to be along similar lines so I'll ask it here.
> 
> Assuming one is investing for capital gains rather than dividends, wouldn't one be better off choosing more popular shares over shares of companies that have the 'fundamentals'?
> 
> I mean, if everyone thinks that company x is great (when in actual fact it's not), they'll all rush to buy the shares therefore propping the SP up. And if everyone thinks company z sucks (when in fact it is the most fundamentally sound on the market), then the SP will never go anywhere because no one likes it?




Heaps of people thought ABC, TLS, QAN were great ten years ago - look up a ten year chart for these.

BHP was not very popular ten years ago look at that chart.


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## Tyler Durden (11 February 2011)

robusta said:


> Heaps of people thought ABC, TLS, QAN were great ten years ago - look up a ten year chart for these.
> 
> BHP was not very popular ten years ago look at that chart.




Yes, but provided you capitalised on your gain (or loss) within those ten years, that means the merit of your decision didn't really matter, as it was still decided by popularity.


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## So_Cynical (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> that means the merit of your decision didn't really matter, as it was still decided by popularity.




And many stocks got to be popular because there fundamentals changed...look at any commodity stock, low commodity price = unpopular and thus lower SP...a rising commodity price the opposite.


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## robusta (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Yes, but provided you capitalised on your gain (or loss) within those ten years, that means the merit of your decision didn't really matter, as it was still decided by popularity.




Sorry I dont understand your point. 

The point I was trying to make is if you can avoid the ordinary businesses (QAN, TLS..) and focus your attention on the extraordinary businesses you will out perform the market.
Plenty of crap companies (ABC Learning, Quintex, Bond Corporation...) were popular until just before they went broke.

You cant tell me the merit of your decision to invest in TLS, QAN or BHP would not matter 10 years ago or today.


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## Julia (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> I was going to create a thread asking this question, but this thread seems to be along similar lines so I'll ask it here.
> 
> Assuming one is investing for capital gains rather than dividends, wouldn't one be better off choosing more popular shares over shares of companies that have the 'fundamentals'?
> 
> I mean, if everyone thinks that company x is great (when in actual fact it's not), they'll all rush to buy the shares therefore propping the SP up. And if everyone thinks company z sucks (when in fact it is the most fundamentally sound on the market), then the SP will never go anywhere because no one likes it?



Ah Tyler, you have latched on to the basis of trend following, i.e. jump onto a rising SP and hold until it starts to fall.
I totally support your thinking.

(And please, fundamentalists, don't let's get into all the reasons why you don't do this.  Tyler has raised a valid point, and I'm simply endorsing it.)


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## Tysonboss1 (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> I was going to create a thread asking this question, but this thread seems to be along similar lines so I'll ask it here.
> 
> Assuming one is investing for capital gains rather than dividends, wouldn't one be better off choosing more popular shares over shares of companies that have the 'fundamentals'?
> 
> I mean, if everyone thinks that company x is great (when in actual fact it's not), they'll all rush to buy the shares therefore propping the SP up. And if everyone thinks company z sucks (when in fact it is the most fundamentally sound on the market), then the SP will never go anywhere because no one likes it?




You don't have to invest for dividends to be a fundamental investor. You just have to be buying a stock because it has two things, 

Great business 
Sensible price

And you have to be able to back these two things up with facts not hearsay.

What it comes down to is , For capital gains to occur (longterm, outside of any shorterm volitility) you need to buy a business that is either under priced that will eventually return back to fair value or Is a growing business that is not already over priced.

P.S,

 It is a myth that us Value investors have portfolios filled with obscure companies that never go any where and we just sit collecting petty dividends.

The truth is that once I indentify a Great fundamental Buy, It rarely stays around for long and I often see big capital gains and as a side note often receive solid dividend cashflow as a bonus.


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## Tyler Durden (11 February 2011)

Well let's just take a business that is morally horrific, yet financially sound in a fundamental sense. Assuming the business is against the morals of everyone, no one would want to buy the shares. So no matter how 'great' it is doing financially, the SP will not go anywhere.

But that's going off on a slight tangent. My initial pondering really was meant to say, what if everyone was wrong about a company, thinking it was great when it wasn't? The SP of that company would still go up, and if everyone is wrong about a fundamentally sound company, that company's SP would not go anywhere.


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## Tysonboss1 (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> . My initial pondering really was meant to say, what if everyone was wrong about a company, thinking it was great when it wasn't? The SP of that company would still go up, and if everyone is wrong about a fundamentally sound company, that company's SP would not go anywhere.




Yes, It will initially go up, just like every internet company back in 2000, Then it will come crashing down, like almost every internet company during the tech wreck.

Now around the time of the tech boom, "Old economy" stocks fell way out of favour Woolworths was about $4 at one stage, But guess what, the market does not ignore fundamantals forever, and the tech stocks crashed and the fundamantally sound companies started a 10year climb in capital gains and dividends.

If I wouldn't want to hold a share for 5 years, I don't want to hold it 5 minutes.

Trend following is a short term trading stratergy, which is not the game I am in. I invest, I don't trade.


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## So_Cynical (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> what if everyone was wrong about a company, thinking it was great when it wasn't? The SP of that company would still go up, and if everyone is wrong about a fundamentally sound company, that company's SP would not go anywhere.




There is always a shift in SP (popularity) when a company (fundamentally) changes from being great to being not quite as great as it was...just take CPU for example over the last 10 or so months, the share price went from a high of over $12 down to $8.50 a few months ago and now after a little run up, has gone back down to around $9.60 today and yesterday.

CPU became a little unpopular due to a 35% or so drop in profit, fundamentally there has been a small shift in the markets perception of CPU and its profitability going forward...the SP reflects that change in fundamentals...SP always does.

Can anyone think of a company that went bust with its share price going up, trending up over a period of many months? i cant think of any...the SP of any substantial stock always reflects what's going on fundamentally, just never with any great accuracy and always subject to other influences like sentiment and availability of debt etc etc.


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## ROE (11 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> Well let's just take a business that is morally horrific, yet financially sound in a fundamental sense. Assuming the business is against the morals of everyone, no one would want to buy the shares. So no matter how 'great' it is doing financially, the SP will not go anywhere.
> 
> But that's going off on a slight tangent. My initial pondering really was meant to say, what if everyone was wrong about a company, thinking it was great when it wasn't? The SP of that company would still go up, and if everyone is wrong about a fundamentally sound company, that company's SP would not go anywhere.




Most long term investors hold stock for many years this doesn't make much difference
they don't buy today and sell next week so why would they care if the share price
go up one day down the next, up again next month, go down and stay down for another year?

What they care is over all long term return.

over 10-15 years will it provide me adequate return 
Capital appreciation + dividend

Fundamentally strong companies that deliver increase earning WILL ALWAYS
get recognise, and price correctly by the market at some stage....and the time they dont price correctly we buy up in large quantities 

Every so often a new fashion will hit the market (Tulip Mania, 80's corporate raiders,  dot com, mining exploration boom etc...) 

and these fundamental strong companies may get pushed a side for a little while but they will be around once the fashion gone out of style.

You can chose to chase the fashion and get out before fashion goes out of style
or the slow and steady path without timing, without fashion and steady as she goes return...

Have a look at these fundamentally strong companies, despite crash, boom and bust do they provide long term investor (10 years) with adequate return??? I say more than adequate, I say STELLA return...

CBA, CCP, CCV,FLT, REH, TRS, WOW, ONT, DMP, QBE, NVT, TGA

I have interest in many of those listed stocks....
Long term investing in fundamentally strong companies works and it works to perfection....


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## Market Depth (11 February 2011)

Onetel


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## Tysonboss1 (11 February 2011)

ROE said:


> You can chose to chase the fashion and get out before fashion goes out of style
> or the slow and steady path without timing, without fashion and steady as she goes return...




Thats why I would be a bad trader, I was the last of my friends to get a yo yo during the yo yo craze of '98, then I was still carrying it when suddenly yo yo's were for geeks. . I would be the one left holding Astro turf.com when it crashed 90% after everyone realised it was a rubbish business if I were a trend follower.

I have no Idea what the next "craze" will be, But I know If I buy a range of good businesses at good prices I will do ok.


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## ROE (11 February 2011)

Market Depth said:


> Onetel




Yeah its investors are fundamentally strong though
Packers and Murdoch


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## ROE (11 February 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Thats why I would be a bad trader, I was the last of my friends to get a yo yo during the yo yo craze of '98, then I was still carrying it when suddenly yo yo's were for geeks. . I would be the one left holding Astro turf.com when it crashed 90% after everyone realised it was a rubbish business if I were a trend follower.
> 
> I have no Idea what the next "craze" will be, But I know If I buy a range of good businesses at good prices I will do ok.




But we do need traders and speculators in the market, the more the better 

with their fear and greed it will drive the market to historic high and bankruptcy low  so it create opportunities for value investors.

without chart readers telling people FLT and CCP look real sick I cant get them at bankruptcy price.


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## Tysonboss1 (12 February 2011)

ROE said:


> But we do need traders and speculators in the market, the more the better
> 
> with their fear and greed it will drive the market to historic high and bankruptcy low  so it create opportunities for value investors.
> 
> without chart readers telling people FLT and CCP look real sick I cant get them at bankruptcy price.




Indeed .


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## Tysonboss1 (12 February 2011)

Here is an insightful interveiw from charlie munger, It opens with some insightful thoughts. But from the 7.10 min mark he makes some comments that on this topic.

The whole video is good though.


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## Tysonboss1 (12 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> . My initial pondering really was meant to say, what if everyone was wrong about a company, thinking it was great when it wasn't? The SP of that company would still go up, and if everyone is wrong about a fundamentally sound company, that company's SP would not go anywhere.


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## Tysonboss1 (16 February 2011)




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## burglar (16 February 2011)

Tyler Durden said:


> .... what if everyone was wrong about a company, thinking it was great when it wasn't?




It's musical chairs mate, ... musical chairs!


(and insiders know when the music will stop!)


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