# OXR - Oxiana Limited



## Joe Blow

This stock has been bouncing back and forth from the early 70's to the late 80's for the past couple of months.

What will it take for it to break through $1?


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## Guest

*Re: OXR*

A MIRACLE!


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## Joe Blow

*Re: OXR*



> A MIRACLE!



It sure feels like that. I've been in and out of it a couple of times recently without much success.

I definitely feel that OXR is a good long term prospect. At the moment it just seems a bit bogged down.


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*

Hey Joe,

I saw a headline on Monday (30Aug) in the AFR (finreview) that OXR had been downgraded by brokers. Couldn't read it all but worth a look.

Looks like it's safe to accumulate at around 70c. Upside will probably kick in once people flow back into metals and energy in the next month or so. It's been quiet for the last two months for those sectors- well, for the stocks I've watched anyway!

RichKid


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## GreatPig

*Re: OXR*

From its chart, it looks to me like it peaked in Nov/Dec last year and is now gradually trending downwards.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*

Hi Folks,

Just wrote a few paras but lost it! (got logged out for some reason). So here's a summary:

IMO, Oxiana is highly leveraged to the gold price (Just compare graphs).
I don't see it falling below 70c support in the near term but I'm waiting for the trend to reverse or at least consolidate before buying in.
I reckon $1 will fall before long, but maybe in a few months. Just have to wait for the next rally in gold.
Gold is heading south again (see thread on gold) but will pick up and run further than oil did this year, IMO.
Haven't had time to check out the financial review article on the OXR downgrade yet.
(these are just my views (not recommendations) and I am most likely wrong- considering some of my recent trades- but the gold/OXR charts are worth comparing)

good luck!

RichKid


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## Redwing

*Re: OXR*

i believe thier last 1/4 report was  disapointing.. they have great copper exposure also..

could be a time to buy and hold? 

time will tell i guess..have a friend who loves OXR

REDWING


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*

Redwing,
Yep, that was probably what led to the downgrade (couldn't find the article I referred to earlier on the downgrade- maybe I saw it somewhwere else). Always an opportunity when it's going down, just have to wait for the reversal. 

Come to think of it the price may not find its way down to 70c if gold bounces up again. But maybe the recent report may still weigh on the stock, I mentioned 70c as a psychological level since there isn't any obvious support below 75c.

RichKid


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*

Okay, I reckon $1 next stop for OXR, gold rising has given it a big legup and the brokers are thumbs up on it again. It didn't fall as far as I expected and the bad report is now history. Full steam ahead as OXR has broken the downtrend.


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## cges

*OXR*

Does anyone have any news why OXR stopped trading today?


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## GreatPig

*Re: OXR*

All the announcement says is that OXR and MNR have both halted trading pending some announcement. Trading to resume either on Wednesday or after the announcement is made.

No idea what the announcement might be.

Cheers,
GP


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## stockGURU

*Re: OXR*

Been a while since this thread has seen some action so I thought I'd bring it back to life. OXR is perpetually on my watchlist as it has been a reliable range trading stock.

When GP last posted eight months ago OXR was trading around the $1 mark, it closed today at $0.91, up 2 cents. Market cap. currently around $1.15 billion.

Any views on this one particularly in view of their recent acquisition of the Golden Grove mine from Newmont? What has been keeping it down?


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## Knobby22

*Re: OXR*

I own this stock.
I think it is still undervalued.
Why is it down? Well the price has risen substantially and profits are being taken. Also it is being valued at a two years timeframe. 

I believe profits will be higher than brokers forecasts and will rise further come the third year. 

The takeover is midly positive assuming metal prices stay high. I think they will.


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*



			
				stockGURU said:
			
		

> Been a while since this thread has seen some action so I thought I'd bring it back to life. OXR is perpetually on my watchlist as it has been a reliable range trading stock.




Yep, sure is trading in a band, in fact the first post by Joe mentioned that. We are again seeing it fall back to the bottom end of the range and then recover again to be mid channel. Here's the chart, slightly slanting lower support level or you could draw a broad horizontal line around 80c, issue then is stop level as it has dipped toward the mid 70's.

I guess medium term we may see some consolidation and then a powerful breakout through resistance. BUT that's not on the chart yet so it could just as easily fall through support. High turnover in the last year. My money is on ranging for a few months.


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## muttley

*Re: OXR*

Message from the MD

"In respone to rumours in today's press concerning a potential takeover offer for Oxiana by Xstrata,Oxiana advises that it has had no contact from Xstrata and is not aware of a pending bid from that Company"

Does anyone have any details?


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## Caliente

*Re: OXR*

both companies deny it at present. I've been holding this stock for yonks. Good to finally see some driving force behind it again!


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## bvbfan

*Re: OXR*

I've had these from 10c levels but sure enough everytime I sell some they end up going for a run (sold at 98c this time)


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## muttley

*Re: OXR*

Some upward movement on this one today.Does anyone know why?


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## bvbfan

*Re: OXR*

Won't know for sure for a few days, but could be some buying ahead of takeover offer
Personally I don't think thats it, more likely presentation at Diggers and Dealers got some interest from overseas players.
Finanlly seeing the true value emerge

Still kicking myself for selling at 98c


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> Won't know for sure for a few days, but could be some buying ahead of takeover offer
> Personally I don't think thats it, more likely presentation at Diggers and Dealers got some interest from overseas players.
> Finanlly seeing the true value emerge
> 
> Still kicking myself for selling at 98c




Yeah, I agree, hard to know when a takeover is on, so many candidates out there. And we don't know what exactly xtrata is after. Let's see if there is a pullback after today's rise to an all time high.

I have not read this stock well at all. Yet another pattern to learn from for me.

Tech, this must be on your scans by now for sure.


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## Knobby22

*Re: OXR*

Didn't sell mine but then I'm an investor and could see no reason to sell.
I have not held them for a year yet in any case and so would be very hesitant to sell and pay the full capital gains tax.


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## Caliente

*Re: OXR*

Hi Knobby, just a couple of fast questions. whats the difference between selling before a year and selling after a year in terms of CGT?

I'm pretty new to the whole shares thing although I've paper traded for years. Thing is I made a profit on JHX (sold in less than a year) and then immediately bought into another stock, when will I be liable to pay the CGT for JHX?
Thanks!

Cheers maite
- Caliente


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## Knobby22

*Re: OXR*

No worries.

If you hold an investment, stock or property, for less than a year you pay the full capital gains tax. If you hold it longer, you pay half.


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## kesso

*Re: OXR*

Caliente, as I understand, if your are trading as a business and accepted by the ATO as trading as a business, any sales made within a year is taxable income, from this you can take away the costs ie sale price-purchase price plus costs = taxable income.

If you are an individual and you sell after a year it is then capital gains, and being an individual you get 50% off the capital gains tax.


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## Caliente

*Re: OXR*

Thanks! Well I'm a student (read young and inexperienced!) and I don't really have much of an income, maybe 2-3000 per annum outside of shares. So does that mean the sale of the stock will be added to my taxable income or is it still going to be chaged at 50% of the CGT rate? 

"After writing and reviewing what I've written, I'm thinking that I need to tell the ATO that trading in shares is my business. That way I can take advantage of my not paying tax yet situation."

BTW - I'm really loving this sharemarket and loving ASF. I've just dipped my heels in for real but so far everything I've touched has gone up *yay*. I think I've come in at the right time!  

Cheers for the replies kesso and Knobby


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## kesso

*Re: OXR*

The first $6000 odd is tax free to Australian residents. To claim tax deductions for trading you have to be able to prove it is a business. Its a bit complicated. If you can, revenue then from trading is added to your taxable income ando f course you then have the allowable deductions.


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## Knobby22

*Re: OXR*

As Kesso suggested, if you earn less than $6000 over a year then there is no tax payable.

I suggest you buy Personal Investment Magazine and look at the tables on the back. This will tell you all you need to know as a student.


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## Caliente

*Re: OXR*

ok - cheers for all that - now onto the trading


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## Buda

*Re: OXR*

WHATS up with OXR everyy body is talkin about it not  :


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## keepitreal

*Re: GO the OX!!*

its just broken out..


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## mikeg

*Re: OXR*

Looks as if it is off on another run up. Giddyup.


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## Ann

*Re: OXR*

Hi mikeg,

I know this stock has almost cult status. The stockholders aren't owners they are groupies!  

However in fear and trepidation I am going to dare to suggest that it has been running too hard too fast and is about to fall back on itself. Perhaps to test $1.59. Maybe even try to close the gap down to  $1.56 ?

You try running up a sheer wall and see how far you get! :


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## laurie

*Re: OXR*

Trust you ann to spoil the party!

cheers laurie


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## RichKid

*Re: OXR*



			
				Ann said:
			
		

> Hi mikeg,
> 
> I know this stock has almost cult status. The stockholders aren't owners they are groupies!
> 
> However in fear and trepidation I am going to dare to suggest that it has been running too hard too fast and is about to fall back on itself. Perhaps to test $1.59. Maybe even try to close the gap down to  $1.56 ?
> 
> You try running up a sheer wall and see how far you get! :




Well even if it falls the trend is still firmly up, just a matter of how you trade it...I agree, gravity appears to affect stock prices as well....but not as predictably (alas!).


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## laurie

*Re: OXR*

And if someone is sniffing around to do a take over bid e.g. Xstarta then it will continue the upward trend until someone else joins in the bidding...JMHO

cheers laurie


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## Ann

*Re: OXR*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> Trust you ann to spoil the party!
> 
> cheers laurie




Sorry Laurie, I don't mean to really  

I have been a very good girl and haven't once said anything unkind about MGX. I hope you noticed. I saw you there and thought no....I won't hassle Laurie by shoving up one of my charts.   

Anyway, nothing wrong with a share price doing a bit of consolidation. It strengthens its framework.


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## laurie

*Re: OXR*



			
				Ann said:
			
		

> Sorry Laurie, I don't mean to really
> 
> *I have been a very good girl and haven't once said anything unkind about MGX. I hope you noticed. I saw you there and thought no....I won't hassle Laurie by shoving up one of my charts*.
> 
> Anyway, nothing wrong with a share price doing a bit of consolidation. It strengthens its framework.




Yeh,yeh, ok you were kind about MGX thanks still pi$$ed off though!!

cheers laurie


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## Ann

*Re: OXR*

Sorry Laurie


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## laurie

*Re: OXR*

With the market ann.......not you!

cheers laurie


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## mikeg

*Re: OXR*

I agree with you Ann, the price could well fall back hard, but this is one that I have deceided to hang on to for the long run.


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## Caliente

*Re: OXR*

Can SOMEBODY say Oxiana   

The price rise is having devastating impacts on my digestive system!!!

While I'm having a ball watching my little baby grow how much is too much? 

Seriously? I'm getting close to pulling the abort trigger. Any other holders with thoughts???


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## Knobby22

*Re: OXR*

I am looking at the big Ox a bit too.
It has gone up a lot faster than expected, but remember the gold price is a factor. I will waiting until the half year report before I will consider selling.


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## Caliente

*Re: OXR*

Interesting.

But what triggers are you looking for in particular in the half-year report Knobby22 that will make you consider a sell? Do they even report bad news in those things?


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## The Barbarian Investor

A friend just sold out of Oxiana (he had $50k purchased at 0.80c)..from what he said $2 appears to be its peak(resistance) and he will wait to buy in again at a later stage..

Any thoughts??


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## nizar

im holding onto mine...

im looking at 3.00+ by year end. feb22 they release FY2005 results which i think will suprise.. gold outlook is strong, no reason 4 OXR 2 go down, plus now its in asx100, heaps of institutional buying is happening...

nothing wrong with locking in profits, but i think sp will appreciate further..


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## bvbfan

If these commodity prices stick around for 12months or more (if they last to 2007-8) then OXR could be $3-4 easily if its not taken over
Copper revenues should double and cashflows should be around $600million for this year.

Apply you own multiples and I think higher prices are justified.
Other forums have a good analysis of OXR so worth checking them out

I've had them from 10c so I'll stick it out for $3-4 at this stage


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## laurie

My only concern at the moment is when are they going to pay their first dividend   

cheers laurie


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## bvbfan

I don't think its likely until as least 2007-8, I'd rather the funds be used to grow business and lessen the debt needed for Prominent Hill development

But I am looking forward to that divident when it comes, hoping it will be around a 100% yield on my initial investment


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## Caliente

ahhahaha! that would be something wouldn't it! 

Is Oxiana your first 20-bagger?! Quite an impressive feat bvbfan - my hat to you good sir.


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## laurie

Oxiana will be floating it's Uranium to TOE Oxiana & Minotuar will hold 25% each the float will happen in March @ .25c each Oxiana & Minotuar shareholders will have first preference of the 72million stock available to the public
www.toroenergy.com.au 

cheers laurie


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## Knobby22

Noice.


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## bvbfan

Caliente said:
			
		

> Is Oxiana your first 20-bagger?! Quite an impressive feat bvbfan - my hat to you good sir.




Yes, and the first stock I bought too
 

PNA done ok too for me too

Few other ones out there with potential 5 baggers, although ones moved a bit so maybe only 4x in it now


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## shy

The last price for the day was 1.94. Yet somebody bought 1,690,000 @ 1.963 at 4:20. This is $3,317,301 worth. Very big parcel for one trade. 

I also don't understand how can somebody trade after the closing round at 4:15?  

Trade Number (s) Time Last Traded Price Volume Change Value Number of Trades 
1279 4:20:35 pm 1.963 1,690,000 +0.023 $3,317,301 1 
1245 - 1278 4:20:32 pm 1.94 613,918 -0.005 $1,191,001 34 
1235 - 1244 3:59:56 pm 1.945 62,506 +0.005 $121,574 10 
1233 - 1234 3:58:27 pm 1.94 5,000 -0.005 $9,700 2 
1225 - 1232 3:58:14 pm 1.945 158,000 +0.005 $307,310 8 
1224 3:56:40 pm 1.94 200 -0.005 $388 1 
1223 3:56:34 pm 1.945 5,000 +0.005 $9,725 1 
1221 - 1222 3:56:28 pm 1.94 32,146 -0.005 $62,363 2 
1219 - 1220 3:54:44 pm 1.945 8,880 +0.005 $17,272 2


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## laurie

> I also don't understand how can somebody trade after the closing round at 4:15?




Because the ASX closes at 16:30hrs!

cheers laurie


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## bvbfan

was probably a cross trade between one client of a broker to another
Could also have been a special portfolio crossing

codes to look for are XT or XC I think
Had a look on Westpac

04:20 PM  	$1.962  	1690000  	$3,315,780.000  	Portfolio Special Crossing
04:20 PM 	$1.940 	37701 	$73,139.940 	Overnight,Crossed


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## 77TRADER77

STRONG BUY FOR ME.......EVERYONES 'OUT' Im IN!


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## Ann

77Trader77

Please forgive my contrary view. I am only reading the chart indicators when I say this but I see what appears to be a bit of a slowing or perhaps a bit of a retrace in the OXR price. 

I am wondering if the price of Uranium was built into this stock and now that they are floating Toro will the Uranium people be moving out of the OX and into Toro?

Interesting to watch....


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## rederob

Two gaps to fill: $1.57 and $1.79
I think $1.57 is out of play untill commodity prices crash (unlikely medium term).
But $1.79 is compelling tomorrow so I hope to finalise my OXR holding at 50k shares if the price gets there.
People lose sight of the fact that 2 months ago OXR had not breached $1.50, and then jumped over 30% in a month.
Many can quit at $1.80 and still capitalise excellent returns.
I hope they do.
I think Ann's idea about OXR and uranium is "left field".  There are many holders of OXR that had no idea that OXR had ever defined a uranium resource.  Only those that knew what Minotaur had drilled into before OXR took a slice of their action would have had a clue.
With over a billions shares on issue, it will take a fair slice of folk to leave OXR for Toro to have a material impact.


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## Ann

I am sure you are right Rob, you are the mining expert.

However, I have Uranium threads going in a couple of other forums  with OXR on the Uranium lists. As well as that, on the same thread there is a Link which mentions OXR's interest in uranium through Prominent Hill. Back in August last year I put these lists up. On one big forum it is still there without being crushed under tons of other posts and the other forum the thread is being constantly refreshed by members who add to the information and discuss certain shares. They made a casual  mention of Uranium in one of the OX's annual reports. 

Any mention of Uranium by a reputable company is likely to make an impact on funds wanting to focus on the Uranium sector.

This is the link from my Uranium thread where Oxiana and Uranium is mentioned. Not a very obscure site for those interested in Uranium I shouldn't think.....
http://www.uic.com.au/pmine.htm

I found it and I don't even buy mining companies or have a particular interest in Uranium. 

I doubt it was as unknown as you may have thought but I am not an expert on the fundamentals of miners or mining so would have to accept your feelings about it.


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## nizar

remember that OXR owns 25% of TOR...

TOR may outperform in the short term after listing, but id say this would reflect in the sp of OXR, rather than OXR falling at the expense of TOR...


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## Ann

nizar said:
			
		

> remember that OXR owns 25% of TOR...
> 
> TOR may outperform in the short term after listing, but id say this would reflect in the sp of OXR, rather than OXR falling at the expense of TOR...




Certainly wouldn't argue with you about that Nizar. I feel ultimately it will be an excellent move by OXR to have a separate but close company for their Uranium interests.

Two halves being greater than one whole....... as it were.


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## laurie

TOE [ not TOR ] will have 100% in the near future I think the 25% stake held by OXR and 25% held by Minotaur is to allow their shareholders a piece of the cake and a bouble bonus for Oxiania and Minotaur sharesholders to get a Capital Return back from the sale which will be funded by TOE spp/capital raising by non-retail investors...just MHO  

cheers laurie


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## kariba

OXR is just such a great stock - forms the staple of my portfolio ATM. A good report on it's potential is at:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=2&id=3620

Certainly worth a read.

Regards


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## laurie

OXR sp moving up in anticipation of TOE IPO this friday   : 

cheers laurie


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## redandgreen

i think there might be another reason for OXR SP surge....how come MEP didn't go up today.
Copper prices has to be the explanation for OXR or the fabled takeover drawing near....


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## michael_selway

redandgreen said:
			
		

> i think there might be another reason for OXR SP surge....how come MEP didn't go up today.
> Copper prices has to be the explanation for OXR or the fabled takeover drawing near....




what is the "fabled takeover drawing near"

thx

MS


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## laurie

michael_selway said:
			
		

> what is the "fabled takeover drawing near"
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




*Xstrata.....*

cheers laurie


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## bvbfan

There was also a resource upgrade as well.

But copper testing highs and zinc hitting multi year highs which is now OXR biggest cash generator didn't hurt.

Still hope the t/o (takeover offer) doesn't eventuate until $4 or so


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## nizar

Look at that buy depth!

there's no way this things going below $2.29 today!

 BUYERS       SELLERS   
Orders Quantity Price   Price Quantity Orders 
15 235,963 2.300 1 2.310 132,149 9 
10 149,642 2.290 2 2.320 102,580 9 
5 106,292 2.280 3 2.330 83,050 7 
8 274,500 2.270 4 2.340 276,300 12


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## kevo

Great Stock! The analysts make me laugh with their 2007 Gold, Silver and Copper forecasts. All OXR surprises will be to the upside. Yesterday's breakout to new highs on massive volume says it all.

Oxiana Revise Net Mineral Resources
Total Oxiana Group Mineral Resources at year end, net of mining depletion, are estimated to contain an estimated 7.1 million ounces of gold, 72 million ounces of silver, 3.7 million tonnes of copper, and 0.9 million tonnes of zinc (0.5g/t Au, 0.5% Cu, 0.5% Zn cut-off). This represents an increase of 900,000 ounces of gold, 28 million ounces of silver, 700,000 tonnes of copper, and 900,000 tonnes of zinc over 2004 estimates. This is a substantial increase in the value of Oxiana’s Resource base. 
At Sepon a reduction in oxide gold Resources of 0.9Moz of gold was due to development of more tightly constrained Resource models and to depletion. Significant mineralisation with potential to become new deposits was discovered in 2005, however insufficient drilling had been undertaken by year end for them to be fully represented in this Resource Statement. It is expected that this new material will be converted to Resources in 2006. At Prominent Hill in South Australia, 1.0Moz of gold were added through additional drilling of the eastern gold only zone and the acquisition of Golden Grove in Western Australia contributed 0.6Moz. Overall, silver Resources rose through the acquisition of Golden Grove. An additional 1.0 million tonnes of contained copper was added to the copper Resource inventory made up of approximately 700,000 tonnes from the Thengkham discoveries at Sepon and 300,000 tonnes from Golden Grove. The acquisition of Golden Grove added 903,000 tonnes of zinc and 126,000 tonnes of lead to the Resource inventory in addition to the gold, copper and silver Resources above. 
The remodelling noted above, along with the redefinition of oxide-primary gold boundaries and incomplete Resource to Reserve conversion work, resulted in gold Reserves at Sepon being reduced to 0.4 million ounces net of mining depletion. Some of the potential new deposits identified in 2005 require further drilling before being available for conversion to Resources and then Reserves. 

These Reserves are currently derived from the oxide and partial oxide Resource base. Copper Ore Reserves at the Khanong deposit were updated following the completion of grade control and limited extension drilling programs and remain essentially unchanged net of depletion from 2004. 

Contained metal in Ore Reserves at Golden Grove increased to 453,000 tonnes of zinc, 128,000 tonnes of copper, 238,000 ounces of gold, 13 million ounces of silver and 56,000 tonnes of lead. An initial Ore Reserve for Prominent Hill is anticipated mid-2006. 2006 Resource and Reserve Program.At Sepon the gold focus will be on conversion of identified Resources to Reserves along with the ongoing program to outline Resources at new discoveries and quickly convert them to Reserves. It is expected that the primary gold Resources will be available for conversion to Reserves when feasibility studies have been completed. The copper focus will be on continuing to increase the Resource and Reserve base at Thengkham and Khanong as part of the copper expansion feasibility study. 

Further conversion of Golden Grove Resources to Reserves is expected in addition to further testing of Resource potential at depth and along strike. 

At Prominent Hill an updated Resource and an initial Reserve will be announced when available as part of the Bankable Feasibility Study. This Reserve optimisation work involves an extensive Group-wide drilling and evaluation program which is well underway at all sites. Further intensive exploration and Resource development drilling also continues across the Company’s highly prospective property portfolio 
with up to 25 drill rigs active. 

KEVO


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## nizar

nizar said:
			
		

> Look at that buy depth!
> 
> there's no way this things going below $2.29 today!
> 
> BUYERS       SELLERS
> Orders Quantity Price   Price Quantity Orders
> 15 235,963 2.300 1 2.310 132,149 9
> 10 149,642 2.290 2 2.320 102,580 9
> 5 106,292 2.280 3 2.330 83,050 7
> 8 274,500 2.270 4 2.340 276,300 12




OOps...

Oh well... Ive been wrong before   

Doesn't matter, when toro floats at 40-70c+, OXR will reach new highs


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## bvbfan

Toro will have little or no impact on OXR share price, unless it opens at some crazy price like $2 which isn't going to happen.


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## nizar

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Toro will have little or no impact on OXR share price, unless it opens at some crazy price like $2 which isn't going to happen.




why do u say this?

they hold 25% of toro...

that 25% on the offer price is worth $9million. If toro opens at say 70c, then their stake is worth $25million plus...

so their assets have grown, and this should be reflected in the share price...


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## bvbfan

Ok use your $25million value to OXR for TOE that is worth 25/1300
or about 2c which is less than 1% of current OXR share price

I don't believe thats of relevance to OXR when you'd get the same effect from couple of cent rise in Cu and Zn prices


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## laurie

The thing thou is the money left over from the TOE scale back could go to OXR by default with people thinking lets get in through the back door with OXR 24.1% stake then again I may well be wrong   
of course if *Xstrata* is sniffing around then that stake would add to OXR value and we all know they are after Uranium since missing out on WMC
cheers laurie


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## redandgreen

laurie said:
			
		

> The thing thou is the money left over from the TOE scale back could go to OXR by default with people thinking lets get in through the back door with OXR 24.1% stake then again I may well be wrong
> of course if *Xstrata* is sniffing around then that stake would add to OXR value and we all know they are after Uranium since missing out on WMC
> cheers laurie




tend to agree with you on this mate...


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## redandgreen

continuing to move up....Is it uranium  (via TOE)? Is it copper? Is it gold? Is it Xstata?


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## michael_selway

redandgreen said:
			
		

> continuing to move up....Is it uranium  (via TOE)? Is it copper? Is it gold? Is it Xstata?




dude base metal prices exploded yesterday

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS


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## redandgreen

I'm afraid the "explosion of  base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued,  comparative outperformance......


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## michael_selway

redandgreen said:
			
		

> I'm afraid the "explosion of  base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued,  comparative outperformance......




Hi what do u mean "comparative outperformance" in this context?

thx

MS


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## nizar

redandgreen said:
			
		

> I'm afraid the "explosion of  base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued,  comparative outperformance......




WHy not? Care to elaborate...

COpper/ZInc/Gold are the commodites in which OXR derives earnings, when  these go up, OXR can earn more money since they are unhedged.... and the sp goes up....


----------



## redandgreen

i happen to believe that there is a hype (speculative element ) in the SP that may well relate to OXR 24% interest in TOE. ( raised previously in this thread).


----------



## laurie

Have a look at the projected EPS!! it is way undervalued IMHO $3+  

cheers laurie


----------



## nizar

Yes Laurie i agree, 2mrw i think maybe time for a top-up   

If I wait for a pull-back, maybe ill be waiting a while...


----------



## Knobby22

The rise has been amazing. Even rose today on a down day.
The speed has been a bit scary. There has to be a consolidation phase soon.


----------



## michael_selway

laurie said:
			
		

> Have a look at the projected EPS!! it is way undervalued IMHO $3+
> 
> cheers laurie




Laurie, hold on a sec, where did u get your figures? Form Comsec

OXR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 21.9 16.4 13.1 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 3.0 

You can see 2007 onwards they forecast a fall in prices (copper presumably)

thx

MS


----------



## laurie

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Laurie, hold on a sec, where did u get your figures? Form Comsec




Maths worked out in my head from 2005 results 06-07 profits reported to be approx $480million if not more as full year from Golden Grove will have an impact on the final result then again I may well be totally wrong which does not change my out look of OXR almost made the $3 mark yesterday so I wasn't the only one thinking it was undervalued   

cheers laurie


----------



## bvbfan

2007 the will be a large expense for the construction of Prominent Hill that will effect the earnings for 2007 possibly 2008, then the production should add to earnings in 2009
If the copper and gold prices stay at the forecast levels which I think a majority of analysts are using around $1.80 certainly under $2/lb


----------



## laurie

bvbfan said:
			
		

> 2007 the will be a large expense for the construction of Prominent Hill that will effect the earnings for 2007 possibly 2008




That depends where the money comes from!!   

cheers laurie


----------



## redandgreen

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2,   revised price target $3
loooking good........


----------



## bvbfan

Prominent Hill will be debt funded as far as I know, but with the high prices for Zn and Copper they may not need that much debt.

I think costs were about $550million US but that may increase with cost increases in raw materials


Earnings this year for OXR could be close to $500million AUD and similar for 2007 if commodities prices stay at these levels or rise


----------



## nizar

I had a look at my mates Broker report from Citigroup...

OXR 2006e and 2007e have been increased by 44.1% and 70.0% respectively due to recent commodity price movements and currency fluctuations   

(Sorry cant post link it was hard copy)


----------



## HELLAS09

OXR is a very sore spot for me.

I bought the stock not even 2 years ago at 99 cents and sold out at 85 cents...YES at a loss...my biggest mistake I rushed out as I needed the $$ for my wedding, but I still had like 4 months to hold off but thought 'hey minimise my losses'...I went against ALL advice to 'HOLD' as they'll take off soon GRRR.

Now look at them  Sorry had to add my biatch in here.


----------



## laurie

HELLAS09
Don't be harsh on yourself you must have got on at near the same time as I did .92c you have to learn to be PATIENCE I found out the hard way also

cheers laurie


----------



## michael_selway

nizar said:
			
		

> I had a look at my mates Broker report from Citigroup...
> 
> OXR 2006e and 2007e have been increased by 44.1% and 70.0% respectively due to recent commodity price movements and currency fluctuations
> 
> (Sorry cant post link it was hard copy)




Hehe, can you please just post their forecast 2006, 2007, 2008 EPS 

thx

MS


----------



## kevo

It's been upgraded again by Macquarie. 
http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/04/macquarie_are_we_being_too_con_1.html
www.kontentkonsult.com

It will be $5.00 bucks before you know it..


----------



## Knobby22

I am just stunned as to the continuing copper price rise.

I always thought Oxiana was a good company but it is truly exceeding my expectations.

The cashflow is such that they can continue developing their other fields.


----------



## rederob

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> I am just stunned as to the continuing copper price rise.



Me too, and I have been following/studying this very closely for a few years now.
There is a chance that zinc will catch up to copper by 2008 due to its price inelasticity.
I might have to go overweight in my already overweight commodity exposure to add more KZL.
I learned that their hedge exposure to copper and lead will have largely unwound by mid year, giving them spot prices for most of the next financial year.
KZL do not hedge zinc and presently have a margin in excess of a dollar per pound: that's 23,000 tonnes for this half year multiplied by 2,200 pounds multiplied by a dollar or so - compelling maths!
By way of comparison, in the 6months to December KZL produced about half the quantity of zinc anticipated this half, and received only 64cents per pound.  Present zinc spot price is $1.38/lb and rising!


----------



## michael_selway

kevo said:
			
		

> It's been upgraded again by Macquarie.
> http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/04/macquarie_are_we_being_too_con_1.html
> www.kontentkonsult.com
> 
> It will be $5.00 bucks before you know it..




Thanks mate, very interesting



> The most significant change (given its importance to both the base metals complex and equities) is the ~50% increase to MRE's copper price forecasts for 2007 and 2008, which now exceeds US$2.00/lb until end 2008. Those issues have had a substantial impact on MRE's production forecasts, have raised the forecast concentrates deficit, and have now swung their refined market balance forecast from surplus to deficit in 2006. With stocks already extremely low, this deficit is enough to make MRE question whether there is any justification to forecast a significant pull-back in prices this year, and MRE's conclusion is that there is not. As a result, MRE have revised up their forecast average copper price for 2006 from $2.20/lb ($4850/t) to $2.54/lb ($5590/t).
> 
> MRE continue to expect virtually all of the LME zinc stocks to be run down by the end of the year, and the zinc market to be displaying all the signs of a shortage market – including prices moving to record highs. Copper is an interesting case study for those looking at possible price outcomes for zinc – in copper, prices have gone higher than we would ever have imagined – simply because there has just not been enough to go around. In zinc it is difficult to say just how high prices could go in a real shortage situation. MRE do not believe there will be significant price-related substitution out of zinc in the galvanised steel market.


----------



## laurie

Oxiana is IMHO in "No Mans Land" it's surley must be eyed by Xstrata and the quicker it can get to $5+ the better it is able to fend off being a target! right now it has to be a steal at the present price to it's future EPS if it reaches $5 then Xstrata would have to fork out close to $6.5-----> $7

cheers laurie


----------



## nizar

rederob said:
			
		

> Me too, and I have been following/studying this very closely for a few years now.
> There is a chance that zinc will catch up to copper by 2008 due to its price inelasticity.
> I might have to go overweight in my already overweight commodity exposure to add more KZL.
> I learned that their hedge exposure to copper and lead will have largely unwound by mid year, giving them spot prices for most of the next financial year.
> KZL do not hedge zinc and presently have a margin in excess of a dollar per pound: that's 23,000 tonnes for this half year multiplied by 2,200 pounds multiplied by a dollar or so - compelling maths!
> By way of comparison, in the 6months to December KZL produced about half the quantity of zinc anticipated this half, and received only 64cents per pound.  Present zinc spot price is $1.38/lb and rising!




Yes rederob, it is compelling..

I dont know how people could afford not to hold KZL and OXR..

In the latest half-yearly, KZL reported that costs per pound for zinc were 32c and average sale price received was 64c generating margins of 32c/lb... Currently zinc spot price 1.38, so their margins would have EXPLODED.. more than tripled... costs are set to remain at 30-35c/lb...

And dont forget copper, not that much at 4000tonnes for this year, but thats net revenue of 13million, considering costs of $1/lb, and spot price of $2.50...

Unhedged producers are the way to go, and KZL and OXR are my picks... have been holding KZL since beginning of the year, have topped up last week and will top up again...

People say copper will be in oversupply in 2007-2008... but for KZL in 2007, copper production will be 25000tonnes and then 35000tonnes in 2008, so the fall in spot prices will be MORE THAN OFFSET by increased production..

KZL will get re-rated, the last eps estimate was done after their last quarterly, when zinc spot prices were 95c/lb and consensus eps is 42.2cps... this will be increased to 50cps+ IMO...

Ok sorry guys wrong thread, so onto OXR...

This is the next big mining house on asx IMO... when they get Prominent Hill going in 2008, Prominent Hill to add 90-100,000 tonnes of Cu, 110-130,000 tonnes of Zn and 420,000 oz of gold, and then Sepon upgrades in 2009 to double copper output plus all their exploration upside and potential to increase their resource, in the next 2-3 years i can see this being a $10billion company... unhedged... just sit back and enjoy the ride...


----------



## rederob

laurie said:
			
		

> Oxiana is IMHO in "No Mans Land" it's surley must be eyed by Xstrata and the quicker it can get to $5+ the better it is able to fend off being a target! right now it has to be a steal at the present price to it's future EPS if it reaches $5 then Xstrata would have to fork out close to $6.5-----> $7



Laurie
Bring up a chart of Tethyan (TYC) to see what a takeover would do.
Entirely possbile that OXR would immediately move over $5 on any formal offer.
However, OXR's numbers are so good they would show shareholders that a stock price of $6 by 2008 is possible.
Tethyan is still a bare resource project whereas Oxiana is already a cash cow.
If the similarites matched then OXR would sell out to Xstrata for around 2.5x present price.


----------



## MalteseBull

This stock is going nuts now, been watching it in the last 10-20 mins, extremly heavy buying


----------



## nizar

$3.38 on the close up 10% on 34million volume


----------



## michael_selway

nizar said:
			
		

> $3.38 on the close up 10% on 34million volume




Hi i cant believe it!

cant believe how much ZInc it produced in the last quarter

Do knwo what teh zinc production for the next quarter/yrs is for ZFX?

Also copper/gold/silver cause I dont knwo why they are forecasting a big decrease in EPS in the future?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 21.8 15.3 13.4 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 3.0 


thx

MS


----------



## rederob

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Also copper/gold/silver cause I dont knwo why they are forecasting a big decrease in EPS in the future?



MS
The forecasts are based on present production rates and a decline in metal prices going forward.
The forecasters will be badly wrong, as they have been for several years.
Metal prices will be higher still at year end, and zinc is likely to run higher throughout 2007, with gold and silver rising dramatically as well.
There is every chance OXR will significantly raise its next dividend - I expect 5 cents minimum.
OXR upside yet to be realised.............. watch this space.


----------



## nizar

rederob said:
			
		

> MS
> The forecasts are based on present production rates and a decline in metal prices going forward.
> The forecasters will be badly wrong, as they have been for several years.
> Metal prices will be higher still at year end, and zinc is likely to run higher throughout 2007, with gold and silver rising dramatically as well.
> There is every chance OXR will significantly raise its next dividend - I expect 5 cents minimum.
> OXR upside yet to be realised.............. watch this space.




Agree

FOr 2007 and 2008 and beyond, analysts/brokers use 55c/lb zinc and 70c/lb copper in calculation

Higher metal prices will allow them to increase their resource so fatter margins and increased production


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

In 6 months this beasts mkt cap has gone from $1.5billion to *$4.5billion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!     * 


Its not the same when say TZN goes from 60c to $1.20 as its mkt cap went from $45m to $90m,

*No we're talking about an addition of $3billion dollars in 6 months   * 

Good luck to all those brave enough to ride


----------



## nizar

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> In 6 months this beasts mkt cap has gone from $1.5billion to *$4.5billion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!     *
> 
> 
> Its not the same when say TZN goes from 60c to $1.20 as its mkt cap went from $45m to $90m,
> 
> *No we're talking about an addition of $3billion dollars in 6 months   *
> 
> Good luck to all those brave enough to ride




bro OXIANA is earnings heaps of money

look at the latest report..

its NPAT for FY2006 is forecast at $446million, thats eps of 30cps, its not overvalued at all at 10x earnings if thats what u are implying...

Just because a share price has gone up so much doesnt mean it cant go higher...


----------



## rederob

nizar said:
			
		

> its NPAT for FY2006 is forecast at $446million, thats eps of 30cps, its not overvalued at all at 10x earnings if thats what u are implying...



nizar
I have not had time to run over the numbers in detail, so I just looked at Comsec - one broker recommends the Ox as a "sell" (wish I could find out who).  My view is that the analysts forecasts at Comsec for the next year are not even on the page. I am forecasting OXR's eps for the next financial year at over 80cps conservatively.
Moreover, I think the numbers for OXR's present quarter will again stun the market to "accumulate".
We seem to agree that present price action does not even factor in Prominent Hill.  But that name will creep into more and more broker reports next year, and we really will be looking at a minimum price for the Ox of $7 by end 2007.
While the Ox is only a bit over 10% of BHP's present price, by 2010 I foreacast it to be no less than 40% and possibly higher depending on gold's upside.


----------



## kariba

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> In 6 months this beasts mkt cap has gone from $1.5billion to *$4.5billion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!     *
> Its not the same when say TZN goes from 60c to $1.20 as its mkt cap went from $45m to $90m,
> 
> *No we're talking about an addition of $3billion dollars in 6 months   *
> *Good luck to all those brave enough to ride*




Young Trader

The same was being said about the PDN @ $1.50, & $2.00, $3.00, $5.00 ...AND they havent even made 1 cent yet! At one point recently both OXR & PDN had the SAME MC ....I am a fan & owner of PDN shares ...But what a joke! OXR is a cash cow & has been MASSIVELY underpriced - It is only now coming to near where it should have been .... not even including PH & other factors etc.

No mate we are nowhere near yet!!!

cheers


----------



## bvbfan

OXR

Gold 600 - 450        = 150 x 180,000
            = 27,000,000

Copper 2.75 - 0.85    = 1.90 x 60000 x 2205
            = 251,370,000

Zinc 1.25 - 0.30    = 0.95 x 150000 x 2205
            = 314,212,500


            = 592,582,500

costs of production and depreciation included in the costs of individual metals

other costs
admin            10,000,000
misc             5,000,000
finance costs        40,000,000
exploration        25,000,000
income tax            100,000,000

total costs           180,000,000


estimated profit = 412,582,500


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

OXR certainly is a cash cow,

Wasn't saying that it was over valued or undervalued, was just commenting on how quickly its huge market cap trebled!

Come on a $1.5Billlion dollar stock to treble is impressive isn't it?


----------



## laurie

Has everyone forgotten OXR 24.7% of TOE!   

cheers laurie


----------



## rederob

bvbfan
Simple maths - nice bottom line.
And the prices you used for the metals have already been surpassed, so your bottom line is conservative.
As I have said a few times, these numbers exclude any exploration success, and known upside that will come from opening up Prominent Hill.
Unfortunately my exposure to OXR (at 20%) is a bit over my trading rules, or I would be adding on today's dip.


----------



## clowboy

Im wondering if there will be any dip left on monday with the way zinc and other comodites (ex gold/silver) have bounced back in the last few hours


----------



## michael_selway

clowboy said:
			
		

> Im wondering if there will be any dip left on monday with the way zinc and other comodites (ex gold/silver) have bounced back in the last few hours




Actually todays Dip was mainly due to Silver which dropped 20%, from 14 to 12 in 1 day







thx

MS


----------



## nizar

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Actually todays Dip was mainly due to Silver which dropped 20%, from 14 to 12 in 1 day
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




U reckon?

silver contributes very little to OXR's bottom line, i think it was due to the fall in gold/copper/zinc and it was due to some profit taking.. i mean, last week it closed at 2.75, thats alot of movement for a top100 company...


----------



## clowboy

All things being equal,

Silver and gold made reasonably recoveries over night.

Zinc and Copper went to new records, so as per my statement I think I may have missed the boat trying to by on any "DIP"


----------



## rederob

clowboy said:
			
		

> I think I may have missed the boat trying to by on any "DIP"



Me too!
I was hoping for a "blow off", but zinc, copper and nickel did a "Monica" overnight and intensified.
In relation to OXR, I do not believe that the market has yet priced in the company's excellent numbers that were reported on Thursday.
Add last night's price action on metals and we are looking at $3.50 in no time and $4 early into the next half.
Elsewhere a poster mentioned PDN as a stock that had doubled, and doubled again, yet had not earned a single cent: It remains a triumph of euphoria over reality - a testimony to our yearning for future profits despite having "realised" money in front of us if only we cared to look.


----------



## bvbfan

bvbfan said:
			
		

> estimated profit = 412,582,500




Just checking the calculations and the numbers were based on USD and not converted to AUD

So with current rates around 75 that would be about $550 million AUD

Only the 2nd time I've shorted OXR in 5 years and looks like I'll be hurting monday, good thing it was only a partial hedge on my large long position


----------



## nizar

did anybody notice how much sepon gold costs have increased.... in the UK roadshow presentation, half yearly results till dec31 showed sepon gold costs to be US$201

in the latest 1Q2006 production figures, costs at sepon were US$350/oz...

did any1 here go to agm and pose this question to OH or any thoughts on this?

Thats 80% increase in costs and it really hurt (the extent) of their profitability for last quarter...


----------



## michael_selway

*Right place, right time for miner
Date : 12/02/2006
Reporter: Luisa Saccotelli*

LUISA SACCOTELLI: When it comes to gold digging, there are few Australian mining outfits which have grown as fast as Oxiana. The company alchemy is a mix of right place, right time but also boss Owen Hegarty's preparedness to go where others haven't - in his case, a remote Communist controlled valley without roads or access to reliable communication to the outside world.

OWEN HEGARTY: I have been in this fortunate position of being in charge of a company that has grown very substantially from a few million dollars up to a small number of billions, I suppose. People talk about going from about 10 cents to $2 so that is a 20 bagger in the last three or four years.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Owen Hegarty was a 20-year career mining man with Rio Tinto up until the late 1990s when the company passed up on gold and copper deposits in Laos. Judged too small, that wasn't the only problem.

OWEN HEGARTY: You had Asia falling over, you had copper gold prices falling over and the world was going into recession. Investment dollars were very hard to come by. Here we were it was a somewhat isolated area, very little infrastructure, a monsoonal climate. There was no mining industry. The first question about Laos was, where is it? And then, of course, who is in charge up there?

LUISA SACCOTELLI: The answer to the reluctant money men was the Communists in a government of former freedom fighters.

OWEN HEGARTY: The leaders of the present government, some of those people were the cave-dwelling freedom fighters nationalists who saw off the Americans and others during the second Indo-China conflict. So that has been their heritage.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: None of the country risk issues deterred Hegarty.

OWEN HEGARTY: The Sepon project is amazing in that whole mineral field is something I have never seen before in my life. A combination of copper and gold at the surface, very high grade, oodles of upside and one of the things I suppose that we did was ensure that we had a consistent story, consistent people and meet up with all the district chiefs and so on, understand their position, respect the fact that it's their property, it's their valley, it's their livelihoods that you are changing forever.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Hegarty credits that approach with earning Oxiana its social licence to work in the valley. But first came the hunt for $20 million to buy a 80 per cent stake in the mine.

OWEN HEGARTY: Wearing out shoe leather, running around looking to put money together up and down Collins Street here and across in London and in New York and various other places. You pack your bag, you put your presentation away and move on to the next one. That is I say to people as we left the building, there was not a lot of difference between being shown out and left out.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Two years later with gold and copper coming out of the ground, Oxiana bought out the rest of the deposits for $US80 million.

OWEN HEGARTY: Plenty of people told us we would never be able to raise the money to build the Sepon under any circumstances and, not only that, to finance these operations, these mines, you are going to have to hedge your copper or hedge your gold. We are anti-hedgers. We believe we have had that gene removed from our DNA. We think we have seen too many companies go broke, go belly up by hedging. We think it's far too complicated for us anyway. We like to keep it nice and simple.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Gold is now at its highest price in 25 years. Oxiana has been lucky. As commodities have boomed so have its market appeal. Full-year earnings are tipped to hit 75 million, up from a loss of 2 million the year before. Oxiana is trading on a price to earnings ratio of eight. There is also a second mine, Western Australia's Golden Grove, with a third still in feasibility, South Australia's Prominent Hill. The idea is to fill the mid-cap market gap. It is all going Oxiana's way now but it could all unravel.

OWEN HEGARTY: As soon as commodity prices pop up you find there are plenty of analysts out there looking for them to pop down very soon. So there is a few of them out there crying wolf. But our strategy is to be in low cost, high yield, high margin operations.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: But perhaps a bigger threat is another symptom of the current gold fever - a rash of hostile takeovers has broken out and the big and inquisitive miner Xstrata is said to be scratching around. With a healthy personal stake in Oxiana worth upwards of $50 million, Hegarty would walk away wealthy either way but he has invested a lot of emotional capital as well.

OWEN HEGARTY: Of course we have our defences there, but the best defensive against takeover is optimising your share price.

ALAN KOHLER: Luisa Saccotelli reporting. 

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1567944.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200602/r72167_201099.asx


----------



## MalteseBull

as if the OX isn't the best buy of the year... huge potential


----------



## nizar

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> as if the OX isn't the best buy of the year... huge potential




Agree....  

Oxiana is the must have share for 2006


----------



## GreatPig

I won't disagree.

Up 8.3% since buying in a couple of days ago, and I bought my maximum-size parcel (ie. what I've set as a maximum as part of my system).

Looking good at this moment 

GP


----------



## Fung

Raise up to $3.5 now... Is it a good price to BUY still?


----------



## redandgreen

What's too expensive for a stellar stock like this, however I would wait for a pull-back!
PS my opinion only of course...


----------



## porkpie324

who can guess where oxr is going, we're in uncharted terrotory now, all i know is that i'm still holding, was some resistance just under 3.00 but broke thru on well above average volume,but right now more than happy to hold.porkpie


----------



## laurie

TOE may drag it down a bit!

cheers laurie


----------



## rederob

laurie said:
			
		

> TOE may drag it down a bit!
> 
> cheers laurie



Over a billion shares on issue.
TOE can cut either way - medium term down, and longer term up.

I think copper, zinc, silver and gold (not in that order) prices will move the stock as most holders have factored in TOE and will just let it ride.

Copper prices are likely to suffer a major correction in the week as its price is over-inflated via thin trade in a highly speculatively driven market.
As they say, keep some powder dry for the dips.  Only the very brave or very foolish would rush OXR at the moment.

disclosure - I hold a fair few OXR but nil TOE


----------



## Caliente

ah i meant  to post this earlier today. Oxiana was a great buy this morning -> DRP discount news. Seems to be about the only thing holding the "Ox" back.

Disclosure> I hold.


----------



## rederob

Caliente said:
			
		

> ah i meant  to post this earlier today. Oxiana was a great buy this morning -> DRP discount news. Seems to be about the only thing holding the "Ox" back.



Caliente
Am looking at Kitcometals right now and it seems that copper is up around 4% so far, with other base metals shaking off yesterday's loss.
Maybe those that wanted the Ox also wanted a real bargain: Don't look like it's on the horizon.


----------



## nizar

copper up by 15% now and zinc by 3% and gold marginally...

this rebound will be sweet

good thing i topped by OXR and KZL today... im a bit worried about what interest rate rise on tuesday (if it happens) would do to the market though in the short term....


----------



## michael_selway

nizar said:
			
		

> copper up by 15% now and zinc by 3% and gold marginally...
> 
> this rebound will be sweet
> 
> good thing i topped by OXR and KZL today... im a bit worried about what interest rate rise on tuesday (if it happens) would do to the market though in the short term....




yeah, btw has kitco mean fixed yet?

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS


----------



## nizar

michael_selway said:
			
		

> yeah, btw has kitco mean fixed yet?
> 
> http://www.kitcometals.com/
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




yeh im on there now, copper up 16% and zinc 3.6%...

it seems to be working fine

actually i just saw this msg:

IMPORTANT:
Due to technical difficulties pricing being received is incorrect. We are currently working on the issue and anticipate resolution shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience. 

so maybe not..


----------



## Caliente

cant wait for the Ox to rush out the gate tommorow hehehehe!!!


----------



## clowboy

anyone know if the "technical dificulties" have been ironed out from kitco yet?


----------



## nizar

Caliente said:
			
		

> cant wait for the Ox to rush out the gate tommorow hehehehe!!!




Same

My guess is that it will open close to 3.60


----------



## MalteseBull

needs to crack 3.60 barrier


----------



## MalteseBull

Don't know why there is a high volume selling... the best is yet to come


----------



## laurie

Maybe profit taking as we get closer to the end of finanical year   

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab

Laurie,

Why do you think the best is yet to come ?

Cheers


----------



## mlennox

Fab said:
			
		

> Laurie,
> 
> Why do you think the best is yet to come ?
> 
> Cheers




gold gold gold gold gold gold gold... and gold


----------



## nizar

Fab said:
			
		

> Laurie,
> 
> Why do you think the best is yet to come ?
> 
> Cheers




zinc will be in supply deficit this year sending the zinc spot price through the roof i think $2+ by october

gold, zinc and copper tipped to remain strong throughout 2006

Prominent Hill is a mini-olympic dam and will more than double current production figures of gold and copper and is coming online in 2008

Sepon Copper output is due to double by 2009

OXR market cap by 2008-9: $10billion+ IMO


----------



## MalteseBull

GOLD UP $15 to US$668!

this should add some fuel to oxiana's price today

patience to virtue


----------



## mlennox

up 2% already  when did u enter maltese ? (i entered on 27/03/06 @ 2.44)


----------



## coyotte

mlennox said:
			
		

> gold gold gold gold gold gold gold... and gold




could be a lot more pushing the OX than POG

could be something to do with Managment !

as both  the Saint and the Sons showed us last year ---- the assests can be worthless if managment are just  a mob of " dwarfs " 


Cheers
 Coyotte


----------



## mlennox

coyotte said:
			
		

> managment are just  a mob of " dwarfs "




find me a company without a management like this... its the people at the bottom of these mines making these companys money not there management.


----------



## coyotte

mlennox

debatable !!
do not both rely on each other ?


but i would not have thought SBM would be as high as it now without a change
of top management last year (even though it had aquired the Sons assets @ bagain prices )


Cheers
Coyotte


----------



## laurie

Fab said:
			
		

> Laurie,
> 
> Why do you think the best is yet to come ?
> 
> Cheers




Full year production figures of Golden Grove will be massive in Oct! just look at what's happening to SILVER prices this company cannot put a foot wrong

cheers laurie


----------



## MalteseBull

mlennox said:
			
		

> up 2% already  when did u enter maltese ? (i entered on 27/03/06 @ 2.44)




entered about 3.30, plan on holding this baby long term though, should see it at $5 one day,


----------



## mlennox

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> entered about 3.30, plan on holding this baby long term though, should see it at $5 one day,




i think i saw an option taken out by the board for 4.85 expiring 2011...

anyone know how this should be viewed?


----------



## mlennox

coyotte said:
			
		

> mlennox
> 
> debatable !!
> do not both rely on each other ?




oh definately but then why do the managers get paid more ? because they work harder ( i think not )


----------



## MalteseBull

Gold will hit $700 very soon! by next week i rekon!

so OXR and other goldies are worth while, so stock up!


----------



## nizar

If u want a stock that moves better with increasing gold price, try LHG


----------



## nizar

bvbfan said:
			
		

> OXR
> 
> Gold 600 - 450        = 150 x 180,000
> = 27,000,000
> 
> Copper 2.75 - 0.85    = 1.90 x 60000 x 2205
> = 251,370,000
> 
> Zinc 1.25 - 0.30    = 0.95 x 150000 x 2205
> = 314,212,500
> 
> 
> = 592,582,500
> 
> costs of production and depreciation included in the costs of individual metals
> 
> other costs
> admin            10,000,000
> misc             5,000,000
> finance costs        40,000,000
> exploration        25,000,000
> income tax            100,000,000
> 
> total costs           180,000,000
> 
> 
> estimated profit = 412,582,500




what do u mean by finance costs?

u mean like paying back any interest on loans?

and also, how much do we have to put aside for wages when making these kind of calculations: surely this must be at least 30-40mil, OXR must employ hundreds of people....


----------



## bvbfan

finance costs, yes interest and for payback of some principle

as for employee expenses, the majority of workers are in the mines and that would be included in the costs of the production
Office costs would be for the corporate office employees

Again these numbers aren't meant to be concrete, but assuming I've got most of the costs addressed then you can gauge the earnings from the levels used for the metals.
If costs are underestimated (from my estimates) obviously they won't earn as much

BTW, all those figures are in USD so I think I have overestimated some of the costs


----------



## MalteseBull

should see it close to $4 today


----------



## ctp6360

Wow that's optimistic but gee I hope you're right.

I opened 5 positions yesterday and they're all up 1-5% today, man it feels good to be right! Ha ha ha, I've jinxed myself


----------



## MalteseBull

well the rate gold is going we'll see the ox reach $4 
a matter of time


----------



## rederob

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> well the rate gold is going we'll see the ox reach $4
> a matter of time



MalteseBull
You will be right very soon - before end-May in any event.
Every commodity mined by the Ox is going thru the roof.
Mine closures in Chile will exacerbate both copper and zinc supplies, so look for another few percent price gains tonight.
Commodity gloom merchants are simply relying on "new" money to take profits.
Instead, smarter money is buying into the dips and ratcheting prices ever higher.
If the media morose cared to read the fundamentals (can they read!), they would have put their homes on the line, instead.
It's a shame the Ox is not producing nickel - it's jumped massively as well to sit near $21,000 tonight.


----------



## nizar

Copper price hits record high above 8,000 usd/tonne as Grupo Mexico closes mine

LONDON (AFX) - The price of copper smashed through 8,000 usd per tonne for the first time following the closure of a mine in key producer Mexico. 

In morning trade on the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper prices reached 8,010 usd per tonne -- the highest point since the metal was first listed in 1877. 

The price of copper, used for electrical wiring and plumbing, has been boosted in recent months by supply problems, limited output and soaring demand from the booming economies of China and India. 

Mining company Grupo Mexico said this morning it is closing its zinc and copper mine in San Martin, the country's largest, after the government refused to intervene to end a strike that has affected the site since March. 

Zinc, which is chiefly used to galvanise iron and steel, also hit a new record of 3,525 usd per tonne. 

Strike action has also hit another of the company's copper mines in Le Caridad, while mining production is declining in Chile, the world's largest producer of the commodity. 

The group Antofagasta forecast this week that its Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile will produce 319,000 tonnes of copper this year, 4.4 pct less than in 2005.  

http://www.afxpress.com/about488/index.php?lg=en&c=00.00&story=1470680


----------



## Lucstar

Anyone know what led to the dip in OXR today?


----------



## ctp6360

Lucstar, *everything* dipped today, virtually, I don't think the drop is indicative of OXR its indicative of the market as a whole, I have a feeling it will bounce back tomorrow, if not on Wednesday.

Don't panic!


----------



## rederob

Lucstar said:
			
		

> Anyone know what led to the dip in OXR today?



"Dip".... how about the wheels fall off.
Need the gap filled under $3.20 to get me excited enough to buy any more.
Can't see that happening any time soon as gold prices rallied slightly today.


----------



## Lucstar

I hope ur right ctp,
cause i ceased the good opportunity today and bought in @ $3.56
Hopefully it will be a good trade hey.
Fingers crossed


----------



## rederob

Lucstar said:
			
		

> I hope ur right ctp,
> cause i ceased the good opportunity today and bought in @ $3.56
> Hopefully it will be a good trade hey.
> Fingers crossed



Nup
The wheels are falling off at the moment - gold down 3% in half an hour or less and commodity prices are collapsing faster than a Zimbabwe cricket team..
Good news for you, Lucstar, is that prices have bounced ever so slightly in past few minutes, but US market has yet to enter the fray.
C'mon the bears!


----------



## ctp6360

rederrob, what site do you use to track gold prices?


----------



## professor_frink

this one has gold and lots of other stuff on it

http://www.barronscommodity.com/private/index.asp


----------



## LPA

So the price is now down around $3.20, which is basically what I paid for it to begin with...What's happening here, gold and copper haven't dropped THAT much - I just don't really get it.

I feel that 3.20 is a pretty stable point for this company at the moment.  Anybody think we will see it back at 3.75 anytime this month?  If so I may just have to buy some more 

LPA


----------



## LPA

$3.16 - time to buy some more?  Any opinions?


----------



## rederob

LPA said:
			
		

> So the price is now down around $3.20, which is basically what I paid for it to begin with...What's happening here, gold and copper haven't dropped THAT much - I just don't really get it.
> 
> I feel that 3.20 is a pretty stable point for this company at the moment.  Anybody think we will see it back at 3.75 anytime this month?  If so I may just have to buy some more
> 
> LPA



LPA
Bid at $3.15 or lower.
If the price comes in, it is likely to finish higher at market close.
OXR might not climb back to $3.75 in a few weeks, but it could be $4 in 6 weeks.
There are few commentators that call this other than a "correction", so if you have a decent time frame to trade/invest, you should do handsomely.
I guarantee it with all my luck!


----------



## LPA

Thanks for the vote of confidence   I originally bought in at $3.13 so I decided to top up at $3.14.  I can't see it dropping below $3 before this thing is over and it starts slowly gaining ground again 

*edit* just made my buy at $3.14.  Is anybody else buying, or am I acting to quickly?


----------



## LPA

well we're looking at $3.10 now....might have jumped the gun a little bit, but as long as it goes up from here I'm happy 

That's one hell of a drop though just because of a slight correction...hope it doesn't last!


----------



## ctp6360

I'm no expert by any means, but Gold seems to be doing better overseas at the moment and I think this drop in OXR has been affected by the recent gold drops, so hopefully this will do something to help OXR recover, I am suprised by the severity of the drop too, especially given how well OXR was going without too much volatility.


----------



## Sean K

It's had an incredible run ctp. Time for a rest.

It's hard to put a price an any of the gold miners at the moment and know what good value is. Sure you can pluck an eps via their hedging positions and 'average' spot price for the year, but what the hell is that going to be? 

And analysts are plucking anything from $450 to $2000 gold next year.

Best guesses really. It could be worth anything between $1 and $5 right now!

Long term, it's a winner.


----------



## LPA

I agree completely that long term this is a winner - and now might be a good time to buy some more, which I did   

But Oxiana doesn't hedge their gold at all, it's part of their business strategy.  Is this a good or a bad thing in this type of market?  Maybe that's why it is seeing such a huge drop?

My crystal ball is telling me (which is basically the best bet at the moment   ) that people are overreacting/profit taking big time and that by this time two months from now we will be laughing.....that's my completely uneducated opinion!


----------



## tech/a

To early to pick bargains in this sector at the moment.
Things will flatten before resuming.
Unlikely to V bottom.
Easy your way into positions on up ticks.
Wait for lows to be tested and new immediate term lows to start rising.

Anyway Thats my veiw.


----------



## LPA

*sigh* $3.08

Can someone help a newbie out here   Is this going to stabalise and return to normal slowly after all the craziness?  Or is it just going to sit around $3 for the next few months until they announce that they are going to mine at Prominent Hill? (which should be happening in August according to their website).

I'm still scratching my head over this stock...

Tech-a thanks for the advice, I was watching it and figured that $3.15 was pretty stable and hope it still is by the end of the trading day.  I guess the real test comes over the rest of the week.  The dumping of stocks in general seems to have ended today for everything but mining stocks....whether or not they will slow down today/tomorrow remains to be seen.

Oh well, I'm learning alot I'll tell you that now!


----------



## Sean K

Will probably follow the gold price LPA. 

So, my bet is correction/consolidation for a week or month, and then it's on it's way back up over the next few months to 2 years. This would be the consevative view in this forum. Some will say it could rocket again tomorrow.....


----------



## Sean K

Or......

1542  [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) down 13% at A$3.07, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) down 10% at A$11.13. Dealer tips further 10% fall in both stocks near term. "The problem is everyone's bottom fishing in Oxiana (OXR.AU) and Zinifex (ZFX.AU), but even if metal prices are up tomorrow, who's going to be the marginal buyer?" Tips Oxiana fall to A$2.80, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) to A$10.00 tomorrow. (DWR)


----------



## tech/a

Dont guess the market.

Trade with it and give it time to develope.
*Patience can be very profitable.*


----------



## Fab

I believe this correction we are seeing is very healthy for the resources stocks it went a bit too high too fast for my liking. If you are there for the mid to long term there is no worry to have the upward trend will resume. May is often a volatile month anyway I believe June will be too.
Not a bad time to pick up some bargain so, I believe it will go further down.


----------



## clowboy

Looks like the carnage is just beggining.

Sigh,

Day's like today I would rather forget but alas this is wehn we learn the most.


----------



## LPA

Honestly, I don't see why the carnage should continue...But I agree completely with the learning statement   I've learnt alot in the past few days - the number one thing being DON'T LISTEN TO ANYBODY.......everyone will be wrong, until they are right and then jump up and down telling you 'told you so!'.  

I bought at $3.13 based on my own research and the spike in price (caught it midway).  

I should of sold at $3.75 when everyone was saying it would pop $4.00 in a week or two.

I listened when people said it was just a small correction and held on when I saw it reach $3.55.

Today it started at about $3.20, and I bought at $3.14 because nobody seemed to think it would drop much further than that (plus it was what I paid for it originally basically so I was happy to add to my stocks).

Now people are saying $2.80?  over a 30% drop in three days? based on nothing but speculation that the metal rush is over......ouch.  So if I listen to these people I should sell now and buy again tomorrow (well, too late to do it NOW).  I just know that if I did that they would open at like $3.35 and I would lose out again.

Basically the stock that I chose a month ago and thought was doing great has just become one of the biggest losers (probably THE biggest) of this 'consolidation' period.  Trying to keep my head together is hard I must say, particularly as a new low-level player.  But I'm going to hold onto my stocks now.....OXR all the way!  I'm just waiting for an August announcement from them, that should get the fires burning again...

oh, and one final..............*SIGH*   stupid stock market   :


----------



## clowboy

LPA,  I can barley get my head around the carnage starting yet alone see why it would continue - that is what makes me think it may.  Comodity prices haven't even droped that much (compared to where they where a month or two ago) and yet here we all are bleeding.  As for the biggest loser - I doubt it.  KLZ lost far more than OXR today (% terms) and im sure there are many more out there.

Nothing like losing a months worth of gains in two days


----------



## crayfish

In mid April OXR went though $3, WHEN

Cu was $3/lb AND
Au was $610-620/oz

Both commodities are still way above these levels despite the drop in commodity prices this week, yet OXR has gone down towards that $3 mark of a month ago (well closed at $3.08). Does this equal panic selling?

While Cu and Zn prices stay near record highs OXR will make a filthy amount of money. In fact Cu would have to go beneath $2 for OXR not to make a filthy amount of money.

Currently:
Cu is $3.49/lb
Au is $675/oz
Zn is $1.40/lb

Wait for a full year of production from Golden Grove, the Prominent Hill announcement, and did anyone mention the A word? Or was it the T word? I'll stick with em.


----------



## nizar

crayfish said:
			
		

> In mid April OXR went though $3, WHEN
> 
> Cu was $3/lb AND
> Au was $610-620/oz
> 
> Both commodities are still way above these levels despite the drop in commodity prices this week, yet OXR has gone down towards that $3 mark of a month ago (well closed at $3.08). Does this equal panic selling?
> 
> While Cu and Zn prices stay near record highs OXR will make a filthy amount of money. In fact Cu would have to go beneath $2 for OXR not to make a filthy amount of money.
> 
> Currently:
> Cu is $3.49/lb
> Au is $675/oz
> Zn is $1.40/lb
> 
> Wait for a full year of production from Golden Grove, the Prominent Hill announcement, and did anyone mention the A word? Or was it the T word? I'll stick with em.




Agree

I will also stick with them until at least when Prominent Hill starts production H2 2008

Copper costs are 85c/lb and Zinc costs are 35c/lb or lower, 20c/lb if u take into account lead credits

LOOK AT THEIR MARGINS

Great advice there by tech, thats my view 100%, top up after the stock has bottomed and is on the way up

Nothing has changed fundamentally with OXR, the demand for their products is still there, and LME supplies of zinc and copper are still RUNNING OUT

This is one to hold for the long-term and accumulate on dips...


----------



## GreatPig

clowboy said:
			
		

> Nothing like losing a months worth of gains in two days



Yeah, almost as bad as having to hand it over to the tax man...

GP


----------



## nizar

LPA said:
			
		

> Honestly, I don't see why the carnage should continue...But I agree completely with the learning statement   I've learnt alot in the past few days - the number one thing being DON'T LISTEN TO ANYBODY.......everyone will be wrong, until they are right and then jump up and down telling you 'told you so!'.
> 
> I bought at $3.13 based on my own research and the spike in price (caught it midway).
> 
> I should of sold at $3.75 when everyone was saying it would pop $4.00 in a week or two.
> 
> I listened when people said it was just a small correction and held on when I saw it reach $3.55.
> 
> Today it started at about $3.20, and I bought at $3.14 because nobody seemed to think it would drop much further than that (plus it was what I paid for it originally basically so I was happy to add to my stocks).
> 
> Now people are saying $2.80?  over a 30% drop in three days? based on nothing but speculation that the metal rush is over......ouch.  So if I listen to these people I should sell now and buy again tomorrow (well, too late to do it NOW).  I just know that if I did that they would open at like $3.35 and I would lose out again.
> 
> Basically the stock that I chose a month ago and thought was doing great has just become one of the biggest losers (probably THE biggest) of this 'consolidation' period.  Trying to keep my head together is hard I must say, particularly as a new low-level player.  But I'm going to hold onto my stocks now.....OXR all the way!  I'm just waiting for an August announcement from them, that should get the fires burning again...
> 
> oh, and one final..............*SIGH*   stupid stock market   :




Brother stocks cannot keep going up forever

In May last year the index bottomed out at 3900, at the end of september was nearly 4800, fell to the high 4300s (oct24) and now in May, almost 5300 at the peaks... it has gone up 1000points (asx200) in less than 7 months

BHP at the october lows i remmeber was 19.48 and WPL 29.00, now at the highs almost 60% higher...

When the market goes up so fast in a short period of time, there is bound to be a correction, especially last week moved upwards very fast

Underlying fundamentals are still there, resource companies VERY profitable at the minute, but the shorter the time-frame ur looking at, the less fundamentals matter

For OXR, metals and gold were the main drivers of the share price, so of course, when they go down, OXR too will go down...

There is every reason for this to continue, to be honest, even though i lost a few Gs today and yesterday and probably a few more 2mrw, its better if we go down 8-10% like in october, all that will do is it will make the next leg up stronger

Even if we fall to 4400 (God forbid) the long-term is still up, as Wayne said, so nothing to worry about

LPA, u can sell whenever u make 15% gain or wateva, but the risk there is, if it runs away from u, u have to pay more $$$ to get in

I think some people new to the markets dont know what it feels like to lose money and for stocks to go down. We are still in a roaring bull-market, this correction will provide a buying opportunity for those who think they have missed the boat and for those who want to top up, and that buying will ignite the next leg of this bullrun

We may have a few more down weeks to go though, but like i said, when it comes back, it ill be much stronger and touch new highs (the resource stocks especially)


----------



## rederob

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Yeah, almost as bad as having to hand it over to the tax man...
> GP



I lost today what I would have had to pay on CGT had I sold OXR on the high last week.
Costello can wait until I have worked out how to transfer the profits into super - maybe have to run for Parliament on a super platform!
How do aI change my nic to Senatorederob?


----------



## bvbfan

If you look back at the history of OXR its had some great runs and severe pullbacks.
A few years ago it ran hard to 1.15 then pulled back to 75c nearly a 35% pullback.

Also the zinc price has dropped about 10% overnight, that should be the main driver not gold.

Zinc down from 1.70 to 1.50 area or about 60 million in revenue for OXR or about 15% in revenues in zinc alone
I think copper probably bit better in percentage terms

And its still well above my calculations from earlier in the thread which I figured would lead to 550mill in profit.
At now trading at a projected P/E of under 8 if we use 3.05 and the 550mill figure.


Would I buy now, probably not, likely too funds liquidating the commodities but this could be the opportunity for one of the the long rumoured takeover offers emerge.
I think we'll see under $3 this week


Just my opinion


----------



## coyotte

Excellent learning situation this

XAU has been around 4.5 for the last couple of months ( in the 3s indicates over bought , in the 5s oversold )  indicating POG was rising too fast

The mining stocks I follow inc. ORX where not indicating any fall in in base metals  EXCEPT that since mid April as they continued to make new highs the
ADX indicator has been showing showing a weakening tread (i had put this down to May-June )

So have we seen a break in the tradition of stocks indicating the direction of their underlying asset ---- or is this just a major shake-out

Yikes-- we might need a new Federal Budget!!

Cheers
Coyotte


----------



## blinkau

I got in at $3.49 which was a bit too expensive. I only put in a small amount as i felt it was fairly high but its a good learning experince, I seen the highs now the lows comming around. You gotta wonder about the people who purchased it on Friday must be kicking themselves now   

Im guessing tomorrow we will open below $3 im wondering might be time to sotckup again if we see it reach $2.80. Over the long-term though im sure it will recover. Seen red all over IRESS today with all the stocks in my watch list


----------



## rederob

blinkau said:
			
		

> I got in at $3.49 which was a bit too expensive. I only put in a small amount as i felt it was fairly high but its a good learning experince, I seen the highs now the lows comming around. You gotta wonder about the people who purchased it on Friday must be kicking themselves now
> 
> Im guessing tomorrow we will open below $3 im wondering might be time to sotckup again if we see it reach $2.80. Over the long-term though im sure it will recover. Seen red all over IRESS today with all the stocks in my watch list



Buy the dips in a rising market - it's hard to lose in the long term.
I was posting this same message about OXR when it was under 80 cents, and I was buying then.
I also bought more OXR today at the close.
I have never sold any of my OXR shares as the company is one of the few unhedged metal producers in the world.
In a commodity bull market it's the unhedged producers that are leveraged to rising/falling prices (like ZFX for zinc, and LHG for gold), and it's these stock that move mega percentages when the market runs.
Trust your judgement: OXR is a world class company that is making cash in spades.


----------



## markrmau

Looks like those who bought in the arvo yesterday will see a fantastic short cover kick in the morning (based on gold/copper as I write). Congrats.

Just a note if you are new to investing, this would have been a gamble that paid off. However, it is not a SAFE way to trade for beginners. Don't expect that just because everything turned out rosy this time, it will always be so.


----------



## mlennox

1230 CFDs in OXR @ 2.47 = $3001.20 @ 3% margin I had to front up with $150
1230 CFDS in OXR @ 3.74 = $4600.20

Gross Profit               $1600.20 
Less brokerage           $20
Less interest             $46.25

Net Profit                 $1532.75

Who said CFDs were rubbish again ?

I'll be looking to rebuy into OXR when the time is right the fundamentals are unchanged but the market has definately run ahead of itself and this correction was more then due.


----------



## mlennox

mlennox said:
			
		

> 1230 CFDs in OXR @ 2.47 = $3001.20 @ *5%* margin I had to front up with $150
> 1230 CFDS in OXR @ 3.74 = $4600.20
> 
> Gross Profit               $1600.20
> Less brokerage           $20
> Less interest             $46.25
> 
> Net Profit                 $1532.75
> 
> Who said CFDs were rubbish again ?
> 
> I'll be looking to rebuy into OXR when the time is right the fundamentals are unchanged but the market has definately run ahead of itself and this correction was more then due.




slight error


----------



## LPA

Well, it opens at $3.23

Looks like we were lucky with that one yesterday Rederob   Thanks for the advice as I now have twice as much stock as before because of your suggestion and it looks like (at this very early stage) it will recover nicely...

No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please!


----------



## Sean K

Don't get too excited LPA.

Be prepared for some more rocky waters ahead!


----------



## LPA

Yeah don't worry I am   It was just nice to see something positive in the morning after the last two days     But I remain optimistic...

*edit* Gold is now sitting just shy of 700 again and OXR is at $3.26.  Hopefully it can hold above 690 for the rest of the week, then we are good to go...no?

Well all the mining stocks are being bought again on the rally; top 5 most active stocks so far:

1.  	BHP  	BHP BLT FPO  	3025 		+32	 +1.1%  	
2. 	OXR 	OXIANA FPO 	321 		+13	 +4.2%	
3. 	ZFX 	ZINIFEX FPO 	1166 		+66	 +6.0%	
4. 	AMP 	AMP FPO 	993 		+8	 +0.8%	
5. 	RIO 	RIO TINTO FPO 	8324 		+69	 +0.8%

p.s. Please someone tell me if my constant updates are pointless or annoying   .....Just the best way to learn about these things for me, plus the vested interest


----------



## rederob

LPA said:
			
		

> Well, it opens at $3.23
> No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please!



How else do you make the big profits?
markrmau wants us to exercise caution - perhaps buying when the market turns up.
Fortune favours the bold, and battlefields are littered with the dead.
So don't go into the kitchen if you want others to cook for you!


----------



## michael_selway

LPA said:
			
		

> No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please!




Actually there probably will be, its a volatile market esp when we are at all time highs 

So caution as always, however medium term should be up, although longer term might be a turn around, so depends.

thx

MS


----------



## LPA

rederob said:
			
		

> How else do you make the big profits?




True...True...but give me some time to figure out what I'm doing in the market first! lol  

Thanks again for the help everyone...


----------



## nizar

kennas said:
			
		

> Don't get too excited LPA.
> 
> Be prepared for some more rocky waters ahead!




I second that

We could still have that 8-10% correction we are due to have... and THEN... after everything gets hit hard... the buying will cause the next upwards leg in this bullish market

Its risky to be buying on a day like today IMO...  

The market has still run very hard very fast so a correction is still coming...


----------



## LPA

Does a market correction mean that OXR will go down as well even if gold/copper keeps steady or slowly higher?  I mean we did see a 20% roughly drop in OXR over the last two days....isn't that a correction?  Just trying to get my head around these things and the people here are so good at answering my questions I'm not going to stop asking


----------



## professor_frink

nizar, gold has already moved down by nearly 8% from its highs last week.
I do agree it's a little too early to jump back on board though, unless your very brave!


----------



## michael_selway

LPA said:
			
		

> Does a market correction mean that OXR will go down as well even if gold/copper keeps steady or slowly higher?  I mean we did see a 20% roughly drop in OXR over the last two days....isn't that a correction?  Just trying to get my head around these things and the people here are so good at answering my questions I'm not going to stop asking




for OXR correction can be caused by a fall in commodities prices, which will also affect most resources stocks

Fall in DOW Jones affects everything, so OXR can be corrected that way also

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K

I think the market correction most people have in mind when we talk about 'correction' is the All Ords, or ASX200 declining 8%, not individual stocks or even sectors. 

Individual commodities have gone up between 100% and 400% over the past 2 years. A 10% drop in gold or zinc can not be considered a 'correction' under these conditions.


----------



## LPA

Another question about corrections ....Is it typical for a market to bounce back like it has this morning (30 points)?  If it does bounce back, then the correction hasn't really happened right and we should expect it again?

*edit* and we're over 700 once more for gold


----------



## markrmau

LPA said:
			
		

> Is it typical for a market to bounce back like it has this morning (30 points)?




NO! One day the metals market WILL cool. The asx will then go into a prolonged bear market. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

Everyone will be hanging on, buying dips and thinking what a bargain they are getting stock for which was significantly more expensive the previous year. It will continue to drop and eventually they will realize they have fooled themselves and sell out for significant loss. Don't let this be you!

We are playing musical chairs here and there sure as hell aren't enough chairs. We just don't know when the music will stop.


Edit: How appropriate for my post #666. Didn't notice until I hit submit!


----------



## LPA

I love that your doomsday post is your 666th   Not a good omen!


----------



## bvbfan

markrmau said:
			
		

> NO! One day the metals market WILL cool. The asx will then go into a prolonged bear market. It will be death by a thousand cuts.
> 
> Everyone will be hanging on, buying dips and thinking what a bargain they are getting stock for which was significantly more expensive the previous year. It will continue to drop and eventually they will realize they have fooled themselves and sell out for significant loss. Don't let this be you!




Sounds just like the NASDAQ - tech bubble bust. Those that lived through that should be able to understand this current situation a little better.

We've had a few corrections along the way but watch for lower lows in commodity prices. That will be a trigger for a mass exit


----------



## rederob

markrmau said:
			
		

> We are playing musical chairs here and there sure as hell aren't enough chairs. We just don't know when the music will stop.



In commodities, Mark, what is your time frame?
I have a sneaking suspicion that commodities will stay strong for as long as BRIC nations are determined to become "westernised" - a generation or more.
Within that time frame we will probably have a few mini boom and bust cycles as overproduction begats price collapse, and then under investment begats supply shortfalls and price spikes, etc, etc.
It will probably mean for OXR that we see it go through phases similar to those for BHP.  Except that BHP endured the doldrums from the previous resource boom of the 80s: All it did was make the company more determined, focussed and competent in its core business.  So it bounces back with a vengeance when the next cycle resumes.


----------



## michael_selway

rederob said:
			
		

> In commodities, Mark, what is your time frame?
> I have a sneaking suspicion that commodities will stay strong for as long as BRIC nations are determined to become "westernised" - a generation or more.
> Within that time frame we will probably have a few mini boom and bust cycles as overproduction begats price collapse, and then under investment begats supply shortfalls and price spikes, etc, etc.
> It will probably mean for OXR that we see it go through phases similar to those for BHP.  Except that BHP endured the doldrums from the previous resource boom of the 80s: All it did was make the company more determined, focussed and competent in its core business.  So it bounces back with a vengeance when the next cycle resumes.




rederob, when do u think is the next commodities bear market?

also do u think Africa will ever be a "china/india" on day? maybe the next supercycle bull market after this one is over?

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K

rederob, you are right about BRIC, as long as the world aconomy stays ok and there's no big wars. By big, I mean Christain v Islamic world with maybe China and Russia backing either side. 

The period 2000 - 2030 will be known as the BRIC evolution. Chindia will lead for most of this period, but I truelly believe that even the most bullish of us are underestimating what the shift from the countryside to the city will mean to these countries. Millions and millions and millions of people are going to need roads, footpaths, sanitation, telephones, TVs, medicine, sports stadiums, newspapers, computers, shoes, shoe laces, yada yada yada. 

And most of all POWER! Just where is it going to come from?


----------



## rederob

michael_selway said:
			
		

> rederob, when do u think is the next commodities bear market?
> also do u think Africa will ever be a "china/india" on day? maybe the next supercycle bull market after this one is over?



MS
When the US economy's wheels fall off and its train wreck impacts on those nations that have bought its debt - that's just about everyone - we will have a big bear market.
Between now and then we should see some commodities run hot and cold: Titanium for the aerospace industry will be the next kicker, while lead prices have only the coat tails of copper to draw them on.
Africa will not get close to becoming westernised in my lifetime, unless I become a centurion, or unless western nations return cash or in kind support to reimburse them for much of the wealth we have stripped from them.


----------



## rederob

rederob said:
			
		

> MS
> When the US economy's wheels fall off and its train wreck impacts on those nations that have bought its debt - that's just about everyone - we will have a big bear market.



Maybe one of the wheels fell off last night.
Although copper is only 2% lower than Tuesday's close and gold is actually 2% higher.
As the morning lights up there is a slow recovery in silver prices - up 35cents from its $12.90 session low.
Will be an interesting day.


----------



## moses

I've decided I don't like interesting days...


----------



## Lucstar

Why do you guys think that metal prices will cool? 
I mean China is in the greatest boom of all time and this boom will be sustained at least until the Olympics are over. For example, i don't see the iron ore prices busting any time soon. Maybe you guys are right in the fact that the commodity boom is unsustainable long term. However, i dont see any eractic downfalls in the short term


----------



## michael_selway

Lucstar said:
			
		

> Why do you guys think that metal prices will cool?
> I mean China is in the greatest boom of all time and this boom will be sustained at least until the Olympics are over. For example, i don't see the iron ore prices busting any time soon. Maybe you guys are right in the fact that the commodity boom is unsustainable long term. However, i dont see any eractic downfalls in the short term




yeah i agree with that, olympics is a big motivational driver atm, once its over surely there will be slow down 

However prices can go ahead of themselves in the ST so thus a pull back

Also DOW Jones can affect everything, so if DOW is bearish, everything will generally be bearish regardless

thx

MS


----------



## clowboy

MOSES,

That was such an AWESOME reply.  Worthy of framing.  I could not have portryed my feelings better.  I much prefer "normal" days also.


----------



## LPA

So begins another 'interesting' day....

$2.96 at open.  Big drop in the asx - I wonder where this will go now   Yet another crazy day to help me add to my store of knowledge!


----------



## ctp6360

ZFX has been going non-stop up since open though, haha wouldn't you kill yourself if youwere one of the ones that sold at 10.65, anyway I might be calling all of them SMART in a few days if things keep going this badly! My god lucky I have a strong heart!


----------



## professor_frink

be careful catching those knives ctp, works most of the time, but eventually you'll get cut!


----------



## LPA

Oh well, I think I'm just going to stop watching for the rest of the week now lol   

I have faith that OXR is a fantastic company that will continue to have great growth (maybe not stupidly unrealistic market speculation growth but growth all the same), and once they sort out this Prominent Hill project in August I have a feeling their stock price is going to go up quite nicely.....time to hold on to the rollercoaster I feel - although I am now out of profit entirely with them for the time being   and no more funds available to top up at all for this month...and $3.14 looked like such a nice number  : 

Nice lesson learnt here for me about not 'catching falling knives' too   I need to slow down my decision making process a bit...


----------



## rederob

The drop in OXR's share price is more than double that of the commodities it produces.
On the assumption there will be a bounce (and I seldom get these calls wrong), OXR will handsomely reward its patient fans and knife-cut opportunists.
Just remember that the fall in copper prices just a month ago was more severe in percentage terms and occurred when copper peaked just over $3.20 - copper has fallen to $3.55 today.
By the same token, gold at that time (25 April) was below $640 whereas its nearer $690 today.
So those that are in "fear" of the markets may make the mistake of selling into an already oversold market.
I reckon if copper goes $2.80 (the 27 April low) then we could have a new ballgame.
Not sure that world economies are in such bad shape - nickel prices actually rose overnight on tightening demand!


----------



## LPA

Well whichever analyst it was that said we would see OXR go to about $2.80 was right on the money.  Opened at around $2.88 this morning....

How much lower can it really go?


----------



## redandgreen

What a blood bath....
Does anyone have any idea where the resistance point might be?


----------



## LPA

Just broke below $2.60

Also, can somebody help a new guy out and tell us what the value of the shares should be based on earnings and projected growth?  

Is it's real value around the $2 mark that it was hovering near at the start of the year?  I would just like some information on when this stock becomes too cheap so that I can average down and hopefully make back my losses more quickly when it goes back up 

I'm not too good at all the fundamental analysis so I would be quite interested in where this company stands because everybody was saying how cheap it was when it was at $3.50!  Well if that's cheap, then this is getting psychotic crazy bargain cheap   :


----------



## redandgreen

the low point for this stock , i.e. the most pessimistic analyst target price is $2.20 . This is the bare bones SP stripped of all the hype.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

LPA said:
			
		

> Just broke below $2.60
> 
> Also, can somebody help a new guy out and tell us what the value of the shares should be based on earnings and projected growth?
> 
> Is it's real value around the $2 mark that it was hovering near at the start of the year?  I would just like some information on when this stock becomes too cheap so that I can average down and hopefully make back my losses more quickly when it goes back up
> 
> I'm not too good at all the fundamental analysis so I would be quite interested in where this company stands because everybody was saying how cheap it was when it was at $3.50!  Well if that's cheap, then this is getting psychotic crazy bargain cheap   :




This is no about fundamentals of anything, this share can go down to $2 next week if the market keeps this aversion against commodities and if the Fed increases rates next time again, you can be sure it will touch $2 and will keep going.

So put your stops very tight because the ride could be long and can hurt you.

WBII


----------



## nizar

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> This is no about fundamentals of anything, this share can go down to $2 next week if the market keeps this aversion against commodities and if the Fed increases rates next time again, you can be sure it will touch $2 and will keep going.
> 
> So put your stops very tight because the ride could be long and can hurt you.
> 
> WBII




True Warren

The shorter the time-frame u are looking at, the more fundamentals dont matter...

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...

But i dont think Fed increasing rates has anything to do with us
Last year they rose rates 12 times, every month and our market still made significant gains...

Metals and Gold is the driver, when they recover, our market recovers


----------



## Warren Buffet II

nizar said:
			
		

> True Warren
> 
> The shorter the time-frame u are looking at, the more fundamentals dont matter...
> 
> ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...
> 
> But i dont think Fed increasing rates has anything to do with us
> Last year they rose rates 12 times, every month and our market still made significant gains...
> 
> Metals and Gold is the driver, when they recover, our market recovers




Hi Nizar,

The issue now with Fed is that there are clear signs that inflation is picking up, last year they were just adjusting the rates to more normal ones, now the increases are because inflation is firing up and they need to stop it.

WBII


----------



## LPA

Well, I must say that I'm not interested in this stocks in the short term - this was an investment, not a trading strategy...so I'm still quite happy about the company as a whole.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what it does at opening tomorrow.  It almost went below $2.50 today, which is basically my average-down threshold and if it drops below about $2.45 I will buy more (although I did that when it dropped below $3.15 lol).  In the longer term I know that the rest of this year will be good for them - just wait until the Indian wedding season kicks off at the end of the year to see what real gold prices look like  ...for an unhedged producer it will be bliss (India accounts for about 25% of the gold market atm).  Probably followed by another disatrous may in '07  : stupid dang traders (as opposed to investors) speculating on a day to day basis and stressing me out! j/k of course as I know most people here are traders  ...


----------



## LPA

nizar said:
			
		

> ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...




What negative press? is that about resources in general?  I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment?  I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no?  Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!


----------



## nizar

LPA said:
			
		

> What negative press? is that about resources in general?  I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...
> 
> Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.
> 
> Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment?  I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no?  Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!





LPA i meant negative press about stocks in general

Now to answer ur earlier question about the value of OXR
bvbfan did a post earlier i think last month about earnings for OXR for this year using (then) current prices, which are still lower than commodity prices now

He came to about au$500million NPAT for FY2006

The prices he used are likely to be the average or even below average, becoz they were conservative estimates, for 2006..

GOlden Grove is a ZINC MACHINE....

Nothing to worry about longer term

To answer ur earlier question about value of OXR
500mil is 38cps
pe of 10, so $3.80 is fair value, so now its considerably undervalued...


----------



## coyotte

LPA said:
			
		

> What negative press? is that about resources in general?  I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...
> 
> Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.
> 
> Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment?  I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no?  Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!






Think your missing the point

using just a simple 21d EMA with BHP & buying /selling the next day after the signal

Sell March 05 $18

Buy June   05 $17
Sell Oct    05 $21

Buy Nov    05 $20
Sell Feb    06  $25

Buy March 06 $24
Sell May    06 $30

Profits a bit better than any div along the way 

Don't blame traders for this drop ---- they would have ALL been out of OXR
long before it passed down below $3.30

i was out on May 9 when indicators where strongly diverging from the High
and would srongly suspect that so where a lot of others


 probably best to wait for some consolidation after a fall like this -- bewary of a "dead cat bounce " -- most miners could go even lower -- ( flushed all the buyers out )


Best of luck
Coyotte


----------



## markrmau

nizar said:
			
		

> pe of 10, so $3.80 is fair value





Just be careful here, it is not appropriate to use simple p/e ratios to value a mining stock. Many other factors need to be taken into account: mine life, commodity prices going forwards, risk of beaconsfield or cbh style cavein etc...


----------



## michael_selway

markrmau said:
			
		

> Just be careful here, it is not appropriate to use simple p/e ratios to value a mining stock. Many other factors need to be taken into account: mine life, commodity prices going forwards, risk of beaconsfield or cbh style cavein etc...




thats true u know, btw here are the new OXR forecasts

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 30.4 20.3 13.4 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0 

thx

MS


----------



## LPA

Thanks for the replies everyone, interesting reading and it has taught me alot...

I guess I'll just sit on this one...I just have the feeling that if I sell to cut my losses during such a turbulent month I will be kicking myself later for it.  Also, at the level that I am trading, brokerage fees start to add up after a few trades and really do start to make an impact.  Time to go do something else for a week or so and then revisit....Hopefully they won't have gone bust by then


----------



## Fung

coyotte said:
			
		

> Think your missing the point
> 
> using just a simple 21d EMA with BHP & buying /selling the next day after the signal
> 
> Sell March 05 $18
> 
> Buy June   05 $17
> Sell Oct    05 $21
> 
> Buy Nov    05 $20
> Sell Feb    06  $25
> 
> Buy March 06 $24
> Sell May    06 $30
> 
> Profits a bit better than any div along the way
> 
> Don't blame traders for this drop ---- they would have ALL been out of OXR
> long before it passed down below $3.30
> 
> i was out on May 9 when indicators where strongly diverging from the High
> and would srongly suspect that so where a lot of others
> 
> 
> probably best to wait for some consolidation after a fall like this -- bewary of a "dead cat bounce " -- most miners could go even lower -- ( flushed all the buyers out )
> 
> 
> Best of luck
> Coyotte




Just wondering what's the signal which makes you buy/sell ?


----------



## coyotte

Fung said:
			
		

> Just wondering what's the signal which makes you buy/sell ?





BHP was just a simple example

But with OXR -- for confirmation of Price action  (No 1)

ADX -- 21/13  and/or 14/7
Twiggs Money Flow   14 and/or 21
OBV  ---- 13

ADX  had been flatening since April 24 --- D+ falling  -- D-  rising with confirmation
on may 4 (short term )  ADX 14/7 cross over & falling


TMF  heading lower against higher Prices
OBV  neutrial
red candles  2 to 1 near the top 

the weight of evidence pointed to a short term correction ( not a massacer)
SELL May 9 & Buy back on recovery


But those 3 Doji after May9 would have been more than enough if i was still in 
in OXR @ the time



Cheers Coyotte


----------



## LPA

Copper up 12%, gold regaining some ground and staying pretty stable....should be a good day for OXR.

Damn I wish I had more cash two days ago


----------



## Fung

coyotte said:
			
		

> BHP was just a simple example
> 
> But with OXR -- for confirmation of Price action  (No 1)
> 
> ADX -- 21/13  and/or 14/7
> Twiggs Money Flow   14 and/or 21
> OBV  ---- 13
> 
> ADX  had been flatening since April 24 --- D+ falling  -- D-  rising with confirmation
> on may 4 (short term )  ADX 14/7 cross over & falling
> 
> 
> TMF  heading lower against higher Prices
> OBV  neutrial
> red candles  2 to 1 near the top
> 
> the weight of evidence pointed to a short term correction ( not a massacer)
> SELL May 9 & Buy back on recovery
> 
> 
> But those 3 Doji after May9 would have been more than enough if i was still in
> in OXR @ the time
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers Coyotte




Hmm.... Thanks for you reply but i don't really understands..
Would you please explain futuremore? Sorry i am a newbie and i am trying to learn.


----------



## coyotte

Fung
If you go to  www.incrediblecharts.com  and download the free software, i'll show you what i was looking at:

@ View  ---- Candles
@ Indicators -- set up a ADX 14 with optinal smoothing 7
@ Indicators -- Twiggs Money Flow ---- 14


ADX --- you will notice that since April 24 OXR was making new highs But the D+ line is diverging down ( which is also shown on the 21/13 setup ) which is indicating that the trend is weakening
on May 4 the ADX crosses below the 13Day line ( signaling a exit ) 
OXR continues to make more highs --- but ADX continues to fall and stay below the 7 day trigger line ---- D+ continues to fall or flaten


Twiggs Money Flow -- Since April 20 TMF had been diverging down (indicating distribution) whilst OXR made new highs --- when i noticed this i switched from medium ( 21/13 day indicator settings to shorter 14/7 )

Price : Red Candels where becoming greater than green -- indicating selling @ end of day --- tails on the greens where mostly UP  ( indicating selling at the higher prices ) the non-confirmed Doji  and compressing Ave True Range showed the OXR probably wasn't being chased anymore !


Keep your stops tight (switch from L/M term to Short term settings) when  a
stock just looks like its getting toppy

If your wrong just buy back in --- if your right buy back in @ cheaper price     when it is safe do do so --- OXR @ the moment would have stay above $3.30  using count back methods --- May22 Low to May17 High

Apart from Price Action (Candels, TrendLine, MAs,Patterns) i only use the ADX and TMF ---- KISS 


Entery similar exept Volume and if appliable "Count Back" MUST be verified


hope this is of help 
if not feel welcome to continue

you will find Incredible Charts has all you need for position trading -- have to juggle a bit to include GMMAs -- and its FREE  with a very helpfull forum



Cheers
Coyotte


----------



## coyotte

Fung

A correctly set-up ADX has 4 lines

1: D+ or P(ositive ) Bulls 

2: D- or N(egative) Bears

3: ADX ( usually set @ 21 or 14 )

4: ADX trigger line ( usually a setting 50% to 66% of ADX )

in a long Position the ADX must remain above the Trigger Line


----------



## LPA

http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/00617432.pdf

Oxiana to Sell its Philippines Interest to Royalco

What do people think about this news?  Any thoughts as to how this may affect the stock price next week...

Also, does anybody here think that the IPO would be a good buy?


----------



## lewstherin

I wouldn't touch any mining companies that had majority interests in the Phillipines mainly because the Phili government are seriously untrustworthy and corrupt, plus they are heavily influenced by anti-mining Catholic bishops.  Have a look at my comments in the LAF thread for what can happen.

Maybe if the Philis get their crap together, but until then major sovereign risk.

IMO, its probably a good move for OXR to get rid of what could be a very risky venture.


----------



## Knobby22

lewstherin said:
			
		

> I wouldn't touch any mining companies that had majority interests in the Phillipines mainly because the Phili government are seriously untrustworthy and corrupt, plus they are heavily influenced by anti-mining Catholic bishops.  Have a look at my comments in the LAF thread for what can happen.
> 
> Maybe if the Philis get their crap together, but until then major sovereign risk.
> 
> IMO, its probably a good move for OXR to get rid of what could be a very risky venture.




What a load of crap. It's corruption that's the problem.


----------



## redandgreen

Have a look at how well IRN has performed since listing.           
Another copper/gold exploration company in Mindanao, Phillipines.
It might just be worth buying into Royalco  IPO at 50c.


----------



## kariba

LPA said:
			
		

> http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/00617432.pdf
> What do people think about this news?  Any thoughts as to how this may affect the stock price next week...
> Also, does anybody here think that the IPO would be a good buy?





IPO should do well IMO

But I doubt that it will have much impact in OXR's share price .... way too big for that. But, they are developing a nice diversified shareholding in various companies!

OXR what a great stock!!!

cheers

cheers


----------



## MalteseBull

MASSIVE BUYING GOING ON NOW! incrediable never seen anything like it 3.11/3.12


----------



## Fab

Yep and big selling at 3.20


----------



## kariba

Great day for the OX! Some BIG buying happening through the day - normally an indication that one of the metals is about to run. Looks like it is going to be copper, with LME stocks reportedly low

cheers


----------



## jovialTrader

OXR suddenly just jumped up to + 3.36% in the past 10 mins. Any Idea why? any big news in US? 

Cant be as the Gold market has ended? any leads?

JT


----------



## redandgreen

jovialTrader said:
			
		

> OXR suddenly just jumped up to + 3.36% in the past 10 mins. Any Idea why? any big news in US?
> 
> Cant be as the Gold market has ended? any leads?
> 
> JT




 the SP is underpinned by the suggestion that when the price weakens it is vulnerable to a takeover.  This might be the explanation.


----------



## laurie

redandgreen said:
			
		

> the SP is underpinned by the suggestion that when the price weakens it is vulnerable to a takeover.  This might be the explanation.




Agree then I thought if that's the case what are they waiting for! so redandgreen what price has it to reach before they are safe from Xstrata $4/$5  : 

cheers laurie


----------



## bvbfan

Only explanation for today was the news out of Canada that the suitor touted to be making a takeover had their bid rejected for Falconbridge, if they decide to give up then they will go for OXR.

However will Xstrata make another bid for Falconbridge?
Will they give up and sell their existing 25% stake they hold?

If they do, they will be cashed up so I would be more likely to believe an offer is being thought about at prices near the highs OXR reached.

I still want $5 if they are going to get my shares.


----------



## laurie

yep but then again it's not up to us   

cheers laurie


----------



## ctp6360

If they pay me $5 for my OXR shares I'm going to buy a Yacht and hold a party for everyone on this forum with free drinks and bitches (and male strippers for Julia and the other ladies!)


----------



## nizar

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> If they pay me $5 for my OXR shares I'm going to buy a Yacht and hold a party for everyone on this forum with free drinks and bitches (and male strippers for Julia and the other ladies!)




Sounds good...


----------



## redandgreen

laurie said:
			
		

> Agree then I thought if that's the case what are they waiting for! so redandgreen what price has it to reach before they are safe from Xstrata $4/$5  :
> 
> cheers laurie




I reckon $5.75 sounds fair, whaddya reckon?


----------



## powwww

LPA said:
			
		

> http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/00617432.pdf
> 
> Oxiana to Sell its Philippines Interest to Royalco
> 
> What do people think about this news?  Any thoughts as to how this may affect the stock price next week...
> 
> Also, does anybody here think that the IPO would be a good buy?





1) Amazing and positive, especially if you're lucky enough to get your hands on some of the Royalco IPO.  2) positive, keep in mind Oxiana will retain a 51% buyback option for each resource discovered (upon payment of 8mill to royalco and free carrying them to the BFS) AND they own 17.7% of ROYALCO.  AND if you look at the tenements you'd be crazy not to think this wasn't highly likely to occur...It's good to see RIO and OXIANA working together on this one.

Look, I can see your concern, they letting go of some highly prospective tenements and some success seems likely imo (read pages 9-13 of the prospective for a brief outline). Oxiana has returned some promising results from Gambang and Pao/Yabbe tenements so it could be argued that it is a negative to OXR letting these go. However Royalco has retained the OXR PI team as well as appointed Peter Lester, Executive General Manager Corporate Development for Oxiana as a Director of Royalco. Therefore the OX isn't letting go by a long shot!!!    

IMO the OX have chosen an amazing partner- the key here is the portfolio of royalties which will provide say $4million income to Royalco at current gold prices (see the prospectus for more info). Therefore with 12million raised from only 24 million shares available i'd think that cap raising wouldn't be happening for quite some time unless they get a huge discovery! This removes one major risk that most other exploration companies face...So with a spend of 6.6million AUD on drilling over 2 years and royalties around $8million over the same period this looks like a unique opportunity for oxiana who already had a lot on their plate without managing the OPI exploration. Best thing is at the issue price of 50cents the market cap is only $28 million you would have to think with steady market & commodities conditions the OXR will be gaining some big $$ upon openning. 3) Unbelievable buy if you can get your hands on it however from the quality of the float, which is sure to attract plenty of insto sized investors, I wouldn't be surprised if it closed very early...

For more info see the article by Barry Fitzgerald in "The Age" May 29 2006 @ http://www.theage.com.au/news/barry...n-royalco-float/2006/05/28/1148754873240.html

Regards for now,


----------



## ALFguy

From Miningnews.net

OXIANA is not frightened of a challenge or risk and is on the hunt for joint ventures, farm-in opportunities and acquisitions as it continues down the path to becoming Australia's next major mining house, according to managing director Owen Hegarty.

Hegarty threw the invitation to the crowd assembled at the Burswood Convention Centre in Perth as he opened the second annual Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) National Congress when he delivered the Sir Arvi Parbo Oration.

After paying homage to Parbo and his contribution to the industry, Hegarty turned his attentions to the old chestnut that is China, describing the rise of the superpower as "an unparalleled opportunity for (the Australian mining) industry … to participate much more".

"China needs resources from us, but also from within," he said.

"It needs our technology, our technical assistance, our know-how and our capital across the board, from exploration through to project development.

"China remains un[explored] and under-explored and the best expertise in the world is right here."

Hegarty was more bullish than ox-like as he pontificated on the future of the three commodities that have made Oxiana one of the highest returning stocks on the ASX over the past five years – gold, copper and zinc.

He said the demand fundamentals of all three metals painted a rosy future for producers, with costs rising and falling grades making it more difficult for new entrants to increase supply.

Hegarty said getting the right people was the key to Oxiana's success. The right people are those who conform to the company's four key values of respect, action, performance and openness, he said.

"There are two types of people in the world – those who do the work and those who take the credit for it," Heggarty said.

"You're better off being in the first category, because there are less of them."


----------



## nizar

the full presentation

http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/... oration.pdf


----------



## Sean K

OXR must be looking tasty to some of you Ox, um, bulls.

I've seen $3.85 price targets on this. Currently $2.60. That's gotta make it pretty cheap now?  

I think it's time to wash the week away....... :drink:


----------



## Ants

Close to 6 million bucks has just been placed for OXR after close.


----------



## powwww

from today's age -- http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...loodbath/2006/06/11/1149964410615.html?page=2
---
FROM the update file comes news that in the midst of last week's great resources sell-off, Melbourne-based Royalco Resources comfortably raised $12 million for the twin pursuits of royalty streams and the game-changing potential of exploration in the Philippines.

Garimpeiro wrote about the float a fortnight ago and it seems that the combination of ongoing royalty streams from a portfolio of 10 projects and the Philippines exploration potential was more than enough to quell investor fears brought on by last week's rout in resource stocks.

The offer has been closed heavily oversubscribed, with the invitation to Oxiana's 28,000 shareholders to subscribe creating plenty of traffic.

Oxiana itself ends up with 17.7 per cent of the stock on debut, courtesy of the Filipino properties injected into Royalco.

Demand was sufficiently strong for Royalco to fill the $12 million raising without having to print a prospectus, although some will be printed for those subscribers who like "hard" copies for their files.

That Royalco got away ahead of the limited edition of hard copies being printed was due to the ability nowadays to subscribe via the internet ”” after reading the online prospectus, of course. The nation's forests can breathe easier, given it's a trend that can be expected to become the norm.


----------



## michael_selway

powwww said:
			
		

> from today's age -- http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...loodbath/2006/06/11/1149964410615.html?page=2
> ---
> FROM the update file comes news that in the midst of last week's great resources sell-off, Melbourne-based Royalco Resources comfortably raised $12 million for the twin pursuits of royalty streams and the game-changing potential of exploration in the Philippines.
> 
> Garimpeiro wrote about the float a fortnight ago and it seems that the combination of ongoing royalty streams from a portfolio of 10 projects and the Philippines exploration potential was more than enough to quell investor fears brought on by last week's rout in resource stocks.
> 
> The offer has been closed heavily oversubscribed, with the invitation to Oxiana's 28,000 shareholders to subscribe creating plenty of traffic.
> 
> Oxiana itself ends up with 17.7 per cent of the stock on debut, courtesy of the Filipino properties injected into Royalco.
> 
> Demand was sufficiently strong for Royalco to fill the $12 million raising without having to print a prospectus, although some will be printed for those subscribers who like "hard" copies for their files.
> 
> That Royalco got away ahead of the limited edition of hard copies being printed was due to the ability nowadays to subscribe via the internet ”” after reading the online prospectus, of course. The nation's forests can breathe easier, given it's a trend that can be expected to become the norm.




The real scandal at Oxiana

Stephen Mayne

Stephen Mayne, small Oxiana shareholder, says the miner should just come clean

Date: 22 June 2006

The real scandal at Oxiana 
Top 20 Australian business figures 
The Myer sale's shrinking profits 
Morgan Stanley's bearish take on ASX 
Socceroos' win boosts a lot of bottom lines 
James Strong should disown the pokies 
A vintage year for climate change 
Preparing for an ABC Learning showdown 
Unitab shareholders: ditch Tattersall's 
Rio Tinto just 15% Australian owned 
Macquarie Communications -- full debate 
more... 
After copping the second biggest protest vote against its remuneration report over the past year, booming miner Oxiana Resources has finally come out and done this mea culpa two months after the AGM took place.

However, chairman Barry Cusack and CEO Owen Hegarty have focused on issues which were not the point of the protest, and both Andrew Trounson in The Australian and Michael Pascoe in Crikey yesterday have missed the point. The issue had nothing to do with option valuations and the involvement of non-executive directors in incentive schemes.

The scandal involved changing the performance period on Hegarty's options. Hegarty was issued four million options to buy shares at $1.20 apiece at the 2004 AGM, but the notice of meeting only stated that "the options will vest on 1 June 2006, subject to the satisfaction of performance hurdles".

The subsequent 2004 annual report, released in March 2005, clarified that the hurdles were as follows:

50% will vest on 1 June 2006 if the total shareholder return of Oxiana for the year ended June 30, 2005 exceeds the median of the total shareholder return of competitor companies. 
a further 50% will vest on 1 June 2006 if the total shareholder return of Oxiana for the year ended 30 June 2005 is in the top quartile of the total shareholder return of competitor companies. 
Fast forward to the 2005 annual report and suddenly we're told the hurdles are as follows for these same 4 million options:

50% will vest on 1 June 2006 if the total shareholder return of Oxiana for the two years ended 31 December 2005 exceeds the median of the total shareholder return of comparator companies; 
a further 50% will vest on 1 June 2006 if the total shareholder return of Oxiana for the two years ended 31 December 2005 is in the top quartile of the total shareholder return of comparator companies. 
Oxiana has gone into orbit over the past year but, sadly for Hegarty, it under-performed in the broader market and its comparator companies over the 2004-05 financial year. Therefore, the four million options should have lapsed. Lo and behold, the 2005 annual report changed the hurdle time frame to two years, so next week Hegarty will be able to write out a cheque for $4.8 million to buy stock worth $11.84 million based on this morning's share price of $2.96.

That's a paper profit of $7 million for Hegarty at the expense of all other shareholders who will be diluted. Why the hell can't the company just confess that this is the issue rather than putting out complete smokescreens? 

http://www.crikey.com.au/articles/2006/06/22-1543-1472.html


----------



## nizar

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/i...8?opendocument


----------



## crayfish

nizar said:
			
		

> http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/i...8?opendocument




Http Status Code: 404

Reason: File not found or unable to read file

...


----------



## LPA

well the Prominent Hill news has hit NineMSN.....watch the fireworks


----------



## michael_selway

LPA said:
			
		

> well the Prominent Hill news has hit NineMSN.....watch the fireworks






> Ambitious Oxiana
> By Robert Gottliebsen
> 
> PORTFOLIO POINT: Oxiana’s Owen Hegarty believes underlying commodity shortages remain, despite the economic slowdown ”” and consequent reduced demand ”” being imposed by the world’s central banks.
> 
> The latest commodity price and sharemarket falls do not alter the long-term strategy of Oxiana chief executive Owen Hegarty. Like most in the resources industry, he believes there is a long-term underlying shortage of metals such as copper and zinc, which will keep prices at very profitable levels for low-cost producers like Oxiana.
> 
> As you will hear in today’s interview, Oxiana is looking to effectively double production between now and 2009.
> 
> This interview took place just prior to last week’s crunch, and last Friday's relief rally.
> 
> Nevertheless, we should acknowledge that just as Australia was the main beneficiary from the global excesses in market prices, it will also be the one that suffers most from the slowdown now being imposed by the world’s central banks.
> 
> Although most of the focus has been on US inflation and interest rates, many countries have lifted rates including Europe, Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Iceland and Australia.
> 
> The world has to hope that central banks in Europe, the US and elsewhere don’t overplay their hand and convert a slowdown into a recession.
> 
> The recent bounce on Wall Street indicates the markets are confident this won’t happen. But had central banks not taken action to curb US consumers and world activity, there was real danger of a catastrophe.
> 
> The commodity price boom was fuelled by combination of acute shortages and hedge fund buying. A slowdown will ease demand, but the recent price falls were multiplied by the hedge funds’ panic selling. Underneath those fluctuations are long-term continuing shortages of copper, zinc and iron ore, and that will not change unless there is a world recession.
> 
> Once the hedge funds start speculating in other areas to recoup their losses the commodity market will stabilise.
> 
> No one can ever pick when the market will bottom but if Owen Hegarty is right then long-term resource buyers may have a chance to invest at good prices over coming months. But don’t be surprised if there are further falls along with bounces such as the recent Wall Street jump. I don’t expect an immediate return to boom conditions on the equity market; once a market turns, and central banks are aiming to slow, the game usually changes. But there is an opportunity for those seeking long-term value. In that context you must evaluate Owen Hegarty’s plans, which he sets out very well in the interview.
> 
> 
> The interview
> 
> Robert Gottliebsen: You want to convert Oxiana into one of Australia’s top 50 companies. How will you do it?
> 
> Owen Hegarty: Over the next several years we’ve got a number of growth opportunities that we’re pursuing. We have a very strong exploration focus in Asia and Australia. We believe we know the [rocks] and the people and how to do business there very well. We’ve got a number of growth projects. We’re looking to expand our Sepon copper and gold operations. We’re looking to bring on Prominent Hill. That will be the world’s next most significant copper/gold project and we’ve got a number of other incremental expansions. So that’s how we’re looking to grow over the next few years.
> 
> How much are you going to spend on these projects?
> 
> We’ve mentioned that Prominent Hill is a multi-hundred-million-dollar investment. Equally, at Sepon those expansions won’t be vastly different from that and the incremental expansions, of course, are somewhat less, so you would expect that a capital expenditure of round about the billion dollars over the next few years.
> 
> Where will you get that sort of money?
> 
> We’re in the fortunate position at the moment, a good strong balance sheet at this time with cash ”” plenty of cash in the bank; and also the cash flow that’s coming at us over these next few years is very strong and the projects that we have are eminently bankable and gearable if we need to increase our debt levels. So eminently financeable within our existing resource base plus some increments, perhaps, from the banks.
> 
> By 2009, what will be your production at Oxiana?
> 
> For 2009 we’re targeting around about the 400,000 tonnes per annum of base metals. That’s copper and zinc and about 400,000 ounces per annum of gold.
> 
> Are you looking for acquisitions?
> 
> Yes, we’re always on the lookout for sensible acquisitions and adjuncts to our business, whether that be some of the exploration plays or a major merger or acquisition; so always on the lookout there. As I say to people, we haven’t seen anything worth leaving home for just yet but we’re always looking and I can say just on that, that in terms of acquisitions what we’re looking for of course are those things that we would be comfortable with, those acquisitions that we could actually make a difference to and make a difference to us. So they’re the sort of criteria.
> 
> Based on projected profits by the analysts, your price/earnings ratio for 2006 is less than 10. Are you vulnerable to takeover?
> 
> Well we think that price/earnings ratio projection is, yes, at less than 10. We’re serially undervalued there by the market and of course we’re vulnerable, which is why we’re going very hard at the ball to continue to grow the business, to continue to perform to get that price up because the best defence against a takeover is increasing your share price.
> 
> Looking around the world, companies like Xstrata are trawling the resources sector looking for takeovers. Can you really remain independent?
> 
> Companies such as that and other larger or medium scale resource companies are always looking for acquisitions and they know that they have to make acquisitions to continue to grow. It is a resource-hungry world and it looks as if it’s going to stay that way for the next … in some cases people are talking about decades. Therefore, they will continue to look at that so we are … you’d have to say … we are vulnerable but as I say the best defence against that is to continue to grow the business. We believe that we can remain independent. Our target is to become Australia’s next major mining house and there’s a gap there at the moment to do that and we are going for that gap.
> 
> Metal prices are high. Why don’t you sell forward your future production?
> 
> Look we think hedging is … the best hedge is operate very low-cost mines ”” copper and gold ”” and we are blessed with some wonderful assets up there at Sepon and at Prominent Hill and at Golden Grove, and therefore they will be low-cost producers. We don’t see any need therefore to hedge, particularly in an environment that we see is going to be undersupplied in terms of copper and zinc and other base and precious metals for the foreseeable future. So strong demand, buoyant prices, buoyant markets and therefore not necessary for us to hedge anything forward.
> 
> So what do you think the gold, copper and zinc prices will be by 2010?
> 
> Well we’re not really into making predictions, but you’d have to say that most commentators out there are talking about, say around about the $1000 mark for gold. They’re talking similar prices for copper that we have at the moment and maybe a little bit on the less side for zinc, but one thing is for sure: we believe that the market’s going to remain strong and you’ll have good solid prices there for our products.
> 
> If the world had a downturn between now and 2010 would you be vulnerable?
> 
> We don’t think we’d be exposed. We’ve got a very strong balance sheet. We’ve got very good performing operations and we’re prudent financially and therefore anything that we undertake we ensure we have the resources ”” the human resources as well as the financial resources to complete the job.
> 
> Australia has had many miners in your position: Western Mining, MIM, Normandy, North … Are you likely to go the same way?
> 
> We’re a public company and therefore always exposed to the market but the most important thing that we are doing: we have a pipeline of growth projects and we’re pursuing them with great vigour. We understand that, yes, those companies were taken out before their time, if you like. We’ve got to make sure that that doesn’t happen to us and we have to continue to grow the company and pursue those opportunities with the usual messianic zeal.
> 
> Robert Gottliebsen is a national business commentator with The Australian.




http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/pages/511BF9F1C009F4A6CA2571920001545E/$file/060610%20Owen%20Hegarty%20RG.wmv

thx

MS


----------



## jovialTrader

Due to the unrest and tensions in the Middle East, the price of gold has been climbing north...But any ideas, why the gold stocks are going south?? (particularly with OXR been going down quite a bit for the past 2 days...)?

Hope members here can shed some lights...as with the latest OXR announcement and the climbing POG, I would have expected OXR to go up as well...weirdd...

JT


----------



## laurie

Same with oil the market confuses me most of the time  

cheers laurie


----------



## stockmaster

jovialTrader said:
			
		

> Due to the unrest and tensions in the Middle East, the price of gold has been climbing north...But any ideas, why the gold stocks are going south?? (particularly with OXR been going down quite a bit for the past 2 days...)?
> 
> Hope members here can shed some lights...as with the latest OXR announcement and the climbing POG, I would have expected OXR to go up as well...weirdd...
> 
> JT




I believe the reason why OXR went down is because the market is moving in the south. I believe this time the market force has surpassed the rise in gold price. 110 down is a lot!!!


----------



## jovialTrader

Just out of curiousity...the price of gold now has been driven up to ard US$650 mark. This is mainly due the  middle east unrest. Now let's see what will happen when the tension is over...the gold price will go down again (slight correction). Will this drive the price of OXR down again? 

Wat do u guys think?

JT


----------



## saichuen

call me wishful thinking, but i still believe it's quite possible to buy OXR at $2.80 to $3.00 later. as for the gold price, it will probably head down shortly before giving it a shot at $700.

my views only of course...


----------



## rederob

jovialTrader said:
			
		

> Just out of curiousity...the price of gold now has been driven up to ard US$650 mark. This is mainly due the  middle east unrest. Now let's see what will happen when the tension is over...the gold price will go down again (slight correction). Will this drive the price of OXR down again?
> 
> Wat do u guys think?
> 
> JT



I think gold would be almost as high today regardless of the Middle East situation.
Moreover, I think gold will be much higher very soon (all time high before end September).
OXR will have a cracker of an Annual Report and punters who missed the boat will just have to pay the price or drown their sorrows.
I could always be wrong, but I doubt it!


----------



## NettAssets

It will be an interesting time

Oxiana is already a bit overvalued campared to the other Aussie goldies and this may be justifyable cause I also think there will be lots of light in the annual report this chart would seem to suggest that some of this sentiment is already priced in 

John
Ive decided to bet on CBH instead


----------



## snapper_man

I've been a big fan of Oxiana for a long while buying about 7 years ago on the advice of a freind and his praise of the management. In that time I have seen them rise over $3 and now account for around 60% of my self managed super fund - yes I know that is not healthy but I really believe oxiana have a long way to go.
A couple of points about Oxiana. They make a lot more from Copper and Zinc than Gold. In fact copper will add four times what gold will do the bottom line this year. Zinc will add roughly the same this year. So Gold, given current production and cost will make up roughly 1/9th of Net Profit only. Going forward with prominent hill and a possible/likely sepon expansion, Copper and the medium and long term price of the metal will be more important to the share price of Oxiana. 
Some analysts have forecast $320 m. net profit this year. This will almost certainly be bettered by at least $100m. If copper/zinc prices average anywhere near current levels next year this will be bettered again. 
Prominent Hill is a monster and will roughly double current production and net profit. I do not think the market has digested the scale and economy of prominent Hill.

This week - 20th July the latest quarterly figures come out. I have a strong feelling that their will be a big resource upgrade at Thengkham North where they have had a very busy drilling program. 
Unless there is disapointing figures (unlikely) in this quarterly I expect the share price to receive a big boost by the end of the week.

End of August - Prominent Hill feasability study released.

End of Sept - Half year financials should give the first indications of a big profit for year.

The next 2 months are an exciting time for oxiana. I expect the share price to over $4 by the end of Sept.

Cheers
T.


----------



## crayfish

From http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=62298 :

_*Solid quarter by the Ox * 

Michael Quinn
Thursday, July 20, 2006

OXIANA says it remains on track to meet all forecasts after delivering a "rock solid" operational quarter that was highlighted by a strong copper performance at its Sepon project in Laos. 

Sepon produced 15,995 tonnes (or 35.25 million pounds) of copper cathode – slightly above the 15,000t per quarter capacity – at cash costs of US70c per pound, and total production costs of 85c/lb, with the unhedged Oxiana noting an average copper price for the quarter of $3.30/lb.

Gold performance at Sepon was again comparatively weak – 39,274 ounces at total cash costs of $340 per ounce and total production costs of $501/oz – with Oxiana managing director Owen Hegarty pointing out that copper was by far the main cash generator at the project.

Meantime, in Western Australia the company's polymetallic Golden Grove operation produced 60,400t of zinc-in-concentrate, down from the "world record" March quarter but still putting the company on track to meet the upper end of the forecast 130,000-140,000t range for the year. Total production costs were 51c/lb (net of credits) with the zinc price averaging $1.49/lb.

On the development front, Oxiana will announce capital and operating costs for Prominent Hill in South Australia next month, coinciding with the company's half year results, while exploration is currently targeting the copper-gold system at depth.

Corporately, Hegarty said the company was "not in any conversations about being acquired".

Shares in Oxiana were up 15c (4.8%) at $3.26 in midday trade._


----------



## crayfish

Sheesh! If my maths is correct that equates to a profit of around US$220mill for the quarter, from production of copper/zinc/gold...ooops, I forgot the silver. (I guess not including other costs, exploration, Prominent Hill etc.). More than 95% of that figure is from copper and zinc. Snapper is dead right - Clearly OXR is no longer just a 'goldie'. Some nice drill results in there too.


----------



## nizar

Well according to my calcs; EBIT for the quarter is around us$180m

Au: 48koz at sepon and GG at us$350/oz cash cost
average gold price for the quarter about us$638
so margin per oz is us$280
net revenue = 288*48,000 = us$13,824,000

Cu: 16ktonnes at sepon , 1ktonnes at GG = 17ktonnes at cash cost of 60c/lb
average LME copper price for the quarter us$3.30/lb
so margin per lb is us$2.70/lb
net revenue = 2.70*17,000*1,000*2.2 = us$100,980,000

Zn: 30ktonnes at GG at cash cost 39c/lb
average LME zinc price for the quarter about us$1.49
so margin per lb is $us1.10
net revenue = 1.10*30,000*1,000*2.2 = us$72,600,000

Total EBIT = 72,600,000 + 100,980,000 + 13,824,000
= us$187,404,000

I am expecting NPAT for 2006 to be about us$500million

Im calling OXR sp to be over $4 by the time half yearly is out on August 25th


----------



## clowboy

Using westpacs shares on issue I get that estimate to be around US11cps.

Is this correct?


----------



## YELNATS

snapper_man said:
			
		

> I've been a big fan of Oxiana for a long while buying about 7 years ago on the advice of a freind and his praise of the management. In that time I have seen them rise over $3 and now account for around 60% of my self managed super fund - yes I know that is not healthy but I really believe oxiana have a long way to go.
> A couple of points about Oxiana. They make a lot more from Copper and Zinc than Gold. In fact copper will add four times what gold will do the bottom line this year. Zinc will add roughly the same this year. So Gold, given current production and cost will make up roughly 1/9th of Net Profit only. Going forward with prominent hill and a possible/likely sepon expansion, Copper and the medium and long term price of the metal will be more important to the share price of Oxiana.
> Some analysts have forecast $320 m. net profit this year. This will almost certainly be bettered by at least $100m. If copper/zinc prices average anywhere near current levels next year this will be bettered again.
> Prominent Hill is a monster and will roughly double current production and net profit. I do not think the market has digested the scale and economy of prominent Hill.
> 
> This week - 20th July the latest quarterly figures come out. I have a strong feelling that their will be a big resource upgrade at Thengkham North where they have had a very busy drilling program.
> Unless there is disapointing figures (unlikely) in this quarterly I expect the share price to receive a big boost by the end of the week.
> 
> End of August - Prominent Hill feasability study released.
> 
> End of Sept - Half year financials should give the first indications of a big profit for year.
> 
> The next 2 months are an exciting time for oxiana. I expect the share price to over $4 by the end of Sept.
> 
> Cheers
> T.




I've been tracking OXR for about the last 2 years, and I'm still kicking myself for not buying when they were $1. Just the same I've got on board recently, so it's nice to read your commendation.

Regards, YN.


----------



## nizar

crayfish said:
			
		

> Corporately, Hegarty said the company was "not in any conversations about being acquired".
> 
> Shares in Oxiana were up 15c (4.8%) at $3.26 in midday trade.[/I]






Interesting read

I think if OXR were to be taken over; it wouldve happened when the share price was around $2.50 about a month ago...

It may still happen though, of course

The way i see things; if OXR is not taken over; it will be a $10billion company by 2008 when PH starts production; thats $7.70 per share


----------



## nizar

NettAssets said:
			
		

> It will be an interesting time
> 
> Oxiana is already a bit overvalued campared to the other Aussie goldies




Nice one; CBH is a great stock

I dont know what makes u think OXR is overvalued compared to say; LHG; maybe u should look at per share earnings; maybe that will reveal a bit more than the charts...


----------



## clowboy

Nizar,

What is your per share earnings for OXR?

Thanx


----------



## michael_selway

clowboy said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> What is your per share earnings for OXR?
> 
> Thanx




Previous Close 52 week high 52 week low 
3.11 3.82 0.92 
P/E Ratio 
14.39 
Sector 
Materials 
Market Capital 
$4,291 million  

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 34.7 26.5 25.5 
DPS 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 34.7 9.0 521.9% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 26.5 11.7 -23.6% 

thx

MS


----------



## nizar

clowboy said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> What is your per share earnings for OXR?
> 
> Thanx




I reckon 38cps for FY2006

The consensus earnings (as posted by MS) is now pretty close at 34.7cps; as this has been upgraded several times in the last few months as i remember it being in the 20s


----------



## noirua

Oxiana's Quarterly Radio Report from Mr Owen Hegarty, MD, who appears very upbeat: http://www.brr.com.au/event/OXR/1054/12531


----------



## Rafa

MARKET TALK:ML Lumps Oxiana, Ainsworth, Nylex Among Trash	21/07/06 13:02:00


  1302  [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch HK-based analyst Spencer White, convinced Asian equity markets are going to re-test lows, says now is the time to sort and sift "through the trash". Among this group of 10 that White says are "the most toxic looking" are three Australian stocks: Oxiana (OXR.AU), Ainsworth Gaming (AGI.AU), and Nylex (NLX.AU). Advises "stick with the quality" for next 6 months, including local retailer Woolworths (WOW.AU).    (IGP) 

Contact us in Sydney. 61 2 8235 2950; 
MarketTalk@dowjones.com


----------



## Rafa

MARKET TALK: Merrill Lynch Lifts Oxiana Holding	21/07/06 14:25:00


  1425  [Dow Jones] No sooner than Merrill Lynch HK-based analyst Spencer White urges investors to sort, sift "through the trash," specifically citing Oxiana
(OXR.AU) among "the most toxic looking" of Australian stocks, than shareholder
notice pops up from Merrill Lynch Australia, on behalf of various ML units,
advising of lift in holding to 172.6 million shares representing 12.50% of OXR
from 151.86 million shares or 11.07% previously. OXR down 3.4% at A$3.17 on
trading of 4.6 million shares. (RCB) 


WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON!!!


----------



## nizar

Rafa

What is going on is what always happens

Brokers talk down a stock; it becomes cheap; and they pick up a few

I wouldnt be suprised if Merril Lynch upgraded its recommendation on OXR in the next few weeks leading upto August 25th half-yearly

Remember; every1 in this world is out to make money FOR THEMSELVES

I recall somebody asked me a few months ago in May when commodities were going down: "Marc Faber doesnt know what hes talking about. 2 weeks ago he said Commodities would fall by 30%, and now hes saying we're only at the beginning of a super-cycle (by that time they had somewhat recovered)

I said: "No, he knows exactly what hes talking about. He probably made millions these last 2 weeks"


----------



## snapper_man

A couple more points about Oxiana. 
Oxiana will always track the long/med term expectation price of Copper and zinc as much as the all ords. Current price indicators provide a barometer for sentiment about longer term prices but that is about it. If anybody has a crystal ball out there I would like to borrow it.
I have been spending a fair bit of time lately looking at metal analysts reports. I am amazed how quickly sentiment fluctuates. Quite often as a reaction to current prices. 
Oxiana has been focusing on a couple of great projects recently. Prominent Hill is a monster and is certainly underpriced currently to OXR - look out when the report comes out. The Sepon Copper expansion is interesting - basically doubling sepon output from 60K to 110K+. This expansion seems to be underpinned by drilling and an expansion of the resource at Thengkham. No real news in the latest quarterly about this. But I expect some news at some stage this year possibly in the half year financials. 

Cheers
T.


----------



## coyotte

With the US Building in recesion and monertry tighting world wide , one would presume that the demand for base metals must decline 
copper Sept Fut held support @ 233 on Friday -- would presume that failure to rally above 233 would spell the end for OXR -- short to med term

China & India may be forging ahead , but can they make up the shortfall if US & EU are removed 

Love the stock-- but know when a leave of absence is required  --- YOU CAN ALLWAYS JUMP BACK IN


Cheers


----------



## nizar

coyotte said:
			
		

> With the US Building in recesion and monertry tighting world wide , one would presume that the demand for base metals must decline
> copper Sept Fut held support @ 233 on Friday -- would presume that failure to rally above 233 would spell the end for OXR -- short to med term
> 
> China & India may be forging ahead , but can they make up the shortfall if US & EU are removed
> 
> Love the stock-- but know when a leave of absence is required  --- YOU CAN ALLWAYS JUMP BACK IN
> 
> 
> Cheers




Brother i hate to break it to you but the slowdown in US housing did not begin overnight but in fact since the beginning of the year; and the US has been raising interest rates for the last 1.5 years... but where has the OXR share price gone during this time?? Hmmm....

Gold will shoot up in the 2nd half and that LME zinc stockpile isnt getting any larger.... People when they talk about OXR they talk copper and gold copper and gold; the forget about ZINC; which will perhaps become its most PROFITABLE commodity as we get nearer to 2007....

And dont forget PH BFS almost done and the half year financials i suspect will show NPAT of us$200-220million; and that will have analysts all upgrading their forecasts and recommendations

But good luck to you; u may well be right and u have good points; but for me (because of the above mentioned reasons) just before reporting season is not the ideal time to be selling OXR....


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> With the US Building in recesion and monertry tighting world wide , one would presume that the demand for base metals must decline
> copper Sept Fut held support @ 233 on Friday -- would presume that failure to rally above 233 would spell the end for OXR -- short to med term
> 
> China & India may be forging ahead , but can they make up the shortfall if US & EU are removed
> 
> Love the stock-- but know when a leave of absence is required  --- YOU CAN ALLWAYS JUMP BACK IN
> 
> 
> Cheers



Coyotte
I emailed my very good friend David Tweed and he said he would be extremely willing to offer you an exceptionally fair price for your OXR holding.
Indeed, he willingly has decided to extend his offer to all stock holders.
Oh how I love him so!
He even volunteered to remove those ghastly sunnies for his next TV interview.


----------



## snapper_man

Coyote - I'm not to sure where you've got your figures from. The US Federal Reserve is considering more interest rate rises so I dont think they have come across them yet.
Oxiana is set to double capacity when P.H. comes online, incredibly this may well be financed solely by cash flows during the construction phase - WOW! Infact might have a bit of spare cash for sepon expansion during the same period. Throw in Sepon Primary gold project and and Oxiana could be 2.5 times larger in terms of production in a mere 2.5 years. I expect at this time some other projects will be bubbling away. Oxiana has some great alliances with several explorers, hopefully something great will be thrown up. Especially if metal prices (long term) remain strong Oxiana should be in a position of great strength to continue growing.
At this stage I am definately sticking with them.


----------



## dubiousinfo

coyotte said:
			
		

> With the US Building in recesion and monertry tighting world wide , one would presume that the demand for base metals must decline
> copper Sept Fut held support @ 233 on Friday -- would presume that failure to rally above 233 would spell the end for OXR -- short to med term
> 
> China & India may be forging ahead , but can they make up the shortfall if US & EU are removed
> 
> Love the stock-- but know when a leave of absence is required  --- YOU CAN ALLWAYS JUMP BACK IN
> 
> 
> Cheers




Coyote
It's only residential building that has slowed. Non-residential has not shown any signs of easing to date with the first 2 quarters higher than the same time last year.


----------



## coyotte

Stired up a hornests nest

Copper in virtually non existant in modern building -- except for electrics , been replaced by plastics. 

Fair more important is a down turn in residential construction & auto sales  allways leads to downturn in the overall economy.



The response to this post is what makes me wary of OXR -- TOO MUCH EMOTION 
 OXR may continue to rise long term ,but  for the short to medium term both Price & T/A action point otherwise    

The whole situation seems totally different to when Greenspan was in the chair , then every rise in int/rates pushed the markets higher -- now reality seems to be setting in.


There seems to be a contradiction going on with Gold Stocks & and the Main Indexs --- Gold stocks long term run opposing the general markets , @ the moment they are running with the markets -- which leads to the me suspect that a lot of holders of the Gold Miners are new to this sector -- it not untill this mob is flushed out -- probably this Aug then a final clean out in  Oct/Nov  will we see a genuine return to the miners  


Cheers


----------



## YELNATS

I'm confident we'll see OXR at $4 by end Aug and at $5 at Christmas 2006. Just gut feel, but so far they haven't let me down. Regards YN.


----------



## blinkau

I picked up some more at $3.06 today, and if it goes down further? Just a better opportunity to get some more   

The next few months will be interesting


----------



## crayfish

coyotte said:
			
		

> There seems to be a contradiction going on with Gold Stocks & and the Main Indexs --- Gold stocks long term run opposing the general markets , @ the moment they are running with the markets -- which leads to the me suspect that a lot of holders of the Gold Miners are new to this sector -- it not untill this mob is flushed out -- probably this Aug then a final clean out in  Oct/Nov  will we see a genuine return to the miners
> 
> Cheers




OXR is no longer just a gold stock


----------



## nizar

crayfish said:
			
		

> OXR is no longer just a gold stock




Agree

In fact; only about 10% of OXR's EBIT is from gold...

Then about 55% copper; and 35% zinc


----------



## dubiousinfo

nizar said:
			
		

> Agree
> 
> In fact; only about 10% of OXR's EBIT is from gold...
> 
> Then about 55% copper; and 35% zinc




Unfortunately for OXR not enough people properly read reports and research stocks. So in a lot of peoples minds this will still be a gold stock.
Facts seem to be irrelevant to many.


----------



## rederob

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Unfortunately for OXR not enough people properly read reports and research stocks. So in a lot of peoples minds this will still be a gold stock.
> Facts seem to be irrelevant to many.



Facts also change, sometimes often.
When gold is over $1000 next year I wonder how the results will stack up for this unhedged producer.


----------



## michael_selway

nizar said:
			
		

> Agree
> 
> In fact; only about 10% of OXR's EBIT is from gold...
> 
> Then about 55% copper; and 35% zinc




Hi are these %s recent?

will the future be different?

thx

MS


----------



## nizar

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi are these %s recent?
> 
> will the future be different?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




see my earlier post estimating their EBIT for the june quarter

if GG zinc cash costs per lb didnt rise so much (from 21c/lb to 39c/lb); in fact zinc would have been closer to 50% of the total

in the future likely to be different as sepon copper increases (2009) and of course in 2008 PH will add to gold and copper production so as a % zinc will go down


----------



## snapper_man

Diggers and dealers presentation ..... 

http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/presentations/2006/diggersanddealers_aug06.pdf


No new news but may interest some ....


----------



## noirua

snapper_man said:
			
		

> Diggers and dealers presentation .....
> 
> http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/presentations/2006/diggersanddealers_aug06.pdf
> 
> 
> No new news but may interest some ....




Oxiana have moved on very well and look an excellent investment. The only downside is the high risk sector at this heavy market cap.


----------



## nizar

noirua said:
			
		

> The only downside is the high risk sector at this heavy market cap.




u can only say whether a stock is heavy relative to its earnings

bhp market cap is 90billion, is it heavy? no of course not since it will earn like 15billion NPAT this year

oxr is looking pretty featherweight to me, market cap of 4.2billion and will earn 500million NPAT in 2006..

but do ur research...


----------



## TheFlash

Hi All,

Just after opinion here... What thoughts have you on the recent down trend in this stock, it's taken a heavy turn downwards over the last few weeks but my logic can't place it.

Considering Mid East tension, Oil etc... the Markets have taken a general hit, but OXR has seemed to establish a trend.

Bought some at 3.11 feeling that with an expected positive report coming out at the end of the month it may gather some confidence...

Any thoughts on this as well as how far you think it still has to go?

Billy


----------



## coyotte

TheFlash said:
			
		

> Hi All,
> 
> Just after opionion here... What thoughts have you on the recent down trend in this stock, it's taken a heavy turn downwards over the last few weeks but my logic can't place it.
> 
> Considering Mid East tension, Oil etc... the Markets have taken a general hit, but OXR has seemed to establish a trend.
> 
> Bought some at 3.11 feeling that with an expected positive report coming out at the end of the month it may gather some confidence...
> 
> Any thoughts on this as well as how far you think it still has to go?
> 
> Billy




Bollinger Bands are indicating a rapid rise from here (could be down tomorrow) then UP

Doji formed Friday but needs to be confirmed today -- looks like there could be a doji set up today 

Has set itself up for a short term finger trade ( UP)


Any rebound will probably be short lived though --- to many Sellers


----------



## rederob

Accumulate OXR under $3
It's a long term play for a world class company that is undervalued on the basis of its present resources.
Given OXR's exploration budget and its highly peospective properties, it is difficult to conceive that the company will not be able to significantly add to mineral assets in the near future.
Oddly, OXR seems not to have a takeover premium on its stock price.
This could change rapidly as mergers and acquisitions in the mining industry are gathering a head of steam.


----------



## Phoenix

Bought in at 2.80 for a short term trade sell at above $3


----------



## bvbfan

Possible that the profit report may fall short of expectations due to the error in the cost of production figures in the 1st quarter report for Golden Grove.

Also warning from Owen that Prominent Hill may come in above cost estimates (20%-30%?)

I am buying for a trading parcel, hold long term parcels for $4 min.

Also don't rule out takeover potential, bids would need to be in mid $3 range as a minimum I feel but may not eventuate for years (I hope)


----------



## nizar

Agree 

Big instos will never let this get below $2.50


----------



## tour

OXR down, even with a bigger % today. 6 days striaght even with strong turnover figures. current copper inventory increasing not helping, hopefully BHP strike will kick in soon


----------



## coyotte

rederob said:
			
		

> Coyotte
> I emailed my very good friend David Tweed and he said he would be extremely willing to offer you an exceptionally fair price for your OXR holding.
> Indeed, he willingly has decided to extend his offer to all stock holders.
> Oh how I love him so!
> He even volunteered to remove those ghastly sunnies for his next TV interview.




E-mail hasn't arrived yet !


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> E-mail hasn't arrived yet !



What!
I am shocked.
Who can one trust nowadays?


Tell you what, if you are holding any OXR shares I will buy them instead.
Can offer full market price plus 20%.
Will send you an immediate *cheque * for 10% of value and remainder in equal annual instalments.
Deal?


----------



## coyotte

Covered SHORTS nears close ( been SHORT since late July-- Bear Flag was the final Trigger to SHORT)

Could be a S/T rebound into mid-Sept

Cheers


----------



## TheFlash

rederob said:
			
		

> What!
> I am shocked.
> Who can one trust nowadays?
> 
> 
> Tell you what, if you are holding any OXR shares I will buy them instead.
> Can offer full market price plus 20%.
> Will send you an immediate *cheque *for 10% of value and remainder in equal annual instalments.
> Deal?




Sure, you can have mine


----------



## NettAssets

TheFlash said:
			
		

> I'm here to learn, make wise judgment and to create wealth...



Whoops......you just failed


----------



## TheFlash

NettAssets said:
			
		

> Whoops......you just failed




it was a joke... I have confidence that there will be a turn upwards in the near future, I should've waited a little longer before buying in... It's experience and education at the least...


----------



## michael_selway

nizar said:
			
		

> Agree
> 
> Big instos will never let this get below $2.50




Forward Terminal PE of 10

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 34.8 26.9 24.2 
DPS 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 34.8 8.0 523.7% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 26.9 10.4 -22.7% 

So 2.5 is about right

thx

MS


----------



## rederob

TheFlash said:
			
		

> it was a joke... I have confidence that there will be a turn upwards in the near future, I should've waited a little longer before buying in... It's experience and education at the least...



Flash
I was buying OXR back in 2004 when everyone was saying it was going nowhere.
When you buy into value you get rewarded.
I have never sold any of my OXR shares and they are presently worth almost $150k - over twice what I paid.
I pay little attention to short term movements and would be buying more OXR but for the fact it's greater than 10% of my portfolio.
Gold, silver and oil will take off in the next quarter so I reckon it's just a matter of holding on.


----------



## coyotte

The Flash

Unless you are "day trading " OXR  I would strongly suggest that you wait untill  
it has cleared it's count-back ( from today's low to friday's high $2.92 ) before entering as a long --- untill then OXR    is still a SHORT --- OXR has a good history with count-back

I only  hedged my SHORTS today because OXR's recent history suggests that a decline below the Bollinger bands ( 20*2.0 ) will lead to a rapid S/T recovery


Can't see why $2.50 is a support level ,--- PE,s of mining stocks seem to be im'material


Cheers


----------



## nizar

coyotte said:
			
		

> Can't see why $2.50 is a support level




Because it bounced off it last time?

But my TA is far more inferior compared to yours

Can u perhaps enlighten us as to what u believe to be support levels?


----------



## coyotte

nizar said:
			
		

> Because it bounced off it last time?
> 
> But my TA is far more inferior compared to yours
> 
> Can u perhaps enlighten us as to what u believe to be support levels?





Nothing to do with inferior/superior Nizar -- it's about probability.

OXR's recent Lows were $2.53 & $2.43 both on relativey HIGH volume
Both had neutral / low Acc/Dist  
Both had breached the lower Bollinger Bands

This time round is on LOW relative volume
High and increasing distribution
BUT has breached the lower Bollinger Bands --- this is why I suspect a S/T
rebound (dead cat bounce) ---- there has not been enough volume yet for the eventual low -- where ever that is.

Cheers


----------



## havingfun

Radio commentary this morning said Prominent Hill Mine to be given final tick by Government any day , any idea what effect this will have on price or has this already been factored in????


----------



## crayfish

Did everyone see this on the web site? A bit of industry recognition for the Ox:

_*Oxiana wins "Digger of the Year" Award*

Congratulations to all at Oxiana!

Last night Oxiana won "Digger of the Year" Award at the annual Diggers and Dealers Conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. 

Managing Director Owen Hegarty was honoured to receive the award. "This is a magnificent award. It is appreciated and valued and will be prized by all at the Mighty Ox. Thanks to all the Oxiana people they do a great job and I am proud of each and every one of them. Thank you to the judging panel for their profound wisdom and foresight".

In announcing Oxiana's award, Diggers and Dealers chairman Brian Hurley said Oxiana had "focused on a multiple commodity strategy and has without doubt established itself as having a significant future as a leader in the Australian resources sector". 

Oxiana was a very popular choice for the award with the announcement being met by much cheering from the attendees. 

*Oxiana was the best performing stock in the ASX 100 index over the 2005/2006 financial year.*

Owen concluded his speech by saying "some people have said to me that when you start winning these awards it is the beginning of the end. But like Winston Churchill said I think "this is just the end of the beginning" and as far as we are concerned the best is yet to come! On behalf of all of us at the Mighty Ox, thank you for this prestigious recognition."

 10 August 2006_
_______________________________

"this is just the end of the beginning" is analagous to his football game terminology...entering the second quarter.

Onwards and upwards...


----------



## rwkni1

The Ox is gonna fly next week.
BHP has just announced the closure of Escondida after unionised workers blockaded the mine enterance stopping contract workers from entering.
Copper will go nuts today on the LME, and unless there is a serious change in the way both parties are approaching the wage talks at Escondida, this strike could go for weeks to come.
Should be very interesting.


----------



## crayfish

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> The Ox is gonna fly next week.
> BHP has just announced the closure of Escondida after unionised workers blockaded the mine enterance stopping contract workers from entering.
> Copper will go nuts today on the LME, and unless there is a serious change in the way both parties are approaching the wage talks at Escondida, this strike could go for weeks to come.
> Should be very interesting.





WOW! Cheers rwkni1. This is BIG news for copper. Watch it fly. Hold on to your seats boys and girls:


*BHP Billiton closes Escondida mine ops
August 18, 2006 - 4:10PM*

_BHP Billiton Ltd has closed operations at the world's biggest copper mine and terminated negotiations with striking workers, opting instead to take legal action against the union.

The world's biggest diversified miner said union workers, seeking larger share of the benefits of spiralling copper prices, had blocked all access roads to the Escondida mine, located in Chile's Atacama Desert.

"This heightened union activity means we no longer feel that we are able to unequivocally guarantee the health and safety of our people or the integrity of the operations, infrastructure," said spokeswoman Emma Meade.

"As a result, Minera Escondida has today closed its operations and ceased negotiations with the union."

BHP said it will not negotiate with the union while it is carrying out "illegal activity".

"We will be taking legal action against the union to resolve this," Ms Meade said.

"We will only reopen the operations and restart negotiations when we are comfortable that we can guarantee the health and safety of our people and the integrity of the operations."

BHP Billiton said earlier this month that the strike action over pay at Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, had slashed operating capacity to 40 per cent.

Suspension of cathode production also led to the mining giant declaring a force majeure on its copper concentrate contracts.

A force majeure is a contract clause that would free it from its contractual obligations due to an extraordinary event beyond its control.

Of the mine's 2,930 permanent staff, 2,052 are union members.

Earlier this month workers rejected an offer of three-year contracts including a three per cent rise in pay and bonuses.

It was an improvement over an earlier offer for a 1.5 per cent raise, along with a bonus and low-interest loans, but fell substantially short of a 13 per cent raise and $US30,000 ($A39,408.87) net bonus per worker the union was seeking.

BHP, due to release its annual results on Wednesday, is the operator of the mine with a 57.5 per cent stake while Rio Tinto holds a 30 per cent share._


----------



## dubiousinfo

OXR is due to report tomorrow & given the strong result by both BHP & ZFX, I had expected stronger support over the last few days.

Using just rough numbers, ZFX earnt nearly $1.1 Bn or $2.20/Shr at a P/E of around 5. It had an average zinc sell price of under US$0.90 a pound in the year just reported. The price of Zinc could drop 40% and ZFX would still report a similar profit next year. At anything near current prices its profit for this year could be $1.5 Bn or $3.00/Shr.

The markets lack of support for the profits being reported by the miners is disappointing.

I know prices cant stay at this level forever, but I really cant see a major collapse in the next 10 months.


----------



## michael_selway

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> It had an average zinc sell price of under US$0.90 a pound in the year just reported. The price of Zinc could drop 40% and ZFX would still report a similar profit next year. At anything near current prices its profit for this year could be $1.5 Bn or $3.00/Shr.




Hi how did u get an estimate of $1.5 Bn NPAT for thsi year

thx

MS


----------



## clowboy

he means this year as in the year that started 1/7/06


----------



## dubiousinfo

Clowboy is correct, I was referring to the financial year 1/7/06 to 30/6/07.


----------



## crayfish

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> The markets lack of support for the profits being reported by the miners is disappointing.



Agreed. The latest figures are sensational.

But here's some positive news:

_*Oxiana in vogue for brokers * 

Michael Quinn
Tuesday, 29 August 2006

CITIGROUP and Goldman Sachs JBWere remain fans of the Oxiana story, while Credit Suisse has come along for the ride albeit with caveats aplenty.

At a $2.85 share price following the strong half year results last week, Credit Suisse has increased its rating for Oxiana from Neutral to Outperform, citing the stock's relative underperformance since early this month against the S&P/ASX 200.

Credit Suisse also said it thought "earnings strength and reasonable valuation" are sufficient to justify the increased rating, but aside from these comments and one or two others, there was no overly positive tone to the broker's report.

It said Oxiana was "for true believers in resources", the corollary being that "the risk of sub-economic returns over the long term on capex deployed now, with a view to a return from 2008-on, is elevated".

It was also cautious on the three key drivers for Oxiana – copper and zinc prices, operational performance, organic growth delivery – commenting that metal price momentum appears to have plateaued; operational performance has "shown slippage from a cost and production perspective", and organic growth delivery has been "slower than promised and at materially higher costs than forecast".

GSJBW's take was far more positive, headlining its analyst note with "Delivery on Promises" and tagging the stock a short-term Outperform and a long-term Buy.

GSJBW said a key feature of the half year result – comprising an above-consensus $263.3 million net profit – was the cash generating ability of Oxiana and its consequent "ability to internally fund a significant portion of planned developments over the next five years".

Citigroup sanguinely headlined its note "'Making hay while the sun shines' now upgraded to 'printing cash'", and said the half-year result was "an absolute cracker".

It had an unchanged "buy" recommendation on Oxiana, with a slightly increased target price of $3.97._

(from MiningNews.net)


----------



## TheFlash

Whats happening with OXR? I would've thought that the last reporting figures would have truned this stock upwards but it's remaining sluggish. Also, today was dissapointing, considering BHP got somewhat of a lift from copper prices and the US market I would have thought that OXR may have taged along as well. 

Any thoughts?


----------



## YELNATS

As a holder of OXR I'm wondering the same thing. But I remain patient and a true OXR believer. Regards YN


----------



## michael_selway

TheFlash said:
			
		

> Whats happening with OXR? I would've thought that the last reporting figures would have truned this stock upwards but it's remaining sluggish. Also, today was dissapointing, considering BHP got somewhat of a lift from copper prices and the US market I would have thought that OXR may have taged along as well.
> 
> Any thoughts?




Basically hard to see Copper prices goign up from here sustainably, as LME supplies increase

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 34.5 26.9 24.2 
DPS 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 

So Forward Terminal PE of 10 = $2.5 about how much they are worth currently

thx

MS


----------



## nizar

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Basically hard to see Copper prices goign up from here sustainably, as LME supplies increase
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 5.6 34.5 26.9 24.2
> DPS 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.5
> 
> So Forward Terminal PE of 10 = $2.5 about how much they are worth currently
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




bro can u 4get about forward terminal pe, 
prominent hill isnt even considered in those forecasts and that will double copper production and almost double gold production and who knows how much gold will be worth in those days
zinc is just as important to OXR than copper is, its amazing how people still think its a copper/gold play


----------



## haemitite

nizar said:
			
		

> bro can u 4get about forward terminal pe,
> prominent hill isnt even considered in those forecasts and that will double copper production and almost double gold production and who knows how much gold will be worth in those days
> zinc is just as important to OXR than copper is, its amazing how people still think its a copper/gold play




Well, I'm wondering if its time to take a nice profit on this one

The capex blowout has Prominent Hill looking very marginal. And high grading of Sepon is a concern.


----------



## dubiousinfo

haemitite said:
			
		

> Well, I'm wondering if its time to take a nice profit on this one
> 
> The capex blowout has Prominent Hill looking very marginal. And high grading of Sepon is a concern.





The capex for Prominent Hill has increased as all costs have for miners, however, none of the figures I have seen put out to date suggest it will be marginal.

What figures are you using?


----------



## rederob

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> The capex for Prominent Hill has increased as all costs have for miners, however, none of the figures I have seen put out to date suggest it will be marginal.
> 
> What figures are you using?



Marginal is good!
Prominent Hill to produce at a copper cash cost under 80cents/lb (after silver/gold credits) and churn out over 200million pounds of copper per year for the first 4 years, then about 150milion pounds for the next 6 years.
Lets assume copper prices average about $3/lb (presently $3.40) and cash costs average $1/lb to give us a neat margin.
That gives Prominent Hill an output of 1.5b pounds of copper at $2 margin for a return of $3b.
That's the kind of margin I can live with.

By the way, Prominent Hill has further exploration upside, so the baseline numbers could change for the better and mine life could extend well beyond 10 years.


----------



## haemitite

rederob said:
			
		

> Marginal is good!
> Prominent Hill to produce at a copper cash cost under 80cents/lb (after silver/gold credits) and churn out over 200million pounds of copper per year for the first 4 years, then about 150milion pounds for the next 6 years.
> Lets assume copper prices average about $3/lb (presently $3.40) and cash costs average $1/lb to give us a neat margin.
> That gives Prominent Hill an output of 1.5b pounds of copper at $2 margin for a return of $3b.
> That's the kind of margin I can live with.
> 
> By the way, Prominent Hill has further exploration upside, so the baseline numbers could change for the better and mine life could extend well beyond 10 years.




OXR are building in a hot market and then hoping like hell the Cu price stays up. $3/lb  in the long term ... hmmmm

Citigroup now have an NPV for PH of less than $100M. As the capex is a touch under A$800M that return is looking very thin, especially as capex will still have a upwards skew.

Sure there should be some resource upside, but remember that the PH grade and mine life weren't good enough to keep BHP interested

PH sounds good in the media blurbs but it isn't the crash hot project some believe.

I've held onto OXR for their zinc exposure, thinking about pulling the pin on this one now but I'm in the fortunate(unfortunate?) position of not having a capital loss to use against it.


----------



## nizar

I too, have my doubts about PH and the earnings outlook for OXR, as every1 probably knows, in the past i was very bullish on this stock

They will spend $775million on CapEx for PH

I tried to work out an earnings estimate for CY2009 (the first full year of PH production and this is what i came up with:

Oxiana's EBITDA for FY2008:

GG: 140,000t zinc at costs of 70c/lb, zinc spot price of 1.20/lb
EBITDA = 140,000*2.2*1000*(1.20-0.70) = 154million
12,000t copper at costs of $1.20/lb, spot price of 2.50/lb
EBITDA = 12,000*2.2*1000*(2.50-1.20) = 34million

Sepon: 60,000t copper at costs of $1.20/lb, spot price of 2.50/lb
EBITDA = 60,000*2.2*1000*(2.50-1.20) = 171million
170,000oz gold at costs of $500/oz, spot price of $1,000/oz
EBITDA = 170,000*(1000-500) = 85million

PH: 85,000t copper at costs of $1.20/lb, spot price of 2.50/lb
EBITDA = 85,000*2.2*1000*(2.50-1.20) = 243million
115,000oz gold at costs of $500/oz, spot price of $1,000/oz
EBITDA = 115,000*(1000-500) = 58million

Therefore, total EBITDA = 770million

Considering the half yearly financials released last week, they had EBITDA of 400million for the half year, with Hegarty commenting the 2nd half will probably be similar.

So, we must ask the question, even with PH, since costs will inevitable rise, and metals especially copper, will be in oversupply by next year and will fall, this all means that Oxiana's earnings outlook, the CY2009 NPAT to be the same as CY2006.... there doesnt seem to be much upside left in the sp to grow, because fundamentally, if earnings dont go up, sp wont be going anywhere....

Of course the black horse here is toro, with OXR's 25% stake, it has exposure to the uranium debate, but toro's results were such a joke i dont even know if u can call a holding in toro a positive..~! LOL\

The above is only my own guesstimates, but i think copper will be around 2.50, and it has already peaked at 4.00/lb in May... stocks starting to rise now... zinc though hasnt peaked yet, but probably will in the next 6 or so months at perhaps $2+/lb, and then fall back to 1.20 IMO in 2 years from now... gold, not that could be a suprise, but i dont think it going to 1,000/oz without having higher oil prices and therefore costs, and consequently, thats why i think costs will be 30-40% higher than they are today...

So rising costs and falling metal prices; sadly, it doesnt paint such a rosy picture for the outlook of the (once?) mighty Ox...

Though any production increase, exploration success, takeover, merger, could pump up the sp...

Rederob, please tell me im wrong or that im missing something...


----------



## rederob

haemitite said:
			
		

> OXR are building in a hot market and then hoping like hell the Cu price stays up. $3/lb  in the long term ... hmmmm
> 
> Citigroup now have an NPV for PH of less than $100M. As the capex is a touch under A$800M that return is looking very thin, especially as capex will still have a upwards skew.
> 
> Sure there should be some resource upside, but remember that the PH grade and mine life weren't good enough to keep BHP interested
> 
> PH sounds good in the media blurbs but it isn't the crash hot project some believe.
> 
> I've held onto OXR for their zinc exposure, thinking about pulling the pin on this one now but I'm in the fortunate(unfortunate?) position of not having a capital loss to use against it.



If you believe Citibank then you might as well sell OXR now, as on those numbers it is not worth it.
BHP's interest or otherwise is now irrelevant.
Prominent hill is second only to Olympic Dam in terms of global copper/gold orebodies ranked by total equivalent copper grade, and this list has Grasberg and Escondida 4th and 5th respectively.
There are only 5 major new (world class) copper mines hitting production in the next 2 years, 2 in 2009, and quite afew thereafter. So I don't think oversupply is going to be a concern for a while. 
During August global copper inventories should have rebuilt significantly: They did not.
I expect market tightness to increase markedly over the next 3-6 months and will not be surprised to see copper hit 500cents/lb before its next bout of consolidation.
I also believe zinc prices have a long way to go, so don't consider OXR as a "sell" until the tide turns.

nizar
We are trying to guesstimate copper prices too far ahead of present market sentiment, so my simple use of numbers - in the earlier post - was on a lower copper price and a higher prodiction cost.  Halve the copper price again and one still gets a decent return.
An aspect that pundits are reluctant to consider is that markets can actually tighten in the next few years: Everyone keeps saying we will run into "oversupply". Well, they forecast that in 2005 and were wrong, and their forecast thus far is still not on the money in 2006. Could they also be wrong in 2007?
I think there is a chance, maybe not 50:50, but not an unreasonable chance.


----------



## haemitite

rederob said:
			
		

> If you believe Citibank then you might as well sell OXR now, as on those numbers it is not worth it.
> BHP's interest or otherwise is now irrelevant.
> Prominent hill is second only to Olympic Dam in terms of global copper/gold orebodies ranked by total equivalent copper grade, and this list has Grasberg and Escondida 4th and 5th respectively.




Thats exactly the point isn't it - on consensus copper price forecasts PH is marginal.  It needs your $3/lb to match the hype 

The total equivalent copper you quote from the OXR website shows it to be a decent grade but hardly miles ahead of Escondida, Graser etc. 

But BHP interest *was * very relevant as it didn't meet their criteria of a first tier deposit - PH is small, less than 100Mt. 

Plus this chart doesn't gell that well with other reports - Oyu Tolgoi for example claims measured and indicated resources of 1500Mt at > 1.50% Cu equiv (including the first major underground mining areaat 580Mt and 2.15% Cu equiv). The OXR chart puts them at around 1.20%Cu equiv so god knows how this info has been extracted. Funnily enogh, Oyo Tolgoi claims to be the worlds next major copper ang gold mine

PH is not a growth driver for OXR.


----------



## nizar

haemitite said:
			
		

> But BHP interest *was * very relevant as it didn't meet their criteria of a first tier deposit - PH is small, less than 100Mt.




BHP have more than they could ever ask for at Olympic Dam

Just wait until september 19th, the new resource estimate for Olympic Dam will be in their annual report.
What do u think would be NPV of 1million tonnes of Cu, and 40,000tonnes of U production annually from 2010 and a mine life of 100 years?
Probably not far from 100billion, their current market cap

With a monster like that, no wonder they werent interested in PH

I generally agree with what you are saying though, PH is not the gem we all thought it was. Copper prices its hard to believe will still be above $3 by 2nd half of 2008.... even in super cycles u have peaks and troughs...


----------



## haemitite

nizar said:
			
		

> BHP have more than they could ever ask for at Olympic Dam




BHP passed up on PH well before they took over WMCR.


----------



## rederob

I can only suggest that haemitite gets to understand the difference between contained metal *and * orebody.
Then he needs to work out the extent that byproduct credits affect the profitability of the orebody, plus the impact of low arsenic content.  For this latter point I sugest he looks at how badly the massive Telfer project has done due to high arsenic grades.
He needs to put the history of Prominent Hill behind him and look only at the future profitability of the project.


----------



## haemitite

rederob said:
			
		

> He needs to put the history of Prominent Hill behind him and look only at the future profitability of the project.




hmmm, back to the start looking at some not so historical points.

PH is a decent grade but is a relatively small mineable reserve - tick
The capex has blown out - tick
Valuation models have it just a touch above NPV neutrality  - tick
PH  still faces project execution risk - tick

I hold just a touch under 50K of OXR stock so I'm hardly an uninterested observer. But I'm also open minded enough to put forward that the PH emperor doesn't have any clothes.


----------



## snapper_man

The fact that BHP passed over PH is totally irrelevant. Oxiana picked up Sepon from Rio, wise decision I think so. Golden Grove from Newmont, umm not a bad one there either I would think. The comparison with BHP is interesting. BHP is a great company and I believe are underpriced. I dont know where the 100 year mine life comes in though, where do you get your figures from? OXIana is kicking **** at the moment and can fund PH from cash flows from this year alone. Basically doubling production from organic growth, BHP cannot do this. 
Do not be fooled by the current PH resource figures. These are the 'go ahead' figures and the resource will be upgraded substantially in the coming months. 
Any other projects I hear you ask? A couple in there own back yards. Sepon Primary ore gold resource which is deeper than the sulphide resource. Only a lazy 2 million odd ounces. Feasability will be out in the coming months. Also Oxiana are continually finding more copper at sepon are infact currently undertaking a feasability study to double production based on an expanded resource.


----------



## rederob

haemitite said:
			
		

> PH is a decent grade but is a relatively small mineable reserve - tick
> The capex has blown out - tick
> Valuation models have it just a touch above NPV neutrality  - tick
> PH  still faces project execution risk - tick




If you hold that quantity of OXR then you should know better.
Check your facts on PH in terms of "mineable reserve" and tell me/us how many larger projects are likely to come on stream before end of 2008.
Is there something about "world class" that you don't understand?
The capex of every mining project in the world has recently blown out - so what's new?  At least OXR has recently revised its numbers so there is a reasonable chance their project will reflect actual costs as distinct from  projects that are not as advanced - check out Oyu Tolgoi's most recent numbers and compare to PH. Bottom line is that OXR has given the project the go-ahead.
Valuation models continue to be conservatively based and do not reflect the present price of copper.  You would be wise to try some figures of your own rather than rely on other's.  Even ABARE, which hasn't got close to picking the forward price of metals, has copper prices over $2/lb in 2008.
As for the "execution risk", you have to be kidding!!! Mining in South Australia is about as safe and friendly as it is possible to get.
But if you are not, would you like to explain what risks they are.


----------



## haemitite

rederob said:
			
		

> If you hold that quantity of OXR then you should know better.
> Check your facts on PH in terms of "mineable reserve" and tell me/us how many larger projects are likely to come on stream before end of 2008.
> Is there something about "world class" that you don't understand?
> The capex of every mining project in the world has recently blown out - so what's new?  At least OXR has recently revised its numbers so there is a reasonable chance their project will reflect actual costs as distinct from  projects that are not as advanced - check out Oyu Tolgoi's most recent numbers and compare to PH. Bottom line is that OXR has given the project the go-ahead.
> Valuation models continue to be conservatively based and do not reflect the present price of copper.  You would be wise to try some figures of your own rather than rely on other's.  Even ABARE, which hasn't got close to picking the forward price of metals, has copper prices over $2/lb in 2008.
> As for the "execution risk", you have to be kidding!!! Mining in South Australia is about as safe and friendly as it is possible to get.
> But if you are not, would you like to explain what risks they are.





BHPB is bringing on 380,000 tonnes of Cu from Spence and Escondida Norte *this year.* Again, 380,000 tonnes

Ivanhoe own Oyu Tolgoi and not much else. Their market cap is >US$2000B. PH is a 10 year mine, 46% overbudget and close to A$50M NPV. I consider one of those projects world class

you have confused project risk with sovereign risk

Valuation models  do reflect the expectations around the current price - it will go down.

every mining project in the world has blown out ???


----------



## snapper_man

Some great figures flying around, 100 year mine lives. $US2,000 billion company valuations! 

How do you come to $50 million NPV for PH?

Can someone post a copy of the Citibank report?


----------



## rederob

> BHPB is bringing on 380,000 tonnes of Cu from Spence and Escondida Norte *this year.*



Escondida Norte came online in late 2005 and its production figures are integrated into Escondida proper.
Spence may come online in December this year, but certainly will be up and running to ramp up to 200k/year later on.


> Ivanhoe own Oyu Tolgoi and not much else. Their market cap is >US$2000B.



Oyu Tolgoi may be in production late 2008, but more likely in 2009.


> you have confused project risk with sovereign risk



Interesting! The project is going ahead, so the risk issues must have been resolved.  OXR have not needed to go cap in hand to the market to finance this $750m project


> Valuation models  do reflect the expectations around the current price - it will go down.



Valuation models are always extremely conservitive.  If they were not then the share prices of these companies would never increase as their valuations would not have changed.


> every mining project in the world has blown out ???



Not sure of your point here.  Are you saying that only PH has cost overruns?
I would have thought that the additional costs through higher energy, materials and wages, were relatively universally felt.  The advantage OXR has over other greenfield producers that are yet to commit is that OXR has realistically costed its PH project, has now got it underway, and still estimates its copper cash cost as 73cents/lb.

By the way, Frontier and Lumwana are the other large scale projects you might have named that are expected to produce copper some time next year.


----------



## haemitite

You haven't refuted any of my comments that PH is a smallish project that is now marginal after capex blowouts.

When I got to this line I realised that there was little point in continuing to attempt a logical and factual discussion with you


			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Valuation models are always extremely conservitive.  If they were not then the share prices of these companies would never increase as their valuations would not have changed.might have named that are expected to produce copper some time next year.



simply staggering.

snapperman, As you point out below the IVN valuation should have been listed as >US2000M. thx


----------



## dubiousinfo

haemitite,

While you were expousing your views on the poor state of OXR today, it went up over 4%.   

If you still feel it is in such poor shape despite rederob's comments (IMHO he made the better case), then maybe you should sell. Judging by todays volume (10mil), there are plenty of investors ready to take the shares off your hands.


----------



## rederob

haemitite said:
			
		

> You haven't refuted any of my comments that PH is a smallish project that is now marginal after capex blowouts.
> 
> When I got to this line I realised that there was little point in continuing to attempt a logical and factual discussion with you
> simply staggering.



I think this cuts both ways.
I said PH was world class: It is by every standard used in mining industry analysis.
You showed it was small by what comparison?
Only a few comaparably large projects come on line each year.  Yet dozens of smaller ones come and go.
I won't say you know diddly squat, but what you think you know is not a great deal of use to anyone investing or trading.
Your harping on about capex blowouts and project valuations is, frankly, just harping on.
The project has got underway so you can post back in a few years time and claim whatever rightful ground you choose: Until then, it's a bit of a guessing game as to what copper prices will be.
As I said, if we all relied on the valuations of bean counters we would not invest in mining equities *because they we always correctly priced*.
Luckily I believe their are fairies in the bottom of the garden, too.
If you think PH is small, you should have looked at Ertsberg back in the '60's.
In fact the number of operational mines that never added to their resource base after commissioning is negligible.
PH is "open" at depth and OXR will continue an active drilling program to confirm the physical limits of the copper/gold resource.


----------



## haemitite

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> haemitite,
> 
> While you were expousing your views on the poor state of OXR today, it went up over 4%.
> 
> If you still feel it is in such poor shape despite rederob's comments (IMHO he made the better case), then maybe you should sell. Judging by todays volume (10mil), there are plenty of investors ready to take the shares off your hands.




To be fair, I was expressing my views on PH - a small (in my viewpoint, minute) part of the OXR story. I'm more worried about the Sepon gold trend.


----------



## bvbfan

haemitite said:
			
		

> I'm more worried about the Sepon gold trend.




Ok, what's the issue here that is a worry?
The higher costs on a commodity that only makes up about 15% of earnings?


----------



## rederob

By now haemitite should have sold his OXR in a fit of depression over PH's lack of reserves and weak valuation.
That will give mug punters a chance to top up before it rips up the charts again.
Overnight copper reaped its biggest daily gain in yonks, while gold cranked up another $10 to lie at $638 this morning.
I expect OXR will be the best performing stock on the ASX this week, and probably this month if commodities run to their usual pricing pattern.


----------



## haemitite

rederob said:
			
		

> By now haemitite should have sold his OXR in a fit of depression over PH's lack of reserves and weak valuation.
> That will give mug punters a chance to top up before it rips up the charts again.
> Overnight copper reaped its biggest daily gain in yonks, while gold cranked up another $10 to lie at $638 this morning.
> I expect OXR will be the best performing stock on the ASX this week, and probably this month if commodities run to their usual pricing pattern.



Well for the time bring I'm still holding my 16,000 OXR .......

Falling in love with a stock is the worst possible sin an investor can make. When you start filtering information selectively, and the discussion becomes qualitative rather than quantitative its downright ugly

I was interested to see that dubiousinfo thought that you made the better case, interesting because I'm yet to see you provide anything factual on PH other than a grade equivalent comment direct from the OXR website.

But his comments did re-inforce to me that the bulk of people here will be OXR investors that only want to hear the good news about the stock. So rederob I'll leave you be in your world where you keep talking up the OXR price.

<unsubscribing from this thread. Happy to discuss OXR with anyone by PM>


----------



## rederob

haemitite said:
			
		

> Well for the time bring I'm still holding my 16,000 OXR .......
> 
> Falling in love with a stock is the worst possible sin an investor can make. When you start filtering information selectively, and the discussion becomes qualitative rather than quantitative its downright ugly
> 
> I was interested to see that dubiousinfo thought that you made the better case, interesting because I'm yet to see you provide anything factual on PH other than a grade equivalent comment direct from the OXR website.
> 
> But his comments did re-inforce to me that the bulk of people here will be OXR investors that only want to hear the good news about the stock. So rederob I'll leave you be in your world where you keep talking up the OXR price.
> 
> <unsubscribing from this thread. Happy to discuss OXR with anyone by PM>



Can't take the heat so gets out of the kitchen!
You need to take care, haemitite, about assuming what people fall in love with.
I have been accumulating OXR for 3 years and it is my largest holding by far - almost 50,000 shares at an average $1.39.
Your statement about selective filtering of information is based on what, exactly?
Some of your "facts" were a little off the mark, while you are relying on a valuation for OXR's PH from a company that does not specialise in the mining sector.
I am not aware of this thread getting "ugly" anywhere, and you are welcome to post in defence of your statements, without trying to sidestep matters.
In relation to anything factual about PH, what do you want?
Until the company is producing from PH we are all guessing about the price of copper and gold.  By the way, while the chance of copper falling a touch by 2008 is  strong, the chance of gold rising further is, perhaps, stronger.  Anyone costing copper/gold plays will know that gold will be a stronger determinant of profitability than copper: Overnight the price of gold per ounce increased by almost twice the prevailing price of copper per pound.
In relation to PH, you made claims suggesting it was not world class and backed up your statements with no facts all. Nizar and I have added enough information on OXR recently to get a reasonble idea of the company.
If I thought OXR was a crappy stock to hold, I would say so.  If I thought it should be sold now to take a profit, I would say so.
In the commodity sector I think the potential upside of OXR has a long way to go, and is far better than the majority of its industry peers.
It is producing 3 of the stronger performing metals in zinc, copper, and gold in robust quantities.
Just for the record, my Comsec holdings are below:


----------



## michael_selway

rederob said:
			
		

> Just for the record, my Comsec holdings are below:









Thanks, just wondering what makes up the "All Others - 34%"

Thx

MS


----------



## dubiousinfo

Interesting to note that OXR has risen by nearly 8% since this discusion started on 4 Sept.

As for falling in love with the stock,   while I do like the performance of OXR, I would never let it stay the night. LOL    :

No offence haemitite, but your arguments to date have lacked substance & facts.


----------



## rederob

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Thanks, just wondering what makes up the "All Others - 34%"
> Thx
> MS



MS
Today I have 37 separate holdings, mostly FPOs but a few with free attaching options, such as MMNO.
I also have holdings that are not on Comsec, including AMP, BSL, CBA, SUN and TLS (first tranche).
I intend to lighten up my minerals expsoure at end October, unless commodities go for another run north.
I anticipate OXR breaching $4 this year, and expect the present run to be very strong.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

rederob said:
			
		

> MS
> Today I have 37 separate holdings, mostly FPOs but a few with free attaching options, such as MMNO.
> I also have holdings that are not on Comsec, including AMP, BSL, CBA, SUN and TLS (first tranche).
> I intend to lighten up my minerals expsoure at end October, unless commodities go for another run north.
> I anticipate OXR breaching $4 this year, and expect the present run to be very strong.




Agree with you Rob, present run will pass $3.50.
OXR are a bit of a dog though.


----------



## snapper_man

Well this dog still has plenty of wag in its tail. Mr freeballing what stocks do you consider 'non dog'. Hurry my finger is poised over the 'buy' button.
Haemitite had a couple of valid points including not falling in love with a stock. Personally I've gone well beyond that and little Oxiana is expected next month. Unfortunately Haemites figures did not add up or were explained.
Rederob dont get too excited about a spike in Cu and Zinc, better for the metals market to enter a long consistent stage.


----------



## MalteseBull

Looks like the ox is headed towards $4


----------



## rederob

snapper_man said:
			
		

> Rederob dont get too excited about a spike in Cu and Zinc, better for the metals market to enter a long consistent stage.



snapper
I think if you check out the charts posted in the *Morning Metals Commentary * at this site you will see that we have had almost 4 months of consolidation:
http://www.manmetals.com/research/index.asp
I expect copper to reclaim its early year highs and zinc to go through the roof in the next few months.
I say these things because if I get them wrong, the people that think I am talking rubbish can throw it back at me.
I don't get commodities wrong in terms of trend, but getting the timing right is a bit harder.

Overnight copper hit consecutive "buy stops" as technical traders were caught out by the size of the move upwards. 
The present base metals breakout typically runs for 2-3 days before a big "hit" as profit takers leave the market to cool down. 
I anticipate a selldown Friday night so decks are cleared for the next week.
LME inventories will be closely scanned this week as consumers restock ahead of ramping up their production facilities. Typically we need to see cancelled warrants perk up; and if they do we might see more consolidations at level rather than big dips in price.

In the specific case of OXR, it was a buy last week, and is still a buy.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

snapper_man said:
			
		

> Well this dog still has plenty of wag in its tail. Mr freeballing what stocks do you consider 'non dog'. Hurry my finger is poised over the 'buy' button.
> Haemitite had a couple of valid points including not falling in love with a stock. Personally I've gone well beyond that and little Oxiana is expected next month. Unfortunately Haemites figures did not add up or were explained.
> Rederob dont get too excited about a spike in Cu and Zinc, better for the metals market to enter a long consistent stage.




They are a dog, in the fact their SP is fair value, fundamentally.

I considered KZL & MRE non dogs, a few months back. In the sense that their SP didn't reflect their fundamentals. This has been proven true in their current SP.

MRE has a lot of upside to come, they've ironed out the wrinkles with the acid plant, production has increased and should hit full production in the next few months. If nickle spot prices remain high, their next half earnings will be a humper. I will drop my pants if MRE arn't $7 by April.

Rederob considers SMY a dog. I on the other hand like them. They remind me of KZL in the early days, just need to eat into their hedge book a bit more.Fundamentally I think they have the best future out of any stock in the materials sector.

Anyway I still say OXR is a dog, with a real slow wag>.


----------



## snapper_man

Freeballing hang onto your wetsuit zipper I dont want to be hit with a cyber moon. I'll check out MRE and SMY. Held onto Oxiana now for a long time now. Every time someone has told me to get out they have gone up. 
Rederob, the metals prediction game is very complex and i have pretty much given up on it. If CU and zinc average what they have since 30 June for the rest of the year, Oxiana should crack in aroud 80 - 120m more than 1st half. That will buy a few extra smackos for the dog.


----------



## michael_selway

snapper_man said:
			
		

> Freeballing hang onto your wetsuit zipper I dont want to be hit with a cyber moon. I'll check out MRE and SMY. Held onto Oxiana now for a long time now. Every time someone has told me to get out they have gone up.
> Rederob, the metals prediction game is very complex and i have pretty much given up on it. If CU and zinc average what they have since 30 June for the rest of the year, Oxiana should crack in aroud 80 - 120m more than 1st half. That will buy a few extra smackos for the dog.




the difference i think is whther u think whther Copper is bullish or bearish?

Im bearish on it at current prices, but things may change?

thx

MS


----------



## coyotte

Rederob's list of share holdings shows the difference between a Trader & a Invester --- TSL ( first trach) : from memory this issue reached over $9.00 ; a Trader would have been OUT at the very worst @ around $ 8.10 --- and not riden the stock all the way down to it's present level :

Price action @ the moment is indicating that OXR must break and stay above $3.25 to be a medium term long and the $ 3.25 level is decaying with time 


Cheers


----------



## nizar

coyotte said:
			
		

> Rederob's list of share holdings shows the difference between a Trader & a Invester --- TSL ( first trach) : from memory this issue reached over $9.00 ; a Trader would have been OUT at the very worst @ around $ 8.10 --- and not riden the stock all the way down to it's present level :
> 
> Price action @ the moment is indicating that OXR must break and stay above $3.25 to be a medium term long and the $ 3.25 level is decaying with time
> 
> 
> Cheers




I have exited my position in this stock (at a profit) based on my PH calculations, but continue to watch with interest as some family members still hold.

I tend to favour *pure* zinc plays at the moment; and uranium is another sector in which we have only seen the beginning IMO


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> Rederob's list of share holdings shows the difference between a Trader & a Invester --- TSL ( first trach) : from memory this issue reached over $9.00 ; a Trader would have been OUT at the very worst @ around $ 8.10 --- and not riden the stock all the way down to it's present level :
> 
> Price action @ the moment is indicating that OXR must break and stay above $3.25 to be a medium term long and the $ 3.25 level is decaying with time
> 
> 
> Cheers



coyotte
You are right.
For me to sell that tranche I would need to find the HIN, and then find a broker.
It's easier just to keep getting the ff dividends.
My SUN shares were bought around the $6 mark in '98 and have paid for themselves in ff divs since then, so everything else is a profit.
I think the BSL shares I hold were spun off from my BHP holdings around 4 years ago, as they are not on my CHESS holdings.  So maybe I got them for free - I'm not sure - I certainly haven't "traded" in them.

As for OXR, I started buying exactly 3 years ago at 80 cents (10K).
As for your technical analysis of OXR, I ignored the same 3 years ago and see no reason to change my mind when the company continues to outperform against almost any yardstick you want to measure it by.
If OXR broke below $2.40 I might be tempted to sell, probably because as a barometer of the commodity market it would be a portend of worse to come.


----------



## coyotte

OXR seems a interesting play at the moment 

appears to have hit it's project temp support position 2.75 on the UP trend line but in the past has allways continued DOWN to a break of the bottom bollinger band before rebounding .

Appears to be too much indecision to continue playing this stock -- so have CLOSED all SHORT positions --- but would certainly not be going LONG --- even short term .

If OXR breaks below 2.70 the next level of support (apart from a breach of the Bollinger Bands) is a decaying 1.90 --- as I see it

Refer back to earlier posts on this thread ---- this stock is playing out to plan


----------



## Sean K

Been following OXR for a bit but don't hold yet. Another to consider.

In the paper today:

BASE metals miner Oxiana expects to make a mammoth $500 million profit this year. Oxiana reported a half-year profit of $263.2 million -- more than three times its full-year result last year -- and the company's managing director Owen Hegarty said yesterday he expected the strong performance to continue.

"In the second half of the year we expect to essentially repeat the operating performance of the first half," he told an open briefing posted on the Australian Stock Exchange.

"Given spot prices remain above the first-half average, we would expect our profit for the year to be around the $500 million mark."

Oxiana operates the Sepon gold and copper mine in Laos and the Golden Grove base metals project in Western Australia.

Mr Hegarty said the company was considering expanding Golden Grove, with the potential to re-open the original Scuddles mine to access copper material remains.

The company is also spending $775 million developing the Prominent Hill mine in South Australia.

Mr Hegarty said the outlook for copper, zinc and gold remained strong, with low stockpiles, robust demand and supply-side disruptions keeping prices high.


Chart looks like support at $2.50, oversold on stochastics, and bollinger, and hitting 200d ma to provide support also. Like all the other copper/goldies need these commoditites to pause, but I think it's reflecting their charts also. Gold at $560/75 found support and ready to bounce. Not sure about copper etc charts. 

Sorry, no chart - I'm confined to the spare laptop driven by mice while the boss is studying....

I don't hold this or SGX and both are looking like coming into buy territory for believers in the gold bull.


----------



## coyotte

Kennas:

What bollinger bands settings are you using ?  those recomended by bollinger show OXR is in a steady decline --- not as yet over sold.

IMO using indicators for a entery is a courages move , best wait untill the price action clears the count back line for a long position --- OXR responds well to count back --- Trend Lines are indicating a possible bounce at 2.43 , but not a arrest of the over all decline ---- you  usually need a period of high volume to flush out the last of rhe sellers , this has not yet occured and the avg volume is  only helping the eventual support at present a decaying 2.19 come about in a controlled manner.

Thats how I read the weekly/daily charts   
I am still SHORT OXR 

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

coyotte said:
			
		

> Kennas:
> 
> What bollinger bands settings are you using ?  those recomended by bollinger show OXR is in a steady decline --- not as yet over sold.



I'm just using the ones on Big Charts pre set at 20. The sp has been skirting the lower band for the past 3 days, and everytime it has gone through over the past 6 months, it has then rebounded to the upper band. So, maybe I should have said almost oversold, but it's close enough to me. 



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> IMO using indicators for a entery is a courages move , best wait untill the price action clears the count back line for a long position --- OXR responds well to count back --- Trend Lines are indicating a possible bounce at 2.43 ,



Not sure how you get 2.43 - can you put a chart up to show that? The only real trend I see atm is a decending triangle with a base at $2.50. If it breaks this, then $2.00 is next support. I reckon if gold breaks $560 then this is a possibility. 



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> you  usually need a period of high volume to flush out the last of rhe sellers , this has not yet occured and the avg volume is  only helping the eventual support at present a decaying 2.19 come about in a controlled manner.
> 
> Thats how I read the weekly/daily charts
> I am still SHORT OXR
> 
> Cheers



If you're short gold for the moment, then yep, I'd be shorting this too, along with LHG. I'm not certain gold will head back to $540, and am more inclined to think around $560/70 is the base for the next run up. Obviously, there are quite a few people saying $540 is the next downward leg before heading north again. Perhaps I'm just being hopefuly. Perhaps I'm thinking geopolitics is as good as it is right this second too. I think the uneasy peace we have around the place now will be shattered soon with the 'bomb season' about to officially kick off in Indonesia. I'm expecting another big one. The Middle East doesn't need much to kick off again, and there must be a hurricane about to eventuate in the Gulf of Mexico......Plus, Crazy Kim has been quiet in the North - he's just itching to launch another missile over Japan........All good for gold.


----------



## coyotte

Kennas:
Chart and explaination :

B/Bs as explained by Bollinger must be set at 20*2 simple . 
Has broken below the important 2.60 support level -- this is the 4th test at that level ---- the 2.43 breach/rebound was also a breach of the lower B/Bs and a verification of the  decaying Support level .
Would expect a mild bounce off 2.43 BUT would need to clear both the C/B and the upper channel line before I could consider a Long Position .

The decaying support level with 3 tests is clearly headed for 2.00 or <.

Each time OXR  has breached the B/Bs upper/lower it has served the warning as intended by Bollinger.

Volume has not exceeded its 5 d avg, TMP is showing distribution , ADX is showing a strength being generated in the down trend.

Agree with the POG part BUT , OXR is a copper stock , which is being played by some as a Goldie :


----------



## Sean K

Coyotte, Thanks for the chart and analysis. I think we generally agree with a few cents out in parts. I wouldn't describe OXR as just a copper company though. Even the company calls itself a copper-gold miner. I think it's still a big factor in it's ongoing sp, along with copper, yes.


----------



## coyotte

Kennas

Apologise for quality of the chart --- can not seem to find the ideal setting for this site .

Agree with you about OXR and POG ,  but I bought this up earlier on this thread and was shot down in flames by the F/As --- but I  agree OXR seems to be traded as a  Goldie.


Cheers


----------



## MalteseBull

nice recovery on the ox today


----------



## MalteseBull

*cough* *cough* possible takeover from Xstrata anyone?


----------



## Morgan

Aaagh! Missed this while I was too busy loading up the trailer with JPR


----------



## mikeg

Have not heard anything, could not find any announcements.

Anybody know?


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> Kennas
> 
> Apologise for quality of the chart --- can not seem to find the ideal setting for this site .
> 
> Agree with you about OXR and POG ,  but I bought this up earlier on this thread and was shot down in flames by the F/As --- but I  agree OXR seems to be traded as a  Goldie.
> 
> 
> Cheers



Looking forward to your next post, coyotte.


----------



## jet-r

something is looming.
this is exactly what happened to HDR the day before the takeover announcement.
The last ten trades at 4:10pm are sold at $3.00, 3% higher than the 4pm closing sp.


----------



## MalteseBull

mikeg said:
			
		

> Have not heard anything, could not find any announcements.
> 
> Anybody know?




from other sources (hotcopper) and comsec chat they are saying possibly ZFX but my money is on Xstrata..

Xstrata missed on WMC so i beleive OXR (second largest gold miner in aus behind  NCM) is on the spotlight


----------



## Sean K

Xstrata are due to decide on taking 62% of IRN this week, so maybe not. Or, maybe they're going to pick both up?


----------



## Knobby22

Could be anyone.
It would be a shame as the shares are worth much more than $3.00.


----------



## Halba

most of the resource sector is trading at about 100% below their real value anyway   and most of these undervalued ones i hold     cept ox!


----------



## blueroo

Looks like there is some life left in the OX after all. It would be nice if it could replicate the 17% increase in the sp a few more times for us. We deserve it!


----------



## snapper_man

My money is on BHP some good synergies with PH. Would not be happy  selling under $4.


----------



## michael_selway

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> Could be anyone.
> It would be a shame as the shares are worth much more than $3.00.




How much are they worth then?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 37.8 29.8 22.6 
DPS 1.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 

thx

MS


----------



## snapper_man

Michael,

What are the 2009 figures? EPS? 

What were that set of figures one year ago?

hmm... figures change?

Growth, prospects, history and quality of management


----------



## michael_selway

snapper_man said:
			
		

> Michael,
> 
> What are the 2009 figures? EPS?
> 
> What were that set of figures one year ago?
> 
> hmm... figures change?
> 
> Growth, prospects, history and quality of management




Hi its updated every couple of weeks at least, yes EPS, and revising down is a possibly as time goes on

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 37.8 29.8 22.6 
DPS 1.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 

thx

MS


----------



## Knobby22

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi its updated every couple of weeks at least, yes EPS, and revising down is a possibly as time goes on
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 5.6 37.8 29.8 22.6
> DPS 1.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I am surprised at those figures, (reducing greatly over 2007,2008) considering the number of mines yet to open and the prospects of further finds. Does it assume resources will run out or that mineral prices will fall greatly? Where do they come from?

Comsec has 2006 - 44.7
                 2007 - 43.1


Waiting for the annual report to really understand the assumptions.


----------



## MalteseBull

Oxiana is down at the moment because big instuitions want to snap it up before another repeat of yesterday (open low finish high sitution)


----------



## coyotte

Any verification of the rumor the Adlaide reporter started about OXR & ZFX ?

OR was it just ramping ?

Cheers


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> Any verification of the rumor the Adlaide reporter started about OXR & ZFX ?
> 
> OR was it just ramping ?
> 
> Cheers



coyotte
Surely you can do better than that!
I am interested in your technical analysis now that the rumour has been formally scotched.
Up?
Down? 
Sideways?
Any ways....


----------



## coyotte

rederob
I was simply asking a question as I have seen no further follow up .
read into what you wish --- nothing was intended



Cheers


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> rederob
> I was simply asking a question as I have seen no further follow up .
> read into what you wish --- nothing was intended
> Cheers



coyotte
There was a "please explain" from ASIC.
The parties have denied that any takeover offers have been made/implied/presented.
So the question now becomes what to make of the rapid run north.
Will it fizzle?
Is there more to come?
Or is a sit on the fence looking good?
What do the chartists foresee?
Any light to shed?


----------



## coyotte

rederob

As I have obvouisly been Stoped out , I am waiting for the next move myself , have been playing this stock for a long time now

As I see it at the moment a CLOSE below 2.80 would be a SHORT signal , whilst a CLOSE above 3.00 would be a LONG signal . 

BUT : a " half mast bear flag " appears to be forming ( last 2 days ) -- very ominouse for a LONG position .

I'll be waiting this one out.


Cheers


----------



## rederob

coyotte said:
			
		

> rederob
> 
> As I have obvouisly been Stoped out , I am waiting for the next move myself , have been playing this stock for a long time now
> 
> As I see it at the moment a CLOSE below 2.80 would be a SHORT signal , whilst a CLOSE above 3.00 would be a LONG signal .
> 
> BUT : a " half mast bear flag " appears to be forming ( last 2 days ) -- very ominouse for a LONG position .
> 
> I'll be waiting this one out.
> 
> Cheers



Excellent!


----------



## michael_selway

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> michael_selway said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hi its updated every couple of weeks at least, yes EPS, and revising down is a possibly as time goes on
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 5.6 37.8 29.8 22.6
> DPS 1.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
> 
> thx
> 
> MS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am surprised at those figures, (reducing greatly over 2007,2008) considering the number of mines yet to open and the prospects of further finds. Does it assume resources will run out or that mineral prices will fall greatly? Where do they come from?
> 
> Comsec has 2006 - 44.7
> 2007 - 43.1
> 
> 
> Waiting for the annual report to really understand the assumptions.
Click to expand...



Hi slightly upgraded recently

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 38.4 30.3 23.8 
DPS 1.0 6.0 4.9 4.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 38.4 7.6 588.2% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 30.3 9.6 -21.1% 

Where do u get the below from? can you make a screenshot?

2006 - 44.7
2007 - 43.1

thx

MS


----------



## Knobby22

Thanks Mick, Comsec has changed the figures and they more closely match yours now.

This is what I copied off the Comsec page, (it doesn't show the graphs):

ASX Code: OXR     Oxiana Limited 
Main View  | Forecasts  | Financials  | Company Info  | News  | Announcements  | Analysis  | Dividends  | Shareholders  | Directors

Buy  | Sell  | Depth  | Chart  | Watchlist  



Welcome to Commsec's Analyst Forecasts page - another tool to help you make smarter investment decisions. We dig a little deeper to uncover what's driving the market's expectations and the all important analyst earnings per share forecasts. To get the most out the page, click here to read the attached story.  
FORECAST EARNINGS  Last Analyst Update  
 2 October, 2006 
 EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 38.4 7.7 588.2% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 29.8 9.9 -22.4% 



FORECAST EARNINGS TREND
Have the analysts been upgrading or downgrading their forecasts over the last 3 months? 





FORECAST EARNINGS TREND DETAILS  
 Year Ending 30-12-06 --------- Year Ending 30-12-07 
 EPS(c) PE Growth --------- EPS(c) PE Growth 
Median 38.4 7.7 588.2%  29.8 9.9 -22.4% 
High 43.1 6.8 672.4%  41.7 7.1 -3.2% 
Low 34.5 8.5 518.3%  20.0 14.7 -42.0% 
30 Days Ago 36.8    29.3   
60 Days Ago 35.5    26.3   
90 Days Ago 35.3    26.5   

Number of Analyst 
Estimates 14  14 




EARNINGS SURPRISE
Does the company have a history of surprising the market? 

No Earnings Surprise data available  



CURRENT ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS
What are the analysts recommending? 





AVERAGE ANALYST RECOMMENDATION HISTORY  
 Company Market Sector -------------  
Current 2.4 2.3 2.1  Strong Buy = 1  
30 Days Ago 2.4    Mod. Buy = 2  
60 Days Ago 2.5    Hold = 3  
90 Days Ago 2.2    Mod. Sell = 4  
     Strong Sell = 5  




CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS  
SOUTHERN CROSS EQUITIES LTD., ABN AMRO, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, AUSTOCK LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS (CANADA), JPMORGAN, E.L. & C. BAILLIEU STOCKBROKING LTD., MERRILL LYNCH (INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH), CITIGROUP, UBS, MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, WILSON HTM SECURITIES, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE - AUSTRALIA


----------



## michael_selway

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> Thanks Mick, Comsec has changed the figures and they more closely match yours now.
> 
> This is what I copied off the Comsec page, (it doesn't show the graphs):
> 
> ASX Code: OXR     Oxiana Limited
> Main View  | Forecasts  | Financials  | Company Info  | News  | Announcements  | Analysis  | Dividends  | Shareholders  | Directors
> 
> Buy  | Sell  | Depth  | Chart  | Watchlist
> 
> 
> 
> Welcome to Commsec's Analyst Forecasts page - another tool to help you make smarter investment decisions. We dig a little deeper to uncover what's driving the market's expectations and the all important analyst earnings per share forecasts. To get the most out the page, click here to read the attached story.
> FORECAST EARNINGS  Last Analyst Update
> 2 October, 2006
> EPS(c) PE Growth
> Year Ending 30-12-06 38.4 7.7 588.2%
> Year Ending 30-12-07 29.8 9.9 -22.4%
> 
> 
> 
> FORECAST EARNINGS TREND
> Have the analysts been upgrading or downgrading their forecasts over the last 3 months?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FORECAST EARNINGS TREND DETAILS
> Year Ending 30-12-06 --------- Year Ending 30-12-07
> EPS(c) PE Growth --------- EPS(c) PE Growth
> Median 38.4 7.7 588.2%  29.8 9.9 -22.4%
> High 43.1 6.8 672.4%  41.7 7.1 -3.2%
> Low 34.5 8.5 518.3%  20.0 14.7 -42.0%
> 30 Days Ago 36.8    29.3
> 60 Days Ago 35.5    26.3
> 90 Days Ago 35.3    26.5
> 
> Number of Analyst
> Estimates 14  14
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EARNINGS SURPRISE
> Does the company have a history of surprising the market?
> 
> No Earnings Surprise data available
> 
> 
> 
> CURRENT ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS
> What are the analysts recommending?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> AVERAGE ANALYST RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
> Company Market Sector -------------
> Current 2.4 2.3 2.1  Strong Buy = 1
> 30 Days Ago 2.4    Mod. Buy = 2
> 60 Days Ago 2.5    Hold = 3
> 90 Days Ago 2.2    Mod. Sell = 4
> Strong Sell = 5
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS
> SOUTHERN CROSS EQUITIES LTD., ABN AMRO, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, AUSTOCK LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS (CANADA), JPMORGAN, E.L. & C. BAILLIEU STOCKBROKING LTD., MERRILL LYNCH (INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH), CITIGROUP, UBS, MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, WILSON HTM SECURITIES, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE - AUSTRALIA




Hi Knobby

Thanks but when you go to "Main Veiw", theres actually more forecasts there, can you see the below?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 38.4 29.8 25.2 
DPS 1.0 6.0 4.9 4.4 * 

thx

MS


----------



## Knobby22

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi Knobby
> 
> Thanks but when you go to "Main Veiw", theres actually more forecasts there, can you see the below?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 5.6 38.4 29.8 25.2
> DPS 1.0 6.0 4.9 4.4 *
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Yes I do, thanks!


----------



## coyotte

*OXR --- flags ?*

Help !

Anyone know what we have here .

Starts with a  Bear Flag 
Has it now changed to a Bull Flag or is it confirmation of the Bear Flag ?
Got me snookered at the moment


Cheers


----------



## dutchie

*Re: OXR --- flags ?*

G'day Coyotte

I'm using Elliot waves and think that we are in a C wave. The 25th of Sept. action has baffled me a bit (basically I've ignored it in the scheme of things) but using EW and the price of gold (even though OXR is not a pure gold play) I estimate a fall to about $2.3 (possibly lower).

Hope that helps.

Cheers

Dutchie


----------



## coyotte

*Re: OXR --- flags ?*

Mmmm

After a couple of beers its  a Pennet

Break down confirmed !


----------



## coyotte

*Re: OXR --- flags ?*

Thanks Dutchie

25th was a manipulated move

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Perhaps the pennant is still there for OXR on a larger chart...

Close up doesn't seem to support it too well at the moment, but these things are rarely perfectly formed imo. 

Found a pretty good base at $2.50-60, but these low points probably correspond to the lows of gold and copper too.....wouldn't be surprised if the support levels correspond.


----------



## swingstar

Here's my preferred count for OXR. Note I haven't taken into account metal prices etc. 

Due to the throwover and volume spike at wave e, I believe the triangle has finished and we should see a lot more further upside.


----------



## Nick Radge




----------



## swingstar

Hi Nick

Great to see another count / analysis. The remainder of this week will be very interesting. 

Cheers


----------



## coyotte

Congratulations Nick

Great to see simple Trend Line Channel Trading @ it,s best
by the way this is similar to Wormald's methodogy 
Swingstar imho U missed-placed the upper line  at point ( b ), as demostrated in nick's chart -- shouldn't the current resistance  be around 3.10 ?
But heck whats it's matter OXR is still in no man's land 


Cheers


----------



## swingstar

coyotte said:
			
		

> Swingstar imho U missed-placed the upper line  at point ( b ), as demostrated in nick's chart -- shouldn't the current resistance  be around 3.10 ?




Only off by a few cents. I try not to be too pedantic. 



> But heck whats it's matter OXR is still in no man's land




Not if you take the EW approach. I'm actually surprised by Nick's analysis, as it counts waves on the way up, yet then discards it drawing out a channel. 

I'm still learning and testing EW application tho, so I only post for educational purposes and in the hope other EW analysts will post alternative (or even supportive) counts. 

If it breaks the channel or pennant tomorrow (whichever way you want to look at it), a lot of traders will probably jump on the long side driving it up at least past $3.20 IMO.


----------



## michael_selway

swingstar said:
			
		

> Here's my preferred count for OXR. Note I haven't taken into account metal prices etc.
> 
> Due to the throwover and volume spike at wave e, I believe the triangle has finished and we should see a lot more further upside.




hey looking at the chart it seems bearish, like "volatile bearish" if you know what i mean

thx

MS


----------



## swingstar

michael_selway said:
			
		

> hey looking at the chart it seems bearish, like "volatile bearish" if you know what i mean




If it is the beginning of wave V, then we should see some bullish action, at least past highs in May (how long till then I don't know ).


----------



## clowboy

hey all,

Been watching OXR pretty closing last few weeks and am thinking that if it trades above $3-3.15 that it is positive and may top up a bit.

Nick, can you explain your chart a little for me as Im not yet advanced enuff to work it out on my loansome.  Is the ? meant to represent a case of it will either bounce off this line and fall again or plough through it and the skies the limit?


Cheers


----------



## coyotte

swingstar said:
			
		

> Not if you take the EW approach. I'm actually surprised by Nick's analysis, as it counts waves on the way up, yet then discards it drawing out a channel.




This is execatly the the point I was trying to get over in the thread Barney started -- that is that in the old Kitco Forum when ever Spot Gold Bottoms/Tops there would be around half a dozen EW practioners posting charts --- only trouble was they would all be different --- one would presume Elliott knew what he was on about but that theory would appear to have been corrupted by outhers over time .

But OXR seems to have gone wacko since it spiked up !

As I see it -- probably wrong 
We had a Dominate Bull Candle --- that failed .
A Bear Flag, that changed to Bull Flag ,that changed to a Eq-Triangle ,
Breaking the Eq-Tri UP indicating Long
Trend Lines Indicating Short 

A untradable stock at the moment ?

Cheers


----------



## swingstar

coyotte said:
			
		

> This is execatly the the point I was trying to get over in the thread Barney started -- that is that in the old Kitco Forum when ever Spot Gold Bottoms/Tops there would be around half a dozen EW practioners posting charts --- only trouble was they would all be different --- one would presume Elliott knew what he was on about but that theory would appear to have been corrupted by authers over time .




There are preferred counts and then there are alternative counts. EW is supposed to be objective though, as stated in the Elliott Wave Principle. I haven't had enough experience with it tho and how it should be applied to equities. I have Robert Miner's book on order... which Nick has recommended. 

What I like about EW is having rules to follow. If x happens then do this. Like a cross between a discretionary and mechanical system, lol.

Edit: Or rather, if x happens, then these are the probabilities, and you can formulate a plan to trade.


----------



## Nick Radge

I left my counts off this recent volatility phase. But here are some hints to EW counts: The major high was a wave-5. Even if you counted it as a wave-3, both are followed by a corrective move of some description. A corrective move will always be choppy and difficult to decipher, exactly what we're seeing here in OXR. There is no doubt OXR is some kind of consolidation/correction, but until it shows signs of another impulse (higher or lower) then its best to look elsewhere or move out to a longer time frame.

My chart shows area's of support and resistance. We're approaching the upper resistance, but the close is off the high and the volume has picked up a little. Suggests sellers to me and more so because of the channel and recent pivot high being aligned.


----------



## Sean K

It's been great to see the different interpretations of this and the ew counts. Thanks guys, most helpful. My work is much more basic than you characters though, and I still see this last pennant and slightly bullish move up from it as a potential break in the trend. Needs a couple of days to confirm it and as I've said before, heading through $3.15 would do it. I'm no chartist though. Just a person looking for a boat captain.


----------



## swingstar

There's quite a large wall of sellers in the depth, so don't think we'll see much movement up today. Will probably take a big day on Wall Street or metals to see more buyers in.


----------



## swingstar

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> I left my counts off this recent volatility phase. But here are some hints to EW counts: The major high was a wave-5. Even if you counted it as a wave-3, both are followed by a corrective move of some description. A corrective move will always be choppy and difficult to decipher, exactly what we're seeing here in OXR. There is no doubt OXR is some kind of consolidation/correction, but until it shows signs of another impulse (higher or lower) then its best to look elsewhere or move out to a longer time frame.
> 
> My chart shows area's of support and resistance. We're approaching the upper resistance, but the close is off the high and the volume has picked up a little. Suggests sellers to me and more so because of the channel and recent pivot high being aligned.




Nick, thanks for your analysis. See the attachment for where I got my possible count from. The clear three-wave decline is visible to me to make the a wave, and throwovers are quite common at the end of triangles. The peaks then make quite a well-formed triangle. 

I haven't gone as far back as to determine if the previous high was the end of wave 5 or 3 (well definitely a wave 5, but on what scale I'm not sure)--my EW analysis isn't that advanced (hoping to get that from Miner's book)--but I think the triangle is a possibility.


----------



## rederob

swingstar said:
			
		

> If it is the beginning of wave V, then we should see some bullish action, at least past highs in May (how long till then I don't know ).



swingstar
I thing that post was pivotal.
I don't use the tech stuff much, but have a close eye on the underlying metal prices of OXR.
My reading of their production numbers suggests that Golden Grove (principally zinc) will outperform Sepon copper/gold this year.
So while the jury is out on copper/gold direction, the verdict on silver, lead and zinc has been delivered.
It's LME week this week, so commodities swing back to full tradingvolumes next week.  However, in what can be a disastrous week (revisit what happened this time last year) the base metals have rallied strongly instead.
This all suggests to me that the run to Xmas will be a cracker for those (like me) overweight in commodity based equities.


----------



## YELNATS

OXR has just gone to $3.26 in the last half hour or so. Any particular reason why? Regards YN.


----------



## rederob

YELNATS said:
			
		

> OXR has just gone to $3.26 in the last half hour or so. Any particular reason why? Regards YN.



Yeah.
They all read this thread, and threw money at the bull.
  :bier:


----------



## swingstar

YELNATS said:
			
		

> OXR has just gone to $3.26 in the last half hour or so. Any particular reason why? Regards YN.




Here's my reasoning:



			
				swingstar said:
			
		

> If it breaks the channel or pennant tomorrow (whichever way you want to look at it), a lot of traders will probably jump on the long side driving it up at least past $3.20 IMO.




All of the buying was mostly during lunchtime, so I'm not getting too excited. Will be interesting to see how it plays out now that the pennant/channel has been breached.


----------



## YELNATS

Up to $3.33 now, bounding ahead!


----------



## Halba

any fundamental change in ox's outlook? starting to look fully priced relative to say ZFX or KZL

didn't think that copper or gold are doing that well

prominent hill is a while off as well


----------



## swingstar

Quite an interesting advance on a market down day--second biggest mover on the day to PMN. I didn't think it would finish strongly in the afternoon. Highest volume traded since June 9.


----------



## bvbfan

zinc prices at or close to may highs depenging on source, zinc prices very bullish to me


----------



## pacer

They don't own enough zinc for my liking....went long on KZL and ZFX yesterday....hope the graph looks like OXR over the next week or two........

Went short on STO santos yesterday too......how much is mud worth these days? lol...what a disaster.....


----------



## rederob

pacer said:
			
		

> They don't own enough zinc for my liking....went long on KZL and ZFX yesterday.........



pacer
Perhaps you should compare OXR with KZL and surprise yourself!


----------



## BSD

Sorry if it is seen to be rude - but does anybody really think even 5% of the 40 million shares were traded today because of a pennant/channel/double chock-top pattern with a bullish mood based on the weak phase of the moon cycle?

OXR was punted today based on takeover rumours - nobody on the desks buying 500,000 share lines was looking at a chart pattern

The strong copper and zinc price has been driving the price for the last week

Would love to have it explained to me how the OXR wave count has affected or provided any more information than the real drivers of OXR:

1. The Cu and Zn price
2. The Cu and Zn inventory and demand
3. The appetite for OXR shares from funds/predators
4. The rumour mill 

?

In my view, the information available on the phone (grapevine), net and newswire is a billion times more valuable than that drawn from a group of chartists arguing about a wave count. 

'Coincidence gathering' is easy when you cant even get a group of chartists to agree on what the chart is meant to be saying. 

Of course someone is eventually right


----------



## swingstar

The real drivers hey? I'm sure if I cared, I could pick holes in anyone's analysis (even my own), providing some 'good' or 'bad' news or some type of pattern to 'explain' the price. 

I'm sure OXR has dived on days where all of those 'facts' were present--or maybe not, and you're a billionaire?

Patterns (including waves) may be just that, or maybe there is something else at work, some underlying pattern to crowd behaviour and psychology. But who knows, hey?


----------



## BSD

chartists said:
			
		

> OXR responds well to count back --- Trend Lines are indicating a possible bounce at 2.43 , but not a arrest of the over all decline ---- you usually need a period of high volume to flush out the last of rhe sellers , this has not yet occured and the avg volume is only helping the eventual support at present a decaying 2.19 come about in a controlled manner.
> 
> Thats how I read the weekly/daily charts
> 
> I am still SHORT OXR
> 
> If OXR breaks below 2.70 the next level of support (apart from a breach of the Bollinger Bands) is a decaying 1.90 --- as I see it
> 
> Not sure how you get 2.43 - can you put a chart up to show that? The only real trend I see atm is a decending triangle with a base at $2.50. If it breaks this, then $2.00 is next support. I reckon if gold breaks $560 then this is a possibility.
> 
> As I see it at the moment a CLOSE below 2.80 would be a SHORT signal , whilst a CLOSE above 3.00 would be a LONG signal
> 
> I'm using Elliot waves and think that we are in a C wave. The 25th of Sept. action has baffled me a bit (basically I've ignored it in the scheme of things) but using EW and the price of gold (even though OXR is not a pure gold play) I estimate a fall to about $2.3 (possibly lower).
> 
> Break down confirmed !
> 
> There is no doubt OXR is some kind of consolidation/correction, but until it shows signs of another impulse (higher or lower) then its best to look elsewhere or move out to a longer time frame.
> 
> My chart shows area's of support and resistance. We're approaching the upper resistance, but the close is off the high and the volume has picked up a little. Suggests sellers to me and more so because of the channel and recent pivot high being aligned.




I dont pretend to offer an accurate daily prediction and I am sorry if you see the post as 2020 hindsight

But looking at the absolute rubbish on this thread from the last fortnight, I feel studying commodities markets and understanding the supply demand function for copper and zinc has given me more profits and less ulcers than wave counts could ever offer.

 Having an investment horizon longer than 5 minutes helps a lot too.

I have a firm grasp on the effect random events have on my profits.

I would say,however, that factors like Asian demographics and the supply/demand function for Cu and Zn are far less random than the daily fluctuations of a charted price of a security

In any case - corporate activity (or rumour thereof) is a major swing factor and in the short term, trumps fundamentals and technicals everytime. 

An ear close to the ground beats a chart and an analyst anyday of the week!


----------



## wayneL

BSD said:
			
		

> Sorry if it is seen to be rude - but does anybody really think even 5% of the 40 million shares were traded today because of a pennant/channel/double chock-top pattern with a bullish mood based on the weak phase of the moon cycle?
> 
> OXR was punted today based on takeover rumours - nobody on the desks buying 500,000 share lines was looking at a chart pattern
> 
> The strong copper and zinc price has been driving the price for the last week
> 
> Would love to have it explained to me how the OXR wave count has affected or provided any more information than the real drivers of OXR:
> 
> 1. The Cu and Zn price
> 2. The Cu and Zn inventory and demand
> 3. The appetite for OXR shares from funds/predators
> 4. The rumour mill
> 
> ?
> 
> In my view, the information available on the phone (grapevine), net and newswire is a billion times more valuable than that drawn from a group of chartists arguing about a wave count.
> 
> 'Coincidence gathering' is easy when you cant even get a group of chartists to agree on what the chart is meant to be saying.
> 
> Of course someone is eventually right




BSD

Please, don't try to tell us that all fundies agree  

LMAO


----------



## swingstar

Well, I don't try to explain what happened. I only care what has been consistent in history--yes EW has believe it or not--and what the probabilities are and how I can trade it. 

But I think it's futile to explain most occurences in price. Think about it--trying to gauge a single reason or few as to why every single person, or the majority, bought or sold in a certain time frame. 

Maybe your points were a major factor today. Maybe the breakout of the pennant/channel also was. Whatever the case, it doesn't matter much to me.


----------



## wayneL

swingstar said:
			
		

> Well, I don't try to explain what happened. I only care what has been consistent in history--yes EW has believe it or not--and what the probabilities are and how I can trade it.
> 
> But I think it's futile to explain most occurences in price. Think about it--trying to gauge a single reason or few as to why every single person, or the majority, bought or sold in a certain time frame.
> 
> Maybe your points were a major factor today. Maybe the breakout of the pennant/channel also was. Whatever the case, it doesn't matter much to me.




Exactly


----------



## BSD

wayneL said:
			
		

> BSD
> 
> Please, don't try to tell us that all fundies agree
> 
> LMAO





Nothing to do with widespread agreement of fundamental analysts. We wouldnt have a market if we all agreed.

My point is that today the majority of stock was traded on rumour. The arguable wave count had 0% to do with the movement and in my unpopular view, has a similar proportion of predictability for future movements.

Causality and coincidence are difficult to seperate sometimes. I just happen to believe that in a massive majority of markets any percieved success of wave counts is due to coincidence. 


Back on topic:

If Cu stays above $3.10 and Zn above $1.40 - OXR is cum large upgrades

Sepon reserve downgrades are the swing factor


----------



## BSD

swingstar said:
			
		

> But I think it's futile to explain most occurences in price. Think about it--trying to gauge a single reason or few as to why every single person, or the majority, bought or sold in a certain time frame.
> 
> Maybe your points were a major factor today. Maybe the breakout of the pennant/channel also was. Whatever the case, it doesn't matter much to me.




Sorry - I just cannot understand how you can trade based on the shape created on a chart by a market movement without caring what made the market make that shape.

Not a criticism - just an observation


----------



## wayneL

BSD said:
			
		

> Nothing to do with widespread agreement of fundamental analysts. We wouldnt have a market if we all agreed.
> 
> My point is that today the majority of stock was traded on rumour. The arguable wave count had 0% to do with the movement and in my unpopular view, has a similar proportion of predictability for future movements.
> 
> Causality and coincidence are difficult to seperate sometimes. I just happen to believe that in a massive majority of markets any percieved success of wave counts is due to coincidence.



But you made much of disagreement between techies in order to disparage them as a group.... in fact you seem to have an issue with t/a.

I think if you speak to any techie that been around any longer than 5 minutes, they will agree with your causality/coincidence hypothosis. I certainly do. Also agree with the ear to ground comments.

But most people misunderstand the purpose of t/a (including many t/analysts), as do you.... and the proverbial ear to the ground is a most usful adjunct to t/a (and f/a for that matter)

However, that in no way detracts from t/a as a viable method of trading OXR... depending on the purpose of the individual.

Cheers


----------



## RichKid

BSD said:
			
		

> Sorry - I just cannot understand how you can trade based on the shape created on a chart by a market movement without caring what made the market make that shape.
> 
> Not a criticism - just an observation




This is just getting back to the old TA vs Fundamentals debate which has been done to death in other threads so let's get back on topic and just accept that it's a case of different strokes for different strokes (as long as the basis of one's view is not outlandish or unreasonable- EW and other forms of TA are known to be profitable). 

Thanks for not blowing up over this guys.


----------



## swingstar

BSD said:
			
		

> Sorry - I just cannot understand how you can trade based on the shape created on a chart by a market movement without caring what made the market make that shape.
> 
> Not a criticism - just an observation




Like I said, I could find any news or pattern or whatever to fit the fact. Your opinion is just that, an opinion. Maybe half the shares today were bought on rumour, or on metals going up, and maybe half was self-fulfilling TA (breakouts are quite common entry signals). Or maybe something completely different. I don't know, and you don't either. 

On my analysis, I wasn't expecting such a large spike. Given my analysis, the probability of May's highs being reached is likely. If something adverse happens before then, I'll adjust my count. Regardless of any rumours or whatever, the probability was there days before. Anyway May's high hasn't been reached yet, so my count hasn't forecast anything, and I don't claim to have forecast anything.


----------



## Out Too Soon

BSD said:
			
		

> Sorry if it is seen to be rude - but does anybody really think even 5% of the 40 million shares were traded today because of a pennant/channel/double chock-top pattern with a bullish mood based on the weak phase of the moon cycle?




I'm in your camp BSD but you forgot the round bottom under the head & shoulders & we wont mention the candles.  

But seriously Oxiana has been good to me I've just decided to take profits on the 2nd half of my holding but will happily jump on again when Sagitarius is in Mars.  

PS: fundamentals dont work either because a lot of ppl dont use them to trade which is a double edged sword for us. i.e the market isnt run on common sense.  I'm not complaining, it makes life interesting.


----------



## MalteseBull

Mr Hegarty was returning from the London Metal Exchange's annual seminar and will be at his desk today. The latest rumours covered a range of possibilities. If it was not Canada's Teck Cominco at $3.60 a share, then it might be US copper giant Phelps Dodge, with the latter also said to be eyeing Pan Australian, which shot 3 ¢, or 11 per cent, higher to 30 ¢.

OXR gonna sky rocket today


----------



## swingstar

Looking forward to the reasons today... looks like everyone forgot about the rumours, and suddenly don't care about metal prices, LOL.


----------



## legs

*Obviously the recent hike in the Ox's price has been all to do with the Exploration success at the Golden Grove operation. It looks much better than Seppon and lots of upside in materials. Heres the ASX release link look for yourself: http://www.corporatefile.com.au/doc...s%20Golden%20Grove%20Operation%2013.10.06.pdf * 

Looks like the market got a sniff of this before the release?? hmmmmm maybe you chartists just got lucky?


----------



## swingstar

*Obviously the recent hike in the Ox's price has been all to do with traders jumping on a very common entry signal--a breakout of a pennant. Heres the chart look for yourself: http://www.futile.com/chart.gif*  

Looks like traders saw it happening and jumped on?? hmmmmm maybe you fundies just got lucky?

Or the EW version:

*Obviously the recent hike in the Ox's price has been all to do with transactions entering the fabric of the market, and by communicating transactional data to investors, joined the chain of causes of others' behaviour. Heres the chart look for yourself: http://www.futile.com/chart.gif*  

Looks like the market saw it happening and followed the herd?? hmmmmm maybe you fundies just got lucky?



Anyway, no fundies have answered my question. Why didn't the buying continue between the hours of 10-4 on Friday--does everyone have a short memory?


----------



## BSD

Plenty of hot money that went in on Thursday afternoon came out when OXR management gave denials on takeover approaches

40m traded on Thursday
26m traded on Friday

Holding up very nicely and remains cheap regardless of a bidder coming


----------



## swingstar

Gee you fundies, always disagreeing. legs up there says it was due to exploration success. Which one is it?? 

Ok, enough of the reasons or at least disparaging others' analysis techniques. Hopefully, people with an open mind will now see that there are many possible reasons for the recent spike, and that no one's analysis is necessarily more credible.

Edit: BTW, I see an announcement here regarding takeover speculation from 26/9. What was any different on Thurs? Also, the response from the exec came out Friday, probably hours after the market had sold OXR off already. In fact it opened low and fell in the opening, and stayed low all day.


----------



## rederob

swingstar said:
			
		

> Hopefully, people with an open mind will now see that there are many possible reasons for the recent spike, and that no one's analysis is necessarily more credible.



It's really a bit silly!
Spikes occur as a result of unforeseen events, as a rule.
Or, or known events, where timing (and knowledge) is wholly in the hands of the company itself.
We know that OXR has aggressive drilling taking place at a number of different, highly prospective locations.  They probably have a much better chance finding something pretty good (usually because they are close to an area of known quantity/quality) than the explorer with a small budget and huge unexplored tenements.
However, for OXR to move sharply in price will take a gigantic find as with over a billion shares on issue, getting traction will not be so easy.
On the other hand, with so many takeovers now in train, a good rumour here and there can do wonders.
My only concern about the techies when it comes to commodities is that the underlying factors of a company are ignored in favour of sheer price action/volume.
Frankly if OXR goes up or down in the next week or month it is of no concern to me.  I know OXR continues to have excellent unhedged sales of metals that are high-priced by every historical standard.  In the case of lead from Golden Grove, it is selling at all time highs, while zinc is just a few cents shy of its all time high.
I am not sure what swingstar wants from fundamental analysts: We don't (or should not) use the info to trade on a short term basis.  A possible exception right now is in relation to zinc or nickel-based equities that appear to be exposed to constantly increasing metal prices, with an underlying expectation that any retrace represents a good buying opportunity.


----------



## BSD

rederob said:
			
		

> We don't (or should not) use the info to trade on a short term basis.




Exactly the reason we were buyers at $2.50 and not sellers


----------



## swingstar

rederob said:
			
		

> I am not sure what swingstar wants from fundamental analysts:




I have no beef with FA. Read back a few pages; I was simply providing a counter argument from a TA point of view, which was provoked. 

Let's just let it rest, shall we?


----------



## nizar

swingstar

i reckon the move in OXR price was to do with the GG announcement and takeover speculation. if there was no announcements or fundamental news during this time, then id agree its because of Elliots waves hands down.

still, u did call it and turns out it was a great call, hope u made big $$$


----------



## swingstar

nizar said:
			
		

> swingstar
> 
> i reckon the move in OXR price was to do with the GG announcement and takeover speculation. if there was no announcements or fundamental news during this time, then id agree its because of Elliots waves hands down.
> 
> still, u did call it and turns out it was a great call, hope u made big $$$




Hi nizar

I haven't called anything yet. I labelled a possible EW count which was refuted by a much more experienced practitioner. Nevertheless, the target of my count is past May's high--and no, I haven't traded it (I don't use EW live yet). 

If my count is correct, what happened on Thursday has little meaning in the larger picture--the uptrend will probably continue regardless of any events or news that (arguably) support it. 

Cheers


----------



## legs

Simple really,
I bought OXR at 0.80 cents on the back of its Sepon mine exploration and drilling results. Owen Hegarty had great balls to play the government of Laos the way he did and managed it greatly and continues to do so. No chart analysis  back then could have possibly foreseen the results, but yes the market reaction to the results makes these charts, so we work hand in hand. WE techies read the results and purchase as we see value. You then buy on our move, so one could say you are a step behind, suits me! I haven't sold a single share since my original purchase and plan to hold them for a while yet as I believe they are still very cheap.  :grinsking


----------



## rederob

legs said:
			
		

> WE techies read the results and purchase as we see value. You then buy on our move, so one could say you are a step behind, suits me! I haven't sold a single share since my original purchase and plan to hold them for a while yet as I believe they are still very cheap.  :grinsking



Techies would generally have sold between May 16 and May 21 when 2 gaps were filled on the way down, sharply down.
My last purchase of OXR was on 22 May, for the record, but I began buying when OXR was under 80cents. It now accounts for over 20% of my total share holdings.
In fact many techies would have bailed well beforehand on stop losses.
Thereafter, any techie silly enough to hold would have needed large balls after OXR fell below support around September 13, and then created a lower low on September 21.


----------



## rederob

I did wonder if legs meant "fundies", instead of "techies".
A Freudian mistake, perhaps!


----------



## legs

rederob said:
			
		

> I did wonder if legs meant "fundies", instead of "techies".
> A Freudian mistake, perhaps!




It was early, sorry it was a mistake.. lesson one..dont reply after a 12hr nightshift...lol   Your correct rederob..


----------



## legs

Where do our chart analysists see Oxiana heading now after the last few moves upwards???   :burn:


----------



## swingstar

legs said:
			
		

> Where do our chart analysists see Oxiana heading now after the last few moves upwards???   :burn:




Too early to tell from an EW perspective. Nick had a wave 5 at the peak in May, so we may have further corrective (sideways, volatile) movement ahead.


----------



## swingstar

Looks to have found support on that trend... 

(ignore the EW count)

Edit: In the last few mins has just touched the high at point B. Up 8% for the day.


----------



## legs

Up 9.03% with 27,430,431 shares traded with an average daily trade of 11,272,900. Waiting for the usual Seargeant Shultz response from Oxiana, "we know nothing" of a takeover.


----------



## PorscheACE

Whats with the massive jump in share price last few hours of trade? Does someone know whats happening to this beauty?


----------



## legs

Can someone confirm that the last trade for the day was a 1,250,000  trade? Was it purchase or sell???


----------



## MalteseBull

legs said:
			
		

> Can someone confirm that the last trade for the day was a 1,250,000  trade? Was it purchase or sell???




it's more than likely to be a purchase considering the massive volume and gain it made today...isn't this the first sign of a take-over target?

Look at Vision Systems, there was an initial stake purchase in it followed by an announcement a few days later..


OXR much undervalued considering their latest 3Q results..

I am tipping $4 by end of the year


----------



## PorscheACE

WOW!!! Final trades were MASSIVE!!!

Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions 
25-10-2006 04:24 PM $3.391 560100 $1,899,299.100 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 

25-10-2006 04:17 PM $3.391 1221500 $4,142,106.500 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 

$6 Million dollars of shares purchased at an average cost of $3.391 and high of $3.53.....SOME BIG NEWS FOR SURE...Thoughts people??? 

GO OX GO!!!


----------



## MalteseBull

PorscheACE said:
			
		

> WOW!!! Final trades were MASSIVE!!!
> 
> Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions
> 25-10-2006 04:24 PM $3.391 560100 $1,899,299.100 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed
> 
> 25-10-2006 04:17 PM $3.391 1221500 $4,142,106.500 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed
> 
> $6 Million dollars of shares purchased at an average cost of $3.391 and high of $3.53.....SOME BIG NEWS FOR SURE...Thoughts people???
> 
> GO OX GO!!!




thoughts....$4


----------



## swingstar

PorscheACE said:
			
		

> WOW!!! Final trades were MASSIVE!!!
> 
> Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions
> 25-10-2006 04:24 PM $3.391 560100 $1,899,299.100 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed
> 
> 25-10-2006 04:17 PM $3.391 1221500 $4,142,106.500 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed
> 
> $6 Million dollars of shares purchased at an average cost of $3.391 and high of $3.53.....SOME BIG NEWS FOR SURE...Thoughts people???
> 
> GO OX GO!!!




Third big day like this in as many weeks... so I'm not too excited. Tomorrow will be interesting, as it's closed right on the high made in July, so will be interesting to see if it retreats (like it has been) or pushes through. It's a very strong uptrend, so I think any counter-trend will be short-lived.


----------



## legs

I am tipping close to $4 by the end of today if the last few trades are anything to go by. Surely the momentum can stay for the early trading day.


----------



## Nicks

I just picked up some, I think at this price it is good value, Gold is holding and Zinc reserves are thin, next year should be a bumper for OXR.


----------



## Nicks

You know, I was thinking about this a bit more....

Im not sure how big a producer of Zinc OXR is, but I understand it is a reasonably large player. Now if ZFX forecasts it has suffered a production hold up, which will affect Zinc inventories and hence Zinc price, and as a result its SP rises due to the extra profit it will make from Zinc supply v demand, then surely this is even more so for others such as OXR that havent suffered a production impact and yet will benefit from the reduction in output from ZFX!? One would think if ZFX SP is rising due to the lower inventorues due to its own proudction output (catch 22) then others such as OXR SP are sure to follow suit at an even greater magnitude! This would mean that in OXR is undervalued in the short to mid (now to Q4 2007) so a SP increase to $4 or $5 could easily be achieved as we seee an increase in EPS and value of the company.


----------



## Out Too Soon

Very sensible reasoning Nicks. Only problem is I have come to the conclusion that the market doesn't run on common sense. Lots of profit taking today on the ASX all over inc OXR it seems $3.29 now, drops much more & I'll have to get back on board, I sold on the 13th, peaked on T/O rumour.


----------



## bvbfan

Well I've taken this opportunity to buy back my Nov 3.75calls and also gone long via CFDs


----------



## nizar

Nicks said:
			
		

> You know, I was thinking about this a bit more....
> 
> Im not sure how big a producer of Zinc OXR is, but I understand it is a reasonably large player. Now if ZFX forecasts it has suffered a production hold up, which will affect Zinc inventories and hence Zinc price, and as a result its SP rises due to the extra profit it will make from Zinc supply v demand, then surely this is even more so for others such as OXR that havent suffered a production impact and yet will benefit from the reduction in output from ZFX!? One would think if ZFX SP is rising due to the lower inventorues due to its own proudction output (catch 22) then others such as OXR SP are sure to follow suit at an even greater magnitude! This would mean that in OXR is undervalued in the short to mid (now to Q4 2007) so a SP increase to $4 or $5 could easily be achieved as we seee an increase in EPS and value of the company.




OXRs GG mines 140ktonnes of zinc (metal?) per year
Century mines about 550ktonnes

But that being said, OXR probably the 2nd biggest zinc producer on the asx. Too bad its not a pure play, or it would be about five bucks by now.


----------



## legs

Nice rebound so far today picking up some ground lost over past few trading days.
1:09pm 

Code  Last $ +/-    Bid    Offer  Open  High  Low    Volume 
 OXR  3.420 0.120 3.410 3.430 3.300 3.450 3.300 5,512,495


----------



## Rafa

Has the market forgotten about this share???
Zinc, Copper and Gold...

Something is not right here...


----------



## chops_a_must

I think so.

Hegarty is a genius. Has great reserves. Rights to seriously rich deposits of everything in China. 

I think it has gone under the radar because it is not just a zinc miner, but is a zinc PRODUCER, so it is going to be cashing in on the high prices, not just running on speculation.

I got an absolute bargain with this one.


----------



## legs

*Re: OXR - Oxiana Limited CHART??*

Could someone provide a chart for this... is there a convergence happening here??? Thanks


----------



## Sean K

Not sure about any convergance?

Bit of spt there at $3.25, resistance at $3.50. Not too much to tell really.


----------



## Rafa

cheers for the chart...

the SP of OXR (and BHP to a lesser extent as well) is really surprising...
i am at a loss to explain it.

i certainly don't intend to put trading money in this (already have long term holdings) unless i can see a uptrend in place, as there are bigger winners elsewhere... (u, zn, etc)  but surely, fundamentally, this company would have to be a big BUY at current prices.


----------



## chops_a_must

I'm a bit of a novice. What does the convergence show?


----------



## rederob

Rafa said:
			
		

> cheers for the chart...
> 
> the SP of OXR (and BHP to a lesser extent as well) is really surprising...
> i am at a loss to explain it.
> 
> i certainly don't intend to put trading money in this (already have long term holdings) unless i can see a uptrend in place, as there are bigger winners elsewhere... (u, zn, etc)  but surely, fundamentally, this company would have to be a big BUY at current prices.



Rafa
Brief, accurate and right on.
Only copper will let OXR down near term, but every other metal it mines is jumping ahead in price in leaps and bounds.
A $5 stock in the making, marked down because it is a camel.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

OXR seems pretty fair value ATM Rederob, whats your call?, 
or will it remain a camel for a while yet........!


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:
			
		

> A $5 stock in the making




Or an attractive takeover target...


----------



## rederob

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> OXR seems pretty fair value ATM Rederob, whats your call?,
> or will it remain a camel for a while yet........!



Freebees
I think it could get a little cheaper.
But I am reasonably sure that it has better potential than most mining stock, except a few uranium and zinc pure plays.
I rate it as a definite buy at present price, but not an "accumulate".
With momentum back in gold, it may be that OXR's copper values get put to one side.  When this company puts out its next annual report, we will be in no doubt about its cash generating ability (I am in no doubt at the moment).
In the meantime, many other "sexy" companies are in the limelight: I think they should get their 15 minutes of fame, while OXR holds number one place in the record books.


----------



## Sean K

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I'm a bit of a novice. What does the convergence show?




Not sure what legs was talking about chops.

Convergence usually refers to MACD converging meaning the sp is flatening out and is maybe going to change direction one way or the other.


----------



## legs

kennas said:
			
		

> Not sure what legs was talking about chops.
> 
> Convergence usually refers to MACD converging meaning the sp is flatening out and is maybe going to change direction one way or the other.




Kennas, it is exactly what i was talking about... as you have described, without a chart I was unsure.


----------



## chops_a_must

Cheers.


----------



## legs

kennas said:
			
		

> Not sure about any convergance?
> 
> Bit of spt there at $3.25, resistance at $3.50. Not too much to tell really.





Looks to me like it was flattening out and has made a major move or was it just the copper price????


----------



## Sean K

I think POC is the answer to OXRs latest run down. NCM has been effected too.

Should be some support above $2.85ish to $3.00, but next servious level of support looks to be $2.50. Resistance at $3.50 on the way back up. 

MACD negative divergence. 

If copper keeps falling, copper lelated stocks are going to be flirting with dangerously low support levels not seen since the May June sell off. Concerning.  

BHP is approaching around $26.00 and could be heading to $24.00.....I think this lack of support for the best company in the sector is effecting every commod related stock. With XJO looking toppy IMO, it won't take long for a big sell off in the US to crump our market, and eveything will go with it. That's my doom story for the day.


----------



## RichKid

kennas said:
			
		

> ............
> ............
> 
> BHP is approaching around $26.00 and could be heading to $24.00.....I think this lack of support for the best company in the sector is effecting every commod related stock. With XJO looking toppy IMO, it won't take long for a big sell off in the US to crump our market, and eveything will go with it. That's my doom story for the day.




I like the last line, sounds good Kennas! hahaha, trying to preserve a sense of humour, I'm going to get burnt a bit as well if commodities fall, but then maybe better buying later on. Nice to see OXR doing its ranging thing again.


----------



## nizar

RichKid said:
			
		

> Nice to see OXR doing its ranging thing again.




Yeh u could probably make a living range trading OXR and LHG!
Just buy at 2.75-2.80 and unload at 3.00.


----------



## legs

Some big volumes today when OXR went below 3.00 some big 600k orders going through. Good support at this level good to see.


----------



## bvbfan

Freeport takeover of Phelps Dodge got it going today


----------



## legs

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Freeport takeover of Phelps Dodge got it going today



Bad Link....what has freeport or Phelps Dodge got to do with anything????


----------



## bvbfan

Bloomberg article here


As for link, well OXR was trading at 2.97 when I saw that come across the wires, whatelse will cause the run in that amount of time???


Also merger of copper majors continues the rationalisation on the miners, only downside was that I saw Phelps Dodge as a potential bidder for OXR if any other party showed their hand


----------



## Out Too Soon

Why is the copper price struggling, is there an over supply, a lack of demand?


----------



## Sean K

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Why is the copper price struggling, is there an over supply, a lack of demand?



Inventories are increasing although this may not be a true sign of the supply/demand equation.

*Don’t Be Fooled By Copper Weakness*
FN Arena News - November 20 2006

By Greg Peel

It was copper carnage last week as a continuing trashing of the copper price in London and New York saw 4% wiped off diversified BHP Billiton (BHP), 6% off diversified Rio Tinto (RIO), and 20% off pure-play Aditya Birla (ABY).

Copper inventories have increased 70% since the start of the year, causing the market to become panicky about the end of burgeoning demand, the end of the commodities boom, the end of the world as we know it etc. However UBS analysts want to put things into perspective.

Firstly, the increase in inventories means there is now three weeks worth of consumption in warehouses, up from two at the end of last year. Hardly a glut, particularly when you consider cycle high stocks historically run out to 9-12 weeks. This represents 152kt of metal at the LME, compared to the 20 year average of 325kt.

Secondly, UBS global analysis suggests the "apparent" weakness of Chinese consumption – the real panic factor – is due to destocking only and is not a genuine demand reduction. Destocking has meant a fall in imports.

UBS remains convinced the commodities boom will continue and that Chinese demand will be strong for some time yet. Any weakness in US demand will be offset by Europe and Japan, the analysts believe. A good indication in copper market strength is the recent abandonment of price participation in the negotiation of TC/RC charges, which has put copper producers on the front foot.


----------



## Out Too Soon

Thanks Kennas, It would seem that copper produces are probably a bargain at present, esp Oxiana.


----------



## legs

Can someone confirm that Oxiana had a  purchase of  a parcel of 10,000,000 very early in the trading day today?? Is this a takeover poisitoning move??


----------



## MalteseBull

stronger gold price and weaker US$ should see the OX at $4 by end of year


----------



## swingstar

Here's an adjusted count. 

I think we may be beginning a wave iii of 3 of (5) == bullish!


----------



## rederob

swingstar said:
			
		

> Here's an adjusted count.
> 
> I think we may be beginning a wave iii of 3 of (5) == bullish!



may i "interpret" you:$4 in first quarter 2007


----------



## legs

I took option package today to exercise at $3.25 on 22/2/07 but cost me $0.37 so take note and we'll see how i go. 50 contracts (50,000 shares) cost $18,500.   I've been waiting for a good package and 260 odd packages (260,000 shares) where taken today at this price.


----------



## swingstar

legs said:
			
		

> I took option package today to exercise at $3.25 on 22/2/07 but cost me $0.37 so take note and we'll see how i go. 50 contracts (50,000 shares) cost $18,500.   I've been waiting for a good package and 260 odd packages (260,000 shares) where taken today at this price.




Sounds like a good bet. 

For my count to be invalidated, it'd have to hit $2.91 before another two decent impulse waves (similar or larger in size to the trend from Sep low to Oct high).


----------



## MalteseBull

should explode today,

$4 by end of year imo


----------



## legs

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> should explode today,
> 
> $4 by end of year imo



 Just as a matter of interest, why did you think it would explode today??


----------



## Sean K

Will struggle to get through $3.50 unless Au and Cu continue to climb, and/or a takeover offer comes. I think there will be technical correction in gold soon. It may get to around $660. If it breaks through $660 before Xmas then the Ox may clear $4.00 as well. I think gold may get close, but then retreat slightly.


----------



## swingstar

Fairly low volume on this recent pullback which indicates a counter-trend.


----------



## Out Too Soon

I know you always get weird figures before open but OXR is showing bid $3.30 & offer $2 t5his morning.


----------



## Caliente

i think someone mentioned this before, but you can make a living just trading the swings of Oxiana.
- I hold (this is my oldest baby  : )


----------



## nizar

Caliente said:
			
		

> i think someone mentioned this before, but you can make a living just trading the swings of Oxiana.
> - I hold (this is my oldest baby  : )




I think so too.
LHG and OXR both.


----------



## porkpie324

Yes you can, OXR has been a good trader (one of my better ones) for about the last 6 months I have caught most. The way it works for me is to buy over a number of days say 10ks worth per day but don't over extend yourself use good money management. Then distribute on the top of the upswing over a few days  (or where you think the top is).  I use CFDs for this  as brokerage is lower to a great success and not just with OXR others are MCR, IGO, KZL, SMY, JBM and a few more.  porkpie


----------



## legs

Can anyone confirm that the last trade for the day was over 3,000,000 shares in one package??? Yahoo finance says this happened but you can never trust YAHELL.????


----------



## reece55

Legs
There was a crossed trade post the 16:10 final trade - 2,628,519 by my count.

Details as follows
20/12/2006 5:51	3.159	520395	1643928	XTSXOS
20/12/2006 5:19	3.159	1376380	4347984	XTSXOS
20/12/2006 4:46	3.07	731744	2246454	XTSXOS

Cheers


----------



## swingstar

I think we've just begun wave iii of 3 of (5). Time will tell, but for my count to be validated, we are in for a bullish move. Wave 2 frequently ends in between 50-78.6% retracement of wave 1. 

Notice the low volume from the beginning of wave ii to the anticipated end. Picked up today on a bullish bar.


----------



## chops_a_must

swingstar said:
			
		

> I think we've just begun wave iii of 3 of (5). Time will tell, but for my count to be validated, we are in for a bullish move. Wave 2 frequently ends in between 50-78.6% retracement of wave 1.
> 
> Notice the low volume from the beginning of wave ii to the anticipated end. Picked up today on a bullish bar.



So would be looking for this to get above 3.50 in this cycle?


----------



## swingstar

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> So would be looking for this to get above 3.50 in this cycle?




Minimum price projection for wave iii using the info available (wave i and ii) is around $3.50-60. Don't have a time-frame yet. Only a probability remember... Not at all a certainty.


----------



## chops_a_must

swingstar said:
			
		

> Minimum price projection for wave iii using the info available (wave i and ii) is around $3.50-60. Don't have a time-frame yet. Only a probability remember... Not at all a certainty.



Nah, that's cool. I was just confirming if I had read it correctly.


----------



## chops_a_must

Through resistance at 2.80. Can't see this stopping before 2.60.


----------



## swingstar

I got stopped out (and some) on Friday. It's still possibly a wave 2, but other counts could probably take preference... Either way, too much guess work for a trade at the moment.


----------



## chops_a_must

swingstar said:
			
		

> I got stopped out (and some) on Friday. It's still possibly a wave 2, but other counts could probably take preference... Either way, too much guess work for a trade at the moment.



Is the wave analysis still valid when the underlying fundamentals change significantly, like they have here with copper? Because this was always the danger with OXR.


----------



## swingstar

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Is the wave analysis still valid when the underlying fundamentals change significantly, like they have here with copper? Because this was always the danger with OXR.




As wavepicker mentioned in I think the zinc or gold thread, and Mag has mentioned it to me before, you should definitely take into account other factors. A lesson has certainly been learnt... I took the trade way too early, especially with the bear trend copper was in.

Another thing... There is probably an alternative bearish count, so it would have been wise to take a trade within the parameters of that (if clear) given the copper fall.


----------



## legs

I personally believe copper prices and gold prices can't stay this low for a long period. Do people think the building or infrastructure and housing in China is going to slow down enough to hold these prices? It has been mentioned on many talkback radio finance programs, internet forums and TV shows that stock brokers are tipping the mining giants such as RIO and BHP as good buys at these "low" levels. They are frequently wrong however. I believe it will turn around fast..lets hope I am right.


----------



## Ken

legs?

copper prices are not low...

they are still relatively high compared to 5 years back. there is just uncertainty.


----------



## Sean K

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> should explode today,
> 
> $4 by end of year imo



I'm still waiting for $4.00 by the end of 06. LOL.


----------



## Ken

How wil OXR reach $4?  Commodity prices rise? Exploration takeover?

I bought 1000 shares at $2.90, as i saw them as growth stock.

The company looks to be trading on a very low PE of 9, correct???

And it is one of the success stories on the stock market of 2006, and I see it continuing into 2007 with some patience.

I see OXR reaping the rewards when resources get some stability.


----------



## Sean K

Ken said:
			
		

> How wil OXR reach $4?  Commodity prices rise? Exploration takeover?
> 
> I bought 1000 shares at $2.90, as i saw them as growth stock.
> 
> The company looks to be trading on a very low PE of 9, correct???
> 
> And it is one of the success stories on the stock market of 2006, and I see it continuing into 2007 with some patience.
> 
> I see OXR reaping the rewards when resources get some stability.




Ken, I was taking the P!ss out of MBs post on 1 Dec 06 forecasting $4 for OXR by the end of the year (2006).

One of the reasons why you should not post price targets without some type of justification, or forethought. It's fraught with danger.


----------



## Ken

haha


----------



## reece55

Chops
I agree with you in saying that we will probably see OXR head back to about the  2.60 range. Pity, because fundamentally this Company has a lot going for it. Their latest drill results were fantastic and I wouldn't be surprised if they are able to extend there already defined resources in Golden Grove and Prominent Hill in coming years. However, the market is the only indicator in our world..... Todays sell off on high volume, with a close on near the bottom of the range indicates sellers. + All you have to do is view total market depth to see what is going on - at about 3, OXR had 2.3 Mil Buyers and 8.3 Mil sellers - not a good sign...

Watch for a bounce though - OXR is a great trading share, I will be looking for high volume and a tight range at around about the 2.60 for a possible long entry...... For now, I would be staying away.......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## legs

Ken said:
			
		

> legs?
> 
> copper prices are not low...
> 
> they are still relatively high compared to 5 years back. there is just uncertainty.



 If you paid $US8,800 a tonne in May you would think a 40% price reduction to its value now, not low but a BARGAIN!!! Considering demand surely hasn't dropped by 40%, it is what I call cheap, cheap, cheap. If you bought a house in May for $880,000 and now could buy the same house for $570,000 what would you call it??? cheers.


----------



## legs

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Through resistance at 2.80. Can't see this stopping before 2.60.



Oops seemed to be wrong, not by much though...good for us all i suppose that it didn't stay there long, a bargain picked up by the big investers... gold and copper will continue to rebound... my opinion anyhow...


----------



## Ken

Oxiana looks okay to me for a long investment.

Its had incredible backing.


----------



## theasxgorilla

A possible Elliott Wave count on OXR...price projections could be as follows:

50% extention of Wave (iii) of 5 could reach $3.95.

61.8% extention of Wave (iii) of 5 could reach $4.31 (also the 150% extention of wave (i) of 5).

78.6% extention of Wave (iii) of 5 could reach $4.83. (also the 200% extention of wave (i) of 5).


----------



## Sean K

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> A possible Elliott Wave count on OXR...price projections could be as follows:
> 
> 50% extention of Wave (iii) of 5 could reach $3.95.
> 
> 61.8% extention of Wave (iii) of 5 could reach $4.31 (also the 150% extention of wave (i) of 5).
> 
> 78.6% extention of Wave (iii) of 5 could reach $4.83. (also the 200% extention of wave (i) of 5).



Gorilla, interesting, but I would have started wave 1 from the $1.00 mark, just before the bull rise, which changes your count slightly but is no less bullish....

MACD is saying bad Karma....

 

Do I have no idea??


----------



## reece55

Kennas
I am not an elliott wave man by any accounts (studying the theory at the moment), but todays close doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Plus, all technical indicators point to distribution and bearish divergence, not bullish IMO. So if the prediction of a higher target is true, I think we might have one more move down before we zoom ahead.... I still await a dip to 2.70 - 2.60, but I could be drastically wrong here......

Cheers


----------



## Rafa

i am liking this elliot wave count, but like reece, i too am surprised by the virtual non effect of the doubling of the resource based annouced yesterday.

i am a long term holder of this stock, since the $1 days, so i'm certainly not planning on selling...

But, its hard to consider buying some more in the present market conditions.


----------



## Sean K

reece55 said:
			
		

> Kennas
> I am not an elliott wave man by any accounts (studying the theory at the moment), but todays close doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Plus, all technical indicators point to distribution and bearish divergence, not bullish IMO. So if the prediction of a higher target is true, I think we might have one more move down before we zoom ahead.... I still await a dip to 2.70 - 2.60, but I could be drastically wrong here......
> 
> Cheers



I'm just learning too, so this could be way off. I think wave 3 supposed to be the strongest wave in an uptrend so the first pattern doesn't really fit in. But if it is 'generally' true, then this potential wave 3 up leg might be strong....maybe.


----------



## theasxgorilla

Wave 5 can be extended ie. longer than Wave 3.  That is perfectly legal.  Consider my example chart of WOW in the WES thread (wrong place really, but I was attempting to demonstrate a point about the upside potential of WES).

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=111427&postcount=45

Kennas, your count could be valid, and does not invalidate my count.  Your count (to my interpretation) is the 5-wave sub-division of the Wave 3 in my count.  The 5th wave is extended, but as mentioned already, this IS _legal_ and likely given that the price of gold was also experiencing bull conditions around this time.

If Wave 4 is yet to complete it is a high likelihood that my count will be invalidated by more sideways consolidation.

I would not be trading this myself right now but lets see what time brings.


----------



## millionplusmate

*Oxiana Copper Blues*

Oh boy...is there a crystal ball dude out there!!! Whats the go with copper? Im getting mixed messages...My accountant who is always on the ball reckons copper is going to bottom down $3000 by end of year. Other pundits are blaming the falling car market and housing market in US...the latest is that South American mine sites have stockpiled heavily in last 5 years but have pushed production along at the same time. Ive done alright over the last 6 months but would be loving some good advice otherwise the new house isnt looking so rosy. Thanks in anticipation of some fresh advice.

Bradley


----------



## Kruegs

Hi there... I have purchased some Call Options on OXR today ($2.75 exp June), hoping it to rally on the back of Gold.  Does anyone have a feel for how heavily OXR is influenced by the Copper price, as opposed to Gold. Any current sentiments overall, as to what OXR will be doing in the next few weeks?

Cheers,
Kruegs


----------



## rederob

Kruegs said:
			
		

> Hi there... I have purchased some Call Options on OXR today ($2.75 exp June), hoping it to rally on the back of Gold.  Does anyone have a feel for how heavily OXR is influenced by the Copper price, as opposed to Gold. Any current sentiments overall, as to what OXR will be doing in the next few weeks?
> 
> Cheers,
> Kruegs



Kruegs
I think you will find Golden Grove delivers OXR its strongest result over the last quarter.
So you need to look at OXR's silver, lead and zinc!
Because of the historical precedence of OXR to copper and gold, its share price will move to each of their movements: I expect that might change in the second half of this year.


----------



## mlennox

also keep in the forefront of your minds reporting on wednesday.....

OXR doesn't tend to do much after announcements, and the ceo is known as a spruker however they've definately got fundamental upside however much of a battering it takes technically its still a ?? stock IMHO and a potential takeover target


----------



## reece55

A ?? stock mlennox's......................... LOL

OXR is a great Company and Hegarty is a great leader at the helm. But $6 bucks.... mate, that is a ridiculous price target for this Company at present. There is no way a prospective buyer would pay anywhere near this much for the Company - it has great assets, but it isn't worth that much...... $4 would be a decent target for 07 IMO, unless they find something that isn't in the knowledge of the market place at the moment..........

Cheers


----------



## mlennox

mlennox said:
			
		

> also keep in the forefront of your minds reporting on wednesday.....
> 
> OXR doesn't tend to do much after announcements, and the ceo is known as a spruker however they've definately got fundamental upside however much of a battering it takes technically its still a ?? stock IMHO and a potential takeover target




Ok 3.60 is more realistic short term (1-2 yrs) but long term (3-6) i'd say 6 bucks is more then achievable.... and i thought i was short sighted day trading this thing haha


----------



## Sean K

Gents, I had to remove the price prediction. I don't think it was done with any ill intent, but ASF policy is that you have to give an analysis for a prediction. Hope it does get to those levels for you! kennas


----------



## reece55

OK mate, now I am with you - Whist I don't like to make price targets, I do believe OXR is a must have in any ASX portfolio - as I said, great stock with a great team paving the way for the future........ Certainly always on my watch list.

Cheers


----------



## mlennox

Dec2005A 	Dec2006E 	Dec2007E 	Dec2008E 	Dec2009E 	
 Revenues (A$m) 	395.7 	1,177.6 	1,334.9 	1,119.0 	1,191.4 	 
  	EBITDA (core) (A$m) 	172.5 	783.9 	944.5 	699.5 	574.0 	 
  	EBIT (core) (A$m) 	120.4 	683.6 	839.3 	579.7 	364.0 	 
  	Net income (A$m) 	77.7 	481.6 	510.2 	344.3 	212.6 	 
  	EPS (pre-abnormals) (A$) 	0.06 	0.37 	0.37 	0.25 	0.15 	 
  	EPS (reported) (A$) 	0.06 	0.37 	0.37 	0.25 	0.15 	 
  	P/E (pre-abnormals) 	19.10 	7.79 	7.74 	11.47 	18.58 	 
  	EV/EBITDA (core) 	9.09 	5.19 	4.16 	5.50 	6.09 	 
  	EPS growth (pre-abnormals) 	944.3 	551.7 	0.63 	- 	-38.3 	 
  	Net DPS (A$) 	0.01 	0.07 	0.07 	0.05 	0.03 	 
  	Net Div. Yield (%) 	0.92 	2.29 	2.58 	1.74 	1.08 	 

mmm credit suisse downgraded to $3.00 after there recent announcement, however UBS still rates it neutral 2 with a PT of 3.60.....


----------



## rederob

kennas said:
			
		

> Gents, I had to remove the price prediction. I don't think it was done with any ill intent, but ASF policy is that you have to give an analysis for a prediction. Hope it does get to those levels for you! kennas



If OXR respects support - presently at $2.80 - in 20 months time it will double in price.
This would also leave it at well above $6 within three years.
Of course if copper and gold prices head quickly north again, a repeat of last year's run to May 2006 would put OXR above $6 before the end of the year.
I predict that OXR will trade at the same current price as BHP, based on trend, at a future date.


----------



## chops_a_must

rederob said:
			
		

> I predict that OXR will trade at the same current price as BHP, based on trend, at a future date.



Lol! Considering they are both heading south, BHP investors are going to be very very disappointed.


----------



## Sean K

rederob said:
			
		

> If OXR respects support - presently at $2.80 - in 20 months time it will double in price.
> This would also leave it at well above $6 within three years.
> Of course if copper and gold prices head quickly north again, a repeat of last year's run to May 2006 would put OXR above $6 before the end of the year.
> I predict that OXR will trade at the same current price as BHP, based on trend, at a future date.



I'm a long term commodities bull in that I believe that even with a US recession, Chindia is a much longer term story that is almost self perpetuating - once the middle class are suffient to start buying all the trinkets that the US currently do. This may be a 5-20 year story. So, if as part of that process copper keeps appreciating, then maybe. Gold may appreciate until the almost decline of the US and China takes over as the new ruler of the universe, and they have 'World Series Ping Pong', and 'Mr Universe' is a competition to see who the smallest guy in the room is.

I currently doubt OXR will be around by then though. Someone else will buy them out when the valuations are right. That might be before it gets anywhere near $6.


----------



## mlennox

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Lol! Considering they are both heading south, BHP investors are going to be very very disappointed.




mate you got no idea, institutions are buying the crap out of BHP right now... so whilst you follow the herd i'll follow the wolves.


----------



## chops_a_must

mlennox said:
			
		

> mate you got no idea, institutions are buying the crap out of BHP right now... so whilst you follow the herd i'll follow the wolves



Oh right, that's why it is setting new highs.


----------



## Gundini

mlennox said:
			
		

> mate you got no idea, institutions are buying the crap out of BHP right now... so whilst you follow the herd i'll follow the wolves




Well, I'm sure the insto's already have substantial holdings in BHP, but I see no evidence of "buying the crap out of BHP", but I do see BHP aggressively buying their own stock back daily.


----------



## mlennox

Security	TotVal	NetVal	NetVol	#Buys	BuyVol	BuyPrice	#Sells	SellVol	SellPrice	#Trades	Market%
	MARKET	10228941519.2873	0	0	177117	1553585858	3.292	177117	1553585858	3.292	354234	100
	TOTAL	10228941519.2873	0	0	177117	1553585858	3.292	177117	1553585858	3.292	354234	100
	EQUITY	10084075491.6693	0	0	173502	1472504324	3.4241	173502	1472504324	3.4241	347004	100
	BHP	817041951.4514	0	0	5170	16530837	24.7127	5170	16530837	24.7127	10340	100


----------



## Bush Trader

Back on the topic, Bradley I hope this answers your question somewhat. (See attached)


Cheers

millionplusmate "Oh boy...is there a crystal ball dude out there!!! Whats the go with copper? Im getting mixed messages...My accountant who is always on the ball reckons copper is going to bottom down $3000 by end of year. Other pundits are blaming the falling car market and housing market in US...the latest is that South American mine sites have stockpiled heavily in last 5 years but have pushed production along at the same time. Ive done alright over the last 6 months but would be loving some good advice otherwise the new house isnt looking so rosy. Thanks in anticipation of some fresh advice.

Bradley"


----------



## chops_a_must

Any thoughts on today's announcement? Looks pretty good to me, a near doubling of gold reserves...


----------



## j4mesa

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on today's announcement? Looks pretty good to me, a near doubling of gold reserves...




Yes,chops the ann. sound good, but then the price action is not......


----------



## Kruegs

Any idea on why the price has not tracked upwards in the last week or so, considering the Gold price has hung on over the $640 barrier, and their announcement about doubling reserves?

Regards,
Mark Krueger


----------



## mmmmining

OXR has got an excellent deal, a lot of gold resources, cash, and uranium exposure. 57% of holding in NEL is worth about $100m. It just removed one of my concern that is OXR is more copper that Gold. Now it is in better shape.

Now we have to find another AGC...


----------



## chops_a_must

j4mesa said:
			
		

> Yes,chops the ann. sound good, but then the price action is not......



I'm out. Hard to see what is going to move the SP if this sort of stuff doesn't. Will be looking at getting back in if it gets to about 2.60. Unfortunately, that's where I see it heading.


----------



## j4mesa

Unfortunately, I am stuck with these shares because I linked it with Macquarie Hi-notes.

But with the outlook of their projects, OXR looks good for long term......


----------



## Out Too Soon

I'm in! (again)    Timing is everything. :


----------



## Ken

anyone believe Oxiana can get into the top 50 on the asx in 2007.

i beleive we are seeing a switch back to resources at the moment.  with telstra dropping (as the defensive stock),  i have picked OXR as my stock for the next 12 months.


----------



## chops_a_must

Ken said:
			
		

> i beleive we are seeing a switch back to resources at the moment.  with telstra dropping (as the defensive stock),  i have picked OXR as my stock for the next 12 months.



Big call. Lol! I think we may see a correction in resource stocks Monday.


----------



## rederob

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> I'm in! (again)    Timing is everything. :



So it is!


----------



## Ken

so u think oxr  is over priced


----------



## chops_a_must

Ken said:
			
		

> so u think oxr  is over priced



Nope. It just has bad price action at a time where there is negative pressure on base metals. So the effects will probably be harshly felt on this stock. I have no doubt about it as a long term stock though.


----------



## Ken

with there latest staking in AGC, i think it will benefit greatly.


----------



## chops_a_must

Ken said:
			
		

> with there latest staking in AGC, i think it will benefit greatly.



Yeah, once the market realises they are more of a gold than a copper play, it should turn. But recently, really good announcements have had no effect, so I decided to get out. It's a pity really, because it is a great stock.


----------



## porkpie324

OXR is at an interesting point the bottom of this years trading range, which way it goes next week is worth watching if it goes up it will be worth a long CFD position down and 2.50 is the next res, the trading vol has picked up recently, but at the mo I'm out of OXR .porkpie


----------



## rederob

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Yeah, once the market realises they are more of a gold than a copper play, it should turn. But recently, really good announcements have had no effect, so I decided to get out. It's a pity really, because it is a great stock.



chops
OXR in 2007 will be lucky to make a profit from gold unless the POG increases dramatically.  You can find out why if you read their recent report.
It is a good stock, but not for anyone buying into it in the near term.


----------



## haemitite

rederob said:
			
		

> chops
> OXR in 2007 will be lucky to make a profit from gold unless the POG increases dramatically. You can find out why if you read their recent report.
> It is a good stock, but not for anyone buying into it in the near term.



... which is what I predicted well before their recent reporting

your $6 prediction is looking a little ambitious now rederob.  Much the same as your PH comments

I sold covered calls on my holding back in Dec, no cause to regret that yet


----------



## Ken

is OXR still a takeover target at this point in time?

how much of the current share price carries takeover speculation?


----------



## Kruegs

Hi there,

Oxiana seems to be taking a real hammering again today.  I have reduced my exposure to the share, as it appears to possibly be heading for the lower resistance point of around $2.50.  
A few weeks ago, I also bought some June Call options ($3.00).  I will hang onto these at this stage, on the premise (hope) that the stock should bounce back at some stage soon.  Any thoughts on what the outlook for Oxiana is looking like over the next 6 months?  Would you consider the current price weakness to be a result of the market's reaction to the recent acquisition?
It is frustrating as the Gold price appears to be gaining upwards traction again, yet it is definitely not taking Oxiana with it at this stage.

Regards,
Mark Krueger


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Hang in there kruegs, I got on some today at $2.69. The perennial takeover target and now looks like a solid gold producer with the addition/merger?


----------



## reece55

Well, the Ox has headed to the place I thought it would head to - the 2.60 - 2.70 mark. Is there value at these levels - I personally think so, but the broader feeling towards the miners at the moment is fairly negative. Volume spike today, we haven't seen this much volume since June when the stock just about crapped itself. Last time we had choppy action back straight back up - we are at a crucial level here, it could bounce back or head down rapidly. Personally, I favour another move north!

Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Depends what influences OXR the most now, ie is it a copper miner with a bit of gold or a gold miner with some copper?


----------



## Ken

what does this mean??
 EXercise Put @ $3.50



Last 10 Trades Help 

The last 10 trades* of the security you selected are detailed below.

 ASX Code:    (Search for ASX Code)    


All Ordinaries ASX Time Market Status Legend 
5,805.1  9.3  07:54 am, 06 February 2007  Pre-Open  Rise Fall 

Oxiana Limited (OXR) 
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.750 23000 $86,250.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 80000 $260,000.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 25000 $81,250.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 1000 $3,250.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 19000 $61,750.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 1000 $3,250.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 8000 $26,000.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 1000 $3,250.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 36000 $117,000.000 Exercise Putl 
06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 3000 $9,750.000 Exercise Putl


----------



## Halba

stocks a bit of a doggy? better in the bank IMHO!  


mkt cap about 4 billion for mainly copper, and a bit of gold. not much zinc.


----------



## legs

Ken said:
			
		

> what does this mean??
> EXercise Put @ $3.50
> 
> 
> 
> Last 10 Trades Help
> 
> The last 10 trades* of the security you selected are detailed below.
> 
> ASX Code:    (Search for ASX Code)
> 
> 
> All Ordinaries ASX Time Market Status Legend
> 5,805.1  9.3  07:54 am, 06 February 2007  Pre-Open  Rise Fall
> 
> Oxiana Limited (OXR)
> Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.750 23000 $86,250.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 80000 $260,000.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 25000 $81,250.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 1000 $3,250.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 19000 $61,750.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 1000 $3,250.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 8000 $26,000.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 1000 $3,250.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 36000 $117,000.000 Exercise Putl
> 06-02-2007 07:05 AM $3.250 3000 $9,750.000 Exercise Putl




Wouldnt that be a "put" option?? where you bet the price will fall and you get the difference from the "put" price and the current price?? Looks like they made a killing and they think its at the lower end of the fall. Or their option expired today?


----------



## angela200172

Oxiana seems to be taking a real hammering again today. 2.65   :fan


----------



## Scratch

reece55 said:
			
		

> Well, the Ox has headed to the place I thought it would head to - the 2.60 - 2.70 mark. Is there value at these levels - I personally think so, but the broader feeling towards the miners at the moment is fairly negative. Volume spike today, we haven't seen this much volume since June when the stock just about crapped itself. Last time we had choppy action back straight back up - we are at a crucial level here, it could bounce back or head down rapidly. Personally, I favour another move north!
> 
> Cheers




Reece55, m8, I just hope you are right - haven't seen this many falls since the Grand National!!   AND they get bigger.

Scratch


----------



## reece55

OXR is moving nicely today...... High volume, nice little price kick. In fact, it is the first time in a long time where market depth has shown more buyers than sellers. Macquarie have placed a $3.20 price target today on the back of upgraded copper forecasts and whilst I don't buy on analyst targets, it's certainly nice to have some positive coverage about the place. Personally, I think the results due on 22 Feb will show the market what these guys have really done and its nothing short of incredible, even with the present commodity prices. I am looking for a break of about the $3.00 level to set this one on its way. 

Disclosure: Long position in OXR

Cheers


----------



## Knobby22

reece55 said:
			
		

> Disclosure: Long position in OXR
> 
> Cheers




Duh!

Agree with you though. This company is doing great things.


----------



## Bush Trader

This may be of interest to you long punters, I however think that metals are going to come under more pressure from the hedge fund sell off.

The last time this softened I traded it from $2.65 - $3.50 on this blokes tip, have a read.  

*Wizard Charmed By Oxiana Resources

Source: FN Arena News * - February 09 2007 

The Tech Wizard has no problems in admitting he is an avid reader of FNArena's Australian Broker Call. While he was reading today's edition his interest was awoken by a recommendation upgrade for Oxiana Resources (OXR) by Macquarie.
The wizard says he has been keeping a tight watch on Oxiana for a while now, waiting for a good technical level to buy.
He now believes price action has found solid support at the bottom Bollinger band while long term support is at $2.50.]

The Tech Wizard suspect the Macquarie recommendation upgrade may be the right ingredient to attract fresh buying interest from the market and this should push the shares to the $3.10 level in the next few weeks.
Beyond that key resistance is at $3.55, says The Wizard.


----------



## Ken

very nice graph.

What are the factors that determine whether we are closer to resistance or support? copper prices?  

barriers are meant to be broken at some point...

Would you saying buying around support levels could be dangerous, cause if support is broken, then drop is further and faster.


----------



## legs

Hang on tight here we go ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


----------



## angela200172

legs said:
			
		

> Hang on tight here we go ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^




yes, hold tight OXR, I have top up 30000 more at $2.80, up up ...........thank you .


----------



## Out Too Soon

Gold, copper, even zinc, all back in the good books   I agree Angela but have I the funds to put more into Oxiana? I'll have to scratch around.


----------



## Kruegs

What about some call options?  A little while ago I bought the following :

- $2.75 call exp end of April
- $3.00 call exp end of June

I bought the $3.00 call a little early before OXR bottomed out, so it is trailing a bit at the moment, but I think it should do OK before expiry.  The $2.75 call is already showing a 40%+ profit.

Cheers,
Mark Krueger


----------



## angela200172

OXR will have a report coming on next Monday 19/2/2007, I think that will be a good report as the sp today.  

Angela


----------



## Seneca60BC

I think the report is next thursday.


----------



## legs

Kruegs said:
			
		

> What about some call options?  A little while ago I bought the following :
> 
> - $2.75 call exp end of April
> - $3.00 call exp end of June
> 
> I bought the $3.00 call a little early before OXR bottomed out, so it is trailing a bit at the moment, but I think it should do OK before expiry.  The $2.75 call is already showing a 40%+ profit.
> 
> Cheers,
> Mark Krueger




How is the 2.75 showing a 40% profit while it is currentl 2.89 ????  you paid about $2.00????


----------



## legs

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> I think the report is next thursday.




22nd February 2007, Release of 2006 Full year financial results. 
http://www.oxiana.com.au/UpcomingEvents.asp


----------



## angela200172

legs said:
			
		

> 22nd February 2007, Release of 2006 Full year financial results.
> http://www.oxiana.com.au/UpcomingEvents.asp




Maybe you are right, I have the inf on Yahoo Finance.  

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ce?s=OXR.AX


----------



## Seneca60BC

Hi Angela

Sorry - i'm wrong - your right  - it is indeed monday.

Cheers
Shelton.


----------



## Seneca60BC

legs said:
			
		

> How is the 2.75 showing a 40% profit while it is currentl 2.89 ????  you paid about $2.00????




With Options trading, you only have to put out a fraction of the full price of the stock.


----------



## legs

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> With Options trading, you only have to put out a fraction of the full price of the stock.



 Yes, but you only get the difference from the exercise price and the current price... so if its exercise at 2.75 and current price is 2.90 your profit is 0.15 per share... if you put out 0.15 per share to buy these, you dont make a cent.


----------



## Kruegs

Hi there,

In relation to the queries about Options-values, you need to factor in time-value as well as actual value. 
Hence,  if you buy a $2.75 option when the underlying share is $2.75, it is worth more than $0.00, depending on how much 'time value' is left until expiry and what the market thinks the price will do.  Time value will obviously be nil when the option reaches its expiry.
Hence, say the share value was $2.75 and you bought the $2.75 options at 20c each, then you have paid 20c in time value, on the principle that you are buying the opportunity of the price appreciating further before expiry.
If the price quickly goes to $3.00, then your options may be valued at 25c real value, plus perhaps 18c of the remaining time value (assuming this has depreciated over time, which it usually does).  End result would be the options are worth 43c each, a profit in this case of more than 100 percent.

In my case, I bought 

Consolidated View: (by Security, Date and Price) | View Averaged Portfolio | View Detailed Portfolio 



Option OXRSS (2.75 Option, expiring 30 Apr 07)
Paid : 0.195 on 5/2/07.  Underlying share value on this day was $2.69 (close)

Current trading value is now 0.310    That's an increase of 58.97% on my investment thus far.

I am not all that experienced in options, so if anyone has a better way to explain this, please feel free to contribute.

Regards,
Mark Krueger


----------



## Seneca60BC

what happen to the annoucement ?


----------



## legs

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> what happen to the annoucement ?




 Well if you had taken any notice of my post #610 i told you it was:

22nd February 2007, Release of 2006 Full year financial results. 
http://www.oxiana.com.au/UpcomingEvents.asp


----------



## Seneca60BC

LOL  - I did after I posted the question.


----------



## legs

AAA result hold on tight.. take off today i hope.


----------



## Seneca60BC

Thought it would go higher - not much today given the result


----------



## legs

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> Thought it would go higher - not much today given the result



Give it a chance...only been open 43 minutes!! Sit back and relax


----------



## angela200172

legs said:
			
		

> Give it a chance...only been open 43 minutes!! Sit back and relax




sp drop back to $2.85.  

Anyone else have any views?


----------



## Sean K

angela200172 said:
			
		

> sp drop back to $2.85.
> 
> Anyone else have any views?



Buy the rumour, sell the fact. Happens all through the reporting season. People locking in profits, unless something out of the box is produced. The market must have expected the result...


----------



## Sean K

Although I think Heggarty is a bit of a wanker, OXR's chart is looking a little interesting. If it makes it to the green circle, then perhaps it might be a potential, if not actual breakout from this long sidways consolidation post May route. Probably needs to crack $3.50 for that...A bit like LHGs chart actually. Momentum looks to be just turning up.


----------



## UraniumLover

After Oxiana Chief executive Own Hegarty made a total idiot of himself in delivery of the profit results it makes me wonder about Management of this company.
Appearing on the front page of the fin looking like a man who couldn't do up his tie properly and making sweeping statements like the commodity boom will last forever wasn't the best image for the company.


----------



## Sean K

UraniumLover said:
			
		

> After Oxiana Chief executive Own Hegarty made a total idiot of himself in delivery of the profit results it makes me wonder about Management of this company.
> Appearing on the front page of the fin looking like a man who couldn't do up his tie properly and making sweeping statements like the commodity boom will last forever wasn't the best image for the company.



 LOL. Surely the commodity boom will last FOREVER! Classic. He said something else about OXR being the best company in the universe too didn't he....I actually thought he was just an enthusiastic CEO before this. What was in the punch at the meeting? Magic mushrooms?


----------



## reece55

UraniumLover said:
			
		

> After Oxiana Chief executive Own Hegarty made a total idiot of himself in delivery of the profit results it makes me wonder about Management of this company.
> Appearing on the front page of the fin looking like a man who couldn't do up his tie properly and making sweeping statements like the commodity boom will last forever wasn't the best image for the company.




Guys
If you actually met/knew Hegarty, you would understand this is just his style........ I guess it can be little bit "in your face on the football field" style, but at least he is an honest kind of guy.

I have met him and deal with Oxiana on a very regular basis. Hegarty is a bull on commodities and makes statements like this because he honestly believes it. Hegarty is a terrific performer - his life is Oxiana. If you have ever tried to get in contact with him, you would understand he spends almost 24/7 either reviewing their existing resources or scouting the world for other opportunities. And his board and execs back him - they have unhedged production for this very reason. And for all those who have held since below 90 cents definitely wouldn't bark at the management of the Company (albeit they had a fair bit of luck on the commodity side).

On the T/A side, I would like to see a break above about 3.00, however I did trade the swing back to 2.90. Heavy volume on Friday, wonder if it is buyers or sellers - the annual financial's were just a little bit below expectations, but MBL appear to be backing them fairly heavily of late. Add the commod movement lately, I favour upward movement.

Cheers


----------



## Seneca60BC

I cannot understand why this SP is under $3.00   

Result of 40c earnings per share is quite an achievement.

Anyone like to comment?


----------



## BradK

It is out of favour for some reason. 

But, my 2c worth? 

Price of Copper absolutely tanked in first few weeks of January. It is slowly recovering but Oxiana is treated like a two bit ho by the shorters and the day traders. 

Personally, I think the worst is over - and that it will begin to charge through soon. When it gets back into the $3.30's I think it will run from there. 

The danger is an overall market correction will halt its recovery. But, that is some EPS they achieved and it wont be long before we break out of the long term trending line and head north again. 

I think confidence is the big issue here. 

All the best


----------



## misterS

Kennas think you are right (although tech ignorant myself) Kitco site shows all base metals up in last trade - copper up for 3 straight weeks and 7% in a week.  Lots of articles on both the "China back in town" and funds moving back into comodities in  big way in 2007 - very positive stuff for Oxr and Zfx


----------



## rederob

First week of Chinese new year is behind us, and the funds have decided China will return in a week's time in "buying" mode.
Funds don't always get it right tho.
That said, the Ox mines gold/silver, copper, zinc and lead.
Gold and silver are returning to close in on highs of 2006, copper has clicked up 20% in a 3 weeks, zinc has jumped (on copper' back), while lead is writing new record highs as the days wear on.
The likes of Summit and Bannerman may well have uranium in the ground, and look good from an enterprise value perspective, but when will they be mining uranium?
At a similar price, OXR is delivering cash in spades.
If the speculative uranium bubble bursts, there could be some nasty headaches out there judging from the posts I read.
Can't see too much downside for OXR - none next week!


----------



## nizar

rederob said:
			
		

> First week of Chinese new year is behind us, and the funds have decided China will return in a week's time in "buying" mode.
> Funds don't always get it right tho.
> That said, the Ox mines gold/silver, copper, zinc and lead.
> Gold and silver are returning to close in on highs of 2006, copper has clicked up 20% in a 3 weeks, zinc has jumped (on copper' back), while lead is writing new record highs as the days wear on.
> The likes of Summit and Bannerman may well have uranium in the ground, and look good from an enterprise value perspective, but when will they be mining uranium?
> At a similar price, OXR is delivering cash in spades.
> If the speculative uranium bubble bursts, there could be some nasty headaches out there judging from the posts I read.
> Can't see too much downside for OXR - none next week!




Rederob.
Im suprised you still hold this one, i folded it ages ago.

Regardless of how much money the company is making, as investors/traders we dont make anything unless the share price goes up.

The chart looks disgusting. Try to look at OXR a bit more objectively.


----------



## rederob

nizar said:
			
		

> Rederob.
> Im suprised you still hold this one, i folded it ages ago.
> 
> Regardless of how much money the company is making, as investors/traders we dont make anything unless the share price goes up.
> 
> The chart looks disgusting. Try to look at OXR a bit more objectively.



The Ox is mining reserves with a 15 year lifespan.
That's going to ride through a few corrections, so I'd rather not try to "trade" this one.
As I said previously (I think), the tax man will do well if I sell OXR: I'm not in supporting the dark side.


----------



## Out Too Soon

oxiana's a great rollercoaster, the only "disgusting" thing about this co. is the dividends, like BHP I dont know why they bother! Maybe a div once every 2 years would be more sensible.


----------



## Seneca60BC

quite a good run today, may have to get it all up 2morrow


----------



## Knobby22

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> oxiana's a great rollercoaster, the only "disgusting" thing about this co. is the dividends, like BHP I dont know why they bother! Maybe a div once every 2 years would be more sensible.




I use dividend reinvestment. It is the only company I do it for, but I think it is good value at the present price.  Too many traders were in this stock but it is settling down nicely now and I expect it will be rerated sometime this year.


----------



## Seneca60BC

Well the Fin Review makes special mention today that OXR has a high CFD traded stock.


----------



## Out Too Soon

Hey Kennas!
               Do you still have your radar on this one? it must be interesting chart wise, is resistance level currently around $3.17 ? Then $3.30ish & $2.98 the other way?    Is it bumpily trending down or now breaking out?  
I know why I love this stock, cause it moves so much! Never a dull moment.


----------



## Sean K

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Hey Kennas!
> Do you still have your radar on this one? it must be interesting chart wise, is resistance level currently around $3.17 ? Then $3.30ish & $2.98 the other way?    Is it bumpily trending down or now breaking out?
> I know why I love this stock, cause it moves so much! Never a dull moment.



Seems to be making a break through 3 important levels at the moment. Short and long term resistance at $3.00, and 200d ma. MACD confirming upward momentum and just passing through signal line is a bullish sign. Most gold related stocks are doing well however. Copper recovering has helped of course. And the AGC buy must be considered a good play.


----------



## laurie

We need another T/O rumour........lets see  : 

cheers laurie


----------



## Seneca60BC

LOL


----------



## Out Too Soon

Thanks for that Kennas but after todays *action* I suppose the charts dont make much sense thanks to the Chinese.


----------



## Seneca60BC

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Thanks for that Kennas but after todays *action* I suppose the charts dont make much sense thanks to the Chinese.




LOL - oh dear - charting - so funny.


----------



## bvbfan

Added to position today at 2.82av, copper rebounding...Let see if metals can cope with GDP revisions and Helicopter Ben


----------



## Sean K

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> LOL - oh dear - charting - so funny.





			
				Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Thanks for that Kennas but after todays *action* I suppose the charts dont make much sense thanks to the Chinese.



I always try and put the disclaimer 'probabilities' in any charting I have done. Unfortunately, a 'rumour' on a trading floor in Beijing is not included within the scope of probablities.


----------



## Seneca60BC

kennas said:
			
		

> I always try and put the disclaimer 'probabilities' in any charting I have done. Unfortunately, a 'rumour' on a trading floor in Beijing is not included within the scope of probablities.




yea good point.


----------



## Seneca60BC

angela200172 said:
			
		

> yes, hold tight OXR, I have top up 30000 more at $2.80, up up ...........thank you .




LOL looks like down down at the moment!


----------



## Out Too Soon

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> LOL looks like down down at the moment!




That's not funny. Don't worry Angela, a lot of us are holding from higher than that, the world wont come to an end, just mid term traders become long term investors. (That's me ATM)


----------



## angela200172

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> That's not funny. Don't worry Angela, a lot of us are holding from higher than that, the world wont come to an end, just mid term traders become long term investors. (That's me ATM)




Out Too Soon, thank you. I still hold my OXR shares. I am happy


----------



## LPA

This is my only really long term play - I'm going for 3 to 5 years on this one...unless of course there are outstanding circumstances.


----------



## Out Too Soon

kennas said:
			
		

> I always try and put the disclaimer 'probabilities' in any charting I have done. Unfortunately, a 'rumour' on a trading floor in Beijing is not included within the scope of probablities.




Hey Kennas, the day your charting can take such variables into account you can tell us the meaning of life the universe & everything (43?) then disapear into a puff of logic.


----------



## angela200172

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Hey Kennas, the day your charting can take such variables into account you can tell us the meaning of life the universe & everything (43?) then disapear into a puff of logic.




I don't know what happened to OXR the last 3 days - copper, gold and all metals price up and up, but OXR sp down and down, would you please tell me why? thank you.

Angela


----------



## Seneca60BC

angela200172 said:
			
		

> I don't know what happened to OXR the last 3 days - copper, gold and all metals price up and up, but OXR sp down and down, would you please tell me why? thank you.
> 
> Angela




Hi Angela

Its a very thought-provoking question, my hunch is that due to the correction we had few days back, some are selling to minimise losses or crystalise profits.

cheers


----------



## YELNATS

angela200172 said:
			
		

> I don't know what happened to OXR the last 3 days - copper, gold and all metals price up and up, but OXR sp down and down, would you please tell me why? thank you.
> 
> Angela




Hi Angela, maybe OXR is not flavour of the month as it was in 2005, then the year's best performing share. But not to worry, long term it's terrific value. regards YN (I hold OXR).


----------



## bvbfan

posted this elsewhere, just my thoughts...
Share price action this week is very disappointing but with the all scrip offer the arbitrage opportunities at the moment are too good to pass up if you are looking to hold OXR long term.
At the moment the arbitrage is about 11c (6c + 5c dividend) or a bit over 4% in 3 weeks which isn't a shabby return in this market. (6 weeks to hold to collect the dividend too)

I'd like to see it drop further so I can add further to my longs for both trading and long term


----------



## Dukey

Do you know off the top of yourhead when the ex-div date is??
Have been watching OXR for a while now.
waiting...


----------



## chops_a_must

bvbfan said:
			
		

> At the moment the arbitrage is about 11c (6c + 5c dividend) or a bit over 4% in 3 weeks which isn't a shabby return in this market. (6 weeks to hold to collect the dividend too)



As Pauline Hanson would say... "Please explain?" Arbitrage between what exactly?

There seems to be a gradual bear campaign on all of the all rounders. E.g. RIO, BHP, FXR just to name a few. Definitely out of favour. OXR is still the pick of the bunch in this category for me though, even though I don't hold.


----------



## Mac

Dukey said:
			
		

> Do you know off the top of yourhead when the ex-div date is??



According to the info on the asx website it's showing as 11 April Dukey - http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...lts.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=oxr


----------



## bvbfan

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> "Please explain?" Arbitrage between what exactly?




This is entirely on the premise that Oxiana (OXR) will get control of Agincourt (AGC) and using closing prices Friday

The arbitrage is in selling OXR shares at 2.69c and buying AGC at 1.69.
To do this you would sell 1000 OXR and simultanously buy (1000 / 0.65) 1539 AGC shares.

So you received 2690 - 2601 (excluding brokerage)
If the take over goes through, you end up with 1000 OXR shares which brings your net holding to 0.

To get the dividend you need to have OXR shares so you'd need to buy more AGC to get OXR shares. And technically isn't an arbitrage here because you are at risk on the surplus AGC to claim the dividend.


----------



## BradK

Look, im not saying that the chart doesnt look shocking - it does! We all have eyes
But, price of copper is recovering, great P/E, takeover target, and actually earning $$ and good $$ too. 
When the AGC takeover is complete (currently 43% done I think), then I think we might see a bit of a recovery of the sp. 

Brad


----------



## Knobby22

BradK said:
			
		

> Look, im not saying that the chart doesnt look shocking - it does! We all have eyes
> But, price of copper is recovering, great P/E, takeover target, and actually earning $$ and good $$ too.
> When the AGC takeover is complete (currently 43% done I think), then I think we might see a bit of a recovery of the sp.
> 
> Brad




Hey, your looking at the fundamentals!


----------



## BradK

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> Hey, your looking at the fundamentals!




I must be the only one LOL


----------



## Halba

Not many ppl convinced as to this co....

Reasons: obvious dilution from AGC deal, copper price strength who knows how long it'll last?


----------



## Mofra

Another factor to take into consideration is the upcoming dividend - traditionally stocks see some support CD, especially on a mining stock that normally pays a paltry dividend.


----------



## Out Too Soon

It's still a paltry dividend. What really amazes me about OXR is the *HUGE*  volumes that are traded every day often for little sp movement. A favourite of the CFD traders I beleive.
  I hold Oxiana & beleive it's a great investment, I'd love to see them start paying Zinifex type divs tho.


----------



## Seneca60BC

BradK said:


> Look, im not saying that the chart doesnt look shocking - it does! We all have eyes
> But, price of copper is recovering, great P/E, takeover target, and actually earning $$ and good $$ too.
> When the AGC takeover is complete (currently 43% done I think), then I think we might see a bit of a recovery of the sp.
> 
> Brad





Hey Brad

I think your right, SP picked up quite well today.


----------



## legs

Oxiana is another name for the region around the great river Oxus, which is in today's Central Asia. Real Australian...lol..pmsl


----------



## mmmmining

Believe it or not, OXR could be ahead of PNN in producing uranium. Check this out: I quote: (from http://www.uic.com.au/pmine.htm#prominent)
------------------------------------

Prominent Hill, SA

As of August 2004 an inferred resource of 97 million tonnes at 1.5% copper, 0.5 g/t gold and 103 ppm uranium in the upper chalcocite. In deeper chalcopyrite, uranium runs to 120 ppm. This gives less than 10,000 tonnes U, with unknown mineralogy and hence uncertain recovery.


----------



## exgeo

Yeah, a paltry 10Kt of Uranium. Never worth the bother of finding out how to extract it from rock that you'll be processing anyway to get the Cu/Au. The Uranium is worth only 2.2Bn USD at current prices. I'll do you a favour mate, and swap it for my secondhand falcon.


----------



## mmmmining

exgeo said:


> Yeah, a paltry 10Kt of Uranium. Never worth the bother of finding out how to extract it from rock that you'll be processing anyway to get the Cu/Au. The Uranium is worth only 2.2Bn USD at current prices. I'll do you a favour mate, and swap it for my secondhand falcon.




Only if your Falcon is made of 100t gold!


----------



## legs

Nicely up a little today....whats it going to take to see a big move in this...???


----------



## Kimosabi

legs said:


> Nicely up a little today....whats it going to take to see a big move in this...???




It'll happen the day after you get frustrated enough and sell out..


----------



## Rafa

yeah, spot on...
thats the only reason why i haven't sold yet...
been holding since $1ish...

with the recent take over activity,
plus the possibility of Uranium now in OXR's portfolio of assets...
i am holding this one for quite a while yet..


----------



## YELNATS

legs said:


> Nicely up a little today....whats it going to take to see a big move in this...???




Reminds me of Joe's June '04 post on OXR "What will it take for it to break through $1?"


----------



## exgeo

OXR has two interests in Uranium after that wrapup of the Agincourt (AGC) takeover. 57% of Nova Energy (NEL) and also the Prominent Hill deposit. Let's hope they jump on the Uranium bandwagon!


----------



## Sean K

exgeo said:


> OXR has two interests in Uranium after that wrapup of the Agincourt (AGC) takeover. 57% of Nova Energy (NEL) and also the Prominent Hill deposit. Let's hope they jump on the Uranium bandwagon!



I like that they're diversifying a bit more and reducing their commodity risk to copper and gold. Perhaps they'll pick up a nickel and zinc player too soon. Maybe iron ore and oil? Hegarty might just turn this into a mini BHP or RIO if he has his way. Just needs the market to stay steady short term so he keeps his cash flow to be able to complete any deals.


----------



## j4mesa

Hi Sean,

actually, roughly oxiana produce 50 % copper, 40 % zinc and 10 % gold....
I read that somewhere but just could not recall from where it is..
correct me if I am wrong....


----------



## Sean K

j4mesa said:


> Hi Sean,
> 
> actually, roughly oxiana produce 50 % copper, 40 % zinc and 10 % gold....
> I read that somewhere but just could not recall from where it is..
> correct me if I am wrong....



I can't find the % 's but I've only ever heard of it as a copper/gold company. Laos is copper/gold, Prominant Hill is copper/gold, QLD is primarily gold exp, work with Minotaur is IOCG and maybe U, but Golden Grove looks primarily zinc by the looks, with Cu, Au, and Ag.


----------



## Sean K

This helps from one of their presentations:


----------



## j4mesa

there we go....the oxr revenue graph

oh sean,btw thanks for your reply regarding the announcement.


----------



## wavepicker

Kimosabi said:


> It'll happen the day after you get frustrated enough and sell out..




This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities




It of course assumes that this bull run has a natural cyclical ending,  and not just a pause/correction, as we had last year.
The cards I read suggest the latter, and that the present bull is not even half way into its term.


----------



## reece55

wavepicker said:


> This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities




Wavepicker

Your EW skills are second to none I have seen mate.... I just thank you for sharing snippets of your brain every now and then........

Certainly with copper looking like it will go to a corrective wave 4 shortly and then leap to a wave 5 (this is certainly Nick's view), your take on OXR is exactly what I see personally - perhaps with not so much insight or skill however!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## wavepicker

rederob said:


> It of course assumes that this bull run has a natural cyclical ending,  and not just a pause/correction, as we had last year.
> The cards I read suggest the latter, and that the present bull is not even half way into its term.




Rederob, every bull has an ending and every bear has an ending. If it was not this way the market would not exist the way we know it. Everyone who get's involved int he market knows this. The present is just a repeat of the past, the same patterns and cycles repeat over and over again


.....The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun....


----------



## wavepicker

reece55 said:


> Wavepicker
> 
> Your EW skills are second to none I have seen mate.... I just thank you for sharing snippets of your brain every now and then........
> 
> Certainly with copper looking like it will go to a corrective wave 4 shortly and then leap to a wave 5 (this is certainly Nick's view), your take on OXR is exactly what I see personally - perhaps with not so much insight or skill however!
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




Thanks reece, just try to trade it like I see it. Move by move. Judging by the many posts for OXR, this 4th wave was a surprising dissapointent.

My own cycles/EW work called for a top in Gold last year in April/May. This coincided with the 8.5 Year cycle topping and subsequently I expeted a 1-2 year bear/sideways market. That move resulted in 26% mini crash from $730 to $541. Managed to trade that swing and 2 subsequent swings following that as the market followed the pattern of trend I was expecting for the most part. Was actaully expecting a completion at about $490, didn't happen. Since then has deviated somewhat from what was expected, but overall Gold did was expected in that correction in so far as trading that correction goes. The market will do what it wants to,  and one has to develop methodologies  to stay in sync with it.


----------



## legs

Up 3.88%, $0.12 today so far, market must have enjoyed the recent Golden Grove announcements and AGM.


----------



## Sean K

legs said:


> Up 3.88%, $0.12 today so far, market must have enjoyed the recent Golden Grove announcements and AGM.



I also read rumours of a takeover in the Australian this morning, and Fat P put a buy on it at $3.10 ish I think. Higher volume too. Interesting.


----------



## YoungGun

It surprises me that there hasnt been more talk on these forums about Oxiana. Not even considering its excellent share price movement of late, but the heavy volumes it pulls each day.

The general direction management declared they wish to pursue at the latest AGM was encouraging and there are rampant reports of a corporate takeover.


----------



## Dutchy3

Yeah nice close today and enough confirmation for me too.

I'll be loading up next week ....


----------



## legs

Up 13% over last 5 trading days...gotta be happy with that. Seriously, unless in gets to 3.90 in the next 12 months, it wont have performed as good as the majority of resource stocks. It was 3.40 this time 6 mths ago, a 15% return over 12 mths is surely expected from a mid cap. Copper is approaching record highs again,
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
Also new mines coming along nicely.


----------



## Ken

I transferred all my OXR into AGC @ $1.69 as it was trading at a discount before the merger.

Very happy with it all now still holding. No reason to sell really.


----------



## YoungGun

Quite a few profit takers early on today, but the sellers took control from about midday onwards for Oxiana to finish strongly, only a cent lower than yesterdays close. Considering the overall weaker performance of the market today, I was particularly happy with this result. Although I suspect it will change by market open tomorrow, the market depth for sells looks to be drying up..  

Quite unexpected, but the semi-merger with Legend mining also a nice addition to the portfolio.


----------



## legs

Dutchy3 said:


> Yeah nice close today and enough confirmation for me too.
> 
> I'll be loading up next week ....




I hope you got on mate..great pick up!!Been holding them since 80c days and intend to hang onto them. With RIO under takeover spotlight, it makes OXIANA a step higher in the food chain...great for takeover chatter.


----------



## legs

Nice bollinger squeeze starting and if you look at the last two squeezes the stock broke out upwards with good moves. Will be looking for a similar movement in the next week or two.


----------



## speves

Explains the recent jump....interesting times ahead..the Australian reports:


_SHARES in miner Oxiana jumped nearly 5 per cent yesterday as surging copper prices and broker upgrades stoked takeover talk, with Canadian zinc giant Teck Cominco whispered as the latest possible suitor.

The key hook for the Canadians is rumoured to be Oxiana's $775 million Prominent Hill copper and gold mine development in South Australia's isolated Gawler Craton, which could fit well with any development of Teck's encouraging Carrapeteena copper and gold discovery in the same area.

The Canadian caused a stir among the Gawler juniors in April when it reported encouraging drill results, with one hole grading 2.1 per cent copper over a 905m intersection.

Oxiana yesterday rose 16c, or 4.8 per cent, to $3.50, valuing it at $5.3 billion.

Chief executive Owen Hegarty is seeking to expand Oxiana beyond the clutches of predators, using its Sepon gold and copper mine in Laos as the base. It has since bought the Golden Grove zinc and copper mine in Western Australia, committed itself to Prominent Hill and earlier this year bought Agincourt Resources for $415 million, delivering Oxiana the Martabe gold mine development in Indonesia.

Teck, the world's largest zinc miner, is well positioned to launch a bid.

Oxiana is frequently touted as a takeover target, with Swiss-based Xstrata often tipped as a possible bidder.

Oxiana shares were further boosted by Goldman Sachs JB Were upgrading its copper price forecasts. The broker had been forecasting prices next year to fall to an average $US2.81/lb from an expected $US3.30/lb this year, but it now expects prices in 2008 to rise to an average $3.48/lb before rising further to $3.55/lb in 2009.
_


----------



## Sean K

1012 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely headed up to A$3.80/A$3.90 area if it breaks resistance near A$3.53, says Tolhurst technical analyst Violeta Todorova. Notes OXR has consolidated within A$2.50-A$3.50 area for over 12 months. "A break of the resistance level would be a bullish sign and there is quite a good chance this could occur in the current move up." OXR up 5 cents early at A$3.52. (DWR) 

:iagree:


----------



## nizar

kennas said:


> 1012 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely headed up to A$3.80/A$3.90 area if it breaks resistance near A$3.53, says Tolhurst technical analyst Violeta Todorova. Notes OXR has consolidated within A$2.50-A$3.50 area for over 12 months. "A break of the resistance level would be a bullish sign and there is quite a good chance this could occur in the current move up." OXR up 5 cents early at A$3.52. (DWR)
> 
> :iagree:




Kennas.
Check out MUR its a better break (or at least equivalent) in my opinion.
Textbook asceding triangle break, just like the Mighty Ox.


----------



## Caliente

yup, read that article a few days ago. with the amount of time OXR has been in that trading range, there's going to be a lot of pent up energy if it indeed does break out. Exciting times...

IMHO - Owen Hegarty is possibly the most intelligent/forward thinking MD in the mining game, so its not unwise to keep some of your funds attached to the OX.

disclosure: LT holder locked on for almost 3 years now.


----------



## theasxgorilla

I was running some stats on open short interest in Oxiana over the weekend.  Seems that on Thursday last week the number of borrowed short sold shares in OXR fell by 28% in a single day.  Considering that since the beginning of March the daily fluctuation in short interest has averaged about 3.5% this is *big*.

Anyone out there know why?

Has the short selling that kept OXR range bound for the last 12 months finally capitulated?


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> 1012 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely headed up to A$3.80/A$3.90 area if it breaks resistance near A$3.53, says Tolhurst technical analyst Violeta Todorova. Notes OXR has consolidated within A$2.50-A$3.50 area for over 12 months. "A break of the resistance level would be a bullish sign and there is quite a good chance this could occur in the current move up." OXR up 5 cents early at A$3.52. (DWR)
> 
> :iagree:



Might be breaking up. Need EOD confirmation perhaps. This is trending up quite strongly after finding a bottom at $2.60 in March. Up $1.00 since then - about 30%. Not sure what would hold it back except general market fall back, or Copper/Zinc price collapse perhaps.

(not holding)


----------



## BradK

Just went long with a Guaranteed Stop Loss. 

Looking great chart wise at the moment and hopefully will close at EOD at highs  

What do you reckon Kennas? 

Brad


----------



## Sean K

BradK said:


> Just went long with a Guaranteed Stop Loss.
> 
> Looking great chart wise at the moment and hopefully will close at EOD at highs
> 
> What do you reckon Kennas?
> 
> Brad



Looks like it could be breaking, but I'm personally waiting to see how it goes this arvo. Might not be profit taking, but who knows. It's tried to break $3.50 four times in the past year and failed, so we'll see. Sentiment seems to be very strong in commods at the moment so there's a strong chance this could be it, IMO. All the best. At $3.61 as I speak, so looking good.


----------



## R0n1n

Lets hope it goes blue skies...

I only came on board at 3.40... 

Like kennas said its the volume we need to watch carefully...


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Looks like it could be breaking, but I'm personally waiting to see how it goes this arvo. Might not be profit taking, but who knows. It's tried to break $3.50 four times in the past year and failed, so we'll see. Sentiment seems to be very strong in commods at the moment so there's a strong chance this could be it, IMO. All the best. At $3.61 as I speak, so looking good.



Got through, and could be called a breakout now IMO. Will be interesting to see if it runs from this point. I suppose the next target would be $3.75/all time high which isn't far away. So maybe a little consolidation around there. Could even test $3.50 I suppose to confirm the break.....Got my bases covered there.  

Risks are a general market fallover of course. Just where is the top? China's going nuts again which is a concern.


----------



## theasxgorilla

kennas said:


> Got through, and could be called a breakout now IMO. Will be interesting to see if it runs from this point. I suppose the next target would be $3.75/all time high which isn't far away. So maybe a little consolidation around there. Could even test $3.50 I suppose to confirm the break.....Got my bases covered there.
> 
> Risks are a general market fallover of course. Just where is the top? China's going nuts again which is a concern.




IMO, both of those scenerios are possible ie. retrace to test $3.50/.55 or furthering of the breakout into a new all-time-high.  This weeks close will be of great interest...a close up around the highs will be positive, above $3.76 (just over 3% away from todays close, so not at all out of reach) would be super-positive.  As you say, its possibly going to depend on how strong the market is overall, although if OXR can buck the trend of the greater market then we have another positive sign.  We also have rising daily volume out of the June 8th lows.


----------



## nizar

theasxgorilla said:


> IMO, both of those scenerios are possible ie. retrace to test $3.50/.55 or furthering of the breakout into a new all-time-high.  This weeks close will be of great interest...a close up around the highs will be positive, above $3.76 (just over 3% away from todays close, so not at all out of reach) would be super-positive.  As you say, its possibly going to depend on how strong the market is overall, although if OXR can buck the trend of the greater market then we have another positive sign.  We also have rising daily volume out of the June 8th lows.




This is outstanding.
Been watching for a while.

$3.50 was very signficiant resistance tested 3 times over the last 12 moths.

ZFX also nice, a blue sky break, but OXR much better, the resistance was more historical and more significant.

Alot of money going into the big guys, OXR, ZFX, BHP, RIO. Reminds me of last year. January last year.

If i was to buy this one 2mrw, which is very likely, stop would be a touch under $3.50. Maybe $3.40-$3.45. I dont want this to close below $3.50.

Like ASX.G says, it could go either way. Either up up and away. Or a pullback (on low volumes would be textbook) to $3.50-3.55 before we are away again.


----------



## reece55

theasxgorilla said:


> IMO, both of those scenerios are possible ie. retrace to test $3.50/.55 or furthering of the breakout into a new all-time-high.  This weeks close will be of great interest...a close up around the highs will be positive, above $3.76 (just over 3% away from todays close, so not at all out of reach) would be super-positive.  As you say, its possibly going to depend on how strong the market is overall, although if OXR can buck the trend of the greater market then we have another positive sign.  We also have rising daily volume out of the June 8th lows.





I'm with you ASX.G here, the mighty Ox is roaring and a low risk entry has presented itself. The break today was significant IMO as we have cleared resistance that has been in place for a very long time. Even if we do retrace, I think that the least path of resistance is upward from here. Personally, being a swing trader with a little lower risk appetite, I think that a stop of just below 3.50 would suffice, but I really like the way it's looking. 

All the best to all on this ride......


----------



## MBI

nizar said:


> This is outstanding.
> Been watching for a while.
> 
> $3.50 was very signficiant resistance tested 3 times over the last 12 moths.
> 
> ZFX also nice, a blue sky break, but OXR much better, the resistance was more historical and more significant.
> 
> Alot of money going into the big guys, OXR, ZFX, BHP, RIO. Reminds me of last year. January last year.
> 
> If i was to buy this one 2mrw, which is very likely, stop would be a touch under $3.50. Maybe $3.40-$3.45. I dont want this to close below $3.50.
> 
> Like ASX.G says, it could go either way. Either up up and away. Or a pullback (on low volumes would be textbook) to $3.50-3.55 before we are away again.





I am vested on this counter, and as you have indicated it had given me false starts and excitement time and time again over the past 1 yr, I am holding my breadth this time round.  I must say this time round it is ramp up is stronger and it will need to test $3.76/3.80 to convince me of a breakout.  

Let's hope this laggard will charge forward this time and give us another ride.

cheers


----------



## legs

From someone who has held this stock since it was about 0.90, it is great news. The last year has been so frustrating seeing it bounce form 2.50 up to 3.5 then back down again at least three times, finally we now have a breakout IMO. Lets see it press for $4.00 and put the last 12 mths behind us...( i shouldn't be greedy, i'm up 280% in 2 yrs!!)


----------



## MBI

There again, today seems to confirm its momentum is fizzling baseing on candlesticks.  Market is not taking well the offloading of Wilun mine, or should I say, it was expecting something more significant than that to happen.  Getting a little impatient and would probably liquidate position soon. Any opinion where the sp will be heading next week?


----------



## Sean K

MBI said:


> Any opinion where the sp will be heading next week?



 Maybe $20, or $2.00, or $3.50.  Have to ask Yogi that question I reckon.

This has still broken up and out of the sideways range IMO. Everything consolidates. I wouldn't mind it touching $3.50 ish and bouncing off to confirm the break actually. There was always probably going to be resistance around the all time high and linked to some consolidation on the XAO and you have a slight pull back. Not fretting over it yet. I'll re-evaluate on a clear break down through $3.50. It's a possibility, but hey, it's the stockmarket!


----------



## swhmale

kennas said:


> Maybe $20, or $2.00, or $3.50.  Have to ask Yogi that question I reckon.
> 
> if it goes to $2.00 i'll take a hundred thousand and hang on till it headbutts $3.50 again. seriously, like most, i've hung on for dear life since getting in at $2.88 last year, watching it go up, then down, then up, etc, etc, sold yesterday @ $3.67, if it drops to $3.50 might jump on  again, very masochistic.


----------



## Dutchy3

Suggested this one and took positions in early May ... moving away nice now with a moderate degree of leverage ... all the press seems favourable. Anyone want to venture a price/time target?


----------



## 56gsa

Wondering if any OXR followers have any thoughts on what OXR will do with NEL...  will it go the way of Wiluna Gold and be sold off to fund the Indon gold project - if so who do you think could be likely buyers - TOE perhaps?

or do you think OXR will want to keep it?

NEL has lifted past few days after ann on Wiluna sale...


----------



## MBI

56gsa said:


> Wondering if any OXR followers have any thoughts on what OXR will do with NEL...  will it go the way of Wiluna Gold and be sold off to fund the Indon gold project - if so who do you think could be likely buyers - TOE perhaps?
> 
> or do you think OXR will want to keep it?
> 
> NEL has lifted past few days after ann on Wiluna sale...





My take is that NEL isn't at the top of Hegarty's  list of non-core assets for disposal following the Agincourt acquisition.  Given the mid-term bullish uranium prices, he can afford to hold on to NEL till the project is ready for BFS or offered a price that one cannot refuse.  

On the other hand Wiluna has a -ve cashflow gold deposit, so disposing its smelting plant along with whatever residual gold deposit seem to me a good and creative way of extracting value (also pertinent to take note that OXR still retains mining rights to uranium and other minerals in the tenement).

Yeah having said that, I also noticed the bollinger bands are squeezing for NEL over the past week and the MACDs crossed over on 18 Jun.  So perhaps may be something is already brewing.

Cheers


----------



## legs

Oxiana just purchased 6 million AQD shares. 
Apparently the managers from both companies used to work together.

Oxiana has stated in the past that it is looking to grow and actually has made acquisitions.


----------



## laurie

legs said:


> Oxiana just purchased 6 million AQD shares.
> Apparently the managers from both companies used to work together.
> 
> Oxiana has stated in the past that it is looking to grow and actually has made acquisitions.




Its because they may think its a protection against a takeover themselves  

cheers laurie


----------



## Damuzzdu

OXR has broken out today to form a new all time high. Previous high was $3.82 formed back on 12th May 2006. It then suffered during that May/June correction. 

This might bring in new buyers now that mostly everyone holding are now not sitting on losses.

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## greenfs

I hope & trust you are correct, but as I profit holder of this stock I suspect that the current price may be recognised as nearly full value and that the share price will probably stagnate or may even retract a little.

I t will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days


----------



## Rafa

most analysts have put price targets of between 4.50 and 5.00 on OXR...
breaking out of its all time high is a critical move, would look to see if that all time high now acts as support.


----------



## crayfish

_From *MiningNews.net*:_

_Comments from Oxiana's managing director Owen Hegarty published in today's Australian Financial Review of synergies in a marriage with Zinifex boosted both stocks to new all-time highs. 

Oxiana reached $3.93 before cooling to $3.89 – a gain of 15c or 4% – while Zinifex recorded $20.18 before falling to $20, a climb of 86c or 4.5%. 

A spokeswoman from Oxiana told Dow Jones she could not confirm or deny any merger talks however the company continued to assess acquisition opportunities in Australia and Zinifex may be among the potential targets. 

"We're looking at things all the time and Zinifex happens to be one of those. We've got a very strong organic growth pipeline, but certainly mergers and acquisitions are part of our strategy as well," she said._


----------



## Sprinter79

There were two trades that went through at 4.38pm, both at 3.86. One was for 714,000 and the other was for 2, 403, 630.

What's the deal with that?


----------



## waz

Does anyone have the article published in todays AFR?

I struggle to see any specific synergies between the two.
Can anyone think of any? (besides the usual management/head office costs).

I dont know the exact locations of their activities, but even geographically there is not much to gain.


----------



## Ken

Hows about the tip we all got off the CEO....

There are very few more valuable things than an OXIANNA share.  Now that was 50% ago...

And the AGC play...... to buy them by the bucket load at $1.60

I sold out at $3.10  

Only if we all knew... 

I guess its a saying that let profits run, and cut your losses...

Whos to know...  there would be people out there.... who just tuck these OXR shares away.

They are verging on the big time.. I am out of them, but lets think of the people who sold PDN at 20 cents for 100% profit... ouch!!!  

Not to know..


----------



## Damuzzdu

waz said:


> Does anyone have the article published in todays AFR?
> 
> I struggle to see any specific synergies between the two.
> Can anyone think of any? (besides the usual management/head office costs).
> 
> I dont know the exact locations of their activities, but even geographically there is not much to gain.




Here's a brief summary of the article.

1. OH believes there would syngeries between the companies.
2. ZFX less complicated once Smelters are sold-off.
3. OH says combination between 2 would have many pluses
4. OH says ZFX have good assets, and so do we (OXR)
5. OH wants to build OXR into $10B company in 3 -5 year window
6. Couple of analysts says Oxiana would be interested in acquiring ZFX, but that ZFX might not be so willing. ZFX might be more interested in looking for strong growth assets (ie like Wolfden)
6. Goes on to say that while OXR was a great story until a year ago, share price has only risen 15% and has underperformed ASX200 benchmark.
7. With no new production coming online in next 12 months, this might put OXR under pressure to buy a current producer within the 12 months
8. OXR might look at at CSM 27% stake in Jabiru if it came up for sale.

That's it.

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## Joe Blow

Rafa said:


> most analysts have put price targets of between 4.50 and 5.00 on OXR...




Rafa, which analysts are you referring to? Your statement as it stands is a little vague. Can you clarify it a little for us?

Thanks!


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> This has still broken up and out of the sideways range IMO. Everything consolidates. I wouldn't mind it touching $3.50 ish and bouncing off to confirm the break actually. There was always probably going to be resistance around the all time high and linked to some consolidation on the XAO and you have a slight pull back. Not fretting over it yet. I'll re-evaluate on a clear break down through $3.50. It's a possibility, but hey, it's the stockmarket!



I was concerned when it broke back down through 3.50 but held to make sure it was confirmed. The follwing days dragon fly off 3.40 led me to believe significant support was still there. Lucky in retrospect. I probably should have sold with market toppy. 

Joe and Rafa, As far as broker calls go, here is the latest summary I have with 12 month targets:

Deutsche Bank....  02-Jul-07 .. Downgrade to Hold from Buy . $3.50    
UBS  ...................21-Jun-07 . Neutral 2 .......................... $3.45    
Credit Suisse ....... 21-Jun-07 . Underperform .................... $3.50  
ABN Amro .......... 21-Jun-07 .. Hold ................................. $2.99    
Macquarie .......... 21-Jun-07 . Outperform ........................ $4.00   
Merrill Lynch.......  21-Jun-07  ..Neutral, High Risk ................. - -  
Aspect Huntley ... 25-May-07 . Reduce .............................. -  -  
JP Morgan .......... 20-Apr-07  ..Underweight ..................... $2.40   
Citi .................... 20-Apr-07  .Downgrade to Hold from Buy, High Risk....  $3.29  

Source: FN Arena (don't tell them it's here)

Looks overdone perhaps? Or, maybe they are all saying sell so they can accumulate it? LOL  Or, perhaps a 30% takeover premium can be factored in. Or, have the 'analysts' stuffed up their forecasts for zn, au, cu and it should be worth more. Need to establish what those targets are set with I think. However, 4.50 - 5.00 is a bit above these......


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

kennas said:


> Joe and Rafa, As far as broker calls go, here is the latest summary I have with 12 month targets:
> 
> Deutsche Bank.... 02-Jul-07 .. Downgrade to Hold from Buy . $3.50
> UBS ...................21-Jun-07 . Neutral 2 .......................... $3.45
> Credit Suisse ....... 21-Jun-07 . Underperform .................... $3.50
> ABN Amro .......... 21-Jun-07 .. Hold ................................. $2.99
> Macquarie .......... 21-Jun-07 . Outperform ........................ $4.00
> Merrill Lynch....... 21-Jun-07 ..Neutral, High Risk ................. - -
> Aspect Huntley ... 25-May-07 . Reduce .............................. - -
> JP Morgan .......... 20-Apr-07 ..Underweight ..................... $2.40
> Citi .................... 20-Apr-07 .Downgrade to Hold from Buy, High Risk.... $3.29
> 
> Source: FN Arena (don't tell them it's here)
> 
> Looks overdone perhaps? Or, maybe they are all saying sell so they can accumulate it? LOL  Or, perhaps a 30% takeover premium can be factored in. Or, have the 'analysts' stuffed up their forecasts for zn, au, cu and it should be worth more. Need to establish what those targets are set with I think. However, 4.50 - 5.00 is a bit above these......





Analysts usually upgrade there forecasts once the SP has risen formed a new support and run a bit more.........LOL


----------



## rederob

kennas
Your post clearly shows that mainstream market analysts do not have a clue when it comes to resources.
There are now about 5 years of similar forecasts.
Readers that stray into industry-based forecasts for this industry will get a different outcome.
The only base metal that is not in tighter demand than a year ago is aluminium.  You will notice that the Ox has no aluminium exposure.

While I understand that Joe is concerned that readers are not led astray by stock rampers that can't substantiate their claims, it is equally as dangerous to suppress an optimistic view simply because "respectable" forecasters have an alternative reality.
In simple market terms there is nothing preventing OXR doubling in price next year.  It has done it many times in the past 5 years (traded at 34cents exactly 5 years ago).
Let's face it, OXR is unhedged, has minimal debt (funding Prominent Hill largely from cash flow), has low geopolitical risk, and has world class projects given its mid-tier status.

I do recall nizar asking why I hadn't sold my OXR shareholding earlier this year, given its chart at the time. It's because I hold the view that we are in a commodity supercycle that is still in its infancy.  Plus, my average entry price is only $1.39 so I can afford a bit of downward retrace from time to time without getting too worried.  I also expect that within 5-6 years the dividend stream from OXR will repay my capital outlay.


----------



## Rafa

hi joe, 
like all things, no one can predict the future, and apologies if this post that follows or any other previous posts sounded like ramps... I did assume we all on this thread knew our stuff, but i should have known better.

Firstly, OXR is a mid tier producer. Its not explorer, or one of those stock with a JORC and hoping to mine... It actually pays dividends!!!

Secondly, It has just approached / broken its all time high, tho it looks like today its coming back a bit...

Thirdly, this was was in the Dow Jones news wire over three weeks ago...



> 1528 [Dow Jones] Australian resource sector on cusp of aggressive re-rating says Southern Cross Equities. "Finally, we are starting to see broader recognition of the 'clear and present value' that lies right across the Australian resource sector. We are seeing heavy consensus upgrades to earnings and valuations, heavy global M&A, private equity, and we are on the cusp of a bumper earnings and capital management season. Yet, the lowest P/E sector remains resources." Targets over next 3-6 months include BHP (BHP.AU) A$37.00, RIO (RIO.AU) A$105, Fortescue (FMG.AU) A$50.00, Woodside (WPL.AU) A$50, Santos (STO.AU) A$15.00, Oxiana (OXR.AU) A$4.00, Minara (MRE.AU) A$11.00, Alumina (AWC.AU) A$9.00, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) A$20.00, Kagara (KZL.AU) 8.00, Wesfarmers (WES.AU) A$42.00. (DWR)




There was also this posted by kennas in the bhp thread a few weeks back



> 1110 [Dow Jones] Strength in iron ore juniors shows iron ore majors cheap, says Southern Cross Equities director Angus Aitken. Notes massive rise in iron ore juniors relative to BHP (BHP.AU) and Rio (RIO.AU) in recent weeks. "They still look cheap given they are the only guys with any real scale and leverage to current prices and within 9 months we can throw Fortescue Metals (FMG.AU) into that mix." Says RIO may be a little ahead of itself on takeover speculation, but BHP headed to A$40 near term. Expects BHP rise to trigger panic buying from locals and further spike to A$50.00. BHP last A$34.47, down 0.6%. RIO down 0.6% at A$99.43. (DWR)




Finally, as redrob said... 



> OXR is unhedged, has minimal debt (funding Prominent Hill largely from cash flow), has low geopolitical risk, and has world class projects given its mid-tier status.
> ...
> We are in a commodity supercycle that is still in its infancy




it has also done nothing in the last year (like BHP) and given everyone the chance to either top up, or get out! so far, i have noticed the the price of BHP and OXR seems to follow a similar pattern. My graphing software is limited, but i would be interested to see if someone can do a comparison of the two in the last 2-3 years. 

if BHP is heading to $40 or $50, the OXR will head towards $4 to $5 dollars.

And I haven't even mentioned the M&A word above... 

PS: i am a holder since the $1 days...


----------



## Sean K

Rafa said:


> hi joe,
> like all things, no one can predict the future......



Hello from Peru Rafa! 8.45pm here, darn it. I'm going to miss Essendon whip Geelong tomorrow.

Thank you for your response (and rederob), I'm sure Joe appreciates it. It's interesting to see how people respond to simple questions like, 'where did you get that info from?' Or, 'how did you get to that conclusion.' The 'rampers' tear you to bits while the people who provide value here tend to actually provide a decent response. Cheers!  

Hopefully the lurkers out there know that this is not HC. 

Go the mighty Ox. $10 by Christmas!!!!   LOL


----------



## Rafa

yeah, ramping is a big issue, so i understand where joe is coming from 

I did notice on another thread that you've said you've headed off the Peru... thats amazing. What a move...

hope everything goes well there for you... Atleast with the internet know, mobility is so easy.

GO THE MIGHTY OX!!!


----------



## theasxgorilla

kennas said:


> Go the mighty Ox. $10 by Christmas!!!!   LOL




I hope so, I'm fully committed to this one now...however, just one thing...where did you get the information from?  (joking!).


----------



## Sean K

theasxgorilla said:


> ... just one thing...where did you get the information from?  (joking!).



It's a research report from Maxwell Capital. It's a private investment company of some dude named Sean. I'm a subscriber, but I can't pass on the details due to copywrite laws. He has a 6 month target of $10, and a 1 year target of $21.45. All supported by some of the most awesome research I have seen. Ever. This guy is a legend. Even better than YT! He also reckons MAK is going to $2.00 by Christmas. Get on it!   he he.


----------



## reece55

kennas said:


> It's a research report from Maxwell Capital. It's a private investment company of some dude named Sean. I'm a subscriber, but I can't pass on the details due to copywrite laws. He has a 6 month target of $10, and a 1 year target of $21.45. All supported by some of the most awesome research I have seen. Ever. This guy is a legend. Even better than YT! He also reckons MAK is going to $2.00 by Christmas. Get on it!   he he.




Jeez Kennas, you will have to PM me the link.......

I would pay 200 a month for such a service.......... LOL.....

Seriously, the Ox, as with most commodity stocks, is having a terrific run. See where it takes us, but now that Hegarty has been unleashed in the US, watch the Yanks buy in, ADR on market now as well........ Not sure as to the validity of M&A opportunities, but clearly a stock to have...... Clear skies from here T/A wise....

Cheers


----------



## legs

AAP News 


Merger rumours lifts Oxiana, Zinifex

Monday July 9, 2007, 4:52 pm



Shares in Oxiana Ltd and Zinifex Ltd soared amid speculation that the pair could be planning a merger as part of a defensive move to fend off predators, such as Xstrata and Teck Cominco.
The market has been awash with talk that copper-gold miner Oxiana and zinc play Zinifex could be eyeing a friendly merger. 
Man Financial broker Anthony Anderson said it was unlikely Oxiana would make a bid for Zinifex, but a friendly merger could ward off likely predators.
"I don't really think Oxiana could make a bid for it (Zinifex)," Mr Anderson said.
"I think a friendly merger might be just a defensive move, then it stops them both from getting taken over.
"Zinifex is just a straight zinc play and Oxiana is into copper and gold, having a blend (of assets) always help's, and that's what makes the big companies."
Zinifex shares surged to a record high of $21.60 on Monday before pulling back to close $1.10 or 5.44 per cent higher at $21.32, while Oxiana added 11 cents or 2.94 per cent to $3.85.Citigroup said a merger would create a group with a combined enterprise value of about $11 billion and fill the void left in the market by MIM Holdings and WMC Resources.Xstrata swallowed MIM in 2003, while BHP Billiton acquired WMC Resources in 2005."From a comparative perspective, a combined entity would have a similar profile to WMC Resources prior to the BHP takeover, and with the addition of a bulk commodity business would have a similar profile to Teck Cominco," Citigroup said.
"With Zinifex still to appoint a new CEO, this could be the opportunity for Oxiana to show their wares.
"A beauty parade potentially awaits."
Citigroup said a merged entity would have a cash position of $4.4 billion by the end of fiscal year 2008, with minimal debt, following the spin-out of Zinifex's smelter business.


----------



## bigdog

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22046292-643,00.html

Zinifex surges on merger rumours
Andrew Trounson 
July 10, 2007 

SHARES in zinc major Zinifex hit a new record high yesterday amid continued speculation about a possible merger with fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana.

Zinifex is also being buoyed by the prospect of an injection of $3-5 billion in cash once it spins off its smelting assets in October. 

Last weeks comments by Oxiana chief executive Owen Hegarty - that he sees synergies in a possible tie-up with Zinifex - have reignited longstanding speculation that the two companies could eventually merge. 

However, market watchers point out that it would be a strange tactic for Oxiana to flag a play for Zinifex. 

It is believed that the two companies have discussed a merger in the past, but both yesterday said they had nothing to report. 

Amid expectations of further consolidation in the global mining industry, investors are proving quick to buy on any takeover or merger rumour. 

Zinifex shares jumped $1.10, or 5.4 per cent, to $21.32, sending the company through the $10 billion mark. The shares traded as high as $21.60. 

Oxiana gained 11c, or nearly 3 per cent, to $3.85. Brokerage Citigroup helped to stoke the speculation yesterday with a research report estimating that a merger would create a group with a combined enterprise value of about $11 billion, filling the void left by MIM and WMC. 

"From a comparative perspective, a combined entity would have a similar profile to WMC Resources prior to the BHP takeover, and with the addition of a bulk commodity business would have a similar profile to Teck Cominco," Citigroup said. 

"With Zinifex still to appoint a new CEO, this could be the opportunity for Oxiana to show their wares." 

Zinifex boss Greig Gailey retired at the end of June and the board is now assessing external candidates. Zinifex would have liked to name a successor in time for the July 26 shareholder vote to approve the spin-off of the smelter assets of Nyrstar, but that is now looking unlikely. 

Citigroup said a merged entity would have a cash position of $4.4 billion by the end of fiscal year 2008, with minimal debt, following the spin-off.


----------



## legs

What are peoples theories on what will happen with this merger/takeover talks??? I am extremely happy that all Owen Hegarty's chatter about it is driving our stock up, along with broker calls, but will it come to anything big???


----------



## greenfs

I was tempted to sell today, but my advisor has indicated that company management believes that the current share price should be $4.50 and that with a little time that this will be achieved. As such, I will wait a little longer and sell above $4.30 if that is achieved.


----------



## legs

greenfs said:


> I was tempted to sell today, but my advisor has indicated that company management believes that the current share price should be $4.50 and that with a little time that this will be achieved. As such, I will wait a little longer and sell above $4.30 if that is achieved.




I suppose it depends what price you got in at and what profits you are happy with. I got in about 0.90 so I am happy to ride the profits a bit longer and risk a small drop. If it went below 3.75 again I will be out as I am sick and tired of it yo-yoing like it has the last 2 years.


----------



## MBI

legs said:


> I suppose it depends what price you got in at and what profits you are happy with. I got in about 0.90 so I am happy to ride the profits a bit longer and risk a small drop. If it went below 3.75 again I will be out as I am sick and tired of it yo-yoing like it has the last 2 years.




I am with you Legs, it has been a frustrating 'hold your breath' thing for me over the past 2 yrs too.   It is just too hard to understand the dynamics for this counter.  All the fundamentals are positive - gold, copper, nickel prices are up during this period, it has good mgt and +ve cashflow to either acquire for growth or be acquired which is good for sp.  And it is not a laggard considering its high daily volume, but it just simply content with the yo-yo acts until last month.  Can only suspect this has something to do with those smart traders profiting from arbitrage with its US-listed ADRs given our A$ strength and US$ volatility over this period.  Although I am glad to see it broke the resistance of 3.80 but will hold my breath again and waste no time to get out if it does a sub $4 again. 

Cheers.


----------



## theasxgorilla

Within the context of share price activity since perhaps March last year you could certainly say the market for OXR has been sideways.

However since March this year the share price has appreciated over 50%.  Thats some pretty serious momentum.  Average weekly volume has also increased during this time by over 35% percent.  New all-time-high and now blue sky...looks good from where I'm sitting, hang on for the ride.


----------



## bigdog

Todays HeraldSun
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22091528-664,00.html

CMC Markets foreign exchange dealer Josh Whiting said continuing market speculation that copper and gold miner Oxiana Ltd and zinc producer Zinifex could merge or be taken over had sparked interest in the Australian dollar.


----------



## bigdog

ASX ann today
OXR  	8:33 AM  	Oxiana Limited Quarterly Activities Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00739794

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/54904/-Oxiana-on-track-to-meet-forecasts

*Oxiana on track to meet forecasts*
18-July-07 by AAP
Oxiana on track to meet forecasts - 18 Jul, 07:24am

Precious and base metals producer, Oxiana Ltd, says it's on track to meet its annual production and cost forecasts.

In the company's quarterly report for the three months ending June 30, released this morning, Oxiana also said its Prominent Hill project in South Australia remained on schedule for production in 2008.

There had also been exploration success at Sepon in south central Laos, Golden Grove in Western Australia and Prominent Hill, Oxiana said.

Copper production at Sepon was higher for the quarter at 16,271 tonnes, the company said, while resource evaluation had also started at the Pha Bing prospect following discovery of high grade copper mineralisation.

"Exploration around known resources and at greenfields prospects continues to deliver significant new copper mineralisation," the report said.

Production and mining of gold in the area had also included included 43.8 metres at 8.7g/t Au and 23 metres at 15.9g/t Au.

The company said it had been "mainly a zinc production quarter at Golden Grove" with 36,675 tonnes of zinc produced.

The company was upbeat about exploration prospects.

"High grade zinc and copper mineralisation continues to be discovered beneath the Xantho and Scuddles deposits, with results including 65.3m at 7.4 per cent Cu and 29.4m at 19.5 per cent Zn."

Development of the Prominent Hill copper-gold project also remained on schedule.

"Mineralisation has shown continuity over more than one kilometre, with recent results including 86 metres at 1.7 per cent Cu, 23 metres at 2.5 per cent Cu, 23 metre at 1.9 per cent Cu and 47 metres at 3.2g/t Au."

Oxiana's half year financial results will be announced on August 23.


----------



## kamil

Can you guys share your thoughts on current SP movement? I have been watching OXR for a little while waiting for a good entry opportunity. If Dow rebounces this or next week that could be it. Do you know of any other reasons possibly influencing current SP movement?  The SP has been moving sideways for last couple of weeks, but other than that OXR has been an outstanding performer for a while now.


----------



## legs

a  3% plus drop in overnight copper price played a big part in todays downturn. Most miners dropped 3-4%, ZFX 4.14%, RIO 3.42%, etc. just a bad day alltogether...MIGHT be a good entry now. 
I believe a lot of options expired today as well??


----------



## kamil

cheers legs, that does explain things, I guess I'll wait and see were Dow and commodity prices are going...


----------



## countryboy

looks like an even better entry poiny today.The ox hits the 3,80 mark and bounces back. I thought the 4.00 mark had broken this.maybe one of the chartists could explain what is happening.


----------



## Sean K

countryboy said:


> looks like an even better entry poiny today.The ox hits the 3,80 mark and bounces back. I thought the 4.00 mark had broken this.maybe one of the chartists could explain what is happening.



Support lines are being smashed all over the place, hard to make any calls when panic sets in, IMO. Should be support at $3.50, but it really depends on what the general market is doing now, and the lemmings are running over the cliff. Hard to be comfortable with any long positions at the moment, unless you're a 'long term' investor and don't need the equity for a while. So, depends a lot on your position and style. Having said that, this might be a blip like 28 Feb, but listening to commentators on the DOW fall it seems more likely to be a larger correction, which could knock this through $3.50. I'm officially on the fence as usual.


----------



## GreatPig

Back at my recent up trendline now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it holding there. Above average volume and closed on low, some RSI divergence, and price now dropped into the middle of the GMMA long-term group as they start to turn down.

But then I get everything dead wrong, so look for the killer bounce on Monday!

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Mofra

GreatPig said:


> Back at my recent up trendline now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it holding there. Above average volume and closed on low, some RSI divergence, and price now dropped into the middle of the GMMA long-term group as they start to turn down.



On the plus side GP OXR (technically) has a reputation for filling gaps relatively quickly so those looking to buy on pullback weakness may well be rewarded in a fairly short space of time. 

In the context of the wider market we are certianly in for an interesting week - confidence must be shaken already and there would certainly be a number of players sitting on the sidelines waiting until after the next RBA meeting.


----------



## 56gsa

apologies for x-posting... OXR now has 46% of TOE so thats a nice foot in the U camp with NELs advanced projects in WA and early days in namibia - based on TOEs last close this equates to $4.40 for each NEL share - not bad in the current market although still relatively cheap i suspect ...  nice timing for TOE.. TOE would have to fall to 67c for this to equate to current NEL price



> TORO AND NOVA AGREE TO MERGER PROPOSAL
> The Boards of Toro Energy Limited (ASX: TOE) and Nova Energy Limited (ASX: NEL), owned as to 57% and 25% respectively by Oxiana Limited (ASX: OXR), have today announced a recommended merger by way of a scrip takeover offer by Toro for Nova (the “Offer”).
> The Offer terms are 5.5 Toro shares for each Nova share and, if successful, the merger will result in Oxiana holding about 46% of the merged company on an undiluted basis. Based on the closing trading prices of Toro ($0.80) and Nova ($3.70) on 2 August 2007, the Offer implies a market value for the merged company approaching A$400 million.
> When commenting on the merger from an Oxiana perspective, Mr Owen Hegarty (Managing Director and CEO) said:
> “Oxiana is supportive of the transaction – it will strengthen our investment in the uranium industry by bringing together two complementary management teams and an excellent portfolio of advanced projects and exploration tenure to create one of the largest Australian listed uranium explorers and developers. Oxiana believes the Australian uranium industry has a strong future and the merger of Toro and Nova has the potential to make an important contribution to the Oxiana Group in the years to come.”
> The merged company will have three advanced projects in Australia (Lake Way – Centipede, Napperby and Warrior) and extensive exploration positions in Australia (SA, NT and WA) and Africa (Namibia, Morocco and Guinea).
> Oxiana intends to accept the Offer for its holding following the expiry or termination of the escrow restrictions on its Nova shareholding (which will occur no later than 23 August 2007), in the absence of a higher offer and subject to its acceptance increasing Toro’s relevant interest in Nova shares above 80%.
> Oxiana’s financial adviser in respect of this transaction is Gryphon Partners and legal advice is being provided by Clayton Utz.
> For further information on the proposed merger, refer to the Toro and Nova announcements released earlier today which will also be available on Oxiana’s website.


----------



## bigdog

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/oxiana-merges-uranium-arms/2007/08/06/1186252629499.html

*Oxiana merges uranium arms*

Jamie Freed
August 7, 2007

RAPIDLY growing mid-tier miner Oxiana has simplified the structure of its uranium interests through a $400 million merging of its uranium affiliates, Toro Energy and Nova Energy, amid talk of more consolidation in the booming mining industry.

Oxiana will emerge with a 46 per cent stake in the combined company, which will have uranium development projects in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory along with overseas exploration projects. Toro is offering 5.5 of its shares for each Nova share, equivalent to a 19 per cent premium to Nova's closing price before a trading halt on Friday morning.

Oxiana isn't the only mid-tier miner targeting uranium. After a presentation at the Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie yesterday, Peter Kukielski, the chief operating officer of diversified Canadian miner Teck Cominco, said his company was interested in diversifying into uranium, nickel and iron ore.

"We look at opportunities as they come up," he said; "just not the right one has come up yet."

Although Teck has made a $C4 billion ($4.43 billion) bid for South American copper miner Aur Resources, it remains cashed up and hunting for other acquisitions following its failed $US17.4 billion ($20.3 billion) tilt at Canadian nickel miner Inco last year.

Citigroup recently said a merger between Australian mid-tier miners Oxiana and Zinifex would make sense and would fill a void in the mining space following BHP Billiton's purchase of WMC Resources and Xstrata's acquisition of MIM.

"We're always on the lookout for merger and acquisition activity," the managing director of Oxiana, Owen Hegarty, said yesterday, "from the smaller, bolt-on activity through to the company transformer."

Zinifex's chief operating officer, Brett Fletcher, said his company was also looking for attractive assets even though it only recently completed the $400 million purchase of the Canadian explorer Wolfden Resources. Analysts expect Zinifex will receive about $2.5 billion following the spin-off of its smelting business later this year.

"The objective is to have high-margin, long-life mines," Mr Fletcher said.

Both Zinifex and Oxiana have been deemed potential targets for Teck, given their size, assets and commodity mix. Zinifex owns the world-class Century zinc mine, but the operation does not have a particularly long life remaining. Oxiana has attractive copper, gold and base metals assets but they are probably too small to attract attention from the world's largest miners, such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and even Xstrata. Teck is one of the few diversified miners not averse to producing gold. Oxiana produces gold in Laos and is developing a gold project in Indonesia.


----------



## Nicks

Lately I have been seeing nothing but excellent media and analyst coverage about Oxiana. The results are very good as well. Add into the mix a merger, aquisition prospects or even takeover and excellent gold prices, this stock is a beauty.


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## greenfs

I am a holder of this stock. I met an Engineer who is now working in Oxianna's SA mine as a contractor. He says the rank and file and middle management are simply resigned to a BHP takeover any day soon.

That can't be good for morale. He also said that he has gained the impression that some of the cap-ex was being completed at minimum cost to improve short-term profititability to maximise the takeover value.

Has anyone else heard anything in recent times to match this gosip. If so, I reckon I might double my 'investment'.


----------



## reece55

greenfs said:


> I am a holder of this stock. I met an Engineer who is now working in Oxianna's SA mine as a contractor. He says the rank and file and middle management are simply resigned to a BHP takeover any day soon.
> 
> That can't be good for morale. He also said that he has gained the impression that some of the cap-ex was being completed at minimum cost to improve short-term profititability to maximise the takeover value.
> 
> Has anyone else heard anything in recent times to match this gosip. If so, I reckon I might double my 'investment'.




It would have to be a ripper of a price for Hegarty to let go of his prize.....

A lot of OXR's mines are ones that BHP always could have had in the past. They declined to participate because they were too marginal some 3-5 years ago. I mean, the Ox bought Prominent Hill at a steal from MEP back in 2004, now 3 years later they are laughing to the bank. With the sharp increase in commodity prices, it's now a different boat all together. But I think it would be a cold day in hell that the OXR board would simply let BHP walk in and take the lot. There is plenty of tension between the 2, but anything less than $5.00 and you would have to think it just wouldn't be recommended by the board.

Cheers
Reece


----------



## golfmos123

reece55 said:


> With the sharp increase in commodity prices, it's now a different boat all together. But I think it would be a cold day in hell that the OXR board would simply let BHP walk in and take the lot. There is plenty of tension between the 2, but anything less than $5.00 and you would have to think it just wouldn't be recommended by the board.




I hold this one too having bought in at mid 2's.  Still think it is a good story and worth persevering further with.  Given the recent rises in SP, I can't believe that they'd walk away even at $5.  I think the takeover price would need to start with a 6 to make the board think about walking away - they're probably going to get to the 5's without a takeover rumour in the next 12 months-ish anyway.


----------



## wavepicker

golfmos123 said:


> they're probably going to get to the 5's without a takeover rumour in the next 12 months-ish anyway.





They have more chance of seeing $2.50 before $5 in the next 12 months. Have you seen the how the broader market has been behaving the last few weeks??. The move to $4 was the last leg up IMO. The consolidating pattern before the last leg up was the clue. Fundementals don't count for much ATM.
Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope to happen.

That is not financial advice merely an observation based seeing this type of market pattern many times before. 

Just my opinion and 2c worth


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities



Just wondering if this count is now invalid...


wavepicker said:


> They have more chance of seeing $2.50 before $5 in the next 12 months. Have you seen the how the broader market has been behaving the last few weeks??. The move to $4 was the last leg up IMO. The consolidating pattern before the last leg up was the clue. Fundementals don't count for much ATM.
> Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope to happen.
> 
> That is not financial advice merely an observation based seeing this type of market pattern many times before.
> 
> Just my opinion and 2c worth



Did you expect this to happen? Given you were waaaayyyyy off the mark. Could it just be that this is a part of an early wave in the broader wave 5 pattern? And by my reckoning, if that is so that it couldn't lead it to go below 2.60.

So I'll bet you 50c it gets to 4.50 before it closes lower than 2.60 :


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> Just wondering if this count is now invalid...
> 
> Did you expect this to happen? Given you were waaaayyyyy off the mark. Could it just be that this is a part of an early wave in the broader wave 5 pattern? And by my reckoning, if that is so that it couldn't lead it to go below 2.60.
> 
> So I'll bet you 50c it gets to 4.50 before it closes lower than 2.60 :





True it failed to reach the expected  target.  We are dealing with probabilities here. There are no certainties in the market. But realizing that this is not going to happen and having the ability to recognize that this market is now churning, helps a lot. Maybe you should practice this, it might actually help you one day.

If my memory serves me correct you acted in much the same way with Zinc and Zinifex earlier on in the year, cocky and arrogant initially only to be silenced after a few weeks.

I'll take up your offer for the bet, but make it $50 instead of 50c


----------



## reece55

wavepicker said:


> True it failed to reach the expected  target.  We are dealing with probabilities here. There are no certainties in the market. But realizing that this is not going to happen and having the ability to recognize that this market is now churning, helps a lot. Maybe you should practice this, it might actually help you one day.
> 
> If my memory serves me correct you acted in much the same way with Zinc and Zinifex earlier on in the year, cocky and arrogant initially only to be silenced after a few weeks.
> 
> I'll take up your offer for the bet, but make it $50 instead of 50c




Love it Wavepicker, love it......

"I'll see your 50 cents and raise you $49.50"

Over to you Chops.....

On OXR, I think there is absolutely buckleys chance of seeing OXR above 4.50 in this market......... period..... Not sure if $2.50 is where it will rest, but we have pretty hard conditions now....

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

wavepicker said:


> If my memory serves me correct you acted in much the same way with Zinc and Zinifex earlier on in the year, cocky and arrogant initially only to be silenced after a few weeks.
> 
> I'll take up your offer for the bet, but make it $50 instead of 50c



I've only held ZFX for a very small amount of the year, and they were one of the first I sold this calendar year. And I have been bearish most base metals for most of the year. I don't hold OXR, so have nothing to lose/ gain. Just asking about possible variable wave counts 'tis all.

And if OXR goes below 2.50/ 2.60 from here, I think I'll need that 50 bucks. 
I don't know where things are going with the precision you do, but I know a thing or two about position sizing, and not going to risk more I can afford to lose. Lol!


----------



## wavepicker

chops_a_must said:


> I've only held ZFX for a very small amount of the year, and they were one of the first I sold this calendar year. And I have been bearish most base metals for most of the year. I don't hold OXR, so have nothing to lose/ gain. Just asking about possible variable wave counts 'tis all.
> 
> And if OXR goes below 2.50/ 2.60 from here, I think I'll need that 50 bucks.
> I don't know where things are going with the precision you do, but I know a thing or two about position sizing, and not going to risk more I can afford to lose. Lol!





I don't know where anything is going with precision or certainty. I just look for high probability circumstances to trade from mainly pattern based.  If the price and time line up then great.

I actually thought he broader market might hold up into August, but knew it was high probability that a signifiant peak was due between May-August.

However a pattern formed in the DJIA, and the peak of this pattern line up perfectly with a time point that was due at the same time. There were bigger cycles that overlapped that time point and the overlap period was from may-august. That pattern that the DJIA had is the same one that OXR has formed, it is also the same one that Zinc and ZFX formed back in January although that was a lower degree pattern

That fact that all these cycles overlapped means that we are seeing strong moves down now. It is making the timing of the smaller cycle points (countertrends) very hard because its down so hard. Which means basically just sell the rallies. Most rallies are fast and furious in this sort of market, and the fact that they are fast and hard countertrends shows they are a high probability of being fully retraced. What is needed is nice basing pattern, with multiple retests of the lows.

Cheers


----------



## golfmos123

I think I'll side with the chops rather than the picker on this one.  I'll happily hold the money for you both while we see who ends up on the right side of the bet!

More pain on Monday by the look of Europe and the US so far tonight.  It's like a painful limbo - how low can we go????


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## Magdoran

chops_a_must said:


> Just wondering if this count is now invalid...
> 
> Did you expect this to happen? Given you were waaaayyyyy off the mark. Could it just be that this is a part of an early wave in the broader wave 5 pattern? And by my reckoning, if that is so that it couldn't lead it to go below 2.60.
> 
> So I'll bet you 50c it gets to 4.50 before it closes lower than 2.60 :



Are you serious Chops?  


Have a look at the weekly chart and look at what happened.  Remember this was called on APRIL 16 (2007).  So wavepicker was a few points off the bullish target for a bullish trade from April and targeted $4.40 as a level to aim for, and was close to the time where the top came in.

OXR hit a high of $4.05, slightly short of the mark, but gee it was a pretty good EW call just based on the pattern.  Sure, with a proper extension approach you may have picked within a few cents of the high more accurately, but this was a mid term call from 3 months earlier just based on pattern, without the more precise cycles work wavepicker has now incorporated.

Why not make your bet a little more interesting and precise.  Give the exact date OXR hits $4.50, I’d like to see that!


Regards


Magdoran


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## Magdoran

wavepicker said:


> I don't know where anything is going with precision or certainty.



That's not what you told me!  Hahahaha! (Just Kidding!)

Come on wave, you're being way too humble here!  

I should know, I've seen wavepicker in action behind the scenes, and I can say, what he does is inspired!


Mag

P.S. I’m not biased at all, of course!


----------



## chops_a_must

Magdoran said:


> Why not make your bet a little more interesting and precise.  Give the exact date OXR hits $4.50, I’d like to see that!



It will happen on the day after preceeding events inevitably make it so that the best of all possible worlds brings it into existence.


----------



## Nicks

Can anyone offer some fundamental thoughts as to why OXR is getting so hammered?

Would appreciate it so I can start some thinking of my own as to whats going on, because at the moment I have no idea why this good stock is taking a beating.

Thankyou


----------



## Sean K

Nicks said:


> Can anyone offer some fundamental thoughts as to why OXR is getting so hammered?
> 
> Would appreciate it so I can start some thinking of my own as to whats going on, because at the moment I have no idea why this good stock is taking a beating.
> 
> Thankyou



Nicks, it's a sea of red out there buddy. OXR isn't a BHP or a RIO. Yet. They might have half the international cred. So, BHP off 4%, OXR off 8%. Done! Anything slightly speculative is getting whipped. Heggarty probably doesn't help too much. He's the biggest ramper on the planet and everyone knows it. It's hard to tell where the fundamentals start sometimes with OXR, and it's why I have only ever short term traded it.

Having said that, on the surface, this looks to be getting in better and better shape with the assets they are accumulating, and if the credit squeeze doesn't cause recession/depression and the pause of Chindia development, then it'll go OK down the track. So, buying opportunity? :dunno:


----------



## wavepicker

Nicks said:


> Can anyone offer some fundamental thoughts as to why OXR is getting so hammered?
> 
> Would appreciate it so I can start some thinking of my own as to whats going on, because at the moment I have no idea why this good stock is taking a beating.
> 
> Thankyou





Simple Nicks...  It's called a bear market.  This is the psychololigical reality of mass mood as reflected by a decline in prices.  The economic reality follows this. The bears will be in control all the way to $2.50 at least IMO.

If you are in for the long haul, then you gotta ride it out, only trouble is, it might end up being a long time in between drinks!!


----------



## Nicks

Thanks Kennas. Ive held OXR for 11 months now and have always read good info on it. I bought in fairly hard when it was below $3. Thought it was finally starting to reflect true value when it hit $4.

I guess talks of the OXR and ZFX merger (that is still on the cards?) kept the SP up for a bit, but also im sure that recently OXR presented strong results.

Anyway i'll happily keep holding and yes I think it is an excellent buying opporunity at the moment. Of course I would have preferred to have sold and bought back in but we all could use that crystal ball. 

The reality is that it has taken a beating in the last week or so, but once the market settles this could be one to watch for a strong rebound.

Anyway its a long term keeper for me as eventually in this supercycle it will pay off well.


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> Simple Nicks...  It's called a bear market.



No Bear yet WP. Correction to date. Might end up turning into a bear, but who's to say right now? Even the funny*mental*ists can't agree. I think today is just emotional panick. I'm still thinking LONG term the bull is in tact, and therefore LONG term this is a good play. I haven't bought any for the _investment _portfolio yet though. :


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> No Bear yet WP. Correction to date. Might end up turning into a bear, but who's to say right now? Even the funny*mental*ists can't agree. I think today is just emotional panick. I'm still thinking LONG term the bull is in tact, and therefore LONG term this is a good play. I haven't bought any for the _investment _portfolio yet though. :





That depends what one classes as a bear market.  Amongst most professionals that number is a decline of 15% or greater on the index.  Sure we are not there yet. But the 15% is just a number, and those that have participated in numerous bear markets I am sure are wiser than this and can see the signs.  So then the question begs, how does one realize if we are still in a bull or if this is a bear campaign in progress?? The answer is simple, once most pundits realise the trend is down (The so called point of recognition or the middle point of a 3rd wave or C wave ),  they will realise, but for most that will be too late! I know what it feels like, I have been through the pain before.  The patterns say there will be lower prices to come, if not sooner then later.

It also depends on what you class as long term too. Is long term 2 years, 10 years, or 25 years??

It’s one thing to have a bear campaign lasting 1-2 years and still be long term bullish if you have the nerve to watch you stocks dwindle away in that timeframe, most don’t. It’s just human nature, people are people and always will be. Nothing has changed over the last 100 years, people are just as fearful, greedy and hopefull as their forefathers were, that’s why essentially the same patterns repeat in the markets


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> That depends what one classes as a bear market.  Amongst most professionals that number is a decline of 15% or greater on the index.  Sure we are not there yet.



I think we're just arguing semantics now which isn't healthy. As I said, it might turn into a bear, but it's not yet. We need to be talking about bears and bulls also, and not corrections and crashes which are different things. I think right now people are just thinking market correction, or crash. Does that necessarily mean bear? Not sure. Maybe we're thinking different things.


----------



## Ken

kennas  i think OXR  would have hit some margin calls today.

they have a 70% lending ratio.

so no doubt there was forced selling.

just my opinion.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> I think we're just arguing semantics now which isn't healthy. As I said, it might turn into a bear, but it's not yet. We need to be talking about bears and bulls also, and not corrections and crashes which are different things. I think right now people are just thinking market correction, or crash. Does that necessarily mean bear? Not sure. Maybe we're thinking different things.




So out of curiosity what signs you are looking for to convince you that this is a bear market kennas?

BTW in my eyes:-

Large Correction = bear

Crash = bear


----------



## Sean K

wavepicker said:


> So out of curiosity what signs you are looking for to convince you that this is a bear market kennas?
> 
> BTW in my eyes:-
> 
> Large Correction = bear
> 
> Crash = bear



Well, I have to defer to Wiki:



> *Bear market:*
> 
> Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period. However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.




So, 20% + over a year or so. If it drops 20% and recovers in a few weeks or months, then it's not a bear, but a crash and recovery. 

Perhaps there's a subtle difference in there somewhere. Something about who's driving the fall...to change it from 'correction/crash' to 'bear'. :dunno:


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:


> Well, I have to defer to Wiki:
> 
> 
> 
> So, 20% + over a year or so. If it drops 20% and recovers in a few weeks or months, then it's not a bear, but a crash and recovery.
> 
> Perhaps there's a subtle difference in there somewhere. Something about who's driving the fall...to change it from 'correction/crash' to 'bear'. :dunno:





Fair enough kennas, as far as I am concerned a decline in prices that is enough to lead an individual to first be  angry, hurt, then depressed is enough for me. In the end, no one likes to lose money and that's what it boils down to.

Incidentally though RN Elliott calssified sideways markets as bearish so I suppose it's one of those grey areas. Nevertheless the market is taking a hammering!!


----------



## uhu

Nicks, Kennas and others...

(I know my english is not correct, I am sorry)

What a suprise...a very bad suprise...When I went to bed at the evening, I thought OXR and ZFX would follow Dow Jones, so I waited a 2-3% dropping.
BUT! It's 10%!!!! And BHP, Rio "only" 3-4%....

Well, yes, these are good companies. Everyone say this. And everyone said these are bargain when OXR was at 3.50 AUD and ZFX was at 18 AUD....and I'm sure these analysts will say the same in these pricelevels. But, if credit situation won't change I'm afraid more dropping will be in the near furure. It's the same it's called as a bear market or big correction....because the result is loosing a lot of money.

Now I'm thinking. I believe in these stocks. But probably it would better to sell and later buyback them? Or this was the last big drop? Nobody can know this.

Well, I will be mor sure if I have more information about these stocks....but Google, The Australian, Mineweb doesn't give too much....have you got more information resources?


----------



## Mofra

Ken said:


> kennas  i think OXR  would have hit some margin calls today.
> 
> they have a 70% lending ratio.
> 
> so no doubt there was forced selling.
> 
> just my opinion.



Hi Ken, 

Much of the drive seems to have been during the SFE downtime, about 70minutes of fundies switching from short futures to short selling equities (they had little alternative). Once the SFE sytems were back up & running calm returned - OXR finishing black, XJO climing 220+ points.

Wouldnt think a wider market selloff is going to immediately impact the underlying fundametals in the short term - only change bullish sentiment.


----------



## uhu

Message to the philippinos: go back to your houses and don't disturb mining activities!!!!



I am sorry if sbody is from Phil. Islands


----------



## legs

can anybody shed any light on the mid day dramatic rise of oxr then the subsequent fall  (i presume profit takers moved in)?


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## bigdog

Legs,

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=A5A25C09-17A4-1130-F58FEEAEDC8FE317

*Zinifex Presentation Reignites Oxiana Speculation*
FN Arena News - August 27 2007

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Management of Zinifex (ZFX) has this morning reignited market speculation a corporate tie-in with copper and gold producer Oxiana Resources (OXR) is likely to be considered once the planned smelter spin-off plan has been completed. The company’s partner in the smelter plans, Belgium’s Umicore, informed investors last week the earliest possible date for the proposed IPO was late October.

It would appear Zinifex management has big plans post the smelter's spin-off with today’s management presentation to securities analysts indicating management sees a strong growth phase in three stages ahead. The first stage, indicated to last some four years, should see the company acquire additional assets at or near production.

Zinifex is specifically interested in acquiring assets that offer high margins and have extendible production lives. Core areas of interest are zinc, copper, silver, gold and lead, though management would also consider nickel and certain niche metals.

Other metals, including bulk commodities are not being considered.

The second growth stage, projected to kick in beyond the first four years and expected to last some six years, should see the company develop its Nunavut and Dugal River projects. Beyond the next ten years Zinifex’s future growth would be determined by developing brown field projects. (Meaning some infrastructure is already in place, as opposed to green field developments).

Earlier this morning the company reported a FY07 net profit of $1,334m, up 24% on the previous year. This well received by the market. Earnings forecasts by securities analysts had been in a wide range prior to the results release as varying expectations for metals prices, currencies and costs can lead to big differences in earnings forecasts.

The announced 70c in dividends takes total payout to shareholders for fiscal 2007 to $1.40 per share and this was much higher than what some analysts had expected.

This afternoon, Zinifex shares were trading 45c higher, up 2.7%, at $17.20. Shares of Oxiana were up 22c at $3.42. They hit $3.57 immediately after the presentation.


----------



## legs

Thanks BIGDOG i knew ZFX had their presentation on today but i forgot the link between the two. I never believed the speculation was over but since we've had all this turmoil it wasn't up there on my priorities to remember that.


----------



## greenfs

The price movement within the day is probably only in line with the day's general market move. One should never complain about a 5%+ gain on a single trading day, especially after recents weeks sp movements.

You will see that the included graph that the MACD divergence is looking looking promising with possible more rises in store in coming days


----------



## legs

greenfs said:


> View attachment 12628
> 
> 
> The price movement within the day is probably only in line with the day's general market move. One should never complain about a 5%+ gain on a single trading day, especially after recents weeks sp movements.
> 
> You will see that the included graph that the MACD divergence is looking looking promising with possible more rises in store in coming days




Look at my chart above...thats the chart for ONE day..not a week, a year, anything like that. I WAS NOT complaining about anything so where you got that idea from is a mystery...  They were up OVER 10% at one stage (finishing 5.94% up) and i was simply asking for an answer to the UNUSUAL  MID DAY MOVE. Show me another top 100 ASX stock moving like that without a good reason, this one was the ZFX meeting.
AS for MACD divergence, show a top 200ASX stock that doesnt have one after the correction!!!...lol


----------



## porkpie324

The rise in SP of OXR could have been due to China's increase in July copper imports.Also the Chinese can from next week buy Hong Kong listed shares and Jiangxi Copper is tipped as a strong buy. porkpie


----------



## adobee

Zinifex and the Oxiana bid that perhaps never was
Email Print Normal font Large font Barry FitzGerald
SMH August 28, 2007

IT COULD well be a case of the $6.5 billion-plus bid for Oxiana that never was after Zinifex, long speculated about as a suitor, disclosed to analysts that it had invested close to $200 million in an unnamed merger and acquisition opportunity.

The disclosure put a rocket under Oxiana's share price as analysts left its late-morning profit briefing in Sydney speculating that the unidentified acquisition opportunity could be Oxiana. Shares in Oxiana surged from $3.30 at midday to $3.57 an hour later, a gain of 8.2 per cent.

However, later in the day Zinifex told a media profit briefing that while it had invested in a potential merger and acquisition, situation, it was now liquidating the position, without saying whether it was in Oxiana. Oxiana shares then weakened to close the day at $3.39 - still an above-average gain for the day of 5.9 per cent.

Zinifex's acting chief executive officer, Tony Barnes, told the media briefing that it was "not unusual for companies to take positions in companies that arise as part of M and A activity".

"We did do that. I will tell you that we are currently in the processing of liquidating our holding. It was an opportunity we saw. Things change. You know, it's not unusual."

He would not comment on whether the position being liquidated was in Oxiana.

Zinifex reported a full-year profit of $1.33 billion, up from $1.07 billion the year before but with a noticeable slowdown in the second half profit when first tax payments and the higher US exchange rate began to bite.

"Breaking the $1 billion mark last year was a significant milestone for Zinifex," Mr Barnes said. "To post a net profit this year some 24 per cent higher again is simply an outstanding effort."

Zinifex's chief executive, Greig Gailey, retired at the end of June. Mr Barnes said he would not be seeking the post.

Mr Barnes said a new chief executive could be appointed by December. The board was comfortable with the executive management team in the interim and would take its time to "make sure they get the right person", he said.

A 70 cents a share (fully franked) dividend is to be paid on November 16. The record date for entitlements is November 5 and the ex dividend date is October 30. The payment takes the total for the year to $1.40, a rise of 75 per cent. Zinifex shares closed 45 cents higher at $17.20.

The group's bumper profit reflects big increases in the prices of its key metals - 74 per cent for zinc and the 58 per cent for lead. Partly offsetting the strong metal prices was a higher US exchange rate, particularly in the second half, and an 11 per cent increase in underlying operating costs (excluding exchange rate impacts). Another 10 per cent increase in costs was forecast.

As previously announced, Zinifex is getting ready to shunt off its smelting assets into the 60 per cent-owned Nyrstar next Monday. The plan is to sell its stake into the initial public offering of the European-based Nyrstar, planned for October at the earliest.

Zinifex has yet to say what it will reap from the sale, but the market is predicting an amount between $2 billion and $4 billion for reinvestment in the group's mining business.

Mr Barnes said nervous equity markets following the subprime credit crisis selldown were expected to be sufficiently recovered to get Nyrstar away.

The reporter owns Oxiana shares.


----------



## Dutchy3

Went LONG at various times today .... nice finish. Chart to follow. This one should now be able to move up again and take out the high in place at 4.00ish


----------



## legs

Dutchy3 said:


> Went LONG at various times today .... nice finish. Chart to follow. This one should now be able to move up again and take out the high in place at 4.00ish




On the back of what dutchy? Do you think the US has done enough to stop all the worries? If the subprime troubles continue... copper will fall back again, gold may hold OXR up, but if so, $4 is a dream, as much as i would like it to be true.


----------



## Dutchy3

Hi Legs

TA perspective + nice relative volume increase today ... Balance of Probability tells me that this should rise in price for bit now ... enough so I can take a few % over the next few weeks ... that's about it. Not very sofisticated .... or however its spelt.


----------



## dubiousinfo

The following is part of a story in The Australian today



> As for other hot tips Daily Assay picked up, there's a few other titbits which might prove useful.
> 
> Like Oxiana already in merger talks with a rival junior gold producer.
> 
> We can't quite give you any more information on that one, not until our source gives us the go-ahead anyway.
> 
> You know how these things work, Company A talks to Company B, C and D looking for the best deal.
> 
> But you must have been hiding under a rock for the better part of the last 12 months if you didn't think that an Oxiana tie-in somewhere wasn't on the cards.




Any takers on who the company might be?


----------



## greenfs

dubiousinfo said:


> The following is part of a story in The Australian today
> 
> 
> 
> Any takers on who the company might be?




A contractor who works for OXR in SA at a mine site has indicated to me over coffee a few weeks backl that all the workforce is totally resigned to a takeover by BHP. Having said that, it does not mean to say that it will actually happen


----------



## legs

I hold substantial OXR shares. It has been my most disappointing stock of the last two months. BHO, RIO, etc have bounced back nicely and gone well beyond yearly highs. What has OXR done?? Weak is all I can say. 
Ideas people?? Am I being hard on them? 
$4 seems a long way off still. 
Low P/E
Great potential...but lacks support.


----------



## the barry

legs said:


> I hold substantial OXR shares. It has been my most disappointing stock of the last two months. BHO, RIO, etc have bounced back nicely and gone well beyond yearly highs. What has OXR done?? Weak is all I can say.
> Ideas people?? Am I being hard on them?
> $4 seems a long way off still.
> Low P/E
> Great potential...but lacks support.




Turns out that $4 wasn't a long way off..lol

There have been some huge orders go through. 2 over 2 million and 1 over 1.5 million. 

Any one have any ideas on the 7% increase today?


----------



## legs

the barry said:


> Turns out that $4 wasn't a long way off..lol
> 
> There have been some huge orders go through. 2 over 2 million and 1 over 1.5 million.
> 
> Any one have any ideas on the 7% increase today?





Australian stocks rose 1.1 percent on Monday, as nickel miner Jubilee Mines NL (ASX: JBM.ax) surged 42 percent on Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata Plc's XTA.L takeover bid. Thats why...


----------



## BankRoller

furthermore to the JBM rise is the fact that ZFX's Nyrstar float took place and the capital raised is likely to be used at making another bid for a copper and gold producer. Hence the increase in PNA and OXR today.

It aint rocket science or brain surgery to figure that one out.


----------



## uhu

Great day!

Well, is this the time to realize profit or the time to buy more?

OXR's Q3 results are OK, so, maybe this is just an unwait light. But...yes, we are waiting for the next ZFX's speech...(Or, I don't care if not ZFX, but BHP or Teck or Freeport...)


----------



## greenfs

uhu said:


> Great day!
> 
> Well, is this the time to realize profit or the time to buy more?
> 
> OXR's Q3 results are OK, so, maybe this is just an unwait light. But...yes, we are waiting for the next ZFX's speech...(Or, I don't care if not ZFX, but BHP or Teck or Freeport...)




Now that BHP has not taken JBM, IMO it firms a little to take OXR before ZFX does, whereas I had previously guessed BHP might swallow ZFX later on


----------



## legs

BankRoller said:


> furthermore to the JBM rise is the fact that ZFX's Nyrstar float took place and the capital raised is likely to be used at making another bid for a copper and gold producer. Hence the increase in PNA and OXR today.
> 
> It aint rocket science or brain surgery to figure that one out.




Rocket science??? That float has been on the cards for ages...why wait until today? It has been calculated into the price for at least 3 weeks... This was purely the JBM takeover that affected this today, nothing more, nothing less (IMO)


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> Rocket science??? That float has been on the cards for ages...why wait until today? It has been calculated into the price for at least 3 weeks... This was purely the JBM takeover that affected this today, nothing more, nothing less (IMO)





Hmmm, agreed; but - ZFX certainly couldn't have hurt 
Up until today - we didn't really know how much of a success the Nystar float would be; what amount of money it would bring in. Now we do - the effect of something becoming 'real' is always there.


----------



## Annwn

Broken Res of 4.05

Interesting pattern development - 

Decending Triangle, generally considered to be bearish and usually found in downtrends
The upward break - the pattern has failed, but shows consolidation of the trend -  Decending Triangles with a break up usually do quite well.


----------



## Damuzzdu

BankRoller said:


> furthermore to the JBM rise is the fact that ZFX's Nyrstar float took place and the capital raised is likely to be used at making another bid for a copper and gold producer. Hence the increase in PNA and OXR today.
> 
> It aint rocket science or brain surgery to figure that one out.




ZFX will *NOT *be buying OXR. And OXR will not be able to take out ZFX either. Talks had been held, but as reported in the AFR some 3-4 weeks ago, the merger talks fell apart as OXR demand more from ZFX than ZFX was willing to give up.

That was the $200M that ZFX had spent building a position in OXR although ZFX would not confirm this outright.

This is not the first time that the OXR price has run like this....OXR might get a speeding ticket like they did 6 months ago. If they do and they will have to deny any talks are in place the price will get creamed...just like last time.

This is buy the rumour sell the facts.

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## Spaghetti

Seems many stocks went up yesterday in response to takover speculation except Compass Resources. There is one stock crying out for a new owner who has the management capability to get it firing along.

Hard to believe though that normal rumour trading would have pushed Oxiana over the $4.00 barrier, perhaps there is some buying being done.


----------



## Nyden

Spaghetti said:


> Seems many stocks went up yesterday in response to takover speculation except Compass Resources. There is one stock crying out for a new owner who has the management capability to get it firing along.
> 
> Hard to believe though that normal rumour trading would have pushed Oxiana over the $4.00 barrier, perhaps there is some buying being done.




Hmm, but OXR has been flirting with $4 for a while; and as you said - many stocks went up yesterday. Perhaps it's merely a case of everyone jumping back onboard for the run.


----------



## bigdog

ASX ANN this morning
30/10/2007	Oxianas Prominent Hill Copper Gold Project Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00776225

OXIANA'S PROMINENT HILL COPPER - GOLD PROJECT UPDATE

With less than 12 months to commissioning of the Prominent Hill copper-gold project a comprehensive review of costs and schedule has been undertaken. Scope changes, tight construction market conditions and cost increases in materials and equipment have resulted in a capital estimate increase of around 30%.  Plant commissioning and first copper concentrate production is still expected to occur in the third quarter of 2008.

Buoyant market conditions and higher copper, gold and silver prices have significantly improved project economics since Board approval some 12 months ago, and the expected contribution of Prominent Hill to Oxiana's earnings and cash flows has increased substantially. Exploration success below and lateral to the current open pit has seen Oxiana already initiate studies aimed at expanding production and extending life of mine to at least 2030.

A major milestone was reached on 21st October when the top of the orebody was exposed some two months ahead of schedule.

Prominent Hill is one of the world's best new copper - gold mines with excellent competitive fundamentals - low cost, long life, substantial upside and in the mining friendly jurisdiction of South Australia.

*Background*
Prominent Hill is located 130km northwest of BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam copper - gold - uranium mine, in the Gawler Craton in central South Australia (Figure 1). It is 100% owned by Oxiana and was approved for development by the Oxiana Board in August 2006 following permitting by Primary Industry and Resources South Australia.

Update is nine pages


----------



## greenfs

I think that my holdings in this stock will become increased holdings in BHP script within the next 6 months.


----------



## legs

ZFX merger with OXR is my tip.. I would hope a takeover offer, if it did happen, would be in the order of $6. What do you think would be a fair offer?


----------



## Caliente

i'm a bit split over it really.

M&A activity would be sweet, but Owen has plans to grow OXR at a 10X scale - I'd like to see him continue to do that even if a merger were to happen.


----------



## uhu

Hegarthy claims the new mine (Prominent Hill) will helps double production (copper).

Well, Hegarthy is famous for optimism. But, if it is true and production will be duplicated, OXR's share price can be around 5-5,5 Aud. (?)

But, production willl start only the end of the next year, so...what do you think about short-middle term of OXR's price?


----------



## Caliente

share price'll be fine- Oxiana is a beast =)

This last few days is the most activity i've seen in a long time. lends some credence to those M&A rumours. Question is - does OXR represent good value as an acquisition? With all the news i no longer have a precise estimate. 

hopefully ML will release a report soon.


----------



## uhu

Caliente said:


> share price'll be fine- Oxiana is a beast =)
> 
> This last few days is the most activity i've seen in a long time. lends some credence to those M&A rumours. Question is - does OXR represent good value as an acquisition? With all the news i no longer have a precise estimate.
> 
> hopefully ML will release a report soon.




What does "ML" mean?
And: at least have you got tips for tomorrow (maybe today in Australia)?


----------



## Caliente

hi maite - ML is shorthand for Merrill Lynch. They're my full service broker. I bought Oxiana a few years ago when they first initiated coverage on the stock under a dollar.


----------



## uhu

Caliente said:


> hi maite - ML is shorthand for Merrill Lynch. They're my full service broker. I bought Oxiana a few years ago when they first initiated coverage on the stock under a dollar.




Could you write it to this forum? 
I've read some analysis about target price os Oxiana, generally it is about 4 aud, see macquieieie-etc bank, maybe one of suisse bank also.
US. markets: down, so i am not optimistic for tomorrow.


----------



## bigdog

Todays Age

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...d/2007/10/30/1193618885061.html?page=fullpage
Oxiana to outlay $1bn on copper and gold

Barry Fitzgerald
October 31, 2007

HAVING missed out in the bidding duel for nickel producer Jubilee Mines to Xstrata's $3.1 billion king hit, Melbourne's Oxiana has got around to the more mundane task of repricing the development cost of its Prominent Hill copper/gold project in outback South Australia at $1.08 billion.

After allowing for an increased contingency, and ignoring an increase in the scope of the project, the new budget represents a 27 per cent increase on the $850 million estimate made in August last year.

But Oxiana's advice that Prominent Hill would generate bumper annual earnings before interest, tax and depreciation of $700 million at present metal prices and exchange rates limited the fallout.

The EBITDA potential points to a rapid payback on development costs of about 18 months for what is shaping up as at least a 22-year project. It is believed it was that earnings potential, along with access to a $2 billion credit line from ANZ, that put Oxiana in the hunt for Jubilee.

Oxiana would not confirm yesterday that it had lodged a losing bid to Xstrata's king hit. But Oxiana managing director Owen Hegarty said it was no secret that "we want to be in the nickel business one way or the other".

The cost increase at Prominent Hill makes Oxiana the latest resource developer to feel the impact of tight construction market conditions and cost increases in materials and equipment ”” the so-called downside to the commodities boom.

"I think we've nailed it now," Mr Hegarty said. "We've got that little bit of extra padding with the contingency (up from $75 million to $88 million) and we're only 12 months away from commissioning. Being within the zone of a 30 per cent increase inside of 12 months is actually not too bad when compared with what other people are experiencing.

"Just about every second you turn around, the price of something else has gone up."

The market had been softened up for the capital cost increase when Oxiana released its September quarter report last week. While the $230 million increase was as much as twice what some in the market were expecting, Oxiana's share price emerged relatively unscathed, easing 8 ¢ to $4.03 in yesterday's generally weaker market for mining stocks.

"We're never comfortable with things going up, except for the prices of our commodities. But in this case, it's probably not too bad," Mr Hegarty said.

He also highlighted that while Prominent Hill was initially being developed as a 10-year project, exploration at depth and to the west and east was pointing to a much longer life. "What we've got is something that will grow. Long-term planning is for a project out to 2030," he said.

The reporter owns Oxiana shares.


----------



## dutchie

Unusual depth at moment.
The ask volume is low (often going to zero).
No one wants to sell.
Price slowly rising.
Is there an announcement due?

Cheers

Dutchie


----------



## Nyden

dutchie said:


> Unusual depth at moment.
> The ask volume is low (often going to zero).
> No one wants to sell.
> Price slowly rising.
> Is there an announcement due?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Dutchie




I think it's more a case of sheep reinforcement 
Because the price is rising, people are assuming something must be in the works, therefore they buy - & in turn this raises the price more so; and the momentum just keeps going until people start realising that maybe nothing is actually going on!

Well, at least that's what I'm hoping :
I was going to double my holding in OXR this morning during the drop; went to the post office first; came home to a rise!


----------



## uhu

Well, aussie stocks sometimes move a bit strangely.

Most of miners went down in US and Australia, but OXR didn't...volume was strong. And, If we compare it with other stocks, we can notice an interesting thing.
There is an other stock with very strong trading volume and with price'change about 5%...this is Zinifex. But, Oxiana lifted but Zinifex went to downstair again...(????)


----------



## Aargh!

uhu said:


> Well, aussie stocks sometimes move a bit strangely.
> 
> Most of miners went down in US and Australia, but OXR didn't...volume was strong. And, If we compare it with other stocks, we can notice an interesting thing.
> There is an other stock with very strong trading volume and with price'change about 5%...this is Zinifex. But, Oxiana lifted but Zinifex went to downstair again...(????)




Zinifex is down because its ex dividend. Most of my mining portfolio went well today with a overall positive result for the day. I'm not sure if Oxiana is rising just on rumours of mergers.


----------



## uhu

Aargh! said:


> Zinifex is down because its ex dividend. Most of my mining portfolio went well today with a overall positive result for the day. I'm not sure if Oxiana is rising just on rumours of mergers.




Well, Zinifex went down 1 aud because it's after exdiv date yesterday, but it went down an other 1 aud today - so the reason is not exdiv date.
Well, I have only two aussie stocks...but what mining stocks you have?


----------



## Aargh!

uhu said:


> Well, Zinifex went down 1 aud because it's after exdiv date yesterday, but it went down an other 1 aud today - so the reason is not exdiv date.
> Well, I have only two aussie stocks...but what mining stocks you have?




The stocks that pulled me up today were OXR, KZL, MLX, POS, GGY, ARE. I don't hold Zinifex so I  don't track it religiously.


----------



## Caliente

Not really supposed to upload broker reports (they have a clause I'm sure somewhere!) but whatever =)

Coverage is Neutral because of Capex at Prominent Hill, but everybody knows about that. 

Bear in mind the ML style is really conservative, they hardly ever give buy recommendations and when they do its only a few cents above the current market cap with a 12 month objective which I find entertaining.

Enjoy
-Cali

PS - wasn't that a pleasant rise today!


----------



## Kruegs

_Because the price is rising, people are assuming something must be in the works, therefore they buy - & in turn this raises the price more so; and the momentum just keeps going until people start realising that maybe nothing is actually going on!

Well, at least that's what I'm hoping
I was going to double my holding in OXR this morning during the drop; went to the post office first; came home to a rise!​_
For the same logic I bought some PUT options on OXR first up this morning. Looking a bit dismal today, but will hold on until any news comes clear.

Cheers
Kruegs


----------



## robandcoll

PH expectations are part of the reason I suspect.  I have brought OXR over over many years but PH is the jewell in the crown.The market is now realising that PH could deliver the goods big time despite its cost blow out, which was released this week. The market did not react.  That is my interpretation anyway. Will hold and long the OX


----------



## overule

Caliente said:


> Not really supposed to upload broker reports (they have a clause I'm sure somewhere!) but whatever =)
> 
> Coverage is Neutral because of Capex at Prominent Hill, but everybody knows about that.
> 
> Bear in mind the ML style is really conservative, they hardly ever give buy recommendations and when they do its only a few cents above the current market cap with a 12 month objective which I find entertaining.
> 
> Enjoy
> -Cali
> 
> PS - wasn't that a pleasant rise today!





May i know where do you get this type of report ? Do you pay for this ? If so where ?
It's informative.

Thanks


----------



## Caliente

yes, unfortunately you do need to pay or at least hold an account with a provider to get broker analysis. 

How to get an account with ML in australia - no idea. You should enquire  - but it pays for itself in the long run.

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## uhu

Hi Cali,

You are very kindly. Well, I (we) hope this analysys is much better than the others about subprime credits...ML's CEO was just kicked off.

Well, I ve got some favourite stocks in Europe what I would buy (but no cash, so that's why I am thinking about hold or sell Oxiana), but, I think I give more time to this aussie company. I hope it won't be a bad decesion.

If you want, I can also upload my broker calls. Unfortunatly, language is hungarian...

see you

owl


----------



## Nyden

Well, unless we do get some news soon - it could definately fall.

How can a stock of this price rise in 12% in 2 days based on no news?
I always prefer a stock to be undervalued, as opposed to over, that way I can consistently top up 

I think OXR is going to miss out on the little rally today; surely it can't add another few % onto that!


----------



## bigdog

Todays Age

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...n/2007/10/31/1193618973442.html?page=fullpage

*Oxiana shares rise on takeover speculation*

Barry Fitzgerald
November 1, 2007
Advertisement

AS OXIANA'S share price rose against the trend, a predictable wave of takeover talk surrounding the $6.5 billion base and precious metals producer erupted once more.

Oxiana closed 17 ¢ higher at $4.20, a gain of 4.2 per cent, on a day when the rest of the sector was off heavily because of overnight weakness in metal prices. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto were both down 1.7 per cent.

Oxiana's rise was also against a backdrop of generally negative broker reports in response to its Tuesday announcement that the development cost of its Prominent Hill copper/gold mine in South Australia had increased by 27 per cent to $1.08 billion.

The stock's rise against the trend was attributed to speculation that cashed-up zinc producer Zinifex had Oxiana in its sights, if not by an agreed merger then by an aggressive takeover.

The $8.1 billion Zinifex is about to bank net proceeds of $1.5 billion from the sale of its smelting assets through the float of the European-based Nyrstar.

Zinifex has said that no decision on the funds would be made until a February board meeting and that it could sit on the cash until August as it sorts through merger and acquisition opportunities. If it cannot find the right deal, the cash will be returned to shareholders.

While the Zinifex bid rumour refuses to die, Oxiana's share-price pop also reflects increased overseas buying of the stock in the wake of Xstrata's $3.1 billion agreed takeover bid for nickel producer Jubilee. The premium in that offer has prompted a broader rethink of the value of mining assets should, as Xstrata has bet, above-average metal prices continue in the long run. It has also prompted questions about which mid-tier group will be knocked off next.

Yesterday's gain for Oxiana was despite Deutsche downgrading the stock to a "hold" because of the development-cost increase at Prominent Hill. It has a 12-month price target for the stock of $3.85. UBS remained "neutral", with a $4.20 a share target, while JPMorgan maintained an underweight recommendation, with a June 2008 price target of $2.70 a share.

The reporter owns Oxiana shares.

http://tinyurl.com/23ehar


----------



## Nick Radge

> How can a stock of this price rise in 12% in 2 days based on no news?




Nyden,
Its important to understand that the market discounts future events. Future expectations are what drive prices and market adjustments come from unexpected events. This is why its very important to understand volume because its within volume that we can read greed and fear. 

Below is my take on OXR. Disclosure: I am long OXR. The chart clearly show prices testing the all time highs set earlier this year. Notice what prices do on the move from $4.00 back to the recent lows at $3.60 and also notice what happens with the volume. The volume declines. This means that there is no serious selling taking place which is a positive sign. But more importantly is the pattern. This little 'flag' pattern as its known became known to me back in 1995. I noticed that these always tended to appear right at old highs - exactly as this one has done. Its caused from 'weaker' hands taking profits, which is why the volume is low. Its Mum's and Dad's selling to take their profits. They see the old highs and naturally assume that prices stopped there before and it will happen again. They take their profits causing the little dip. However, those in the know, and believe me there are those in the know, take that opportunity of the dip to buy in some more. Notice last week that prices could keep moving lower but volume started building? This is the buyers steeping in to meet the minor sellers. They stopped the downdraft. They were buying the dip and supporting price. 

Monday was a very important day. It shows that the buyers awaiting the dip could not wait any longer. They had to start marking prices up for fear of missing the move. This mark up is called 'jump across the creek'. Its a high volume, wide bar 'jumping' across resistance. 

Does this mean there is an announcement coming? Who knows. It may have been because of the FOMC meeting. They new the US would cut rates. They knew this would place downward pressure on the US$ and therefore upward pressure on commodities. What we now have is prices sitting above significant support which is probably going to act as a cushion for further advances.








_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
_


----------



## Nick Radge

I should add that I entered on the 22nd at $3.72. I got stopped out at breakeven on the 25th. I entered again on the 29th at $3.89.


----------



## Caliente

Kruegs said:


> _Because the price is rising, people are assuming something must be in the works, therefore they buy - & in turn this raises the price more so; and the momentum just keeps going until people start realising that maybe nothing is actually going on!
> 
> Well, at least that's what I'm hoping
> I was going to double my holding in OXR this morning during the drop; went to the post office first; came home to a rise!​_
> For the same logic I bought some PUT options on OXR first up this morning. Looking a bit dismal today, but will hold on until any news comes clear.
> 
> Cheers
> Kruegs




i'm gathering that these are pretty much worthless at this stage ^_-

I'd hold on though - OXR has been the subject of so many takeover rumours its old hat. So if the "talks" falls through you might get some cash back.

Cali
- The Oxiana Permabull.


----------



## Nyden

I keep wanting to increase my holding on OXR each day, but fear each day that it's hit the ceiling. Today once again - up 6%! I know once I buy more, it'll suddenly drop 15% 

OXR's actually been my best holding, shame it's my smallest - with a gain of over 45% in less than a year....not bad.

Is there actually a *reason* for this price rise? Aside from takeover speculation? (I guess rising metal prices have helped though ) Maybe people are just starting to appreciate it more; I just keep fearing it's the 'hot' money sitting in on this, and they'll all flock away soon enough.


----------



## legs

Nyden said:


> I keep wanting to increase my holding on OXR each day, but fear each day that it's hit the ceiling. Today once again - up 6%! I know once I buy more, it'll suddenly drop 15%
> 
> OXR's actually been my best holding, shame it's my smallest - with a gain of over 45% in less than a year....not bad.
> 
> Is there actually a *reason* for this price rise? Aside from takeover speculation? (I guess rising metal prices have helped though ) Maybe people are just starting to appreciate it more; I just keep fearing it's the 'hot' money sitting in on this, and they'll all flock away soon enough.




Nyden,
My plan at the moment is below $4, buy more, Above $4 smile!! I believe it will be sooner rather than later a takeover offer is made and I have heard the workers at PromHill have given up to the fact BHP will swallow them up!


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> Nyden,
> My plan at the moment is below $4, buy more, Above $4 smile!! I believe it will be sooner rather than later a takeover offer is made and I have heard the workers at PromHill have given up to the fact BHP will swallow them up!





It's hard to smile with such a small holding though 
There's just something about OXR; I've never been able to take a punt on it.

I'm impatient I guess, I want to quadrupole my holding, and I want to now! Dammit 

Where's a crystal ball when you need it!

& hey! I'm a Zinifex holder, I'm holding out for a merger there, so don't shatter my dreams


----------



## Rafa

till only a couple of months ago, BHP and OXR share prices tracked each others reasonably well i.e. divide BHP's price by 10, gave you OXR's...

but since the big subprime crash of couple of months back, BHP has outperformed everything including OXR. Looks like the two are slowing getting back together... maybe in more ways that one, eh legs?? 

The word from people who work at OXR is all talk is about when they going to get taken over... BUT i also think OXR may be the one doing some taking over of their own... Owen Hegarty ain't no slouch when it comes to wheeling and dealing.

all in all, as a very long term holder, i ain't too fussed about OXR's future for a while yet...


----------



## legs

Rafa said:


> till only a couple of months ago, BHP and OXR share prices tracked each others reasonably well i.e. divide BHP's price by 10, gave you OXR's...
> 
> but since the big subprime crash of couple of months back, BHP has outperformed everything including OXR. Looks like the two are slowing getting back together... maybe in more ways that one, eh legs??
> 
> The word from people who work at OXR is all talk is about when they going to get taken over... BUT i also think OXR may be the one doing some taking over of their own... Owen Hegarty ain't no slouch when it comes to wheeling and dealing.
> 
> all in all, as a very long term holder, i ain't too fussed about OXR's future for a while yet...




I too am a long term holder, I originally bought the majoirty of my parcel @ $0.90 and have added to it as my paper profits took of with it. O.H. plans to increase it 10x so I am happy to hold it as long as it takes. I have faith in him, but welcome a takeover offer too...lol


----------



## uhu

About impact of BHP-Rio M&A.

Well this can be a good news for Oxiana, think the impact of Xstrata's bid...

But...if BHP-Rio deal will work, the biggest player will be out from the following M&A games.

So, this megabid good or bad for Oxiana?



Why did I chose OXR and ZFX instead of Rio and BHP...


----------



## Sean K

uhu said:


> So, this megabid good or bad for Oxiana?



Most probably very good for OXR. All the mid tiers will be given a boost I'd say. If BHP doesn't get RIO, then they'll be picking some other things up...


----------



## Caliente

uhu... put it this way.

I'd say it'd take some one with watermelon balls to short Oxiana tommorow.

-Cali


----------



## uhu

Caliente said:


> uhu... put it this way.
> 
> I'd say it'd take some one with watermelon balls to short Oxiana tommorow.
> 
> -Cali




I am sorry, I don't understand...could you explain it?
I think it's a joke but - well, my english is not enough to interprete it.


----------



## Nyden

uhu said:


> I am sorry, I don't understand...could you explain it?
> I think it's a joke but - well, my english is not enough to interprete it.




He is implying that only someone very brave...or very stupid would short OXR today. Watermelons are of course a very large fruit, and balls...well, I'm sure even over there in hungary you know what those are


----------



## uhu

Thanks Nyden,

Well, yes, after the last nightmare in USA (see nasdaq) I have a beutiful morning. DAX is going up and aussies lifted.

Well, now I am thinking. To sell OXR or to not sell...the reason of higher prices is speculation. But, if BHP or ZFX or others won't buy for ex Oxiana...OXR will fal back.

So, maybe I wait. Probably speculation will not over, just (re)start, so, OXR's price will be higher (4,40-4,50). At this level I realise profit. Below 4,40 I will hold OXR and I will wait until Zinifex's annual meeting (2008 febr).

Dou you agree or not agree?


----------



## Nyden

uhu said:


> Thanks Nyden,
> 
> Well, yes, after the last nightmare in USA (see nasdaq) I have a beutiful morning. DAX is going up and aussies lifted.
> 
> Well, now I am thinking. To sell OXR or to not sell...the reason of higher prices is speculation. But, if BHP or ZFX or others won't buy for ex Oxiana...OXR will fal back.
> 
> So, maybe I wait. Probably speculation will not over, just (re)start, so, OXR's price will be higher (4,40-4,50). At this level I realise profit. Below 4,40 I will hold OXR and I will wait until Zinifex's annual meeting (2008 febr).
> 
> Dou you agree or not agree?





I do feel that OXR is awfully high right now; whether it's based on pure speculation...or whether it's actually finally settled at $4 is a tough call for me to make. OXR has been tempting $4 for a long time now - it depends on your individual strategy?

OXR has excellent long term potential, & fantastic management. It may well drop, or it may very well keep rising. Long term though, I'm convinced it's going to keep rising, or be taken over.

I think if it was based on pure speculation - we would have seen a drop by now. Providing we can get through this latest subprime fallout, the holiday season is always good for a rally, I'm going to keep holding my OXR.

But, it really depends on what you're comfortable with - I feel comfortable with any minor drop in OXR, because I bought in at under $3, but - I'm not sure at the price you bought in 

If you had a target price in mind though when entering OXR, if you feel comfortable with it - always stick with your gut!  We all have different strategies


----------



## greenfs

You guys are forgetting that OXR is riding high on the ever upward trend in the gold price. I am very comfortable with the current sp and think thay OXR will make $xx with a little more time on its own.

At least for the moment the staff will forget about the BHP threat and can get on with business.


----------



## bvbfan

Been a long term holder of OXR since 10c but have used this strength (over enthusiasm) to short via CFD's a large portion of  my holdings.

Copper and Zinc have declined and the only thing running the price up is the speculation of a takeover, which I've seen on numerous occasions only to see it drop back sharply.

I wouldn't rule out a drop to test $3 again.

As for OXR running on gold price, I really don't know why that is an issue.
OXR revenue from gold is about 15% (probably higher now with the move in prices). The only other reason to buy is the call option aspect for Martbabe which is at least 3 years away.


----------



## bloggs_oz

I'm in a similar position to you bvbfan.  While I like oxiana as a longer term holding, I think at their current price they're overvalued.  I hold OXR stock, but have also recently bought some PUT options.

I haven't been trading shares for long, but it does surprise me the number of people who think they can make money by buying a very volatile stock at all time highs on the back of speculation (no news) about a takeover.


----------



## prawn_86

bloggs_oz said:


> I haven't been trading shares for long, but it does surprise me the number of people who think they can make money by buying a very volatile stock at all time highs on the back of speculation (no news) about a takeover.




I am in the same position/thought process as you, but i have read about succesful fund managers that will only buy a stock at an all time high. And only add to their position when it hits an all time high again.

Strange...but it works for them


----------



## nomore4s

prawn_86 said:


> I am in the same position/thought process as you, but i have read about succesful fund managers that will only buy a stock at an all time high. And only add to their position when it hits an all time high again.
> 
> Strange...but it works for them




Generally a stock is at all time highs for a reason. Thats not to say that it might not be overvalued but it normally is a good sign because there is no overhead resistance, and things are normally very good for that particular stock hence it being at all time highs. It can also give holders a reason to hold on to the stock, cutting down the supply in the market.

Just because it's at all time highs doesn't mean it can't go higher.

My


----------



## legs

With copper at nearly at a 3mth low, the only way is up. Only a market correction or bad manufacturing figures can hurt it now. I dont believe profit takers would risk it going further higher and missing the boat.


----------



## uhu

legs said:


> With copper at nearly at a 3mth low, the only way is up. Only a market correction or bad manufacturing figures can hurt it now. I dont believe profit takers would risk it going further higher and missing the boat.





"only way is up"

Well, why do you think a 3month low level must hold copper's prices? Do you think it by technically?
In my opinion news from USA (or strikes in S Am or change of demand in China etc) can influence copper prices much better than the rules of chartanalysis.

But, while BHP-Rio case is alive (not finished, not ended), there is the possibility for other acq.
Maybe BHP won't able to get Rio. In this way, BHP probably will collect new mines from others. BHP has more than 100 billion - so, BHP can buy Oxiana, Paladin, Zinifex, Aluminia....at least 8-10 companies. It would be more difficult, but maybe cheaper than RIO.


----------



## Nyden

Just topped up today, with an open of +2% & a current gain of only .5% (I bought at 4.03); I believe we may see a further rise there  I'm comfortable with $4 as my entry - that area seemed to basically survive days of selling, so - I'm good.

I'm already sitting on a gain, no matter how small!


----------



## crayfish

greenfs said:


> You guys are forgetting that OXR is riding high on the ever upward trend in the gold price. I am very comfortable with the current sp and think thay OXR will make $xx with a little more time on its own.
> 
> At least for the moment the staff will forget about the BHP threat and can get on with business.




As bvb said the gold price has very little to do with the OXR sp. Cu and Zn are the 2 big earners. The current sp around $4 seems about right to me with near future upside with production in late '08 from Prominent Hill. 

Re ZFX, I'm not sure that it is exactly what OXR should be looking for. ZFX reserves are on the decline and OXR is looking for long-term and rapid growth projects. A merger would mean rapid growth but I feel it could only be sustained for a few years pending a BIG discovery. After all ZFX only really have 2 mines - OXR have 2 operating ones as well but it will be 4 by the time Martabe comes online. 

It can be viewed by the fact that ZFX are of late ramping up their own exploration efforts. Unless these come to fruition, in the short term, OXR would be better looking to take over smallish companies with multi Mt Cu deposits that are in advanced exploration or early feasibility. The Ox has stated that its also interested in Nickel and I wouldnt discount it from bulk commodities to achieve the growth it aspires to.

Anyway, there's my thoughts; Copper is up over one percent tonight so we may see some positiveness in the morning.

Substantial holder (In my book) since sub 90c days so I'm holding.


----------



## crayfish

p.s. Guaranteed, BHPB are NOT interested in OXR. Whilst they might be good hard workers I wouldn't go trusting most who work on mining camps about their opinion on M&A possibilities, and then use that info in my investment decisions.


----------



## uhu

Frreport +4%, Teck 3,1%, Southern Copper +7%, at 19 30 CET.
Will it be enough? These stocks have the same profil as OXR...and the takover roumors.
So, OXR should lift +4-5% in my opinion.

I bought at 3.80 and I had some possibilities to jump out...but, I know, it's a mistake, but I love this stock...and I think in next summer whe share price will be around xx aud (or 0 because of takever) a lot of people  will do this "Why I didn't buy..."


----------



## uhu

Earthquake in Chile...well, OXR's mines ar in the Australian Shield...no chance of Earthquake.

I really hope there will be NOT victims in South America, but I also hope this news will lift Oxi share price tomorrow.


----------



## legs

up 2.75% but concerned about the rumour of a takeover, buying ZFX that is. Do we need it? Isn't KZL or something a little more under developed more tempting? I dont believe it for a second. I believe it would be Xstrata doing the ZFX thing. Thoughts? Nice increase in copper last night.


----------



## legs

Anyone care to make a judgement on what would happen to OXR shareprice if it came out that they are making a 4 x OXR shares and $4 cash for each ZFX share?


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> Anyone care to make a judgement on what would happen to OXR shareprice if it came out that they are making a 4 x OXR shares and $4 cash for each ZFX share?




I think it would be a good buy (I hold both). Anyone buying ZFX at the moment isn't just buying its prospects, & current mines; but is also buying a heap of cash - I believe they have 2.6 billion in total, or is it only 1.6 

So - acquiring that sort of cash would be beneficial.

To be honest; I'd be happier in OXR buying ZFX, rather than ZFX buying OXR. I believe either way they're going to end up together - just depends on who's the pants wearer!

I believe it would help OXR's share price - as look at it this way, ZFX's earnings would no longer be hindered by those large dividends! (That's providing, it's a proper integration...and not just a 90% holding); Which is the main reason I would greatly prefer OXR bought ZFX, as opposed to the alternative.


----------



## bvbfan

Nyden said:


> Anyone buying ZFX at the moment isn't just buying its prospects, & current mines; but is also buying a heap of cash - I believe they have 2.6 billion in total, or is it only 1.6




Problem there is that OXR will use the funds in ZFX to pay the cash component of about $2billion if it is $4 cash component.

I'd think it would depress the OXR price like AGC did and MNR too


----------



## uhu

Well, newspaper said the cost of Prominent Hill project is much higher than expacted earlier. The difference is about 300 million.

So, how can OXR buy???

Well, maybe there is an other player in the shadow.


----------



## greenfs

If OXR buy ZFX, I will be "not happy, Jan". My main reason for saying this is that my broker has just come back from a junket tour of China with a number of investment heavies.

His first comment following his return yesterday was that the forecast forr future metal prices was all good with the EXCEPTION of zinc. I hope OXR are aware of this and act accordingly.


----------



## resourceboom

Hi greenfs, I would be interested in knowing what his reason was for zinc being the odd metal out?  do you know if it was just supply and demand, or something else?



greenfs said:


> His first comment following his return yesterday was that the forecast forr future metal prices was all good with the EXCEPTION of zinc. I hope OXR are aware of this and act accordingly.


----------



## YELNATS

greenfs said:


> His first comment following his return yesterday was that the forecast forr future metal prices was all good with the EXCEPTION of zinc. I hope OXR are aware of this and act accordingly.




Over what time horizon was this "forecast" made? It may only be a short term forecast, 6, 12, 18 months? I'm sure OXR, if they are interested in ZFX, would be looking at long term forecasts, ie. 5 , 10, 20 years and beyond.


----------



## Nyden

YELNATS said:


> Over what time horizon was this "forecast" made? It may only be a short term forecast, 6, 12, 18 months? I'm sure OXR, if they are interested in ZFX, would be looking at long term forecasts, ie. 5 , 10, 20 years and beyond.




*Long* term, anaylists are still rather positive on zinc - as a lot of mines will be nearing exhaustion in the coming years.

So far though, all just seems to have been rumor


----------



## greenfs

My broker has placed a $5 price tag on this stock on the basis that OXR will start paying dividends at a yield of 6% within the next 12 months. Given the inflow of capital from the UK asset sale, it makes some sense especially if management does not look to go on the acquisition trail. I for one will be very happy if OXR does not make a bid for ZFX given the forecast future price decline of zinc.

Longer term he has a much rosier outlook on the share price for this company.


----------



## michael_selway

greenfs said:


> My broker has placed a $5 price tag on this stock on the basis that OXR will start paying dividends at a yield of 6% within the next 12 months. Given the inflow of capital from the UK asset sale, it makes some sense especially if management does not look to go on the acquisition trail. I for one will be very happy if OXR does not make a bid for ZFX given the forecast future price decline of zinc.
> 
> Longer term he has a much rosier outlook on the share price for this company.




*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 36.6 25.0 25.8 43.1 
DPS 8.0 9.0 9.0 11.7 *



> Date: 1/11/2007
> Author: Barry FitzGerald
> Source: The Age --- Page: B3
> Oxiana shares rose $A0.17 to $A4.20 on 31 October 2007, as takeover rumourssurrounded the Australian miner. The increase occurred despite a generallynegative reaction by brokers to its announcement that development costs for itsProminent Hill copper and gold project in South Australia have risen 27% to$A1.08bn. The rise in Oxiana's share price was also contrary to the generaltrend for the resources sector, with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both declining1.7%. The market is speculating that zinc group Zinifex, which is about toreceive $A1.5bn in proceeds from the sale of its smelting assets through theNyrstar float, is interested in Oxiana
> 
> Date: 31/10/2007
> Author: Barry FitzGerald
> Source: The Age --- Page: B3
> Australian miner Oxiana has restated the development cost of its Prominent Hillcopper and gold project in South Australia as $A1.08bn. The new budget is 27%more than the original estimate of $A850m announced in August 2006. There was arelatively subdued reaction to the news of the new budget, as the company alsoindicated that the project would generate annual EBITDA of $A700m based oncurrent exchange rates and metal prices. Shares in Oxiana declined $A0.08 to$A4.03 on 30 October 2007
> 
> Date: 31/10/2007
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 55
> Oxiana restated the development cost of its Prominent Hill copper and goldproject in South Australia on 30 October 2007. Owen Hegarty, Oxiana MD, revealedto a reasonably subdued shareholder reaction - shares only declined $A0.08 to$A4.03 on 30 October - that Prominent Hill's budget has been increased$A230 million to $A1.8 billion. Adam Dixon, of Ausbil Dexia, believes it isbetter to have increased Prominent Hill's budget than allow the project tobe delayed from its scheduled production start date in the third quarter of 2008


----------



## legs

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...wn-LME-slides-98CAB?OpenDocument?OpenDocument

Shanghai copper, zinc limit down, LME slides
Reuters 

SINGAPORE -- Shanghai copper and zinc futures fell by their daily limits and support for London futures faded as the appetite for risk shrank and investors bailed out of commodities. 

The January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by its 4 percent daily limit to 55,780 yuan ($US7,513) from Monday's settlement. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was down 3.2 percent, or $US20, at an eight-month low of $US6,575 after a 3.5 per cent slide on Monday. 

"Absolutely brutal" was how Investec described trading on the LME, adding: "The whole base metals complex received a thorough hammering as sustained selling dominated proceedings." 

Dealers said copper could fall to $US6,000 if markets fail to stabilise this week. 

"We have nudged below support at $US6,800, which suggests more falls to come. If we close below here for the week we could see copper down to $US6,000," a dealer in Hong Kong said. 

Angst about credit markets was heightened after Goldman Sachs cut Citigroup to "sell" and said the bank may have to write off $US15 billion against mortgage losses, while Swiss Re , the world's biggest reinsurer, revealed a $US1 billion writedown related to credit losses. 

"The concern is that if there are unknown losses still to be recorded, the risk aversion that has been present in markets will remain," said Tony Brennan, equity strategist at Deutsche Bank. 

In New York, COMEX copper for December delivery shed 17.80 cents, or 5.6 per cent, to settle at $US2.9835 a lb. 

"The fall is mostly psychologically driven, as consumption in China remains stable," said Shen Haihua, an analyst at Maike Futures. 

"Some funds have moved their copper positions to far forward contracts in London to avoid some of the risk inherent in the three-month contract," he said, adding that they were gambling that global output would be lower-than-expected due to production problems and higher energy costs. 

January's zinc contract was down by its 6 per cent daily limit at 18,205 yuan after falling limit down on Friday and Monday as investors fretted that a rumoured change in Chinese export taxes will leave the country awash with the metal. 

Benchmark LME zinc tumbled 3.6 percent or $US85 to $US2,270 a tonne, while lead dropped 2.5 per cent to $US2,965. 

"Lead was by far the biggest loser on the day, plummeting by almost 9 per cent as funds liquidated long positions," Investec said. 

Lead has come under pressure since Ivernia , which runs the Magellan lead mine in Western Australia, said last week that it was confident that it would get approval to restart shipments from the mine. 

Exports of lead concentrate were halted in March due to bird deaths near the port of Esperance possibly due to lead poisoning. 

Resource stocks were further pressured by declines in metals prices and worries that demand will be hurt by gathering gloom about the world economy. 

Mining giant BHP Billiton fell more than 3 per cent, Korea Zinc slid 7 per cent and Sumitomo Metal Mining fell 4.5 per cent. 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Nyden

I bought a lot more OXR today, after getting out of a spec play. At a 6% drop; a recovery would be fantastic  I hope to see a gain as early as tomorrow :


Whatever happened to all those takeover rumors? Taken a back seat already?


----------



## bvbfan

Around these levels I think OXR presents good value for long termers. Sure it could drop to 3.25-3.50 still on back of metals weakness.

I have covered my CFD shorts and gone long a small parcel. Still remain short via written calls.

The copper and probably zinc outlook for next few months don't look too crash hot with shutdowns starting next month for the Christmas, New Year period. I'd be surprized by any great draw on inventories.

Let's see if it plays out like last year?


----------



## golfmos123

Nyden, I'm with you.

Have also bought OXR recently and am still sitting on parcels bought well below $3 around 6 mths ago.  Any price below $4 is good buying on this one.  Any further takeover talk will send it upwards quickly.   Plus IMHO I think it is a good long termer anyway, takeover or not.


----------



## legs

golfmos123 said:


> Nyden, I'm with you.
> 
> Have also bought OXR recently and am still sitting on parcels bought well below $3 around 6 mths ago.  Any price below $4 is good buying on this one.  Any further takeover talk will send it upwards quickly.   Plus IMHO I think it is a good long termer anyway, takeover or not.




I've been holding onto them since $0.90 and believe me it's been a ride! But I always had the opinion it would be a long term prospect and I am continually having to tell myself this, and resist the selling urge.


----------



## imajica

This massive drop is merely a knee jerk reaction to US sharemarket weakness
and a temporary drop in base metal prices. OXR represents good value now and have decided to buy some today.


----------



## legs

imajica said:


> This massive drop is merely a knee jerk reaction to US sharemarket weakness
> and a temporary drop in base metal prices. OXR represents good value now and have decided to buy some today.




For copper to be down about 18% and zinc 30% from yearly highs and OXIANA being down about 15%...its not to bad a situation to be in. I am holding. It will come back in the short term IMO.


----------



## imajica

Is the Ox eyeing Equinox?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, November 23, 2007
Kate Haycock

AN OXIANA and Zinifex merger has been rumoured for months now, but could Oxiana be considering a takeover play for emerging copper miner Equinox Minerals instead?

Oxiana is rumoured to be considering a bid for Equinox, which is rapidly progressing its substantial Lumwana copper project in Zambia into production.

Oxiana managing director Owen Hegarty has not been shy about his expansion plans for the company, which have so far focused on Australia and the Asia Pacific. 

The company's flagship operations include the Sepon gold and copper project in Laos and the Golden Grove copper-zinc-gold and silver mine in Western Australia. 

These combined operations are expected to produce up to 78,000 tonnes of copper, 150,000t zinc, and up to 65,000oz of gold.

The Melbourne-based mid-tier miner is also bringing the Prominent Hill project online, with production expected to start next year. In its first full year of production, Prominent Hill is expected to produce 117,000t of copper, 86,000oz gold and 390,000oz of silver.

Equinox's Lumwana project, due to come online in the second quarter of 2008, has a production rate target of 169,000t of copper concentrates a year for the first six years, and a planned mine life of 37 years.

The project is the largest single foreign investment in the African nation of Zambia, and once it reaches targeted production will be a substantial copper producer. Equinox is also looking at establishing uranium production from the mine. 

However, dual-listed Equinox would not be a cheap buy: the company's market capitalisation in Australia is $2.72 billion, while on the Toronto Stock Exchange it has a market cap of $C2.38 billion ($A2.77 billion). 

Oxiana has a market cap of around $A5.48 billion on the ASX.

Equinox would be a new foray for Oxiana beyond its Asia-Pacific focus. Previously, the Ox has been linked with zinc miner Zinifex, but a deal between the two has yet to materialise.

Equinox managing director Craig Williams was not available for comment this morning. 

Shares in the company were last trading at $4.81, down 16c, while Oxiana was last at $3.57, up 5c.


----------



## legs

41,000,000 traded as at 320pm..15,400,000 is average...was it the end of options that did this or is there something more to it? Any whispers out there again?


----------



## Aargh!

legs said:


> 41,000,000 traded as at 320pm..15,400,000 is average...was it the end of options that did this or is there something more to it? Any whispers out there again?




Not sure if this is the reason but in todays Fin Review there was an article saying how Oxiana has been shortlisted for a mine in India


----------



## legs

legs said:


> 41,000,000 traded as at 320pm..15,400,000 is average...was it the end of options that did this or is there something more to it? Any whispers out there again?




89,388,978 bloody trades....HUGE. What the heck was it all about?  I am sure its not just a mine posibility or end of options.


----------



## imajica

some massive buying today - about six times the usual volume - someone knows something! we could be due for a positive announcement methinks!


----------



## legs

imajica said:


> some massive buying today - about six times the usual volume - someone knows something! we could be due for a positive announcement methinks!





Please correct if i am wrong but some 40,000,000 in last half hour was traded...
I am only looking at a very basic chart as my other system has crashed. But if this is true, there is definately something cooking.


----------



## bigdog

There was a big finish to the "after close trading" where it looks like 17,014,568	 shares were traded for $66,865,418
-- I was having problems paging through the "course of sales" for the day.
-- perhaps too many trades

I imagine that brokers can only control the "after hour close trading" 4:00 to 4:10 PM

This volume and 6.5% increase indicates something is happening or about to erupt!

OXR   	$3.93  	   	  +$0.24   	  +6.50%   	 high of  $3.93  	  	 93,199,339 shares $359,377,985 @ 	 30-Nov 16:53:57


----------



## 3MT

Wish I still kept my holdings. Good luck to those who still hold.

Noticed the recent outgoing director was still holding 900,000 plus shares. Nice payout.


----------



## bigdog

Take a look at the very late special sales after 4:10 PM trades

Another 31,502,994 shares $123,724,072	traded after the 4:10 PM close!

Sure looks like something is about to happen!!!!!!!!!!!!

 OXR   	$3.93  	   	  +$0.24   	  +6.50%  	 98,958,578  shares	 $381,997,232 @ 	 30-Nov 18:18:05 (this excludes three later trades totaling 22.1 million shares)


Today: 30-Nov-2007				
Time---- 	Price 	Volume--- Value----- Condition Codes
18:54:33	 3.93 	7,409,782	 29,098,214 	SXXT
18:48:17	 3.93 	12,438,264	 48,845,063 	SXXT
18:25:24	 3.93 	2,306,662	 9,058,262 	SXXT
18:13:43	 3.93 	3,713,901	 14,584,489 	SXXT
17:07:51	 3.79 	15,721	 59,520 	SXXT
17:00:06	 3.93 	34,870	 137,039 	LTXT
16:59:55	 3.93 	1,785,163	 7,013,905 	SXXT
16:59:35	 3.93 	34,870	 137,039 	LTXT
16:59:35	 3.93 	34,870	 137,039 	LTXT
16:59:06	 3.93 	57,905	 227,682 	SXXT
16:58:01	 3.93 	256,152	 1,007,190 	SXXT
16:52:01	 3.93 	83,355	 327,752 	SXXT
16:49:11	 3.93 	25,445	 99,999 	SXXT
16:48:30	 3.93 	86,431	 339,674 	SXXT
16:42:57	 3.93 	419,626	 1,649,130 	SPXT
16:40:32	 3.93 	92,439	 363,285 	LTXT
16:36:34	 3.93 	36,405	 143,072 	LTXT
16:36:23	 3.93 	104,473	 410,579 	SXXT
16:36:23	 3.93 	104,473	 410,579 	SXXT
16:31:43	 3.93 	1,834,001	 7,205,790 	SXXT
16:25:46	 3.93 	128,186	 503,771 	SXXT
16:17:08	 3.93 	500,000	 1,965,000 	SPXT

----- total 		31,502,994	$123,724,072


----------



## Nyden

bigdog said:


> Take a look at the very late special sales after 4:10 PM trades
> 
> Another 31,502,994 shares $123,724,072	traded after the 4:10 PM close!
> 
> Sure looks like something is about to happen!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> OXR   	$3.93  	   	  +$0.24   	  +6.50%  	 98,958,578  shares	 $381,997,232 @ 	 30-Nov 18:18:05 (this excludes three later trades totaling 22.1 million shares)
> 
> 
> Today: 30-Nov-2007
> Time---- 	Price 	Volume--- Value----- Condition Codes
> 18:54:33	 3.93 	7,409,782	 29,098,214 	SXXT
> 18:48:17	 3.93 	12,438,264	 48,845,063 	SXXT
> 18:25:24	 3.93 	2,306,662	 9,058,262 	SXXT
> 18:13:43	 3.93 	3,713,901	 14,584,489 	SXXT
> 17:07:51	 3.79 	15,721	 59,520 	SXXT
> 17:00:06	 3.93 	34,870	 137,039 	LTXT
> 16:59:55	 3.93 	1,785,163	 7,013,905 	SXXT
> 16:59:35	 3.93 	34,870	 137,039 	LTXT
> 16:59:35	 3.93 	34,870	 137,039 	LTXT
> 16:59:06	 3.93 	57,905	 227,682 	SXXT
> 16:58:01	 3.93 	256,152	 1,007,190 	SXXT
> 16:52:01	 3.93 	83,355	 327,752 	SXXT
> 16:49:11	 3.93 	25,445	 99,999 	SXXT
> 16:48:30	 3.93 	86,431	 339,674 	SXXT
> 16:42:57	 3.93 	419,626	 1,649,130 	SPXT
> 16:40:32	 3.93 	92,439	 363,285 	LTXT
> 16:36:34	 3.93 	36,405	 143,072 	LTXT
> 16:36:23	 3.93 	104,473	 410,579 	SXXT
> 16:36:23	 3.93 	104,473	 410,579 	SXXT
> 16:31:43	 3.93 	1,834,001	 7,205,790 	SXXT
> 16:25:46	 3.93 	128,186	 503,771 	SXXT
> 16:17:08	 3.93 	500,000	 1,965,000 	SPXT
> 
> ----- total 		31,502,994	$123,724,072






Might just be time to upgrade OXR's "" to a  in my signature! Hopefully ZFX is going to make a move :

Edited my post, was no longer relevant :


----------



## legs

So to just clarify this situation, the late trades haven't been priced into the SP and are they buy trades? I dont fully understand the coding. If they aren't factored in the price yet and are definately buy transactions, what effectively would the price be? 
If they aren't defined as buy trades,  could they be sell orders after a good day?


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> So to just clarify this situation, the late trades haven't been priced into the SP and are they buy trades? I dont fully understand the coding. If they aren't factored in the price yet and are definately buy transactions, what effectively would the price be?
> If they aren't defined as buy trades,  could they be sell orders after a good day?




Today's jump is most likely just tied to a few facts - the fact that Copper has been rising quite well, & the fact that OXR has taken a slightly irrational beating as of late. Furthermore - there is speculation of OXR buying a mine off Rio.


> Oxiana Ltd., the fastest growing of Australia's 10 largest mining companies, may bid for Rio's $1.25 billion Northparkes copper and gold mine, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHteFwYWFhgs&refer=home

& last, but certainly not least - 
http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/financial summary 07/msci_nov07_stpr.pdf



> Geneva, November 5, 2007 - MSCI Barra, a leading provider of benchmark indices and risk management analytics
> products, announced today changes to the MSCI Global Standard Indices that will be made as of the close of
> November 30, 2007. These changes result from the November 2007 Semi-Annual Index Review and the first phase
> of the transition to the MSCI Global Investable Market Indices Methodology.




May certainly explain the post-close volume.


----------



## golfmos123

Yes, something definitely in the wind.  Thought the drop into the 350s was a little strange but it seems to have been the trigger for something.  I guess we wait until Mon/Tues to see what shakes out.  Nice SP rise for ZFX today as well - wonder if it is related???


----------



## uhu

HUH!!!!!!

When I wake up at about 7 am CET and i checked my portfolio I couldn't believe to my eyes. The volume was 6 fold....but now I noticed it was more, almoust 8fold....

Well, I have found only two news:
- OXR's bid for Northparkes copper and gold mine,
- OXR is competing with Anglo American Plc to buy a copper mine in India from Hindustan Copper Ltd

So, I don' understand it. When I noticed the extra volume I thought an other company have a bid for buying oxiana....so, this is unusual for me.
But, Zinifex also had a large volume....?share exchange between Zinifex and Oxiana?????


----------



## legs

This shows the volume and a comparison of the last years average daily volumes. It has to be a huge announcement. Lots more than when rumours boosted the price last time.

Any guesses what the opening price will be?

ASX will have to ask OXR for an explanation of volume wont they??


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> This shows the volume and a comparison of the last years average daily volumes. It has to be a huge announcement. Lots more than when rumours boosted the price last time.
> 
> Any guesses what the opening price will be?
> 
> ASX will have to ask OXR for an explanation of volume wont they??




Read my last post, I think I explained what most of the volume was - especially the volume after the close. : ; funds were forced to purchase a certain percentage of stock.

As to monday's open - I think we can assume it will be a positive day. Copper once again rose, as did a lot of other base metals.

There's that strike at the Peruvian ports, blocking shipments of copper (yay)
And, well yeah.


----------



## Flick15

Well who knows where the sp could head from here and in case anyone missed this piece of news, could be interesting if India is added to the OXR melting pot:

DJ Five Cos In Running For India's Kehtri Copper Mine - Report 29/11/2007 08:24AM AEST 

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) is one of five companies shortlisted to take control of the Kehtri copper deposit in northern India, said the Australian Financial Review Thursday. 

Citing Hundustan Copper Ltd. (513599.BY) executive director O.P. Singh, the newspaper said India Resources Ltd. (IRL.AU) and Anglo American PLC (AAL.LN) were also among five companies in the running for the mine. 

Singh said the mine, currently closed after open-pit operations were exhausted, could support annual production of up to 16,000 tons of copper metal, and had extensive exploration potential."


----------



## legs

Nyden said:


> Read my last post, I think I explained what most of the volume was - especially the volume after the close. : ; funds were forced to purchase a certain percentage of stock.
> 
> As to monday's open - I think we can assume it will be a positive day. Copper once again rose, as did a lot of other base metals.
> 
> There's that strike at the Peruvian ports, blocking shipments of copper (yay)
> And, well yeah.




Sorry but i wasn't asking for any reasons why the trades went through. It was/is obviously more than just strikes and funds being forced to buy certain amounts of shares, IMO. Show me where a share has traded nearly 8 x its daily average without a big announcement to follow. I would be very surprised to many instances at all, if any!


----------



## imajica

OXR smashes through the $4 barrier

3 December 2007
AUSTRALIAN STOCK EXCHANGE AND MEDIA RELEASE
SEPON COPPER OPERATION TO BE EXPANDED 


Oxiana’s Board has approved an expansion of the Sepon Copper operation from 60,000t/a nameplate capacity to 80,000 t/a by 2010. The estimated capital cost is US$178 million and overall life-of-mine cash operating costs will be reduced by approximately 10%.
Background
Oxiana’s Sepon Copper operation in the Lao PDR commenced production in 2005, and in 2007 will produce 60,000t to 63,000t of copper metal cathodes. The operation is based on mining from the high grade Khanong deposit, with the nature of the ore allowing processing - via whole-of-ore leach, solvent-extraction and electrowinning - to final copper cathode metal on site. By the end of 2007 more than 150,000t of copper cathodes will have been produced since commissioning.
Exploration has seen further copper Resources discovered at the Thengkham North and Thengkham South deposits, approximately 7 kilometres west of the plant (Figure 1). These additional Resources, along with further exploration success in and around the Khanong orebody have justified an expansion of processing capacity. A full Resource and Reserve update will be published in March 2008.
Project Scope
Throughput of the plant will be increased from 1.35Mt/a to 2Mt/a. Introduction of lower-grade ore from the Thengkham deposits will see the head-grade reduced from 5.3% copper to 4.3% copper. Sepon will remain one of the world’s highest grade copper mines (Figure 2).
The main additions to the plant under the approved expansion will be a larger new primary crusher, an additional 8 CCD tank train, commensurate leaching capacity additions and 24 new electro-winning cells. A number of debottlenecking and improvement projects will also be undertaken within the expansion scope of works. Work will begin immediately and forecast construction completion is 4th Quarter 2009. Mine life will be in excess of 10 years


----------



## uhu

Well, I am really suprised. I have waited large volume and soaring price as we coluld see at Friday. And, I thought there would be an announcement or at least a small article about the reasons of the friday record volume....

But, now, I can see only a normal volume.

So, are there informations about these?


----------



## overule

The large amount of volumes you saw were because of options that have expired and they were forced to buy back a certain amount of shares.


----------



## uhu

OK. 
But why was it happenned in one day and espacially the very end of that day?

Well, I'm optimistic. If there will not be an acquisition, OXR' share price will be duplicated in the next years. If there will be an acq, I will earn some money now...both scenario are good for me.


----------



## bvbfan

Forget options related activity (which I work out as about 6million from expiry)

The majority I suspect were requirements for the MSCI World Index inclusion to take effect this week.

Funds may have been doing some shuffling between funds.


----------



## legs

Aussie stocks higher; Zinifex up on takeover talk

Thursday December 6, 2007, 12:21 pm


(Adds Zinifex, updates indexes)

SYDNEY, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Australian shares rose 1.2 percent to a three-week high on Thursday, with U.S.-exposed firms such as Westfield Group (ASX: WDC.ax) leading gains after upbeat economic data eased fears of a recession in the world's biggest economy.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index .AXJO rose 79.2 points to 6,587.3 by 0107 GMT, its highest level since Nov. 15, after falling 0.35 percent in the previous session.

New Zealand's benchmark NZX-50 index .NZ50 fell 0.4 percent, or 15.94 points, to 4,018.61. The top stock, Telecom Corp of New Zealand Ltd (NZX: TEL.nz) , was down 0.2 percent at NZ$4.32.

STOCKS ON THE MOVE

* Zinc miner Zinifex Ltd (ASX: ZFX.ax) jumped 5.5 percent to A$15.93, with dealers citing rumours that Swiss mining group Xstrata XTA.L may make A$20.00 per share offer for Zinifex, valuing the firm at A$9.7 billion ($8.4 billion).

_*There has also been market speculation in recent weeks that fellow miner Oxiana Resources Ltd (ASX: OXR.ax) might launch a bid of four Oxiana shares for every one Zinifex share.*_


----------



## legs

Big late move on OXR maybe the Xstrata rumour on ZFX was actually for Oxiana...they are soo close in speculation to each other. The same companies would be targetting both, no?


----------



## explod

legs said:


> Big late move on OXR maybe the Xstrata rumour on ZFX was actually for Oxiana...they are soo close in speculation to each other. The same companies would be targetting both, no?




With talk around the world of a copper shortage due to increasing demand from India and China I got into this yesterday. The reserve they have acquired in SA is something in my view.  

It looks to be about to break the $4.00 mark also.  Late in trade buyers have become very much larger than sellers so some considerable momentum could get up if we were to break this risistance area in the next day or so.


----------



## DB008

seems to be having a fair bit of resistance trying to get through the $4.00 barrier.....
Just needs a little push....


----------



## Ashsaege

Some new good news from Oxiana is needed to give it that little push. Has there been any updates or rumors on takeovers? ZFX?


----------



## BankRoller

Below is the only hint in recent times. Sounds quite a logical one given the location of PNA and copper and gold potential. 

http://business.smh.com.au/where-the-mood-may-take-us/20071209-1fzg.html?page=2

Smooth sailing
The Laos copper-gold miner Pan Australian could prove a tempting target for Oxiana as it continues to report good news about its Phu Kham project.

The $US241 million ($274 million) first-stage at Phu Kham is under construction and should produce its first concentrate in the coming March quarter. But Pan is already thinking bigger. Last week it obtained a $US75 million debt facility to give it the funds to order a ball mill for an expansion of the project. In a rare move in the overheated mining sector, Pan thinks it will complete the second-stage of Phu Kham six months early. Phu Kham could therefore produce 65,000 tonnes of copper a year and 60,000 ounces of gold from 2010. That would make it similar in size to Oxiana's present operations at the Sepon copper-gold project in Laos.


----------



## Nyden

OXR has managed to go up! Nearly 1% there for a second, go the OX! 

In seriousness though, wonder what's triggered that? Base metals aren't exactly soaring at the moment.

Edit: And minutes later; that was short lived


----------



## 2020hindsight

just for the record 
here's OXR for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages 
Also OXR vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either 
a) help out an divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Oxiana may spin-off its gold assets into a separate initial pubic offering as the price of bullion soars on world markets.   
The potential venture could be valued at more than a billion dollars as investors look for fresh exposures to the rising gold price. 
Oxiana has already been approached by a number of local and international investment banks on the proposal. 

http://www2.skynews.com.au/business/article.aspx?id=211126


----------



## Nyden

Uncle Festivus said:


> Oxiana may spin-off its gold assets into a separate initial pubic offering as the price of bullion soars on world markets.
> The potential venture could be valued at more than a billion dollars as investors look for fresh exposures to the rising gold price.
> Oxiana has already been approached by a number of local and international investment banks on the proposal.
> 
> http://www2.skynews.com.au/business/article.aspx?id=211126




I really hope they don't spin it off.

OXR's gold exposure is the main reason I hold them, they're basically a copper/gold producer with some side diversification.

With world markets sitting in uncertainty, I like OXR's gold exposure to at least help maintain a certain price range. Let's face it, OXR has hardly fallen as of late. 10 Days of straight losses, & we're still about even.

Has anyone crunched the numbers on any potential increase in profits with the current highs in gold? From what I recall from the last annual report, the cost to produce per oz was 300? I guess back then having the POG at 5-600, and now at nearly 1000 is a fair gain in profit. But, the US dollar might have hindered that considerably

Well, either way we'll find out on the 23rd when they issue their Q2 report. 


Hoping for an interest rate reduction as well in the US, inflation equates to a rise in commodities & precious metals


----------



## jet328

I highly, highly doubt that OH would spin off the gold side of things. He's never hidden his growth ambitions for the Ox 

The cynic in me would say this was cleverly timed (rising gold, falling ASX) to help the SP, and it worked well upto today. Oxr normally gets hit hard during corrections, doing alright this time


----------



## Mofra

Worth noting that Gold/Silver/Copper play PNA (mentioned as an Ox takeover target) has also held up relatively well recently, possibly some of that is to do with the takeover rumours.

If Owen wants to "hint" at possible moves in the future, I don't think too many shareholders will begrudge him in the current market environment.


----------



## bloggs_oz

I increated my holding in OXR yesterday at $3.39.  In my view OXR provides significant long term value at this price; considering the prediction for copper prices over the next few years are high, and that Prominent Hill should be up and running shortly.


----------



## legs

bloggs_oz said:


> I increated my holding in OXR yesterday at $3.39.  In my view OXR provides significant long term value at this price; considering the prediction for copper prices over the next few years are high, and that Prominent Hill should be up and running shortly.




Where are the predictions for copper price high for the next few years? I believe Macquarie think it may be about $2-2.50.


----------



## bloggs_oz

legs said:


> Where are the predictions for copper price high for the next few years? I believe Macquarie think it may be about $2-2.50.




Here's a quote from an article at www.minesite.com, reposted at https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=244801&postcount=31



> Down this way we’re looking at Goldman Sachs forecasts of copper at US$3.63 a pound for the next few years, roughly double the London view. Nickel is forecast to hold US$12.50 and zinc US$1.15. Other tipsters in the new world agree. Citigroup has copper at US$3 for several years to come, and nickel settling between US$11 and $US13 a pound. UBS has copper at US$3.25 a pound, easing to US$3, and zinc at US$1.50 a pound, easing to US$1.15.


----------



## Ashsaege

I quite like the OX as a long term investment. I will top up soon, though I feel it will probably keep heading south in the very near future.


----------



## explod

Ashsaege said:


> I quite like the OX as a long term investment. I will top up soon, though I feel it will probably keep heading south in the very near future.




Why do you believe it will probably keep heading south ?

In fact I think it was very oversold yesterday and found it a great opportunity to buy into a good slice for my super.

The attached chart indicates a reverse candle and the action Monday will  support an upmove by the fact that gold firmed and copper rose 3.43% overnight.

I believe this to be one of the best value emerging companies on the ASX.


----------



## explod

explod said:


> Why do you believe it will probably keep heading south ?
> 
> In fact I think it was very oversold yesterday and found it a great opportunity to buy into a good slice for my super.
> 
> The attached chart indicates a reverse candle and the action Monday will  support an upmove by the fact that gold firmed and copper rose 3.43% overnight.
> 
> I believe this to be one of the best value emerging companies on the ASX.




Very sorry for a missquote, copper rose 1.74% overnight, it was nikel that hit 3.43%...which supports my JRV


----------



## Ashsaege

explod said:


> Why do you believe it will probably keep heading south ?
> ASX.




Because most things are heading south at the moment. Even when copper or other metals rise, the market hasn't always reacted the way we thought it should lately. The Ox is currently at $3.08, after losing 17cents today.


----------



## Nyden

Sold this morning at 2.71, already saved a fair bit! 

Just wow, if this trend continues we'll see a 20% drop today on the OX

It's just sitting under the yearly lows, support to be broken, perhaps?


----------



## Nyden

Knew I should have re-bought some OXR yesterday! Instead I got stopped out :

Well done to those that bought, opening price is set to already by 2.9, if sentiment prevails could definitely erase yesterday's losses


----------



## DionM

Yeah I was so close to buying OXR yesterday ... soooo close.  

Ah well, it'll probably drop tomorrow anyway (I say with a wince, as that drop that will save me a few cents on OXR will probably wipe several tho off my portfolio ... helluva way to get buying oppies .......).


----------



## bigdog

ASX ANN today

SP  OXR   	 $2.98  	   	  +$0.40   	  +15.50%   	  	 20,562,669  shares $60,486,888  	@ 23-Jan 13:48:10

 23-01-2008 09:03 AM  	 OXR  	  Oxiana December 2007Quarterly Activities Report Presentation   	 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00805035

23-01-2008 09:02 AM 	OXR 	Oxiana Quarterly Activities Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00805034

*Highlights*
Annual production and cost forecasts met at Sepon.

Zinc production slightly below target at Golden Grove.

Prominent Hill development progresses well and remains on schedule. 

Sepon copper plant to be expanded.

Development of the Martabe gold project in Indonesia approved.


----------



## SGB

Nope, they haven’t mucked around with this today. I’ve been trying to get a sneaky short all day but unsuccessful. Gave up …. It’s been total accumulation today. Not a bad report as well. Be better placed if it can finish over $ 3.00. Still can’t believe a company of this strength to be trading under $3.00.


----------



## Nicks

Nyden said:


> Knew I should have re-bought some OXR yesterday! Instead I got stopped out :
> 
> Well done to those that bought, opening price is set to already by 2.9, if sentiment prevails could definitely erase yesterday's losses




???? confused. You actually sold out. Hindsight makes us all experts.

Ironically its those that panic sell like you did, that drag it all down and cost everyone. The difference is those that don't panic sell get it back on the inevitable rebound. A perfect case study really.


----------



## mailman

Can someone explain after closing; The volumes and codes


Time(AEST) Price Volume Value Condition Codes 
17:32:37 2.5800 454,817 1,173,427.86 SXXT 
17:07:37 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT 
16:57:17 2.9330 150,000 439,950.00 LTXT 
16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT 
16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT 
16:16:45 2.9000 7,298 21,164.20 SXXT 
16:10:41 2.9000 5,000 14,500.00  
16:10:41 2.9000 175,000 507,500.00


----------



## legs

mailman said:


> Can someone explain after closing; The volumes and codes
> 
> 
> Time(AEST) Price Volume Value Condition Codes
> 17:32:37 2.5800 454,817 1,173,427.86 SXXT
> 17:07:37 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
> 16:57:17 2.9330 150,000 439,950.00 LTXT
> 16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
> 16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
> 16:16:45 2.9000 7,298 21,164.20 SXXT
> 16:10:41 2.9000 5,000 14,500.00
> 16:10:41 2.9000 175,000 507,500.00




looks like special after market trades similar to 30th November which had no effect on SP. That day 8 x average volume was traded. Look at post #883.


----------



## mailman

So what are we guessing on OXR tommorrow. I am guessing the US market is down and we will lose another 5% tommorrow.


----------



## explod

mailman said:


> So what are we guessing on OXR tommorrow. I am guessing the US market is down and we will lose another 5% tommorrow.





I never like to guess. however.  Regardless of the downturn there is a world shortage of copper and due to the Fed acton last night I would expect the dollar to go down and the gold price to firm.   Gold has decoupled from the oil price drop and usually decouples from market drops in those circumstances too.

So OXR, well under sold still, in my view so would be very surprised to see it drop any more from here.

If you invest with plans that are based on guessing then you perhaps should look at other ways to make money IMHO


----------



## Mofra

explod said:


> Regardless of the downturn there is a world shortage of copper and due to the Fed acton last night I would expect the dollar to go down and the gold price to firm.   Gold has decoupled from the oil price drop and usually decouples from market drops in those circumstances too.



Explod, are you a fan of Jim Penner? He is an absolute guru when it comes to gold:

http://www.jsmineset.com/

US$1,650 as an estimate of the future POG, and he's been spot on numerous times in the past. In times like these, commodities offer something solid as a panacea to sentiment based pricing, and I'm looking at longs gold & oil.


----------



## explod

Mofra said:


> Explod, are you a fan of Jim Penner? He is an absolute guru when it comes to gold:
> 
> http://www.jsmineset.com/
> 
> US$1,650 as an estimate of the future POG, and he's been spot on numerous times in the past. In times like these, commodities offer something solid as a panacea to sentiment based pricing, and I'm looking at longs gold & oil.




Thanks for the link Mofra, looks like good insights and well worth following.  One cannot get too much information and I like to keep focused on what I believe to be the best to follow.   Some say diversification but I like the George Sorros way of going the full hog with the best.   Life is too short to mess around.

having said that, one must study and watch the beJesus out of the object at hand.


----------



## SGB

Found this artical @ kitco.com from Mineweb. Worth a read.
http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=44974&sn=Detail


----------



## bvbfan

Bought OXR purely on fundametals

OXR will be producing this year
135kt of zinc
80kt of copper 
125k oz of gold

even at current prices thats revenues of approximately 
Just over $1billion AUD in revenues from metals
Costs about 50c zinc, $1 copper, $700 gold = (150+175+90) ~ $460million AUD

Corporate costs harder to gauge but $250million (inc dividend of $170million)

Should still generate a profit of around $350million for 2008 and EPS of 21c

By my rough calcs.
Giving it a growth P/E around 14 which I think is low puts it on $2.94

No value for exploration upside or takeover premium either.

I guess with the Xstrata rumours that they will be acquired by Vale (formerly CVRD) much of the takeover premium would have disappeared anyway without this market correction.


Then there is the growth profile for 2009
135kt zinc
180kt copper
200k oz gold


----------



## bigdog

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=A91695A8-1871-E587-E10FDCB98EB643D3

*Oxiana Remains 2009 Story*
FN Arena News - January 24 2008
By Chris Shaw

Despite gold trading at close to US$900 per ounce gold shares have not been able to avoid the equity market fallout of recent weeks, with Oxiana (OXR) a prime example as the stock fell from around $3.80 earlier this month to below $2.80 before its latest bounce to around $3.00.

Of course the company is more than just a gold play with copper and zinc operations as well, but this diversification hasnÃ¢â‚¬™t helped of late as JP Morgan notes the December quarter production report showed weaker than expected zinc production and prices, which will impact on earnings.

ABN Amro adds in with the fact operating costs were higher than it had expected and the result is cuts to earnings forecasts among the brokers who cover the stock. These cuts range from 13-23% for the 2007 year and are of similar magnitude in coming years, with issues at Golden Grove cited as the main contributor to the reductions given the core Sepon operations continue to perform in line with expectations.

In EPS terms broker estimates now call for 2007 EPS (earnings per share) of around 20-21c or about half that of 2006, while 2008 estimates have a wider range with ABN Amro at 16.6c, UBS forecasting 24c and Macquarie at 19c. By way of comparison Thomson One Analytics shows median EPS estimates of 23c for both 2007 and 2008.

For most brokers the cuts are not enough to change views on the stock as earnings in 2007 and 2008 are not the main story. The real attraction of the shares according to Merrill Lynch is the expected ramp up in production from 2009, which it expects will result in a re-rating of the stock from the second half of this year.

Earnings estimates support such an outlook as Macquarie is forecasting EPS to jump to around 42c in 2009, ABN Amro expects 36c and Thomson One shows a median forecast of 39c.

The other point made by Citi is the valuation equation on the stock has improved a lot given the recent share price weakness, especially when the expected production increases are factored in and a longer-term view on the companyÃ¢â‚¬™s prospects is taken. As a result Citi retains its Hold rating, while Macquarie is the only broker to make a change on the back of the production report.

The broker has upgraded the shares to Outperform from Neutral on a combination of valuation and outlook grounds, as it too is attracted to the production growth profile in coming years while it notes the stock is currently at a two-year low in net present value terms.

Overall the FNArena database shows Oxiana rated as buy four times, Hold five times and Sell or Underperform once, with an average price target of $3.64, down from $3.94 prior to the production report. Thomson One shows a median price target of $3.72.

Shares in Oxiana today are slightly higher in line with a stronger overall market and as at 9.50am were up 6c at $2.96.


----------



## mailman

Here again at $3.00 though I am a bit concerned with the way the last 5 minutes took place dropping that much.

Maybe this is a bad sign for the OX any bets for tomorrows game? 

Mailman


----------



## kash

With the miners going up in the European markets Hopeful that will mean the same for OXR. I think the big drop was because of the whole market falling today


----------



## mailman

I think the Ox is in limbo land  and is doing nothing but for after 4pm when everything gets bought out. 

Maybe someone is expecting nothing more but Gold just going up.


----------



## legs

Somethings cooking look at the volume .. 56,000,000 on 18,000,000 average...huge midday volume... whats up?


----------



## SGB

legs said:


> Somethings cooking look at the volume .. 56,000,000 on 18,000,000 average...huge midday volume... whats up?




Hi legs,

Someone was putting 2 Mill orders in @ 2.84 while another was off loading. Don't know what to make of it but in total 40 Mill crossed over. Quite a interesting watch. They still have 2 Mill left in cue @ 2.84. 

SGB


----------



## mailman

London is up already look like that guy might not get his 2 M but hey all this after trade stuff is not cool- maybe end of the month stuff!


----------



## lienad

hi guys,
I'm new here but have had ox for awhile now. Seems to me the Ox has not recovered as much as some stocks after last tuesday, and some people have relised this, was trading @$3.80 just 2 weeks ago. Gold still near all time highs too.Damm.


----------



## mailman

The rumour mill tell me that some of the major shareholders have been caught out on margin calls and are selling up - believe it or not!


----------



## treefrog

legs said:


> Somethings cooking look at the volume .. 56,000,000 on 18,000,000 average...huge midday volume... whats up?




nothing untoward for mine - a good bounce off the strong 2yo support line at $2:50 is all I see - still a good entry @ $3 if you have faith in resources


----------



## legs

treefrog said:


> nothing untoward for mine - a good bounce off the strong 2yo support line at $2:50 is all I see - still a good entry @ $3 if you have faith in resources




Triple daily average is untoward in itself, i'd say. Look at the yearly chart and see how many times it did 50,000,000+ in a day. I see 2.


----------



## Tristo

Certainly a heavily traded stock - a number of times close to 50M+. I don't think we'll see it far below $3 again.


----------



## treefrog

legs said:


> Triple daily average is untoward in itself, i'd say. Look at the yearly chart and see how many times it did 50,000,000+ in a day. I see 2.




125m late nov but had little trouble falling a further 35%
vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose.


----------



## legs

treefrog said:


> 125m late nov but had little trouble falling a further 35%
> vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose.




The MAJORITY of mining stocks had LITTLE TROUBLE falling 35% too..But you didn't mention them...lolpmsl


----------



## treefrog

legs said:


> The MAJORITY of mining stocks had LITTLE TROUBLE falling 35% too..But you didn't mention them...lolpmsl




fair comment legs but you are the one pushing the volume is good barrow - what OXR did was move virtually identically with the mining index (XMJ)whereas I think your point is that after solid volume trades it should do better - but maybe I am missing something in your posts


----------



## j4mesa

legs said:


> Triple daily average is untoward in itself, i'd say. Look at the yearly chart and see how many times it did 50,000,000+ in a day. I see 2.




Wow look at that head and shoulder pattern, should have realised it earlier....
Should have shorted it.


----------



## legs

treefrog said:


> fair comment legs but you are the one pushing the volume is good barrow - what OXR did was move virtually identically with the mining index (XMJ)whereas I think your point is that after solid volume trades it should do better - but maybe I am missing something in your posts




I have said nowhere it should do anything...my only comment was that it was not a normal trading day. This could mean bad news or good.. I was asking for any information anyone had on it. I believe it was a relevent question/statement.


----------



## treefrog

legs said:


> I have said nowhere it should do anything...my only comment was that it was not a normal trading day. *This could mean bad news or good.. *I was asking for any information anyone had on it. I believe it was a relevent question/statement.




hadn't I already made this point earlier "vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose." plus the info I added that it was not unusual at a strong S/R level to see increased volume confirming that price - no offence intended when providing that information


----------



## legs

treefrog said:


> hadn't I already made this point earlier "vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose." plus the info I added that it was not unusual at a strong S/R level to see increased volume confirming that price - no offence intended when providing that information




But you can use your theorie both ways...the 50million being bought by owners must think it has lots to go up??? NO? Your theory has a hole the size of everest in it...no offence intended. Apart from the BIG 2, you wont find a better run mid tier mining company i.m.o.


----------



## oldblue

j4mesa said:


> Wow look at that head and shoulder pattern, should have realised it earlier....
> Should have shorted it.




I was planning to add to my OXR holding before I read this.
Not being strong on TA would appreciate further analysis/comment on the implications/probabilities of this pattern.


----------



## Sean K

oldblue said:


> I was planning to add to my OXR holding before I read this.
> Not being strong on TA would appreciate further analysis/comment on the implications/probabilities of this pattern.



Target's been reached oldblue, should stop around this level, which it seems to have along with the market. Lots of charts looking like this actually. 

H&S formations can probably end when the stock falls through the neckline to the distance from the neck to the top of the head. As seen here. Technically, there's nothing more or less likely to happen from here IMO, except a pause, unless you're EW and think this was a 5 wave down move to be followed by whatever...


----------



## 3MT

Does the charts take into account the very high probability that with Prominent Hill going into production Q3, the stock will be re-rated upwards?


----------



## SGB

Is the OX ready to shine?

Will need some positive news and continued gold and copper price rises to break a pretty hefty resistant area it now faces around 3.50ish - 3.60ish      ( neckline, 200DMA, 23.6% fib and possible channel Line) 
News in due shortly and hopefully its positive enough to keep buyers comming in to fill the gap @ 3.65 - 3.70.

Cheers
SGB


----------



## bigdog

Todays news
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23245698-5006368,00.html

*Oxiana touts Thai iron ore discovery*
February 20, 2008 11:46am

GOLD and copper producer Oxiana has flagged an "outstanding" iron ore discovery in Thailand after the company delivered a drop in full year earnings.

Oxiana (oxr.ASX:Quote,News) managing director Owen Hegarty said it was still  "early days'' for the discovery, in the south east of Thailand, but was upbeat about its potential.

"The workers uncovered what we believe is some outstanding iron ore potential there, and we'll be following that up as you would expect with great gusto,'' Mr Hegarty told analysts in a conference call.

Oxiana has lodged applications over the prospective area and is permitted to do basic work, but not yet allowed to conduct drilling.

Mr Hegarty said the iron ore was "mostly'' high grade hematite and located in  "good proximity to infrastructure''.

"It is good geographics, but the problem with Thailand at the moment is the political situation,'' Ord Minnett analyst Peter Arden told AAP.

"Kingsgate (Consolidated) is still trying to get its gold mining leases granted.''

Gold miner Kingsgate has been waiting for a number of years for the Thai government to grant mining leases on northern edge of its Chatree mine to allow the operation to expand.

Mr Arden said, however, that there was enormous interest in iron ore at the moment and Oxiana would likely find "some pretty willing partners'' to fund some of the development.

Oxiana today reported net profit of $305.8 million for the 12 months to December 31, a 45 per cent drop on the previous corresponding period's result of $553.17 million.

The result was short of the average analyst consensus of $320 million.

Oxiana said strong production was offset by a "stronger Australian dollar, a weaker zinc price, and a higher effective tax rate''.

The company has started paying tax at the full corporate rate in Laos where its flagship Sepon copper and gold operation is located.

Mr Hegarty was bullish on the outlook for global economic growth, despite a slowing in the United States, and the strength of prices and demand for commodities this year.

He said China was showing "powerful'' growth and said "the demand for all of the material and commodities that we are interested in continues to grow''.

The company reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $595.1 million, down from $827.18 million.

Oxiana declared a dividend of 4 cents per share, taking total dividend repayments for the year to 8 cents. Shares in the company were 13 cents higher at $3.50 by 12.47pm (AEDT).


----------



## j4mesa

This stock is pretty weird,
lower profit than last year was posted however the price of the shares goes up in a higher than usual volume.....

Good thing for holders....


----------



## oldblue

The result was about as expected - maybe a little better.

It's the company's prospects which are appealing, plus the possibility of someone liking them enough to make a bid.



Disc: Holding OXR


----------



## laurie

I'm always amazed about takeover rumors I mean if you are going to buy a company why would you wait for the price to increase to a point where a premium has to be added why not pounce when the market falls for e.g. it hit $2.57 in Jan 08 is that not the time to do a T/O 

cheers laurie


----------



## Miner

Extract from Huntleys Research (My only comment is the discovery of iron ore if really materialises it could rise   like Flinders Diamond - but otherwise the performance has been poor)
*
Oxiana Limited (OXR)*

FY07 Result 
*Recommendation: Hold 20/02/2008* 


Note: Marker indicates price of $3.44 at publication date.  

Investment Rating 
OXR is a gold, copper and zinc miner with cashflow from Sepon Copper and Sepon Gold in Laos and Golden Grove in WA. Exploration and development highlights include Prominent Hill in SA and the Golden Grove and Sepon copper and gold expansions. Management execution has impressed with the company building an impressive exploration, development and acquisition record. Near term cashflow is strong and the balance sheet robust with negligible net debt. Low cost assets are well placed to service Asia. Potentially predator or prey in global resource consolidation. *OXR is positioned for long term growth but a tolerance for commodity, development and sovereign risk is needed. A preferred miner at the right price.  * 

Result Description 
Adjusted FY07 NPAT fell 42% to $318.2m compared to FY06. Headline NPAT declined 45% to $305.8m and included a $6.3m loss from discontinued operations – Wiluna – and $6.1m of unrealised foreign exchange losses. EPS declined 46% to 19.6c with some dilution from the Agincourt purchase. 


Sales revenue was 19% lower at $1.20bn mainly due to lower realised zinc prices. An overestimation of outstanding receivables from FY06 – i.e. provisional pricing – led to a $53.3m reduction in FY07 sales revenue. 


EBITDA fell 26% to $603m on lower revenues. The margin declined from 55.4% to a still robust 50.3%.


EBIT of $502m compares to $713m in the pcp. Margins shrunk from 48.3% to 41.8%.


Net operating cashflow fell 41% to $466.7m due to reduced cash margins, increased working capital and tax payments.


The balance sheet remains robust with only $175m of net debt including the $104m convertible note deeply in the money.


The final unfranked dividend of 4c compared to 5c franked to 46% in the pcp. The full year payout of 8c was steady. 


Impact 
Adjusted NPAT fell short of our $337.4m estimate due to higher than expected ‘other expenses’ of $45.4m. Our FY08 NPAT forecast is little changed at $326.1m based on US$3.25/lb copper, US$1.33/lb zinc and A$/US$ FX of 0.935. Our FY09 NPAT forecast is substantially higher at $606.9m with Prominent Hill expected to hit its straps. Assumptions are US$3.00/lb copper, US$1.20/lb zinc and A$/US$ FX of 0.91. 


Our valuation is unchanged at $3.30 a share. Long term assumptions remain US$2.00/lb copper, US$0.90/lb zinc, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.80 and a 10% discount rate. 


Recommendation Impact (Last Updated: 20/02/2008)  
We downgrade our recommendation from Accumulate to Hold due to the recent share price recovery. OXR remains attractive with strong growth to come from Prominent Hill. The project will also solidify the company’s lower than industry average cash costs. Exploration at Prominent Hill, Martabe, Golden Grove and Sepon could excite.  
 Price data based on previous close. 
Previous Close  Market Cap  
$3.58  $5,533 (million)  
52 Week High/Low  
$4.32 - $2.53  
Sector  
Materials 


Intrinsic Valuation  
$3.30  
Note  
10% DR, US$2.00/lb Cu, US$0.90/lb Zn, US$650/oz gold 


Moat Rating  None 
Risk  High 
Company Beta  1.07 
Sector Beta  1.22 


Year 12/06A 12/07A 12/08E 12/09E 
NPAT ($m) 546.40 305.80 326.10 606.90 
EPS (c) 36.60 18.80 19.40 36.10 
% Change 553.60 -48.60 3.20 86.10 
DPS (c) 8.00 8.00 8.00 10.00 
Franking (%) 28.80 50.00 100.00 100.00 
Dividend Yield (%) 2.80 2.40 2.20 2.80 
PER 7.70 18.00 18.50 9.90 

Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates 

2 Year Price Chart 






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Event Analysis

FY07 Result FY06 FY07 % Chg 
Gold Produced (oz) 223,722 151,197 -32.4 
Copper Produced (t) 71,614 77,945 +8.8 
Zinc Produced (t) 138,817 131,954 -4.9 
Gold Cash Costs (US$/oz) 330 445 +34.8 
Copper Cash Costs (USc/lb) 73 76 +3.8 
Zinc Cash Costs (USc/lb) 43 30 -30.2 

Sales ($m) 1,477.5 1,199.3 -18.8 
EBITDA ($m) 818.6 603.1 -26.3 
EBIT ($m) 713.2 501.9 -29.6 
Pre-Tax Profit ($m) 688.8 483.7 -29.8 
Adjusted NPAT ($m) 543.2 318.2 -41.4 
Headline NPAT ($m) 553.2 305.8 -44.7 
Net Op. Cash Flow ($m) 793.0 466.7 -41.1 
EBITDA Margin (%) 55.4% 50.3% -9.2 
EBIT Margin (%) 48.3% 41.8% -13.3 
EPS (cps) 36.4 19.6 -46.2 
DPS (cps) 8.0 8.0 0.0 
Net Debt ($m) -355.1 174.7 -149.2 
Gearing (%) -54.7% 10.3% -118.8


----------



## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

OXR ... looking for a significant and positive announcement, over
the next few days, as 2 positive cycles come out to play ..... 

    22-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... positive news ... finance-related ... ???

    28-29022008 ... minor cycle

        21032008 ... 2 cycles and minor news expected

   28-31032008 ... 2 minor and positive cycles.

       08042008 ... minor and positive news              

       14042008 ... minor and positive cycle

       22042008 ... negative news expected

       29042008 ... negative spotlight on OXR

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## Miner

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> OXR ... looking for a significant and positive announcement, over
> the next few days, as 2 positive cycles come out to play .....
> 
> 22-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... positive news ... finance-related ... ???
> 
> 28-29022008 ... minor cycle
> 
> 21032008 ... 2 cycles and minor news expected
> 
> 28-31032008 ... 2 minor and positive cycles.
> 
> 08042008 ... minor and positive news
> 
> 14042008 ... minor and positive cycle
> 
> 22042008 ... negative news expected
> 
> 29042008 ... negative spotlight on OXR
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====




Dear Trader Paul

Please tell more about your prediction.
Ironically OXR has gone up (odd against market movement) even after posting much reduced profit ? 
Some brokers have rated it as neutral.

Please (once again) provide some facts about your cyclical prediction and as a moderator you know very well - how we need to support our prediction to delineate from a rumour or ramping !!!


----------



## SGB

SGB said:


> Is the OX ready to shine?
> 
> Will need some positive news and continued gold and copper price rises to break a pretty hefty resistant area it now faces around 3.50ish - 3.60ish      ( neckline, 200DMA, 23.6% fib and possible channel Line)
> News in due shortly and hopefully its positive enough to keep buyers comming in to fill the gap @ 3.65 - 3.70.
> 
> Cheers
> SGB




Humm... wasn't much hefty resistance going on, put it down to 1 day.

Hasn't the bulls rushed in the last couple of days. Volumn increasing, gap closed and 3 peeks to go to the OX is back into blue sky mining.

Did notice a $2M buyer at the death to finish OX on the high.


----------



## j4mesa

Man......
when I am shoritng this bull, it goes up like crazy....
when not, it goes like normal.

I think market just hates me that much....


----------



## PhoenixXx

j4mesa said:


> Man......
> when I am shoritng this bull, it goes up like crazy....
> when not, it goes like normal.
> 
> I think market just hates me that much....




Don't mess up with the bull, felt pity for you, but just wanna say good luck pal. As most of us here would be enjoying the gain =)


----------



## bloggs_oz

I bought some put options in OXR on Friday.  IMO this recent rally  doesn't reflect the uncertainty that's in the market at the moment.


----------



## explod

j4mesa said:


> Man......
> when I am shoritng this bull, it goes up like crazy....
> when not, it goes like normal.
> 
> I think market just hates me that much....




Anyone short OXR at the moment would have to be crazy.   Copper has just hit a record high and OXR have just taken over one of the best copper pits ever, situated in South Australia.   On top of this the gold price is in record terrotory and will continue to rise due to world debt paper problems.

And on the charts OXR is still below previous highs and if it goes through $4 in the next week, which looks likely, there will be little resistance to $5 IMHO

(Disclosure:  I have clients in OXR at the moment)


----------



## Lion King

Good to see OXR slow down a little today. Although enjoying the ride at the moment, I would like to see it hit $4 by next week before re-evaluating SP posibility. All this talk of $5 is a little bit too enthusiastic for me however I would like to see it break its high first.

More drill results to come with positive outcomes will see this go beyond $4.20 by June.

Go the big OX


----------



## 3MT

Anyone shorting this stock is playing russian roulette. When prominent hill goes into production q3, the stock will be re-rated upwards.

if you are shorting this stock you are betting that the market will correct in a big way.


----------



## legs

up 2% on a day the market fell 1.24%. It has done this a few days now, against the grain. Show's how positive the market feels about this little ripper. Topped up again when it was low $3. Cant get enough into my greedy little pockets.


----------



## bloggs_oz

Looks like oxiana was listed in the 'hot stock' section of The Age this week - http://www.theage.com.au/news/money/hot-stock/2008/02/25/1203788246761.html


----------



## Egabeava

The Ox & Zinifex have finally decided to merge, the link to the story so far http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23309277-36418,00.html


----------



## bigdog

Two ASX ANN today

3/03/2008	 	Zinifex and Oxiana Merger - Investor Presentation	
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00818772

03/03/2008	Zinifex and Oxiana to merge
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00818771


----------



## j4mesa

Hmmm....

Now that news is explaining the price action of OXiana recently...
But I guess  the merfer between them is of a huge synergy


----------



## Nyden

I don't know if this is really a good thing ... people loved OXR because it's a primary gold/copper producer (which, especially gold - are fairly hot lately)

 ... is Zinc, & now Nickel (not quite in production yet!) going to be a liability to it's shareprice? Zinc isn't exactly strong, & is set to be in surplus for a while.

Granted, it's going to be a bigger entity - with greater diversification, but; I can't help but feel that OXR has diluted it's shares for driftwood, as let's face it - Century doesn't exactly have a lifetime ahead of it.


I fear both shares might be in trouble now - shareprice wise, that is. This may stem hopes for $4+ in the OX, which of course may lead to a fall ... which will lead to a fall in ZFX which is now directly tied to the price of the OX


----------



## tradingforwealth

Yeah but zinifex is still a cheap steal for OXR since ZFX's SP got hammered not rightly so IMO.. 

Anyway we'll see what happens..

I think the surplus is already taken into account and it will start to rise again and ZFX chairman was on ABC saying that and we should see a rise, as it should reflect the amount of iron ore that is being used as zinc is used to make steel.


----------



## Nyden

Well, we'll see. So far the market hasn't responded kindly ... even though the market is down, if it was seen as _good_ news, OXR would have still risen (as ZFX did).


----------



## legs

Nyden said:


> Well, we'll see. So far the market hasn't responded kindly ... even though the market is down, if it was seen as _good_ news, OXR would have still risen (as ZFX did).




Show me a takeover slash merger where the Company that is offering shares for exchange (i.e. Oxiana's in this case) where their price has risen the day of offer.... 1.76% down on a day that total market was down 2.89% is a very good result.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Was not the Cash Balance /Cash on Hand in dollars in the ZFX bank account  
"The Prize"?

If not? then
What is this merger all about?

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> Show me a takeover slash merger where the Company that is offering shares for exchange (i.e. Oxiana's in this case) where their price has risen the day of offer.... 1.76% down on a day that total market was down 2.89% is a very good result.




Yes, but that's the problem.

This has basically quashed OXR's run-up ... there was a good chance of the OX hitting 4+ in the short term, & that probably just isn't going to happen now. I just believe it's bad timing ... market as a whole (including commodity demand; which is partially being held up by speculation / hedging) is still very uncertain, & this is just exposing OXR to further risk.

ZFX didn't fall unjustly imo either, it's profits were basically cut in half, divvies were cut in half; so it stands to reason that the SP should be as well.


----------



## legs

Nyden said:


> Yes, but that's the problem.
> 
> This has basically quashed OXR's run-up ... there was a good chance of the OX hitting 4+ in the short term, & that probably just isn't going to happen now. I just believe it's bad timing ... market as a whole (including commodity demand; which is partially being held up by speculation / hedging) is still very uncertain, & this is just exposing OXR to further risk.
> 
> ZFX didn't fall unjustly imo either, it's profits were basically cut in half, divvies were cut in half; so it stands to reason that the SP should be as well.




Run up to what? $4?? The only reason the SP has risen 30% over the last week, has to have been due to this announcement. Maybe a 10% increase was normal market movement, but not the rest. 

I assure you, you can thank this merger for getting OXR to over 3.50 recently. IMO


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> Run up to what? $4?? The only reason the SP has risen 30% over the last week, has to have been due to this announcement. Maybe a 10% increase was normal market movement, but not the rest.
> 
> I assure you, you can thank this merger for getting OXR to over 3.50 recently. IMO




I think the stellar run up in the price of Copper, & gold has been responsible for this moreso? Copper has gone up somewhere near 20% in a few weeks... from 3.1-3.2 to nearly 4; which has majorly boosted sentiment.


----------



## legs

Nyden said:


> I think the stellar run up in the price of Copper, & gold has been responsible for this moreso? Copper has gone up somewhere near 20% in a few weeks... from 3.1-3.2 to nearly 4; which has majorly boosted sentiment.




Copper on 12th Feb 3.55/lb, now 3.86/lb. Up 8.7%. 

Gold US$917 on 12 th FEB, now US980. Up 6.7%

OXR on 12th Feb 3.13, yesterday 3.97. Up 26.8%

Doesn't stand up.


----------



## Nyden

legs said:


> Copper on 12th Feb 3.55/lb, now 3.86/lb. Up 8.7%.
> 
> Gold US$917 on 12 th FEB, now US980. Up 6.7%
> 
> OXR on 12th Feb 3.13, yesterday 3.97. Up 26.8%
> 
> Doesn't stand up.




Yes, but perhaps it was making up ground as copper had risen from somewhere much closer to $3 (which was the average trading price for months in late 07) (maybe back in Jan)

I'm just not convinced. If rumors were floating around; surely ZFX would have seen greater gains .... although, ZFX did go up to 11


----------



## Nyden

& to think I nearly put in a short this morning on this  

Oh well, but gosh, nearly 9% down ... ouch, pain for those that bought in over last few days.


----------



## bloggs_oz

bloggs_oz said:


> I bought some put options in OXR on Friday.  IMO this recent rally  doesn't reflect the uncertainty that's in the market at the moment.



I closed my short position today for a profit of about 115% in 3 weeks.  I think the OXR share price now is reflecting the uncertainty in the market.  Will it drop further??? I don't know, but happy to lock in any profits in the current environment.


----------



## Nyden

bloggs_oz said:


> I closed my short position today for a profit of about 115% in 3 weeks.  I think the OXR share price now is reflecting the uncertainty in the market.  Will it drop further??? I don't know, but happy to lock in any profits in the current environment.




Heh, yes - I regret not putting in my short even on the 4th ... would have been a very tidy profit.

I think the exuberance around this stock has finally died (for the time being); & I honestly believe there's going to be a fair bit of further pain to come.

Gold, Copper - nice, & simple. Two very hot commodities, that might have seen OXR make a decent gain this year, but I believe this stock to now be held down by ZFX, & the awfully negative sentiment surrounding it, not to mention Zinc.


----------



## Lion King

Good things come to those (OXR) who wait.

My 2 cents worth says that in 12 months time the SP for this magnificent middle tier miner will be $xxxx as many profitable projects actually come on line. OH has set this up for not only for himself, but us shareholders, for a wonderful ride in the next 2-5 years. Prominent Hill will be the jewell in the crown when it comes on line and is expanded.

Go the mighty OX.


----------



## tradingforwealth

After the merge with zinifex, it will be the 3rd largest resource company is not too shabby at all in my honest opinion!


----------



## Lion King

Indonesia expects to give Oxiana mining permit

JAKARTA, April 9 (Reuters) - Indonesia expects to give Australian mining firm Oxiana Resources Ltd a permit, possibly by this month, to develop a gold mining project on Sumatra island, a senior mining official said on Wednesday.

Oxiana, which is looking to expand in Southeast Asia, has said it expects to spend about $310 million digging a new gold and silver mine in Indonesia.

"We are working on giving Oxiana a permit. I don't see any problem issuing a permit, possibly by this month," Simon Sembiring, director general of mining at the mining and energy ministry, told Reuters by telephone.

Oxiana hopes that its Martabe project in North Sumatra will yield 200,000 ounces of gold and 2 million ounces of silver a year for at least nine years from an open pit design, which will hinge on receiving mining permits.


----------



## vishalt

I hope this falls a bit so I can pick up a few shares in it for cheaper, hurry up pay day lol! 

Btw I haven't heard anything in ages about the progress of the merger with Zinifex, is Zinifex even considering it?


----------



## blehgg

vishalt said:


> I hope this falls a bit so I can pick up a few shares in it for cheaper, hurry up pay day lol!




I seriously hope it doesn't..... - seriously......

I picked up up on the rise ~ right before the merger announcement.... quite painful....

But I plan to hold these guys for long term ~ Strong support about 3.05 ~ I don't see it dropping below that ~ =="


----------



## oldblue

vishalt said:


> I hope this falls a bit so I can pick up a few shares in it for cheaper, hurry up pay day lol!
> 
> Btw I haven't heard anything in ages about the progress of the merger with Zinifex, is Zinifex even considering it?




Not due to be voted on by ZFX shareholders until " May/June 2008 ".

OXR shareholders don't get a say in the matter!


----------



## Archa

A bit quiet here so thought I'd check the ZFX site. Must have lost interest in the sp over there; a competition is in progress to see who can correctly guess the name of the merged co. Worth a look and a giggle. Thought I read somewhere that the merged co would be named Oxiana, but prob best to keep that thought here!


----------



## eddyeagle

Hot Stock from The Age recently featured OXR:

_What's new? Oxiana recently announced production figures for the March quarter, which revealed a strong performance at the Sepon and Golden Grove mines. Both operations achieved record production volumes and, although there was some evidence of cost inflation, this was more than offset by higher copper prices.

The production numbers could get even better over the next few years. A planned increase of annual copper production at Sepon will drive output to 80,000 tonnes by 2010. In 2009, Oxiana's other major project, Prominent Hill in South Australia, also comes online.

While the market has been disappointed by a number of delays that will push initial production back to the fourth quarter, 2009 is shaping up to be a watershed year for the company. Expectations remain unchanged for up to 120,000 tonnes of copper and 85,000 ounces of gold in 2009.

Oxiana's second major development is the Martabe gold and silver project in Indonesia. Construction at the site will begin once the Indonesian Government grants approval, which is expected in the coming weeks. Martabe is a huge resource estimated to contain some 6 million ounces of gold and 60 million ounces of silver. The project offers significant exploration benefits and future resource upgrades are probable in the future.

The outlook The proposed Zinifex merger will almost certainly dilute Oxiana shareholders' promising exposure to these projects. However, the merger also effectively de-risks shareholders through increased project and metal diversification. Moreover, the larger combined entity elevates the company into the major league in terms of market capitalisation. This will in our view reduce (but not eliminate) the likelihood of Oxiana being subject to a takeover offer any time soon. This is especially so given the larger resource players are somewhat preoccupied at the moment.

Price Oxiana's share-price performance has been disappointing following the merger announcement. After reaching a three-month high of $3.47, the stock fell sharply to a recent low of $2.97. We believe this is nothing more than a correction in a continuing bull trend.

Worth buying? If the company can deliver, production and earnings are set for a significant lift in 2009. In terms of value, Oxiana's consensus price-to-earnings ratio falls from more than 16 times this year to less than eight times 2009 earnings. Oxiana is cheap in our opinion and we would avoid a potential rush later this year and buy stock now.

Angus Geddes is a director of Fat Prophets Fund Management._



Also, an announcement on the Martabe project :


Oxiana has received the Construction Permit for its Martabe gold and silver project in Indonesia.
The Construction Permit, issued by the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources on behalf of the Government
of the Republic of Indonesia, is the final step in the approval process allowing construction of the Martabe project to
commence, with completion expected by the end of 2009.
The approval process for a mining project in Indonesia involves extensive liaison with, and approvals from, local
communities and provincial and national Government authorities. Oxiana is delighted to have received this permit
which meets the original approvals timeline set out by the Government of Indonesia in 2007.
The Martabe project will add significantly to Oxiana’s gold production with approximately 200,000oz gold and 2
million oz silver to be produced annually. Martabe will also be Oxiana’s first mine in Indonesia; a destination the
Company considers to be highly prospective, with exploration and development opportunities being actively


----------



## MRC & Co

I am absolutely SPEWING with this trade.  It clearly broke out of a symmetrical triangle yesterday on extremelly high volume, but my attention was elsewhere.

Volume still high today, so I bought based on a breakaway gap, definately one of my more indecisive trades!  However, I still have it fundamentally undervalued.  

Strong resistance up around $4.


----------



## uhu

MRC & Co said:


> I am absolutely SPEWING with this trade.  It clearly broke out of a symmetrical triangle yesterday on extremelly high volume, but my attention was elsewhere.
> 
> Volume still high today, so I bought based on a breakaway gap, definately one of my more indecisive trades!  However, I still have it fundamentally undervalued.
> 
> Strong resistance up around $4.





Unusual trading volume. First I didn't find anything, but I just see this article:

http://business.theage.com.au/oxiana-surges-on-takeover-speculation/20080507-2bug.html

"Oxiana, buying Zinifex to become the world's second-largest zinc producer, rose the most in seven weeks in Sydney trading amid speculation of a possible takeover offer from Xstrata."

Well. Zinifex acquired AGM. After this, OXR acquired (Ok, friendly merger, I know) Zinifex. And now, Xstrata wants to buy Oxiana? )

Well, if it is true, I hope there will be a bigger premium than what Oxiana offered for pure Zinifex shareholders.
I think 5 AUD/share would be the minimum.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, there was a notice of becoming substantial holder by Barclays yesterday and today a presentation at Macquarie conference, both of which positive for OXR.  I have been watching this one waiting for a set-up and breakout for a while now, hopefully this one runs on.  Still angry at myself for not picking up the breakout yesterday, but what's done is done.

Volume was even stronger today, so breakaway gap looks likely, need more positive price action over the next couple days.


----------



## Ashsaege

OXR share price is up to around $3.70 and ZFX hasn't risen with it.
With the merger being around 3.2 OXR shares for every ZFX, then why arn't people selling their OXR shares and buying ZFX shares now?
I suppose the merger isn't definite, and that OXR could be looking at better deals... to sell or not to sell is the question


----------



## oldblue

Yes, the Xstrata rumour seems to getting some traction and the market thinks that ZFX won't be included in the deal.
Or at least, that's how its starting to look.


----------



## Gurgler

Although we still have a wait until the murk of the merger resolves, some headlines today which may generate some price action - in contrast to the sideways movement of the past couple of months (but then again, maybe not! - MACD crossing over):

*Oxiana tips long life for SA mine
Chris Milne, Adelaide 
May 26, 2008 

OXIANA is eyeing a 40-year life for its Prominent Hill copper and goldmine being developed in South Australia's far north.

And the company is still evaluating potential acquisitions and looking beyond its present Australian-Asian sphere of operations, despite its imminent "mega-merger" with base-metals group Zinifex, says managing director Owen Hegarty.*

Source: http://business.theage.com.au/oxiana-tips-long-life-for-sa-mine-20080525-2i2e.html


----------



## livetoexcess

OXR seems very cheap at the minute @ $3.09 - i've been reading broker reports over the past month or so with stong buys calls for oxr - these reports were made when oxr was trading at substancially higher prices - possibly a good time to top up on oxr with the timing of the small fire at Sepon dragging the price down further!!!???  although production at Sepon will be suspended for up to 2 weeks, production is still supposed to meet forecast for 2008.


----------



## oldblue

Add in the fact that metal prices have been down in the last week or so ( including zinc - Zinifex ).
Not surprising that OXR sp comes under some pressure but to me they look like good buying.

Disc. Holding.


----------



## Muschu

oldblue said:


> Add in the fact that metal prices have been down in the last week or so ( including zinc - Zinifex ).
> Not surprising that OXR sp comes under some pressure but to me they look like good buying.
> 
> Disc. Holding.




I hold OXR too.  Am also rather weary of them.  Very erratic since early 2006.  They climbed before that but I am beginning to think there are much better stocks around.  It's not just the last week or so that they have been 'all over the shop'.  Why hold them in preference to. say, EQN or FLX as just 2 examples?


----------



## oldblue

Muschu said:


> I hold OXR too.  Am also rather weary of them.  Very erratic since early 2006.  They climbed before that but I am beginning to think there are much better stocks around.  It's not just the last week or so that they have been 'all over the shop'.  Why hold them in preference to. say, EQN or FLX as just 2 examples?




Hi rick.
Fully agree that OXR have been a poor performer lately but I put most of this down to the "limbo" state of the ZFX merger and the uncertainty that has been created in some quarters about the wisdom of getting deeper into zinc.
I'm more attracted to the upside when Prominent Hill comes into production towards the end of the year, plus expansion plans there and at Sepon and Martabe.
I've never researched FLX or EQN but note the following:
FLX. I wish someone had flagged this back in Jan when the sp was still below $6! ( They probably did!). At $23 odd I'm not sure that the horse hasn't bolted.
EQN. Doesn't seem to have performed particularly well sp-wise lately. At first glance seems to have a lot more Country Risk and project execution risk than OXR.
Both companies warrant some serious research and I will try to find the time for this!


----------



## Out Too Soon

Muschu said:


> I hold OXR too.  Am also rather weary of them.  Very erratic since early 2006.




Erratic is good in my book, both ZFX & OXR- 'swing like big swinging things' (I stole that from someone on this forum   ) - timing is everything & while I don't hold right now I have BUY orders in for both.


----------



## redwynne

Its the lowest its been for nearly 6 months. Will the decline continue? I hope not.

I should have picked FMG  It was a toss up between that and OXR. To make matters worse I bought in March and I paid a premium price for the shares. They have never really regained any ground since.


----------



## N1Spec

Cant keep a good stock down for long, although I must say its been a while in OXR's case.

Its clear the company is 2009 and beyond growth story, it should pick up some momentum at the end of 08.

If your bullish on the stock and you want leverage may I suggest the long dated call options OXRY7 Dec 2010.

But please DYOR, this is just my opinion.

Cheers


----------



## livetoexcess

do you think oxr might pull the pin on zfx before the forthcoming merger dealine due to forecast for zinc as opposed to copper/gold - merger is very different deal today compared to when initial deal was made.


----------



## vishalt

livetoexcess said:


> do you think oxr might pull the pin on zfx before the forthcoming merger dealine due to forecast for zinc as opposed to copper/gold - merger is very different deal today compared to when initial deal was made.



There are heaps of forecasts for the zinc price though, some say it's going to go down more some say up. 

Macquarie for instance is bullish.

I say it'll be up in the longer-term as its a metal the world does need fundamentally.

I don't think Oxr will pull the plug but I'm not sure how its shareholders will feel. 

As an owner of Mighty Ox shares I'm pretty happy with the merger.


----------



## oldblue

Given the enthusiasm with which both companies announced the merger, and statements thereafter, I don't see anyone in the OXR camp looking to pull the pin at this stage. I think they'll be looking through the immediate price and concentrating on the long term plan. Besides, there's all that lovely ZFX cash to spend!


----------



## Sean K

If technical support has any merit, then OXR should hold somewhere between these key support levels. Been pretty disappointing for 2 years. Needs to hold around here or looking at long term down trend. Breaking back through $3.00 is very important short term IMO.


----------



## dj_420

kennas said:


> If technical support has any merit, then OXR should hold somewhere between these key support levels. Been pretty disappointing for 2 years. Needs to hold around here or looking at long term down trend. Breaking back through $3.00 is very important short term IMO.




I agree there Kennas, also not impressed with the new name, I would have preferred if they kept Oxiana, of Oxifex, or even Zinox!!! Oz Minerals sounds a little boganish.

Anyway I suppose that is not a fundamental factor just a personal gripe 

I dont know how long that name change would have taken to decide...


----------



## vishalt

I thought it was okay, I say it "O" "Z" Minerals to highlight the Oxiana/Zinifex Minerals. 

Rather than Oz Bogan Minerals Beeroporation.

Did you guys see the new website? 

www.oxianaandzinifex.com - the video is pretty cool and funny hhahaha Owen


----------



## LeeTV

They can name it BO if they like as long as the share price increases I'm happy. Can't see any reason why it won't either


----------



## grazzle

I agree with Lee - BoganOxifexstrata has a nice ring to it -especially at an inflated SP eh?   It has been a long long wait for this mob to get it together.


----------



## jamesart

Could anyone please explain the implications of the ZFX/OXR merger?

Will both ZFX and OXR shares become redundant and new OZ shares issued?

Have never been in this position before and would appreciate it if anyone could please educate me.

I currently have $3.00 August on OXR, so am concerned as to what may happen. 

Thanks.


----------



## legs

jamesart said:


> Could anyone please explain the implications of the ZFX/OXR merger?
> 
> Will both ZFX and OXR shares become redundant and new OZ shares issued?
> 
> Have never been in this position before and would appreciate it if anyone could please educate me.
> 
> I currently have $3.00 August on OXR, so am concerned as to what may happen.
> 
> Thanks.




look this website up, it explains it all:

http://www.oxianaandzinifex.com/

Oz minerals is the new name and new code OZL but they are using OXR valuation for the new price.


----------



## YELNATS

vishalt said:


> As an owner of Mighty Ox shares I'm pretty happy with the merger.




As an owner of both ZFX and OXR I'm hoping that this "merger of equals" will equal an overall better share price. 

The new name "OZ" for an Aussie company?, well it was predictable wasn't it?


----------



## legs

YELNATS said:


> As an owner of both ZFX and OXR I'm hoping that this "merger of equals" will equal an overall better share price.
> 
> The new name "OZ" for an Aussie company?, well it was predictable wasn't it?




There is no reference to it being OZ because it's an aussie company, it's the "O" from Oxiana and "Z" from Zinifex.                           
"O(h)" "Z(ee)" Minerals...Not OZ.


----------



## Ashsaege

legs said:


> There is no reference to it being OZ because it's an aussie company, it's the "O" from Oxiana and "Z" from Zinifex.
> "O(h)" "Z(ee)" Minerals...Not OZ.




O(h) Z(ee) sounds alot like 'Aussie'!

I hold both OXR and ZFX, and id prefer if they used the name Oxiana. I found the new OZ Minerals video amusing


----------



## bvbfan

Posted this elsewhere

Urge OXR holders to think about this

Having a look at the details of the EGM to approve the name and other business. I'm seriously considering voting against the package given to Owen. 
Sure he has done a great job but to sell out now and be given $9million I think shafts OXR holders again.

I'd be happy to approve the same package as a 9-10million option package exerciseable at 1c with exercise price of $7-8 in 2010 or so which is where OXR would have been in once the growth pipeline was brought on stream for Prominent Hill and Martabe + the Sepon expansion.

What really ****s me more than any other deal is that we didn't get a vote. I'm sure the deal wouldn't be approved by Oxiana holders, well certainly not at 50:50 to ZFX.

Looking at the performance of other zinc shares, they have dropped 30% or so. ZFX would bein the $7 range now and OXR probably still $3.25-$3.50 which probably would have made a 2.5 bid possible and given OXR holders roughly 55-60% of the new company.

Anyway, if Owen believes so much in this deal then he shouldn't have a problem having to wait like the rest of us for payment that he has now forced on us other holders.
I think it's a bit rich for him to pocket this for his retirement when this was going to provide retirement funds for quite a few people who I believe bought in the 10-20c area with that idea.

For the 1st time I'm seriously considering selling the lot of OXR I have remaining and putting the funds into a few other plays which I think will probably return 200-500% by the time OXR even gets to $6 in 2010 if that.

Be interested to see what other holders think of trying to block the retirement package given out. At least block it in its current form.

As I said I don't have a problem if Owen is forced to wait out like the rest of us are being made.


----------



## vegemite

Somewhere I read that it would cost OXR $50 million to pull out of the merger. I'd much rather see them spend this money than the $10 million or so on OH's payout. A fantastic investment opportunity - for $40 million they would be able to buy the half of OXR they have gifted away


----------



## The Gman

Me, I'm very disappointed (but not surprised) about the market's reaction in the short term but very happy to have the former nickel holdings of Allegiance back in my portfolio. Makes me glad I spent the money I made on selling AGM on more Oxiana.


----------



## Mofra

bvbfan said:


> I'd be happy to approve the same package as a 9-10million option package exerciseable at 1c with exercise price of $7-8 in 2010 or so which is where OXR would have been in once the growth pipeline was brought on stream for Prominent Hill and Martabe + the Sepon expansion.



Australian miners have made a habit of selling quickly, to offers which don't take into accoutn future value, simply because executives have a giant golden carrot dangled in front of them. WMC Resources looks like a masisve bargain to BHP for example.

Disc: Yes, I'm still bitter at MIM being sold for peanuts


----------



## Go Nuke

> I agree with Lee - BoganOxifexstrata has a nice ring to it -especially at an inflated SP eh? It has been a long long wait for this mob to get it together.




ROFL.

What about *BoganFX*  It has a F from Zinifex and and X from Oxiana

Yeah i think they could have come up with something better. but I suppose if your a shareholder you wont really care as long as your making money right?


----------



## eddyeagle

OXR hammered today - do people think that current levels of around $2.50 are worthy of a top up?

From a technical perspective $2.50 has been a solid resistance point in the past.


----------



## oldblue

eddyeagle said:


> OXR hammered today - do people think that current levels of around $2.50 are worthy of a top up?
> 
> From a technical perspective $2.50 has been a solid resistance point in the past.




Not too sure how relevant past resistance/support levels are now. It's a different company from Monday.
What do the techies think?


----------



## explod

eddyeagle said:


> OXR hammered today - do people think that current levels of around $2.50 are worthy of a top up?
> 
> From a technical perspective $2.50 has been a solid resistance point in the past.




A look at the 5 year chart tells me that at $2.50 it is close to dropping off to next level at $2 which is not as strong as the old $2.60 area.  So further stock market shocks may see it tumble further.   I know it is hard to fathom for a company with such fantastic reserves, but for me the global picture is dominant at the moment. 

This is one of my very favourites on my Watcher.   I am looking for a bottom entry (copper for example will be the next black gold. alternate electric power, gold and other great metals) but we are not there yet IMHO.


----------



## golfmos123

Yes OXR smashed on Friday.  I wonder whether a lot of that was people flogging OXR and buying back into ZFX to take advantage of the conversion factor.  Monday might be interesting with the Dow crushed again...another decent fall and OXR would come up on a number of screens I'd guess???


----------



## LeeTV

golfmos123 said:


> Yes OXR smashed on Friday.  I wonder whether a lot of that was people flogging OXR and buying back into ZFX to take advantage of the conversion factor.  Monday might be interesting with the Dow crushed again...another decent fall and OXR would come up on a number of screens I'd guess???



ZFX were smashed friday too.

ZFX -5.960%

OXR -6.590%

Be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.

What makes you say that about OXR on Monday should the DOW slide?


----------



## mrbrisbane

S o what is happening? The OXR and ZFX prices are now pretty much on parity and both are still falling  - Is it stop losses kicking in or is there some major problem ?

I like them both and just want to put my ear to the rail b4 I buy up some more.


----------



## SGB

Here is a chart to confirm explodes post.

The thing is now is how you want to interpret what value is and what cheap is. Both do not discriminate in this environment.

Are you in for the long haul or just there to make a quick buck?

The reason I bring this up is up because I have seen so many Small Cap energy stocks (PES, MPO to name a couple) that have gone through the roof at the moment because of the energy sector.  Now are they worth (share price) the same amount as OXR. 

Look at what this merger brings to the table. Crunch the numbers and you can see if there is a comparison with Mark Cap, projects, cash in bank to some of these energy plays you will find that OXR/ZFX is way in front.

So it all comes back to the first question, what do you interpret value is... and make no mistake it is in a downward trend and could head to the 2.10 bump on the left.

SGB


----------



## golfmos123

LeeTV said:


> ZFX were smashed friday too.
> 
> ZFX -5.960%
> 
> OXR -6.590%
> 
> Be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.
> 
> What makes you say that about OXR on Monday should the DOW slide?





I guess what I was saying (without saying) is that if our market follows the DOW sharply down on Monday, then OXR is going to appear as either a screaming sell as it retreats towards $2, or is a screaming buy as it has been oversold.

This is precisely what SGB has indicated in his post with the chart.

I hold a fair wad of OXR bought just a couple of weeks ago.  I figured it was an each way bet -long term value as well as prospect of a short term pop in price (was obviously wrong about that one on a 2 wk timescale at least!!).


----------



## LeeTV

OXR up 3.53% today, good to see. It will be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks/months.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yes, good post once again SGB.

I too, value OXR much higher than it currently is, as far as some basic fundamentals.  Projected earnings, risk, return and it's current balance sheet.

That being said, it is close to breaking that strong support level and would run further if it was to do so.  However, I think the high volume coming in over the last several days signifies some accumulation for me.  Not to mention, it has been on such a strong downtrend lately (without rest), a bounce is more than likely.  

Definately one of the few I would go long despite the larger trend.  Low risk entry also, with support just below, which could be used for the stop.  Todays bar looked promising.  Further weakness in the US could be the tipping point down, but any strength, could see a strong bounce IMO.  

Cheers


----------



## Miner

_You may have seen in the press recently, Zinifex and Oxiana’s intent to merge and create an exciting new force in the Australian mid-tier resources industry.  This process has been completed, and we write to introduce you to the third largest diversified minerals company on the ASX – OZ Minerals. 

OZ Minerals is now Australia’s third largest diversified mining company and is the world’s second largest producer of zinc as well as a substantial producer of copper, lead, gold and silver.  With the scale and capabilities of this merged enterprise, we now have an historic opportunity to fulfil our vision of becoming a major minerals company. From day one OZ Minerals is ready for action and poised for growth. 

The company currently has five mining operations located in Australia and Asia, three new mining projects in development and a large portfolio of exploration projects throughout Australia, Asia and North America. OZ Minerals also has a strong financial position enabling it to fund its growth ambitions through development of new projects and through potential acquisitions

OZ Minerals is a company focused on values – forging strong partnerships with host communities, employees, shareholders, contractors and suppliers – with a focus on adding value to all stakeholders.

Why are we contacting your directly about OZ Minerals?

*Please note that until July 21 both Oxiana and Zinifex internet sites *will still be visible and accessible, and all vacant roles will continue to be advertised there (and in the press as required).  An interim merged company website will also exist as of June 23, and we invite you to access www.oxianaandzinifex.com to learn more about the merged organisation’s identity and intent. 

*The formal launch of the OX Minerals will July 21,*"_

Folks a birth of the new organisaton after merger of ZFX and OXR
I got this message  from OXR 

CHeers


----------



## Gurgler

Is it just me or is there a sense of buoyancy post 20 June. It's almost as if the sandbag has been jettisoned from the balloon and now it's up up and away! (mind you, we are only talking 2 days)

May the flight continue!


----------



## The Mint Man

I got in on this one friday arvo, just couldn't help it. I have watched this one for a fair while so when I saw that it had been getting smashed friday I decided to get in.... Just in time mind you, 3:59pm

I think this one could go for a bit of a run now however $3 may provide a resistance, if it gets past that who knows

Cheers


----------



## Mofra

Gurgler said:


> Is it just me or is there a sense of buoyancy post 20 June. It's almost as if the sandbag has been jettisoned from the balloon and now it's up up and away! (mind you, we are only talking 2 days)



Seeing the new Ox up on on overnight copper low with the ~$2.50 support intact certainly appears bullish especially with the top of the 20/06 candle taken out. 
Have to wonder how much the rise over the past two days is the fundies re-adjusting their positions post-consolidation.


----------



## dj_420

I actually liked OXR more before this merger, I think the zinc ZFX load will drag the stock down. The revenue will now comprise of 60% zinc sales which are looking very dismal on LME.

I suppose the upside is the fact that diversification helps to survive general industry downturns. But having said that I think it will take some time for the value of ZFX to shine through.


----------



## MRC & Co

dj_420 said:


> I actually liked OXR more before this merger




I agree.  I like OXR a lot more than ZFX.  Zinc is pitiful at the moment, and OXR is in a great place at the moment.  I think the merger is definatley a reason the SP has suffered.

Has now bounced off support as expected, looks promising for the short-term at least.


----------



## SGB

MRC & Co said:


> I agree.  I like OXR a lot more than ZFX.  Zinc is pitiful at the moment, and OXR is in a great place at the moment.  I think the merger is definatley a reason the SP has suffered.
> 
> Has now bounced off support as expected, looks promising for the short-term at least.




But you know what I cant understand MRC is that remember last year when the rumours were around about the merger and the sp would sky rocket.
One little bit of a hint of a merger and bang ...up 20c, and i think there was one time it went up 40c.

As soon as the truth come out that they did merge the sp nose dived. Just thought it was a bit odd.

SGB


----------



## MRC & Co

ha ha, good point SGB, as is the nature of the market!  Such a wonderful place to be!  

Can't say I was following OXR last year too closely (so no idea when the merger rumours sent up the SP), but perhaps it was because the market was _more_ robust then!  Right now, scepticism has definatley creeped in, and ZFX is now being viewed as a dog due to the price of zinc.  Great cash, but without a rise in the zinc SP, how much is it really worth?  The marvelous nature of complex systems!  Just another reason I try and keep it as simple as I can!


----------



## LeeTV

Anyone with any idea on dividend yield estimates on the merged company 

ZFX have always had a good yield, avg for the last 12mths was 12.4% compared to OXR which was 3.0%


----------



## SGB

SGB said:


> But you know what I cant understand MRC is that remember last year when the rumours were around about the merger and the sp would sky rocket.
> One little bit of a hint of a merger and bang ...up 20c, and i think there was one time it went up 40c.
> 
> As soon as the truth come out that they did merge the sp nose dived. Just thought it was a bit odd.
> 
> SGB




I was pondering again about this notion while I lay in bed ( I know, sounds a bit sad) but I come to the conclusion that there must be some element of truth in that old saying;
"Buy the rumour, Sell the fact"

SGB


----------



## MRC & Co

ha ha ha, don't worry, some of my best moments come to me while I lie pondering in bed!  

But agreed, just another explanation and just another reason I try and avoid speculation.


----------



## eddyeagle

Fat Prophets giving OXR a plug today in their free email. 

I topped up at the end of the day @ $2.56. There were a lot of buyers at that level.


----------



## Mofra

MRC & Co said:


> Can't say I was following OXR last year too closely (so no idea when the merger rumours sent up the SP), but perhaps it was because the market was _more_ robust then!  Right now, scepticism has definatley creeped in, and ZFX is now being viewed as a dog due to the price of zinc.  Great cash, but without a rise in the zinc SP, how much is it really worth?  The marvelous nature of complex systems!  Just another reason I try and keep it as simple as I can!



Pertinent article (in terms of the ST softness in zinc)
"Sinking zinc still in the pink long term"


Date: 25/6/2008 
Author: Tim Boreham 
Source: The Australian
 Zinc prices have taken an unexpected downturn in mid-2008 compared to the otherkey ingredients in steel making. Despite China's booming steel trade, zincmining companies such as Perilya, CBH Resources and Zinifex are struggling tocome to terms with the metal's drop in price from 2006 highs. Othersteel-making ingredients such as iron ore, coking coal and manganese haveexperienced unprecedented price growth, and many expected zinc to follow suit.Some mining companies are diluting their reliance on zinc in response to theslump. Analysts believe long-term prospects for a recovery in zinc prices aregood, as there is little new supply coming onto the market and demand for steelwill only grow from developing countries


----------



## The Mint Man

Mofra said:


> Pertinent article (in terms of the ST softness in zinc)
> "Sinking zinc still in the pink long term"
> 
> 
> Date: 25/6/2008
> Author: Tim Boreham
> Source: The Australian
> Some mining companies are diluting their reliance on zinc in response to the slump.



Diluting their reliance on zinc, well that rings a bell dosn't it! (re OXR/ZFX merger) haha
Cheers:


----------



## bvbfan

Posted this elsewhere...

Having a look at the details of the EGM to approve the name and other business. I'm seriously considering voting against the package given to Owen. 
Sure he has done a great job but to sell out now and be given $9million I think shafts OXR holders again.

I'd be happy to approve the same package as a 9-10million option package exerciseable at 1c with exercise price of $8 in 2010 or so which is where OXR would have been in once the growth pipeline was brought on stream for Prominent Hill and Martabe + the Sepon expansion.

What really ****s me more than any other deal is that we didn't get a vote. I'm sure the deal wouldn't be approved.

If Owen believes so much in this deal then he shouldn't have a problem having to wait like the rest of us for payment that he has no forced on us.

For the 1st time I'm seriously considering selling the lot of OXR I have remaining and putting the funds into a few other plays which I think will probably return 200-500% by the time OXR even gets to $6.

Be interested to see what other holders think of trying to block the retirement package given out.

Vote no to resolution 4 at least,  if not all others


----------



## bvbfan

Dividend will probably be about 10c a year.

If OXR wants to keep holders who got shafted happy they better be paying a dividend around 12-15c a year which I don't see happening since that would be about $369million to $450million.

ZFX will probably only make about $400million and OXR $450-500million


----------



## oldblue

bvbfan said:


> Dividend will probably be about 10c a year.
> 
> If OXR wants to keep holders who got shafted happy they better be paying a dividend around 12-15c a year which I don't see happening since that would be about $369million to $450million.
> 
> ZFX will probably only make about $400million and OXR $450-500million





Yes, I see that Citi forecast a dividend of 10cps for FY08.
And they have upgraded their recommendation from Hold to Buy. Not that we should put too much weight on brokers' recommendations!


----------



## explod

There is not a lot of zinc in production on a world scale and due to depressed prices little happening, so shortages in my view will show up in a year or two.  I am very bullish long term for the new OZ Co and I think the link up with Zinnefex long term is underestimated for logistical and general economy of scale reasons.   Kitco Base Metals site has an article of interest, following is the preamble:



> The power of zinc: Startup CEO talks zinc-based fuel cells
> 
> Washington (Platts)--26Jun2008
> Robust supply and softer demand has transformed zinc from a hot to a
> lukewarm commodity, but new technology that would make zinc the power running
> cell phones and laptops -- and a significant distance down the road -- a fuel
> source in hybrid cars, could help launch the base metal's comeback.
> 
> Power Air Corp., based in Livermore, California, announced this week it
> had entered into a technology-sharing deal with Hawthorne, New Jersey-based
> eVionyx to make zinc-based battery units called Powerpacks, that will give
> extended-run capability to increasingly sophisticated -- and power-hungry --
> mobile electronic devices like Blackberrys, MP3 players, and global
> positioning systems.
> 
> "People don't know that zinc is a potential energy source," Power Air
> President and CEO Donald Ceci, told Platts. "Eventually, if the world was
> running on zinc, you'd have sustainable fuel." But, he added, "There's a lot
> of development work to be done."
> 
> The technology is known as the zinc-air fuel cell, which gets its name
> from the underlying chemical reaction that occurs when zinc pellets are mixed
> with oxygen from the air, causing zinc oxidation. Lithium is the material
> currently used in the batteries powering mobile electronic devices, but
> deposits of the commodity are more scattered and scarce than zinc, and
> increasingly pricey in the face of insatiable demand for the next big thing in
> electronics, Ceci said.
> 
> "There's not that much lithium; you get it from salt lakes on the tops of
> mountains in Chile and China." While those are not the only regions where the
> material is found, he said, "There's certainly not enough to run the world's
> hybrid electric vehicles." What's more, Ceci added, "Lithium is getting more
> and more expensive because all the portable devices are running on lithium. So
> zinc is developing into the next-generation alternative to lithium. We're
> pioneering that to an extent."
> 
> Although the current crop of hybrid vehicles have fuel cells based on
> lithium or hydrogen, the zinc-air fuel cell is safer and better for the
> environment, he said. "The nice thing about zinc is, it's nonflammable and
> nonexplosive and you end up with zinc oxide as a byproduct, which is totally
> recyclable. You don't burn anything up into the atmosphere [so] there's no
> emissions." Also, "of all the stable elements, zinc has the highest energy
> density, so it is a very good power source," Ceci said.
> 
> These qualities could raise the base metal's profile as a fuel source and
> drive up its price on the order of metallurgic coal -- the coal used to make
> steel -- the price of which has soared on rocketing steel demand from China.
> "Broadly speaking, I think this is a trend that going to grow not only in
> North America and Europe, but around the world," Bart Melek, a commodities
> analyst with BMO Capital Markets, told Platts. "Certainly with oil at
> $135-138/barrel, we're going have to use other ways [to get power]."


----------



## rederob

Copper will be the flagship metal of OZ in 2008 and its price has been strong for several years.
Copper inventories have continued to decline in calendar 2008.
Analysts tipped copper inventories to move into balance or oversupply this year.  So far they are off the mark. Moreover, industrial action and mine supply stagnation in all but African nations is underpinning the copper price.
Last point: China is where the action is in copper, and Chinese inventories have declined in recent months - a bullish sign.


----------



## vishalt

Many merged companies will have a period of consolidation and nervousness from shareholders. Even when BHP merged Billiton or Rio Tinto and Alcan, it'll take time but we know that: 

Both businesses are profitable
They have long-life, low-cost mines
Projects running past 2011
Good cashflows
Experienced management - I mean, BHP/Xtrata had to fight a lot to get a hold of WMC because of Michelmore and Owen Hegarty IS at the company lets not forget. 

I'm confident about the future of this business!


----------



## Mofra

A helpful site that has an interesting article on both zinc & copper, certainly pertinent to the interests of the New Ox holders:

http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/08ac_june/


----------



## explod

We have gold strengthening and copper is now confirmed over $4 a pound.  This is significant if it holds as there was strong resistance at this level going right back to May of 06.  Of course its precipitated by soverieng problems, but they could in fact get much worse.

Market sentiment will in my view pound OXR down further yet.  This is going to be one of the great opportunities down the track.   The legacy of heggarty, bring it on.


----------



## dan-o

how low will this one go? i want to buy in but sentiment could make it a steal... anyone want to hazard a guess?


----------



## SGB

dan-o said:


> how low will this one go? i want to buy in but sentiment could make it a steal... anyone want to hazard a guess?




Don't hold me to it,

but based on the fundamentals, the overly sold conditions, and the huge support that will be there at the left hand bump on the chart, I will say $2.00-$2.10. 

And ifso, IMO, will be at absolute bagain prices at these levels.
Dont personally own any *yet* but will be going hard if it does get to these levels. A once in a life time opportunity with the current trend in gold and copper prices.

SGB


----------



## oldblue

dan-o said:


> how low will this one go? i want to buy in but sentiment could make it a steal... anyone want to hazard a guess?





Not a good idea to "guess", IMHO.
I'm waiting for an upturn in the trend which given the state of the markets may take a while.
Patience needed!


----------



## SGB

oldblue said:


> Not a good idea to "guess", IMHO.
> I'm waiting for an upturn in the trend which given the state of the markets may take a while.
> Patience needed!




Maybe old blue .. Just politley answering the question that was asked IMHO!
This is just my opinion.


----------



## dan-o

cheers guys, oxy is one im watching with interest. a lot of value starting to present itself so im biding my time (and next pay check)
at $2 a 5% yield is reasonable too! (assuming 10c dividend)


----------



## eddyeagle

Anything could happen in this market but $2.10 looks good to me as a resistance point from the chart. 

With gold at $940 and copper at $4.06, for those willing to be patient, OXR looks an absolute bargain IMO!


----------



## uptonryan

Apparenlty Oxiana (OZ-Minerals) is going to go gang busters tomorrow as a bounce from all this selling.

As far as I can see most of the selling is due to Barclay's Bank in Scotland. Barclay's is a major instituional investor in Oxiana. Recently Barclay's determined that coupling with the US market through the credit crunch was a bad idea and decided to divest itself of stock so that it only holds 20% gold / silver as a hedge against any rapid stock market crash. This meant a lot of selling of it's shares which it did at relatively low prices.

It doesn't help that the price of zinc is fairly low, but the newly merged company OZ-Minerals does not just sell zinc. It also has copper at a robust price and gold. One might say that owning OZ-Minerals is almost as good as a hedge as gold is what OZ-Minerals they produces.

Everyone agrees China and India have been growing strongly and despite recent worries this growth is likely to continue. Less than 1% of people in china and india own cars. Those large developing countries are going to require large amounts of cars as their populations become more wealthy. The price of oil is a major barrier to the fullfillment of that dream. The only likely outcome is the green car. The green car uses fuel cells. Fuel cells need zinc.

Zinc is also a major requirement, almost as relevant as iron ore is to making steel. As china and india grow the rise in iron ore price should eventually be reflected in zinc prices.

July is the tax month. Traditionally people sell to pay taxes and this impacts the market. If too many people sell then margin loans are called in and prices can spiral downwards. This could explain the sharp decline.

There has also been some bad luck affecting production with a fire at apache energy effecting gas supplies in western australia to OZ-minerals. Another fire affected copper production in south africa. These problems are temporary and have largely been corrected. 

Investors may have the concern that the high price of oil and gas may impact on the cost side of OZ-Minerals. It all depends on how permanent the price rise is. Most of the rise in oil is due to speculation artifically inflating the price. It is true that oil is limited but there are also huge amounts of untapped reserves. Australia recently incresed it's oceanic boarders opening up many new potential oil fields. Some say a new field as big as the North West shelf could be found. Similarly the US has a known oil field in alaska which is larger than the oil field in the middle east! If McCain wins the US election he has promised to open up alaska to oil production. Increased prices increase supply and we may find next year to have too much oil!

It is also be argued that OZ-Minerals may not require large amounts of oil to produce Copper, Zinc and Gold. Most of energy requirement are gas and Western Australia has plenty of Gas supplies. When the plants are working of course. 

In addition a firm called Xstrata may be considering buying OZ-Minerals. Historically newly merged companies take time to integrate and shore up under new leader ship and that can drive down the share price. If Xstrata, China or even RIO/BHP decide to buy then this could rapidly increase the share price.

A strategy that buying companies follow is to short a prospective companies stock. This artifically drives the shareprice down and makes it easier for the buying company to purchase. If you look at OZ-Minerals the amount of stock shorted is as high as 1.6%

Looking at the fundamentals of OZ-Minerals I can see excellent value. potentially the stock may double in the short term and go as high as $20 in the long term. Easy Money.

Also I heard a rumour. Apparently the company that built the channel tunnel between England and France may be building a subsea tunnel between New York and London. 

The amount of stainless steel required would be equivalent to 1 year of the worlds production. A very large amount.

As you know zinc as well as Iron Ore is a major requirement for stainless steel production.

OZ-Metals is going to jump.


Ryan Upton


----------



## yawomanjas

Thanks for the post Ryan..interesting read...does anyone know the fwd PE 2009 /2010 for Oz Minerals...the combined entity?


----------



## bloggs_oz

uptonryan said:


> Also I heard a rumour. Apparently the company that built the channel tunnel between England and France may be building a subsea tunnel between New York and London.




It sounds like you're really onto something with that rumor.  There are approx 5561km between London and New York.  Apparently there are massive lines of people in new york just waiting for such a tunnel to open.  Instead of flying across in 6 hours, they can drive across in just 55 hours (assuming they're driving at 100km p/h non-stop).  Just imagine, you could do the return trip in only 4.6 days!  And the views along the way should be amazing!


----------



## LeeTV

bloggs_oz said:


> It sounds like you're really onto something with that rumor.  There are approx 5561km between London and New York.  Apparently there are massive lines of people in new york just waiting for such a tunnel to open.  Instead of flying across in 6 hours, they can drive across in just 55 hours (assuming they're driving at 100km p/h non-stop).  Just imagine, you could do the return trip in only 4.6 days!  And the views along the way should be amazing!



I heard a rumour a company is going to build zinc plated surfboards :bowser:

Another bit of good news for OXR and a bit more cash in their coffers...

*Oxiana finds partner for Indo expansion*
_03/07/2008 - Nicholas Clydsdale_ 


> Oxiana Limited (OXR) said it would sell up to 25% of its Martabe gold project in Indonesia’s Sumatra to PT Antam Tbk after signing an agreement to jointly explore and develop mineral opportunities. The company said the agreement represented an important step in Oxiana’s strategy in developing a strong presence in the region.
> 
> Oxiana said under the agreement, both companies would cooperate in the exploration, development and operation of precious or base metal and bulk commodity projects in Indonesia.
> 
> The company said PT Antam would initially acquire a 10% stake in Martabe for US$66.5 million ($69.16 million), but will have an option for an extra 15%.
> 
> This values the Martabe project at US$310 million ($322.41 million), which is expected to produce about 200,000 ounces of gold and two million ounces of silver over a nine year life from 2009.
> 
> PT Antam will also contribute its proportionate share of the development costs for the Martabe project following transfer of the interest.


----------



## uptonryan

lol, I guess I did sound a bit crazy. I shouldn't have presented it in such a silly way. 

I'm not saying they are going to build a sub-sea tunnel tomorrow. But they are building a tunnel and it's going to require huge amounts of metal. Actually it's high speed trains. No cars.

Wheather OZ-metals can capitalise on this is another story. That's not the only project in the works, all I'm trying to illustrate is that demand is strong for that business and likely to continue.

The key question is how close is the coupling between the US credit crunch and such projects. 

The short sellers may be around but I predict a bounce. Money has been swapping between the banks and miners lately and yesterday was the turn on the banks. Today there may well be a reversal.

I got that one wrong about the stainless steel. No zinc in stainles steel. OZ-Minerals does sell nickel. Zinc is mainly used in galvanizing to protect against rust. But the fact remains, large projects in the works, demand is strong, fundamentals are good. 

I guess I presented myself in quite a silly way. Still if you can't attack the logic you attack the person. I still can't see where the flawed reasoning is. Warren Buffet suggests value investing is the most profitable, where the investor buys the fundamentals and then waits for the market to correct. As far as I can see it OZ-Minerals has good fundamentals and shall continue to do so. Eventually the market will recognise this. The negative Hype can't last with such a high Earnings per Share and the price will rise.

Ryan Upton


----------



## Rafa

Ryan, whilst your enthusiasm is great to see.... 20 dollar price targets, tunnels from new york to london, etc are all rather far fetched... (tho I won't be complaining, as I am a long long term holder in the oX and still hold a large amount, its certainly never come into my thinking...)...

and as for what is a fair price....  the market decides the price of a share... in good econmic times, it might meet its true value... but in hard economic times, with the absence of cheap credit and high interest rates... PE ratio's can be serverely beaten down.

I am happy to continue to hold the OX... good pipeline of works, solid revenue stream, plenty of cash...


----------



## Speewha

Ryan,  Thanks for your two posts I enjoyed reading them. If you base your investments plan on your last sentence in the second post (Mr Buffets advice) long term you won’t have to much to worry about. 

Don’t place to much credence on blue sky dream boat rumours. I am 55 and I have been reading about that tunnel since I was in my twenties. 

I am in Melbourne and have this bridge for sale.....


----------



## uptonryan

There is a theory that high metal production requires lots of energy. High oil prices impact on the cost of this production and therefore drive commodities companies prices down.

Oil is very high at the moment but we have plenty of cheap gas in Australia which is where most of the energy production comes from. High Global oil prices may not directly effect plant production.

Similarly, I believe high oil prices are temporary high. The fundamentals do not support high oil prices. There is plenty of oil coming out of the middle east and plenty of new oil fields coming online or available. The main reason they are so high is because of speculators who have artificially driven the oil price up. 

The main reason the speculators are piling into oil is because they are betting that Bush is going to invade Iran. Iran needs to sell us oil far more than we need to buy it. It’s in Iran’s interests to keep that oil production stable. George Bush is a mad war dog but he only has 7/6 or so months left in office. For him to attack Iran would be sheer lunacy and I believe very unlikely. Eventually people will realise that the US is not going to attack Iran and the oil price will fall.

Traditionally people invest in commodities when the markets are boring. If there is nothing exciting going on then metals tend to rise. Lately we have had some excitement with the credit crises etc but I believe August should be a fairly boring month. Hopefully this will mean a rise in commodities and OZ-Metals should rise along with it.      

Ryan


----------



## Real1ty

uptonryan said:


> There is a theory that high metal production requires lots of energy. High oil prices impact on the cost of this production and therefore drive commodities companies prices down.
> 
> Oil is very high at the moment but we have plenty of cheap gas in Australia which is where most of the energy production comes from. High Global oil prices may not directly effect plant production.
> 
> Similarly, I believe high oil prices are temporary high. The fundamentals do not support high oil prices. There is plenty of oil coming out of the middle east and plenty of new oil fields coming online or available. The main reason they are so high is because of speculators who have artificially driven the oil price up.
> 
> The main reason the speculators are piling into oil is because they are betting that Bush is going to invade Iran. Iran needs to sell us oil far more than we need to buy it. It’s in Iran’s interests to keep that oil production stable. George Bush is a mad war dog but he only has 7/6 or so months left in office. For him to attack Iran would be sheer lunacy and I believe very unlikely. Eventually people will realise that the US is not going to attack Iran and the oil price will fall.
> 
> Traditionally people invest in commodities when the markets are boring. If there is nothing exciting going on then metals tend to rise. Lately we have had some excitement with the credit crises etc but I believe August should be a fairly boring month. Hopefully this will mean a rise in commodities and OZ-Metals should rise along with it.
> 
> Ryan







> There is a theory that high metal production requires lots of energy. High oil prices impact on the cost of this production and therefore drive commodities companies prices down.




It isn't a theory it is a fact but different processes require different amounts of energy.

Aluminum for example is very energy intensive.
All producers are facing far higher costs, one example was discussed in the paper today re Nickel miners and the soaring costs of Sulpher for Sulphuric acid.


> Oil is very high at the moment but we have plenty of cheap gas in Australia which is where most of the energy production comes from. High Global oil prices may not directly effect plant production.




We may have cheap gas in comparison to overseas but it has still risen in comparison to previous levels.

Many producers, including OXR have all or some of their production overseas.



> Similarly, I believe high oil prices are temporary high. The fundamentals do not support high oil prices. There is plenty of oil coming out of the middle east and plenty of new oil fields coming online or available. The main reason they are so high is because of speculators who have artificially driven the oil price up.




While this topic is highly debatable and i believe we will have an easing of prices over time, you leave out the fact of growing demand, a key element to the fundamentals.




> The main reason the speculators are piling into oil is because they are betting that Bush is going to invade Iran. Iran needs to sell us oil far more than we need to buy it. It’s in Iran’s interests to keep that oil production stable. George Bush is a mad war dog but he only has 7/6 or so months left in office. For him to attack Iran would be sheer lunacy and I believe very unlikely. Eventually people will realise that the US is not going to attack Iran and the oil price will fall.




There are many reasons why people will invest in Oil and the possible Iran invasion would not be one of the major ones.
Have a look at some of the views in the Oil threads here and you will gain some good knowledge.



> Traditionally people invest in commodities when the markets are boring. If there is nothing exciting going on then metals tend to rise. Lately we have had some excitement with the credit crises etc but I believe August should be a fairly boring month. Hopefully this will mean a rise in commodities and OZ-Metals should rise along with it.




Have you not seen the commodity prices for the last few years as we went through a bull market?

I think you should have a look at the supply and demand situations along with a weak US$ rather than your "boring" scenario.


----------



## Speewha

Hello,

As I understand  it OXR recovers large amounts of Sulphides as part of its normal copper and gold operations and is a seller of Sulphuric Acid. So there may be an element of good news buried in the last few posts. Please don’t be too hard on me if I am a off the planet here. 

Regards


----------



## bvbfan

I'm beginning to think that OXR management did this deal with Zinifex for only one reason.

To avoid a takeover for at least 2 years.

Well you buy a complete dog of a stock and get tied to a commodity that has no upside for 2-3years as per the own OXR forecasts.

No predator would consider a stock now 50-60% tied to a dog commodity just for some copper upside however good that was.

If the intention was to delay or stop a takeover then this was a genius move from the OXR team as it will stop any takeover from happening before 2010 at the earliest or unless Zinc somehow manages a Lazarus type recovery before then.

Seems they saw the best way to defend a takeover was to put it off for a few years and hope the shareholder believed the crap being fed.

Only thing I can think of that warranted this takeover if the team at OXR had the view that zinc would be soft the next few years.

If that's the case this is going sub $2 and won't be at $3 again until zinc breaks $1 ($2205/t) and copper is well over $4 ($8820) and gold well over $1000.

Seems they have wiped any takeover premium that was at all left in the stock at the same time.

Bang up job Owen & the team if this was your only motive for the takeover which sadly to me seems correct.

Looking a for capitulation day tomorrow and a test of the $1 handle.


----------



## gfresh

I was thinking, would it be possible Ox put the whole Zinc operation into "care and maintenance" for 2 years until Zinc prices improved? Expansion plans for the zinc operations could also be shelved for a while. Or alternatively they could completely slash zinc production, to an absolute minimum, save costs. 

I think it's adaptable, Oxiana at least doesn't *have* to rely on the former-Zinifex assets to survive - and that will be the strength in future years.


----------



## explod

Obviously a lot of short term investors with small amounts of patience.  IMHO  I see Oz M (OXR) as one of the best long term investments on the ASX.

An excerpt from back a few posts.  It surprises me that posters add the before checking or remembering the content of the thread:-



> As far as I can see most of the selling is due to Barclay's Bank in Scotland. Barclay's is a major instituional investor in Oxiana. Recently Barclay's determined that coupling with the US market through the credit crunch was a bad idea and decided to divest itself of stock so that it only holds 20% gold / silver as a hedge against any rapid stock market crash. This meant a lot of selling of it's shares which it did at relatively low prices.
> 
> It doesn't help that the price of zinc is fairly low, but the newly merged company OZ-Minerals does not just sell zinc. It also has copper at a robust price and gold. One might say that owning OZ-Minerals is almost as good as a hedge as gold is what OZ-Minerals they produces.
> 
> Everyone agrees China and India have been growing strongly and despite recent worries this growth is likely to continue. Less than 1% of people in china and india own cars. Those large developing countries are going to require large amounts of cars as their populations become more wealthy. The price of oil is a major barrier to the fullfillment of that dream. The only likely outcome is the green car. The green car uses fuel cells. Fuel cells need zinc.




And of course general market semtiment is taking everything with it.   Soon there will be a move to quality stock and OXR should be one of the targets.


----------



## Mofra

gfresh said:


> I was thinking, would it be possible Ox put the whole Zinc operation into "care and maintenance" for 2 years until Zinc prices improved? Expansion plans for the zinc operations could also be shelved for a while. Or alternatively they could completely slash zinc production, to an absolute minimum, save costs.
> 
> I think it's adaptable, Oxiana at least doesn't *have* to rely on the former-Zinifex assets to survive - and that will be the strength in future years.



Perhaps there is some merit in the idea of halting expansion or stockpiling, given the following release from abare http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/08ac_june/htm/zinc.htm



> World spot zinc prices have averaged around US$2350 a tonne in the first five months of 2008, about 28 per cent lower than the 2007 average price of US$3243 a tonne. For 2008 as a whole, the spot price of zinc is forecast to average US$2074 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, a decline of 36 per cent from the average price for 2007.
> Prices declining as supply increases
> Zinc production has exceeded consumption so far in 2008, resulting in rising zinc stockpiles and falling prices. For the year as a whole, production is forecast to exceed consumption by around 175 000 tonnes, leading to zinc stockpiles increasing by 30 per cent to 3 weeks of consumption.
> 
> Zinc production is forecast to continue to exceed consumption by around 240 000 tonnes in 2009 leading to a further rise in zinc stockpiles to around 3.9 weeks of consumption. As a result, zinc prices are forecast to fall by a further 15 per cent in 2009 to average about US$1770 a tonne.
> Asia continues to drive world zinc demand…
> World refined zinc consumption is forecast to increase by 4.1 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes in 2008 and a further 4.5 per cent to 12.3 million tonnes in 2009. *Approximately 70 per cent of zinc is consumed in the construction and automotive industries in the form of galvanised (zinc coated) steel or other components such as diecast parts.*




Given explod has pointed out that less than 1% of people in China & India own cars, LT prospects for zinc still look good.


----------



## explod

Mofra said:


> Given explod has pointed out that less than 1% of people in China & India own cars, LT prospects for zinc still look good.





Appreciate the acknowledgement but the quote came from uptonryan's post above on 3rd July.


..


..


----------



## Seneca60BC

and probably 98% cant afford a car they pobably live on $10 a week - LOL


----------



## reece55

bvbfan said:


> I'm beginning to think that OXR management did this deal with Zinifex for only one reason.
> 
> To avoid a takeover for at least 2 years.
> 
> Well you buy a complete dog of a stock and get tied to a commodity that has no upside for 2-3years as per the own OXR forecasts.
> 
> No predator would consider a stock now 50-60% tied to a dog commodity just for some copper upside however good that was.
> 
> If the intention was to delay or stop a takeover then this was a genius move from the OXR team as it will stop any takeover from happening before 2010 at the earliest or unless Zinc somehow manages a Lazarus type recovery before then.
> 
> Seems they saw the best way to defend a takeover was to put it off for a few years and hope the shareholder believed the crap being fed.
> 
> Only thing I can think of that warranted this takeover if the team at OXR had the view that zinc would be soft the next few years.
> 
> If that's the case this is going sub $2 and won't be at $3 again until zinc breaks $1 ($2205/t) and copper is well over $4 ($8820) and gold well over $1000.
> 
> Seems they have wiped any takeover premium that was at all left in the stock at the same time.
> 
> Bang up job Owen & the team if this was your only motive for the takeover which sadly to me seems correct.
> 
> Looking a for capitulation day tomorrow and a test of the $1 handle.




I'm with you BVB, in my view there were cheaper ways for OXR to get it's hand on 1 Bil cash - how about just doing a share placement.......

ZFX was always a one trick pony and with zinc markets in the sh$tter, can't see OXR going anywhere but down/sideways for the medium term future......

Plus, Hegarty isn't running the ship anymore - that man a had a huge following.....

Cheers


----------



## 3MT

I must say its easy to get disheartened when you bought in at 2.50 thinking its a bargain like other analysts. 

It makes no fundamental sense for it to be this low. 6.5B Cap, 1.5B cash, so prominent hill and all the mines of oxiana and zinifex are valued at 5B. That means the other mining stocks still have a lot further to fall on that valuation.

Of course the market doesn't care about fundamentals in the short term. Yes it could be the speculators pulling out because they no longer see it as a short term target for Xtrata and Co. 

But AXA must also be agreeing with some of us as its taken a recent substantial shareholding. 

Charting this stock won't make any sense as its a different company now with no charting history. So I don't buy that, "if it break $x expect the next support to be $y thing


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## MRC & Co

Yep, OXR is one of the few I was thinking of adding to my long-term portfolio, loved the little gem.

Then it merged and....................the rest is history................!

I still didn't mind it, but zinc has become an absolute DOG!


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## dan-o

anyone got any thoughts as whether this will break through $2 mark? can it get much cheaper?
(dont understand why i have to use 100 characters in a message. im just typing now to fill out the limit)


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## profithunter

3MT said:


> I must say its easy to get disheartened when you bought in at 2.50 thinking its a bargain like other analysts.
> 
> It makes no fundamental sense for it to be this low. 6.5B Cap, 1.5B cash, so prominent hill and all the mines of oxiana and zinifex are valued at 5B. That means the other mining stocks still have a lot further to fall on that valuation.
> 
> Of course the market doesn't care about fundamentals in the short term. Yes it could be the speculators pulling out because they no longer see it as a short term target for Xtrata and Co.
> 
> But AXA must also be agreeing with some of us as its taken a recent substantial shareholding.
> 
> Charting this stock won't make any sense as its a different company now with no charting history. So I don't buy that, "if it break $x expect the next support to be $y thing




AXA were substantial in ZFX and consequently have gone substantial in OXR by default of the merger.  Its having a good run coming into the close.


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## 3MT

dan-o said:


> anyone got any thoughts as whether this will break through $2 mark? can it get much cheaper?
> (dont understand why i have to use 100 characters in a message. im just typing now to fill out the limit)




Just curious, why don't you make the guess instead of asking the rest of us to make the guess for you?

It could fall below $2, but if it even comes close again I am topping up again.
At current price you might as well assume the zinc mines are worth $0 . Fair call, but that $0 will continue to generate some nice profit (albeit reduced) for a few years to come yet.


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## Mofra

Seneca60BC said:


> and probably 98% cant afford a car they pobably live on $10 a week - LOL



The inferred reference is to the changing demographics of both countries - China in particular is undergoing the sort of rapid industrialisation that tends to mark the enforced cultural changes of many socialist states, albeit in an (arguably) more friendly manner than the earlier Soviet attempts of Stalin or Mao's cultural revolution.

Of course, all it takes is one Henry Ford like entrepreneur to take a cheap, affordable form of transport and offer it to the people to change the entire cultural demographic of a democracy:

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jan2008/gb20080110_319276.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily


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## matthass

Hi all,

in response to the post about "untested" new company without any charting history or valuations perhaps the following...

"I believe that the pricing will stay strong and these stocks will be revalued upwards," Mr. Laciak says, citing Canadian-listed AUR Resources, First Quantum Minerals, FNX Mining Company, HudBay Minerals, Inmet Mining, and Teck Cominco as those most likely to benefit from an increase in valuation multiples. Those stocks currently trade for between *five and seven times earnings*, net of cash. Mr. Laciak predicts the multiples will rise to above 10."  Dundee Wealth (my bold) May 2007.

Where are we now?...

Good trading.


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## vigilant

Greetings from Guernsey, Channel Islands

The merger scheme of arrangement says that Ineligible Foreign Zinifex Shareholders will not be issued new shares under the scheme of arrangement.  Instead these shares will be issued to a nominee who must within 15 business days after 1 July sell the new shares on the ASX.

Could it be the case that the nominee is selling a significant number of new shares on the market and depressing the price (by my calculations until 21 July)?  ZFX, OXR and the nominee give no assurances about the price that may be achieved by the nominee for these new shares - see page 33 of the scheme booklet.

Unless a shareholder is from the UK USA, NZ or Aus they are assumed to be Ineligible shareholders (because other countries' securities laws may not easily allow the issue of new shares).

I could be completely wrong about this, as most Ineligible shareholders may have sold on the market (presumably big investment funds in the Caymans would sell out to have certainty if they were going to be deemed Ineligible), but if they left that until the last day of trading on 20 June or thereabouts that would explain some fairly recent reduction in market price too.

Any thoughts?


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## dan-o

Does anyone think the name change and official merging of the companies will affect the share price?


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## legs

dan-o said:


> Does anyone think the name change and official merging of the companies will affect the share price?




I'd like to think so... we need a good boost. What generally happens after a merger?? Is there a pattern anyone knows of? Or is it on a one by one basis???


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## oldblue

legs said:


> I'd like to think so... we need a good boost. What generally happens after a merger?? Is there a pattern anyone knows of? Or is it on a one by one basis???




News and expectation usually drives a company's SP on a company specific basis. The actual merging and name change has been signalled long ago so shouldn't have any particular effect. Of course it's not unknown for a company to have a bit of good news to announce to " mark the event" so to speak. Not saying that that's the case here.


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## roland

Latest Aegis research newsletter has their outlook on OXR with the stock on a buy. Must be due for a turnaround if we can just get metal prices up


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## uptonryan

Hi,

The is a lot of concern about OXR falling stock price lately. The obvious reason the price is falling is that we are currently in a bear market. I sense fear and panic in Mr Market. I know that this is a good time to buy. 

Warren Buffett the oracle from Omaha has 24 points for investors from his book "how Buffett does it" by James Pardoe. I'd like to refresh everyone with them because they are especially more relevent and better points than I can make.

1) Choose Simplicity Over Complexity. OXR are simple they dig stuff up and ship it to china

2) Make your own investment decisions. I would put too much faith in what those big funds are doing with OXR whether it's buy, sell or otherwise.

3) Maintain proper temperament. Try not to buy or sell when you are emotionally charged.

4)Be Patient. Currently the stockmarket is volatile. Volatility happens in high inflation bear markets. But Volatility means stocks that go down go up as well.

5)Buy Businesses, Not Stocks. It's important to look at the underlying value of the stocks. OXR has huge cash reserves and profitable mines. These fundamentals will be recognised by the market in time.

6) Buy Low -Tech, Not High-Tech. Can't get any more low tech than digging stuff up out of the ground. Although some mining is highly sophisticated in the main the concept is simple.

7)Concentrate your stock Investments. Without risk there is no reward. If you diversify all your investment over many stocks you loose all your risk and you increase the complexity of managing your portfolio. By concentrating all your investment into a few stocks it is much easier to learn everthing about that stock and judge undervalued and overvalued opportunities.

8) Practice Inactivity, Not Hyperactivity. Robert Holmes Court used to saying there was no problem that couldn't be solved by waiting 24 hours. If you constantly churn your stock your transaction costs go up and you also increase the chance of missing the high highs and low lows.

9) Don't look at the ticker. If you constant look at every change of stock price you may panic your self.

10) View Market downturns as buying opportunities. Warren Buffet made most of his money by buying Coca Cola and other great value firms when the market paniced and undervalued the firms. The bull comes up the stairs and the bear goes out the window. So when value changes you make far more money in quick changing bear markets than in bull markets.

11) Don't swing at every pitch.

12) Ignore the Macro focus on the micro. 

13) Take a close look at management. In someways I wish I could have gone to the shareholders meeting. Mayber someone can fill me in on the events?

14) Remeber the Emperor Wears no Clothes

15) Practice Independent thinking

16)
Stay within your circle of Competence

17) Ignore Stock Market Forecasts

18) Understand Mr Market and the MArgin of Safety

19) Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are feerful

20) Read, Reda some more and think

21) Use All Your Horsepower

23) Avoid the Costly Mistakes of Others

24) Become a Sound Investor.

Lastly I would like to add that if you hold stock at 3ish and then buy the same amount at 2ish the stock only has to go back up to 2.5 ish for you to make your money back.

Ryan


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## seventh

*whats happened to oxiania*

has anyone got a reason the bottom is falling out of oxr


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## uptonryan

It is true that OXR shares have come under selling pressure recently. 

The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, said that in the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company. 

My impression is that there appears to be a lot irrational votes against OXR in the short term driving the price sub $2 and in the long term the real value of OXR shall weigh the stock in at $6-5.

The forces that are driving the stock down are mostly temporary and a distraction. 

•	Confusion and Concern over the OZR ZFX merger
•	Fear from an Australian bear market.
•	Concern over high oil prices impacting costs of production.
•	Oversupply of zinc in the market.
•	Fear of China’s boom decline impacting the demand for metals.
•	Carbon trading scheme impacting on the cost of production.
•	A gas explosion in WA has impacted energy supply to the mines
•	Credit Crises Recession from the US scaring investors into selling.
•	 Blow out in time or cost of mine projects due to lack of qualified people.

I wager that many of these effects are temporary because they are largely macro forces.  They may have a negative effect but they globally apply to most companies.  The strategy to overcome these downward pressures is to find value companies that are resistant.

I believe OXR is a value company because.

•	It’s simple. Digs stuff up and carts it off to china
•	Has a strategic competitive advantage with the mine assets, mix of resources and size of resource that it holds. 
•	Has a strong Statement of Financial Position and Statement of Financial Performance.
•	Has a large amount of cash to invest in new projects.
•	And most important has an experienced team.

The last point about the team is crucial because most companies are separated by the management.

Good management should 

•	Work to enrich share holders and not work to enrich themselves.
•	Be frugal and not waste money as spendthrifts
•	Be dedicated to improving shareholder value and rational allocation of capital
•	Work toward repurchasing shares and not dilute existing holdings by issuing new shares 
•	Treat shareholders as Partners and not Patsies
•	Is the Annual report straight forward or fluff?
•	Are the managers honest with accounting, or do they appear to be hiding information and concealing numbers?

In terms of OXR it worries me that the management are claiming large amounts of money for termination payments and million dollar salaries that don’t seam to be forwarding the interests of the company. I feel happy that the termination payment did not go through and so in all this is a small concern.

The Marketing campaign behind the merger, techno rock video etc does seam to be a little exorbitant. As a counter point I expect a merger to impact on expenditure. It will be interesting to see if they are frugal with the billions of cash from Zinefex or if they waste it on non-core expenses.   

In large I believe they are dedicated to improving shareholder value. Although we haven’t seen much in the way of share price increase lately I cant see a way to blame management for this.

I don’t know of any new share issues.

It worried me that the shareholding meeting was controlled and that management appear to not respond to shareholders concerns. To be fair they are most likely under some workload from the merger.

I thought the Annual report and presentation from the meeting was not too fluffy. Although they did seam to talk more about there past accomplishments and ranking compared to other companies and potential markets. I would like to have seen more talk about generating value.

OXR accounting seams to be fairly open and transparent. There does not appear to be too many confusing foot notes and lots of value discussions.    

In my view a sub $2 share price means an irrational Mr Market. The company is making profit and demand is strong. Prior to the merger OXR was $4 and ZFX was $8. The combination of the two companies equates to roughly $5-$6. The assets of those companies have not disappeared and the value should roughly be equivalent. 

Alternatively a finance company is made largely of paper and has no assets to buoy value. Beer and Sterns can fall to zero as there are no underlying physical assets that can be sold to recuperate value.  

The Markets for Metals are world wide and established. China has become a large market and won’t disappear overnight. Similarly the US, even depressed, shall require metals. I personally find it hard to see the loss of value. 

Warren Buffet says buy and hold when Mr Market undervalues irrationally. A sub $2 OXR to me signals buy.

Ryan


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## oldblue

Hi Ryan
I go along with most of your points but think the biggest factor is the concern about the takeover - it's hardly a merger - of ZFX.
The sub-points of this include:
- the fact that it was presented as a fait-accompli as far as OXR shareholders were concerned with no opportunity to vote on the issue.
- Concern about the increased exposure to price of zinc.
- ZFX history as "successor" to a failed company.
- Expectation that the zinc business is probably operating at a cash loss at present.
-Loss of OH, widely perceived by OXR shareholders as the driving force of OXR, coupled with some unease about the new MD.

So market sentiment is heavily against the newly merged company and may remain so until it can demonstrate that it will operate profitably in its new form. Prominent Hill is an important factor here but the critical issue is still the PoZ, as zinc will still be the biggest chunk of the business once PH is up and running.
For myself, I'm holding a small parcel at well above current price but will keep it on my watchlist for consideration once the market stabilises.


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## vegemite

You can't really make the statement below unless each company had the same number of shares:

"Prior to the merger OXR was $4 and ZFX was $8. The combination of the two companies equates to roughly $5-$6"

More pertinent would be to say that each had a market cap of approx 6 billion prior to merger so all else being equal the new market cap would be 12 billion and the OZL share price would be $4.

However as oldblue points out, ZFX is not going to be contributing much at all to earnings due to the weakness in the zinc price (and the nickel price also) so the market is being quite reasonable in halving the share price - with the current metals prices it is essentially just OXR contributing all the earnings but with twice as many shares on issue. 

When zinc prices increase then it will be a different story but most commentators suggest this isn't going to happen for a couple of years (2010). 

Still confounds me my why OXR boarding a zincing ship but thats another issue,

Cheers, V


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## rederob

vegemite said:


> When zinc prices increase then it will be a different story but most commentators suggest this isn't going to happen for a couple of years (2010).



A lot can happen in 2 years and zinc could drop further.
But this year was to see a substantial stock build, which so far has not happened.  
So my suspicion is that zinc's cycle of lows has about arrived, and I believe a price rise of meagre proportions is in the wind.
ZFX Century mine cash costs are around break even, but its other projects will generate some reasonable net earnings, albeit nothing like OXR's.
The low zinc price has put a few projects on care and maintenance, and made the going tough for some smaller operators.  
I'm thinking a more realistic price in the medium term is the 100 - 120cents/lb
 range, which, given China's cutback of lead and zinc refining, should have good support.
On the downside is the fact that commercials have no trouble sourcing zinc at the moment, leading me to think the rise of zinc to a dollar will not happen soon.


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## Speewha

Hello, 
Results OXR  are due this week unless totally off the planet should not have much affect on SP 

So where to from here ? 
Do you think OZ minerals will make a tilt a major takeover next twelve months ? 
Do you think their statements of wanting to get into bulk commodities means iron ? 
Do you think they will need to move quickly with an acquisition to fend off themselves becoming a target ?
Possibility of share buyback ?  

Would appreciate thoughts

Regards


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## redsmartie

I have been a holder of OXR for a while now and I have sold most of my holdings, at profit and bought some back recently. I think the company is now in a position to sit and wait for projects to mature. I think the share price has matured enough to prevent it falling back too much, but this zinc thing has really got to be replaced by some good commodity product. Zinc is just one of the many options for Oxiana and other types of commodities can be expensive to get into so the cheap one was probably the best option for the company board.


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## Whitsy

Lets hope todays announcement of the official name change can get things going for OZ. I must say i dont mind the new logo and the reasoning behind it.


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## oldblue

redsmartie said:


> I have been a holder of OXR for a while now and I have sold most of my holdings, at profit and bought some back recently. I think the company is now in a position to sit and wait for projects to mature. I think the share price has matured enough to prevent it falling back too much, but this zinc thing has really got to be replaced by some good commodity product. Zinc is just one of the many options for Oxiana and other types of commodities can be expensive to get into so the cheap one was probably the best option for the company board.




Zinc is now too big a proportion of the new OZ's output to be "replaced". It has become more a matter of " balancing " zinc and I see the company looking to add to it's other core metals, gold , copper, and nickel.
I doubt whether they have any plans to get into iron ore, but anything's possible.


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## Joe Blow

After the merger with Zinifex (ZFX), Oxiana (OXR) is now known as Oz Minerals (OZL). Discussion on Oz Minerals (OZL) continues here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11797

This thread has now been closed.


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