# Economic cycle



## Peter2047 (21 September 2011)

Someone sent me a chart of boom-bust cycle. This chart was also published by George Tritch in 1872.

Can some economic cycle experts comment on this chart ? THanks.


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## KurwaJegoMac (21 September 2011)

Peter2047 said:


> Someone sent me a chart of boom-bust cycle. This chart was also published by George Tritch in 1872.
> 
> Can some economic cycle experts comment on this chart ? THanks.




While I wouldn't go so far as to say it's possible to predict a cycle 100 years in advance, there is a lot of merit in understanding economic cycles. A modern adaptation is the "economic clock":

http://www.google.com.au/imgres?img...znx5TtqDF8SZiAep-_g3&ved=0CDAQ9QEwAQ&dur=1312

It's more of a black art trying to predit the exact start/end of a cycle to an exact year, but it pays to understand the sequence of general economic cycles and their effects on various asset prices.


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## Tysonboss1 (21 September 2011)

Yes, all you need to know is that it exists.

Every Bull market will over do itself and end badly and every deep crash will over do itself and be followed by a bull market which will eventually over do it's and end badly.

Human emotions ensure this will continue to happen.

As Ben Graham said " Interesting opportunities abound and the Intelligent Investor should find both profit and enjoyment in this three ringed circus, Excitement is guaranteed"


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## KurwaJegoMac (21 September 2011)

Check out Sir Osisoliver's brilliant thread which touches on Economic Cycles:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14370&page=20

(Post #400 and 401)


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## skc (21 September 2011)

Peter2047 said:


> Someone sent me a chart of boom-bust cycle. This chart was also published by George Tritch in 1872.
> 
> Can some economic cycle experts comment on this chart ? THanks.




He picked the 2007 top pretty good.

And a 2012 bottom is probably appropriate as well.


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## Peter2047 (21 September 2011)

Thanks very much for you reply and link.


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## sinner (21 September 2011)

Good topic!

Sector Rotation - from http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3618.html







(although the first one is more applicable probably).

Coupled with this - Kondratiev waves
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

Graphic: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Kondratieff_Wave.svg

Is a good place to start! Lots and lots of stuff on this topic! 

But these days, because of the role of the Fed in global monetary politics, it can generally be "all about the interest rate cycle"


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## Wysiwyg (21 September 2011)

Further research into the o.p. chart brought this similarity up. Should we question authenticity considering the ability to doctor pictures with software.

THE BENNER CYCLE, FIBONACCI NUMBERS
& THE NUMBER 56


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## Peter2047 (21 September 2011)

There are multiple version of the charts. I couldn't verify the authenticity. But I would like to know it's accuracy.


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## KurwaJegoMac (21 September 2011)

Peter2047 said:


> There are multiple version of the charts. I couldn't verify the authenticity. But I would like to know it's accuracy.




Best way to validate is to determine the theory used to calculate the cylces (wysywig had some info there) then pick a different starting point and run through the calcs. 

As i said before, you cant calculate this stuff to an exact date - its more about understanding the effects of different stages of the economic cycle


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## IFocus (21 September 2011)

Gents in reference to the current down turn its not a normal cycle in as much as its caused by debt over burden


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## Tysonboss1 (21 September 2011)

IFocus said:


> Gents in reference to the current down turn its not a normal cycle in as much as its caused by debt over burden




it is always something,


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## Conza88 (21 September 2011)

Peter2047 said:


> Someone sent me a chart of boom-bust cycle. This chart was also published by George Tritch in 1872.
> 
> Can some economic cycle experts comment on this chart ? THanks.




​

It's called the Austrian theory of the business cycle. 

But there was no central bank back then? Yes. There was free banking. Fractional reserve banking plays an important role in the inflationary process (artificial boom, then bust).


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