# Buy when there's blood in the streets



## wbooo (16 August 2007)

Has everyone lost their senses, this is undoubtedly one of the best times to buy, in the last month several companies have reported excellent results with more excellent results expected for next year, if you don't buy these stocks now when will you buy them?,   Oh yes silly me , thats right when the price has risen to an all time high and your paying atleast 20% above fair value.

Great companies have been down valued by upto 20% since the djia started its decline, most of these companies have niothing to do with the housing market, have very conservative debt levels and excellent cashflow, so who cares about the subprime mortgages, or the credit bubble, these companies have survived atleast one recession in their lifetimes and lived to tell the tale.

People 'DONT PANICK' as long as your holdings are in solid companies you'll be o.k, just by value not hype.


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## prawn_86 (16 August 2007)

*Re: Buy when theres blood on the streets*

I agree.

And the question has to be asked:

'who is buying at these levels?'

If ordinary 'normal' investors are getting panicked and selling, someone is happily snapping them up. My suggestion would be funds and top20 holders of the co's. I think we may see a lot of substantial holding changes statements over the next couple months


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## DionM (16 August 2007)

Well I've been topping up and buying new shares.  Though that's backfired - everything I bought yesterday and the day before has fallen more ... I thought we were nearing the bottom and support lines on some of those stocks ... obviously not!


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## wbooo (16 August 2007)

Forget support lines Dion,

What you need to do, is look back over the year at other general market drop times where your stocks were effected, ie news about china running our of steam or raising rates and see how much your stocks dropped at that time, look at the maximum drop, eg, cochlear falls by appx 10% to 15% at worse.  

Once you have figured out your worse case scenario price, that should be your buying price, eg your stock is currently 5.50, in March it fell from 4.50 to 4, so now expect it to fall to 5, and buy at or below 5, if you are feeling more pessimistic.


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## dubiousinfo (16 August 2007)

wbooo said:


> Has everyone lost their senses, this is undoubtedly one of the best times to buy, in the last month several companies have reported excellent results with more excellent results expected for next year, if you don't buy these stocks now when will you buy them?,   Oh yes silly me , thats right when the price has risen to an all time high and your paying atleast 20% above fair value.
> 
> Great companies have been down valued by upto 20% since the djia started its decline, most of these companies have niothing to do with the housing market, have very conservative debt levels and excellent cashflow, so who cares about the subprime mortgages, or the credit bubble, these companies have survived atleast one recession in their lifetimes and lived to tell the tale.
> 
> People 'DONT PANICK' as long as your holdings are in solid companies you'll be o.k, just by value not hype.




Thats what I did in 87. I was sitting on losses but convinced the market would go back up so decided to buy more. Picked up some great bargains, blue chips were so cheap and the spec stuff, had never seen it so cheap.
The only problem was that they were even cheaper a week later, then cheaper still 2 weeks later. 

I will be looking to go back into a number of companies. But not yet. Happy to be holding some shorts for the moment.


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## zt3000 (16 August 2007)

wbooo said:


> Has everyone lost their senses ......
> 
> People 'DONT PANICK' as long as your holdings are in solid companies you'll be o.k, just by value not hype.




Dude its human nature ... the problem is hedge funds are being forced to sell even if they holding good stock. Which as you can see triggers everyone elses selling button.

The thing is you might think its stupid to sell, the company is now undervalued ... but when market sentiment is working against you, you may as well pack your bags and become a sheep too ... 

at the end of the day we all trade differently as have different levels of risk aversion .. good luck either way to all!  we need it


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## Flying Fish (16 August 2007)

Crazy buying now. More big falls to come I reckon.


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## doctorj (16 August 2007)

As a small, sad aside, I'm surprised we've not yet any stories about actual blood on the streets.


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## lusk (16 August 2007)

wbooo said:


> Has everyone lost their senses, this is undoubtedly one of the best times to buy, in the last month several companies have reported excellent results with more excellent results expected for next year, if you don't buy these stocks now when will you buy them?,   Oh yes silly me , thats right when the price has risen to an all time high and your paying atleast 20% above fair value.
> 
> Great companies have been down valued by upto 20% since the djia started its decline, most of these companies have niothing to do with the housing market, have very conservative debt levels and excellent cashflow, so who cares about the subprime mortgages, or the credit bubble, these companies have survived atleast one recession in their lifetimes and lived to tell the tale.
> 
> People 'DONT PANICK' as long as your holdings are in solid companies you'll be o.k, just by value not hype.





Sorry but no thanks, would you get on a train thats going the wrong way? You can still make money however in this downtrend instead of buying the underlying share.


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## wbooo (16 August 2007)

The ASX has now officially fallen by a greater percentage then the djia.  

Even if there are more falls to come, and I too beleive there are, since no one likes to hold stocks in a falling market going into a weekend, the selling is still overdone, when I say buy when theres blood on the street I am not advocating that anyone buts right now, I am just saying that a lot of great stocks have fallen below fair value and if you have the stomach for it you can make good profits over the next few weeks/months.

I consider myself to be an investor not a trader, and I consider myself to be risk averse, even though what I am saying may sound risky, it is only risky if you are looking for quick profits and have a lot of gearing.


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## DionM (16 August 2007)

Personally ... I hate the fall in SP more for the fact that I missed an even better price to buy in at, rather than because the fall in SP has reduced the value of my holdings ... does that make sense?


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## Morgan (16 August 2007)

What really rubs salt into the would is knowing that we will only know in hindsight at some time in the future, what stocks are currently presenting the buying opportunities of a lifetime......


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## Gundini (16 August 2007)

There is plenty of blood on the streets and it will be for all to see in the coming days...

As a poster mentioned in another thread yesterday, if you are happy to buy MBL @ $66, why would you buy it on the way down?

Buy it for $66 on the way up!

This is very good advice...

MBL by the way currently $61.97.


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## sleeper88 (16 August 2007)

the super funds aren't fairing much better..and for all those people who topped up their supers before june 30th would also be feeling the pain


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## nioka (16 August 2007)

wbooo said:


> Once you have figured out your worse case scenario price, that should be your buying price, eg your stock is currently 5.50, in March it fell from 4.50 to 4, so now expect it to fall to 5, and buy at or below 5, if you are feeling more pessimistic.




AGM and AOE fell below my worst case senario and I bought. Their worst case has now become obselete and a new one has emerged. I refuse to join the lemmings so I think I will have to go fishing or do the garden. A bad days fishing would be better than this and when the world wearies and life doesn't satisfy there is always the garden.


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## DionM (16 August 2007)

I wonder how those on margin lending are faring   Surely there would have been a few calls recently ...


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## Julia (16 August 2007)

nioka said:


> A bad days fishing would be better than this and when the world wearies and life doesn't satisfy there is always the garden.




Or a walk on the beach with the dog, or being with friends who know nothing about the stock market.


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## Magdoran (16 August 2007)

doctorj said:


> As a small, sad aside, I'm surprised we've not yet any stories about actual blood on the streets.



Yes, good point doctorj,


Let’s hope this isn’t like 1987.  

You can always recover, remember that no matter how bad it seems.  There are survivors from 1987’s losses that recovered, and are living good lives – there is always a way…


Mag


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## krisbarry (16 August 2007)

doctorj said:


> As a small, sad aside, I'm surprised we've not yet any stories about actual blood on the streets.





Those stories will be on their way...just imagine all those people who borrowed $1 million to pump into super, now its worth about $870,000k, not to mention higher interest rates and a housing crisis...ouch!


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## Junior (16 August 2007)

Gundini said:


> There is plenty of blood on the streets and it will be for all to see in the coming days...
> 
> As a poster mentioned in another thread yesterday, if you are happy to buy MBL @ $66, why would you buy it on the way down?
> 
> ...





That is, if you can know when it is on it's way back up.


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## Gundini (16 August 2007)

BillNorman said:


> That is, if you can know when it is on it's way back up.




Very true! But I think the point of the exercise is to buy on a uptrend and not try to catch the knife. In this case, the Trend is fairly clear.


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## shinobi346 (16 August 2007)

I'm a bit wary about buying the Macquarie bank now. Unlike most of the other shares which are falling because the market is down, one of Macquarie Banks funds actually lost money. And if its like many of their other funds, Macquarie banks own a hefty portion of it too.

but I agree in principle, buy on the uptrend.


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## greggles (10 May 2022)

There's blood in the streets today. I'm seeing plenty of what appear to be bargains in the resources sector, but haven't yet pulled the trigger out of concern that we haven't seen the bottom yet. Fear is driving the market at the moment, and fear is difficult to control. I think capitulation may still be some way off.


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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

i did some buying yesterday  

 nothing caught on the fishing line  , so far , today 

will probably miss all i am chasing ( by the looks of it )


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## qldfrog (10 May 2022)

Yes buy but what...I bought a bit of oil cause even when sick or scared, we still need oil; thought about coal humm not down enough, looked at FMG..too woke..RIO hum nice but still a little bit to go
BHP..nah..
Banks ..they will be the first to fall but also to be rescued...
I toyed with PLS but when **** hits the fan no one care about tesla , they want food and heating.IPL still a bit too high


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## CityIndex (10 May 2022)

greggles said:


> There's blood in the streets today. I'm seeing plenty of what appear to be bargains in the resources sector, but haven't yet pulled the trigger out of concern that we haven't seen the bottom yet. Fear is driving the market at the moment, and fear is difficult to control. I think capitulation may still be some way off.



When looking at volume on ASX futures this morning, seems like a massive sell-order went through near the open, which could be indicative of a larger institutional investor closing-out their long exposure.

Of course, all trading carries risk, but this may be the reason for the huge declines within the opening 15-20 minutes.

The ASX200 has pared some of its losses, so it’ll be interesting to see if the move below 7000 encourages dip-buyers to step in, or if it leads to losses accelerating through the afternoon.


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## wayneL (10 May 2022)

greggles said:


> There's blood in the streets today. I'm seeing plenty of what appear to be bargains in the resources sector, but haven't yet pulled the trigger out of concern that we haven't seen the bottom yet. Fear is driving the market at the moment, and fear is difficult to control. I think capitulation may still be some way off.



Yep we are only circa 10% from the all-time high, not really blood in the streets in the true sense. (Worse in other markets of course)

I am eyeing a couple of miners, but I am waiting till I see the whites of their eyes.... When the bond market gets slaughtered, that's when the real bargains will reveal themselves.


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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Yes buy but what...I bought a bit of oil cause even when sick or scared, we still need oil; thought about coal humm not down enough, looked at FMG..too woke..RIO hum nice but still a little bit to go
> BHP..nah..
> Banks ..they will be the first to fall but also to be rescued...
> I toyed with PLS but when **** hits the fan no one care about tesla , they want food and heating.IPL still a bit too high



added extra AIS , CMW , CEN ,EVN and WGX those were my top-ups yesterday 

 probably nothing today  unless the market drop big time  before the close


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## qldfrog (10 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> added extra AIS , CMW , CEN ,EVN and WGX those were my top-ups yesterday
> 
> probably nothing today  unless the market drop big time  before the close



Ok..a bit of Rio at the low today..moderate amount as Rio can still go to 80s in a non total collapse so still high imho above 100


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## eskys (10 May 2022)

I follow the grain trail; GNC....also watching to get out at the same time.....just got out. This one has been good to me ....anyone who wants to trade this one, look up the history of trades and where the price is at certain times of the day (again, not an encouragement to buy, so please ignore if you are uncertain, always better to be safe than sorry)


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## qldfrog (10 May 2022)

eskys said:


> I follow the grain trail; GNC....also watching to get out at the same time.....just got out. This one has been good to me ....anyone who wants to trade this one, look up the history of trades and where the price is at certain times of the day (again, not an encouragement to buy, so please ignore if you are uncertain, always better to be safe than sorry)



Interesting as i thought this morning this is a stock i d like to have especially as we should get 2 to 3ty good seasons ahead.i then checked
But i backed off :was not yet a buy for me


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## mullokintyre (10 May 2022)

Still only a minor flesh wound, won’t even need stitches.
not buying yet.
mick


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## eskys (10 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Interesting as i thought this morning this is a stock i d like to have especially as we should get 2 to 3ty good seasons ahead.i then checked
> But i backed off :was not yet a buy for me



The consumer staples have been holding up since the war in Ukraine, Covid and lockdown, so I follow that, qldfrog. Ukraine used to produce a lot of wheat and was a food bowl of Europe. That I thought, placed GNC in a good position. Was at 52 weeks high about a week ago following their announcement. (Coles and Woolworths did well but pulled back today, so I thought some caution here is also warranted with this one. The depth remains good, but that doesn't mean it won't turn. Watch it for a few days and see how it behaves before jumping in.

I saw another post of yours mentioning banks. There was an article I read about this last week. I've found it and will paste it here , not sure if this is against forum rules, I'm sure someone will tell me if it is....................(by the way, number one is consumer staples)
2. Banks​
Banks remain among the best ways to play rising inflation/interest rates. An expanding Net Interest Margin (NIM) as rates rise boosts bank earnings and dividend capacity. Of course, the NIM is only part of the story. A slowing global economy risks a spike in bad and doubtful debts, which is bad for banks.


For the past 12 months, I’ve preferred global banks, believing US and European banks are better priced than their Australian peers. The BetaShares Global Banks ETF – Currency Hedged – is a simple, cost-effective tool for global bank exposure. 


Lately, my focus has swung more towards Australian banks. I’m concerned that the Russia-Ukraine war could be a headwind for Europe’s economy for longer than expected. Soaring US inflation (I don’t believe US inflation has peaked) and aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed are another concern.


Australia’s economy looks better placed than most. We won’t escape the growth/inflation problems overseas, but a sharp increase in bad debts here looks less likely. There is too much at stake in Australian housing for policymakers to stomach a wave of defaults by allowing rates to rise too far. 


For Australian banks, the VanEck Australian Banks ETF appeals.


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## qldfrog (10 May 2022)

eskys said:


> The consumer staples have been holding up since the war in Ukraine, Covid and lockdown, so I follow that, qldfrog. Ukraine used to produce a lot of wheat and was a food bowl of Europe. That I thought, placed GNC in a good position. Was at 52 weeks high about a week ago following their announcement. (Coles and Woolworths did well but pulled back today, so I thought some caution here is also warranted with this one. The depth remains good, but that doesn't mean it won't turn. Watch it for a few days and see how it behaves before jumping in.
> 
> I saw another post of yours mentioning banks. There was an article I read about this last week. I've found it and will paste it here , not sure if this is against forum rules, I'm sure someone will tell me if it is....................(by the way, number one is consumer staples)
> 2. Banks​
> ...



Bank are good vs inflation but the current situation could trigger a liquidity squeeze which would not be negative, but actually wipe out banks.
Aka collapsed
So if just crisis oz banks are a good play
If worse, then it is absolute full loss risk.
I dabbed a bit in mqr to spread my risk 
Europe is gone and dusted economically , even before a tactical nuke or a bioweapon release..obviously only by the bad Putin..a new evil as the US always need one..remember WMD....
About cereal, it is not only Ukraine which became key exporter, but Russia too nearly 40% of world exports.

Watch the video i posted on the reset thread to see how Putin planned his fight vs the US when Biden son was bribing Ukrainian..and the other way during Obama
Gold reserves, switch to keep a full stranglehold on agricultural exports and minerals.and the russians were a most numerous presence in SZ, China when i was there 5y ago.
What we are seeing is a slow speed compactor race with no real surprise...
So next stage is Fiat collapse.what types of shares will thrive then?

The EU farming is too damaged by subsidies issues and its green quest preventing fertilisers, pesticides and favorising bio to be able to bump productions, 
and the starving african population moved there already and that could explode under famine stress.
Add a bad harvest expected this year there and Australia could do very well on the wheat front.
For the economy, you would be surprised at the level of damage a far left/labour coalition can do in short amount of time based on 1989's socialism experiences in Europe 🥴
We will have the answer there quickly
No easy time and as many I still bleed cash daily


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## divs4ever (11 May 2022)

eskys said:


> The consumer staples have been holding up since the war in Ukraine, Covid and lockdown, so I follow that, qldfrog. Ukraine used to produce a lot of wheat and was a food bowl of Europe. That I thought, placed GNC in a good position. Was at 52 weeks high about a week ago following their announcement. (Coles and Woolworths did well but pulled back today, so I thought some caution here is also warranted with this one. The depth remains good, but that doesn't mean it won't turn. Watch it for a few days and see how it behaves before jumping in.
> 
> I saw another post of yours mentioning banks. There was an article I read about this last week. I've found it and will paste it here , not sure if this is against forum rules, I'm sure someone will tell me if it is....................(by the way, number one is consumer staples)
> 2. Banks​
> ...



 but wasn't 2020 the time for that  , i started buying MVB in 2017 with the latest parcel in October 2020 

 HOWEVER if you think the real meltdown is due  ( not just another dip ) it certainly should be considered  for a place on the watch-list 

 PS get to understand the distributions  this ETF SOMETIMES pays three times a year ( instead of the usual twice yearly ) 

timing  can be a big advantage on this one 

 but currency-hedged stuff   not me , i have seen how that stuff can go wrong , and many of those international banks are an ongoing crime-scene , makes our banks look like kiddies at a kindergarten ( except MQG which definitely has it's 'big-boy pants' on )

 and the EU they were a train-wreck ( and possibly the trigger  of the Repo Madness ) in 2019 and earlier ( remember they had to install Draghi into the Italian leadership   so the ECB/IMF would continue bailing it out )


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## divs4ever (11 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Bank are good vs inflation but the current situation could trigger a liquidity squeeze which would not be negative, but actually wipe out banks.
> Aka collapsed
> So if just crisis oz banks are a good play
> If worse, then it is absolute full loss risk.
> ...



 the banks ALREADY triggered a liquidity squeeze  , that was what Repo Madness was about ( they wouldn't even lend to each other overnight  or for 14 days , and TECHNICALLY they are secured loans  )

 why do you think all the Central Banks are buying sovereign bonds , because the big banks would rather not buy them , sure the pension funds buy some , as do international trading partners ( well at least until the froze/seized the Russian foreign reserves )

 why would you take on sovereign risk ( on the US , EU or Japan ) at such pathetic returns


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## eskys (11 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Bank are good vs inflation but the current situation could trigger a liquidity squeeze which would not be negative, but actually wipe out banks.
> Aka collapsed
> So if just crisis oz banks are a good play
> If worse, then it is absolute full loss risk.
> ...



You guys are deep thinkers, divs, frog. That amounts to a lot of work and reading to acquire the knowledge. Thank you for your posts.

I don't invest in international banks, only in our own....safer in my own backyard, but hard enough as it is. Good luck, market about to open. Iron ore down US$1.72


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## divs4ever (11 May 2022)

eskys said:


> You guys are deep thinkers, divs, frog. That amounts to a lot of work and reading to acquire the knowledge. Thank you for your posts.
> 
> I don't invest in international banks, only in our own....safer in my own backyard, but hard enough as it is. Good luck, market about to open. Iron ore down US$1.72



 although i also hold VUK and KSL  , yes i agree  our currency  is supported by commodity exports ( minerals , grain , wool , cotton and oil/gas ) our currency should resist becoming a total tragic


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## qldfrog (11 May 2022)

eskys said:


> You guys are deep thinkers, divs, frog. That amounts to a lot of work and reading to acquire the knowledge. Thank you for your posts.
> 
> I don't invest in international banks, only in our own....safer in my own backyard, but hard enough as it is. Good luck, market about to open. Iron ore down US$1.72



Probably overthinking more than deep thinking.
The share market is a game of lemmings not thinkers..
Go with the flow, just eject in time..so my play on trend systems ..removing ..some...thinking from trading


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## eskys (11 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Probably overthinking more than deep thinking.
> The share market is a game of lemmings not thinkers..
> Go with the flow, just eject in time..so my play on trend systems ..removing ..some...thinking from trading



A lot of money around, but that's slowly dwindling I guess. Lots more fear. CPI tonight.Picked up some BHP and GNC, missed FMG.(GNC special div 12 cents, total 24cents in July, but share price down a lot) When things go wrong with this lemming, trading turns into an investment


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## qldfrog (11 May 2022)

eskys said:


> A lot of money around, but that's slowly dwindling I guess. Lots more fear. CPI tonight.Picked up some BHP and GNC, missed FMG.(GNC special div 12 cents, total 24cents in July, but share price down a lot) When things go wrong with this lemming, trading turns into an investment



agree bought two lots EVN at 3.52 and Rio at $101.4 both as investment, not trading.
GNC down a lot? Down to $10.28 which was only reached 2 weeks ago..
Not down a lot for me, hardly down....or are we mixing codes?


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## eskys (11 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> agree bought two lots EVN at 3.52 and Rio at $101.4 both as investment, not trading.
> GNC down a lot? Down to $10.28 which was only reached 2 weeks ago..
> Not down a lot for me, hardly down....or are we mixing codes?



We are talking the same stock. To me it's down a lot depending on how you see it. I took the top and bottom of today, a difference of 53 cents. Imagine buying the top and watch it slip downhill. (that's why I said yesterday to watch the stock and compare the price in relation to the time.....bit volatile, long ride if bought too early after open, watch it slide, get in when it shows signs of recovery. Sensitive announcement today, seems good to me, but punters are going hmmm?


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