# Went net short on US equities on 5th June (BBUS @ 2.65aud). Size: big.



## derangedlawyer (7 June 2020)

Went net short on US equities on 5th June (BBUS @ 2.65aud). Size: big.
I might have timed the market correctly by the looks of it.

Looking to hedge just a bit with a small sized long on decent value stocks; any ideas? Ideally something quoted on the ASX, either shares or ETFs.


----------



## qldfrog (7 June 2020)

derangedlawyer said:


> Went net short on US equities on 5th June (BBUS @ 2.65aud). Size: big.
> I might have timed the market correctly by the looks of it.
> 
> Looking to hedge just a bit with a small sized long on decent value stocks; any ideas? Ideally something quoted on the ASX, either shares or ETFs.



Gear?


----------



## derangedlawyer (7 June 2020)

What do you mean "gear"?


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 June 2020)

derangedlawyer said:


> Went net short on US equities on 5th June (BBUS @ 2.65aud). Size: big.
> I might have timed the market correctly by the looks of it.
> 
> Looking to hedge just a bit with a small sized long on decent value stocks; any ideas? Ideally something quoted on the ASX, either shares or ETFs.




good hunting with that
care to tell us what the "it" is that you based your net short on?


----------



## cutz (7 June 2020)

derangedlawyer said:


> Went net short on US equities on 5th June (BBUS @ 2.65aud). Size: big.
> I might have timed the market correctly by the looks of it.
> 
> Looking to hedge just a bit with a small sized long on decent value stocks; any ideas? Ideally something quoted on the ASX, either shares or ETFs.




Hey Buddy.

I'm in the same situation, way short on our index. Friday's US melt up is making for a nervous weekend.

What's your thinking behind hedging your short position. Depending on the correlation between the short EFT and potential longs the same outcome could have been achieved by a lesser short exposure.


----------



## frugal.rock (7 June 2020)

GEAR is an etf.

So is OOO.


----------



## derangedlawyer (7 June 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> good hunting with that
> care to tell us what the "it" is that you based your net short on?



Technical analysis (30%), fundamentals still horrible, riots + covid + trump under pressure, excessive bullish sentiment amongst the dual digits IQ, hedge funds freaking timebomb before they start to landslide marketsell, plus every other good reason Buffet had when he sold the bottom. Ah, also the recession the world deserves after 11 years of drugging the economy.



cutz said:


> Hey Buddy.
> I'm in the same situation, way short on our index. Friday's US melt up is making for a nervous weekend.
> What's your thinking behind hedging your short position. Depending on the correlation between the short EFT and potential longs the same outcome could have been achieved by a lesser short exposure.



Nah, I wanted to be net short big time. The hedge will be tiny just because I expect value stocks to hugely outperform growth stocks - but am not excluding that both might lose. Just growth stocks will lose more than value stocks in that case. ASX offers very little in terms of exotic ETFs though, closest I could find to spread exposure to value-ish stocks is VVLU. Might just end up selecting 2-3 mid-large caps with low p/e (actual) exposed to resources / consumer goods. 



frugal.rock said:


> GEAR is an etf.
> So is OOO.



Yeah but what does it have to do with my strategy? I am looking to cherrypick VALUE freaking stocks to slightly hedge my net short, not for general bloody exposure to Aus stocks.


----------



## qldfrog (7 June 2020)

derangedlawyer said:


> What do you mean "gear"?



ASX long ETF
GEAR


----------



## finicky (7 June 2020)

Who wants to help a lawyer?


----------



## derangedlawyer (7 June 2020)

GEAR's top 10 holdings are currently 
CSL Ltd 9.4%
Commonwealth Bank of Australia 7.4%
BHP Group Ltd 6.4%
Westpac Banking Corp 3.8%
Australia & New Zealand Bankin 3.3%
National Australia Bank Ltd 3.3%
Woolworths Group Ltd 3.2%
Wesfarmers Ltd 2.9%
Telstra Corp Ltd 2.4%
Transurban Group 2.4%
Whilst some of those could be considered value stocks (e.g. relatively low p/e, some dividend yield, etc) I would say this fund mostly provides a general exposure to Australian equity market, with a focus on Financials (26.4%),Materials (19.1%), Healthcare (13.5%) and Industrials (8.2%).


----------



## derangedlawyer (7 June 2020)

VVLU, OTOH:
https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/vvlu
https://api.vanguard.com/rs/gre/gls/1.3.0/documents/16188/au
Top holdings: 1. Kraft Heinz Co.2. Biogen Inc.3. HP Inc.4. Cigna Corp.5. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.6. CVS Health Corp.7. Valero Energy Corp.8. Micron Technology Inc.9. AT&T Inc.10. T-Mobile US Inc.


----------



## gartley (7 June 2020)

Good luck with that, I have been looking to do likewise with US based ETF's, but have not done so yet. Market  is moving up strongly and although certain technicals suggest there is a possibility for an upcoming reversal,  I have absolutely no confimation  or green light yet with the systems I use, so hanging tight until that happens IF it happens. Certain of the cycles I look at have met and even exceeded their projections but other have not.
This reminds me a little of 2009 to 2011 when so many where short. This time I think it's a bit different as the current rallies IMO are just part of the top buiding process of the bull market that started in 2009 rather than a new bull...


----------



## frugal.rock (7 June 2020)

finicky said:


> Who wants to help a lawyer?



Occasionally you need one? 



frugal.rock said:


> GEAR is an etf.
> 
> So is OOO.






derangedlawyer said:


> Yeah but what does it have to do with my strategy? I am looking to cherrypick VALUE freaking stocks to slightly hedge my net short, not for general bloody exposure to Aus stocks.



It sounds like you are asking for advice. 
Best you speak to a financial advisor licensed to give advice.
We only offer speculation, innuendo and heresay on ASF.

Nothing on ASF is to be taken as financial advice or investment recommendations.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 June 2020)

finicky said:


> Who wants to help a lawyer?




Lawyer?

Why?


----------



## derangedlawyer (10 June 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Occasionally you need one?
> It sounds like you are asking for advice.
> Best you speak to a financial advisor licensed to give advice.
> We only offer speculation, innuendo and heresay on ASF.
> Nothing on ASF is to be taken as financial advice or investment recommendations.




The fact someone has a low post count doesn't mean you need to be condescendent.


----------



## derangedlawyer (10 June 2020)

gartley said:


> Good luck with that, I have been looking to do likewise with US based ETF's, but have not done so yet. Market  is moving up strongly and although certain technicals suggest there is a possibility for an upcoming reversal,  I have absolutely no confimation  or green light yet with the systems I use, so hanging tight until that happens IF it happens. Certain of the cycles I look at have met and even exceeded their projections but other have not.
> This reminds me a little of 2009 to 2011 when so many where short. This time I think it's a bit different as the current rallies IMO are just part of the top buiding process of the bull market that started in 2009 rather than a new bull...




I do acknowledge QE effect is not to be underestimated. I kinda agree with McClellan's #gobsofbreath theory to explain contiuous bullish drive which make an overbought market keep going up.
However after having weighted all parameters, I am still of the opinion betting on a significant correction is a move with asymmetrical RR and limited downside potential. 
Therefore.


----------



## frugal.rock (10 June 2020)

derangedlawyer said:


> The fact someone has a low post count doesn't mean you need to be condescendent.



Sorry if that is the way you took it.
Hard to put context into text sometimes.
Am like a bear with a sore head trying to quit smoking...

Either way, 
It's a throwaway line to stop the gimmees expecting advice. 
As a lawyer though, you would know that I guess? 
Just testing the level of derangement...


----------



## gartley (11 June 2020)

derangedlawyer said:


> I do acknowledge QE effect is not to be underestimated. I kinda agree with McClellan's #gobsofbreath theory to explain contiuous bullish drive which make an overbought market keep going up.
> However after having weighted all parameters, I am still of the opinion betting on a significant correction is a move with asymmetrical RR and limited downside potential.
> Therefore.




Agreed, no doubt the correction has aleady started but at this stage I doubt it will carry back down to lows on this corrective leg down, but a signficant correction nevertheless. Given we have outstanding projections for higher prices, would not surprise the correction lasts for next 2 months and tries for another leg up before elections.


----------



## tech/a (12 June 2020)

Reality seems to have hit the USA.


----------



## wayneL (12 June 2020)

tech/a said:


> Reality seems to have hit the USA.


----------



## tech/a (12 June 2020)

What then is it connected to.

Perhaps it’s a case of selective connection
When it suits the pundits.

I’ve noticed that it doesn’t matter how you view anything in life
There will always be those who think at 180 degrees to you.
Your opinion is only valid to those in your 180 degrees!


----------



## wayneL (12 June 2020)

tech/a said:


> What then is it connected to.
> 
> Perhaps it’s a case of selective connection
> When it suits the pundits.
> ...



I think Mr Portnoy proves your point splendidly


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> I think Mr Portnoy proves your point splendidly



Yes, there is a lot of it about.

gg


----------



## investtrader (10 December 2020)

Wonder how the big short went? Hope there was a stop.


----------



## finicky (18 April 2021)

derangedlawyer said:


> Went net short on US equities on 5th June (BBUS @ 2.65aud). Size: big.
> I might have timed the market correctly by the looks of it




I shouldn't do this


----------



## gartley (18 April 2021)

Everyone makes mistakes.....
Also wrong vehicle for long term hold
Having said that don't forget those who don't get the timing right when it finally gives and keep holding on, which will be most pundits. The bears will have their time soon


----------



## pavilion103 (1 June 2022)

People talk about the fees eroding profits. Can anyone give an idea of how much of an impact this has? It would be good to get a quantifiable understanding of this.


----------



## pavilion103 (1 June 2022)

Also why does the chart a few posts back have the BBUS around $1 but the current BBUS chart Is showing an all time low of just over $8?

Was some sort of adjustment made??


----------



## finicky (1 June 2022)

@pavilion103   There was a 1 for 10 Unit consolidation.


----------



## divs4ever (1 June 2022)

pavilion103 said:


> Also why does the chart a few posts back have the BBUS around $1 but the current BBUS chart Is showing an all time low of just over $8?
> 
> Was some sort of adjustment made??



 my last BBUS buy was March 2020 @ $4.33  , as finicky points out  once the share price  dropped below $1 ( briefly ) they suspended trading  and did the share consolidation ( as per finicky's post )

so yes an adjustment has been made 

 PS this is a good lesson elsewhere as well  , share-consolidations  are popular  among stocks  that have had massive price falls ( some even turn 100 shares into 1 new share )


----------



## pavilion103 (1 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> my last BBUS buy was March 2020 @ $4.33  , as finicky points out  once the share price  dropped below $1 ( briefly ) they suspended trading  and did the share consolidation ( as per finicky's post )
> 
> so yes an adjustment has been made
> 
> PS this is a good lesson elsewhere as well  , share-consolidations  are popular  among stocks  that have had massive price falls ( some even turn 100 shares into 1 new share )



Pardon my ignorance but what is the implication of a share consolidation? What happens to someone holding?

I’m having a bit of a look into this at the moment because of where the market is at. It seems like there is quite a good risk to reward at the moment. I’m also looking at the BBOZ.

I have heard people talking about the implications of the built-in fees from the ETF eroding profits over time. Does anyone have any information on this? And could anyone quantify what this would look like?


----------



## pavilion103 (1 June 2022)

My only venture previously into ETF was oil (OOO), I bought $10,000 two years ago @$2.90 and today is at around $9.

I sold half of it for profit already. Still holding $5,000.

Everyone was cautioning me against this at the time but it worked out really well. I’m trying to work out if these ETFs are a good way to enter high risk to reward scenarios and hold them medium-term.

I realise that this is not the conventional way that people use these ETFs but I can see potential in certain scenarios.


----------



## pavilion103 (1 July 2022)

Why did BBUS go down 8.5% today when the market didn’t move against it in the US?


----------



## divs4ever (1 July 2022)

it went ex-div ( the div. was a total surprise to me when i spotted yesterday's ann )


----------

