# T/A lost the plot



## coyotte (20 March 2007)

The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!

Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.

That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.

Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".

another lesson
Cheers


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 March 2007)

Coyotte,

TA is a broad subject with much to offer that is quite daunting to say the least. If market participants can free their minds there is much to work with though. 

Prediction is difficult. 
How is the pitchfork going?


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## tech/a (20 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!
> 
> Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.
> 
> ...




Sorry to hear that Coyotte.
Comes with experience.


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## constable (20 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!
> 
> Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.
> 
> ...



Well said!  IMO too much scaremongering by too many panic merchants!!


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## MichaelD (20 March 2007)

Well said, Coyotte (and in fewer words than I would have, too).

It ain't the analysis that makes the money. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that technicians that make money (myself included) do it DESPITE our analysis.


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## >Apocalypto< (20 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!
> 
> Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.
> 
> ...




Coyotte,

That is hitting the nail on the head! It was really becoming depressing reading all the dooms day posts since the sell off and from what I see now it does not look that bad!

Great point about reading and listening to the market and not trying to tell it what to do!


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## the barry (20 March 2007)

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is t/a???


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## tech/a (20 March 2007)

Its a Duck.

And I disagree with the lot of you.(Other than Snake)


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## theasxgorilla (20 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> The last two weeks has bought out some of the worst T/A I've seen for a long time!!!
> 
> Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.
> 
> ...




Coyotte I think you could be right...but I need a few more weeks to be sure


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## ducati916 (20 March 2007)

Isn't that the point of technical analysis, to identify *high probability trades*
Are you trying to tell me now that t/a is all nonsense?

jog on
d998


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## tech/a (20 March 2007)

Well what I see is a sad lack of knowledge in the *application* of Technical Analysis.

Seems that most here have no problems with ANY form of analysis when the market is strongly trending. Soon as it stops trending and enters a corrective phase---all of a sudden everyone is confused or believes analysis is confused or confusing. Well there are many who arent confused or of the opinion that technical analysis has lost the plot.

If you think its all gone haywire then as this market does turn from trending to flat or bearish---*you'll be a lamb to the slaughter.*



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Instead of reading the the market, most of us (self included) have fallen into the trap of prediction.




This is a fault of the trader NOT the analysis.



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> That's one of the drawbacks of hanging around forums --- you can get sucked in and before you know it, your own trading begins to suffer.
> 
> Comes back to one of the golden rules of trading "hold your own counsel".




Again the fault of the trader. Inability to have confidence in their own analysis---*lack of discipline,lack of plan,lack of ability to accept views without influencing their opinion or plan.*

Analysis is simply collation of information available at the time and *applied* in the timeframe you are trading/analysing.The same analysis could well be* applied differently in different timeframes!*

What Ive seen is analysis which presents "What ifs"---thats all you can ask analysis to do!

Those who expect analysis to be definative,exact and applicable to ALL timeframes---*just dont understand the application of analysis*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> but I need a few more weeks to be sure




Either your analysis tells you that it will take a few weeks to verify the analysis---or---you've given up and have no idea. No offence just observation of statement.



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> that is hitting the nail on the head! it was really becoming depressing reading all the dooms day posts since the sell off and from what i see now it does not look that bad!




Again a bullish bias.You cant tell me that the market action is telling you at this point that all is back to status quo? Again your looking at the analysis as DEFINATIVE when its simply "What if" this *COULD* )according to the *AVAILABLE* analysis *AT THE TIME )* occur



			
				Trade_It said:
			
		

> Great point about reading and listening to the market and not trying to tell it what to do!




Ive seen absolutely no evidence of this in ANY analysis presented. The above statement is the interpretation of those looking at the analysis.The analysis is just presented in its form.

There is a *SERIOUS* lack of ability in Application,understanding of structure/application in Timeframes,prove/disprove in the application of analysis.

You'll find the fault in the practitioner NOT the analysis.


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## Atomic5 (20 March 2007)

I had already posted on another thread that I thought the likelihood of a rally until late April was a possibility, but for political and other reasons. I am not a tecnical trader so I didnt call any top.

Then seeing those assumptions somewhat translated or concorded by a technical view/chart analysis by Tech/A was really interesting. I have since read other historical-data analysts and brokers express a similar point of view using varied other reasons to support the idea.

Seeing as the ASX is at 5,919.20 today, the new top estimate may be in fact be realisable. Make up your own minds on this though, and the chart unfortunately can't be read to tell us when.

Even if you don't use charts, subconsciously you process your interpretations of energy, momentum and market pysychology and you are equally at risk from the elements of chaos that the charts cannot predict, such as: a Greenspan statement, the release of data, a rate rise, strikes, other political events, war, natural disaster, or even the non-discovery of resources after drilling (watchout WMT   ) etc. 

With Forums though, like most people I just have to watch out that it is not merely wishful thinking, or peer brainwashing.  

.... And to the nutter that linked a .jpg of a womans naked bottom to the desktop link of my graphics programme ....    ?!


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## theasxgorilla (20 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Well what I see is a sad lack of knowledge in the *application* of Technical Analysis.




You could be right...yet the undertone of Coyottes post is psychology.


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## theasxgorilla (20 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Then seeing those assumptions somewhat translated or concorded by a technical view/chart analysis by Tech/A was really interesting. I have since read other historical-data analysts and brokers express a similar point of view using varied other reasons to support the idea.




More information is not always better and the market does not respond to a concensus of opinion it responds to buy, sell, what price, how much.  It is this activity that T/A attempts to observe and measure.  Elliott Wave counting is unique, it attempts to look forward.  I've aluded to it before and I'll alude to it again: *because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.* 

Key question for an Elliott Wave practitioner: "so, based on this analysis, what trades are you currently making?".

This should tell you all you need to know to get your psychology back on an even keel.


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## Atomic5 (20 March 2007)

Gorilla I think you know I trust the market like I trust the USA - I don't, not at all.


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## tech/a (20 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Key question for an Elliott Wave practitioner: "so, based on this analysis, what trades are you currently making?".




Unless your trading the ASX 200 none based upon THIS analysis.

Each stock would be taken on its individual analysis.
However currently based on the analysis you have,that this is a corrective phase until proven otherwise---you'd be looking for the best opportunity short setups.
ABS maybe of interest.---as an example.


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## Dr Doom (20 March 2007)

Certainly a lot of flip flopping going on, some saying we won't see 6000 for a long time, then others hinting that maybe a new high maybe in sight, then others advise to short in the meantime. If only the charts could tell me what to do


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## Kauri (20 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> More information is not always better and the market does not respond to a concensus of opinion it responds to buy, sell, what price, how much. It is this activity that T/A attempts to observe and measure. Elliott Wave counting is unique, it attempts to look forward. I've aluded to it before and I'll alude to it again: *because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.*
> 
> Key question for an Elliott Wave practitioner: "so, based on this analysis, what trades are you currently making?".
> 
> This should tell you all you need to know to get your psychology back on an even keel.




   All analysis attempts to look forward, how many people quote a 200 day MA and say that the price will rebound from it, or Stochs are oversold or RSI is oversold, and the price will correct from these levels, how many use patterns like flags or triangles to predict the price will move in a certain direction, how many use fundementals to say that a company is undervalued and hence a buy as the price will move to more realistic levels?? I don't think I have met anyone who invests/trades on the markets who buys long unless they believe that the price will move up according to their particular analysis technique.... *because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.* 
   As for E/W, yes it also can be used for prediction, however the best way I have found to incorporate it into my trading is to identify the probable position I am in in the trend. As such the first downleg in the current correction was tradable short, the following correction provided some quick long trades, but the subsequent dip and current rally over the past week could go anywhere (I have three possibilities on my chart but I am sure there are others), my basic E/W gives several current possibile predictions, but for mine not tradable until the trend asserts itself one way or the other. When it will happen, why it will happen, and in which direction will it go, I don't know and don't care, but when it happens I will be ready, until then not being in the market is as much about trading as being in it. Whilst I am waiting there are still good trades available in FX, Gold etc...


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## doctorj (20 March 2007)

I made note of something similar in another thread - users of T/A seem to leave the theory of prove/disprove very quickly in downward markets and look to predict the future.

I believe its a symptom of the type of traders that tend to practice T/A.  They are often inexperienced, highly leveraged and/or trading with all their eggs in the one basket.  This works great when the market trends strongly with the bulls, but these types of people tend to get disproportionately hurt during a retrace or even when things start to get choppy.


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## tech/a (20 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Certainly a lot of flip flopping going on, some saying we won't see 6000 for a long time, then others hinting that maybe a new high maybe in sight, then others advise to short in the meantime. If only the charts could tell me what to do




They do.
All you need to know is how you apply it.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> All analysis attempts to look forward, how many people quote a 200 day MA and say that the price will rebound from it, or Stochs are oversold or RSI is oversold, and the price will correct from these levels, how many use patterns like flags or triangles to predict the price will move in a certain direction, how many use fundementals to say that a company is undervalued and hence a buy as the price will move to more realistic levels?? I don't think I have met anyone who invests/trades on the markets who buys long unless they believe that the price will move up according to their particular analysis technique.... *because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.*
> As for E/W, yes it also can be used for prediction, however the best way I have found to incorporate it into my trading is to identify the probable position I am in in the trend. As such the first downleg in the current correction was tradable short, the following correction provided some quick long trades, but the subsequent dip and current rally over the past week could go anywhere (I have three possibilities on my chart but I am sure there are others), my basic E/W gives several current possibile predictions, but for mine not tradable until the trend asserts itself one way or the other. When it will happen, why it will happen, and in which direction will it go, I don't know and don't care, but when it happens I will be ready, until then not being in the market is as much about trading as being in it. Whilst I am waiting there are still good trades available in FX, Gold etc...




Nice post Kauri


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Well said, Coyotte (and in fewer words than I would have, too).
> 
> It ain't the analysis that makes the money. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that technicians that make money (myself included) do it DESPITE our analysis.




Michael,

This is true, and is the point to be understood.  
However, going beyond Guppy, Wilson, and Tharp is paramount. Nothing wrong with the aformentioned but there are some TA heavy weights worth exploring that may make one a bit more money. Opportunity needs to be understood. Without TA how can it be quantified etc..? Just like FA how can people build dreams of hope?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 March 2007)

Atomic5,



> I had already posted on another thread that I thought the likelihood of a rally until late April was a possibility, but for political and other reasons.



Political analysis  



> I am not a tecnical trader so I didnt call any top.



Most TA advocates can't call tops.



> Then seeing those assumptions somewhat translated or concorded by a technical view/chart analysis by Tech/A was really interesting. I have since read other historical-data analysts and brokers express a similar point of view using varied other reasons to support the idea.
> 
> Seeing as the ASX is at 5,919.20 today, the new top estimate may be in fact be realisable. Make up your own minds on this though, and the chart unfortunately can't be read to tell us when.



An important aspect to understand using simple TA.



> Even if you don't use charts, subconsciously you process your interpretations of energy, momentum and market pysychology and you are equally at risk from the elements of chaos that the charts cannot predict, such as: a Greenspan statement, the release of data, a rate rise, strikes, other political events, war, natural disaster, or even the non-discovery of resources after drilling (watchout WMT   ) etc.




It's about understanding the likelihood of a move and preparing for any outcome, though directional bias could taint the analysis just like a river.



> With Forums though, like most people I just have to watch out that it is not merely wishful thinking, or peer brainwashing.



An understanding of TA may help here.


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## coyotte (21 March 2007)

Had to get my head together and get back to basics!

This is what I always thought T/A was about --- no prediction in this analysis just if A or if B happens then this is the probable result.


Apart from a Point Chart, you can't get much closer to price than a P&F Chart.
Though not in the style of Du Plessis, it will do for this exercise.

Perc Box size with a 3 BOX reversal of the XJO  

Currently:

Long: Double P&F TOP needed at the 6000 box and a X in the 6100 box

Short: Double P&F BOTTOM needed at the 4900 box and a O in 4850 box 

Well above the P&F UP trend line -- under P&F rules a SHORT should NOT be initiated at this point.

Any new DOUBLE  P&F TOPS or BOTTOMS during any advance/decline would overule the present TOPS and BOTTOMS.

Cheers.


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## tech/a (21 March 2007)

Coyotte.

If your into Point and figure you may wish to track down the publication by *Michael Burke.
"Three Point Reversal Method of Point and Figure Construction and Formations."*
Its very rare Published by Chartcraft New Rochelle New York.

An excellent work.

Why have you chosen a 50 point box size?
You will have completely different analysis with a 5 or 10 point box size.


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## coyotte (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Coyotte.
> 
> Why have you chosen a 50 point box size?
> You will have completely different analysis with a 5 or 10 point box size.




Because it's a Doyle/Craftchart Style.

Cheers


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## Sean K (21 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Had to get my head together and get back to basics!
> 
> This is what I always thought T/A was about --- no prediction in this analysis just if A or if B happens then this is the probable result.



If A happens then B will probably happen.

Is this not a prediction?   

I'm confused coyotte. I thought you were arguing that T/A was not about predicting? Am I reading this wrong?? 

Sorry, if I've missed the plot here, it's early.


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## coyotte (21 March 2007)

Reading TOO much into it 

Cheers


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## tech/a (21 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Because it's a Doyle/Craftchart Style.
> 
> Cheers




Which means?

3 box reversal puts it at 150 points a plot.

Like using a 200 M/A for trading decisions.
Hardly indicative of whats happening in the near term.
But does confirm that longer term---the Bullish view is still confirmed.
All longer term analysis is in sync with this view.

Like Kennas I'm not understanding your point here.
On the one hand your suggesting analysis has lost the plot---yet confirm the analysis in the longer timeframe (using point and figure as the chosen technical tool)---which no one here is suggesting is any different to the analysis which has been posted here.


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## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

Techies, as confused as ever!

jog on
d998


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## motorway (21 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Had to get my head together and get back to basics!
> 
> This is what I always thought T/A was about --- no prediction in this analysis just if A or if B happens then this is the probable result.
> 
> ...




ChartCraft method was developed for USA markets and End of day data using Hi and low..

The ChartCraft material is good to read... However I think Box sizes maybe do not translate as well to Australian markets (They should be smaller... But then Chartcraft uses the large box size as an added filter to keep you out of 
the less active markets).

I would imagine If we had more context on your chart XJO would be well above the bullish support line, maybe pressing up on a bullish resistance line?

You have a potential High pole there.. 

Time does not move a P&F chart only Market action.

The chart will speed up and slow down... The top of the pole could have been a consolidation point... Any reversal off such an uncorrected spike.

Is a stop look and listen point.

If the pole retraces 50% Then that is a sign of weakness.

On a chartcraft scaled chart... The large box sizes and reversal.

Make it at the very best a longish medium term chart..

The chart does emphasize an aspect of our mkt Vs USA.

On P&F charts I have seen Our mkt has a very narrow top not much work or activity.
USA mkts have much more activity at the top more backing and filling.

Sideways is not time ... It is (esp on these charts) distribution.

From P&F charts XJO got overbought... NASDAQ etc had real distribution
preceding the recent weakness..


motorway


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## tech/a (21 March 2007)

Ducster.

Ive noticed that there is a least one fundie who suffers from valuation confusion.

*IE*
Various analysis suggests to the fundie that the stock is undervalued---so he buys.
stock/stocks fall a FURTHER 50% +.

*Stones in glass houses comes to mind.*

Like you an experienced fundamentalist---there is *NO* confusion amongst seasoned Technical Practitioners.


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## motorway (21 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> If A happens then B will probably happen.
> 
> Is this not a prediction?
> 
> ...





Anticipation Vs prediction...

With anticpation I get into a position ahead of time..

On the tennis Court I am ready already for that back hand..
Moving left I anticipate right... It goes down to go up.. But when it is on tip toe there is little ability to jump higher... Anticipation putting oneself in a favourable position.. The opposite of shutting ones eyes and gambling ..

Prediction is dropping out of the flow deciding that he has played the back hand every third shot.... And disregarding everything else.. gambling all on that happening...

Anticipation Vs Prediction

dancing Vs Wrestling

going with the flow in an insightful way
or trying to force the issue

Now sometimes People mix these meanings up..
And mean one while they say the other..

motorway


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## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

*tech/a*

You techies are fooling me then.
What happened to the *high probability* etc?

Technical analysis is a 50/50 coin toss, managed via stoplosses [or other]
And that is what is coming across.

jog on
d998


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## coyotte (21 March 2007)

The original post in this thread was directed at (SELF INCLUDED) at the posts that had been appearing over the preceding fortnight STATING  that the XJO was in a EW corrective move by posters who have very limited experience in this school -- some even blatantly overiding the views and advice of those who do have the qualification  of experience in this field.

Even having the naivety to be predicting prices under EW analysis and the STATEMENT that this is a correction without any mention of possible counter views from the schools that they are familiar with .

The P&F chart is simply another school --- am not advacoting that it is the "holy grail" and as with all methods there are other schools contained within P&F   eg: DuPlessis .


Even the old stand by 10/40 weekly (another school) has shown throughout this period that the XJO was still in a Bullish Stage .

What amazed me in all this was no one was seriously challenged .

I,m not actually saying  the methods had lost the plot --- BUT some of the practitioners certainly appear to have 

Cheers


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## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

> I,m not actually saying the methods had lost the plot --- BUT some of the practitioners certainly appear to have




Ok I get it now, T/A is still valid, it's simply the practitioners that are challenged.

jog on
d998


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## tech/a (21 March 2007)

Duc

as with all analysis and in most phases of life---YES.


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## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

*tech/a*

And that's where we fundamentally disagree. Analysis is predictive. Further, when the analyst is talented the timing will be reasonably close.

jog on
d998


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## tech/a (21 March 2007)

Well that could be argued with just about anything.

(1) If I do this then I will drive a ball 250 meters down a fairway.
(2) If I do that I will Fly this plane from point A to B.

Analyse by Technical,Fundamental,Throwing darts,by doing both this and that this is likely to occur.

In pretty well all cases the result will GENERALLY determinated by the ability of the practitioner.
Some better/more experienced/or talented than others.

Cant see a problem its simply life in motion is it not?


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## motorway (21 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> The original post in this thread was directed at (SELF INCLUDED) at the posts that had been appearing over the preceding fortnight STATING  that the XJO was in a EW corrective move by posters who have very limited experience in this school -- some even blatantly overiding the views and advice of those who do have the qualification  of experience in this field.
> 
> Even having the naivety to be predicting prices under EW analysis and the STATEMENT that this is a correction without any mention of possible counter views from the schools that they are familiar with .
> 
> ...





P&F is P&F

Chartcraft is well known

But did not invent P&F or three box reversal charts even..

There recommened box sizes

Do not work on our markets or stocks

With $100 stocks Chartcraft Box size is 2%

With stocks at $5 it is 10%  That means 30% for the reversal

It is almost a screen to only keep you in $100 stocks

There are good reasons for this with USA mkts..

Why so big a box size ?

This gets to the core of what a P&F is charted in and the nature of time..

P&F at it's purest is a timeless chart with out time constraint or deformation.

IF you are only going to use end of day data
Then to make it real P&F the box size has to be such that intra day reversals are not a factor... If there are No intra day reversals that would trigger a posting to the chart.. Then the chart even using end of day data is timeless
and without constraint and deformation.. Only it is at a very low resolution

miles above the action...

chartcraft box size for BHP is $1 that means $3 for the reversal ..

motorway


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## theasxgorilla (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Like you an experienced fundamentalist---there is *NO* confusion amongst seasoned Technical Practitioners.




As an aside, the only _practitioners_ I know of who are actually making money in THIS market are using hrly, 15-min and 5-min charts.


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## Dr Doom (21 March 2007)

Some questions for the seasoned technical practitioners -

Is your portfolio balance today greater than or less than that on 27 February 2007 (in percentage terms)?

and

Based on TA, how do you intend to invest/trade the next 3 weeks (no fence sitting now  )?


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## Kimosabi (21 March 2007)

I don't there is anything wrong with anyones Technical Analysis.

The problem is that the market has thrown the Logic and Common Sense rule book out the window, which makes technical analysis that much more difficult because Technical Analysis doesn't factor in 'MADNESS'.

Now of course, in the not to distant future, many of us suspect this is all going to come unstuck in a very big way.  But saying this, it's very hard to sit on the sidelines while you see stocks like FMG surge past $20 and the only Iron Ore they have exported has been in the Suitcase of some Executive flying to China and Japan.

The Volcano has started rumbling, and we know an eruption could happen at any moment but people are still jumping on the volcano to have a look.

Who cares about Technical Analysis, just jump in boots and all because everyone else is...


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## MichaelD (21 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Some questions for the seasoned technical practitioners -
> 
> Is your portfolio balance today greater than or less than that on 27 February 2007 (in percentage terms)?
> 
> ...



Complex questions.

1. Based on Open Equity valuation at close yesterday (which isn't my favoured way of valuing my portfolio - Total Reduced Equity is, but most people like to compare Open Equities) - my portfolio is higher in value by about 1.5% and will likely be even higher at today's close.

2. I intend to invest/trade exactly according to my plans. I have no view on which way the markets are going. I will merely follow where they go. My plans do not require me to form such a view. If I receive entry or exit signals from my systems, I will take them, be they long or short signals.


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## coyotte (21 March 2007)

Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Some questions for the seasoned technical practitioners -
> 
> Is your portfolio balance today greater than or less than that on 27 February 2007 (in percentage terms)?.
> 
> ...





Closed all positions, once XJO exceed 6000 -- prior 27/2 (except BLG)

Since -- 
BLG : Long : Closed :  profit.

SUN : Short : Closed : even --- stuck with rights @ a loss

WOR : Short : Closed : profit --- was chasing gap 

ALL : Short : Closed : loss (@stop)------ Eq-Tri 

Current :

ZFX : Short : Open -- Stop @ 17.10+ --- possible dec/tri .--- below CB long level

ALL : Long : Open --Stop @ Rising T/L 16.06 --- As/Tri and possible Straddle Trade.  --- possible EW W5

WOR : Long : Open -- Stop @ variable ATR method (26.00 atm) --- ATR system selection.

See how they go.

Cheers


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## Atomic5 (21 March 2007)

Kimosabi said:
			
		

> I don't there is anything wrong with anyones Technical Analysis.
> 
> The problem is that the market has thrown the Logic and Common Sense rule book out the window, which makes technical analysis that much more difficult because Technical Analysis doesn't factor in 'MADNESS'.
> 
> ...





Last year when the market took it's big time leap into the void end of April, if you looked back through articles from the previous week, everyone was yelling to get out. 

But in the day immediately prior to the drop, the market rallied as much as it could; sheer verticle spikes everywhere: one last final all out binge. 

Its like anything that is alive that resists death, and it would probably be more recognisable if it wasn't so artificially manipulated. There's your madness.


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## coyotte (21 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Last year when the market took it's big time leap into the void end of April, if you looked back through articles from the previous week, everyone was yelling to get out.
> 
> But in the day immediately prior to the drop, the market rallied as much as it could; sheer verticle spikes everywhere: one last final all out binge.
> 
> Its like anything that is alive that resists death, and it would probably be more recognisable if it wasn't so artificially manipulated. There's your madness.




Bit Harsh!

Just overlay the LT trend line with ST trend lines and it stands out like dog b*lls where Traders Activity is/has been ---- the Long Term trends are usually maintained --  long term investors are still maintaining their long term profit --- all thats going on is traders are pushing the SP up to a  short term level --- it's your choice to participate in the short term move or not.



Cheers


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## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

Kimosabi said:
			
		

> I don't there is anything wrong with anyones Technical Analysis.
> 
> The problem is that the market has thrown the Logic and Common Sense rule book out the window, which makes technical analysis that much more difficult because Technical Analysis doesn't factor in 'MADNESS'.
> 
> ...





Interesting.
Normally claims are made for T/A being exactly the opposite; viz. you can read the sentiment [psychology] of the crowd. [see tech/a posts as an example]

So now T/A is a waste of time for reading, interpretating, analyzing market sentiment [psychology]?

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (21 March 2007)

Footnote : post 45

Just closed WOR @ 75% retracement --- in profit

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2007)

*Same old Same old.

Boring.*
Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.


----------



## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Same old Same old.
> 
> Boring.*
> Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.




Actually it's not. It's the complete opposite.
Normally there would be endless posts on the predictive power of T/A viz. high probability trades.

There would be endless posts on the ability of T/A to tease out and analyze the changing sentiment of the herd at the earliest moments.

What we have on this thread are two [unrelated?] posters that have alluded to the failure of T/A in the last 2week period of high volatility.

jog on
d998


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 March 2007)

As an aside (which should really be on the XAO thread, but nobody is looking over there!)...are we expecting negative news out of the US this Wednesday?

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## ducati916 (21 March 2007)

*ASX.G*

The FOMC have been sitting for 2 days and will release tomorrow.
Concensus would seem discount rate to remain @ 5.25%

MS releases earnings BMO

jog on
d998


----------



## Sean K (21 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> As an aside (which should really be on the XAO thread, but nobody is looking over there!)...are we expecting negative news out of the US this Wednesday?
> 
> The ASX Gorilla.



I thought the bad news was going to be housing, but it seems to have blown over. Interest rate seems to be factored in.


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2007)

Duc.

If people here allude to be technical analysts/traders and they cant use that analysis in this market then they arent worth the screen space in which their chart is plotted.

Arguements the same. Is Analysis technical/fundamental/stargazing/newsletters/asking the neighbour---of any worth.

My reply.
If it works for you/anyone then go for it---only you know and I'm not going to teach you.
Duc I wouldnt trade the way you do but hey you seem happy with it.

Same old same old---different packaging.
Has *become* boring---well this thread.


----------



## Dr Doom (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Same old Same old.
> 
> Boring.*
> Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.




No, its prove if the _seasoned technical traders_ are or have made a profit in the current market (since 27 Feb specifically) using TA - don't be shy Tech/a, how have you faired?.

Some (Coyote) have provided some interesting insights, much appreciated.


----------



## coyotte (21 March 2007)

Sorry Tech

Posts 45/49 where simply in reply to post 42 --- with TA reasons explained.

Bit more informative than your explanation of your BHP methods with your long term portfolio.


Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Footnote : post 45
> 
> Just closed WOR @ 75% retracement --- in profit
> 
> Cheers




Good stuff Coyotte! Where did you enter so I can track the trade? 



> Same old Same old.
> 
> Boring.
> Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.




Tech,
Would you prefer not to see who is using TA and the results that come from it? Sure it can't be validated, but.......


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Has *become* boring---well this thread.




I disagree Tech, it has potential.


----------



## coyotte (21 March 2007)

WOR:

"Jim Berg's  ATR system" trigger was on Fri 16/3 --- Entry was on Mon 19/3 below 27.36, was @ 27.15

Trade is still a System goer -- but used a traders discretion @ the 75% level --- can always re-enter.

If U want a chart can post it later tonight --- with analysis.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2007)

*Doom * my portfolio trading (well one of them is public record and has been for 4 yrs).
I dont track any of the three on a daily basis.They are so far in open equity its of little importance---

*Coyotte*

Dont hold BHP that was a out of the blue type what if.

I post enough crap on forums I dont need copious hrs spent proving I can turn a profit or analyse technically.

So I'll re phrase it.

This has become boring to the duck.
Its just not going anywhere.

No I dont care what other people make or lose trading---they could be telling fibbs.

Stick up your trading for 12 mths like a few of us have then if interested I may have a look.
I may not even be bored with what those people post either.

Back to the Pond before flying North!!


----------



## wayneL (21 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> As an aside, the only _practitioners_ I know of who are actually making money in THIS market are using hrly, 15-min and 5-min charts.



That's what I've been doing for the last 2.5 years.

Basically swing analysis the daily, but trade signals off intraday 30min chart... works great!

...basically trend trading the lower time frame.


----------



## MichaelD (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Doom * my portfolio trading (well one of them is public record and has been for 4 yrs).
> I dont track any of the three on a daily basis.They are so far in open equity its of little importance---



Didn't you describe them as "haemmorhaging money" in another thread?


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2007)

Yeh sure did,when the fall came they "haemmorhaged" alright.
5% in a few days on 3 portfolio's.

You'll note the open equity fell from $403,000 to a miserable $383,000
but has recovered to $385,000 as of Friday.
You'll note the Portfolio composite index has risen a little further this week,but I dont expect that to last.

For those even slightly interested

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000029;p=6

Nice pik below of the portfolio for last 12 mths.Note the correction drawdown relative to the 12 mths trading.

Nice try Michael---dont you just hate Ducks!

Back to the Duck pond.


----------



## Sean K (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Yeh sure did,when the fall came they "haemmorhaged" alright.
> 5% in a few days on 3 portfolio's.
> 
> You'll note the open equity fell from $403,000 to a miserable $383,000
> ...



Your chart looks to be hitting resistance there Daffy. Possibly set for a potential H&S set up.   

Good idea by the way. Wish I had the time to be so organised.....hey....actually I do! .....


----------



## MichaelD (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Yeh sure did,when the fall came they "haemmorhaged" alright.
> 5% in a few days on 3 portfolio's.



It's an interesting choice of word, don't you think? Very emotional. How did it feel to see all that open equity disappear so quickly?


----------



## tech/a (21 March 2007)

*Yes* it got your attention.

Just as the headline "Panic" got a lot of attention there.

*Its my Marketing bent!*
Thanks I'll be sure to keep looking into creative wording,particularly when it gains the attention it so deserves.

*How did it feel.*
Bit like paying off the Wifes Mastercard.
Similar dent to open equity.
No actually paying off the cards worse particularly after Overseas trips,then its more like 87 and after the States a few years ago that was very similar to 1929---Id imagine.(Im an Old Duck (Sorry about the pun) but not that old!!)


----------



## BSD (21 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> How did it feel to see all that open equity disappear so quickly?




From my (90% long) perspective:

1.   Easy come, easy go
2.   Who cares - back to two months ago (wait for a three or five year setback to get a grasp on the fear)
3.   Thank god, finally a shake-out to squeeze the over-leveraged
4.   Excellent bargains coming now from fearful sellers - BHP at $26.40 anyone?

With fundamentals intact these pullbacks are only bad for the overleveraged or excessively greedy


----------



## Rob_ee (21 March 2007)

Tech ... if I may ask ... are you still entering trades on a daily basis on the method you revealed for public scrutiny.

Since you got me into MS (thanks for that) I put it to a little EXTRA use tonight  

I spent the last 4hrs running a test on all qualifiers from the 1st of March (the day after the major fall) and came up with some interesting numbers.

This will of course be somewhat different from your portfolio since its only that short time frame.

Quite fascinating what came out ... HVN was the best winner and BLG the worst loser.

Regards
Rob


----------



## BSD (21 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *How did it feel.*
> Bit like paying off the Wifes Mastercard.
> Similar dent to open equity.




GOLD!!!!!!!!


----------



## theasxgorilla (21 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> It's an interesting choice of word, don't you think? Very emotional. How did it feel to see all that open equity disappear so quickly?




Are we starting a Trading Tribe?


----------



## stoxclimber (21 March 2007)

Anybody who gets super emotional while stock trading or investing is just a bad trader/investor.

That said, in regards to the thread [and others] there have been an overwhelming number of incorrect technical predictions on the direction of the All Ords on these boards since the correction. I don't think its a reflection on the merits of technical analysis but rather on those applying it [although I don't know anything about it myself]. One can look at the threads to see the number of predictions putting the bottom of the All Ords in the 5400 range. Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor [something which i am somewhat knowledgable about].

So, I would take any prediction [technical or fundamental] as at best for entertainment value with the potential to inform you as to general goings on in the market.


----------



## MichaelD (21 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Are we starting a Trading Tribe?



"Everyone gets what they want out of ASF"

   

(Doesn't quite have the same impact as the original, but a more profound statement on trading I have never read as Seykota's original quote.)


----------



## Atomic5 (22 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Atomic5,
> Political analysis




US & EU markets were flat this morning ahead of the Fed. 

However the US Fed just made his announcement (he is truly a god to the US people and now the world) 'to keep rates steady' which was expected, but the surprise was that he did not express his _usual bias to tighten_. 

Markets reacted positively - all green to go. We have more steam.


----------



## Atomic5 (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Bit Harsh!
> Just overlay the LT trend line with ST trend lines and it stands out like dog b*lls where Traders Activity is/has been ---- the Long Term trends are usually maintained --  long term investors are still maintaining their long term profit --- all thats going on is traders are pushing the SP up to a  short term level --- it's your choice to participate in the short term move or not.
> Cheers




Good point. 
Though I wonder what a historical data analyst would find if comparing todays charts with historical charts, from say, before on-line trading. I read one guy who warned about going too far back in order to obtain a technical analysis for contemporary markets.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

BSD said:
			
		

> From my (90% long) perspective:
> 
> 1.   Easy come, easy go
> 2.   Who cares - back to two months ago (wait for a three or five year setback to get a grasp on the fear)




If your still being "squeezed" or allowing yourself to be---in 3-5 yrs-- you should be trading.



> 3.   Thank god, finally a shake-out to squeeze the over-leveraged



Who cares whats that got to do with anything. Like all those letchers waiting for those fat landlords to lose a motza in property.



> 4.   Excellent bargains coming now from fearful sellers - BHP at $26.40 anyone?




Every trade on its merits.Short or long.



> With fundamentals intact these pullbacks are only bad for the overleveraged or excessively greedy




As above



> Tech ... if I may ask ... are you still entering trades on a daily basis on the method you revealed for public scrutiny.




T/T I presume you mean.
Its never been a daily basis.This is a longterm methodology which takes trades when funds are available and a stock is selected from those triggered.
Its rare to have 2 in a month. Often a few months between trades. Sells can and do take years.

Hint.

Testing a longterm method over a few months will not give you accurate records as it will only give you CLOSED positions many will still be open with profit at the time of closing testing so will not be recorded. Best to test over long periods and also view open equity at time of cutting off your testing.



> That said, in regards to the thread [and others] there have been an overwhelming number of incorrect technical predictions on the direction of the All Ords on these boards since the correction.




*Oh I see you want the figures presented hit the day after!!!!!*



> [although I don't know anything about it myself].



This lack of understanding and un educated comment just keeps coming.
What are your veiws on Heart Surgery



> Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor [something which i am somewhat knowledgable about].




Open most posts in the Fundamental section of ASF and all you'll find is speculation about.
(1) Whens the next announcement.
(2) Are the facts presented in the last report accurate??? Bought about by falling prices not rising as expected.---but price SHOULD BE going up.
(3) Copious amounts of asking "Respected" posters *ARE YOU STILL HOLDING*----Translated below.
.
I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing pleeeeze give me some positive feed back as I'm losing badly!



> So, I would take any prediction [technical or fundamental] as at best for entertainment value with the potential to inform you as to general goings on in the market.




And that is the amount of use those who are untrained technically or fundamentally will get out of *BOTH * forms of analysis.

A proficient practitioner in* EITHER * will recognise the points or points of Analysis in *EITHER/BOTH*forms of analysis worth consideration---if any.


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> *Anybody who gets super emotional while stock trading or investing is just a bad trader/investor.*
> 
> That said, in regards to the thread [and others] there have been an overwhelming number of incorrect technical predictions on the direction of the All Ords on these boards since the correction. I don't think its a reflection on the merits of technical analysis but rather on those applying it [although I don't know anything about it myself]. One can look at the threads to see the number of predictions putting the bottom of the All Ords in the 5400 range. *Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor [something which i am somewhat knowledgable about].*
> 
> *So, I would take any prediction [technical or fundamental] as at best for entertainment value with the potential to inform you as to general goings on in the market.*



Always need some light entertainment and a bemusing distraction.

A free population sample to study aspects of the psychology of market participants is thrown in as well.


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Doom * my portfolio trading (well one of them is public record and has been for 4 yrs).
> I dont track any of the three on a daily basis.They are so far in open equity its of little importance---
> 
> *Coyotte*
> ...





Was not referring to the Company.


Whilst undoubtedly TechTrader2 has been successful and will probably continue to be so --- the bit I find strange is:

Your own publicly posted views on TA appears to be that the "Entry" is Secondary to the "Exit"  ---- most I presume would agree with that.


Yet in TT2 --- Yeah I know its only an example, but you do seem to be following its basic rules atm --- you seem to go off in the opposite direction.

Detail is given to the ENTRY Setup.
Followed by a fair Initial Stop.
Then a wishy washy moving average EXIT.

In another recent post you state that with your Long Term Portfolio your Stops are @ 20% loss (presume from high)

Whilst on one hand you condemn MAs and Indicators as lagging -- here in the the most Vital part of the trade you recommend employing either a MA or some loss% picked out the blue.


One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.


Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> One would hardly call this TA --- as i stated it's more BHP.




Can someone help elaborate BHP?


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

Buy -- Hold -- Pray

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Was not referring to the Company.
> 
> 
> Whilst undoubtedly TechTrader2 has been successful and will probably continue to be so --- the bit I find strange is:
> ...




This statement is relative to* SYSTEMS * design. Profit comes from *LONGTERM* systems from the ability to gain high R/R ratios. This is achieved by finding the *BALANCE* between staying in a trade long enough to gain *MULTIPLE R/R* (Reward to Risk Ratios) and not giving back to much during the process.
The 180day M/A of the low is the best I have found so far.I have tried many others--ATR included.Remember *BALANCE * and *SYSTEM* design.



> Yet in TT2 --- Yeah I know its only an example, but you do seem to be following its basic rules atm --- you seem to go off in the opposite direction.




Not following here the SYSTEM as discussed on Reef,doesnt and hasnt changed.



> Detail is given to the ENTRY Setup.
> Followed by a fair Initial Stop.
> Then a wishy washy moving average EXIT.




Again not following its as above and never altered.



> In another recent post you state that with your Long Term Portfolio your Stops are @ 20% loss (presume from high)




Coyotte you really do need to read and understand my posts god knows I try and make them as clear as possible.
*So AGAIN* The system (infact any system will if designed properly) have a set of *NUMBERS* returned during testing. In particular montecarlo testing will give Maximum and Minimum results (Numbers) from the average mean over the test period/systems design and universe chosen.
It is from THESE numbers we know in TechTrader that the *MAXIMUM--- Peak to Valley drawdown * of over 20000 portfolio tests is approx 20% Infact I think its 23% (without checking) if Techtrader *EVER* trades with a maximum peak to Valley drawdown of over the maximum % returned in testing I personally will be stopping trading the system---*I'll exit ALL positions.*

What will be happening is that the system will be entering trading territory not seen during testing---you would be trading *BLIND*.
This is completely seperate to the mechanics of day to day trading and *ONE* of the main reasons you test and have *NUMBERS * to go by.



> Whilst on one hand you condemn MAs and Indicators as lagging -- here in the the most Vital part of the trade you recommend employing either a MA or some loss% picked out the blue.




The above should make thing crystal clear to you.
My comments on M/A's for discretionary trading are as you state---bloody useless---to slow.Most indicators are the same. Your not looking at APPLICATION of technical indicators and most (Possibly not yourself) have no idea of correct APPLICATION (When and how to apply an indicator into their trading.) frustration abounds with *INCORRECT* use,POOR application and incorrect application relative to a vast number of variables. Only experience can and will reward those who spend the time to learn---profit.



> One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.




This statement coyotte my friend only *CONFIRMS* my point.
Read the above you just *DONT SEE IT*
Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and *STILL* honing skills learnt from experience.


----------



## nizar (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> This statement is relative to* SYSTEMS * design. Profit comes from *LONGTERM* systems from the ability to gain high R/R ratios. This is achieved by finding the *BALANCE* between staying in a trade long enough to gain *MULTIPLE R/R* (Reward to Risk Ratios) and not giving back to much during the process.
> The 180day M/A of the low is the best I have found so far.I have tried many others--ATR included.Remember *BALANCE * and *SYSTEM* design.
> 
> 
> ...




One of your best posts tech.
Thanks for sharing.

Just a question: do you look at factors other than drawdown when deciding to exit all positions after concluding that whatever it is that happened is a sign of new trading conditions that were not included in systems testing and design?
(Im assuming if ANYthing falls outside the montecarlo max and mins you would exit, not only drawdown)?
eg. How about if maximum string of losses, as determined by the montercarlo analysis, was, say, 13, and you had 15?
Or how about if biggest loss was $$ (some dollar value) and your system while trading it had a loss >$$ ?


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *MAXIMUM--- Peak to Valley drawdown * of over 20000 portfolio tests is approx 20% Infact I think its 23% (without checking) if Techtrader *EVER* trades with a maximum peak to Valley drawdown of over the maximum % returned in testing I personally will be stopping trading the system---*I'll exit ALL positions.*




So in summary, with the system you describe, in this market, you sit tight until one of several things happens?

1. OE draws down > 23% you close ALL open positions
2. If any open position gets stopped out by the 180 EMA you will exit ONLY that position

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> So in summary, with the system you describe, in this market, you sit tight until one of several things happens?
> 
> 1. OE draws down > 23% you close ALL open positions
> 2. If any open position gets stopped out by the 180 EMA you will exit ONLY that position
> ...



Yes OR
Any open position hits its INITIAL STOP---there are no trailing stops.

All explained in the 100s of pages dedicated to Techtrader on Reefcap.


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.






			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> This statement coyotte my friend only CONFIRMS my point.
> Read the above you just DONT SEE IT
> Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and STILL honing skills learnt from experience.




Yes I DO see it Tech ---- long term you never really got beyond Weinstein --- Probably even worse -- at least his Entry is around a consolidation  breakout (stage 2)

Cheers


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> My comments on M/A's for discretionary trading are as you state---bloody useless---to slow.Most indicators are the same. Your not looking at APPLICATION of technical indicators and most (Possibly not yourself) have no idea of correct APPLICATION (When and how to apply an indicator into their trading.) frustration abounds with *INCORRECT* use,POOR application and incorrect application relative to a vast number of variables. Only experience can and will reward those who spend the time to learn---profit.



Possibly the best point in the post.

Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> One would hardly call this TA --- as I stated it's more BHP.






			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> This statement coyotte my friend only CONFIRMS my point.
> Read the above you just DONT SEE IT
> Its a long long road---Ive been 12 yrs on it and STILL honing skills learnt from experience.






			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Yes I DO see it Tech ---- long term you never really got beyond Weinstein --- Probably even worse -- at least his Entry is around a consolidation  breakout (stage 2)
> 
> Cheers




Oh God.
No wonder I'm bored.
Lookforward to your next 4 yrs results published for public scrutiny.
Enjoy your trading.
I see you have atleast mastered the Aussi pastime of "Cutting down tall poppies"---well even that needs a little work---whats Guppies take on that?
He's had his fair share!



> Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.




So true.
Plus then you need a confluence of opinion.
Something that is seen as.(not by me but most Ive seen commenting on fundamental data)
(1) Price goes down------Already factored into the market before announcement.
(2)Price does basically nothing.----Everyones got their numbers wrong---cant they value a company properly.
(3)Price goes up then down just as fast----profit takers---wow fundies take short term profits!

tech


----------



## ducati916 (22 March 2007)

lesm said:
			
		

> Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.




Incorrect-omundo!

Fundamentals tend to be early, rather than late.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Incorrect-omundo!
> 
> Fundamentals tend to be early, rather than late.
> 
> ...




As evidenced with
CALL
FORD
CTT
CQB
SGTL
EVCI
CHDW


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Incorrect-omundo!
> 
> Fundamentals tend to be early, rather than late.
> 
> ...



Hi Duc,

I beg to differ.

Looks like you took the bait well on that one. Will certainly go fishing this weekend.

I recall that you have actually made a similar statement yourself. Have you changed your mind or view?

Cheers,
Les.


----------



## Frank D (22 March 2007)

People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068

Regards,
Frank Dilernia


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

Frank D said:
			
		

> People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068
> 
> ...




Few words big impact.


----------



## MichaelD (22 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> 1. OE draws down > 23% you close ALL open positions





			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Yes



Tech,

Did you ever actually determine the maximum Open Equity drawdown % for Tech Trader?


----------



## $$Magnet$$ (22 March 2007)

Frank D said:
			
		

> People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068
> 
> ...





Very bemused by all the so called predictions & postings since the correction.  There I was waiting patiently  to accumulate while majority of you were expecting the market to crash.    Been trading 13 yrs so I know how some new traders may be confused by the volatility and their T/A. Here's a tip. Follow price action. Forget about EW or predictive analysis.   Decide if you are a medium term or shorter term holder and use the appropriate charts for your trading. Keep it simple.

Happy trading.   

I would be happy if the market at least make a a new or even a double top and pullback towards the later part of the yr.


----------



## MichaelD (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> ---- long term you never really got beyond Weinstein --- Probably even worse -- at least his Entry is around a consolidation  breakout (stage 2)



Got to admit I'm confused by this point.

Exactly what is wrong about not going beyond Weinstein for a long term trend following system? Long term trend following hasn't changed over the years. Livermore did it before Weinstein.

Three pretty compelling arguments FOR the TechTrader system are;
1. It's got a positive expectancy
2. The entry is better than random entry
3. It beats buy and hold

That's all you need a system (any system over any time frame) to do.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Got to admit I'm confused by this point.
> 
> Exactly what is wrong about not going beyond Weinstein for a long term trend following system? Long term trend following hasn't changed over the years. Livermore did it before Weinstein.
> 
> ...




I agree Michael,
Weinstein's work is quite ok for those wanting to set up end of day systems and still want to work full-time, or the fundamentalist who wants some TA education.

Thoug in the TA world he is only a feather weight.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 March 2007)

$$Magnet$$ said:
			
		

> Very bemused by all the so called predictions & postings since the correction.  There I was waiting patiently  to accumulate while majority of you were expecting the market to crash.    Been trading 13 yrs so I know how some new traders may be confused by the volatility and their T/A. Here's a tip. Follow price action. Forget about EW or predictive analysis.   Decide if you are a medium term or shorter term holder and use the appropriate charts for your trading. Keep it simple.
> 
> Happy trading.
> 
> I would be happy if the market at least make a a new or even a double top and pullback towards the later part of the yr.




I guess we can all learn from YOU. Feel free to notch up some posts and educate.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 March 2007)

lesm said:
			
		

> Possibly the best point in the post.
> 
> Even for those using F/A as the basis for their trading, company financial reports tend to lag the market rather than lead it.



Lagging reports! Simply brilliant Lesm. Now we have the fundamental equivalent to the MACD


----------



## Kauri (22 March 2007)

$$Magnet$$ said:
			
		

> Very bemused by all the so called predictions & postings since the correction.






			
				$$Magnet$$ said:
			
		

> I would be happy if the market at least make a a new or even a double top and pullback towards the later part of the yr.




  Extremely bemused..


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Extremely bemused..




Its price action thats OK.

$$Magnet$$

A post pre correction would give more weight. First post reeks of a past poster cranking up again.No added value just how clever you are.

Go back to Frankies post and look at 9th Feb Post.
Look at the 6063 line CLEARLY on the chart on the 9th Feb at aound the date area that prices fell from 6064.
Pretty damed good analysis way way before time.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 March 2007)

BNB any Ta on this ?
Final wave a,b completing, c to come?


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Got to admit I'm confused by this point.
> 
> Exactly what is wrong about not going beyond Weinstein for a long term trend following system? Long term trend following hasn't changed over the years. Livermore did it before Weinstein.
> 
> ...




Nothing WRONG with this style.

But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.

Surely you wouldn't stand by and watch 20% of profits evaporate on the grounds that the system told me it will recover!

Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you "Profits is your job -- Tax is ours "

Surely a better approach is to take at least some profit on the topping "roll over" -- and buy back in at a lower price --- if wrong, buy back in --what's it cost? -- a bit of brokerage(insurance) --- after all it's not a real physical thing your buying/selling -- it's PRICE.


Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (22 March 2007)

lesm said:
			
		

> Hi Duc,
> 
> I beg to differ.
> 
> ...




Fundamentals will be early.
I doubt very much I would have said any differently in the last couple of years. If you go back beyond that, it's possible I may have, if so I recant.

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

Footnote to P102

If you have been holding any stock long term , that would put you in a position where you should know this stock like the back of your hand ---- that would make that stock ideal for you to S/M term trade at least a portion of it.



Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (22 March 2007)

*tech/a*

That's what I like, a bit of selectivity in the evidence. To those of course you could add the closed positions.

You could also add as discussed on this forum; Gold, Commodities, BHP, RIO, VCR, HSP, etc.

As we have discussed in the past, what constitutes a profit or a loss?
Open profits and losses or closed profits and losses?

I argue closed.
Thus open trades are still open to develop, they may or may not result in a loss. If they result in a profit, then it simply proves my point of being early. If a loss how does it prove your point?

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar (22 March 2007)

Frank D said:
			
		

> People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068
> 
> ...




Worth repeating.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *tech/a*
> 
> That's what I like, a bit of selectivity in the evidence. To those of course you could add the closed positions.
> 
> ...




Duc we have argued this infinitum.

Portfolio valuation if it doesnt include open positions is a cockeyed way of valuing your performance.
2 yrs to go my friend.

If not yes it proves the point that a portfolio with open losses must be considered when valuing your holdings.The NETT result (Profit) will be diluted by those losses until you either take the losses or DIE.---in which case you wont give a rats.

Coyotte


> Or bring in the the costs -- at the most a couple of 100 bucks at the risk of losing 1000s ----- or tax! -- as any good accountant will tell you "Profits is your job -- Tax is ours "
> 
> Surely a better approach is to take at least some profit on the topping "roll over" -- and buy back in at a lower price --- if wrong, buy back in --what's it cost? -- a bit of brokerage(insurance) --- after all it's not a real physical thing your buying/selling -- it's PRICE.




Whenever you wish to demonstrate this on any portfolio you wish realtime for say the next 12 mths (let alone 4yrs) I'm all eyes.
When you attempt to do so you will learn how much you dont know and how little you think you know.

*Try it!----*infact I suggest *ANYONE* try it here on ASF.

Ive stuck my Trading where my *BEAK* is so has duc and Stevo.


----------



## $$Magnet$$ (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Its price action thats OK.
> 
> $$Magnet$$
> 
> ...





Tech/A,

Been watching this board since its inception on and off but never bothered to register to post til now so I am no past poster. :   Are you gonna dictate who should post and what, too.  :   It's less stressful to ignore 'no value' postings you know.  Who cares about correct analysis anyway, someone of out of hundreds have to be right sometimes.   It's the $$$$ each FY that counts.
What's the pt of something being correct if you did nothing beforehand. By now it's too late   BTw, my porfolio is now back to where it was before the correction. 28 longs. Offloaded some, added some.

Congrats Frankie if you didn't doubt your own analysis.


----------



## $$Magnet$$ (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Nothing WRONG with this style.
> 
> But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.
> 
> ...





Good one!


----------



## ducati916 (22 March 2007)

*tech/a*

Which is relevant to the topic.
Fundamentals are *early*. That at times they may be [and often are] TOO EARLY is a moot point and should improve with experience.

jog on
d998


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Duc we have argued this infinitum.
> 
> Portfolio valuation if it doesnt include open positions is a cockeyed way of valuing your performance.
> 2 yrs to go my friend.
> ...




Tech,
Why does everything have to be a slugfest?


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Tech,
> Why does everything have to be a slugfest?




*Snake.*

(1)Its pretty obvious some dont trade.
OR
(2)Some simply analyse
OR
(3)Some dont make consistent profit---anyone can have a winning trade.
OR
(4)Some have no idea about application of analysis---any form of analysis.
OR
(5)A combination of the above.

If they did they wouldnt be making points which clearly point to the above conclusions.
Dont get me wrong some here do consistently make profit and clearly they dont post rubbish.

*Others just dont add to the board at all.*No explaination,no example to support views just parrot fashion,from what they have read.They've never implemented anything with consistency into their trading.
Whats the value of the initial post from $$Magnet$$ ?? Forget this forget that
Ive been doing this for 13 yrs and your all on the wrongside of the trade.
Maybe so but whats the value to the forum in telling all that you've been on the right side 3 weeks after the event.

My post to Coyotte wasnt/isnt a challenge to him or anyone---*its a serious suggestion.*
You'd be suprised what you'd learn if you posted your (or anyone did) trading out in the open. Let me tell you it keeps you honest. Ive had 100s of eyes dissect T/T over 4 yrs each and everyone who have given constructive input or constructive critisism have added to my and many others knowledge.
We/I question what we do and how we do it.

Ive had my fair share of run ins with GANN practitioners.They work like many other on Prove--disprove analysis. But AS YET Ive not seen practical application of the method.Calling 5 or 6 possible dates or points of interest are a far cry from practical application. Show me how you apply the 5 or 6 dates into your trading-----just do it on 6 stocks or 6 times on an index.
That would be adding to the forum. Not to prove you can trade but that the analysis is worth the time and effort to learn and can be APPLIED in realtime trading. 

My view while un-palatable to some generates debate. Hey I learn a lot from these threads---am I the only one?


----------



## stoxclimber (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Oh I see you want the figures presented hit the day after!!!!!*




At what point can one say that the prediction is incorrect? State a date so that, on that date, we can assess whether, for example, your prediction was accurate or not. I was under the impression that when one draws a line on the chart indicating the direction of the underlying asset/index, it was a prediction that the asset or index would follow the direction of that line [which implies a date]. If this understanding was incorrect, please inform me of the date or reasonable date range upon which we can judge the accuracy of your prediction. Upon that date, we can resolve the issue conclusively. 

The same goes for others who made similar predictions. 




> This lack of understanding and un educated comment just keeps coming.
> What are your veiws on Heart Surgery




My knowledge is indeed uneducated. However, what I can understand is that where a person makes a prediction that A is true, and A does not occur, and this happens often enough to make it statisically quite unlikely that it is due to randomness, the analysis is most likely flawed. And that is the case here. 

Is some to all of this due to the lack of skill and experience in those posting the analysis? Undoubtably. But I don't see why you would dispute the point that the analysis posted is incorrect. 

I do have one question for you. You disparage me for criticising technical analysis done by posters on this board without mastering it myself, yet lash out at fundamental analysis yourself. Can I take it that you are quite experienced with fundamental analysis and would be comfortable going over the finer details of a dcf/comp valuation model for an ASX listed company with me? 

I don't see why you feel that I must master technical analysis to criticise posters who make incorrect prediction after incorrect prediction. I wouldn't say that you need to master fundamental analysis before calling a simplistic comparison of P/Es or a grossly optimistic and unfounded revenue forecast incorrect. 

-------

In regards to the open positions versus closed positions for profit/loss in fundamental portfolios:

Firstly, the true profit/loss on a fundamental portfolio can only be determined when the assets are no longer capable of producing free cash flows either now or into the future.

However, if one is trading these assets on a publically traded market then the profit or loss can only truly be said to be that determined by the last traded price of the assets + any cash flows to the asset holder from the asset - the purchase price of the asset.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> At what point can one say that the prediction is incorrect? State a date so that, on that date, we can assess whether, for example, your prediction was accurate or not.




Firstly understand that its not a prediction its a "What if" I and others here have given levels which "Could" and are likely to occur if one or the other points of analysis are proven or Disproven.Markets are dynamic and so is discretionary trading.



> I was under the impression that when one draws a line on the chart indicating the direction of the underlying asset/index, it was a prediction that the asset or index would follow the direction of that line [which implies a date]. If this understanding was incorrect, please inform me of the date or reasonable date range upon which we can judge the accuracy of your prediction. Upon that date, we can resolve the issue conclusively.The same goes for others who made similar predictions.




A line or a price point is simply to be proven or disproven.If a trendline is broken then you have a decision to make if that is a trigger to your trading.
As for time,I personally dont know some here have that capability and given the timeline will also be in a situation of again prove/disprove.Same as Fundamental analysis---when will a company reach the "True" value from a point of percieved under value---will that alter as time goes by? If it does does that make the original analysis wrong? Is fundamental analysis a waste of time then.Should Fundamental analysts never change a buy/sell recommendation or technical analysts select another time and price point just so practioners or followers can clearly define right or wrong?




> My knowledge is indeed uneducated. However, what I can understand is that where a person makes a prediction that A is true, and A does not occur, and this happens often enough to make it statisically quite unlikely that it is due to randomness, the analysis is most likely flawed. And that is the case here.




Well I dont agree.Many here did call very close to the top of this last move,how they took advantage of it or APPLIED it to their trading is only privvy to them and only matters to them.Only they know how they apply it and wether it is to their advantage.Unlike you I have seen Elliot Wave analysis applied in very effective ways. Hence my renewed interest and my own research into the way I will be applying it to my discretionary trading.Ive used it myself with good success---not perfect at times but thats more to do with the practioner (me) than the Analysis method. 



> Is some to all of this due to the lack of skill and experience in those posting the analysis? Undoubtably. But I don't see why you would dispute the point that the analysis posted is incorrect.




If it proves to be incorrect or price action suggests otherwise to the analysis at the time or at a time in the future then you take appropriate action based upon further analysis given the facts now available and so it goes on. The search for finite points of accuracy are futile until proven.Confusing yes but once you understand then very easy.



> I do have one question for you. You disparage me for criticising technical analysis done by posters on this board without mastering it myself, yet lash out at fundamental analysis yourself. Can I take it that you are quite experienced with fundamental analysis and would be comfortable going over the finer details of a dcf/comp valuation model for an ASX listed company with me?




In the end we would have a valuation for a company---it could be right it could be wrong---time would tell. I could as---I have 2 companies of my own and an accountant (in house) who takes care of the nuts and bolts accounting for me.I may not be as susinct as you its not my specialty but I will understand it. I'm no accountant dont profess to be but my chagrin is with those who are clearly readers of announcements trading in short timeframes and basically punting. Not all fundamental traders---as not all technical traders are misled peanuts attempting to make a quick buck.
Regardless of type of analysis the application is the key,being right isnt---not even close.



> I don't see why you feel that I must master technical analysis to criticise posters who make incorrect prediction after incorrect prediction.




Your continued reference to technical analysis as being solely predictive with finite price or time points,shows your level of APPLICATION of analysis.Its not about being right,its about consistent application to in the end profit.



> I wouldn't say that you need to master fundamental analysis before calling a simplistic comparison of P/Es or a grossly optimistic and unfounded revenue forecast incorrect.




How I interpret fundamentals is of no consequence to the market in general.
Duc has proven that. He is no slouch when it come to fundamentals and has found a number of companies in HIS OPINION undervalued. The market didnt---- and at this time dont agree and some are now a full 50% lower in price than his learned "Undervalued" buy price. So just to get back to his "Undervalued" price they have to rise a full 100%. Is he buying more---should he have bought more when the "Bargain" price fell a further 25%? Would you?--Do you?

-------



> In regards to the open positions versus closed positions for profit/loss in fundamental portfolios:




Why just fundamental---why not the valuation of ANY portfolio?



> Firstly, the true profit/loss on a fundamental portfolio can only be determined when the assets are no longer capable of producing free cash flows either now or into the future.




True/agree.



> However, if one is trading these assets on a publically traded market then the profit or loss can only truly be said to be that determined by the last traded price of the assets + any cash flows to the asset holder from the asset - the purchase price of the asset.




True and agree again no arguement.
Add up the pluses deduct the open losses or add the open profits at ANY point in time and there is the Portfolio valuation at THAT time.

tech


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

$$Magnet$$ said:
			
		

> Tech/A,
> 
> Been watching this board since its inception on and off but never bothered to register to post til now so I am no past poster. :   Are you gonna dictate who should post and what, too.  :   It's less stressful to ignore 'no value' postings you know.  Who cares about correct analysis anyway, someone of out of hundreds have to be right sometimes.   It's the $$$$ each FY that counts.
> What's the pt of something being correct if you did nothing beforehand. By now it's too late    BTw, my porfolio is now back to where it was before the correction. 28 longs. Offloaded some, added some.
> ...




Very well said   

That is a gold medal post.

Tech/A what makes you right and others wrong? it does not matter how or what you trade.

All the matters is you make more money that you lose! no matter how + you never stop learning and improving yourself in your own way in your own time!

All I get from your posts is I am right your wrong shut up and read what I say!

In last few days I have made a very very nice profit from longs and now thinking about adding to them on a weekly confirmation! I have been openly bullish for over a week now and will be till told otherwise by my boss the market!

Lets have a post share and care session! It's not worth the angry posts??

Peace out


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

> *In the absence of Yogi who must be having a busy weekend collecting picnic baskets* I'll have a go at deciphering a practical use for the time targets.



  by Tech/A in Yogi question page 1

Man I laughed so hard I nearly choked on my starburst snake!

Very funny Tech


----------



## MichaelD (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.
> 
> Surely you wouldn't stand by and watch 20% of profits evaporate on the grounds that the system told me it will recover!
> 
> ...



I disagree that this technique could improve the exit due to the constant slippage of getting out and then back in again at a higher price when you call the tops incorrectly. The real profit killer for a trend following system is cutting profits short, not letting the last little bit of profit go before the exit triggers.

However - please be more specific - if it's codable, I'd certainly be interested in backtesting the concept.

There is one possible exception that I'd possibly concede - exiting a trade early that's gone parabolic and buying back in. Maybe (I haven't backtested it).


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Fundamentals are *early*. That at times they may be [and often are] TOO EARLY is a moot point and should improve with experience.
> 
> jog on
> d998



Hi Duc,

I have no question or doubt in my mind as to your knowledge and abilities with respect to FA, but find it interesting that you subscribe to the above view. That doesn't mean the above view is always incorrect, but I fail to see how you can refer to it as a truism.

If it was, stock analysts using an FA based approach should get it right more times than they appear to. But, if course if you wait long enough it may become true, as in a self fulfilling prophecy. Then again it may not, so how long do you wait before you move on.

In a perfectly ideal world I may agree with you, but in the real/practical world I would consider it a potentially flawed or limited view. Has the feel of an EMH/MPF view of the markets.

Have you considered factors that can have a lead-lag effect on the market an stocks dependent upon industry or company size?

Delays in dissemination of information can also have a lead or lag effect. An ealry receiver of the information may experience lead effect, whereas a late receiver of the information may experience a lag effect, as they have received the infromation after the event and the market has already reacted. This can also have an impact on economic indicators.

Market sentiment may play a role where the fundamentals will effectively lag the market. In this regard, market participants may form a negative view of a company and the fundamentals may not confirm or reflect this until some later time.

Consider Enron, which came first the market negative reaction/sentiment or the news that confirmed there was an issue with the fundamentals?

Depending where comapnies sit in the supply chain may also be factor as to whether fundamentals lead or lag the market. A change in commodity pricing can have an effect on industreis that rely on these commodities and the real effect of those changes may see the reaction exhibited in the market pricing before it shows up in the fundamentals.

It also relies on full disclosure and all relevant facts being provided in the company report and associated financial statements. Of course, no creative accounting is occuring.  

It may be argued that company reports and finacial reports are correct at the time they are produced, but then how long are they valid for. There is also an inherent delay between the time related to preparing and finalising the report before it is officially released.

Just a few thoughts and comments for now.

Cheers,
Les.


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Snake.*
> My view while un-palatable to some generates debate. Hey I learn a lot from these threads---am I the only one?




Point taken Tech.

Couldn't say I have learned much from most posts -- but some have kindled an interest in areas I had otherwise dismissed, with a limited number of  posters  pointing the guiding finger --- most of the S/T Traders posts have been very revealing though -- have quietly learned heaps from a handful of these posters.

Although one does begin to realize how fair one has journeyed over the years when reading the posts from new players.  --- As you sort of at times try to teach others, it seems amazing how much info you can either relearn or discard --- often wonder who is the real beneficiary.

Your point about posting live trades I find strange --- Whenever I have attempted this on this site -- I have been howled down for not following orthodox USA methods  --- or belittled for  using a method not approved on this site? --- Classic was yesterday in your reply to a post I posted in reply to a post in this thread (what where T/A Traders doing now?).

This site I find excellent for the stew of disciplines, each have something to offer if you look for it ---- but you and your disciples seem hell bent on that it must one way, and one way only -- if that's what your after join a religious group --- creativity, diversity is being destroyed on this site with that attitude.

What more could anyone want  in a forum if left to run its course --  Analysts, Traders, Investors, Gann, EW, F/A, T/A with the various schools of each, with new approaches popping up now and then --- sure we all knock each other -- that unfortunately is human nature --- why not just try to learn from each other, accept it or reject it, but don't kill it!


The whole point of this thread which I along with others was guilty of, was the blatant posting of a school of T/A which I and others are in Kindy with -- sure post for a question or query on the subject but to kid ourselves we knew more than those qualified by experience, I say is Losing the Plot --- hence the thread.

If this offends, then so be it -- but it is reality.

Cheers


----------



## constable (22 March 2007)

lesm said:
			
		

> Hi Duc,
> 
> I have no question or doubt in my mind as to your knowledge and abilities with respect to FA, but find it interesting that you subscribe to the above view. That doesn't mean the above view is always incorrect, but I fail to see how you can refer to it as a truism.
> 
> ...



Les im not all that interested in weighing into this subject too heavily but from my limited exp on the market (6 months fulltime or so ) ive come to the conclusion that cutting edge indication is to trade price action. Your fundamental analysis can be fantastic but unless the masses follow it wont mean jack.
Price action is and always will be the immediate market reaction reguardless of what else is happening and what complex indicator analysis you use.
At the end of the day the one thing every single trader out there has in common is
WE ARE ALL TRYING TO PREDICT FUTURE PRICE MOVEMENTS.
Price action is the closest anyone is going too get, so tight stops are the greatest saviour of capital. While you may well miss out on some great runs you will also miss out on some great losses!


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Similarly the level of skill in fundamental analysis on this board is also generally very poor *[something which i am somewhat knowledgable about]*.



No argument that that some the FA skills on the board are poor, so it will be interesting to see some FA from a knowledgeable person.



			
				stoxclimber said:
			
		

> I do have one question for you. You disparage me for criticising technical analysis done by posters on this board without mastering it myself, yet lash out at fundamental analysis yourself. Can I take it that you are quite experienced with fundamental analysis and would be comfortable going over the finer details of a dcf/comp valuation model for an ASX listed company with me?



There is an ongoing banter between the FAs and TAs on this and other boards where they intermix, so you shouldn't take a lot of the comments to heart.

Your observation of the quality of FA on the board may assist you in understanding the negativity of the TAs, especially when some of the FAs try playing at being TAs, or some hybrid concoction.

If you are so knowledgeable about FA then why do you need anyone to take you through the finer details of a dfc/comp valuation model, what are you trying to prove?

Cheers.


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

Constable,

I use TA not FA, but my education gave me a background in FA.

This just a discussion point with Duc.

Feel free to ignore.

Cheers.


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> I disagree that this technique could improve the exit due to the constant slippage of getting out and then back in again at a higher price when you call the tops incorrectly. The real profit killer for a trend following system is cutting profits short, not letting the last little bit of profit go before the exit triggers.
> 
> However - please be more specific - if it's codable, I'd certainly be interested in backtesting the concept.
> 
> There is one possible exception that I'd possibly concede - exiting a trade early that's gone parabolic and buying back in. Maybe (I haven't backtested it).




Suppose it's something to do with psychology between Analysts and Traders. 

The twain will never meet --- like trying to compare a Investor/Trader  or Fast Food Operator/ Antique Dealer --- to each his own poison I suppose.

As stated elsewhere, I CLOSED all positions (long/short term) once the XJO exceeded 6000 -- WRONG or RIGHT -- but my nature would not permit me to miss the possible opportunities that could arise --- thats where I keep coming back to -- this whole thing is about YOU! 


Cheers


----------



## constable (22 March 2007)

lesm said:
			
		

> Constable,
> 
> I use TA not FA, but my education gave me a background in FA.
> 
> ...



No worries probably out of my league anyway! But lately with my own pf i have come to above stated conclusions and looking for something more relevant and applicable to my own situation.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

> As stated elsewhere, I CLOSED all positions (long/short term) once the XJO exceeded 6000 -- WRONG or RIGHT -- but my nature would not permit me to miss the possible opportunities that could arise --- thats where I keep coming back to -- this whole thing is about YOU!




coyotte

That is great to read what this topic is about doing what u think is right.

That is the same reason I went long few days ago.


----------



## tech/a (22 March 2007)

Trade_It said:
			
		

> coyotte
> 
> That is great to read what this topic is about doing what u think is right.
> 
> That is the same reason I went long few days ago.




Strange I thought it was about T/A losing the plot.

Anyway I'll bugger off for a while --- plain bored.
If anyone wants me use the private messages.


----------



## lesm (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> My view while un-palatable to some generates debate. Hey I learn a lot from these threads---am I the only one?



tech/a,

Open debate is healthy and if everyone agreed where would we be. With the different approaches to trading, including individual styles, there are little snippets here and there that are very worthwhile.

Every now and then people's noses are going to get out of joint, but as long as its not personal we should be able to move on.



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Couldn't say I have learned much from most posts -- but some have kindled an interest in areas I had otherwise dismissed , with a limited number of  posters  pointing the guiding finger--- most of the S/T Traders posts have been very revealing though -- have quietly learned heaps from a handful of these posters.



coyotte,

There is a lot of noise on the forum, but as I mentioned above some little snippets that make it worth it. Every now and then you pick up on a different view or approach that can help you rethink or provide a differetn perspective on an approach.

To be honest when it came to short term trading and trading both sides (long/short) I learnt more from futures traders than I did from stock traders. But to be fair, shorting on the ASX is only relatively recent compared to overseas.

Cheers.


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

Trade_It said:
			
		

> coyotte
> 
> That is great to read what this topic is about doing what u think is right.
> 
> That is the same reason I went long few days ago.




Sorry it's NOT about doing what you THINK is right.
It's about whatever method you are using FA, TA, Tips, News etc "indicates" 


Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Sorry it's NOT about doing what you THINK is right.
> It's about whatever method you are using FA, TA, Tips, News etc "indicates"
> 
> 
> Cheers




LoL not the topic Coyotte I was talking about trading! wont delete it cuz i admit to my screw ups!

yeh before you say it yeh i messed up and i did forget the topic   aghhhhhh

Forgive me Coyotte

Now I use TA and it does give false signals on the daily, intra and weekly all the time but i have tight money management to keep my winners way above my losers.


----------



## coyotte (22 March 2007)

Trade_It said:
			
		

> LoL not the topic Coyotte I was talking about trading!
> 
> Now any system or analysis will throw a false signal that's the way the market is




So am I.
Intuition only comes into when you have been playing the same stock over and over and over --- you get know the stock backwards --- otherwise stick to the plan.

Cheers


----------



## stoxclimber (22 March 2007)

Re: Techs post, OK, I understand. 



			
				constable said:
			
		

> Your fundamental analysis can be fantastic but unless the masses follow it wont mean jack.




This is an oft repeated mantra on these boards which is misleading.

Correct fundamental analysis [if one removes the influence of unpredictable random events] will lead to profit REGARDLESS of the "price action". It is in this sense that fundamental analysis is theoretically superior to technical analysis, as ta is dependant upon human behaviour etc which has no instrinsic value in and of itself. 

A 10% share of a company is a right to 10% of the company's cash flows. Assuming the company is not mismanaged [management distributes cash when there are no NPV positive investment opportunities] the shareholder will release these values. If an investor buys a stream of cash flows that are worth $10000 [when adjusted for the timing and the risk of the cfs] for $5000  and the cash flow forecasts become accurate, the investor has made money regardless of the performance of the share price. This is intuitively true if one considers non or thin publically traded investments.

Of course, does this help you to buy company ABC at $2.34 on March 1st and  sell ABC for $3.20? Depends on your beliefs as to market efficiency.


----------



## MichaelD (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Suppose it's something to do with psychology between Analysts and Traders.
> 
> The twain will never meet --- like trying to compare a Investor/Trader  or Fast Food Operator/ Antique Dealer --- to each his own poison I suppose.
> 
> As stated elsewhere, I CLOSED all positions (long/short term) once the XJO exceeded 6000 -- WRONG or RIGHT -- but my nature would not permit me to miss the possible opportunities that could arise --- thats where I keep coming back to -- this whole thing is about YOU!



Now I'm even more confused! (btw I view myself as a trader, not an analyst.)

You may have posted this elsewhere, but why did you close all positions when the market hit 6,000 and did you do it before or after the 150 point drop?


----------



## constable (22 March 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Re: Techs post, OK, I understand.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Fantastic in theory but any decent dividend is followed by an overvalued sp with a premium already reflecting expected divs.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> So am I.
> Intuition only comes into when you have been playing the same stock over and over and over --- you get know the stock backwards --- otherwise stick to the plan.
> 
> Cheers




what about when that stock does nothing then what do u do??


----------



## stoxclimber (22 March 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> Fantastic in theory but any decent dividend is followed by an overvalued sp with a premium already reflecting expected divs.




Perhaps I am misunderstanding you, but you seem to be saying that there's no point in buying a stock which is paying a big dividend as people will already reflect the future dividends in the stock price. 

If you believe that the market is always going to price things correctly, then indeed there is no point to fundamental analysis [nor technical for that matter]. However, if you don't, then your argument would not follow - a company paying a big dividend now will vary the size of that dividend according to the profitability of the company and the growth opportunities available. If one can superiorly analyse either of these factors, one can better predict the cash flows to investors than the market is pricing. 

In theory, it really is irrelevant whether the stock just paid a huge dividend or no dividend at all other than the fact that a huge dividend reflects management confidence in the future of the company. In the real market there may be some effect as a result of fund buying etc


----------



## constable (22 March 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Perhaps I am misunderstanding you, but you seem to be saying that there's no point in buying a stock which is paying a big dividend as people will already reflect the future dividends in the stock price.
> 
> If you believe that the market is always going to price things correctly, then indeed there is no point to fundamental analysis [nor technical for that matter]. However, if you don't, then your argument would not follow - a company paying a big dividend now will vary the size of that dividend according to the profitability of the company and the growth opportunities available. If one can superiorly analyse either of these factors, one can better predict the cash flows to investors than the market is pricing.
> 
> In theory, it really is irrelevant whether the stock just paid a huge dividend or no dividend at all other than the fact that a huge dividend reflects management confidence in the future of the company. In the real market there may be some effect as a result of fund buying etc



I agree the market does not always reflect div returns in sp, but this would be few and far between. My point is that too often the sp is chased up so far as to negate any real benefit of the div.


----------



## theasxgorilla (22 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> You'd be suprised what you'd learn if you posted your (or anyone did) trading out in the open. Let me tell you it keeps you honest. Ive had 100s of eyes dissect T/T over 4 yrs each and everyone who have given constructive input or constructive critisism have added to my and many others knowledge.
> We/I question what we do and how we do it.




This works for a mechanical system.  You can take an observation that someone has made, run it through the computer, and see how it affects the stats.  Then you decide whether to adopt it or not.  THEN you trade the system and it's all robotic...in the scheme of things, psychology is given a tiny little space (hopefully).

Discretionary systems, totally different story.  You can't objectively measure their effectiveness on a sample of data.  Backtesting of a discretionary system equals taking a sample of data and steping through one bar at a time and asking, do I take the trade or not?  It's like training for a sporting event (to some extent).  When you think you're _fit_ and ready, you take your method to the market and start playing with real money.

In a discretionary method psychology and gut feel play a much larger part.  For this reason there isn't a hope in hell that I would publicise my system, or a pending trade, or any currently open trades onto a discussion forum.  (My) psychology and gut feel would be ruined.  Some others don't have a problem with this but I dare say they have more experience than I, with a longer standing track record.


----------



## coyotte (23 March 2007)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Now I'm even more confused! (btw I view myself as a trader, not an analyst.)
> 
> You may have posted this elsewhere, but why did you close all positions when the market hit 6,000 and did you do it before or after the 150 point drop?




a ATR system which I've mentioned several times on this site, was showing the XJO in the lead up to 15/2 (6000) was traveling to fast -- (a sell , not a short ).--- it kept breaking the upper band for 7 consecitive days--- ADX+ was strongly diverging  along with Twiggs Money Flow and Volume ---  all signs to me, to be making a " classic rounding top "  -- thats when I began closing down  long term positions --- was wrong it continued higher for a few days -- was beginning to doubt the play -- but the press hype seemed to be the driver . --- Mag then put up a post which I took note of and that was the final straw -- closed all positions  bar BSG and  took a wait and see approach.

I only basically trade stocks within the XJO , thats why I keep it in the active watch list .

Long Term was closed on 21/02 --- final close was late 23/02 (just a couple of short term trades)

Have to admit that I didn't expect such a sudden and severe drop though.

 Cheers


----------



## coyotte (23 March 2007)

Trade_It said:
			
		

> what about when that stock does nothing then what do u do??




Dump it!

It's using up capital and worse your attention.

Cheers


----------



## dhukka (23 March 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> In theory, it really is irrelevant whether the stock just paid a huge dividend or no dividend at all other than the fact that a huge dividend reflects management confidence in the future of the company. In the real market there may be some effect as a result of fund buying etc




Actually the paying of a huge dividend or none at all can tell you a lot about management competence. If a company has the ability to reinvest profits at high rates of return then paying out large dividends demonstrates that  management is squandering shareholder value.


----------



## MichaelD (23 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> -- thats when I began closing down  long term positions --- was wrong it continued higher for a few days --



Interesting - noting the market being overheated and acting accordingly. (The "I can't believe the market went even higher today - this CAN'T go on for much longer" feeling.)

I have a couple of other questions which lead on from this - do you KNOW trading this way is more profitable than simply using a mechanical trailing stop or do you FEEL it is? If you KNOW, how do you know?


----------



## coyotte (23 March 2007)

No Michael 
I don't know for every portfolio and for every situation --- but for most of the stocks I hold Long Term I would generally turn the portfolio over twice a year.

May be out the long term market for a couple of months -- usually buying back in during June and sell into the Xmas/ New Year rallies --  also gives me the chance to balance the portfolio and get ride of any deadwood.

But I presume it would be a lot to do with your attitude -- I've never viewed stocks as ownership, they are simply somewhere to park the cash.

I keep records of annual transactions (for tax) but have never bothered to compare these to a buy & hold situation, because it just wouldn't happen.

With the Sharemarket I'm a trader not a investor --- Property entirely different situation.


----------



## coyotte (23 March 2007)

For Medium Term Trend Trading it is definitely more profitable:

I demonstrated this several months ago but got howled down for using lagging indicators --- generally U can pick the lead up to the toping, thats when you start watching the stock closely.  I treat the STOP as a last resort situation in case I miss the lead up.


Cheers


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Nothing WRONG with this style.
> 
> But Weinstein's, Gupppy's Trend Trading --- and most other Trending techniques can be vastly improved by introducing appropriate EXITS.
> 
> ...




Hi Coyotte, 

Agree with this if you are trading a set percentage of funds, with the majority of funds as long term holds.

Stick to the stocks you know and let the trade come to you, don't chase the price action, and set profit targets.

If your comfortable with your long positions through your fundamental research........why should you have a problem trading the pullbacks.

Trade the market as it is and has been for some time........and has panned out to be again, hopefully! 

I'm sure anyone at it for a while can have some froth skimmed if the trend changes.............



Cheers


----------



## MichaelD (23 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> For Medium Term Trend Trading it is definitely more profitable:
> 
> I demonstrated this several months ago but got howled down for using lagging indicators --- generally U can pick the lead up to the toping, thats when you start watching the stock closely.  I treat the STOP as a last resort situation in case I miss the lead up.



Very interesting, thanks for these insights.

I currently hold the view that Long Term Trend Following with a trailing stop is the most efficient way to engage the ASX, however for shorter time frames a different exit strategy works better. It would appear that we in fact share similar views in many ways.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Snake.*
> 
> (1)Its pretty obvious some dont trade.
> OR
> ...





Tech,
Understood.

I learn a lot just conversing with the many on here. But I will not tolerate demands to prove myself nor should anyone else. I have learned some stuff from Coyotte because he is not a typical American style trader - pure Guppy from what I gather, which I am not. I would hate to see others afraid to post when I would like to read their stuff, validated or not. A stiff question or two sorts the bogus from the real.
Feel free to continue posting.
Snake


----------



## tech/a (23 March 2007)

> But I will not tolerate demands to prove myself nor should anyone else.




*Its not a demand. Its a serious suggestion.*

*ASX* In reply to your comments.
Well if that is/was the case then where better to learn *DISCIPLINE*

Here is why people dont do it ---*The real reasons*.

(1) Fear of humiliation.
(2) They dont have a trading methodology.
(3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.

If one
(1) Posted their method to be demonstrated,these are the rules I will be using.
(2) If they have been doing it for years-----These are the results I have been getting and what I expect.

From here the trading would be a learning exercise---a very worthwhile one for *BOTH* the poster and those watching/and or commmenting.

*You may even get posters who say.*

"Look this is a trading Idea Ive been using ,my trading has been profitable but far from consistent (Now many will see thats the truth!),so I'll post things up and see if there is somethings that will help my way of trading."

*Constructive critisism * is an excellent way to improve methods.


----------



## wayneL (23 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Here is why people dont do it ---*The real reasons*.
> 
> (1) Fear of humiliation.
> (2) They dont have a trading methodology.
> (3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.



That's drawing a long bow tech.

Those could be the reasons, but also they may not.

Posting trades is one hell of a commitment

To have integrity:
1/ All trades must be posted in real time
2/ It must be done over a period of time to show periods of both drawdown and rapid gain and for these to balance out within the broad context of the method.

Furthermore:
3/ The poster must be willing to answer questions and perhaps justify/defend the logic
4/ The poster may be subject to attack of his or her method as we have seen.
5/  Shorter term traders will have many more trades to log exacerbating the above

For these reasons I think your comments are unfair and inaccurate.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Its not a demand. Its a serious suggestion.*
> 
> *ASX* In reply to your comments.
> Well if that is/was the case then where better to learn *DISCIPLINE*
> ...




Tech/A

The way you come across sometimes can seem like your attacking, but underneath that I see you just making a illogical comment based on what you know and your 13 years of experience.

I think no one in these forms has the right to ask someone to prove their trades with out proving there own first. 

That is a very personal thing to ask of any business Manager, show me your internal company files, no I change that it's damn rude! Most Managers would smack u for asking that(unless you work for the ATO!!)

Maybe try to come across a little nicer in your replies and wires won't get crossed!

Members I have Learnt a lot already from Tech/a, Magdoran, Motorway and wave picker.


----------



## theasxgorilla (23 March 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Its not a demand. Its a serious suggestion.*




I know...and I know you post your results...and lets face it, using a mechanical system that has been back tested on an extensive data sample, the only thing that will put egg on your face is market conditions vastly different from anything encountered in your data sample...most likely a catastrophic event...and many others will be affected too, so you'll save some face.

You've got kahoonas I'll give you that.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well if that is/was the case then where better to learn *DISCIPLINE*




If you want to manage other people's money or run an advisory service, then you might find it beneficial to test the waters by posting your trades on a forum first and seeing how you weather the storm.  I know plenty of successful individual traders who don't bother with this.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Here is why people dont do it ---*The real reasons*.
> 
> (1) Fear of humiliation.




Trading is hard enough...why make it harder?  Do you seek the opposite of humiliation?



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> (2) They dont have a trading methodology.




Perhaps, or maybe they just don't care to argue it with people who believe too strongly in T/A or Gann or Elliott or F/A or Astrology or <insert next fad here>.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> (3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.




You got me there.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> If one
> (1) Posted their method to be demonstrated,these are the rules I will be using.
> (2) If they have been doing it for years-----These are the results I have been getting and what I expect.
> 
> ...




My suspicion is that you'll get a whole lot of naysayers telling you why your method doesn't work, or why you got lucky in this market.

My philosophy is to protect your psychology, secondary only to protecting trading equity.  If you are a *DISCRETIONARY* trader and you make a discretionary decision, and prior to making that decision you went to a forum and asked every man and his dog what they thought...how can you know whether they assisted or adversely affected your decision making...SINCE it's possible to lose money and still have done the right thing???  You see my point???  It's gets tough to discern between the purity of your own trading decisions and the effect of bias introduced through arguing with people on a forum...who could be very smart when it comes to their methods of analysis but be utter numpties when it comes to yours.


----------



## theasxgorilla (23 March 2007)

Trade_It said:
			
		

> Maybe try to come across a little nicer in your replies and wires won't get crossed!




Trade_It, haven't you heard?  Nice guys finish last


----------



## >Apocalypto< (23 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Trade_It, haven't you heard?  Nice guys finish last




Ha Ha Ha so true at times.

But in the end karma catches up!


----------



## motorway (23 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> For Medium Term Trend Trading it is definitely more profitable:
> 
> I demonstrated this several months ago but got howled down for using lagging indicators --- generally U can pick the lead up to the toping, thats when you start watching the stock closely.  I treat the STOP as a last resort situation in case I miss the lead up.
> 
> Cheers




Very Very Wyckoff except for the lagging indicators   



> Wyckoff Exit Strategies
> 
> In Order of Degree of Desirability
> 
> ...




To determine if this exiting on warnings not waiting for breaks is correct.
What must be considered is what the $$ freed up are then applied too.
As well as the performance of the position then exited..

You might leave a more mature trend and Instead of grinding out the last %
apply the money now to  a more vigorous youthful trend.. 

The Opportunity Cost/Return


motorway


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

Tech,


> Here is why people dont do it ---*The real reasons*.
> 
> (1) Fear of humiliation.
> (2) They dont have a trading methodology.
> (3) They have no idea how to apply their analysis in a consistently profitable way Fundamental/Technical/Astronomy/Dart throwing.---and they KNOW IT.



No it is the fear of being cut to pieces by people who don't trade for a living for some. Others see no value in doing it - simple. Wayne gave some pertinent facts.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> WOR:
> 
> "Jim Berg's  ATR system" trigger was on Fri 16/3 --- Entry was on Mon 19/3 below 27.36, was @ 27.15
> 
> ...



thanks Coyotte.
Could you post a chart?


----------



## coyotte (23 March 2007)

Later tonite if u want it Snake.

Will be tied up till then.


Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Later tonite if u want it Snake.
> 
> Will be tied up till then.
> 
> ...



No worries any time is fine.


----------



## coyotte (23 March 2007)

WOR -- CHART:

The first Graph is simply the area I was SHORT twice based on the GAP and ASX allowable short percentages -- was lucky to get out near the close on the 14th.

The second graph is the LONG using the ATR system I was babbling on about.
It's a plug in for MetaStock which you must purchase:

Rules of the method are basic -- suitable for short or med/long term.

1: Stock in UP trend.

2: Stock must have made a recent low with the systems RSI setting.

3: Has now risen and CLOSED above the lower red line (trigger).

4: Initial STOP is the recent LOW (no trade if >10%).

5: Exit for short term is a close above the upper green --if > than 10% of entry.

6: Exit for all terms is two consecutive closes below the the lower red line.

I've changed the rules I follow with it a bit --- but have been testing it as a unrelated method to pattern trading.

You can see that there was a trigger just a few days before the one I had used ---- under the rules this is still a current trade -- I'm waiting to see if comes down to the tread line for a new entry -- although that GAP still seems  to be of concern to me.

In the "potential breakout thread" you will find a post there about FLX -- though selected for a different reason -- this system is also on that chart and has the trigger --- FLX hasn't looked back since --- so maybe it has potential as another unrelated trading method.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (24 March 2007)

Coyotte.

Just to recap this is a current long trade in WOR based upon the above rules.
From what I see its about 5 days old.
Being a $26 stock are you trading X number on CFD's or just a straight trade?

Any stop?
Parcel sizing?
Exit is the short term trendline break?---or.

FLX is that going or about to go---would like to follow if it does.


----------



## tech/a (24 March 2007)

*Michael*

In reply to.



> Suddenly, you don't need to backtest any more. Suddenly, you don't need to paper trade any more. And now, you seem to have returned to where you started before you became profitable - the analysis before all.
> 
> Is it self-sabotage? Is there a weakness in your psychology? What has happened to you in the last 6 months, Tech/A? You aren't the same as when I started corresponding with you.




Firstly nothing has changed,other than the spectrum of discussion.

(1) *Systems * trading all written before and now is exactly as it always has been,Systems trading is distinct from discretionary trading in that it is a set of rules applied over and over to return a positive expectancy,AND a trading blueprint which keeps you alerted to market conditions outside of those tested. Its inflexable without change and designed to be just that. Great way to trade and I do trade that way.--you too have reaped the benifits. Ive not altered my veiws.

(2) *Discretionary* trading is rules applied with flexability,beyond,in my and most cases the capacity to code and test. You can have and do have unlimited flexabiliy,to combine analysis techniques,change analysis on a dime (In our case 10c piece),add to positions,leverage instantly,remove that leverage instantly,pyramid positions instantly,take some profit instantly,let some run,take it all off,run with the dynamics of the market,terribly difficult if not impossible to code and test. Its a different form of trading.
Its *NOT* the analysis its *HOW ITS APPLIED * which will result in best return--or best expectancy. Sure you can walk forward test and I have and am doing so. My findings are profit beyond that of systems trading ---in my case from the application of the analysis I use.

All analysis wether set in specific Systems coding or used in Discretionary trading is subject to *PROVE/DISPROVE*.
Wether its Yogi and the likes combining Time, Price,or others who include Pattern and volume.*EVERY* form of analysis is governed by Prove disprove and application of the analysis.
If one of Yogi's time points is disproven simply move to the next.If one of Elliots wave counts is disproven move to the next,if an RSI over sold is disproven then move to the next. If a Fundamental valuation is disproved or altered due to X then move to the next---*AND APPLY * that analysis to the trade/s.

Nothings changed--and nothing will change,perhaps though the level of understanding from proponents of *ALL* forms of analysis.


----------



## coyotte (24 March 2007)

Will start a new Thread called "JB-System".

As it is not really related to the topic of this thread, which would probably be better for every one if it was just buried.

As to WOR -- as will be explained in the new thread, it is only a test of the system -- came across WOR as one of the highest % shorts.

The trade was with IG-Mkts/CFD.
per $1000 position = $1 brokerage + $1.75 pw Interest (long).

Cheers


----------



## motorway (24 March 2007)

> All analysis wether set in specific Systems coding or used in Discretionary trading is subject to PROVE/DISPROVE.
> Wether its Yogi and the likes combining Time, Price,or others who include Pattern and volume.EVERY form of analysis is governed by Prove disprove and application of the analysis.
> If one of Yogi's time points is disproven simply move to the next.If one of Elliots wave counts is disproven move to the next,if an RSI over sold is disproven then move to the next. If a Fundamental valuation is disproved or altered due to X then move to the next---AND APPLY that analysis to the trade/s.




Discretionary does not mean arbitrary.
It can and should mean.. logical methodical  a SYSTEMATIC check list that is ticked off...

Only recently did a computer beat one of the best players in a chess match.

If a Discretionary system is SYSTEMATIC Given enough computer resources
It could be coded... But The very best so called Discretionary systems maybe 
have too many variables hence two many relationships to weight
That call for Judgement beyond what a reasonable amount of $$ in today's computer can achieve..

Big Blue (was that the name of the Computer) How much did it cost?
I bet the variables in the markets are even more convoluted

BUT... That does not mean that there is any real discretion in the rules and principles that should be applied..

eg crossing the Road

System..... At the traffic lights.. Green = walk
discretionary..... Away from the Traffic Lights

Now You can not cross in any way safely  outside a time tested logical that can be broken down to a check list ..

The discretion is in a way illusionary..
However to apply principle to practice requires
Judgement and experience

So crossing the road becomes intuitive and safe
But to someone who always waits for the Green light
reckless guessing and gambling with life and limb..

That said the method does have to have a completely real logic
based on reliable feedback..

Shutting ones eyes and crossing at the same time as yesterday.
Or on the count of four have No logic to start with..

A method must be Scientific in approach..

And flexibility is important... 

motorway


----------



## tech/a (24 March 2007)

Motorway.

I agree.
Neither I or I would say any here have that capability NOR the computer resources.
Nothing works as well as the computer in between the ears.
I and most have limitations.

So we are left with setting systematic plans that we can apply OR we trade with that between the ears.

In the end it then boils down to application of analysis,and if we find results better than those that we can test,through that application------.

This is the aim of all discretionary traders---to apply their analysis in a profitable way.No different to the Systems or systamatic trader.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 March 2007)

motorway,


> Discretionary does not mean arbitrary.
> It can and should mean.. logical methodical  a SYSTEMATIC check list that is ticked off...



Agree.



> I bet the variables in the markets are even more convoluted



Yes.



> The discretion is in a way illusionary..
> However to apply principle to practice requires
> Judgement and experience



True.



> So crossing the road becomes intuitive and safe
> But to someone who always waits for the Green light
> reckless guessing and gambling with life and limb..



I wonder if Michael D is like this  (just joking)



> That said the method does have to have a completely real logic
> based on reliable feedback..



Those feedback loops.

Regardless of all the theory, there is one thing that will beat most. To those who do the hard work they will discover.


----------



## coyotte (27 March 2007)

Yogi:

Mag pm some vital info regarding Aget and McLaren.

With some suggestions on software -- seems there is an Ozz developer.

He's up there with the top! 


Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (27 March 2007)

coyotte said:


> Yogi :
> 
> Mag pm some vital info regarding Aget and McLaren.
> 
> ...




Coyotte,
Indeed there is and they have done some extensive research on the EW theory. It was quite interesting their results.


----------



## wayneL (27 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Coyotte,
> Indeed there is and they have done some extensive research on the EW theory. It was quite interesting their results.



Let's see.

One word, begins with E and ends with N?

If so, I know this company quite intimately.


----------



## BBand (27 March 2007)

Is trading that difficult?

You do not have to have a "good" win/loss ratio to make a good living from the market.

All you have to do is make the most of your winners - pyramid into them! and ride them until the trend changes. Consider moving up timeframes, if we have a successful trade using dailies, transfer the management to the weekly/monthly chart.

If you check your trading results, you may find that the 80/20 factor applies, why not capitalise on the 20% good trades and make them even better

The above is just a suggestion, it works for me. It may provide a topic to discuss with your fellow posters, if so - good

I will not be interrogated by you know who (or anyone else), I just wish to be helpful - try it out, you may be pleasantly surprised.

I've used this technique successfully for years

Happy trading  
Peter


----------



## tech/a (28 March 2007)

> You do not have to have a "good" win/loss ratio to make a good living from the market.




*Absolutely right Peter.*
There are only 3 ways to profit. (Other than arbitrage--for the Ducster).

(1) Win more often than you lose.--Generally short term trading.
(2) Have greater winning profits than losses.(Ive seen very profitable methods which are right 30% of the time) generally longer term methods.
(3) A combination of both.Generally for medium term trading methods.

You know who is quite happy to ruffle a few feathers.
When contributors come up with genuinely helpful and thought provoking content,it adds to the community.Thats my aim.
As I am quizzed from time to time,so to shall I quiz. Interrogation---Where were you around the time of post 26?---clearly a perception.

Every poster is entitled to their opinion and every poster is entitled to question that opinion.Its everyones right to chose whether to post or not to post,as has been clearly shown by members of this forum.

*Clearly those with little to add become personal.*


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