# S&P500 - Analysis and Trading



## RichKid

I'm surprised we haven't got an S&P 500 thread here already, hope I didn't miss it. Thought I'd kick it off. Will post some charts and info soon.


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## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



RichKid said:


> I'm surprised we haven't got an S&P 500 thread here already, hope I didn't miss it. Thought I'd kick it off. Will post some charts and info soon.




Great Idea Rich, as it is the SP500 that is the "real man's" index, not that Dow rubbish the medja muppets harp on with.  :

Seriously, nothing wrong with trading the Dow, but I reckon it's the SP500 that should be the index analyzed as the broad measure of the US market.

A proxy that can be used is => (SPY:AMEX) the sp500 ETF, for those who don't  have SPX data.


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## RichKid

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> Great Idea Rich, as it is the SP500 that is the "real man's" index, not that Dow rubbish the medja muppets harp on with.  :
> 
> Seriously, nothing wrong with trading the Dow, but I reckon it's the SP500 that should be the index analyzed as the broad measure of the US market.
> 
> A proxy that can be used is => (SPY:AMEX) the sp500 ETF, for those who don't  have SPX data.




hehehe, yeah, it's the real thing alright! The Dow might have been the bellwether when there a were a handful of stocks but that is no longer the case, from what I understand it's still price weighted as well,  unlike the S&P. 

I find that some of the patterns and trends that I look for appear to be clearer in the most liquid markets- indices, futures, top 20 bluechips etc. Less slippage too. So the logical choice was to look at a broad market index like the S&P. Still researching it, I see that SPX and INX are codes which relate to it. Since joining IB last year I'm now in a position to actually trade it once I'm prepared. Maybe an ETF is a good way to dip my toe, thanks for mentioning it. Also came across, SDS- it is an 'inverse SPX' ETF, supposedly with twice leveraged exposure to the downside in the SPX for anoyone who's interested.

The other benefit of these US markets is that you get access to so much free info and data than in Australia, not to mention whole sites dedicated to US derivatives as well. I can see why you traded the US rather than our local Aussie market Wayne, we really are the poor relations.


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## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*

Just on index ETF's, here are some others for anyone that is interested.

Dow => DIA
Nasdaq => QQQQ
Russell 2000 => IWM

Also very liquid options in the above.


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## RichKid

*Re: S&P 500*

Some info on the index: 



> Bloomberg-
> Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941- 43 base period. See SPY US Equity for the tradeable equivalent.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX:IND
> ----------------
> 
> Standard & Poor's-
> Widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market, this world-renowned index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. S&P 500 is a core component of the U.S. indices that could be used as building blocks for portfolio construction. It is also the U.S. component of S&P Global 1200.
> 
> Index constituents exhibit the following characteristics:
> 
> * Market Coverage – Approximately 75% of the U.S. equities market
> * Weighting – Market capitalization
> * Market Capitalization – Minimum of US$ 5 billion
> * Public Float – At least 50%
> * Reconstitution – As needed basis
> 
> With more than US$ 1.53 trillion in indexed assets, the S&P U.S. indices have earned a reputation for being not only leading market indicators, but also investable portfolios designed for cost efficient replication or the creation of index-linked products. The history of the S&P 500 dates back to 1923, with an expansion to include 500 companies in 1957.
> 
> Index Governance and Policy
> This index is maintained by the S&P Index Committee, whose members include Standard & Poor's economists and index analysts. It follows a set of published guidelines and policies that provide the transparent methodologies used to maintain the index.
> Follow this link for a list of market constituents and other data including volatility data: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...ices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.html




This is a long term log chart in relation to the Dow (the S&P is the upper line in black):


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## RichKid

*Re: S&P 500*

Zooming into recent history. This should be enough to give us a rough picture of where we are.


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## Sean K

*Re: S&P 500*

So, what's the go RK? Calling a bottom???


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## RichKid

*Re: S&P 500*



kennas said:


> So, what's the go RK? Calling a bottom???




Haha! wish I knew! Still trying to get a feel for my prey.....then will mark up some charts...since this is where the big boys hunt this little predator is likely to end up being gobbled up so I need to prepare as best I can. Who knows, it may even be a market that doesn't suit me.

My assumption is that the major weekly trend is down and that we're seeing a pullback atm, to be followed by another decline. The multi-year trend is still clearly up (see previous charts), although we may have just entered a prolonged bear market rather than a brief one; could easily be a double top of some sort- cf the 1965-1975 period too. I'm looking to go short in line with the current trend once I find a good entry into this counter-trend. I know this is pretty average quality analysis but I'll try to post something better later. 

Below is the VIX (volatility index), it might help me assess different strategies, this is the type of free data that is hard to find in Australia.

PS All these charts will give a new reader of this thread some sort of starting point. It's also a quick refresher for others. We might end up with several SPX style threads if sufficient interest appears (eg for different strategies).


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## treefrog

*Re: S&P 500*

recent from carl swenlin 
"The following chart helps put current events into an historical perspective, showing the earnings crash that accompanied the last bear market, as well as the current earings decline. I don't know how anyone could be optimistic about this picture.

(read yellow chart)

Now let's turn to the technical market picture. The chart below shows that the long-term sell signal is still in force; however, a nice looking bottom has formed and could be a solid base for a medium-term rally. As I write this the market is still open on April 4 and the S&P 500 is trying to break out of a three-month trading range. Also, most of our medium-term indicators (not shown) have reached very oversold levels and have formed positive divergences. Finally, we have medium-term buy signals on most of the indexes and sectors we track. Evidence is pretty strong that we are beginning a rally that will challenge important overhead resistance, possibly around the area of 1450 on the S&P 500.

(blue chart)

Bottom Line: The earnings picture is abysmal, and there is a solid long-term sell signal in progress. Playing the long side looks promising, but keep a tight reign on long positions because we are in a bear market until proven otherwise. Remember: "Bear market rules apply! The odds are that support levels will be violated, and, if against those odds the market manages to rally off support, odds are that the rally will fail before it can change the long-term trend.""


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## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



treefrog said:


> recent from carl swenlin
> "The following chart helps put current events into an historical perspective, showing the earnings crash that accompanied the last bear market, as well as the current earings decline. I don't know how anyone could be optimistic about this picture.




Thanks for that tree frog. That confirms my contention that the market is veeeeery expensive, even still. Without the prospect of strong earnings growth, this market is overvalued by what, say 30 -50%?

_Mein Gott!!!_


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

Data or earnings??  my Vindicators are tentatively pointing to a slight bias towards leaning in the general direction of a possible weighting for data?? I thunk..

Cheers
          Y ...


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## treefrog

*Re: S&P 500*

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=271215#post271215

awhile back I posted here of the similarities developing between the current downer (white fibs)and the previous one (blue fibs) suggesting if it continued to mirror, we could expect the dead cat to bounce from the 38% white back to the red downtrend line.
It made the run OK and seems now to be showing signs of weakness.
Note the original target stalled at 50% up of the first down leg (black fibs amid blue fibs) and the current retrace is also at that point (black fibs amid white fibs)


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## gazelle

*Re: S&P 500*

SP500 timing dates into either Fri 13th June or Mon 16th June . 
Will position according to trend around these dates .


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

Haven't bothered... yet... looking at the bigger pitcher, but the dailies look to be showing an A=C 50% correction... or not??
Cheers
............Kauri


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

I want to use the S&P 500 index and look for monthly and weekly pivot opportunities, but actually trade the SPY or the SPDR S&P 500 index ETF. The reason i want to do this is leverage, or lack of. The ES mini is really too rich for my blood at this stage.

Can anyone think of any reason that i could not effectively trade this in this way? I've not traded ETF's before. The SPY is long and short. 

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*



CanOz said:


> I want to use the S&P 500 index and look for monthly and weekly pivot opportunities, but actually trade the SPY or the SPDR S&P 500 index ETF. The reason i want to do this is leverage, or lack of. The ES mini is really too rich for my blood at this stage.
> 
> Can anyone think of any reason that i could not effectively trade this in this way? I've not traded ETF's before. The SPY is long and short.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Anyone care to speculate on whether or not i can speculate on this?


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Still replying to myself here...

Another reason not to trade the SPY (ETF) out of hours..check out these bars, taking out stops is cheap.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*



Kauri said:


> Haven't bothered... yet... looking at the bigger pitcher, but the dailies look to be showing an A=C 50% correction... or not??
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




 If above works itell oot... then 3 is the big one ???

 Cheers
............ potteen  :


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*



Kauri said:


> If above works itell oot... then 3 is the big one ???
> 
> Cheers
> ............ potteen :





  the scratcher beckons... 
   auto-pilot on... 

 Slainte
................Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*



Kauri said:


> Haven't bothered... yet... looking at the bigger pitcher, but the dailies look to be showing an A=C 50% correction... or not??
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




  well well... there she goes..
Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

still following the script... so fars anyways..

Cheers
.............Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

Strange... I guess... butt whenever I spot and trade a rounding top... it very often pulls up when it reaches the ... aahh... I guess, the original starting point??/   anyways... if she follows the past.. the SP is due to bounce???  whatever,my stops are in close... closer than Mei Ling is at the moment..    ( I warned you Mei..    )..
 Cheers
............Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

Ooooops

...godnite from me... and good nite fro him
............Kauri


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## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*

Posthumously calling the gap fill today... buyers everywhere. Pre-empting rates being slashed to zero?

I'll hitch a ride, but if they're playing for keeps, they can have it.


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

stop running at previous days high now... for want of a better place to place it..

Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*



Kauri said:


> stop running at previous days high now... for want of a better place to place it..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




and closed out... now, for the first time for a long whiles, I don't have any short-med term (in my TF) trades on anywheres, and I may leave it that way until next week, just to let all the rumours settle and see if some direction, stability,liquidity, and weekend anns come about.. If confidence can be re-instilled, the buck will firm as the world is still structurally short USD; it is however a *very big* *"IF".* 

Cheers
..........Kauri


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: S&P 500*

S&P500 getting royally spanked again...new 5 year low...look out below!


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: S&P 500*



theasxgorilla said:


> S&P500 getting royally spanked again...new 5 year low...look out below!




Did I mention _sub 1000 points_!


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## mazzatelli1000

*Re: S&P 500*



theasxgorilla said:


> Did I mention _sub 1000 points_!




Thank God Ive been a pessimist this month!!!


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## treefrog

*Not following the script anymore*

back in march I suggested the established downer was proportionally following the 2001 bear pattern
well it did for 30 odd weeks but has decided to toss away the script of late.

no longer useful apart from indicating things are a little oversold atm


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

a rumour that there might be another globally coordinated interest rate cut velly soon. The stock market has been touted as the source of the rumour--which may explain why Dow futures are flat to positive.

Cheers
............Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

With better-than- expected post-bell earnings from Google/IBM, the buying was extended . Despite mixed markets in Asia and up markets in Europe, Globex futures on U.S. indices were again taken to the cleaners, with Dow futures off over 300 while SPZ tanked by 33.
    Who was selling? - not Mr. and Mrs. Rudd blowing out of their retirement account. It was largely the big hedge funds - why - to buy another island? The hedge fund game used to be to buy protection on say Lehman, short the shares, short SPZ and then shovel rumors to pit brokers soon to make a triple bundle. Now that gig is over, it seems the hedge fund bears are buying out-of-the-money calls on the VIX (big volume in 90 and 100 strikes) and then sell the heck out of SPZ, etc. - volumes have been huge and today is option expiration - bingo, ring the register. With option expiration today, the Lehman CDS settlement next Tuesday, and VIX option expiration Wednesday, there will be no shortage of volatility ...  surprisingly..

Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

Today Buffett has said that he has begun to buy US equities in his _personal account_ after holding nothing more than US government bonds in that account. Buffett goes on to say that "if prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities." While Buffett warns that he can not predict short term movements in equities, he says that his decision to buy stocks at the present has been dictated by one major rule that says "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful." 

  Cheers
.............Kauri


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## Whiskers

*Re: S&P 500*



Kauri said:


> Today Buffett has said that he has begun to buy US equities in his _personal account_...
> 
> ...dictated by one major rule that says "*be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."*
> 
> Cheers
> .............Kauri




I like that saying! 

...and I think you're pretty right about the hedge funds. These wild shenanigans can't go on for too much longer surely, before it pisses off the law makers to ban/tighten/??? something else.


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## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Yeh, for the first time in some time, some of these commodity equities are starting to look mightily undervalued!

Mr Buffett and his looking for a rally (at least over the next month or two), sounds about right to me at the moment!


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*



> in Wednesday's carnage NDZ almost hit the bottom seen last Friday, while the financials heavy SPZ did not even come close. That action suggests that hedge funds have been in complete purge mode - indeed Citadel's largest hedge fund, Kensington Global Strategies Fund, is down more than 30% this year. These are glaring examples of forced selling and thus what bottoms are made of - perhaps any purchases of SPZ or NDZ here, will yield significant gains well before year end.




   a bottom, med term??, is in for mine, time to start looking at selective undervalued stocks that have been unfairly punished by the past few weeks shennanigans and whose fortunes are not too closely linked to the coming/existing slowdown...  the writing is on the wall... unless it was one of those plurry graffitti artists again...  

cheers
...........Kauri


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Decision time again? Which way does she break?


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## Kauri

*Re: S&P 500*

Will the MASS of trapped shorts start getting out... or will they wait for Uncle Ben??  either way *I guess* they will sell yesterdays bolter... methinks a med-term bottom *may* be in place... *possibly* a good opportunity approaching around the bend??
  Incidentally, has anyone noticed the biggest short squeeze ever.. in VW... may break a few wedged hedgies apparently... (unless of course they quaffify for a bailout )....

  Cheers
.............Kauri


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## skyQuake

*Re: S&P 500*

imagine the headlines!

_Porsche corners the VW market_


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Todays pattern is a very popular complex pattern known for its ability to meet its target once the pattern comes into play...can you guess the name of the pattern?

Think Dandruff.....:

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

860 here we come?


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## Sean K

*Re: S&P 500*



CanOz said:


> 860 here we come?



Or possibly 840 from that...


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*



kennas said:


> Or possibly 840 from that...




Dropping like a lead balloon Kennas, so with it the EUR and the AUD/JPY, finally some movement.

The actual target i got from the measured move was 850, but i thought i better be conservative....

Back to bed....or as Kauri says...the scratcher

CanOz


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## julius

*Re: S&P 500*

Hi Canaussie,

What's your thoughts on the patternexplorer software?

Is it worth the dosh ?


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

It was only a couple of hundred US i think, and its pretty handy. I use pivots, Fibb, sometimes the fractals, and now playing with the Ichimoku charts. I guess for someone that lacks the AFL skills, such as moi, its been very beneficial to me.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## BentRod

*Re: S&P 500*



> or as Kauri says...the scratcher




Where is the big man?

Must be holidaying in the Tropics with all the profits from AUDJPY......LOL


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Well, the H&S target was met, and exceeded. Now i think its safe to say the October lows have been retested. Will they hold, and will this be a bounce that many have been anticipating? If we get a bounce will it also knock the DX off its perch for a while and start a new uptrend in many downbeaten currencies?

Stay tuned. Its the best the game in town!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Lots of indicators pointing towards divergence on the big cap index. A new recent low of the price but not the indicator....lots of stocks showing the same too. Looks like a retest on this chart.....could be some opps for trades back into the range though. Could be interpreted as a bullish wedge as well. Due to for a rally, or at least a bounce before a move much lower, IMO.

Nice double top on the monthly, could it go to the target move for that???

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

This nasty wedge could spoil the party pretty quickly.....i wonder if we will retest that break, probably, just to shake me out of my shorts!

CanOz


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## acouch

*Re: S&P 500*

just playing around last night ans set up a ES road map..there are 3 charts.. from, around 9 pm last night till now
thought you might want a look
ac

ps..hope i have selected right charts


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## acouch

*Re: S&P 500*

goodness top chart was from back in 2007..bh 
sorry about that..here is the first chart of this 3 chart series from last night..i hope


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## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Another GAP down tonight...reckon it might rally a bit later before finishing up at 800 ish?


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## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Just sitting here putting together some levels I am to be aware of in the S&P tonight.  Every day I mark up the previous RTH HLC and the Globex HL and the day’s RTH Open as reference points for the session.  And I also mark up significant price highs and lows, and high & low volume areas, all again only as reference points.  Two levels are making themselves known to me, around 905 and also at 923/924.50.

Chart shows these two levels (905 and also at 923/924.50) marked with the big red arrows, all the other levels are not marked yet .


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## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Chart shows these two levels (905 and also at 923/924.50) marked with the big red arrows, all the other levels are not marked yet .




Yes Timmy but what is the stochastic saying :


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## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

It says blah blah blah blah blah...


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## sandybeachs

*S&P 500*

S&P500 closed up 21 points or + 2.41%.

out of the past 9 weeks S&P500 has closed up 8 times..

see below daily & weekly charts.

first chart daily 2nd chart weekly.


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## anthonyriley

*Re: S&P 500*

hey guys,
just a question what do you guys use for live cash feeds for the s&p500 caus i know on gft i have futures but i would like to know whats the best live data provider to cash.
cheers
anth


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## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

fridays spx was such a tight inside range that i went a wandering and found this;

http://ioamt.com/media/videos/brett/brettapril24/brettapril24.html

handy for anyone starting out or burnt out or knocked out or just out and about....


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone actively trade this? Seems to have gone quiet in here, I have been watching this market and demo trading it, seems to have some good moves, would be good to keep this thread active with ideas etc.


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## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Yes, through the ES (S&P Emini Futures contract) Sam.


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Yes, through the ES (S&P Emini Futures contract) Sam.




Ah good stuff, regularly or just getting into it? Long or short term? 

How have you found it lately? Seems like a lot of tight ranges and whipsaws.


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## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> How have you found it lately? Seems like a lot of tight ranges and whipsaws.




Delta neutral dreamtime


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Just got a nice little move down, shorted @917.50 - out @ 913.50. 
Lets see what happens now....912....908... who knows


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

I have just started trading it as well.


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Just got a nice little move down, shorted @917.50 - out @ 913.50.
> Lets see what happens now....912....908... who knows





Lucky you jumped off those shorts


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Lucky you jumped off those shorts




Yeah, bounced straight back up from 912, did you or anyone else have any positions? How long you been trading it moxjo?


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Seems hell bent on trying to break 923/24, failing everytime though, its just broken through again see if it can hold it this time....expecting a weak session tonight, but who knows, anything can happen.  Just as long as something does actually happen.


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah, bounced straight back up from 912, did you or anyone else have any positions? How long you been trading it moxjo?




Yeah I got on and took a few bites.... and then went to bed. Have only started trading it in the last few weeks. Just getting a feel for it atm with small positions and trading intra only. So far so good. For me trading the various index's $hits on the other forms of trading due to the volume (order always being filled) and low commissions. Not having to worry about company announcements etc is also a plus.

I prefer trading the open, but might have to start trading the close due to sleep requirements.


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Yeah I got on and took a few bites.... and then went to bed. Have only started trading it in the last few weeks. Just getting a feel for it atm with small positions and trading intra only. So far so good. For me trading the various index's $hits on the other forms of trading due to the volume (order always being filled) and low commissions. Not having to worry about company announcements etc is also a plus.
> 
> I prefer trading the open, but might have to start trading the close due to sleep requirements.




Yeah couldn't agree more, I prefer the indexes over stocks too. I prefer trading the open too, its getting a bit late though some nights, turn into an owl soon 

Mind you, I'm much better at staying up at night than I am at getting up early in the morning


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Big move down last night on the open, they were messing with peoples heads in the beginning, massive mark ups and downs, I noticed some weakness before the cash open and thought it might go down, there seemed to be more selling leading up to the open than there was buying, alot of whipsawing, locking people in etc 

I didn't enter any positions, could have entered prior to the open and caught a 10 or so point move down. Ah well, another day, another play.  

Is anyone interested or reading this at all? I can stop if people are sick of me raving on  I am mostly doing it as a personal thoughts logger type deal. 

Anyway, good trading to you all


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Is anyone interested or reading this at all? I can stop if people are sick of me raving on  I am mostly doing it as a personal thoughts logger type deal.
> 
> Anyway, good trading to you all




Keep the thread going, gives me a quick run down. I have been a bit pushed for time this week to trade much.


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

From what I can tell, it seems as though there MIGHT be some accumulation going on, couple of big vol spikes coming in now, its back up to where we were last night though, up around 922-924 seems to be res again, need to wait and see though, wait for something more obvious, I don't want to say anything concrete as I think its pointless trying to predict what the market is going to do, anything can happen, I am just observing whats happening NOW and seeing if I can spot anything.  

res @ 922-24ish
sup @ 910-12ish

10 mins till open....whip it! whip it goooood! 

Anyone else, feel free to add to this thread, go ya hardest


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

That base on base action soon came to an end.


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> That base on base action soon came to an end.




Are you watching/trading the ES?


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Are you watching/trading the ES?




Ya took a trade short but a bit slow and stop got hit. Was long but out


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Indeed they must have had some interest in the upside, nice move up on the open, broken through 924 now, whether it can stay up there is another thing.


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## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

I'm done sammy... see you next redeye trade session


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## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> I'm done sammy... see you next redeye trade session





Haha no probs mo, catchya tomorrow :goodnight


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

How did you go last night SC?
Think I might try a morning trade, too tired tonight.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> How did you go last night SC?
> Think I might try a morning trade, too tired tonight.




Finished up when you did , actually just woke up, tried having a quick nap just now, dunno if its worked though, still pretty tired....you watching it now? Just tanked big time, 60000+ volume and down @ 906 in 15m. 

Ahh, unemployment rate rose. This should be interesting, wish I was awake before now haha


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Finished up when you did , actually just woke up, tried having a quick nap just now, dunno if its worked though, still pretty tired....you watching it now? Just tanked big time, 60000+ volume and down @ 906 in 15m.
> 
> Ahh, unemployment rate rose. This should be interesting, wish I was awake before now haha




Damn missed the open and close. Also some easy trades as well by the look of it 

I will have to add coffee to my bag of tricks


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Damn missed the open and close. Also some easy trades as well by the look of it
> 
> I will have to add coffee to my bag of tricks





Yeah I missed the close too, got the open though, there was indeed some nice entries, about an 8 point move down in the last part of the session. 

Couple of red bulls next time


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I missed the close too, got the open though, there was indeed some nice entries, about an 8 point move down in the last part of the session.
> 
> Couple of red bulls next time




SC you ever hold S&P overnight(day)?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> SC you ever hold S&P overnight(day)?




Nope never, I'm usually in and out in a few minutes....hour or two at the most, depending on the analysis and move, if the longer time frames are showing signs of a decent move then I'll stay in, but if its a quick jump in and out against the trend(which I try not to do) then it will be a few minutes. 

I've heard too many horror stories of people holding overnight, and my father actually did it, so its something I don't want to do. 

You?


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nope never, I'm usually in and out in a few minutes....hour or two at the most, depending on the analysis and move, if the longer time frames are showing signs of a decent move then I'll stay in, but if its a quick jump in and out against the trend(which I try not to do) then it will be a few minutes.
> 
> I've heard too many horror stories of people holding overnight, and my father actually did it, so its something I don't want to do.
> 
> You?




Yeah, I'm the same. 

One time I accidentally left a cfd trade on overnight on one of the indexes (when I was just starting out on cfds). Lucky for me the market moved in my favor and I woke up to 7k the next day, could have easily been a horror story. 

I don't know how Ivant manages to sleep at night with his trades left on for weeks.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Yeah, I'm the same.
> 
> One time I accidentally left a cfd trade on overnight on one of the indexes (when I was just starting out on cfds). Lucky for me the market moved in my favor and I woke up to 7k the next day, could have easily been a horror story.
> 
> I don't know how Ivant manages to sleep at night with his trades left on for weeks.




Yeah thats like what my father did, he held MQG overnight and woke up the next morning up 6k, turned his 5k into 25k in 2 months, then lost it all holding overnight on a profit announcement, and stayed in the trade as it went against him, classic mistakes that alot of us make I guess. So I'm taking that as a lesson to learn from and not going to hold overnight. 

Interesting to note that we've broken the 900 mark again too.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Here is a nice little trade I watched last night, was fairly quiet obviously with US on holiday, still had a nice little setup though that I jotted down live. Nothing major but I was happy with how it went, considering my skill level  

Heres how it went for those interested......


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Here is a nice little trade I watched last night, was fairly quiet obviously with US on holiday, still had a nice little setup though that I jotted down live. Nothing major but I was happy with how it went, considering my skill level
> 
> Heres how it went for those interested......




nice work......pity the asf threads don't allow me to give kudos....3 lower closes on each bar...but, the real answer lays within the prior 3 red bars....failure to get higher....this allows you to look for info from the new low (not completed in the pic) and to see what volume is there from s/d ....although the s/r origines are unlikely to play out at that time of day with no cash hours and holidays etc, the ideas to get supply or distribute are the same, just from diff players.....allowing the test of the supply.....the overall view is sell into the upmove, test test level, who'll follow.... the second move up is weak and the larger players sell straight into that....this tends to show where the lean is....are the larger players gaining supply or gaining liquidity?.....the point is to allow the trade to confrm an exit, giving you room to allow profit to come to the pos......and  so you can better read the flow of the bars....mechanising the market is fine, within the range established .....moving the time frame up allows you to take on more of the flow and allows you to see if the moves are an attempt to break-out and in combining the larger time frame you can narrate the bigger picture, again, allowing the pos freedom to take more....there are a lot of actions within this corrective cluster and the further back you go the more likely you can decide if the prior red bars are saying the larger players having left already and which bars are either head-fakes or weak sup/dem ....you don't know, until confirmed, how far the move is going.....allow your pos to benefit with a reverse signal.....a confirmed get-out is as valuable as a confirmed get-in signal if you are going to mechanise.....telling the story of a larger s/r and s/d that surrounds the move youre looking to enter may change your view on exiting too early....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> nice work......pity the asf threads don't allow me to give kudos....3 lower closes on each bar...but, the real answer lays within the prior 3 red bars....failure to get higher....this allows you to look for info from the new low (not completed in the pic) and to see what volume is there from s/d ....although the s/r origines are unlikely to play out at that time of day with no cash hours and holidays etc, the ideas to get supply or distribute are the same, just from diff players.....allowing the test of the supply.....the overall view is sell into the upmove, test test level, who'll follow.... the second move up is weak and the larger players sell straight into that....this tends to show where the lean is....are the larger players gaining supply or gaining liquidity?.....the point is to allow the trade to confrm an exit, giving you room to allow profit to come to the pos......and  so you can better read the flow of the bars....mechanising the market is fine, within the range established .....moving the time frame up allows you to take on more of the flow and allows you to see if the moves are an attempt to break-out and in combining the larger time frame you can narrate the bigger picture, again, allowing the pos freedom to take more....there are a lot of actions within this corrective cluster and the further back you go the more likely you can decide if the prior red bars are saying the larger players having left already and which bars are either head-fakes or weak sup/dem ....you don't know, until confirmed, how far the move is going.....allow your pos to benefit with a reverse signal.....a confirmed get-out is as valuable as a confirmed get-in signal if you are going to mechanise.....telling the story of a larger s/r and s/d that surrounds the move youre looking to enter may change your view on exiting too early....





Are you saying I need to look at larger timeframes? And stay in the trade longer? 

I'm watching 5 timeframes on the ES, and the only reason I got out of that trade is because the latest bar on that screenshot is actually the market closed, I got out on the previous bar on the low of the small range it was trading in, I don't want to be holding overnight or especially over weekends. 

How would you handle this? You do longer term trades?


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> and the only reason I got out of that trade is because the latest bar on that screenshot is actually the market closed. I don't want to be holding overnight or especially over weekends.




Might have missed that piece of info off the chart.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Are you saying I need to look at larger timeframes? And stay in the trade longer?
> 
> I'm watching 5 timeframes on the ES, and the only reason I got out of that trade is because the latest bar on that screenshot is actually the market closed, I got out on the previous bar on the low of the small range it was trading in, I don't want to be holding overnight or especially over weekends.
> 
> How would you handle this? You do longer term trades?




it's a good trade.....i wasnt aware, that platform closed at that time and you can't beat the reason for the close.....the mirror i use kept going for a few hours more....anyways, as per the mail, the dax has blown through daily sup and both the dax/ftse should continue to lead the us downward......gotta like those overly obvious 'everyone can see em' h/s patterns......

it's a good call to close those small degree trades so they don't get  whipped back against you in the stop hunt ......and worth your while thinking on the larger time scale .....i guess the markets are answering that question as we speak.....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Might have missed that piece of info off the chart.




Sorry mo, I didn't think it was relevant as I was already out of the trade by then.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Sorry mo, I didn't think it was relevant as I was already out of the trade by then.




Lol I missed it as well. Nice trade btw


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Lol I missed it as well. Nice trade btw





Whothewhatthe? What did you miss? haha now im really confused  

Thanks btw  you having a go tonight? or the close in the morning? or missing both? lol


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Whothewhatthe? What did you miss? haha now im really confused
> 
> Thanks btw  you having a go tonight? or the close in the morning? or missing both? lol




lol that the market had closed on your previous chart.
Might catch an hour or so of the open, then have another go in the morn. There is just not enough hours in the day


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

yeah same here. catch the first hour or so...

Hey check this out, how similar is the shape of the volume on this chart which is now compared to the previous one I posted, which was around the same time. Am I seeing things or does that look nearly the same? 

Coincidence?


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

Some good trades tonight sc. But my poor eyes :crap:


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

for Sam

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/07/fascinating-finding-shifting.html


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Thanks for that Joules.  

Yeah was some nice moves last night mo, did you stay up and catch any more? Got that nice 3 point move down from 889 to 886, you got some longs on the open didn't you? I enjoyed watchin the 1m actually, gotta keep sharp though, which is harder than it sounds at midnight


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah was some nice moves last night mo, did you stay up and catch any more? Got that nice 3 point move down from 889 to 886, you got some longs on the open didn't you? I enjoyed watchin the 1m actually, gotta keep sharp though, which is harder than it sounds at midnight




Yeah sold those longs when it peaked just after 9(US time). Went long again got thrown out of trade. Then took one more crack at longs about 10. Should of let them ride with a trail stop instead of closing out and going to bed.
Missed a good portion of the move


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



Kicking myself, shorted the es at 877.50, and its currently @ 870.50....869.50....but I got out on the very next bar after I entered.  Ah well next time. 


...talk about let your profits run, make sure you do it!


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

try running a trailer if you need to mechanise.....that way the market will tell you when the pos is a short-term play.....and it also allows you to take all the points avail when the pos expands....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

wtf was that??...4 point spread on the bar with huge volume on the 1min closing pretty much on the low....someone playing funny buggers in anticipation??.....whip it gooood


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> wtf was that??...4 point spread on the bar with huge volume on the 1min closing pretty much on the low....someone playing funny buggers in anticipation??.....whip it gooood




Lol, that's called the Goldman Sachs earnings result.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Lol, that's called the Goldman Sachs earnings result.




ahhhh...they release that crap an hour before the open? made a fat lot of difference haha.....im not up with the news


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> ahhhh...they release that crap an hour before the open? made a fat lot of difference haha.....im not up with the news




Yeh, if I was you, I would get a calendar (I hear Forex Factory is good by many many people), and know when news is coming out if you are going to trade intraday.  

Retail sales for US came out at 10:30pm also, several minutes after Goldman.  It was worse than expected (excluding auto sales) and is what gave the market it's second push down.

Was hard to trade though, I lost $$$ on S&P also.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, if I was you, I would get a calendar (I hear Forex Factory is good by many many people), and know when news is coming out if you are going to trade intraday.
> 
> Retail sales for US came out at 10:30pm also, several minutes after Goldman.  It was worse than expected (excluding auto sales) and is what gave the market it's second push down.
> 
> Was hard to trade though, I lost $$$ on S&P also.




yeh I was aware of that news, retail sales etc, wasn't aware of the GS announcement though....I keep a close eye on the calendar at FF, just don't follow company announcements etc....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

LOL  Anyone wanna have a crack at when the news came out?


----------



## ivant

*Re: S&P 500*

How's that for a spike! That was a heck of a burst. Interesting to see if this gets sold off by EOD? About time Goldman starts dumping its stocks. Today is a great day for it. Abby Cohen from GS said she was looking for 250k. Her first correct call since saying you should go long on the Nasdaq in 2000 when the index was 5100. Oh whoops.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

you trading S & P tonight SC?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



ivant said:


> How's that for a spike! That was a heck of a burst. Interesting to see if this gets sold off by EOD? About time Goldman starts dumping its stocks. Today is a great day for it. Abby Cohen from GS said she was looking for 250k. Her first correct call since saying you should go long on the Nasdaq in 2000 when the index was 5100. Oh whoops.




Indeed it will be interesting, it looks quite strong, it will definitely need to be tested, daily looks quite strong...if it can hold that is, 5m just had a beaut entry, for a quick little trade, nice test of the news bar which it then broke, lets see if it can crack the 6.50 high  are you short ivan?

Yeah mo, might check it out, yourself?


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah mo, might check it out, yourself?





Might see how it opens


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

Looks like strong open on the jobless rate data. Must be in for a decent drop sooner or later.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Here is a nice entry from tonight.....that I completely cocked up on, got out too early because I am impatient, and am now going to gauge my eyes out with a plastic spoon....ahem..anyway, here tis  looking like another possible test now as I type up near 1011.75, bar is yet to close though so will wait and see. 

trade to trade well  night all.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: S&P 500*

Punters in the US saying this has been overbought for a few weeks. They may be right. They may have missed the boat too and are talking it down for an entry.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



kennas said:


> Punters in the US saying this has been overbought for a few weeks. They may be right. They may have missed the boat too and are talking it down for an entry.




I know a lot saying dow to 10,000 - 13,000, then it will really be cooking with gas


----------



## shag

*Re: S&P 500*



kennas said:


> Punters in the US saying this has been overbought for a few weeks. They may be right. They may have missed the boat too and are talking it down for an entry.




yes gets a bit tiresome a few trying to talk the market down
esp. those trying to talk bhp etc back, in aus its like trying to keep the tide out.
if our market didnt see so much o/s deleveraging, id suspect it would barely have fallen much in this pullback
like the aus economy never even went into recession, and its all about comparisoms and not pendantics to me. god whats a 30pc temporary pullback in iron ore and similar for coal(from record prices) when everyone else is struggling relatively.
theres plenty of gravey for all here, and the stronger nations will only get stronger in this environment.
the haircut in revenues might hopefully bring some efficiencies too statewise.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

The ES behaved superbly last night, best moves I have seen in a while considering the market thats been of late. 

Here is a great entry on no demand just before the market opened, I took the position live on my paper account, got out too early...again(must stop doing this) but thats a pretty good move, can see at the bottom, the black bar that has the lowest low, a lot of buying there, floats up, then marked back down to test that same high volume area from the black bar, volume is low relative to the demand bar, so it then proceeds back up to 996ish I think it was. 

I will try and get some live trades happening in here if anyone is interested, most of you probably thinking "yeah yeah, everyones a winner in hindsight"


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

Nice trade SC, I have been getting out to early on trades as well lately

This thread has been a little quiet. Live trades would be welcome addition


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone up?

Sell 990 now.  Free money!


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Anyone up?
> 
> Sell 990 now.  Free money!




I wasn't awake, no.
But great call MRC & Co - free money it was.

Can I give you my phone number for a call the next time? LOL


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> I wasn't awake, no.
> But great call MRC & Co - free money it was.
> 
> Can I give you my phone number for a call the next time? LOL




ha ha, oh, I'm disappointed nobody got on it!    That was one of the two free money trades of the day!


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: S&P 500*

Correct me if Im wrong but when you posted that the sp500 was a sell at 990 it only went as low as 989 now its at 996 as I type.

It started the day off today pretty weak but all of a sudden took off.Maybe some news has come out of the US not sure atm.

  I dont see any free money there at all.Am I missing something.I think you are pretty game shorting into this market atm.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



tasmanian said:


> Correct me if Im wrong but when you posted that the sp500 was a sell at 990 it only went as low as 989 now its at 996 as I type.
> 
> It started the day off today pretty weak but all of a sudden took off.Maybe some news has come out of the US not sure atm.
> 
> I dont see any free money there at all.Am I missing something.I think you are pretty game shorting into this market atm.




It went down to 976.75, from 990, is quite a nice trade.


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: S&P 500*

No worries thanks for that.I saw it at 990 and never saw it go much less.

cheers


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



tasmanian said:


> No worries thanks for that.I saw it at 990 and never saw it go much less.
> 
> cheers




Could it be your data feed tasmanian?  Sounds weird.
I have attached a 10-min candle chart from when MRC posted to now, I marked where he made his post with two crosses.  (Click on the image for a clearer view).


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: S&P 500*

Gday Timmy,

    No my data feed is ok just my bad.

Yeah your chart clears it up.

cheers


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: S&P 500*

Timmy,

    Where do you get your charts from?Is that live candle sticks or delayed.As in do the candles appear every 10mins or whatever time u set it at?

Id like a live candle stick charting program where the candles appear every 5,10 mins or whatever timeframe you set it at.

any help much appreciated.

cheers


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

That program is Investor R/T, the data feed is DTN.  Yes, live data and live charts, candles form as the data comes through and you can set the timeframe (10 mins, 5 mins, 18 seconds .... whatever you want), it does point and figure, range, tick, constant volume, loads of stuff.

There are a lot of programs that will do what you want, NinjaTrader, Ensign Charts, Tradestation, Market Delta - and there are more too.  I really like I R/T, which is why I chose it, but they are all pretty good.

Data feeds I found DTN the best, by far.

Investor R/T and DTN both have free trials if you want to try them (pretty much every program seems to have a free trial available).

EDIT:  I should add that most brokers out of the US will provide free data and charts (free in the sense that you pay for it through bro, of course).


----------



## tasmanian

*Re: S&P 500*

Timmy,

  Thanks for the info much appreciated.Ill have a look through a few of those providers and see what I like the best.

Thanks again awesome


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

KAPOW! I'm taking a wild guess, the news wasn't as good as "analysts expected" ?


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> KAPOW! I'm taking a wild guess, the news wasn't as good as "analysts expected" ?




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMhGnVzXaSfM

maby that?? who knows in this crazy mixed up world HA!


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

ES pretty bullish last night.
But I think she hit resistance at 1025.
My guess is back down early next week.
Fair amount of volume in the etfs on the peak after the housing news, I think the pros shorted into that news.
Intraday epcr really low at 0.40.(overbought)
USD rose on that news as well.(I still think its a 'safe haven' indicator at present)
Only thing worrying me is that us bonds are still falling, but they do weird things prior to auctions, apparently more big bond auctions next week.

Anyone else got an opinion on early next week's ES?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

you can see my thoughts on my blog in my signature, but I am bullish over the next few weeks, weekly chart looks promising, but time will tell, its possible they could have made the most of the speech and shorted into it.


----------



## AzzaB80

*Re: S&P 500*

I've got a feeling next stop is 1056. The bears couldn’t get on with it earlier in the week with any break being bought up pretty convincingly. This will definitely give extra confidence to any longer term money sitting on the sidelines wanting to get involved. However in saying that volume was pretty ordinary last night in the ES and September is historically a pretty bad month.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Last night got me nervous for more downside for the first time in a while.  US Treasuries had a good rally; this may be just because there are Fed activities this week and there was a move to support the USTs, dunno.  But when the ES broke to new highs the Treasuries got bought... weird.

ZNU9 daily chart attached.

The other thing that concerns me was the move (in the ES) lower in the afternoon to close low.  I haven't seen this in a while, can't recall it in the past few weeks anyway.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Yeah last night was interesting, didn't seem too interested in going up, didn't manage to break the globex session highs, which was unusual considering the activity of late. They could be testing the down side, tonight will be interesting.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> The other thing that concerns me was the move (in the ES) lower in the afternoon to close low.  I haven't seen this in a while, can't recall it in the past few weeks anyway.




I went to bed and my short got stopped out about one point from the top
That will teach me for putting on a  half assed stop because I'm tired. Copped a small loss from the buying to stop, and a large loss for not being in the move 
Could not make a good trade yesterday, got hit on the spi as well


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> I went to bed and my short got stopped out about one point from the top
> That will teach me for putting on a  half assed stop because I'm tired. Copped a small loss from the buying to stop, and a large loss for not being in the move
> Could not make a good trade yesterday, got hit on the spi as well




hope you're riding the current move up on the spi, beaut entry and i missed the damn thing  too busy fartin around in my office. hope someones riding it


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> hope you're riding the current move up on the spi, beaut entry and i missed the damn thing  too busy fartin around in my office. hope someones riding it




dunno how to edit my first post? but if anyones interested, i have put it up on my blog in my signature, the trade I missed that is


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> dunno how to edit my first post? but if anyones interested, i have put it up on my blog in my signature, the trade I missed that is




good explanation and charts dude. Have you ever thought about using candles or bars where it shows the open aswell?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



white_goodman said:


> good explanation and charts dude. Have you ever thought about using candles or bars where it shows the open aswell?




cheers white  nah don't care for the open ,only interested in the high low and close, I can use candles if I want but i'm used to it how it is now, I personally find it much easier to read how it is. 

We have had a very similar move to that trade I posted, back down to 4380 again, cram all the action in the last hour and a half why don't they  

anyway, suppose I better shutup about the SPI, this is the S&P thread after all


----------



## johnnyg

*Re: S&P 500*

Nice Blog Sam.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



johnnyg said:


> Nice Blog Sam.




Thanks johnny


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone trading tonight?


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*



moXJO said:


> Anyone trading tonight?





watching that verticle line .not trading it tho  too slow


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



nunthewiser said:


> watching that verticle line .not trading it tho  too slow




I'm short as of 1024 which will probably either end up the resist or support


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

they must have heard me


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*

I went long at 1014 earlier this arvo but didn't like the look of PA so got out at break even as price chopped around 

trade the plan stupid


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

1012 below held last night and just held in europe.
I think shorting tonight will work for a swing down.
Im short 1026.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*



Real1ty said:


> I went long at 1014 earlier this arvo but didn't like the look of PA so got out at break even as price chopped around
> 
> trade the plan stupid




good call.

 If it busts past 1027.5 I will close and go to bed. Just as long as it doesn't bounce between 1024 -1027.5


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

I thought we may have ran red off the bat tonight


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

She looks like she might range for a while, im out at 1022.


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> She looks like she might range for a while, im out at 1022.





well traded , nothing in hindsight there


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

I'm out at 1020 should be enough beer money for another day, plus my eyes hurt


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

Might drift down to 1015 or a bit above? I'm to tired to stick around


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

I watch volume on bonds, currencies, copper and oil to reveal what the pros really think of a data release. The volume on futures and stocks after a data release can be confusing/unhelpful.

ES now below 1019, I exited too early as usual.


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: S&P 500*

I'm patiently waiting for a 4th qtr slump in the oil price but that's just me!

Put me on ignore if you like!


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*

you both made a buck . well done ........ can always re-enter if you feel theres more to it .......... intresting night on reasonably good data


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*

hitting overdrive in the smackdown................intresting night indeed


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*

Im hearing on the wires wells fargo is in some kind of trouble.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*

Nunny, whats your average hold time?


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

blahh what happened here  ran through where I thought it would hold.

Might close a couple put positions on djx, better leave some on in case this is GFC mark II. 

The banks bodgy accounting rules finally catching up to the market or something?


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Nunny, whats your average hold time?




indicies or stocks?

indicies mainly intraday 

stocks vary long and short


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



nunthewiser said:


> hitting overdrive in the smackdown................intresting night indeed




I cant believe she tickled 1000.
I can hear all the bears tomorrow  'I told yous all'...
I'm guessing it will rest here and retrace up for a while, maybe during asia time.
Gotta luv volatility. Two weeks ranging really bored me.


----------



## moXJO

*Re: S&P 500*

S&P doing a whole lota nothing so far


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Is it just me or does the ES appear to be under performing today?  Back from the long weekend, the AUD is strong, EUR too, oil, gold ... meanwhile the S&P struggling to get above its open (so far anyway).


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Is it just me or does the ES appear to be under performing today?  Back from the long weekend, the AUD is strong, EUR too, oil, gold ... meanwhile the S&P struggling to get above its open (so far anyway).





Its just chopping around in a range now after they tried to sell it off on the open.

It had a decent run up from this afternoon and i think currencies are mainly advancing on $ weakness, along with Oil.

Still early though but i'm going to sleep now so will see where we end up in the morning


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Bit late to bring this up for today, should have asked about it earlier.

Anyone any thoughts on the USTreasuries?  Very strong 3-day down move (chart below).  Mkt looking for stronger economic figures this week?  Just a technical move down from price resistance?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

few good entries at the open there for any of the quick traders. posted some examples on my blog for those interested. it don't seem to interested in heading above 1070 at this stage, need to see a wide push high volume attempt through, so far we're only getting narrow spread stuff all volume, markets rolling over as I type, this on the 1m im talking. 

trade to trade well


----------



## AzzaB80

*Re: S&P 500*

1082 is the key level here I think everybody will be watching. If we are to get any serious selling this is the place. 

Interesting to note that that Thursday was the first real sign of selling we have seen for some time. I account this to longer term traders doing some early profit taking before we attempt to fill the 1082-1102 gap.

Adding to this fact the US dollar is starting to look way oversold and the index has bounced off key support, doesn't bold well for US equities.

Next week has the possibility of being a real turning point in the market I believe.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Semi's made a lower high last week.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH

Depends if you believe they have leading qualities.

ES 1072 might be the top that we reached thursday midnight with the manufacturing index number. It was 'better than expected' but I think there was shorting into that news because the es fell 15 after it.

But the sideways es movement of the last 48 hours could be a continuation phase, friday's asian lod had good volume to it. As you say, it all depends if the usd and us bonds start to rise or go sideways.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



AzzaB80 said:


> Adding to this fact the US dollar ... index has bounced off key support, doesn't bold well for US equities.






Broadway said:


> Semi's made a lower high last week.
> As you say, it all depends if the usd and us bonds start to rise or go sideways.




Good info thanks guys. 

 From another 'fundamental' perspective I think this is a very useful article:
Money figures show there's trouble ahead
In summary, _"Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic."_
Author is Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph.

Also, and more specifically for the S&P500, and the ES is this:
Rushing to the Exits?
There are more and more of these sorts of discussions - when will the easing begin to be wound back?  Pretty much everyone concludes that it is way too early, but the prevalence of these discussions makes me think there is a lot of official concern about the weakness of the USD (and what that may entail for the confidence in US assets, both equities and bonds) and there may well be an increase in official news and leaks and signals about coming tightening.  If you don't want to read all of Duy's article, read his bottom line:

_Bottom Line.  The Fed is moving toward the exit as they look toward the conclusion of their securities purchases programs.  But it is not clear that such a move is justified by their own forecasts or the inflation/wage/employment data.  There may be an internal fear they have gone too far, a fear that the hawks can exploit. To be sure, I see no reason to expect the Fed will raise rates for a long time.  And the Fed maintains it policy flexibility, claiming to be ready to revive asset purchases should economic or financial conditions justify.  *But I now suspect the bar for renewed expansion of Fed accommodation may be much higher than I had anticipated.*  And that the dominant push for expansion would have to come from financial market conditions, while they would be willing to tolerate persistently high unemployment rates so long as U. Michigan inflation expectations say elevated, regardless of the actual inflation data._  (My bolding).

Given the ES has been driven by the liquidity trade, this is not a good sign.

Having said all this, Broadway, your point about the price action on the ES is a good one.  The sell-off after the post-FOMC highs has only been about 35 points, which is really not much.  But, it closed Friday near (basically on) its lows.  I will be watching for whether the price action indicates renewed accumulation (or not) for clues as to how the market is reading these developments.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

My current guess for next week is ranged ES action for a few days. Maybe between 1035 and 1070. On Friday night around 2-3am, ES 1036 was supported by strong volume in ES, YM and the liquid ETFs and even some important stocks like GS.

Depends alot on Oil lately, it seems to be in a down trend which could lead us lower if it doesn't stop. Semi's not helpful on Friday.

Im hoping for Japan to have a really strong volume LOD on Monday then I'll be all over the ES with longs.

The elephant in the room is Iran and that nuclear refinement issue.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

11 points down in 9 minutes, I think the US woke up on the wrong side of the bed!


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> 11 points down in 9 minutes, I think the US woke up on the wrong side of the bed!




That would be the wrong side of the PMI data.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Real1ty said:


> That would be the wrong side of the PMI data.




Looked to me like someone got that data nice and early too.


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Looked to me like someone got that data nice and early too.




They most certainly did, much to my dismay when i returned to my monitor to prepare for the release.

Not happy at all but of course nothing you can do about it.

I'm not staying up tonight but it will be interesting to see if there is any late buying today.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Certainly went to town with it, shifted some big volume!


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*

Interesting to see the big move down a couple of minutes before the PMI release. Totally obvious the data had been leaked.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

OK - just found this out.  The company that compiles the PMI report gives the figure to its subscribers 3 minutes before the release.  Amazing ... never heard of this happening with any other figures before.

So, could be worth watching the action 3 minutes before the release ... as long as there is no spoofing going on!


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> OK - just found this out.  The company that compiles the PMI report gives the figure to its subscribers 3 minutes before the release.  Amazing ... never heard of this happening with any other figures before.
> 
> So, could be worth watching the action 3 minutes before the release ... as long as there is no spoofing going on!




Well that is quite interesting. I know news agency's are given access to data half an hour or so before big release so that they can write up article, but the journalists are held in some kind of a confinement area so they cannot leak anything.

I wonder how many people actually know about this PMI report...


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever .... 

So, from the website of the private firm that compiles and releases the Chicago PMI data:

_ISM-Chicago Business Survey | "Chicago PMI"

The ISM-Chicago Business Survey is a proven monthly 'first look' at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.

Released on the last working day of each month, the ISM-Chicago Business Survey reports the extent of expanding or contracting economic activity.

Based on a panel drawn from the membership of the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago (ISM-Chicago), the survey includes data from global business activities of the responding companies.
Subscription

Your subscription gives you access to this market-moving data 3 minutes before public release in addition to funding the business survey.

Payment can be by check, wire transfer, or PayPal._

http://www.kingbiz.com/about_barometer2.asp

Cheapest option is an email about 3 mins before the release, $US200/month.  
Conference call starting at 8.42 am (Chicago time), $US265/month

(Voices in your head are free.  Can be stopped with tinfoil hat, $5 +GST )


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever ....
> 
> So, from the website of the private firm that compiles and releases the Chicago PMI data:
> 
> _ISM-Chicago Business Survey | "Chicago PMI"
> 
> The ISM-Chicago Business Survey is a proven monthly 'first look' at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.
> 
> Released on the last working day of each month, the ISM-Chicago Business Survey reports the extent of expanding or contracting economic activity.
> 
> Based on a panel drawn from the membership of the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago (ISM-Chicago), the survey includes data from global business activities of the responding companies.
> Subscription
> 
> Your subscription gives you access to this market-moving data 3 minutes before public release in addition to funding the business survey.
> 
> Payment can be by check, wire transfer, or PayPal._
> 
> http://www.kingbiz.com/about_barometer2.asp
> 
> Cheapest option is an email about 3 mins before the release, $US200/month.
> Conference call starting at 8.42 am (Chicago time), $US265/month
> 
> (Voices in your head are free.  Can be stopped with tinfoil hat, $5 +GST )




Waayy ahead of you Timmy, I already found all of that. I think i would be better off just watching the markets reaction 3mins before the release.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever ....




Conspiricy theories are much more fun than the boring truth.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever ....





wayneL said:


> Conspiricy theories are much more fun than the boring truth.




so is lsd :walker:


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> .......... before big release.....  the journalists are held in some kind of a confinement area so they cannot leak anything....





rofl....jeez, chief, coodya lower the cone of silence


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Interesting to see the big move down a couple of minutes before the PMI release. Totally obvious the data had been leaked.




lol someone is onto us.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/09/was-the-chicago-pmi-leaked.html

edit: and here
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...ill-never-win-chicago-pmi-edition/?source=rss


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

There were some hints during yesterday that the news would be bearish. Spi/bhp had volume on peaks, hsi and k200 slid. Bonds suggested it during europe time. And right after the bullish 1030pm data the market hit some shorting.
There was even a guy on cnbc who thought it would be bad and said so beforehand.

All good fun.


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*

For the first time in months i am becoming a little bearish.

On the daily we may have made a high around 1080 and then a lower high around 1070.

If we break 1040, then i will be officially changing my avatar 

Still plenty of buying on weakness though so won't be fighting the trend until i see a definitive close below that 1040.

Not making any ridiculous calls of a new low or anything, just a healthy pull back, if it eventuates.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Nice calls in here recently guys ... good analysis, and a focus on timing.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone interested in longs today for a swing trade off the lows? Might not get profits till next week but today has to be a buying opportunity? Anyone?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

I'll be sticking with the day-trading (errr night-trading, whatever it is for us ).


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Anyone interested in longs today for a swing trade off the lows? Might not get profits till next week but today has to be a buying opportunity? Anyone?




I would wait for it to break 1025 before becoming bullish again.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

US Treasuries (10 Yr Note), 2 charts attached, one is a zoom in.

If I was a VSA man I would be looking at that volume and price action on Friday and say the market was screaming "TOP!!!!!".

If I was a Candlestick man I would be looking at that Doji (I think that's what it is, maybe a Hanging Man?  Purists, pls let me know) on Friday and say the market was screaming "TOP!!!!!".

Implications for the ES?  Well, the USTs are but one input into the picture, albeit a really, really important one IMHO, would have to think a 'buy on dips' approach for the ES.  Want to see some other things before becoming too wedded to the view, especially what the G7 produce this weekend.

Charts from Futuresource.
http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZN Z9&o=&a=D&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=VOI(1,1);


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Last week with all the talk from various Fed board members about exit strategies and the coming tightening, probably achieved what these comments were intended to achieve, a diminution in the selling of the USD heading into the G7.  Maybe.  There wasn't sufficient buying to send the USD up to any notable extent, but the down move was halted for a week.  

USD Index chart attached.

Eurodollar chart also attached - there is no sign whatsoever here of an early exit from easing policies (IMHO).

Couple of articles from Bloomberg in last hours:
Geithner Says Recovery Signs Are 'Stronger' Than Expected
_"Planning for an eventual exit is the responsible and necessary thing to do, but we are not yet in the position where it would be prudent to begin to withdraw fiscal and monetary policy support," Geithner said in remarks released after a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations._  My underlining.

G-7 Avoids Dollar Criticism, Warns Against 'Disorderly' Trading
_Group of Seven finance chiefs stopped short of singling out the weaker dollar for criticism and stuck to their mantra that "disorderly" swings in currencies threaten economic growth....
"Following the escalated rhetoric, investors may have been braced for some escalation in language," said Sophia Drossos, co-head for global foreign exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York. "Since we didn't get it, I look for the trend of dollar weakness to reassert itself."_

The signs/indicators are adding up for more dip buying in the ES, and resumption of the up move.  Not sure what day the next up move will start to kick in, but I think the down move is now going to peter out quickly.  Again, will be watching the price action, as, from a price action perspective the ES did basically close on its lows again this week (& this has to count for something), but my bias is buying going into the coming week. 

Charts again from Futuresource (hopefully these ones are a bit clearer).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

An article opposing my view of USDollar developments, from Bloomberg:

Dollar Advances Most Since June as Policy Makers Voice Support

I'll stick with my interpretation of what's going on, but obviously its not the only interpretation available.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Horrible Jobs data friday night sent the es down a bit but she hit large volume and proceeded straight up to where she was before the data. Im thinking that sort of action can only be bullish for next week.
Fingers and toes crossed as usual.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

PMI data out soon.
I think Im seeing some buying in bonds in the last half hour.
Maybe the pros are thinking it might be worse than expected.
Good luck if your trading the data release.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> PMI data out soon.
> I think Im seeing some buying in bonds in the last half hour.
> Maybe the pros are thinking it might be worse than expected.
> Good luck if your trading the data release.




There is a divergence between Bunds and 10year t-notes atm because news came out Iran developed a detonator that could trigger a nuclear weapon.

p.s. PMI was a total nonevent. Was interesting to see plenty of liquidity being offered right up until the announcement.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> There is a divergence between Bunds and 10year t-notes atm because news came out Iran developed a detonator that could trigger a nuclear weapon.




Thanks NS


----------



## AzzaB80

*Re: S&P 500*

Good article from Andy Xie who is turning out to be one of my favourite economists. His views make a lot of sense to me
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-09-28/110267252.html
"Financial markets are still maximum bearish on the dollar. Liquidity is being channeled out of dollar into all other assets. This is why there is such a high correlation between the dollar and other assets. I think this is the most crowded trade in the world. When the dollar reverses, the short squeeze could cause a global crisis."

Something to keep in mind


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*



Real1ty said:


> For the first time in months i am becoming a little bearish.
> 
> On the daily we may have made a high around 1080 and then a lower high around 1070.
> 
> If we break 1040, then i will be officially changing my avatar
> 
> Still plenty of buying on weakness though so won't be fighting the trend until i see a definitive close below that 1040.
> 
> Not making any ridiculous calls of a new low or anything, just a healthy pull back, if it eventuates.




Well so much for that call and glad i didn't change my avatar, as i much prefer to Bears to look at it each day 

S&P surging as i type and it's starting to look like this market will be hard to keep down with buying still so strong on weakness.

Looks to me like the "Money on the sidelines" is pretty valid and combined with the short $ long equities trade the flavour atm any significant downside move looks like a long shot.

Technically we haven't invalidated the first lower high we made, (so a down trend beginning is still possible) but it sure feels like we will.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Yep she climbed from last thursday at 1020 to 1045 now. There was just too much dip buying on the slide last wednesday for it to go much farther down.

But from volumes I'm seeing tonight in futures and last night's US volumes, maybe she has a down night tonight and maybe for a few days. Ive been wrong before though.
Good luck.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

I haven't seen/heard much reference to reporting season.  

A little about how last reporting season the S&P went up (yeah, thanks for that).  

Last time, though, leading in, there was quite a lot of prior discussion about how reporting season would bring the rally unstuck which left the upside vulnerable when the 'surprise' stronger results came in.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Columbus Day in the US today.  
The exchanges are open.
Banks are closed (hey, that's gotta be good for the US economy ).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Source:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/be...rts-this-week-bespokes-earnings-calendar.html

_Tuesday's big reports include JNJ before the open and CSX and INTC after the close.  
JP Morgan (JPM) is the first big financial to report on Wednesday morning, 
and then on Thursday we get reports from Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) before the open 
and Google (GOOG) and IBM after the close.  Bank of America (BAC), General Electric (GE), and Halliburton finish off the week of reports on Friday morning._


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Source:
> http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/be...rts-this-week-bespokes-earnings-calendar.html
> 
> _Tuesday's big reports include JNJ before the open and CSX and INTC after the close.
> JP Morgan (JPM) is the first big financial to report on Wednesday morning,
> and then on Thursday we get reports from Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) before the open
> and Google (GOOG) and IBM after the close.  Bank of America (BAC), General Electric (GE), and Halliburton finish off the week of reports on Friday morning._



Bill Luby http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/ notes flat option vols leading into earnings.



> Note that just prior to the last two earnings reports, implied volatility rose due to the uncertainty and potential for higher volatility associated with an earnings surprise. This time around, however, the lack of movement in implied volatility – as well as the proximity of the IV level to historical volatility – suggests that investors are not expecting any surprises at all. In fact, this situation is not specific to JPMorgan, but is also mirrored at Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and even quasi-financial General Electric. Not surprisingly, the bank ETFs, such as KBE, and the financial sector ETF, XLF, show a similar pattern.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> Bill Luby http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/ notes flat option vols leading into earnings.




Thanks Wayne, fits with my impression of the lack of 'buzz' around this reporting season:



Timmy said:


> I haven't seen/heard much reference to reporting season.




I expect a bit more action when the banks start to report.  GS boosted the banks last week.  I don't _think _it was the kiss of death, but maybe I am not cynical enough yet.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*

*wayneL notes the red numbers tonight with cautious satisfaction. 

*wayneL will become very smug if this turns into a proper double top.

Ref Blog posts.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> *wayneL notes the red numbers tonight with cautious satisfaction.
> 
> *wayneL will become very smug if this turns into a proper double top.
> 
> Ref Blog posts.




It very well might be. I had a big gain today on some investments in high yielding currencies. Thing is, as liquidity has moved into the market (with UK and US open), its been nothing but down trend. Did you write those gold oppies yet?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> *wayneL notes the red numbers tonight with cautious satisfaction.
> 
> *wayneL will become very smug if this turns into a proper double top.
> 
> Ref Blog posts.




Potential smugness torpedoed by Intel. Guru status on hold.


----------



## mazzatelli

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> Potential smugness torpedoed by Intel. Guru status on hold.




lol
As discussed on your blog, I hope GOOG holds for this week, and then you can have your move ...please God
LMAO


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> Potential smugness torpedoed by Intel. Guru status on hold.





JP morgans results MAY take a shine off 

futures still climbing tho


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*

JP Morgan smashed expectations.

although you can't convince me that the "experts" predicitions aren't supposed to be undervalued.


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*



> JPMorgan Chase, the first of the big banks to report third-quarter earnings, says its loan losses are still high and are expected to remain that way for the foreseeable future, a troubling sign for the economy.




hence my post


----------



## Largesse

*Re: S&P 500*

RE : JPMoregain

Ripped from another board:



> Interesting notes:
> Adjusted assets, a non-GAAP financial measure, equals total assets minus (1) securities purchased under resale agreements and securities borrowed less securities sold, not yet purchased; (2) assets of consolidated variable interest
> entities ("VIEs"); (3) cash and securities segregated and on deposit for regulatory and other purposes; (4) goodwill and intangibles; (5) securities received as collateral; and (6) investments purchased under the Asset-Backed
> Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. The amount of adjusted assets is presented to assist the reader in comparing the Investment Bank's ("IB") asset and capital levels to other investment banks in the
> securities industry. Asset-to-equity leverage ratios are commonly used as one measure to assess a company’s capital adequacy. IB believes an adjusted asset amount that excludes the assets discussed above, which were considered
> to have a low risk profile, provides a more meaningful measure of balance sheet leverage in the securities industry.
> 
> (a) Results for year-to-date 2008 include four months of the combined Firm’s (JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s and Bear Stearns’) results and five months of heritage JPMorgan Chase & Co results.
> 
> (d) Represents loans from the Washington Mutual Master Trust, which were consolidated onto the Firm's balance sheet at fair value during the second quarter of 2009. No allowance for loan losses was recorded for these loans.
> 
> 
> These two read well together lol.
> 
> (c) Excludes home lending purchased credit-impaired loans that were acquired as part of the Washington Mutual transaction. These loans are accounted for on a pool basis, and the pools are considered to be performing. Also excludes loans held-for-sale and loans at fair value.
> 
> (c) Excludes the impact of purchased credit-impaired loans that were acquired as part of the Washington Mutual transaction. These loans were accounted for at fair value on the acquisition date,] which incorporated management's estimate,as of that date, of credit losses over the remaining life of the portfolio.The allowance for loan losses associated with these loans was $1.1 billion at September 30, 2009. No allowance for loan losses was recorded for these loans as of June 30, 2009, March 31, 2009, December 31, 2008, and September 30, 2008.


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*

Set to be a big night tonight! 
There is alot riding on tonight with bank of america and GE to report.
whats everyones thoughts? whats the vibe


----------



## beerwm

*Re: S&P 500*

anyone got a good site for up-to-date reports. as they happen

forex factory calendar is abit general


----------



## seasprite

*Re: S&P 500*



lukeaye said:


> Set to be a big night tonight!
> There is alot riding on tonight with bank of america and GE to report.
> whats everyones thoughts? whats the vibe




 I would be surprised if it broke above the line , EUR/USD in same predicament on the day/3 year graph . Mind you oil broke out 5 weeks early in my book.


----------



## cutz

*Re: S&P 500*



beerwm said:


> anyone got a good site for up-to-date reports. as they happen
> 
> forex factory calendar is abit general




G'Day,

This site isn't too bad http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsviewer


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



beerwm said:


> anyone got a good site for up-to-date reports. as they happen
> 
> forex factory calendar is abit general




Getting timely news, as a retail futures trader ... fuggedaboudit.  That's my experience.  

Cutz has referred to MarketWatch NewsViewer, that's what I use too but it is still well behind a source like Bloomberg (paid service).

For earnings reports, there is Earnings.com.  They provide too much!  Having said that the times of releases are usually imprecise (watch out for the times they do quote, that is usually an after-the-release webcast from the company).


----------



## beerwm

*Re: S&P 500*

cheers guys,

ill give it a look


----------



## mazzatelli

*Re: S&P 500*

F*ck me - ICE


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

I might stick my neck out for chopping.

Last week seemed like a good place for a major top.

Bottoms arrive when news is terrible and tops arrive when news is really good, like what we heard from Intel and GoldmanSachs. 

Banks and semis have fallen since these 2 reports and the only thing holding the ES up is an oil rally. If oil turns down, it might be a case of 'watch out below'.

We'll see I guess.

Have a good week.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Thanks Broadway - that's what necks are for I guess .

Earnings season full steam this week.  Apparently there are 135 S&P500 companies reporting through to Friday.  Earnings.com for those wanting to track these, but I think they are only going to look at 'featured' companies.  There should be a good amount of volatility as these earnings reports come - maybe some of the options traders can keep us informed of developments in the VIX.  

I am still more inclined to be buying dips than selling rallies, but only on a 'trend is friend' basis.  Two-way traffic this week is the best bet, I think.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

First bank to be downgraded to a sell - Wells Fargo.

ES falls 20+ points into close.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0YBqly0Kz2o

Volatile reporting season. 

But im having trouble staying awake for it 

Es now 1076, banks leading us lower maybe.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

last nights move wasn't that inspiring for the upside, volume wasn't too impressive, could be a bit of no demand in there, spread is fairly wide though. might see a push back down tonight towards 1071ish again, being friday might help that too. time will tell  I'm talkin the ES btw. Its been a good week for trading, actually a bit of movement again. 

trade well guys


----------



## seasprite

*Re: S&P 500*

I have to go the other way and say 1108ish


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



seasprite said:


> I have to go the other way and say 1108ish




Interesting, got a reason why?


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Interesting, got a reason why?




I think an upside break. Third consolidation at the high. Last nights move on low volume could represent an absence of supply now. perhaps the weeks moves down have removed sellers and now only demand remains, hence the relatively easy move up last night.

The other reason is im holding longs. So aot of wishful thinking involved.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



lukeaye said:


> I think an upside break. Third consolidation at the high. Last nights move on low volume could represent an absence of supply now. perhaps the weeks moves down have removed sellers and now only demand remains, hence the relatively easy move up last night.
> 
> The other reason is im holding longs. So aot of wishful thinking involved.




Valid points, still a bit of supply up there though, that being said I can't really see any major supply coming in just yet overall, just minor tests as we keep rising. I hope it goes well for your longs


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: S&P 500*

The one common denominator so far has been sustained buying.

Many on this and other forums have looked for reasons to not believe the moves, call for a large correction or call it over bought etc etc but every dip has seen sustained buying.

It started to look like we were going down when we made a lower high and lower low (I called it in this thread and was completely wrong) but this was met with a move from 1011 to where we are now at 1092, and a touch or two at 1100, with 11 green days out of 15.

Apart from scalping some shorts, this has proved to be a very difficult market to short and there are very few signs that any serious selling will eventuate in the near term.


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*



Real1ty said:


> The one common denominator so far has been sustained buying.
> 
> Many on this and other forums have looked for reasons to not believe the moves, call for a large correction or call it over bought etc etc but every dip has seen sustained buying.
> 
> It started to look like we were going down when we made a lower high and lower low (I called it in this thread and was completely wrong) but this was met with a move from 1011 to where we are now at 1092, and a touch or two at 1100, with 11 green days out of 15.
> 
> Apart from scalping some shorts, this has proved to be a very difficult market to short and there are very few signs that any serious selling will eventuate in the near term.




Hi reality,

Love the irony of your alias btw.

There is one thing i have really started to notice though. Correct me if im thinking incorrectly here though.

I have noticed a very large increase of what i believe to be "inside selling".

I notice in many larger cap stocks that there is a certain pattern starting to unfold more prominently. We are getting small volume buys movng up into price points, that take a moderate amount of time, on narrow spreads. When these price points are hit, they are met with sharp rejections. Price moves at a larger spread, on higher volume, and at a much quicker pace.

Is this the result of "smart money" selling into the "weaker hands" at higher price points to better exit trades? These patterns i notice unfolding on 1min and 5 min charts. And Rather then buying increasing at these lower price points, its almost like the selling has just stopped.

Now i also realise there is another explanation to this pattern. But what does everyone else think?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



Real1ty said:


> The one common denominator so far has been sustained buying.
> 
> Many on this and other forums have looked for reasons to not believe the moves, call for a large correction or call it over bought etc etc but every dip has seen sustained buying.




How can they not believe it? its there in the charts, people are just silly if they look for reasons to not believe moves. I'm not calling a large correction if thats what you're implying, just _possibly_ a slight pullback to 1070ish area, but I agree with what you're saying, buying comes in very quickly on pullbacks in this current market. 



Real1ty said:


> It started to look like we were going down when we made a lower high and lower low (I called it in this thread and was completely wrong) but this was met with a move from 1011 to where we are now at 1092, and a touch or two at 1100, with 11 green days out of 15.




Even still, the buying on the "lower low" was very obvious, huge volume on the down bars closing in middle or above, back when it was around 1012.



Real1ty said:


> Apart from scalping some shorts, this has proved to be a very difficult market to short and there are very few signs that any serious selling will eventuate in the near term.




Depends, I've had some success lately with shorting the ES, but it would depend on the trader, timeframes etc. plus I tend to be drawn to shorts more than longs 

Bull moves always last longer than you expect too, hence why can't really take too much too seriously until we see a definite sign of weakness, which hasn't yet appeared.

Not picking on you, just bored and up for discussion


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*

Eeeek, Im far to scared to take shorts on any index atm.

The only shorts of taken a percentage hedges when i think things are going to pull back


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



lukeaye said:


> Eeeek, Im far to scared to take shorts on any index atm.
> 
> The only shorts of taken a percentage hedges when i think things are going to pull back





Haha don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not short biased on this market, just trading intra-day, and only when it jumps out at me.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

I was bearish for tonights session until I noticed a fair bit of late spi volume, not just at 1610, but in the last 10 minutes. Now Im thinking the ES might have a bullish night.


----------



## seasprite

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not short biased on this market, just trading intra-day, and only when it jumps out at me.




Well picked Sam , I woke up early this morning to see red, red,red and more red ,,I bet on the nag and it came in last.


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*

Up to +16 availble overnight from 15m/30m chart


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



seasprite said:


> Well picked Sam , I woke up early this morning to see red, red,red and more red ,,I bet on the nag and it came in last.




Thanks sea  low of 1071.50, close enough! But once again there was some buying down there again at 1075 at the end of the session. Monday will probably shoot back up again, lets see if we can break it next week


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Thanks sea  low of 1071.50, close enough! But once again there was some buying down there again at 1075 at the end of the session. Monday will probably shoot back up again, lets see if we can break it next week




Well, sam, of all the time to be right, this really was one i wished you weren't!

Im actually favouring a move lower now. But who knows volatility is so wild at the moment. The only thing that will save the spi monday will be internationl futures moving up before the open monday. So i hope your right again!

Here's hoping!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



lukeaye said:


> Well, sam, of all the time to be right, this really was one i wished you weren't!
> 
> Im actually favouring a move lower now. But who knows volatility is so wild at the moment. The only thing that will save the spi monday will be internationl futures moving up before the open monday. So i hope your right again!
> 
> Here's hoping!




Haha sorry! I was wishing I was wrong for your sake, you still long?? Hmm yeah it will be interesting come monday, the hourly ES shows buying at the end of the session, looking at the 4 hour though, maybe not so good, there could be a move up early in the session but volume will tell the story, we have also got the mushrooming over effect on the 4H. 

Lets see!


----------



## lukeaye

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha sorry! I was wishing I was wrong for your sake, you still long?? Hmm yeah it will be interesting come monday, the hourly ES shows buying at the end of the session, looking at the 4 hour though, maybe not so good, there could be a move up early in the session but volume will tell the story, we have also got the mushrooming over effect on the 4H.
> 
> Lets see!




Yeah well i cant close my stocks out now! O well. 

I was going to open a short last night to hedge, but i thought when the futures moved 40 points up just before open, it probably wouldnt come back down. Guess again!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Was it 1 hedge fund that pushed the market through the 1075 level in 5 minutes with 140 thousand contracts?  

Not that I know anything, but it may have been.


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Was it 1 hedge fund that pushed the market through the 1075 level in 5 minutes with 140 thousand contracts?
> 
> Not that I know anything, but it may have been.




Thats certainly ballsy.. But hey, they're up a fair bit on those contracts!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



skyQuake said:


> Thats certainly ballsy.. But hey, they're up a fair bit on those contracts!




Or a lot more to do and a lot of friends.  

Will be great to see the S&P trade back to the 1075 area and see the showdown.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Was it 1 hedge fund that pushed the market through the 1075 level in 5 minutes with 140 thousand contracts?
> 
> Not that I know anything, but it may have been.




That is good info to have tks MRC&Co.  
140,000 contracts - mind boggling amount.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Ladies, gentlemen ...

Just a reminder, though I am sure none of us will now ever forget:

9.*42* AM (Eastern)

Enjoy!


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Ladies, gentlemen ...
> 
> Just a reminder, though I am sure none of us will now ever forget:
> 
> 9.*42* AM (Eastern)
> 
> Enjoy!




wut? Elaborate plz


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Just a bit of a kerfuffle here this time four weeks ago when the Chicago PMI was released - big move at 9.42 AM as subscribers to the service get the release 3 mins before the plebs (which would be us.  See posts 175 - 188.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> That is good info to have tks MRC&Co.
> 140,000 contracts - mind boggling amount.




No no, I don't know anything, all just speculation.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> No no, I don't know anything, all just speculation.




I have been meaning to post a *big thank-you MRC&Co*.  Your speculation that there _just may have been_ 140,000 contracts belted out around that 1070 level from a single player set up a bit of a no-brainer trade on Friday. Easy short-trade points on that first re-test of just below 1070.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Yeh, only problem with shorts right now is you can't run them, always have to look for just a quick swing trade with the amount of liquidity still looking for a home.  

Alot of major markets look right on the verge of either blowing their tops right now, or really coming off for a decent retracement.  On that note, I saw Soros was talking of a 'double dip' into 2010-11 (but like always, his unsure of timing).  

Fitch just talked again that the BOE could be downgraded and the US I believe if they don't clean up their fiscal position in the coming couple of years.  News like this I would think could surely trigger a sell-off, once again looking at potential worry of further credit expansion if figures begin to dip off again once this stimulus has moved through the pipeline.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> and the US I believe if they don't clean up their fiscal position in the coming couple of years.




Ive been watching this for the past couple of months, US Debt not including future liabilities (i.e. the healthcare problem).

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/charts/charts_debt.htm

Just wait for that green line to touch the orange line and it should make the news. Not hard to guess the market's reaction to that..


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

just made a new high, wonder if it will break 1100


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

there we go, 1101, some big volume coming in. this could get interesting


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> just made a new high, wonder if it will break 1100




1103 fute


----------



## Largesse

*Re: S&P 500*

close above 1100 could see a big blow off


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

the volumes are thin for the moves from the recent retracements........the rut is lagging severely and the fins (bkx xlf + eem) are well below the highs of the currrent bounce.......if breadth stays wide, or, those other indecies play catch-up on a percentage basis then we could be game on for fast bull run to round 1205 spx.......

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937 (futes view)


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



Largesse said:


> close above 1100 could see a big blow off




your mums a big blow off, oh snap!....

i still expect it around the 1090 area tonight, or on the opposite side clear sky's till the 1150 area in the near term


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> the volumes are thin for the moves from the recent retracements........the rut is lagging severely and the fins (bkx xlf + eem) are well below the highs of the currrent bounce.......if breadth stays wide, or, those other indecies play catch-up on a percentage basis then we could be game on for fast bull run to round 1205 spx.......
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937 (futes view)




False broke the high on SnP, volumes on the run-up are becoming lower and lower and nobody bothered to push it when it got above the high (very different to the recent times it broke highs where it just blasted them away).  Panic in Asia today.  

I think we are coming off here.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> False broke the high on SnP, volumes on the run-up are becoming lower and lower and nobody bothered to push it when it got above the high (very different to the recent times it broke highs where it just blasted them away).  Panic in Asia today.
> 
> I think we are coming off here.




yep, the rut/xlf/bkx/eem continue to lag despite the trans having a reasonable and quiet run-up......and the high in the spx looked as though selling was into the high and then volume fell away......ask any elliottician (i mean a good one) and they'll tell you this current phase is least like a third-wave incline.....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

does anyone trade using the dom? i'm just watching it this morning on the ES. its quite interesting. some huge orders coming in around 1086.00, then it tanked hard, do these big orders mean anything? I don't know much about the dom, it was locked in battle from 1086 and 1085, then it let go. it seems its often the opposite, if the big orders come in when its shooting up, the move will often be in the other direction, hmmm.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

I can't see much edge in watching S&P order flow, every order seems a big order.  3000 lots get crunched in a milisecond, infact I find watching any form of day trading the S&P one of the hardest things out there.

But I also see cable tried to breakout but was stopped by the fitch news, and most importantly, AUD/USD (the king of currency land 'risk on' trades) also tried to breakout but too formed a false break, on strong employment data.  Really is looking more and more like a risk-off ask coming down on top of those bids to me.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> some huge orders coming in around 1086.00, then it tanked hard, do these big orders mean anything?




It means there is big buyers 

glhf


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*

mmm short at 1090... good for about 70 points surely


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/charts/charts_debt.htm
> 
> Just wait for that green line to touch the orange line and it should make the news. Not hard to guess the market's reaction to that..




Well well well

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWXDnpFProiY&pos=6


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



white_goodman said:


> mmm short at 1090... good for about 70 points surely




wait for 5mins after trade balance


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> wait for 5mins after trade balance




ha, have a feeling consumer sentiment number may have an impact tonight...

might aswell make a ballsy call and short gold now aswell...

BOC


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



white_goodman said:


> ha, have a feeling consumer sentiment number may have an impact tonight...
> 
> might aswell make a ballsy call and short gold now aswell...
> 
> BOC




hmmm. I was just thinking about that... I dunno, im still quite bearish on the USD and its pretty much inversely correlated with gold. long GC and short ES could be good.


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*

long term im bullish gold and bearish USD aswell, still doesnt mean you can take some profit the other way...

this is what I'm seeing as we speak... dont know how valid the levels are, but its what im looking at..


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



white_goodman said:


> mmm short at 1090... good for about 70 points surely




.....if youve quantified price, ok,   take the call and don't marry yourself to any level.....gs and jp buying into the close yesterday.....


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

you might want to consider a stop sell below todays level as there is also a vacumme on the es where no volume transacted......the chopy pattern upwards so far today belies the hard work gone into lifting value.......credit suisse selling and local pitplayers are quick turnover of buy/sells.......sound like a topping process......i guess that may define closing a short versus opening a long pos....two completely diff ball games


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> .....if youve quantified price, ok, take the call and don't marry yourself to any level.....gs and jp buying into the close yesterday.....




oh i wasnt expecting 70 points, just a quicky for a few ticks, both payed off pretty nicely, and by paid off I mean earnt me sweet demo trading profits


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



white_goodman said:


> oh i wasnt expecting 70 points, just a quicky for a few ticks, both payed off pretty nicely, and by paid off I mean earnt me sweet demo trading profits



cheers

was interesting session ........lower volume and some pit traders left early (i guess friday thin vol is not too unusual) price failed to get real upside impulsivity so larger trades are going to be harder to achieve without lower the exposure and ignoring the minor chatter.......the comment from one pit was that the spx has 1096 as major signal for accum.....otherwise downside carries bigger prospects for a few days......the oz market futes liked the upside too.....the real lynch-pin appears to be the dx (usd) and if that can gain traction then all upside bets appear in trub.......I'm looking for further upside.......


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Neutral now, would have liked to see this go quicker than it has.  It is pretty resilient, hard to get a move either way from this situation/area for me.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

http://www.finviz.com/map3darchive.ashx

here's a good way of getting diff pic on activity on  nyse.......of course you still need to give perspective and context, but, it's a good way to gauge session over session of strengths.......depending on your bias


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

NYSE volume 465M shares, about 5% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 5.2:1.- NASDAQ volume 885M shares, about 11% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.5:1.

so far ..


----------



## Tradesurfer

*Re: S&P 500*

looked for a while like an emerging head and shoulders reversal. But it isn't one until the neckline is broker which didn't happen. Price continues to make high highs and higher lows. The trend is the trend.......


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

important day up, imo...goldman doing some large buys into the close...volume finally picked up albeit still thin..but breadth good.....rut made extensive percent move over majors.......bkx/xlf up strong too......


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> goldman doing some large buys into the close...




please elaborate


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> please elaborate




long contracts........400 was the largest parcel.....lotsa paper buying from institutions.......


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

if there's a real bullet for the bull phase then it must be (dx)us$ ........but it remains unable to eject itself from the slump......once it does, watch out below of the indecies.......atm each news spike on the us$ is quickly and appropriately covered.......well, if youre on the long side of equities


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> long contracts........400 was the largest parcel.....lotsa paper buying from institutions.......




So where did Goldman come from? Is it a case of, if there is big buying it must be Goldman Sachs?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

no, the feed is directly from pit ! I got to hear who's buying........


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> no, the feed is directly from pit ! I got to hear who's buying........




What feed?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

upside and current res......this monthly view looks bullish thus far if you take out the current hoohar about thin volume and replace with strong breadth ...........the rut made all the ground and fins strong.......the us$ remains weak and def the roger ramjet if it goes off into stellar mode


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> What feed?




i think its possible to get a direct squwak to the pit, I remember seeing it in a John Carter vid


----------



## Largesse

*Re: S&P 500*

i love a good squwak


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



white_goodman said:


> i think its possible to get a direct squwak to the pit, I remember seeing it in a John Carter vid




Yeah, think it's through TTN (Propex has it if your there in S&P hours), the guy is so damn funny, but I've never found much help from it........

(It's only to S&P pit though, think diff feeds to diff pits).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone with thoughts on the S&P performance (pretty much on its highs) of the last few days as the USD has appreciated?


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Warning - Ramblings to follow,
Seems to me some relationships are breaking down.
US bonds (ZB) have been going up for 5 days but so has the ES.
USD went up in the last 36 hours but so did the ES.
Oil and the ES are roughly lining up though. Oil climbing. MrC happy..

The ES is in a trendline up since around the 3rd of Nov.
Any item of bad US news is being treated as a buying opportunity 5 minutes after the news.
Im looking closely for 'top volume' in US stocks and etfs but nothing definite yet. Drys took a dive last night but not sure why. Maybe or maybe not an early indicator.

BHP and RIO out of control, due to oil and commodities. AUS banks have had a bad run the last few weeks but yesterday I thought they may have hit 'bottom volume' and may climb. Hence the spi feeling bullish today.

K200, stw, hsi being supported by dip volumes.

Finally Japan has been in the pits for a long time, and it seems to me like the dips have been bought on japanese charts for ages but no real response. I think its been accumulating for ages and may pop. Way overdue.

So I think the ES is still going up gradually along its trendline, but the rising bonds and usd are a worry.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Seems to me some relationships are breaking down.




Timmy, think this is the main thing that explains it.  Due to the time of the year and the fact, particularly, that around this time, many funds close out their books, no specific date, but many do so going into late November.  So you don't get as much paper in the market, and subsequently, many locals do less churn volume as there isn't much happening to try go for.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Seems to me some relationships are breaking down.




Thanks Broadway and MRC&Co.  

Bugger ... was simple while it lasted .


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

I think the markets are pissed off at that Japanese bank trying to raise 11b because of its stuff ups. Nikkei down 250+ and its dragging alot down with it.
ES down 10 so far and volume isnt stopping it yet.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> I think the markets are pissed off at that Japanese bank trying to raise 11b because of its stuff ups. Nikkei down 250+ and its dragging alot down with it.
> ES down 10 so far and volume isnt stopping it yet.




Another leg down, back under 1100 again now.


----------



## Largesse

*Re: S&P 500*

its where the cash closes that is important.


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



Largesse said:


> its where the cash closes that is important.




????


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

The Bank of Israel raised rates by 0.25% yesterday.  Not necessarily indicative of other central banks' imminently raising rates (I would think), but important for what the considerations were in raising rates ... and therefore maybe what other central banks will be considering.

_The main considerations_ behind the decision are in yesterday's Bank of Israel press release (down the bottom).


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: S&P 500*

I heard that there's some german bank going bankrupt which spooked the mkts - thus the selloff on the eminis


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



skyQuake said:


> I heard that there's some german bank going bankrupt which spooked the mkts - thus the selloff on the eminis




Was it related to this dubai default disaster news that's killing the markets tonight?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

It seems that by all normal measures of sentiment and breadth the S&P500 is just getting further and further out on a limb the higher it goes (though pretty rangebound near the highs at present), driven entirely by the liquidity argument ...  

What can stop it?  Serious question.  The Dubai news took it off about 4% (& now back up again) ... what else is around that can have a similar effect, if not more?

I am wondering about the confirmation of Bernanke.  It appears to be a done deal.  Is it?  Lots of talk about senators delaying the confirmation, and maybe even voting it down.  Voting it down seems very unlikely to me ... is it?

He needs to be confirmed by Jan. 31 next year:
_Mr. Bernanke's four-year term as Fed chairman ends on Jan. 31, 2010. If he were not reconfirmed by then, he could continue to serve in an acting role until he was confirmed or someone else was confirmed to succeed him._
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/business/03fed.html

On the other hand, if there is persistent talk of delay and potential for non-confirmation, & then if the confirmation proceeds does that provide a catalyst for the next good move up?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

NFP ... wow.  Thought it was a misprint


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> NFP ... wow.  Thought it was a misprint




Need employees for the Christmas period?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Wysiwyg said:


> Need employees for the Christmas period?




Consensus was around -119K
Actual announced at -11K

So actual was 1 tenth of consensus forecast ... that is a stunning difference

Christmas demand for extra employees would have been factored into the consensus forecasts ... 

I still reckon a typo the most likely explanation  (not really)


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone else think "UoM Consumer Sentiment" was leaked on friday?


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Anyone else think "UoM Consumer Sentiment" was leaked on friday?




There was a 1-2 pt rise just before the news, at 1.54am syd. Im not sure if this is one of those data releases that give the number just minutes before to people who pay a subscription. Or it could have been a coincidence.

I noticed the EUR GBP AUD rose with the ES on the dubai news, but the usd didn't fall that much. Seems like the USD ES correlation goes in and out of fashion depending on the news. I hope the correlation holds, some of the currency moves can lead the ES (esp the pound).


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> I noticed the EUR GBP AUD rose with the ES on the dubai news, but the usd didn't fall that much. Seems like the USD ES correlation goes in and out of fashion depending on the news. I hope the correlation holds, some of the currency moves can lead the ES (esp the pound).




Yeh, it still looks very shotty to me, wouldn't say it has broken down yet at all by that behaviour.  Looking at the daily it looks like it, but a lot of intraday moves are still very correlated.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Useful FOMC statement cheat sheet, for those interested.

http://alephblog.com/2009/12/17/red..._campaign=Feed:+TheAlephBlog+(The+Aleph+Blog)


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Useful FOMC statement cheat sheet, for those interested.
> 
> http://alephblog.com/2009/12/17/red..._campaign=Feed:+TheAlephBlog+(The+Aleph+Blog)




Interesting how the fomc minutes release was the catalyst that moved the ES from 1110 down to 1090. Top of the range all the way to the bottom.

Be she found volume and bounced right back to the top again. ES now around 1113, at the top of range again.

Anyone short in the ES?
Anyone long in the ES?

Thought I saw some top volume last night, but not confident about it.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Neutral now, would have liked to see this go quicker than it has.  It is pretty resilient, hard to get a move either way from this situation/area for me.




Here was my view Broadway back on the 16th of November I think.

Also heard that non-farms saw a lot of long covering (hence the sell-off after nearly positive figures), but not much short position creation, and so my earlier thought of sideways chop was re-confirmed.  After that left equities on the backburner.  Much more profits in the commodities and currencies.


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*

.
This move was predicted on the blog. (SP500, Gold, Silver, Oil charts and thoughts are all freely available on the blog).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Overly simplistic thought, but do the S&P futures continue to cop a pasting until senators have achieved enlightenment (i.e. have fear force it upon them, a la the bailout) and confirm Bernanke?  

Or is my tinfoil hat too tight?  

ps. FOMC statement due Wednesday.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Overly simplistic thought, but do the S&P futures continue to cop a pasting until senators have achieved enlightenment (i.e. have fear force it upon them, a la the bailout) and confirm Bernanke?
> 
> Or is my tinfoil hat too tight?
> 
> ps. FOMC statement due Wednesday.




Hey timmy,
Im not sure the ES traders care too much, this slide was baked in from early january, it was going to happen no matter what news there was. US bonds began rising from bad jobs data on 9th january. The question is, have we hit bottom yet? Maybe the fomc will be a turning point to head back up. My opinion is that there is enough volume in the market to turn up, its just a matter of when. Oil and copper up last night, but you can feel the nervousness of bullish investors.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Thanks Broadway - sorry, I didn't see your reply until today.



Broadway said:


> Maybe the fomc will be a turning point to head back up.




Spot on with this so far.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Hey Tim,
What I saw was some huge volumes in ESTX50 and CAC40 over the last 72 hours leading up to the fomc, so I figured they were loading up for it.

Then yesterday there were 100 lot trades on multiple dips in the spi, saw at least 5 of these. With some good volume in BHP/RIO.

And finally saw good volume on the spx and sycom just after midnight last night.

Now the question is, how far up do we go?
Im not sure at the moment, I think im seeing some exiting in the ES already. But not sure. The spi rally into the close is promising for more up.


----------



## tradingtiger

*Re: S&P 500*

What does the EMINI Futures (ES) use to find direction during the after hours session (when the S&P Cash market is closed.

It seems to follow the Aussie market- but why?


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



tradingtiger said:


> What does the EMINI Futures (ES) use to find direction during the after hours session (when the S&P Cash market is closed.
> 
> It seems to follow the Aussie market- but why?




Heres how I see things, but happy to be corrected/learn new things.

Japan mostly influences asia, but when it's closed for lunch, the HSI/kospi/stwsgx can do some leading.

The ES runs 23hrs and during asia will most closely follow japan. During europe time, ES parallels ftse/dax.

But if there is news involving the USA during asia time then most of the futures will follow a move by the ES.(eg dubai bailout news)

At times the ES can run parallel to the spi, but this is very unreliable and unpredictable.

The spi during asia time can very easily do its own thing totally ignoring all asian/ES influences.

The afterhours spi(sycom) will then closely follow the ES from 1710 to 0800 aest.
One exception to this is if copper and oil go in a different direction to the ES, then the sycom will follow the ES less closely.

So to answer your first question, imo the nikkei. And then the spi can also follow the nikkei, at times.

But the ultimate question is how do you predict the ES/NK trends?
Volume and price moves in bonds, currencies and oil is what I'm studying lately.
But it depends what correlates to the ES.


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> But the ultimate question is how do you predict the ES/NK trends?
> Volume and price moves in bonds, currencies and oil is what I'm studying lately.
> But it depends what correlates to the ES.




..well the JGBs followed USDJPY which in turn follows the Nikkei 

And so the wheel spins and those trying to work it out go mad:screwy:


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

They all mix and mesh.  Sometimes one leads, other times it's the other.  

Have to watch them all IMO and try get a feel for what is leading what and have to know how they all fit into the equation, where they are in the big picture and where they currently are sitting.  

IMO though, SPI and oil are the best leads.  Oil traders seem to really be in the know and extremelly cagey, and those same instos that move the ES/Nikkei/HSI, get their SPI possies done first.  If someone is going to sell thousands of S&P, the SPI will follow, but if they are trying to sell thousands of SPI, most won't try move the S&P and they can therefore do that afterwards with the same fills.  Just my conspiracy theory (and I'm full of them ).

I don't watch enough of Europe to comment, but from those who do, they say DAX is the most important.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> They all mix and mesh.  Sometimes one leads, other times it's the other.
> 
> Have to watch them all IMO and try get a feel for what is leading what and have to know how they all fit into the equation, where they are in the big picture and where they currently are sitting.
> 
> IMO though, SPI and oil are the best leads.  Oil traders seem to really be in the know and extremelly cagey, and those same instos that move the ES/Nikkei/HSI, get their SPI possies done first.  If someone is going to sell thousands of S&P, the SPI will follow, but if they are trying to sell thousands of SPI, most won't try move the S&P and they can therefore do that afterwards with the same fills.  Just my conspiracy theory (and I'm full of them ).
> 
> I don't watch enough of Europe to comment, but from those who do, they say DAX is the most important.




Hey Mr C.
I got to admit oil volume has been a beacon lately. Saw alot of volume in copper and oil on saturday morning, figured we might be close to a bottom.

Ive been looking at the correlation between the USD,gold and the ES lately as well. Gold and the ES are a little cosy, and gold volume is dropping some hints for ES trades, which seems weird to me, but if it holds, i'm game.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> They all mix and mesh.  Sometimes one leads, other times it's the other.
> 
> Have to watch them all IMO and try get a feel for what is leading what and have to know how they all fit into the equation, where they are in the big picture and where they currently are sitting.
> 
> IMO though, SPI and oil are the best leads.  Oil traders seem to really be in the know and extremelly cagey, and those same instos that move the ES/Nikkei/HSI, get their SPI possies done first.  If someone is going to sell thousands of S&P, the SPI will follow, but if they are trying to sell thousands of SPI, most won't try move the S&P and they can therefore do that afterwards with the same fills.  Just my conspiracy theory (and I'm full of them ).




Nice post.


----------



## tradingtiger

*Re: S&P 500*



Trembling Hand said:


> Nice post.




This eveving at 6.00pm and then 7.25 pm (all SFE time) the  DAX led the way
min by min. The emini followed exactly. 

For those familiar with candlesticks- see the three dead crows on a 15 min.

Maybe Greece (not the movie) is filing for bankrupcy??


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



tradingtiger said:


> This eveving at 6.00pm and then 7.25 pm (all SFE time) the  DAX led the way
> min by min. The emini followed exactly.
> 
> For those familiar with candlesticks- see the three dead crows on a 15 min.
> 
> Maybe Greece (not the movie) is filing for bankrupcy??




The problem is that the dax may be leading the ES and everything else in europe time, but its not an advantage you can trade. Its too quick. You still have to use something else to give you an entry.


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*

Heheheheh.

YES i,m tooting my horn.


Gone fishing.......... have a great weekend .


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Notable low volume in the ES during RTH.  Just normal variation or some reason?


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*

The potential for an Evening Star pattern to form did not complete as you can see in the diagram below. It always pays to wait for the completion of any candle pattern before considering a position. As you see once the candle closed it gave a completely different (bullish) picture with also an Ichimoku buy signal appearing – all 3 elements confirming (yellow spots).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

FOMC statement due today (Tuesday).

Just as an aside, apparently today is the 1-year anniversary of Ben Bernanke's calling of "Green Shoots".  Not a bad move in the S&P since then.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> FOMC statement due today (Tuesday).
> 
> Just as an aside, apparently today is the 1-year anniversary of Ben Bernanke's calling of "Green Shoots".  Not a bad move in the S&P since then.




Not to mention Obamas mention of "now is a good time to invest".


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

I'm out of the loop at the mom, but as was the case mid rally when we got to the highs, there is a distinct lack of interest to sell and defend the levels, and as was the case again mid rally, we just drift through the highs.

I did catch a news headline though the other day, talking about regulation on the US banking sector, specifically on their lending.  With low rates and a lot of grief still on their books perhaps hidden by 'dodgy new account standards', they will be keen to lend out at least 'less worse debt' to dillute this effect on their books.  Any regulation could really stiffle this, and catch a whole lot of consumers/corps out by slowing down the credit cycle once more.

Haven't done ANY research on this or talked to anybody about it, but was just a thought after seeing the news headline.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Fedex reports Q3 2010 earnings at 2.30pm NY time today (18 MAR).
Fedex results a bit of a bellwether and will be closely watched.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> FOMC statement due today (Tuesday).
> 
> Just as an aside, apparently today is the 1-year anniversary of Ben Bernanke's calling of "Green Shoots".  Not a bad move in the S&P since then.




I thought last week was interesting and the fomc was actually quite important.
Initially the markets took the fomc as good news, but the pros actually shorted into it especially with metals, oil and currencies(eur,gbp,chf etc).
Then they sat back and waited 24-48 hours, and eventually the euro resumed its slide south after touching 1.38, and then everything popped south on friday night.
But I think it was just a short term swing trade they made, not like January.
I felt there was a significant amount of volume at the end of that slide in commodities and currencies, and it may be more of the same grumbling northward next week.
In terms of correlations, the major industrial metals and oil seem to be most closely correlated to the ES lately. Check out the right hand charts of metals on this site and compare that to a 1 month ES chart, pretty close.

http://www.basemetals.com/popularcharts.aspx


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Broadway, I think it as the EZ news on the Greece bailouts that led this down move in European currencies (including GBP/USD).

Which seemed to act as a drag on the rest of the world......


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Ohhhh ... there's a little grey swan for us.


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Ohhhh ... there's a little grey swan for us.




Yep, jobs data still a bit wobbly lookin... and looks nicely on cue to make my XAO Analysis 'prediction' good.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

I haven't posted a chart for a while, so i thought this would be an interesting one to come back with. 

Many were expecting a pullback sooner or later, my question to those willing to give some thoughts, is this a pull back that has started, or something more sinister? 

My thoughts are this may be a short pull back and i'll look for shorting opps sometime next week. The trend line at 1143 needs to hold to avoid a trip to 1114 i reckon. 

I think the next bar will be interesting to see if buyers step up to the plate.

Nice divergence.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



CanOz said:


> I haven't posted a chart for a while, so i thought this would be an interesting one to come back with.
> 
> Many were expecting a pullback sooner or later, my question to those willing to give some thoughts, is this a pull back that has started, or something more sinister?
> 
> My thoughts are this may be a short pull back and i'll look for shorting opps sometime next week. The trend line at 1143 needs to hold to avoid a trip to 1114 i reckon.
> 
> I think the next bar will be interesting to see if buyers step up to the plate.
> 
> Nice divergence.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Imo its a short term pullback which you should be looking for longs next week when the other big volume shows up.
But if your looking for shorts then if that trendline from early february gets broken on the ES, then that might be a good short.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Imo its a short term pullback which you should be looking for longs next week when the other big volume shows up.
> But if your looking for shorts then if that trendline from early february gets broken on the ES, then that might be a good short.




Totally agree, after looking at hundreds of charts this weekend.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*

The $64,000 question is what does this change?

Nuttin'!

Markets are still rigged, trade to that hypothesis.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> The $64,000 question is what does this change?
> 
> Nuttin'!
> 
> Markets are still rigged, trade to that hypothesis.




Hey Wayne, howya doing mate? I wastempted to look ya up when i was last in the UK, got lost in Stamford though. How long have you been hanging your hat in NZ?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P 500*





This is a weekly SPX chart.
As you can see after testing the 1200 resistance (July 2008 low) it pulled back little bit
creating a shooting star. If it will not close below the low next Friday, there is a posibility that
it will visit the 1250 level (high volume) before pulling back, IMO


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



CanOz said:


> Hey Wayne, howya doing mate? I wastempted to look ya up when i was last in the UK, got lost in Stamford though. How long have you been hanging your hat in NZ?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




About 5 months CanOz. Enjoying it. Taking the p!ss out of Kiwis is fun.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

I can imagine, with that endearing accent n all!

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## georgey

*Re: S&P 500*

Re markets rigged - why does the Goldman news come out when markets
are at a high and just before a big results week?
Has 'someone' shorted before the news and bought back before Friday's
close knowing that results are going to be good?
Or do 'they' know results are not good and have therefore positioned
well (short) for next week?
Anyone here betting on either scenario on the premise that just because
you're a touch paranoid doesn't mean you're not right?
G


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P 500*



georgey said:


> Re markets rigged - why does the Goldman news come out when markets
> are at a high and just before a big results week?
> Has 'someone' shorted before the news and bought back before Friday's
> close knowing that results are going to be good?
> Or do 'they' know results are not good and have therefore positioned
> well (short) for next week?
> Anyone here betting on either scenario on the premise that just because
> you're a touch paranoid doesn't mean you're not right?
> G




I bet Goldman themselves shorted their own stock and all the markets they can lay their hands on. They knew the news before hand. They can't be nicknamed Government Sachs for nothing. So the SEC decided to grill the Vampire Squid. Another Wall Street circus perhaps. So let the show begins.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



baby_swallow said:


> I bet Goldman themselves shorted their own stock and all the markets they can lay their hands on.




This is the real $64,000 question... is that a bad thing if they did short the market?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Personally, I believe this is it!  Top is in at least for the nxt few months or >.

Every single thing is lining up on this one!  Funny that it comes at a time when all the 'data' is extremelly positive!  ;-)  Even the forward looking indicators..........

Markets always price way ahead of time!


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> This is the real $64,000 question... is that a bad thing if they did short the market?




Well a bunch of tin hat hippies are basically suing em for it now (in a lawsuit separate to the SEC one).

MRC, I agree, but the extreme strength in the market that came so soon after the SEC announcement about Goldman does make me a bit weary. Side ways for a week and I'm all in.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Well a bunch of tin hat hippies are basically suing em for it now (in a lawsuit separate to the SEC one).
> 
> MRC, I agree, but the extreme strength in the market that came so soon after the SEC announcement about Goldman does make me a bit weary. Side ways for a week and I'm all in.




There was also a ton of volume after the spanish downgrade last night.
I think the ES is about the health of US companies rather than the US economy or world economies.
US companies are improving their revenues.
We may get a correction but Im not so sure if it will be very deep.


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P 500*

we are now in consolidation phase of the up move from February low. Its now a  battle between bulls & bears (so I'm wearing two hats, LOL). I would like to see a series of lower lows before I discard my bull hat.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*



baby_swallow said:


> I would like to see a series of lower lows before I discard my bull hat.




Then what? it will be too late to get in by then.


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Then what? it will be too late to get in by then.




Thankyou mr shorts.

all these charting /trading cliches sound great in books and forums but usually mean squat in the real trading world.


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Then what? it will be too late to get in by then.




The type of hat is only an indication of the direction of the trend. As a very short term trader, most of my trades are counter trend.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> There was also a ton of volume after the spanish downgrade last night.
> I think the ES is about the health of US companies rather than the US economy or world economies.
> US companies are improving their revenues.
> We may get a correction but Im not so sure if it will be very deep.




Yep, that's my worry at the moment (though as I stated in another thread, positive earnings results and causing less and less of a bid).  Oh and add that small caps were outperforming large caps in the S&P500 over the last wk, this trend was reversed last night.  Another bearish divergence.

Though technicals are being outweighed by events/news at the moment which is altering all the flows.......


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.




Does that mean I can be a bear again?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



wayneL said:


> Does that mean I can be a bear again?




Only if you can see the forest through the trees, plenty of salmon (see lemmings) to feast upon!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Got short going long on some of the new reverse ETFs last night.

My first try at reverse ETFs, thanks to Leavitt!

Watch the market bounce now.....

CanOz


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*

MRC & Co,

Your indicators, give them to me


----------



## drsmith

*Re: S&P 500*

I like this forecast from CNN Money;



> U.S. stocks were poised for a lower open Wednesday as fears of debt contagion in Europe continued to weigh on investors, although the losses were expected to be less severe than the previous session.



Hmmmmm.......


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> MRC & Co,
> 
> Your indicators, give them to me




My magic indicators have been on the ball lately, lot's of meat in the turns.

Who said don't pick tops/bottoms?  

Must have been those "TA textbooks".....


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P 500*

No surprise here. US markets is just catching up with the Europeans.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> MRC & Co,
> 
> Your indicators, give them to me




Hear, hear!  Outstanding work MRC&Co - its all in the timing!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

ha ha, since your all being so nice, I will give you my magic indicators.

This bit was already posted in the 'international index trading' thread except for the bold part:

_That's what I got (the last of the 3 big down moves in the range at the top would result in one more push higher which would only be a lower high).  

Huge spike in CDS spreads, even the bund has moved higher than the UST.

Last time we got a spike like this in spreads, it frontran the subsequent piling into 'safe havens'.

Financial ETFs are down, financials have been strongly correlated with the 'risk trade'.

Many 'risk trades' are now over-crowded, huge net speculative long positions and vice-versa in 'safe haven trades'.

Monetary restriction and targeted fiscal expansion in China is now taking place, great for longer-term real growth, bad for short-term financial markets IMO.

Gold even rallied last night, as opposed to Friday when it also came off.  *Interestingly, gold was correlating with equities on the first of those big risk off nights.  Inflation is low and economic uncertainty was low after stimulus and liquidity pump, yet gold held it's worth, it must be a play on currencies.  Notice on one of those big down nights in that final top range, gold decoupled and actually rallied when 'risk' came off? * 

Even got financial regulation moving closer and closer to the forefront which will effectively lower financials prices and the expansion of credit. Many CBs looking at moping up liquidity to that end also.

Above market earnings reports are prooving less and less of a bid for equities (factoring in of top-line growth may already be over). _

You also had the shift from small caps outperforming large caps for a period, to vice-versa.  

On shorter-term timing, I was talking to TH about how whilst prices were at highs, there were fewer and fewer stocks making 52wk highs and more actually making 52 wk lows.  This was while the advance/decline line was also in overbought territory.  Perfect scenario for a pullback as far as market breadth.

As far as VSA, all the way up the rally, you would get price moving to highs, and flirting with it, before going through.  I.e. there was no supply up there yet demand was enough to keep price sticking on highs when it got there and moving through even if on low volume. 

Yet, the highest point of this rally was on basically no volume, and failed to push higher.  You also saw the last of the 3 big down nights on the lowest volume of all 3 of them.  Demand was running dry.  The moves higher on low volume which also failed to push and hold near that candle which set the high on low volume were a bearish sign.  

I.e. the entire rally saw little supply, yet demand present.  This time saw little supply, but no demand present.  

Obviously, there was a huge stockpile of longs, and once price fell below the level of those 3 big volume down candles, you would be nearly guaranteed to have a few panicking for the exits. 

Magic magic.  Not.  Underlying fundamentals and reading of psychology (strong earnings results producing fewer and fewer bids), combined with market internals, combined with simple VSA was enough in this case.  Hope this helps.

My long gold/short financials in the gold thread is explained by this same post.  The short AUD/USD had a few more elements which were explained in the AUD thread but which aligns with the 'risk off' scenario explained here.  Short Euro was also an easy one, but that is an entirely different and long winded global macro explanation.  Then there was an easy short USD/JPY at 95 but once again, long winded and different explanation.


----------



## Naked shorts

*Re: S&P 500*

Interesting read MRC.

Alchemy of finance much?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Naked shorts said:


> Interesting read MRC.
> 
> Alchemy of finance much?




A little bit of this and a little bit of that.  Just things I've come accross which seem logical to me and work (the fundamental reseach is not done by me though, I just pick the bits I like).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, since your all being so nice, I will give you my magic indicators...




Again, MRC - great work.  
And big thanks for generously sharing.


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*

long here?...........anyone?


----------



## nunthewiser

*Re: S&P 500*

Lol..... if anyone wants the "idiots guide to immediate stopouts" please contact me


----------



## cutz

*Re: S&P 500*



nunthewiser said:


> long here?...........anyone?




Yes and no,

How about you nun ?


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



nunthewiser said:


> long here?...........anyone?




Not at midnight, but this morning yes.
Some volume eod in us stocks and etfs.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



nunthewiser said:


> Lol..... if anyone wants the "idiots guide to immediate stopouts" please contact me




Thanks Nun - my copy is getting a bit worn out


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Not at midnight, but this morning yes.
> Some volume eod in us stocks and etfs.




Tks Broadway - approaching the 'Flash Crash' lows here too.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Tks Broadway - approaching the 'Flash Crash' lows here too.




Hey Tim.
Heres a fast way to check out u.s. etfs and stocks, with volumes.

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/...,MCD,MMM,MRK,MSFT,PFE,PG,T,TRV,UTX,VZ,WMT,XOM

See the volumes of this slide with last weeks slide.

Im not saying its the bottom, just saying we consolidate here with maybe a small bounce, which spi is already seeing.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

I wouldn't be surprised to see US start playing a bit of short-term catchup to Asia now!  Good for a spread..........


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Hey Tim.
> Heres a fast way to check out u.s. etfs and stocks, with volumes.




Thanks for these Broadway - pretty easy way of doing it, great!



Broadway said:


> Im not saying its the bottom, just saying we consolidate here with maybe a small bounce, which spi is already seeing.






MRC & Co said:


> I wouldn't be surprised to see US start playing a bit of short-term catchup to Asia now!  Good for a spread..........




Zactly - getting some of this & then see how Friday shapes up in Europe and the States ....


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Fun night.
Good volume at the end of it.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Fun night.
> Good volume at the end of it.




Could be a little swing up here. Hoping anyway. Might take a few days.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2...be-after-forint-falls-on-default-concern.html


----------



## white_goodman

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Could be a little swing up here. Hoping anyway. Might take a few days.
> 
> http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2...be-after-forint-falls-on-default-concern.html




average to the long side boom


----------



## healthandwealth

*Re: S&P 500*

Hi all - this is my first post- am enjoying reading the thread...
so what will the S&P do tonight? is it ready for next decline or how high will it go?


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



healthandwealth said:


> Hi all - this is my first post- am enjoying reading the thread...
> so what will the S&P do tonight? is it ready for next decline or how high will it go?




Hey H+W, 
Yea that swing up worked well, she rose 60.
Im not getting definite big signals, but I think she may have run out of steam here, maybe some downside in the next 24-48h. 
Epcr .55, maybe some complacency in calls.
We'll see I guess, but i'm always looking for reversals too early.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

liq coming out of spx is going into bonds and gold...inverse action.....should be getting to the 'obvious' tipping point.......of course, after 6/6 flash most people are confused....twiggs money flow might be the only divergence because traditional 'value' levels are reached but a lot of wealth protection is going into bonds and fear of deflation and weak fiats is driving gold....i'm keen on seeing the globex 1035(.75) low taken out on a daily basis by the cash to confirm that we're more than a (us)summer slump

coffee....


----------



## explod

*Re: S&P 500*

As things are looking a bit fragile on the markets just thought I would pop in.  Was reading Dan Norcini's take on gold and thought the following paragraph may be of interest. 



> The price action in the S&P 500 calls for some comments – the market is flirting dangerously with the 1040-1036 level. If it CLOSES BELOW that level and stays down there for another trading session, the bottom is going to drop out of the equity markets in a real hurry as things will turn quite ugly. The equity bull crowd had better hope that they can muster enough recruits to their cause or they are in serious trouble




full report at JSMinset:     http://jsmineset.com/


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-theory-sell-signal-at-thursdays-close-2010-06-30?link=kiosk

lotsa reasons to confirm a longer time frame sell on the us markets....bonds continue to get bubbly and attract more liquidity...gold spikes down from headless chook traders but merely becomes better value for the long range game.......


----------



## The_Snowman

*Re: S&P 500*

Just going to throw a few charts up here,see if they work OK


----------



## The_Snowman

*Re: S&P 500*

How that turned out in very short time.....


----------



## The_Snowman

*Re: S&P 500*

Anyone trading the S&P daily should have a listen to this analysis

*THE CHART PATTERN TRADER*


----------



## The_Snowman

*Re: S&P 500*

Little trade I caught pre-open & 8:30 June payroll, could be an interesting day


----------



## The_Snowman

*Re: S&P 500*

Apart from the DP - Decision Point - project from the February 2010 low, hitting the 38% retracement and some good news next week, which may provide a temporary rally up to the 1130 region, there is plenty of scope for downside - your thoughts, comments, analysis, etc?


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P 500*



The_Snowman said:


> your thoughts, comments, analysis




The rally was manufactured and the sky is falling again. Stock up on baked beans and ammo.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

lows retaken on globex 1006 and a nice hook for supply saw futes spike down as stops hit and then, whoopie cushion, a squeez to retest the roof at 1040 cash....1002.75 mini is the low to hold.....twm supports the ultras although the spxu is looking weak but more importantly, i think, the transports hold the key, lack of belief that (as some have said) that yesterday was a key reversal day.....always scares me when people are quick to call reversal days......market tells.com shows more stocks trading new  20 day lows than above, very weak tick into the lift, CME group says half the members not on the floor in chicago so likely we havent really seen the real strength.....twiggs money flows all support selling which in turn is still supported by liquidity flowing into bonds....i dont think just looking at the euro and saying that is reason to see higher prices in us equities.....doesnt look to me like the asian markets are buying up on the us moves.......a minute by minute game....i still favour s/s the spx as a bias


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

I've got a bias to the short side, and not just because of the technicals. Pretty much explains the way it is.

Cheers,



Steve


----------



## explod

*Re: S&P 500*

Interesting to see a lot of bears appearing among ASF'ers.   Was just musing on the Dow, I like looking at the longer term now and then.  Noticed that during 2007 on the monthly a lot of volatility occurred leading up to the GFC, since the start of this year it looks to me like a similar pattern of volatility.

Interesting ?


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: S&P 500*

Most people seem to be quite bearish the S&P 500 at the moment. One of the biggest dangers in trading and analysing is not keeping an open mind. One count (shown) is very bullish, suggesting the complete wave A, B and C pattern. Notice the termination of the C wave just past the .618 area of the wave A. The key is the next week or so. If we can count a complete smaller five waves higher on the hourly chart, it is looking good that the market can continue higher. I would suggest we are in the smaller wave iii now on the hourly. If we get consolidation for a few days then on upward again, I will view this very positively.

The only question mark is the time taken to complete the much larger B on the weekly. It does not quite seem as though it has chewed up enough time yet. Time will tell.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

My short (long on the inverse ETF) got triggered on Thursday night on the hammer. 

Nice surprise when i checked this morning. Quite a night for the bears.

My trading has been quite quiet lately, hasn't been good swing fodder so its good to finally get into a decent move. 

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Got stopped out on this trade at B/E. Got long several US stocks right after, even had a stop and reverse on HAL for a day or two.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*

All gone quite.........

Possibility perhaps


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*

.

First leg along suggested Purple Trace gave maximum 19 points


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

Tonight is the night me thinks, down she goes..........!


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Tonight is the night me thinks, down she goes..........!




Care to elaborate?

The chart definitely look bearish, but why tonight?


----------



## the guru

*Re: S&P 500*

charts have no indication as to how the s@p moves


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*



the guru said:


> charts have no indication as to how the s@p moves




Is that right 

29.5 points overnight following the chart plus 18 points from 2 days ago - all from my chart posted 3 days ago


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: S&P 500*



skc said:


> Care to elaborate?
> 
> The chart definitely look bearish, but why tonight?






the guru said:


> charts have no indication as to how the s@p moves




Charts precede news and movement, they show where the smart money is moving ahead of the funds and retail investors.

When the markets fall, the press, funds and fundamentalists invent a reason, usually one or two days after the event as in this story from the UK Telegraph.

It is having more sellers than buyers that sends markets down.

Ignore charts at your peril. I am fully cashed for the coming bloodbath.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7954285/Wall-Street-tumbles-spooked-by-shock-jobless-manufacturing-data.html

gg


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Charts precede news and movement, they show where the smart money is moving ahead of the funds and retail investors.




I call BS on that.  Charts have repeating patterns, support and resistance, can show a slosh of funds, but you gotta know the fundamental news also and how people are positioning into that plus the outcome, along with correlations to show where underlying psychological shifts are happening, without the entire picture and context, a chart is a chart and a small edge!  

Oh and 'smart money' what a load of bollocks, you have global macro funds competing with stat arb, competing with sovereign interest competing with.......a stack of others all the time!  Sometimes one is right, other times the other, there is no such thing as 'smart money'!  

BTW, nice fall last night!  Sorry skc, can't disclose reasons anymore.

All the best, back to my hiding place.


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Nice call MrC.
I saw some shorting volume in asia on sgxnk and n225m but wasnt convinced till I saw the toppy volumes in Europe. It wasnt a big stretch to predict the coming jobs claim and manufacturing index were going to be catalysts to a down move, no matter what the numbers were. But these are all hindsite comments.
Can I ask why you cant disclose reasons? Im guessing its a work related issue.
Anyway, nice call on direction and timing. Refreshing to see a real call instead of 'maybe up maybe down' comments.
Arco, any chance you could explain your charts? What do the shaded green and purple areas mean and how does your chart predict moves?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Nice call MrC.
> Anyway, nice call on direction and timing.




Agree.

MRC&Co - if you can't give reasons etc., I guess I will just have to learn to live with reliably being given the direction & timing only


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Nice call MrC.
> It wasnt a big stretch to predict the coming jobs claim and manufacturing index were going to be catalysts to a down move, no matter what the numbers were.
> 
> Can I ask why you cant disclose reasons? Im guessing its a work related issue.
> Anyway, nice call on direction and timing. Refreshing to see a real call instead of 'maybe up maybe down' comments




Yeh, that was part of the reason (though I doubt positive figures would have been sold, we just had very good breakdowns and estimates for the figures within our team) but quite a few other reasons contributed.  

Exactly, work related reasons, managing money with a fund, people pay for that, so can't go giving that out for free.   

Back to the markets.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Agree.
> 
> MRC&Co - if you can't give reasons etc., I guess I will just have to learn to live with reliably being given the direction & timing only




haha, I'll always try to help when I can my friend!


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P 500*

Looking for a long entry around these levels. Will wait and see what happens at the asian open first though. Outside of the minor breach in July, the 1040 level on the SPX has been a decent point for long entries all year. Obvious target would be for a test of the 1100 region if we do pop up from here


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*

It's a good level for sure technically Frink.  But I would be careful on this one, I think that level is about to be shattered tonight.......


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> It's a good level for sure technically Frink.  But I would be careful on this one, I think that level is about to be shattered tonight.......




Quite possibly, due to Bernanke opening his mouth tonight I'll enter on reduced size. Had family commitments for a week recently which meant that I couldn't get set for this recent leg down. Been quite annoyed at being flat for what's turned out to be a pretty decent run.

The obvious answer to missing a good trade is to go fishing for a bottom in an uncertain market


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*



arco said:


>





*Targets Reached*


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



professor_frink said:


> The obvious answer to missing a good trade is to go fishing for a bottom in an uncertain market




ha ha ha, ah yes, I know the feeling!

I think you may get an initial equity boost (oddly into what will likely be weak GDP numbers) and when Bernanke opens his mouth, but think after the initial potential spike, it will sell off.......

Just a wild guess, probably completely wrong on the equity front!


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



arco said:


> *Targets Reached*




Nice charts arco, how did you derive your target boxes?


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*

Fun night.. GDP better than expected, and the lod at midnight had alot of volume across all etfs and futures.
So squeeze or real?
I notice copper and oil up for 3 days running.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Just a wild guess, probably completely wrong on the equity front!




Yep, as per bonds thread, this is why I always go to the source and in this case, directly affected yield sensitive crosses!


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> So squeeze or real?




Thats a good question Broadway ... certainly some of the move looked like short-covering, but not all of it.  Though I wont be thinking of it too much until Monday now ... time for some weekend!



MRC & Co said:


> Yep, as per bonds thread, this is why I always go to the source and in this case, directly affected yield sensitive crosses!




Nailed the ZN, all in the timing, again.  Nicely done MRC&Co.


----------



## arco

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Nice charts arco, how did you derive your target boxes?




Hi Broadway

They are all derived using Ichimoku elementsfrom several time-frames. Once I have collated that information I construct the yellow zone as the potential target/reversal or entry area.

Rgds - arco


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Thats a good question Broadway ... certainly some of the move looked like short-covering, but not all of it.  Though I wont be thinking of it too much until Monday now ... time for some weekend!




ha ha, I was the same, all 'marketed out', rest over the wkend and I can't believe in several hours futures open again in Wellington for another crazy wk!  

That is the question Broadway, I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue on early into nxt wk, with mid-late wk a break down out of the range on S&P.....we will see.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> That is the question Broadway, I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue on early into nxt wk, with mid-late wk a break down out of the range on S&P.....we will see.




ha ha, well that was some crazy price action in equities.  Did the exact opposite of what I thought (though bonds behaving exactly as I thought, just no correlation breakdowns due to data slightly on the side of positive, though breakdowns are extremelly mixed but still not as bearish as leading indicators were pointing).  

Markets look like they are ready to try and muddle along in the near-term.  

Best trade out there I think is a long USDJPY on an 83 handle, still a lot of spec positioning to squeeze and exporters are hurting more than they are letting on.  May not require 'brutal' moves as the jawboning would lead you to believe.....


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Couple of articles, both from Jon Hilsenrath in the WSJ:
This about 4 hours old;
*Richmond Fed's Lacker Wants High Threshold For More Fed Action*
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010...-for-more-fed-action/?KEYWORDS=JON+HILSENRATH

This newer, (maybe a couple of hours ago?):
*Outlook Clouds Fed Move
Officials Disagree Over Threshold for Further Action to Boost Economy*
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...5491813115042140.html?KEYWORDS=JON+HILSENRATH

Still reading both of these articles, but looks like nothing fresh expected from the next FOMC (Sep. 21)


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

vid

a traders perspective.....

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/15/bullish-pattern-ascending-triangle/


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P 500*



MRC & Co said:


> Markets look like they are ready to try and muddle along in the near-term.
> 
> Best trade out there I think is a long USDJPY on an 83 handle, still a lot of spec positioning to squeeze and exporters are hurting more than they are letting on.  May not require 'brutal' moves as the jawboning would lead you to believe.....




Well equities are muddling along and USDJPY perfect, exporters were hurting bad!


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

nice smell of singed shorts, painfully slow, extremely low sell/buy ratio, strong adv over decliners, massive number of new highs versus new lows.....the aussie muddled the spx climbed.....all vagueries aside the numbers are clear and so is the price action....is there anyone in the short term interest rates shed that doesnt know what the fomc is going to do.......unlikely


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

.....with the smack-down in the 30 year note recently would not surprise me to see a flatline (failure to make new highs) in the tlt and 30 year  bond as some liquidity gets respilled into us equities.......that's even with the steamroller that is gold.....


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ny...t-year-advance-september-short-covering-rally

twas a nice updraft into the fomc annoc and an outside down move post, but, looks can be decieving and i'm sure if we got messrs Roubini, Prechter and Faber in one room to ramp the audience we could get the spx to reach above 1500 on that meet alone.....interestingly that means we have 3 major instruments in step over a very short period, which is unusual...ie gold/bonds/equties....pos liquidity flows all around....bonds have often been inverted....i'd also expect a slug-fest upwards on the xjo too.....looking for those weekly highs


----------



## sammy84

*Re: S&P 500*

That previous point of resistance at 1130 has turned out to be a nice point of support. Fridays price action was promising. From around 10 30am it was a nice trending day into the weekend. Unfortunately it was an inside day though so doesn't mean a hell of a lot either. 

 If 1157 breaks we could see another short squeeze. I'm pretty bullish still....anyone else of a different opinion?


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P 500*



sammy84 said:


> That previous point of resistance at 1130 has turned out to be a nice point of support. Fridays price action was promising. From around 10 30am it was a nice trending day into the weekend. Unfortunately it was an inside day though so doesn't mean a hell of a lot either.
> 
> If 1157 breaks we could see another short squeeze. I'm pretty bullish still....anyone else of a different opinion?




We could continue up, but breadth not seem to be joining in for the fun and put/call ratio showing the move up is largely unhedged (especially the last 7 odd trading days, but this might have something to do with the large opex in September) so this move up is exhibiting the behavior you see at broader market tops. 

If you follow the Summation Index (upper oscillator), stocks have been bullish since mid-July.

Caveat emptor.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Good size jump in the TED spread:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND


----------



## Broadway

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Good size jump in the TED spread:
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
> 
> View attachment 39140




Did this happen before last nights crappy jobs number? I guess they might have anticipated the ADP number.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



Broadway said:


> Did this happen before last nights crappy jobs number? I guess they might have anticipated the ADP number.




I cant be sure Broadway.  Pretty useless answer, sorry, but I only check that page no more than once a day (& not always even that) and didn't look at it until about 2 minutes prior to my post.  Bit late, I know.  

If anyone has a better source for the chart of the spread, that would be great.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> Good size jump in the TED spread:
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
> 
> View attachment 39140






yes, a handy bias ref........

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TED&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t96452030829&r=9566

low, liquidity in, high, liquidity shrinks......


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> yes, a handy bias ref........
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TED&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t96452030829&r=9566
> 
> low, liquidity in, high, liquidity shrinks......




Helps make sense when you view it like this:



My observations on the TED spread on Sept 29 2010:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4056524&postcount=594

Prior to the flash crash in May, most market participation indicators started to poop out. Breadth was not playing along, puts were not hedging the upmove (as measured by P/C ratio), and volume based indicators were not supportive of the upmove relatively early in the leg.

Highlighted some similarities above, but further thought on the chart has me thinking...well...further.

Especially on the FTSE (not so much the DAX), the most recent market upleg has been looking each day more and more like a corrective A-B-C wave rather than the beginnings of a new 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive wave. It's readily apparent on NDX and SPX too. Although, in the case of NDX, it has already moved into the equivalent resistance zone shown in the below chart for SPX...which indicates the financials are weaker than broader market (NDX being the non-fin index).

The implications of this wave formation are that a new down-trending impulse would be beginning very soon (if not already begun in some stocks).

Just like April/May, the MFI has already ceased being supportive of the current upleg and heading down as the index drifts up. This isn't a tradeable divergence signal, it's just another clue that something isn't quite right here.

Caveat emptor * 2:



See no reason to be equity long or short, happy flat. Made some nice % on various indices during Sept, will wait to see if the market tips its hand on the USDX or SPX during Oct for another clean setup somewhere on the board. My view is the cyclical USD bull is still in-tact, Bernanke is not bigger than the market, he can't beat it only break it - which is why equity flat is such a great position these days.

I am more interested in buying lumber.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

Joules, Sinner  - thank-you both very much.

Sinner - thanks also for the link to your comments on Forex Factory, great stuff.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P 500*

Last night was surely the most amusing in months on the markets.

SPY and AAPL flashcrashed (SPY almost perfectly after bumping into resistance as specified above in the last few days) yet when I checked google finance this morning the index had been stick saved to 1184!

What a joke. Surely nobody still believes this market to be a real market of supply and demand. Very glad I spent my night in FX rather than equities. With $6 billion in POMO completed overnight and NYSE cancelling any flash crash trades which seem to be occurring *at least *once or twice a week in various listings it seems silly to participate.

Courtesy zh:





Also courtesy zh, a quote from the Interactive Brokers CEO:


> As indicated in the recent flash crash report by the U.S. CFTC and SEC, internalizers suck off all the customer orders, but when an imbalance develops they are unable to handle it and they throw the switch to route the orders back to the exchanges, which no longer have the liquidity to deal with it. *Since the bulk of the volume is now being traded at prices relative to a displayed market that is no longer driven by real supply and demand, sudden imbalances of buy and sell orders will occur more and more often*, giving our industry more and more reputational headaches.



Link included, I advise all to read the full quote
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/in...-broken-market-nanex-conclusively-proves-hfts

I seem to recall in 2009 that many, even TH on this forum, bagging out zerohedge for being conspiracy fringe doomsday rubbish. Because apparently if you think the market structure is broken you must be a losing trader with an axe to grind. Funny how things work out.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P 500*

Holy iCrap!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: S&P 500*

Damn that Waddell & Reed


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P 500*

As per my recent postings that "something isn't quite right here"...

Let's take a look at the non-financials weighted against the broad NYSE. Outperforming on breakouts:



Now take a look at financials weighted against broad NYSE.
Underperforming non-stop since the flash crash:


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P 500*

just in addition to your post sinner in regards to the financials, following from bespoke highlighting which banks saw CDS spikes as the fraudclosure mess heated up last week:

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/15/bank-broker-default-risk.html




Could be an idea to keep an eye on BAC and WFC for any heads up to this particular mess(there seem to be quite a few of them at the moment) getting any worse


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P 500*



professor_frink said:


> just in addition to your post sinner in regards to the financials, following from bespoke highlighting which banks saw CDS spikes as the fraudclosure mess heated up last week:
> 
> http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/15/bank-broker-default-risk.html
> 
> View attachment 39273
> 
> 
> Could be an idea to keep an eye on BAC and WFC for any heads up to this particular mess(there seem to be quite a few of them at the moment) getting any worse




Thanks frinky, good stuff. 

My general approach is to buy strength in uptrends and short weakness in downtrends. October has so far seen Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary strength in the uptrend, if I wasn't flat equity this is where I'd be looking for longs in appropriate stocks/indices.

I like the default 65 day window for sector performance, using SPY as baseline.  Sector performance looks a bit different when examining the ASX (XJO baseline), to be expected.





Waiting for down-trend to officially start before firing up the weakness scans. My guess is broad weakness in Financials, Utilities, Technology, but we will have to wait and see.


----------



## bigdog

*Re: S&P 500*

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-yea...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

*2 years after market low, the little guy is back

As the bull market turns 2, investors flood back into stocks, more confident but still wary *

Dave Carpenter, AP Personal Finance Writer, On Tuesday March 8, 2011, 4:25 pm 

CHICAGO (AP) -- As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index has almost doubled since March 9, 2009, when it hit a 12-year low after the financial crisis. And the Dow Jones industrials are back above 12,000, about 2,000 points shy of their all-time high.

Little-guy investors appear to be on board. Since the beginning of the year, investors have put $24.2 billion into U.S. stock mutual funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. They withdrew $96.7 billion in 2010.

"It didn't feel right to be back in until now," says Richard Dukas, who heads a public relations firm in New York City. "I still don't want to put all my money in the market, but I believe we've come through the worst of it."

After the 2008 financial meltdown, Dukas and his wife converted their 401(k) retirement accounts into cash. They had been burned during the bubble in technology stocks a decade ago, and Dukas says he has been "extremely skittish" ever since.

Now Dukas, 48, says 85 percent of his portfolio is back in mutual funds, although he maintains a small cushion of cash.

More job security, strengthening retirement account balances and improvement in the overall U.S. economy are some of the factors that have brought everyday investors back to the market. A snapshot of what's happened:

-- The outlook of investors as measured by stock newsletters and market surveys has been extremely bullish for two or three months, says Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist for S&P Equity Research.

-- Many workers have enjoyed seeing their 401(k) balances return to where they stood at the market's peak because they kept contributing during the down years. Many who have maintained their 401(k) accounts for a decade or longer still have some ground to make up because of their larger starting balances.

-- Americans who still have jobs are as secure as they've been in 14 years. That's because the number of planned layoffs has fallen to a low, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The combination has boosted confidence and brought investors back to a rising market. The Dow closed Tuesday's trading at 12,214, up 87 percent from the 2009 low. It's still 14 percent below its all-time high in October 2007.

While the economy is improving, it will take a lot longer to erase the abject fear that average investors have felt about owning stocks the last two years, says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist for Strategas Research Partners in New York.

One reason to set aside their reservations: They can't find a better place to stash their money. The bull market in bonds has ended, money-market accounts are returning 1 percent or less, and the average two-year CD earns no more than 1.5 percent.

As a result, many investors returning to the market are tiptoeing back in. They're buying what Trennert calls "stocks that look like bonds" -- dividend-paying blue chips that they hope will hedge their risk by guaranteeing at least a dividend payout.

For example, while stocks like Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble haven't gone up much since 2009, their yields -- 3.5 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively -- mean investors can still pocket something.

"What swayed me is being frustrated having my money parked where it's earning almost nothing," says Debra Condren, a New York business consultant, who has been easing back into the market over the last four months. She still has only 30 percent of her investments in stocks, compared with 80 to 85 percent before the crash.

Besides reinvesting gradually, Condren says she's much more vigilant about her stocks. She says she won't hesitate to sell if she doesn't like what she sees in the market or senses a shift based on world events.

Among professional money managers, the shift back into stocks has been more dramatic. A February survey by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch of 270 top investment managers found them more bullish about stocks than at any time in the past decade.

But history shows experts may not have better insight about what's next. Plus, individual investors notoriously follow the crowd. So is it a worrisome sign that they're flocking back?

"Investors have the tendency to make the wrong decisions behaviorally," says Christopher Geczy, academic director of the Wealth Management Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.

When they pile in or out of stocks, he says, it often signals that the market is about to turn in the opposite direction. For instance, investors pumped nearly $91 billion into stock funds in 2007, just as the market was reaching its all-time peak.

Yet analysts point to signs that the run could keep going for quite a while, as long as the economy cooperates. Corporations are still sitting on billions of dollars in cash that they may ultimately put to work in the market.

The S&P 500 has an average gain of 17 percent in the third year of a presidential cycle. But the market also tends to grow much more slowly in the third year of a bull run.

Stock prices are still not high by historic standards. The S&P 500 index now trades at 15.6 times the operating earnings of its stocks over the past year, well under the historical average of 19.3.

There are plenty of investors still looking for an opportunity to get back in. Kenneth Kracmer, who owns a marketing firm in Dallas, is restless after cutting his stock allocation by half, to 30 percent.

But he worries about unemployment, state governments in financial distress and a market he sees as artificially high in view of all the challenging economic news.

Other investors are clearly on edge, too. Before Tuesday, the market had fallen nearly 3 percent in two and a half weeks because of concerns about unrest in the Middle East.

"I want to play it smart until there's a little bit of economic certainty," Kracmer says. "I don't want to get in just before another drop."

7242


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: S&P 500*



> Dave Carpenter, AP Personal Finance Writer, On *Tuesday March 8, 2011*, 4:25 pm
> 
> CHICAGO (AP) -- As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.
> "*It didn't feel right to be back in until now*," says Richard Dukas, who heads a public relations firm in New York City. "I still don't want to put all my money in the market, but *I believe we've come through the worst of it*."



Oh dear! P.R. firm?? 

Well my view on the situation now is the formation of a downside pennant. These formations can crystalise into a continuation of the downtrend but never a happening every time. Other outcomes could be a false breakdown out of the pennant then rising uptrend again, a false break to the upside and then breakdown again or the bottom is in with more promising economic news and optimism for the future.

I lean to the latter with one eye on any break up or down from the pennant.


----------



## lenny

*Re: S&P 500*

Does anyones have the charting software that allows you to overlay two stocks/two indices on the one chart.

If so could someone overlay the shanghai and the SP500 please?

Just trying to illistrate what looks to be the leading nature of the chinese market which has gone on to break Aug 9th lows which could happen to our market this week.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



lenny said:


> Does anyones have the charting software that allows you to overlay two stocks/two indices on the one chart.
> 
> If so could someone overlay the shanghai and the SP500 please?
> 
> Just trying to illistrate what looks to be the leading nature of the chinese market which has gone on to break Aug 9th lows which could happen to our market this week.




lenny, you could do this with the Bloomberg web site:




The bottom panel shows the Shanghai Composite and S&P500, past 6 months (you can specify longer or shorter time-frame).


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



lenny said:


> Does anyones have the charting software that allows you to overlay two stocks/two indices on the one chart.
> 
> If so could someone overlay the shanghai and the SP500 please?
> 
> Just trying to illistrate what looks to be the leading nature of the chinese market which has gone on to break Aug 9th lows which could happen to our market this week.




Same thing, zoomed in:


----------



## lenny

*Re: S&P 500*

Thanks Timmy.


----------



## lusk

*Re: S&P 500*

S&P broken through support and now stopped at 1123.

May need to strap in for this descent.:fan


----------



## Tint

*S&P Analysis*

(1276,50)The S&P plunged already below the 200 hours line, now s/t resistance at 1278,30. While below 1281,00 on an hourly closing we expect a 1270 undershooting. Note however that the indicators are already close to the oversold area showing also potential positive reversals.


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Tint said:


> (1276,50)The S&P plunged already below the 200 hours line, now s/t resistance at 1278,30. While below 1281,00 on an hourly closing we expect a 1270 undershooting. Note however that the indicators are already close to the oversold area showing also potential positive reversals.




???????????
pls show some charts


----------



## Tint

*01/16/2012 S&P Analysis*

The S&P confirmed a negative closing on Friday managing however to recover from a low at 1272,70. The weekly closing was instead still well positive, even strong. The indicators of the daily chart are well positive but still close to the overbought area; those of the weekly one are also positive supporting higher levels. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead mixed to negative this morning supporting some consolidation. The correction we had on Friday formed however a new positive reversal suggesting a s/t target at 1303,40.
Possible a test of the resistance line at 1291,60; the holding of this line will cause another drop this time toward 1265!! Only an hourly closing above 1294,70 will resume the move up supporting a firm 1300 overshooting!


----------



## Tint

*Re: S&P Analysis*



baby_swallow said:


> ???????????
> pls show some charts




I don't know how(((


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Tint said:


> I don't know how(((




Hi Tint, please read this thread before posting further.

Many thanks!


----------



## Tint

*Re: S&P Analysis*

The S&P is confirming a strong move up that already favoured a 1300 overshooting. We expect a test of the s/t target at 1303,40 with a possible direct overshooting toward the 1315 area, where we expect decent resistance and where we want to go short this contract in case of an overshooting!! The indicators of the daily chart are well positive but starting entering the overbought area. Those of the s/t ones are also positive supporting higher levels. Possible correction should find support at 1297,50 before the s/t support line at 1293,50.
We remain on the sideline.


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P Analysis*

@Tint, What's "s/t"?
BTW, good work..


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



baby_swallow said:


> @Tint, What's "s/t"?
> BTW, good work..




short term?


----------



## Tint

*Re: S&P Analysis*



baby_swallow said:


> @Tint, What's "s/t"?
> BTW, good work..




S/T - short term


----------



## Tint

*Re: S&P Analysis*

The S&P failed yesterday to confirm our s/t target despite the 1300 overshooting. While above 1286,30 we expect another test on the upside!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but close to the overbought area. Those of the s/t ones are negative this morning supporting some consolidation/ correction. Only a break below 1286,30 will however favour lower levels with the 200 hours line at 1284,07 the first attraction. A break below 1286,30 could however also confirm a S_H_S formation!!
We remain on the sideline.


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P Analysis*

The S&P and, specially the DOW, has been creeping up since the Dec holidays
on low volume. It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next few weeks when the rest of the traders comes back from their long vacation.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Feels like this mkt wants to continue to creep higher.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Hey MRC long time no hear. 

Agree it feels like it's going to be one of those grinding runs with dropping vols... sans any calamitous nonsense from the Bozos in Europe.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Hey MRC long time no hear.
> 
> Agree it feels like it's going to be one of those grinding runs with dropping vols... sans any calamitous nonsense from the Bozos in Europe.




Hey buddy, it has been a long time!  Been burrying my head, ironically learning the ins and outs of systematic trading.

It does indeed feel like that period from Sep 2010 to Feb 2011 where the S&P went nearly 300 points on the low vol grind.  

With the liquidity flush from the ECB (3 yr LTRO), then the Fed kicking the baseline trajectory for hikes down the road from mid-2013 to late 2014 and now the BoE increasing asset purchases, you can't fight it.  Add in strong EZ PMIs (good lead) and US data picking up and you have a real tide that will be hard to step in the way of.

Quick Q and you are prob just the man to ask, do you happen to know what are the major crop reports to watch for to avoid gap risk for the grains?  (soybean oil, soybeans, corn and wheat).  I ask because I'm testing a breakout model on these markets however I need to ensure I cut the trades on the day of the large grain reports or the gap risk (and particularly the assumption flip and reverses would have been filled) completely skews the testing results.  However, with so many crop reports, I'm really not sure which are the major ones to be careful of.....

BTW - wasn't your blog on options different?  I thought I remember it also being called 'The Naked Truth' but it being very comprehensive in the explanation of options strategies.....


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Great to see you back MRC & Co!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Great to see you back MRC & Co!




Hey Timmy, thx mate.

How is the trading going?


----------



## barney

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Great to see you back MRC & Co!




Ditto MRC  ..... or as TH used to refer to you ... Mr. C 

I notice TH has also popped his head in a couple of times recently so hopefully you two guys can find the time to post a bit more often  ..... The quality of posts and the knowledge you guys used to add was invaluable and very much missed ..... Cheers.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



barney said:


> I notice TH has also popped his head in a couple of times recently so hopefully you two guys can find the time to post a bit more often  ..... The quality of posts and the knowledge you guys used to add was invaluable and very much missed ..... Cheers.



And double ditto; well said barney.



MRC & Co said:


> How is the trading going?



It is a constant source of grounding in reality.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

You guys are too kind.

Mkts are like that lately hey Timmy, very hard to read over last few months although I think they are coming out of it now (then again, you never know with all the artificial price action from intervention).  'Price discovery' seemed to have gone out the window for a while there.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Quick Q and you are prob just the man to ask, do you happen to know what are the major crop reports to watch for to avoid gap risk for the grains?  (soybean oil, soybeans, corn and wheat).  I ask because I'm testing a breakout model on these markets however I need to ensure I cut the trades on the day of the large grain reports or the gap risk (and particularly the assumption flip and reverses would have been filled) completely skews the testing results.  However, with so many crop reports, I'm really not sure which are the major ones to be careful of.....




I don't know of any quick and dirty lists of upcoming reports such as econoday.com etc (though that one does include energy reports which is handy) without being the client of a full service broker.

But http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.php should help with a bit of digging.



> BTW - wasn't your blog on options different?  I thought I remember it also being called 'The Naked Truth' but it being very comprehensive in the explanation of options strategies.....




The other blog was Sigma Options. It's still up but for various reasons too complicated to explain here, I started this new one... I still don't know why. ::::


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



wayneL said:


> I don't know of any quick and dirty lists of upcoming reports such as econoday.com etc (though that one does include energy reports which is handy) without being the client of a full service broker.
> 
> But http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_Subject/index.php should help with a bit of digging.
> 
> 
> 
> The other blog was Sigma Options. It's still up but for various reasons too complicated to explain here, I started this new one... I still don't know why. ::::




Do you still have a link for Sigma Options?  

On the commods, cheers for the link, I'll have a look.  I probably didn't explain myself properly.  I was more just interested if there is a certain report every month or quarter etc which causes explosive gapping after it is released mid-session?  Not a list, I'll be able to dig one out from a broker, but more just which report to actually avoid trading over to avoid a big gap.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Do you still have a link for Sigma Options?
> 
> On the commods, cheers for the link, I'll have a look.  I probably didn't explain myself properly.  I was more just interested if there is a certain report every month or quarter etc which causes explosive gapping after it is released mid-session?  Not a list, I'll be able to dig one out from a broker, but more just which report to actually avoid trading over to avoid a big gap.




sigmaoptions.blogspot.com

The reports that cause explosive moves are ones pertaining to acerages planted, projected harvests, actual harvests, Petroleum stores etc. Should be able to find those at that link.

Also watch for times where weather events can put a cat amongst the pigeons, the so called suicide seasonals. Coffee in southern hemisphere winter being the classic example. Frost in Brazil = gapping coffee markets.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Legend, thx.

Yeh seasonals fair enough, but can't add them into backtesting as all hindsight.  Just want to ensure I take out trades on dates the major known reports were out.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

As the S&P500 approaches its post-2009 highs again it feels like sentiment is getting a bit ahead. Some quite bullish stuff around, some of it is bordering on euphoric (which never ends well). Apparently even Roubini has turned bullish? 

Being extra careful up here.


----------



## blue0810

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> As the S&P500 approaches its post-2009 highs again it feels like sentiment is getting a bit ahead. Some quite bullish stuff around, some of it is bordering on euphoric (which never ends well). Apparently even Roubini has turned bullish?
> 
> Being extra careful up here.
> 
> View attachment 46012




I’m wondering if Marc  Faber has been turned bullish too.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*



blue0810 said:


> I’m wondering if Marc  Faber has been turned bullish too.




His fanbois would never forgive him.


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P 500*



Timmy said:


> As the S&P500 approaches its post-2009 highs again it feels like sentiment is getting a bit ahead. Some quite bullish stuff around, some of it is bordering on euphoric (which never ends well). Apparently even Roubini has turned bullish?
> 
> Being extra careful up here.
> 
> View attachment 46012




I know we are talking about S&P 500 here, but the action on BHP/RIO on the profit numbers are telling imho.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P 500*



blue0810 said:


> I’m wondering if Marc  Faber has been turned bullish too.




Faber has always said stocks are the better asset class versus govbonds in the macro sense.

i.e. bonds are "worthless" stocks are at least somewhat tangible.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P 500*

RTH selling last night (Aust. time), most aggressive I had seen for a while (first arrow)... but having said that the 'buy on dip' trade came good again (second arrow) ... slipping away quite hard in the overnight (Aust. time) now (you guessed it, third arrow).

No Fr. Ted today, chart will have to do. 1*1 P&F


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P 500*



blue0810 said:


> I’m wondering if Marc  Faber has been turned bullish too.



I heard him talking just the other day and he said that equities were going to be OK because money is going to be printed in the US and Euro. So he was basically saying things are still totolly rooted however stocks are a gasa man!artyman:



skc said:


> I know we are talking about S&P 500 here, but the action on BHP/RIO on the profit numbers are telling imho.



Yep.  Add that to China which reported - less in, less out and higher inflatuation.  Doesn't really leave them with a lever to pull!! - a communists worst nightmare!

I don't even know why people bother to worry about what figures come out of the Dragon Hole any way.  I mean they are totally dependent on exports and that's basically Euroland and the States.  If the US and Euroland are growing China's growing and vice versa.  The Chinese aint gonna become big spending consumers with double door fridges, as much as the press would love to tell us they will - It's not in their DNA!!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

If these dips come with elevated daily volume, they are probably going to be cracking buys me thinks.....


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*







Did not still get to the target, thought that the 1st wave and the 5th one should be more os less equal in price.

Sorry if I don ´t wright well, I come from Spain (Europe).


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Demiurgo said:


> Sorry if I don ´t wright well, I come from Spain (Europe).




Hey Demiurgio, we ain't like them Yankee gringos, we know Spain is in Europe. 

Welcome to the forum compadre.


----------



## barney

*Re: S&P Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Hey Demiurgio, we ain't like them Yankee gringos, we know Spain is in Europe.





Lol ...... I hope Demiurgo (at least you could have spelt his name correctly Wayne!! ..) .... understands Australian humour ...... If not ...... he soon will


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*



wayneL said:


> Hey Demiurgio, we ain't like them Yankee gringos, we know Spain is in Europe.
> 
> Welcome to the forum compadre.



 Thanks WayneL, but we don ´t say "gringo" that is used in SudAmerica, mainly in MÃ©xico I think.


barney said:


> Lol ...... I hope Demiurgo (at least you could have spelt his name correctly Wayne!! ..) .... understands Australian humour ...... If not ...... he soon will



Surely it will take some time to understand Australian humour Barney, I don ´t speak english well, last night I coul not sleep and that side of the word was the one active, thats for what I ´m here , ever thought I do speak some english, the english I learned is the "Queen ´s English" and I see there are some differences, anyway I will surely let my charts talk for me.

This is a CFD ´s chart, so that don ´t look at the price, it will allways be different from the Market, as the broker fixes it, there will allways some points of difference. S&P futures daily and three possible reversal points.


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Nasdaq 100 futures and it ´s eternal chanel.


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*

An 4 hours Dax futures Chart, and another eternal chanel, wile we don ´t break chanels long possibilities are in force.


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*

A way of seeing the bear market based on the Ibex 35 (Spanish market) weekly, I hope to be wrong , Europe is not well, and I ´m afraid Spain is one of the reasons, even thought it seems we are working on to change this


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Demiurgo said:


> Thanks WayneL, but we don ´t say "gringo" that is used in SudAmerica, mainly in MÃ©xico I think.




Correct. 

But the word in fact originated in your country:



> The word was used in Spain - although the word is nowadays rarely heard there - long before it crossed the Atlantic to denote foreign, non-native speakers of Spanish.[3]
> 
> The word is first attested in Terreros y Pando's Diccionario castellano con las voces de Ciencias y Artes y sus correspondientes en las 3 lenguas francesa, latina e italiana in 1786, which says:
> Gringos llaman en MÃ¡laga a los extranjeros que tienen cierta especie de acento, que los priva de una locuciÃ³n fÃ¡cil y natural Castellana; y en Madrid dan el mismo nombre con particularidad a los irlandeses
> 
> Gringos is what, in Malaga, they call foreigners who have any kind of accent that prevents them from speaking easy and natural Castillian; and in Madrid they give the same name in particular to the Irish.[4]
> Most scholars agree that gringo is a variant of griego 'Greek' (cf. Greek to me);[5][6][7][8][9] but it has also been argued that griego > gringo is phonetically unlikely (it requires two separate steps, griego > grigo, and after, grigo > gringo), and that it may instead come from the language of the Spanish Romani, CalÃ³, as a variant of (pere)gringo 'wayfarer, stranger'.[6]
> Its entry in a 1817 French-Spanish dictionary, written by Antonio de Capmany,[10] includes:
> .. hablar en griego, en guirigay, en gringo.[11]
> 
> ... to speak in Greek, in "guirigay", in "gringo". Gringo, griego: aplÃ­case a lo que se dice o escribe sin entenderse.[12]
> 
> Gringo, Greek : applies to what is said or written without understanding it.
> Also in common Spanish language it is frequent to say "hablar en chino" (to speak in Chinese) to refer to somebody whose language is difficult understand, re-enforcing the notion that alluding to other nations is a frequent "clichÃ©". Johann Jakob von Tschudi observed that the term "gringo" was used in Lima, Peru in the 1840s:
> Gringo is a nickname applied to Europeans. It is probably derived from Griego (Greek). The Germans say of anything incomprehensible, "That sounds like Spanish,"--and in like manner the Spaniards say of anything they do not understand, "That is Greek." [13]




Nothing to do with the S&P 500 however.


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Ladies and gentlemen, the Nasdaq 100 is still in his chanel, but lets have a look to this  engulfing bearish, it doesn ´t tell us any good thing. Be carefull there out


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Yeh, BoE and Fed out saying basically their liquidity dump is over and everybody knows after LTRO2 end of Feb (which already has high expectations factored in) then the ECB is in the same boat, hence the global liquidity push dries up other than perhaps more from Japan down the road.  

Could be a good time to at least squeeze a long market.  

Then again, so hard to fight liquidity, I would prefer to be buying dips here rather than trying to pick highs.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, BoE and Fed out saying basically their liquidity dump is over and everybody knows after LTRO2 end of Feb (which already has high expectations factored in) then the ECB is in the same boat, hence the global liquidity push dries up other than perhaps more from Japan down the road.
> 
> Could be a good time to at least squeeze a long market.
> 
> Then again, so hard to fight liquidity, I would prefer to be buying dips here rather than trying to pick highs.




As usual in the US markets, an increase in volume corresponded to a nice bear day. a little more pronounced on the NQ it seems than ES. Not sure it qualifies as "climactic", so maybe you are right on the cracker buys MRC. My swing system isn't long yet, but I can see a few of the tighter mean reversion systems were probably happy longs into last nights close of the QQQ.

What do you think MRC, does more (relative) volume mean more crackers out of the NQ vs ES?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> As usual in the US markets, an increase in volume corresponded to a nice bear day. a little more pronounced on the NQ it seems than ES. Not sure it qualifies as "climactic", so maybe you are right on the cracker buys MRC. My swing system isn't long yet, but I can see a few of the tighter mean reversion systems were probably happy longs into last nights close of the QQQ.
> 
> What do you think MRC, does more (relative) volume mean more crackers out of the NQ vs ES?




Yep, for a long while now, any high vol down day has been the goods to buy in the US and makes even more sense now with the liquidity bull behind an overall underweight and underallocated market (despite perhaps long short-term spec positioning).

I'm the same, I have a long swing system that didn't get long because we didn't get a deep enough pullback.  But prop entries on discretionary trading are long.

I'm not sure on NQ vs ES, I don't do much spreading to be honest Sinner, but I think the NQ could continue to outperform until upto the FB IPO.  That, IMHO, will mark a high in the NQ (at least medium-term) or perhaps just relative.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> but I can see a few of the tighter mean reversion systems were probably happy longs into last nights close of the QQQ.




Yep, and the trend followers managed to avoid the whip, based on NE CTA index and sub-trend.


----------



## chrislp

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Has S&P analysis even been relevant for the last two years?

I'd say NASDAQ composite, DJ transports & Russel 2000 have more relevance.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



chrislp said:


> Has S&P analysis even been relevant for the last two years?
> 
> I'd say NASDAQ composite, DJ transports & Russel 2000 have more relevance.




Relevant to what?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Relevant to what?




Yep, same question from me.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I'm the same, I have a long swing system that didn't get long because we didn't get a deep enough pullback. But *prop entries on discretionary trading are long.*




Nice one then, I don't trade equity mean reversion in bull markets, so had to sit that one out.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> Nice one then, I don't trade equity mean reversion in bull markets, so had to sit that one out.




I find mean rev entries in equities and bonds as a whole are generally a lot more profitable than breakouts.  Vice-versa on commodities.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I find mean rev entries in equities and bonds as a whole are generally a lot more profitable than breakouts.  Vice-versa on commodities.




Well, I definitely agree with your statement but my research indicates pretty clearly the profits of mean reversion (especially those tighter systems which would have jumped on last week) are largely derived from equity bear markets so as a matter of efficient capital use I switch trading strategies depending on the equity market regime. 

Funnily enough, once we are in an equity bull I am usually looking for breakouts in the index components or to swing trade the index itself.


----------



## chrislp

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Sorry I should have been clearer.

Relevant to US market analysis. If you trade the futures contract that's obviously a different story but if you trade US stocks I find that the NASDAQ & DJ transports give leading & better signals for turnarounds. 

I was curious if others thought the same but maybe this should be in a separate thread.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> Well, I definitely agree with your statement but my research indicates pretty clearly the profits of mean reversion (especially those tighter systems which would have jumped on last week) are largely derived from equity bear markets so as a matter of efficient capital use I switch trading strategies depending on the equity market regime.
> 
> Funnily enough, once we are in an equity bull I am usually looking for breakouts in the index components or to swing trade the index itself.




Ah yes, this is why the tighter mean rev entries were prop, becuase they reflected my thoughts we are going into a low vol grind higher as I was discussing with WayneL on the previous page.  Systematically I agree though and otherwise only look for deeper pullbacks.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Second uptake of LTRO tonight along with Bernanke testimony.

Could really explode tonight, watch for it......


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Second uptake of LTRO tonight along with Bernanke testimony.
> 
> Could really explode tonight, watch for it......




which way?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> which way?




Ah, here he is!  

Which way you reckon?    Up.  EOM, industry is long, window dressing?  Mkts isn't stretched either on CFTC positioning or adv/dec for S&P.  Liquidity pump to come not to mention USD index is looking weak.  Not sure how you could stand in the way unless the LTRO is a real shocker (estimate appears anywhere from 300bil to 1tril), but with one more chance to get almost free liquidity for your bank without any stigma attached, why wouldn't you take as much as you could get (may push towards the 1 tril range).

BTW, when you making the trek to my part of the woods!?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Yep she's been a nice day of window dressing already today. 

Mid April - put the beer ice now so its ready...


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Ah, mid-april, perfect timing, the beer will be cold and flowing!

Don't like the SPi selling off into the close, ominous although only long Nikkei and DAX on the equities right now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yep she's been a nice day of window dressing already today.




Up untill 30 mins ago anyway


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Here we go on LTRO2!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Was all going smoothly until Bernanke opened his mouth about no QE3!  Ciant!


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Was all going smoothly until Bernanke opened his mouth about no QE3!  Ciant!




I'm having a great time trading the swings this morning on AUDUSD. Thanks for the overnight vol!


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> I'm having a great time trading the swings this morning on AUDUSD. Thanks for the overnight vol!




The walk up in Gold has been pretty smooth too.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

It is literally a walk up in gold and in silver!  Was actually long both last night, but stopped both and then flipped short gold which saved me on the metals luckily!  Still short though


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> The walk up in Gold has been pretty smooth too.




Wow that looks real nice, thanks for pointing it out! I don't make a habit of trading gold anymore so don't usually check the intraday charts during Tokyo. I've had a good run this morning, gonna finish my week a day early, at least as far as intraday shenanigans are concerned.


----------



## rx2

*Re: S&P 500*

Does anyone know where I can get hold of the historic index constituents for the S&P500?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

And the grind up continues (although Bernanke caused a stop on half my Dax and two thirds of my Nikkei).


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> Was all going smoothly until Bernanke opened his mouth about no QE3!  Ciant!




You know how I like my squiggly lines.  How smooth is it going?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> And the grind up continues




Just some more squiggles,

This time on the Nas. Same pattern, new highs in the index yet divergence with the amount of stocks going up. Is that good?




And have a look at the 52 week highs. Or lack thereof new 52 week highs.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Yep, things like the Facebook IPO are doing their job.....for the moment.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Just some more squiggles,
> 
> This time on the Nas. Same pattern, new highs in the index yet divergence with the amount of stocks going up. Is that good?




Right now I'm going to go with no. Breadth has fallen away a little too quickly for my liking at the moment. IMHO the market isn't looking weak enough for a short here, but has me concerned enough to lighten up on longs. Currently I'm going to start looking  for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Right now I'm going to go with no. Breadth has fallen away a little too quickly for my liking at the moment. IMHO the market isn't looking weak enough for a short here, but has me concerned enough to lighten up on longs. Currently I'm going to start looking  for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P




I agree. I wouldn't be chasing new longs right here but certainly an interesting point in time. 

Another little internal change. Nas vs Russell 2000 correlation has just broken down for the first time in a loooooong time.




Sorry about all the charts guys. Have just figured out how to use NTs multi series charts. This could get out of hand.  :


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> I agree. I wouldn't be chasing new longs right here but certainly an interesting point in time.
> 
> Another little internal change. Nas vs Russell 2000 correlation has just broken down for the first time in a loooooong time.
> 
> View attachment 46312
> 
> 
> Sorry about all the charts guys. Have just figured out how to use NTs multi series charts. This could get out of hand.  :




I've watched this as a pair since the flash crash in 2010 along with a few other similar ones. The early response in Jul 2011 was identical to the week of the flash crash, but with a huge expansion of the short-term (2-3y) range which kicked the pair (unlike the flash crash) into non-stationary mode. 

I say short-term because if you look at a long term chart you can see the damn thing has actually been up-trending (large beating small) since Q1 2007. 

An interesting thing to note is the pair responded *opposite* to the Jul 2011 decline versus the GFC decline despite the magnitude of the moves being very similar.

To me it looks like the pair will set up a new range ~3-3.25 stacked on top of the old one ~2.75-3, probably safe to play with a close eye to cash VXN below 22.5-25.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> IMHO the market isn't looking weak enough for a short here, but has me concerned enough to lighten up on longs. Currently I'm going to start looking  for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P




Yeh I agree, I could even see a shallow pullback just through a 50 handle (perhaps 47-48s) before grinding around more rangebound like the DAX and FTSE have been doing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Asian indexes are breaking down boys. Risk currencies not looking hot. Commodities a bit stinky.

Don't fight the squiggly lines boys.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Asian indexes are breaking down boys. Risk currencies not looking hot. Commodities a bit stinky.
> 
> Don't fight the squiggly lines boys.




hehe, word. I took a couple of scratches trying to long the AUDUSD into the rates announcement (-5 and a +5) but the squiggles were screaming short and *nobody* was willing to bid 1.065 at 2:28 so I switched short right there and came out +20 real quick as the rates announcement came out. I wasn't game to let it run, as soon as some size appeared I got out. 

Good start to the week!


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Currently I'm going to start looking  for reasons to increase size again if we get down to the 1340-45 area on the S&P




LOL! That was fast. Lowest print for the past 2 weeks, 4 days out from a high, and 3 consecutive down days - all suggest a decent 1-5 day upside edge from here. Would have liked a bit more volume on last night's move, but was at least good to see it rising some


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P Analysis*

S&P....been a long time comin'


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> LOL! That was fast. Lowest print for the past 2 weeks, 4 days out from a high, and 3 consecutive down days - all suggest a decent 1-5 day upside edge from here. Would have liked a bit more volume on last night's move, but was at least good to see it rising some




Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?

Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?
> 
> Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?




I'd say most of the money has already ran. Outside of index traders anyway. I wouldn't be buying this as the first dip unless it was a quick flip like Professor is pointing out or it turns into something nasty over the next week and we end up down near 1320


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> Is it just me or does it feel like everyone is expecting this dip to be shallow?
> 
> Is the tail risk of Greece defaulting adquately priced in?




Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in. 

As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.
> 
> As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.




Yep Frinky. Folks just want to buy at the moment. They've just bumped up VIX for the boyz.


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.
> 
> As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.




Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months. 

The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children 

But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.
> 
> The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children
> 
> But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.




Hedgers (using the CBOE equity put/call as a proxy) haven't been so complacent on this run-up as in previous, so it's possible that without a 'selling event' the dip will be just that.

vixandmore had a good recent post on magnitudes which is definitely worth a geez. Link+snippet:
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/putting-current-26-spx-pullback-in.html


> ...investors should probably keep in mind that the median pullback during the last three years has lasted 7 trading days and dropped the SPX a total of 5.6%. Were we to see a median pullback form this time around, it would suggest a bottom of about SPX 1301 sometime on Friday after the employment report.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Don't think that kind of an event can ever be properly priced in.
> 
> As for the dip being shallow or not, I generally find that it's better to keep buying the dips fairly early on really strong upmoves like the one we've had the past few months. If I sit back and wait for a larger correction, then I end up sitting on the sidelines way too often, only to finally step in right at the worst possible moment.




On fire Frink, 40s was a great level!

Agree though on equity dips at the moment, same as was talked about previously in the thread, when its on a liquidity flush, dips tend to be much more shallow.  Once the CBs let the mkts be, dips can become true corrections.  That said, we have BoE and ECB tonight (and the smaller Canadian and NZ CBs meeting which while won't make a large market impact, can sometimes be interpreted as a lead to other antipodean and growth economy CB action).  Good to see some top notch discussion from some of you 'old' trading heads!


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P Analysis*

God I wish you guys would speak English.


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*

No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?




I bought a few weekly SPY 130 puts for 10c last night around London lunchtime. Otherwise, not exposed so not concerned. Let 'er rip!


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> No one is at all concerned that Greece can blow tonight? Or is that so priced in that it might actually be a positive?




If it does there is one nice walk up going into it.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*

There are problems in Greece?


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> If it does there is one nice walk up going into it.




That's what I don't like about it... it feel better if the market was less complacent. 



MRC & Co said:


> There are problems in Greece?




No. Only problems with those who lend/lent to Greece. 

Has anyone got a good website doing the "Debt swap tally live" or something like that?



sinner said:


> I bought a few weekly SPY 130 puts for 10c last night around London lunchtime. Otherwise, not exposed so not concerned. Let 'er rip!




10c? I see the 9 Mar are going for 4c, 17 Mar @ 26c and 30 Mar @ 79c. 

I think I will buy some DAX puts...


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> Interesting view. I agree with buy early dips but I wonder if this dip can actually be considered "early" in a move that's occured over 3 months.
> 
> The Greece deadline may or may not be significant... but I have lightened up a fair bit over the past week. Needed to take some profit off the table and feed my children
> 
> But there's no denying that strong up move often happens when you (actually me) least expect.




Sorry skc I'll clarify a little, I'm referring to early in the context of buying a dip 4 days out from a high, not early in that I've been waiting 3 months to get set on a dip(if that's even what you were getting at?)



MRC & Co said:


> On fire Frink, 40s was a great level!
> 
> Agree though on equity dips at the moment, same as was talked about previously in the thread, when its on a liquidity flush, dips tend to be much more shallow.  Once the CBs let the mkts be, dips can become true corrections.  That said, we have BoE and ECB tonight (and the smaller Canadian and NZ CBs meeting which while won't make a large market impact, can sometimes be interpreted as a lead to other antipodean and growth economy CB action).  Good to see some top notch discussion from some of you 'old' trading heads!




Thanks MRC, good to see you and TH floating around again


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



professor_frink said:


> Sorry skc I'll clarify a little, I'm referring to early in the context of buying a dip 4 days out from a high, not early in that I've been waiting 3 months to get set on a dip(if that's even what you were getting at?)




Thanks for the clarification. I was thinking early in relation to the uptrend, rather than early in relation to the start of the dip.

Looks like the US should challenge the new highs again, while we still muck around below 4300.



professor_frink said:


> Thanks MRC, good to see you and TH floating around again




+1


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Not much follow through for Asia today.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Not much follow through for Asia today.




That's what I was just thinking!  I'm long to the hilt CL on 3 diff models but it doesn't feel quite right....


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> That's what I was just thinking!  I'm long to the hilt CL on 3 diff models but it doesn't feel quite right....




People still trade CL? Why not the Brent contracts which aren't so affected by regional issues (re Cushing/Oklahoma)? Although looking at the charts, probably some of those models wouldn't have called for Brent longs since the last swing low was actually higher unlike in CL. IMHO CL ain't what it used to be. 

Plenty of fun to be had on AUDUSD today. 

I had a good, if rather unusual, week. Reds P/L, blues size (>0 is long, <0 is short).





Woohoo! See ya Tuesday!


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


>




Well done sinner!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



notting said:


> God I wish you guys would speak English.




If there are certain things you don't understand, just ask and will try and put it in more simple English.

Enjoy the wkend Sinner, don't go too wild on the profits!


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> No. Only problems with those who lend/lent to Greece.




haha, yeh, my comment was sarcasm, sorry.  Point being, markets used to go and look over the edge of the abyss, before recoiling on Government intervention (as Soros would put it).  These days (after GFC) Governments seem to try and frontrun the market, of which is meant to be the frontrunner.  So you have a market that is ignoring the entire Greek situation because everybody knows buttons will be pushed and things will come together in time.  Any wonder why every major bond auction the market actually watches ends up with a great bid to cover.  Markets are muddling through what really should be a major concern (structural deficits creating this debt crisis which no doubt will continue) and bad news is being efficiently priced into the market within a day before it is reversed on the next wave of liquidity.  Shocking price action to trade on any form of daily candle trading system (as evidenced by most systematic funds in the BTOP), but makes an easy macro and discretionary overlay (that overlay is what single handily pulled Winton (one of the worlds largest funds) out of negative by switching allocations to sub-strategies).


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*

LOL I'm feeling a little Greek :bloated::whip


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> That's what I was just thinking!  I'm long to the hilt CL on 3 diff models but it doesn't feel quite right....




Is that you holding up CL while the rest goes down the pipe?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Is that you holding up CL while the rest goes down the pipe?




haha, I'm already in, no ammo left, but feel free to join!  

Sinner, never actually even tested the models over Brent data, but thx for the idea.


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> (that overlay is what single handily pulled Winton (one of the worlds largest funds) out of negative by switching allocations to sub-strategies).




Or so I believe....


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> haha, I'm already in, no ammo left, but feel free to join!




Its pretty strong. Last hour considering the reaction of the futs & FX to Greek bond swap. everything lost 0.5%, CL went up 0.5%

Very flighty market at the mo


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Its pretty strong. Last hour considering the reaction of the futs & FX to Greek bond swap. everything lost 0.5%, CL went up 0.5%
> 
> Very flighty market at the mo




Hopefully she has legs on her like Black Caviar!

But yeh, CL has been acting by itself lately, moving on supply concerns rather than demand ('risk appetite').

Always the best sign I think when a market shows strength when it should typically be displaying weakness.  Then again I thought that about the Aussie a couple days ago and the thing turned on a dime (although I thought looked weak when it should have been strong).


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> haha, yeh, my comment was sarcasm, sorry.




Yes I know you were sarcastic... and so was my response 



MRC & Co said:


> Point being, markets used to go and look over the edge of the abyss, before recoiling on Government intervention (as Soros would put it).  These days (after GFC) Governments seem to try and frontrun the market, of which is meant to be the frontrunner.  So you have a market that is ignoring the entire Greek situation because everybody knows buttons will be pushed and things will come together in time.  Any wonder why every major bond auction the market actually watches ends up with a great bid to cover.  Markets are muddling through what really should be a major concern (structural deficits creating this debt crisis which no doubt will continue) and bad news is being efficiently priced into the market within a day before it is reversed on the next wave of liquidity.  Shocking price action to trade on any form of daily candle trading system (as evidenced by most systematic funds in the BTOP), but makes an easy macro and discretionary overlay (that overlay is what single handily pulled Winton (one of the worlds largest funds) out of negative by switching allocations to sub-strategies).




I've only really started trading since 08. 

Was there ever a time when government intervention isn't driving every market sentiment change?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> Yes I know you were sarcastic... and so was my response
> 
> 
> 
> I've only really started trading since 08.
> 
> Was there ever a time when government intervention isn't driving every market sentiment change?




Not since I've followed it (although that was the problem in the great depression I believe, no liquidity being provided).  My point is it is much more proactive these days, it used to be far more reactive, which is what is making guys like Druckenmiller retire, and Soros and Tudor Jones negative.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*

This snippet from the Bill Holter was so interesting I had to come back and share it as part of skc discussion re 'Greece priced in'...

I have bolded the sentences I thought were interesting/relevant. The rest of the article is mainly about gold.
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs003/1101357242253/archive/1109470730287.html


> ...
> 
> *No matter what the ISDA says, this is a default and someone, somewhere has to take a loss. *The ECB can do whatever they like and price Greek debt at par or even a premium if they like, bankrupt is bankrupt and all the perfume in the world cannot make it smell like anything other than what it is, the end of the long line of sweeping dog crap debt under the rug. *The amazing thing is that equity markets have waited until THE decision week to make a move, so much for "it's all priced into the market".*
> 
> ...
> 
> Has anyone in Washington or Wall St. really thought this one through?  A Greek default no matter how it is handled is going to cause massive disruptions.  *No "default trigger" leads to CDS owners getting stiffed and sitting naked with uninsured losses on their bonds, OR it is a default trigger and CDS sellers get buried.*  Like I said, someone, somewhere is going to take a loss, *SOMEONE gets buried big time.*
> 
> ...rest of article continues




It's a pretty blunt perspective but I think quite a valid one. Either CDS writers or CDS buyers are gonna take a loss, it's gonna have big consequences right?


----------



## MRC & Co

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> It's a pretty blunt perspective but I think quite a valid one. Either CDS writers or CDS buyers are gonna take a loss, it's gonna have big consequences right?




I'm not sure, are we in unchartered territory?


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> I'm not sure, are we in unchartered territory?




Not sure. The way I see it (keeping in mind the Greek 1Y was trading ~150% 12 months ago now it's trading ~1000%):

Scenario 1 Default triggered, CDS writers take a loss. CDS writers are UK, US, EU fins. 

Scenario 2: Default not triggered, bondholders take a loss. Bondholders are UK, EU core fins, to which the US fins are exposed.

Are the fin indices really pricing this loss in?


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> Not sure. The way I see it (keeping in mind the Greek 1Y was trading ~150% 12 months ago now it's trading ~1000%):
> 
> Scenario 1 Default triggered, CDS writers take a loss. CDS writers are UK, US, EU fins.
> 
> Scenario 2: Default not triggered, bondholders take a loss. Bondholders are UK, EU core fins, to which the US fins are exposed.
> 
> Are the fin indices really pricing this loss in?




The EU financials were all trading below book value anyway so it wasn't like the market hasn't written them down already. 

There is going to be a large impact on the other sovereign CDS market you would think with all the Greece CDS buyers getting a royal shaft...


----------



## barney

*Re: S&P Analysis*



notting said:


> God I wish you guys would speak English.




 LOL ...... This thread is reminding me of the "good old days" on ASF .... so much quality info being divulged by the "boyz that know stuff" ....  Keep it up lads


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Mostly down starts to the week are bullish, especially in Bull runs. BUT sometimes when they get carry through they end up being very nasty. On top of that the three days up after falls early last week is a nice short setup. Not sure If I have been reading too much but there's not much to be bullish on out there. Dax start will be telling IMO.


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Mostly down starts to the week are bullish, especially in Bull runs. BUT sometimes when they get carry through they end up being very nasty. On top of that the three days up after falls early last week is a nice short setup. Not sure If I have been reading too much but there's not much to be bullish on out there. Dax start will be telling IMO.
> 
> View attachment 46403




Was pretty weak in Tokyo today, I didn't trade but the usual setup which I would've shorted went well beyond expectations in the AUDUSD, especially for Monday! Probably could've finished the week four days early on that one  ... I also noticed Nikkei and KOSPI took a bath while HSI was moving up nicely in the afternoon session.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> ... I also noticed Nikkei and KOSPI took a bath while HSI was moving up nicely in the afternoon session.




Yes should of stayed away


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P Analysis*



MRC & Co said:


> If there are certain things you don't understand, just ask and will try and put it in more simple English.



Thanks MRC I only just noticed that response.
It was just a little bit of a joke.  I think I understand most of what you guys are talking about, though I am prone to self delusion!!


----------



## sinner

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes should of stayed away




What was up with that? Just a squeeze? USD/CNY got pegged much higher today but that was in the morning fixing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



sinner said:


> What was up with that? Just a squeeze? USD/CNY got pegged much higher today but that was in the morning fixing.




Probably the same evil market manipulators who are moving up everything else today.  

But really a nice setup for a squeeze. Arvo open lower, three pushes down, each a little less range than the last. Then Euro markets opens down but not much. Boom poor old daytraders stuck the wrong side and too slow to see it.


----------



## barney

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Now up over 3% since the 6th of March and looking like going for more .... 4% will bring it to around low 1390's ...... 5% would take it to around 1405 ish   

Just watching with interest at these altitudes ..... The next "Batman" trade could be a real cracker


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: S&P Analysis*



barney said:


> Now up over 3% since the 6th of March and looking like going for more .... 4% will bring it to around low 1390's ...... 5% would take it to around 1405 ish
> 
> Just watching with interest at these altitudes ..... The next "Batman" trade could be a real cracker




IMO another 10%+ selloff isn't really a probability until we get above 1430 - 1440


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*

What a night. Can the US really be on the road to recovery? Or is it one of those market always rises on election year thing?



barney said:


> Now up over 3% since the 6th of March and looking like going for more .... 4% will bring it to around low 1390's ...... 5% would take it to around 1405 ish
> 
> Just watching with interest at these altitudes ..... The next "Batman" trade could be a real cracker




The Lisa Simpson trade weren't so bad either


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Market is rigged....according to this fund manager.
US market has been on $5Trillion steroid...
I tend to agree...
The S&P has now almost recovered - even when US economy is still a train wreck. 

http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/03/10/bidermans-daily-edge-392012-rigged-market-conventional-wisdom/

BTW, last night on ES. the last hour of trading looks more like a short covering rally. 
Those who were anticipating a sell off after the Fed were pounded.


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> What a night.
> View attachment 46419




Yeah, except one tiny weeny little thing is just bothering me slightly.  
Why do you think Bernanke asked for those stress tests?


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P Analysis*



barney said:


> Now up over 3% since the 6th of March and looking like going for more .... 4% will bring it to around low 1390's ...... 5% would take it to around 1405 ish
> 
> Just watching with interest at these altitudes ..... The next "Batman" trade could be a real cracker




Batman returns?




You'd think it goes back to test 1400 before the real down leg... but who knows.


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P Analysis*

I love Batman.


----------



## barney

*Re: S&P Analysis*



skc said:


> Batman returns?
> 
> You'd think it goes back to test 1400 before the real down leg... but who knows.




Its only a pint sized Batman, but they eventually morph into bigger ones

Shorts are being well squeezed tonight ...... 

Areas of interest ....... 50% squeeze back to 1385 ish over the next couple of days 

Low push down to 1345 ish  ....... Up towards the end of the month if it bounces off the lows.

Under the old lows .......... start looking for a reverse Batman


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*

I agree with the possible batman, perhaps, by the neckline Robin may appear


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

By Doug Kass04/30/12 - 12:00 PM EDT

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11513200/1/fair-market-value-update.html



			
				Doug Kass said:
			
		

> I am substantially raising my calculation of the S&P's 500 fair market value from 1360 to 1485.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

Thought i would update that US China index comparison...

I know how Pro China Notting is....thought he would appreciate it....

CanOz


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P 500*



CanOz said:


> I know how Pro China Notting is....thought he would appreciate it....
> CanOz




Appreciated.:blover:

If only the trends can continue!!


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



			
				CITI said:
			
		

> This Is What The World's Most Important Commodities Will Do In 2012 And 2013






http://www.businessinsider.com/citi...12-and-2013-but-may-fall-sharply-thereafter-1


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

CME intros Options Open Interest SPX, E's, mini nas  and mini dow

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/options-open-interest/main.html


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

has short bonds become the trade du jour?


> "...we may very well be in May of 1987..."



http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089068&play=1



> The Last Time Wall Street Strategists Felt This Way, Stocks Surged Like Crazy




http://www.businessinsider.com/char...tton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame


----------



## joea

*Re: S&P 500*

I thought I would post this here. From RTT.

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/...federal-reserve-owns-the-stock-market-2012-05

joea


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

The core problems with JPMorgan's failed trades
By David Henry and Carrick Mollenkamp

Mon May 14, 2012 1:29am EDT


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/us-jpmorgan-trades-idUSBRE84D04X20120514

excerpted:



> COSTS MOUNTING
> 
> The effects of JPMorgan's stumble are still being tallied.
> 
> Though the bank can easily absorb a loss of $2 billion or more, its credit rating was cut on Friday by Fitch Ratings and its reputation for avoiding problems was dented. Dimon's calls to ease pending regulations have lost credibility. After all, the regulations are supposed to prevent banks from taking big risks of this kind with their balance sheets. On Friday, the bank's shares plunged more than 9 percent, wiping about $15 billion off its market value.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P 500*

I was incredibly lucky with the banking stock MS, i had been short of it and it had nearly got stopped out but just missed by a few ticks. Then this JPM thing hit my little -250 shares is doing well for some nice grogg money for the month!:drink:

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



CanOz said:


> I was incredibly lucky with the banking stock MS, i had been short of it and it had nearly got stopped out but just missed by a few ticks. Then this JPM thing hit my little -250 shares is doing well for some nice grogg money for the month!:drink:
> 
> CanOz




nice, Can..........and a few US banks looking like rebound value after this current downleg


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



> Exports of goods have remained strong,........




    May 14, 2012, 8:32 AM

Vital Signs: Exports Remain Strong
By Josh Mitchell 

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/05/14/vital-signs-exports-remain-strong/?mod=wsj_share_twitter


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



> JPMorgan Said to Weigh Bonus Clawbacks After Loss



By Laura Marcinek, Donal Griffin and Dawn Kopecki - May 15, 2012 12:17 PM ET 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/jpmorgan-said-to-weigh-bonus-clawbacks-after-loss.html






grin, baby grin.....


----------



## Demiurgo

*Re: S&P Analysis*

This a possible, NOT SURE, reversal zone, time to keep an eye on the chart.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

http://sentimentrader.com/blog/archives/151

Downside Pressure Nears Decade High
Posted on May 16, 2012


> One of the indicators we track is Down Pressure.  It’s currently flirting with its most extreme levels of the past decade.
> 
> The indicator looks at the component stocks of the S&P 500 and computes how many points gained/lost were lost, and also how much of the volume flowing into up/down issues went into down issues.
> 
> Over the past 10 days, the average of those two figures is 73%, meaning about 73% of the points gained or lost in the component stocks were lost, and about 73% of the volume flowed into issues down on the day.












> There have been four other days that match or exceed this reading – 7/22/02, 10/9/08, 7/2/10 and 8/4/11.  They were each within days of vicious market bounces.


----------



## StumpyPhantom

*Re: S&P 500*

Interesting Perspective!  Thanks for the link to the site.

I'm assuming when it says that after each such point - and there were 4 - in the last decade, the market viciously bounced UP (and not down). 

What's much more striking about this "Down Pressure" point though is the fact that the other such points (except the one 2010) were preceded by huge falls in the market, retracing significant percentages of the rise up to that point.

So if this is similar to the 2010 point, then expect the floor to be about another 5% away and then onwards and upward from there.

Otherwise, this time it just could be different and we're going all the way back to the March 2009 lows and more.

WHICH ONE IS IT?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



StumpyPhantom said:


> Interesting Perspective!  Thanks for the link to the site.
> 
> I'm assuming when it says that after each such point - and there were 4 - in the last decade, the market viciously bounced UP (and not down).
> 
> 
> 
> WHICH ONE IS IT?




to shed some light on your question, try this article:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...date-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

sample


----------



## StumpyPhantom

*Re: S&P 500*

Thanks Joules, very interesting.

Over the last 4 years, if I had a dollar for everytime I read/heard somebody say there was a lot of "cash on the sidelines", I would - well - have a lot of cash on the sidelines.

That line's usually sprouted by those who are trying to get that cash OFF the sidelines.  But the reason it's sitting on the sidelines is that it's SMART.  There isn't any March 2009 rally in the offing.  Realistically, there isn't one until a number of planets (US housing/unemployment, Euro and Chinese growth) align.  And that ain't going to be happening anytime soon.

Now all we need is the black swan, in the form of Israeli fighter/bombers to fly into Iranian airspace looking for their nuclear weapons.  The Israelis are cold and calculating enough to do it now so that our international attention is diverted...


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

time for some global blah blah



> MarketDelta ‏@marketdelta
> 
> Most stocks in the world are now below their 50-day price averages


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

and



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the S&P 1500 ($SPSUPX) below zero for the first time since November.






> HunterKillerSub ‏@HunterKillerSub
> 
> $SPX Percent of Components over 200 Day MAs dropping too way fast http://twitpic.com/9m8eot this is alarming -- White House should see this


----------



## StumpyPhantom

*Re: S&P 500*



StumpyPhantom said:


> Now all we need is the black swan, in the form of Israeli fighter/bombers to fly into Iranian airspace looking for their nuclear weapons.  The Israelis are cold and calculating enough to do it now so that our international attention is diverted...




Here it comes...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

I was only speculating at this last night but...

*"Experts say that within a few months, much of Iran's nuclear program will have been moved deep underground beneath the Fordow mountain, making a successful military strike much more difficult."*

This will happen during the current downdraft in the market, so expect a 10%-15% value add from a bomb strike.  The surrounding retaliation into Israel will last 6 weeks, and the Americans BUT FOR the November Presidential elections, would be in there boots and all.

They're probably already helping to plan the strike...


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

broad brush-stroke idea

see the history of the crossing of the 12 day sma

do we hang onto a 3rd attempt ?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

we're now sitting firmly on top of the 12 sma on the spx and no real sign that there's reason to be/get long.....maybe a whip-up to mid 1330's for a hook sell......and this pic tells the story.....this is not QCOM in the midst of a tech revolution, this is likely  a sad face of a sneezing bull cycle.....buuuurrrrrrtt, the bigger the call the bigger the fool :

nails the high of the day at the open, gets stagged, closes at the low......auspicious eek


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

those should read the 12 *monthly* sma ......... :screwy:


----------



## robertgordon

*Re: S&P 500*

Long term and Intermediate Time Cycles moving into directional alignment point towards A seasonal Low on the SP500 between the 22nd - 24th May 2012 . Calculating potential price points is a little bit more complex but as we approach this two day window we will be in a better position to more accurately gauge a support level . 1280 presents itself as an important area and here are a frew reasons why . October 4th 2011 low 1073 square root = 32.75 + 3 squares = 1278 ( 3 squares up from low ) . March 27th 2012 high 1424 square root = 37.73 - 2 squares = 1277 ( 2 squares down from low ) . Price is trading below the 45 degree angle from October 4th 2011 Low  and a 1x4 angle projected May 2nd May 2011 high 1376 will intersect 1279 between the 22nd - 24th May which could also provide additional technical evidence . By examining past movents we can see that the downswing from October 27th 2011 - Nov 25th 2011 point measured 137 points . Projecting 137 points below the March 27th 1424 level equals 1288 zone . 
1282 is five revolutions ( 360 degrees ) above 666 March Low 2009 and also on the same longitudal degree . 1279 is 180 degrees anglo or opposite 1073 Oct 4th 2011 Low 
1277 price is one full revolution down and on the same longitudal degree as 1424 High on the 27th March 2012 . so examing the evidence the area between 1277 - 1280 could turn out to be quite an important support zone . if price action consolidates around this zone this could confirm 22 - 24th May as Seasonal Low point .

thanks


----------



## skc

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> we're now sitting firmly on top of the 12 sma on the spx and no real sign that there's reason to be/get long.....maybe a whip-up to mid 1330's for a hook sell......and this pic tells the story.....this is not QCOM in the midst of a tech revolution, this is likely  a sad face of a sneezing bull cycle.....buuuurrrrrrtt, the bigger the call the bigger the fool :
> 
> nails the high of the day at the open, gets stagged, closes at the low......auspicious eek




Lol. Nice chart. where's the Like button?


----------



## robertgordon

*Re: S&P 500*

FTSE index : Fri 18th May may come in as Seasonal Low or 21st May 2012 . 
Will endeavour to confirm a price level tomorrow . thnx


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Extreme Selling pressure has the bulls against the ropes and Tom Malone issuing a TTT Buy Signal $study 

http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/05/ex...nwebsite-c&utm_medium=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-m




> This is the 5th time in 50 years that the Up Issues Ratio has been this oversold on a 5-, 10- and 21-day moving average basis while the S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average.  There was some short-term weakness after several of them, but all of them were positive over the next 3-6 months.  The dates were 7/28/75, 10/20/78, 3/7/80 and 12/11/80.
> Besides today, there have been 17 days since 1960 that the Stock/Bond Ratio has exceeded -2.2 while the S&P was above its 200-day average.  All 17 dates showed a positive return over the next 30 days, averaging +3.5%.  The maximum loss over the next 30 days averaged -1.7% compared to a maximum gain that averaged +6.0%.
> In the past 20 years, there have been 15 days when the 5- and 10-day Total Put/Call Ratio were this extreme.  Over the next 30 days, the S&P 500 was positive after all 15 dates, averaging +5.9%.  The maximum loss averaged -1.7% while the maximum gain averaged +6.5%.  They all occurred in the past 5 years, and were scattered among four distinct time periods (April 2007, September 2007, March 2008 and September 2011).
> The number of stock trading above their 40 day moving average has dropped from 87% to below 17%.  That is a 70% point drop in just 13 days.  That extreme overselling is almost always rewarded to the upside. 3/2009, 6/2010, 8/2011 even if temporary.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Stock Returns Around Memorial Day
May 21, 2012

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/6364/calendar-effects/stock-returns-around-memorial-day/



> The following chart shows the S&P 500 Index average daily returns from.........


----------



## baby_swallow

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Here's the monthly chart. May is a prominent red bar.
The market is right on track to repair completely this low volume 
up move since December 2011 to 1250 level. 

My guess is if the market breaks 1250 and test 1200, there will be
another quantitative easing announcements. If not, the market will
drift down to test 1100 and 1050 then it will go sideways in trading 
range for years.


----------



## joea

*Re: S&P Analysis*

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/...acts-davy-crockett-wouldnt-care-about-2012-06

joea


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

exactly what is the average man on the street thinking?


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P 500*



Joules MM1 said:


> exactly what is the average man on the street thinking?





At least I didn't invest in property?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

*Fed more upbeat on economy in Beige Book*
By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON | Wed Jun 6, 2012 7:59pm EDT


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...ource=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943
excerpt


> "Overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace," the central bank said on Wednesday in its latest "Beige Book" summary of business activity covering a period between early April and late May.




*The Fed Beige Book Is Out, And It's A Relief*
Joe Weisenthal | Jun. 6, 2012, 2:01 PM



http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-beige-book-out-2012-6


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

*U.S. debt load falling at fastest pace since 1950s*
By Rex Nutting

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-debt-load-falling-fastest-040045522.html



> since the recession ended in June 2009, total U.S. debt has risen at the slowest pace since they began keeping records in the early 1950s. While Washington has taken on a lot of debt since then, the private sector has paid off, written off or dumped on the government almost as much.
> 
> As a share of the economy, debt has plunged as a consequence of rapid deleveraging by families, banks, nonfinancial businesses, and state and local governments. The ratio of total debt to gross domestic product has fallen from 3.73 times GDP to 3.36 times.






> Cecchetti and his co-authors found that growth can be impaired once nonfinancial corporate debt hits about 90% of GDP, or when household debts hit 85% of GDP, or when public debts hit about 85%.
> 
> In the U.S., household debt has now fallen to 84% of GDP from a peak of 98%. Nonfinancial corporate debt has fallen to 77% from a peak of 83%. Financial sector debt has plunged from 123% of GDP to 89%. Public debt has risen to 89% from 56%.


----------



## Boggo

*Re: S&P 500*

Interesting summary of the S&P500 by Cramer based on Carolyn Boroden's analysis (Carolyn was a student of Robert Miner).

http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/publi...-Jim-Cramer-Has-the-stock-market-bottomed.cfm


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



Boggo said:


> Interesting summary of the S&P500 by Cramer based on Carolyn Boroden's analysis (Carolyn was a student of Robert Miner).
> 
> http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/publi...-Jim-Cramer-Has-the-stock-market-bottomed.cfm




used to use that multi tier technique a lot.... they'll become standard fodder techniques du jour soon enough thanks to several plugs by Cramer over the last few weeks....they require high liquidity instruments to work gold works well with them as long as it's in the confines of the one larger move....for example, 1.27 ratios as an inverted measure works well with 1:1 ratio in simple abc moves within a larger retrace where the whole retrace is a 78.6 (square 61.8)..... once there's multiple measures in a tight zone i've found that watching pricing action in lower time frames tells if the res/sup was going to get broken or would require a larger pull back before a second attempt.....at the second attempt if the zone was to be broken by just a fraction (fake) then that left the door open to continuation price pulls back a third time and then the group builds and carries price through the res/sup level and gathers energy........

very useful even tho the trader should already be aware of the likely moves ahead, these measures should fit the action of trend and consolidation, as in, theyre like part of the routine of thrust and refrain, of moving to resistance and chopping through the wood......

i think theyre worth the look for a lot of traders who are limited for time as they are directly linked to active price.......well, they beat any indicator......the challenge is to keep the context correct and not fall into a trap of thinking they'll tell the whole story of movment and it's easy to be distracted by them, they can become a crutch......


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

June 15, 2012, 10:02 a.m. EDT
*Consumer sentiment lowest since December*

By Ruth Mantell



> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary June reading of 74.1 -- the lowest level since December -- from 79.3 in May, according to Friday reports. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a June reading of 77.8, with weak jobs data and stock-market volatility more than offsetting lower gas prices. The sentiment gauge, which covers how consumers view their personal finances as well as business and buying conditions, averaged about 87 in the year before the most recent recession. Economists watch sentiment data to get a feel for the direction of consumer spending.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

this should be fun escapade.....where have we seen this before.....


> RT @BreakingNews: Russian ship carrying armed Russian troops is on its way to Syria to guard Russian assets, US mil officials tell @NBCNews


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Hamzei Put/call view ($ weighted)




explanation

http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/Following-the-Big-Players-Using-Dollar-Weighted-VIX-Put-Call/ba-p/2907

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

twitter


> Rennie Yang ‏@MarketTells
> 
> NYSE TICK low -768, highest low since January $$


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> Hamzei Put/call view ($ weighted)
> 
> View attachment 47451
> 
> 
> explanation
> 
> http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/Following-the-Big-Players-Using-Dollar-Weighted-VIX-Put-Call/ba-p/2907
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> twitter




Joules - tks for posting this.
Do you use a lot of Hamzei's stuff? I've been curious about his work. I've followed
him on Twitter for a while (wish he wouldn't tweet out his favourite youtube songs during mkt hours though LOL)
& what's your Twitter name (is that the right terminology ? )? PM if you prefer.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Joules - tks for posting this.
> Do you use a lot of Hamzei's stuff? I've been curious about his work. I've followed
> him on Twitter for a while (wish he wouldn't tweet out his favourite youtube songs during mkt hours though LOL)
> & what's your Twitter name (is that the right terminology ? )? PM if you prefer.




oh and "one more ping, Ramius!" :1zhelp:  

lulz

yes, follow on twittness monster and review the occasional webinar......he's got a few prop indicia that give him a good heads up and he usually plays them on news annocs and seems to be on the right side 90% of the time.....i am keen to trial his $ put/call when it's finished the beta testing

joulesmm1


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> yes, follow on twittness monster




But i really like it when he tweets out this sort of thing (about 4 mins ago, 2334):


> BUY Programs detected at NYSE



And the ES just sits there and can't go up any more ... its almost like cheating


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> ... its almost like cheating









the calls got killed but no genuine lift in puts......the caution should be on the downside 



> tomandprisha ‏@tomandprisha
> 
> TTT BUY SIGNAL HIT at 1318 ESU12 all is well TTT Buy signal hit
> Retweeted by redliontrader


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

also, US overnights are up 3 points spx.....unless that's a furffy i think we'll see a pos bias into friday but not anything rip roaring.......who'll want to hold over the weekend is the main question.......smells like a teen topping process


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

still in the t process........todays move firms an inverted h/s on spx closing bar above 1316 upwards slanting req'd......a few insto eyes be thinking that'd be bullish  and they'd make it so........


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

they like him they dont like him, theyre happy theyre not happy.....err....



> The Difference Between Obama's First Term And Bush's First Term...Chart




http://www.businessinsider.com/obamas-first-term-and-bushs-first-term-2012-6#ixzz1yxFCB0Cn



> As you can see, under Obama, private employment snapped back much better than it did during Bush's first year.
> State and local government employment, however, fell much harder under Obama than it did under Bush.
> This is of course exactly the opposite of the big government socialist stereotype that the Obama economy is portrayed as








> Bad News For Obama: Confidence In The Economy Is Plunging




http://www.businessinsider.com/econ...utton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics



> Gallup's economic confidence has plummeted for the fourth straight week. The index now stands its lowest point since January, when high gas prices rocked Americans' confidence in the economy.





....nice piccies tho


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

*The Winners Curse: Too Big to Succeed?*

Robert D. Arnott

Research Affiliates, LLC

Lillian Jing Wu

University of California, Los Angeles - Anderson School of Business

June 20, 2012



> Abstract:
> Much ink has been spilled on the perils of allowing some companies to become “too big to fail.” This assumes that governments, hence taxpayers, must foot the bill when these Top Dogs become seriously ill, while reinforcing a view that the Top Dogs, whose failure might do systemic damage, should be heavily regulated to mitigate the damage that they might cause. The flip side of this view receives scant attention: companies can become “too big to succeed.”
> 
> Indeed, the “too big to fail” ethos may create headwinds for these self-same companies that can impede their continuing success. When you are #1, you have a bright bull’s-eye painted on your back. Governments and pundits are gunning for you. Competitors and resentful customers are gunning for you. Indeed, in a world of fierce competition and serial witch hunts in the halls of government, that target is probably painted on your front and sides too. In a world that generally roots for the underdog, hardly anyone outside of your own enterprise is cheering for you to rise from world-beating success to still-loftier success.
> 
> For investors, Top Dog status ”” the #1 company, by market capitalization, in each sector or market ”” is dismayingly unattractive. We find a statistically significant tendency for top companies in each sector to underperform both the overall sector and the stock market as a whole. In an earlier U.S.-only study, we found that 59% of these Top Dogs underperformed their own sector in the next year, and two-thirds lagged their sector over the next decade. We found a daunting magnitude of average underperformance, averaging between 300 and 400 bps per year, over the next 1 to 10 years.
> 
> In this study, we have broadened the test to examine whether the “Top Dog” phenomenon is prevalent elsewhere. We find the same phenomenon in each and every market, with no exceptions. Indeed, outside the United States, the Sector Top Dogs generally underperform their own sector even more relentlessly than in the United States!
> 
> It would appear that our Top Dogs, the most beloved and winningest companies in each sector or country, are typically punished ”” often severely ”” in subsequent market action.




http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2088515


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



> Roger Waters - The Wall Live HD - Part 1: youtu.be/eTHYvprDuaE via @youtube




:cussing:


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> :cussing:




lulz......

something something, cup of tea....... 

something something, did you figure that one out all by yourself

 Fari


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

thus far the H/S pattern continues to play out......nice.......i'm finding ti hard to short but very easy to ride long...suspect this'll keep up for a few days


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> lulz......
> 
> something something, cup of tea.......
> 
> something something, did you figure that one out all by yourself
> 
> Fari



.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> thus far the H/S pattern continues to play out......nice.......i'm finding ti hard to short but very easy to ride long...suspect this'll keep up for a few days




Yep. Up has been a hot knife through butter so far this morning.

Positive reactions to the European tape bombs yesterday carrying on today.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

ETF comparison tool

http://etfdb.com/compare/


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Anyone taking a holiday?

CME:



More details & for different products:
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&r...sg=AFQjCNH5KhVf8gaLKuFndeOX3Ca4JSA4gA&cad=rja

NYSE closed July 4 (Duh...)


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

twitness


> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> More AAII bears than bulls for 8 straight weeks. That's the longest string since March 2009 (!)




added to gold short.....subs going down admiral.....

reminds me.....something something, one more ping, Vasilliev


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*

ObamaCare:



> Supreme Court upholds Healthcare Mandate




CanOz


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



CanOz said:


> ObamaCare:
> 
> 
> 
> CanOz




Tks Can.

The reporting was a dog's breakfast.
All over the place.
Plenty don't seem to understand what dissenting opinion is and reported these as the actual decision (maybe talking their book though, who knows).

Pain's me to type this but
Zero Hedge were spot on correct and fastest with their headline (on my Twitter feed).

Grrrr ... Acknowledging ZH ... goes against one of my most deeply held biases.
Lucky I have plenty of others to fall back on 

...

Well, thats sorted. 
Can we now just get back to European Armageddon/No, everything's fine/Armageddon/No, everything's fine/Armageddon/No, everything's fine/Armageddon/No, everything's fine/ ...?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> thus far the H/S pattern continues to play out......nice.......i'm finding ti hard to short but very easy to ride long...suspect this'll keep up for a few days




tricky bidders held off till the last moment near the lowest point......added to longs spx and riding the thin-bladed horse.....


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

while we are in quiet mode awaiting juggernaut hsi to open let's have a gander at today contrarian pic of the day



 2 out of 3 is ok..... ??


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Well Done Joules, 3 out of 3 for me....2 of my all time favorite Economists and girls in Bikinis!!!


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> tricky bidders held off till the last moment near the lowest point......added to longs spx and riding the thin-bladed horse.....




one encouraging view was the SML which remained in a bullish mode relative to the rest of the majors so this tended to back the idea of the inverse HS on the SPX.......

also, the DJIND was at a deeper reacher than the SPX ......in toto, the lesser reach downside the beta stocks, like the SML, the more likely that a swing is in the making and a prompt to play against the weak presentation
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=sml&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=3%2F4%2F2011&freq=6&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=12&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=4&x=33&y=13&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

and a nice postscript look by Hamzei Analytics

http://a.yfrog.com/img532/2505/bkeg.png


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

understatement? 


> Breadth showing favor to the bulls: $study
> June 29, 2012
> By redliontrader



http://www.redliontrader.com/40-dma...dy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*



Europe Provides a Nice Rally. Meanwhile, In the Real Economy …

by Sean Brodrick on June 29, 2012

excerpt


> If you’re a regular reader, you know that I follow Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index.  I like it because it compares actual economic data to analyst’s expectations. And what Citigroups ESI is showing is that actual economic data is really disappointing, all over the world …


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

head and shoulders looks secure enough and validated with momo.......



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> Now only 2 of 10 SPDRs on a P&F sell as $XLE & $XLI reversed to a buy. All 10 were up for June, but only 3 were up for the qtr.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> The NYSE all-issue cumulative a-d line closed at an all-time high today. But the common stock a-d line is well shy of its own new high.




*Worst Volume In A Decade As Stocks Eke Out Small Gain*
Tyler Durden on 07/02/2012 16:27 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/worst-volume-decade-stocks-eke-out-small-gain


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

if playing this fridays NFP or want to get a profile on ISM's etc this video is worth the time......skip the first 10 mins on euro and go to the charts......Shraf Laidi via HAmzei analytics.....it's a cheerful look.....

nice comparisons between the services now and 07/08 

http://eduwebs.hamzeianalytics.com/GC_AL_FH_070212.wmv


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

*
The bulls are a bunch of scaredy cats*
July 11, 2012, 12:08 PM

excerpt



> On Monday I’d asked you guys to answer my poll question of who’s more scared, the bulls or the bears. The results were surprising to me in how overwhelming in one direction they were ”” The bulls are more scared. I had 70 responses and it was 61 Bulls, 9 Bears. The way to think about this “Who’s more scared” poll is that it generally works as a great contrarian indicator when it’s this far skewed to one side.




http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/07/11/the-bulls-are-a-bunch-of-scaredy-cats/


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Hamzei on fire tonight. Been good. 
Past my bedtime now. :sleeping:


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

*On The Verge Of The "Ultimate Death Cross"*07/16/2012 09:02 -0400







http://www.zerohedge.com/news/verge-ultimate-death-cross


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

*THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE WORLD* 	Jul. 13, 2012, 7:19 AM

some rippers in here.......

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-important-charts-in-the-world-2012-7?op=1


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

I think I've just read the perfect tweet re the S&P500/US equity mkts in general, went something like this:



> The market is ignoring bad news, which is positive.
> But the news has been truly terrible, which is negative.




Yeah. 
EG. last night's retail sales figs in the US ... not just in isolation but the past 3 numbers now ... awful ... 
And yet here we are at 1350-ish ... 

Then there is this to consider:


> Short sales on the New York Stock Exchange have climbed above last September's peak, a level that preceded a five-month rally and heralded losses for bears.
> 
> Shares borrowed and sold reached 5.35 percent of stock available for trading last month, according to data compiled by NYSE Euronext. (NYX) That eclipses 5.28 percent on Sept. 15, when bearish bets peaked last year and the 25 most-shorted companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) began a 21 percent advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...p-2011-peak-as-september-bets-lost-21-1-.html

Bernanke testifying this morning.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> I think I've just read the perfect tweet re the S&P500/US equity mkts in general, went something like this:
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah.
> EG. last night's retail sales figs in the US ... not just in isolation but the past 3 numbers now ... awful ...
> And yet here we are at 1350-ish ...
> 
> Then there is this to consider:
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...p-2011-peak-as-september-bets-lost-21-1-.html
> 
> Bernanke testifying this morning.




T, are you referring to the Soros theory of.......gasp  ........a manufactured uptrend? 

an uptrend made of covering, who'd have thunk it


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> T, are you referring to the Soros theory of.......gasp  ........a manufactured uptrend?



No.

I'm more in the camp of what you refer to here:


Joules MM1 said:


> an uptrend made of covering,



The Bloomberg article shows there is plenty of this to be done.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

While I'm in the mood to repeat some Twitter comments; this one adapted slightly:


> How not to add value on ASF/to your trading: repeat same tired sarcastic comments about Fed and government; argue with others; act partisan


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

enjoy, T

video: mitt's time machine

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/07/...-of-a-time-machine-ever/#.UAYBybr90tQ.twitter


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Tuesday, July 17, 2012
*More flight of capital out of the Eurozone* 

http://soberlook.com/2012/07/more-flight-of-capital-out-of-eurozone.html

excerpt


> The chart below is an attempt to subtract out the Fed Liquidity Facility from the non-Eurozone deposit balances.....There is no question ... that the increase is driven by either Switzerland or Denmark (or both) defending the currency peg, buying euros and depositing them at the ECB. And the sellers of those euros are Eurozone's citizens trying to convert their money into other currencies.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

You're welcome.

Breadth doing OK too:


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Been a good rally.
Now up near the top end of the recent range and in the region of the break down level from back in May.
Europe quiet. 
VIX reflecting all this.
But, summer time and volumes down. It can move, and be moved.
Staying nimble and responsive to inputs (opinions don't pay the bills) paying off (as always).

Thoughts from here?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



> Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> The 100 S&P 500 stocks that pay no dividend are down 1.3% MTD. The 100 highest yielders are up 1.02% MTD. $$




we're in distribution mode and i think that twitt above goes in favour of that idea.....buying "safety"


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*

There are some warnings and some rotation to safe havens...like staples, utilities etc..

CanOz


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Tks Gents


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Tks Gents




ya think the Hamzei is tad harsh on the doug ?




actually, he's wrong about the call and the dougy has made some good calls


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> ya think the Hamzei is tad harsh on the doug ?




Is that Doug Kass?

I don't follow nor read Kass so I can't really comment.

Sounds pretty harsh though ....


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> ya think the Hamzei is tad harsh on the doug ?
> 
> View attachment 47994
> 
> 
> actually, he's wrong about the call and the dougy has made some good calls




Yeah I haven't read any of his stuff for a long time but I used to. They were mostly pretty sound and timely calls.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I haven't read any of his stuff for a long time but I used to. They were mostly pretty sound and timely calls.




Who is Dougy?


----------



## Trembling Hand

*Re: S&P Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Who is Dougy?




Runs a dedicated short fund. Does stuff for thestreet.com

http://www.thestreet.com/author/1358076/DougKass/all.html


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

a wind-up or some bullish news for the region?

Exclusive: *Kim to reform North Korean economy after purge: source*



By Benjamin Kang Lim

BEIJING | Fri Jul 20, 2012 7:14am EDT

excerpt



> (Reuters) - Impoverished North Korea is gearing up to experiment with agricultural and economic reforms after young leader Kim Jong-un and his powerful uncle purged the country's top general for opposing change, a source with ties to both Pyongyang and Beijing said.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Not got much to add this morning. 
OpEx day.

1361 - 69 initial idea, nearly at 1361 as typing. 

Here we go ...


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Its Friday night ... looks like everyone is out binge dr... sry enjoying themselves reponsibly.
Anyways, Euro got another caning, down as low 1.2145-ish.
All the while ES held at 1361.50 (see chart) - low of 1361.25

Enjoy Friday night.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> enjoying themselves *reponsibly.*
> .



:
had a tot or two yourself, i see


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> :
> had a tot or two yourself, i see




bugger  

No, nothing to blame but myself


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> All the while ES held at 1361.50 (see chart) - low of 1361.25




inverted h/s posted earlier is on course.......a break of the lower channel (currently 1330) would put a whole different spin on the next 6 months i think.....things look good except for the SML which is not playing ball....


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

BTW - Joules and CanOz - tks again for the thoughtful feedback re distribution and topping (posts #161 & #162), nicely done.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> BTW - Joules and CanOz - tks again for the thoughtful feedback re distribution and topping (posts #161 & #162), nicely done.




you mean......thoughtful and constructive convo in a thread? wot.......how dare we be so brazen.....

something something .....one more ping Ramius.......


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Euro back down, ES stop hunting - 1360.75 low - bit of a half-hearted sell effort so far

Enuff of the commentary - enjoy Friday

Drink reponsibly (quite hard to deliberately misspell that when u want to


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Dax and CL were taking a pisseling before...trend day on the Dax. 


No worries Timmy....is the TF still leading the ES?

CanOz


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



CanOz said:


> .is the TF still leading the ES?
> 
> CanOz



 it has been slightly weaker

1360.50 low now ........ again with the half-heart .........


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Egan-Jones cuts Spain, again. To cc+ (WTF?)

AKA Shooting fish in a barrel


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Timmy said:


> Egan-Jones cuts Spain again to cc+ (WTF?)
> 
> AKA Shooting fish in a barrel




This change of trend, however significant will be labeled 'reaction to Spain's bond rates'. Neverind that things were tidied up well before the price, then the news broke....

Spain is getting expensive, and risky...

Or is that, risky and expensive???

Nite nite!

CanOz


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Having a go at the low again


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

*No one believes in this market*

July 20, 2012 - 3:20pm

http://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2012/07/no-one-believes-market-marketwatch-article

excerpts


> The total put-call ratio is also interesting. This powerful indicator gave a strong buy signal when SPX was at 1,340; that signal has a 100-point target, so we are looking for SPX to rally to at least 1,440, based on that. However, there is more to this ratio. It is relatively rare to see the 21-day moving average of the Total ratio above 0.90. When it’s that high, there is heavy put buying (i.e., a lot of people are bearish). That was certainly the case in early June when the 21-day moving average of the ratio reached 1.05. But now, even after SPX has rallied 100 points, the 21-day moving average is still as high as 0.94. That is very unusual, and it certainly supports my view that there are a lot of pessimistic people remaining.






> Another interesting fact about volatility surrounds the desire for protection via the purchase of volatility futures, calls, ETNs, and ETFs. There is a voracious appetite for these products


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Rolling over again....The Russel is in bad shape, perhaps a bounce is due.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Hmm Twitter down?


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Yep




No matter - lunchtime ...


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*



CanOz said:


> Rolling over again....The Russel is in bad shape, perhaps a bounce is due.




ps. Nicely done (again) CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

*Unemployment in Spain climbs to all-time high in second quarter to 24.6%*
07/27/2012 04:55:34 AM

:headshake

:flush:




> Still, second-quarter data also provides glimmers of hope that Spain’s unemployment rate may be close to peaking. Job losses in the quarter were a meager 15,900, compared with 870,000 in the previous three quarters, and the number of foreign unemployed fell by 59,700 from the first quarter.




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp...ts-fresh-all-time-high-2012-07-27?siteid=bnbh


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

*Spain discussed $366 billion bailout with Germany:*


By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS | Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:43am EDT

excerpt


> Spain has for the first time conceded it might need a full EU/IMF bailout worth 300 billion euros ($366 billion) if its borrowing costs remain unsustainably high, a euro zone official said.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/us-eurozone-spain-idUSBRE86Q0JS20120727


----------



## notting

*Re: S&P 500*

1.5% US 2qtr growth, slightly positive.  But Starbucks aint selling too many warm milkshakes


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

selling climaxes

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/trading_floor_blog.aspx?single=true&blogid=112179

excerpt


> Now back to what happened last week, we had 107 selling climaxes. As you can see below, over the past year, surges over 100 have been rather bullish in the near term. Then considering the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is actually increasing (remember, we tend to see clusters of these near bottoms),......


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

AEP reporting on China preparing fiscal boost:







> *China prepares vast stimulus as slump threatens Asia
> China has ditched its reform strategy and prepared a vast stimulus package as the country’s soft-landing turns uncomfortably hard, with recession warnings flashing across East Asia. *
> 
> China’s president, Hu Jintao, has told officials to brace for economic shocks from abroad, calling for “fiscal and monetary support and efforts to expand domestic demand”.
> The city of Changsha has seized the moment, unveiling plans to spend $130bn (£82bn) on roads, satellite towns, and an industrial park – almost 150pc of its GDP.
> Guizhou trumped this today, touting an eye-watering investment package of $470bn on transport, energy, infrastructure and eco-tourism over 10 years.
> The Politburo has clearly decided to protect jobs whatever the other risks, steering the yuan down 1.3pc against the dollar this year to protect the wafer-thin margins of exporters.
> Nomura said Beijing is preparing a 17pc VAT rebate on exports by Chinese steelmakers to divert excess output abroad, exporting China's "over-capacity crisis" to the rest of the world.




Link for the entire article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...es-vast-stimulus-as-slump-threatens-Asia.html


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis - ES*

By Danny Riley (MrTopStep - CME)

excerpt


> According to most Fed surveys, nearly 90% of market participants believe the European Central Bank will purchase more sovereign debt and 80% said they expect the Federal Reserve will undertake additional quantitative easing. This is a big jump from June and brings us back to October of 2010, when over 90% of the traders polled thought the Fed would do a QE2 program. Here is the catch: Most people do not think a QE will be announced today. Many people think it is coming but that the program will not start until September, while others think it won’t be until the beginning of 2013.
> The effect of the upcoming announcements has curtailed trading on the floor in most of the markets. While the commodity markets continue to be busy, the financials ”” bond, index and currency futures ”” were all very slow and the volumes showed that. At 2:00 CT the S&P only had a 8-handle range on volume of 1.4mil, that may sound like a lot but it’s not. When you subtract the 300k ESUs from Globex, only 1.1mil ESUs traded. That is well off the record 6.5mil contracts the e-mini S&P was doing just a few years ago. Part of this has to do with the public risk appetite and the other is the credit crisis. Volumes are down for a lot of reasons, but the main one is most people / traders just do not have the capital they used to.
> As we go into today’s Fed decision, we all know the government needs to do more. As the Fed tried to expand growth (GDP), they are doing it the same way they have done in the past: pile up more debt and push out paying it back. With the economy so weak and the stock market going better, one has to question the overall rationale. Dennis Gartman believes “The biggest test facing the U.S. economy is that we shall do something truly stupid: raise taxes and cut spending aggressively, doing immeasurable damage to the economy in the process.”




http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/08/de...Feed:+MTS-TOP+(MrTopStep+»+The+Opening+Print)


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Strategists Most Bearish on Equities since 1985
By Barry Ritholtz - August 1st, 2012, 6:46AM
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/strategists-most-bearish-on-equities-since-1985/

excerpt


> ...not just the Pimco boss; according to Merrill Lynch’s quant group, Wall Street’s “sell side strategists are now more bearish on equities than they were at any point in the last 27 years.” And we know as a whole, this group tends to get it wrong at key inflection points.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P Analysis*

The hated bull market

Posted in on July 31, 2012 - 4:14pm

http://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2012/07/hated-bull-market

excerpt


> The Total put-call ratio ”” which has a target of 1,440 (SPX) on its last buy signal ”” remains bullish as well. In fact, the Total ratio is considered “too pessimistic” when its 21-day moving average is above 90 (i.e., 90% of all options traded at puts), and it is still above that 90 level, even though the rally has been in progress for nearly two months. This one statistic shows just how little faith most traders ”” even hedge funds and institutions ”” have in this rally.


----------



## Timmy

*Re: S&P Analysis*

Tk U Joules

Algo action in US this morn - usual suspects doing the headless chook thing about it. 
But it turned what I thought was going to be a dull pre-FOMC morning into a nice one. (#Silver lining )

ECB tomorrow too - should be some fireworks.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: S&P Analysis*



Joules MM1 said:


> The hated bull market
> 
> Posted in on July 31, 2012 - 4:14pm
> 
> http://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2012/07/hated-bull-market
> 
> excerpt




Makes you kinda wonder...who is actually participating exactly?

Or big bull trap into October!

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500*

speaking of milkshakes... 

....the home orignator city of Mcdonalds, San Bernadino, US's 99th largest city, just filed for bankruptcy

hold the cheese, thanks


----------



## Timmy

Wed. had the FOMC.
Thurs. the ECB.
Tonight its the NFP (0830 US ET).

The party just doesn't stop. 

Heard somewhere earlier - 


> Just 16 hours until the July jobs report -- and another 14.5 years until the final revision.





ES = Plenty of opportunity.


----------



## Joules MM1

Timmy said:


> The party just doesn't stop.
> 
> Heard somewhere earlier -
> 
> 
> ES = Plenty of opportunity.




let's algo crazy?

one more slice em dice em night downtown.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> let's algo crazy?




Xackly


----------



## Timmy

Joules MM1 said:


> let's algo crazy?




I like it!


----------



## Joules MM1

*Orders Of Heavy Duty Class 8 Truck Sales Dive, And That's A Big Recession Warning Sign*
Matthew Boesler	| Aug. 6, 2012, 5:18 PM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morg...tor-us-economy-recession-2012-8#ixzz22oouifY7


excerpt


> Coe concludes with a warning on the next few truck sales numbers: "Unless truck orders break out its current 12-18k monthly range YTD within the next 2-3 months, we would have to significantly increase the probability of a double-dip in 2013."


----------



## tech/a

People like myself are just keeping our current Trucks and Heavy equipment.
We arent buying new.
Many are doing exactly the same.
Means little in my view.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Horse drawn coach sales dive. Big sign of recession. 1900

Railway stock sales fall big sign of recession. 1950

etc etc


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> People like myself are just keeping our current Trucks and Heavy equipment.
> We arent buying new.
> Many are doing exactly the same.
> Means little in my view.




Let me know if you want a few concrete trucks....there's a few thousand parked idle here.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

*Best hour to trade the S&P 500*
August 7, 2012, 9:16 AM



> Bespoke Investment Group has broken down trading patterns in the S&P 500 hour by hour since the market’s summer low on June 1
> 
> Perhaps not surprisingly, the tone for each trading day has been set by the early action.
> 
> On average the index has seen the biggest gains in the first 30 minutes of trading.  The S&P index has averaged a gain of 0.1% over that time frame  since June 1.
> 
> The second best intraday trading period has been the last hour of trading, when the index has risen an average of 0.08%.
> 
> The hours between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. and between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. have been the weakest, both averaging declines of 0.03%.
> 
> On days when the index has closed higher, it’s averaged a gain of 0.5% in the first 30 minutes, with more modest gains of 0.13% in the final hour.
> 
> On days when it’s ended lower, it’s averaged a decline of 0.35% in the early trading, but has traded flat in the final hour.
> 
> So, assuming the axiom that “dumb money” (retail investors) trade at the open while “smart money” (institutional investors) trade at the close holds true, then during the summer rally, institutional money has been buying on a little on the up days, but not selling on the down ones, Bespoke argues.



-Tom Bemis

Posted: August 7, 2012 at 10:42 am

*The Early Bird Gets the S&P 500 Worm* 



> Bespoke Investment Group has examined trading patterns in the S&P 500 index since June 1, the market’s summer low, and broken down them hour by hour. The question is, does the early bird get the worm when it comes to trading the S&P 500?






> The answer is yes. On average the index has seen the biggest gains in the first 30 minutes of trading, or an average gain of 0.1% since June 1 in early trading. The second best intraday gain, an average of 0.08%, came in the final hour of each day’s session.
> 
> Bespoke found that, on days when the index has closed higher, it averaged a gain of 0.5% in the first 30 minutes and a gain of less than 0.2% in the last hour of the session.
> 
> However, on days when the S&P 500 ended down, the average decline was about 0.3% in the early trading, while trading was flat in the final hour.
> 
> The weakest times for trading were mid morning and mid afternoon. On average, since June 1 the S&P 500 index has declined 0.03% between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. and between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., the results showed.
> 
> So one could say that Bespoke’s results suggest to traders: don’t be late, don’t quit early and go ahead a take those coffee breaks.






> However, on days when the S&P 500 ended down, the average decline was about 0.3% in the early trading, while trading was flat in the final hour.
> 
> The weakest times for trading were mid morning and mid afternoon. On average, since June 1 the S&P 500 index has declined 0.03% between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. and between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., the results showed.
> 
> So one could say that Bespoke’s results suggest to traders: don’t be late, don’t quit early and go ahead a take those coffee breaks.


----------



## Joules MM1

tweet hustle



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> AAII bulls > bears ending a 13-wk streak of bears > bulls - the longest streak since late '07 to early '08. 5-wk bull/bear ratio still o/s


----------



## CanOz

I don't know...maybe its just the macro bear in me but i think this thing is setting up for a low liquidity manipulated bull trap.


----------



## lenny

Tend to agree con oz.

Vix back on solid support & gold looks like its ready for a run also.

I've been watching the divergence between the DJIA & DJT also.


----------



## Joules MM1

conferring your point

*Meaning of weakness in Dow transports*
Transports have been lagging market for over a year
 Mark Hulbert Aug. 10, 2012, 12:02 a.m. EDT 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/meaning-of-weakness-in-dow-transports-2012-08-10



CanOz said:


> I don't know...maybe its just the macro bear in me but i think this thing is setting up for a low liquidity manipulated bull trap.




try looking further back at the SPX v DJTA......trans made a new altime high, the indecies didnt, so, whom is lagging who?

does the trans side need to always be confirming the indecies? can't the transports be in its own levels of participation without implying either way?

have you noticed no one ever mentions when the trans are neutral yet just as strong a signal......what exactly does the trans sector need to show (of itself) to confirm weakness and over what period?

in this chart, i've chosen to skew the odds in favour that the trans are _leading_ the way higher for equities by saying that the trans sector is _leading_ the way higher, so, divergence is to the upside.....the lagging is equities

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ka...&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=635&width=1045&mocktick=1


----------



## Joules MM1

i guess the main point is that the trans sector has, by orthodox interpretation, already said that equities should be much lower, so, as a trigger function even Russell Rhoads and Richard Russell agree that the divergence, or appearance of divergence, is a loose diving board to jump from......


----------



## CanOz

So exactly what then Joules, is driving the market higher? 

The SPX chart just looks strange to me. Most bull markets don't consist of of impulsive drives higher and higher. Usually bull markets are just a consistent grind higher, if you know what i mean. I'm not trying to be right or wrong here, i just think that it doesn't look typical...but then what does these days.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> So exactly what then Joules, is driving the market higher?
> 
> The SPX chart just looks strange to me. Most bull markets don't consist of of impulsive drives higher and higher. Usually bull markets are just a consistent grind higher, if you know what i mean. I'm not trying to be right or wrong here, i just think that it doesn't look typical...but then what does these days.
> 
> CanOz




it's fair to say volumes are mute at this time of the year in the us.....mutual funds monday should see buying into the open......it would also be fair to say that the distrust that resides with the retail crowd is probably going to stay that way for a long time and funds managers are lowest holdings at bear market lows and highest at bull highs so all the input and energy off the march 09 low based in value purchases + short covering is going to sag somewhere along the rout as we get closer to making the altime highs, the values are getting outside of ratios considered and fair and many mid-tier money managers dont want to risk being caught short......clearly, i dont know the reason for price rising the way it has, empirically, what i do know is that strength remains upward in presidential year and i've learned to focus my attention much closer-in, focus on inside prices rather than the daily wash and i suspect i'll need to do that for a while, too


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, its just interesting banter to me really as i hold no stake in it either way at the moment. I still feel we need a decent correction in the autumn if my rally to year hypothesis end can play out...

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1

The Charms of a Hated Rally
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Posted in on August 13, 2012 - 1:14pm

http://www.optionstrategist.com/blog/2012/08/charms-hated-rally

excerpt



> Yet option and futures trading suggested in early June that stocks would rally because investors were overly negative. Even now, this negativity persists””though not at the same extreme””which indicates the rally has at least several more months of life.
> 
> The equity-only put-call ratio””the daily sum of all puts traded on all stocks divided by the sum of the all calls traded on all stocks on the same day””is a reliable indicator.








> THE TOTAL PUT-CALL RATIO also helps investors analyze investor sentiment. The ratio's 21-day moving average rarely rises above 0.90. Mostly, far more calls trade than puts. But when puts exceeds calls, and then peaks, it sends a buy signal for stocks.
> 
> Such a buy signal was telegraphed in the second week of June””and it remains in force. In fact, it was only this week that the 21-day moving average of the total put-call ratio fell below 0.90. In other words, total put buying remains rampant despite the rally. It only now has moved out of what is considered "oversold" territory for stocks.
> 
> Everyone talks about spot VIX, recently around 16, but VIX futures tell the real story. VIX futures, compared with spot VIX, are extremely expensive, even though it is common to hear people say the VIX is so low that it indicates investors are complacent and perhaps suggests a short-term market correction is imminent.
> 
> To understand what traders think about volatility, you must examine the prices of VIX derivatives. Now, traders are paying far in excess of spot VIX levels for VIX futures that expire in coming months. For example, spot VIX is near 15, but February 2013 VIX futures are at 26. It's further evidence that this stock market rally has few believers.
> 
> Much of this VIX futures buying is a direct result of the heavy demand for VIX exchange-traded notes, primarily the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures, or VXX. Exchange-traded note managers buy VIX futures when new VXX shares are created, and then those VIX futures are rolled forward each day.
> 
> Heavy investor demand for VXX creates heavy demand for VIX futures. This, in turn, sharply boosts VIX future prices, telegraphing another contrary indicator. When fund managers decide that they need massive volatility protection for their stock portfolios, it is, by contrary analysis, bullish.
> 
> When the investing and trading public start believing in this rally, the put-call ratios will start to reverse and the term structure of the VIX futures will flatten. Only then will it be time to sell stocks. Until then, the market””hated as it may be””can continue to march upward against this tide of negativity.


----------



## Joules MM1

tweetterocity



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> Weekly Coppock for #SP500/$JNJ is o/s & bottoming. That's usually a good sign for the market.




dunnobout thiswunnbutduzzsoundgood


----------



## Timmy

Big funds still very much underweight apparently.

http://money.msn.com/business-news/...120814&ID=15447821&industry=IND_BANKING&isub=

Still, 1410-20 going to be a tough nut to crack (admittedly a consensus view)


----------



## Joules MM1

the head and shoulders target (a few posts back) has been reached in overlapping view........not a bullish signal.......if we close below 1403 cash i ssupect we'll see a few days of lower lows......i'm short right nonw


----------



## Joules MM1

on the upside, george (hoozyadaddy) soros is getting hitched to a woman half his age......


----------



## Timmy

Joules MM1 said:


> on the upside, george (hoozyadaddy) soros is getting hitched to a woman half his age......




Long pre-nups


----------



## Joules MM1

Timmy said:


> Long pre-nups




i heard that about you........:luigi::luigi::luigi: 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

some interesting things found on the way to the open......

http://forex-strategies-revealed.co...Sequential_Impressive_Signals_From_Demark.pdf

http://twitpic.com/ajd0li/full


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> some interesting things found on the way to the open......




update on that demark

http://s1-05.twitpicproxy.com/photos/full/637801667.jpg?key=1422764


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> does the trans side need to always be confirming the indecies? can't the transports be in its own levels of participation without implying either way?
> 
> have you noticed no one ever mentions when the trans are neutral yet just as strong a signal......what exactly does the trans sector need to show (of itself) to confirm weakness and over what period?




Hey Joules,

I saw you guys discussing Trans the other day, and just now while looking at some white papers I came across this old list of Richard Donchians market "rules". I thought you might find this one interesting, as the interpretation might help answer your question




i.e. similar to many strategies seen on the blogosphere to invest in SPY when QQQ is outperforming SPY.

So Richard D didn't see it as a "divergence", e.g. be worried if transports don't confirm but rather don't participate if they aren't participating.


----------



## Joules MM1

sinner said:


> Hey Joules,
> 
> I saw you guys discussing Trans the other day, and just now while looking at some white papers I came across this old list of Richard Donchians market "rules". I thought you might find this one interesting, as the interpretation might help answer your question
> 
> View attachment 48606
> 
> 
> i.e. similar to many strategies seen on the blogosphere to invest in SPY when QQQ is outperforming SPY.
> 
> So Richard D didn't see it as a "divergence", e.g. be worried if transports don't confirm but rather don't participate if they aren't participating.




thanks, sinner ...... that's the 'who is lagging who?' question i posed earlier to open thinking about how to read the divergence and is it a - or + one......seems there's been a morph of the original idea into a text book translation from most talking heads.....


----------



## sinner

Joules MM1 said:


> thanks, sinner ...... that's the 'who is lagging who?' question i posed earlier to open thinking about how to read the divergence and is it a - or + one......seems there's been a morph of the original idea into a text book translation from most talking heads.....




A recent blog I came across which is really f*** amazing for long term portfolio ideas posted this a little while back, took me a little digging to find it again as I thought you might like to see what a combination of:

* Simple linear regressions (just substitute with 200DMA if it's too confusing)
* Simple relative strength (cyclicals: Trans/whatever, non-cyclicals: Utilities/whatever)

http://timelyportfolio.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/this-is-not-investment-advice-and-will.html

looks like, going all the way back to 1920s.


----------



## Joules MM1

Peter Slaga on Thu, Aug 16, 2012 @ 06:23 PM 

*NFA's Board of Directors approves rule to enhance the customer segregated funds protection regimeNFA Customer Seg Funds*

August 16, Chicago - The Board of Directors of National Futures Association (NFA) today approved amendments to NFA Financial Requirements that will require each futures commission merchant (FCM) to provide its Designated Self-Regulatory Organization (DSRO) with view-only access via the Internet to account information for each of the FCM's customer segregated funds account(s) maintained and held at a bank or trust company. The same requirement would apply to the FCM's customer secured account(s) held for customers trading on foreign futures exchanges.

In addition, the rule states that if a bank or trust company is unable to allow the FCM to provide its DSRO with view-only full access via the Internet, the bank or trust company will not be deemed an acceptable depository to hold customer segregated and secured accounts.

"Under this rule, DSROs will be able to check any customer segregated and secured bank account balance for any FCM any time, without asking the firm or the bank, and compare those balances to the firm's daily segregation report," said NFA President Dan Roth. "This is one step in a series of initiatives the Board is working on."

NFA intends to expand this approach, once it is implemented, to receive daily reports from all depositories for customer segregated and secured accounts, including clearing FCMs. NFA plans to develop a program to compare these balances with those reported by the firms in their daily segregation reports. The system will then generate an immediate alert for any material discrepancies.

The rule was developed by the SRO Committee formed shortly after the demise of MF Global. The committee, comprised of representatives from NFA, CME Group, the InterContinental Exchange, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange and the Kansas City Board of Trade, has made several recommendations for rule changes that have already been approved by NFA's Board in May and by the CFTC in July.

"Early on in its deliberations, the committee recognized that we need to make better use of technology to monitor firms for compliance with segregation requirements," said Roth.

The newly approved requirements will now be sent to the CFTC for approval.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

speaking of which; i hear a new hedge fund to be mantled by Jon (i-dunno-where-tha-munny-iz) Corzine 

more of this:  ??


----------



## Joules MM1

*Final Earnings and Revenue Beat Rates*

Friday, August 17, 2012 at 09:58AM 

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/8/17/final-earnings-and-revenue-beat-rates.html

excerpt







> The second quarter earnings season is now completed, so below we highlight the final earnings and revenue beat rates.  Of the 2,278 companies that reported between July 9th and August 16th (Alcoa's report date through Wal-Mart's report date), 58.7% beat earnings estimates, while 48.4% beat revenue estimates.  The 58.7% earnings beat rate is the lowest reading seen since the bull market began in March 2009.  The 48.4% revenue beat rate was also the lowest reading seen since the bull market began, and it's well below the average revenue beat rate of 61.7% that we've seen since 1998


----------



## Joules MM1

Aug. 20, 2012, 4:40 p.m. EDT
Facebook bounces as Apple sets record
*Apple becomes most valuable company ever*; tech sector slips

excerpt



> Apple closed with a market cap of $623.5 billion, up from $607.5 billion on Friday, according to data from FactSet.
> 
> The previous record was held by Microsoft Corp., according to Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices, as cited by The Wall Street Journal. According to FactSet, Microsoft had a market cap of $613.3 billion in late December 1999.




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...k-at-new-low-2012-08-20?link=MW_story_popular


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Joules MM1 said:


> Aug. 20, 2012, 4:40 p.m. EDT
> Facebook bounces as Apple sets record
> *Apple becomes most valuable company ever*; tech sector slips
> 
> excerpt
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ap...k-at-new-low-2012-08-20?link=MW_story_popular




Doesn't surprise me at all.  Yesterday I was at a shopping centre at lunchtime... on a MONDAY... and the Apple store had maybe 10 or more employees on the floor assisting  approx. 60 or 70 people.  Most other stores I passed had between 0 and 3 people, with one employee serving.


----------



## Joules MM1

twitterspherics



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> Outside day closing down. Not good. Reversal following bull mkt high. Not good. $SP500 makes new hi, #DJIA doesn't. strange






> Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader
> 
> # of times $SPY hit a 52-week high then reversed to close below 3 prior closes: 12. # of times it marked a major top: 0


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> twitterspherics




If TA works that S&P chart certainly looks crappy this morning.


----------



## baby_swallow

Long term price formation not looking good....(for long only investors)


----------



## CanOz

What? The market can't go up forever on light volume


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> What? The market can't go up forever on light volume




.......distributions signals abound

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Pulse Archives

Aug. 28, 2012, 10:01 a.m. EDT
*Consumer confidence falls to nine-month low*

By Jeffry Bartash



> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low in August as Americans grew more worried about business conditions and the chances of finding a job, according to a survey. The Conference Board on Tuesday said its confidence index dropped to 60.6 from 65.4, marking the lowest level since last November. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast the index to rise slightly to 66.0. Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators, said "consumers were more apprehensive about business and employment prospects." The board's future expectations sub-index sank to 70.7 last month from 78.4, while the present-conditions index was basically unchanged at 45.8. While consumers are less hopeful about the future, however, they said they've seen little deterioration in the economy, either.


----------



## Joules MM1

interesting comment in here:


Home ”º Blog ”º The "Protection Trade”: *Will being long volatility and the market work?*
Posted in on August 27, 2012 - 4:35pm
By Lawrence G. McMillan



> For quite some time now (perhaps since last November), we have been pointing out how the voracious appetite for volatility protection has had the effect of distorting the term structure of the $VIX futures.  Recently, though, this activity has branched out in a way that is only rarely seen in the markets: in short, large institutional traders are both buying stocks and buying volatility ETNs (thus, by inference, they are buying $VIX futures).  Hedging on a large scale can distort technical indicators and other things – such as the term structure.  That is, we can’t really interpret this activity in a contrary manner.  Are these traders bullish (because they’re buying stocks) or bearish (because they’re heavily buying protection)?  In truth, it’s probably the former, but their need to buy protection also means they’re not overly bullish. _* This reminds me very much of what was happening in QQQ options at the end of the tech stock craze in 2000....*_


----------



## boofis

Ha, gotta love the games played! Institutions took it down to 95 and then supported it there lol. Perhaps a run is in order. 
What's the go with this man making a speech or some news or something stoopid tomorrow?


----------



## baby_swallow

boofis said:


> H
> What's the go with this man making a speech or some news or something stoopid tomorrow?




I think the man in Jackson A-hole (how appropriate), will pull the trigger to make Obumer look good in the coming election.


----------



## Trembling Hand

baby_swallow said:


> I think the man in Jackson A-hole (how appropriate), will pull the trigger to make Obumer look good in the coming election.




You think? There is noway you'll see him pull he's last rabbit out of the hat untill the :fan

Not with positive GDP, euroland still fluffing around etc 

IMO


----------



## Joules MM1

contrarians cover trigger ?
--------------------------------

Barron's Cover
 | SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2012 
*Tough as Teflon* 

By VITO J. RACANELLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR




http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903904904577615373858091172.html?mod=BOL_twm_ls

excerpt







> Call the stock market's swift 10% rise since the end of May a Teflon rally of sorts, because myriad worries on Wall Street -- from the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S. to Europe's financial mess to turmoil in the Mideast -- haven't stuck, much less slowed the bull's progress. Instead, stocks have marched gamely higher..........


----------



## baby_swallow

Trembling Hand said:


> You think? There is noway you'll see him pull he's last rabbit out of the hat untill the :fan




Spot on TH.....I owe you a beer...


----------



## boofis

Wth! ES needs to be poked with a broom handle to check if it's still alive.


----------



## Joules MM1

boofis said:


> Wth! ES needs to be poked with a broom handle to check if it's still alive.




holiday......have a kit kat .....futes havent moved coz dax stuck at 7g

although golds been good


----------



## boofis

Joules MM1 said:


> holiday......have a kit kat .....futes havent moved coz dax stuck at 7g
> 
> although golds been good




ahhhh "labor day", thanks for the heads up. Will trade that kitkat for a cider and have a peep at gold in the mean time. cheers


----------



## Joules MM1

with the NDX almost at an 11 year high  i was trawling to see if it was big news.... anywhere...anyone?.......but no!

instead, i found this little cherub

http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-woodford-endorses-ngdp-targeting-2012-9

*Forget Bernanke: A Paper At Jackson Hole May Have Changed The Future Of Economics*
Joe Weisenthal	| Sep. 2, 2012, 8:56 AM


----------



## Joules MM1

*CME's volume falls 40% in August*
By Lynne Marek September 05, 2012

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20120905/NEWS01/120909940/cmes-volume-falls-40-in-august

excerpt


> The CME volume declines occurred in most contract types, with a 41 percent drop in interest rate contract trading and a 58 percent decline in equity index contracts. The exception was in agricultural commodity contracts, where there was a 2 percent rise. Open outcry trading fell more than the electronic trading and was less than half the volume last year.


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> with the NDX almost at an 11 year high  i was trawling to see if it was big news.... anywhere...anyone?.......but no!
> 
> instead, i found this little cherub
> 
> http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-woodford-endorses-ngdp-targeting-2012-9
> 
> *Forget Bernanke: A Paper At Jackson Hole May Have Changed The Future Of Economics*
> Joe Weisenthal	| Sep. 2, 2012, 8:56 AM




Thanks mate, interesting POV Woodford has there


----------



## Joules MM1

Updated September 9, 2012, 7:24 p.m. ET

*U.S. to Slash Stake in AIG *

excerpts


> A dramatic wind-down of the government's investment in AIG could break one of two ways for the Obama administration. Officials could say a near-exit of one of the most controversial bailouts in American history is a big accomplishment and sign of how far financial markets have come in four years.






> The U.S. Treasury Department said it will sell $18 billion of American International Group Inc. AIG -0.67% stock, slashing its stake in the New York company by more than half and making the government a minority shareholder for the first time since the financial crisis was roaring in September 2008.




http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...2023069906372.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories


----------



## Joules MM1

*If QE3 Happens, It Will Be Different Than QE2 And QE1 In One Significant Way*
Joe Weisenthal	| Sep. 11, 2012, 3:23 PM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/if-q...2-in-one-significant-way-2012-9#ixzz26Dz6RrrY



> "The reaction function of the FOMC seems to have changed.  In my simple terms, QE has never always come with the stock market down YTD -- now, it appears we’ll receive it with S&P up 14%."
> 
> That's from a Goldman desk note send around earlier today, and it's a great point.
> 
> This chart from Doug Short shows it nicely, that all previous QEs and Twists came during periods when the market was at a low.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund With Conditions, Court Rules*

 By Karin Matussek - Sep 12, 2012 9:07 PM GMT+1000

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...bailout-fund-with-conditions-court-rules.html

----------------------------------------------------------------



> Bespoke‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> The Euro is on pace to open and close above its 200-DMA for the first time in more than a year.$$


----------



## Joules MM1

* Investors Turn Slightly More Bullish*
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 10:08AM 

http://bespokeinvest.squarespace.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/investors-turn-slightly-more-bullish.html



excerpt



> Even after the S&P 500 broke out to new bull market highs in the latest week, very few bulls have come out of the woodwork.  After dropping slightly below one-third last week, the latest bullish sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose modestly to 36.46% this week.  _*For a market trading at multi-year highs, this relatively low level of bullishness is rare*_ to say the least.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/breadth-finally-makes-a-higher-high.html

*Breadth Finally Makes a Higher High*
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 04:59PM 






> Over the last several weeks, we have noted the fact that cumulative breadth for the S&P 500 has been lagging the overall market.  In fact, for each of the higher highs that the S&P 500 made off the summer lows, cumulative breadth failed to make a higher high.  The chart below shows the updated cumulative breadth for the S&P 500 over the last 12 months.  Each of the red lines in the top chart correspond to a short term peak in the S&P 500, while the red lines in the bottom chart indicate where the cumulative A/D line was at the time of the short-term peak in the index.
> 
> Following today's rally, cumulative breadth made its first higher high since the spring.  While breadth still has a bit to go before taking out its highs from back then, the higher high is a sign that the rally is showing signs of broadening strength.


----------



## Joules MM1

bespokeinvest said:
			
		

> Even after the S&P 500 broke out to new bull market highs in the latest week, very few bulls have come out of the woodwork. After dropping slightly below one-third last week, the latest bullish sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose modestly to 36.46% this week. For a market trading at multi-year highs, this relatively low level of bullishness is rare to say the least.




SPX now at highest level since 2007 .....not that that means a lot, simply missing media goss surrounding the reach


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joules MM1 said:


> http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/breadth-finally-makes-a-higher-high.html
> 
> *Breadth Finally Makes a Higher High*
> Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 04:59PM




Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.

Will post a chart later.


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.
> 
> Will post a chart later.




 ......

oh, before you do, here's some breaking news that needs to be read
*
Russia's Vladimir Putin admits wildlife stunts are staged*

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-russia-putin-critic-idUSBRE88C17T20120913



> "OF COURSE IT WAS A SET UP"
> 
> "Everything I do in this area (wildlife conservation) should have nothing to do with politics. But for a man in my position it is very difficult," Putin said.




Putin, the bloke! .....wot a beautiful man.....wot year are we in?


----------



## tinhat

Joules MM1 there is an air of frivolity in your posts the past couple of days. Are you enjoying the market exuberance?


----------



## Joules MM1

tinhat said:


> Joules MM1 there is an air of frivolity in your posts the past couple of days. Are you enjoying the market exuberance?






i got hit by one of tech/a's trains this morning.......hopped on for the ride, although i've pared back a lot now, smells like a teen  blow-off coming.....


----------



## Joules MM1

http://philpearlman.com/2012/09/14/shrinkologicals-who-is-really-panicking/

*Shrinkologicals: Who Is Really Panicking?*

    Posted by ppearlman
    on September 14th, 2012
excerpt



> Smart people can criticize and rail against reality all day long everyday forever and do it nobly because leaders the world over HAVE made a giant mess of things. But such nobility is underperforming and you can see it in persistently punk hedge fund performance numbers.
> 
> Perhaps, the mess, after being hashed and rehashed, is in the market while price is sniffing out something more constructive.


----------



## Joules MM1

this is what happened on fed day.........blue is tiny(er) size and  red is big(ger) size...this displays book depth

pop went the weasels


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> smells like a teen  blow-off coming.....




first hints of selling into strength? sell when everyone else has to buy?

twittnessmonster:


> Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest
> 
> The intraday TIKX just hit -400 for the 2nd time this month. Two big sell programs have sent this market to flat for the day. $DIA $SPY $$


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.
> 
> Will post a chart later.




As per above. Gold bars are the 52 week highs, blue line 20 day avg of said gold bars.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Some more,
S&P 500 with NYSE ad/dec data,



Nasdaq with Nas ad/dec data strong!


----------



## Joules MM1

[video=youtube_share;ktlRWF-NwwE]http://youtu.be/ktlRWF-NwwE[/video]
*
Meet The Blogger Who May Have Just Saved The American Economy*

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-scott-sumner-2012-9#ixzz26Xb4ofeq

Joe Weisenthal	| Sep. 14, 2012, 7:18 AM

thesis, theorist or broad picture, the video is worth a watch and so is JW's write-up worth a read.....


----------



## Joules MM1

twittnull and i






> Jim Rickards‏@JamesGRickards
> 
> Here's a 20-yr chart of S&P measured in ounces of #gold. By this yardstick, the S&P tanked again Thursday.


----------



## tinhat

Are any chartists starting to think that the S&P 500 is looking a bit toppy?




I was wondering if any Elliot Wave proponents believe we may be nearing the top of Wave 5 (the third wave up) form the bottom of 2009? If so, what sort of correction might be in store? Worst case scenario I can see looking at the chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 1990s is a triple-top correction from a triple top of 2000, 2007 and 2013(?).


----------



## Joules MM1

tinhat said:


> Are any chartists starting to think that the S&P 500 is looking a bit toppy?
> 
> 
> 
> I was wondering if any Elliot Wave proponents believe we may be nearing the top of Wave 5 (the third wave up) form the bottom of 2009? If so, what sort of correction might be in store? Worst case scenario I can see looking at the chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 1990s is a triple-top correction from a triple top of 2000, 2007 and 2013(?).




the botom of wave 4 overlaps wave 1 which invalidates the count on an impulsive incline.....as a basic rule or RN's work


----------



## Joules MM1

http://stocktwits.com/message/9581251


----------



## Joules MM1

hedge eye chart of the day


----------



## Joules MM1

* The Plight of the Transports*
Friday, September 21, 2012 at 05:14PM 



> One of the more noteworthy market trends over the past couple of months has been the relative underperformance of the Dow Jones Transportation Index.  After a devastating few days that saw both FedEx (FDX) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) collapse on negative guidance, the Transports fell nearly 6% this week.  At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) only fell a few points.  Below is a chart comparing the performance of the Transports and the Dow over the last six months.  The huge divergence between the two over the last couple of weeks stands out.










> Over the last six months, the Dow (DJIA) is up 3.47%, while the Transports are down 7.90%.  While wide, the 6-month spread in performance between the two is not out of the ordinary, as shown in the chart below.  At the same time, peaks and troughs in the performance spread have not really been bullish or bearish for the future direction of the overall market either.  While the spread could widen more, it's likely that we'll see a reversal in the relative underperformance of the Transports in the near future, but that doesn't mean the Dow is doomed.







http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/21/the-plight-of-the-transports.html


----------



## Joules MM1

more wheat from the chaffe........most positive reviews of markets and underlying or even out-layer fundamentals tend to come close to major tops in markets.....Joe maybe a tad early.....worth a read

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-...tton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame

*The Biggest Myth In The Stock Market Today*
Joe Weisenthal	| Sep. 22, 2012, 5:59 AM


----------



## Joules MM1

> julian ct ‏@joulesmm1
> 
> sad state of affairs: http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/genslerstatement092812 … ....this is a global trend of passive aggressive control sposed to benefit the community




http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/genslerstatement092812


----------



## Joules MM1

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/09/20120928cs.html

extrapolation bias?

thinking on it; look at the action of June-Aug 2010 and compare that to the current narration for this period, we're in now

excerpt


> The chart below shows the average Rel-to-52 for all the stocks in the S&P 500 (we measure the Rel-to-52 of each stock in the S&P 500 and average the results). We can see that the recent price highs were not confirmed by the Rel-to-52 Index, which means that there are fewer stocks pushing into the high side of the envelope.


----------



## Joules MM1

*CHARTS: Every Bullish And Bearish Trend In The Stock Market Right Now*
Sam Ro	| Sep. 27, 2012, 6:59 PM
intro:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/rbccm-market-sentiment-charts-2012-9?op=1#ixzz27wI1gfOl

charts:
http://www.businessinsider.com/rbcc...roved-but-the-number-who-expect-such-is-low-1


----------



## Joules MM1

*Despite 12% Rally Hedge Funds Turn From Stocks*

 By Whitney Kisling and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Oct 5, 2012 10:03 AM GMT+1000

excerpts



> The underexposure of hedge funds is one of the reasons I remain bullish on equities,” Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $26 billion as chief investment strategist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut, said in a phone interview. “It may create forced buying into the market.”
> 
> The ISI gauge of hedge-fund bullishness measuring the proportion of bets that shares will rise slipped to 46.5 last week from 48.1 in late August. The level is below the measure’s 10-year average of 50.2, the ISI data show.






> “There’s latent buying power in hedge funds which could help push the rally,” Ablin, who helps oversee about $65 billion as chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago, said in a phone interview. “I track liquidity looking for where the next dry powder is going to come from and I’m not seeing much in the traditional places.”
> 
> Investors expecting stocks to appreciate at the end of the year will be disappointed, according to Jeffrey Sica of SICA Wealth Management. Hedge funds won’t chase returns or accept more risk as the stock market becomes vulnerable to political turmoil in the U.S. where the so-called fiscal cliff looms and as Europe’s debt crisis worsens.




note the 







> so-called fiscal cliff



comment ......the worm turns so quickly


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Some more,
> S&P 500 with NYSE ad/dec data,
> View attachment 48990
> 
> 
> Nasdaq with Nas ad/dec data strong!
> 
> View attachment 48991




hey TH, where'd you grab those a/d indicators?


----------



## Joules MM1

*America's Debt-To-GDP Hits A 6-Year Low*
Joe Weisenthal	| Oct. 9, 2012, 3:42 PM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-hits-a-6-year-low-2012-10#ixzz28qiyMnLW

less ammo for the doomsters, tho wont stop strong pull back.....


----------



## kid hustlr

Joules MM1 said:


> *the din of "sell the rallies" overnight hit what i think is a small peak, i am buying the dips and selling the highs-to-close as opposed to getting short way too early as that is the very thing that assists these (SPX) distribution periods where shorter are creating the uptrend.*.....Bespoke.com noted that this mornings SPX close saw the first time in several consecutive closes where stocks bought exceeded sales offered......the daily close above 4440 on the XJO that i've been looking for appears on for today however the other big elephant in the boat that US futes pay close attention to is the DAX and that is very close to calling a sell signal in my opinion .....technically, on a 7 day 15 min  period there's a subtle inv h/s pattern on the DAX i've been running and a hold above 7270 with move above 7376 would be a very good sign of higher weekly highs.....
> 
> *even tho Twiggs clearly shows money coming out of US indecies and the TRANS giving off smelly sell signals i think we have higher to go to complete cycles pre-election.....i think the EURO/USD and the TED are signalling higher prices too....*




J, you wrote this in the XAO thread on 3rd October. Note the bolded. From what I gathered you felt the end was coming but you didn't want to get short too early.

Given the last few day's price action and the failure on the SPX to make a higher high are you still happy buying the dips? Perhaps we have a little bit of sideways action ahead of us or are we indeed going to start moving the other way for a while?

http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/10/10/us-double-top-threatened/ Twiggs seems to think a double top.


----------



## Demiurgo

Beware...


----------



## Joules MM1

*MORGAN STANLEY: Here's The Chart That Shows Why Stocks Are Suddenly In A Bunch Of Trouble*



Joe Weisenthal|Oct. 24, 2012, 7:02 PM


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-we-expect-bad-news-2012-10#ixzz2AGtjfhSE


----------



## Joules MM1

*Here's What 8 Economic Cycle Theories Are Saying About The World Right Now*



Rob Wile|Oct. 24, 2012, 6:38 PM


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-cycle-theories-2012-10?op=1#ixzz2AGuIWmFM

9 pages

----------------------------------------------------------------
edit: i dont usually comment on these news articles, shall on this one:



> julian ct‏@joulesmm1
> 
> no way Kondratief cycle can play out the way he contended....the speed of innovation couldnt be calc'd back then, tech infl on human activity


----------



## white_goodman

Joules MM1 said:


> *MORGAN STANLEY: Here's The Chart That Shows Why Stocks Are Suddenly In A Bunch Of Trouble*
> 
> 
> 
> Joe Weisenthal|Oct. 24, 2012, 7:02 PM
> 
> 
> Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-we-expect-bad-news-2012-10#ixzz2AGtjfhSE
> 
> View attachment 49455




as a note you would have to look at the yellow line with some skepticism as of 09/10 or an asterisk atleast as its unprecedented how much central banks are tinkering with the long end of the curve, so the yellow line may be skewed higher than 'natural' whatever that means


----------



## Joules MM1

how stocks faired on other election days

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/6/sp-500-on-presidential-election-days.html


----------



## Joules MM1

Wednesday, November 7, 2012
*Tail risks lurk in the shadows. Fiscal cliff is out in the open.* 

http://soberlook.com/2012/11/tail-risks-lurk-in-shadows-fiscal-cliff.html



plus text
+




plus text




plus text


----------



## CanOz

The Wedge appears again...


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> The Wedge appears again...




AKA "*Ending* Diagonal"?


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:


> AKA "*Ending* Diagonal"?




LOL, sounds ominous...Actually rising wedge patterns only meet their target 46% of the time according to Thomas Bulkowski's pattern site...

So no need to be too bearish...

CanOz


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> LOL, sounds ominous...Actually rising wedge patterns only meet their target 46% of the time according to Thomas Bulkowski's pattern site...
> 
> So no need to be too bearish...
> 
> CanOz




Well, while Uncle Ben is in charge, you can't be anything but a bull in nominal terms. I'd be hedging currency risk however, FWIW


----------



## Joules MM1

*Potential Sell Signal - Pure "90% Days"*

Posted in on November 9, 2012 - 12:36pm

By Lawrence G. McMillan

excerpt



> ....A “90% down day” is just the opposite – where declining issues and volume must outnumber advancing issues and volume by a 9-to-1 ratio or more.  For the purposes of this article, let’s designate this type of “90% day” as a “pure 90% day.”
> 
> A less stringent criteria is that of a “90% volume day,” where only the volume component is necessary to register a “90% day.”  These are rather rare occurrences, especially in terms of NYSE data....


----------



## baby_swallow

Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...
Thursday last week, we saw ES continued to sell off but this time with volume of more than 3 million.
ie: a figure more than double the daily average and a figure I haven't seen for a long time. 
Looks like the long term "longs" have been liquidating.
I can smell a rat here....something unpleasant will happen in the near future....


----------



## white_goodman

baby_swallow said:


> Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
> For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...




repainting


----------



## Joules MM1

* Bulls Go All In This Week*
Monday, November 19, 2012 at 08:56AM 


excerpt


> *The market hit its lowest level in months last week*.......As shown below, 66% of the 514 participants said the market would be higher, while just 34% said it would be lower.  This is *by far the highest bullish reading we've seen since we began conducting* this weekly poll back in February.




(and even more  )

*S&P 500 in Cheapest Bull Market Since Ronald Reagan*
By Whitney Kisling, Inyoung Hwang and Rita Nazareth - Nov 20, 2012 1:42 AM ET

excerpt


> Investors have seen $806 billion erased from the value of American equities since.....Nov. 6 in the biggest decline since May. ......
> “The stock market looks cheap because people are way too pessimistic about what growth looks like for the next 10 years,” said Brian Jacobsen, who helps oversee $208 billion as chief strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds and predicts the S&P 500 will rise 47 percent to 2,000 in 2014. “You can get big and rapid moves in the market when expectations are so low.”






> Even as shares fall, strategists are optimistic about gains next year. The S&P 500 will rally 17 percent to a record 1,585 by the end of 2013, according to the average forecast. The index climbed 1.3 percent to 1,376.96 at 9:36 a.m. New York time today.
> 
> Douglas Kass, the founder of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. in Palm Beach, Florida, who recommended buying stocks at the March 2009 low says the benchmark gauge may rise 18 percent to 1,600 next year.....




http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/19/bulls-go-all-in-this-week-1.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...l-market-since-reagan-trade-26-from-peak.html

:1zhelp:


----------



## Joules MM1

*Insider trading suggests markets heading for a rally *

Darcy Keith

excerpt



> Insiders in the energy sector seem especially bullish. INK’s energy indicator is now at 283 per cent, up from 263 per cent last week, with the ratio of buyers to sellers the highest of any of the top 10 sectors of the TSX. “Energy sector investors appear to be anticipating good news when Ottawa decides on the foreign takeover applications of Nexen and Progress Energy,” Mr. Dixon notes.
> 
> ....similar story in the U.S. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch points out that the ratio of all shares that insiders have recently sold in the open market to the number that they have purchased stood at 1.58 to 1 last week. That’s less than half the average level over the last decade of 3.4 to 1. The insiders’ sell-to-buy ratio got as high as 6.86 to 1 at the bull market’s high earlier this fall, he notes.
> 
> “In other words, at least when measured according to this indicator, the insiders are more than four times more optimistic about their companies’ shares now than two months ago. This much insider enthusiasm is a good sign,” he said.
> 
> ....Consider this: since the bull market that began in March 2009, there have been just three occasions prior to now in which the sell-to-buy ratio fell below 2 to 1 in the U.S. Each time, it came within a few weeks of a significant low in the market, according to Mr. Hulbert.




http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-markets-heading-for-a-rally/article5531737/


----------



## Joules MM1

tweet ness city



> Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy
> 
> Folks jumped on 40%+ AAII bears in recent weeks. Silence about this week's 40% bulls -- highest in 14 weeks.


----------



## white_goodman

baby_swallow said:


> Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
> For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...
> Thursday last week, we saw ES continued to sell off but this time with volume of more than 3 million.
> ie: a figure more than double the daily average and a figure I haven't seen for a long time.
> Looks like the long term "longs" have been liquidating.
> I can smell a rat here....something unpleasant will happen in the near future....




hows that rat going?


----------



## Joules MM1

i thought the spx would at least acquire the 1425 level before looking like zipper head....interestingly a lot of protection got bought this morning and a few technicians were hot on the press talking this over......but i suspect it's much ado about nothing with the topic dujour having only 8 days to agreement in congress et al......

mos def not to be ignored tho.....

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/2012/11/final-vix-putcallratio-for-friday-nov_30.html






the weighting is based on actual dollars, or, bets placed on direction and not based on an index or cap weighting.....for mine it's a good look at intra action and expectation and this mornings trades appear to have a just-in-case on a wider time frame......someones expecting some volatility and some cheap protection for the next  14 t days

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2012.pdf


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> i thought the spx would at least acquire the 1425 level before looking like zipper head....interestingly a lot of protection got bought this morning and a few technicians were hot on the press talking this over......but i suspect it's much ado about nothing with the topic dujour having only 8 days to agreement in congress et al......
> 
> mos def not to be ignored tho.....
> 
> http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/2012/11/final-vix-putcallratio-for-friday-nov_30.html
> 
> View attachment 49807
> 
> View attachment 49808
> 
> 
> the weighting is based on actual dollars, or, bets placed on direction and not based on an index or cap weighting.....for mine it's a good look at intra action and expectation and this mornings trades appear to have a just-in-case on a wider time frame......someones expecting some volatility and some cheap protection for the next  14 t days
> 
> http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2012.pdf




This whole fiscal cliff thing is causing as much volatility as the whole EU breakup no breakup thingy!

Yes they agree, no they don't, yes they do, no they don't.....



CanOz


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## Joules MM1

gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......


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## nysefloortrader

Joules MM1 said:


> gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......




I think you might be right, even if we do get a bit of a sell off, seaonally the bears get shafted in december anyway, and there is a thing called and xmas rally. It is not just a myth. While the big dogs on the trading floor do the walk away trade. And up we go. 

On the weekly chart, things are not looking bearish at all, that is for sure. We could be at 1500 very soon, very very soon,....indeed!


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## nysefloortrader

Joules MM1 said:


> gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......




HUI on the weekly is nearly ready to pop. Gunna be a huge rally in gold and metals soon, you can see it.


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## Joules MM1

and le pop she le goes!

is this a gap and go today....spx futes leap 5 points


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## Joules MM1

funds buying gold last week but commercials still lean sell side......if the pin goes from metals to equities we are going to see a lot of momo in the indeices......

which is nice

conversely does appear that commecials favour equities or at least the sp500 .....trap n skin


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## nysefloortrader

Joules MM1 said:


> funds buying gold last week but commercials still lean sell side......if the pin goes from metals to equities we are going to see a lot of momo in the indeices......
> 
> which is nice
> 
> conversely does appear that commecials favour equities or at least the sp500 .....trap n skin




The weekly gold charts says a rally will be coming soon, after some down. 

The summation chart in Indicies, is on a buy, that means, if you are a bear, and trying to short, you are in serious trouble for the next few weeks. Big trouble. 

1500+ is coming on SPX I think sooner rather than later.


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## Joules MM1

from Jason Geopfert:






> Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader
> 
> Hmm, unfortunate timing. pic.twitter.com/iJcstCAP




personally, i thank the pollies for todays free lunch, rare as they are....


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## baby_swallow

This market will be dominated  by Cliff in the remaining days of 2012 and probably
will even extend to early Jan if they didn't reach an agreement. 
The market will be volatile with little volume...and can go either way.
I prefer if they push the market up to 1500 level...not that I'm long, its because I'm a contrarian.
If the market will surge towards 1500, I will start placing my shorts.....

That's it for me....Happy Christmas everyone and see you next year!!!!


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## Joules MM1

*S&P 500 wot doth 2013 bringeth?*

DAVID ROSENBERG PRESENTS: *34 Charts You Must See Before Making A Move In 2013*



Mamta Badkar


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-2013-investment-outlook-2012-12?op=1#ixzz2FzBl6KpU

from the scary memorabillia section of the future cafe:

ok, like, i'll take the de-leveraging picture, oh and can i like get it framed, yeah?


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## Joules MM1

*Re: S&P 500 wot doth 2013 bringeth?*

*The Last Two Times Corporate Insiders Got This Bearish, Stocks Went On To Dive*



Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism


Read more: http://pragcap.com/hulbert-insiders-are-turning-bearish#ixzz2FzE4wqvS

excerpt







> The last time Mark Hulbert updated his insider trading data the market was in the process of bottoming.  He said insiders were very bullish.  How quickly sentiment changes in a month!  His latest update shows a huge reversal in insider sentiment:
> 
> “For the week that ended last Friday, this sell-to-buy ratio for NYSE-listed shares listed stood at 6.67-to-1. That means insiders, on average, were selling nearly seven shares of their companies’ stock for every one that they were buying. One month ago, in contrast, the comparable ratio stood at 1.54-to-1.


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## nysefloortrader

baby_swallow said:


> This market will be dominated  by Cliff in the remaining days of 2012 and probably
> will even extend to early Jan if they didn't reach an agreement.
> The market will be volatile with little volume...and can go either way.
> I prefer if they push the market up to 1500 level...not that I'm long, its because I'm a contrarian.
> If the market will surge towards 1500, I will start placing my shorts.....
> 
> That's it for me....Happy Christmas everyone and see you next year!!!!




That is a good plan. 

the breadth and summation are not working in favour for the bears. 

It seems that there is NICE room for one push higher LATE DEC - EARLY JAN 2013 and if that happens, 1480 - 1500 then we will drop hard. 

What is happpening at the moment, the pros are getting everyone bearish on the fiscal mess, and then ramp us up higher.  yes that old chest nut. But we are just in holiday reversals at the moment, that will soon fade and the market in the next few weeks will resuming the rally.


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## notting

nysefloortrader said:


> the pros are getting everyone bearish on the fiscal mess, and then ramp us up higher.  yes that old chest nut.




Aint that the truth.
Was watching events unfold on my phone, with headlines of a cliff deal and the market rallying.
Then finally switched on the US business channels and they are spewing all over it.
Unbelievable.


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## CanOz

S&P 500 after last nights session...

Not quite a key reversal but darn close enough to be bearish in the short term...

CanOz


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## CanOz

Some statistics on the 60m Initial Balance. A bit hard to see but I'll try and get the larger shots.


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## chops_a_must

Hi Can.

Can you explain a little more what you're finding there?

Some kind of mini breakout/ breakdown play?


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## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Hi Can.
> 
> Can you explain a little more what you're finding there?
> 
> Some kind of mini breakout/ breakdown play?




Sure Chops. If you follow Market Profile or believe that markets opens and negotiates value in the first hour. Then either stays balanced and trades "in value" or becomes out of balance and seeks new value, then these numbers can be handy.

We can try and figure out the _probability_ of the market breaking out of the IB range, when it will breakout, how far price will move...etc.

Also, the determination of the IB range is the starting point of course. This has already been done for the ES so I've just used the accepted 60m IB.

You can read more here...

I'm working on Excel with another guy. We did the ES first so our results were similar to Rancho's. Then we're doing the Asian markets, the SPI, TW, NK...then onto Europe as well.

CanOz


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## chops_a_must

Looks very interesting.

Got some reading tonight.


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## Boggo

Still looks very interesting !
Working backwards and using the last three legs indicates potential target area around 1500.

(click to expand)


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## baby_swallow

The ES price action is on track to fill the gap that was made on 6th March .....
(Gap 1595.5 - 1607.25)
So, IMO, the sell off will continue. But ES is expected to retrace back up tonight because it gone "too short"


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## CanOz

baby_swallow said:


> The ES price action is on track to fill the gap that was made on 6th March .....
> (Gap 1595.5 - 1607.25)
> So, IMO, the sell off will continue. But ES is expected to retrace back up tonight because it gone "too short"
> 
> View attachment 52653




I haven't looked at my profiles yet, or read Jim Dalton's updates, but i'm guessing he'll be saying inventory is very short at the moment....lets see..


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## baby_swallow

CanOz said:


> I haven't looked at my profiles yet, or read Jim Dalton's updates, but i'm guessing he'll be saying inventory is very short at the moment....lets see..



High probability is it will revisit the whole VA


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## CanOz

Spot on Swallow...



> The market may have gotten too short; I would prefer to sell a failed rally rather than short at the current level. Your short-term references are; the gap on the downside and Wednesday’s POC followed by the two rally highs.  The best odds favor a balancing day. - Jim Dalton




If we do balance, then i would expect a test of 1621 again too...this will be the one to watch, the decision point that tells me if this is a small correction or the start of something a little bigger. 

CanOz


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## baby_swallow

CanOz said:


> If we do balance, then *i would expect a test of 1621* again too...this will be the one to watch, the decision point that tells me if this is a small correction or the start of something a little bigger.
> CanOz




*You nailed it !*


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## CanOz

Well these levels usually get tested so it wasn't like it was a huge thing. If you learn this stuff and get a bit of help along the way from guys like Jim, then you can figure it out quite easily on your own and compare your own analysis to his when its comes out....

For Friday this is what i see, which also agreed with Dalton's thoughts as well pretty much.

1624.5 was the HOD on Thursday. This spike high is our key inflection point for tonight. If we can accept value above this then we could see a substantial short covering auction. If we cannot trade above this then the downside auction could continue. If we head lower the GAP comes into play. The lower side of the GAP will be resistance again at 1595.5. If it gets taken out then we should see downside continuation after a retest.

This is how I'm expecting the news to play out, i wouldn't trade this...never do, but like seeing how it plays out to see if i can get in sync with the sentiment.

From the news side, I'm guessing a surprise positive NFP report will tank the equity markets, drive up the dollar and drop gold. CL will be interesting, will it get shaken out finally, its putting in an inside week? Short term notes will rally, long bonds will rally....but for how long?

A surprise negative report will rally the equity markets, expecting more Kool Aid (QE) ...tank the dollar and spike GOLD...again CL should tank with an expectation of contracting growth but a weak dollar will mute that somewhat...Long bonds may rally, while short term notes drop?

Can't wait, my favorite Friday night! corn:

CanOz


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## CanOz

Well in the aftermath of NFP we have a classic "P" profile. Usually indicative of short covering. I'm only showing the RTH here as the only thing missing during the ETH was the small balance area around 1621. If the market cannot accept value here then i would expect a test of the spike low again. It is possible that we test the top of the profile and accelerate higher, but unlikely without a test lower first. I'm guessing we balance Monday during the Globex session, then perhaps test the spike low and the 1621 area again during RTH. We may balance for another day before this happens.... I'll be looking for some new longs in strong stocks that haven't yet broken out...

CL and GC made some nice swings, CL broke its TL and then rocketed back up to make a new recent high, expect at least a re-test of 95.5 and perhaps even 94.73...GC broke lower and i would expect a retest of 1397 before continuing lower. 

CanOz


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## CanOz

Well we indeed testing that 1621 area again and so far we rejected it, not very convincingly though. As long as we build value above that level then the short term auction to the upside is still in play. I we breakdown again, then the lows are back in play. We'll see how this compares to Jim Dalton's thinking when i get my updates later...

1630 is the "fairest value" as defined by the POC or Point of Control. The highest volume bar on the histogram.

Update: Dalton is "Short Term Neutral", so 1621 is the range center...


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## MARKETWINNER

_Despite bruising selloff in assets globally still S&P500 holding above 1600 level. 

What we saw last couple of days is adjustments of positions in all types of assets including currency. Not only stocks but also currencies including emerging and frontier currencies went down during last couple of days. For example even Kenyan shilling, Indian and Sri-Lankan rupees all went down last couple of days.

Still S&P 500 and USD uptrend is intact and in the long run USA market should go up further. There is a possibility even S & P 500 can touch 1700 level. Few frontier markets in Asia and North African region also will have strong market and their currency also should appreciate in the coming quarters.

However there will be short term volatility in all types of assets such stocks, commodities and currencies globally.  

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions._


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## Boggo

Follow on from here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=10488&page=41&p=775719&viewfull=1#post775719

Minimum and maximum levels of significance, we are 33 points away from min target.
Max target and significant support level is 117 points away.

Just my


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## CanOz

Well the trend is busted ad we are going through the re test process, even the re test of the re test....

The question is though, is this bull market finished?


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## MARKETWINNER

S&P 500 one of my favorites indexes in the investment world along with DOW and NASDAQ. It could go up again breaking 1850 and should reach around 1900 before we see some correction in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## Trembling Hand

MARKETWINNER said:


> S&P 500 one of my favorites indexes in the investment world along with DOW and NASDAQ. It could go up again breaking 1850 and should reach around 1900 before we see some correction in 2014.
> 
> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.




lol!


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## baby_swallow

Monthly chart:
The January bar is now within the striking distance of the Dec low. 
Weekly chart:
The down bar went past the previous 4 mos lows and it broke the support at 1810. 
Daily bar:
After two days of sell off, SPX closed at 1790, the price level which happens to be the last month's Point of Control (POC in Market Profile terms).
Revisiting this POC or the  "value price", I expect a pullback from here.
After that, the sell of might continue depending on the current turmoil, ie: funds pulling out from the emerging market countries.


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## Valued

Trembling Hand said:


> lol!




Oh come now TH, don't be a bear. This stock is heading to the moon!


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## baby_swallow

My call was one day early for the expected bounce, though the ES Globex (overnight futures) did actually
retraced and was up 0.50% at one time before it continued the down move during the RTH.
The SPX found support at 1772 and now in a short term oversold formation. The internals are also in
the oversold territory, so the expected bounce is more likely to occur, (a pullback is needed for a sell off to continue).
Next stop is around 1730 level. Note the GAP just above it. This is more likely to be filled.


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## John45

I believe that a strong correction is coming soon. I will enter short positions when spx reaches 1885-1940.


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## Wysiwyg

Index Futures sitting on support now.


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## skyQuake

Wysiwyg said:


> Index Futures sitting on support now.




1999 is also limit down


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## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> 1999 is also limit down




Japan limit down...


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## Darc Knight

Maybe a good idea to limit ASX and put more into S&P500?


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## Student of Gann

Price could trade up into the 10th September -/+ 1 . There are  two scenarios that may play out and three price levels I am monitoring  . My strategy is to observe price action as it  moves into the 10th September Time Cycle . The three price levels I am monitoring are 3015 which is a minor price level that should be exceeded . The second price level is 3026  and the main area I am watching is between *3044-3050*  if achieved will be a Historic High for The SP500 . 3044 is one Cycle or two full squares up from 5th August 2822 Low  . 3050 is two full squares up from 3rd March Low 2728 .From the 3rd of March Low till ( 1oth September 3044 ) High price will have moved at the rate of 1.66 points per degree which could also be an important factor . Price will also be up 6 3/4 Squares from the 26th December 2018 Low . As price approaches the 10th September I will try and refine and quantify a key price zone further . Thanks


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## Student of Gann

SP500 
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
 Revised Projection  2019 :


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## Student of Gann

Curve No 1 has been updated  . The Market should follow Curve No 2 more closely . The Top is in at 2989 10th September . Initially I was expecting a Top Price of 3015 . From 10th September 2989 the Main Trend should continue down to 28th October . Curve 2 :


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## Student of Gann

27th  September 2945 should be minor low as indicated on Curve 2 then we should see a run up to the 9th October before resumption of downtrend into the 28th October


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## Smurf1976

I'm no expert on the underlying theory but this seemed like the best place to post it given that the DJIA and the S&P500 are reasonably correlated.

The Dow Transports reached at high in September 2018 which thus far hasn't been exceeded.

In contrast there have since been two new highs since then in the DJIA and three in the S&P500.

To my understanding that's a warning sign, right? The transports are supposed to confirm new highs in the DJIA but seem to be failing to do so.

Others have any thoughts on this?


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## Student of Gann

Looking for a Minor Top into the 4th December . The two price targets are 3170 or 3188 and then a correction into the 11th December  before resumption of uptrend


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## ducati916

From the COT:






We can see that the buying of the bigger players has been, well, meh. It is the (almost total) lack of any selling that is the more interesting point.

This rather suggests that any pullbacks will be relatively shallow and short-lived, unless that selling situation changes.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916

Student of Gann said:


> Looking for a Minor Top into the 4th December . The two price targets are 3170 or 3188 and then a correction into the 11th December  before resumption of uptrend




So based on the above (COT), this could well be a reasonable position to take.

jog on
duc


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## Student of Gann

Past records indicate Top due for 4th December with two significant price points to monitor either 3170 or 3188 then based upon the first Timing model downtrend to 11th December which could be a 4.25% decline before resumption of trend into Major Top indicated January 2020 .


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## Student of Gann

17th January 2020 Main Top indicated from recollection.


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## gartley

ducati916 said:


> From the COT:
> 
> View attachment 98807
> 
> 
> We can see that the buying of the bigger players has been, well, meh. It is the (almost total) lack of any selling that is the more interesting point.
> 
> This rather suggests that any pullbacks will be relatively shallow and short-lived, unless that selling situation changes.
> 
> jog on
> duc



What else can be expected from a FED managed fake market....


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## tech/a

Student of Gann said:


> Past records indicate Top due for 4th December with two significant price points to monitor either 3170 or 3188 then based upon the first Timing model downtrend to 11th December which could be a 4.25% decline before resumption of trend into Major Top indicated January 2020 .




Ive read this a few times 
What on earth is the point of it.

key words 
Past
Either
Model
Could

Personally I Think it’s pretty easy 
Stay long.


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## gartley

Student of Gann said:


> Past records indicate Top due for 4th December with two significant price points to monitor either 3170 or 3188 then based upon the first Timing model downtrend to 11th December which could be a 4.25% decline before resumption of trend into Major Top indicated January 2020 .



I think a short term top maybe already in place here. Possibly a 2 or 3% correction . Agreed about a top early next year)))


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## gartley

tech/a said:


> Ive read this a few times
> What on earth is the point of it.
> 
> key words
> Past
> Either
> Model
> Could
> 
> Personally I Think it’s pretty easy
> Stay long.



Tech. Obviously makes sense to trend follow except for one minor problem IMO.
At these levels reversals can be quite dramatic as in a flash crash overnight and in excess of 15%  as had been demonstrated a number of times in the last few years..


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## tech/a

I agree —— if you look back at a chart and label it.
You don’t have to be Gann or Gartley to do that.
Amazingly accurate!

But label a chart going forward and let’s see if 1:10 
Play out.

The McClaren report went for years 
The constant feature of that was the endless reasons 
A pressure point didn’t play out followed by the next
That not surprisingly didn’t Adhere to analysis then the
Next that——-

I know you know what I mean.


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## Student of Gann

3110 Low should hold  2nd December 11.10AM before Main Top 4th December 2019


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## Student of Gann

3176 13th December should be Top .  Will try and calculate the next potential Low point over coming days when I have time .


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## Student of Gann

17th January  Main Top indicated from recollection

Top is in at 3308 .


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## Student of Gann

SP500 : 17th January 2020 Top .

 Posted 30th November 2019 .  3308 should hold .


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## CityIndex

The S&P500 broke yet another record this year as Santa’s rally seemed to kick in. Buyers stepped into the market after Monday initially began with heavy selling. This allowed the index to bounce off trend line support, and it could now be set up for breakout after finally closing above $4700.

However, the recent rally comes on the back of lower trading volume, potentially poking holes in its legitimacy. Thursday’s PCE inflation data might act as an early confirmation of Fed’s raising interest rates in March, and when coupled with a slowdown in consumer spending, investors could be looking to take profits at the current level.

Will this be the start of another leg higher, or is it simply a bit of optimism before Christmas?

 All trading carries risk, but this could be one to keep an eye on heading into the new year.


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## bux2000

I have been watching with great interest today trying to put it all together and guessing as to where the support is going to be and where to from here.

Can I ask if *ES1! *is any kind of reliable indicator in these situations or can it all turn to guano before the markets open in the US tomorrow.

It is going to be an interesting week, this trading lurk is certainly not for the faint hearted   

Thanks 
bux


----------



## Ann

Looking at volume spikes again and the S&P500. Thursday's trading in the US saw substantial volume spikes in both oil and gold at their high prices after a rise, S&P500 saw a substantial volume spike at the low price of a fall. It appears a volume spike at either the top of a price range or the bottom of a price range will see a reversal in that price, either down if the price has hit a high or up if the price has hit a low. Clearly, there is nothing guaranteed in the market's charts but a very interesting potential indicator for future price movements.
Wonder if this is simply a dead cat bounce for the stock market or something more substantial? Dunno!


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions

Act: _66.6K_ Cons:  Prev.: _121.8K_

is this a confirmation money is going into Bonds rather than Shares @over9k


----------



## over9k

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
> 
> Act: _66.6K_ Cons:  Prev.: _121.8K_
> 
> is this a confirmation money is going into Bonds rather than Shares @over9k



Just look at yields for bonds - they're down despite everything that's going on. Fed reverse repo facility is another one to keep an eye on, which is also at record levels. 

Both of which obviously aren't stocks.


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un

All that hullabaloo over Walmart and Target revising their Profits, I missed the bit about them absorbing the increased costs due to Inflation.

Yanks still spending up, Demand not drying up yet. I'm guessing itll remain the same for our Economy too, although our Employment and Wage growth isn't as strong as Americas.


----------

