# NCM - Newcrest Mining



## Profitseeker

Ouch! Oh Dear! Should prove to be a good buying opportunity today for the long term. I'm not panicking and selling.


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## RichKid

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*



			
				Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Ouch! Oh Dear! Should prove to be a good buying opportunity today for the long term. I'm not panicking and selling.




Yep, very disappointing report today, costs are up significantly, production rates not helping and outlook is cloudy and flat with the perennial problems at Telfer still not out of the way. This really looks like a lame duck waiting to be picked off by a better team that can extract full value, like WMC in a way, world class assets from reports but not the best performer. I see this going lower, the breakout to new highs appears to be failing, the only thing that's helping it is the pog which has that positive sentiment attached to it.

I hope holders who employ stops have them at the forefront of their minds.


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## RichKid

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

The co had a bit of a blue with a broker, maybe they'll release a savage report in response. So many problems so many excuses. http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...rofit-downgrade/2005/10/19/1129401316817.html


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## RichKid

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

This is a relatively mild report, I've seen worse, just when you think it's all ok with Telfer things get worse. 



> NEWCREST, AND THE BALL AND CHAIN THAT IS TELFER
> www.aireview.com.au issue 82
> Oct 27 2005
> 
> Australia’s premier gold miner, Newcrest Mining (NCM) has not been winning many fans this month.
> 
> Of AIR’s ten-broker universe, four have downgraded the stock in October. One has dropped the stock to Neutral, while the other three have gone one step further. Macquarie is feeling lonely at Outperform.
> One broker to downgrade from Neutral to Sell is Merrill Lynch. This has fl owed from the analysts’ profi t downgrades of 17.4% in FY06 and 9.5% in FY07.
> 
> No prizes for guessing the root of the problem is Telfer, and the metallurgical problems it continues to face. Added diffi culties include a 1% fall in production in the September quarter from June, at a
> cash cost of A$211/oz which is up 68%. Newcrest has issued its third profi t warning in 12 months.
> 
> For the geologically minded, Newcrest reports complex metallurgy continues to be encountered in the supergene zone of the orebody. Whilst planned commissioning of the pyrite plant in January 06 is expected to allow higher grades to be fed into the plant, a mineral called cobaltite is now impacting
> concentrate specifi cations. Merrill Lynch suggests it appears more attention is needed to be paid in the feasibility study in regards to metallurgy. Newcrest is carrying out a metallurgical review which is not yet complete
> but indicates that the Telfer ore reserve model will be confi rmed. Additionally, workforce turnover at Telfer remains extremely high at greater than 60% in the pit.
> 
> These issues are concerning to the analysts given Telfer makes up greater than 50% of their net present value calculation and contains 52% of group reserves. Corporate appeal is signifi cantly diminished, in the analysts’ view, whilst issues persist at Telfer given it is the key driver of earnings
> growth and valuation moving forward.
> 
> The analysts’ valuation has now fallen by 5% to $8.85ps which equates to 2x net present value.


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

It looks like the stock will open up again today though. Is everyone buying back in because of the rumoured take over move or is it just a natural bounce. I'm thinking that it is the takeover thing. I don't believe anyone would make a takeover bid till Telfer is sorted. Thinking about selling out and waiting for an opportunity to renter.


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

Directors are buying. Could be a good sign.


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

 WOW. What is going on? This can not just be the gold price? Can it?


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

This is going to open like a rocket!


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## RichKid

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*



			
				Profitseeker said:
			
		

> I don't believe anyone would make a takeover bid till Telfer is sorted. Thinking about selling out and waiting for an opportunity to renter.




If everyone thinks that then a better management team from a predator co may think otherwise.


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

Last 10 Trades Help  

The last 10 trades* of the security you selected are detailed below.

 ASX Code:     (Search for ASX Code)      

All Ordinaries ASX Time Market Status Legend 
4781.7  0.6  09:43 pm, 12 January 2006  SEATS is closed  Rise Fall 


Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) 
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions 
12-01-2006 04:34 PM $24.920 24521 $611,063.320 Portfolio Special Crossing 
12-01-2006 04:29 PM $25.589 2490 $63,716.610 Portfolio Special Crossing 
12-01-2006 04:26 PM $25.600 19344 $495,206.400 Portfolio Special Crossing 
12-01-2006 04:21 PM $25.132 220000 $5,529,040.000 Special Block Crossing or Special Crossing in Loan Securities 
12-01-2006 04:15 PM $24.920 5000 $124,600.000   
12-01-2006 04:15 PM $24.920 4000 $99,680.000   
12-01-2006 04:15 PM $24.920 3000 $74,760.000   
12-01-2006 04:15 PM $24.920 750 $18,690.000   
12-01-2006 04:15 PM $24.920 600 $14,952.000   
12-01-2006 04:15 PM $24.920 2500 $62,300.000   


* Any trades that have been cancelled will not be displayed as such.



 © Copyright 2005. Westpac Securities Limited (ABN 39 087 924 221).
For assistance call 13 13 31.


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

Am I reading the above right? DId somone buy 5 million dollar worth of shares in one hit?


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## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*

What do you like about Newcrest profitseeker?


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## RichKid

This co seems to have hit a snag, all the gold stocks are rising but it's still going sideways. Why? IMO it's the hedging which is really crippling it and the problems at Telfer (some poor grades reported recently, then there were the fires before that), I don't think the current boss is very media/broker friendly either so maybe when he retires next month the replacement will get things going properly and fix the labour shortages etc.

Bottom line appears to be the hedging that is stifling the sp, does anyone know when the effect of it all will end? Can they proactively 'dehedge' or do you just have to wait for their contracts to expire? I don't know how they do it. LHG was having similar issues but it seems to be behind them, now look at the sp. A similar turnaround for NCM should see it race up imo, no wonder it's a takeover target, imagine the value that could be added to a co that has a world class resource at Telfer. I've been considering NCM as a long term proposition but I think LHG would be a better bet atm- only issue is the sovereign risk for the latter.

Do any of the fundamentals ppl out there have any view on this? My TA view is it's in some sort of wedge or triangle, no sign of impending breakout from the volume but overall trend is bullish, I'd like to see upward movement of high volume through $24 in the next week or so.


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## bvbfan

They could unwind their hedges but I estimate that it would cost $1-2billion

When I last looked in 2001 they were $400million or so underwater with the hedgebook at $300/oz


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## Profitseeker

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> What do you like about Newcrest profitseeker?




Liked. I sold out in April but have been thining about reentering in weakness. Not because I do not like them long term but because there are so many other good opportunites around. I am also very confused about what state their hedge book is actually in. The fact that management has not released an annoucement about it suggests that it can not be pretty. However they remain a take over target and I think next year their hedging position gets better. If the price of gold is still high the share price could really take off then in a catch up situation.


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## RichKid

*Re: Newcrest Mining (NCM)*



			
				Profitseeker said:
			
		

> Liked. I sold out in April but have been thining about reentering in weakness. Not because I do not like them long term but because there are so many other good opportunites around. I am also very confused about what state their hedge book is actually in. The fact that management has not released an annoucement about it suggests that it can not be pretty. However they remain a take over target and I think next year their hedging position gets better. If the price of gold is still high the share price could really take off then in a catch up situation.




Here's an article based on the quarterly report, sounds worse than I thought, so many negatives it's not funny. I'm sure there are better management teams out there, all you hear are excuses. So basically the higher the gold price the more they lose out in profits, I hope they dump the hedging on the next major pullback in gold, should be due in a few weeks at this rate.  







> *Gold, copper boom hits Newcrest's hedgebook*
> JOHN PHACEAS The West Australian 27 April 2006
> http://www.thewest.com.au/20060427/business/tw-business-home-sto134026.html
> 
> Booming copper and gold prices have punched another $600 million hole in Newcrest Mining's balance sheet in just three months, pushing its massive hedgebook almost $2 billion into the red.
> 
> Australia's biggest independent gold miner yesterday also revealed further problems at its flagship Telfer mine in the Pilbara, which resulted in lower than expected production for the March quarter.
> 
> Gold prices have soared to 25-year highs above $US630 an ounce this year, while copper is now at record levels around $US7150 a tonne. At the start of the year, gold was trading at $US520/oz while copper was worth $US4500 a tonne.
> 
> In its March quarterly, Newcrest revealed the mark-to-market value of its hedgebook had subsequently plunged $1.95 billion into the red, compared to $1.34 billion at the end of December.
> 
> Newcrest had 5.1 million ounces of gold hedged under contracts that were $1.7 billion in the red at the end of March, while contracts for 60,000 tonnes of copper were $266 million out of the money.
> 
> Though the company still enjoyed a healthy operating margin based on average production costs of $219/oz, the hedgebook restricted its average realised gold price to just $521/oz in the quarter - a big discount to yesterday's Australian dollar gold price of $846/oz.
> 
> Newcrest said gold production had slumped from 430,000oz in the December quarter to just under 368,000oz in the March period largely due to cyclonic weather and falling grades at Telfer, and scheduled maintenance shutdowns at its Cadia operations in NSW. Total copper output fell 12 per cent to 23,219 tonnes.
> 
> At the $1.4 billion Telfer mine, gold production slipped by almost 13,000oz to 162,800oz while copper production slid 29 per cent to 7770 tonnes.
> 
> Newcrest said gold output was lower than expected because of lower than budgeted ore grades caused by the need to bolster copper grades to comply with the specifications of its concentrate contracts.
> 
> In a further blow to Newcrest in the wake of the massive cost blowouts and delays which have already hampered the Telfer development, the company conceded it needed to develop a "better understanding of ore types and grades within areas of the pit" even though mining was expected to return to a higher grade zone in the current quarter.
> 
> On a brighter note, Newcrest said it had finally begun production from the Telfer underground mine and had commissioned the pyrite plant to maximise gold recovery.
> 
> Consequently, it believed its reduced 2005-06 production target of 700,000oz at Telfer remained "a realistic estimate". That target was down from its initial 800,000oz in February.
> 
> Newcrest also revealed managing director Tony Palmer would exit the company next week, leaving director Bryan Davis to become interim chief executive.
> 
> Analysts said the March numbers were disappointing and warned they could result in a further downgrade of profit forecasts for this year.
> 
> But investors were unfazed by the numbers, pushing the stock 77 ¢ higher to $22.79 on the back of the buoyant gold price and extending its gains to 44 per cent over the last year.


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## Profitseeker

Thanks Richkid. That confirms what i thought.


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## RichKid

Here is a more favourable view of NCM's hedging, sans the benefit of the hindsight we now enjoy re the pog. Although if they hadn't stuffed around with bringing Telfer into production under budget it would all be much better.



> Feature Story: Gold Hedging – How and Why? Part II
> FN Arena News - April 07 2006
> 
> Continuing from Part I
> 
> This all sounds very sensible doesn't it? The problem is, however, that it creates a dilemma for the shareholder of the mining company. An investor with a diversified portfolio can always sell out of gold mining shares if the view is that the gold price will go down. In a way, the shareholder is really not bothered with a need for the mining company to be hedged.
> 
> But where the shareholder loses out is on the upside. The price of gold might rally (and this is why an investor would hold gold mining stock) but the value of the shares may not rally in the same proportion by virtue of the hedge – the predetermined sales price obligations of the mining company.
> 
> This then becomes a quandary for the mining company, which may need to attract equity funding in order to proceed with a mining venture. Should the answer be simply death or glory? Should mining companies just not hedge?
> 
> Some don't, but then some have to. Hedging can be divided into that which is "discretionary" – on the decision of the mining company – and that which is "non-discretionary" – on the insistence of a third party.
> 
> That third party would be a lender of start-up capital for a particular mining project. It might be just a bank. Insistence may also come in the form of a necessity within a debt instrument of specific maturity, underwritten by an investment bank or other institution. While equity holders look to the upside, debt holders fear the downside.
> 
> The end result of all of this is you will find most gold miners have some level of hedging in place. Okay, this puts some limits on the upside, but then nothing else can go wrong, can it?
> 
> Oh yes indeed. Hedging is not the end of the risk. In fact, it creates its own risk.
> 
> In all of the hedging scenarios the common theme is that the gold miner will always ultimately produce the gold to meet the obligations. But what if it doesn't? What if the geological surveys were off the mark, or a mine collapses, or something goes terribly wrong in the production process?
> 
> If a miner can't come up with the gold, then it pretty much has to come up with the cash as compensation. But if the miner is not mining enough gold to sell, chances are there won't be a lot of that cash. This is the situation currently facing Croesus Mining (CRS).
> 
> Croesus has undertaken hedging which has left it with obligations its mines cannot fill. It has been burning cash to meet gold sale shortfalls, and there is still more to come. Yet the amount of gold it is extracting is nowhere near enough. Someone's estimates were terribly wrong. At present, trading in Croesus is suspended while the third parties see if they can keep it afloat.
> 
> Sons of Gwalia also had problems with gold production. As the end grew near, this was what the company put up as its excuse. The truth, however, was a bit more sinister.
> 
> Looking at our three hedging scenarios, borrow-and-sell, and forward-sell are straightforward concepts. Options are a bit more tricky, but the strategy presented here is what could be called a "vanilla" one. In the latter case, however, there is no end to the complexity of structured hedging deals that could be, and have been, constructed either by a counterparty, all of which have the theme of "optionality".
> 
> Optionality (the concept whereby a right exists, but not necessarily an obligation) is a form of leverage. Let's go back to shares for a minute to understand this.
> 
> You can buy BHP Billiton (BHP) shares now for $29.85 and pay for them. You can buy June expiry, $30 call options now for $1.78, and only pay $1.78. Provided BHP rallies by (30.00-29.85 + 1.78 =) $1.93 before June, your options will be break-even. Any upside above that is yours. No upside and you just lose $1.78, not $29.85.
> 
> Because you can sell the options before expiry, you could capture any upside to that point while still only having outlaid $1.78, but make an almost identical profit on the deal as if you have forked out for shares. But if you have X amount of money to invest, you can buy one hell of a lot more options than you could shares, and thus make one hell of a lot more money. This is called leverage.
> 
> Coming back to gold, the same applies in reverse. A gold miner could actually end up making a lot more than the upside in the gold price by virtue of option leverage provided the deal was structured accordingly and everything went to plan. In this way, hedging is no longer just hedging – it's punting. Of course, it all relies on producing enough gold…
> 
> That's what happened to Sons of Gwalia, and a number of other gold miners around the same time. They stopped using a hedge book as insurance, and started using it as a profit centre. And they came unstuck.
> 
> History is littered with hedgers who brought down a company – not just in gold.
> 
> The days of such highly risky, highly complex deals are over (for now). In fact, the level of gold hedging has actually halved in the last four years or so – not because the gold price has rallied, but because no one wants to touch complex, leveraged trades with a ten foot pole. Not miners anyway (hedge funds have taken over the role).
> 
> This is also resulted in a reduction of the number of hedging counterparties. The cowboys have left the ranch and only the traditional service-providers remain.
> 
> To hedge or not to hedge? That is yadayada. How are gold miners approaching this question in 2006?
> *
> Let's have a look at Newcrest (NCM) – Australia's leading gold company. There has been much discussion of late that Newcrest's share price is overvalued because although the gold price is going to the moon, the company has hedge obligations dating back five years. Five years ago the gold price was (a lot) less than US$500/oz, so the differences are obvious.
> 
> Newcrest's hedging policy is one that has come about largely from a non-discretionary perspective, such that hedging requirements formed part of its fund raising efforts for new projects begun when the gold price was at the bottom of its cycle. Five years ago, Newcrest hedged 90% of its forecast production. This was necessary to get such projects as Telfer off the ground (Or is that into it? Anyway, don't mention Telfer).
> 
> The accompanying table (provided on Newcrest's website) indicates the level of Newcrest's forward obligations. As you can see, there's some pretty low gold price numbers locked in for some large amounts. As we move into time however, Newcrest's hedge ration drops – to 75% for 06/07, 50% for 07/08 and so on until 10/11 is looking at ratios below 30%.
> 
> www.newcrest.com.au/hedgebook.asp (see attachment below)
> 
> Newcrest does not hedge on a discretionary basis, these were obligations. That is evident in the scaling down of the ratio (as risk would subside as the mine proved successful). This is not based on a gold price view, or the rally to date.
> 
> Newcrest's hedges are of the simple type. The company used to use more complex, option-style hedge transactions back when everyone else did, but not for punting. Management decided the return to simplicity not because the likes of Sons of Gwalia were biting the dust, but because the option-style hedges could not actually provide a known obligation in the future. Everything was dependent upon everything else.
> 
> This meant they couldn't produce a nice simple table like the one above, nor even be able to answer investor questions about hedging obligations. It was all a bit unnerving.
> 
> Counterparties still recommend gold miners hedge some of their production – but then they would. Miners are not so convinced, but then everyone needs insurance. If hedging is treated as insurance, then everybody knows where they stand – shareholders included.*


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## RichKid

Also see this for a discussion of why NCM's hedging was so complex in the past, from CFO magazine, 1Mar06
*The right side of the law:
Looking at complex financing deals with a lawyer's insight has proved a winner for one corporate treasurer.*
http://www.cfoweb.com.au/freearticle.aspx?relId=16931

.... Its failure in 2001 was the catalyst for Chamberlain's return to the mining industry, this time at gold miner Newcrest.

Newcrest CFO Geoff Smith had identified the hedge book as a major problem. "In the mid to late 1990s, gold companies entered into exotic derivatives, and Newcrest ended up with a 'Noah's Ark' of hedge instruments," Chamberlain says. "It started with the practice of selling calls to finance other derivatives, which was manageable at a time of stable gold prices and currency exchange rates in the late 1990s."

By 2001, Newcrest had amassed a hedge book with almost 20 counterparties and about 2400 transactions using between 30 and 40 different types of exchange.

"As the gold price became volatile, the company accounts started to reflect that uncertainty. Newcrest was carrying a lot of risk that was hard to explain to the equity markets. The approach to hedging risk was inconsistent and the whole arrangement was preoccupying far too much of top management's time."

The "unusual" result was that Newcrest performed better when the gold price fell rather than when it rose. "It took quite a while to go through the masses of documentation and modelling," Chamberlain says. "Then it was a question of deciding if we needed to do anything about [this state of affairs]. After a long and arduous series of board and management meetings, it was agreed that we had to simplify the hedge book. We looked for a partner and chose investment banker Goldman Sachs, one of the few with the modelling capability and appetite to take on the credit risk involved.

"It took nine months to put that project together, whereby all the exotic transactions were overlaid and thereby neutralised and in exchange we took on 'plain-vanilla' transactions."

The revamp involved hedging more than 8 million ounces of physical gold against 6.5 million ounces inherent in the under-lying transactions.

"We had to buy 1.5 million ounces of gold to cover the physical underlying change against the existing positions, but we were able to do this without disturbing the market. We had a kicker in that the equity markets pushed up our share price by about a dollar after we completed the simplification," Chamberlain says.

He notes that explaining the company's hedge positions previously accounted for almost two pages of Newcrest's annual report. This can now be done in just a few lines.

"In hindsight, it was important for us to have gone through that process. Approaching the debt markets with a simple hedge book helped us dramatically in restructuring our existing borrowings both through a US private placement and simple bank debt."

One of these restructuring deals was a "quasi-project finance" arrangement with a syndicate of seven banks, backed by a number of financial and operational restrictions. Chamberlain notes that this has since been further restructured into a much simpler borrowing arrangement.

"My role [at Newcrest] is treasury and financial analysis, so perhaps I have a bit more room to move than many other corporate treasurers. The treasury is getting more involved in the operational sides of the business, particularly cash management and capital management," he says.


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## RichKid

A new face, one of the RIO inner sanctum so this guy must be a big name.... and maybe a new era, let's be frank, it can hardly get any worse now can it? 



> Newcrest finds fix-it man in Rio's pool
> 
> By Barry FitzGerald
> SMH May 16, 2006
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...an-in-rios-pool/2006/05/15/1147545261681.html
> 
> NEWCREST has turned to a seasoned mining engineer, born and raised in Broken Hill and now running Rio Tinto's operational and technical excellence centre in London, to kick its troublesome $1.4 billion Telfer gold/copper project in Western Australia into shape.
> 
> He is new managing director Ian Kingsley Smith, 48. He has not come cheap, reflecting the plum position he is giving up within Rio's senior management team of 11 - a pool of talent from which it is likely that Rio will pluck a successor for its current chief, Leigh Clifford, another mining engineer who earned his stripes at Broken Hill.
> 
> Mr Smith will receive a base salary of $1.7 million. In addition, he can receive an annual performance lump sum equal to 50 per cent of that for an "on target" performance and 100 per cent for an "outstanding" performance. He will also be entitled to a long-term incentive under the group's executive share plan, with 165,000 rights to shares initially up for grabs given certain performance hurdles are cleared.
> 
> Mr Smith, who was not available for comment, was yesterday described as a lateral thinker who made his name early in his career by introducing a new mining method at Broken Hill when working for Pasminco's mining division.
> 
> The end result of the new technique (a semi non-entry form of mining using remote-controlled equipment) was that the then struggling mine was able to access high-grade lead ore that otherwise would have been left behind because it was too labour intensive to attack.
> 
> Mr Smith is also well aware of the dangers of underground mining operations. He was general manager of Pasminco's Elura mine in NSW in 1996 when part of the mine collapsed on a Saturday morning.
> 
> No one was injured in the collapse which occurred when a "crown pillar" failed.
> 
> More recently, Mr Smith had stints with WMC at Olympic Dam in South Australia and Rio's Comalco aluminium division in Brisbane. He has a reputation for being a quick and clear thinker, clinical but charming.
> 
> Mr Smith replaces Tony Palmer, who left Newcrest two weeks ago. Mr Palmer's total package in 2005 was $4.25 million. Newcrest's interim managing director, Bryan Davis, will hand over to Mr Smith on August 14 and will resume his position as a non-executive director of the company.
> 
> Mr Davis said yesterday that Newcrest searched both inside and outside the industry for Mr Palmer's replacement, also within and outside of Australia.
> 
> The Telfer project was hit by cost overruns and delays ahead of its start-up in February 2005. More recently, metallurgical issues forced Newcrest to slash its 2006 gold production forecast at Telfer by 100,000 ounces to 700,000 ounces.
> 
> Newcrest's heavily out-of-the-money hedge book is another issue that the market will be looking for comfort on from Mr Smith.


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## Sean K

Looks like they are not going to meet their production target at Telfer AGAIN!

Who is running this organisation, the Marx Brothers. It's a joke. Sitting on one of the most valuable pieces of dirt on the planet and they can't simply dig it out of the ground!

My God, give me a shovel and I'll improve their production rate 2 fold! Aaaaahhhh!!!!


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## moochew78

Down....down....down...she goes

Any thoughts on when this one may turn around?


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## Sean K

Starting to break through $22 resistance levels on to $24 perhaps. Seems to have found new support over the past 2 months. Maybe due to M&A talk everywhere, with this holding the best in ground resource in the country and likely taget of the big goldies. Maybe Newmont could make a bid....


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## Sean K

NCM smashed through $22.00 today settling at $22.50. Higher lows over the past few months and now breaking significant resistance on volume is very positive. 

I was reading their ann report today and see they hve a lazy 59 million oz of gold in the ground. 59 million!!!! Hopefully the new GM can turn it around from recent problems.


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## Sean K

Well, I'm going to ramp this again (in my own objective way)

I realise this is not something most people on this forum look at, as we are generally searching for something under $0.05 which we are hoping will go to $50.00. Well, sorry. Good luck. Good money is made buying quality sound stocks for a decent amount of time (you'll love me for this Realist) that actually MAKE MONEY. 

Over the next couple of years most analysts are bullish POG (my summary, reading all the bullish to gold web sites) so something with 59 million oz of gold to be mined with hedging slowly coming off must be OK. Right? Well, if I was Newmont, or one of those other big goldies, trying to find where my next growth story was going to come from, I would simply bolt on NCM. Done! There's another million oz per year up your sleave times perhaps $1000 oz POG and you have one billion $$ more per year to play with....less costs. 

Rampetty Ramp.......

Seriously, I have held this for a while (bought from $10 to $20) and it's looking like it might be generally heading in the right direction. Up. 

(disclamer: I am a long term gold bull. Not sure why YT!) 

DYOR.


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## bowser

kennas said:
			
		

> I realise this is not something most people on this forum look at, as we are generally searching for something under $0.05 which we are hoping will go to $50.00. Well, sorry. Good luck. Good money is made buying quality sound stocks for a decent amount of time (you'll love me for this Realist) that actually MAKE MONEY.




Most sensible statement that I've seen on ASF for weeks Kennas. Long term NCM looks to be a good buy. If the POG continues upwards current prices will look like a bargain.


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## Sean K

Looking at the 2 year weekly of NCM, it looks to be making some headway in breaking through resistance at $22, which should now be some short term support, with $20 looking pretty solid after that.

Interesting that NCM has held on despite POG being sold off in the lead up to the USA mid terms. My bet is that after the election, the $US will be sold off and POG will increase back through $600. Just a guess though....  

Also, if NCM doesn't start making some acquisitions, then it may be gobbled up itself now that it seems to have gotten over some teething problems at Telfer.


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## Sean K

NCM charging though $23 on the way to $24. Might find the going tough in this range but is riding some pretty sure momentum, with POG looking good to break $600. With all the M&A happening, any rumour or talk about NCM will see this flying.


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## Sean K

Might be getting close to the end of the NCM run unless NEM come out with a bid. Had a great run since bottoming at $19.00. 

Hit $24.00 today. 

Brokers are divided now due to the relative price movement I think, but there's still support there. Targets range from $17    to $28.    

I think the $28.00 valuations are better.   

*ABN Amro* rates the stock as Buy - Target $26.20 (was $24.76). Production for the quarter was a little lower than the broker had expected due to lower grades at Telfer, Cadia Hill and Ridgeway.

The broker notes the company''s copper hedging will be eliminated next year, so earnings may receive a boost if copper prices remain strong.

It sees potential for some share price weakness in the short-term given copper production at Telfer in FY07 has been revised lower.

Valuation has increased to $17.70 from $17.52.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$2.70 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

*Credit Suisse* rates the stock as Neutral - With Telfer copper production forecasts being revised down the broker has cut its earnings estimate for FY07 by 10% to $196m.

The broker notes the issues at the mine are slowly being addressed and the strategic positioning of the company remains good, though it is not as well placed as some competitors to enjoy the current earnings leverage to strong commodity prices.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$0.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

*JP Morgan* rates the stock as Neutral - Lower copper production has been offset by higher gold production, the broker reports. Earnings fall 5% in FY07 and rise 5% in FY08. Guidance was maintained, which the broker still feels is a bit of a stretch for Telfer.

Target rises from $22.50 to $23.00.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference$0.50) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately - 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

*Merrill Lynch* rates the stock as Neutral - Reduced copper production has led to earnings downgrades, but the broker is more confident in gold production, particularly at Telfer. However, the stock is still well-priced.

Current Price is $23.50. Target price not assessed.

*SB Citigroup* rates the stock as Buy, High Risk - Target $28.10 (was 26.83). Group output for the quarter was higher than the broker had forecast, while it notes comments from management indicate operations at Telfer continue to improve.

This improvement is proving to be positive for sentiment, so there is no change to the stock''s position as the broker''s preferred gold stock.

Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$4.60 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

*UBS* rates the stock as Neutral 2 - Q1 production was slightly below the broker due to Telfer, but the broker is pleased that guidance has been maintained, implying no further production problems (even at Telfer).

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$1.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


----------



## Sean K

$24.00 proving tough resistance. 

Gold holding well above $620, NCM down 2%     

Once it breaks through here, $24.00 should be good support for push on to all time highs IMO. 

Sorry to bore you with a blue chip, I know we only really care about companies with a market cap of less than a new house in Woolamaloo.


----------



## Sean K

Fallen over at $24.00 as could have reasonably been predicted. Too much traffic. Gold down.....  

Have to wait for gold to go through $640 for this to go onto to all time highs perhaps..


----------



## Sean K

NCM really strugged at $24.00 and now retracted past $23.00 but just still in the upward channel. This should hopefully provide it with an area to rebound off. Unfortunately a lot of NCMs profit comes from Copper out of Telfer so that has effected it's sp dramatically in the past week.

That resistance is even tougher at $24.00 now, but a clear break though there will be excellent.

Good support between $22.00 and 22.50. Might be a place to top up for me, if copper steadies.


----------



## Sean K

Down a buck all of a sudden at $22.00. If I had any guts I'd buy some more, but   it seems to have broken uptrend now..   

Long term holding here, not trading.


----------



## Sean K

No guts no glory....  

Bounced well off key support at $22.00. 

$24.00 is still going to be a huge hurdle. Come on POG, smash through $640 for Christmas, please..


----------



## traderandy

looking quite strong this morning...

it's up past the $24 mark now.

anyone still hesitant?


----------



## Sean K

traderandy said:
			
		

> looking quite strong this morning...
> 
> it's up past the $24 mark now.
> 
> anyone still hesitant?



Not me Andy, as you might imagine. Most goldies doing well today, leads me to believe the market is punting on POG pushing on through $630+ again. The stocks are leading the gold price.....NCM will still struggle around $24.00 unless POG shines.


----------



## Sean K

Yeaha!!! Could NCM be breaking the $24.50 ish hoodoo voodoo??? Racing away towards all time highs and gold has only just cleared $640 not proven until US market does, whatever it does. I have a gut feeling in my little pinkie that this has been accumulated by a BIG gold miner, taking a stake ready to pounce, and they will have to pay about $30.00 to get control of this now I reckon. Gold, gold to Australia!

(sorry, this is not a speculative 2 cent stock   )


----------



## Sean K

At $25.44 up 4%. Very, very unusual for a blue chip like this to have such a run with limited news. Perhaps there will be news of the inevitable takeover. 

Gold not changed today so what's going on?? 

Who cares....It's my shout ladies and gentleman!


----------



## spitrader1

kennas said:
			
		

> At $25.44 up 4%. Very, very unusual for a blue chip like this to have such a run with limited news. Perhaps there will be news of the inevitable takeover.
> 
> Gold not changed today so what's going on??
> 
> Who cares....It's my shout ladies and gentleman!



bottle of hill of grace thanks kennas

Chip good year just said in the hills AGM that GOLD is the only area they dont produce at rate they would like compared to there size, and if the right fit came up, they would look at it......


----------



## Sean K

Pushing on to all time high which is $27.00.

Breaking $24/25 area was, to quote the great man R. Beneau, just super. Marvelous stuff that! 

Sorry, this is not worth   

 

HOG is in the mail spi!


----------



## Sean K

Have you got that bottle of HOG yet spi,    he he. 

NCM has been a faily good example of support and resistance lines and breakouts etc, if you've followed the thread then you'll see how it has generally perfomed and been bouncing off resistance and support lines everywhere. The green circle is where I thouhg it was a confirmed break from the downward trend and heading back up. 

It has just played to script again by bouncing off support around $24.50ish, and now heading back up towards all time high which seems a real possibility.

POG consolidating between $620-630 providing the impetus for the next run to $640+. 

Of course, who can say whether POG gets smashed tonight because of a careless staement by the Feb, or European banks saying they will dump millions of tons on to market! 

On the other hand, $US might tank, and the Middle East could errupt at any time to halt oil flows and drive people back to the yellow metal again.....

Gold gold! Go NCM!


----------



## Sean K

NCM update, probably just for my own amusement.  : 

Battling hard to breach all time high. Still in the zone to get there, heading towards the green circle. Go the green circle NCM. Go!!!!!!

Anyone else actually own this, or am I on my own?   

This is actually my largest holding now, oh, except for Platinum Asia Fund. Got too much of that.


----------



## Aimjoy

Kennas,

I am also holding Newcrest.  Bought 7,000 shares on 28/11/06 at $24.55 on 100% margin with underlying put option with a strike of $24.50 in place.

Then wrote call option with a strike of $25.00 for expiry tomorrow - looks like I went a bit short and will have to buy it back   

Cheers,
Aimjoy


----------



## Sean K

I've lost about a half a years salary in the past week and I think it's been all in this. It was going so well too until that damn POG went from $640 to $600 in 2 days!   

From $18 to $27 in 5 months and then kazam! Back to $24 in 4 days......My poor head. I think most of the run was actually attributed to takeover rumours that have been circling this since about 1923.....

Can you send that bottle of HOG back to me please Spitrader?? 

Still, on the flip, perhaps another buying opp comming up if POG settles and fights it's way back to $620 and beyond. I hope those EW dudes have it all wrong and we have seen the last of $500s.....

Should be some support at $24.00, along with POG at $600.


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> From $18 to $27 in 5 months and then kazam! Back to $24 in 4 days......My poor head. I think most of the run was actually attributed to takeover rumours that have been circling this since about 1923.....
> 
> .




      On the upside though, if you follow gaps there are a lot of large ones there just begging to be filled.


----------



## Sean K

Kauri said:
			
		

> On the upside though, if you follow gaps there are a lot of large ones there just begging to be filled.



Yeah. I don't think I've seen a stock gap down so much on 3 consecutive days. Maybe there was in May, or the last crash.....


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:
			
		

> Should be some support at $24.00, along with POG at $600.



Has held, but off 2% when POG was steady.

Under $24.00 and I'm short. That will probably coincide with POG dipping under $600.


----------



## spitrader1

kennas said:
			
		

> Has held, but off 2% when POG was steady.
> 
> Under $24.00 and I'm short. That will probably coincide with POG dipping under $600.



sorry kennas, a man such as myself doesnt let a bottle of HOG sit around for too long, if you know what i mean!!


----------



## Sean K

POG up, NCM off 4%....hhhmmm...Something I don't know about I think. Perhaps a downgrade, again. Very unusual price action. Definately no HOG for you spi..


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> POG up, NCM off 4%....hhhmmm...Something I don't know about I think. Perhaps a downgrade, again. Very unusual price action. Definately no HOG for you spi..




   Hopefully not much further...


----------



## spitrader1

kennas said:
			
		

> POG up, NCM off 4%....hhhmmm...Something I don't know about I think. Perhaps a downgrade, again. Very unusual price action. Definately no HOG for you spi..



i just saw that, very strange indeedy


----------



## Sean K

I think my weekly chart gives a similar count to you Kauri.

Maybe a bounce from support lines at $24.00, $21.50 ish, and then $18.00 (hopefully not there)


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:
			
		

> I think my weekly chart gives a similar count to you Kauri.
> 
> Maybe a bounce from support lines at $24.00, $21.50 ish, and then $18.00 (hopefully not there)




Hi Kennas
             Yes, the only thing is if it is a W4 and she falls through the 22.65 W1 then it's back to the drawing board..


----------



## Sean K

Can anyone confirm that 700K shares went through at about 3.14pm, at $25.30, when the stocks trading at $24.30, and what this might be.

Off market buy? 

$17m??

Just curious. Still learning about off market buys and these sorts of anomalies and also - what it might mean!


----------



## Gundini

Feeling for you today Kennas   

What do you make of NCM after the report?

Understand if you don't reply just yet, I know all about the house of pain...

Best wishes


----------



## spitrader1

Gundini said:
			
		

> Feeling for you today Kennas
> 
> What do you make of NCM after the report?
> 
> Understand if you don't reply just yet, I know all about the house of pain...
> 
> Best wishes



kennas away drinking tequila and coronas in me'cico


----------



## Dr Doom

Bit of shocker actually, as indicated in the share price today - down nearly 10%. The report as below - 

"25 January 2007
Newcrest Mining Limited today released its December 2006 Quarterly Report.
  Group cash costs for the quarter were A$384/oz (A$219/oz). The major reason was lower spot copper prices resulting in provisional pricing adjustments
  Telfer power supply disruption resulted in production short fall of 13,000 -15,000oz gold and 500-850t copper
  Telfer supergene Ore Reserve downgraded by approximately 0.5 Moz gold and 19,000t copper. Review of underground reserve estimate to be finalised in July 07 and primary open pit reserve estimate to be finalised in July 08.
  Telfer production guidance revised to 675,000 - 700,000oz gold and 31,000 - 33,000t copper for 2006/07 and 800,000oz gold +/- 5% and 35,000t copper +/-5% in 2007/08.
  Further high grade gold intersections recorded at K2 in Kencana
Group quarterly gold production was 384,285oz (379,701oz) at a cash cost of A$384/oz (A$219/oz). The total cost was A$507/oz (A$348/oz). Group copper production was 22,023t (23,101t)."


----------



## Gundini

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> kennas away drinking tequila and coronas in me'cico




Probably better off anyway, just hope it's the bottom for his sake. 10% does seem harsh all the same.


----------



## bingk6

kennas said:
			
		

> Under $24.00 and I'm short. That will probably coincide with POG dipping under $600.




Hope your short Kennas.


----------



## Dukey

Wow NMC still falling - down to 21.30 so far today.  From high of almost $27 in Dec. Dunno much about this stock or whats behind the fall but...
When`s is gonna stop?   $20 ??  $18 ??
And more importantly - when`s it gonna BOUNCE ???


----------



## justjohn

NCM has a history of volitility Feb 06-March 06 dropped from $24.80 to $18.20 then in a 2/3 week period May-June 06 dipped again from $26.70 to $20.50 so holders must be use to this bouncing around so 10%is nothing to this mob  eventually will :jump:  :bounce: back again but when :dunno:  :aus:


----------



## Sean K

This was almost half expected when it fell through 24. I didn ´t short it, as I should have at that point. Maybe if I was in the country, but who ´s to say.... 

I sold a third last week before I left so saved some profits, and my average price is about 18 now, so safe ish for the minute. If I was just holding this on the charts, I think I would have folded until it picked back up the up trend. That was about 25.50, I think...If I was able to, I would probably pick some more up now it ´s fallen so far. Bigger players would be looking closely now I reckon, just based on past media speculation of a takeover. 

I ´ve only quickly read the ann but can ´t see what the real drama is. Is it the potential write down of reserves? I need to look into it more. 

Lucky uranium is still going up!!   

Thanks for the concern above guys. I ´m glad I wasn ´t watching the screen. It ´s still my biggest holding, but mainly due to the great run it ´s had the past 2 years.  

Now, back to my Corona and Tequila....


----------



## rico01

NCM looking good for monday with the gold price up


----------



## Sean K

NCM due to report tomorrow and I expect the foreshaddowed downgrade to weigh on the sp. This may be factored into the sp already, but any further surprises may cause some pain. They have a solid history now of consistantly downgrading production and reserves and I expect this to continue. So, I've lightened my load one again on these, just in case. Lonsec recently took NCM out of their Model Portfolio, which has influenced me as well. They have done a pretty good job over the last few years of picking winners. Still holding a few however, for speccie potential takeover upside.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like the bad news was factored in or POG has been more influential. Up 2% since I sold some yesty.   Might have to get back in again....  LOL.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:
			
		

> Looks like the bad news was factored in or POG has been more influential. Up 2% since I sold some yesty.   Might have to get back in again....  LOL.



Classic. Up 5% since I sold now. 'Sell the rumour, buy the fact'   They announced a 50% drop in NPAT...  The market is a fickle beast.


----------



## pacer

It was probably your shares I bought the other day Kennas...cheers mate....lol

Might sell EOD for a tidy profit, or some atleast to lock in profits....maybe expectations of a takeover are in the wings.


----------



## pacer

Yep....sold all cfd Longs today inthe last mad minute....too good to give the profits away tomorrow....might buy back tomorrow...ya Know how it is...

Kennas...the market is definitely a fickle gal....

Most stocks have had low volume into the new year...everyone is scared of a pullback...jump in on virtualy anything and you will have a good year....and an even better one if you go short after May....IMO......lol


Kennas is a champion........thanks for your input Kennas..you are a champ...and Im' definitely not being sarcatic....you've taught me heaps, especialy graph work....

Love you all for your opinions....hope mine help you too....

Ps I'm heavily into SLA if anyone wants a look...the graph says it all....lol....later guys.....


----------



## pacer

Well that was a stroke of luck/genious....feel soory for whoever bought mine 2 mins before close yesterday.....NOT!

I shoulda reversed my position....it was a CFD trade, Damn!....going fishing now...lol


----------



## pacer

Ok I'm back in for a peek on this one and lihir, considering gold looks to be bouncing off its 3 year bottom uptrend line. If it proves itself I'll buy more over the next few days.

dyor


----------



## pacer

Proving to be a winner...up over 2% on a down day....monday will tell all.


----------



## Sean K

pacer said:
			
		

> Proving to be a winner...up over 2% on a down day....monday will tell all.



Might be linked to the NEM takeover rumour in the US. This will put the focus on other potential takeover targets too. Wouldn't be surprised to see interest here again. Still, I've been waiting for a takeover of this for about 3 years!!


----------



## pacer

Luvley Kennas....I held through yesterdays drop, and bought more at close..

Have bit of cash to throw at the small caps now, but the graph, indicators and the price of gold are compelling me to hold for the next week or so....

I just hope the march correction was early....with the China thing......I'd hate to get caught long..................lol

PS still luv ya posts and following a few on the sidelines.


----------



## pacer

It rocks....long DFD's..............any chartists are welcome here.............copper and gold are up...following closely..


----------



## Sean K

pacer said:


> It rocks....long DFD's..............any chartists are welcome here.............copper and gold are up...following closely..



POG being assisted by Iran-Oil-Inflation last few days lifting most goldies including this. Bounced well off $20-21 support, and now hitting $24 resistance, just as POG hitting 660 resistance also. Probably linked. This has recovered well, after the downgrade, helped by NEM takeover rumours as well. Must be happy at the moment pacer? Wouldn't be surprised for it to stall at this level along with POG, depending on the Iranian situation. If it flares up (war  ) then the Oil-Inflation-Gold link should drive it up. On the other hand, if the Poms are returned without a scratch.....  (did I just put a frown after that? LOL)


----------



## Sean K

Now rain has stops ops at Telfer for a few days.....oh well, didn't factor that one into the chart....


----------



## pacer

Bailed on Friday.....Happy as to watch and wait for another entry point and slap the profits into some small caps, and go fishing for a few days in this awesome West OZ weather.

You can't win them all Kennas, but it's nice getting a run of winners now and then.....hope you go well mate.


----------



## Sean K

pacer said:


> Bailed on Friday.....Happy as to watch and wait for another entry point and slap the profits into some small caps, and go fishing for a few days in this awesome West OZ weather.
> 
> You can't win them all Kennas, but it's nice getting a run of winners now and then.....hope you go well mate.



I've just got a few left in this. Sold 2/3 when it went dropped through 24. Now it's back around there, I might as well have held. Didn't expect it to recover so well. Lonsec took this out of it's model portfolio so I have put more money into LHG instead for the moment. Still waiting for that takeover offer from...???


----------



## Ang

This stock has come as a penant down with a possible down ward price of $16. Has any one had any experience with Penants as this seems to be a large downward target. 
Kind regards
Ang


----------



## mildew79

Ang said:


> This stock has come as a penant down with a possible down ward price of $16. Has any one had any experience with Penants as this seems to be a large downward target.
> Kind regards
> Ang




patterns are much more reliable if they are in the same direction of the underlying market. slim chance of down pennant in an advancing bull market with rising commodity prices. just my experience.


----------



## dlineinvestor

NCM, some flexing happening here, maybe the market know something.
Any more soft US data released could send gold higher.
Perhaps the speeding train is approaching a bend.

Good volume for the move up today. 2,536,228


----------



## Holdon

A nice consumption white candle, but on a down trending stock looking for a break you would have to go much further to play that game Dline....the trend is your friend....maybe?

Needs a break above $23 to be a hit....maybe....perhaps even insto's have an interest on a takeover and have been knocking it back a little.....sometimes graphs read like a book....hopefully not a horror story if you go long too soon....lol


----------



## dlineinvestor

Holdon said:


> A nice consumption white candle,




Never heard of a consumption candle pattern, Closing today at 22.70 makes it .30 away from your breakout target, glad you agree with my analysis hardon. :iagree: :bananasmi


----------



## Holdon

Belittle me if you wish droneoninevitable, but you may pay with your simplistic attitude.

If you go long tomorrow I wish you luck....use the force Dline, use the force, that's what happened today; traders are out of their short positions but it may fall further.

Like I said, sometimes it's like reading a book the more you read it the better it is.

And eventually you can tell the story out loud without bumbling through it.

When you have had a spanking you should refocus and get back to square one....re-read them Psychology of trading books..they are even more important than learning candles...IMO

Looks very FAKE to me, extremely fake!     a fake in it's purest, but I may be wrong, maybe, not one I would play anyway.


CAUTION MY FRIEND.....anyone else agree?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Holdon said:


> Looks very FAKE to me, extremely fake! a fake in it's purest, but I may be wrong, maybe, not one I would play anyway.
> 
> 
> CAUTION MY FRIEND.....anyone else agree?




Gold stocks generally are taking a beating again, & NCM are having water shortage problems at their Cadia mine. Don't know how much this will affect production but should be factored in for miners in NSW Vic & Qld these days until the drought breaks.

Short term, gold in a downtrend, weakness.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Holdon said:


> If you go long tomorrow I wish you luck....use the force Dline, use the force, that's what happened today; traders are out of their short positions but it may fall further.
> 
> When you have had a spanking you should refocus and get back to square one....re-read them Psychology of trading books..they are even more important than learning candles...IMO




Holdon up a little late were we ? Some of us have a life.
If you RE-READ my post...... it was comments on the day's price action for NCM, "any one agree"
Where did I mention that I was going long ???? and who says I have had a spanking ?????
I suggest YOU re-read your psychology books that will help curb the level of pessimissim and arogance in your life. 
But only one can only hope


----------



## Holdon

Yes up late....apologies Dline for over exuberant post.....just get my name right next time.......


----------



## Sean K

A lot of stocks pushing up at the moment, but this chart looks more interesting than most. (and not just because I'm holding )

Been consolidating for some time between 22 and 24 which has formed up to be quite some resistance. Looks to be in an ascending triangle now and the indicators are saying 'look at me'. LOL

Recently the MD stated they were looking at buying out the hedge gook, as LHG did. LHG did it through a rights issue at quite a discount to the current sp, so perhaps people are getting set for that. There's also the constant takeover spec which has been going on for the last 6 years, at least.

Potential breakout at the moment, but 24 will be tough.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> A lot of stocks pushing up at the moment, but this chart looks more interesting than most. (and not just because I'm holding )
> 
> Been consolidating for some time between 22 and 24 which has formed up to be quite some resistance. Looks to be in an ascending triangle now and the indicators are saying 'look at me'. LOL
> 
> Recently the MD stated they were looking at buying out the hedge gook, as LHG did. LHG did it through a rights issue at quite a discount to the current sp, so perhaps people are getting set for that. There's also the constant takeover spec which has been going on for the last 6 years, at least.
> 
> Potential breakout at the moment, but 24 will be tough.



Broken through 24 on Friday so it's a breakout. I would anticipate some technical buying here, especially if POG remains above $660. See Ascending Triangle thread for more detail.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7495&highlight=ascending+triangle


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Broken through 24 on Friday so it's a breakout. I would anticipate some technical buying here, especially if POG remains above $660. See Ascending Triangle thread for more detail.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7495&highlight=ascending+triangle



Holding for the moment, but with markets at highs, holding breath. In all probabilities $24.00 should now be support, but it's just a probability.


----------



## Sean K

Ann out regarding the much telegraphed Fiji purchase. Looks like an interesting long term tie up with some big players. Not sure of the prospectivity of the area yet. Need to read up on it.

*DJ Australia's Newcrest Signs MOU For Fiji Copper-Gold JV*
19/07/2007 09:21AM AEST  

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Australia's Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said Thursday it is close to an agreement with two major Japanese companies to establish a copper and gold exploration joint venture in Fiji. 

Newcrest has signed a memorandum of understanding with Nittetsu Mining Co. Ltd (1515.TO) and Mitsubishi Materials Corp. (5711.TO) to launch a joint venture hunting for copper and gold in the Namosi region of Fiji. 

Initially Nittetsu will have a 71.94% stake in the joint venture and MMC 28.06%, with Newcrest to be given the chance to win a 65% stake over four or five years by funding exploration. 

Newcrest, Australia's biggest gold miner, is to manage the exploration activities in cooperation with Nittetsu and MMC. 

The Namosi tenement is 30 kilometers west of Suva and Newcrest said it remains a highly prospective large copper-gold porphyry mineralized system.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

kennas said:


> Holding for the moment, but with markets at highs, holding breath. In all probabilities $24.00 should now be support, but it's just a probability.





Kennas,

I just joined in on the party. Today appears good. No real resistance today to speak of. Colaboration with other companies can only be a good thing for NCM.


----------



## Sean K

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kennas,
> 
> I just joined in on the party. Today appears good. No real resistance today to speak of. Colaboration with other companies can only be a good thing for NCM.



Support at 24 tested twice now and it bounced off it nicely yesterday reconfirming break out of sideways movement. However, I think 25 is resistance as it's made 3 attempt at it since breaking 24 and failed. ALso some hang over from Dec/Jan. So, I'm not counting too many chickens yet. Gold breaking 680 at the moment, so NCM should still find support Monday, pending dramatic gold sell off later. 

More upside might come from any final decisions on gold hedging buy out. Time to ann that now while gold looks to be heading higher.

Also, there's some more M&A action in the gold sector in the US/Cananda which might provide positive sentiment for NCM, as the perennial takeover spec.



> On Thursday Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI, NYSE: AUY) announced that it has filed a formal $3.06 billion cash-and-stock bid for Meridian Gold (TSX: MNG, NYSE: MDG), and also signed a definitive business combination agreement with Northern Orion Resources (TSX: NNO, AMEX: NTO).


----------



## Sean K

The production figures look OK. This might be the first time they have come through with something that wasn't a surprise to the downside. Maybe. Lets see how Mr M finds it. Gold down slightly so,


----------



## 56gsa

K  you'd be please with how Mr M has taken to this news - production up and cash costs down - certainly first time i can remember...  could now push on to test the $27 highs??


----------



## Sean K

I sold my CFD on this last week to take some profits, but am considering another now. Looks like $24-24.50 support holding OK. $25 resistance forming up again through.


----------



## Sean K

$24.00 still being respected. POG holding above 660...I'm going to enter again expecting this to hold and continue on, having broken that long term resistance. Parachute donned.  I'll probably be out the door pretty quick if that potential H&S materialises.


----------



## Sean K

H&S wasn't confirmed, so looking at this again for a short term trade.

This has been going sideways since Jan 06 and is threatening to break all time highs on quite a large ascending triangle. This was in the ascending v descending triangle thread, but thought I'd bump it here, becuase it's getting more interesting. I'm still holding ordinary shares, but sold a long CFD on it at the start of this turbulance to stay safe. This has held up surprisingly well, and I'm looking at another trade on technicals. Clearly breaking $26.00 and you'd expect the build up over the past 18 months to release this for a run. Still at risk of falling over of course, and a break down through $24.00 would put it back in the sin bin. 

Thoughts? Disagreements?


----------



## Sean K

Recent developments for NCM have been more positive. They seem to be having a good run at Telfer after years of disappointments, the Fiji JV is promising, and if they clear their hedge book, then it could be a boost in the long run, after some short term pain during the fund raising.   

Has been consolidating above $24.00 support and hanging in the longer term ascending triangle. Interesting that a descending triangle has now formed within the larger picture with $24.00 as the base. With POG cracking $700, there's more probability of a break up IMO, and test of the all time high. Short term risk is still general market conditions of course. Breaking down through $24 and would have to re-evaluate. 

(holding)


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Recent developments for NCM have been more positive. They seem to be having a good run at Telfer after years of disappointments, the Fiji JV is promising, *and if they clear their hedge book, then it could be a boost in the long run,* after some short term pain during the fund raising.



 The worst kept secret in the gold world has surfaced, with NCM going to clear the hedge book through a rights issue at quite a nice discount!  However, like LHG, it'll probably take a short term hit I think with the dilution. Unless POG keeps running perhaps.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Has been consolidating above $24.00 support and hanging in the longer term ascending triangle. Interesting that a descending triangle has now formed within the larger picture with $24.00 as the base. With POG cracking $700, there's more probability of a break up IMO, and test of the all time high. (holding)



I think the fed decision may trigger a breakout here. If it's .25 or lower, then it may not be triggered, but .50 and we might see a break to all time highs. Great long term ascending triangle. The 'potential' breakout can't get too much closer really. Risk to this is now fed not lowering rates at all.


----------



## vishalt

Yeah NCM is looking like gold lol! (NO PUN INTENDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Are there any other Australian gold stocks worth looking at? All I can think of is Lihir Gold & Oxiana, but they're slow!


----------



## Sean K

vishalt said:


> Yeah NCM is looking like gold lol! (NO PUN INTENDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
> 
> Are there any other Australian gold stocks worth looking at? All I can think of is Lihir Gold & Oxiana, but they're slow!



Check the gold stock information and comparison thread for a start. Then go to the threads. 

I note in the US news right now that a .25 cut is more likely. I think this is factored into POG, so gold could come off a little. Might depend on the language used by BB.


----------



## vishalt

Holy Jesus, 

NEWCREST IS GOING TO BALLISTIC AFTER THAT RATE CUT. 

Whoever got in this ride is one lucky MOFO!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Interesting market depth this morning. 

Well, interesting to holders anyway. 

Someone playing games perhaps?


----------



## vishalt

It's happening to all shares ... BHP is showing an open of $50, CSL $111, we all know thats not gonna happen lolol


----------



## Sean K

vishalt said:


> It's happening to all shares ... BHP is showing an open of $50, CSL $111, we all know thats not gonna happen lolol



What the? Some mug punter is bidding 9.7m @ $50.05 for BHP. Probably my mum. What's goin on? Is it April 1?


----------



## imajica

who would be buying 1/2 billion dollars worth?

even a large managed fund wouldn't buy that much! or at one time


----------



## Sean K

imajica said:


> who would be buying 1/2 billion dollars worth?
> 
> even a large managed fund wouldn't buy that much! or at one time



Perhaps it's PRC?

I see that they have started looking at acquisitions recently. BHP and NCM are both within their budget.


----------



## vishalt

Remember the time the Futures Exchange was broken so people couldn't sell? Well I hope its broken this time so people can ONLY BUY!


----------



## Sean K

Is this a cunning way for institutions to get the bids raised, get a gap up, and sell the open to make a killing?


----------



## vishalt

yeah pretty much, happens each morning, but they come down dramatically as the market nears the open


----------



## Sean K

vishalt said:


> yeah pretty much, happens each morning, but they come down dramatically as the market nears the open



This may be different. Something about futures expiry. This should be in it's own thread probably. Might move it.



> DJ SFE Warns Of Price Volatility On Australian Share Market20/09/2007 08:55AM AEST
> 
> SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Sydney Futures Exchange, part of ASX Ltd. (ASX.AU), warned late Wednesday that the expiry of the September SPI 200 index futures contract could cause "unexpected levels of price volatility" when the Australian share market opens Thursday.
> 
> In a statement, the SFE said circumstances particular to the September contract have led to large futures positions being accumulated.
> 
> "Traders have advised that they may seek to reduce their exposures by permitting futures positions to expire and by trading out of physical equities during the opening auction on the day of expiry," it said.
> 
> "As a result, SFE wishes to advise traders that the aforementioned market operations have the potential to lead to a much larger level of liquidity being provided in physical equity transactions during Thursday's ASX opening price auction than is usually the case.
> 
> "This could lead to unexpected levels of price volatility - traders who are unwilling to accept this price risk may look to exit positions before this," it said.
> 
> September futures expire at 0200 GMT.
> 
> The S&P/ASX 200 index last traded at 6356.1 points.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> I think the fed decision may trigger a breakout here. If it's .25 or lower, then it may not be triggered, but .50 and we might see a break to all time highs. Great long term ascending triangle. The 'potential' breakout can't get too much closer really. Risk to this is now fed not lowering rates at all.



.50 and breakout. Noice! 

Not sure if it's sustainable, we need some consolidation IMO for this to be healthy. I hope to see a flag or pennant form here with support at $26.50 holding at whcih time I will top up a few. 

Still cautious of overall market sentiment smashing all stocks....



> *Gold price to continue climb: Newcrest*
> September 23, 2007 - 12:19PM
> 
> Newcrest Mining Ltd boss Ian Smith forecast the gold price will continue climbing over the next two years after hitting a 28-year high last week.
> 
> Mr Smith's comment came after Newcrest two weeks ago began a rights issue to raise $2 billion to close out its gold hedging contracts, repay a gold loan and reduce debt.
> 
> Mr Smith confirmed the move to close out the hedge book was predicated on a belief the gold price would climb.
> 
> "We're fairly confident especially over the next two years all the fundamentals are there for gold to move," Mr Smith told ABC's Inside Business.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> .50 and breakout. Noice!
> 
> Not sure if it's sustainable, we need some consolidation IMO for this to be healthy. I hope to see a flag or pennant form here with support at $26.50 holding at whcih time I will top up a few.
> 
> Still cautious of overall market sentiment smashing all stocks....



We've got a bit of a pennant forming but with POG correcting looks like it will be broken to the downside. Support between $26-27, with what should be worst case $24, during this long term uptrend run, unless something dramatic happens with US economy/USD etc.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Kennas,

You have done well with this one. Thanks for the commentary. I shall be watching to see what weakness creeps in.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> We've got a bit of a pennant forming but with POG correcting looks like it will be broken to the downside. Support between $26-27, with what should be worst case $24, during this long term uptrend run, unless something dramatic happens with US economy/USD etc.



Well, gold hasn't corrected as much as I anticipated/guessed. Seems to be holding above $730 ish. If POG does consolidate above this level perhaps the pennant, which looks to have formed pretty nicely, will break to the up? Just have to wait and see what POG does I suppose. Looks positive so far though. POG breaking down to $690 ish, might see it back to $26/7 ish, $24 worst case perhaps...


----------



## Sean K

Longer term view of the breakout and consolidation. Nice pennant formed here, perhaps some accumulation. Spot POG breaking $750 and COMEX almost $760...HUI and XAU continuing break. Must some more consolidation shortly. Maybe.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Well, gold hasn't corrected as much as I anticipated/guessed. Seems to be holding above $730 ish. If POG does consolidate above this level perhaps the pennant, which looks to have formed pretty nicely, will break to the up? Just have to wait and see what POG does I suppose. Looks positive so far though. POG breaking down to $690 ish, might see it back to $26/7 ish, $24 worst case perhaps...



Looks like it might be breaking up for whatever reason. 

Still has to clear 29.50..........

Then, I have no idea.....


----------



## Sean K

1120 [Dow Jones] Newcrest (NCM.AU) up 1.5% at A$29.08, hits A$29.15 after forming matching lows at yesterday's A$28.39 trough. Market relieved Telfer on track. Still some wariness of potential short-term weakness in gold, amid U.S. recession fears. But U.S. dollar weakness should keep gold above major support at US$720.70. Gold might have bottomed last night, with former resistance at US$747.65 holding on closing basis. As for Newcrest's chart, the picture couldn't be better. A$28.39 low confirmed support from recent bullish pennant pattern, which targets A$34.30. There's also the major bullish triangle pattern, triggered in September, which targets A$34.47. Major support now A$28.39. (DWR)


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Looks like it might be breaking up for whatever reason.
> 
> Still has to clear 29.50..........
> 
> Then, I have no idea.....



Breaking up, all time intraday high touching $30.27, needs to close above 29.50 for confirmation still. Hopefully those pennant targets get hit, but I'm still nervous of a rapid US sell off, so not adding any more to my position right now.

(delayed chart not showing the break yet)


----------



## Sean K

LGL and NCM running away with the flight to safety and gold certainty. 

NCM now consolidating just under $34.00 which was a TA price target from the breakout from the last consolidation. I wouldn't be surprised for some consolidation now between here and $28-$30, which might equate to natural consolidation with POG. 

My only regret is that I have expected more consolidation sooner and I have not made the most of this seemingly obvious run to ath's.


----------



## Sean K

I'll just continue my little monologue here. 



> 1512 [Dow Jones] Newcrest (NCM.AU) down 1.8% at A$32.80, hits A$32.55 in thin trading after setting record high of A$33.95 in early trade. With spot gold strong - now US$808.90 after hitting 28-year high of US$811.65 overnight - Newcrest should also be well supported, given its recent unwinding of gold hedge and cheap PE rating versus global peers, which gives takeover potential from Newmont or Barrick Gold. *Daily chart has formed bearish key reversal pattern*, suggesting a few days of weakness possible. However, there's no need for alarm while it remains above daily uptrend line and Oct. 31 trough A$30.88. Traders can stay long with trailing stop below A$30.88, *targeting bullish pennant target at A$35.00*. (DWR)




Bearish key reversal pattern? Has rejected $34.00 ish a couple of times, but key reversal? 

The target from the pennant was $34.00 ish, which was hit. 

Time for some consolidation back to those support lines perhaps, but with POG running through $820....


----------



## nizar

kennas said:


> Bearish key reversal pattern? Has rejected $34.00 ish a couple of times, but key reversal?
> 
> The target from the pennant was $34.00 ish, which was hit.
> 
> Time for some consolidation back to those support lines perhaps, but with POG running through $820....




Well I agree with you, target from pennant was hit.
But damn, that pennant/flagpole looks so textbook ey... Always the case in hindsight though 

POG $824 now 

Reminds me of the January-April days of last year. Damn those were good times. THen along came May


----------



## Sean K

Ugly double top formed, a break through $32 gives me a target of $28. This may coincide with a possible correction in POG. POG breaking down through $790 may precipitate it. 

Having said that, I'm expecting the Fed to lower rates in Mid Dec which will support POG and may even be the impitus for the next up leg. Or, it may be factored in...

I'm long long NCM and LGL but am considering shorting POG and maybe a CFD on NCM as a hedge. Any other suggestion on how I can save and/or make money welcome.


----------



## Sean K

nizar said:


> Well I agree with you, target from pennant was hit.
> But damn, that pennant/flagpole looks so textbook ey... Always the case in hindsight though



This was called before the break on 10 Oct. :



kennas said:


> If POG does consolidate above this level perhaps the pennant, which looks to have formed pretty nicely, will break to the up.



And I did trade it. : See blog.  

Haven't taken profits though, so who knows if it's going to be a good investment.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Ugly double top formed, a break through $32 gives me a target of $28. This may coincide with a possible correction in POG. POG breaking down through $790 may precipitate it.



Well, POG hasn't broken down but NCM looks to be dipping just under $32 intraday possibly confirming double top. Will be shorting it on confirmation EOD.


----------



## M34N

Anyone got any news on the supposed "media report that it could be the next big takeover target"? According to Sky News this was the reason for it's 2% rise today but its nothing compared with its lows of $28.99 from just over 2 weeks ago!


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> Anyone got any news on the supposed "media report that it could be the next big takeover target"? According to Sky News this was the reason for it's 2% rise today but its nothing compared with its lows of $28.99 from just over 2 weeks ago!



Could have been the reason for the outperformance the past few days. Up 10% yesterday, one of it's biggest daily rises I think. Damn I wish I could post a chart. You should see the smile on my face...he he  I have been predicting an NCM and LGL merger if one of the big goldies don't take either of them before hand. With POG running they may have missed an oportunity.


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> Anyone got any news on the supposed "media report that it could be the next big takeover target"? According to Sky News this was the reason for it's 2% rise today but its nothing compared with its lows of $28.99 from just over 2 weeks ago!



This rumour was reported all over the place the past few days, but like the last 38 previous rumours I suspect it to die down. (fingers crossed for a takeover though)

One from Mineweb:



> *Newcrest, Australia's last big gold gun a takeover target? *
> 
> The rumour machine cranked up in the holiday lull today to claim that Newcrest, the only surviving Australian-controlled gold producer of size, was in the gunsights of one or all of the three big international producers already operating in the country.



Chart wise, it's been running pretty close to plan. The double top identified earlier played out and it almost hit the target before POG broke out. Now, with POG breaking up again, perhaps this little pennant will play out? I'm not sure how much more gold has to run in the short term though. I think a US interest rate reduction (25 pts) is factored in now and the Iran thing will blow over. And I don't think oil can stay at these levels for too much longer. All these factors may mean POG hits a wall shortly and consolidates for a while. Maybe. So, while there is potential for gold upside with maybe a 50 point reduction, Middle East boiling over, and any oil shocks, I think the short term upside here is more from M&A speculation.


----------



## M34N

Hey kennas,

Yeah this one has been a real gem lately, I proudly bought into this at $29.40 a few weeks back, needless to say I'm happy with its rise! 

Strangely, this stock is now dearer than NAB shares, and is more expensive now than BHP (although by 8 cents only). Who would of picked that a month ago?

The volume has been extremely high again today, but I think it may be time to take profits on this, its had too big of a run lately and with the market the way it is lately, not worth the downside risk.


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> Hey kennas,
> 
> Yeah this one has been a real gem lately, I proudly bought into this at $29.40 a few weeks back, needless to say I'm happy with its rise!
> 
> Strangely, this stock is now dearer than NAB shares, and is more expensive now than BHP (although by 8 cents only). Who would of picked that a month ago?
> 
> The volume has been extremely high again today, but I think it may be time to take profits on this, its had too big of a run lately and with the market the way it is lately, not worth the downside risk.



Good work on the buy M34N (funny name that). Any profit's a good profit, so if you lock it in good stuff. I've held this for over 6 years and been buying and selling on the way. Haven't taken any off the table for some time though, as I've thought the longer term rise in POG was a pretty high probability. The recent run in POG looks pretty sharp to me, although the semi log chart posted in the gold thread shows that it's just trending up nicely and may not be overbought. I'm still holding on for the takeover at a 30% premium and subsequent bidding war....

PS, in regard to being 'more expensive' I think you need to look at market caps to judge that, not just the sp. Plus, 'more expensive' infers value. Might have to look at forward p/e and the like to start talking value.


----------



## Timoshev

Am I right to think earnings will be up following the dehedging - and could give things a wee kick?  When is the next finanicial report?


----------



## Sean K

Timoshev said:


> Am I right to think earnings will be up following the dehedging - and could give things a wee kick?  When is the next finanicial report?



Now they've cleared the hedge book, you could rightly assume that profits will be significantly enhanced by the leap in POG. If cash costs were around US$200 for the group and they had $500 ish locked into their long term contracts and it's now at $900, that is more than double the profit. I have just plucked these figures as an example and am trying to find the facts. It's MC is running away at the moment and p/e must be looking toppy, but I suppose that's just due to recent POG movements, and takeover rumour. Might be too late for a major to take it now....


----------



## Sean K

Gold flying and NCM slides off 3%.  

Going out in sympathy with the market, profit taking, or increased Telfer costs a concern? Those costs are a little concerning to me as I was thinking that the new CEO had turned things around. Time to start using both sides of the writing pad NCM!


----------



## kengaikl

kennas said:


> Gold flying and NCM slides off 3%.
> 
> Going out in sympathy with the market, profit taking, or increased Telfer costs a concern? Those costs are a little concerning to me as I was thinking that the new CEO had turned things around. Time to start using both sides of the writing pad NCM!




I thought today it will be only of only few stocks to rise. Imagine if the price of gold actually fell instead of breaking record prices they'll probably be down 10%

Crazy times we are in.


----------



## 56gsa

anyone hear the story behind todays rise - only a presentation released which wouldn't be enough in itself...


----------



## Sean K

56gsa said:


> anyone hear the story behind todays rise - only a presentation released which wouldn't be enough in itself...



Gold rebounded strongly from yesterday's blip after the IMF may have been approved to sell some gold or something. 

LGL ran away too, up 6% ish. 

I didn't hear any takeover rumours that usually drive this. 

(maybe because I was on the golf course all day )


----------



## 56gsa

thanks kennas - 6% doesn't exactly equate to the gold increase - suggests maybe people are seeing gold run much higher perhaps.

broker sentiment not exactly brimming with confidence on this at these levels (targets range from $30 to $42) - but they're probably still to revise their gold forecasts



> Merrill Lynch  20-Feb-08  1  Buy, High Risk  $41.00  7.9%
> Profit of $207.9m was in line with the broker's forecast so there is no change to its positive view given the outlook of production growth and reserve increases.
> 
> JP Morgan  20-Feb-08  3  Neutral  $36.50  - 3.9%
> It cost a lot more to close out the hedge book than the broker anticipated, undermining an otherwise good operating result. And there still some more forward sales to kill before September.
> The broker has nevertheless raised FY08 earning by 9% and the target from $28 to $36.50 which, although unstated, look's like a gold price catch up more than anything else. Beware the A$.
> 
> UBS  20-Feb-08  1  Buy  $42.00  10.5%
> Operationally the result was in line with the broker's forecast and to reflect a one-off tax benefit the broker has lifted its estimates by around 4%.
> The growth outlook supports the broker's positive rating and there is no change to its price target.
> 
> Credit Suisse  20-Feb-08  3  Neutral  $39.00  2.6%
> First half FY08 operating net profit for Newcrest Mining was reported as $207.9m, and the company appears to be on track across FY08 guidance according to the analysts.
> Credit Suisse believes the company is seeking acquisitions and the broker has made no further changes to operating earnings forecasts or valuation at this stage.
> 
> Deutsche Bank  20-Feb-08  3  Hold  $32.20  - 15.3%
> The benefit derived fom closing out hedges has been undermined by the cost of doing so, and there's more to come. Thus the broker retaines Hold. Developments at Cadia and indicated M&A provide some upside.
> The broker has reduced earnings in the short term but pushed them out in the long term. Target falls from $34.30 to $32.20.
> 
> ABN Amro  20-Feb-08  3  Hold  $30.85  - 18.8%
> Target $30.85 (was $30.11). Earnings were a little above the broker's forecast and results in a 5% increase in its full year estimates.
> While the growth outlook appears good the broker retains its view the stock is fair value at current levels, so there is no change to its Hold rating.
> 
> Macquarie  20-Feb-08  3  Neutral  $34.00  - 10.5%
> The highlight for the broker is the strengthening of Newcrest's balance sheet, with little gearing and a reduction in the hedge book. The broker admits it has underestimated the company's appeal and is still below consensus on forward gold prices, but Neutral retained on the valuation.


----------



## Sean K

56gsa said:


> thanks kennas - 6% doesn't exactly equate to the gold increase - suggests maybe people are seeing gold run much higher perhaps.



Yes, agree to some extent. However, these things overreact to gold going extreme levels one way or the other too. Gold down 2%, I think NCM/LGL fall 4-6% with it, pending other usual downgrades. It's an odd correlation. You may be correct with the perception of further rises though. The bounce off 930 ish might have been the trigger for punters to stay long. Now need 945 to hold and NCM should have another good one. Imagine if NCM and LGL had have been bringing out upgrades??


----------



## 56gsa

kennas said:


> Now need 945 to hold and NCM should have another good one. Imagine if NCM and LGL had have been bringing out upgrades??



Well gold testing 960 .. probably see NCM drop 4% tomorrow!!  If not could well crack the $40 for an all-time record high.  Also watching SBM with interest tomorrow too - missed buying in again at 82...  further down the track if you want a reserve upgrade SBM are expected to release one in their march quarterly report


----------



## refined silver

NCM hasn't yet cleared the hedgebook. Still 900,000 oz remaining, to be cleared by Sept 08. If POG keeps going, it may cost an awful more than they budgeted.

Every $100 rise in POG is almost $100m further in the red on the remaining hedges.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40787


----------



## ShareIt

56gsa said:


> Well gold testing 960 .. probably see NCM drop 4% tomorrow!!  If not could well crack the $40 for an all-time record high.  Also watching SBM with interest tomorrow too - missed buying in again at 82...  further down the track if you want a reserve upgrade SBM are expected to release one in their march quarterly report




Gold hits $970, what's the outlook for NCM in the next couple of days? We did have a big drop yesterday... but it found support on the breakout of the triangle... this looks to test $40 I think


----------



## ShareIt

Check out the volume on NCM in the first 20 min, has passed previous day already!


----------



## Sean K

I'm excited too ShareIt, but lets keep it real please. 

Isn't really running any better than it did a couple of days ago. 

I think gold has some more to run with the US more than likely going to lower rates again so there's some more to go here perhaps. Wish they'd bring out some good news for a change. Or, Newmont offer a nice premium. I've been waiting 4 years for that...


----------



## Rockety

Thursday (the big red one) was certainly interesting watching NCM-intra. Was an aggressive bidder putting in bids for 16,550 shares and 9,330 shares, keeping the price up for almost 3 hours between 37,500 and  37,200. Maybe he knew something or? Really no idea, but he always missed the big sell off waves and managed to push the bid side up (max number of shares he received was 1-2k, but that happened a few times thou), mainting price above/near support level (really wondering where could have NCM fallen without him). Funny thing was when he "retired", NCM fell. As a noobie, could a more experienced tell me what woulda been his point in this?


----------



## Sean K

Unusual for NCM to be outperforming LGL so much today. May be some more T/O rumours supporting it, but I haven't seen them yet. Any other ideas? Gold hasn't run that much today has it? On a down down makes me sus.

One of the brokers had a sell on it last week saying it was overpriced. Anyone else see that? Can't remember who it was. 

This was out late last week which might be a reason for the run:



> DJ Newcrest To Post Significant Gold Resource Upgrade Jun 30-CEO27/02/2008 01:25AM AEST
> 
> LONDON (Dow Jones)--Australia's biggest gold producer, Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) is poised to log a significant resource upgrade in its update June 30, Chief Executive Ian Smith said Tuesday.
> 
> The company has 33.2 million troy ounces of gold reserves, but findings in ongoing project areas have been greater than first estimated, said Smith via Web cast from a BMO Capital Markets conference in Florida.
> 
> The miner operates four mines in Australia and one in Indonesia, with a further four projects in development.
> 
> For example, Newcrest's Kenkana project is expected to deliver production in excess of 350,000 ounces a year for over six years, said Smith. The Marsden resource in New South Wales sits well in excess of 1 million ounces, up from 800,000 ounces given last estimate, he added.
> 
> Newcrest's Web site says these four projects comprise resources of 28 million ounces of gold and 3.5 metric tons of copper, with further reserves of 12.5 million ounces of gold and 1.1 tons of copper.




Could be a potential double top looming up in my crystal ball. Obviously hope not.


----------



## Sean K

Am I the only one having any luck today? he he 

Up 5% almost touching $40. 

I expect a pullback from the psychological barrier, and previous all time high, which has been breached I think.

Many must be considering profit taking, expecially with POG having run so hard. I suppose shorting it around now would be an option to some punters, although I'm generally a believer in the trend is your friend.



> 1239 [Dow Jones] Newcrest (NCM.AU) up 1.3% at A$38.52, one of few bright spots in gloomy market today with S&P/ASX 200 down 3.1%. Spot gold now US$978.90, up about US$5.00 since NY close. Spot gold looks headed for pysychological US$1000 level amid global financial markets turmoil. But apart from Newcrest, other gold miners are down today. Newcrest faces strong resistance from January peak at A$39.75. Median price target from brokers is A$37.00, based on Thomson ONE data. Question mark over how gold will react to US$1000 is another reason to be wary of profit taking on Newcrest. (DWR)


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, I was looking at this one closely yesterday, after moving up on such strong volume. 

Good work getting on it!  

I got on SGX, SBM (both look for for the short-term) and EQI instead, all did pretty well today.

I also agree, trend is your friend and would not short this one currently.


----------



## ShareIt

Made a nice profit on this one today... I think $40 will be a real test, let's see how it goes tomorrow!


----------



## michael_selway

ShareIt said:


> Made a nice profit on this one today... I think $40 will be a real test, let's see how it goes tomorrow!




not bad for a day like this!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 55.2 112.9 143.3 139.1 
DPS 5.0 4.6 4.8 5.3 *



> Date: 20/2/2008
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 20
> Australian-listed gold producer Newcrest Mining has posted a 2007-08 interimprofit of $A208m. However, when the restructuring of its hedge book is takeninto account, Newcrest posted a loss of $A8m for the period. CEO Ian Smith notesthat the rising price of gold means it is costing Newcrest more to close out itshedge book. Meanwhile, Smith has signalled that Newcrest may pursueacquisitions, adding that it could make such a deal in the next four months orso




thx

MS


----------



## ShareIt

michael_selway said:


> not bad for a day like this!




I know given that it was a blood bath, T/A had a big reason for me making a call on this... I hope others are doing ok and playing it safe


----------



## MRC & Co

ShareIt said:


> I know given that it was a blood bath, T/A had a big reason for me making a call on this... I hope others are doing ok and playing it safe




ha ha, I have had a few instances in the last few days where I nearly traded simply due to good technicals, would have made a mint out of them too, but wasnt bold enough in this latest little downturn!

Still well in the green over the past week however, so not doing too bad!


----------



## 56gsa

techies?? comments

There's interesting divergence in the RSI on NCM - but now its looking like its turned up with no resultant fall as the divergence would suggest...  is there anything to be read into such an extended divergence not eventuating in the expected downturn?

Very similar patterns on SBM - altho stuttering in its turn - and LGL which is more advanced with RSI up around 70


----------



## Sean K

Has been smashed since reaching the psychological $40 and double top. There looks to be a nasty two headed H&S in there now too. eeeekkk!!! 

Long term still up until those support confluences are broken.

Seems to me the market is factoring in a top in gold.


----------



## josjes

kennas said:


> Has been smashed since reaching the psychological $40 and double top. There looks to be a nasty two headed H&S in there now too. eeeekkk!!!
> 
> Long term still up until those support confluences are broken.
> 
> Seems to me the market is factoring in a top in gold.




Neckline support has been broken now, would you say the next support is the two double top reached in 2006, 2007 which was around $27 ?

I think this level $27-$28 will be a great buying opportunity if you are a firm believer of the Gold Mega bull story.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Neckline support has been broken now, would you say the next support is the two double top reached in 2006, 2007 which was around $27 ?
> 
> I think this level $27-$28 will be a great buying opportunity if you are a firm believer of the Gold Mega bull story.



Should be very good support at those tops, but the DT target is about $20. 

Hopefully, it's just part of natural consolidation as part of the longer term trend. 

I think al lot of punters are assuming US interest rate reductions have almost stopped and USD is bottoming too, effecting speculative buying of gold.


----------



## josjes

kennas said:


> the DT target is about $20.




Sorry what does DT stand for ?

I cannot see $20 to be reached here, unless Gold reaches sub-700 ?? 

Would love to get back into NCM but I would like to see consolidation and strong support around $27-$28 level first before diving in again.


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Sorry what does DT stand for ?
> 
> I cannot see $20 to be reached here, unless Gold reaches sub-700 ??
> 
> Would love to get back into NCM but I would like to see consolidation and strong support around $27-$28 level first before diving in again.



Sorry, Double Top. The target from a double top is the tip of the head to the neckline. Top at $40, neckline $30 = $10 downside. It's not really a DT until the necline is positively broken. Gold could easily correct further IMO. Maybe we even saw a top? I'm still holding as a hedge to the overall financial markets which are still suspect.


----------



## josjes

Another merciless smash to the share price down to $27.6 this morning. 
I am considering of entering NCM for longer term. Can anyone offer a risk reward analysis on this stock on entering at this juncture ?


----------



## Sean K

josjes said:


> Another merciless smash to the share price down to $27.6 this morning.
> I am considering of entering NCM for longer term. Can anyone offer a risk reward analysis on this stock on entering at this juncture ?



An RR analysis? Not exactly sure how to give a quantifiable qualifiable answer there. If I was trading it, I'd be selling on this breakdown. Something seems to be up wouldn't you think? Or, is it just correcting how every other 'blue chip' has during the correction? Whatever the case, it's looking pretty damn scarey to me!

Perhaps you need to make a call as to whether you think gold has peaked or not, and perhaps therefore, NCM?


----------



## reece55

kennas said:


> An RR analysis? Not exactly sure how to give a quantifiable qualifiable answer there. If I was trading it, I'd be selling on this breakdown. Something seems to be up wouldn't you think? Or, is it just correcting how every other 'blue chip' has during the correction? Whatever the case, it's looking pretty damn scarey to me!
> 
> Perhaps you need to make a call as to whether you think gold has peaked or not, and perhaps therefore, NCM?




Not knowing anything really about the fundamentals (other then the fundies for the POG, NCM itself that is), I can only echo Kennas here on the technicals - the chart looks BAAAADDDD... Double top, plus potential head and shoulders all pointing to a target of about $20....

However, check of substantial shareholder movements has the Capital group increasing their stake as late as 24 April 08 and in large parcels. My view - stay away until she settles down a bit, it's fallen too quickly for a short and looks too damaged technically to warrant a long... definitely sidelines material on NCM for me...

Cheers


----------



## josjes

Yeah, gold is at critical juncture this week. At best, it will go sideways with the critical support of 870 hold up for the next few months. At worst it will smash that support and go into 780-800 zone. My thiniking is that entering at this point in time is more like gambling. 

However looking at the XAU monthly chart is giving me some food for thought. I picked up this chart courtesy of kitco site.

The ROC is momentum indicator and peak with exuberance at an impulse move up. But clearly this is not the case with the March high. It looks to me that we are in a corrective phase and perhaps at the bottom before blasting off to big wave THREE. 

The situation right now is probabaly comparable to the period of April 02 - Dec 02, where it moved sideways up before continuing its uptrend. 

Comments ?


----------



## M34N

josjes said:


> Another merciless smash to the share price down to $27.6 this morning.
> I am considering of entering NCM for longer term. Can anyone offer a risk reward analysis on this stock on entering at this juncture ?



I'm in a similar situation, I already had some NCM at $31.00 last week, thinking about buying in some more. Holding this for the long term though so not concerned.

Like others have said, would wait before going in further. Personally, I'm looking  at least until after the Fed statement on interest rates in the US and their view on inflation, will probably set the tone for the POG for the near term anyway.

Still feel NCM has been ridiculously oversold though, I believe it's around 10% down for the past 2 days alone and from its high of $40~, it's a very steep fall down (over 30%) when you consider gold has only fallen approx 15% itself. Seems that it's just the masses factoring in a 'worst-case scenario' gold price given a rebound in the US dollar. Will rally hard if the gold price rebounds, keep your eye on it.


----------



## josjes

Anyone notice that there was this price gap of $26.5-$27 back in September 07 right after the right issues. Well today this price gap has been filled.
The 'gambler' instinct in me urged me to take a position this morning 
Just 30% of my intended NCM position.


----------



## M34N

Wouldn't hold my breath, gold price still very vulnerable, mostly just the speculative types investing hoping on a rebound in the POG given the FOMC decision tonight. Could go either way here, was a technical rebound today I would say, the stock had been sold down way too much like I said last night.

Lets see where we go from here!


----------



## M34N

This one's had a bit of a fall since the start of the month, POG hasn't really fallen THAT much to justify it falling from $33 to $25 now... kind of disappointed in this as the other gold majors haven't gone down this far, and NCM has followed down on high volume consistently over this time. It's not far, only another $3 down from its 52-week low too.


----------



## Sean K

NCM was really smashed due to the Apache gas fire. They've won alternate energy supply, but it's really going to eat into their profit at Telfer. They need another major asset to off set the perception Telfer is everything for them. (Why not buy LGL and have 40m oz to dig up?)

Chart wise, bounced off support, probably aligned to POG bounce off $880 ish, and break through $940. Looking at breakout now which may align with a POG break up through $950. Bit of resistance here and we need the world to align for it to occur. ie, POO keep rising, USD keep going down, Middle east tensions remain. All conspiring for POG rise. Otherwise, breakthrough will fail IMO.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Chart wise, bounced off support, probably aligned to POG bounce off $880 ish, and break through $940. Looking at breakout now which may align with a POG break up through $950. Bit of resistance here and we need the world to align for it to occur. ie, POO keep rising, USD keep going down, Middle east tensions remain. All conspiring for POG rise. Otherwise, breakthrough will fail IMO.



Bouncing off that support identified and showing unusal strength in this market. Could there be some major buying doing that I have expected for the past 3 years? Maybe not. 

Approaching major resistance around $32.


----------



## M34N

kennas said:


> Bouncing off that support identified and showing unusal strength in this market. Could there be some major buying doing that I have expected for the past 3 years? Maybe not.
> 
> Approaching major resistance around $32.




Yeah noted the heavy volume yesterday, over 6m traded off memory, up over 6%, and today managed to hold on to some gains but closed below $30 after hitting intra-day high of $31.50

Unsure on this one kennas, lower volume today around 3m, still above its 2m~ average. Can't be too greedy I suppose on a day like today it's nice to see some green anywhere, was actually expecting NCM to close negative today to be honest, seems to be the trend lately.

Roll of the dice here IMO, but still holding (who knows why...)


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> Yeah noted the heavy volume yesterday, over 6m traded off memory, up over 6%, and today managed to hold on to some gains but closed below $30 after hitting intra-day high of $31.50
> 
> Unsure on this one kennas, lower volume today around 3m, still above its 2m~ average. Can't be too greedy I suppose on a day like today it's nice to see some green anywhere, was actually expecting NCM to close negative today to be honest, seems to be the trend lately.
> 
> Roll of the dice here IMO, but still holding (who knows why...)



Yeah, I've been holding expecting POG to recover at some stage and this and LGL are the best 2 goldies on the market IMO, and perennial takeover targets.

NCM is supposed to be upgrading is resources in the coming weeks. I think they telegraphed it pretty well in their investor roadshow presentation in London recently.

Check out these two slides, as to why I continue to hold.

Resource base of what? 150m oz? 
Cash costs where? $225. Cripes. I don't know how they're keeping costs down in this environment. 

Now unhedged, if POG goes parabolic, then it should do ok...

Chart wise got through $32, and with gold getting through $950 comfortably, should do OK again today.

And last line of the summary of overview is of interest. More acquisition? 

POGs gotta have a break soon though. It's run $100 in just a couple of weeks. Since WP called it going to $700 actually. Gollly.


----------



## MRC & Co

kennas said:


> POGs gotta have a break soon though. It's run $100 in just a couple of weeks. Since WP called it going to $700 actually. Gollly.




lol, yeh, you would think POG would have to rest soon.  Then again, watching some of the other commodity runs in recent times, there is no guarantee.  Parabolic appears the norm these days.

One thing that got me with EW was it was pointing down for POG and the broader indices.  With gold being a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty (the exact current environment), then wouldn't the fall of one, likely mean the rise of the other?  

NCM is a great company, really being held back by the equities crunch (one reason I have swapped to the direct underlying) and the relative strength of the AUD............?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

POG correcting with oil as we thought it might. 

Almost shorted gold but am just not on the ball at the moment.

Instead I thought I'd top up a few NCM on what looks to be an oversell on what wasn't a bad report. The disruption at Telfer was already factored in I thought. Forecasting the significant upgrade to resources in the final report.

Hope I haven't misjudged gold as long term up and I'm out in the streets sweeping in a few months...


----------



## MRC & Co

kennas said:


> POG correcting with oil as we thought it might.
> 
> Almost shorted gold but am just not on the ball at the moment.
> 
> and I'm out in the streets sweeping in a few months...




Yep, certainly did correct and may be overdone now.  Still would like to see a bit more strength from POO though, next support is not until about 122.50.  

Off the ball?  I think most are, hard to catch anything at the moment, only scalpers would be doing well.  I'm currently experiencing my largest drawdown in 2 years after a good start to the month!  

Might be sweeping some streets myself soon!    Toast and water for dinner I think.  

Was waiting for this bank bounce and fully expected it, unfortunately, I have been left on the sidelines, asymmetrical leverage and all that!


----------



## Sean K

POG back to $880 and could find it's way to $860 support, or worse considering the sentiment to commods at the moment. Looks to be a general switch into financials. Mr Market thinks they've been oversold perhaps, or world recession is a certainty and commods will continue down.

But hang on, is gold a commodity? Aren't the gold bulls telling us it's money?



$26 support could be dashed today, as $2.75 was smashed on LGL.


----------



## refined silver

MRC & Co said:


> NCM is a great company,




The fly in the ointment with NCM was always the huge hedge position which was a long way underwater. I know they said they were closing it out and did a big cap raising and dilution, but a few other major hedgers (overseas) have not closed out all the positions they said they would also. The hedges get charged to the costs of the mine they are held against. Looking at the skyrocketing costs graph just posted, I wonder some of the cost increases are hedge related.


----------



## M34N

Anyone watch the CSPA of NCM today?

I don't have a chart as E*Trade is acting up, but about -30 cents at 4:00PM then +80 cents at 4:10PM (change of $1.10) to close at $27.40.

How many shorts got closed to cause that kind of swing? End of month position shuffling?


----------



## Aussie_23

What on earth happend to the price today? Down over 9% without any negative news. Could somone please explain?


----------



## aacantona

Price of gold currently ~US$800 - has sustained some pretty large falls over the last few days in response to slowdown in Europe/US.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Hope I haven't misjudged gold as long term up and I'm out in the streets sweeping in a few months...




Long term POG still trending up, but gold stocks are not.

They have been leading POG down for some time.

Not sure if that means they are oversold, or that it's the way POG is headed...

NCM breaking those support lines was long term up trend over IMO.

Same situation for LGL. 

Difficult times for gold producers, and worse for developers and explorers. 

Long term buy and holders market nightmare.


----------



## M34N

Another new 52-week low set for NCM. Just done some quick calculations;

NCM down 25% over the past 4 sessions ($27.40 - $21.24)
Gold down 3% over the past 4 sessions ($835 - $810~)

kennas; What do you think? Hovering near the $22 support now, next step down is $18 or another 10-15%, potentially could bounce back up to $24 or thereabouts in the next week before the next leg down? Or maybe a bottom in place now and up from here?


----------



## aacantona

M34N said:


> Another new 52-week low set for NCM. Just done some quick calculations;
> 
> NCM down 25% over the past 4 sessions ($27.40 - $21.24)
> Gold down 3% over the past 4 sessions ($835 - $810~)
> 
> kennas; What do you think? Hovering near the $22 support now, next step down is $18 or another 10-15%, potentially could bounce back up to $24 or thereabouts in the next week before the next leg down? Or maybe a bottom in place now and up from here?




Wow - i got out of this 2 weeks back at 26.5 - Based on fundamentals this stock is way overvalued and has probably come back to where it should. If you stroll through it financial statements, its sales have only changed marginally over the last few years and costs have increased. The gains in its share price seem only to reflect the spot gold price. There may be a bit of a bounce in the coming days but i would bet that it probably most represents a dead cat bounce!


----------



## jet328

aacantona said:


> Based on fundamentals this stock is way overvalued and has probably come back to where it should.




Agree, next major production increase is not until 2013 from memory. 

Quite a few of the US gold stocks (of similar market size) trade on lower earnings multiples & better growth profiles


----------



## Paladin

Yeah - this one has been fascinating to watch. Took a short position at 25 ish, and am back in now long at 21.1

Barring anything unforseen happening with the POG (and it seems to have withstood yet another go at $790 resistance) I'm also expecting a modest upward retracement. 

Still in a bearish trend since March, though. And the interesting thing about this correction is that the $21 support level has been tested and eroded, so on the back of bad POG news we may well see it hit sub $20 on a next downward leg.

One for swing trading, not buy and hold IMO.


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> kennas; What do you think? Hovering near the $22 support now, next step down is $18 or another 10-15%, potentially could bounce back up to $24 or thereabouts in the next week before the next leg down? Or maybe a bottom in place now and up from here?



Impossible to tell for me. There's lots of little support levels bumping down, $18 looks the strongest on long term weekly if it makes it there. Obviously dependant on POG, and related to world economy, USD, inflation, geopolitics.



aacantona said:


> Wow - i got out of this 2 weeks back at 26.5 - Based on fundamentals this stock is way overvalued and has probably come back to where it should. If you stroll through it financial statements, its sales have only changed marginally over the last few years and costs have increased.



The increased sales are mitigated by selling the hedge book, effectively increasing revenue. NCM is actually one of the lowest cost producers of the majors. I posted some graphs in the thread a little while ago showing this. 

NCM and LGL have been continually touted as takeover targets (for like 128 years, at least) and if they stay depressed, the odds would be stacking up. Cripes, we all might be able to chip in and buy them both soon...


----------



## dizzle.henry

i am not much of an expert on share trading but I am doing some casually, do u think that buying newcrest now would be a good option, ie now that the price has fallen so low, whats the probability climb back up to mid 30's - $40


----------



## Paladin

Kennas,

Hope you're feeling happy about the way NCM is trading at the moment! A few lovely days there.


----------



## M34N

NCM has been playing funny again, rising during a downward gold price a week ago, but today, going down with a rising gold price! I bought in a little more today right before the close, with a rising AUD gold price, this is only going to help the bottom line for NCM in the next couple months.

Couldn't understand today's movement though, as the rest of the market rallied on the rate cut, and the gold price went up further today, NCM actually sold off further into the day. Down 8% for the day when the gold price was up over 3% in NY and the AUD gold price up 8% over the past 24 hours.

Interesting times indeed.


----------



## AnDy62

Interesting indeed.

I got back in today. I think that gold will head north- mainly simply because of the inflationary plan to salvage the US and possibly, world economy. Gold is doing fantastic in $A terms, but people don't seem to notice that much. 
I think the USD is defying gravity too, debt and inflation will see it come back IMO.

NCM is beautifully placed, it's well diversified, low cost, a big producer and has shown the ability to be a market darling when the ingredients are there, such as earlier this year at $40.


----------



## Sean K

This has been one of the most volatile stocks on the index recently, and that's saying something. Needs to get back above that resistance at $26.50 ish, which is also around the well established downtrend channel. Will probably only occur with some stability in the market and POG clearing $920-35 ish perhaps...

If POG stays solid in the coming months you'd expect some more consolidation around the sector with some of the better juniors with potential low opex resources that have been castrated being picked up by the likes of NCM, NEM, etc.


----------



## M34N

Hey kennas,

Notice that volume is decreasing on the down days, typically followed by high volume spikes to the upside. Figure we could be in for a nice upward swing soon, given the POG as well lately.

Interesting to see the HUI/XAU in the US trending downwards as well following the general market. Gold still trending up but too much fear to pump money back into stocks. Interest rate cuts will pump up gold, dump the US$ and hopefully pump up the goldies.

Hoping for a nice bounce up based on the POG and lower selling volumes, but wouldn't put the house on it, that's for sure.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Classic dump & pump yesterday & today, looks like the insto's are buying again?



> "Australian-based gold producers have got a big windfall gold price to benefit from,'' Hunter Hillcoat, an analyst at Austock Securities Ltd. in Sydney, said today by phone. ``It will benefit any local producer and any company that reports in Australian dollars.''
> 
> *Newcrest, Australia's largest gold producer, will have net income of A$467.5 million in the year ending June 30, 2009, according to the average of eight estimates compiled by Bloomberg, compared with A$134.3 million last year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its 2009 fiscal year profit estimate for Newcrest by 47 percent Aug. 29 after the broker cut its forecast for the local currency. Australia is the world's third-largest bullion producer.*


----------



## Sean K

Poking it's head up through $26.50, but off early high. I want to see a good finish before putting my granny on it.

Gold didn't really move that much to justify todays move on LGL and NCM. Perhaps they are leading gold up, like they led it down? Perception must be that golds going to go for a run.

The only thing that's certain at the moment is volatility and sheeple running with the pack. Hard to be confident in anything really...


----------



## prana

I've accumulated some. Gold breaks out of resistance of 1110 to the Aussie Dollar. With interest rates dropping, and the massive massive massive liquidity injection, I'm bullish gold. It also reminds me of when I got into BHP at $13 and no one wanted any. Chart wise, it looks to be in the making of a reverse head and shoulder - A few more days should confirm the pattern formation or just a glitch in the bear column - I'm in anyways. 

Better still, I want to know who Australia's biggest silver miner is ! I want in too.


----------



## subi1

kennas said:


> Poking it's head up through $26.50, but off early high. I want to see a good finish before putting my granny on it.
> 
> Gold didn't really move that much to justify todays move on LGL and NCM. Perhaps they are leading gold up, like they led it down? Perception must be that golds going to go for a run.
> 
> The only thing that's certain at the moment is volatility and sheeple running with the pack. Hard to be confident in anything really...




Kennas

I thought gold actually went up near $100 aud last night. The price was around $1366aud.
It seems to be dropping back a little bit tonight but it is early.

Good luck


----------



## Sean K

subi1 said:


> Kennas
> 
> I thought gold actually went up near $100 aud last night. The price was around $1366aud.
> It seems to be dropping back a little bit tonight but it is early.
> 
> Good luck



Ah, of course, I had my USD hat on. 

NCM has just poked through $26.50, but not through the downtrend line. POG off quite a bit at the moment, so unlikely to hold above.

Agree on the possible H&S too....

Thrown some more S&R lines on the 1 yr chart which gives a slightly different picture with resistance. Looks like a general zone between $26 - $29 ish to be a problem. And downtrend around $30 ish. I couldn't have any confidence in a longer term trend starting to appear until those lines were crashed. 

Still, with that waving cycle in there, there's definately short term opportunities to pick if you're game. 

Waiting...waiting....


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> Ah, of course, I had my USD hat on.
> 
> NCM has just poked through $26.50, but not through the downtrend line. POG off quite a bit at the moment, so unlikely to hold above.
> 
> Agree on the possible H&S too....
> 
> Thrown some more S&R lines on the 1 yr chart which gives a slightly different picture with resistance. Looks like a general zone between $26 - $29 ish to be a problem. And downtrend around $30 ish. I couldn't have any confidence in a longer term trend starting to appear until those lines were crashed.
> 
> Still, with that waving cycle in there, there's definately short term opportunities to pick if you're game.
> 
> Waiting...waiting....




Gold is now half way through a moon shoot here! 

But this will likely be caught in the middle of any dumping. (NCM)

At least gold has definitively broken away from the market and is running its own course.

The CDS auction tonight is going to be a real litmus test for gold... If you aren't gonna hold gold through this, you never will or should.


----------



## chops_a_must

I'm beginning to think that a tanking POG would be good for NCM. 

Anyway, it certainly looks like it wants to/ is trying to turn on the charts.


----------



## M34N

Strong reversal today, this one has been unfairly punished of late despite the rising gold price. I think it's pretty obvious now that with the higher prospect of a rising gold price later on, and finally some assurances of some stability in the markets, people want to park their money somewhere that should out-perform.

But even this movement today surprised me, saw it go positive in the morning after being down a couple percent and shrugged it off; especially since the XAU/HUI was down something close to 15% in the US session Friday!

I'm still holding this one FWIW. Strong believer in the POG and its potential to out-perform the rest of the market should hopefully be represented in the gold stocks.


----------



## M34N

Newcrest's First-Quarter Gold Output Rose to Record



> Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's biggest gold mining company, said output in the first-quarter rose 8.4 percent on record production at its Telfer and Cadia Hill mines in Australia and Gosowong operation in Indonesia.
> 
> A record 485,978 ounces of gold was produced in the three months ended Sept. 30, from 448,103 a year earlier, Melbourne- based Newcrest said today in a statement. UBS AG estimated output of 417,000 ounces in an Oct. 10 report.
> 
> Chief Executive Officer Ian Smith is boosting production as *prices rose to an Australian-dollar record of A$1,414 an ounce on Oct. 10. A 30 percent slump in the Australian currency this half is increasing earnings for exporters who sell products in U.S. dollars and incur costs in the local currency.*
> 
> Newcrest fell 8.5 percent to A$18.70 at 10:11 a.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange. The stock has dropped 44 percent this year.
> 
> The company sold bullion at an average price of A$975 an ounce in the quarter, up from A$720 an ounce. Operating cash costs increased to A$365 an ounce, from A$186 an ounce.
> 
> Copper output dropped 2.6 percent to 21,550 metric tons in the quarter.




Making bucket loads of money and it's down about 11% right now on this news. Fundamentals go right out the window! Got to love the market at the moment


----------



## gav

Good news doesnt always equate to a higher SP in these times, and it isnt just NCM affected.  I could name others, but I'd be here all day and night.

"Operating cash costs increased to A$365 an ounce, from A$186 an ounce"

Earnings may be up, but thats a significant increase in costs too.


----------



## Miner

M34N said:


> Newcrest's First-Quarter Gold Output Rose to Record
> 
> 
> 
> Making bucket loads of money and it's down about 11% right now on this news. Fundamentals go right out the window! Got to love the market at the moment




Some times reporting to market could be read differently.

It was true that NCM revenue gone up by 12% but the cash cost has gone up by 32% too. With price of gold being at a very low value, market volatility is so negatively placed the price fall in NCM is nothing ununsual IMO.

Market probably already factored the price with a much lower cash cost and higher POG. But please DYOR and I could be wrong.

Report is attached.


----------



## johnnyg

Interesting Chart. Been trending down since the start of the year, but ranging nicely in the channel. Could possibly be a short term trade looking for a bounce off the lower trend line. However after touching the top trend line previously it falls just short of the bottem trend line so could possibly bounce short term (middle of Nov) to the $22-23 range before heading back down to ~$14 (start of Dec)


----------



## amory

compare this chart with the price of gold - POG - & you find that the same peaks are very pronounced:  mid march, mid july & then sep/october.  in the same descending pattern.

wouldn't that indicate that one had better wait for gold to make up its mind, before projecting the next peak & trough for NCM?


----------



## DowJones

This stock is driven by the price of GOLD commodity futures. Its quite volatile. How well the SP does depends on the futures contracts. To invest in Newcrest you would have to have a bullish view on GOLD.

I dont own NCM shares but sold out last time too soon  - now its back below my original BUY price...

However IMO with all the bail-outs and the amount of $$$$ thrown by govts in the GFC, it could produce an inflationary environment - potentially ppl will move out of cash and into gold... thats one view I have been reading about. Time will tell.

Does anything have a similar or opposite view?


----------



## prana

With the current destruction, much M1 is being destroyed, so there may be a short period of retracement for gold on the downside, but I would say anytime now, gold would rebound. I totally agree with you in the mid to long run, these monetary policy is very inflationary, and so I can only see one direction for it over a larger time period unless the FEDS are abolished or they shed their stripes or something weird.


----------



## Sean K

I wonder if pushing up against this channel is a sell signal?

Or, if it breaks through a buy signal?


----------



## johnnyg

Id be tempted to short from here kennas, but if you look at previous attempts to break out it normally spends 3-4 days around that area so I dont think theres any great rush. Also with the price of gold heading up im thinking NCM could be breaking out of its downtrend sooner rather then later.


----------



## Sean K

Longer term resistance also around the $26 mark so maybe odds on another failure at this level. But if it breaks through ..... hmmm


----------



## M34N

Agree with what's said above, sold just under half my holdings of NCM yesterday at $25.50, it just seems to be stuck in a downtrend and probably best to get out while it was up.

But interested to see where it goes today, looks like an up (?) day, the XAU and HUI in the US were up this morning despite the gold price being down, but our goldies have a tendency to go whichever way they well feel like lately.

Kind of don't mind if it goes down or up at this point, will look at buying in again if it breaches that $20 level again, or maybe switch to SGX or LGL.


----------



## sinner

Been watching this also. My guess is the goldbug mentality which makes gold miners attractive makes those companies with high gearing UNATTRACTIVE! If you are banking on gold, you are most likely to be banking on hyperinflation: hyperinflation will send those highly geared into the bin.

Sino Gold I have been advised to stay away from because they are forced to give a portion of their production to the Chinese government.

LGL looking better and better every day, both from a market sentiment perspective and a fundamental gold bug perspective.


----------



## Sean K

sinner said:


> Been watching this also. My guess is the goldbug mentality which makes gold miners attractive makes those companies with high gearing UNATTRACTIVE! If you are banking on gold, you are most likely to be banking on hyperinflation: hyperinflation will send those highly geared into the bin.
> 
> Sino Gold I have been advised to stay away from because they are forced to give a portion of their production to the Chinese government.
> 
> LGL looking better and better every day, both from a market sentiment perspective and a fundamental gold bug perspective.



Yeah, NCM is a pretty low cost producer and POG in AUD is doing very well at the moment. 

My concern for LGL has shifted from one project risk, to excecution risk, in getting Ballarat and that thing in Africa up and running. If these don't go to plan there'll be some negative sentiment stirred up. And viccie verca of course. 

With the gold juniors being hammered, I'd expect some more M&A involving these two. Plenty of tasty scraps laying about if POG continues up.


----------



## Sean K

johnnyg said:


> Id be tempted to short from here kennas, but if you look at previous attempts to break out it normally spends 3-4 days around that area so I dont think theres any great rush. Also with the price of gold heading up im thinking NCM could be breaking out of its downtrend sooner rather then later.






kennas said:


> Longer term resistance also around the $26 mark so maybe odds on another failure at this level. But if it breaks through ..... hmmm




Yep, failed again. Still one to watch around this area though I reckon. A break up through such strong resistance may be fruitful.


----------



## M34N

kennas said:


> Yep, failed again. Still one to watch around this area though I reckon. A break up through such strong resistance may be fruitful.




Agreed kennas, I booked out half my NCM holdings at $25.50 last week, kind of suspected as soon as it hit that level it'd head down again. Will be interesting to see today with the POG still holding above $800 and trading up Friday in NY.

But NCM has been affected too much by the general market conditions and not the POG so much in that period, if things start to stabilize in the financial markets then it may break out of that channel.


----------



## johnnyg

Well with Gold down to $770 it looks like NCM's will be heading back down the channel. May present a good buying opportunity in a few days/weeks time. Just wish I kept my short position open for longer. Still learning the trade though


----------



## Sean K

Opening up with it's head juuuuuust above $26. 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

EOD will probably be back at $25. lol

A good day/night with POG and a green DOW and it might be through..


----------



## nikemi

kennas said:


> Yep, failed again. Still one to watch around this area though I reckon. A break up through such strong resistance may be fruitful.




Hi Kennas and everyone else,

Would you expect it to close above the trend line to say it broke up or is intraday trading above good enough?

I find today a very interesting day for NCM. Trading above 26 for most of the day and close at 25.51. Interesting....


----------



## Sean K

nikemi said:


> Hi Kennas and everyone else,
> 
> Would you expect it to close above the trend line to say it broke up or is intraday trading above good enough?
> 
> I find today a very interesting day for NCM. Trading above 26 for most of the day and close at 25.51. Interesting....



Need an EOD close above resistance line and then for that to be tested and found as support for a long term breakout call. Finished under again, so still only short term tradeable imo.


----------



## johnnyg

Well I went short again on NCM intra-day on Friday and made a nice little profit. Still having trouble on letting my winners run (possibly)? 

POG was down heavily again on Friday night so it will be interesting come Monday wether NCM will react to the overall sentiment (ASX up possibly?) or follow Gold down, although it has been holding up quite well of late, I think a break below its little box its formed could spell trouble.


----------



## chops_a_must

bankit said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.
> 
> Bankit






kennas said:


> Looks like NCMs last few months too. Interesting juncture.



Quotes stolen from the gold thread.



kennas said:


> Need an EOD close above resistance line and then for that to be tested and found as support for a long term breakout call. Finished under again, so still only short term tradeable imo.



Looks convincing to me. Back to where I bought it as a bottom drawer. Up 6% as it stands.


----------



## M34N

I think the first sign of any gold weakness = short on NCM.

Interesting to note since the shorting ban was lifted that NCM has actually trended up and the gold price has moved sideways.


----------



## Sean K

Will be interesting now to see if the break can hold as support. That's back between $26 and $26.50 I suppose. Volume doesn't look that great, but looks prospective for the red lines to have changed to blue. For the second. eeek

The PPT have downgraded NCM because they've outperformed. They must be shorting it themselves.

0931 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan downgrades Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU) to Neutral from Overweight on the back of recent share price strength. "Whilst we maintain our view that Newcrest remains the pick of the Australian gold majors due to the company's proven quality of management, assets, and exploration upside; recent share price movements now prompt a downgrade of our recommendation," analyst says. Keeps A$29.00 target on stock, NCM last at A$28.23. (LMF)


----------



## GumbyLearner

Kennas 

I have been slowly building a small holding in NCM since last year.

When you say the PPT, are you talking about the US Exec Order team?

I have noticed that the AUD per oz price has remained strong this quarter.

Do you think the Apache/Varanus issue will affect this qtrs results? 

Whats your opinion of NCM med-long term?

Thanks for all your contributions on this thread


----------



## Sean K

Hi GL,

JPMorgan is the PPT I think. They do all their trading for them it's rumoured. 

I have go no idea where the market's going medium term.  Hence why I'm just short term trading and have been for the past 18 months, with just a couple of buy and hopers, which I am flagellating myself over. 

Short term we're in a little bear rally, but how far we've got I'm not sure. Markets overcorrected on the last incredible leg down. Lots of panic for the doors.

Interesting to me that 3400 ish showed as support and formed a higher low. If we break 3700 ish then we're making a higher high, and breaking the low of Oct. Step by step forming a base, but just how long we take to coil up again for the looooong term uptrend to continue is anyone's guess - between 2-7 years perhaps. Lots of flushing still needs to occur I think, but depends how much is factored in too, which is the great unknown. 

For NCM, all depends on POG and equities. Both moving higher would be nice.

I think the losses from the gas outage have been mentioned in previous announcements. You will find it there somewhere. I don't think they will surprise the market and are factored in. Hm, maybe...

Nice recovery from NCM today, and XAU and HUI both up 8% in the US. 

Short term up trend established for NCM now with higher highs and lows forming.


----------



## Sean K

Pretty ugly looking candle yesterday. Poor failure, after golds push up. Profit taking I ass u me. Gold running still so may recover. 

I notice more M&A occurring in the gold world tonight. IAMGold merge with Orezone. I think we'll see a bit more of this unfold in Australia shortly where those with cash and product clean up the wreckage.


----------



## cuttlefish

kennas said:


> Pretty ugly looking candle yesterday. Poor failure, after golds push up. Profit taking I ass u me. Gold running still so may recover.
> 
> I notice more M&A occurring in the gold world tonight. IAMGold merge with Orezone. I think we'll see a bit more of this unfold in Australia shortly where those with cash and product clean up the wreckage.




Yes will be interesting to see if NCM, LGL and the XGD manage a turnaround tomorrow if the gold price move holds overnight. (I don't place a lot of value on candlesticks but none of them had pretty ones at the close today).  I

ts nice to see gold stocks starting to move in synch with gold price and decouple a bit from the other indices.

I agree we're likely to see M&A in the Aus environment.  Its going to be a pity to see some of the quality juniors and mid sized producers get taken out at opportunistic prices.


----------



## GumbyLearner

I think a good aussie gold price per ounce is what Ian Smith said was in store for this company a long time ago and it continues to OUT-PERFORM the market. I will buy more on the dips, what a great stock in these times!


----------



## Sean K

In the Oz, still a health premium...

And probably based on POG around $600. Would be nice to know the long term assumptions with the alchemy that produces these...



CREDIT Suisse has cut its target price for Newcrest Mining to $39 from $45.

But it has maintained its “Outperform” rating. 

“Newcrest’s core is its strong identified gold and copper endowment and the high probability that historic growth of reserves and resources can be maintained for some years,” Credit Suisse said in a client note. 

It added that the weak copper price would be reflected by higher reported cash costs, but these should remain attractive compared to those for Newcrest’s peers. 

Newcrest was trading down 1.2 per cent at $27.90 today.


----------



## Sean K

This piece on NCM is a couple of weeks old, but interesting nonetheless. Was calling a break up from $24 a buy signal.

http://www.egoli.com.au/epiServer/Templates/Public/Pages/StoryArticle.aspx?id=37305&epslanguage=en

I and a few here thought $26 was more important.

A little recovery yesty from the profit taking on a down day which is nice to see.

While it holds above the new likely support lines looks good short term. 

A little resistnce there at the $29 ish mark next hurdle.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Hi Kennas

Whats your opinion that gold in $au has sat above $1000 per oz since mid Sep?

Should make for a bumper qtr :bounce:


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> Hi Kennas
> 
> Whats your opinion that gold in $au has sat above $1000 per oz since mid Sep?
> 
> Should make for a bumper qtr :bounce:



Yes should be very good on the au side, but NCM get quite a few credits for cu. I don't think that's gone too well. Need to check the values and how much the change in price effects the bottom line...

Wouldn't be surprised to see NCM go for Prominant Hill, or Matabe off OZL, and hope it's fire sale prices. Long term great opportunity.

Has just made it's way through $29, and looks like it might have been tested and made support, but just brief. 

Clearly in short term uptrend with higher lows and highs. An EWer might say we're in 5 of 5 now, so maybe due for a decent break, but with POG looking to retake $900 might keep going. Or not.


----------



## GumbyLearner

I hold both BHP :  and OZL (dog) and NCM .

Very interesting times indeed!

I still think PH will get NABbed before Martabe!

Either way I dont care, just a pt trader, ft investor!


----------



## Sean K

I've been waiting for a pullback to add some more but it just keep bloody going up! 

LOL

Must have a decent pause here somewhere. 

Perhaps when $29 became support that was another buy signal...

Chart wise, not sure what's next, perhaps a resistance zone at $34 ish ish around the highs in Mar and Jul perhaps. 

Wonder if they are talking to OZ at the moment?


----------



## chops_a_must

I have the breakout target as being exceeded today Kennas.

I would expect some kind of pullback.

But unlike an ordinary stock, this is a bottom drawer for me... so barring something fundamental, I wont be selling anyway.


----------



## eric35

I got into NCM about a week ago, but never expected that quick up surge. I have a feeling it could keep going up over the next few days.

July 2008 was $34 roughly, $35 in May. We should get there again.


----------



## Sean K

Well, we reached that $34 mark quicker than expected and you would have expected a pause around these leves.

BUT!

You can blame the ASX for your share price weakness today. F**kers.

An ASX please explain for the recent action and then a 'we know nothing', the cause. 




My best guess at the recent movement and outperformance is the technical breakout, and maybe anticipation that they will be able to pick up some of the OZL scraps for a song.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> An ASX please explain for the recent action and then a 'we know nothing', the cause.
> 
> My best guess at the recent movement and outperformance is the technical breakout, and maybe anticipation that they will be able to pick up some of the OZL scraps for a song.



Another ann out last night regarding profit guidance which looks nice, but I'm not sure what the market's expectation was previously.

Still, would have to consider a 15% plus gain to the corresponding year may be good in this environment.

Unless, as I infer, the market's expecting 50% plus....


----------



## GumbyLearner

It is hard to gauge whats going on with the SP atm.

I think a lot of stocks have their compasses stuck around magnetic island 
at the moment. Most banks and economists dont have a clue because of the lack of due diligence in financials and previously undisclosed positions of bankrupts and shonksters recently rescued by government funded handouts. 

It looks the pyramid-selling models of Amway, HerbalLife, Henry Kaye etc.. have taken over in the 
financial arena. Thanks Madeoff!

Dont worry Kennas what these guys dig up is no-one elses liability. 

I'll keep my holding in NCM over any blue-chip financial and/or retail stock anyday while the artificial props are put in place and real distortions of companies profit/loss balance sheets are slowly revealed to us "pleb" investors by the media!

By the way, why is the ASX is acting like a cop on a motorbike around Christmas time? Surely they have other investigative powers!


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Chart wise, not sure what's next, perhaps a resistance zone at $34 ish ish around the highs in Mar and Jul perhaps.
> 
> Wonder if they are talking to OZ at the moment?



Stalled at 34 but just poking it's head through. Had a great run since the breakout at 26. 

OZ in the media announcing that they are accepting offers for Matabe. NCM must be in the mix to pick this up at a bargain which I suspect is the cause for the recent support, along with institutional buying.


----------



## Boggo

kennas said:


> Stalled at 34 but just poking it's head through. Had a great run since the breakout at 26.
> 
> OZ in the media announcing that they are accepting offers for Matabe. NCM must be in the mix to pick this up at a bargain which I suspect is the cause for the recent support, along with institutional buying.




I may be wrong kennas but I am starting to see weakness in NCM, momentum seems to be waning.
From an Elliott perspective it may make $38 on this wave 3 before a correction but I doubt it unless it gets some news to kick it along.

Just my


----------



## Phillip

Agree with Boggo, I am watching NCM closely and Gold is looking overbought, there are signs of re treat in the FX markets against the USD.

SHould be a good short for two-three trading days in the 34.50-35.00 region if you can get some.

Phillip.


----------



## Boggo

I am keeping a tight stop on this, now moved down to breakeven.

Target is $28.70, a big ask perhaps.

(click to expand)


----------



## Sean K

Boggo said:


> I am keeping a tight stop on this, now moved down to breakeven.
> 
> Target is $28.70, a big ask perhaps.
> 
> (click to expand)



Looks logical to me at this point. I'll be looking to add to long position if it heads to that level and bounces.


----------



## Boggo

kennas said:


> Looks logical to me at this point. I'll be looking to add to long position if it heads to that level and bounces.




Agree kennas, high side of $40 is a possibility.
It probably sounds silly but this is an 'uncomfortable' trade, ie. it is swimming against this sea of green hence the tight stop.

(click to expand)


----------



## Sean K

First bounce after the consolidation around where we thought.

Positive sign to me, but I'm cautious pending overall market next leg down capitulation into the abyss...


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> OZ in the media announcing that they are accepting offers for Matabe. NCM must be in the mix to pick this up at a bargain which I suspect is the cause for the recent support, along with institutional buying.





*DJ Newcrest Joins Queue For OZ Minerals Martabe Proj - Report *
14/01/2009 08:05AM 

AEST DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 

Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) is understood to be one of a number of parties actively engaged in the sale process for OZ Mineral Ltd.'s (OZL.AU) Martabe project in Indonesia, The Australian Financial Review reported in its Street Talk column Wednesday, without citing sources. 

It is thought Newcrest is one of a number of groups looking at Martabe, although others could be more advanced, the newspaper said.


----------



## Sean K

Not sure whether to hold this as a long term project or just short term trade.



I consider the US and global economy to be rat sheet, and gold to go up, but not sure how gold companies will go due to costs etc....



Agree with this that Cu is going to be a major effect on NCMs bottom line.....


1141 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse downgrades Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU) to Neutral from Outperform, and cuts target to A$35.00 from A$39.00. Not expecting major surprises out of company's quarterly production numbers, due Jan. 22, says copper price collapse will be reflected in higher reported cash costs for Cadia, Ridgeway and Telfer, while strong September quarter production from Cadia and Kencana is not likely to be repeated. NCM up 6.9% at A$30.94. (LMF)


----------



## Sean K

How did that trade go boggo? Made your target pretty easily, hope you switched to a long. 

Gee a few gaps in the chart...

Looks like that support area I identified above held OK now moving back to the key resistance about $34.

Quarterly results out today. Will be interesting to see how much the dehedging and Cu price has effected earnings.


----------



## ned_beaty

Trading halt this morning for NCM??????

Any one know what's up??

Is it to with the purchase from OZL????


----------



## Sean K

ned_beaty said:


> Trading halt this morning for NCM??????
> 
> Any one know what's up??
> 
> Is it to with the purchase from OZL????



Institutional capital raising to 'strengthen balance sheet'. Funny that, because in the Dec Qtrly they said they had a strong balance sheet. lol

Hope it's not at too much of a discount to current price. 

Could be to raise funds for an acquisition.


----------



## nikemi

kennas said:


> Institutional capital raising to 'strengthen balance sheet'. Funny that, because in the Dec Qtrly they said they had a strong balance sheet. lol
> 
> Hope it's not at too much of a discount to current price.
> 
> Could be to raise funds for an acquisition.




According to CompareShares:


"Shares in Newcrest Mining Ltd have gone into a trading halt as Australia's biggest gold miner sells new stock to raise money from institutional shareholders.

Newcrest is conducting the share placement to strengthen its balance sheet, enhance financial flexibility and take advantage of growth opportunities, the Melbourne-based miner said in a statement.

The shares will remain in a trading halt until Newcrest makes an announcement or when the market opens on Wednesday, February 4.

Newcrest plans to raise $500 million to repay debt and to fund expansion and potential acquisitions.

The gold producer will sell shares at $27 each, a 12.9 per cent discount to Newcrest's closing price on January 30, to institutional shareholders to raise the equity.

The proceeds of the placement will be used to pay down $364 million of bilateral debt, and fund the expansions of the Cadia East mine in NSW and the Gosowong mine in Indonesia.

Newcrest said the additional funds also would allow the company to pursue "external opportunities" if they arise.

Newcrest, which owns and operates six mines, will offer shareholders the opportunity to participate in a share purchase plan following the fully underwritten institutional placement.

Meanwhile, the gold producer has made a preliminary forecast for its underlying profit after tax for the six months to December 31 to be in the range of $235 million to $245 million.

This compares to $207.9 million for the corresponding period last year.

Shares in the company last traded at $31."


----------



## JTLP

LOL indeed Kennas.

AVO raised $28 mil via institutions when everything was going well and they are producing...now NCM decides to raise $500m to strengthen the balance sheet.

I hold the previous but am quite suspect as to why producing goldies have to raise capital in this sort of environment (booming gold prices)...especially in NCM's case where it was already making a hefty profit 

The report didn't sound convincing either...as Kennas said...to shore up the sheet basically.


----------



## vincent191

I dont understand why they need to raise new capital under the present economic climate. Gold prices are high and they claim to be achieving their profit forecast and only very recently claim to have a strong balance sheet.

Why do they need to raise new capital and at a hefty discount and diluting their existing shareholders?

It is bewilding to see $3 to $4 wiped off the value of my shares for no good reason (that I can see).


----------



## Sean K

vincent191 said:


> I dont understand why they need to raise new capital under the present economic climate. Gold prices are high and they claim to be achieving their profit forecast and only very recently claim to have a strong balance sheet.
> 
> Why do they need to raise new capital and at a hefty discount and diluting their existing shareholders?
> 
> It is bewilding to see $3 to $4 wiped off the value of my shares for no good reason (that I can see).



I think they're scraping together spare cash for Martabe, or PH off OZ. 

It looks like you have the option to subscribe for up to $5K worth, which I will. 

The stock won't necessarily open at that price when it reopens, but if it did, and things still looked favourable to gold, it may be an opportunity.


----------



## M34N

kennas said:


> I think they're scraping together spare cash for Martabe, or PH off OZ.
> 
> It looks like you have the option to subscribe for up to $5K worth, which I will.
> 
> The stock won't necessarily open at that price when it reopens, but if it did, and things still looked favourable to gold, it may be an opportunity.




I find it interesting that they needed to do some capital raising as well, probably taking advantage of the recent share price strength to cash up and prepare for some possible takeovers? I think some other gold stocks may be of interest here IMO.


----------



## Cooks

From a business perspective, if I were bullish on the outlook of gold in the near future and looking to take advantage of this before gold prices were to reach much higher levels, I would probably look at expanding now hoping to take good advantage of the future opportunities. Perhaps NCM is looking to do the same?


----------



## vincent191

But I am still a bit cheesed off to see 12.5% wiped off the share price (possibily more). 

OK I will wait and see what they intend to do with the money. I hope there is a good reason.

Nearly all my portfolio is in the red and to see one of the very few that is in the green turn red....hurts.


----------



## Cooks

vincent191 said:


> But I am still a bit cheesed off to see 12.5% wiped off the share price (possibily more).
> 
> OK I will wait and see what they intend to do with the money. I hope there is a good reason.
> 
> Nearly all my portfolio is in the red and to see one of the very few that is in the green turn red....hurts.




Well technically yes 12.5% off, but wait till it comes out of the halt and see how the market reacts.... that's the most important thing 

If they are looking to expand, I think the stock will have good support over the next few months and then head into a mark up phase


----------



## Redwings

Just saw Julie Lee from Bell Direct on Sky Business saying that it's more like $750m and not just 500m....


----------



## M34N

Redwings said:


> Just saw Julie Lee from Bell Direct on Sky Business saying that it's more like $750m and not just 500m....




I'd be kind of worried about why NCM would need this kind of money, according to their press release they are repaying $AU364m in debt, so why would they need double that (if true)? They did mention expansions in NSW and Indonesia but my understanding this is only about $150m or so, so where would this other $250m go?

I'm thinking about the $27.00 offer price and where this came from as well, why offer a ~13% discount to your share price if you are doing well and don't need the money other than to reduce debt? Seems like a hefty discount and similar to something CBA did a while back when they announced some write-downs. I have been looking for an entry point to jump in to NCM again but this has made me think twice.


----------



## Redwings

M34N said:


> I'd be kind of worried about why NCM would need this kind of money, according to their press release they are repaying $AU364m in debt, so why would they need double that (if true)? They did mention expansions in NSW and Indonesia but my understanding this is only about $150m or so, so where would this other $250m go?
> 
> I'm thinking about the $27.00 offer price and where this came from as well, why offer a ~13% discount to your share price if you are doing well and don't need the money other than to reduce debt? Seems like a hefty discount and similar to something CBA did a while back when they announced some write-downs. I have been looking for an entry point to jump in to NCM again but this has made me think twice.




Have been trying to find something published to confirm and back it up but so far nothing so let's hope it won't be $750m... unless they intend to use it to get OZL's PH mine for a song at $250m


----------



## justiceotp

Make sense for them to grab the extra money while its there, gold is the hot item at the moment and if they can grab 750m they should, will be plenty of good opportunities for them to spend it on shortly.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> First bounce after the consolidation around where we thought.
> 
> Positive sign to me, but I'm cautious pending overall market next leg down capitulation into the abyss...



Consolidated very well above the short term $28 support even after the cash grab for no apparent reason. The break through those major resistance lines looks pretty good for now and is that a pennant there with the pole $18 to $34? Nice.  Maybe not, it supposed to be a continuation pattern. Maybe at least a triangley thing in there which gives a target of previous highs. 


*Symmetrical Triangle* 

*Trend*: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
*Four (4) Points*: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
*Volume*: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
*Duration*: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
*Breakout Time Frame*: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
*Breakout Direction*: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
*Breakout Confirmation*: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
*Return to Apex*: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
*Price Target*: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like it might be breaking up from this pennenty triangly formation but $34 is going to be tough to break and that will be the key imo. Looks like it's going to open up around $34.50 so looks prospective. Had a great run since the 'bottom' amd break up through the $26.00 mark.


----------



## M34N

kennas said:


> Looks like it might be breaking up from this pennenty triangly formation but $34 is going to be tough to break and that will be the key imo. Looks like it's going to open up around $34.50 so looks prospective. Had a great run since the 'bottom' amd break up through the $26.00 mark.




It's tracking the POG pretty consistently lately so no surprise (like the other goldies). I'm waiting to see a reasonable retracement in the POG first before a jump back in, or maybe even a dip into another minor gold miner since NCM is pretty cashed up and may be looking for a takeover target in the sector.

LGL, SGX and SBM seem to be doing pretty well and following a similar pattern to NCM so it's not unique to the company. You planning on adding any NCM to your portfolio kennas? May be a bit dangerous buying in now following the strong run up like you mentioned so I'm happy to wait for a pull back, whenever (if ever) that may be!


----------



## Sean K

M34N said:


> It's tracking the POG pretty consistently lately so no surprise (like the other goldies). I'm waiting to see a reasonable retracement in the POG first before a jump back in, or maybe even a dip into another minor gold miner since NCM is pretty cashed up and may be looking for a takeover target in the sector.
> 
> LGL, SGX and SBM seem to be doing pretty well and following a similar pattern to NCM so it's not unique to the company. You planning on adding any NCM to your portfolio kennas? May be a bit dangerous buying in now following the strong run up like you mentioned so I'm happy to wait for a pull back, whenever (if ever) that may be!



Yeah agree with your points. In regard to NCM, I thought the bounce off the $28 was a good opportunity, and now breaking up through $34.00 (if it does EOD) looks like another. I am kicking myself for not having more conviction about LGL and NCM (which I've held for years) and not topped up at lower prices.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Yeah agree with your points. In regard to NCM, I thought the bounce off the $28 was a good opportunity, and now breaking up through $34.00 (if it does EOD) looks like another.



Looks to be struggling with $34.00. Potential evening star looming, which looks untidy short term. Hoping it stays above.....Article in the Fin this am discussing possible NCM and LGL merger, which happens at least 10 times a year. Wish they'd just hurry up and get it over and done with.


----------



## Redwings

Anyone taking up the SPP offer? 

Just got the letter today and was wondering if anyone is taking it up, for how much and if you guys think it's a good deal.

thanks.


----------



## Sean K

Redwings said:


> Anyone taking up the SPP offer?
> 
> Just got the letter today and was wondering if anyone is taking it up, for how much and if you guys think it's a good deal.
> 
> thanks.



If you want more shares, and you think they're going to trade over $27 by the issue date, it may be a good deal. Comes down to some portfolio balance. Do you want to be heavier in NCM? Should you be more diversifiedin in the longer run and buy another another gold company or another industry? Or, if it's going to be trading well above $27, there's potential for a stag profit. I can't see it running too far away from the spp, and it has had a great run, and gold may correct again shortly. So, the definitive answer: Maybe. : LOL   

Good luck with your decision.

(I'm taking up the full allocation, which isn't really much anyway)


----------



## Redwings

kennas said:


> If you want more shares, and you think they're going to trade over $27 by the issue date, it may be a good deal. Comes down to some portfolio balance. Do you want to be heavier in NCM? Should you be more diversifiedin in the longer run and buy another another gold company or another industry? Or, if it's going to be trading well above $27, there's potential for a stag profit. I can't see it running too far away from the spp, and it has had a great run, and gold may correct again shortly. So, the definitive answer: Maybe. : LOL
> 
> Good luck with your decision.
> 
> (I'm taking up the full allocation, which isn't really much anyway)




Hi Kennas,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. 

Well, I am a little heavy on mining already and as far as other producers, my conservative nature doesn't think getting in LGL might be a good idea due to the sovereign risks and I may have missed the boat (was looking at it when it was $1.50) on that one. 

Am torn between if I should put the budget of $2K into the NCM SPP or just buying the bullion GOLD on the ASX.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Looks to be struggling with $34.00. Potential evening star looming, which looks untidy short term. Hoping it stays above.....



Nice hammer 2 days ago just holding at $34 and then yesterday quite a break up. Gold still running, so NCM looks good to keep going. Been a great run since that break up at $26, but adding more at $16 might have been nice. Next resistance all time high perhaps? Markets imploading and gold stocks doubled from the lows. Nice.


----------



## M34N

kennas said:


> Nice hammer 2 days ago just holding at $34 and then yesterday quite a break up. Gold still running, so NCM looks good to keep going. Been a great run since that break up at $26, but adding more at $16 might have been nice. Next resistance all time high perhaps? Markets imploading and gold stocks doubled from the lows. Nice.




Wish I had of jumped in after the buyback and it hit the $29.00 levels, hesitated as I figured it wasn't a support level and it kept rocketing higher.

Congrats on the hold kennas, I got out of this one way too soon and didn't foresee the rise in gold like this to be honest. People have been predicting it for ages but was expecting a similar fall in the goldies like the last leg down in the markets and didn't want to risk it. Well at least FMG and a couple others have done well for me :


----------



## johenmo

kennas said:


> Article in the Fin this am discussing possible NCM and LGL merger, which happens at least 10 times a year. Wish they'd just hurry up and get it over and done with.




Who's supposed to takeover whom? NCM buying, I presume.  Haven't looked at Gold stocks until recently.


----------



## Sean K

johenmo said:


> Who's supposed to takeover whom? NCM buying, I presume.  Haven't looked at Gold stocks until recently.



Would be a 'friendly merger' if it was to happen imo. If one was going to take the other, NCM would have to offer a sizeable premium for LGL and then there'd be the risk of a bidding war from one of the other majors.

This rumour pops up every year though. As it should. Seems like an obvious fit.


----------



## Boggo

I have been following NCM for a while now, the current price drop is not unexpected from a charting perspective.

The top pic was the view in mid Jan, Wave 5 target of around $36.

Bottom pic is yesterdays, Wave 5 has become more of an ABC pattern but it has still hit a top around the original W.5 target.
I am not sure how valid the current W.5 is with that pattern ?

Would be interested in an AGET chart of this. (tech/a ?)

(click to enlarge)


----------



## tech/a

Boggo

Further to your PM.

There are a few AGET counts.
This first one is very similar to yours.






However there is another count which seems to coincide better with the weekly count.

First the daily





And now the weekly.





This can actually all workout correct ---if.

There is now 3 waves down in a corrective move ABC
Forming a new wave 4
Then finally a wave 5
Which would then see the wave count in chart 1 alter to a complete 5 wave count. Obviuosly the current wave labelling would alter.

But I think its safe to say that we are in for a correction on this chart.

One to watch.


----------



## Boggo

Thanks for that tech/a.
With Marketech I am limited to about a dozen stocks that can be traded long and short, NCM is one of those and its playing by the rules at the moment, the daily gaps make it harder to trade though.

Your second chart is interesting, ie. w.3 completed and a possible w.4 between $32 and $30, it also fits with the weekly, lets see how this pans out.

MTPredictor did predict the w.4 and w.5 targets accurately but it has now discarded the w.5 pattern for an ABC. It obviously doesn't like the shape of the w.5. 

(click to enlarge)


----------



## Sean K

This isn't going to plan at the moment. Gold up from Friday I think yet NCM falling off and through what should have been new support at previous resistance at $34. 

Profit takers taking over I guess. Had a good run...


----------



## prana

I sold for some short term volatility at 34. USD $1000 is quite a support line and broke, with AUD rising now, may see some sideways trading. Also the recent allocation means a lot of traders, would have sold some holdings onto the market increasing the volume. This would only short term. If gold keeps climbing, I think I'll keep holding some....


----------



## Aussiest

Should be interesting to see if it holds at $30, or down to $28.50?......................................


----------



## GumbyLearner

Great work by joint venture partner

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page1329?oid=280325&sn=Detail


----------



## Pierian

Well, it certainly has been a good morning for those who took up the share purchase plan.

I have already sold


----------



## Sean K

Upward move seems to have been halted a couple of days ago.

Looks like a nasty H&S playing out here.

Untidy.

Unless you've shorted it.


----------



## M34N

kennas said:


> Upward move seems to have been halted a couple of days ago.
> 
> Looks like a nasty H&S playing out here.
> 
> Untidy.
> 
> Unless you've shorted it.




So $26 or $24 the next step down? Looks like a good opportunity to re-enter there... if not already to be honest!

I was looking at a long yesterday afternoon, would of been a small profit today but simply wasn't worth the risk. I wonder if the market heads down again, will the gold miners follow or will they follow the gold price instead? Interesting times!


----------



## derty

I agree with M34N, seeing previous support there at $28-$29.  With the markets potentially resuming their downward motion, one would expect NCM to begin to go up. Though this may also be dependant on how much of the potential next leg down in the markets is due to banking woes making gold look attractive again. 

I have attached a couple of graphs, one a 12 month comparison between NCM XAO and GOLD and the other a 6 month comparison. The main feature that I am seeing especially in the last 4 months or so is that NCM and GOLD are a good fit (as to be expected) and both are antithetic to the XAO. So based on that and the support seen at $28 I am seriously considering a long in NCM or maybe one of the other gold stocks.

Is also interesting to see that GOLD was antithetic to the XAO for the last 12 months but really began to diverge since the carnage in September and NCM did not begin to show the same divergence until late November. I havent really looked into it though at a guess I imagine that the price of oil/energy coupled with the AUD/USD would be significant factors int he behaviour there.


----------



## Boggo

Went long this morning, stop just above $28.

Behaving fairly erratic at the moment as NCM usually does.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo

My stop at 28.10 is looking pretty nervous right now, only "in the red" trade for the week, can't complain.


----------



## Aussiest

NCM will go up with the price of gold. Gold is looking precarious right now. I wouldn't be surprised if Newcrest goes to $26.50, but don't take my word for it. I'm a fatalist. (Actually, <24 would be fatal). Lol.


----------



## Aussiest

Meh, i just liquidated my NCM position. Will see what happens over night and early next week. 

Wonder what will happen with the USD?


----------



## Boggo

Aussiest said:


> NCM will go up with the price of gold. Gold is looking precarious right now. I wouldn't be surprised if Newcrest goes to $26.50, but don't take my word for it. I'm a fatalist. (Actually, <24 would be fatal). Lol.






Aussiest said:


> Meh, i just liquidated my NCM position. Will see what happens over night and early next week.
> 
> Wonder what will happen with the USD?




I'm out too, lets see if it finds a bottom as you say at around the $26.50, was the only dampener on a good week for me.

Cheers


----------



## 2BAD4U

Interested in your wave count there Boggo.  I'm still learning EW and have the same ABC pattern and have been looking for NCM to hit 26.70 which is also where you have your "typical wave c".  A correction from this point was going to be my signal to enter long as I believe this would be the start of a larger wave 3.


----------



## Boggo

2BAD4U said:


> Interested in your wave count there Boggo.  I'm still learning EW and have the same ABC pattern and have been looking for NCM to hit 26.70 which is also where you have your "typical wave c".  A correction from this point was going to be my signal to enter long as I believe this would be the start of a larger wave 3.




I'd say that you are right, I think I may have jumped the gun a bit on this.
Will be interesting to see where it settles.


----------



## Aussiest

Well, it will depend on the price of gold and the aussie dollar won't it? It is my understanding that POG and newcrest basically move in unison. Or else, why would it go up? On TA alone?

The nov and dec lows of last year are correlated with POG, which sunk to $750.

Comments?


----------



## Boggo

I have been monitoring the GOLD chart (first chart), case of which came first though, the chicken or the egg.

The GOLD chart (as opposed to the chart of Gold-bottom chart) did seem to have a support level.


(click to expand)


----------



## Aussiest

Well, it's broken through $900.00. The next level is $850.00. Will be interesting to see what happens. I guess the overall sentiment of the market and the health of financial stocks (and the strength of the USD) seems to contribute to the POG.


----------



## Sean K

NCM raising my interest again, approaching significant support around the 26-28 zone. Not sure if that will correspond to a support line in POG. Must check.

Wonder of an EW'er would say this is a W2?


----------



## Aussiest

I'm not going to buy back in until $24.50-26.50. I already have some long which i didn't liquidate the other day.

At one stage the market depth was sell 195k buy units to sell 700k+ units. But, market depth can be misleading sometimes. WPL's depth has been in favour of buys for some time now, but the price keeps fluctuating.


----------



## Aussiest

Well, i wonder how NCM is going to go. POG down overnight.

I wonder if support at 30-30.50 will hold...

Back down to 28-28.50?


----------



## Aussiest

No updates on this thread. Anyone following this stock?

Strange SP behaivour over past few days. POG up, yet $30.00 resistance rejected > two days in a row. 

Amateur theory: gold and hence NCM (slightly linked) used as defensives in touch economic times. Reason price not rallied = punters unsure of economic 'recovery'??

Tentative prediction? Back down to support of $28ish... I was bullish on this, but now... unsure. Bearish short term.


----------



## sqwark7600

Aussiest said:


> No updates on this thread. Anyone following this stock?
> 
> Strange SP behaivour over past few days. POG up, yet $30.00 resistance rejected > two days in a row.
> 
> Amateur theory: gold and hence NCM (slightly linked) used as defensives in touch economic times. Reason price not rallied = punters unsure of economic 'recovery'??
> 
> Tentative prediction? Back down to support of $28ish... I was bullish on this, but now... unsure. Bearish short term.




I agree with your theory and hold NCM. Net operating profit has risen. This has been achieved due to strong gold prices as investors seek safe haven investments in response to the deteriorating USD. Their economy is shot. The probability is for a sudden rush into the gold miners once the USD achieves monopoly money status. But I'm sure you are ahead of the game.


----------



## prana

no suprise, gold isnt up that much in Aussie and energy prices are up - copper is good though. You can't forget currency and operating margin aside from technicals.


----------



## sqwark7600

prana said:


> no suprise, gold isnt up that much in Aussie and energy prices are up - copper is good though. You can't forget currency and operating margin aside from technicals.



I think it is best to take currency out of the equation by using the Oil/Gold ratio as an overbought or oversold indicator. The principle being that Gold price tends to trend with Oil price over time.
:sheep:


----------



## quarky

*Mining royalties are in dispute*
25/08/2009 8:34:00 AM

Cadia Valley Operations is at the centre of a legal dispute with the NSW State Government set to be heard by the High Court of Australia.

In a case with widespread consequences for the resources industry, the mine’s parent company, Newcrest Mining Limited, is seeking to exempt itself from paying royalties on copper extracted from operations south of Orange.

Newcrest believes the copper is a privately owned mineral and should not be subject to standard royalties while the government believes the copper, like gold, is a publicly owned resource that should be subject to normal royalty payments.

In May 2008 the NSW Supreme Court found in favour of Newcrest and ordered the State Government to refund $10.9 million in already paid royalties and interest.

The government appealed the decision to the NSW Court of Appeals.

In July this year the court ruled in favour of the government and upheld the appeal.

Newcrest has now sought to have the matter heard in the High Court of Australia.

Should the court rule in favour of Newcrest, taxpayers could miss out on millions of dollars in royalties from the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper to be mined over the next 21 years as part of the Cadia East underground project.

A spokesperson for Mineral Resources Minister Ian Macdonald yesterday said the Crown Solicitor’s Office had advised an appeal with the High Court had been filed by Newcrest.

No date has been set for the hearing.

“Therefore, as there is a court case pending, we are unable to comment further,” the spokesperson said.

Newcrest Mining Limited also declined to comment.


----------



## quarky

Newcrest (ASX:NCM) jumped on climbed 6.5 percent after gold climbed the most in more than five months. Gold price rallied overnight because investors were turning away from currencies to snap up the precious metal.


Code	Last	Move	% Move	Buy	Sell	Open	High	Low	Volume	Value	Last Traded
NCM 	31.51	1.930 	6.52% 	31.50	31.51	31.30	31.62	31.07	2,984,144	93,662,491	03-Sep 11:41:48 AM



wish i had bought some NCM last week, when I almost pressed <Enter> for a BUY


----------



## Gekko

Death, Taxes, and gold heading to $1000 withing days. The 3 certainties of life. NCM to spike again today with gold up to $995 overnight. Gold rush!


----------



## Sean K

Hmm, why has no one posted on this in so long. 

Not very exciting I supposed, just a very big company now.

If POG keeps going could be in the top few soon too.

Plus, just how big will they get through acquisition?

*Newcrest paves way for gold deals*
Reuters | Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:55

[miningmx.com] -- Newcrest Mining $8bn-plus acquisition of Lihir Gold is creating a new top-tier of Australian gold producers, which are already being sized up for takeovers. 

These include Thailand-focused Kingsgate Consolidated, Perseus Mining, with ground in West Africa, and Andean Resources, exploring in South America. 

Takeovers have denuded the top end of the Australian gold sector, leaving only a few vehicles with which institutions can ride the gold bull market outside of Newcrest, according to Warwick Grigor, who heads BGF Capital Group. 

Sino Gold fell into the hands of Eldorado Gold, Kinross Gold is offering about $7bn for Red Back Mining Inc and Lihir, now Newcrest, bought Africa-focused Equigold. 

"Perseus will get taken over at some point, but management is raising the bar through a very aggressive drilling program designed to disclose riches in the ground sooner rather than later, ensuring that a bidder pays a maximum price," Grigor said.


----------



## Sean K

Next tip is that NCM take OZ Minerals and they start diversifying more in to copper.

Perhaps spin off the African assets into a new company.


----------



## pavilion103

Does anyone think this is currently a low risk entry? 
Can we make a nice profit this week with a run up to $36?


----------



## awg

pavilion103 said:


> Does anyone think this is currently a low risk entry?
> Can we make a nice profit this week with a run up to $36?




Seems hostage to $A, if you can predict currency fluctuations, you would be a genius 

With cash cost about $500 per oz, you would expect more SP strength ?


----------



## pixel

pavilion103 said:


> Does anyone think this is currently a low risk entry?
> Can we make a nice profit this week with a run up to $36?



 Not quite low risk, pav;
I see it's struggling at a long-term rising support line, which hasn't been broken since April 2009.
If it can't find strength here and gap up by about $1 on Monday, I'd be rather concerned of more downside - potentially as low as $29.


----------



## pavilion103

Can someone please tell me my error of analysis here?

I thought that the volume on 26/11 was stopping volume and that prices moved up and then re-tested that low on lower volume. I thought all the supply must be gone and it's ready to move up.

Is it because the stock is still in a downtrend that I need to be more cautious? Is it that the volume on 26/11 wasn't really as significant as I thought at the time?

Thanks


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> Can someone please tell me my error of analysis here?
> 
> I thought that the volume on 26/11 was stopping volume and that prices moved up and then re-tested that low on lower volume. I thought all the supply must be gone and it's ready to move up.
> 
> Is it because the stock is still in a downtrend that I need to be more cautious? Is it that the volume on 26/11 wasn't really as significant as I thought at the time?
> 
> Thanks




Will assume u meant 26th Sept.

It was stopping vol, and it bounced 15%~ 
Been a while since that stopping vol. 
The retests werent on too low vol, and it became rangebound. Broke out of the box's downside after it couldn't run past $38
Also gotta keep in mind its a gold miner, so moves in gold generally trump out


----------



## pavilion103

skyQuake said:


> Will assume u meant 26th Sept.
> 
> It was stopping vol, and it bounced 15%~
> Been a while since that stopping vol.
> The retests werent on too low vol, and it became rangebound. Broke out of the box's downside after it couldn't run past $38
> Also gotta keep in mind its a gold miner, so moves in gold generally trump out




Thanks mate, 
Big help.
Sometimes I see stopping volume and think that the trend HAS to change and head up further. 
I can see that the re-tests were actually on some of the highest volume since then and then a lower top when it then began to fall. 

I get a thought in my mind about what I think will happen and then obviously manipulated everything in my mind to confirm my view. I was blinded to what was actually happening because I closed my mind to it. 

That is a great help. Thanks


----------



## pixel

pavilion103 said:


> Can someone please tell me my error of analysis here?
> 
> I thought that the volume on 26/11 was stopping volume and that prices moved up and then re-tested that low on lower volume. I thought all the supply must be gone and it's ready to move up.
> 
> Is it because the stock is still in a downtrend that I need to be more cautious? Is it that the volume on 26/11 wasn't really as significant as I thought at the time?
> 
> Thanks



 IMO it's not always depending on volume alone; price patterns come into play just as often. In this case, we had two "W" formations, which I explained in earlier posts as they evolved. Once the last "W" bounced back off the upper resistance (now marked as 0%) those moves were over, and NCM entered a new pattern, which, with a little "poetic license", we might consider a 4th attempt breakout. In any case, that was at t he back of my mind when I suggested a Low of $29, and I still consider that a reasonable possibility.




While the blue "A"s suggest accumulation may possibly be going on, the latest three candles could just as easily signal an attempt to halt the slide temporarily, in order to achieve a better overall sale result - assuming the interests behind current sales are Overseas players, intent on repatriating USD or EUR.


----------



## sreeve

2011 was an awful year for many stocks and stockmarkets around the world. Despite the global debt problems, many companies, particularly in the resources sector are making very healthy profits, are cashed up and have little or no debt. Newcrest Mining fits this criteria, but ended up falling *- 27.8%* in 2011, despite gold increasing by *10.0%*. Newcrest, like many other miners had its worst year since the commodity boom started a decade ago.

Increasingly, it now seems that Newcrest, BHP Billiton and other resource stocks are a proxy for world sharemarkets rather than move up or down on their company fundamentals or value of commodities of which they produce.






Newcrest’s market cap at the end of 2011 was $22.7 bn (down from $30.9 bn at end of 2010). Newcrest now accounts for around 47% of total gold company market cap (*excludes copper focused miners such as BHP, OZL, PNA).

The next largest gold stocks are RRL (at $1.5 bn), PRU (at $1.1 bn) and EVN (at $1.05bn).






Cheers
Scott


----------



## skc

sreeve said:


> 2011 was an awful year for many stocks and stockmarkets around the world. Despite the global debt problems, many companies, particularly in the resources sector are making very healthy profits, are cashed up and have little or no debt. Newcrest Mining fits this criteria, but ended up falling *- 27.8%* in 2011, despite gold increasing by *10.0%*. Newcrest, like many other miners had its worst year since the commodity boom started a decade ago.
> 
> Increasingly, it now seems that Newcrest, BHP Billiton and other resource stocks are a proxy for world sharemarkets rather than move up or down on their company fundamentals or value of commodities of which they produce.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Newcrest’s market cap at the end of 2011 was $22.7 bn (down from $30.9 bn at end of 2010). Newcrest now accounts for around 47% of total gold company market cap (*excludes copper focused miners such as BHP, OZL, PNA).
> 
> The next largest gold stocks are RRL (at $1.5 bn), PRU (at $1.1 bn) and EVN (at $1.05bn).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers
> Scott




The NCM yearly chart may be better shown on a log scare to show relative volativility?  I suspect that red candle around 1992 is a lot lower percentage wise than 2011.

Interesting bubble chart. What did you use to create that?


----------



## sreeve

skc said:


> The NCM yearly chart may be better shown on a log scare to show relative volativility?  I suspect that red candle around 1992 is a lot lower percentage wise than 2011.
> 
> Interesting bubble chart. What did you use to create that?




NCM fell 54.7% in 1992 and 66.6% in 1997, but of course it was an entirely different company in the 1990s, the gold market was out of favour, and the debt-cycle was in full steam. Consider that to the fundamentals today: central banks net buyers of gold (first time in decades), countries accumulating large positions in gold, China and India now participating in the gold market in a huge way, debt-cycle is over with Europe, US and others going to have problems for decades to come.

Bubble chart is of 340 ASX companies which I've put together into an Excel database over the last couple of years. I will be releasing a PDF of the database on my website in the next week or so (if anyone would like a copy).


----------



## skc

sreeve said:


> NCM fell 54.7% in 1992 and 66.6% in 1997, but of course it was an entirely different company in the 1990s, the gold market was out of favour, and the debt-cycle was in full steam. Consider that to the fundamentals today: central banks net buyers of gold (first time in decades), countries accumulating large positions in gold, China and India now participating in the gold market in a huge way, debt-cycle is over with Europe, US and others going to have problems for decades to come.
> 
> Bubble chart is of 340 ASX companies which I've put together into an Excel database over the last couple of years. I will be releasing a PDF of the database on my website in the next week or so (if anyone would like a copy).




Interesting. I use Webiress market map which is basically square boxes rather than bubbles to represent market cap. 

I guess it depends on whether you are visually stimulated by squares or circles


----------



## sreeve

skc said:


> Interesting. I use Webiress market map which is basically square boxes rather than bubbles to represent market cap.
> 
> I guess it depends on whether you are visually stimulated by squares or circles




Here's a tree map. I prefer bubbles


----------



## tronic72

skc said:


> The NCM yearly chart may be better shown on a log scare to show relative volativility?  I suspect that red candle around 1992 is a lot lower percentage wise than 2011.
> 
> Interesting bubble chart. What did you use to create that?




Nice buying opportunity at the moment. Sitting close to 3 year lows.


----------



## mrlister

At 3 year lows now, even though the price if gold didn't move dramatically. Nervous times overnight if the price of gold dips


----------



## notting

Got a bit trigger happy today with this one.
 Hope it's a fake down through long time support at 30.
 If not that may be new resistance for some time.
Whoopsi.


----------



## skc

notting said:


> Got a bit trigger happy today with this one.
> Hope it's a fake down through long time support at 30.
> If not that may be new resistance for some time.
> Whoopsi.




The Indonesian situation spooked the holders a bit as well. Anyone knows the relative size of NCM's operation in Indonesia?



> Newcrest Mining, which last week said it believed ''the changes do not apply to the existing contract of work for the Gosowong mine'', said it stood by that comment, as the permit held for Gosowong was not captured by the divestment rule published last week.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/indo...o-new-deals-20120316-1vaj8.html#ixzz1pYmEOa48


----------



## notting

Makes a mockery of of the "Remarkable Indonesia add" they have been pawning off to the global investment community. Perhaps Banbang is implementing some pointers he got from the honourable member for Griffith whilst he was mixing it abroad!


----------



## mrlister

notting said:


> Got a bit trigger happy today with this one.
> Hope it's a fake down through long time support at 30.
> If not that may be new resistance for some time.
> Whoopsi.




Your not alone there. I did the same......twice!!


----------



## mrlister

Anyone got any idea as to the current drop?


----------



## blue0810

mrlister said:


> Anyone got any idea as to the current drop?




Gold  is  Red.


----------



## mrlister

anyone got a real answer?


----------



## blue0810

As  21/3/12  some  Gold stock .
-1.88	NCM
0.63	KCN
-9.03	MML
-0.42	PRU
-3.71	RSG
-1.15	TRY
0.6	SLR
0.73	RRL
-2.33	SFR

NCMGY – 2.93% 
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


----------



## mrlister

The price of gold hast dropped that much of late, well not beyond the big 5% a while back.


----------



## qldfrog

mrlister said:


> The price of gold hast dropped that much of late, well not beyond the big 5% a while back.



yet nothing to justify NCM going from $36 to $28 in one month
during that time gold only went from 1615 to 1514 in AUD..a mystery especially as it is a well manage company making money by the bucket..I own far too much of these shares....
NCM did not follow the gold rise either and was lagging behind..any real clue welcome


----------



## mrlister

Somewhere above it was mentioned it may be due to the Indonesian mining tax. Yet ncm say they are immune for now. Maybe they aren't as immune as they say?


----------



## sinner

I would say it's not NCM specific, qldfrog.

In spite of the currency differences, the major gold indices (XGD.ASX, XGD.TO, GDX.NYSE) are all moving in sync and the direction is not up.

As for an explanation, if I had to bet on one, it would be the high oil price keeping the avg cost of production/oz for the industry moving up.


----------



## mrlister

Good start today along the road to recovery. Hope it keeps going


----------



## blue0810

Yes most of Gold stocks are up today. Including NCM ~ 2.% so far

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=15598


----------



## mrlister

When we refer to the price of gold, is it the spot price or the comex price?


----------



## Renitent_Precept

In sympathy with the rest of the miners? Most dropped off today, but not nearly as much...


----------



## skyQuake

Renitent_Precept said:


> In sympathy with the rest of the miners? Most dropped off today, but not nearly as much...




Cut gold output guidance. Market went in to the result with a negative view already.
Looks pretty bad and cracks new lows


----------



## skc

Renitent_Precept said:


> In sympathy with the rest of the miners? Most dropped off today, but not nearly as much...




They downgraded production guidance.

You can see company announcement on various sites... here being the first obvious place to look.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/todayAnns.do


----------



## Renitent_Precept

Do you think it'll keep dropping?


----------



## mrlister

Surely it can't fall too much more, unless gold price bottoms out. If I had some spare pennies Lyin around I'd love to get some.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mrlister said:


> Surely it can't fall too much more, unless gold price bottoms out. If I had some spare pennies Lyin around I'd love to get some.




Everytime I look at the chart I shy away. The Australian had a good article today on why it is such a dog. Could have been yesterday. I have been spending opm on Hamilton these last few days.

gg


----------



## Renitent_Precept

Any chance you could link? I had a quick look and couldn't find this article.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Renitent_Precept said:


> Any chance you could link? I had a quick look and couldn't find this article.




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...uction-downgrade/story-e6frg9df-1226337134454

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Overview 
Production for the March 2012 quarter was 532,237 ounces of  gold and 18,072 tonnes of copper.  Cash costs were $609 per ounce and cash margins remained robust at $978 per ounce.  Newcrest’s major project expansions at Cadia Valley and Lihir remain on schedule for first commercial production, and on budget.  Exploration proceeded to plan during the quarter with 48 drill rigs operating.   

Record quarterly production was achieved at Gosowong, whilst production at Telfer and Bonikro was in line with the prior quarter.  Production at Lihir, Cadia Valley and Hidden Valley was below that of the prior  quarter.  As previously announced Lihir has experienced plant reliability issues which are in the process of being re ctified; production in the quarter was also adversely impacted by heavy rainfall.  High rainfall also adversely impacted production at Cadia Valley and Hidden Valley in the quarter.   < _Note - it hasn't rained for over a month now - UF_>

Exploration activities during the quarter confirmed the presence of a new zone of high grade mineralisation at Lihir and demonstrated the continuity of high grade mineralisation at Golpu. At Telfer, drilling has highlighted the potential for delivery of new underground and open pit resour ces.  The search for new greenfield discoveries was marked by the commencement of drilling within the highly prospective Wafi  Transfer Zone and within the CÃ´te d’Ivoire regional tenement package. 

Guidance  

Please refer to separate announcement made today. 

Key Points 
   Quarterly gold production 532,237oz (579,073oz in the December 2011 quarter) 
   Quarterly copper production 18,072t (18,171t) 
   Quarterly cash cost A$609/oz (A$606/oz) 
   Gross cash margin A$978/oz (A$1,042/oz) 
   Major growth projects Cadia East and Lihir MOPU remain on schedule for first commercial production and on budget 
   Cadia East 75% complete; Lihir MOPU 82% complete 
   New zone of high grade mineralisation confirmed at Lihir  
   Continuity of high grade mineralisation confirmed at Golpu 
   Drilling commenced of the Wafi Transfer Zone 
   Toronto Stock Exchange secondary listing completed


----------



## alexandro

I feel it is very near to a rebound taking place. I base it on previous steep declines and rebounds. The common steep decline from a peak measures 18-26%. Steepest declines have measured 26-30% from the peak. We are curently at 27%. If we allow it to go to 30% from the peak of $36.10 earlier on in the year, then we have about another 75cents to fall (3%). take 75c off todays low of $26.27 gives about $25.50. At $25.50, load up. If it goes to 25, then load up more. If it goes to 24, then put the house on it and go to the bank and get more to put on it and watch it climb back up to 32-36. Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.


----------



## notting

alexandro said:


> Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.



Then wake up in wet Pajamas and say, "****, it was just a dreeaaam!!!"


----------



## alexandro

It's good to dream. Anyway, the point is that NCM is due for and not far from a rebound based on previous chart action. It is a very wild volatile stock that can go up as strongly as it does down. There is a 2-3 dollar upside at least. If you buy 10,000 of them, that a neat 30k.


----------



## JTLP

notting said:


> Then wake up in wet Pajamas and say, "****, it was just a dreeaaam!!!"




LOL! Top 10 so far this year - awesome joke.



alexandro said:


> It's good to dream. Anyway, the point is that NCM is due for and not far from a rebound based on previous chart action. It is a very wild volatile stock that can go up as strongly as it does down. There is a 2-3 dollar upside at least. If you buy 10,000 of them, that a neat 30k.




$2-$3 upside? Worst. Advice. Ever. It should be deleted - you've provided no foundation for this aside from saying NCM has wild swings. What if there is a volcano eruption in Lihir island? Your dreams of wild parties and sex will turn to the need to have sex to sustain a living. Provide some basis and don't assume everybody is throwing around money like candy - especially in today's society.


----------



## alexandro

I gave more basis than most. Perhaps you didn't pay attention to the numbers and percentages I presented. I spelt out what I based it on and even said, "I base it on......". Just so I wouldn't get anyone telling me I had no basis. But some people just need to critical and rude. Pull out the chart and study it.


----------



## ROE

NCM has operational issues and very average management
It takes good operation managers to pull off what NCM promise but they dont seem
to have those people in place.

If they dont pull their act together and they missed next year production target
the market not going to forgive you next time and you can sit back and watch all those stocks that went before NCM to what happen to them after management lost their credibility...

1. No one believe a word you say
2. No one pay attention to your charts and figures
3. People dont buy your stocks until you proven yourself again.


----------



## notting

Well Alex, it's hit your buy target of 25.50.  So hopefully you have not managed to make it to the bank yet to put your future on it as it has done so with strong volume and the day has not even ended!!.
The down trend appears to be accelerating and the next support is around $24.00.
You'd imagine it might find some support there, as the PE is getting more acceptable, however, what you would want to see is a bit of a base form and then an increase in volume as it heads back up! (to be very basic)
With that you might want to consider the probability of whether the US is recovering enough to see if money is going to be printed or not in the near future.  
If money printing remains unlikely then the benchmark gold price is likely to stay soft as it is measured against US$. 
Which would leave a take over of the poor management as a realistic hope( as apposed to hoping the market stays stupid which it can do) for your dreams to come true.
Black or Red?
Alive or Dead!!
Casino's open.


----------



## mrlister

Warren Buffett's philosophy was to only buy strong companies or brands when they are struggling, as they will almost always recover. 

if i had spare money, id buy some NCM now.


----------



## Chasero

mrlister said:


> Warren Buffett's philosophy was to only buy strong companies or brands when they are struggling, as they will almost always recover.
> 
> if i had spare money, id buy some NCM now.




But gold shares are struggling atm.

Look at AZH, NST, RED etc.

Even the bigger players such as NCM is not immune.

Cheap can still get cheaper imo.

24 Apr 2012 	26.600 	-3.62% 	26.870 	26.270 	9,155,833
23 Apr 2012 	27.600 	-1.6% 	27.830 	27.420 	4,665,113
20 Apr 2012 	28.050 	-0.39% 	28.240 	27.950 	3,617,434
19 Apr 2012 	28.160 	-1.68% 	28.735 	28.090 	5,521,578

-4% today.

Counter rally may be soon but too risky to jump in just yet.


----------



## mrlister

if it gets close to 24 ill definitely be making some money free to get a few. as for RED, they are set to release a quarterly in the coming few days. With the last quarter being a eventful one with them, first capital raising, then commercial production announced, you'd think people are waiting to see the financial position before investing there.

NST has never really recovered the confidence of investors since their last CR.


----------



## Chasero

mrlister said:


> if it gets close to 24 ill definitely be making some money free to get a few. as for RED, they are set to release a quarterly in the coming few days. With the last quarter being a eventful one with them, first capital raising, then commercial production announced, you'd think people are waiting to see the financial position before investing there.
> 
> NST has never really recovered the confidence of investors since their last CR.




I think there is just negative sentiment regarding gold stocks in general.

Look at GOR (very speccy I know) but it has dropped 50% in two months.

AMX $2 in November now $1.

Fact is, market is telling us something. Gold sector is NOT hot.

Hence why I think everyone saying NCM is cheap at $24 better be in it in the long haul. 

NCM fundamentals are there. I am just worried the market will look the other way and it will never recover.

*just my view* Who knows 25.5 could be the bottom?


----------



## Sean K

alexandro said:


> I feel it is very near to a rebound taking place. I base it on previous steep declines and rebounds. The common steep decline from a peak measures 18-26%. Steepest declines have measured 26-30% from the peak. We are curently at 27%. If we allow it to go to 30% from the peak of $36.10 earlier on in the year, then we have about another 75cents to fall (3%). take 75c off todays low of $26.27 gives about $25.50. At $25.50, load up. If it goes to 25, then load up more. If it goes to 24, then put the house on it and go to the bank and get more to put on it and watch it climb back up to 32-36. Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.



In regards to justification for price gains this is one of the more adventurous I have seen in some years. Quite unique actually. Not seen anything like it really. Nice work.

In my opinion, this company is simply cursed by the hand of Smith.


----------



## Chasero

kennas said:


> In regards to justification for price gains this is one of the more adventurous I have seen in some years. Quite unique actually. Not seen anything like it really. Nice work.
> 
> In my opinion, this company is simply cursed by the hand of Smith.




I've heard it all.

Sell the kitchen sink.

Mortgage the house.

Sell the car.

Of COURSE it will bounce


----------



## notting

Chasero said:


> I've heard it all.
> 
> Of COURSE it will bounce




So enter at tomorrows opening price?
 Or where? 
What price will you sell it at after stating your entry. No need for a stop I guess if it's a sure bounce!
You may want to say why also.
You know something like, 'of course it will bounce by 3.5% off tomorrows opening by Wednesday the following week because this is my 777th post in ASF and that's my lucky number!'


----------



## alexandro

Put my money where my mouth is and went in heavy at $25.49. I think the price here is well in the value zone. Need to take risk to make money and better take it here at 25's than at 36, 38 or 42 dollars.

It can go near to 24 during this slide and that will make it a 34% fall in total (a 34%'er happened in the GFC panic). If it does, then the thing to do would be to double up because 34% will certainly ensure  a reversal. 

We are in reversal teritory. Lets see what happens in the next 1-3 days.


----------



## skyQuake

Price action near the close looked good yesterday. Good volume overnight too. Would be surprised if we take out yesterdays low anytime soon


----------



## notting

alexandro said:


> Put my money where my mouth is and went in heavy at $25.49.




Well, not much to say now other than I hope it goes well for you, backing yourself helps the learning curve.



skyQuake said:


> Price action near the close looked good yesterday. Good volume overnight too. Would be surprised if we take out yesterdays low anytime soon



Would you have a stop at 25.39 ish?


----------



## Chasero

"Commodities benefitted from renewed hopes for "QE3" - a third round of monetary easing - following comments by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday that the central bank was keeping its options open. The possibility of another round of money-printing pushed the US dollar lower overnight.

Gold pushed to a two-week high as traders sought alternative stores of wealth to the greenback. Gold for June delivery was lately ahead $14.70 or 0.9% at US$1,657 an ounce"

Day traders might buy in today.

Will probably bounce? Will watch with interest.

Gotta be careful its not a dead cat.


----------



## Renitent_Precept

Almost midday and I'm somewhat surprised it hasn't fallen over.


----------



## notting

Only real negative thus far today is that it came out of the blocks flat after strong overnight trade.
The close will be interesting, if the neg is still dominating it would try to make it back to the open or lower.
Otherwise so far so good as volume is favouring the up moves till 11:30 lull time.


----------



## Sean K

alexandro said:


> Put my money where my mouth is and went in heavy at $25.49.



Nice work. My platform tells me the low was $25.52 today.


----------



## alexandro

It seems people were expecting it to jump up strong and power on all day, but it doesn't work like that. After such a plunge, she is a little tender and needs a few days. I think it did ok today. A climb up is certain to start but probably needs a few candlesticks hanging around and perhaps even pay low 25 a visit. Rebounds are typically something like 12, 17 and 21%. Todays candlestick is contained within yesterday's long black candlestick, that's a good sign.

Looking at the chart, the distance between the peak of 36.10 and the break of support at 30 is $6. Take that away from the 30 support level and we have $24. A fall to 24 may be required to complete that nice curve down that has formed. It has the form of a -x^3 curve with the inflexion point at 30 bucks. 

Kennas, I see you know Koh Lipe island. Have you been there?
Notting, thanks. No, I don't have a stop and don't use one.


----------



## notting

God this is funny.  
I just hope it ends well!


----------



## Sean K

alexandro said:


> A climb up is certain to start but probably needs a few candlesticks hanging around
> 
> ......
> 
> It has the form of a -x^3 curve with the inflexion point at 30 bucks.




I was recently ready about the 'candlesticks hanging around' formation and yes, it seems to be a very bullish one.

The -x^3 curve is also a good one.


Yes, been to Lipe. Very nice, relatively unknown hippy paradise. Highly recommended. Stay at the non-hippy Serendipity Resort.


----------



## notting

It's a dreamy weekend.





Just a tad concerned, however, about Fridays flat open, soft close and time of year, not to mention it's trend.
So holding back the house at this point.


----------



## TrendGAIN

I agree with that candle work below. Massive volume spike and a down day, then an inverted hammer on greater volume. Exhaustion doesn't always mean a bounce, but looking at the brokers, they are all bullish on it and are waiting for NCM to actually hit their production targets. I would need to see a trend reversal and new highs on the OBV for me to be in, but it would be nice ride to the consensus price target of $35!


----------



## alexandro

JTLP said:


> $2-$3 upside? Worst. Advice. Ever. It should be deleted - you've provided no foundation for this aside from saying NCM has wild swings. What if there is a volcano eruption in Lihir island? Your dreams of wild parties and sex will turn to the need to have sex to sustain a living. Provide some basis and don't assume everybody is throwing around money like candy - especially in today's society.




JTLP, looks like I don't need to resort to having sex to sustain a living as you suggested may happen to me. All is going to plan. The foundation of going in after a 30% fall was a decent foundation after all.


----------



## skyQuake

notting said:


> Well, not much to say now other than I hope it goes well for you, backing yourself helps the learning curve.
> 
> 
> Would you have a stop at 25.39 ish?




Initial stop there, moved to today's low now. First target gap fill @ 27.42


----------



## JTLP

alexandro said:


> JTLP, looks like I don't need to resort to having sex to sustain a living as you suggested may happen to me. All is going to plan. The foundation of going in after a 30% fall was a decent foundation after all.




Don't get me wrong - I hope you succeed to the fullest. It was your advice and how it was presented that was very iffy (as other members have pointed out).

Kudos to you if you get your 30%


----------



## alexandro

No problem JTLP.

Have a feeling it might close under 26 again, something close to 25.50 again before it resumes up to close the gap at 27.42.

It just has to do that because it is a nasty stock and can't just go up peacefully as other shares do.


----------



## notting

alexandro said:


> No problem JTLP.
> It just has to do that because it is a nasty stock and can't just go up peacefully as other shares do.



I'd like some of those other shares please Alex!?

Thinking out aloud-
NCM is looking a bit shaky and 3% down on Friday was one of it's more extreme gyrations to the downside for a while which is a bit scarry.  The uplift was on fairly week volume.
Although, like you I find it hard to see why it shouldn't be 25ish even if gold was 12500 again given it's assets and potential for inflation over the medium to longer term.
It should be getting a little support from the weakening AU$ to counter gold dropping against the US$ which is why, in general, gold is out of favour right at the minute.
There is little reason why Europ shouldn't go spastic any time soon!! That will again harm gold against the US$.
I just think it's probably going to go sidways in a similar range to the last 2 weeks for  while.


----------



## notting

Put my house on it Alex?
It's now $24.03
What do you think?


----------



## pixel

fwiw, I have two low targets for NCM:

$22.50'ish within the next week or two
If it doesn't find support there, we're down to the 2008 Lows.

That's mainly based on T/A and Fibonacci extensions, but when I consider the problems NCM's bought into with the acquisition of Lihir (who failed to maintain plant and equipment) then I can see lots more trouble brewing, not simply sovereign risk.


----------



## Chasero

If I put my 'house' on this @ 25.5, I'd be sitting on a paper loss anywhere between 25-35k.

Takes a lot of stomach to have that much invested in 1 stock. And an even bigger stomach to seeing huge 5 digit losses.

Then again, people were jumping up and down when QBE hit $11. And look at it now.


----------



## Sean K

notting said:


> Put my house on it Alex?
> It's now $24.03
> What do you think?



Maybe he's averaged down and still going to make a motza? 

Should have been support across $25 ish. Maybe on the low points in 06, 07, and late 08 around $20 next?

I think Alex's tea leaves predicted it might go to $24 on this slide.... Remarkable.


----------



## alexandro

Feedback:

I have not been here for some time as I have been posting on another site as it is more active there. 

I am not ashamed to say that the past 2 trading sessions was very intense as I did see large falls appearing on my screen from some NCM stock I held onto after the recent trade. I gave back the $1 gain from 25.50 to 26.50 I had successfully made. 

I apologise I made it sound easy in my previous posts,  as I can tell you, in practise, that it was not easy to do. I should have written, “Buy only the amount of stock that suits your individual risk, pain and fear threshold/profile”. Making money on the stock market involves a different kind of effort and that involves a unique kind of pain. A bounce or uptrend is usually preceded with a gap down or large price action that causes pain.

I am happy to say however, that I did not fold under the pressure and did follow through with what I said in my posts. I think the potential $24 target I calculated and mentioned in my previous posts helped me as it made me prepared.

Gold price is a complex thing.  More recent falls in NCM is now not to do with NCM’s recent production downgrade. NCM is now under the effects of global forces and mechanisms. Other large gold producers in the US have also been declining just as NCM has. So it is gold in general. For the benefit of those who may not be familiar and as I posted elsewhere,

1. Investors are moving their money to US dollars as a safe haven and not to gold, against recent European uncertainty and driving up the US dollar. Since gold is sold in US currency, it makes gold more expensive to buy for people using other weaker currencies. A strong US dollar causes the gold price to fall. 

2. Investors selling gold and other stocks and going to cash. 

3. In recent times, investors not as hopeful on QE3 (as before) and other stimulation action by governments that causes inflation and which gold is used to hedge against.

and, 

4. Some investors are starting to think that the decade long gold rally is coming to an end.
and believe it or not,

5. Warren Buffet told his followers on the weekend how he was not a fan of gold and that it is a poor investment. Warren Buffet has never liked gold and has always made his view on gold clear. Even in 1999 when gold was 270US/ounce. Warren was clearly wrong in not believing in gold at that price.

NCM's recent production downgrade has now been lost in all the above. Gold's future, world gold stocks in general and NCM's share price is going to be governed by the forces above and for how long these forces or sentiment lasts.

Notice that all 4 mechanisms can change overnight.

This post is my opinion only. Buy only the amount of stock that suits your individual risk, pain and fear threshold/profile.


----------



## alexandro

Here is a plot of the historic P/E ratio calculated using the share price at 30 June of each year and Earnings Per Share (EPS) as obtained from a NCM balance sheet.

Earnings are steady and at their highest, Share price has fallen off significantly and is at a 4 year low and the P/E ratio is at historic lows.

The data shows the market had no problem paying $37.71 per share at 30 June 2011 when the P/E ratio was 25.7 and earnings were $1.47. But now at 23.75, with a P/E of 15.7, nobody wants to buy it.

Earnings per share is forecast at $1.51 for 30 June 2012. What will it really be at the August profit announcement, we don't know. But if it comes in near last years $1.47 per share or $1.058 billion, then why should the share price be the current $26 and not around the $38-$40 mark as it was weeks following last year’s profit?

The current share price level and the talked-about targets of 21.60, 22, 23 and 24 that may follow in the weeks and months ahead will not be lasting unless there are significant production issues and significant falls in the value of gold and company earnings. Seems prices in the low 20's will purely be created by shorts, fear, panic and the need for the chart to complete a bearish pennant pattern and chart fill at 21.76 area.
I continue to believe that NCM share price can and will go up to $30-36 as dramatically as it did down. That is a $10 gain from here. 
This post contains my opinion only. Buy only the amount of stock that suits your individual risk, pain and fear threshold/profile.


----------



## notting

That's all well and good but unless you actually bought a bucket load yesterday when it seemed like the last thing on earth you would want to buy it's meaningless!
Apart from that so far you can claim the title of 'The Prophet'.
If you put the house on it yesterday, today's title is the profit, especially if you take it!


----------



## Renitent_Precept

Nup...I was stopped out yesterday. Annoyed that it bounced back so quickly after smashing through my stop.


----------



## pixel

my chart is suggesting an ascending triangle with a solid chance of the 4th break attempt succeeding.
As the Gold sector is trailing the field today, this could be a chance to get set --- assuming one believes in a sustained recovery into the end of FY.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I do not know what the muppets running NCM have been doing, (I don't follow it,) over the last two years when gold has had one of it's biggest runs in history, it has dropped from $42 to $24.

Whatever they have been doing they have been doing it wrong.

I would not consider dipping my toes until the gap around $26, $27 was filled and it was heading north on volume.

This is one sick chart heading south. Elliot could have done a text book wave study on it. 






gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do not know what the muppets running NCM have been doing, (I don't follow it,) over the last two years when gold has had one of it's biggest runs in history, it has dropped from $42 to $24.
> 
> Whatever they have been doing they have been doing it wrong.
> 
> I would not consider dipping my toes until the gap around $26, $27 was filled and it was heading north on volume.



Yes, ordinary effort. Smith jumped ship at the right time. They should have sold off the minor projects straight away and focussed on finding/buying and developing tier 1. Or, combined the W African projects and spun them off.  



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Elliot could have done a text book wave study on it.
> 
> gg



Only in retrospect. And after ignoring half the highs and lows.


----------



## skc

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do not know what the muppets running NCM have been doing, (I don't follow it,) over the last two years when gold has had one of it's biggest runs in history, it has dropped from $42 to $24.
> 
> Whatever they have been doing they have been doing it wrong.




gg,

Your three charts tonight.

NCM bought Lihir.
AMP bought AXA.
SWM bought WAN.

History (and finance textbooks) tells us that most major acquisitions are value destructive to the acquirer...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

skc said:


> gg,
> 
> Your three charts tonight.
> 
> NCM bought Lihir.
> AMP bought AXA.
> SWM bought WAN.
> 
> History (and finance textbooks) tells us that most major acquisitions are value destructive to the acquirer...




Good point.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Stunned Mulletville??

Starting to get interesting now that we have the waterfall into an inverse h&s?? Or, are the fundamentals the same as they were the last time the sp was at $22 back in 2008?

 Just have to watch it doesn't tag along with any general equity market sell-off as well? I'll dip my small toe in here........

Has anyone mentioned the T word yet (take-over)??


----------



## Gundini

skc said:


> NCM bought Lihir.
> AMP bought AXA.
> SWM bought WAN.
> 
> History (and finance textbooks) tells us that most major acquisitions are value destructive to the acquirer...






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Good point.
> 
> gg






Uncle Festivus said:


> Has anyone mentioned the T word yet (take-over)??




Who would be in the position to takeover a company this large in these times. And going on the "History" and "Finance Textbooks" above, the takeover company would surely be the SHORT of the century....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Gundini said:


> Who would be in the position to takeover a company this large in these times. And going on the "History" and "Finance Textbooks" above, the takeover company would surely be the SHORT of the century....




Depends on the price you pay - on many levels NCM is now very attractive.....relative to the POG.

There are several suitors who could tap the cheap finance available via the Fed etc.

Coming into a zone of long term support from long term holders.

Another nibble.....


----------



## StevieY

Uncle Festivus said:


> Depends on the price you pay - on many levels NCM is now very attractive.....relative to the POG.
> 
> There are several suitors who could tap the cheap finance available via the Fed etc.
> 
> Coming into a zone of long term support from long term holders.
> 
> Another nibble.....





NCM looks attractive at $25.75 today.....


----------



## Joe Blow

StevieY said:


> NCM looks attractive at $25.75 today.....




Hi Stevie, why does NCM look attractive at $25.75?


----------



## jancha

Joe Blow said:


> Hi Stevie, why does NCM look attractive at $25.75?




All the Goldies look pretty ugly if you ask me with the exception of NST.
Looks like Stevie may have bought some. Cant see any other reason for the comment with it's current trending down.
Gold dropped today by $7 and most Gold stocks dropped between 2.5% - 5%.
What would NCM be tomorrow if Gold were to drop $30 over night?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A chart perhaps?

In support zone - arrows from previous post showing buys and subsequent sell (must keep an eye on my trailing stops!)

Depends if the general market tanks for support to hold, then looking to buy again?


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> A chart perhaps?
> 
> In support zone - arrows from previous post showing buys and subsequent sell (must keep an eye on my trailing stops!)
> 
> Depends if the general market tanks for support to hold, then looking to buy again?



Yeah, general line of support. Not absolutely 'attractive' support, but maybe cute support. You know, ugly but interesting.


----------



## StevieY

Joe Blow said:


> Hi Stevie, why does NCM look attractive at $25.75?





Hi Joe, dunno, just a thought. with all the jitters in the market, just thought gold would get its safe haven status again and thought today's dip was a way to get back into NCM. 

Am still a newbie, happy to learn from others thoughts and comments. 

Cheers
Steve


----------



## StevieY

Wow...another 3% drop again today...what gives?


----------



## Sean K

StevieY said:


> Wow...another 3% drop again today...what gives?



Maybe just general market sentiment. Gold steady, but this is the stock market. Not holding $26 support may have been a trigger for some traders. And the world works in mysterious ways. Looks like support at $24, check the chart and see where it previously bounced and was held up around there in May, Jul, Sep.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

StevieY said:


> Wow...another 3% drop again today...what gives?



Finished down 4.4% - next 'targets' support @ $24 then double bottom @ $22?


----------



## skc

kennas said:


> Maybe just general market sentiment. Gold steady, but this is the stock market. Not holding $26 support may have been a trigger for some traders. And the world works in mysterious ways. Looks like support at $24, check the chart and see where it previously bounced and was held up around there in May, Jul, Sep.




Gold stocks really underperformed gold since the quarterly reports. Don't really know why...

NCM has fallen but look at others like SBM, PRU and KCN have went through even more dramatic down moves.


----------



## StevieY

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Kennas, Uncle Festivus and skc. Appreciate it. 

Went in for a small parcel at $24.50 to get me toes wet.  

Was also thinking of the GOLD ETF...

Cheers
Steve


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Aiming for about $24.60 today on gold sell off? Not buying, yet.....





Doing worse than it's peers? US Gold & Silver Index & $US gold.


----------



## willstor

Based on recent developments the market says NCM is now worth 22.20 from 30.11 previously...
I disagree and I have bought...if I'm wrong tranche 2 is 19.50


----------



## Sean K

willstor said:


> Based on recent developments the market says NCM is now worth 22.20 from 30.11 previously...
> I disagree and I have bought...if I'm wrong tranche 2 is 19.50



Any specific reasons why you disagree willstor? Is it the gold price in general or NCM underperformance? You think that the production at Lihir is going to improve? They'll spin off Africa? Be taken over? Sack the CEO for lounging about?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

If inflation returns in 2013, as tech/a on another thread predicts, then gold should go up or stay around about the same.

I've never been able to understand how companies like NCM can have such a low sp, with such a huge increase in the gold price over recent years.

Perhaps they employ muppets to look after their hedge book.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If inflation returns in 2013, as tech/a on another thread predicts, then gold should go up or stay around about the same.
> 
> I've never been able to understand how companies like NCM can have such a low sp, with such a huge increase in the gold price over recent years.
> 
> Perhaps they employ muppets to look after their hedge book.
> 
> gg



In addition to the muppets, CAPEX / OPEX has probably doubled in the past four years also. AUD is a bit of a problem for local producers too I think.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

kennas said:


> In addition to the muppets, CAPEX / OPEX has probably doubled in the past four years also. AUD is a bit of a problem for local producers too I think.




Thanks kennas,

Can you expand on CAPEX / OPEX. ??Capital expenditure/ Operational expenditure ?? and it's effects on Gold shares.

I could google it but prefer to hear it from a fellow ASF member. I have shied away from Gold shares as don't understand their lassitude. 

gg


----------



## willstor

kennas said:


> Any specific reasons why you disagree willstor? Is it the gold price in general or NCM underperformance? You think that the production at Lihir is going to improve? They'll spin off Africa? Be taken over? Sack the CEO for lounging about?




For me the price reflects a knee jerk reaction to  positive news / rumours from the US, the likes ofNCM  PRU being hauled down by additional taxes on production, the decline in the gold price and the popularity of defensive stocks on the ASX. All are over stated. 

NCM are closing in on a 3 year low despite very solid results and dividend outlook with Macquarie standing by a price target of 30 bucks. PWC say gold is the commodity of 2013... I disagree with that, however  i will predict NCM will hit 27 within the next 4 to 5 months and pay a solid div.

What you may well see is a relief rally in gold stocks when the US kick the can down the road in January...


----------



## willstor

kennas said:


> Any specific reasons why you disagree willstor? Is it the gold price in general or NCM underperformance? You think that the production at Lihir is going to improve? They'll spin off Africa? Be taken over? Sack the CEO for lounging about?




PS it's v unlikely ncm will be taken over...however they can sell off segments they don't want to shore things up, giving them more protection against a large fall in gold prices.


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks kennas,
> 
> Can you expand on CAPEX / OPEX. ??Capital expenditure/ Operational expenditure ?? and it's effects on Gold shares.
> 
> I could google it but prefer to hear it from a fellow ASF member. I have shied away from Gold shares as don't understand their lassitude.
> 
> gg



Cash costs over the past 2 years have more than doubled. In Dec 10 it was about $320 an ounce and it's now over $700.


----------



## willstor

willstor said:


> Based on recent developments the market says NCM is now worth 22.20 from 30.11 previously...
> I disagree and I have bought...if I'm wrong tranche 2 is 19.50




Can anyone give an opinion on the following:

Plan was to get out at 24.50 with the bounce off 22.20 however now I am wondering if 25 will be smooth sailing from here?

Or is the debt ceiling going to knock it back to 22 in the next month?

Thoughts?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

willstor said:


> Can anyone give an opinion on the following:
> 
> Plan was to get out at 24.50 with the bounce off 22.20 however now I am wondering if 25 will be smooth sailing from here?
> 
> Or is the debt ceiling going to knock it back to 22 in the next month?
> 
> Thoughts?




Not today at least? Average down?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

willstor said:


> Can anyone give an opinion on the following:
> 
> Plan was to get out at 24.50 with the bounce off 22.20 however now I am wondering if 25 will be smooth sailing from here?
> 
> Or is the debt ceiling going to knock it back to 22 in the next month?
> 
> Thoughts?






Uncle Festivus said:


> Not today at least? Average down?
> 
> View attachment 50235




I'd agree with Uncle re price.

.06% now shortsold.

Gappy little recovery since Christmas on low volume. Looks as if it is being set up for profit on the short side. I would not average down.






Anything can happen though, but I'd sit back atm. and would be out rather than in.

gg


----------



## willstor

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd agree with Uncle re price.
> 
> .06% now shortsold.
> 
> Gappy little recovery since Christmas on low volume. Looks as if it is being set up for profit on the short side. I would not average down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Anything can happen though, but I'd sit back atm. and would be out rather than in.
> 
> gg





cheers guys...could be a bumpy ride for this one...22.20 - 23.70 previously and currently 23.12 today!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It's finding some support at about $22.90 at 1pm today Sydney time, but it will be interesting to see if it holds. If not, it's going down.

I'd guess it's being shorted.

gg


----------



## willstor

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It's finding some support at about $22.90 at 1pm today Sydney time, but it will be interesting to see if it holds. If not, it's going down.
> 
> I'd guess it's being shorted.
> 
> gg




22.82.... 19.50 here we come!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

willstor said:


> 22.82.... 19.50 here we come!




It finished at 22.84.

The chart looks sickly for the longs.

The shorts have retreated to 0.03%






It has finished on the low, gap has been covered.

I'd look at an entry closer to $16.13 meself.( look at long term chart )

Then I've often been wrong.

gg


----------



## willstor

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It finished at 22.84.
> 
> The chart looks sickly for the longs.
> 
> The shorts have retreated to 0.03%
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It has finished on the low, gap has been covered.
> 
> I'd look at an entry closer to $16.13 meself.( look at long term chart )
> 
> Then I've often been wrong.
> 
> gg




If it gets to 16.30 I'll make that tranche 3, however are we talking within 3 months? That would have seen it lose nearly 50% of its value!


----------



## RottenValue

At the risk of being pedantic, it would be more correct to say it would have lost 50% of its price rather than value.

This stock has low ROE, low EPS growth and therefore little reason to justify even its current PE of 17  - a value of $12 would be more appropriate.  The price fall over the past 5 years reflects PE contraction as the EPS has stagnated.

I would back the shorters on this one!


----------



## RandR

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It's finding some support at about $22.90 at 1pm today Sydney time, but it will be interesting to see if it holds. If not, it's going down.
> 
> I'd guess it's being shorted.
> 
> gg




The balance sheet for NCM in the lastest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... ncm has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cashflow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earnt in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...

I dont understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing alot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.


----------



## willstor

Could be an interesting ride this one...Agree that price would have been a better choice of words than value too!
Hasn't been riding the wave upwards with the ASX which could potentially mean if there is a downturn my 19.50 entry will be triggered.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

willstor said:


> If it gets to 16.30 I'll make that tranche 3, however are we talking within 3 months? That would have seen it lose nearly 50% of its value!






RottenValue said:


> At the risk of being pedantic, it would be more correct to say it would have lost 50% of its price rather than value.
> 
> This stock has low ROE, low EPS growth and therefore little reason to justify even its current PE of 17  - a value of $12 would be more appropriate.  The price fall over the past 5 years reflects PE contraction as the EPS has stagnated.
> 
> I would back the shorters on this one!






RandR said:


> The balance sheet for NCM in the lastest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... ncm has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cashflow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earnt in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...
> 
> I dont understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing alot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.






willstor said:


> Could be an interesting ride this one...Agree that price would have been a better choice of words than value too!
> Hasn't been riding the wave upwards with the ASX which could potentially mean if there is a downturn my 19.50 entry will be triggered.




willstor, unless you have some connections to Hogwarts evening classes on the future, I fail to see how $19.50 can be an entry point at this stage. 

What happens if you buy at $19.50 and it then continues to drop.

I'd wait for signs of a recovery before buying... $26.50 would make more sense as an entry point than $19.50

gg


----------



## willstor

Garpal Gumnut said:


> willstor, unless you have some connections to Hogwarts evening classes on the future, I fail to see how $19.50 can be an entry point at this stage.
> 
> What happens if you buy at $19.50 and it then continues to drop.
> 
> I'd wait for signs of a recovery before buying... $26.50 would make more sense as an entry point than $19.50
> 
> gg




I hear what you are saying but I have found it an effective strategy so far with equity trading. For example I bought FXJ at .45 then .38 then got out with a divident at .51 with a profit and dividend (from tranche 1), ILU at 905, then 805 then out at 980 with dividend and TSE at 1.85, 1.73 and 1.53 closing out at 1.88 RMS at .45 and .39 out at .47. I find it easier to buy companies I see as 'undervalued' and then sell when the value 'catches up'. I was hoping Santos would get a battering too but it's done OK of late so I didn't pull the trigger on that one. 

Ideally I look for:
1. Making a profit (ok FXJ not quite fitting that one but they clearly have valuable assets now being stripped out hence the catching up in the sp)
2. Being sold off and touching lows for certain periods.
3. A stock that pays a half decent dividend which in turn can assist with reinvestment when one of the dogs in the portfolio starts barking!

So in this case I think the market has it wrong at 22 bucks (it might have it right long term, 2 years from now this thread may show NCM at 11 bucks) and with gold getting cheaper but failing so far to capitulate, will experience a sufficient rebound to bring a profit and get me out. I'm insane aren't I?!


----------



## notting

Given it's performance over the medium term, it's showing uncharacteristic strength off it's recent lows in stark contrast to most other Goldies.
Nibbling on it, whilst being mindful that it reports on Friday(I think) and has a history of dissapointing! However the last two reports were positive having already taken on the bad stuff prior IMO.


----------



## willstor

Results today...


----------



## willstor

Even by their standards those results are awful...going to drag the whole ASX down today!


----------



## skc

willstor said:


> Even by their standards those results are awful...going to drag the whole ASX down today!




The result while well down on last year was pretty close to expectation, and DPS of 12c is a slight beat.

Yes it's bad and a tiny profit for a bloated share price and $17B company.. but not sure it will be down too much today.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

willstor said:


> Even by their standards those results are awful...going to drag the whole ASX down today!




The only thing to their credit is that the information didn't get used before the asx announcement.

No obvious inside selling.







Where will it end up today?

gg


----------



## willstor

Rightly or wrongly I'm out at 24.13. How those results caused a 3.3% jump I don't know.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

willstor said:


> Rightly or wrongly I'm out at 24.13. How those results caused a 3.3% jump I don't know.




The answer is in the chart, as I said above.

gg


----------



## willstor

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The answer is in the chart, as I said above.
> 
> gg



Fair enough
Where do you see it headed from here?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

willstor said:


> Fair enough
> Where do you see it headed from here?




Who knows.

If it stays above $24 today it will find some support there from previous price action.

Usually if a stock is going to fall on a bad announcement someone's Granny or Irish relations finds out a week or two before and starts leaking large volumes on the sell side.

It could still crash down if an insto is buying up to sell in to buyers enticed in by the rise.

There may be other news we are not privy to.

gg


----------



## notting

Yeah chart looks good.
Dissapointing results but wait the future looks geat!!
Have we heard that before?


----------



## Boggo

willstor said:


> Even by their standards those results are awful...going to drag the whole ASX down today!






willstor said:


> Rightly or wrongly I'm out at 24.13. How those results caused a 3.3% jump I don't know.






Garpal Gumnut said:


> *The answer is in the chart, as I said above.*
> 
> gg




When the news is released to the unwashed masses it is old news, today's 'old' news is already factored into the charts long before those with the news dependency get their fix.

Garpal's Irish rellies were all over this ages ago 

(click to expand)


----------



## willstor

Fair enough. I'm happy to be out with some profit. The sell down from 27 to 22 was obviously down to what was coming today.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Boggo said:


> When the news is released to the unwashed masses it is old news, today's 'old' news is already factored into the charts long before those with the news dependency get their fix.
> 
> *Garpal's Irish rellies* were all over this ages ago
> 
> (click to expand)




They are actually Sydney based.

The Eddie O'B's.

It all makes sense now.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Boggo said:


> When the news is released to the unwashed masses it is old news, today's 'old' news is already factored into the charts long before those with the news dependency get their fix.
> 
> Garpal's Irish rellies were all over this ages ago
> 
> (click to expand)



Some nice retrospective calls in there Boggo. Love your work.


----------



## chops_a_must

This has been my worst buy.

Next rally and I'm out.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Next rally starts right now.  Target 23.70.


----------



## Joe Blow

Gringotts Bank said:


> Next rally starts right now.  Target 23.70.




Can you explain the reasoning behind your target price please?

All target prices for stocks must be accompanied by some kind of explanatory analysis.


----------



## pixel

Gringotts Bank said:


> Next rally starts right now.  Target 23.70.




I would doubt both assertions very much.
Earlier this morning, one might have "seen" the development of a double bottom, even though last Thursday's Low undercut its January partner by 30c; some pundits do accept a deviation by as much as 3%.
It might also have seemed to have broken out of the falling channel and successfully retested the break. That is IMHO also still under review:





The way I see it, NCM is still very much in a falling trend and would have to close above today's High (so far) for me to consider covering the Short that was indicated by the red arrow on the 13th at $23.50. Unless that is reversed, I won't speculate about any potential upside target.


----------



## tinhat

Gringotts Bank said:


> Next rally starts right now.  Target 23.70.




That's 9.3% higher than where it closed on Friday. I don't know if that qualifies as a rally. NCM is not the pick of the aussie gold producers in my books. I rate NST and SLR as better value.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Gringotts Bank said:


> Next rally starts right now.  Target 23.70.




A decent gap to fill.  I was going to wait till 20.90 but there was an [edit] reversal pattern today, where it dips below support (21.53) then quickly pushes back above it.  We're also near 2 double bottoms.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Similar buy signals on PRU, OGC, NST and SBM today.

(Breaking to upside from swing lows).


----------



## pixel

Covered the Short early this morning; reversal confirmed (intraday) at $22.15.




If the blue arrow stays on at today's Close, I'll stay Long overnight. We may get lucky and see the gap filled.


----------



## notting

pixel said:


> Covered the Short early this morning; reversal confirmed (intraday) at $22.15.
> 
> If the blue arrow stays on at today's Close, I'll stay Long overnight. We may get lucky and see the gap filled.




Hope you didn't short the bounce and buy down the trend!
They all look like their reversing now.


----------



## pixel

notting said:


> Hope you didn't short the bounce and buy down the trend!
> They all look like their reversing now.




Fear not, Notting 

On my charts, the arrows tell me what to do. 
Buy: 
	

		
			
		

		
	

View attachment Long.bmp

Sell: 
	

		
			
		

		
	

View attachment Short.bmp


And there is no specific rule that prevents me from covering a Short or selling a position "when in doubt..."


----------



## notting

pixel said:


> Fear not, Notting
> 
> On my charts, the arrows tell me what to do.
> 
> And there is no specific rule that prevents me from covering a Short or selling a position "when in doubt..."




Good to trust the arrows.
The finish is looking OK!


----------



## pixel

notting said:


> Good to trust the arrows.
> The finish is looking OK!




In spite of the reasonable volume, the Close fell a couple of cents short - so I'm not holding overnight.
Intraday swings were a different matter...


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Strong bounce in gold overnight.  Back over 1600.


----------



## madjohn

Gringotts Bank said:


> Strong bounce in gold overnight.  Back over 1600.




shorters are burned today??


----------



## notting

Shorters will be looking to get back in!!


Everyone I know was aware that there would be weakness whilst the Chinese/Asia New year was on and that there would probably be a bounce once they came back.  
So far so true.  
Next move is expected to be down whilst Gold remains firmly below it's 200 day moving average after more than a decades bull run ala Apple.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

madjohn said:


> shorters are burned today??




It's actually looking pretty weak today, despite the gap up.  I was expecting more from it.  Unless something happens this arvo, the downside gap doesn't even look like it's going to fill... unfortunately.


----------



## chops_a_must

I'm out today.

Out of all my post gfc buys, this is the only stock not to provide a positive return in about 4 or so years.

And I'd expect it to underperform.

My money is better elsewhere.


----------



## pixel

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's actually looking pretty weak today, despite the gap up.  I was expecting more from it.  Unless something happens this arvo, the downside gap doesn't even look like it's going to fill... unfortunately.




yesterday's island Doji signaled the risk of turning into an Evening Star:
read http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/c..._patterns/bear/




When today opened below yesterday's range, it confirmed the pattern, immediately suggesting a $22.40 Short. So far, it's only valid as an Intraday play with tight stop, but may be extended if the trend is maintained.


----------



## inyaface

This ride is quite exciting, went short about 3 times last month.


----------



## JTLP

So is anybody holding? Copped a double beating recently with gold being down and a gold forecast reduction!

Morningstar has it as 'accumulate' saying it's been sold down on fear and fair value is $31-$32 a piece 

Will wait for gold to turn but these guys seem like serial underperformers...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

JTLP said:


> So is anybody holding? Copped a double beating recently with gold being down and a gold forecast reduction!
> 
> Morningstar has it as 'accumulate' saying it's been sold down on fear and fair value is $31-$32 a piece
> 
> Will wait for gold to turn but these guys seem like serial underperformers...




Morningstar are one of those very, very useful outfits.

If they say sell, there are usually big buyers out there, buying on weakness.

Equally if they say buy, there are often big sellers to oblige.

Not that they are doing anything wrong.

Just that they are useful muppets.

gg


----------



## sreeve

Newcrest chart update (monthly candle chart). $16 is a critical support level which is holding for the moment....


----------



## jimbowan

sreeve said:


> Newcrest chart update (monthly candle chart). $16 is a critical support level which is holding for the moment....




I reckon we will see it push over $17 today, but with the 2013 QR due tomorrow if results are poor (and simply looking at that graph I would assume they wont be exceptional) we might be due a retracement back to $16 on wed/thu?

Well thats what I am hoping for anyway. 

Also it hinges a little on the POG too which is holding steady over 1400 usd currently. Any weakness in conjunction with a poor QR might see a sizeable drop later in the week.

Thoughts?


----------



## rbgmauq

In general, NCM has been showing support around 15.89 and resistance in the 21.30 price range. The technical indicator shows a buy with the 24.87 target price in six months.


----------



## Bintang

Big increase in NCM today - up 6.6%. Does any one have any thoughts as to why? I can't find any related news of interest. The gold price is still stuck around $1460 . Just doesn't seem to be a reason for it.


----------



## jancha

Can someone please explain. 
During 2008/2009 the POG on average was around $1000oz and Newcrest sp on average was around $30.
 2008/2009   NCM= $30 GOLD= $1000 (on average)
          2013   NCM= $15 GOLD= $1390
Has the cost of production risen that much??? What other factors are there for this?


----------



## Bintang

jancha said:


> Can someone please explain.
> During 2008/2009 the POG on average was around $1000oz and Newcrest sp on average was around $30.
> 2008/2009   NCM= $30 GOLD= $1000 (on average)
> 2013   NCM= $15 GOLD= $1390
> Has the cost of production risen that much??? What other factors are there for this?




Gold mining shares are on the nose generally and every man and his dog is piling their money into dividend stocks like the banks and telstra. So if you are a bit of a contrarian like me buy some NCM while the rest of the crowd isn't. I've been doing that recently. NCM could still go a bit lower before it recovers but I will just keep buying. I love buying when the mainstream is ignoring compelling value and I am willing to wait for the value to be resurrected.


----------



## pixel

jancha said:


> Can someone please explain.
> During 2008/2009 the POG on average was around $1000oz and Newcrest sp on average was around $30.
> 2008/2009   NCM= $30 GOLD= $1000 (on average)
> 2013   NCM= $15 GOLD= $1390
> Has the cost of production risen that much??? What other factors are there for this?




Check the AUD. At 70cUS, a pog of $1000US/oz is still more in AUD than $1400US/oz at parity.
Add the increased red tape, environmental laws, and increased labour cost (in AUD!), and the price drop is becoming much less of a surprise.


----------



## jancha

pixel said:


> Check the AUD. At 70cUS, a pog of $1000US/oz is still more in AUD than $1400US/oz at parity.
> Add the increased red tape, environmental laws, and increased labour cost (in AUD!), and the price drop is becoming much less of a surprise.
> 
> View attachment 52234




Thanks pixel.. Forgot about the AUD @ 70c back then. Still it looks fairly attractive at the current price considering NCM 40 year mine life. 
I guess it comes down to where gold is heading atm and while the US markets are looking stronger along with the greenback I say there'd be more cheaper sp to come with the likes of NCM.


----------



## Bintang

Exchange rate is still only part of the story. There was also share dilution from ~480 mln in 2009 to ~760 mln now but that was connected with the acquisition of Lihir, for which they paid too much at the time and the then shareholders took the hit. But consider some more statistics:
Net assets ($billion): 2009/  4.3 ,  2013/  15
Gold production(million oz): 2009/ 1.63,  2013/ 2.0
Revenue (A$/per oz gold): 2009/ 1552, 2013/ 1900
Levered free cash flow ($million): 2009/ -390,  2013/ -440
Levered free cashflow excluding expansion capex ($million) 2009/ 265  2013/  910
Price over book value:  2009/ 3.36,  2013/ 0.8

(Note: above numbers for 2013 are my own projections for the 2012/13 financial year based on reported Dec-13 first half results and of course opinions can differ)

What I see is a company which in past years has eroded share holder value and chased expansion at the expense of returning cash to shareholders. But they are now reaching the end of a major expansion phase after which production will ramp up. They have excellent long term mine life and cash generating potential provided they bring costs under control and they are under enormous pressure to do so. My conclusion is that with the drop in gold price and negative sentiment the share price is now grossly undervalued and is a screaming buy. But current buyer's will need to have patience and of course no-one can pick the exact bottom.


----------



## polpak

Three relevant numbers: 

            Cost Per Oz            
            Price Per Oz             
and
            (Price Per Oz) - (Cost Per Oz)


----------



## Bintang

polpak said:


> Three relevant numbers:
> 
> Cost Per Oz
> Price Per Oz
> and
> (Price Per Oz) - (Cost Per Oz)




Something else is relevant - 'of Gold', i.e Per Oz of Gold.
NCM also produces copper and silver and therefore has other revenue.
So to get the full picture you have to examine all sources of revenue and of course all costs.


----------



## jjbinks

I'm slowly learning the ropes to value investing. NCM does seem like good value. With strong assets. 

 However, it does seem a bit speculative aswell as its earnings are closely tied to gold value.


----------



## Sean K

jjbinks said:


> I'm slowly learning the ropes to value investing. NCM does seem like good value. With strong assets.
> 
> However, it does seem a bit speculative aswell as its earnings are closely tied to gold value.



A key factor is the cost of production and the price of gold. At the moment they are heading in opposing directions. It's speculative in the sense that there's no guarantee of that factor reversing. Gold bugs v Gold sceptics. Choose your corner.


----------



## Bintang

I last topped up my NCM holdings at $15.03 a few days after two NCM directors added to their own holdings when the price was $17.50. Insiders usually have a keen idea what their company is really worth so presumably they thought $17.50 was a good buy. I thought $15.03 was an even better buy but here we are today and the price has closed at $14.56 after reaching a low of $14.28. 
Where is this going to end up?
Is there a chartist out there?


----------



## chops_a_must

I wouldn't be short.

But it is still lacking some stopping volume.


----------



## Bintang

So far today back up 0.84 already. Is this now the bottom?  Where are the chartists when you need them most?  Jimbowan, what’s your take on NCM at the moment?


----------



## jjbinks

well if gold price drops again wouldn't ncm drop again.

i guess it would be more important to get an idea of if gold price has plateaued from a technical point of view.


----------



## Okiishi

Bintang said:


> Where are the chartists when you need them most?  Jimbowan, what’s your take on NCM at the moment?




Must be out shopping for saucepans or female undergarments.


----------



## Bintang

Okiishi said:


> Must be out shopping for saucepans or female undergarments.




Okiishi, I gather you have been lurking in the TLS thread. I'm still hopeful tha when they have finished their shopping they can find time to conjure up a chart or two for NCM.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Starting to look interesting now, although the sellers are still in charge? 

Down 65% in 8 months = good enough for me - got some buy orders in.....

Looking for gold equities to indicate gold has bottomed?


----------



## Bintang

Good to see NCM directors buying more of their own shares.

Vince Gauci bought 6000 shares at $14.74
Greg Robinson bought 8000 shares at $14.51


----------



## jancha

Bintang said:


> Good to see NCM directors buying more of their own shares.
> 
> Vince Gauci bought 6000 shares at $14.74
> Greg Robinson bought 8000 shares at $14.51




Yeah I bought  few today as well @ $14.47. I noticed while they fell 2% other goldies were up 5-6%


----------



## ftw129

Calling CanOz & TechA if I may??!!

Fellas, would be very interested to get your TA on NCM.

I don't see it "unreasonable" for this one to head all the way back to the $6-8 region (worst case scenario) in the next few months.

Looking back on the weekly stretching back 25 years it appears as though this was the start of the huge run up.

I pretty much never buy shares but have been watching this like a hawk and should it reach these levels it will be a screaming buy. 

Interested to hear your thoughts, if any?


----------



## tech/a

ftw129 said:


> Calling CanOz & TechA if I may??!!
> 
> Fellas, would be very interested to get your TA on NCM.
> 
> I don't see it "unreasonable" for this one to head all the way back to the $6-8 region (worst case scenario) in the next few months.
> 
> *Looking back on the weekly stretching back 25 years it appears as though this was the start of the huge run up.
> 
> I pretty much never buy shares but have been watching this like a hawk and should it reach these levels it will be a screaming buy. *
> 
> Interested to hear your thoughts, if any?





Gold was a lot less than it is now.
So a return to low levels 25 yrs ago is your buy criteria?
Technically there is nothing of interest long.


----------



## ftw129

tech/a said:


> So a return to low levels 25 yrs ago is your buy criteria?




Well no, a return to the breakout zone (the start of the huge bull) is my buy criteria. Regardless of what the price of gold was back then.

Of course, some time used up at those low levels followed by a higher high and a higher low would be the entry point.

Just finding the technicals on this one pretty tricky but I agree with you there is absolutely nothing of interest going long yet. The knife is still razor sharp even after chopping off a lot of people's fingers!


----------



## Bintang

ftw129 said:


> Calling CanOz & TechA if I may??!!
> 
> Fellas, would be very interested to get your TA on NCM.
> 
> I don't see it "unreasonable" for this one to head all the way back to the $6-8 region (worst case scenario) in the next few months.
> 
> Looking back on the weekly stretching back 25 years it appears as though this was the start of the huge run up.
> 
> I pretty much never buy shares but have been watching this like a hawk and should it reach these levels it will be a screaming buy.
> 
> Interested to hear your thoughts, if any?




If NCM dropped to $6-8 region it would be a double screaming buy and I think you would have to be lighting quick to buy shares at that price before it bounced up like a super ball.
25 years ago Newcrest was primarily an explorer but with a little bit of production (and it was called Newmont Australia. Only became Newcrest in 1990 after merging with BHP Gold) .Today it is a major gold producing company.
The most recent occassion when the share price was ~$6 was in 2003. At that time Newcrest was producing around 700,000 oz gold and 60,000 tonnes copper per year . Today it produces around 2 million oz gold and 76,000 tonnes copper year. Its gold resources and reserves have each approximatley tripled since 2003 and its copper resources and reserves have increased five-fold.
Newcrest has recently been in an expansion phase which is coming to an end after which production will gradually ramp up to over 3 million oz gold per year.
Profit in 2003 was $168/oz gold produced. In 2012 profit was $493/oz gold produced.
I will not bother going into other financials except that at the current share price NCM is already below book value.
Newcrest is already a screaming buy at around $14.50. Market sentiment and languishing gold price might still send it down a bit more but the downside risk is far smaller IMO than the upside potential. 
Disclosure: I am  accumulating NCM aggressively at current prices.


----------



## ftw129

Bintang said:


> If NCM dropped to $6-8 region it would be a double screaming buy and I think you would have to be lighting quick to buy shares at that price before it bounced up like a super ball.
> 25 years ago Newcrest was primarily an explorer but with a little bit of production (and it was called Newmont Australia. Only became Newcrest in 1990 after merging with BHP Gold) .Today it is a major gold producing company.
> The most recent occassion when the share price was ~$6 was in 2003. At that time Newcrest was producing around 700,000 oz gold and 60,000 tonnes copper per year . Today it produces around 2 million oz gold and 76,000 tonnes copper year. Its gold resources and reserves have each approximatley tripled since 2003 and its copper resources and reserves have increased five-fold.
> Newcrest has recently been in an expansion phase which is coming to an end after which production will gradually ramp up to over 3 million oz gold per year.
> Profit in 2003 was $168/oz gold produced. In 2012 profit was $493/oz gold produced.
> I will not bother going into other financials except that at the current share price NCM is already below book value.
> Newcrest is already a screaming buy at around $14.50. Market sentiment and languishing gold price might still send it down a bit more but the downside risk is far smaller IMO than the upside potential.
> Disclosure: I am  accumulating NCM aggressively at current prices.




I see. 

What would the price of gold have to get to for profit to revert back to or below the $168/oz mark as was the case in 2003?

Have production costs increased or decreased since then?


----------



## Bintang

ftw129 said:


> I see.
> 
> What would the price of gold have to get to for profit to revert back to or below the $168/oz mark as was the case in 2003?
> 
> Have production costs increased or decreased since then?




I can give you an opinion on your POG threshold question  but not immediately as I don't have access to my cashflow models at the moment.

Production costs have increased and sustaining capex has increased but so has profitability. The question to ask is, given current and projected profitability what is a fair value for the share price? I have my personal opinion on this which is the basis of my investment decision in NCM and I invest for the long term. I am not a 'trader'.

If you are interested I will PM you later this evening. But I cannot give you advice. I can only state my opinions.


----------



## ftw129

Bintang said:


> I can give you an opinion on your POG threshold question  but not immediately as I don't have access to my cashflow models at the moment.
> 
> Production costs have increased and sustaining capex has increased but so has profitability. The question to ask is, given current and projected profitability what is a fair value for the share price? I have my personal opinion on this which is the basis of my investment decision in NCM and I invest for the long term. I am not a 'trader'.
> 
> If you are interested I will PM you later this evening. But I cannot give you advice. I can only state my opinions.




Thank you kindly for the offer. I'd appreciate that very much.

Thanks for your time.


----------



## CanOz

7.41 is the monthly measured move from the highs. Whether or not it gets there is another story, but thats how o see it....

FWIW the auction is still one timing lower with no access low on the monthly's or the weekly's yet, but there is some bracketing on the current daily lows but yet no access low. I'd consider this another shorting opportunity if it were to break the lows again. I wouldn't expect such an easy ride down this time as shorts will be covering.

BTW - access lows are capitulation lows, when all the remaining weak hands exit.

CanOz


----------



## ftw129

CanOz said:


> FWIW the auction is still one timing lower with no access low on the monthly's or the weekly's yet, but there is some bracketing on the current daily lows but yet no access low.
> 
> CanOz




Thanks CanOZ!

So what indicator will help you determine the access low?

Is a huge volume spike plus long tail sufficient?

Thanks.


----------



## CanOz

ftw129 said:


> Thanks CanOZ!
> 
> So what indicator will help you determine the access low?
> 
> Is a huge volume spike plus long tail sufficient?
> 
> Thanks.




Pretty much yeah...


----------



## tech/a

> Only became Newcrest in 1990 after merging with BHP Gold) .Today it is a major gold producing company.




That being the case it has traded as low as $1.30 whilst a producer in 1997
Personally pretty well all bubbles---gold being a bubble retrace to their origin.
Half its current price isn't an impossibility.
I still cant see the sense in accumulating as a stock is falling.
Why don't people accumulate while its rising??

Always served me well?


----------



## skyQuake

I'm calling a crack of support and blood on the streets. Gold is down 0.5% from Aus close, if the US fails to inspire we can see lots of stop loss selling tomorrow.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> I'm calling a crack of support and blood on the streets. Gold is down 0.5% from Aus close, if the US fails to inspire we can see lots of stop loss selling tomorrow.
> 
> View attachment 52642




Does this have an ADR somewhere? I seem to recall it does....


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Does this have an ADR somewhere? I seem to recall it does....




US: NCMGY

Volume is mediocre

Also trades as NM in Canada but volume there is virtually nonexistant


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> US: NCMGY
> 
> Volume is mediocre
> 
> Also trades as NM in Canada but volume there is virtually nonexistant




the daily...


----------



## Ves

Bintang said:


> The most recent occassion when the share price was ~$6 was in 2003.



I'm sure you realise - but today there are 766m shares on issue.   In the middle of 2003 there were about 326m.   A share price of $6 in today's terms would have a much higher EV than in 2003.   I always tread with caution when dealing in historical share prices, because they are often not as equivalent as they seem.

Probably irrelevant to your discussion perhaps.... but I thought someone might find it useful.


----------



## Okiishi

Ves said:


> I'm sure you realise - but today there are 766m shares on issue.   In the middle of 2003 there were about 326m.   A share price of $6 in today's terms would have a much higher EV than in 2003.   I always tread with caution when dealing in historical share prices, because they are often not as equivalent as they seem.
> 
> Probably irrelevant to your discussion perhaps.... but I thought someone might find it useful.




Based on the information Bintang provided any stock dilution effects appear to be more than offset by substantial production and reserves increases.


----------



## Bintang

Ves said:


> I'm sure you realise - but today there are 766m shares on issue.   In the middle of 2003 there were about 326m.   A share price of $6 in today's terms would have a much higher EV than in 2003.   I always tread with caution when dealing in historical share prices, because they are often not as equivalent as they seem.
> 
> Probably irrelevant to your discussion perhaps.... but I thought someone might find it useful.




Ves, my intention was not to use the historical share price for anything other than a reference point in time and to highlight that NCM is now a very different company to what it was when the share price was at that level. Yes 766m shares on issue versus 326m back then is another big difference. And also in 2003 its net assets were $2.70/share whereas now it is $19.70/share.
So which is the better value $6/share back in 2003 or $14.35/share currently?


----------



## Bintang

tech/a said:


> That being the case it has traded as low as $1.30 whilst a producer in 1997
> Personally pretty well all bubbles---gold being a bubble retrace to their origin.
> Half its current price isn't an impossibility.
> I still cant see the sense in accumulating as a stock is falling.
> Why don't people accumulate while its rising??
> 
> Always served me well?




My own personal valuation of NCM is that at POG US$1400/oz its share price ought to be $28. If the POG falls to US$1000/oz I still think the shares are worth $20. So on that basis (if my valuation methodology is sound) my opinion is that NCM is currently way oversold and I am happy to accumulate at prices below $20.
But who can pick the exact bottom of anything?
Of course I could be very wrong about all of this in which case you will be entitled to tell me so but it will not bother me because I am not scared of being wrong.


----------



## tech/a

Bintang said:


> My own personal valuation of NCM is that at POG US$1400/oz its share price ought to be $28. If the POG falls to US$1000/oz I still think the shares are worth $20. So on that basis (if my valuation methodology is sound) my opinion is that NCM is currently way oversold and I am happy to accumulate at prices below $20.
> But who can pick the exact bottom of anything?
> Of course I could be very wrong about all of this in which case you will be entitled to tell me so but it will not bother me because I am not scared of being wrong.




Nothing wrong with being wrong
I'm wrong often.
It's about what you do when you are wrong
And how long you stay wrong.

It's easy to pick a bottom
When you can see it!

If your a serious investor using serious money say 500k
Seeing your investment constantly decrease in price as you
Buy 100k parcels as it falls ---- isn't good for your account.

Then again a serious investor would never put his capital base at such risk.
He'd average up NOT down.

It's about being profitable not clever--or right!


----------



## qldfrog

Tech/a you are my guru!!
If anyone see NCM as a screaming buy and want to go long, why not get a put option against your new purchases?
if it is so oversold, the option fee should easily be coverred by the raise in let's say a year, and if you are wrong, loss will be minimal:
Not an advise obviously buit I just did bought some under that scenario:
I believe in NCM case. shares will be either below 10 or above 20 in a year: no middle ground so i went put protection.
I would also add that when you mine a volcano, buying some insurance might make sense 
DOYR


----------



## tech/a

Off 6% in a day!

Gotta be some buy opportunity there fella's??


----------



## CanOz

Jumped the creek.....

Bloody h*** thats 2 nice ASX shorts I've missed out on!

CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Jumped the creek.....
> 
> Bloody h*** thats 2 nice ASX shorts I've missed out on!
> 
> CanOz




Can you believe it closed 14.60 in the US?

Interesting to see a few other goldies up today though


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Can you believe it closed 14.60 in the US?
> 
> Interesting to see a few other goldies up today though




They got ganged up by the analysts at a pretty major support level.

UBS yesterday and Citi and Credit Swiss put the boot in today, all downgrading NCM to sell.

NCM used to be the more stable of the gold stocks because of its long mine life... now it's just as volatile as a $20 junior.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Can you believe it closed 14.60 in the US?
> 
> Interesting to see a few other goldies up today though




explains the creek jump on the ASX then...


----------



## tech/a

> UBS yesterday and Citi and Credit Swiss put the boot in today, all downgrading NCM to sell.




So *Bintang* seems a pretty knowledgeable guy.

Have all the Fund analysts got it wrong.
If its such good value as a few
here have "proven" with sound argument.

Why don't the classify it as a "Screaming buy"?

Why don't you see experts advising that you average down?


----------



## prawn_86

tech/a said:


> Why don't you see experts advising that you average down?




Because the 'experts' simply follow the herd. How many banks have recently downgraded their previous above parity forecasts on the AUD to below parity since this latest move? If it rallies back up above parity, they will probably switch their forecasts around again.

I don't follow this stock, but a lot of successful fundamental traders have done very well buying below what they calculate to be intrinsic value. It's just a matter of getting this calculation right, and keeping it fluid. And also depends on the investment timeframe.

*All generally speaking and not related to NCM


----------



## tech/a

prawn_86 said:


> Because the 'experts' simply follow the herd. How many banks have recently downgraded their previous above parity forecasts on the AUD to below parity since this latest move? If it rallies back up above parity, they will probably switch their forecasts around again.
> 
> I don't follow this stock, but a lot of successful fundamental traders have done very well buying below what they calculate to be intrinsic value. It's just a matter of getting this calculation right, and keeping it fluid. And also depends on the investment timeframe.
> 
> *All generally speaking and not related to NCM




You know I've never seen buying below intrinsic value demonstrated to return a consistent profit.
Sure you hear how someone as had a trade or two pay off but you don't hear about those who are trapped in long term bottom draw trades where they are chasing a Breakeven


----------



## prawn_86

tech/a said:


> You know I've never seen buying below intrinsic value demonstrated to return a consistent profit.
> Sure you hear how someone as had a trade or two pay off but you don't hear about those who are trapped in long term bottom draw trades where they are chasing a Breakeven




While i don't disagree that there is probably a lot of 'fundies' who don't make good returns, there are plenty of other styles the same. Most average punters in the market don't make money, no matter what their style.

If you are truly interested in fundamentals, and not just trying to spruik your way as best, PM McLovin or ROE and ask about their returns and buying below fair value etc. Topic for a different thread however (one which has been done to death)


----------



## TheUnknown

Nick Radge is making money


----------



## tech/a

TheUnknown said:


> Nick Radge is making money




You think his trading methods use dollar cost averaging?


----------



## TheUnknown

tech/a said:


> You think his trading methods use dollar cost averaging?






He seems to be doing alright....


----------



## dengo

Bintang said:


> I last topped up my NCM holdings at $15.03 a few days after two NCM directors added to their own holdings when the price was $17.50. Insiders usually have a keen idea what their company is really worth so presumably they thought $17.50 was a good buy. I thought $15.03 was an even better buy but here we are today and the price has closed at $14.56 after reaching a low of $14.28.
> Where is this going to end up?
> Is there a chartist out there?




$11 descending triangle target


----------



## tech/a

TheUnknown said:


> He seems to be doing alright....




Yeh bit what's that got to do with this thread?


----------



## TheUnknown

tech/a said:


> Yeh bit what's that got to do with this thread?




When someone mentioned most average punters don't make money even with different trade styles, i said Nick does and so do his average followers.


----------



## Bintang

dengo said:


> $11 descending triangle target
> 
> View attachment 52676




Thanks dengo, I am keeping some powder dry in anticipation.
But how exactly do you get $11 from that chart?


----------



## tech/a

Bintang said:


> Thanks dengo, I am keeping some powder dry in anticipation.
> But how exactly do you get $11 from that chart?




This guy has the uncanny ability to turn a pattern out of tea-leaves!


----------



## dengo

Bintang said:


> But how exactly do you get $11 from that chart?




Not saying it won't fall further Bintang but, 

"Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance, (support IMO), breakout."

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_


----------



## Bintang

dengo said:


> Not saying it won't fall further Bintang but,
> 
> "Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance, (support IMO), breakout."
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_




Thanks for the explanation. This charting stuff is a brave new world for me.


----------



## dengo

tech/a said:


> This guy has the uncanny ability to turn a pattern out of tea-leaves!




How do you know I'm a guy?

Gold = $1150 when/if recent support fails


----------



## Country Lad

tech/a said:


> Then again a serious investor would never put his capital base at such risk.
> He'd average up NOT down.
> 
> It's about being profitable not clever--or right!



tech, the knife catching, averaging down brigade don’t believe us.  I have stopped trying to get across the fact that risk management makes buying falling shares which have negative market sentiment in a falling market doesn’t make sense, so I just watch, bemused.

At some time they are right of course, it will probably go up some time but from how much a lower level than when they started buying?

Maybe it is worth looking at some possible support points.  It appears to be sitting on one at the moment.  After that I have them as around the $10.60, $8.20 and $7,40 marks.

Let's see which ones hold/fail.  

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Boggo

skc said:


> They got ganged up by the analysts at a pretty major support level.
> 
> UBS yesterday and Citi and Credit Swiss *put the boot in today, all downgrading NCM to sell*.




So NCM drops an average of $10 per year for the last three years and these guys finally decided that its a sell, amazing !

Scary bit is that they are probably licensed to give financial advice


----------



## galumay

Country Lad said:


> tech, the knife catching, averaging down brigade don’t believe us.  I have stopped trying to get across the fact that risk management makes buying falling shares which have negative market sentiment in a falling market doesn’t make sense, so I just watch, bemused.....




I think that if you ignore fundamentals thats true, but the factor I would add in is the FA around the share, I am only interested in averaging down if the case for buying the share remains strong on that basis -increasing ROE, good management, likely strong earnings and therefore yield. In that case I dont mind if the market mis-values the share, in fact I welcome it. 

In saying that it would have to be a compelling case, otherwise I am happy to retain my original stake, pick up the earnings and wait for growth to return when the price and the value cross paths again.


----------



## Bintang

Boggo said:


> So NCM drops an average of $10 per year for the last three years and these guys finally decided that its a sell, amazing !
> 
> Scary bit is that they are probably licensed to give financial advice




There always has to be somebody on the other side of the trade. Their 'friends' maybe.


----------



## tech/a

galumay said:


> I think that if you ignore fundamentals thats true, but the factor I would add in is the FA around the share, I am only interested in averaging down if the case for buying the share remains strong on that basis -increasing ROE, good management, likely strong earnings and therefore yield. In that case I dont mind if the market mis-values the share, in fact I welcome it.
> 
> In saying that it would have to be a compelling case, otherwise I am happy to retain my original stake, pick up the earnings and wait for growth to return when the price and the value cross paths again.




I hear you.

But if you happily held for dividends say 7% the share has fallen 50% nearly 60% in 12 mths
Say $100K is now worth 40K +7K and to regain your capital you need the stock to return over 100%
Thats one hell of a bullish move in 12 mths or however long it takes.

So at what price Yield???

Arn't you better off sticking these "screaming buys" in a watch list and trading them when
its clear everyone agrees with you? No capital at risk.

Right now the only people agreeing seem to be posting here?
Even the so called "pro's" are deserting the cause.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> I hear you.
> 
> But if you happily held for dividends say 7% the share has fallen 50% nearly 60% in 12 mths
> Say $100K is now worth 40K +7K and to regain your capital you need the stock to return over 100%
> Thats one hell of a bullish move in 12 mths or however long it takes.
> 
> So at what price Yield???
> 
> Arn't you better off sticking these "screaming buys" in a watch list and trading them when
> its clear everyone agrees with you? No capital at risk.
> 
> Right now the only people agreeing seem to be posting here?
> Even the so called "pro's" are deserting the cause.




Sorry. No final dividend. $5-6B write down. No FCF in FY14.

This one is going to bleed badly today (and probably a capitulation low...)


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> Sorry. No final dividend. $5-6B write down. No FCF in FY14.
> 
> This one is going to bleed badly today (and probably a capitulation low...)




These guys have destroyed shareholder value on a grand scale. It was only 3 years ago they paid $10b for Lihir. Now the combined entity has a mc of $10b. And that's before it gets routed today.


----------



## galumay

tech/a said:


> Arn't you better off sticking these "screaming buys" in a watch list and trading them when
> its clear everyone agrees with you? No capital at risk.




I wouldn't, when everyone agrees with me the price will likely have crossed the value and the share will be overvalued. My yield will also be lower at that entry point.

If it meets the criteria to be on my watch list then I am looking for opportunities to buy when its under priced by the market.

I dont care where the price goes if the company continues to provide a high income stream, and the fundamentals remain good. 

Mind you a company like NCM would never had made my watch list anyway so its probably a poor example for me to use to defend my strategy!

Also remember that those of us investing for the long term intend holding our chosen shares for very long time periods, longer than the average length of market cycles.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

There's going to be ramifications from this - insider trading? That is, if ASIC is not asleep at the wheel, again!


----------



## tech/a

galumay said:


> I wouldn't, when everyone agrees with me the price will likely have crossed the value and the share will be overvalued. My yield will also be lower at that entry point.
> 
> If it meets the criteria to be on my watch list then I am looking for opportunities to buy when its under priced by the market.
> 
> I dont care where the price goes if the company continues to provide a high income stream, and the fundamentals remain good.
> 
> Mind you a company like NCM would never had made my watch list anyway so its probably a poor example for me to use to defend my strategy!
> 
> Also remember that those of us investing for the long term intend holding our chosen shares for very long time periods, longer than the average length of market cycles.




A couple of questions.

If NCM isnt one youd have in your watchlist then how is it that Bintang et'al find it a "screaming buy" and you dont?
How can there be such a wide devide in "Valuation"



> Also remember that those of us investing for the long term intend holding our chosen shares for very long time periods, longer than the average length of market cycles




I like this.
So if you hold for 10 yrs and you recieve say 6% a year on investment and price slips 40% your up over all.
You have your income stream without thinking that much.

On the flip side though 
Would it not be preferable to attempt to purchase more shares and hence increase returns
decrease capital erosion with far less risk than buying on the way down hoping that price will return to at least break even.

Dont get me wrong I can see what your doing---or attempting to.


----------



## jancha

tech/a said:


> A couple of questions.
> 
> If NCM isnt one youd have in your watchlist then how is it that Bintang et'al find it a "screaming buy" and you dont?
> How can there be such a wide devide in "Valuation"
> 
> 
> 
> I like this.
> So if you hold for 10 yrs and you recieve say 6% a year on investment and price slips 40% your up over all.
> You have your income stream without thinking that much.
> 
> On the flip side though
> Would it not be preferable to attempt to purchase more shares and hence increase returns
> decrease capital erosion with far less risk than buying on the way down hoping that price will return to at least break even.
> 
> Dont get me wrong I can see what your doing---or attempting to.




Isn't this a thread on Newcrest?


----------



## McLovin

tech/a said:


> A couple of questions.
> 
> If NCM isnt one youd have in your watchlist then how is it that Bintang et'al find it a "screaming buy" and you dont?
> How can there be such a wide devide in "Valuation"




Probably the same reason that one person's tea leaves are another person's pattern.


----------



## Ves

tech/a said:


> I like this.
> *So if you hold for 10 yrs and you recieve say 6% a year on investment and price slips 40% your up over all.
> You have your income stream without thinking that much.*
> 
> On the flip side though
> Would it not be preferable to attempt to purchase more shares and hence increase returns
> decrease capital erosion with far less risk than buying on the way down hoping that price will return to at least break even.



Whilst the bolded part relates to the question of investment philosophy / approach, I believe the actual result as you stated (40% capital depreciation over 10 years) is a most likely result of poor implementation of an investment philosophy.

I actually think if you held something for 10 years and it was still 40% under your buy price then one of two things has probably happened:


You picked the wrong company (ie. the value of each $1 that the company re-invested in its operations is now worth less than a $1)
Your assumptions were wrong in the first place; which means you paid over the odds

It would be very unlikely, but not impossible, for the market to be still divergent from current intrinsic value a decade later.

Ten years is a long time - the idea of investing should always be based around making sure the $1 you invest today is worth a lot more in the future.


----------



## Bushman

A tale of woe ... the comments about 'maintaining its credit rating' and 'cashflow neutral in 2014' means the business is trading on a knife edge and might even be trading cum-cap raising. They did spend their recent largesse on internal growth options which might stave this off. Falling AUD is helping. 

Cutting the capex by $500m @ the sweep of the pen explains how tenuous all those WIP numbers for the mining service contractors is. 

Too early for me on NCM. Bad news comes in threes is my rule of thumb.  

In today’s business update, the following was announced – 
•	High AUD and falling US POG means NCM will be ‘cash flow neutral’ in 2014! This from a company that announced a $1bn cash bonanza in 2012. 
•	Asset write-downs of $5-6bn, inc the $3.6b of goodwill (otherwise known as hubris) booked for the Lihir acquisition. 
•	Not surprisingly, capex/opex/exploration are being slashed. Opex will be cut by 20%, including the closure of the Brisbane office. Capex will be cut by $500m. Exploration will also be cut significantly. 
•	2H13 final div has been cut. 
•	Post the asset write-down, gearing will be 28-30% vs a mgt ‘target’ of 15%. While there are no covenant tests, a further deterioration in the POG or a rise in the AUD could well see a cap raise to save the credit rating. H/e, for the moment it is batten down the hatches and ride out 2014. Exp Cadia expansion cashflows to kick in for 2015. 

Lihir really was the height of hubris. Special divs please ...


----------



## skc

McLovin said:


> These guys have destroyed shareholder value on a grand scale. It was only 3 years ago they paid $10b for Lihir. Now the combined entity has a mc of $10b. And that's before it gets routed today.




Most business textbooks will tell you how major M&A have a much higher chance of value destruction than value creation. And to me the problem is simply inherent in human nature - you need a lot of positive thinking to put on a big deal, and you need a lot of persuation to get it across the line. And that's the danger time when everybody simply think upside and not downside.

And what's the fun of NOT doing a deal? There's no bonus for passing up an acquisition, is there?

With depressed gold equity prices the time to do a deal is actually NOW. But how many deals have we seen in this space? A pitterly TRY taking on AZH. That's it.



Uncle Festivus said:


> There's going to be ramifications from this - insider trading? That is, if ASIC is not asleep at the wheel, again!




For once I agree... 3 analyst downgrades and 2 days later a massive writedown. Did NCM management read the analyst reports and realise they need to announce something? Or did the analyst get tipped off?

Anyhow, Macquarie actually reaffirmed their outperform buy today so that a case of bad timing for sure (and no insiders there!).

Speaking of NCM price - I think today's low of $11.4 will hold for some time. The gold price chart isn't actually looking as bad as it did several weeks ago. May be we have seen a capitulation low.


----------



## Ves

skc said:


> Most business textbooks will tell you how major M&A have a much higher chance of value destruction than value creation.



There's a guy over at Hotcopper called Camden, a very experienced Fundamental Analyst, who has what he calls the "5-4-1 rule" for acquistions.   He believes that roughly 5 acquisitions destroy value,  4 are roughly value neutral in the long term (ie. they don't really add anything) and 1 actually adds value.

That's a 1 in 10 chance.  Sounds about right, doesn't it?


----------



## tech/a

Ves said:


> Whilst the bolded part relates to the question of investment philosophy / approach, I believe the actual result as you stated (40% capital depreciation over 10 years) is a most likely result of poor implementation of an investment philosophy.
> 
> I actually think if you held something for 10 years and it was still 40% under your buy price then one of two things has probably happened:
> 
> 
> You picked the wrong company (ie. the value of each $1 that the company re-invested in its operations is now worth less than a $1)
> Your assumptions were wrong in the first place; which means you paid over the odds
> 
> It would be very unlikely, but not impossible, for the market to be still divergent from current intrinsic value a decade later.
> 
> Ten years is a long time - the idea of investing should always be based around making sure the $1 you invest today is worth a lot more in the future.




While I understand this is an NCM thread the investment philosophy here is one of value infact buying it now and anywhere under $20.I'm questioning that thinking. 



> *
> You picked the wrong company (ie. the value of each $1 that the company re-invested in its operations is now worth less than a $1)
> Your assumptions were wrong in the first place; which means you paid over the odds
> *



At what point do you say Im wrong.
1 yr/5/or more.
Doesnt it become a point of Damn Im not going to realise the loss so Ill just keep it and get the dividends.
The fall may occur in the first year and remain there for years.

In 1993 NCM had a high of $7.50 than plummeted and didnt se that value again for 9 yrs.
It then went to $45 ish in the next 10.
Thats the 10 Id want to be on.
Not averaging down for 10 yrs hoping it would hit pay dirt.

Easier to hold recieving dividends if your capital is INCREASING!

Oh the measured move on an ABC correction on the Monthly chart just happends to be around $7.50-$7

Its often said a bubble returns to its origins.



> Probably the same reason that one person's tea leaves are another person's pattern




Patterns play out even tea leaves.
*You can clearly see your wrong.*

In the case of NCM there seems to be a blurring of analysis.
No accepted right or wrong.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

From an daytrading perspective, the bid side has improved substantially today.


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> Most business textbooks will tell you how major M&A have a much higher chance of value destruction than value creation. And to me the problem is simply inherent in human nature - you need a lot of positive thinking to put on a big deal, and you need a lot of persuation to get it across the line. And that's the danger time when everybody simply think upside and not downside.




Plus there's a whole industry built around getting deals done. Most CEO's and boards do not spend their days trying to value companies, instead they get external advise from people who are incentivised to get deals done. Asymetrical knowledge and incentive is a dangerous thing.


----------



## Ves

tech/a said:


> At what point do you say Im wrong.
> 1 yr/5/or more.
> Doesnt it become a point of Damn Im not going to realise the loss so Ill just keep it and get the dividends.
> The fall may occur in the first year and remain there for years.






> Patterns play out even tea leaves.
> *You can clearly see your wrong.*




The most simple and general fundamental analysis answer to this question is the same as the most simple and general technical analysis answer:   you are wrong when your assumptions have turned out to be wrong.  In the case of F/A you need to make various assumptions in order to come up with a valuation.   If it ever appears that there are irreconcilable differences between your initial (arbitary) assumptions and on-going reality then you should SELL.   It's the same concept:  you enter into the investment or trade with a plan and if the plan does not come to fruition you cut your losses.

I will add one other thing:   patterns play out in the financial status of a company exactly like they do in the tea leaves.   Often you get an inkling of something starting to play out before it is confirmed.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

PS:   I would never buy something like NCM.    It's way outside my circle of competence.


----------



## Bushman

Uncle Festivus said:


> There's going to be ramifications from this - insider trading? That is, if ASIC is not asleep at the wheel, again!




Just had a read of the Citi 'downgrade' reports. Mgt has been hinting at a revised strategy looking to 'maximize free cashflow' at recent presentations inc the recent BoAMerrils Global Metals Conference (Barcelona, mid May). 

Interesting that unlike BHP, NCM mgt did not release this to the ASX? But hardly a case of insider trading given it was said at an investor/analyst day.  maybe they went further in the analyst Q&As or 'one-on-one' sessions. 

If mgt said 'maximize free cash', I would expect this to mean - 
1. exit non-core assets; 
2. scale back capex/exploration; 
3. slash opex; 
4. look at the debt profile/hedge book; 
5. non-core asset sales; 
6. cut the div etc. 

This is also why some pay for full service broking (I don't by I am not typically a ASX50 investor).


----------



## skc

Ves said:


> There's a guy over at Hotcopper called Camden, a very experienced Fundamental Analyst, who has what he calls the "5-4-1 rule" for acquistions.   He believes that roughly 5 acquisitions destroy value,  4 are roughly value neutral in the long term (ie. they don't really add anything) and 1 actually adds value.
> 
> That's a 1 in 10 chance.  Sounds about right, doesn't it?




I've heard this rule from a venture capitalist and how their portfolio companies perform.

For them they only need 1 start out of 10 to make it worthwhile. I guess if that star is Google or something like that, then you wouldn't need too many of them!

Back NCM.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> For once I agree... 3 analyst downgrades and 2 days later a massive writedown. Did NCM management read the analyst reports and realise they need to announce something? Or did the analyst get tipped off?
> 
> Anyhow, Macquarie actually reaffirmed their outperform buy today so that a case of bad timing for sure (and no insiders there!).




Charlie Aitken's rant:



> Managing director of Bell Potter Wholesale Charlie Aitken has called on the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to investigate Newcrest Mining and the timing of its downgrades.






> In a note to clients on Friday morning, Aitken said the Newcrest downgrades had caught his eye this week and thought it was unusual five different broking analysts would change their view on Newcrest at the same time.




http://www.afr.com/Blogs/Opinion_Street Talk#1a32ebde-cf08-11e2-bea9-b00b99973b53


----------



## Bushman

skc said:


> Charlie Aitken's rant:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.afr.com/Blogs/Opinion_Street Talk#1a32ebde-cf08-11e2-bea9-b00b99973b53




or maybe he should get some better sell side analysts ... lol .

whenever I see his name I think of him having that buy on the falling knife called AWC. he rode that puppy all the way down below $1.00


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bintang said:


> Good to see NCM directors buying more of their own shares.
> 
> Vince Gauci bought 6000 shares at $14.74
> Greg Robinson bought 8000 shares at $14.51




Apparently everyone was left in the dark? You can't get more insider than that, so WT?


----------



## Bintang

Uncle Festivus said:


> Apparently everyone was left in the dark? You can't get more insider than that, so WT?




Greg Robinson also bought 8580 shares on 9May at $17.50
Don Mercer bought 4454 shares on 10May at $17.40

Are they just dumb or deviously clever?

I don't know the answer but it looks like they have an incentive to turn things around.

The one thing they haven't downgraded is their reserves. That still looks good to me.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bought by Greg Robinsons' retirement fund - looks like he won't be retiring any time soon then


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> For once I agree... 3 analyst downgrades and 2 days later a massive writedown. Did NCM management read the analyst reports and realise they need to announce something? Or did the analyst get tipped off?






HA!

ASIC is now talking of investigating those clever analysts


----------



## RottenValue

RottenValue said:


> At the risk of being pedantic, it would be more correct to say it would have lost 50% of its price rather than value.
> 
> This stock has low ROE, low EPS growth and therefore little reason to justify even its current PE of 17  - a value of $12 would be more appropriate.  The price fall over the past 5 years reflects PE contraction as the EPS has stagnated.
> 
> I would back the shorters on this one!




I thought I had posted this!  Was early January, the price was in the low $20s and some posters expected it to bounce because it used to be $40.  Good to see the fundamentals finally taking over from the irrational exuberance  -  if a company cant grow earnings per share, it will eventually be worth very little.


----------



## sreeve

NCM chart: The share price went through $12 support level on Friday but bounced to close above. Share price staying above the $12 level is critical... and it now needs to bounce or trend sideways to strengthen this support area.


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> Charlie Aitken's rant:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.afr.com/Blogs/Opinion_Street Talk#1a32ebde-cf08-11e2-bea9-b00b99973b53




The old perma-bull was probably waxing lyrical about it on Thursday.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Someone has some faith?




ASIC looking into Newcrest share downgrades

Investors blast Newcrest as controversial writedown raises disclosure issues


----------



## pixel

Uncle Festivus said:


> Someone has some faith?




JPM and RBC have (re)rated NCM to "Overweight/ Outperform".
From current Lows, that's probably not ureasonable.


----------



## skyQuake

pixel said:


> JPM and RBC have (re)rated NCM to "Overweight/ Outperform".
> From current Lows, that's probably not ureasonable.




Its messier than that:

So over the wkend we have:

- Moody's reviews NCM's ratings for downgrade
- BofAML cuts it to Neutral on Cap raising risks
- RBC raise to outperform
- JPM cuts pricetarget by 11%, but keeps outperform


----------



## faddishworm

Don't forget closing the Brisbane office, cutting expenses and capital expenditure... To me I think it should have happened a few months ago and that if anything cutting costs are good. 

I think if NCM can weather the storm of these gold prices then it will come out again in 8-12 months as a solid performer. 

Physical market indicators are a falling dollar (which is good for export) and increased US money producing, which should cause a hike in gold and since gold is used as a hedge against inflation then it should force prices up.

Am i reading too far into this? I have only been on the stock market since NCM was at 16.4 ha ha.


----------



## Sean K

Whilst OPEX is a significant issue, I feel it's the prospects of POG that is the major issue. The market, while emotional, is factoring in large price decreases in POG. Seemingly due to a healthier economic outlook. Is this just a lull before the storm?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Whilst OPEX is a significant issue, I feel it's the prospects of POG that is the major issue. The market, while emotional, is factoring in large price decreases in POG. Seemingly due to a healthier economic outlook. Is this just a lull before the storm?




There's a squeeze going on & the ultimate direction may surprise? The battle of longs v shorts. You will be hearing more of JPM?


----------



## faddishworm

Uncle Festivus said:


> There's a squeeze going on & the ultimate direction may surprise? The battle of longs v shorts. You will be hearing more of JPM?




This is so true, every time it drops longs have to wait a little longer for a return.

And this morning there is legal drama and an action lawsuit against them - I guess the ASX investigation didn't go perfectly then.

Maybe ill make more money off a class action ha ha.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Newcrest likely to face legal claims


----------



## wadesansom

Uncle Festivus said:


> Newcrest likely to face legal claims




ouch! 

i guess now most people will be selling... 12 million in lawsuits, then the possibility of shareholders taking a class action lawsuit. can't be good for business!


----------



## skc

wadesansom said:


> ouch!
> 
> i guess now most people will be selling... 12 million in lawsuits, then the possibility of shareholders taking a class action lawsuit. can't be good for business!




$12m one-off lawsuit for a $6B company. That's probably just a rounding error.

The class action will not be that big anyway. It's only people who bought say a few days prior to the market update who may have the right to sue for damage. I don't have the volume at hand but I can't imagine it being, at most, 15% of the company's shares suffering 15% loss they could have otherwise avoided had there been more timely disclosure. That's just 2.25% of NCM's market cap. It's big from the litigation lawyer's point of view, but not in relation to NCM.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I bought some during the 'decline' but bought a lot more after, so I'd be interested in a class action if only to replace the div, although at these levels there's probably more up than down to go, especially if the POG breaks out? It's still got a lot of head room (sellers) to clear though so some sort of stabilisation at these levels would obviously be supportive while the weak hands clear their decks to value buyers? At these prices and after the write offs it's still a big discount to underlying assets ie oversold?


----------



## Sean K

Be interesting to see how this goes IF the sentiment to POG changes upward. I think there could be some dramatic spikes up if QE / USD / inflation factors point towards renewal of the POG bull. 

Jim Rogers would be buying now I think.


----------



## dengo

dengo said:


> Gold = $1150 when/if recent support fails
> 
> View attachment 52678




Support gone...


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Anyone done a valuation on NCM lately?


----------



## skc

Gringotts Bank said:


> Anyone done a valuation on NCM lately?




A valuation? You can't get a meaningful answer because you can't get a meaningful answer for the price of gold.

You can do a cross-sector comparison and see if NCM is relatively under/overvalued amongst gold stocks.

You can also do a sensitive analysis to see what NCM is worth at different levels of gold price.

You can even structure some smart hedged position where you potentially long NCM and short gold.

But anyone attempting a straight up valuation would be kidding themselves.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

skc said:


> A valuation? You can't get a meaningful answer because you can't get a meaningful answer for the price of gold.
> 
> You can do a cross-sector comparison and see if NCM is relatively under/overvalued amongst gold stocks.
> 
> You can also do a sensitive analysis to see what NCM is worth at different levels of gold price.
> 
> You can even structure some smart hedged position where you potentially long NCM and short gold.
> 
> But anyone attempting a straight up valuation would be kidding themselves.




ok I did all those three calculations, averaged them, and then I wrote the number on the back of an envelope (which usually helps) and then I did this dance for a few minutes :bananasmi

Came out at $2.50.



I can't do FA.  I want someone else to do it for me.


----------



## tech/a

skc said:


> A valuation? You can't get a meaningful answer because you can't get a meaningful answer for the price of gold.
> 
> You can do a cross-sector comparison and see if NCM is relatively under/overvalued amongst gold stocks.
> 
> You can also do a sensitive analysis to see what NCM is worth at different levels of gold price.
> 
> You can even structure some smart hedged position where you potentially long NCM and short gold.
> 
> But anyone attempting a straight up valuation would be kidding themselves.




But what happened to the SCREAMING BUY!?


----------



## galumay

Gringotts Bank said:


> I can't do FA.  I want someone else to do it for me.




Sorry, FA doesnt work for cyclical resource stocks, thats why generally you wont find us holding resource stocks.

I reckon your method would be just fine, maybe check the tea leaves for a confirmation though.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

galumay said:


> Sorry, FA doesnt work for cyclical resource stocks, thats why generally you wont find us holding resource stocks.
> 
> I reckon your method would be just fine, maybe check the tea leaves for a confirmation though.




I meant one of the comparative valuation methods skc pointed out.

But yes I'm going hard here with the glow sticks...  Cue the music  :bananasmi


----------



## ftw129

tech/a said:


> But what happened to the SCREAMING BUY!?




About 40% down from here


----------



## galumay

Gringotts Bank said:


> But yes I'm going hard here with the glow sticks...  Cue the music  :bananasmi




Its a mental image I could do without, just quietly.


----------



## dengo

ftw129 said:


> About 40% down from here




Agree
$21 - ($36 - $21) = $6


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> But what happened to the SCREAMING BUY!?




I never called this a screaming buy?! Can you please quote the right person?


----------



## skyQuake

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-takeover-offer/story-e6frg8zx-1225909113390

10.5b well spent eh?

Why thats about 25% more than its current mkt cap


----------



## tech/a

skc said:


> I never called this a screaming buy?! Can you please quote the right person?




Didnt quote you quoted the "screaming buy"


----------



## notting

It was a screaming buy, those who bought it are screaming.
Its starting to look like an ERA.
On a positive note, ya wouldn't want last nights drop in the US stock market and recent rise in bond yields to be the start of the inflation play.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Didnt quote you quoted the "screaming buy"




See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
I should have been clearer.


----------



## skc

notting said:


> It was a screaming buy, those who bought it are screaming.








tech/a said:


> See the confusion but thought your body of info was in sync with my own views.
> I should have been clearer.




All good. You made me go back throuhg my own posts to make sure I didn't call it as such..


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A screaming buy? It will be if there's no taper at all and the gold shorts have to cover......


----------



## tech/a

Uncle Festivus said:


> A screaming buy? It will be if there's no taper at all and the gold shorts have to cover......




Agree.
but until then---------


----------



## Uncle Festivus

tech/a said:


> Agree.
> but until then---------




May have already started? As for NCM, until the seller(s) who continually keep the sell side volume over 900k are done then not much upside in the short term?


----------



## RandR

Gringotts Bank said:


> Anyone done a valuation on NCM lately?




I posted this in January on this thread. This valuation still holds true. 

The balance sheet for NCM in the latest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... NCM has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cash flow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earned in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...

 I don't understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing a lot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.


----------



## tech/a

Bintang said:


> If NCM dropped to $6-8 region it would be a double screaming buy and I think you would have to be lighting quick to buy shares at that price before it bounced up like a super ball.
> 25 years ago Newcrest was primarily an explorer but with a little bit of production (and it was called Newmont Australia. Only became Newcrest in 1990 after merging with BHP Gold) .Today it is a major gold producing company.
> The most recent occassion when the share price was ~$6 was in 2003. At that time Newcrest was producing around 700,000 oz gold and 60,000 tonnes copper per year . Today it produces around 2 million oz gold and 76,000 tonnes copper year. Its gold resources and reserves have each approximatley tripled since 2003 and its copper resources and reserves have increased five-fold.
> Newcrest has recently been in an expansion phase which is coming to an end after which production will gradually ramp up to over 3 million oz gold per year.
> Profit in 2003 was $168/oz gold produced. In 2012 profit was $493/oz gold produced.
> I will not bother going into other financials except that at the current share price NCM is already below book value.
> Newcrest is already a screaming buy at around $14.50. Market sentiment and languishing gold price might still send it down a bit more but the downside risk is far smaller IMO than the upside potential.
> Disclosure: I am  accumulating NCM aggressively at current prices.






RandR said:


> I posted this in January on this thread. This valuation still holds true.
> 
> The balance sheet for NCM in the latest annual report is sick barf barf barf. Current liabilities were more then twice current assets ... NCM has next to no cash in the bank (in terms of the size of the company). Despite having record 'operating cash flow' they spent a billion dollars more then they earned in the financial year of 2012 on construction development and drilling. They financed the dividend payments to shareholders by debt...
> 
> I don't understand why people purchase a business to gain exposure to a commodity .. the reality is NCM is in the cash business, the business of producing $$$$ something its not doing quite well or producing a lot of at the moment. NCM is a perfect example of why extreme caution should be had around any commodity business.




So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
Everyone has access to the exact same information?


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
> Everyone has access to the exact same information?




Because we are human...


----------



## galumay

tech/a said:


> So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
> Everyone has access to the exact same information?




Information is just data, it still needs to be interpreted and we all interpret it differently. People tend to read what they want to see into financial reports and other information, positive confirmation.

In that regard its no different to TA, the biggest hurdle any system or strategy has is human nature!


----------



## McLovin

tech/a said:


> So how is it possible to have such a vast difference in Fundamental analysis??
> Everyone has access to the exact same information?




Why are some people good at technical analysis and some aren't, they have access to the exact same charts? Why is my golf swing so cr@p but my mate hits off scratch? Why, why, why?


----------



## tech/a

Ok get it
Very few are good at it.
Even less know how to 
Trade profitably with it.

It's too grey for me
Personally I like the back and 
White of T/A.


----------



## galumay

tech/a said:


> Ok get it
> Very few are good at it.
> Even less know how to
> Trade profitably with it.
> 
> It's too grey for me
> Personally I like the back and
> White of T/A.




We are veering dangerously off topic, but I am amused by your description of TA as black and white, as someone with a mathematical background its more like voodoo to me! The concept defies logic, attemting to predict future events based on historical data is counter intuitive and illogical from a rational perspective.

Mind you i think a fair part of FA is voodoo too, at the end of the day we are all trying to find means to work an irrational market to our advantage and history suggests there is not a difficult answer, let alone an easy one - or we would all be rich.


----------



## tech/a

galumay said:


> We are veering dangerously off topic, but I am amused by your description of TA as black and white, as someone with a mathematical background its more like voodoo to me! The concept defies logic, attemting to predict future events based on historical data is counter intuitive and illogical from a rational perspective.
> 
> Mind you i think a fair part of FA is voodoo too, at the end of the day we are all trying to find means to work an irrational market to our advantage and history suggests there is not a difficult answer, let alone an easy one - *or we would all be rich.*





Not really interested in all.

If your attempting to predict without understanding
How to apply in both forms your doomed to failure.

It's not about being right
It's about being profitable.It's pretty clear that few in BOTH disciplines know how to be profitable.
NCM is a perfect example
As is PEN
RED
To name a few.


----------



## CanOz

Back on topic please, it Saturday!


----------



## willstor

I got out at 24 now I'd look into entering at 9.60 if it went there... With a view to it bouncing to 12.50ish.
I'd like to wait and see just how badly gold goes from here though...the likes of RMS could be finished by September IMO


----------



## ftw129

willstor said:


> I got out at 24 now I'd look into entering at 9.60 if it went there... With a view to it bouncing to 12.50ish.
> I'd like to wait and see just how badly gold goes from here though...the likes of RMS could be finished by September IMO




Is $9.61 close enough?


----------



## cbc

Gee NCM is practically in free fall ATM.

After yesterdays onslaught  

Some people must me feeling it


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ftw129 said:


> Is $9.61 close enough?




If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.

Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.

I'd be waiting.


----------



## ftw129

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If you look at a chart going back to 1995, the next support is around $5.
> 
> Buying in a parabolic downtrend is pure guess work.
> 
> I'd be waiting.




Thanks GG but I wrote that just as NCM bounced off $9.61 (intraday) after the previous poster wrote he was going to buy at $9.60. I was just being a bit cheeky...

As I said a few pages ago, the $6 region is my target but in saying that, I will not be buying anything unless I see it stabilize and start heading back up.... That is, if I buy at all. Not really in the business of buying shares anymore.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ftw129 said:


> Thanks GG but I wrote that just as NCM bounced off $9.61 (intraday) after the previous poster wrote he was going to buy at $9.60. I was just being a bit cheeky...
> 
> As I said a few pages ago, the $6 region is my target but in saying that, I will not be buying anything unless I see it stabilize and start heading back up.... That is, if I buy at all. Not really in the business of buying shares anymore.




Thanks ftw129.

Wise words.

I am 16% Aus Shares, 84% Cash, and waiting for some stabilisation on XAO.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Well I guess this is all we can go by now - to each their own level of pain.....and 'value'.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Nice bounce and positive volume dynamics today.

One of the main arguments in support of buying Newcrest shares is the company’s large gold reserves, estimated to allow production for the next 40 years. It is the largest singly held reserve in the world and with a battered share price several analysts are talking up the possibility Newcrest could be subject to a takeover bid by a rival company.

Bargain of the year?


----------



## CanOz

I wouldn't be jumping in quite yet, but there's a case for three drives to a low with some divergence...


----------



## tech/a

Uncle Festivus said:


> Nice bounce and positive volume dynamics today.
> 
> One of the main arguments in support of buying Newcrest shares is the company’s large gold reserves, estimated to allow production for the next 40 years. It is the largest singly held reserve in the world and with a battered share price several analysts are talking up the possibility Newcrest could be subject to a takeover bid by a rival company.
> 
> Bargain of the year?




Low risk play.
Move stop to B/E
as soon as you can 
and sit back and relax.

Youll either get taken out or become a wealthy genius!


----------



## notting

1.	Never listen to analysts.
2.	It’s all well and good to have huge reserves but if they can’t sell them at a profit the thing is worth zero
3.	It has been an so badly run the whole board and management should be replaced.
4.	Gold price has made a new low and the people like Goldman are shouting it down all over the market. Buffet recently called that he wouldn’t buy gold if it were 800oz not good for sentiment the market listens to him whether you agree or not.
5.	The Gold play that was supposed to be an inflation hedge has been deemed a mistake. As inflation means money will earn appreciating interest in bank accounts and even stocks where as gold earns nothing.
6.	The safety play against financial collapse and inflation is deemed over
7.	China could be on the verge of the biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen. Whilst China shuddered gold got hammered further.  Not sure why, perhaps thinking China might have to sell all it’s gold?  The safety play on that did not help gold.  China won't be buying gold in that scenario.
8.	There doesn’t seem to be a reason to buy gold anymore and the market is spelling that out.  Most notably because the inflation hedge was furphy, inflation or not.

This is what I see as the risks. 
It is interesting however that the gold stocks are rallying despite a new low savage sell off on gold yesterday.  Probably a belated response to China stabalising it's banking system and weaker US$.
Is there volume in todays spikes?  Not yet!

The only reason you should buy it is if you don't think QE is going to end any time soon!


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> Low risk play.
> Move stop to B/E
> as soon as you can
> and sit back and relax.
> 
> Youll either get taken out or become a wealthy genius!




Moving to breakeven... What's the average overnight gap for something like NCM for the last 3 months? Don't misprice your risk.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> Moving to breakeven... What's the average overnight gap for something like NCM for the last 3 months? Don't misprice your risk.




2.056%

Upgaps 1.8% avg
downgaps -2.4% avg

Obviously there are a few outlier gap down days that were quite nasty.

Gap fill at $13 anyone


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> 2.056%
> 
> Upgaps 1.8% avg
> downgaps -2.4% avg
> 
> Obviously there are a few outlier gap down days that were quite nasty.
> 
> Gap fill at $13 anyone




Thanks SkyQ. Catch one of those outlier down gaps and one's breakeven stop becomes back breaking.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> Thanks SkyQ. Catch one of those outlier down gaps and one's breakeven stop becomes back breaking.




IG's GSLOs for NCM are back to 5% limit away. Could be useful for those that worry about overnight crap. 

I believe the GLSO prem is 30bp for NCM which is actually reasonable.



..why I've almost talked myself into entering some fresh longs!


----------



## CanOz

Looks like a fail today...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Looks like a fail today...




Why do you read that as a fail?

B/E lets say hypothetically you bought at $9.62 at the high of yesterday as it was taken out.
You could now place a stop at B/E (well I would ) You want to be with momentum and stay with it.

It needs to prove momentum.
Your right these moves are generally tested to the low side.
You should be OK with a gap down from here.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Why do you read that as a fail?
> 
> B/E lets say hypothetically you bought at $9.62 at the high of yesterday as it was taken out.
> You could now place a stop at B/E (well I would ) You want to be with momentum and stay with it.
> 
> It needs to prove momentum.
> Your right these moves are generally tested to the low side.
> You should be OK with a gap down from here.




I was thinking more of a trade entry long at the break of today's high, which also coincides with the longer term trend line that you can see on the intraday screen shot. I would have liked to see the market prove itself by taking this level out first...if it has another go and the pullback isn't over, it'll likely just "jump the creek" anyway, gapping over resistance on the open....

Lets see...

I'm not trading this, just discussing how you could play it thats all.

CanOz


----------



## ftw129

In the past week the buyers sitting in the market depth have easily doubled whereas the sellers have halved. It was the exact opposite 2 weeks ago....

Does anyone use the market depth to time entries and exits or as a tool for their decision making? (I can imagine a lot of punters would)


----------



## skyQuake

ftw129 said:


> In the past week the buyers sitting in the market depth have easily doubled whereas the sellers have halved. It was the exact opposite 2 weeks ago....
> 
> Does anyone use the market depth to time entries and exits or as a tool for their decision making? (I can imagine a lot of punters would)




Market depth is a lagging indicator imo. Real money hits the market, and gets pulled at the end of the day.


----------



## Country Lad

ftw129 said:


> Does anyone use the market depth to time entries and exits or as a tool for their decision making? (I can imagine a lot of punters would)




Yes, but not just from a look at how many bids and how many offers which is pretty well meaningless, particularly when any bids or offers 10% away from the current price are irrelevant.

I use an algorithm taking into account buy versus sell pressures in the stack and the buy and sell pattern of the trades.  Changes as trades occur gives an indication of market sentiment.  A snapshot at today's close by the system does in fact show positive market sentiment, but this could change at tomorrows open of course.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## willstor

9.60 to 11.13 was a decent bounce. Could still go back and break below 9 now.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Biggest one day move in a long time.  Interesting viewing.


----------



## tech/a

Boom

Now its away!


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> Boom
> 
> Now its away!




You should see the 2nd tier goldies like PRU, EVN, SBM, MML etc.

They are actually better shorts now until the rest of the day imo... got a little bit of PRU @ 59.5 to test the water.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> You should see the 2nd tier goldies like PRU, EVN, SBM, MML etc.
> 
> They are actually better shorts now until the rest of the day imo... got a little bit of PRU @ 59.5 to test the water.




Out at breakeven. Ran out of patience and screen space to keep watching it...


----------



## Bintang

I notice that NCM directors went on a bit of a buying spree at end of June.
Collectively they bought 66,000 shares at an average price of 9.78:

D Mercer	     26-Jun	  5,000 	9.41
R Knight	     27-Jun	 20,000 	9.87
R. Lee	     27-Jun	  3,000 	10.00
P. Aitken	     28-Jun	  5,000 	9.70
J. Sparks	     28-Jun	 14,000 	9.82
V. Gauci	     28-Jun	  9,000 	9.65
G. Robinson   28-Jun	 10,000 	9.83


----------



## oldblue

I normally take note of directors' buying and selling.

Unfortunately, although NCM and other goldies look to be cheap, the price of gold is the chief determinant of these companies' share prices and those directors have no better insight into the future price of gold than the rest of us.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Selling the rally? Evidently still a few want to get out. Until that is absorbed it's going to be a bumpy ride higher?


----------



## Knobby22

I wouldn't want in purely because I expect a class action from US investors. This leak is a major international embarrassment for the ASX.


----------



## ftw129

Uncle Festivus said:


> Selling the rally? Evidently still a few want to get out. Until that is absorbed it's going to be a bumpy ride higher?




(Technically speaking) It has made a higher low but there still doesn't seem to be much evidence of capitulation yet.

If NCM can establish another higher low above the $11.32 area, there would be more grounds for entry (for a short term trade).

$6-8 is still a very real possibility which is almost 50% down from here! Looking at the trend, it's more likely to go down than up.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Two weekly charts

1) Perfect measured move or ABCD.
2) Fib retrace of 50% is likely imo.  (= $16.92)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

ftw129 said:


> (Technically speaking)
> 
> $6-8 is still a very real possibility which is almost 50% down from here! Looking at the trend, it's more likely to go down than up.




I would agree ftw.

It is what we used describe as in downtrend, all we need is massive volume today and next week for your target to be attainable.






gg


----------



## GKLC

Can someone explain to me/give me reasons why Newcrest Mining is going up today (4.40% rise) whereas it just posted a 58 percent fall in its underlying profit from $1.084 billion to $451 million? How does that even work??

#Confused/Beginner at Stock Trading seeking opinions on this stock. I'm only doing paper trading right now.

Feedback appreciated


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Low risk play.
> Move stop to B/E
> as soon as you can
> and sit back and relax.
> 
> Youll either get taken out or become a wealthy genius!




Why does there have to be a reason.
So far doing very well from Uncles Original play!


----------



## skc

GKLC said:


> Can someone explain to me/give me reasons why Newcrest Mining is going up today (4.40% rise) whereas it just posted a 58 percent fall in its underlying profit from $1.084 billion to $451 million? How does that even work??
> 
> #Confused/Beginner at Stock Trading seeking opinions on this stock. I'm only doing paper trading right now.
> 
> Feedback appreciated




The underlying profit reported was largely in line with expectations so while it looks bad compared to the last period the share price has already moved to take that into account.

Gold futures up strongly since Friday and most gold stocks are up strongly today as a result.


----------



## Gundini

GKLC said:


> Can someone explain to me/give me reasons why Newcrest Mining is going up today
> 
> Feedback appreciated




Somebody may have a better answer, but, a stock may disappoint to the downside, but the downside may be less than expected, or less than what has been priced in already, therefore the stock goes up. It is a bit like, "this stock is not as bad as we thought"?

Also, the Gold price have been fairly solid, rising at the moment.


----------



## rbgmauq

NCM has an ongoing P/E of 11.77, which indicates that it is undervalued. The technical indicator is turning a buy with the 15.365 target price in short term.  http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=ncm&c=ax


----------



## Gringotts Bank

12.44 should be the top for the day, lower tomorrow.


----------



## GKLC

skc said:


> The underlying profit reported was largely in line with expectations so while it looks bad compared to the last period the share price has already moved to take that into account.
> 
> Gold futures up strongly since Friday and most gold stocks are up strongly today as a result.




Thanks for the feedback SKC!

- - - Updated - - -



Gringotts Bank said:


> 12.44 should be the top for the day, lower tomorrow.




You were pretty close with the prediction Gringotts, it was 12.48!


----------



## GKLC

rbgmauq said:


> NCM has an ongoing P/E of 11.77, which indicates that it is undervalued. The technical indicator is turning a buy with the 15.365 target price in short term.  http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=ncm&c=ax




Thanks for sharing your response and that site too!

- - - Updated - - -



Gundini said:


> Somebody may have a better answer, but, a stock may disappoint to the downside, but the downside may be less than expected, or less than what has been priced in already, therefore the stock goes up. It is a bit like, "this stock is not as bad as we thought"?
> 
> Also, the Gold price have been fairly solid, rising at the moment.




Sounds logical, thanks for the explanation Gundini!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I think I said "lower tomorrow" because I sold and was trying to convince myself.  Not so sure now.


----------



## jdenhaan

These guys are now trading at a decade low. Gold prices are low, but not at a decade low by a very wide margin. With some cost cutting, I don't see why NCM can't remain profitable in the longer term?

Also, the current share price pretty much covers a lot of the pain ahead. Any reason not to snap this one up while it's cheap?


----------



## McLovin

jdenhaan said:


> These guys are now trading at a decade low. Gold prices are low, but not at a decade low by a very wide margin. With some cost cutting, I don't see why NCM can't remain profitable in the longer term?
> 
> Also, the current share price pretty much covers a lot of the pain ahead. Any reason not to snap this one up while it's cheap?




The more interesting observation is that the price they receive for their product has tripled/quadrupled in the last decade and yet the share price of NCM is at a decade low. Seems like a pretty cr@ppy business to be putting your hard earned dollars into, even by the low standards of most resource stocks.

Make your life easy and avoid these sand traps.


----------



## alexandro

jdenhaan said:


> These guys are now trading at a decade low. Gold prices are low, but not at a decade low by a very wide margin. With some cost cutting, I don't see why NCM can't remain profitable in the longer term?
> 
> Also, the current share price pretty much covers a lot of the pain ahead. Any reason not to snap this one up while it's cheap?




For a short term trade, no reason not to snap it up jdenhaan. I have been buying pass three days and especially on Friday at $8.50. Medium term, I think 7's is a possibility. I will back up the truck once again in the 7's if that eventuates.


----------



## jdenhaan

McLovin said:


> The more interesting observation is that the price they receive for their product has tripled/quadrupled in the last decade and yet the share price of NCM is at a decade low. Seems like a pretty cr@ppy business to be putting your hard earned dollars into, even by the low standards of most resource stocks.
> 
> Make your life easy and avoid these sand traps.



The question is whether that decade low is a function of market sentiment or business fundamentals.


----------



## McLovin

jdenhaan said:


> The question is whether that decade low is a function of market sentiment or business fundamentals.




NCM has a market cap of $6.5b. Three years ago they bought Lihir for $10b. That's massive destruction of shareholder wealth. I wouldn't trust these guys to run a lamington stall. This ain't market sentiment, it's management incompetence.


----------



## ROE

Could be ripe for a take over by newmont  
Rumour a long time gone by that this one day be happening
They getting for peanuts at the current price as all the write off, f**k up has been done
What they get now is pure asset

Someone must be running the number at this price


----------



## ftw129

ftw129 said:


> Calling CanOz & TechA if I may??!!
> 
> Fellas, would be very interested to get your TA on NCM.
> 
> I don't see it "unreasonable" for this one to head all the way back to the $6-8 region (worst case scenario) in the next few months.
> 
> Looking back on the weekly stretching back 25 years it appears as though this was the start of the huge run up.
> 
> I pretty much never buy shares but have been watching this like a hawk and should it reach these levels it will be a screaming buy.
> 
> Interested to hear your thoughts, if any?




So the stock has now entered the upper band of the target area.

What you want to see is a bit of stabilisation in the price before jumping in but placing small chunks in between now and $6 smooths out the roller coaster ride and satisfies the fear of missing out.

Ideally, you'd want to see a bounce followed by a higher low or at least some time taken up at lower levels.

It's difficult to imagine this stock regaining it's huge decline in the same amount of time that it has come down. Not many charts look that pretty that aren't penny dreadfuls. 

A likely scenario will see this stock oscillate for a few years between a possible extreme capitulary low of around $2-$4 (crazy but not impossible... my $6-8 target half way through the year seemed just as impossible) and find resistance at around $8-$12 (the beginning of the huge bull run).

Of course, just my view fwiw. Personally, I've got better things to do with my money but I have enjoyed watching this stock and brush up on my basic TA skills which I have no use for nowadays but am forever amazed at how accurate they can be


----------



## Miner

ftw129 said:


> So the stock has now entered the upper band of the target area.
> 
> What you want to see is a bit of stabilisation in the price before jumping in but placing small chunks in between now and $6 smooths out the roller coaster ride and satisfies the fear of missing out.
> 
> Ideally, you'd want to see a bounce followed by a higher low or at least some time taken up at lower levels.
> 
> It's difficult to imagine this stock regaining it's huge decline in the same amount of time that it has come down. Not many charts look that pretty that aren't penny dreadfuls.
> 
> *A likely scenario will see this stock oscillate for a few years between a possible extreme capitulary low of around $2-$4 (crazy but not impossible... my $6-8 target half way through the year seemed just as impossible) and find resistance at around $8-$12 (the beginning of the huge bull run).*Of course, just my view fwiw. Personally, I've got better things to do with my money but I have enjoyed watching this stock and brush up on my basic TA skills which I have no use for nowadays but am forever amazed at how accurate they can be




Great posting.
My  - please provide some rational on your price speculation of $2-4. 
Yes, gold fever has been cooled down specially from India more and more bad news (from Australian perspective) that with stronger US $, craze for diamond and platinum, Indian women (rich) are not inclined for gold. The buyers are middle class but they do not buy kilos of gold like rich women and black money converters were doing.
But the above statement  from me (purely based on financial daily readings in Internet) even does not give any rational for Newcrest pricing of $2 to $4. 
ASF used to have a rule not to predict price without facts - any one listening 

disclaimer - I do not hold NCM but worked with  Newcrest Gold Mines  in the past.


----------



## ftw129

ftw129 said:


> So the stock has now entered the upper band of the target area.
> 
> A likely scenario will see this stock oscillate for a few years between a possible extreme capitulary low of around $2-$4 (crazy but not impossible... my $6-8 target half way through the year seemed just as impossible) and find resistance at around $8-$12 (the beginning of the huge bull run).
> 
> Of course, just my view fwiw. Personally, I've got better things to do with my money but I have enjoyed watching this stock and brush up on my basic TA skills which I have no use for nowadays but am forever amazed at how accurate they can be






Miner said:


> Great posting.
> My  - please provide some rational on your price speculation of $2-4.
> 
> But the above statement  from me (purely based on financial daily readings in Internet) even does not give any rational for Newcrest pricing of $2 to $4.




Thanks Miner,

I have stated all along that I am using technical analysis to come up with my price targets. "Rational" doesn't come into it. You are asking me to come up with some fundamental reasoning for the "possible extreme capitulary low of $2-4" and I'm not interested in fundamentals. I believe that price action is king.

In any case my price target of $6-8 has been reached however I have offered some room for movement as stock prices tend to over shoot targets. NCM does not appear to have reached a capitulary low where we see a really ugly down day supported by a huge spike in volume which could be the turning point for the stock. These exhaustive lows can be quite extreme and if we were to see another massive sell off in gold or some bad news come out on NCM the $2-4 range is the lowest point the stock has seen in the last 15 years and this would act as an area of support. I wouldn't bet on seeing the stock that low but I just offered it as an "extreme" possibility.

$6-8 was my target.

Hopefully that clears it up for you.


----------



## So_Cynical

ftw129 said:


> Thanks Miner,
> 
> I have stated all along that I am using technical analysis to come up with my price targets. *"Rational" doesn't come into it*.
> 
> $6-8 was my target.
> 
> Hopefully that clears it up for you.




Cleared it up for me...you only mentioned the word Gold once, i could be mistaken but i think the POG may, i say just may have some influence over the Share price of NCM.


----------



## ricee007

So_Cynical said:


> Cleared it up for me...you only mentioned the word Gold once, i could be mistaken but i think the POG may, i say just may have some influence over the Share price of NCM.



Definitely in the long-term...

In the short-term, movements in the POG can be overshadowed by other factors.

OP was talking about short-term.

There we go
R^2 of 0.65 over the last two months between NCM and gold (per UBS Broker Report)

For the kids playing at home, see http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/11/2/saupload_jl8.jpg for an example of a graph with an R^2 of 0.65


----------



## Miner

ftw129 said:


> Thanks Miner,
> 
> I have stated all along that I am using technical analysis to come up with my price targets. "Rational" doesn't come into it. You are asking me to come up with some fundamental reasoning for the "possible extreme capitulary low of $2-4" and I'm not interested in fundamentals. I believe that price action is king.
> 
> In any case my price target of $6-8 has been reached however I have offered some room for movement as stock prices tend to over shoot targets. NCM does not appear to have reached a capitulary low where we see a really ugly down day supported by a huge spike in volume which could be the turning point for the stock. These exhaustive lows can be quite extreme and if we were to see another massive sell off in gold or some bad news come out on NCM the $2-4 range is the lowest point the stock has seen in the last 15 years and this would act as an area of support. I wouldn't bet on seeing the stock that low but I just offered it as an "extreme" possibility.
> 
> $6-8 was my target.
> 
> Hopefully that clears it up for you.




Dear Ftw129

Yes it is now clear as mud 
More seriously thanks a lot and what you stated makes a better sense to me now.
Take care and all the best

Miner


----------



## jdenhaan

Anyone have any insight as to why this one jumped 8% today?


----------



## So_Cynical

jdenhaan said:


> Anyone have any insight as to why this one jumped 8% today?






So_Cynical said:


> i could be mistaken but i think the POG may, i say just may have some influence over the Share price of NCM.




Price of Gold???


----------



## skc

jdenhaan said:


> Anyone have any insight as to why this one jumped 8% today?






So_Cynical said:


> Price of Gold???




Yes and no. NCM has been sort of leading the gold price in the past few sessions. I don't have a explanation but some of those intraday reversals were very sharp and were probably driven short covering.


----------



## ftw129

NCM's recent price action has just hit resistance at the top of the current 3 year long down trending channel. Price action suggests a fall back down to at least $10-$8. Should it find support there and continue  back up past it's recent highs, a long entry at around $12.50 or above on good volume will be justified.

Should the recent low of $6.96 fail and not find support at $6, a retracement back down to the bottom of the channel (which just so happens to be the pre bull area of $2-$4 back in 1998- 2001) is not not an impossibility and is actually quite likely should we see a final panic thrust down. Nothing's impossible in this game. Those of us who have been playing it for a while know this very well.

The likelihood of it's recent bounce being the end of the down trend, although not impossible, is quite low. 

The trend is still down.





(Of course I could be wrong. Just my opinion. Do your own research)


----------



## Sean K

ftw129 said:


> NCM's recent price action has just hit resistance at the top of the current 3 year long down trending channel. Price action suggests a fall back down to at least $10-$8. Should it find support there and continue  back up past it's recent highs, a long entry at around $12.50 or above on good volume will be justified.
> 
> Should the recent low of $6.96 fail and not find support at $6, a retracement back down to the bottom of the channel (which just so happens to be the pre bull area of $2-$4 back in 1998- 2001) is not not an impossibility and is actually quite likely should we see a final panic thrust down. Nothing's impossible in this game. Those of us who have been playing it for a while know this very well.
> 
> The likelihood of it's recent bounce being the end of the down trend, although not impossible, is quite low.
> 
> The trend is still down.
> 
> View attachment 57236
> 
> 
> (Of course I could be wrong. Just my opinion. Do your own research)



Pretty good ftw. Pretty damn good analysis.


----------



## notting

kennas said:


> Pretty good ftw. Pretty damn good analysis.




Sure was!!
Great call ftw129


----------



## ftw129

Thanks guys


----------



## ftw129

Still respecting the resistance line at the top of the downtrending channel with the recent sell off (isn't technical analysis a beautiful thing?!) 




Interestingly, we have formed what looks like the perfect set up for an inverted head and shoulders which is a bullish pattern.

Should the stock break through the channel resistance line and break through the "neckline" of the pattern (as drawn on chart) it will be time to enter a long position.

Could this be the end of the trend? It is starting to look positive but you MUST wait for confirmation.

You will always miss the exciting early gains of a turn around because they are impossible to pick. 

The trend is still down until further notice.

_(Of course I could be wrong. Just my opinion. Do your own research)_


----------



## Uncle Festivus

On a shorter timeline, does anybody have a defibrillator???


----------



## dengo

Bearish pennant continuation pattern

Target = $7.23


----------



## beachlife

I was asked in another thread why I took a trade so this is the best place to answer.  I basically use a mix of Gann and Guppy.  I use a 20 period SMA in a scan because it usually is a good approximation for a trend line.  This is  the day my order was placed.

The price had jumped over the SMA and close was higher than the open.  The stoch was increasing.  Price was above the 50% retracement level.




Price had closed above the MMA and the MMA was narrow.




The Gann swing chart had made a higher bottom and recent highs had been taken out.





The order to buy on stop 2c above the high was placed.
It didnt trigger for the next 2 days but since they were still above the MA the order stayed in place.

It was filled on the open above the high from the first day.  Stop being managed with Guppy count back line.





Stop now has trade in profit.  Time will tell how much I get...provided there isnt a nasty gap down.


----------



## qldfrog

the other way of seeing that in a non T/A way  is that every year or nearly,  gold goes up in july/august; and this seems to repeat;
I indeed bought  relatively heavy on gold last month and expect/hope the cycle will repeat.
But you can always have a black swan event or a company specific drama:
DYOR I actually did not get any NCM this time as I expect more variation in the gold juniors


----------



## fiftyeight

Thanks BL greatly appreciated


----------



## beachlife

No worries.  It got stopped out on the count back line yesterday for only 2.4% of account profit.  WES got stopped today for break even.

Havent had any scan results the last few days but I think there will be some short trades show up tonight.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Anyone sign up for the class action by S&L?

http://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions/newcrest


----------



## qldfrog

Uncle Festivus said:


> Anyone sign up for the class action by S&L?
> 
> http://www.slatergordon.com.au/class-actions/newcrest



I registered as I had substancial interest over that period and  significant losses at time


----------



## Bintang

qldfrog said:


> I registered as I had substancial interest over that period and  significant losses at time




Best of luck qldfrog, and keep us posted.
If the class action is actually successful in recouping anything you might not see much of it after the lawyers have been paid off.


----------



## qldfrog

to be honest, the reason I participate in any of the class actions I am entitled to is not such much money but the fact that it removes the inpunity insiders have when fudging the market;
False releases to the market are usually the reason behind these class actions;
yet I would bet that the individuals involved were well aware of the real figures for their own portfolios.
I want to "keep the bastards honest".
This sadly has disappeared from our political arena, but if we can at least have this reinstated in our corporate bordroom, this is a victory for shareholders and the notion of Justice.

If other "b..ds"(aka lawyers) make most of the bucks, well so be it.
Just sad that the $ usually comes from the company or the insurances premiums paid by the companies, not the culprits


----------



## Bintang

qldfrog said:


> to be honest, the reason I participate in any of the class actions I am entitled to is not such much money but the fact that it removes the inpunity insiders have when fudging the market;
> False releases to the market are usually the reason behind these class actions;
> yet I would bet that the individuals involved were well aware of the real figures for their own portfolios.
> I want to "keep the bastards honest".
> This sadly has disappeared from our political arena, but if we can at least have this reinstated in our corporate bordroom, this is a victory for shareholders and the notion of Justice.
> 
> If other "b..ds"(aka lawyers) make most of the bucks, well so be it.
> Just sad that the $ usually comes from the company or the insurances premiums paid by the companies, not the culprits




Well I do hope you get something back. 
I'm now curious to know what a successful class action like this might actually deliver  in terms of $/share and what this would mean for other share holders who didn't choose to or who didn't qualify to participate in the class action.  If the damages were extremely large one group of shareholders (and their lawyers) would be benefiting at the expense of the other group of shareholders and that doesn't seem fair either.

So does anyone know anything about this? How much might Newcrest have to pay out for their misdemeanor and how would the amount even be determined?


----------



## qldfrog

I will try to keep you posted as it develops, basically usually it ends up is a $ amount that the company pays when it knows it is guilty to allow for a general white wash at the profit of the lawyers and their limited amount of clients.The deals usually close any future litigation.
And I believe the lawyers only start these when they know from the start that they will get to a deal and have the ability to back their claims.


----------



## Bintang

I bet it will take a long, long time though and that also means that even if you do get something back its NPV will be diminished by the long wait.


----------



## qldfrog

Sure but every dollar will be one I do not expect and would not have had anyway;
 I can not loose unless I invest in NCM again (as ultimately the company is the looser), 
That will not be the case until management and policies are wiped out and started afresh, and this will not happen tomorrow in my opinion


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Something going down - or up??? Inside trading - again???



> The trading desk identified unusual trading activity in Newcrest Mining throughout the day. Despite a large number of gold miners giving back their Friday gains over night in Toronto, Newcrest today - after losing 16 cents within 8 minutes of opening - slowly clawed its way higher to close 64 cents higher for the day or 6.43% at AUD10.60. 16 cents of this gain was seen in the closing auction on very high volume: 3,669,255 trades went through this closing auction versus 4,549,399 shares trading hands throughout the trading day. The desk anticipates to see an announcement on this stock tomorrow.


----------



## skyQuake

I am 99% certain saxo desk is wrong. No news tomorrow and a just as mysterious fade


----------



## skc

Uncle Festivus said:


> Something going down - or up??? Inside trading - again???




A few stocks traded and matched funny today. Possibly some funds moving some stock ahead of / in step with the MSCI rebalance tomorrow.

Not sure about an announcement tomorrow, however.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> A few stocks traded and matched funny today. Possibly some funds moving some stock ahead of / in step with the MSCI rebalance tomorrow.
> 
> Not sure about an announcement tomorrow, however.




Correction... MSCI rebalance today (Tuesday) at close.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

2 questions - 

Shouldn't Saxo know about the MSCI rebalance and
How do you know when this takes place and what companies it affects?

The closing depth volumes looks bullish at least, we'll see how she opens today then?


----------



## skyQuake

Uncle Festivus said:


> 2 questions -
> 
> Shouldn't Saxo know about the MSCI rebalance and
> How do you know when this takes place and what companies it affects?
> 
> The closing depth volumes looks bullish at least, we'll see how she opens today then?




Don't know if they keep up. They're a CFD desk so they're not as "deep" 

I didn't see any notes that put NCM as a volume event so no idea what happened there. 

Textbook squeeze up and fade


----------



## notting

> alexandro
> I feel it is very near to a rebound taking place. I base it on previous steep declines and rebounds. The common steep decline from a peak measures 18-26%. Steepest declines have measured 26-30% from the peak. We are curently at 27%. If we allow it to go to 30% from the peak of $36.10 earlier on in the year, then we have about another 75cents to fall (3%). take 75c off todays low of $26.27 gives about $25.50. At $25.50, load up. If it goes to 25, then load up more. If it goes to 24, then put the house on it and go to the bank and get more to put on it and watch it climb back up to 32-36. Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.
> 
> Reply
> 24th-April-2012 11:49 PM #347
> notting
> Then wake up in wet Pajamas and say, "****, it was just a dreeaaam!!!"
> alexandro
> It's good to dream. Anyway, the point is that NCM is due for and not far from a rebound based on previous chart action. It is a very wild volatile stock that can go up as strongly as it does down. There is a 2-3 dollar upside at least. If you buy 10,000 of them, that a neat 30k.




Is it time to Wake up Alexandro and get him to take out that mortgage?
Remembering with affection.
I'm still not convinced but perhaps it's just that hang over you get from living with a mongrel dog bitch for 3 years.
Well, I wasn't exactly living with her, she was just always barking at me through the gaps in the fence when ever I went outside.


----------



## ftw129

ftw129 said:


> Still respecting the resistance line at the top of the downtrending channel with the recent sell off (isn't technical analysis a beautiful thing?!)
> 
> View attachment 57867
> 
> 
> Interestingly, we have formed what looks like the perfect set up for an inverted head and shoulders which is a bullish pattern.
> 
> Should the stock break through the channel resistance line and break through the "neckline" of the pattern (as drawn on chart) it will be time to enter a long position.
> 
> Could this be the end of the trend? It is starting to look positive but you MUST wait for confirmation.
> 
> You will always miss the exciting early gains of a turn around because they are impossible to pick.
> 
> The trend is still down until further notice.
> 
> _(Of course I could be wrong. Just my opinion. Do your own research)_




*Confirmation of bullish breakout. Price target $16-$18*

NCM has gone and broken out of a very bullish pattern. The volume hasn't been huge, which is the only cause for caution.

The price target is $16-18 with a stoploss at around $9.50.





(This is purely my own opinion and should not be construed as advice. This post is only here for illustration purposes only)


----------



## Nortorious

ftw129 said:


> *Confirmation of bullish breakout. Price target $16-$18*
> 
> NCM has gone and broken out of a very bullish pattern. The volume hasn't been huge, which is the only cause for caution.
> 
> The price target is $16-18 with a stoploss at around $9.50.
> 
> View attachment 61112
> 
> 
> (This is purely my own opinion and should not be construed as advice. This post is only here for illustration purposes only)




Nice work ftw129, I'm waiting on some more volume for confirmation and look at getting in just before close on Friday or early Monday. I see the entry risk being around 20% for the position at this stage and would position size it so it is no more than a 2% risk to total portfolio. Looks good so long as it stays above the $12.50 mark.


----------



## ftw129

Nortorious said:


> Nice work ftw129, I'm waiting on some more volume for confirmation and look at getting in just before close on Friday or early Monday. I see the entry risk being around 20% for the position at this stage and would *position size it so it is no more than a 2% risk to total portfolio.* Looks good so long as it stays above the $12.50 mark.




*The bold part*... I like it


----------



## Nortorious

Nortorious said:


> Nice work ftw129, I'm waiting on some more volume for confirmation and look at getting in just before close on Friday or early Monday. I see the entry risk being around 20% for the position at this stage and would position size it so it is no more than a 2% risk to total portfolio. Looks good so long as it stays above the $12.50 mark.




Rock and roll time for NCM based on the weekly close. Will be looking to enter Monday...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looking to match up at open to $13.50 or so, depth is finally on the right side, as long as gold holds, or could be short day-trade? 

Thanks to our friendly central bankers, gold should continue to break out, so maybe good times again for the long suffering NCM shareholders?


----------



## piggybank




----------



## Nortorious

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looking to match up at open to $13.50 or so, depth is finally on the right side, as long as gold holds, or could be short day-trade?
> 
> Thanks to our friendly central bankers, gold should continue to break out, so maybe good times again for the long suffering NCM shareholders?
> 
> View attachment 61194




I haven't been in for long so can't say I'm suffering. Looks positive to me with a close above $14.35ish tomorrow and some increased volume, I'll be rubbing my hands together for the weeks ahead.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm up 30% but getting a bit nervous now, it's been a good run. But when you pan out the charts we are still looking at a stock that used to trade at $40 with fundamentals that were probably just as good as today, apart from copper & the div cancellation? So thinking due for a pullback, then back to long term trend break out?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Well it looks as though we owe a great big thank you to some snotty nosed analyst at UBS for their latest stock 'tickle' - I guess they just wanted to get a few more shares at a cheaper price?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

OK kiddies, I hope you topped up at the lower prices? And thank you UBS......


----------



## sinner

Uncle Festivus said:


> OK kiddies, I hope you topped up at the lower prices? And thank you UBS......
> 
> View attachment 64358




Context. Looks like a bear flag to me...I guess there is some resistance at the $15 and $20 marks to test at some point.




My back of the napkin valuations still look pretty high for a cashflow intensive resources company too.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looking strong today, even with the shutdown of Gosowong ann.

Too high too fast?


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looking strong today, even with the shutdown of Gosowong ann.
> 
> Too high too fast?
> 
> View attachment 65822
> 
> 
> View attachment 65821




Such a badly run peace of garbage.
Waiting for the Gold rush to end for a big short.
But that won't be till the negative interest rate thing in Japan ends!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> Such a badly run peace of garbage.
> Waiting for the Gold rush to end for a big short.
> But that won't be till the negative interest rate thing in Japan ends!




Badly run? They were a bit ordinary before Sandeep Biswan took over, but the company is looking a lot healthier these days, and I wouldn't be surprised if they re-introduced the div again soon to placate long suffering shareholders. 

You'll be waiting a while to short if you are waiting for nirp to end.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> You'll be waiting a while to short if you are waiting for nirp to end.




Didn't have to wait too long!!
Shorted it yesterday and added to it just before lunch.
However this is not 'the big short,' as I am bullish gold in the medium term.  This is really just to feel it out and look for it to look like it's turning up again on international money printing madness, in which case I will cover and buy other gold stocks.irate:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus said:


> Too high too fast?






notting said:


> Didn't have to wait too long!!
> Shorted it yesterday and added to it just before lunch.
> However this is not 'the big short,' as I am bullish gold in the medium term.  This is really just to feel it out and look for it to look like it's turning up again on international money printing madness, in which case I will cover and buy other gold stocks.irate:




Yes, it was tradeable for the taking if so inclined. Like all markets now, turn on a dime.....or central banker rhetoric and or rumor?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Still going strong, target $21?


----------



## ftw129

ftw129 said:


> *Confirmation of bullish breakout. Price target $16-$18*
> 
> NCM has gone and broken out of a very bullish pattern. The volume hasn't been huge, which is the only cause for caution.
> 
> The price target is $16-18 with a stoploss at around $9.50.
> 
> View attachment 61112
> 
> 
> (This is purely my own opinion and should not be construed as advice. This post is only here for illustration purposes only)






Uncle Festivus said:


> Still going strong, target $21?
> 
> View attachment 65984







Price Target zone has been reached and now hitting upper band.

There should be some resistance around these levels especially at $21.

Support at $16 and definite buying at the bottom of the channel!

Stops to be set below the channel.

Good luck!


----------



## notting

Went short on NCM again to day.
Sold Gold stocks Monday.
Wait for the next turn to buy gold stocks again.


----------



## notting

Added to it, but gold showing stability at this point.
When they start talking about the FED now having no reason not to hike again, gold will take a hit.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> Added to it, but gold showing stability at this point.
> When they start talking about the FED now having no reason not to hike again, gold will take a hit.




Not following your logic there - the Fed won't be raising rates if the US is in recession.

Looks like NCM will be opening higher today, although headwinds from the rising $AU means a static price around $1700.

Gold forming another bullish wedge.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not following your logic there - the Fed won't be raising rates if the US is in recession.
> 
> Looks like NCM will be opening higher today, although headwinds from the rising $AU means a static price around $1700.
> 
> Gold forming another bullish wedge.




It's pretty clear that the US is not going into recession and that the FED has good reason to raise again given the strong employment numbers last week.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> It's pretty clear that the US is not going into recession and that the FED has good reason to raise again given the strong employment numbers last week.




I don't think it is clear, in fact a lot of data is already at recession levels.

The employment numbers are complete statistical noise & guestimates - they have been proven to be completely without any substance based on any hard data, so for the Fed to base policy (raising rates) on this set of figures is pointless. Just look up Birth/Death model to see how they simply make things up or extrapolate to trend.

The unemployment number is also completely useless as a data point to base policy on as it vastly underestimates the true level. I've used the word estimate as that's all it is. Better to look at daily withholding taxes for a better picture.

Put it this way, in this climate I wouldn't be making trading decisions to short a gold company by what the Fed may or may not do? 

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...cratic-national-committee-or-sell-it-to-cnbc/

PS gold on the verge of breaking out again so hope you have a tight stop on those shorts?


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> The employment numbers are complete statistical noise & guestimates - they have been proven to be completely without any substance based on any hard data, so for the Fed to base policy (raising rates) on this set of figures is pointless. Just look up Birth/Death model to see how they simply make things up or extrapolate to trend.



Your listening to too much Republican BS. You could argue that it's a backward indicator and that wage growth is a better indicator of inflation danger.


Uncle Festivus said:


> Put it this way, in this climate I wouldn't be making trading decisions to short a gold company by what the Fed may or may not do?



The gold trade on Fed speculation has been an absolute cracker.  As soon as everyone thinks the Fed is going to raise, gold is given the death sentence by every talking head under the sun and as soon as a sizable country starts going neg interest, printing, what ever - the currency war is on 'the Feds not going to raise against that' and goldies go nuts!



Uncle Festivus said:


> PS gold on the verge of breaking out again so hope you have a tight stop on those shorts?



 You betcha it's not a stop it's a flip!! and buy all the others!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Employment numbers sham from an insider - 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/la...-suggests-former-fed-official-says-2016-03-08

Wages peaking out, structural decline -


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Employment numbers sham from an insider -
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/la...-suggests-former-fed-official-says-2016-03-08
> 
> Wages peaking out, structural decline -
> 
> View attachment 66028




It's irrelevant, you go with the general news flow and what's happening on the street.  The street is sayen that workers are getting hard to come by.  That means have to pay to get what you want and that is the FEDs inflation signal and that is why they raised in December.

China neg news yesterday can flip sentiment and oil so that's the play now.
It's testing ten day support and the 1600 break and holding.  On the Neg news from China, now being responded to in kind.  Being down on that is a little contrarian so taking profits, looking to go long, but have to see what the heads think the Fed is going to do,


----------



## notting

Big reversal on this too.
It was smart money too!!!!! - all came in at the close and smashed it from close to it's high.
Gold is going to take a hit.
Sold all my smaller goldies.
as I wrote in SBM thread - 
Fed will raise again even if it is only twice and the market will wake up and reverse on that especially as Europe is likely to need to stay the course on expanding the balance sheet. making the $ get stronger when it's finished this little correction.
Markets are going to be positive for a little while so while global sentiment is going to be ok no need to hedge for macro disaster.
China has realized that a strong yaun with international hand clapping behind it gives them lots of money to buy stuff internationally.  So they will hedge their propping up of the Yaun with that.  No crises in the news.
All good. Gold bad!
Big short.


----------



## notting

Bearing in mind the nudge nudge wink wink agreement rumored to have occurred but denied by the Chinese about no more currency competing, nobody is winning.  
Watching gold and how NCM it behaves as it has a good day getting close to 1760 showing a bit of selling action and joining.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

notting said:


> Bearing in mind the nudge nudge wink wink agreement rumored to have occurred but denied by the Chinese about no more currency competing, nobody is winning.
> Watching gold and how NCM it behaves as it has a good day getting close to 1760 showing a bit of selling action and joining.




Notting and Uncle, 

I haven't looked at gold for a fair while. which is the best ASF thread to follow atm on gold? NCM seems a good value thread, any others?. I could do a search and go in to each thread, but thought I'd be lazy. A mix of fundamental and charting. Thanks. 

gg


----------



## notting

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Notting and Uncle,
> 
> I haven't looked at gold for a fair while. which is the best ASF thread to follow atm on gold? NCM seems a good value thread, any others?. I could do a search and go in to each thread, but thought I'd be lazy. A mix of fundamental and charting. Thanks.
> 
> gg




I like this one cause it's the biggest gold stock on the ASX so it's the best indicator of what the internationals are doing with our gold relative to the dollar.


Re trade - Closed at the open - global growth perceived to be slowing.  Yellen Dovish.


----------



## notting

US $ appears to be stabilizing from it's recent rout on the back of not as much interest rate rises as previously anticipated.
Gold could weaken from here if global economy goes a bit better than priced in.
Started to go short again on NCM


----------



## piggybank

Another goldie up today - 11%. Last time we saw it at these prices - that is NCM - was 3 years ago.


----------



## notting

Fortunately I wasn't short going into today.
However the reaction to the US jobs data was totally over blown.
Analysts reckon this is still good value, so just watching while it's popular.
I will still be surprised if it's up tomorrow.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Time, trend & sentiment? Breakup = market risk off, CB bubbles burst?


----------



## Miner

Oct 19-2017 last posting.
It is almost 5 months and there was no posting. So I thought to write something.
Folks, how many of us realise that NCM is an Australian company, unlike Barrick or Newmont?
How could us in ASF because so immune not to comment on the massive earthquake effect on Cadia gold mines - so many weeks of production loss?
THen insult to injury - today's press report on CADIA (second natural incidence) about tailing episode - market flogged with about 5% down. Today market was very juicy, people are on holiday in East and generally buoyant market.
What happens tomorrow?
Newcrest is a good gold company with  CADIA still the darling with an absolute AISC from that site, growth in PNG (do not forget the earthquake in PNG recently sand reportedly  NCM mines were escaped).
Just watching on side line. .


----------



## kid hustlr

From what I have seen NCM has almost been the worst performing major gold stock on the ASX over recent months.

A lot of the gold stocks have performed well lately - perhaps it's finally NCM's turn to join the party.


----------



## greggles

That announcement on 12 March regarding the Cadia northern tailings dam really had a big impact. It was a bit of an overreaction, but it's clear the dust hasn't settled yet.

I think it's just a matter of waiting until the sentiment pendulum starts to swing back into positive territory. It's definitely undervalued at the moment.


----------



## greggles

kid hustlr said:


> A lot of the gold stocks have performed well lately - perhaps it's finally NCM's turn to join the party.




NCM up 2% this morning and looking to break through $20.40. Might finally be ready to make a sustained move north.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

greggles said:


> NCM up 2% this morning and looking to break through $20.40. Might finally be ready to make a sustained move north.




Yes, I think many gold stocks are going to have a massive and sustained run.


----------



## greggles

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes, I think many gold stocks are going to have a massive and sustained run.



I agree. Newcrest finished the day up 2.8% so things are looking positive. We just need to see gold head north tonight.


----------



## Trav.

Just looking at a couple of goldies and noticed NCM heading towards their 52 week low of $19.31

I had a look at the March Qrtly and could not see if they hedged their gold sell price. Does anyone know?


----------



## barney

Not sure about all their projects Trav or what they have after June this year but I assume they would have some form of forward planning as in the past … Telfer Hedging up to June 2018 below


----------



## notting

Gold stocks are rallying today but NCM isn't
I remain unconvinced unless NCM goes with them.
It's the biggest and gets more international interest so it kind of indicates that theres not a huge amount of safe haven hunting just yet. 
It's just local punters!

Although NST is almost the new bell weather ausi goldie and it's certainly showing strength.


----------



## SirRumpole

*Why gold shares like Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX:NCM) could outshine the market in 2019*

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/09/24/...ted-asxncm-could-outshine-the-market-in-2019/

I'm hoping 2019 is coming a bit early.


----------



## Miner

Folks
Just wondering if a company is obligated to advise the stock exchange on the following considering they do have market impact?

Penalty imposed by the court towards company's obligation to a fatality ? NSW court has imposed $450,000 towards a death of an employee and company has accepted the penalty. This has been communicated to all employees as a good initiative but why not informed ASX ?
When plant gets shut for various incidences : eg tailing pipe burnt and plant shut for more than a week, critical break down by ripping of conveyor belt and plant shutdown, thickener breakdown and plant gets shut for two weeks.
Dingo incidence is well known through the newspaper story - not sure if that was reported in ASX either.
Newcrest claims to be Miner of Choice - and I suppose could the above be good examples for a reputed organisation ?
Disclaimer - Do not hold


----------



## Ann

_*Canada's Barrick Gold considers hostile $19 billion bid for Newmont Mining: media*

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Canada’s Barrick Gold Corp is considering a hostile bid for Newmont Mining Corp for about $19 billion in stock, in what would potentially be one of the largest-ever mining deals, the country’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported.
The paper, which also reported that Barrick would flip some of Newmont’s assets to Australia’s Newcrest Mining, cited industry sources familiar with the situation. 

Under the potential terms, Barrick would keep Newmont’s Nevada and African mines, while Newcrest was considering taking over its Australian operations, according to the report......More _


----------



## kid hustlr

Ugly day for goldies today and really mixed performance for gold miners across recent weeks.

NCM interestingly enough has held up better than most and is threatening a break out. Although a little 'late' with the ideal entry being several weeks back, this is a good looking pattern to me.


----------



## rederob

Newcrest peaked at $43.46 way back in November 2010.
It's a substantially stronger gold miner nowadays with solid assets, several producing at lowest quartiles and thereby generating very strong cash returns.
Newcrest appears to have recovered from earthquake damage last year to it's Cadia Valley mine and tailings dam, and as this is one of the world's most profitable mines it stands to lift NCM substantially above its average 2018 share price of approx $21.
Today's closing price of $34.02 is NCM's highest since February 2012, placing it less than $10 off its record high.
Near term the gold price seems well-based over $1400/oz and as NCM's buying action appears heavily dependent on POG's daily price movements, buying the dips in a bull market makes sense. 
Otherwise, should POG fall back, there is strong support around $27.20 and this represents an ideal price to add.


----------



## Miner

rederob said:


> Newcrest peaked at $43.46 way back in November 2010.
> It's a substantially stronger gold miner nowadays with solid assets, several producing at lowest quartiles and thereby generating very strong cash returns.
> Newcrest appears to have recovered from earthquake damage last year to it's Cadia Valley mine and tailings dam, and as this is one of the world's most profitable mines it stands to lift NCM substantially above its average 2018 share price of approx $21.
> Today's closing price of $34.02 is NCM's highest since February 2012, placing it less than $10 off its record high.
> Near term the gold price seems well-based over $1400/oz and as NCM's buying action appears heavily dependent on POG's daily price movements, buying the dips in a bull market makes sense.
> Otherwise, should POG fall back, there is strong support around $27.20 and this represents an ideal price to add.



Newcrest has CADIA but also has Telfer (4 years life left, 0.5 to 0.7  gm per ton), PNG . Of course now they are investing on Ludin Gold and ENR. Newcrest is however looking good on my portfolio now - so not complaining


----------



## Miner

Congratulations to NCM holders for an astounding Quarterly performance report
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190725/pdf/446vwb0kn8t47p.pdf


----------



## Gringotts Bank

NCM looks like it will drop to 31.68 by Nov1.


----------



## Miner

Gringotts Bank said:


> NCM looks like it will drop to 31.68 by Nov1.



Thanks. Could you please provide some basis ?
Just curious. My ex boss Sandeep may get heart  attack to learn.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Miner said:


> Thanks. Could you please provide some basis ?
> Just curious. My ex boss Sandeep may get heart  attack to learn.



Tell Sandeep I am in rare form, however 'rare' is the operative term.  Long term looks good, so I'd look to enter long at 31.68.  Two major trendline breakdowns have short targets which converge at that price point, plus the volume profile of the big May run-up sits here, so there should be strong buying support for a trade.  If it happens around Nov 1 then there will be a 4th reason for support at that level in the form of the line forming the lower limit of the big flag.  Not advice, dyor etc.


----------



## Miner

Gringotts Bank said:


> Tell Sandeep I am in rare form, however 'rare' is the operative term.  Long term looks good, so I'd look to enter long at 31.68.  Two major trendline breakdowns have short targets which converge at that price point, plus the volume profile of the big May run-up sits here, so there should be strong buying support for a trade.  If it happens around Nov 1 then there will be a 4th reason for support at that level in the form of the line forming the lower limit of the big flag.  Not advice, dyor etc.



@Gringotts Bank and all
Good morning. Read the quarterly report of newcrest. 
I see now Gringotts was ahead. 
Market will react pretty soon on all negatives published.
Stay calm.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Miner said:


> @Gringotts Bank and all
> Good morning. Read the quarterly report of newcrest.
> I see now Gringotts was ahead.
> Market will react pretty soon on all negatives published.
> Stay calm.



Thanks Miner.  I agree it looks like it might go a bit lower.  I'm now thinking around the green area.

The 3 circled areas (hard run ups) failed to follow through to reach their upside targets.


----------



## tinhat

Not withstanding the technical analysis above, I have a hunch, and just a hunch that gold will go higher in the medium term and NCM is one of my picks amongst gold miners.

I just don't see the XAO overcoming the 2007 top while sailing so close to the wind, in that it is at the upper end of its channel range since the 2009 bottom. But that may just be my eternal pessimism clouding over. That said, gold miners may also retrace further  on any market correction.

chart is XAO


----------



## Trav.

I got a buy signal (daily) on this yesterday and was looking at gold companies (NST) tracking the price of gold, so thought that I would have a look at NCM as well and can see similarities but just a little more pronounced.

Anyway chart below and will be watching next week.


----------



## Trav.

Entered today @ $32.23 and looking for a retrace to around ~ $37 so we will wait and see.


----------



## Trav.

The below chart is a good example of wave 'c' retrace as it lines up pretty good with the Fibonacci figure 1.618.....imagine that.

Always interesting to see a real life example instead of something in a text book from 20 years ago.

Still holding


----------



## tinhat

Trav. said:


> The below chart is a good example of wave 'c' retrace as it lines up pretty good with the Fibonacci figure 1.618.....imagine that.
> 
> Always interesting to see a real life example instead of something in a text book from 20 years ago.
> 
> Still holding
> 
> View attachment 98831




Also, it bounced off the 200 day moving average twice in November (11/11 - "well may we say 'God save the Queen'"/"such is life" and 26/11).

It's still a bit too expensive for my liking.


----------



## Miner

tinhat said:


> Also, it bounced off the 200 day moving average twice in November (11/11 - "well may we say 'God save the Queen'"/"such is life" and 26/11).
> 
> It's still a bit too expensive for my liking.



Looks like @tinhat  NCM has been following your wish, with constant south direction move even the mines are located in North .
Today hopefully the market will get some upward direction with NCM being included on ASX 20 and gold price movement however temporary the reaction would be. The instos would balance their portfolio with more buying NCM.  Lets see if my 'wish' comes true.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191213/pdf/44ck512fblt235.pdf


----------



## Miner

Miner said:


> Looks like @tinhat  NCM has been following your wish, with constant south direction move even the mines are located in North .
> Today hopefully the market will get some upward direction with NCM being included on ASX 20 and gold price movement however temporary the reaction would be. The instos would balance their portfolio with more buying NCM.  Lets see if my 'wish' comes true.
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191213/pdf/44ck512fblt235.pdf



My comment before market opens, has not been accepted by market. The price for today has not halted the south direction. Now I am getting panicked - something could be seriously wrong with Newcrest, and outsiders do not know.


----------



## Trav.

I got out yesterday for a loss. Not happy but learning to cut losses quicker.


----------



## tinhat

Miner said:


> My comment before market opens, has not been accepted by market. The price for today has not halted the south direction. Now I am getting panicked - something could be seriously wrong with Newcrest, and outsiders do not know.



I think its a pretty solid company, but a very stupid and powerful person once famously spoke about not knowing what you don't know. I don't think I've ever made money from a gold mining stock!


----------



## Cam019




----------



## rederob

Cam019 said:


> View attachment 99274



I thought the June 2020 *continuation gap* was likely to be filled and suggested it as a re-entry point back in July from memory.
Anyway, as the past month has seen POG rise nicely the probable carry through into 2020 will see the likes of Newcrest outperform much of the market imho and its present price represents a chance to earn around 30% on the probability POG returns to a sustainable $1550.


----------



## barney

rederob said:


> Anyway, as the past month has seen POG rise nicely the probable carry through into 2020 will see the likes of Newcrest outperform much of the market imho




Along with that line of thinking I have NCM as one of my picks in the yearly comp.


----------



## qldfrog

barney said:


> Along with that line of thinking I have NCM as one of my picks in the yearly comp.



I actually took a few shares a few minutes ago, from both charts, POG and gold discussion, probably a bet to take


----------



## Miner

Interesting article on NCM by Motley free newsletter.
https://www.fool.com.au/2020/01/14/...est-way-for-you-to-profit-from-the-gold-boom/
I love Newcrest and knowing the profitability will enhance with Telfer mines is phasing out, capital expenditure has been drastically reduced for this and next two years. Stated minelife at Telfer could be max 5 years unless there is an acquisition of satellite mines around Telfer - my favourite @ENR for example.
Even  a holder of NCM and great fan of Sandeep Biswas, I believe until Telfer is closed out, Cadia will keep on feeding the other operations at the cost of profitability.
Ludin is an excellent company but it needs a great leader. Reportedly the past GM of Telfer has been seconded to LUdin. My cynism is - he could not fix Telfer - would he able to manage LUDIN to support global operations. Time will tell us when quarterly report gets out.


----------



## Miner

Newcrest has done it again - 
all good metrics even Telfer with my surprise because of low grade and getting closed in less than 3 years (??) unless some good ore body comes (My ENR hope)
In addition cash from sale announced late today.
Hope market will recover on Monday and real analysts will provide due credence to NCM share (now ASX 20) . Yes, I am some what emotionally attached with Telfer being an ex service provider and financially due to my small share holding . I 
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200130/pdf/44dm804rkmqxjr.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200131/pdf/44dqp4nq5h2l2s.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/NCM

Good luck folks .


----------



## rederob

Miner said:


> Newcrest has done it again -
> all good metrics even Telfer with my surprise because of low grade and getting closed in less than 3 years (??) unless some good ore body comes (My ENR hope)
> In addition cash from sale announced late today.



I read and re-read their report and wondered why COMMSEC has a "*sell*" on them as of Friday with a $25 target price.
AISC are US$860/ounce with an AISC margin of approx $600/oz. 
As of this quarter NCM are selling at over $1500/oz which is be best they have received since April 2013.
NCM expects to produce between 2.2moz and 2.5moz of gold in the financial year so will be making massive profits even if POG were to settle where it is today (approx $1580/oz).
However, I expect POG to be well over $1600 by mid-year, with a likelihood that the coronavirus scare will see a big spike next week, thus sustaining POG over $1600 from next week onwards.
The other things that COMMSEC seemed to overlook was that NCM have had recent exploration successes, while their Red Chris mine in Canada is still ramping up and will not be at full production until 2021.  In that light I can't see much bad news ahead.


----------



## Miner

rederob said:


> I read and re-read their report and wondered why COMMSEC has a "*sell*" on them as of Friday with a $25 target price.
> AISC are US$860/ounce with an AISC margin of approx $600/oz.
> As of this quarter NCM are selling at over $1500/oz which is be best they have received since April 2013.
> NCM expects to produce between 2.2moz and 2.5moz of gold in the financial year so will be making massive profits even if POG were to settle where it is today (approx $1580/oz).
> However, I expect POG to be well over $1600 by mid-year, with a likelihood that the coronavirus scare will see a big spike next week, thus sustaining POG over $1600 from next week onwards.
> The other things that COMMSEC seemed to overlook was that NCM have had recent exploration successes, while their Red Chris mine in Canada is still ramping up and will not be at full production until 2021.  In that light, I can't see much bad news ahead.



One postulate is the fear of groundwater loss in Cadia and possible drought.


----------



## qldfrog

Miner said:


> One postulate is the fear of groundwater loss in Cadia and possible drought.



My only issue with NCM is the odds on working in what is a near active volcano.putting a money making facility there is not for the faint hearted but this is the reason gold is there in the first place.
I own a small allotment


----------



## noirua

Don't forget the tie in with the UK's AIM quoted Greatland Gold GGP. Drilling results at Haveiron, Patterson prospect, show substantial Au widths open at depth that look very promising. Even for a company the size of Newcrest it is very interesting.
https://greatlandgold.com/
385 square kilometres  in north western Australia and includes the Company’s Havieron prospect with peak grades  of 211.3g/t Au, 12.38% Cu and 4,104ppm Co and which is under a US$65M Farm-In agreement with Newcrest Mining.


----------



## rederob

noirua said:


> Don't forget the tie in with the UK's AIM quoted Greatland Gold GGP. Drilling results at Haveiron, Patterson prospect, show substantial Au widths open at depth that look very promising. Even for a company the size of Newcrest it is very interesting.
> https://greatlandgold.com/
> 385 square kilometres  in north western Australia and includes the Company’s Havieron prospect with peak grades  of 211.3g/t Au, 12.38% Cu and 4,104ppm Co and which is under a US$65M Farm-In agreement with Newcrest Mining.



And adding a bit more about Red Chris:

20 moz gold resource
13 billion pound copper resource
next 6 month will triple both gold and copper output
AISC possibly neutral by end f/y 2020, depending on where POG settles and will become a cash cow in 2021


----------



## rederob

noirua said:


> Don't forget the tie in with the UK's AIM quoted Greatland Gold GGP. Drilling results at Haveiron, Patterson prospect,....



This is part of the Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest at Havieron gold/copper project – Newcrest earning up to 70% by spending up to US$65m.
As I noted after reading even more about Newcrest's pipeline of projects, it is hard to see them doing anywhere near as poorly as COMMSEC has forecast, barring an unforeseen catastrophic event (nothing like coronavirus).


----------



## qldfrog

rederob said:


> This is part of the Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest at Havieron gold/copper project – Newcrest earning up to 70% by spending up to US$65m.
> As I noted after reading even more about Newcrest's pipeline of projects, it is hard to see them doing anywhere near as poorly as COMMSEC has forecast, barring an unforeseen catastrophic event (nothing like coronavirus).



I see coronavirus as a big plus for NCM


----------



## noirua

*The elephant in the room: How large could Greatland Gold and Newcrest Mining’s Havieron project be? (GGP, NCM)*
https://miningmaven.com/blog/1009-t...newcrest-mining-s-havieron-project-be-ggp-ncm

Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP) powered forward to a record high of 3.78p at the end of last week after posting an “_outstanding” _set of drilling results for the Havieron asset it is advancing with Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM). 
With a market cap of £104.1 million, the Australia-focused gold explorer and developer sat nearly 110% higher than it did at the beginning of 2020 after riding a massive wave of increased trading volume in its shares. 
The market is now eager to see the extent to which Greatland can build on this success and how big Havieron could ultimately prove to be, with an extra $25 million expected to be spent on the property this year.


----------



## noirua




----------



## noirua




----------



## Miner

noirua said:


> *The elephant in the room: How large could Greatland Gold and Newcrest Mining’s Havieron project be? (GGP, NCM)*
> https://miningmaven.com/blog/1009-t...newcrest-mining-s-havieron-project-be-ggp-ncm
> 
> Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP) powered forward to a record high of 3.78p at the end of last week after posting an “_outstanding” _set of drilling results for the Havieron asset it is advancing with Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM).
> With a market cap of £104.1 million, the Australia-focused gold explorer and developer sat nearly 110% higher than it did at the beginning of 2020 after riding a massive wave of increased trading volume in its shares.
> The market is now eager to see the extent to which Greatland can build on this success and how big Havieron could ultimately prove to be, with an extra $25 million expected to be spent on the property this year.



excellent article and video - I am honestly not nervous on NCM because I know the operation and management so well. If there is any inside story - then can not guess and will suffer myself too.
Otherwise knowing Shaw Wallace has given a TP as $25, i am seeing it add than sell. 
Yes, do hold.


----------



## barney

Miner said:


> i am seeing it add than sell.




Market has not been friendly since the half yearly. For longer term gold bugs that old range could prove an accumulation zone as you say @Miner


----------



## tinhat

barney said:


> Market has not been friendly since the half yearly. For longer term gold bugs that old range could prove an accumulation zone as you say @Miner
> 
> View attachment 100453



The market generally punishes underperformance and poor outlooks at confession time. I can't believe I didn't pay attention to that descending triple (quadruple?) top. Looking back at the chart that was rather ominous.


----------



## barney

tinhat said:


> The market generally punishes underperformance and poor outlooks at confession time. I can't believe I didn't pay attention to that descending triple (quadruple?) top. Looking back at the chart that was rather ominous.




Bit of a bounce out of that 'accumulation' zone so far today … up 3.5%.  

Given the Gold price and their AISC of under $900/ounce the recent drop looked a bit over done, but my fundamentals are pretty basic.

Interesting that yesterdays low actually filled the gap from 3rd June last year which gives todays price action a 'technical' vote of confidence and should set the short term low at around $27.19 if it goes to plan.


----------



## rederob

Some points on Newcrest's hedge position:

The first half of f/y 2020 included 105,768 ounces of Telfer gold sales hedged at an average price of AU$1,708 per ounce, representing a net revenue loss of $33 million.
At 31 December 2019, the unrealised mark-to-market loss (before tax) on these hedges was $152 million.
Total gold ounces hedged until 30 June 2023 are 658,199 ounces at AU$1,875/oz.

Newcrest has now ceased its program of hedging
I guess the good news is that the volume of hedging versus total production represents about 10%/year over the next 3.5 years.
However, it was pretty poor form to hedge so far out with such out of the money returns.


----------



## So_Cynical

Newcrest is the big aussie Gold miner and if POG is to have a GFC style run up then NCM is the stock that will benefit the most, i can't for the life of me see how with all this apocalyptic fear the POG isn't skyrocketing, it just has to happen at some point.


----------



## Miner

So_Cynical said:


> Newcrest is the big aussie Gold miner and if POG is to have a GFC style run up then NCM is the stock that will benefit the most, i can't for the life of me see how with all this apocalyptic fear the POG isn't skyrocketing, it just has to happen at some point.



SC - Sandeep (CEO Newcrest)  will love you for sure but probably think twice hugging you to follow social isolation and paying $1000 fine . Thanks for your trust on NCM


----------



## rederob

NCM now have earned a 40% interest in Havieron.
Another $25m expenditure earns them a further 20%.
NCM can potentially earn/buy up to 80% interest in this incredibly rich discovery.
One to look forward to.


----------



## noirua

With the troubles in America and Hong Kong there should be a strong swing to gold as it moves to become a reserve currency. We could well see a rise to 3,000 dollars in the short term - in Aussies of course.
https://www.newcrest.com/
Http://goldprice.org/charts/gold_3d_b_o_AUD.png
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/FX/USDAUD/chart
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/FX/USDAUD/stock-price


----------



## noirua

*SolGold raises £27 mln to fund exploration of copper, gold in Ecuador*
*5 June 2020*
https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N2DI35R
Newcrest, which also has a 15% stake in SolGold, was not immediately available for comment. [ Stake presently worth about A$115 million before the placing ]


----------



## noirua

Greatland GOLD AIM:GGP
In accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules ("DTR"), SolGold Plc (the "Company") was informed by Newcrest Mining Limited , in fulfilment of the obligations of Rule 5 of the DTR, and as a result of new shares issued and allotted by the Company and admitted to trading on 9 June 2020, that Newcrest Mining Limited subsidiary Newcrest International Pty Ltd continues to hold 281,216,471 ordinary shares in SolGold, however its interest has decreased from 14.62 per cent to 13.72 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


> Greatland GOLD AIM:GGP
> In accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules ("DTR"), SolGold Plc (the "Company") was informed by Newcrest Mining Limited , in fulfilment of the obligations of Rule 5 of the DTR, and as a result of new shares issued and allotted by the Company and admitted to trading on 9 June 2020, that Newcrest Mining Limited subsidiary Newcrest International Pty Ltd continues to hold 281,216,471 ordinary shares in SolGold, however its interest has decreased from 14.62 per cent to 13.72 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.




And where is the DFS for SolGold?

Just like DEG on the ASX!

Just noise until you show me results. Sure, go try ride the wave of euphoria!


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Chronos-Plutus said:


> And where is the DFS for SolGold?
> 
> Just like DEG on the ASX!
> 
> Just noise until you show me results. Sure, go try ride the wave of euphoria!




NCM have the capital to play with, but that Indian CEO will be pulling his head in very soon!


----------



## tinhat

I sold all my NCM after the record date for the SPP and got most of them back through the SPP. In the mean time I've been trading SAR.

Owning NCM is all about the cycle. I reckon if you are long gold and you want to back a gold miner and you reckon gold is going to go up then NCM is the viola of the orchestra. It ain't going to get a solo but it's there when you need it.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

tinhat said:


> I sold all my NCM after the record date for the SPP and got most of them back through the SPP. In the mean time I've been trading SAR.
> 
> Owning NCM is all about the cycle. I reckon if you are long gold and you want to back a gold miner and you reckon gold is going to go up then NCM is the viola of the orchestra. It ain't going to get a solo but it's there when you need it.




Sure, however:

- What are the *proven* gold producing assets?

- What is the AISC?

On this basis, NCM are the best on the planet.


----------



## rederob

Aside from the rise of gold's price today improving NCM's lot, their exploration announcement regarding results at Havieron and Red Chris was excellent.
NCM now has some of the best gold assets in the world and as it is more exposed to spot prices than many of its Australian cousins, its next report should be glowing.
Unlike @tinhat I simply added to my 2k+ holding and will sit on it until this bull run in gold runs out of legs.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

rederob said:


> Aside from the rise of gold's price today improving NCM's lot, their exploration announcement regarding results at Havieron and Red Chris was excellent.
> NCM now has some of the best gold assets in the world and as it is more exposed to spot prices than many of its Australian cousins, its next report should be glowing.
> Unlike @tinhat I simply added to my 2k+ holding and will sit on it until this bull run in gold runs out of legs.




The Havieron results were massive, one drill result was 109m @ 6.3g/t Au; that is surely confirmation of a potential tier 1 asset; and NCM will only pay $65 million for 70% of this resource. What a bargain.


----------



## sptrawler

The only cloud on the horizon for gold, is crypto currency, a lot of the price speculation revolves around gold becoming the reserve currency again.
If the World goes to a universal crypto currency, gold becomes jewelry.
To me it is a bit like a game of two up.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Trav.

Daily chart for NCM below.

Some volatility in the SP ( a little to much for me) as May ranged range from L to H -  $25.15 to $32.36

Some up side for NCM ~ 8% to short term resistance and could possibly have a good week so one to watch.


----------



## noirua

Augers well for next week's trading as American and Canadian gold shares shift upward by 2% to !5% on late trading in the states and Canada last Friday.
Australian Gold Chart: Http://goldprice.org/charts/gold_3d_b_o_AUD.png


----------



## noirua

Chronos-Plutus said:


> And where is the DFS for SolGold?
> 
> Just like DEG on the ASX!
> 
> Just noise until you show me results. Sure, go try ride the wave of euphoria!



*SolGold in talks to source $2.85bn of funding for Alpala project in Ecuador
11 March 2020*
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/ne...85bn-of-funding-for-Alpala-project-in-Ecuador

Solgold Powerpoint Presentation
March 2020
http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-conten...rporate_PPT_PDAC-2020-ECUADOR-DAY_final-1.pdf

The Alpala contract is very big and the reason Newcrest jumped in. It will take up to 4 years before it reaches close to the maximum production level. As it is such a big mine for the future there are the usual risks on the way to 2024.

*SolGold PLC Announces Mineral Resource Estimate Update*
April 7 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-r...2020-04-07-22643038?mod=mw_quote_news&tesla=y

SolGold employs a staff of 737 employees of whom 98% are Ecuadorean. This is expected to grow as the operations expand at Alpala, and in Ecuador generally. SolGold focusses its operations to be safe, reliable and environmentally responsible and maintains close relationships with its local communities. SolGold has engaged an increasingly skilled, refined and experienced team of geoscientists using state of the art geophysical and geochemical modelling applied to an extensive database to enable the delivery of ore grade intersections from nearly every drill hole at Alpala. SolGold has 86 geologists, of whom 30% are female, on the ground in Ecuador exploring for economic copper and gold deposits.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


> *SolGold in talks to source $2.85bn of funding for Alpala project in Ecuador*
> https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/ne...85bn-of-funding-for-Alpala-project-in-Ecuador
> 
> Solgold Powerpoint Presentation
> http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-conten...rporate_PPT_PDAC-2020-ECUADOR-DAY_final-1.pdf
> 
> The Apala contract is very big and the reason Newcrest jumped in. It will take up to 4 years before it reaches close to the maximum production level. As it is such a big mine for the future there are the usual risks on the way to to 2024.




NCM and BHP own a significant portion of the company. I looked at SolGold; I want to see a PFS before I jump in. Same with DEG, where is the PFS?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


> *SolGold in talks to source $2.85bn of funding for Alpala project in Ecuador
> 11 March 2020*
> https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/ne...85bn-of-funding-for-Alpala-project-in-Ecuador
> 
> Solgold Powerpoint Presentation
> March 2020
> http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-conten...rporate_PPT_PDAC-2020-ECUADOR-DAY_final-1.pdf
> 
> The Alpala contract is very big and the reason Newcrest jumped in. It will take up to 4 years before it reaches close to the maximum production level. As it is such a big mine for the future there are the usual risks on the way to 2024.
> 
> *SolGold PLC Announces Mineral Resource Estimate Update*
> April 7 2020
> https://www.marketwatch.com/press-r...2020-04-07-22643038?mod=mw_quote_news&tesla=y
> 
> SolGold employs a staff of 737 employees of whom 98% are Ecuadorean. This is expected to grow as the operations expand at Alpala, and in Ecuador generally. SolGold focusses its operations to be safe, reliable and environmentally responsible and maintains close relationships with its local communities. SolGold has engaged an increasingly skilled, refined and experienced team of geoscientists using state of the art geophysical and geochemical modelling applied to an extensive database to enable the delivery of ore grade intersections from nearly every drill hole at Alpala. SolGold has 86 geologists, of whom 30% are female, on the ground in Ecuador exploring for economic copper and gold deposits.




Have you seen the movie GOLD: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1800302/

Not saying these entities are the same, but you still need to be careful. A published PFS will mitigate investment risk, yet your margin of profit will not be as great if you wait. What is your risk appetite? That is the question here.


----------



## Trav.

Trav. said:


> Some up side for NCM ~ 8% to short term resistance and could possibly have a good week so one to watch.




Just flicking through some gold stocks and the NCM chart continues to look pretty good since my last post here 2 weeks ago. Looks like that short term resistance level will be tested in the next few days.

Not holding but good luck to those that do.


----------



## LongCU

Don’t know much about NCM’s acquisitiveness but am curious what people think of the prospect of them trying to buy the outstanding 30% of Red Chris???


----------



## Miner

LongCU said:


> Don’t know much about NCM’s acquisitiveness but am curious what people think of the prospect of them trying to buy the outstanding 30% of Red Chris???



BC is a great place and very prospective mining belt with Vancouver being the best City. Disclaimer - I have lived and worked from Vancouver in my past life.
However my concern is the team mobilised to Red Chris from includes previous GM of Telfer (also held in Cadia), very talented metallurgists from Newcrest unfortunately are not good entrepreneurs and could struggle in BC rules and regulations.  So I am a bit question mark on the success at Red Chris - stretching capability I would say. Having said that I could be biased to provide independent comments or observation. Primarily because I am also a shareholder of NCM





						Major Mines & Projects | Red Chris Mine
					

Red Chris Open Pit Mine is located 17 km SE from Iskut, British Columbia, Canada



					miningdataonline.com
				











						Red Chris
					

Newcrest’s Red Chris operations in British Columbia, Canada




					www.newcrest.com


----------



## noirua

Newcrest Mining receives Conditional Approval for TSX Listing
					

MELBOURNE, Australia, Oct. 5, 2020 /CNW/ - Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM:ASX) has received conditional approval to list on the Toronto Stock Exchang...




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com


----------



## noirua

*Newcrest Mining: Cadia expansion & Lihir recovery improvement projects approved*









						Newcrest Mining: Cadia expansion & Lihir recovery improvement projects approved
					

MELBOURNE, Australia, Oct. 9, 2020 /CNW/ - Today the Newcrest Board approved two projects moving to the Execution phase, being Stage 2 of the Cadia...




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com


----------



## Trav.

I am holding NCM as a discretionary buy, with the hope of the Gold price generating some action, which hasn't really happened (probably a good reminder to stick with the system buys) --- but anyway I am still hanging in there to see if NCM can have a little kick up.

Weekly chart below which gives me some hope that Newcrest will turn the corner and have a run at + $30


----------



## So_Cynical

Ignoring the COVID low 26 bucks is probably about where NCM starts to look like value, as always long term Gold looks good.


----------



## noirua

Newcrest Mining Signs New Compensation, Relocation and Benefits Sharing Agreements at Lihir
					

Melbourne, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 22, 2020) - Newcrest Mining Limited's (ASX: NCM) (TSX: NCM) (PNGX: NCM) wholly owned subsidiary Li...




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> Newcrest Mining Signs New Compensation, Relocation and Benefits Sharing Agreements at Lihir
> 
> 
> Melbourne, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 22, 2020) - Newcrest Mining Limited's (ASX: NCM) (TSX: NCM) (PNGX: NCM) wholly owned subsidiary Li...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.juniorminingnetwork.com



A new mob of @rseho!es must be in charge of the @rseho!e pot aka sit-down money in the green and pleasant environs of Lihir. 

Good on them for getting away with it. I do hope NCM didn't pay over the odds for the toilet paper. 

gg


----------



## noirua

John's Mining Journal: Solgold and Hummingbird - Master Investor
					

Veteran mining analyst John Cornford reviews some of the more interesting plays in the junior mining sector…




					masterinvestor.co.uk
				




Now that Solgold’s AGM has confirmed that – as suspected – major shareholder BHP has joined with Newcrest and long-standing critic Cornerstone Resources to vote their combined 36.2% against the re-election to the Board of  CEO Nick Mather, the question is _why?_


----------



## noirua

Newcrest Mining Exercises Option to move to Stage One under its farm-in agreement at Cornerstone’s Miocene gold-copper Project, Chile
					

OTTAWA, Dec. 29, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc. (“Cornerstone” or “the Company”) (TSXV:CGP) (Frankfurt:GWN) (Berlin:GW...




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com
				



OTTAWA, Dec. 29, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- *Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc. (“Cornerstone” or “the Company”) (TSXV:CGP) (Frankfurt:GWN) (Berlin:GWN) (OTC:CTNXF)* is pleased to announce that *Newcrest International Pty Limited* (“Newcrest”), a subsidiary of Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX, TSX: NCM)), having completed its initial minimum work commitment of US$1.1 million at the Miocene gold-copper project in Chile (the “Project”), has elected to exercise its option to advance to Stage 1 under the Farm-in Agreement between them dated December 7, 2018 (see Cornerstone news release dated December 10, 2018).


----------



## noirua

23 December 2020








						John's Mining Journal: Solgold and Hummingbird - Master Investor
					

Veteran mining analyst John Cornford reviews some of the more interesting plays in the junior mining sector…




					masterinvestor.co.uk


----------



## noirua

Newcrest Mining Announces Havieron Project Receives Regulatory and Funding Approval
					

Melbourne, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. - January 12, 2021) - Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) (TSX: NCM) (PNGX: NCM) is pleased to announce that t...




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com
				











						Newcrest Mining News and Stock Quote (TSX: NCM)  - Junior Mining Network
					

Real-Time News, Market Data and Stock Quote for Newcrest Mining




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com


----------



## frugal.rock

Have never really considered Newcrest.
Just having a look at the chart, solid downtrend. 
Can anyone clue me into the FA that prevails on this down trend?
One would expect a reversal at some stage, I guess, however I expect everyday is testing some resolve whilst it stays in down trend.
3 year chart.


----------



## peter2

How about the fact that the price of gold is going down. All charts of the gold producers look crap (unless you're shorting them).


----------



## So_Cynical

Inflation - perhaps this time world CB's will decide to inflate away the debt, a big inflation spike is way over due.


----------



## qldfrog

I brought ncm recently, but still too early as major fall since.
Inflation should lead to pog increase then gold miner up crazily.
But in a world where economy is gov managed and controled, it can take a while to have basic reality set in.a slow grind.
you can invest and by the time you become _right_ be already ruined :-(
So the market is always right and the market is people..you know, the ones you have to drive with, work with, listen to in public transports and elect our leader, they decide what they want to read and watch in media and on FB
If THEY are always right, what are YOUR chances?
2021 is a very bad time to be logical, scientifically knowledgeable and economically aware.
And to invest in ncm...
BTW, Newcrest is also mining mostly in a volcano..an extra factor not many seem to take into their risk mgt so dyor


----------



## Miner

qldfrog said:


> I brought ncm recently, but still too early as major fall since.
> Inflation should lead to pog increase then gold miner up crazily.
> But in a world where economy is gov managed and controled, it can take a while to have basic reality set in.a slow grind.
> you can invest and by the time you become _right_ be already ruined :-(
> So the market is always right and the market is people..you know, the ones you have to drive with, work with, listen to in public transports and elect our leader, they decide what they want to read and watch in media and on FB
> If THEY are always right, what are YOUR chances?
> 2021 is a very bad time to be logical, scientifically knowledgeable and economically aware.
> And to invest in ncm...
> BTW, Newcrest is also mining mostly in a volcano..an extra factor not many seem to take into their risk mgt so dyor



Hey mate.
Is the volcano in Australia or ?
Cheers


----------



## qldfrog

Miner said:


> Hey mate.
> Is the volcano in Australia or ?
> Cheers



PNG lihir
https://www.newcrest.com/our-assets/lihir


----------



## Miner

qldfrog said:


> PNG lihir
> https://www.newcrest.com/our-assets/lihir



thanks @qldfrog 
I knew about Lihir operation for a long time but did not know, it is a volcano. Thanks for sharing the link. Having worked in Newcrest in two occasion with a gap of 15 years , I do have some psychological road blocks but NCM share is not going any where and off late, did not read any encouraging feedback from the chart specialists.


----------



## qldfrog

Miner said:


> thanks @qldfrog
> I knew about Lihir operation for a long time but did not know, it is a volcano. Thanks for sharing the link. Having worked in Newcrest in two occasion with a gap of 15 years , I do have some psychological road blocks but NCM share is not going any where and off late, did not read any encouraging feedback from the chart specialists.



I know,my idea was well gold protection, leverage in a miner and here in oz, it is associated to NCM...
The CBA of gold miners for the Aussies average investor.
I lost money and should probably get out...which is a good time for you to buy😁 as i am a very bad discretionary investor


----------



## Miner

qldfrog said:


> I know,my idea was well gold protection, leverage in a miner and here in oz, it is associated to NCM...
> The CBA of gold miners for the Aussies average onvestor.
> I lost money and should probably get out...which is a good time for you to buy😁 as i am a very bad discretionary investor



thanks.
I share similar performance level because also seriously contemplating to unload NCM stocks.


----------



## finicky

Seems undervalued to me. I think its worth more than 2 x book value and b/v is around $16. Earnings per share and b/v have been rising in recent years, debt is modest, share issuance conservative. I've steered clear of NCM because its big cap and has involvement in New Guinea but looking briefly at it now I'd be tempted to take an initial position if I had the money. But then I am an inveterate gold optimist. The only thing wrong that I can see so far is the chart and the gold price and both of those could improve at any time now. As well, shareholders are cum an interim dividend of 19c. Always envied the low cost Cadia asset.

Surprisingly good H1:


----------



## finicky

Correction: NCM is not still due the H1 $0.19 dividend, it went ex in Feb. I think I can blame CommSec's research section for that mistake.

From announcement:
2A.5 Ex Date
Thursday February 18, 2021


----------



## So_Cynical

Miner said:


> Hey mate.
> Is the volcano in Australia or ?
> Cheers



Lihir Island
Its geologically active, MCM have a geothermal power plant there to power the mine and local village, hasn't flooded in 15 years of operation so not a super big deal, yet a real risk, Lihir is roughly half their annual production.









						Lihir Island - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Miner

So_Cynical said:


> Lihir Island
> Its geologically active, MCM have a geothermal power plant there to power the mine and local village, hasn't flooded in 15 years of operation so not a super big deal, yet a real risk, Lihir is roughly half their annual production.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lihir Island - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



Thanks SC.
Noticed NCM shares kept n moving south.
Is there something hidden giant coming market is just guessing ?


----------



## finicky

NCM @ 27.97
Some good consecutive positive volume in NCM over the last 6 weeks now. Bullish signals in the momentum indicators that are shown. Is this the bellwether gold miner for the sector?  This'd be on my shortlist for stocks that have a copper interest too.

Not held

3 Year Weekly


----------



## noirua

Greatland Gold Drilling Results at Havieron




__





						London Stock Exchange | London Stock Exchange
					

null




					www.londonstockexchange.com


----------



## Sean K

NCM was in my stable for years (along with LGL) before I went walkabout. Back interested now, mainly coinciding with my research comparing Cu/Au porphyries around the World and came across the Golden Triangle and Red Chris. This shows quite a bit of upside to me. 

Hoping they'll buy into LCL at some point.


----------



## noirua

Newcrest Mining Limited - Localised Seismic Event at Cadia - No Impact to Production Expected
					

Melbourne, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. - July 4, 2021) - Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) (TSX: NCM) (PNGX: NCM) advises that at approximately 4:0...




					www.juniorminingnetwork.com
				



Newcrest has been working with the New South Wales Government Resources Regulator and a Prohibition Notice has been established around the affected area only. A geotechnical report will be sent by Newcrest to the Regulator today for approval to commence rehabilitation activities in the affected area.


----------



## Miner

noirua said:


> Newcrest Mining Limited - Localised Seismic Event at Cadia - No Impact to Production Expected
> 
> 
> Melbourne, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. - July 4, 2021) - Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) (TSX: NCM) (PNGX: NCM) advises that at approximately 4:0...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.juniorminingnetwork.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Newcrest has been working with the New South Wales Government Resources Regulator and a Prohibition Notice has been established around the affected area only. A geotechnical report will be sent by Newcrest to the Regulator today for approval to commence rehabilitation activities in the affected area.



Hope people of Cadia and NCM investors are safe on their lives and investment. 
It will be a national loss. 
As an ex employee of Newcrest my heart is with them.


----------



## Sean K

NCM looking much like the XGD, which you'd expect. Similar resistance line, bounce, and hitting the neck of the H&S, target as shown. If the move up continues then I'm expecting the longer term flag on POG to break to the upside.


----------



## Sean K

I was questioning where NCM was going to get their growth from with Wafi Golpu on the nose due to PNG politics, and here you have it. But they won't stop here I think. Tacking on DEG will add another 500k pa in the future.


----------



## Sean K

Interesting this was sold off quite a bit this morning. More than expected. Maybe the 25% premium was the issue. Not sure how the sp of the target has been trotting the past 12 months but most PMs are well down, so it's not like they might have bought this at the top? In fact, they might be picking it up at a time when POG breaks out and it'll look opportunistic. Good recovery through the day. Perhaps some instos had time to review and thought it was a good deal.


----------



## rederob

NCM has bumped along the bottom of its long term trend channel for 7 years and really should have done a lot better given its annual gold output.
But like most miner, it's always pointing to better years ahead.
Only problem is that gold can be really fickle, so unless you are a very active trader, investors need to hold this one for a decade to get any semblance of a decent return.  And even then, it's a matter of buying at cyclical lows.




Despite previous cyclical trends suggesting an inflation "bounce" should have happened, POG has hovered plus or minus $130 off its current price ($1820) for the past year.  POG's chart pattern is presently in a wedge formation and I'm going to tip it breaks to the upside on the basis of a gold coin toss I ran.  This seems a very reliable strategy with a 50% chance of success, and I recall being told that 50% was a pass, so I am running with it.


----------



## rederob

Unfortunately I was blocked from seeing or posting to all threads by @DrBourse so will reply here on NCM.
@DrBourse used multiple technical indicators to show a trading style, so I thought I would show a simpler way to get a similar result.




In the above, TSI crossing are confirmations of a previous buy or sell, which is made at an inflection. In this chart there are only 3 inflections in the buying zone so clearly it's going to be matched by 3 sales at inflections above the buying zone.
I'm not advocating this as a trading method, but it is very simple and picks up the larger movements in price by using clear pivot points.
What I was unable to work out from @DrBourse's thread was why he used a daily chart when an hourly chart seemed to give a better picture of short term trends.  The other point, of course, is that NCM is heavily influenced by the gold price, and because POG is trading 24/7, NCM's opening price each day will have been affected by how POG moved in the preceding 18 hours.


----------



## Sean K

NCM has been in the toilet since gold started going sideways in Aug 20. Looks like it's been punished more than the comparative slide in POG. Perhaps there have been question marks regarding their future production with mines coming off highs, but they look like they'll replace a lot of that with Havieron, Red Chris and Pretium. They're still scheduled to decline in production around 2029 though. Need some good exploration success or a bolt on like DEG that would replace all those ounces and more. Potential double bottom down there.


----------



## DrBourse

Hi rederob.
You posted the following on 7/1/22 where you asked "*Why he (DrB) used a Daily Chart when an hourly chart seemed to give a better picture of short term trends*", Not sure why you would think that I don't use shorter term charts, everybody uses shorter term charts, that's just part of the Basic TA Training.





Well M8, I answered your question 2 days before you asked it, see my post (below) dated 5/1/22.





Now you can see some of what you are missing out on.
had you not been so agressive you may still be in the loop, and maybe you would learn some alternative approaches that may help your current trading practices.

TRUCE - behave yourself and maybe I could hit the "unignore" button.

Cheers,
DrB


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

NCM is the main laggard in my Gold portfolio.

Its completed acquisition of the Canadian Pretium will add much value with a long life asset close to an existing NCM owned mine making the composition of its portfolio of mines less Fuzzy.

Patience. 

gg


----------



## Miner

Garpal Gumnut said:


> NCM is the main laggard in my Gold portfolio.
> 
> Its completed acquisition of the Canadian Pretium will add much value with a long life asset close to an existing NCM owned mine making the composition of its portfolio of mines less Fuzzy.
> 
> Patience.
> 
> gg



Yes. Patience. Sandeep Biswas plays his cards astutely. 
Don't hold any more however but will return. 
Canadian venture could turnaround.


----------



## Sean K

Miner said:


> I was over optimistic and wrong on NCM to deliver performance.
> After seeing the Financials and CAPEX commitment  published today, I am damn scared to see market reaction.
> If there was no reaction and market already factored it as it was for EVN, and no change in leadership team ( one already left few months back) then I should keep my mouth shut.




I couldn't even find their AISC in the presentation. Just AISC margin at $502/oz. I assume that means if they were selling gold at $2500 their ASIC is $2000? These guys should be smashing it with AUD POG at recent prices.


----------



## Miner

Sean K said:


> I couldn't even find their AISC in the presentation. Just AISC margin at $502/oz. I assume that means if they were selling gold at $2500 their ASIC is $2000? These guys should be smashing it with AUD POG at recent prices.



I was so disappointed to admit my err in reliance on NCM, I deleted my post.
Yes AISC on the table published far down of the announcement result. 
The cash flow is low profit but price rose.
I could not believe .


----------



## Sean K

Miner said:


> I was so disappointed to admit my err in reliance on NCM, I deleted my post.
> Yes AISC on the table published far down of the announcement result.
> The cash flow is low profit but price rose.
> I could not believe .




It's done an EVN. 

I only looked at the presentation so missed the AISC. They're claiming group AISC of USD $1,194 or AUD $1662. 

It's not a great sign when all the numbers on the right hand side of the financials are in brackets.


----------



## Miner

Sean K said:


> It's done an EVN.
> 
> I only looked at the presentation so missed the AISC. They're claiming group AISC of USD $1,194 or AUD $1662.
> 
> It's not a great sign when all the numbers on the right hand side of the financials are in brackets.
> 
> View attachment 137668



I saw brackets in red colour too.


----------



## Miner

Sharing two articles from AFR - shows success leading to arrogance leads to fall - pride must have fallen.








						‘I’m sorry’: Newcrest CEO apologises for autocratic leadership
					

Sandeep Biswas is trying to build a more inclusive culture after a ‘cold shower’ of feedback, he tells The Australian Financial Review.




					www.afr.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Miner said:


> Sharing two articles from AFR - shows success leading to arrogance leads to fall - pride must have fallen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘I’m sorry’: Newcrest CEO apologises for autocratic leadership
> 
> 
> Sandeep Biswas is trying to build a more inclusive culture after a ‘cold shower’ of feedback, he tells The Australian Financial Review.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afr.com



To be fair to Sandeep Biswas, he has not been running an antiquarian bookshop where the worst that can happen is some old fart having a heart attack. 

Some of the stories I have heard from powder monkeys of locals in PNG getting too close to becoming part of the tonnage are frightening. 

Command and control seems to have taken a back seat to political correctness. 

One can have good manners in a CAC environment. 

Perhaps the ole Sandeep needed a Miss Manners immersion. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> To be fair to Sandeep Biswas, he has not been running an antiquarian bookshop where the worst that can happen is some old fart having a heart attack.
> 
> Some of the stories I have heard from powder monkeys of locals in PNG getting too close to becoming part of the tonnage are frightening.
> 
> Command and control seems to have taken a back seat to political correctness.
> 
> One can have good manners in a CAC environment.
> 
> Perhaps the ole Sandeep needed a Miss Manners immersion.
> 
> gg



I’m surprised Lihir has been going as well as it has. They’re only one decent seismic event away from disaster.


----------



## Sean K

I'm overweight on gold (for a purpose) but if I was going to add NCM, it looks like it's breaking through a pretty significant resistance zone.


----------



## finicky

*were


----------



## Sean K

finicky said:


> *were




Clearly broken out now.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Clearly broken out now.
> 
> View attachment 138680



The acquisition of Canadian Pretivm is cream on the cake for NCM and is now being digested by the market with the increase in POG. 

I expect more long term reserves to be added.

gg


----------



## rederob

With POG heading decisively towards $2000 again, our big gold miners are in for bumper profits as we head towards the end of the financial year.
NCM has not been an investor favourite for the past 18 months, as shown below.  I hope that changes.


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## Sean K

Curious that NCM didn't release a more detailed report on the Havieron upgrade by Greatland Gold and just this note that was not marked market sensitive. It seems like they don't want the punters to know how big that deposit is getting? Greatland announced a 2.1Moz AuEq increase! NCM have 70% of the JV...


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## noirua

*/
Greatland Gold LSE AIM: GGPare partners with Newcrest in Havieron - streamed on 5 June 2022.


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## noirua

Havieron gets deeper and deeper
					

Newcrest Mining and Greatland Gold continue to enhance their Havieron gold project, with fresh drill results further deepening the resource.




					www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au


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## Sean K

You don't see intersections like those at Brucejack very often. Maybe they forgot a decimal between the grades?


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## Sean K

Even though they've given a brief explanation, I still don't get how you have a negative AISC?


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## Sean K

NCM paused on some long term support. The gold sector has been in the toilet this year. Time to go contrarian. This has been sold off so much perhaps one of the giants will take interest, BHP-OZL style.


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## Sean K

I’m not sure why Twiggy is chasing gold, it doesn’t really fit his investment profile. Maybe Greatland have other land prospective for copper and nickel…

Makes things a little more complicated for NCM with Havieron but not much. Will still replace feed at the Telfer mill.

I wonder if they’ll regret not picking up the extra 5% when on offer.


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## Miner

Just read. Is it an outdated story








						Gold mine expansion on hold after vent shaft emits 18 times the regulatory limit of carcinogen
					

Newcrest's Cadia Valley Operations near Orange will have its expansion approval put on hold after failing to meet a key condition of its production increase.




					www.abc.net.au


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## noirua




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## noirua

Information on Patterson Oregon that is similar to Haveiron. Roughly 25 minutes in and more particular information on Haveiron.


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## Miner

Sean K said:


> I’m not sure why Twiggy is chasing gold, it doesn’t really fit his investment profile. Maybe Greatland have other land prospective for copper and nickel…
> 
> Makes things a little more complicated for NCM with Havieron but not much. Will still replace feed at the Telfer mill.
> 
> I wonder if they’ll regret not picking up the extra 5% when on offer.
> 
> View attachment 146748



Reviewing old postings.
@Sean K 
You mentioned gold was not Twiggy's strong area. 
But he bought RMWilliams and cattle farm too. Vertical integration.
Green Energy and Future Energy. 
Twiggy is a charisma in turning dirt into gold - paydirt.


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## Sean K

Miner said:


> Reviewing old postings.
> @Sean K
> You mentioned gold was not Twiggy's strong area.
> But he bought RMWilliams and cattle farm too. Vertical integration.
> Green Energy and Future Energy.
> Twiggy is a charisma in turning dirt into gold - paydirt.




Yes, seems to be venturing into all sorts. Gina is also. I suppose you have to do something with a few lazy billion laying about in the piggy bank apart from saving the planet and sponsoring netball teams and the like.


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## Sean K

noirua said:


>





I don't get it, Greatland have already done a couple of MREs for Haveiron, what's he mean by 'maiden MRE'.  Is that an old report?

From their 22 Annual Report.


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## noirua

Live chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L^GGP&p=7&t=1


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## Sean K

noirua said:


> Live chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L^GGP&p=7&t=1





I liked the first question. 'WTF is going on with value for shareholders and our SP'. Had a look at the chart and  😲

NCM should just take this out while they can and before Twigger gets his mitts on any more.


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## rcw1

Good morning
rcw1 is participating in the *Unofficial* Full CY 2023 Stock Tipping Competition ... NCM is the third stock of the four chosen.

Why so:

An interesting beast is the gold and copper explorer and miner, NCM.  Made rcw1 angry on a couple of occasions past couple years.  
However, believe this company is best placed to pocket coin with good gold and copper prices during the 2023 calendar year, moreover, has an ability to raise export volumes to outweigh lower prices.  Plenty of opportunity for SP to move back towards that $30 mark.
Assumptions only.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## brerwallabi

One of my picks too in the 2023 tipping comp.
I believe this year might be the one where we see gold consistently over US$2k.
NCM will be my banker in the comp I hope to see it provide at least a 50% gain.


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## Telamelo

I also picked NCM in 2023 cy tipping comp. since am bullish on Gold/Copper  (plenty of news flow/catalyst's expected in 2023)









						Welcome
					

Newcrest’s homepage




					www.newcrest.com


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