# Where is the bottom?



## megla (16 August 2007)

I reckon that it'll be around 5558. Why? - Just gut or blind hope 

There is still lots of money out there waiting to be invested, so the market has to bounce bank ... doesn't it?

This reminds me of the '87 crash. Hell, I had only just got in, and lost the lot! And I only just got back in 18 months ago


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## Young Gun (16 August 2007)

Ok, the sharmarket it almost at 5,500 how ca 5,800 be the bottom? Personally I think the market will touch 5,400, then jump up and down sidetracking this value for sometime..


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## the barry (16 August 2007)

I think america has a lot more negative suprises in store. This is really going to get very ugly. The whole rams scenario today has shown that the trickle on effect of the american sub prime market is well and truely in effect. It is only going to take one more negative announcement and god knows where the bottom will be. Panic has well and truely set in, this is going to take a long time to reverse.


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## The Mint Man (16 August 2007)

I said around 5800 a few weeks ago, obviously its past that so I wouldnt expect much more.
Good buying opps ATM.

Cheers


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## megla (16 August 2007)

Young Gun said:


> Ok, the sharmarket it almost at 5,500 how ca 5,800 be the bottom? Personally I think the market will touch 5,400, then jump up and down sidetracking this value for sometime..




Jeez. Started typing, walked away... looked at my shares, came back, pressed post and What the!


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## SGB (16 August 2007)

Either way guys,
No matter how tough this is at the moment what a fantastic learning experience this is for everyone. Who ever has not taken part in any of the other crashes this is an opportunity to really re evaluate trading styles and trading systems, whether you’re a fundamentalist or a technical trader/investor. 
The experience is priceless.

SGB


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## resourcesman (16 August 2007)

experience is priceless eh? for some, theres gonna be a price alright... half our invested assets


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## SGB (16 August 2007)

resourcesman said:


> experience is priceless eh? for some, theres gonna be a price alright... half our invested assets




Hello resoursesmen,

sorry to hit a nerve.

One Question

Why do you presume we should always be good judges at our investments and always have to make the right investment choices?

History tells us it will return. How long.... nobody knows this. It took 9 years after the 87 crash but eventually come back and we all got to make money.
IMO, Now is the time to look for opportunities.

Regards
SGB


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## tcoates (16 August 2007)

I dont think anyone knows the real bottom - except people have points where certain events might occur (eg Fibonacci levels). It seems to be a snowball at the moment - getting bigger and bigger. People told not to invest (buy) at the moment. So who to sell to? 

It would also be compounded by margin calls, people not getting through to the (online) brokers and the problem gets worse.

Seems to be a catch 22 there?!? (want to sell, nobody to buy, ummm... need the money for margin!)

Somebody in the XAO thread said to sit back with the popcorn and watch it descend to 5500. And with the present fear in the market place (bit like a fire in a room with one door that you cant open)

Tim

PS. with my own clumsy analysis i had guessed 5600 (wedge pattern) but did not believe it but could/has gone further.


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## resourcesman (16 August 2007)

nah, im fine... it was just a bad joke on my part :


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## Frogstomp (16 August 2007)

uh oh, I think I hear the margin man creeping around the side entrance.  To sell stock, or inject cash - Anyone else in the same boat ??


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## ozambersand (16 August 2007)

Hey, I thought when they talked about a 10% correction, they meant 10% from the high, not 10% in one day!   

Not good.


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## the barry (16 August 2007)

Dow futures well down as well, going to be another blood bath on wall street. This is going to get sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ugly tomorrow. Once the margin calls start getting triggered, if they haven't already it is going to cause a multiplier affect.


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## Pager (16 August 2007)

Well the ASX 200 has just put on nearly 100 points in about 10 mins and since the sharp sell off, maybe the buyers have found favour.


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## eMark (16 August 2007)

SGB said:


> Either way guys,
> No matter how tough this is at the moment what a fantastic learning experience this is for everyone. Who ever has not taken part in any of the other crashes this is an opportunity to really re evaluate trading styles and trading systems, whether you’re a fundamentalist or a technical trader/investor.
> The experience is priceless.
> 
> SGB




Well I for one am massively in the RED. I should be angry, upset and all the other emotions that come from this type of scenario. I have a LOT of money invested in the market (too much), but somehow I feel good.

About 2 weeks ago, I stopped trading altogether. After making stupid mistake after stupid mistake, I was getting nowehere. Fortunately for me, I did stop, and have saved myself a lot of further heartache with where the markets have gone. That's not to day my original stocks haven't fallen furtther....they have. But I haven't added to the pain by continuing to catch falling knives.

I agree 100% with SGB. This experience is priceless. I have a list of trading techniques and styles (obvious mistakes) written down on papaer that I will never employ again. Just watching over the last 2 weeks has taught me so much about what NOT to do, and how the markets work. 

My PLAN at the moment is NOT to sell my stocks for further losses, because invariably they will come back, be it 2 weeks or 2 years. 

Just sit back and learn!


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## Sprinter79 (16 August 2007)

megla said:


> Where is the bottom?




In my pants 












C'mon, someone had to say it


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## Porper (16 August 2007)

the barry said:


> Dow futures well down as well, going to be another blood bath on wall street. This is going to get sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ugly tomorrow. Once the margin calls start getting triggered, if they haven't already it is going to cause a multiplier affect.




I think everybody needs to have another look at where we are  here.There hasn't been a bloodbath yet, we are a few percent down.

We are actually still higher now than we were at the beginning of the year.

If it goes pear shaped, you ain't seen nothing yet.

On the other side of the coin, after todays effort we could be at new highs by the end of the year


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## Pommiegranite (16 August 2007)

Porper said:


> I think everybody needs to have another look at where we are here.There hasn't been a bloodbath yet, we are a few percent down.
> 
> We are actually still higher now than we were at the beginning of the year.
> 
> ...




Many people on ASF invest in spec stocks. There certainly has been a bloodbath there!!


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## wintermute (17 August 2007)

I reckon 5400, that'll touch the long term lower trend line. but that's just my speculation (and probably dodgy chart reading)  only 100 points to go based on yesterdays plummet  

Tony.


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## Santoro (17 August 2007)

Sprinter79 said:


> In my pants
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeah, nice one. Does it have any numbers on it?


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## ta2693 (17 August 2007)

That is the bottom. 
5700. My reasons 
1 smart money are in, according to trading behavior in Dow and ASX's last hour trading.
2 historically speaking, 20% drop is the most in ASX.
3 equity is still cheap. low P/E ratio. 
4 sub prime mortgage is not a real issue in Australia
5 Sub prime mortgage problem in US became clear 1week is long enough for market to absorb this information.


We are going to have a good Friday this week and recover from here. if it is down so much like yesterday, I will add 10% of my holding in value shares.


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## Sprinter79 (17 August 2007)

Santoro said:


> Yeah, nice one. Does it have any numbers on it?




Yeah, it says something like 85-90 :


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## Buffettology (17 August 2007)

Probably 5400, 5500 will act as some kind of phsycological resistance point!  Might go slightly below 5500 and then the big money will come in for the bargains!


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## Flying Fish (17 August 2007)

Buffettology said:


> Probably 5400, 5500 will act as some kind of phsycological resistance point!  Might go slightly below 5500 and then the big money will come in for the bargains!




lol what bargains? What was it two or three years ago? Do you honestly believe the market just keeps going up and up? I can remember when the asx was around 3000 and that was not all that long ago.
You thought the twin towers was a collapse, just watch the house of cards crumble.


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## prawn_86 (17 August 2007)

Flying Fish said:


> lol what bargains? What was it two or three years ago? Do you honestly believe the market just keeps going up and up?




look at all the historical data and since any western market has been created it has continued to move up over the long term.


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## numbercruncher (17 August 2007)

4500 - next month


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## Flying Fish (17 August 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> look at all the historical data and since any western market has been created it has continued to move up over the long term.




Of course over decades, not months or years,


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## springhill (17 August 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> 4500 - next month




I sincerely hope ur wrong numbercruncher but some backup for the 4500 would be great instead of just posting a number on the screen. Cheers


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## Smurf1976 (17 August 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> look at all the historical data and since any western market has been created it has continued to move up over the long term.



Long term can, however, be _very_ long.

Look at the historic periods where financial assets, particularly stocks and also real estate, have remained well below peak values in terms of their purchasing power. There's no guarantee that won't happen again.

Personally however I'm expecting major world stock markets to be very much higher _in nominal terms_ in 3 years time than they are now. I'm not at all confident that the index will produce a positive return in _real_ terms however. The basis of my expectations comes back to central banks and their likely response to the current situation which is, of course, more inflation.


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## Flying Fish (17 August 2007)

springhill said:


> I sincerely hope ur wrong numbercruncher but some backup for the 4500 would be great instead of just posting a number on the screen. Cheers




What plausible reason is there for the ASX to remain at this current leveL? Any educated opinions please?


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## wintermute (18 August 2007)

Whilst I think that the speculative end of the market has been grossly overheated, and rediculous prices have been paid for some stocks, I don't think that these are representitive of the market as a whole.  

As far as I am aware, the market currently is at historically low p/e levels, the economy is in pretty good shape (mainly due to the mining boom) and most importantly, a correction of this magnitude will allay a lot of peoples concerns that the market was getting overheated.

I've been saying for a while That I reckon we are going to have a crash, but I don't believe this is the start of it.  Though we have seen the some warning signs of a bubble in the spec end of the market, we haven't yet seen it spread to the market in general, or an exhaustion peak. 

My tip is that this is the last correction we get before the market goes into a euphoric buying frenzie, culminating in an 87 style crash.  But we need to see the XAO go exponential before that happens IMO. 

That's my  worth anyway 

Tony.


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## Julia (18 August 2007)

SGB said:


> Either way guys,
> No matter how tough this is at the moment what a fantastic learning experience this is for everyone. Who ever has not taken part in any of the other crashes this is an opportunity to really re evaluate trading styles and trading systems, whether you’re a fundamentalist or a technical trader/investor.
> The experience is priceless.
> 
> SGB



This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!


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## insider (18 August 2007)

Julia said:


> This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!




nothing like it...


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## insider (18 August 2007)

People don't appreciate what they have until it's gone... To me the 4 year Bull run is over and gone (side ways is not a bull run either) and people miss it... You only miss something if you love it...


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## SGB (27 August 2007)

Julia said:


> This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!




Hello Julia

I haven't been rapped so I could not tell you how this could build up my character, but i have lost money in a trade before so I now know not to walk down that dark alley again.

Think about it

Regards
SGB


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## Julia (27 August 2007)

SGB and Insider

You are both missing my point entirely.  Can't be bothered trying to explain.


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## chops_a_must (27 August 2007)

Julia said:


> This is a bit like telling someone who has been raped that the experience is character building!




Personalising what the markets do is not healthy. In fact, it is exactly the opposite of what one should do...


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