# IAG - Insurance Australia Group



## slimtrader (11 January 2006)

looks like IAG breaking through 200d EMA and short term resistance. could 580 and then 600 be on the cards?


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## Bobby (12 January 2006)

*Re: IAG going through 200d EMA*

Yep,
Sure looks good as I hold a heap , when they were on the way down recently I almost JUMPED, but now feel ok !.
This is one stock I can't  stick a stop loss on, lucky I did'nt.  

Bob.


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## michael_selway (12 January 2006)

*Re: IAG going through 200d EMA*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> Yep,
> Sure looks good as I hold a heap , when they were on the way down recently I almost JUMPED, but now feel ok !.
> This is one stock I can't  stick a stop loss on, lucky I did'nt.
> 
> Bob.




Im still curious why it rebounded so quick? no news? forecasts are still bad?


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## Bobby (12 January 2006)

*Re: IAG going through 200d EMA*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Im still curious why it rebounded so quick? no news? forecasts are still bad?



 Yes thats got me wondering too.  
 Cheers Bob


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## RichKid (3 April 2006)

A great article from the Australian on IAG and the Insurance market, well worth a read imo.

Heat on IAG to outgrow risk- Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian  April 01, 2006


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## RichKid (10 May 2006)

Looks like IAG will pay two fully franked div's within a few months, must have changed the normal cycle dates, I thought the next one wasn't to be til September. Must be new reporting periods or something like that as I doubt there'l be 3 div payments in one calendar year, doesn't look to be a special div:

Ex Div date----     Pay Date----        Amount
18 May 06----  	26 Jun 06-----  	12.50 cents  		
02 Mar 06----- 	10 Apr 06----- 	13.50 cents


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## RichKid (10 May 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Looks like IAG will pay two fully franked div's within a few months, must have changed the normal cycle dates, ............ doesn't look to be a special div:




Looks like I guessed wrong, didn't even recall seeing this annct, it is a special dividend: 


> 12 April 2006
> 
> ABN 60 090 739 923
> 388 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia iag.com.au
> ...


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## Julia (10 May 2006)

*Re: IAG going through 200d EMA*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> Yep,
> Sure looks good as I hold a heap , when they were on the way down recently I almost JUMPED, but now feel ok !.
> This is one stock I can't  stick a stop loss on, lucky I did'nt.
> 
> Bob.




Hi 'Bob

Why is it you can't put a stop loss on IAG?

Julia


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## Bobby (11 May 2006)

*Re: IAG going through 200d EMA*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Hi 'Bob
> 
> Why is it you can't put a stop loss on IAG?
> 
> Julia




Hullo Julia,

I use mental stops, because I'm undisciplined  : 
But I do use them when intuition clicks in.

There is a most foul feeling to see a stock reach down to hit your stop & take you out, only to immediately rise again.

Bob.


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## Dutchy3 (18 September 2006)

Thought this one needed a bit of a plug.

I'm not convinced the XJO can rally from where it is .... however in regards to this stock I do see some potential brewing.
As usual the participants for the last year have made $ by writing options each side of the price. Still I do think at this stage a LONG position may present itself if a BIG WHITE can take out my red overhead resistance line


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## mime (25 September 2006)

What are your opinions on this stock? Its high dividend caught my eye. Does anyone think they can keep paying that kind of dividend?


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## Bobby (25 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> What are your opinions on this stock? Its high dividend caught my eye. Does anyone think they can keep paying that kind of dividend?



Yep I think so, just look at the margin % thats offered on IAG !   

Bob.


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## mime (25 September 2006)

Bobby please explain


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## Bobby (25 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> Bobby please explain



The big Guys will lend you around 90% to your 10% to buy this stock, therefore they must have great faith that IAG is a solid investment   

Bob.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (25 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> What are your opinions on this stock? Its high dividend caught my eye. Does anyone think they can keep paying that kind of dividend?




Smart Investor magazine dated October  2006 go to  article  Ripe  with Cash p.27 > 32 .The reporter Helena Keers exposes what she thinks ,will be top yeilds of the future .I personally have not read the article so don't 'flame me' for telling you so.
Lastly Huntley's tip for Stock of the Week was IAG ......sorry did not read into topic as I have Promina (PMN) in my portfolio.


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## mime (25 September 2006)

I think telstra has the highest margin bracket too. Does that mean it's a gun stock?


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## Bobby (25 September 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> I think telstra has the highest margin bracket too. Does that mean it's a gun stock?



You now seem to know whats going on ?

Whats your advice on Telstra ""


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## mime (26 September 2006)

No I was making a querry about your advice.


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## bigdog (12 October 2006)

My money is on QBE bidding control for IAG

IAG has been noted as take over target in recent newspaper articles

It had been pleasing to see the increase in IAG SP

Go QBE

TheAge today

Promina confirms Suncorp bid
Email Print Normal font Large font October 12, 2006 - 4:59PM

Diversified financial group Suncorp-Metway looks set to secure one of the largest takeovers in Australian corporate history with its $7.9 billion bid for general insurer Promina Group.

The board of Promina - which owns brands such as AAMI and Australian Pensioners Insurance Agency - said it was ''favourably disposed'' to the conditional offer.

Brisbane-based bank, insurance and wealth management group Suncorp has offered 0.2618 of its shares and $1.80 cash per Promina share, valuing Promina at $7.87 billion.

The news pushed Promina shares into new record territory, with the stock jumping almost 19 per cent to an intraday high of $7.70.

The shares ended up 82 cents or 12.7 per cent at $7.30 as Suncorp lost 10 cents to $22.20.

If approved, it will be the largest takeover in the financial services sector since Commonwealth Bank's $9.1 billion purchase of Colonial Ltd in 2000.

Outside of that sector, the size of the deal compares with BHP Billiton's $9.2 billion buyout of WMC Resources in 2005.

Both insurers remained tight-lipped about the deal today short of issuing statements confirming the bid, after market speculation about a possible takeover pushed Promina shares more than six per cent higher yesterday.

Suncorp says the merger gives it an expanded national presence, improved geographic diversity and a significant boost to its presence in the wealth management and life insurance markets.

''The proposal is in line with its strategy to pursue value accretive acquisitions which meet its investment criteria, create value for shareholders and enhance earnings per share,'' Suncorp said in a statement.

The offer brings a sense of confirmation to months of speculation about a round of consolidation among Australia's top four insurers.

However, Suncorp itself was considered one of the more likely takeover targets.

With Promina eager to move ahead with the merger, the companies are progressing with due diligence and negotiations for a formal merger agreement.

But approval from Australian and New Zealand regulators could still remain potential barriers to the acquisition.

CommSec analyst Carlos Castillo said there were unlikely to be many rival bids emerging from the woodwork with competition constraints likely to keep most players at bay.

''This has been something that's been in the pipeline for quite a while,'' he said.

''It's (the market) obviously not factoring anyone else coming in and making a bigger offer and trumping Suncorp.

''I think that's pretty unlikely because Suncorp is the one that can extract the most synergies out of an acquisition of Promina.

''Any other potential bidders, if they want to pay more, then they're really going to be doing so for strategic reasons not because they feel they can get more value out of the acquisition than Suncorp.''

The move will have ramifications for the broader financial sector with Insurance Australia Group (IAG) - Australia's second largest insurer by earned premium behind QBE - standing to benefit from the transaction.

''If this takeover goes ahead then it's hard to see anyone being able to buy IAG without further competition concerns being raised unless they're an offshore person who has no participation in the market at the moment,'' Mr Castillo said.

Deutsche Bank analyst James Coghill said the disruption a merger was likely to cause Promina and Suncorp would improve IAG's attractiveness in the medium-term.

''In terms of alternative bids, we see limited scope given competition constraints for IAG, and lower synergy potential from QBE, Wesfarmers and Allianz,'' Mr Coghill said.

''Furthermore, both QBE and Allianz have the ability to acquire offshore at more attractive multiples.''

Bank of Queensland managing director David Liddy said the merger was good news for his bank.

''It's a positive from our point of view, we stick to the view that we are a bank and what we are trying to do is get more Bank of Queensland customers in Queensland,'' he said.

Mr Liddy said the regional bank performed well after Suncorp's $1.26 billion acquisition of general insurance business GIO from AMP in 2001.

AAP


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## bigdog (13 October 2006)

The Age today included sentence:

Rumours of a merger to come between IAG and QBE, or a potential takeover of Suncorp by Westpac, were rife. IAG climbed 2.7 per cent to $5.75 while QBE slid 20 ¢ to $24.70.

Article heading covered:
PROMINA'S likely acceptance of an $8 billion takeover bid from Queensland's Suncorp-Metway will create a merged entity to rival the size of St George Bank and may set off a round of consolidation in the financial services industry.

Takeover to create $20bn finance giant
Marc Moncrief
October 13, 2006


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## bigdog (13 October 2006)

SMH today included below under heading:
Tables may turn on Suncorp
Jessica Irvine
October 13, 2006

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/tables-may-turn-on-suncorp/2006/10/12/1160246260379.html

Insurance takeover fever also sparked a rally in IAG shares on speculation QBE could seize the chance to make a bid for the nation's biggest general insurer.

"The general feeling is that QBE will have to move quickly now," Aequs Securities institutional dealer Ric Klusman said.

IAG shares jumped 7 per cent to a year high, before closing 3 per cent up for the day at $5.75.


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## Dutchy3 (13 October 2006)

Ok .... so following on from my post a month ago this one pokes its nose up. Bit sad with the selling at the end of this week yet on the whole worth a plug. Perhaps a half or third size position to start with as it could of done better on the close


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## bigdog (16 October 2006)

Australian on Saturday

M&A the only way ahead in insurance
The most surprising aspect of Suncorp's $7.9 billion bid is that it didn't come sooner, write Tim Boreham and Tim Blue

October 14, 2006
SUNCORP Metway's conditional merger approach to Promina may have been unsolicited, but hostile it was not.

It's one factor for the ACCC to consider. The more seminal one is whether the regulator adopts a national or state-based market definition. 

Currently, IAG holds more than 40 per cent of its (home) NSW market in car insurance. 

As a result, NSW and Queensland (where Suncorp has a natural bias) emerge as key regulatory stumbling blocks. 

Fitzgerald notes the ACCC generally took a state-based approach to previous insurance mergers, notably IAG's purchase of CGU in 2002 and Suncorp's purchase of GIO from the AMP in 2003. 

"If this turns out to be the case once more, we would expect the ACCC to oppose the deal," Fitzgerald says. 

While there are arguments in both directions, ABN AMRO's analysts are more confident than not the ACCC will pass the deal. 

The firm notes that in the case of the IAG-CGU merger, concentration thresholds were breached in some regions, but the regulator focused on aggregate shares across the national market. 

Should the merger eventuate, the repercussions will be felt across the sector but it's not clear what the end results would be. 

IAG could benefit from Suncorp-Promina's merger distractions or, conversely, be faced with a gorilla with an equal share of the national market. 

Some observers think IAG is now more likely to be taken over, even though two mergers would raise serious regulatory barriers. 

Suncorp itself might be raided in a pre-emptive strike by an institution such as Westpac. 

Whatever the case, says KPMG's Terblanche, all insurers need to think long and hard about growing in a sector which, unlike its product proposition, offers little security and peace of mind. "I would expect boards of all insurers to ask some very hard questions about how they are going to respond in this changing landscape," he says.


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## Dutchy3 (1 November 2006)

This is a reasonably safe buy now. Tried to breakout and failed yet plenty of support below the market not going to see 5.40 again before 6.00 +


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## marklar (10 November 2006)

I'm holding a large percentage of my portfolio as IAG, it's not done too bad so far, but I'm starting to get a little nervous.  Share price seems to be hovering since it was bumped up on takeover rumour that hasn't eventuated (yet).

m.


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## bigdog (13 November 2006)

Great article on IAG today 

IAG AGM This Week November 13 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4668&setSub=1

Article included:
Brokers Goldman Sachs JB Were see IAG's prospects on the up according to a note to clients on Friday.

The brokers upgraded IAG from "underperform" to "marketperform" on the expectation of improved newsflow in the near-to-medium term.

"The company has indicated that its personal lines market share has begun to recover and that it may be in a position to provide some evidence of this at its AGM." 

"A Strategy Briefingnext week (Wed, 22 Nov) initiated by the company with the goal, we assume, of getting back on the frontfoot (after having taken a PR/newsflow battering for some time). We are not banking on (new) positive news, but it should give an 'unloved' company the chance to promote its strengths/opportunities.

"China deal due for completion ("by November"): While the market will continue to debate the pros and cons of the China Pacific deal, it seems unlikely that the initial announcement will be taken badly – because the price range has already been announced and management has stated that any deals it does will need to be accretive (on an EPS basis and relative to its WACC) by year 2."

"IAG likely to benefit from the SUN/PMN deal: If SUN’s proposed takeover of PMN proceeds, we believe this would be a clear at-the margin plus for IAG – because it would improve IAG's medium-term revenue growth opportunities and be good for industry structure," said GSJBW."

But GSJBW outlined some telling points against getting too enthused about IAG.

It pointed out that "We are still not enthused with the valuation equation; (2) We still believe there is downside risk to the group’s dividend payout ratio over the medium-to-longer term; (3) Commercial lines pricing is unlikely to reach a floor (let alone bounce) for some time; (4) While IAG’s personal lines momentum is picking up, its financial results are likely to continue lagging its peers for at least one more reporting season; and (5) If the SUN/PMN deal does not proceed, the market may "take something out" of the IAG price to reflect this." 

IAG's 2006 profit wasn't one to write home about. 

It earned $759 million after tax, down on the $781 million earned in 2005, its insurance margin was 14.4 per cent compared to 2005's 15.5 per cent and it resorted to that hoary old tactic of sticking up dividends to keep shareholders sweet when the earnings picture wasn't all that flash.

"The Group also declared its highest ever final dividend of 16 cents per share and, following renewed momentum in the second half, expects gross written premium (GWP) to increase 5-10% in the full year ended 30 June 2007," the company said in its profit announcement.

Shareholders will be looking for confirmation that the profit guidance will be met, at least in the first half, and some idea of how the company will lift performance in 2007.


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## bigdog (4 December 2006)

Trading Halt for IAG ASX ANN today pending release of ANN

Are there any rumours or knowledge of what is to be ANN?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00674591


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## bigdog (4 December 2006)

ANN IAG Acquires Equity Insurance Group UK
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00674620

Analyst Presentation Equity Insurance Group
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00674623

Which way will SP jump?


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## Buster (6 December 2006)

Hey Bigdog



			
				bigdog said:
			
		

> ANN IAG Acquires Equity Insurance Group UK
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00674620
> 
> Analyst Presentation Equity Insurance Group
> ...



Thankfully the way I expected.. I just may be getting a handle on this stuff..   

I'm no expert by any strech of the imagination, but I think that the SP reaction may be a little over the mark.. I mean only a couple of months ago analysts were bagging the stock for over extending itself.. then we we this SP movement when they spend even more??

I hold (and will do so for the long term) so am more than happy, but personally feel that this move is a little over zealous.. will probably move back to the 5.87 mark..

Opinions??

Regards,

Buster.


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## Buster (10 December 2006)

G'Day Fellow ASF'ers,



> Punters like IAG's foray into UK
> December 7, 2006
> 
> The shares re-opened with a roar and a placement was lapped up quicksmart.
> ...



The Insto's bought up big in the 5.10 - 5.50 range.. Why then does the Share Price not fall back to those levels??

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that they haven't, it's just that it doesn't make a lot of sense to me..

Should I be selling all my shares now at around the $6 mark and buy back into the placement offer at (hopefully) similar discounts?? Assuming of course that holding 'today' will see me 'on the books' for the offer.. 

Cheers,

Buster


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## Dutchy3 (10 December 2006)

I'll revise my forecast again ... will see 6.50+ before 5.40 ...


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## Buster (13 December 2006)

Hey Fella's (and ladies!!),

languished most of the day, then finished real strong.. is this Insto's buying up more, surely the smallie investors couldn't produce that sort of finish..

Why would the Insto's buy up more?? Will they get a second bite of the cherry with the 'retail' offer??

Regards,

Buster.


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## bigdog (13 December 2006)

Volume and SP has been really on the increase over the past weeks

Agree something is happening

Date-----	Open	High	Low	Close	 Volume 
12-Dec-06	 6.01 	 6.12 	 6.01 	 6.12 	 12,861,915 
11-Dec-06	 6.01 	 6.05 	 6.00 	 6.03 	 8,358,482 
08-Dec-06	 5.99 	 6.00 	 5.93 	 5.98 	 10,344,081 
07-Dec-06	 6.03 	 6.07 	 5.94 	 5.98 	 13,859,722 
06-Dec-06	 5.90 	 6.11 	 5.84 	 6.06 	 56,174,817 
05-Dec-06	 5.64 	 5.64 	 5.64 	 5.64 	 73,804 
04-Dec-06	 5.64 	 5.64 	 5.64 	 5.64 	 -   
01-Dec-06	 5.80 	 5.80 	 5.64 	 5.64 	 2,461,035 
30-Nov-06	 5.73 	 5.80 	 5.65 	 5.78 	 4,373,090 
29-Nov-06	 5.58 	 5.74 	 5.56 	 5.70 	 3,816,659 
28-Nov-06	 5.68 	 5.68 	 5.58 	 5.61 	 8,018,451 
27-Nov-06	 5.70 	 5.76 	 5.65 	 5.69 	 3,494,053 
24-Nov-06	 5.80 	 5.84 	 5.64 	 5.65 	 13,909,835 
23-Nov-06	 5.67 	 5.85 	 5.67 	 5.75 	 6,118,787 
22-Nov-06	 5.65 	 5.71 	 5.58 	 5.69 	 3,360,680 
21-Nov-06	 5.62 	 5.64 	 5.56 	 5.62 	 4,784,207 
20-Nov-06	 5.70 	 5.70 	 5.54 	 5.54 	 5,599,322 
17-Nov-06	 5.68 	 5.70 	 5.58 	 5.65 	 3,695,464 
16-Nov-06	 5.73 	 5.78 	 5.60 	 5.64 	 6,200,425


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## austcomp (13 December 2006)

most analysts have upgraded their recommendation on the stock and the aquisition has been seen as a positive move for the company, could retest all time highs in the next twelve months in my opinion but I am not a financial analyst


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## maffu (24 December 2006)

On the 15th of December IAG announced a share purchase plan with shares on offer in parcels of $1500, $3000, $4000 or $5000 for a purchase price of $5.50 which is about a 15% discount on the current market price of 6.35.

At the moment im leaning towards applying for $3000 - $5000 in the offer, but have no practical experience in rights issues so would love to know how others are treating the offer.

Im assuming with shares sold at $5.50 it will dilute the share price lower then the $6.30's its currently at, so if i avoid the issue my current position would shrink, but if i take up the offer then would the share price drop roughly equal the gain on my new shares and leave my profit the same but with a larger position size? I believe thats the theory behind share issues, but id love someone with experience to help me out here.

Thanks.


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## theasxgorilla (24 December 2006)

Do you mean that you work at IAG and the SPP has been offered to you??


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## mmmmining (24 December 2006)

maffu said:
			
		

> I believe thats the theory behind share issues, but id love someone with experience to help me out here.
> 
> Thanks.



No rocket science. You have a free option to by up to 909.09 IAG share at $5.5. The current price is $6.35.  To me, there is an risk free opportunity to make $772 by simply replace existing IAG shares with shares through the purchase plan. Of course, I need to consider my tax situation very carefully. I would rather paying tax to make money than let the opportunity go.


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## barney (24 December 2006)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> No rocket science. You have a free option to by up to 909.09 IAG share at $5.5. The current price is $6.35.  To me, there is an risk free opportunity to make $772 by simply replace existing IAG shares with shares through the purchase plan. Of course, I need to consider my tax situation very carefully. I would rather paying tax to make money than let the opportunity go.




Howdy Lads (and Merry Xmas to all), I'll stick my neck out here and say that IAG (Imo) is likely to retrace fairly substantially at some point over the next month or so, for the simple reason you've descibed M...............  My wife owns a few IAG and I have tried to talk her into selling 1000 of them at the moment and then buy back her $5000 allottment to replace what she has sold, and make a quick few hundred profit .............. I think it would be unlikely that many others are not thinking the same "plan", and that being the case, the sp will have to drop as people take their "quick" profits ............ I could be totally wrong (maybe there is a takeover in the wings .... but why then would the Co be offering a discounted share entry??),  but human nature tells me this share must drop (and quickly) at some point in the near future ........... Anyone game to short it????    All the best, and don't drink TOO much over the xmas break!!!   Barney.


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## mmmmining (24 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> I think it would be unlikely that many others are not thinking the same "plan", and that being the case, the sp will have to drop as people take their "quick" profits ............ I could be totally wrong (maybe there is a takeover in the wings .... but why then would the Co be offering a discounted share entry??),  but human nature tells me this share must drop (and quickly) at some point in the near future




Barney, Merry Christmas! (You cannot hear this anymore in US. They have invented "Happy Holiday, Stupid")

I don't know how much  a bunch of mum and dad investors can do to move the market. The institute have got a lot at $5.5 already a few weeks ago. But the price is keeping up. Some situation in ORG. There are a lot other factors in the SP


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## barney (24 December 2006)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Barney, Merry Christmas! (You cannot hear this anymore in US. They have invented "Happy Holiday, Stupid")
> 
> I don't know how much  a bunch of mum and dad investors can do to move the market. The institute have got a lot at $5.5 already a few weeks ago. But the price is keeping up. Some situation in ORG. There are a lot other factors in the SP




Merry Xmas to you as well M,    I cant help it ... I'm a pessimistic contrarian ...... I actually hope the sp keeps going up, but I cant help but think that the alternative (be it short term ) might just happen!! ........... Cheers.


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## theasxgorilla (24 December 2006)

Personally, I'd be looking at the support levels.  Figure out how many major/minor support levels it's got to break through before it reaches $5.50.  $6.00 is the biggie that I can see right now.  Then $5.75ish.  Nice round numbers.  Who says T/A isn't useful?

Then, even if the price drops through both of those on it's way to $5.50 and you decide to sell, your net break-even cost-base is still better than someone who had to pay brokerage.

I agree with Barney, it will most likely retrace, and possibly go sideways again for a while, but the writing is on the wall/chart...it's broken out on volume and the trend is UP.

BTW, even if you decide to get in at $5.50, remember to set a stoploss.  Maybe you set yours at $5.50 (or slightly below to avoid being too obvious).  From the recent high of $6.44 this would represent a peak-to-trough draw down of 15%.  Historically, when uptrending, IAG has never exibited a peak to trough draw-down of more than 14%.  Statistically this puts you outside the noise.  If price goes on to exceed the high of $6.44 move your stop up.  You now have a trade that will be break-even at worst.


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## Rainmaker (18 March 2007)

Just wondering did people get the interim dividend of 13.5 cps last Friday? Mine hasn't come through yet....


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## milionerka (15 April 2007)

I understand that the payment date is 16 April 2007, at the level of 13.5 cents per share (as compared to 16cents last year)...


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## RFG001 (28 August 2007)

*IAG Dump or Hold*

What is going on with this company, poor share performance, bad losses and no real direction. My question would be HOLD or Dump this share ?

Would appreciate constructive response.

Cheers
RFG


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## Ferret (29 August 2007)

Well I bought some at 5.11 the other day, mainly with the intention of taking the 16c dividend and then selling out when (if?) the share price regains the dividend.

I thought at the time their decision to significanlty lighten their investments in equities at the end of 2006 was a bit strange.  That hasn't panned out at all.  Nevertheless, whilst competitive, I don't think insurance is a bad business.  I think the they will bounce off the $5 mark unless world markets tumble again.

Ferret


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## AnalysisParalysis (30 August 2007)

*Re: IAG Dump or Hold*



RFG001 said:


> What is going on with this company, poor share performance, bad losses and no real direction. My question would be HOLD or Dump this share ?
> 
> Would appreciate constructive response.
> 
> ...




They're a big company, at high risk. Natural disaster happens, down goes stock price. How can anyone factor in the weather to fundamental analysis?


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## Ferret (30 August 2007)

No doubt they have actuaries who model the risk.  But climate change adds a bit of uncertainty to this.

There is a view that the occaisional disaster is good for insurance companies.  Reminds people that there is a need to buy their product.

Still, I'm down more than I'd hoped at the moment!

Ferret


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## RFG001 (10 September 2007)

IAG a take over TARGET in my opinion, QBE the likely  Giant that could take over, IAG is Australia's biggest insurance company and QBE would do a better job running it , our premiums would go up and so would QBE share price.  :chainsaw:


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## BlingBling (10 September 2007)

I think anyone one would do a better job running it than the bunch of incompetents at the moment.
I can't believe that they were negotiating that china deal that fell thru for 3-4 years


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## Ferret (13 September 2007)

A lot of volume today and a decent rise.

I don't know about the takeover idea.  A takeover might be hard to get passed the competition regulators.  

Bargain hunting by LICs and some funds is my guess.


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## bromham (20 September 2007)

Don't know about takeover speculation but my Elliot wave charts insist on a price of $5.80 - $6.00 by the end of the year. Recent performance hasn't been too flash though. Maybe it knows something I don't.


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## Pager (11 October 2007)

Dipped below $5 this afternoon, FF yeild of about 6%. 

Whats the problem with it ?, maybe over reaction to more storms and more claims ?.

Been a dog for a while but keeps putting out positive news .

Is it still a potential takeover traget, QBE has been linked before but nothing came of it ?.

I hold for the long term but is one of my worst performers , at least i have the yeild though .

cheers

Pager


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## Hoobie (16 October 2007)

It should be scheduled for a price surge before the Christmas season as the execs bust their asses to pump out some positive news to earn their bonuses. I certainly hope so, it's dragging my portfolio down at the moment.


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## Rimtalay (22 October 2007)

Vote NO pay rise for the directors. I have.
If the share price goes down, so should their pay.
Directors want more money at shareholders expense.
Too many pigs at the trough.


----------



## RFG001 (24 October 2007)

Rimtalay said:


> Vote NO pay rise for the directors. I have.
> If the share price goes down, so should their pay.
> Directors want more money at shareholders expense.
> Too many pigs at the trough.




Rimtalay

STOP making all this noise, you are going to wake up the IAG directors, dont you know they have being working hard, and deserve their rest and of course more money  !!!    shhhh!:swear:


----------



## Hoobie (12 November 2007)

IAG is at a 52 week low on no (bad) news besides a general downturn on the ASX and DOW. It's looking like a bargain, no?


----------



## bigdog (12 November 2007)

Australian news item in The Australian October 26, 2007

52-wk High	6.6300
52-wk Low	4.4600

SP is currently 
IAG   	4.45  	  -0.050   	  -1.11%   	2,971,539 shares 	$13,328,189  @	12-Nov 02:48:10 PM

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22651947-643,00.html

*Downgrade makes IAG a takeover target*
October 26, 2007

INSURANCE Australia Group today downgraded revenue forecasts, softening it up as a takeover target and putting a bigger cloud over the future of chief executive Michael Hawker.

INSURANCE Australia Group today downgraded revenue forecasts, softening it up as a takeover target and putting a bigger cloud over the future of chief executive Michael Hawker.

Speculation the former test rugby player could be falling out of favour with institutional investors was further fanned by IAG's announcement today that it had hired former Promina chief Mike Wilkins to the new role of chief operating officer.

IAG also revealed its plans to ride out intense competition in British motor and Australian commercial markets by hiking prices, had not been as successful as first hoped.

It forecast gross written premium growth this financial year of between 7 and 9 per cent, down from its previous guidance of growth between 10 and 12 per cent.

The biggest insurer of Australian homes and cars has expanded aggressively into the cut-throat UK market, spending almost $2 billion on acquisitions in the past 12 months.

After delivering a 27 per cent dip in 2006/07 profit to $552 million on higher storm claims, Mr Hawker said in August that he was hoping price increases would keep premium growth in check.

He said today the downgrade was disappointing.

“Changing our outlook for fiscal 2008 is disappointing but it needs to be considered in the context of our disciplined approach to not continuing to write underperforming business,” Mr Hawker said in a statement.

Bell Potter senior adviser Stuart Smith said IAG was a takeover target.

“I think QBE will have a bid for it,” Mr Smith said.

Southern Cross Equities director Angus Aitken agreed that IAG was a cheap buy.

Shares in IAG had fallen 1.8 per cent to $4.81 by late afternoon, having earlier fallen as much as 6.1 per cent to $4.60

“We think it's highly undervalued and extremely vulnerable to be taken over,” Mr Aitken said.

He also said IAG would come under increasing pressure from its biggest investors to push Mr Hawker aside.

“Its share price would probably rise by 40 cents if they did,” Mr Aitken said.

“And I think it's interesting they've brought in Mike Wilkins as chief operating officer. The logical move for him would be to take over as CEO.”

Mr Hawker said the creation of a COO role would create an executive team structure more suited to IAG's growing international presence.

“I'm delighted to have someone of Mike's calibre join our team and strengthen the group's capability set,” Mr Hawker said.

IAG said its problems in the UK were concentrated at Advantage Insurance, a direct personal lines motor insurer it acquired in September last year.

The poorer outlook for Advantage also reflected tightening underwriting criteria and reduced participation in new business due to “issues with its rating systems,” IAG said.

Lower business volumes will also reduce the expected profit from the UK broking operations, as will the strength of the Australian dollar.

IAG also forecast an annual insurance margin between 11 and 13 per cent, replacing an earlier forecast of a return to shareholders 1.5 times its weighted average cost of capital.

IAG's insurance margin for 2006/07 was 11.4 per cent, as reported at its annual results in August. In 2005/06, it was 13.7 per cent.

Mr Wilkins stepped down as chief of Promina after it merged with Suncorp Metway.

He was credited with Promina's success in the lead up to the $7.9 billion deal.


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## Pager (12 November 2007)

Ive been holding this one for a while, each time its price starts to pick up, Micheal Hawker gets the pedegree chum out .

Must take the award for "Dog of the year", thats for the company, the board and the  MD 

Now thats what i call a triffecta


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## bigdog (13 November 2007)

AGM held today

SP  IAG   	$4.47  	   	  +$0.02   	  +0.45% @  13-Nov 11:30:31   	

ASX ANN today included:
13/11/2007	 	Sustainability Report 2007	

13/11/2007	 	CEO`s Presentation and Address to Shareholders	
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00782149

13/11/2007	 	Chairman`s Address to Shareholders
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00782148


*SMH news item reported*
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-revenue-growth/2007/11/13/1194766633000.html

*IAG says it expects 7-9% revenue growth*
November 13, 2007 - 10:54AM

Insurance Australia Group Ltd has confirmed it expects to grow its premium income by between seven and nine per cent this year.

Last month, Australia's biggest insurer of homes and cars downgraded its revenue growth forecast from between 10 and 12 per cent as it faced stiff competition in the Australian and British markets.

Chief executive Michael Hawker stood by that revised forecast at the insurer's annual general meeting on Tuesday.

"With regard to our forecast for the rest of this financial year, we expect gross written premium income will grow in the range of seven to nine per cent for the year, the insurance margin between 11 to 13 per cent, that we will retain our strong capital discipline, and maintain our dividend at 29.5 cents per share fully franked," Mr Hawker said.

The insurer will also hold back on acquisitions "until the benefits of expanding into the UK are realised", he said.

It delivered a 27 per cent dip in 2006/07 profit to $552 million on the back of higher storm claims, lower investment earnings and soft markets.

On Tuesday, the IAG boss acknowledged the insurer was facing problems in the UK market after it spent almost $2 billion there on acquisitions in fiscal 2007.

Mr Hawker said the acquisitions had "some operational issues" which had prevented them meeting the expected hurdle rate of returns.

Shareholders were told IAG was dealing with two negative cycles - one in the Australian commercial insurance and the UK private motor insurance market.

"However, we have taken decisive action to manage the short term issues and position ourselves for the return to more favourable conditions as the cycles turn, as they inevitably do," Mr Hawker said.

"We are also dealing with increased frequency of weather events above our expected norms over the past two years."

A strong advocate for increased corporate awareness of climate change, Mr Hawker said the adverse weather events had even exceeded the insurer's modelling over the past two years.

"There is clear evidence that our world is warming and that this increased warming is increasing the frequency and ferocity of storms," he said.

"These changes increase the importance of insurance for the community and the challenges in ensuring that pricing reflects the risk being covered."

IAG incurred more than $500 million in gross claims costs from storm damage in Australia and the UK in 2007.

The impact, net of reinsurance, was $200 million.

At 1033 AEDT on Tuesday IAG shares were steady at $4.45.


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## Ferret (13 November 2007)

I have been thinking of getting a few more at these price levels.

Somebody stop me!

Ferret


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## ROE (13 November 2007)

Hoobie said:


> IAG is at a 52 week low on no (bad) news besides a general downturn on the ASX and DOW. It's looking like a bargain, no?




dont know  Australia companies dont have a good history in UK facing massive lost.. Until IAG shows it can make decent ROE on UK operations it could comes home with a sorry story like NAB,AMP and Multiplex


----------



## bigdog (14 November 2007)

*SP is looking better today*
IAG    $4.55  	   	  +$0.13   	  +2.94%   	  4,311,526 shares 	 $19,509,826  @	 14-Nov 12:33:52

*Joy At IAG AGM*
November 14 2007 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=7263&setSub=1

Shareholders in the country's biggest general insurer, Insurance Australia Group, who might have been looking for more positive news from the lumbering giant at yesterday's AGM would have been disappointed.

All they got about the 2008 outlook was a re-statement, unchanged from the outlook published last month.

IAG’s guidance for FY08 (which was revised in October 2007) is to:

• Deliver gross written premium growth of 7 – 9%

• Achieve an insurance margin of 11 – 13%

• Retain our strong capital position and very strong ‘AA’ ratings for key wholly-owned insurers

• Deliver a dividend of 29.5 cents per share

(This was subject to no catastrophes or large losses outside IAG's allowance nor any material movements in currency or credit spreads).

So in yesterday's market when banks and financial stocks rallied strong on bargain hunting (especially among the banks), IAG shares went backwards, drifting a couple of cents lower to $4.32.

Small shareholders though had some justifiable moans about the company's poor recent performance and falling earnings.

The outlook in yesterday's speech by CEO Michael Hawker didn't attempt to flesh out or provide any further detail of last month' downgrade of its revenue growth forecast from between 10% and 12% because of tougher competition in the Australian and British markets.

"With regard to our forecast for the rest of this financial year, we expect gross written premium income will grow in the range of seven to nine per cent for the year, the insurance margin between 11 to 13 per cent, that we will retain our strong capital discipline, and maintain our dividend at 29.5 cents per share fully franked," Mr Hawker told the AGM.


He said the company would also hold back on acquisitions "until the benefits of expanding into the UK are realised".

IAG's 2007 earnings fell 27% to $552 million (from 2006's $759 million) on the back of higher storm claims in Britain and Australia (mainly NSW in June), lower investment earnings and soft markets.

Mr Hawker told shareholders the company was facing problems in the UK market after it spent almost $2 billion there on acquisitions in fiscal 2007.

Mr Hawker said the acquisitions had "some operational issues" which had prevented them meeting the expected hurdle rate of returns.

Shareholders were told IAG was dealing with two negative cycles - one in the Australian commercial insurance and the other in the UK private motor insurance market.

"However, we have taken decisive action to manage the short term issues and position ourselves for the return to more favourable conditions as the cycles turn, as they inevitably do," Mr Hawker said.

"We are also dealing with increased frequency of weather events above our expected norms over the past two years."

IAG incurred more than $500 million in gross claims costs from storm damage in Australia and the UK in 2007.

The impact, net of reinsurance, was $200 million.


----------



## bigdog (28 November 2007)

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22837008-664,00.html


*IAG boss defends share slump*
November 28, 2007 05:30pm

INSURANCE Australia Group boss Michael Hawker today defended his company, which has lost more than 30 per cent from its market value this year.

Shares in the biggest insurer of Australian homes and cars have slipped steadily from a high in January of $6.59 to close today at $4.35.

"The reason why the share price is where it is, is for a couple of reasons," Mr Hawker told a business lunch today.

"It's hard for, I think, investors to really get a sense of the profitability of insurance companies.

"So commercial insurance for instance in this country at the moment ... in this financial year is pretty near break-even for the industry."

Mr Hawker pointed out the IAG share price had jumped up and down in recent years as the market tried to assess its business.

"It's really because there's not enough understanding yet of the core fundamentals of the business.

"We're assessing future risk so it is a challenging business to manage."

IAG delivered a 27 per cent dip in 2006/07 profit to $552 million due to higher storm claims, lower investment earnings and soft markets.

The Hunter Valley storms in NSW and Cyclone Larry had both been 1-in-100 year events, Mr Hawker said, while rain in Britain had been the heaviest since records began in 1766.

Last month the insurer downgraded its forecasts for fiscal 2008 after its plans to ride out intense competition in British motor and Australian commercial markets, by hiking prices, proved less successful than hoped.

It has forecast gross written premium (GWP) growth this financial year of between seven and nine per cent, down from its previous guidance of growth between 10 and 12 per cent.

IAG spent almost $2 billion on UK acquisitions in fiscal 2007 but told shareholders this month it was now facing negative cycles in both the UK and local markets.

Today, Mr Hawker said the insurer's books would look more profitable if the European business was factored out.

He also defended IAG's decision to raise prices while other insurers had not, in a bid a to gain market share, even if they were writing business at a loss.

"Good luck to them in terms of they're doing. We're just not willing to do that."

The IAG boss compared his business with rivals QBE Insurance Group, which has a greater proportion of business offshore, and Suncorp-Metway which would be looking to gain synergies through its acquisition of Promina.

Mr Hawker later told reporters it was hard for market watchers to get "a real sense of the underlying value in insurance companies" using current accounting methods.

As well, the insurer had faced two tough issues in the short-term - larger than usual storm damage claims and negative cycles in both its UK and Australian markets.

"The company in the medium term is in a very strong position," he said.

"I'm managing the medium term. I can't deal with those short-term issues because they're outside of my control.

"All I can do is try to manage the company to out-perform over the medium term."


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## DionM (28 November 2007)

Looks like it is nearing it's bottom, perhaps (but then again, that's what I said when I bought in at a higher price!).

If they can manage that DPS it's a nice yield at current prices.

Trying to decide whether to top up or no.


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## bigdog (5 December 2007)

http://news.smh.com.au/stocks-to-watch/20071205-1ezb.html

Stocks to watch
December 5, 2007 - 7:55AM
IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LTD - steady at $4.50

Insurance Australia Group Ltd has received a broker upgrade based on its weak share price, a positive outlook for the local personal lines insurance market, and the possibility of a recovery in the UK.

Credit Suisse analysts Arjan van Veen and Jumana Nahhas upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Neutral".

Dec 4 Last Price ($A)  	 $4.5000
52-wk High	6.6300
52-wk Low	4.3500

Has been rumored as potential target in news articles in November 2007!


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## ta2693 (13 February 2008)

I feel something goes wrong in IAG.
The performance of AIG is so weak that indicates something abnormal exists.
I am afraid IAG using its fund inappropriately to invest in some high risk area. if the bad news comes out or the earning forecast 08 comes out under expectation. It may have a fiasco like CCP. 
According to the annual report 2007. it has 10884m investment. no further details about these investments. That is the only information we can get.
The market is bad. and the problem of bad investment only appears when market is bad.


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## Buster (13 February 2008)

Hmmm..

Not sure about that, although trying to break into the UK market was not a good idea in my opinion, too many good Aussie companies have failed miserably in that part of the world in the recent past..

The start of the downward trend certainly appears to be around the UK investment, so market sentiment appears similar to my opinion, however as for the more recent SP softness, I'm leaning towards the market in general performing poorly and the behavior of  mother nature of late, particularly in NSW and QLD.. 

I hold and watch with interest, don't have the fortitude to purchase anymore at the moment though.. 

Regards,

Buster


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## ROE (13 February 2008)

Look at Australian track record in UK 

AMP, Multiplex and NAB 

any company that venture there scare the hell out of me


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## osmosis (28 February 2008)

ta2693 said:


> I feel something goes wrong in IAG.
> The performance of AIG is so weak that indicates something abnormal exists.
> I am afraid IAG using its fund inappropriately to invest in some high risk area. if the bad news comes out or the earning forecast 08 comes out under expectation. It may have a fiasco like CCP.
> According to the annual report 2007. it has 10884m investment. no further details about these investments. That is the only information we can get.
> The market is bad. and the problem of bad investment only appears when market is bad.




Yes -- something else seems at play which is not obvious. Its been a long slide for IAG. Interim report tomorrow. Share price lower today -- may be related to SUN.


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## theasxgorilla (3 March 2008)

From a technical stand-point, 50% of all-time-range.  Said to be the strongest price level in classical technical analysis.

Would love to know if anyone has any good fundamental analysis insights into this one...at these prices the potential yield is off the planet 

ASX.G


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## chilliaa (3 March 2008)

yes but did you know the dividend is underwritten.  What this means is that the company issues more shares for those people on DRP.  It also means that those shareholders who elect to have the dividend in cash also dilute the shareholder base as the company 'sells' additional shares through a broker to finance the dividend.
So its a case of robbing peter to pay paul.


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## chilliaa (3 March 2008)

Sold my IAG shares and bought QBE instead.  With good stucks being thrown out with average stocks, i see no reason to hold IAG when QBE is at these discounted prices.
Both may go up once the market calms down but i think you will find in 10yrs time QBE will have gone up by a lot more.


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## Rainmaker (25 March 2008)

if the dividend record date is 12/03/2008 and date payable is 14 april this......does this mean if i sold my stock today i would still get the dividend on 14 April ?


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## AnDy62 (25 March 2008)

Yes you can definitely sell and get the divvy, they went ex-dividend on 5/3 incidentally, now to pad out my post


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## Bill M (10 April 2008)

IAG seems to be bucking the trend today, up 2.6% right now. The announcement today wasn't that big a deal. Anyone have any other info?


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## bigdog (15 April 2008)

IAG   $4.26    +$0.40  +10.36%   6,664,629 shares $28,664,890 @ 15-Apr 10:17:02 

*IAG rejects QBE proposal - price inadequate*
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00832393

*IAG REJECTS QBE PROPOSAL – PRICE INADEQUATE*
Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) today confirmed that it had been approached by QBE with an unsolicited and incomplete proposal to take over the company by way of a scheme of arrangement. The IAG Board carefully considered the proposal and concluded that the broad terms, in particular the price, were inadequate.

As a result, the Board rejected the proposal as it was clear it was not one which was in the best interests of shareholders, and therefore not one it could recommend.

IAG Chairman Mr James Strong said, “IAG is a unique asset with leading insurance franchises in Australia and New Zealand supported by a number of iconic brands. Whilst we recognise that the synergies available through a combination with QBE are considerable, the price needs to reflect the value that the IAG businesses would contribute to QBE, including the synergies to be generated.

“While QBE has claimed the proposal is a merger, the terms and the relative size of the businesses make it clear it is a takeover. In these circumstances, the price proposed, which represented only a 1% premium to the closing price on Friday, is totally inadequate.

“The QBE proposal seeks to take advantage of the current weakness in IAG’s share price and does not reflect the long term prospects and value inherent in IAG. IAG refutes QBE's suggestion that its share price currently includes an acquisition premium. The current IAG share price reflects a low point in insurance cycles in our core markets and higher than normal frequency of severe weather events in the past year. These issues have been exacerbated by volatile investment markets and expansion of credit spreads.”

Mr Strong said he was disappointed QBE had publicised a proposal which was incomplete and which QBE had requested IAG keep confidential. QBE first approached IAG late last week with a lower initial offer, which was also rejected.

The company has retained UBS AG and Mallesons to advise it in relation to this matter 

IAG will keep shareholders informed of any further developments.


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## laurie (15 April 2008)

So one begs the question why was IAG & QBE not in a trading halt while the talks were taking place,I mean for christ sake they had information that we did not 

cheers laurie


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## josjes (15 April 2008)

Bill M said:


> IAG seems to be bucking the trend today, up 2.6% right now. The announcement today wasn't that big a deal. Anyone have any other info?




There you go Bill. You have the answer. SP run very hard 8-9% a week before today announcement vs generally down market for Financial/Insurance sector. Proof that the big end of town will always be at advantage over us small guys.


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## bigdog (19 May 2008)

ASX announcement today

19/05/2008  QBE announces increased merger proposal with IAG 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00843242

New offer is 0.145 QBE share + 90 cents (worth today $4.60)

Prior offer was 0.142 shares + 70 cents

If QBE were really interested the carrot would be bigger!!

IAG   $4.23    -$0.20  -4.51% high of  $4.43 low of $4.13  10,958,528 shares  $46,444,408 @ 19-May 12:16:46 

QBE   $25.84    +$0.29  +1.14% high of  $26.03 low of  $25.30  1,050,108 shares  $26,932,140 @ 19-May 12:16:24


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## Max_ob (19 May 2008)

i don't quite understand. . . 

if the offer equates to $4.60

why is IAG share price today down 4.5% right now to $4.23 ?


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## TheAbyss (19 May 2008)

Because the speculators are becoming anxious that the IAG board will successfully defend the take over. 

Question is do you lock in 15% profit today or take the risk for another 15% if QBE are successful? What would you do? 

Lock in profits, wait for a clear sign as to which way things look like going then reinvest or keep your ammo dry is the concensus by the looks imo.


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## mapna (19 May 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Because the speculators are becoming anxious that the IAG board will successfully defend the take over.
> 
> Question is do you lock in 15% profit today or take the risk for another 15% if QBE are successful? What would you do?
> 
> Lock in profits, wait for a clear sign as to which way things look like going then reinvest or keep your ammo dry is the concensus by the looks imo.




1. why would the shareholers believed that the IAG board will defend the take over after the price increased? should not they do it with the initial offer with lower price?

2. Money is yours when it is in your a/c. SP is moving everyday and it is your book value only.  The question is "are you greedy??". IMO.


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## TheAbyss (19 May 2008)

mapna said:


> 1. why would the shareholers believed that the IAG board will defend the take over after the price increased? should not they do it with the initial offer with lower price?
> 
> 2. Money is yours when it is in your a/c. SP is moving everyday and it is your book value only.  The question is "are you greedy??". IMO.





IAG are on record as refusing both offers so not sure where you are coming from Mapna. Sellers are obviously not greedy they are locking in what is on the table.

All that is required is something positive on the offer and the SP will rise to equal value with the offer. Until then it will be in a holding pattern. Remember IAG is up significantly from its March low of $3.25 ish so a bit of [rofit is on the tabl;e to be taken at the moment already. The QBE offer will need to get near $5 to have a realistic chance of getting approval imo.


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## i wanna b rich! (21 May 2008)

The IAG board again rejected the offer from QBE.

"QBE has withdrawn its sweetened $8.7 billion takeover proposal for IAG after the target's board last night rejected it - and IAG shares have tumbled.

IAG said after the market closed last night that QBE's offer was priced opportunistically to take advantage of the short-term weakness in IAG's share price, which it said was primarily caused by a low point in the insurance cycle."

source:
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23734333-31037,00.html

Maybe a hostile take over? or maybe a better offer from QBE as TheAbyss said. Either way I'd be pretty "comfortable" holding IAG shares


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## dan-o (2 July 2008)

anyone think this stock is attractive at current levels of about $3.40? 
good fully franked yield...


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## CAB SAV (2 July 2008)

Dan,o  I'd leave for few weeks. New co will give company update. They are still a crap company and the industry is soft, but if QBE were prepared to pay +$4.00, good upside.
Only concern is the div. don't know if they can keep it up.


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## Ferret (2 July 2008)

I don't think it would be a surprise if they do cut the dividend, and I think the market knows that.

Nevertheless, I think IAG is looking quite attractive as a takeover play.  I'll be very surprised if QBE don't come back in the next few months, probably just with the same offer as before.  Given the way the share price has tanked since QBE walked away a month ago, there would be alot of pressure on the IAG board to treat a second offer more seriously.

I haven't been following the QBE price, but I guess a bid on the same terms as before equates to around a 30% premium to the current IAG price.

Ferret


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## Bafana (4 March 2009)

Got an offer in the mail to buy additional shares without brookers fees (forgot I had shares in this company until after I tore up the loetter thinkin git was spam). Anyone taking up the offer and what's the current feel on their sahres right now?


----------



## trading_rookie (20 March 2009)

...by the lack of responses I'd say no. I'm leaning towards no - burnt by the last SSP. 

Why is that bow-tie wearing git still the chairman?


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## Bill M (26 March 2009)

Just a friendly reminder to all IAG shareholders that the SPP payments have to be done by the close of business tomorrow. The share price at this moment is $3.49, the offer is $3. There is a good opportunity to make money out of this, good luck to you all.


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## bigdog (1 April 2009)

*The IAG share price has been increasing; volume was VG yesterday!!*
Date.......  	 Close   	 Chge 	Volume  
31-Mar-09	 3.50 	 0.12 	11,162,822
30-Mar-09	 3.38 	-0.01 	3,156,383
27-Mar-09	 3.39 	-0.09 	7,584,572
26-Mar-09	 3.48 	 0.01 	7,523,116
25-Mar-09	 3.47 	 0.08 	7,182,743
24-Mar-09	 3.39 	 0.01 	5,195,701
23-Mar-09	 3.38 	-0.02 	3,518,895
20-Mar-09	 3.40 	-0.05 	6,502,164
19-Mar-09	 3.45 	-0.06 	17,937,096
18-Mar-09	 3.51 	 0.01 	8,816,503
17-Mar-09	 3.50 	 0.10 	6,175,018
16-Mar-09	 3.40 	 0.03 	7,555,861
13-Mar-09	 3.37 	 0.07 	7,834,122
12-Mar-09	 3.30 	 0.08 	3,204,399
11-Mar-09	 3.22 	-0.01 	7,313,560
10-Mar-09	 3.23 	 0.17 	6,107,495
09-Mar-09	 3.06 	0.00	8,133,414



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25271622-36418,00.html?from=public_rss

*IAG revamps sustainability strategy to insure future*

Sara Rich | April 01, 2009
Article from:  The Australian

INSURANCE Australia Group says a massive overhaul of its approach to sustainability has meant that despite the global downturn the company is close to reaching its full potential.

In July last year IAG, whose brands include NRMA, RACV and CGU, announced a new corporate strategy and operating model designed to improve its efficiency and ultimately make the business more sustainable.

IAG chief executive Michael Wilkins said yesterday that the approach addressed all aspects of the business -- economic, customers, workforce, environmental and community factors -- not just issues associated with climate change, which some companies were stuck on.

"More recently I think the concept of sustainability has become very much skewed towards the environment and towards community concerns," he said at an American Chamber of Commerce lunch in Sydney.

"I think sustainability is far more than that -- to me the sustainability of a business is predicated on its financial viability, the strength and loyalty of the customers and franchises it has, the skills and engagement of the people, and a recognition of and response to the impacts the organisation has on the wider community and on the environment.

"It was with this is mind that we refined our approach to sustainability at IAG."

The strategy involved restructuring and simplifying the Australian operations, shedding some of the less profitable businesses in Britain and pursuing growth opportunities in Asia.

It also focused on promoting greater brand awareness through a series of advertising campaigns and reducing its environmental footprint.

"If we get it right, we are sustainable; if we don't get it right, we will ultimately cease to exist and someone else will get it right," Mr Wilkins said. "But, we believe that by refining our approach to sustainability ... we have given ourselves a considerable chance.

"If we continue to do that then I believe IAG can reach its full potential."

In February, the company announced that first-half profit had fallen 96 per cent to $4 million because of investment losses and a loss on the sale of some of its UK operations, but that insurance profit was up $190 million at $227 million.

IAG's share price climbed 12c, or 3.55 per cent, yesterday to close at $3.50.


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## bigdog (6 April 2009)

Three ASX ANN today
06-04-2009 09:26 AM  	 IAG  	  2009 Interim Report to Shareholders 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00942188

ANN includes:
IAG’s insurance profit was up 19% to $227 million compared to the previous corresponding period, representing an improved insurance margin of 6.2%, up from 5.1%.

Our net profit after tax of $4 million was significantly impacted by a $148 million reduction in investment income on shareholders’ funds compared to the previous corresponding period due to weak investment markets, and one off costs associated with the divestment of underperforming businesses during the half. 

We expect further improvement in our underlying performance over the remainder of the 2009 financial year, as a result of our strengthened executive team, efficiency programme, disciplined underwriting and exit from our poorly performing mass market operations in the UK.


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00942186
IAG advises that ordinary shares to be allocated under the Company’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) will be priced at $3.4320 per share for the dividend payable on 8 April 2009. 


06-04-2009 09:20 AM 	IAG 	Share Purchase Plan Results and Sterling Debt  
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00942185
New shares issued under the Share Purchase Plan will commence trading no later than Wednesday 8 April 2009.  Holding statements will be mailed to participating shareholders from Thursday 9 April 2009. 

IAG Share Purchase Plan raises more than $84m; and additional subordinated debt repurchased



Looks like market liked ANN but then again market up 6% after opening
IAG   $	3.39  	  +$0.020   	  +0.59%   	@  	06-Apr 10:05:37 AM


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## bigdog (14 August 2009)

IAG share price was up 15 cents yesterday to close at $3.92

There have been serveral large after close trades

14-08-2009 09:32 AM $3.920 21526 $84,381.920 ETF Special Trade,Crossed 
13-08-2009 05:16 PM $3.770 52828 $199,161.560 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
13-08-2009 04:49 PM $3.770 105656 $398,323.120 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
13-08-2009 04:36 PM $3.920 699116 $2,740,534.720 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
13-08-2009 04:34 PM $3.920 337820 $1,324,254.400 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
13-08-2009 04:10 PM $3.920 45713 $179,194.960


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## bigdog (22 August 2009)

The share price was looking VG until Aug 21!!

Date...........Close Volume 
21-Aug-2009 3.55 25,890,398 
20-Aug-2009 3.80 12,127,988 
19-Aug-2009 3.81 9,760,908 
18-Aug-2009 3.86 6,921,963 
17-Aug-2009 3.84 6,817,791 
14-Aug-2009 3.98 8,538,539 


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25963000-36418,00.html?from=public_rss

*IAG falls as profit fails to impress *
August 22, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

INSURANCE Australia Group is back in the black for the 2008-09 financial year. But its result disappointed the market because of a fall in investments, increased claims and a weak performance from CGU.
Australia's biggest general insurer said net profit for the year to the end of June recovered to $181 million, after a loss of $261m previously due to a $400m restructuring and impairment charge. 

However, the result was significantly below analysts' expectations -- market consensus was for a $253m profit -- causing its share price to fall 6.58 per cent to $3.55. 

Directors have cut final dividend from 9c to 6c a share, taking the total payments for the year to 10c, compared with 22.5c the year before. 

Chief executive Michael Wilkins said the result might have been below expectations because of some one-off costs, including a loss on the sale of its British motor business, and a $39m loss on the investment of its shareholder funds. 

Insurance margins -- a critical measure of an insurer's profitability -- jumped from 5.4 per cent a year ago to 7.1 per cent and are expected to continue growing this financial year. 

But the result was below guidance provided at the beginning of 2008-09, when IAG said it expected to produce a full-year insurance margin of 10 per cent, due to a number of severe weather events costing $451m in claims and a significant decline in financial markets. 

"We acknowledge that the result is less than where we started the year with, but when you look at the impact of volatile investment markets, the fact our natural perils claims, which included the Victorian bushfires, were $140m more than we anticipated and we had the impact of credit spreads and a number of other issues, I am pretty satisfied with where we are," Mr Wilkins said. 

Gross written premium, a standard measure of insurance revenue, grew slightly from $7.793 billion to $7.842bn, representing a 4 per cent jump in underlying gross written premium, after excluding foreign exchange impacts and businesses divested during the year. 

Insurance profit increased 31 per cent to $515m from $392m a year ago. 

Premium rates in Australia increased by 5.3 per cent within IAG's direct business -- NRMA Insurance, SGIO and SGIC -- and by 6 per cent across its commercial portfolios. 

Prices were up 4.4 per cent in New Zealand, 5-7 per cent in Britain and 2-3 per cent in Asia. 

Mr Wilkins, who was appointed in May last year and had focused on rebuilding IAG by divesting unprofitable assets, cutting costs and raising premiums, said he expected the rate increases would continue this financial year and he was confident the company's performance would improve further. 

He is expecting 3-5 per cent growth in underlying gross written premium and an insurance margin of 9-11 per cent for the full year. 

"This will be on the back of higher premiums, ongoing operating efficiencies, improved underwriting discipline and hardening market conditions," Mr Wilkins said. 

But he admitted "there is still more work to do". 

He said the turnaround strategy for CGU, whose full-year insurance profit fell by more than half to $48m, was taking longer than expected due to the tough economic and market conditions, while IAG's New Zealand business had only just broken even in 2008-09.
531


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## bigdog (19 November 2009)

Shares Issued 2,078,994,021 Market Capitalisation $8,336,766,024 
52 Week High $4.1300 52 Week Low $2.9400 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aBzgaOWo.RpU

*IAG Shares Gain in Sydney on QBE Takeover Speculation* (Update2) 
By Shani Raja

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Insurance Australia Group Ltd. rose the most in more than a week in Sydney trading on speculation QBE Insurance Group Ltd. is considering a takeover offer. 

Shares in IAG, the nation’s largest insurer of cars and houses, climbed 2.3 percent to A$4.01 at the close of trading on the Australian stock exchange. QBE shares rose 2.5 percent to A$23.01. 

QBE may be considering a takeover offer, the Australian Financial Review reported in its Street talk column, without citing anyone. 

A spokeswoman for Taurus Marketing, QBE’s press agency, declined to comment. Emma Foster, a spokeswoman for IAG, also declined to comment. 

In May 2008, QBE withdrew an A$8.7 billion ($8.1 billion) offer for IAG aimed at creating Australia’s biggest insurance company. 

“A takeover of IAG would make strategic sense,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer at IG Markets in Melbourne. “We know QBE has an aggressive policy of growing the business through acquisitions and we have seen an offer before.”

Street Talk in the AFR says QBE Insurance (QBE) is running the numbers on Insurance Australia Group (IAG) again. It is believed QBE will make a move for IAG sooner rather than later and this time around offer a reasonable price that the IAG board will seriously consider. The news hasn’t done much for the IAG share price which is only up 5c to 398c. QBE up 39c to 2283c. 
6793


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## bigdog (19 November 2009)

Looks like the market like that articles published on Insurance Australia Group on speculation QBE Insurance Group Ltd. is considering a takeover offer. 

IAG  4.21 +0.200  +4.99%  high of  $4.21 20,553,184 shares $85,387,823 @ 19-Nov 04:27:58 PM 

The volume today at 20,553,184 shares  was the fourth highest for the year!


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## bigdog (4 February 2010)

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,20797,26674094-3122,00.html?from=public_rss

*IAG profit jump lifts shares in insurance sector*

Kerrie Sinclair
February 04, 2010 12:00am

A STRONG improvement in Insurance Australia Group's six-month insurance profit margin has fired up shares across the Australian insurance sector.

But analysts said it wasn't clear that expectations for long-term insurance margins should be revised sharply higher, which might restrain price gains.

IAG shares closed up 4.5 per cent at $3.96, with Suncorp up 5.9 per cent to $9.27.

QBE Insurance Group shed an initial 1 per cent gain to close flat at $23.10.

Sydney-based IAG said its insurance profit margin for the six months to December was likely to be 13.4 per cent, more than double the 6.2 per cent achieved in the same period a year earlier.

It said its full-year 2010 insurance profit margin was now likely to be in a range of 11.5 to 13 per cent, up from its prior forecast of 9-11 per cent.

It said this reflected lower claim costs from natural disasters, totalling $121 million, against the $166 million it had allowed for, as well as $80 million in reserve releases and a $28 million net gain on favourable movements in credit spreads. A year earlier it booked an $86 million net loss on credit spreads.

Analysts said a worsening in bodily injury claims in the UK was the only negative in yesterday's statement.

IAG is Australia's largest general insurer in terms of written premiums, with about $7.8 billion in premiums annually. It expanded into the UK, Thailand, Malaysia and India in the past few years and its brands include NRMA Insurance, SGIO, CGU and Equity Red Star in the UK.

Macquarie Private Wealth senior investment adviser Helen Spencer said the "apparently stunning" improvement in IAG's first-half 2010 insurance margin suggested positive market surprises were also likely from Suncorp and QBE.

But she said the key issue was the extent to which the market adjusted expectations for long-term sustainable margins.

Macquarie is likely to upgrade is fiscal-year 2010 net profit forecast for IAG by 12.5 per cent and by about 5 per cent for fiscal 2011, but it yesterday kept its underperform rating on IAG shares.

Citi analysts Nigel Pittaway and Mark Tomlins said IAG's first-half insurance margin result had beaten their forecast of a 10.9 per cent margin.

IAG did not yesterday detail its divisional performance, but Citi estimated IAG's insurance profit was $88 million above the forecast, with reserve releases up to $40 million over the forecast.

They said a bigger-than-expected $30 million to $35 million improvement now appeared likely from IAG's underlying operational performance.

Citi analysts kept their "hold/medium risk" recommendation on IAG shares and said Suncorp shares might be the best stock pick of the sector.


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## Pallen (24 March 2010)

What's everyones opinions of IAG future given the hype surrounding the potential QBE takerover is all but gone?

Any roadblocks for future growth?

Personally I think the biggest threat to IAG is the banks, Commonwealth has a good model in S.A has a dominant market share and will expand its insurance services into other states.

It has the capital and the expertise to take a severe chunk out of IAG's market share.

Having said that the dominant position it holds in NSW through NRMA should hold it in good stead for a long while, growth wise I think it's scope is limited.


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## doctorj (24 March 2010)

Pallen said:


> What's everyones opinions of IAG future given the hype surrounding the potential QBE takerover is all but gone?
> 
> Any roadblocks for future growth?
> 
> ...



I don’t know about Commonwealth Bank being a long term threat to any insurer in Australia.  Changes due soon under Basel 3 and Solvency 2 make it less favourable for a Bank to own an insurance sub.  Insurance analysts expect a wave of M&A as banks dispose of their insurance subsidiaries and I don’t see particular reason for banks in Australia to buck the trend.


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## tedrhein (14 April 2011)

Australian banks don't need to worry about IAG's stronghold in insurance premiums, though other health insurance australia programs may have to diversify their insurance services to gain advantage of what is left in the market share.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2013)

Some brokers I believe from AFR reports, are suggesting IAG is overpriced and may retreat to $4.10.

Looking at a 3 year weekly chart they may not be far out.

I will hold even though it looks a bit toppy, and may add closer to their prediction should it eventuate, as $4.00 seems like good support, being previously resistance in the past but comprehensively broken recently.







gg


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## burglar (12 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some brokers I believe from AFR reports, are suggesting IAG is overpriced and may retreat to $4.10. ...gg



@gg
You are spooking the punters and helping to produce a self-fullfilling prophecy!

"Species associated with stampede behavior include cattle, elephants, blue wildebeests, walruses, wild horses, rhinoceros and humans." Thanks wiki.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2013)

burglar said:


> @gg
> You are spooking the punters and helping to produce a self-fullfilling prophecy!
> 
> "Species associated with stampede behavior include cattle, elephants, blue wildebeests, walruses, wild horses, rhinoceros and humans." Thanks wiki.




I never believe what's in the papers, but the chart is looking toppy in the medium term.

I like you hope the mob don't go with the brokers, but I'll buy when it pauses closer to $4.00 if they do.

Love the wiki quote.

gg


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## wombat40 (13 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some brokers I believe from AFR reports, are suggesting IAG is overpriced and may retreat to $4.10.
> 
> Looking at a 3 year weekly chart they may not be far out.
> 
> ...




I dont know about it being Toppy, Its been in a year long uptrend .  I got a signal to buy at $4 with my mech. system so i dont need to have an opinion on it..But the chart looks good.


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 January 2013)

burglar said:


> @gg
> You are spooking the punters and helping to produce a self-fullfilling prophecy!
> 
> "Species associated with stampede behavior include cattle, elephants, blue wildebeests, walruses, wild horses, rhinoceros and humans." Thanks wiki.






wombat40 said:


> I dont know about it being Toppy, Its been in a year long uptrend .  I got a signal to buy at $4 with my mech. system so i dont need to have an opinion on it..But the chart looks good.




It could be the end of a wave 3 Elliott atm, so a retracement to $4.10 as a wave 4 would make sense.











gg


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## notting (13 January 2013)

Way over valued IMO.
However with that nice high close on your weekly and the trend.
Wouldn't be betting against it just yet.


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## skc (14 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some brokers I believe from AFR reports, are suggesting IAG is overpriced and may retreat to $4.10.
> 
> Looking at a 3 year weekly chart they may not be far out.
> 
> I will hold even though it looks a bit toppy, and may add closer to their prediction should it eventuate, as $4.00 seems like good support, being previously resistance in the past but comprehensively broken recently.




Look at the chart for IAG, SUN, AMP etc and they have been universally bullish since the Aug profit report. It makes sense for a bit of hesitation new in anticipation of the Feb reporting season. Some of the rise was probably due to PE expansion (since the end of the Euro crisis), but some will start to question the baked in EPS rises over the next few weeks imho.


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 January 2013)

skc said:


> Look at the chart for IAG, SUN, AMP etc and they have been universally bullish since the Aug profit report. It makes sense for a bit of hesitation new in anticipation of the Feb reporting season. Some of the rise was probably due to PE expansion (since the end of the Euro crisis), but some will start to question the baked in EPS rises over the next few weeks imho.




A good call skc.

I followed your advice and hung in.






There seems considerable volume support for IAG at present.

gg


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## hangseng (18 March 2013)

One broker I subscribe to had IAG as a short at around $4.60. I had a small short dabble and lost as it became clear the bullish move hadn't ended so flipped and went long to $5.56 and sold, wasn't brave enough for the last move up. Well done there gg.

P/E of IAG now surely way over the top at around 22.56 (Yahoo data), it was at 12.3 in October according to this comment from the Motley Fools website:

"_*IAG is currently trading on a prospective P/E ratio of 12.3*, compared to competitors QBE Insurance Group (ASX: QBE) on 11.1, and AMP Limited (ASX: AMP) on 12.8. Analyst forecasts are pointing to a potential dividend yield of around 5.2%, likely to be fully-franked"_

I went short again last week at $5.76 as I think the wind is about to be taken from the IAG (and market) sails for a stint, so far so good but let's see how this goes. Eyese firmly planted on a market correction and good opportunity to go long on IAG for cap gain and future dividends. At the moment seems limited upside if any for C/G.

Others thoughts on IAG longer term?


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## skc (18 March 2013)

hangseng said:


> One broker I subscribe to had IAG as a short at around $4.60. I had a small short dabble and lost as it became clear the bullish move hadn't ended so flipped and went long to $5.56 and sold, wasn't brave enough for the last move up. Well done there gg.
> 
> P/E of IAG now surely way over the top at around 22.56 (Yahoo data), it was at 12.3 in October according to this comment from the Motley Fools website:
> 
> ...




You should probably consult your broker's report for P/E rather than Yahoo. 2013 consensus EPS ~46c so PE is 12.5 or there about.


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## hangseng (19 March 2013)

skc said:


> You should probably consult your broker's report for P/E rather than Yahoo. 2013 consensus EPS ~46c so PE is 12.5 or there about.




Thanks for that.

Only did that for quick access, at the time they had IAG at a P/E of 19.2 with an industry average around 12.5 as at Oct 2012, obviously based on previous earnings. So at that time they saw IAG as overpriced with better industry value elsewhere. 

Currently they haven't an update and I haven't checked directly so thanks for that. However I still believe a market correction is on the way and IAG is very toppy struggling to break around $5.85. I definitely may be wrong of course but I believe it is a low risk short at this point, just for how long is the question with the dividend chasers out there. However how high would it get pushed to before funds think it is too expensive?

Clearly others saw IAG as toppy at much lower prices in January 2013, so now at over $5.60 seems a low risk short entry.


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## hangseng (19 March 2013)

Short looking better today with a lot of selling pressure.

In comparison to peers IAG is clearly outperforming is it really that much better than AMP, SUN and in particular QBE (way down)?


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## galumay (13 August 2014)

I have been looking at the various insurance companies for my SMSF and so far IAG looks most attractive of the ones I have cast my eye over, (SUN, QBE). 

Does anyone have any views from a FA point of view they would care to share?


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## skc (13 August 2014)

galumay said:


> I have been looking at the various insurance companies for my SMSF and so far IAG looks most attractive of the ones I have cast my eye over, (SUN, QBE).
> 
> Does anyone have any views from a FA point of view they would care to share?




Both SUN and IAG at the moment are enjoying pretty good times. Few catastrophic event/claims leading to excess capital and special dividends from reserves (which the market loves), lower reinsurance rate. Although absolute growth in premium is low, competition appears to be mostly oligopolistic in nature.

I'd argue that insurance is a cyclical industry, and it's perhaps better to buy at the bottom than the top of the cycle. The best time evidently is when a disaster or two struck. 

QBE is another story. It's got multiple disasters of it's own making. But it does offer more return on more risk.


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## TPI (1 November 2014)

Foreign insurers coming down under, time to short?


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## dutchie (10 February 2015)

IAG trying to break out of an ascending triangle.

Failed again this morning.

May come down to support line one more time before moving up.

Keeping an eye on it.


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## dutchie (11 February 2015)

I think this ascending triangle will fail.

IAG fell 19c (about 3%) (bigger than usual daily movement) today on bigger volume and closed on its lows.

It penetrated the support line slightly and closed on it.

It could be worth watching still but in MHO it may just trade within a range $5.40 - $6.60 for a while.


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## skc (11 February 2015)

dutchie said:


> I think this ascending triangle will fail.
> 
> IAG fell 19c (about 3%) (bigger than usual daily movement) today on bigger volume and closed on its lows.
> 
> ...




The market readthru Suncorp's report today which tempered down insurance top line growth to just low single digits. The outlook comments by IAG when they report will probably drive the price action.


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## JTLP (3 March 2015)

It's gone XD but also been kept down since the market update. 

Am I right in the assessment that 5.75 will need to hold or it could fall further?

Yield looks good on this one...


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## notting (16 June 2015)

After confirming it is in a yearly downtrend, breaking down through solid support at 5.30 and hitting a yearly low.  It makes the announcement to die for - BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY takes a stake. 
The Buff always was a bit of a Technical bullier.
Guess that support is gonna hold after all, with an insurance play like that!


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## Value Collector (18 June 2015)

notting said:


> It makes the announcement to die for - BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY takes a stake.




An Interesting deal Berkshire has Put together.

Key Points.

Berkshire Injects $500 Million cash into IAG to secure a 3.7% Ownership Interest.

A premium splitting deal, where Berkshire takes 20% of the premiums and pays 20% of claims, effectively makes the IAG Policy Portfolio a 20/80 joint venture between Berkshire and IAG.

IAG maintains ownership of its brands and has the responsibility for selling policies. 

Berkshire to Pay IAG a commission on the 20% of premiums IAG hands over.

Berkshire to Pay 20% of IAG operating costs.

-------

What does Berkshire get -

1, Dividends and capital growth on the IAG shares it holds.

2, Investment profits from the float it will generate by holding it's share of premiums until it has to pay claims

3, Potential to earning a profit margin on the premiums if claims end up being less than Premiums.


What does IAG get -

1, Investment profits from the float on the 80% of premiums they retain, until they have to pay claims

2, Commission on the 20% of premiums they hand off to berkshire

3, The deal unlocks capital that they will be able to invest, and generate better earnings

4, They can write more insurance without having to pay as much reinsurance fees to outsiders.

5, Potential growth into other markets and speciality insurance areas that would not have been possible without the capital and risk spreading the Berkshire deal provides.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 February 2019)

About to pop.


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## Ann (19 February 2019)

I was looking at this as a potential buy but I am not as convinced as Gringotts Bank about a pop.
The reason I have backed away from it is the $XXJ sector is not looking too flash as it has not been able to rise above the 200 day SMA once over the last six months.
IAG which is one of the $XXJ constituents has failed to remain above the 200 day SMA for the last five trading days. Looking at Twiggs Money Flow, it appears there is a falling away of money into IAG.  Possibly a stock to watch but at this stage I will not be buying in.


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## Ann (20 March 2019)

NRMA/IAG listed Tuesday August 8th 2000 its initial price was $2.75 today it closed at $7.60


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## greggles (24 January 2020)

IAG down 5.4% to $7.31 today after advising the market that it will take an earnings hit after the hailstorms that pounded Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney this week resulted in more than 28,000 claims of home and vehicle damage.

IAG expects the claims to result in an unexpected pre-tax cost of $169 million.

Insurance is a good business to be in as long as the number and quantum of claims are predictable. Not so much when natural disasters result in hundreds of millions dollars of unexpected payouts.


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## Trav. (19 November 2020)

Trading Halt - Does anyone know what the judgement was ?


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## Trav. (19 November 2020)

google is your friend...









						Insurers on hook for pandemic losses after NSW Supreme Court ruling
					

Thousands of businesses may be covered for pandemic losses following a landmark NSW Supreme Court of Appeal ruling that found insurers may be required to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars under business interruption policies.




					www.smh.com.au


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## barney (19 November 2020)

Trav. said:


> google is your friend...




Could get a bit sticky really.  

The High Court determines the Insurance Co's have to pay up, but its the Government determines whether businesses have to go into lock down and risk going broke ... 

I see a cat fight developing, and the unlucky retail punter will likely end up being the punching bag while the Instos drag things on in court for ever.


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## barney (20 November 2020)

*IAG responds to business interruption test case judgment and announces capital raising of up to $750 million to strengthen balance sheet *

IAG management acted quickly re the above HC decision and announced a $750 million Cap Raise just in case. Got to give them credit for taking quick action. 

I wonder how well the CR price at $5.05 will be "welcomed"  It looks like it could trade under that when it re-opens!

Pity, as IAG SP was looking like turning a corner after a pretty ordinary 2020.  I don't hold but my better half does


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## Trav. (23 November 2020)

Well that hurt a bit.

IAG open ~ -7% down to the placement price of $5.05 level ( just a tad under ) and my profits vanished in the process.

I thought that this was an over reaction so I couldn't help myself and purchased a couple of parcels at $5.039 and $5.05 so we will see what happens but IAG was looking strong since October and hopefully this is just a minor setback.


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## Trav. (24 November 2020)

IAG working to close the gap, looking good and hopefully will continue


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## Trav. (27 November 2020)

Trav. said:


> purchased a couple of parcels at $5.039 and $5.05




I offloaded these additional buys today and made a few bucks.

I am still holding my original investment which is at break even now. I will give it another week to see what happens and then maybe offload if it stalls.

Last 5 days


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## dead trader (6 January 2021)

I think IAG is going to rise, as it is has bounced off a minor support level near the $4.65 zone. From a technical analysis perspective, I like to buy on support and sell at resistance.


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## Trav. (6 January 2021)

greasy_pancakes said:


> I think IAG is going to rise



Let's hope that you are right as I entered IAG yesterday for a trade...looks a bit oversold to me but we will see how it goes.


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## Ferret (6 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> looks a bit oversold to me



I agree.  I picked some up on Monday at 4.725.  In the red at the moment, but I'm willing to hold this for a while and take some dividends.


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## Trav. (14 January 2021)

IAG going strong since our last posts.

Closed @ $5.10 and I am looking at some resistance circa $5.50


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## Trav. (9 February 2021)

I am back in with IAG and noticed the potential W3 on the daily chart. Target ~ 5.34

Up 2.4% today so hopefully it continues


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## peter2 (9 February 2021)

IAG scheduled to report HY21 results  Feb 10 (tomorrow). Hope they're good for you.


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## Trav. (9 February 2021)

Thanks @peter2  lets hope today's rise is a good sign of some positive news coming


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## Trav. (10 February 2021)

OK - after digging into my extensive fundamental knowledge and analytical skills I have deemed that the following results from IAG are a winner
7 up arrows out of 9 -  all we need is 1 more up arrow..... a bit like this one


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## peter2 (10 February 2021)

Winner, winner, pheasant dinner.  You lucky B.  Hope you've bought that EWave software.


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## Trav. (10 February 2021)

Yes mate, it has paid for itself.


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## Dona Ferentes (9 March 2021)

and then, some other factoring in needed

_Last year, the newly collapsed Greensill engaged in $143 billion of financing for 10 million customers in 175 countries. It had been making a tiding off a complex business model that provided debt coverage to companies who were awaiting payment from their customers, and then sold off this debt in bundles to other investors.

These debt bundles were insured but this safety net started to unwind when insurance giants began to get nervous about their potential exposure to risk.

Court documents from early March showed that Greensill unsuccessfully tried to get IAG to renew its policies in an urgent after-hours hearing in the NSW Supreme Court._

On Tuesday morning, amid ongoing speculation that IAG was exposed to risk from Greensill's collapse, the insurance giant's shareprice dived as much as 10.2 per cent to $4.30. IAG went into a trading halt and then informed the market that it did not have exposure to Greensill.

IAG said it had previously owned a trade credit specialist called BCC that had written contracts to cover Greensill bonds, however IAG clarified that it no longer owned that entity.


> "_In response to market enquiries relating to Greensill exposure, IAG clarifies it has no net insurance exposure to trade credit policies including those sold through BCC to Greensill entities," _it said.





> _"IAG sold its 50 per cent interest in BCC on 9 April 2019 to Tokio Marine Management with the result of eliminating net exposure to trade credit insurance."_


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 March 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and then, some other factoring in needed
> 
> _Last year, the newly collapsed Greensill engaged in $143 billion of financing for 10 million customers in 175 countries. It had been making a tiding off a complex business model that provided debt coverage to companies who were awaiting payment from their customers, and then sold off this debt in bundles to other investors.
> 
> ...



Yeh.

Right.

Always sue the entity with the most money.



gg


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## basilio (26 April 2021)

The lending program of Greensill to it's clients looks like Madoff gone mad.
Forget loaning against invoices . Consider this.

_A much greater sum, $780m, was borrowed under a more unusual scheme described as “prospective receivables”.

Greensill, it is alleged, presented firm with a list of potential buyers of its coal, asking it to “identify those buyers Plaintiff believed could potentially be buyers of Bluestone’s … coal in the future”. The list included “both existing customers of Bluestone and other entities that were not and might not ever become customers of Bluestone”. The money loaned was against sales that had not yet happened, and might never happen.

Bluestone claims this unusual form of financing was based on its “long-term business prospects”. It says it was led to believe that the loans would be rolled over when they fell due, and that Greensill would not begin calling in the debts until 2023 “at the earliest”._









						Greensill made scramble for cash months before collapse, US court filings claim
					

Moves came as lender was trying to convince investors it was worthy of multibillion-dollar stock market debut, documents allege




					www.theguardian.com


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 April 2021)

IAG is a bit of a worry. 

Unauthorised employees signing off on agreements with Tokio Re and Greensill.

Lawyers worldwide getting picnic tables set up. 

So far IAG seems to have a lid on the can.

But what is in the can?

gg


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## basilio (12 July 2021)

4 Corners is doing a story on the whole Greensill scam. Pure Madoff type stuff that went to  the top of the political tree. The consequences on many international businesses is still unraveling.

Australian billionaire Lex Greensill beguiled the world's rich and powerful. Until it came crashing down​Four Corners
 /
By Stephen Long, Lesley Robinson, Lucy Carter and Elias Clure
Posted 5h ago5 hours ago, updated 54m ago54 minutes ago





 Despite climbing to the top of the British establishment, Lex Greensill would say he was a "farmer".(
Supplied/Newspix
)

A fleet of private jets, unparalleled access to the corridors of power, an honour bestowed by royalty, and stratospheric wealth — Australian Lex Greensill was every inch the corporate titan.

With a company valued in the billions of dollars, Mr Greensill mixed with the rich and powerful on a grand scale, even calling one of the world's richest men his mentor, and a former British prime minister his employee.

It was a lifestyle that a boy from Bundaberg could normally only dream of living.

Yet many Australians had never heard of Lex Greensill until the company he founded came crashing down, sparking one of the biggest international financial scandals since the global financial crisis.

The collapse of his firm, Greensill Capital, has become a scandal in the United Kingdom, where it has prompted multiple parliamentary inquiries and fraud investigations.

Its downfall is threatening the business empire of another billionaire, steel baron Sanjeev Gupta — putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk across the globe, including in Australia.

Four Corners has investigated how companies owned by Mr Greensill and Mr Gupta, both politically connected men of soaring ambition, used financial dark arts to conjure extraordinary amounts of money, seemingly out of nothing.









						How the son of Bundaberg farmer became a billionaire and lost his fortune in scandal
					

A billionaire from Bundaberg mixed with the world's richest and most powerful before losing a fortune. Some say they never bought his story.




					www.abc.net.au


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## divs4ever (23 January 2022)

would anyone like to voice their personal opinions  on IAG  ?? ( pros and cons welcome )

 in the past  i have preferred SUN and QBE ( and still hold both ) so i know the volatility and risks  involved on holding insurer stocks  ( but am not game to consider GMA in the current climate )

 one downside i noted  is no recent franking 

 cheers


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## divs4ever (25 March 2022)

my pick for the April Comp.  is IAG


divs4ever said:


> would anyone like to voice their personal opinions  on IAG  ?? ( pros and cons welcome )
> 
> in the past  i have preferred SUN and QBE ( and still hold both ) so i know the volatility and risks  involved on holding insurer stocks  ( but am not game to consider GMA in the current climate )
> 
> ...




 since nobody has lobbed in a comment in the last two months  , i will guess this doesn't have many current fans 

 i am probably dreaming hoping for a $4 entry-point  ( and MIGHT be flexible on that in the coming month  )

 will aspire to play this in a similar way to my strategy on QBE  , and accumulate in the dips 

 i do not currently hold IAG  ( but would rather dabble here than in health or mortgage insurers )

 this has been a trail of years ( according to the charts ) in the last 5 years  but not so bad compared to the 10 year snap-shot 

 HOWEVER interest rates seem to be on the rise  , and that might be the tailwind  needed for a longer term play ( insurance  is about successfully gambling with the premiums )


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## divs4ever (4 April 2022)

IAG responds to Tokio Marine trade credit update​
IAG acknowledges the announcement by Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. (“Tokio Marine”) today on its
subsidiary BCC Trade Credit Pty Ltd (“BCC”), the Greensill group of companies and its trade credit
policies.
IAG anticipated the claims and potential litigation by the administrators of Greensill or other
claimants seeking confirmation of policy coverage and/or validity of claims in relation to trade credit
policies. IAG and Tokio Marine, through its BCC subsidiary, continue to work together and are
defending these claims and litigation.
In regard to potential exposure to Greensill-related claims and litigation, IAG maintains its position
that it has no net insurance exposure to trade credit policies sold through BCC.
This release has been authorised by the IAG Continuous Disclosure 

=====================================================================

DYOR

i do not hold IAG , but do currently have a buy order in the market ( just not that close to the buying action )


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## peter2 (4 April 2022)

You're not worried by the increasing number and severity of natural disasters making insurance companies pay out more than planned. 
OR
Are you in the group that think insurance rates are going to go up so extravagantly that the companies will be swimming in it if there's less payouts than planned.


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## divs4ever (4 April 2022)

peter2 said:


> You're not worried by the increasing number and severity of natural disasters making insurance companies pay out more than planned.
> OR
> Are you in the group that think insurance rates are going to go up so extravagantly that the companies will be swimming in it if there's less payouts than planned.




 par for the course in insurers 

 accumulate in the dips , might also  be  called carefully buying in the downtrend  ( which is where i think it will go for up to 5 years , because it will be really difficult to invest those premiums  cleverly in that time period , in the current climate  )

 now i will be watching this ( after i buy in )  looking to take SOME cash off the table  when it hits say , $5.50 ( or maybe $6 ) assuming i can buy sub $4.50  ( $4 would be lovely )

 i think this will bounce and twist  around like a bronco at the rodeo  , i am hoping to 'channel trade ' this , like i am doing with QBE ( and less successfully with SUN )

 my aim here is to slowly whittle away at the average cost price  ,  until the div. yield is satisfactory ( but that might take 10 years or more  of watching and trading 

 i am hoping for some opportunity amid the chaos 

 ' set and forget  ' not this baby ( imo ) it will be watching watching watching  with the occasional moment of action


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## divs4ever (4 April 2022)

insurers are basically gamblers , they gamble they can invest the premiums profitably  before there is  a claim on the insured event ( although since they calculate the premiums charged they are more like the bookmaker  than the punter , the insurer has the scale of bets on it's side )


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## UMike (14 October 2022)

Just when I am getting to my Sell price.

"a) The trading halt is requested to enable IAG to consider the impact of today’s determination by the High Court of Australia to dismiss the applications by IAG and the policyholders for special leave to appeal the judgment of the Full Federal Court of Australia in the second business interruption test case handed down on 21 February 2022, including to assess the financial impact.
b) IAG requests that the trading halt remains in place until the earlier of: (1) IAG making an announcement regarding the financial impact of the High Court of Australia determination; and (2) Tuesday 18 October 2022."

FYI


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## basilio (15 October 2022)

I wonder how the effects of the storms and flood damage across Eastern Australia are going to impact on IAG books ?

Can't be good news and it seems we will have floods for the next couple of months


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## divs4ever (15 October 2022)

well , we must be about due  for another cyclone season that bashes Brisbane  and areas further south 

 am not saying it will happen  but these things are periodic 

 ( i hold SUN and QBE )


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