# SE Asian Earthquake Catastrophe - Short term ramifications for stock markets?



## Aussiejeff (27 December 2004)

Sad seasons greetings all.

I think the massive earthquake and subsequent terrible toll across SE Asia yesterday is likely to have some sharp short term negative impact on our sharemarket when it re-opens.

I know this sounds heartless when the lives of millions are being wrenched by this devastating act of nature, but what are you other investors / market players in "safe" Australia thinking about when it comes to responding to a huge event such as this? Wait and see what happens with the markets? Pre-empt any short term slide by setting tight stop losses and re-enter at lower end of the slide (if any?)

In any case, my heart goes out to anyone directly affected by this disaster.

(

AJ


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## crashy (27 December 2004)

I doubt there will be much impact felt in Europe and the U.S. Asian markets may fall, insurance companies may fall, tourist operators also.

8.1 near Antarctica 3 days ago, 8.9 today. Some bozo Seizmologist said when asked about another large quake "oh no, the odds of two large quakes is extremely unlikely...."

now Im no tectonic guru, but if there is the largest quake in 3 years one day, and the largest quake in 40 years 3 days later at the other end of the plate, gee I dunno......might they be related?! How is it that this dude seemed to be unaware of the previous quake?

Are we looking at a 9+ this week somewhere in the Pacific?

Be short the Nikkei me thinks......


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## tech/a (27 December 2004)

I agree there will be little impact.

In 7 days there wont even be a ripple.


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## markrmau (27 December 2004)

Might be a buying opportunity for QAN (which seems to be in an up-trend).


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## tech/a (27 December 2004)

markrmau said:
			
		

> Might be a buying opportunity for QAN (which seems to be in an up-trend).





Well Im obviously missing something!


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## wayneL (27 December 2004)

I watched a program that pointed out that the west coast of USA is potentially tsunami prone, for the same reason that the tsunami occurred in PNG a few years ago.

There is a submarine ledge which may collapse in the event of a major eartquake in the LA region, triggering a huge tsunami...sobering to realise these things can happen in the anglosphere.

Now that would be an event to shake up the portfolio...

...then there is the Canary Islands tsunami scenario which could wipe out the entire east coast of america.

Now, we have a notoriously shakey region off our east coast....

:-0


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## markrmau (27 December 2004)

Qantas might have a temporary drop because they have offered to refund airfares and there will be a drop in travel to affected countries. So it may be possible to pick up qan at a discount. qan is in an up trend which I expect to resume after everyone forgets about this. Then again, perhaps the SP will be unnaffected, or perhaps this will kill the uptrend.


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## RichKid (27 December 2004)

wayneL said:
			
		

> There is a submarine ledge which may collapse in the event of a major eartquake in the LA region, triggering a huge tsunami...sobering to realise these things can happen in the anglosphere.




Tectonic plates are indiscriminate, could strike anywhere at anytime. I heard a siesmologist on ABC news say that another is likely in the SE Asian region- they just don't know when (impossible to predict the timing is what the scientists say, but they can guess where).

My thoughts stock-wise are about the oil and resources programmes in Indonesia and the region. Santos had some recent activity near Indonesia if I recall, haven't heard anythig yet, we'll know on Wednesday if it's affected other co's, especially off-shore programmes or coastal programmes.


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## RichKid (27 December 2004)

Article in SMH saying market to be largely unaffected except for insurers with Asian exposure and perhaps some listed construction co's may benefit. Stressed that Qantas wont be affected as trips only cancelled for terrorist attacks:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Breaking...-market-experts/2004/12/27/1103996486595.html

Personally, I'm not sure. 

I just feel for all those poor people who were lost, the families will be having a tough introduction to the new year. I guess we're lucky over here. 

Most of the local fishing communities must have been wiped out- it's not just resorts out there...


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## markrmau (28 December 2004)

Don't forget that a similar number of people die each day from aids and malaria etc. The only difference is the television footage isn't as exciting.


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## Aussiejeff (28 December 2004)

Well, the morning news shows that the media is only just starting to come to grips with the size of this catastrophe. Initial "official" reports of "hundreds" of deaths have spiralled quickly now over the 24,000+ mark - and that's presumably for only the ones they have found. 10's of thousands are still missing or unaccounted for. Many outlying small tourist resorts haven't even had contact yet. I pray for their survival. 

I think the ramifications for Oz companies heavily involved in tourism and hospitality services in the affected regions are going to be significant. I predict pretty hard economic times ahead for these service providers for quite a while, since many of the tourists that visit those places are regulars who I doubt will want to re-visit any time soon in the future.

Though of course, I hope I'm totally wrong with that prediction.

AJ


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

Well, looks like it hasn't affected the ASX that much, there'll be lots of money being spent on reconstruction soon so some ASX co's will benefit. Good to see the yanks chipping in with cash too, probably end up being a way for them to generate more influence locally and shed some of their bad boy image.

Let's hope there aren't any after shocks and that people recover as quickly as possible.


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## Aussiejeff (31 December 2004)

Amen to that and to the 125,000+ (so far) who died. 

I am gladdened to see the generosity of corporate Australia (who have had a bumper financial year) in donating to the almost incomprehensible task of rehabilitating some of the multitude of victims and affected areas.

Putting it into perspective, about 2-3 times as many have died so far compared to Krakatoa.

It appears to be by far the worst death toll from tsunamis in recorded history.

In the circumstances, have a happy new year if you can.

AJ


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## RichKid (31 December 2004)

Aussiejeff said:
			
		

> I am gladdened to see the generosity of corporate Australia (who have had a bumper financial year) in donating to the almost incomprehensible task of rehabilitating some of the multitude of victims and affected areas.
> AJ




If anyone is considering donating (as most people have) you may find the following useful. I had a look at some of the sites before donating and decided on these few as they appeared to be the most effective, you may not know all the charities below but they are reputable imo (some sent by friends, others via my own searches on the web). You can always search the web to make up your own mind about the best one. 

Donating part of what I earn (whether from stocks or employment) is part of my 'grand plan' and is in line with my values so I hope more people will consider giving to those in need. It'll make you feel better if you haven't done it already and trust me it is money well spent (unlike some of my recent contributions to the stockmarket!). It also puts your profit making and trading in perspective. Even a small amount ($10+ is good but a few hundred or $1000- what is the value of human life??) will help enormously. Sorry to sound like a charity collector (I'm not affiliated with any) but I'm extremely moved by this, especially after hearing about the people in Aceh, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, but they have all sufferred.

www.msf.org.au (Doctors/Medical aid- Asia wide, inclg Aceh)
www.sarvodaya.org (Sri Lankan- local charity)
www.unicef.org.au (UN- children's charity- Asia wide)
www.wfp.org (UN- food- Asia wide)



> From worldvision:
> Latest News
> Friday 31st December 2004
> World Vision raises more than $9 million
> ...


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