# PTM - Platinum Asset Management



## investforwealth (12 April 2007)

Kerr Neilson's boutique funds management company, Platinum Asset Management, lodged its prospectus with the ASX Tuesday with the intention of becoming a publicly listed company.

Many commentators in the market believe Neilson to be one of the finest fund managers this country has ever seen.  With some $22b+ under management, it seems investors, both domestic and foreign, tend to agree.  The returns he has achieved have been at least great, if not extraordinary.  After putting out word that he might be interested in taking on equity partners recently, and rejecting the offers received, it seems that he has now offered all of us a chance to take a stake in Platinum.  Although, not a huge stake, as less than a quarter of the shares on issue will be on offer.

There is a definite key-man risk in Platinum... if Neilson walks away at some stage in the future, it could possibly, and may very well, spell the end of their outstanding performance.  Let's face it, Neilson is Platinum and Platinum is Neilson.

That said, I've already grabbed a copy of the prospectus and pre-registered my interest with CommSec for an allocation.

I'm very interested to see the views of other ASF participants on the PTM float.

Edit:  You can grab a copy of the prospectus from Platinum @ www.platinum.com.au or if you're a CommSec client, thru their IPO Centre.


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## bvbfan (12 April 2007)

$10,000 though for applications.

Still considering applying.


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## Sean K (12 April 2007)

I've held Platinum Asia, Japan and International for some time and have added ocassionally. (Also hold MLC Platinum Global - basically a shaddow of the International Fund) 

The Japan, International and MLC fund have performed poorly the past year and even underperformed the benchmarks because of their exposure to Japan and the Yen, which has had a shocker. They've basically underestimated, or misjudged with timing, the resurgence of Japan. So, my coupla hundred K in these has gone sideways.  Could possibly be the worst performance by Platinum to date. I'm waiting for the inevitable turnaround.

As a holder of the funds I can't see why I would buy the listed vehicle, unless there is some discount to entry. I actually see the listed company as an even more watered down version of the funds. Just another opportunity for fees to be taken out! 

I agree with the key person risk, although he is staying isn't he.


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## investforwealth (12 April 2007)

kennas said:


> As a holder of the funds I can't see why I would buy the listed vehicle, unless there is some discount to entry. I actually see the listed company as an even more watered down version of the funds. Just another opportunity for fees to be taken out!




I guess as the amount of funds under management grows, so do the fees, and so does the value of the company.  It's being listed at a decent PE (17.6)compared to some of its peers, including AMP and Perpetual, which are both above 20 and Challenger at 19.5.



kennas said:


> I agree with the key person risk, although he is staying isn't he.




I'm sure he has no plans to jump ship at this stage.  He's in his late-50's though, and not getting any younger.  At some stage he'll want to give the game away and start enjoying his billions.

That said, he's obviously quite aware that he's the key to PTM's performance, and with a 62% stake in the company, he's probably in no hurry to leave the future of his fortune in anyone else's hands.  I'd obviously be quite concerned if we started to see him sell off any significant portion of his holdings.


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## investforwealth (16 April 2007)

Applications for allocations in the PTM float open tomorrow.  Has anyone else considered their prospectus and have an opinion on whether Platinum will be a good investment?  

I have a feeling that this float will be significantly oversubscribed, but that is just my own lay opinion, and is in no way a suggestion that _*you*_ should subscribe.  As always, DYOR!


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## Sean K (16 April 2007)

investforwealth said:


> Applications for allocations in the PTM float open tomorrow.  Has anyone else considered their prospectus and have an opinion on whether Platinum will be a good investment?
> 
> I have a feeling that this float will be significantly oversubscribed, but that is just my own lay opinion, and is in no way a suggestion that _*you*_ should subscribe.  As always, DYOR!



I know someone at Lonsec, who analyses these things. I'll try and get a research report for the forum. Might have to be via PM. Will be back at you.


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## investforwealth (16 April 2007)

kennas said:


> I know someone at Lonsec, who analyses these things. I'll try and get a research report for the forum. Might have to be via PM. Will be back at you.




Awesome, thanks Kennas! I know I'd certainly appreciate it.


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## Sean K (16 April 2007)

investforwealth said:


> Awesome, thanks Kennas! I know I'd certainly appreciate it.



Lonsec might not do a report on it because it's not big enough.   If they do something he's going to send it to me and I'll let you know.


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## Blumoontrader (19 April 2007)

Don't worry about it....  COMSEC applications are closed... Only opened for one Day!! 

Blumoontrader


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## stoxclimber (19 April 2007)

Jesus Christ!! One day only!!


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## astojic86 (19 April 2007)

I applied yesterday at 9:16am Brisbane time

My money is still in my account, i applied through direct debit CDIA account for $10k worth.

Also applied for my brother but paid for him through Bpay for 10k$.

His money got taken out buy mine did not. Anyone else with my problem that they applied in the morning and money is still in their account?


I applied through commsec. thanks


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## investforwealth (19 April 2007)

astojic86 said:


> I applied yesterday at 9:16am Brisbane time
> 
> My money is still in my account, i applied through direct debit CDIA account for $10k worth.
> 
> ...




I too applied for an allocation (4,000 shares) through CommSec and chose to pay by direct debit from my CDIA.  The money hasn't gone yet.  CommSec usually do their transfers on CDIA accounts around 11pm, so I'm not worried yet, they should take it tonight.


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## Buffettology (19 April 2007)

Im doing my analysis of the company now.  Will try and buy using the form from the prospectus If I think its worth it.  

Use Etrade, so I missed out on any opportunity to buy through Commsec.


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## wealthyshare (19 April 2007)

astojic86 said:


> I applied yesterday at 9:16am Brisbane time
> 
> My money is still in my account, i applied through direct debit CDIA account for $10k worth.
> 
> ...




My money still sitting in my bank account, my first application Identifier last 3 digits was around 500 at 9.04am, second application 9.08am Application Identifier was around 3500, really hot float.


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## UPKA (19 April 2007)

Hi guys, only discovered this forum couple of days ago, and now its time for me to say hi, and drop my first question. 

I cant seem to find their prospectus and the application form, its not on Etrade either, can someone show me the light? give me a direction?

Thanks in advance!


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## UPKA (19 April 2007)

ok.. I found the prospectus on their website, but no application form... or am I blind?


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## investforwealth (20 April 2007)

UPKA said:


> ok.. I found the prospectus on their website, but no application form... or am I blind?




They didn't include a copy of the application with the prospectus, despite what their website says.  Unless you've got funds invested with Platinum, you've probably got zero chance of getting in on this float now.  CommSec kept applications open for only one day, guess it's been very popular.  Will be interesting to see how much CommSec allowed their allocation to be oversubscribed by and how much each of our applications will be reduced by.

Platinum have sent offers to invest in the float to people who have funds invested with them, but won't make offers to the general public.  There's another small broker involved, but unless you're a client of theirs already, they're unlikely to let you make an application.

I don't think anyone realised this would become subscribed so quickly... guess the best you can hope for is that they won't start trading at too much of a premium to the subscription price... of course, I hope they skyrocket!


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## UPKA (20 April 2007)

investforwealth said:


> They didn't include a copy of the application with the prospectus, despite what their website says.  Unless you've got funds invested with Platinum, you've probably got zero chance of getting in on this float now.  CommSec kept applications open for only one day, guess it's been very popular.  Will be interesting to see how much CommSec allowed their allocation to be oversubscribed by and how much each of our applications will be reduced by.
> 
> Platinum have sent offers to invest in the float to people who have funds invested with them, but won't make offers to the general public.  There's another small broker involved, but unless you're a client of theirs already, they're unlikely to let you make an application.
> 
> I don't think anyone realised this would become subscribed so quickly... guess the best you can hope for is that they won't start trading at too much of a premium to the subscription price... of course, I hope they skyrocket!




Thanks for the info, I'll see if I can get a form from work as we use alot of their products, hope I'm not too late...


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## schueym99 (25 April 2007)

I have been told that Comsec will direct debit accounts on 27/4/07.

In relation to the float, I have seen an article in the intelligent investor that says subscribe and then buy on market up to, wait for it, $7.50! (50% premium).

No wonder it has closed so quickly.  I have never seen intelligent investor recommend a float before, let alone buying on market at a 50% premium.

Brace for take off if you are in on this float!


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## UPKA (26 April 2007)

i think only a small proportion is offered to comsec clients, because our company js received our prospectus this week and most of our platinum clients as well, i think majority of the shares will be reserved for the current clients or support group (e.g. dealers).
if its oversubscribed already they wouldnt be sending out the prospectus anymore


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## investforwealth (26 April 2007)

schueym99 said:


> I have been told that Comsec will direct debit accounts on 27/4/07.




They took the money from our CDIA account on Tuesday evening.



UPKA said:


> i think only a small proportion is offered to comsec clients, because our company js received our prospectus this week and most of our platinum clients as well, i think majority of the shares will be reserved for the current clients or support group (e.g. dealers).
> if its oversubscribed already they wouldnt be sending out the prospectus anymore




I did think that it would be significantly oversubscribed.  I applied for the maximum 4,000 shares and expected to be allocated less than that, but I was quite prepared and would be extremely happy to be allocated the entire 4,000.  

CommSec seems to give preferences to clients who have participated in previous floats they have sponsored, and gives further preference to clients who have held their previous allocations for some time after listing.  Which makes sense if they're underwriting it and end up with a bucketload of stock themselves, not that they would have had to take up any they didn't want on this one!


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## lamadas (29 April 2007)

Thanks for this disscussion on Platinum
Can anybody tell me what is so different between the current listed PMC (Platinum Capital) and the upcoming Platinum Asset Management float?
I have read some reports about PMC being overpriced at $2.20 and seeing as the new float looks like being $5 is this an indication of paying too much? or are they chalk and cheese?
thanks


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## investforwealth (29 April 2007)

Aegis Equities Research, a well respected, independent firm of over 20 analysts was commissioned to prepare a report on the Platinum float.  It's well worth a read for anyone who's interested in PTM.

I couldn't upload it here because the file size was too large, but you can grab a copy from my website http://members.dodo.com.au/~csrm/.  There's a link to it on the front page.


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## louie (8 May 2007)

Comsec has done its allocation. Need to check online.

Any one thats ordered $10,000 worth, got all their allocation.


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## Sean K (9 May 2007)

Lonsec are saying take the allocation too. 

I'll try and get a research report up here tomorrow, or will be able to email it out.


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## ozambersand (9 May 2007)

louie said:
			
		

> Comsec has done its allocation. Need to check online.
> 
> Any one thats ordered $10,000 worth, got all their allocation




Louie can you tell me where you got that info from as Commsec just says shareholders will be notified on 16th and their holdings transferred on 17th.

Would be interested to see how much you get if you applied for the maximum amount.


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## louie (10 May 2007)

ozambersand said:


> Louie can you tell me where you got that info from as Commsec just says shareholders will be notified on 16th and their holdings transferred on 17th.
> 
> Would be interested to see how much you get if you applied for the maximum amount.




Log on to Comsec, if you applied through them or took an allocation from them. 
Then on the left hand side click under Position Statements and click on "Holdings". 
Should come up with PTMZZ and the number of shares you applied for or allocated with.

I think anything over 20,000 shares got scaled back.


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## UPKA (10 May 2007)

Are any of you guys Platinum clients? I work for a financial services firm, we've been sent a letter that all platinum clients and advisors will be allocated the minimum amount if applied for. I don't know how that's gonna work, may be they set aside a portion for Comsec n Bell Porter applicants, and the rest to their clients n support stuff?


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## carstev (11 May 2007)

I've been an investor in Platinum virtually since day one and when I called them this arvo they said there is a chance I may get a ZERO allocation???
Anyone know any more about this??


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## ozambersand (12 May 2007)

I logged onto Commsec as you suggested and it is not showing any shares, so I hope that Zero allocation is not the explanation!


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## ozambersand (14 May 2007)

OK Commsec has listed my Platinum Asset Management allocation which looks like half of what I ordered.

Better than none I suppose!!!  

From the Commsec site:



> The transfer of Shares to successful applicants is expected to occur on 16 May 2007. Holding statements are expected to be dispatched on 17 May 2007. Shares are expected to commence trading on the ASX on 23 May 2007 under the ASX code PTM.


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## lamadas (14 May 2007)

ozambersand said:


> OK Commsec has listed my Platinum Asset Management allocation which looks like half of what I ordered.
> 
> Better than none I suppose!!!
> 
> From the Commsec site:




would it be rude of me to ask what you requested or maybe... was it above 20000 shares.... as I had heard that above this amount the allocation would be reduced.


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## ozambersand (14 May 2007)

Yes it is rude, but hey it's a fair question.  

I applied for $20,000 and looks like I got $10,000 (half).


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## jkool (22 May 2007)

Listing tomorrow. Who is gonna just flog it off once it reaches some decent levels...I dont know say $6...on the first day?

I stay on the sidelines for this one and here http://www.soundofgold.com/2007/05/22/any-value-left-in-the-platinum-float/ is why.

Good luck

jkool


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## bse (23 May 2007)

ptm opened at 8.50, did anybody buy from the market? is it worth buying at this price? let me know ideas? i didnt get to buy from the initial float so was planning to get from the market. but now at this rate of 8.50 odd .....


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## stoxclimber (23 May 2007)

I was crazy about this float at $5 and the criticisms posted in that post are laughable..at 8.50 I think its touch and go. Not the best but you could do worse. Above 8.75ish id be hesistant, but we should see institutional interest over the next few weeks


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## Buffettology (23 May 2007)

Damn, to own this, you would have made a killing. I tried to get in at the last minute, but didnt get an allocation.

Some other analysts at my work got in, and left work at 10am.  Too excited to work, they got a large quantity as they were previous share holders in PTM, and are now a lot richer young men!


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## 3 veiws of a secret (23 May 2007)

Twice I bought and sold this share today,not often have I done this on  a first day listing. But for all the euphoria in the price, personally I would not be suprised to see this share slide/retract over the next few days or even next week. I hope so, the Insto's might then delve into this carcass. I expect I will try and snatch another parcel, for long term holding. To those still holding it must give you a warm feeling........  5%+ annual return hmmmmmmmmmm?????


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## telstrareg (23 May 2007)

The bastards didn't send me or my parents the prospectus as promissed. When I heard the days gains I think I could honstly have walked in the front door and throttled someone.

F**CK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## UPKA (23 May 2007)

telstrareg said:


> The bastards didn't send me or my parents the prospectus as promissed. When I heard the days gains I think I could honstly have walked in the front door and throttled someone.
> 
> F**CK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




U wont get them unless u r already a platinum client or associated with them in some way. Unless u applied on the first with with comsec or bellporter. I work as a financial planner, and we use platinum funds, even then I've only been allocated 700 shares.


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## jkool (23 May 2007)

stoxclimber said:


> I was crazy about this float at $5 and the criticisms posted in that post are laughable..




Laughable? Can you pls elaborate?

Is it because the price jumped up so much on the first day? Good for all the trading folks out there who got in early but that is not the game my post is referring to. 

Thanks
jkool


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## jkool (24 May 2007)

Another set of numbers to consider:

PTM's last year's EPS (the only known hence imho lack of historical data): $0.33
Floated at: $5.00
Hence your yrly theoretical return is: $0.33 / $5.00 = 6.6%pa (before tax; obviously the smart investment banking folks priced the float in line with returns on any other cash term deposit)

First day close situation? $ 0.33 / $8.80 = 3.75%pa (in other words P/E around 26.7)

Mind you, for what I know the 2006 result was PTM's best ever right? But say that Kerr Neilson keeps his magical touch and manages the extraordinary: DOUBLE the earnings next year. 
So EPS would become $ 0.66 against the price (lets be nice to him and say the initial excitement wears off) of $7.5 a share. Hence an average punter is looking at a pretax profit of 8.8%pa. 
Even if the price fell back to the float value of $5 your pretax gains would be 13.2%pa (not even deducting the fees the fund is going to charge you). Or am I missing something? Where is the 17.3% I was promised and would love to get?

But than you may decide that the price is just going to go up and up because...I dunno....people just love the guy. 
Well in that case all bets are off and whoever holds the shares latest loses his shirt.

I am definately not going to win any kind of popularity contest here thats for sure 

Good luck
jkool


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## stoxclimber (24 May 2007)

> Is it because the price jumped up so much on the first day? Good for all the trading folks out there who got in early but that is not the game my post is referring to.




No, I've publicly posted before about how its a great buy [at $5].

Let's analyse the criticisms one by one: 



> The fund was only started in 1995 and where had the market had any down year ever since 1995?




Firstly, there have been down years, 2002 as the author notably points out. #2, Platnium's International Fund is INTERNATIONAL..looking at the performance of the All Ords is ridiculous, there's a relevant benchmark provided there and PTM is well exceeding it.



> 12 years of historical performance not good enough
> I may appear to be too prudent about this, however I don’t really consider its promoted stellar performance of only 12 past years sufficient enough to put my money in it for the long haul.




So how many years is appropriate? Would 15 do it? 20? 30? It's ridiculous to speak of a certain number. 



> Listing on historical highs
> As any of you would probably know, in the last few weeks the ASX has been breaking its historical records on almost daily basis. Just how long this run can continue and, more importantly, how can any manager keep on generating similarly stellar from such a high cost basis are the questions an intelligent investor surely needs to ask himself.



a) not a relevant criticism of PTM's OPERATIONAL BUSINESS
b) PTM is long/short
c) PTM isn't ASX only

Total misunderstanding of PTM's business.



> Buying IPO = higher risk




No evidence.  Silly blank statement to make. 



> Fees fees fees



PTM remains 75% owned by staff. Those staff are also paid as a result of the fees they geneerate from performance. I don't see how anyone could think that after PTM unlock 25% of the equity of the business, they will raise fees to such a high rate that it will cause everyone to withdraw their money, resulting in a) there not being any fees to pay wages with b) making their 75% equity interest worthlesss. 

With all due respect to the author, the author has not understood the PTM business in the slightest, and also has greatly misunderstood the structure of the new listed company.

The reasons why PTM is a great buy are:

a) exposure to the superannuation industry, obviously one of strong and reliable growth
b) exposure to general global equity markets, which have over 200 years exhibited strong growth
c) barriers to entry due to PTM's very strong brand image [highly respected at the major superannuation houses e.g. perpetual]

Does this mean its worth $9? Up to you. But at $5 (which is only a small premium on a PERPETUAL DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL at 12% WACC, also consider imputation credits) it was a no brainer.

I didn't think an asset management company would open at a 70% premium though..I was hoping to pick up at 6-6.50 as I missed out on the IPO.


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## jkool (24 May 2007)

Finally some arguments, thank you.

So:


stoxclimber said:


> Firstly, there have been down years, 2002 as the author notably points out. #2, Platnium's International Fund is INTERNATIONAL..looking at the performance of the All Ords is ridiculous, there's a relevant benchmark provided there and PTM is well exceeding it.




One single down year! Yes ok the fund is international and the article should perhaps show MCSI World Net Index however the number I see thrown around is "its benchmark's performance was about 8% average". Not apples and apples but really not that far from All Ords after all.   



> So how many years is appropriate? Would 15 do it? 20? 30? It's ridiculous to speak of a certain number.



 10 years would be ok if it was complete. I dont think that a series of % returns alone is sufficient enough. 
What about a complete 10 years summary of income statements as provided by number of listed companies in their annual reports?



> a) not a relevant criticism of PTM's OPERATIONAL BUSINESS
> b) PTM is long/short
> c) PTM isn't ASX only
> Total misunderstanding of PTM's business.



I get it. They do short selling and they do overseas markets. They should make some profits regardless of which way the market is headed. 
Yet they are listing at a time when everyone is so hyped up about the record breaking market levels. Well ok, a smart business decision of course, now they will get the best price for their shares, but it is not a shopping time for me. I realize though that we are all different.



> No evidence. Silly blank statement to make.



Well at least to me, an IPO without sufficient credible records I can look at (the records may be out there maybe I just did not look hard enough, I certainly dont see them in the PDS though as per your second qoute), is investing blind folded.



> PTM remains 75% owned by staff. Those staff are also paid as a result of the fees they geneerate from performance. I don't see how anyone could think that after PTM unlock 25% of the equity of the business, they will raise fees to such a high rate that it will cause everyone to withdraw their money, resulting in a) there not being any fees to pay wages with b) making their 75% equity interest worthlesss.



Sure they need to pay their staff. But how many fees is enough? Why not instead of preset values a share in profits once they exceed their benchmark? IMHO the tricky forest of fees reminds me a mobile phone contract and hence does not really help to build much confidence. That goes for PTM as well as for any other fund.



> Does this mean its worth $9? Up to you. But at $5 (which is only a small premium on a PERPETUAL DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL at 12% WACC, also consider imputation credits) it was a no brainer.



No brainer for the short term? Sure I acknowledged that in the last paragraph. But whatabout long term? But I guess not many people is interested in distant future now is it? 



> I didn't think an asset management company would open at a 70% premium though..I was hoping to pick up at 6-6.50 as I missed out on the IPO.



And thats confusing me most. The normally conservative folks over at Intelligent Investor valued this off the bat as buy upto $7.50 ie from what I see thats around 22 times earnings. How did they come to that figure? By comparing to Perpetual or other funds as you do? They dont really say much on that.

Just one last note: I am not saying that I am right, I am simply trying to understand.

Cheers
jkool


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## stoxclimber (24 May 2007)

jkool
quick post as im about to hit the sack

Next year forecast dividiend of 32.5c (per share).
Note this is 46.43c if one includes franking credits.

PTM's income is derived from fees, which is a function of FUM...FUM has two main growth components:
i) growth in superannuation funds
ii) growth in equity markets

Superannuation is clearly a growth area, risks to growth here are that PTM could lose its favour from the super houses, competition is not that big a worry to long term growth IF PTM maintains its prestigious brand image.., given the super fund of funds providers are in love with PTM, it seems unlikely although sustained poor performance (probably 4-5years) would change that

Equity markets clearly grow long term, FUM grows in line with them..

So if we just use a very simple Gordon's growth DDM, what sort of WACC is appropriate? Having an rf of ~5.5% and a market risk premium of 6%, beta should be slightly higher than market considering the operating leverage, say 1.2 as a rough estimate, gives a discount rate of 12.7%

Appropriate long term growth rate? Needs a probability weighting of poor performance, but I can't see anything under 4% being justifiable if we look at long term inflation at ~2.5%. 

So if we ignore the forecast strong growht in PTM over the immediate business cycle, and just look at a Gordon's growth DDM, say a growth rate of 5%, gives a value of $6.02. 

So the issue was clearly underpriced at $5, hence why I was so enamoured with it and consider the proposition that there was no value in the float at $5 ridiculous.


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## lamadas (24 May 2007)

telstrareg said:


> The bastards didn't send me or my parents the prospectus as promissed. When I heard the days gains I think I could honstly have walked in the front door and throttled someone.
> 
> F**CK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




yeah I know I had several conversations with them about my mum not receiving a prospectus (as she holds units in Plat int'l) and they even prosmised to send her an express mail one which didn't arrive and so in the end I had to find a generic application form and enter her personal code on it and personally hand deliver it on the final day.....as it turned out though she only received 10% of what she applied for ...... sorry to hear about your experience as well.......but it appears most punters would not have received more than $10000 worth anyway... better than nothing but still a long way off expectations.


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## jkool (24 May 2007)

stoxclimber said:


> Firstly, there have been down years, 2002 as the author notably points out. #2, Platnium's International Fund is INTERNATIONAL..looking at the performance of the All Ords is ridiculous, there's a relevant benchmark provided there and PTM is well exceeding it.



More to the benchmarks to one's investment (this is just a cut&paste from my post on another good aussie investing forum; yes I have been copping some flak left and right since posting the article  )
Yup they do invest mainly overseas but let me ask few things:
- are they australian fund?
- are they listing on the ASX?
- isn't it upto the investor himself to decide benchmarks for his/her portfolio not leave upto anyone else to dictate?
- whatabout for the years to come? how do you compare PTM share's performance in relation to other ASX floated companies you would otherwise consider putting your money in?

In other words, and with all due respect, as far as I am concerned PTM can measure their performance in comparison to yearly rainfalls in Sahara desert, but an individual aussie investor whos only investing backyard is the local market may perhaps consider ASX index as a more apropriate benchmark for his/her portfolio?

Thanks

jkool


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## greenfs (24 May 2007)

3 veiws of a secret said:


> Twice I bought and sold this share today,not often have I done this on  a first day listing. But for all the euphoria in the price, personally I would not be suprised to see this share slide/retract over the next few days or even next week. I hope so, the Insto's might then delve into this carcass. I expect I will try and snatch another parcel, for long term holding. To those still holding it must give you a warm feeling........  5%+ annual return hmmmmmmmmmm?????




My advisor says anything north of $6.50 is over the top. By the way, the painter has finished today an your brickwork now looks lovely.


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## stoxclimber (24 May 2007)

jkool said:


> Yup they do invest mainly overseas but let me ask few things:
> - are they australian fund?




That's arguable, does it matter where the fund is INCORPORATED or where it INVESTS? Where you file the papers and have your office located when you invest globally just doesn't matter. 

It's like saying a Japanese fund which invests exclusively in the All Ords, but is based in Japan, is doing a good job if it manages to beat the Nikkei (notwithstanding a major underperformance of the All Ords). Come on.  



> - isn't it upto the investor himself to decide benchmarks for his/her portfolio not leave upto anyone else to dictate?




Yes and no. Only certain benchmarks make rational sense - would it make sense to compare PTM's return to the return on government bonds? Would it make sense to compare NAB to the return on a resources portfolio? Comparisons should be on a comparable risk basis. 



> - whatabout for the years to come? how do you compare PTM share's performance in relation to other ASX floated companies you would otherwise consider putting your money in?




With respect, you do not seem to know many fundamental concepts of finance. Relevant in this case is that higher risk = higher return, and your expected return on an investment should be as a function of its risk [hence why comparisons should be made on a comparable risk basis]. 

If the All Ords was made up of companies like that which PTM invests in, and was a long/short index, then it would be appropriate to consider it as a benchmark. But is this the case? 

Do you expect funds which invest in Australian Small Ords to compare to the ASX50? Do you expect investments in the Resources sector to compare to the Healthcare sector? 

It has to be comparable. Your fixation on physical location does not relate to comparability. I cannot put it any stronger.


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## Buffettology (24 May 2007)

A friend of mines brother works for Maquarie Bank, he doesnt beleive the stock is worth $6.  

I personally, think fair value is around $6-7, maybe higher in the current market of overvaluation.  

So I think this will consolidate somewhere between $8-9 for a while.

I wouldnt buy personally at current levels.

Better returns out there.

SDG at 3.40 today, target of 3.55-3.60.


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## jkool (24 May 2007)

stoxclimber said:


> That's arguable, does it matter where the fund is INCORPORATED or where it INVESTS? Where you file the papers and have your office located when you invest globally just doesn't matter.
> 
> It's like saying a Japanese fund which invests exclusively in the All Ords, but is based in Japan, is doing a good job if it manages to beat the Nikkei (notwithstanding a major underperformance of the All Ords). Come on.
> 
> Yes and no. Only certain benchmarks make rational sense - would it make sense to compare PTM's return to the return on government bonds? Would it make sense to compare NAB to the return on a resources portfolio? Comparisons should be on a comparable risk basis.




All right lets look at it this way - Sure for PTM's comparison to similar international funds it will be best to use some kind of word index. 
HOWEVER
In second stage (once I chose the best performing fund) and from the point of an investor I want to compare investing in best fund with opportunities available elsewhere within my investing playground (for me ie. Australia).

Ultimatelly there is number of investing oportunities available around which all compete for your investing money amongst themselves. YOU as an investor decide (regardless if an opportunity is stock, shares, bonds, whatever) which one is best for you based on a net after tax % retun or not?

Isn't the ultimate goal of investing "to finish with more dough than you had at the start"? So be that fund or stock or whatever ultimately they are all equal and I as an investor compare them based on just that - how much do they potentially bring into my pocket.

Now if you agree with me so far the rest should be a breeze 

If I as an investor only invest in Australia (for any reason; ie. not confident go overseas, not enough money to venture there or just being patriotic...whatever) which I think is the case of majority individual Aussie investors, than I compare all my returns (from ANY of my australian investments) to yearly returns from ASX/All Ords indexes. 

Sure the situation would be different if I was investing some money in UK, something in US, Japan and China say. Than perhaps I would compare my returns with some World Index also. 



> With respect, you do not seem to know many fundamental concepts of finance. Relevant in this case is that higher risk = higher return, and your expected return on an investment should be as a function of its risk [hence why comparisons should be made on a comparable risk basis].




Fundamental concepts such as? Risk / return relationship? Well I heard it once or twice before  

And you say 
"expected return on an investment should be as a function of its risk" ?

I much more prefer to believe the mantra which says that sucessful investing does not require anything more than basic algebra. 



> If the All Ords was made up of companies like that which PTM invests in, and was a long/short index, then it would be appropriate to consider it as a benchmark. But is this the case?
> 
> Do you expect funds which invest in Australian Small Ords to compare to the ASX50? Do you expect investments in the Resources sector to compare to the Healthcare sector?
> 
> It has to be comparable. Your fixation on physical location does not relate to comparability. I cannot put it any stronger.




As per above. To me all the investment oportunities are equal as they all compete for my funds, hence I use my own yardstick I deem most appropriate. 

To your physical location remark - hypoteticaly: say that after listing on ASX the PTM share will grow in value around 10% in the next year but All Ords actually achieve 16%. Are you going to be satisfied with your PTM shares performance if their MSCI World index finishes the year only 5% up (ie. Australia outperforms the World)?   

Let me know what you think.

Thanks
jkool


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## TheRage (24 May 2007)

Jkool and Stoxclimber it is good to finally see some strong fundamental arguments about a stock and not crap illiogical rampings. Personally I have not researched this stock so I do not have an opion or valuation but I enjoyed reading both of your cases. Keep it up and lets have some more discussions like this on other stocks.


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## Buffettology (24 May 2007)

Jkool is an investor, in "given" stocks.  Guys like him, make decent money off little risk.  Taken from the master of investments.  I think what he is saying is very logical and obvious, but its very different to a trader, who beleives in risk V reward and the fact that both are somehow directly correlated.  When obviously, there is very low risk, with very good rewards of 15-20% compunded annually over the long-term out there. 

From pure excitement, it was obvious this stock was going to skyrocket, but I personally have told other analysts from my work I would sell, as I dont see it going too much higher than $9.  But hey, thats just me.  One analyst I know beleives it will break $10 in the near future.  Its all a matter of opinion, but I definately see where Jkool is coming from.


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## Judd (24 May 2007)

PTM is not a managed fund!  The discussion appears to assume that it is.  PTM is the management arm of the funds that it manages, ie the blokes that clip 1.2% of the funds under its management whether they go up or whther they go down.  How TF do you think Kier Nielson and others got so bloody wealthy?


PTM similar in some ways to TRG.


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## stoxclimber (24 May 2007)

Judd, I think myself and jkool are essntially treating an investment in PTM as a proxy investment in their fund, as the earnings is strongly linked to fund performance. 

jkool:

[Your line of argument does implicitly assume that the Australian market has a higher level of expected return than equity markets globally; very debatable.., but I will proceed with that assumption]



> In second stage (once I chose the best performing fund) and from the point of an investor I want to compare investing in best fund with opportunities available elsewhere within my investing playground (for me ie. Australia).




Not exactly. You're missing a key step:
1. Decide what you want to have exposure to (global equities, ASX, resources, etc.) <- 
2. Find the best possible investment that gives exposure to that risk factor. 

If you want to invest in the All Ords, and return All Ords index returns, then you wouldn't look at a global equity fund. 



> Isn't the ultimate goal of investing "to finish with more dough than you had at the start"? So be that fund or stock or whatever ultimately they are all equal and I as an investor compare them based on just that - how much do they potentially bring into my pocket.




The key factor you are missing here is risk. If you follow your line of reasoning, no-one should invest in bonds, no-one should leave their cash in the bank earning interest, as those investment options are expected to leave you with less $ vis-a-vis a equity investment. This is what I mean by the risk-return trade-off..the more risk you are taking, the higher the return. So its apples and oranges to compare PTM [who probably have a pretty well diversified portfolio, although I don't know for sure obviously..] to a commodity heavy index like the All Ords, unless they have the same level of risk! And I very much doubt a long/short fund will have the same level of risk as a pure index..


Re: your example, yes, I would be. Let me rephrase your example with the rism element included that I'm talking about above:

Would you be happy investing in the All Ords index earning expected 16%p.a bearing a 25%p.a. standard deviation (for arguments sake) if over that time Paladin expected 25% but had a 70%p.a. standard deviation? 

Isn't it apples and oranges to compare?


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## jkool (24 May 2007)

stoxclimber said:


> Your line of argument does implicitly assume that the Australian market has a higher level of expected return than equity markets globally; very debatable.., but I will proceed with that assumption




No I am not assuming that Aus market has higher return potential. I am assuming that for an average aussie investor the local Australian investments are (more or less) where most of his/her investment funds are tied up. So I dont see why should they use any other benchmark than some reasonable local sharemarket index on the lines of All Ords, ASX 200 etc. 

More to the point if I put 10% of my money into PTM and leave 90% in Australian portfolio of stock and property (for argument's sake) how do I know if I had invested well? When 100% of my money outperforms my chosen aus stock based benchmark. Why would I measure 90% of my money with one yardstick and 10% with another? 



> Not exactly. You're missing a key step:
> 1. Decide what you want to have exposure to (global equities, ASX, resources, etc.) <-
> 2. Find the best possible investment that gives exposure to that risk factor.



1. Well I think that mine same as everyone's decision is fairly simple - Put the money into an investment vehicle, which one believes will guarantees him (based on some analysis) the highest cumulative return on his investment and safety of the invested principle.

2. Of course some investment are riskier than others. For example for my long term portfolio I assumed PTM even at $5 too risky (mainly due to the lack of sufficient data proving its past performance). I repeat: for my long term portfolio. I don't daytrade. 

But the way I go about assessing risk appears to be completely different to the way you do it. 

And to your point that


> If you want to invest in the All Ords, and return All Ords index returns, then you wouldn't look at a global equity fund.



I must just say that to me investing that way is just somehow upside down process. 

First I look for the investment opportunity (and as you can see above I am very liberal on those) regardless of its field or speciality. Why would I limit myself to only some section/industry? But once I am reasonably happy with it THAN i want to see how does it perform over time in realation to other opportunities I could have taken. And that is when my benchmark comes in.

I will look at a global equity fund (or anything else) and run it through my (perhaps rather prudent) "analysis" as it comes into my attention. Once analysed I decide if that is the right opportunity for me. Not the other way around as you appear to be suggesting.



> The key factor you are missing here is risk. If you follow your line of reasoning, no-one should invest in bonds, no-one should leave their cash in the bank earning interest, as those investment options are expected to leave you with less $ vis-a-vis a equity investment. This is what I mean by the risk-return trade-off..the more risk you are taking, the higher the return. So its apples and oranges to compare PTM [who probably have a pretty well diversified portfolio, although I don't know for sure obviously..] to a commodity heavy index like the All Ords




Bonds/Cash: Long term yes, short term no way. As you know in the long term stock outperformes bonds and cash hands down. However in the short run bonds and stock can be more rewarding. 

Eg. If one reasonably believes that the ASX markets at 6,300 (or thereabouts) can within a year go upto say 6,700 (I am not sayin it is or it is not  ) than thats more than 6%ish percent a bank is offering you and you money is best kept in the stock. However if one conludes that such level is unreasonable than put it in the savings account. See? Simple algebra 

Risk: You probably measure it by some beta or other deviation I dont believe in but that is just me. If it works for you, you better stick to it. 
I measure the risk by the records of past performance, earning, growth, debt levels and the like you probably dont believe in. If I dont have such data (aka PTM case) I have nothing to go from so I give it a miss. If I am not reasonably sure about putting my money somewhere, I am not afraid to pass (ie. PTM case).

Another clue that our approach to risk is fundamentaly different I can see from your 







> compare PTM [who probably have a pretty well diversified portfolio, although I don't know for sure obviously..]



 statement. I dont think I could seriously invest into a company about which I dont have such a basic info.

I hope you understand by now that I am not trying to dispute investin in PTM as oposed to investing in All Ords index. I am suggesting to use the All Ords results a measurement or tool to help me see more clearly if the PTM performs good or bad. Hence I think the risk and deviation of All Ords is irrelevant. 



> Re: your example, yes, I would be. Let me rephrase your example with the rism element included that I'm talking about above:
> 
> Would you be happy investing in the All Ords index earning expected 16%p.a bearing a 25%p.a. standard deviation (for arguments sake) if over that time Paladin expected 25% but had a 70%p.a. standard deviation?
> 
> Isn't it apples and oranges to compare?




Again to me the risk or deviation (once I have analysed it "my way" and once I am happy with the result) during the term of the investment is irrelevant. So disregarding that (and given that your suggested Paladin with made it through my analysis toolbox sucessfuly) I would be seeing apples and apples and of course rushing in to get as much of Paladin as possible and 

I think we will get bit closer to our fundamental dispute if I say, and it may come as a little shock to you, that to me the share price deviation during the year is not representing the risk of my investment. If I can (as an outcome of my analysis) reasonably believe that my investment will produce 25% within the year (to stick with your numbers) than they can close the ASX down for a year. Once I purchased on the level guaranteeing 25% I am not interested in the price anymore. Why would I? I know there will be 25% on the end so anything between is irrelevant.

As I see it you stoxclimber are technical analyst whereas I go by fundamentals. Our argument have been going on betw. these investor categories since ever. We may consider to make ourselves a favor and just move on. I just hope that by now you can see my arguments as pointed out in the article may not be all that laughable after all 

Cheers

jkool


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## stoxclimber (25 May 2007)

I agree that we are not making much headway so its probably time to go back to making money, but I do want to address a few main points for anyone who may be reading along [this will be my last post, most likely]

For anyone reading, I again emphasise that the true basis on which the comparison on investment performance is made is between investments of equal risk; one doesn't compare a market neutral hedge fund with a levered investment in the All Ords, for example. 



> Eg. If one reasonably believes that the ASX markets at 6,300 (or thereabouts) can within a year go upto say 6,700 (I am not sayin it is or it is not ) than thats more than 6%ish percent a bank is offering you and you money is best kept in the stock. However if one conludes that such level is unreasonable than put it in the savings account. See? Simple algebra




You simply MUST measure risk as a function of standard deviation (and perhaps with 3rd and 4th moments as appropriate), it is NOT just simple algebra. Even when you conclude the fair value of the ASX index in one year is 6,700 (cf 6300 today), you surely must recognise there is a probability distribution around that number for the infinite number of random factors that influence the stock price. You CANNOT simply say that your investment has no risk because it is worth 25% more than what you are paying, etc. The amount of volatility affects your confidence in the spread around the value.



> I measure the risk by the records of past performance, earning, growth, debt levels and the like you probably dont believe in.




The obvious problem with past performance is the past. You don't need 10 years of past financial statements to invest in a company; it likely includes inaccurate information not reflective of the business now. I do not meticulously sit down and compute standard deviations and betas on an investmest, but when I'm reading through company annoucements I do have a rough guideline in my head about how risky the company is; in particular, what each division is and what the main risk factors are there; and I look to see if the market is overpricing the risk (for a large company, for smaller companies i just don't believe in rational pricing).



And lastly, I can HARDLY say that I am technical...


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## 3 veiws of a secret (25 May 2007)

greenfs said:


> My advisor says anything north of $6.50 is over the top. By the way, the painter has finished today an your brickwork now looks lovely.




Well it looks like the PTM epiphany is ringing true ,I hope the slide continues reeling at $8 and below......When not a holder of a stock I need the share to drop,but when holding the stock I need the urge for it to rise. No theories from me -just hunting 
"Greenfs what brick in particular are you refering too" :bricks1:


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## jkool (25 May 2007)

stoxclimber:
I enjoyed our conversation and I hope we entertained few people around here but lets just move on than. 

After all I recognize that there is many different ways to investing success and anyone who finds one suitable and profitable enough should stick to it. 

Since the article was written by myself, on my blog and reflecting my investing approach, it is obviously biased accordingly 

Good luck

jkool


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## investforwealth (3 June 2007)

Seems as though there's a fair bit of support for PTM around the $8.00 mark.  I had expected to see it slide back towards $7.00, perhaps $7.50 tops, and would still be happy with the performance of my $5 investment at those levels.

With Kerr Nielsen himself offloading $25M worth of his stock in the first week, it is perhaps an indication that he believes those highs the stock reached then won't be breached again in the near future.  It wasn't like he needed the cash, but then again the gallery he and Judith are putting together is probably costing them a pretty penny.

egoli recently published a "Fact Sheet" on Platinum that I thought may be of interest... http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliStoryPage.asp?PageID={293F8CF8-5AD8-4565-B20E-1F98E6EE3AA5}&Section=StockIdeas


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## Ken (3 September 2007)

PTM is on the hit list for a number of fundmanagers.

I am onboard.

I didn't get on the float, but at around $6.30 i though it was fair value for the long term.

As far as i know they have a good track record and $22 billion worth of assets.


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## Ken (3 September 2007)

For those interested alot of superannuation companies are accumulating PTM.

Long term stock I think any weakness in PTM must be seen as a buying opportunity.

The dividend is 5% and from my research they dont have liquidity issues


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## Ken (23 October 2007)

Does anyone have a view on PTM.

How do they compare to a Babcock and brown when they first floated???

Is it the same sort of thing.

PTM havent started willing and dealing, or making aquisitions.

Is that there style?

At $5.70? How are we looking?  

Where do they get their revenues from?

If the markert goes up how come PTM goes down???

What is the story here?


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## michael_selway (23 October 2007)

Ken said:


> Does anyone have a view on PTM.
> 
> How do they compare to a Babcock and brown when they first floated???
> 
> ...




It should be worth about $5.00 currently imo, looking at the EPS and DPS forecasts etc

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.3 34.1 37.5 41.9 
DPS 0.0 29.6 32.9 36.7 *

thx

MS


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## stoxclimber (23 October 2007)

Ken said:


> How do they compare to a Babcock and brown when they first floated???
> Is it the same sort of thing.
> PTM havent started willing and dealing, or making aquisitions.
> Is that there style?
> ...




I'll be polite, but seriously...you obviously know nothing about the company so for your money's sake, I worry, since you're basically gambling.

Platnium is a long/short equity funds manager. They will not acquire any company. I like it at $5.70 but there's better places to put your money in my opinion. They get their revenue from fees charged on funds management. It's been going down because a) there's been a fair few withdrawals from their funds of late b) they aren't in the bull market stocks basically. Good stock to have if the market tanks and we're in a bear market for a while.


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## Rainmaker2000 (24 October 2007)

Interesting thread guys.......I'm a Platinum holder but I'm hoping the price absolutely tanks as people get emboldened by mining and 'risk' and keep questioning the worth of this firm and its 'value investing' philosophy........to be honest with you, I'm in my 20's and I plan to hold this stock till I die (subject to it keeping its core skillset, brand and method).........they will always make premium returns whatever the market because they don't negotiate on fees.......the fees will always be there because they have the most sustainable and pure funds management philosophy I have seen........but the real reason to hold the thing is growth without capital expenditure......how do you guys think that people without much money at all can start a company and watch it growth 1000's of times its starting size and still retain a majority shareholding....Its true of FLT and of PTM and I sure hope the price tanks so I can load up heavily


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## lamadas (9 November 2007)

looks like you got your wish!
Any thoughts on who/why would sell below the list price?
Is this a good time to load up?


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## Sean K (9 November 2007)

lamadas said:


> looks like you got your wish!
> Any thoughts on who/why would sell below the list price?
> Is this a good time to load up?



I have quite a bit in their funds, and as a professional investor I am now wondering what the heck I am doing. Recently got out of the International Fund and have been watching Japan slip sliding away...

I'm staying in the funds for the international exposure, and the contrarian/value investor in me is saying that they'll come good, one day. Maybe..


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## Ken (9 November 2007)

kennas,


I dont understand it.

CBUS superfund are pouring money into PTM. every day they keep buying more.


They have bought from float all the way down.

They have sold a few times for tax losses I suspect, it just makes no sense.

I guess they are a super fund and have endless amounts of money, and long term it will pay off. But for the average investor, you can't keep averaging your price down.


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## Rainmaker2000 (9 November 2007)

Kennas, as a professional investor I'm not sure why you want any managed funds but then again if I had too much money to invest, then I probably would take out some index funds........as for Japan, that's still a well performing fund over a few years, but I know its not BHP either....but a low/medium risk reward scenario I would have thought........

As for shares in Platinum the fund manager, I'm getting my wish and have been lightly picking up on way down, like Ken I own some from around $6.....unlike Ken I'm hoping more people keep thinking like Ken and keep selling this puppy...I not trying to average down, I'm just wanting to scoop the honey....Right now is one of the most interesting times in investing.......you really think something is dead sexy but everyone else thinks its a dog.......you actually have to start thinking like its a dog for you to go close to picking bottom.........sentiment and FUM on PTM will not change overnight and I'm hoping its compounded by a major correction to really create the perfect storm...


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## Ken (9 November 2007)

This is what concerns me.

How can one pick a bottom?

Who am I to decide the stock should stop falling.


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## Rainmaker2000 (9 November 2007)

I'll just address you question lamadas, keeping in mind there is no advice giving here, if we were to speculate where bottom may be, I would consider:

a) As a fund manager, its assetless or they are all on two legs....so I would lean to pretty much using P/E ratio to value them relatively 

b) When Platinum floated, people were bullish in valuing them as very much 'glass half full'...they listed round $9 and even at $6 represented a P/E 18 which is actually about average for their peers although PTM is far superior.

c)Since the float, everything that can go wrong in just 6 months has gone wrong so people are starting to tip the 'glass half emply' attitude toward their future growth.......cause its all about growth

d)PTM is a new share so there's no establishing price range....this I think leads to more of a free fall and less trust from chartists

e) Sentiment will not change quickly and earnings have declined slightly on forecasts and growth assumptions have been wound back

I think on a perfect storm scenario, the price could hit a P/E of 12ish or $4 but its more likely to bottom around $4.40 maybe.........I'm just working off hunches here, I'm sure some of these chart guys could draw some nice pictures for us......either way I'd buy it for $6 tomorrow if I didn't have any but don't expect it to pay off like a mining stock in doubling every 6 months


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## michael_selway (9 November 2007)

Ken said:


> this is what concerns me.
> 
> how can one pick a bottom?
> 
> who am i to decide the stock should stop falling.




Hi have you got a charte that goes further back?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 27.3 33.3 36.4 40.2 
DPS 0.0 28.4 31.2 34.7 *

thx

MS


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## Ken (9 November 2007)

Sorry poor chart.

Heres my thinking...


In 5 years time what is the chart going to look like? Similar to your Argo Investments and other LIC, or more choppy like a James Hardie? Is PTM a cyclical stock?   


PTM has its on nieche it seems and its a hard stock to predict what is going to drive its share price around.

Thats what I looking at it closely for.  DO they have the ability to grow earnings year on year?


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## Rainmaker2000 (10 November 2007)

Ken, what motivated you to buy this little diamond for, especially up round $6 which prices a lot in for a company without hard assets.......By chance, in my view, you've picked an exceptional long termer.  Why?

Platinum is not an Lic but in fact the only 'assets' you are buying is the name of the company, its current contracts of its staff, office furniture that may be leased............

Platinum is pretty much just a plain funds manager.  Aussies and others give them money and they invest it in companies globally in return for various (high) fees.  So what makes them special?  They have developed, in my mind, an exceptional and unique investment method.  This different method colours the whole culture of the organisation which means that they are distinctive in acquiring staff, training and rewarding.

Unlike the rest of industry bending over backwards for customers, they don't.  They don't negotiate on their high fees and they don't advertise as they think the performance of their funds are the only advertisements needed.

As a result, a dramatically high proportion of every fee paid goes to the bottom line.  It is hard to see them as anything other than a long term growth story as clearly they inevitably will have more funds under management and thus a rich increasing river of fees derived off a low cost base.

But the beauty is Ken, we get to buy them at a discounted price since their funds under management has actually had a decline for 6 months or so and will continue to decline probably for next 6 months..Why?  Well, that's the question......many of their funds are lagging the bull market in recent times cause they just won't take the risks others are and I guess there is the fear that all of a sudden they have lost their midas touch.......while this sells newspapers, do your research and work out if this is true...does all that change in 6 months?


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## Buffettology (11 November 2007)

Interesting stock at the moment this one!

I will do some analysis on it in the coming couple weeks and try to value it for myself.

Definately a long-term investment, one Ill be sure to keep my eye on!


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## lamadas (12 November 2007)

thanks for the thoughts Rainmaker..... what you say is pretty spot on.
Lets see what Buff comes up with.


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## Pager (12 November 2007)

I bought into this stock today at $4.97, which is below what the IPO was priced at.

I remember well its debut and the scramble for its stock that almost doubled its price in a few days, must be a few who are sitting on pretty bad losses should they sell, think in time it will recover and be back up towards $10, like many of the financial stocks it has taken a battereing, maybe further to fall but IMO maybe a good time to add to long term portfolios.

In the last 2 weeks ive been buying AFG and MQG, now today PTM, next on the list is a stake in PPT.

Cheers

Pager


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## Rainmaker2000 (12 November 2007)

I picked a few more trinkets up at 4.9 but am hoping for some more serious falls which are entirely possible.......you would have thought all the day traders who got in days after float would be all gone now...but who knows...they all know the price of everything but the value of nothing or however it goes....


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## Ken (12 November 2007)

Dividends of 28 cents a share your looking at 5.6% yield.

Thats a good yield I think.

AFG is 6.5%

Preferred financial sector stocks are MBL and BNB by the fundmangers however.D


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## shinobi346 (15 November 2007)

Some strong buys today. Looks like its heading back up from the graphs.

1 2 3 4 5 once I caught a fish alive


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## Sean K (15 November 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> Some strong buys today. Looks like its heading back up from the graphs.
> 
> 1 2 3 4 5 once I caught a fish alive



Wishful thinking I think shinobi. One positive day does not make a bottom, as you can see on this chart.

A stock needs to be making higher lows and highs before you can call it 'going up'. Needs to crack $5.50 for a start and then $6.00 resistance. 

1 2 3 4, you pad a post again, and it's out the door!


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## Rainmaker2000 (15 November 2007)

There is no real reason the stock should be jumping back up since there will be some further negative FUM numbers to come out in coming months.....it is pretty cheap already though


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## shinobi346 (15 November 2007)

Well it was only 5 cents short of that today.  Lets see what will happen tomorrow. Volume still looks pretty strong and the way I see it, it was falling with the market. 

PTM was my fish, Kennas.


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## winanga (28 November 2007)

Ken, 75% of PTM's shares are owned by staff, so the free-float is tiny compared to MQG or BNB.  Don't mean to sound patronising, but how much research do you do before investing?


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## blaze87 (28 November 2007)

winanga said:


> Ken, 75% of PTM's shares are owned by staff, so the free-float is tiny compared to MQG or BNB.  Don't mean to sound patronising, but how much research do you do before investing?




is there a general website you can use to find director's holding as a % for most, if not all companies on the asx?


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## winanga (28 November 2007)

Blaze, it depends on what information provider(s) you have access to.

If you've got basically nothing, the best place to find this is in their annual report - see http://www.annualreportsunlimited.com.au/ . The top 20 shareholders are listed in the last few pages.  Of course, these are only updated once a year, but they can give you a good idea of who the big, stable shareholders are.  PTM are in their first year, so they haven't got a report yet.

From Bloomberg, Kerr Neilson owns 58%, Andrew Clifford owns 6%, and Malcolm Halstead owns 4%.

Winanga


----------



## shinobi346 (20 December 2007)

AEGIS has put a buy recommendation on this share. 12month target being 5.98 down from 6.23.

They expect demand for investment assets in Aust to exceed supply, which in turn will push people to turn towards global fund managers like PTM. AEGIS has a strong long term outlook on this share so their analysis is more for the investor than trader.


        07   08    09
EPS  33.6 33.2 36.2
DPS  0.0 30.0 32.5



disclaimer: what I wrote above could be totally wrong and I may have dreamt it up in my sleep. I hold PTM but I'm not selling anytime soon so the SP makes no difference to me.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (23 January 2008)

The perfect storm.......burn baby burn........I'm looking to hold this one for fifty years or so, give or take a decade


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> The perfect storm.......burn baby burn........I'm looking to hold this one for fifty years or so, give or take a decade




40 years is a long long time!

Cant say I apply more than a 10 year time-frame to my valuations or investments!  Of course, this being updated yearly as new figures are released!


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (23 January 2008)

I think the stuff Buffet likes muchly, he buys to hold indefinitely......his cornerstone investment in the Washington newspaper springs to mind.....of course, I get very itchy if stuff hits a high valuation but I try to fight it.......like  I got out of FLT few months ago but really tried to force myself not too...that sell looks good now, but will it look good in 10 years?

Platinum is up round 50 cents this morning which suggests that Kerr has given a loan to his staff to buy some stock..hehe


----------



## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> I think the stuff Buffet likes muchly, he buys to hold indefinitely......his cornerstone investment in the Washington newspaper springs to mind.....of course, I get very itchy if stuff hits a high valuation but I try to fight it.......like  I got out of FLT few months ago but really tried to force myself not too...that sell looks good now, but will it look good in 10 years?
> 
> Platinum is up round 50 cents this morning which suggests that Kerr has given a loan to his staff to buy some stock..hehe




Yeh, but in my number crunching, when I enter the timeframe into my equations, I enter 10 as the number of years to calculate my FV and then 10 and a 15% i to convert that back to my PV.

When valuations get too high, I usually sell HALF my stock in the company (in very untrue Buffett style) and try to buy in again when its a bit cheaper!  That way, I cover both bases.  Seems to have worked so far!   

lol on Kerr.  Platinum got hit very hard the last few days, so it makes sense it gets one of the best bounces so quickly!  A lot of these other stocks lost their value over the previous few weeks, as opposed to few days, so they will take some time to recover.  

You have much cash to buy up bargains in this fall, or you bulk in stocks?


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (23 January 2008)

Still, I thought the sudden fall in PTM had some logic....their 'trading stock', emerging international shares have been hit hard....that's more logical than my favorite Salmon farmer Tassel losing a $1 because a few Americans couldn't pay back their loans.

I was fortunate to exit my largest holdings, JST among them, at good times, but I have not preserved as much cash as I'd like for this time....it's times like this that I remind myself the patience the very best investors show and how deficient I am of that patience and timing.....  Right now, you can buy even the best businesses 'on sale'...JSt included....still I'm very happy with my holdings and looking forward to the profit season


----------



## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> Still, I thought the sudden fall in PTM had some logic....their 'trading stock', emerging international shares have been hit hard....that's more logical than my favorite Salmon farmer Tassel losing a $1 because a few Americans couldn't pay back their loans.
> 
> I was fortunate to exit my largest holdings, JST among them, at good times, but I have not preserved as much cash as I'd like for this time....it's times like this that I remind myself the patience the very best investors show and how deficient I am of that patience and timing.....  Right now, you can buy even the best businesses 'on sale'...JSt included....still I'm very happy with my holdings and looking forward to the profit season




Yeh, I sold ALL my JST in the end at around 5.88, but bought a relatively large chunk back at 5.04, no need to mention, they are my biggest loss so far as far as dollar value is concerned.  DEX I have lost more % wise but didnt invest nearly as much in it.  

I also got completely out of EQN at 6.45 I beleive, which freed up cash for BKL and TOL of which are both even with what I got them at (hasnt done nearly as bad as EQN in this crash, so Im lucky with that).  

I agree, I am by nature very impatient, though obviously not as much as some.  Agreed, some great sales out there, JST one of them!  But no way am I putting anymore into it, some bad retail figures and I would be blown out from that stock!  Though, I do love it as a long-termer 10 year timeframe!!

Profit season is the big ? here, but like you, I am happy with my portfolio and think they should fare well as far as profits are concerned!  That will truly determine how this rally pans out!


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## Rainmaker2000 (24 January 2008)

The bounce from PTM now is hard to explain to 4.8 from below 4............I can only conclude that some market players read the same passage in the quarterly funds report that read.....namely that PTM's international fund by end of December had more than 30% in short selling US stuff....that's up from their usual 20% in short selling

They may not make 25% returns on their funds this year, but they are going to kill their index again


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## oldblue (31 May 2008)

Does anyone have any ideas why PTM jumped 49c yesterday?
No news so far as I can tell.


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## Rainmaker2000 (2 June 2008)

I've been fishing for that info as well, but since the price tanked this morning, it was obviously someone was told they had to get the order by Friday.....not like the institutions care about their own shareholder returns..hehe

Looks like FUM may be stabalising in recent months....PTM has the cleanest income statement of any company I've seen...be interesting to see how low the price will go


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## oldblue (2 June 2008)

It appears that a certain well known newsletter recently came out confirming its favourable view of PTM.
It should be noted that this newsletter also favours current underperformers SIP, TIM and IFM. A contrarian view?


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## Rainmaker2000 (2 June 2008)

hehe, well put....must say I don't have a subscription to that well known publication but due to a similarity in investing methods, I often share some of their stocks...while I own a lot of stocks, they include ifm, tim and ptm......

For what it's worth, I think their recommendation of ptm float was irresponsible (I heard it was $7.50!!)..I still can't believe the stock hit $9 something..I've looked closely at SIP and don't like it at all....Still, stock investing can be a long race


----------



## fredericktang (15 July 2008)

What's everyones feeling about PTM at the moment? is it still worth it to hold? I know there's a negative sentiment about financial stocks at the moment, and the sector is getting hammered. Is PTM one to hold?

Thoughts?


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 July 2008)

oldblue said:


> It appears that a certain well known newsletter recently came out confirming its favourable view of PTM.
> It should be noted that this newsletter also favours current underperformers SIP, TIM and IFM. A contrarian view?




That newsletter needs some smarts, soon. SIP and PTM are both dropping like stones. TIM and IFM look more slowly terminal. 

I think Wrong would be a more suitable description than contrarian.

gg


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## poretti (17 July 2008)

i used to pay a lot of attention to our notorious newsletter but disregard it these days, i think it had a good run while things were coasting along but IMHO its shortcomings have become evident lately (regardless of wider market negativity).


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## Rainmaker2000 (18 July 2008)

The good thing for me is that PTM remains the company that was floated 1 year ago....I'd be happy if the price never appreciated as long as FUM increased.. since it will always payout round 90% of profits in dividends

The key for them though is obviously to lift FUM and sell themselves better....they will outperform their index again this year so investors would be better off with a PTM fund than most........but then would investors be better off in cash??? many certainly think so and no one likes losing cash


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## moreld (16 May 2009)

*Look but Don't Touch*

It’s time to start watching PTM as the federal budget just put a pin in asset managers by lowering the superannuation contribution limits. PTM has pulled back 10.8% to $4.05 in the last five days, but is still up 39% from the March 10 low of $2.91. 
Look but don’t touch.


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## So_Cynical (16 May 2010)

moreld said:


> It’s time to start watching PTM as the federal budget just put a pin in asset managers by lowering the superannuation contribution limits. PTM has pulled back 10.8% to $4.05 in the last five days, but is still up 39% from the March 10 low of $2.91.
> *Look but don’t touch*.




 Turns out it was time to buy....ah hindsight.

-----------------

PTM looks to be good buying at the moment, its certainly an interesting stock that seems to offer lots of regular in and out opportunity's, as well as regular dividends with a current yield of a little over 5% gross.

The SP is probably under a little pressure at the moment due to the continuing fun and games in America and the Euro zone...FUM bottomed in Feb 09 at 13.5B and seems to be slowly trending up and currently at 17.5B 

Platinum seems to be a great Aussie success story...as long as Mr Neilson hangs around for another 5 or so years (he's 60) we could expect PTM to give great exposure to the international recovery with no dilutions due to reinvestment schemes, cap raisings etc...surely every diversified portfolio would benefit from a little PTM....all data chart below.
~


----------



## So_Cynical (19 May 2010)

I brought into PTM today at $4.73 pretty much a nine month low, factoring the dividend forward i reckon a gross yield of around 5.5% is quite probable...Platinum is a star fund manager in an industry dominated by mediocrity and ultra conservatism.

Australia's super pool is set to continue growing at a rapid pace and with investment choice slowly growing in acceptance with fund managers and financial literacy on the increase...star fund managers like Platinum can only 
grow and gain greater acceptance.


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## So_Cynical (1 August 2010)

PTM released there Quarterly report a few weeks ago, 44 pages of smart big picture financial commentary and details on the activities of all the Platinum managed funds, finishing with some cartoons and African distractions.  

http://www.platinum.com.au/images/ptqtr_0610.pdf

As for my PTM trade...im determined not to sell under $5.55 as i feel 17%+ profit is an acceptable exit all things considered.


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## So_Cynical (19 August 2010)

Platinum released there preliminary final report today.

http://www.platinum.com.au/images/ptm-app4e610.pdf

Highlights

Total revenue up 13.15% (248 mill)
Net profit after income tax up 8.49% (136 mill)
Management fees up 16% (217 mill)
Diluted earnings per share up 7.9% (21.62c to 23.33c) 
Final dividend up 16.6% (12c to 14c)
Funds under management up 31.5% (18.4 bill)

ninemsn had  bit of a write up about it. 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7947906

My $4.73 entry of a few months ago (Green dot) is now starting to look like pretty good timing, with today's dividend increase im looking at a yield of a little over 6% gross going forward...not to shabby for a blue chip fund manager like platinum.
~


----------



## skc (20 August 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Platinum released there preliminary final report today.
> 
> http://www.platinum.com.au/images/ptm-app4e610.pdf
> 
> ...




Nice one SC. They are one of the few managers out there that has increased revenue, FUM and bottom line. Look at the insurers (QBE, IAG) and AMP who all got hammered on poor investment income figures. Whereas PTM must have a different business model where size (FUM) matters more than investment returns.

The one trouble is that revenue growth of 13.5% was supported by cost increase of 31.5%. Not so good on margin imo.

And the other trouble is the broader market looking for a retreat today. Let's hope that doesn't spoil an otherwise solid announcement.


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## robusta (12 January 2011)

Will be watching PTM with intererst. I have wanted to buy a piece of this company for a while now.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...l-expects-first-half-loss-20110112-19nz9.html


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## oxygen (21 April 2011)

Any current thoughts on this company? Would like to get into it or HHL in coming months as both should do very well as the recovery continues and FUM increase.


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## So_Cynical (21 April 2011)

oxygen said:


> Any current thoughts on this company? Would like to get into it or HHL in coming months as both should do very well as the recovery continues and FUM increase.




I own both, have done for awhile....PTM is the better value entry at the moment, was great earlier in the week at under $4.69 i had a buy order at $4.62 last week that didn't get filled  a week can be a long time in the market.

HHL and PTM are the only 2 fund mangers worth owing in my humble opinion....i remember reading in a recent issue of the FR smart investor mag how PTM was the only fund manager among the majors that was significantly growing FUM, growing FUM faster than AMP and IFL etc.


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## notabclearning (21 April 2011)

Anyone had a look at HFA. IMO it has a great future ahead. Some analysts are saying it could reach $8


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## oxygen (22 April 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I own both, have done for awhile....PTM is the better value entry at the moment, was great earlier in the week at under $4.69 i had a buy order at $4.62 last week that didn't get filled  a week can be a long time in the market.
> 
> HHL and PTM are the only 2 fund mangers worth owing in my humble opinion....i remember reading in a recent issue of the FR smart investor mag how PTM was the only fund manager among the majors that was significantly growing FUM, growing FUM faster than AMP and IFL etc.




That PTM are growing FUM faster at the moment makes sense. HHL operate in the smaller cap end of the market and while long term performances of both managers funds is among the best, investors who are likely to look at funds are still probably hesitant about the mid and small cap sector. HHL's new Asian Trust should help inflows of funds pickup though. 

The biggest concern i have for both stocks is that from next year when advisors stop recieving comissions for recommending funds, is this going to really cut into new money going into all funds? Boutique managers will likely be less affected by this as they likely appeal to more sophisticated investors than the major run of the mill funds.


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## oxygen (22 April 2011)

I'd also be interested to know why you believe PTM is better value. HHL is trading on a lower PE and higher yield than the other major diversified financials.


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## So_Cynical (22 April 2011)

oxygen said:


> I'd also be interested to know why you believe PTM is better value. HHL is trading on a lower PE and higher yield than the other major diversified financials.




Better value as in 'shares per dollar' I have little interest in "value" investing, i brought HHL & PTM at about the same time.


Brought HHL 08/08/10 ~ $5.29 now $5.82  
Brought PTM 19/05/10 ~ $4.72 now $4.74 

HHL has risen significantly since my buy in and PTM has not...therefore PTM is better value now because i would get more shares per dollar...my buy target for HHL is under $5.35


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## robusta (23 April 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Better value as in 'shares per dollar' I have little interest in "value" investing, i brought HHL & PTM at about the same time.
> 
> 
> Brought HHL 08/08/10 ~ $5.29 now $5.82
> ...




Strange way to look at it  By that logic a $0.01 stock would be better value because you would get a heap more shares / dollar.

I agree PTM is better value but mainly because of superior ROE, still not cheap enogh for me however.


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## So_Cynical (23 April 2011)

robusta said:


> Strange way to look at it  By that logic a $0.01 stock would be better value because you would get a heap more shares / dollar.




Except that we are not talking about any stock but rather the 2 stocks in question.



oxygen said:


> Any current thoughts on this company? Would like to get into it or HHL in coming months as both should do very well as the recovery continues and FUM increase.




have a look at the 1 year charts for both and you will find the bottom for PTM was around $4.60 and HHL about $5.20 ~ logically i want to pay the lowest price possible for my shares, which i did manage to do with both these stocks...so by any direct comparison of share price for these 2 stocks, PTM is the better value (cheaper) option because it hasn't risen substantially like HHL did/has.


----------



## So_Cynical (4 May 2011)

I took a bit of an average down into PTM today, when i saw the SP just falling away this morning i just had to have some more...i mean if i was trying to buy the other week at 4.62, today's sub 4.40 prices were simply a must have...SP now clearly below post GFC support with FUM still rising. 

I imagine the price weakness came about via the release yesterday of the Platinum Trust Quarterly Report...clearly the funds haven't been doing to well over the last 6 months or so  anyway onwards and upwards with the PTM funds taking the opportunity that was presented by the Tsunami market weakness to close out alot of their short positions....read all about it below.

http://www.platinum.com.au/images/ptqtr_0311.pdf
~


----------



## VSntchr (5 May 2011)

Depth looking horrible this morning, I wouldnt be suprised if PTM goes below 4.20 at some stage today.

Ive felt that this has been over valued for quite a while. It is starting to get to a more enticing price level though.

PTM does have quite a bit of key person risk IMO, with Kerr Nielson. With that being said, while he remains he provides the company with a good competitive advantage. He has been referred to as an Australian equivalent of Buffet..to the extend this is true I'm not sure, but he sure is good.


----------



## So_Cynical (5 May 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Depth looking horrible this morning, I wouldnt be suprised if PTM goes below 4.20 at some stage today.
> 
> Ive felt that this has been over valued for quite a while. It is starting to get to a more enticing price level though.
> 
> PTM does have quite a bit of key person risk IMO, with Kerr Nielson. With that being said, while he remains he provides the company with a good competitive advantage. He has been referred to as an Australian equivalent of Buffet..to the extend this is true I'm not sure, but he sure is good.




Held above 4.30 today so that's a good sign....Mr Neilson is 61 years old so must be at least thinking about spending a lot more time on a beach somewhere, nah i bet he's not the type :nono: probably a workaholic that plans to sick around well into his 70's.

As if anyone could go wrong investing with Australia's only fair dinkum Billionaire stock picker.


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## VSntchr (6 May 2011)

Yeah I was completely wrong on the fall yesterday...good thing my investing focus is long term right :

Yeah, I agree..definitely Australia's best so a good move...probably at a good entry point now...just have to weigh up my options as there are a few things competing for my valuable funds!


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## oxygen (6 May 2011)

FUM is as low as it has been since September. Could explain the current price slide.


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## So_Cynical (22 June 2011)

PTM fell thru $4 today and so my 3.95 buy order got filled (second and last average down) ~ happy to get cheap PTM shares and sad the SP isn't holding to well...the PTM funds have significant short positions so unlike so many other funds the PTM funds do have some positives from all this market weakness.

Platinum's listed fund PMC was 15% short individual shares and index's at June 3

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110607/pdf/41z306l33k6nw3.pdf


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## kermit345 (23 June 2011)

PTM are almost at my valuation level and worthy of a buy. It hasn't traded below its valuation in the last 2 years according to my model and is very near doing so now.

Platinum are a very good manager through the tough time and not quite so good when things are doing better as evidence by their returns in the last 12 months. However their long term returns when looking at their underlying flagship fund (Platinum International Fund) is extraordinary over the long-term.

As superannuation accounts continue to have contributions going in which have to be directed somewhere, platinum will get a slice, particularly if they continue their long-term results. This will continual the increase in FUM along with the returns they make, essentially creating a double up effect for increasing FUM and hence, fees.

Thats why at these levels, when they are almost starting to trade at a discount to valuation, Platinum are looking like a great buy.


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## oldblue (23 June 2011)

But why would you want to buy them now when the SP is still in a deep downtrend?

I like PTM too but think I'll wait for that trend to reverse.


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## Noddy (23 June 2011)

kermit345 said:


> PTM are almost at my valuation level and worthy of a buy. It hasn't traded below its valuation in the last 2 years according to my model and is very near doing so now.
> 
> Platinum are a very good manager through the tough time and not quite so good when things are doing better as evidence by their returns in the last 12 months. However their long term returns when looking at their underlying flagship fund (Platinum International Fund) is extraordinary over the long-term.
> 
> ...




Hi Kermit,

Have a valuation for PTM for2011/12 of $2.90.
Estimated EPS around 25c for 2011/12 with minimal growth of around 5%, which is only treading water.
Book value 40c , ROE around 60%.

The stock is fairly illiquid, and seems to mainly rely on the expertise of one man to run it.
Very little demand for the stock at present, but does pay a respectable dividend due to a high payout level of over 90%.

I don't see the stock as a buy at this stage. 

Perhaps I'm missing something ?


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## McLovin (23 June 2011)

I get a value of about $4.05 for 2010 and $4.30 for 2011. I'd like to have at least a 20% MOS though before I bought in, so realistically I'd prefer it below $3.50, assuming they hit their target for this year.


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## Intrinsic Value (23 June 2011)

Noddy said:


> Hi Kermit,
> 
> Have a valuation for PTM for2011/12 of $2.90.
> Estimated EPS around 25c for 2011/12 with minimal growth of around 5%, which is only treading water.
> ...





No I agree too expensive at the moment but worth watching.


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## kermit345 (23 June 2011)

Noddy/McLovin,

While I said its looking like a great buy I probably wasn't clear enough. My IV's are current of around $3.80 and forecast of about $4.20. What I meant to say was as the share price is approaching these values it brings Platinum back closer to being a buying opportunity as it has traded above intrinsic value for the past 2 years by my calculations.

Not saying it is a screaming buy right now, but should the share price continue to diminish down to maybe $3.50/$3.60 as McLovin suggested, I think it would be close to the top of my buy list.

Portfolio Management succession does become an issue though, however hopefully they are training an analyst to fill the shoes if/when it does occur in the future.


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## So_Cynical (19 April 2012)

My 2 year old PTM trade came into profit (very small) today for the first time in 11 months....the last 3 months or so has really seen the SP turn around very strongly, a significant up trend.

My 3 average downs and particularly my last one at 3.62 in December (not posted) really turned this around for me, here's hoping the SP can break 4.50 in the next few weeks and i can close this puppy, however i do remember saying simiar in this forum somewhere a while ago...
~


----------



## Mr Wilson (22 September 2012)

Is PTM still on anyone's raider?

I have been watching this stock for the past 6 month's and for me it just keep's on getting better and better,

I'm just waiting for it to hit the bottom of the barrel before I invest, 

It has been fluctuating between $3.5 and $3.7

Can any one see it falling below the $3.5 mark?

I am new to all this and the more variables I know the better prepared I will be for the future.

Thank you in advance for your insights


----------



## So_Cynical (29 January 2013)

I've been stuck in this trade for almost 3 years  today's 4.1% rise was a continuation of the remarkable turn around in price and sentiment that started in Sept 2012, all 4 of my parcels are now in profit something i have waited a long time to see, often doubting that i would see it so soon after the bottom.

The stock market can be so crazy, just beyond sense sometimes..you just never know...the Euro and US debt cans have been kicked down the road with no real solution in view yet the markets are going crazy to the upside, or maybe it just seems crazy to me because of the crazy lows. :dunno:

3 year PTM chart below with all my entry's and the turn around....Persistence, Patience, Belief and Averaging down works again.
~


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> I've been stuck in this trade for almost 3 years  today's 4.1% rise was a continuation of the remarkable turn around in price and sentiment that started in Aug 2012, all 4 of my parcels are now in profit something i have waited a long time to see, often doubting that i would see it so soon after the bottom.
> 
> The stock market can be so crazy, just beyond sense sometimes..you just never know...the Euro and US debt cans have been kicked down the road with no real solution in view yet the markets are going crazy to the upside...3 year PTM chart below with all my entry's and the turn around.
> 
> ...




++++1

Similar experience.

Thankfully I haven't sold them and am in profit. About 10%.

gg


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## So_Cynical (8 February 2013)

Completed my PTM trade today @ $5.20 ~ its been a long time coming, way to long but that's what it takes sometimes to make a losing position a winning position...takes time and some aggressive averaging to re-position your self in the trade.

As it turns out the aggressive averaging wasn't needed in the end as all my 4 parcels were in profit, i sold my 2 most expensive parcels for trade profits of 9.36% and 17.04% leaving my remaining shares in profit to the tune of near 36% 

The fund managers were always going to rally with a broader rally, i mean the fund managers own stocks that are rallying so makes sense that they would then rally, as has happened in the last 3 > 4 months...inevitable really.

To easy? can something that takes almost 3 years to achieve be called easy?


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> To easy? can something that takes almost 3 years to achieve be called easy?




What is the opportunity cost of holding for so long?


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## So_Cynical (8 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> What is the opportunity cost of holding for so long?




I don't think it can be realistically calculated...for sure there is some cost, it cost me something..how much ill never know.

I can say with some certainty that there would of been another stock added...but cant say with any certainty what that stock would of been and at what price.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> I don't think it can be realistically calculated...for sure there is some cost, it cost me something..how much ill never know.




I actually do quite like your strategy but it can seem to be a long time between drinks so to speak.

How about if you had held an index fund or cash for 3 yrs what would it have returned in comparison to tyourholdings of PTM?


----------



## So_Cynical (8 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> I actually do quite like your strategy but it can seem to be a long time between drinks so to speak.




The last 17 months have been difficult and a complete contrast to the 17 months preceding the last 17 months, i went from completing a trade every 3 weeks on average to a trade every 3 months..i just got stuck in a heap of trades bought at the last top.

Very very reluctant to buy into this top...sitting on a heap of cash.




prawn_86 said:


> How about if you had held an index fund or cash for 3 yrs what would it have returned in comparison to tyourholdings of PTM?




Cash v PTM no contest..if i had sold out completely today i would have profits and dividends equivalent to a profit of close to 40% gross ~ with just the first (oldest) parcel that is 33 months old, i have made 123 CPS 26% gross (8.7% PA)...so even my worst investment in PTM beat cash and my best killed it.

---------------------

Now for an interesting STW comparison...STW being the State Street ASX200 tracking fund...bottom line on the chart is PTM, interestingly PTM fell much further than the index and is still somewhat under performing and because it fell further the gains have been greater, bottom to top.

The only conclusion i can come to looking at the comparison chart is...i have made a lot more money buying PTM, trade profits are greater and open profits are greater... probably slightly ahead on the dividend front too.
~


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## Gringotts Bank (15 May 2013)

Big pole, big flag, testing the breakout.


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> The last 17 months have been difficult and a complete contrast to the 17 months preceding the last 17 months, i went from completing a trade every 3 weeks on average to a trade every 3 months..i just got stuck in a heap of trades bought at the last top.
> 
> Very very reluctant to buy into this top...sitting on a heap of cash.
> 
> ...




That is a very good informative chart. S_C

I actually sold my PTM about a month ago for $5.10.

Since then it has oscillated up and down around that price.

I must look at it again.

gg


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## white_goodman (15 May 2013)

im still in from late last year, looks like a classic flag if your into that technical sorcery


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2013)

white_goodman said:


> im still in from late last year, looks like a classic flag if your into that technical sorcery




I have some goats, too kind and informative to kill and look at their entrails.

Flags imo are passe, and I don't see one here.

It is a box, sideways pattern, desperately seeking to break up, with a good chance of doing so on recent volume.

I'd be inclined to buy in again closer to $5.00, as it is a mature sideways movement, or , above $5.44 which is the recent high.

And good on you for sticking with it, I made a tidy profit on my exit, but you are ahead of me atm.

gg


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 May 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ... and I don't see one here.
> gg




Long pole, big flag, breaking out.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Long pole, big flag, breaking out.




May we basically agree to disagree. It looks like a flag, sort of, but. I'd never bet my firstborn on a flag.

I see it touching $5.00 again, and if it goes up it is very bullish over $5.44

gg


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## Gringotts Bank (15 May 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ...but. I'd never bet my firstborn on a flag.
> 
> gg




What about that red headed kid you said wasn't yours who hangs around the Townsville pub?  Low risk bet. 

(no malice intended)


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What about that red headed kid you said wasn't yours who hangs around the Townsville pub?  Low risk bet.
> 
> (no malice intended)




lol

Julia was always a problem ranga.

gg


----------



## rbgmauq (15 May 2013)

Watching for a break of 5.30 here.


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## So_Cynical (15 May 2013)

Waiting for dividends here, finished my buying at $3.62


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2013)

rbgmauq said:


> Watching for a break of 5.30 here.




I feel you could get burnt on that.

Wait for $5.44, the high before the trading range, I would be with you on that.

My guess is though it will retrace to $5.00.

It's May, ay, as we say in North Queensland.

gg


----------



## tinhat (16 May 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I feel you could get burnt on that.
> 
> Wait for $5.44, the high before the trading range, I would be with you on that.
> 
> ...




I would also be interested in seeing it get over 5.44 There's been huge volume in the past three days but the resultant rise in share price so far is disappointing given the amount of volume - there has been plenty of supply to meet demand. If that supply dries up then the share price may get going over the next few days, otherwise I suspect it will drift sideways for a bit longer.

Fundamentally, the only thing that comes to mind that might drive the value of the business up is a correction in the AUD. Given that they have a lot of funds that are invested in overseas markets but denominated in AUD, this could be a catalyst for a revaluation.



Note the build up in volume, especially the last three volume bars.


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## So_Cynical (3 July 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Completed my PTM trade today @ $5.20,  i sold my 2 most expensive parcels for trade profits of 9.36% and 17.04% leaving my remaining shares in profit to the tune of near 36%




Sold another 2/3's of my remaining shares today @ $5.75 probably should of waited for a strong up day but the new financial year and need to free up cash got the better of me. trade profit of 42.38% well worth the 3 year wait, close to 60% with dividends thrown in.

I suppose that the falling AUD and strong US market is helping the PTM share price, up substantially today while the index fell away.


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## white_goodman (12 July 2013)

the technical sorcery has seemed to have paid off 

still in for a chunk for an avg of 3.90's


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## piggybank (23 December 2013)

The last 4 days of action have seen the price increase by 10% and closed today $6.84. Its highest close since Oct 2007


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## Miner (6 February 2017)

2013- no posting on PTM for more than 3 years ? Is the company still healthy ? Its current ratio is shocking and the price is southwards ?
Any one please throw some light into it ? Kerr Neilson is still there but how long ? Saw how the majority holder of Hunter Hill ducked out selling shares at much lower value.
Restrained to buy and thought to ask forum before getting too excited on PTM.


----------



## skc (6 February 2017)

Miner said:


> 2013- no posting on PTM for more than 3 years ? Is the company still healthy ? Its current ratio is shocking and the price is southwards ?
> Any one please throw some light into it ? Kerr Neilson is still there but how long ? Saw how the majority holder of Hunter Hill ducked out selling shares at much lower value.
> Restrained to buy and thought to ask forum before getting too excited on PTM.




Some discussion in the IFL thread recently..
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/ifl-ioof-holdings.18490/page-2#post-922548


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## Klogg (6 February 2017)

Miner said:


> 2013- no posting on PTM for more than 3 years ? Is the company still healthy ? Its current ratio is shocking and the price is southwards ?
> Any one please throw some light into it ? Kerr Neilson is still there but how long ? Saw how the majority holder of Hunter Hill ducked out selling shares at much lower value.
> Restrained to buy and thought to ask forum before getting too excited on PTM.




Given the size of Neilson's holding, I doubt he's going anywhere...


----------



## skc (6 February 2017)

Klogg said:


> Given the size of Neilson's holding, I doubt he's going anywhere...




Neilson is a key man risk... he's 67 so he won't be around forever, whether he intended on going anywhere willingly or not. So the question is not if but when? (All the best to his health and all...) 

But you'd hope he wouldn't leave the same way Hall did by spitting the dummy. My guess is he will announce a transition period where he slowly withdraws from the business... going part time, grooming successors etc etc. That's the sensible way to protect his own interest and legacy.  

Worth keeping an eye on HHL, it may offer a glimpse into what the loss of a key man might do to flows and company operations.


----------



## Miner (7 February 2017)

skc said:


> N*eilson is a key man risk... he's 67* so he won't be around forever, whether he intended on going anywhere willingly or not. So the question is not if but when? (All the best to his health and all...)
> 
> But you'd hope he wouldn't leave the same way Hall did by spitting the dummy. My guess is he will announce a transition period where he slowly withdraws from the business... going part time, grooming successors etc etc. That's the sensible way to protect his own interest and legacy.
> 
> *Worth keeping an eye on HHL, it may offer a glimpse into what the loss of a key man might do to flow*s and company operations.





skc said:


> Some discussion in the IFL thread recently.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/ifl-ioof-holdings.18490/page-2#post-922548






Klogg said:


> Given the size of Neilson's holding, I doubt he's going anywhere...




Thanks, SKC and Klogg for your value added comments. I also looked into IFL thread as indicated by SKC.
My sell instruction on HHL got carried by BT Wrap. Put a buy order on PTM at an atrocious low price. Honestly, Kerr Neilson should provide confidence to the shareholders and board with the second line of defence. I am putting myself now for PTM on the sideline than getting excited.


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## So_Cynical (7 February 2017)

I sold out late last year on the basis that all the traditional fund managers are struggling with the shift to indexing, PTM in particular because they have been holding a lot of cash waiting for a pull back that hasn't come. Kerr has lost his touch.


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## Miner (8 February 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> I sold out late last year on the basis that all the traditional fund managers are struggling with the shift to indexing, PTM in particular because they have been holding a lot of cash waiting for a pull back that hasn't come. Kerr has lost his touch.



Thanks So Cynical.
I have again reviewed PTM performance and would like to wait now.


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## AUSG (24 February 2018)

Kerr Neilson announces he's stepping down. The stock tanked

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...-kerr-neilson-steps-down-20180222-p4z1ay.html


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## greggles (4 July 2018)

Anyone know why Platinum Asset Management is tanking so badly today? Is it the hand over from Kerr Neilson to Andrew Clifford or is there some other reason? 8.5% is a substantial fall in share price. Just wondering if there is something that I'm not aware of.

$5.25 looks like support, so it will be interesting to see if it bounces off that level or keeps heading down.


----------



## notting (4 July 2018)

MFG another fund manager is having a bad day too down around 7%.  No news either!
Not sure.


----------



## Mr Bear (4 July 2018)

30 June is a big date for fund managers, even though yearly performance is available at each month end the year to 30 June is researched in more detail once final distributions and performance is cut.

So bit of news today:

Platinum international fund active down 3-4% in June and at benchmark or below over 1, 3 and 5 years (5 being the most important number).

Both continue to see weak retail and insto flows announced in research from Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse today.

MS cut Magellan to underweight target $20, Credit Suisse Change to outperform target $28. I highlighted how broker targets are useless in my post last night, glad there is an example straight away.

PTM - Credit Suisse cut them to underperform. Target 5.25.

Overall fund flows are weak in an already expensive market while in the background there is fee compression going on across the industry, more bearish than bullish overall.


----------



## notting (4 July 2018)

Jesus Christ/  What they expected fund flows to be strong whilst trade spats are breaking out all over the place?
The Trump thing is starting to take casualties and it could get messy for real!  Simply because people are going to genuinely lose confidence, not just hold fire for a bit, as they have done so far!


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## bigdog (20 March 2019)

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/platinum-asset-management-co-founder-202731496.html

*Platinum Asset Management co-founder to sell $300 million of shares*




James Mickleboro
Motley Fool 20 March 2019

Platinum Asset Management Ltd (ASX: PTM) share price will be on watch this morning after the asset manager revealed that its co-founder and controller was offloading a significant number of shares.

According to the release, Mr Kerr Neilson, the co-founder and controller of Platinum Asset Management, has advised of the proposed disposal of shares by way of a fully underwritten offer to institutional and professional investors.

A total of 30 million ordinary shares held by Mr Neilson and 30 million more shares held by Mrs Judith Neilson will be sold via the offer, representing 10% of the company’s issued share capital.

The release explains that the sale will be made via an off-market bookbuild at a sale price of $5.00 per share, compared to the last close price of $5.50.

Both Mr and Mrs Neilson will retain a significant number of shares in the company after the sale, giving Mr Neilson voting control over 42.97% of the company’s issued share capital.

Mr Neilson explained that the sale will allow the pair to direct some of their capital towards other pursuits.

He said: “We are reducing our interests in the Company that was founded some 25 years ago. The partial disposal of our interests allows us to direct some of our capital towards other pursuits, particularly those that relate to the arts and philanthropy, as well as diversifying our personal investments.”

No further share sales will be undertaken during the next 12 months.

*Should you be concerned?*
I think it is completely understandable why the Neilsons would be offloading shares and would not be concerned if I were a shareholder.

However, due to the discount that the shares are being sold at, I suspect that its share price could come under pressure and wouldn’t be surprised to see it slide as low as the offer price if some institutional and professional investors look to make a quick profit.

At that point it could be worth considering a small investment, though I intend to wait for its performance to improve before doing so.


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## bigdog (20 March 2019)

SP down to Neilson sale price of $5.00


The release explains that the sale will be made via an off-market bookbuild at a sale price of $5.00 per share, compared to the last close price of $5.50.


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## finicky (28 February 2020)

Worth a note?
*PTM* is the only one of my list of 40 LICs, ETFs and managed funds that is up today apart from bear ETFs: BBOZ and BEAR.
Could it be recognition of the short p/fs that they run to balance risk in their long p/fs? They say they are, "short overpriced, safety, and growth stocks"
Or the cash portion they hold?
Or the 'theses' they run their investments on that growth and 'safety' stocks are in a bubble and the stocks they focus on - industrials and cyclicals - are very cheap?
Or how about the plump dividend?

Holding small position
Sentiment: was considering buying a few today but the price went up!


----------



## finicky (6 March 2020)

*PTM* (Platinum Asset Management) @ *$3.56*

Intriguing going back over this PTM sub-forum over the years - for me anyway. Goes right back to the ASX pre-listing and the IPO. Then the drama of reaching *$9* upon listing on the boards for what was a *$5* IPO. This was back in the heady days of 2007 pre GFC. Then the GFC when it looked like it bottoned earlier than many @ about *2.60* in about June/July of 2008. Posters back then must be missed a little by some now - some astute commentary imo and one poster showing prescience and strong fundamental conviction (Rainmaker)

Now I'm looking at it and am convinced of its value and safety as a dividend stock with a good chance of modest capital appreciation in future when we get out of this morass, but am staying my hand so far for a change of sentiment chart signal. Not that I'll go in for big bickies - maybe just another 1,000 or 2,000 shares.
Just a primitive thought today - if I go back over the past 10 years of franked dividends and throw out the outlier of 47c paid in fy15 and then average the next three best dividend paying years of 34, 32, 30 cents = 32c average. The yield for that @ today's share price of 3.56  would be 9% fully franked. Assumes we get back to those days a year or three down the track, plus it follows would get a share price rise too.

Worth noting though that the IPO for this was at $5 in, I think it was April of 2007, (cunning timing?) and 'loyal' holders from that time are holding a share worth only $3.56 today

Held

PTM All Data Monthly


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## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2020)

from that graph, can you guess when Kerr Neilson's divorce settlement came through?

I've always taken the view for these headstock companies* in the funds management game, skilled as they are in corporate manoeuverings, that they don't necessarily have the interests of external investors at heart. The set-up can be to deliver 'golden handcuffs' by way of long-dated options to key personnel, as a means of retaining staff and not letting them head off to work for opposition or set up their own shop. (and when they vest, can then sell to finance new house, new mistress, new identity down the track)

Additionally, the nature of Funds Under Management (FUM) especially for unlisted funds is that success, outperformance, shows both a FUM lift from revaluations PLUS investor inflows (everyone likes a winner). This of course works the other way in a down market or when managers get it wrong. So the apparent alpha is essentially amplified (and why managers become closet index-huggers because the punishment for underperformance outweighs the upside from being a hero)

*PTM, also MFG, PNI, PCG, IFL and beaucoup others


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## finicky (23 March 2020)

Had my nibble for the day, PTM down close to the GFC low (not that that's any proof). Picked up another 1,000 shares @ $3.70, didn't snag tbe intra-day low.
The following graph is of interest to me and suggests tgat PTM funds have at least some cushion to the dakage from long positions. The funds are short 'safety' and bubble growth assets, or something like that, while being long undevalued cyclicals and industrials or again, something like that (you look it up, its in the February H1 analysts briefing). Anyway, the graph shows how strikingly better the funds would have performed against the benchmark over different periods if not for cautious short positioning, at least I think's that how we're meant to interpret it.
The other thing I'm tempted today to add in this sector is Fiducian (FID) - directors still stoically buying, but the chart suggests to me lower is possible, who knows?


----------



## finicky (8 January 2021)

Funds are *still* outflowing, although the FUM are a little better as usual because of the appreciation in value of the purchased assets. PTM will be well worth a look in a crash because of the solid stuff they buy imo. Meanwhile the chart is in an orderly channel of decline after a strong rally and not a concern for holders, save exogenous events.







Daily


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## finicky (25 February 2021)

Really nice moves from PTM this week. Missed opportunity with that dividend imminent.

Daily


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2021)

finicky said:


> Really nice moves from PTM this week. Missed opportunity with that dividend imminent.
> 
> Daily
> View attachment 120603



Also me.

gg


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## dyna (26 August 2021)

Platinum increased its 2021 profit by all of .....5% ! The index is up by...what? 30% ? These ace stock-pickers, even saw fit to  pay themselves a $4 million performance fee. ( Down from $ 9 Mill. last year )
$ 20 Billion under management and they can only earn a miserable $ 163.25 Million net profit .
Here's why you may as well  give up on "active" management, people .....Just go for E.T.F's  .


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2021)

dyna said:


> Platinum increased its 2021 profit by all of .....5% ! The index is up by...what? 30% ? These ace stock-pickers, even saw fit to  pay themselves a $4 million performance fee. ( Down from $ 9 Mill. last year )
> $ 20 Billion under management and they can only earn a miserable $ 163.25 Million net profit .
> Here's why you may as well  give up on "active" management, people .....Just go for E.T.F's  .



Pretty confusing , isn't it. For you, perhaps

PTM is the corporate structure. It is a non-operating holding company of Platinum Investment Management Limited (PIML).

If you want to look a the market, where active management happens, try PMC Platinum Capital or PAI Platinum Asia, the listed versions of the managed funds together with Platinum Europe and a bunch of sector specific funds:


Investment Performance 
1 year  .... 5 yrs (% pa) ...... 10 yrs (% pa) ....... Since inception (% p.a.) 
*PMC's performance *
 .. 23.9%  ...... 10.6% ........... 10.8% .......... 11.8% 
*MSCI AC World Net Index* in A$i
....  27.7% ....... 14.4%  .......... 13.9% ......... 7.8%


----------



## finicky (8 November 2021)

PTM down at $3, the price J.Neilson recently offloaded the bulk of her shares.
Following her sale, October is the first month I can remember where net outflow of funds is matched by a drop of FUM - and big drop in FUM too, negative ~$1.3B
Will the chart drop to the all time lows near 2.50?
It wouldn't be the first time that the Neilsons have sold masses of shares that benefited them at the cost of those who bought their shares.

Held

All Data Mthly


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 November 2021)

finicky said:


> PTM down at $3, the price J.Neilson recently offloaded the bulk of her shares.
> Following her sale, October is the first month I can remember where net outflow of funds is matched by a drop of FUM - and big drop in FUM too, negative ~$1.3B
> Will the chart drop to the all time lows near 2.50?
> It wouldn't be the first time that the Neilsons have sold masses of shares that benefited them at the cost of those who bought their shares.



Judith N is divorced from Kerr. She had 50% as part of the settlement but only just got control over them.
From 15 Oct:
_"The trade comes less than two weeks after Neilson took full control of the shares.

"The stock’s voting, disposal and other rights were formerly held by her ex-husband, and Platinum Asset Management founder, Kerr Neilson, as part of a “Stability Deed” signed in March 2016_.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 November 2021)

Platinum Asset Management’s chair has sympathised with shareholders hit hard by the company’s tumbling share price, which is down a third this year.


> “_With our share price trading at current levels, I can understand that shareholders are likely to be disappointed with the share price performance,_“ said Guy Strapp, chair of Platinum, in comments for the annual general meeting.




He said the decline in the share price was “_predominantly a factor of the fund’s relative underperformance vis a vis the broader market which in turn impacts net fund flows and investment management fees._”

He also pointed to the sale of a block of stock by Judith Neilsen as another factor depressing the shares but said the company was not undervalued relative to competitors.


> “_Given our recent investment performance and client redemptions we do not appear to be undervalued right now_,” he said.


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2021)

And a contrarian's eyes light up. 😎


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2021)

But, stepping back a bit, it's been pretty average for 5 years.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 November 2021)

Its been brutal for Platinum, as asset allocators they have collectively done a very average job. they really missed to boat with the switch to ETF's and the super boom, simply put fund mangers are judged by how well the funds do. PTM is crashing and burning, month after month and year after year FUM keeps falling.

I sold out in late 2016 at about 5.70


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> Its been brutal for Platinum, as asset allocators they have collectively done a very average job. they really missed to boat with the switch to ETF's and the super boom, simply put fund mangers are judged by how well the funds do. PTM is crashing and burning, month after month and year after year FUM keeps falling.
> 
> I sold out in late 2016 at about 5.70




I had three of the managed funds back in the naughties. Bailed during the GFC, which in retrospect was a good move even though I lost a bit on paper due to the units been smashed down. Have always considered getting into PTM in the back of my mind but they seem to have really lost the plot. Maybe Kerr isn't running the show anymore?


----------



## So_Cynical (18 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> I had three of the managed funds back in the naughties. Bailed during the GFC, which in retrospect was a good move even though I lost a bit on paper due to the units been smashed down. Have always considered getting into PTM in the back of my mind but they seem to have really lost the plot. Maybe Kerr isn't running the show anymore?



Kerr is gone and split with the missus and she sold all her shares just a couple of weeks ago, didn't help the SP.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 December 2021)

I agree @Sean K and @So_Cynical with all your above comments.

I nearly met Keir once long time ago. He was in 1st and I was in Business on a flight that “broke down” in KL. I tried to get a conversation going as they bussed us to a hotel for an o’nite stay but he had his head in spreadsheets and documents. Worked his butt off all the way to LHR.

I held PTM years ago and might have a look again.

gg


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## finicky (9 December 2021)

Today: Greg Canavan's (Port Phillip) backing it at this price, refers to the big dividend obviously but likes its defensive positioning. Says that according to Oct report they are only 69% invested (adjusting for cash and shorts)
There's a bar graph showing how PTM funds were buffered by this approach during past crashes.
I don't like the China investment but don't know the weight.

_ Since February 2021, Chinese stocks have cost the portfolio 3.5% in returns. In recent months, we re-entered Alibaba and Tencent at attractive levels, having exited in late 2020 and early 2021 respectively, as they became too popular. Our major Chinese holdings include China Overseas Land & Investment (real estate), Ping An Insurance, Trip.com (travel), Weichai Power (engine maker) and ZTO Express (logistics). These seven companies have an average P/E of 9x._’


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 December 2021)

I'm in a bind as to whether or not to buy PTM atm. 

FUM are down, and continuing a downward path, while most of the stock is held by insiders. 

The only way I see it improving for PTM is if the cyclical stocks improve AND the growth stocks stand still. 

If the growth stocks fall then all stocks will fall imo in this investing climate. 

Technically it looks like a dogs dinner, bearish. 

The divi is way in the future in these days of plague.

It is a dart pick really. It was a dart pick at $4.50, $4.00, $3.50 and $3.00. It is still a dart pick at $2.70 this evening. 

The instos are scarce on the ownership table with the majority as was noted above being insiders. 

I'll wait for the fat lady to sing. 

gg


----------



## finicky (11 January 2022)

Month of December continues the downtrend with $168m net outflows.
FUM caught it up somewhat but still down $44m (-0.22%)


----------



## Sean K (13 January 2022)

Could Judith selling out be the end of the downturn?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> Could Judith selling out be the end of the downturn?



often can be, the weight of uncertainty is removed.  ... but still/ now will be valued on FUM and the performance of markets.


----------



## dyna (13 January 2022)

For the last 3 months of 2021, retail investors withdrew over $ 1 Billion and nearly $1/2 Billion taken out by institutions.
( Not forgetting the biggie, of course. $23 Billion pulled by St Jame's Palace .)


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 January 2022)

dyna said:


> For the last 3 months of 2021, retail investors withdrew over $ 1 Billion and nearly $1/2 Billion taken out by institutions.
> ( Not forgetting the biggie, of course. $23 Billion pulled by St Jame's Palace .)



wrong outfit ... that was Magellan

(_Alexandra Douglass . ... her time may come _??)


----------



## dyna (13 January 2022)

Oops!...in the wrong hole, again.


----------



## finicky (29 January 2022)

Looks like PTM will end January at an all time low monthly close. Slight signs of hope in the *weekly* chart (not shown) but nothing much yet (price has moved lethargically outside downtrend, a few indecisive candles, momentum flat lining) 
I can see no reason for taking a chance on them yet, what with the investing in China tech and real estate stocks. Reading that for me was a turn off worse than the receding funds.

Held

All Data *Monthly



*


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2022)

finicky said:


> Looks like PTM will end January at an all time low monthly close. Slight signs of hope in the *weekly* chart (not shown) but nothing much yet (price has moved lethargically outside downtrend, a few indecisive candles, momentum flat lining)
> I can see no reason for taking a chance on them yet, what with the investing in China tech and real estate stocks. Reading that for me was a turn off worse than the receding funds.
> 
> Held
> ...



I once owned and looking at the long term was a real kick inthe guts as i had a positive bias:
PTM has been appalling looking at the last 10y, even I did better 🥴
I can not understand how they have managed to stay afloat with these results


----------



## Sean K (29 January 2022)

finicky said:


> Looks like PTM will end January at an all time low monthly close. Slight signs of hope in the *weekly* chart (not shown) but nothing much yet (price has moved lethargically outside downtrend, a few indecisive candles, momentum flat lining)
> I can see no reason for taking a chance on them yet, what with the investing in China tech and real estate stocks. Reading that for me was a turn off worse than the receding funds.
> 
> Held
> ...




The switch to ETFs is a major factor in outflows. It's like the switch from VHS to DVD to the Cloud.


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## finicky (7 February 2022)

Platinum funds have outperformed MFG anyway. FUM up $457m, but net outflow of $134m.
Historic share price low of $2.35 recently. The price on the daily chart has either moved just outside the downtrend resistance line or is on the verge - depending on where you choose your line. Momentum has been signalling positive divergence for months. For my purposes it is technically a spec buy (albeit risky) if I were to ignore my negative macro vibe. I guess it will still pay a dividend too, that goes Ex starting March?

Held
Hold


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 February 2022)

finicky said:


> Platinum funds have outperformed MFG anyway. FUM up $457m, but net outflow of $134m.
> Historic share price low of $2.35 recently. The price on the daily chart has either moved just outside the downtrend resistance line or is on the verge - depending on where you choose your line. Momentum has been signalling positive divergence for months. For my purposes it is technically a spec buy (albeit risky) if I were to ignore my negative macro vibe. I guess it will still pay a dividend too, that goes Ex starting March?
> 
> Held
> ...



It is always sad to see a once great fund plummet.

I agree with your sentiments entirely @finicky but will await Mr.Markets’ lead.

gg


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## Sean K (8 February 2022)

With a general switch to value from growth in response to interest rate rises, perhaps Platinum will do a bit better. Maybe this change in the market will be the bottom for PTM? Let's look back in 5 years and see.


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## Dona Ferentes (8 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> The switch to ETFs is a major factor in outflows. It's like the switch from VHS to DVD to the Cloud




Rather, it is like a switch from the dodgem cars to the roller coaster


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 February 2022)

The problem that PTM and MFG face now is one that I am sure we have all faced, I have anyway, a big hit to FUM. 

The attendant loss often leads to a lack of confidence and the triumph of fear of loss over fear of missing out, at least temporarily. And temporary with funds is a 2-3 year vista. 

So their analysts will be punished for further losses coming through in their portfolios, thus leading to further conservatism and hesitant play. 

Adding to this is the market which is vastly overpriced in stocks which recently have attracted investment by these two cripples, tech and financials. While not seeing a crash, yet, I can see the market trading sideways for a while. 

So are they cheap at the moment?

I for one do not know to be honest. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (2 March 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The problem that PTM and MFG face now is one that I am sure we have all faced, I have anyway, a big hit to FUM.



_One way to get around that ..... (drum roll) 🥁 ..... Launch a new Fund_



> We will provide details of Platinum’s upcoming fund launch (launch is subject to regulatory approval) for those investors seeking *exposure to businesses critical to the global transition away from carbon.*


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## Dona Ferentes (13 April 2022)

and a multi-year low for the Fund Manager headstock.


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and a multi-year low for the Fund Manager headstock.



Divorce of major stakeholders never leads to a good ending.

Ask any ole Hamish picking up cigarette butts around Circular Quay. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (13 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and a multi-year low for the Fund Manager headstock.



Actually, an all-time low.
Under $2 (IPO?). 
Under GFC. 
Underwhelming.


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## divs4ever (13 April 2022)

yes , i bought a few PTM  , last week 

 and am willing to buy more cheaper ( but CAREFULLY )   i still expect a major financial disruption in the future , and plenty government regulation changes ( sadly )


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 June 2022)

Does anyone know whether Kerr Neilson's ex-missus has sold all her PTM shares yet. ?

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (6 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Does anyone know whether Kerr Neilson's ex-missus has sold all her PTM shares yet. ?
> 
> gg



I believe so; It should be in the narrative of this thread. (too busy / _uninterested _to check)


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## Dona Ferentes (20 September 2022)

Regal Partners has disclosed a 5.5 per cent stake in Platinum after the closing bell on Tuesday, fuelling speculation about its intentions regarding the fund manager.

The view is that Phil King, the equities market player behind Regal Funds Management, is looking to be trying to engineer a takeover of Platinum Asset Management without bidding himself.

King says he will not be making a bid for Platinum. But he would not be surprised if the $1 billion asset management company loses its independence.


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Regal Partners has disclosed a 5.5 per cent stake in Platinum after the closing bell on Tuesday, fuelling speculation about its intentions regarding the fund manager.
> 
> The view is that Phil King, the equities market player behind Regal Funds Management, is looking to be trying to engineer a takeover of Platinum Asset Management without bidding himself.
> 
> ...



Interesting.

gg


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## divs4ever (20 September 2022)

i hold PTM ( and PAI )

would have to see  the  folks  aiming to take control ( with or without a complete buyout )

 Geoff Wilson would have to be a name  that springs straight to mind  but SOL has been expanding ( although am not too sure if SOL is so keen on international exposure ) , but there would be other players if the price is right  ( an on-market/controlling stake play  might tempt some )


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