# CPA - Commonwealth Property Office Fund



## nulla nulla (10 July 2010)

There doesn't appear to be a thread for this share so I will start one off if anyone is interested.
As at close of trading on Friday 09 July 2010, cpa is priced at $0.945; 
cpa is alleged to have a net tangible asset backing of $1.11 per share; 
and based on the last 2 dividends for 2009/2010 of $0.0555, cpa has a yield of approximately 5.8%. 

There appears to be a lot of volatility in the recent price movement.  A chart for the last 18 months is below.


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## nulla nulla (19 July 2010)

One week on and cpa has climbed to $0.98 defying other market trends. At this point you would have to wonder if it can break through the resistance level arround $1.00 or will it start another downward leg in the channel?


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## nulla nulla (29 July 2010)

Ooops. Looks like option 2, southbound. CQO released a revaluation downgrade and the REIT sector appears to have caught its' cold. Mind you the devaluation was a minimal % adjustment and the market re-action appears to have over compensated by selling down, possibly, more than needed. 


Will $0.935 prove to be a support level or will it fall further? Make your own calls on possible re-entry points. Good luck.


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## nulla nulla (7 August 2010)

The eighteen month chart shows cpa trading in the upper band levels having bounced off the recent low of $0.92.

The macd chart shows cpa breaking above the moving average into positive territory and would suggest, if conditions stay favourable, that cpa will go higher and test the resistance levels arround the $1.00 mark.

The rsi chart suggests that cpa is only starting to move into the oversold levels. However a trailing stop loss to lock in profits would be a good idea if it fails to break through the previous upper resistance levels.

Naturally you should do your own research.


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## nulla nulla (8 August 2010)

The charts I referred to above are:

1. 18 Months as at 06-08-10




2. MACD as at 06-08-10




3. RSI as at 06-08-10




For whatever reason, yesterday the charts would not display, only the attachment number was being displayed.


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## nulla nulla (15 August 2010)

No warning, and a sharp retrace. Good thing we can have trailing stops to lock in profit if we haven't already jumped before the peak. Whether this is a temporary retrace that will see it bounce from here or whether it will drop to the high 80's remains to be seen.


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## UMike (15 August 2010)

I owned this a few times late 2009 and did very well.

But in these times I'd think the stock wasn't that great as a trading stock. 
I mean Long term it probably will be a great buy


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## nulla nulla (25 August 2010)

The lower highs and recent bouncing off the support level of $0.925 makes it look like the price is in danger of breaking out downwards. The next levels of support are $0.90 and $0.88. 
In my opinion the fundamentals don't justify the current low price. However the market may be anticipating the increased cost of any refinancing that may be due to be rolled over in the next 12 months.


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## nulla nulla (27 August 2010)

Looking for a bounce. Huge volumes today, bouncing above the support level of $0.92, closing the gap on the moving average and pointing away from oversold terittory. 

The RSI chart.




The MACD Chart.


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## nulla nulla (3 September 2010)

Nice bounce. A few of the other REIT's bounced to their recent highs also. Whether they will retrace from here or continue north remains to be seen.


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## stefan_invester (3 September 2010)

hm
The chart in the post above mine looks very similiar to the chart of
GMG, has also been trading in a range for the past few months, and just broke
out recently,
i wonder what the cause has been?
anyone got any ideas?
Stefan


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## nulla nulla (11 September 2010)

Dropping from $0.975 to $0.94 and then back to $0.97 in the space of 4 days demonstrates the uncertainty in the Australian REIT sector. 
The overriding influence at the moment appears to be the rising cost of finance from international banks, with REIT refinancing looking to be more expensive as loans fall due and need to be rolled over.

This is certainly a volatile period in the sector making it harder to identify entry and exit prices. Monday will be interesting.


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## nulla nulla (17 September 2010)

The price continues to fluctuate erratically, making it difficult to trade with any degree of confidence.


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## nulla nulla (24 September 2010)

Seven days on and the price has slipped back. If anything the share price is dropping, trending down ahead of the xao. If we have a sharp correction on the xao we could reasonably expect the cpa share price to test the support levels at the bottom of the recent channels.




The RSI chart shows the share starting into the over  sold area.




the macd shows the price gapping down on the moving average which would suggest we have further to fall.




Strap on the lifejackets, we appear to be in for stormy weather.


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## nulla nulla (1 October 2010)

Currently sitting on a support level, but at risk of falling through.




MACD chart.




RSI chart.




DYOR.


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## nulla nulla (9 October 2010)

Nice bounce (and a quick one) away from the support level of $0.92. Didn't have the legs to keep going over the desired exit target of $0.97. Got the staggers at $0.955 then finshed down yesterday at $0.945.

Volumes haven't been up to scratch this week. I suspect the rising Aud$ is making the REIT sector unatractive to overseas investors, the temptation being to sell rather than buy. Taking advantage of the improved conversion rate of the Aud$ to US$ and getting out.

Given the surge of the djia overnight to 11,006 we might have another up day on Monday on the xao which could see cpa test the $0.955 - $0.96 levels again. Otherwise.......


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## acreage (9 October 2010)

Thanks! very interesting read, look forward to following further.

post is considered too short so now fluffing out...................


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## nulla nulla (16 October 2010)

CPA is testing the support levels again. The macd chart shows the price gapping down from the moving average. Volumes however are above average suggesting for every seller there is a willling buyer. 
The appreciation of the Australian$ against the U.S$ is going to have a two-fold negative on Aussie reits that have properties in the U.S. Property values converted to Australian dollars will be reduced and their income streams will not convert as well as when the aud$ was lower. 
This combined with the higher cost of any forthcomming refinancing may lead to downward revisions of profit forecasts etc. Fortunately the bulk of CPA's properties are in Australia.


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## nulla nulla (22 October 2010)

One week on and cpa has decided the breakout, downwards through the support level of $0.92 and test a new support level of $0.905. everytime it looks like moving up from the $0.915 level it gets pushed back down to the $0.905 - $0.91 range. Didn't see this comming. Oversold in my opinion but what would I know.


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## nulla nulla (30 October 2010)

A period of uncertainty last week in the reit sector, with almost parity of the US$ negatively effecting the property portfolio valutions for reit's with U.S. holdings on the Australian balance sheets. Not good for share values in reporting season. Further additional impact on the sector with the sale by stockland group of their 238 million gpt shares at $2.75per share. The insto's taking up the offer had to raise funds somewhere and the volume of share sales across the reit sector spiked, pushing prices down.
CPA tested a new low but I would expect it to bounce from here, however with the new lower low, there could be a corresponding new lower high. The recent trend is a downward channel.


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## nulla nulla (6 November 2010)

The djia is rising on the back of Amercian Printing Presses rolling out new money. The xao is creeping back above 4800, some expecting it to have another go at 5000 on the back of surging resource prices. However reit's are struggling, with cpa finding resistance this week at $0.935 - $0.94 and falling back to close the week at $0.92. Even the release of revised positive property valuations could not lift it closer to the net tangible asset value.


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## nulla nulla (13 November 2010)

In the three days before cpa went into a trading halt, the price was pushed down to from $0.92 to $0.90. Hard to see if this was simply evidence of cpa trading in a downward channel or the results of institutions in the know pushing the price down to get a better discounted price for the capital raising. 

The discount price to retail holders will be $0.86 with an entitlement of 1 for every 15 held. 

The acquisitions will be earnings positive and the washout of the new issue will have only a small impact on net tangible assets. The property portfolio will improve going from 2 quality properties in melbourne to 5.

It will be interesting to see if the institutions sell their uptake down to this level, erasing the benefit to retail holders taking up the offer as against buying cheaper on market.

Not withstanding, in my opinion, if it does get pushed down to the $0.86 level it would still be a good entry point for a short to medium term trade. Do your own research etc.


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## nulla nulla (19 November 2010)

Okay, I have to admit I didn't see this coming. With the quick take up of the book build by the institutions at $0.86 and the retail offering at the same price being underwritten I expected the price to hold up at the $0.86 level. Worst case scenario I thought it might test the $0.84 level for the issue to Grollo.

The drop to $0.82 seems to be an oversell to me. Closing today on $0.83 today represents a significant discount to net tangible assets, particularly as the dividends are expected to be maintained at the present level and the debt/gearing levels are at lows in line with the stated policy of the company. 

It will be interesting to see if the retail offer at $0.86 is fully subscribed, given holders can currently pick up shares between $0.825 - $0.83.


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## UMike (25 November 2010)

In again @82c and willing to double up @ ~80c.

Dividend at Christmass should make any small (paper) loss seem palateble if any.


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## nulla nulla (25 November 2010)

Testing $0.815 cpa continues to trade at a huge discount (25%) to the revised Net Tangible Assets value of $1.09. Apparantly the two key factors causing the low price are: 

1. The substantial capital raising by Westfields has contributed to a general sell down of Australian REIT shares as fund managers looking to take up their entitlement reweight their portfolios (sell off other shares) to raise the nessary capital to participate; and
2. Some CPA holders were not happy with the extent of the discount of the Issue (against the NTA) to the institutions and grollo, and have expressed their displeasure by selling off.

Regardless, the current price ($0.82) is roughly 25% discount to NTA and with the 2011 dividend expected to be $0.055, this provides a yield of 6.7%.

Personaly, I expect cpa to recover above $0.92 but do your own research.


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## IB12 (25 November 2010)

I was just taking a quick glance of the thread from start to finish. 
Funny how all that technical analysis just went out the door when that big diluted retail offer came in.


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## skc (25 November 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Testing $0.815 cpa continues to trade at a huge discount (25%) to the revised Net Tangible Assets value of $1.09. Apparantly the two key factors causing the low price are:
> 
> 1. The substantial capital raising by Westfields has contributed to a general sell down of Australian REIT shares as fund managers looking to take up their entitlement reweight their portfolios (sell off other shares) to raise the nessary capital to participate; and
> 2. Some CPA holders were not happy with the extent of the discount of the Issue (against the NTA) to the institutions and grollo, and have expressed their displeasure by selling off.
> ...




You seem fixated on CPA... plenty of other REITs offering similar value/return.

CFX, 0.87 (price/NTA), 7.1% (yield)
DXS, 0.83, 6.46%
GMG, 1.34, 5.4%
GPT, 0.81, 6.01%
IOF, 0.8, 6.61%
CQO, 0.68, 6.51%

If you are bullish on the sector may be SLF can cover them all.


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## nulla nulla (26 November 2010)

Not fixated on cpa. Just noticed that there was no thread for it so I started one. I try to limit my posts to the end of each week. 

I trade several reits on the swings, among the watchlist of shares traded.


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## nulla nulla (26 November 2010)

CPA tested $0.815 for the second day running but managed to close on $0.825 with the majority of the days turnover going through at $0.82.

The RSI chart shows cpa as oversold but trending back to neutral mainly because the moving average is gapping down to the current share price rather than the share price gapping up to the moving average.




The MACD chart shows the price holding, closing on the moving average. Volumes were lower today than the moving average.




The chart I am not keen on is this one. The Multiple Moving Averages are spreading as the share tracks downward.


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## nulla nulla (4 December 2010)

Not sure if this will work but this week I am posting some additional information in addition to the charts. I learnt of a "open" short sales report at the ASIC, the link is:

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument

According to the report on 03/12/2010 there were 20,703,355 shares reported as "open" short sales for cpa, todays report shows the number of "open" short sales for cpa has dropped to 16,259,991 shares. This would suggest some traders are trading cpa on the expectation that the price will go lower.

This made me curious to compare the "open" short position with the daily  Short data from the ASX. http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt The following is the cpa data extracted over the last three or so weeks:

15-11-10 Total sales 30,430,216 Gross Short Sales 10,470,404   34.40%
16-11-10 Total sales 17,935,389 Gross Short Sales 17,935,389   38.59%
17-11-10 Total sales 15,954,817 Gross Short Sales 4,269,451     26.76%
18-11-10 Total sales 27,787,221 Gross Short Sales 15,379,611   55.34%
19-11-10 Total sales 11,560,221 Gross Short Sales 5,466,747     47.28%
22-11-10 Total sales 14,568,279 Gross Short Sales 6,929,092     47.56%
23-11-10 Total sales 16,924,889 Gross Short Sales 9,583,113     56.62%
24-11-10 Total sales 11,259,993 Gross Short Sales 1,126,480     10.00%
25-11-10 Total sales 26,613,270 Gross Short Sales 5,044,983     18.95%
26-11-10 Total sales 10,351,446 Gross Short Sales 4,079,337     39.40%
29-11-10 Total sales 8,092,301   Gross Short Sales 2,459,552     30.39%
30-11-10 Total sales 5,078,952   Gross Short Sales 646,917        12.73%
*01-12-10 Total sales 30,407,443 Gross Short Sales 25,656,181    84.37%*
02-12-10 Total sales 33,505,849 Gross Short Sales 4,333,410      12.93%

The short volume turned over on Wednesday 01-12-10, 84.37% of the days turnover, is greater than the "open" short trades as at 03-12-10. It looks like a few "open" positions were closed out in the following 2 days, which could explain the closing price of $0.84.


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## nulla nulla (9 December 2010)

Turns out the A.S.I.C "open short sales" report is six (6) days behind where the ASX report is for the number of shares shorted on the previous day. 
The A.S.I.C. report is almost useless to get an indication of "open" short sales at any given time as the open trades could be closed out without the market knowing at any time. 
I wonder if the big players borrowing shares to short the market lobbied for the delay or is A.S.I.C. incapable of providing a genuine end of previous days update.


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## nulla nulla (9 December 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Turns out the A.S.I.C "open short sales" report is six (6) days behind where the ASX report is for the number of shares shorted on the previous day.
> The A.S.I.C. report is almost useless to get an indication of "open" short sales at any given time as the open trades could be closed out without the market knowing at any time.
> I wonder if the big players borrowing shares to short the market lobbied for the delay or is A.S.I.C. incapable of providing a genuine end of previous days update.




Turns out the report is compiled on information provided "globaly" by 7:00pm each trading day then released after a further three (3) trading days as a "compromise" to the parties providing the data. 
For instance "open" short positions are updated on Monday at 7:00pm and the report is released on Friday (generally arround 1:00pm).


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## nulla nulla (17 December 2010)

Tested the $0.865 level before closing on $0.86 (being the spp price). Good recovery from the lows of $0.815 and $0.82 but a long way from the revised NTA of $1.09 and the normal trading range of $0.90 - $0.97. 
A dividend advice of $0.0275 today may help push the price up before it goes exdiv. However it wouldn't be good if the market has factored in the div at todays close of $0.86.


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## nulla nulla (27 December 2010)

After going exdiv cpa took a small tumble before consolidating arround the $0.85. This is a little dissapointing given the adjusted nta of $1.09 (with the acquisitions and new share issues). Even the revised valuations notice lifting the nta didn't appear to impress.


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## nulla nulla (2 January 2011)

Friday 31-12-2010 and some end of year profit taking and/or portfolio reweighting by fund managers (?) saw the share price slapped back to $0.83 in the closing auction. The only good thing out of Thursday & Friday's buy sell action is that cpa will start January 2011 from a low point of $0.83 and I elected to run with cpa for the tipping competition in January.


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## nulla nulla (15 January 2011)

cpa dropped back to $0.82 in the first week of January 2011. In the second week it tested $0.845 before closing on $0.835. At this price the yield (on 5.64 cents per share) is 6.75%. Additionaly the price earnings multiple is a respectably low 14.18. The price to nta is at a discount of 26%. 
imo what sets cpa apart from the other Australian reit's is that cpa's dividend is paid wholly from earnings.


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## nulla nulla (23 January 2011)

The entry price gets better and the share seems to have more difficulty recovering to a realistic price than can be logically explained. For the moment the trade prospects appear to be to buy at this level and be prepared to unload at $0.835+. Recent movement in the REIT sector doesn't inspire confidence in a quick rebound. 
Whispers of take-overs and mergers abound but no one is game enough to say which ones.


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## nulla nulla (25 January 2011)

Hit $0.86 today but ran into heavy resistance, closed out two parcels at $0.855 and continure to hold 4 more parcels looking for the longer term recovery. Will re-enter if it drops back to or below $0.83.


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## UMike (27 January 2011)

Well my long standing 81c order expired Tuesday unforfilled. 
Went close though

I'll be happy if it keeps going up now.
Wth the cheque in the mail....All is good.


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## nulla nulla (27 January 2011)

Received a write up in the fairfax papers this week as one of the stocks to buy for 2011. Bounced and closed on $0.875 today. Looks like it could go higher tomorrow. Hopefully cpa will run up to a level closer to the nta, or at least back to it's previous trading range between $0.90 - $0.97.


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## nulla nulla (28 January 2011)

Traded all day between $0.875 and $0.88 then in the auction jumped to close on $0.885. Big spike in volume traded as well. Could have been an element of shorters closing, dunno. Hopefully, next week we will see the run continue to the low $0.90's, however it could just as easily retrace below $0.86.


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## nulla nulla (5 February 2011)

Treading water in the $0.87 - $0.89 range. Still has a large volume of open short sales (according to the ASIC register). Still at a large discount to NTA and only slightly above the recent capital raising of $0.86. Could be gathring for a break out or just as easily a retrace. Influencing factors, imo, tend to favour further gains ahead. As always "do your own research".


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## nulla nulla (11 February 2011)

The missus predicted that cpa was going to struggle to get past the $0.89 level. I looked at the Relative strength chart and decided that I agreed with her. I managed to unload half a small parcel to lock in the profit and will re-enter if it drops past the moving average at $0.86.


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## nulla nulla (19 February 2011)

CPA appears to be trying to break out above the $0.89 level but is meeting incredible resistance. Personaly I can't work out where the price is going. Most other REIT's have enjoyed a recent improvement and some, like Dexus, have narrowed the gap between share price and nta. CPA seems to be dragging the chain getting back to the price levels it was at prior to the Melbourne acquisitions.
I believe cpa should be trading higher but there appears to be a few hedge funds (with a large volume of open short sales accumulated between $0.82 and $0.89) that expect cpa to go lower? As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (26 February 2011)

I liked the report, I took the dividend and I was looking for CPA to do a run up after going exdiv like Dexus did. Unfortunately there was to much resistance in the $0.885 - $0.89 bracket. 

After what seemed like days of trying to break through the $0.89 level, cpa nosedived back to $0.845 which is below the recent capital raising price.

There is still a large amount of open trades registered with A.S.I.C which appear to have been purchased between $0.82 and $0.86. Someone has either made a big mistake or knows what they are doing and still expects cpa to go lower.
Stuffed if I know, but at the current price I topped up. I still expect it to climb back into the low $0.90's........eventualy . As always DYOR.


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## nulla nulla (4 March 2011)

Closing the week on a high of $0.88, my top up at $0.85 is in the money.  CPA appears to be under a lot of constraint and it is hard to decide whether to close out the trade at $0.88 and lock in the profit or to hold and see if it can break through the resistance at $0.89? 

At this stage I am continuing to hold. CPA has refinanced debt that was due later this year for a further three years at favourable rates. A meeting is due in the next week to vote on the shares issued to cover the Melbourne Office purchases (rubber stamp?) and CPA is unlikely to be one of the parties looking to buy centro shopping centres so it is unlikely to be going back to members to raise funds in the near future. Employment figures released recently were good, office space is in demand, yields are up and there is more confidence for the future in commercial real estate. I expect the gap betwen the current xhare price and the nta of $1.10 to narrow considerably. The only fly in the oinment is the high number of open short sales taken out between $0.82 and $0.85.


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## nulla nulla (13 March 2011)

Falling from last weeks close of $0.88 cpa was lucky to hold $0.86 at close on Friday. Turnover appeared to be mostly at $0.87 through Fridays trade but crashed just before 4.00pm and dropped further in the auction to finish at $0.86. Through-out the day, cpa was holding up while the rest of the market was drifting down. Some one was buying but in the end the sellers won out.


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## nulla nulla (19 March 2011)

cpa bounced off $0.81 twice this week before closing on $0.835. Significant turnover, the reaction to the nuclear crisis in Japan had the effect of pushing the price way down. 

It will be interesting to see next week whether this sell down provided the shorters with the opportunity to close out some of the outstanding short sales or whether they are still holding out for cpa to go lower.


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## nulla nulla (26 March 2011)

Solid gains this week saw cpa close on $0.86. Recent activity and conditions make me cautious as to whether this is a trend that cpa can continue or whether it is peaking and will drop back from here.


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## nulla nulla (2 April 2011)

cpa managed to close on $0.87 after battling to break through $0.865 during the week, being pushed back to close on $0.86 twice after testing the $0.865 - $0.87 range.

It has the appearance of a share trying to break out upwards and may achieve this if the market continues it's optimistic trend. However the AUD$ is also testing new highs and this isn't an incentive for overseas investors to jump into our REIT's. As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (8 April 2011)

Not a lot has changed. The Aud$ continues to gain against the US$. CPA continues to drag a load of "open short sales" and the price struggles to reach parity with the NTA. 

Today was probably the best day cpa has had for a while testing $0.885. 

I have closed out three parcels at $0.875 this week locking in the profit and freeing up some capital. I continue to hold another three parcels looking for further gains. It might be a while though but the div helps.


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## nulla nulla (17 April 2011)

cpa appears to have found a new trading range between $0.82 and $0.88, give or take half a cent. The share dropped along with the rest of the market with the japanese nuclear reactor meltdown and appears to be struggling to recover.

The rising aud$ does not give overseas investors any incentive to re-enter the Australian REIT market. If the dollar should fall, any increase in share price would only mean the overseas investor is only treading water. A share price fall combined with the retrace of the aud$ against the u.s$ would mean a double loss. Probably too risky, better profits for them elsewhere.

At the current price, local investors are probably topping up and the large "open short" contingent are probably closing out some of their exposure locking in profits. No doubt if the price sneaks up so will the number of "open short" sales until the price collapses again under the selling presure. There is a patern there for those with an appetite for risk and the ability to play the waiting game. As always do your own research.


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## nulla nulla (21 April 2011)

Took two parcels at $0.84 but missed the entry opportunity at $0.835. Can't always pick the highs and lows but am happy to be close.

Put the parcels straight into the sell queues at $0.865 and $0.87. Closed one out yesterday and the second out today. 

Was surprised it jumped so quickly this week to close on $0.885. However a few of the REIT's had a good run today. Maybe they are having their overdue bounce.

Have already put a buy in for $0.835 but will watch the market, may have to revise it upward.


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## nulla nulla (29 April 2011)

I read an article in the paper that, when the aud$ hit parity, some large international hedge funds shorted the aud$ heavily. Then when the aud$ fell after the Japanese crisis they increased their short positions. However this week after the sell down of the u.s$ (and the spike of the aud$), the large international hedge funds are alleged to have closed out their short positions at a loss rather than incur further losses.

Watching the a.s.i.c daily open short sales reports I have noticed that the open shorts on cpa have reduced from the low 20 millions of shares to mid teens. It would appear that the shorters have been closing out to avoid the double whammy of the rising share price and the rising aud$. I suspect that this has helped pushed the cpa share price up to todays closing price of $0.915 (still a considerable gap on the NTA though).

Given the strengh of the close for a Friday, I would not be surprised to see cpa test the low to mid $0.90's next week. I hope so as I chose cpa for the May tipping comp, and starting from $0.915 is a lot harder than starting from $0.86.

As always DYOR.


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## nulla nulla (8 May 2011)

Finished the week on $0.90. Was pushed down to $0.885 on interday trading a couple of times but rallied then didn't have the buyer support strength to push back to the $0.91 plus area. $0.885 was a recent resistance level, maybe it could now become a support level. CPA still attracts a large volume of daily short selling action. 

In the absence of any good news I wouldn't be surprised to see the price drift down. The chart suggests the recent lows are getting higher (as are the recent highs). There appears to be returning support to the Australain REIT market but the higher dollar would make it unlikely that the support is comming from overseas hedge funds unless there is a huge discount to nta (like Valid) making the fund a possible takeover target.


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## nulla nulla (14 May 2011)

The CPA share price of $0.90 - $0.905 started the week as a point of resistance then became a point of support on Wednesday/Thursday, making cpa look like it was trying to break out upwards. And that is exactly what it did on Friday pushing up to $0.925 - $0.93 before closing on $0.925.

The volume traded was up as well, with several large parcels being cross traded. The upward spike looks way over due and could signal a narrowing of the gap between the share price and the NTA.

BUT....yes there is a but and a big one as well. The report produced by the A.S.I.C, in respect of "open short sales" at the end of each day, shows that the number of open short trades on CPA rose from arround 13 million shares when cpa share price was arround $0.83 - $0.84 to the mid 20 millions when the share price hit $0.885 - $0.90 and then increased to over 30 million shares (as open short sales) when the share price hit $0.905 - $0.91. In my opinion, one of two things are going to happen in the very near future:

1. The "Shorters" have got it right and the price will fall back; or
2. The shorters have got it really badly wrong and the share price is going to go back toward the upper $0.95 - $0.975+ ranges.

If they are right per 1. then the price will drop, they will close out their shorts, take their profits and swing traders will be presented with another opportunity to trade the next rise.

If they are wrong per 2. then the price will sneak higher, then could surge as the shorters are forced to close out their trades (and wear their losses) before their exposure to potential losses gets even bigger.

And just to make it even more interesting, cpa is due to announce a dividend in the next 6 weeks or so.

As always do your own research and don't be influence by anything I post. What would I know.


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## skc (14 May 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The CPA share price of $0.90 - $0.905 started the week as a point of resistance then became a point of support on Wednesday/Thursday, making cpa look like it was trying to break out upwards. And that is exactly what it did on Friday pushing up to $0.925 - $0.93 before closing on $0.925.
> 
> The volume traded was up as well, with several large parcels being cross traded. The upward spike looks way over due and could signal a narrowing of the gap between the share price and the NTA.
> 
> ...




CPA is the strongest of the big REITs of late. I trade it a lot against CFX which is languishing at the bottom of its range. If there is a short squeeze on CPA that would be the perfect time to go short...


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## nulla nulla (16 May 2011)

skc said:


> CPA is the strongest of the big REITs of late. I trade it a lot against CFX which is languishing at the bottom of its range. If there is a short squeeze on CPA that would be the perfect time to go short...




The report issued by the ASIC today indicates that open short trades in cpa as at 10 May 2011 is up to 39 million. The ASX daily (arrears) update shows the volume of trade in cpa is rising and the percentage of daily shorts is also rising. Care should be taken linking the daily shorted volume ASX report to the ASIC report as there is no way of knowing what proportion of the daily short trades are closed before the end of the day. Also while the ASX report is one day behind, the ASIC report is 3-4 days behind and totally reliant on the timeliness of the submitions. 

It would appear at the moment, however, that there is a buyer for every seller. Opening today at $0.905 cpa looked like following the xao down, then there was a rally that saw the price push up to its close of $0.935, rising while the rest of the market fell. If I was a shorter I would be concerned that cpa is capable of breaking out above this point. 

IMO There is not a lot that is negative atm about cpa that would inspire confidence in going for the big short. Obviously everyone does their own risk reward assessment and holders of 39 million shares are punting the risk that they will close out lower.


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## nulla nulla (20 May 2011)

Well the punters have been upping the ante and the open shorts, last report released today shows the open shorts have gone past 42 million. CPA hit a recent high of $0.935 but did well to hold $0.905 today after touching $0.885 under heavy selling pressure.
Don't be surprised to see it push lower next week. DYOR, The share is good but the sentiment is unpredictable.


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## nulla nulla (27 May 2011)

Open shorts increased however when the share price clawed back to the low $0.90's the shorters closed down their positions reducing to 32 million from a peak of 49 million open short sales. 

The price continues to test the $0.915 level and didn't fall back as I previously expected. If any thing the volume traded at $0.90, $0.905 and $0.91 Wednesday, Thursday and today would suggest to me that there was a lot of closing out of short positions. 

The share is closing in on an Exdiv date in the next few weeks and could tempt a few punters willing to buy in at the current price for the div. At the present price, cpa is still a big discount to nta and has to be considered as one of the least risk Australian reits. I still can't work out why it is being shorted so heavily.

As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (6 June 2011)

The resistance level of $0.915 was broken and then appears to have beome a support level. The invovlement of international hedge funds clamouring to gain footage in CQO and Valad appears to have generated interest in the reits trading at a discount to nta. 

Some of the big ones like sgp and wdc took a haircut, but cpa, dxs, gpt and iof appear to be getting some long overdue attention and support.

Can it break through $0.95?  As always DYOR.


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## UMike (8 June 2011)

Looks like it has broke through 95c today.

I got rid of mine @95c just in case.


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## nulla nulla (8 June 2011)

UMike said:


> Looks like it has broke through 95c today.
> 
> I got rid of mine @95c just in case.




I admit that I have trouble working out what is going on with cpa, I had been expecting a retrace but it keeps pushing ahead while the rest of the market is dipping. The share price was previously trading in a broad range of $0.90 to $0.975. This was discounted to NTA, however the assets are Australian based therefore the income and valuations are not subjected to currency movements.

When cpa acquired the Melbourne assets, issuing shares at $0.86 to finance it, some parties took exception to the discount and bailed out pushing the share price lower. Personaly I consider this smacks of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Not withstanding, cpa dropped to $0.81 well below nta. 

Surprisingly a lot of shorting then took place as if cpa could be pushed lower. The ASIC open shorts climbed over 42 million shares in this low range. Foolishly I allowed this to influence my decisions to acquire more cpa in the range $0.885 - $0.915. cpa has now climbed back into the mid $0.90's ($0.955) putting it back on par with the Australian based reit's (subject to discounted nta's).

Accordingly, I have revised my entry points upwards and expect cpa to trade between $0.905 and $0.975. Naturally I can expect to be proven wrong in the future. Particularly as cpa will go exdiv on or about 24/6/11. Also a lot of reits suffered as overseas funds were pulled out as the aud$ climbed. The rise in the aud$ was like a double bonus to overseas investors, rise in share price and rising $, time to take the profit. Volumes of turnover appear to have dropped accordingly since.

As always, do your own research and good luck. Nothing is easy, you have to work for it.


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## UMike (10 June 2011)

I couldn't work out why they went so low either.

I'm trying to write this tactfully as i do do my own research but I enjoy reading your thoughts on this and a couple of other shares. Even if you think you are talking to your self I am sure there are a few reading and nodding their heads.

Happy to get back into CPA and a couple of other REITs on the next dip.


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## nulla nulla (10 June 2011)

UMike said:


> I couldn't work out why they went so low either.
> 
> I'm trying to write this tactfully as i do do my own research but I enjoy reading your thoughts on this and a couple of other shares. Even if you think you are talking to your self I am sure there are a few reading and nodding their heads.
> 
> Happy to get back into CPA and a couple of other REITs on the next dip.




Thank you for the feedback. For a while there I wondered if I was wasting time and space posting, then I realised from the number of "views" others were reading the thread. I take the lack of negative feed back as comfort that I am not entirely wasting my (and everyone elses') time. Also, posting helps me maintain my perspective of this stock (and a few other REIT's).

Today I am posting a Two and a half year chart. I think it is time to re-appraise where cpa has come from and where it might be going to (mainly because I sold my last parcel at $0.935 and the share price kept going).

CPA has a NTA of $1.10. At $0.96 it has; a yield of 5.88%; an earnings per share (eps) of $0.0997; a dividend of $0.0564 per share; and a price earnings ratio of 9.63. This is a fairly solid share, discounted approximately 13% to NTA. This discount is fairly tight when you compare it to other REIT's. 

Despite the number of open "short" sales on cpa registered with ASIC as at three days ago (48 million), I have revised my entry points on cpa upwards. I could be disasterously wrong, often am, so I recommend that everyone do their own reasearch. 

In the present economic envoronment with the xao arround the 4620 mark, I expect cpa to peak and retrace in the near future and will be looking for re-entry points on the dip.


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## nulla nulla (16 June 2011)

While the xao was tanking by 88 points, cpa was busy defying the odds and holding $0.97 interday before holding $0.965 in the close. 
Narrowing the gap against nta with the AUD$ holding at U.S$1.05 is nothing short of amazing. Huge number of open short trades and cpa appears determined not to buckle.

Can it go higher or will the shorters prevail and send the share price down? DYOR. I have a few buy orders in the lower ranges ...just in case cpa buckles under the load.


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## nulla nulla (23 June 2011)

While the xao has been suffering a creeping demise cpa has rallied and held its' recent highs. Moving in the tight band between $0.95 and todays interday high of $0.975 . I have found it impossible to trade.

It trades ex-div tomorrow maybe there will be an oversell providing an entry opportunity, maybe pigs will fly as well. The open shorts list with ASIC has dropped from 52 million to 40 million (probably some of them deciding against holding it short when it goes ex-div and being liable for the dividend). Hopefully cpa will settle back into the trading range between $0.89 and $0.975.


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## nulla nulla (2 July 2011)

CPA appears to be finding reasonable volume support at the $0.935+ levels. Could finaly be closing the gap between Share Price and NTA. The current support accross most of the Australian REIT's certainly is flowing into CPA. 




Could have something to do with the quality properties making up the portfolio. Then again it could be short term irrational exuberance waiting to catch the unwary  (Two bob each way, DYOR).


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## nulla nulla (8 July 2011)

Volumes seemed to drop off this week, possibly because the overseas hedge fund building a stake has stopped buying up. The share price has drifted down to test $0.92 yesterday and today. Hopefully the previous resistance level at $0.915 can become a support level keeping the share price in closer proximity to the nta.




If not the next support level is $0.895.


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## nulla nulla (13 July 2011)

It is possible in the present destabilised environment for cpa to continue downward. 

I had two (2) low ball bids waiting in the queue at $0.91 and $0.89. The bid at $0.91 (50k) was filled on Monday and the bid at $0.89 (50k) was partially filled (25,240 in two dips below $0.895) on Tuesday. CPA relased a notice to the ASX in regard the sale of Perth Assets and a resulting special dividend to be announced with the annual results in August. The share jumped back up to $0.90 - $0.905 when it re-opened and closed for the day on $0.905.

After last nights fallout on the international scene it would not surprise me if the rest of my order at $0.89 is filled today.


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## nulla nulla (15 July 2011)

Got the rest of my buy order at $0.89, then the price fell through to $0.885. At one stage the share price looked like going through to $0.88 then held with good support at $0.89 - $0.895. Volumes were good and having opened at $0.89 and closed at $0.895 means we have the first green bar on the chart after 11 red down days.




A bounce from here would be good, but I suspect it may be the proposed capital return from the sale of the Perth assets to be announced on 16 August that is helping prop the price up while the rest of the REIT's are sliding. We live in interesting times.


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## nulla nulla (22 July 2011)

Bouncing off $0.885 cpa moved upward on moderate volumes to test $0.93 today. The support wasn't strong enough to make much impression on $0.93 with the bulk of the turnover at $0.925. Never-the-less, cpa appears to have bucked the downward trend and being office based it is not suffering the downward presure like those reits with a significant retail exposure in their portfolio's.




The report in respect of the capital return is not due for another 3-4 weeks. It will be interesting to see whether or not CPA holds at these levels or starts to creep back up on the back of good reports comming out of Europe/U.S.A.


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## nulla nulla (29 July 2011)

The reports comming out of Europe improved but world focus shifted to the U.S. debt ceiling and the political impasse developing over which political party has the solution and the votes to get it through. cpa took a dive back to $0.91 then announced that they had sold the George St Sydney building for a 15% profit on the December 2010 valuation and a big capital gain on the initial purchase price. 

While the rest of the reit market (other than dxs & iof) drifted down, cpa surged up to $0.95 - $0.955 on the prospects of even more capital return to share holders topping up from the proceeds from the Perth office sales. 

The anouncement that some of the proceeds would be used to retire debt, some may go back to unit holders and some would be kept for "opportunities" seemed to cool the punters. After tapping $0.96 interday, cpa fell back to $0.95 in the close.




With the uncertainty in the international arena, I elected to sell off at $0.95 and take my profit off the table. It may go up again next week but I'm sure there will be further opportunities down the road.


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## nulla nulla (7 August 2011)

The market tanked following the international guidance and cpa dropped like a stone with the market, touching $0.89. The announcement that they have sold a 50% share in the "Money Box" building (Former Commonwealth Bank Building in Sydney CBD) helped arrest the fall and cpa climbed bak to $0.915 - $0.92. 

The U.S rating down grade, announced after close of market, will make Monday and Tuesdays price action interesting. 

From the proceeds of sale CPA will be:

1. Retiring debt;
2. Making a return to unit holders by special distribution; and
3. Looking for suitable oportunities.




With the sales, retirement of debt and return of proceeds to unit holders the NTA per share will drop accordingly. However the reduced debt levels and current strength of the portfolio along with the return to share holders, should be attractive enough to prevent a fall anywhere near like the one in the gfc mkI. IMO dyo as always


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## UMike (12 August 2011)

Back in again.

Looking forward to the FY11 results 16 August.


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## nulla nulla (12 August 2011)

CPA held up at $0.855 against the panic trend on Tuesday only to falter and double bounce off $0.84 on Thursday and Friday. While the rest of the ASX (except banks) lifted today, cpa went into reverse with volumes turning over as it pushed down through $0.845 to $0.84.  While the share price clawed a little back before the close to $0.85 the over all picture is not promising.




The MACD shows that the share price is gapping down with the gap opening up. Volumes were up earlier in the week but were not as high today.




The RSI shows the share price is oversold  but the sell strentgh suggests there could be a little more downside to come. 




The good news is that cpa is about to announce the results for this year on Tuesday 16 August. They should also be advising of the extent of the special dividend from the proceeds of the sales of 3 Perth properties and 1 & 1/2 Sydney properties. 
IMO cpa is due for a bounce and I would be surprised if we don't get one early next week. Then again Germany could announce that they need a bailout as well as France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece and our market will have another melt down. As always DYOR.


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## nulla nulla (20 August 2011)

So much for the announcement. The special div from the proceeds of the Perth sale (which I expected to be increased from the proceeds of the Sydney sales) has now become a "potential" special div of $0.006 cents per share. Yep less than one cent per share, impressive eh.




The price spiked up to $0.90 along with the bounce from the rest of the market but dropped back to $0.855 with Thursdays and Fridays market reversal and I will not be surprised to see it test lower on Monday/Tuesday next week. Normaly I would be looking for a trade entry arround this level but with the herd sentiment the way it is I am proceeding cautiously. As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (30 August 2011)

A highly conditional take over bid for CQO came out of the woodwork and the gap between the share price and the NTA closed dramatically. There was a definite flow on effect accross the Australian reit sector and cpa went along for the ride jumping to $0.935. Still at a huge gap to nta.


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## UMike (30 August 2011)

Well I've been first in line at  95.5c for a while now. Might sell today regardless.


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## nulla nulla (2 September 2011)

cpa continued to climb throught the week reaching $0.97 before retracing today but but managed to hold $0.96 at close. 




Question now is whether it can go higher (on the Australian REIT takeover & merger hype) or is it about to dive under the influence of sovereign debt issues?  All we can do is watch and trade when we feel brave enough.


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## nulla nulla (10 September 2011)

Slowly drifting back down after the merger/takeover hype ran out of puff and the global volatility slapped our market arround. Monday will probably have further downward movement if the lead from Europe and the U.S.A is anything to go by. 





Could present a buy opportunity for another trade, however it could continue to get cheaper in the next few days as our market flops arround.


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## nulla nulla (1 October 2011)

The volitility of the market is reflected in the price swings in cpa. Plenty of opportunity for the stout hearted / foolhardy. Trying to read where the market is going and the mood swings of the herd is harder than....(insert own preference here).




Any rate I thought $0.90 was a good entry point on Friday even if it did close at $0.895 and the rest of the world tanked overnight. Might have to hold for a few days for the upswing. Might even accumulate more if it really tanks. As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (7 October 2011)

Accumulated more at $0.87 (so naturally the share price dropped to $0.86, tested $0.855). Bloody crystal balls are getting very unreliable lately. However the three year chart suggests that, in the abscence of Greece sinking into the mediteranean sea, cpa should recover from this point.




After the surge in the close on the djia, combined with the big jump on the ftse and dax last night, our markets should be good for another small lift before the friday afternoon sell off. No doubt there will still be a lot of "smart" sellers selling into the rises of the "Smart" buyers chasing bargains. As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (24 October 2011)

Two weeks on from the last post and cpa has jumped off the bottom of the channel and is once again head butting the top of the channel. 




Question 1: Can cpa consolidate, break out and go higher to close the gap to the NTA value?  or 
Question 2: Is cpa due for a retrace? 

Your call, as always dyor


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## nulla nulla (29 October 2011)

CPA appears to be consolidating at the current levels. If the Euro issues continue to work toward resolution it seems the REIT's may look attractive again for the longer term investors and may even become bullish.




Mind you the gap to NTA is narrowing and there isn't much play room between 
Fridays closing price and the top of the recent channel. There may be a tight trade for the stouthearted and supremely confident (crazy?), otherwise it might pay to wait until the crystal ball is giving clearer signals.  As always DYOR.


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## nulla nulla (12 November 2011)

After trading in a tight band between $0.935 and $0.955 cpa faded this last week falling past the support level of $0.925 to close on $0.92 (after testing $0.91). It would appear that the off market buy back has created more uncertainty than clarity with this stock. 

Another issue for cpa, which is hanging in limbo, is the previously mooted special dividend to unit holders involving some of the proceeds from the Western Australian property sales. Returning $50 - $100 million to share holders (through the off market buy back) is only a fraction of the proceeds realised from all the property sales. Also, buying back between $50 - $100 million worth of shares will barely make a dint in the number of shares on issue. It will be interesting to see the level of acceptance/participation and the buy back price. Setting a maximum of $0.97 was certainly optimistic if the recent price levels are anything to go by. Maybe cpa are trying to mop up the smaller holdings rather than do a real share market buy back like those being run by IOF, GPT and SGP.




Gearing (debt) is already at good low levels so the pressure to pay down debt is non existant. There is obviously more funds available for distribution unless the managment is planning to acquire more properties and roll the funds back in. I hope they aren't planning to distribute it via bonuses and pay rises.


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## nulla nulla (20 November 2011)

For thirteen straight trading days the cpa share price has slumped from the recent high of $0.955 and looks to have lost all prospects of reaching the "Off market share buy-back" cap of $0.97 or narrowing the gap to the alleged nta.




The paperwork for the Off Market buy back arrived and the invitation is for holders to nominate minimum prices of $0.86, $0.88 and $0.90 with options of nominating premiums of 2% - 5% with a maximum price of $0.97. Further the market price will be set by determing the average of the daily average for the five days preceding the close of the offer. At the current rate of decline the market value will be less than $0.90. 

If cpa received a take over offer of $0.90 you would expect the independent directors to knock it back. Yet here they are with an "Off Market buy back offer" to shareholders for a price that will be way off the nta and likely no where near the offer "cap" of $0.97.

Sometimes you wonder if the directors stopped to consider whether there are some share holders on their books who purchased cpa before the GFC. Shareholders that have seen the share price slump, been diluted by capital raisings and seen yields on their original investment drop to basement levels. 

These people would probably have been greatful for a capital return or special div and probably see the "Off market" buy back as a furtive attempt by the board to mop up their shares eliminating any prospects of them ever recovering a better proportion of their capital. Personally I think the directors could have looked at how GPT, IOF, MAP and SGP have gone about returning capital to shareholders. 




IMO the longe term paterns have been disrupted by the buy back and any trading entry at the moment would be tenative looking to exit on a tight margin. Mind you if the share price drops below $0.88 I might look for an entry with a hold for the December div and try for a combo trade of div and capital gain. Nothing is easy, dyor and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (30 November 2011)

You might as well rely on reading tea leaves if you are trying to determine where cpa is going at the moment. After being pushed down in the run up to the close off for the right to participate in the off market buy back, the cpa share price soared to touch $0.97 yesterday before closing on $0.96.

This is despite all the negative news out of Europe and the likelihood of a credit squeeze between European banks and the banks funding Australian REIT's, flowing on to REIT's as higher financing costs. Go figure.

I am confident that the market would not be so pernicious as to deliberately push the price down to accumulate before the close of the "off market" buy back, then push the price up and hold it up in the period where the "market price" is calculated, to ensure the "market price" and premium are equal to or greater than $0.97. That wouldn't happen would it. It will be interesting to see what the final price is, the level of take up and whether or not there is a scale back.




In the meantime, the rises and falls provide plenty of trading opportunities for the nimble. DYOR and watch out for sharks


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## nulla nulla (7 January 2012)

Since the last post cpa has held the high ground trading above the $0.97 level and testing $1.00 on at least two occaisions interday. With only two dips below $0.95 (and one of them was so quick, if you blinked you missed it) it is hard to determine a reasonable re-entry point.




With the negativity of the euro mess still to be resolved and the recent off market buy back by cpa stirring up the share price, I am waiting for the dust to settle before I buy back in. At the current levels the gap between share price and NTA has narrowed. CPA probably has the least discount to nta of all reits at the moment (except possibly GMG, which is overpriced in my opinion).


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## nulla nulla (21 January 2012)

CPA has continued to defy gravity, until the last few days. Where $0.97 has been a resistance level for some time it will be interesting to see whether it can now be a support level being the bottom range of the upward trend since October 2011.




If not, the next support level is $0.945 and if it doesn't hold there, the long term channel bottom is arround $0.88. Watching and waiting.


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## nulla nulla (17 March 2012)

It looks like $0.955 has become a recent support level and $0.985 a level of resistance.




Getting in at $0.955 could be an option for those looking for the combo of div and capital gain on low percentages but you may have your capital tied up longer than you like waiting for any ex-div rebound. Too tight a range (with potential to retest lows on market whims) for me to trade. Better oppotunities elsewhere for now, imo, until cpa presents a better entry price. As always dyor.


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## nulla nulla (5 May 2012)

Currently I am working from the view point of "what goes up must come down". CPA trading just under the nta is very nice but from a p/e ratio perspective and a reduced yield perspective, I can't see it holding this level. 

There is a rumour that dexus is looking to take over the management of cpa from colonial but I can't see this a justification of the recent share price increase. 




Looking ahead it will be interesting to see whether CPA can turn the previous resistance level of $1.01 into a support level or whether it will drop back to the range $0.96 to $1.01?


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## nulla nulla (14 May 2012)

And now comes the acid test. Can cpa hold the previous resistance level as a support level and move back up to retest the new resistance level, then break through? Or are we doomed to see cpa retreat back to the previous trading range?




Watching and waiting. I'll buy a train ticket when i'm sure the train is heading north. Good luck


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## nulla nulla (18 May 2012)

Against all odds cpa has clung to the support at $1.00 - $1.005 for the past week while other reit's have been dragged down by the prevailing market sentiment. Unfortunately $1.02 has been pretty much a resistance level.




It is a braver man than me that would risk sufficient capital to make a profit after brokerage, trading the region $1.005 to $1.015. I can wait.


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## nulla nulla (8 June 2012)

It appears that cpa is enjoying a new "upward and sideways" channel, narrowing the gap between the share price and the rta. This is not entirely unreasonable when you consider the earnings multiple of cpa versus some of the other reit's. $0.98 is being tested atm as a support level with resistance at the $1.02 level. 




Be careful making any long term decisions, bearing in mind that cpa will announce a distribution this month (payable in August). The share price will likely drop when it goes ex-div. It could be worth a punt with entry arround the $0.99, hold for the distribution and sell down the track, on the recovery, for a capital gain as well.  . As always do your own research and no responsibility taken.


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## nulla nulla (16 June 2012)

CPA was tracking along nicely apparently moving up and down in a generally upward sideways channel closing the gap between the share price and the nta backing when it seems to have faltered and started drifting down.




For the moment cpa looks like falling into the long term sideways channel of trading between $0.96 and $1.01. Hopefully it will find more support at $0.98 and won't test the previous $0.96 support area. It is a bit surprising for it to fall so quickly in recent weeks when other stalwarts such as GPT and SGP are holding up (for this period of volatility). Like other reit's cpa is also due to announce a dividend next week and go ex-div around the 25/6/12. Not really big enough to warrant dividend stripping but usually enough to attract a little interest?


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## nulla nulla (23 June 2012)

CPA seemed range bound this week between $0.99 and $1.005 only bursting up to $1.01 before close on Friday. Even the prospect of a div couldn't lift cpa out of the doldrums and it wouldn't surprise me to see the share price test the recent lows of $0.98 and possibly the lower channel support area of $0.96 after it goes ex-div.


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## nulla nulla (30 June 2012)

CPA was rangebound last week struggling to make $1.01 before it went exdiv. On Monday it dropped to tap $0.97 after open then started a recovery that saw it climb back above the exdiv price, tapping $1.03 on Friday.




Part of the recovery is due to the (poorly timed) announcement that property revaluations meant the nta has lifted from $1.11 to $1.15 per share. Fantastic result for those that held for the dividend and capital gain. 

As always do your own research.


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## nulla nulla (14 July 2012)

The rise and rise of cpa continues as nervous investors turn to perceived secure shares like the reits paying good yields, trading at discount to nta and trading at low price earnings multiples. If you bought back in december 2010 you are riding a capital gain of almost 25% plus you have enjoyed regular annual dividends above 5% p.a. These days the borrowings ratio's are low and the dividends are paid out of earninngs. The bonus of course is the share buy back program continuing to increase the nta of the remaining shares and encourage new investors. 





If you are a short term investor, you have had to get your timing right on entries, exits and hopefully picking up a dividend or two along the way. The share price has gone up in steady increments over the past two (2) years (The chart looks like a step ladder). There is still a gap to nta. You have to decide whether price retraces are an entry opportunity or the start of a significant retrace. Lately the share price has been ticking over in the $0.98 to $1.04 range.  As always d.y.o.r and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (26 July 2012)

I have to admit that cpa was easier to trade when it ranged between $0.875 and $1.01. Recently cpa has narrowed the gap to nta and is trading in the range $0.98 to $1.06. Making hard work out of it.




Interestingly I am reminded of the start of the GFC in early 2008 when investors turned to the reit's for their high yields. Unfortunately the hedge funds knew the yields were financed by significant borrowing levels and had no hesitation in pushing the prices down forcing the reits to recapitalise and reduce borrowings as the share prices collapsed. Unfortunately so did the dividends.

Today most aussie reit's are operating with borrowing ratios to assets of 20% - 26% versus the pre GFC levels of 80% or so. Significantly most aussie reits are also now paying dividends out of earnings (arround 80%) and the yields are down to 5%-8%. However this is better than bank rates and it would seem some large funds are quietly accumulating for the income stream and pushing the price ever so slowly up, closing the gap on NTA per share.

I would be surprised to see the cpa share price go above the nta value. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another push downwards on the price by the hedge funds, on the basis that there will be an international credit squeeze making the cost of financing for aussie reits higher. Time will tell. As always d.y.o.r and good luck


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## nulla nulla (24 August 2012)

It is like trying to kill a snake. The bloody thing keeps moving agressively upward when you least expect it. Coming off a low of $1.035, cpa slithered up to a fresh high of $1.08 before dropping back to $1.055. 





All week it has met support at the $1.055 level but the interday highs are getting lower. This wouldn't be a bad time for the break-out experts to chime and with their opinions as to whether cpa can hold this point and go higher or is about to crash downwards. I have a low ball bid in the queue just in case but I'm not confident. As always do your own research and good luck .


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## nulla nulla (1 September 2012)

cpa turned south this week and the break-out went the wrong way. Seems the drive from investors seeking security from yield may have fizzled out almost as soon as it began. There is a lot of negative press at the moment in respect of Australian property price bubbles etc and the Office environment is very competetive as the market rejigs for the upcomming Barangaroo development in Sydney harbour. Some see it as an oversupply of office space, others see it as an opportunity for more businesses to relocate into the Sydney CBD from outer suburbs. Time will tell.




If cpa doesn't bounce from here, the next support level is $1.01 then $0.98(?)


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## nulla nulla (8 September 2012)

This week cpa rebounded from support at $1.03 and restested $1.06 before fading to end the week at $1.045.




The two (2) year chart shows cpa steadily climbing since December 2010. The share price tracked sideways between $0.87 and $0.96 until December 2011 when the resistance level of $0.96 appears to have become a support level. Now cpa appears to be narrowing the gap to NTA in a similar manner to most other aussie reit's.

I think it is worth noting that cpa draws income mainly from office rentals and doesn't have the exposure to retail and residential property development of some of the other major reit's. None-the-less security of good yields can only be sustained if income increases in line with the share price. It may be hard for cpa to generate increasing income while the economy is dawdling and there is a need to provide incentives to retain tennants. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (8 September 2012)

*[tr]	[td]	Share:	[/td][td]	CPA	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]		[/td][td]		[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Date:	[/td][td]	 7-09-2012	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]		[/td][td]		[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Closing Price	[/td][td]	1.045	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Issued Shares	[/td][td]	2,347,003,413	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Capital	[/td][td]	2,452,618,567	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Earnings $	[/td][td]	0.1066	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Dist $	[/td][td]	0.0609	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Yield %	[/td][td]	5.83%	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	P/E	[/td][td]	9.80	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	NTA $	[/td][td]	1.16	[/td][/tr]
[tr]	[td]	Discount to NTA	[/td][td]	9.91%	[/td][/tr]

	[td]
[/tr]*
Disclaimer: The above figures may have errors and should not be relied upon for the making of investments decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (20 September 2012)

Hopefully $1.02 will be a support level. This hasn't been a good week, so far, for cpa. It looked like there would be a recovery to the $1.045 - $1.05 area today but the sellers into the auction had other ideas.




Larger volumes too but probably inflated by the options settlements today.


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## nulla nulla (28 September 2012)

Well $1.02 - $1.025 has proven to be a support level this week but $1.055 is also proving to be a resistance level. The spread today was totally unexpected. Opening strongly (for the week) at $1.05, touching $1.055 then crashng down through to $1.025, then rebounding to $1.05 before collapsing in the close to $1.035




A little disapointing, unless you were buying in the $1.025 - $1.03 range and bailing in the $1.045 - $1.05 range. Unfortunately, for me, my order at $1.025 did not get filled. Maybe next week?


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## skc (28 September 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Well $1.02 - $1.025 has proven to be a support level this week but $1.055 is also proving to be a resistance level. The spread today was totally unexpected. Opening strongly (for the week) at $1.05, touching $1.055 then crashng down through to $1.025, then rebounding to $1.05 before collapsing in the close to $1.035




Not sure why but quite a few REITs closed at daily lows... CFX, GPT, CPA and MGR. I think there was a bit of quarter end events going on (sector rotation or may be related to option expiry).

Managed to make a good trade on long CPA short CFX, but my long GPT short ALZ is treading water.


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## nulla nulla (29 September 2012)

skc said:


> Not sure why but quite a few REITs closed at daily lows... CFX, GPT, CPA and MGR. I think there was a bit of quarter end events going on (sector rotation or may be related to option expiry).
> 
> Managed to make a good trade on long CPA short CFX, but my long GPT short ALZ is treading water.




Most of them appear to be in a consolidation phase after the recent surge. Not quite retreating to previous ranges but looking to establish newer support levels.


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## nulla nulla (6 October 2012)

A good week for CPA. The lows are getting lower and the highs are getting higher. The RBA interest rate cut on tuesday certainly helped the Australian REIT sector and CPA was swept up in the euphoria. Volumes were good and there is a suggestion that overseas investors are taking more interest in our reit's, particularly when the aud$ dips against the US$.

Six Month Chart



Three year chart




The yield rate is still good (probably better now that the banks will likely trim interest rates on deposits) and the Price/Earnings ratio is one of the lowest of the reit's.


	Share:		CPA	  	Date:		Closing 5-10-12	  	Closing Price		1.06		Issued Shares		2,347,003,413		Capital		2,487,823,618		Earnings $		0.1066		Dist $		0.0609		Yield %		5.75%		P/E		9.94		NTA $		1.16		Discount to NTA		8.62%	

[/tr]


As always D.Y.O.R and good luck


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## nulla nulla (6 October 2012)

Opps...I was in a hurry and I did a Hilary Clinton, I miss spoke.  I posted "The lows are getting lower and the highs are getting higher". I should have said "The lows are getting *higher* and the highs are getting higher. Humble apologies .


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## nulla nulla (16 October 2012)

Naturally my sit in the queue at $1.03 has proven to be extremely optimistic and the low aud$ has encouraged overseas investors to jump on board helping the local investors seeking security in yield push the price up to todays close of $1.095 (same as yesterday). Looks like I well and truly missed this opportunity.




The interesting part of todays trading, on reasonable volumes, was the push of cpa to $1.12 early in the days trading. At only $0.04c off the nta value of $1.16, even at $1.12 the tables show cpa still has potential to be a good investment on the technicals of yield, price earnings ratio and discount to nta. 


	Share:		CPA		CPA		CPA	   	Interday High		Date:		12-Oct-12		16-Oct-12		16-Oct-12	    	Closing Price $		1.08		1.095		1.12		Issued Shares		2,347,003,413		2,347,003,413		2,347,003,413		Capital $		2,534,763,686		2,569,968,737		2,628,643,823		Earnings $		0.1066		0.1066		0.1066		Dist $		0.0609		0.0609		0.0609		Yield %		5.64%		5.56%		5.44%		P/E ratio		10.13		10.27		10.51		NTA $		1.16		1.16		1.16		Discount to NTA		6.90%		5.60%		3.45%	

Then again....D.Y.O.R and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (20 October 2012)

What a week. CPA rocketed up to $1.125, kicking away from the previous level of resistance at $1.075 and lobbed within $0.035 cents of the nta of $1.16 before faltering and dropping back to finish the week at $1.085, up $0.005 on the previous week . CPA is now trading with a yield of 5.61% and a discount to nta of 6.47% but the price earnings ratio is only 10.18 which compares very favourably with other Australian REIT's that have price earnings greater than 17.




With annual earnings above 10c per share and a distribution of just over 6c per share, cpa has room to increase the disribution amount per share improving the yield rate which, in my opinion, would encourage more investors and probably push the share price higher into the price earnings range of 15+ . Then again what would I know. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (26 October 2012)

It has been an interesting week in the reit arena. A flurry of support followed by a flurry of sell off's. Naturally cpa went along for the ride. Once again rallying away from the $1.08 area to retest the $1.115 upper ranges then fading on Friday to close out the week at $1.08.




While cpa finished off the week better than it has in the past two weeks, it remains to be seen whether the $1.075 - $1.085 can become a support level and move higher or whether this is pre-election euphoria and things are about to crash back to reality in November, post election. As always D.Y.O.R and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (3 November 2012)

An interesting week for CPA. Closed on $1.035 (after touching $1.03) approximately 6.7% down from the recent high closing price of $1.11. The drop seems to be the impact of the property devaluationof 10 Shelly St Sydney which was revalued downwards because KPMG is moving out in January 2016 (3 years from now). This has caused the nta for cpa to be reduced from $1.16 per share to $1.15 per share.

No doubt other factors impacted on the share price. It is likely that the hurricane in the U.S will cause the withdrawal of funds back to the U.S from the Australian market. However in my opinion the price slump is excessive when compared with the rest of the market.




The next support levels, if it doesn't rebound from here, appear to be the $1.03 - $1.02 levels. If the share price doesn't hold there the slippery dip could continue to $1.00 or even $0.98?

With the distribution being maintained at $0.064 per annum (a dividend of approximately $0.032 can be expected in December 2012) this equates to an annual yield of 6.18% at the closing price of $1.035. As always d.y.o.r and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (9 November 2012)

Bounced off $1.025 with strong support at $1.03 to rally and close on $1.045 for the last three (3) days running. Touched $1.05 today with good demand/volume before fading into the auction to close out the week at $1.045.

At appears that when there is uncertainty (Europe, U.S.A, slowing China?) there is a transition to sound stocks with good yields. CPA with a yield at 5.83%, a discount to NTA of 9.13% and trading at a price earnings ratio of only 9.8 seems to tick a few of the right boxes garnering good support in the mid to later part of the week, compared to some of the other reits trading at higher price earnings ratios. 




It will be interesting to see if cpa can retest the recent resistance/support level of $1.075 in the near future. I expect it will be bolster support with the forthcoming dividend unless of course the fear factor goes nuclear.  As always do your own research and good luck.


	Share:		CPA	  	Date:		Closing 9-11-12	  	Closing Price	 *$1.045* 	Issued Shares		2,347,003,413		Capital		2,452,618,567		Earnings $		0.1066		Dist $		0.0609		Yield %	 *5.83%* 	P/E	 *9.80* 	NTA $		1.15		Discount to NTA	*	9.13%	*

Disclaimer: No guarantees given that the above figures are accurate. Additionaly they should not be relied upon for making financial decisions. D.Y.O.R.


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## nulla nulla (19 November 2012)

After holding up all of last week arround the $1.035 - $1.04, cpa collapsed in the close of Friday 16/11/12 to a new recent low of $1.015. Watching the days action, the sell down in the auction appeared a little brutal. Up until 4:00pm, cpa had turned over approximately 2.1 million shares with the price dipping from $1.035 to $1.02 in the dying stages of the days trade. The auction saw a further 2.6 million shares trade with the price pushed down to the days low of $1.015.




Todays rebound to $1.03 on good volume was very welcome (I hold). Now all cpa needs to do is go back above $1.08. As always d.y.o.r. and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (27 November 2012)

In a week  where the Greek bailout struggled to get across the line, American's took time out to celibrate Thanksgiving, China elected a new leader and the U.S debt ceiling came to prominence post election, cpa basically went nowhere. 




Except that as the AUD$ rallied, where a lot of other A-REIT's were being sold down, cpa continued to find support at the $1.02 - $1.03 area. Unfortunately resistance was encountered at the $1.045 - $1.05 area making it a very tight trade for those brave enough to venture in. I'm in but will hold for a combo trade and div if cpa can't rally past the $1.08 level prior to going ex-div in December.  As always Do Your Own Research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (30 November 2012)

I find it a little odd that the rest of the xao is rallying but reit's are being sold off, going against the overall trend. A few weeks back reit's were the "fall back" darling as shareholders sought out the security of yield and long term prospects. In my humble opinion it is highly unlikely that investors have suddenly developed an appetite for risk and are venturing back to "growth" shares versus holding onto yield shares. If any thing the trend is still toward "yield" shares like banks, telstra and a few others although daily volumes are well down. 




CPA seems to be swinging between $1.02 and $1.045, finding moderate volumes and support at $1.02 - $1.03 but encountering resistance at $1.04 - $1.045. Almost as if it is being contained here while someone accumulates? The yield at this price is better than bank rates and the assets are good. Further, their long term funding costs are low and their gearing is low also. Sometime the market loves you and other times it give you the cold shoulder. Good luck and d.y.o.r.


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## nulla nulla (8 December 2012)

It appears that the market has moved beyond giving CPA the cold shoulder to applying an artic freeze to the family jewels. In recent weeks the CPA share price has tumbled from newish highs of $1.12 to test the lows of $1.015 - $1.02 then struggling to rally to resistance at $1.045 - $1.05. On thursday the A-REIT sector turned feral sending CPA down to test $0.9925. The volumes came in before close lifting the price back up to $1.005 and CPA was dragged up a further $0.03 on friday as the rest of the REIT sector took part in the ASX rally.

The recent picture for CPA is not pretty.  In fact the highs have been getting lower and the lows are also getting lower.





While it looks like CPA is finding support at these levels, the volumes are good, the RSI chart tells a different story. The moving average has been dragged down so much that it shows CPA is not oversold at these levels and would move into the overbought levels if it were to improve above $1.035.




However, in my opinion the fundamentals for CPA are better than many of the other A-REITs'. A Return on Equity of 10%, a yield of 5.88%, a low price/earnings ratio of 9.71 and trading at a discount to NTA of 10%. Better returns than bank interest rates for your millions and almost as secure. CPA has a good porfolio of properties, good occupancy levels, is relatively cashed up from last years divestments that were not fully expended in the off-market and on-market share buy backs and is due to announce a distribution on/or about 21 December 2012 which should be approximately $0.032c per unit.



 *Share:* *	CPA*    *Date:* 	Closing 07-12-12	   *Closing Price* 	1.035	 *Issued Shares* 	2,347,003,413	 *Capital* 	2,429,148,532	 *Earnings $* 	0.1066	 *ROE*  *10.30%*  *Dist $* 	0.0609	 *Yield %* *	5.88%* *	P/E* *	9.71*  *NTA $* 	1.15	 *Discount to NTA* *	10.00%* 


So why has the market seemingly turned CPA out into the cold? I hold CPA, bought and held when it dropped to $1.03 and didn't have any more funds to top up when it dropped to $0.995. As I've said before, the market is a fickle lover. However trading rule number one (1) is: The market is never wrong; and trading rule number two (2) is: When the market is wrong, refer to rule number one (1).

Personally I think the market has got it wrong atm and I'm going to hang in there, at least until it gets it right again or I decide to admit I am wrong and take steps to stop being wrong. As always do your own research and good luck  .


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## nulla nulla (14 December 2012)

On the good side of things the highs have gotten higher and the lows are also getting higher. On the downside the share price seems to have run into resistance at $1.06. Also there seems to be a relationship between the Australian $ and the reit sectors. I have noticed recently that when the aud$ goes up, there is a corresponding sell down of A-REIT's. Recently the aud$ has been going up against the us$.




CPA seems to have lost its' gloss in recent weeks and has struggled to recover when compared with the likes of dxs, gpt, iof and a few others. We will have to wait and see what happens in the next week when it goes exdiv and then whether or not there is a christmas rally. Good luck and as always, do your own research.


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## nulla nulla (23 December 2012)

Rangebound for the week between $1.05 and $1.06, CPA managed to spike up to $1.07 in the close on Thursday. Hard to work out a true position for cpa in the lead up to xmas, the settling of options contracts on Thursday and Dividend strippers jumping in late did't help either.. 





The dive to $1.02 in the closing auction on Friday was an entry point for me, however it may go lower before it rebounds. There is nothing certain in the market and the present environment is even more unpredictable. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 December 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Rangebound for the week between $1.05 and $1.06, CPA managed to spike up to $1.07 in the close on Thursday. Hard to work out a true position for cpa in the lead up to xmas, the settling of options contracts on Thursday and Dividend strippers jumping in late did't help either..
> 
> View attachment 50101
> 
> ...




Thanks nulla,

A good buy. $1.00 is good support level for CPA which I hold. A good stock.

It has been resistance and support over the last 12mo.






gg


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## UMike (4 January 2013)

I am looking at jumping back in. $1.01 is my bid price.

Lets see what lead we get from the states this week end.


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## nulla nulla (4 January 2013)

Since going Ex-civ cpa has been in a tight trading range between $1.02 and $1.05. Todays sell down broke through the recent support level of $1.02 closing on $1.015. The three year chart shows that this is close to the previous long range resistance level of $1.01 which had become a support level in the last 7 - 8 months. The closing price is also close to breaching the lower channel bar of the upward/sideways trading trend since December 2010. 




Personaly I would be surprised to see a significant downturn in the cpa share price below this level. The ongoing fundamentals of Earnings, ROE, Distribution, Yield, discount to NTA and their low debt ratio wouldn't justify a massive sell down. In my humble opinion the present sell down is more likely to be someone taking advantage of most of the brokers being on annual leave, pushing the price down so they can accumulate. But then again what would I know. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## UMike (11 January 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Since going Ex-civ cpa has been in a tight trading range between $1.02 and $1.05. ......



Well After closing above this tight trading range hopefully it can continue trading along the channel.


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## nulla nulla (12 January 2013)

CPA continued to track sideways this week with entry opportunities for the quick or those already in the queue at $1.01. Exits anywhere between $1.035 and $1.055 for those looking for a quick return. Prospects for a further run up next week for those with appetite for risk and a willingness to let their profits run (with a tight trailing stop loss no doubt).




As always do your own research and good luck.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Since going Ex-civ cpa has been in a tight trading range between $1.02 and $1.05. Todays sell down broke through the recent support level of $1.02 closing on $1.015. The three year chart shows that this is close to the previous long range resistance level of $1.01 which had become a support level in the last 7 - 8 months. The closing price is also close to breaching the lower channel bar of the upward/sideways trading trend since December 2010.
> 
> View attachment 50250
> 
> ...





I'd agree with your assessment.

CPA has been good to me since the GFC.

I would only sell if it dropped to below 90c., which is significant support now.

Otherwise I'll hold for the reasons above.

A 5 year monthly chart






gg


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## Hughesy (30 January 2013)

HI

Sorry if i am asking this question in the wrong section. (newbie)

Is anybody aware of the original price that the Commonwealth Property office fund floated at.

Thanks


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## skc (30 January 2013)

Hughesy said:


> HI
> 
> Sorry if i am asking this question in the wrong section. (newbie)
> 
> ...




Looks like it floated in 1999 at $1.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...play=text&issuerId=4006&announcementId=273884


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## coolcup (6 February 2013)

The key game changer for CPA is potential M&A. As one of the few externally managed pure play A-REITs left in the sector it is vulnerable to a takeover if CBA ever want to sell or liquidate their management rights. With strong demand from offshore pension funds for Australian income producing rental assets (like CPA's office buildings) this will be of major interest for players such as Dexus or Charter Hall, backed by sovereign wealth funds. At it's size as well, it is relatively bite size. Otherwise it is really a hold for a not so great yield.


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## nulla nulla (7 February 2013)

coolcup said:


> The key game changer for CPA is potential M&A. As one of the few externally managed pure play A-REITs left in the sector it is vulnerable to a takeover if CBA ever want to sell or liquidate their management rights. With strong demand from offshore pension funds for Australian income producing rental assets (like CPA's office buildings) this will be of major interest for players such as Dexus or Charter Hall, backed by sovereign wealth funds. At it's size as well, it is relatively bite size. Otherwise it is really a hold for a not so great yield.




I find it hard to second guess a merger or acquisition where CPA is the target. CPA has quality assets in Sydney & Melbourne with good assets elsewhere as well, CPA has entered into an arrangement with Grollo for future developments and possible acquisitions in Melbourne, CPA is not paying out all of their earnings holding some back. CPA was running a share buy back (probably using up some of the income held back) but hasn't been participating in the buy back lately. Seems CPA is happy to buy when the price is low and content to sit out the buy back when the price is high. I'm fairly confident that they have not exhausted the funds availabel from retained earnings and sale of non core assets.

It would not surprise me if someone was to launch an opportunistic take over offer for CPA, but they would have to pay a premium over the current price. I wouldn't be surprised to see CPA size up one of the smaller REIT's for a takeover themselves. Cheap money arround and a further capital raising from sophisticated and retail investors would probably give CPA a war chest big enough to swallow a couple of the smaller ones.

I wouldn't know, I'm often wrong. Just my two (2) cents worth. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## coolcup (7 February 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> I find it hard to second guess a merger or acquisition where CPA is the target. CPA has quality assets in Sydney & Melbourne with good assets elsewhere as well, CPA has entered into an arrangement with Grollo for future developments and possible acquisitions in Melbourne, CPA is not paying out all of their earnings holding some back. CPA was running a share buy back (probably using up some of the income held back) but hasn't been participating in the buy back lately. Seems CPA is happy to buy when the price is low and content to sit out the buy back when the price is high. I'm fairly confident that they have not exhausted the funds availabel from retained earnings and sale of non core assets.
> 
> It would not surprise me if someone was to launch an opportunistic take over offer for CPA, but they would have to pay a premium over the current price. I wouldn't be surprised to see CPA size up one of the smaller REIT's for a takeover themselves. Cheap money arround and a further capital raising from sophisticated and retail investors would probably give CPA a war chest big enough to swallow a couple of the smaller ones.
> 
> I wouldn't know, I'm often wrong. Just my two (2) cents worth. As always do your own research and good luck.




CPA's deal with Grollo was very poorly received by the market. They bought assets at valuation by issuing scrip at a discount to NTA, part of which was issued to Grollo - not smart and poorly receive. Credibility somewhat restored following a long buyback which has effectively returned all the capital they raised for the Grollo deal back to investors. They don't really have the cost of capital to acquire high quality office assets accretively so are a bit of a lame duck relative to competitors such as DXS. Likelihood of investors supporting a "war chest" capital raising in the REIT sector is very very low. They would need to bring the assets to the table. They are one of the few externally managed REITs left and pay a fee to CBA for collecting rent. Will be interesting to see how things play out.


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## nulla nulla (10 February 2013)

coolcup said:


> CPA's deal with Grollo was very poorly received by the market. They bought assets at valuation by issuing scrip at a discount to NTA, part of which was issued to Grollo - not smart and poorly receive..




Actually the issue was well supported. Unfortunately issues of this nature (to fund an expansion) always go at a discount to market price and NTA as the sophisticated investors and Fund managers want a discount as incentive to stump up their capital. Also unfortunate is the actvivty of some fund managers (and sophisticated investors) in that they will sell down the shares they already hold to close to the issue price, so as to partly finance their acquisition in the capital raising and profiteer by buying more at the low price. Better long term return on their capital.



coolcup said:


> Credibility somewhat restored following a long buyback which has effectively returned all the capital they raised for the Grollo deal back to investors.




The "long" buy back is another story. CPA has not used up all the available capital in their buy back. This is easily verified by comparing the volumes they projected they "might" buy back when it was first launched against the volumes bought back and cancelled. The "long" buy back is all the more interesting as CPA stopped buying the shares when the price went above $0.98, although they still confirm that the buy back is still afoot. This is because CPA believe they can best enhance shareholder value by buying when the price is low. When the price is high they sit out of the market and put the capital to work on projects or opportunities as and when they arise.



coolcup said:


> They don't really have the cost of capital to acquire high quality office assets accretively so are a bit of a lame duck relative to competitors such as DXS. Likelihood of investors supporting a "war chest" capital raising in the REIT sector is very very low. They would need to bring the assets to the table. They are one of the few externally managed REITs left and pay a fee to CBA for collecting rent. Will be interesting to see how things play out.




CPA floated at $1.00 in 1999. The float was well supported and CBA also took a holding which I am advised they still hold at about 7% of issued capital. The float was offered to a lot of retail share holders (through comsec and others) and I suspect a lot of original investors are still there. The returns they have received over the years have fully repaid their outlay:


 *ExDate*  *PayDate*  *Amount*  *Franking %*  *Annual*    *Most Recent*  	Total		12-Aug-99		30-Aug-99		1.51		0.00%		1.51		7-Feb-00		28-Feb-00		3.81		0.00%	 	8-Aug-00		28-Aug-00		3.97		0.00%		7.78		7-Feb-01		28-Feb-01		4.05		0.00%	 	8-Aug-01		28-Aug-01		4.36		0.00%		8.41		19-Feb-02		1-Mar-02		4.41		0.00%	 	13-Aug-02		30-Aug-02		4.49		0.00%		8.90		23-Dec-02		28-Feb-03		4.62		0.00%	 	7-Apr-03		24-Apr-03		1.10		0.00%	 	24-Jun-03		29-Aug-03		4.63		0.00%		10.35		23-Dec-03		27-Feb-04		4.78		0.00%	 	24-Jun-04		27-Aug-04		4.80		0.00%		9.58		23-Dec-04		25-Feb-05		4.83		0.00%	 	24-Jun-05		26-Aug-05		4.80		0.00%		9.63		22-Dec-05		28-Feb-06		4.83		0.00%	 	26-Jun-06		25-Aug-06		4.84		0.00%		9.67		21-Dec-06		28-Feb-07		4.86		0.00%	 	21-Dec-06		28-Feb-07		0.22		0.00%	 	25-Jun-07		24-Aug-07		4.87		0.00%		9.95		21-Dec-07		27-Feb-08		4.60		0.00%	 	24-Jun-08		22-Aug-08		4.60		0.00%		9.20		23-Dec-08		27-Feb-09		4.60		2.00%	 	24-Jun-09		27-Aug-09		4.20		0.00%		8.80		23-Dec-09		25-Feb-10		2.65		0.00%	 	24-Jun-10		26-Aug-10		2.90		0.00%		5.55		23-Dec-10		24-Feb-11		2.75		0.00%	 	24-Jun-11		25-Aug-11		2.75		0.00%		5.50		22-Dec-11		28-Feb-12		2.89		0.00%	 	25-Jun-12		28-Aug-12		3.20		21.00%		6.09		21-Dec-12		28-Feb-13		3.20		0.00%		3.20	      *Total*   *114.12*   *114.12* 

The share price has dropped away from the highs pre GFC but the recent price action looks very similar to the trading in the early mid 2000's:




It is not impossible for someone to mount a take over offer for CPA, lets face it CPA is a good target: They have premium office assets in Sydney and Melbourne. All with good occupancy and high rental revenue and the debt gearing ratio of CPA is one of the lowest of all A-REIT's. Any take over offer would have to be at a big premium to get CBA and the other major shareholders over the line and I just find it highly unlikely. Just my humble opinion. I'm not in love with CPA, I just trade it when the conditions are right for me. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (25 February 2013)

Surprisingly, the yield hunters don't seem as enamoured with CPA as the are with a few of the other A-REIT's. CPA has come off its' highs and seems to be rolling sideways between $1.075 and $1.10. To tight for me and a bit odd when you consider the Earnings, ROE, Yield and discount to NTA.




The volitility continues to provide oportunity for the brave and insane. I might sit this out until the next episode of the "Fiscal Cliff" has run its' course. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (23 March 2013)

The CPA share price continues to move in a tight volitile range. However hugging these upper price levels makes it hard to jump in with any confidence.




The yield is still attractive at this level and there are plenty of buyers but I'm finding the share price spread too tight for me to risk a trade. There seems to be plenty of opportunities elsewhere atm. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## UMike (14 April 2013)

Got rid of my package Friday.....

Despite the recent acquisition being good news IMO I thought I'd cash in my gains.

Happy to buy in on some of these volitile fluctuations.


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## nulla nulla (14 April 2013)

I hope you got a good price. With the shift of investors out of gold, higher yielding stocks like A-REIt's may get pushed a little higher before yield get compressed too much and P/E ratios get too high. Then again gold could bounce and the A-REIT's retrace from Fridays peaks giving the quick another opportunity.


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## nulla nulla (4 May 2013)

This last couple of weeks CPA has continued to hold up at the new higher range.  It is hard to work out whether CPA can move up from here or will be supported at this level by foreign investors taking advantage of the yield or superfunds spreading their money arround the A-REIT portfolios.




Possibly $1.15 - $1.16 may be a new support level? As always do your own research and good luck.


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## UMike (31 May 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> I hope you got a good price. With the shift of investors out of gold, higher yielding stocks like A-REIt's may get pushed a little higher before yield get compressed too much and P/E ratios get too high. Then again gold could bounce and the A-REIT's retrace from Fridays peaks giving the quick another opportunity.




Yea I managed to buy back in half the initial investment 8c lower than the sale price and Placed an order at $1.075 today for the other half, 10c lower.

It's been almost a month since your last post do you think much has changed or has it just retraced a bit with the rest of the market????


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## nulla nulla (1 June 2013)

CPA held the support level arround $1.16 for several weeks. However a reality check to the Australian economy through the sell down of the Aud$ meant that off-shore parties buying in when the Aud$ was above US$1.00 were now experiencing a devaluation of their investment. No doubt their selling pushed through a few stop losses which in turn caused more selling, pushing through more stop losses. 




The big sellers of the dollar (Goldman Sachs probably following Soros's lead) have nominated 2014 year end expected targets and 2015 year end expected targets for the Aud$. The only problem is, that like gold, the 2014 year end targets were arrived at a bit early. No doubt if the Aud$ trends down, more off-shore investments in A-REIT's will be pulled. On the other side of the coin, as the Aud$ drops the present share price will become attractive to other off-shore investors seeking yield rates better than bond rates etc and the buyers should match the sellers or possibly push the prices back up...maybe? I'm hoping CPA can hold $1.10 as a support level. The yield coming up late this month should help. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## UMike (3 June 2013)

Ahhh well I got it.....

A bit before I thought I would and it closed a cent higher also.....

Lets hope it all picks up from now. (with a divi).


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## nulla nulla (3 June 2013)

UMike said:


> Ahhh well I got it.....
> 
> A bit before I thought I would and it closed a cent higher also.....
> 
> Lets hope it all picks up from now. (with a divi).




CPA tested the support level of $1.075 today before clawing its' way back to $1.085. I hope it isn't going to test the lower support levels arround $1.02.


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## nulla nulla (16 June 2013)

CPA not only tested the support level of $1.02 but dipped further to $1.005. The rally to close on Friday at an interday high of $1.05 was encouraging but the prospect of this simply being a "dead cat" bounce (possibly supported by the prospects of a forthcoming dividend of $0.03) shouldn't be overlooked.





Like a lot of A-REIT's, CPA has dropped by more than 10% over the past four weeks with the exodus of foreign investment funds. At some point the intrinsic value of CPA has to underpin the share price. The yield for long term punters must be getting attractive again as the share price retreats to December 2012 levels.

As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (29 July 2013)

After buying into CPA at $1.14 in late May 2014 for what I thought would be a quick trade on the rebound leading up to the Ex-div date, I had the setback of a white knuckle ride down to $1.005 before the CPA share price found support arround the $1.08 - $1.12 range after going ex-div. Things weren't looking good and after six weeks I was looking to exit arround $1.145 (or $1.13 if it didn't look like making the $1.145) figuring that I would use the dividend of $0.032 per share that we will receive in August to cover any trading losses and/or brokerage costs.




I would like to thank CBA for suggesting that CFX and CPA internalise their management,. Also I would like to thank Dexus for snapping up enough shares to lift their stake in CPA to 14.9% prompting take-over speculation. In the opening surge of trading on Thursday I happily sold my parcel for a capital gain $0.03 per share taking the combined profit of div and capital gain to $0.062 per share or just under 6% for a seven or eight week hold.

There was a good article in the Financial Revue on friday:


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226685258206


There is another article in todays Sydney Morning Herald BusinessDay section by Carolyn Cummins:

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/dexus-likely-to-offer-3b-for-fund-20130728-2qsne.html

$1.20 per share is being mooted as a realistic acquisition price. Dexus is infront whether they win or lose.


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## rbgmauq (29 July 2013)

CPA is facing the resistance of 1.200. The technical indicator at au.stoxline website shows a buy with the 1.402 target price in six months.


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## nulla nulla (29 July 2013)

rbgmauq said:


> CPA is facing the resistance of 1.200. The technical indicator at au.stoxline website shows a buy with the 1.402 target price in six months.




The share price spike in April-May this year appears to have been driven by the influx of off-shore funds chasing yield. The apparent relative strength of the Australian Economy and the elevation of the Aud$ to the status of a "hold" currency must have given the foreign investors some confidence/comfort to jump on board the likes of CPA and other A-REIT's. 

This confidence evaporated quickly when the likes of Soris and Goldman Sachs started selling down gold and the Aud$. The dollar dropped almost 15% and the share price fell around another 10%. The irony is that now the Aud$ has dropped and the share price has dropped, the yield is even more attractive to off-shore investors. 

However with the economy and the market in a constant state of volatility, dependant on China's growth rate and the US "Quantative Easing" program I find it hard to see CPA reaching $1.402 in the next six months. I can't see it developing the growth, returns, distribution and yield rates to sustain that sort of price level.


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## nulla nulla (28 September 2013)

Well that killed that. Dexus threw it's hat in the ring. CBA and Dexus had an Argy/Bargy episode as to who did what in the proper manner or otherwise. Dexus revealed that it was using Deutsche Bank to accumulate 14.9% of CPA shares between $1.13 and $1.20 with an expected average of approx $1.135 and every one is happy with CPA trading in a really tight range between $1.14 and $1.18 (mostly) as Deutsche Bank buy and sell shares to accumulate the necessary number of shares at the agreed price. If that isn't market manipulation then what is?




What a joke. If I had the extra capital, I would buy CPA every time it hit $1.14 - $1.145 and sell when it hit $1.15 - $1.155. The oportunities to make a quick $0.01 - $0.015 must be screaming out to all those market movers and shakers with robot traders and millions of $ to punt with.


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## nulla nulla (12 October 2013)

How quickly things change. The share price which had been heading south along with most other A-REITs, in late May early June, suddenly jumped into the $1.14 -$1.20 range as Dexus (with the help of Deutsche Bank) announced that they were acquiring a stake in CPA of 14.9% of the shares on issue. After the initial market reaction pushing the price above $1.17 the market settled down into a tight range between $1.14 and $1.16. It was almost tradeable on reasonable volumes. 

However to me the risk to trading seemed to be how/whether Deutcshe Bank would be pushing the share price arround with their accumulation strategy, buying and selling trying to keep their average price in the lower end of the $1.135 to $1.20 range.

Now Dexus have made a non binding offer,  in partnership with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), to pay out CBA for the management rights and to buy all the shares in CPA they don't already own (having now acquired control of 14.9% of the shares on issue).




The market immediately pushed the CPA share price above the offer value (cash and scrip in Dexus) of $1.15 closing out on Friday at $1.19. CPA has issued a "do nothing for now" recommendation to share holders as the offer is presently non binding etc. It would seem that the market considers that CPA is worth more and that there may be another bidder yet to be flushed out.

As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (15 October 2013)

CPA is reported as having rejected the Dexus offer as not having sufficient value and will not be allowing Dexus access to their records to conduct due dilligence. It would seem that if Dexus wants to peek under CPA's skirts they will have to sweeten the offer and commit to it rather than run with this "non binding conditional" bid.

Interestingly, the turnover of shares in both companies yesterday was higher than usual and disproportionately higher than the turnover in the rest of the A-REIT sector. Also interesting is that there has been no mention of how the relationship between CPA and Grollo would be effected if the take over bid was to occur. From memory I beleive that Grollo has first right of refusal over some of CPA's Melbourne assets as well as some equity in CPA (?)  

Also it seems odd that the Dexus approach is so close to the NTA of CPA. To go to the effort of organising capital backing for the buyout you'd think they would have jumped in with a "premium" bid to knock out any other potential buyers. More to come yet, I think.


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## nulla nulla (15 October 2013)

The reference above in respect of "the relationship with Grollo" should be a relationship with "Grocon". My apologies.


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## coolcup (15 October 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Also it seems odd that the Dexus approach is so close to the NTA of CPA. To go to the effort of organising capital backing for the buyout you'd think they would have jumped in with a "premium" bid to knock out any other potential buyers. More to come yet, I think.




Why would they go in with a premium? They already own a blocking stake so no other buyer is going to trump them unless it is at such a high level that DXS is happy to sell into the other buyer's bid. By bidding at NTA they are forcing any other dark horses out there to make a play at above valuation.

Don't forget that the DXS CEO Darren Steinberg was at CPA when he made the much maligned acquisition of the Grocon assets, issuing capital below NTA to buy office buildings at valuation. The market slaughtered him for that deal and he has gone to great lengths to show that he is not paying above the odds this time (note the detailed financial assumptions disclosure at the back of the ASX presentation which is not typical of a deal like this in the sector).

My view is that this will play out as all M&A for passive REITs in the sector does these days. First a bid at NTA, the CPA board reject it. Then a period of discussion where DXS then come out with a new offer a few cents above their original proposal. CPA board accept and look good for forcing the price higher, even though it is at a level which DXS was willing to pay in the first place. CPA has limited options here, they are too small to internalise and rival bidders have been scared away by DXS blocking stake.


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## nulla nulla (16 October 2013)

coolcup said:


> Why would they go in with a premium?.



 Generally a serious takeover offer is at a premium to NTA of a few % to swing the deal. To me Dexus don't appear to be fully commited to their offer unless as you point out it is merely the first stage to be upped after rejection.



coolcup said:


> They already own a blocking stake so no other buyer is going to trump them unless it is at such a high level that DXS is happy to sell into the other buyer's bid. By bidding at NTA they are forcing any other dark horses out there to make a play at above valuation.




Unless of course someone else, already lurking in the register quietly acquires more to effectively block Dexus? (I think we have previously discussed the possibility of someone like GPT doing this). Turnover for CPA has been fairly high the last few weeks and it is unclear whether the 14.9% block of shares Dexus has a "right" to acquire from Deutsche Bank, has in fact been completely acquired yet. 



coolcup said:


> Don't forget that the DXS CEO Darren Steinberg was at CPA when he made the much maligned acquisition of the Grocon assets, issuing capital below NTA to buy office buildings at valuation. The market slaughtered him for that deal and he has gone to great lengths to show that he is not paying above the odds this time (note the detailed financial assumptions disclosure at the back of the ASX presentation which is not typical of a deal like this in the sector).




Funny that the market movers pushed CPA down to the Grocon price, then bought it back up to NTA, then the yield chasers pushed it up higher, then the off shore investors sold it down again with the Aud$ and then a sniff of a takeover pushes it back up to NTA+.

Carolyn Cummins has an interesting article in todays Sydney Morning Herald BusinessDay. The fee exposure of CPA to buying out the management rights from CBA reduces the NTA from $1.15 to $1.10 but the avoidance of stamp duty on the transfer of the assets through a takeover increases the NTA to $1.18. Seems the current price reflects the markets expectation of a deal being done around this level.



coolcup said:


> My view is that this will play out as all M&A for passive REITs in the sector does these days. First a bid at NTA, the CPA board reject it. Then a period of discussion where DXS then come out with a new offer a few cents above their original proposal. CPA board accept and look good for forcing the price higher, even though it is at a level which DXS was willing to pay in the first place. CPA has limited options here, they are too small to internalise and rival bidders have been scared away by DXS blocking stake.




Your assessment is probably on the money. The directors will probably get a fee payout as well.


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## nulla nulla (16 October 2013)

This mornings notices on the ASX indicate that Dexus/Deutsche Bank/CPPIF have reduced their CPA holding from 14.64% to 13.55%, however National Australia Bank has weighed-in filing a "Initial Substantial Holder" notice advising that they have accumulated 5.553% of CPA shares. No indication that NAB is acting with the Dexus team. This represents a combined 19.103%, getting interesting.


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## nulla nulla (16 November 2013)

*Vale CPA*



coolcup said:


> Why would they go in with a premium? .......My view is that this will play out as all M&A for passive REITs in the sector does these days. First a bid at NTA, the CPA board reject it. Then a period of discussion where DXS then come out with a new offer a few cents above their original proposal. CPA board accept and look good for forcing the price higher, even though it is at a level which DXS was willing to pay in the first place. CPA has limited options here, they are too small to internalise and rival bidders have been scared away by DXS blocking stake.




Good call coolcup. Along comes the revised bid from Dexus for CPA at a slightly higher cash/scrip bid of $1.205, followed almost immediately by the CPA independant directors acceptance along with confimation of agreement from CBA to off load the management rights to Dexus. Hugs and kisses all round, some due dilligence to confirm all is in order and then put the deal to bed. 




CPA has provided a fantastic return over the past four and a half years as the CPA share price recovered from the GFC lows, from buying on the lows and selling on the highs as well as picking up several distributions along the way. However it has been too tight for me to trade since the takeover bid was announced. Large scale traders no doubt would have jumped in arround the $1.185 to $1.19 with exits arround the $1.20 to $1.205 levels, being happy to pick up profits of $0.005 to $0.015 but this was too tight for me and I felt that there were better trade opportunities elsewhere.

I will miss you CPA


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## coolcup (16 November 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Good call coolcup.




Thanks Nulla Nulla. What do you think of IOF? Do you think it could be the next target? They have recently sold their DOF investment which was the poison pill in the structure. I wonder if GPT may be interested given they were beaten to the punch by DXS on CPA??


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## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2013)

When bid for takeover, do the REITs often not get offered much of a premium to the current SP?  If someone could explain the fundamentals pls that would be good.


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## nulla nulla (16 November 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> When bid for takeover, do the REITs often not get offered much of a premium to the current SP?  If someone could explain the fundamentals pls that would be good.




I suspect it would depend on how close the targets' share price is to the nta of their assets. If the target reit is already trading at a premium to nta, then there is little room to move for the company launching the take-over to get a bargain. If the targets' share price is trading at a discount to nta then the take over company can offer a premium to the share price but still be less than the nta.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> I suspect it would depend on how close the targets' share price is to the nta of their assets. If the target reit is already trading at a premium to nta, then there is little room to move for the company launching the take-over to get a bargain. If the targets' share price is trading at a discount to nta then the take over company can offer a premium to the share price but still be less than the nta.




Thanks.  Do REITs normally trade at a SP close to nta?


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## nulla nulla (16 November 2013)

coolcup said:


> Thanks Nulla Nulla. What do you think of IOF? Do you think it could be the next target? They have recently sold their DOF investment which was the poison pill in the structure. I wonder if GPT may be interested given they were beaten to the punch by DXS on CPA??




I hope not. I trade the price swings in IOF as well and would miss the trade opportunities if it was swallowed by someone like gpt. I suspect that iof has a fair few shares under a tight grip by the major share holders and any propective suitor would have to win them over first. 

I don't think gpt wants to a pure office portfolio or for their reit portfolio to be disproportionately weighted to office. I understand that gpt wants to maintain a diverse mix of office, retail, etc so when one sector is down the others are more likely to be able to carry them through any sector slumps. You never know.


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## nulla nulla (16 November 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks.  Do REITs normally trade at a SP close to nta?




Most of them seem to be these days. Some up some down, but not too far off.


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## piggybank (20 November 2013)




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## nulla nulla (21 November 2013)

Interesting article in todays Sydney Morning Herald BusinessDay by Carolyn Cummins in regard the takeover offers from Dexus and GPT. Worth a read in my opinion.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/dexus-set-to-up-the-ante-in-cpa-battle-20131120-2xvs0.html

Seems fairly balanced.


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## nulla nulla (21 November 2013)

And the Chess battle continues. Dexus to play it's 14.9% holding as a blocking stake to any GPT acquisition and divestment of assets to GWOF. Dexus opened at $1.065. GPT opened at $3.52 (down $0.04 on yesterdays close, however volumes are not very high). Interestingly DXS did not try to match the GPT bid in their release.


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## nulla nulla (25 November 2013)

Probably stating the obvious to any one following the CPA takeover battle. 

1. CBA have terminated the exclusive deal with Dexus for due dilligence on the basis that Dexus did not match the offer of GPT or up the anti in the bid for CPA;
2. Notwithstanding 1 above, CBA have invited Dexus to continue with due dilligence within the same time frame as previously agreed;
3. Dexus is continuing with due dilligence advising the market that it is too early to determine the merits of their offer versus GPT's, considering both are on the basis of scrip and cash;
4. GPT contends that their offer is in the best interests of CPA share holders; and
5. Both Dexus and GPT increased in price today on fairly modest turnover.

It seems it is still too early to determine which offer the market favours. All the parties seem to be being very careful to appraise the market as to what is happening. CBA appears to be seen to be trying to act in the best interest of the CPA unit holders. It is almost as if the major players are wary of the potential for class action if their actions can be perceived as "self interest" rather than CPA unit holder interest. Interestingly the market for CPA today was still within the realms of GPT's offer, as if the market is not expecting a higher bid?


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## UMike (26 November 2013)

I'm first in line at $1.275


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## nulla nulla (26 November 2013)

UMike said:


> I'm first in line at $1.275




You must have read the article in todays BusinesDay about the possibility of a foreign third party lobbing an increased bid for CPA. Given that most of the accumulation works on achieving an averaged price, you have every chance of getting your sell away. Then again if the third bidder doesn't lob and Dexus elects not to top the GPT offer you might be hanging out for a while.  Good luck.


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## nulla nulla (1 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> You must have read the article in todays BusinesDay about the possibility of a foreign third party lobbing an increased bid for CPA. Given that most of the accumulation works on achieving an averaged price, you have every chance of getting your sell away. Then again if the third bidder doesn't lob and Dexus elects not to top the GPT offer you might be hanging out for a while.  Good luck.




That foreign bidder hasn't eventuated and the share price movement has been very static. It would appear that the market is not expecting a higher bid. More likely perhaps a rejig by Dexus with an argument that their bid is better than GPT's. GPT should be lodging their formal bidder statement this week, so we should see a few more specifics then be able to guage market reaction.




Not much point in commenting on trading this share now. It is sitting in a range mostly between $1.26 and $1.265 with minor deviations to $1.2575 and $1.27.


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## nulla nulla (16 December 2013)

The sell down in the Aud$ dragged down both Dexus and GPT as foreign investors headed for the door with their funds. Dexus did a quick calculation as to how their bid and GPT's bid stacked up on the resultant drop in share prices and lobbed a revised bid for CPA of $1.27 based on scrip and cash, with a covering note as to why their bid was better than GPT's. 




On Thursday/Friday of last week CPA started trading in the $1.28-$1.285 range as the market factored in an expectation of GPT coming back with a sweetened bid in the realms of $1.30. Then on Friday night, after close of business Dexus, announced that they have locked in a deal with the CBA for management rights of CPA at $41million subject to 50.1% acceptances of their revised offer. Surprisingly, today CPA seemed to peak at $1.28. No response, before market close anyway, from GPT and the market doesn't appear to be as sure of another bid? Then again the Aud$ dropped further today and this could also have impacted on CPA.

At this point I suspect that the only way GPT could win the battle for CPA is to make a cash offer of $1.27+ (no scrip). Even then they would have to deal with the 15% holding of Dexus and the CBA holding of roughly 10%. So far it seems that CBA is favouring the Dexus bid, after all they get $41 millon for the management rights from Dexus.


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## nulla nulla (6 April 2014)

Done and dusted. VALE CPA. 

Dexus won the bidding war when GPT didn't come out of their corner with a higher bid or a cash bid in the third round. Then Dexus did a sweat heart deal to onsell $2.2 million of the CPA assets to GPT if Dexus gets 100% of the CPA shares. GPT threw in the towel and in the absence of a better offer, the CPA directors recommended that CPA shareholders accept the Dexus offer.

Dexus is now mopping up the remaining CPA shares and GPT has a put and call option over various assets within a tight time frame of Dexus finalizing the CPA mop up.

CPA was very good to us over the last four and a half years. 




P.S. Some times I wonder if GPT was serious about a full take-over of CPA. The possibility that they only took a blocking stake to get Dexus to the negotiating table in regard the CPA assets that GPT wanted, niggles at the back of my mind. They wouldn't do that....would they?


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## coolcup (6 April 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> P.S. Some times I wonder if GPT was serious about a full take-over of CPA. The possibility that they only took a blocking stake to get Dexus to the negotiating table in regard the CPA assets that GPT wanted, niggles at the back of my mind. They wouldn't do that....would they?




This is a good insight. What made it worse was that GPT never actually took a stake. All they did was sign agreements with some hedge funds that agreed to sell to GPT if GPT's bid ended up the higher value offer vs DXS. So a meaningless position really. They did well to play the game and come out with a swag of assets.


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## System (23 April 2014)

On April 22nd, 2014, Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA) was removed from the ASX's official list following compulsory acquisition by DEXUS Funds Management Limited as trustee for DEXUS Office Trust Australia.


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