# AMI - Aurelia Metals



## mrgroundwork (12 February 2008)

Surprised to find there are no threads on this stock... anyone holding or been watching?

Has obviously had a stellar performance since listing last year... it is also heavily backed by some shrewd Chinese investors that no what they are doing...

More surprisingly, all the drilling results so far have been extremely promising... unfortunately, they are not in the current flavours of the month (ie coal or iron ore) but they have got some good grades of tin and some other moire obscure metals... The market doesn't seem to have shown a huge appreciation for these results thus far, or perhaps they are just priced in...

Anyway I bought in, in the high 90's... I am pretty bullish on this one...


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## mrgroundwork (10 April 2008)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

JORC resource of roughly 22,000 tonnes of tin... at current Tin price of approx $20,000/ton that is equal to $440 million resource... 

With all the tin sitting very shallow in the ground it should be fairly easy and cost effective to pull out of the ground... and currently management look to tentatively be aiming to produce in 2010... it doesnt seem that this or the rising tin price have been priced into this stock...

anyone else following or just me? perhaps the heavy chinese involvement is scaring off investors? or the lack of liquidity due to the stock being so tightly held by management and major shareholders?


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## Golf 16 (20 June 2010)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Hey Mrgroundwork,
another lonely thread. Bit like NQM. 
Anyway, seems that YTC are making good progress on the Hera gold project. The info below is from 'the Aussie' last week. 
Couple of brokers have coverage from memory.  
_A KEY milestone has been reached by YTC Resources with the completion of its resource estimate at the Hera gold project, located 100km southeast of Cobar, NSW. Hera now as estimated 560,000oz of gold equivalent using a cut-off production cost of $125 a tonne.

The resource breakdown stands at 2.18 million tonnes at 3.7 grams/tonne gold, 18g/t silver, 2.8 per cent lead, 5 per cent zinc, 0.1 per cent copper. The resource remains open at depth, and to the north and south.

Andrew Muir whipped out a note on YTC this morning continuing a “buy” tag on the stock. It is trading today at 24.5c with Hartley putting a valuation of 57c a share. He added that there is good potential for further upgrades.

He said this resource would be used to finalise the definitive feasibility study which is due in the final quarter of 2010, with the start of decline development potentially happening shortly afterward._

I do not hold but am interested. Wonder what others think??
Cheers
Golf


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## happytown (7 October 2010)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

whilst ytc is currently concentrating on gaining mine permitting at its hera au-ag-pb-zn-cu project

its tin assets include

2 resource deposits
ongoing management fee from current tin operation
several tin projects

2 resource deposits:

Doradilla Project (NSW, earning 70%), jorc inferred resource 7.81Mt @ 0.28% Sn for 22,300t Sn, using 0.1% Sn cut-off - YTC hole outside resource area intersected 38.1m @ 0.53% Sn from surface, with at least another 5km skarn untested
Pound Flat Project (NSW, 100%), 1982 non-jorc resource estimate 642,180m3 @ 1.38kg SnO2/m3 for 8,860t SnO2 - historical drill results incl 98.5m @ 0.13% Sn from 13.5m, 49m @ 0.18% Sn from 1m to eoh, 49m @ 0.13% Sn from 1m to eoh

ongoing management fee

ongoing management fee (equal to 5% of Yunnan Tin Group Partners after-tax net profit) courtesy of YTC's involvement in the MLX/YTGP 50/50 jv in respect of MLX's Tas tin operations, incl Renison mine

tin projects

above-mentioned Doradilla and Pound Flat projects, as well as
Tallebung Project (NSW, 100%), late 2008 6-hole diamond core YTC drill results incl 1.2m @ 1.36% Sn from 1m, 1m @ 1.30% Sn from 143m, 3.3m @ 0.25% Sn from 103m, 24m @ 0.23% Sn from 163m, 17.7m @ 0.22% Sn from 186.3m, 5m @ 0.21% Sn from 11m, 10m @ 0.17% Sn from 62m, 16m @ 0.15% Sn from 31m, 15.9m @ 0.14% Sn from 52.1m, 31m @ 0.11% Sn from surface, 27m @ 0.11% Sn from 27m
Torrington Project (NSW, 100%), [approx 2km from Taronga Sn deposit, 46.8Mt @ 0.145% Sn] no expl carried out by YTC to date

current fully diluted mc @ .28 = $47.635M, $5M in bank


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## mr. jeff (26 November 2010)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

ann out this morning;



> FURTHER HIGH-GRADE COPPER RESULTS AT NYMAGEE
> YTC Resources Limited (“YTC” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce further strong copper
> results from its ongoing drilling programme beneath the historic Nymagee Copper Mine.
> Holes NMD002 and NMD002W1 were drilled as a parent and wedge hole approximately 40m
> ...




price up 11% on this news, was also strongly up yesterday, so that was nice for someone. Grades look very good.


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## mr. jeff (23 December 2010)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

For an update on YTC, 

there has been no news released, excepting a BRRadio discussion which I haven't yet listened to (on the 20/12). There was negligible movement then, but yesterday YTC was up strongly (8-9% I think ) and again today up 4% this morning. Don't know why.

Chart shows strong volume recently. If anyone has any suggestions that would be interesting.

Cheers.


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## mr. jeff (5 January 2011)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Further to Tech/A's breakout post, just relating that to this thread, YTC has moved up through the 0.50 level - moving yesterday to a high of 0.55 and coming back 6% today on very light volume. 

Is this light volume just a normal reaction to the big move up yesterday, and will a continuation follow ? I am wary of light volume at this time of the year, it seems that stocks move a little differently through this period sometimes...

Light volume on a down day following a strong move is a very good buy signal from what I have read. Anyone with thoughts ?


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## arguls (9 January 2011)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

I remember i wrote message some time ago when this stock was 0.17 AUD and told this one will be tenbagger sometimes. MOD deleted my message.


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## tech/a (9 January 2011)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



> Anyone with thoughts ?




I see YTC's price action as pretty normal.
What we look for is Extremely light volume on a down day within 5 periods of a good up move.
Not seen "so Far" after this recent move.
Next couple of days will tell the tale.


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## happytown (12 January 2011)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

good drill results continue form the hera project with today's ann of "bonanza grade" results of 10.2M @ 68.3 g/t Au from 520.2m [incls 4.2m @ 164 g/t Au from 522m]

extensive resource extension drilling continues

100% return in just over three months on this one


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## springhill (27 July 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

MC - $53m
SP - 21c
Shares - 252m
Options - 3m
Cash - $15m

*HERA PROJECT DEVELOPMENT*
Hera Project Permitting
The Part 3A Application for approval of the Hera Project Development has now entered final determination stage with the NSW Dept. of Planning.
YTC Resources has reviewed the Final Approval Conditions to be recommended to the Deputy Director General and is satisfied that the Final Approval Conditions are consistent with the Company’s expectations.
Accordingly, the Company understands the Hera Project Part 3A Approval is imminent.
Financing
YTC has substantially advanced negotiations on Project funding with a number of funding providers.
Development Contracts
YTC is close to completion of all key project development contracts including underground mining, camp construction and the EPC Contract for process plant construction.

*DRILLING OF NEW EM TARGETS UNDERWAY AT HERA*
YTC has also completed an extensive (‘DHEM’) survey at Hera with a number of high priority targets identified. Strong conductor targets were identified to the north, south and east of the Hera Deposit. All targets are considered likely extensions to the known mineralisation.
Drilling at Hera, designed to sequentially test each of these targets, is now well underway. The first drill hole in the programme, HRD040, intersected strong sulphide mineralisation with visible gold in the target zone. Results for hole HRD040 are expected shortly. The first hole testing the eastern targets (Kershaws) has also intersected strong sulphides in the target zone.
Drilling is currently completing a daughter hole above HRD040, before moving to test the targets identified at Hera north

*ACQUISTION OF OZ MINERALS NYMAGEE TENEMENTS*
YTC has reached agreement with OZ Exploration Pty Ltd (‘OZ’), a subsidiary of OZ Minerals Ltd, to purchase a strategic tenement holding immediately surrounding the Hera-Nymagee Project.
The OZ Minerals tenements represent a logical and exciting addition to YTC’s existing tenement coverage and increase YTC’s tenement holding along the highly prospective Rookery Fault Zone of the Cobar Basin to over 1040 km².

*NEW TARGETS IDENTIFIED AT NYMAGEE*
A down hole EM (‘DHEM’) survey at Nymagee has identified new, high priority targets at Nymagee North, approximately 500m north of the existing Nymagee Resource.
Drill testing of these targets is expected to commence in August

*Appointment of Mr Gary Comb as Non-Executive Director*
On the 4th July, Mr Gary Comb was appointed an Independent Non-Executive Director of YTC Resources. Mr Comb is an engineer and mining industry veteran with over 26 years experience in the Australian Mining Industry, both with mining companies and in mining contractor roles. He spent four years as Chief Executive Officer of BGC Contracting Pty Ltd, the mining contracting arm of West Australian construction group BGC Ltd. From 2003, Mr Comb was Managing Director of Jabiru Metals Limited, taking the Jaguar Copper/Zinc Project from discovery through feasibility, construction to operations. Jabiru Metals was taken over by Independence Group Limited for A$532 million in 2011.
YTC is very pleased to have the addition of Mr Comb’s experience to the Board as the Company approaches the commencement of mining.
*Retirement of Mr Richard Hill as Non-Executive Director*
On the 11th July, YTC advised that Mr Richard Hill had resigned as a Non-Executive Director of YTC. Mr Hill has been a Director since before the Company’s IPO in 2007 and played a key role in the company’s development and in the acquisition of the Hera-Nymagee Projects. The Company thanks Mr Hill for his substantial contribution.

YTC Resources is reviewing its Board composition as it transitions from exploration to mine development.


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## Bushman (27 July 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Actually took a position in YTC today. Over 2m of shares flushed out today. 

Near-term catalysts - 
Hera 3A approval (imminent) 
Hera financing (imminent)
Further exploration results esp downhold magnetics. 

Been hammered due to market worries over the financing of the Hera capex ($73m). Overdone esp as Glencore is a major investor @ 6%. Gcore knows the region well having made plenty on the CSA mine. 

Oversold despite the very challenging capital markets for juniors. IMO, DYOR.


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## springhill (27 July 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



Bushman said:


> Overdone esp as Glencore is a major investor @ 6%. Gcore knows the region well having made plenty on the CSA mine.




Hi Mate, do you mind providing what you know of Glencores involvement with CSA mine? May serve as a template for their involvement with YTC


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## Bushman (30 July 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



springhill said:


> Hi Mate, do you mind providing what you know of Glencores involvement with CSA mine? May serve as a template for their involvement with YTC




Glencore bought Golden Shamrock (listed coy) in mid-1990s - GS owned the CSA mine which is in the Cobar region. If you read some of YTCs presentations, the geological model they are pursuing is that they are sitting on another CSA type deposit. That is why the downhole electro is important ... CSA has lots of blind deposits that were found over time. 

The other advantage is that Glencore can also provide project finance contacts. 

They have also just brought on a new director whose expertise is bringing mining projects on-line. 

So, on that basis, I've had a crack. DYOR, IMO ...


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## springhill (1 August 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

*HERA PROJECT APPROVAL

*
YTC announce that it has today received Project Approval for the Hera Gold Project from the NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure (DP&I) under Part 3A of the NSW Environmental Planning & Assessment Act.
The Approval provides conditions for the construction and establishment of an underground mine and surface processing operations consistent with the Company’s objectives under the Hera Definitive Feasibility Study.
As advised to the market on 26th July 2012, final Approval conditions are within the Company’s expectations and no adjustment to the DFS capital expenditure is anticipated.

The Hera Project will deliver a financially and technically robust underground mine and processing plant producing gold and silver dorÃ© bars and a bulk-lead-zinc concentrate for sale.

Key metrics of the Hera Project, as per the DFS, include:
● High margin, low-cost gold production at A$395/ounce (after base metal credits)
● Ore Reserve of 423,471 Au Eq. ounces at average grade of 7.0g/t Au Eq.
● 7.3 year mine life producing 391Koz Au Equivalent
● Gross revenue of $510 million, and a pre-tax operating profit of $94.8m (based on A$1,450/oz gold).
● Gross revenue of $572 million, and a pre-tax operating profit of $152m (based on A$1,750/oz gold).
● Gold recovery of 94%
● Pre-Production Capital Cost of $73.5m

In addition the Company is close to finalising all key development contracts including;
● Underground mining contract
● EPC Process Plant Contract, and
● Camp Accommodation Contract

The Project Earthworks contract has already been let for the completion of the Stage 1 earthworks


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## mr. jeff (9 August 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Perhaps not a huge operation but with those low costs and great prospects for extensions - and having enjoyed the previous gentle up move, it looks 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 like YTC has some way to go.


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## mr. jeff (9 August 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



mr. jeff said:


> Perhaps not a huge operation but with those low costs and great prospects for extensions - and having enjoyed the previous gentle up move, it looks
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Some way to go _up_ that is. Good action so far.


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## burglar (16 August 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Results from Hera North:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120815/pdf/428136472zk5dd.pdf






_I do not hold_


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## mr. jeff (16 August 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Well considering they have struck massive sulphides, nothing like the reaction for PEX. Nevertheless, promising drilling and extensions to come. Looks like they have some good ground and things are moving well. As far as the chart goes, volume is dropping away and waiting for a signal of whether the buying will continue or whether this was just a major churn. As I hold I will remain optimistic - whilst attempting to remain objective.


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## mr. jeff (9 October 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



mr. jeff said:


> Well considering they have struck massive sulphides, nothing like the reaction for PEX. Nevertheless, promising drilling and extensions to come. Looks like they have some good ground and things are moving well. As far as the chart goes, volume is dropping away and waiting for a signal of whether the buying will continue or whether this was just a major churn. As I hold I will remain optimistic - whilst attempting to remain objective.




I have stood aside until more is known about the potential extension and site plans. The trend remains intact, but looking fragile and better to take the profit off the table and look for more in the future. Again YTC has delivered.


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## rezabd (29 November 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

Trading volume increased a lot after finance deal which will attract few more trader who do trade based on Volume.


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## mr. jeff (29 November 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



rezabd said:


> Trading volume increased a lot after finance deal which will attract few more trader who do trade based on Volume.




Something is up and it has broken recent resistance level at 34c. Whether it is a breakout play though I am not sure however this financing is a milestone and it is quite possible that the move might continue as strategic stakes are taken to prevent others mounting takeover bids.

Watching at this stage.


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## pavilion103 (8 December 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

This is one that I've been in recently. I've liked the price action. I will continue to watch closely to see if it holds above 32c and shoots upwards.


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## Out Too Soon (12 December 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*

sp currently ~0.335 with lotsa BUYS ~0.21c & lotsa SELLS @~0.40c possible 20% profit or 10% loss



Disclosure- now holding just before close of trade. Fingers crossed 

(Also using BELLTrading is soooo much better, free Conditional orders= love it)


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## Country Lad (12 December 2012)

*Re: YTC - YTC Resources*



Out Too Soon said:


> sp currently ~0.335 with lotsa BUYS ~0.21c & lotsa SELLS @~0.40c possible 20% profit or 10% loss




If I may be so bold, most of those bids/offers are irrelevant.  I tend to igore anything 10% away from the current price, particularly for something that is not moving.

My reasoning is that if a price started to fall, much of the buy side would quickly dissapear.  You mention 21 cents in the buys - would really be intersted in a share that has already fallen 37%?

It is a bit like somebody walking into an auction and bidding 21 cents for an article where the bid is already 33 cents - totally irrelevant.

On the sell side anything above 10% higher than the last price is there as hope, not serious, there just in case so I ignore them as well.

The active market then becomes:




Cheers
Country Lad


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## System (5 June 2014)

On June 5th, 2014, YTC Resources Limited (YTC) changed its name and ASX code to Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI).


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## Miner (8 November 2014)

Hi Folks
Any one following AMI now and what is in its plate being a small miner and gold price is diving down ?


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## greggles (24 May 2018)

Miner said:


> Hi Folks
> Any one following AMI now and what is in its plate being a small miner and gold price is diving down ?



Hi Miner, I just noticed it recently and missed its big run over the last nine months. It has gone from under 20c to over 50c and is hitting highs not seen since 2011.

They appear to have some solid gold/silver mining projects near Cobar and Nymagee in NSW and have recently acquired Peak Mines from New Gold Inc. The projects seem to have low AISC and from the brief amount I have read the company will soon be generating strong free cash flow.

Have you been following them?


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## greggles (8 June 2018)

JPMorgan seeks buyers for $156.9m Aurelia Metals block



> JPMorgan was in the market on Thursday afternoon, seeking buyers for a $156.9 million block of Aurelia Metals shares.
> 
> The stake, which represents almost 37 per cent of the company's shares on issue, was being sold on behalf of mining-focused private equity firm Pacific Road Capital, according to a term sheet sent to fund managers.
> 
> The offer price is pegged at 50¢ a share, a 14.5 per cent discount to the last close. JPMorgan is expected to close the book at 630pm Sydney time.


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## leyy (6 August 2018)

Nice move up today to break its recent high of 0.65c and close at 0.66c.

Now at an all time high.


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## So_Cynical (6 August 2018)

Was reading a fund manger write up of Aurelia last night, looks like i missed the big leg up..


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## bigdog (28 September 2018)

Share price: 55 cents (as at 17 July 2018) 
Market capitalisation: $475 million

Aurelia Metals is a low-cost gold miner, focusing on the development and ongoing exploration of the Hera-Nymagee Project in Western NSW.

This includes the high grade gold and base metal Hera deposit, the emerging high-grade copper discovery at the nearby Nymagee copper deposit, and the recently acquired Peak Mines.

Aurelia is one of the lowest cost operators in Australia, helping it to deliver a very strong cash margin.

In the year to 30 June 2018, Aurelia Metals produced 97,374 ounces of gold at an all-in cost of $A509 per ounce. This compares very favourably with the achieved gold price of $A1698 an ounce.

This level of profitability has allowed Aurelia to repay all debt, and to have cash of A$67 million at 30 June 2018.

Having recently completed the acquisition of the nearby Peak Mine, Aurelia is projecting FY19 gold equivalent production of around 200,000 ounces.

The current gold price is around $A1,650 an ounce. Aurelia projects all in cash costs of around $A1,000 an ounce.

Using those projections, a simple back of the envelope calculation suggests Aurelia generates around $130 million cashflow from mining operations in FY19, something that compares very favourably against he company’s market capitalisation of $475 million.

There are many more moving parts to the company, and gold mining is notorious for surprising on the downside.

But there’s little doubt Aurelia is a cheap stock.


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## leyy (7 October 2018)

AMI moving well, closed above 80 cents this week.

Looking to top up on more if given the opportunity around 0.72 cents would be a good entry if it retraces 

Otherwise happy to keep holding.


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## greggles (23 January 2019)

12 month highs for Aurelia Metals today.

Yesterday's Quarterly Report detailed quarterly gold production of 35,834 oz at an AISC of $732/oz and an AIC of $825/oz with Peak Mines producing 19,610 oz at an AISC of $917/oz and Hera Mine producing 16,224 oz at an AISC of $425/oz. Those margins must make AMI one of Australia's lowest cost gold miners. The AISC at Hera Mine is possibly the lowest I've seen.

AMI increased its cash balance by $25 million to $107.9 million as at 31 December 2018 with no debt. Aurelia is in a similar financial position to Silver Lake Resources but has far superior AISC. Surely $1 can't be far away now?


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## Joules MM1 (23 January 2019)

morningstar edits



greggles said:


> 12 month highs for Aurelia Metals today.
> 
> Yesterday's Quarterly Report detailed quarterly gold production of 35,834 oz at an AISC of $732/oz and an AIC of $825/oz with Peak Mines producing 19,610 oz at an AISC of $917/oz and Hera Mine producing 16,224 oz at an AISC of $425/oz. Those margins must make AMI one of Australia's lowest cost gold miners. The AISC at Hera Mine is possibly the lowest I've seen.
> 
> ...




.96's for a swing ?


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## Joules MM1 (23 January 2019)

13 week m/f suggests easy selling into strength for someone
..maybe


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## aus_trader (23 January 2019)

greggles said:


> 12 month highs for Aurelia Metals today.
> 
> Yesterday's Quarterly Report detailed quarterly gold production of 35,834 oz at an AISC of $732/oz and an AIC of $825/oz with Peak Mines producing 19,610 oz at an AISC of $917/oz and Hera Mine producing 16,224 oz at an AISC of $425/oz. Those margins must make AMI one of Australia's lowest cost gold miners. The AISC at Hera Mine is possibly the lowest I've seen.
> 
> ...




Yes it seems to be testing the all time high for the last decade and for good reasons as you've mentioned, as one of the lowest cost gold miners on the ASX. I've also covered the story on AMI when I tipped it back in September last year in the Speculative Stock Portfolio. Certainly one to watch...


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## Zaxon (29 January 2019)

I've chosen AMI for the February stock tipping comp. It's a gold stock, already doing well, and in this turbulent market, more people are falling back on gold.


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## Zaxon (2 May 2019)




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## aus_trader (2 May 2019)

Does a CEO exit warrant a 18% drop in the stock ? I am confused ! All comments / discussions appreciated. I hold the AMI stock and trying to work out whether to hold or fold...


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## Zaxon (2 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> Does a CEO exit warrant a 18% drop in the stock ? I am confused ! All comments / discussions appreciated. I hold the AMI stock and trying to work out whether to hold or fold...



It could be assumed by the wording of the announcement that he was forced out, or at the least, an irreconcilable difference happened between the CEO and the board.  So you're now left with a company that has disarray at the top.

Jim Simpson to an extent, had a "cult of personality".   A lot of shareholders held him in very high regard.  Consider if Elon Musk left Tesla, what would happen to the share price?  JS leaving AMI is a softer version of that. 

Because of the way this was done, a lot of AMI shareholders are very angry.  They feel blindsided. There was never a hint that JS wouldn't be the CEO of AMI for years to come.

Personally, when I saw the announcement at 8:54 this morning I put a sell order in straight away.  Yesterday AMI closed at 74.5. I sold out on opening at 65c.  The stock is now 61c.

So what's my assessment of AMI?  It's possibly a good hold for the long term.  They have good mining assets, and are reasonably profitability.  I think a lot of fundamental investors will stick with the stock despite JS leaving. In the short term, however, sentiment has left his stock. The stock probably won't return to previous highs for some time.

For me the question became: are there better places that my money can be growing where management isn't in disarray?


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## aus_trader (2 May 2019)

Zaxon said:


> It could be assumed by the wording of the announcement that he was forced out, or at the least, an irreconcilable difference happened between the CEO and the board.  So you're now left with a company that has disarray at the top.
> 
> Jim Simpson to an extent, had a "cult of personality".   A lot of shareholders held him in very high regard.  Consider if Elon Musk left Tesla, what would happen to the share price?  JS leaving AMI is a softer version of that.
> 
> ...



Somethings to consider... As you said looks like there was a lot of angry shareholders who took it out on the stock itself by dumping it. Hopefully the anger has dissipated today with this massive slide and all the angry birds  have exited the stock. Let's see what happens tomorrow...


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## Miner (2 May 2019)

aus_trader said:


> Somethings to consider... As you said looks like there was a lot of angry shareholders who took it out on the stock itself by dumping it. Hopefully the anger has dissipated today with this massive slide and all the angry birds  have exited the stock. Let's see what happens tomorrow...



Looking from left field, could JS actually found /did something alarming which market will feel in a couple of months. Remember Aus Drill issue - theft of $10 M by an employee?  A person with a status of Elton Musk does not leave or create the situation to leave overnight - there must be something more there. Either way, if there is no material breach (who knows), then currently AMI creates an opportunity. What do the charts say? 
DNH - luckily withdraw as I put a buy order at 71 cents couple of days back and cancelled that just by hunch.


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## peter2 (3 May 2019)

All trends come to an end. AMI has had a great run. If you look at the top panel of the weekly chart AMI started going up faster than the XAO in Dec18. It continued to do this until March19. We don't know why people sold and stopped this run. It could be due to natural reasons. Businesses need time to complete projects. Investors need to wait for progress reports to feel comfortable paying more. 






Clearly a sudden change in leader (CEO) that's been responsible for the past performance isn't good. AMI started to be sold off one month before this news. Insiders know what's happening within every company and rumours are hard to stop. We may find out in the future if anything is amiss. Chart traders, seeing all the down bars have had the opportunity to reduce their downside exposure without waiting for the reason. Right now the chart is ugly. Sellers are still in control.


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## Zaxon (3 May 2019)

peter2 said:


> All trends come to an end. AMI has had a great run. If you look at the top panel of the weekly chart AMI started going up faster than the XAO in Dec18. It continued to do this until March19.



Yes, it was a wonderful stock to own.


peter2 said:


> Clearly a sudden change in leader (CEO) that's been responsible for the past performance isn't good. AMI started to be sold off one month before this news. Insiders know what's happening within every company and rumours are hard to stop.



This is precisely what happened.  As shareholders, we knew insider info was being leaked, but not given to the market.  Some even knew who the leaker was.  Shareholders had become very unhappy during the last month, and felt continuous disclosure rules weren't being followed.

This is precisely why when the news finally did come through, I sold.  It felt like dating someone who had been lying to you.


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## aus_trader (3 May 2019)

Zaxon said:


> This is precisely why when the news finally did come through, I sold. It felt like dating someone who had been lying to you.



Agree with all of you. You've been spared Miner !
I knew I was buying into a stock that was having some downward force (selling), but there seemed to be some short term reversal signs and perhaps stock finding some support. Either way as per your comment above Zaxon, I feel cheated too !


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## peter2 (28 May 2019)

There's been no additional explanation for the leadership transition released to the market. However the daily chart indicates that a bottom may be in place. There's an acceptable RR (for me) reversal setup on the daily chart. I would prefer to see the POG rising as well.


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## aus_trader (28 May 2019)

Interesting how it had a down day today because I thought it would have followed through after the gap-up day yesterday with a bullish finish.

I believe HL-HH setup would have more weight to a reversal to the strong down-trend than a V-shaped reversal.


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## peter2 (14 June 2019)

Fancy investor presentation released on the 12/6/19. Investors aren't buying what the CEO is trying to sell. AMI continues to be one of the unloved "dogs" of the ASX.


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## aus_trader (14 June 2019)

peter2 said:


> Fancy investor presentation released on the 12/6/19. Investors aren't buying what the CEO is trying to sell. AMI continues to be one of the unloved "dogs" of the ASX.
> 
> View attachment 95427



I've been a fan of AMI, but have to Agree on your view. There must be something tainted that they are not telling us (reporting) about. As you said, the rosy picture they paint (which looks sexy for someone who looks at the fundamentals) is not reflected in the price. AMI is going against the grain while most of it's Gold mining peers are going the other way e.g. SAR, SLR, PRU and even the leader of the pack NCM who broke to the upside after 3 years of sideways grind.


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## frugal.rock (31 December 2019)

Am surprised this one hasn't had much attention for 6 months.
Another stock that popped up on my radar yesterday. I didn't buy.
That's all I can say apart from Van Eck group became a substantial holder on Friday for a 5% stake...
Was going to cull ARQ from the yearly comp to change to this one.
But decided to stick with my convictions. Cheers.
F.Rock
PS, did anything else come of the Director leaving as mentioned in above posts?


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## Clansman (31 December 2019)

I have a watch on it for an entry point as it could be shaping as a cheap takeover target in the coming year.


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## rederob (23 February 2020)

Looking to buy a gold equity this week?
AMI has just spent millions upgrading plant and will be operating at nameplate by end FY.
In the current half AMI will produce about 50koz of gold at an AISC under AUD$1000/oz.
Of these 50koz, some 18koz will be sold into hedges at $1911.  That leaves about 30koz selling into the market at over $2400 (presently spot being $2480).  It appears AMI has no not hedged gold output beyond FY 2020, so they will thereafter be fully exposed to gold's upside.
In FY2021 AMI hopes to target some gold output from its high margin Kairos (aka Peak Deeps) decline, eg. 16m at 71.6g/t Au & 8.5% Pb+Zn.
Last October AMI paid out a ff dividend of 2cps.  That payment reflected approximately 50% of net profit and net cash generation in FY2019.  While AMI has made no commitment to a 2020 dividend, the amount needed to match last year's 2cps is found wholly in gold sales which will no longer be hedged.
More importantly, AMI's major spend on plant upgrade is behind them, so going forward they will be processing a lot more ore a lot more profitably.
Note that AMI is a polymetallic producer and that changes to base metal prices can significantly affect its profitability.
The downsides to AMI relate to water costs for their Hera mine, and the company's mineral assets which will see them through the next 4 years but not much more until they can show conversions of exploration success.
The upside to AMI is the mineral region it operates in which has already shown some good results.


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## rederob (23 February 2020)

Sorry about a bad link above.
It's this one for the pdf file of *good results*.
Or read all their recent announcements here.


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## rederob (26 February 2020)

After Monday's stellar price rise on the back of a surge in the gold price I expect a few cents to fall off its share price today after POG dipped back to levels similar to last Friday's close.
I already hold AMI but did put in an unfilled order on Monday for more, and today will drop the bid to 43 cents.
Below is the recent price action of gold explaining the rationale of my bid.


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## finicky (11 March 2020)

Hmm, big announcement today and *AMI* barely down compared with most of the pure gold stocks.

I have to say with my primitive charting prowess that it's not a monthly chart that I would be comfortable buying yet - if I knew nothing about the company (instead of almost nothing) I would look at that chart and see a possibility of gfc lows around 10c. Not to be too silly, not predicting a stark fall like that for AMI, but just the low level of comfort I feel towards the naked chart. A thick line through 40c, going back years, shows it's a significant level of resistance/support to have been broken I think.
Against this we know the Peak ops and prospects have Gold and AMI should now be able to process it better. Ahead, that stunning drilling intercept from recently discovered Kairos prospect is promising . But in favour of the dodgy chart thus far is the question can management be trusted for full disclosure - as this thread has discussed. Also, currently, zinc and lead aren't too enticing right now are they?

Certainly be watching it, but have to mind my cash carefully through this period. My own plan is to preserve limited cash but cash up some gold stocks and PMs to exchange for a list of tech, finance, industrial stocks *if* /when the goldies pay off.

Disc: Not Held
Sentiment: Watch

COMMISSIONING OF PEAK PLANT UPGRADE COMPLETED
KEY POINTS:
• The $53M upgrade of the Peak ore processing circuit has been commissioned on
time and in-line with guidance.
• The upgraded plant is fully operational with the processing of high grade Chronos
Pb-Zn ore commencing in February 2020 and final project completion activities and
process optimisation to take place over coming months.
• With *gold* being the Company’s main revenue driver, contributing some *65*% of
group revenue, the milestone allows for the maximisation of by-product revenue
and the lifting of overall throughput.

AMI All Data Monthly


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## peter2 (2 April 2020)

AMI reports further good Pb-Zn drill results.





It's almost a valid 1st BB reversal setup (volume still low but day not over).


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## rederob (4 June 2020)

A great exploration update was issued by AMI today.
AMI had been floundering after the COV19 meltdown, but when it earlier in the week announced it had a minimal effect on production its price began to ramp up.


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## rnr (18 June 2020)

One could easily arrive at the conclusion that I am looking for shares that are in a similar state (trade wise) as my previous post in WAF.
The common denominator is that I am looking for securities that, to me, are looking to break to the upside.
Whilst there has recently been a bullish 5 wave higher we are now looking at a lower 3 wave (a-b-c) unfolding before prices start to move higher again.
To this end we have a lower wave a and higher wave b in place and a target price for a wave c at approximately $0.38.
Once again I get the impression that price is ready to move higher before moving as low as $0.38!
WE can only wait and see what happens from here.

[N.B. This is not a recommendation and I do not hold.]


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## Chronos-Plutus (18 June 2020)

rnr said:


> View attachment 104943
> 
> 
> One could easily arrive at the conclusion that I am looking for shares that are in a similar state (trade wise) as my previous post in WAF.
> ...




Recently I sold my holdings in AMI @ 44cents. I had bought in @ 35 cents. 25% return in a month or so, not bad.


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## rnr (18 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Recently I sold my holdings in AMI @ 44cents. I had bought in @ 35 cents. 25% return in a month or so, not bad.




Hi @Chronos-Plutus 

The only conclusion I draw from your post, other than you made a profit on your recent trade, is that you are of the belief that prices are heading lower in the foreseeable future!

Cheers,
Rob


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## Chronos-Plutus (18 June 2020)

rnr said:


> Hi @Chronos-Plutus
> 
> The only conclusion I draw from your post, other than you made a profit on your recent trade, is that you are of the belief that prices are heading lower in the foreseeable future!
> 
> ...




Hey buddy,

Yeah; I think AMI may drift back down to the mid 30s. I only sold because of the massive 25% jump in one day. I thought it was a bit of an overreaction.


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## rederob (19 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Hey buddy,
> 
> Yeah; I think AMI may drift back down to the mid 30s. I only sold because of the massive 25% jump in one day. I thought it was a bit of an overreaction.



Unless POG dips significantly then AMI will likely hold its +40cent price.
AMI just announced its maiden JORC-compliant Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate for its Federation deposit of 2.6 million tonnes at 7.7% Pb, 13.5% Zn, 0.8g/t Au and 9g/t Ag. It will use existing infrastructure to process this planned new mine so has more price in outyears.
More importantly, significant additional plant upgrades have been completed on budget, so ore processing costs and flexibility are now in play.
Added to that AMI will soon be producing from its high value Kairos deposits, and the remainder of 2020 will deliver strong returns, especially as their hedge book will no longer be out of the money. 
AMI has no debt and a cash balance of +$50m so is likely to declare another 2cent dividend later in the year deriving a grossed up yield of about 6%.


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## Chronos-Plutus (19 June 2020)

rederob said:


> Unless POG dips significantly then AMI will likely hold its +40cent price.
> AMI just announced its maiden JORC-compliant Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate for its Federation deposit of 2.6 million tonnes at 7.7% Pb, 13.5% Zn, 0.8g/t Au and 9g/t Ag. It will use existing infrastructure to process this planned new mine so has more price in outyears.
> More importantly, significant additional plant upgrades have been completed on budget, so ore processing costs and flexibility are now in play.
> Added to that AMI will soon be producing from its high value Kairos deposits, and the remainder of 2020 will deliver strong returns, especially as their hedge book will no longer be out of the money.
> AMI has no debt and a cash balance of +$50m so is likely to declare another 2cent dividend later in the year deriving a grossed up yield of about 6%.




I like AMI, but I sold out because I am heavily exposed to another miner which I believe will have better capital growth over the coming year or two. 

AMI is a good company, but their assets aren't tier 1. I am focusing on mine developers that are bringing tier 1 assets into production.


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## rederob (30 June 2020)

An update on AMI for the July tipping competition:


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## rederob (2 July 2020)

Almost on cue from my last post, AMI's gold production doubled from the previous quarter.
That's a good outcome given that I don't think they have yet got into Kairos high grade gold.
Better still was their cash balance jumping over 50% to $78M with no debt.


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## peter2 (7 July 2020)

AMI had a pretty disappointing 2019 and then hit by the coronavirus selloff in March 2020. 
There was a nice BO-HR opportunity at 0.38, but price opened higher and "jumped the creek" (This is a very bullish Wyckoff term.) I liked the shallow sideways trading range and the decreased volume during this consolidation. I was aware of the overhead resistance at 0.55 and thought that if price gets over this then it's likely to continue higher and may even get back to the old high near 0.95. 

@Bazzi   I'm risking 0.10 trying to earn 0.40 and this is an acceptable RR for me.


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## Boggo (8 July 2020)

AMI popped up in my scan last week. I decided not to go with it but added to my SBM holding instead, a decision that is ok at the moment.

Possible weak support around .55 and 0.50 with likely resistance around .65 but the momentum seems to be in an upward move imo.
Just my  worth to be treated with caution !

(click to expand)


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## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

One of my trend darling as popping on different screen up and down in the last few months.it means you probably have systems like mine playing around..
Just in case you get too focussed in trying to find rational fundamental reasons behind some moves.hioe it helps


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## Bazzi (23 July 2020)

For August tipping, the trend is still upwards as mentioned lately above and I see it running through the August steadily upwards


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## rederob (23 July 2020)

AMI announced their Quarterly Activities Report yesterday but barely bounced given that at the same time POG was on a roar.
Good news items:

ASIC now at about A$1100/oz, giving a margin of almost A$1500 with gold sold into an average $2600/oz last quarter
Hedge book closed out, leaving AMI selling into spot market with current prices likely to remain around A$2600/oz given strengthening AUD
Cash balance at $79M with no debt
Further high grade gold intercepts, plus Kairos decline now at target depth - in production by year's end


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## rederob (23 July 2020)

rederob said:


> AMI announced their Quarterly Activities Report yesterday but barely bounced given that at the same time POG was on a roar.
> Good news items:
> 
> ASIC now at about A$1100/oz, giving a margin of almost A$1500 with gold sold into an average $2600/oz last quarter
> ...




*errata:*
First, the above chart is *4-hourly*, rather than 2-hourly, as I tried to fit a longer time frame in and forgot to change the title - my bad - but does not change the trend in any way.
Next, excuse the dyslexia as I keep posting ASIC instead of All-in Sustaining Costs = *AISC.*
As AMI's AISC is strongly linked to the price of its mined base metals, these need to be factored in to future performance.
The recently proven Federation resource is an absolute cracker in terms of base metals, so if further exploration delivers decent gold intercepts we are looking down the track at much higher value still.


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## Boggo (23 July 2020)

Well it did what I expected in my earlier post, hit the wall at ~ .65
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1081098/

I tend to think that it will have another go and go through this time based on the overall pattern and live price action behaviour, just my 

(click to expand)


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## finicky (4 April 2021)

Been attracted to AMI a few times over the past few years but never ventured in. Haven't read anything about it lately but will.

'betweenthelinesfinance' on Patreon has just put out a vid on AMI. He holds some shares and says he _might_ buy more when he reads the forthcoming scoping study for the 'Federation' deposit in a few weeks. Some wonderful drill intersections with strong Zn/Pb credits. He mentions the Dargue acquistion and how the market lost some confidence thinking AMI overpaid.

I like that the m.d has a mining engineering degree (i.e not a geologist), hands on operational roles, including with BHP and that AMI fared well after his appointment as did the previous company he headed, Stanmore Coal (SMR)

I notice on the daily chart that the price in March filled the breakaway gap @ 0.35 from beginning of June 2020! No firm opinion on the chart yet but looks a fair chance of challenging 0.40 again then breaking through the 8-9 mths downtrend resistance line currently cutting in at 0.40+

Interested again
Not Held

Daily


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## rederob (6 April 2021)

finicky said:


> Been attracted to AMI a few times over the past few years but never ventured in. Haven't read anything about it lately but will.
> 
> 'betweenthelinesfinance' on Patreon has just put out a vid on AMI. He holds some shares and says he _might_ buy more when he reads the forthcoming scoping study for the 'Federation' deposit in a few weeks. Some wonderful drill intersections with strong Zn/Pb credits. He mentions the Dargue acquistion and how the market lost some confidence thinking AMI overpaid.
> 
> ...



AMI will commence mining their Kairos deposits in the June quarter.  Until those results are on the balance sheet, then any significant movement in share price will likely be due to more good drilling results, such as those from last week:





The other big price mover for AMI could come from POG, which may have finally turned the corner.  
AMI has no debt and a solid and successful exploration record for a minnow.
Aside from that, it made the clever long term decision to invest heavily in polymetallic production facilities a few years ago, so will be able to take advantage on the present trend of increasingly higher base metal prices.


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## Clansman (6 April 2021)

rederob said:


> AMI will commence mining their Kairos deposits in the June quarter.  Until those results are on the balance sheet, then any significant movement in share price will likely be due to more good drilling results, such as those from last week:
> View attachment 122427
> 
> 
> ...




They've got no debt because they've been mining pockets. I considered buying this in late 2019 and I'm glad I didn't.
Far too many shares on issue and far too much history.


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## rederob (6 April 2021)

Clansman said:


> They've got no debt because they've been mining pockets. I considered buying this in late 2019 and I'm glad I didn't.




If that is the case then Kairos will substantially change that situation.  Then there is the Great Cobar PFS due at the end of the year. 
So right now AMI looks to be a substantially better an investment proposition than any time in recent years (given also that Dargues has been paid for and had a subsequent resource upgrade).


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## Clansman (6 April 2021)

rederob said:


> If that is the case then Kairos will substantially change that situation.  Then there is the Great Cobar PFS due at the end of the year.
> So right now AMI looks to be a substantially better an investment proposition than any time in recent years (given also that Dargues has been paid for and had a subsequent resource upgrade).




Change what situation? The mining of pockets, being glad not have bought it, having far too many shares on issue or having far too much history?


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## rederob (17 April 2021)

With gold back on the rise over recent days, this minnow will reap strong percentage price gains on continuation:


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## Cam019 (29 May 2021)

*AMI *looking interesting here.


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## rederob (17 July 2021)

Some excellent drilling results from multiple AMI's sites has relaunched its price trajectory:






An example of AMI's successful drilling of late:


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## greggles (27 July 2021)

AMI getting smashed today after releasing their Quarterly Activities Report. Gold production down due to lower grades, and copper production also down. Share price is currently down 16.7% to 40c, but it looks like the worst may be over.


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## mullokintyre (20 January 2022)

AMI hit a 52 week high today  at 49.
Back in Favour.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (27 January 2022)

Good Quarterly out for AMI.
Production at the lower end of Guidance, but the AISC is down on previous quarters. which is a good sign
Free cash flow up, so happy to keep holding and will add on further weakness around or below 40.
Up today, one of the few greens I have today.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (7 March 2022)

Another 52 week high today.
Took half off the table, with a profit of 25%.
Not the time to be greedy, and profit will head towards my EV purchase.
Mick


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## rederob (23 March 2022)

Took long enough to get back up there, but we now have a breakout:




	

		
			
		

		
	
I always get a bit curious when prices rise strongly against a trend, and without any announcements, so I reckon there might be another drilling report about to come out with good results.
As a polymetallic producer the continuing price rises in zinc have certainly been a bonus in recent months.
All we need is another lift in POG and AMI should clear its 63.5 cent high of July 2020.


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## mullokintyre (24 March 2022)

After hitting another 52 week high on the open this morning, AMI got crunched when the punters were seemingly not impressed with the released Dargues life of mine statement.
They have revised down their reserves after drilling revealed "complexity at depth affecting mainly grade".
Shine gone off, so I sold the other half, still at a profit, but as good as if I had sold yesterday.
Mick


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## finicky (17 May 2022)

Probably won't bite but there could be a reversal setting up here - at least in the short/med term.
A few reversal or indecisive candles in the last 6 days of trading and the RSI momentum indicator is down at historical level. Morever, price has moved outside the recent downtrend. There has been support at this level which is not observable in this 6 months chart - the support was broken in Aug/Sept 2021 but recovered.
This is a stock that BtL finance has bought a modest amount of and his average price might have been a little higher (not much) than this. Hmm, tempting.

Daily


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## mullokintyre (5 August 2022)

AMI  down   near 52 week lows, but still not attractive enough to get in.
BTL finance has a report out where  its just not attractive enough at the moment, especially witjh lower credits for the  base metals likely to decrease in the next  quarter.
Writ downs for the dud Dargues mine will put pressure on the price once they are accounted for.
So not yet ready to jump back in. despite the big fall since I sold  at 44 and 46.
They need to get some of the yucky stuff cleared off the books.
Mick


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## finicky (5 August 2022)

I think BtL Finance said he was out - which doesn't mean he won't get back in as he has been very impressed by the Federation deposit. I think he's done a recent video dedicated to AMI but I haven't caught up as it's not high in my priorities. Good point about possible write-down of Dargues.


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## mullokintyre (28 November 2022)

According to The Evil Murdoch press Aurelia may be a takeover target.


> Management departures at Aurelia Metals have some pegging the Australian listed group as the next takeover target in the gold mining space.
> The company’s market value is about $160m yet the net present value is about $400m which makes the company look like a bargain.
> 
> Analysts believe the most obvious buyer is fellow Australian listed gold miner Aeris Resources with a $373m market value. One of the reasons the company appears vulnerable is that it has lost key members of management.
> ...



Not sure  if there is any  truth in this scenario, but AMI although a long way from its highs, seems to have turned  in the correct diection.
Seeing as I sold out at much higher prices, may take a small parcel, just in case.
Mick


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