# On the other hand...



## wayneL (19 October 2004)

I don't wan't anyone thinking I'm just a gloomy old doomsayer. My comments on the other thread is a WHAT IF....

So the other side of the coin....

Remember Harry Dent? 
On Wall Street; January 01, 2004; 

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On Wall Street 
January 01, 2004 


In June 2000, bull market poster boy Harry Dent called for the Dow to top 40,000 by 2008. Last year, he declined to be specific about 2003, but said he put out his strongest buy signal in October 2002. 
According to Dent, the prolonged sell-off was right on schedule, and 2003's sharp recovery was its only logical conclusion. With the air out of the bubble, Dent says the Dow is still on track to reach 40,000 by 2009. 
"We are seeing another very strong bull market unfolding from the bottom," he says. "This will end up looking better than the 1990's." 
"People think what happened in the 90's is never going to happen again," he says. "But 2005 is going to be very strong, and 2004 is going to be very in between." 
By "in between," Dent means a gain of only around 10 percent for the year. By the last quarter of the year, investors will have a tremendous buying opportunity. 
"We will eat our hat if we don't see a new high in 2005,"


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## wayneL (19 October 2004)

But there is a note of caution even in Dents material...

Quote
"He expects stocks to perform well through 2008, with the Dow reaching as high as 35,000. Dent calls late 2008 to around 2020 “The Next Depression,” saying that equity investments should be “harvested” before 2009. In fact, he recommends beginning the shift from stocks into long-term Treasuries in late 2006."


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## still_in_school (19 October 2004)

Hi Waynel,

thanks for your interesting post reading... 


i cant predict a crash, but i can be certain that we will experience the biggest stock market crash ever. between the years 2010 - 2011.

my reasoning behind this is, both here and in the US to be eligilbe for the pension, you have to be born before 1945, to gain access to this  (but currently peoople are able to access this... but here is where it gets interesting.)

but if you add 65 years to 1945 - that equals 2010 - 2011, at age 65 you dont need to access your pension anymore... you can access your superannuation.

just being logical here, but if everyone over 65 can then access there superannuation, and pull this money out of the stock market, all at the one time, both here in the US and OZ...

something has to either give or take.... my guess is... were about to experience the biggest crash ever in this time....

Cheers,
sis


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## wayneL (19 October 2004)

SIS,

A lot of people are looking at this as a bad thing...of course for some...a lot...it will be bad...very bad!

But traders stand to make a bundle. The ones than play the dark side that is.

I don't know why more traders don't short sell...or use options or futures. Even in the US where it is piss easy to short sell, most don't. They consider it "unamerican" ...pfffft!

FWIW I'm still convinced we hit trouble before 2011...but at great pains to say, it doesn't really matter if, when or where. Jus' trade the moves 

Cheers


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