# Predictions for 2009



## Dowdy (23 December 2008)

My predictions for 2009


Mining stocks will keep dropping til March-June (except gold).
Agriculture stocks will go up alot in 09
Whichever clean energy the government will choose (solar, wave, wind etc) will go up heaps.
The US will be in unofficial depression (took them almost a year to admit recession)
The AU dollar will go past 1:1 with the US dollar (mainly due to a weak US dollar)


anyone else wanna go


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## Sean K (23 December 2008)

Someone else will start a 'predictions' thread as a New Years resolution.


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## Bushman (23 December 2008)

Ok - 

We will be worrying about inflation, not deflation, at this time next year. 
Gold above $1500 AUD.
Oil at $80 to $90 per barrel. 
Malcolm Turnbull will be ousted by Peter Costello. 
Warnie in the Ashes squad (I wish). 
Interest rates above 6%.


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## Sunder (23 December 2008)

Shares will have another leg down, but bottom in the 2nd quarter

Houses will bottom around final quarter 2009, but will not rise again until at least 2011

We will have our first rate rise from an OCR of 300bp in the final quarter of the year

Unemployment will peak in the final quarter 2009, between 8 and 9%

Oil will rise from current levels, but will probably stabilise around the $70-80 mark

The AUD will meet parity or exceed the USD, but still be significantly weak against the Yen and Euro.


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## Pager (23 December 2008)

Expect the unexpected


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## shccbell (23 December 2008)

Well I have a different view. I think we will see a market rally feb through May to about 10.5K in the DOW and 4,300 ASX followed by a significant decline to below levels today by end of Oct. IMO house prices in Australia will have accelerated declines of about 30 to 35% on present depressed prices and not recover for a minimum of 5 years if not longer. I tip unemployment to hit 9% by year end and stabalise at this level with the USA sinking into a depression like state towards the end of q3. Finally I see the $A at about US.75c most of the year with oil at US$75 by end of q2 and holding.


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## GumbyLearner (23 December 2008)

More IMF bailouts.


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## chops_a_must (23 December 2008)

Bushman said:


> Ok -
> 
> We will be worrying about inflation, not deflation, at this time next year.
> Gold above $1500 AUD.
> ...




I'm reading Security Analysis, and what I find interesting is the perception that rampant inflation was always just around the corner, but never actually eventuated.

I think we'll roll over starting in January, hit about 2800 on the index, and do some funny things from there.

And a hell of a lot of takeover action to continue within the gas and energy sectors...


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## Bushman (23 December 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I'm reading Security Analysis, and what I find interesting is the perception that rampant inflation was always just around the corner, but never actually eventuated.




Not expecting hyperinflation in 2009 - there is a fairly large hole to be filled in the banking system before any of the cash will 'hit' Main Streets across the world. But as convention tells us, prices will rise to meet money supply and the bail out in the US alone is likely to tick over $1.5trillion now. 

But we will see. It is just one big confidence trick being played on us after all with the intention to stop people saving cash and start people investing in 'inflation hedges' and buying stuff. Off course, you need inflation for this to happen as folks tend to buy gold and stuff cash in matresses during a depression. So given all this I predict we will inflate but, as 2008 has well and truely proven, waddafaaark do I or anyone else know in this brave new investment world  

All I do know is that unlike the GD, the modern markets are like a school of whitebait and will turn rapidly!     

As for the ASX, I have tipped a bottom in June 2009 elsewhere so I concur that we will test the November lows at sometime at the end first quarter before the bottom is in.


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## Trader Paul (23 December 2008)

Hi folks,

WPL in 2009 ..... expecting some big winners in the oil sector, 
in the coming year, but January 2009 may bring some negative
surprises for some oilers ... most notably WPL, particularly around:

            02-05012009 ... negative news expected

                07012009 ... minor and positive cycle

           16-23012009 ... 3 significant time cycles to bring
                                 negative news for WPL ..... ???

STU will be another oiler that may suffer, with the cycles 
detailed, above.     

Soon after, STO and STX will also suffer, as several negative 
time cycles come into play, between 23012009 and 20022009.

More later.

have a great day

  paul



=====


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## Indie (23 December 2008)

Rampant deflation all year.
ASX below 2500 by June.
BHP trading under $18.
AUD below .50 USD.
Massive loses in the Australian banking sector.
Official unemployment over 10%.
RBA cash rate at 3%.
Gold below USD$600.
Housing price averages down by 20%.
I will win my fantasy football comp.


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## IFocus (23 December 2008)

2009 will be remembered as the year US consumers started for filling the paradox of thrift holding the US economy down through to 2011 to complete the 1st great depression of the new century

Other than that everything is just gunna be great


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## Glen48 (23 December 2008)

2009 not as bad as 2010 not as bad as 2011


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## 2BAD4U (23 December 2008)

It will begin on January 1 and end December 31


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## 2BAD4U (23 December 2008)

I enjoyed this when I read it. We can predict we've turned a corner when the media tells us so (about 6 months after it happens) and then we will all rush off in the opposite direction.



> Noel Whittaker
> December 14, 2008 12:00am
> 
> AUSTRALIANS should be the luckiest people on Earth. Taxes have been slashed year after year, interest rates have dropped and petrol prices are tumbling.
> ...


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## jonnycage (23 December 2008)

i hope my crap tip for december avexa gets comes back to haunt me

also isolated showers

jonny


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## So_Cynical (23 December 2008)

Dowdy said:


> My predictions for 2009
> Whichever clean energy the government will choose (solar, wave, wind etc) will go up heaps.




Hello...the govt has already chosen cleaner energy, as in energy that emits less GHG's than currently emitted.

And they didn't go up heaps...actually went down.


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 December 2008)

2BAD4U said:


> It will begin on January 1 and end December 31




Agree mate.

gg


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## sinner (24 December 2008)

Not my prediction, but I buy it...




http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/kasun122208.html


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## michael_selway (28 December 2008)

sinner said:


> Not my prediction, but I buy it...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Looks good, I like Gold = DJIA = $5000USD as the bottom you?




thx

MS


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## michael_selway (28 December 2008)

Indie said:


> Rampant deflation all year.
> ASX below 2500 by June.
> BHP trading under $18.
> AUD below .50 USD.
> ...




I like all the above except for GOLD, it should go over $1000USD again at the least?

What do you think of this?










thx

MS


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## Indie (28 December 2008)

michael_selway said:


> I like all the above except for GOLD, it should go over $1000USD again at the least?
> 
> What do you think of this?
> 
> MS




The charts are compelling. 

I agree it's hard to make a case against GOLD atm, but there has been substantial USD weakness over the last couple of months and I would expect the USD to strengthen again early next year and see the GOLD price fall at the same time. Then again I did think we would already be under $600 and it's rallied nicely. So I was wrong on that call. I guess if AUD falls as far as we think then anyone in Australia holding gold is probably going to pretty well.


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## kengaikl (2 January 2009)

Dowdy said:


> My predictions for 2009
> 
> 
> Mining stocks will keep dropping til March-June (except gold).
> ...



According to your predictinos that mining stocks continue to fall (I assume this is due to further falls in commodities) how will the Aussie dollar which has such a high correlation to commodity prices reach parity and beyond? If your predictions are contradicting each other how do you expect them to have the slightest chance of coming true???

I believe the Aussie dollar along with commodity prices will strengthen not because I believe that the world it out of recession but because I believe that the US dollar will weaken significantly  next year.


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## Dowdy (31 January 2009)

kengaikl said:


> According to your predictinos that mining stocks continue to fall (I assume this is due to further falls in commodities) how will the Aussie dollar which has such a high correlation to commodity prices reach parity and beyond? If your predictions are contradicting each other how do you expect them to have the slightest chance of coming true???
> 
> I believe the Aussie dollar along with commodity prices will strengthen not because I believe that the world it out of recession but because I believe that the US dollar will weaken significantly  next year.





The aussie dollar will do well against the US MAINLY because of a weak US dollar, not necessarily due to stronger commodities but that's what i said originally anyways


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## Cooks (31 January 2009)

shccbell said:


> Well I have a different view. I think we will see a market rally feb through May to about 10.5K in the DOW and 4,300 ASX followed by a significant decline to below levels today by end of Oct. IMO house prices in Australia will have accelerated declines of about 30 to 35% on present depressed prices and not recover for a minimum of 5 years if not longer. I tip unemployment to hit 9% by year end and stabalise at this level with the USA sinking into a depression like state towards the end of q3. Finally I see the $A at about US.75c most of the year with oil at US$75 by end of q2 and holding.




I like this prediction


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## cwamit (31 January 2009)

hard to say where the Aussie is heading, one side of the coin is that our interest rates are going to be reduced creating further downward pressure on the dollar and then there is also the government budgets going into deficit which also adds more downward pressure on our dollar.

upside of dollar is actually gold price getting stronger makes our dollar stronger, i think our third biggest export in value is gold.  so if the yank dollar declines against our currency and further spurs gold price increases then this 
offsets the price in Australian value of gold.


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## MRC & Co (31 January 2009)

.................?


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## drillinto (13 February 2009)

Murenbeeld reckons gold will reach $2,300 [USD] 
Brendan Ryan >>> www.miningmx.com 
11 FEB 2009

THE GOLD price should average $945/oz during 2009 but rise to $995/oz by the end of the year and average $1,050/oz during 2010.

Those are the latest predictions made by gold “guru” Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist for Dundee Wealth Economics, speaking at the Mining Indaba being held in Cape Town.

But Murenbeeld added he believed gold would eventually reach $2,300/oz although he did not put a timeframe on this prediction.

The price level of $2,300/oz holds considerable significance for gold investors and analysts because it represents the current, inflation-adjusted value of the price of $850/oz that gold reached early in 1980. 

Interviewed after his presentation Murenbeeld said, “Over the long cycle gold will take out $2,300/oz but that could take up to five years before it happens.” 

Murenbeeld said he believed the gold price had held up remarkably well against the impact of the global financial crisis that erupted last year. 

“Gold has been the best asset to be in. It has risen to new highs in almost every currency and I have been surprised at how well ETF (exchange traded fund) investment in gold held up last year, “ he commented.

He added, “Recessions are bad for everything including gold. You have to remember that gold represents liquidity of last resort which means that sometimes people sell the stuff. 

“It’s what people do to get out of recessions that is good for gold. The metal survived the 2001 recession well because (former Federal Reserve Bank chairman) Alan Greenspan was very quick on the reflation side.”

Murenbeeld highlighted the current reflationary measures being taken by the United States and other major economies and commented, “global money and fiscal reflation will remain necessary for years to come even after the current global financial crisis. 

“That’s because of the social promises made by governments to the ‘baby boomer’ generation which is about to retire. Printing money is good for gold and governments’ choices for debt reduction are limited. “

Turning to the role of the world’s central banks – which at times have been heavy sellers of gold – Murenbeeld commented, “I sense central bank attitudes to gold are changing and they no longer view it as inherited nuclear waste.

“I feel central banks are getting religion again and I don’t think they will be as negative on gold as they have been in the past.”

Murenbeeld concluded, “we are in an uptrend. I am absolutely convinced of that but developments might not take place as fast as you might want.

“It is normal in a cyclical, long-term uptrend that you could have one or even two years of counter-trend movements. It could take a while before the previous peak gold price of $1,030/oz gets taken out.”


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## nunthewiser (13 February 2009)

My prediction ??? ....... uh oh ..... 


we gunna have the biggest 1-2 day fall we ever seen


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## CFDTrading (26 February 2009)

*Stocks To Open Flat As President Obama Fails To Inspire Equity Traders*

Wednesday, 25 February 2009 12:57:53 GMT
Written by John Rivera, Analyst 

U.S. equity futures spent most the overnight session flat after yesterday’s bounce on the back of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony. The central bank head eliminated fears that the government would nationalize troubled banks, which has been weighing on the markets. Traders were hoping that President Obama in his first formal address to Congress would give more details pertaining to the course of action for the banking system. The president did pledge to do what was needed to reignite lending to consumers and businesses. However, he also spoke of more regulation for the financial markets which will not be welcomed news on the street.  We could further clarification of the governments intentions in the upcoming days which could help build on yesterday’s rally. In the meantime Fed Chairman Bernanke will continue his testimony today which may help ease concerns further. The existing home sales report is expected to show a slight increase in purchases in January for a consecutive month. Yet, the number remains near all-time lows and will be an example of how much further the market needs to go before it is deemed healthy again.

*Dow Jones     7350.94*
The DJIA saw across the board gains yesterday led by a 11.3% increase from financials, which could lead to a retrace today as concerns over the sector linger. 

*NASDAQ      1441.83*
The Nasdaq rose nearly 4% as tech stocks regained their favor with traders rising nearly 4% on the day. The sector is still viewed as the best positioned to take advantage of a rebound but its solid balance sheets also offers protection if the downturn continues.

*S&P 500      773.14*
The S&P 500 bounced from its November lows on the back of an 11.6% gain in financials.  An improvement in existing home sales could help lift the broader index today as increasing demand will help boost home prices which have fallen by 18.5% which was the highest amount on record.  

*Current Snap Shot*


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## Trembling Hand (26 February 2009)

CFD Trader this relates to this thread how??

Stop spewing out this  It is of ZERO value.


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## MrBurns (26 February 2009)

How many prediction threads do we need ?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12771


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## TheAbyss (26 February 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> My prediction ??? ....... uh oh .....
> 
> 
> we gunna have the biggest 1-2 day fall we ever seen




And i predict the market will bounce to such a point that we will wonder what we were worrying about. 

Conversely you could also say we havent seen the lowest low yet either.

You know i am right, just dont ask me to put a date on it. 

I have learned one thing for sure in the last 18 months. Brokers, analysts and the financial press are clueless. Brokers do what they are paid to do, Analysts only see what a copmpany board is prepared to show them what is going on within a comapny so the real skeletons and or positives are left to the few at the top of the tree and the press needs no comment as they are purely a historical resource and i pity anyone who uses them for a future reference to anything.


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