# NUF - Nufarm Limited



## Ken (27 October 2006)

nufarm have come up on the radar.

recommendation as a buy on westpac broking.

It seems undervalued.

Would people be steering clear of nufarm due to weather conditions?

intrinsic valuation is $11.50


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## 3 veiws of a secret (28 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> nufarm have come up on the radar.
> 
> recommendation as a buy on westpac broking.
> 
> ...




Ken are you stalking my portfolio????? try this link and I know its a long listen but it gives you a good cross section of where they are coming from and going too..........I normally click windows media symbol top r/hand corner......
http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?act=radio


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## Ken (28 October 2006)

lol,

nah just looking for some companys undervalued.


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## niknah (6 November 2007)

They announced a bid from ChemChina + Blackstone + Fox Paine today(yesterday)...
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NUF&E=ASX&N=286874

Was hoping for a price closer to $20

Here's a nice story about them...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22708696-643,00.html


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## bigdog (11 December 2007)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22901815-643,00.html

*Shares hit after $3bn offer disappears*
Geoffrey Newman | December 11, 2007

INVESTORS hammered shares in pesticide maker Nufarm yesterday after its Chinese suitor unexpectedly pulled out of a $3 billion agreement to buy the company.

But there is still confidence the company will eventually be sold.

Nufarm shares plunged more than 12 per cent after state-owned Chinese chemical giant ChemChina told Nufarm it was unable to put forward a concrete proposal, with the deal's failure being blamed on credit markets.

Nufarm entered an exclusivity deal with ChemChina and its private equity partners when the offer was announced on November 5. That deal was due to expire last night but it apparently became clear over the weekend that the takeover consortium was unable to come through with a detailed proposal in time.

"The consortium has advised Nufarm that it will be unable to formalise its proposal prior to the expiry of the exclusivity period and, accordingly, discussions between Nufarm and the consortium have ceased," Nufarm said in a statement yesterday.

Nufarm had recommended its shareholders accept the offer of $17.25 a share, plus a special dividend of up to 30c a share.

The deal - the biggest so far between Australian and Chinese companies - would have combined Nufarm with the largest pesticide business in China to create a group with $2.6 billion in annual revenues, described as the global leader in off-patent crop protection.

The supply of debt finance, which had dried up in the wake of the US sub-prime loans crisis, appeared to be improving in early November when the Nufarm deal was first announced, but credit markets unexpectedly deteriorated again less than a fortnight later, driving back up the cost of money needed to fund the deal.

It has also been suggested that there was tension between the Chinese, who were focused on the longer-term performance of the business, and their US private equity partners Blackstone and Fox Paine, who were concerned about the shorter-term economics of the deal and therefore were more sensitive to the cost of funding, which effectively doubled since the crunch began mid-year.

Nufarm chief executive and major shareholder Doug Rathbone is understood to be particularly annoyed at having his attention diverted from the business for a month for no result, especially since it was never formally up for sale, but was enticed by the high price offered.

A company spokesman yesterday described it as a "very onerous and distracting process".

"We are disappointed that the deal couldn't be completed," he said.

But many in the market still expect an eventual takeover of Nufarm.

The company says a number of parties have expressed interest in buying the business.

From here you can use the Social Web links to save Shares hit after $3bn offer disappears to a social bookmarking site.


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## nioka (21 February 2008)

Today I bought 20l of Roundup. The price has gone up 50%+ since I bought the last pack. Accompaning the pack was a leaflet explaining the price rise. The reason was a shortage of product because of excessive demand. Now the cost of production and distribution hasn't gone up 50% so the profit margin must be much higher than before. Add this to the easing of the drought in the cropping areas and Nufarm must be heading for a bumper year.


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## chops_a_must (21 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Today I bought 20l of Roundup. The price has gone up 50%+ since I bought the last pack. Accompaning the pack was a leaflet explaining the price rise. The reason was a shortage of product because of excessive demand. Now the cost of production and distribution hasn't gone up 50% so the profit margin must be much higher than before. Add this to the easing of the drought in the cropping areas and Nufarm must be heading for a bumper year.




Yeah, I've been chatting to someone privately here about NUF. Services to agriculture are probably a good place to be. Aren't too many though. IPL is the other that I am in.

Talking to a few farmer clients of mine, they were saying roundup has gone up something like 300%?? in the last year. Something stupid anyway. And there is shortages of bulk supplies because of the demand and summer rain. So farmers apparently are on selling it to others at a fair markup.

Just waiting for a suitable entry on NUF here...


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## Dutchy3 (13 August 2008)

Short on this one today ... this could really fall out of bed from here. Had a lunge to the south a few weeks ago and managed to catch itself back ... will it recover again soon?


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## Bluebeard (12 December 2008)

Whats peoples views on this stock, Im looking for more information and in the process of doing my research, if people are looking at ag services industry would people be preferring IPL or Nufarm or maybe something else.


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## roadtripping (14 March 2009)

Watching & tempted to get into Nufarm, most major brokers also recommending at present - for what that's worth. But am a little frightened still by their current debt (Debt/Equity ratio 73.6%) esp. with them still buying up their o/s competitors.  thoughts appreciated.... 
Felix.


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## cheeyeen (25 June 2009)

Just wondering anyone knows why NUF falls today?  I am tempted but would like to know whether there is any change of conditions.


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## haunting (25 June 2009)

cheeyeen said:


> Just wondering anyone knows why NUF falls today?  I am tempted but would like to know whether there is any change of conditions.




Old bad news, on the 17/6 - _downgraded its earnings guidance for 2008-09. It cut its forecast by 15 per cent to a net operating profit of $A187 million. It blamed the downgrade on a fall in glyphosate sales. The company has just raised $A300 million in capital._

The cap raising was at $11.25 per share closing date 23/6, which probably explains why the dump today.

The good news is at the current price, the stock is quite oversold, I am expecting a bounce from this level (if lower @9.00), soon.


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## cheeyeen (25 June 2009)

haunting said:


> Old bad news, on the 17/6 - _downgraded its earnings guidance for 2008-09. It cut its forecast by 15 per cent to a net operating profit of $A187 million. It blamed the downgrade on a fall in glyphosate sales. The company has just raised $A300 million in capital._
> 
> The cap raising was at $11.25 per share closing date 23/6, which probably explains why the dump today.
> 
> The good news is at the current price, the stock is quite oversold, I am expecting a bounce from this level (if lower @9.00), soon.




Thanks Haunting,  I also just saw the news that Credit Suisse downgrades the stock to underperform, and profit forecast to below NUF's management guidance citing deterioration in outlook for glyphosate which is 35% of sales for NUF business.


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## dmagnus (29 June 2009)

$7.5 would be a good price*********



15% downgrade hmmm.... looks ugly


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## outback (24 July 2009)

From under $9 to close at above $11 in a couple of days, interesting. Today they come clean on a takeover, so who knew what before the announcement to start the ride? Now where to from here? 

It's times like these I feel like a punter at a horse race.


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## oldblue (24 July 2009)

Of course this didn't come entirely out of the blue - the Chinese had tried before and to a lot of investors it was only a matter of when they would try again.
A combination of a depressed market, a profit downgrade from NUF and subsequent drop in the SP were all the ingredients needed to re-ignite a bid.
I bought a few today because I reckon NUF is a well run company with a good business and prospects. At $10-$11 I'll be happy to hold, whether or not this situation develops into an actual offer.


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## sidious (24 July 2009)

Seems like China is buying a lot these days? But have they bought anything that's overpriced. GCL? OZL? RIO almost, GMG, and so on and so forth. Poin is they will not lose face by buying an overpriced item. They would most likely wait for the next downturn to buy again. Very wise business people. Of course they will haggle down the price. 

In consideration of the above, my fair price for my NUF holding bought at $9 is $35. . That's a bargain!


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## persistentone (25 July 2009)

oldblue said:


> Of course this didn't come entirely out of the blue - the Chinese had tried before and to a lot of investors it was only a matter of when they would try again.
> A combination of a depressed market, a profit downgrade from NUF and subsequent drop in the SP were all the ingredients needed to re-ignite a bid.
> I bought a few today because I reckon NUF is a well run company with a good business and prospects. At $10-$11 I'll be happy to hold, whether or not this situation develops into an actual offer.




Can you summarize the previous Chinese bid for Nufarm?  Who was the buyer, and what was the price?   When was the offer made, and what broke that deal up ultimately?


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## oldblue (25 July 2009)

Have a look back in this thread, particularly the links to news items provided in posts 4 and 5.


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## persistentone (25 July 2009)

oldblue said:


> Have a look back in this thread, particularly the links to news items provided in posts 4 and 5.




So based on that history, the bad credit markets, and the improbability of getting any competitive bidding started, I guess we should not hope for more than a AUD $14 to $16 bid?

What is the relationship between the entity making the new bid and the different Chinese company that made the bid in 2007?   I guess it wouldn't hurt to look at the new bidder's financials and see what they can put together out of pocket without attracting debt financing.


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## persistentone (25 July 2009)

I see AUD $527 Million on Sinochem's balance sheet, and they have not quite twice that much as debt already on their balance sheet.

So how are these guys going to pull off a $3B merger proposal?

Assume that Sinochem earns roughly AUD $150M per year (that was my rough calculation for 2008 based on the Renminbi denominated financials showing on Reuters).   Assume that Nufarm can add in another $150M per year.  Assume they finance the AUD $3B buyout as a 10 year loan at 9% interest.    That means they have AUD $450M in interest payments each year, and they cannot afford to do this deal?   

Guys, can we pool together on this and maybe someone else can show me the errors in the calculation?   It doesn't look to me like Sinochem can afford to do this deal.


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## persistentone (25 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> I see AUD $527 Million on Sinochem's balance sheet, and they have not quite twice that much as debt already on their balance sheet.
> 
> So how are these guys going to pull off a $3B merger proposal?
> 
> ...




P.S. If the numbers above were right, the only deal they could afford to pay on a 10 year loan would be around $11.33/share, hardly enough of a premium to make a deal worth doing?


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## oldblue (25 July 2009)

The original proposal involved private equity firms who would have been taking a stake. This fell over, largely because of the cost of and lack of credit, although there were other reasons too as you will have read.

We don't know if these or other parties will be involved this time around but credit markets have eased a bit in the meantime. I'd be a bit wary of trying to base too much on the published financials though. If the Chinese authorities think it's a good idea, the funds will be found. For that reason I wouldn't try to calculate/guess what an offer might be. A lot will depend on how much Doug Rathbone wants for his stake and whether or not "agreement" can be reached on this.

I'm holding NUF and won't be too upset if nothing comes of this, at this time.


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## sidious (25 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> I see AUD $527 Million on Sinochem's balance sheet, and they have not quite twice that much as debt already on their balance sheet.
> 
> So how are these guys going to pull off a $3B merger proposal?
> 
> ...




Are you saying something like an ant wants to make out with an elephant?
The ant may have some cash hidden so the elephant would most likely agree!


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## oldblue (26 July 2009)

A good, balanced assessment from Stephen Bartholomeusz, who's always worth reading IMO.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...romance-pd20090724-U95CF?OpenDocument&src=kgb


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## persistentone (28 July 2009)

I need help reading the Nufarm cash flow statements for the last three quarters.   The operating cash flow is showing massive operating cash flow losses, yet the balance sheet doesn't reflect this loss to cash.   The financing section of the cash flow is showing huge repayments of debt - about $500M every six months - but again I don't see the cash part of the balance sheet reflecting this change.

It's hard to read because the operating cash flow doesn't work back from the operating earnings.  Instead it pulls out of nowhere "cash receipts" and "cash payments".

How is it they are able to pay back so much debt and show such large operating cash losses, while not moving cash much on the balance sheet, and when the operating earnings are only around $75M per half year result?


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## oldblue (28 July 2009)

NUF has an unusual balance date, 31 July, due to the particular seasonal nature of its business. It also has a very unbalanced seasonal business, typically showing a build up in inventory and borrowings in the first half and often showing a loss for this period.
I havn't seen accounts for the last three quarters and wasn't aware that NUF issued quarterly accounts but the balance sheet as at 31 July 08 showed total debt of $939m. As at 31 January 2009 it was $1655m, reflecting the above seasonal trend.


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## persistentone (28 July 2009)

oldblue said:


> NUF has an unusual balance date, 31 July, due to the particular seasonal nature of its business. It also has a very unbalanced seasonal business, typically showing a build up in inventory and borrowings in the first half and often showing a loss for this period.
> I havn't seen accounts for the last three quarters and wasn't aware that NUF issued quarterly accounts but the balance sheet as at 31 July 08 showed total debt of $939m. As at 31 January 2009 it was $1655m, reflecting the above seasonal trend.




I am still pretty confused about how to reconcile their cash flow to their balance sheet or income statement.  According to Reuter's data, for the last three six month reporting periods:

Period ending Jan 31, 2008:  $552.3M net debt repaid/retired
Period ending Jul 31, 2008:  $452M net debt repaid/retired
Period ending Jan 31, 2009:  $539M net debt repaid/retired

Does that agree with your source?


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## oldblue (28 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> I am still pretty confused about how to reconcile their cash flow to their balance sheet or income statement.  According to Reuter's data, for the last three six month reporting periods:
> 
> Period ending Jan 31, 2008:  $552.3M net debt repaid/retired
> Period ending Jul 31, 2008:  $452M net debt repaid/retired
> ...




Hi p.

I think you're mis-reading the data.

It looks to me like *net issuance* of stock/debt of $505.5m, $580.6m and $491.9m respectively for the three sixmonthly periods - from the Reuters site.


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## persistentone (28 July 2009)

oldblue said:


> Hi p.
> 
> I think you're mis-reading the data.
> 
> It looks to me like *net issuance* of stock/debt of $505.5m, $580.6m and $491.9m respectively for the three sixmonthly periods - from the Reuters site.




I read it backwards you are right.   So they took down that much debt, and increased cash accordingly.   But the balance sheet doesn't show increasing cash balances.   Income statement also doesn't show losses.    So where did they spend all of that cash?


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## oldblue (28 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> I read it backwards you are right.   So they took down that much debt, and increased cash accordingly.   But the balance sheet doesn't show increasing cash balances.   Income statement also doesn't show losses.    So where did they spend all of that cash?




My guess is that it will show up in the buildup of inventories, particularly at the two January half year dates. That's the nature of this particular business.


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## persistentone (28 July 2009)

oldblue said:


> My guess is that it will show up in the buildup of inventories, particularly at the two January half year dates. That's the nature of this particular business.




There it is; you are right.    I see the inventory build, but I never see the inventory letting up.   Given the macroeconomic situation, I wonder if we don't see a big write down of inventory at some point.

P.S., I'm an official Nufarm owner as of yesterday.   While I calculate that Sinochem cannot afford much more than a $11 offer on typical financing terms, I have to remember that Sinochem is an ex government enterprise, so probably they can pull in some strings to get some extraordinary financing arrangement.  Enough analysts published a $14 target bid that there must be merit to that number.

An article on Bloomberg says "Sinochem could offer between A$12 and A$15 a share for Nufarm, according to David Halliday, a trader at Macquarie Group Ltd."   Frankly that's not a lot of upside to the investment, and if the negotiations collapse we are back to $9 quickly.

So $2 down and up to $5 up is not a great trade, but my secret hope is that the early press release gets us a competitive bid.   With competition from a larger firm, I think we could get a $17 to $19 bid.    At the same EBITDA multiple as the prior Chinese bid, we would be looking at a $21 bid.   That's obviously not very likely to repeat, as it's just a different era now much less accepting of highly geared deals.


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## cheeyeen (28 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> There it is; you are right.    I see the inventory build, but I never see the inventory letting up.   Given the macroeconomic situation, I wonder if we don't see a big write down of inventory at some point.
> 
> P.S., I'm an official Nufarm owner as of yesterday.   While I calculate that Sinochem cannot afford much more than a $11 offer on typical financing terms, I have to remember that Sinochem is an ex government enterprise, so probably they can pull in some strings to get some extraordinary financing arrangement.  Enough analysts published a $14 target bid that there must be merit to that number.
> 
> ...




I got the exposure through NFNG.  Upside is a bit over 20% at current price.  I am hoping there is support around 75AUD mark if the deal didn't go through, and should still get dividend as long as the business is profitable.


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## persistentone (28 July 2009)

cheeyeen said:


> I got the exposure through NFNG.  Upside is a bit over 20% at current price.  I am hoping there is support around 75AUD mark if the deal didn't go through, and should still get dividend as long as the business is profitable.




What is NFNG, and what is relationship to Nufarm?   Does Nufarm have some kind of income security?    What is the symbol for NFNG?


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## cheeyeen (28 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> What is NFNG, and what is relationship to Nufarm?   Does Nufarm have some kind of income security?    What is the symbol for NFNG?




NFNG is the convertible note for Nufarm. (NFNG is the code).  It has a face value of 100AUD and currently trading at 83AUD.  From the prospectus Nufarm will redeem the note at face value if the company is being taken over.  It is paying an interest of 6 months BBSW + 1.9% margin, due to step up in 2011.  I got it a few weeks back after the profit warning, thought it is a less risky way of getting exposure to any takeover activity.


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## persistentone (29 July 2009)

cheeyeen said:


> NFNG is the convertible note for Nufarm. (NFNG is the code).  It has a face value of 100AUD and currently trading at 83AUD.  From the prospectus Nufarm will redeem the note at face value if the company is being taken over.  It is paying an interest of 6 months BBSW + 1.9% margin, due to step up in 2011.  I got it a few weeks back after the profit warning, thought it is a less risky way of getting exposure to any takeover activity.




I am not able to pull up NFNG.AX on Reuters.     Is it coded a different way?

What would be the best site to chart that one on? 

I am a little confused by the terms for this one.   I see them described as "7.48% Perpetual" online, but the 2008 annual report says NFNG is actually a floating rate?


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## persistentone (29 July 2009)

cheeyeen said:


> NFNG is the convertible note for Nufarm. (NFNG is the code).  It has a face value of 100AUD and currently trading at 83AUD.  From the prospectus Nufarm will redeem the note at face value if the company is being taken over.  It is paying an interest of 6 months BBSW + 1.9% margin, due to step up in 2011.  I got it a few weeks back after the profit warning, thought it is a less risky way of getting exposure to any takeover activity.




I tried to edit my last message in place and the system timed me out.   Dang.

I am confused by the reset in 2011.    The 2008 annual report says that on 11/24/2011 they can EITHER "reset" OR "step up" the security.

Let's take step up.   That would mean they must pay 1.9% + 7.48%?    Since the instrument is described on some sites as "floating rate" it is not clear to me whether 7.48% is a hard number that would be stepped up.

Does the security have a perpetual step up feature, 1.9% every five years?

I'm more concerned by the "reset" option.   What does that mean?   Does that mean they get to look at rates on similar instruments and reset the base rate?    They do state "reset" as an "OR" to "step up" so that implies it is an alternative to step up.

If they are paying a fixed rate 7.48%, at current prices they have an effective annual yield just under 10%.  Is it right?   They claim this is an unfranked dividend rather than interest payment?   Why is that?   As a non resident I'll have a higher withholding on the unfranked dividend, and it clearly is an interest payment conceptually?

What price did you get in at?   It's certainly an interesting way to play this situation.   I would like to see price come back to $76.


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## persistentone (29 July 2009)

cheeyeen said:


> NFNG is the convertible note for Nufarm. (NFNG is the code).  It has a face value of 100AUD and currently trading at 83AUD.  From the prospectus Nufarm will redeem the note at face value if the company is being taken over.  It is paying an interest of 6 months BBSW + 1.9% margin, due to step up in 2011.  I got it a few weeks back after the profit warning, thought it is a less risky way of getting exposure to any takeover activity.




Where does one get a time graph of BBSW?   I saw some indications that it has crashed recently.    I guess the recent softening of NFNG's price might simply mirror the fact that BBSW itself is coming down?

They have the option to step up by 1.9%, but the language here is all to Nufarm's favor.   If BBSW has crashed, then they "reset" NFNG to a low rate.   If inflation takes off and bank paper is getting issued at 12%, then Nufarm simply ignores that and "steps up" to rate 1.9% higher than the prior rate, but still way below the market rate.

I dislike the fact that the board can simply decide to not pay a distribution, and the distribution does NOT accumulate and there is no obligation incurred to pay.

Really this thing looks pretty risky:  you have the illiquidity of a bond with none of the protections for principal and no guarantees whatsoever of any coupon payment.


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## cheeyeen (29 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> I tried to edit my last message in place and the system timed me out.   Dang.
> 
> I am confused by the reset in 2011.    The 2008 annual report says that on 11/24/2011 they can EITHER "reset" OR "step up" the security.
> 
> ...




The full details of the note is in the prospectus.
http://www.nufarm.com/Assets/3429/1/Nufarm_Prospectus.pdf

It said NUF has option to convert, step up, redeem, re-market, reset on a step up date.  Current interest rate is a margin of 1.9% over the 6 months BBSR.  If NUF chooses to let the rate to "step-up", then in 2011 the new margin will be 3.9% (Interest rate is 6 month BBSR + margin).  I think it is only one time step up.  Yes, I think they do have the option to reset to the "market rate" at that time.  After all, they wouldn't want to pay more than the market rate.  But the holder do have the option of whether to accept the new rate I think.  Depends on the market condition at that time, a margin of 3.9% shouldn't be that bad (unless NUF's credit rating got downgrade again).  I figure the price should probably be higher than 75AUD (I got at 75).  As I said, I take it mainly as a less risky bet on the takeover action.  If it doesn't eventuate, then the downside shouldn't be that bad and I would still get pay interest.  If it happens, then I am out at 100AUD...   

According to the prospectus, "NSS are perpetual, subordinated, unsecured, Redeemable, Exchangeable notes".  I would think it is interest payment.  But I can't be sure.  You would have to ask them directly..


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## cheeyeen (29 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> Where does one get a time graph of BBSW?   I saw some indications that it has crashed recently.    I guess the recent softening of NFNG's price might simply mirror the fact that BBSW itself is coming down?
> 
> They have the option to step up by 1.9%, but the language here is all to Nufarm's favor.   If BBSW has crashed, then they "reset" NFNG to a low rate.   If inflation takes off and bank paper is getting issued at 12%, then Nufarm simply ignores that and "steps up" to rate 1.9% higher than the prior rate, but still way below the market rate.
> 
> ...




Persistentone, it looks like you are not very familiar with interest rate securities.  BBSW is the interest rate at which Australian banks lend to each others (Europe and US use LIBOR mainly), it is usually following, and a bit higher than, the Reserve Bank Cash Rate.  During the peak of the financial crisis it went much higher than the Cash Rate because bank no longer trust each others and require higher margin to lend to each others.  I am not sure what do you mean by BBSW "has crashed recently".  If you refer to the rate being down sharply, that is because the Reserve Bank has cut the interest rate from over 7% down to 3%.  BBSW just follow that.  The declining price of NFNG is more a reflection of investors require much higher margin for a BB rated note (the current margin of 1.9% is decided in 2006 where the credit market was much much more generous than now).  Also most recently decline is probably because of the profit downgrade by NUF.  They do have fair a bit of debt, and every profit downgrade increase the risk of them not paying interest. But the price is holding quite well compare to NUF.

When they said step-up or reset, it is referring to the margin.  Remember the interest rate is express as "6 months BBSW plus the margin".  If inflation takes off and the Cash Rate is now 12%, then you will get 12% (or a little higher) + 3.9% = near 16%.  They do have an advantage to be able to choose to step up the margin to 3.9% if their credit rating gets downgrade badly in 2 years time where they would have to pay much higher than 3.9% margin to borrow from the market. If not and they choose to reset to market rate, by then I think there is an option to have it redeemed.  I also fail to see the problem in accepting market rate at that time?  I assume market rate means no matter where I go, I would get similar rate for similar risk profile.  So if everyone agree that it is a fair rate, then I assume the share price will get near face value rather than a big discount as currently shown.  

The board can choose not to pay interest, but I fail to see how it is more risky than the ordinary shares.  If they don't pay interest for NFNG, they are not allowed to pay dividend for NUF.  If NUF goes bankrupt, again NFNG is ranked higher than ordinary NUF shareholders.  As I said, I use NFNG to bet that the Chinese might come back for an offer (I got it just after the profit downgrade).  Illiquid, yes.. protection for principal and interest payment, definitely better than the ordinary shares.  Unless you are talking about it is risky to bet on the takeover offer.. or you think NUF is not a good company.


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## persistentone (30 July 2009)

cheeyeen said:


> Persistentone, it looks like you are not very familiar with interest rate securities.  BBSW is the interest rate at which Australian banks lend to each others (Europe and US use LIBOR mainly), it is usually following, and a bit higher than, the Reserve Bank Cash Rate.  During the peak of the financial crisis it went much higher than the Cash Rate because bank no longer trust each others and require higher margin to lend to each others.  I am not sure what do you mean by BBSW "has crashed recently".  If you refer to the rate being down sharply, that is because the Reserve Bank has cut the interest rate from over 7% down to 3%.  BBSW just follow that.




Remember I am not Australian, so BBSW isn't a familiar entity to me.

My question is where can I go to see a time graph of BBSW?



cheeyeen said:


> The declining price of NFNG is more a reflection of investors require much higher margin for a BB rated note (the current margin of 1.9% is decided in 2006 where the credit market was much much more generous than now).  Also most recently decline is probably because of the profit downgrade by NUF.  They do have fair a bit of debt, and every profit downgrade increase the risk of them not paying interest. But the price is holding quite well compare to NUF.




If the dividend paid swings wildly based on BBSW, don't you think NFNG is going to reflect those swings as well?    BBSW was above 7% for a while and now comes down to around 3%.   That's a major change in the dividend paid.   Why shouldn't the security reflect that?

I agree credit rating affects price too, but typically those are gradual changes.   Going from a 7% to 3% change on BBSW in a few months is huge.

As for price, in the last year the NUF stock went from $17 to $9, about 45% down.   In a similar timeframe NFNG was down 35%, so a little safer yes but not much, and you do cap your upside.



cheeyeen said:


> When they said step-up or reset, it is referring to the margin.  Remember the interest rate is express as "6 months BBSW plus the margin".  If inflation takes off and the Cash Rate is now 12%, then you will get 12% (or a little higher) + 3.9% = near 16%.




Until I read prospectus I didn't realize it was resetting every six months, so sorry about that.



cheeyeen said:


> They do have an advantage to be able to choose to step up the margin to 3.9% if their credit rating gets downgrade badly in 2 years time where they would have to pay much higher than 3.9% margin to borrow from the market. If not and they choose to reset to market rate, by then I think there is an option to have it redeemed.  I also fail to see the problem in accepting market rate at that time?  I assume market rate means no matter where I go, I would get similar rate for similar risk profile.  So if everyone agree that it is a fair rate, then I assume the share price will get near face value rather than a big discount as currently shown.




I'm really not clear at this point on what the "reset" option entails.   In the case of reset do they still have to markup by 1.9%?   Since as you point out they are in effect resetting the base rate every six months anyway, why even have a "reset" option?    It sounds like a trick.



cheeyeen said:


> The board can choose not to pay interest, but I fail to see how it is more risky than the ordinary shares.




They are apparently paying an unfranked dividend and not interest.   I was saying it is more risky than a *bond*.    The problem is you have the reward profile of a bond (gain capped at $1) but the risk profile of a stock (unlimited loss, no accumulation of interest, perpetual risk of capital never being returned, and very poor credit hierarchy protections).



cheeyeen said:


> If they don't pay interest for NFNG, they are not allowed to pay dividend for NUF.




That's right, but that's not as strong as it sounds.   With most income securities, the dividend on the stock stops *until the preferred or income security has all of its dividends paid in arrears in full*.   With NFNG, it says very clearly that the board can simply say "We don't feel like paying you anything this time." and they owe you nothing.   Next six months and everything is reset like nothing happened.    As an investor, what did I get in exchange for that?   I cap my upside to $1, and I have a very similar risk to the primary shareholders for dividends.



cheeyeen said:


> If NUF goes bankrupt, again NFNG is ranked higher than ordinary NUF shareholders.




Given the debt level, that doesn't give me any comfort.   NFNG probably sees no recovery in an Administration.



cheeyeen said:


> As I said, I use NFNG to bet that the Chinese might come back for an offer (I got it just after the profit downgrade).  Illiquid, yes.. protection for principal and interest payment, definitely better than the ordinary shares.  Unless you are talking about it is risky to bet on the takeover offer.. or you think NUF is not a good company.




As a short-term one to 12 month trading play on a Chinese takeover of Nufarm, it's interesting.


----------



## cheeyeen (30 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> Remember I am not Australian, so BBSW isn't a familiar entity to me.
> 
> My question is where can I go to see a time graph of BBSW?




You can probably do a google search to find out. I don't have one myself.  I roughly know what the rate is following the Australia Reserve Bank cash rate.



persistentone said:


> If the dividend paid swings wildly based on BBSW, don't you think NFNG is going to reflect those swings as well?    BBSW was above 7% for a while and now comes down to around 3%.   That's a major change in the dividend paid.   Why shouldn't the security reflect that?




It does.  Since it is an interest rate security, the interest rate will have an effect on its price.  So does the credit rating, date to maturity, whether it is secured or in-secured etc.



persistentone said:


> I agree credit rating affects price too, but typically those are gradual changes.   Going from a 7% to 3% change on BBSW in a few months is huge.




I probably won't argue with you about the magnitude of change in Cash Rate to the price of a floating rate security.  But you can take a look at a credit rating downgrade by a rating agency to a corporate note/bond and see what is the effect of that on the price of that bond/note.



persistentone said:


> As for price, in the last year the NUF stock went from $17 to $9, about 45% down.   In a similar timeframe NFNG was down 35%, so a little safer yes but not much, and you do cap your upside.




You have taken this out of context.  I said I bought this as a bet on the Chinese takeover after the profit downgrade.  When I evaluating the trade, price of NUF is at 10.50, and NFNG at 75AUD.  There were two analysts report downgrading NUF's result even more than the management, saying there are more downsides due to the price of materials (which turn out to be correct).  
If a takeover offer comes, I don't think they will go higher than 15AUD (the last offer was 17AUD) so it could be a 43% gain.  For NFNG the gain would be 25AUD/75AUD = 33.3% gain.  So in my analysis, the upside is not much more.  I don't know whether the takeover offer will come or not, or at what price (remember it is a bet).  

For the downside, again I don't know how far the share price can go down if the offer didn't come, and there is another profit downgrade. I do notice that the market is not very forgiving for two subsequent profit downgrades.  For NFNG, as long as NUF is profitable (even there is profit downgrade, it is still making a profit) then it most likely will pay distribution.  Checking the dividends history of NUF, it has been paying dividends for the last 8-9 years.  So I think NFNG's distribution is not that much at risk.  For the yield, NFNG is yielding around 6.5% at price of 75AUD.  And the sentiment is that interest rate is not going any lower (or at most 0.25% lower).  There is even talks that it is going to rise so the yield can only be improved.  So I figure the downside should be limited (unless the company is being downgraded, which then I doubt the price of NUF would do much better than NFNG).



persistentone said:


> I'm really not clear at this point on what the "reset" option entails.   In the case of reset do they still have to markup by 1.9%?   Since as you point out they are in effect resetting the base rate every six months anyway, why even have a "reset" option?    It sounds like a trick.




Again, "Reset" in the prospectus is referring to the *margin*.  They don't control the BBSW so they can't "reset" the base rate.



persistentone said:


> They are apparently paying an unfranked dividend and not interest.   I was saying it is more risky than a *bond*.    The problem is you have the reward profile of a bond (gain capped at $1) but the risk profile of a stock (unlimited loss, no accumulation of interest, perpetual risk of capital never being returned, and very poor credit hierarchy protections).




Unlimited loss??  I wouldn't loss more than what I put in.  Would there be any different if I hold NUF when it goes bankrupt?  Don't take this out of context.. I am using this to bet on takeover offer for NUF. 



persistentone said:


> That's right, but that's not as strong as it sounds.   With most income securities, the dividend on the stock stops *until the preferred or income security has all of its dividends paid in arrears in full*.   With NFNG, it says very clearly that the board can simply say "We don't feel like paying you anything this time." and they owe you nothing.   Next six months and everything is reset like nothing happened.    As an investor, what did I get in exchange for that?   I cap my upside to $1, and I have a very similar risk to the primary shareholders for dividends.




Again, base on my view.  The upside is 33% vs 43%. (I could be totally wrong and there could be 3-4 people coming and bid it to over 20AUD.  But the problem is, no one know.. Otherwise I don't even need to evaluate).  So doesn't matter where the price cap is, the return should be evaluate on % return, not in dollar terms.  They have to stop paying NUF holder before the stop paying NFNG.  So in a bad scenario, I would be better off with NFNG than NUF.  It is a balance of risk and reward approach that I am taking



persistentone said:


> Given the debt level, that doesn't give me any comfort.   NFNG probably sees no recovery in an Administration.
> 
> As a short-term one to 12 month trading play on a Chinese takeover of Nufarm, it's interesting.




So it has negative equity?  I think the Chinese will take them out if they are in big trouble.  That's why the bet..


----------



## persistentone (30 July 2009)

I understand the reasons to possibly prefer NFNG to NUF as a short term trade on the Sinochem takeover.   I was simply pointing out as a stand alone investment to hold for a longer time period it wasn't thrilling me.


----------



## persistentone (31 July 2009)

A very small and poorly detailed graph of the 90 day BBSW can be found in the bottom left hand corner of this site:

https://www.termdeposit.com/

You will notice that the crash in BBSW rates from September through December 2008 seems to very closely match the movement of NFNG in this period. What is interesting to me is why NFNG started to recover in April from low 60s to low 70s.

The reaction of NFNG to the Sinochem announcements is clear.


----------



## cheeyeen (31 July 2009)

persistentone said:


> A very small and poorly detailed graph of the 90 day BBSW can be found in the bottom left hand corner of this site:
> 
> https://www.termdeposit.com/
> 
> ...




The market sentiment has improved.  People are willing to lend the money at a lower risk premium for interest securities.  Check the price for a few of the hybrids and u should see similar pattern.  ORIPB, RHCPA, SEVPC etc.


----------



## persistentone (30 September 2009)

Did anyone notice this obscure press article when the Nufarm deal was announced:

"SYDNEY, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Australian farm chemicals group Nufarm Ltd (NUF.AX), subject to $2.5 billion takeover offer from Sinochem, said it has not spoken to any counter bidders about the takeover, the company told an analyst briefing on Monday."

What an odd thing to say.    Notice the announcement does NOT say that no other bids were received.   Rather, what the announcement appears to suggest but not say explicitly is that other bids *were* received, but that they were never considered because of the exclusivity arrangement.   

What do others make of this?


----------



## oldblue (30 September 2009)

I think the "agreement" allows NUF to receive other approaches, just not to solicit them.

I'd be surprised if anyone else overbids Sinochem but it looks like we'll have a long wait before this is finalised, one way or another.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=03BC28D7-1871-E587-E151A5D923ABB92A


----------



## persistentone (30 September 2009)

oldblue said:


> I think the "agreement" allows NUF to receive other approaches, just not to solicit them.
> 
> I'd be surprised if anyone else overbids Sinochem but it looks like we'll have a long wait before this is finalised, one way or another.




The point is the press release seems to suggest another bid WAS received already, and they simply did not reply to it.




> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=03BC28D7-1871-E587-E151A5D923ABB92A




If the stock trades to $11, and the deal closes at $13 in March, that is a 30%+ return on investment.     I would have to think about piling in more money if it trades down to that level.


----------



## skc (30 September 2009)

persistentone said:


> Did anyone notice this obscure press article when the Nufarm deal was announced:
> 
> "SYDNEY, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Australian farm chemicals group Nufarm Ltd (NUF.AX), subject to $2.5 billion takeover offer from Sinochem, *said it has not spoken to any counter bidders about the takeover*, the company told an analyst briefing on Monday."
> 
> ...




You have to know the context of that statement. On it's own it meant nothing to me. To me the way the response was phrased is simply to hold their cards close - it doesn't want to deny or acknowledge the existence of any counter bidders. And if anything that actually meant there hasn't been any counter bidders.

In takeover situations, don't companies have obligation to inform shareholders if a counter bid emerges? And as pointed out already, agreement is not exclusive.


----------



## persistentone (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> You have to know the context of that statement. On it's own it meant nothing to me. To me the way the response was phrased is simply to hold their cards close - it doesn't want to deny or acknowledge the existence of any counter bidders. And if anything that actually meant there hasn't been any counter bidders.




Then it is just a poorly worded release.   A clear communication would be "No other bid has been received."   Trying to create an ambiguity about an important detail for which they would be obligated to release information to both the market and Sinochem only creates confusion.    A release that says "No responses to any possible bids received" looks just bizarre.



> In takeover situations, don't companies have obligation to inform shareholders if a counter bid emerges? And as pointed out already, agreement is not exclusive.




The Heads of Agreement term sheet uses the word "Exclusive" throughout.   I could not find "non-exclusive" anywhere except in reference to an obscure legal jurisdiction point.


----------



## skc (30 September 2009)

persistentone said:


> The Heads of Agreement term sheet uses the word "Exclusive" throughout.   I could not find "non-exclusive" anywhere except in reference to an obscure legal jurisdiction point.




My bad choice of word... definitely exclusive through the exclusivity period. But non-binding and doesn't stop others having a tilt.

From a trading point of view... it's not a bad risk reward at current prices. Upside target $13.15 (including 15c dividend I believe) i.e. $1.8, downside risk probably ~$10 i.e. $1.35. Further potential from counter bids, but downside risk from FIRB and failed due diligence. Positive expectancy if one thinks about it as a 50/50...

Discl. I hold


----------



## oldblue (22 January 2010)

A lot of water under the bridge since the last post!

Sumitoto board has approved the stategic investment in Nufarm. To buy 20% of existing shares at $14. Cash issue at $14 to follow, subject to approval by NUF shareholders.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...d-clears-nufarm-investment-20100122-mq9w.html


----------



## persistentone (22 January 2010)

oldblue said:


> A lot of water under the bridge since the last post!
> 
> Sumitoto board has approved the stategic investment in Nufarm. To buy 20% of existing shares at $14. Cash issue at $14 to follow, subject to approval by NUF shareholders.
> 
> http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...d-clears-nufarm-investment-20100122-mq9w.html




Does anyone here know the terms of the tender offer, and will they make that available to US investors?   Usually they do not.


----------



## oldblue (22 January 2010)

The original announcement appeared to exclude US holders.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091229/pdf/31mzgd82k33j53.pdf


----------



## oldblue (23 January 2010)

oldblue said:


> A lot of water under the bridge since the last post!
> 
> Sumitoto board has approved the stategic investment in Nufarm. To buy 20% of existing shares at $14. Cash issue at $14 to follow, subject to approval by NUF shareholders.
> 
> http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...d-clears-nufarm-investment-20100122-mq9w.html




Correction.

The price for the cash issue has yet to be set. One would expect that it would be at a discount to $14!


----------



## Taltan (29 March 2010)

So what's going on here??? Sumitoto are buying for $14 yet Mr Market does not think its worth $8.70 anymore. I understand results were dissappointing but stock is still falling a month later. $14 compared to $8.70 is a massive divergence for control never mind 20%


----------



## oldblue (30 March 2010)

Taltan said:


> So what's going on here??? Sumitoto are buying for $14 yet Mr Market does not think its worth $8.70 anymore. I understand results were dissappointing but stock is still falling a month later. $14 compared to $8.70 is a massive divergence for control never mind 20%




The $14 is now irrelevant. That price was set several months ago and Sumitomo are committed to buying 20% of the company at that price.

Attention now focuses on the upcoming cash issue and clearly investors aren't prepared to overpay given the current poor profitability of the company. Is that a cyclical problem? Time will tell!


----------



## oldblue (30 March 2010)

And today's announcement predicting a full year's profit of (only) $80m to $100m won't have helped!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/nufarm-predicts-profit-up-to-100m-20100329-r8bl.html


----------



## jancha (7 April 2010)

Why would Hartley have a recommended buy on NUF when the markets showing otherwise and any thoughts from chartist regarding NUF?


----------



## oldblue (7 April 2010)

jancha said:


> Why would Hartley have a recommended buy on NUF when the markets showing otherwise and any thoughts from chartist regarding NUF?




Probably because they consider it undervalued at the current shareprice compared to their own valuation.

On the other hand, the market is still waiting to see the terms and price of the forthcoming cash issue and reluctant to bid up the SP meanwhile.


----------



## So_Cynical (7 April 2010)

jancha said:


> Why would Hartley have a recommended buy on NUF when the markets showing otherwise and any thoughts from chartist regarding NUF?




Perhaps there actually prepared to back there judgement instead of playing it safe and going with the crowd...jancha ill post a 3 year chart so we can see what the market has thought of NUF week by week over the last 3 years...now can you please tell me at what level do you think the market was right and what level you would buy at???  $8.30 or closer to 18? 

Very interested to read your reply
~


----------



## footlose (7 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> Of course this didn't come entirely out of the blue - the Chinese had tried before and to a lot of investors it was only a matter of when they would try again.
> A combination of a depressed market, a profit downgrade from NUF and subsequent drop in the SP were all the ingredients needed to re-ignite a bid.
> I bought a few today because I reckon NUF is a well run company with a good business and prospects. At $10-$11 I'll be happy to hold, whether or not this situation develops into an actual offer.



The Chinese usualy bargain for the best price.I hope we retain a well placed Aussie based company.Due to the record rainfall this year I am sure NUF will have a bumper year,and a good recovery.The local farmers arround here think so.


----------



## jancha (8 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Perhaps there actually prepared to back there judgement instead of playing it safe and going with the crowd...jancha ill post a 3 year chart so we can see what the market has thought of NUF week by week over the last 3 years...now can you please tell me at what level do you think the market was right and what level you would buy at???  $8.30 or closer to 18?
> 
> Very interested to read your reply
> ~




So-Cynical thanks for the chart but in all honesty im not a chart reader & for you to ask me from the chart at what level the market was correct & at what level i would buy in at is beyond me.
However the past year the volume in trading is considerably higher as the previous two years and it's currently at it's lowest resistance level but as far as what level the market is correct is at what current sp it is at the time. The markets never wrong. Yes
We just hope that when we buy in it's at a point when the sp heads north. 
As i said before im no chartist but at some point NUF will have to go lower or higher in sp so back to you with your chart & to my original question how would a chartist read the chart?


----------



## jancha (12 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> Probably because they consider it undervalued at the current shareprice compared to their own valuation.
> 
> On the other hand, the market is still waiting to see the terms and price of the forthcoming cash issue and reluctant to bid up the SP meanwhile.




Must Huntley's must think it's a real bargin in that case
Currently $7.96 and a 3.6% drop in sp.


----------



## jancha (13 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Perhaps there actually prepared to back there judgement instead of playing it safe and going with the crowd...jancha ill post a 3 year chart so we can see what the market has thought of NUF week by week over the last 3 years...now can you please tell me at what level do you think the market was right and what level you would buy at???  $8.30 or closer to 18?
> 
> Very interested to read your reply
> ~




SoCynical
Nuf is enough on this judging by the large sells & the current sp.
Huntleys recommendation for a buy on this has me wondering.
As for the 3 year chart you posted last week i cant see any relevance in studying it the way the market's hammering it down to $7.54.
Have noticed tho that the volume in buyers is picking up.


----------



## oldblue (13 April 2010)

As far as I can tell Huntleys are basically value investors. They do their own analysis of a stock and decide whether the market is undervaluing ( a Buy) or over-valuing ( a Sell) with degrees such as Accumulate, Hold, Reduce between these extremes.

Others prefer to invest on TA and for them NUF is a no-no at present.

Personally, I reckon there's a fair bit of pressure being exerted to make sure that management isn't tempted to put some fancy over-price on the new issue.


----------



## ROE (13 April 2010)

On valuation look pretty good .... Chinese made the right move to walk 
I wouldnt pay $12 or $11 a pop but at this price it's a different story

a couple things I dont like about NUF but the risk and reward ratio stack up so I break a few of my rules and take on one of Lou Simpson and see if it will cost me or reward me 

sold a 2 stocks today including DMP in preparation for the onslaught....


----------



## JTLP (13 April 2010)

Kinda breaking new ground here on the 5 year chart. It did dip down to 7.30 back in early December '08 but still...looks kinda iffy. Steady downtrend since Nov '09 and as said earlier...on a T/A perspective oldblue has it hit straight on the head...big no no.

Oh well I don't know enough about the story but was waiting for an entry...the wait will continue...


----------



## So_Cynical (13 April 2010)

jancha said:


> SoCynical
> Nuf is enough on this judging by the large sells & the current sp.
> Huntleys recommendation for a buy on this has me wondering.
> As for the 3 year chart you posted last week i cant see any relevance in studying it the way the market's hammering it down to $7.54.
> Have noticed tho that the volume in buyers is picking up.




The Market does whatever it does, i don't like over analysing why anyone is selling or buying because it make no sense to me...stocks getting hammered always means that they fall past the point of sensible value and approach the ridiculous.

NUF is now approaching the ridiculous IMO...all over sold stocks bottom with a reasonably sharp V and i would expect that with NUF, even in a rallying, toppish bear market....I'm watching with interest but must admit that my buying attention is elsewhere.



jancha said:


> The markets never wrong. Yes



Correct, however the markets only right one second at a time...so any trader/investor with time on there side has a clear advantage.


----------



## bloomy88 (20 April 2010)

$250 million equity raising announced today. Can buy 1 new NUF share for every 5 you hold for $5.75.

Record date is this Friday. Does this mean that you already have to hold NUF shares to be entitled to the capital raising? 

Great prospects for this company imo as farmers will have to continue to look for more efficient ways to farm with less water...


----------



## JTLP (20 April 2010)

That's a pretty deep discount. I suspect the sustained pressure from last week was people in the know?

Ahh well I'll wait for a dump of the shares and try and pick some up cheap!


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## ROE (20 April 2010)

bloomy88 said:


> $250 million equity raising announced today. Can buy 1 new NUF share for every 5 you hold for $5.75.
> 
> Record date is this Friday. Does this mean that you already have to hold NUF shares to be entitled to the capital raising?
> 
> Great prospects for this company imo as farmers will have to continue to look for more efficient ways to farm with less water...




Yeah you have to have bought the share Monday to qualify
It stays in trading halt till Friday.

I bought up last week at 5 years low  nothing cause a perfect storm
like earning downgrade and cut dividend pretty much like Flight Centre not long ago


----------



## JTLP (22 April 2010)

Will be interested to see what price this will open up at when trading resumes/when the rights are issued. As I said earlier it's a pretty deep discount and I'm hoping to pick this up somewhere in the low to mid 6's. Do holders have any inclination as to what the rights issue will do to the price?


----------



## ROE (22 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> Will be interested to see what price this will open up at when trading resumes/when the rights are issued. As I said earlier it's a pretty deep discount and I'm hoping to pick this up somewhere in the low to mid 6's. Do holders have any inclination as to what the rights issue will do to the price?




(5 x 7.75 + 1 x 5.75) / 6 = $7.41 

if you didnt pick up for $7.35 last week I doubt you can get any lower
but you never know with the market...it does mis-price sometimes and
buy up and buy big when it does...


----------



## oldblue (22 April 2010)

Yes, the theoretical rights price is $1.66 but this is highly "theoretical" given that the cum rights price was factoring in a known issue but at an unknown ratio and price.

Personally, I could be interested if the rights trade much below $1.66 or the heads below $7.41.


----------



## JTLP (22 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> Yes, the theoretical rights price is $1.66 but this is highly "theoretical" given that the cum rights price was factoring in a known issue but at an unknown ratio and price.
> 
> Personally, I could be interested if the rights trade much below $1.66 or the heads below $7.41.




Thanks ROE and oldblue. Are the rights tradeable though? And when do they hit the market if so?

In saying I'm hoping for under 7.41...you may be right ROE...the market pushed it right down before this cap raising...so it might be difficult to get a sniff. 

Still...I'm hoping people are big profit takers and let me on board =p


----------



## oldblue (23 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> Thanks ROE and oldblue. Are the rights tradeable though? And when do they hit the market if so?
> 
> In saying I'm hoping for under 7.41...you may be right ROE...the market pushed it right down before this cap raising...so it might be difficult to get a sniff.
> 
> Still...I'm hoping people are big profit takers and let me on board =p




I've clarified with the NUF issue "hotline" that there *won't* be any rights trading. Shares not taken up will be deemed to be effectively renounced and offered in a Retail Bookbuild after the issue closes. Net proceeds will be distributed to rights holders.

It will be interesting to see where the ex issue shares open when trading recommences. Anything under $7.41 would get my further interest!


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## So_Cynical (23 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> Still...I'm hoping people are big profit takers and let me on board =p




So did you get in?...or you gona wait for $6 something? opened at 7.29 and fell to its close at 7.12 which was a surprise to me as i thought the issue price would be a new floor....knife catching can be profitable and dangerous and prob best suited to a staged entry IMO.


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## JTLP (24 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> So did you get in?...or you gona wait for $6 something? opened at 7.29 and fell to its close at 7.12 which was a surprise to me as i thought the issue price would be a new floor....knife catching can be profitable and dangerous and prob best suited to a staged entry IMO.




To be honest I thought about buying on the bell but it was too close to the daily low for me. I think there will be a bit of an overhang with the rights issue and don't expect anything major soon. Also was this issue only
making up half of the 250 mil? If so...what about the rest?

What about yourself? In/out? Rights issue taken? What about others?


----------



## So_Cynical (24 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> What about yourself? In/out? Rights issue taken? What about others?




As far as im concerned, the dividend yield isn't enough for me and i cant see much upside, and in general don't like the business, also have no idea where the bottom is or could be :dunno:...all my funds are other wise engaged anyway as one of my core holdings is having a SPP and i plan to take as many as i can get.

Whatever you and others decide to do...good luck.


----------



## oldblue (24 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> So did you get in?...or you gona wait for $6 something? opened at 7.29 and fell to its close at 7.12 which was a surprise to me as i thought the issue price would be a new floor....knife catching can be profitable and dangerous and prob best suited to a staged entry IMO.




The issue price is $5.75 so that could yet become the new floor, although I don't think so!

The theoretical ex issue price was $7.41 but that was even more theoretical than is usually the case, given the circumstances of a long previously announced issue but at an unknown ratio and an unknown price!

I'll be taking up my entitlement at $5.75 but will wait for some strength in the SP before deciding whether or not to buy more.


----------



## oldblue (24 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> To be honest I thought about buying on the bell but it was too close to the daily low for me. I think there will be a bit of an overhang with the rights issue and don't expect anything major soon. Also was this issue only
> making up half of the 250 mil? If so...what about the rest?
> 
> What about yourself? In/out? Rights issue taken? What about others?




These "accelerated renounceable entitlement" issues seem to be the way they do things these days. Institutional holders first, then retail holders later. The institutional rights not taken up are offered in a bookbuild before the retail offer opens. The idea seems to be to get the issue placed and done with in short order!

See NUF's announcement of 20 April for the full details and dates.


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## So_Cynical (24 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> The issue price is $5.75 so that could yet become the new floor, although I don't think so!
> 
> The theoretical ex issue price was $7.41 but that was even more theoretical than is usually the case, given the circumstances of a long previously announced issue but at an unknown ratio and an unknown price!
> 
> I'll be taking up my entitlement at $5.75 but will wait for some strength in the SP before deciding whether or not to buy more.




lol shows you how much attention ive been paying...i thought the issue was at 7.50...so we have a long way to go to get down that low ($5.75) maybe it will turn out to be one of those super easy money opportunity's, it certainly looks like easy money at the moment.


----------



## JTLP (24 April 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> lol shows you how much attention ive been paying...i thought the issue was at 7.50...so we have a long way to go to get down that low ($5.75) maybe it will turn out to be one of those super easy money opportunity's, it certainly looks like easy money at the moment.




So are you expecting NUF to buck the trend or to continue lower? I think the rights will have an overhang effect and really do see the $6 price range coming into play. Don't know about $5.75 though...

I would attempt to get on these historic lows only when I'm happy with a trend. Missing a few cents here and there in this one due to uncertainty/profit takers isn't going to fuss me.


----------



## oldblue (26 April 2010)

NUF announced on Friday that the institutional bookbuild cleared the stock not taken up at $7.40. Doesn't look like $6.00 any time soon!


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## JTLP (26 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> NUF announced on Friday that the institutional bookbuild cleared the stock not taken up at $7.40. Doesn't look like $6.00 any time soon!




Haha if it got to $6.00 flat I'd be very happy to snare a few. My aim for the 6's is both a strategic and mindset one. Strategy in that I like the thought of an equity placement providing a floor and institutions taking up a heap as well. 

Mindset in that if it touched the 6's i'd be happy to say I bought in there and trusted my instinct/valuation/startegy etc. I'm still betting on a bit of an overhang before decent gains but still...always time to get in!


----------



## JTLP (30 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> Haha if it got to $6.00 flat I'd be very happy to snare a few. My aim for the 6's is both a strategic and mindset one. Strategy in that I like the thought of an equity placement providing a floor and institutions taking up a heap as well.
> 
> Mindset in that if it touched the 6's i'd be happy to say I bought in there and trusted my instinct/valuation/startegy etc. I'm still betting on a bit of an overhang before decent gains but still...always time to get in!




So far i've been dead wrong and most likely expect it to stay that way. NUF finished on 7.64 today...basically 7-8% off the low of 7.08. Does anybody know when the shares hit accounts? Perhaps I'd wait for that 

Still time still time...


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## oldblue (1 May 2010)

JTLP said:


> So far i've been dead wrong and most likely expect it to stay that way. NUF finished on 7.64 today...basically 7-8% off the low of 7.08. Does anybody know when the shares hit accounts? Perhaps I'd wait for that
> 
> Still time still time...




Yes, the clearance of the institutional overhang at $7.40 appears to have put a floor under the price.

As it was an entitlement issue it means that the instos who took them up, or most of them at least, don't have to wait for allotment if they want to sell some NUF. ( It was a 1 for 5 issue.) As they can sell "old" shares now  I wouldn't expect that to be an issue.

But see NUF's announcement of 20 April for all relevant dates.


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## JTLP (7 May 2010)

It would appear my prediction of NUF in the 6's came to fruition; ableit not the way I predicted. However I pulled my buy order due to the market meltdown and now seem to have missed it completely. Here's hoping for more bad news from the Euro Zone or Wall st and I'll have a shot on Monday. Unlikely now =(


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## So_Cynical (7 May 2010)

JTLP said:


> It would appear my prediction of NUF in the 6's came to fruition; ableit not the way I predicted. However I pulled my buy order due to the market meltdown and now seem to have missed it completely. Here's hoping for more bad news from the Euro Zone or Wall st and I'll have a shot on Monday. Unlikely now =(




LOL predicted $6 something and didn't buy it  the thing with meltdowns is ya just never know when and how far, and it mostly feels better to just wait and see etc...personally i put every cent i had into the market today.

The other thing about a meltdown is that there's dozens of stocks that look to be bargains so your spoilt for choice, and the stocks like NUF tend to fall off the radar or at least don't look as attractive.


----------



## JTLP (7 May 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> LOL predicted $6 something and didn't buy it  the thing with meltdowns is ya just never know when and how far, and it mostly feels better to just wait and see etc...personally i put every cent i had into the market today.
> 
> The other thing about a meltdown is that there's dozens of stocks that look to be bargains so your spoilt for choice, and the stocks like NUF tend to fall off the radar or at least don't look as attractive.




I know right... Gotta have the courage to back my convictions. Was today the last onslaught? Who knows? US Job Data tonight...could swing either way. Why did you pump everything in today? Hopefully this and a few others are off peoples radars a little longer...


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## So_Cynical (8 May 2010)

JTLP said:


> I know right... Gotta have the courage to back my convictions. Was today the last onslaught? Who knows? US Job Data tonight...could swing either way. Why did you pump everything in today? Hopefully this and a few others are off peoples radars a little longer...




Long story as to why today and not yesterday, the day before etc, have to say that i usually buy in too early so time will tell if ive done it again. :dunno:

The bottom line is that you do have to back yourself sometimes, just believe in your judgement and do it, see XYZ or what ever at a stupid price and just put the crap to one side and buy it....ive seen 4 "bottoms" in the last 2 years and brought all of them and done well.


----------



## JTLP (11 May 2010)

So NUF is once again in my target range. The selling seems to be off screen and quite relentless so perhaps I'll wait a little longer. Thought it cost me last time. 

Anywhoo, what is the pressure a result of? Market slowdowns? Profit taking?


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## oldblue (11 May 2010)

Probably retail holders selling to take up the issue at $5.75 without increasing overall exposure to NUF.

Issue closes this Friday.


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## JTLP (11 May 2010)

oldblue said:


> Probably retail holders selling to take up the issue at $5.75 without increasing overall exposure to NUF.
> 
> Issue closes this Friday.




Thanks for that info.

I've held out (again!) from buying after a really poor finish at the end of the day. Markets also looking toppy won't help anybody's cause.

Long term downtrend still in place...thought the cap raising would have provided a bit of a floor...

Watching...waiting...probably won't pull the trigger :


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## So_Cynical (11 May 2010)

JTLP said:


> Thanks for that info.
> 
> I've held out (again!) from buying after a really poor finish at the end of the day. Markets also looking toppy won't help anybody's cause.
> 
> ...




Markets looking toppy!!!!!!!! seriously markets looking toppy you say. 

Fridays low for NUF was 6.62 and today's was 6.75..the SP may or may not get any closer to 5.75...at some point your gona have to just put a price on it your happy to pay or walk away and quite possibly watch NUF rally away from you.

Catching bottom can become a bit of a game where you wait to long...as i did a few times at "the" bottom....a good alternative is a 2 stage entry, even then with 2 goes at it, you wont get it 100% right...still what ever you do you need to be at ease with yourself and happy with your actions.

GL JTLP


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## JTLP (11 May 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Markets looking toppy!!!!!!!! seriously markets looking toppy you say.
> 
> Fridays low for NUF was 6.62 and today's was 6.75..the SP may or may not get any closer to 5.75...at some point your gona have to just put a price on it your happy to pay or walk away and quite possibly watch NUF rally away from you.
> 
> ...




Haha i'm a little B1tch aren't I.

I mean toppy for the current futures post: Euro bailout. I'm thinking a couple more points down but eh!

Thanks for the reinforcement. I know I have to do something and stop whinging...I just wanna get it right. The 2 staged entry is a good idea...will look at putting that into place as well.

I'm just cautious as I'm moving my portfolio to more longer term things and want to get it right from the start...even if it is longer term.

Are you in this one?


----------



## oldblue (12 May 2010)

There's nothing wrong with waiting for the trend to turn up, IMO.

In fact, I wouldn't be buying NUF at present but then I also wouldn't expect to be able to buy at the bottom. It may be reasonable to expect some strength in the SP once the issue is out of the way but I'd wait for some confirmation first.

Disc: Holding NUF and took up issue at $5.75.


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## JTLP (12 May 2010)

Bit the bullet today. Was away from the comp on the open  but managed to get a little higher. Still largish volumes and 2 days to go before order forms can be in but i'm happy with this price for now.

What's with all the director notices at 7.07?


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## ROE (20 May 2010)

Wow what a week for NUF 

I went all in today with $5.94, all my available cash.

are we all happy comrade Rudd Super Tax and Greece create some awesome opportunities


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## jojoventure (8 June 2010)

I have been looking at NUF lately, 

but too me it doesnt seem like a buy yet . Not expensive now, but just fairly priced at $5.60 per share as I write. 

I ve been calculating its intrinsic value, and to me with a 4-5% annual growth this is what it should be priced.

Furthermore its downspiral of a trend does not seem like its going to reverse anytime soon.

Its historic PE ratio has been much larger then lately, and its earnings and profitability are bound to improve eventually, just not soon. 

I am waiting, and i think it will be a buy at less then $3.00.

Unless some giant crops start growing this year in both europe and the US of A , I think the price will keep declining yet.

This is what I think for the Long term.


----------



## oldblue (8 June 2010)

I'm interested in why you think NUF will be a BUY at $3.00 when you also think it's fairly priced at $5.60?

Do you see a general decline in share prices or is this something specific to NUF?

(I think the forum discourages us from giving price predictions without stating reasons).


----------



## jojoventure (9 June 2010)

Sorry Oldblue I didnt mean to make a prediction, I just wanted to get a general feeling on this stock as I am stuck between 2 minds with it.

Well I have been calculating its intrinsic value, using a one-stage DCF model (with 4-5% growth), and thats  what my calculations tell me(between $5-$7 per share). Has anybody else tried calculating its intrinsic value?

I think it would be a buy at half its current share price as I like shares to have little downside and a lot of upside space, and thats what I think would be the case with such a low share price. Clearly this is not a good scenario for current NUF shareholders; But at the moment I havent seen anything good in NUF and its businesses (apart for the aquisition of the GM seeds company, which could prove very useful in the LT).

I am looking for an excuse or a reason to buy this company.... I just cant find one yet


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## Julia (9 June 2010)

jojoventure said:


> I am looking for an excuse or a reason to buy this company(




Why?

There are more than 2000 companies trading on the ASX, many proven longtime performers.  Why are you trying to persuade yourself to buy something that's in such an abysmal downtrend?


----------



## oldblue (10 June 2010)

```
I am looking for an excuse or a reason to buy this company.... I just cant find one yet
```

No, I can't find a reason to buy NUF just now either - with its SP stuck in a downtrend.

No point in trying to guess the bottom. I have it on my watchlist for when the SP turns back up and starts to show some strength.


----------



## JTLP (23 June 2010)

Things are getting ugly for NUF.

There presentation released yesterday wasn't very inspiring...Elder's issuing a profit guidance in the negative (with such a positive outlook not long before that) and closing on a 5 year low of 5.50!

Agristocks out of favour?


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## JTLP (28 June 2010)

Nuf down 3.5% with no end in sight! This has been hit very hard recently. Management could really do with issuing some guidance. Feel sorry for holders since the glory days. 

How's everybody else feeling?


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## TheBull (28 June 2010)

Hit my stop sell last week and I got out. Got in at 6.1. Sector is looking ill....                                                                                .


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## jancha (15 July 2010)

JTLP said:


> Thanks for that info.
> 
> I've held out (again!) from buying after a really poor finish at the end of the day. Markets also looking toppy won't help anybody's cause.
> 
> ...




BANG Feel sorry for those that hung on to this one.
Longterm should be good at this price.


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## jancha (15 July 2010)

jancha said:


> BANG Feel sorry for those that hung on to this one.
> Longterm should be good at this price.




Standards & poors rating for NUF is bb down from bbb-.
$3.00? As someone said could be around the mark.


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## jojoventure (15 July 2010)

Looks like a big downward spiral to me.

Anybody knows how is Nufarm's capital position. Surely this ratings downgrade can cause more already serious problems as their cost of capital will be higher. I have not seen their Leverage ratio, but if it is high, it certainly doesnt look good in their short medium term..... Shaky times ahead.......


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## ROE (15 July 2010)

jojoventure said:


> Looks like a big downward spiral to me.
> 
> Anybody knows how is Nufarm's capital position. Surely this ratings downgrade can cause more already serious problems as their cost of capital will be higher. I have not seen their Leverage ratio, but if it is high, it certainly doesnt look good in their short medium term..... Shaky times ahead.......




Worse money I put in stock for a long time broke my rules and I pay the price  but nothing too damaging for me plenty of other make up for stupid decision

Their cash flow is declining and they have to take on another 100m
I  don't think it will kill them but look like it won't turn around for a while
Best hope for someone like me coming just under 6 is a take over in the next
12 months and walk away even or a little gain  

It does have assets others wants so hopefully someone low ball it soon
It has total 450m debt thanks to the down grade...was 350 after capital raising


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## Taltan (8 October 2010)

Does anyone know the ramifications, costs of joining the Slater & Gordon legal case against NUF. I it free to join on a success fee basis


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## noie (8 October 2010)

Performed a quick calculation on this one today (wanting a little more exposure to the sector than IPL) and came up with 2.79 which surprised me somewhat.

I am sill looking.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 May 2013)

Possible move here, out from base formation.


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## pixel (12 February 2014)

December Low has been broken, as has the recent falling trendline.
Even if this setup gives me as much (or little) gain as the last one did, an early entry will be worth it.





I bought today's break.


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## pixel (24 March 2014)

pixel said:


> December Low has been broken, as has the recent falling trendline.
> Even if this setup gives me as much (or little) gain as the last one did, an early entry will be worth it.
> 
> I bought today's break.



After selling at the initial resistance, I'm now back on board at $4.20, as a double top is no longer a threat.
Trailing stop lifted to break-even as a return below the breakout level would make it a false break.


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## skc (24 March 2014)

pixel said:


> After selling at the initial resistance, I'm now back on board at $4.20, as a double top is no longer a threat.
> Trailing stop lifted to break-even as a return below the breakout level would make it a false break.
> 
> View attachment 57340




NUF is reporting on 26 March... so be aware of potential gap either way.


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## pixel (24 March 2014)

skc said:


> NUF is reporting on 26 March... so be aware of potential gap either way.




Thanks mate 
I did notice the Intraday sell-off and was wondering if I should take early profit.
If the 4.25 bids get taken out, there's not much demand apparent down to $3.90 or maybe even lower.


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## pixel (25 March 2014)

pixel said:


> Thanks mate
> I did notice the Intraday sell-off and was wondering if I should take early profit.
> If the 4.25 bids get taken out, there's not much demand apparent down to $3.90 or maybe even lower.



... and a false break it turned out to be. 




Glad I heeded your warning (and my gut feeling  ) and took profit yesterday.


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## skc (25 March 2014)

pixel said:


> ... and a false break it turned out to be.
> 
> Glad I heeded your warning (and my gut feeling  ) and took profit yesterday.




Nice. It's not really a warning, just a heads up. 

NUF has a history of surprising the market so anyone holding, long or short, might be nervous and wish to go flat before the announcement. So the flow will govern the price action which is essentially unpredictable. You can't always maximise profit but you can always manage the risk.

For all I know they may announce a great outlook and see share price travel well North. Although I think it's unlikely as ORI updated the market on a relatively weak H1 on the chemicals front.


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## pixel (26 March 2014)

skc said:


> Nice. It's not really a warning, just a heads up.
> 
> For all I know they may announce a great outlook and see share price travel well North. Although I think it's unlikely as ORI updated the market on a relatively weak H1 on the chemicals front.



The report and presentation looked really great ... *BUT* ... the Market dumped them regardless.
At one stage, I thought they'd merely retest the breakout, even bought a few on spec. 
Stopped out immediately.


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## Garpal Gumnut (26 March 2014)

pixel said:


> The report and presentation looked really great ... *BUT* ... the Market dumped them regardless.
> At one stage, I thought they'd merely retest the breakout, even bought a few on spec.
> Stopped out immediately.
> 
> View attachment 57359




I agree Pixel and others. 

I watched them this morning and they are being dumped, with larger volume than for the past 8 weeks. I'm going to wait it out. 

gg


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## skc (26 March 2014)

pixel said:


> The report and presentation looked really great ... *BUT* ... the Market dumped them regardless.
> At one stage, I thought they'd merely retest the breakout, even bought a few on spec.
> Stopped out immediately.




There's nothing good about the report. The headline number was inline... a touch better than mid-point of analyst expectations. But the composition was weak. In particular, cashflow was a shocker with -$265m in negative operating cashflow.

I managed to catch a short at ~$4.20 and closed it at $4.05.


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## pixel (15 April 2014)

I received a new sequence of encouraging signals and decided to start a new position.
It pulled back to Fib 61.8% and has now another go at Primary resistance.




A break above $4.11 would give me a target at around $4.30.
PS: Low volume noted, but given this is a short week with many taking holidays, I'm not too worried about that.


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## pixel (7 May 2015)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01623216

16% ROFE may seem ambitious, but recent Market action suggests it's credible.


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## peter2 (8 September 2015)

Weekly trend UP (just) and daily trend down. Daily chart looks like forming a bullish H&S pattern with the neckline at 7.20. 

A price break-out of 7.20 (and close above) would interest me. SL could be placed below the daily HL or below the weekly pin bar ("hammer") two bars ago.


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## Trav. (17 July 2018)

I thought that I would run a scan on oversold stocks (RSI) a couple of days ago and this one came up, which has started turning. 

Closed at $8.22 and could look at $9 ?? as a first target.

327.7 M issued


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## notting (24 October 2018)

Round up is one of NUFs main products!!
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappen...agricultural-giant-monsanto-and-won-1.4783194


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## jjbinks (15 January 2019)

Came up on my scans
?re bound to gap in July ($7.50)
There seems to be a lot of volume at the 5.50-$6 price point. ?Accumulation


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## Gringotts Bank (16 January 2019)

jjbinks said:


> Came up on my scans
> ?re bound to gap in July ($7.50)
> There seems to be a lot of volume at the 5.50-$6 price point. ?Accumulation
> View attachment 91364​



yep, I reckon $7.30 target.


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## Miner (16 March 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> yep, I reckon $7.30 target.



Hello NUF followers and holders
I read some interesting research information on NUF about producing Canola to meet fish oild with high omega 3 and hence creating a great market for vegan (?) probably. It is still to be approved by FDA and there is a great IF and its major shareholders are holding breath.
Reading report on AFR, I was reviewing the previous postings on NUF and noticed a target was $7.30 expressed here.http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/cba/advancedprofile/today/NUF_advancedprofile.pdf

Since January 2019 and today the price has gone to actually $5.30.
Could @Gringotts Bank  and others please comment (not criticising but trying to understand your thoughts si
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
nce then and now. Do not hold and at this point just trying to look into it .
Regards


----------



## Miner (16 March 2019)

Miner said:


> Hello NUF followers and holders
> I read some interesting research information on NUF about producing Canola to meet fish oild with high omega 3 and hence creating a great market for vegan (?) probably. It is still to be approved by FDA and there is a great IF and its major shareholders are holding breath.
> Reading report on AFR, I was reviewing the previous postings on NUF and noticed a target was $7.30 expressed here.http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/cba/advancedprofile/today/NUF_advancedprofile.pdf
> 
> ...




Digging more I found this article from paid articles on Motley Fools back Au
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
g 2018 . It indicated NUF was affected from the Monsanto Chemicals and cancer from the chemicals. But since Aug 2018, the share price has gone up .


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## peter2 (20 March 2019)

Thought I'd found a possible stock at the bottom (for @greggles bottom thread) but a quick check on here shows me that @Miner is onto it. 

Price has fallen significantly in 2018 due to falling sales caused by the droughts in Eastern Aust and Europe. You don't buy fertilizer when there's no crops. Price looked like making a bottom in Oct18 but went lower following the general market down. The ASX market has rallied during Jan, Feb18 while NUF has not. 

The droughts will end sometime so revenue will increase at some point. During this period of falling revenues NUF has (according to the CEO) become a lean, mean business. Overall revenues have actually increased due to their markets throughout the world. The business is sound, just going through a tough time in a couple of their markets. 

IMO the bottom is in. There's been a significant increase in daily volume and some increased price volatility (large bars). I'm going to put this into my ASX40P research portfolio to keep an eye on it.


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## Miner (20 March 2019)

Good morning folks
NUF interim result - what is the predicted price in next few minutes on ASX ??With 8% increase in revenuew the Reported NPAT 214% less . Do not get it how my mental state will be if I am the sole owner of this company.
Honestly cancelled a buy order last night without guessing  any thing like this but who knows market behaviour.


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## Miner (20 March 2019)

Market accepted the result rather cooly with a modest decline. Has it already factored it then ??


----------



## Miner (20 March 2019)

Miner said:


> Market accepted the result rather cooly with a modest decline. Has it already factored it then ??
> View attachment 93100



Market at last woke up after a deep sleep and washed its mouth with this.
Hello good mates @peter2  and @greggles !  I suppose the bottom has now yet to reach. Just one day's report makes whole scenario upside down.


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## peter2 (20 March 2019)

I didn't know the half yearly report was due to be released the next day. Clearly the market didn't like it and price has dropped 17% to a new low. 

I now have to wait some time for the market to stabilise and form a reversal setup.


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## Miner (20 March 2019)

peter2 said:


> I didn't know the half yearly report was due to be released the next day. Clearly the market didn't like it and price has dropped 17% to a new low.
> 
> I now have to wait some time for the market to stabilise and form a reversal setup.



I am staying out of NUF like a Cyclone category 3. Insult to injury of poor profit position is contributed by the effect of Round Up /Monsanto Chemicals if there is any left over effect still to be captured.


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## peter2 (20 March 2019)

Yes, I'm not interested in NUF anymore. It's going to take some time to stabilise and form another base pattern. The business needs time for the droughts to ease, time to reduce inventories, time to see if there's any ramifications from the Monsanto case. reduce debt levels etc. 

Of course I could be wrong and price makes a dramatic "V" reversal. I need to wait for a low risk opportunity. V reversals are not low risk. Gambling is not low risk.


----------



## Miner (20 March 2019)

peter2 said:


> Yes, I'm not interested in NUF anymore. It's going to take some time to stabilise and form another base pattern. The business needs time for the droughts to ease, time to reduce inventories, time to see if there's any ramifications from the Monsanto case. reduce debt levels etc.
> 
> Of course I could be wrong and price makes a dramatic "V" reversal. I need to wait for a low risk opportunity. V reversals are not low risk. Gambling is not low risk.



Ha Ha @peter2 .
Gambling is low risk only when you buy 1 game at $1.10 (less than a Kit Kat's normal price) and try to win Power Ball Jack Pot. I am leaving on you to calculate the probability of success however


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## peter2 (22 April 2019)

Since my untimely call that the "bottom was in" on NUF the price has indeed made a "V" reversal to fill the gap. Price is still below the sloping resistance line and should need more time to form a solid base. 
I've put this back in the reversal watch list and waiting for a weekly HL pattern to form.


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## rnr (29 April 2019)

As I see it, prices over the last 4 bars have been consolidating, so where to from here?


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## Smurf1976 (29 May 2019)

peter2 said:


> Since my untimely call that the "bottom was in" on NUF the price has indeed made a "V" reversal to fill the gap. Price is still below the sloping resistance line and should need more time to form a solid base.



Just an update but price is back down to the March lows as of now.

Whether that's a double bottom in the making or whether it's got further to fall I won't claim to know as this isn't a stock I know much about.

Do not hold, it just came to my attention so thought others might be interested.


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## peter2 (29 May 2019)

I've had NUF in a reversal watch list waiting for a weekly HL. Now that price has gone below the last low it doesn't deserve to be watched any more. Clearly mgt have a tough job coping with the current trading conditions. 

Their recent presentation (Macquarie Australia Conference 2019) was optimistic and their next report will be interesting. 

This is one for the deep value investors, contrarians and magicians to start picking over. I'll wait for them to start investing.


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## Ann (9 June 2019)

Just a chart for Miner, $3.50 could be a floor but I wouldn't be taking any bets. It is still well under the falling overhead resistance line coming from June 2018. It may see a short term rally if it hits $3.50 in an effort to overcome the falling overhead but I would be astounded if it did overcome the falling overhead. However I could be wrong, it might surprise us all! 

This is a 10 year daily chart.


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## qldfrog (9 June 2019)

I think the glyphosate lawsuit potential is what is leading the fall.


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## qldfrog (10 June 2019)

https://www.mauriceblackburn.com.au/injury-law/occupational-diseases/roundup-investigation/


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## qldfrog (10 June 2019)

Shark are circling, in a world of antivaxx and GW propaganda, who cares about facts or science


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## Knobby22 (10 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Shark are circling, in a world of antivaxx and GW propaganda, who cares about facts or science



True.
Shouldn't the law require scientific evidence? Maybe we need to ensure juries to be scientifically literate.


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## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> True.
> Shouldn't the law require scientific evidence? Maybe we need to ensure juries to be scientifically literate.



Definitively,when you see billions compensation for a gardener having cancer.. seriously
This is public mob lynching, but you will see our usual leftist in full support, and in 20y a country overun with weeds
Lantana,blackberries etc should in an ideal world not be in Australia but they are....
And when the next bushfire is more destructive than ever, blame global warming
Vast areas in southern Europe are following this scenario even before glyphosate ban due to rural population collapse.


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## notting (11 June 2019)

I've used Round up for about 35 years.  I never bothered even taking the safety precautions,  meaning  no gloves and getting the concentrate, not the diluted stuff you get off the muppet shelves, on my bare hands!!
I have no problem with it! I know lots of other guys who are the same.  It's a total beat up and all started when Monsato developed Glysophate resistant seed.  Took out a patent which pretty much forced all farmers to have to use their seed.
Any way.  Eventually when this will all come out and is cleared NUF and BAYN will be awesome buys if they can get through the costly litigation BS and battles.






I actually come from a legal family and have a bit of lawyer instinct!!  At the very least I would pose this question to the claimants. "Was Glysophate the only chemical you were spraying regularly in your career!?" You can bet that anyone in industries that spray stuff like this will also be spraying pesticides, far more likely to effect a person's health than a herbicide.  I would then request that the claimant do the same amount of research on all the other chemicals he had exposed himself to regularly before assuming it was conclusive that it was Glysophate that was the cause of his health issues!!  There are lots of other good arguments too!!


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## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

Same, no problem with glyphosate use in my place, i limit but definitely do not forbid.
But no mosquito spray or baygon in my home
People are so deluded and brainwashed..


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## notting (11 June 2019)

Any one for a law suit?


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 July 2019)

NUF has gone up 7.38% today on not unreasonable volume  

I would ask why?

Someone pushing the price up to get out or insider information on good news?

gg


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## notting (3 July 2019)

This is the relevant news regarding Bayer - German company that bought Monsanto

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ndup-jury-verdict-court-hearing-idUSKCN1TX32C

Bayer is up 17% over the last 12 days after the massive fall because of this BS.

Keep this in mind -



> *Dr Joshua Mylne is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow appointed jointly to the School of Chemistry and Biochemistry and The ARC Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology at the University of Western Australia. *
> 
> "Frankly, I tire of this glyphosate(RoundUp) mania, which I hoped would stay in the USA – the silence as scientists wait for people to be sensible seems not to be working, so I will try to say something.
> 
> ...




Also be mindful that companies can be destroyed by endless law suits and the product will have a taint with super sensitive millennials who tend to be fanatically religious with conspiracy theories they discover on the net.
Also Monsanto was an absolute c--t of a company.  So there is a lot of hatred and want to kill out there on this one.
However I will be likely going in pretty hard on it! Unfortunately I missed the run today.


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## Miner (4 July 2019)

Ann said:


> Just a chart for Miner, $3.50 could be a floor but I wouldn't be taking any bets. It is still well under the falling overhead resistance line coming from June 2018. It may see a short term rally if it hits $3.50 in an effort to overcome the falling overhead but I would be astounded if it did overcome the falling overhead. However I could be wrong, it might surprise us all!
> 
> This is a 10 year daily chart.
> 
> View attachment 95302



Thanks @Ann
Sorry missed your posting with a special chart for me.


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2019)

I'm still not sure about NUF. 

I got badly stung by Ansell. ASX:ANN (lol Ann)

I bought it back in the 80's when I set up my SMSF thinking that condoms will always sell. I didn't  realise they also made dodgy heart valves. I've held on and am ahead but it's not a screamer, excuse the pun. 

I've looked at NUF many, many times. Never bought.

I wonder how much rust is under the iron. 

I'll wait and see. It's certainly at a good price. 

gg


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## notting (4 July 2019)

Another thing that hurt it was the drought that hit most of the south east of Australia leading for the year leading up to this winter.  When there are droughts you don't need to spray nearly as much and guys like NUF and Graincorp get hit pretty hard.
Some will want to confirm that we are not going to get a continuation of that before going in hard.
If climate change is becoming a thing these things could suffer more - 

We should be in the high 60s at this time of year.


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## Smurf1976 (5 July 2019)

Mixed thoughts on this one from me.

The issues others have mentioned as negatives.

"It will rain sometime" is the positive. Droughts always break eventually and it's not as though farming is likely to disappear as an industry.


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## notting (1 August 2019)

That's how you sell a downgrade!
Package it with preferential share offer!
Nufarm also advised that the Group’s financial performance had been impacted by adverse seasonal weather conditions and supply related impacts. The company expects to report underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of around $420 million for the 2019 financial year, subject to finalization of the accounts and audit. This compares to the previously advised range of $440 million to $470 million and consensus estimates of $436m. 

Nufarmhas undertaken the placement of $97.5million of preference securities (PS) to existing shareholder and strategic business partner, Sumitomo Chemical through a wholly owned subsidiary Nufarm.The transaction strengthens Nufarm's balance sheet as a result of the issue of an equity instrument and builds on the longstanding relationship between Sumitomo and Nufarm. Key terms of the security include: •Securities may be exchanged for Nufarm shares at Sumitomo’s electionany time after 24 months at an exchange price of AUD$5.85 per Nufarm share 
•Nufarm may purchase the preference securities from Sumitomoat any quarter following issue of the securities for the full principal amount outstanding at that time and the amount of any unpaid distributions
•A quarterly distribution at a fixed rate of 6% is payable to Sumitomo for the first 12 months and 10% thereafter.* YIKES 10% THERE AFTER*
In the even THAT Investment Pty Ltd does not pay the distribution on the PS Nufarm may not declare a dividend payment in respect of any of its ordinary shares or step-up securities until all undeclared distributions are declared and paid on the PS* F the rest of the shareholders.*
Market seems to like it as a short term risk buffer and is up 3.5%


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## bigdog (25 November 2019)

Very big fall in share price after ASX announcement today "Update on half year results"  (file uploaded)

*Nufarm accounting error.*
The share price is crashing lower on Monday after revealing a costly accounting error. While reconciling accounts with German customers for the 2019 calendar year, Nufarm identified additional sales rebate claims from customers.

This is expected to result in a $9 million impact to its first half EBITDA.

Nufarm has warned that trading conditions have been very difficult in FY 2020.







Don't hold

704


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## Trav. (23 December 2019)

NUF recovering well from the announcement in the previous post.

I got in late due to funds being tied up but original buy signal was on the 26/11 and to be honest I am not sure that I would have jumped in then as the resistance at $5.23 would have been my concern.

Anyway this trade is going well and a gap is still to be filled which was caused by the bad news. Once the gap is filled the next resistance I can see is around the $6.445 area so we will see what happens.

Also some good volume on Friday which is encouraging.


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## bigdog (17 January 2020)

ASX Ann today "*Update on first half earnings*" (uploaded)

In November Nufarm announced that its earnings for the first half ending January 31 would be significantly lower than the prior corresponding period.

With the end of the half now in sight, Nufarm believes it is able to provide a more accurate estimate for its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

According to the release, management expects its first half EBITDA to be in the range of $55 million to $65 million. This compares to its underlying EBITDA of $120.9 million a year earlier.

Share price down 11% at 11:49 am










331


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## Dona Ferentes (2 April 2020)

Walgett resident Enid Coupe said the rain had saved her family business from the brink of collapse. She and her husband, Hunter, have a spraying business and also run a small farm in Walgett in north-west NSW. Ms Coupe says the last quarter's rain came just in time, after almost a decade of extremely difficult conditions for the entire region.


> "..Because of the rain at the start of the year, we've done more spraying with our business in the last two months than in the last four years — it's a big difference." "The biggest issue for ag at the moment is how hard it can be to find weedkiller," Ms Coupe said. "*I don't think the suppliers of glyphosate in Australia anticipated that the entire eastern seaboard *would have a spray round and use up all the spray in the country." "Now _we've got places that need spraying and they can't get chemicals_, and supplies are hard to get as well.". .



https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...tural-businesses-bounce-back-to-life/12106688


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## Trav. (3 June 2020)

I entered NUF today but not to sure about the announcement that came after close today.

I don't trade on fundamentals but I do always have a look to see what is going on, and unfortunately this one can't be helped.

I'm sure the below isn't news to anyone as the COVID-19 has impacted many businesses so hopefully factored in and SP doesn't drop too much.

*Credit Suisse 2020 London Chemical and Agriculture Conference*

*The good*











*The bad*


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## Trav. (4 June 2020)

ouch, not a good open, hopefully will recover a bit throughout the day


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## Trav. (4 June 2020)

I ended up averaging down on this one as I believed it was oversold.

Bought @ $4.75 so eased the pain a bit, NUF closed at $4.86 so we will see how we go over the next few days.


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> I ended up averaging down on this one as I believed it was oversold.
> 
> Bought @ $4.75 so eased the pain a bit, NUF closed at $4.86 so we will see how we go over the next few days.



We have all been there with a stock. 

Trust it works out for you @Trav. 

gg


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## Trav. (4 June 2020)

Cheers @Garpal Gumnut I've been waiting for a loser to turn up but been lucky to get a few winners lately.

Hopefully a few people swoop in tomorrow to grab a bargain...


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> Cheers @Garpal Gumnut I've been waiting for a loser to turn up but been lucky to get a few winners lately.
> 
> Hopefully a few people swoop in tomorrow to grab a bargain...



Good on you. I can see why the chart appealed with the break up after 2 months of nothing much and re-test over the last week or so. 

I'm just looking at Gold and Health atm. as these curve balls will occur in these times. Stay well.

gg


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## Trav. (18 December 2020)

NUF turned up in my CAM Weekly scans and I have entered again....we will see if this is a wise move. 

up 4.8% today which was probably driven by the AGM speech and presentation released today

Trending down for the last year and hopefully it can break up........


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## Dona Ferentes (1 February 2022)

only a side hustle at present,

_Nufarm has entered into a 10-year sales contract with BP for a sustainable biofuels ingredient that can be used to help decarbonise difficult transport areas such as aviation.

The deal with Nufarm’s seed technology subsidiary, Nuseed, will see BP’s North American business buy Nuseed_* Carinata oil *_intending to process it or selling it into growing markets for the production of sustainable biofuels, initially in Europe and North America._



> *Carinata *_is a non-food crop that can be used to produce low-carbon biofuel feedstock that is independently certified and sustainable. It reduces emissions when its oil is used to replace fossil fuels, and removes atmospheric carbon, and restores soil carbon while it grows. The crop is listed by the International Civil Aviation Organisation as a sustainable aviation fuel feedstock._


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## Country Lad (12 March 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> only a side hustle at present,




.... but the market liked it anyway. Not calling it another break yet, I want to see $5.83 before I top up.


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