# Barney's Ballsups



## barney

Always wanted to start my own thread:

Anyway, not looking for feedback or anything egotistical, but if anyone wants to comment/join in, please feel free.

I am a self confessed Forex junkie.  I don't make much money out of it yet, but the biggy for me is, I seem to have stopped losing anywhere near as much as I used to

I will use this thread as a means to post some of my ideas/trades etc etc. so that I am under scrutiny if I stuff up. Hopefully that will keep me more accountable for my sometimes erroneous actions

At the moment I am looking for a spike high on the EUR/USD to 1.36958 to potentially Short it with gusto. I will also be looking for the Mirror spike on the USD/CHF down to 0.89790 to go Long.

I already have partial orders in at around those levels. I like to scale in/out so I can always take a bit of heat on the first one or two legs ............... Nothing quite as good as Hot Legs lol ...... (Ok, so my humour is corny; bad luck about that!)

Heading out ... will post a couple of charts later  ... Who knows; might even be filled by then


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## barney

OK  so the original plan on that particular trade idea is out the window till at least Wednesday, if at all!

The "short with Gusto" was correct but even if I had been home I wouldn't have picked the timing on that.


Couple of charts to show the original (now retrograde) plan.


Expect the EURUSD to make a low around 1.3520 tonight  .... If a slightly lower low tomorrow, then a grind back up on Wednesday  ...


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## barney

EURGBP weakening in a retrace after a down move

EURUSD still weak ... AUDUSD strengthening ...

SHORT EURAUD


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## barney

Stop Loss better than Break even ...free trade


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## barney

Just before being stopped out ... +2.3 pips  ...... Thought it might run harder to the down side  ... Wrong!


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## barney

Ballsup alert

EURCHF looked weaker than the AUDCHF  (correct)

EURUSD looked to be coming off a forming bottom ...... therefore Long AUDUSD  (logical)


Opened the AUDUSD chart and accidentally took the entry off the Hourly chart instead of the minute chart:homer:


Managed to get out of jail with a +1.9 pip close but very poor trade!


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## barney

Been trading pretty crap this week mainly by chasing short term trades (I am the worlds worst scalper), but got onto one of my favorites tonight.  I call it the "Flying Horse Tail" (Swing trade)

Chart of the USDCHF shows the pattern ... After a sustained down move we get a sharp move down, healthy retrace, then lower lows and a quicker bounce off the bottom.

The fact that the EURCHF was still showing weakness coupled with the almost 100% negative correlation on the USDCHF and the EURUSD means look for EURUSD shorts.

If the Horse Tail plays out it is usually worth a minimum of 0.5-1%     

Already over 30 pips in profit by the time I've pasted all this up  ...... Who said there's no money in Horses


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## barney

Close to a support level .... stop tightened twice.

Trade closed  ...... +45 pips

Current move 0.5% as anticipated .....  Should get a 50% retracement on that over the next day or so, then reassess.


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## barney

"Tail" is easier to see after the move.

When the move fails, it looks like this ...... :horse:


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## barney

Posting this up because it could be a classic ballsup

I am currently scaling into Shorts on the GBP/USD   .... The chart says the opposite, but my super duper time/range analyser says "Do it"  ....

I may well look like a dope, but without posting it I would be fooling myself, and the object is to make myself accountable  .... We'll see whether the super duper indicator is useful or not ...lol ...


Charts later ... bit busy at the moment


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## barney

Taking a lot of heat on this position ..Doh!!

Entries entries entries  .......   Pretty p!ssed off with myself  .... Had a bias based on past price action   ..... It started to fail but I ignored the signs and added added (one of my bad habits)  ....


The position is not to Uncle point yet, but irrespective of outcome, it has been **** trading 


Just for the record, the position was taken as a medium term swing trade ...... I was pretty much relying on some follow through with the EUR/GBP strength after yesterday and got aggressive .... bad timing .... again!

Funny thing is now I am fairly underwater, the price action is starting to "behave" the way I had expected ....  Timing entries is second only to money management!!

Been a good exercise putting some trades up  ... It puts a pressure on you don't get when you stuff up "alone"  ... recommend it to anyone trying to sort some issues out

Now, back to my **** entires  .... ps I will consider holding this over the weekend if it starts to behave, as my analysis is usually ok; just a day or so early.


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## barney

And therein lies the result  ..... (GBP/USD shorts)

I did hang on in the end and made a healthy amount of pips, but the bottom line is, my entries in this trade were crap and I could have taken about 500 degrees less heat :2evil:

My analysis that the GBP/USD was ready to drop was correct even though the T/A on the chart looked the opposite in the short term (my super duper time/range indicator ended up being pretty accurate) but my timing (or lack of) was poor  ......  Lots of room for improvement, but also some positives to take from the trade.

 Chart 1  ...... Even for a multi leg Swing trade it shows in hindsight just how bad some of my entries were  ..... (That's why I have to scale in so much

Chart 2  ........ My interpretation of the market was ok in the end ..... just bad timing as usual.


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## barney

Lol  .... as soon as I went back to the charts after posting the last post, the GBP/USD had reversed into a Flying Horse tail ... I would never have taken that on the way up cause the Pound is rolling off its long term highs and a Horse Tail is a bottoming formation .......  I did immediately take a punt on the high reversal considering I was biased to the short side on the Pound anyway and the .6% move up was against the short term trend   ..... Been a lot of .6% moves in both directions recently!


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## prawn_86

Good work Barney, some good education in here


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## barney

prawn_86 said:


> Good work Barney, some good education in here




 Yeah Cheers Prawn,   Its been a worthwhile exercise so far ..... Stuffing up in "public" certainly adds a new dimension to some of my dodgy trades   ......  Been a couple of good one though!

For the record, all trades posted are traded on a small live account, so any bad trades are costing me real cash


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## barney

Been crook for a few days so not much trading going on ...

Just picked up some weakness in the EUR/USD tonight but the EUR/AUD is still relatively stronger  

Taken a short on the AUD/USD to at least the daily lows before reassessing .......


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## barney

Going as planned  ... charts to follow  ... too hard to do it all while managing trades

Stop close to B/E  ... might get last weeks lows with some luck ... If it turns hard and fast will take some profit


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## barney

Initial trade

- - - Updated - - -

Going according to plan ....


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## barney

Starting to retrace, but the relative strength of the EUR v AUD v USD is still in favour of further down side on the AUD so holding for the moment ...


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## barney

Starting to wobble, but still expect one more push down  ... Stop to better than B/E, but will still be miffed it it bounces that hard before another drop


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## barney

Stopped pretty much right to the pip   ..... re entered cause it still fits the analysis


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## barney

Target hit  ... Trade closed  ...... Some positives and negatives to take out of all that  ..... 

Got the direction correct  ... Got the initial entry pretty good  ....... ran the stop too close .... Should have left the stop wider and added more on the retrace like I normally would but chickened out cause I was "showing"  the trade .....  makes you more accountable but weakens the maverick element   ... not sure if that's good or bad 

Scraped a few pips, but not positive enough considering I had the trade reasonably well pegged  ..... keep working at it!


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## barney

I guess I should be happy with the target price ..... It turned out to be within a couple of pips of the short term low which was based on yesterdays spike low on solid volume in the Aussie Session  ..... Lucky maybe, but a pivot that looked like it needed to be respected  ...

Aussie still looks weak and should test last weeks lows at some point, but half expect a bounce from there  (=0.88930 ish)


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## cogs

Technically the AUD is very oversold, but it's clear to see the intent is to keep driving it lower until the technical signals normalise again.
Looks like it might now do some ranging to fill the gap even further, must be quite a few positions left to close out still.


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## tech/a

cogs said:


> Technically the AUD is very oversold, but it's clear to see the intent is to keep driving it lower until the technical signals normalise again.




What on earth does this mean? 
Who has this intent ?
What are normalized technicals ?


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## cogs

Asked in a bit of a cynical fashion Tech?

I understand you don't trade FX much from your postings. At the risk of getting further cynical replies I will give a brief reply.

In short some technical indicators do show the AUD as being oversold, I think most would agree, that being the case, it certainly appears the financial powers that be, want the AUD lower. The indicator I use and some other lagging indicators work in correlation with overbought oversold action, at this stage the AUD just continues to show oversold, oversold day after day with little correction taking place.

If situations like the above action, continues I tend to see my indicator 'normalise' and not give (or indicate) so such extreme oversold, overbought signals.


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## tech/a

Yeh it's cynical.
The way I read it there is this group who are pushing the AUD 
Lower with the sole intention of " normalizing " technicals?

Fanciful


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## barney

Aussie has been belted  ... EURO is topping ..

Looking for a short term swing/scalp on the EUR/AUD Short

Scaling in but running tight stops cause it could reverse at this early stage of a possible swing down, which is against the trend  .. could go either way ... (punters trade !)


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## barney

Got a little underwater for a short while but still liked the trade  .. added positions as per Maverick style  .....  Tightened stops .. looking ok.


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## barney

Potentially decent trade now as the EUR/AUD can easily run 100 pips when it goes .... Stops tightened ... Wait and see.....


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## barney

Lol  ... (Sarcastic laugh)   ... Stopped out a minute or so later for pretty much a Scratch trade .... Way too much effort for no result

There will be a good Short on the EUR/AUD sometime over the next week or so  .... Typically too early on my behalf  ... Back to the drawing board


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## barney

Missed by a little bit last night even though the EUR/AUD short was good if I'd stayed up till the volume came in (I need my beauty sleep sometimes:badsmile:  ..... All things aside, hindsight is useless  ... I knew the time frame was not quite right and took the punt   .... Some follow through on last nights price action, so ... Shorting the GBP/AUD with gusto at the moment  ...... Charts later to see if it all works out


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## barney

Screenshot just prior to stops being taken out  ..... 

Ended up around 20 pips positive, but finding trying to take screen shots and save positions is not easy when taking on multiple positions  ........   

Apologies if its all not too clear at times, but you are dealing with an amateur :


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## barney

Didn't like the look of the Dax at the top  ...... All looks a bit shaky .... Taken a couple of Shorts  ..... Expecting a retrace back into the highs but looks like some downside potential considering the amount of Longs in profit

If it struggles to move higher I might add some Short positions, but there is a bit of short term upward momentum to overcome  .... Another Punt trade, but high reward to risk if it pays off


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## barney

Stopped on one position  .... One remaining  ... going ok


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## barney

Closed final position   ... happy with that


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## barney

cogs said:


> Technically the AUD is very oversold, but it's clear to see the intent is to keep driving it lower until the technical signals normalise again.
> Looks like it might now do some ranging to fill the gap even further, must be quite a few positions left to close out still.






tech/a said:


> What on earth does this mean?
> Who has this intent ?
> What are normalized technicals ?




Sorry hadn't replied to this gentlemen but wasn't sure whether it was my place to do so .... but as I started the thread, perhaps I should  ......... Bear in mind, any comments I make are to be taken with "L" plates attached (I have only been "considering" the potential of FX for 2 or 3 years and any concepts I have, have been formulated off my own slightly tangential (bent) way of thinking

Cogs  ... I know you trade FX and any input is appreciated   ... 

In response to your question Tech  ....   Cogs is talking about diminishing Momentum   .. Technical Indicators will "Normalise" as Momentum relaxes (regression to the mean etc etc) 

Cheers gentlemen, and feel free to add any input to the thread  .... I am really only doing this to make myself "wakeup" and try and stop doing dumb things ... LOL  ...... (or perhaps a Less % of dumb things, cause total eradication is unlikely!!


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## barney

Merry Christmas to all ...

Trying a new correlation trade for the last one of the year  ...

Its only  a Sim trade so no real stress or value in it, but thought I'd post it cause I like the testing I've done on it so far and think there is some potential for more trades next year based around the principle

Concept is simple .... I am looking for strength or weakness in relation to the EUR and GBP  ...... If I can pick a short term trend in the EUR/GBP pair, and weigh up the relative strength of the EUR and GBP against the USD  .. and also the EUR and GBP against the CHF, it is possible to take a trade in the opposite direction on the GBP/CHF for example ... or even hedge a GBP/CHF long against a EUR/CHF short and swing trade for 24 hours or so

Currently seeing some slight weakness in the EUR/GBP so scaled into some Longs on the GBP/CHF  ... As I say, only Sim, so only token value either way.


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## barney

Took this second screenshot as trade was starting to look ok ... Came back to the Chart just as the EUR/GBP started to break down  ..... Next pic could be interesting


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## barney

Lol  .... Funny how the Sim trades are always better

EUR/GBP broke down, so the GBP/CHF broke up  .... Have trailed stops and have a risk free trade with some good upside potential ....

The correlation concept looks sound from my limited eyeballing so it will be interesting if I can turn this pattern into something worthwhile next year


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## barney

I managed to pick up a couple of quick trades on the live account  for a buck or two

The Sim account ended up like below  ...............  The incentive is clear


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## barney

CHF is showing more strength across the board which should put some pressure downwards on the USD/CHF  Euro is also showing more resilience overall  ..... Therefore have taken some Longs on the EUR/USD  .... fairly tight stops just under the current short term range ...  Chart in a minute


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## barney

Chart  EUR/USD Longs  ...

Target Area around 1.38350


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## barney

Momentum dropping out of the EUR/GBP.

Putting the Long EUR/USD under a bit of pressure ....  Still struggling to break out of the range  .....


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## barney

Momentum fortunately kicked back in on the Euro across the board  .... Chart is *EUR/USD*


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## barney

Momentum dried up on the Euro  ..... Trade closed at 1.38055 and 1.38048  ... approx. +20 pips ....... happy with that


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## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Momentum dried up on the Euro  ..... Trade closed at 1.38055 and 1.38048  ... approx. +20 pips ....... happy with that




Hi Barney, what's the bottom indi you're using?


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## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Barney, what's the bottom indi you're using?





Howdy Apoc,

That particular indicator is a combination of a standard stochastic which is overlayed with Envelopes. You can fiddle/adjust the settings of each indicator separately but because the Envelope is always "relative" to the Stochastic I find it gives a bit more credibility to the position of the Stochastic  ..... Just another one of my odd ideas 

To be honest, most of what I'm trying to get a handle on at the moment is the relative movement/correlation of the different pairs, so the indicator is more for visual confirmation/backup, but it does seem to highlight the cyclic nature of FX pretty well.

I know you trade FX, so any input/advice/tips etc is always welcome  .... Cheers.


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## barney

USD pretty strong tonight  ....

EUR/GBP retracing back to middle of the range so Shorting both EUR/USD and GBP/USD  ... tight stops


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## barney

Both trades went positive so ran close trailing stops hoping for a runner .... GBP/USD cut back sharply and stopped out for about +9 pips ....     

EUR/USD got a bit of momentum and managed +21 pips ...... I was a bit late to the action tonight but still ended up ok considering ....


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## barney

Exercise completed for the month. 

Pros:- It makes you concentrate harder and you are more accountable for your actions.

Cons:-   The logistics of trying to place trades,take screenshots, then transfer screenshots to "Paint", then try and post it all up while a trade is unfolding is often difficult, especially when trades start to go wrong.  For that reason the majority of trades that eventually got to the Forum were ones that ran immediately, as a high majority were stopped out before getting that far. A little over 170 trades all up, and as the stats below show, there were way more losers than winners ..... managed to keep most of those small however. 

The month only finished in the black courtesy of my "Dax" trades  .... Kind of ironic that I am trying to learn Forex trading, but my Index trades kept me afloat   Probably a lesson to be learned there, but I'll keep persevering.

Anyway, that will be it from me for a while. I'm glad I tried it and would recommend the exercise to anyone trying to get a grip on some of their trading demons ...... I still have a few to fix

Monthly stats below ..... Cheers.


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## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Exercise completed for the month.
> 
> Pros:- It makes you concentrate harder and you are more accountable for your actions.
> 
> Cons:-   The logistics of trying to place trades,take screenshots, then transfer screenshots to "Paint", then try and post it all up while a trade is unfolding is often difficult, especially when trades start to go wrong.  For that reason the majority of trades that eventually got to the Forum were ones that ran immediately, as a high majority were stopped out before getting that far. A little over 170 trades all up, and as the stats below show, there were way more losers than winners ..... managed to keep most of those small however.
> 
> The month only finished in the black courtesy of my "Dax" trades  .... Kind of ironic that I am trying to learn Forex trading, but my Index trades kept me afloat   Probably a lesson to be learned there, but I'll keep persevering.
> 
> Anyway, that will be it from me for a while. I'm glad I tried it and would recommend the exercise to anyone trying to get a grip on some of their trading demons ...... I still have a few to fix
> 
> Monthly stats below ..... Cheers.




great thread Barney,

don't worry keep going... last month i scarped together just under 10% really off one month saving trade. bar that late one 1% at best... but that's how it rolls. my acc was tiny last month 300$Months end i have redeposited bought it back up to 1K. trading GBPJPY only off the 1 hour. gave myself two month to prove it was worth doing on small accs or i was going back to daily. 

two months, two profitable months so going to keep on keeping on with the 1 hour GJ. each profitable month i will keep depositing as long as i maintain 5% a month on average. 

so far this month 3 trades all .1 size
1 loss 31.08 buy at the top before it fell over
1 win 55.09
1 win 51.71 both shorts on the last down move. 

Next week looking long


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## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> great thread Barney,
> 
> don't worry keep going... last month i scarped together just under 10% really off one month saving trade. bar that late one 1% at best... but that's how it rolls. my acc was tiny last month 300$Months end i have redeposited bought it back up to 1K. trading GBPJPY only off the 1 hour. gave myself two month to prove it was worth doing on small accs or i was going back to daily.
> 
> two months, two profitable months so going to keep on keeping on with the 1 hour GJ. each profitable month i will keep depositing as long as i maintain 5% a month on average.
> 
> so far this month 3 trades all .1 size
> 1 loss 31.08 buy at the top before it fell over
> 1 win 55.09
> 1 win 51.71 both shorts on the last down move.
> 
> Next week looking long




Yeah Cheers Apoc,

Certainly won't be giving up on FX in the near term ... The potential is huge

Back to the drawing board for a while now and will update occasionally when/if I've made some more progress.


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## >Apocalypto<

Hi Barney,

Not cherry picking... this is my 4th trade of the year. opened start of this current 12pm bar...

was looking to buy this week but the signal of a hard trend breaking candle, showwed a statement and looking for a test of the low.. aud is also rallying in a new trend. it's moving counter the GJ atm so this added to evidence a support test could happen. 

this trade i might close before TP as I have a feeling in my gut it's a low test to start a base. at 20-30 pips infront i will go to BE see how the buyers handle this bear push.

***trade closed around lows 23 pips... still falling but i'm going to wait for a new lower high break to sell again or a bounce high low off this low. ***


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## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> this trade i might close before TP as I have a feeling in my gut it's a low test to start a base. at 20-30 pips infront i will go to BE see how the buyers handle this bear push.
> 
> ***trade closed around lows 23 pips... still falling but i'm going to wait for a new lower high break to sell again or a bounce high low off this low. ***




Good trade ......... Over 1% drop very early in the day

Both red dot price areas should be tested at some point today you'd expect.


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## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Back to the drawing board for a while now and will update occasionally when/if I've made some more progress.




if you find it helps keep updating.. i actually found being active on forums did my trading bad... it made me need to prove something.. that's why i tend to disappear for a while.

Regards to trading what's helped me is making as simple as i can.. i tend to trade off levels now in the trends direction, i like to look for statements... other thing which is going ok is sticking to one pair and not looking at the markets too much during the hour. 

i was all set to daily for months and did ok (only 1 major draw down) but i found it to hard to wait 10 days for a set up and ended up creating trades... 

I really love the GJ it's a great pair and i get a long with it... first time in a long time i have have had to consecutive 10%+ months trading under 4 hours. 

I went back to scalping before settling on the 1 hour GJ and it was 3 months of disaster. tried rainbow range bars shaking my laptop same old 1 week profit followed by 3 weeks bigger draw downs. hence being back on tiny accs. 

as you saw today the GJ can just rocket so on one side you can hit 50+ pips quickly, on the flip if you take a few loses in a row it can really eat into your acc.


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## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Good trade ......... Over 1% drop very early in the day
> 
> Both red dot price areas should be tested at some point today you'd expect.




that move caught me off guard, mistake i made was thinking too much regarding the level i thought could hold. win is a win and on to the next.

i tried a 2nd sell last hour but the way it kept holding at that short term support where it's buying off now spooked me. I closed for a  minor win... there's a bounce on now so going to let it develop and look for more selling signals.


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## barney

Good to have your input Apoc. ........

Have visitors tonight so will be off the air till later.  I do have an Alert on the GBP/USD if it spikes above 1.64000  Looks unlikely on face value but it won't surprise me in the least  ...... might be some nice Shorts developing above that level if it spikes there quickly  ... We shall see.


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## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you find it helps keep updating.. i actually found being active on forums did my trading bad... it made me need to prove something.. that's why i tend to disappear for a while.
> 
> Regards to trading what's helped me is making as simple as i can.. i tend to trade off levels now in the trends direction, i like to look for statements... other thing which is going ok is sticking to one pair and not looking at the markets too much during the hour.
> 
> i was all set to daily for months and did ok (only 1 major draw down) but i found it to hard to wait 10 days for a set up and ended up creating trades...
> 
> I really love the GJ it's a great pair and i get a long with it... first time in a long time i have have had to consecutive 10%+ months trading under 4 hours.
> 
> I went back to scalping before settling on the 1 hour GJ and it was 3 months of disaster. tried rainbow range bars shaking my laptop same old 1 week profit followed by 3 weeks bigger draw downs. hence being back on tiny accs.
> 
> as you saw today the GJ can just rocket so on one side you can hit 50+ pips quickly, on the flip if you take a few loses in a row it can really eat into your acc.





Scalping Forex is a tough gig for sure!!   I still prefer to read off the 1 minute most of the time though .... just seems easier to get a handle on where its moving, but as for scalping

Also like the GBP crosses  ...... way more movement pip for pip than other crosses  .... the movement on the Pound/Aussie is at times.

GBP/USD just crept above my alert point of 1.6400   ...... Looking for potential shorts if it weakens


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## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Scalping Forex is a tough gig for sure!!   I still prefer to read off the 1 minute most of the time though .... just seems easier to get a handle on where its moving, but as for scalping
> 
> Also like the GBP crosses  ...... way more movement pip for pip than other crosses  .... the movement on the Pound/Aussie is at times.
> 
> GBP/USD just crept above my alert point of 1.6400   ...... Looking for potential shorts if it weakens




Hi Barney,

Had minor roller coaster last few days but what month isn't like that... I'm up about 13% atm so my trading is going to slow down a lot. Trim position sizes and only focus on killa looking set ups. I aim for 10% so IMO my month is done. I find when I sky rocket I blow it up due to over confidence. I will keep updating time to time... keep us posted on your progress.

cheers,


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## >Apocalypto<

Sorry Barney not trying to hijack...

Will keep updating as the month goes on.

had a few loses in a row but made them back... same old trading the GJ sold the aud but closed it as it really is not with my plan so it shouldn't have happened. 

have a sell open looking for a base to crack, still some buyers on it so will keep holding till market proves me right or wrong... most trades atm will be .05, exciting i know. but at 10% in front i normally cut the size.

sell not looking so good atm might be buying later tonight.


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## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Sorry Barney not trying to hijack...
> 
> Will keep updating as the month goes on.




No worries Apoc .... Happy for you to post results and any other stuff you think could be helpful/useful etc, so please continue

How about the GBP tonight  .... About 100 pips in 60 seconds against almost everything!!Makes you feel a bit like .....  LOL ...


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## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> No worries Apoc .... Happy for you to post results and any other stuff you think could be helpful/useful etc, so please continue
> 
> How about the GBP tonight  .... About 100 pips in 60 seconds against almost everything!!Makes you feel a bit like .....  LOL ...




haha i was short when that move came through... 

Long now looking for 60 pips of follow through.


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## Jake S

Gday Barney & co, 

I like what you are doing here! 
Its great to reflect back previous errors & learn from them, its the only way! I have my fair share of 'ballsup trades'. I also have a few good ones. I hope to post here in the future if that is no problem as I believe I could share some of my knowledge as can everyone else. 

The currencies don't seem to get a huge crowd here so would be good to see a bit of traffic & some thoughts and or constructive criticism. 

Until next time, 
Keep up the good work.

Jake.


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## barney

Jake S said:


> Gday Barney & co,
> 
> I like what you are doing here!
> Its great to reflect back previous errors & learn from them, its the only way! I have my fair share of 'ballsup trades'. I also have a few good ones. I hope to post here in the future if that is no problem as I believe I could share some of my knowledge as can everyone else.
> 
> The currencies don't seem to get a huge crowd here so would be good to see a bit of traffic & some thoughts and or constructive criticism.
> 
> Until next time,
> Keep up the good work.
> 
> Jake.




Howdy Jake  ... and welcome from Tasmania!

M8, Please post anything and everything that you think could be of interest .... I only started this thread cause I thought it might actually help cure some of my FX trading Demons  ..... So far I have learned that I am still a better Index trader than FX trader ... lol  ... Unfortunately I am still an average Index trader!!

I hope to update in time and show how I've improved my strike rate  ... In the meantime, it would be great if others can show their progress (or lack of) in FX or anything else  .... Cheers.


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## barney

Thought I'd post this trade up I did earlier in the month (10th January)  Didn't get any actual trade screenshots at the time as it was over in less than a minute

Please note ..... This is the WORST TRADE I have done in a few months. 

*Chart 1* is where I initially took a short entry ... I don't generally trade breakouts in anything anymore but I literally sat down at the computer for less than a minute, saw the Euro losing power to the downside and jumped straight in without any analysis at all .... BAD MOVE lol (not that I was laughing at the time)

On face value it looks like more potential downside, but there is a sting in the tail with FX  ..... (i.e. ....watch the 24 hour timeframe, which I omitted to do in my haste!)

Anyway, there are several lessons here, all of which I was aware of if I had taken the time to look at the past price action ..... I didn't do that and paid the price.


----------



## barney

Closer up view of the next 45 -60 seconds .....  

I closed the trade on the spike (about minus 70 pips), but then made the mistake of trying to chase it both directions as the big money jockeyed for positions over the 95 pip range which took literally seconds in both directions ...... Four trades later  ... minus about 170 pips ....... IDIOT

Fortunately stopped trading for a couple of minutes and re-grouped to end up only 110 pips down for the session, but just another reminder of how* not *to trade Forex!!

Also fortunately for the rest of the month I have traded ok, but the bad days need to be eliminated if I am ever going to get on top of this


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Closer up view of the next 45 -60 seconds .....
> 
> I closed the trade on the spike (about minus 70 pips), but then made the mistake of trying to chase it both directions as the big money jockeyed for positions over the 95 pip range which took literally seconds in both directions ...... Four trades later  ... minus about 170 pips ....... IDIOT
> 
> Fortunately stopped trading for a couple of minutes and re-grouped to end up only 110 pips down for the session, but just another reminder of how* not *to trade Forex!!
> 
> Also fortunately for the rest of the month I have traded ok, but the bad days need to be eliminated if I am ever going to get on top of this




Hi Barney,

I also made some classics over the last week once i hit +15% it all turned on me. still following my plan dropped three in a row that wiped out half my makings. Quick bounce up, started again more losses... no idea why just didn’t work out. Ended up 10% down. so I had a deal that if this happened i would take 85% of my acc out. I have done that. (That includes profit form the last two months) so back to 218$ in my acc. had two wins but went off the plan and lost 4 in a row. $170 acc. things looking grim went back to the core set ups and rules i have been using for 3 months. Pulled 53$ back on a short Friday that I cut... turned out to be a 200+ pip winner but that's life.

so back to 233$ acc and still $30 down to claim a 3rd profitable month. Trading .05 - .08 sizes. Going to sit tight this week and look for a nice one or two. Looking for a third month in front but not going to chase it. Trying to keep my head.

Unlike other times this has happened i have had no regrets or been overly upset about what happened. Just believe stick to the plan and follow my rules without getting to involved.

Love the FOREX one sec king of the world, second sec lying on the ground bleeding wondering what happened.  : )


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Love the FOREX one sec king of the world, second sec *lying on the ground bleeding wondering what happened*.  : )




Indeed


----------



## barney

No gory details just yet but the Pound feels a bit short at the moment


----------



## barney

barney said:


> No gory details just yet but the Pound feels a bit short at the moment





Just fishing with short term trades when I made that statement, but the vibe was right at the time ......


----------



## barney

Took the last trade off the table way too early yet again  ..... Should I be happy with +28 pips ...... Nah, that is another Ballsup trade to me  ... So much to learn!!


EDIT:-     
Actually I shouldn't call that a Ballsup to be fair to myself  .... What I should have done is trailed a tight stop to take advantage of the move ..... The analysis was ok; the entry was ok; the exit was early and cost a fair amount of pips   ... Two out of three is actually an improvement


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Took the last trade off the table way too early yet again  ..... Should I be happy with +28 pips ...... Nah, that is another Ballsup trade to me  ... So much to learn!!
> 
> 
> EDIT:-
> Actually I shouldn't call that a Ballsup to be fair to myself  .... What I should have done is trailed a tight stop to take advantage of the move ..... The analysis was ok; the entry was ok; the exit was early and cost a fair amount of pips   ... Two out of three is actually an improvement




Hey Barney,

Never kick yourself for missing some. on the 1 hour or lower times... it changes so fast that grabbing what you think is nice is at times the best way to go. (as long as it's decent RR) i noticed the GJ moves around 100-170 a short move. so by the time i get in and out that normally means 50-90 for me. 

well last night i got back all my losses, month is a small profit again. I just took a long on the GJ so see how that pans out. last three where all decent wins. 

like this range break on the 1 hour looking for this current hour to be a inside bar to set up further move up. but now i have posted it, it will most likely be a loser LOL.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hey Barney,
> 
> Never kick yourself for missing some. on the 1 hour or lower times... it changes so fast that grabbing what you think is nice is at times the best way to go. (as long as it's decent RR) i noticed the GJ moves around 100-170 a short move. so by the time i get in and out that normally means 50-90 for me.
> 
> well last night i got back all my losses, month is a small profit again. I just took a long on the GJ so see how that pans out. last three where all decent wins.
> 
> like this range break on the 1 hour looking for this current hour to be a inside bar to set up further move up. but now i have posted it, it will most likely be a loser LOL.





Yeah, you are right Apoc ..... 28 pips is not to be sneezed at for a short term trade.  I ended up a handful of pips down by the end of the session after butchering a couple of other trades lol

Good luck with the GJ long ..... Been out all day, but notice the USD has been weaker than the GBP against the JPY which is why the GBPUSD has been on the up today.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Yeah, you are right Apoc ..... 28 pips is not to be sneezed at for a short term trade.  I ended up a handful of pips down by the end of the session after butchering a couple of other trades lol




no, not at all. i have stopped trying to have per day/week/month return ideas. it never works out like that. I think it's dangerous to think that way. win is a win and as long as u get there the ups and downs are just part of it. by the sounds of it you made a dollar today so that's a thumbs up from me. 



> Good luck with the GJ long ..... Been out all day, but notice the USD has been weaker than the GBP against the JPY which is why the GBPUSD has been on the up today.




well today was a real rollercoaster, some of what i methioned above really unfolded today. 

Refer to the chart i posted with the numbered trades i made. 

1 was the long i posted i took. That was stopped out. (what did i tell u!)
2 2nd long as it keep shaping up as a continuation pattern closed it for a small win. 
3 3rd try at a break out this was also rejected at the highs. stopped out
4 took a short as the range couldn't break that high.. this was stopped out on the next bar's high. at this point i was in real trouble acc was back at 180. 
5 seeing it fail again at that high i went all in believing in this pattern and that it would break. if this failed i would have ruined my acc as i was short by .12 with 41 pip stop she broke clawed back $75.9. 

So what did i learn today? back yourself if you're trading with coolness and not emotion. I was a little mad on the size of the last trade but i really felt it was done at that high and going to cut all the weak longs out. trading is never black and white and no matter how dark it looks the sun is just around the corner. so second time this month i have taken a black hole back to fresh highs in profit. Month profit is up more then it began this morning, but it was a wild ride. 

as what happened to you, i could have hung onto that short or trimmed 1/2 and let it run but for me 57 pips was good for me so i closed. can't catch them all. (still falling now) looking for shorts on the next decent retrace.

enjoying the chat barney


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> well today was a real rollercoaster, some of what i methioned above really unfolded today.
> 
> So what did i learn today? back yourself if you're trading with coolness and not emotion.




I know what you mean by Rollercoaster Apoc 

Been trading a bit crappy this week, but have managed to dig myself out of a couple of holes which is a positive sign.  Overall the Ballsups have been generally neutralised this month

Scatter chart for January, and graph of December and January Profit/Loss  ......   484 trades for the two months (Dec-Jan) and I am almost dead level where I started from lol  ...... That's actually an improvement on where I was at a few months back ...... Scary but true

Taking a lot of short term/scalp trades which is not really an ideal way to trade FX, but the more screen time the better at this stage.  Couple of good lessons learned this month ..... ie. Don't get suckered into spikes (retail traps) leading into the London/US opens.  When scaling in, don't get overweight too early if the position is not behaving.  Be more patient with entries.  Don't chase breakouts ..... Don't chase breakouts  ..... did I mention breakouts!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> I know what you mean by Rollercoaster Apoc
> 
> Been trading a bit crappy this week, but have managed to dig myself out of a couple of holes which is a positive sign.  Overall the Ballsups have been generally neutralised this month
> 
> Scatter chart for January, and graph of December and January Profit/Loss  ......   484 trades for the two months (Dec-Jan) and I am almost dead level where I started from lol  ...... That's actually an improvement on where I was at a few months back ...... Scary but true
> 
> Taking a lot of short term/scalp trades which is not really an ideal way to trade FX, but the more screen time the better at this stage.  Couple of good lessons learned this month ..... ie. Don't get suckered into spikes (retail traps) leading into the London/US opens.  When scaling in, don't get overweight too early if the position is not behaving.  Be more patient with entries.  Don't chase breakouts ..... Don't chase breakouts  ..... did I mention breakouts!




Hi Barney,

good efforts, getting a BE at times is as good a profit. in terms of learning. plus not every month will be a winner. Stopping the draw down is imo very important. I was lucky again this month, as I was back at 189$ again yesterday. Pulled in 79.3 to salvage the month. had two small wins this morning on longs but in hindsight they where bad trades. 

after a very similar month to last month.. a lot of wild swings... I finished up with about 3.8% that's $10.08 on my micro account. but that's 3 months for me now in a row. i won't ad more funds till a can bring this acc but up to $300. will look to ad 1k if i can do that and hold that figure at Febs end. see how FEB goes. I still have a few bad habits that worry me, which i need to try and stop.

I main mistakes i made this month are the consistent ones i make. 
Not waiting for the bar to close. 
Not waiting for a confirmation statement bar.. (impatience) 
Over trading a little to much this month. 
Not holding new trend patterns trades a little longer (Fear of losing what I don't own yet)

a sell is shaping up atm on the GJ but i will wait for it to confirm. 

Going to the 20/20 tonight so this might be it for Jan.

The massive dip in the graph is my withdrawal.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

a couple more graphs

DEC NOV and the last three months in one.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> I still have a few bad habits that worry me, which i need to try and stop.
> 
> I main mistakes i made this month are the consistent ones i make.
> Not waiting for the bar to close.
> Not waiting for a confirmation statement bar.. (impatience)
> Over trading a little to much this month.
> Not holding new trend patterns trades a little longer (Fear of losing what I don't own yet)





Appreciate your input Apoc.   Enjoy the cricket


----------



## barney

Update for the month, and some personal assessment to keep me focussed ....

Been sitting on my hands a lot this month.  I often wonder why after watching Forex charts for so long, that I can't just sit down at the computer and immediately "know" where the market is going, and trade accordingly ..... At times I have been able to do that, but not often enough to start putting serious money on trades.

Only 67 trades this month on my live micro account ...... The graph is heading slightly up, but the same "result" for three months in a row tells me something has to change to make this work.

My 3 month results show ......   The majority of trades are either scratch or very close to scratch, which is not  a bad thing, but the percentage of scratch trades compared to the number of good/winning trades is too high.  The bulk of the profits come from occasional outlier trades .... this is not a good model to base from.

My results indicate I could be profitable, but would need an account size around 20-30K just to cover the leverage required ..... The reason for this is basically, my entries are often not good enough to get on the winning side quick enough and I need to scale in often to cover this. (Simple fix ... better entries:1zhelp:


Short conclusion  ....... I have basically been trying to short term/scalp trade FX hoping that the volume of trades might "teach" me more quickly.  This is probably the hardest way to trade FX, so perhaps taking a step backwards and building up positions more slowly via swing trading might be a better option.  I am impatient so this would require some work.  

3 months info has given me enough ammo to sort a few things out.  I need to go back over the good the bad and the ugly trades and journal why they did or didn't work .... Bookwork is not my forte (another problem

The account balance may not be moving much but I have stopped losing month after month like I used to so there may be some hope. See how things go over the next couple of months.


----------



## barney

Not happy to post this graph up, but it is what it is


Brief rundown of the month; Started with a shocker half dozen trades after a reasonable previous month ..... The big early losses were actually Index trades.  I took a couple of positions, got into trouble, then started flipping in and out of positions chasing losses ... needless to say, I lost the chase  Of course, had I held onto my original position the loss would have been miniscule (lesson 1 ... trust your analysis)

For the bulk of the month after that ballsup, I actually traded OK, slowly making up a reasonable amount of the losses, before stuffing up again with some bad entries and getting into leverage problems due to my small account size.

Fortunately, this is only my play money account;  On my larger account, I went in harder as the position started to turn where I expected, and I ended the month in reasonable shape.  (Lesson 2  ... Don't position size above your weight!)

The most obvious thing to me is what I already know .... My winning positions are around the 50% mark yet I still manage to lose more than I make  ... Knowing when to hold or fold is important, but more importantly ... Better Entries!!


----------



## Wysiwyg

barney said:


> Short conclusion  ....... I have basically been trying to short term/scalp trade FX hoping that the volume of trades might "teach" me more quickly.  This is probably the hardest way to trade FX, so perhaps taking a step backwards and building up positions more slowly via swing trading might be a better option.  I am impatient so this would require some work.



Hope you don't mind some comment on your thread? 

I have been there. The killer for scalp trading is making the spread and or commission before one breaks even and moves into profit. For every loss taken add that spread/comm. Don't throw your money away into the shark pool mate. Trade for quality not quantity. Trade smarter.


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> Hope you don't mind some comment on your thread?
> 
> I have been there. The killer for scalp trading is making the spread and or commission before one breaks even and moves into profit. For every loss taken add that spread/comm. Don't throw your money away into the shark pool mate. Trade for quality not quantity. Trade smarter.





Howdy Wys .... Any/all comments greatly appreciated,   

Yeah I know within myself I'm not clever enough to scalp trade  ... especially FX which can spit you out in a heart beat (and does regularly!)  ......   

Re trading smarter,  I assume you mean swing/position trade?   Scale in with smaller position sizes and build a position over a longer time frame?  If that's what you mean, I totally agree.

If you were starting again, what would you consider the most important "ingredients" to successful FX trading?

Cheers.


----------



## Wysiwyg

barney said:


> Howdy Wys .... Any/all comments greatly appreciated,
> 
> Yeah I know within myself I'm not clever enough to scalp trade  ... especially FX which can spit you out in a heart beat (and does regularly!)  ......



This is my failed month of February in which I trialled a system which had back tested reasonably well. I bought data, run it through Amibroker and punted the signals though FX account. Some was discretionary but obviously real time and backtest is different. I could have been physically slow on the mouse or hesitant or rushed at times. I was even angry at times because price moved against me more often than not. I traded frequently at 908 times in the month. I could not turn the equity curve up. Commission plus Swap was $520. 

Time scale = 1 & 5 minutes
Trades = 908
Commission cost = $520
Loss = $3662.13






> If you were starting again, what would you consider the most important "ingredients" to successful FX trading?




Trade sparingly and trade with conviction. Wider stop loss and smaller position size.


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> This is my failed month of February in which I trialled a system which had back tested reasonably well. I bought data, run it through Amibroker and punted the signals though FX account. Some was discretionary but obviously real time and backtest is different. I could have been physically slow on the mouse or hesitant or rushed at times. I was even angry at times because price moved against me more often than not. I traded frequently at 908 times in the month. I could not turn the equity curve up. Commission plus Swap was $520.
> 
> Time scale = 1 & 5 minutes
> Trades = 908
> Commission cost = $520
> Loss = $3662.13
> 
> 
> Trade sparingly and trade with conviction. Wider stop loss and smaller position size.





Nasty looking graph Wys!    Those kind of months are a real confidence drain for sure.  

Agree 100%  ... positions size relative to the heat your account can absorb is critical.


NFP about to be released  ..... I have a few trawling buy/sell orders way out of the market just in case of some rogue spikes


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Hi Barney,

well after the decent months i had with the GJ I was caught hard in march took a beat-down at the start of the month and never came back. 

This is FX for you... still trading FX on the daily but giving it away under the daily time frame. 

When i had my IB acc i did well trading Oil and a little Gold. So I spent from the 12th arch till today trading demo 1 hour WTI and Spot Gold. made 751 points since 12/03 till now. Just opened and funded a live acc with IC Markets to trade those two only off the 1 hour using my normal approach.

Trading 1$ per tick for starting balance of $500 , will update on my progress. 

Personally I feel scalping FX is extremely hard, also the work required for return is insane. have you looked at higher time frames?

Cheers
Joe


----------



## cogs

> the work required for return is insane



Absolutely correct mate. I had to step back this year to see if it is really worth it, compared to my day job it is simply just not even worth turning my PC on.

The only way I could see it being worth my while was putting my trading ideas into an EA and spending maybe an hr or so a day just checking up on it. I get my ~$50 for that effort so it works for now, but it really has highlighted how leverage is my and any retail traders enemy.

FX is a lot of neg leverage to make a lesser return. 

Think we may see some EUR and GBP action in the next few hrs, gaps to fill, near tops reached, should be interesting.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Barney,
> 
> well after the decent months i had with the GJ I was caught hard in march took a beat-down at the start of the month and never came back.
> 
> This is FX for you... still trading FX on the daily but giving it away under the daily time frame.
> 
> When i had my IB acc i did well trading Oil and a little Gold. So I spent from the 12th arch till today trading demo 1 hour WTI and Spot Gold. made 751 points since 12/03 till now. Just opened and funded a live acc with IC Markets to trade those two only off the 1 hour using my normal approach.
> 
> Trading 1$ per tick for starting balance of $500 , will update on my progress.
> 
> Personally I feel scalping FX is extremely hard, also the work required for return is insane. have you looked at higher time frames?
> 
> Cheers
> Joe




Hey Joe (Good name for a song ....)

I'm hearing you about the struggle with FX.  I'll persevere a bit longer but agree scalping is not the way to trade it.  Still looking for some kind of edge ...in any time framelol   

Good luck with IC.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> The only way I could see it being worth my while was putting my trading ideas into an EA and spending maybe an hr or so a day just checking up on it. I get my ~$50 for that effort so it works for now, but it really has highlighted how leverage is my and any retail traders enemy.




Howdy Cogs ..... How much starting capital do you need to run the EA account without margin issues?  If it keeps working will you consider upping the stake?


----------



## barney

Speaking of trouble trading FX, I traded pretty poorly early last night but scalped a few dollars from the SPI late when the US started to roll over, so I may as well post it up  ...... 

Seems to be coming a common issue ... Lose money on FX ... try and break even with an Index trade .. not an ideal recipe for success 


The spread was 3 ticks both in and out so out of the 13 ticks I banked 7 which is not too bad on the SPI after hours.


----------



## cogs

Hi Barn,

Having played around with trying to find a solution to being profitable in FX for what seems like half my life, I seem to have knuckled it down to a certain extent. Between being financially destroyed in a separation and being familiar with the nature of HFT, broker tricks, market changes and so on, I wasn't prepared to sink much money into any trading again, without generating a higher degree in confidence in a logical method, so going live with my EA I restricted start up to $500. I withdrew that several days later, and it just runs on its own resources now.

I guess that was the long answer.

I am very reluctant to discuss this sort of stuff on live forums as I have been hunted down in the past, phoned up by my broker (after putting he two and two together) from my comments, over another matter.

I can say with confidence to make money in this game you need to cover all bases.

From what I have seen you should be able to (EA) your trading style. The biggest challenge traders have, and overlook with EA's is not adapting to market changes, and big moves like the AUD CPI (bank) move 2 days ago. I am happy with how I am dealing with this now, but am always aware there could be bigger surprises around the corner.

Yes, I love trading.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> Hi Barn,
> 
> Having played around with trying to find a solution to being profitable in FX for what seems like half my life, I seem to have knuckled it down to a certain extent. Between being financially destroyed in a separation and being familiar with the nature of HFT, broker tricks, market changes and so on, I wasn't prepared to sink much money into any trading again, without generating a higher degree in confidence in a logical method, so going live with my EA I restricted start up to $500. I withdrew that several days later, and it just runs on its own resources now.
> 
> I guess that was the long answer.
> 
> I am very reluctant to discuss this sort of stuff on live forums as I have been hunted down in the past, phoned up by my broker (after putting he two and two together) from my comments, over another matter.
> 
> I can say with confidence to make money in this game you need to cover all bases.
> 
> From what I have seen you should be able to (EA) your trading style. The biggest challenge traders have, and overlook with EA's is not adapting to market changes, and big moves like the AUD CPI (bank) move 2 days ago. I am happy with how I am dealing with this now, but am always aware there could be bigger surprises around the corner.
> 
> Yes, I love trading.




Thanks for the reply Cogs, and well done on coding an EA that is cash positive.  Certainly don't want to steal any of your system ideas, but do you think an ageing rock guitarist could make any sense out of Coding?

Just guessing, but with the spike on the Aussie you mention,  I assume some kind of Filter (excessive Range movement relative to Time perhaps??) would be needed to either close, flip or cover?  Is that on the right track? Cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Boys, well my return to oil&GLD was not the start i wanted at all.... mind was not there and hit 212 acc very quickly. back up to 312 atm but was ready to punch screens other day. mind is the key to this... i was doing the opposite of my demo trading... chasing trades flipping... ect ect

but picked up in the composure department and making more sensible trades... 

Daily GJ just sold it... stop above the bar high.


----------



## cogs

Barn,



> but do you think an ageing rock guitarist could make any sense out of Coding?



Depends what your passion is and how much free time you have I think. I had a coder set mine up originally and still call on him from time to time, but I am comfortable with HTML and most PHP so MQL4 is simliar, and most importantly I have small pockets of free time to apply my thoughts, improve and dabble to improve without meddling. If you have no coding background I would suggest taking a similar path and get someone to code up your idea. 

I am a single parent and work full time so the small windows of opportunity where my emotions are stable and head is clear, so to make great manual trades, opportunities are limited. I wanted to take full advantage of markets sessions and 24 5 1/2 FX market. I still can't help making some manual trades now and then but they generally end up being not so wise.



> Just guessing, but with the spike on the Aussie you mention, I assume some kind of Filter (excessive Range movement relative to Time perhaps??) would be needed to either close, flip or cover? Is that on the right track? Cheers.



Well only the banks know those movements are about to happen, so we (retail traders) are battling to profit from the initial move, so yes, you need to factor in such moves in design.

And analyse and measure as you go. I love my excel charts and a positive number at the end. I started logging results on a demo then used the same chart still adding live results to the same chart. My system is not affected by a change from demo to live, just one of the obstacles I was aware of that needed to be overcome early. Most trading info on forums I find boring or useless, so seeing we are talking AUDUSD thought I'd put this one pair up from my logging:
View attachment 57736

The big drop was my meddling hence affecting the trendline. If we don't measure results we are bound to repeat ourselves.


----------



## cogs

Apocalypto,

Did you get that jump on gold last night? I squeezed a bit out of it from London open to NY.

GBP (and affected pairs) are spiking around a top and could do a stop run and fake out up to 1.70ish, great opportunities for those who know what's going on.

I especially like this sloooow grind up to close the EURUSD gap.

Spot the one on EURGBP?


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Boys, well my return to oil&GLD was not the start i wanted at all.... mind was not there and hit 212 acc very quickly. back up to 312 atm but was ready to punch screens other day. mind is the key to this... i was doing the opposite of my demo trading... chasing trades flipping... ect ect
> 
> but picked up in the composure department and making more sensible trades...
> 
> Daily GJ just sold it... stop above the bar high.




At least you were able to turn it around while under duress  ... not easy.



cogs said:


> Barn,
> 
> 
> Depends what your passion is and how much free time you have I think. I had a coder set mine up originally and still call on him from time to time, but I am comfortable with HTML and most PHP so MQL4 is simliar, and most importantly I have small pockets of free time to apply my thoughts, improve and dabble to improve without meddling. If you have no coding background I would suggest taking a similar path and get someone to code up your idea.
> 
> I am a single parent and work full time so the small windows of opportunity where my emotions are stable and head is clear, so to make great manual trades, opportunities are limited. I wanted to take full advantage of markets sessions and 24 5 1/2 FX market. I still can't help making some manual trades now and then but they generally end up being not so wise.
> 
> 
> Well only the banks know those movements are about to happen, so we (retail traders) are battling to profit from the initial move, so yes, you need to *factor in such moves in design*.
> 
> And *analyse and measure as you go*. I love my excel charts and a positive number at the end. I started logging results on a demo then used the same chart still adding live results to the same chart. My system is not affected by a change from demo to live, just one of the obstacles I was aware of that needed to be overcome early. Most trading info on forums I find boring or useless, so seeing we are talking AUDUSD thought I'd put this one pair up from my logging:
> The big drop was my meddling hence affecting the trendline. If we don't *measure results *we are bound to repeat ourselves.




Yeah, no coding experience at all.  Still have a few issues to work on before having anything potentially worth coding anyway.

Highlighted a couple of your points for reference

If you are getting those "positive numbers" from your EA, it looks good!


----------



## cogs

Barn,

Did you notice the Asian play today on the EURUSD? Was a good one to get on board with.

I got my longs closed out in the gap fill.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> Barn,
> 
> Did you notice the Asian play today on the EURUSD? Was a good one to get on board with.
> 
> I got my longs closed out in the gap fill.




Been out scrubbing floors today Cogs 

Home for a little while and trying to make some sense out of the German Import Prices dropping and the EUR and GBP spiking higher against the USD  ...   Crazy game this!

PS If I was going to make a guess  .... Long the GBP/USD on any current retracement 8.06 pm Aussie time (short term trade)


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Home for a little while and trying to make some sense out of the German Import Prices dropping and the EUR and GBP spiking higher against the USD  ...   Crazy game this!
> 
> PS If I was going to make a guess  .... Long the GBP/USD on any current retracement 8.06 pm Aussie time (short term trade)





I tried the above trade on the GBP/USD, working on the theory that if the Euro was showing strength into pretty average news, then the Pound was likely to follow through after the "euphoria" wore off especially if the EUR/GBP weakened.

As it turned out, the Pound did eventually move to the top of the small range but I had already closed the trade down as it started to look weak.


----------



## barney

One of my better entries/trades for the month .... the GBP/USD topped out and started to roll over.  The Euro was also weakening against the USD while the EUR/GBP was holding its ground ...... Could be a Bread and Butter trade if patience is applied


----------



## barney

Good example of how I can get myself into trouble

Took these trades while I was holding my above "good" GBP short trades.

The SPI was breaking daily highs with weak volume at the same time the Dow had opened and rejected its initial highs.

This also coincided with the Dow rejecting last weeks 50% zone and both the Dax and FTSE showing weakness  ...... looked like a low risk "overnighter" to make a few bucks on the open tomorrow:headshake

Everything reversed and took the SPI with it.  I added three more positions on the way up as new highs were made.   My position was still relatively small, but still carrying a lot more risk than the original position.

Managed to close the four positions out for +9 ticks which included 12 ticks of "spread"  Not a recommended way to trade however

Positives out of the trade:-  Had a concrete reason/assessment for taking the initial trade.  Position sized accordingly which gave me room to manoeuvre when things went pear shaped.


----------



## cogs

A good thing about the Asian close/London open, if you don't catch the jump there is always the retracement (fade). 



> Had a concrete reason/assessment for taking the initial trade. Position sized accordingly which gave me room to manoeuvre when things went pear shaped.



A sound entry plan mate. What's the saying 'the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain rational'.

We might see some active movement in the GBPUSD as it tops and tries to break through 1.70 ish testing, IMO of course.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> We might see some active movement in the GBPUSD as it tops and tries to break through 1.70 ish testing, IMO of course.




Agree .....  

Interesting to see the behaviour of the USD/JPY on the JPY Housing Starts data this arvo as well. Negative 2.8% forecast hasn't been seen for a while


----------



## cogs

barney said:


> Agree .....
> 
> Interesting to see the behaviour of the USD/JPY on the JPY Housing Starts data this arvo as well. Negative 2.8% forecast hasn't been seen for a while




Non Farm Emp due in 5hrs, usually causes some movement. 

USDJPY is a good pair until BOJ interferes.

CAD pairs seen some action recently, factoring in the GDP I'd say, set to be released just after NFE.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> Non Farm Emp due in 5hrs, usually causes some movement.
> 
> USDJPY is a good pair until BOJ interferes.
> 
> CAD pairs seen some action recently, factoring in the GDP I'd say, set to be released just after NFE.





You have a good handle on this stuff Cogs ... Its a pity you don't have more time up your sleeve to dabble.


Scaling into some GBP/AUD shorts at the moment  ... will hopefully elaborate later


----------



## barney

Disregard my last post  ..... The trade went into good profit for a short period, but I tried to ride out the retrace and got well and truly "stopped" !!

Won't even bother posting a chart  As Arnie says ... "I'll be back"


----------



## cogs

Very late manual long entry on EURGBP, (between my day job and domestic duties), but I'll see what I can get out of it.


----------



## cogs

cogs said:


> Very late manual long entry on EURGBP, (between my day job and domestic duties), but I'll see what I can get out of it.
> 
> View attachment 57786




Closed this out with a minor profit after analyzing EURUSD potential top.

Am watching GBPJPY to see what happens next.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> Closed this out with a minor profit after analyzing EURUSD potential top.
> 
> Am watching GBPJPY to see what happens next.





Yeah, glad you got out of that OK  ......    

Still a bit more upside in the Pound the way it looks at the moment.


----------



## barney

April trades .....  Some improvement in general re the amount of consistency.  The occasional bad trades are still the downfall.

Its obvious that I am holding some of the losing trades too long and/or averaging in when I should be simply cutting the trade loose.

Couple of ongoing points to myself  ......  Don't over trade.  Don't assume the direction of the trend. Don't over position size too early when planning to scale into a trade etc.

Still learning the ropes, and seeing potential for improvement, so will continue on a bit longer. I am however leaning towards Index trading rather than FX, simply because the volatility of the short term swings in FX makes money management difficult with anything above micro size on a small account.  That problem could of course simply be my lack of experience and knowledge of the market

Main positive, I ended the month with a small profit


----------



## cogs

With my withdrawals and manual meddling my chart looks very similar. Personally I think you're doing ok, you can see your profits being made, then the hard learning points.

No doubt about it, FX is tricky, anyone who says it's easy is full of **** IMO.



> Don't assume the direction of the trend. Don't over position size too early when planning to scale into a trade etc.



I still fall for this sometimes still, with manual trading, as there are so many 'fake moves' for discount entries in FX.

Still think you could benefit from automating your ideas, sure it's not as dynamic as the human mind, but it takes out our human weaknesses that catches retail traders out. Only a small percentage of the FX market is now manual.

Because of my passion to trade I had trouble stopping trading after making a dollar, so ended up giving it back, hence the zero sum game many talk about. Another reason went auto.

Will PM you later.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> With my withdrawals and manual meddling my chart looks very similar. Personally I think you're doing ok, you can see your profits being made, then the hard learning points.
> 
> No doubt about it, FX is tricky, anyone who says it's easy is full of **** IMO.
> 
> 
> I still fall for this sometimes still, with manual trading, as there are so many 'fake moves' for discount entries in FX.




Appreciate the input Cogs .....  Most of my "lessons" are caused by being complacent, and not cutting the bad trades loose quickly  .... Probably a lack of planning more than anything.



cogs said:


> Still think you could benefit from automating your ideas, sure it's not as dynamic as the human mind, but it takes out our human weaknesses that catches retail traders out. Only a small percentage of the FX market is now manual.
> 
> .




Yeah, its an interesting thought, but my discretionary nature would need to be overhauled with a few more systematic rules  Not out of the question, but I need to put 2 or 3 profitable months together, with a smoother equity curve ...... see how the next couple of months go!


----------



## barney

Posting this up to make an example of my poor trading and not what to do .....

I often sail close to the wind regarding over position sizing relative to the account size I am trading.

The account I am using for this Forum exercise is very small and tonight I traded the Dax with well above the number of positions I should have. It continued against me and I got close to margin call territory, so I eventually cut and run

I did make up a lot of these losses on one of my larger accounts, but still well in the red for the night courtesy of poor planning.

Be interesting to see if I can recover from this episode by the end of the month or whether the account simply becomes untradeable due to lack of funds ...... Not pretty, but a good example of a live "Ballsup"

Like they say; continuing to make the same mistakes and expecting a different result is akin to insanity  .... I fear I may be insane


----------



## cogs

Bit of a bad run on that one Barn.

Yep cut them and live to fight another day.

Hope you didn't get caught up in Drahgi's talk action last night, I still have some involvement, but should come out quite ok. I failed to check upcoming news after getting casual with the quiet period at the beginning of the week, I should have known something was on the way.

This is how I ended up so far after a late start Tuesday. Wasn't sure if I should post as I run the risk of looking like a smart a$$. God knows I've given the markets tens of thousands, now it's my turn.
View attachment 57907


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> This is how I ended up so far after a late start Tuesday. Wasn't sure if I should post as I run the risk of looking like a smart a$$. God knows I've given the markets tens of thousands, now it's my turn.





Now that is an equity curve!!  Well done Cogs.  A 70%+ strike rate with good money management can only head one direction

I have topped up my Account to a more workable size as of today, so hopefully I can emulate your "curve" over the next couple of months  We shall see.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Nice trading clogs!

Barn.... had a lack lustre last few days.... closed early took trades not at the end of the hour... once I realised I was not following 100% to my plan I took most of the last few off so I wouldn't do something really dumb. Mind was not there had trouble leaving them to do their thing.

Gold was in a range teasing it wanted to go lower... but even though it did make one more down just sucked back into the range... was a hard few days to try and trade it. WTI was a lot better but I was having mental issues.... 

Barn are you still scalping? I have found now that from AUST time 4pm to 1am is the best time for me to have a decent hit. Do you trading during a set time session in the day?

Like Cogs not trying to big note... statement is for my IC Markets so far from APR 23 to yesterday. 

start was a disaster... thankfully I got my head right and started to get back to the mindset I had on the sim acc. still have a lot to work on... after a bit of time winning I get balance worried and start worrying I will lose money... this starts the not holding till TP hit and closing early... plus a took three dumb trades that where loses where I jumped in before the hour end... so over the weekend want to try and clear the mind and come back Monday focused... I should be over $700 now but due to losing it I’m where I am. 100% mind game this one.

overall I’m very happy I could come back like I did... but I am also quite disappointed in myself that I can't just keep it robotic and keep that mind frame going... as long as I have these weaknesses creeping in I won't be able to get a big acc going again and maybe one day do this full time.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Barn are you still scalping? I have found now that from AUST time 4pm to 1am is the best time for me to have a decent hit. Do you trading during a set time session in the day?
> 
> Like Cogs not trying to big note... statement is for my IC Markets so far from APR 23 to yesterday.
> 
> start was a disaster... thankfully I got my head right and started to get back to the mindset I had on the sim acc. still have a lot to work on... after a bit of time winning I get balance worried and start worrying I will lose money... this starts the not holding till TP hit and closing early... plus a took three dumb trades that where loses where I jumped in before the hour end... so over the weekend want to try and clear the mind and come back Monday focused... I should be over $700 now but due to losing it I’m where I am. 100% mind game this one.
> 
> overall I’m very happy I could come back like I did... but I am also quite disappointed in myself that I can't just keep it robotic and keep that mind frame going... as long as I have these weaknesses creeping in I won't be able to get a big acc going again and maybe one day do this full time.




Nice return to form their Joe

Re Scalping; I don't set out to purposefully scalp Forex cause a) I'm not a good scalper, and b) Its probably the hardest "chart" to scalp ...... But I find because I am often not trading at the optimum time of day, I tend to be taking (or losing) a handful of pips most of the time ..... The time frame you mention is probably the most common for me under normal circumstances, but very little trading last few days due to family commitments. .... Just back from a couple of days in Sydney and about to see what's been happening in the market as we speak 

Yours and Cogs E/Curve's are both very nice shape  ..... keep it going


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Nice return to form their Joe
> 
> Re Scalping; I don't set out to purposefully scalp Forex cause a) I'm not a good scalper, and b) Its probably the hardest "chart" to scalp ...... But I find because I am often not trading at the optimum time of day, I tend to be taking (or losing) a handful of pips most of the time ..... The time frame you mention is probably the most common for me under normal circumstances, but very little trading last few days due to family commitments. .... Just back from a couple of days in Sydney and about to see what's been happening in the market as we speak
> 
> Yours and Cogs E/Curve's are both very nice shape  ..... keep it going




Hi Barn, 

I went to watch the Saints play tonight.... what %^$ of a game... terrible anyway we're rebuilding :1zhelp:

Missed a cracker on GLD but just caught a WTI buy... so now I have finally crossed the $700 point (only just) 

This is one of my fav set ups... refer chart, the ent bar as marked is a sell bar with a tail off support that is the first retrace in a new forming bull move. I wait till the close and buy... due to this set up being in a solid range the Profit target is the first top. (Green line) I closed this trade there for 35 cents. They don't get much sweeter than that.

Barn that set up works a treat on FX but watch the longs needs to be a nice drive in the price... I do this alot in down trends... find it works very well mid range in the move. once you see some slowing you have to watch it.

Regards to acc's Cogs is very nice and clean impressive. I had a shocking start... but have pulled it together.. i just have to keep my head and keep calm while in trades. I have stop worrying about my acc balance and concentrate on letting my trades work or not work out.

both GLD and WTI are at highs now so i don't think there will be any more set ups for me before bed.... see what happens.


----------



## cogs

Looks like a similar play this week as last, a quiet start as the big push plays out before the fades start.

We may have potential for some good entries under way at the moment. US retails figures about to come out. I see oil jumped on the revised figures.

Interesting times though with S&P and Aus200 playing with highs and new zones, either trying to rope in some suckers at the tops, or a genuine push to higher ground?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Week so far...

Been happy with it, sticking to my rules and waiting... allowing trades to hit TP. 

The two losses
Gold last night was a decent set up so can't fault it... 
WTI trend break that failed and reversed caught it on the long side. 

Both WTI and GLD at decent highs now so going to wait for it to work its self out. 

WTI has been really moving this week... GLD till this afternoon was rather range bound.

I have to open Daily FX trades going... AUDUSD and GLD both longs.


----------



## barney

cogs said:


> Looks like a similar play this week as last, a quiet start as the big push plays out* before the fades start.*?




Another good call Cogs



>Apocalypto< said:


> Week so far...
> 
> Been happy with it, *sticking to my rules* and waiting... allowing trades to hit TP.
> 
> The two losses
> Gold last night* was a decent set up so can't fault it*...




Highlighted a couple of your points Joe ..... I did one particular trade last night on the Dax which lost.  I reviewed it this morning and I was happy with the analysis/entry etc. so even though it lost it didn't feel like a mistake like many trades do

Its frustrating when "good" trades go bad, but its just part of the business.


----------



## barney

Amongst all my Ballsups I do get a few good ones ...Halleluiah!! 

Got on the SPI200 tonight as everything else was weakening.  I think there is more downside in it but decided to close it out.  Might leave a trawling Limit Sell at around 75% above todays current low although I don't expect a fill on that.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Another good call Cogs
> 
> 
> 
> Highlighted a couple of your points Joe ..... I did one particular trade last night on the Dax which lost.  I reviewed it this morning and I was happy with the analysis/entry etc. so even though it lost it didn't feel like a mistake like many trades do
> 
> Its frustrating when "good" trades go bad, but its just part of the business.




Hey Barn,

yeh that tests you.... hard to watch a nice ent go sour... while your mind is yelling (flip flip flip- make money you cant lose!)

*Hey top stuff on the SPI trade, there were a few testing points before it dropped well done on holding your gut*. 

Well I had some ballsups on Thursday and Friday... for whatever reason on Thursday night.. I decided it would be a good idea to double my trade size... well that was mistake #1

Mistake #2 decided to take a gold trade off a blow down move with a 50 cent plus stop... put it at 40 cents and GLD rallied right a way to test the high... I was so emotional due to the double risk i failed to see that real short set up... lost $86 on that trade. 

Mistake #3trade ent was good but double size was not.. sold WTI this one worked out but i was thinking made worried about blowing through all my wins so i closed it early for 13 pts when it ended up doing what i thought it would and moving down 50 pts...  

Mistake 4 took the Gold sell in mistake 2 but midway through the hour... closed early again for 28..pts.
In between this took 3 more incorrect trades didn't hold or wait... small losses and a small win

Overall I was very lucky not to have had a real disaster. Lost 46pts that day... balance 707

Friday went back to 1 and made a withdrawal for 200 in case I really lost it. 

So my stupid mind was still there just waiting to come out later that night... first trade good one sold gold but did i hold it no i closed for 20pts then i decided it was a good idea to buy in a freakin range down trend lost 40 pts so stupid cuz when a blow down bar stopped me out i could see sell signal all over the previous bar... I thought i should stop due to that act of stupidity... but i didn't. 

so i regrouped had a good think about what i had done for an hour... (charts off) saw an entry on WTI set up took the long... that was a win for 37... acc back to 506 after being in drawdown first time in weeks... 

so it's never far away... IMO i am just lucky the damage was so low.... *trading is all upstairs that's it *

watching GLD atm for a long set up to come along.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hey Barn,
> 
> yeh that tests you.... hard to watch a nice ent go sour... while your mind is yelling (flip flip flip- make money you cant lose!)
> 
> *Hey top stuff on the SPI trade, there were a few testing points before it dropped well done on holding your gut*.
> 
> Well I had some ballsups on Thursday and Friday... for whatever reason on Thursday night.. I decided it would be a good idea to double my trade size... well that was mistake #1
> 
> Mistake #2 decided to take a gold trade off a blow down move with a 50 cent plus stop... put it at 40 cents and GLD rallied right a way to test the high... I was so emotional due to the double risk i failed to see that real short set up... lost $86 on that trade.
> 
> Mistake #3trade ent was good but double size was not.. sold WTI this one worked out but i was thinking made worried about blowing through all my wins so i closed it early for 13 pts when it ended up doing what i thought it would and moving down 50 pts...
> 
> Mistake 4 took the Gold sell in mistake 2 but midway through the hour... closed early again for 28..pts.
> In between this took 3 more incorrect trades didn't hold or wait... small losses and a small win
> 
> Overall I was very lucky not to have had a real disaster. Lost 46pts that day... balance 707
> 
> Friday went back to 1 and made a withdrawal for 200 in case I really lost it.
> 
> So my stupid mind was still there just waiting to come out later that night... first trade good one sold gold but did i hold it no i closed for 20pts then i decided it was a good idea to buy in a freakin range down trend lost 40 pts so stupid cuz when a blow down bar stopped me out i could see sell signal all over the previous bar... I thought i should stop due to that act of stupidity... but i didn't.
> 
> so i regrouped had a good think about what i had done for an hour... (charts off) saw an entry on WTI set up took the long... that was a win for 37... acc back to 506 after being in drawdown first time in weeks...
> 
> so it's never far away... IMO i am just lucky the damage was so low.... *trading is all upstairs that's it *
> 
> watching GLD atm for a long set up to come along.




Happy to report mind is back to normal... traded very well tonight... after my first take 35 cents gold win i started stops to BE once 20 up was shown.. first wti hit my stop for +2 and i just took Profit of 10pts decent return to form tonight.

waited picked them stuck with them and held my gut while in them... most trades over 2 hours in hold. 

feeling a lot better but just have to keep it going. will be making one more with drawal this week and a new deposit to have the acc at 1K then moving to $2 a tick.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Well I had some ballsups on Thursday and Friday...
> Overall I was very lucky not to have had a real disaster. Lost 46pts that day... balance 707
> 
> Friday went back to 1 and made a withdrawal for 200 in case I really lost it.
> 
> So my stupid mind was still there just waiting to come out later that night... first trade good one sold gold but did i hold it no i closed for 20pts then i decided it was a good idea to buy in a freakin range down trend lost 40 pts so stupid cuz when a blow down bar stopped me out i could see sell signal all over the previous bar... I thought i should stop due to that act of stupidity... but i didn't.
> 
> so i regrouped had a good think about what i had done for an hour... (charts off) saw an entry on WTI set up took the long... that was a win for 37... acc back to 506 after being in drawdown first time in weeks...
> 
> so it's never far away... IMO i am just lucky the damage was so low.... *trading is all upstairs that's it .*



*

I know that self sabotage feeling well unfortunately, but recognising why the trades go wrong is half the battle. Definitely agree the mindset has to be in sync with the trading otherwise it feel like:1zhelp: 



>Apocalypto< said:



			Happy to report mind is back to normal... traded very well tonight... after my first take 35 cents gold win i started stops to BE once 20 up was shown.. first wti hit my stop for +2 and i just took Profit of 10pts decent return to form tonight.

waited picked them stuck with them and held my gut while in them... most trades over 2 hours in hold. 

feeling a lot better but just have to keep it going. will be making one more with drawal this week and a new deposit to have the acc at 1K then moving to $2 a tick.
		
Click to expand...



Good to get it back on track

Speaking of self sabotage ..... After a couple of good days, back to my bad habits tonight ..... Large draw down off the back of some poor Futs trades ... fortunately only on my small account so no real damage, but very frustrating doing the same dumb things when I should know better*


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Speaking of self sabotage ..... After a couple of good days, back to my bad habits tonight ..... Large draw down off the back of some poor Futs trades ... fortunately only on my small account so no real damage, but very frustrating doing the same dumb things when I should know better




Hey Barn....

Maybe (some of what i did) pick a couple markets and just follow them. I used to allow myself three trades in a session for me that was about 6-8 hours of market time. Write down your rules... in point form. Before you take trade tick off that it meets all your points. Only allowing three trades can force you to make them good... i did that for a while, really helped. i still go over my ent rules all the time

The set up you're looking for try to make it black and white. this why you can say no sorry that's not it... moving along now.

you will notice i use an ATR this is what its purpose is.. it's a instant yes or no. if it's pointing down no trade for me I only take a trade when the ATR is pointing up or at a flat point and about to go up. i try to use it as a volatility cycle. Then i tick off other rules. 

but sticking to one/2 markets on a sightly higher time frame might help. the plan was once i was ready to and had the cash to get back into a bigger acc 10K plus i would trade 2 min CL again but now with how the 1 hour is going.. i will be staying on that time frame. more points per win, less trades but it requires more discipline to wait for good set ups.  

not trying to push u anywhere or tell you what to do, i just find the smaller time frames very hard. the moment i moved up things got better. just rolling ideas... i know how bad it feels when u have a good few and throw it away with a bad one.

Plus thought Forums didn’t help me, in fact hindered me... but it’s a good place to be honest and vent.  The Good and bad.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> pick a couple markets and just follow them.
> 
> Write down your rules... in point form.
> 
> Before you take trade tick off that it meets all your points.
> 
> The set up you're looking for try to make it black and white.
> 
> more points per win, less trades but it requires more discipline to wait for good set ups.
> 
> the moment i moved up things got better  Forums didn’t help me, in fact hindered me....




Some good point there Joe .... I've condensed them down for reference. Cheers.


----------



## barney

Not posting too many live trades last couple of months  ...... however, Short SPI200 2 mini contracts as I type  ... Lets see how this pans out


----------



## cynic

On account of my fear of disruption to the friendly ambience of this thread, I was making a concerted effort to avoid posting. However, given that there's been no activity in the past month, I decided to take the risk and give it a bump.

I'm sure that I am not alone in missing the honesty and generosity of the contributors to this thread.

So c'mon ASFers, surely you've had at least one Forex related ballsup between you in the past month!!

Failing that, I would also consider reports of ballsed up ballsups (or in other words successes) to be beneficial.


----------



## Dean34

Hi Barney,
It's been 6 months since you started this thread. I love the concept. I'd love to know what benefits, and even pitfalls, you've encountered as a result.

Cheers


----------



## barney

Dean34 said:


> Hi Barney,
> It's been 6 months since you started this thread. I love the concept. I'd love to know what benefits, and even pitfalls, you've encountered as a result.
> 
> Cheers




Hi Dean,  and thanks Cynic for your interest

Even though I haven't posted much lately, I am still trading both FX and Index's on two trading accounts .... The Account related to this thread is only a 1K account and kind of a "test" account for some of my more outlandish discretionary ideas

Interestingly, since I started this thread, the 1K account has been fluctuating around break even for pretty much the whole time ...... This is actually a large step up from my previous attempts at trading FX where I basically lost money gradually (but consistently) over time

My other larger account has actually grown  reasonably well since I started this thread ... the reason being, I test my ideas on my 1K account, and when I get it wrong (often unfortunately), mainly due to bad entries etc,  I then go to my larger account and trade my way out of my ballsups .......

So in answer to your question, the main thing I have learned from this exercise/thread, is, as a learning retail trader ...... Start with small lot sizes, and "feel" your way into the market ..... By trading small to start, you are able to scale in much more effectively, and often turn a losing trade into a winner simply because you have not over leveraged your position too early!

Whether this is a good way to trade or not I'm not sure, but for me, considering I am simply not that good at picking short term tops and bottoms ..... scaling in with small lot sizes takes a lot of heat out of trading  ...... (i.e.trading without fear is a huge advantage

Cheers.


----------



## barney

barney said:


> I haven't posted much lately, .




Since I'm posting ... here is a discretionary trade I took earlier tonight  .....

The trade concept:- The EUR has been gaining some traction against the GBP over the last X amount of time, and the GBP/USD is starting to look a bit toppy .....

This technically may create some short term weakness in the GBP, so I have shorted both the GBP/USD and the GBP/CHF which is kind of a hedge in itself, so decimation is unlikely  ..... 

The trade is currently 15 pips in credit.


----------



## barney

Just before I closed the GBP/CHF position ....... Placed a Stop loss on the GBP/USD leg at a little better than break even  ...... Minimum of 30 pips all up even if that gets taken out  ..... One of my better efforts


----------



## barney

Just to finish that trade above off  ..... The GBP/USD leg was stopped out on a retrace as it turned off the 0.25% move for the day .... 

Net 11 pips + 29 pips on the GBP/CHF leg  ....... Be nice to do that everytime


----------



## Dean34

barney said:


> Hi Dean,  and thanks Cynic for your interest
> 
> Even though I haven't posted much lately, I am still trading both FX and Index's on two trading accounts .... The Account related to this thread is only a 1K account and kind of a "test" account for some of my more outlandish discretionary ideas
> 
> Interestingly, since I started this thread, the 1K account has been fluctuating around break even for pretty much the whole time ...... This is actually a large step up from my previous attempts at trading FX where I basically lost money gradually (but consistently) over time
> 
> My other larger account has actually grown  reasonably well since I started this thread ... the reason being, I test my ideas on my 1K account, and when I get it wrong (often unfortunately), mainly due to bad entries etc,  I then go to my larger account and trade my way out of my ballsups .......
> 
> So in answer to your question, the main thing I have learned from this exercise/thread, is, as a learning retail trader ...... Start with small lot sizes, and "feel" your way into the market ..... By trading small to start, you are able to scale in much more effectively, and often turn a losing trade into a winner simply because you have not over leveraged your position too early!
> 
> Whether this is a good way to trade or not I'm not sure, but for me, considering I am simply not that good at picking short term tops and bottoms ..... scaling in with small lot sizes takes a lot of heat out of trading  ...... (i.e.trading without fear is a huge advantage
> 
> Cheers.




I was reading through your thread and noticed something. You place a lot of emphasis on price technicals, and there's nothing wrong with that especially if part of your trading rules regard certain price indicators, but I was unable to really get a feel for your actual trading rules and plans for each trade once you entered. It seems to me that you are having a go at yourself for things that are completely out of your control (such as predicting the direction of price) whereas it may be worth thinking about writing down exactly what it is you plan to do once this or that happens after you enter the trade, seeing as these things are completely within your control, and seeing whether or not you can stick to them. It might just be that your system or trading style is not conducive to rigid plans but instead you play it by ear as the trade progresses, but I thought I'd just mention it.


----------



## barney

Dean34 said:


> I was reading through your thread and noticed something. You place a lot of emphasis on price technicals, and there's nothing wrong with that especially if part of your trading rules regard certain price indicators, but *I was unable to really get a feel for your actual trading rules and plans* for each trade once you entered. It seems to me that you are having a go at yourself for things that are completely out of your control (such as predicting the direction of price) whereas it may be worth thinking about writing down exactly what it is you plan to do once this or that happens after you enter the trade, seeing as these things are completely within your control, and seeing whether or not you can stick to them. It might just be that* your system or trading style is not conducive to rigid plans *but instead you play it by ear as the trade progresses, but I thought I'd just mention it.





Thanks for your input Dean ...... and yes you have nailed me to a tee

I trade totally discretionary (currently)  ... I have no rules other than gauging the current sentiment of the market when I log on (which can be at any time of the day)

I am a self taught musician and play 4 instruments (by ear)  It is in my nature to "fly by the seat of my pants" so to speak

Is this wise  when trading ...... no!

Does it teach you a lot in a hurry ...... for sure!

I have no illusions about my trading style  ... it is incorrect for 95% of people  ... This thread is about my small 1K account and "testing" some of my slightly odd ideas .... I fully expect not to make money on this account, but the lessons I have learned from it have helped increase my second tier  account immensely ... why/how??   

The best lesson I have learned from my mistakes on this thread .......... Wait for better entries ...... period!!!!   

Regardless of what anyone says, the most important part of becoming a successful trader is getting consistently GOOD ENTRIES!!   All the money management in the world will not save you from bad entries in the long run, in my opinion.

I suspect you have probably been through this phase if you are making consistent profits from FX  ..... I hope to get to that stage once I have gotten the "testing" phase out of my system

Cheers.


----------



## Dean34

barney said:


> I am a self taught musician and play 4 instruments (by ear)  It is in my nature to "fly by the seat of my pants" so to speak




Me too! Been playing guitar and keyboard for 28 years. Played bass guitar and the microphone in a band for 10 years also...what a riot!



barney said:


> I trade totally discretionary (currently) ... I have no rules other than gauging the current sentiment of the market when I log on (which can be at any time of the day)
> 
> The best lesson I have learned from my mistakes on this thread .......... Wait for better entries ...... period!!!!
> 
> Regardless of what anyone says, the most important part of becoming a successful trader is getting consistently GOOD ENTRIES!! All the money management in the world will not save you from bad entries in the long run, in my opinion.




Seeing as you use sentiment, then this will only get better with time I'm sure.


----------



## barney

Dean34 said:


> Me too! Been playing guitar and keyboard for 28 years. Played bass guitar *and the microphone* in a band for 10 years also...what a riot!
> 
> .




LOL  .............  Lead Vocals as well !!  ................ I'm impressed   ................ When/where were you kicking around?  .......... I was gigging in Sydney just before Midnight Oil and Cold Chisel became household names.   Supported both of them at the Stage Door Tavern .... the good old days!


----------



## Dean34

barney said:


> LOL  .............  Lead Vocals as well !!  ................ I'm impressed   ................ When/where were you kicking around?  .......... I was gigging in Sydney just before Midnight Oil and Cold Chisel became household names.   Supported both of them at the Stage Door Tavern .... the good old days!




lol..thanks..we started around the time pearl jam and nirvana came crashing on the scene, but we did everything from beatles, to acdc, to grunge, to sex pistols, to led zeppelin, to smashing pumpkins...we never supported any big acts but started writing our own stuff about midway through our time we were together..think from memory we split up in 2004 or maybe just before


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## barney

Dean34 said:


> lol..thanks..we started around the time pearl jam and nirvana came crashing on the scene, but we did everything from beatles, to acdc, to grunge, to sex pistols, to led zeppelin, to smashing pumpkins...we never supported any big acts but started writing our own stuff about midway through our time we were together..think from memory we split up in 2004 or maybe just before




Under normal circumstances I would have consider not derailing the thread with "non-pertinent" information ... but hell, I started the thread, so anything goes

You are obviously a fair bit younger than I am Deano, but music is the universal language and has no age boundaries.

The Band we first travelled to Sydney with from our country town was fortunate enough to have been writing/performing 70% original music to our "home" town peers at a young age.  Back then (in the dark ages), people were prepared to actually listen to the content of the music, and not expect it to sound like a fabricated CD playing on the local radio ...... The music scene was alive and inventive, and the punters were able to appreciate the content, even if at times the execution was less than perfect.  Unfortunately for the most part, those days are gone, which is a great pity.

People are often intolerant to Original music now days  ..... What they should realise; that every "popular" song they hear was once an original idea which no one had heard .......  Personally I still love anything original, even if its badly played and poorly produced ...... as long as it has content which conveys something about the writer it is worthy of attention.

In relation to trading, I think there are parallels with original music and finding  a workable trading style .....  TH (Trembling Hand) pointed out on many occasions  ...... find your "own" patterns when you look at a chart, prove to yourself that they work, and trade those patterns cause they are "yours"  .......  In his words ..... The "best" setups nearly always fail !    Smart man that TH  .... Hopefully he may drop in again down the track.


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## barney

Posting this one up as it may well be a Ballsup

Of course, I may also be a genius

It is a discretionary idea to hedge trade the Pound Aussie against the Euro Aussie based on the relative strength of the Euro Pound

Currently seeing short term strength in the Aussie with a weakening "retracement" in the EUR/GBP ....

The concept is to short the EUR/AUD and hedge with Longs on the GBP/AUD, depending on the position of the EUR/GBP (daily position)

Currently a few pips down, but that is the nature of a scale in trade  ... we shall see what eventuates


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Currently a few pips down, but that is the nature of a scale in trade  ... we shall see what eventuates





Trade went to plan .....

EUR/GBP continued to weaken (short term)

This kept the GBP/AUD treading water while the EUR/AUD Shorts gained some traction.

I added more positions to both the Pound longs and the Euro Shorts during the trade, depending on the position of the EUR/GBP in it's short term cycle ....

Closed all positions at just over 30 pip profit  ...... Biggest issue is not being able to Multi close positions in MT4 to take advantage of a favourable position/lessen the impact of a worsening position in quick time ..... Fortunately this time, I was able to close all positions prior to any negative reversal.

There was some early heat taken on the trade of around 17-19 pips (cumulative of all positions held) when the short term reversal spikes hit the EUR/GBP, but the scaling aspect of the trade negated any serious downside.   Certainly worth pursuing this "concept" a little further.


----------



## barney

Its not Forex and its not a Ballsup (for a change!) ..... One of only two Specs I own decided to treat me to a pleasant surprise today  ..... and its been a long time between drinks believe me

Very early days, but LSR has always had the hallmarks of a potential multi bagger from its recent lows  ..... today was a nice change of fortune after a very ordinary year of trading on my behalf   If it ever returns to 10 cents, I WILL shout the bar  lol  ......


----------



## Dean34

barney said:


> Under normal circumstances I would have consider not derailing the thread with "non-pertinent" information ... but hell, I started the thread, so anything goes
> 
> You are obviously a fair bit younger than I am Deano, but music is the universal language and has no age boundaries.
> 
> The Band we first travelled to Sydney with from our country town was fortunate enough to have been writing/performing 70% original music to our "home" town peers at a young age.  Back then (in the dark ages), people were prepared to actually listen to the content of the music, and not expect it to sound like a fabricated CD playing on the local radio ...... The music scene was alive and inventive, and the punters were able to appreciate the content, even if at times the execution was less than perfect.  Unfortunately for the most part, those days are gone, which is a great pity.
> 
> People are often intolerant to Original music now days  ..... What they should realise; that every "popular" song they hear was once an original idea which no one had heard .......  Personally I still love anything original, even if its badly played and poorly produced ...... as long as it has content which conveys something about the writer it is worthy of attention.
> 
> In relation to trading, I think there are parallels with original music and finding  a workable trading style .....  TH (Trembling Hand) pointed out on many occasions  ...... find your "own" patterns when you look at a chart, prove to yourself that they work, and trade those patterns cause they are "yours"  .......  In his words ..... The "best" setups nearly always fail !    Smart man that TH  .... Hopefully he may drop in again down the track.




In relation to trading (keeping on topic..lol) some people use their analytical side more, some their artistic side, and this may play a part too. Over the years I have managed to come to trust certain price patterns and how I deal with them.


----------



## barney

Dean34 said:


> In relation to trading (keeping on topic..lol) some people use their analytical side more, some their artistic side, and this may play a part too. Over the years I have managed to come to trust certain price patterns and how I deal with them.




Totally agree that certain patterns seem to give a more consistent "bang for the buck" result (analytical interpretation)  ....  

I think the best retail traders are likely those who can appreciate the nuances (artistic interpretation) behind "why" those "analysed" patterns work  ...... I could be totally deluded of course


----------



## Dean34

barney said:


> Totally agree that certain patterns seem to give a more consistent "bang for the buck" result (analytical interpretation)  ....
> 
> I think the best retail traders are likely those who can appreciate the nuances (artistic interpretation) behind "why" those "analysed" patterns work  ...... I could be totally deluded of course




Barney, Now we're getting into an area I love...the psychology of it all....I studied Elliot Wave intensely for years (I remember at this time I had got so sick of losing money I decided to stop trading for a while and just start studying anything trading related).

When learning elliot wave, it came across as a very objective interpretation of price behaviour...price 'will' do this after it does 'that', and if it does 'this', it can't do 'that', and so on....but it seemed to me that its objectivity comes from the subjective nature of the participants, like people are predictive, and that the student was going to have to realize at one point or another whether he's part of the subjective herd or actually an objective observer...one great teacher of the subject said that in the 90's it ran like clockwork..patterns would emerge on cue and one could trade them with ease prompting it to become a buzz in the trading community, but as the decade grew to an end it stopped acting this way and price patterns became complex....but I thought that maybe its overuse was what caused it to become complex...if the herd is usually wrong and if the herd had found this elliott wave to be the next buzz tool, then it shouldnt come as a surprise that it was no longer 'simple' to trade...

So being the nerd I am, in 2010 I started to a new project...I compiled all the biggest names, web sites, blogs etc who had a following of traders and predicted price using Elliot Wave...I followed them all intensively, their counts, drawing each count on the one chart to see where the counts converged and where they diverged, watching to see how may of them just followed the BIG names, and how many went their own paths.. that year I found 3 times when "ALL" those names, blogs etc had the "same count"...and each time price went in the direction that forced them all to have to change their count! They were the only times, when they all had the same counts, that they all had to change their counts.

I dont think thats a co-incidence, but, the most important thing I learned from this all was that price is going to go down the path of least resistance, whether trending or not.

How many times do we see spikes one way only to see it retrace all the other way, and then meander back to almost the extreme of the spike? How may stops got taken out in that? And if there weren't enough taken out, it will range some more. I see these patterns as not patterns that follow some technical or mechanical rule-set, but are the result of too many orders in too small an area, and it seems to be major S&R, especially at psychological prices, that attracts the crowd more than any other tool out there, and thats why I use it.


----------



## barney

Dean34 said:


> I dont think thats a co-incidence, but, the most important thing I learned from this all was that *price is going to go down the path of least resistance*, whether trending or not.
> 
> How many times do we see spikes one way only to see it retrace all the other way, and then meander back to almost the extreme of the spike? How may stops got taken out in that? And if there weren't enough taken out, it will range some more. I see these patterns as *not patterns that follow some technical or mechanical rule-set*, but are the result of too many orders in too small an area, and it seems to be major S&R, especially at psychological prices, that attracts the crowd more than any other tool out there, and thats why I use it.




Personally, I pretty much understand and appreciate everything you speak about in your posts Dean ... Unfortunately I would still consider myself well behind you in adapting that knowledge  into a profitable trading system, probably because I like to experiment too much ... i.e. The thrill is in the application of the ideas rather than the money   ...... 

I think anyone who tries to trade FX  needs to discover and come to grips with their own (personal) Demons  ..... Interestingly, I know when I am doing dumb stuff now days  ... but I still do dumb stuff  ....   

It seems to me that you have been able to recognise and come to grips with your Demons, and have formulated a workable system which suits your personality and is consistently profitable  .......   That is a personal Holy Grail, so well done!


----------



## Dean34

barney said:


> Personally, I pretty much understand and appreciate everything you speak about in your posts Dean ... Unfortunately I would still consider myself well behind you in adapting that knowledge  into a profitable trading system, probably because I like to experiment too much ... i.e. The thrill is in the application of the ideas rather than the money   ......
> 
> I think anyone who tries to trade FX  needs to discover and come to grips with their own (personal) Demons  ..... Interestingly, I know when I am doing dumb stuff now days  ... but I still do dumb stuff  ....
> 
> It seems to me that you have been able to recognise and come to grips with your Demons, and have formulated a workable system which suits your personality and is consistently profitable  .......   That is a personal Holy Grail, so well done!




I think you're a lot closer than you realize...your honest for one thing! And you've got a wise head on your shoulders. When you admit the thrill is in the application of ideas, is that really detrimental if it eventually becomes an idea you can trust? It's more like an investment. I just redefined success and it became easier to realize...that was how I defeated my demons...my demons were defining my success, not me...im sure you can do the same


----------



## barney

Dean34 said:


> I think you're a lot closer than you realize...your honest for one thing! And you've got a wise head on your shoulders. When you admit the thrill is in the application of ideas, is that really detrimental if it eventually becomes an idea you can trust? It's more like an investment. *I just redefined success and it became easier to realize*...that was how I defeated my demons...my demons were defining my success, not me...im sure you can do the same




As I said to Joe (Apocolypto) and Cogs earlier in the thread, the input from you guys has been/is very much appreciated.

Your plan of defining success with "realistic" and achievable goals (+ Compounding), is another good example of advice worth listening to


----------



## barney

Been in tune with the market this week for a pleasant change

Scaled into a short position on the Pound/USD  over the last few minutes which is showing potential to make a nice return even on my micro account  ...... Baby trades on this account, but making a good trade decision is a good thing on any account!!


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Scaled into a short position on the Pound/USD  over the last few minutes which is showing potential to make a nice return even on my micro account





Following up on that tack, I took a couple of micro shorts about a half hour ago on the GBP/USD  and will continue to look for valid shorts in the "short" term (poor pun, but I'm no Jim Carey!) 

Trade concept:-    

The EUR/GBP has been searching for a bottom for a long time   and looks like bouncing (short term) .... 

The EUR/USD still looks weak (short term) even though the EUR/GBP is showing indications that it might bounce.

Therefore  ... The GBP/USD should weaken at the appropriate moments

I have already closed the attached trade at over +20 pips (micro account so no big excitement , but its the process I'm interested in)

I will continue to look for Pound Shorts; maybe later tonight; maybe later this week,  if the EUR/GBP continues to show signs of bouncing (This is still short term stuff as the Euro still looks weak against the Pound mid term .... if that doesn't make sense, welcome to my world

PS. just as I was about to post this the GBP/USD dived ... so I could have netted another +20 pips had I run a trailing stop just outside the action  ..... I thought it was too early in the night for this to happen  .... wrong again


----------



## cynic

After having opened and funded an FX account almost one year ago, I received a courtesy call yesterday alerting me to the fact that I was about to be hit with an inactivity fee unless I placed a token trade.

So I decided that the best thing to do was bite the bullet and place my first ever FX trade. I placed a small position on AUD/USD and promptly closed it as soon as it went slightly in my favour.

Having made a grand total of two cents Australian on my first and only FX trade, I am now proudly boasting my 100% success rate.

Any future FX trades cannot enhance my 100% strike rate, but they could diminish it!

So I think I'll quit whilst I still have a faultless record.

P.S. I'm happy to show Joe the broker statement proving my 0.02c profit should any doubts regarding the authenticity of my claim be raised.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Having made a grand total of two cents Australian on my first and only FX trade, I am now proudly boasting my 100% success rate.
> 
> So I think I'll quit whilst I still have a faultless record.
> 
> P.S. I'm happy to show Joe the broker statement proving my 0.02c profit should any doubts regarding the authenticity of my claim be raised.




LOL .... You are way ahead of most Cynic!

ps. Your shout:alcohol:


----------



## barney

Just musing since Cynic prompted me to post  ....... My post 151 above stated a couple of things which I have bolded out below.  

My analysis last month was near perfect, almost picking the short term tops and bottoms of both Pairs within a few pips

Guess who sat on his hands for much of the month and missed one of the best monthly runs in ages ... Now that *IS* a Ballsup



barney said:


> I took a couple of micro shorts about a half hour ago on the GBP/USD  and *will continue to look for valid shorts in the "short" term *
> 
> Trade concept:-
> 
> *The EUR/GBP has been searching for a bottom for a long time   and looks like bouncing*(short term) ....
> 
> The EUR/USD still looks weak (short term) even though the EUR/GBP is showing indications that it might bounce.
> 
> Therefore  ... *The GBP/USD should weaken at the appropriate moments*
> 
> *I will continue to look for Pound Shorts; maybe later tonight; maybe later this week*,  if the EUR/GBP continues to show signs of bouncing (This is still short term stuff as the Euro still looks weak against the Pound mid term .... if that doesn't make sense, welcome to my world




The RED arrows show the exact place I suggested the GBP/USD was ready to go Short hunting and the EUR/GBP was close to finding a bottom  ............. Pity I don't listen to myself

The lesson from the above:-  Trust your analysis, then act on it ..... If trading intraday, keep an eye on the bigger picture at all times ....... Write your analysis down, and review it often ... etc. etc.


----------



## barney

Short term swing/scalp on the EUR/USD ...

Just added second scale in ..... target at the circle ...... 

Logic behind trade  ....... EUR a bit under powered at present particularly against the GBP, but the GBP is a bit lack lustre against the USD as well ...

Hence short term swing *against* the EUR/USD ........ 

Past the short term I am actually looking for Long entries on the EUR/USD maybe even late tonight if it tanks hard enough

See how it pans out


----------



## barney

Follow up .... Added a position on a retrace 


EUR still not out of the woods short term ... maybe


----------



## barney

EUR/GBP started to bottom (short term)

GBP/USD started to top (short term)

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth they say  .... closed out positions for 12 pips profit ... It looks like it will likely continue lower in the short term but happy to cut and run, as I have a SHORT running on the FTSE which may need attention


----------



## barney

FTSE SHORT mentioned above just closed  ... will be looking for more Shorts tonight depending on momentum across the board  ..... Been better tonight on the feel of the market  ... 

Some nights feel like diamonds ....


Some night feel like  ... Whoa!! LOL ...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

hi Barn how have you been going?

trading the wti and gld off the 1 hour has been challenging over the last several months. a lot of false signals coming around... fair few entries that have no real follow though. 

Started playing the 1min again for a bit of fun on the DAX...  did ok for 2 weeks but felt due to the speed of the info coming at you it's not going to work. I was right.. in one day took out 1.5 weeks gains. 

Now trading the DAX a lot off the 5 min only for the fist several hours on open. on open at 4pm the spread moves to two then by 5pm it's1 point. i normally start at 4:30 finish by 6:30-7pm. I tried trading after 7 till 1am but that didn't work out well. too many quiet patches that lead to ranges and chop outs. i found in the first few hours you will get that 1-2 trades that can give you 10-20points clear. sill work in progess but it's the same approach i use on the 1 hour to the 5min strong move pull back HL or LH with a trend break to confirm ent. 

Also looking at the Dow from 11pm but most night I'm happy to call it a day at 7pm 

still work in progress... two trades yesterday, both yellow circles first no idea why i took it just had a hunch would try the high... 2nd main ones i look for trend brake with trend first counter reversal.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> hi Barn how have you been going?
> 
> 
> Started playing the 1min again for a bit of fun on the DAX...  did ok for 2 weeks but felt due to the speed of the info coming at you it's not going to work. I was right.. *in one day took out 1.5 weeks gains*.
> 
> .





Yeah going Ok Joe ......  

M8 we must have a similar trading pattern.   Last week did something similar with one of my dumb "keep adding to a losing position" trades ..... That's one they don't teach in manual! Anyway, I also cleaned up all my previous weeks profits!

Was trading pretty well last night so went to my larger account to trade a bit bigger ...... I thought my crystal ball could pick the top of the FTSE for some reason .... That didn't end too well either!  



>Apocalypto< said:


> Also looking at the Dow from 11pm but most night I'm happy to call it a day at 7pm
> 
> still work in progress... two trades yesterday, both yellow circles first no idea why i took it just had a hunch would try the high... 2nd main ones i *look for trend brake with trend first counter reversal*.




Both ideas were logical ... I like the trend break trade

Cheers .... good to see you back.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Hi Barney,

a little feed back on my week that was on the 5 min set periods. 

Last week, 
Monday 30 points in two trades on the Dax made a further 5.16 points on the dow. was a top day 

Tuesday started with a 22 point loss, made it back with 28 points made another 4 points on top of that. didn't trade the dow. 

Wednesday lost it. terrible day mind was out of control... lost 54 points in 5 trades all in a row. then pulled some back 19 another 2 then dropped another 10 and finished with a 19 point winner first losing day of the week and just about ruined my whole week. didn't trade the dow that night called it a day.

Thursday abit of the same but milder. started with a 10 point loss then made back 27. Dow session, opened with a 9 point loss finished with 4 wins in a row 15.59 points. 

Friday still shaken, all over the place again. DAX started with three loses in a row 33 points down. made 21 back lost 10 made 4 lost 15 and lost another 6. week was at a loss now. Dow session made 20 lost 6 made 8.

so after a week of trading, what did i get out of this? +22.6. Dow on Friday saved the week or it would have been a loss. 

Monday was the perfect day not due to all winners but due to how i did it. waited held and managed. could not have done it better. Wednesday, the opposite rushed in closed chased did it all wrong. Thursday was a little better. but Friday imo was a close a disaster to Wednesday in terms of application. Dow trades saved my week, Friday.

Learned a lot last week. but with all the mistakes and stupid things i did i am happy i came out of it with a profit. written all the bad **** down i did taken it on board. 

this week up 16 points in three trades 2 on dax 1 on the dow. but to be honest i was lucky on the dax. one could have caught me. a bit hazed about those two trades. still not sure i deserved to win on them. the dow trade was good set up and trade but i didn't hold it mistake... ended up running 20od points. i look for 13-15 normally. 

GOLD OIL on 1 hour are shiit atm ranged out. not playing till a trend develops.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Barney,
> 
> a little feed back on my week that was on the 5 min set periods.
> 
> Last week,
> Monday 30 points in two trades on the Dax made a further 5.16 points on the dow. *was a top day *
> 
> *Tuesday started with a 22 point loss*, made it back with 28 points made another 4 points on top of that. didn't trade the dow.
> 
> *Wednesday lost it. terrible day mind was out of control*... lost 54 points in 5 trades all in a row. then pulled some back 19 another 2 then dropped another 10 and *finished with a 19 point winner *first losing day of the week and just about ruined my whole week. didn't trade the dow that night called it a day.
> 
> Thursday abit of *the same but milder*. started with a 10 point loss then made back 27. Dow session, opened with a 9 point loss finished with 4 wins in a row 15.59 points.
> 
> *Friday still shaken, all over the place again*. DAX started with three loses in a row 33 points down. made 21 back lost 10 made 4 lost 15 and lost another 6. week was at a loss now. Dow session made 20 lost 6 made 8.
> 
> so after a week of trading, what did i get out of this? *+22.6*. Dow on Friday saved the week or it would have been a loss.
> 
> Monday was the perfect day *not due to all winners but due to how i did it*. waited held and managed. *could not have done it better. Wednesday, the opposite *rushed in closed chased did it all wrong. Thursday was a little better. but Friday imo was a close a disaster to Wednesday in terms of application. Dow trades saved my week, Friday.
> 
> *Learned a lot last week. but with all the mistakes and stupid things i did i am happy i came out of it with a profit. written all the bad **** down i did taken it on board. *
> this week up 16 points in three trades 2 on dax 1 on the dow. but to be honest i was lucky on the dax. one could have caught me. a bit hazed about those two trades. still not sure i deserved to win on them. the dow trade was good set up and trade but i didn't hold it mistake... ended up running 20od points. i look for 13-15 normally.
> 
> GOLD OIL on 1 hour are shiit atm ranged out. not playing till a trend develops.





Thanks for the update Joe ...... I've Bolded a few things just to highlight the "roller coaster" effect

I always reckon if you feel like its been a struggle but you still end up in front, then things are likely on the right track.

Personally in a bit of a form slump at the moment, but still learning from the mistakes


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Thanks for the update Joe ...... I've Bolded a few things just to highlight the "roller coaster" effect
> 
> I always reckon if you feel like its been a struggle but you still end up in front, then things are likely on the right track.
> 
> Personally in a bit of a form slump at the moment, but still learning from the mistakes




take a week off. best thing to do or switch to demo and get it out of your system.

have you looked at much of al brooks Barn? i bought his ebook use a bit of it.... but now starting to get more and more into his work thinking of buying his course.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> *take a week off. best thing to do *or switch to demo and get it out of your system.
> 
> have you looked at much of al brooks Barn? i bought his ebook use a bit of it.... but now starting to get more and more into his work thinking of buying his course.





Lol ... I took one night off, then decided that was long enough 

You are dead right though; Just sitting around watching TV and not taking any losing trades for whatever period is good therapy.

I have watched a couple of Al Brooks internet videos, and yeah, I like the way he thinks ...... definitely worth watching for sure.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Lol ... I took one night off, then decided that was long enough
> 
> You are dead right though; Just sitting around watching TV and not taking any losing trades for whatever period is good therapy.
> 
> I have watched a couple of Al Brooks internet videos, and yeah, I like the way he thinks ...... definitely worth watching for sure.




hey Barn,

yeh it helps... normally i open a demo and go wild taking as many trades dumb trades for whatever reason to get that crap feeling out of the stomach 

like his work very detailed and thought out... i've given the dow away for now. concentrate on doing my 2 1/2 hours on the DAX better. 

Dax tonight,  sold a failed trand break rally... but got in a little late and it failed to push through the lows.. held it stopped out -6 points. bought it after a trend break gave me a inside bar. +10 points just bought again inside bar but i closed to bloody early as it stalled at the high... made 4 points but missed a heap refer the DAX atm 

so normal probs at hand emotions thinking to much caring about winning day turning sour. ect ect

took a few average ones on the dow last night week is just in profit atm. still pissed about a lot of trading this week but happy at this point two profitable weeks... (this one just atm, 4 points)

onwards and upwards..........


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> so normal probs at hand emotions thinking to much caring about winning day turning sour. ect ect
> 
> onwards and upwards..........





I hear what you are saying!!   .......  

Succeeding at trading is an interesting psychological journey  .... The Smilies say it all 

1) You have to believe you can do it 
2) You have to learn how to do it
3) You have to stop thinking about how you learned how to do it ... and just do it  ....


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Hi Barn been going over 1 hour WTI and Gold charts starting to apply AB to them. friday took two trades based of AB both went well so Friday ended up being a very nice one first in a while (75points) missed that gold sell this morning but in a dumb wti buy atm

misjudged the set a little but going to let it run out and take it on board as a lesson. range took a buy at the high when it wasn't really there.  still trading the 5min dax in that 2 -3 hour block. missed out yesterday as i was in transit to china... here for 14  days will be trading most days.



barney said:


> I hear what you are saying!!   .......
> 
> Succeeding at trading is an interesting psychological journey  .... The Smilies say it all
> 
> 1) You have to believe you can do it
> 2) You have to learn how to do it
> 3) You have to stop thinking about how you learned how to do it ... and just do it  ....


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> * took two trades based of AB both went well so Friday ended up being a very nice one first in a while (75points)*




Nice  ...... Post up a chart if you get a chance.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Hi Barn

Missed the DAX today so traded the US30 as it's 2 hours behind AUS here.

chart is attached.

The red line sell i didn't take the green lines are trades i did take.

Sell (Green line ) two high try fail L1 confirmed micro trend break, was risky to try and sell the support but i liked the two fail backing it up. made 12 points. 

Sell (red line) micro trend break fail L2, sell 1 tick under the close. in fast flow i sell or buy the close not the tail. 

Buy ( green line) two time fail on the tail low. bought one tick above the close. based on the tails before it, liked the idea of a counter at that point combined with H1 off the 2 low try fails. spinner (range bar) set up bar. made 5 points. 

got another on oil tonight +30 L1 trend break followed by a range bar (signal) sold the low of it. 

messed up two on gld lost 37 but made 1 back +30
gold loses where failed attempts to read H1 off support but it had two high fail which i missed. in a fast trend down. should have got the message after the first one. the win was a range bar / inside bar sold the low. 

can do up the wti and gold if you like. 

Fridays WTI 2 high that failed made a H1, could also be a micro trend break fail. 
GLD 2 high fail in a range/wedge that made an L1 i was in by then. might have been luck on that GLD sell.

I'm trying but still got work to do.



barney said:


> Nice  ...... Post up a chart if you get a chance.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Sell (Green line ) two high try fail L1 confirmed micro trend break, *was risky *to try and sell the support but i liked the two fail backing it up. made 12 points.




Some good stuff in that last post thanks Joe.

I think your "risky" entry was very good ..... the Dow often has a little fake push in the half hour of the pre open, so I reckon you nailed it perfectly!

PS. more posts on any of your trades would be excellent!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Some good stuff in that last post thanks Joe.
> 
> I think your "risky" entry was very good ..... the Dow often has a little fake push in the half hour of the pre open, so I reckon you nailed it perfectly!
> 
> PS. more posts on any of your trades would be excellent!




thanks Barn.

DAX was a complete disaster tonight. Thanks to Gold all the damage recouped.

Here's a live one for you see chart, as of now she's 25 min young. 

Sell, double high fail L1 in  wedge continuation pattern in the overall bear. If it fails and i'm stopped out looking at either a range, or a 2 leg up H1/H2 for a buy later tonight. 

Fraaking Great Fire wall of China is going mad tonight, took 5 min to get this far in ASF!


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Fraaking Great Fire wall of China is going mad tonight, took 5 min to get this far in ASF!




LOL ....  Gotta love technology



>Apocalypto< said:


> . If it fails and i'm stopped out looking at either a range, or a 2 leg up H1/H2 for a buy later tonight.




I assume a stop out on that one  ...... looked ok at face value  ..... Hindsight is a wonderful indicator of course  ... Now that it has taken your cash, the previous days sharp decline into new lows looked a short term trap ... Crystal Balls are what we all need!!


----------



## barney

EUR/GBP and AUD/USD both looking for daily bottoms  ......

Logic ... Short the GBP/AUD  (Short term trade)



Update  ..... closed B/E   .... (EUR/GBP had not bottomed!)


----------



## barney

No time to post charts at the moment ... The Euro is showing daily strength while the EUR/GBP is retracing upwards against the current downtrend ..... If the EUR/GBP tops out on the daily, the GBP/USD should follow the trend up  .... Currently scaling into Pound longs expecting a quick pop ...  see what develops.


----------



## barney

Last trade turned to crap ... Flipped it  ..... Short with tight stop on the GBP/USD  ..... Things can only get better


----------



## barney

Not posting too many trades up lately ... Trying to refine the machine gun style into a swinging strategy to improve the strike rate

This one looks ok at the moment  ..... small position size with wide initial stop.  

Simple strategy  ... The CAD/CHF is showing strength ... The USD/CHF is looking relatively weaker ...

Therefore Short the USD/CAD  ..... simple as A..B..D..  See how she pans out.


----------



## barney

Euro starting too move ... Scalp long ...


----------



## barney

Stop tightened on USD/CAD Short .....


----------



## barney

Started to wobble  USD/CAD Short closed  +23 ....  much better than a few of my others lately


EUR/USD long scalp also closed  +7


----------



## barney

DAX Short ..... In a bit early but got lucky 



Edit .. Closed ... +43 ... look for potential re-entry later if it pans out


----------



## barney

Short GBP/USD  ....... Looks short term "fake" ......


----------



## barney

Closed ... one of my better trades ...... 

Took a re-entry on the same trade .... being belted on that .. 

Took a "hedge" Short on the EUR/USD to ride out the EUR/GBP retrace ......... What was it TH said ... "Don't hedge ..ever!!" ...... 

Only playing for peanuts here, but still want to try and save this last leg .......   USD looks a bit stronger than the others so might get a final move down on either the GBP or EUR to salvage the trade.


edit ... Closed both Short legs on the Pound and Euro  ... Loss 22 pips .. crap trade ...... Good thing is since the close both moved way further against me so good timing on the exit at least


----------



## barney

barney said:


> edit ... Closed both Short legs on the Pound and Euro  ... Loss 22 pips .. crap trade ...... Good thing is since the close both moved way further against me so good timing on the exit at least





Bad hedge position closed as previous post .....


----------



## barney

I screwed up a lot of trades tonight getting whipsawed into oblivion trying to trade  one minute charts without using any common sense ..... Minus 180 pips at that point

I left the room, went to the dunny, practiced my ever increasing Forex induced vocabulary of expletives, made a cup of milo, went back to the Charts and finally got in tune with what was going on.

I took two mini EUR/USD short positions initially as the Euro looked a bit weak .... When the EUR/GBP started to weaken from the top and the GBP/USD didn't follow complementary suit to the upside, that meant the USD was the stronger currency (short term) ....

Took another two quick short positions on the EUR/USD just as it started to roll over ..... Covered the previous 180 pip loss plus added another 100 pips all in under 15 minutes  ....... Happy to cover the bad trades but still annoyed at the initial poor trading ... should know better by now!

Anyway ... one of my best efforts for some time ... Quick decisions made without hesitation and in tune with the market sentiment. (added second image for clarity)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

hi Barn,

you sold the NFPs tonight! well done never easy to forecast. good on you for making it back it's a nice feeling.

TBH, i have also had a roller coaster week. mixing 1 hour fx with 5min dax and dow on IC. 

made some great trades and some terrible ones. last two days getting somewhere on the 5 min indices fx has been hard work. 

apart from a few dumb fx trades last night and a bad entry on the FTSE tonight de30 and dow have been spot on last 2 days. dax was off tonight german bank holiday so thought i would look at the FTSE as pav is making a killing on it. too slow and quiet for my liking. 

attached is a chart of the week think you can see the swings.... mentally testing once this week. still using a few AB set ups but more adaption of my 1 hour momentum trading on the 5 min.

2 weeks of profits now in a row on 95% due to the 5 min DAX & DOW. remember daylight saving starts this weekend. 

i'm out week over for me.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> hi Barn,
> 
> you sold the NFPs tonight! well done never easy to forecast. good on you for making it back it's a nice feeling.
> 
> TBH, i have also had a roller coaster week. mixing 1 hour fx with 5min dax and dow on IC.
> 
> made some great trades and some terrible ones. last two days getting somewhere on the 5 min indices fx has been hard work.
> 
> apart from a few dumb fx trades last night and a bad entry on the FTSE tonight de30 and dow have been spot on last 2 days. dax was off tonight german bank holiday so thought i would look at the FTSE as pav is making a killing on it. too slow and quiet for my liking.
> 
> attached is a chart of the week think you can see the swings.... mentally testing once this week. still using a few AB set ups but more adaption of my 1 hour momentum trading on the 5 min.
> 
> 2 weeks of profits now in a row on 95% due to the 5 min DAX & DOW. remember daylight saving starts this weekend.
> 
> i'm out week over for me.




Hey Joe,

Yeah I know that roller coaster feeling well  I think treading water is not bad though as long as there is mental progress.

NFP was a strong result. The USD has been on a bender all night. 

If you save any screenshots, throw up a couple more charts/trades if you get a chance.  Any of the Dax or Dow would be good


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> ...apart from a few dumb fx trades last night and a bad entry on the FTSE tonight de30 and dow have been spot on last 2 days. dax was off tonight german bank holiday so thought i would look at the FTSE as pav is making a killing on it. too slow and quiet for my liking.
> ...




I just completed my first few trades for the quarter on the FTSE this week, and I must confess that other indices are boringly slow and difficult to adjust to after trading the demonic DAX.

On the subject of ballsups, I think I may have made my first one on a forex account I opened just last month. Fortunately I was only trading miniscule position sizes on their Germany 30 product (0.1 EUR per point). 

The last position opened was a short that narrowly missed its profit target, but was still a few points in profit when I checked on it during the wee early hours of friday morning. 

Not realising that there was a holiday in Germany that would render me unable to trade again until monday, I chose to leave the position open!!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

cynic said:


> Not realising that there was a holiday in Germany that would render me unable to trade again until monday, I chose to leave the position open!!!




Surely it will be okay with the way the US finished though? Should gap higher....as long as there is no bad news over the weekend that is.


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Surely it will be okay with the way the US finished though? Should gap higher....as long as there is no bad news over the weekend that is.




It's a short position! If it weren't so small, I'd be praying for bad news!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

cynic said:


> It's a short position! If it weren't so small, I'd be praying for bad news!!




Oh bugger


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Oh bugger




Bugger indeed



cynic said:


> It's a short position! If it weren't so small, I'd be praying for bad news!!




Hi Cynic ..... Your unfortunate example is what this thread is all about ... the good the bad and the ugly

Now that you are in that position, do you have an escape plan?

ie. Chances are the Dax will gap up substantially against you  .. Do you close at the open; do you wait; how long do you wait; if you wait and it continues against you do you close or flip; what if you flip and then it starts to retrace back against you; Should you have hedged your position with a Long on another Index showing strength yesterday etc etc.

Myriad of possibilities, and the fact that you will be under duress makes it hard to think rationally (that's my experience anyway)

I would never be presumptuous to give anyone advice, but I have found that having a game plan in these situations makes it easier ... ie. Before the Dax opens, know at what levels you will close, or flip or add, or anything else ... Even if you plan turns out to be  a bad or losing plan, at least you have a plan that you have rationally considered.

Let us know how it pans out ...   Cheers.


----------



## cynic

Barney and Thingy, thanks for your interest. 

Yes! Like many experienced traders, my escape plan was formulated prior to deployment of this particular trading strategy.

The escape hatch involves hedging with a correlated instrument, if (or when) my accumulated exposure of short trades amounts to a whole euro per point (i.e. ten open short trades). Until that time I'll tolerate the exposure and patiently await the next downswing. (The DAX has not only proven itself quite dependable in that regard, it also displays a propensity for gap filling.)
However, in order to fulfill this, one needs to manage the resultant drawdown.

The fact that this trade will likely be a hundred points (or more) against me when the market reopens isn't the cause of my annoyance. I've had a sensational time trading this account since I opened it just last month. I've already withdrawn my initial capital and am now only trading with the profits.

At 0.10 Euros per point the DAX would need to break its historical high by over three thousand points before that particular trade could jeopardise my account! As it happens, this trade is the only thing currently threatening my account's 100% strike rate.

At this point some readers may be tempted to chastise me for placing undue emphasis on the strike rate, to which I would normally agree!

Please note that my attraction to this fanciful notion is not driven by my desire for superior financial performance. A slight reduction in profit performance is ample compensation for the other benefits I'm experiencing from achieving a killer strike rate.

Most importantly, in keeping this stubborn trade open, I've adhered to my original trading plan!!


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> if (or when) my accumulated exposure of short trades amounts to a whole euro per point (i.e. ten open short trades). Until that time I'll tolerate the exposure and patiently await the next downswing.




All good .......

Out of curiosity, do you have a pre-set level at which you will scale into more shorts (ie. A specific Tick value, or a predetermined percentage of the Index value/Range etc.), or is it a totally discretionary decision on a day to day basis?


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> All good .......
> 
> Out of curiosity, do you have a pre-set level at which you will scale into more shorts (ie. A specific Tick value, or a predetermined percentage of the Index value/Range etc.), or is it a totally discretionary decision on a day to day basis?




Without wishing to be too specific, this particular system usually involves entering/exiting trades after a set number of ticks above/below the previous trade's entry/exit.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Without wishing to be too specific, this particular system usually involves entering/exiting trades after a set number of ticks above/below the previous trade's entry/exit.





OK thanks ...... keep us posted on the trade's progress/outcome if you can.


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> OK thanks ...... keep us posted on the trade's progress/outcome if you can.




Rain, hail or shine, I'm more than happy to keep everyone posted on further developments.

One point that I neglected to mention earlier is that there is a bit more to the story of how I came to be trading this particular strategy, on this particular account, with this particular forex broker. 

During the first week I managed to complete 64 trades, many of which were somewhat discretionary in nature and were motivated by a desire to profit in an entirely different manner.
For the present, I'll omit the tedious details of what I mean by this, however, I think I should mention that the first week's trading of that particular account featured 64 semi-discretionary trades, the proceeds of which represent just a little over 50% of the account's current balance. The subsequent 245 systematic trades (performed during the past fortnight and a bit) account for the residual (nearly 50%) balance of the account.

Edit: I forgot to mention that I was so delighted by the overall performance of the broker's product and platform during that first week, that I decided to brush the dust off an old SPI daytrading strategy, and adapt it to trading their Germany 30 product.

Although the majority of the trades are opened and completed during a single session, it can no longer be described as a true daytrading strategy, given it has now been slightly modified to allow exposure to carry over into future days.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> If you save any screenshots, throw up a couple more charts/trades if you get a chance.  Any of the Dax or Dow would be good




Hi Barn,

Chart has two trades. red for the sell and green for the buy. Both break out momentum trades that broke trend lines. just waited for further highs to confirm the moves as happening. normally i just trade first 2 hours after london open on the DAX and 1 hour on dow from when the spreads move to 1 point. was 11:30-12:30pm

slowly getting ready for this evenings DAX session. :robot2:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> I just completed my first few trades for the quarter on the FTSE this week, and I must confess that other indices are boringly slow and difficult to adjust to after trading the demonic DAX.
> 
> On the subject of ballsups, I think I may have made my first one on a forex account I opened just last month. Fortunately I was only trading miniscule position sizes on their Germany 30 product (0.1 EUR per point).
> 
> The last position opened was a short that narrowly missed its profit target, but was still a few points in profit when I checked on it during the wee early hours of friday morning.
> 
> Not realising that there was a holiday in Germany that would render me unable to trade again until monday, I chose to leave the position open!!!




The DAX is wild one... for me i need it.. FTSE looks a lot cleaner though.

I see the DAX opened a little higher this morning hope you got out with out too much damage. I never hold any trades over the weekend. unless i took it on a daily time frame. 

will you be trading the dax tonight?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

today opened two longer term FX trades off the daily. 

AUDUSD made the papers about how low it is. minor double bottom. I have a buy
USDJPY double top NFP rally failed to make a new high. Have a sell

stop 65 pips on both


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> The DAX is wild one... for me i need it.. FTSE looks a lot cleaner though.
> 
> I see the DAX opened a little higher this morning hope you got out with out too much damage. I never hold any trades over the weekend. unless i took it on a daily time frame.



Still riding it! It just opened approximately 100 points against me! At 0.10 Euros per point it's created a massive 10 euro dent in my account! (Loving these micronised lot sizes.)



> will you be trading the dax tonight?



Abso-DAXING-lutely!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> Still riding it! It just opened approximately 100 points against me! At 0.10 Euros per point it's created a massive 10 euro dent in my account! (Loving these micronised lot sizes.)
> 
> 
> Abso-DAXING-lutely!




they help offset the pain. nice to hear it's not to bad.

atm i am trading 1.40ish aud a point. 

bit of a rally on the EURO hour.... still how it goes once the Londoners are in play.


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> atm i am trading 1.40ish aud a point.



 Yes! You're trading at exactly 10X my individual trade size.

This particular account is also based in AUD and quoting "Per Pip:0.14". This is quite amusing, given that it's not a currency pair, (but then again what is one to expect from a forex broker?!)

I prefer to think in EUROs until after the trade is settled. It helps me keep my mind habitually aligned with my other DAX trading activities on my EURO denominated CFD accounts.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Barn,
> 
> Chart has two trades. red for the sell and green for the buy. Both break out momentum trades that broke trend lines. just waited for further highs to confirm the moves as happening. normally i just trade first 2 hours after london open on the DAX and 1 hour on dow from when the spreads move to 1 point. was 11:30-12:30pm
> 
> slowly getting ready for this evenings DAX session. :robot2:




Looks like you snagged a few points on either side   I find breakouts hard work most of the time, unless its a run away FX trade.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> today opened two longer term FX trades off the daily.
> 
> AUDUSD made the papers about how low it is. minor double bottom. I have a buy
> USDJPY double top NFP rally failed to make a new high. Have a sell
> 
> stop 65 pips on both





What's your initial target area on the USDJPY Joe ...... Last week's low or Friday's low?


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> (but then again what is one to expect from a forex broker?!)




0.01  ... Are you with FXCM Cynic?


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> ...Until that time I'll tolerate the exposure and patiently await the next downswing. (The DAX has not only proven itself quite dependable in that regard, it also displays a propensity for gap filling.)
> However, in order to fulfill this, one needs to manage the resultant drawdown.
> 
> The fact that this trade will likely be a hundred points (or more) against me when the market reopens isn't the cause of my annoyance...






cynic said:


> Rain, hail or shine, I'm more than happy to keep everyone posted on further developments...






cynic said:


> Still riding it! It just opened approximately 100 points against me! At 0.10 Euros per point it's created a massive 10 euro dent in my account! (Loving these micronised lot sizes.)...




Although that pesky trade was heavily rained and hailed upon at open, the sun finally shone at 1:50AM AEDST when it closed after achieving its original profit target.

I happened to make two other ballsups yesterday evening. 
I unintentionally opened a surplus trade and also entered an incorrect level in another order resulting in a trade not triggering. 
Usually the DAX is quick to condemn such mistakes, however, on this occasion, by the time I realised that I'd erred, the market had already moved in a favourable manner enabling me to capture an extra 6 points whilst rectifying these errors. I wish all of my ballsups could be so benign! 


barney said:


> 0.01  ... Are you with FXCM Cynic?




Whilst I wouldn't exactly describe myself as being with FXCM , the DAX trades I'm discussing on this thread have been placed with an FXCM account which I opened last month. (The bulk of my more serious CFD trading remains with City Index.)

Please note that there's a little bit more to the story behind my decision to open this account with FXCM.

I was expecting to profit indirectly from my trading activities pursuant to a particular agreement between one of FXCM's business partners and myself. I'll be posting further details about this at a later date.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Looks like you snagged a few points on either side   I find breakouts hard work most of the time, unless its a run away FX trade.




Hi Barn,

yep that's how i play them. took 14 pts last night. dow session was a non event. one tight stop cost me then reentered and made it back. called it a day after that. reason i like the dax is it normally has follow through. also looking at WTI for the same trade ideas. I am out of FX on short term. really just concentrating on DAX atm.

IC Markets have dropped WTI...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> What's your initial target area on the USDJPY Joe ...... Last week's low or Friday's low?




already closed both Barn. where tiny positions. made a little bit.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Barn,
> 
> yep that's how i play them. took 14 pts last night. dow session was a non event. one tight stop cost me then reentered and made it back. called it a day after that. reason i like the dax is it normally has follow through. also looking at WTI for the same trade ideas. I am out of FX on short term. really just concentrating on DAX atm.
> 
> IC Markets have dropped WTI...




Yeah totally understand your switch away from FX; it really can wear you down at times.  

IC closing the WTI is interesting ..... any ideas why?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Yeah totally understand your switch away from FX; it really can wear you down at times.
> 
> IC closing the WTI is interesting ..... any ideas why?




still look at it on the daily... but found cant control myself with it as well as other markets. Plus i find i sit on the comp all day while trading it on 1 hour or under. 

good thing about the DE and DOW is you just look at it a set amount of time during the day. 

I would say Barn they're not making enough money. so out they go.

today three up on the Dax but still have a massive issue with holding open trades for more profit. this is my main issue atm. taking the night off on the Dow.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

finally held one Barn... caught 20 on a dow buy. did drop 8 on a sell. slowly, slowly.


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> ...I am out of FX on short term. really just concentrating on DAX atm.
> ...



After witnessing the tortuous time a friend of mine had trading FX, I believe I can understand where you're coming from.

On the subject of the DAX, I've had another busy night. At this point I'm onto trades # 25 and 26 (one ITM, the other OTM).

Edit: Both short positions and now both OTM.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> After witnessing the tortuous time a friend of mine had trading FX, I believe I can understand where you're coming from.
> 
> On the subject of the DAX, I've had another busy night. At this point I'm onto trades # 25 and 26 (one ITM, the other OTM).
> 
> Edit: Both short positions and now both OTM.




Another 2 scores on the board.

Trade # 27 open - another short and currently OTM!

Edit: Another one in the bag!

Trade # 28 open - you guessed it!! Another short position currently OTM!


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> finally held one Barn... caught 20 on a dow buy. did drop 8 on a sell. slowly, slowly.




Nice counter punch there


Took a few trades earlier tonight  ... sitting on my hands since then just watching the gyrations.

This one on the CAC about an hour and a half into the open was my best effort .... After the 26 tick Dip then 0.5% reversal, the test of the double top failed so Short 1  ... 

Bit early (or late depending on which pair of glasses I had on) on the first entry (took just under 4 ticks of heat for a couple of minutes. It weakened again so I doubled up ... Closed out after a quick 10 points on both legs. 

Only the "training" account so I won't be retiring on the profits, but a better effort ..... all about the process at this stage.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Another 2 scores on the board.
> 
> Trade # 27 open - another short and currently OTM!
> 
> Edit: Another one in the bag!
> 
> Trade # 28 open - you guessed it!! Another short position currently OTM!




You sound like you're having fun Cynic

Dax has certainly been weak last couple of weeks ...


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> You sound like you're having fun Cynic
> 
> Dax has certainly been weak last couple of weeks ...




Yes! The Achilles heel of this strategy will be the sudden recovery. Sooner or later (preferably later) I will get caught short!!

Edit: Trade 28 succeeded but now caught on #'s 29 and 30!


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Yes! The Achilles heel of this strategy will be the sudden recovery. Sooner or later (preferably later) I will get caught short!!
> 
> Edit: Trade 28 succeeded but now caught on #'s 29 and 30!




#'s 29 & 30 now banked , nothing left open and no ballsups to report. All in all, a very good night! So good night for now and I'll see you all next evening!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> After witnessing the tortuous time a friend of mine had trading FX, I believe I can understand where you're coming from.
> 
> On the subject of the DAX, I've had another busy night. At this point I'm onto trades # 25 and 26 (one ITM, the other OTM).
> 
> Edit: Both short positions and now both OTM.




FX is good but for me personally i found more consistent success away from it. but at the end of the day it's all upstairs 90% of the time, no matter what you play on.

The DAX is so scary but also so much fun. i used to think OIL was a love hater but yeh the DAX can really test u. keep posting up your adventures.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Nice counter punch there
> 
> 
> Took a few trades earlier tonight  ... sitting on my hands since then just watching the gyrations.
> 
> This one on the CAC about an hour and a half into the open was my best effort .... After the 26 tick Dip then 0.5% reversal, the test of the double top failed so Short 1  ...
> 
> Bit early (or late depending on which pair of glasses I had on) on the first entry (took just under 4 ticks of heat for a couple of minutes. It weakened again so I doubled up ... Closed out after a quick 10 points on both legs.
> 
> Only the "training" account so I won't be retiring on the profits, but a better effort ..... all about the process at this stage.




some nice trades there. well done.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

EURO Hour sitting on my hands atm... have been taking some trades in it but normally wait for LON open.

always exciting preparing for the session.


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> ...
> The DAX is so scary but also so much fun. i used to think OIL was a love hater but yeh the DAX can really test u. keep posting up your adventures.



It most certainly is! (Preaching to the choir). 

Now onto trade #'s 6 & 7 - currently threatening the day's profit (several points down overall as I type).

Edit: Now 30 points down and building!


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> ...
> Now onto trade #'s 6 & 7 - currently threatening the day's profit (several points down overall as I type).
> 
> Edit: Now 30 points down and building!




Trades 6 & 7 still stuck, but managed to complete trade number 8 and am now slightly in profit for the day.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Good Stuff Cynic,

I got caught out on a buy entry. was a decent size hit for my acc size.. anyway got out of it for positive day. but i still have the same issue of not holding long enough on my winners. could have had a solid day to day if i can get over this. 

I personally feel I'm scared of the DAX. i took some really mean beat downs when first started to trade on it. Think it's in my subconscious now. Think i'm done for the day... take some time out to the us session starts.

Todays trades posted below.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Trades 6 & 7 still stuck, but managed to complete trade number 8 and am now slightly in profit for the day.




I have always considered that trading within ones comfort zone makes for better trading ... Your current small position sizing on this account seems to be confirming that Cynic.



>Apocalypto< said:


> I personally feel I'm scared of the DAX. i took some really mean beat downs when first started to trade on it. Think it's in my subconscious now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 59742




I totally understand that feeling Joe  ... I wonder whether some of the professional traders on ASF could lend some insight on how this "fear" can be overcome  .... Obviously you have been trading for a long time yet still have these doubts  ......  How do we unlearn the fear and embrace the risk .... paper trading doesn't fix it!  Simulation trading doesn't fix it!   ... My own personal experience is to simply throw caution to the wind and try things which look slightly dodgy (on a small but real account), and weed out the good from the bad ideas ...... I have learned a lot from this, but still don't have the confidence to commit anything more than modest sums of cash to my ideas.  Hats off to Pav in the sense that he has found positive expectancy in a short space of time!  ...... Hints welcomed from those who have already found the lightbulb??


----------



## barney

Just on throwing caution to the wind and trying things as I mentioned in the last post ...... here is a real trade I took about half hour ago .....

The logic (if it is logic)  ... The DAX has been belted unceremoniously over the last two weeks; The CAC has also been belted but on a much less % basis  ....

My thinking on looking at the price action tonight  .. The DAX looked like bottoming and the CAC looked less convincing   .....  Therefore, if the market rises off these current lows, the DAX is likely to rise with more velocity than the CAC

Hence  ......  Buy the DAX ... Short the CAC  .........   No back testing to confirm or support this; just a gut feel  ..... will see what pans out


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Hence  ......  Buy the DAX ... Short the CAC  .........   No back testing to confirm or support this; just a gut feel  ..... will see what pans out





Position closed ........ DAX + 38  ..... CAC minus 24  .....

Nothing definitive gained from that .... both markets were trending upwards so obviously the higher ratio Index percentage on the DAX worked in my favour ....... Had it trended down I would likely have been in debit, albeit hedged against anything real nasty.   Food for thought though.


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> I have always considered that trading within ones comfort zone makes for better trading ... Your current small position sizing on this account seems to be confirming that Cynic.




+1

The only downside to miniscule positions is that the financial reward is equally miniscule. I've managed to double my (somewhat trivial) account balance in just a little over two weeks.

I seldom achieve such high percentage returns when trading larger position sizes.

So far tonight, 19 trades :- 17 completed and 2 presently open.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> +1
> 
> The only downside to miniscule positions is that the financial reward is equally miniscule. I've managed to double my (somewhat trivial) account balance in just a little over two weeks.





Its interesting that as soon as we start adding zeros to our lot sizes that it suddenly becomes difficult 

Its also interesting that if you doubled a $250 account 10 times in succession you would have over a quarter of a million dollars  ....


----------



## Jens

barney said:


> Its interesting that as soon as we start adding zeros to our lot sizes that it suddenly becomes difficult
> 
> Its also interesting that if you doubled a $250 account 10 times in succession you would have over a quarter of a million dollars  ....




I think the opportunity to double our accounts over and over is what keeps us going


----------



## >Apocalypto<

very interesting trade you took Barn... well done... but always keep in mind the DAX will move deeper then the CAC...

I hope it will pass in time... the DAX really did some damage to me a few times on its swings. 

caught a bit of the dow open rally... that's it for me.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Jens said:


> I think the opportunity to double our accounts over and over is what keeps us going




personally i think doing in on tiny accounts is ok but once you are using a decent amount it's something that should be a major warning.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> very interesting trade you took Barn... well done... but always keep in mind *the DAX will move deeper then the CAC...*I hope it will pass in time... the DAX really did some damage to me a few times on its swings.
> 
> caught a bit of the dow open rally... that's it for me.





Yeah true ...... The trade was a kind of semi baked attempt at picking the short term direction of the Dax with a hedge/reverse trade on the CAC .....  

If I'd gotten the DAX side wrong it wouldn't have worked, although having the hedge initially let me enter the trade earlier than I would with just a one way ticket on the DAX, so for someone like me who struggles with entries it might have some use 

A better pair would probably be the CAC + FTSE as their Index value is closer, although that would also negate the value in the bias of the trade.

The above idea is probably more suited to trading the  EUR against the GBP as they are fairly correlated but also often out of rotation with each other .... still working on that one but finding some interesting stats.


----------



## barney

Jens said:


> I think the opportunity to double our accounts over and over is what keeps us going



Welcome Jens  ..... feel free to throw in some trades if you like.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Yes! The Achilles heel of this strategy will be the sudden recovery. Sooner or later ...(preferably later) I will get caught short!!
> ...




Well it had to happen eventually! Trade #'s 30,31,33 and 34 all caught!!

If they can find another half dozen shorts to share in their misery, it'll be time for deployment of the hedging component of this strategy!

Stay tuned for further updates on this exciting development!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Yeah true ...... The trade was a kind of semi baked attempt at picking the short term direction of the Dax with a hedge/reverse trade on the CAC .....
> 
> If I'd gotten the DAX side wrong it wouldn't have worked, although having the hedge initially let me enter the trade earlier than I would with just a one way ticket on the DAX, so for someone like me who struggles with entries it might have some use
> 
> A better pair would probably be the CAC + FTSE as their Index value is closer, although that would also negate the value in the bias of the trade.
> 
> The above idea is probably more suited to trading the  EUR against the GBP as they are fairly correlated but also often out of rotation with each other .... still working on that one but finding some interesting stats.




 on the profit... i used take a few on the CAC but i would fall a sleep waiting for it to do something.  end of the day you made a right call. but you're right on the reverse CAC normally is playing catch up... that being said.. the Dow atm is the hard one. swinging 16-20+ points on open yesterday. I have noticed for a while now the DOW has some serious run in it. Also a can be cleaner then the DAX. 

agree FTSE and CAC better pair. personally i have never understood and really tried hedging trades. alot use it. i never got it. 

Just took a trade on the HK50 like the look of it but the 8 point spread is the issue trading it for me. think there a market you would need a real futures account for. When i had my IB account i traded the KOPSI a few times... that's a hair raiser. just bangs up or down.

keep tiring things...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Welcome Jens  ..... feel free to throw in some trades if you like.




Plus 2 Jens


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> ... i used take a few on the CAC but i would fall a sleep waiting for it to do something.
> 
> . the Dow atm is the hard one. swinging 16-20+ points on open yesterday. I have noticed for a while now the DOW has some serious run in it. Also a can be cleaner then the DAX.
> 
> agree FTSE and CAC better pair. personally i have never understood and really tried hedging trades. alot use it. i never got it.




Lol re the CAC  ......  it's been moving around a lot more lately.  Only 4000 tick Index but its way better than the SPI. 

Yeah if you can snag a runner on the Dow it can be   I can vaguely remember what that feels like


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Lol re the CAC  ......  it's been moving around a lot more lately.  Only 4000 tick Index but its way better than the SPI.
> 
> Yeah if you can snag a runner on the Dow it can be   I can vaguely remember what that feels like




just got to stay up to late to trade it now with DS....

DAX open has been horrible. hope now one was try to sell lows or buy highs some evil counter runs.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Well it had to happen eventually! Trade #'s 30,31,33 and 34 all caught!!




Just managed to close 1 of the caught shorts! (1 down, another 3 to go!)

A very slow evening - only 1 trade completed thus far.

Edit: Trade #2 for the night opened as I was posting.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Just managed to close 1 of the caught shorts! (1 down, another 3 to go!)
> 
> A very slow evening - only 1 trade completed thus far.
> 
> Edit: Trade #2 for the night opened as I was posting.




Gap fill to the rescue!!

(2 down 2 to go!)

Trade #'s 1 & 2 for the night now closed. # 3 just opened.

Edit: #3 just closed.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> just got to stay up to late to trade it now with DS....
> 
> DAX open has been horrible. hope now one was try to sell lows or buy highs some evil counter runs.




The first 2-3 hours of the Dax is always hard to nail I reckon ...... sometimes easier to pick it when the Dow preopen starts to take shape  ..... only sometimes



cynic said:


> Gap fill to the rescue!!




Just about to say you should be out of trouble now

The last run down on the CAC also got me out of jail for the night after I stuffed up a few earlier


----------



## barney

Just for my own records ......

Amongst a lot of good trades, I made a couple of very ordinary trades tonight which wiped out all my winners plus some .....

What I did wrong ...... I took a hedge position instead of setting a stop loss when I went to have dinner. The position went against me and cost me 19 ticks ..... no big deal on my test account, but still not good trading.

Got out of jail on the trade below, but even then I started thinking impulsively when the first position went immediately against me for a minute or so  .... can't afford to be impulsive!!

In the end I made 12 ticks for the night, but a couple of bad habits started creeping back in, so I gauge tonight as lucky, not clever

One thing I did do was close the Shorts almost to the tick bottom as the downside momentum came to a halt so the "feel" was much better on the exit.


----------



## Jens

I have been a member of this forum for a couple of months now. Some threads are interesting reading. I have had an interest in trading for years. Initially, it was stocks/CFD's and futures medium to long term investing. That was too slow for me and I was going crazy, waiting to find out if I made a good call or not 
Then I went to trading forex and gold off 1 & 2 min charts, which was just as crazy. Now I am getting more and more comfortable with forex and gold on 15 min charts, backed up  by 1 hour charts as well. I have been through all the indicators I could possible find in cyberspace and trying to get a different result from doing the same thing :bonk:
Now I have settled on SMA's only. Mainly 25, with 100 & 300 being secondary. I find, if SMA 25 is trending strongly, then it is time to look for entry signals...the trick then is to wait for those signals to form and not jump the gun.
Lessons, that I am FINALLY learning:
1: I don't have to trade everyday...there is a new day tomorrow...no trade is better than a bad trade
2: After taking a loss...it is silly (to say it mildly) to have the mindset "I am going to get you back"
3: Be extra cautious when trading on a Friday. The worst feeling must be to turn a profitable week into a loss on a Friday night. That is never a good weekend utthedoor:

So...that is where I am at!


----------



## barney

Jens said:


> So...that is where I am at!




Yeah we are all in the same boat Jens  ...... Ironing out the bugs, and controlling the demons



ps. Update on tonight's trading   ....... I managed to screw up the next round of trades to finish minus 4 for the night  That's enough ballsups for one night!  Sleep is a better option.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Gap fill to the rescue!!
> 
> (2 down 2 to go!)
> 
> Trade #'s 1 & 2 for the night now closed. # 3 just opened.
> 
> Edit: #3 just closed.




Quite an interesting night.

Fewer trades, but the redemption of the hostage shorts was ample compensation.

Altogether a total of 14 trades closed for the night (the 4 caught shorts and 10 subsequent trades).

There are now no open positions (on this particular forex account) and the prized 100% strike rate remains intact! (Steep downtrends do tend to be very forgiving when one is shorting the market.)


----------



## lesm

barney said:


> I have always considered that trading within ones comfort zone makes for better trading ... Your current small position sizing on this account seems to be confirming that Cynic.
> 
> 
> 
> I totally understand that feeling Joe  ... I wonder whether some of the professional traders on ASF could lend some insight on how this "fear" can be overcome  .... Obviously you have been trading for a long time yet still have these doubts  ......  How do we unlearn the fear and embrace the risk .... paper trading doesn't fix it!  Simulation trading doesn't fix it!   ... My own personal experience is to simply throw caution to the wind and try things which look slightly dodgy (on a small but real account), and weed out the good from the bad ideas ...... I have learned a lot from this, but still don't have the confidence to commit anything more than modest sums of cash to my ideas.  Hats off to Pav in the sense that he has found positive expectancy in a short space of time!  ...... Hints welcomed from those who have already found the lightbulb??




Barney you may like to read the following article via the link below:

'The Secret to Breaking the Code to Successful Trading Under Pressure'

http://www.fxtradermagazine.com/online-edition.php


----------



## barney

lesm said:


> Barney you may like to read the following article via the link below:
> 
> 'The Secret to Breaking the Code to Successful Trading Under Pressure'
> 
> http://www.fxtradermagazine.com/online-edition.php





Thanks for that link Les ...... Some very informative stuff in that publication ... and its free?

The psychological makeup of a trader is critical I think. Personally I don't think I have a good psycho makeup to be a trader, but I reckon I have improved enough in the last few months to still give me hope 

Trading under pressure is probably one of the things I have actually personally improved recently so the article makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately because I am not a well regimented person, I trade almost exclusively discretionary, which means I get myself into a lot of trouble at times

Just in respect to the above, the old adage of "cut your losses" are generally wise words, although often easier said than done ..... The other side of that coin of course is, that we might be cutting those losses just at the time we should have been entering in the first place (particularly if you take poor entries like I do at times!)......, therefore, adding to a position might actually be a smarter way to salvage the trade  ....... 

I'm not sure if the above is classed as trading "better" under pressure, but I have noticed that when I take a back seat and try and calmly assess a trade which has taken a turn for the worse, the trade generally turns out better ..... but not always

Cheers Les .... appreciate your input.


----------



## Weatsop

Howdy Barney - enjoying your thread!

As requested, here's a very brief guide to a very basic scalp:

Scalping mostly comes down to massive amounts of screen time (though happily surprised at how easy the rust comes off). Plus, unlike other strategies, scalping isn't eliminated by lots of people doing the same - so much is gut instinct that everyone's orders would spread over a few pips at least.

*Right now I'm *not* profitable*, since I'm only on demo accounts. Planning to fund in a week, and if I can get results for the two weeks after, then I'll cheerfully come back and explain it. If I did it now it'd be a bit of a fraud, since yeah, it's been years since I traded.

I'll leave you with this simple one, though: check the 1-minutes for EUR/USD, and look for horizontal bands maybe 5 pips wide, that go for 5 minutes or more. Note that when they break these dead-simple bands, they tend to move pretty hard. Plonk a stop-sell under the band, and a stop-buy above it.

Once you're in the trade, keep your stop at the back of the last minute (so when a minute closes and a new one starts, bring your stop to the lowest low of that just-ended minute, if long, or the highest high, if short). See how many profitable trades there are to be had. 

There's a lot of other stuff going on, and there's a lot of finesse on entry and exit I'll come back and explain later, and there are a few other entries I use, but that very simple entry and exit is my bread and butter. The nice thing about the exit is that you'll usually ride the big moves - I picked up 30 pips last night on one trade, which is golden for scalping.

Couple of points about timing: do this after the European open, up to the US open (so 5-6pm until about 11pm, where slightly different strategies apply). And wait for there to have been some profitable trades on the board before you enter - sometimes this trade doesn't work, conditions aren't right. Wait 'till they're right, then go. And later if you lose some trades, sit back again and wait until things settle down. Patience is a big part of it.

You need a broker, though, that'll leave you a profit on a 4 pip move, preferably a pip or more after commission / added spread. You're aiming at more (usually in the 7-10 range), but there are plenty of trades that go wrong, and I like to have my stop pretty tight. I traded with IB who had 0.2 pip commission, usually a 0.5 pip spread (and sometimes less). Really don't know if I can do this with other brokers at 1 pip spreads...

Anyway! Like I said: take that with a huge grain of salt, because I haven't done a trade like that with real money behind it for a few years. I'll go into epic detail in a few weeks if I can do well - but that's enough to try out on a paper account in the meantime.


----------



## barney

Weatsop said:


> Howdy Barney - enjoying your thread!
> Anyway! Like I said: take that with a huge *grain of salt*, because I haven't done a trade like that with real money behind it for a few years. I'll go into epic detail in a few weeks if I can do well - but that's enough to try out on a paper account in the meantime.




Thanks for that "Weat"

M8, I still consider myself a pretty ordinary Trader, but I know when the *"grain of salt"* is talking sense

I'm sure there are many here who will look forward to your future input

Cheers.


----------



## Weatsop

And, and about trading psychology: for me, the beautiful trade, even better than when it goes running off and makes my week in a few minutes, is *when I get my exit stop just right*.

If the price comes down and kisses my stop a bunch of times, honestly, I don't even care so much if the trade ends up going bad later. The fact that my stop was right for so long, was perfectly on the edge of the price action, that tells me I'm reading the market right. If the price goes below that stop, I want to be out of the trade, because now I don't know what's happening. As long as it stays above, the market is still deciding, so I want to stay in, in case I get another good run.

I can often see areas of decision, where it'll stay in that area for a while, and if it goes wrong (50%) I'll lose 5 pips, but if it goes right (50%) I'll get 10. And if my judgement is right, *even if it's one of the trades that lose*, just being able to judge that trade correctly gives me a real sense of satisfaction.

You can make a profitable career if you lose 45% of the time - or even if you lose 70% of the time, if your losers are a lot less than your winners.

Losing is easy if it's all part of the plan!

It's not super accurate, but it's a good motto to have in scalping (as long as you know when to ignore it): *if the trade isn't going your way, it's going the wrong way. Get out.*


----------



## barney

Weatsop said:


> when I get my exit stop just right
> 
> I want to be out of the trade, because now I don't know what's happening[/B].




Gold ..... thanks for that


----------



## lesm

barney said:


> Thanks for that link Les ...... Some very informative stuff in that publication ... and its free?




Yes, it's free.

As long as you found the article useful.


----------



## cynic

What a night!!

Just opened trade # 22. (#'s 1-21 already completed.)


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> What a night!!
> 
> Just opened trade # 22. (#'s 1-21 already completed.)




The night ended with 47 trades completed, and I am somewhat pleased that this particular FX account's 100% strike rate remains intact. 

Many an experienced trader will recognise that this outcome is largely attributable to some coincidentally favourable market conditions, rather than the merits of this particular (short flavoured) trading strategy.

Larger downtrends tend to increase the likelihood of sizable future retracements (the eventuation of which could severely erode the accumulated profits) so it's still too early to celebrate the victory!


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> The night ended with 47 trades completed, and I am somewhat pleased that this particular FX account's 100% strike rate remains intact.
> 
> Many an experienced trader will recognise that this outcome is largely attributable to some coincidentally favourable market conditions, rather than the merits of this particular (short flavoured) trading strategy.
> 
> Larger downtrends tend to increase the likelihood of sizable future retracements (the eventuation of which could severely erode the accumulated profits) so it's still too early to celebrate the victory!




47 from 47 Cynic   ..... Are you running any stops at all, or just discretionary, or just averaging down due to the small position size? ..... Either way, if it works, and you ran the same system with a 100X starting Bank, you might be on to something.  Then again, a 100X starting Bank adds psychological pressure as any potential loss starts to mean something (unless you are a MacMillionaire of course)


----------



## barney

Opened a couple of minis to test the water on the GBP/USD (short) when the EUR/GBP was behaving a bit countersunk to the EUR/USD.

From my humble testing, (and pre the big move times of night), the EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP will often work against each other and that is often a "safe" time to trade the Pound/USD relative to the EUR/GBP

Closed the trade immediately the EUR/GBP started misbehaving to the downside, so happy with all of that  .. +11 pips (I'm retiring next week, lol )


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> 47 from 47 Cynic   ..... Are you running any stops at all, or just discretionary, or just averaging down due to the small position size? ..... Either way, if it works, and you ran the same system with a 100X starting Bank, you might be on to something.  Then again, a 100X starting Bank adds psychological pressure as any potential loss starts to mean something (unless you are a MacMillionaire of course)




Apologies for the tardiness of my reply.

These past few days I've had major computer issues on my main pc and subsequently my contingency PC. Transitioning from XP to windows has been nothing short of an IT nightmare of mammoth proportions and my contempt for Microsoft now knows no bounds!

The only stops that have been run were accidental stop entries (fortunately these ballsups turned benign).

The risk management methodology includes a hedging strategy to be deployed when the open accumulated exposure reaches a certain level, until then all positions are allowed to run rampant!

Earlier this week I came to within 2 trades of deploying the hedge. So it's been a week of near misses.

It's easy to masquerade as a champion trader when one just happens to be using a strategy that's coincidentally biased in the direction of a 15% trend!


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Apologies for the tardiness of my reply.
> 
> It's easy to masquerade as a champion trader when one just happens to be using a strategy that's coincidentally biased in the direction of a 15% trend!




No apologies required around here Cynic  ..... glad you've had a good couple of weeks, apart from the computer problems


----------



## barney

Just thinking out loud, but the Pound looks long at the moment ......  Looking to build a position on either the GBP/USD, ......  or if the US dollar gains strength, the GBP/CHF ..... see what pans out


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Amazing few days Barn hope you have been with the trend. 

I have been out of action since last Thursday with flu. just got back into it last night. caught some good shorts last night but cut a bit with counter attempts. 

Been on the GBPJPY and DAX 90% some just jaw dropping moves with both. today no counter trades. 5/5 atm seeing what comes along. 

DAX has done over 500 pts since yesterday! just crazy


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> Amazing few days Barn hope you have been with the trend.
> 
> I have been out of action since last Thursday with flu. just got back into it last night. caught some good shorts last night but cut a bit with counter attempts.
> 
> Been on the GBPJPY and DAX 90% some just jaw dropping moves with both. today no counter trades. 5/5 atm seeing what comes along.
> 
> DAX has done over 500 pts since yesterday! just crazy




Been a wild old time for sure!  I'm still just plodding along ... glad you had a good night



barney said:


> Just thinking out loud, but the Pound looks long at the moment ......  Looking to build a position on either the GBP/USD, ......  or if the US dollar gains strength, the GBP/CHF ..... see what pans out




In keeping with my ability to Balls things up  ....... I nominated my bias, and my proposed plan of attack before I opened positions, but didn't follow the plan!  

No screenshots of  the trades but as the charts shows I had the overall bias correct, but due to taking on too many positions prior to the retrace on both the GBP/USD and GBP/CHF (Green circles), I still managed to get myself into trouble!

Impatience, too aggressive, and making assumptions, instead of following my original idea. What should have been a productive night turned into a comedy of errors .... but I wasn't laughing

Might be time to go back to the Demo account, which is the equivalent of the "naughty corner"


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> ...The risk management methodology includes a hedging strategy to be deployed when the open accumulated exposure reaches a certain level, until then all positions are allowed to run rampant!
> 
> Earlier this week I came to within 2 trades of deploying the hedge. So it's been a week of near misses.
> ...



Caught short just a few too many times last night! Hedge deployed!


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Caught short just a few too many times last night! Hedge deployed!




There'll be no prizes for guessing the direction of my P&L these past two days (i.e. "V" shaped).


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> ...
> It's easy to masquerade as a champion trader when one just happens to be using a strategy that's coincidentally biased in the direction of a 15% trend!



Well that was last week!

Masquerading as an amateur this week.

Still managing to get a few across the line, but compared to the past month, progress is somewhat sluggish.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Caught short just a few too many times last night! Hedge deployed!




Hi C,

So are you Flat now or still net short or flipped more to the long side?


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> Hi C,
> 
> So are you Flat now or still net short or flipped more to the long side?




Still a smidgin to the short side, but exposure wound back considerably since the bounce last week.


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> There'll be no prizes for guessing the direction of my P&L these past two days (i.e. "V" shaped).




Now looking more like a backwards "N".

Hopefully that'll turn into a "W" soon!


----------



## dlineinvestor

Barney.. 
Do you have a favorite setup or play ... what is your approach / parameters to entering a trade.


----------



## barney

dlineinvestor said:


> Barney..
> Do you have a favorite setup or play ... what is your approach / parameters to entering a trade.




Hey "dline",

Thanks for dropping in.  As far as methods go, totally discretionary, so definitely not a good role model 

Currently still testing and looking for an edge in trading the correlations between the EUR/GBP, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD.  All eyeball testing so takes a lot of time to get through, but definitely finding some valuable stuff.

The EUR/GBP is like a bellwether for the potential direction that either the EUR/USD or the GBP/USD is likely to follow. As always, timing the entries better will improve results exponentially.  Entries are my main weakness unfortunately.

As far as patterns go ..... Simply Double tops and Double bottoms; Retests of DT's/DB's, and breakouts or failed breakouts of DT's and DB's  ...... The way I see it, every pattern is just a derivative of a DT or a DB .....  all that changes is the time frame being traded.

Cheers.


----------



## dlineinvestor

barney said:


> Hey "dline",
> 
> Thanks for dropping in.  As far as methods go, totally discretionary, so definitely not a good role model
> 
> Currently still testing and looking for an edge in trading the correlations between the EUR/GBP, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD.  All eyeball testing so takes a lot of time to get through, but definitely finding some valuable stuff.
> 
> The EUR/GBP is like a bellwether for the potential direction that either the EUR/USD or the GBP/USD is likely to follow. As always, timing the entries better will improve results exponentially.  Entries are my main weakness unfortunately.
> 
> As far as patterns go ..... Simply Double tops and Double bottoms; Retests of DT's/DB's, and breakouts or failed breakouts of DT's and DB's  ...... The way I see it, every pattern is just a derivative of a DT or a DB .....  all that changes is the time frame being traded.
> 
> Cheers.




Hi yah,
Yes you definately want to have an edge, I charted the GBP/USD on the weekend. 
A trading coach I recently spoke to mentioned his signals were "blindingly simple. All of them were taken off one hour charts, once he see's potential trades he sets stop and limit order and walks away. Then moves on looking for another potential trade. Next morning day or whenever he checks to see which ones are in the money or stopped out.
I believe longer time frame signals are not only more substantial but higher probability. Take for example a double top on 2 min as opposed to double top on one hour. Obviously you would not miss the one hour. Four hour better, daily even so. Charts attached for GBP/USD
Cheers,
PS His coaching rate is 350.00/hr


----------



## tech/a

Double Top or resisting twice at a point?

Big difference.


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> Double Top or resisting twice at a point?
> 
> Big difference.




Same thing, but my point is on longer time frames the signal is amplified in probability. Every trade should have a context which will make the example D top high probability or not.
In your opinion how are these different before you see more of the hard right.


----------



## tech/a

dlineinvestor said:


> Same thing, but my point is on longer time frames the signal is amplified in probability. Every trade should have a context which will make the example D top high probability or not.
> In your opinion how are these different before you see more of the hard right.




Firstly a double top needs confirmation its* NOT *the same thing and by the time you have confirmation the trade is a long way from a tight entry.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

A trade which resists at or around an old high in any timeframe and in particular derivatives is likely to trade just beyond it as stops are hunted. Or just below it in the big end of town are set beyond the high being tested.

The difference lies in the pivot being tested---as in is it a long term pivot over a number of timeframes.(A 1 minute which is ALSO seen in the daily as the pivot---an extreme but valid example).
Volume can also tell a tale.
As can price action at the pivot---did it take out stops and has it depleted buyers e.g. does it fall off with range on little volume.

That will be $290 I give discount to ASF members!


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> but my point is on longer time frames the signal is amplified in probability.




How can you say that? How can a signal be improved simply by increasing the timeframe?  I think that is a logical miscalculation. 

Are you saying that a signal on a two minute will give you on average 20 pips and on a daily 200 pips or are you saying that the daily signal has a much higher win rate? If so got any data to back it up?


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> Firstly a double top needs confirmation its* NOT *the same thing and by the time you have confirmation the trade is a long way from a tight entry.
> 
> http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal
> 
> A trade which resists at or around an old high in any timeframe and in particular derivatives is likely to trade just beyond it as stops are hunted. Or just below it in the big end of town are set beyond the high being tested.
> 
> The difference lies in the pivot being tested---as in is it a long term pivot over a number of timeframes.(A 1 minute which is ALSO seen in the daily as the pivot---an extreme but valid example).
> Volume can also tell a tale.
> As can price action at the pivot---did it take out stops and has it depleted buyers e.g. does it fall off with range on little volume.
> 
> That will be $290 I give discount to ASF members!




When I used the term D top this is a well know play as is D bottom. Traders use these for their bread and butter income. How they analyse for entry will be different in most cases.
I wanted to give a general reference to them for this thread.
If we get into the science behind the reasons for entry then we'll have to rename the thread "Barney's reason for entering thread" Everything is subjective because everyone has an opinion. "My experience longer time frames = higher probability on the signal succeeding or not.
Your services are in excess by about $289.00 ASF members deserve a better deal


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> Everything is subjective because everyone has an opinion. "My experience longer time frames = higher probability on the signal succeeding or not.




!!

You don't need opinion for something that is easily tested. I assume you haven't?


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> !!
> 
> You don't need opinion for something that is easily tested. I assume you haven't?




Have you


----------



## tech/a

dlineinvestor said:


> When I used the term D top this is a well know play as is D bottom. Traders use these for their bread and butter income. How they analyse for entry will be different in most cases.
> I wanted to give a general reference to them for this thread.
> If we get into the science behind the reasons for entry then we'll have to rename the thread "Barney's reason for entering thread" Everything is subjective because everyone has an opinion. "My experience longer time frames = higher probability on the signal succeeding or not.
> Your services are in excess by about $289.00 ASF members deserve a better deal




Hmm time for myself to exit this thread.

*I believe longer time frame signals are not only more substantial but higher probability.* 
You have a belief. One a few of us don't agree with.

You also have a belief that if price reaches a level twice in 2 peaks or troughs in any timeframe that constitutes a 
double bottom or double top.----it doesn't. I took the time to get you a reference---please take the time to read it.

Your actually talking about a test of a pivot.

*If you think about it a bit *a test of a Daily pivot that sticks Or (1) of a double top as you like to call it--- will have a 1/3/5/60 min bar at the exact same pivot and it will be tested by the whole range of bars tested---which will succeed or fail.


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> Hmm time for myself to exit this thread.
> 
> *I believe longer time frame signals are not only more substantial but higher probability.*
> You have a belief. One a few of us don't agree with.
> 
> You also have a belief that if price reaches a level twice in 2 peaks or troughs in any timeframe that constitutes a
> double bottom or double top.----it doesn't. I took the time to get you a reference---please take the time to read it.
> 
> Your actually talking about a test of a pivot.
> 
> *If you think about it a bit *a test of a Daily pivot that sticks Or (1) of a double top as you like to call it--- will have a 1/3/5/60 min bar at the exact same pivot and it will be tested by the whole range of bars tested---which will succeed or fail.




 I'm not referring to pivots, .... I'm discussing D top and D bot as "patterns. 
What I will maintain is that "it is my experience longer time frames increase the probability these "patterns will work. Entering part position size is what I do, then add once confirmation happens, if it happens
lol I don't really need anyone to agree with me. bit like another logo saying t lines don't work
At the end of the day, a trader will use what works and bin what doesn't.


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> Have you




Yep, probably hundreds and hundreds of back tests. Increasing the bar time doesn't make it a 'better' signal. 

I think if you took the time to test your ideas you would get a very different idea from what you think is logical.


----------



## barney

Dline, Tech and TH,

I appreciate you guys slugging it out, and how each trader trades DT's and DB's is a whole bigger ball game .... 

I was simply stating that (in my opinion),  DT's and DB's are constantly being formed in all time frames, and all other chart patterns are derivatives of that one pattern. Obviously my interpretation is not text book, but that doesn't change the way I look at it.  

I'm more interested in the relativity of one FX pair to another when a DT or DB is formed, or even *more importantly*, when a spike High or spike Low is rejected after a DT/DB  

I can only eyeball test cause I'm too old and dumb to work out how to drive Excel, but I reckon the rejected spike (often a HH or LL after a DT/DB) is where the real money is to be made in FX.

Hopefully the couple of charts are self explanatory.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep, probably hundreds and hundreds of back tests. Increasing the bar time doesn't make it a 'better' signal.
> 
> I think if you took the time to test your ideas you would get a very different idea from what you think is logical.




mate, Nobody backtests d tops or d bottoms, give us a break.
They just are : a major "pattern signal that millions of ppl take in in every conceivable market world wide.
Some times they work sometimes they don't. I don't care, either way I take them when I feel it's ap*prop*riate and then manage the outcome. 

"I simply mention "it's my opinion "on longer time frames that I find them to be more reliable. "my" input to Barney's thread, nothing illogical about that.


----------



## Weatsop

dlineinvestor said:


> I'm not referring to pivots, .... I'm discussing D top and D bot as "patterns.
> What I will maintain is that "it is my experience longer time frames increase the probability these "patterns will work. Entering part position size is what I do, then add once confirmation happens, if it happens
> lol I don't really need anyone to agree with me. bit like another logo saying t lines don't work
> At the end of the day, a trader will use what works and bin what doesn't.




Sometimes it helps if someone translates?

...assuming I understand the duck here...

1. There are pivot points you try to predict in advance (there are a bunch of ways) - but you can also see them retroactively, whether they fit an "indicator" or not. A double-top, by definition, always occurs at a pivot point. It MAKES that point a pivot. Strong resistance can be a pivot point. Maybe not the "indicator" kind, maybe it's not something you had marked up on your chart, but it's the point at which a reversal occurs, or could occur. So after it happens, it becomes a pivot point.

2. A double-top isn't a double-top until it's been confirmed later on by a break below the trough (and a few other things - I'm horribly ignorant about volume and the book). Two (or more) tries to breach resistance may BECOME a double-top, and it may not. But how you trade resistance is different to how you trade a double-top.

Plus, plenty (most) resistance bouncing *can't* be a double top. It can't meet the criteria.

So if you're entering one position, then a second once a double-top is confirmed, isn't that actually one resistance play, and one double-top entry? Wouldn't you manage each one quite differently?

Like, wouldn't you expect to have exited that first position *before* the double-top is confirmed, most of the time?


----------



## dlineinvestor

barney said:


> Dline, Tech and TH,
> 
> I appreciate you guys slugging it out, and how each trader trades DT's and DB's is a whole bigger ball game ....
> 
> I was simply stating that (in my opinion),  DT's and DB's are constantly being formed in all time frames, and all other chart patterns are derivatives of that one pattern. Obviously my interpretation is not text book, but that doesn't change the way I look at it.
> 
> I'm more interested in the relativity of one FX pair to another when a DT or DB is formed, or even *more importantly*, when a spike High or spike Low is rejected after a DT/DB
> 
> I can only eyeball test cause I'm too old and dumb to work out how to drive Excel, but I reckon the rejected spike (often a HH or LL after a DT/DB) is where the real money is to be made in FX.
> 
> Hopefully the couple of charts are self explanatory.




 .... Barney ! this is what I'm talking about, thanks for the chart. 
That pattern you see is a classic classic d top retest go short signal ..... imo u won't get better than that
Once again my opinion for chr!st sake ... 
Don't want anyone else getting their nickers in a knot, great thread barney glad to be a part


----------



## Weatsop

dlineinvestor said:


> mate, Nobody backtests d tops or d bottoms, give us a break.





Why *wouldn't* you backtest double tops?

I don't... What? I really don't understand. I'm starting to think everyone is using a subtly different language.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Weatsop said:


> Sometimes it helps if someone translates?
> 
> ...assuming I understand the duck here...
> 
> 1. There are pivot points you try to predict in advance (there are a bunch of ways) - but you can also see them retroactively, whether they fit an "indicator" or not. A double-top, by definition, always occurs at a pivot point. It MAKES that point a pivot. Strong resistance can be a pivot point. Maybe not the "indicator" kind, maybe it's not something you had marked up on your chart, but it's the point at which a reversal occurs, or could occur. So after it happens, it becomes a pivot point.
> 
> 2. A double-top isn't a double-top until it's been confirmed later on by a break below the trough (and a few other things - I'm horribly ignorant about volume and the book). Two (or more) tries to breach resistance may BECOME a double-top, and it may not. But how you trade resistance is different to how you trade a double-top.
> 
> Plus, plenty (most) resistance bouncing *can't* be a double top. It can't meet the criteria.
> 
> So if you're entering one position, then a second once a double-top is confirmed, isn't that actually one resistance play, and one double-top entry? Wouldn't you manage each one quite differently?
> 
> Like, wouldn't you expect to have exited that first position *before* the double-top is confirmed, most of the time?




Intelligence and Diplomacy well done +1 weatsop


----------



## Weatsop

dlineinvestor said:


> Intelligence and Diplomacy well done +1 weatsop




My mum is right: I'm lovely.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Make sure to give her the link 
Someone tell me the short entry in the chart is  a legitimate crap short entry and I'll shut up. lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> A trading coach I recently spoke
> 
> PS His coaching rate is 350.00/hr






dlineinvestor said:


> mate, Nobody backtests d tops or d bottoms, give us a break.
> 
> 
> "I simply mention "it's my opinion "on longer time frames that I find them to be more reliable.




Dude....... wonder what would be cheaper,


----------



## tech/a

dlineinvestor said:


> Make sure to give her the link
> Someone tell me the short entry in the chart is  a legitimate crap short entry and I'll shut up. lol




OK

This guy is world renowned.

http://thepatternsite.com/Busted.html
Check out his busted section and the patterns
Double tops
And Double bottoms.

You can even score your setup.
http://thepatternsite.com/scaadt.html

Like all patterns they are a legitimate setup.
But there is more to them than just an opinion.
There are and has been a great deal of research on 1000s of patterns.
Everyone wants an edge.

You have a lot to learn.


----------



## barney

dlineinvestor said:


> Intelligence and Diplomacy well done +1 weatsop




As usual Weatsop, a quality post



Weatsop said:


> My mum is right: I'm lovely.




But can we trust your Mum:



Trembling Hand said:


> Dude....... wonder what would be cheaper,




I've been here for a while so I understand that comment for the way its meant  ..... a little bit "smarty ask", but at the same time trying to be helpful

Dline,  I think what people may have missed in your "promotion" of DT's etc. is that you do wait for confirmation and trade the second leg down, so effectively you are doing exactly as many others would be endorsing.  All the angst you are getting probably should be directed at me because I am trying to fabricate a method of actually entering Short at the highest recent high which is both counter intuitive and risky  ...... or is it   ... testing continues   ... geez I wish I could drive excel



tech/a said:


> Like all patterns they are a legitimate setup.
> But there is more to them than just an opinion.





Tech I think Dline has shown in his above example that he is likely trading these positions very similar to what you would do, yes/no??  ........ i.e.  DT  ... confirmation  ... take the secondary Short break.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Hi all .... 
See chart this is what I mean no more no less
It is an "excellent" short entry ... I don't need to back test what's making me money.
"Barney no angst here .... I like this thread and I'm 100 % in helping you in any way I can.


----------



## Weatsop

barney said:


> All the angst you are getting probably should be directed at me because I am trying to fabricate a method of actually entering Short at the highest recent high which is both counter intuitive and risky  ...... or is it   ... testing continues   ... geez I wish I could drive excel




I can only speak from a forex point of view, and forex is as dumb as it gets...

(And I'll point out right now that having gotten back into it recently - fresh eyes and all that - and having spent a lot of time reading about other ways of trading, it's finally occurred to me to ask myself why the hell I'm still trying to trade forex?)

...going short near the top isn't a bad idea, depending on how you do it, and assuming your first priority is to scalp something little. And I wouldn't short the high when it's made, since, yeah, that's when it's gapping along up and you'll get murdered.

What I do is to wait for a reasonable line of resistance to build - noting that a new high or low is often punched *through* the "real" line of resistance. Being a dope who pretty much self-taught, I call that a stab. There's the resistance, the skin, in a line across there, and that bit there was a stab through the resistance, which failed and fell. It's actually a stronger indication of resistance that a thick band, in my (limited) experience - at least, my stab-recognition is giving higher numbers than my band-recognition.

ANYWAY. How do you know where that real line was? You need to wait for a pullback, then a re-test. Often there's a spike up that gets about as high as the first. That's probably tradeable (honestly I don't have a good handle on it, running at a touch less than breakeven on that one), but the best kind is where you get a band forming a good line, that agrees with a band or other resistance from before the stab. That's golden-delicious.

It's not a head-and-shoulders (assuming I actually understand what that is - like I said, I only recently started digging into what other people call patterns), it's just a nice clear stab through a clear line of skin.

Then you can easily get in close to the top, with a stop juuuuust above the line (so, maybe 2 pips), and you've got most of the distance to the bottom of that band to pick up a scalp. I'll usually run a stop just above (half a pip) the high of the last bar, which loses a little in the band, but keeps me in if it runs a bit.

You just have to make sure the thickness of the band is enough to justify your stop. Like, if you'll need a 2 pip stop, and the band is only 4 pips wide, given you'll only get 3 pips of it most of the time, it's not worth the risk. But in EUR/USD bands are often a good 6-8 pips wide.

This isn't a great example, but it's on the chart right now, so:




So this one stabbed up through twice, but you can see the skin pretty clearly. 

In this case the band is not really wide enough for me to trade, but the resistance level is really clear - it's not the stabs, it's the skin. So you could short it at the skin, hop out if a bar turns back too far, but otherwise look to be on a break down a few pips early. Low risk setup, looking to make some pips inside the band, and giving it enough room to be on a break down.

...or you could look to short a break down below the band. There's sort of a stab through skin there, too. I'm just not nearly as good at trading that sort of thing - it's not nearly as clear to me there, without a new high or low or obvious line of something-something nearby to be moving away from...

---
BUT ALSO: after a big move I've got a pattern I call "smooth turn", which is really just a smooth slowdown (not jerking around and skipping over too many price points), lows coming up, then a small bar or two. 

Then I can short on the break below those one or two little bars. 

If they're big bars, flying all over the place, like an angry zebra on crack, then I stay the hell out of it.

That's actually running on only 3 stopped out, out of 15 tries, with 65 pips profit after commissions. Only, yeah, that's a laughably small number, and whenever I eyeball old charts I can see way more failed trades than wins - and it's been really easy to program into Amibroker, who also says a big fat no. 

I'm not sure if I'm judging the mood well when I'm live - if that lack of jerkiness is a major factor - or if I've just been lucky.


*I should mention that's all on the 1-minutes, with looks at bigger time-frames for the simplest identification of obvious lines.


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> You have a lot to learn.



"surely you mean "we all have allot to learn " you can include yourself if your up to it .


----------



## tech/a

dlineinvestor said:


> "surely you mean "we all have allot to learn " you can include yourself if your up to it .




No----I mean you.
I've learnt what I need to know.
At 60 if you don't know----you'll never know.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> At 60 if you don't know----you'll never know.




Nah that's not true Tech ....

What if you only started learning at 58 or 59?

If you (not you personally) are 60 and think you know all you need to know, I'd suggest you are either fooling yourself, or stuck in your ways.  (My old man springs to mind  ..... ps. My old man is a champion, but he used to think he knew everything  ....... then he got to 75 and realised he knew bugger all)  ..... Now he's 85 and starting to learn stuff again!!


ps. Just on a totally unrelated issue  .... I have been trading absolute cr@p tonight while trying to post etc ...... I AM the worlds worst trader  ..... (sometimes)


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Nah that's not true Tech ....
> 
> What if you only started learning at 58 or 59?
> 
> If you (not you personally) are 60 and think you know all you need to know, I'd suggest you are either fooling yourself, or stuck in your ways.  (My old man springs to mind  ..... ps. My old man is a champion, but he used to think he knew everything  ....... then he got to 75 and realised he knew bugger all)  ..... Now he's 85 and starting to learn stuff again!!
> 
> 
> ps. Just on a totally unrelated issue  .... I have been trading absolute cr@p tonight while trying to post etc ...... I AM the worlds worst trader  ..... (sometimes)





I'd say you've wasted a lifetime.
Many don't reach 60.

I certainly do not know everything.
You can learn at any age.

But I do know what I need to know.
If you or anyone else don't know what they 
Need to know-----

Think about it!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> I'd say you've wasted a lifetime.
> Many don't reach 60.
> 
> I certainly do not know everything.
> You can learn at any age.
> 
> But I do know what I need to know.
> If you or anyone else don't know what they
> Need to know-----
> 
> Think about it!




Yeah I know. I just wanted to make you philosophical cause you are much nicer that way:

Here's what I know at "not quite 60" in order of importance .....

My Family (Wife and Kids) are the most important thing in my life. Without them life would be empty.

I wish I was healthier.

I know a lot but I readily admit I know very little.

I wish I knew what I know now 40 years ago! 

Mortality is real !!


----------



## dlineinvestor

Barney once again great thread, from the chart you've posted I reposted it and outlined in the white where the best entry would be. I have seen this pattern many times and on many time frames. Can you see the psychology behind the price action and the why it finally breaks down. 
You get the timing right and it's money in the bank my friend. 
Most threads go off topic at some point not your fault ... but as long as I've been able to show you another perspective on some thing my job is done here.


----------



## Weatsop

tech/a said:


> I'd say you've wasted a lifetime.
> Many don't reach 60.
> 
> I certainly do not know everything.
> You can learn at any age.
> 
> But I do know what I need to know.
> If you or anyone else don't know what they
> Need to know-----
> 
> Think about it!




I'm with you, Tech. Something about being older make us think... longer term. It doesn't make sense - we get less time, but we appreciate the long play all the more. We learn better. I get to see what an idiot I was for the last bunch of years. It's almost a tragedy...

And I reckon I just started learning, really learning. Weeks ago. Not even years. Just weeks. Don't take that above as a claim. I only just realised how ****ing ignorant I am. I can envy folk like you. Aspire, even.

But I have time.

...look hard at advances in bio (as I did for a lot of hours, in my last couple of jobs) and you'll see - if you can last another 20 years, you might just last another 100. And if you can last 100, you might just get to go as long as you decide to go. 

And look at history. Look at look at all the rich and powerful falling off, just as they gain something like wisdom.

The world in fifty years will be unrecognisable. And it won't be the young, anymore, who can leverage all that energy to master the new ways. Energy won't matter. 

What'll matter is adaptation. Adaptation, and discipline. Maybe I'm getting all melodramatic here, but: get rich, and hold on. Because it's the people who can take a lifetime of learning, and those who can adapt enough to keep it relevant, who will own this time we're about to hit.


----------



## barney

Weatsop said:


> If they're big bars, flying all over the place, like an angry zebra on crack, then I stay the hell out of it.
> 
> .




Thanks for that post above Weat.  Some good info in that ... I picked my favourite bit to "quote"






Weatsop said:


> The world in fifty years will be unrecognisable.




Aint that the truth!!  

Cars will drive you to where you want to go while you sit and watch videos!  Or if you are real wealthy, you will have your own Aerocar which will fly you there in 10% of the time:car:



dlineinvestor said:


> Barney once again great thread, from the chart you've posted I reposted it and outlined in the white where the best entry would be. I have seen this pattern many times and on many time frames. Can you see the psychology behind the price action and the why it finally breaks down.
> You get the timing right and it's money in the bank my friend.




Absolutely "D".  I understand the psych behind the Spikes and agree it can be a great setup.  

Just another note on that same setup ... After the original Double Top/Spike/Fail/Drop ....... The retest up to the midpoint was almost exactly 50%.  Again its something I can only eyeball test, but that 50% zone is Very repetitive   I like to scale into entries so its possible to get fairly aggressive with the first positions.

On that note, I got overly aggressive last night on Poor setups and paid the price. That's why I shut up shop early.  Often better to walk away than play catch up I've found

Chart of that 50% zone below just for reference.

ps. The ensuing Double Top also broke down for another quality Short back into a Fib Zone   I prefer to see it as a 2% move  ..... Fibs do seem to regurgitate, but I see % moves as more mathematically rational.


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Thanks for that post above Weat.  Some good info in that ... I picked my favourite bit to "quote"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Aint that the truth!!
> 
> Cars will drive you to where you want to go while you sit and watch videos!  Or if you are real wealthy, you will have your own Aerocar which will fly you there in 10% of the time:car:
> 
> 
> 
> Absolutely "D".  I understand the psych behind the Spikes and agree it can be a great setup.
> 
> Just another note on that same setup ... After the original Double Top/Spike/Fail/Drop ....... The retest up to the midpoint was almost exactly 50%.  Again its something I can only eyeball test, but that 50% zone is Very repetitive   I like to scale into entries so its possible to get fairly aggressive with the first positions.
> 
> On that note, I got overly aggressive last night on Poor setups and paid the price. That's why I shut up shop early.  Often better to walk away than play catch up I've found
> 
> Chart of that 50% zone below just for reference.
> 
> ps. The ensuing Double Top also broke down for another quality Short back into a Fib Zone   I prefer to see it as a 2% move  ..... Fibs do seem to regurgitate, but I see % moves as more mathematically rational.




Point a few of us are making is that showing these patterns on a chart after the fact is *VASTLY* different to trading them *AS THEY HAPPEN*---in any timeframe.

If someone would like to post up a few as they happen perhaps we can watch as they unfold to perfection as those shown have!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Point a few of us are making is that showing these patterns on a chart after the fact is *VASTLY* different to trading them *AS THEY HAPPEN*---in any timeframe.
> 
> If someone would like to post up a few as they happen perhaps we can watch as they unfold to perfection as those shown have!




Tech,   You may not have noticed, the name of the thread is ....... "Ballsups" 

Nobody here is trying to show you how good they are; not me anyway.  I've made it abundantly clear that I started this thread to try and improve my myriad of constant self destructive mistakes. (When I started it, I thought I might have been on to something  ..... I have had to re-think several times since then

By posting up what "should have been done" (perfection) hopefully everybody learns something; I certainly do!  You admit you know everything you need to know; you are fortunate.  The "perfect" charts are simply a reference; and they are far from perfect but they are useful, and useful is a good place to start.

Cheers.


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Tech,   You may not have noticed, the name of the thread is ....... "Ballsups"
> 
> Nobody here is trying to show you how good they are; not me anyway.  I've made it abundantly clear that I started this thread to try and *improve my myriad of constant self destructive mistakes*. (When I started it, I thought I might have been on to something  ..... I have had to re-think several times since then
> 
> *By posting up what "should have been done" (perfection) hopefully everybody learns something; I certainly do!*  You admit you know everything you need to know; you are fortunate.  The "perfect" charts are simply a reference; and they are far from perfect but they are useful, and useful is a good place to start.
> 
> Cheers.




Barney.

You need to know what it is ----You *NEED* to know!

If you don't---you just swim through information without knowing what it is you need and what to do with it----let alone how and why to implement it.

How about you list your myriad of self destructive mistakes.
Ill bet there aren't that many---a myriad Id say is 10+ 
I think you'd be surprised by how few they are.
Then post how you intend to over come the list.

In my view---Unless your developing a System based upon conditions and variables---past history is of little value.
You *NEED TO KNOW* how to implement and how to trade any hint given to you.
and *YOU NEED TO KNOW* in the *NOW* not how it panned out last time or last year!

For every time you see this set up (Double bottom or Double top ) It will fail more often than not.
HOW do you trade that---a failure?
How do you know when to hang in it when it corrects at some point?
How do you know when to exit.
How do you know when you should be hitting it a more.
How do you know when it should be placed on a watch list and not traded.
How do you position size it.
How do you set your stops--if any.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Barney.
> 
> You need to know what it is ----You *NEED* to know!
> 
> If you don't---you just swim through information without knowing what it is you need and what to do with it----let alone how and why to implement it.
> 
> How about you list your myriad of self destructive mistakes.
> Ill bet there aren't that many---a myriad Id say is 10+
> I think you'd be surprised by how few they are.
> Then post how you intend to over come the list.
> 
> In my view---Unless your developing a System based upon conditions and variables---past history is of little value.
> You *NEED TO KNOW* how to implement and how to trade any hint given to you.
> and *YOU NEED TO KNOW* in the *NOW* not how it panned out last time or last year!
> 
> For every time you see this set up (Double bottom or Double top ) It will fail more often than not.
> HOW do you trade that---a failure?
> How do you know when to hang in it when it corrects at some point?
> How do you know when to exit.
> How do you know when you should be hitting it a more.
> How do you know when it should be placed on a watch list and not traded.
> How do you position size it.
> How do you set your stops--if any.




Just back in from doing real work  ...... work is way over rated!

Tech, I appreciate such a detailed response.  

Just a quick response to some of the above.  

Actually this is more of an admission than a response,   I am totally aware that I am not a very regimented person. I am self taught at almost everything I do (and in all humility, I tend to go ok at most things once I iron out the bugs)

I tend to treat trading in the same way, which maybe is not the best way to go about it  ...... Try something; if it doesn't work, try something else until it does work. 

That philosophy is working to a point as I see things happening on charts now days which I would never have even noticed a couple of years ago.  One particular "pattern" I've been "testing" over the last week or so really got me interested.  Its based around the correlation concept between currencies so it tends to be confirmed from more than one direction, but that is a work in progress, and doesn't address the grass roots stuff you have identified above

With no system parameters to back test you are dead right; I am flying blind; sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Unfortunately I can't get my head round back testing as Excel formulas etc bog me down and I am impatient (another failing!), so I meander around making the same kind of mistakes, like I did last night.  

I remember Joe/Apocalypto suggested similar things a few pages back, so it might be time to "regiment" myself up a bit and get a bit more serious about making it work.

Will digest your comments above over the next few days and hopefully add some more constructive replies.  

Appreciate the input.


----------



## Weatsop

tech/a said:


> OK
> 
> This guy is world renowned.
> 
> http://thepatternsite.com/Busted.html
> Check out his busted section and the patterns
> Double tops
> And Double bottoms.
> 
> You can even score your setup.
> http://thepatternsite.com/scaadt.html
> 
> Like all patterns they are a legitimate setup.
> But there is more to them than just an opinion.
> There are and has been a great deal of research on 1000s of patterns.
> Everyone wants an edge.
> 
> You have a lot to learn.




Not sure if I misunderstood, but Bulkowski actually gives head-and-shoulders the highest rating of 1: http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html

"...the best performing bearish chart pattern in a bull market".

The busted section if for stats on what happens when the pattern fails.

LOVE the site, though. Solid gold for ignorant numpties like me. Eating this stuff with a SPOON.

I was way too worried about frauds and liars, back in the day. Now I'm finding reliable people to listen to, I'm getting a lot of good stuff.


----------



## tech/a

Weatsop said:


> Not sure if I misunderstood, but Bulkowski actually gives head-and-shoulders the highest rating of 1: http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html
> 
> "...the best performing bearish chart pattern in a bull market".
> 
> The busted section if for stats on what happens when the pattern fails.
> 
> LOVE the site, though. Solid gold for ignorant numpties like me. Eating this stuff with a SPOON.
> 
> I was way too worried about frauds and liars, back in the day. Now I'm finding reliable people to listen to, I'm getting a lot of good stuff.




Yes but best read glossary warning.


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## Weatsop

tech/a said:


> Yes but best read glossary warning.




Yeah, I used to use some perfect trading setups to backtest stuff in Amibroker. It's a pile easier to do, just to give you an idea if something sorta works. Sorta like: if this happens, how often does it get to THERE before it goes to HERE? If it gets a daily low in my trading hours, how often will it drop another 10 before it goes up 10? Not a system, just an idea of what usually happens.

The biggest problem for something like this is going to be recognising it correctly at the time, even if the numbers line up. Once you count "complex" head and shoulders, it gets a bit... zen.


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## barney

Scale in Longs the GBP/USD  ... no time to post charts etc ... just recording it as its a live trade  See what happens


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## barney

barney said:


> Scale in Longs the GBP/USD  ... no time to post charts etc ... just recording it as its a live trade  See what happens





This is basically where its at  .......   I like the trade  ... I put a lot of thought into it  ..... if it goes wrong I will wear it as another "miss"


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## barney

This is one of the places I get confused  .....

All my scaled in trades are in profit ...

I still think the medium term trend is going higher towards my original points of analysis, maybe/maybe not

But my current profits are being eroded in the short term by the retracement  ....

Should I:-

Switch to the lower time frame and trade the short term swings, still with a bias to the long side?

Should I simply close out a profitable Trade??

Should I add more positions on the dips??

Price action in this instance (if I'm correct) says the Pound will go higher in the short/medium term  ........ This is where a good trader would know what to do  ....... I want to be a good trader, so I will hang on the the current positions and if it goes pear shaped will look like a  ...... but I will tighten the stops a bit to ease the potential pain!


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## barney

Pound still looks positive even into the retrace  ...added and tightened stops  ... profits being eroded slightly but it still "feels" long  ....... Is it possible to trade by feel??  .. that's how I play guitar lol


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## barney

Closed all Long GBPUSD's   .... Long EURUSD  ...... see if that was a smart move


PS.  Bad trade  ... Should have waited for the double bottom on the EUR/GBP  ... still holding as the trade is still valid  ..... but underwater


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Now looking more like a backwards "N".
> 
> Hopefully that'll turn into a "W" soon!




Briefly turned "W"-ish a while back, but now looking like a super ball bouncing over the edge of a cliff!

That's short flavoured strategies and QE for you! Definitely a challenging mix!!


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Closed all Long GBPUSD's   .... Long EURUSD  ...... see if that was a smart move
> 
> 
> PS.  Bad trade  ... Should have waited for the double bottom on the EUR/GBP  ... still holding as the trade is still valid  ..... but underwater





Added to EURUSD Long ...Stops tightened  ...... ordinary Entries on average again  ..... Still expect it to move up, but taking heat where I didn't need to:frown:


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## barney

Closed all Long EUR/USD positions  .... Crap entries  ... crappy tading!!


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## barney

Long the Pound AND the Euro against the USD


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## Wysiwyg

Barney, Hope you don't mind me using this thread to produce the evidence of what I was posting before but I opened another short sell when the spread was 20 cents and took this screen shot. The computer time is lower right for real time facts.


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> Barney, Hope you don't mind me using this thread to produce the evidence of what I was posting before but I opened another short sell when the spread was 20 cents and took this screen shot. The computer time is lower right for real time facts.
> 
> View attachment 60097





Yeah that's pretty outrageous


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## barney

barney said:


> Long the Pound AND the Euro against the USD





More crappy trading

Traded well early  .... traded like a :homer: late


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## barney

barney said:


> More crappy trading
> 
> Traded well early  .... traded like a :homer: late




I put Homer to bed and brought out this guy:nunchux:

I had the bias correct most of the night on the GBP/USD but got into a bit of "Entry" trouble again and took a bit of heat for a while. Scaled in at the appropriate moments and traded out of a minor pickle.  Better night all round.


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> Briefly turned "W"-ish a while back, but now looking like a super ball bouncing over the edge of a cliff!
> 
> That's short flavoured strategies and QE for you! Definitely a challenging mix!!




Yeah Index Shorts have been a risky proposition. The Dow is starting to look like it sat on a red hot poker 12 days ago


----------



## dlineinvestor

barney said:


> I put Homer to bed and brought out this guy:nunchux:
> 
> I had the bias correct most of the night on the GBP/USD but got into a bit of "Entry" trouble again and took a bit of heat for a while. Scaled in at the appropriate moments and traded out of a minor pickle.  Better night all round.




Good spotting on this trade, buyers were there after each pull back and each one was a higher low. A sign of micro trending. In this case it would be advisable to place a stop under each p/b low and let the market take your position to where ever it wants. In some cases setting a stop like this and letting the position run is psychologically hard but it's easier than selling and "trying to get in higher. You were onto a good thing. Well done !


----------



## barney

dlineinvestor said:


> Good spotting on this trade, buyers were there after each pull back and each one was a higher low. A sign of micro trending. In this case it would be advisable to place a stop under each p/b low and let the market take your position to where ever it wants. In some cases setting a stop like this and letting the position run is psychologically hard but it's easier than selling and "trying to get in higher. You were onto a good thing. Well done !




Thanks "D" .......  The general gist of the trade was good but I still skewed a lot of the entries unfortunately. Keep working at it


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## cynic

WHODUNNIT!!!

Was it: 

A) Professor Plum in the study with the candlestick?

or

B) Reverend Green in the library with the rope?

or 

C) Colonel Mustard in the ballroom with the revolver?

or

D) Mario Draghi in the ECB with promises of another trillion EUROS worth of QE?


So who was it? Who murdered my DAX shorts?!!!


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## barney

tech/a said:


> How about you list your myriad of self destructive mistakes.
> Ill bet there aren't that many---a myriad Id say is 10+
> I think you'd be surprised by how few they are.
> Then post how you intend to over come the list.
> 
> In my view---Unless your developing a System based upon conditions and variables---past history is of little value.
> You *NEED TO KNOW* how to implement and how to trade any hint given to you.
> and *YOU NEED TO KNOW* in the *NOW* not how it panned out last time or last year!
> 
> For every time you see this set up (Double bottom or Double top ) It will fail more often than not.
> HOW do you trade that---a failure?
> How do you know when to hang in it when it corrects at some point?
> How do you know when to exit.
> How do you know when you should be hitting it a more.
> How do you know when it should be placed on a watch list and not traded.
> How do you position size it.
> How do you set your stops--if any.




Apologies for not getting back to this sooner Tech.

I started to write a short novel on my failings as a Forex trader, but thought, I don't need to bore people with too much detail ..... On that note, the short story is fairly simple ..

I am the classic "disorganised" trader  ..... 

I trade discretionary, but without sufficient experience to be successful.

I constantly take poor entries; either too soon (trying to pre-empt reversals with no justification other than a gut feel), or too late (FOMO trades)

Most of my other bad habits are just derivatives of the above poor entries.  ie. Impatience, Impulsiveness etc.etc.


What is more important than the above problems is how I intend to fix them.  The solution is really pretty straight forward ...

I have a lot of trading "concepts" which I have developed/discovered over the last 12 months. Some have looked really interesting, but because I rarely write anything down, the ideas have never been optimized  ........... so,

I intend to turn my concepts into systems which can be traded via a set of rules and therefore evaluated with some accuracy ..... ie. Draw up a Play book of setups, both Pattern based and Range/Time based, and either back test or at least eye-ball test them to some depth.

With the above in mind, hopefully I can add to the thread in 12 months with some positive progress and substantially less ballsups 

If nothing else, your gentle jab in the ribs has "woken" me up a bit, so lets see if I can actually go to the next level and create something worthwhile out of it.

Cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> If nothing else, your gentle jab in the ribs has "woken" me up a bit, so lets see if I can actually go to the next level and create something worthwhile out of it.




Its always *MORE* or *LESS*.

Less. You can try to improve by concentrating on *not doing* what has caused you problems or,

More. You can try to improve by concentrating on * doing* what has been rewarded. (an idea, a hunch, a time, a setup, a system from these).

One takes massive energy and leads to procrastination and lack of motivation. If you are repeating something that doesn't reward you with more winning trades than losing trades it is serving some other 'need'. Impulsiveness is normally spoken about as lack of discipline when its probably lack of a proven path yet still needing to do 'something'. Trying to smash a square peg in a round hole while not breaking anything becomes a house of cards (nice mixing of metaphors! ) Sooner or latter the energy required to stay on track will lapse with disastrous results. 

The other gives you energy and sucks you in and enables you to do heaps of work without even noticing the time flying by. It adds to you rather than takes from you.


*MORE* or *LESS*.

I always choose more. :grinsking


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## tech/a

Just to add a little to my and T/Hs post.

I find when writing things down I find a common thread.

80% of that which is wrong will come from 20% of what you do.
80% of what you do right will come from 20% of what you do.

Just concentrate on your 20%

Known as the Perato Principal.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Its always *MORE* or *LESS*.
> 
> Less. You can try to improve by concentrating on *not doing* what has caused you problems or,
> 
> More. You can try to improve by concentrating on * doing* what has been rewarded. (an idea, a hunch, a time, a setup, a system from these).
> 
> One takes massive energy and leads to procrastination and lack of motivation.
> 
> If you are repeating something that doesn't reward you with more winning trades than losing trades it is serving some other 'need'.
> 
> Impulsiveness is normally spoken about as lack of discipline when its probably lack of a proven path yet still needing to do 'something'.
> 
> Trying to smash a square peg in a round hole while not breaking anything becomes a house of cards (nice mixing of metaphors! )
> 
> Sooner or latter the energy required to stay on track will lapse with disastrous results.
> 
> The other gives you energy and sucks you in and enables you to do heaps of work without even noticing the time flying by. It adds to you rather than takes from you.
> 
> 
> *MORE* or *LESS*.
> 
> I always choose more. :grinsking




Gold, thanks TH ..... You've pretty much described where I've been, where I'm at, and where I need to go in a few sentences  ...... Have you been studying psychology in your spare time  That post will get the benefit of a drawing pin and a spare bit of wall





Trembling Hand said:


> *Impulsiveness is normally spoken about as lack of discipline when its probably lack of a proven path yet still needing to do 'something'*.




Nailed me to a tee ............ back to the cave to start fixing that!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Just to add a little to my and T/Hs post.
> 
> I find when writing things down I find a common thread.
> 
> 80% of that which is wrong will come from 20% of what you do.
> 80% of what you do right will come from 20% of what you do.
> 
> *Just concentrate on your 20%*
> Known as the Perato Principal.




Cheers Tech   ...... Duly noted


----------



## dlineinvestor

Hi Barney,

Here might be the reason everytime you buy the markets turns on you ... 

The corruption of the world’s biggest currency dealers has been laid bare with regulators imposing fines of £2bn on five major banks for rigging the £3.5tn a day foreign exchange markets

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/12/banks-fined-record-2bn-foreign-exchange-rigging

 On another note : Waiting for a "play/plays that you know work at least 60% of the time is what it's all about. 
If you can remember this before taking a trade. "On the other side of this trade is going to be a professional trader or institution that wants to take my money. "Is this really one of my best plays ? Yes pull trigger No wait for the right play. I think a "quick check list before taking trades will help create a proper thinking pattern to keep one out of trouble. I mean really no one is in a hurry to fail right ? So take less trades and do what all the pro's did when they started. Develop that play book.
A beginner trader is always advised to wait for that "one good play. This is soley to build confidence. It's never about the money when first starting out. What makes money is showing "patience to wait for it"
Hence one of the main reasons most starting out fail.


----------



## dlineinvestor

dlineinvestor said:


> Hi Barney,
> 
> Here might be the reason everytime we buy and the markets turn on us ...
> 
> The corruption of the world’s biggest currency dealers has been laid bare with regulators imposing fines of £2bn on five major banks for rigging the £3.5tn a day foreign exchange markets
> 
> http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/12/banks-fined-record-2bn-foreign-exchange-rigging
> 
> On another note : Waiting for a "play/plays that you know work at least 60% of the time is what it's all about.
> If you can remember this before taking a trade. "On the other side of this trade is going to be a professional trader or institution that wants to take my money. "Is this really one of my best plays ? Yes pull trigger No wait for the right play. I think a "quick check list before taking trades will help create a proper thinking pattern to keep one out of trouble. I mean really no one is in a hurry to fail right ? So take less trades and do what all the pro's did when they started. Develop that play book.
> A beginner trader is always advised to wait for that "one good play. This is soley to build confidence. It should  never be about the money when first starting out. What makes money is showing "patience to wait for it" Money is the by product of proper trading
> Hence one of the main reasons most starting out fail. I have to apply everything mentioned here to myself past and present. Every time I break my rules it's ouch time ... lol




Barney just to correct some "grammar and add to the above   
"You can do this mate


----------



## barney

dlineinvestor said:


> "On the other side of this trade is going to be a professional trader or institution that wants to take my money.
> 
> I think a "quick check list before taking trades will help create a proper thinking pattern to keep one out of trouble. Develop that play book.
> 
> A beginner trader is always advised to wait for that "one good play.




Hi "D"  ..... interesting link re the Banks.  

Documenting a "play book" is definitely on top of the list.   

I've been in the "trial" stage with this micro FX account so rather than wait for trades I've been machine gunning it until the last couple of weeks mainly to get quick feedback.  Definitely a lot more selective on my larger account which has been positive over the last 12 months.

Interestingly enough my best trading is usually after I've butchered the micro account for a couple of hours then suddenly realise why I've been stuffing up .... swap to the bigger account and generally do ok 

Its like playing guitar  .... I've been playing for 40+ years, but that 15 minutes of warm up time is the key. The flexibility/dexterity is increased exponentially for that relatively small time frame ..... 

Trading seems very similar in process to me, but I'd like to knock the "warm up" time down to a reasonable time frame


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Its always *MORE* or *LESS*.
> 
> Less. You can try to improve by concentrating on *not doing* what has caused you problems or,
> 
> More. You can try to improve by concentrating on * doing* what has been rewarded. (an idea, a hunch, a time, a setup, a system from these).
> 
> One takes massive energy and leads to procrastination and lack of motivation. If you are repeating something that doesn't reward you with more winning trades than losing trades it is serving some other 'need'. Impulsiveness is normally spoken about as lack of discipline when its probably lack of a proven path yet still needing to do 'something'. Trying to smash a square peg in a round hole while not breaking anything becomes a house of cards (nice mixing of metaphors! ) Sooner or latter the energy required to stay on track will lapse with disastrous results.
> 
> The other gives you energy and sucks you in and enables you to do heaps of work without even noticing the time flying by. It adds to you rather than takes from you.
> 
> *MORE* or *LESS*.    I always choose more. :grinsking




Where are we  .... 7 years later ,,,,, and TH (Trembling Hand, is still my Hero ... Thank you my friend.)

I know TH is no longer a registered member of ASF , but if he happens to read this post, please message me!   

I believe I owe you a  carton of (insert your most favorite/expensive ale!!)

His message above was basically  .... Do what you are "good" at and stop trying to do what you are crap at (even if you think you are good at it!) ...ie. Play to your strengths. 

For others, I'm just reminiscing  (I'm old, lol) so please disregard  my unintelligible  ramblings


----------



## barney

ps Thanks Frog ... You are a legend    ....

Hope you and Mrs. Frog are still doing ok after the Vax etc.


Also thanks DF


----------

