# What are we buying on Monday?



## kid hustlr (7 March 2020)

Well what a few weeks it has been.

My buy and hold ETF portfolio has taken a walloping over the past fortnight but tomorrow is another day!

But some food for thought in the chart below:




We are already -8% this year.

- Interest rates are low
- We are in a seasonally strong period for the market

What's not to love?

So what shares look good? What are you buying? I personally will be buying some VAS on Monday morning as a apart of my ultra long term buy and hold portfolio but there must be some stocks out there looking good?

- Banks >10% yield?
- Miners 20% cheaper than 2 weeks ago?
- What about those gun market leaders that have held up relatively well vs the index over the past 2 weeks (CSL ?)

There has definitely been a clense of a whole bunch of market darlings over the past few weeks but there must be some stocks out there looking OK?


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## Sharkman (8 March 2020)

IVV + VEU for me, thinking about a regular dollar cost average into both on Monday as well.

not looking to add to my long term Aust portfolio any further for macro reasons, just holding on to what i have and reinvesting the divs from those into international (non currency hedged) ETFs.

sold some covered calls on BHP last week as soon as they went ex-div, will look to close out if i can buy them back for a small fraction of the original premium collected, though i suspect that if everything gets hammered, most of what i make on delta i will lose on vega when the IV spikes again.


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## kid hustlr (8 March 2020)

Yes Sharkman I've found myself preferring the non AUD etf' s as well mainly due to 'my over all net worth' being largely AUD.

It's just do happens to be VAS's turn


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

Thinking of buying some BHP, but probably more like Thursday for me.


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## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

Another one of those once in 10 years opportunities presenting IMO.
The ETFs should revalue down heavily some time this week. IMO


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## wayneL (8 March 2020)

Toilet paper, if I can find any.

Otherwise, I may short some gamma and add some precious metals. 

Really looking for ways to short fiat with without going all Mad Max.


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Really looking for ways to short fiat with without going all Mad Max.




Buy oil and copper producers?


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## Logique (8 March 2020)

What are we buying on Monday?

Puts?  Or yes toilet paper, if I can avoid getting beaten up in the aisle at Woolies - can't be any worse than in the climate change threads  What a bonanza for the (domestic) paper suppliers.

But you have a point Kid H - the value equation does look better than two weeks ago


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## Dona Ferentes (8 March 2020)

What, are we buying on Monday?

_- too soon, although I've got the cash sitting around. Not so sure that "buying the dips" will work, this time. 

Market is likely to be responding to monetary stimuli, not fiscal (as per reaction when Fed and RBA lowered, but market dropped)_


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## kid hustlr (8 March 2020)

Doesn't feel like there's many players rushing to sit on the bid tomorrow morning!

Any other's with thoughts? I do agree that plenty of charts look broken and if i was actively trading I would very likely be 100% cash at this point.

Secondly, I love the short currency / reflation theme but refuse to be someone who just piles into gold. Anyone else think it's strange the AUD rallied this week?

EDIT:

Did you know I can borrow money at 3.50% from the CBA then turn around and buy CBA stock with a gross yield of 8% ?


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## Knobby22 (8 March 2020)

The USA is virus ridden, we aren't seeing the whole truth due to political interference and lack of testing facilities. We shall see thousands of deaths in 6 weeks time. 

Not the time to buy.

Reason $A improving, that's why.


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

VVLU is the Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF (Managed Fund).

What's value right now is cyclicals, namely Financials, Oil/Gas, Basic Materials. All the stuff everybody is dumping that only does well when yield curve is steepening.

What's done well is curve flattener/duration sectors. Tech, Healthcare, REIT, Utilities...essentially all proxies for duration.


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## basilio (8 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Did you now I can borrow money at 3.50% from the CBA then turn around and buy CBA stock with a gross yield of 8% ?





Indeed you could.  All you have to do is be confident the Corona virus isn't going to create even more drama than is currently unfolding and that CBA will not be seriously affected by such drama (how could they be ??)  and that the current price is well near the bottom.

What is your judgement ?


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## Sharkman (8 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Toilet paper, if I can find any.
> 
> Otherwise, I may short some gamma and add some precious metals.
> 
> Really looking for ways to short fiat with without going all Mad Max.




here in Singapore we had our toilet paper crisis about 2 weeks ago. people will get over it soon (maybe) - there was plenty of toilet paper on the shelves when i went to the supermarket yesterday. or everyone simply ran out of space to store any more (properties tend to be tiny here given the lack of space in general).

short gamma but delta neutral? or directional?

i'm looking short gamma short delta. have sold some covered calls on bounces already. very reluctant to buy premium with IVs at this level. may look into selling an XJO call spread (probably ATM-25'ish delta) if it happens to rally 2 days in a row. IV will fall on the rally but on the last couple of bounces the delta skew stayed quite steep, very little demand for OTM calls in the current mood of pessimism.


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## basilio (8 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The USA is virus ridden, we aren't seeing the whole truth due to political interference and lack of testing facilities. We shall see thousands of deaths on 6 weeks time.
> 
> Not the time to buy.
> 
> Reason $A improving, that's why.




Really ? I understand from the Son of God that the Corona virus was a mere blip in the water , that no one (not many ) people would fall off the perch, that there were a million tests waiting to be used, that the government was absolutely at the top of it's game in preparation, that they had the very best person taking charge of the situation (Pence indeed...)
And of course 100million of the most fervent folk in the US have said "Amen" to these sentiments.


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## Knobby22 (8 March 2020)

Fake news Bas, according to Trump.
Be careful of thread drift.


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Doesn't feel like there's many players rushing to sit on the bid tomorrow morning!




What's the rush to buy the open? I don't get paid until Wednesday night.



> Secondly, I love the short currency / reflation theme but refuse to be someone who just piles into gold.




Normally I'd be selling gold and duration which have become overweights for me due to their stellar performance and using it to buy some stocks but I decided I'm just happy to leave them and accumulate my underweights back to equilibrium as new cash comes in.

I've been watching the coronavirus stuff for a couple of months now and just flabbergasted that the market wasn't falling and by luck I bought some June 63 puts on STW on the 21st Feb which has kept my cash levels up nicely. I even managed to sell the (previously worthless) March 56 puts I bought at the end of Nov 2019 at a slight profit! Unbelievable, when was the last time someone sold index puts for a *profit* 

That said, vol on the XJO doesn't seem to have gone to the same levels as in the US, yet, still well under 30 at the highs.





> Anyone else think it's strange the AUD rallied this week?




I don't agree with @Knobby22 that AUD is doing well because of Coronavirus in the US.

Is it AUD rally or USD decline? The US Dollar Index has been utterly monkeyhammered, but I'm not sure why. I would've expected a breakout above 100. Maybe traders pricing in a closing of the interest rate differential that has had the USD yielding way more than other currencies as the Fed does even more emergency cutting?

Nothing weird about the AUD finally not going down just a tiny bit in an environment where DXY drops 5%.

Probably worth adding USD to your Monday shopping list IMHO.



> Did you now I can borrow money at 3.50% from the CBA then turn around and buy CBA stock with a gross yield of 8% ?




Did you know that past yields have never been a predictor of future yields?


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## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

With regard the $US/Aud, we have an exposure to China through raw materials, the U.S has a huge exposure through manufacturing.
How many US companies have offshored their manufacturing to China e.g phones, computers and most other electronic components to name a few.


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

Just spotted this,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...hike-beginning-all-out-price-war?srnd=premium

Monday is going to be a fun day for oilers/BHP.


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## So_Cynical (8 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Did you know I can borrow money at 3.50% from the CBA then turn around and buy CBA stock with a gross yield of 8% ?




Money is cheap and getting cheaper, stimulus on the way, the market is the only place offering decent yields other than risky (ratesetter type) credit, growth is still the only game in town, at some point the pile in begins in spite of COVID19, infection rates in China have well and truly flattened, all the virus growth now is ex China.


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## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Money is cheap and getting cheaper, stimulus on the way, the market is the only place offering decent yields other than risky (ratesetter type) credit, growth is still the only game in town, at some point the pile in begins in spite of COVID19, infection rates in China have well and truly flattened, all the virus growth now is ex China.



Add to that Australia hasnt had a massive run since the GFC, now we have a major retraction, I cant see a better game in town, as you say.


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Money is cheap and getting cheaper, stimulus on the way, the market is the only place offering decent yields other than risky (ratesetter type) credit, growth is still the only game in town




I always find it funny when people say this kind of thing.

In Japan money was "cheap and getting cheaper" in the 90s, stimulus of every type attempted, with equities being the only place offering "decent yields", *none* of that saved the equity market there.

If money is so cheap and plentiful, why are CBs all over the world forever trying to gush even more? If the RBA setting rates at 1.5% for 5 years was cheap money while the Fed/ECB/PBoC have been doing all their stimulus, why are our GDP and inflation numbers keep getting worse?

It's almost as if *none* of that actually matters for future equity returns.



sptrawler said:


> Add to that Australia hasnt had a massive run since the GFC, now we have a major retraction, I cant see a better game in town, as you say.




We did have a pretty massive run in total return terms, it just doesn't show up in the free charting tools because it got paid out as dividends rather than buybacks like in the US.

Is there really a perception that this drop is a "major retraction"? This is nothing, not even in comparison to other post GFC blips. We dropped more than this in 2018 and that was just a market tantrum!


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## kid hustlr (8 March 2020)

To be fair Japan is a pretty unique case (didn't it run like 8 fold in a 10 year period prior to the crash?).

This could definitely be the start of a huge crash. Very possible. It's also possible markets move past this in 3 months time.

Trade & Invest to your plan


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## qldfrog (8 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Buy oil and copper producers?



Oil yes copper not yet


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> To be fair Japan is a pretty unique case (didn't it run like 8 fold in a 10 year period prior to the crash?).




Hmmm yeah, pretty unique...




Was Japan unique, or just first? ZIRP, QE, POMO, these are all terms Japan was using in the 90s.


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## qldfrog (8 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Oil yes copper not yet



And not tomorrow at open let it time to go lower this week


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## kid hustlr (8 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Hmmm yeah, pretty unique...
> 
> View attachment 101114
> 
> ...




Lol point taken. Does QQQ include dividends or something, just eyeballing the Nasdaq index it only looks 7 fold in the chart. S&P is a better benchmark imo


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## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I always find it funny when people say this kind of thing.
> 
> In Japan money was "cheap and getting cheaper" in the 90s, stimulus of every type attempted, with equities being the only place offering "decent yields", *none* of that saved the equity market there.
> 
> ...



That is all true, but regarding Japan, they import everything from energy to raw materials, had a massive run up post 1960 with making a quality product at a reasonable price, this was then reflected in their living standard and then along came China and SE Asia then they faced the same problem as the U.S.
We on the other hand have copious amounts of energy, raw materials and a small population.
Also a massive overseas interest in living here, so there is plenty of money, yet to come into circulation. So IMO we are still  in a growing phase as far as economic growth goes, for how long ?
But I personally think there is still plenty of steam left, time will tell, but I dont think this is going to be a GFC style fall.
Just my guess.


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## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> This is nothing, not even in comparison to other post GFC blips. We dropped more than this in 2018 and that was just a market tantrum!



That's the primary reason I don't think we've seen the bottom yet.

The market hasn't even entered a bear market whilst the impacts on the real economy are real and rapidly mounting.

That said, I'm thinking the market drops 25% from its peak not 75% in terms of order of magnitude.


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## peter2 (8 March 2020)

I'm not willing to buy just yet (other than a few gold stocks). The ASX was sold off heavily Friday evening. We're going to open very low and may rally a little during the day. 

My next high probability trade is to short the VIX, both here and in the US. I will start small though. I'm not anticipating a V reversal but a U one. 

The first qtr results will be very interesting and we may see further dips then with the drop in earnings.


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## InsvestoBoy (8 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is all true, but regarding Japan, they import everything from energy to raw materials, had a massive run up post 1960 with making a quality product at a reasonable price, this was then reflected in their living standard and then along came China and SE Asia then they faced the same problem as the U.S.
> We on the other hand have copious amounts of energy, raw materials and a small population.




They import energy/raw materials and export a lot, they run a balance of trade surplus every year for a long time.

We have copious energy, raw materials and import everything, even our oil. Consistent deficit balance of trade.

I'm not sure what the point is, are you saying Japans economy suffered all this time because they consistently produce some of the worlds most valuable stuff?



> Also a massive overseas interest in living here, so there is plenty of money, yet to come into circulation. So IMO we are still  in a growing phase as far as economic growth goes, for how long ?




Two points, 

1. We are importing growth as you say, which keeps the raw GDP growing, but GDP per capita not so much, so we grow but nobody feels any benefit of it. As I heard a smart guy say about this, "well done Australia, too bad Australians."...

2. In terms of investment performance in assets like stocks, long duration, gold, that GDP is still growing matters much less than the rate of change of GDP growth (and inflation) has been slowing YoY and looks to continue to.



> But I personally think there is still plenty of steam left, time will tell, but I dont think this is going to be a GFC style fall.
> Just my guess.




Who knows, this is what is so funny about having these conversations, you can't debunk economic tourist talking points like "cheap money, stimulus, blah" without people inferring you're saying the GFC 2 is on its way. That being said, it really just is the stock market which isn't acting GFC-ey, bonds, commodities, AUD, all are back there.


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## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> They import energy/raw materials and export a lot, they run a balance of trade surplus every year for a long time.
> 
> We have copious energy, raw materials and import everything, even our oil. Consistent deficit balance of trade.
> 
> ...



I agree with your points, but the market is emotionally driven, not driven by common sense.
We on here for a long time, have been saying Australia is in for a drop in living standards, however the question is will the corona virus be the catalyst that causes a mass fall in our market.
I don't think so, our small and relatively young population and easily accessible raw materials is a very big buffer, which wont last forever but I feel it isn't at the tipping point yet.
Stimulus IMO is nothing but a band aid placebo, to give the masses a sense of security and restore some confidence. Realistically can the Government spend enough to turn around an economy? IMO No, that requires structural change and an increase in productivity.
At the end of the day, people working and spending is what makes the World go around, not Governments throwing morsels around.

Japan has had a problem with deflation for years, as a result of its own success and rapid growth, their wages, affluence and cost soared to stupid levels. Then when tightening happened the bubble burst and has been deflating for years.
https://www.thebalance.com/japan-s-lost-decade-brief-history-and-lessons-1979056


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## peter2 (8 March 2020)

I'm tempted to buy some of the big discounts in the market atm but have to remind myself that this is not my trading style. I've no track record of doing this. The few times I've tried doing something like this with GEAR didn't turn out very well because I chickened out adding to the position as it started to go up.

_My shopping list_:
CCP: ASF'ers remain keen on this company. Same with CSL, RMD, COH.
TNE: I've already bought some but was too early.
CAJ, CMM: Look OK
IVC: If the price goes lower.
ALX and TCL: Toll collectors and they keep collecting while raising the tolls.
TLG and ADN: A couple of spec's that have not been sold off during this fall.
MYX and SRG are a couple that I'll *never* buy despite how low they may go.

I've got a list of strong stocks but I'll need to wait for reversal setups before buying any in this list.


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## moXJO (8 March 2020)

China may be the key reason we boom or bust.
I'm not sure of the lag time on imports/exports.

We are pretty much their supermarket.
*Australia* supplies 61 per cent of *China's* iron ore, 53 per cent of its coal and 23 per cent of its thermal coal.
Food, education, tourism, etc.

Everyone is bearish and with good reason(I am too). But should we be looking for the bull from left field?


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## frugal.rock (8 March 2020)

Not sure about Monday morning yet...but,
Have been working with *NZC*,* SWF, *EHH, these 3 have lifted my pfolio/cash by 10%... profit realised in the last 2 weeks.
Not feeling the burn... moved earlier in the piece.
Keeping tabs on BRN, BUD, *EN1*, TYR, *Z1P*, TTT, GOR, *FAU*, AUZ. Those last 3 being gold related. Stocks in bold are held.
*SWF* in trading halt.

F.Rock


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## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> They import energy/raw materials and export a lot, they run a balance of trade surplus every year for a long time.
> 
> We have copious energy, raw materials and import everything, even our oil. Consistent deficit balance of trade.
> 
> ...




Further to my last post when comparing GDP per capita between Japan and Australia, we are quite a way ahead, in 2017 our GDP per capita was $49,000 whereas Japans was $42,000.
Also as we both said ours is a growing younger population, mainly due to importing people and money, as opposed to Japans aging population.
https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a bull about this, but I hopefully don't miss an opportunity because I'm overly nervous.


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## joeno (8 March 2020)

Oil is heading to $30... Putin threatened Saudis and US Shale with increased production. Price war. I'd short the Aussie oilers unless somebody has a better strategy


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## qldfrog (8 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> *Australia* supplies 61 per cent of *China's* iron ore, 53 per cent of its coal and 23 per cent of its thermal coal.



I am pretty sure that what you mean is Australia supplies .xxx..of China imports....
A very big difference for coal especially where by far most of China's coal is domestic.
should their economy slow down, imports will not slow down, they will disappear completely, unsure about iron situation but coal on its own can collapse our economy
It is a very important point that every one conveniently forgets..


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## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Everyone is bearish and with good reason(I am too). But should we be looking for the bull from left field?



I think a distinction needs to be made here between the "end of the world" sort of view versus that which fits into the "bottom is coming but we haven't seen it yet" sort of view.

Both could be considered bearish short term but one is long term bullish.


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## Sharkman (8 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's the primary reason I don't think we've seen the bottom yet.
> 
> The market hasn't even entered a bear market whilst the impacts on the real economy are real and rapidly mounting.




i agree, but i don't know for sure where the bottom will be, and neither does anybody else.

i do know however that if i don't dollar cost average in on a semi-regular basis, something like this will happen: not quite at the bottom yet... just a little bit further down then i'll buy... this is just a dead cat bounce, should wait for another fall... this rally seems to have run out of legs, don't want to get head faked, just hold off a little bit more... oh wow it's right back up to where it was before, and i'm holding all this cash, how did that happen?


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## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

Sharkman said:


> i do know however that if i don't dollar cost average in on a semi-regular basis, something like this will happen: not quite at the bottom yet... just a little bit further down then i'll buy... this is just a dead cat bounce, should wait for another fall... this rally seems to have run out of legs, don't want to get head faked, just hold off a little bit more... oh wow it's right back up to where it was before, and i'm holding all this cash, how did that happen?



That has familiar ring to it.
As you say, if you are in for the long run, quality always bounces and dollar cost averaging is important.


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## tinhat (9 March 2020)

no buy


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## Logique (9 March 2020)

Enjoying the thread discussions. I think a V-shape recovery is hard to see now. Relentless flow of bad news.

Hits to the bottom line take a while to flow through the system and be reported. Also a technical recession is looking ever more possible for Aus


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## So_Cynical (9 March 2020)

Wow 6% - it's been 11 and a half years since we have seen falls like that, im genuinely surprised at the scale of the sell off.


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## princeplanet (9 March 2020)

Luckily my stops cut me out of the market after a 5% drop from the top. It's now close to a 20% drop. Days like this don't come around too often, so who's buying today? I gotta admit to a rather large case of FOMO...


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## basilio (9 March 2020)

princeplanet said:


> Luckily my stops cut me out of the market after a 5% drop from the top. It's now close to a 20% drop. Days like this don't come around too often, so who's buying today? I gotta admit to a rather large case of FOMO...




I ....  don't......    think.....  so..... There are so many challenging factors at play here -  oil price collapse, collapsing industrial production, collapsing transport and leisure industries,  to name just a few.

Corporate survival  in the next 12 months will the main game IMV.  Actually identifying who will survive and getting into them at some stage would be a worthwhile effort.

And maybe shorting the hell out of ones you believe will fall over or just need a nudge.


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## So_Cynical (9 March 2020)

A panic sold a few...i feel weird.


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## Dona Ferentes (9 March 2020)

sea of *RED*

and smashed at close


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## Dona Ferentes (9 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Wow 6% - it's been 11 and a half years since we have seen falls like that, im genuinely surprised at the scale of the sell off.



round it off .... call it 7


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## Smurf1976 (9 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't think we've seen the bottom yet.




I wasn't expecting that to be proven correct quite so quickly and/or dramatically......

I thought we might at least get some sort of a bounce before going lower but not so it seems.


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## moXJO (9 March 2020)

I remember the panic sell of the gfc. I think I had a free Huntleys subscription. They were giving buy orders all the way down. When it kept dropping they lost their sht and admitted they didn't know where it was going to go to. May have recommended selling because they couldn't see the bottom.
I thought that was a signal to buy and got lucky on the timing.

This time doesn't look that much different.

Stimulus (the great reversal) must be on its way. Otherwise everyone's super accounts will evaporate


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## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I remember the panic sell of the gfc. I think I had a free Huntleys subscription. They were giving buy orders all the way down. When it kept dropping they lost their sht and admitted they didn't know where it was going to go to. May have recommended selling because they couldn't see the bottom.
> I thought that was a signal to buy and got lucky on the timing.
> 
> This time doesn't look that much different.
> ...



Yes these are the times when people actually make a lot of money, but it isn't for the faint hearted, I wonder how many younger people are going to take the plunge and jump in?

How many times have we heard, the baby boomers were lucky they had the GFC and the market growth afterwards, well now it is opportunity time for the next generation.
What is the old saying about faint heart never ...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...s-smashed-in-market-rout-20200309-p5488o.html


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## CBerg (9 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes these are the times when people actually make a lot of money, but it isn't for the faint hearted, I wonder how many younger people are going to take the plunge and jump in?
> 
> How many times have we heard, the baby boomers were lucky they had the GFC and the market growth afterwards, well now it is opportunity time for the next generation.
> What is the old saying about faint heart never ...
> ...



I moved 7% of my super from bonds into equities on Friday 28th Feb. Will do another 5% tomorrow probably. I had 17% ish of my super in bonds.


I also put money to work late January and also last week, not an index investor so there's a tonne more red than if I was an index investor but also usually a tonne more green than the index. I'm happy to wait 30 years before I need to start drawing down on this stuff.


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## qldfrog (9 March 2020)

I was surprised by the fall of oil and ended up buying OOO too high at $9.15 average as my orders were taken.....unheard fall;
I had an overall OK day due to the PMGOLD, BBOZ and shorts I keep ranting about sold about...
Can you imagine that just last week: I could buy
QANC47 :qantas put @4.8 may bought  4/03/2020 @0.38 sold today  @ 0.85 
FMGWY8  forescue put $9 may bought 3/03/2020 27 @ 0.43 sold today@ 0.99 
More than the actual overall fall today the craziness of the market reaching high  late last month whereas the economic signs where everywhere to be seen..


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## InsvestoBoy (9 March 2020)

Sharkman said:


> i agree, but i don't know for sure where the bottom will be, and neither does anybody else.
> 
> i do know however that if i don't dollar cost average in on a semi-regular basis, something like this will happen: not quite at the bottom yet... just a little bit further down then i'll buy... this is just a dead cat bounce, should wait for another fall... this rally seems to have run out of legs, don't want to get head faked, just hold off a little bit more... oh wow it's right back up to where it was before, and i'm holding all this cash, how did that happen?




This is recency bias.


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## InsvestoBoy (9 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> That said, vol on the XJO doesn't seem to have gone to the same levels as in the US, yet, still well under 30 at the highs.







Still pretty chill, all things considered.

I suspect AUDUSD/AUDJPY/AUDCNY is acting as a massive shock absorber for both our economy and our stock market.

So did you bid the open on VAS @kid hustlr?


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## InsvestoBoy (9 March 2020)

I'm now nearly 6% underweight equities, looking forward to putting some money to work on payday!


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## kid hustlr (9 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> View attachment 101146
> 
> 
> Still pretty chill, all things considered.
> ...




Sure did!

Should have waited til close cost myself a few bucks there.

All part of the accumulation plan although I must admit it's pretty scary seeing the swings .

Confirms 2 things for me (which I already knew)

1. I'm very comfortable with my buy and hold portfolio and process
2. I could never have a large % of my wealth in a simple buy and hold portfolio, as the pot grows I will need to explore other avenues, an 8% down day whilst Im accumulating on a 
'relatively' small base vs an 8% draw down in 20 years as I near the end of my working life is a completely different kettle of fish


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## kid hustlr (9 March 2020)

Aussie Dollar flash crash, POO on it's knees and still the AUD won't go down


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## The Triangle (9 March 2020)

Bought Select Harvests, Tassal, fleetwood and API.   Minimal debts with SHV and FWD - which is always good in a bad time to have, people still going to eat almonds, and buildings still need to be built - cheap prefab ones would presumably be more popular now.  Tassal and API have been on my buy list but felt they were overpriced.  Not anymore.  Fish and drugs - also should be fairly stable.  

Have yet to decide if I will add to the wreckage of what I have in other investments.   Disappointing that I added to FXL, VRT and CCV Friday.  Hurt this morning.  I've put back in to the market on Friday and today what I've spent the last several months taking out.   Probably should have waited a week.  Don't have a good feeling that this is the bottom.    Thank you Russia and Saudi Arabia.


----------



## UMike (9 March 2020)

Not the bottom. Got alotta Mondays to go till I get back in.


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## peter2 (9 March 2020)

US VIX is getting up there. I'll be starting a short position soon knowing that it can go higher.


----------



## frugal.rock (9 March 2020)

UMike said:


> Not the bottom. Got alotta Mondays to go till I get back in.



I agree. It's going to be long and drawn out with lots of volatility.
The chart for the asx 200 today shows the market just getting slapped down again at every attempt of a slowdown, except for late lunch rally.

F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (10 March 2020)

peter2 said:


> US VIX is getting up there. I'll be starting a short position soon knowing that it can go higher.
> 
> View attachment 101157



It think it looks good for a long position whilst your waiting for your short position? 
From your chart, it's obviously a run to cover index, thus the thought.
The panic is only just starting to get into full swing...! 
Hope the trade goes well, hope to hear how it pans out.
Am hoping for a rally tomorrow, but not holding my breath.

F.Rock


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## moXJO (10 March 2020)

Stimulus will start this week....


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## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Stimulus will start this week....



Sadly i think we have to say:
And?
Is the stimulus going to bring more students or tourists here?
Are you going to take the plane or. Go to a restaurant?
The worthwhile stimulus would be to convert concert halls and sport venue in ICU..but i bet all respirators parts are locked in China..
Will see..we will need to help some business survive etc
But i doubt it should be enough to support the market


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## Logique (10 March 2020)

The stimulus suggestion from Adam Creighton on Twitter is worth thinking about, it would certainly put more money in people's pockets. As a temporary response only:

_"The best possible stimulus would be *suspension of mandatory superannuation contributions*, supercharging take-home pay by around 10 per cent and avoiding the waste that accompanies government spending."
Adam Creighton
@Adam_Creighton ·18h
_


----------



## basilio (10 March 2020)

Logique said:


> The stimulus suggestion from Adam Creighton on Twitter is worth thinking about, it would certainly put more money in people's pockets. As a temporary response only:
> 
> _"The best possible stimulus would be *suspension of mandatory superannuation contributions*, supercharging take-home pay by around 10 per cent and avoiding the waste that accompanies government spending."
> Adam Creighton
> @Adam_Creighton ·18h_




Really ?  Totally contradictory and  quite nonsensical.

One might argue for temporarily diverting super contributions to wages.  But wait a minute if that happened a significant proportion would end up as tax ! Isn't the employer super contribution effectively post tax ? And the super funds will have enough problems dealing with the decline in the share market let along a stop on super contribution input.

And then "avoiding the waste that accompanies government spending ".  Where does that come from ?  The super funds have nothing to do with government spending. On top of that* everyone* is now  demanding  government injection of funds to save businesses, people and the public health system that is the final bastion protecting us from this virus.

Maybe he misspoke but this is  far from his finest tweet.


----------



## basilio (10 March 2020)

Ok perhaps Adam Creighton should have put a full stop after his statement about  diverting super to current pay. *THEN *he could make the  separate still nonsensical comment about avoiding the waste in government spending.

Still think both these ideas are wrong headed and miss the urgent need to stabilise and support people and businesses through these challenging times.


----------



## Bill M (10 March 2020)

Don't tinker with Super. All of this years contributions are going to be buying shares and REIT's at low entry prices building a sound foundation for future growth and dividend payments. I would rather be buying units now at a 25% + discount than the silly highs we recently got too. If anything, if I was still working I would increase contributions not stop them.


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## CBerg (10 March 2020)

Logique said:


> The stimulus suggestion from Adam Creighton on Twitter is worth thinking about, it would certainly put more money in people's pockets. As a temporary response only:
> 
> _"The best possible stimulus would be *suspension of mandatory superannuation contributions*, supercharging take-home pay by around 10 per cent and avoiding the waste that accompanies government spending."
> Adam Creighton
> @Adam_Creighton ·18h_



Typically super is not paid into a super fund on a payday, it usually happens at month end(if you're lucky) or end of quarter.

Payroll can be hard enough as I explained in the thread about underpaid staff, making said suggestion sounds simple on the surface but it would hard for most businesses to implement in a timely fashion which I think is what the stimulus would be trying to achieve.


----------



## wayneL (10 March 2020)

Stimulus, even if necessary (and I am left thinking about the term "moral hazard" once again) is coming way too early in my opinion. This is a government in panic mode.

There are a fair few more shoes to drop yet and if I were in government I would be sitting back and keeping my powder dry.

As such it is perpetuating and exacerbating the problem.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

FOMO is back, at least short term

ASX200 this morning. 5750 to 5550 and back


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## CBerg (10 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Stimulus, even if necessary (and I am left thinking about the term "moral hazard" once again) is coming way too early in my opinion. This is a government in panic mode.
> 
> There are a fair few more shoes to drop yet and if I were in government I would be sitting back and keeping my powder dry.
> 
> As such it is perpetuating and exacerbating the problem.



I think a big problem is we having middle management running the show when you need a team of leaders, applies to both sides not just the government.

They manage the news cycle & deal with peoples expectations in the moment without any real plan for what they want to have happened in 3-5 years time, let alone where they think we should be aiming for in 10-20 years.


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## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Stimulus, even if necessary (and I am left thinking about the term "moral hazard" once again) is coming way too early in my opinion. This is a government in panic mode.
> 
> There are a fair few more shoes to drop yet and if I were in government I would be sitting back and keeping my powder dry.
> 
> As such it is perpetuating and exacerbating the problem.



It depends on how they spend it IMO, if it has long term benefits for the Australian public fine, if it is just another throw it out of the window plan that we have to carry ad infinitum .


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> I think a big problem is we having middle management running the show when you need a team of leaders, applies to both sides not just the government.
> 
> They manage the news cycle & deal with peoples expectations in the moment without any real plan for what they want to have happened in 3-5 years time, let alone where they think we should be aiming for in 10-20 years.



I agree with you, after the GFC it should have been a wake up call, that events out of the ordinary happen and there should be a list of stimulus initiatives drawn up ready to roll out.
Not obviously the logistics, stores etc, but a comprehensive plan that can be set in motion, that gives and orderly path to follow, be that regarding water infrastructure, transport infrastructure, health or power infrastructure.
Something like a wish list, that can be activated and fast tracked in case of an emergency. Not only would it help the economy, it would give confidence to the population, that someone is actually pro active, rather than re active.


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## basilio (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with you, after the GFC it should have been a wake up call, that events out of the ordinary happen and there should be a list of stimulus initiatives drawn up ready to roll out.
> Not obviously the logistics, stores etc, but a comprehensive plan that can be set in motion, that gives and orderly path to follow, be that regarding water infrastructure, transport infrastructure, health or power infrastructure.
> Something like a wish list, that can be activated and fast tracked in case of an emergency. Not only would it help the economy, it would give confidence to the population, that someone is actually pro active, rather than re active.




Are you aware that in fact Treasury did have the "break open in disaster" plans ready  for the GFC ? The plans always had to be easy to implement, quick, relatively simple and scalable. There wasn't much point in starting project with long lead times.  They also needed to offer real ongoing value to the community. 

That was the school halls project and others.

https://treasury.gov.au/speech/australias-response-to-the-global-financial-crisis


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## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Are you aware that in fact Treasury did have the "break open in disaster" plans ready  for the GFC ? The plans always had to be easy to implement, quick, relatively simple and scalable. There wasn't much point in starting project with long lead times.  They also needed to offer real ongoing value to the community.
> 
> That was the school halls project and others.
> 
> https://treasury.gov.au/speech/australias-response-to-the-global-financial-crisis



Well if that was a trail run, one hopes they have improved with what they put behind the 'break glass', this time.
You never know Bas, it might be free house batteries for all.


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## basilio (10 March 2020)

Probably worth reading the Treasury report to understand their thinking and the outcomes they achieved. 
Australia manged to avoid  prolonged recession and the worst fallout from the GFC.


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## wayneL (10 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Probably worth reading the Treasury report to understand their thinking and the outcomes they achieved.
> Australia manged to avoid  prolonged recession and the worst fallout from the GFC.



I think the minerals supercycle saved us more than pink bats and a $900 cheque, a great deal of which probably ended up in the black and deep black economy.

This time I think it is going to be p1ssing into the wind.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2020)

As Chou En Lai the head of the CPOC said when asked about what effect the French Revolution had on Chinese politics.

"Its too early to say"

It is also too early, way to early to predict when to buy or to sell for that matter.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As Chou En Lai said when asked about what effect the French Revolution had on Chinese politics.
> 
> "Its too early to say"



 or NOT. He was referring to _les événements _of '68


> Richard Nixon's translator was there in the early 1970s and now decides to put the record straight. At a recent seminar in Washington on Henry Kissinger's new book, On China, Chas Freeman said it was a misunderstanding 'too delicious' to correct.



https://www.scmp.com/article/970657/not-letting-facts-ruin-good-story


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## InsvestoBoy (10 March 2020)

One thing I kept noticing today was the market was rallying pretty hard after Trumps comments about big stimulus but VVLU wasn't getting the lift at all, even though the biggest gainers today looked like those cyclical sectors it was holding.

Looked like free money with Energy, Financials, Resources up so much but VVLU down 3-4%...


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## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Probably worth reading the Treasury report to understand their thinking and the outcomes they achieved.
> Australia manged to avoid  prolonged recession and the worst fallout from the GFC.



This synopsis by the RBA, gives a fairly good account of the GFC and the effect on Australia. I posted it in another thread but may be worth re posting here. The stimulus was nice, it did look good, but it wasn't what saved Australia's ar$e. 
If the Australian Banks had been exposed to the consolidated subprime debt obligations and if China hadn't gone into balistic overdrive building 'empty' Cities and if the Government wasn't debt free and running a surplus, we would have been another Greece.
Just another take on it.
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/the-global-financial-crisis.html


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## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> ... we would have been another Greece.



free float currency, (no EC). Still 300mill rural poor to migrate to cities. Banks are really big building societies (CDwhoa's). Debt is a worry though


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## InsvestoBoy (11 March 2020)

Sold some GSBE47, bought some QUS today.


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## moXJO (11 March 2020)

Gerry Harvey dropped $15million on Friday and lost $1.5million by Monday.
#richguyproblem


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## frugal.rock (11 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> if China hadn't gone into balistic overdrive building 'empty' Cities and if the Government wasn't debt free and running a surplus, we would have been another Greece.



Or another Italy in the making....
at least Tiramisu and Spaghetti will be cheap....

F.Rock


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## moXJO (13 March 2020)

Anyone on any small caps that were looking good


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## moXJO (13 March 2020)

Stop staring at your trading screens and give me freebie analysis

I'm like the kid on the morning of the test he didn't study for.


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## jbocker (13 March 2020)

A few nice beers.
(And have them in the quiet part of the garden).


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## moXJO (13 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> A few nice beers.
> (And have them in the quiet part of the garden).



Cicada trading for me. Underground for over a decade, then noisy as all hell for 2 weeks.

Takes a long time between crashes...


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## Dona Ferentes (13 March 2020)

Market seems to be punishing everything. And, in minnow-world, especially those with no cash flow, or high debt levels and the like.



moXJO said:


> Anyone on any small caps that were looking good



 But, sitting with $40mill from recent raise, no debt, is GSS, whose proprietary platform technology, 3Base™, they claim, is able to detect Covid-19.

Up 2%, but with a gap, on a down day (probably because Thorney TEK mentioned it and their PR machine got a plug in a national daily)


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## moXJO (13 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Market seems to be punishing everything. And, in minnow-world, especially those with no cash flow, or high debt levels and the like.
> 
> But, sitting with $40mill from recent raise, no debt, is GSS, whose proprietary platform technology, 3Base™, they claim, is able to detect Covid-19.
> 
> ...



Cheers D


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## InsvestoBoy (13 March 2020)

Bought some more QUS today.


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## IrishDigger (15 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Anyone on any small caps that were looking good




BCT and SEN


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## moXJO (18 March 2020)

What's the go with bhp?


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## kid hustlr (18 March 2020)

It might be days, it might be months or it might be years, but at some point this market is going to offer a tremendous opportunity for those who are good enough to take it.


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## moXJO (18 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> It might be days, it might be months or it might be years, but at some point this market is going to offer a tremendous opportunity for those who are good enough to take it.



I'm getting ready for distressed assets sold for cheap. Hopefully it won't come to that and this thing sorts out before.


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## kid hustlr (18 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> It might be days, it might be months or it might be years, but at some point this market is going to offer a tremendous opportunity for those who are good enough to take it.




Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.

End of Rant.

To provide some substance to this post here' an all ords chart with an ATR indicator. We are almost at GFC extremes (and probably are as the indicator is lagging). Crazy times. Don't think it's ever been this steep

Interesting to see that divergence between the ATR and price at extremes seem like a pretty buy signal, aka volatility drops but price moves lower, thats the signal to enter.


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## CBerg (18 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.
> 
> End of Rant.
> 
> ...



I like the idea of buying but my balance sheet doesn't have unlimited buy capacity either. I probably fired my shots off earlier at the end of last month. If I had cash to spare I'd probably be buying up hand over fist.

I'm not an index buyer so I want to understand the balance sheet(will it survive in a credit scarce environment) and earnings outlook. What are the opportunities you're eyeing off? I've got a few up my sleeves but I think I've already posted on a lot in the individual stocks thread over time anyway.


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## InsvestoBoy (19 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Probably worth adding USD to your Monday shopping list IMHO.




Anyone buy some USD?


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## InsvestoBoy (19 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.
> 
> End of Rant.




I was selling when you were buying and I've been buying when appropriate! The stuff I bought hasn't gone further down so I am fully allocated.

Long duration bonds have gotten creamed recently so I'm actually a bit underweight there as I sold some while it was overweight and then it went down.

I'll probably buy some of those next!


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## sptrawler (19 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.
> 
> End of Rant.



I've been nibbling away at Banks, LIC's & CWY, but I'm down 30%+ overall on the portfolio. I think opportunities will present going forward and when my term deposit matures in June, there may still be opportunities.


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## kid hustlr (19 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Anyone buy some USD?




75% of my shares are in offshore holdings with USD a big chunk of that based on weightings.

I've always been a firm believer that aussies who hold property should be 'hedging' (not the correct term in this context) with USD and some gold/bitcoin however my ratios probably weren't high enough given recent events. 

Cberg, I think any stocks which have held up well on a relative basis are worth a look. From there filtering out the traditional safe havens (gold shares / Woolies,Coles etc) probably gives a decent starting point.

At some point the deep fundamental investor are going to spot some real bargains I would think.

Would you rather be short or long right now?


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## Ferret (19 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think opportunities will present going forward and when my term deposit matures in June, there may still be opportunities.




I think the best opportunities might not be until after June.


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## CBerg (19 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> ...
> Cberg, I think any stocks which have held up well on a relative basis are worth a look. From there filtering out the traditional safe havens (gold shares / Woolies,Coles etc) probably gives a decent starting point.
> 
> At some point the deep fundamental investor are going to spot some real bargains I would think.
> ...



I don't know, I'm trying to piece it together.


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## wayneL (19 March 2020)

Ferret said:


> I think the best opportunities might not be until after June.



June 2025?


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## sptrawler (19 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> I don't know, I'm trying to piece it together.



Any business that hasn't got a strong business model, or strong balance sheet, or isn't funded by Local, State or Federal Government, is going to struggle to survive. IMO
This appears to be the 25 year, wash, rinse, repeat event.
Just my thoughts.


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## CBerg (19 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Any business that hasn't got a strong business model, or strong balance sheet, or isn't funded by Local, State or Federal Government, is going to struggle to survive. IMO
> This appears to be the 25 year, wash, rinse, repeat event.
> Just my thoughts.



Exactly, "balance sheets don't matter until they do" is a quote I've read before and I think summarizes my investing outlook broadly, even in the good markets I like a strong balance sheet.

As mentioned previously I don't have unlimited buy power, I'm only starting out the investing journey really so every bit counts but mistakes are costly too.


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## Sharkman (19 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.




i DCA'd once into IVV + VEU as planned, a couple of days after you created this thread, but have basically done nothing else. i'll look to do the same again at some point, maybe in a couple of weeks on another big down day, but no immediate hurry as i don't want to burn thru all my ammo too quickly. however for the next DCA if AUD/USD has dropped to anywhere near 0.5000, i might switch in IHVV instead of IVV.

the only other trade i've done since the start of this thread is sold 2 (yes two!) contracts of BHP OTM puts, for a couple of reasons;

1) my BHP holding is 200 short of a round number due to weird lot sizes in some options i got assigned a while ago (sometimes BHP contracts go to 104 lot sizes for reasons that are still unclear to me), so wouldn't mind getting assigned on these puts to top it up to a nice round number at a sizable discount to the current price and if not, i still collect some decent time decay, and

2) i wanted to find out just how much of the spread the MMs would make me cross in this sort of market, and for that purpose i was fully prepared to cross as much of that spread as i had to in order to get a fill (given that it was only 2 contracts i didn't really care about having to cross the gigantic spread, was mainly doing it for science), by moving it in a tick or two every few seconds. much to my surprise, i got filled very near the mid (1.19 into a 0.80/1.59 spread) for a cool 100 IV at the time, or in other terms 4.4% of the stock price for 12 trading days of decay.

i'm also aware of the irony here given i complained in another thread about the move to 100 lot sizes resulting in some of my 50 or 100 contract orders getting annoyingly nibbled at by 2 or 3 contract trades in the past. but now the nibbled has become the nibbler!

i'm glad i did that trade though, probably the most useful aspect of the trade is the information i got that maybe options aren't quite as untradeable in this market as i first thought, despite the huge spreads, at least in the very liquid names. looking to sell premium into these super high vols might be worthwhile, eg. sell short dated covered calls or vertical calls on those occasional but huge one day rallies.


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## Ferret (19 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> June 2025?




That could well be right.


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## InsvestoBoy (23 March 2020)

Sold my puts a bit earlier today.

Bought some more QUS.

Bonds have bounced back sharply, didn't get a chance to buy last weeks dip in GSBE47 there.

All of this means I'm a bit overweight cash/gold and underweight stocks/bonds vs my desired allocation but things are moving fast and as long as the numbers stay +/- 5% of my desired 25% allocations I am comfortable to move with a bit more caution towards the next rebalance.


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## InsvestoBoy (23 March 2020)

Payday on Wednesday so I need to think about where that cash will go too.


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## moXJO (23 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Sold my puts a bit earlier today.
> 
> Bought some more QUS.
> 
> ...



Is there a thread where you explain your system?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (23 March 2020)

There's a bunch of posts here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...king-panic-thread.23227/page-142#post-1008958

Just look up the Permanent Portfolio. You split your assets between stocks, long duration Government bonds, cash and gold 25% each and rebalance as appropriate to keep them around that level. You sell stuff that's going up to buy stuff that's going down, harvesting volatility of uncorrelated assets along the way.

Within the allocation for stocks, bonds and cash "envelopes" I give myself the freedom to employ various quantitative or fundamental systems to manage my exposure to different factors, systems and currencies. I used to do this a lot more actively but switched all my exposure to Australia at the start of 2019 because I was low on free time, so it was all VAS, GSBE47, AUD. Probably a mistake to have exited my various USD exposures then, if I was still sitting on TLT it would've crushed my GSBE47 exposure, but you can't win them all!

The put buying is not part of the portfolio, it was just a lucky punt I took because I couldn't believe the way the markets kept going up while the Chinese were shutting their economy down.


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## InsvestoBoy (25 March 2020)

Bought some GSBE47 today out of cash plus fresh payday cash to bring my cash overweight/bond underweight more in line.

None of my allocations are at exactly 25%, but in this environment what can you expect.


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## mikejosef (25 March 2020)

From Motely Fool

There are 14 stocks on Macquarie best buy list. This includes gaming machine maker *Aristocrat Leisure Limited* (ASX: ALL), global packaging group *AMCOR PLC*/IDR UNRESTR (ASX: AMC), hearing implant developer *Cochlear Limited* (ASX: COH) and iron ore miner *Fortescue Metals Group Limited* (ASX: FMG).

Others on the list are industrial property company *Goodman Group* (ASX: GMG), online property classifieds *REA Group Limited* (ASX: REA), toll road operator *Transurban Group* (ASX: TCL) and *Harvey Norman Holdings Limited* (ASX: HVN).

Rounding up the group are gold miner *Northern Star Resources Ltd* (ASX: NST), donor management system company *Pushpay Holdings Ltd* (ASX: PPH), private health insurer *Medibank Private Ltd* (ASX: MPL), waste company *Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd* (ASX: CWY), insurance broker *Steadfast Group Ltd* (ASX: SDF) and IT services group *Technology One Limited* (ASX: TNE).




*Don’t try picking the bottom*
“This note is not about calling the bottom. It’s about highlighting a group of quality stocks that investors could start to buy now, acknowledging that even the best investors rarely invest all their money at the bottom,” said Macquarie.

“Investors can also change their portfolio to allocate more to one or more of the stocks we highlight.”


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## InsvestoBoy (27 March 2020)

It's Fri but I bought some IWLD in the super today, somehow super is a lot more balanced than my personal accounts.


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## InsvestoBoy (3 April 2020)

I bought some 10% OTM June puts on STW at around XJO 5180 to clip the left tail on my equity exposure.

Certainly cost me a lot more than it did last time I bought puts with the ASX VIX at 43...


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## InsvestoBoy (14 April 2020)

Sold a bit of VAS up here and bought some GSBE47...


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## InsvestoBoy (22 April 2020)

Bought a bit of VAS today, it's payday!


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## sptrawler (22 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Bought a bit of VAS today, it's payday!



Do you think the index will rise from here? there are some who think we are on the cusp of another leg down.
I'm seriously thinking of some VAS, but unsure when to pull the trigger, tending to wait for the next movement. But agree with your sentiment, good long term buying IMO.


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## InsvestoBoy (22 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Do you think the index will rise from here?




Ha ha no idea!

My assets are split equally between cash, gold, stocks, bonds and I try and buy whatever is underweight.

I was approx 1.91% underweight stocks, now I'm approx 1.26% underweight stocks.



> there are some who think we are on the cusp of another leg down.




I own some June puts on STW at a $42 strike just in case, cost me a pretty penny because I bought them at around ~5180 on the XJO in early April while ASX VIX was quite high. Who knows, what'll happen, I don't. But it'll clip the left tail of my return distribution if something bad happens.



> I'm seriously thinking of some VAS, but unsure when to pull the trigger, tending to wait for the next movement. But agree with your sentiment, good long term buying IMO.




No process = unsure.

Develop a process.


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## Bill M (22 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I'm seriously thinking of some VAS, but unsure when to pull the trigger, tending to wait for the next movement. But agree with your sentiment, good long term buying IMO.



I did a small play on my wife's super account. When the index was under 5,000 I bought some more ASX shares units. Subsequently it ran to 5,500 points where I liquidated the whole lot into 80% cash and 20% bonds. So still showing a small loss from the all time highs but nowhere near as bad it was looking when the markets hit 4500 points.

So from here we are waiting for a re-entry point. Personally I think the market is going to go down dramatically. So our approach is to drip feed back in, in 3 stages on the way down. If we get one stage in all good and well. If we can get a second and third in even better. If it goes up from here (highly improbable IMHO) then bad luck we miss out on a few profits. The ultimate would be picking up stocks at the sub 4,000 mark for the long term. Not exactly buying on a Monday though but more so buying when the opportunity arises, cheers.


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## flightcrank (23 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Bought a bit of VAS today, it's payday!



why not a200 ?


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## InsvestoBoy (23 April 2020)

flightcrank said:


> why not a200 ?




VAS tracks the ASX300. More constituents = less concentration at the top end.


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## qldfrog (23 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> VAS tracks the ASX300. More constituents = less concentration at the top end.



I usually like that but would not the current struggle affects smaller companies more than big ones?


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## InsvestoBoy (23 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I usually like that but would not the current struggle affects smaller companies more than big ones?




I like a bit of struggle, more vol = more rebal opportunities.


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## Sharkman (23 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> VAS tracks the ASX300. More constituents = less concentration at the top end.




is it worth the extra MER though?

out of curiosity i quickly grabbed the weightings off asx300list.com, by capitalisation it looks like nos 201-300 only account for 2.3% of the index.

definitely up to a certain point more constituents is good, but sooner or later the effects start diminishing.

i picked IVV over VTS for this reason, i felt that lower MER + the convenience of being Aust domiciled of IVV outweighed the 3000 odd constituents of VTS vs the 500 of IVV, the weighting of nos 501-3000 was similarly miniscule.


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## InsvestoBoy (23 April 2020)

Sharkman said:


> is it worth the extra MER though?




For me I want those extra names in there, for you I dunno.



> i picked IVV over VTS for this reason, i felt that lower MER + the convenience of being Aust domiciled of IVV outweighed the 3000 odd constituents of VTS vs the 500 of IVV, the weighting of nos 501-3000 was similarly miniscule.




That's a completely different thing. VTS was created as a vehicle that was as passive as possible, to remove turnover for tax efficiency.


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## mikejosef (24 April 2020)

VAS has to be one of the most poor performing ETFS on the ASX, and i cant see its prospects improving. Happy to be proven wrong, but its trash compared to other ETF's out there


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## Movendi (24 April 2020)

What do you consider to be the better alternatives mikejosef?


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## Sharkman (24 April 2020)

mikejosef said:


> VAS has to be one of the most poor performing ETFS on the ASX, and i cant see its prospects improving. Happy to be proven wrong, but its trash compared to other ETF's out there




it's necessary to make the distinction between the ETF performing poorly and the *underlying index* performing poorly.

the point of the ETF is to accurately track the index that it's benchmarked to. if the index does poorly, but the ETF can demonstrate low MER, low tracking error and high liquidity, then the ETF has done its job. and in my view VAS ticks all 3 boxes (fees, tracking, liquidity).

but if you're saying that the ASX 300 - which VAS is benchmarked to - has performed poorly, then you'll get no argument from me. i've been quite pessimistic on the ASX (vs the indices of other developed nations) for many years now for macroeconomic reasons, chiefly our over reliance on primary sector industries, which is a big part of the reason why i decided to invest in international index ETFs, but not VAS or any other ASX based ones.


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## flightcrank (24 April 2020)

Sharkman said:


> i picked IVV over VTS for this reason,




why IVV over IHVV, the AUD is low compared to the US. if it rises wont you lose out ?


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## Sharkman (25 April 2020)

flightcrank said:


> why IVV over IHVV, the AUD is low compared to the US. if it rises wont you lose out ?




that would depend on your view of the currency market. is the AUD _significantly _undervalued at the moment? i don't think so. your view might vary. i just think that as the years have ticked by, our economy is becoming more and more of a one trick pony (mining), and when that started slowing down combined with a general risk off sentiment, the AUD/USD movement over the last few years is what happens.

most likely global sentiment is going to be risk off for quite some time, given the current crisis. i don't see any clear catalysts on the immediate horizon that would drive a risk on currency like the AUD higher at this point. would a vaccine be such a catalyst? probably. but who knows when that's going to happen, and even when it does, how long will it take for global activity to ramp up again and sentiment to shift to risk on?

that being said, i do think it is somewhere between fairly valued and _slightly_ undervalued at these levels, i did mention earlier in this thread that if it starts getting closer to 0.5000, i'd probably use IHVV for further dollar cost averaging purchases, and may even switch out some current IVV units for the equivalent value of IHVV units. but i'll cross that bridge when i get to it.


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## IrishDigger (25 April 2020)

Hold a fair swag of FGX, on Monday will keep a watch on FGG but a bit nervous about going global.


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## mikejosef (26 April 2020)

Movendi said:


> What do you consider to be the better alternatives mikejosef?



Any that has better performance and strength - comparing VGS, NDQ, and even others like ASIA, all feared much better during the drop, and have more significant percentage gains.

Im not against having a small portion of VAS or the like, but im wary of a broad OZ index going forward and would rather pick and choose my companies.


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## mikejosef (26 April 2020)

IrishDigger said:


> Hold a fair swag of FGX, on Monday will keep a watch on FGG but a bit nervous about going global.



 what do you like about these? they seem like a good way to loose money to me


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## kahuna1 (26 April 2020)

Toilet paper I will be buying on Monday .... 

USA record number of infections and its opening back up. Brilliant. 

Possibly will also buy some bleach as Trump has advised taking it to cure the virus ...  possibly some strong light as well ... 50,000 W globe and see if that works.

Its going to be a long road with such brilliant minds leading Australia and PM Morrison.


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## IrishDigger (26 April 2020)

IrishDigger said:


> Hold a fair swag of FGX, on Monday will keep a watch on FGG but a bit nervous about going global.






mikejosef said:


> what do you like about these? they seem like a good way to loose money to me




Why do you think FGG/FGX are a good way to lose money?


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## flightcrank (26 April 2020)

mikejosef said:


> VAS has to be one of the most poor performing ETFS on the ASX, and i cant see its prospects improving. Happy to be proven wrong, but its trash compared to other ETF's out there




Looks good to me, 2019 was awesome. Its heavy in banks so got hit by the royal commission in 2018 i assume. No idea what happened in 2015 tho. Ill be buying VAS soon.

2019
dividend 5.13%
Total return by NAV 23.62%

2018
dividend 4.35%
Total return by NAV -3.18%

2017
dividend 3.97%
Total return by NAV 11.84%

2016
dividend  4.73%
Total return by NAV 11.60%

2015
 dividend 4.60%
Total return by NAV 2.65%


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## InsvestoBoy (28 April 2020)

Sold a few ounces of gold today, bought some EURN on the NYSE last night, keep some cash in USD.


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## frugal.rock (8 January 2023)

EVG Evion Group
Nothing like putting a stock into the monthly comp to push it down to where I want to buy. 😬
Reversing the truck up now.
Chart has the right ticker, but is still labelling it Blackearth. Go figure.
A Madagascar based graphite play.


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## divs4ever (8 January 2023)

frugal.rock said:


> EVG Evion Group
> Nothing like putting a stock into the monthly comp to push it down to where I want to buy. 😬
> Reversing the truck up now.
> Chart has the right ticker, but is still labelling it Blackearth. Go figure.
> ...



OUI ??

 that's my strategy  ,  maybe  i should have copyrighted it ( and generated some royalties  , sigh )

anyway  MTO is the only on  on my watch-list , reasonably close to my buy-order prices 

 not terribly close but possible this month  is EDV


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## divs4ever (8 January 2023)

BTW , my truck is at home on  blocks   only small nibbles and dabbles for me SO FAR ( in fact i have bought nothing this year , yet )


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## peter2 (8 January 2023)

The stocks in most demand are making new highs, but if you want to buy unloved stocks going down be prepared to be disappointed.


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## divs4ever (8 January 2023)

peter2 said:


> The stocks in most demand are making new highs, but if you want to buy unloved stocks going down be prepared to be disappointed.



i have been so far ( this year ) , but have a history of being persistence and patience


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## rcw1 (8 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> BTW , my truck is at home on  blocks   only small nibbles and dabbles for me SO FAR ( in fact i have bought nothing this year , yet )



Good evening divs4ever,
The year is but a pup... plenty of time to snag something...
Like a railway line out bush, not many stops no more, but rcw1 is sure that the divs4ever will get on the train at the right stop.

Mondays, always a great day to trade, sets the path and the rosy scene for the week... 
Cannot wait for the challenges that will be presented.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## divs4ever (8 January 2023)

rcw1 said:


> Good evening divs4ever,
> The year is but a pup... plenty of time to snag something...
> Like a railway line out bush, not many stops no more, but rcw1 is sure that the divs4ever will get on the train at the right stop.
> 
> ...




 am normally fairly busy  ( buying small toeholds ) in the after Christmas period 

 don't forget to watch the Asian markets ( and their effect on commodities ) as the Asian New Year approaches


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## peter2 (8 January 2023)

I might seem like a broken record with my bullishness in copper. POC look likely to get above US$4/oz soon and when it does I don't think it'll go under it for years (if ever). So, I'm buying some ASX copper stocks. Sadly *BHP* has bought *OZL, *our premier copper producer (for a song).  I already own *29M* but not *SFR* as I was concerned about their EU production costs skyrocketing due to the Ukraine conflict (wrongly as it turns out). I'm only interested in copper producers not copper resources that won't produce any copper for years. Three that I've been looking at *AIS, AR1, A1M*.

Even "blind Freddy" noticed the bullish bars on just about all the ASX lithium stocks on Friday. I'll be buying a few, anticipating short term gains. I'm not going to pay gap up prices. *PLS, CXO, AGY* in my spotlight.

Noticed that REE and U308 also caught a bid in the US on Friday. Already have *PDN* and *HAS* (missed out on *ARU*). I'll be watching *DYL, BOE.*

Lastly, nickel is sneaking higher. Bought *MCR* Friday, holding *IGO*, watching *NIC.*

Buying more positions when I'm anticipating a recession dip in the market in a few months will make things interesting. Well, we're living in interesting times.

I haven't gone through my spec scans yet. When I do, I'll keep them to myself.


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## divs4ever (8 January 2023)

peter2 said:


> I might seem like a broken record with my bullishness in copper. POC look likely to get above US$4/oz soon and when it does I don't think it'll go under it for years (if ever). So, I'm buying some ASX copper stocks. Sadly *BHP* has bought *OZL, *our premier copper producer (for a song).  I already own *29M* but not *SFR* as I was concerned about their EU production costs skyrocketing due to the Ukraine conflict (wrongly as it turns out). I'm only interested in copper producers not copper resources that won't produce any copper for years. Three that I've been looking at *AIS, AR1, A1M*.
> 
> Even "blind Freddy" noticed the bullish bars on just about all the ASX lithium stocks on Friday. I'll be buying a few, anticipating short term gains. I'm not going to pay gap up prices. *PLS, CXO, AGY* in my spotlight.
> 
> ...



i hold OZL ( free-carried' ) and BHP ( at reduced cash risk ) and also  hold MCR ( 'free-carried' )

 my major  hope in the ( junior ) copper space is AIS  but since SOL grabbed a stake  i expect that to be more mid-term/long term  to become a profitable producer 

 in exited IGO after the sold their Tropicana stake 

 good luck


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## divs4ever (8 January 2023)

one weirdo  play in this space  is SXE which is getting work from miners  trying to cut their power costs on site   ( i have held SXE since February 2017 )

 would prefer more sub 50 cents , but others may not be so demanding


SXESTH CRS ELECT ENGNR ORDINARY
Change





Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date30/06/2022Final4.000AUD100.0027/09/202228/09/202212/10/202231/12/2021Interim1.000AUD100.0029/03/202230/03/202213/04/202230/06/2021Final4.000AUD100.0026/10/202127/10/202109/11/202130/06/2020Final3.000AUD100.0007/10/202008/10/202022/10/202030/06/2019Final3.000AUD100.0025/09/201926/09/201910/10/201930/06/2018Final3.000AUD100.0011/09/201812/09/201811/10/2018


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## Telamelo (8 January 2023)

peter2 said:


> I might seem like a broken record with my bullishness in copper. POC look likely to get above US$4/oz soon and when it does I don't think it'll go under it for years (if ever). So, I'm buying some ASX copper stocks. Sadly *BHP* has bought *OZL, *our premier copper producer (for a song).  I already own *29M* but not *SFR* as I was concerned about their EU production costs skyrocketing due to the Ukraine conflict (wrongly as it turns out). I'm only interested in copper producers not copper resources that won't produce any copper for years. Three that I've been looking at *AIS, AR1, A1M*.
> 
> Even "blind Freddy" noticed the bullish bars on just about all the ASX lithium stocks on Friday. I'll be buying a few, anticipating short term gains. I'm not going to pay gap up prices. *PLS, CXO, AGY* in my spotlight.
> 
> ...



Love your work/insight/analysis @peter2 thanks as much appreciated 👍🙂 a few of those you mentioned also on my watchlist for tomorrow - Good Luck!


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