# DJIA next day forecast



## jmbonni (3 March 2020)

Hello everybody.
Here you will find the forecasts review for the next trading day of the Dow Jones.


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## jmbonni (4 March 2020)

March 3, should down.


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## jmbonni (4 March 2020)

March 4, should down.


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## tech/a (4 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> March 4, should down.
> View attachment 100962




Why?
Is this a guess or analysis?
What is the analysis.
How far down and why?
Or how far up and why?

In a situation like we have a call for down days isn't rocket science.
When they find a vaccine a call for Up days wont be either?
Sorry I dont get the point of a simple line chart and a comment of Should be down.
Its a no brainer call.


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## jmbonni (4 March 2020)

*CAUTION!*
After a huge computer calculation an opposite trend emerged.
This is a very bad time actually for stocks. I suggest to wait.
Trend _SHOULD_ up...


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## jmbonni (4 March 2020)

>>tech/a
The trends are calculated from few and simple data I get just after the us stock market closes, using a genetic deep learning soft (perso).
It gives generally good results but may need a lot of time to compute.
What about the trends? I think that what is underlying the value of the DJ (or other indexes) is generally stronger of  what happens in the day. But what happens today may enter in the playgame later.
For example, the huge down of this past week may be linked to a too much evaluated stocks; and not so much to coronavirus. Some goods analitycs expected a down at the beginning of 2020, up to 20%, before they back buy stocks (tech) for a secure 5% profit this year.
Good luck


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## Skate (5 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> >>tech/a
> The trends are calculated from few and simple data I get just after the us stock market closes, using a genetic deep learning soft (perso).
> It gives generally good results but may need a lot of time to compute. What about the trends? I think that what is underlying the value of the DJ (or other indexes) is generally stronger of  what happens in the day. But what happens today may enter in the playgame later.For example, the huge down of this past week may be linked to a too much evaluated stocks; and not so much to coronavirus. Some goods analitycs expected a down at the beginning of 2020, up to 20%, before they back buy stocks (tech) for a secure 5% profit this year. Good luck




@jmbonni I'm genuinely interest in hearing more about how you go about evaluating the markets moving forward. I've posted a few screen captures & have a few questions. It would be helpful to hear your take on the US futures & mid trading of the DAX & FTSE & how they tie into our markets tomorrow.

*# Time Stamp*
12:13am Thursday 5th March 2020

*US Futures before the open*







*DAX - current trading result*






*
FTSE - current trading result*






*My Questions*
1. The DAX & the FTSE are having an up day, the US futures are up, does that mean the US markets will have a great day today?
2. Will the information above be correlated in our markets tomorrow, meaning - is the ASX in for a good trading day when the markets open at 10am?
3. Is this the information you use to formulate your market methodology?

Skate.


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## jmbonni (5 March 2020)

>>Skate
I understand you question as: "if futures go up before the market opens the stocks or indices underlyed on the futures will go up also, while the market is open"
This cannot be true. Just because the future reflect the underlying price at the precise moment M.
Yesterday you had seen the DJ future going up, and finally the Dow Jone finished down. 
In calm and steamed trending period this may be usefull, but not allways.

International market are not so much linked by themself, at least for the next day.
Yesterday CAC40 gained but DJ goes down later.

The market should be understand as an inner tube inside a wheel. The market is the air inside the inner tube, somewhat under pressure. It has few exchange with the outside.
Now imagine the time as the wheel is turning. When the wheel meet an obstacle, the  inner tube is compresed and this produces a shock wave. This shock wave runs forward and backward. As the inner tube is a finite wound up world, the shock wave will have irremediably an effect (big or small)... later.

Thanks for you comments


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## Skate (5 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> >>Skate
> I understand you question as: "if futures go up before the market opens the stocks or indices underlyed on the futures will go up also, while the market is open"
> This cannot be true. Just because the future reflect the underlying price at the precise moment M.
> Yesterday you had seen the DJ future going up, and finally the Dow Jone finished down.
> ...




@jmbonni thank you for your reply & explanation.

*Moreover*
I've read many articles where top traders will use a non-related metrics as an additional conditional entry criteria & your post was leading me to that conclusion, thus the interest.

*Its been test & correlated*
I remember reading an article many years ago where Nick Radge backtested the correlation between the US close on Friday to the ASX open on Monday. After a 10 year test period more than 50% of the time the correlation failed. This is what I also gleaned form your post.

*Just for the record*
I'm doing a follow-up post "how the over night trading panned out". Our natural assumption is to correlate these trading results into our mindset "thinking", "hoping", "praying" that the ASX will follow their lead today.



































*Today's - ASX SPI 200*





Skate.


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## jmbonni (5 March 2020)

March 5: DJIA should down (from an early stage computed result)


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## Skate (5 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> March 5: DJIA should down (from an early stage computed result)
> View attachment 100988





jmbonni said:


> The trends are calculated from few and simple data I get just after the us stock market closes, using a genetic deep learning soft (perso).




*Interesting...*
@jmbonni I've had a look at your website, may I ask what is the inputs/formula that is used in your deep learning software to arrive at the green line (future prediction) going forward?.

*Interpretation of the green extension line*
In your last post - the March 5th chart *DJIA should *(sic: have been a) *down* (sic: day) but the chart didn't pan out that way OR am I misreading the value of the (green extension line) on the chart?

*Clarification is needed *
Is the green line on the March 5th chart indicating (predicting) the future market direction?

Skate.


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## jmbonni (5 March 2020)

@Skate
1/ *inputs *Say I just use DJIA OHLCV end of day time serie data.
2/ *formula* There is no formula. The deep learning process is like an adaptative logic running inside a neural network. The process is like an avanced recursive learning from past to future.
Using formula is like constructing a model (ie forecasting the weather). You start from known data points and you propagate the scheme to other points thanks to mathématica formulas. This is NOT what I use and I think a Model is not the way to do because each day has its new rules. A mathematic Model cannot really adapt itself.
3/ *the green line* is the forecast, right. Each dot (the 3) represents the prediction of the close value, calculated from data one day before. so the last dot represents the next trading day close value forecast calculated from the last real known data.
4/ *interpretation* The green line must be interpreted as a day trend, not the daily range/magnitude which is rarely good. So the March 5th chart shows that the learning processed computed an up trend (green line from dot 1 to 2)  for March 4th which is confirmed by the blue line (real data), and shows a down trend (green line from dot 2 to 3 and last)  for the next trading day (March 5th).
But you have to be aware
a/ that the forecast trend goes is over the previous real value for an up trend,
b/ that the forecast trend goes is lower that the previous real value for an down trend.
Otherwise an interpretation is not possble.

Anyway you have to consider this system in conjonction with other kind of information

(Sorry for my english writting, my mother tongue is the french)


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## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> @Skate
> 1/ *inputs *Say I just use DJIA OHLCV end of day time serie data.
> 2/ *formula* There is no formula. The deep learning process is like an adaptative logic running inside a neural network. The process is like an avanced recursive learning from past to future.
> Using formula is like constructing a model (ie forecasting the weather). You start from known data points and you propagate the scheme to other points thanks to mathématica formulas. This is NOT what I use and I think a Model is not the way to do because each day has its new rules. A mathematic Model cannot really adapt itself.
> ...



Bienvenu et intéressé par ce réseau 

I am interested as well....


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## Skate (5 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> @Skate
> 1/ *inputs *Say I just use DJIA OHLCV end of day time serie data.
> 2/ *formula* There is no formula. The deep learning process is like an adaptative logic running inside a neural network. The process is like an avanced recursive learning from past to future.
> Using formula is like constructing a model (ie forecasting the weather). You start from known data points and you propagate the scheme to other points thanks to mathématica formulas. This is NOT what I use and I think a Model is not the way to do because each day has its new rules. A mathematic Model cannot really adapt itself.
> ...




Thanks mate..

This could turn into a very educational thread, I would love to hear more on your findings & the application of your findings in real terms.

Tell me more, I’m all ears.

Skate.


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2020)

This could make my crystal ball redundant


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## tech/a (5 March 2020)

Smoke and Mirrors 

Seems prevalent in the financial fraternity.


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## jmbonni (6 March 2020)

No lose time to take advantage of the forecast because meanwhile the gap can narrow rapidly. You can use the Telegram channel "TheMoreTime" which displays an alert as soos as a new forecast chart has been released.


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## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

Tobe honest in the short term it is
4pc up, then 4pc down, today is 4pc down and i would bet it will be up by tomorrow morning
Suckers buy the dip, big offload from big money, then when this atops and crash again Feds pumps or media move into a : vaccine found....
Soon overpositive news
One of the trouble of neural
 networks is that learning is done on the expectations than future behaviour is an extension of the past
Great to recognise car plates or faces less for market movement where it acts when you think about it as a master Chartist.
nothing wrong with that as this is what i attempt to do in my system, but do not expect a miraculous always right answer
Just another good tool


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## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

But let's not be unfair, it is a great subject as i often toyed with the idea of using neural networks in a system, after all this is the area i majored in, 30y ago and the tools have greatly improved since


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## jmbonni (6 March 2020)

March 6th: Dow Jones should go down


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## jmbonni (6 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Tobe honest in the short term it is
> 4pc up, then 4pc down, today is 4pc down and i would bet it will be up by tomorrow morning
> Suckers buy the dip, big offload from big money, then when this atops and crash again Feds pumps or media move into a : vaccine found....
> Soon overpositive news
> ...




You are totaly right!
Don't expect it gives always the right answer. Only expect it gives a better result than the human logic does.

And you are right with the trouble of neural networks deep learning considering the future as an extension of the past. But this is the base of the physic (except in certain manner in quantum mechanics where probably the time /space is different from the macro world). The limit of the learning is it possibility to integrate all the paramaters (ie the big one earthquake in SF). But in reallity all of those disaster, or good news (iie vaccin) come gradually and the market adapt itsef gradually also.


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## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> You are totaly right!
> Don't expect it gives always the right answer. Only expect it gives a better result than the human logic does.
> 
> And you are right with the trouble of neural networks deep learning considering the future as an extension of the past. But this is the base of the physic (except in certain manner in quantum mechanics where probably the time /space is different from the macro world). The limit of the learning is it possibility to integrate all the paramaters (ie the big one earthquake in SF). But in reallity all of those disaster, or good news (iie vaccin) come gradually and the market adapt itsef gradually also.



not sure I agree with the gradual side..9/11, etc: but you are right, the virus scare came out of nowhere but it took absolutely ages before seeing some reactions
some are still saying today: it is just a flu....imagine if the economic effect was the same every year because of the flu....
Good for some who covered their asses well before it became headlines be it having masks and supplies to getting out of markets  into bonds and gold
;-)
Sadly I was wrong as last night in the US was another bloodshed..I was forecasting a rebound...
Maybe all the wise money is now exited (I man edge funds and the master of the universe types) and we are left with private investors, super funds and LICs to share the losses


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## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

Please keep sharing your outcome;
I assume your system is self learning and so "automatically" weighting the most recent period higher?
Have you thought about the fact many big money companiesy may use similar toosl and so that their neural network predictions become self fulfilling?
big money predicts tomorrow is a bloodbath, put a sell all at the open 
et voila: the market falls...big money prediction was right
rinse and repeat


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## jmbonni (7 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Please keep sharing your outcome;
> I assume your system is self learning and so "automatically" weighting the most recent period higher?
> Have you thought about the fact many big money companiesy may use similar toosl and so that their neural network predictions become self fulfilling?
> big money predicts tomorrow is a bloodbath, put a sell all at the open
> ...



Studies had shown that the use of automatic decision trading (which is not the same as deep learning) let the market with fewer risk of brutal down or high. I agree with that. So if everyone used a similar tool the market probably will be less chaotic. Fund managers have access to this kind of tools but dont know how to tune them. Finnaly they prefere using ultra fast reaction algos to place or quite orders.

I think the actual financial trading market is much more a Ponzi sheme which gives great rewards because a lot of persons want great rewards and are ok to buy more expensive to get great rewards... and so on until the big crackdown. 

To make money, it is better to invest (buy) for a long period (years) with the hope a brutal disaster does not happen...


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## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> Studies had shown that the use of automatic decision trading (which is not the same as deep learning) let the market with fewer risk of brutal down or high. I agree with that. So if everyone used a similar tool the market probably will be less chaotic. Fund managers have access to this kind of tools but dont know how to tune them. Finnaly they prefere using ultra fast reaction algos to place or quite orders.
> 
> I think the actual financial trading market is much more a Ponzi sheme which gives great rewards because a lot of persons want great rewards and are ok to buy more expensive to get great rewards... and so on until the big crackdown.
> 
> To make money, it is better to invest (buy) for a long period (years) with the hope a brutal disaster does not happen...



Always educate yourself to the Japanese market before this long term view.
My opinion is that market mix ponzi scheme and growth addiction due to population increases.
When this stops in the west trouble begins
But you can make money on systematic approaches


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## bluekelah (7 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> not sure I agree with the gradual side..9/11, etc: but you are right, the virus scare came out of nowhere but it took absolutely ages before seeing some reactions
> some are still saying today: it is just a flu....imagine if the economic effect was the same every year because of the flu....
> Good for some who covered their asses well before it became headlines be it having masks and supplies to getting out of markets  into bonds and gold
> ;-)
> ...




Black swan event is happening mate. Started with poor PMI numbers from Japan. And I knew the virus
would spiral out of control into a pandemic right from day one due to the transmission characteristics and lowish but significant fatality rate. That's why i was asking around on how to get physical gold despite being largely a stocks person lol...

There are some drugs used for other similar viruses being trialled at the moment, but those will take a few more months to show results if any. And vaccine the quickest be a years time or so.

Very high chance china's debt bubble has started deflating and nothing much we can do about it.

Markets should bottom out in about a months time though when virus is running rampant and killing thousands in USA.

China will become Japan 2.0 after this is over. We are coming to the end of another credit supercycle. Some central banks were already buying gold heavily last year so many are ready to let the market crash and reset whilst they sit back and watch the carnage.

I believe more carnage next week for stocks as more earnings are missed and more flights cancelled etc.. Deaths outside china are stacking up as well due to largely top heavy elderly demographics of many OECD nations.

All the credit markets have been too high for too long, I forsee another GFC coming!! Warren buffet meanwhile rubbing his hands in glee whilst he waits for the bottom with his billions in cash...


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## jmbonni (8 March 2020)

March 9th Dow Jones forecast: should down


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## Skate (8 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> March 9th Dow Jones forecast: should down
> View attachment 101119




@jmbonni thanks for the update..






*Request*
1. Would you please make a comment about your latest chart - as the more you tell us the more we will learn
2. What is the chart indicating for you, meaning how does this chart benefit readers?
3. You interpretation of your latest chart will give readers an insight into the long term predictive value of your thread.
4. Why has the middle green dot moved from its previous position of 5th March?

Skate.


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## jmbonni (9 March 2020)

Skate said:


> @jmbonni thanks for the update..
> 
> View attachment 101121
> 
> ...



1->4/ Each computed forecast is unique, even with the same data. This is due to the specific genetic like neural network evolution. If you make 2 calculations you will obtain two distinct NNs, and two forecasts, but generally showing a same trend. 
More, each day has a different history. 
More, each day may have a specific set of "rules". 
This is why you need to train a new NN each new day. What is important is obtaining a right trend for the last known day (ie 5th to 6th March)
Dont forget, it is not a Model, just an atempt to find weak signals with a plastic logic.


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## tech/a (9 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> March 9th Dow Jones forecast: should down
> View attachment 101119




so this chart shows a 2000 pt range 
Doubt you’ll get it wrong with that.

can’t see the point.


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## Skate (9 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> 1->4/ Each computed forecast is unique, even with the same data. This is due to the specific genetic like neural network evolution. If you make 2 calculations you will obtain two distinct NNs, and two forecasts, but generally showing a same trend.
> More, each day has a different history.
> More, each day may have a specific set of "rules".
> This is why you need to train a new NN each new day. What is important is obtaining a right trend for the last known day (ie 5th to 6th March)
> Dont forget, it is not a Model, just an atempt to find weak signals with a plastic logic.




@jmbonni thanks for your further clarification that leads me to asking another question & making a few statement so you understand the position where I'm coming from. @qldfrog has knowledge & experience in this area where I have none. Your chart are intriguing & the topic of Neutral networks, Machine Learning & the results of your research may have applications of being a frontrunner, predicting market movements.

*Question*
Your website is relatively new & I was wondering if you have extensive experience/education in this field "or" is a new side hobby?

*Trading applications*
Pattern, chart patterns in particular & how they apply when it comes to trading plays a large part in how I trade. As a mechanical system trader I'm constantly looking for repeatable chart patterns that can be coded & backtested confirming the validity, profitability & if a pattern can be turned into a trading strategy. 

*Chart Patterns*
Patterns are everywhere. Some Patterns are deadly leading us into making a poor decision. Chart patterns are easy to spot when they are in the middle of the chart but as traders we can only trade at the hard right edge. Chart patterns tell you a story of what has happened in the past & not what will happen tomorrow, that's where your research maybe of some assistance moving forward.

*Stocks are just like people*
Understanding traders past behaviour, may allow you to predict their future behaviour. Stocks are just like people, because that is who makes them look the way they do. The buying and selling creates an emotional ebb and flow pattern & just like people, stocks can be unpredictable, but certain emotions and behaviours do occur regularly. Humans have a unique ability to spot patterns that has been tuned by evolution & we superbly adapted to understand the visual world. Pattern recognition is for our survival as a species & its the very reason a cloud formation looks like a bunny or elvis, sometimes our mind deceives us presenting pattern when in fact there isn't any. We unconsciously take for granted how good we are we at making sense of what our eyes show us & sometimes we don't usually appreciate how tough sometimes a new patterns without explanation is difficult for our visual system to solve.

*New patterns without explanation is difficult for our visual system to solve*
When you post your next predictive chart may I request that an explanations accompanies the chart as I believe it will carry a higher educational value.

Skate.


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## jmbonni (9 March 2020)

*CAUTION! CAUION!
The markets are going down! More than 20% of draw down from the higher past month may lead to a financial and economic cascading crash! In this case you should protect you personal money from banks and brokers lack of liquidity...*


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## jmbonni (9 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> so this chart shows a 2000 pt range
> Doubt you’ll get it wrong with that.
> 
> can’t see the point.



The computed range is important (read my previous posts). It means just the trend forecast, up or down. No more.


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## jmbonni (9 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> The computed range is important (read my previous posts). It means just the trend forecast, up or down. No more.



Please read: The computed range is *NOT* important...


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## greggles (9 March 2020)

Looking like a big down day tonight on the US markets.


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## jmbonni (9 March 2020)

*Nikkei 225* forecast for March 10th: DOWN


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## jmbonni (9 March 2020)

Skate said:


> @jmbonni thanks for your further clarification that leads me to asking another question & making a few statement so you understand the position where I'm coming from. @qldfrog has knowledge & experience in this area where I have none. Your chart are intriguing & the topic of Neutral networks, Machine Learning & the results of your research may have applications of being a frontrunner, predicting market movements.
> 
> *Question*
> Your website is relatively new & I was wondering if you have extensive experience/education in this field "or" is a new side hobby?
> ...



Forget patters and mechanics. Better macro economy for swing trading. 
Economic Nobel prizes and other economists are helpless, impotent, for short/long term forecasts because they focus on mechanical interaction.
At this time the only way to have a healthy economic system is to avoid financial speculations: no short selling, no derivative products, avoiding selling stocks before one year hold...
What can do a central banks can do? printing more money, change the rate of the loan, helicoptery money, doing studies. It is not a lot, everyone can apply to manage them.


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## jmbonni (10 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> so this chart shows a 2000 pt range
> Doubt you’ll get it wrong with that.
> 
> can’t see the point.



@tech/a
Your last comment has something good. It shows us how much human beings are bad when it comes to deal with fuzzy logic domain. Subsediary it shows shows the pretentiousness of human beings, particulary when they don't admit their limits.
Don't criticize without proposing better forecasts or without justifying your criticism.
Sadly the Down Jones fallen in the same range as it was forecasted,  more than 2000 points!


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## jmbonni (10 March 2020)

March 10th Down Jones forecast: should down


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## tech/a (10 March 2020)

I think there is a very good chance that the DJIA will have an up day 
Which the neural network will learn from.

*10/3/2020 Should be UP*!


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## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> I think there is a very good chance that the DJIA will have an up day
> Which the neural network will learn from.
> 
> *10/3/2020 Should be UP*!



we will see tomorrow morning : tech/a magic ball vs the algorithm.


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## tech/a (10 March 2020)

Dax up 50
Asia up all round 
Not hard


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## jmbonni (10 March 2020)

Good morning/afternoon/evening everybody from around the world.

I thank you for these some days in this forum exchanging with you.
My purpose on this forum was to show that another way to think may have interest, something like a proof of concept, nothing else. 
I hope it will be interesting for you as it was for me. 
This took me a lot of time, and some stress.
May be I can get off 2 teachings (tha I really knew them a long time ago), for me at least. 
1st one: trading is sad. 
2nd one if you want to invest buy stocks, put them in the drawer, and go fishing, painting...

The forecasts continue only on my website.
Good luck folks.


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## Skate (10 March 2020)

jmbonni said:


> 2nd one if you want to invest buy stocks, *put them in the drawer, and go fishing, painting*...




@jmbonni, thank you for a stimulating thread, I’ve enjoyed the interaction.

*We differ in our game plan. *
It’s often quoted “you can’t time the markets - it’s all about time in the markets” similar to the views you have expressed. Critics of “market timing” contend that it is nearly impossible to time the market successfully compared to staying fully invested over the same period.

*Staying fully invested*
I personally don’t subscribe to this style of trading.

*Timing the market*
Being a systems trader, trading a mechanical trend trading strategy IMHO has it’s advantages of probabilities over the “Buy & Hold” Strategy. Mechanical system traders buy & sell positions based on price fluctuations. If we can successfully predict when a position will go up we can turn that move into a profit - Well that’s the plan.

Skate.


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## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

thanks for your input good luck


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## qldfrog (11 March 2020)

@tech/a  magic ball won today


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## tech/a (11 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @tech/a  magic ball won today




Common sense won today.



jmbonni said:


> This took me a lot of time, and some stress.




Trading/Investing/Research/presenting and Chatting ---Shouldn't be stressful.



> May be I can get off 2 teachings (that I really knew them a long time ago), for me at least.
> 1st one: trading is sad.
> 2nd one if you want to invest buy stocks, put them in the drawer, and go fishing, painting...




Really strange things to say when you are developing or have developed a Data learning program.



> The forecasts continue only on my website.



If you simply publishing a forecast---why.

FYI
I come from a Similar place in that Im working with people who I pay to develop some very exciting
analysis tools.Been going on 5 years now and there is an absolute wealth of amazing information already
accumulated in Uqant. These people are very highly qualified.
It has been me that has held back release for the following reasons.

I know what they are working on and involved with outside of Uqant.
I dont want a half arsed release (Nor do they) where by they dont have time to be pro active in the
products.
The learning process while designed/tested and presented by experts in many fields is designed so that
you and me the general public can understand, Learn and Use.
There needs to be a plethora of on going information that is unique and sort after.

There is information out there so I understand --- but what Im seeing is nothing like it is/should be.


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## jmbonni (18 October 2020)

Back to Aussie Stock...
Monday 19th Oct, US Nasdaq Composite should go down near 11570


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## jmbonni (20 October 2020)

October 20th, Nasdaq Composite should go up near 11777 according to Temptation Point indicator.

Follow the forecasts on the thread temptation-point-indicator-for-nasdaq-composite forum.


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## barney (20 October 2020)

jmbonni said:


> Back to Aussie Stock... Monday 19th Oct, US Nasdaq Composite should go down near 11570




Haven't followed the thread as such ... but that was a pretty good call ahead of time


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## jmbonni (21 October 2020)

21th Oct. Nasdaq Composite should go up near 11538 according to Temptation Point indicator.
Follow the forecasts on the thread temptation-point-indicator-for-nasdaq-composite forum.


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## jmbonni (22 October 2020)




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