# GCR - Golden Cross Resources



## Sean K (15 August 2006)

Golden Cross Resources (GCR) is a gold and base metals explorer searching for large deposits in highly prospective mineral belts.

GCR's primary focus is the Copper Hill Project in central NSW strategically located near NCMs Cadia deposit. Copper Hill has an Indicated and Inferred Resource of 136 million tonnes containing 455,000tns copper and 1.4m oz gold.

Today it announced a major drill intersection 400m to the north of the current resource envelope and similar to the Cadia mineralisation. 

The management of GCR are very conident that further drilling will uncover more and higher grades within the region. This would significantly increase the resource estimate. 

Systemaic drilling is to commence in the area immediately. 

This project seems to have significant upside to me. I bought this as a trading stock a little while ago, but since their past 2 anns, I'm holding to see just how big this deposit can get. 

Seems to be heading up on the charts and broken through $0.07. The next few reports should continue to drive the sp up imo. As I said, holding. 

http://www.goldencross.com.au/Main/home.asp


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## CanOz (15 August 2006)

Where's a good stop for a small position, 4.7?


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## Sean K (15 August 2006)

Prabably depends where you come in at and your trading plan.

Do you have a 'plan'? 

When trading I try not to lose more than 10% on speccie stocks, or 5% on a blue chip. 

Or, you could be trading support and resistance lines.....

I had a stop on this at $0.052, but took it off after the recent anns. I might move it up, but I think it's got some potential and I might just let it go. I'd probably consider buying more if it drops back to those levels. 

Be aware, this is still a speculative stock. The recent drilling results could be just anomolies and there may be not a bit more gold in that there hill. However, I believe this is unlikely.


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## CanOz (15 August 2006)

Yes i do have and use a trading plan. 

I might try to pick up some GCR up if it drops a bit today.

Thanks,


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## edogg75 (15 August 2006)

From mining news.net:



Golden Cross has been stalking Australia for more than 10 years, pegging exploration tenements with undoubted potential. However, timing and commodity pricing have, until now, foiled any attempts to take a discovery into development.

The company's 105 million tonne Copper Hill deposit, grading 0.33% copper and 0.33 gram per tonne gold, has been deemed too low grade and therefore too marginal to be developed by many.

Golden Cross managing director Kim Stanton-Cook agrees the grades are low, but is confident the project setting and metallurgical factors will prove the difference between a moneymaker and a money pit.

"Copper Hill is one of those projects that people have previously failed to appreciate," Stanton-Cook told RESOURCESTOCKS while onsite at Copper Hill.

"It can be made to work despite the fact that it is a relatively low-grade deposit, and if we can produce 30,000t of copper a year and 60,000-80,000 ounces of gold each year at reasonable costs, then GCR will be a company that people can invest in."

Stanton-Cook was reluctant to speak of the economics required to make Copper Hill work before completing a scoping study, but said the cost indicators to this point gave him every confidence in the project.

Copper Hill is near the regional centre of Orange, adjacent to the Mitchell Highway, and just 45km north of Newcrest's massive 281Mt Cadia Valley gold-copper mine. 

In essence the project has access to a ready workforce, established infrastructure and a proven geological setting (Copper Hill and Cadia both occur on the Molong Volcanic Belt) – an awesome position for any potential operation.

"We can see an economic model that's rational and reasonable, that doesn't require outrageous copper and gold prices because we've got a low strip ratio, good metallurgy and good infrastructure," Stanton-Cook said.

"You couldn't make this thing work if it was sitting out 40km from Alice Springs – you wouldn't even think about it – but because of where it is it can be made to work."

The prize within the established infrastructure is a decommissioned railway "in quite good nick", which runs up to the base of Copper Hill.

"From there, it is just a simple matter of refurbishing the rail to allow us to take the product the 5km down to the trans-Australia line at Molong. That's one alternative, the other is that we may simply truck the product down to the line," Stanton-Cook said.

He said other major advantage the project had was its metallurgical qualities. Metallurgical work returned so far has been excellent, and when combined with a very low strip-ratio, it equals cost-efficient ore processing.

"We've got very encouraging results from our earlier metallurgical work and we've got more to do," Stanton-Cook said.

"We're hoping to achieve high recoveries and we're fairly confident that with that material, we will have a relatively high grade and very clean concentrate. We'd be looking to produce concentrate at 30% copper and around 60gpt gold.

"We're looking at better than 90% recoveries for both copper and gold – the initial studies showed high 90s for copper and low 90s for gold – and we will be looking at getting a mill that will be recovering better than 90% for both metals.

"It's very clean and there's no indication we'll have any contaminants, which should make it attractive to buyers."

Stanton-Cook was in the midst of site tours for potential offtake partners and other would-be suitors for the project when he spoke to RS and said "all options were on the table".

The presence of infrastructure and a solid processing outlook are vital for Copper Hill's development into a producing mine down the track. But Stanton-Cook is not counting his chickens.

Rather, he insists the focus for the time being remains on a 15,000m RC (reverse circulation) drilling program in progress, which is concentrated on proving up the resource and identifying possible extensions.

A scoping study will be completed in tandem with that drilling. Both the drilling and scoping study are expected to be tied up by the start of October, with a pre-feasibility complete by the end of the year.

"If everything is positive, then we look forward to doing a full feasibility stretching right through 2007," Stanton-Cook said.

He said the project would receive intensive drilling throughout 2007 to reach the bankable stage.

"We really need to get the drill density up to the point where we've got measured and indicated resources. At the moment, we've got 75% inferred and 25% indicated resources, and a nominal drill spacing of 100m by 50m that needs to come down to 50m by 50m and, at places, 50m by 30m to get us to the status that we would like to be."

Permitting, approvals and engineering process will be started in 2007 and the start-up date for mining is set for 2010.

The mine life is 10-15 years, however, with a number of early stage nearby exploration targets yet to be seriously tested, Golden Cross is hopeful of extending the mine's existence. The company holds 15km of contiguous tenements along the Molong Volcanic Belt within the Copper Hill project area.

"I've said from the outset that we would continue to explore Copper Hill to add value," Stanton-Cook said.

"It is our hope that we will be able to add to the existing resources as we go along but at this stage, we're unable to point to a particular target and say what it might add because all the previous work, and work we've done, has been preliminary.

"There's been soil sampling, there's been shallow RAB [rotary air blast] drilling – some of that hasn't been terribly effective – and we need to go back and do some deeper drilling in some of those areas."

The current infill program has already branched the resource out further, with hole 107 hitting mineralisation that has not been included in the optimised pit. That hole hit 196m grading 0.8gpt gold and 0.46% copper from 154m with more assays to come.

"When we're drilling this infill program, we're adding to the project, not just confirming it, and we're coming up with quite good numbers in Copper Hill terms.

"All these infill holes are adding to the resource and adding to our confidence in the project."


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Anothe good ann today with a far in from Zinifex on the Wagga project. All seems to be happening atm.

Climbed through $0.08 today and holding for now, hopfully breaking the resistance noted there. 

Looking forward to further anns regarding the extent of mineralisation at Copper Hill North.


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## edogg75 (16 August 2006)

Nice non-copperhill ann today has the SP going up. Zinifex can earn a 51% interest in the project by spending $550,000 on exploration over the next 4 years. 

The copper hill project is due for a resource update soon, and yesterdays ann indicates that the old figure (344,000t cu, 1.12moz au) may be significantly eclipsed. 

From miningnews.net:

Rock solid find for Golden Cross 

Ben Sharples
Wednesday, 16 August 2006

JUNIOR explorer Golden Cross Resources has hit "Cadia and Northparkes-style porphyries" 400m north of the main deposit and outside the optimised pit of its Copper Hill project in New South Wales.

Golden Cross said the first deep drill hole at Copper Hill North has hit a new zone of disseminated, and some massive, copper mineralisation extending for more than 460m down hole.

Managing director Kim Stanton-Cook told MiningNews.net yesterday the area looks like a new structural domain, which was recognised from detailed mapping the company has been carrying out for the past couple of months.

"We appear to have drilled into a much more potassic porphyry … which is more like the porphyries that you see at Northparkes and Cadia, and it's something that we've always felt we were missing and now we think we've got one," he said.

"It just happened to have quite a lot of copper associated with it, so effectively we've got normal Copper Hill mineralisation that is fairly low grade from 12m down to about 270m.

"For the next 200m beyond that, we've got this strongly disseminated and massive chalcopyrite magnetite and we're starting to get into some more pyrite towards the end of the hole, but there is still a lot of finely disseminated pyrite in the intersection.

"We'll keep that hole going through to about 500m, which is about the limit of the rig."

Assays are expected within three to four weeks.

"We'd love to know what it's running on and in particular we'd love to know what the gold grades are, so there is a bit of blue sky in there at the moment," he said.

"That will be our next main drilling target until we've defined it because you have to chase your best targets, and this drill hole has created an excellent target. We're debating now whether to put a scissor hole to come back from the other side to try and define in that direction or whether to go vertically down."

Golden Cross is currently conducting a scoping study at Copper Hill looking at a potential 10 million tonne per annum operation producing 25,000tpa of copper and 80,000 ounces of gold, and possibly costing somewhere in the order of $A250 million.

Copper Hill is around 40km from Newcrest Mining's Cadia operations near Orange.

END ARTICLE

IMO, GCR is going to be a big mover over the next few months. There is a bunch of publicly traded options that expire on 30 sep 06 at a exercise price of 5c, and I believe that management will be trying to release as much positive news as possible before that deadline. 

I hold GCR and GCRO


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

GCR forming a couple of nice pennants on poles which is normally a bullish formation, backed by their recent good anns on Copper Hill. Watch volume for next spike. Probably need some more good news to continue pattern. 

_Pennants are very similar to symmetrical triangles except that they generally occur over a shorter time frame and tend to be asymmetrical, although they don't have to be. They also offer more of a bias to continue in the underlying direction than triangles and can be recognised by their squat or squashed corrective nature. They are often best distinguished by the presence of a pole, a vertical move to which the pennant attaches itself.

Construction is effected by drawing a resistance line sloping down across the tops of the corrective price bars, generally starting at the recent high. The lower side of the pennant is drawn as a straight line across the bottoms of the corrective price bars.

Pennant in an up trend

There is a greater probability for price to break out of the pennant to the high side. Nevertheless a break down from the pennant would have also generated a valid signal, but a signal to sell._


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## edogg75 (22 August 2006)

keep an eye on GCR and GCRO (ex 5c, 30/09) this morning. Relatively large buying on the heads. Options at a steal. Up 6% so far.


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

Up 9%. Seems those pole and pennants were a good indicator.


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Golden Cross Resources (GCR) is a gold and base metals explorer searching for large deposits in highly prospective mineral belts.
> 
> GCR's primary focus is the Copper Hill Project in central NSW strategically located near NCMs Cadia deposit. Copper Hill has an Indicated and Inferred Resource of 136 million tonnes containing 455,000tns copper and 1.4m oz gold.
> 
> ...




This has climbed much faster than anticipated and smashed through previous resistance levels on increased volume. Must pull back sightly to consolidate, but definately being rerated after recent positive anns. 

One to watch on pull back, because further results from CH will be forthcoming in the next few weeks I'd assume.


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## edogg75 (22 August 2006)

Copper Hill scoping study is due before the end of the month Kennas.


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## Alfredbra (22 August 2006)

got into GCR and GCRO last week, today was an excellent day for both of them. in you opinions what sp do you think GCR will be at the end of the month?


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

I want some consolidation as I have this as a longer term play. So, happy where it is right now! 

Can't put a figure on it because we don't know how much gold and copper is in the Hill. Could be anywhere bewteen 1 and 2m oz Au atm.


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## Sean K (23 August 2006)

Up 11% on 4m vol early. Doubled in 3 weeks.


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## Alfredbra (23 August 2006)

very happy with this stock, 60% up from entry which i cant complain about that! i expected today to see some big sellers however the sp went up again a huge amount!


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## ahspritemk (24 August 2006)

I got out of gcr 3 weeks ago


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## Alfredbra (25 August 2006)

copper hill update annoucement released this afternoon. market reacted negatively? anyones opinions plz?


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## tasmanian (25 August 2006)

announcement came out at 4.07pm

see what happens monday.things looking good here.long term could be v good


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## Alfredbra (25 August 2006)

oh i see didnt know the specific time but only that it was sometime this afternoon


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## Sean K (27 August 2006)

Could come under pressure Mon with the ann as the last notice about hole 190 having 2-3 % chalcopyrite seems to be overestimated. 

However, overall still positive for the long run with mineralisation confirmed through the depth of the hole which pretty much confirms that the Copper Hill deposit will be extended out to 800m north of the current resource envelope, with still further potential with the drilling only just commenced. 

They recently upgraded the resource by 30% and this finding could significanty increase it again. Seems to have a lot of potential to surprise n the upside.

holding


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## Alfredbra (28 August 2006)

looks like ann. didnt attract to many buyers. down today


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## Archinos (28 August 2006)

OK- managed to run over what info I could find btw coffe breaks.
Templates for Copper Hill are of course Newcrests Cadia Hill (open cut) & Ridgeway (underground). First point is Cadia, Ridgeway & Copper Hill are in the same geological settings/rock packages (good). Cadia & Ridgeway are low grade but economically viable due to 'economies of scale' (Cadia 281Mt+ @ 0.64gt Au / 0.17% Cu for 5.9 MozAu & 476 kilton Cu; Ridgew 73Mt+ @ 1.76 gt Au / 0.62% Cu for 4.1 Moz Au & 450 kilt Cu)- they are also principally Au (important distinction with Copper Hill).
I'm a little confused with current figures being quoted for GCR but I'll run with 8-08-06 rpt showing (indicated & inferred) 136Mt @ 0.32 gt Au / 0.33% Cu for  1.4 Moz Au & 455 kilt Cu. 
Hiving off hole 190 & 'new' porphyry target domain for a minute, you can see at current Au grades CopHil is not in the same league as Cadia. It is however returning much better Cu grades. While CopHil may have infrastructure, metal chemistry etc, IMO what makes Cadia work is the amt of Au (and production cost in 2005 were ard $400 oz, but probably much higher this yr). Take this with a grain of salt, but on it's own right now I'd see this as marginal as too much is weighted towards low grades & bean counting; a play such as CDU holds much better prospects/grades even though their drilling is not as advanced (and Cobalt is on the rise too).
I don't know the mind of the market, however it seems obvious there's been a lot of anticipation (board at least...) of further discovery aka Ridgeway type deposit - hence the previous touting of hole 190. (Ridgeway: undergroung op, 500 m below surface, 3 km NW Cadia; volcanics & mineralised porphyry intrusion; 2005 prod costs <$100 oz; infrastruct benefits from Cadia).
Interesting to note in 15-8-06 announc description of this hole in a different (?) type of porphyry - more potassic etc - but I'm not sure if this is the alteration. Good to note however that rather than discrete qtz veins, mineralisation is 'disseminated' and there is mention of a breccia. Brecciated (good fluid pathway; chicken or egg as to whether fluid helped break up the rock or exploited this pathway), hydrothermally altered (fluid altered) is a great target. It is a pity that this target (magnetite/chalcopy/pyrite) may be too deep for standard quick & dirty & cheap geophysical surveys (eg Induced Polarisation); if the volcanic rock types  include basalts (as at Cadia?) that might also rule out much of the geophysics. While it's only one hole, future Au values have to be much better to be in the same league as Ridgeway. 
Strange to see discussion of scissoring a hole or dropping a vertical one. Indication of how little they knew of it at the time?
Hope this helps, I've got to get back to work.


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## Sean K (28 August 2006)

Yep, as expected. Bounced off $0.081 which is minor support. Quite a few buyers coming in to pick it up around $0.084 which is encouraging. Wouldn't be happy with it slipping back through $0.08, but with such a rapid gain anything's possible on bad news.

As I said earlier though, I'm not trading this one short term, just sitting on the upside potential of CH. I'm hoping it turns into a 1.5 oz + resource (over 2m would be nice but a bit blue sky) after this new extention is factored in.


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## Alfredbra (28 August 2006)

arghh shouldve sold on friday, all im seeing in my portfolio is red red red! why are all my stocks down today   I plan to hold long term also, there is hope


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## Archinos (28 August 2006)

kennas
so you are looking at this as an Au resource, not a Cu one?


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## Sean K (28 August 2006)

Archinos said:
			
		

> kennas
> so you are looking at this as an Au resource, not a Cu one?




Yeah I have been, probably to error. I get too excited when I see the letters Au......and don't see anything else. he, he. Best I look a bit closer.


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## Archinos (28 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yeah I have been, probably to error. I get too excited when I see the letters Au......and don't see anything else. he, he. Best I look a bit closer.



No worries, so do I. Precious metals and energy...
Well they do have approx 1.4 Moz Au and counting (including the Cu it's 4.7 Moz 'Au equivalent'), so the balance is they'll be adding to that before long given that it's very early days. Whether it's economical or not to mine is another question. That's why I pointed to Newcrests Cadia - Cadia has half the Cu grade, twice the Au. It cost Newcrest approx $400 oz to produce in 2005 (I'm assuming it's including Cu as 'Au equivalent') and I can only see costs increasing this yr). At A$10K a metric t for Cu, that's lots of doh for CopHil (455 kilot), but I'll leave it to others with the right slide rules to work out if a mine might be a goer or not.


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## Sean K (28 August 2006)

Archinos said:
			
		

> No worries, so do I. Precious metals and energy...
> Well they do have approx 1.4 Moz Au and counting (including the Cu it's 4.7 Moz 'Au equivalent'), so the balance is they'll be adding to that before long given that it's very early days. Whether it's economical or not to mine is another question. That's why I pointed to Newcrests Cadia - Cadia has half the Cu grade, twice the Au. It cost Newcrest approx $400 oz to produce in 2005 (I'm assuming it's including Cu as 'Au equivalent') and I can only see costs increasing this yr). At A$10K a metric t for Cu, that's lots of doh for CopHil (455 kilot), but I'll leave it to others with the right slide rules to work out if a mine might be a goer or not.




I think I'm generally focussing on gold and uranium as I'm a little bearish atm. Cautious anyway.


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## Sean K (30 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yep, as expected. Bounced off $0.081 which is minor support. Quite a few buyers coming in to pick it up around $0.084 which is encouraging. *Wouldn't be happy with it slipping back through $0.08,* but with such a rapid gain anything's possible on bad news.
> 
> As I said earlier though, I'm not trading this one short term, just sitting on the upside potential of CH. I'm hoping it turns into a 1.5 oz + resource (over 2m would be nice but a bit blue sky) after this new extention is factored in.




Broken through support at $0.08, hopefully parachutes utilised, unless your long term. Next stop .07 and .06....


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## Sean K (19 September 2006)

Another good ann yesterday with another good intersection north of the main deposit at Copper Hill. 

This will significantly upgrade the resource estimate when they've done enough drilling for JORC imo. Looking like it could be 2m+ oz gold resource, putting it up there as one of the bigger deposits n Australia.

Stabilised after the excitment of the massive intersection announced in early Aug at just over $0.07 with what seems to be support around this level.


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## Alfredbra (9 October 2006)

GCR might be going for a run if it breaks .64c news bound to be out soon from copper hill.

just starting to follow this stock again, opinions anyone?


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## Sean K (24 October 2006)

Well, this has had a pretty crappy run since all the excitement of the significant Copper Hill intersections in early August. 

Driven straight down through technical support lines to it's recent lows. Can't work out why tis has been punished so much when they have 4.7m oz total gold and 450K tns copper JORC in the ground and the clear potential for furthe upgrades. Just the gold is worth $2.8 bn. 

They have 409m shares on issue and 55m oppies at about $0.10, giving it a market cap of about 27.2m. 

What am I missing here? I know it's going to cost a few dollars to dig the stuff out of the ground but it's sitting on a rail line and Cadia Ridgeway (30m oz au) is just down the road and the town of Molong is just over there!


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

Good ann this am. Copper Hill just keeps getting better.


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## Kipp (13 November 2006)

Struth... I thought it time someone else put a post on here just so you don't start quoting and debating yourself!

Thought cracking 40 on the RSI was a major breakthrough for GCR when SP started to creep up last week, but apparently not, as it's on the slide once again... (Forgive my lame Yahoo charts!)

What's your outlook like for copper Kennas?  I've got to say I'm pretty bearish, LME stocks are on the up and I'm not sure that there's the same underlying demand (specualtion aside) as Zinc/Nickel enjoy (just an opinion).


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## Sean K (13 November 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Struth... I thought it time someone else put a post on here just so you don't start quoting and debating yourself!
> 
> Thought cracking 40 on the RSI was a major breakthrough for GCR when SP started to creep up last week, but apparently not, as it's on the slide once again... (Forgive my lame Yahoo charts!)
> 
> What's your outlook like for copper Kennas?  I've got to say I'm pretty bearish, LME stocks are on the up and I'm not sure that there's the same underlying demand (specualtion aside) as Zinc/Nickel enjoy (just an opinion).



Kipp, I have a copper bear suit on. Very negative after it slid through critical support on Friday. This led to today's massacre of BHP, amongst others. 

However, the thing about GCR is that all the resource dev has been done assuming copper and gold and much lower levels. And while copper is a key part of the resource there's a substantial amount of Au there. I only looked at this for the gold originally. With the recent digging I can see another resource upgrade on the cards and gold going to 1000 bucks (fingers crossed), and this unhedged, it could be a pure gold play. Copper is a bonus to me on this one.

Must admit my average entry is about $0.052, and there's limited downside with the quality of the ground. 

I'm holding.

PS, nice chart Kipp.


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## Sean K (23 November 2006)

GCR has been extremely boring the past month. Boring!

What will pick it up soon is the next set of drilling results and perhaps a revised resource estimate and an approximate date set for the PFS on Copper Hill. Now that will be exciting!   

This should happen very shortly. Before Chrsitmas, but they seem to come out with an ann each month and the last one stated that there was a whole pile of ore at the shop waiting to be tested. Plus a few drill samples from one part of the last drill program that were yet to be treated. I guess, before the end of next week.   It has to because I have it in the stock comp!!!!!!

I bought more around these levels because I just can't see it going any lower, and the chart seems to support that.


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## CanOz (23 November 2006)

Agree Kennas, another one whos flat trend shows a reluctance to sell anymore. I like these.

Cheers,


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## Sean K (30 November 2006)

Unusual volume and gain this am. Up to $0.06 - 11%. Odd. Chart to follow. More results must be about to come out from CH.


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## Sean K (30 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Unusual volume and gain this am. Up to $0.06 - 11%. Odd. Chart to follow. More results must be about to come out from CH.



Well, as quickly as it went up, it fell back down.


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## Sean K (30 November 2006)

Perhaps it was just resistance at $0.06...


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## Kipp (8 December 2006)

Back to the unpenatrable resistance line of 5.2c.  I suppose the drilling results were pretty dissapointing- so much gold- such a low grade.  The soil in my backyard prob has 0.6% gold- maybe I should float a speccie company!

<insert lazy no research question> What sort of grade do they have next door at Newcrest?  Are they also dealing with ~1% Au deposits?

Also may be a good buying opp for GCR- as CBA recently jumped ship on a fair wad of stock which no doubt has added a hell of alot of sell depth, which could be a greater reason for SP jumping back to 5.2... maybe a bigger factor than the drilling results?

p.s.  Nice pick on INL and GGY.     Guess you've shouting those hippies at the BC a few drinks.


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## Sean K (8 December 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Back to the unpenatrable resistance line of 5.2c.  I suppose the drilling results were pretty dissapointing- so much gold- such a low grade.  The soil in my backyard prob has 0.6% gold- maybe I should float a speccie company!
> 
> <insert lazy no research question> What sort of grade do they have next door at Newcrest?  Are they also dealing with ~1% Au deposits?
> 
> ...



Hi Kipp,

Not sure what to think about CBA reducing their holding. 

I completely missed this ann. Didn't come up on Power Etrade for some reason. It actually looks good to me. With all these results fed into the revised estimate they'll easily have more than 500K tn cu and 1.3m oz au. It's a great resource that will be easy to dig up. I'll help them....

Perhaps the market was expecting better results....


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## Kipp (8 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> to dig up. I'll help them....
> 
> Perhaps the market was expecting better results....



Heya Kennas,
Easy because it is open pit you mean?  So is it more economical to mine 1 mill oz at 30 m depth and 0.6g/Ton grade than it would be for say BMA who have ~10g Au/ton grade at 300m?  These figures are very ballpark- I'm speaking in general terms.  I suppose the great advantage GCR have is easy transport, which could offst their higher mining costs.


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## Sean K (8 December 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Heya Kennas,
> Easy because it is open pit you mean?  So is it more economical to mine 1 mill oz at 30 m depth and 0.6g/Ton grade than it would be for say BMA who have ~10g Au/ton grade at 300m?  These figures are very ballpark- I'm speaking in general terms.  I suppose the great advantage GCR have is easy transport, which could offst their higher mining costs.



Yeah it's an easy open pit operation. They only need to virtually level the Hill and spoon it on to the rail line that is, what, 5 m away? Actually, I think the proposed mill is further away, like, 200m.


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## Sean K (13 January 2007)

Woof woof, 

GCR has been out of the spotlight, with no recent anns, copper and gold working their way back to equilibrium, and sp gets a smashing. Perhaps by too far unless something has gone horribly wrong at Copper Hill. I do note CBA are off the substantial shareholder register, so that might explain the sell off. Why would CBA sell? Perhaps they know that this project has no legs???

1.4m oz au (maybe to be upgraded) just down the road from Cadia (NCM), next to the rail line, open pit, blah blah, again. 

I suppose I place this post out there to show that I think the sp has come off too far (IMO, as a holder). MACD and RSI are shocking. It can only go up on that, surely?  Stochastics isn't oversold atm though, but it's a 2 yr weekly, so it's not as atune to movements. It's way below on the daily....Points to a good trading opp. With POG and POC appreciating (slightly - or maybe recovering) then I'm thinking of a short term trading op, as opposed to an 'investment'. 

I'm holding my 'investment' because the resource is there (maybe - who knows after the BDG fiasco?) and it looks economical. 

Not sure if anyone else has bought some or been interested...anyone....anyone??


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## exgeo (13 January 2007)

I've noticed CBA selling out a couple of other small resource stocks I hold such as GUN (Gunson), so perhaps the selling is just a result of portfolio re-balancing rather than a signal that something's up at GCR. It is pretty low-grade, but if there's enough of it then it's got to be worth something (bulk mining methods). Cadia's resource is listed first in the table below:

*Cadia (0.57% Cu equivalent)**
267Mt @ 0.65g/t Au, 0.15% Cu (for 5.5Moz Au and 400kt Cu)
136Mt @ 0.32g/t Au, 0.33% Cu (for 1.4Moz Au and 455Kt Cu)
*GCR   (0.46% Cu equivalent)**

*Copper equivalent calculated using conversion factor of 0.2g/t Au = 0.13% Cu. This will of course change, depending on the metal prices used at the time of conversion.


----------



## Sean K (13 January 2007)

exgeo said:
			
		

> I've noticed CBA selling out a couple of other small resource stocks I hold such as GUN (Gunson), so perhaps the selling is just a result of portfolio re-balancing rather than a signal that something's up at GCR. It is pretty low-grade, but if there's enough of it then it's got to be worth something (bulk mining methods). Cadia's resource is listed first in the table below:
> 
> *Cadia (0.57% Cu equivalent)**
> 267Mt @ 0.65g/t Au, 0.15% Cu (for 5.5Moz Au and 400kt Cu)
> ...



Geo, you mean that Copper Hill has: 
136Mt @ 0.32g/t Au, 0.33% Cu (for 1.4Moz Au and 455Kt Cu)
Ya?


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## exgeo (13 January 2007)

I've noticed that using current metal prices, copper hill actually seems MORE valuable on a dollar/ton rock basis than cadia. The economics of Copper Hilll must be very geared to the copper price. I used metals prices of 5800 USD/t Cu and 620 USD/Oz Au and a USD ex. rate of 75c = 1 AUD. I assume that the rise in the copper price since GCR calculated their resource has meant that the conversion of 0.2g/t Au = 0.13% Cu is out of date, therefore the copper-equivalent grades listed in my earlier post should be ignored (I got this figure from a GCR report about 9 months ago).

Cadia's resource is listed first in the table below, Copp Hill second:

*Cadia*
267Mt @ 0.65g/t Au, 0.15% Cu (for 5.5Moz Au and 400kt Cu)
136Mt @ 0.32g/t Au, 0.33% Cu (for 1.4Moz Au and 455Kt Cu)
*GCR*

To calulate a value per ton of rock I did this. metal qty/ton rock * metal price * usd>aud conversion.

Cadia Gold = (0.65/31.1) * 620 * 1.33 = 17.23 AUD
Cadia Cop =  0.0015 *     5800 * 1.33 = 11.57 AUD
                                            Total = *28.80* AUD/t rock

CoHill Gold = (0.32/31.1) * 620 * 1.33 = 8.48 AUD
CoHill Cop =  (0.0033 *    5800 * 1.33 = 25.45 AUD
                                            Total = *33.93* AUD/t rock

Of course you can plug your own long-term metal price assumptions into this formula and play about with the numbers. If you could be bothered, you could even do a chart in excel of copper-equivalent grade vs. metal price.


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## mmmmining (13 January 2007)

I am not fan of low grade Cu deposit anymore. There are so many of them all over the world. $30-40/t rock seems of very low economic value, particularly in a soaring mining and processing costs environment. Even worst with a bit of Au and a bit of Cu.

For comparison purpose, you can easily get $60/t for ire ore, or $50/t for thermal coal just mining and transport with little or no processing.


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## exgeo (15 January 2007)

From minesite.com- January 14, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Canada



> The on again, off again take over war for BCMetals is back on again. British Columbian copper miners, Imperial Metals and Taseko Mines continue to inch up their bids in an effort to win control of the advanced Red Chris copper-gold deposit in northern British Columbia. With proven and probable reserves of 277.8 million tonnes grading 0.35% copper and 0.27 g/t per tonne, plus an additional measured, indicated and inferred resources outside the pit shell of 574.8 million tonnes at 0.32% copper and 0.28 g/t gold, the stakes are high. Taseko recently upped its bid by a nickel to C$1.15 for each BCMetals share out- duelling Imperial Metals' increased offer of C$1.125 per share. Imperial already holds around 17.2 per cent of BCMetals' shares while Taseko owns nearly 5 per cent.




This capitalises BCMetals at 42.6m CAD (46.4m AUD). GCR is capped at 27.2m AUD (504m shares * 5.4c). Therefore, given the current resource, GCR is trading around the right levels perhaps. But it does go to show that there is a "market" for this calibre of resource (compare BC Metals with GCR's resource. GCR 0.33gt/t Au, 0.32% Cu vs. BCM 0.27g/t Au, 0.35% Cu). Also, GCR is still drilling out their deposit, so resource upgrades are likely.


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## exgeo (29 January 2007)

Some of today's results look a lot better than what's been drilled so far, some over 2g/t Au equivalent, not too bad for a bulk deposit. Also the area of mineralisation is still open. The resource upgrade will be interesting when it arrives..


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## sydneysider (29 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Woof woof,
> 
> GCR has been out of the spotlight, with no recent anns, copper and gold working their way back to equilibrium, and sp gets a smashing. Perhaps by too far unless something has gone horribly wrong at Copper Hill. I do note CBA are off the substantial shareholder register, so that might explain the sell off. Why would CBA sell? Perhaps they know that this project has no legs???
> 
> ...




The market is so fixated on U and there are so many small listed companies that a lot of stocks have been condemned to orphan status. As more listings take place on the ASX this problem will grow more severe. We might even end up with a Canadian type situation with two trading boards. I am staying with U stocks as this is the only sector that is attracting substantial overseas funds. GGR will remain an orphan.


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## exgeo (29 January 2007)

It's unlikely that GCR's JORC resource "isn't there". You are really comparing apples and pears here. Bendigo's resource is high-grade nuggety gold. If you put a hole in position "x" you drill straight through solid gold. If you move the hole 20cm to the left, you miss the nugget and get zero. These are very hard to estimate via drillholes alone, as BDG shareholder will be able to testify all too well.

GCR's resource is bulk tonnage, low grade and disseminated, basically the polar opposite of nuggety gold. Much easier to estimate what's there based on drillholes. If the mineralised zone is 60m thick, moving the hole few metres away will likely give an almost identical result.

CFS have been selling lots of small junior resources, for example Gunson (GUN). And you'd think gunson would be one to hold on to given that there's predicted to be shortage of the stuff they're hoping to produce. CFS are just re-weighting the portfolio away from resources a bit I'd imagine.


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## exgeo (5 February 2007)

Looks like somebody else has noticed that the last holes were much higher grade than the previous lot. Must be a reasonable positive that it's rising on a day after base metals prices crashed by 10%.


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## Uncle Festivus (5 February 2007)

exgeo I've been on this for a few years based only on the 'shotgun' style of exploration ie lot's of prospects, farm-in/out in the hope one of them would hit paydirt. Hopefully this one's it & should be further confirmation with each hole. Nice volume today too, as you say, on a 'down' day. 

I reckon BDG will come back too, again a long term holding 

PS straighten up yer rig there, your hole will be crooked.


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## Flipper15 (7 February 2007)

Hi exgeo, kennas & other posters,

Interesting stage for GCR, looks like they are being rerated. I have studied the stock closely for the last 15 months and believe that their steady as she goes approach with no fanfare may just win out in the end. The market is chasing high grade drill hits etc on companies that are only starting to drill prospects. GCR has a big head start, probably at least 2 years ahead of many. The low grade is there but the high tonnage may get them across the line.

The focus on Copper Hill is warranted but I think sometimes that the market has forgotten about the other prospects.

In the announcement 2 days ago the reference to Parkes and others was interesting. I had not seen Parkes referred to as an important property to them previously. No mention of a farm out so they must rate it.

Others that I thought they may keep for themselves such as Cargo have been farmed out.

Also note that Cargo is being drilled this quarter and the Adelong sale must be close now. What they get for it is the big question, but it could contribute to a rise in the share price maybe between half a cent to one cent.

So there is a lot more to GCR than Copper Hill.

I think we will be remindered of that in the next 6 months with Parkes and the farm outs.

It was curious to see a more confident tone about the January drilling results which begs the question why they didn't mention other recent results in the same way.

I am referring to holes 238 wwith an intersection of 72 metres at 0.61 Cu & 1.86 Au and hole 242 with 142 metres at 0.83 Cu & 1.38 Au.

Both particularly strong in gold.

What did you guys think of these holes ? They probably don't change the average grades and we can cherry pick the better results but they show that Copper Hill can still get some big hits.

Also, I can't believe that Newcrest would not be having a serious look at them at some stage. They are an obvious predator being just 40km up the raod with Cadia. And they are successfully mining Cadia so there would be efficiencies with knowledge, etc.

Does anyone think that Newcrest would be interested ?

My view is that if current commodity prices can hold at these levels then in 3-4 years time when they should be mining Copper Hill that the share price will not be 5 cents any longer, more like 20 cents plus.

Flipper


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## exgeo (7 February 2007)

Well, I was interested before just because it had a large tonnage and as you say, might just have gotten across the line because of that. Now that they are finding higher grade stuff then that makes it even more likely to be a goer. The location is good, with grid power, railway and so on. The IP survery will hopefully highlight some new drilling targets as well.

No idea about NCM takeover - they've been mooted as a takeover themselves for how long?! Personally if I was driving a large mining company, I'd only take over NCM from the administrators, but egos and non asbestos-lined pockets have a way of parting CEOs with their cash.

Market cap is still only $27m (504m shares * 5.4c) and they have $6.9m in cash, from the Dec 06 qtly.


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## Flipper15 (7 February 2007)

Thanks exgeo, dissapointing finish.

Needs more believers of the story to be holders, instead of a selloff which undoes a lot of the good work.

This may creep up on many eventually.

Realistically with Copper Hill I think we are looking at the end of this year to be at that stage.

Flipper


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## exgeo (15 February 2007)

I was surprised to note that one of the directors cut his shareholding by 1/3 (750,000>500,000 shares), selling at 5c. Maybe he wants to buy them back at 4.8c or something? Anyway, I'm glad I sold a couple of days ago, for reasons relating only to wanting the money for a short-term trading opportunity, nothing relating to GCR. As I said before, the latest drilling seems like good news for this project.


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## exgeo (7 March 2007)

From a stockanalysis.com.au report on another mining company with a copper project, Peter Strachan comments that "Firstly it has a low grade, with an insitu value of just A$54/t". Therefore Copper Hill with an in-situ value of around the mid 30's per tonne doesn't look that great. Let's hope the latest drilling can bump the overall grade up a bit.


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## Sean K (7 March 2007)

I've jumped ship. Been holding for yonks for no return. Would earn more money investing in worms. Just my technical opinion.   

I actually think the gold is a better play on this. 1.2m oz isn't it? To be extended maybe to 1.5m oz, IMO. Open pit. Near Cadia....Market cap $20m...

There's people over on the NWR thread salivating at potentially 500K at 300 - 600m depth....in the middle of the desert...Market cap $27m...

Hhhm, why did I sell?


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## exgeo (7 March 2007)

I also jumped ship, but not because I was negative on the stock, only because I wanted the money for something else. But in the end it turned out to be a lucky break that I sold when I did. NWR's resource is an order of magnitude higher grade than GCR's, hence the interest. A lot less tonnes would have to be moved and processed to git the gold.


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## Sean K (7 March 2007)

exgeo said:
			
		

> I also jumped ship, but not because I was negative on the stock, only because I wanted the money for something else. But in the end it turned out to be a lucky break that I sold when I did. NWR's resource is an order of magnitude higher grade than GCR's, hence the interest. A lot less tonnes would have to be moved and processed to git the gold.



Doesn't open pit change the dynamics considerably. Moving 1 tn from an open pit must be a little easier than from 1000m? Or is it the processing/milling where the advantages really lay?


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## exgeo (7 March 2007)

Bit of both. Underground mining perhaps costs 4x (I am willing to be correctd on this point!) as much as open pit, but if the grade is 10x higher, it's still a more profitable operation. And then of course you have to crush and otherwise process less rock, so the milling costs are less.


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## surfingman (7 March 2007)

I sold friday as wasnt doing anything lost interest....


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## Dr Doom (26 March 2007)

Resource upgrade/downgrade soon?. Anyone still interested in this one?


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## Sean K (23 May 2007)

For some time GCR have been claiming they were focussing 'all efforts' on Copper Hill and farming out other property, blah, blah.

But, what do you know? They go out a buy a private company that has some land with potential for uranium. 

Ho, hum..............

They should have bought a dot com company and got in early before all these other juniors jumping on the U bandwagon go bankrupt as well when the funding all dries up and they have nothing economic to mine.


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## Uncle Festivus (23 May 2007)

kennas said:


> For some time GCR have been claiming they were focussing 'all efforts' on Copper Hill and farming out other property, blah, blah.
> 
> But, what do you know? They go out a buy a private company that has some land with potential for uranium.
> 
> ...




Well I like it a lot, and so did whoever traded the 24mil shares and 20% price rise. Can't complain about that, unless you had just sold; say it isn't so Kennas.
Look on  the bright side, it will probably retrace tomorrow, so you can buy some then?


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## Robroy (30 May 2007)

*GCR - The Speculator's buy of the week*

GCR (Golden Cross Resources) is the buy of the week in The Speculator column in The Bulletin magazine.

The magazine isn't up on the website yet, however it is hitting the newsstands as I write.

The write-up is highly positive, with The Spec pointing out that the share price is now starting to come good "with a thrust into uranium, gold and nickel in WA and Queensland" thru its purchase of King Eagle Resources.

The WA site alone offers a defined uranium resource of 
10.8 millions tons of .14% U3O8. Drilling commences shortly.

The column should go online some time today or tonight at http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/david-haselhurst/

Prices have come back off last week's highs tho, which I personally took as a good opp to buy in this morning - tho as always DYOR.


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## yogi-in-oz (31 May 2007)

Hi folks,

GCR ..... several positive cycles coming up in June 2007:

   3105-05062007 ... underlying positive tone for GCR

      08-11062007 ... 2 significant time cycles in play here, 
                                should put GCR under a positive light.

     27-28062007 ... significant and positive time cycle ...
                               ..... finance-related ... ???

     11-12072007 ... negative spotlight on GCR.

happy days

   paul

P.S. ..... holding GCR


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## Whiskers (21 August 2007)

Who knows what's cooking with GCR now... with all those new prospects and drill ready targets?

Firstly, this is a bold new step for GCR to finally get out of NSW.

Secondly, that's a lot of new prospects to take on all at once without somebody knowing something... isn't it?

Also, what companies are looking at investing in Copper Hill?


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## Whiskers (23 August 2007)

Well, finally some good news about Copper Hill. 

GCR’s Managing Director, Kim Stanton-Cook, said today (ASX ann. inter-alia)

"The project has the capacity to deliver a steady stream of copper-in-concentrate for at least ten years at reasonable cost, so the big hurdle for GCR is the estimated capital cost. GCR will consider potential joint venturers requiring a steady supply of clean copper concentrate with gold credits and the financial capacity to fund the project through to start-up.”

Still Curious!

Who's been looking at Copper Hill?

Supposed to be a lot of drilling at Canbelego, the new Rast EL's, Mulga Tank, Panama and Labrador soon. Anyone know how that's going?


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## moses (24 August 2007)

I must have run about 100 stocks through the Neilson SMA over the last couple of nights and GCR is the pick of a pretty ordinary bunch. There has been rising quality in the buying pressure in the after hours depth queue for 3 weeks (black line), and now the number of buys to sells pressure is increasing (blue line). If this continues the SP should rise sharply, especially if the blue line crosses the black line. 

Golden Cross is a gold, uranium and base metals explorer holding tenements in the Lachlan Fold Belt, Curnamona Province and Thomson Orogen of New South Wales, the Mount Isa, Georgetown and Bowen regions of Queensland and the Yilgarn Block of Western Australia, and exploration interests in Panama and Labrador, Canada.  GCR continues to take its 100%-owned Copper Hill project forward, with further mining and financial studies planned and new exploration prospects identified. 

I picked up my parcel this morning. DYOR.


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## moses (29 August 2007)

GCR's buy signal from the Neilson SMA chart just keeps getting better. This time I've included this morning's market depth as an illustration of how the Neilson SMA chart works; notice that the average size (the so called "smart" quality) of buys is much greater than the average size of sells. Most importantly this "smart quality" is consistent all the way down, and not just at the bottom of the queue at a ridiculously low price.


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## Sean K (29 August 2007)

Hoooly doooly, what the flock has happened to GCR!  

I haven't looked at this for some time until M's latests posts..

What the?

I'd have to put this in the PSV catagory. 

That is, what the hell is going at GCR!!! 

Someone call this company because they are looking like administration material.

Hold on, I will call them tomorrow to ask.....ooshhhhh.


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## moses (30 August 2007)

Ann out, GCR up 11% (nothing amazing about that today though). At least it confirms that the Neilson SMA chart is a good indicator of impending news.

Some snippets of a well illustrated 7 page report...

Drilling at Kempfield, NSW has intersected broad zones of silver-lead-zinc mineralisation, 
including: 
• 50m at 1.70% zinc, 1.25% lead and 28.8 g/t silver, including: 
• 12m at 4.81 % zinc, 3.03% lead and 60.2 g/t silver; and 
• 80m at 1.09% zinc, 0.36% lead, 16.8 g/t silver and 0.22 g/t gold. 
The 50m intersection has an in-ground value of over A$125 per tonne at current metal 
prices. 


GCR Managing Director, Kim Stanton-Cook, said today 
“The Kempfield drilling results are encouraging, and indicate continuity of silver-lead- 
zinc-gold mineralisation down dip and along strike in multiple parallel zones.  The 
recent Kempfield and Sunny Corner drilling provides vectors for follow-up drilling at 
depth and along strike.  Kempfield Silver Pty Ltd intends to undertake follow-up drilling 
at both properties. 
The Kempfield property is still at an early stage of exploration.  The major barite 
bodies, with elevated base metals and silver grades, may indicate proximity to a major 
base metals sulphide deposit at depth.”


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## Whiskers (1 September 2007)

Hi kennas

You summed up my sentiments pretty well. 


kennas said:


> Hoooly doooly, what the flock has happened to GCR!
> 
> Someone call this company because they are looking like administration material.
> 
> Hold on, I will call them tomorrow to ask.....ooshhhhh.




What did they tell you? 

I think they have about $5m in the bank, but with the recent acquisitions and their forcast works program, they will surely need more cash in a few months time. 

That's what I find a bit odd. They must be more than confident that one of the next drill programs will hit the jackpot, or a JV with someone for Copper Hill, or they have something up their sleves, otherwise their fundraising is going to be more like a busker hoping to get a few gold coins. :horse:


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## Whiskers (1 September 2007)

Hello moses

I'm l looking for some prophetical wisdom or intuition or something out of this Neilsen SMA.



moses said:


> Ann out, GCR up 11% (nothing amazing about that today though). At least it confirms that the Neilson SMA chart is a good indicator of impending news.




Is that Neilsen indicator still looking like buyers are queing up, or was that bit of news it... have they vanished in disillusionment again?

I'm curious whether it is more valuable than the other typical lagging indicators.

It seems to me that it may strictly be a lagging indicator, but it potentially gives a better forcasting indicaton than the others.

I'm just trying to scrounge a bit more insight before I decide to subscribe.


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## moses (2 September 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Hello moses
> 
> I'm l looking for some prophetical wisdom or intuition or something out of this Neilsen SMA.
> 
> ...




I'd say SOMETIMES gives a better forcasting indication, and well worth the $500 or so. Don't use it without consulting SP and Volume.

But to GCR...the pressure is still positive but the momentum is falling, which makes me less bullish than I was. The weakest sign is that the blue line trend has stopped; I was hoping it would keep rising through the black.


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## Whiskers (17 September 2007)

I was getting a bit depressed about this one, but I found a some news buried in the annual report released on 12 Sept to be a little optermistic about. 

I didn't notice these encouraging gold intersections from the power anomoly reported anywhere else. 



> The Power Anomaly, about 2 km southeast of Copper Hill, was
> discovered by the recent IP survey and has been tested by only
> one hole, to a depth of 420m. Only trace chalcopyrite was
> observed, but gold grades of 1.5 g/t were returned over two 5m
> ...




Hopefully, a hive of drilling activity soon.



> Drilling is scheduled on six GCR properties subject to farm-in or joint venture prior to 31 December 2007. In addition, GCR plans to
> drill on at least three properties not subject to farm-in or joint venture.




including;



> Stratigraphic and structural settings
> documented at Woodlawn have been identified within parts of
> the Cullarin licence. Tri Origin Minerals has farmed into the
> tenement and plans to drill the property in September 2007.




and the Mulga Tank uranium and nickel prospect which was aborted in Aug to obtain a heavier duty drill rig.


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## Whiskers (17 September 2007)

Looks like a bit of a bollinger band squeeze forming.

Surely it has to break upwards, doesn't it? 

Hey moses, are you still watching this one with that neilsen SMA?


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## Whiskers (18 September 2007)

Traded .039 to .04 up .003 against the market on modest increase in volume today. Highest volume for about three weeks. Got a DMI cross over too.

Smells a bit like something about to happen.


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## Uncle Festivus (19 September 2007)

Unfortunately there appears to be one sector of the market that has just died in the ars* basically - the junior explorers. Unless & until some extremely good news comes out, the volumes of the previous bull market just won't be around to move the sp's any significant distance. There could also be a flight to quality stocks also, to the detriment of the juniors, especially those who need to go back to the market for funding. 

The only bright spot is if they are exploring for gold, or in GCR's case have multiple projects in hand and possible mining not too far in to the future.


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## Whiskers (19 September 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Unfortunately there appears to be one sector of the market that has just died in the ars* basically - the junior explorers. Unless & until some extremely good news comes out, the volumes of the previous bull market just won't be around to move the sp's any significant distance. There could also be a flight to quality stocks also, to the detriment of the juniors, especially those who need to go back to the market for funding.
> 
> The only bright spot is if they are exploring for gold, or in GCR's case have multiple projects in hand and possible mining not too far in to the future.




You're quite right Uncle Festivus. I thought there might have been something starting yesterday, but the volume and price died today, as you say no doubt for quality producers.

I believe their cash will get them through this next quite big round of drilling then they will most likely have to go the shareholders for funds. 

I wasn't looking foreward to putting more cash into them without seeing some sort of gain. I took some profits in July. I'm kicking myself that I didn't sell all of them in July.

I suppose one conselation is that I might as well hold them for another couple of months and claim the 50% CGT discount.


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## Uncle Festivus (21 September 2007)

Whiskers,
I'm thinking that the figures for Copper Hill are starting to look even better now with the recent surge in the POG. Their 3 case scenario for various gold prices is now well and truly into the upper valuation over $700 giving the project a NPV over $900 million. Assuming they can temp a joint venture partner, their interest will get diluted, but it still should be a nice little earner, esp with the share price where it is.
UF


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## Whiskers (21 September 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Whiskers,
> I'm thinking that the figures for Copper Hill are starting to look even better now with the recent surge in the POG. Their 3 case scenario for various gold prices is now well and truly into the upper valuation over $700 giving the project a NPV over $900 million. Assuming they can temp a joint venture partner, their interest will get diluted, but it still should be a nice little earner, esp with the share price where it is.
> UF




I agree, Uncle Festivus. When I did the sums ages ago the most $ value was in copper, but it seems that people were unsure if the copper price would hold to keep the project vialbe. While fustrated with the company, and taking some profit earlier, I was always confident that the copper and gold price combination would keep the project viable, hence I could only bring myself to sell 1/3 of my holding.

But, as you say, the POG will attract a lot more interest and if it holds for a substantial period, which I'm inclined to believe it will, it not only gets peoples attention but transforms it from a marginally profitable project to a very reasonably profitable one.


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## Uncle Festivus (24 September 2007)

Another thing to factor in is the number of active drill campaigns going on or about to start within the next qtr - no less than 9 separate joint venture and own drilling projects. Good odds at this price I think.


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## Whiskers (8 October 2007)

GCR's JV partner TRO made the following announcement on 5 Sept 07.

JV partners often replicate the notices, but for whatever reason GCR didn't with this one.



> Tri Origin Minerals Ltd (Tri Origin) is pleased to announce exploration drilling will commence this week within the Cullarin Project Joint Venture area located approximately 30 kilometres north of its Woodlawn Zinc-Copper Projects site in New South Wales.
> 
> This initial programme of reverse circulation drilling to be thereafter followed up by deeper diamond drilling is focussed on the Cullarin Valley Prospect located towards the southern end of the Joint Venture area (Figure1).
> 
> ...


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## Whiskers (15 October 2007)

I posted a breakout alert in the breakout alert thread for GCR last week, more on fundamentals, but supported by the charts. Normal volume today, but there certainly seems to be a willingness to pay a bit more for them now.

I would suggest that the POG gaining strength and copper holding above $3.50 is starting to get people thinking copper hill is now becoming a very profitable operation if it can gear up to production quickly. If these prices hold for a few years as some reports suggest, then the whole 1.2m oz's of gold and about .421m t of copper might be mined profitably.

Then there are about nine prospects currently drilling or to be drilled before the end of year. 

I have felt this one has been undervalued for quite some time, but with the new acquisitions lately it must surely be worth considerably more if the new prospects continue reporting results as previously.

Only another week and I get the 50% CGT discount on the first lot I bought.


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## Uncle Festivus (16 October 2007)

It's on the move Whiskers by the looks, even on a down day for the rest of the market - up 15%.


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## Whiskers (16 October 2007)

Looking like people are starting to notice alright, uncle festivus.

I just had another look at the diagram provided by TRO with their notice I posted above. There has not been an awful lot of drilling so far but it's not hard to see why TRO thinks there is potential for a significant gold and base metals operation to supplement their current operation nearby.

The two better holes are:

WL31: 147.4m @ 1.06g/t Au, 8.4g/t Ag, .19% Cu, .03% Pb, & .11% Zn.
including 14.6m @ 5g/t Au, 1g/t Ag.

WL24: 110.2m @ .63g/t Au, 7g/t Ag, .04% Cu, .29% Pb, & .48% Zn.
including 11.3m @ 3.9g/t Au, 24g/t Ag, .06% Cu, 1.61% Pb, & 2.17% Zn.


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## Trader Paul (16 October 2007)

Hi folks,

GCR ... looking for a BIG spike in price, between 29102007 and 02112007 ... 

happy days

  paul



=====


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## Uncle Festivus (18 October 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> GCR ... looking for a BIG spike in price, between 29102007 and 02112007 ...
> 
> ...




Hi Paul,
I know you base your study on astro stuff, but would it be possible to add a bit more info eg how big is BIG? Post an astro chart maybe so we can see where you are coming from? Doesn't need to be a complete/in depth explanation , just something to shed some light on the logic of it all? Technically, going by the forum rules, it's a ramp?
Thanks,
UF


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## Whiskers (25 October 2007)

GCR is starting to raise more funds already. Since they still have about $5m in the bank, I would have thought they would have got some drill results posted first rather than announcing it on the bottom of their share price when they have so many projects to kick off. 



> 25 October 2007
> *Share Purchase Plan*
> Golden Cross Resources today announced that it intends to implement a share purchase plan (“the plan”). Under the plan, shareholders with registered addresses in Australia or New Zealand who are on the share register on Thursday 1 November 2007 will be entitled to subscribe for up to $5,000 dollars worth of fully paid ordinary Golden Cross shares at an issue price of 3.75 cents per share. This price represents a discount of 11% to the weighted average price of Golden Cross shares over the ten trading days up to and including Wednesday 24 October 2007.
> 
> ...


----------



## Uncle Festivus (25 October 2007)

Hi Whiskers,
Hopefully Trader Pauls crystal ball comes good and 3.75c will be a bargain on Monday


----------



## Trader Paul (25 October 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> GCR ... looking for a BIG spike in price, between 29102007 and 02112007 ...
> 
> ...






Hi folks,
GCR ... updated chart ...  shows price has recently broken out,
above 3 x MAs and is currently testing support, before the expected
next leg up ..... 

As per post above, we expect 3 positive time cycles to come into
play next week, to lift it further off the lows, that it has established
on the lower edge of the ellipse, since mid-August 2007.

..... volume has also been up over the past 10 days, as well.

So looking good, so far.

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## Whiskers (25 October 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hi Whiskers,
> Hopefully Trader Pauls crystal ball comes good and 3.75c will be a bargain on Monday




Yeah Uncle Festivus, I noticed the 'coincidence'. 

Heh Trader Paul, whats the make and model of that crystal ball you have?


----------



## Trader Paul (25 October 2007)

Whiskers said:


> Yeah Uncle Festivus, I noticed the 'coincidence'.
> 
> Heh Trader Paul, whats the make and model of that crystal ball you have?






... made by God Hisself, this model is called SOLAR SYSTEM, Whiskers ... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Whiskers (26 October 2007)

I am still waiting to hear back from GCR re whether share issue is pro rata or up to $5,000 per shareholder.

Judgeing by the share price movement others are thinking the same thing. 

If the later as it seems, and all 2855 shareholders take up their full entitlement of 133,333 shares the no of shares will rise from 540.5m to 921.165m and not considering any extra value for the extra cash, based on the market cap prior announcement @ 4c/ share, the share value post issue looks more like 2.3c/ share.


----------



## dubiousinfo (26 October 2007)

Whiskers said:


> I am still waiting to hear back from GCR re whether share issue is pro rata or up to $5,000 per shareholder.
> 
> Judgeing by the share price movement others are thinking the same thing.
> 
> If the later as it seems, and all 2855 shareholders take up their full entitlement of 133,333 shares the no of shares will rise from 540.5m to 921.165m and not considering any extra value for the extra cash, based on the market cap prior announcement @ 4c/ share, the share value post issue looks more like 2.3c/ share.





The issue is up to $5,000 per shareholder. The chances of all holders taking up their full entitlment is virtually non existant. However, if that were to occur the company would raise $14mil and I imagine the board would be over the moon.

The more likely scenario is that around 50mil to 100mil shares will be issued raising around $2mil to $4mil which will be going into the planned drilling program.

Not currently holding but on my watchlist.


----------



## Whiskers (26 October 2007)

dubiousinfo said:


> The issue is up to $5,000 per shareholder.




Yeah got that now dubiousinfo



> The chances of all holders taking up their full entitlment is virtually non existant. However, if that were to occur the company would raise $14mil and I imagine the board would be over the moon.
> 
> The more likely scenario is that around 50mil to 100mil shares will be issued raising around $2mil to $4mil which will be going into the planned drilling program.




Agree not likely to get 100% subscription, but it's a broad range from nothing to $14m. 

The Cullerin JV with TRO drill results and labrador soil tests are due soon. I thought they would have waited until then and a better share price, since they are not desperate for cash.


----------



## Whiskers (31 October 2007)

Assay results are in for the cullerin JV with TRO. GCR has not made an announcement yet, but the following is extracted from the TRO quarterly report.

TRO says the results from this initial shallow reconnaissance programme significantly extended the identified near surface mineralisation which will be further evaluated by deeper drilling in the near term. 

Several holes ended in mineralisation.

The assays are four meter composites. The one meter splits are still awaited.



> *3. EXPLORATION*
> The short term objective of the regional exploration programme remains to test targets that through success will potentially create significant value for the benefit of shareholders rather than incrementally add to existing resources.
> 
> *3.1 Woodlawn Regional*
> ...


----------



## Whiskers (7 November 2007)

GCR drilling program on their fully owned NSW prospects at Canbelego underway. Substantial new tenement applications adjoining too. (ASX Announcement 7th November 07.)




> *Major Drilling Program Commenced at Canbelego near Cobar*
> 
> A major drilling program has commenced to test three of GCR’s 100%-owned properties in the Cobar district of western NSW. The initial program is for 4,700m, with 16 holes for 2,500m planned at Canbelego, 1,750m within the extensive Rast properties south of Nymagee, and a 450m hole to test a unique magnetic anomaly at Kilparney.
> 
> ...


----------



## Uncle Festivus (12 November 2007)

Announcement out today - 

Assay results for soil samples collected at the Power prospect at GCR’s 100%-owned Copper Hill porphyry copper-gold project near Molong, NSW, have been collated and interpreted. 

GCR’s Managing Director, Kim Stanton-Cook, said today: 
“The Power prospect, with semi-coincident geochemical and IP anomalies, has clear potential to host high grade mineralisation.  The Power prospect lies outside the low grade Copper Hill Intrusive Complex and may represent a new style of copper-gold mineralisation similar to that at Newcrest’s Ridgeway deposit.  
Success at the Power prospect would add substantially to the resource base at Copper Hill.”


----------



## Whiskers (20 November 2007)

Is anyone taking up the Share Purchase Plan, or can you see better opportunities elsewhere in the short term as I am considering?


----------



## Whiskers (27 November 2007)

Announcement by Calibre Mining the Canadian owner of Cybele Resources (Australia) that it has started it's phase two drilling program of 2,000m expected to be completed by end of year.

Some more reconnaissance rock chip assays also out soon.



> The first hole was collared on 20 November 2007. A second drilling rig will arrive at the
> property during November to accelerate the drilling and ensure completion of the
> program during 2007. See Figure 1 for map of drill hole locations.
> Calibre Mining is also in the process of completing property-wide 1:10,000 scale
> ...


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 November 2007)

This is like watching paint dry! Testing my patience now, but then....




> Recoverable metal production from Copper Hill, at current copper and gold prices, is estimated to be worth $US1.9 billion, using a mining case study of 8 million tonnes per year which, at an estimated 85% copper recovery and a 60% gold recovery, would produce 240,000 tonnes of copper and over 400,000 ounces of gold; at 27 November 2007 prices of US$6,600 per tonne of copper and US$820 per ounce of gold, the total value is US$1.9 billion.​


----------



## refined silver (5 December 2007)

Whiskers: yes bought some in the SPP but then sold some of my original holding.

Agree a most frustrating stock - had it for 3 yrs and done nothing. Yet with the resources they have, good cash, good tenements, lots JV/royaltied out, with lots of drilling going on, at some stage they have to pop like popcorn. 

When gold gets into its next leg up, hopefully that will remove viability questions over their main project and then there should be a significant re-rating of the price.


----------



## Trader Paul (5 December 2007)

Hi folks,

GCR ... expecting 3 positive cycles next week, 
which should see a bounce off the lows, that we 
should see over the next few days (low .03s???):

   12122007 ... positive spotlight on GCR ... 

   14122007 ... positive news expected here

21-24122007 ... negative cycle ... finance-related???

Expecting early-January 2008 to be mostly negative, 
then some positive news expected, around 22012008.

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Whiskers (12 December 2007)

A couple of good potential assays reported below today. Early days yet, but 2m @ 19.1 g/t has got to be worth a closer investigation.



> *Originally Posted by Trader Paul: *
> 12122007 ... positive spotlight on GCR ...




Spot on Trader Paul.



> *Originally Posted by refined silver: *
> Whiskers: yes bought some in the SPP but then sold some of my original holding.




I refrained... looks like I should still be able to get some at .037 or less in market.



> *West Wyalong Drilling Intersects New Gold Occurrence*
> Exploratory drilling in a wheatfield seven kilometres southeast of West Wyalong township
> has intersected what may be a previously unmapped gold reef.
> 
> ...


----------



## Whiskers (11 January 2008)

Don't like the look of this chart. 

Wedge corresponding roughly with two year decline in price looks like coming to a head soon. My first thought was surely it has to break out upwards... then I had a look at the money flow. 

Geees if they don't post some substantial news soon, this might be trading in tenths of cents before two much longer. 

I hope you're right Trader Paul.



Trader Paul said:


> Expecting early-January 2008 to be mostly negative,
> then some positive news expected, around 22012008.
> 
> have a great day
> ...


----------



## Whiskers (20 February 2008)

GCR's kempfield silver offshoot, Argent Minerals Limited prospectos closes 7th March 08.

http://www.argentminerals.com.au/


----------



## Uncle Festivus (21 February 2008)

We can only hope Argent is as successful as GCR has been - doh!!! . 
Loosing patients with this mob .


----------



## Bushman (27 February 2008)

Any thoughts on the rock phosphate potential of GCR. 

Per Dec 07 ann, they have entered into a 20% farm-out arrangement with Legend Int over the following Mt Isa holdings - 
EPM 14905 'Quita Creek' 
EPM 14906 'Highlands Plain'
EPM 14912 'Lily & Sherrin Crk'. 
EPM's are prospective for phosphate and uranium. Resource tagret is 200mt phopshate rock at grades from 13.4% to 18.7% P2O5. Economics of the project is 'enhanced' by the presence of acid producing facilties and excellent rail/road infrastructure linking Mt Isa and Townsville. 

Why did they 'farm-out' 80% of the project to Legend Int? 

Anyway at 3.1 c, the mkt cap is below $20m. Could be a good earner once Legend ann their intention to start drilling the Mt Isa properties a la MAK. Interested in peoples thoughts on this. 

Note also have gold and base metal prospects.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 February 2008)

Bushman said:


> Anyway at 3.1 c, the mkt cap is below $20m. Could be a good earner once Legend ann their intention to start drilling the Mt Isa properties a la MAK. Interested in peoples thoughts on this.
> 
> Note also have gold and base metal prospects.





Hi Bushman,
I really have to wonder what it will take to get this one on fire! With all the fingers in the pies, at least 2 have real potential, yet it still languishes @ 3c. We need a decision or at least a commitment to start mining _something_ I think  .


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

Hey guys,

Just a quick post

Keep an eye on GCR I have bought a few shares over the last few days from around the low to mid 3's and was hoping to buy more but it seems to be getting away now so beofre it does a heads up for all ASF'ers

Its current mkt cap is like $20m

The company appears well funded and has about 10 projects on the go, most of which it is free carried through,

The 2 that interest me the most are Copper Hill where the *NPV is like $650m = $1 a share* although huge funding issues so maybe *10% = 10c*

The other is the Mt Isa 500Mt@15% Phosphate project, GCR have farmed out 80% to Legend International who appear to be a major player www.lgdi.net

I have a *rough value on this at $40m = 6c+ a share*


More research to follow soon

also see www.goldencross.com.au


----------



## Gekko (29 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Just a quick post
> 
> ...






Looks interesting YT. One brief question. How did you get those figures for the projects in terms of EV.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

Well for Coppr Hill back in March last year the company released some scoping results

It showed a potential NPV of $900m using lower spot prices, using current spot prices the projects economics would no doubt be greatly improved,

An important thing was that the $300m CAP EX was no taken into consideration so this has to be taken away from the NPV

Now the reason I prefer to use 10% is that given the CAP EX requirement (which is large) it muct be discounted accordingly,

*Still even attributing only 10% I get 9,5c or almost 10c value to GCR*


----------



## Gekko (29 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well for Coppr Hill back in March last year the company released some scoping results
> 
> It showed a potential NPV of $900m using lower spot prices, using current spot prices the projects economics would no doubt be greatly improved,
> 
> ...







Yep I get how you got Copper Hill figures but its 9.5c using 1/10th value not 10c right (just being accurate I guess)

Also how about Mt Isa 6.3c value??????


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

Qld Govt Historic *JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate*

GCR's JV partner is Legend International a major Phosphate player in Aust, see http://www.lgdi.net/

Now Legend has all up around NET *1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate *(1.5Bt's but not all are 100%)

NOW *Legends current mkt cap is $500m AUD* see http://www.otcbb.com/asp/Info_Center.asp LGDI (including unlisted options and AUD/US conversion)

*$500m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 40c per tonne ore @15% Phospahte*

GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

*@ 40c/t = $40m 6.3c GCR*


----------



## Gekko (29 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Qld Govt Historic *JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate*
> 
> GCR's JV partner is Legend International a major Phosphate player in Aust, see http://www.lgdi.net/
> 
> ...






Thanks for the reply. I'll continue to look into the company tonight but it looks very interesting on first impressions. As we all know, its certainly in the right sector. And that means a lot.
One question. Did they farm out a little too much?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

lol this is becoming a little bt like ping pong with your questions 

Re did they farm out too much? Whose to say, I think it admirable that the company realised it is not a Phosphate player and thus farmed the project out to Legend, an actual Phosphate player, I would have prefered if they say kept 305 or 40% but then again perhaps 80% was what it took to get Legend on board, who knows,

One things for sure, GCR reminds me alot like CUL, see CUL was a small explorer with many mnay projects that provided alot of promise and potential, however it was its 30% carried interest in its Iron Ore project with AQA that made me really bullish as AQA were cleary going to develop their Pilbara Iron Ore area into a huge Fe porject,

Similarly I can see Legend following in the footsteps of Incitec and developing thier Potash projects which will take GCR along for the ride,

Whatever the case I have shown why I believe on aan EV basis given Legends current Mkt Cap *GCR's interest at Mt Isa should be worth 6c ish alone*

*add to that the 10% of the NPV at Copper Hill and you get another 10c =*

*So the total EV I get from Copper Hill and Mt Isa alone is 16c*


Now the company has like  4-6 other projects JV'd out to ZFX, TRO, CVRD/INCO and a few others, as well as this the company also has about 3-4 exploration projects in NSW around Broken Hill and in Qld and it doesn't stop their the Company has also 100% of the Uranium rights in its Qld Mt Isa assets (which is where Summit has dicovered huge amounts of Uranium), the Company has also acquired more Uranium projects in Canada and Copper/Gold projects in South America

With about $4.5m in cash and $2m + in listed shares and cash royalties to come the company is well funded 

I don't know about you but theres an awful lot of value in this company

*EVEN a 50% EV value for Mt Isa ie 3c + 5% NPV value for Copper Hill STILL = 8C*


----------



## Whiskers (29 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> With about $4.5m in cash and $2m + in listed shares and cash royalties to come the company is well funded
> 
> I don't know about you but theres an awful lot of value in this company
> 
> *EVEN a 50% EV value for Mt Isa ie 3c + 5% NPV value for Copper Hill STILL = 8C*




Good to see you on board YT.

Maybe you have brought along the midas touch that this one needs to realise it's value.


----------



## smurfette (29 April 2008)

Hi YT,

Interesting read. Can't believe those values! Would you say 8c as a price target or 16c. I know a lot depends on what the market will do. Some believe the subprime has more to go and more Opes Collapses will occur. I'm undecided on this and think the market may have pulled through the worst.

I must admit it is a shame they have given 80% of their Phosphate away

Smurfette


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

Smurfette you answered the question yourself,

The mkt will value this as they see fit, all I can say is like IRC and ACS of late I can see alot of fundamental value in this stock and thus believe in my opinion it is fundamentally undervalued

I have already stated I believe *attributing 5%-10% of Copper Hill NPV is prudent = 5c - 10c*

And *an extrapolated EV for Mt Isa = 6c*

So being ultra conservative I'd say at 6c your only paying for Mt Isa EV below well your not even paying that

If you add whatever % of the NPV you think Copper Hill deserves ie 10% 5% 2% 1% (roughly each 1% = 1c) to the 6c from Mt Isa EV you start to come up with a target price

Keep in mind the company has about 10 other projects which I would say add another 2c - 4c on their own

I see so much value no matter which way you slice it, what the mkt does is up to it, sooner or later value is either reflected or destroyed, we shall see


----------



## Gekko (30 April 2008)

Hey Smurfete I thought that too re giving away 80% but I considered what YT said and agree, 20% of a profitable mining operation is better than 100% of a valuable deposit lying in the ground. Depends on how you look at it really. That had to give to get (to get Legend on board with them)


----------



## Uncle Festivus (30 April 2008)

Whiskers said:


> Good to see you on board YT.
> 
> Maybe you have brought along the midas touch that this one needs to realise it's value.



Hey Whiskers, just shows how much influence we have here . YT comes on board and way it goes . Interesting study on market sentiment and timing.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 April 2008)

Hey Uncle and Whiskers,

Yeah I can't believe this has been flying under the radar

On its Phosphate potential or Enterprise Value alone its undervalued

with all the interest of late in Agri stocks I can't believe a company with a resource of *500Mt's@15%Phosphate* 20% carried by a large player being Legend can sit at such a low level

So now that I have somewhat explored Copper Hill and Mt Isa Phosphate I'll dig up a bit on their other projects


----------



## smurfette (30 April 2008)

Hey guys,

I can see what you mean. I mean 20% of profit is probably better than 100% of nothing, but then if we did the whole "if but and maybe" whose to say GCR couldn't have developed the mine themselves? 

I was hoping to get some cheapies this morning so it looks like i haven't learned my lesson from IRC. Sitting with a sore bum from being so tight

Smurfette


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 April 2008)

I suppose the next interesting project to talk about is one of GCR's Aussie Qld projects *BOWEN*

GCR appears to be targeting Gold and Silver here

_Bowen (Qld, 900 sq km, GCR 100%, gold & silver)
Sampling and mapping is underway, and an office has been set up in Bowen. Exploration work is targeting porphyry-related *bulk tonnage gold deposits and epithermal gold-silver deposits, with potential for a Silver Hill-style high-grade gold-silver discovery*. *Conquest Mining’s Silver Hill resource at nearby Mount Carlton is reported to contain 1.3 million ounces of gold, 45 million ounces of silver and 66,700 tonnes of copper.*
GCR will follow up all prospects at Bowen, including:
• previous drilling by WMC on the Mt Cavana tenement, which *returned
8m at 3.2 g/t gold, including 1m at 15.4 g/t gold*; and 4
• a zone of highly altered, silicified, brecciated and gossanous rocks within a porphyry-style environment at Matrimony Ridge, located within the Mt Mackenzie tenement, where *rock chips returned assays of 6.3 to 16.8 g/t gold and 105 g/t silver* over a 100m long zone at the brecciated contact with a dacite dyke._

I know the discovery and increased JORC by CQT at Mt Carlton caused quite a stirr last year, I suppose this makes GCR's exploration here look very interesting especially since the company itself has said the Geology it has at its projects is similar to Mt Carlton


----------



## Gekko (30 April 2008)

Hey YT I remember that CQT thing last year I think the speculator was the one who was hearalding it as a major find didn't seem that impressive to me to be honest I mean it was a great deposit but I didn't really see it as bing the next Olympic Dam or whatever

Anyway thats CQT, at least for GCR its another positive do they have an idea of a target size there or anything?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 April 2008)

Gekko all I know is what they have said in the qtrly (I inserted the extract) and in that image, I don't think they have any target sizes other than to emphasize the geological similarities to CQT's Mt Carlton Copper/Gold/Silver deposit

Another interesting project is their Mt Isa Uranium as this is where Summit SMM has firmed up 60-70M lb's of Uranium and has attracted the attention of Areva and PDN, it is an elephant area for Uranium and GCR retains 100% of the Uranium rights here 

This is also where the Phosphate is and thus there is ample infrastrucutre and also an exisitng Phosphate mine (not sure whether its operational or historic)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 April 2008)

Well looks like there was a bit of interest in the stock today

Still lookiing cheap to me on EV basis,

For interest sake I crunched the I.G.V.'s and I was blown away as they say a stock should usually trade at 10% of I.G.V. I prefer to use 1% to be conservative

*Mt Isa*
Mt Isa PHOSPHATE:
500Mt's@0.15%P = 75Mt's of Phosphate

The current spot price for Phosphate is $350-$400 US/t = say $400 AUD roughly

So I.G.V. Mt Isa = 75Mt's x $400/t (current Phosphate Price) = *$30BILLION* now even though *GCR 20% they have a net attributable amount of $6Billion*


*Copper Hill*
Copper HIll contains 1.2Moz's Gold  420kt's Copper
using current spot prices ($1000 AUD gold and $4.40 Copper)

*I.G.V. Copper Hill = $5Billion*


*And yet the mkt cap is still $25m* 

*1% of I.G.V. ($11Billion) = $110m = 17c+ GCR* but thats just my thoughts


----------



## Gekko (30 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well looks like there was a bit of interest in the stock today
> 
> Still lookiing cheap to me on EV basis,
> 
> ...






$25mn capitalisation on $11bn of projects of which $6bn are mt isa phosphate is good enough for me. I bought a bunch at 0.042 during the afternoon and will add. The current value attributed doesnt come close to justifying the phosphate that they have in Mt Isa. GCR compare awfully favourably to rwd, mak and any other. Copper Hill looks promising, but its the phosphate that gets my attention. 

4.2cents to...(17cent ?) is good enough for me.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

Hi guys some interesting Agri info from the RWD thread


Courtesy: The New York Times

The Food Chain: Fertilizer Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/bu...hp&oref=slogin

Video @...

http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_stor...eef7bf21aafa0c

Worldwide Fertilizer Consumption Demand is on the increase...see the attached file for a World schematic.

A few people have been discussing the consequences of a reduction in arable land. The NY Times article points to increased desire for efficiency to generate higher yields, a direct result from increasing fertilizer use across developing economies.


----------



## Gekko (1 May 2008)

Hey YT picked up a few more of these gooies this AM 
interesting read all this food shortage stuff well I should say scary as the what ifs of not enough food are well scary to say the least.

So 17c here we come hey? Once the market is more aware of the company, it will push through easily.


----------



## Whiskers (1 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Worldwide Fertilizer Consumption Demand is on the increase...




Yeah, I've had an interest in the horticulture industry for a long time and don't I know it. 

Phosphate especially, but also the cane farmers are complaining about the rising cost of urea.

PS: I wonder if shareholders will get a discount off the fertiliser ... like some companies provide for shareholders who deal with them, and sugar mills used to give for bags of raw sugar years ago.


----------



## Fed23 (1 May 2008)

currently down 11.9%

I think its time to enter this stock.

Hope that once I enter it doesnt drop more like STB


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

Hey Whiskers Horticulture hey? Sounds like you might have the inside gossip for us on the Agri sector 

Well someone out there was nervous about the mkts or something because a whole heap of GCR were just dumped, I can't get over how cheap this stock is, it baffles the mind

Gekko the 17c was a figure based on 1% of the I.G.V. of the deposits, its not really my prefered target setting tool

For GCR I'd say the best bet is to use the *Extrapolated EV for Mt Isa which is 6.3c ish*

Then add whatever % of the NPV for Copper Hill you like, basicially *the NPV = $1 GCR* however there are considerable development risks and thus this NPV must in my opinion be heavily discounted so basically you should look at the Copper Hill deposit and determine what % probability you would give to the company achieving its NPV

What really baffles me is MNM today announce that its reviewing its licences near MAK and its SP bolts up 60% having risen probably 300% (ie from 10c) over the past few weeks, GCR on the other hand has 500Mt's of Phosphate bearing Ore and is in a JV with Legend and yet is so cheap


----------



## Whiskers (1 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well someone out there was nervous about the mkts or something because a whole heap of GCR were just dumped,




Probably some bottom scavenger that picked them up in the low 2 cents the other day. 

Geeses, why wasn't that me.


----------



## Gekko (1 May 2008)

Whiskers said:


> Probably some bottom scavenger that picked them up in the low 2 cents the other day.
> 
> Geeses, why wasn't that me.






Wiskers, i see this as more of an IRC. YT posted on IRC and i bought later then i would as i was initially hesitent, but i did buy because of the massive resource and low capitalisation that is has. I bought mid 30's and am up almost 50% already in under 3 weeks. I cant complain. I really cant. I think STB need to resolve their cash position. They are low on $$$. GCR in fact reminds me of IRC in the fact that it too has a massive resource. This time phosphate, not vanadium. I have bought more today anyway and am happy to buy more.


----------



## Fed23 (1 May 2008)

dam dam dam.. my order of  BUY 66,654 GCR at 3.7 didnt go through.

Now its back to 4.1.. I missed this one


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

Fed perhaps a bit of patience mate, you may yet get it

It now looks like my other spec Agri play STB is getting in on the action

Strange really that all the other Agri plays are performing so well yet GCR is somewhat forgoten,

In terms of ASX listed Agri players with deposits theres only IPL MAK and RWD
*
IPL's mkt cap is $8Billion

MAK's mkt cap is $275m

RWD's mkt cap is $130m

GCR's mkt cap is $25m*

I'd say GCR is the 4th most advanced agri player on the ASX given its got a deposit and a JV with a major player, the mkt cap doesn't reflect it though


----------



## smurfette (1 May 2008)

Hey guys,

I got my shares at 3.9c earlier today so I'm aboard the train so to speak. 

YT thanks for all the research and info you have given us. I know I speak for a lot of posters when I say that we appreciate the time and effort you take to share your research with us.

Smurfette


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

Hey Smurffete thanks and good to have you aboard 

Interesting to see GCR's Phosphate JV partner Legend trading up higher in the US http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php , although the US page quotes the Mkt Cap at $450m US it does not take into account the options listed and unlisted so the Mkt Cap is actualy closer to $500m US = *$550m AUD*

This would mena that the *6.3c extrapolated EV is now probably 7c* or something

Sooner or latter the mkt will have to wake up to the potential of GCR if for nothing else its Phosphate 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Qld Govt Historic *JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate*
> 
> GCR's JV partner is Legend International a major Phosphate player in Aust, see http://www.lgdi.net/
> 
> ...


----------



## Gekko (1 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Smurffete thanks and good to have you aboard
> 
> Interesting to see GCR's Phosphate JV partner Legend trading up higher in the US http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php , although the US page quotes the Mkt Cap at $450m US it does not take into account the options listed and unlisted so the Mkt Cap is actualy closer to $500m US = *$550m AUD*
> 
> ...







Hey YT just curious why are you discounting Copper Hills NPV so much? 

You say only apply 5% or so, I believe in caution but isn't that too much? I know that allocating 100% is also silly but I would have thought that maybe 20% ie 1 in 5 was more reasonable?


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## roland (1 May 2008)

I'm on board at 38, took out the whole parcel on offer around midday - hoping to push it up a little .... seems to have worked (at least I can think to myself it did)


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

Gekko,

You have to take everything into consideration

Yes the *NPV would be $650m *

HOWEVER the *CAP EX is $350m* this is a significant amount of money for a tiny company like GCR to come up with especially considering its about *14x the size of their current mkt cap*

In my opinion for this project to move forward a major with deep pockets is needed

Given the level of JV's and farm outs GCR has done I would I assume that this is the logical move they are hoping to take keeping say a 20% carried interest or even 10% who knows

The point is until the funding issue is resolved by GCR getting the backing of a major the NPV at Copper Hill must be heavily discounted to reflect the risk as I said every 1% probability you attribute to the chance of success at Copper Hill = 1c in NPV value


----------



## Gekko (1 May 2008)

Ok I get it but I think it depends as you say  on how confident you are on the project making profits to return as dividends to us 

I probably am a little bit more optimistic than you with it but given your knowledge perhaps I should err on the side of caution and allocate say 5% like you

But if I get this right you say based on Legend Mt Isa should be worth at least 6cents to 7cents 

So at 4c GCR is trading at over a 50% discount to what Mt Isa should be worth and no value/ 0% is attibuted to Copper HIll   or any of the other projects


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## countryboy (1 May 2008)

legend collects 80% of the phosphate from the farm in the way i read it. im sure there are lots of examples of stocks with minority interests going to the roof but usually they are forgotten or dont get anywhere near the same ride as the main player

i wonder if GCR can claw back any of the interest they sold out for a song.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

countryboy said:


> legend collects 80% of the phosphate from the farm in the way i read it. im sure there are lots of examples of stocks with minority interests going to the roof but usually they are forgotten or dont get anywhere near the same ride as the main player
> 
> i wonder if GCR can claw back any of the interest they sold out for a song.




I disagree country boy, I actually see it as a way for the juniors to fast track a project towards production, the deep pockets and expertise but mainly deep pockets a major can bring allows the juniour to sit back  and really ride on the coatails of the Big Brother

think CUL/RHI were it not for AQA I highly doubt whether that region of Iron Ore would be so advanced AQA is making the project work and thus CUL has gone from 4c - 15c+

Alot of the time juniors are unable to make a project work in time, take for example RMI, they had so much promise and owned 100% of their huge Nickel Laterite deposit and I think 100% of their Iron Ore play, I ask you what has the company done to date? SFA and their SP has gone from 5c - 15c back to 3c, I'm sure if they had a major on board this would not have happened

So as I said early I am glad GCR realised they aren't Phosphate players and thus farmed out the project to a serious group who can actually develop it, Legend aim to be in production by the end of 2009 thats less than 2 years away, can you imagine the profit potential from this multi Billion $ deposit????

I firmly believe 20% of some profits is better than 100% of none and based on CUL vs RMI performance I prefer Juniours who are carried by Big Brothers (especially since sometimes the big brothers buy shares on mkt in the juniour ie GIR HLX CUL) sure they give up a % but at least stuff happens and they don't end up like the RMI's of the junior exploration world


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

Guys this is now getting ridiculous

*Overnight Legend has risen strongly to $3.10 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $620m US = $680m AUD*


So Legend has a mkt cap of $680m with NET *1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate *(1.5Bt's but not all are 100%)

*$680m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 52c per tonne ore @15% Phospahte*


GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

*@ 52c/t = $52m 8.2c GCR*


*So right now GCR is trading at half the EV given to Legend for its share at Mt Isa and $0 value for any other assets ie Copper Hill, Panama, Canadian Uranium, the 6+ JV's in NSW, the other Aussie porjects ALL FREE  * 

Am I the only one who thinks this is ridiculously cheap 






YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Qld Govt Historic *JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate*
> 
> GCR's JV partner is Legend International a major Phosphate player in Aust, see http://www.lgdi.net/
> 
> ...






YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Smurffete thanks and good to have you aboard
> 
> Interesting to see GCR's Phosphate JV partner Legend trading up higher in the US http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php , although the US page quotes the Mkt Cap at $450m US it does not take into account the options listed and unlisted so the Mkt Cap is actualy closer to $500m US = *$550m AUD*
> 
> ...


----------



## goldmandane (2 May 2008)

Mate,

the copper hill property is a dud! Very unlikely they will get a developer on board, not economically feasible, it's too risky to think Au a and Cu will remain at an economically vialbe price for this


And Im not sure about mt ISA it seems like its way off before they actually begin any sort of production??


FIRST POST EVER HERE!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

Hi goldman,

If thats how you view Copper HIll then give it a 0% value thats exactly what the mkt is doing, however I feel that even though the grades are bugger low the very low waste to strip ratio 0.6:1 from memory and the proximity to exisitng infrastructure make it an interesting proposition nevertheless

As for Mt Isa, the US Insto's and brokers disagree with you as they are valuing Legend at alot higher levels than what you think Mt Isa is worth, take a look at Legend why does it carry a mkt cap of $680m? ? ? 

My point is at current levels GCR is trading at half the EV given to its Big Brother for Mt Isa and no value for any of its other projects of which it has alot, the situation reminds me so much of CUL its not funny 

any for your information LEGEND aims to be in production by the end of 2009 http://www.lgdi.net/


P.S. How close to production are the other memembers of the Poo Brigade? ie MAK? MNM? STB? RWD?


----------



## goldmandane (2 May 2008)

What other projects has Legend got on though may I ask?


Also, what in your opinion is the pick of the poo brigade (love that name)!!!


----------



## Whiskers (2 May 2008)

I reckon it's certainly cheap alright YT. Also, after allowing for estimated current qtr outlays, ($1.4m) just their estimated CASH at end of June ($3.2m) is worth 1/2 cent per share.

GCR has added a lot of very valuable strings to it's bow in the last year. 

Just looking at the news desk, they have a lot going on at the moment with a lot of surveys and drilling getting underway.  

Probably the next news in soon will be these grass root assay results as reported abt 21 April.



> Broken Hill (western NSW, 393 sq km, GCR 100%, platinum group metals, gold and base metals)
> Vale Inco Limited remains active in its joint venture over the southern part of the licence having completed over 3,000m of RAB and aircore drilling for which assays are awaited. Vale Inco also completed an airborne magnetic and radiometric survey.






goldmandane said:


> Mate,
> 
> the copper hill property is a dud! Very unlikely they will get a developer on board, not economically feasible, it's too risky to think Au a and Cu will remain at an economically vialbe price for this




Copper Hill a dud. That's a bit rich ain't it mate. I'm in the business of searching for companies with unrealised potential.

There's a lot of copper and gold in them there hills with a low strip ratio and close to infrastructure. The economics are viable. All it needs is a bit more dough that GCR can resource atm to develop it.

So you have to remember they are still drilling there and if they hit some higher grade to add to the project, it could turn into a major project in a flash. That is still quite good potential for me.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

Hey Goldmandane,

The reason I provided the Legend web page link is so that you could go on it for yourself and browse and see, then you would realise Legend have no other real projects, their focus is the Phospahte, thus the bulk if not all of their mkt cap is attributable to the Phospahte project they have to which GCR has a a partial interest which I hve now repeatedly extrapolated an EV for to show *currently it should be worth 8c+ to GCR*

You ask me my favourite in the Poo brigade?

Well thats a hard question, its out of MAK RWD and GCR since for now they are the only cheapies with actual resources, I think if you look at the charts and mkt caps of MAK and RWD you will see they have put on some really good gains (MAK especially) so I ask how much further can they run?

Based on this and the fact that GCR is trading at half its EV for Mt Isa alone I'd have to say that GCR is my favourite of the poo brigade by far

Please check the Legend Website http://www.lgdi.net/
and this presentation http://www.lgdi.net/pdf/Legend_Phosphate_April_2008v2.pdf

Also take the time to look at ths images I have attached as they will show GCR's deposits in the context of Legends greater projects


----------



## goldmandane (2 May 2008)

Playing a bit of devils advocate here which is healthy.

Anyway, which exchange is legend listed on? I cant seem to find out off their website.


Just realised its on the OTC's.

To me thats a bollocks market, would never trust its valuations.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

Hey Goldman,

Thats your opinion to which you are entitled, I trust my opinion however since nearly everytime that I have spotted a really undervalued stock they have been re-rated and my faith has been vindicated, sure sometimes they drop back buts thats due to a combination of poor mkt conditions combined with poor results/ and/or poor management

Unless GCR sell the balance 20% Phosphate interest for under say $10m then there is little that can be done to destroy the undeniable upside value Mt Isa contains for this little miner


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## goldmandane (2 May 2008)

Young trader, 

I respect your opinion too, infact I really like reading your analysis, as it has value to it.

I just want to put point forward, instead of only looking at the upside. 

I actually work at Goldmans myself, and we just aren't into speccys here, so i guess its ingrained in me a bit to look at the high risks. But I'm trying to get into adding some to my portfolio now, so really looking around at the poo brigade haha


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

lol Dane so thats what the "Goldman" means and here I was thinking it had more to do with Autin Powers Goldmember,

I just think at current levels GCR is cheap, sure there's lots of risk but I'd say thats factored into the SP at current levels,

All valuations aside, I'm sure given the current Agri Euphoria if GCR released an Ann re its Phosphate project the stock would move up very strong on high volume as all the trading agri punters jumped in on it, its happened with MNM and STB both of which only have dirt with some possible agri in it, ie no actual deposit, also I'm sure sooner or later those who've made a killing on the 2 leaders of the poo brigade (ie MAK and RWD) will look for the next "Agri player" I don't know of anyother dirt cheap agri stocks with deposits than GCR, if there are others out there please PM me so I can research them

p.s. why are you so sceptical of the OTC Mkt, is it b/c its easy to maniupulate or something? I thought it was the US equiv of say London AIM


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

I just realised I have been rather sloppy in the way in which I have presented information on GCR, I'll try and group everything together over the weekend but for now will group together the info I have on the 2 mian projects being Copper Hill and Mt Isa




*
Projects**
Copper Hill**  Copper + Gold, 100%, NSW*

*JORC 133Mt's@0.31%Cu + 0.28g/t Au = 1g/t + Au Equiv*

Now although the deposit is low grade its gold equiv grade is not too bad ie 1g/t Au, but the main Pros and Cons are as follows 

http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html

*Pros*
- Exisiting infrastructure, rail, town, workforce, equipment etc etc
- Very low waste to ore ratio *0.6:1* this reduces the cost of hauling dirt, for example an operation grading say double Copper Hill but had a waste to Ore ratio of say 2:1 would be less economical as alot more dirt is required to be moved etc etc SO THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR
- Copper Hill copper concentrates contain no deleterious elements and may attract a price premium. (further metallurgical test work is required)
- Current NPV indicates a very very large return
- Located in Australia = very safe and mining friendly nation to operate it albeit with Environmental green tape 

*Cons*
- Huge Cap Ex = requires the backing of a major partner via either direct farm out or perhaps even offtake with commodity groups etc
- Low grade ore = high cost production (partially offset by low waster ratio) but = requires premium base metals prices to be profitable



*NPV*
Also here you will find the companies NPV calcs http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html

It is clearly shown that even using a *$600 AUD Gold price vs Current $950+ * and a *$2.65 AUD Copper price vs current $4.20+* an 8Mt p.a. operation will *generate an NPV of $270m* ($600m - $330m) 

*Now even if GCR farmed out 80% of this project to be free carried, that would still = a Net Attributable NPV of $54m = 8.5c*


*IGV for interests sake*
Copper Hill contains 1.2Moz's Gold 420kt's Copper
using current spot prices ($1000 AUD gold and $4.40 Copper)

I.G.V. Copper Hill = $5Billion


I'm not saying hey Copper Hill is worth Millions I'm just saying given the balance of the pros and cons I think you can just cross of Copper Hill as adding value to GCR, but do agree to really take the project seriously the funding via a JV or Offtake needs to be established.

p.s. There is also the EXPLORATION POTENTIAL at Copper Hill, I'd say they are looking to find higher grade satelite ore bodies etc


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 May 2008)

Ok before I go any further I think its very important that anyone hoping to understand exactly what GCR's Phosphate potential is read this report 

http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/mount-isa/PDF/Phosphate-20071224.pdf

also more info can be found on the companies web page




*
Projects**
Mt Isa**  Phosphate, 20% Free Carried by Legend Corp, Qld near Mt Isa and near to Incitecs exisitng Phosphate mine*

*Qld Govt Historic JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate*

Now this is a historic resource and the only reason it deosn't meet the JORC standard is because it was defined prior to the existance of the JORC code, ie any deposits no matter how ell defined that were established prior to the JORC code don't meet it, but really its just a technicality

See for yoursefl on the Qld Govt Minerals Database
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/493685.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/491206.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494076.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494100.htm



GCR's JV partner is *Legend International* a major Phosphate player in Aust, for more info on Legend see http://www.lgdi.net/

Now Legend are working towards getting the whole project area towards production, they recently completed a scoping study  and have an updated presentation which shows cost etimates, margins, production scenarios and resulting profit scenarios as well as timelines etc well worth a look http://www.lgdi.net/pdf/Legend_Phosp...ril_2008v2.pdf


*Valuing Mt Isa*
*EV*
Now the task of putting a value on Mt Isa, my prefered method of valuation is to use an Enterprise Value or EV which simply gives a company a value per tonne of given resource 

Now because the Poo sector is light on companies the easiest and most obvious way to extract an EV is to determine the EV being attibuted to GCR's big brother Legend

Legend current shareprice = $3.10 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $620m US = $680m AUD

Legend has a NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.4Bt's but 100mt's is GCR's)

*$680m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 52c per tonne ore @15% Phosphate or $3 per tonne Phosphate

GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

@ 52c/t = $52m 8.2c GCR*

To keep an eye on Legends share price ann's and mkt cap see http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php but remember the Mkt Cap given doesn't take into account the 20m or so options and thus is 10% under what it should be



*A % OF IGV*
Another methood used (though I'm not sure how credible) is to use 10% of a deposits IGV as the value attributable to a company. I AM NOT A FAN OF THIS METHOD

Mt Isa PHOSPHATE:
500Mt's@0.15%P = 75Mt's of Phosphate

The current spot price for Phosphate is $350-$400 US/t = say $400 AUD roughly

So I.G.V. Mt Isa = 75Mt's x $400/t (current Phosphate Price) = $30BILLION now even though GCR 20% they have a net attributable amount of $6Billion

*10% IGV = $600m = 95c*


*Conclusions Mt Isa*
- Based on my prefered valuation the EV *GCR is worth 8c+ on Mt Isa alone*
-GCR is one of only 4 ASX listed companies with an actual Agricultural deposit
IPL's mkt cap is $8Billion
MAK's mkt cap is $275m 
RWD's mkt cap is $130m
GCR's mkt cap is $25m

- GCR's deposits are between 60kms-150kms from IPL's operating Phosphate Mine
- GCR's project is part of a bigger project for big brother Legend kinda like the CUL/AQA relationship, the big brother has the deep funding pockes and expertise needed to advance these projects to production allowing GCR to advance its many other projects


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## pattyp (2 May 2008)

You are speaking my language Young Trader...

Excellent & detailed change to your posting. If no-one else, you have at least convinced me to review this one in detail... 

I like seeing the numbers laid out in front of me 

Though corps under 10c make me *yak* every time they move against me 

Cheers.
Pat


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## refined silver (3 May 2008)

goldmandane said:


> Mate,
> 
> the copper hill property is a dud! Very unlikely they will get a developer on board, not economically feasible, it's too risky to think Au a and Cu will remain at an economically vialbe price for this
> 
> FIRST POST EVER HERE!




One of the daftest things I've read here, but you follow with more later!!!

I bought GCR solely for Copper Hill, as its assumptions on future gold prices were so low $450, (a bit higher now, but still way too low) that no wonder the project looked marginal. As I believe Au has a long way up to go yet, at some stage Copper Hill will be go from being thought of a nothing, to a superb project and will be re-rated quickly.

You also say you work for Goldman. They have an atrocious but understandable gold forecasting record for the last 8 years. They have continually been bearish on gold, always forecasting the future at lower prices than present, and been wrong every year as Au has gone up every year for the last 8. Goldman also are an agent for the Fed in shorting the gold market, and so its understandable why their forecasts are always bearish.

As for OTC being "bollocks markets" and trusting nothing from there. Would you suggest its better to trust bigger cos like Enron, Freddie and Fannie, Countrywide, Ambac, Bear Sterns, etc??

Maybe Goldman dismisses "speccies" becasue they are too small to get clients into or even get into themselves in a meangful way, but small caps have way outperformed large caps in general and are generally better value.

Read, *Sell Goliath, Buy David By Aaron Gentzler * for results of a very large study. Below is an excerpt.

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=6166



> According to a 17-year study conducted by investment firm, Tweedy, Browne, low-valuation small-cap stocks dramatically outperformed their large-cap counterparts between1963 through1980. "One million dollars invested in the smallest fifth of the companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, which were priced in the bottom fifth in terms of price/earnings ratios, would have increased to $19,500,000 over the 17-year study period," Tweedy, Browne concludes. "By comparison, $1,000,000 invested in the largest market capitalization stocks with the lowest price/earnings ratios would have increased to [only] $8,107,000 over the same period. During the period, the annual investment returns for the market capitalization weighted and equal weighted NYSE Indexes were 7.68% and 12.12%, respectively. One million dollars invested in the market capitalization weighted and equal weighted NYSE Indexes wou ld have increased to $3,518,000 and $6,992,000, respectively."
> 
> Overall, that's not too shabby a result for small cap stocks. But financial media coverage tends to ignore small-caps and focus primarily on large caps. That's too bad. Investors are missing out.
> 
> ...


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## Sean K (3 May 2008)

goldmandane said:


> Young trader,
> 
> I respect your opinion too, infact I really like reading your analysis, as it has value to it.
> 
> ...



LOL, now we have Goldman ´s going off YT ´s tips. he he.

Just joking goldmandane. 

If I may be so bold as to comment on YT ´s investment strategy, he probably wouldn ´t go near a Goldman recommendation with a 10 foot pole. It ´s all RR and at the microcap, before they are rerated, or even start mining. A long long long way from pe ´s and the like. That is the end of the market where you get multibaggers in short time, take the $$ and move on. Seems to work alright if you put in the research time like YT does. 

So, you may not like this stock because it ´s  ´risky ´but that is where the big money seems to be made IMO. It ´s obviously where big money can be lost too.


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## Uncle Festivus (3 May 2008)

kennas said:


> So, you may not like this stock because it ´s  ´risky ´but that is where the big money seems to be made IMO. It ´s obviously where big money can be lost too.




True, but @ 4c and now with some momentum behind them it's worth a penny punt . I have re loaded up, just need some timely announcements to bolster the enthusiasm & keep the thing on the boil (can't let those daytraders get bored eh ).

I also see China has severley restricted fertiliser exports too, and commensurate boost to global prices. Not good for food prices though.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 May 2008)

Hey Refined Silver,

Yeah I guess when looking at Copper Hill their just trying to be cautious
But I find it vry re-assuring that using *$600 AUD Gold price vs Current $950+ * and a *$2.65 AUD Copper price vs current $4.20+* an 8Mt p.a. operation will *generate an NPV of $270m* ($600m - $330m) 

It seems amazing given the precieved low grades but after doing a bit of reading I'm starting to realise that the *waste to ore ratio* is also a very important number to look at when examining open pit mines as it will determine how much dirt (and resulting cost) will be incurred to access the ore

As I have stated the Cap Ex is the big hurdle requiring the deep pockets of a  JV partner or Offtake agreements in place, 

Something interesting is that after considering Goldmans thoughts on Copper Hill I asked a perth based broker mate for his thoughts, whats interesting is that although he wasn't blown away at all by Copper Hill he reckons that GCR is apparantly in discussions or something for offtakes at Copper Hill THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED and I'm waiting for him to send me the links or article where he read this

If true this would be a real turning point for Copper Hill and GCR





YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *
> Projects**
> Copper Hill**  Copper + Gold, 100%, NSW*
> 
> ...


----------



## refined silver (3 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Refined Silver,
> 
> Yeah I guess when looking at Copper Hill their just trying to be cautious.




No, I appreciate your analysis, and bringing to light the fertiliser aspect which I have to admit I didn't know much about, I knew a lot more about the other lesser projects.

I've done similar analysis on pieces of paper at home before buying, but tend to present here in a much mroe abbreviated form, often not even spell checked. (For me its "typing checked" rather than "spell checked"!), let alone, set out nicely, highlighted, cloured etc. Well done, very easy to follow.

You've also done very well in laying out the value in IRC. Maybe I should send you a few more I have with v good value (IMO) and let you present them!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 May 2008)

Refined Silver and others thanks for the kind words, I enjoy doing it so its a pleasure really,

I'm still waiting to hear back from my friend re GCR in Offtake discussions for Copper Hill, has anyone else out there heard anything? As I said if this can be confirmed it would be a serious turning point for the company and the project as securing "Offtakes" can sort out the project funding issue

As soon as I hear anything I'll let you guys


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## goldmandane (3 May 2008)

guys,

Im the first to admit here, that investment banks with al there research is pretty much junk. Infact theres a great artile or book about a guy who worked for the big banks on wall street for like 30 years, and he said its all just bollocks, its only really good to use to collate information. I mean we have had so much on buys that has just gone to crap and theyve moed back down to hold. Eg, sundance was a buy at 35 cents, and it kept getting pummeled all the way down to like 15 and was changed to hold.

Ive come to the definate conclusion the best way to make decent short term gains, is with small caps that do not have much coverage in the media etc, that way value can be found, before the market realises. Infact Im looking at getting out of working where I do, and get more involved in the actual business stategy side, actually being a part of these companies and creating value, rather then just analysing them from a far. But hey, the money is good!

Anyway great analysis there YT, nice reading.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 May 2008)

Goldman what did you think of the stuff I put together on Copper Hill? (see below)

The low waste to ore ratio certainly improves the economics, obviously its still not gonna be the most profitable mine in the wrold, the low grades will no doubt place it in the higher cost curves globally making it more suceptible to base metal price weakness etc etc


Also can you check your grape vines to see if you've heard anything about this supposed offtake discussions?




YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *
> Projects**
> Copper Hill**  Copper + Gold, 100%, NSW*
> 
> ...


----------



## goldmandane (3 May 2008)

Sorry YT, no grape vine to speak of when it comes to small frys like this. I can check when Im next at work on our trading software which has all news articles and asx information regarding the company released on it, and see if there's anyhing there, but last time i checked i dont remember seeing anything.

And I really do like your analysis, because its really hard to value these start up explorers, and I like the way you are douing it.

Infact im going to be starting my own research website in the very very near future, focusing on very small caps (all totally independent of goldmans, just a bit of fun on the side, will be free, just really posting my own research I will be doing, but will present it in well put together reports), and Im thinking of initiating coverage of GCR and certainly will be using some of these ideas.

Can I ask how old are you and what's your background (work wise)?


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## Whiskers (3 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Refined Silver and others thanks for the kind words, I enjoy doing it so its a pleasure really,
> 
> I'm still waiting to hear back from my friend re GCR in Offtake discussions for Copper Hill, has anyone else out there heard anything? As I said if this can be confirmed it would be a serious turning point for the company and the project as securing "Offtakes" can sort out the project funding issue
> 
> As soon as I hear anything I'll let you guys




There is no doubt they are seriously looking at some sort of JV partner YT. This first came to my attention in August last year (post #73). 

I had a number of phone and email contacts with Kim, who confirmed that, as you say the CAPEX was beyound their means at the moment and they were showing some parties over the project. I haven't had contact for a few months, but I have no reason to believe they are not still open to or in discussions. 



Whiskers said:


> Well, finally some good news about Copper Hill.
> 
> GCR’s Managing Director, Kim Stanton-Cook, said today (ASX ann. inter-alia)
> 
> "The project has the capacity to deliver a steady stream of copper-in-concentrate for at least ten years at reasonable cost, so the big hurdle for GCR is the estimated capital cost. GCR will consider potential joint venturers requiring a steady supply of clean copper concentrate with gold credits and the financial capacity to fund the project through to start-up.”


----------



## Miner (4 May 2008)

goldmandane said:


> Infact im going to be starting my own research website in the very very near future, focusing on very small caps (all totally independent of goldmans, just a bit of fun on the side, will be free, just really posting my own research I will be doing, but will present it in well put together reports), and Im thinking of initiating coverage of GCR and certainly will be using some of these ideas.
> ?




Goldmandane - i accidentally got into this thread and astonished the amazing value you, YT, Refined Silver and others have put here.
Your candid note on Goldman sachs and  its crappy business is startling too.

How do we know about your website and appreciate if you please advise in this forum when you open it.

Regards


----------



## Gekko (4 May 2008)

Thats some of the best research ive seen on any forum YT. Thanks for making me regret not buying more You show the potential clealy. good work


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (4 May 2008)

Hey guys little bit hung over today but I have some very good news

On Friday GCR's big brother Legend has continued its very strong rally and on Friday closed at an all time high of *$3.90*

*Valuing Mt Isa*
*EV*

Legend current shareprice = $3.90 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $780m US = $860m AUD

Legend has a NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.4Bt's but 100mt's is GCR's)

*$860m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 66c per tonne ore @15% Phosphate 

GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

@ 66c/t = $66m 10.5c GCR*

To keep an eye on Legends share price ann's and mkt cap see http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php but remember the Mkt Cap given doesn't take into account the 20m or so options and thus is 10% under what it should be



*So GCR's Current Implied EV on Mt Isa alone is 10.5c* how long can it stay at 4c? 

later on I'm going to try and put everything together and come up with a reasonable price target based on everything 




YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Ok before I go any further I think its very important that anyone hoping to understand exactly what GCR's Phosphate potential is read this report
> 
> http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/mount-isa/PDF/Phosphate-20071224.pdf
> 
> ...


----------



## goldmandane (4 May 2008)

Miner said:


> Goldmandane - i accidentally got into this thread and astonished the amazing value you, YT, Refined Silver and others have put here.
> Your candid note on Goldman sachs and  its crappy business is startling too.
> 
> How do we know about your website and appreciate if you please advise in this forum when you open it.
> ...




Look, to say its junk is a bit harsh. Fundamentally and long term the research is generally pretty good. My main problem is that they dont take into account the mind of the market, you can have a damn strong company but if the market sentiment is bad and the cash isnt there, the share price wont reflect its value. Really Goldmans takes a long term view to investing, which is what everyone should do, so in actual fact the research is very good. Just go expecting to make 100% overnight, its a long term thing. And the good thing is they don't purport to be anything else, with claims of ridiculous claims you see made by companies like "chartwell", etc.


----------



## michael_selway (4 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey guys little bit hung over today but I have some very good news
> 
> On Friday GCR's big brother Legend has continued its very strong rally and on Friday closed at an all time high of *$3.90*
> 
> ...




Hey great info thanks, it will be interesting your price target for GCR woudl be

thx

MS

-------------------------------


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2008)

Hi Michael,



*GCR*​
*
Mkt Structure*
*
Shares*
630m 
15m 8c - 10c Unlisted Employee Options

* Cash $4.5m * + $2m holding in listed assets/stocks (some still to be issued)
As well as this GCR are carried for $18.3m in exlploration by JV's including TRO, ZFX, Vale and Inco to name a few


Mkt Cap @4c = $25m Current


*Mkt Cap @10c = $63m Target* made up of 50% of Current Mt Isa EV and 10% of LOW CASE NPV for Copper Hill + cash and listed assets royalties etc

Mkt Cap @19c = $120m Current Mt Isa EV + 20% NPV of LOW CASE NPV @ Copper Hill



*
Projects**
Copper Hill**  Copper + Gold, 100%, NSW*

*JORC 133Mt's@0.31%Cu + 0.28g/t Au = 1g/t + Au Equiv*

Now although the deposit is low grade its gold equiv grade is not too bad ie 1g/t Au, but the main Pros and Cons are as follows 

http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html

*Pros*
- Exisiting infrastructure, rail, town, workforce, equipment etc etc
- Very low waste to ore ratio *0.6:1* this reduces the cost of hauling dirt, for example an operation grading say double Copper Hill but had a waste to Ore ratio of say 2:1 would be less economical as alot more dirt is required to be moved etc etc SO THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR
- Copper Hill copper concentrates contain no deleterious elements and may attract a price premium. (further metallurgical test work is required)
- Current NPV indicates a very very large return
- Located in Australia = very safe and mining friendly nation to operate it albeit with Environmental green tape 

*Cons*
- Huge Cap Ex = requires the backing of a major partner via either direct farm out or perhaps even offtake with commodity groups etc
- Low grade ore = high cost production (partially offset by low waster ratio) but = requires premium base metals prices to be profitable



*NPV*
Also here you will find the companies NPV calcs http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html

It is clearly shown that even using a *$600 AUD Gold price vs Current $950+ * and a *$2.65 AUD Copper price vs current $4.20+* an 8Mt p.a. operation will *generate an NPV of $270m* ($600m - $330m) 

*Now even if GCR farmed out 80% of this project to be free carried, that would still = a Net Attributable NPV of $54m = 8.5c*


I'm not saying hey Copper Hill is worth Millions I'm just saying given the balance of the pros and cons I think you can just cross of Copper Hill as adding value to GCR, but do agree to really take the project seriously the funding via a *JV or Offtake * needs to be established, I'm still waiting on confirmation of this.

p.s. There is also the EXPLORATION POTENTIAL at Copper Hill, I'd say they are looking to find higher grade satelite ore bodies etc




*
Projects**
Mt Isa**  Phosphate, 20% Free Carried by Legend Corp, Qld near Mt Isa and near to Incitecs exisitng Phosphate mine*

*Qld Govt Historic JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate*

Now this is a historic resource and the only reason it deosn't meet the JORC standard is because it was defined prior to the existance of the JORC code, ie any deposits no matter how ell defined that were established prior to the JORC code don't meet it, but really its just a technicality

See for yoursefl on the Qld Govt Minerals Database
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/493685.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/491206.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494076.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494100.htm



GCR's JV partner is *Legend International* a major Phosphate player in Aust, for more info on Legend see http://www.lgdi.net/

Now Legend are working towards getting the whole project area towards production, they recently completed a scoping study  and have an updated presentation which shows cost etimates, margins, production scenarios and resulting profit scenarios as well as timelines etc well worth a look http://www.lgdi.net/pdf/Legend_Phosp...ril_2008v2.pdf


*Valuing Mt Isa*
*EV*
Legend current shareprice = $3.90 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $780m US = $860m AUD

Legend has a NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.4Bt's but 100mt's is GCR's)

*$860m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 66c per tonne ore @15% Phosphate 

GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

@ 66c/t = $66m 10.5c GCR*

To keep an eye on Legends share price ann's and mkt cap see http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php but remember the Mkt Cap given doesn't take into account the 20m or so options and thus is 10% under what it should be



*Conclusions *
- Based on my prefered valuation the EV *GCR is worth 8c+ on Mt Isa alone*
-GCR is one of only 4 ASX listed companies with an actual Agricultural deposit
- GCR's deposits are between 60kms-150kms from IPL's operating Phosphate Mine
- GCR's project is part of a bigger project for big brother Legend kinda like the CUL/AQA relationship, the big brother has the deep funding pockes and expertise needed to advance these projects to production allowing GCR to advance its many other projects
- Copper Hill maybe in OFFTAKE discussions which would be a very important milestone for the company
- The company has many JV's and other projects from NSW to QLD to Panama to Canada


----------



## goldmandane (5 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Goldmandane,
> 
> The reason I provided the Legend web page link is so that you could go on it for yourself and browse and see, then you would realise Legend have no other real projects, their focus is the Phospahte, thus the bulk if not all of their mkt cap is attributable to the Phospahte project they have to which GCR has a a partial interest which I hve now repeatedly extrapolated an EV for to show *currently it should be worth 8c+ to GCR*
> 
> ...





Just looking at this mate, but where does it say that GCR has an interest in the Lily creek deposit??


----------



## JeSSica WaBBit (5 May 2008)

Took a position today 500,000 @ .042cents - was just waiting for the sell volume to disappear at .042 to confirm the trend for me.

Loads of buy volume there and looking for those buyers to overwhelm the sellers.

Good luck ASFer's


JW


----------



## refined silver (5 May 2008)

Lots of stale bulls getting out at 0.042 to 0.046.

If they'd read YTs reports they'd be fresh bulls and holding!!


----------



## refined silver (5 May 2008)

Don't quote me as I'm going from memory, but to add to YTs value analysis, it also needs mentioning I think they have something like $18m worth of drilling going on all their other properties that have been JVed, or royalty'd out.

Since most juniors this size have a hard time spending $1-2m a time on exp, thats a lot of drilling going on, on  a lot of properties.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2008)

Hey Goldman see here http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/mount-isa/default.html its clear to see Lily Creek is part of GCR's projects


Refined Silver your not wrong, there is $18m worth of JV funded exploration from partners including ZFX, TRO, Vale and Inco


Chartists I think we have a BREAKOUT here


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## JeSSica WaBBit (5 May 2008)

I'm out at 0.047 for $2,400 profit thank you very much!

Shall keep an eye on this one just in case it wants to give me some more money. Should provide some more action in the coming days and some fun opportunities for a bit of trading............

Good luck to the rest of you holding, i hope tomorrow provides you with further advances.


JW


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## Whiskers (5 May 2008)

JeSSica WaBBit said:


> I'm out at 0.047 for $2,400 profit thank you very much!




You clever little wabbit, you... 



> Shall keep an eye on this one just in case it wants to give me some more money. Should provide some more action in the coming days and some fun opportunities for a bit of trading............
> 
> Good luck to the rest of you holding, i hope tomorrow provides you with further advances.
> 
> JW




Yes keep an eye on it alright. YT is pretty conservative with his valuations and rightly so. But it has been out of favour with the market for quite awhile and from some sums I did earlier, once the market takes a liking to it the price could easily exceed those values.


----------



## jonojpsg (5 May 2008)

JeSSica WaBBit said:


> I'm out at 0.047 for $2,400 profit thank you very much!
> 
> Shall keep an eye on this one just in case it wants to give me some more money. Should provide some more action in the coming days and some fun opportunities for a bit of trading............
> 
> ...




Sweeeeeeet!  Nice work for a couple of hours - tell me, is this your day job or do you just have ready access to trade?


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## Whiskers (5 May 2008)

Record volume...28.6m shares traded so far today. 

Previous highest 28.17m in August 06 when they peaked at 11 cents.


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## Fed23 (5 May 2008)

JeSSica WaBBit said:


> I'm out at 0.047 for $2,400 profit thank you very much!
> 
> Shall keep an eye on this one just in case it wants to give me some more money. Should provide some more action in the coming days and some fun opportunities for a bit of trading............
> 
> ...




You were only in this stock for about 6hrs correct?

thats a good quick profit.

feeling up space here.. dont read


----------



## JeSSica WaBBit (5 May 2008)

Hi Gentlemen,

yer just in it a couple of hours. Not sure how long it was maybe 2 hrs?

No, not a full time trader, merely an amatuer but i have been watching this one for the last week. In QLD and its a public holiday today so i was able to make the trade.

I actually traded AGO just after the open and made $400.00 on that in about 3 mins, it could have been more because i was up $950.00 but i hesitated in executing the sell and it cost me $500.00. Silly wabbit....

Its how Larry Livingston would have executed the trade on GCR,thats what i have learnt from his trading style. Simple, trade with the trend and keep an eye on buyers and sellers, when one of them overwhelms the other and its trending in your predicted direction you take the trade.

As soon as i saw all those sellers get bought out at .042 i knew it was going to keep going, i placed an order for 250,000 to get some at .042, then the sales keep going through so i took the last of them at .042 with my next order, then i just rode the trend until it turned and sold out.

Basic stuff, that exactly what i did on AGO, rode it for a few bucks and as soon as it turned i was out.

No one ever knows which way it will go but probabilty tells you that if most indicators all point to the same thing then the liklihood is it will go that direction, that said, always be ready to get out in case it goes against you.

I am just a beginner like the rest of you but try and apply what i have learnt and always try to take low risk high probabilty trades. You dont need to trade every day to make money, you just have to make sure that when you decide to buy or sell its going to be something that has the best probabilty of going your way. 

Good luck to any of you who still hold.

JW


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2008)

Hmm a very interesting day today,

Clearly a wash out day getting rid of old stale hands and bringing on board new fresh believers in the story,

Now all we need is for Legend to continue its upwards run in the US 

Also I just recieved the article from my broker and yes GCR apparantly are in offtake discussions

see here http://www.asiaminer.com/magazine/latest/story-of-the-month.html




p.s. Jessica just imagine if you had bought say a few Million at 3.5c when I first posted? ? ? to each their own strategy but I feel today was a definate breakout day for GCR and over time it should move up stronger


----------



## Trader Paul (5 May 2008)

Posted 05052008:



Hi folks,

GCR ... has been on the move, since mid-April 2008 .....

..... expecting more positive moves over the next couple of weeks:

      09-12052008 ... minor and positive light on GCR

          16052008 ... minor cycle

     19-20052008 ... positive news expected here.

     03-04062008 ... more news expected, triggered by lunar cycle

         10062008 ... positive spotlight on GCR ... 2 time cycles here ... 

         13062008 ... significant and positive aspect.

         19062008 ... negative cycle expected ... could be B!!!G

    02-04072008 ... positive news expected ... 2 time cycles here.

        11072008 ... negative spotlight on GCR.

have a great day

  paul



=====


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## JeSSica WaBBit (5 May 2008)

True YT,

that would have been lovely, but, i am happy with my days work. There is always tomorrow and i can get back on board if i think it looks good. 

By the way, well done to yourself for picking this one and congratulations on putting up very informative posts on the stock.

Good luck YT, i hope you squeeze it for everything its worth.

JW


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## Whiskers (5 May 2008)

Yes, I think there were some long frustrated holders clearing out too,YT.

I've been in them for abt 18 mths and taken profits a couple of times, but I have still come back in later, because as the articlue you post points out, there are still good prospects to upgrade the resource at Copper Hill on top of the increasing value of the phosphate play.

I've held today, also looking for better to come this time.

I think the market might be starting to like the old girl a bit now... with a bit of help from YT's midas touch.


----------



## smurfette (5 May 2008)

Hi YT,

Thanks so much for all the information you put forward I knew you were on to another winner here. I bought last week and so owe much gratitude.

Smurfette


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## Gekko (5 May 2008)

Again YT, thanks. Your research made the decison to buy rather easy for me and im just glad i did most of my buying last week. You have the middas touch. Thanks


----------



## kromey (5 May 2008)

Gutnick's Legend Wins Agreement to Sell Fertilizer to India 

By Madelene Pearson

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Legend International Holdings Inc., controlled by mining entrepreneur Joseph Gutnick and backed by Atticus Capital Holdings LLC, agreed to sell India fertilizer worth $1 billion a year, shoring up supplies for the nation. 

Legend may supply at least 3 million metric tons of phosphate rock a year from its planned project in Australia to the Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Ltd., Gutnick said in an interview. Legend and IFFCO are also in talks to fund the development, estimated to cost $826.6 million, he said. 

The project may tap rising demand for crop nutrients in developing countries as they lift food and fiber consumption. India's fertilizer imports tripled in the four years to March 31, 2007, and China, which exports fertilizer to India, last month raised export taxes to meet domestic demand. 

``The fact that we have an end buyer is half the battle, if not more than half the battle,'' Gutnick, 55, said in an interview at the company's Melbourne headquarters. ``I've traveled to Asia to a number of countries, there is a shortage and there is a real need for fertilizers.'' 

Legend rose 82 cents, or 27 percent, to $3.92 in New York on May 2 in Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board trading. It has more than tripled this year. 

Gutnick is the company's largest shareholder with 47 percent of Legend stock. Atticus, a New York-based hedge fund holds 12 percent of the company. Legend got the rights to the project from the government of Australia's Queensland state last year. 

China, India 

Food needs in China and India will boost sales of crop nutrients for years to come, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world's largest fertilizer maker, said in February. South Asia, which includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, was the biggest importer of phosphate rock in 2006, according to the International Fertilizer Industry Association. 

Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative, known as IFFCO, says it's the country's largest producer of fertilizer from its five plants as of March 31, 2007, according to its Web site. The Delhi-based group has 50 million farmer members, Gutnick said. 

IFFCO may pay for some or all of the development cost in return for a stake in the plant or the company, Gutnick said. 

The price IFFCO will pay will be linked to international prices and is still being negotiated, he said. Based on today's price the deal is worth about $1 billion, he said. Phosphate rock is used to make crop nutrients. 

Production Target 

``We are assured of a good price in good times and bad,'' Gutnick said. ``It's a significant step forward.'' 

The project will have output of 5 million tons a year and includes a mine, a plant and pipeline to the port of Karumba in northern Queensland, for export. Production is scheduled to begin at the end of 2009, with a six-month contingency timeframe, Gutnick said. He is ``very confident'' it will go ahead. 

Gutnick was once a prominent gold miner in Australia. He was the founder of Great Central Mines Ltd., previously the nation's second-largest gold company. The mine is now owned by Newmont Mining Corp. 

China, which exports phosphate rock and urea to India, raised export taxes on fertilizers to as much as 135 percent last month. The increases, which will boost the tariff range from 0 percent to 35 percent, to 100 percent to 135 percent, will apply from April 20 to Sept. 30, the Ministry of Finance said last month.


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## michael_selway (5 May 2008)

JeSSica WaBBit said:


> Hi Gentlemen,
> 
> yer just in it a couple of hours. Not sure how long it was maybe 2 hrs?
> 
> ...




Hi Jess, for AGO, i wouldnt be surprised, that it could double from here in the next 12 months 

*AGO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -13.9 -2.9 16.2 66.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

GCR I am still looking into, thanks YT

MS


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2008)

So Legend has secured offtake agreements for the Mt Isa projects?

Well to all the nay sayers and doubters I wonder if this shows just how serious and advanced a player Legend really is?

Will be interesting to see how Legend ends up after the news and also what effect this has on GCR, I'm sure it will geet alot more attention now


----------



## Erzberg (6 May 2008)

Hallo Young_Trader...

interesting days ahead... Legend in the USA today after 1 hour of trading already 25 % up... = USD 4.90... I also would like to join all the other people already expressed their thanks for your more than excellent research... whenever you come to Vienna, a nice cup of coffee will be yours...

Erzberg


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## Pat (6 May 2008)

Check out the jousting in the depth this morning. I was lucky enough to get some at 0.041 yesterday morn for a quick trade but now I wish I held. The buyers are incredibly strong at this stage.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 May 2008)

Pat said:


> Check out the jousting in the depth this morning. I was lucky enough to get some at 0.041 yesterday morn for a quick trade but now I wish I held. The buyers are incredibly strong at this stage.




A bird in the hand is worth 10 in the bush. Think BIG .


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 May 2008)

22% this morning or almost 100% from when I first posted and was buying 

I have alot of faith now that this will make a charge towards 10c, if for no other reason than the fact that traders and the general mkt will vecome obssessed with it, watching and waiting


----------



## goldmandane (6 May 2008)

Well done YT, I think on the back of your comments, you have single handedly pushed this stock up in value, great market manipulation!!!

Just kidding mate,

Wish I got in, but don't think I will now that its in the 6ers!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 May 2008)

Goldman, all I did was present my argument as to why when GCR was in the low 3's it was undervalued, some(including yourself) just brushed it off, however I was confident in the research I had done and the facts I had assembled, the results of ACS and IRC re-assured me

Now for better or worse the mkt is saying I was right 

I can't believe the company is yet to make an ann about this, obviously alot of people know but if they made an ann that would make sure the mkt was fully informed, I bet they'll get a speeding ticket and will just mention it in there


----------



## goldmandane (6 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Goldman, all I did was present my argument as to why when GCR was in the low 3's it was undervalued, some(including yourself) just brushed it off, however I was confident in the research I had done and the facts I had assembled, the results of ACS and IRC re-assured me
> 
> Now for better or worse the mkt is saying I was right
> 
> I can't believe the company is yet to make an ann about this, obviously alot of people know but if they made an ann that would make sure the mkt was fully informed, I bet they'll get a speeding ticket and will just mention it in there




Please dont think I brushed it off mate, as I said previously its great research. I was just presenting arguments to the contrary to try and help us seee the risks involved, but what you presented is overwhelmingly positive for this stock, so well done. 

Its amazing how big the volumes are getting on this stockl from what it previously was. The market has awoken!!


----------



## Whiskers (6 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I can't believe the company is yet to make an ann about this, obviously alot of people know but if they made an ann that would make sure the mkt was fully informed, I bet they'll get a speeding ticket and will just mention it in there




From my experience, Kim Stanton-Cook is pretty conservative and loathe to push out too many progress reports, unless he has substantial good news to report and I have also found that some of the JV partners are a bit slow in passing on information to him. 

As you suggest he will probably say something in reply to a speeding ticket... otherwise he will probably mention something in a progress report when the Broken Hill results come in. Also they have always maintained a good cash position with royalties and JV partners paying a lot of exploration costs in their prospects, so they don't often need to go to the market for cash.



Whiskers said:


> I reckon it's certainly cheap alright YT. *Also, after allowing for estimated current qtr outlays, ($1.4m) just their estimated CASH at end of June ($3.2m) is worth 1/2 cent per share.*
> 
> GCR has added a lot of very valuable strings to it's bow in the last year.
> 
> ...


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 May 2008)

As a long term holder this recent action is a bit deja vu. Unless & until the co put's out some substantive evidence to back the sp the day traders will have had their fill and moved on. All good to see none the less and makin some serious bacon here, but we need some well timed hard facts now......


----------



## Whiskers (6 May 2008)

Probably worth a look at a chart here now.

This is the weekly over 5 years. For me this move is just beginning.


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## refined silver (6 May 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> As a long term holder this recent action is a bit deja vu. Unless & until the co put's out some substantive evidence to back the sp the day traders will have had their fill and moved on. All good to see none the less and makin some serious bacon here, but we need some well timed hard facts now......




I agree, that a lot of the action is manic day traders. 

I think the difference now though is with the Legend valuation and JV for the first time, potential is actually starting to be realised. Before it had great potential, and the price rose and fell as people got excited or otherwise.

A company 20 times the size, brings firstly the development of the project, second a more stable valuation for people to work out GCRs value. Being one of 4 ASX companies in a sector as basic as the world's food supply also helps.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (6 May 2008)

Guys the important thing to remember is that now the stock will get the attention it deserves

Good or bad the volume going through today is another real flush out,

As Refined has said the mkt will now start to take GCR seriously as an exposure to the Agri sector


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## Uncle Festivus (6 May 2008)

Yes, it's on the radar now, just need a bit of help to keep momentum going with an update or 2


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## sydneysider (6 May 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, it's on the radar now, just need a bit of help to keep momentum going with an update or 2




After studying this thread and reading YT's comments I did some homework on Legend. I am a little put off by the fact that Gutnick is behind Legend but then he had a very substantial following amongst the Hassidic community in the U.S. when Great Central went thru the roof (over a decade ago) because of their buying power. He has spent a considerable amount of money promoting Legend in the States and I suspect that some of this will also rub off on GCR. I bought this morning when the stock sold off into the mid 5's. Good luck to all longs.


----------



## goldmandane (6 May 2008)

sydneysider said:


> After studying this thread and reading YT's comments I did some homework on Legend. I am a little put off by the fact that Gutnick is behind Legend but then he had a very substantial following amongst the Hassidic community in the U.S. when Great Central went thru the roof (over a decade ago) because of their buying power. He has spent a considerable amount of money promoting Legend in the States and I suspect that some of this will also rub off on GCR. I bought this morning when the stock sold off into the mid 5's. Good luck to all longs.




Look, I can understand the gutnik concerns, he is a bit of a controversial character. But that doesn't mean he isnt a good businessman, i mean look where he is today. The fact is he has a long mining experience history, as do his colleague and team, so he will have a decent idea what he's doing. The only hope is that he isnt too old school and knows how to operate in this daty and age.


----------



## solomon (6 May 2008)

I have been watching the Indian stock market a bit lately and following the Hindi News.

I just noticed this news item which is of great value to understanding the valuation of legend and by implication GCR.

http://www.hindu.com/2008/05/06/stories/2008050655491600.htm

"NEW DELHI: Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Limited (IFCO) on Monday entered into a long-term off-take and supply agreement with Australia’s Legend International Holdings Inc. for about three million tonnes annually of concentrate rock phosphate from the Lady Annie project in Queensland, Australia.

IFFCO and Legend have decided to pursue the project in joint venture with an investment of about $800 million. IFFCO Managing Director U. S. Awasthi said, “India is now facing shortage of phosphate fertilizers which is causing concern to the farmers. The prices of phosphate fertilizers, including their raw material, have also increased many folds in the last one year due to supply constraints and other factors like increased use of bio fuels in different countries.”


----------



## Miner (7 May 2008)

Hello 

Could any one please advise if CII has some shadow similar synergy w]like GCR  being a high investor in phosphate rocks and recently acquired a major phosphate resource in CHina 
This one has been recommended to be a future blue chip in Wise Owl.

Regards


----------



## crisstoff (7 May 2008)

Hi Miner,

I hold both GCR and CII, but apart from the fact they both have Phosphate, there is not much else that is similar. I like GCR, but I see it as more a short-term play, whereas CII has is long-term potential IMO.

I think YT has summed up GCR very well. However CII holds a 38% interest in a producing Phosphate Resources and has various JV in China -of which the latest looks the most promising.

Phosphate Resources produces 700,000tpa of Phosphate. I would recommend that you work out what the potential earnings are - even with only a 38% interest.

 Phosphate Resources only has a limited lifetime of 5-7 years at this stage, but it is appealing to extend this. 

If you have a link or can summarise the Wise Owl recommendation that would be great


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2008)

Speeding ticket - 



> Response to ASX Price Query
> On 6 May 2008 the Company (GCR) received a price query from ASX due to the recent
> increase in the price and volume of trading in GCR’s securities, the share price having risen
> from 4.1c on 2 May 2008 to a high of 6.4c on 6 May 2008.  A copy of ASX’s letter is attached.
> ...


----------



## Trader Paul (7 May 2008)

Trader Paul said:


> Posted 05052008:
> 
> 
> 
> ...






Hi folks,

GCR ..... responded to ASX speeding ticket today, but our time
cycle analysis suggests, that there's more positive news/moves
for GCR, over the next month or so ..... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 May 2008)

Good response to the sppeding ticket,

They could have just been slack and said we know nothing

I especially liked these bits

LGDI is a Melbourne-based company, whose Chief Executive Officer is Mr Joseph Gutnick. Legend’s share price has risen recently from US$2.55 closing on 30 April 2008 to US$4.46 closing on 5 May 2008. At the 5 May price, LGDI had a market capitalisation of approximately *US$800 million.*

A possible reason for the increase in GCR’s share price is that LGDI recently published, at www.ldgi.net, its May 2008 presentation, which at page 3 lists the phosphate resources at the Lily Creek, Quita Creek, Sherrin Creek and Highland Plains prospects, all located on GCR’s 100%-owned Mt Isa properties farmed-out to LGDI. *The resources on the GCR properties equate to approximately 30% of the total contained P2O5 in LGDI’s published resources.*


----------



## Sean K (7 May 2008)

Nice work LN.  Was a great breakout a few days ago. Congrats on another short term success story!! Wonder how far it has to run?


----------



## Whiskers (7 May 2008)

Good work mod. :axt:

I was wondering what that one was all about. 

Back to business... a couple of sales back to .049 to fill the gap up yesterday. 

Should see it move on to higher sustainable levels now.


----------



## goldmandane (7 May 2008)

YT, your claim about LDGI having its share price mostly based upon the GCR project is quite incorrect if i amr eading things right. 

Firstly jsut so its not like im stonewalling you here or anything, I think you were saying thats there only main major project.

Anyway looking at today speeding ticket and reading on there website, it looks like perhaps their main project is lady annie, and that is whats driving the share price?? Not sure Im at work so havent got time to look into it properly, so maybe thought you ahd an answer straight off


----------



## sydneysider (7 May 2008)

goldmandane said:


> YT, your claim about LDGI having its share price mostly based upon the GCR project is quite incorrect if i amr eading things right.
> 
> Firstly jsut so its not like im stonewalling you here or anything, I think you were saying thats there only main major project.
> 
> Anyway looking at today speeding ticket and reading on there website, it looks like perhaps their main project is lady annie, and that is whats driving the share price?? Not sure Im at work so havent got time to look into it properly, so maybe thought you ahd an answer straight off




U are correct. LDGI intends to develop Lady Annie first. The GCR tenements need to be drilled and bought up to JORC standard first. In any event the market is now valuing a 20% free carried interest in 500 MT of phosphate at around 1 cent (631,000,000 shares) = $6.31 million. Whereas the U.S. market is valuing the same asset at multiples of the local valuation. There is a study on the LDGI website that evaluates some of the production parameters of Lady Annie, that may shed some light on valuing the GCR tenements. IMHO GCR is extremely undervalued at 5 cents.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2008)

Looks like we got our fade or taper today, along with the general market weakness. Getting back to accumulate levels again?


----------



## Fed23 (7 May 2008)

The stock is going down today, doesn't look good for the rest of the day.

Down almost 20%. Tossing up weather to top up or sell


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 May 2008)

Goldman,

Your misunderstanding me, please re-read what I said!

I said Legends only/main project is its Phosphate at Mt Isa area

I then worked out what EV the US where giving Legend for each tonne of phosphate ore and extrapolated this to GCR

Also my last post is pretty much a copy and paste for the speeding ticket so don't shoot the mesenger


----------



## Whiskers (7 May 2008)

Fed23 said:


> The stock is going down today, doesn't look good for the rest of the day.
> 
> Down almost 20%. Tossing up weather to top up or sell




I'm with Uncle Festivus... top up levels.

As I posted earlier there was a gap up at open yesterday. It also opened above the bollinger band. So what we are seeing is short term day traders, some lots of 1m to 1.5 m dumped, as they do when volume slows down.

For me though, it will probably finish the day in the low 5's and maybe trade tomorrow at similar levels. By then the daily candle will be well within the bollinger band again ready for the day traders to have another go.

I always refer to the weekly chart for the main trend. For me the fact that the gap up has been filled, the weekly chart is consistant with the fundamentals... still indicates plenty of upside potential.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (7 May 2008)

Whiskers

The attributable EV at Mt Isa from Legend is still over 10c, 

So just sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination


----------



## Whiskers (7 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Whiskers
> 
> The attributable EV at Mt Isa from Legend is still over 10c,
> 
> So just sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination




Yes indeed YT.

I watch cycles, sort of like Trader Paul. I happen to agree with him from his earlier post, that Friday and Monday will be good/significant days.

But as TP says and we know, there is also plenty of other activity happening which is likely to report over the next couple of months and which has the potential to make 10c look cheap.


----------



## Fed23 (7 May 2008)

Time      SSN   Price   Quantity   
 16:10 517,912 4.6 224,000    
 16:10 517,911 4.6 64,000    
 16:10 517,910 4.6 532,000    
 16:10 517,909 4.6 180,000    
 15:59 511,792 4.8 82,000 

Closing trades. Im still new to this but how do trades after 4pm go thru?

Thats almost 1million shares traded after business.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2008)

Fed23 said:


> Time      SSN   Price   Quantity
> 16:10 517,912 4.6 224,000
> 16:10 517,911 4.6 64,000
> 16:10 517,910 4.6 532,000
> ...




http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_hours_asx.htm


----------



## ColB (7 May 2008)

Not happy to see GCR fall from high of 0.060 to 0.046 today after buying at 
0.041 on 4/5/08.  I bought this after reading YT's analysis and like Goldman I might as well have a dip at YT.  It must be his fault!  Seriously, those that like to continually question YT's posts should go back through time ( a couple of years) like I did and test his selection of trades.  You will also find, as a result of reading those threads that there are also many other members along the way that didn't have the patience or conviction to stay the course.  I did this analysis and is why I am happy to jump on YT's bandwagon.  I hope in time I can acquire some of the knowledge and skill that he imparts and offer something to other members in return.  Until that happens good luck to everyone holding GCR.  I purchased another lot at 0.047 today (didn't quite pick the bottom!)

PS:  This is not a paid promotion for the YT Fan Club


----------



## Fed23 (7 May 2008)

ColB said:


> Not happy to see GCR fall from high of 0.060 to 0.046 today after buying at
> .  I purchased another lot at 0.047 today (didn't quite pick the bottom!)




I got a decent amount in the last trades before close @ .048, **** me to see it dip from it's high, but I managed to get some at 0.037 so I'm gonna hope tomorrow is a good day.

But YT has done heaps of analysis on this and I'd like to thank him.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2008)

ColB said:


> PS:  This is not a paid promotion for the YT Fan Club




Then I can only assume YT was busy accumulating in the week before his first post? Am I getting warm YT?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (8 May 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Then I can only assume YT was busy accumulating in the week before his first post? Am I getting warm YT?




lol well we're all here to make money aren't we?

Thankfully as some other ASF'ers have pointed out I try my best to make us all money,

Cleary had you paid attention to my first few posts and bought in the 3's you would be a happy camper,

I get the feeling the stock is being traded far too much though, so like I said previously 

"sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination"


----------



## Spineli (8 May 2008)

On a lighter note ASF'ers just look at Young Trader's display picture, admire it and have a laugh......


----------



## sydneysider (8 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> lol well we're all here to make money aren't we?
> 
> Thankfully as some other ASF'ers have pointed out I try my best to make us all money,
> 
> ...




I agree that GCR is being frenetically daytraded. The hourly / ten day "tics" clearly show that the stock price had "busted" out the top of its trend and now pulled substantially back to the point where all the indicators are flashing green. See chart below. 

On a fundamental basis Legend/Gutnik is valued at US$750 million based on the development of Lady Annie to produce annualized profit of US$700 million from the sale of 5,000,000 tonnes of phosphate at 32-34%. Assuming that they give up 50% of this, they are selling on a forward PE of roughly TWO TIMES. IF GCR's Lilly or Sherrin get developed, they will produce for over 35 years at the same rate as Lady Annie with a US$375 million capex. This means that GCR will get an estimated US$140 million per year from its 20% free carried interest. Applying the same valuation principle to GCR as to Legend then GCR is worth very close to 50 cents. Early last year GCR paid 5 cents per share ($3.3 million worth) to buy these leases via King Eagle. At yesterdays close the Legend deal was worth minus 1/2 cent ( minus  $1,650,000) off the original purchase price of King Eagle. IMHO GCR is worth somewher 10-15 cents AND when a phosphate finance offtake agreement is announced the stock will explode above that price. IF u remember how Gutnik developed Great Central then a deal on the GCR tenements is closer than u think. The current trading is all weird and wonderful and totally disconnected from reality and simply based on a rear mirror multi year view of trading in GCR shares.


----------



## goldmandane (8 May 2008)

Liking what sydney sier has to say about this.

Its going to bump around with the day traders, but I think as also YTs analysis shows its got great potential and fundamentally should come out well at the other end.

Done my own analysis on this, and bought in now and its looking good.

Thanks to YT for alerting us to this one


----------



## Uncle Festivus (8 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> lol well we're all here to make money aren't we?
> 
> Thankfully as some other ASF'ers have pointed out I try my best to make us all money,
> 
> ...




Sorry YT if you took this the wrong way, I was only wondering how you set up for these things, as the stock was moving for a good week & a half before your first post. Are you buying RED now?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (8 May 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Sorry YT if you took this the wrong way, I was only wondering how you set up for these things, as the stock was moving for a good week & a half before your first post. Are you buying RED now?




RED? Thats a gold company from memory, nah not me
Taking profits on ACS it was such an obvious undervalued play and moving harder into DMM

But this is the GCR thread so back to GCR, Goldman any chance that you'll have a crack at putting together some research?

Are any of the other Goldman boys watching it?


----------



## goldmandane (8 May 2008)

Good report issued by URM now, they found some high grade phosphate deposits near the Mt isa region, which bodes well for GCR!!!!


----------



## dumpty (8 May 2008)

Fester.........when you can make a positive contribution that we can actually use to trade a share and make a profit then and only then will you have earnt the right to question young traders motives.....my bank account is testimony to his willingness to share.........i  cant say the same for you


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (8 May 2008)

I can't believe the mkt sometimes

*URM* have 62m shares + 28m unlisted options = 100m fully dilluted 
*@ 26c = $26M Mkt Cap*

And what did they announce today? Rock chip samples


*GCR* have 630m shares which @ 4.8c = *$30m*
And GCR have 100Mt's Phosphate JV'd with Legend, an implied EV value of over 10c based on Legends Mkt Cap, a very large Copper Gold deposit thats in offtake talks, about 8 other JV's in Aust, Gold in Panama, Uranium in Canada

Ohhhh Mr Market you are certainly a funny creature


----------



## pattyp (8 May 2008)

The punters have lost the friggen plot over fertilizer... I cannot believe the price rises coming through on "I smelt Phosphate in the local toilet" Announcements. URM today was the absolute pinnacle of insanity!

Its extremely funny...

I only hope there are not too many casualties from this.

I am extremely boring and conservative - The only ones I can find REAL longer term value in are RWD and MAK... Anything else I run a DCF on looks borked when weighted against the risks!

GCR looks ok, but not for me  But am still keeping a very close eye on it.


----------



## Whiskers (8 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> The punters have lost the friggen plot over fertilizer...




Hi pattyp.

I have had many years experience in the agricultural industry. In fact I was born and raised on a farm in the dairy and sugar industry and spent most of my working life with direct interests in the horticulture industry. 

I can assure you increasing demand for fertiliser has been outstripping supply for a few years now and the extra cost has been coming through to agricultural producers.

What is adding to the what appears to be exponential demand for fertiliser is the increasing amounts of agricultural production going to biofuel in Brazil and even the US lately, not to mention the desperate demand for phosphate fertiliser in India for food production.

And anyone who knows anything at all about agriculture knows that:


You need phosphate to produce sweet and high protein foods

you need high sugar content to produce biofuel

*The only way to get high sugar's is via phosphate fertilisers.*




> GCR looks ok, but not for me  But am still keeping a very close eye on it.




This phosphate play is consistant with and far exceeds previous royalty and JV deals to defray resource and development costs while maintaining and ensuring good future investment and cash inflows from it's projects with minimal further outlays.


----------



## pattyp (8 May 2008)

U have missed my point and r preaching to the Choir Whiskers...

I have been EXTREMELY bullish on Ag and Fertilizer for a while...

But when u start running realistic forecasts over STB, SMD, BON, SOI, URMs (and the like) you will find that the Fair Value, NPVs, IRRs when weighted by the risks/time frames are garbage.

All I see on the forums at present are people trying to ramp HUGE value in corps. that have nothing except a clever PR campaign... 

Thats just my opinion. When you show me the DCF and reserve estimates that prove otherwise I am more then willing to have a go! 

I'm weighted 70% towards Ag in my portfolio at present... But let me tell u... URM doesn't fall into it.

I respect your history in Ag and am an avid learner willing (wanting) to listen... But if you are trying to convince me of the commercials in these mega mega specs I need to know more about the resource, grade, opex, capex, mine life... etc

We r on the same side - I'm just perhaps more conservative - Cheers!


----------



## pattyp (8 May 2008)

BTW - I estimate MAK at at fair value of 1.5billion MCAP (With a Phospahte price of $200 opex $100p/ton, capex 90mil) and it has a JORC resource... This gives me worst case a share price of $17... Before the project is not economical.

That is far mroe upside then I can see in GCR right now... Id rather stick a couple more grand into MAK then diversify into GCR purely for the sake of diversification.

Again, for the record, GCR is one that I favor over the others... But i just don't see the point in investing here based on my personal strategy and investment style.

I like GCR...

Again, just my opinion 

Pat


----------



## Whiskers (8 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> U have missed my point and r preaching to the Choir Whiskers...
> ---
> We r on the same side - I'm just perhaps more conservative - Cheers!




Oh, good.  

I'm not familiar with the others you mention, so I can't comment there.

But I've held, traded and kept a close eye on every aspect of GCR for about 1 1/2 years and like what I see, except as some of us long term holders have experienced it has been a bit frustrating getting there. 

PS: While GCR is undervalued for its phosphate (as YT as detailed) it is far more than that. We should have more assays from the greater Copper hill project in the near future. 

Personally, I'm confident Copper Hill will be re-rated with an increase resource and grade in the not too distant future. They have been doing a lot of additional scouting to enlarge the project but have made limited announcements so far other than some better Cu and Au samples have been encountered.


----------



## pattyp (9 May 2008)

"I'm not familiar with the others you mention, so I can't comment there."

And I wouldn't even bother with the others yet - Except for perhaps the valuation exercise to understand my point about the crazy punters 

I think GCR is a winner - u Guys/Gals here have summed it up very well...

Good luck man, I think your patience will pay off!

Pat


----------



## pattyp (9 May 2008)

Whiskers said:


> ...I'm confident Copper Hill will be re-rated with an increase resource and grade in the not too distant future.




And I tell ya what... If they come up with the goods on top of the Phosphate cashflow... I'll be all over it and probably posting on this forum like a crazy person ! ! !

LoL


----------



## Uncle Festivus (9 May 2008)

dumpty said:


> Fester.........when you can make a positive contribution that we can actually use to trade a share and make a profit then and only then will you have earnt the right to question young traders motives.....my bank account is testimony to his willingness to share.........i  cant say the same for you



Humpty.... perhaps if you were able to do your own research (and read the thread!) you can see I & others have presented the compelling data for GCR in this thread for several months now. *I  am in no way detracting from YT's presentation*. If you are the type of investor who needs someone to put things simply and obviously, then keep following. We thank you for adding to our bank accounts. How about reading this thread's post's before April, instead of shooting first and thinking second, if at all.


----------



## goldmandane (9 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> RED? Thats a gold company from memory, nah not me
> Taking profits on ACS it was such an obvious undervalued play and moving harder into DMM
> 
> But this is the GCR thread so back to GCR, Goldman any chance that you'll have a crack at putting together some research?
> ...




Pretty much put toghether the website for the reports, now need to start working ont he report. Beenr eally busy at work at the moment (although im here on this forum now during work hours haha), anywy hopefully get onto it this weekend.

Noone here talks about GCR mate, its far too speccy. Research team here doesnt focus on these kinds of stocks, mostly the top 200, and a maybne 1 or 2 smaller miners.

But I'll start shooting my mouth off here in my department once ive got some massive gains there!!!.


----------



## Whiskers (9 May 2008)

*Originally posted on 7th-May-2008* 



Whiskers said:


> I'm with Uncle Festivus... top up levels.
> 
> As I posted earlier there was a gap up at open yesterday. It also opened above the bollinger band. So what we are seeing is short term day traders, some lots of 1m to 1.5 m dumped, as they do when volume slows down.
> 
> ...




and...



Whiskers said:


> Yes indeed YT.
> 
> I watch cycles, sort of like Trader Paul. I happen to agree with him from his earlier post, that Friday and Monday will be good/significant days.
> 
> But as TP says and we know, there is also plenty of other activity happening which is likely to report over the next couple of months and which has the potential to make 10c look cheap.




The share price is coming on right on cue Trader Paul.

But as YT comprehensively demonstrated, it's cheap and there is plenty of room for the share price to move to reach full value.

 And as you point out... good cycles ahead for awhile.


----------



## goldmandane (9 May 2008)

Did 16.67% today!!!

Bit of volume later in the arvo from 3 to 4 after a lazy mid afternoon saw it rise from 5.1 to 5.6!!


----------



## smurfette (10 May 2008)

Yeah nice move friday. Looks like the breakout has held and the stock looks like it wants to move higher. I have done some reading on MNM and URM today and they are clearly inferior to GCR as they are far less advanced. GCR has a lot more to go if you compare it to those.

Smurfette


----------



## golfmos123 (12 May 2008)

Well the star is falling back to earth today, and has now (at 4.7c) given up most of the gains of last week.   Should find support at low 4's and hopefully be ready to bounce again (?).  

Kind of looks like a good time to buy up again........do any chartists or techies want to add anything???


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## Miner (12 May 2008)

it was only yesterday this thread was red hot with postings. 
I noticed the GCR fell down. that is not a drama as this share was jumping up and down with a range of 14% (about) in SP. But surprisingly today / tonight is very quiet. Last posting was 10.10 AM and now it is about 9.10 PM WST. Looks like all techies have gone to have a good snooz

Cheers


----------



## ans25 (12 May 2008)

Its either that or restocking getting ready for the next kick!!

Just bought some more today, I think though this stock is going to get kicked about with all day traders.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 May 2008)

Hey guys been busy the last few days and so haven't had time to post much

Anyway nothing more to add to GCR, we all know the story, we all know the game plan, its a matter fo waiting to see how it all unfolds really

I noticed today that MAK, STB and RWD came back a little so perhaps this explains GCR's shakes and wobbles????

Also I notice Legend has fallen to $3.50 a share, this still gives an implied EV of 8c-10c for Mt Isa to GCR if my memory serves me correct


----------



## sydneysider (13 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey guys been busy the last few days and so haven't had time to post much
> 
> Anyway nothing more to add to GCR, we all know the story, we all know the game plan, its a matter fo waiting to see how it all unfolds really
> 
> ...




Legend released its US quarterly report this morning. Salient points affecting GCR (1) Legend has $13.8 million in cash, committed $5,000,000 to drilling its phosphate leases and doing feasibility studies within twelve months and IF positive results occur will add more dollars to increase drilling tempo (to generate more deals) (2) JV agreement with GCR states that Legend will pay for all assaying of BOTH phosphates and uranium althou they get NIL interest in the uranium (3) GCR can pay for assaying of any other metals (4) Recent JV signed in December said that an updated and detailed JV would be out in 60 days with detailed drilling plans, budgets and other stuff. This should be due very soon.

Phosphate deposits have been mined for uranium in Louisiana, USA. My research on this is sketchy but typical grades of u i-IN phosphate run between 50-200 ppm. Assuming the phosphate is being mined then the u can be extracted via an acid leach circuit (Mt Isa has lots of acid). Costs range $20-50 pound to recover (reasonably recent commentary for US deposits). This does not take account for u ban in Queensland which is currently in place. Assuming that 480 million tonnes of phosphate carry typical grades found in other deposits then 50-200 ppm of u then very rough guesstimate (very speculative estimate) of u in place is around 48.39 to 193 million pounds of u. This makes it a very, very, very substantial deposit of u.


----------



## golfmos123 (13 May 2008)

Another day in red ink, another opportunity to top up - love it....

Looks the SP needs another piece of YT magic!!!!


----------



## Miner (13 May 2008)

Congratulations to myself.
I have made some investment in GCR yesterday at 50 cents and in one day i saw it dived into 43 cents. THat is remarkable achivement loosing money 14% in one day . Ha Ha Who can beat my stupidity.


----------



## Fed23 (13 May 2008)

Miner said:


> Congratulations to myself.
> I have made some investment in GCR yesterday at 50 cents and in one day i saw it dived into 43 cents. THat is remarkable achivement loosing money 14% in one day . Ha Ha Who can beat my stupidity.





Let me guess you bought at the start of the day? I personally think it's always dangerous buying at the start of the trading day.

I will be looking at tomorrows price to top up as pay day is tomorrow. todays low of 4.3c didnt last too long quickly jumping back to 4.5


----------



## Wysiwyg (13 May 2008)

Miner said:


> Congratulations to myself.
> I have made some investment in GCR yesterday at 50 cents and in one day i saw it dived into 43 cents. THat is remarkable achivement loosing money 14% in one day . Ha Ha Who can beat my stupidity.





There were 52,779,400 shares traded at between .055c and .064c.I don`t see any of them knocking themselves.Better luck next time with the retrace entry fella.You will get it right for sure.

Besides, i`ve made worse entries than that.


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## Miner (13 May 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> There were 52,779,400 shares traded at between .055c and .064c.I don`t see any of them knocking themselves.Better luck next time with the retrace entry fella.You will get it right for sure.
> 
> *Besides, i`ve made worse entries than that*.




Thanks for two courageous notes. 
I will be brave tomorrow and hope tonight's budget should not spoil the party further .

Thanks once again folks and such panadol does help to get a temporary relief.


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## Miner (14 May 2008)

As we speak there are 60 buyers for 9,206,019 units  160 sellers for 24,963,442 units before ASX opens which means there would be many more blood lines in share price showing green lights for some buyers defying all calculations and chartists predictions.

Interesting if the market does get affected in speculative shares like GCR thorugh ASF postings? Who knows how many high power traders are behind the screen watching and working utilising the sentiments and their logic.

Have a great day


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 May 2008)

Hmmmm now I see why you acted the way you did last night,

Miner you have to understand you had plenty of opportunity to buy 3.5c-4c as did all other ASF'ers,

If you bought at 5c and it dips the next day don't blame me and don't lose faith in a day, I mean is this how you invest?

When you buy a stock you should assess all of its fundamentals, determine FOR YOURSELF what you think the value is and buy with a plan on when to exit

I have stated repeatedly why I though GCR was undervalued around the 3.5c - 4c given its only just above to me it still looks undervalued but I have plenty and thus am not buying more ..... yet


Give this story a few months to play out, see MXR I posted on that at 15c, it fell a few weeks after to 13c I bought heaps kept posting why I thought it was undevalued and a few days ago it did 75m volume up to over 30c so had you been a beliver you would have made 100%+ and the ann that caused it wasn't a surprise to me (although the size was) as i had said over and over that I was expecting it prior to its release

So I will say it here over and over, wait and see what turns out for GCR, so much value, Mt Isa JV, Copper Hill offtakes + exploration drilling, U in Canada, Gold in Panama, other high profile JV's here in NSW Qld etc etc just be patient


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## pattyp (14 May 2008)

G'Day YT,

Did you know that your analysis (Almost word for word) was copy/pasted into T$ and HC... A huge ramp campaign got spawed... 

IMO Excellent Analysis... But perhaps you need to also indicate in those analysis (CAPITALS) that its a SUPER volatile stock...And that it may take eg. 20-weeks and possibly fall back to 4c...

Like I said before, reason I stay away from sub 10c is because the daily movements make me yak LoL.

Not only did the analysis spread, I received Private Msgs telling me to jump onto GCR because its the hottest thing in the market... That definitely says something about your influence.

Spiderman: "Great power comes great responsibility"

Again, for the record, I think GCR is undervalued... But Legend is still a distance from production, there are still risks... And GCR is maybe fairly valued based on time lines and risks at around 5c.

Keep up the excellent work, but keep in mind that a lot of people blindly follow your lead.

Just my opinion - Not a criticism at all, just constructive feedback.

Cheers,
Pat


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## blehgg (14 May 2008)

> Note: I am not a Financial Adviser, nor are any of my posts intended to be financial advice, they merely express my own opinions




Pretty sure thats why YT has that in his signature, 

I think I remember a post from a while back explaining that people have made and LOST a lot on some of YTs analysis, or maybe it was Kennas's.... can't remember

Its always at your own risk ~ its an investment ~ if you wan't 0 risk chuck it into a fixed deposit 

oh btw - thanks YT and all you other analysers out there  You guys could just sit back and keep the information to yourselves - but its nice to have a forum to post ideas


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 May 2008)

yes Patty P I am aware of this, there are a few posters form HC who steal the stuff from ASF and then palm it off as their own and get credit for my work, its been a problem for over a year, a few kind ASF'ers usually pm me and give me the heads up when it happens, 

Not much I can do, I tried to confront them about it but got bitterly abused and so thought may as well stay away,



Also I realised traders were jumping all over this and they can cause huge volatilty hence my post 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> So just sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination




I'm not sure what some people expect of me, 100% retunrs overnight guaranteed with no risk??????


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## pattyp (14 May 2008)

People are lazy - and therefore they want to believe that there is some magical trading system that delivers 100% wins, that there is a fundamental analysis formula that 100% predicts business value, and they want to believe that there is a guru that always wins and they post for free on the forums...

Human nature... and its what allows smart traders/investors to transfer capital from the inexperienced into their own hands...

But you know all this... Not meaning to preach to you, i'm trying to reinforce your message.

Your new "Posting Style" to present your analysis was great... 

Maybe stick a BIG *RISK RATIO: 60%, TIMEFRAME: 2-months* at the top of your posts... Thats kinda what the commercial stock reports, etc, do...

Pat


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> Maybe stick a BIG *RISK RATIO: 60%, TIMEFRAME: 2-months* at the top of your posts... Thats kinda what the commercial stock reports, etc, do...
> 
> Pat




lol I wish I was that advanced, I'd be guessing at the risk ratio and the time frame but I might try and incorporate that somehow

Cheers for the thoughts

Back to GCR even Legend in the US has come off from its Lofty Highs, still the implied EV is greater than the current SP 

Also I remember drilling was meant to start, in Panama, or maybe it was more sampling


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## pattyp (14 May 2008)

Legend (LGDI) Looks to be trying to make a reversal, off this correction... Was down -10% (273c) after open,  but then got bought hard on volume, ended up +4.5% (326c)...

Very strong sector...  I am a bit surprised that the confident performance didn't translate (even a little) to GCR today.


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## Miner (14 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hmmmm now I see why you acted the way you did last night,
> 
> Miner you have to understand you had plenty of opportunity to buy 3.5c-4c as did all other ASF'ers,
> 
> ...





Dear YT

Rest assured I have not blamed you or any one at all for your actions. That is not my style.

You are not my financial adviser (I wish if you could however) and I have not paid fee for your posting or personal opinion either.

So it is only fair for me to take the risk on my own than passing the buck.

I always appreciate your research per se and I need to take risk on my shoulder on board when I do not have the same capability.

My action and result of that should not deter you or any one  from posting. I honestly  appreciate that you have taken time to explain your posting while responding my post.

Every thing is above board and I have no courage to sell GCR today any way so sold  my FMG to recoup the loss ! 

Again that is my decision and not to blame any one. This is an open forum so within limit we should be right to express ourselves. 

Regards


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## Whiskers (14 May 2008)

The price has weakened a bit in the last few days, but I think it's significant that there has always been more buyers than sellers... albeit waiting just below the last trade.

Today again, buyers have out numbered sellers by abt 3:1 

From a tech perspective, (looking at the charts) I think GCR still has more to go in the near future. I think it should find a bottom within the next few days, maybe tomorrow.

All we need is for the expectation of plenty of news to start coming to fruition.

Some positive news re any of the numerous exploration activities going on at the moment, particularly Copper Hill or the release of Legends development program should see this re-rating kick-in in earnest.


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## Fed23 (14 May 2008)

Whiskers said:


> The price has weakened a bit in the last few days, but I think it's significant that there has always been more buyers than sellers... albeit waiting just below the last trade.
> 
> Today again, buyers have out numbered sellers by abt 3:1




Then why does the SP move down? I dont understand this.

I hope that it doesnt get any lower than todays low of 4c.


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## Whiskers (14 May 2008)

Fed23 said:


> Then why does the SP move down? I dont understand this.
> 
> I hope that it doesnt get any lower than todays low of 4c.




I think it's a sign that buyers are bideing their time until an announcement comes to draw down the price, ie to lure or suck in impatient sellers/traders. 

From a TA perspective it was overbought a bit, so you get day traders selling off and taking profits and or cutting their loss when it comes off a top, often exaggerating the movement a bit. 

I would say probably tomorrow it will be back in TA buy territory again... but that doesn't necessairly mean buyers will rush in and drive the price up. But as I said earlier there is a lot of news to come in from a lot of projects over the next few months and the first good news item will no doubt see a run on the stock again.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 May 2008)

If I'm reading the chart right (which I'm probably not given I'm a LN lol hey Kenna?) 4c should act as good support

I agree with Whiskers and would add that given the amount of interest it recieved a few days back, any slightly good announcement will be a catalyst for another move up


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## YOUNG_TRADER (15 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> If I'm reading the chart right (which I'm probably not given I'm a LN lol hey Kenna?) 4c should act as good support
> 
> I agree with Whiskers and would add that given the amount of interest it recieved a few days back, any slightly good announcement will be a catalyst for another move up




That looks like a bounce off 4c to me,

Charts such wonderful creatures 

I'm guessing the drop to 4c flushed out alot of traders and holders who were ready to stag as alot of the sell depth has thined,

Anyway as I said we'll need a meat and veg ann to get excited,

Waiting waiting


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## d_crome (15 May 2008)

YT Mate - what sort of announcements are we talking here (i.e. in regards to which of their projects?)?

Hopefully they continue with their connections to Legend and reinforce they're still part of the poo brigade!

Also mentioning Poo Brigade, what are your thoughts on STB still?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (15 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Also I remember drilling was meant to start, in Panama, or maybe it was more sampling




D Chrome as I said yesterday something was happening in Panama and it looks like I was right

"Panama Drilling Update"
Early results are encouraging according to the company

Also we can expect some assays from Copper Hilldrilling in 4-6 weeks time 


p.s. Re STB my last post on the thread summed up my position on it, "cheap spec exposure" to Agri sector


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## Whiskers (15 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> That looks like a bounce off 4c to me,
> 
> Charts such wonderful creatures
> 
> ...




I'd say so too, YT. 

Looks like they're buttering up the bread ready. 

Early visual results are promising. Pananma has very good grades and may be a significant project if they can be confirmed in volume.

The Power anomoly is shaping up to be similar to Copper Hill with wide zones of low grade copper observed. If the assays come up with a bit better grade than Copper Hill, that project should attract much stronger JV interest.



> *Panama*
> GCR is pleased to announce encouraging early signs from its diamond drilling program at the
> Los Hatillos property in Panama, following completion of the first two holes, LHD-01, to 210m,
> and LHD-02, to 150m. The holes were designed to test the down-dip extension of the Veta
> ...


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## sydneysider (15 May 2008)

Whiskers said:


> I'd say so too, YT.
> 
> Looks like they're buttering up the bread ready.
> 
> ...




Whiskers, the interesting comment about the Panama project is that the vein system has ben identified as multi kilometer long on and near surface and now two drill holes confirm it as having depth (continuity and widening) AND being mesothermal in nature. These systems are found on major faults zones in the earths crust and are formed at depths of at least 3-5 kilometers. They tend to be very large systems.


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## goldmandane (15 May 2008)

sydneysider said:


> Whiskers, the interesting comment about the Panama project is that the vein system has ben identified as multi kilometer long on and near surface and now two drill holes confirm it as having depth (continuity and widening) AND being mesothermal in nature. These systems are found on major faults zones in the earths crust and are formed at depths of at least 3-5 kilometers. They tend to be very large systems.




It sounds like a nice find, with some high grade readings all be it in only 1 or 2 drill holes. But what I cant understand is the market goes nuts for some rock chip samples that URM find but not in this


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## sydneysider (20 May 2008)

goldmandane said:


> It sounds like a nice find, with some high grade readings all be it in only 1 or 2 drill holes. But what I cant understand is the market goes nuts for some rock chip samples that URM find but not in this




Bellhaven reported previously that the Adit#1 on the Los Hatillos strike system (3-4kms) contains an measured and inferred resource of 17,000 tonnes @ 12.5 g/t gold, 21.6 g/t silver, .14% copper, 2.49% lead, 3.95% zinc. The two reported holes now extend that tonnage down to 165m downdip from the adit at 20m width (in the adit it was at 1.2m width) and to the North by 50m at a width of 10m. Assuming that the average width of the vein is now 5m and it is contained  in a block 100m x 185m (assuming mineralization extends 25m from each hole in all directions) i infer a tonnage of 2.5 tonnes per cubic meter for a total of 231,250 tonnes. Now this is two holes covering 50 meters over a 3-4 km strike length (total strike targets exceed 8kms in the general area) ANd we now know that the system is mesothermal and has the potential to extend to very great depths. This project could get very exciting very quick, the next few holes will tell more. IF u review the previous data on the surface sampling and trenching u will realize that a very substantial quantity of decent grade gold values leached into local creeks and on surface. Please note that i make no comment on grades, as assays are some weeks away but merely reflect on the GCR geological description of cores and photos contained in last weeks report and comment on my "ballpark" estimation of tonnage.

More to follow. Good luck to all longs


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## Whiskers (20 May 2008)

New presentation out today. Looks like GCR is lifting their marketing game. 

There seems to be a bit of new material... maps, diagrams, magnetic impressions etc that I haven't seen before.

I'm only half way through the 70 slides yet, but it looks like they're starting to get quite upbeat about the projects they're involved in now.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (20 May 2008)

Hey Whiskers, yeah I tend to agree

Also noticed they're beating the drum alot harder re Copper Hill

All positive if you ask me,

Stock looks to have found support around 4c


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## sydneysider (21 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Whiskers, yeah I tend to agree
> 
> Also noticed they're beating the drum alot harder re Copper Hill
> 
> ...




Understand that they have started a roadshow across Australia with the new presentation. Stock has stabilized between 4.1-4.5 on lite volume, with some firmer bids adding support.


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## Fed23 (26 May 2008)

Its broken thru 4c barrier and down to 3.7c

Can anyone explain why such a big drop in share price?


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## adamim1 (26 May 2008)

Yes, I would like to know this too.

I bought in at .04c only to see it drop to .036.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.


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## malachii (26 May 2008)

The break below 4c is a pain but still - it held in the 3.6-3.8 band and finished at 3.8c. This to me is the "do not go below" otherwise we may be looking at something in the mid 2's.  It will be interesting to see how this holds up tomorrow with no news coming out for probably another 4 weeks or so and the US being closed tonight.  Hopefully something will come of the roadshow sydneysider mentioned they are doing at the moment.

All things considered I think they held OK today - it seems that anything that didn't make a positive announcement today fell.  

My opinion anyway - FWIW.

malachii


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 May 2008)

Guys I have been on GCR at an avg of mid 3cents ie 3.5c ish, I watched it go up to 6c ish and held firm, I did not treat GCR as a trade (ie unlike CVI CTP which were just pure trades)

I am treating and have always treated GCR as a fundamentally undervalued stock awaiting a serious re-rating,

I have recalculated GCR's EV based on Legends share price, which although it has fallen somewhat still implies an 8c+ value to GCR based on Mt Isa,

I cannot understand why the mkt it valuing GCR so poorly however I will hold these until what I believe is fair value is reached 

I could be wrong though so DYOR


*Valuing Mt Isa*
*EV*
Legend current shareprice = $3 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $600m US = $670m AUD

Legend has a NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.4Bt's but 100mt's is GCR's)

*$670m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 51.5c per tonne ore @15% Phosphate 

GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

@ 51.5c/t = $51.5m 8.2c GCR*


*Conclusions *
- Based on my prefered valuation the EV *GCR is worth 8c+ on Mt Isa alone*
-GCR is one of only 4 ASX listed companies with an actual Agricultural deposit
- GCR's deposits are between 60kms-150kms from IPL's operating Phosphate Mine
- GCR's project is part of a bigger project for big brother Legend kinda like the CUL/AQA relationship, the big brother has the deep funding pockes and expertise needed to advance these projects to production allowing GCR to advance its many other projects
- Copper Hill maybe in OFFTAKE discussions which would be a very important milestone for the company
- The company has many JV's and other projects from NSW to QLD to Panama to Canada


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## juw177 (28 May 2008)

So who here has been shaken out by the break below 4c?

I picked up some as this looks like a classic shake out pattern and a whipsaw is very probably... unless the market tanks or something.


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## Fed23 (28 May 2008)

Im still hanging on, but wish it would get back up, least close close to 4c.

ARD its JV in kempfield has started drilling... hopefully that will come out with some good results in 4wks.


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## blehgg (28 May 2008)

Rarrrr -

wish I had capital to top up 

Nice little read - from last week I think...

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=53357&sn=Detail

Anyone read the site before? ~ Are they rampers?


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## Miner (28 May 2008)

blehgg said:


> Rarrrr -
> 
> wish I had capital to top up
> 
> ...




Good stuff and I believe mineweb is far more independent in their views. Nevertheless they also survive on advertisements. Looks like I missed this story and thanks

What I read the follownig in the report (sorry for spellings in rush)

_Should a potential partner be found by the last quarter of this year then more intense drilling would be undertaken to quantify a substantial measured reserve that could then lead to a bankable feasibility study._

That means - unknown factor in going ahead and could that be the reason in sp drop - lack of a partner  ? 

_He said a logical partner could be a Chinese copper metal producer and a partner could end up with a 60% project stake._

Could this question be heading us towards CYU an investment vehicle for copper resources by Chinese Government and a thinly treaded share ?

Hopefully the experts in GCR will throw more light but your posting was good.


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## malachii (29 May 2008)

Still in pre-open this morning - Mt Isa Phos farm in agreement with legend.  Be interesting to see how the market reacts - GCR will have 20% stake free carried.

Malachii


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## blehgg (29 May 2008)

blehgg said:


> Rarrrr -
> 
> wish I had capital to top up





Oh I'm kicking myself now  

Should have sold TNG  ~ GAHHHH

Wish I wasn't locked up ~ (lucky its locked up on DMM )


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## juw177 (29 May 2008)

juw177 said:


> So who here has been shaken out by the break below 4c?
> 
> I picked up some as this looks like a classic shake out pattern and a whipsaw is very probably... unless the market tanks or something.




Looks like I was right about that one. Create some fear with a few big volume sell downs, trigger some stop losses, then when the last seller sells, it the move up begins.


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## Pat (29 May 2008)

juw177 said:


> Looks like I was right about that one. Create some fear with a few big volume sell downs, trigger some stop losses, then when the last seller sells, it the move up begins.



Too true juw177, but catching that knife can cut you bad. I picked some up yesterday but am not sure if I should be holding, so I sold on open for a quick buck. Still have cold feet (thanks to VRE) when it comes to micro caps. Good luck and hope many more opportunities to buy still present themselves.


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## Fed23 (29 May 2008)

blehgg said:


> Rarrrr -
> 
> wish I had capital to top up
> 
> ...


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## adamim1 (29 May 2008)

I was almost going to sell out a few days ago. Yesterday i saw MAK RWD and GCR all go to ****..... i hold all 3. Today MAK is worse, RWD climbing back and now i'm up on GCR


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## juw177 (29 May 2008)

Pat said:


> Too true juw177, but catching that knife can cut you bad.




That is true especially when there has been no historical support in the mid 3c area. What convinced me from a technical perspective was the low volume consolidation above 4c after a high volume breakout.


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## coladuna (30 May 2008)

What are people's opinions on the announcement released today about retracting resource estimates for the phosphate project?
I was looking to get in on the action yesterday and missed it. Glad I did!
Maybe a good chance to pick these up for cheap?


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## Whiskers (30 May 2008)

coladuna said:


> What are people's opinions on the announcement released today about retracting resource estimates for the phosphate project?
> I was looking to get in on the action yesterday and missed it. Glad I did!
> Maybe a good chance to pick these up for cheap?




I think it was just some nerd in the ASX doing a bit of nit-picking. :

Kim Stanton-Cook made it abundantly clear in the quarterly report and the day before that it wasn't a JORC estimate or resource by referencing the original Qld gov source.

I doesn't change anything for me. The same amount of phosphate is still there, it's just that it's not 'officially' there until it's measured under JORC rules.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 May 2008)

Sheesh no respect for 4c support or resistance,

I thought support at 3.6c too, but recent action tells me I'm wrong

Could a techie please post up a chart with where they see support and resistance levels, as the lines I have drawn in on mine are stampeded through without any pausing


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## dubiousinfo (2 June 2008)

Legend are planning to list locally. Planned start date of mid 2010 for phosphate production.                .





> Robin Bromby | June 02, 2008
> 
> JOSEPH Gutnick is about to make a big splash back into the Australian share market, listing an already well-financed phosphate play in Queensland on the ASX after years of focusing most of his activities to the US.
> 
> ...


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## Jarrah Tree (2 June 2008)

This can only help our cause. Pitty no mention of GCR. I jumped on board Friday with a small parcel at 3.9c, bargain! 
Thanks to Young Trader and also Whiskers for your informative and well researched posts, I read through all 16 pages yesterday. Interesting that the last 8 pages of posts came in the last month alone. Plenty of interest in GCR atm and favourable ann will quickly kick things along.

Good luck all.


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## Whiskers (2 June 2008)

Well, from an amateur techie point of view, I'd have thought .042 (38.2 fib) was looking good support for the continuance of the price upwards.  

But despite the price falling a bit below that on much lower volume with the general market jitters, I am confident the Aus market will turn up in earnest shortly to finish a 5th leg up to new recent highs driven by the resources sector. 

The GCR price has also bounced off the bottom bollinger band, the stochastic has bottomed which if the trend continues should also reflect in the MACD turning up again shortly. My moving averages also suggest the price has over-corrected in the short term trend.

As for stronger support... well I guess one has lo look for .025ish.  .


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 June 2008)

dubiousinfo said:


> Legend are planning to list locally. Planned start date of mid 2010 for phosphate production.                .




I reckon thats great news for us GCR'ers as it will make the cross valuation lot easier and much more readily accepted I'd say


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## Fed23 (3 June 2008)

What a joke of day. Closed at 3.6c, total of 14trades, no news released to bring the SP down. It's just not working for GCR lately.


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## Max_ob (4 June 2008)

well well well. . . . 

3.4c finish, 800 000 shares about in last 9 trades in last 5 minutes for 35/34 c. . . . . 



how does one interpret this?

don't know why i didn't cash some profits before this stock lost all its followers. . .   ( been wanting to use this smilie for ages. . . and now that i can, it isn't as pleasurable as i thought it would be!)


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## Fed23 (4 June 2008)

This is just disappointing and it's hurting the hip pocket aswell...

I dont understand why so many have sold... it's not like all it's resources disppeared they just aint JORC.


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## Pat (4 June 2008)

Guys GCR ran 200% in less than a month. Some consolidation is not unusual. On a 6 month chart it looks like a normal retrace. We await the turn around... 2.5 cents looks to be the bottom


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## Miner (4 June 2008)

Pat said:


> Guys GCR ran 200% in less than a month. Some consolidation is not unusual. On a 6 month chart it looks like a normal retrace. We await the turn around... 2.5 cents looks to be the bottom




Thanks for your good target suggesting GCR could stabilise  at 2.5 cents

I am hoping to top some more then after buying them at about 5 cents very recently.


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## Max_ob (4 June 2008)

yep. . .  . having hit 3.4 . . . and checking the charts. . . .a defined downtrend is established if it breaks through this tomorrow, and if it does, "i think it will go all the way baby" . . . . to the mid 2's plus or minus .3 c


a bounce off 3.4 would be nice . . . we need an announcement for that i would say. . . . maybe a rumour 


hey, but then really i know little and all the above is just sharing my disappointment too. . . .


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## JTLP (4 June 2008)

3.4 cents does look to be some sort of support.

Judging from my very amatuer charting skillz...the 200 MA seems to be fairly flat, as well as the 60 MA...so maybe this is support and forming some sort of a bottom?


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## nunthewiser (5 June 2008)

heres my luckydip entry ..maybe 3.3on a quick dip , 3.4 base...will bounce from here , i do not hold and only relooked at gcr just then because your thread caught my eye , back on watchlist and maybe an entry with a low % loss on current entry points , thanks for pointing it out again


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## Pat (5 June 2008)

Miner said:


> Thanks for your good target suggesting GCR could stabilise  at 2.5 cents
> 
> I am hoping to top some more then after buying them at about 5 cents very recently.



2.5 cents is just a number on the chart. I doubt the SP will fall so low. There is still interest in the stock, judging by volume, I bet when Legend have some news GCR will be running again.

As YT said "give it a few months to play out". "Time in" not "Timing" (wish I could take my own/and others advice )


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## YOUNG_TRADER (5 June 2008)

Hmmm wel whats funny is I thought 4c would act as good support and it was brushed aside without a thought, same thing on the way back up the other day,

I didn't see 3.4c as support but now sorta do given how its not really getting sold at that level

I actually thought 3c would be supprt, arghh who knows


I know the Agri's have all sorta softened but GCR deserves more, 

Time will tell


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## Datsun Disguise (5 June 2008)

Too early to make a call on any kind if support here. If it does bounce off 3.4c tomorow then you may give it a p50 that this is the new support level, bounces off it again and maybe p70 (these are my own ideas). Charts like this always worry me somewhat - driven up by day trading - peaks sell off, the sorta believers hang on for a while longer then sell off (I think if it doesn't bounce off now it will head back down to the mid - high 2c range - then it will be true believers left and then the speculators will start to enter again.

The psychology is just as important as the fundamentals in short term scenarios, fundamentals will win in the end though.  Especially in a climate like we've got now....

I'm here for a long time or a short time so long as it's a good time!!!!

Lets see what my  is worth in a couple of weeks.


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## Datsun Disguise (5 June 2008)

Thought I'd put some thought into the chart.

The old support lines are a bit irrelevant now given the recent break out, they may re-establish themselves in a little while unless some news (GCR's or others) revs them up a bit. But what we do have is a few levels of resistance to look for on the way back up. The bearish channel (I'm not going to argue for the droopy pennant formation) is narrowing due to the highs decending quicker than the lows but not really enough points to confirm anything. 

Still a waiting game now (if you've got the patience) but if the fundamentals are good you'll all be ordering those audi brochures at some point... 

Good luck holders.

(remember to keep an eye out for the 'black swan' formation - look up the thread for an explanation)


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## Datsun Disguise (5 June 2008)

Here's the chart - didn't attach last time....

blah blah blah blah 
blah blah blah blah
100 yet?


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## Uncle Festivus (5 June 2008)

FWIW, I have an 'oscillation' level of 3.9, of which it is currently undershooting, similar to a decaying sine wave. Also the Ask/Bid volume ratio has been improving every day now from around 0.45 last week to currently 0.53 (bullish/better). A reluctance by sellers to sell past the prevailing bid today @ 3.4 as by the low volume is a good sign too? Time to sit at the bid and wait I think? Subject to the general market and further good announcements.


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## Fed23 (5 June 2008)

Are they ever going to release any info on their project in canada? From what I read in the presentations they say it ahs huge potential.

All the news has been about Mt Isa and Legend with the odd one on panama.


----------



## Fed23 (5 June 2008)

As well has anyone looked into the JV at Kempfield with ARD?

They conducted VTEM tests and come out with positive results (dont take my word for it casue I cant read or understand any of it) and Sunny Corner looked better than Kempfield.


----------



## Miner (11 June 2008)

what is happening with GCR now ?
This thread used to get postings at least ten times a day and for about 5 days there was no posting here.


----------



## Fed23 (11 June 2008)

Miner there is no news to report.

Those guys havent reported on anything, await legend drill results, trying to get it JORC, ARD drilling. Panama no idea whats happening there, no idea with canada either. Lots of projects but no news


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## Miner (11 June 2008)

Fed23 said:


> Miner there is no news to report.
> 
> Those guys havent reported on anything, await legend drill results, trying to get it JORC, ARD drilling. Panama no idea whats happening there, no idea with canada either. Lots of projects but no news




Thanks Fed23 for keeping the thread alive and let us hope "no news is a good news"  . 
The market is going to be volatile this morning with little support from overseas as well as domestic due to power crisis in WA.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (12 June 2008)

Datsun Disguise said:


> Too early to make a call on any kind if support here. If it does bounce off 3.4c tomorow then you may give it a p50 that this is the new support level, bounces off it again and maybe p70.




Looking for a bounce off 3.4c if so then support is looking ok at this level. Not sure if tracking sideways is an option for this one, either up or down.


----------



## goldmandane (16 June 2008)

GCR regains control of Mulga Tank nickel properties
Newport Exploration Ltd (TSX:NWX) (“Newport”) has withdrawn from an option agreement over the Mulga Tank nickel properties.


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## adamim1 (16 June 2008)

This announcement has not effected the share price at ALL.

Volume is ridiculously low. I wish this one would pick up.


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## Whiskers (16 June 2008)

goldmandane said:


> GCR regains control of Mulga Tank nickel properties
> Newport Exploration Ltd (TSX:NWX) (“Newport”) has withdrawn from an option agreement over the Mulga Tank nickel properties.




Might be a blessing in disguise when the nickel stockpile runs down a bit and prices pick up again, particularly if they can hit a couple of good drill holes.

They started drilling last year, but abandoned it due to the cover material being too hard for the rig they had.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 June 2008)

Looks like anohter possible project to GCR's already very strong BOW of prospective projects,

Unfortunately its Laterite and not Sulphide (I'm assuming given the grade sub 1%)

GCR now has the opportunity to explore the substantial 4.7 km x 3.2 km Minigwal Dunite (peridotite) intrusive body at Mulga Tank, which has potential to host a major nickel deposit of the Mount Keith style (517 Mt at 0.54% nickel).


----------



## Miner (17 June 2008)

Extract from Eureka Report for those who do not subscribe (please visit eurekareport.com.au for the full report and trial subscription for free is also available) 

*Phosphate and nickel plays: Tim Treadgold finds more manure than real phosphate out there*

In the world of phosphate, soaring prices for fertiliser has sparked a rush across the country, triggering the release of drilling data from booms past – and earning a belated set of warnings from stockmarket regulators that everything old is not necessarily worth what it seems.

Two high-profile phosphate hunters, Minemakers and Golden Cross Resources, have been forced by the Australian Securities Exchange to retract reports quoting old exploration data because it fails to comply with reporting code of the Joint Ore Reserves Committee (the so-called JORC-code).

In a re-run of the early stages of the uranium boom of three years ago the phosphate explorers have been so keen to tell the world *that they have their foot on an old discovery that they appear to have forgotten that the reporting rules have changed.*

It’s a sobering suggestion, but if anyone can bothered to look back at those early uranium reports *most of the companies involved have seen their share prices crash.*Last week (June 10), Minemakers was forced by the ASX to issue a correction about the classification of resources at its Wonarah project. In nutshell, the data used was old, and although there is no doubting the presence of a large resource of phosphate, it is not technically up to modern JORC-code standards. Minemakers lodged a 39-page report explaining its position, including a geological report from 1970 backing up its argument.

On the day of the correction, the Minemakers share price slumped from $1.95 to $1.72. It is now back to $2.02, still well short of the all-time high of $2.95 reached on April 18.

*Golden Cross found itself in similar hot water to Minemakers, issuing a formal retraction to “all quoted tonnages and grades of rock phosphate” at the join*t venture Mt Isa area it is exploring with the US-based Legend International, a company closely associated with Melbourne company director Joseph Gutnick.

The first report on the Mt Isa project was lodged late last year, but the formal retraction which followed a stock exchange query, was only made on May 30.

*Golden Cross and Legend plan to start re-drilling their tenements soon.*


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## Fed23 (17 June 2008)

So Legend is drilling to get the tendment to JORC standard or to see if they can find additional resources?

And when could we expect to hear about legends drill results?


----------



## adamim1 (18 June 2008)

Ahh this company is killing me. I bought at  4c.... hoping this thing takes a run soon. I'm on the verge of cutting my losses and moving on.


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## Fed23 (18 June 2008)

adamim1 said:


> Ahh this company is killing me. I bought at  4c.... hoping this thing takes a run soon. I'm on the verge of cutting my losses and moving on.




Assuming you can sell out aswell? Very little volume been turned over now, it's going to be ahrd to get out off. I wish this would take off again too. But it's just not giving anything to the market to make it bounce


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## Fed23 (19 June 2008)

Anyone got any thoughts on where this is going with respect to charts?

It's looking to be testing the 3cents mark now, if it breaks that we could be going back to 2.7cents


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2008)

I thought 3.4c would hold but alas it hasn't

I'm sitting on a loss now but am still hopeful and firm in my belief that GCR will get re-rated appropriately 

I don't know what its going to take


Agri's are the place to be, RDS just ann'd they are going for Phosphate in Brazil 

BON keep looking for it at the bottom of the ocean


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## Fed23 (19 June 2008)

It would take Legend to complete the drilling and get it back to JORC standard to start.

Then GCR to release more news on it's other projects. It's got a ton of projects in JV and no news is been report. And it's overseas project, Canada and Panama, they could do some announcements. 

And Copper Hill any updates on that with a 3rd party? 

One thing I dont like is with some many projects, GCr is no coming out with anything and it makes me think that it's waiting for it's JV partners to do the work for them


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## Pat (19 June 2008)

Fed23 said:


> One thing I dont like is with some many projects, GCr is no coming out with anything and it makes me think that it's waiting for it's JV partners to do the work for them



I know what you mean Fed, It's like being left out of the group.


I've never experianced a "bear" before and from what I see stocks don't just run anymore. All my old runners where so easy. Now there hard to find.

Seems Phos has run for the time being and the market is loving Coal and Oil...still!

Not holding but watching like a hawk!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2008)

Pat said:


> Seems Phos has run for the time being and the market is loving Coal and Oil...still!




Coal Oil CBM CSG looks like the place to be, then again people need to eat so sooner or later they will need agri companies to produce fertilizers that help grow there food so that they can eat and stay alive to drive their cars and switch on their lights (which require energy) :


----------



## blehgg (19 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Coal Oil CBM CSG looks like the place to be, then again people need to eat so sooner or later they will need agri :




Little agriculture article yesterday - 
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23879061-14334,00.html

Only been on the wading the market waters for about 4 months and I'm surprised by how fast sectors become "Hot" and "Cold".........

I came in on the tail end of agric-phos hype and now following the energy/coal/oil around... 

and reading the previous posts, there appeared to uranium, which popped well before I joined.....

Fascinating stuff..... well stress increasing anyways...


----------



## sydneysider (20 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Coal Oil CBM CSG looks like the place to be, then again people need to eat so sooner or later they will need agri companies to produce fertilizers that help grow there food so that they can eat and stay alive to drive their cars and switch on their lights (which require energy) :




GCR has been severely weak. Why? could it be that the JV with Legend effectively takes 5 years to complete. In the meantime ALL the sales will be developed and coming from Legend 100% owned properties nearby. So GCR holders may in in for a long wait.


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## Pat (20 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> ... then again people need to eat so sooner or later.



Sure do, but I don't have the capital to wait and hold. 
I would be better of in CDS... if only I had the kahunas.  



sydneysider said:


> GCR has been severely weak. Why? could it be that the JV with Legend effectively takes 5 years to complete. In the meantime ALL the sales will be developed and coming from Legend 100% owned properties nearby. So GCR holders may in in for a long wait.




GCR is still up 50% from the begining of its run so it's still holding up IMO, again, it depends on on how much you paid.

You won't have to wait for the goods, just the hype.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 June 2008)

sydneysider said:


> GCR has been severely weak. Why? could it be that the JV with Legend effectively takes 5 years to complete. In the meantime ALL the sales will be developed and coming from Legend 100% owned properties nearby. So GCR holders may in in for a long wait.




Kinda like HLX/AQA I guess, HLX is completely ignored in terms of an Fe play because its production won't come for many years in "Stage 2" of AQA's plans, so I'm guessing its the same here,


Makes you angry doesn't it, knowing that if only the idiots at head office had not JV'd this out they could started doing some exploration and we'd be 10c+ by now 

Another for the bottom draw for me


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## golfmos123 (21 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Makes you angry doesn't it, knowing that if only the idiots at head office had not JV'd this out they could started doing some exploration and we'd be 10c+ by now
> 
> Another for the bottom draw for me




YT - does this mean you have doubts about the potential re-rating of GCR??  Or are you so mad that you want to put them away and not look at them for a while??  The lack of noise from GCR is deafening.....so many projects, so many JVs, so much promise, so little noise....


----------



## sydneysider (22 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Kinda like HLX/AQA I guess, HLX is completely ignored in terms of an Fe play because its production won't come for many years in "Stage 2" of AQA's plans, so I'm guessing its the same here,
> 
> 
> Makes you angry doesn't it, knowing that if only the idiots at head office had not JV'd this out they could started doing some exploration and we'd be 10c+ by now
> ...




The whole phosphate situation with the GCR JV is rather sad. They JV'd with a company that had NO prior phosphate project development experience, which in humble terms means that they (GCR) could have done it themselves and not get caught up in a very lengthy 5 year development deal. Legend is worth over US$750 million dollars and is listing on the AMEX shortly AND is going ALL OUT to develop and sell stuff from their 100% owned projects. GCR is struggling to hold 3 cents. Legend were smart enough to promote themselves in North America AND to to commence the financing of their own 100% owned phosphate projects to the tune of $100 million. They have SO MUCH phosphates that they can afford to fully draw down most of the 5 years of the JV with GCR AFTER they have completed contracts on their own properties. 

IF GCR would have held onto their 100% of the phosphate play they could NOW be in discussions with major buyers of phosphate to develop / finance their own projects AND be following in Legend's footsteps. IMHO the market in GCR has tanked in profound dissapointment, I got out in the mid 3's in abject dissapointment, technicals look awful althou the fundamentals still look really interesting.


----------



## Miner (22 June 2008)

sydneysider said:


> The whole phosphate situation with the GCR JV is rather sad. They JV'd with a *company that had NO prior phosphate project development experience*, which in humble terms means that they (GCR) could have done it themselves and not get caught up in a very lengthy 5 year development deal. Legend is worth over US$750 million dollars and is listing on the AMEX shortly AND is going ALL OUT to develop and sell stuff from their 100% owned projects. GCR is struggling to hold 3 cents. Legend were smart enough to promote themselves in North America AND to to commence the financing of their own 100% owned phosphate projects to the tune of $100 million. They have SO MUCH phosphates that they can afford to fully draw down most of the 5 years of the JV with GCR AFTER they have completed contracts on their own properties.
> 
> IF GCR would have held onto their 100% of the phosphate play they could NOW be in discussions with major buyers of phosphate to develop / finance their own projects AND be following in Legend's footsteps. IMHO the market in GCR has tanked in profound dissapointment, I got out in the mid 3's in abject dissapointment, technicals look awful althou the fundamentals still look really interesting.





Hmm Sydney Sider 

You are really giving a whole sort of sad (could be true ) side of whole GCR postings so far.  Most of the rosy talks looked like were  to be just balloon with even  no gas but plain air ??

What I am implying  from your post that GCR should l be under the lowest drawer for at least 5 years unless it gets belly up in the mean time being run under a very poor management or some miracle happens. Apparently Legend used  GCR to their advantage. Why not as  Mr Gutnick probably there with his fertile brain, 

MY belief or no belief makes no diffeence to my investment (and few others) because I obviously did not do MYOR here

However would be interested to hear back on your comments from GCR enthusiastics so that I live in temporary happyness !!!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (22 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Kinda like HLX/AQA I guess, HLX is completely ignored in terms of an Fe play because its production won't come for many years in "Stage 2" of AQA's plans, so I'm guessing its the same here,
> 
> 
> Makes you angry doesn't it, knowing that if only the idiots at head office had not JV'd this out they could started doing some exploration and we'd be 10c+ by now
> ...




Hey Golf, I meant exactly what I said,

That had GCR not JV'd oof their projects to Legend and instead kept 100% and done some drilling etc, the mkt would have gone nuts with this

However instead it does look to be on the back burner sorta,

I still firmly believe GCR is way way too cheap when compared to Legends attributable EV however what matters more is how long will it take Mr  Market to realise this,

Hence for me GCR is a bottom draw hold until some decent value is reflected ie 10c+

p.s. Sydney I think your underestimating the potential of Legend, they seem to have a few qualified Agri boys on board


----------



## sydneysider (23 June 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Golf, I meant exactly what I said,
> 
> That had GCR not JV'd oof their projects to Legend and instead kept 100% and done some drilling etc, the mkt would have gone nuts with this
> 
> ...




U may be right, BUT they were not (in the past) involved in the phosphate process industry. They are NOW involved. I think it was a very smart move on their part to "absorb" a potential competitor via a JV.


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## juw177 (30 June 2008)

I hold this and looking at intra day charts, there is a good support at 0.028-29 which is being marked by absorption volume. Last time was at 0.041 so lets see if this holds. The XAO seems to be gearing up for a bounce which is a start.


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## solomon (3 July 2008)

juw177 said:


> I hold this and looking at intra day charts, there is a good support at 0.028-29 which is being marked by absorption volume. Last time was at 0.041 so lets see if this holds. The XAO seems to be gearing up for a bounce which is a start.




Well GCR held up today and I think that's saying something.
  ||||
( 0 0 )
    1
  ~~       had to something to fill the 100 word limit


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## Miner (4 July 2008)

solomon said:


> Well GCR held up today and I think that's saying something.
> ||||
> ( 0 0 )
> 1
> ~~       had to something to fill the 100 word limit



K

King Solomon 
  Please give me your wisdom so that I can unload my GCR bought at average price of 4.8 cents at least at 4 cents in the morning - only see red for some time


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## YOUNG_TRADER (4 July 2008)

I notice GCR's Chariman resigned today,

If he's part of the team responsible for handing over control of GCR's Phosphate projects to Legend I say good ridance


If only they had kept control, even some sampling work or the ability to do surveys etc etc and not just let the deposits lie dormant under Legends control

The value is there noo doubt, its just going to take a lot longer than I hoped for it to be reached, also the mkts aren't helping


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## solomon (4 July 2008)

Miner said:


> K
> 
> King Solomon
> Please give me your wisdom so that I can unload my GCR bought at average price of 4.8 cents at least at 4 cents in the morning - only see red for some time




Miner if only I had the great King Solomon's wisdom, but alas I'm only a cyberspace fraud by comparison. I've realised a big chunk of my loss  and am now sitting on a small parcel sitting in the 'bottom drawer'.


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## Sean K (4 July 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I notice GCR's Chariman resigned today,
> 
> If he's part of the team responsible for handing over control of GCR's Phosphate projects to Legend I say good ridance



Yep, he's probably responsible for directing their focus to Copper Hill 2 years ago and then starting to buy Uranium assets and then to sell their most likely money earner. GOOSE!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2008)

Hmmmmm some interesting Base Metals for GCR/ARD JV

"Argent Minerals Limited (ASX Code ARD) is pleased to announce the results of the initial round of drilling at its Kempfield silver-lead-zinc-barite project. The highlight of the results was:
Hole AKRC 03, 86 m @ 59.1 g/t Ag and 4.0% Combined Base Metals (CBM) from 4m, including 18m @ 88.9 g/t Ag and 8.14% CBM from 64m."


*3.72Mt@ 94.7g/t + 26.3%Barrite + 0.46%Lead + 0.70%Zinc*

Argent Minerals Limited may earn a 70% interest in the Kempfield Tenements from Golden Cross Resources Limited by spending $2.745 million by June 2013.


Unfortunately Base Metals are completely out of flavour and form given spot prices atm, so this means little for GCR, what they need to do is push Legend on the Agri front to do something


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## d_crome (29 July 2008)

Panama Drill results are out...

Initial impressions?  

Definitely a shocking market to make a good release...


----------



## ans25 (10 August 2008)

Have ppl lost interest in this one??

I thought the results were qutie good.

What are your ppl opinions on a low for GCR?

Im of the opinion that we have seen a low - dont think it can get much lower than 2c

Dirt Cheap


----------



## Whiskers (29 August 2008)

d_crome said:


> This stock sucks.
> 
> Just wanted to vent my frustrations.
> 
> Here's my 100 chars...........................




I completely understand d_crome.

I sold out, but bought back into a few lower recently, but as TH and kennas mentions above base metals and this management seems to be out of flavour atm.

But having said that I'm thinking copper will turnaround and gold continue to strengthen in the medium term, so I'm watching closely, but atm there are other oppertunities that I see moving sooner.


----------



## golfmos123 (31 August 2008)

d_crome said:


> This stock sucks.
> 
> Just wanted to vent my frustrations.





Understandable if the buy in was around the 3-4c mark.  The case for the stock was well described by YT in a number of posts, but the company needs Legend to pick up the ball and run.  Sadly can't see it happening really soon so it's hard to see GCR picking itself back up to the heady heights of 4c.   For me, a bottom drawer prospect for now........


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## Miner (1 September 2008)

Interesting GCR saga

Only a month or so it was like darling hot cake now we are all pessimistic about it
If Legend has any thing to do with it then probably not good for GCR

I understand from an analyst that some strategic decisions are now put off by Legend for more than a month. 

Hopefully GCR would be unaffected by that delay

Disclaimer : I do hold GCR


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## sydneysider (1 September 2008)

Miner said:


> Interesting GCR saga
> 
> Only a month or so it was like darling hot cake now we are all pessimistic about it
> If Legend has any thing to do with it then probably not good for GCR
> ...




Legend is busy developing its own 100% own resources which are very long life. GCR comitted a tragic error doing this JV deal. All of their other projects look marginal at best (that is for development) no reason to get interested here.


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## Whiskers (17 September 2008)

This is what I've been waiting for... putting a bit more effort into maximising the recovery rates to improve profitability.

Slides from the latest presentation to the Excellence in Mining & Exploration.

Copper recovery could increase a little, but *potentially the best factor is increasing gold recovery from 55% to 95%, ie doubling gold recovery to 1 million ozs.*


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## Uncle Festivus (17 September 2008)

Mmmm...... 1.3c today - obviously still unloved, may have another look at it again now. $10m will buy you $1B of gold, plus some other minor?? plays like phosphate. Anybody want to form a consortium for a buy out?


----------



## J.B.Nimble (18 September 2008)

[







sydneysider said:


> Legend is busy developing its own 100% own resources which are very long life. GCR comitted a tragic error doing this JV deal. All of their other projects look marginal at best (that is for development) no reason to get interested here.




I have held this opinion (on the Legend deal) off and on but I am not sure that I agree with it anymore. An 800 million dollar slurry pipeline is a big ask for any company let alone a minnow like this one. On top of that they would need a beneficiation plant (check the grades of their deposits - there is nothing for direct shipping here). Funding this was out of their league and they were wise enough to know it. 

So what were Legend looking for in the deal? Well, an 800 million dollar slurry pipeline might have something to do with it. A quick glance at the map suggests the Highland deposit is somewhat closer to the coast than the Legend project, potentially shaving many millions from the project cost. The opportunity to parallel the Century zinc slurry line might ease the way for land access issues rather than breaking virgin ground out to Lady Annie. 

If the grades at Highland prove up against the grades at Lady Annie then it would be hard to see Legend going past this as their initial development, especially as they have potential to draw GCR in for an eventual 20% share of funding of mine/infrastructure development. Legend will drill it - they would be crazy not to. Will they develop it? That depends on how good it is. Isn't that the way things should be?

In the meantime GCR get the development options explored at no cost to themselves. They waste no money chasing what may yet prove to be a short lived phosphate price spike. And, for good measure Legend effectively do a bit of free Uranium exploring for them. This deal is not as bad as everyone is making it out to be. 



Uncle Festivus said:


> Mmmm...... 1.3c today - obviously still unloved, may have another look at it again now. $10m will buy you $1B of gold, plus some other minor?? plays like phosphate. Anybody want to form a consortium for a buy out?




I'm not ready to get excited on Copper Hill just yet - the grades were not good enough for excitement in the bull market so it barely raises interest now. Low grade = high opex = marginal prospect... They have some advantages with power and rail infrastructure already in place right up to the potential mine site which will reduce reduce capex. They are obviously working hard at maximising value out from the resource to offset the higher opex. I'm guessing this one needs the copper bull to be in full swing again...

I'll hold for the Uranium...?


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## J.B.Nimble (29 October 2008)

No longer holding... but then who is?

I just noticed today that Legend have signed up a very similar looking Phosphate JV deal with near neighbour MET. Now, 800 million dollar slurry pipelines are well and truly out of the picture in the current funding environment but it looks like there is a meaningful attempt to build scale for something a little further down the track. Interesting that MET would have gone down the same path if it was such a bad deal...


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## YOUNG_TRADER (6 May 2009)

An old favourite of mine GCR looks to be in for an exciting week and month

This week ARD will upgrade the JORC Silver deposit at Kempfield, then this month the Chinese backers are reviewing Copper Hill, think JRV and what happened when the chinese backed them


Got this from the qtrly




The China National Automation Control System Corporation will review the Copper Hill project in May to assess whether to propose providing a fully integrated mill and plant for copper-gold production as concentrate or stepping up to a roaster with SX-EW (solvent extraction electrowinning) copper plate, bullion gold, acid, and calcine products. It is hoped this approach, from a single, large Chinese manufacturing company, in a competitive global environment, will result in reduced overall capital
costs.

Several multinational engineering and technology groups are also reviewing Copper Hill data with a view to assisting with feasibility studies and possibly taking an equity position. Golden Cross has received an approach from one large multinational mining company which is reviewing Copper Hill data as well as approaches from parties offering their project management, engineering and construction management services.

*Copper Hill contains a JORC compliant resource of 133 million tonnes at 0.31% copper and 0.28g/t gold containing 421,000 tonnes of copper and 1.2 million ounces of gold.*

With its flagship copper/gold project getting the ruler run over it by a few "major" mining houses times look very interesting for GCR

Its a shame its huge phosphate assets are tied up with Legend, given MAK's takeover of BON, I'm sure a JV with MAK over these projects would have been possible

Still at least they retain 100% of the Uranium rights at Mt Isa which had some interesting looking anomolies


So many projects, Chinese JV backing and funding via placements, GCR will survive and may come out of the GFC with some interesting projects on the go


----------



## bandicoot76 (6 May 2009)

I hope your right on that one Y/T... i had a punt on GCR when they hit 0.01 with the idea that if just one of their projects got off the ground then i'd be on a winner... very speculative but worth a sniff i reckon!


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## happytown (13 May 2009)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> ...
> 
> looks to be in for an exciting week and month
> 
> ...




exactly one week later and the excitement may have begun, nice end to the day, sp up approx 30% on above average volume

cheers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 May 2009)

Hey Happy 


With the large interest in URL of late I thought it interesting to look at Roseby and Copper Hill

*URL 128Mt's@ 0.68%Cu+0.06g/tAu = 880kt's Cu + 240koz's Au

GCR 133Mt's@0.31%Cu+0.28g/tAu = 420kt's Cu + 1.2Moz's Au*

*Gold is up alot more than copper, so I like the fact that although GCR's Copper grades and thus content is half that of URL's its Gold grade and thus gold contetn is about 5x as much as URL's*

On top of this they have secured Chinese backing who are lookin at funding/JVing the development of Copper Hill, they have already taken a stake in GCR at 1.2c and have agreed to provide further funding assistance


"The China National Automation Control System Corporation will review the Copper Hill project in May to assess whether to propose providing a fully integrated mill and plant for copper-gold production as concentrate or stepping up to a roaster with SX-EW (solvent extraction electrowinning) copper plate, bullion gold, acid, and calcine products. It is hoped this approach, from a single, large Chinese manufacturing company, in a competitive global environment, will result in reduced overall capital costs.
Several multinational engineering and technology groups are also reviewing Copper Hill data with a view to assisting with feasibility studies and possibly taking an equity position. Golden Cross has received an approach from one large multinational mining company which is reviewing Copper Hill data as well as approaches from parties offering their project management, engineering and construction management services."


----------



## happytown (14 May 2009)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> ...
> 
> With the large interest in URL of late I thought it interesting to look at Roseby and Copper Hill
> 
> ...




agree entirely with your assessment and comparison with url

and looking forward to several interesting anns you mention are forthcoming

copper hill looks to be a sensational opportunity with the interest it is generating

it couldn't possibly be newcrest looking over copper hill data (cadia valley is not far south from copper hill, 50Kms) - would be nice if it was though

just a little re gcr's farm-outs with ard  

as *you mentioned argent should be releasing (any day now) a resource upgrade for kempfield* bj zone which formed part of the ipo resource statement (11.3M oz Ag), which *argent itself describes will be a "significant increase"* (gcr 100%, with argent to earn 70% farm-in)

argent is set to release drill results from west wyalong within 2 weeks (previous interesctions of 19g/t Au, 100% gcr, argent to earn 70% farm-in)

argent recently began drilling at kempfield mt dudley Au (separate to bj zone above) and espects to finish in approx 1 week with results to follow shortly, with potentially "high grade shoots" (gcr 100%, with argent to earn 70% farm-in)

argent to determine drilling targets for kempfield trunkey creek shortly (trunkey creek and mt dudley have a combined strike length of over 5kms) (gcr 100%, with argent to earn 70% farm-in)

a director of spitfire resources (chritopher daws) has become a substantial holder of argent as announced over the last fortnight

cheers


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 May 2009)

Looks like it may have been a double header rather than a breakout the other day

Well patience is required especially since this Kemfield JORC upgrade is wayyy overdue now, c'mon ARD get your act together

Also wonder if the chinese arrived safe and sound to begin JV/Funding discussions


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## enigmatic (15 June 2009)

I wonder how the beijing meetings.. I havent been interested in this for a while but it just popped up, but I'm a little concerned I have missed the boat..
any thoughts


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## enigmatic (24 August 2009)

Has anyone been watching this one.

I haven't paid to much attention to this since my last post but with a 24% jump in share price, I wonder if someone knows something I don't..

Has there been much exploring going on lately.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 August 2009)

enigmatic said:


> Has anyone been watching this one.
> 
> I haven't paid to much attention to this since my last post but with a 24% jump in share price, I wonder if someone knows something I don't..
> 
> Has there been much exploring going on lately.




Yeah been watching this one for a few months now

Interestingly it is on the verge of a breakout chart wise

found some interesting stuff in the qtrly about UCG which has really peaked my interest again

Kenna any chance of a chart?


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## Sean K (28 August 2009)

Long term, 2c looked important in hindsight.

Short term breakup from 2.4 ish cents look great, on volume.

Potentially a little flag forming, but to early. If it forms up target on break up 3.5, ish.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 August 2009)

lol love the Buro Kennas! heeeeee hawwwwwwwwwww :


I see that the last time GCR poked its head above 3c in April/May 2008 it ran to 6c-7c

given there is very few peeps talking about it my guess is its something the market hasn't fully come to appreciate yet


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 August 2009)

Here's what I reckon is driving the share price

*GCR looks to have pegged UCG grounds near the 2 market leaders for UCG, CNX and LNC*

I dont think the market is fully aware of this yet but my guess is once they do become aware ie if GCR release a UCG specific announcement or something I would expect a flurry of interest


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## d_crome (29 August 2009)

Nice work YT - I hold GCR simply for the copper/gold potential, wasn't aware of their exposure to Coal as well.

Given the likelihood of gold and other base metals to rise (especially when the US $ tanks even more when they realize they won't be able to just "print" their way out of this deficit) GCR could be onto something.

I hold skeptically.

On a side note - did you get a forced one weeks "vacation" from another ASX forum site that shall remain nameless? LOL


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 August 2009)

hey D Chrome yeah dont think many know about GCR's UCG potential

Have always followed the story and liked it because of its huge Copper Gold deposit and now with Chinese backing/funding it looks like its only a matter of time before the wheels for development are set in motion

I also like the diversification 
-Phosphate
-Uranium
-IOCG
-Other Copper Gold
-Silver

Many of these projects are farmed out too reducing GCR's expenditure while keeping usually a 15%-20% free carried interest

and yeah a WTF comment got me a vacation


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## Gekko (29 August 2009)

Just running the ruler over this one over the weekend. A number of highlights look to be of interest. The Chinese thirst for raw materials is unstoppable. Any thoughts on how they will fund the copper/base metal project Copper Hill?


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## refined silver (30 August 2009)

Me too! Have always held it for the size of the Au/Cu deposit. Everything else has been a bonus. The amount of royalties it has coming in have also meant it should survive until Au really takes off. Have always held a core holding and traded parcels.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 August 2009)

Yeah Copper Hill has a very large NPV but given its low grade of Coper and Gold it will only be very profitable at a gold price of say $1000+/Oz and a Copper price of $3/lb+

Thats not to say that at current prices the project isn't profitable its just for it to be super profitable it requires higher prices, anyway the Chinese like what they see hence why they've decided to back GCR

My guess is funding for the project will only ever come from the Chinese, doubt the company would want to go down equity funding as that would be near impossible

Likewise Id hate to think they'd try and get debt funding, think it the current environment it would be near impossible


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## Gekko (31 August 2009)

What sort of dollars we talking about here to get this gold project off the ground? And whats sort of dollars are we talking about in terms of profit the grdes aren't amazing but the size is impressive?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 August 2009)

Copper Hill is big and will have a large NPV at the right commodity prices but will also have large funding requirements and hence GCR being a minnow will only be able to keep a minority stake 

However this is not what will re-rate GCR in the short term future, you have to realise that every company that has pursued UCG has been re-rated and re-rated hard


GCR slipped into their quarterly that they were pursuing UCG next to LNC and CNX 

"Queensland Coal (southeast Queensland, 165 sq km, GCR 100%, coal)
The Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines has offered Golden Cross three coal tenements in the *Chinchilla*, Warwick, and Dalby areas. Golden Cross has made a further four applications in southeast and central Queensland. These areas may have potential for Underground Coal Gasification (UCG), a well-understood technical process by which coal beds can be treated, by heating in situ, to produce syngas which can be further refined to produce fuels such as synthetic diesel. While the technical aspects of the process are well known, full scale application is in its infancy. Golden Cross intends to carry out initial test work to determine the suitability of its new areas for treatment by UCG."


My guess is that sometime soon GCR will do a follow up announcement to do with its UCG and that this will most likely catch the market off guard and on that day the stock will get re-rated so I am patiently buying and accumulating waiting for that re-rating


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 August 2009)

I saw someone asking about GCR's UCG on CNX and just so there's no confusion this is not something I've heard or am expecting or anything like that

Its something I discovered in their latest quarterly report on the bottom of page 4 and the top of page 5

http://www.goldencross.com.au/Quarter/Qtly2009/PDF/140709.pdf

here is the direct quote

"Queensland Coal (southeast Queensland, 165 sq km, GCR 100%, coal)
The Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines has offered Golden Cross three coal tenements in the Chinchilla, Warwick, and Dalby areas. Golden Cross has made a further four applications in southeast and central Queensland. These areas may have potential for Underground Coal Gasification (UCG), a well-understood technical process by which coal beds can be treated, by heating in situ, to produce syngas which can be further refined to produce fuels such as synthetic diesel. While the technical aspects of the process are well known, full scale application is in its infancy. Golden Cross intends to carry out initial test work to determine the suitability of its new areas for treatment by UCG."


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## swm79 (31 August 2009)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I saw someone asking about GCR's UCG on CNX and just so there's no confusion this is not something I've heard or am expecting or anything like that
> 
> Its something I discovered in their latest quarterly report on the bottom of page 4 and the top of page 5
> 
> ...




thanks YT... loveing your commentary on this one.

I'm holding both CNX and GCR so any upwards movements in either of them is welcomed

just wished i had have gone harder into CNX when i initially bought in.... while i think it has much more to move, i would have loved to see some more full profits from my initial entry point.

hoping GCR will get some good results from the UCG tenements they have too... like you said - the announcement and the subsequent re-rating will do wonders for this minow


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## sall123 (31 August 2009)

a lot of these miniing stock are quickly making 100% easily in one day. A great way to get a quick . But does risk outweigh reward?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 August 2009)

If you look at mot of the kind of stocks I like to back there stocks which I feel will give you a re-rating opportunity such as MAT LOD LBY LKO BUY sure there are others that are yet to move or re-rate such as MEL or WCL or BMY but I am hopeful that in time the fundamentals I see withing the stocks will offer a re-rating opportunity

For GCR I see the UCG as being the catalyst for a re-rating and whether it happens to re-rate 100% and hold for weeks or just re-rates 100% for a day it still gives us the opportunity to profit

As for risk vs reward, with Chinese backing and a whole suite of other projects and commodities I see GCR as one of the lower risk mining minnows


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## Gekko (1 September 2009)

Was just looking at GCRs history and I would assume given what they have done in the past with non core projects (read any project other than that main Copper Gold deposit) and considering  I doubt if they are skilled enough to operate UCG a farm out is probably on the cards yeah YT?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 September 2009)

Breaking out as we speak

Just hit a new high of 3.4c

Once 3.5c goes not much till 4c

I smell UCG :


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 September 2009)

Gekko said:


> Was just looking at GCRs history and I would assume given what they have done in the past with non core projects (read any project other than that main Copper Gold deposit) and considering  I doubt if they are skilled enough to operate UCG a farm out is probably on the cards yeah YT?




Sorry just saw this

Yeah I reckon farm out is definately what they will do or a JV, some say its silly but I say its smart as it keeps expenses low and allows them to be free carried with a 10%-20% interest in the project

My guess is CNX would be the most likely JV partner

even though LNC are closer (see image) CNX seem to be more pro-active ie they signed a JV with LBY for UCG, just a guess though


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 September 2009)

few buyers coming in, I reckon GCR may get a nother leg up on the back of URL's merger with VCN as URL's Roseby and GCR's Copperhill are comparable deposits




*URL 128Mt's@ 0.68%Cu+0.06g/tAu = 880kt's Cu + 240koz's Au

GCR 133Mt's@0.31%Cu+0.28g/tAu = 420kt's Cu + 1.2Moz's Au
*

IGV's using $950 US Gold $2.60 Cu and 80c AUD/USD
*
URL's IGV = $6.7B

GCR's IGV = $4.5B*

Gold is up alot more than copper, so I like the fact that although GCR's Copper grades and thus content is half that of URL's its Gold grade and thus gold content is about 5x as much as URL's"

Will wait to see what the exact details of URL's and VCN's merger is to use yardstick deposit valuation calcs


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## Gekko (3 September 2009)

Took an entry today at 3.2 and 3.1cents. Most of resource/materials sector portfolio is weighted towards Copper and Gold. Ive noticed accumulation at around 3-3.5cents, and once 3.5cents is cleared, a move to 4.5cents is likely.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 September 2009)

yeah lots of accumulation I see a nice fat capper at 3.5c who I would bet is accumulating at 3c-3.4c, watch what happens once they're done 


Also was an interesting read of the Notice of Meeting

Key parts

"If the members approve the motion to issue a further 97,560,976 shares, then HQ and its associates would hold 222,560,976 shares, or* 24.53% of the issued shares of the Company*"


The Chinese are getting a block/controlling stake and a good base to launch a takeover from by going to 25%


Also Grant Thornton who imo have no clue about mining stocks or resources *values the company at 2.8c-2.9c * x that figure by 2-4 and you might get a fair value for CopperHill alone let alone the silver, the UCG the Phosphate the Uranium


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## swm79 (3 September 2009)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> yeah lots of accumulation I see a nice fat capper at 3.5c who I would bet is accumulating at 3c-3.4c, watch what happens once they're done
> 
> 
> Also was an interesting read of the Notice of Meeting
> ...




true about GT - dont think they really have much idea. 

However, the valuations dont take the UCG projects into account at all; given that it is a "potential future project".... so add that to your x 2-4 and you might get 4-8................ i WISH!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 September 2009)

I have no doubt Grant Thornton have no clue when it comes to mining companies and resources, they are mostly a bunch of overpaid accountants who do auditing and even then they're hardly any good at that

But still if they using ultra conservative valuations came in at a figure of *2.8c-2.9c* to me *3c* looks safe buying

and yeah thats with zero value for UCG, for me this is a buy and wait for the re-rating type play as I did with MAT LKO BUY 

and IMO given what LBY and LOD have done post UCG I believe a strong re-rating will come


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## swm79 (3 September 2009)

here's hoping the testing goes well at the 3 tenements they have and that they get the go ahead for the other 4... but all of that is a long way off yet you'd think.


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## Gekko (3 September 2009)

YT looks like you were spot on with the accumlating and capping he just pulled!!! 4.5c/5c target. Copper and Gold the most attractive commodities out there


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 September 2009)

definitely agree, testing and other activities will take a long time, many months

But my point is the market is completely unaware the GCR has moved into the UCG space and as such 0 value is being given for these projects


Once an announcement is made even with a heading about UCG the market will wake up to the potential

I would suspect that they will be reviewing the historical data on the leases to see if there are any Coal estimates

Lets face it that whole area is Coal :


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## Gekko (4 September 2009)

An update on their newly picked up UCG assets would give a real boost wouldn't it YT. I'd be interested in an updated NPV of Copper Hill given the Copper move this year. It isn't the highest grading resource, but it has bulk and size on its side.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (4 September 2009)

well well well Mr Capper ie the 2M sell at 3.5c pulls and then some large buy orders appear this morning

now all we need is that UCG update and its off to the races!


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## enigmatic (4 September 2009)

Looks like this one has had a lot more attention since i was last on and gave it a mention.. This will likely get some support at 3.4c for some time until we get some news on there UCG assets, unless copperhill is the one that is pushing this and there is something we dont know.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (4 September 2009)

Anyone else seeing these monster buys?

This is the 2nd 2.5M buy I have seen today

Someone really wants some!


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## bandicoot76 (4 September 2009)

nice call on the GCR breakout YT, i originally bought into GCR 3yrs ago @ .11 and have been accumulating more in smallish parcels everytime they dipped, then really loaded up when they bottomed @ .01 in nov. i did this solely on the copper hill potential so the coal, uranium etc tenements are icing on the cake! liked your analysis on them mate... i was wondering if you'd ever cast your eye over another favourite of mine, alkane? (ALK)  i think that they will rival LYC in the rare earths game soon and i reckon the market has overlooked them... would be interested to see your opinion mate. cheers.


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## Gekko (6 September 2009)

Gekko said:


> Took an entry today at 3.2 and 3.1cents. Most of resource/materials sector portfolio is weighted towards Copper and Gold. Ive noticed accumulation at around 3-3.5cents, and once 3.5cents is cleared, a move to 4.5cents is likely.






Now the capper has pulled it looks like my earlier targets look ever the likely. Pleased to have bought in at 3.1 and 3.2. Nice accumulation bandicoot76 on the back of Copper Hill. Its size caught my eye too.


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## LeeTV (7 September 2009)

Been doing some research on this one and took a punt and got a small parcel today @ 3.1c today while the sp was down. Good volumes of late and looks to be good support at 3c. Most of the speccys I have bought in to have been doing well(BUY, MMR, GBA, UNI, CPT, BMY, CAZ) and this looks to be no acception. Good luck to all holders!


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## springhill (8 September 2009)

Yep jumped into this one today on the back of the largely unknown UGC potential. Now i think about it around 75-80% of my portfolio is UGC 
Thanks to YT for bringing this one to my attention


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## BESBS Player (22 October 2009)

Might be worth having a look at GCR if you are in to more speculative high risk/potentially high reward mining stocks.

Today's report on the ASX:

Major Drilling Programs Planned for GCR’s Australian Projects.

With ongoing support indicated by HQ Mining and the former loan funds now available for exploration, the following drilling programs will commence in the December 2009 Quarter and extend into the March 2010 Quarter.

*Planned Drilling:*
Copper Hill Exploration 14 holes 4,000 m
Burra 7 holes 1,500 m
Cargo 12 holes 3,200 m
Rast 66 AC holes 3,300 m
South Australia 5 holes 3,000 m (subject to tenement grant)
Mulga Tank 100 RAB holes 5,000 m

Importantly, no now debt, has some cash and drilling going to occur late December qtr or early 2010.

At 2.6c, this one should offer plenty of SP leverege once drilling commences. 

Holding GCR at 2.6c ave


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## enigmatic (4 November 2009)

Copper Hill is looking more and more promising, anyone have any comments about the announcement. 

At 800U$ -- 360Million Cash flow wont be to bad for a 21million market cap company..


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## prawn_86 (4 November 2009)

enigmatic said:


> Copper Hill is looking more and more promising, anyone have any comments about the announcement.
> 
> At 800U$ -- 360Million Cash flow wont be to bad for a 21million market cap company..




I only looked at the ann quickly but how do they propose to to raise the circa $300m needed for development?


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## jonojpsg (5 November 2009)

Here's some questions for you finance experts:

1. If the DCF for Copper Hill is $360m over 20 years, does that mean the project will earn on average $18m a year over that time in todays dollars?

2. Is this the free cash flow after costs, eg does this represent a "net profit" from the project to the company?

3.  If they have taken the capital cost out prior to calculating DCF, would they have assumed that the $420m cap cost was borrowed then repaid wiith interest over the 20 years or part thereof?

Just wondering if someone could clarify these for me 
Thanks


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## Miner (6 November 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Here's some questions for you finance experts:
> 
> 1. If the DCF for Copper Hill is $360m over 20 years, does that mean the project will earn on average $18m a year over that time in todays dollars?
> 
> ...




I am hoping some genuine researchers and not the rampers would come forward to assist in the above queries. 

I am holding


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## enigmatic (6 December 2009)

> Here's some questions for you finance experts:
> 
> 1. If the DCF for Copper Hill is $360m over 20 years, does that mean the project will earn on average $18m a year over that time in todays dollars?
> 
> ...




Little late replay haven't looked at GCR for some time
The Copper hill project has 1.1million oz of gold and 335,000tonnes of copper only looking at the gold and assuming a discounted price of $US800 for gold that ends up being 880-420=460million which seems to indicate an additional 100million on top of the $360million suggested. So i would have to assume that it is definitely an indicated profit.

With a Mine life of 19years this equates to about 18.4million a year profit. with the current market cap at 19million if in production GCR would have a PE of about 1.

There are however a few hurdles, which mainly come from raising the 420million capex there are obviously several methods. although it is likely that one will involve dilution. 

GCR have many other prospects which may provide means of capital. I believe HQ Mining Resources will likely provide some funding.

DYOR


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## Whiskers (7 December 2009)

enigmatic said:


> Little late replay haven't looked at GCR for some time
> The Copper hill project has 1.1million oz of gold and 335,000tonnes of copper *only looking at the gold *and assuming a discounted price of $US800 for gold that ends up being 880-420=460million which seems to indicate an additional 100million on top of the $360million suggested. So i would have to assume that it is definitely an indicated profit.
> 
> DYOR




I wonder why you did your rough calc on gold. I recall this is principally a copper deposit, with gold and more recently Fe and acid as credits. From memory the copper value is about double the gold. I believe the costings are being done on that basis also. 

Having said that I'm not sure about the apportionment of the processing costs between Cu and Au, or whether it doesn't really matter since the primary process is copper extraction. Maybe a geo can eloberate. 

I cashed out earlier at 3 cents, but am getting a bit interested in loading up again on the lows since the Cu price is over 3 USD per lb and holding pretty well.


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## enigmatic (8 December 2009)

I have little knowledge when it comes to copper currently all i know is its going for about $U7000 a ton, I have no idea what production cost are..  however I guess you make my point even more valid.


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## Fed23 (14 January 2010)

IM a bit out of the loop with this company but Im a holder. I dont get it GCR its always going into joint ventures with other companies when it gets tenders.

It has zero debt now after it issued a crapp load of shares to HQ mining. So a pro is it has a nice backer of HQ Mining. It also owns less than 20% of TGX (currently valued around 8cents). Does a 2cent share price reflect all these points?

It has projects all over the world, yet does it plan to develope any of them. Gilgunnina Range with MMG JV for example? What is happening with Copper Hill project, they keep planning to do more drills here and there? Are they ever going to dig up the copper and gold that they own?

If someone with a bit more info can give me an insight. I'm no expert here so I may have some of my claims incorrect.


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## enigmatic (14 January 2010)

Unfortunately i have no answers for you Fed23, from the outside there exposure to multiple projects and backing of HQ mining are massive plus.
However I think everyone is waiting for that announcement which will seal the deal.. what ever that will be if it does happen.

DYOR, holding short term


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## enigmatic (19 January 2010)

Looks like we got our answer straight away..

*GCR signs memorandum - CUMIC confirms financial backing*

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01030043

This is what caught my eye the most..

_Mr. David Timms, GCR's founder noted, "The potential Discounted Cash Flow of A$542 is equivalent to 59 cents per GCR share."_

Considering the share just jumped to 2.7cents.. 59cents a share is quite an upside. Please note I'm not suggesting that GCR shares are worth 59cents a share in any way.

DYOR. still hoping to get in at 2.5cents


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## Fed23 (19 January 2010)

Yay! some news on Copper hills, but I would still be happier if the would mention some dates. At least a forecast when it would commence its feasibility study.

Not beating the stock as I hold, but as a holder I would like a date. Drill will re-commence  later this month, so maybe mention study to be completed by Q1 01/11?


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## enigmatic (18 March 2010)

Has anyone been following this specy.

announcement out recently for 1 for 2 Rights issue at 1.8cents not much of a bargin at current prices. 

However some more news out about New Gold Zone today.
considering Rights issue however not seeing much gain compared to current prices other then the Free 4cent options which are attached to the Rights issue exercised March 2011.


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## enigmatic (18 March 2010)

Scratch what i said above looks like it is now definitely a bargin will have to find out how far and how long it runs but 2.5cents compared to 1.8cents is looking pretty good 

DYOR, I do hold Long term, Very small holdings.


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## wtang89 (18 March 2010)

The new gold zone find seems like a sign of the good things to come so I am waiting in anticipation. I hold a parcel and will take up the entitlements. A few more finds like this and we will be in business. Happy trading all.


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## enigmatic (22 March 2010)

Looks like more news out strengthening there position for the rights issues what timing 

*ARD: Kempfield Resources Increased to 21.2m Oz of Silver *


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## LeeTV (1 April 2010)

Well you can still buy on market for the same price as the rights issue(closes 12th April) so unless they can pull something out the hat in the next week or so I doubt many holders would take up the offer. I for one will be taking up the offer as I intend to top up at these prices anyway so the freebie options and no brokage, albeit small, is better than a kick in the teeth(unless the sp drops lower obviously).

I emailed Kim-Stanton Cook back in mid January with a few questions(he promptly replied the next day):



1) _"Diamond rig moving to Burra Copper Mine"..._
That was on the 3rd Dec, we can assume it arrived by now and started drilling as it was booked for and expected to be on site by the 2nd week in Dec, so how deep are they? Found anything?

2) _Golden Cross Resources (GCR) has completed first-pass air-core drilling over selected zones within the 2800 km² Rast tenement package south east of Cobar. Drill traverses were sited to test maghemite channels with samples taken from the channel fill, base-of-channel and basement rocks. Samples are being analysed for a range of elements including base and precious metals._
So it's been 6+ weeks where are the results?

_At Mulga Tank in Western Australia, a program of 5000 metres of air core drilling will commence next week. A series of drill traverses have been designed to test the gold, nickel and uranium ionic-leach soil anomalies defined by GCRs soil and sand sampling program over the covered Archaean greenstone sequences._
Next week was 5 weeks ago any news?

_At Copper Hill, a total of 2700 metres of RC and core drilling is planned for step-out, infill and deep drill holes beside and within the known deposit. Metallurgical test work continues with satisfactory results to date. Further improvements to both copper and gold recoveries are anticipated as grind sizes, pH and reagents are optimised._
Planned for when exactly? Next few months? Next year?



_His answers:_

1) RE: Burra Copper Mine; Drilling has been completed except for a core tail to be drilled in the next two weeks subject to the rig returning. Assays from first round are awaited.

2) RE: Rast Tenement; We have results but they have not been processed; both geologists involved are on annual leave and the results have to be matched against various levels within each hole, i.e., near-surface, channel fill, base of channel and basement. Please be aware this drilling program is a first pass, grass roots approach to test this method prior to embarking on more widespread exploration drilling in the Rast tenements. The airborne VTEM survey has not yet commenced as the contractor has been delayed.

3) RE: Mulga Tank; Drilling has been completed and assays are being matched against drill logs and will be reported when the compilation is complete

4) RE: Copper Hill; Drilling will commence at Copper Hill later this month using the rig when its finished the core tail at Burra. All drill sites have been finalised and Surface Disturbance Notices lodged with Department. Results for latest round of met testing at Metcon were received last Friday and will be reported to the market in due course.


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## enigmatic (3 November 2010)

I watch this share often and it seems like interest is picking up with GCR.
the copper hill project is an interesting prospect and I think i might have to go back and check the fundamentals of this and other projects that GCR have.

any one else following them


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## wtang89 (3 November 2010)

Heya,

It really is interesting to see larger volumes with GCR. Given that the price of gold and copper continue to see new heights, GCR will have a good few years coming up. I picked up a batch of them at the last share issuance.


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## enigmatic (22 February 2011)

Looks like i was wrong about this one still waiting on the share price to react to the the fact that the Copper Hill project has a decent deposit of copper and gold.
Copper prices steadily rising and some predictions of $US12,000 before supply and demand constraints are sorted I would of thought the new Extension of resource Grade into Wattle Hill right next door would raise more attention.

More drilling is expected at Wattle Hill, Copper Hill and Buckleys Hill over the Next 3 Months
Watching patiently for Mid year.


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## Whiskers (5 December 2011)

Quite substantial gold and copper deposit now, albeit low grade... but very low strip ratio and good position near infrastructure. Finance and mineral sale arrangements largely organised. 

My main reason for leaving them earlier was the apparent acceptance of relatively low gold and copper recovery rates and no regard to further refining and by-products. They have since been actively researching and testing higher recovery, refining and by-products

This is one project where the currently estimated returns will become much more profitable with an easing AUD over the next year or so. 

Back on my watch list for a possible re-entry.


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## finicky (18 February 2022)

Jackpot - Up over 1000% in one day!
Held only 13,801 shares after all the issuances and consolidations from 2003 when I first bought.
Sold them today after holding all that time to use as a tax loss when opportune. Bought GCR during my first phase of share investment when everything was an investment not a trade and I lost all my savings except for what I put into physical metals. The M.D of GCR said that Copperhill was a 'company maker' as he was retiring over a decade ago, f'g crook. Chinese takeway for the mob tonight.


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## Miner (18 February 2022)

finicky said:


> Jackpot - Up over 1000% in one day!
> Held only 13,801 shares after all the issuances and consolidations from 2003 when I first bought.
> Sold them today after holding all that time to use as a tax loss when opportune. Bought GCR during my first phase of share investment when everything was an investment not a trade and I lost all my savings except for what I put into physical metals. The M.D of GCR said that Copperhill was a 'company maker' as he was retiring over a decade ago, f'g crook. Chinese takeway for the mob tonight.



Good share of trust and patience to pay off. 19 years a long journey even to keep a marriage stable for many (LOL) . You did bloody well @finicky


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## finicky (18 February 2022)

Note it's only $2,800 @Miner but better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick. Was worth about $250 bucks yesterday, lol. I might shout the beers as well as the takeaway  .. wait .. I'm being delerious now.


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## Miner (18 February 2022)

finicky said:


> Note it's only $2,800 @Miner but better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick. Was worth about $250 bucks yesterday, lol. I might shout the beers as well as the takeaway  .. wait .. I'm being delerious now.



Mate
It does not matter if the total value was $50k or $2k.
It was your resilience that matters. 
Often many of us including me sell off.
I am hopeful similar miracles with SBR to happen one day


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## frugal.rock (18 February 2022)

finicky said:


> Chinese takeway for the mob tonight.



The mob has arrived.
Sweet n sour pork, beef n black bean and San chow bow please. 
Don't forget the fly lie.
😂


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## frugal.rock (18 February 2022)

finicky said:


> Was worth about $250 bucks yesterday, lol.



How much was it worth 20 years ago when you purchased and how long was it suspended for and why?
(Spanish inquisition) 😬


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## finicky (18 February 2022)

Have to be dash n dine for you frugal.rock, send me the bill .. oh wait, you don't have my address


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## frugal.rock (14 September 2022)

Still waiting for the free feed Fin..🤪

Thinly traded. Not for me these days.


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