# LNC - Linc Energy



## noirua

Interesting, recently listed company are LNC. Coal to Diesel is the name of the game and Mr Peter Bond, CEO, gives his Radio Report on "Linc Reaches Important Milestones", the Demonstration Plant and production expectations:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/LNC/1975/12526


----------



## noirua

Thunder and lightning greets you at http://www.lincenergy.com.au not sure that has anything directly to do with BBY Ltd., analysts report on Linc Energy: http://www.lincenergy.com.au/reports.html.

Appears very bullish this report, the result, well, the shares trade at 18.5 cents down from 20 cents. Was that $1.52 there somewhere. I must be missing a trick here, perhaps someone else can see the big problem, if there is one.

You'd like to learn a bit, try this: http://www.lincenergy.com.au/dvd.html


----------



## Dr Stock

crazyjimsmith likes this one too. One of his articles says sales of no-sulfur diesel at $90 a barrel on their planned production of 20,000 will result in $588 mil in annual sales.......


----------



## noirua

Dr Stock said:
			
		

> crazyjimsmith likes this one too. One of his articles says sales of no-sulfur diesel at $90 a barrel on their planned production of 20,000 will result in $588 mil in annual sales.......





This link from Aireview shows the potential of this little stock, it's one to go for on a 5 to 10 year view, but MAY trundle sideways for sometime, IMHO:  http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4455&setSUB=1


----------



## noirua

Dr Stock said:
			
		

> crazyjimsmith likes this one too. One of his articles says sales of no-sulfur diesel at $90 a barrel on their planned production of 20,000 will result in $588 mil in annual sales.......





I've got good feelings about this one despite the 4 month sideways movement, forgotten stock, well I hope it is.


----------



## nizar

You would think this one would face resistance at 19c, 20c, then 22.5c. But nope it breaks through them all in one day and doesnt even need volume or an announcement. Amazing stuff. Why the daytraders havent jumped on this one is a mystery..


----------



## pbsear

Great announcment with the Russian Alliance!  I love this stock and pleased to see it will now be on the way with its great technology and professional management.  Check out the website its worth a look.


----------



## trader

Is their CEO the son of Alan Bond ?.


----------



## nizar

trader said:
			
		

> Is their CEO the son of Alan Bond ?.




LOL doesnt that give you some confidence.


----------



## trader

It would actually, he would really have to prove himself.


----------



## noirua

We're certainly underway now on this one at 27 cents a few minutes ago. Looks close to a spike on the chart. Expecting an announcement soon.


----------



## pbsear

Speeding Ticket and reply


----------



## crazyjimsmith

Hi Guys,

I suspect the recent run here may have something to do with Eden Energy's iminent deal.

Maybe it is getting a much needed re-rating. 

Companies response to speeding ticket mentions the Russian deal but that was announced weeks ago.


----------



## trader

BBY expects their interim drilling results to be released any day now, so maybe someone knows or thinks they know that it is going to be good news.
Either way this company might just be developing at the right time.


----------



## powerkoala

is this a joke ?
after hype for 3 days...
now seller takes control and dump this
is this really worth any?


----------



## noirua

LNC are up to 28.0 cents this morning, up 1.5 cents, following the interim drilling results, which came out a few weeks ago. 

Indicated reserves of coal at Chinchilla are 300 million tonnes and are enough to supply LNC's Underground Coal Gasification plant for 30 years.


----------



## noirua

Dived out of LNC after some more thought and took profits whilst they are there. Increased cash to 85% in tricky markets.


----------



## uptrend

anyone in here are watching LNC? nice bounce today before close, possibly due to news releasing soon? 60C seems to be a very good support, does anyone know when are the next announcements due?


----------



## barney

uptrend said:


> anyone in here are watching LNC? nice bounce today before close, possibly due to news releasing soon? 60C seems to be a very good support, does anyone know when are the next announcements due?




A lot of positive media on this one recently ........... Nice rise last fiday on increased volume ............... Amazing technology when it finally gets into production ........... Certainly worth keeping an eye on ............ Sp only ever seems to go sideways or up ............ Never down much!!!

Worth checking out the website/particularly the News Links ........  
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/


----------



## mexican

uptrend said:


> anyone in here are watching LNC? nice bounce today before close, possibly due to news releasing soon? 60C seems to be a very good support, does anyone know when are the next announcements due?




Should be a announcement around Sept.
Bio diesel is the money maker, watch for contracts being signed once plant has proven itself.


----------



## barney

Bit of interest being shown in LNC again atm after another solid consolidation period ............ Increasing volume .............. Very interesting technology, and these guys appear to be in the box seat.  Cheers.


----------



## noirua

After the election result it's best to look forward and not back. Linc Energy, are amongst several stocks that look like they're worth a good look, maybe even a good bit more than that in the present environment.


----------



## Col Lector

Linc's presentation today is impressive...claims the position as Oz's most advanced Clean-coal technology company. In particular, its CTL technology - producing very clean diesel from coal at low cost, underlines why this is process is favoured by the US & Oz. The US military recently said that they were aiming to power the entire military fleet using liquids from coal (diesel,kero,naptha) within the next decade.
LNC's complementary projects also have huge potential- "bioreactors" to convert Co2 to o2 via algae; & powerstations fed via UCG (underground coal gasification). 
Linc also announced yesterday an imminent US listing to meet "latent demand" in the US by investors for exposure to LNC
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071129/pdf/3164x4vjb2x0zw.pdf


----------



## noirua

Hi Col Lector, I'm quite pleased to be back in this stock again even though the share price has not gone anywhere in the last Month or two.

The agreement with the Vietnamese Marubeni Corp looks very promising in the future.  Trading on the OTCQX ( http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/about/pr_031606.jsp ) in the US was a pleasant surprise.

Linc Energy ( LNCGY ) http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=LNCGY


----------



## mexican

Great news today, future is looking bright! Still a bit of electrical and instro work to be completed once the pilot plant is on line, so I would say there would be alot of extension leads and temp air lines running around the place.
Really looking forward to Feb. 
Be interesting to see what announcements come out of this, once plant is producing


----------



## noirua

This link shows how America, through Peabody Energy Corp, is also looking for new coal-to-gas plants and LNC in a similar sector is the one to watch out for, in the future:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/22847906/for/cnbc


----------



## grace

noirua said:


> This link shows how America, through Peabody Energy Corp, is also looking for new coal-to-gas plants and LNC in a similar sector is the one to watch out for, in the future:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/22847906/for/cnbc





Thankyou.  I hold these too.  I have some things in my diary 18/2/08 (structure complete) and 22/2/08 (commission pilot plant GTL).  Should be an exciting month for February!


----------



## mexican

noirua said:


> This link shows how America, through Peabody Energy Corp, is also looking for new coal-to-gas plants and LNC in a similar sector is the one to watch out for, in the future:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/22847906/for/cnbc




Thanks Noirua very interesting.
Have you heard anything on their jet fuel, as LNC mainly talk about diesel.
2 weeks to go!


----------



## kash

There was also an announcement in Nov that Linc was to upgrade their resources . That should change the SP also


----------



## grace

PRESS RELEASE ? FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Research Coverage Initiation: Linc Energy, Ltd. (LNCGY, US$6.72)
SAN FRANCISCO ? January 9, 2008 ? Merriman Curhan Ford & Co., an investment bank and securities
broker-dealer, and subsidiary of MCF Corporation (AMEX: MEM, Member: FINRA/SIPC), initiated coverage of
Linc Energy, Ltd. (LNCGY) at Buy.
Equity research analyst Jesse T. Herrick highlighted these themes in the research report issued today:
? Linc Energy is a development stage company deploying proprietary, low-cost Underground
Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas To Liquids (GTL) technology to produce ultra-clean diesel
fuel. Linc is currently constructing a 10 barrel-per-day (bpd) facility at its coal reserve site in
Chinchilla, Australia, with a 20,000 bpd facility in the engineering stages. We believe Linc is wellpositioned
to become a large producer of ultra-clean, high quality diesel fuel, at extremely high
margins. We are initiating coverage with a Buy rating.
? Combining UCG and GTL. Linc Energy combines Underground Coal Gasification (UCG), the
process of producing syngas underground at the site of a coal reserve, and Gas To Liquids (GTL)
technology, the refining of syngas into liquid diesel vis-୶is the Fischer-Tropsch process. The
combination of these technologies provides for a much more cost-effective approach to processing
coal into liquid fuels. With Linc?s coal ownership and current market trends for oil pricing, we
believe margins should prove to be extremely high.
? Demonstration to commercial scale. Linc Energy plans to use the UCG and GTL processes in a
demonstration project in Chinchilla, Queensland, targeted to produce 10 barrels of diesel fuel per
day (bpd) and build out a 20,000 bpd facility over the next few years. The demonstration plant
should be commissioned and operational beginning in C1Q08, with a planned commissioning of the
commercial unit expected during 2010.
? Estimates and valuation. Assuming a discount rate of 14-16% and an exit multiple of 6.0-7.0x (oil
and gas comps) once the plant reaches a full production run-rate (2015), we arrive at an NPV of
A$1.1-1.5B or A$2.0-2.6 per share. This would translate to a present value of the ADR at US$17-
23 per share from its current US$6.72 value. Alternately applying a 10.8x P/E multiple into 2015
EPS of A$0.51 gives us a 2014 stock price just shy of US$50.
600 California Street, 9th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94108
(415) 248-5600 Main
(415) 248-5690 Fax
(800) 909-7897 Trading
www.mcfco.com
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE
Members of the media can obtain a copy of this Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. research report by e-mailing
Michael Mandelbaum at michael@mandelbaummorgan.com
For More Information Contact:
Jesse T. Herrick
Vice President
415-568-3924
jherrick@mcfco.com
Michael Mandelbaum
Mandelbaum & Morgan
310-785-0810
michael@mandelbaummorgan.com


----------



## grace

Please note that this broker coverage above is on the LNCGY that trade in the US, so you need to divide by 10 to get back to ordinary shares, and convert to AUS$!


----------



## mexican

grace said:


> Please note that this broker coverage above is on the LNCGY that trade in the US, so you need to divide by 10 to get back to ordinary shares, and convert to AUS$!




Even more interesting Grace. 
Thanks.
It would be very nice if the price does go in that direction, very nice indeed.


----------



## grace

grace said:


> Thankyou.  I hold these too.  I have some things in my diary 18/2/08 (structure complete) and 22/2/08 (commission pilot plant GTL).  Should be an exciting month for February!




Nice volume coming into LNC this morning 600000 (ahead of activity this month).  Note that the date seemed to change for commissioning to Thursday 28/2/08.


----------



## grace

Fantastic news for Linc today, not only is the GTL plant on time, but they have found enough coal to run the larger scale GTL plant for

60 YEARS! at 20 000 barrels of liquid per day (diesel and jet fuel - clean) to produce 600 million barrels (and that's only from drilling to date!)

A resource of 400 million tonnes of coal (only needed 300mill for the GTL plant).

Watch out for commissioning on Friday 29th Feb!

I wanted to paste a couple of paras from the ann but don't know how, but the announcement is worth a good read!


----------



## noirua

"GTL demonstration plant on track for end of February commissioning" ...401 million tonnes resource at Chinchilla:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080218/pdf/317hgbgyv2v6tt.pdf


----------



## grace

ABC TV 7.30 report tonight had a story on Australia running out of oil.  One solution suggested was turning our coal seam gas reserves to clean fuel and crossed to Linc Energy video describing what is happening there.  Very good exposure for this one out of the report.  Mentioned commissioning this month.


----------



## joelc

grace said:


> ABC TV 7.30 report tonight had a story on Australia running out of oil.  One solution suggested was turning our coal seam gas reserves to clean fuel and crossed to Linc Energy video describing what is happening there.  Very good exposure for this one out of the report.  Mentioned commissioning this month.




Thanks for bringing this to our attention Grace!

I've found the clip your talking about under the headline 'Supply fears as oil surges' on the abc's website..

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2169087.htm


----------



## grace

Not sure if you all know this but...
SASOL in South Africa operates the world's only coal-based synthetic fuel facility.  They report that 36% of South Africa's fuel is from this process.  I investigated this after it was mentioned in the Courier Mail story on Coal Seam Gas a couple of weeks ago.

Here is the link and go down to "synthetic fuels, oil & gas".  The courier mail mentioned it was being done by SASOL....does anyone have any comments in this regard?  To my understanding Linc's process is already being done in Africa as the Courier Mail alluded to.

http://www.southafrica.info/doing_business/economy/infrastructure/energy.htm


----------



## mexican

Grace, go to LNC web site and click on Production process (CTL). From what I understand LNC does not need to process Syngas as other companies (SASOL)  usually mixed with natural gas. The UCG is a ready made mix of hydrogen and carbon monoxide.
LNC are the leaders in this type of CTL.


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> Grace, go to LNC web site and click on Production process (CTL). From what I understand LNC does not need to process Syngas as other companies (SASOL)  usually mixed with natural gas. The UCG is a ready made mix of hydrogen and carbon monoxide.
> LNC are the leaders in this type of CTL.




Is it that other processes are done at the surface, whereas linc intend to convert underground (syngas), and then the liquid is formed at surface?


----------



## mexican

Right on the money and when the process is done in that way, they have to produce Syngas, UCG you don't.


----------



## mexican

It will be interesting to see if any state or fed politians will either be there on start up or make a announcement to the media about LNC's milestone.
Exciting times ahead.


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> It will be interesting to see if any state or fed politians will either be there on start up or make a announcement to the media about LNC's milestone.
> Exciting times ahead.




I think Anna Bligh will be making herself available.  She was speaking about using gas here in QLD for power and how clean we are up here on the radio the other day (cough, cough)

Some people are concerned about the cost associated with this process.  I would imagine though, producing clean fuel will bring with it some sort of tax concession process (from the govt) where it would be at a price to encourage use.  

If they prove up GTL, watch the big guys come in.  In announcements last year, at least one player was mentioning an equity position in LINC down the track.  I don't think they will have any trouble at all finding friends to finance this.


----------



## mexican

I have heard of some big players waiting to see how the plant will go and if all goes well, contracts will be signed.
(Pub talk).
We will see in the near future if shouting those beers were worth it.
I will be watching Sapex as well as they are sitting on a very big coal deposit in SA and they have a MOU with Linc.


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> I have heard of some big players waiting to see how the plant will go and if all goes well, contracts will be signed.
> (Pub talk).
> We will see in the near future if shouting those beers were worth it.
> I will be watching Sapex as well as they are sitting on a very big coal deposit in SA and they have a MOU with Linc.




I hold both!  Let's hope it's all good news to give them both a kick along.  I read yesterday in the Courier Mail how Peter "shaken but not stirred" Bond is going to take his team out to lunch after the share price surge on Friday.  I would have thought that they may have more to celebrate by the end of this week!  Perhaps it is just one big party!


----------



## mexican

Moving a long nicely, glad I got more late last week.
It would be nice to see if LNC can stay steady in the .70's


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> Moving a long nicely, glad I got more late last week.
> It would be nice to see if LNC can stay steady in the .70's




And sapex got a speeding ticket today with "no idea" from sapex.  Suspect it could have something to do with LINC!


----------



## mexican

grace said:


> And sapex got a speeding ticket today with "no idea" from sapex.  Suspect it could have something to do with LINC!




Got to love those speeding tickets.
From what I read on Linc's last announcement P Bond will inform us on how the plants commissioning is going, does this mean Linc will be later in firing up the plant, as I know it takes a few weeks to commission a plant with no hiccups!


----------



## grace

Big day for Linc today.  I heard Peter Bond on ABC radio regional news yesterday talking about commissioning the plant (but that it was 60 year old technology).  Hope that is a positive sign.

I read that "full update on the commissioning and progress of the GTL Demo Plant on Friday 29/2/08".

That's tomorrow folks!


----------



## grace

Well, the plant will take up to 10 weeks to commission, with updates to be given along the way per ASX announcement on Friday.

Mr Peter Bond, Linc Energy’s Chief Executive said “This day has truly been the start
of something very significant for Linc Energy’s team and shareholders. The
beginning of commissioning of Australia’s first Coal to Liquids (CTL) plant and indeed
the world’s first Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to diesel facility is something
we can all be very proud of. These steps we at Linc Energy are taking here at
Chinchilla will soon reverberate in the energy markets of the world. As more and
more people begin to realise that Linc Energy has the potential to produce a very
high quality diesel and jet fuel from coal at a low cost point with a low CO2 footprint,
the potential of such a company and what it offers will become obvious to all.”


----------



## mexican

Looking very promising.
Grace GTL has been around for a while, the Germans produced GTL from coal in WW2 when there was a short fall of oil. There was need to keep producing GTL after WW2 as there was loads of cheap crude oil from the middle east.
Being a 60+ year old tech is a good thing as you can only keep on improving this process.
I would not be surprised if it does take longer than 10 weeks going by the pictures of the plant. Remember it is quite a large pilot  plant.
But all good things come to those that wait!


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> Looking very promising.
> Grace GTL has been around for a while, the Germans produced GTL from coal in WW2 when there was a short fall of oil. There was need to keep producing GTL after WW2 as there was loads of cheap crude oil from the middle east.
> Being a 60+ year old tech is a good thing as you can only keep on improving this process.
> I would not be surprised if it does take longer than 10 weeks going by the pictures of the plant. Remember it is quite a large pilot  plant.
> But all good things come to those that wait!




You can tell I am no engineer.  I thought they would just flick the switch so to speak.  I can't see why it won't work either.  Just need some patience and all will be revealed.  I was down the road at Qld Gas "Windibri" on the weekend for their big day "Drama in the Gasfields".  Didn't get the chance to catch up with the Directors though.   I had a few questions too regarding the industry.  They were kind of hanging all over the pollies, or was it the pollies hanging all over them.......


----------



## grace

Well we have gone past 4 weeks on the plant commissioning out of a total 10 weeks.

Plenty of buying now happening.  Lots of free media attention recently - all positive.  Company said they would keep us up to date with commissioning progress so perhaps an announcement is on the way??????


----------



## grace

A nice close at 97c today.  Previous high $1.05.  Only 4 weeks into the commissioning, so I hope this continues for another six weeks.


----------



## mexican

Very good article in The Australian last week.
Mr. Bond sounding very confident. A great day for LNC, but who knows what tomorrow will bring in this current market + - + -?
At least we are heading north at the moment.


----------



## noirua

I was tempted to take profits on LNC with the placement set at a low 76 cents. However, they are amongst a few Aussie stocks, including Oxiana, who have the new form of Pink Sheets quote in the States. 
Peabody could be interested somewhere down the line and this could now be thee stock to be in, sector wise that is.


----------



## grace

Resistance has been taken out at $1.05 and we are now sitting at $1.20.  Not a lot of sellers which is very very good.  Nearlly 5 weeks into commissioning - half way and still no update.  Soon.....

Graph looks pretty good..


----------



## farout

A similar UCG company to Linc Energy (LNC) is Metex Resources (MEE)... Metex is not far behind Linc in terms of development. It's interesting to see that all the current media coverage has been for Linc and very little for Metex. 

As a result, Linc's share-price has sky-rocketed and the lesser-known Metex has not moved. Don't get me wrong, Linc is a sound company, however now that Metex can be bought for less than a quarter of the price of Linc, I believe Metex holds much greater value for the investor. Metex is on sale and it can't be long before the market realises.


----------



## mexican

farout said:


> A similar UCG company to Linc Energy (LNC) is Metex Resources (MEE)... Metex is not far behind Linc in terms of development. It's interesting to see that all the current media coverage has been for Linc and very little for Metex.
> 
> As a result, Linc's share-price has sky-rocketed and the lesser-known Metex has not moved. Don't get me wrong, Linc is a sound company, however now that Metex can be bought for less than a quarter of the price of Linc, I believe Metex holds much greater value for the investor. Metex is on sale and it can't be long before the market realises.




I think you will find that there is more to LNC's share price increasing from media coverage.
MOU's
Proven UCG tech and the first in the world with this technique.
100% LNC ( not a 50% JV)
Listed on the US market
The list goes on and on. 
LNC are roughly 2 years ahead of anybody else in this type of UCG technique. (Production)
Metex does look promising, but have to prove their way of UCG (CRIP), signing of MOU's, etc before you can start comparing both companies.
Remember LNC share price was a .27 -52 week low and in my opinion  only get better and better. Not bad for us LNC investers in this current market.


----------



## farout

I think you are a little behind the times Mexican. You will find that Metex owns 100% of the technology developed by the CSIRO, they are no longer in a joint venture. In terms of UCG, Metex is using new technology just developed, Linc is using 60 year old Russian technology.

I'm also a little dumbfounded as to where you got the 2 years from as well. Metex is building a much larger trial UCG plant than Linc, and the first module is expected to be up and running in August this year. The processes used vary significantly between the two companies. You may like to do a little research.


----------



## grace

farout said:


> I think you are a little behind the times Mexican. You will find that Metex owns 100% of the technology developed by the CSIRO, they are no longer in a joint venture. In terms of UCG, Metex is using new technology just developed, Linc is using 60 year old Russian technology.
> 
> I'm also a little dumbfounded as to where you got the 2 years from as well. Metex is building a much larger trial UCG plant than Linc, and the first module is expected to be up and running in August this year. The processes used vary significantly between the two companies. You may like to do a little research.




From memory, the 2 years ahead came from a LNC ASX announcement, but I'll follow that up for you......

I have seen some publicity about Metex too while reading coverage on Linc, so not completly left out of the picture!


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> The agreement with the Vietnamese Marubeni Corp looks very promising in the future.  Trading on the OTCQX ( http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/about/pr_031606.jsp ) in the US was a pleasant surprise.
> 
> Linc Energy ( LNCGY ) http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=LNCGY



I think this Vietnamese link, combined with what should prove to be strong interest from the United States, strange how the financial scene there are loving Vietnam these days, is going to make Linc Energy a very interesting stock indeed.


----------



## mexican

Did my research and picked LNC instead of MEE.
Stand corrected on the JV, will update my information on MEE. Thanks.
Roughly 2 years ahead on GTL.


----------



## noirua

Linc Energy is a stock in a new industry and will take time to really get going. Back in 1967, I purchased stock in Woodside Lakes Entrance Oils, a gas exploration minnow in the North West Shelf of Australia. Now known as Woodside Petroleum, they are one of Australia's giants.


----------



## farout

For those following UCG developments, Linc's nemesis 'Metex' has just gained full approval to build it's commercial scale UCG plant in south-east QLD.

" Metex Resources Limited is pleased to announce that Carbon Energy Pty Ltd has now received all necessary approvals from the Minister of Mines and Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency in Queensland to progress with its demonstration trial of a standard 1 petajoule per year Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) syngas module at Bloodwood Creek in the Surat Basin, located 55km west of Dalby in the southeast Queensland.

CEPL will now proceed with the construction of the surface and underground components of what will be the world's first commercial scale, oxygen injected UCG demonstration trial. "


----------



## grace

Just having a bit of a look at the share register.  Peter Bond MD owns 62.74%of the company through Newtron Pty Ltd and the majority of these are in escrow until 10/5/08.  I'm not worried about him selling come May, but just noting his very high holding of 202.7 million shares.

Top 20 hold 77% last annual report.  Would be very difficult to take this company over - which is good imo!


----------



## farout

Yeah, I noted that as well Grace. I talked to Peter B. at the 'Linc Energy Open Day' late last year and he stated "I don't plan on selling any shares for a good 6-12 months."  So, make of that what you will. 

I bought my chunk of Linc at 22c and sold just recently, so am very happy. After doing a few sums I can see more percentage upside in other Linc-type companies. To those die-hard Linc fans out there, just remember you don't get rich by trading one company. Peter Bond is the exception


----------



## grace

Reading the Courier Mail yesterday I notice that (p73) our General Manager Justyn Peters has been following Anna Bligh around China and Tokyo.  She seems to have quite a fan club with the gasers with Richard Cottee (QLD Gas MD) joining her in India.  "goanna"!


----------



## mexican

farout said:


> Yeah, I noted that as well Grace. I talked to Peter B. at the 'Linc Energy Open Day' late last year and he stated "I don't plan on selling any shares for a good 6-12 months."  So, make of that what you will.
> 
> I bought my chunk of Linc at 22c and sold just recently, so am very happy. After doing a few sums I can see more percentage upside in other Linc-type companies. To those die-hard Linc fans out there, just remember you don't get rich by trading one company. Peter Bond is the exception




Well done, anyone making a good profit at the moment is doing very well. But I do have to ask, "Why not sell after the pilot plant fires up?"


----------



## farout

Well, I can't see Linc being up and running for a little while to honest... still a lot of work to be done out there. Lots and lots of welding etc.

Secondly, as Linc progresses I expect to see a few smaller companies pulled along for the ride. It is these somewhat smaller companies I am investing in. Greater % gains received partially as a result of Linc's good work. I am largely generalising here, but it is usually easier for a 20c company to get to 40c rather than a $1 company getting to $2.


----------



## prawn_86

farout said:


> I am largely generalising here, but it is usually easier for a 20c company to get to 40c rather than a $1 company getting to $2.




No, no, no 

If you have this view i suggest you read a few of the beginners threads, it will end up helping you in the long run.

Share price is of no consequence, its market capitalistaion you need to worry about.

IE - 1 million shares @ $1 = $1mill
      10 million shares @ 10c = $1mill

Hopes this helps, and please take it on board...


----------



## farout

Each to their own prawn... as stated, I was largely generalising. I am well aware of what you are talking about however.

The waiting game begins...


----------



## grace

Well, the big wall of sellers at $1.20 and $1.25 were both taken out today.  All my CSGers had an amazing day today!  Could it be the price of oil? or perhaps we are nearing an announcement here about the pilot plant?


----------



## grace

Actually, just thought I would post a chart...in blue sky now and not a lot of sellers in there to slow it down at this stage.


----------



## grace

Well, there are only a few sellers above $1.60, and we are up 25% today already.  Volume is good.  Chart looks good pretty strong.


----------



## eric35

Well, I only just recently became aware of LNC and bought soe at $1.13. I wonder if it is just the Vietnam deal that is pulling it along? I must have a closer look at the background of this stock, although generally I just go by technical analysis.

Good postings by all of you, thanks.


----------



## grace

eric35 said:


> Well, I only just recently became aware of LNC and bought soe at $1.13. I wonder if it is just the Vietnam deal that is pulling it along? I must have a closer look at the background of this stock, although generally I just go by technical analysis.
> 
> Good postings by all of you, thanks.




Eric, they are the majority of the way through a 10 week, coal to liquids (clean) commissioning of the pilot plant in Chinchilla.  There could be an announcement out within the next few weeks.  They are using 60 year old technology but this plant is the first in the world of its kind.  If this is proven up, you know we are running out of oil, and have plenty of stranded coal to liquify!  

Cost is in the order of $20 - $25 barrel.


----------



## eric35

Grace, this sounds interesting

Will that have a bigger impact than the Vietnam deal?

LNC moved up wll today


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> I was tempted to take profits on LNC with the placement set at a low 76 cents. However, they are amongst a few Aussie stocks, including Oxiana, who have the new form of Pink Sheets quote in the States.
> Peabody could be interested somewhere down the line and this could now be thee stock to be in, sector wise that is.



Linc Energy continue up today, more than 200% up on the 2008 low.  So far there has been no news of any likely bid for the company, but interest remains strong in the United States, and it is difficult to value in these circumstances.


----------



## mexican

Latest announcement, US conference and invester presentation is good reading. Gives a bit of a plug for SXP as well.
With the majority of experts now saying that certain bio-fuels from crops do not look economically viable for mass production, LNC look to be in a very good position.


----------



## Evangeline

Agree...presso looks great....got some of these last week before the recent sp spike and very glad i did.  Great story...unbelievable to think they could make diesel for $25 a barrel!!!


----------



## gfresh

Was a thing on the 7:30 report last night about Australia's gas reserves, should we be selling them off to overseas interests, etc. We may not have enough local reserves of oil to meet our own vehicle needs, etc. 

Towards the end, Federal Minister was saying Government is supporting several CTL and UCG ventures, and by his tone it seemed like that was their preference over natural gas. I can't help but think the LNC connection was one he was indirectly talking about. 

I'm pretty pumped by it actually after doing some research on Linc.. if this can prove viable, it will be a possible solution for Australia's vehicle needs. Maybe we no longer have to be held hostage to overseas interests, OPEC cartel, even the yanks and their politics. 

We may not have the world's largest supply of oil, but we do have the world's largest supply of coal


----------



## eric35

Sold LNC today at 1.61, nice profit. I hope it retraces a little, then I wil buy back. Fitted in well with my trading plan.


----------



## farout

Yeah, I think your entry could have been a little better  ... but as you say, if you are a long term investor things will improve later. I expect it will retrace somewhat because there ain't gonna be any diesel for a while yet.


----------



## eric35

I hope it does retrace a little, because I want to go in again. Just took some profit, waiting for the re-entry chance.


----------



## bvbfan

Sorry to reply to an old post but....



farout said:


> it is usually easier for a 20c company to get to 40c rather than a $1 company getting to $2.






prawn_86 said:


> Share price is of no consequence, its market capitalistaion you need to worry about.
> 
> IE - 1 million shares @ $1 = $1mill
> 10 million shares @ 10c = $1mill




Also you need to consider free float (that is) what's available to be traded.
If that 10million shares is owned by 5000 shareholders with say directors, institutions owning say 10% (1million shares) Then 9million can be freely traded
And the 1million shares is owned by 500 shareholders with large holders holding 500,000 the free float is very much limited and the $1 stock could move much faster due to the illiquid or limited availability of stock


----------



## farout

Yeeeharrr, Gotta love people that mis-quote and take things out of context...................


----------



## So_Cynical

gfresh said:


> Was a thing on the 7:30 report last night about Australia's gas reserves, should we be selling them off to overseas interests, etc. We may not have enough local reserves of oil to meet our own vehicle needs, etc.
> 
> Towards the end, Federal Minister was saying Government is supporting several CTL and UCG ventures, and by his tone it seemed like that was their preference over natural gas. I can't help but think the LNC connection was one he was indirectly talking about.
> 
> I'm pretty pumped by it actually after doing some research on Linc.. if this can prove viable, it will be a possible solution for Australia's vehicle needs. Maybe we no longer have to be held hostage to overseas interests, OPEC cartel, even the yanks and their politics.
> 
> We may not have the world's largest supply of oil, but we do have the world's largest supply of coal




Mate the story was about CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) and why we 
should be using it etc...having a CNG compressor running off a home 
NG gas outlet....to fill up the car cheap overnite.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_natural_gas

According to the story we have a 100 years supply of NG so why would 
fuels supplied by Linc energy be viable against that....competing in a 
non subsidized market?


----------



## michael_selway

eric35 said:


> Grace, this sounds interesting
> 
> Will that have a bigger impact than the Vietnam deal?
> 
> LNC moved up wll today




Hi this stock is not bad, it has 300 m coal reserves @ at Chincilla (QLD), 60 year mine life at 20000 barrels a day, not bad

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/linc_energy_high.wmv

thx

MS


----------



## Go Nuke

just to add my 2cents worth i was told by someone close to the company (wont say anymore) that apparently LNC is going to make an ann in the next 7 - 10 days about the conversion of coal to diesel.My family friends bought into LNC on Friday in hope of that coming ann.
But by all means this is NO CERTAINTY so do your own research!


----------



## farout

Probably another small announcement but shouldn't be pumping diesel for at least 6 weeks. I speak to Linc guys on a daily basis.


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> I think this Vietnamese link, combined with what should prove to be strong interest from the United States, strange how the financial scene there are loving Vietnam these days, is going to make Linc Energy a very interesting stock indeed.



Linc Energy are continuing to race on helped by US buying on the new market. The rise now takes the stock to quadruple the January low. One of the few stocks in Australia that point to the future for diesel supplies.


----------



## LittleMak

Has Linc recently disclosed their actual reconised coal reserves?

I read that of the 401mt, 120-150mt or so was inferred? (estimated)


----------



## Jimminy

Djayness,Mak

401m t consists of 228 indicated, 173 inferred.

300m t gives the project a life of 60 years based on 20,000 bbl/day.

Sapex jv has a resources 1.7b t.

The GTL plant is still not commissioned - Lifese contractors still on site.

Another month I reckon.


----------



## Djayness

Good to see the prospects, but unfortunately without the capital I'll have to let this one go. Looks like i merely already missed the boat with the share price as well.


----------



## grace

Own a coking coal deposit too, very handy.  They plan on drilling it up, and selling it off by the end of the year to finance the GTL plant for 20 000 barrels a day.  That means we may not need equity from the big oil companies.  Good news really.



> Linc Energy is very much focussed on becoming Australia’s and indeed a world leader in coal to liquids production of high quality diesel and jet fuels utilising Linc Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas to Liquids (GTL) process.
> 
> Subsequently a potential coking coal deposit like “Teresa” falls outside of Linc Energy’s business plan, but is still valuable to the overall business outcome.
> 
> The “Teresa” coal tenement if proven as a coking coal asset as the data suggests, will be an extremely valuable coal property which once sold will have the potential to *effectively underwrite the financing of Linc Energy’s commercial UCG/GTL facility proposed for the Chinchilla site.*”


----------



## LittleMak

Jimminy, wow you know a lot about Linc, thanks for the info!

The proposed 1.7bt of coal reserves, is that estimated also? I thought I read that they estimated about 1.7bt in vietnam? 

You were right about the delay with the GTL plant. Have you actually visited the site? Do you know someone internally?

Gotta agree with you totally that this co. is going to be huge!!! 
I'm trying to buy as much as I can (wish I never sold before.... I got in at 0.96 and jumped out at 1.65 thinking they were over inflated and about to deflate!!!damn!!! anyway I got back in at 1.79 and think i'll be adding to it as much as I can whenever I can)


----------



## grace

LittleMak said:


> The proposed 1.7bt of coal reserves, is that estimated also? I thought I read that they estimated about 1.7bt in vietnam?




Linc Energy have an MOU with sapex SXP on one or two of their tenements in SA to explore for coal to liquids.

SXP have very big areas in the SA.  They have low MC, and have a jorc of several billion tonne of coal already (not vietnam, but you never know what may come of that in the future).  I disclose owning both of these.

Cheers Grace


----------



## mexican

grace said:


> Own a coking coal deposit too, very handy.  They plan on drilling it up, and selling it off by the end of the year to finance the GTL plant for 20 000 barrels a day.  That means we may not need equity from the big oil companies.  Good news really.




Great news Grace. Looking in the right place for good quality coking coal ( Bowen Basin).
If all goes well, LNC should knock on VALE'S door, as they have been buying up big here in NQ (coal mines). Money not a issue with VALE.
BHP setting a bench mark of $300 ton for coke, LNC should have no problem selling if the deposit is a good strike.
Good article on LNC in the Resource stocks magazine MAY issue if you can get your hands on it.
Love that picture of the LNC bowser!


----------



## ColB

Hi Grace/Littlemak,  Gotta be happy with LNC, has been my best performing stock for this year (bought at 80.5c) and like you LM am actually thinking of buying more.  

Thanks for the tip and your advice Grace.  

Sometimes its hard to know when to get out and take the profit but you can't complain about doubling your money can you LM.  

Had a look at SXP Grace and have seen I missed the boat having gone from 24c to 43c in short time.  Then again it looks like its in blue sky so I might have a dip.

Grace did you get on YT's GCR and MXR train?


----------



## mexican

LittleMak said:


> Jimminy, wow you know a lot about Linc, thanks for the info!
> 
> The proposed 1.7bt of coal reserves, is that estimated also? I thought I read that they estimated about 1.7bt in vietnam?
> 
> You were right about the delay with the GTL plant. Have you actually visited the site? Do you know someone internally?
> 
> Gotta agree with you totally that this co. is going to be huge!!!
> I'm trying to buy as much as I can (wish I never sold before.... I got in at 0.96 and jumped out at 1.65 thinking they were over inflated and about to deflate!!!damn!!! anyway I got back in at 1.79 and think i'll be adding to it as much as I can whenever I can)




LittleMak
The Red River Delta has a resource of several billion tonnes of coal.
The Vietnamese consortium is hoping the project will produce enough gas to generate electricity to power between 1.5-2 million homes in Vietnam with future plans to accommodate 6 million.


----------



## avaramo

I have been debating as to adding to this thread, not much good can come from it. My guess is that LNC has got a lot of potential, hence why I am yet to sell (I bought at $0.175).  Congrats to those sitting on this little rocket.


----------



## grace

avaramo said:


> I have been debating as to adding to this thread, not much good can come from it. My guess is that LNC has got a lot of potential, hence why I am yet to sell (I bought at $0.175).  Congrats to those sitting on this little rocket.[/QUOTE
> 
> Well done!  Have traded this a few times between 80c and $1.00, then my last purchase at 80c I've held for fear of being left without holding.  Seems most have been hanging on too, thus the big price rise.  The chart looks good.


----------



## coulstock

Can anyone explain the jump so far today? Couple of announcements last couple of days but nothing earth shattering. I was expecting a steady hold around 2.00 for the next couple of months but evidently this is more of a bolter than I expected (bought at 1.75)

Rob


----------



## Jimminy

coulstock said:


> Can anyone explain the jump so far today? Couple of announcements last couple of days but nothing earth shattering. I was expecting a steady hold around 2.00 for the next couple of months but evidently this is more of a bolter than I expected (bought at 1.75)
> 
> Rob




Good report announced - see the announcements on UCG and potential.

This thing is rocketing - woo hoo!!

If oil continues to spiral towards $200/bbl then watch out.


----------



## noirua

Risen by nearly fivefold since January 2008, and now amongst the Aussie top performers.  The USA Roadshow and PWC's review have been helpful, and the USA affect may continue for sometime yet. Are LNC cheap or expensive, nay matters, it's in the right place at the right time.


----------



## avaramo

It looks like LNC is in for another big day.  Does anyone know anything about WCL WESTSIDE CORPORATION?  I am thinking of jumping on that before it takes off...any thoughts?


----------



## noirua

"Linc Energy Achieves Major Milestone":  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080513/pdf/3192zzzkm²x549.pdf


----------



## mexican

I have a feeling that something big is in the wind. Something to do with the USA.
A lot of interest in LNC in the States.
Keep rolling those announcements out  Linc!
Getting close to the  $3 mark .


----------



## mexican

LNC really towing the line for other UCG's at the moment.
Some making pretty good ground, but only for a short while. Then you would think that they will have to do their own ground work for more gains.
I really don't think the Big Gun's are going to sit on their hands and not have the slice of the pie!
It won't happen straight away but I think it will happen in time.
LNC look safe in that department.


----------



## Jimminy

mexican said:


> I really don't think the Big Gun's are going to sit on their hands and not have the slice of the pie!
> It won't happen straight away but I think it will happen in time.
> LNC look safe in that department.




Too right - Peter Bond won't be selling his controlling stake for many moons.

Bit like Twiggy with Fortescue I think. Peter will have watched what happened there and make a note.


----------



## LittleMak

Wow it seem shard to pick who is really going to take off and be successful here (maybe they all will be)

We have Linc who has the 'so far' realized largest coal deposits for it demonstration plant and production in AUS and seems to be the best at advertising this technology to the market.

We have MEE who has teamed up with the CSIRO and supposedly has newer and better technology than linc but a much smaller realized coal deposit (possibly more to come)

And Cougar who has teamed up with the Canada's Syntroleum the world leaders in certain technology with UCG and GTL.

So if you guys had $15-$20k to invest, who would you go for? 
Maybe a dive into all them? 
Who do you see as being the best value, the possibility to out shine the most?
Basically who seems to be the top company and why?


*(disclaimer:any info is not taken a s a recommendation to buy or sell)


----------



## Wazandy

3.00 a share. Wow.

Shame I didn't get it on that one.

Still, there's a lot of interest in the stock, but they haven't actually started producing yet.

Reckon there's legs in this one? I've got about 40,000 to invest. I reckon 4-5 over the next few months...


----------



## noirua

Seeing my holding more than quadruple in value I was tempted to sell and decided that $3.18 - $3.20 was a good time to bail out.  Hope Linc continues on up and you all make your fortunes - good luck


----------



## avaramo

I am no financial expert but with 2 announcements on the way, selling might seem silly.

1) If "Teresa" proves to be what LINC hopes, LINC thinks its sale could finance the UCG/GTL commercial plant, we are talking about a find of AUD$600million.  My simple brain says that this should send the stock price up a little.

2) The hype that will be generated once the LINC bowser starts dispensing diesel should see the stock price do some crazy things.

No guarantee of success on either of the above points, but I am sticking around until I see the outcome.


----------



## Evangeline

agree avaramo...if the demo works there will probably be some great publicity which will have a very positive effect on the sp, and the money from teresa to raise cash for the plant will be brilliant...i can't help but feel this has a ways to go yet


----------



## LittleMak

Another BUY recommendation this time from Analyst Merriman Curhan Ford and Co. (published in America)

Also another BUY recommendation again from BBY.

2 this month. awesome!!!


----------



## grace

Time to take a look at the chart again.  It looks to be doing all of the right things.  Can't complain yet!


----------



## farout

*farout*

Provided you've invested in another quality stock I think you may have jumped at a good time noirua. I think there will probably be a dip within the next week. A buying opportunity for some.


----------



## grace

A bit more media coverage can't hurt of course, from the Courier Mail today.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-63.pdf

I wonder if some sold out of Linc today to climb aboard one of the others mentioned?


----------



## mick2006

hi grace, I think you are right it looked like money started flowing out of LNC into MEE today.  

Won't be long before the third force in the UCG space CXY starts seeing money flow its way.


----------



## farout

woops..


----------



## farout

For those looking for a new Linc type company, GLX is still quite an unknown. They are looking at doing a Linc style with both UCG and gas to liquid components. Still flying under the radar and worth a good look. Should have a JORC report in the coming months. I disclose holdings, after buying in this morning.


----------



## LittleMak

got this off the Linc website

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-64.pdf

good write up for LNC and MEE. (actually the whole UCG-GTL sector).


----------



## Jimminy

great ann out - MOU to enter Chinese market.

This is a small sign of what will occur over the next decade with this co. - other companies need Linc's technology. JVs to pop up all over the place!


----------



## grace

A bit of extra news on the vietnamese deal.  Linc seem very confident that this pilot plant will work, going on their wheeling and dealing!



> Qld's energy to recieve Chinese and Vietnamese Linc
> Wednesday 28 May 2008
> Queensland Smart State company Linc Energy Ltd will partner with Vietnamese and Japanese companies in an Underground Coal Gasification project in northern Vietnam.
> 
> A Memorandum of Understanding between Linc Energy, Vietnamese company Vinacomin, and their Japanese partner Marubeni was signed yesterday in the presence of Queensland Minister for Trade John Mickel and the Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung.
> 
> This is the second announcement Linc has made to shareholders this week, after confirming another MOU had been signed with Chinese Huadian Coal Industry Group to expand into the region.
> 
> As part of the agreement Vinacomin will invest US$5 million into Linc Energy and Linc will also be paid by the consortium to undertake stage 1 of the project, a trial Underground Coal Gasification field in the Red River Delta.
> 
> "Stage one of the project is to demonstrate that the coal deposit in the Red River Delta in northern Vietnam is suitable for Underground Coal Gasification," says Mickel.
> 
> *"To put this project in perspective, it is expected to produce enough underground coal gas to generate electricity to power between 1.5 and two million homes in Vietnam. Eventually the plans are that it will power up to six million Vietnam homes with cleaner energy.*"When the gas is burned, it produces a lower yield of carbon dioxide per unit of energy compared with coal.
> 
> "This means that Linc Energy, which is already a world leader in underground coal gasification with projects in Queensland, along with Marubeni and their Vietnamese partner, will be delivering energy and significant environmental benefits to the people of northern Vietnam."
> 
> Underground coal gasification, or UCG, is a term used to describe a process whereby difficult-tomine coal deposits can be turned into a gas for energy generation, or further refined to produce a diesel fuel. Both products are environmentally more sustainable than their comparable more traditional coal products.


----------



## grace

Linc's chart looking slightly bullish again today, with the sell side again starting to fade.  Very large volume today!

Hopefully, $3.00 should hold as new resistance.


----------



## avaramo

Even alleged crime bosses like Linc shares.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23785992-661,00.html

Is this good publicity or bad publicity for LNC?


----------



## farout

Not very many posts in this thread of late. Linc now hovering at the $4 mark.

I'm guessing quite a few forum members have sold out for the large profits on offer? Big gains still to come in my opinion, even though I have sold my remaining portion. I know a couple of junior Linc employees who received 150,000 options on joining the company 6 months ago. Should make them instant millionaires when they are able to convert their options in a year.

Just my view on things; While Linc should continue strong, from here on in I expect larger percentage gains in new coal-to-liquid companies like GLX.


----------



## grace

farout said:


> Not very many posts in this thread of late. Linc now hovering at the $4 mark.
> 
> I'm guessing quite a few forum members have sold out for the large profits on offer?




I am one of the faithful still with my original holding....by the way, where are you Mexican????

Rumour that Mr Bond is heading out to Chinchilla next week for a bit of media attention.  Could this be the moment I have been waiting for????


----------



## farout

Congrats Grace, able to hold during the highs and lows. Linc's coal is expected to be fired up on June 30, unless there is some unexpected delay.


----------



## Mickel

Hi Grace and Farout

Thanks for your posts. I am a recent convert of about 2 months.

I agree that there is great potential for further sp rises when the diesel flows (hopefully this month) and then when Emerald coal find is quantified (before Christmas) particularily as the stock is tightly held (Bond holding over 60%).

I hope to hold on for the long term and agree with a previous post that Linc is similar to Woodside circa 1967.

LNC finished at $4.12 today.


----------



## mexican

grace said:


> I am one of the faithful still with my original holding....by the way, where are you Mexican????
> 
> Rumour that Mr Bond is heading out to Chinchilla next week for a bit of media attention.  Could this be the moment I have been waiting for????




Grace, I have been holding, kicking back and enjoying the ride. Still more to come. Just waiting for the announcements after LNC has fired up and then we will see how big a player they will be!!!!!! BIG!!!
Great to see all UCG faithful's doing very well
Hold on to your hats, the next month is going to be good for all.


----------



## avaramo

One of the barriers to this technology being adopted is the environmental impact.  There are many environmentalists expressing their concern about UCG and CTL.  I will be interested to see what the Biocleancoal company http://www.biocleancoal.com/ (60% owned by Linc) can do to alleviate any concerns.


----------



## awg

announcement re trading halt.

have experieced 90%+ return since buying in on May 6th at $2.05.

havnt had a very happy experience of trading halts recently

lets hope this one comes out with a further blast up

any ideas

tony


----------



## Dukey

awg said:


> announcement re trading halt.
> 
> have experieced 90%+ return since buying in on May 6th at $2.05.
> 
> havnt had a very happy experience of trading halts recently
> 
> lets hope this one comes out with a further blast up
> 
> any ideas
> 
> tony




Given that SXP and LNC both went into trading halts re 'a merger' at the same time .... and they already have strong links - its a fair chance they plan to merge.  Should be good for both long term IMO - 

(holding sxpo)


----------



## awg

LNC was at No 214 on the ASX by size on Friday.

with the SP rise + Sapex, will for certain rise into ASX200.

can only be good for SP, with big instos needing some

only wish i had more of the buggers

or Sapex as well, damm near bought em a few days ago but 25% up on the day made me a little cautious..oh well

priced has leapt from 4.50 to 4.90 as i type!


----------



## mexican

Well, it should not be long now. 
With exposure to the US one of the biggest fuel users, it is going to be very interesting what deals come out when the plant fires up.
The US military looking at blending 50/50 fuels (fuel from coal/ fuel from crude oil) for all their military  machinery in the next 10 years, aviation using 80% of the military budget and cutting back import costs which majority is from crude oil and by doing this using alternative fuels, this could be very promising for Linc.
We will have to wait and see, so far Lincs business plan has been flawless.
The merg with SXP has great potential for a massive deposit and selling other assets of SXP's  that Linc do not need to fund GTL projects, it seems a very clever move.
Bring on the diesel and jet fuel!


----------



## grace

Speaking of lighting up the coal, there is a bit being lit up tonight on sixty minutes.....at 7.30pm on 9.  Might be worth a look.....wouldn't it be nice if Linc's plant was on film.  I don't normally watch this show, but I might have to tonight...


----------



## mexican

Grace, you are doing very well on the UCG sector at the moment. Well done
Our patience with Linc's plant will be rewarded very soon, not to say that I am complaining at the moment, far from it!
Good article in the Courier mail last week. Mr Bond will be up there with Twiggy very soon and tend to agree with him, that Linc will be in another league once the plant goes to a commercial scale.


----------



## So_Cynical

grace said:


> Speaking of lighting up the coal, there is a bit being lit up tonight on sixty minutes.....at 7.30pm on 9.  Might be worth a look.....wouldn't it be nice if Linc's plant was on film.  I don't normally watch this show, but I might have to tonight...




Grace the story was about Aussie Shale oil and Canadian Oil sands, nothing to do 
with LNC...while gooling the subject i did find a south African company that has 
an industrial process the turns coal into oil....been doin it for years.


----------



## mexican

Sasol produce 37% of their total use of fuel from coal.



Different GTL process compared to Linc's.


----------



## grace

So_Cynical said:


> Grace the story was about Aussie Shale oil and Canadian Oil sands, nothing to do
> with LNC...while gooling the subject i did find a south African company that has
> an industrial process the turns coal into oil....been doin it for years.




Yep, got that wrong.  They said that oil shale was Austalia's solution to running out of oil.  Hope so, I've been sitting on GRV which holds one of Australia's largest deposits (MC $10million, with 11 billion barrels of oil...if they can get it out).  Trial mining was to start this qtr, but haven't heard anything yet.  I'm holding these, just in case my grandchildren (and that's a long way away) might benefit......Sorry, should be on GRV  but I don't think it has a thread.


----------



## grace

BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP.  Looks like they like the idea.  Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.  

Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10

Here is the link

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf


----------



## mexican

grace said:


> BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP.  Looks like they like the idea.  Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.
> 
> Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10
> 
> Here is the link
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf




Well Grace, I can't see us paying $65/barrel again!


As Bond said, " you get more bang for your buck" in regards to GTL!


----------



## Mickel

grace said:


> BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP.  Looks like they like the idea.  Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.
> 
> Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10
> 
> Here is the link
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf




Two points on these DCF valuations-

1. The barrel of oil price is in USD and is converted at 0.70 . This is more attractive than if it was, say 0.90 (eg $65 is $92.86 compared to $72.22)

2. The valuations take "a conservative $100m value" of the Emerald coal deposit in considering the CAPEX of $850m on a 70/30 debt/equity basis.

I'd like to see a DCF valuation based on oil at USD 90 pb converted at .80 (ie AUD 112.5) with the Emerald coal deposit valued variously at $100m, $200m, $300m, $400m, and $500m . I think these numbers are more appropriate in the current and medium term future.

Any comments ?


----------



## Evangeline

sp took quite a pounding on friday...any thoughts why?

grace.....would you mind having a crack at interpreting the lnc chart atm?....where would you say support lines are?

thanks


----------



## grace

Evangeline said:


> sp took quite a pounding on friday...any thoughts why?
> 
> grace.....would you mind having a crack at interpreting the lnc chart atm?....where would you say support lines are?
> 
> thanks




Happy to have a go Evangeline.  On Friday touched support at about $3.30 mark, and bounced off.  If that doesn't hold, I see stronger support at $3.00  Of course, technical will go out the window if the pilot kicks off on 30/6/08 without a hitch! We should see new highs if all goes well.

Sorry, my virus software won't let me post a chart at the moment.


----------



## Evangeline

thanks heaps for that grace....i'm no chartist but have great respect for ta...in the absence of news that is.....fingers crossed for a firm date for the pilot plant test 

was heartened to see the bounce off $3.30 myself...hopefully we'll be able to hold $3 even in the gloomy market conditions atm!


----------



## LittleMak

Latest BBY Research 19 may 2008

Recommendation: BUY
DCF Valuation - $6.44/sh
12 month share price target - $5.50/sh


In line with the revised oil price assumptions released today, we will be updating our financial model for Linc Energy (LNC). Our long term oil price assumption is now US$75/bbl
(prev US$65/bbl).

Not changing any other assumptions as per our previous note on LNC (12 June 2008), our DCF valuation for Chinchilla only increases to A$6.40/sh. We leave our price target at
A$5.50/sh until successful commissioning of the pilot plant in Chinchilla is announced.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-15.pdf


Enjoy the coming good times Shareholders!!!

LM


----------



## awg

has gone into trading halt.

I cashed in on Friday, trying to protect profits, probably a bad move.

will see what announcement brings

tony


----------



## Dukey

awg said:


> has gone into trading halt.
> 
> I cashed in on Friday, trying to protect profits, probably a bad move.
> 
> will see what announcement brings
> 
> tony




Mmm very interesting... I missed the big fall on friday - offline - but intrigueing why LNC would fall so suddenly at this stage.   Possibly something to do with SXP t/o  - maybe a discounted fund raising or something?

dunno - any ideas out there?

(hold sxpo)
-dukey


----------



## Wigspotter

LittleMak said:


> Latest BBY Research 19 may 2008
> 
> Recommendation: BUY
> DCF Valuation - $6.44/sh
> 12 month share price target - $5.50/sh
> 
> 
> In line with the revised oil price assumptions released today, we will be updating our financial model for Linc Energy (LNC). Our long term oil price assumption is now US$75/bbl
> (prev US$65/bbl).
> 
> Not changing any other assumptions as per our previous note on LNC (12 June 2008), our DCF valuation for Chinchilla only increases to A$6.40/sh. We leave our price target at
> A$5.50/sh until successful commissioning of the pilot plant in Chinchilla is announced.
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-15.pdf
> 
> 
> Enjoy the coming good times Shareholders!!!
> 
> LM




Does anyone know if they've hedged any of their future output?  It would be a bit of a drag to find out they can't take advantage of these prices.

Cheers, 

C


----------



## urgalzmine

It could be some problems with their Chinchilla plant.

You could see it as insiders selling on the friday thats why the big drop.


----------



## The Dealer

Just joined the forum. Have watched ever since being given the heads up on this stock at 1.80.
I have been buying steadily over that time. I was on a buying spree on Thursday coming up to the announcement (plant running using proven technology)and my broker told me that no one is selling and he can't keep watching for the 150 here and 200 there. So I canned it!
So I returned on Friday. The most I could buy in one hit was 11000 and then 5000. The rest were 389, 200, 150 etc. Again I aint buying small blocks for fees chew up profit.
So the fall in price I would say was from a lack of buyers and not people selling out in mass. As when I took some of the larger chunks that came up (probably people taking profit for tax time to offset loses), the people selling the small amounts were trying to sell and not getting bites so they kept lowering their price (I kept over looking them and my broker would tell me that there is a chunk 5 down on the list was 5000 at $4.25). Simply as the volume is too low when it is a parcel of 100 shares to pay a broker fee etc.  Therefore the price keeps dropping until someone buys. If you look at the turnover. The amount is very small. I paid on average $4.25 with some parcels being 3.80 on 1000 shares. Better to buy the parcel on 11000 and have one fee and hold them like the directors as they will be worth more in the future. The 3.70 now is cause someone bought the 100 parcel at 3.70. I could sell 100 Wednesday at $5 and that's the new price that it finishes on for the day and looks like a good paper profit. But will someone pay 5 if I sell a parcel of 20000? So I sit back and pick up parcels of 5000 etc of people who sell off for tax. They are then trying to buy them back and can't cause no one is selling big chunks.


----------



## TheAbyss

TD, as i understand it, if you put in an order for 11000 shares you will get all shares along the way at one brokerage fee not a fee per block.

This is how if you put in an order for 10000 units at 3.90 you end up with odd average buy per unit price if there are sellers between the current price and your max buy price per share ie 550 at 3.88, 3500 at 3.89 and 5950 at 3.90 will give you an average sp of 3.894 ish.

Not well explianed but you should see th point. Either way you only pay one brokerage irrespective of how many sellers you chew through to get your required quantity.


----------



## The Dealer

TA - Not through MPW. I am on the phone and my broker can tell me what's on offer. A block of 11000 at 4.34 etc. He will put in 11000 at 4.34 and presto they say yes, I say take them, it happens. I don't use a etrade or such and put in an order. If I put in an order through MPW and say buy 20000that happens and yes I get exactly what you said an average. That is what happened on Thursday and he got the *&*& with  it as he had to watch all day. Then we decided to do it the other way on Friday.


----------



## TheAbyss

Each to their own TD. The alternative to sitting on the phone with your broker and receiving someone else's opinion and interpretation is opening your own online account and be your own broker.

One costs less, is immediate, will sit there watching and automaically place buy sell orders as supporting buys, rising buys/sells etc and can be relied on to act when you are ready.

The other one charges higher fees, is going to give you their opinion and is open to outside influences.

Just my opininon and yes i know there are good and bad brokers and there are also good and bad investors. Each to their own, enjoy.


----------



## grace

Placement at $3.70 and getting close now to making fuel.  No date given, but it can't be far away.  No bad news mentioned anyway.



> Linc Energy’s flagship project is the UCG and GTL demonstration plant at Chinchilla, Queensland. Linc Energy is pleased to advise that the GTL demonstration plant has now progressed to a point where it is about to enter the final phase of commissioning. This next stage of commissioning is focussed upon the UCG gas being fed into the key units of the GTL demonstration plant for liquids (Diesel) to be produced.


----------



## awg

Isnt it a truely amazing the coincidence that it closed on friday at exactly the placement price.

Insiders must be all over this one, dont know how tightly the stock is held by the management and other close associates, but I expect the % must be very high.

tony


----------



## The Dealer

AWG that's what I have been trying to tell you. There is no one selling these shares at present. Once it hits top 200 there will be more turnover. At present Maquarie and the like can't rec these to anyone.

PS - TA it is my job to be on the phone to the broker for my clients. So every now and then I want to make some money too.


----------



## LittleMak

Guys, don't start rumours about management and the share drop to $3.70 last friday and the market placement @ $3.70.

If you read the announcement, The placement was at $3.70 because thats what the last market close was at on friday. If the market closed at $3.90 or $4.00 thats what the placements would of been at.


From announcement:
Linc Energy Limited (ASX:LNC) announced today that it had raised AU$100m via a placement of approximately 27 million fully paid ordinary shares to institutional and sophisticated investors at $3.70 per share, which was priced at market, based on the Linc Energy stock price close of last Friday 20th June 2008. 


Cheers

LM


----------



## ColB

Hey LittleMak, you don't work for LNC?  

Tony (AWG) has a pretty valid point regarding the timing of the SP in regard to a placement of 27 Million shares.  

Now I might be a little cynical (perhaps like Tony) but if the share price were forced down by 'interested parties' those buying a placement of 27 million shares stood to save a considerable amount of money.  

Its one thing for the SP to retreat a little given its outstanding run but 15% plus retracement appears overdone. 

Its chart would show support around $4 to $4.20 not $3.70  

Anyway, can't complain it done quite a few of us quite nicely.  

It'll be interesting to see the SP on the day the plant starts producing liquid gold!!  [Regards ColB]


----------



## The Dealer

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-14.pdf

This will tell you who the top 84% of shareholders are. They aren't selling.
Just looked at trade volumes for today. Couple of 20000 and 10000. Buyers of 56000 (286000 turnover for day so far). If you sell as an individual I reckon the bigs are buying yours back to strengthen price of long term.


----------



## Mickel

TD In the interests of accuracy I list below the latest top 20 shareholders from the 2007 annual report ( available on the Linc website). 

Your list was at the 12 March 2007. As you can see it has changed a bit with the top 20 dropping from 84.87% to 77.36%. 

No doubt the list to be published in the 2008 annual report will change again. It will be interesting to see if the top 20 drops further from 77%.

The shareholder information set out below was applicable as at 30 June 2007.
A. Distribution of equity securities
Analysis of numbers of equity security holders by size of holding:
Ordinary shares
Shares                                                     Options
1 ‑ 1,000                         43,635                  -
1,001 ‑ 5,000               1,739,227                  -
5,001 - 10,000             4,656,391                  -
10,001 - 100,000        37,495,438                  -
100,001 and over      277,325,692         1,000,000
B. Eq uity security holders
Twenty largest quoted equity security holders
The names of the twenty largest holders of quoted equity securities are listed below:
Name Ordinary shares
Number held
Percentage of
issued shares
Newtron Pty Limited                                    201,557,383              62.74%
HSBC Custody Nominees                                  9,244,737               2.88%
Steven Fierro                                                 6,000,000               1.87%
W K Prospecting Pty Limited                              5,120,000               1.59%
Impala Fund LP                                               2,899,000               0.90%
Mark Tomkins                                                 2,500,000               0.78%
Impala Fund Ltd                                              2,470,000               0.77%
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited          2,387,524               0.74%
Perpetual Custodians Limited                             2,280,382               0.71%
Transpacific Capital Pty Ltd                              2,000,000                0.62%
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited-A/C 2 1,722,785               0.54%
Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited                            1,432,000               0.45%
ANZ Nominees Limited                                      1,387,400               0.43%
Shearwater Pty Ltd                                         1,300,000               0.40%
Ergo Exergy Technologies Inc                            1,230,000               0.38%
Isny Pty Limited                                              1,200,000               0.37%
Perpetual Trustees                                          1,185,648               0.37%
Douglas Joseph Fierro                                       1,000,000               0.31%
Mrs Jadwiga Janowski + Mr Marek Janowski             967,000               0.30%
Van De Velde Consulting Group                             660,000               0.21%

                                                                248,543,859              77.36%


----------



## grace

Thought I would post a chart to see how the beast is holding up.  Looks to have found new resistance at $3.70 which is the recent capital raising price (which really is in the middle of nowhere as far as the chart is concerned).

Good news about the full commissioning could help the rest of the camp along eg metex, cougar, etc.  Bad news might........better not say it out loud.


----------



## basilio

Is there any good reason to think the plant won't be commissioned as per expectations? LINC seems to have a satisfactory history of achieving its results.


----------



## Calliope

The lemmings are on the move.They will not be missed. As far as I can see this stock should be resilient to the general market movements. I bought LNC
at 71c and have had a volatile ride but the trend is always upwards.


----------



## jast28

Some great news:

CHINCHILLA PILOT BURN PROJECT
Linc Energy was granted an Exploration Permit for Coal at Chinchilla, Queensland - Australia in December 1998 and commenced work on site in July 1999. Gas was first produced on Boxing Day of the same year. After more than two years of producing gas, Linc was able to prove complete control of the process and environmental stability.

The success of this operation, places it above all other similar developments around the world.

"The process of UCG appears to be technically feasible with no technical barriers being identified at this stage. With a high availability of product gas over two years, the Chinchilla UCG trial is the longest and largest gasification trial in the Western world." Shedden Uhde's technical report, November 2005.

"The Chinchilla UCG project, has demonstrated that the UCG process can be operated without uncontrolled impacts on groundwater.", Golder Associates' environmental report, December 2005.

"The UCG operation in Chinchilla is by far the largest and the longest ever in the Western world. The process displayed high efficiency and consistency in providing gas of stable quality and quantity, and the cost of the UCG gas produced proved to be comparable (on a per unit of energy basis) with the very low cost of thermal coal in the Australian market,", Golder Associates' environmental report, December 2005.

Why is Linc Energy's Chinchilla UCG facility recognised as the most successful ever in the Western world?

35,000 tonnes of coal gasified at Chinchilla - more than in any other UCG trial. Within the Rocky Mountain 1 trial - considered the most successful UCG trial in the United States - only 10,000 tonnes were gasified. 
80 million Nm3 of gas produced at 4.5 - 5.7 MJ/m3 
A maximum capacity of 80,000Nm3/hr or 675 tonnes of coal per day was reached at the Chinchilla plant. In comparison, the Rocky Mountain 1 trial achieved a maximum gasification rate of 200 tonnes of coal per day. 
The Chinchilla trial proved availability of gas production over 30 months - by far the longest ever recorded outside the ex-USSR. 
95% recovery of coal resource 
75% of total energy recovery 
9 injection / production wells 
19 monitoring wells 
Average depth of 140m 
High quality and consistency of syngas 
No groundwater contamination registered 
No subsidence has occurred 
No surface contamination detected 
No environmental issues have been identified to date during the controlled shutdown process


----------



## ca1987

Big drop today! Maybe people are taking no news on the chinchilla project as bad news?

The Linc site says it is a demonstration burn so when can we expect a commercial facility?


----------



## basilio

There is a big drop in LINC and it seems on large volume as well. Raises a couple of thoughts and questions.

1) How do the "sophisticated" investors feel who placed $100 mill with LINC and have watched their shares drop over 35% in a few days.
2) Is there something we should know about the commissioning of the trial plant that isn't coming out? Is this being reflected in the current slump?
3) Given that the stock is tightly held  who is doing the selling? Is there any chance some of the selling is coming from the major shareholders?


----------



## The Dealer

If you look at the sellers, they are selling in lots of 5000 and 10000.
However, there are buyers of 20000 and 30000. I think it is just having a shakeout like the whole market. 
I would say that most of that $100mil was borrowed money and there is someone targeting LNC forcing the short of the stock price and standing back and buying all the stock back off those who are getting margin calls and have to sell.
I found it unusual that it neared $5 4 weeks ago, and now trading back at 2.80. In that time LNC was asked to explain its share price appreciation and they said institutional investment. I bet when they get asked about the depreciation this week they will say instiutional investors. They should say Hedge Funds!!
I would like to see who the holders are of the stock and compare against last list. 
I had a look at some Shearwater is an American capital management fund for Doctors.
Citi group, Perpetual, HSBC. All of these guys are turning them over and making a fortune.
Hang in there! Hopefully they will have black gold flowing soon!


----------



## grace

With the price of oil going stronger and stronger, so should the share price of Linc.  After all, this could be our solution to importing of oil for Australia.  

However, I am more than happy with the sell off, time to add to my holding while others panic.

When there is blood on the street, that is the time to buy, not sell!  Perhaps one more day of capitulation, and I'll be scooping up on this one.


----------



## The Dealer

Plus I just found out that the price of coal fell 10% overnight.
That would also add to some getting the shakes and heading for the door.


----------



## stad

The Dealer said:


> Plus I just found out that the price of coal fell 10% overnight.
> That would also add to some getting the shakes and heading for the door.




I thought that the drop was for spot prices, not Coal in general.

I could be corrected on this.

stad


----------



## Calliope

grace said:


> With the price of oil going stronger and stronger, so should the share price of Linc.  After all, this could be our solution to importing of oil for Australia.
> 
> However, I am more than happy with the sell off, time to add to my holding while others panic.
> 
> When there is blood on the street, that is the time to buy, not sell!  Perhaps one more day of capitulation, and I'll be scooping up on this one.




Yes. I would have  thought that Linc would be one of the few that would benefit from the rising price of oil, however oil shares retreated yesterday too. I think it is the lemming syndrome. I bought some more yesterday near the bottom. Courage will win out. The good news day will be the day when the Linc vehicle fleet start filling up with diesal at the Linc bowser.


----------



## grace

There is good support at $3 on Linc.  Busted through that yesterday, but a better day today.  I was hoping to pick up some more sub $3 but might just wait to see what the DOW does over the next week or two.  . 

Link are picking up quite a few more SXP, with no other bidder yet.  I don't think there will be one now.


----------



## The Dealer

http://www.portphillippublishing.co...aj705&alias=8L&o=1515163&u=37830662&l=1585633

Check out this!
I know of one companies they are talking about. Good for the truly faithful.
Does any one know the other that they are talking about?


----------



## korrupt_1

I received similar email from the DailyReckoning just today... after reading it - it has the feel of 'ramping' to me....

Quote from that link



> The technology is proven. And this company has the IP and patents locked up airtight.




LNC are not the only people doing it...

this one is in commercial production already...

http://www.mediaclubsouthafrica.com...el+from+coal&catid=38:innovation_bg&Itemid=56

Nevertheless,.. the technology is exciting!

Perhaps Australia will be the next Dubai?


----------



## Goldmann

The Dealer said:


> http://www.portphillippublishing.co...aj705&alias=8L&o=1515163&u=37830662&l=1585633
> 
> Check out this!
> I know of one companies they are talking about. Good for the truly faithful.
> Does any one know the other that they are talking about?




had a look into it, i too get the DR... 

the clean coal they are talking about is WEC... White Coal or whatever it is... its not still mid $2.. its above $3 now...


----------



## michael_selway

Goldmann said:


> had a look into it, i too get the DR...
> 
> the clean coal they are talking about is WEC... White Coal or whatever it is... its not still mid $2.. its above $3 now...




Hm WEC, interesting

*White Energy Company Limited (WEC, formerly Amerod Resources Limited) aims to create a diversified resource group with unique mining technology capabilities. WECs existing asset base includes Coal Technology Assets and Mineral Exploration Assets*

So when is WEC expected to be in production?

thx

MS


----------



## LittleMak

Seen this on the news tonight.

CSIRO captures CO2 from coal fired power stations.

http://www.csiro.au/news/CarbonDioxideCapture.html


----------



## eddyeagle

Linc just caught my eye today after reading the report from the Australian Small Cap Investor ramping it up big time. 

Anyway, had a quick look at LNC and it looks to be getting smashed like the rest of the market at the moment but I will keep my eye on this one... The technology does sound interesting.


----------



## NomadAUS

Yes Linc has a very interesting way of getting Diesel out of Coal.

I locked at them 3 month ago (from an Engineering Point Of View) and I'm impressed but don’t hold anything yet.

I think it could work but why is it not recognised by Professional Engineers around the world yet? considering this technology has been around for numerous years (Google Russian Coal to Gas).

As I said before, I do like the technology and love to have a cleaner Environment but I’m also an Engineer in the Resource Business (Meaning that I have seen hundreds of good ideas in my life before).

The report you linked is properly a downturn for any professional investor; kind of ‘Buy one share and we will trow in a Blender for FREE;’ style, to much US Early Morning TV Adds style.

I do not hold Linc shares but have it on my list of thinks to lock into in the next 12 month.

You could check this out if you interested in it:

http://www.csiro.au/csiro/channel/pchco.html


----------



## flipztacy

HeAlll

Just wanted to know your thoughts on LNC share. I recently bought a huge amount of LNC shares at 3.51, but last few days they have just been taking a hammering. Is it still worth holding? Any signs of recovery or further declines or should i just cut my losses?


----------



## grace

flipztacy said:


> HeAlll
> 
> Just wanted to know your thoughts on LNC share. I recently bought a huge amount of LNC shares at 3.51, but last few days they have just been taking a hammering. Is it still worth holding? Any signs of recovery or further declines or should i just cut my losses?




Can not tell you whether to hold or sell, but any day now, pilot plant will be fully commissioned.  It could be as late as next month though.  If it all goes well, expect a lot of media publicity.


----------



## flipztacy

Thanks Grace


Do you kno what the causes of the the declining prices? havent heard any bad news yet...do you hold any of lnc shares?


----------



## Newy74

grace said:


> Can not tell you whether to hold or sell, but any day now, pilot plant will be fully commissioned.  It could be as late as next month though.  If it all goes well, expect a lot of media publicity.




Grace

I have been doing a lot of reading about LNC over the past couple of weeks, and especially the last week on this forum, it looks very promising, the only question I have and can't seem to find is the production date (20000bpd), at least MEE have set a date of 2009.


----------



## Goldmann

flipztacy said:


> Thanks Grace
> 
> 
> Do you kno what the causes of the the declining prices? havent heard any bad news yet...do you hold any of lnc shares?




I hold LNC... entry price 3.70... bought for the short term in the interest of plant being commissioned... 

interesting after i bought - Daily Reckoning slammed out their "buy this now and you will be rich"... maybe i am the next talbot hahaha.

anyway - declining price COULD be because:

1) nothing is certain in world markets at present
2) the ASX has been on a constant downer for the last month or so (if not longer)
3) when nothing is certain, smaller caps get smashed more than big established players (you should see some of my small gold plays that have been slashed)
4) perhaps some people are taking their profits now (remembering it was under a $1 not that long ago)
5) nothing is guarenteed with LNC actually doing what they say they can

that all said... the potential upside for me outweighs the risk. so thats why i hold...  but thats me, your make up your own mind...


----------



## ca1987

Lack of news on the commissioning could also be making people edgy.

I rather them take their time and get it right the first time in lieu of announcing a major delay due to rushing it. But i am still edgy.


----------



## eddyeagle

Well after dipping under 3 bucks yesterday it jumped 8% today!!! 

I'm hesitant to buy anything in this current market... but watching this one closely!


----------



## mexican

Relax, Relax people! Mr. Bond and co will get it right.
The plant starting up will be big news, but the announcements that should come after that will be bigger.
I still think that something is in the wind in the US, once the plant fires up we will know.
Been holding for over 14 months and will be holding for a lot longer.


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> Relax, Relax people! Mr. Bond and co will get it right.
> The plant starting up will be big news, but the announcements that should come after that will be bigger.
> I still think that something is in the wind in the US, once the plant fires up we will know.
> Been holding for over 14 months and will be holding for a lot longer.




Yes, good post Mexican!  I'm still holding of course (think I've been in it 18 months).

I've read a number of media reports that the plant has been commissioned.  Well I'm sure they have got it wrong!  No news to the ASX yet.  I heard a broker on ABC radio this morning saying "it's probably a couple of weeks away".

Today's CM pg 12 on Linc.....trying to say they will infest the water etc.  However PB puts up the fight.  Some quotes....



> Linc already has successfully tested its pilot plant at Chinchilla and, according to an independent environmental assessment, there was no groundwater contamination, no surface subidence and no surface contamination




Then talks about Wyoming groundwater contamination.



> But Linc MD Peter Bond is adamant that the processes the company is using are tried and tested, and that the Wyoming case "was a perfect experiment in what not to do".






> In the Surat Basin alone there are an estimated 25 - 30 billion tonnes of coal.  Just one million tonnes of coal can yield the energy equivalent of at least 300 million litres of petrol!




Now put that in your calculator and what do you get (cost of production at $25/barrel).


----------



## Calliope

Grace. I saw that article in the CM. Like all tabloids they prefer a negative headline to a positive one. It could just as easily been the other way around. For negative thoughts National Toxics Network is a good place to go.  The Queensland Conservation Council's home page has an article on coal seam gas.If you go to the links there seems to be some concerns on CO2 emissions in the production of electricity from CSG and Syngas. I understand that in the GTL process there are of course emissions, but much less than in the current production and refining of diesel.
The biggest positive is national Interest and I think this will carry greater weight than the doomsayers.


----------



## revilo

Can anyone please help???

LNC poised to make millions...
LNC has small coal reserves..?
Large caps ( BHP, MCC, CNA) etc have massive reserves....
Gasification technology is 40 years old, so why haven't large caps tried the technology???
Why hasn't the U.S. which has massive reserves of coal and is big importer of oil, tried the technology, which can be purchased from Canada or Russia???


----------



## grace

Not so sure that they have small coal reserves.  400 million tonne and rising at Chinchilla.  Other deposits not yet drilled.  Coking coal deposit not yet drilled.  Taking over SXP Sapex with Billions of tonnes already.

Price of oil I think has a lot to do with why now.  When oil was $10 barrel, not viable.


----------



## jast28

Hi all,

Check out this link for some promising news about GTL & CTL and LNC.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-128.pdf


----------



## jast28

Current links about Linc.....



http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=489820


http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23841723-5017261,00.html


http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Linc-Arrow-agree-to-Chinchilla-terms-GC99H



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23908107-15023,00.html


http://lncgy.realpennies.com/


http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/06/linc-energy-to.html


----------



## revilo

Can anyone please help???

LNC poised to make millions...
LNC has small coal reserves..?
Large caps ( BHP, MCC, CNA) etc have massive reserves....
Gasification technology is 40 years old, so why haven't large caps tried the technology???
Why hasn't the U.S. which has massive reserves of coal and is big importer of oil, tried the technology, which can be purchased from Canada or Russia???
 cheers


----------



## Panacea

revilo said:


> Can anyone please help???
> 
> LNC poised to make millions...
> LNC has small coal reserves..?
> Large caps ( BHP, MCC, CNA) etc have massive reserves....
> Gasification technology is 40 years old, so why haven't large caps tried the technology???
> Why hasn't the U.S. which has massive reserves of coal and is big importer of oil, tried the technology, which can be purchased from Canada or Russia???
> cheers




Why shouldn't Linc be first? Everything that's ever been done, was done first by _someone_, often while others watched on and thought "why didn't I think of that". A couple of years back, when oil prices were more stable and no-one had heard the term 'peak oil', there was no incentive to try things like this; now there is plenty of incentive and Linc happens to be first out of the gate.   

As for BHP etc, maybe the large caps don't have the right kind of reserves (coal trapped in seams that are uneconomical to mine). Maybe they don't have the flexibility in their business plans to try risky ventures. Maybe they're happy to allow smaller caps to prove the process before moving into the field. Maybe their directors were slow to embrace the idea.

'Old technology?'... Linc may have chosen to go this way because the process has 40 years of success behind it. And an experienced work-force to implement it. Maybe it's a wise move to utilise tried and tested technology in a venture like this. 

As for the 'small coal reserves' you mentioned, have you read Linc's announcements regarding the merger with Sapex? Furthermore, if the process works, and Linc does 'make millions' (a conservative estimate should the process work), do you think they will find it difficult to obtain further reserves?


----------



## Calliope

Good post Panacea. I suggest that newcomers to Linc who wish to get a handle on what's going on could profit by reading the Price Waterhouse report,all 54 pages of it;

www.lincenergy.com.au.pdf/ucgreport-01.pdf


----------



## basilio

Thanks Calliope. I tried to access the Price Waterhouse report but it did not seem to be available. Perhaps it is on a non public part of the Linc site.

Do you have a copy you could forward to me? 

Cheers


----------



## Calliope

basilio said:


> Thanks Calliope. I tried to access the Price Waterhouse report but it did not seem to be available. Perhaps it is on a non public part of the Linc site.
> 
> Do you have a copy you could forward to me?
> 
> Cheers




Cheers basilio. Go to lincenergy.com.au
                    Click News and Links
                    Click UCG Report
                    Click PDF


----------



## jast28

Gas Worth Billions Maybe Too Risky....From the Courier Mail, 12 July 2008



http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-129.jpg


----------



## grace

Buying seems to have started again, in fact going very strong over the last few days (considering overall market).  Is this the buying before the announcement....do insiders know something? Up a nice 11% today to $3.85.


----------



## eddyeagle

Held off from buying this one last week around 3 bucks and it has jumped 30% in a couple of sessions!


----------



## basilio

Well Eddy it looks as if you can get back in at a nice fat discount !

I have to say the sharp rise and then immediate falls are disconcerting. Are we in a situation where  the creation of  near instant  stock price changes for immediate profit is the main game?( Okay that may be pretty obvious..)  My guess from the rises in the past 2 days and I suppose Graces comment was that announcements on the final successful commissioning of the pilot plant was imminent. Therefore there was some knowledgeable money buying in ahead of the announcement. 

But perhaps there is  more to this in terms of stock manipulation. Any other thoughts?


----------



## ColB

> "...I have to say the sharp rise and then immediate falls are disconcerting. Are we in a situation where the creation of near instant stock price changes for immediate profit is the main game?( Okay that may be pretty obvious..) My guess from the rises in the past 2 days and I suppose Graces comment was that announcements on the final successful commissioning of the pilot plant was imminent. Therefore there was some knowledgeable money buying in ahead of the announcement.
> 
> ...But perhaps there is more to this in terms of stock manipulation. Any other thoughts?..."




Hey Bas & Eddy, some fairly decent orders in the last 10 minutes!!  And there were a lot of trades at the opening where decent parcels changed hands at very high $3's some of which sitting on a significant paper loss at the end of the day.

Me, well bought another 7000 @ $3.66 and not happy with that so another 7000 at 3.49 (almost the bottom).  It will go back up again!  (WON'T IT  )

04:10:41 PM 3.450 4,219 $14,555.55   
04:10:41 PM 3.450 600 2,070.00   
04:10:41 PM 3.450 6,026 $20,789.70   
04:10:41 PM 3.450 15,000 $51,750.00   
*04:10:41 PM 3.450 65,930 $227,458.50* 
04:10:41 PM 3.450 10,000 $34,500.00   
04:10:41 PM 3.450 4,845 $16,715.25


----------



## korrupt_1

eddyeagle said:


> Held off from buying this one last week around 3 bucks and it has jumped 30% in a couple of sessions!




yeh same here.... especially after reading the daily reckoning report last week... i still hesitated... argh!!

... *sigh*... the one that got away!


----------



## Go Nuke

Not sure if I'm allowed to say this , but got some info today to buy LNC as it could go to $5++ next week or 2.

Girlfriends aunty knows a top 20 holder through some way,shape or form.

The last time I got this tip it went from $1.76 to $4.
I didn't buy then either and I'm not buying this time around simply becasue i have no money.

Goodluck to LNC holders.


----------



## ColB

> Not sure if I'm allowed to say this , but got some info today to buy LNC as it could go to $5++ next week or 2.
> 
> Girlfriends aunty knows a top 20 holder through some way,shape or form.
> 
> The last time I got this tip it went from $1.76 to $4.
> I didn't buy then either and I'm not buying this time around simply becasue i have no money.
> 
> Goodluck to LNC holders.




Hey Nuke,  Did your girlfriends aunties cousins sister buy any??

Seriously, though, a broker or 2 have a $5 target or so during the next 12 months and if you believe Dan Denning (The Daily Reckoner) the SP is going to the moon (and back again).



> I didn't buy then either and I'm not buying this time around simply becasue i have no money.




I can identify with you on that one.  I might be selling the latest purchase for a quick profit (I hope) as the redraw is copping a hiding.

Regards CB


----------



## Calliope

I am an optimist at heart, but I always worry whenever I buy shares whether the person selling the shares is more informed than I am. On the other hand I have a feeling that the person buying 65,930 lnc shares @ 3.45 at the close of the market yesterday is better informed than we are.


----------



## jast28

A mention of LNC in todays (22 July 2008) FIn Review page18.

Another investment we can consider is Cougar Energy (CXY).


----------



## Go Nuke

Gee how gay is the Fin review!

You have to subscribe to read that article...unless I'm missing something.

Could someone give us a brief rundown on the article please?

I pulled up stumps on FMG to buy into LNC today.

Wasn't going to let another of those hot tips pass me by


----------



## ColB

*Originally posted by Calliope* - 







> I am an optimist at heart, but I always worry whenever I buy shares whether the person selling the shares is more informed than I am. On the other hand I have a feeling that the person buying 65,930 lnc shares @ 3.45 at the close of the market yesterday is better informed than we are.




Calliope, nice little $30k paper profit in 2 days!!

*Originally posted by Go Nuke* - 







> I pulled up stumps on FMG to buy into LNC today.




Welcome aboard Nuke.  I see you found that money you were looking for!  Didn't you have some other share you could sell?  FMG is going to go up 20% over the next 3-4 weeks  Isn't that what happens when you bail out and into something else.  I hold both.  But you've done the right thing you will make more out of LNC.  Last time I said something like that without supporting facts I got chastised.

Supporting facts as follows..... Gut feeling


----------



## Go Nuke

ColB said:


> *Originally posted by Calliope* -
> 
> Calliope, nice little $30k paper profit in 2 days!!
> 
> *Originally posted by Go Nuke* -
> 
> Welcome aboard Nuke.    I hold both.  But you've done the right thing you will make more out of LNC.  Last time I said something like that without supporting facts I got chastised.
> 
> Supporting facts as follows..... Gut feeling




Hahah..yeah like I was saying. I made a crappy 15% gain out of FMG over a 7 month period and the wobbly sp was making me too nervous and getting too close to my buy in price. So I thought....why keep it in FMG if I can (hopefully) make more in LNC.



> I see you found that money you were looking for!  Didn't you have some other share you could sell?  FMG is going to go up 20% over the next 3-4 weeks  Isn't that what happens when you bail out and into something else.



Aww don't say that! That would be my luck too. And no i didn't have anything else to sell. They are all losses Well most are.


----------



## jast28

LINC Energy in Top 150 Companies  21/7/8

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-134.pdf

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-133.pdf


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by Calliope -
> 
> Quote:
> I am an optimist at heart, but I always worry whenever I buy shares whether the person selling the shares is more informed than I am. On the other hand I have a feeling that the person buying 65,930 lnc shares @ 3.45 at the close of the market yesterday is better informed than we are.






> Originally posted by ColB -
> 
> Quote: Calliope, nice little $30k paper profit in 2 days!!




What a difference a couple of days make!  $30k paper profit to $12k paper loss.  Looks like it doesn't matter how well informed we are when the market turns like this Calliope.  

Another buying opportunity?  Still holding.  Won't sell.  

I believe in LNC.  I believe in LNC.  I believe in LNC


----------



## eddyeagle

I cannot believe how volatile this one is!!!

Still waiting to enter - trying to get a feel for the sp movements... but it is extremely erratic!


----------



## Calliope

Yes Col, I also am a believer and will roll with the punches. I think that those heading for the exit are being spooked by the down turn in energy shares. There is no reason fluctuations in oil price should affect Linc. I have just dug out the !2 June BBY Analysis of Linc. At that time their valuation of the share price was 5.50 based on the long term price of oil at *US$65 a barrel.*


----------



## mexican

Price of oil should really not effect LNC, the main thing with LNC is that they will produce cleaner fuels by a cleaner process. Unlike Sasol and others.

Ever since LNC announced the merger with SXP the sp has been up and down like a yoyo! 
Might just be a coincidence with the down turn of the market.


----------



## Pigsy

I just wish I could pick the lows on this one. On 3 occasions now I've bought in only to find the stock price drop.  This will teach me to run stop losses. I haven't sold out yet hoping for a turn around when some sort of production announcement is made.


----------



## Evangeline

we will all be very relieved when some liquids are produced from that pilot plant....and the sp should go ballistic!  meanwhile its a waiting game and the volatility is extreme


----------



## LittleMak

Calliope said:


> Yes Col, I also am a believer and will roll with the punches. I think that those heading for the exit are being spooked by the down turn in energy shares. There is no reason fluctuations in oil price should affect Linc. I have just dug out the !2 June BBY Analysis of Linc. At that time their valuation of the share price was 5.50 based on the long term price of oil at *US$65 a barrel.*





It should also be noted that BBY own shares in LNC so of course they will pump up the valuation price. 

Still a long way to go before LNC start producing and making profits, and thats when the share price should reflect its true value. 

Hopefully not too much longer before pilot plant proves successful. I suspect many people will be taking profits after all the hype from the pilot plant subsides in these current markets?

Good luck to all Holders.


----------



## grace

The only thing I really want to buy is more of these, but PB just keeps bringing out the good announcements........I guess one shouldn't complain.  Was hoping for some weakness for a top up......we'll see how the Banks travel this week for some more weakness in the overall market.


----------



## Go Nuke

grace said:


> The only thing I really want to buy is more of these, but PB just keeps bringing out the good announcements........I guess one shouldn't complain.  Was hoping for some weakness for a top up......we'll see how the Banks travel this week for some more weakness in the overall market.




Gee Grace how much more weakness were you hopeing for?

It was $4+ just a few days ago ..then dropped like a rock!

Your right though...more good news to come the way of LNC holders....oh except that write up in Saturdays Courier Mail about the court win for QGC and BG against Linc


----------



## Calliope

Go Nuke, I saw that item in the C-M on Saturday. The writer thought the news was responsible for the big drop in LNC last Friday. There is a similar article in the Australian today. P.B. said that the stoush would not slow down the company's billion dollar project aims and that the injunction was not released to the exchange because it was not seen as material. If you want to read the article go to The Australian on Google, go to Business, Mining and Energy and "Search For" Linc


----------



## grace

Calliope said:


> Go Nuke, I saw that item in the C-M on Saturday. The writer thought the news was responsible for the big drop in LNC last Friday. There is a similar article in the Australian today. P.B. said that the stoush would not slow down the company's billion dollar project aims and that the injunction was not released to the exchange because it was not seen as material. If you want to read the article go to The Australian on Google, go to Business, Mining and Energy and "Search For" Linc




Yes, it is not significant.  Finally got that top up today.  Much happier now.  This is holding up well considering where it came from.  Showing great strength really.  A bit of news should come through on Sapex too over the next few months.


----------



## grace

BRR interview with Mr Bond....licensed to......?

Should be liquids within 2 - 4 weeks from today, and then he said 2 - 3 weeks a bit later in the interview.

Spoke of Sapex merger, sale of coking coal deposit "Theresa" later this year to fund Chinchilla commercial project..hoping not to dilute shareholder value.  

Tick Tock, Tick Tock.

http://www.brr.com.au/asx/LNC/linc-energy-ltd/

PS Site Tour is on 21/8/08 for those interested. admin@chinchilla.org.au  (conference administrator)


----------



## namrog

Hows it goin Grace,

Saw your comment in the annual comp thread, and had a little laugh to myself.
Believe me, there's not much the rest of you can learn from me, and yeah, I try not to be a ramper, in fact I joined ASF to be able to view charts when displayed in different threads,( which I couldn't do as a guest ) and to learn myself from the knowledgeable folk here.

Haven't been posting here as I don't think I can add much of real value, and mostly post my oppinions on another board, and it all takes time as well, especially at the pace that i type.

So just to give you my current thoughts on LNC, I've pasted below a post from yesterday.  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As commisioning of the demo plant enters its final phase, the time is fast approaching for Linc shares to make or break, as is reflected by the chart pattern, whereby it is working itself into the pointy end of a classic triangle.

I would expect when it does break, that a move of $2 p/s at least, is on the cards, hopefully up, and going by the chart pattern, could happen within the next 5 to 10 trading days.
Volume shows strong interest, so any move will get em on board in a hurry.
Picked up a few more today @ $3-33, would be nice to offload some @ $6-66.
Also, the slight change in market sentiment over the last couple of days should give the SP a major kick along on any good news. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

So there you go Grace, am going on a bit of a bush trip in 3 weeks time, never been to the outback before , will be for around 21 days, to Broken hill, Simpson, Ayres rock, Henley on todd, Birdsville races, lightning ridge, and hopeing to have the time to call and have a look at the Linc demo plant on the way home.

Hope to post more regularly re LNC, but it goes without saying that the next week or three will make or break us. 

All my oppinion only and dyodd.
Re Joe.


----------



## FelicityM

You have Linc with a market cap of about 1.3 billion, demo plant almost complete. Once complete it will only produce 10 barrels of diesel a day, which won't be sold. So no initial profit until they build a larger plant in a couple of years. Much of the share-price has already been factored in, because US investors have bought truck-loads of the stock.

Then you have Carbon Energy with a market cap of around 200 million, demo plant to be fully fabricated in September, gasification in October. These guys are building one simple CSIRO designed module to begin with, and when they need more power/fertilizer/fuel they just add more modules. Carbon Energy have much more potential upside in my opinion. Less risk, MOU with Incitec Pivot Fertilizers, better technology. 

I know where I'd prefer to invest my money.


----------



## Calliope

Welcome Felicity. What you say about Linc makes a lot of sense. I have been a long term holder and at times I have a nagging feeling that, although they issue a lot of announcements, they are not being completely transparent. However I am optimistic that their test drilling on their "Therese" tenement near Emerald for high grade coking coal will end up being very profitable. The eventual sale of this asset should go a long way to funding their big project at Chinchilla.
I agree with you on CNX and I look forward to your postings on that thread.


----------



## mexican

Yes yes yes. We have heard it all before FM.
Good luck with CNX. I am sure you will do well.
Like you said, alot of American interest. Why? Well time will tell.


----------



## grace

Well, it's nice to have something green today.  Keeping the market well informed seems to keep the sellers at bay.



> GTL Plant Progresses to the Next Stage
> 
> Linc Energy has also progressed on the completion of the GTL demonstration facility with all relevant piping now complete, the last of the testing being completed over the next few days before final commissioning is commenced on liquids production late this week.
> 
> Mr Bond said “you will not see liquids straight away as there are a number of basic steps which need ramping up, including activation of the Fischer Tropsch (GTL reactor catalyst) before liquids can be manufactured. We are definitely on the final stretch now for liquids production and that is incredibly exciting for all the team at Linc Energy and its shareholders”.






> Linc Energy Ltd announced today that late last week the Company had ignited its No. 3 Underground Coal Gasifier Field (known as No. 3 Generator).
> 
> The new UCG field is already producing very good quality gas, which is being fed to the “flare” on the Chinchilla site.
> 
> The Linc Energy team expect that this synthetic gas (syngas) from the new UCG field will be the perfect feed gas for Linc Energy’s GTL demonstration facility.
> 
> Mr Peter Bond, Linc Energy’s CEO said “the commencement of flaring UCG gas from the No. 3 Generator is a significant milestone. Simply put, our first two (2) UCG generators were being driven predominantly from the Russian UCG experience and their processes. This new field is definitely a Linc Energy based process and a significant step forward from the old process”.






> ]“As any of our sophisticated investors know, the ability of Linc Energy to produce abundant amounts of low cost gas from its vast reserves of coal at various locations around Australia and indeed the world, is the secret source to Linc Energy’s success.
> 
> UCG combined with GTL means Linc Energy can produce high quality diesel fuel from low cost UCG gas and Linc Energy becomes the only company in the world capable of taking a $1 Tonne of coal in-situ and turning that coal into $140 barrel of diesel (via UCG to GTL). Let’s face it, this is the sort of business model most sophisticated investors like very much indeed;”
> 
> The new UCG field (UCG Generator 3) will be capable of producing in excess of 250,000 cubic metres of syngas per day from its initial operations. With the construction of the commercial size UCG field after final approvals have been obtained, Linc Energy’s UCG operations will be capable of producing approximately one million (1,000,000) cubic metres of syngas per hour.




http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080805/pdf/00866895.pdf


----------



## Go Nuke

Right on Grace.

For once it looks like i made the right choice in selling out of FMG to buy into LNC 

Even if I'm still on a loss today

At lest there should be more good news to come


----------



## LittleMak

_Mr Peter Bond, Linc Energy’s CEO said “the commencement of flaring UCG gas from the No. 3 Generator is a significant milestone. Simply put, our first two (2) UCG generators were being driven predominantly from the Russian UCG experience and their processes. This new field is definitely a Linc Energy based process and a significant step forward from the old process”._

Eeeek  that dosent sound good!  they bought the old technology and now it dosent work as good as they hoped?  are they now running with scissors? making it up as they go?  Come on Linc keep it together!!!!


----------



## ColB

I emailed Janelle van de Velde, Manager Investor Relations & Corporate Communications to try and find out when the trial GTL Plant will actually 'produce liquid'.  I received a reply within 6 minutes of my email having been sent and it reads as follows.....



> The ballpark period for anticipated liquid is likely to be weeks not
> days.....  Whilst it is difficult to get a true sense of the size and
> complexity of this plant from the images we have shown, there are many
> facets to this plant and as gas enters the plant, each module is being
> commissioned individually.
> 
> We will be holding a shareholder day at site as we did last November however that date is yet to be confirmed.
> 
> I do understand your concern however I am also confident that when you
> witness the finished product in person, you will truly appreciate how
> complex this world-first operation is. [Regards Janelle van de Velde]




So, whilst the commissioning of this plant will commence in the next couple of weeks or so we are not to expect the 'LIQUID GOLD' to flow until some time after.  Hopefully that is the catalyst to set the SP alight!

I wouldn't think LNC would be merging with Sapex to secure their holdings, nor would several million shares be placed at $3.70 to institutions, professional investors and the like if their process is not going to be successful.  Just a little more patience, like 4-6 weeks to see its SP back at old highs.

I disclose holding a very large parcel


----------



## awg

share price has been really hammered this morning.

same as CNX (the old Metex)

presumably this is on the assumption oil prices to fall and stabilise

cant see that any recent anns would precipitate this fall

anyone else know more?

could be a buy opp for true believers


----------



## TheAbyss

LNC down 14% this morning. Interesting moves afoot regarding evironmental concerns with G2L technology on the environment.

Could just be a pi$$ing contest between QGC and LNC as the Qld Govt has licensed the same tenements twice. QGC are saying there can be only one whilst LNC are adamant that the two technologies can coexist and have the ear of some influential people to tell their side of the story too. 

Added to this the Qld mines and energy minister has stated that they are at least 3 years away from granting a production license to G2L companies.

Quote " Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson said the government "has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years". "

This last statement will impact on all G2L companies in Qld and potenitially Australia i suspect. Interesting times indeed with some guaranteed turbulence ahead imo.


----------



## fitz007

https://www.macquarie.com.au/emgonl...hehdr=0&feedId=208970&irn=380112&macCode=7888

out today .. worth a read mate
as you say .. firm believer !~ haha


----------



## TheAbyss

fitz007 said:


> https://www.macquarie.com.au/emgonl...hehdr=0&feedId=208970&irn=380112&macCode=7888
> 
> out today .. worth a read mate
> as you say .. firm believer !~ haha





As i suggested, looks like a pi$$ing contest between QGC and LNC. 

Either way the market is hard enough at the moment without this sort of carrying on.


----------



## grace

TheAbyss said:


> As i suggested, looks like a pi$$ing contest between QGC and LNC.
> 
> Either way the market is hard enough at the moment without this sort of carrying on.




Doesn't surprise me.  I thought we would be in for that sought of annoyance.  After all, who runs QGC?  Was it a reformed lawyer, or is he just getting his boots repolished now?

Disclosure:  holding both.


----------



## flipztacy

Oucchh down 14% today.. lucky i sold out .......who still a firm believer now?
Seems like all the big boys are selling outs.. was expecting positive reaction the chinchilla update instead stocks go opposite direction...


----------



## grace

flipztacy said:


> Oucchh down 14% today.. lucky i sold out .......who still a firm believer now?
> Seems like all the big boys are selling outs.. was expecting positive reaction the chinchilla update instead stocks go opposite direction...




I'm still a firm believer until the minute that Linc tell me the technology won't work, and I do not think that will be the case.

As for some negative publicity....both State and Federal governments are very supportive of both industries (CSG and CTL), so I don't see any problem.  Environmental issues - could see CSG with more, but that's just my opinion.

My issue with CSG is using up all of that water underground, and then what?  Some other industries rely on that underground water being there.  However, my portfolio is heavily weighted in CSG and in Linc, so at the expense of a few, the government will reap big rewards, and so will shareholders.  Who will win?


----------



## GGecko

I agree with grace, LNC hasn’t got this far by accident, their planning and investments will continue to be successful. I believe there is nothing to worry about and will hang onto my shares for which I will be handsomely rewarded.


----------



## prawn_86

Why will you be rewarded Ggecko?

What if something does not go to plan? Or their investments go up the proverbial creek?

Some more detail would be nice please.


----------



## korrupt_1

Geeze... I bought into this company due the ramp that the Daily Reckoning gave... but I'm having doubts...

With muddied waters about legal actions, etc... sounds complicated, drawn out and a (high??) risk speculative stock.

Tell me again, why is this such a good stock to own? Should have closed out on the last rally, and perhaps buy in again at a lower price - if it's as good as the DR thinks they are... I'd be interested in what the DR people are saying about this stock now.

Just curious... for you investors... at what stage would you consider pulling the pin? How low would you allow it to go before declaring this stock to be too troublesome to own?


----------



## GGecko

In reply to prawn_86, as a shareholder, I have watched the growth of this company for a few years and having read all the ASX announcements, including Bonds’ response today, analysed all the material on the company during this time from the internet, newspapers, magazines and their own website and by listening to advisors, it becomes clear that they rarely put a foot wrong. As you would expect with any venture of this size, occasionally milestones are not reached on time but you know they will be reached. From the above information types you come to realise that the staff know exactly what they are doing and are in it for the long haul because like Bond they know what that light is at the end of the tunnel. Sure there are going to be few bumps and ‘nay sayers’ along the way.


----------



## Czech

I don't own shares in the company or any other UGC orientated company but after reading todays Daily Reckoning you would have to ask, is it worth the risk, in view of the alleged release from the Office of Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson as saying, the Queensland Government has, 
"no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years". 

That's not what I want to read as a potential investor, that's for sure.


----------



## ColB

*Originally posted by Czech*


> I don't own shares in the company or any other UGC orientated company but after reading todays Daily Reckoning you would have to ask, is it worth the risk, in view of the alleged release from the Office of Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson as saying, the Queensland Government has,
> "no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years".
> 
> That's not what I want to read as a potential investor, that's for sure.




Welcome to ASF Czech and your first post!  I don't know how long you have been a subscriber to the Daily Reckoning but perhaps you could go through a few past issues where Denning describes LNC as 'The Black Leaf Gold Project' and informs his followers how rich this company will make them.  I think he even throws in a set of steak knives!!

Given that you are quoting 'The Daily Reckoning' it would be interesting for ASF members to be privy to the content of the article you refer to.

Regards COLB


----------



## mojohand

Here you go ColB,

Has the government in Queensland quietly chosen a coal-seam-methane (CSM) future over underground coal gasification (UGC)? It looks that way, at least according to an article in today's Australian. The article quotes an unnamed official in the office of Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson as saying, the Queensland government has, "no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years". 

We chased up the reporter in the story to see where the quote came from. She produced a Microsoft Word document provided to her by a media spokesperson in the Department of Mines and Energy. The document compiles the various positions from the multiple government parties involved in the whole process. 

Under a section titled "Advice from the Office of the Minister for Mines and Energy," it reads: 

"The Department of Mines and Energy has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years. Underground coal gasification is a new technology, untried in Australian conditions, and it poses some potential problems, especially with groundwater systems. We will only do what's best for Queensland. In this case, we don't believe it's in the best interests of Queensland to grant production tenures for technology that is untried. It would have to meet the most stringent environmental standards." 

To our knowledge, this is the first time the Department has made any of those views public, if indeed those are the views of the Department. We phoned them up to verify the documents authenticity, and to determine whether "Advice" meant a tentative position or a policy position. So far, our call hasn't been returned. We'll report back tomorrow when we know more. 

If Queensland has chosen CSM over UGC for the reasons listed above, well it would seem like an odd decision, given that UGC is not a new technology and hasn't posed any problems to groundwater in its trial phases. A behind-the-scenes policy decision would be news to us (and to a certain UGC aspirant in Queensland that we've tipped to readers of our small-cap newsletter). 

In the meantime, you get the feeling that Aussie governments (at the State and Federal level) are almost looking for a way to derail the boom. The Emissions Trading Scheme, for example, appears to be a way that holier-than-thou bureaucrats can feel good about themselves by imposing costs on Australian business that will make them uncompetitive with their global peers. 

Hey, if you want to take a position on climate change that makes you feel morally superior to your neighbours, go for it. But when you start making policy that has a real affect on jobs and economic competitiveness, your moral self-righteousness suddenly becomes a lot less eccentric and a lot more damaging. 

The truth of the matter is that aside from the warm and fuzzy feeling it might bring people about "doing the right thing", Australia's voluntary reductions in carbon emissions won't make one whit of difference to anyone, and certainly not the planet. Not when China and India and the U.S. are not on board. Watch the coverage of the Olympics and then let us know if you think China-with its 1.2 billion industrialising new capitalists-will follow Australia's moral leadership...or continue its breakneck economic ascendancy that requires full employment and continuous growth. 

Not that you shouldn't do the right thing. You should. But in this case, perhaps the right thing is finding non-hydrocarbon sources of energy. That might mean seriously considering nuclear power, which of course goes against the secular orthodoxy of the "global warming" position. 

That "the right thing" might come from the marketplace of business experiments to solve the problem does not occur to policy makers (who love making rules to tell you how to live your life). It also tells you that the real motive of policy makers isn't to "save the planet" at all. It's to get ever more involved with aspect of private life so they can regulate, tax, and punish. 


Obey. 

That's Dan's brief synopsis in todays DR email.

As for the article in today's Australian where do I begin.. It would have to be one of the most irresponsible articles I've seen in a long time and certainly reduced the combined market cap of the three main UCG plays on the ASX.

I'm not sure if the forum members here are aware of this but it was revealed on the HC Forum that the article's author, Lenora Taylor, ran as a Greens candidate in 2004 in the seat of Moggill. Frankly those Green credentials should have been disclosed in the article allowing readers to understand her personal feelings toward UCG and CTL. Instead the article is disguised as a piece of "impartial journalism".

As far as the quote "has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years", I would suggest this to be extremely market sensitive information and if it is truly the position of the department then it should have been disclosed to all UCG players far sooner than this. To be disclosed by some unknown spokeswoman borders on the outrageous. In my opinion they should find out who she is and carve her a new one.


----------



## grace

ColB said:


> *Originally posted by Czech*
> 
> Welcome to ASF Czech and your first post!  I don't know how long you have been a subscriber to the Daily Reckoning but perhaps you could go through a few past issues where Denning describes LNC as 'The Black Leaf Gold Project' and informs his followers how rich this company will make them.  I think he even throws in a set of steak knives!!
> 
> Given that you are quoting 'The Daily Reckoning' it would be interesting for ASF members to be privy to the content of the article you refer to.
> 
> Regards COLB




Daily Reckoning will be following up the basis to that leakage from the department as to the validity of it.  Here is their commentary today.



> --Has the government in Queensland quietly chosen a coal-seam-methane (CSM) future over underground coal gasification (UGC)? It looks that way, at least according to an article in today's Australian. The article quotes an unnamed official in the office of Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson as saying, the Queensland government has, "no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years".
> 
> --We chased up the reporter in the story to see where the quote came from. She produced a Microsoft Word document provided to her by a media spokesperson in the Department of Mines and Energy. The document compiles the various positions from the multiple government parties involved in the whole process.
> 
> --Under a section titled "Advice from the Office of the Minister for Mines and Energy," it reads:
> 
> "The Department of Mines and Energy has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years. Underground coal gasification is a new technology, untried in Australian conditions, and it poses some potential problems, especially with groundwater systems. We will only do what's best for Queensland. In this case, we don't believe it's in the best interests of Queensland to grant production tenures for technology that is untried. It would have to meet the most stringent environmental standards."
> 
> --To our knowledge, this is the first time the Department has made any of those views public, if indeed those are the views of the Department. We phoned them up to verify the documents authenticity, and to determine whether "Advice" meant a tentative position or a policy position. So far, our call hasn't been returned. We'll report back tomorrow when we know more.
> 
> --If Queensland has chosen CSM over UGC for the reasons listed above, well it would seem like an odd decision, given that UGC is not a new technology and hasn't posed any problems to groundwater in its trial phases. A behind-the-scenes policy decision would be news to us (and to a certain UGC aspirant in Queensland that we've tipped to readers of our small-cap newsletter).


----------



## ColB

*Originally posted by Mojo..*


> That's Dan's brief synopsis in todays DR email.
> 
> As for the article in today's Australian where do I begin.. It would have to be one of the most irresponsible articles I've seen in a long time and certainly reduced the combined market cap of the three main UCG plays on the ASX.
> 
> I'm not sure if the forum members here are aware of this but it was revealed on the HC Forum that the article's author, Lenora Taylor, ran as a Greens candidate in 2004 in the seat of Moggill. *Frankly those Green credentials should have been disclosed in the article allowing readers to understand her personal feelings toward UCG and CTL.* Instead the article is disguised as a piece of "impartial journalism".
> 
> As far as the quote "has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years", I would suggest this to be extremely market sensitive information and if it is truly the position of the department then it should have been disclosed to all UCG players far sooner than this. To be disclosed by some unknown spokeswoman borders on the outrageous. In my opinion they should find out who she is and carve her a new one.




Well pointed out MoJo!  I posted about Lenora Taylors background in the CNX thread if anyone is interested.  Not quite impartial journalism in my opinion.


----------



## Dukey

Mmmm very interesting - I'm not a linc holder - but a close watcher...
A couple of things to note... The information supposedly from the ministers office is not dated... ie. it could be X years old, and stating a historical position.
Personally I'd think this journo is ****-stirring.   I'm sure Qld EPA will be circling and will have strict guidelines to enforce for UCG *as they should*... it's their job.... - but equally  other dept's will be keen to get UCG happening for the potential benefits it will bring to sunny qld...  If the UCG companies can provide the necessary environmental assurances then I'd expect the approvals to come.... and anyway, there MUST have been some kind of approvals needed for the initial trial burn at chinchilla ... must there not??
-D


----------



## awg

if the SP fall is mainly on a dodgy newspaper report, then u would really have to expect a rebound soon rather than later...ie tommorow

as i alluded to earliear CNX SP got slaughtered, as well, similar situation.

looking at the long term potential, tho that attracted me.

produce deisel and kerosine at $25-30 p barrel

there is presently no viable alternative to jet fuel ( kero)

i suppose it depends on what people think will be oil price trend

i do not believe oil price will go below $100 for any length of time

except of course in the event of a major recession.

if it gets that bad, recession wise, the price of Linc shares will be the least of our worries.

still holding


----------



## Santoro

mojohand said:


> I'm not sure if the forum members here are aware of this but it was revealed on the HC Forum that the article's author, Lenora Taylor, ran as a Greens candidate in 2004 in the seat of Moggill. Frankly those Green credentials should have been disclosed in the article allowing readers to understand her personal feelings toward UCG and CTL. Instead the article is disguised as a piece of "impartial journalism".




Lenora Taylor didn't get added to the share register yesterday ..................................................did she.


----------



## mojohand

Do you mean she orchestrated a buy in price because she was too cheap to over three bucks?


----------



## Mickel

Here's the latest from the Australian today. Note it is by a different author.

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24144945-5005200,00.html - 9 hours ago -

"Linc Energy shares rally after early plunge
Andrew Fraser | August 08, 2008 

THE Queensland Government last night backed away from a statement claiming that it would not issue any new licences for underground coal gasification technology for three years -- but not before the share prices of the two main companies operating in the area dropped dramatically.

A statement to The Australian on Wednesday from Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson said the department "has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years". 

After this statement appeared in yesterday's edition of The Australian, the share price of Linc Energy, the main company in the field, dropped immediately from an opening of $3.38 to $2.82. 

But when Linc Energy issued a statement to the market at 10.20am in which it denied that the Queensland Government had made such an announcement, its price rallied slightly to close at $2.93. 

This respresented a drop of just under 13 per cent during the day, or a loss of about $150 million of value in the company. 

Perth-based Carbon Energy, which also has interests in underground coal gasification, had an even more dramatic drop, closing at 37c, a drop of 35 per cent during the day. 

Mr Wilson issued a statement late yesterday in which there was no mention of a three-year moratorium, and he would only say that the Queensland Government "would only do what was best for Queensland in relation to underground coal gasification technology on trial in the state". 

He said the Queensland Government would not grant production tenures for any technology that was untried and untested in Australian conditions. 

"These projects are in a pilot phase which is why they have a conditional tenure and that gives no automatic right to a production tenure at a later point," he said. 

"We're not about to give the green light to underground coal gasification projects, especially where any of them may affect the Great Artesian Basin, unless we're convinced it's in the best interests of Queensland." 

The Queensland Government made its statement as a court battle continued between Linc Energy and coal seam methane gas producers Queensland Gas concerning access to coal-rich fields in the Surat Basin west of Brisbane. 

Linc Energy has tenements over land near Chinchilla, where it has a pilot plant burning coal underground using technology that originally came out of the Soviet Union. 

But while it has these tenements under the Minerals and Resources Act, Queensland Gas has tenements over the same land under the Petroleum and Natural Gas act. 

This case, in the Queensland Supreme Court, has been continuing this week. 

While multiple tenements have existed before, the main issue in this instance is that production of coal seam methane and underground coal gasification technology are broadly incompatible, because the latter involves burning the former."

As previous posts have stated Lenore appears to have a bias against the industry. There may also be a case for the ASX to investigate her.


----------



## awg

LNC has bounced rapidly to $3.22 at 11.05am

CNX still heading down tho

i would like to kick those journos in the c#^* , even tho they r probably just doing their jobs without any bias at all.


----------



## Calliope

Go Mojohand and ColB. The information on Lenore Taylor's background puts her opinions into perspective. I thought it was interesting that she used an old quote from Christine Milne who is anti UCG rather than one from Martin Ferguson who is optimistic on UCG.


----------



## jaffa

This whole thing from The Australian article to the Department's claimed position is shambolic.

Dukey is spot on with his comments. Having worked in the QLD Government quite a few years ago, and in an area that dealt with the mining companies, the QLD Government will be looking for the option that gives it and the state the best returns. It goes without saying that the Environmental issues will have to be dealt with. 

So if Linc can produce the goods (at a profit of course) and meet the environmental requirements it will be a goer. But clearly there are some risks for us holders. But this was always the case!!!

Disclosure - I hold

Jaffah
Not advice - do your own thing!


----------



## jaffa

More news in todays Australian. probably won't help the SP for Monday!!

***********************************************************
Clash over gas on the plains of western Darling Downs

    * Font Size: Decrease Increase
    * Print Page: Print

Andrew Fraser | August 09, 2008

THE hot, dry rolling plains of the western Darling Downs are dotted with gum trees and the occasional lagoon or animal in what is at best, in a good season, average grazing country.

It's not the area's agricultural potential but what's under the surface that's exciting passions among Australia's investors.

There is, put simply, coal. It has been there for millennia, and now it is mostly being mined to fire power stations such as Kogan Creek or railed to Brisbane for export.

But about 10km out of Chinchilla there's a road on the left which leads to Kummerows Road, where among the spinifex grass there's a tall, metal structure from which, at night, a gas flame often flares.

The fate of this piece of ground was fought out this week in Brisbane's Supreme Court in a battle that will continue next week as two companies have mining leases over the property under different legislation.

The flame is the only above ground sign of underground coal gasification, a process of power generation developed in the old Soviet Union, where it still operates.

It involves producing gas by setting fire to underground coal seams. In this system, air, oxygen or steam, or a combination of the three, is piped into a deep coal seam, which is set on fire to produce fuel gas. Its proponents say UGC can use deep and low-quality coal reserves that can't be used otherwise.

The company trialling the method at Chinchilla, Linc Energy, got the technology from the Soviet Union, and still operates a plant there, in the town of Angren.

Linc is one of three ASX-listed companies trialling UCG, the others being Cougar Energy and Perth-based Carbon Energy. All say it is safe and efficient and does no harm to the environment, but Linc, the most advanced, is still several months off finalising its Environmental Impact Statement, which must be cleared by the Queensland Government. The major environmental problem is that burning coal underground could harm the underground water system, which is no small concern as the ground under Chinchilla contains not only coal but the water of the Great Artesian Basin. There's a an even bigger problem on the Chinchilla holdings -- one that is being canvassed in Queensland's Supreme Court. While Linc is operating its pilot technology under the Minerals and Resources Act, Queensland Gas has tenements over the same land under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Act.

Multiple tenements have existed before, but the main issue in this instance is that production of coal seam methane and underground coal gasification technology are broadly incompatible. UCG involves burning the methane that is the basis of coal seam methane production.

It's exactly this dilemma that the Queensland Government has to confront. CSM is growing quickly in Queensland, and there is considerably more potential in it. It is a proven technology with existing infrastructure and would provide energy, in particular, for the fast-growing southeast Queensland area, about 300km to the east.

While proponents of UCG claim it is a proven technology with no environmental risk, the Queensland Government is being ultra-cautious in its approach. So much so that on Wednesday afternoon, after inquiries from this newspaper, it issued a statement that "the Department of Mines and Energy has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years".

It was a short-term political fix, but when the ASX opened on Wednesday morning the share prices of all three UCG companies were slashed. Linc dropped 13 per cent, Carbon Energy dropped 35 per cent, while Cougar Energy dropped 11.5 per cent.

During the day, the state government's position changed subtly. It issued another statement, this time with no mention of the three-year moratorium. Instead, Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson said the state Government "would only do what was best for Queensland in relation to underground coal gasification technology on trial in the state".

"These projects are in a pilot phase, which is why they have a conditional tenure and that gives no automatic right to a production tenure at a later point," he said.

"We're not about to give the green light to underground coal gasification projects, especially where any of them may affect the Great Artesian Basin, unless we're convinced it's in the best interests of Queensland.

"Any company carrying out trials of this new technology is doing so in the full knowledge of the state Government's stance. This should come as no surprise to anyone."

There was some recovery in share prices yesterday, with Linc gaining 8.5 per cent to finish at $3.20, not that far behind the $3.38 it had been before the state Government's statement.

The debate still has a long way to go. Linc managing director Peter Bond says it's obvious the two technologies can't exist on the same piece of ground -- "two people can't eat the same slice of cake" -- but they can exist close to each other.

"Just throw up a fence, we'll be 500 metres away, and that's fine with us," he said.

"We need a lot less ground. If there's 1000 acres, they could have 900."

The case is continuing in Queensland's Supreme Court, but this is only the start of the debate. At some stage in the next few years, the Government will have to decide which technology to back, or at the very least, how to allocate land between the two.
*********************************************************


----------



## unit

>>the Government will have to decide which technology to back, or at the very least, how to allocate land between the two.

It wont have to decide that at all imo. It will just have to allocate tenements to the best submissions and insure environmental standards are met. That's a bit like saying this is cattle country, can't keep sheep on this land. 
What a joke. I feel embarassed for The Australian.


----------



## mexican

Spot on Unit!
If both industries are going to be worth billions+ and enviro is to standard, well what do you think? Pick one over the other. I don't think so.
Three different journo's have had a go now. What next?
Just another very poor article  from The Australian!


----------



## Santoro

Giving the tenement rights a bit of thought (3 minutes) : ..... I must disclose that I have minimal legal knowledge.....but if a judge would have to decide...which came first the chicken or the egg...he/she may be in trouble...but not so dificult in this case which came first the coal or the gas?


----------



## namrog

In this case both QGC and Lnc want it for the same thing IE - GAS, whichever type, gas is gas.

Does anyone know, who was granted the tennements first, as I'm thinking this might have an influence on any legal decision, not that I know anything about the legal system.

It's the end product that's different though, and diesel is essential for the production of food,among many other things and a governments failure to plan ahead , and have some sort of safety net in place to counter an oil shortage for whatever reasons , which will affect food production, won't be tollerated.
It's why I believe Canberra have such a big interest in Linc, and if they can, will put pressure on ??????? to secure Lincs future.
Federal and state labour ?????

My oppinion only and dyodd.
Re Joe.


----------



## ColB

> "..Cash problem solved
> 
> It isn't easy to fund a $US850 million ($970 million) project these days, even if it involves a lucrative business model like turning coal gas into liquid diesel fuel. But Linc Energy's foresight in picking up a coal tenement in the Bowen Basin should go some way towards helping it solve the funding problem.
> 
> Linc Energy owns the German Creek coking coal measures and is hoping to prove a resource of *500 million tonnes -- by November.* It will then sell the project to the highest bidder, since it is not a part of the company's core alternative energy business. BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi recently paid *$2.5 billion for New Hope's New Saraji coal project, which had 690 million tonnes* of coking coal resources. The closest operations to Linc's coal project, near Emerald, are BHP and Mitsubishi's Gregory Crinum mine, and Rio Tinto's Kestrel mine.
> 
> Linc expects to start producing diesel from a $12 million pilot plant at Chinchilla in southern Queensland in a few weeks before building the larger-scale project, which will produce 20,000 barrels of fuel a day. Linc has brushed aside recent concerns coal-seam gas producers had been granted the rights to the same coal measures it is using for coal-gasification. It has noted that its project has been deemed to be of "state significance" in Queensland and enjoys strong support from the Federal industry minister, Martin Ferguson.  Source: Sydney Morning Herald 12 August 2008




While the SP of this one is getting hammered by the doomsayers just as Carbon Energy has over the past few days why would you sell out of a project with so much potential unless of course you bought in at 25c and are taking profits.


----------



## grace

ColB said:


> While the SP of this one is getting hammered by the doomsayers just as Carbon Energy has over the past few days why would you sell out of a project with so much potential unless of course you bought in at 25c and are taking profits.




I think Linc is holding up pretty well compared to the rest of the market.  It is trading above key resistance, and let's hope it stays that way.  As Col mentions, has plenty of coking coal behind its name, so it's more than just a pilot plant, and the market seems to be giving credit for that.


----------



## jast28

Hi all, not sure if anyone has seen this yet but I received this via email from Janeele van de Velde (Manager Investor Relations & Corporate Communications - Linc Energy).
Good reading and great news.

*The latest BBY Analyst Report which was released 12/8/08*


----------



## Calliope

Hi Jast28. Did you say "good news"? This analysis in not very different from the last one, which was also good news. You have probably noticed lately that the market is not very interested in good news...only bad news. One of the positives that I am hanging my hat on is the marketability of the coking coal tenement (Theresa) at German Creek referred to yesterday by ColB. I feel that this will be a winner.


----------



## grace

ABC Radio Southern QLD received its nearlly weekly call about how Linc was going to the waiting broker yesterday (program every Saturday morning 8.30 to 9.00am finance).

Comments were

1.  Qld govt departments not talking to each other had caused some pain for the csg vs ctl argument, and some pain to Linc's share price.  

2.  Long-term view, in relation to energy production, ctl extract 80% of the available energy, and csg extract only 8%, from the coal seams.  What do you think might be better for QLD?  (was the brokers comment)

Linc tour on Thursday 21/8/08 as part of the Surat Basin Energy conference.  Wonder if we'll have liquids by then?


----------



## cartel31

There was an announcement today! The testing has been completed and the plant handed over to the operations team.

Didn't really affect the price that much. I think there is a lot of people that got hurt by LNC lately. They are trying to offload and get out. See what tm brings.

Its sitting on whats looking like nice and strong support. The indicators are not bad, and looking like there is a bull run even though it may be short on its way IMO. 

The XEJ also is looking nice and seems to be on the beginning of a uptrend. I think with the reporting season and the fact that the energy sector has done very well this year due high energy prices people are channeling money back into the sector to ride these stocks due to increased earnings. Even though oil has dropped so much in price the sector has just started moving in a upward direction in my opinion.

Out of all the sectors at the moment the chart for the energy sector seems to be the most inviting. Looking like its at the beginning of a bullrun IMO.

I actually bought in today and I hope I done the right move, God Willing!

I'm still a newbie so no body take me seriously at all!


----------



## Goldmann

More LNC comentary from the DR...  just an excerpt... subscribe to their newsletter if you havent already...

--What about the Black Leaf project you read about here and in Money Morning recently? Has it been badly compromised by bureaucratic dithering and sleight of hand? 

--Our view is short and simple: if Queensland misses the boat on turning stranded coal seams into liquid fuel through underground coal gasification (UCG) and gas-to-liquids (GTL), it will be Queensland's (and Australia's) loss. But the business plan of the share we tipped to our small-cap readers, though unsettled by the ambiguity of the government's positions, does not depend on operating commercially in Queensland. 

--In fact, the plan goes beyond that, to coal in Indonesia, China, and Wyoming in the U.S. These are all places that are more than willing to look at a technology that turns coal into transportation fuel. Like it or loathe it, you at least know you can get energy from coal. Australia might not pursue this course. But plenty of others will. 

----------------------------------------

certainly not as strong as the "buy this stock and you will be rich by June 2009" claims of last month, but still positive, and from someone who seems to call a spade a spade...

Qld (where i live) Govt appears to be turning back the clock to the Sir Joh era of late... bumbling fools.


----------



## Calliope

Hi Goldman. Bumbling fools may be right.  As for Sir Joh, he certainly had a lot of short-comings, but the failure to recognise a good business opportunity was not one of them. Under his regime a Linc CTG/GTL project would have been fast-tracked to get the jump on the other states. Of course he would have given the Greenies short shrift.


----------



## Goldmann

hahahaha yeah your right... i meant more the perception from others that Qld was a backwards state...

but yeah - Joh was king of the "knock them down while they sleep" development theory hahaha... he was the one who made the Greenies turn into a 24 hour 7 days a week cause...

As a side note, got the new LNC newsletter in the post... Geez they are ramping it up, Bond in particular could not be more positive - no mention of the QGC debacle though... JORC later this month from Chinchilla if i read correctly, and aiming for a 1 billion tonne resource JORC'd by year end??? might be time to buy some more.


----------



## ColB

*Originally posted by Goldman*



> As a side note, got the new LNC newsletter in the post... Geez they are ramping it up, Bond in particular could not be more positive - no mention of the QGC debacle though... JORC later this month from Chinchilla if i read correctly, and aiming for a 1 billion tonne resource JORC'd by year end??? might be time to buy some more.




LNC does seem to be gathering some momentum in the last couple of days.  The buy/sell ratio is also *slowly* turning in our favour.  

Any technical analysts out there wish to provide their thoughts on this one (please)

I tend to think the announcements due out soon relating to successful commissioning of the pilot plant and coking coal deposits at Emerald will obviously kick it along but am wondering in the abscence of those reports what a technical analyst sees in the next couple of weeks.


----------



## grace

Not a techno Col, but it is sitting on key support.  Holding up well.  Noone really selling too many at these levels though.  Just seem to be awaiting news I would think.


----------



## korrupt_1

Not much a chartist... but I'll give it a go...

Can see a descending triangle forming... with the base sitting around $2.60-$270. This is the first line of defence againts downward pressure. With 50% Fib line here aswell, we're at an important price level. If we want to see higher price, this line MUST hold.

Can see heavy resistance on the way up. 38% Fib line at $3.23 and the gap ($3.26-$3.40) will need to be filled before any higher prices can be seen. The red downard trendline will also contain prices.

Stochastics and MACDs are turning higher which is a good sign.

Still the prevailing trend is down - but it is forming a bottoming pattern in the last few days so perhaps this could be a key turning point.

I can't see any bullish pattern forming yet and volume is not inspiring.

Disclosure: I am a LNC shareholder.


----------



## eric35

It seems to have formed a solid base, is still above the 150 day EMA and has formed a nice triangle. I would like to see it break out up from the triangle, if possible with a bit of volume, before I buy.

However overall I like the chart, although the RSI is still below 50 and the parabolics are still not good.


----------



## basilio

Nice to see LINC start to move and or course I also saw the newsletter.

Very colourful.... I was a bit concerned to see the great graph showing the upward  movement of LINC shares but not tracking the falls in the last couple of months. Are we supposed to not notice what has happened or is this  simply marketing 101 and par for the course. Any thoughts?


----------



## eric35

LNC taking off nicely. 306 now

Interesting to see how the volume today pans out.

Could well reach top of triangle next few days


----------



## ColB

*Originally posted by Basilio*


> *Very colourful.... I was a bit concerned to see the great graph showing the upward movement of LINC shares but not tracking the falls in the last couple of months. Are we supposed to not notice what has happened or is this simply marketing 101 and par for the course. Any thoughts?*




I had a laugh when I saw that chart Basilio, but then it would not be like Peter Bond to have anything negative in the newsletter.  He'd wannabee confident, he owns half the company.

Good day today though.

PS Thanks for your technical analysis Korrupt!  Good work.


----------



## grace

Linc tour was yesterday - did anyone go?  Might spark a bit of buying from the energy conference Surat Basin over these couple of days.  CSG'ers are there too.


----------



## korrupt_1

Happy to see LNC heading in the right direction 

Still some hurdles to cross... some very high ones too... 

I think a breakout of around the $3.40 zone might see it propelled higher to atleast around the high $3's...

Just hope more good news to come else we could easily settle back to support


----------



## 0239666

Is the current price (3.30) a good one to buy at, I'm willing to hold for a while?
Are they already in the process of converting the gas to diesel?
How long before they are producing 20,000 barrels a day?


----------



## grace

0239666 said:


> Is the current price (3.30) a good one to buy at, I'm willing to hold for a while?
> Are they already in the process of converting the gas to diesel?
> How long before they are producing 20,000 barrels a day?




Noone on this site is allowed to tell you if you should be buying or selling.
Pilot plant (10 barrels/day) is currently in final commissioning.

20 000 barrels won't be for some time yet.  Read back over this thread, or some of the investor presentations released.  This will give you a better idea about what to expect from now on.

Some brokers have given valuations on Linc.  These have been "linked" on this thread, or you will find them on Linc's website, which is also a good site for other information.  Good Luck.  I hold.


----------



## bluekat

Firstly, I would like to thank all the contributors to this thread. 
To holders of Linc stock, this is our time in the sun, as good as it gets.
We know the timetable of coming events. Media coverage will add to the SP.
Good luck to all.


----------



## Pigsy

Some nice movement upwards last few days to break the downward trendline as seen in the chart above.  Would like to see it break through the close of $3.97 on July 23 before I'm fully convinced this one is on the way back.  I'm holding ..... because if I sell now it's a big loss!!!!


----------



## Mickel

I refer to Mojohand's post on Aug 9, ie-


"I'm not sure if the forum members here are aware of this but it was revealed on the HC Forum that the article's author, Lenora Taylor, ran as a Greens candidate in 2004 in the seat of Moggill. Frankly those Green credentials should have been disclosed in the article allowing readers to understand her personal feelings toward UCG and CTL. Instead the article is disguised as a piece of "impartial journalism"."

On checking the DR site today- http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/coal-seam-methane/2008/08/07/

I found the following post from the author of the original article- 

"Comment by Lenore Taylor on 9 August 2008:

I just signed on to see what Dan Denning did with the information I sent him last week and have found this defamatory nonsense from Hotcopper about me allegedly being a Greens candidate. Of course noone stopped to check. Hadthey done so they would have discovered that there are (at least) two people with the name Lenore Taylor in Australia - one regularly runs for the Greens and the other is me - national correspondent for The Australian. Of course no political correspondent would be a member of a political party, let alone run in elections. And Dan, those are indeed the views of the department, as provided to me in the written document I sent you...Lenore Taylor (the political correspondent, not the candidate)."

So, we should be careful with posts from forums especially if from a different forum.

Disclosure- I hold both LNC and CNX


----------



## Go Nuke

HAHAHA that so funny.

Caught out!:hide:

Good to see LNC up today.
Looks to have closed above its current downtrend, however a few bad days on the DOW and it might look like its resumed.

HOWEVER...Im sure there must be people sitting just on the sidelines till more good news regarding the GTL comes out

Exciting future ahead......I hope


----------



## Calliope

There's some movement going on here. The price is slowly but surely creeping back to $3.70, which is where a lot of people came in. It must give them heart.


----------



## bluekat

Looking forward to final commissioning of pilot plant, Bond stated 14-21days on the 18th of August. Lets hope linc meets this deadline.


----------



## Goldmann

Calliope said:


> There's some movement going on here. The price is slowly but surely creeping back to $3.70, which is where a lot of people came in. It must give them heart.




how did you know.... i had a buy order in at 2.60 last week that would of taken my entry down to 3.05, and it only got as low as 2.70.... bugger... and i can still hear the advice of my mentor saying dont let a few cents cost you a lot more in the long run...


----------



## Calliope

What happened today? Why are lemmings on the run? What spooked them? If anyone has an explanation I would like to hear it. CNX took a hiding too. It could be something to do with UCG. There was a 11.7% drop from the high to the low.


----------



## bluekat

Calliope, I wish I could add some light, up early then hammered at 1pm.
Short selling ?. I would have expected volume to drop off slightly pending final commissioning. Again I wish I could explain yesterday, but I cannot.
Has anyone got a view on yesterday?.


----------



## Goldmann

Energy prices down across the board is my only explanation... Oil is getting hammered, and with it goes gas... look at QGC now down around $4, and they are actually producing and selling.

This stocks potential is magnified by a high oil price, so when it drops their will always be a correlation...

I may yet get my sub-$3 restock.

IMO all this tooing and froing is neither here nor there until the plant is commissioned... but it would be nice if the commisiong announcement is made when the stock is above $3.70 - then its all gravy...


----------



## 0239666

I just bought some of these today. Im kinda happy I got a good price before commisioning starts. Could the drop be something to do with extra expenses (overtime, extra resources....) incurred for preparation of the final commisioning. They are probably driving to meet the deadline.


----------



## bluekat

Any costs from hereon are minimal.
Cannot work it out.
 The technology is proven, ie; Sasol in South Africa gas to liquids. In Russia and the US coal to gas to liquids.
Linc has said that it can improve the results. ok
Production cost refined $29.00. Does anyone know the cost to refine a barrel, minimal I guess.
Petroleum say $105, BBY used $75 ( hey unlikely ever again )PS $5.5-6.5 sh.
Australia has unlimited coal too deep to cost effectively mine ( all over Australia not just the Surat basin), now we can burn it and turn into diesel and jet fuel.
The Sapex merger was well thought out. Any state ( any Country ) are going welcome Linc with open arms.
So commissioning this week ( heavy rain expected ) maybe next week, and the price is down to $3.10. Can you believe it.


----------



## 0239666

If South Africa are doing Gas to Liquids, and US and Russia are doing coal to gas to liquids, what part makes Linc Energy a worlds first?


----------



## Calliope

0239666 said:


> If South Africa are doing Gas to Liquids, and US and Russia are doing coal to gas to liquids, what part makes Linc Energy a worlds first?




The South African Sasol project produces gas from mined coal. The gas then goes through the gas to liquids (GTL) process. This is a highly pollutant industry.

In Russia (and Uzbekistan) they do use the underground coal gasification (UCG) process, however Russia is rich in oil and is not interested in GTL. They use the syngas produced for power generation.

The Linc project are pioneers in that they they will be combining UCG and GTL in a continous integrated processs on the one site, with minimal environmental impact.


----------



## jast28

*Today's Announcement 5 Sept 08*
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080905/pdf/31c4p840w8f0qj.pdf 

I noticed it is actually going into the ASX 200 as well which is even better than the 300

What it means is that funds such as index funds who replicate the ASX 200 or 300 will have to buy the stock so it may mean the price goes up depending on supply and demand. It will also mean the stock is on the radar of more fund managers and stockbroking analysts who concentrate on analysing companies in the top 200 also potentially leading to the price rising if they recommend it as a buy.

NOTE: NOT INTENDED AS ANY TYPE OF ADVICE


----------



## grace

Sale of emerald coking coal deposit for $1.5 billion.  Nice one Linc.  Plenty of cash now thanks.  Is that more than the mc?


----------



## Pigsy

No one saw that sale coming not even the market as the sp had been falling for the last few days!  They didn't even announce a trading halt prior to the announcement.  Maybe I was right holding this stock.


----------



## Calliope

Doesn't it give you a good feeling about the last three days. Some idiots started it and all the lemmings headed over the cliff. I hope you true believers topped up.

I refer you to my post 268


----------



## mexican

WOW. 1.5 bill $$$$$$$$$$$. Looks like this is a start of great news to come.
The long wait has been worth while Grace!
1.5 bill $$$$$$$$ WOW!


----------



## Goldmann

ye har... and in the process of topping up in the fire sale on RIV, MOL and LNC - i scored some more LNC at 2.90. 

what a lovely friday it is. go bondy you good thing.


----------



## 0239666

Wow. 35% jump on opening. Who here is still holding. Do you reckon there is more of a rise up ahead?


----------



## mhar9655

I'm a holder of CNX and I have been reading this forum about LNC for a while now.  This morning after reading some of these posts I decided to buy LNC for $2.99 and now look at it!!!!  I would like to thank you all for such good info!

Michael


----------



## bluekat

Decided to sell at $4.25, I will let the dust settle, as I think commissioning is 7 days plus away. Maybe buy back in around $3.60 if I get the chance.
Wait to see what the markets doing, some good buys this month as traditionally the miners take a dive in September.


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> WOW. 1.5 bill $$$$$$$$$$$. Looks like this is a start of great news to come.
> The long wait has been worth while Grace!
> 1.5 bill $$$$$$$$ WOW!




It's my stock pick this month in the comp.......third time lucky I hope!  Yes, it has been a nice ride Mexican, and the funny thing is, I don't even feel anywhere near to selling her!  It has been so kind to me!


----------



## mexican

grace said:


> It's my stock pick this month in the comp.......third time lucky I hope!  Yes, it has been a nice ride Mexican, and the funny thing is, I don't even feel anywhere near to selling her!  It has been so kind to me!




No not selling........diesel should be next week. No I will be with LNC for a while yet!
Still think that deal in the States is hanging around.
This ride is going to get even better!


----------



## flipztacy

I envy you guys whos stayed!!!.  i get too impatient n sell to quickly.. gotta love LNC. ive always lost either by selling it too early or the sp plummets. still gotta love it.


----------



## korrupt_1

almost sold it yesterday for a tiny profit - then hoping to get back in when it's a little lower... guess that would have been a mistake... still holding and targeting the last intraday highs at $4.90's


----------



## Calliope

grace said:


> It's my stock pick this month in the comp.......third time lucky I hope!  Yes, it has been a nice ride Mexican, and the funny thing is, I don't even feel anywhere near to selling her!  It has been so kind to me!




I bought these stocks way back and it has been a rollercoaster ride. I have been tempted many times (remember when they nearly reached $5.00). I am staying all the way.


----------



## korrupt_1

Calliope said:


> I bought these stocks way back and it has been a rollercoaster ride. I have been tempted many times (remember when they nearly reached $5.00). I am staying all the way.





Hi calliope, 

And where is all the way????

They get bought out by someone like BHP or WPL???



--------------------------------


----------



## Go Nuke

Well the best thing I did was sell out of FMG, but bought LNC at around $4...right before the sp took a dive (typical)...so I'm not really ahead. Though glad to hear there is more good news just around the corner.

I read the announcemnt just after it came out, but know very little about the market, so didn't know the significance of what $1.5Bil would do for the sp on a day like today.
Shame I didnt "buy at market" while reading the ann

Now I know


----------



## Mickel

korrupt_1 said:


> Hi calliope,
> 
> And where is all the way????
> 
> They get bought out by someone like BHP or WPL???
> 
> 
> 
> --------------------------------




Don't forget MD Peter Bond owns over 50% of the company and he gives indications that he wishes to see Linc reach its full potential. So no sale of Linc is likely in the near future.

Also with less than 500m shares the $1.5 billion equates to over $3 per share.

It will be interesting to see BBY's latest report and valuation.

Disclosure -I hold LNC shares (and will for the next 5 years at least).


----------



## grace

BRR just out.  Money will more than cover commercial plant at Chinchilla estimated at $900 million.

Literally only a few days from feeding gas, and then a few days for liquid.

On the home run now......

http://www.brr.com.au/event/51086/linc-enters-agreement-to-sell-permits-for-15-billion


----------



## Calliope

grace said:


> BRR just out.  Money will more than cover commercial plant at Chinchilla estimated at $900 million.
> 
> Literally only a few days from feeding gas, and then a few days for liquid.
> 
> On the home run now......
> 
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/51086/linc-enters-agreement-to-sell-permits-for-15-billion




It's an amazing feat Grace,to be able to embark on a project like this without borrowings, or go cap in hand to anyone for a handout


----------



## ColB

> I'm a holder of CNX and I have been reading this forum about LNC for a while now. This morning after reading some of these posts I decided to buy LNC for $2.99 and now look at it!!!! I would like to thank you all for such good info!  Michael




What a difference 30 minutes makes Michael.  You nearly missed it!  I've broken all the rules in this one. (80% of my portfolio)   Have accumulated heaps over the months and sold just under half of my holding today (60,000 shares) to take some profit.  Like many here, we have been through a very choppy ride testing those stomach muscles out on several occasions.  

I'm hanging on to the rest of my parcel for the commisioning of liquids and all those other deals (existing MOU's) that Bondy will do with Vietnam, China, India the US and who knows who else.

Thanks for the tip Grace! Col B


----------



## grace

ColB said:


> I've broken all the rules in this one. (80% of my portfolio)   Have accumulated heaps over the months and sold just under half of my holding today (60,000 shares) to take some profit.  Like many here, we have been through a very choppy ride testing those stomach muscles out on several occasions.
> 
> I'm hanging on to the rest of my parcel for the commisioning of liquids and all those other deals (existing MOU's) that Bondy will do with Vietnam, China, India the US and who knows who else.
> 
> Thanks for the tip Grace! Col B




Well done Col - 80% of your portfolio hey.......well done!

Actually, I'm thinking of topping up again on my holding.  I just can't think of a good reason why I should sell it, so I'm not going to.  It is No 1 too in my portfolio (just slips in above my BHP holding), although I have some 30 or 40 stocks, so it's probably only about 10%.  Still, have to be happy with that.


----------



## michael_selway

grace said:


> Well done Col - 80% of your portfolio hey.......well done!
> 
> Actually, I'm thinking of topping up again on my holding.  I just can't think of a good reason why I should sell it, so I'm not going to.  It is No 1 too in my portfolio (just slips in above my BHP holding), although I have some 30 or 40 stocks, so it's probably only about 10%.  Still, have to be happy with that.




hehe yeah its all about the raw coal, they didnt want the CTL at all









> Date: 8/8/2008
> Author: Andrew Fraser
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 23
> Australian-listed Linc Energy is a proponent of coal gasification technology inQueensland. However, this method has come under a cloud after the StateGovernment appeared to favour the rival coalbed methane sector instead. Minesand Energy Minister Geoff Wilson has had to retract an earlier statement inwhich a three-year ban on the granting of any licences for coal gasification wasmentioned. Linc's stock still fell $A0.45 on 7 August 2008 to close at$A2.98. It is also involved in a legal case with coalbed methane companyQueensland Gas over access to land in the Surat Basin





thanks

MS


----------



## ColB

> hehe yeah its all about the raw coal, they didnt want the CTL at all




Mike, LINC always stated that the Coal tenement purchase was solely to prove up and onsell to fund their 20,000 barrell GTL Plant at Chinchilla.  I'm assuming your comment is tongue in cheek??

What I'd be interested to know is with the merger with SAPEX and acquiring the huge Arckaringa Basin reserves that come with it I assume they will one day establish a GTL Plant there as well.  The potential of this company in terms of expansion appears promising to say the least.

We just have to wait and see that the GTL technology actually works and surely this one will go beyond 5 bucks.  Good luck to all.


----------



## mexican

Not to sure what your are on about as well MS.
LNC have a MOU with Huadian Coal Industry Group in China.
The court battle over the tenements are not worth worrying about.


----------



## Pigsy

ColB said:


> We just have to wait and see that the GTL technology actually works and surely this one will go beyond 5 bucks.  Good luck to all.




You've got to wonder if $5 is only the start of this ride. It's been as high as $4.92 and now it in the ASX200 it's going to get a lot more attention. Remember this is only day 1 and the US market hasn't opened yet. It could just skyrocket given the market is in the doldrums.


----------



## Calliope

I had a look at today's papers to see what sort of spin they would put on the German Creek coalfield sale . It was all positive. I haven't seen the Fin Review. The field has not been fully explored but Bondy said it was an offer too good to be refused. It is a good thing that this man owns over half the company otherwise he would have been headhunted by the big boys long ago.


----------



## grace

Calliope said:


> I had a look at today's papers to see what sort of spin they would put on the German Creek coalfield sale . It was all positive. I haven't seen the Fin Review. The field has not been fully explored but Bondy said it was an offer too good to be refused. It is a good thing that this man owns over half the company otherwise he would have been headhunted by the big boys long ago.




Front page of fin review so I hear.  Don't you just love the headline in the Courier Mail today "$250 million - not bad for a days work hey?" with a mighty smile from the PB.  Let's hope all of that money doesn't go to his head.  It's only on paper as we all say anyway.  Good coverage on ABC Southern Qld this morning as well.


----------



## grace

grace said:


> BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP.  Looks like they like the idea.  Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.
> 
> Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10
> 
> Here is the link
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf




Just looking back at some valuations here from BBY.

DCF at $65/barrel is $5.50.  HOWEVER, this is with 70% debt, 30% equity through capital raising.  WE DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT NOW.

So, we can assume some new valuations with some substancially higher price targets over the next 12 months.  For a start, we will have $3.75 PER SHARE IN CASH!  (ie $1.5bill/400 mill shares).

Can we just add $3.75 to $5.50 (base case at $65/barrel)
New target $9.25  (based on new tangible assets).


AND, if we use oil at US$100/barrel
DCF $9.03 + $3.75 cash per share
$12.78 share

Just throwing a few figures around.  Can expect new broker targets out fairly soon I would think.

Plenty of growth in this one yet using my calculations!


----------



## namrog

Yep, and the great thing about linc, is that it is still in its infancy.

Great to see a plan comming together, step by step before our very eyes.

PB and management doing a great job, hope the success doesn't blow their heads off, and they continue to build Linc into a world force in energy.


----------



## The Dealer

Told you my price by Christmas!
Had all my posts taken off the message board too.
Put your valuation methods away. They will be wrong and you shocked.
Will be keeping my mouth shut from now on. Don't want to be seen ramping.


----------



## nrusky

Had to smile when I read the BBY report where they stated we have put a conservative valuation of $100 million on the coking coal deposits.


----------



## michael_selway

nrusky said:


> Had to smile when I read the BBY report where they stated we have put a conservative valuation of $100 million on the coking coal deposits.




Hi do you have a link and page number etc?

thx

MS

http://news.smh.com.au/business/linc-looks-to-15b-china-coal-deal-20080905-4al6.html


----------



## michael_selway

mexican said:


> Not to sure what your are on about as well MS.
> LNC have a MOU with Huadian Coal Industry Group in China.
> The court battle over the tenements are not worth worrying about.




Basically the Chinese just wanted to buy the potential coal deposits in QLD, they didnt care about the CTL crap that LNC is trying to do? Would that be reasonable or am I incorrect?

http://news.smh.com.au/business/linc-looks-to-15b-china-coal-deal-20080905-4al6.html



> Linc chief executive Peter Bond said the conglomerate wanted the Queensland coking coal tenements as stock feed for its Chinese steel mills.




http://www.lincenergy.com.au/linc_energy_high.wmv

thx

MS


----------



## Calliope

I was impressed by the article on Peter Bond titled "Business Leader Q&A: Peter Bond from news.com.au on Sep 3.

www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-158.jpg

 What is particularly worth noting are his comments under the heading "Beating the big guys". I think he recognises how dangerous the politicians and their bureaucrats are to the aspirations of entrepeneurs in the business world.

 If only we had politicians who could think outside the square like PB the future of a low emissions resources industry would be assured.


----------



## nrusky

michael_selway said:


> Hi do you have a link and page number etc?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS
> 
> The link is in Graces thread from yesterday.


----------



## grace

The Dealer said:


> Told you my price by Christmas!
> Had all my posts taken off the message board too.
> Put your valuation methods away. They will be wrong and you shocked.
> Will be keeping my mouth shut from now on. Don't want to be seen ramping.




Hi Dealer, I would be interested in your thoughts.

Now that a few more boxes have been ticked, there is much lower risk on this stock, and hopefully even less in the coming week or two.  What is your price by Christmas?  All you need is a bit of backup and your post won't get wiped.  Please post away, thanks.


----------



## luckypaul

Hi guys and girls, been following your threads for sometime now, although only just joined. I bought Linc 13 months ago at 64c and bought some more at $3.70 so very happy with recent move. This could be a great month ahead..and Grace's re-valuation is potentially very exciting. 

Don't forget though - if the Sapex merger goes ahead there is potentially a need to build 2 commercial size plants, 1 in Chincilla and one on the Sapex tenements. Double the cost (which would eat into the Chinese cash) but twice the return...and in a different state should Queensland be scared/tardy to go ahead. Also, should proof of concept be confirmed soon, knowledge can be licenced/sold to China, Vietnam, Japan and all the other interested parties from overseas which may take the Russian example as proof enough on the Environmental front. They will want to build commercial plants in their own countries and further existing MOU's. 

This is *MASSIVE* and it's going to be an exciting month. I only hope the worsening situation in the global markets will leave Linc well enough alone! Live Long and Prosper folks, LuckyPaul (Thailand)


----------



## Jimminy

what do you guys think of the new front fence along kummerows road?? Not a bad effort - laser makes a difference. Straight as an arrow.

Things looking good still.

Nice profit the last two trading days for us!!


----------



## Calliope

korrupt_1 said:


> Hi calliope,
> 
> And where is all the way????
> 
> They get bought out by someone like BHP or WPL???
> 
> 
> 
> --------------------------------




When I first bought this stock the friend who recommended it to me remarked that one day it would be as big as Santos, which was my favoured resource stock at that time. I am staying until it is.


----------



## dale

grace said:


> Just looking back at some valuations here from BBY.
> 
> DCF at $65/barrel is $5.50.  HOWEVER, this is with 70% debt, 30% equity through capital raising.  WE DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT NOW.
> 
> So, we can assume some new valuations with some substancially higher price targets over the next 12 months.  For a start, we will have $3.75 PER SHARE IN CASH!  (ie $1.5bill/400 mill shares).
> 
> Can we just add $3.75 to $5.50 (base case at $65/barrel)
> New target $9.25  (based on new tangible assets).
> 
> 
> AND, if we use oil at US$100/barrel
> DCF $9.03 + $3.75 cash per share
> $12.78 share
> 
> Just throwing a few figures around.  Can expect new broker targets out fairly soon I would think.
> 
> Plenty of growth in this one yet using my calculations!




hey guys has anybody caught any new broker reports since these boys flogged $1.5b?

cheers
dale


----------



## 0239666

If a company is bought out, what happens to stock. Is the company liquidated and the investors are paid out or do the stocks still hold up in the new company?


----------



## Calliope

dale said:


> hey guys has anybody caught any new broker reports since these boys flogged $1.5b?
> 
> cheers
> dale




This may not happen until LNC is added to the S&P/ASX200 at close of trade September 19. Their interest will then pick up.


----------



## grace

New DCF valuation by BBY at $7.43/share.

They've been busy!

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-17.pdf


----------



## awg

not sure when the index funds do there buying

S&P 200 will be dated as per previous post

as per SMH Top Companies by Cap, as of 5/9, Linc is No 114 at SP of $4.35

So there will be no ignoring it.

would be real interested to hear thoughts on how they (the index style funds) do their buying, and what percentage of the market they may constitute..are they buying now?

if they all wait till the official release of the new SP200, u could only imagine fairly strong buying pressure, especially if Linc slot into the top 100.

awaiting trial announcements etc keenly 

all to the better, as i am a true believer, as per post 236 and others.



tony


----------



## Onethong

Yahoo up we go.. Gann swing shows continuing up trend. It's nice to be green:CNX continues to ride on the coat tails of LNC


----------



## grace

Nice to see Linc bounce off $4 this morning.  I am hoping that $4 should be the new base now with a bucket load of cash coming ($3.75 per share) and a new upgraded coal resource of 600 million tonne (was 400).  Target 1 to 1.5 billion tonne.


----------



## bluekat

Given the sale of emerald at 1.5 bl.
And the boxes are all ticked upon commissioning of the pilot plant.
Does Linc consider the building two 20,000 bpd plants, one in QLD and the second in SA, two stages behind the Qld plant. I say this as the resource sale was expected to 1bl. Any thoughts. That would be 1.5 bl net profit from two plants per annum.
And given the the MOU's, other parties provide the capital and linc builds and manages operations for say $20 per barrel. Any thoughts. Makes you wonder about the opportunities ahead.


----------



## mexican

michael_selway said:


> Basically the Chinese just wanted to buy the potential coal deposits in QLD, they didnt care about the CTL crap that LNC is trying to do? Would that be reasonable or am I incorrect?
> 
> I think todays announcement answer's your question.


----------



## The Dealer

China's in!
Now we wait for the yanks. Mc Cain's promise if he wins, "to make America energy self sufficient". How is he going to do that? They still are the biggest uses of of oil and rely heavily on imported oil. They need an alternative that is home based.

All these governments want to reduce carbon footprint by up to 30%. Rudd has already signed us up to Kyoto and promising reductions. Alternatives are the only way. I bet all you threaders have shares in solar, geothermal etc?? I know I do. Oil is about to dry up (well the stuff that's easy to get anyway). You can't run huge mining equipment on solar or geothermal. They will still need stuff to put in the fuel tank.

Also saw yesterday in the Daily Reckoning that one reason that OPEC are moderating supply and keeping oil at reasonable price levels is they see that if the oil price is too high big players are throwing money at alternatives far quicker.
The yanks have something up their sleeve. You don't go giving worthless paper money for oil without a long term plan.


----------



## Mickel

Quoting the last paragraph of todays announcement-

“The opportunity with the Xinwen Mining Group in China, along with our projects in Vietnam, possible future opportunities in the USA and our current merger with SAPEX present Linc Energy with several options that will allow a fast track to commercialisation for our shareholders. With so many opportunities presenting themselves, Linc Energy will be completing an evaluation process to prioritise its projects and ensure that the best project is commercialised first. I am committed to creating a commercial UCG to GTL facility for Linc Energy shareholders in the near future.”

the pressure is on the Qld and Aust Governments to allow the 20,000 bpd plant to proceed with haste, having regard to sensible environmental issues. Otherwise Linc will move overseas to the detriment of Qld and Aust communities because of royalties, excise tax and lack of fuel security.


----------



## mexican

Once the fuel flows, the deals (projects) that LNC will have overseas will make what projects LNC have here in Australia look very small!
Thats in my own opinion.
In the next two months we will know.


----------



## bluekat

Just letting LNG holders know:
 On the business channel ( market movers ) they featured LNG briefly, a guest analyst had visited the plant all day Tuesday and mentioned that they are two weeks away from liquids. ( yes rollercoaster ride Calliope )
 When asked about a target price for LNG, seemed very positive, "we have held  LNG since $0.47 and have been purchasing more stock lately, we have a in house target price."

Not sure why he did not respond to the direct target price question?.


----------



## Calliope

mexican said:


> Once the fuel flows, the deals (projects) that LNC will have overseas will make what projects LNC have here in Australia look very small!
> Thats in my own opinion.
> In the next two months we will know.




I agree. What Linc has done is taken out insurance against the negativity of politicians and bureaucrats when considering resources development. Much of  government dithering is due to the strong influence of lobbyists. Without the entrepeneurs this country would be a basket case. Luckily the Chinese are more interested in progress.


----------



## Mickel

LNC annual report out today.

From MD's report-

"*Linc Carbon Solutions*
Linc Energy entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and then a Joint Venture contract with BioCleanCoal with the
aim of creating a Joint Venture company that can produce a solution to the processing of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) sources. The
aim is to create a bioreactor which has the ability to absorb CO2 at one end, and to produce oxygen and biomass from the other.
The project name for this unit is the ‘Green Box’. I am pleased to note that the ‘Green Box’ is making good progress and that the
partnership with BioCleanCoal has been going extremely well. Our Linc Energy Project Manager on the ‘Green Box’ is Mariano
Minotti who is the longest serving employee at Linc Energy (other than myself) and is doing an outstanding job ensuring Linc
Energy and its partner have the ability to produce this extraordinarily cost-effective and environmentally friendly diesel in the
future with a very small CO2 footprint. In fact, we will aim to have one of the smallest CO2 footprints in the world. The ‘Green
Box’ will become an exciting business avenue for the Company. I am looking forward to the first ‘Green Box’ demonstration unit
being operational at Chinchilla before the end of 2009.

*Outlook*
The outlook for the Company is very exciting. Indeed, you would have to say the potential that Linc Energy has is nothing less
than outstanding. Linc Energy has numerous options at its fingertips to progress to our next step of commercialisation. Linc
Energy is currently assessing these options to determine the first and best commercial project. *This may be Chinchilla in
Queensland but could just as well be the SAPEX area in South Australia. *Successful construction of the commercial UCG to
GTL plant is Linc Energy’s total focus.
Over the coming twelve months, finalising the feasibility and engineering of the commercial plant with the aim of getting to the
point that we can start to break ground in the very near future will be our total aim. In addition to that, the design of the
commercial plant will be completed in such a way that it is basically a ‘cookie-cutter’ enabling easy replication on just about any
site in any location.
With that in mind, driving the significant assets that we have acquired through SAPEX, and indeed how quickly we can
commercialise those assets in South Australia, will be extremely important. They are truly world-class and something that Linc
Energy will be pursuing aggressively.
I look forward to building on these early successes over the coming twelve months with our driving steps towards creating the
first UCG to GTL commercial operation in the world and one that will take Linc Energy to its next level.

Peter Bond
Managing Director"

Some good info there to satisify environmentalists and put pressure on Qld Govt to approve commercial plant of 20,000 bpd in a timely manner.


----------



## bensoules

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=203124

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=203124



.


----------



## grace

From the Annual Report, Linc is one the top three performing stocks on the ASX.  In this bear market, I can honestly say it is nice to have some one of these sitting in the portfolio!



> Top Three Performing Stock
> 
> Linc Energy’s share price has not only outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, but it has been ranked one of the top three best performing stocks on the ASX for the 2007-2008 financial year.
> 
> In this period, Linc Energy’s share price rose by nearly 600% closing on 30 June 2008 at $3.86.




.....and still climbing since then.


----------



## 0239666

How goes the pilot plant? Where can I get a day to day progress report? Or is that possible? It should be due to start producing soon I think.


----------



## ColB

On 12th September Bluekat wrote 







> Just letting LNG holders know:
> On the business channel ( market movers ) they featured LNG briefly, a guest analyst had visited the plant all day Tuesday and mentioned that they are *two weeks away from liquids*.




Hope that answers your question 0239666.  That should make it no later than 26th September.  It will be interesting to see what happens when this lists on the ASX 200.  I would appreciate any comments from experienced traders/investors as to their thoughts on LNC's inclusion in the ASX200


----------



## mortsta

er blah blah blah...
china will be the biggest investor in the world in green technologys
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/09/16/eachina116.xml


----------



## The Dealer

mortsta said:


> er blah blah blah...
> china will be the biggest investor in the world in green technologys
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/09/16/eachina116.xml




What's your point??
That's all about power!
How do they propose to make those cranes and machinery work on wind??
Need to put diesel in them to make them move.

For those who saw my price before Christmas, no change.
Good buying day today.
Do your own maths on it, market cap after sale goes ahead / number of shares. Then add what you like when they turn on the liquids. 
The let them do it in several other countries. Like China!! Or the US!!


----------



## The Dealer

Love it!!!
Hope you all enjoyed the last ten minutes of trade today.
Will wait for good news from LNC on oil. Shouldn't be long now.


----------



## awg

well i feel like abit of a dill

i posted it goes on to the SP200 on the 19th (today) and enquired when the instos do there buying

got no replies...think i have my answer now!

at least i am a holder!


----------



## mexican

Spot on Dealer. She came home like a train. Could be very close.
Was reading a article on LNC's tenements. I did not know that they had so many. Emerald being the best quality but only 3.4% of what LNC have! Amazing!


----------



## Calliope

Millions of shares traded at the bell for 5.00. WOW. Somebody knows something. We have been here before but this looks solid.


----------



## Go Nuke

Yeah!!

Have a look at the money that went through after 4pm!!!!!!

HUGE dollars!
Thats amazing
Why oh why did I buy PDN 2 days ago!! I'm an idiot. Had to sell it for a loss today.
Sometimes I think i should give the shares game away before I send myself broke (nearly there so what the hell! )

Al least i hold a very small parcel of LNC still and not FMG


----------



## oldblue

Seems that LNC and a couple of others have been included in the S&P ASX 200 - hence the rush to buy, presumably by index funds and the like.


----------



## grace

Well, I've been around Linc territory the last few days....couldn't get any gossip though.   A bit unreliable aren't I.  I have to thank the fundies for putting me up on top of the leaderboard for now with all of that buying.


----------



## Pigsy

Wow can you believe that. I've been buying LNC on the lows and selling on the highs, but I didn't expect this today. They've cleaned me out I've got none left.  Pondering what to do Monday, I guess the market going to tell me that.

Question ..... when do they have to announce a change in substantial holdings? Prior or after the purchase?


----------



## ColB

Well it has been mentioned on this forum that LNC would list on the ASX200 at the close of trade 19/09/2008.  I asked more experienced investors/traders at message 355 what effect it may have on LNC SP.

My question has been answered by the result of trading after the bell when an additional 5 million shares went through when only 1.2 million had been traded up until 4pm.

Can't help but think with the articles you will see in the weekend papers that it should set LNC up for spirited buying on Monday and would not be surprised to see it close around $5.30 to $5.50 as others scramble to get on prior to final commissioning (diesel out of the LINC Bowser) which according to LNC should be late next week or thereabouts.

The successful commissioning of the Pilot GTL plant and subsequent announcement is the defining moment for LNC and should see the SP move at least a dollar based on previous good announcements.

With the merger of Sapex and MOU's with Vietnam, China, India and US interest this is potentially a major world player in the energy market.

I hold LNC, CNX, PES and many others that are significantly buggered.


----------



## Calliope

You may have seen this CNX report if you have an interest in that stock. It is relevant to LNC too, although a couple of weeks old. It helps to dispel some of the myths which were spread by some newspaper reports some weeks ago, mainly driven by the unimformed, about UCG.

www.carbonenergy.com.au/documents/ASX170908_1.pdf


----------



## bluekat

When you consider the inclusion into the S and P 200.
Maybe LNC got there timing right, in relation to commissioning of the pilot plant.
After the inclusion will considerably add to the momentum of the  SP, rather than before the inclusion.


----------



## mitch1

Hi There,
My name is Mitch from Europe.
I am a LINC Investor for a long time, 
I Believe in the company and in Specially in the Management. I think Linc  and all shareholders will have a exiting future.I personaly think they can make the Liquid all ready for a long time. I think they are waiting for the right time to make the accouncement.
First the 1.5 Billion, Then ASX 200 to get more exposure and Volume So now they can make the announcement!!!!!! I AM READY!!!!!
I am interested in small future New Linc companys, which are still small but big potential. I like to make a other ride from $0.25 to $5.00
I am sure when Linc will make the announcement there are other small stocks which will have a  biggger Gain then Linc will do. Maybe like CNX.
Who can give me the golden TIP ??


----------



## Eric

Hi Mitch,

I think LNC has a good future. I am holding it and expect it to move up nicely. I think it is on it's 52 week high.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com


----------



## Calliope

mitch1 said:


> Hi There,
> My name is Mitch from Europe.
> I am a LINC Investor for a long time,
> I Believe in the company and in Specially in the Management. I think Linc  and all shareholders will have a exiting future.
> Who can give me the golden TIP ??




I think you mean *exciting future*, exiting is a word LNC supporters do not use. 

But on the serious side, forum posters will not give you tips. However there is plenty of good advice on the stock threads, study them, you will soon separate the serious investors from the fly-by-nights, do your research and above all make sure the management is trustworthy. I also think LNC management is first class.

And the best of luck.


----------



## eric35

Well Mitch did say he is from Europe.

However, I agree that LNC has good management in place. I especially, being a 90% TA follower, like the daily chart.


----------



## springhill

mitch1 said:


> Hi There,
> My name is Mitch from Europe.
> I am a LINC Investor for a long time,
> I Believe in the company and in Specially in the Management. I think Linc  and all shareholders will have a exiting future.I personaly think they can make the Liquid all ready for a long time. I think they are waiting for the right time to make the accouncement.
> First the 1.5 Billion, Then ASX 200 to get more exposure and Volume So now they can make the announcement!!!!!! I AM READY!!!!!
> I am interested in small future New Linc companys, which are still small but big potential. I like to make a other ride from $0.25 to $5.00
> I am sure when Linc will make the announcement there are other small stocks which will have a  biggger Gain then Linc will do. Maybe like CNX.
> Who can give me the golden TIP ??




THESE ARE NOT TIPS but im very interested in the UGC sector, some others you may want to look at are CNX, CXY and GLX. I disclose holdings in all 3, so take them with a grain of salt, and as such they are the ones i am aware of, there may be others. This is merely a pointer in the direction of DOING YOUR OWN RESEARCH. Hope this helps. Good Luck


----------



## Rastan

Guys,

It is mentioned that Linc has been included in the S&P - how should I have found that out? there is no asx announcement on ASX or on the LNC website? I have been feeling that I just haven't been getting a good handle on getting info (I have sold most of my LNC previously and if I knew this info I would have bought on both 4.60->4.90 runs).

While on the topic, when the QLD Gov finally pull there finger out about announcing the UCG Vs CSM issue - where will it be released?

Cheers


----------



## awg

The S&P site includes the info you want.

Here is the link

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...s_asx200/2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,4,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

If u follow a particular company, you can check its progress in the newspaper, they variously publish its ranking on a dailyor weekly basis.


----------



## basilio

IMO there is much to like about Linc Energy.

1) It is developing a quantum leap in a critical  resource transformation technology. Turning low grade, isolated coal deposits into clean diesel cheaply is close to turning lead into gold.

2) In the current reality of rapidly depleting oil supplies the value of this  process will become even bigger in the near future.

3)*The CEO Peter Bond is an absolute livewire*. His drive, creativity and public marketing skills are a significant point of difference to other similar companies. For instance CNX is on a similar path to LINC but has a considerably lower market value. I believe Peter is the  difference

4)* LINC seems to have created the funds to develop first plant by selling the Teresa coal field.* Lets not kid ourselves. Finding a resource is one thing; getting the cash to develop it is a completely new ball game. In a financial world as fragile as we are currently seeing cash will be king.

5) I believe they either have the engineering talent to make their project work or Peters drive and publicity flair will attract the right staff. Again in a world that is going to be furiously chasing every mining engineer with a pulse and every piece of  industrial infrastructure this will be critical.

6) LINC seems to have an environmental focus - in particular the reduction of CO2 emissions.   The issue of somehow avoiding  runaway climate change is absolutely critical. In fact if we don't achieve this goal LINCs "success" will simply turn into ashes.  According to the website LINC is developing a carbon capture technology which may be a holy grail.  IMO (again)  developing and selling such a technology on simply a cost plus  basis would be an inspired and inspiring move. We can't spend our profits on a dead planet. 

To make all this happen in a big way I believe LINC should find a way to become project of national perhaps international significance. This could just mean being recognised as * really* important and obtaining the sort of political support that gets approvals done quickly and support for genuinely valuable technology. On the contra side LINC could then make a move to develop and promote its coal capture technology ASAP and *ensure its widespread use without regard to profit maximisation.* In an industrial world that is still so short sighted it won't recognise the clear and present dangers of Global Warming it would be a most powerful voice.

So what remains? We still haven't quite got liftoff with the pilot plant...I always like to see the final proof.  And of course proposing a 20,000 barrel a day coal to diesel plant and  actually bringing it on line are quite different events. Which is why I suggest being seen as a national leader in this field would be an astute move.

Any thoughts?

Basilio


----------



## Calliope

Rastan said:


> Guys,It is mentioned that Linc has been included in the S&P - how should I have found that out?




For starters you should follow this thread. I mentioned it in my post No 339 that Linc would be joining the S&P ASX200 at close of trade 19 Sept.

I got this information from  the Linc website. I refer you to you to Media Release 5 Sept. Linc also notified shareholders by Email.


----------



## awg

basilio said:


> IMO there is much to like about Linc Energy.
> 
> 
> 
> To make all this happen in a big way I believe LINC should find a way to become project of national perhaps international significance. This could just mean being recognised as * really* important and obtaining the sort of political support that gets approvals done quickly and support for genuinely valuable technology. On the contra side LINC could then make a move to develop and promote its coal capture technology ASAP and *ensure its widespread use without regard to profit maximisation.* In an industrial world that is still so short sighted it won't recognise the clear and present dangers of Global Warming it would be a most powerful voice.
> 
> So what remains? We still haven't quite got liftoff with the pilot plant...I always like to see the final proof.  And of course proposing a 20,000 barrel a day coal to diesel plant and  actually bringing it on line are quite different events. Which is why I suggest being seen as a national leader in this field would be an astute move.
> 
> Any thoughts?
> 
> Basilio




A question I have been wondering.

If Linc is to go mega, then they would be hoping to get big bucks out of deals in China, India and Vietnam, as there is massive stranded coal in each of these countries.

How likely is it that these companies will basically "steal" the technology and process to some extent, and keep the profits at home?

I think it is probable they will try.

Cheap & nasty copies anyone?

Having said that, I am stil a true believer, and topped up again this morning.

As to the CO2 conversion, I am wary, has the ring of a great salesman to me.

I agree it would be a holy grail, and if it is to be practical, I want it to be Linc.


----------



## LittleMak

basilio said:


> 3)*The CEO Peter Bond is an absolute livewire*. His drive, creativity and public marketing skills are a significant point of difference to other similar companies. For instance CNX is on a similar path to LINC but has a considerably lower market value. I believe Peter is the  difference
> 
> Basilio





The reason CNX have a lower market cap has nothing to do with management, PB or PR. Its because CNX currently have a lower resource base than LNC. So when valuing any company on current prospects etc this has to be taken into account and the Market Cap based accordingly.

CNX are also forging their own unique market and seem to be focusing more on Fertilizers, Plastics and Energy, where as Linc are focusing on Diesel and Jet Fuels.

Both Companies seem to be doing well so far and have massive futures. Their time has come!


----------



## basilio

LittleMak said:


> The reason CNX have a lower market cap has nothing to do with management, PB or PR. Its because CNX currently have a lower resource base than LNC. So when valuing any company on current prospects etc this has to be taken into account and the Market Cap based accordingly.
> 
> CNX are also forging their own unique market and seem to be focusing more on Fertilizers, Plastics and Energy, where as Linc are focusing on Diesel and Jet Fuels.
> 
> Both Companies seem to be doing well so far and have massive futures. Their time has come!




Point partially taken LittleMak. I was referring to the fact that both companies are transforming low value stranded coal into high value products. CNX  direction towards fertiliser/plastics and energy will also be very profitable.

CNX does have a lower resource base which IMO partially accounts for the lower market value. But I suggest that Peter Bond has been highly effective at promoting LINC as the new El Dorado and convincing many more investors to get on board. That is where the extra value  has come.

But IMO on the basics CNX probably offers better value at the moment.

Cheers


(I have interests in CNC and LINC)


----------



## bluekat

Also maybe

Linc is Bond,s dream, I think he owns 62%.( correct me if i'm wrong )

Major shareholder in CNX is Incitex Pivot, hence their direction, Pivot keep a low profile at best, CNX tends to mirror that profile.


----------



## avaramo

This article may explain why LNC gets a little spike today.  Pay particular attention to the comment which has now been repeated twice:

"Bond also flagged the potential sale of another coking sale asset."


http://www.businessspectator.com.au...t-diesel-plant-within-days-JS8W5?OpenDocument


----------



## bluekat

Great article, the news just keeps on coming.
With the demonstration plant, the results will have to be validated, so that could take a few days. Exciting times ahead.


----------



## bluekat

I guess with the sale of another coal asset, that will provide the cash required for the joint deal in China and provide enough cash for Vietnam, India and the USA. Again a great article.


----------



## Calliope

As somebody who likes to keep all bases covered, I should imagine that Peter Bond is doing as much as possible to insulate Linc from any anti-resources decisions likely to be made by the Queensland government; 

For those who do not follow Qld  politics the following quote from City Beat in todays Courier-mail may be of interest;



> With Labor's prime vote slumping over the past year it is clear that Anna 'Pinocchio' Bligh will need green preferences to win the next election.
> 
> This is not the news that fills the resources sector with confidence.
> 
> Already there is discontent with decisions on royalties, oil shale and Waratah Coal.
> 
> With green preferences so vital the resources sector can expect a raft of decisions that will pander to the Green and the environment sector.
> 
> The real concern is that the business sector seems to have few advocates in Cabinet. The Mines and Energy minister Geoff Wilson is considered a one-person sovereign risk by the resources sector.


----------



## joestjack

nice share spike towards the end of the day. where'd that come from?

wonder if some good news has started to trickle out on the pilot plant?

...hope so.


----------



## grace

joestjack said:


> nice share spike towards the end of the day. where'd that come from?
> 
> wonder if some good news has started to trickle out on the pilot plant?
> 
> ...hope so.




I was out at Linc earlier this week.  All quiet on the home front there.  I'm actually wondering whether it has all been proven, just waiting for the exact time to announce.

The locals tell me that a very big party tent has been hired by Linc....but that's a secret per the locals.....of course I told them I would keep it just to myself....

As always, noone should rely on this to make an investment decision!  This information could be, and probably is, totally wrong....


----------



## joestjack

grace said:


> I was out at Linc earlier this week.  All quiet on the home front there.  I'm actually wondering whether it has all been proven, just waiting for the exact time to announce.
> 
> The locals tell me that a very big party tent has been hired by Linc....but that's a secret per the locals.....of course I told them I would keep it just to myself....
> 
> As always, noone should rely on this to make an investment decision!  This information could be, and probably is, totally wrong....




a big party tent eh?

I think you're right - they're just waiting for the best time to announce it. PB's probably been filling up his Landcruiser at the Linc bowser for weeks.

Are you directly associated with Linc, Grace? You seem to have your finger on the pulse?


----------



## Santoro

> As at 30 June officially, we were still finalising the last of the details of the relevant piping and commissioning of various items on
> the Gas to Liquids (GTL) demonstration plant. But now just a few weeks later and at the time of my writing, we are on the verge
> of successfully commissioning the GTL plant and *just days* from producing liquids. I can tell you it will be a very proud day for all
> of us when I pump the first litre of diesel from the Linc Energy bowser!




From the annual report released 12 September.....its been two weeks since this was released, surely the announcement is due out any hour now....


----------



## Santoro

Linc Energy to start diesel plant within days.....Published 4:03 PM, 24 Sep 2008

Business Spectator



> "We just need two to three days to work on a couple of focus points and then we will be producing liquids," Mr Bond said a telephone interview from Brisbane.


----------



## 0239666

Whats the story with the merger with SASPEX?

http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/57410/SAPEX_Limited_ASX:SXP_Shareholders_Vote_

Will this cause the SP to drop. I might sell at this high and buy back when it comes down.


----------



## Calliope

0239666 said:


> Whats the story with the merger with SASPEX?
> 
> http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/57410/SAPEX_Limited_ASX:SXP_Shareholders_Vote_
> 
> Will this cause the SP to drop. I might sell at this high and buy back when it comes down.




Instead of asking silly questions why don't you do some research?  That's what serious investors do.


----------



## Mickel

grace said:


> Just looking back at some valuations here from BBY.
> 
> DCF at $65/barrel is $5.50.  HOWEVER, this is with 70% debt, 30% equity through capital raising.  WE DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT NOW.
> 
> So, we can assume some new valuations with some substancially higher price targets over the next 12 months.  For a start, we will have $3.75 PER SHARE IN CASH!  (ie $1.5bill/400 mill shares).
> 
> Can we just add $3.75 to $5.50 (base case at $65/barrel)
> New target $9.25  (based on new tangible assets).
> 
> 
> AND, if we use oil at US$100/barrel
> DCF $9.03 + $3.75 cash per share
> $12.78 share
> 
> Just throwing a few figures around.  Can expect new broker targets out fairly soon I would think.
> 
> Plenty of growth in this one yet using my calculations!




Hi Grace

Updating some calculations from BBY's latest report of 8 Sept. They have used an exchange of .80 USD and an oil price of USD 75. With no debt/Equity funding required this translates to an EBITDA of AUD629 million . With tax at 30% it would equate to a net profit of $440 million or EPS of $1.10 .

The report also states the proposed sale of the Teresa coal tenements would attract a tax of $300 million (explanation given) leaving a net $1.2billion or $3 per share. BBY's DCF valuation is $7.43/sh using 13%.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-17.pdf

Given that the diesel is about to flow a DCF of 10% would seem appropiate as there will be much less risk for the company.

Grace, would you be kind enough to do a valuation with the above figures except oil at both USD 90 and 100. Perhaps you could also explain the calculations.

Of course the above doesn't take into account the sale of the other coking coal deposit that PB mentioned in an interview on Wed 24 Sept and referred to in previous posts on this thread. That could be anything but would probably attract the full company rate of tax (30%) as Linc would have used up all their deductions on the first sale.

IMHO I think the share price will be $10 by Christmas.

Correcting a previous post - from Linc Energy 08 Annual Report PB controls 54.54% of the company through Newtron Pty Ltd not 60+ % as stated.

Disclosure- I hold a sizable parcel of LNC


----------



## bluekat

Interesting target price by Christmas Mickel !.
My thoughts. There is so much more news to come.
The commissioning is a done deal. 

However what interests me most is the mention of another asset sale.
My take on that, is the news could get much bigger than a commercial plant of 20,000bpd. Maybe Linc in three years time could be involved in a few  partnerships that nets the company, 70,000 bpd worth of profits. 
Share price ?.


----------



## Mickel

bluekat said:


> Interesting target price by Christmas Mickel !.
> My thoughts. There is so much more news to come.
> The commissioning is a done deal.
> 
> However what interests me most is the mention of another asset sale.
> My take on that, is the news could get much bigger than a commercial plant of 20,000bpd. Maybe Linc in three years time could be involved in a few  partnerships that nets the company, 70,000 bpd worth of profits.
> Share price ?.





Hi bluekat
I see from an earlier post you sold out on 5 Sept at $4.25. Did you manage to get back in under $4 ?

I also think the commissioning is a done deal that's why I suggested a DCF valuation at 10% rather than 13% is more appropriate.

I think that in 3 years time Linc will have plants, at least in the construction stage, capable of producing a minimum of 70,000 bpd regardless of the size of this 2nd asset sale. Prime sites would be Sth Aust, China and US. China and possibly US would be joint ventures so only half of those profits.

I see significant re-rating of the share price (apart from next week, hopefully)
when-
1. Sale price of this 2nd asset sale is announced (before Christmas ?)
2. Approval to build 1st commercial plant is given
3. Oil starts flowing from the commercial plant

All of these 3 are planned to occur within your 3 year time frame, and, as I said, I think other plants will be in construction phase at least. PB doesn't muck around and the world will still be clamoring for reliable sources of oil.

Share price ? Who knows ! There are many variables, but I would think $20 could be a conservative base.


----------



## LittleMak

bluekat said:


> Also maybe
> 
> Linc is Bond,s dream, I think he owns 62%.( correct me if i'm wrong )
> 
> Major shareholder in CNX is Incitex Pivot, hence their direction, Pivot keep a low profile at best, CNX tends to mirror that profile.





Without trying to get into a Jousting match:

Major Shareholder in CNX is the CSIRO. 

There's no doubt that PB (like the old Alan Bond) is an entrepuneur and attracts some great investors. As long as its not all a sales pitch and this company and investors end up like Firepower?

Goodluck to the UCG.

LM


----------



## bluekat

Mickel, yes I was lucky enough to get back in below $4, I have been lucky with Linc, buying in on the lows and selling on the highs over the last four months, but I think after next week those days are gone. 

Linc is now 100% of my portfolio, stupid I know, but then again maybe not.
Time will tell!.

I agree with all those probable sites, plus India and Vietnam. I think China could be producing before Australia, they will fast track construction, not sure, but likely.


----------



## basilio

Little Mak I think your comparisons with Firepower are  (way) off the mark.

Yes Peter Bond is entrepreneurial and I believe his capacity to inspire and bring in investors is one of the elements that has raised LINCs profile and share price more than more conservative companies. 

But the essential difference is that the coal to oil product is real and comes at a time when traditional oil supplies are in terminal decline and everyone will looking for new oil.  The idea is a game breaker - what remains is making it all work.

Firepowers magic petrol pills were just pure marketing BS. If you look at the 4 Corners expose on the company you quickly get an idea of how the only reality in the scheme was separating people from their money.

I also think that attempting to compare Peter Bond to Alan Bond because they share a surname is...... not that useful.

Yes I do have an interest in LINC et al.


----------



## The Dealer

bluekat said:


> Mickel, yes I was lucky enough to get back in below $4, I have been lucky with Linc, buying in on the lows and selling on the highs over the last four months, but I think after next week those days are gone.
> 
> Linc is now 100% of my portfolio, stupid I know, but then again maybe not.
> Time will tell!.
> 
> I agree with all those probable sites, plus India and Vietnam. I think China could be producing before Australia, they will fast track construction, not sure, but likely.




Bluekat I think your on to something.
Vietnam is also very keen like China is about the future. Why else would you bother adding a few million tonnes of coal to your 35 billion tonne stockpile. They want the liquids technology! You can put it in cars! 
Someone said that LNC is 100% of their portfolio. Pretty smart I reckon. Would rather hold physcal assets than paper right now.
Breaking news - Just bought some of the new warrants LNCWMC through Macquarie bank at $2.11. Will wait till Monday before launching in, but wanted to be the first to buy them.  
If there is another asset sale, maybe we would see some sort of special dividend?? Keep us keen.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Little Mak I think your comparisons with Firepower are  (way) off the mark.
> 
> Yes Peter Bond is entrepreneurial and I believe his capacity to inspire and bring in investors is one of the elements that has raised LINCs profile and share price more than more conservative companies.
> 
> But the essential difference is that the coal to oil product is real and comes at a time when traditional oil supplies are in terminal decline and everyone will looking for new oil.  The idea is a game breaker - what remains is making it all work.
> 
> Firepowers magic petrol pills were just pure marketing BS. If you look at the 4 Corners expose on the company you quickly get an idea of how the only reality in the scheme was separating people from their money.
> 
> I also think that attempting to compare Peter Bond to Alan Bond because they share a surname is...... not that useful.
> 
> Yes I do have an interest in LINC et al.




Spot on, basilio, on all counts. 

If anything, having a surname of Bond has been a handicap for PB because it is natural to assume a connection between PB and Alan Bond.

Peter Bond *is* entrepreneurial because he saw a company (LINC) that had potential and had the vision, capital and driving force to combine 2 proven technologies into a *very sound business plan (producing diesel for USD28 pb in a demand market)*. On top of that, he has a number of environmental advantages with the processes and further initiatives under way.

The other Bond was essentially a salesman *with some unsound business plans.*


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> Bluekat I think your on to something.
> Vietnam is also very keen like China is about the future. Why else would you bother adding a few million tonnes of coal to your 35 billion tonne stockpile. They want the liquids technology! You can put it in cars!
> Someone said that LNC is 100% of their portfolio. Pretty smart I reckon. Would rather hold physcal assets than paper right now.
> Breaking news - Just bought some of the new warrants LNCWMC through Macquarie bank at $2.11. Will wait till Monday before launching in, but wanted to be the first to buy them.
> If there is another asset sale, maybe we would see some sort of special dividend?? Keep us keen.




Hi Dealer

The MOU's with Vietnam so far- ASX announcements 5/12/07 and 28/3/08- which are accessible on the Link website, refer only to Syn gas from LINC's UCG process supplying feed for a power station. This is expected to be the first joint venture project.

I wouldn't expect this project to be as profitable as producing diesel (not as capital expensive either) but that is certainly possible down the track.

What right (or warrant) do you get for your $2.11 LNCWMC ?


----------



## grace

joestjack said:


> a big party tent eh?
> 
> I think you're right - they're just waiting for the best time to announce it. PB's probably been filling up his Landcruiser at the Linc bowser for weeks.
> 
> Are you directly associated with Linc, Grace? You seem to have your finger on the pulse?





NO, no Link with Linc.  If I did, I certainly wouldn't be posting on this site!  Just an investor like everyone else.  Know quite a lot of investors who show up at the site from time to time, and receive feedback too.  I guess we all like to get that bit of inside knowledge, but Linc don't have too many leaks IMO.  My Linc investment has been kind to me.


----------



## Mickel

Regarding Peter Bond's Linc shareholding through his company, Newtron P/L-

From the 06/07 Annual Report -  

 No. of Shares            201,557,383      

 % of Company             62.74%


From the 07/08  Annual Report      

 No of shares             201,557,383                        

% of Company              54.54%

So, as at 30/6/08 PB hadn't sold any shares but because of the issue of new shares to Contractors, land owners, staff and Institutions (@$3.70) his controlling percentage of the Company has reduced to 54.54%.This is still sufficient to guide the company to its medium to long term goals without worrying about possible takeovers. 

Apart from staff options, there would appear to be very little need to issue more shares, given the $1.5 Billion sale and another expected sale.

This is very rare in a relatively new company with huge expansion plans and can only be positive for the share price, particularly when the good news regarding the company hits the front page.

Disclosure- I hold LNC


----------



## The Dealer

Mickel said:


> Hi Dealer
> 
> The MOU's with Vietnam so far- ASX announcements 5/12/07 and 28/3/08- which are accessible on the Link website, refer only to Syn gas from LINC's UCG process supplying feed for a power station. This is expected to be the first joint venture project.
> 
> I wouldn't expect this project to be as profitable as producing diesel (not as capital expensive either) but that is certainly possible down the track.
> 
> What right (or warrant) do you get for your $2.11 LNCWMC ?




Mikel,
It's a call warrant that expire in ???02/09. I'm betting the price will rise between now then. Essentially, every 4c movement up in LNC share price there is a 3c move in the price of the warrant. SP was $5.21 warrant 2.11. So for 10k i could buy 1800 normal shares or 5000 warrants. So say the sp gets to 9.45 and I sell up, the 10k warrant is 25k approx (15K up). If the 1800shares ($10000) goes up $4.24 times, and you sell the 1800 that's a profit of$7632. It just a way to leverage in.
Please don't take this as advice as it also works the other way if the sp goes down and you could have nothing. Look into yourself. There are 3 different ones. If you go to the asx website, bring up LNC and then click on LNC, then click warrants they are there.


----------



## agro

i am going to buy more of these tomorrow 

i reckon its the FMG of coal seam -doesn't anyone else?

look at the graph!


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> Mikel,
> It's a call warrant that expire in ???02/09. I'm betting the price will rise between now then. Essentially, every 4c movement up in LNC share price there is a 3c move in the price of the warrant. SP was $5.21 warrant 2.11. So for 10k i could buy 1800 normal shares or 5000 warrants. So say the sp gets to 9.45 and I sell up, the 10k warrant is 25k approx (15K up). If the 1800shares ($10000) goes up $4.24 times, and you sell the 1800 that's a profit of$7632. It just a way to leverage in.
> Please don't take this as advice as it also works the other way if the sp goes down and you could have nothing. Look into yourself. There are 3 different ones. If you go to the asx website, bring up LNC and then click on LNC, then click warrants they are there.




Thanks for the explanations, Dealer. I understand the risks and will stick to the shares. Good Luck with your punt.

I understand that you can close out your warrant before the expiry date (26/2/09) if you are happy with a certain profit- like if the SP hit $10 before Christmas. That way you could eliminate your risk of a SP downturn in mid Feb 09.

Is this correct ?


----------



## grace

agro said:


> i am going to buy more of these tomorrow
> 
> i reckon its the FMG of coal seam -doesn't anyone else?
> 
> look at the graph!




Agro, the thought had crossed my mind many times......just wasn't quite game enough to post it up.  Only time will tell of course.  The key to linc is having the funding issue passed.  These markets are/will crucify those who are short on cash.  Hopefully, that will see Linc rise above the rest.

Chart does look very bullish.


----------



## Ruincity

Santoro said:


> From the annual report released 12 September.....its been two weeks since this was released, surely the announcement is due out any hour now....






Santoro said:


> Linc Energy to start diesel plant within days.....Published 4:03 PM, 24 Sep 2008
> 
> Business Spectator




Well it's been a fair `few days' since this news was knowledge. 
And probably a day or two before it became known.  
Still no release to the market??

I notice Linc reached an all time high of $5.37 this morning not long after opening..
Managed to finish the day down though at $5.14..


----------



## Santoro

Ruincity said:


> Well it's been a fair `few days' since this news was knowledge.
> And probably a day or two before it became known.
> Still no release to the market??
> 
> I notice Linc reached an all time high of $5.37 this morning not long after opening..
> Managed to finish the day down though at $5.14..




Yeah....didn't the sp bob up and down seems to be holding above $5 but now that I've posted this I expect you will be able to pick it up in the high 4's tomorrow. 
Can't be long...probabaly priced into the sp in any case....


----------



## Calliope

It's the same old pattern, gains in the morning and lose it all and more in the afternoon. Its similar with CNX although it was up on the day. It is getting difficult to predict what sort of good news it will take to shake off the day traders who are causing the volatility. On the other hand it wouldn't take much bad news (or lack of news) to have them heading for the exits again.

Some of you may remember that the demonstration plant was commissioned with much fanfare on 28 Feb. It has now had seven months of fine tuning. A little transparency here wouldn't go amiss.


----------



## newanimal

scooped out a bunch of stop losses under most recent support (4.40) no doubt. Included mine @ 3.38.  Im sure lnc will recover. Now...how  to get back in...hmmm


----------



## Pigsy

LNC today is the 3rd worst performing stock for companies over $2m in volume.   Only 2 companies worse are FMG and Babcock and they have been basket cases on the ASX of late. Not looking good at all.
No news is bad news. Is there a problem with the plant?


----------



## joestjack

I think it's just the market today. Absolutely every stock on my CommSec watchlist is massively deep in red.

It'll bounce back.

Had a great article on the sub-prime crisis sent to me this morning. My understanding of American politics is small, but found this very, very interesting.

Have a read...

http://www.makepeacetotalpackage.com/clayton-makepeace/a-conspiracy-of-imbeciles.html


----------



## Calliope

Pigsy said:


> LNC today is the 3rd worst performing stock for companies over $2m in volume.   Only 2 companies worse are FMG and Babcock and they have been basket cases on the ASX of late. Not looking good at all.
> No news is bad news. Is there a problem with the plant?




Linc would be crazy to release any good news at the present time. It would be wasted. Don't lose the faith. At the moment the price is 4.49. A month ago when it was 3.30, we would have thought 4.40 pretty good. We always knew this stock was volatile and we came in with our eyes open. As I have said before, leave the exodus to the lemmings. We don't need them.


----------



## bluekat

I agree Calliope, better to leave it for a better day.
The SP has recovered was down 13% , as I write 6.51%.
Anyone got an idea how the US market will perform tonight?. The Dow futures did not look good this morning.


----------



## grace

Nice to see Linc showing some strength this afternoon.  Only 2 more hours of trading, and I might win my first ever stock comp!


----------



## bluekat

You win Grace, by a country mile, did you choose Linc for next months competition?.
Looks good for tomorrow Linc holders.


----------



## Ruincity

Only an L plater and I got smashed this morning.
I had a stop on link that the opening went well below and sold me at open for 4.17..  Cost me around $800 bucks. 

Big lessons learnt for me today.. 

How is best to avoid something like this in the future?
I thought I was doing the right thing to have a stop?

I am actually more spewing at the fact that I didn't put all my money back into it at the depths of darknes....


----------



## awg

Linc is an example of a stock that makes money management and Stop Loss a vexed issue.

it is now an ASX top 100 stock by market cap, but very volatile.

I traded this stock many times profitably between $2 and $4.

I finally got trailing stop lossed out at $3.14, after a previous shocker of a day on the market.

After doing more research on this company I realized I would need to have a much wider stop if I wanted to stay in.

Do you believe this technology is likely to be a future money maker?

All the research on this thread and other links indicates it is very likely.

So i bought back in at $3.70, and topped up several times since, didnt feel too good at $2.74, but stayed the course..even a Stop of 20% would have exited me

Having said this, it is ESSENTIAL you  DYOR, bear in mind their income stream is a fair way off yet, and if the eagerly expected announcement in the next few days is even slightly negative, the SP may get smashed.

If it is good, SP should climb


----------



## korrupt_1

Ruincity said:


> Only an L plater and I got smashed this morning.
> I had a stop on link that the opening went well below and sold me at open for 4.17..  Cost me around $800 bucks.
> 
> Big lessons learnt for me today..
> 
> How is best to avoid something like this in the future?
> I thought I was doing the right thing to have a stop?
> 
> I am actually more spewing at the fact that I didn't put all my money back into it at the depths of darknes....




With volatile stocks like this one.... i'd place SL just below support levels. If the SL is too far away, you need to adjust your position size to a smaller one to ensure that you're not going to get burnt.

If it does rally higher from your entry level,.. well you're not going to make a heap of money - cos you missed out on the optimum entry - but still catching the late train is better than missing out on the ride altogether...


----------



## newanimal

I'm with you ruincity. Guess I got lucky with my sl fill @ 4.38 (to correct my typo error above). After watching the DJ crash, I moved my stop up from 3.49 to a few points under the next support level hoping it would hold. In hind sight it looks to me like a shake out/stop loss harvest by the pro's. Trying to remain emotionally detached and learn from it. Will be watching the next day or so, I'd like to get back in if it looks right.


----------



## bluekat

Well done Grace, only 4 out of 68 made money in September 08, a very difficult month for investors and tipsters, lets hope October turns it around.


----------



## Santoro

Santoro said:


> Linc Energy to start diesel plant within days.....Published 4:03 PM, 24 Sep 2008
> 
> Business Spectator




After these media announcements maybe it doesn't work hence no news released....who knows...hence the downward sp...unlike CNX which has stayed somewhat steady??


----------



## Rastan

*Man it is tanking today...*

I know its a volitile stock but down 15%...! I am getting killed out there... I hope this experience is of some benefit to me later and doesnt just leave me a scarred wreck...


----------



## 0239666

Is the 17% drop because of the purchase of SAPEX shares? I nearly called my stockbroker to sell at 5.25 so I could buy back later. Too bad I didn't. I'm back where I started now. But I'm learning.


----------



## Mickel

Currently 3.97 down 15% and was down to 3.80 earlier today.
Is it only that good news was expected by now and we have no news or is it something more? I think the former.


----------



## joestjack

Just rang Linc, girl said she can't give any update on the progress of the plant. Still in final commissioning.


----------



## Glen48

Looks like its Meal on Wheels AGAIN to night.
Keep us posted there has to be some good news in here. With the USSA elections coming up wonder what will happen to the World while they decide who to elect.


----------



## Goldmann

joestjack said:


> Just rang Linc, girl said she can't give any update on the progress of the plant. Still in final commissioning.





you were about 5 mins too early hahahaha...  everything on track at the plant... delay due to fault PLC cards (computer logic operating system).  Liquids by the weekend... god bless bondy.

anyone sell out today - i expect a big ramp up this week before the liquids come streaming out... 

China deal delayed due to Chinese national holidays - extended by the month but approved by both companies boards...

initial JORC at next tenement... setting it up to sell Q1 2009...

looks like they were worried about the SP fall and in true peter bond style he is quick to reassure his faithful investors... 

fingers crossed for no more delays from here... no liquids by monday may see the SP slide considerably now this guarantee has been given...


----------



## basilio

Hi  Goldmann,
That is a lot of information. Potentially very valuable. What is the quality of your source ?

Cheers


----------



## Calliope

Today was the day when the true believers were separated from the faint hearted. The losses will be recovered and more so. I said last week that I didn't think they would make the announcement while the market was in such a mess, but Peter Bond knows what he is doing, and what is best for the long term holders. 

Basilio. Announcement to ASX   And Linc email to stockholders


----------



## joestjack

Calliope said:


> Today was the day when the true believers were separated from the faint hearted. The losses will be recovered and more so. I said last week that I didn't think they would make the announcement while the market was in such a mess, but Peter Bond knows what he is doing, and what is best for the long term holders.
> 
> Basilio. Announcement to ASX   And Linc email to stockholders




Yeah you've hit the nail on the head.

I bought in at $4.36 so was a bit shocked to see it fall underneath me after sitting above $5. Holding tight though...


----------



## 0239666

Why did everyone sell all of a sudden? If people were getting worried over the delays, wouldn't that be more of a gradual decrease in SP? Maybe a some stop losses kicked in too. I hope the liquids come. This company has great potential.


----------



## korrupt_1

now that LNC is part of the XJO.... it's going to experience more volatility in these conditions...

look at the other blue chips... they are fundamentally doing ok.. but are getting a hammering...

just cos LNC has potential, doesn't mean it will be immune the current market environemnts...

just hold onto your hats... remember, if you're in it for the long term... this is just a blip


----------



## Goldmann

korrupt_1 said:


> now that LNC is part of the XJO.... it's going to experience more volatility in these conditions...
> 
> look at the other blue chips... they are fundamentally doing ok.. but are getting a hammering...
> 
> just cos LNC has potential, doesn't mean it will be immune the current market environemnts...
> 
> just hold onto your hats... remember, if you're in it for the long term... this is just a blip




this is a big blip.... SUPER BLIP.... MEGA BLIP...  but i do tend to agree... if you said 6 months ago that BHP would be under $29 - i would of offered you some prescription medicine


----------



## Pigsy

Yesterday, of all companies on the ASX with a $2Million turnover LNC had the largest % drop (18.2%). You'd expect that with a basket case company like Babcock and Brown, but why LNC?
Caused so much concern that LNC had to make a company announcement today saying that all is on track. Even reinforcing the fact of the $1.5 Billion coal sale didn't do it any good with another 8+% drop on opening.
So much for the short selling ban, cause it sure looked like it was getting shorted.
Not sure why it's getting a hammering? So far the SP hasn't recovered. You'd think with the current discount price  there'd be a quick recovery.  I just can't work out this market, logic has certainly gone out the window.
Dare I say it that there could be some market manipulation going on before the liquid announcement. Or has all the good news already been factored into the current stock price?


----------



## namrog

Don't forget that Lincs share price is directly affected by the price of oil, and so no surprise to see the pullback lately, POI down by 6.5 % overnight.
Energy stocks overall took a hammering, especially uranium hopefulls and producers.
If we are in a prolonged global recession , few years or however long it lasts, might actually be in lincs favour, as the cost of building the main plant could be significantly reduced, re labour and material costs, and am assuming this building will take several years , (don't really know just guessing), but by then who knows what the price of oil will be.
Does anyone seriously see oil staying low for more than the short term ???

I believe liquids will be produced soon, and an announcement will be made when the time is right, PB is no fool, and am sure realises that timing of this announcement is crucial, as far as keeping the SP momentum going.
In this environment , even the slightest hint that there might be a problem with the demo plant, and the shareprice would suffer badly, but we have not seen that yet, mainly general market related movements. 

Stand back and look at the big picture, look into the future , look a few years ahead, the credit crisis will pass, the world ecomomy will stabilise and start to grow again, and energy prices will start to rise, and who knows what shocks are in store between now and then, that might sent oil and LNC a lot higher ??

Wish I had some spare , to get more at this level.
My oppinion only, so dyodd.
Re Joe.


----------



## Pigsy

Good points namrog. But there are a lot more oil and energy companies out there bigger and smaller than LNC but they didn't get hammered 18%. Why did LNC get singled out? Same thing happened on Sept. 30 LNC got hammered more than anyone else gapping down overnight. And today you've got energy companies like AGL Energy and Origin making gains of 3%. Just makes me think there's more going on than meets the eye.


----------



## mexican

Remember LNC have not yet made diesel. I think you will see the ship being a bit more steady once the plant produces. Until then,  it will be volatile!


----------



## 0239666

If the pilot plant cant produce by the end of the week the SP will drop even more. Will the sale of the coal have an effect on SP directly. ie. wll it raise SP or has it already raised the SP. What I'm trying to find out is, at what point do the profits from the sale increase SP?


----------



## Glen48

Has LNC bottomed seem to be  bobbing around at 3.6- 3.70 buy in now or sit back for more direction or just toss a coin and hope?


----------



## agro

Glen48 said:


> Has LNC bottomed seem to be  bobbing around at 3.6- 3.70 buy in now or sit back for more direction or just toss a coin and hope?




good read in today's AFR about Linc

they have the funding and all clear

when things pick up we will see it rally again back to its olden days


----------



## Glen48

Tar eh blows  yer har happy days are here again !!!!!!
The bailout and rate reduction is work at last


----------



## Mickel

Glen48 said:


> Tar eh blows  yer har happy days are here again !!!!!!
> The bailout and rate reduction is work at last




Not quite yet, Glen.

LNC currently $3.62 after falling to $3.55 earlier today, with volume of 344,000.


----------



## Goldmann

long way from out of the woods on this credit crunch / banking crisis / liquidity crisis... but just had to top up on LINC at 3.58... 

might drop futher than this in the short term, but long term is looking good for the boys from chinchilla...


----------



## joestjack

Even with all the credit crisis happening, I'm amazed to see LNC down at $3.50 again.

They're on the verge of producing liquids which is an absolutely huge moment for the company since it proves that what they're actually trying to do, works.

I would have at least expected it to hold at $4.50. Goes to show the state of the overall market I guess?

I'm holding though.


----------



## Goldmann

Goldmann said:


> long way from out of the woods on this credit crunch / banking crisis / liquidity crisis... but just had to top up on LINC at 3.58...
> 
> might drop further than this in the short term, but long term is looking good for the boys from chinchilla...




looks like i was right... did drop further... and i bought some more at 3.30... this is starting to feel like blind optimism!!!


----------



## basilio

I hope there are plenty of Balls of Steel amongst Linc investors. 

One would think that with a cash value of around $3.60 a share from the agreed sale of the Teresa coal tenements, a wealth of other coal discoveries and the imminent production of oil from the pilot plant there would be some resilience in the share price.

*But Linc tanks by 18%. * Certainty come come soon enough.


----------



## Glen48

What happens if OIL goes down to say 60 - 70 a barrel ??? Will Lnc still be viable ?
Any one got any cure for premature Greying?
I rang Life line and told me to push the hash key and enjoy???


----------



## bluekat

Linc remains a spec stock until it produces liquids, and then not commercially, so the market in these times reacts accordingly.
Maybe the Chinese are also waiting for liquids, just maybe.

As I said before, Linc are not inventing the wheel, merely inventing the rubber tyre that goes on the wheel. The new techno is only 10%, the rest has been done before. ( As Bond has explained,, boardroom radio )

So hang on, because, look at the news going forward, what company will have more SP momentum news.


----------



## joestjack

Glen48 said:


> What happens if OIL goes down to say 60 - 70 a barrel ??? Will Lnc still be viable ?
> Any one got any cure for premature Greying?
> I rang Life line and told me to push the hash key and enjoy???




Maybe oil might go that low but it wont matter. Over the long term oil will continue to rise and that's where lnc will kick @$$.

You've gotta remember Linc won't be able to produce on a commercial scale for at least a year or more. By that time it will be a whole different market (we hope).

I would have to think that if the p/plant is all up to scratch, over the coming months & years linc will sign contracts to provide the technology to companies all over the world.

I'm no pro, but I reckon most of lnc's potential is in selling the technology, rather than building their own plant and selling the diesel etc.

Could anyone give me their opinion on that?


----------



## Santoro

What are the price per barrel figures based on....the AUD is down to 0.68 which means the price of oil in australian dollar terms is 128 per barrel. When oil peaked at 148 our dollar was about .96. The price at the pump certainly hasn't plummeted its holding fast. Would OPEC cut production to hold the price steady at 80-90??


----------



## Calliope

joestjack said:


> Maybe oil might go that low but it wont matter. Over the long term oil will continue to rise and that's where lnc will kick @$$.
> 
> You've gotta remember Linc won't be able to produce on a commercial scale for at least a year or more. By that time it will be a whole different market (we hope).
> 
> I would have to think that if the p/plant is all up to scratch, over the coming months & years linc will sign contracts to provide the technology to companies all over the world.
> 
> I'm no pro, but I reckon most of lnc's potential is in selling the technology, rather than building their own plant and selling the diesel etc.
> 
> Could anyone give me their opinion on that?




I agree with you . As soon as the demonstration starts producing diesel, then the concept becomes a saleable commodity, and Linc have laid the foundations in other countries where they have agreements for this package (CTG/GTL) to be up and running probably much quicker than can be done here with our massive red tape.

As for the present price of oil, I don't think that is what is hammering the stock. It is more likely just irrational behaviour. The price of diesel at my garage this morning was $1.60. A barrel of oil is 159 litres. That makes the price at the pump $254 per barrel. From what I have read, in full production, Linc can produce the diesel for around $20 a barrel.

And as everybody knows, oilis getting scarcer.


----------



## awg

It would be really interesting to know whether insiders have been selling

does anyone have access to this info?

I believe the share register is fairly tightly held at the top

sorry i dont have time at the minute to do this research.

I expect that there must have been some OS holders selling down, in order to repatriate due to the A$ slaughter.

other reasons could be simply profit taking or margin calls

or some holdup in the tenement sale to China

or plant commisioning problems...chemical plants are notoriously prone to commission delay.

 dont forget, the CEO has done a real slick sales job so far.

I want to state that i do not consider this to be rumour mongering, only searching for reasons.

i disclose holdings and have not sold


----------



## mexican

Really the price of oil should not be taken into consideration.IMO.
The US already stating that they will not be held to ransom by dictators and tyrants from oil producing countries and it is time to become self sufficient. Importing 60% of oil and climbing.
Also the US military wants all military equipment to be operating on bio fuels with in the next ten years.
Got to look at the bigger picture.


----------



## Mickel

joestjack said:


> Maybe oil might go that low but it wont matter. Over the long term oil will continue to rise and that's where lnc will kick @$$.
> 
> You've gotta remember Linc won't be able to produce on a commercial scale for at least a year or more. By that time it will be a whole different market (we hope).
> 
> I would have to think that if the p/plant is all up to scratch, over the coming months & years linc will sign contracts to provide the technology to companies all over the world.
> 
> I'm no pro, but I reckon most of lnc's potential is in selling the technology, rather than building their own plant and selling the diesel etc.
> 
> Could anyone give me their opinion on that?




P Bond has previously stated that they can produce diesel for USD28. USD80 per barrel is a profit of USD52 or AUD74.28 pb so at USD 80 pb it is still very profitable.

From the ASX announcement Sept 11-

11 September 2008
LINC SIGNS UP FOR CHINA
• Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) and Xinwen Mining Group have signed a Letter of Intent to develop Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas to Liquids (GTL) in China. Further to the Heads of Agreement recently announced with the Xinwen Mining Group (Xinwen) for the purchase of Linc Energy’s Emerald “Teresa” Coal Exploration Permits for AU$1.5 billion, Linc Energy announces today that it has signed a Letter of Intent with Xinwen to develop UCG and GTL in the Yining Mining Area of China.
The Yinan and Yibei coal fields in the Yining Mining Area owned by Xinwen cover over 479 square kilometres, and have a reported 15.37 billion tonnes of coal and an exploration target of an additional 14.87 billion tonnes through further drilling. (Non JORC Code standard).
Under the Letter of Intent the companies have agreed to negotiate the terms of a formal agreement to form a Joint Stock Company for the purpose of developing UCG fields to produce gas for transport directly to Shanghai through the “West to East” pipeline project already under construction and to provide the feedstock for a GTL facility to produce liquids that will be transported by pipeline to the Dushanzi Oil Refinery. It is expected that all
negotiations and the establishment of the Joint Stock Company will be finalised by the end of 2008.
Linc Energy’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr Peter Bond said “This is an exciting development as Xinwen already has government approval for Underground Coal Gasification. This means that once commercial terms are finalised, Linc Energy and its partner Xinwen can move directly into commercialisation of UCG and GTL to very quickly monetise stranded coal in China, on the back of the considerable work already completed by Linc Energy at Chinchilla in Queensland. Subsequently, these projects offer an opportunity to quickly
generate revenue for Linc Energy’s shareholders.”

So it looks like a joint venture in China with Xinwen. The question is how much (if any) capital will Linc put into the joint venture. They may pay for any equity from future profits. Also P Bond has stated he is keen to set up a commercial GTL plant in Aust- either Chinchilla or Sth Aust in his annual report.

So I think the initial plants will be either fully owned or joint ventures. The Merriman Curhan Ford (US Analysts) report on Sept 8 projected initial income
from a commercial Cinchilla GTL plant in April 2011 which was based on Linc's aim to start construction of the plant by June 2009. 

AND who knows what the oil price will be in 2011 considering the volatility in the last 6 months. Even in a recession oil reserves will be declining and prices of USD 60 to 80 could be expected, but again, who knows ?

In the medium term (2013/2014) Linc could well start licensing its technology but they may be limited in the number of agreements they reach by experienced supervisory staff available.

Kenny Rogers sings "you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em".  I'm holding, and, when the diesel flows, it won't be much of a gamble in my opinion.


----------



## Mickel

LNC currently trading at $3.28 with a trading range so far today of $3.05- 3.42
for volume of 664,000.

Hope it stays positive for the rest of today.


----------



## Glen48

Word is China closed down for weeks holiday as you do in a recession and LNC  have sorted out the iOU's etc written a receipt for the $1.5 B Re booted the floppy drive and should be back on track. So keep the WD40 up to the testicles ( if you have any left) and hold on.


----------



## WindriderAU

I hope they are able to produce diesel out of the gas sometime soon. Might be something that keeps this stock buoyant when other stocks (globally) are crashing. Let's see how we go over the next couple of weeks, announcement can't be too far away.


----------



## sniperdog

I really want to buy into this stock but its on the support level at $3 and the odds of more global bad news over the next week are pretty good. Deal or no deal if it breaches $2.80 its hello $1 imho. Energy stocks are usually good during recession/depressions but rational thinking has taken a backseat lately so who knows. Roll the dice, hope you win.


----------



## noirua

I don't hold Linc Energy anymore, as I sold out a bit too soon.  Now in "TRADING HALT", this morning.


----------



## Glen48

LNC in a trading halt???? any one heard or know any thing???
Far as i know all should be going OK do we wait or look at buying some more?


----------



## flipztacy

Trading halt this morning.. bets on good news or bad news?? would be interested to here all you fellow holders of linc here?? im holder bought in yesterdat at 3.20..

cheers


----------



## andrew08

Hopefully this is the good news everyones been waiting for. Why would they call a halt to announce this though. Kind of makes me think there could be a problem but i know this is unlikely.

Unfortunately don't hold. Held off buying yesterday and just logged on to hopefully pick it up a bit cheaper with sell off today.


----------



## 0239666

This trading halt should be good news. They wouldn't put their trading on hold so that they can deliver bad news. Or have they stopped trading so that there isn't a massive selling of shares because of the failure to produce liquids by the weekend. What do you guys reckon?


----------



## joestjack

0239666 said:


> This trading halt should be good news. They wouldn't put their trading on hold so that they can deliver bad news. Or have they stopped trading so that there isn't a massive selling of shares because of the failure to produce liquids by the weekend. What do you guys reckon?




As I understand it, trading halts are fairly normal before big announcements. AGO went into trading halt the other day pending a big announcement.

In saying that, LNC never called a halt before announcing the heads of agreement for the $1.5b chinese deal?

I'm staying positive. According to PB gas has now been introduced to all areas of the plant. The major hold up was the faulty computer cards.

It would be almost impossible to build something of this magnitude without any previous proven models and have it work perfectly straight away.

That's my take on things anyway...


----------



## joestjack

Wow - All Ords down 7% in morning trade.

May sound crazy but I actually feel priviledged to be here to see this all happening. - its possibly once in a lifetime stuff.

Plus this will make us all appreciate the prosperous times a lot more when they return.

Maybe I'm just on drugs.


----------



## basilio

Well the great news is that LINC will be the best performing share on the ASX for at least a couple of days. Great time to call a time out.

Current history of this panicked market is that nothing is getting in the way of sellers trying to salvage whatever is left of their savings. So any announcement is being disregarded. 

I'd say ( I sincerely hope..)  that Peter is protecting LINC from the panic and crafting a very convincing story that may even result in an influx of new shareholders.  Hopefully the story has 3 parts.

1) The  engineering success of the pilot plant and confidence that the proposed commercial versions will be similarly effective.

2)* Cast iron* confirmation of the Xinwen purchase of the Teresa coal tenement for $1.5 billion and confirmation of funds acquisition over the next 6 months. He might even *spell out* that this gives LINC a cash box value of $3.60 + a share as well as absolute certainty of development capital.

3) Announcement of  near term coal to oil projects with Xinwen given the success of the pilot plant.

As part of the bigger picture I would expect LINC to highlight the desperate need to replace rapidly depleting global oil reserves and the opportunity and necessity for LINC to bring on as many coal-to oil plants ASAP.

How does that sound ?


----------



## Pigsy

I'm with you Basilio. Good strategy IMHO. Look what happened to Carbon Energy CNX yesterday. They announce commercial UCG trial begins and their sp dives 11%. Today they're down 23%! Best not to be involved in this market at the moment.


----------



## korrupt_1

yeh, i suspect this halt may be a delay tactic to insulate LNC from more downside pressure whilst the market goes through this purging process. it's a good smart move by PB if that is the case... this will maximise the speculated positive annoucement LNC has yet to make... and allow LNC to rally from a higher level... had LNC been trading today, it's possible it maybe trading around support at $2.80 today.

i haven't read the details of the halt yet... is there a timeframe when it will be lifted?


----------



## Glen48

Maybe the find a heap of Gold and Diamonds blocking their pipes and had to stop to clean them out which means they will go down Tuesday or the Floppy disk use to boot the pc went through the washing


----------



## flipztacy

Does anyone think trading halt could be possible bad news??? if so how much think lnc will plummet to?


----------



## joestjack

korrupt_1 said:


> yeh, i suspect this halt may be a delay tactic to insulate LNC from more downside pressure whilst the market goes through this purging process. it's a good smart move by PB if that is the case... this will maximise the speculated positive annoucement LNC has yet to make... and allow LNC to rally from a higher level... had LNC been trading today, it's possible it maybe trading around support at $2.80 today.
> 
> i haven't read the details of the halt yet... is there a timeframe when it will be lifted?




The ASX announcement reads...

"the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Tuesday, 14 October 2008 or when the announcement is released to the market."

Tuesday is good because it should give Linc another day to get the plant up and running.


----------



## grace

korrupt_1 said:


> yeh, i suspect this halt may be a delay tactic to insulate LNC from more downside pressure whilst the market goes through this purging process. it's a good smart move by PB if that is the case... this will maximise the speculated positive annoucement LNC has yet to make... and allow LNC to rally from a higher level... had LNC been trading today, it's possible it maybe trading around support at $2.80 today.
> 
> i haven't read the details of the halt yet... is there a timeframe when it will be lifted?




Geez, I wish all of my holdings were in trading halt!  Some have good news overdue too.  This would be the only ASX200 stock not in negative today from what I gather.


----------



## flipztacy

Hi Grace

You seem to have insider knoweledge when it comes to LINC... do you think this trading halt is for good news we are waiting for??


----------



## grace

flipztacy said:


> Hi Grace
> 
> You seem to have insider knoweledge when it comes to LINC... do you think this trading halt is for good news we are waiting for??




No.  Suspect it will be good news though.  I've been waiting for this for what seems a life time.  Feeling a little too sick about my other holdings to worry about bad news from linc.  We must be close to this bottem now....(off topic I know).  PB's marketing skills will hopefully shine next week.  Black Friday and Monday will be gone, lets hope.


----------



## eric35

from AIR Midday report:
Linc Energy (LNC) have been placed in a trading halt pending an announcement on its Chinchilla coal-to-liquids facility - production of liquids from a demonstration facility has been slightly delayed on mechanical issue.


----------



## flipztacy

Hi Eric

where did you hear this news? i mean do you have a link?? how realiable is it? hmms ive done some search cant seem find any info..


----------



## flipztacy

eric35 said:


> from AIR Midday report:
> Linc Energy (LNC) have been placed in a trading halt pending an announcement on its Chinchilla coal-to-liquids facility - production of liquids from a demonstration facility has been slightly delayed on mechanical issue.





eric read article on the australian - that mechanical issue was on monday announcments...

was bit worried for a few minutes then


----------



## Calliope

My guess is that LNC will make their ann on Monday morning and then resume trading. A logical assumption from their ann last Monday is that they will tell us that the demo plant is producing diesel.

This is the news everybody is waiting for, but is the market receptive to good news? Some very good energy stocks  have taken a hammering today. The downside is, it is a toss up as to whether good news will send Lnc up or will it continue down.

On the upside, we will know that Lnc is on the right track.


----------



## 0239666

If they announce the production of diesel and the SP continues to slide down because of market chaos then at least your getting a good price on a sure thing.


----------



## Glen48

Suppose if you have shares in LNC just sit back and ride it out until G W is kicked out and Palin get the reigns and sorts it all out selling Moose burgers to help the USA economy.
Don't look for the bottom there isn't any.


----------



## Santoro

In this market I don't think good news has been doing anything positive to share prices other than reducing the amount it falls by....so good or bad I doubt whether the price will rise with any significance. Unfortunately....shame this news didn't come out 2-3 weeks ago....


----------



## Lachlan6

It could be worse considering the state of the markets at the moment. LNC looks to be in a larger corrective move currently and the wave (C). I have labelled the stock in the wave 3 of this larger wave (C) which seems clear due to the impulsive nature of the move down. The important thing now is if the August lows hold up, or if the stock can pierce through by a small margin. I think this is certainly one to put on a watchlist to see how it pans out.


----------



## Bobcat

Morningstar Daily Research Update - Friday, 10 October 2008

Linc Energy (LNC) is expected to commence demonstration production at its Chinchilla gas-to-liquids project in Queensland state early next weak, a person close to the situation said. Linc shares were placed in a trading halt pending an announcement by the company no later than the commencement of trade on Tuesday. "The halt is expected to be lifted Tuesday ahead of first production of liquids from the demonstration plant," the person said. On Monday, Linc said production had been "slightly" delayed due to minor mechanical issues and was expected to begin this coming weekend. LNC remained unchanged at $3.20.


----------



## eric35

could well be good news. However it takes a lot of good news in this market to lift the share price. I do feel that we could have an up day on Monday, maybe a dead cat bounce. 

LNC is the only stock I am hanging on to, I am totally in cash otherwise. bargains will come up


----------



## Glen48

Take a punt and buy in at 10.01 Tuesday morn and get back all that we have lost over the past month or wait and see which way it goes? Suppose we should see what happens on NYSE tonight Friday their time.
How many more 10-15% daily drops can be left in the market?


----------



## agro

trading halt till tuesday.. they r biting time,

these people r smart.. when they make their ann

boom


----------



## Pigsy

The Dow traded in negative territory again Friday (-1.5%). They're haling that as a good day. The key thing will be what the world leaders announce over the weekend to save the world.  Australia will be the one of the first markets to open after that announcement.  This could be the launching pad for a good day on Monday. If LNC's news is good it could send the sp upward.
That's what I'm hoping anyway.


----------



## Glen48

The next problem is if they rocket do you sell and buy back in again  once the market goes down again?
I can see the market keep going down until investors decide its time.


----------



## Santoro

Glen48 said:


> The next problem is if they rocket do you sell and buy back in again  once the market goes down again?
> I can see the market keep going down until investors decide its time.




The only thing that will get this stock price moving is the completion of the Emerald Teresa Tenement, if this falls through this stock is going to suffer, 1.5 billion in cash will be an enormous asset in this market, that said this technology is very attractive to China and others as they will be able to source energy from within their borders rather than relying on imports there by keeping the money within their economies.


----------



## ColB

Something else to add to their ASX announcement on Tuesday (See article below.)  Liquids plus another deal!  That would be nice!

*Project puts underground coal gasification on trial run*

The Vietnam Coal-Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) is to work with partners from Australia and Japan on trial use of underground coal gasification (UCG) technology in the Red River coal basin.

To this end, Vinacomin signed a 6.5 million USD project with Australia’s Linc Energy Ltd. and the Marubeni Corporation of Japan in Hanoi on *Oct. 11.* 

Of the total investment, Vinacomin contributes up to 60 percent, while the rest is shouldered equally by Linc Energy and Marubeni.

The deal, which goes into effect imediately after the signing, is designed to conduct geological study and UCG at the Tien Dung mine in Khoai Chau district, Hung Yen province, 30 km to the northeast of Hanoi.

Vinacomin chairman Doan Van Kien said if the trial use of UCG technology proves to be successful, it will open up a great prospect for the exploitation of the entire Red River coal basin which is estimated to boast reserves of 20-30 billion tonnes, 5-6 times higher than the northeastern Quang Ninh mine.

The project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2009. The concerned partners are planning to set up a joint venture to use gas bumped out from the targeted mines to produce electricity and diesel once the project yields positive results.

Source: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/10/808099/


----------



## namrog

ColB said:


> Something else to add to their ASX announcement on Tuesday (See article below.)  Liquids plus another deal!  That would be nice!
> 
> *Project puts underground coal gasification on trial run*
> 
> The Vietnam Coal-Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) is to work with partners from Australia and Japan on trial use of underground coal gasification (UCG) technology in the Red River coal basin.
> 
> To this end, Vinacomin signed a 6.5 million USD project with Australia’s Linc Energy Ltd. and the Marubeni Corporation of Japan in Hanoi on *Oct. 11.*
> 
> Of the total investment, Vinacomin contributes up to 60 percent, while the rest is shouldered equally by Linc Energy and Marubeni.
> 
> The deal, which goes into effect imediately after the signing, is designed to conduct geological study and UCG at the Tien Dung mine in Khoai Chau district, Hung Yen province, 30 km to the northeast of Hanoi.
> 
> Vinacomin chairman Doan Van Kien said if the trial use of UCG technology proves to be successful, it will open up a great prospect for the exploitation of the entire Red River coal basin which is estimated to boast reserves of 20-30 billion tonnes, 5-6 times higher than the northeastern Quang Ninh mine.
> 
> The project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2009. The concerned partners are planning to set up a joint venture to use gas bumped out from the targeted mines to produce electricity and diesel once the project yields positive results.
> 
> Source: http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/10/808099/




That's another bit of great news.
I'm quietly confident about this week.
We are living in a history making period, possibly on a couple of fronts !!


----------



## Mickel

Santoro said:


> The only thing that will get this stock price moving is the completion of the Emerald Teresa Tenement, if this falls through this stock is going to suffer, 1.5 billion in cash will be an enormous asset in this market, that said this technology is very attractive to China and others as they will be able to source energy from within their borders rather than relying on imports there by keeping the money within their economies.




Given that-

1. The US market dropped only about 1% on Fri and 
2. The G20 Finance Ministers were united on Sat (even if a bit vague)

I think our market won't drop much further (perhaps 1%) if at all.
If this is the case and an announcement by LNC that the long awaited diesel has started to flow, the market will re-rate the stock and the price should move north by $1+ IMHO.

I agree that the completion of the "Teresa tenement" sale will have a positive
effect on the share price and any negative news on this front will see the stock take a dive initially. Don't forget LNC will still own a very valuable asset.

As previously stated I hold LNC shares.


----------



## cartel31

There are traders out there that only do 1 thing, and that is day trade! These guys are sick and tired IMO of these ridiculous conditions. There are always a few stocks in the green even on a day like Friday. Not to mention there isn't any shortselling to profit from the downtrend. 

If the ann is positive I can only expect 1 thing and that is North after a short delay of traders looking at each other for a few minutes before the pounce. A opportuinity to make a good 10% to 150% in a day IMO if the liquids are produced and the sale of the coal tenements have gone through (both together - maybe thats a little optimistic but this PB is a very switched on fella).

If and only if the price goes south and and liquids are produced, I say hold on to your hats because QAN, TOL, and many overseas companies heavily dependant energy will absolutely jump on this to get a share. I wouldn't be suprised if WPL or STO make an offer thats already been crafted and just waiting for the production of liquids.

Look at the SP of QAN absolutly smashed (not as much as others), oil is dropping but so is the the AUD offsetting any gain. If I were running QAN and these liquids we're produced I would jump on LNC. Are they this smart? Would you think they haven't even heard of LNC? 

All I know is, anyone that thinks LNC will drop after the two announcement of the sale and the production of liquids, would fear a drop in the price would noway be possible when comes to the time to trade. They will buy in panic in fear of missing out on any gains to offset against their losses to date on something so sound like LNC (you would think any1 in the market at the moment would have been severely affected by these conditions and looking to make a correction of their losses).

With the Queensland government to have a **** load of a decrease in taxes from a slowing commodity market, they would allow for a production plant to be built if they don't they can easily build a production plant in South Australia on their other property. PB knows what his doing, his the contingency king.

Even if it's not in Australia, China will be willing and even foot the whole bill for the building of the mass production plant. This technology was already proven by the Russians, its not like its never been done, it will work, esspecially if PB is on the case. He holds to many shares and wouldn't stand to lose money on this, his probly got a million contingency plans, its a matter on succeeding for him know, he wouldn't settle for anything less.

They have already got the money to build the new plant with the sale of the tenement, no debt needed. Even if it doesnt work this week it would be a reason to buy more, PB will screw it through.

By the way DYOR and everything I say or think is totally bull****, don't listen to me I don't know anything!!! I bought back in to LNC at 3.52 looking to average out so I would be delighted to buy in at a further ridiculously low price.

Happy trading every1.


----------



## joestjack

Mickel said:


> Given that-
> 
> 1. The US market dropped only about 1% on Fri and
> 2. The G20 Finance Ministers were united on Sat (even if a bit vague)
> 
> I think our market won't drop much further (perhaps 1%) if at all.
> If this is the case and an announcement by LNC that the long awaited diesel has started to flow, the market will re-rate the stock and the price should move north by $1+ IMHO.
> 
> I agree that the completion of the "Teresa tenement" sale will have a positive
> effect on the share price and any negative news on this front will see the stock take a dive initially. Don't forget LNC will still own a very valuable asset.
> 
> As previously stated I hold LNC shares.




I agree. I don't think the market will go too much further south.

At the end of the day, eventually panic & fear has to give way to common sense, and common sense says there are some absolute bargains on the market.

The prosperity will return. Just a matter of when.

That's probably the major reason the All Ords is up 5% today.


----------



## Glen48

I have a few shares in CNM who are in to clean coal tech. and a few other lines , their shares went up to day 14.8% which could be a good indicator of where punters are looking to invest????


----------



## Mickel

PB stated in the ASX Announcement 6/10 " Linc Energy will have a team in China to finalize the contract in the week beginning the 13th October 2008".

My view is that the Linc team flew from Vietnam to China on the weekend after signing the Vietnam deal, as mentioned in recent previous posts here.

Given that Xinwen have ongoing MUA's with Linc to produce liquids from their vast coal tenements in China, it would be reasonable to assume that they may wish to finalize the $1.5 B Teresa sale after the announcement that the diesel is flowing.

If so, the 2 announcements within hours/days of each other should put a rocket under the SP.

The above comments are speculation so DYOR.


----------



## cartel31

MUST SEE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE BY LINC CEO PETER BOND

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=_gHvIAPUIjI

Explaining what LNC plans to do and has done. They have a load of coal fields that are still yet to be sold or put to use. $28 a barrel for oil equivelent in cost, now thats low cost.


----------



## Wigspotter

So how about that announcement...?  They're cutting it a bit fine don't you think?  No announcement would be disappointing.

C


----------



## Tweaksta

The announcement is up!!!

LINC ENERGY PRODUCES FIRST GTL LIQUIDS AT CHINCHILLA SITE.

Let the games begin.


----------



## Mickel

Tweaksta said:


> The announcement is up!!!
> 
> LINC ENERGY PRODUCES FIRST GTL LIQUIDS AT CHINCHILLA SITE.
> 
> Let the games begin.




They have begun with SP opening at 4.15 then fluctuating between 4.29 and 4.10. Currently 4.15 with volume of  1,015,083. Not bad for 15 minutes.

Celebrations tonight !


----------



## Calliope

How do you get to be a sophisticated investor? A share placement was made today of 5.86 million shares at 2.90 to "sophisticated offshore and local investors".  You wouldn't have to be too smart to snaffle that up when they were trading on panic Friday at 3.20, and liquids due to flow. 

Even a dumbarse like me would have grabbed that with a  dollar a share profit to be made in minutes.


----------



## Rastan

sliding below 3.80.... i bought friday BEFORE last week (4.60) and this slide is killing me - i was hoping they would have support at 4.10 then 4... now i dont know what to think... how low will they go... i was certainly expecting more than the 3.75 they are on now....


----------



## Goldmann

Calliope said:


> How do you get to be a sophisticated investor? A share placement was made today of 5.86 million shares at 2.90 to "sophisticated offshore and local investors".  You wouldn't have to be too smart to snaffle that up when they were trading on panic Friday at 3.20, and liquids due to flow.
> 
> Even a dumbarse like me would have grabbed that with a  dollar a share profit to be made in minutes.




Yeah this is ridiculous... those same sophisticated investors are no doubt the ones that are selling it down now and taking their profit... its the long term holders who are getting jibbed here via a dilution... why do they need the money is more of a question - with the cash soon to roll in from China...

Disappointed this cant hold $4 - its going to be a long time before any more good news.. this was the rocket that was supposed to send this back towards $5...


----------



## Mickel

Rastan said:


> sliding below 3.80.... i bought friday BEFORE last week (4.60) and this slide is killing me - i was hoping they would have support at 4.10 then 4... now i dont know what to think... how low will they go... i was certainly expecting more than the 3.75 they are on now....




Hold your nerve, Rastan. At least until they announce that the $1.5 B sale has been signed and sealed which should be this week.

Me, I'll be holding for years. And wouldn't it be great if PB decided to approve a special dividend of, say 0.10, which would only take about $42M of that $1.5B to give long term shareholders some cashflow.

Currently LNC is 3.99 with volume of 1,933,247


----------



## Glen48

I tried to buy in 1 minute after opening and got in at $4.15 looks to me like a smart person should wait until the profit takes finish I could have got in at 3.70 if I had waited 1 hour????


----------



## joestjack

Goldmann said:


> Yeah this is ridiculous... those same sophisticated investors are no doubt the ones that are selling it down now and taking their profit... its the long term holders who are getting jibbed here via a dilution... why do they need the money is more of a question - with the cash soon to roll in from China...
> 
> Disappointed this cant hold $4 - its going to be a long time before any more good news.. this was the rocket that was supposed to send this back towards $5...




I think the lack of confidence in the market has a lot to do with it also.

We saw a similar thing when they announced the $1.5b deal - the SP rocketed 40% then in about 2 days (i think) it was falling again.

I'm thinking that a lot of people are taking their small profits and running with them, which is why everytime linc has a positive announcement, it just gets absorbed like a sponge.

Patience & balls of steel are strong virtues in this market.

Give it time. This is definitely a long term thing.


----------



## luckypaul

LADIES PLEASE, NEVER PANIC! Volumes are still relatively low (just over 2 million) and the news isn't really out there yet. Give it time. Also don't forget that the Xinwen Emerald "Teresa" coal sale will "finalise the contract in the week begining the 13 October 2008" (From 'Update to the Market" dated 6 October 2008). Also remember that hedge funds and mutual funds are currently selling to fund redemptions so it may take a while before they consider Linc for a potential fantastic purchase (which it is). Hang in there but start praying that the market rebound holds up long enough for all of the good news to come out.


----------



## aleckara

Just to get a better idea of this stock:

I can see in the forum and in the news that this stock has a lot of hype about it, and a lot of loyalty it seems. Lots of euphoria.

I note today's announcement while positive is simply for the trial. I can't seem to find when they believe they will be selling product commercially (i.e don't see a timetable anywhere).

Does anyone here know these dates?


----------



## luckypaul

36 months to commercial GTL Plant completion (12 mths for Gov approval plus 24 months to construct) Source: Latest video on the Linc website http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pc/ Note: I had problems playing this all the way thru but got far enough to answer the question on timeframe. It al looks good, but all good things take time.


----------



## Denny Crane

So...

simple, crude and conservative valuation... assuming all goes to plan in the next year or two:

20,000 bpd -> US$80 crude price -> US$30 cost -> US$50 margin -> US$306 million p.a profit -> *AUD $408 million profit p.a* @ .75 exchange rate

Then you have to factor in the ramp up in production, and start factoring in valuations for its other projects and tenaments, plus the leftover cash from $1.5 billion sale of Teresa...

You can see why there's interest now alec... maybe?


----------



## bluekat

The signed contract with China is worth $3.00 plus to the company per share, so it has been delayed, the market is waiting, again as it is late.


----------



## WindriderAU

Woops...my bad. Commencement of commercial facility within the next 12 months, not operating within 12 months. So I guess however long it takes to build the plant plus 12 months or so.


----------



## Mickel

Denny Crane said:


> So...
> 
> simple, crude and conservative valuation... assuming all goes to plan in the next year or two:
> 
> 20,000 bpd -> US$80 crude price -> US$30 cost -> US$50 margin -> US$306 million p.a profit -> *AUD $408 million profit p.a* @ .75 exchange rate
> 
> Then you have to factor in the ramp up in production, and start factoring in valuations for its other projects and tenaments, plus the leftover cash from $1.5 billion sale of Teresa...
> 
> You can see why there's interest now alec... maybe?




Denny, BBY in their analyst report of 8 Sept (after the $1.5B ann) gave a profit of $629,551,430 AUD in the 3rd yr of production.The report is accessible on the Linc website under the tab of "Investor Centre" click on Analyst Reports. They should have another report out later today or tomorrow.

I've also seen the video message (dated Oct 08) by PB and confirm a previous post that the time frame given by PB is 3 years to commercial production. It is also accessible on the Linc website under the "News & Links" tab click on video message.

The analyst report says 85% production in 1st yr and 90% in 2nd yr. So, given that if these timelines eventuate we would have 9 months production by 30/6/2012 @ 85% capacity,we could expect a profit ofapprox $400M. The report also is based on oil at USD75 pb and exchange rate @ 0.80 (Any rate less than .80 would result in more profit). And you're right Denny, there is so much more.

It will be interesting to see the new analyst report from BBY.

Watch out for buying interest from USA tomorrow !


----------



## Tweaksta

I can't help feeling a little disappointed by today's performance....

Several other stocks in my portfolio have had a great two days of gains, LNC however was a fizzler.

Who would've guessed that I could've (or would've) made more money today from investing the same amount into Babcock?

I'm still holding though....

I hope we continue to gain tomorrow.....please God, Jesus, Jah, Mohammed and Buddha - keep us in the green for at least another day!


----------



## joestjack

Tweaksta said:


> I can't help feeling a little disappointed by today's performance....
> 
> Several other stocks in my portfolio have had a great two days of gains, LNC however was a fizzler.
> 
> Who would've guessed that I could've (or would've) made more money today from investing the same amount into Babcock?
> 
> I'm still holding though....
> 
> I hope we continue to gain tomorrow.....please God, Jesus, Jah, Mohammed and Buddha - keep us in the green for at least another day!




Yes, very disappointing.

Once again I put it down to a lack of confidence. There were buy orders being placed above $4 but the sellers are continually prepared to bail out at low prices.

I'll be interested to see what happens tomorrow.


----------



## basilio

Well tweaksta you must have had an infinite supply of steel balls if you have been playing with BNB over the last 12 months and more recently. I noticed you were hoping BNB's bottom was at $7.00 earlier this year.

Today *was *disappointing given LNC started at it's highpoint and just kept going down.  I think the reality is that there is very little confidence left in this market and that taking a real dollar today seems more attractive than waiting for Godot. Lets remember that there is immeasurable ugliness in the current financial world being papered over with  *trillions* of dollars of freshly printed dollar bills. (Doesn't that reality scare you ****less !)

One announcement by one small company of the success of its pilot plant will not turn the market around. LNC is a strategic company  offering potentially immense  long term returns.  But it still has to survive and thrive. Many pioneers don't.


----------



## 0239666

Who would have thought we would have been crying over a 15% increase in SP. But I guess everyone here was expecting more with the good news finally here. Maybe it will rise slowly. The good news wont be in the paper until tomorow. Interest in Linc might start to snowball slowly.


----------



## Denny Crane

Thanks Mickel for better specific guidance.

Look forward to the new valuation reports, but I can't fathom it materially changing from their previous valuations.

I wonder how much they could make from project work such as this Vietnam contract?


----------



## korrupt_1

haha... classic example of buy the rumour, sell the fact trading...

everyone just relax - take a chill pill... all this pent-up anticipation for actual liquid production was like a virgin on the first night waiting for that orgasm, that ever came... lol... sorry to anyone who is in the red...

but guys,.. if fundamentals are healthy - and they are... you have nothing to worry about... think of what it could be worth in 12 months...


----------



## Santoro

Sounds like most were a little ambitious...didn't notice the plunge last week...alot of people would have lost alot of money.....takes a bit more than two days of gains and good news to instill confidence.....may take a few weeks before people start to forget the recent hammering.....i'm holding over time this will slowly gain as deals are made to exploit coal reserves in Vietnam, China, US etc....production is better than imports....


----------



## namrog

Posted elsewhere earlier today,

So first liquids produced today, gotta say I'm a little dissapointed with the SP performance, had expected well over $4 by now and nearer $5, considering a lot of other energy shares are up as much or more, on no news, just rebounding on the back of the dows overnight jump 

The announcement was a bit vague I thought, might have said how much diesel is being produced, and the quality etc, still, I suppose the process has been proven somewhat, and is continueing, and we can expect more info as it becomes available.

The ann also said ( or I might have seen that on the linc site ) that the theresa deal is weeks away from final completion, so , that too has a bit of a dampening effect on the SP, and when finalised will put a firm floor under the share price.

Some investors probably feeling a little peeved at the share placement at a price of $2-90 to sophisticated investors (i.e. mates, business buddies, family ) to raise 17 mil, but really, this is a very small amount in the big scheme of things, and hardly worth worrying about, any financing in the current climate, is good financing in my oppinion. 

All said and done am holding tight for the moment , and looking forward to the future.
LINC have BIG plans, and it's early days yet.  

My oppinion only.
Re Joe.


----------



## aleckara

Denny Crane said:


> So...
> 
> simple, crude and conservative valuation... assuming all goes to plan in the next year or two:
> 
> 20,000 bpd -> US$80 crude price -> US$30 cost -> US$50 margin -> US$306 million p.a profit -> *AUD $408 million profit p.a* @ .75 exchange rate
> 
> Then you have to factor in the ramp up in production, and start factoring in valuations for its other projects and tenaments, plus the leftover cash from $1.5 billion sale of Teresa...
> 
> You can see why there's interest now alec... maybe?




Well I can see it will take them 3 years to even start producing according to the data posted here. Let me put it this way - in 3 years a lot can happen. Good stuff, but also a lot of bad stuff too. In the short term I see this hovering around its range, maybe even going down a little. Not because it is a bad opportunity but because it didn't really sink too much through the subprime crisis. (i.e still at the peaks of the chart).

Good thing for holders; not a good thing for people looking at investing (such as myself). I don't think that it will keep going up much more than other stocks in the market on a bounce IMO.


----------



## joelc

PB is registered as a speaker at a GTL conference in London later this month; http://www.smi-online.co.uk/events/overview.asp?is=5&ref=2961 
Indeed nicely timed with the recent flow of liquids.


----------



## mexican

Well done to P Bond and team! World's first!
A lot of people being negative here, remember why you invested in LNC.
Today will open manys door's for LNC. 
Congrats again LNC!


----------



## MrMarcus

So things are looking more promising then? I must confess I bailed last week when the price started tanking but will probably get back in now.


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> Denny, BBY in their analyst report of 8 Sept (after the $1.5B ann) gave a profit of $629,551,430 AUD in the 3rd yr of production.The report is accessible on the Linc website under the tab of "Investor Centre" click on Analyst Reports. They should have another report out later today or tomorrow.
> 
> I've also seen the video message (dated Oct 08) by PB and confirm a previous post that the time frame given by PB is 3 years to commercial production. It is also accessible on the Linc website under the "News & Links" tab click on video message.
> 
> The analyst report says 85% production in 1st yr and 90% in 2nd yr. So, given that if these timelines eventuate we would have 9 months production by 30/6/2012 @ 85% capacity,we could expect a profit ofapprox $400M. The report also is based on oil at USD75 pb and exchange rate @ 0.80 (Any rate less than .80 would result in more profit). And you're right Denny, there is so much more.
> 
> It will be interesting to see the new analyst report from BBY.
> 
> Watch out for buying interest from USA tomorrow !




New valuation by BBY out. In the euphoria yesterday I forgot that I had picked up an error in the BBY valuation of 8 Sept (and advised LINC) of approx $13 in their conversion per barrel.

So the profit from the 14 Oct Report based on the same exchange rate and price pb of oil is $545,578,117  EBITDA. BBY do say Linc's diesel would command a premium of USD10 to 20 pb but have not taken that into account.

BBY also give a DCF valuation of A$14.94 based on multiple commercial plants and a DCF ratio of 12%. Very interesting reading.

Their 12 month price target is $7.50sh up from $6.50. Their previous target prices have been conservative, but perhaps wise in view of the market in the last few weeks.


----------



## Calliope

While there is no doubt that Linc has passed a significant milestone it should not be forgotten that the major hurdle to further progress is a political one. Bond said it will take 12 months to get the Qld govt okay to proceed. This has nothing to do with the soundness of the company. 

The govt panders to the Greens who hate the use of coal for any type of energy no matter how clean, and will pull any political and environmental strings to get their way.

Luckily Linc have taken  out insurance with South Aust and China. Linc's grand plan will succeed. It will take longer, but the delay waiting for the govt decision can be put to good use. Qld will be the loser.


----------



## Goldmann

Starting to get some good publicity now in the mainstream business press (Sydney Morning Herald etc), and P BOND is off today to the US for an investor presentation... more good times to come... 

hopefully the Teresa sale goes thorugh this week which will give the SP another kick...


----------



## peteai

I have finally taken the plunge or jumped on the bandwagon - a lot of metaphors apply - the story of LNC sounds good just hope its half as good as it sounds

The things I'm unsure about are :

is how easy is for others to do what LNC is doing?
 why the test results have not stated more details


----------



## Mickel

peteai said:


> I have finally taken the plunge or jumped on the bandwagon - a lot of metaphors apply - the story of LNC sounds good just hope its half as good as it sounds
> 
> The things I'm unsure about are :
> 
> is how easy is for others to do what LNC is doing?
> why the test results have not stated more details




No doubt you did your own research, Peteai but perhaps you missed some of the following, most of which is available on their website-

- Linc have been producing Syn gas at Chinchilla for over 10 yrs.
- Linc Bought a Majority share in Ubek company that has used syngas as feedstock for a power station for over 40 yrs.
- Linc has Sth African employees with experience in gas to diesel production
- No one else in the world has converted UCG gas to diesel. All the others have mined the coal then burnt it above ground. A much more expensive and dirtier (environmentally)method.
- Linc have a world class lab on site at Chinchilla where further refinements to their processes are  confirmed.
- It is early days with liquids production and perhaps some of their results are commercially sensitive at this time.
- Their stated aim is to have joint ventures rather than licensing their methods so they can retain more control of their technology.


----------



## avaramo

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1943603/  This could spook a few people and see the share price falling (alot) tomorrow.


----------



## Pigsy

I'm just wondering how everyone is protecting their capital with the way the market is at the moment? Probably safe to assume that a lot have purchased LNC recently expecting some exciting announcements to take place and the sp to go north. Then we get a day like today gapping down 12%+ on open.  Do you have a stop loss in place (doubt with a gap down like this it would have saved anyone)?  Would like to hear what people are doing.

The smart people probably aren't in the market at all.


----------



## Tweaksta

The best way to protect your capital is to stay well away....for the most part I've been quite disciplined and conservative during the crunch.

However, this goddamn LNC gas-to-liquids plant coming online got me excited and in the heat of the moment my emotions overruled my strategy.

Now I feel like a bloody bafoon. I will have to ride it out.


----------



## Glen48

Every time I buy in they go down so I will let you know if I am going to get any more. All I know is they were at 2.86 and up to 5.30 suppose hold on for long term.
No one knows were this will end the Economist from CBA tells us we won't have a recession which is right because we are already in one.


----------



## Glen48

Looks like the market is going to set an new record at going down like the Olympics records are being broken each week.The only ones going up are the small one EG .135 to .140


----------



## Calliope

avaramo said:


> http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1943603/  This could spook a few people and see the share price falling (alot) tomorrow.




Now waiting for Linc to confirm or deny. I was puzzled on Monday when they announced that they had flogged off 5.86 million shares a the bargain basement price of 2,90. Why did they need this cash if they had the China deal sewn up?


----------



## Ruincity

Calliope said:


> Now waiting for Linc to confirm or deny. I was puzzled on Monday when they announced that they had flogged off 5.86 million shares a the bargain basement price of 2,90. Why did they need this cash if they had the China deal sewn up?




Announcement out:

XINWEN RECONFIRMS PROGRESS ON PURCHASE OF EMERALD “TERESA” COAL TENEMENTS
Following meetings this week with the Xinwen Mining Group Ltd of China (“Xinwen”) in Beijing, Linc Energy (ASX : LNC) confirms that the Xinwen Board has approved the purchase of Linc Energy’s Emerald “Teresa” coal tenements. This approval follows successful completion of the due diligence process.
Further, the companies have agreed to an extension of the Heads of Agreement prior to the completion of AU$1.5 billion transaction whilst Xinwen obtain Chinese regulatory approval to enter into the formal contract.
Linc Energy also confirms that throughout the due diligence period and during this extension period, the Company’s drilling program on the Emerald “Teresa” tenements is continuing so as to further define and expand the coal deposit. (Please refer to the attached photographs of drilling activities at Emerald)
For further information about the sale of the Emerald “Teresa” coal tenements, please contact Peter Bond.


----------



## joestjack

Glen48 said:


> Every time I buy in they go down so I will let you know if I am going to get any more. All I know is they were at 2.86 and up to 5.30 suppose hold on for long term.
> No one knows were this will end the Economist from CBA tells us we won't have a recession which is right because we are already in one.




I've got a similar problem - everytime I sell they go up.

Glen48, let's team up and between the two of us we can manipulate the market to our own advantage...

hahahahahhahaha....


----------



## Goldmann

LNC Say:  "Further, the companies have agreed to an extension of the Heads of Agreement prior to the completion of AU$1.5 billion transaction whilst Xinwen obtain Chinese regulatory approval to enter into the formal contract."

Xinwen say: "A senior official from China's Xinwen Mining has denied a report that the deal between the company and Linc Energy, an Australian coal liquefaction company, on buying mining right will be wrapped up within this year as claimed by a senior official of Linc Energy."

This concerns me... Chinese regulatory approval???  A heads of agreement means nothing... just means they will continue talking... Could this be the first Bond error... that LINC announcement actually says nothing if you read it correctly... it was a release aimed at keeping the price at a decent level...starting to get worried now...


----------



## Glen48

They have cost me a few K chasing them around, I see ORG Origin gets a good wrap i will put a few $$ on them so if you have shares sell now before I buy and send them down some more.
Maybe we should buy into Pram factories and cash in on the single Mothers when their loot comes through.
All down more Friday????


----------



## joestjack

Can't believe the All Ords down another 7%. How many of these drops can the market take?

All the share price gain from the liquids production announcement is completely undone now.

Yeah, the announcement today told us nothing. I'm worried why they didn't specify how long the heads of agreement has been extended to.


----------



## ColB

"A Company????? has announced plans......."   What company would be building a diesel plant between Chinchilla & Miles??



> Big diesel plant earmarked for southern Qld
> 
> Thursday, 16 October, 2008
> 
> A company has announced plans to build a major diesel manufacturing facility in southern Queensland.
> 
> Construction of the Sunstate project, between Chinchilla and Miles, could begin as early as next year, employing up to 1,000 people.
> 
> Mayor Ray Brown says it will produce 17,000 barrels of diesel a day from coal seam methane.
> 
> "Its a substantial industry to our region and the first of the value adding type industries," he said.
> 
> "Their idea is to utilise that diesel within about a 200 kilometre radius of Miles and I think that's very good news."
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2392650.htm


----------



## peteai

joestjack said:


> Can't believe the All Ords down another 7%. How many of these drops can the market take?
> 
> All the share price gain from the liquids production announcement is completely undone now.
> 
> Yeah, the announcement today told us nothing. I'm worried why they didn't specify how long the heads of agreement has been extended to.




We are in the capitulation stage - many are selling at any price 
FEAR is dominating GREED is hiding in the corner


----------



## Goldmann

ColB said:


> "A Company????? has announced plans......."   What company would be building a diesel plant between Chinchilla & Miles??




Pacific GTL Ltd
We convert Coal Bed Methane (CBM) to Energy
We develop projects to produce ultra clean diesel from coal seam methane to meet Australia's growing demand for motor transport fuel. Coal bed methane processed through our GTL facilities will optimize the value of the gas. 

Methane, in the form of coal bed methane, is an abundant resource in Queensland. It continues to grow as a proven resource and, when converted to automotive diesel, is a cleaner domestic alternative to imported distillate


----------



## bloubul

I've been holding on to LNC for a while and no reason to jump ship now... as long as PB commits to his plans.

Re. Pacific GTL... 
had a look at their schedule on their website and no way near starting next year as reported in media. 
Engineering and Design -> Start 2010 - Complete Q2 2012
Construction -> Start Q2 2011 - Complete Q1 2014
Commissioning -> Q4 2013 - Complete Q3 2014
Initial Year of Operatation - Q4 2014

My  is that once $1.5b is bankable and QLD gov speeds up approval, there will be no stopping LNC starting construction by Q4 2009.... and could produce liquids by Q4 2012.... and looking at BBY analysis, LNC could have 4 plants operating by 2017. Sasol built 60 000 bpd plant in 2 years.

Cheers
BB


----------



## Pigsy

Been looking at the course of trades today and there's a heap of trades going through at Quantities of 2. What's going on here? All it's doing is dragging the price down. Looks like a bit of market manipulation going on. Can someone explain?  Why doesn't the ASX jump on this sort of thing?


----------



## aleckara

peteai said:


> We are in the capitulation stage - many are selling at any price
> FEAR is dominating GREED is hiding in the corner




Are you sure we have capitulated? I can see that your still interested in stocks, as are a lot of people out there. I hear quite often "wow there is some bargains now". That's not capitulation to me. Capitulation is when most small investors have no hope of ever getting their gains back and just walk away. I don't know if in this market if we will ever see it but it is a possibility. Depends a lot on government action now. The oil price has tanked as well - probably still highly profitable though until other people get in on the action.

I see a lot of hope in LNC. In the short term I think it will go down - people forget that there is still risk here that needs to be discounted that wasn't there before. Look to buy; but I'm not rushing in. Need to see another confirmed uptrend.


----------



## The Dealer

Pigsy said:


> Been looking at the course of trades today and there's a heap of trades going through at Quantities of 2. What's going on here? All it's doing is dragging the price down. Looks like a bit of market manipulation going on. Can someone explain?  Why doesn't the ASX jump on this sort of thing?




Margin calls yesterday on shares like BHP don't help the SP. If you held BHP and then had a ML on it to buy some speccy's like LNC and you got the phone call from the bank, you would have to sell off and LNC first to go.
Remember that the fund managers now have to hold LNC in their portfolio's for the index funds etc. There is not enough to go round. They are buying any that come on the market. That means if they need to sell 2 to keep the price down (the share is only worth what the last person paid for it) so they can meet quota they will.
I was listening to the 2 new president candidates yesterday debate. Both said they are committed to clean coal technology and want to make the US energy self sufficient by 2020. Obama even said "we invented the car, the need to make diesel hybrids here in the USA to help sustain jobs".
I have a large holding in LNC. Got in at $1.89 after told about it at 80c but was a watcher for while. It hurts to see to prices go no where but it now part of the big game, on the world stage and when you consider not only the diesel, that it can power plant for electricity, release trapped energy from hard to get at places that are expensive to mine.
I'm sure there is still good news to come on this but PB is seeing good news released and nothing is happening. 
Maybe when Mr Paulson is spending some of that $700,000,000,000 he will find it in his heart to make sure the USA is able to produce its own energy.
Tell me your worries about this share and its price in 3 years.
Just stop selling to the big players at crap prices and then they have to offer higher prices to share holder for a slice of the action. They aren't getting mine for 5 years and even then LNC may be a dividend payer! Work out the P/E if you paid $3.20 today and the SP gets to $15 in the next 3 years and pays 5% fully franked. It's p/e is 4. Bargain if you can hold off for dividend paying years. I'm sure the fund managers can. Can you?


----------



## Calliope

Very good post Dealer. In the present market the only news that volatile stocks like Linc wiil respond to is bad news. The ups and downs should not worry the long term holder. As I have said before we all bought this stock originally knowing it was high risk. I bought my first batch at 17.5c and have added continually at higher prices on downturns. The volatility tested my nerves, especially on one day when I dropped $50K. 

The various milestones have been attained and there are more to come. I have faith in PB navigating through the shoals.

The oil price is irrelevant. Think about the price of diesel at the pump. Linc expects to turn it out at about one tenth of that price, and this is not crude, it is useable diesel.


----------



## Pigsy

Thanks Dealer for your insight. What p***s me off is if I sold 1 share here and 1 there my broker would close my account down for market manipulation. But it seems the big players can do this without any consequence.


----------



## woltage

Pigsy said:


> Thanks Dealer for your insight. What p***s me off is if I sold 1 share here and 1 there my broker would close my account down for market manipulation. But it seems the big players can do this without any consequence.




The 1 share is probably the remainder of an incomplete sale - I doubt the trader placed a sell of 1 share. I know the minimum trade in Comsec is $500

If I have 1000 LNC shares on sale and somebody buys 999 then I have 1 left in the market.


----------



## ColB

Originally posted by Dealer....







> "...Tell me your worries about this share and its price in 3 years.
> Just stop selling to the big players at crap prices and then they have to offer higher prices to share holder for a slice of the action. They aren't getting mine for 5 years and even then LNC may be a dividend payer! Work out the P/E if you paid $3.20 today and the SP gets to $15 in the next 3 years and pays 5% fully franked. It's p/e is 4. Bargain if you can hold off for dividend paying years. I'm sure the fund managers can. Can you..."




Yeah, good post Dealer!  It's good to hear someone postive, and I do have faith in the long term for LNC I just hate being in the red at the moment when I was up substantially a couple of weeks ago hanging on for the liquids announcement before I took some off the table. (didn't get the chance)

It's very easy to be pessimistic at the moment and with good reason in many cases.  It's funny how some see the fund managers are responsible for the sp's decline.  Are these the same fund managers that recently purchased $25 million worth of shares after the bell at $5 when it had closed at around $4.50?

Can't help but think this won't consolidate until the Xinwan deal is assured.  Should be an interesting month or so!


----------



## woltage

Not being negative, just wanting to point out that Linc's success is not assured. And i'm well aware that there are counter points to what i've mentioned below

- Pending recession (and from what I've read its going to be a whopper) will result in reduction in demand for oil.
- Linc are claiming (from memory) they can produce one barrel of clean diesel for $28. Oil was last at this price a mere 4 years ago
- Don't write off biofuels just yet: http://www.ls9.com/
- This amazed me: As much solar energy strikes the earth each day as there is energy in all of earth's estimated coal reserves. Another plus for biofuels and electric cars

Best of luck


----------



## basilio

> _- Pending recession (and from what I've read its going to be a whopper) will result in reduction in demand for oil.
> - Linc are claiming (from memory) they can produce one barrel of clean diesel for $28. Oil was last at this price a mere 4 years ago
> - Don't write off biofuels just yet: http://www.ls9.com/_




Good post woltage.  However there is  a significant upside from the recession and reduced  demand for oil. 

Non renewable oil supplies are depleting rapidly. But if there is a slump in oil demand  and therefore oil price for a couple of years there should be a drop in the cost of establishment of the proposed Chincilla engineering  complex. One of the issues facing industry has been the rapidly rising costs of construction as energy prices, steel prices jumped. With a bit of luck Linc will have a cheapish development window over the  next 2-3 years.

However oil prices will rise  steeply in the medium term as natural oil fields deplete.,

The post on biofuels was interesting.  Totally agree that natural renewable energy sources are the best solution to the overall problem. Until now the biofuels solution has been a net drain on the environment (more energy cost than return) and a disaster for people actually wanting to eat. Still not sure if the proposed  solution will unlock more energy than current systems.  The process also seems to require  enormous amounts of  material input. The simple fact is that any oil is just converted sunlight.  Conventional crude oil is highly concentrated, coal is less concentrated while wood chips  et al are  very low energy density. Good article in Times Online which examines this technology in more detail.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4133668.ece


----------



## joestjack

I find it hard to see that LS9 technology taking off on a commercial scale.

As the article says, to satisfy America's oil demand alone it would need a plant roughtly the size of Chicago.

While that's definitely possible, the price of real estate and the mammoth cost of building a kind of plant like that just doesn't add up to me.

Perhaps it could be good for them to breed the bugs and sell them to people to make their own fuel in their backyard?

A friend of mine is making his own bio-diesel.


----------



## cruise61

Ruincity said:


> Announcement out:
> 
> XINWEN RECONFIRMS PROGRESS ON PURCHASE OF EMERALD “TERESA” COAL TENEMENTS
> Following meetings this week with the Xinwen Mining Group Ltd of China (“Xinwen”) in Beijing, Linc Energy (ASX : LNC) confirms that the Xinwen Board has approved the purchase of Linc Energy’s Emerald “Teresa” coal tenements. This approval follows successful completion of the due diligence process.
> Further, the companies have agreed to an extension of the Heads of Agreement prior to the completion of AU$1.5 billion transaction whilst Xinwen obtain Chinese regulatory approval to enter into the formal contract.
> Linc Energy also confirms that throughout the due diligence period and during this extension period, the Company’s drilling program on the Emerald “Teresa” tenements is continuing so as to further define and expand the coal deposit. (Please refer to the attached photographs of drilling activities at Emerald)
> For further information about the sale of the Emerald “Teresa” coal tenements, please contact Peter Bond.




Are you serious??

On 15th senior official from Xinwen says nothing is set.

On 16th Peter Bond says there is??

If your smart you will listen to the man with the money not the man without the money waiting.

My view is ,dont throw money into an empty pot because someone says it will grow, wait till the person whos gonna fill the pot does.

Goodluck


----------



## basilio

Well Linc is not looking that flash today. Down to 3.10 in what is an otherwise rising market.

By the way is the pilot plant actually producing diesel fuel? Came across an interesting comment on another site which pointed out the release talked about "liquids" . The release then showed a picture with a car next to a Linc bowser which is there to suggest the fuels are able to go straight into a car.

But perhaps the plant is still one or more steps away from coal to car ?

Having a dynamic, driven CEO like Peter Bond does keep up the excitement and the share price. But there also needs to be an honest reality behind the story.


----------



## Pigsy

On a day where everything couldn't help but rise, LNC is 5% down and touched $3.00. Lucky it just didn't tank from there as there's a lot of vultures hanging around at that price. Has LNC run out of puff?


----------



## korrupt_1

LNC's poor performance could be because oil prices are going down and the expectation that it could hit $50/barrel in a few months. Not so good if it costs $28 to produce from coal.

I sold out half of my holdings in LNC a few days ago... looking to buy some back tentatively if and when it gets back to support at around $2.50


----------



## basilio

LINC's oil market is in 3 years time.  The current collapse in oil prices is the unwinding of much speculation and the crunch of a collapsing world economy. But oil is running out rapidly and in a very short period of time falling supply will meet lower demand. But then the supply will still fall while demand tries to rise...

Linc could have an excellent window of opportunity to develop its infrastructure more cheaply in the last stages of this crunch. I think the concern of the market is the dragging out of the Xinwen coal purchase and perhaps queries on the exact nature of the liquids coming out of Chincilla.


----------



## bloubul

basilio said:


> LINC's oil market is in 3 years time.  The current collapse in oil prices is the unwinding of much speculation and the crunch of a collapsing world economy. But oil is running out rapidly and in a very short period of time falling supply will meet lower demand. But then the supply will still fall while demand tries to rise...
> 
> Linc could have an excellent window of opportunity to develop its infrastructure more cheaply in the last stages of this crunch. I think the concern of the market is the dragging out of the Xinwen coal purchase and perhaps queries on the exact nature of the liquids coming out of Chincilla.




I agree with your first comment re Linc's market in 3 years time.

There's been a few comment now made re the nature of liquids produced at Chinchilla. The main objective was to get liquids produced and over the next 3 months or so get the catlyst reaction fine-tuned as to maximize the quality of the liquids. One must keep in mind this is the "proto-type" for the commercial plant and I would be more concerned in 3-4 months time if results of ongoing tests are not released to the market. Patience is the key here... LNC has only started producing liquids 2 weeks ago.

Cheers


----------



## basilio

> There's been a few comment now made re the nature of liquids produced at Chinchilla. The main objective was to get liquids produced and over the next 3 months or so get the catlyst reaction fine-tuned as to maximize the quality of the liquids. One must keep in mind this is the "proto-type" for the commercial plant and I would be more concerned in 3-4 months time if results of ongoing tests are not released to the market. Patience is the key here... LNC has only started producing liquids 2 weeks ago




Very good point bloubel.  As you say makes perfect sense given the prototype nature of plant.

I'd say this has been overlooked in the presentation of the plants progress. I suppose we all want to see everything  now and clear where the reality is that new production processes have to be refined as a matter of course.


----------



## Mickel

korrupt_1 said:


> LNC's poor performance could be because oil prices are going down and the expectation that it could hit $50/barrel in a few months. Not so good if it costs $28 to produce from coal.
> 
> I sold out half of my holdings in LNC a few days ago... looking to buy some back tentatively if and when it gets back to support at around $2.50




Oil prices are still falling- down to USD $65pb- so you may get your chance to buy back in Korrupt. LNC currently around $2.56 after low earlier today of $2.52.

The s/p is becoming very attractive to die hard supporters. I am considering buying more myself.


----------



## ca1987

Very unerving (i think that is the correct word) though.

you would be cheering if you day traded all the way up to $5, can just start from scratch now!


----------



## Tweaksta

$2.25 - wow great price to buy.....but a little bit disturbing for those who bought in at $4 or more (like me perhaps!)

Getting smashed today - aaarghhhhh!

It's such a mental battle at the moment. Sometimes I feel like capitulating. Must stay strong.
Must stay strong.
Must stay strong.
Must stay strong.
Must stay strong.


----------



## cruise61

Tweaksta said:


> $2.25 - wow great price to buy.....but a little bit disturbing for those who bought in at $4 or more (like me perhaps!)
> 
> Getting smashed today - aaarghhhhh!
> 
> It's such a mental battle at the moment. Sometimes I feel like capitulating. Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.




And still i dont think its the bottom for today

maybe 2.15 lets see will be an interesting day for all shares


----------



## joestjack

cruise61 said:


> And still i dont think its the bottom for today
> 
> maybe 2.15 lets see will be an interesting day for all shares




At these prices, surely common sense has to prevail and see people buying up.

If I had spare cash I know I would.

It's amazing that it built up to over $5 in anticpation of liquids production, and now they've done that it's done almost nothing but fall.


----------



## Pigsy

Tweaksta said:


> $2.25 - wow great price to buy.....but a little bit disturbing for those who bought in at $4 or more (like me perhaps!)
> 
> Getting smashed today - aaarghhhhh!
> 
> It's such a mental battle at the moment. Sometimes I feel like capitulating. Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.
> Must stay strong.




Yep must stay strong!

Check out the market depth. There's a lot holding for higher prices in the $3.50+ range, and they're only the open orders we can see there'd have to be heaps more conditional orders on hold at those higher prices.

Remember the chooks fly the coop early in the day (selling) and come home to roost at night (buying). There's a lot of day traders looking for the quick buck in this market so I guess the volatility on LNC is going to remain.

Probably the worst thing for LNC was moving into the ASX200 now it has a much higher profile, it's easy pickings for the one day warriors. Guess we should be lucky there's no short selling currently as it might be hammered further.


----------



## korrupt_1

Pigsy said:


> Guess we should be lucky there's no short selling currently as it might be hammered further.




i don't think it would matter much.... shorters will HAVE TO BUY BACK eventually to square off their position. covering their shorts will cause LNC to go back up. It's all fun and games.


----------



## Miner

Where is Grace ?

She has put LNC in stock competition and got an overwhelming first prize win. What a lucky guess.

Would be interested to see comments from her (assuming the right gender) on LNC perspective


----------



## awg

apart from any other factor, one good reason Linc SP has been smashed is the obvious absence of any dividend payments in the near future.

in my portfolio at least, i have noticed the good div payers have fared much better than the small div payers, non div the worst


----------



## Glen48

When OIL gets to $50 a barrel what will LNC be worth then maybe a name change to Stink?
I am just watching my money go down the plug hole and could buy back in at about $1.50
Go a bit in ORG who seem to be holding...


----------



## grace

Miner said:


> Where is Grace ?
> 
> She has put LNC in stock competition and got an overwhelming first prize win. What a lucky guess.
> 
> Would be interested to see comments from her (assuming the right gender) on LNC perspective




Gender correct Miner (not many females on this forum, but I am certainly one of them).

Chart not looking flash at all.  Broke through significant resistance there at $3 I thought.  I free carried my Linc holding a little while ago, but it still hurts nonetheless.

I've been a believer for a long time, and still am.

Mexican is full of good advice by the way.  How are you going Mexican?  Still hanging in there?


----------



## mexican

Yes Grace still here.
Just waiting for that smoke screen to clear. Pretty thick at the moment!
Another week and we should know if the China deal goes through. That should get the ball rolling again.
If they pull out................hang on to your hat!


----------



## basilio

Another perspective.

It is disheartening to see our "beloved' Linc fall more  50% from its heights.  Then I look at the rest of the market and see far larger percentage falls in companies that  are already  producing excellent great value resources, are giving a  current dividend AND making announcements on  resource finds that at any other time would see the stock soar.

For instance  KZl (Kagara) has dropped from $6.90 to $1.01 this year, is yielding 11% and has just announced some great Nickel discoveries.

The current market situation is unlike anything we have seen in living memory. The destruction of trillions of dollars of value in paper transactions has attacked the foundations of the real economy - physical resources, worthwhile goods and services. And most clear eyed analysts would say the damage has just begun. 

Hopefully Linc is one of the real companies that does survive and prosper  because it's product is so fundamentally essential to our  survival.


----------



## Glen48

If share prices fall say LNC to 50C  BHP $5.00 what happens to the company their working capital must take a hit and they have to fold?


----------



## oldblue

Glen48 said:


> If share prices fall say LNC to 50C  BHP $5.00 what happens to the company their working capital must take a hit and they have to fold?




A fall in the share price of its own accord doesn't affect a company's solvency unless/until it needs to raise new capital or unless there is some covenant in their borrowing terms that requires the maintaining of a certain market capitalisation.
Not good for the investors of course but " working capital " is not dependent on the SP.


----------



## Goldmann

oldblue said:


> A fall in the share price of its own accord doesn't affect a company's solvency unless/until it needs to raise new capital or unless there is some covenant in their borrowing terms that requires the maintaining of a certain market capitalisation.
> Not good for the investors of course but " working capital " is not dependent on the SP.





Like Eddie Groves where he owned 30% of the company's stock through margin loans, hence when it fell, it jack-knifed  -due to the convenants in place...

I see Peter bond as a true believer - someone who has the vision and enthusiasm to sort this out... plus the Coal tenements - whether they are worth 1.5 bill or even half that will mean the company has a fair bit of workign capital...

the share raising at 2.90 is starting to look expensive now - how many readers that whinged about it at the time would take up that offer now - another P BOND move at the right time to secure the capital he needed to get the company over the hump (until the tenement cash is in the bank).

its not like long term demand for oil/diesel is not sustained... and here is a cost effective option to get this going with less harm to the enviro.. clean energy (well cleaner that most!)


----------



## Santoro

Was thinking about Linc and the Xinwen tenement purchase. I wondered whether Xinwen would still see this as a good acquisition or not. IMO initially I thought they would be mad to go through with it, but if you factor in the aussie dollar which is currently .62, this offer came through when the aussie was still strong....so I am assuming the purchase is in Australian dollars, the deal is 30-40% cheaper from a chinese point of view.....so for the chinese this may look more attractive then previously thought...how much lower will the market go, hence resource prices etc......you can bet that china will start resource acquisitions? 
IMO looking at the trend of the XAO we could certainly drop to 3200 with all the great news out there, probably exceptional value when investors look back in a few years.....


----------



## ROE

basilio said:


> Another perspective.
> 
> It is disheartening to see our "beloved' Linc fall more  50% from its heights.  Then I look at the rest of the market and see far larger percentage falls in companies that  are already  producing excellent great value resources, are giving a  current dividend AND making announcements on  resource finds that at any other time would see the stock soar.
> 
> For instance  KZl (Kagara) has dropped from $6.90 to $1.01 this year, is yielding 11% and has just announced some great Nickel discoveries.
> 
> The current market situation is unlike anything we have seen in living memory. The destruction of trillions of dollars of value in paper transactions has attacked the foundations of the real economy - physical resources, worthwhile goods and services. And most clear eyed analysts would say the damage has just begun.
> 
> Hopefully Linc is one of the real companies that does survive and prosper  because it's product is so fundamentally essential to our  survival.




When the value of the most stock fuel by debt (i'm not attacking this stock but any stock in particular but generally) , both personal and corporate then there comes a point in time when that debt need to be taken off, and that time is now then everything will plummet.

I cant understand why people asking stocking was $10 now $1, do they realize that $10 stock maybe all but speculative debt money similar to
people buy house just for capital gain and disregard yield.

This sort of scheme need a continuous pipe of debt that keep growing every day and that is CLEARLY unsustainable. It's simple economic

Now this sort of scheme I don't follow but it benefit the people who use these scheme to their advantage and the people who use it efficiently is Warrenn Buffett. Let debt and speculation drive the stock to historic high while you hoarding cash...down comes the crash, everyone

1. Panic sell out at a lost
2. Force to sell because of their debt level and margin call
3. Meanwhile a list of extremely good stocks sits on the watch list
4. Fear feed on fear for a while drive stock even lower and lower each  week
5. Time to buy wonderful company at a fair price or even way below its intrinsic value


----------



## noirua

Hi all, This link will take you to a chart showing the history of the Aussie versus the Yuan:  http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/CNY/AUD/G/90


----------



## Santoro

noirua said:


> Hi all, This link will take you to a chart showing the history of the Aussie versus the Yuan:  http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/CNY/AUD/G/90




Thanks Noira.

The chinese yuan has strengthened from 5.70 to 4.25 in the time since the deal was announced (to 1 AUD), about 25% drop for the aussie. Xinwen still think this is a good deal?

Disclosure: DO NOT HOLD


----------



## gav

What the hell happened to LNC today?  At one point this morning it was down 15%.  When I finished work it was down 10%.  I get back from the gym to see it closed exactly where it finished Friday!


----------



## Glen48

I got out and loss some more... when oil gets to $30 a can there is not much hope for some one like LNC but I would look at buying back in again at 50C...maybe


----------



## Mickel

Glen48 said:


> I got out and loss some more... when oil gets to $30 a can there is not much hope for some one like LNC but I would look at buying back in again at 50C...maybe




Good luck trying to get back in at 50c, Glen. I topped up at $2.00 before they dropped down to $1.88 (only about 1000 sold at this price) and was very happy to see them finish back up to last Friday's closing price with total volume of 1.8m .

With OPEC intent on keeping demand and supply in balance, (currently reducing supply by 1.5m bpd), it would seem hard to have the oil price below USD50 for any extended period of time.

Hopefully, many investors with a medium to long term outlook, will see the current share price as very attractive.


----------



## joestjack

What's happening today??

SP up 15% (XAO down 0.8%) on really high volume.

Could this be some funds buying in?? Kind of seems like a bit more than normal market fluctuations.


----------



## Mickel

joestjack said:


> What's happening today??
> 
> SP up 15% (XAO down 0.8%) on really high volume.
> 
> Could this be some funds buying in?? Kind of seems like a bit more than normal market fluctuations.




There is an announcement this morning at 10.39 regarding the Linc Chairman, Brian Johnson, selling 1m shares from his company TransPacific Capital P/L over the last 5 days for tax reasons.

Perhaps some shareholders heard that a director of the company was selling and decided to get out at any price. SP did rise to $2.68 earlier but has now dropped back to $2.50 (up 9.65%) on volume of 2.8m.


----------



## Mickel

S&P/ASX 200 currently down 0.6% but LNC up 7% to $2.98 after a high of $3.17 earlier today. This follows 3 days of rises for LNC and hopefully the dark days of the S/P falling more than the S&P/ASX 200 index are gone.

Was it all because of the Chairman selling 1m shares ?


----------



## Glen48

I am watching trying to work out if to sell and buy back after a drop BUT....the next thing in this madness Night won't follow day any more it is that erratic


----------



## Glen48

It appears some company has developed a better tail pipe which filters the last of the pollutions in Diesel fumes and making Diesel car the most envio. friendly and most economical  even beating the Toyota Pirus.
So if OIL goes up LNC are on a winner


----------



## grace

Anyone watch stateline on the ABC last night?  A whole section on burning coal to produce syngas.

Those interviewed were Cougar, Carbon then Linc (saying Linc was the big one).  Also, discussion about coexisting with csg, or otherwise.

Also on the ABC southern Qld radio news this morning.


----------



## Calliope

Grace, I have just read the  Stateline transcript on UCG interviews. As usual the woman from the Australian Conservation Foundation, Monica Richter is dead against it. The Qld Energy Minister Geoff Wilson won't give an opinion for fear of upsetting the Greens. The bloke from Origin is also against it. He thinks it is still experimental, and not proven technology.

These reactions  haven't changed over time. All the other participants were supportive and optimistic. It is mainly an ideological divide.


----------



## grace

Calliope said:


> Grace, I have just read the  Stateline transcript on UCG interviews. As usual the woman from the Australian Conservation Foundation, Monica Richter is dead against it. The Qld Energy Minister Geoff Wilson won't give an opinion for fear of upsetting the Greens. The bloke from Origin is also against it. He thinks it is still experimental, and not proven technology.
> 
> These reactions  haven't changed over time. All the other participants were supportive and optimistic. It is mainly an ideological divide.




Yes.  Anna needs those green votes.  I was speaking to her opposition not so long ago about this.  She needs to think of Qld first.  Investment will go elsewhere if they think Qld is a risk.  It is already happening.

Here is the Linc (oops Link).

http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/qld/content/2006/s2407230.htm


----------



## eric35

As far as I can see, LNC has a great future. I traded LNC a number ot times now, always for a profit. I believe now is the time to get into LNC again, looking at the chart below.



The sp has just moved above the 30 week ema again, I for one will enter on Monday

Regards


----------



## ColB

Originally posted by *Eric*


> As far as I can see, LNC has a great future. I traded LNC a number ot times now, always for a profit. I believe now is the time to get into LNC again, looking at the chart below.
> 
> The sp has just moved above the 30 week ema again, I for one will enter on Monday




No disrespect Eric, but why would you wait until Monday to buy LNC when you could have bought a week or so ago for $2 and have made almost 50% on last Fridays close.  Anyway I'm glad to hear you've made money along the way.  I was sitting on a $200k paper profit when they hit $5 and now waiting for it to recover.  I have faith in the medium to long term prospects for this company though and I hope the recent Stateline show propels the SP far enough for me to get off the valium!!


----------



## Reealjrd

The dollar is getting worse and YEN is becoming good. Dollar will take time to come up as the economic conditions of the US gets better. As we can see that the INR is getting better versus the Dollar and in the Asian market the market of Dollar is getting week.


----------



## eric35

The reason why I want to wait is because I never buy a share without confirmation that they are actualy on the way up. And I do like them to be above the 30 week EMA.

In this volatile market, ther are too many times that we could get burned. Yes, I could have made 50% or whatever profit, but is not hindsight a beautiful thing?

We shall see what Monday brings.

Happy Trading


----------



## Calliope

Reealjrd said:


> The dollar is getting worse and YEN is becoming good. Dollar will take time to come up as the economic conditions of the US gets better. As we can see that the INR is getting better versus the Dollar and in the Asian market the market of Dollar is getting week.




Obviously you are trying to tell us something.  Did you post on the wrong thread? What is the relevance of this to Linc?


----------



## Linzzap

From ABC website

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/01/2407611.htm?section=business

Moratorium on coal-seam gas proposed

The Queensland Government is being urged to put a temporary halt to exploration of coal-seam gas conversion.

At least three companies in the Surat Basin - involved in converting coal underground into gas - are hoping to get production leases.

Monica Richter from the Australian Conservation Foundation told Stateline the technology is still too unknown for production to go ahead.

"Well just as the Queensland Government put a moratorium on the oil shale development industry of 20 years, I think a moratorium should be put on the development of coal to liquid, underground gasification," he said.

"All of these technologies that are not necessarily yet proven, that do have a horrendous green house impact."

Paul Zealand from Origin Energy says a total moratorium would be unwise.

"I've got nothing against underground coal gasification I just don't understand it yet, I don't think the state understands it yet," he said.

"It's got a lot of development to do. But we shouldn't sterilize a large areas of what are some of the best coal seam prospects in the world for future experiments. We should contain that to a relatively small area."

Linc Energy says the process can be environmentally sustainable.

Spokesman Stephan Dumble says his company is working towards a plant at Chinchilla that will convert underground coal into 20,000 barrels of liquid fuel a day.

Energy Minister Geoff Wilson says the Government is doing a lot of work examining how underground coal gasification companies might affect the profitable coal-seam gas sector.

"Once the coal seam is burnt underground then the coal seam gas embedded in it is also burnt," he said.

"So the challenge for both sectors of the coal industry is to work out an acceptable way for both sectors to be able to co-exist."


----------



## Linzzap

Now here is the transcript from the QLD Stateline show:

http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/qld/content/2006/s2407230.htm

JOHN TAYLOR: Mining in Queensland is big business, and this week it got a little bigger. British gas company B-G group announced a friendly takeover bid for QQueensland gas company valuing the company at more than $5.5 billion. It's big money, especially since coal seam gas wasn't really on the mining radar in Queensland a decade ago. Now there's another group of companies coming forward that want to do something else new with coal - convert coal underground into gas. And not everyone is happy.

(JOHN REPORTS ON COAL GASIFICATION)
JOHN TAYLOR: In Queensland, coal is king. Digging it, burning it, selling it coal is worth billions and underpins the economy. But there is some new players emerging who want to use is coal in a different way converting coal into gas underground.

DR LEN WALKER, COUGAR ENERGY: We have the capability of using coal that's not useful for any other purpose underground to produce what I would call industrial gas.

MONICA RICHTER, AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATION FOUNDATION: Well if Australia's going to deal seriously with the twin issues of climate change and Australia's oil vulnerability this is definitely not the way to go.

GEOFF WILSON, ENERGY MINISTER: It is important that we don't pick winners with technology that's not for Government.

JOHN TAYLOR: In Queensland's Surat Basin, the three major companies have pilot programmes turning underground coal into gas. It works like this. Two holes are drilled into a coal seam. The coal is ignited at one end, and in a controlled conversion process a series of chemical reactions take place that produce a mixture of gas called "synthesis gas".

DR LEN WALKER: We have a coal source at Kingaroy where we've established 73 million tonnes of coal resource, and we have a defined program now over three to four years of establishing a pilot burn first, and then constructing a power station of 400 megawatts in two stages.

JOHN TAYLOR: Dr Len Walker is Australia's old man of underground coal gasification; a self described ageing entrepreneur. For 25 years he's advocated that UCG as it's known makes sense in Australia.

DR LEN WALKER: It started off in the former Soviet Union because Lenin and Stalin considered there was a means of getting coal that was deep without sending miners underground. So it was a good socialist objective. Well it's a good humanistic objective nowadays to do the same thing and look it at it the same way.

JOHN TAYLOR: In Brisbane's leafy west lies the headquarters of another UCG player Carbon Energy. It makes much of its links to Australia's national science agency, the CSIRO.

ANDREW DASH CARBON ENERGY: We believe it's very important. Our entire approach to this technology, how we target our sites and how we efficiently bring the energy to the surface has been born out of 10 years of scientific research; it's the most thorough development of this type of technology in the world.

JOHN TAYLOR: Carbon Energy wants to produce gas for power generation, and to make chemicals for agriculture and mining.

ANDREW DASH: A very major facility with a capital cost of over a billion dollars, generating over $30B worth of revenue over its 30 year lifetime.

JOHN TAYLOR: The largest player in the paddock however is Linc Energy, which has already spent $50M on its project at Chinchilla.

STEPHEN DUMBLE, LINC ENERGY: We're now moving on with the development of our first commercial operation which will be a 20,000 barrel a day commercial plant again at Chinchilla, producing clean liquid transport fuels from coal that's gasified underground.

JOHN TAYLOR: Last month it produced its first liquid fuel.

STEPHEN DUMBLE: Very significant for our business and also very significant for Queensland. This is a world first for Queensland.

JOHN TAYLOR: And with Australia's reliance on foreign petroleum only dramatically rising, the company believes there's a ready market.

STEPHEN DUMBLE: At 20,000 barrels a day we'll produce enough diesel to satisfy about half of Queensland's current diesel consumption.

JOHN TAYLOR: While Linc Energy dreams of a Queensland Middle East, others are worried.

MONICA RICHTER: Well just as the Queensland Government put a moratorium on the oil shale development industry of 20 years I think a moratorium should be put on the development of coal to liquid, underground gasification, all of these technologies that are not necessarily yet proven, that do have a horrendous green house impact.

JOHN TAYLOR: Monica Richter from the Australian Conservation Foundation says a new way using old coal is not the future.

MONICA RICHTER: We really need to be moving away from our reliance on coal as part of our strong economy and looking at what the 21st century technologies of clean green technologies need to be invested in.

JOHN TAYLOR: In the farming country of the Surat basin there are also concerns about subsidence, the water table chemical residues, and carbon emissions.

GEOFF WILSON: Well I bring an open mind to this question. One of the concerns that legitimately raised is around the environmental impact of this technology and I think people fairly recognise that it is technology that is unproven in the Australian setting.

JOHN TAYLOR: The operators say don’t be afraid.

ANDREW DASH: We very much refute those elements; the key focus of the CSIRO's work has been around environmental performance, around safety and efficient extraction of coal.

DR LEN WALKER: To say that you shouldn't use UCG here because you might damage the groundwater, is equivalent to saying you shouldn't mine underground because you might kill people.

JOHN TAYLOR: Another question UCG players face is can they co-exist with the Coal Seam Gas industry a proven and multibillion dollar part of Queensland's energy scene.

GEOFF WILSON: Once the coal seam is burnt underground then the coal seam gas embedded in it is also burnt. So the challenge for both sectors of the coal industry is to work out an acceptable way for both industries to be able to coexist.

DR LEN WALKER: Well I can't say whether they hate our guts or not. I've met and I know a number of them and I know one or two of them who are extremely co-operative.

JOHN TAYLOR: Paul Zealand is from Origin Energy, which is involved in coal seam gas.

PAUL ZEALAND, ORIGIN ENERGY: I've got nothing against Underground coal gasification I just don't understand it yet, I don't think the State understands it yet. It's got a lot of development to do. But we shouldn't sterilize a large area of what are some of the best coal seam prospects in the world for future experiments. We should contain that to a relatively small area.

JOHN TAYLOR: There is court case at the moment over a tenure dispute but the UCG companies believe there's enough room for everyone.

STEPHEN DUMBLE, LINC ENERGY: The amount of coal reserves that exist in this State are very significant you know several hundred billion tonnes of coal. So there is more than enough room for all of these industries to coexist and in fact play useful parts in the economic prosperity of the State.

PAUL ZEALAND: Let’s not threaten the fantastic opportunity that we've got ahead of us with an experimental technology which is yet to be proven which we know has got a high carbon footprint compared to coal seam gas which is a low carbon technology.

ANDREW DASH: The Surat Basin is ideal for underground coal gasification; it has some of the best coal in the world for our process.

JOHN TAYLOR: The State Government is examining if the industries can co-exist, and Cabinet is expected to look at the evidence soon. But few it seems are expecting the Government to completely rule out this emerging part of Queensland's energy industry.

ANDREW DASH: In due course we will be applying for that production licence and would anticipate that that would be granted in due course.

DR LEN WALKER: In terms of the outcomes and the simplicity of the whole process it's extremely interesting and very attractive and I think there's no doubt that it will have a long term future.


----------



## Goldmann

JOHN TAYLOR: The State Government is examining if the industries can co-exist, and Cabinet is expected to look at the evidence soon. But few it seems are expecting the Government to completely rule out this emerging part of Queensland's energy industry.

--------------------------------------------

Ole Monica rattlin the cage again... Maybe the "conversation" foundation should actually show how much land and money it would take for low carbon energy production like a wind farm that would need to be the size of NT it would take to do what LNC are potentially doing from Chinchilla... 

I guess one thing it clears up is that the big energy players wouldnt be looking at buying into our little UCG pioneers anytime soon...


----------



## Mickel

In Time magazine dated 3 Nov 2008 on page 23 Time's Joe Klein reported an interview with Barack Obama- "ON KICK-STARTING THE ECONOMY: Finding the new driver of our economy is going to be critical. There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy... That's going to be my No. 1 priority when I get into office, assuming obviously that we have done enough to just stabilize the immediate economic situation. We've got a boat with a lot of leaks, and we need to get it into port. That's what the financial rescue package is about. But once we get it into port, once the credit markets are functioning effectively, then it's time for us to go back to the fundamentals of this economy."

Previously in the article, Obama is quoted as saying the turbo charger of the economy for the last 20 years was consumer spending based on cheap credit but that  will not be there for the next 20 years "because there is too much deleveraging taking place, too much debt." A new economic turbocharger is going to have to be found, and "there is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy."

Well, the US imports billions of barrels of oil to drive it's transport, racking up hundreds of billions $ debt in their balance of payments. However, they have billions of tons of coal (much of it currently unavailable because it can't be mined economically). 

WHEN Barack is elected one P Bond will come riding to the USA's rescue with LINC's UCG and GTL processes and I think they will welcome him with open arms, mining licences on a platter, and fists full of $$$.

If Anna listens to the Greens more than the facts, she may regret that she isn't standing next to P Bond in 3 years time, as he gets worldwide attention opening a GTL plant producing 50,000 (or 100,000) bpd of diesel with US President Barack Obama cutting the ribbon.


----------



## eric35

well, as we have seen many times before, most of our good inventions and developments go overseas because our government and/or our venture capitalists can't see the benefit of supporting them. Will LNC be a casualty? I hope not!


----------



## ColB

Eric said:


> well, as we have seen many times before, most of our good inventions and developments go overseas because our government and/or our venture capitalists can't see the benefit of supporting them. Will LNC be a casualty? I hope not!




Thursday 06 November 2008 - Australia joins with India to promote coal sector. 

AUSTRALIA and India have entered agreements to boost trade and investment in the coal sector. 

The "Action Plan for Indo-Australian Collaboration” focuses on mining techniques and services, *coal to liquid projects* and coal-bed methane operations. 

According to an official statement, the main objective of the plan is to enhance opportunities in two-way trade and investments and increase bilateral cooperation in the sector. 

The agreement will see the both governments focus on underground coal mining, gasification and methane technologies, as well as training and capacity building."  Source:  www.miningcoal.com.au

'It'll happen one day Eric!  Sooner the better as LNC is looking very sad in the SP!


----------



## eric35

Col, I still did not get in, but am watching very closely for a turn.

Your post is very interesting.


----------



## mjp

Just let the competing technologies bid against each other for mining licenses, don't need any politicos trying to sort it out


----------



## basilio

No doubt all shareholders have received the latest Linc newsletter. It is certainly different from traditional  shareholder information and  (naturally) paints a very positive picture of  the future of the company. What are your thoughts about it?


----------



## Calliope

basilio said:


> No doubt all shareholders have received the latest Linc newsletter. It is certainly different from traditional  shareholder information and  (naturally) paints a very positive picture of  the future of the company. What are your thoughts about it?




This type of glossy expensive newsletter always paints a rosy picture. Unfortunately they never tell the diligent shareholder anything he doesn't already know. A one-line email telling us the China deal is sealed would be more encouraging.


----------



## eric35

I don't really like these sort of small caps companies who put out big glossy, expensive publications. Shows the are not vey frugal with their money.


----------



## Redwings

Calliope said:


> This type of glossy expensive newsletter always paints a rosy picture. Unfortunately they never tell the diligent shareholder anything he doesn't already know. A one-line email telling us the China deal is sealed would be more encouraging.





Totally agree. I didn't think it was necessary. 

Surprised oil has dropped so much. Anyone thinks that in the coming months, the winter in the northern hemp will see demand for oil raise again? 

Cheers


----------



## Glen48

I got a news letter from LNC and I sold my shares about 2 weeks ago, must cost them a fortune in this climate with us buying and sell and them having to send out paperwork.


----------



## bloubul

Glen48 said:


> I got a news letter from LNC and I sold my shares about 2 weeks ago, must cost them a fortune in this climate with us buying and sell and them having to send out paperwork.




Maybe Linc knows they have a 100% certainty of the $1.5b sale that could be weeks away from closing... small change creating those glossy flyers.


----------



## mhar9655

What is happening today?  Not that I'm complaining or anything, up 10% when the market is down 4%, with no news released....


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> No doubt all shareholders have received the latest Linc newsletter. It is certainly different from traditional  shareholder information and  (naturally) paints a very positive picture of  the future of the company. What are your thoughts about it?




The newsletter lists details for shareholders to attend a site tour before the AGM. Registrations close today. Also, on the same page, it lists events/conferences that Linc has been invited to as a guest speaker in Singapore, San Francisco, London and Sydney.

The first item gives shareholders a great opportunity to see and hear the latest about Linc. The second will undoubtedly spread the word internationally about Linc's story and achievements.

And who knows, perhaps there will be a positive announcement at the AGM on the 27 Nov?

Currently the S&P/ASX 200 index is down 4.5% while LNC is up 4.1% to $2.79. Perhaps existing shareholders are buoyed by the upbeat newsletter and are buying more at a reasonable price.

Disclosure- I am a shareholder.


----------



## Goldmann

Redwings said:


> Totally agree. I didn't think it was necessary.
> 
> Surprised oil has dropped so much. Anyone thinks that in the coming months, the winter in the northern hemp will see demand for oil raise again?
> 
> Cheers




Geez, people whinge if the company dont keep you informed, then you whinge when they actually do.

This newsletter would of been designed and paid for long before things got as bad as they did... and by the way - the Coal sale and first liquids is big news and they have a right to celebrate with these kind of mail... dont you guys remember not long ago LNC was trading around $5!  

I got many share holder newsletters and annual reports in the past 3 or so weeks, and LNC along with AJL demonstrate professionalism and unwavering faith in their operations and long term prospects through releasing quality media.

Perhaps you guys are starting to get depressed with all the bad news floating around lately.


----------



## Redwings

Goldmann said:


> Geez, people whinge if the company dont keep you informed, then you whinge when they actually do.
> 
> This newsletter would of been designed and paid for long before things got as bad as they did... and by the way - the Coal sale and first liquids is big news and they have a right to celebrate with these kind of mail... dont you guys remember not long ago LNC was trading around $5!
> 
> I got many share holder newsletters and annual reports in the past 3 or so weeks, and LNC along with AJL demonstrate professionalism and unwavering faith in their operations and long term prospects through releasing quality media.
> 
> Perhaps you guys are starting to get depressed with all the bad news floating around lately.





Think the point was not about not being informed or being informed,  rather the way the information was distributed. Think a nice HTML email would have been good enough.


----------



## Mickel

From ann 13/11-

Mr Peter Bond, Chief Executive Officer of Linc Energy Limited (ASX:LNC), has
advised that Newtron Pty Ltd, a company owned by Mr Bond, has over the past few days sold 151,000 of its shares in Linc Energy at a price of approximately $3.02.

Mr Bond said that the shares were sold primarily to meet separate business and family obligations. These are the first shares sold by Mr Bond's company since Linc Energy listed in 2006 and represent only a small percentage of the total holding of over 201 million Ordinary Linc Energy shares currently held by Newtron Pty Ltd.

Mr Bond is very confident that Linc Energy will finalise the sale of its coking coal deposit at Emerald in the Bowen Basin in the very near future, and stated that he is more excited than ever about the long term future of Linc Energy.

Perhaps this is why LNC's s/p dropped away yesterday afternoon after being in the green for most of the trading day.

S/P currently up 21c to $2.82 today.


----------



## Mickel

Perhaps in my last posting I should have listed the complete ann. Here it is-

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT / MEDIA RELEASE

13 November 2008

CHANGE IN DIRECTOR'S INTEREST

Mr Peter Bond, Chief Executive Officer of Linc Energy Limited (ASX:LNC), has
advised that Newtron Pty Ltd, a company owned by Mr Bond, has over the past few
days sold 151,000 of its shares in Linc Energy at a price of approximately $3.02.

Mr Bond said that the shares were sold primarily to meet separate business and
family obligations. These are the first shares sold by Mr Bond's company since Linc
Energy listed in 2006 and represent only a small percentage of the total holding of
over 201 million Ordinary Linc Energy shares currently held by Newtron Pty Ltd.

Mr Bond is very confident that Linc Energy will finalise the sale of its coking coal
deposit at Emerald in the Bowen Basin in the very near future, and stated that he is
more excited than ever about the long term future of Linc Energy.

Mr Bond said "The future of Linc Energy is progressing extraordinarily well with UCG
successfully operating and liquids being produced at Chinchilla which in itself is a
world first. The world demand for what Linc Energy does is overwhelming. I'm a
long term holder and believer in Linc Energy and will remain so. 

The reality of life and family dictates a modest sale of shares from time to time to meet various issues
and costs. I will always sell at or over the market to ensure the general market in
Linc Energy scrip is not affected."

For further information please contact Peter Bond. 

Peter Bond
Chief Executive Officer


----------



## mexican

Sapex deposit looks to be a great asset for Linc.
Another smart business move by the Linc team!
IMO I think China will be the first commercial plant for Linc.
They will put 3000 Chinamen on the job and have the plant erected and firing in 12 months!


----------



## Calliope

mexican said:


> Sapex deposit looks to be a great asset for Linc.
> Another smart business move by the Linc team!
> IMO I think China will be the first commercial plant for Linc.
> They will put 3000 Chinamen on the job and have the plant erected and firing in 12 months!




You may be right. The political climate in this country does not look good for new enterprises involving coal. I heard the Green's spokesperson on energy, Senator Christine Milne raving on in the Senate the other day on the evils of GTL. She was speaking on the Fuel Watch bill, but she never misses an opportunity to rant about the environmental dangers of GTL.


----------



## Glen48

I got a glossy newsletter today from LNC ( I sold out a few weeks ago) telling me how they have "done it" BUT if oil is $55 a Barrel and looks like going down were does that leave LNC shares?


----------



## namrog

Another glossy newsletter today Glen 48, didn't you get one on the 12th aswell, what about the rest of us ???
You must have been a very big holder !!

What difference does it make right now that oil is around $55 per barrel, when linc won't be producing anything commercially for a few years, and do you know what the price will be by then ??
I'm guessing like the rest of us, you have absolutely no idea .!!!

In the meantime, lower energy costs, as well as possibly lower labour, material costs , because of the very fact that oil is cheap at the moment, and the reason it is so, is because of the big picture, don't you get it ??? will mean linc can develop it's plants in an accomodating environment.

As well as that, there is a theory that oil staying around $55 per barrel, will delay or at least discourage further exploration and development, when it will hardly be viable.

So do you or anyone seriously believe that oil is going to stay at these low levels for long ????, I certainly DON'T, and am currently dribble feeding into energy stocks, with a view to the future.

I reckon you're sorry you sold out and trying to get back in at a cheaper price, which you might or might not get, really LNC is no different than anything else in this environment, and  if the market tanks one more time, then linc will go with it , I'll be there with you mopping up if such a thing happens.


----------



## grace

namrog said:


> Another glossy newsletter today Glen 48, didn't you get one on the 12th aswell, what about the rest of us ???
> You must have been a very big holder !!
> 
> What difference does it make right now that oil is around $55 per barrel, when linc won't be producing anything commercially for a few years, and do you know what the price will be by then ??
> I'm guessing like the rest of us, you have absolutely no idea .!!!
> 
> In the meantime, lower energy costs, as well as possibly lower labour, material costs , because of the very fact that oil is cheap at the moment, and the reason it is so, is because of the big picture, don't you get it ??? will mean linc can develop it's plants in an accomodating environment.
> 
> As well as that, there is a theory that oil staying around $55 per barrel, will delay or at least discourage further exploration and development, when it will hardly be viable.
> 
> So do you or anyone seriously believe that oil is going to stay at these low levels for long ????, I certainly DON'T, and am currently dribble feeding into energy stocks, with a view to the future.
> 
> I reckon you're sorry you sold out and trying to get back in at a cheaper price, which you might or might not get, really LNC is no different than anything else in this environment, and  if the market tanks one more time, then linc will go with it , I'll be there with you mopping up if such a thing happens.




Hey namrog, that's post number 14!  I guess you are still at the top in the years comp with Linc.  Perhaps we will ban you from entering next year!

Agree about energy stocks.  Might be time to add to the holdings.

I suggest next upward move will be north of $150, but that's just my personal opinion.

Might be time to fill up the spare fuel tanks!


----------



## Glen48

Just sitting back  a few months ago before all this started LNC hit $5 and going up now who knows after GWB's comments today, how ever if they get to teen figures still worth a punt.


----------



## bloubul

More good news from Sapex tenements... looks like SynDiesel at Chinchilla and soon Oil in SA. Good plug by PB for the SA "pro-business" government... that should be a wake-up call for the QLD pro-greenies gov.

extract from today's ASX release...

LINC ENERGY RAMPS UP OIL EXPLORATION AT SAPEX
o Linc Energy commits to oil drilling program in Arckaringa Basin
Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC) announced today that it will commence drilling key oil
opportunities identified from the recent seismic program which shows at least 18 prospects
and leads with a priority target area of I drilling locations.
Linc Energy will commit to approximately 10 to 15 oil exploration wells in the Arckaringa
Basin, with an initial budget of $9 to $10 million. Linc Energy is in negotiations with a North
American drilling exploration company based out of Texas, with the aim that a drilling
contractor will be on site by second quarter next year to commence the program.
Whilst Linc Energy purchased the SAPEX assets for their coal potential and the added
benefits of completing a straight fonryard operation in an area of abundant coal which has
the ability to be moved along quickly in the Arckaringa Basin due to the flat accessible lands,
no overlapping tenement issues, great access to infrastructure such as rail and ports, and
an internationally recognised pro-business Government; the reality remains that the SAPEX
exploration licences hold some excellent petroleum opportunities which could potentially be
valued at a considerable sum of money (see attached map showing South Australian
exploration licences held). Either as a straight asset sale or as a profit share arrangement,
the bottom line for Linc Energy Shareholders is that such a valuable asset needs to be
developed to a point that the Company can start to 'book' some of that value to the balance
sheet, either as 'cash' or as a developed asset producing cash flow.
With that driving premise, Linc Energy will aim to commence drilling the Arckaringa Basin for
petroleum (oil) opportunities in the second quarter of next year, with the program taking
approximately 12 to 18 months to complete. Linc Energy should have some excellent early
indications of what the Arckaringa Basin is capable of producing by approximately early in
the fourth quarter next year (2009).
Mr Peter Bond, Linc Energy's Chief Executive Office said "We know we have a great asset
in what has been obtained via the SAPEX merger but the oil exploration was always
potentially a significant bonus for the Shareholders. I have no other way of unlocking that
potential to a point of solid value without drilling the Arckaringa Basin and frankly, the faster
Linc Energy can drill the area and the more aggressive the initial program is, the more likely
we are going to be successful. This is a very exciting opportunity for Linc Energy and with
drilling costs decreasing and availability of people and equipment 'freeing up', this is a


----------



## basilio

Markets still falling  like a stone but LNC is holding and rising.....

I thinks the core LNC investors believe it will flourish despite the overall pessimism of the market. It does have an absolutely core product, it will be a transparent company and there is no doubt that Peter Bonds relentless enthusiasm and capacity to find and create good partnerships (we hope) is keeping the faith.  I believe it will be this capacity that will separate the thrivers from the failures in the coming years.

Can anyone suggest any similar companies with a strong fundamental product and the drive to keep on top of the heap ?


----------



## basilio

Another  nice story from Peter Bond boosting confidence in the sale of the Teresa coal tenement.

Seems as if the amount of proven coal has practically doubled since they "sold " it to Xinwen so the deal is even BETTER than before. And of course  its such a great deal that anyone else would be lining up to buy this fantastic thermal/coking coal deposit if perchance for any reason Xinwen had a little trip....

It's a good story and obviously meant to encourage everyone in the play to keep going - Xinwen to finalise, other possible buyers to keep sniffing. Nothing like a second bidder to keep the purchaser honest. Should be worth a few more cents on the SP.

Great work Peter  !!


----------



## bloubul

bloubul said:


> More good news from Sapex tenements... looks like SynDiesel at Chinchilla and soon Oil in SA. Good plug by PB for the SA "pro-business" government... that should be a wake-up call for the QLD pro-greenies gov.




 Another release this afternoon to confirm LNC is going to build first commercial UCG/GTL plant (possibly 100000Bpd) in South Australia... 

first page of ASX release...

19 November 2008
LINC ENERGY COMMITS UCG PROJECT TO SOUTH AUSTRALIA
•
Linc Energy will focus on developing its first commercial UCG to GTL Plant in South Australia
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX : LNC) today announced that it will be committing to develop its first commercial Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) operation in South Australia upon the SAPEX areas which it recently acquired.
The decision is made on the back of a number of primary drivers:
Economies of Scale
•
The Arckaringa Basin as one of the largest contiguous coal basins in Australia and indeed the world. Due to the size of the coal resource, Linc Energy believes that it can support a UCG to GTL (Coal to Liquids) business that would include several 100,000 barrel per day facilities. These facilities would be situated so as to create additional value through location and other synergies.
•
Linc Energy has already signalled its intention to develop a number of oil and gas opportunities in the Arckaringa Basin and as such, this provides additional synergy and economy of scale opportunities.
Infrastructure
•
The Arckaringa Basin area has good access to existing rail and port infrastructure that will assist with movement of materials and product for a business of this significance. This infrastructure will more readily support the larger volumes of product contemplated by way of the economies of scale generated.
Resource Access
•
The Arckaringa Basin area has no relevant overlapping tenement issues as the operation of UCG is completed under petroleum tenements in South Australia and Linc Energy currently holds PEL’s (Petroleum Exploration Licences) over its acreage in the Arckaringa Basin.
•
The land areas targeted are flat and accessible and provide more flexibility when planning and constructing UCG operations and related GTL facilities.


----------



## Calliope

Bloubul, there is no need to post these anns. They are available to anybody who is interested, and in any case Linc sends shareholders an email with the same information.

This decision to go to South Australia is not unexpected and I think it is a wise move. For sometime now the Qld govt has been lukewarm on the project, and it is not very encouraging for shareholders interests to be dependant on political whims.

SA will welcome Linc with open arms. They need all the industrial development they can get. Another bonus is that there will be no fights with the big coal seam gas operators who have all the lobbying power with the Qld govt. The environmental problems  in SA will also be much reduced.

When SA is leading the world in GTL production Chinchilla will become a museum site.


----------



## basilio

Anyone care to work out what 1m bpd diesel plant complex will return ? My back of envelope figures suggest $40 a barrel profit  ($30 pb costs, sale at $70 pb).  So $40m per day… $14. Billion  + a year….

Cost to establish  such a complex ? I think I remember figures of around $800 m for the 20,000 bpd plant. This is 50 times that … So  $40 billion…..

And then there’s the staff, physical capital requirements,  pipes, infrastructure whole kit and caboodle.

When you think about it, there are probably a few quietly desperate mining supplies companies who would love to part of such a project and desperate to see some green in their share price. One State, one Federal government and one Future Fund might also be interested in a bold, greenish plan to turn Australia into an oil exporting country and secure our energy independence in a decade - particularly as the International Energy Agency just released a dire report on the depletion of traditional oil fields. And right now we are going through the mother of all recessions. Another good reason for a big, bold step.

How lucky do we feel? Any other thoughts on these back-of-envelope figures and Peters plan?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Anyone care to work out what 1m bpd diesel plant complex will return ? My back of envelope figures suggest $40 a barrel profit  ($30 pb costs, sale at $70 pb).  So $40m per day… $14. Billion  + a year….
> 
> Cost to establish  such a complex ? I think I remember figures of around $800 m for the 20,000 bpd plant. This is 50 times that … So  $40 billion…..
> 
> And then there’s the staff, physical capital requirements,  pipes, infrastructure whole kit and caboodle.
> 
> When you think about it, there are probably a few quietly desperate mining supplies companies who would love to part of such a project and desperate to see some green in their share price. One State, one Federal government and one Future Fund might also be interested in a bold, greenish plan to turn Australia into an oil exporting country and secure our energy independence in a decade - particularly as the International Energy Agency just released a dire report on the depletion of traditional oil fields. And right now we are going through the mother of all recessions. Another good reason for a big, bold step.
> 
> How lucky do we feel? Any other thoughts on these back-of-envelope figures and Peters plan?




Basilio, while PB mentions 1m bpd for 60 years I don't think he would start off with that. One 100,000bpd plant would be,as he says, 5 modules of 20,000bpd and Linc would probably start off with only that. I would also think constructing 5 modules at the same time would give some economies of scale-perhaps reducing each module to $700m-so that's $3.5b.

With the sale of 2 tenements for $1.5b (after tax) approx Linc could borrow $2b (from the future fund ?) or to sweeten the deal, Linc could issue shares for 10% of the borrowing total. Considering only a borrowing of $2b, and setting repayments (P&I) at $400m pa and using your back of envelope calculations (except they would be in USD), that would be $USD1.4b .Using exchange rate of .70 that is A$2.0b then deduct the loan repayment and you have A$1.6b or $4 per share before tax. 

And that's not taking into account-
1. A premium for this ultra clean diesel
2. The other by products (which from memory were worth $40m pa on 20,000 bpd plant.)

Not bad for a start !!! 

I would think that after the 1st 100,000 bpd plant was up and running they could start the next one, possibly constructing a 20,000 bpd module each year and funding it from cash flow. That way Linc could have almost a permanent construction team and reap many benefits from the experienced team.

I feel very lucky that I'm a shareholder in on the ground floor !!!


----------



## Calliope

The market probably feels Linc are moving because they were going to be squeezed out anyway by the big boys in GSG with their $15 billion plans for piping CSG to Gladstone, and building a processing plant there. 

However the move is a smart one and not enexpected. The Qld Minister for Minister for Mines and Energy Geoff Wilson has been given his riding instructions some time ago by Premier Bligh not to make any decisions to upset the Greens, and a go ahead decision for Chinchilla could not have been expected, if at all, before the next election, which Bligh cannot win without the Greens.

The final straw came from the pressure on the Govt from BG to give them the rights over the shared tenements.

Linc would have had all this in mind when they bought Sapex.  They would have made this move in due course, they just needed a catalyst. Being kept dangling on a string is no way to run a business.


----------



## korrupt_1

This article made the *front page* in Adelaide's The Advertiser





> SOUTH Australia has been given a $1 billion shot in the arm with more jobs, greater investment and a new era in cutting-edge fuel technology.
> Clean-coal company Linc Energy yesterday announced it would invest $1 billion to move operations to SA to develop the first of several coal-to-liquids plants in the state's north.
> 
> Linc will establish an Adelaide office with 100 permanent staff for the project, which produces ultra-clean diesel and jet fuels. A further 2000 construction-stage jobs will be created.




Read on here...
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,,24678745-5006301,00.html


----------



## basilio

Strong story and obviously a big news news item for South Australia.

It was a shame there were a  couple of quite important mistakes.

1) It stated that LINC had funds of $1.5b to start the project from the sale of of its coking coal tenements. Not quite true until the deal is sealed and the money in the bank.

2) Also says LINC has a 20,000 bpd plant already in operation at Chincilla. We know it is a pilot plant....


----------



## Smurf1976

Calliope said:


> You may be right. The political climate in this country does not look good for new enterprises involving coal. I heard the Green's spokesperson on energy, Senator Christine Milne raving on in the Senate the other day on the evils of GTL. She was speaking on the Fuel Watch bill, but she never misses an opportunity to rant about the environmental dangers of GTL.



Christine Milne has for the past two decades advocated that we pin our future economy on the notion that oil remains cheap. Likewise the rest of the green movement has done much the same. They just can not seem to comprehend the notion that conventional oil and gas resources are limited despite having a seemingly good grasp of the notion that other things in nature are indeed limited.

*Tourism can replace just about all other industries. It offers massive growth and will be around forever.

*Large scale renewable energy isn't viable because oil and gas are cheaper. To build it requires subsidies, and subsidies are wrong because they divert funds that could otherwise be spent on education or health.

Those two notions are and have always been the twin pillars of Green economics, words repeated so often for so long that many now accept them as fact. 

Anyone who thinks I'm telling lies just go and have a look at what's been publised over the past couple of decades. It's all there in print black and white for anyone who cares to read it.


----------



## basilio

Well we have had a string of strong announcements from LINC. There is no doubt the management is doing its best in the bear market of a century.

But LINC along with almost all other companies continues to fall rapidly.

The final reality of the project is still years away in terms of building and profitably running the UCG/GTL plants. What do other forum members think could be done between now and then to create and continue SP support for the company?  Or is this unnecessary in the sense that in the end what will count is a productive, profitable plant?

Best ideas help to save all our bacon !

_(I suppose this question covers all companies but I'm being selective)_


----------



## champ

Sell now and you will keep some bacon. Hold and youll be eating rice. Lincs initial price looks fair value.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Well we have had a string of strong announcements from LINC. There is no doubt the management is doing its best in the bear market of a century.
> 
> But LINC along with almost all other companies continues to fall rapidly.
> 
> The final reality of the project is still years away in terms of building and profitably running the UCG/GTL plants. What do other forum members think could be done between now and then to create and continue SP support for the company?  Or is this unnecessary in the sense that in the end what will count is a productive, profitable plant?
> 
> Best ideas help to save all our bacon !
> 
> _(I suppose this question covers all companies but I'm being selective)_




A $0.10 per share dividend late next year after the sale of both tenements has been finalised and tax has been paid on the sales would cost only $40 m and should be fully franked. If this intention was announced at next week's AGM it would encourage shareholders to hold onto their shares and put a floor of around $2.50 on the share price imho.


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> Basilio, while PB mentions 1m bpd for 60 years I don't think he would start off with that. One 100,000bpd plant would be,as he says, 5 modules of 20,000bpd and Linc would probably start off with only that. I would also think constructing 5 modules at the same time would give some economies of scale-perhaps reducing each module to $700m-so that's $3.5b.
> 
> With the sale of 2 tenements for $1.5b (after tax) approx Linc could borrow $2b (from the future fund ?) or to sweeten the deal, Linc could issue shares for 10% of the borrowing total. Considering only a borrowing of $2b, and setting repayments (P&I) at $400m pa and using your back of envelope calculations (except they would be in USD), that would be $USD1.4b .Using exchange rate of .70 that is A$2.0b then deduct the loan repayment and you have A$1.6b or $4 per share before tax.
> 
> And that's not taking into account-
> 1. A premium for this ultra clean diesel
> 2. The other by products (which from memory were worth $40m pa on 20,000 bpd plant.)
> 
> Not bad for a start !!!
> 
> I would think that after the 1st 100,000 bpd plant was up and running they could start the next one, possibly constructing a 20,000 bpd module each year and funding it from cash flow. That way Linc could have almost a permanent construction team and reap many benefits from the experienced team.
> 
> I feel very lucky that I'm a shareholder in on the ground floor !!!





Shareholder tours to the Chinchilla site from Brisbane commenced today and PB said (among other things) the SA GTL plant will start with one 20,000bpd module and the others(4) to follow in quick succession. So the back of the envelope numbers above will not happen for a number of years. PB stated he did not wish to fund any construction with debt.

He is very confident that the Chinese $1.5B sale will come through. They are in contact with the purchaser every week and are awaiting Chinese Govt approval for the funds to leave the country.

PB also said they are working on patents in the JV with BiocleanCoal and there should be some news in the 1st quarter of next year. They hope to have a demo bioreactor on the chinchilla site in the 3rd quarter of next year.

Did anyone else visit the site today or last week ?


----------



## Mickel

Market up today by 5.8% but LNC up 11.6% to $2.60. Hopefully this will continue all this week with the added boost of AGM on Thursday.

PB also expressed his opinion at the site tour today that the market should rerate the stock to $4.00 when the chinese $1.5b sale is confirmed.


----------



## eric35

LNC about 2.50 now. $4 would be nice, but the market is so unreliable these day. Very volatile, so we just have to hang in there


----------



## Calliope

PB pulls another rabbit out of the hat.

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24742357-5005200,00.html


----------



## Goldmann

done a bit of googling...  will be interesting to see how the market takes this acquisition, in light of the fact we are still awaiting the cash from China...

Anyway - it appears that Gas Tech Inc, became GFS Corp (Brand?).

Seems like a good fit.. http://www.gfs-corp.net/about.php

"GFS Corp manufactures and sells equipment that enables diesel engines to operate on both diesel and natural gas. The company offers a full line of retrofit conversion systems covering a broad spectrum of diesel engines made by major manufacturers. GFS also offers project development services consolidating its proven Gaseous Fuel™ technologies with LNG/CNG production, storage, and distribution infrastructure into integrated projects throughout the world. GFS is also the Florida Master Distributor for the GTI-Altronic line of Bi-Fuel conversion technology for stationary applications."


Their big ticket item is the GFS:

The Gaseous Fuel System™ conversion technology has been designed to allow for retrofit of diesel engines without the need to change or modify the design of the engine. The The Gaseous Fuel System™ conversion hardware is mounted externally to the engine and does not require modification of the engine. 


____

some background...

Gas Technologies, Inc. of Weston, Florida, the leading supplier in the design, manufacture, and application of bi-fuel conversion systems for industrial diesel-fueled engines was acquired in 2002. Bi-Fuel systems enable standard diesel engines to operate on a combination of diesel fuel and natural gas (up to as high as 70% natural gas content on an energy equivalent basis), typically with no change in engine power rating or efficiency. Fuel flexibility and all of the economies associated with such flexibility are the primary benefits to the customer. In most cases, natural gas is less expensive than the diesel fuel being replaced. Additional details on the GTI Bi-Fuel Systems can be found at www.gti-altronicinc.com.

The GTI product line will be marketed through large engine-generator packagers and engine accessory distributors. Altronic, Inc., is the leading producer of ignition systems for industrial engines worldwide and a producer of instruments and controls for engines and compressors.

--------------

PS - anyone see the Trading Halt sign and immediatley think the chinese cash was in the bank!!!


----------



## Miner

Trading Halt today for an announcement of some American company.
Looks like a big jump tomorrow considering the asking rate has been shown as $4 in ASX site.

I can see the grinned faces of LNC holders. I was waiting to buy it hoping  it will sink further (Sorry current holders)


----------



## Goldmann

also this may be of interest, delay of Monash/Shells Coal to Liquids JV:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/rising-costs-stall-monashs-clean-fuel-project-20081202-6pr1.html

and Miner - commsec is showing the anticipated indicative price of LINCs next open at $2.45. so you may still get your early entry.

The confirmation of the Chinese sale will be the only thing that drives LNC back to $4 (my opinion only).


----------



## glads262

*Trading halt*

Interesting... Announcement is out in the media well ahead of a release to the ASX. Is this allowed because the company is in a trading halt? If the announcement is out, why is the trading halt not being lifted? All of us Linc holders would be hoping they announce the $1.5bil while they are at it!!
(Disclosure - holder)


----------



## Miner

Goldmann said:


> also this may be of interest, delay of Monash/Shells Coal to Liquids JV:
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/rising-costs-stall-monashs-clean-fuel-project-20081202-6pr1.html
> 
> and Miner - commsec is showing the anticipated indicative price of LINCs next open at $2.45. so you may still get your early entry.
> 
> The confirmation of the Chinese sale will be the only thing that drives LNC back to $4 (my opinion only).




Thanks Goldmann for your 99th posting giving me some hope to buy LNC at $2.45 

I was talking with LNC Investment Relations person last week asking about the company's future considering it has risen and dipped much faster than market rise and fall. She obviously did not provide any guidance (legally not allowed to) but provided some good glossy documentation by mail which reads very good and have good information.


----------



## Goldmann

Miner - release out now to Joe Average (that being non-media sources through the ASX), and trading halt removed.

and price stablising mid 2.50's... $4 is still a long way away (well maybe not if they have the signed MOA for the Xinwyen Purchase!)

could be worse - could have a stack of OZ Min shares (apologies to those who do!)


----------



## Glen48

Makes me happy i sold mine yesterday at 2.35 now I can buy in again at the top and do a repeat.
Still Oil is going down were does this leave LNC?


----------



## basilio

I think this is a very clever acquisition by LINC.  Like the Sapex deal it brings in excellent coal reserves and the opportunity to establish a UCG/GTL plant on another site, this time in America *with full control over the  profits*.

Linc pays in scrip so no cash outlay. Scrip is valued at $4.00 which  in a sense improves the value for current shareholders. Of course the shareholders in the takeover target have a chance to see their latent coal assets converted into big bucks - which makes the deal excellent from their point of view.

*And all the time the Chinese are humming and harring about finalising their piece of the action*.  I see this as an excellent rocket for the negotiations. Everyone wants to be with a winner and as it becomes clear that LINC is going full steam ahead with other parties the Chinese will not want to be left behind.

As far as the price of oil goes the geology of oil depletion means we will have severe shortages within a few years. The rate of depletion of current assets and the postponement of other energy projects in teh current environment will hasten this process.

Perhaps one of the more significant shortages will be skilled staff and  engineering capacity to build the plants. I suggest the next takeover could be a desperate mining services company - again for scrip !


----------



## Goldmann

Closed at 2.39 i think after some late selling, so not all is lost.

About the oil (and coal, and all raw materials) question - this doesnt affect miners that arent actually producing yet... What matters to Linc is the Oil price when they roll their production barrels of the line...  If you think Oil is going to stay sub $40 forever, then i would question why you would invest in LNC... 

I.e. Oil price affects Woodside's operational profit (and EPS) today, but LNC SP is reflecting pure potential at the moment... until the sale of the Coal tenements come through and the SP is rated based on cash assets.


----------



## treefrog

basilio said:


> As far as the price of oil goes the geology of oil depletion means we will have severe shortages within a few years.




ah yes, defiately heard that before - the best brains and compters in the world (Club of Rome) predicted same in 1978 but here we are, oil trundling back to sub $40 after a manipulated trip to $100 plus.
But maybe, there is only enough oil to last the world another 6 days - maybe.


----------



## basilio

Well Treefrog if Peter Bond and the other directors at LINC didn't believe  there would be strong long term demand for diesel at a good price we wouldn't have LINC.


----------



## Miner

Glen48 said:


> Makes me happy i sold mine yesterday at 2.35 now I can buy in again at the top and do a repeat.
> Still Oil is going down were does this leave LNC?




Glen48

You did not lose much considering LNC closed at 2.39 today and who knows if it  will go south or north tomorrow ? 

So a loss of 4 cents compared to today's closing rate you are actually cooking with gas.


----------



## Glen48

Its not the money I am worried about chase LNC up and down its my sanity and will I last the distance.


----------



## Miner

I am reading the announcement issued this morning once again from LInc Energy as a past time reading .

In page 2 of the attachment Peter Bond is referring of some IPO. Which basically means the share price should be attractive in early 2009 to raise further equity. See attached. 

LNC  bought  the shares of USA Coal company for $4.08 for each share of LNC. THough it is unclear what was the fair value for Coal Company since the due diligence is now to begin. One logic could be when negotiation started the ratio of US vs Aus Dollar has changed in favour of Aussie Dollar. 

But what was the price of LNC scrip at that time ?

*AS PER ASX PETER BOND ON THREE SUCCESSIVE DAYS 19  TO 21 NOV SOLD 482,479 ordinary shares @$2.71 !!!*

PETER BOND ON 6 NOV SOLD 151. 000 SHARES @$3.03 !!!

KEN DARK ANOTHER DIRECTOR SOLD 80.000 SHARES AT AVG PRICE OF #2.56 IN BETWEEN 27 AND 29 NOV. THIS WAS REPORTED ASX ON 2 NOV ONE DAY BEFORE THE HALT

BRIAN JOHNSON CHAIRMAN SOLD SOME 350 000 SHARES AT $3.23 ON 21 OCT 08. 

I wonder if Gas Tech EMT team was so naive or desperate   to pay for LNC scrip @$4 when the market price was in between $2 to 3 and only in the beginning of this year LNC was quoted less than a dollar. 

Under common sense the CTG technology is less commercially viable when oil price is so low?  

Don't know the answer but trying to put  across  before  the learned audience to know and understand my gaps in understanding the LNC  logic  or if  the good story on LNC is really too good ?

To educate myself  I did some search in  Google Australia and USA sites, Wyoming White and Yellow Pages etc. 

Whereas we must rely on the report published in ASX but some of the USA Media has reported like this on 3 Dec 08 

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article167460.ece :

*Linc will buy 100% of coal company Gastech via the issue of Linc’s Australian shares at a pre-agreed price of A$3.76 (US$2.39) per share. The deal represents a premium of about 50% compared to Linc’s close of A$2.55 yesterday. *

Some Google research on Wyoming based Gas Tech COmpany 

Could not find much about this company excepting whatever being published today through Linc Energy .

Tried whitepages in USA and found the address : Gastech Inc

(307) 265-7252
139 West 2nd Street, Suite 200,
Casper, WY 82601  No website. 

In the same address however there is another company Wold Oil  Company's office on the same suite no with website address  http://www.woldoil.com/ 

If you click on the link of the* WOLDoil *there is a page which has several defunct links !!

The only other source on Gas Tech is found in this link

http://www.trib.com/articles/2007/12/18/news/wyoming/8fe45f6c4b8444ac872573b500089e28.txt

As a prospective investor, I am getting very curious on the whereabouts of Gas Tech.

Surely there will be far more people in ASF who know more about Gas Tech and LNC


----------



## inrodwetrust

> ah yes, defiately heard that before - the best brains and compters in the world (Club of Rome) predicted same in 1978 but here we are, oil trundling back to sub $40 after a manipulated trip to $100 plus.
> But maybe, there is only enough oil to last the world another 6 days - maybe.




treefrog

Well there may well be heaps of oil still around but not in Oz, US or China. It's long been considered Aust will be a net importer of Oil within 8 years (unless you know something!...if so please share it with us), so one would think, if LNC is successful in commercialisation, then PB's got the timing just about right. 

And the US is in a similar position (depending on Alaska) & China. Obama declared he wants the US to be not dependent on foreign oil, so this type of project should get his support, if it is successful. Indeed any sensible govt would try to be energy self-sufficient. 

FYI I think computers & sw are a bit more advanced now than in the 70's


----------



## ColB

Even the big guns (Rio Tinto) are following in Linc's footsteps with investment in the coal gasification to liquids technology.  



> *Rio Tinto Sets Sights on Monetizing Coal With Gasification*
> 
> 02 December 2008 - "... Rio Tinto has recognized the important opportunity for sustainable development through the *gasification of coal for energy and liquid products*. Tom Albanese, Chief Investment Officer for Rio Tinto, said “Coal is a key part of Rio Tinto’s energy business and we believe it has an essential role in generating clean power in the future.”
> 
> *Rio Tinto has joined with BP to form Hydrogen Energy* for the purpose of accomplishing the goal of developing coal gasification plants and creating clean power. Rio Tinto made a cash investment of *$32 million* towards the joint venture.
> 
> The new venture, Hydrogen Energy, will be headquartered in Weybridge. Both companies will provide employees for staffing the company. The initial headcount is expected to be approximately 75 employees.
> 
> www.coalgasificationnews.com/2008/12/02/rio-tinto-sets-sights-on-monetizing-coal-with-gasification/


----------



## Miner

ColB said:


> Even the big guns (Rio Tinto) are following in Linc's footsteps with investment in the coal gasification to liquids technology.




Rio is a great company. 

Rio knows the industry and future pretty well. 

Fools say that it is a top heavy company and when some one needs to be sacked they promote that person. 

When they lost $45 Million in a break down at one of the WA mines they did  not sack any one and rewarded  the people who should be punished for poor maintenance. 

The old tyre bungle was totally kept secret. It has an ocean of money so few hundreds of millions no one notices.

who wants  more proof : 

Being a mining company they investing in coal to gas - no synergy of brain here (I am assuming some left)

$34 billion or more in debt 

Refused the deal with BHP when their share price was at $140 telling Rio price was too cheap offered by BHP and now landed the share holders at a price of $34 (may be lower tomorrow )

So it is definitely a legacy and smart move to follow Rio's foot steps and getting excited about it. I think no one hardly read the issue behind the so called US company who bought LNC share at $4 when the directors have started unloading their holdings. All smart moves 

Good luck to me as I just stopped the temptation (greed)  to buy LNC and RIO even the prices sunk down


----------



## glads262

*I can't handle it anymore!!*

Anyone found any further info on the Teresa sale?? Anyone know of concrete evidence of the Chinese govt putting a hold on purchases of foreign assets?? (did a chinese co just buy Perilya??) Whats going on??


----------



## basilio

The  chinese are very strong negotiators. There is a risk that unless a deal is part of an overall long term package a chinese negotiating team may simply walk away from an agreement.( This comes from a business friend who has first hand experience with industrial negotiations in China.)

The Teresa deal is part of a package which incorporates LINC's partnership in developing  UCG/GTL projects in China. It also ties in with Chinas need to be energy self sufficient as traditional oil  reserves rapidly deplete and oil exporters ration their exports as a consequence.

The big picture is realising that regardless of the current low price of oil, *it will rise rapidly in the next few years* and that now is the time to build the partnerships, infrastructure and skills that will be essential for energy self sufficiency from 2011- 12 onwards.

Anyway that is the reality and hopefully the pitch that LINC is discussing with its Chinese counterparts in what is a terrible economic climate.


----------



## Calliope

The increased demand during the resources boom led many to think that the world was running out of resources,including oil. 

The World Bank has forecast that







> there is little likelihood that the world will run out of natural resources (or food) in coming decades




It has noted that the existence of ample reserves, and a history of the improvements in the technology with which resources were found and extracted, suggested that supply will continue to rise in pace with demand.

It is worth remembering that the coal gas to liquid fuel technology was pioneered in Germany during the war. After the war the availability of cheap oil made this process uneconomic. High oil prices have not been sufficientlly sustainable in the past 60 years to change this outlook. 

Any company seeking to raise capital to start GTL production at this time would have it's work cut out.

Linc now has all it's eggs in one basket. So everything hinges on the China deal, which hinges on the whims of the Chinese Government


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Calliope* "...Any company seeking to raise capital to start GTL production at this time would have it's work cut out.
> 
> Linc now has all it's eggs in one basket. So everything hinges on the China deal, which hinges on the whims of the Chinese Government..."




You losing faith Calliope?  Granted that LNC does need considerable capital to build its first plant and the completion of the 'Teresa Sale' is important no matter *WHO* buys it.  

Until such time as the company actually makes money it does make you wonder what will propel the SP over the next 6-12 months apart from the sale of other coal tenements that they are proving up.  

Its not going to happen overnight but their MOU's with Vietnam, China, JV's in the US (Wyoming), etc are setting this company up for what I believe will be a prosperous future.  Wouldn't it be good if they could power BHP's Olympic Dam Expansion, you never know what might be around the corner.

And it is interesting that BP and RIO have put 32 Million into a Coal to liquids venture.

The current SP over the past 2-3 weeks seems to have found reasonable support around the $2.40 - $2.60 mark although has closed a little bearish today for my liking.

Any technical analyst care to give their view on the chart at todays close.  I would appreciate it.  Is it a triangle formation about to break up or down?  Not qualified to say but would appreciate any comment.  Thanks CB


----------



## awg

am a holder of this stock

re the proposed Chinese purchase of the coal tenement.

it occurs to me that why would they pay $1B+ for it, when the market Cap of LNC is now only about $993M?

I have dealt with Chinese businessmen before.

my answer would be, they wont.

I wouldnt

so what next?  

build a stake?   takeover offer?


----------



## oldblue

awg said:


> am a holder of this stock
> 
> re the proposed Chinese purchase of the coal tenement.
> 
> it occurs to me that why would they pay $1B+ for it, when the market Cap of LNC is now only about $993M?
> 
> I have dealt with Chinese businessmen before.
> 
> my answer would be, they wont.
> 
> I wouldnt
> 
> so what next?
> 
> build a stake?   takeover offer?





A takeover may not be politically possible whereas purchasing assets piecemeal might be acceptable as Sinopec did with 60% of the Puffin oilfield.

Just a thought. I don't hold LNC.


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *AWG*  "...re the proposed Chinese purchase of the coal tenement. it occurs to me that why would they pay $1B+ for it, when the market Cap of LNC is now only about $993M?  I have dealt with Chinese businessmen before. my answer would be, they wont.
> I wouldnt. so what next? build a stake? takeover offer?




As a holder also, I understand your frustration AWG especially when our market goes up and this slowly is going down.  But I don't think LNC's market cap of $933 million has anything to do with Teresa Coal sale.  The Chinese are not buying LNC, they're buying one of LNC's assets.  The irony is that the $1.5 billion heads of agreement with Xinwan regarding the sale is actually cheaper now than it would have been had they progressed the sale at the time it was announced.

You need to remember that LNC was trading around the $4 mark before this potential sale was announced to the market.  I can't remember exactly what LNC rose as a result but I think it was around 60-90 cents or so.

Peter Bond stated that he expects the SP to head back to around $4 when and if this sale is finalised in the short term.  In this market I think he is too optimistic for that to happen.

For what it is worth I really can't see this thing moving much until it gets closer to production which will be at least 12 months or some mind boggling joint ventures are announced where investors will see the huge potential that this company has to make a bucket load of money.  

The only problem at the moment is they can't do that while oil is selling at the ridiculously low price that it is but we all know that that is a short term scenario anyway.

Regards CB


----------



## xscape

May anyone suggest a reason(s) why the chinese would actually go through with the purchase, given the current conditions?  Seems like its going to be a no go..

Disclosure: I continue to hold LNC.


----------



## XandraX

Anyone know what's going on today? (down 20% at one point) Is this something to do with them issuing shares?


----------



## Calliope

xscape said:


> May anyone suggest a reason(s) why the chinese would actually go through with the purchase, given the current conditions?  Seems like its going to be a no go..
> 
> Disclosure: I continue to hold LNC.




It is difficult for us to understand the workings of the oriental business mind. However an interview with an unnamed high ranking official as reported in the Nanjing English language _Daily Bugle_ may cast a little light on this matter.



> When we offer Link Bond $1.5(A) billion for theresa coke mine it was  big steal. Now that Aussie dollar has gone pearshaped it is real bargain. However our steel industry also go pearshaped. We have more coke coal than need
> 
> But we always look to future. If we buy mine by time we dig up coal, steel boom again.
> 
> Political picture in Australia not so pretty. Barbarians ruling party dominated  by Green terrorists. They have Rudd by short and curly. Greens say all coal must stay in ground. Unlike Chinese, Mr Rudd talk in riddles. Nobody understand what he say and tonal nuances no help, Our expert on Aussie lingo say he trying to bet two way, He want China to remain rich and prosperous with big need for Australian coke coal and iron. As Confucious would say, Rudd thinking and green terrorist thinking not compatiable. Big danger Rudd to save face might say no more *new* coal mine.
> 
> We put problem in too hard basket for another time. We in no hurry. It took thousand year to get where we are. Mr Link Bond go nowhere without our money. We have him by short and curly.


----------



## Goldmann

wow - that is some key news... with that in mind... LNC share price will bounce between $1.50 and $2.70 for the near future.  Alot of the buyers at the moment would be acting with the "near to be finalised" (Bonds words not mine) teresa coal sale... this sounds ominous...

also if you look at Gloucester and MCC today, its not a pretty time to be a coal producer selling to world steel demand... it has evaporated...  that is why there has been no "Bargain" take overs since this crisis really picked up speed... fortescue's potential against is Market cap is evidence enough of this... potential means nothing for the short term - and all small - mid caps will suffer as a result...


----------



## Calliope

My high ranking Chinese official is,of course. completely fictitious. But I am pretty sure that , if he did exist, he would be thinking something along those lines.


----------



## Goldmann

hahahah fictious but probably spot on!!!

Something about the short and curly's being a well known confucianism had me confused!


----------



## kam75

Technical analysis of a chart of LNC suggests a further move to the downside.


----------



## Goldmann

more Bond firefighting from todays announcement RE: wtf from the asx:

The Company is aware of announcements made today by other companies regarding actions being taken in response to the weaker global demand for coking coal which has negatively affected share prices across the sector. Given this, the only explanation the Company can offer for the trading in its shares is that there is speculation in the market based on these other announcements that the completion of the Company's previously announced sale of its Emerald (Teresa) coal tenements may be affected. Based on continuing communication with the purchaser, the Company advises that it remains confident that the Emerald sale will be finalized in *due course.*

______________________

due course doesnt sound like soon!!!


----------



## mexican

Could it be the farmers that Linc compensated are cashing in before Christmas.


If so, it would be a very nice Chrissie present!


----------



## Gundini

I think kam75's graph says it all. I was looking to enter this one but I think it is too much of a gamble. I am going to stay on the sideline with this one. 

If the deal comes off, I miss out. (Hope you holders make a killing!)

If it doesn't, the company has great assets and will be great value!

I feel the deal going a little sour in the current climate. The company says it should go ahead.

What a deal if it comes off though!  Major cash up!


----------



## Goldmann

yeah and i hate stocks like this when your in..

you want to get out cause you think it will go lower in the short term, but you dont want to get out just in case your out when that longed-for Trading Halt gets posted!!!!  I spose its the nature of small caps!


----------



## XandraX

Trading halt pending news regarding tenement sale! Hold on to your hats...

Hopefully it's good news.


----------



## xscape

Reading between the lines, the news does not look good.  "long term financing facilities"?.. I thought the teresa sale was the answer to that.


----------



## grace

xscape said:


> Reading between the lines, the news does not look good.  "long term financing facilities"?.. I thought the teresa sale was the answer to that.




Yes, I read between the lines too.  Hold onto your hats.  It was interesting that the trading halt was called as the sp was starting to tank.


----------



## basilio

Interesting..... Looking at the collapse in Lincs price in the last few days one might suspect that the $1.5 billion coal sale is not going to clear the hurdles. If there was knowledge that everything was going well you'd think there would be some strengthening of shares... perhaps.

Long term financing? Well if the reality is that  that is what it takes to build the plant then lets simply hope the money is there and LINC doesn't fall over because of lack of funds. And lets remember the Teresa coal fields aren't going anywhere. They still represent a valuable inground asset..

But I still want a nice Christmas present !!


----------



## Jimminy

other than the price of oil, the market has begun factoring in the fall over of this sale for a number of weeks now.

You would have had to hope the purchasers were complete fools to go ahead with the purchase in the current environment. Unfortunately for the LNC shareholders it doesn't appear as though Xinwen Mining are fools.

Just the current shareholders.....it verifies my concerns about directors selling the past few months, although it is really a drop in the ocean for them.

Best of luck to you with the announcement.


----------



## basilio

Couple of quite big spikes in volume on 16th and 18th December corresponding with the sharp falls in LNC. 

It will be interesting to see what is happening.


----------



## Go Nuke

If it is bad news I feel inclined to be on the phone to ASIC to have a close look at the transactions prior to the halt.

SP has really suffer of late...funny that


----------



## Glen48

IMO the share market is crashing and every thing is going down a few % a day and it is all down to the credit bubble, every one is sitting on the side lines waiting to see if there is a bottom which there will be but not in 2009


----------



## grace

Oh dear, I don't think the market is going to like this tomorrow, and I'm not going to win the stock comp this month!



> Linc Energy Ltd (ASX : LNC) announced today that negotiations have progressed particularly well over the past three to four week and it remains confident that it will complete the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) coal tenements for AUS$ 1.5 billion. However in the light of a number of issues, including complications associated with the global financial crisis and the upcoming Christmas and Chinese New Year break, it appears unlikely Linc Energy will be able to complete the exchange of documents and receive payment of the $150 million deposit by end of December 2008.
> 
> Subsequently, it is estimated that the process of completion of the sale will take another 6 to 8 weeks.




No santa visit for Linc this Christmas!


----------



## eric35

Well, looks like it coud be a present early next year. let us all hope so.
I would like to see it up a few % before I feel comfortable getting in. A bit of volume should give us an indication.


----------



## basilio

What an interesting game of chess  !!

I think everyone would believe that the closure of the original coal deal  proposal made before the collapse of financial markets would have been a bloody miracle. Too much has changed to think the original proposal would still be as attractive to the Chinese.

But...  it seems the deal is still on the table erhaps there are other interested parties - always good for competition, and will oil and energy stay this low for even the immediate future? And the Teresa coal fields won't disappear.

I like the $36 mill financing. It says that Linc won't fall over for at least 12 months and that there are good plan B's.

Perhaps the courageous ones will see a good opportunity at $1.50 - $1.70 tomorrow... (or are there better options? )

Cheers


----------



## mexican

The original deal was 1.5 bill for 400k tonnes.
Now that tonnage has doubled and the cost has gone from $3.70 ish per tonne to $1.30 ish with the current value of the dollars (Yaun and Aussie)
Fools in my opinion if they don't buy it!
BMA owns alot of tenements in that area and are always on the prowl for quality coke deposits!
IMO Linc will sell Teresa to the Chinese or another party.
With a future GTL plant with Xinwen, Linc or Xinwen would not like to tread on each others toes!


----------



## namrog

The Theresa deal will go through in my oppinion.

It's a hell of a lot better deal now for the chinese , than what it was, when it was announced, as Mexican has stated above. ( ARE YOU A REAL MEXICAN ?? )

I've unloaded some Linc at 2-50 ish, and some more AT 2-15 last week based purely on the chart, and was hopeing to reenter around 1-50 ish or lower, well I may get what I want or may not, but have to say that I didn't see any major fundamental changes as far as the company is concerned, just for me a technical thing.

And now with the deal put back for another possible 8 weeks, won't in the meantime give the SP any impeteus to move forward, especially if the markets take another dive generally, which is looking more and more likely, as we move into the new year, so I'm thinking around February will be time enough.

Merry Chrisrmas and Best of luck all Linc holders, I still hold quite a bit, and believe when the time is right , it will fly 

My Oppinion only

Re Joe.


----------



## eric35

Linc Energy has announced that it has secured AU$36 million financing by way of fully underwritten Convertible Notes arranged by BBY Limited.

Sounds good to be able to obtain finance in this cimate.


----------



## Mickel

WOW !!!
ASX 200 up 1.2% and LNC up 18.9 % to $1.92. Is this end of year euphoria or is there good news in the wind?


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by Mickel:
> 
> "WOW !!! ASX 200 up 1.2% and LNC up 18.9 % to $1.92. Is this end of year euphoria or is there good news in the wind?"




I thought we were having to wait 4-8 weeks for any confirmation of Teresa sale.  What other good news could there be?  This thing has been hammered in recent times so it is nice to see it come back a little but it is just as likely to retrace 6-8% tomorrow.

I'm tipping we'll be waiting a good 12 months before we see anywhere near previous highs.  Feel sorry for those that jumped on the bandwagon when it was in the $4 and above range!

Hang on, I was one of those idiots that bought more at that price


----------



## eric35

I think we should see some good news soon. a newsletter for my subscribers pointing out the good and bad points.

But I lie LNC and am holding it.


----------



## mfp

It was fairly obvious that this thing was ripe for a quick trade as of late yesterday, after it created a double intraday bottom at 1.50 on fri & mon. I was a little greedy and missed an entry at 1.53 yesterday, and even fell half a cent short in the auction, but bought on open today @ 1.60. As usual, sold a little early @ 1.80, but a 12.5% gain in a few hours was too good to pass up. My pain of missing the top was shortlived after having today traded SGX 4 times intraday and NXS twice for a 100% strike rate!!


----------



## Mickel

mfp said:


> It was fairly obvious that this thing was ripe for a quick trade as of late yesterday, after it created a double intraday bottom at 1.50 on fri & mon. I was a little greedy and missed an entry at 1.53 yesterday, and even fell half a cent short in the auction, but bought on open today @ 1.60. As usual, sold a little early @ 1.80, but a 12.5% gain in a few hours was too good to pass up. My pain of missing the top was shortlived after having today traded SGX 4 times intraday and NXS twice for a 100% strike rate!!




I thought  $1.64 was a good price on 24/12 as I had a gut feeling that 1.60 to 1.50 would be the bottom and so I topped up again.

Great to see the S/P keep going up today- currently up $0 .24 to $2.11

I think the S/P overreacted to the fall in oil prices and now that they have turned around the S/P is rocketing back up. Long may it continue !

 I'm in for the long haul and will think in a few year's time that they were a steal at $1.64


----------



## grace

Mickel said:


> I thought  $1.64 was a good price on 24/12 as I had a gut feeling that 1.60 to 1.50 would be the bottom and so I topped up again.
> 
> Great to see the S/P keep going up today- currently up $0 .24 to $2.11
> 
> I think the S/P overreacted to the fall in oil prices and now that they have turned around the S/P is rocketing back up. Long may it continue !
> 
> I'm in for the long haul and will think in a few year's time that they were a steal at $1.64




Mickel your gut feeling is better than mine.  I sold some more off yesterday given my thoughts on the lag in sale of Theresa. I thought the market would get bored waiting.

Also thought the rise might be due to index funds readjusting at year end.  Time will tell....


----------



## Mickel

grace said:


> Mickel your gut feeling is better than mine.  I sold some more off yesterday given my thoughts on the lag in sale of Theresa. I thought the market would get bored waiting.
> 
> Also thought the rise might be due to index funds readjusting at year end.  Time will tell....




Grace, I think you're right about the index funds. I'd like to see oil stabilise around USD 50,  and then we may see a further rise in LNC, even though they're 2-3 years from commercial production.

And bring on the Theresa sale for a real lift in the S/P.


----------



## jast28

Late in September, LNC share price was about $5, but has dropped since in sympathy with the general market. Now the share price stands at $1.99, still in a down turn. 

I can see a few positive pointers to point to a rise in the share price.

•    Linc Energy and BP Australia agreed to extend a Memorandum of Understanding to negotiate the supply of Ultra-Clean Diesel.
•    Linc Energy has just signed a multi-million dollar power deal with Vietnam, which could see up to 6 million homes in Vietnam with power generated from Underground Coal Gasification.
•    Recently Linc Energy also announced that it has reached a Memorandum of Understanding  with the Huadian Coal Industry group from China. 
•    Linc Energy would also like to announce that it has secured AU$36 million financing by way of fully underwritten Convertible Notes arranged by BBY Limited. Not easily achieved in these days of tight finance.
•    Emerald (Teresa) coal sale negotiations progressing very well with a deposit expected to be paid within 6 to 8 weeks.

There are risks of course. But I think Linc Energy is still one of the best buys on the ASX right now. This is a company that continues to advance towards commercial production.
I believe we should place LNC in our watch list and monitor it daily. Watch for increasing volume together with a price rise. If it then fits in with your trading plan, follow your trading plan.

 Note: I am holding LNC. Information above is INFORMATION only. Please seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.


----------



## Mickel

LNC up for 3rd day straight along with oil prices.

Currently $2.20 (up 3c) after high of $2.25 earlier today.


----------



## Goldmann

ColB said:


> Peter Bond stated that he expects the SP to head back to around $4 when and if this sale is finalised in the short term.  In this market I think he is too optimistic for that to happen.
> 
> Regards CB




Starting to think Peter Bond is the super optimist... needs to sort out this teresa sale asap, or the SP could bottom out under a dollar... 6 weeks is still a long way away...


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Goldman*:
> 
> Starting to think Peter Bond is the super optimist... needs to sort out this teresa sale asap, or the SP could bottom out under a dollar... 6 weeks is still a long way away...




Goldy, Chart is very bearish and this one may test its recent lows of $1.50 tomorrow unless the Dow Jones has a good day overnight.  

It shouldn't make any difference fundamentally but a little postive sentiment may allow it to climb a little before again getting sold down.

Prediction for tomorrow: (Subject to any LNC ASX announcement)

Open 1.69
High 1.77
Low 1.57


----------



## Mickel

ColB said:


> Goldy, Chart is very bearish and this one may test its recent lows of $1.50 tomorrow unless the Dow Jones has a good day overnight.
> 
> It shouldn't make any difference fundamentally but a little postive sentiment may allow it to climb a little before again getting sold down.
> 
> Prediction for tomorrow: (Subject to any LNC ASX announcement)
> 
> Open 1.69
> High 1.77
> Low 1.57




Col, you could well be on the money but I predict that, if the oil price moves up $2 or more, LNC S/P will finish in the black. The S/P has mirrored the rise and fall in the oil price over the last 8 trading days.


----------



## maala

Has anyone else seen any news stating that Xinwen has just planned to raise 800 million Yuan ( 170 mill AUD) by issuing bonds? I read a post elsewhere but can't find anything to verify this.


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Maala*
> 
> Has anyone else seen any news stating that Xinwen has just planned to raise 800 million Yuan ( 170 mill AUD) by issuing bonds? I read a post elsewhere but can't find anything to verify this.




Maala the only reference I can find to your news is at HotCopper and no where else at this stage so the authenticity of it may be in question.

Here's the link if you want to read it....

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single50.asp?fid=1&tid=813237&msgid=4502816



If they had raised those sort of funds for the Teresa acquisition I would have thought LNC would release it ASAP.


----------



## maala

Hi ColB,

Thanks for that, I read it on Hot copper as well and to be honest I have my doubts. The link posted there took me to the Chinese version of the wall street journal, but couldn't find any references in the main wall street journal web site or the bloomberg.

I guess we'll just have to sweat bullets for a little longer

Cheers
M


----------



## Redwings

Doubt that there will be any significant news from China anytime this week or the week after. They will all be in Chinese New Year mode (CNY on 26 Jan) and traditionally, business is never done for that for the week. 

Just my


----------



## 9405

Has anyone heard the news about Linc making half their Drilling Team redundant as well as others within the head office.  Things mustn't be looking too good for the sale, otherwise you would expect they would keep them a little longer. I'm not too sure where they can go from here with no form of income and confidence dropping.


----------



## grace

9405 said:


> Has anyone heard the news about Linc making half their Drilling Team redundant as well as others within the head office.  Things mustn't be looking too good for the sale, otherwise you would expect they would keep them a little longer. I'm not too sure where they can go from here with no form of income and confidence dropping.




Per rules on this forum, you need to back up that sort of statement with a link on where you got it from.  The mods will be after you otherwise, and we don't want to end up like HotCopper!


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *9405:*
> 
> Has anyone heard the news about Linc making half their Drilling Team redundant as well as others within the head office. Things mustn't be looking too good for the sale, otherwise you would expect they would keep them a little longer. I'm not too sure where they can go from here with no form of income and confidence dropping.




9405, a few google checks don't highlight any reference to your assertion that Linc are cutting staff numbers.  If they were, would they be any different to Rio Tinto or any other company that are being affected by a downturn in world markets and laying off staff.  It doesn't mean they are going to dissapear off the face of the earth.

As for the Teresa sale, it will happen, but Linc may not get as much money as originally anticipated for the sale.

As for no income and 'confidence dropping' I would just like to let you know that anyone who has a genuine interest in Linc's future know's that they will not generate any income for at least 12 months until one of their first gas to liquids plants is up and running.

If you have no confidence in Linc just put a little thought to where they may be in a couple of years, with Joint ventures in Vietnam, China, USA and their plans for multiple GTL plants on their Sapex holdings in South Australia.


----------



## Goldmann

Also - they were continuing to drill the Teresa tenements up until the final sale goes through... this could be taken as a sign the sale is going through, hence no further reason to further define that resource?

share price hammered today.


----------



## Goldmann

maala said:


> Hi ColB,
> 
> Thanks for that, I read it on Hot copper as well and to be honest I have my doubts. The link posted there took me to the Chinese version of the wall street journal, but couldn't find any references in the main wall street journal web site or the bloomberg.
> 
> I guess we'll just have to sweat bullets for a little longer
> 
> Cheers
> M




Look what i just found: http://en.sxcoal.com/NewsDetail.aspx?cateID=167&id=20062


Xinwen Mining to issue financing bills Wednesday, January 14, 2009 


You have item(s) left to view for this trial. 
Xinwen Mining Group Co Ltd will issue 800 million yuan short-term financing bills with a maturity of 365 days on the interbank market on Jan. 15, according to China Knowledge.

The short-term financing bills will be issued at face value and the coupon rate will be determined during the process of book building. 

Huaxia Bank has been assigned as major underwriter for the issuance.

Proceeds from the issuance will be used to replenish working capital and *repay bank loans*, the company announced in a statement. 

Xinwen Mining Group Co., Ltd, located within the territory of East China's Shandong Province, is one of China's large coal enterprises, with above 15 million tonnes of production capacity annually.

China Knowledge (need subscription for full article):

http://www.chinaknowledge.com/Newswires/News_Detail.aspx?type=1&NewsID=20482

---- so now we have Linc going and getting some bank funds up their sleeve - and Xinwen doing the same...???


----------



## Mickel

LNC hovering around $1.60 after an earlier $1.58 low. For those who believe in the Linc story (I am one) this is a very attractive price.


----------



## prawn_86

Mickel said:


> LNC hovering around $1.60 after an earlier $1.58 low. For those who believe in the Linc story (I am one) this is a very attractive price.




Why is it an attractive price? Please provide some form of analysis otherwise the post will be removed.

Thanks

Prawn


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Prawn*:
> 
> Why is it an attractive price? Please provide some form of analysis otherwise the post will be removed.




I'll try on Mickel's behalf Prawn.

LNC has in the past month been sold down to a low of $1.50 before closing above $1.60 on both occasions.  It has 'HAD' strong support at that level.

Fundamentals aside, its closing price of $1.60 today could be attractive to even a technical trader.

A bad day tomorrow however may well test those lows.

Let's hope for a good day, we're due one!


----------



## basilio

Much of the discussion re LINC  on this Forum has covered
1) The innovative nature of the coal to fuel technology
2) The  practical success of the trial technology
3) The wide ranging nature of the companies activities - international hookups in India, China, Vietnam, and USA
4) The pending sale of the Teresa coal tenements to Chinese interests for $1.5 billion.  (Which is still not settled....)

IF, IF... these premises are accepted as valid then the current LINC price is cheap.


----------



## Mickel

Thanks ColB and Basilio. 
While Peter Bond is confident the Teresa sale will be finalised with the Chinese, even if it isn't, the tenement is still very valuable. At a sale price of $1.5B it is worth approx $3.75 gross per share which makes the current price of $1.60 very cheap.


----------



## glads262

*employee options?*

Just posting an idea that it is possibly employee excised options that have recently been responsible for some of the selling on the market? These employee's would be sitting on very large gains which they have not previously had access to - and may be wanting to cash out. Hopefully over the next few days this possible selling pressure will ease?

This is a hypothesis only - please do your own research!


----------



## Goldmann

ColB said:


> I'll try on Mickel's behalf Prawn.
> 
> LNC has in the past month been sold down to a low of $1.50 before closing above $1.60 on both occasions.  It has 'HAD' strong support at that level.
> 
> Fundamentals aside, its closing price of $1.60 today could be attractive to even a technical trader.
> 
> A bad day tomorrow however may well test those lows.
> 
> Let's hope for a good day, we're due one!





whats more worrying is what will happen if LNC close at 1.50 or below... Oil price has rallied substantially in last few days from $34 odd $40+. LNC has been following oil - but not this time... people are loading up to get rid of this one... the employee options may be one plausible reason...

just my opinion.. i hold (still with the long term in mind)...


----------



## Glen48

Latest opinion is OIL will go as low as $17 a B.?????
still won't make any difference to our costs we all know how will protected we are from getting dudded.


----------



## The Dealer

The BBY analysts have a SP of 2c if oil is at $35. It's a reflection of the balance sheet as is right now.
I would think the dive in the SP is all connected to the unwinding of hedge funds and margin calls. People are pulling from hedge funds and they have to sell out. The hedge funds don't want to, but have no choice when a redemption form shows up. 
Also, with big pull backs in resources and banks yesterday, people are getting MC and have to sell even though they don't want to either. Worse, is that some margin lenders continually reduce the LVR on certain shares which is causing more margin calls.
Not sure on this, but I think LNC has dropped out of top 200 so index funds would also be eliminating their positions.
I bought at $1.89 months ago and sold this one out after it got $5 and  thought I was out too early. But I have just started to come back in and will average in over the next couple of months. I'm sure others will think $1.60 is better than $5 too and do the same.


----------



## The Dealer

Glen48 said:


> Latest opinion is OIL will go as low as $17 a B.?????
> still won't make any difference to our costs we all know how will protected we are from getting dudded.




Here is a analyst report for QAN on fuel prices. 
Don't think $17 this year will matter when LNC wont be producing till 2010.
Event

With Macquarie Research updating our oil price and economic expectations, we have taken the opportunity to revise our fuel bill estimates for the Australian airlines.

We have also revised our yield and load factor assumptions in light of ongoing weak demand and a challenging pricing environment. 

Impact

financial year 2009 promises to be a tale of two halves, with record fuel bills expected for VBA and QAN in first half 2009, although this is expected to do an about-turn in second half 2009 with jet fuel at multi-year lows. We do, however, expect oil prices to return to ~US$70 per barrel levels by financial year 2010, providing only short-term relief to the airlines from a cost perspective.

QAN's more effective fuel hedging structure allows it to participate significantly in falling oil prices, unlike VBA, who's economic gains are likely to be capped at US$80 per barrel due to the use of a collar strategy. It remains to be seen whether QAN will look to press home this advantage through more aggressive pricing, or pass these savings onto shareholders by protecting earnings - we expect the latter.

Ongoing capacity rationalisation from both carriers will be key to preserving operating margins in a lower demand environment. Load factors for the remainder of the year are expected to remain relatively stable, with second half 2009 seeing significant capacity reductions from QAN in particular. financial year 2010 earnings are likely to remain under pressure should demand not improve along with our expected increase in fuel prices.


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Glen48*:
> 
> "Latest opinion is OIL will go as low as $17 a B.?????..."




Whose opinion is that Glen?  Yours?  Or that female analyst, Crystal Ball.

Would be nice to see your source quoted so readers can make some assessment of its credibility.


----------



## Glen48

Sorry I read it in a report some where if I find it I will post it.
I appears there are ship all around the World full of Oil and it is not viable to send then to ports to unload. 
The $17.00 they claim is an over shoot.


----------



## Glen48

From Money & Markets:
I told you how 25 oil tankers had been turned into floating storage containers holding 50 million barrels of oil. Well, now the amount of oil stored on tankers has risen to a staggering 80 million barrels!
If oil closes below $33, I think it could go to $25. And if oil gets to $25, sheer momentum could carry it to $20. And if it gets to $20, then it could even test its long-term support ”” just above $17 ”” before finding a bottom.


----------



## Goldmann

Glen48 said:


> Sorry I read it in a report some where if I find it I will post it.
> I appears there are ship all around the World full of Oil and it is not viable to send then to ports to unload.
> The $17.00 they claim is an over shoot.




Im not sure you read the bloomberg report??? i would like to see where it says its not viable to send oil to ports to unload at $35 a barrel????

heres another theory around why this oil is sitting in tankers off shore.

"--This brings us to the third reason oil prices should rise later this year: the oil trade is back on. Sure, credit may still be a scarce commodity. But if you judge traders by their actions, you can see the market is setting up for a big oil back draft. As evidence, Bloomberg reports that, *"Morgan Stanley hired a super tanker to store crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, joining Citigroup Inc. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc in trying to profit from higher prices later in the year,* two shipbrokers said." 

--Our friend Dan Amoss back in America calls this the oil arbitrage trade, where supply is stockpiled offshore, and thus withheld from refiners, allowing existing gasoline inventories to be worked down. Then in six to twelve months time, when crude prices have moved higher, you simply park your ship at the terminal and cash in on the difference between what you paid six months ago (today) and the new market price. 

--It is normal for the oil futures to be in contango, where spot prices are lower than futures prices. What's less normal is the amount of oil being stockpiled offshore. "Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest owner of supertankers, said Jan. 14 about 80 million barrels of crude oil are being stored in tankers, the most in 20 years," Bloomberg ads. "


----------



## cwamit

one has to wonder if enough shipping is used up for storage that  might influence in itself for the price of oil to go up, far too big scale for my small brain to comprehend if thats possible...  cant cost oil tankers much just to sit and hold oil compared to transporting the stuff, got to be a few quid in it for the shipping company, maybe less seamen are needed (reminds me of a whale joke).


----------



## kitehigh

Pretty heavy sell off today down 14.4% to 1.335 on almost double the average daily volume.
  There may be good long term reasons to hold this stock but currently the chart is looking very sick.  Doesn't help either with the price of crude in the low 40's.

I will continue to sit on the side lines but keep a close on this stock for a entry position.


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> .......
> Not sure on this, but I think LNC has dropped out of top 200 so index funds would also be eliminating their positions.
> I bought at $1.89 months ago and sold this one out after it got $5 and  thought I was out too early. But I have just started to come back in and will average in over the next couple of months. I'm sure others will think $1.60 is better than $5 too and do the same.




LNC has not been dropped from the S&P/ASX200 index.  

Reference is 
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20081205IN_QrtlyRebal.pdf


----------



## xscape

Sold my holdings this morning with the intention to rebuy shortly thereafter at a lower price.  LNC now placed in pre-open.  I hope it is good news as I got back in just seconds beforehand.


----------



## Miner

xscape said:


> Sold my holdings this morning with the intention to rebuy shortly thereafter at a lower price.  LNC now placed in pre-open.  I hope it is good news as I got back in just seconds beforehand.




You may be lucky to get escaped Xscape.

LNC got a big fall and as previously I raised questions on their acquisition value on American gas company (posted in this forum before) 

The technology has definitely an excellent merit and going to be the call of the next decade as an emerging technology.

My observation is LNC however is a bit market saavy like FMG - provides lot of hopes with not comparative bone to support them. 

Attached price query from ASX

Disclaimer : I do not hold LNC but learning fast on CTG technology and about LNC as well


----------



## Goldmann

kitehigh said:


> Pretty heavy sell off today down 14.4% to 1.335 on almost double the average daily volume.
> There may be good long term reasons to hold this stock but currently the chart is looking very sick.  Doesn't help either with the price of crude in the low 40's.
> 
> I will continue to sit on the side lines but keep a close on this stock for a entry position.





wish i was on the sidelines, this ship appears to be sinking fast and you would have to question now whether or not this chinese deal will go through - the market obviously has it doubts...


----------



## kitehigh

LNC is getting mauled again today currently down 12.5% on strong volume, while the rest of the market is having a up day.  I read their standard to reply to the asx inquiry but ain't convinced by it.  Some information must be leaking out and causing the run for the exit doors.  Looks like I will continue staying on the side lines.  There doesn't seem to be any hurry to jump into this sinking ship.


----------



## glads262

Some thoughts on todays action.
Braking ticket issued - Peter mentions short sellers.
Huge number of sell orders then placed, and corresponding buy orders began popping up under the share price. I think there was some shorting today!!

Does anyone know an easy way of checking the current short position on a stock??


----------



## The Dealer

glads262 said:


> Some thoughts on todays action.
> Braking ticket issued - Peter mentions short sellers.
> Huge number of sell orders then placed, and corresponding buy orders began popping up under the share price. I think there was some shorting today!!
> 
> Does anyone know an easy way of checking the current short position on a stock??




http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

This is on the ASX website and shows the day before shorted stocks, how much stock was shorted and the % drop.
Link is being shorted big style! Has been for weeks.


----------



## Goldmann

LNC bounces back today for no reason??? Oil down - LNC up? 

have to think that some of the big players are manipulating this one to all hell!!!

P.Bond must be fuming.


----------



## basilio

Surely LINC has been oversold to blazes!  Regardless of whether the Teresa  deal comes through they still hold at least a billion dollars worth of asset in that tenement alone. They  have proven their  CTG/GTL technology and will be at the forefront of providing  diesel for a very tight fuel market in 2011.

And this doesn't include the other deals being developed around the world. 

It might have been a good play to short sell the shares recently but unless there is something seriously, radically wrong with the company that we are unaware of, the fundamentals indicate a very bright future.


----------



## basilio

Surely LINC has been oversold to blazes!  Regardless of whether the Teresa  deal comes through they still hold at least a billion dollars worth of asset in that tenement alone. They  have proven their  CTG/GTL technology and will be at the forefront of providing  diesel for a very tight fuel market in 2011.

And this doesn't include the other deals being developed around the world. 

It might have been a good play to short sell the shares recently but unless there is something seriously, radically wrong with the company that we are unaware of, the fundamentals indicate a very bright future.


----------



## Miner

Interestingly LNC has shot up about 10% or more today in ASX after few days down turn.

I missed to read  and share this section of the report published in  Eureka Report and part of it is reproduced here:

_*Linc’s troubled times *

By Madeleine Heffernan

*January 21, 2009 (*extracted from Eureka Report) (less than 10% of total report and complies Copyright rules. For further information please read the full report dated 21st Jan available only through subscription) 


PORTFOLIO POINT: A $1.5 billion deal with Xinwen Mining Group is taking longer than expected, casting a shadow over the coal-to-liquids sector. 
It was the best-performing small cap stock of 2008, rising 162% and pushing its chief executive on to the BRW Rich 200. But this year might be not so sweet for Linc Energy. 
After a bumper 2008, investors including chief executive and major shareholder Peter Bond have been selling stock in coal-to-liquids group Linc Energy. 
Starting the year at $2.03, Linc shares trading are now trading at $1.61 as doubt emerges over the company’s deal to sell some of its Queensland coal assets to Xinwen Mining Group of China for $1.5 billion. 

Having announced the deal in September, Linc disappointed investors late last month by saying that although it was “confident” it would complete the Xinwen sale, it appeared “unlikely” it would receive a $150 million deposit by the end of December. 

In a media release two days before Christmas, Linc said negotiations on the Xinwen deal had “progressed particularly well”, and it expected the sale would be completed in six to eight weeks. The same release announced Linc had raised $36 million in an institutional share placement. 

So is Xinwen trying to wriggle out of a deal whereby it would pay much more for the Emerald (Teresa) coal tenements than Linc's entire market cap? On Tuesday’s share price of $1.61, Linc was valued at $640 million. 

The oil analyst at Southern Cross Equities, Johan Hedstrom, says given the delays, it's fair enough for people to be sceptical. “In this market you’ve got to ask: why would the Chinese pay so much? So I think they are delaying it because they are having second thoughts about paying that much money.” (International gas prices have fallen roughly in line with oil.)_


DYOR : I do not hold LNC


----------



## DowJones

Goldmann said:


> LNC bounces back today for no reason??? Oil down - LNC up?
> 
> have to think that some of the big players are manipulating this one to all hell!!!
> 
> P.Bond must be fuming.




It could be some of the short sellers covering their positions for some profit taking.

Cannot believe how much this stock has slid in the last week.


----------



## light

LNC is in trading halt!

Just read the announcement and it's related to the article in the Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25009191-36418,00.html


----------



## justiceotp

Yes would be nice help soften the blow a lot of us have taken on this company waiting for the sales to go through.


----------



## Dezza

Here's the link to the article in the Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25009191-5005200,00.html.com

Ah, too slow with the post.  Link is already above.


----------



## Mickel

light said:


> LNC is in trading halt!
> 
> Just read the announcement and it's related to the article in the Australian.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25009191-36418,00.html




This is the request for the Trading Halt which has been granted until Monday 7 Feb-

Linc Energy Ltd - Request for Trading Halt
Linc Energy Ltd requests that the Australian Stock Exchange impose an immediate
trading halt over its securities.
The trading halt is requested pending an announcement to clarify comments reported
in an Australian newspaper article of today's date.
Linc Energy requests that the trading halt remain until the earlier of the time of the
announcement or the commencement of trading on Monday, 7th February 2009.
Linc Energy confirms that it is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should
not be granted.

Company Secretary.


----------



## Goldmann

This should come as no surprise... the market has factored this in... 

Peter Bond has been full of it since he missed the first deadline... stick him in the ramping lying ceo brigade.


----------



## Santoro

Why not just realise the news the sale is not proceeding (e.g. why the trading halt to clarify the obvious), all I would like to see is a sale to anyone in order to provide capital for the first commercial plant once this is done this stock should barrel along....


----------



## basilio

It would not be a surprise for the Xinwen deal to fall over. September 2008 is another universe from Feb 2009.  

And it shouldn't be a surprise that more thoughtful observers and perhaps those in the know have decided to take their money off the table in the past couple of weeks judging that there will either be a better buy in price later on or LINC won't cut it as a company.  (I really wish that had been me...)

But LINC still has the high quality coal in the ground, it still has a proven technology to turn low grade coal into oil at $28 a barrel *and there is no way on earth we are not facing a critical energy shortage in the near future.
*. 
_(We know that one of the big games in town at the moment is investors buying tanker loads of oil at the current price and having them meander around the ocean until the price rises. http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47965 Lightering our way to abundance) http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6239731.html_

The trick will be to finance the construction of the commercial plant at a best possible cost. In the current economic situation , if I was a State or Federal government leader and only half aware of the crunch that Peak Oil was bringing I would be at the front of a queue for a project that

1)  Constructively employed at least 1000 people for a couple of years
2)  Was a significant user of local steel resources
3)  Would help address a certain energy shortage and boost local supply
4)  Only required a government guarantee for the project to begin rather than actual cash. (There is no reason to believe the plant would not pay for itself as a commercial operation.)

Any other thoughts?


----------



## glads262

Re Comments:

No government in Australia will ever supply a guarantee on debt for a private startup company - no matter how much they will benefit the country.
I like your thinking though, this would be a FANTASTIC stimulus to the economy and cost nothing (govt could even charge LNC for the right to use the govt guarantee, perhaps 4-5% even? would net $50mil a year!!)

Unfortunately, the only thing that will help is in PB can get rid of the coal ASAP for at least a billion.
I don't think he should be focusing on maximising price at this stage, as it is more important to lock in the cash now and get the ball rolling(every months delay is costing a months profit at oil prices in 2 years time ie $80 oil price, $50 margin = 20000bpd*50 = $1mil per day lost profit, $30mil per month, cost since Sept $120mil??)

The announcement out Monday, after an extra weeks worth of negotiating (assuming PB has known about the collapse of the deal for at least a week) should HOPEFULLY include a statement that other buyers are interested and perhaps a price range and estimated time to completion. Otherwise the SP is stuffed...



1) Constructively employed at least 1000 people for a couple of years
2) Was a significant user of local steel resources
3) Would help address a certain energy shortage and boost local supply
4) Only required a government guarantee for the project to begin rather than actual cash. (There is no reason to believe the plant would not pay for itself as a commercial operation.)

Any other thoughts?


----------



## awg

If the situation is as I posted some time ago, re my own negs with Chinese businessmen.

The Chinese negotiators would never pay the asking price of the coal, when they may be able to snap up a big stake in the whole company for much less.

They can always re-bid for the coal.

Their tactics IMO, would be to allow Linc SP down as far as possible, and force PB to the table, on much less favorable terms.

that is what I would do anyway


----------



## gohawks

This whole thing has me baffled to be honest.

They request a trading halt, then come out with a statement that seems fairly (why not do it before requesting a halt?) trivial followed by a 10% drop in the share price, what is actually going on here?


----------



## select

I don't understand the train of thought that Linc is stuffed if they don't sell Teresa asap.

Unfortunately the sale of Teresa has become front and centre of most peoples thoughts but these same people seem to forget the very reason they invested in Linc in the first instance. What attracted us all to Linc was UCG but it's now these non core coal assets that everybody is getting their nickers in a knot over.

These non core assets have also become the focus of the media and the only people that benefit from such nonsense are the "shorters" and others with similar agendas. 

Maybe it's time to refocus our attention on the CORE business which is UCG. The funds from any non core asset sales are not immediately required and Linc have ample cash to begin their SA work and cover other capital requirements over the course of the next 12 months at least.

By all accounts the Chinchilla plant is producing 5bpd of higher than expected quality liquids and has been doing so non stop since commissioning. So maybe it's up to Linc now to get everybodies attention directed back towards UCG and what UCG means to Lincs future. 

These non core coal assets, if not sold, are still assets and have a value far greater than Lincs current market cap. The cash would be great NOW but that may not be possible. Or at the very least we could take a hair cut on the initial $1.5 billion offer and receive somewhere closer to $1 billion. That will do me just fine. But if all else fails, we still have a ****e load of coal that is very valuable and will become more valuable the further we progress into 2009.

Its been a rough few months to say the least.

Here's a message for Linc,

STOP TALKING TO THE MEDIA ABOUT NON CORE ASSETS AND START TALKING TO SHAREHOLDERS ABOUT UCG, AGAIN!!!! You have dropped the ball and allowed others to pick it up and take the conversation elsewhere. So refocus! Next week would be a good time to start.


----------



## Pigsy

Gohawks, my thoughts exactly. Why would you go into a trading halt based on a news article. Then respond to it, particularly at the end of the day and then open up for trading.  PB you were bated nicely by that one.


----------



## Miner

Pigsy said:


> Gohawks, my thoughts exactly. Why would you go into a trading halt based on a news article. Then respond to it, particularly at the end of the day and then open up for trading.  PB you were bated nicely by that one.




Pigsy

I tend to agree with your comment regarding media exposure.

I have observed PB loves to speak with media (sounds similar to Alan Bond - not related I hope, Andrew Forrest style) with less coherence to what market and share holders will infer  from his speech. 

If we follow his statements for last few months - a little done gets ballooned before the media and market. When he will learn that some times keeping mouth shut help to chew up the food than talking mouthful.  

His making reference on noncore assets was IMO totally out of context and since he is not immune like politicians - should have refrained to comment on that.

PB should also question how could media dare to publish something from his interview which affects market so much and requiring halt. Conservation of words is a must for all CEO specially those who are making *gas* from coal unlike those making metals from ore.

Technically LNC is such a wonderful project, rising concept (as many big companies are all doing their own research to move into CTG - sorry can not name due to confidentiality agreement) so LNC has a competitive advantage if used properly to the favour of LNC shareholders. 

Let us see the discounted surprise on Monday 

PS : I do not hold LNC . Surprisingly noticed that we are often forgetting to declare our interest on holding . But that is not my job


----------



## Mickel

select said:


> I don't understand the train of thought that Linc is stuffed if they don't sell Teresa asap.
> 
> Unfortunately the sale of Teresa has become front and centre of most peoples thoughts but these same people seem to forget the very reason they invested in Linc in the first instance. What attracted us all to Linc was UCG but it's now these non core coal assets that everybody is getting their nickers in a knot over.
> 
> These non core assets have also become the focus of the media and the only people that benefit from such nonsense are the "shorters" and others with similar agendas.
> 
> Maybe it's time to refocus our attention on the CORE business which is UCG. The funds from any non core asset sales are not immediately required and Linc have ample cash to begin their SA work and cover other capital requirements over the course of the next 12 months at least.
> 
> By all accounts the Chinchilla plant is producing 5bpd of higher than expected quality liquids and has been doing so non stop since commissioning. So maybe it's up to Linc now to get everybodies attention directed back towards UCG and what UCG means to Lincs future.
> 
> These non core coal assets, if not sold, are still assets and have a value far greater than Lincs current market cap. The cash would be great NOW but that may not be possible. Or at the very least we could take a hair cut on the initial $1.5 billion offer and receive somewhere closer to $1 billion. That will do me just fine. But if all else fails, we still have a ****e load of coal that is very valuable and will become more valuable the further we progress into 2009.
> 
> Its been a rough few months to say the least.
> 
> Here's a message for Linc,
> 
> STOP TALKING TO THE MEDIA ABOUT NON CORE ASSETS AND START TALKING TO SHAREHOLDERS ABOUT UCG, AGAIN!!!! You have dropped the ball and allowed others to pick it up and take the conversation elsewhere. So refocus! Next week would be a good time to start.




Agree with most of what you say, Select. But I know from visiting the Chinchilla site with other shareholders in Nov 08 that they haven't been producing diesel continuously since mid Oct.On our visit they had closed production for about 2 weeks to adjust some "piping issues". They may also have closed down over Christmas/New Year.
PB has said yesterday "As stated in its announcement of 23 December 2008, the Company is continuing to aggressively work towards completion of the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) tenements in February 2009 and will provide a further update to the market at the appropriate time."

Hopefully, he can announce a definate sale by the end of this month AND advise on timetable for commercial plant in Sth Aussie.

As previously stated, I am a holder.


----------



## select

Mickel said:


> Agree with most of what you say, Select. But I know from visiting the Chinchilla site with other shareholders in Nov 08 that they haven't been producing diesel continuously since mid Oct.On our visit they had closed production for about 2 weeks to adjust some "piping issues". They may also have closed down over Christmas/New Year.
> PB has said yesterday "As stated in its announcement of 23 December 2008, the Company is continuing to aggressively work towards completion of the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) tenements in February 2009 and will provide a further update to the market at the appropriate time."
> 
> Hopefully, he can announce a definate sale by the end of this month AND advise on timetable for commercial plant in Sth Aussie.
> 
> As previously stated, I am a holder.




I was a bit too liberal in my reference to liquids being produced non stop since commissioning.

They have been producing GAS from generator 3 non stop since commissioning and are producing 5 bpd of liquids from the GTL plant. I have no reason to doubt that they have stopped producing liquids on the odd occasion because they are continuing to make improvements to the mechanics of the GTL plant in order to improve its efficiency which would require shutting it down.

Currently they are developing generator 4 which will be the full scale panel that they will be using for commercial production.

Happy to hold


----------



## basilio

Significant jump in LNC shares ($1.22 - 1.37) after 12  pm today. I suggest it may have been a response to the BG offer for PES which is telling the market that energy resources are valuable - and in particular if they are low carbon emitters.

Or perhaps there is an even better reason?


----------



## TheAbyss

basilio said:


> Significant jump in LNC shares ($1.22 - 1.37) after 12  pm today. I suggest it may have been a response to the BG offer for PES which is telling the market that energy resources are valuable - and in particular if they are low carbon emitters.
> 
> Or perhaps there is an even better reason?




I would doubt that the BG - PES play had anything to do with the LNC SP as they are different technologies that do not lend themselves to collaboration. 

Unless some buyers today are confused as to how LNC intend to make their money.


----------



## enigmatic

Since friday when i picked this stock up it seems to have taken off a little, i was wondering if people believe this is got to do with the chinchilla asset sale being finalised possible in the not to distance future, or is there something else in the cards.

Or the last and the one with the highest probabilty is that I'm reading into these price flucuations to much and should be expecting another testing of support lower support levels in the near term.


----------



## Mickel

TheAbyss said:


> I would doubt that the BG - PES play had anything to do with the LNC SP as they are different technologies that do not lend themselves to collaboration.
> 
> Unless some buyers today are confused as to how LNC intend to make their money.




While they are different technologies, they both still extract gas from coal which is a valuable energy source. In my view the BG-Pes play is confirmation (and a reminder) that they are valuable. So I agree with you, Basilio.

Perhaps some readers of this thread have yet to read the Analyst Reports on the Linc website. Click on the "Investor Centre" tab and then "Analyst Reports" on the drop down menu to find them. They offer an opinion on how valuable the Linc GTL process is.

There was another rise in the SP today- $0.11 to $1.455 . Hope it continues.

I intend to hold for the long term.


----------



## TheAbyss

Mickel said:


> While they are different technologies, they both still extract gas from coal which is a valuable energy source. In my view the BG-Pes play is confirmation (and a reminder) that they are valuable. So I agree with you, Basilio.
> 
> Perhaps some readers of this thread have yet to read the Analyst Reports on the Linc website. Click on the "Investor Centre" tab and then "Analyst Reports" on the drop down menu to find them. They offer an opinion on how valuable the Linc GTL process is.
> 
> There was another rise in the SP today- $0.11 to $1.455 . Hope it continues.
> 
> I intend to hold for the long term.




The Qld Govt in their wisdom opted to award tenements to CSG and UCG companies on the same parcel. This has caused a lot of legal jockeying to lock down the land as only one technology can obtain the gas.

Given the lack of M&A activity for UCG plays i am of the view that the winner will be CSG not UCG. Purely my opinion and we all have one.

http://www.corrs.com.au/corrs/website/web.nsf/Content/Pub_ER_010803_Queenslands_New_Coal_seam_gas_regime_unveiled/$FILE/QLD%20coal%20seam%20gas%20regime%20unveiled.pdf


----------



## Mickel

P Bond stated this in part in his ASX announcement on 7 Aug 08 in response to Inaccuracies in an article in the "Australian" -

"In terms of the reference to incompatible industries as in one industry must
succeed at the expense of the other, this statement is also incorrect and
inaccurate. For example, the Queensland Gas Corporation (QGC) are
suggesting they are targeting 7255PJ of CSG for their future project/s. QGC
also admit that Linc Energy’s main site in Chinchilla contains only
approximately 32PJ (on a 2P basis) of CSG. If the entire 32PJ was removed
from that CSG total, the multi-billion dollar UCG industry Linc Energy is
proposing would have a minimal effect of less than 0.5% on QGC alone. Yet
in return, Linc Energy has the potential to create a minimum of approximately
210.000.000 barrels of oil (on the coal area that QGC admits to housing only
32PJ of CSM potential) over a 30 year period."

As far as I am aware, Linc's Chinchilla site is the only one that has overlapping mineral/petroleum exploration licences and even the overlapping area is small.

Is anyone aware of anything different ?


----------



## TheAbyss

Mickel said:


> P Bond stated this in part in his ASX announcement on 7 Aug 08 in response to Inaccuracies in an article in the "Australian" -
> 
> "In terms of the reference to incompatible industries as in one industry must
> succeed at the expense of the other, this statement is also incorrect and
> inaccurate. For example, the Queensland Gas Corporation (QGC) are
> suggesting they are targeting 7255PJ of CSG for their future project/s. QGC
> also admit that Linc Energy’s main site in Chinchilla *contains only
> approximately 32PJ (on a 2P basis) of CSG. *If the entire 32PJ was removed
> from that CSG total, the multi-billion dollar UCG industry Linc Energy is
> proposing would have a minimal effect of less than 0.5% on QGC alone. Yet
> in return, Linc Energy has the potential to create a minimum of approximately
> 210.000.000 barrels of oil (on the coal area that QGC admits to housing only
> 32PJ of CSM potential) over a 30 year period."
> 
> As far as I am aware, Linc's Chinchilla site is the only one that has overlapping mineral/petroleum exploration licences and even the overlapping area is small.
> 
> Is anyone aware of anything different ?




That would explain the lack of MA activity and the price of oil would cover the fall in the SP. UCG plays will follow the price of oil in all probability.


----------



## light

Well, I just want to draw everyone's attention back to LNC 

The Chinese New Year has finished for sometimes now, and to be honest things doesn't look too good for the sale of Teresa.  

IMO, the stock has been beaten badly in recent trades and may continue to suffer for the next few weeks (or even months).  But it also seems to have found some support around $1.20.   I believe given enough time, this stock will start to head up again because of its technology and overseas projects.


----------



## Goldmann

"As stated in its announcement of 23 December 2008, the Company is continuing to aggressively work towards completion of the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) tenements in February 2009 and will provide a further update to the market at the appropriate time."



any one else like me have serious doubts PBOND can secure a sale by end Feb... the market is doubting him...

And yep tend to agree if he hadnt pumped this up so much, the fact it didnt come off means that SP has been hammered...


----------



## The Dealer

Goldmann said:


> "As stated in its announcement of 23 December 2008, the Company is continuing to aggressively work towards completion of the sale of its Emerald (Teresa) tenements in February 2009 and will provide a further update to the market at the appropriate time."
> 
> 
> 
> any one else like me have serious doubts PBOND can secure a sale by end Feb... the market is doubting him...
> 
> And yep tend to agree if he hadnt pumped this up so much, the fact it didnt come off means that SP has been hammered...




I don't think he pumped it up too much at all!
The guy owns 74% of the company. I don't think he cares too much for some one who own 20000 shares! He is doing what needs to be done for him as someone who has alot on the line. His stake is $444,000,000. I think he knows what he is doing.
LNC was the best performer in 08 and not too many layman had even heard about it. It is only people who frequent these types of chat rooms who actually pump it up.
Just like every company at present, they are valued by the balance sheet right now. There is no future earnings built in. You have to make up your own mind about the future of any company or sector and it's ability to produce income in the future. 
I know I like it when Hillary Clinton is flying the globe talking up clean energy alternatives and says I don't need to visit Australia, they're in!
Just be patient on this one, just like people who are in a BHP or WPL they are down but not out.


----------



## Mickel

ASX Ann today by Carbon Energy-

"19th February 2009 ASX Announcement ASX: CNX Government Policy Delivers Certainty of Tenure for CNX

The Queensland Government yesterday announced a new policy in relation to overlapping tenements between Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Coal Seam Gas (CSG) producers that clarifies the issue of priority access to resources and provides a clear pathway for all parties to move to production.

The key outcome for Carbon Energy is that the policy provides priority and certainty of tenure for Carbon Energy for the resource contained within its existing Mineral Development Licence area (MDL 374).
Andrew Dash, Carbon Energy’s Managing Director commented on the recent policy decision by saying “This policy ends months of speculation as to the competing rights between UCG and CSG players. For Carbon Energy this means that we have exclusive rights to at least 224 million tonnes of coal (approximately 75% of our recently announced resource upgrade) contained within our MDL which is suitable for UCG.
Based on our recent trial results, which demonstrated we produce 20 GJ for each tonne of coal gasified, we have at least 4,480 PJ of energy in situ. We believe that by applying our world leading UCG syngas technology and panel design that in excess of 2,500 PJ of UCG syngas is recoverable.
This is a huge resource in gas industry terms and can support more than 6 world scale manufacturing plants for over 30 years. In addition, the northern half of our MDL is relatively unexplored and is prospective for coal suitable for UCG; consequently further exploration in this area is likely to add substantially to our resource availability in the future.
This policy decision will now enable us to execute our plans for the development of this resource with full confidence”.
The announcement also outlined the requirement that each UCG syngas trial project be subject to monitoring conditions, including meeting stringent environmental standards, by the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). “Such requirements exist now and as such were not unexpected. Indeed, we welcome the Government’s commitment to continued environmental monitoring as this goes to the heart of our process and is one of the key benefits our technology” said Mr Dash.

Carbon Energy believes it is prudent to follow appropriate review processes for all major projects, including UCG syngas projects. Carbon Energy’s technology and process is the result of rigorous scientific development by Australia’s premier research organisation over 10 years, the CSIRO, and Carbon Energy welcomes any appropriate review of its world leading technology."

I haven't been able to find this new policy statement as yet. It will also have implications for other UCG and CSG companies especially LNC.
Has anyone seen this new policy statement?

CNX currently up 3c to 30c and LNC up 4.5c to $1.245


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> I don't think he pumped it up too much at all!
> The guy owns 74% of the company. I don't think he cares too much for some one who own 20000 shares! He is doing what needs to be done for him as someone who has alot on the line. His stake is $444,000,000. I think he knows what he is doing.
> LNC was the best performer in 08 and not too many layman had even heard about it. It is only people who frequent these types of chat rooms who actually pump it up.
> Just like every company at present, they are valued by the balance sheet right now. There is no future earnings built in. You have to make up your own mind about the future of any company or sector and it's ability to produce income in the future.
> I know I like it when Hillary Clinton is flying the globe talking up clean energy alternatives and says I don't need to visit Australia, they're in!
> Just be patient on this one, just like people who are in a BHP or WPL they are down but not out.




Dealer, I agree with you. However P Bond's shareholding as per his last disclosure is as follows with total shares issued approx 412 million-

"Appendix 3Y
Change of Director's Interest Notice


name of entity Linc Energy Ltd

We (the entity) give ASX the following information under listing rule 3.19A.2 and as agent for the director for the purposes of section 205G of the Corporations Act.
Name of Director Peter Adam Bond
Date of last notice 13/11/2008
Part I - Change of director's relevant interests in securities
In the case ofa trust, this includes interesls in the trust made available by the responsible entity ofthe trust

Direct or indirect interest -Indirect
Nature of indirect interest
(including registered holder)

The registered holder of the securities is

Newtron Pty Ltd. Peter Bond is a director and shareholder of Newtron Pty Ltd.
Date of change 19/11/2008, 20/11/2008 and 21/11/2008
No. of securities held prior to change *201,406,383* ordinary shares - indirect
Class Ordinary shares
Number acquired Nil
Number disposed 482,479 ordinary shares
Value/Consideration
Note: Ifconsideration is non-cash, provÃ¬de details and estirnated valuation
$2.87 per share
No. of securities held after change* 200,923,904* ordinary shares - indirect
Nature of change

On-market trade"

So, he currently holds just under 50% of the company.


----------



## light

Mickel said:


> I haven't been able to find this new policy statement as yet. It will also have implications for other UCG and CSG companies especially LNC.
> Has anyone seen this new policy statement?




I also have not found the official policy statement, but found this from Bloomberg instead.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=asqODoWC8dWo&refer=australia

It's basically saying that in the case of existing exploration licenses where there are overlapping claims, preference will be given to the coal-seam gas industry, and in areas where there aren’t existing licenses, the underground coal gasification industry will take preference.


----------



## The Dealer

So does this mean that LNC may have LNG as well?????
What a shock this may be. 
Suppose BG isn't offering all this money to companies in the area for no reason.


----------



## mexican

The Dealer said:


> So does this mean that LNC may have LNG as well?????
> What a shock this may be.
> Suppose BG isn't offering all this money to companies in the area for no reason.




Have a look at LNC's tenements, it will give you a good idea on what they are sitting on.
The Gallilee basin the poorer cousin of the Bowen basin is going to be the next big thing for thermal and gas so the experts say!


----------



## Santoro

Good to see the government make a decision....takes time but eventually someone has to make it.

Concern here is not coal reserves but getting some capital to move forward, the sooner PB can organise a sale of the Teresa tenements the better......even at a discount. 

The sooner Linc starts a 20,000 bopd facility the better....would time nicely with a global recovery.....


----------



## glads262

*End of the month tomorrow...*

Well, end of the month tomorrow. The SP is in the same trading range as the market - sideways. What happened to the short sellers? Too scared to short now?

I would envisage some sort of announcement from the company shortly as last indication was that there should be a transaction by the end of this month ish. 

There seems to be an EASY flow of cash from China, mostly to SECURE rights to commodities. What would be EASIER than buying 100% of a massive coal reserve which they know they need in the next 3-5 years?? I read today, that China's total stimulus could end up easily being $1trillion AUD?


----------



## xscape

The shorters are still shorting, perhaps not as heavily.  Around about 20% of all trades almost every day have been reported shorts.


----------



## Go Nuke

Hmmm not really sideways looking to me.

I think it would need to break this down trend with some volume before buying in....just my opinion


----------



## Mickel

xscape said:


> The shorters are still shorting, perhaps not as heavily.  Around about 20% of all trades almost every day have been reported shorts.




Since LNC's announcement on 5/2 there have been only 3 days when more than 20% of shares traded were shorted and 3 days (incl 5/2) when none were shorted. The average for 15 days from 5/2 to 25/2 incl is 11.73%.

Info from - https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...lectionID=68&SortField=dInDate&SortOrder=Desc

IMHO the announcement on 5/2 made clear that Linc MAY not get $1.5B on the sale of Teresa (or sell to the Chinese), and together with some positive news, hopefully in the next week or so, the short sellers are getting cold feet. I hope they freeze!

I continue to hold for the long term.


----------



## light

A huge drop for LNC today 

It has just fallen to $0.975 earlier, and it's currently trading at $1.00 (11:57am Sydney time)

Looks like the market is becoming more and more impatient amid the current financial crisis...


----------



## gohawks

Jeeze Linc absolutely hammered today, dropping below $1 and bouncing around that mark. Not looking good for any of us holding them at present. 


Just noticed your post above light we almost posted that one simultaneously.


----------



## light

Yeah gohawks, and I am sure we both feel the same way about the drop in price today 

But I think I will continue to hold for the long term (hope my decision is right.. otherwise my wife will probably give me some hard time  ).


----------



## basilio

Doesn't look good does it? But what has actually changed in a day or a week? The market and most of the forum members have discounted the immediate Teresa sale, we know the current economy is RS.

LINC is financially stable (at least for the next 12 months) and is proving technology to address a *certain* critical problem - shortages of  oil based products. Does the phrase "a great buying opportunity" ring a bell? 

(Trouble is I have had ringing in my ears since about $2.80)


----------



## Glen48

Close shift the decimal point to .28 and buy. One day the World is going to need Fuel but like the Gold prices not for awhile it seems.


----------



## glads262

RIGHT - WHERE IS THE LEAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LNC has been trading sideways to down for the last 3 weeks or so (mostly down...)

Today, with high volume, the SP tanks by 15%. Whats going on you ask??

Well, PB & co have leaked their announcement to the market AGAIN. (announced when market closed that Teresa sale SHOULD happen in the next 2-3 weeks)

Now that that is out of my system...

It seems that the language in the announcement has changed tack again. Not sure what message PB is trying to put out there. First they say the chinese are buying, then there are a whole host of delays (whilst $30-40 billion changes hands elsewhere) then, they are looking at a large range of buyers, now its only the chinese again - with meetings being held left right and centre.

Positive?? the meetings are at a critical juncture. I guess this basically means, yes they want it - but they are squeezing every bit of price out of LNC that they can. they know they are desparate to sell!!


----------



## Mickel

glads262 said:


> Positive?? the meetings are at a critical juncture. I guess this basically means, yes they want it - but they are squeezing every bit of price out of LNC that they can. they know they are desparate to sell!!




Agree generally with your comment, Glads. 

On a positive note, Linc has stated that they will again report to the market, at the latest, on 23 Mar. This will eliminate the uncertainty that has prevailed since the end of February.

It will be interesting to see if there was much short selling today. I suspect there was.

I also agree with a previous post that it is an excellent buying opportunity.

I continue to hold.


----------



## Mickel

LNC has a good kick along today- currently up $0.215 to $1.215 with a high of $1.245.

No listing yet of yesterday's short selling details.


----------



## Nero64

Go Linc!

Unfortunatlely it has to go up another $1 for me to get my money back. 

Only a takeover would give it such a lift in this environment. 

I want to ask members out there. 

I bought Linc at low $2 mark. If it did get up there in the next 6 months would you sell and hope it dropped to a lower level or would you hold for the long term and do dollar cost averaging. 

Personally I would get out and put it in a blue chip. Maybe revisit it in the future. 

To be honest it wasn't such a good buy. I bought it back on Nov 24th when the market just rallied the day before with BHP lifting the market. LNC bounced  30-40c and I was in $500-600 profit. It even got up to 2.79 one day in a spike before reversing. Then of course it fell so quickly I didn't even have time to set a break even stop loss. 

Alas poor Yorick!


----------



## Glen48

From what I see any time there is some sort of profit take because you can bet in a few hours it will be GORN.


----------



## Goldmann

I think most people are in this for the long term.. see the potential... not surprised they have been hammered considering the major jump on them was potential based... typical sell the fact when they proved thier process works...

then all attention has been on the coal sale... i still think PBOND called it pretty early in publicising it... but i spose the signing of the heads of agreement forced him into releasing news to the market... the credit crisis happened at the wrong time for that one... gee it goes through a year ago and its happy days!!! LNC with more money in the bank that market cap haha

anyone see the release from the broker that valued LNC at around $25 on their coal tenements alone... 

http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/738620/Merriman Curhan Ford Report - March 4 2009.pdf


----------



## Mickel

Nero64 said:


> Go Linc!
> 
> Unfortunatlely it has to go up another $1 for me to get my money back.
> 
> Only a takeover would give it such a lift in this environment.
> 
> I want to ask members out there.
> 
> I bought Linc at low $2 mark. If it did get up there in the next 6 months would you sell and hope it dropped to a lower level or would you hold for the long term and do dollar cost averaging.
> 
> Personally I would get out and put it in a blue chip. Maybe revisit it in the future.
> 
> To be honest it wasn't such a good buy. I bought it back on Nov 24th when the market just rallied the day before with BHP lifting the market. LNC bounced  30-40c and I was in $500-600 profit. It even got up to 2.79 one day in a spike before reversing. Then of course it fell so quickly I didn't even have time to set a break even stop loss.
> 
> Alas poor Yorick!




When and if LNC announces a confirmed sale of "Teresa" for any amount above $800m the share price should jump to at least $3 IMHO. 

Apart from the value of approx $2 per share, more importantly, it will give LNC the funds to build its first 20,000 bopd GTL plant with an ability to earn  approx $600m profit per year when fully operational.

In 3-5 years LNC could well be a "blue chip". I will not be selling.

Nero, make sure you know Linc. I sense a different outcome to that of Yorick.

LNC finished up $0.23 to $1.23 today. Oil price rise would account for some of that IMO.


----------



## Mickel

Goldmann said:


> I think most people are in this for the long term.. see the potential... not surprised they have been hammered considering the major jump on them was potential based... typical sell the fact when they proved thier process works...
> 
> then all attention has been on the coal sale... i still think PBOND called it pretty early in publicising it... but i spose the signing of the heads of agreement forced him into releasing news to the market... the credit crisis happened at the wrong time for that one... gee it goes through a year ago and its happy days!!! LNC with more money in the bank that market cap haha
> 
> anyone see the release from the broker that valued LNC at around $25 on their coal tenements alone...
> 
> http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/738620/Merriman Curhan Ford Report - March 4 2009.pdf




Goldmann, The valuation -

"MERRIMAN CURHAN FORD
March 4, 2009 6
Next-Generation Energy
Linc Energy Ltd. (LNCGY) Buy
Valuation Commentary
At this time we are switching our valuation over to be more fully based on the assets from our previous
method of using a sum of the parts with a DCF for liquid fuel sales, and looking at the sale value of the
Theresa coal tenements. We think this is prudent given tightening margins on liquid fuels production (driven
by weak oil pricing), and the more limited value assigned to out-year revenues in this market. We strongly
believe in the fundamental story of liquid fuels production leveraging UCG, and believe oil will eventually re
bound, making the $28 per barrel cost small relative to the sale price, but for now, we feel it is prudent to
focus on the assets which are real and tangible today.
We are valuing Linc shares based on its proven assets and our estimates of the value of the underlying coal
reserves to prospective buyers. We value the Theresa tenements as noted earlier in this report and have assigned
a conservative value to the company’s coal assets, which we believe are immediately mineable, arriving
at our price target of $26.50-30.50.
Today we are valuing the company based upon only a small portion of its coal assets (announce resources in
Emerald, Chinchilla, Pentland, and Arckaringa Basin) and are leaving the underlying value in its synthetic
fuels production as future upside. In addition, although it remains very promising, we have yet to incorporate
any potential value from U.S. or other international agreements/operations. Given the small fraction of the
total coal tenements we have included in this valuation, we believe there is significant opportunity for additional
upside, not withstanding a range of other opportunities the company is pursuing.
We are transitioning coverage of LNCGY shares with a Buy rating."

is from a US analyst and is in USD for LNCGY which is equivalent of 10 LNC shares.

So USD 26.50 @.64 = AUD41.40 = $4.14 per LNC share
    USD 30.50 @ .64= AUD47.66 = $4.76 per LNC share

which is still up to 400% of today's closing price. 

As previously stated- A great buying opportunity.


----------



## Smurf1976

The Dealer said:


> So does this mean that LNC may have LNG as well?????
> What a shock this may be.
> Suppose BG isn't offering all this money to companies in the area for no reason.



LNG is simply natural gas (either coal seam gas or natural gas from conventional gas fields) processed to become a liquid, thus making international transport more practical.

So any company that has natural gas can produce LNG. The economics however require that the gas resource is large enough to sustain a decent sized plant since, as with most things, small scale would mean a higher cost per unit of production.

Alternatives to producing LNG are either sell the gas as is into a pipeline network or directly to some large end user (factory, power station etc). Or alternatively, build a gas-fired power station on site and sell electricity into the grid or to a large end user (a mine, for example).

Whether it is most profitable to sell it as gas, LNG or electricity will depend on the scale and location of the resource and its proximity to existing gas pipelines, electricity transmission lines, the coast (for an LNG plant) or a large gas / electricity user. Which is the way to go is very site specific.

If you found gas near another company's gas reserves then you'd likely come to some arrangement with them and end up putting it to the same use as the other company is doing. For example, you could have several companies all with modest gas reserves building a single LNG plant to process the whole lot, thus achieving scale of economy benefits for all involved.


----------



## ColB

> *Originally posted by Basillio*
> 
> Doesn't look good does it? But what has actually changed in a day or a week? The market and most of the forum members have discounted the immediate Teresa sale, we know the current economy is RS.
> 
> LINC is financially stable (at least for the next 12 months) and is proving technology to address a certain critical problem - shortages of oil based products. Does the phrase "a great buying opportunity" ring a bell?
> 
> (Trouble is I have had ringing in my ears since about $2.80)




I share your pain Baz but like you I am in for the long haul.  I sold a third of my position in the high $4's but still hold a large parcel which is worth well under half what I paid.

It's not only the Teresa sale that will propel the price forward from its extreme low at the moment.  

I saw this article today which is also promising for LNC's recent GasTech Wyoming purchase.

*Indiana has promising sites for underground coal ‘gasification’ plants*

By Emil Venere, Purdue University News Service - Posted March 4, 2009

"...A pilot plant is planned in Wyoming, with Australia-based Linc Energy Ltd. expected to break ground in the fourth quarter of 2009. The company aims to produce a minimum of 40,000 barrels per day of diesel and jet fuel from its initial commercial operations..."

For full article refer:

http://www.lafayette-online.com/bus...romising-sites-underground-coal-gasification/


----------



## mexican

Good to see some of you being positive again! 
PB was getting a flogging there for a while!
In two weeks lets hope LNC send those BEARS back into the woods


----------



## Nero64

Did you guys receive forms to submit bank and TFN details after buying shares. 

Does this mean they may pay a dividend in the future?


----------



## Miner

Nero64 said:


> Did you guys receive forms to submit bank and TFN details after buying shares.
> 
> Does this mean they may pay a dividend in the future?




Nero 64 
I do not want to pour water on your burning wishes.

I believe it is normal ritual to ask for your TFN and Bank details when you become a holder. 

But who knows LNC may declare a dividend and let us wish that be right

DNH


----------



## basilio

$1.00 TO $1.49 IN two trading days...You have to wonder whether the bell is well and truly being rung.


----------



## Goldmann

LNC just hit 1.70...  39% up for the day!!! just need to hold, but its still climbing.. sellers are being eradicated.

finally the gate is open!!! bought another little parcel on PBONDs first news release last thursday at 1.205! finally something has swung my way in this horrible market!!!

hopefully a sale announcement on theresa in the next week or two, then its back north for this one!!! 

the shorters would of been smashed today in this run!!!


----------



## YELNATS

basilio said:


> $1.00 TO $1.49 IN two trading days...You have to wonder whether the bell is well and truly being rung.





Now as high as $1.74. Looks like the market really liked the ann after cob last friday, although it opened only slightly higher.


----------



## Nero64

From a intraday low of .975 last Wednesday to a high of 1.79 today. An increase of more than 83.6%. 

I hope somebody got onto it. 

Only if I had some spare cash in the bank


----------



## YELNATS

Now retracing somewhat to about $1.60, may even go lower. But it has demonstrated what it can do and lower prices could be a chance to top up again.


----------



## Go Nuke

Couldn't you attribute today spike as shorter covering?

Though to be positive I'd like to think its the end of the down trend and atleast buying the rumour on the Chinese deal going through in the next couple of weeks.

Dunno what will come after that though.


----------



## basilio

> Though to be positive I'd like to think its the end of the down trend and at least buying the rumour on the Chinese deal going through in the next couple of weeks.
> 
> Dunno what will come after that though.




If the Chinese deal came through with anything over $800m in the present economic climate LINC and its shareholders would have to be laughing. 

I believe $800m plus (let alone the hoped for $1.5 billion) would totally fund one coal to diesel plant and at the very least add $2.00 a share to the bottom line. And oil cannot stay as low as it is for much longer. OPEC and  shrinking oil fields will take care of that.


----------



## Santoro

glads262 said:


> RIGHT - WHERE IS THE LEAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> LNC has been trading sideways to down for the last 3 weeks or so (mostly down...)
> 
> Today, with high volume, the SP tanks by 15%. Whats going on you ask??
> 
> Well, PB & co have leaked their announcement to the market AGAIN. (announced when market closed that Teresa sale SHOULD happen in the next 2-3 weeks)




COuld this be a result of insider trading? Who knows but I am just trying to indicate that it can occur on a significant fall or rise...


----------



## grace

Santoro said:


> COuld this be a result of insider trading? Who knows but I am just trying to indicate that it can occur on a significant fall or rise...




Well,it is funny, at the beginning this stock never leaked anything before announcements.  Now, it seems, there is always a busted pipe before announcements.


----------



## Mickel

For the record, LNC finished up 46.5c to $1.69 today.

I tried to buy some more last Thursday, and put in an order before the market opened for $1.06, but in the 10 mins before the market opened the price jumped from $1.06 to $1.15 and I missed out. 

However, I am still happy to see the price jump rapidly.


----------



## Mickel

Congratulations Mexican, on leading the March Tipping Competition.

A *good* announcement before the end of the month (highly likely) should see you collect the bikkies.


----------



## select

I think some people are being ureasonable with their thoughts about Linc leaking information. The trading ahead of the news on the 4th and 6th certainly doesn't suggest any unusual trading. To me at least. I would be interested to know what others saw that I didn't.

Lets not underestimate the power of uncertainty. Linc have provided the market with 3 significant updates in the space of 1 week which will have gone a long way to easing much of the uncertainty regarding Chinchilla, UCG and to a lesser extent, Teresa.

Queensland also has an election later in the month and it looks like the Libs could sneak over the line. Currently they are ahead 51% to 49%. If the Libs do win we may see a reversal of fortune for the nearer term fortunes of UCG in Queensland. Just a thought.

But overall it is business as usual at Linc and thats worth every cent of the gain we have seen in the past few days.


----------



## glads262

Hi Select,

I was commenting on the specific volume increase, and large share price movements 24 hours before announcements. Announcement about March 23 date for Teresa sale as an example - the stock had been trading flat to down on thin volumes for 2 weeks, and all of a sudden the stock surges on high volume within hours of the announcement.
Suggests a leak in the company to me (someone is trading these announcements before they are announced to ASX)

Cheers.


----------



## glads262

*Re: BBY valuation in December*

I have just re-read this valuation (as I do every month or so to refresh my memory) and would just like to comment on this. We have all been very caught up in the SP decline of late, and the Teresa sale (which is very important by the way...)

At AUD $90 per bbl (VERY close to what oil is trading for now) BBY value LNC at $14 per share. This is with ONE 20000 bbl/day facility operating. Total upfront cost required - $900million odd.

Hopefully, funding for this will come from teresa/pentland sales. 

Therefore, if LNC can come up with 1.8billion (Teresa/pentland sales, plus a few hundred million from other tenement sales??, possibly borrowings??), they could build 2. Theoretical BBY value = approx $28 per share.

This does not include that LINC diesel retails for $10-$15 higher than oil price. 

If many of you believe (as I do,) that oil price will probably be closer to AUD$270 a barrel in 2 years time, BBY value based on two 20000 facilities is $84 per share.

Don't forget - currently LINC COULD build 5 facilities in SA, 1 in QLD, perhaps 4 in the USA based on their current tenements- if only it was easy to come up with the $9 billion upfront capital needed.

Based on only building two facilities in the next 5 years, and a higher oil price - I would be happy with $84 bucks a share.

This just puts some perspective on the Teresa sale/SP decline of the past few months.

THINK LONG TERM!!!!

Discl - I hold LNC.


----------



## select

glads262 said:


> Hi Select,
> 
> I was commenting on the specific volume increase, and large share price movements 24 hours before announcements. Announcement about March 23 date for Teresa sale as an example - the stock had been trading flat to down on thin volumes for 2 weeks, and all of a sudden the stock surges on high volume within hours of the announcement.
> Suggests a leak in the company to me (someone is trading these announcements before they are announced to ASX)
> 
> Cheers.




Hi Glads,

Linc announced the Teresa sale update at 4.20pm on March 4. On this day, Linc closed DOWN 14c to $1 on volume of 1.2 million.

On March 5, Linc closed UP 23c to $1.23 on volume of 1.5 million.

They then announced a company update at 5.22pm on March 6. On this day, Linc closed DOWN 0.5c to $1.225 on volume of 780,000.

On March 9, Linc closed UP 46.5c on volume of 3.1 million.

I have no doubt that someone always knows something with all stocks on the market but Linc looks pretty tight to me.

I'm not having a crack at anybody in particular, just the notion that Linc leaks.


----------



## Mickel

*Re: BBY valuation in December*



glads262 said:


> At AUD $90 per bbl (VERY close to what oil is trading for now) BBY value LNC at $14 per share. This is with ONE 20000 bbl/day facility operating. Total upfront cost required - $900million odd.
> 
> Hopefully, funding for this will come from teresa/pentland sales.
> 
> Therefore, if LNC can come up with 1.8billion (Teresa/pentland sales, plus a few hundred million from other tenement sales??, possibly borrowings??), they could build 2. Theoretical BBY value = approx $28 per share.
> 
> This does not include that LINC diesel retails for $10-$15 higher than oil price.
> 
> If many of you believe (as I do,) that oil price will probably be closer to AUD$270 a barrel in 2 years time, BBY value based on two 20000 facilities is $84 per share.




While it is very difficult to predict the oil price in AUD in 2 year's time, I don't think many of us are considering AUD 270 to be within our price range.

Currently, with AUD/USD rate at .64 and oil at approx USD 45, that equates to AUD 70.31.

BBY in their Dec 08 valuation used an exchange rate of .80. Given the current rate of .64, a range of .65 to .80 for 2011 would seem reasonable.

BBY also uses an oil price per barrel of USD 75. Given last year's peak price of USD 147 approx and the current price of USD 45, a range of USD 65 to USD 130 would also seem reasonable.

Therefore, we have the following ranges of AUD price per barrel of oil (ignoring the premium for LINC'S diesel)-

Exchange Rate---      USD price per b  ---        AUD price per b

.65-------  -------------           65    ------  ------------      100
.80------- --------------            65    ------ -------------       81.25
.65 ------ -------------            130    ------ -------------     200
.80  ----- -------------             130   ------ -------------      162.5

So, in my view, we have a range of AUD 81.25 to 200.

Within this range LNC will still have a very profitable operation.

As previously stated, I will be a long term holder of the stock.


----------



## mexican

Mickel said:


> Congratulations Mexican, on leading the March Tipping Competition.
> 
> A *good* announcement before the end of the month (highly likely) should see you collect the bikkies.




Yes it is looking good. Noticed Grace left Linc out this month, so I could finally get in. Thanks Grace!
Don't forget guy's, Linc has a very bright future overseas. The US and China should be the big ones you would think.


----------



## gohawks

Pretty huge end to the day for LNC. Up 15% overall with most of it seeming to come in the last hour of the day, again! Any ideas why?


----------



## Glen48

LNC went up:
Every one got out of Gold????
Looks like every thing is run by mad punters.The boss of Citi bank announced profits were up so the Dow shoots up 30%...toss a coin and decide.


----------



## ColB

> *Originally posted by GOHAWKS*
> 
> Pretty huge end to the day for LNC. Up 15% overall with most of it seeming to come in the last hour of the day, again! Any ideas why?




Might be due to an announcement just around the corner with LINC notifying the market of the sale of their Teresa Coal Tenements for $800 million PLUS.

Might be accumulation by wise investors

Might be because it was absolutely hammered and oversold in the last few months.

Might be because their technology, once oil is back above $80 per barrel in twelve months or so and they have GTL plants in the US and Sth Aust just for starters will make their shareholders substantial profits.

And then maybe Wall Street will drop 170 points overnight and LNC will retreat 10%

Rather bullish end to the days trading though and would predict a solid start for LNC tomorrow!


----------



## Nero64

Hey do any of you get the Daily Reckoning newsletter. In yesterday's edition there was this brief excerpt regarding the pocket change punts report:



> 130 meters beneath the surface of Chinchilla, west of Brisbane, hides a "dirty" secret that could shape Australia's energy future and make a few early punters like you very rich, very quick...
> 
> Deep underground, one small firm - 'unofficially' sanctioned by the Australian government - has discovered a way to turn Australia's abundant, dirty coal reserves into 100% usable diesel fuel!
> 
> It gets better: this 'coal diesel' is 40% cleaner than regular diesel - with less carbon, sulphur, mercury and particulate emissions... 10% lighter than conventional diesel - meaning better efficiency and cheaper transport costs... can be used in standard diesel cars, trucks and even planes with no modification required... and costs just US$24 per barrel to produce - less than a quarter of the cost of an unrefined barrel of crude oil!
> 
> And better still: this small Aussie belter of a firm has already perfected this process... they're about to bring over 20,000 barrels a day of this revolutionary new fuel to market!
> 
> The Surat Basin News reported in March this year that this "will soon reverberate in the energy markets of the world." The Australian says it's: "a project that could dramatically change Australia's energy future." The Brisbane Times said it could help to: "generate up to $600 million for the Queensland economy each year."
> 
> At just $2.45 this firm's share price looks CRIMINALLY undervalued at the moment... but it presents you with a once-in-a-lifetime chance to jump in on the ground floor before someone breaks the story!




This sounds like Linc energy to me when it was trading around that range 3 months ago. 

What do you think?


----------



## grace

Nero64 said:


> Hey do any of you get the Daily Reckoning newsletter. In yesterday's edition there was this brief excerpt regarding the pocket change punts report:
> 
> 
> 
> This sounds like Linc energy to me when it was trading around that range 3 months ago.
> 
> What do you think?




Yes I do read the Daily Reckoning.  They have been pushing linc for at least a year I think.  A quick google and you can work out them and Fat Prophets quite easily.  So I wonder why they keep putting it there.


----------



## glads262

*A comment regarding short sellers*

Hi All,

I reckon the SP action over the past few months is a classic case of what short selling does to a SP.

The SP has been short sold to buggery, which has forced down the SP to an unrealistic level. This is okay, if it turns out the stock is a dog (ie ABS or BNB).

What happens if the stock is not a dog??

Well, I reckon at the moment, pre Teresa sale, $2 bucks a share is a pretty appropriate value in todays pessimistic sharemarket. Lets value LNC based on the next twelve months only (short term view due to pessimism)
Teresa sale net $1.5billion?? Not if your pessimistic. Lets assume $800mill, this would work out to about $2 bucks a share CASH. 

So after the short sellers are done (SP at about $1), the bargain hunters move in saying "if they sell Teresa for $800m, it should be worth $2. As the SP moves up, the short sellers are caught out, so it moves quickly with short covering.
And, no short seller is going to want to be short at the end of the day, when the Teresa sale is announced - hence all the movement at the end of the day.

Thats my reckoning anyway...

Anything over $800mil, and the SP could rocket with all the short sellers cleaned out - and perhaps some institutions moving onto the register? (LNC is ASX 200, and does not have big institutional shareholding because at the moment they are still "speculative penny stock" according to fund managers. They will wait for the proof that profit is on the way...)


----------



## Nero64

What are other holders doing here. A breakout could be evident over $2 and then first hurdle around $2.26. I have been starved for cash so couldn't get the upside since Monday. Not sure if to jump in or wait for confirmation of the proposed sale.

Yesterday's price moveiment reveals a blow of candle just under $2. 

Support is back down to $1.55 roughly. 

The share run seems to bullish in the current circumstances. 

Has the Teresa sale already been factored in?

Is it buy the rumour and sell the fact?

Will there even be a sale or is PB bluffing us again?

Anybody else who has not bought in looking to buy today?


----------



## gohawks

Nero64 said:


> What are other holders doing here. A breakout could be evident over $2 and then first hurdle around $2.26. I have been starved for cash so couldn't get the upside since Monday. Not sure if to jump in or wait for confirmation of the proposed sale.
> 
> Yesterday's price moveiment reveals a blow of candle just under $2.
> 
> Support is back down to $1.55 roughly.
> 
> The share run seems to bullish in the current circumstances.
> 
> Has the Teresa sale already been factored in?
> 
> Is it buy the rumour and sell the fact?
> 
> Will there even be a sale or is PB bluffing us again?
> 
> Anybody else who has not bought in looking to buy today?




Very, very tempted at today's low of 1.610. Guess the drop was due to the Half yearly report. Not much shocking news in the report so a pretty fickle drop IMO.


----------



## Nero64

Yeah I was watching it roughly around 11.00pm. I saw the day low listed at 1.61. At the time it was 1.645 or something. I set a buy order to 1.60 feeling a retest of support or lower prices. No cigar. The range today was 31c. A few people got caught at 1.92 then saw it drop 30c 

I also reckon people were buying the safe big stocks today and some beaten down mid caps and forgot about the ones that have achieved quick gains recently.


----------



## glads262

*Is confidence back?*

LNC up 10% today at $1.90. Seems to be okay volume. 

Is the market more confident of a positive announcement at the end of this week? Are people creeping into the stock in anticipation?

Anyone out there trading?


----------



## enigmatic

Is the recent price rise due to the current market conditions or are investors starting to see the possiblity the deal will go through and LNC will come end March with a possible 1.5billion dollars minus tax and what not.

The spare cash will definitely be worth a whole lot in the current market.


----------



## korrupt_1

Probably because of the fact that oil has hit a 3 month high... 

_Highest Since December

Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.81, or 3.8 percent, to $49.16 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Dec. 1. Futures touched $49.82, the highest intraday price since Jan. 6. Prices have increased 10 percent so far this year. _
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atjt1jiU8GCk&refer=home​


----------



## Mickel

InvestorLINC Issue 11 dated March 2009 received.

CEO Peter Bond says in part-

"The executive team at Linc Energy have the Emerald coal asset sale set very high on the agenda and negotiations continue to progress with a number of interested parties, including groups from China. I do thank you for your patience with this sale and I am hopeful that you can appreciate the complications which have arisen during the course of these negotiations since the world market meltdown. That said, I feel progress is being made in the right direction."

LNC finished down 3c at $1.83 today.

Hopefully, we won't have to wait too much longer for some good news.


----------



## enigmatic

Apparently no later then the 23rd of March if I recall correctly.
My assumption is that they will wait that long.


----------



## Santoro

Here is an from a recent ABN News Wire date the 10/03/09 not discussed in recent times,



> Work continues to progress on the Vietnam UCG trial project which is as previously announced a collaboration between VINACOMIN (Vietnamese State Owned Corporation), Marubeni Coal Pty Ltd (Japanese Private Equity Company) and Linc Energy. The site for the trial has now been selected and is approximately 60 kilometres southeast of Hanoi within the Red River Delta, with easy access to a region that is increasingly energy hungry.
> 
> Talks to finalise the ultimate contractual details and commencement for Stage 1 of the program are near conclusion. There are only minor issues left to resolve and it is anticipated that the final contracts will be signed in the coming weeks.
> 
> Linc Energy's technical team continues to work on many innovative ways to handle the unique challenges to be confronted in the Red River Delta Area. The Company sees this as an opportunity to develop portable, skid-mounted production units that will provide Linc Energy with a set of tools to routinely and cost effectively undertake trial UCG projects in any location in the future.
> 
> Linc Energy's drilling engineers are also working to develop innovative aspects into the well design to improve upon lessons learnt from our Chinchilla trials and with input from Yerostigaz commercial operations.
> 
> It is intended that Stage 1 of the program that includes sixty days of gas production will be completed within twelve months. The purpose of this stage is to determine the suitability of the Red River Delta coal for underground gasification. If successful, the companies will move into Stage 2 of the program; being the development of a commercial UCG field to provide syngas for much needed power generation in Vietnam.




Should the announcement on the 23rd be positive, Linc will find itself proving its a new future for liquid fuels production and power generation. A new greenish energy class.

DISC:HOLD


----------



## namrog

Where does it say anything about diesel production ?

If you look at any of the recent announcements, there is little or no mention of liquids production, and, more and more talk of syngas being used for power generation, seems to me they are changing tact a little, got to ask the question , are there some problems with the GTL process, as this is what linc are really about, in my oppinion of course.

Otherwise,  linc are no different than a host of companies listed on the asx that are into CTG , of which there is no shortage of supply.

Figures for diesel production from the demo plant is what we really need to see, but has anyone else noticed that the company has been conspiciously quiet re these numbers ??

I really hope they can pull it off, but the bullsh!t and the delaying tactics need to stop.
Peter bond and co, should get back to managing the company, not managing the share price.

It's as simple as this in my eyes, regardless of the tight credit situation at the moment, or whether they sell the theresa tennements or not,,, if it is proven that the gas to liquids procces works satisfactorily, then I believe the neccesary funds can be raised easily to build a commercial plant as the figures speak for themselves.........


----------



## select

Namrod,

The Vietnam venture with Marubeni and Vinacomin has always been about power generation, not liquids.

I think the poster you responded to was making the point that Linc's business covers liquids and power and wasn't making any reference to Vietnam liquids.

I have included 2 of Linc's announcements dating back to mid 2007 for your reference.

LINC ENERGY FURTHER CEMENTS RELATIONSHIP WITH MARUBENI
CORPORATION

Brisbane-based Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) has today announced that it has further cemented the
relationship with Marubeni Corporation that was established with the signing of a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) on 12th June 2007, with a further agreement being entered into between Linc Energy
Ltd, Marubeni Corporation and the Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industrial Group (VINACOMIN) signed on
Thursday, 2nd August in Hanoi.
Linc Energy Ltd (LINC ENERGY) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Vietnam National
Coal and Mineral Industries Group (VINACOMIN) and Marubeni Corporation (MARUBENI) to form a Joint
Venture Company as a means to develop the Red River Delta Coal Basin (Vietnam) via the application of Linc
Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) process, and to use that UCG gas for feeding a proposed
combined cycle gas fired power station.
VINACOMIN is a State-owned business enterprise established by the Prime Minister of Vietnam in a bid to
develop Vietnam’s significant resources.
VINACOMIN has identified 30 billion tonnes of coal in the Red River Delta (see attached diagram of the
region) which has significant development potential via Linc Energy applying its UCG process. Linc Energy will
be paid to construct, operate and own a UCG demonstration facility as part of the program of development in
the Red River Delta which is located 30 to 40km from Hanoi (Fig 1). Hanoi is the economic centre of
northern Vietnam – Haiphong, Vietnam’s main port, lies on a branch of the delta.

The Red River Delta has a requirement for a low impact mining strategy which is why VINACOMIN and
Marubeni are exploring utilising Linc Energy’s UCG process - the first step in unlocking the significant potential
the region has to offer. It is the intention of the Joint Venture Company that a 400mW combined cycle UCG
gas fired power station be constructed within the region and that all power generated from this facility be sold
to the Vietnam Government at an agreed price for a period of twenty-five (25) years.
“All three parties to this MOU were very excited about the potential to unlock the coal in the
Red River Delta so as to be used to provide clean power for Vietnam. It is a great example of
an Australian Company exporting clean coal technology to an Asian country who’s economy is
booming” said Justyn Peters, General Manager of Business Development for Linc Energy.
This new Memorandum of Understanding reinforces Linc Energy’s presence on the global stage. 

AND

Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industrial Group (VINACOMIN) signs
further MOU with Linc Energy

• MOU signed in the presence of Vietnam’s Prime Minister (His Excellency Mr
Nguyen Tan Dung) and the Queensland Trade Minister (The Hon John Mickel
MP)
• VINACOMIN of Vietnam to invest US $5m into Linc Energy and pay a further
US $5m for LNC’s consulting services
• Power deal could supply up to 6 million homes in Vietnam with power
generated from Underground Coal Gasification (UCG)
Linc Energy Ltd (LNC) announced that as part of its growing presence in Vietnam, the
company signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) yesterday agreeing to be part of
stage 1 of the Red River Delta Consortium.
As part of this MOU, VINACOMIN will invest US$5million into Linc Energy, with the final
commercial terms of this investment to be negotiated.
In addition to this investment into Linc Energy, it is proposed that Linc Energy will be paid a
further US$5m for its services in developing a UCG gas field at the Red River Delta location.
The Red River Delta project eventually will have the potential capacity to supply electricity
to around 6 million homes in Vietnam and do so with power produced from a lower CO2
yielding production process via the utilisation of Linc Energy’s clean coal UCG process.
The MOU was signed in the presence of Vietnam’s Prime Minister, His Excellency Mr Nguyen
Tan Dung and the Queensland Minister of Trade The Honourable John Mickel MP.
Mr Peter Bond, the CEO of Linc Energy said “I would like to thank the Prime Minister, His
Excellency Mr Nguyen Tan Dung, for his participation in the MOU signing Ceremony. I
would also like to thank the Queensland Minister of Trade, the Honourable John Mickel for
his attendance and support in what is a defining moment for Linc Energy and Queensland
trade with the export of Clean Coal technology to Vietnam.”
Linc Energy will be commencing stage 1 of the Red River Delta project, later this year once
Linc has completed the commissioning of its Chinchilla Coal to Liquids facility, which is
currently underway and on track for completion over the coming weeks.
Should you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact Peter Bond on
(07) 3229 0800.
Peter Bond
Chief Executive Office
28 March 2008


----------



## Mickel

Namrog

From InvestorLINC Mar 09 Issue 11 under the heading-

Smart improvements for Chinchilla GTL success

"Substantial reliability has been built into the GTL process over the past quarter. The gas cleaning facilities that remove contaminants
such as sulphur, mercury and arsenic were demonstrated to function according to the design intent during extended performance
runs. The management of sulphur, a key aspect for the downstream 
Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthetic fuels process, progressed well, with good improvements achieved in the analysis and interpretation of results.
Consistent supply of synthesis gas at contaminant levels far below the design
requirement, were also achieved.
Through several modifications to the feed compressor and auxiliary systems, compression of the synthesis gas to the required pressure of the FT reaction in the range of 25–30 bar was achieved. Modifications were also made
to the control system and the lubrification of this compressor. The lubrification was further changed to a synthetic oil system to eliminate
the ingress of sulphurous components that would poison the FT catalyst.
Prior to reacting synthesis gas to syncrude on the cobalt catalyst, the catalyst needs to be activated. This is achieved by reducing
the surface of the catalyst from its inactive, oxidised state to its active state through reaction with hydrogen at high temperature.
Improvements to the temperature management systems were implemented to ensure a reduction takes place to the fullest extent to ensure optimum synthesis gas conversion. This included an upgrade of the electrical heaters
and improved insulation of the reactor and associated piping. The low pressure reduction compressor operation was also improved to reduce ingress of oxygen and removal of water from the process stream, both preventing full
reduction of the catalyst.
The FT reactor, steam generation and downstream syncrude handling equipment have also been improved in terms of process control and operability. Additional sophistication was built into the reactor temperature
measurement system. In conjunction with our core catalyst supplier, SÃ¼d-Chemie, testing and optimisation of the catalyst reduction and operation parameters of the FT catalyst continues. This work paves the way for
additional catalyst performance testing in terms of optimised conversion and desired syncrude components. A solid relationship continues between the two parties as test work moves into the reliability testing phases.
Towards commercialisation
The operation of the demonstration plant in Chinchilla is used primarily to validate our technology as we move towards commercialisation of the UCG and GTL processes. Our vision for UCG to GTL will be a world-first commercial achievement. The Chinchilla demonstration facility is Linc Energy’s
‘technology hub’, providing critical input to the conceptual design of the commercial facility."

While they haven't quantified the conversion of GTL in this current statement, they have previously stated that they can produce 1.5 barrels of diesel from a ton of coal. While the above information is not headline grabbing, it is nevertheless all good news.

Disclosure- I am a long term holder.

Link to InvestorLINC No 11- http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/investor-linc-issue-11.pdf


----------



## namrog

Thanks Mickel and Select for posting up the latest announcements.

Not having a go at anyone, but there is a lot of useless technical information there, that I would say is over the heads of about 95 % of linc investors, mine included.
Why can't they state in plain simple english, how much diesel is being produced on average daily.
That's no big ask, very simple really.
From memory, and I might have to be corrected here, the expectation was that the demo plant would produce 8 barrels of diesel per day, if they could even produce half that, it's something to build on, and would give some confidence, that they are at least on the right track, but the silence on this front is deafening, or maybe it's just starting to work, could be why the sp has been rising, though that is more than likely connected to market sentiment, possible theresa deal,  than diesel production....... though if you read between the lines, looks like the theresa deal is anything but resolved.

I always believed liquids production, was what set linc appart, reducing our reliance on foreign oil,  after all, australia hardly lacks the resources needed for electric power generation, even clean and green if it wanted to.  

Guess we will have to wait until monday, for answers.

In the mean time if it's of any interest, chart pattern says ,we should get a big lift next week, but not before few days down .

My Oppinion only and dyodd.

Re Joe.


----------



## cwamit

isn't csg a methane ... most lpg gas have other gases in its constitution that help create more heat than just methane but even these extra gases arnt good enough in lpg to run anything but cars... ie trucks are gutless running on lpg. 

i don't see the potential of diesel csg, sounds nice but when it comes down to its use it wont work for the majority of diesel engines , methane has even less power than lpg gases.

another point is csg will not pay the same as petroleum based gas for the above reasons i have already mentioned, lower efficiency.


----------



## glads262

*cwamit??*

Um, you might need to read into this a bit further. The LNC method does not produce "diesel gas" or "csg - methane"

It produces a LIQUID which is of a higher quality than diesel which can be used directly in diesel engines producing a similar effect to diesel (ie power/performance/efficiency) but with lower sulphur etc emissions.

On another note, nice to see a spike in the price of oil/gold, reduction in the USD on the announcement last night by the FED that they are printing another trillion dollars. Should put a rocket under the oil price for the rest of the week?

I would assume with a reduction in the USD, a higher oil price, the price of gas in America should rise pretty soon. All those Americans with empty fuel tanks should rush out to the Mobil & fill up cheap while they still can!! (reducing inventories??)

Any views on this hypothesis?


----------



## Nero64

From thebull.com.au

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=1170

The guy doesn't know why he chose LNC shares to win the tipping comp

Why doesn't he read the announcements.

By the way PB better make that announcment soon. He seems to like getting peoples hopes up and then disappointing. 

He would've made a good propaganda minister in Nazi Germany - Sorry if I offended anyone!


----------



## glads262

I'm nearly wetting myself today in anticipation of some ink hitting a contract somewhere in China. I'm really hoping announcement is made before the weekend so I can celebrate tonight!!

But, Alas, Mr Market is telling me otherwise today. Some large sell orders coming in. Is this, again, short sellers? Or longer term holders with dejavu of last announcement dates??

I agree with earlier posting, that we are likely to hear on either 23rd March if positive announcement, or a few days later if not.

Here's hoping


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Glads262*
> 
> "...I agree with earlier posting, that we are likely to hear on either 23rd March if positive announcement, or a few days later if not.
> 
> Here's hoping"




Glads, Previous LNC announcement indicated that market release would come no later than 23 March 2009.  My tip is that market release re Theresa Coal Sale will happen after market tonight so there is plenty of time for people to absorb the added value to the company over this weekend before she opens up over $3 on Monday morning. (Okay, so I'm an optimist)

There will also be an announcement out shortly regarding the progress of their GTL technology.


----------



## basilio

Well judging by the  360,000 odd share buy order put in at the end of trading today someone is confident of a good result.

Or perhaps they were covering some short selling

Isn't waiting wonderfull.........


----------



## glads262

basilio said:


> Isn't waiting wonderfull.........




Shut up bas. My nickers are getting wet...

400k buy?? I reckon someone just took a HUGE risk. Kind of like deal or no deal. 
Do you take the 50k offer, or go for $100k briefcase, knowing you could end up with, say, 30k?


----------



## JTLP

glads262 said:


> Shut up bas. My nickers are getting wet...
> 
> 400k buy?? I reckon someone just took a HUGE risk. Kind of like deal or no deal.
> Do you take the 50k offer, or go for $100k briefcase, knowing you could end up with, say, 30k?




Yeah except its not like they came from zero to hero.

The only benefit of the person taking that risk (if the sale does not proceed or is delayed) is that they will get a nice capital loss.


----------



## grace

Now I see why PB was selling off some of his holding.....he has just purchased a riverside mansion in Brisvegas for $10mill.

Let's hope he has been working on other contracts too!


----------



## enigmatic

I must admit i was expecting the announcement to be made Friday afternoon, maybe there waiting until monday arvo not to sure why though.

hoping for the afternoon, would like to pick some up sub $1.65 if i could.


----------



## select

I think the Queensland election is something that should be of interest to all LNC holders but nobody is talking about it.

The ALP's policies may become a memory soon.


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Select*
> 
> "I think the Queensland election is something that should be of interest to all LNC holders but nobody is talking about it.
> 
> The ALP's policies may become a memory soon."




Why should we be concerned about the QLD Election Select? 

LNC's first projects are scheduled for South Australia, Vietnam and Wyoming


----------



## select

ColB said:


> Why should we be concerned about the QLD Election Select?
> 
> LNC's first projects are scheduled for South Australia, Vietnam and Wyoming




ColB,

Chinchilla isn't the first project because of the Qld ALP's decision to side with BG.

I'm sure you would understand the ALP's efforts in ensuring Chinchilla wouldn't be developed in the foreseeable future. Maybe the LNP would have had other ideas.

But the ALP have been re-elected so South Australia will be the first liquids project.


----------



## light

An announcement has been released this morning.

"Linc Energy has received formal notification that all necessary non-Australian approvals for the purchase of its coal tenement assets have now been obtained.

Linc Energy expects to finalise negotiations and execute the sale contract for the coal tenements in the coming 3 to 4 weeks."

and this has already started to push price up


----------



## Mickel

Announcement this morning-

"23 March 2009
Coal Tenements Sale Update
•
Linc Energy has received formal notification that all necessary non-Australian approvals for the purchase of its coal tenement assets have now been obtained.
•
Linc Energy expects to finalise negotiations and execute the sale contract for the coal tenements in the coming 3 to 4 weeks.

Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX : LNCGY) is pleased to announce that its negotiating team was formally notified on Friday, 20th March 2009 that, other than Australian governmental approvals, all necessary approvals have now been obtained by the parties with whom negotiations have been continuing since late 2008 for the proposed purchase of the Emerald (Teresa) coal tenements.
Obtaining these important approvals allows the parties to proceed to finalise negotiations on the remaining transaction details.
Linc Energy expects to finalise negotiations and execute the sale contract for the coal tenements in the coming 3 to 4 weeks, with the remaining formalities to be completed in Australia.
Linc Energy’s General Manager of Business Development, Mr Justyn Peters, stated “Whilst the sale process has taken longer than expected, in obtaining all of the necessary off-shore approvals we achieved a fundamental milestone which will allow the parties to complete the sale process relatively quickly from this point. We have worked tirelessly with our Chinese counterparts to obtain the necessary approvals. Completing this milestone has been a challenging and difficult aspect of the sale process, particularly within the current economic climate.”
Linc Energy’s negotiating team will return from China this week. The Company will update the market upon the execution of the sale contract or as soon as any further material information is available; *but in any event no later than 4 weeks from today."*

S/P currently up 16c to $1.925 after reaching $1.95 earlier today.

Stockholders (myself included) need to remain patient. At least LNC is giving more certainty to Announcements.


----------



## light

Sorry forgot to put the link of the announcement.

here is the link:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090323/pdf/31gqdt068gqf76.pdf


----------



## glads262

So, approvals have been given by Chinese. 
Looks like still negotiating on price. Or maybe waiting on Aust govt approval before signing the contract?
You would think price would have been sorted after 6 months of negotiating.
Also, "further negotiations will be made in Australia" seems to suggest LNC execs not going to China again? You would think if they had further negotiating to do, they would do it on China's soil?
Good to see the SP gaining some ground - although there is a mountain of sellers. Drift sideways hopefully for the next 4 weeks.


----------



## Nero64

> Linc Energy expects to finalise negotiations and execute the sale contract for the coal tenements in the coming 3 to 4 weeks




I remember him saying in Dec 2008 that we are confident of a sale within the next 4-6 weeks. 

Then 3 weeks ago he said that talks are in the final stages with an update by 23 March. 

I am not doubting him. I just think we have been here before. So much uncertainty. Stuck in 2nd gear. Time will tell.


----------



## glads262

LNC finished the day higher. Maybe this will continue with the lower USD and higher oil prices over the next month. Just out - $500 billion spent by govt to buy ****ty mortgages - gotta be more bad news for USD, hence higher commodity prices!


----------



## Mc Gusto

Had it on my watch screen for awhile...need to go through this thread and watch a bit closer...like it as an energy stock just not sure whether i would be buying on a high at the moment or at the beginning of of a recovery!

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## glads262

Mc Gusto said:


> Had it on my watch screen for awhile...need to go through this thread and watch a bit closer...like it as an energy stock just not sure whether i would be buying on a high at the moment or at the beginning of of a recovery!
> 
> Thanks
> 
> Gusto




Hey Gusto,
Don't think you would be doing too badly at todays prices. The Teresa sale should net $2-3 bucks cash per share after tax - hopefully providing limited downside. As an energy stock, it is HIGHLY leveraged to the oil price. The BBY analyst report on www.lincenergy.com.au provides good detail on the sensitivity of their valuation to the oil price. 
Once the Teresa sale goes through, you would be holding for future oil price rises, plus volatility due to confirming that a commercial scale plant produces the goods.
Good luck!
Glads.


----------



## gohawks

Huge spike today. Insider knowledge? Has the sale gone through finally? Good times at LNC at the moment.


----------



## light

Yes, very happy to see LNC has finally gone past the $2 mark again.

Things are looking good and can't wait to see the the release of an official announcement regarding to the sale.


----------



## Mickel

With the volume of sales this morning (500,000 in first 10 mins) and many of 10,000 or more, I suspect that there is a lot of overseas buying (probably from US). Currently S/P up $0.26 to $2.43.

I'm a long term holder and happy that LNC finally seems to be taking off.


----------



## Jazzee

As a long term holder of Linc energy, the suspense is testing me, feels like a lifetime ago since the sale of the tenements was announced.  I am hoping that the 3-4 week period is realistic and we will finally have certainty in what has been a test of wills.  Once this sale is completed - onwards and upwards.


----------



## eric35

Yes, Jazee, I am sure there is plenty of potential there. I am hanging in there.
Maybe a few more weeks


----------



## RP_Automotive

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a small pullback, not much.....but I think a few people got onto this anticipating a announcement of the sale of tennaments. Now its a while away, those traders have made their money and are getting out.

Lets hope the sale goes through as indicated (price wise) and everyone jumps on before the bangwagon leaves town 

Im holding for long term.


----------



## eric35

LNC had quite a few ups and downs over the last few weeks/months. I use the volatility to make money with the pullbacks, but am holding one position for long term. I believe in the future of the company in the long term


----------



## 9405

I would like to think that all companies big or small can make it through the tough times but it seems that this story of the sale happening is a bit long winded.  The news that 3 more Linc employees from the Drilling and Exploration team were made redundant yesterday make it even more unlikely that they themselves believe the sale is going through.  Common sense would think that if they strongly believed the sale to be progressing positively they would keep these people on, this comes after a number of D&E employees were made redundant in Jan.
Not saying that in this environment it is unheard of, but it does seem odd that they are making employees redundant in light of the recent news.

Make your own decision and check sources at Linc if doubtful.


----------



## glads262

9405 said:


> I would like to think that all companies big or small can make it through the tough times but it seems that this story of the sale happening is a bit long winded.  The news that 3 more Linc employees from the Drilling and Exploration team were made redundant yesterday make it even more unlikely that they themselves believe the sale is going through.  Common sense would think that if they strongly believed the sale to be progressing positively they would keep these people on, this comes after a number of D&E employees were made redundant in Jan.
> Not saying that in this environment it is unheard of, but it does seem odd that they are making employees redundant in light of the recent news.
> 
> Make your own decision and check sources at Linc if doubtful.




9405.
"The News??"
How can you substantiate this. Do you have a link or written confirmation of this, or is this speculation. If so, not allowed on this site unless written as speculation.
Also, employee's made redundant in Jan?? Source??

How do you know they haven't increased subcontracting staff?? - They could be making staff redundant in Qld, and refocusing on SA also.

Where is your research on this??


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by *Glads*
> 
> 9405.
> "The News??"
> How can you substantiate this. Do you have a link or written confirmation of this, or is this speculation. If so, not allowed on this site unless written as speculation.
> Also, employee's made redundant in Jan?? Source??
> 
> How do you know they haven't increased subcontracting staff?? - They could be making staff redundant in Qld, and refocusing on SA also.
> 
> Where is your research on this??




Glads, you're spot on.  Last time 9405 posted back on 16th January 2009 he was advised/warned to provide his source regarding his negative claims.  He didn't bother to respond so he/she is obviously stirring the pot or trying to ramp the SP down.  Has no credibility, you won't hear from him.


----------



## Nero64

The company is cash flow negative. 

More than a few people will be laid off if that sale doesn't go through.


----------



## james99

Nero64 said:


> The company is cash flow negative.
> 
> More than a few people will be laid off if that sale doesn't go through.




The majority of start up and first 5 year miners are cash-flow negative.

All UCG companies that I know of are cashflow negative; that is the case with a developing industry and why prices are generally low and allow for fantastic gains as the industry matures. 

LNC has:

- 9000 pj potential resources, aside from the Teresa tenements;
- the worlds oldest operating UCG plant;
- the trial plant, rather than merely plans therefor;
- various tenements and JV type agreements;
- dual listing.

Its MC is $800 mil, and even if a sale is for only $600 mil, that values the balance of its assets for only $200 mil, ie at a CNX level. 

Even if the sale is for $400 mil, it will have money in the bank, as opposed to the others who will still have to try and raise at some difficulty in todays climate.

I and nor I suspect do others online know whether the sale will proceed and for how much, but we can say:

- Bond will be pushing it as hard as possible;
- the new CFO will hardly want a non-sale to be his first involvement;
- the announcment is due on or before 20 April 2009. 

So, sometime before then we may see a trading halt; and I want to be on the right side of that, ie invested.


----------



## glads262

i think this talk of mass layoffs etc is a bit premature. It just goes to show that they hyped up this tenement sale a bit too much. LNC has no cashflow, but has shareholder support to continue drilling to prepare:
1. Coal tenements for sale (ie Teresa & that other one... (forget name)
2. One of the many other coal tenements that are surplus to needs.
3. Oil in SA
4. Coal in SA
5. Suitable sites in SA for future plans.

This will continue regardless. Maybe might slow like everyone else to conserve cash??

Realistically, if no sale progresses, then it may happen over the next 12 months as coal prices etc improve. It is an ASSET and does not disappear because their are no potential buyers.


----------



## glads262

Well, its d-day again. Waiting for that announcement before the market opens!!

Interesting trading yesterday, tried to push higher again, but large sell order popped up at 2.23, then other large sell orders under this, then large buy orders under that. Kept in a thin trading range most of the day.

Large sell order seems to have disappeared, but still some large sells in the market. 

We'll see how the action goes today, hopefully a halt sooner than later. This may be the last chance to get in before the SP rockets if announcement is positive.


----------



## Jazzee

I'm hoping it's today and we aren't left waiting over the w-end!  It was difficult to pick up a trend in yesterday's trading.


----------



## Nero64

What happens if they only sell Teresa for 400mill?

What happens if the market has already factored in the buy and after (If we are still alive ) the announcment the stock drops by 50c. 

Don't assume the SP will rocket. It has already gone up 130% or so from its low this year. 

When eveyone assumes then sometimes the opposite happens.


----------



## Santoro

With recent significant sp increases in coal stocks and the willingness of the chinese to secure resources during the GFC (for the future) one could conclude that the likelihood of a positive announcement is increasing....


----------



## Mickel

ASX announcement this morning-

"Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce the successful completion of negotiations with its project partners, Marubeni Corporation, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) and Song Hong Energy of the Civil Works Contract and Works Contract to undertake Stage 1 of the Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) Tonkin project in the Red River Delta region of Vietnam."

From a previous announcement on 28 Mar 08-
"Linc Energy Ltd (LNC) announced that as part of its growing presence in Vietnam, the company signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) yesterday agreeing to be part of stage 1 of the Red River Delta Consortium.

As part of this MOU, VINACOMIN will invest US$5million into Linc Energy, with the final commercial terms of this investment to be negotiated.
In addition to this investment into Linc Energy, it is proposed that Linc Energy will be paid a further US$5m for its services in developing a UCG gas field at the Red River Delta location."

So LNC will have some more $$ coming in but we are still waiting for THE announcement (due TODAY) regarding the sale of the Emerald coal tenements.

S/P currently up 3c at $2.15.

I'm a long term holder.


----------



## glads262

Good to see positive announcement for LNC. 
Smells like previous announcements. Announcing other things to stop price crashing when another delay announced.
You would think that if they signed after their "3-4 week" timeframe, it would not have been at the last minute on the last day of their projection. That would be too convenient. If they had a positive OR negative (ie no-go) announcement they would have made it by now (as per market rules)

Oh well, just have to wait another month!


----------



## nipper

I used to work for Linc in Drilling and Exploration and was sacked in January. I was told 5 geos in total would sacked. They cited cash flow problems and pulling out of QLD. I was willing to move to SA but they were not interested.

I've moved on and have no regrets. I am simply stating what I know from personal experience.

I'd prefer not to provide my name so I guess this comment may be classed as pure speculation.

Perhaps a concerned shareholder could contact Linc and ask themselves.


----------



## ralsy

Emailed LINC today about Tenement sale this is what they said.

It remains our intention to update the market today as per our commitment on 23rd March.



Regards
Janelle va de Velde
Manager Investor Relations


----------



## glads262

ralsy said:


> Emailed LINC today about Tenement sale this is what they said.
> 
> It remains our intention to update the market today as per our commitment on 23rd March.
> 
> 
> 
> Regards
> Janelle va de Velde
> Manager Investor Relations




Yup, at 410pm EST, the announcement will come.

"LNC are continuing discussions. They are going favourably. We expect to update the market by May the 23rd."

Might as well have a two hour nap waiting...


----------



## glads262

nipper said:


> I used to work for Linc in Drilling and Exploration and was sacked in January. I was told 5 geos in total would sacked. They cited cash flow problems and pulling out of QLD. I was willing to move to SA but they were not interested.
> 
> I've moved on and have no regrets. I am simply stating what I know from personal experience.
> 
> I'd prefer not to provide my name so I guess this comment may be classed as pure speculation.
> 
> Perhaps a concerned shareholder could contact Linc and ask themselves.




Nipper, whilst you have my condolences (belatedly) This is no different to any other mining/oil company at the moment. They are all halting new drilling etc because it is not worth it at current prices. 
Its not worth LNC spending all their cash now on exploration & possibly running out again. This enables them to take them time & realise proper value for other assets such as Teresa. (ie they are probably waiting for Xinwen to up their offer which has obviously come in well below 1.5 billion)

If & When they get the cash, they will hire 1000 drillers etc & fast track every bit of exploration they have. (oil, coal, US, Vietnam, SA, Chinchilla, whereever!!).
This will be fantastic to watch - an exploration company with a billion dollars!!

Goal - to get the SP as high as possible, and fund expansion & Gas to Liquids via debt and asset sales.

My own opinion only.


----------



## glads262

I meant 410pm Perth time...

Seriously, its 10 mins till end of the business day in EST. Why hang onto this?? I highly doubt they know any more now than they did this morning...

I would have thought that "update the market today" meant "during market hours??"


----------



## Mickel

It is disappointing to note that LNC has not kept it's commitment of 23 Mar 09
to report no later than in 4 weeks  (ie 20 Apr 09) about the Teresa coal tenement sale progress.

I assume that they are still at least some days away from finalising the negotiations, otherwise they could call a trading halt for a day or two.

No doubt the Chinese are trying to screw them down on the price. Perhaps P Bond thinks there is a good chance that they will agree on an acceptable price at any moment. In that situation he could then make a favourable announcement rather than just say negotiations "are continuing".

But, how long can the market wait (without the S/P crashing) with no announcement?

S/P closed 20/4 at $2.13 opened this morning at $2.05 reached high of $2.10 and a low of $2.02. Currently trading at $2.07 on volume of 310,000.

As previously stated, I am a long term holder.


----------



## glads262

Mickel said:


> It is disappointing to note that LNC has not kept it's commitment of 23 Mar 09
> to report no later than in 4 weeks  (ie 20 Apr 09) about the Teresa coal tenement sale progress.
> 
> I assume that they are still at least some days away from finalising the negotiations, otherwise they could call a trading halt for a day or two.
> 
> No doubt the Chinese are trying to screw them down on the price. Perhaps P Bond thinks there is a good chance that they will agree on an acceptable price at any moment. In that situation he could then make a favourable announcement rather than just say negotiations "are continuing".
> 
> But, how long can the market wait (without the S/P crashing) with no announcement?
> 
> S/P closed 20/4 at $2.13 opened this morning at $2.05 reached high of $2.10 and a low of $2.02. Currently trading at $2.07 on volume of 310,000.
> 
> As previously stated, I am a long term holder.





I agree. They are tarnishing their credibility with these late announcements. At least should have the courtesy to provide an update when they said they would. It is the height of rudeness to be late without informing that you will in fact be late.

I would have thought with no announcement, POO down 8%, DOW down 4% that the SP would have crashed already. Obviously all the traders out there are willing to hold until the announcement comes through - whenever that may be.


----------



## Jazzee

I remain positive that the sale will proceed.  It is frustrating that Linc seem to be unable to stick to timeframes they set themselves.  I am looking forward to this sale being finalised as I see it as a cloud hanging over the company in the current environment.


----------



## Jazzee

Looks like they have learnt their lessons.  There is no d-day in this announcement.  There is a little bit of new info there though, not just Emerald.


----------



## glads262

Jazzee said:


> Looks like they have learnt their lessons.  There is no d-day in this announcement.  There is a little bit of new info there though, not just Emerald.




I agree - this is perhaps what they should have been saying all along - not actually announcing a date but saying "will continue to keep market updated"

I guess its a good thing that other tenements are involved. I would have preferred they get Teresa in the sack before looking at selling these. Don't see the point in selling two coal tenements at the bottom of the market if the cash is not needed. They could have waited until they know what $ Teresa would have received - meanwhile continue drilling and proving up the resources to maximise future sale value when coal price is higher.

But oh well, we'll see what comes of it. Pentland was previously said to be worth perhaps $200 million. Not sure of the other. Haven't had any drilling updates on these for ages.
Perhaps all three should net around the $1 billion figure needed?

Can't wait for the deal when it does finally happen.


----------



## Mickel

I think P Bond wants a sale price of $1 Billion + for headline value as well as giving LINC a decent kitty apart from construction cost of the 20,000 bpd plant.

A headline of "1 Billion + Sale Price" for a company like LINC with a capitalisation of less than $2 Billion would create much interest and do wonders for the S/P, as we have seen with the initial announcement.

To achieve this he has had to include the other coal tenements in the sale.

My opinion only. I hold.


----------



## Jazzee

I completely agree.  I think that whilst a $1 billion price, would not be a record price, I think it would be magnificent in the current market and would allow Linc to go forward with everything that is currently planned.  I am also holding.


----------



## DowJones

I think the recent run-up in this stock was in the 2.40s

Its announcement yesterday after hours seems to have been liked by the market. The share price has retraced back to the 2.20s... 

Holding this one long term but should have topped up yesterday


----------



## Nero64

> Holding this one long term but should have topped up yesterday




Yeah agreed. I felt that way when it start pushing up from the .90c mark. It's in our nature to always pay the lower price. It should go sub $2 again if the market is not updated in a week or so or the Dow tanks another 300-400.


----------



## DowJones

Nero64 said:


> Yeah agreed. I felt that way when it start pushing up from the .90c mark. It's in our nature to always pay the lower price. It should go sub $2 again if the market is not updated in a week or so or the Dow tanks another 300-400.




That was advice from my financial adviser - Harry Hindsight 

Now the important element is the negotiated price for the coal asset sale. Hope they are good negotiators - I think the timing is decent (better than say a month ago), with certain commodities showing signs of a recovery trend.


----------



## tasweb

I have no idea who these guys are or if they have any idea at all, but I thought it was interesting that they recommend a buy based purely on fundamentals with no mention of asset sales. 

CNBC Video

P.S. pretty blue flames!

P.P.S. I am a small holder.

[edit]<slaps forehead> Sorry, just watched it again, and they do mention the asset sales</stops slapping>


----------



## Boggo

Popped up in my scan tonight, this particular scan has been getting some good results over the last few weeks.

(click to expand)


----------



## Mickel

LNC creeping ahead today to finish up 4c to $2.30 on volume of 1.266M .

Hope it will increase to $2.50 over the next week as positive sentiment regarding the extra 2 tenements for sale holds.

I hold.


----------



## Mickel

From today's Courier Mail City Beat column (page 62)-

"Vietnamese Link
A heavyweight grouping of business, mining and Vietnamese government types are in Queensland this week for a close look at Linc Energy.

Led by a Vice-Minister in the Vietnamese Government, the group has put pen to paper to sign off on a Linc Energy joint venture in Vietnam.

Linc now has more than a dozen joint venture opportunities with governments around the world and Federal Resources Minister *Martin Ferguson* was on hand to witness the deal and to give it strong support in Brisbane this week.

Linc put on a gala dinner to mark the occasion and the Vietnamese delegation quickly responded that they would host the next shindig in Vietnam. Linc Energy boss *Peter "Shaken But Not Stirred" Bond * returned to work this week after a well-earned short holiday. "


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post (890) ASX announcement this morning from LNC regarding the official opening of the GTL facility by Minister for Resources Martin Ferguson on Wed 22/4 and a subsequent media release by him supporting coal to liquids and gas to liquids technologies.

Ref- http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090424/pdf/31h6m8d8zwqm52.pdf

With the international guest list at the opening, I would expect more overseas interest and buying over the short term. Perhaps some of yesterday's sales were from overseas.


----------



## mortsta

if cnbc says buy it...dont touch it with a barge pole...
i've held since .25c...i told my bruther to buy more when it hit .17c but we didnt have the cash...wished i'd sold my wife to buy more at that price!!


----------



## Jazzee

So, does anyone have a thought on how long it is going to be before we have a further update on the tenement sale?  The market seems to be liking Linc today..


----------



## glads262

Jazzee said:


> So, does anyone have a thought on how long it is going to be before we have a further update on the tenement sale?  The market seems to be liking Linc today..




How long is a piece of string??
It could be any time now. 
I would say the strength today is in line with strength in all energy stocks due to the rise in oil on Friday.


----------



## Jazzee

So what do we think is going on today, we have wooshed forward.  I wonder if there will be a fallback in the share price (in true Linc style), or are we close to the sale being finalised?


----------



## RP_Automotive

It seems to be holding up for now, but not a huge amount of volume either. I can't see the SP finding support much higher untill a announcement comes out. I, ofcourse am more than happy to be be proved wrong 

Edit: or ofcourse insider info.


----------



## gohawks

Jazzee said:


> So what do we think is going on today, we have wooshed forward.  I wonder if there will be a fallback in the share price (in true Linc style), or are we close to the sale being finalised?




Insider knowledge? Sale must have gone through just not official as of yet? 

Enjoying the ride either way.


----------



## glads262

LNC saw buying of about 900k between 1130-1145. All in one hit. This jumped the price up, and there was a minimum of sellers stepping in.
Could be an insto buying perhaps.
Consequently, some traders may have jumped on it due to it breaking out of its short term range around 2.20-2.30.
Not necessarily insider trading related.
With LNC narrowing down their buyers and including all three tenements recently though, the sale or non-sale should be announced fairly soon you would think. 
Otherwise, why have the buyers narrowed down to one?? This either shows that the other two dropped out due to lack of interest/funds, or they were forced out due to price negotiations with the one buyer left being the current highest bidder.
My speculation only.
Holding still, despite any temptation at a quick 20% profit on some recently purchased holdings.


----------



## Mickel

glads262 said:


> LNC saw buying of about 900k between 1130-1145. All in one hit. This jumped the price up, and there was a minimum of sellers stepping in.
> Could be an insto buying perhaps.
> Consequently, some traders may have jumped on it due to it breaking out of its short term range around 2.20-2.30.
> Not necessarily insider trading related.
> With LNC narrowing down their buyers and including all three tenements recently though, the sale or non-sale should be announced fairly soon you would think.
> Otherwise, why have the buyers narrowed down to one?? This either shows that the other two dropped out due to lack of interest/funds, or they were forced out due to price negotiations with the one buyer left being the current highest bidder.
> My speculation only.
> Holding still, despite any temptation at a quick 20% profit on some recently purchased holdings.




Glads, that buying around 1130-1145 included at least 6 lots of 10,000 shares and one of 80,000. There were other large parcels sold  around that time as well. 

IMHO they were from overseas (USA).Perhaps the US people who attended the dinner and official opening of the GTL plant last week returned to the US and told their friends. The trading unit of LNC in USA is LNCGY which is equivalent to 10 LNC shares. So a sale of 10,000 would be 1000 of LNCGY, a common parcel in USA. I agree with your other comments about not necessarily being insider trading.

LNC did get a speeding ticket yesterday, and answered that a possible explanation was uninformed speculation about the coal sale. They confirmed that there was no new news.

LNC closed yesterday up $0.30 at $2.56, after an intraday high of $2.68, on turnover more than 3m, opened today at $2.55 and are currently at $2.46.

I hold.


----------



## glads262

I was out at 2.55 yesterday, thinking that this scenario would peter out and that the SP would fall into the close - and the POO may drop overnight due to flu, and I could buy back in at a lower price.
First time I have not been exposed to LNC in 12 months.
I stressed all night, and crapped myself this morning when the POO was back at $51/bbl. 
Seems that the share price has stabilised this morning at 2.46 & I am back in. I have lowered my entry price by $.10c, but I think I have aged about a year in the process.

Quarterly out today - not much new news, but does re-iterate that LNC have a lot more going for them than just the Teresa etc etc sales. 
Jorc due out on dalby in next 2 months.
Drilling at Gallilee
SA exploration full speed ahead.
Further refining ops at Chinchilla.
Just need to get this asset sale done and dusted to take the uncertainty out of the SP.
Note that LNC seem to have enough cash available in lending facilities for next 6 months.

PB knows exactly how he is going to spend his $1bill plus. The plans must be all ready to go, just waiting on the cash for execution.

I would say once the sale goes through, there will be a raft of new announcements out regarding ramping up of exploration in all tenements (current budget about $20mil a year, imagine if this was increased to $100m??) Update on GTL process, and immidiate ordering of long lead time equipment for facility in Chinchilla/SA. There are plenty of unemployed in the industry that could be hired to speed this up at a lower cost than 12 months ago. 
It will be all systems go - very exciting. Just waiting on that cash. Waiting. Patiently. 

Don't forget - LNC is an ASX200 stock. NOONE is covering them at the moment. I reckon this may change with the above activity, a market cap that pushes LNC towards the ASX100, much safer investment with the cash backing. Also, PB owns 50% plus of the company, so any institutional buying will have a larger effect on the share price, as only 50% of the companies shares are available for purchase (less the large % of people who are long term holders!)

Patience is a virtue....


----------



## Mickel

A number of people on this thread (myself included) believe LNC S/P is directly linked to the oil price. With this in mind, and noting the AUD/USD exchange rate is moving within a broad range, I've listed various rate and oil price combinations-


     AUD/USD Rate    .65 ----          .70 ----            .75  ----            .80

Oil Price
USD
50           -- --      76.92   -   --    71.43      -- --    66.67      ----     62.50

55            ----      84.62     ----   78.57      ----      73.33    -   ----  68.75

60            - ---     92.31 ----       85.71    ----        80.00   ----       75.00

70     ----            107.69 ----    100.00   ----        93.33 ----         87.50


Approx a month ago when oil was USD 45 and AUD/USD rate was.70 the Aussie equivalent was $64.29 . Last night with oil at USD 56 and the rate .75
the Aussie price was $74.67

When looking at LNC's 20,000 BPD operation(still 2-3 years hence) an increase of $10 pb equates to $72 million pa added to the bottom line.

Food for thought.

I hold for the long term and added more yesterday at $2.35


----------



## glads262

Cheers for that Mickel. Its easy to focus on the short term.
I agree that LNC is highly correlated to the oil price. Its a pretty high leverage play.
The AUD oil price should continue rising, as the AUD is probably overvalued at the moment, and signs of economic recovery should hopefully start showing up the the inventory reports (like yesterdays.)
Don't forget to add the premium for diesel!!

LNC seems to have found support around the 2.35 mark again - cheers for that Mickel! - and is having a good day today with the rising POO.

Haven't heard from PB for a bit though - there has to be some progress sooner or later...


----------



## Mickel

glads262 said:


> Cheers for that Mickel. Its easy to focus on the short term.
> I agree that LNC is highly correlated to the oil price. Its a pretty high leverage play.
> The AUD oil price should continue rising, as the AUD is probably overvalued at the moment, and signs of economic recovery should hopefully start showing up the the inventory reports (like yesterdays.)
> Don't forget to add the premium for diesel!!




Glads, I have a different view on the AUD. When the economic recovery starts most of the commodities will increase (as long as China continues full steam ahead). The AUD appears to be linked to commodities prices and so, in my view, will increase. However, I think the USD oil price will increase more than the AUD rate, so I agree that the AUD oil price will increase. The thread " Oil Again" has some interesting comments regarding oil price rises.

I am aware of the premium for LNC's diesel (USD 10 to 15 pb) and it applies to all the prices I quoted previously, so it won't change the increase .

A story in the Courier Mail this morning of oil above USD 58.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25446890-5003402,00.html


----------



## Jazzee

I wonder how long before we get an update on the Tenement sale?  It has been a little over 3 weeks, surely Linc has a responsibility of some sort to update the market in the very near future.


----------



## glads262

Jazzee said:


> I wonder how long before we get an update on the Tenement sale?  It has been a little over 3 weeks, surely Linc has a responsibility of some sort to update the market in the very near future.




Hi Jazzee,

Not really. LNC only have an obligation to report something if the situation changes - ie they have new information that could impact the share price - ie sale going through or falling through.

I would assume though, like most companies, that LNC will provide an update shortly even if there is no change. an announcement pretty much like the last "sale is progressing, but hasnt reached a conclusion"


----------



## Go Nuke

I would have thought that as the deal got closer the share price would go up..but that hasn't happened.

No perhaps its been played down so that you can buy in at a low price like today and make a good gain over the next few weeks...OR someone knows something about the deal being delayed again etc...OR people have lost interest in waiting for the announcement.

Just thoughts


----------



## glads262

Go Nuke said:


> I would have thought that as the deal got closer the share price would go up..but that hasn't happened.
> 
> No perhaps its been played down so that you can buy in at a low price like today and make a good gain over the next few weeks...OR someone knows something about the deal being delayed again etc...OR people have lost interest in waiting for the announcement.
> 
> Just thoughts




Nuke, valid thoughts. 

Not sure about the first comment though. How do we know that the deal is getting closer?? It could be getting further away...

I reckon this is why the SP is falling. Its been 2-3 weeks since last news. Short term holders are capitulating, saying they can't wait & are pessimistic. SP should rise if LNC come out with a "its coming, but not yet" announcement, as this would confirm that it is not dead.

But ultimately, a re-rating is only going to occur with a positive announcement - of any kind - anywhere north of $1billion would be acceptable. 

If you are a strong believer, you could be accumulating in at this lower price. Risk is I guess that if the sale falls through, SP could tank to $1. But if sale goes through - could spike to $3-4.

I have my money placed, but am not willing to commit any more funds at this stage. Many long term LNC holders would be same - therefore we are not providing much buying support to counter the short term sellers.

Hopefully should hear something before the end of the month...


----------



## voyz

could it bepossible that linc would be holding off the sale till the new financial year for tax reasons? i heard this could be a possible reason?


----------



## Mickel

voyz said:


> could it bepossible that linc would be holding off the sale till the new financial year for tax reasons? i heard this could be a possible reason?




An interesting comment, Voyz.

In BBY's analyst report dated 8/9/08 (page3) below, they assumed that LNC would pay approx $300M tax on a sale price of $1.5B. They mentioned "deductions and some roll-over relief" as reasons for a reduced tax rate of 20%.

I'm not sure of the implications of the "roll-over relief" but it does suggest deferring tax to a new tax year. If that was the case, it would seem there would be no advantage in delaying the sale to the new financial year.

LNC also could structure the payments similar to the initial arrangement- ie $150M pm for 6 months and the balance at the end of 6 months. This would put most of the sale proceeds in the next F/Y. 

Are there any tax accountants who can shed more light on the situation?

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-17.pdf


----------



## luckypaul

Hi - I am a long term holder who is getting a little frustrated by the delays and lack of information on the Emerald (Teresa) sale. I have no doubt that this is the reason that the SP is declining and find it frustrating that further delays mean that there is more chance that another correction in the markets will kill either the SP by itself and/or kill the potential beneficial impact of positive news. This was exactly what happened when they produced first diesel back in October 2008 when the market decline caused a 30% drop in Linc's share price and amongst all of the negativity the fantastic 'first diesel' news resulted in a megre 15% rise whereas it should have had a mind blowing impact! 

Don't get me wrong, I do STILL have a lot of faith in Mr Peter Bond and Linc's vision but It's been over 8 months now since the initial Emerald sale announcement (then to Xinwen). Since then we have had world markets crashes, financial confusion and mayhem before finally getting regulatory approval from Australian and Chinese ...so close to a deal...and then the game changed again.  

To try and keep the faith I thought I would try and do some simple maths. Back in September 2008 Linc announced the Teresa tenement sale to Xinwen for AUD 1.5 billion. At this time the JORC statement for Xinwen stated 470 million tonnes of thermal coal. At this time the USD price for thermal was approx USD 163 per metric Ton (source http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=12 ). 

Since then Linc has updated the Jorc statement to 852 million tonnes (approx +85%) but the price of thermal coal has plummeted to USD 65 (same source - March was the low). That is approx -60%. 

Now I am not technical, not normally into coal and certainly not the mathematian that some of you are but AUD 1.5 billion + 85% - 60% = AUD 1.1 billion (very approx). To complete this logic I need Jorc statements for Galilee and Pentland (and some idea of what type of coal they hold as it may not be themal and therefore may be priced differently). Has anyone seen that information anywhere?? 

I did find an article in a Linc document (dated 31st March 2008 - therefore probably out of date = http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-65.pdf ) detailing Linc Energy tenements whith 3 Galilee tenements listed (covering a total of 2084 km²), 1 Pentland (190 km²) and mentions Teresa as covering 197 km². This is interesting but without up to date JORC statements is useless in trying to approximate and predict a sale price. NOTE: I would guess that the sale delay may be due to time spent getting confirmed JORC statements for these 'for sale' areas, if so, it could take a long time and a hell of a lot of drilling !%!

Linc currently has 715,782,205 shares (source Internaxx) on issue so dividing 1 billion by that means that the cash value per share for every 1 billion netted from the sale is AUD 1.39 eek: Why is that  very different from BBY's AUD 3 per share mentioned in http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-17.pdf )?

What I am trying to do here is get a cash price per share for every billion netted in the upcoming coal sale. If we have this information, we will have a good base target SP as soon as the sale details are announced. My logic above may well be floored and I am sure you guys can do a much better job but maybe, just maybe the wait will be worth it! I certainly hope so.


----------



## glads262

luckypaul said:


> :
> To try and keep the faith I thought I would try and do some simple maths. Back in September 2008 Linc announced the Teresa tenement sale to Xinwen for AUD 1.5 billion. At this time the JORC statement for Xinwen stated 470 million tonnes of thermal coal. At this time the USD price for thermal was approx USD 163 per metric Ton (source http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=12 ).
> 
> Since then Linc has updated the Jorc statement to 852 million tonnes (approx +85%) but the price of thermal coal has plummeted to USD 65 (same source - March was the low). That is approx -60%.
> 
> Now I am not technical, not normally into coal and certainly not the mathematian that some of you are but AUD 1.5 billion + 85% - 60% = AUD 1.1 billion (very approx). To complete this logic I need Jorc statements for Galilee and Pentland (and some idea of what type of coal they hold as it may not be themal and therefore may be priced differently). Has anyone seen that information anywhere??




Hi Luckypaul,
Don't forget also, the Currency difference of 20% in favour of the chinese. this would also have an impact on the cost of the tenements.

I have no doubt of a value of $1billion at current prices for all three tenements. Hoping for anything above this is probably futile.

No doubt, the value of all three tenements was probably $2billion a year ago, and will probably be $2 billion again in another 12 months. But LNC want a sale now, so will have to take whatever is offered - or wait.
Waiting another 12 months means SP collapse, a slowdown in all their drilling etc to conserve cash, probably another share placement, and a years delay to their first commercial facility. A lot to give up.

But then again, so is giving up the potential for another $1billion from the sale.
Its a hard one to balance, which is probably why it is taking so long. PB does not want to firesale (I'm sure he could sell it tomorrow at $500million), but he also wants a quick resolution.

Just remember. Even if it doesn't happen this year, it will eventually happen.


----------



## Mickel

luckypaul said:


> Linc currently has 715,782,205 shares (source Internaxx) on issue so dividing 1 billion by that means that the cash value per share for every 1 billion netted from the sale is AUD 1.39 eek: Why is that  very different from BBY's AUD 3 per share mentioned in http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-17.pdf )?
> 
> What I am trying to do here is get a cash price per share for every billion netted in the upcoming coal sale. If we have this information, we will have a good base target SP as soon as the sale details are announced. My logic above may well be floored and I am sure you guys can do a much better job but maybe, just maybe the wait will be worth it! I certainly hope so.




Luckypaul, LNC currently has just under 416m shares- check page 3 of latest announcement on May 6. At the time of BBY's analyst report LNC had 397.6m shares according to page 1 of the report.

So, that equates now to $2.40 per share per billion gross (or $3.60 gross for $1.5B). Refer to my previous post on this thread regarding possible tax on this sale.

I share your frustration with the delay in finalising the sale. I am also a long term holder.


----------



## Jazzee

Assuming that the profits on the sale of the tenements is a capital gain (which I'm assuming it is), the timing of the capital gains tax event(determines which year the gain would need to be declared), such as the sale of the tenements is when the contract is entered into, regardless of when monies are received.  I'm not sure whether it would be considered that Linc have already entered into a contract (particularly with the vague details provided).  I am impatiently waiting like everyone else - I hope I will be pleasantly surprised sometime soon with an announcement.


----------



## luckypaul

Mickel said:


> Luckypaul, LNC currently has just under 416m shares- check page 3 of latest announcement on May 6. At the time of BBY's analyst report LNC had 397.6m shares according to page 1 of the report.
> 
> So, that equates now to $2.40 per share per billion gross (or $3.60 gross for $1.5B). Refer to my previous post on this thread regarding possible tax on this sale.
> 
> I share your frustration with the delay in finalising the sale. I am also a long term holder.




Mickel, You are correct. Linc has 415,782,205 shares currently on issue. My appologies for my earlier mistake. Happy that now matches the earlier BBY quote AND that it greatly improves the cash per share price per billion. In theory the price for Emerald should be around the 1 billion+ mark (and coal prices are rising along with other commodities so maybe the delay may help us here). Of the other 2 tenements Galilee covers a far greater area (in km²) than Emerald whilst Pentland is very similar to it (Source: http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-65.pdf ). I know that doesn't mean it has the same quantity or quality of coal but it sure as hell adds to the potential deal price. Any JORC info out there on these areas????...I need to support my fantasy of good news although I still feel like I am waiting for Santa and it's now New Years Eve!! I am hanging in there though :


----------



## happytown

linc energy ann,

signs contract for acquisition of approx 90,000 acres of coal tenements in us



> ...
> 
> The 92,059 acres being acquired have a *coal deposit exploration target range of 7 to 8 billion metric tonnes (non-JORC Code standard)* based on existing drilling data.
> 
> The Powder River Basin is the largest coal producing region in the United States with current production from surface mines representing over 45% of the total US production. The area being acquired by Linc Energy contains multiple subbituminous coal seams ranging from 6 to 15 metres thick and occurring at depths in excess of 150 metres, making them excellent targets for Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) operations.
> 
> Linc Energy has agreed to pay US$5 million for the purchase of the GasTech coal tenements. This agreement follows the Letter of Intent between Linc Energy and GasTech which was announced on 3rd December 2008 and completes the first phase of the proposed GasTech purchase, with the remaining area subject to a further transaction pending resolution of pre-emptive rights held by a major petroleum company.
> 
> ...



due diligence still to be completed, settlement expected in 60 days

cheers


----------



## glads262

luckypaul said:


> In theory the price for Emerald should be around the 1 billion+ mark (and coal prices are rising along with other commodities so maybe the delay may help us here). Of the other 2 tenements Galilee covers a far greater area (in km²) than Emerald whilst Pentland is very similar to it (Source: http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-65.pdf ). I know that doesn't mean it has the same quantity or quality of coal but it sure as hell adds to the potential deal price. Any JORC info out there on these areas????...:




Luckypaul: Check out past announcements for LNC. Pentland has JORC figure quoted from drilling results received late last year I think. Most analysis back then was saying a potential value would be around $100 million.

Galilee - I think they are drilling this at the moment/in the near future. They have no figures on this one, so it will sell for a fairly low value at the moment.

I wouldn't be putting too much focus on how much they are going to get for all three tenements. It has now boiled down to whether they will get anything at all in the current environment.
This is why LNC have thrown in the two other tenements - they are throwing everything at this transaction in order to get a deal done.

If you must focus on the figures - I would say $1billion is most likely for all three (as this is a fire sale at the bottom of the market)
$1.5 billion would be more of an acceptable value, but less likely.
$2billion would probably be a "market value" based on the JORC resources, but this is HIGHLY unlikely.

BASIC analysis on the SP - if sale is $1billion, probably $3-4 per share
If sale is 1.5billion, probably $4-5 per share
If sale is 2 billion, probably $5-6 per share.
If sale is less than $1billion, probably $2.5-$3 would be it.

If no sale.............. SP will be around $1.

Its a risk/reward between the sale going through or not.

Most likely if sale goes through, you may double your money...
If sale falls through, you will do in half your money short term...... but in the long run - a sale will happen at some stage to someone for some amount when things improve globally.

Hopefully, with the resources prices (coal price) improving by the day, this will give China some incentive to get a deal done. They have been holding out watching things deteriorate. But I don't really expect them to give up the opportunity to purchase these tenements at a firesale price. I reckon they will buy them, its just a matter of who cracks first on the price - Peter Bond or Xinwen.


----------



## Mickel

Perhaps the chinese company Xinwen are awaiting the outcome of the RIO/CHINALCO deal before agreeing to LNC's price for the coal tenements.

If some reports, that the deal is unlikely to go ahead, are confirmed, then the chances of LNC wrapping up a good deal would seem to increase. Refer this story in Brisbane Times-

http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/rio-shares-pounded-on-deal-worries-20090514-b3yv.html


----------



## glads262

Mickel said:


> Perhaps the chinese company Xinwen are awaiting the outcome of the RIO/CHINALCO deal before agreeing to LNC's price for the coal tenements.
> 
> If some reports, that the deal is unlikely to go ahead, are confirmed, then the chances of LNC wrapping up a good deal would seem to increase. Refer this story in Brisbane Times-
> 
> http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/rio-shares-pounded-on-deal-worries-20090514-b3yv.html




I'm not sure this deal falling through would have much of an effect on anything.

China are out to get all the resources they can at the cheapest price at the moment. 

Its not like the $20billion is a huge outlay of funds. China's foreign reserves are around US$2trillion, so this would be 1% of their available assets.

Perhaps, if the RIO deal falls through, it may signal to China that they need to offer more premium than they are currently for assets (but not much more)

But, LNC is still a fairly desperate seller, whereas RIO is no longer desperate.


----------



## DowJones

I got out of this stock at 2.20 when it had run up to almost 2.70 

Only time will tell if it were a good decision. It has been giving up ~5% daily recently - slow attrition.

I'd still like this stock Long Term but locked in some profits in the Short Term.


----------



## basilio

> Oil Prices: Norwegian Supply Falls; Is $100 Oil Far Away?
> Norway, the world’s fourth biggest crude exporter, said Monday that its oil production fell a sizeable 7% in April to 1.99 million barrels a day last month from 2.15 million barrels a day in March.
> 
> Though preliminary, the data highlight one of the big underlying supply problems in non-OPEC states that many oil analysts believe is likely to send crude prices back over the $100 a barrel mark in coming years. Oil closed Friday at $58.63, its highest settle since mid-November. It is trading around $57.75 a barrel this morning.
> 
> The Norwegian situation is being replicated in other non-OPEC oil producers, such as Mexico and the U.K. These regions are mature and giving up less oil, meaning that keeping production flat is getting harder and harder.
> 
> If analysts are right, this underlying supply struggle will keep oil prices relatively strong in coming years.




http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalc...s-norwegian-supply-falls-is-100-oil-far-away/

If you have  been wondering if LINCs  coal to oil model looks like a winner you should consider the above report.

Oil supply is collapsing around the world. Mexico's output is falling rapidly ditto UK and Norway.  And this is happening  over a relatively short time frame of months and a few years at the most.

*It won't be long before output falls to the current (depressed) demand levels - and then keeps falling.* If LINC has its plants operational by then it will be one of the relatively few companies to do well in a an energy constrained world.

That unfortunately is  the clear but bleak vision of Peter Bond and why he is so furiously buying  appropriate coal reserves  around the world and banking on his technology to produce diesel at approx $30 a Barrel.


----------



## The Dealer

Been a big fan for a while now and still hold but just sold off a bit.
Reason why!
I just recently listened to a conference by (wont name the company) about their resource long short fund. They then took questions and I asked about Queenslands CSG (not fans by the way) and then LNC specifically. They knew all about it. He said why would you put money into something right now that has to wait for a plant to be built before you get a return. After the GFC you can buy top quality oil produces at below replacment cost and don't have to wait for a plant to be built. Then when oil rebounds you will be selling to market straight away.  I thought it was a good point.


----------



## dirkdiggler444

Hi Dealer, just interested in this situation your posting about, you went to a conference where a company gave their viewpoint about whether certain shares should be in their fund or not.

If they were happy to give this info to the public via a conference medium, why not post their name??

I mean they put the info out there, they said it, you're simply saying they said it, so its not like you're lying about them.  You're telling the truth, so why not post the company name?  Even if its not true, are we to limit what we post about to only info we can immediately verify somehow?

I see this a lot and I find it a bit confusing as to why some things are basically censored.  I like to make up my own mind.


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by The Dealer...
> 
> Been a big fan for a while now and still hold *but just sold off a bit.*
> Reason why!  I just recently listened to a conference by *(wont name the company)* about their resource long short fund...."




Sold a day early Dealer!  Up 9%.  Don't feel bad, I picked up another 20 thousand shares last week at $2.39 only to see it drop to $2.05.  Just waiting for that announcement.



> Originally Posted by DirkDiggler444...
> 
> "...If they were happy to give this info to the public via a conference medium, *why not post their name??*




Dirk still waiting for a response


----------



## Nero64

> Don't feel bad, I picked up another 20 thousand shares last week at $2.39 only to see it drop to $2.05. Just waiting for that announcement.




Hope you're right Col. That is a lot to wager on. I wouldn't put my faith on just one deal going through especially when the CEO is procrastinating on the sale dates. I have noticed LNC becoming a trading stock now, up and down in a 50c range. All ranges break sooner or later.


----------



## The Dealer

WT
http://business.theage.com.au/business/coal-gasification-is-gathering-steam-20090524-bjh4.html

"Linc's chief operating officer Stephen Dumble said that would require a billion-dollar investment. He said Linc would conduct a full feasibility study next year on a commercial plant, with a final investment decision in 2011."

That's scarry!!
I thought the sale procedes were to fund the plant??
I'll help all you long term holders out by selling right out now and buying back in at a $1. I'm always wrong!


----------



## glads262

The Dealer said:


> WT
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/coal-gasification-is-gathering-steam-20090524-bjh4.html
> 
> "Linc's chief operating officer Stephen Dumble said that would require a billion-dollar investment. He said Linc would conduct a full feasibility study next year on a commercial plant, with a final investment decision in 2011."
> 
> That's scarry!!
> I thought the sale procedes were to fund the plant??
> I'll help all you long term holders out by selling right out now and buying back in at a $1. I'm always wrong!




Dealer, it was always going to require a billion dollar investment.

Plans are - that the billion dollars will come from asset sales. That is why nothing much is happening at the moment. They need to bed down the funding first, then proceed to feasability and FID. They wouldn't spend money doing the feasability study if they did not have the cash to complete the project.

At the moment - sourcing the billion dollar investment from equity is not going to happen. Hence, waiting waiting waiting for that asset sale to move this company to the next stage.


----------



## ColB

Near on 400,000 shares traded after close when only 200,000 had sold up until 4pm.  Was heading for a $2.04 - $2.05 finish with after market purchases pushing price to $2.11

Surely the announcement re coal tenement sale is *just* around the corner


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> Perhaps the chinese company Xinwen are awaiting the outcome of the RIO/CHINALCO deal before agreeing to LNC's price for the coal tenements.
> 
> If some reports, that the deal is unlikely to go ahead, are confirmed, then the chances of LNC wrapping up a good deal would seem to increase. Refer this story in Brisbane Times-
> 
> http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/rio-shares-pounded-on-deal-worries-20090514-b3yv.html




I'm leaning more strongly towards this view now. No facts to base it on, just a feeling. At least no deal announced for LNC/XINWEN before the Treasurer rules on the FIRB  for RIO/CHINALCO matter which I understand will be by June 15.

Patience ! Patience !


----------



## Gunter

Mickel said:


> I'm leaning more strongly towards this view now. No facts to base it on, just a feeling. At least no deal announced for LNC/XINWEN before the Treasurer rules on the FIRB  for RIO/CHINALCO matter which I understand will be by June 15.
> 
> Patience ! Patience !




Any thoughts on what is going to happen now since the RIO deal has fallen through? 
Maybe they are likely to announce soon now or perhaps delaying the announcement til after June for tax reasons?


----------



## Mickel

Gunter said:


> Any thoughts on what is going to happen now since the RIO deal has fallen through?
> Maybe they are likely to announce soon now or perhaps delaying the announcement til after June for tax reasons?




In my view, the Chinese are more likely to move quickly to buy these coal tenements. They now no longer have to worry that this foreign purchase of mineral assets could damage delicate considerations with the RIO deal, which was the main Chinese focus.

My view only, and I am a long term LNC shareholder.


----------



## ColB

A few nerves creeping in today.  SP Sold down to 1.915 and was rallying back up toward a $2 close.  200,000 sell order came in at close of market to push SP back to 1.945

What with the exceedingly long winded delay of possible coal tenement sale announcement we don't need too many more days like this


----------



## DowJones

I sold my LNC shares a while ago - I thought the $2 price was always the support line. I think until the announcement it may be the resistence now.

Seemed a big seller lost his/her confidence or patience (opened ok today due to the crude oil price movements lately). I still like Linc long term.


----------



## RP_Automotive

I agree people would be at whits end....I'm thinking of taking my profits and putting them elsewhere....but I'm trying to stay for the long term. I think it will continually go 'stail' untill something is announced. Lets hope they come up with something soon,.


----------



## The Dealer

I see that BHP has accepted a 58% price cut in coal from 2008 price.
Will that apply to LNC coal sale??


----------



## luckypaul

> To try and keep the faith I thought I would try and do some simple maths. Back in September 2008 Linc announced the Teresa tenement sale to Xinwen for AUD 1.5 billion. At this time the JORC statement for Xinwen stated 470 million tonnes of thermal coal. At this time the USD price for thermal was approx USD 163 per metric Ton (source http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?c...lian&months=12 ).
> 
> Since then Linc has updated the Jorc statement to 852 million tonnes (approx +85%) but the price of thermal coal has plummeted to USD 65 (same source - March was the low). That is approx -60%.
> 
> Now I am not technical, not normally into coal and certainly not the mathematian that some of you are but AUD 1.5 billion + 85% - 60% = AUD 1.1 billion (very approx). To complete this logic I need Jorc statements for Galilee and Pentland (and some idea of what type of coal they hold as it may not be themal and therefore may be priced differently). Has anyone seen that information anywhere??





Ladies and Gentlemen..remember the above I posted back in May 13th, 2009 in a sad attempt to work out a possible deal price for the 3 coal tenements???

My rough logic estimated a AUD 1.1 billion price for Teresa (852 million tonnes based on their Jorc of that time) adjusted from the original sale offer and adjusted down for coal price drop but up for Teresa Jorc update....Well, the latest release from Linc http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090612/pdf/31j12s0m5ntb2n.pdf estimates 3-3.4 BILLION Tonnes for Galilee!!! I'll leave you to do the maths as I am too excited to type!

This appears to be FANTASTIC! Only downside I can see is that the whole stockmarket is about to plunge again while us faithful hold on to their Linc stock waiting for more holes to be drilled so a final deal price can be announced!!!

Note: I am a long term, frustrated (and now excited and frustrated) holder. :


----------



## luckypaul

OK - I did the maths...

Based on my original estimate (which nobody commented on as incorrect or daft), my guess of a revised AUD 1.1 billion for 852 million tonnes of Teresa coal means that the coal costs AUD 1.29 billion per billion tonnes. 

Low Galilee (3 billion tonnes) plus Teresa (852 million tonnes) plus Pentland (zero as no estimate available) = 3.852 billion tonnes.

3.852 x 1.29 = AUD 4.97 billion. It was previously estimated that the cash price per Linc share was $2.4 per billion which would give us a CASH PRICE PER LINC SHARE of *AUD $11.93*.

Please note: These are my ROUGH estimate and most figures used are my estimates too (although you can see my logic in this and the previous post). Also be aware that I have used lower values where possible too and there are still some unknowns - like Pentland, exact coal price (which is now rising) etc. Feel very free to correct me here.

Still Holding but now very, very excited.


----------



## The Dealer

luckypaul said:


> OK - I did the maths...
> 
> Based on my original estimate (which nobody commented on as incorrect or daft), my guess of a revised AUD 1.1 billion for 852 million tonnes of Teresa coal means that the coal costs AUD 1.29 billion per billion tonnes.
> 
> Low Galilee (3 billion tonnes) plus Teresa (852 million tonnes) plus Pentland (zero as no estimate available) = 3.852 billion tonnes.
> 
> 3.852 x 1.29 = AUD 4.97 billion. It was previously estimated that the cash price per Linc share was $2.4 per billion which would give us a CASH PRICE PER LINC SHARE of *AUD $11.93*.
> 
> Please note: These are my ROUGH estimate and most figures used are my estimates too (although you can see my logic in this and the previous post). Also be aware that I have used lower values where possible too and there are still some unknowns - like Pentland, exact coal price (which is now rising) etc. Feel very free to correct me here.
> 
> Still Holding but now very, very excited.




Was just about to sell my last 20000 out this morning then this. Just doubled up!
We just needed this news to restore some confidence that they aren't standing idle


----------



## The Dealer

Macquarie banks forward estimates on Thermal coal is $73 per tonne through to 2015. What price did you use back on the 13th?


----------



## Mickel

luckypaul said:


> OK - I did the maths...
> 
> Based on my original estimate (which nobody commented on as incorrect or daft), my guess of a revised AUD 1.1 billion for 852 million tonnes of Teresa coal means that the coal costs AUD 1.29 billion per billion tonnes.
> 
> Low Galilee (3 billion tonnes) plus Teresa (852 million tonnes) plus Pentland (zero as no estimate available) = 3.852 billion tonnes.
> 
> 3.852 x 1.29 = AUD 4.97 billion. It was previously estimated that the cash price per Linc share was $2.4 per billion which would give us a CASH PRICE PER LINC SHARE of *AUD $11.93*.
> 
> Please note: These are my ROUGH estimate and most figures used are my estimates too (although you can see my logic in this and the previous post). Also be aware that I have used lower values where possible too and there are still some unknowns - like Pentland, exact coal price (which is now rising) etc. Feel very free to correct me here.
> 
> Still Holding but now very, very excited.




LP, I share your frustration and excitement. I have some additional points that could alter your maths.
1. The Teresa total of 852 MT includes 200 MT of coking coal which has a higher price than steaming/thermal coal (refer page 13 of ASX Ann 18/11/08- check it on LNC website).

2. The Chinese Yuan has appreciated against the AUD by about 20% since 9/08 according to previous posts on this link.


As the Galilee coal is thermal, point 1. would lower your overall valuation. Point 2. could possibly raise the valuation.

I'll leave the maths to you. I remain a long term holder.


----------



## mexican

Mickel said:


> LP, I share your frustration and excitement. I have some additional points that could alter your maths.
> 1. The Teresa total of 852 MT includes 200 MT of coking coal which has a higher price than steaming/thermal coal (refer page 13 of ASX Ann 18/11/08- check it on LNC website).
> 
> It will be alot more than 200mt of coking coal. Being located in the Bowen basin on the German creek seam, this deposit will be more coke than thermal.
> The announcement states, "200mt of open cut mining" not the total amount of coking coal.
> Be conservative and calculate on 50-50.
> 
> 
> LT invester.
> 
> 
> 
> ]


----------



## JAKSPARA

been holding for a while now. sold half my holding yesterday out of frustrationalthough this anouncement didnt really help the sp today??


----------



## luckypaul

> Macquarie banks forward estimates on Thermal coal is $73 per tonne through to 2015. What price did you use back on the 13th?




Hi 'The Dealer'. FYI My original estimate back on May 13th was based on Thermal Coal being USD $63 per metric Ton (source http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?c...lian&months=12 ). 
It was this same source that gave me the original estimated thermal price at original deal time back in September as being USD 163 per metric Ton. 

I agree with Mickel and Mexican's comments on types of coal. Unfortunately more specific information is not readily available to make a more accurate estimate so this is the best I have at present. It could well be a significant over estimate as it stands but then it is not yet a complete picture yet either (i.e. coal price is rising, inclusion of Pentland resources, currency rate changes, the fact that the Chinese can get knocked back on occasions - may assist the valuation).

I would imagine that Linc are forbidden to make information available while the deal is still being negotiated. This Jorc update on Galilee is likely to be all we will get. Having said that 3.0 billion tonnes of whatever coal must have significant value in anyones book. My worry is that to get an accurate estimate and, therefore, to get an accurate worth, there would need to be significantly more drilling - which takes time and means more delays.

It has got to be good in the end though...as long as there is not some devious Chinese delaying tactic plan to take Linc off track whilst others take the lead. I have faith in Mr Bond though so will continue to hold.


----------



## Mickel

mexican said:


> Mickel said:
> 
> 
> 
> LP, I share your frustration and excitement. I have some additional points that could alter your maths.
> 1. The Teresa total of 852 MT includes 200 MT of coking coal which has a higher price than steaming/thermal coal (refer page 13 of ASX Ann 18/11/08- check it on LNC website).
> 
> It will be alot more than 200mt of coking coal. Being located in the Bowen basin on the German creek seam, this deposit will be more coke than thermal.
> The announcement states, "200mt of open cut mining" not the total amount of coking coal.
> Be conservative and calculate on 50-50.
> 
> 
> LT invester.
> 
> ]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mexican, the reference I gave (page 13 of the Ann 18/11) quotes this-
> 
> "The Emerald “Teresa” deposit is currently estimated to contain a total JORC compliant coal resource of 852 million tonnes. All of this resource is within the Inferred JORC category. Of this total approximately 200 million tonnes has metallurgical potential."
> 
> Page 1 of the announcement did state 200MT of the 852MT would be open cut ie- "Emerald (Teresa) Coal Tenements have now been developed to an inferred resource of 852 million tonnes of coal in accordance with the JORC Code*, with a 200 million tonne open cut mine area identified".
> 
> They are 2 different 200MT references. However, it would not surprise me if they found more than 200MT of coking/metallurgical coal given its position in the Bowen Basin.
Click to expand...


----------



## Mickel

Further to estimates of what the Chinese deal may be worth, I have found a JORC statement for the Pentland deposit.On page 7 of the ASX ann 30/1/09 Quarterly Report-

"As at December 2008, Linc Energy had announced coal resources totalling 3.408 billion tonnes (in accordance with the JORC Code). The resources were located in the following tenement areas:

- Chinchilla 600 million tonnes (being 24 million tonnes measured, 222
million tonnes indicated and 354 million tonnes inferred) of coal in accordance with the JORC Code

- Emerald  ¡nferred resource of 852 million tonnes of coal in accordance
with the JORC Code"

- Pentland 266 million tonnes (being 176 million tonnes indicated and 90
million tonnes inferred) of coal in accordance with the JORC Code

- Arckaringa Basin inferred resource of 1,690 million tonnes of coal in accordance with the JORC Code*".

So up for sale are 200MT of coking coal and 3918MT of thermal coal on current estimate statements,
the latest statement(12/6) being only a target statement, not a JORC statement.


----------



## luckypaul

> So up for sale are 200MT of coking coal and 3918MT of thermal coal on current estimate statements,
> the latest statement(12/6) being only a target statement, not a JORC statement.



 Mickel



> Macquarie banks forward estimates on Thermal coal is $73 per tonne through to 2015.



 - The Dealer

I think the $73 quoted is a USD price based on the fact that http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=12 is in USD.

For the thermal coal only:
3918 Million Metric Tons x 73 = USD 286 billion which at 0.81 = AUD 354 billion!!!

Huh! My maths must be wrong as that would give Linc a cash value per share of 354,000,000,000 / 417,451,436 (shares in issuance) = AUD 870! 

Please correct me before I buy my Mercedes.


----------



## luckypaul

Ok - the above is crazy because USD 73 per metric tonne is probably the 'above ground' price, not the price for a valuation in situ. However even if you were to take 5 or 10% of that the valuation it is still extremely good for the cash per share it represents.

I'll try to look at this another way by reviewing the original deal values, adjusting for resource and coal price percentage change (in the @x@xx'ing long months since September 08) and using that value to estimate based on the 'Mickel' resource estimate above':- 



> To try and keep the faith I thought I would try and do some simple maths. Back in September 2008 Linc announced the Teresa tenement sale to Xinwen for AUD 1.5 billion. At this time the JORC statement for Xinwen stated 470 million tonnes of thermal coal. At this time the USD price for thermal was approx USD 163 per metric Ton (source http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?c...lian&months=12 ).
> 
> Since then Linc has updated the Jorc statement to 852 million tonnes (approx +85%) but the price of thermal coal has plummeted to USD 65 (same source - March was the low). That is approx -60%.




That was some of what I wrote on May 13th. Assuming thermal coal is now USD 73, that is a drop of approx 55% (adjusted from 60% due to coal price increase) from September's approx $163 in the thermal coal price.

Teresa should, therefore, be AUD 1.5 billion + 81% (corrected) - 55% = AUD 1.221 billion for 852 million tonnes... Teresa+Galilee+Pentland Thermal coal alone 'The Mickel Resource estimate' should be worth AUD 5.61 billion for the estimated 3918 MT. That is AUD 13.43 per Linc share cash value!

Again all based on conservative estimates but I think the logic is OK (again feel free to correct as I am an investor, not a maths man). Fingers crossed anyhow and I am holding with bated breath on this. I wonder why the Sp hasn't moved yet??


----------



## mexican

Stand corrected Mickel. Coming off night shift does not do my brain any favours. 
Really stands out that the SP is not moving until the sale goes through with the price of oil hitting over $70 US, the good report from the Galillee deposit and the SP has not moved.
I think sometimes to cash in some profit and if the sale does not go through buy in again. 
But you just don't know with Bond, he could pull another rabbit out of his hat.
Another tenement that could be worth a few $ is the Alpha deposit. With Waratah coal looking at opening up a massive thermal mine, it might play into Linc's hands if the drilling results come back positive. 

LT holder and waiting...waiting......waiting!


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> Stand corrected Mickel. Coming off night shift does not do my brain any favours.
> Really stands out that the SP is not moving until the sale goes through with the price of oil hitting over $70 US, the good report from the Galillee deposit and the SP has not moved.
> I think sometimes to cash in some profit and if the sale does not go through buy in again.
> But you just don't know with Bond, he could pull another rabbit out of his hat.
> Another tenement that could be worth a few $ is the Alpha deposit. With Waratah coal looking at opening up a massive thermal mine, it might play into Linc's hands if the drilling results come back positive.
> 
> LT holder and waiting...waiting......waiting!




Hello there Mexican.  I am just holding some free carried ones these days.  I did lighten up quite a bit - overall holdings in lots of other things as well.  Love this one - just waiting for a pullback to increase my holdings again.  I've been saying that for a while now.


----------



## namrog

grace said:


> Love this one - just waiting for a pullback to increase my holdings again.  I've been saying that for a while now.




Me too grace, have  2 immediate targets in mind 1-80 and 1-50, though could be anything if the markets correct as i anticipate, having said that though,  with a structured averaging in plan in mind, I'm thinking that even now would not be worst time to put say the first 10 % on ?? and 10 % for every 25 cent drop in sp, to the bottom wherever that maybe , and back until 100 % in....could vary it to suit few things like general sentiment , etc.

Only an idea, worth thinking about maybe....


----------



## DowJones

In the last few days the LNC share price has seriously tanked.

I picked some up at 1.715 but I am not confident that it may hold that seeing it did bottom at 1.685 after opening at 1.84. There might be a big seller (or short sellers)?

I will average down if need be....


----------



## Kuri

DowJones said:


> In the last few days the LNC share price has seriously tanked.
> 
> I picked some up at 1.715 but I am not confident that it may hold that seeing it did bottom at 1.685 after opening at 1.84. There might be a big seller (or short sellers)?
> 
> I will average down if need be....




I have been a holder of Linc for a while now and a common trend is if the price rises their will often be some good news released a bit later and if the price goes down then bad news is released. It could just be a coincidence and I am hoping this is not the case at the moment. I will not sell my holdings though as the potential upside keeps me in the game.


----------



## namrog

Last few days weakness had in my oppinion, little to do with LNC per say and more to do with general market movement, and since it has been teetering around the $2 support, it wasn't going to take a lot to make it fall over.

In the absence of any sale news, what was going to support it, when everything else is going the same direction..

Have started to implement the stretegy outlined above, and picked up first 10 % today at $1-75 
Looking for $ 1-50 now, and see where it goes..


----------



## JAKSPARA

Trading Halt? Announcement due Wed. 24th. Has anyone read the article in the AFR that they are referring to?


----------



## Mickel

JAKSPARA said:


> Trading Halt? Announcement due Wed. 24th. Has anyone read the article in the AFR that they are referring to?





The article on page 13 of  today's AFR by Michael Vaughan states that LNC is close to mandating an investment bank to sell its highly prospective Galilee Basin coal tenements in Qld and complete the stalled sale of its Emerald coal tenements after being frustrated by the slow progress of its exclusive talks with China's Yanzhou Coal.

In a 4 column half page depth article it goes on to state-

1. Together the 2 sales could generate $2 billion and that AFR understands that that LNC is in talks with UBS and Goldman Sachs JBWere about managing the twin sales.

2. Last December Yanzhou was in talks with Felix Resources for a $3 billion takeover but failure to move quickly and the drop in asset values caused the deal to collapse.

3. The Galilee deposits are between those controlled by Gina Reinhart and 
Clive Palmer. Palmer is aiming to establish a $7 B mine, railway, and port operation to export up to 40 MT pa. Reinhart is doing a feasibility study to do a similar 30MT pa operation.

4. Proceeds from any sales could be realised by the end of the year.

So its good news without anything definite about a sale.


----------



## namrog

Looking through a few other boards, and can't believe the bull**** that people post about LNC, with almost everyone anticipating some kind of big percentage moves up when it comes out of the trading halt  ??
I suppose it could happen, and expect it to be hype driven and very short lived, if it does...

Why I ask ?? If Bond and Co couldn't seal a deal after 6 months or more trying, what makes people think Goldman or some other investment bank can do it in a matter of days.
Just look at marion energy (MAE ) a very similar situation to linc with coal tennements and reserves for sale , and it's doubtfull that GS has had any success to date there..AND,   if they are succesfull, they sure as hell ain't going to do it for nothing ?? what is their commision

Will be happy to be wrong, but can't see it..
Expect more lenghty delays and empty promises ahead.
My oppinion only and dyodd...


----------



## basilio

Linc down to $1.52 after the announcement...

What a bailout. Okay so now we know that the China sale is not going ahead. Instead  LINC is putting roughly $1.5 billion dollars worth of coal tenements into the marketplace.

If we accept that the original business model of coal to diesel is still valid then the issue of if/when the other coal deposits are turned into cash still looks like cream on the cake. I suppose one could see it as Peter Bond deciding he wasn't going to be a patsy for the Chinese interests and see how much the coal tenements will bring in the broader market.


----------



## Calliope

basilio said:


> If we accept that the original business model of coal to diesel is still valid then the issue of if/when the other coal deposits are turned into cash still looks like cream on the cake.




It's not cream on the cake. It's the crux of the whole issue. Without the capital their operations are stalled.


----------



## DowJones

Picked up another parcel today at 1.62... should have waited for the sellers to do their damage first. Here we go with averaging it down....

I take it that exclusive talks have died and now its free for all 

I take heart that UBS is doing the asset sales and not some dodgy small end investment company. UBS does give the assets credibility and market reach.


----------



## Santoro

DowJones said:


> Picked up another parcel today at 1.62... should have waited for the sellers to do their damage first. Here we go with averaging it down....
> 
> I take it that exclusive talks have died and now its free for all
> 
> I take heart that UBS is doing the asset sales and not some dodgy small end investment company. UBS does give the assets credibility and market reach.




Yes dissappointing to see the sp come off but understandable given the broader market pullback and delays in effecting a sale, positives are that thermal coal iis always in demand and although coking coal has come of 58% since 2008 prices, it remains at a premium on 2007 prices.

There is no doubt that these tenement sales are required to proceed to commercialisation of the GTL plants, the bonus is that PB may end up with funding to build 2 rather than 1. 

Maybe Chincilla? Sapex? Wyoming?


----------



## namrog

Santoro said:


> There is no doubt that these tenement sales are required to proceed to commercialisation of the GTL plants, the bonus is that PB may end up with funding to build 2 rather than 1.
> 
> Maybe Chincilla? Sapex? Wyoming?




2 rather than 1 what, Santoro ? 

They are not going to be building anything, commercial or else,  until proof of concept is complete and it is openly demonstrated to be viable, IE. figures from the demo plant  showing quantity, quality etc of liquids produced..
To date nothing of the sort has happened .

Seeing the forrest from the trees seems to be a general problem for LNC shareholders at the moment, yes, while I agree the sale of the coal tennements will be great for the ballance sheet and put a floor under the share price, the big picture of turning coal into diesel is what linc is supposed to be all about, and doesn't anyone think that if the process can be proven, or is at least seen to work to some degree of success, that any ammount of big energy players or instos would be willing to back it with the necessary funding ..
As far as I'm concerned, these are the questions that need to be answered, and the sale of the tennements, are in the big picture, little more than a side show.
Have been a big admirer of Peter Bond until now, but there was no need for the spin doctoring over the last few months , should have told it straight and he would have a lot more credibility now, and, he showed little knowlede of dealing with the chinese, by blowing his mouth off in the first place by saying how great a deal it was for LNC, causing the chinese to loose face ..
That, you don't do, if you want a sound business relationship with them..

Am expecting to accumulate more shares as we drift along, because all said and done, linc have the value in the ground.

It's management needs to get back to basics.


----------



## Nero64

> Seeing the forrest from the trees seems to be a general problem for LNC shareholders at the moment, yes, while I agree the sale of the coal tennements will be great for the ballance sheet and put a floor under the share price, the big picture of turning coal into diesel is what linc is supposed to be all about, and doesn't anyone think that if the process can be proven, or is at least seen to work to some degree of success, that any ammount of big energy players or instos would be willing to back it with the necessary funding ..
> As far as I'm concerned, these are the questions that need to be answered, and the sale of the tennements, are in the big picture, little more than a side show.
> Have been a big admirer of Peter Bond until now, but there was no need for the spin doctoring over the last few months , should have told it straight and he would have a lot more credibility now, and, he showed little knowlede of dealing with the chinese, by blowing his mouth off in the first place by saying how great a deal it was for LNC, causing the chinese to loose face ..
> That, you don't do, if you want a sound business relationship with them..




Well said.



> Am expecting to accumulate more shares as we drift along, because all said and done, linc have the value in the ground.




That's what they said about AED oil. "Tapis Crude...it's the best". Didn't stop it from falling after the hype wore off. At least they produce. Linc do not produce anything and they have no money, just some assets that they can't get rid of.


----------



## basilio

Well Linc is still stumbling. Does anyone have any thoughts/insight  on the likelihood of a reasonably quick and profitable resolution to the Teresa coal fields sale? 

Or possibly any plan B's


----------



## namrog

http://www.vision6.com.au/ch/22r1qkm/774936/670f6fv45.pdf

View Linc announcement today .

For me , nothing really new in it, still in the dark re GTL performance.

I hope that blob of wax is not all they have produced to date ?? 

Second 10% at $1-50 coming up  ??


----------



## Mickel

LNC up 14c yesterday and another 12c so far today to $1.69 !!!

Has anyone heard any positive news ?


----------



## ColB

> Originally posted by Mickel
> 
> "...Has anyone heard any positive news ?..."




Currently $1.80!! Thats positive!!  Reminds me of the LINC of old.  Good volume too. Just waiting for the speeding ticket.


----------



## select

Nero64 said:


> Well said.
> 
> 
> 
> That's what they said about AED oil. "Tapis Crude...it's the best". Didn't stop it from falling after the hype wore off. At least they produce. Linc do not produce anything and they have no money, just some assets that they can't get rid of.




I have noticed there is talk of Linc having no cash and a cap raising is on its way etc etc

BUT....Linc have a $36 million convertible note facility with BBY. See the announcement on 23 December 2008.

To date, 13 convertible notes have been purchased with 6 being issued after the 3rd quarter. 23 notes are still to be issued which will raise a further $23 million.

The convertible note facility is intended to fund Linc comfortably thru to mid 2010.

Talk of a cap raising is a bit misguided I reckon.

Good luck


----------



## basilio

Pretty amazing swings  today. Up to 1.85.  Down to 1.61 And spikes in the middle.  WTF............. ?


----------



## noirua

Linc Energy (LNC) are in trading halt pending an announcement from the company to be made in the next few days.


----------



## skyQuake

noirua said:


> Linc Energy (LNC) are in trading halt pending an announcement from the company to be made in the next few days.




capital raising @ $1.40 or less depending on the bookbuilding process. Should come out of halt tomorrow


----------



## jono1887

skyQuake said:


> capital raising @ $1.40 or less depending on the bookbuilding process. Should come out of halt tomorrow




I'd expect it to be less than $1.4. Didn't the halt say til Monday?

If I wanted to participate in the raising, its too late to buy now isnt it?


----------



## namrog

jono1887 said:


> I'd expect it to be less than $1.4. Didn't the halt say til Monday?
> 
> If I wanted to participate in the raising, its too late to buy now isnt it?




Jono , Usually it's the case that when these announcements come out, that Unless your already a holder, it's too late, but in this case it doesn't matter, as the cap raising is aimed at sophisticated investors and institutions.( unless you're one of these )

You have to ask why do they need to raise cash in this manner anyway, at this time?? especially as they are supposed to be funded until mid 2010 ? ,
It says 2 things to me, that a sale of the coal tennements is no where near, or they are setting up their sophicticated mates to reap the bennefits of a sale announcement.
Either ways, I wouldn't worry about getting some around $1-40 , chartwise it looks to me that you could get them a lot closer to a dollar a share.
Thats just my oppinion though.


----------



## jono1887

namrog said:


> You have to ask why do they need to raise cash in this manner anyway, at this time?? especially as they are supposed to be funded until mid 2010 ? ,




Maybe they're just feeling left out with all those other companies doing cap raisings :

So will this institutional cap raising bring up or down the share price?


----------



## antzlovinit

jono1887 said:


> Maybe they're just feeling left out with all those other companies doing cap raisings :
> 
> So will this institutional cap raising bring up or down the share price?




All buyers hope down! if it drops 50c then im in, otherwise. its been almost a year and still havnt sold Emerald. Ovisoly somethin rong with management team. So they get somebody else to sell it for them lol. That just brings the profits down for linc doesnt it.

I see it as, Emerald going nowhere, so need money to build the plant. Lets do a placement of shares so we get a extra few dollars and make out cashflow report look even better!


----------



## Nero64

> Talk of a cap raising is a bit misguided I reckon.




Maybe not so misguided. 

We've hired UBS to do our selling for us!..lol

I would advise to stop averaging down until something has been sold and the market responds positively.


----------



## Alex O'Grady

I find it disappointing that LINC has not gone to ALL the shareholders if they are looking to capital raise.  I feel this reflects badly on the company management. This is a company with a story and has alot of smaller investors that I am sure would be interested in increasing their portfolio of LINC (even if this is somewhat misguided).  Appears they just want/need the cash - which is understandable - but not going to the shareholders is a mistake I feel.


----------



## Gunter

With the current big coal grabs by the chinese (FLX) I wonder how this would affect LNC and their 4bn tonnes sitting in the ground. Trouble is it looks like they are making plays for established producers as Galillee would require significant investment just to get the stuff out of the ground.

Still, the share price heads south.


----------



## mexican

Gunter, the Chinese company ( Yanzhou ) that has put in a takeover bid for FLX is the same company that was looking at buying Teresa.
Thing's are very much picking up in the coal industry, you would be amazed how many projects are coming on line in the Bowen basin. 
One thing I can't work out is if Linc are offering $1.40 a for SSP, then why are people selling below that price?
Can anyone shed some light on this?


----------



## mortsta

probably the oil price...some have it too high...some are calling it down to $30...8.5 mill less oild per day being consumed globally..


----------



## pommie

Hi everyone, I bought into linc about 18 months ago at $4.50. Share price has dropped considerably. Can any one shed any light on there predictions to when and if this share price will ever acchieve this level again. I would appreciate some feedback.


----------



## kitehigh

pommie said:


> Hi everyone, I bought into linc about 18 months ago at $4.50. Share price has dropped considerably. Can any one shed any light on there predictions to when and if this share price will ever acchieve this level again. I would appreciate some feedback.




458 days. :

I'm joking, as I wouldn't have a clue when it will reach that price again and to be honest nobody really knows either.  

Its a good lesson in why stop losses need to be set and acted on.


----------



## mortsta

Curious...i've been a holder from the start. sold 10000 about 3 months ago. i still have 11,000. i recieved a letter from linc regarding the sPP.' then a chick rang me from linc asking if i was participating??
why???


----------



## jono1887

mortsta said:


> Curious...i've been a holder from the start. sold 10000 about 3 months ago. i still have 11,000. i recieved a letter from linc regarding the sPP.' then a chick rang me from linc asking if i was participating??
> why???




I thought it was an institutional SPP for institutional holders or something like that....not for ordinary stock holders? or is there another one?


----------



## ColB

It is for ordinary stock holders Jono at $1.40 per share which is 5c cheaper than what they closed at today.  Who knows, you'd probably pick em up tomorrow for $1.40 anyway.


----------



## jono1887

ColB said:


> It is for ordinary stock holders Jono at $1.40 per share which is 5c cheaper than what they closed at today.  Who knows, you'd probably pick em up tomorrow for $1.40 anyway.




well then whats the point? theres hardly any discount to that offer? just get them of the market where you wont have to wait a fortnight to get the shares...


----------



## ColB

> Originally poste by *Jono*
> 
> "well then whats the point? theres hardly any discount to that offer? just get them of the market where you wont have to wait a fortnight to get the shares..."




Very perceptive Jono  Anyone could have bought them sub $1.40 over the last week or so.  BUT!  What if you as a holder saw that they were $1.60 just prior to the close of offer (3-4 Sept I think)  Would you pay $1.40 then


----------



## Jonathan111

glads262 said:


> Luckypaul: Check out past announcements for LNC. Pentland has JORC figure quoted from drilling results received late last year I think. Most analysis back then was saying a potential value would be around $100 million.
> 
> Galilee - I think they are drilling this at the moment/in the near future. They have no figures on this one, so it will sell for a fairly low value at the moment.
> 
> I wouldn't be putting too much focus on how much they are going to get for all three tenements. It has now boiled down to whether they will get anything at all in the current environment.
> This is why LNC have thrown in the two other tenements - they are throwing everything at this transaction in order to get a deal done.
> 
> If you must focus on the figures - I would say $1billion is most likely for all three (as this is a fire sale at the bottom of the market)
> $1.5 billion would be more of an acceptable value, but less likely.
> $2billion would probably be a "market value" based on the JORC resources, but this is HIGHLY unlikely.
> 
> BASIC analysis on the SP - if sale is $1billion, probably $3-4 per share
> If sale is 1.5billion, probably $4-5 per share
> If sale is 2 billion, probably $5-6 per share.
> If sale is less than $1billion, probably $2.5-$3 would be it.
> 
> If no sale.............. SP will be around $1.
> 
> Its a risk/reward between the sale going through or not.
> 
> Most likely if sale goes through, you may double your money...
> If sale falls through, you will do in half your money short term...... but in the long run - a sale will happen at some stage to someone for some amount when things improve globally.
> 
> Hopefully, with the resources prices (coal price) improving by the day, this will give China some incentive to get a deal done. They have been holding out watching things deteriorate. But I don't really expect them to give up the opportunity to purchase these tenements at a firesale price. I reckon they will buy them, its just a matter of who cracks first on the price - Peter Bond or Xinwen.





Check out this video on Linc Energy!

Cant wait for the sale! However i will still hold if it goes through!

Linc Energy featured on the Economic Report

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvwo5yGKWBs


----------



## ColB

One day in the not too distant future this thing will go off!!  

Why?  

When they sell their coal assets, build some GTL or gasification plants with the sale money and hopefully with the oil price going up (but not at our bowser)

This latest snippet from a Wyoming Newspaper for any 'believers' who are still left. 







> *Coal Gasification Plan Advances* [Edited version]
> 
> Casper Star-Tribune - Wednesday, September 2, 2009 12:00 am
> 
> CASPER - Casper-based GasTech Inc. has inked a deal with Linc Energy of Australia to launch an underground coal gasification demonstration project in the Powder River Basin.
> 
> Linc acquired dozens of state coal leases with an estimated 7 billion tons of state coal with an energy equivalent of about 20 billion barrels of oil, according to GasTech chairman and CEO John Wold.
> 
> Within 12 years, half of the Powder River Basin's annual production could come from coal seams deeper than 500 feet, according to industry officials.
> 
> Linc has operated underground coal gasification pilot facilities in Queensland, Australia, since 1999, and is recognized in the industry as a leader in the technology.
> 
> "We are particularly pleased to bring our underground coal technology to Wyoming. We join GasTech in a program in your Powder River Basin which can demonstrate a major new world energy supply," Linc chairman and managing director Peter Bond said.
> 
> Wold said he believes the Powder River Basin project could lead to the first commercial-scale underground coal gasification project in the world. He also noted that the project is *entirely privately funded.*  Linc is expected to decide on a *location for facilities within months and begin building facilities within a year.*
> 
> Source: For full article see....
> 
> www.billingsgazette.com/news/state-...cle_e1b877be-977b-11de-ae28-001cc4c002e0.html


----------



## mexican

Never in doubt Colb. Just waiting...waiting....waiting, like yourself.
Good article as well Colb...cheers!


----------



## grace

mexican said:


> Never in doubt Colb. Just waiting...waiting....waiting, like yourself.
> Good article as well Colb...cheers!




Yes, Colb, I'm waiting too.  I've been with Linc for 3 years now, just lightened my holding that's all.  Good to hear from you mexican.


----------



## Mickel

ColB said:


> One day in the not too distant future this thing will go off!!
> 
> Why?
> 
> When they sell their coal assets, build some GTL or gasification plants with the sale money and hopefully with the oil price going up (but not at our bowser)
> 
> This latest snippet from a Wyoming Newspaper for any 'believers' who are still left.




Great find in Wyoming, ColB. 

ASX ann by LINC this morning of this US deal together with the pending close of the SPP at $1.40 should push up the SP.

Currently $1.43. I'm a long term holder.


----------



## SUNYA2006

Mickel said:


> Great find in Wyoming, ColB.
> 
> ASX ann by LINC this morning of this US deal together with the pending close of the SPP at $1.40 should push up the SP.
> 
> Currently $1.43. I'm a long term holder.




I do not understand why LNC is so weaker in comparison with other UCG stock such as CNX,LBY,etc. In current market circumstance, I think $2 or more is its normal price.


----------



## The Dealer

Just wanted thoughts from those who read the 19 page presentation.
First time I have heard them mention hydrogeology. Are they looking at geothermal in the future?
Also said that they may have significant CSG in the SA tenement. That would be nice! A few 3p's wood be good for SP.


----------



## Jonathan111

It looks like it has broken the ST down trend.. and my go up towards 1.90.. if the sale goes through, it will probably go up alot more.


----------



## springhill

SUNYA2006 said:


> I do not understand why LNC is so weaker in comparison with other UCG stock such as CNX,LBY,etc. In current market circumstance, I think $2 or more is its normal price.




IMO people may have attributed too much 'emotional' value in LNC. There was alot of hype surrounding the coal tenemant sale, but the delay and lessening of the prospect of the sale has had a deflating effect and taken its toll, and people may not be looking at the value of the operations, which is what got LNC to its $5 pricetag in the first place.
A classic case of the psychology of the markets. Not all things are about fundamentals.
Was mulling over the value of LNC today and am considering a purchase at some stage, funds allowing.
My


----------



## Jonathan111

springhill said:


> IMO people may have attributed too  There was alot of hype surrounding the coal tenemant sale, but the delay and lessening of the prospect of the sale has had a deflating effect and taken its toll, and people may not be looking at the value of the operations, which is what got My




Really good news! 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=azks0o1exG6g

Where will this share price go now?  


“We’re getting strong attention, and we’re getting offers on the table,” Peter Bond, chief executive of the company, said in a phone interview today. “We’re quietly confident of a strong outcome.”


----------



## Jonathan111

currently sitting at 1.69.. 
up 12.67%

Linc on the MOVE!!!

Hoping the sale goes through around $1b - 1.5billion


----------



## SUNYA2006

Jonathan111 said:


> currently sitting at 1.69..
> up 12.67%
> 
> Linc on the MOVE!!!
> 
> Hoping the sale goes through around $1b - 1.5billion




According to speech content of CEO, I think sale outcome will exceed 1.5b. If it is true, do you think stock price can reach $5 in a short time?


----------



## Mickel

SUNYA2006 said:


> According to speech content of CEO, I think sale outcome will exceed 1.5b. If it is true, do you think stock price can reach $5 in a short time?




Peter Bond's statement-  “We’re quietly confident of a strong outcome.” - in my view, would equate to around A$1B for the Teresa tenement. Anything over that would be a bonus.
With around 465m shares, A$1B would equate to about $2.15 per share. However, the A$1B also provides the full financing for the gas to liquids commercial plant in Sth Aust. This would add more value to the S/P but I don't consider the P and L figure from the Analyst's report can be used until the plant is operational.

With a billion $ sale I would be happy with a $4 to $4.50 S/P in the short term BUT, "Show me the money first", with a hard and fast sales contract.


----------



## mexican

Here is the article in the States, that Bondy mentioned in the asx response. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS148274+15-Sep-2009+BW20090915


----------



## Mickel

Article in The Australian today states in part-

Mr Bond told The Australian yesterday the sale was a two-tier process, which included the bidder's statement before moving into detailed negotiations.

"We are just concluding the first bidder's statement, where we have had a number of good bids on the coal assets, and we are moving into the second phase, where we get into the detailed negotiations," he said.

And again-

Mr Bond said news flow around the sale of the assets had always been a strong catalyst for the stock and the company.

"We are aware of that and that is why we are working hard to fulfil the outcome," he said, adding it was likely to be up to *five weeks before an announcement was made.*

"I can't help what happened with the global financial crisis and I can't help what happened with China. I know what is happening in reality and I know (the asset sale) is going to happen."

The chief executive said he was happy to let the UBS process run.

"It's a good strong process and I'm content to see it roll out over the next few weeks.

"It was always going to be a three to four-month process and it is headed in the right direction."

Link- http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26088310-5005200,00.html

As I said in a post last night- Show me the money in the form of a hard and fast contract before we start realising S/P increases.

I'm a long term holder.


----------



## grace

It seems PB has had his mind on other things of late...squabbling over a $10 000 cleaning bill to go to the supreme court with the old owner of his Fig Tree Pocket mansion on the Brisbane River.  What's $10k, when it cost $9.5mill.  Apparently, when he took over, he could still see footprints on the floor.......CM today.


----------



## Nero64

> "We are aware of that and that is why we are working hard to fulfil the outcome," he said, adding it was likely to be up to five weeks before an announcement was made.




LOL!

PB likes putting timeframes to things but he rarely keeps the schedule.

Anybody buy in at $1.40? 

A day or two before Sept the 4th the share price fell to $1.37. Was going to buy in but didn't want to tie it up and wait another unknown years for the sale.


----------



## Jonathan111

Nero64 said:


> Anybody buy in at $1.40?
> 
> A day or two before Sept the 4th the share price fell to $1.37. Was going to buy in but didn't want to tie it up and wait another unknown years for the sale.





Yeah i bought some for my 11 month old son at 1.365 holding very long term (5 - 10yrs)

I bought some for myself at 1.385 and then some more at 1.41. (medium term 6 months - 1 year)

I also bought a small parcel at the end of the day, last friday at 1.675 (hold for up to 2 months, target $2.20 - $2.85[BBY target] )


----------



## Mickel

Nero64 said:


> LOL!
> 
> PB likes putting timeframes to things but he rarely keeps the schedule.
> 
> Anybody buy in at $1.40?
> 
> A day or two before Sept the 4th the share price fell to $1.37. Was going to buy in but didn't want to tie it up and wait another unknown years for the sale.




I bought some more at $1.35 on 12/8 as I wasn't sure I'd get as many as I wanted at $1.40 and grabbed the discounted price while I could.

S/P up 15c today to $1.88 without any announcement. Any ideas???


----------



## Kalvin

Yes, I bought in serially from 1.38 to 1.42, and am glad the analysis supported this approach!  My analysis suggests resistance at 2.25, but I suspect it now has sufficient momentum (with the push from California, amongst other places for green sources of energy that underground coal gasification projects provide) to blast straight through this.
We will see.


----------



## laperouselad

Mickel said:


> S/P up 15c today to $1.88 without any announcement. Any ideas???




Hi all... my first post and I love the site....been rock spidering for a while!   Mickel, with a bit of luck the SP will go up another 15c tomorrow.   (I have a few shares and bought in the SPP)  One thing I am interested about, and I have been following this thread for a little while, is that the SP dropped a bit when the Chinese coal sale fell through, but it had been out of favour for a while (I note the SP was $5+ exactly a year ago).   Is the 12mth drop heavily due to the GFC rather than the recent tenements sales or are there other factors?  And now that Mr Bond has signalled the coal sales are imminent, are these recent SP jumps a sign that LNC is headed back to $3 plus in the relatively short term?   I would be interested in opinions.   

As for you question Mickel, is the fact that the SPP is done and dusted a reason for these sudden rises?


----------



## laperouselad

....oh, and another thing, are any of you LNC people jumping on the CXY bandwagon?   They, too, are in the middle of a SPP and comments from the CEO (who I understand had a previous affiliation with LNC in one from or another) imply that they are undervalued by the market.   CXY has its own page, but I am interested in whether LNC people know about this company....


----------



## ColB

Welcome Laperouselad!  

In regard to your last 2 posts I offer you my perspective on the company LNC.  

The GFC was a huge factor in LNC's crash from $5 plus back to a low of sub $1 due to the price of oil falling from a high of $150 ish back to a low of $30 ish.  

LNC's technology to produce Gas to Liquid (GTL) will cost them in the vicinity of $28-38 a barrell so you can see when the price of oil crashed their product was not really viable.  

Now that we're back at $68-70 per barrell it's a different story.

Their set up costs to build the GTL Plants are huge and the original heads of agreement with a Chinese company to sell their coal assets at $1.5 Billion dollars fell through due to the GFC and the value of their coal dropping by at least half.

They have since proven up further coal reserves and now not only the Chinese are looking for further coal supplies but India as well.

The coal sale is in the negotiation process where an unknown number of bidders have taken part and it is only a matter of time before the big announcement comes out and that is one of the main reasons for it's recent SP rise as investors/speculators want to get on board before the announcement.

My guess is that the SP will rise somewhere between $1 and $2 as a result of the sale but that is purely speculative.  Some on this forum have given an educated valuation using certain formula that suggests a similar rise.

LNC have great assets in Sth Australia, QLD, Wyoming (USA) and JV and MOU with Chinese, Vietnamese and US based companies.

They have a solid future with one of the main drawbacks being the huge movement against the coal industry in general worldwide.

LNC have their own Laboratory for a number of reasons one of which I'm fairly certain is the research into carbon capture and storage.  Many have tried and many are still trying to refine that technology to adhere to target emissions set by government and other bodies.  If LNC get that right it another huge plus.

Looks like you've got your wish today with another 13-15c rise in LNC's SP.

As for Cougar Energy (CXY), another good story in the wings as it develops it's Kingaroy Power Station in QLD over the next 12 months or so.  We need those income producing assets to make us rich

I bought a heap of CXY at .096 the day before it went into a trading halt.  Had the opportunity on the day of purchase to turn over at .099 but was greedy and hanging out for more.  After trading halt it opened up around .083 and my parcel was looking ugly but as you can see now it's back around what I paid for it.

Hang on for the ride with both

Regards ColB


----------



## Mickel

laperouselad said:


> Hi all... my first post and I love the site....been rock spidering for a while!   Mickel, with a bit of luck the SP will go up another 15c tomorrow.   (I have a few shares and bought in the SPP)  One thing I am interested about, and I have been following this thread for a little while, is that the SP dropped a bit when the Chinese coal sale fell through, but it had been out of favour for a while (I note the SP was $5+ exactly a year ago).   Is the 12mth drop heavily due to the GFC rather than the recent tenements sales or are there other factors?  And now that Mr Bond has signalled the coal sales are imminent, are these recent SP jumps a sign that LNC is headed back to $3 plus in the relatively short term?   I would be interested in opinions.
> 
> As for you question Mickel, is the fact that the SPP is done and dusted a reason for these sudden rises?




Congrats Laper... on your prediction of a 15c rise today. S/P currently up 14c in the first hour. 

Also, I think you're right about the change in investment sentiment,SPP done and dusted, and imminent coal tenement sales. These 3 things together plus the fact the coal sales should fully finance the commercial plant construction could ignite the rocket fuse. 

Blast off should occur when a definite sales contract is signed and probably overshoot the previous high.


----------



## awg

I am a long term trader and holder of this stock.

A true believer in the future of this technology

one thing is this company has a history of overly optimistic anns, which I believe to be one reason it has been oversold

before the capital raising, ( i took part, and bought more before at below $1.40) and they were starting to look a little short of ready cash.

If you hunt back thru this thread you will see some good analysis estimating NAV of $3 to $3.50 conservative per share, if they sell coal tenement for 1B to 1.5B

Their projected cost of diesel/avgas is $30 barrel, so with oil prices stabilising around $70 things look more optimistic.

another reason they tanked is their has been a definite paucity of info on how the refining technology is working out, unlike CNX, which I also hold, up more than 100%.

I think the Chinese overplayed their hand, hoping to buy at firesale,( and you cant really blame them for trying as the total value of the company was well under $1B at SP of $1.38)  now India is on the hunt for coal, they will have to pay a reasonable price


----------



## Mickel

P Bond's statement to The Australian- refer my post on this thread 18/9- that it is likely to be 5 wks before an announcement is made on coal tenement sales (ie late October), coincides well with his ASX statement of 24/8 where he stated "Linc Energy remains committed to completing an initial resource statement in accordance with the JORC Code by November." This is in relation to the Galilee tenement. 

This timing would allow for a combined sale announcement of both Teresa and Galilee tenements. With a target resource of 5B tonnes for Galilee any combined sale price would be massive.

Given that no adverse sentiment in the market happens over the next month,
I think LNC's S/P will continue to move up in expectation of a confirmed sale, whether for Teresa alone or combined with Galilee.


----------



## SUNYA2006

Mickel said:


> P Bond's statement to The Australian- refer my post on this thread 18/9- that it is likely to be 5 wks before an announcement is made on coal tenement sales (ie late October), coincides well with his ASX statement of 24/8 where he stated "Linc Energy remains committed to completing an initial resource statement in accordance with the JORC Code by November." This is in relation to the Galilee tenement.
> 
> This timing would allow for a combined sale announcement of both Teresa and Galilee tenements. With a target resource of 5B tonnes for Galilee any combined sale price would be massive.
> 
> Given that no adverse sentiment in the market happens over the next month,
> I think LNC's S/P will continue to move up in expectation of a confirmed sale, whether for Teresa alone or combined with Galilee.



Last two times in falling negotiation with Chinese Mining company to sell Teresa asset , LNC had quotation of 1.5 billion.  This time sale asset includes 3 coal assets and PB has already said he believed a strong outcome will be achieved. Do you believe sale price can reach 2 billions or even more?


----------



## Mickel

SUNYA2006 said:


> Last two times in falling negotiation with Chinese Mining company to sell Teresa asset , LNC had quotation of 1.5 billion.  This time sale asset includes 3 coal assets and PB has already said he believed a strong outcome will be achieved. Do you believe sale price can reach 2 billions or even more?




I think it was only the first MOU with the Chinese that $1.5B was mentioned for Teresa. The Pentland asset is quite small in comparison and one analyst suggested its sale could involve delayed payments. Check the analysts reports on the Linc website.

However, with a combined sale of Teresa and Galilee, and IF the JORC statement for Galilee comes up to expectations, the sale price could easily exceed $2B IMHO.


----------



## Kalvin

A 10 SP is a big call from a baseline of 1.40, especially given the highest share price the stock has ever achieved is <$6.00. Stranger things have happened and UCG is sexy right now, but its a stretch. I'd say 2.50 within 2 weeks and 5.00, tops, within 6 months would be more realistic from an analytic perspective, assuming Don Voelte's comments about UCG aren't generally thought correct. And they may well be.


----------



## laperouselad

Kalvin said:


> A 10 SP is a big call from a baseline of 1.40, especially given the highest share price the stock has ever achieved is <$6.00. Stranger things have happened and UCG is sexy right now, but its a stretch. I'd say 2.50 within 2 weeks and 5.00, tops, within 6 months would be more realistic from an analytic perspective, assuming Don Voelte's comments about UCG aren't generally thought correct. And they may well be.




From Kalvin's tone, I get the impression that he is endeavouring to temper some of the unbriddled enthusiasm for this stock.   Lets face it, surely, if the SP was "guaranteed" to reach even $2.50 in 6 weeks(based on the sale of coal tenements), wouldnt analysts be jumping all over it and advising clients to buy?  I except the majority of those following this thread are converts to the Linc story but is there a risk of 'groupthink' here, tending to be over positive?   I got smashed in the GFC following the advice of experts so I am now ultra synical... I like this stock but if it were about to explode, wouldnt it be going up now and not backwards, like it did today?  Oh, it's lateish and I have been drinking....


----------



## Kalvin

Hi,
Don't get me wrong, I love the concept of ugc and love LNC, and hold a lot of this stock (as well as CNX), and would love to see it hit 10.00 in a week or so.  I am just pessimistic that it will do so, and also take Don Voelte's (WPL's CEO) that natural gas, of which we have truckloads, is cheaper.  And cheaper, in this context, means less energy required to extract / utilise it.  We'll see...


----------



## Nero64

I think the surprise factor is taken out of this stock. It's like the boy who cried wolf, and PB has cried sale for the last year or so. 

Maybe the institutions will accumulate when more certaintly is made public to the market and not just some quote from the Newspaper. 

I like to compare Linc with other companies in the market. Two come to mind. maybe others here can think of some other sales

NHC which sold itls New Saraji coal assets for 2.45B. It's sp went from $1.50 or so to $5. It has 800m shares listed.

AJL whcih sold its Gloucester basin CSG assets from 370M. It's shares went from $3-$5. It only has 66M shares listed. 

LNC after its capital raising has 65M in cash. It has 460M shares listed. 
Assuming the sale generates 1B-1.5B I see it being capped to below $3, because it still is essentially a producer of a non mainstream product. Its UGC technology has not won it any big contracts hence it does not have stable earnings. Long term I don't know what the price would be. That depends on the popularity of UCG. 

My plan is to accumulate in bits and pieces under $2 then pounce when the sale is final. Maybe then exit with a profit and leave a core holding for the future in case it goes beyond $3.


----------



## roofa

I liked PBs “watch this space” with regards to the possibility of future power generation, just made me wonder if he has been talking with big Clive?


----------



## laperouselad

Did anyone see the article in Fin Review on Friday?   I heard about it only but apparently it was front page. It starts....

_"Guidelines to leave no reason for foreign fear"

The federal government's move to establish new limits on foreign investment in the resources sector has drawn a mixed reaction and uncertainty about how rigidly the new approach will be applied._

I havent read the whole article (I havent subscribed to Fin Review) but apparently it talks about the Government changing laws to prevent foreign companies owning more than 49% of resource assets.   

If this is true, will these have serious implications for Linc with respect to who can buy the coal tenements?   If the rules suddenly change, Linc might have to diversify into open cut coal mines with a partner!!!

I remind you all that I am a complete novice with a small holding only.


----------



## SUNYA2006

Nero64 said:


> I think the surprise factor is taken out of this stock. It's like the boy who cried wolf, and PB has cried sale for the last year or so.
> 
> Maybe the institutions will accumulate when more certaintly is made public to the market and not just some quote from the Newspaper.
> 
> I like to compare Linc with other companies in the market. Two come to mind. maybe others here can think of some other sales
> 
> NHC which sold itls New Saraji coal assets for 2.45B. It's sp went from $1.50 or so to $5. It has 800m shares listed.
> 
> AJL whcih sold its Gloucester basin CSG assets from 370M. It's shares went from $3-$5. It only has 66M shares listed.
> 
> LNC after its capital raising has 65M in cash. It has 460M shares listed.
> Assuming the sale generates 1B-1.5B I see it being capped to below $3, because it still is essentially a producer of a non mainstream product. Its UGC technology has not won it any big contracts hence it does not have stable earnings. Long term I don't know what the price would be. That depends on the popularity of UCG.
> 
> My plan is to accumulate in bits and pieces under $2 then pounce when the sale is final. Maybe then exit with a profit and leave a core holding for the future in case it goes beyond $3.




In comparison with New Saraji coal assets (700m tons) bought by  BHP in  2.45B last year, total three coal resource of LNC is more enormous (emerald:852m,Galilee:5.0-5.5b ,Pentland:266m). So do you think what the reasonable price of three assets are? Maybe $5b is a option.


----------



## Slipperz

BHP would have to be the best option for Linc if they have indeed put in a bid. No need for FIRB approval,and they are well cashed up and on the acquisition trail as well. Interesting times ahead for LNC


----------



## Jonathan111

Short selling over the last couple of days has pushed the price down to 1.60 and as a result triggered off many stops. Over a million shares were traded in a single sale after 4.30pm yesterday...   
http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt 

9.30pm this Thursday 
Peter Bond will be on Channel 9's new show "The Secret Millionaire"  :


----------



## SUNYA2006

Jonathan111 said:


> Short selling over the last couple of days has pushed the price down to 1.60 and as a result triggered off many stops. Over a million shares were traded in a single sale after 4.30pm yesterday...
> http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt
> 
> 9.30pm this Thursday
> Peter Bond will be on Channel 9's new show "The Secret Millionaire"  :



Market is skeptical about the news in Sep 17 because it disppointed them for several times. PB has said it will upon 5 weeks that annoncement of coal sale will released. There is two weeks left and I am just waiting .


----------



## Jonathan111

Hi SUNYA2006 

How do you know he said 5 weeks?

 I am hopiong to catch the tv interview tommorrow night to see if there are any more clues...


----------



## SUNYA2006

Jonathan111 said:


> Hi SUNYA2006
> 
> How do you know he said 5 weeks?
> 
> I am hopiong to catch the tv interview tommorrow night to see if there are any more clues...



Article in The Australian today states in part-

Mr Bond told The Australian yesterday the sale was a two-tier process, which included the bidder's statement before moving into detailed negotiations.

"We are just concluding the first bidder's statement, where we have had a number of good bids on the coal assets, and we are moving into the second phase, where we get into the detailed negotiations," he said.

And again-

Mr Bond said news flow around the sale of the assets had always been a strong catalyst for the stock and the company.

"We are aware of that and that is why we are working hard to fulfil the outcome," he said, adding it was likely to be up to five weeks before an announcement was made.

"I can't help what happened with the global financial crisis and I can't help what happened with China. I know what is happening in reality and I know (the asset sale) is going to happen."

The chief executive said he was happy to let the UBS process run.

"It's a good strong process and I'm content to see it roll out over the next few weeks.

"It was always going to be a three to four-month process and it is headed in the right direction."

Link- http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...005200,00.html


----------



## SUNYA2006

Jonathan111 said:


> Hi SUNYA2006
> 
> How do you know he said 5 weeks?
> 
> I am hopiong to catch the tv interview tommorrow night to see if there are any more clues...




Hi,guy: Do you have some new information about coal sale procedure? Hopefully it will be released as auickly as possible.


----------



## Mickel

SUNYA2006 said:


> Article in The Australian today states in part-
> 
> Mr Bond told The Australian yesterday the sale was a two-tier process, which included the bidder's statement before moving into detailed negotiations.
> 
> "We are just concluding the first bidder's statement, where we have had a number of good bids on the coal assets, and we are moving into the second phase, where we get into the detailed negotiations," he said.
> 
> And again-
> 
> Mr Bond said news flow around the sale of the assets had always been a strong catalyst for the stock and the company.
> 
> "We are aware of that and that is why we are working hard to fulfil the outcome," he said, adding it was likely to be up to five weeks before an announcement was made.
> 
> "I can't help what happened with the global financial crisis and I can't help what happened with China. I know what is happening in reality and I know (the asset sale) is going to happen."
> 
> The chief executive said he was happy to let the UBS process run.
> 
> "It's a good strong process and I'm content to see it roll out over the next few weeks.
> 
> "It was always going to be a three to four-month process and it is headed in the right direction."
> 
> Link- http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...005200,00.html




The above link to the article in The Australian appears to be broken. To avoid any confusion, the article was in The Australian on 18 Sept - refer my post # 1000 on 18 Sept.

PB did say UP TO FIVE WEEKS but, as others have said, his statements as to likely dates for significant announcements have been overly optimistic on a number of occasions.


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.casperjournal.com/articles/2009/10/14/news/news50.txt (and further below)

"Mining accesses only five percent of coal resources, while 95 percent is up to 5,000 feet below the surface."


"...adapting technologies used in Australia to the Powder River Basin..."

"The energy we're talking about is just absolutely immense," said John Wold, CEO and chairman of Gas Tech, Inc. "The coal resources in that area have an energy equivalent that is more than the energy equivalent in all of the known world oil and gas."

"The BP Statistical review of World Energy predicts that oil will run out within decades and gas will not last the century at present rates of use. But the U.S. alone may have enough coal for more than 200 years."

"In September 2009, Linc Energy acquired 92,059 acres of GasTech Inc coal tenements based in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming in the United States. This acquisition is part of Linc Energy’s strategic global expansion program to provide coal-rich countries with cleaner energy solutions."
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/powderriver.php



*Gas Tech on cutting edge of coal energy*
http://www.casperjournal.com/articles/2009/10/14/news/news50.txt

by Elysia Conner
Tuesday, October 13, 2009 2:50 PM MDT

Mining barely scratches the surface of the world's coal resources, especially in Wyoming. Converting coal to gas far beneath the surface has proven cheaper, cleaner and safer than other existing methods of coal energy production, according to reports of an Australian underground coal gasification project.

That company, Linc Energy of Australia, considered the world leader in this new technology and Gas Tech, Inc., based in downtown Casper will begin a demonstration operation in the Powder River Basin within two and a half years.



They currently are working on adapting technologies used in Australia to the Powder River Basin.

"The energy we're talking about is just absolutely immense," said John Wold, CEO and chairman of Gas Tech, Inc. "The coal resources in that area have an energy equivalent that is more than the energy equivalent in all of the known world oil and gas."

"This is just the Powder River Basin; this doesn't include what you may have down in South Western Wyoming and South Central Wyoming and so forth."

Gas Tech gained a coal resource leasehold in excess of 20 billion tons of coal buried beneath state owned land in the Powder River Basin, 70 miles north of Casper. Linc Energy acquired seven billion tons of the coal.


Wold became an independent oil and gas producer in 1950 with Wold Oil and Gas, now headed by his sons, Peter and Jack. His career includes heading companies in Wyoming's major minerals: oil, gas, coal, soda ash and uranium.

It is this last that he sees as the future of energy.



While coal is abundant now, fossil fuels are finite and will run out. Wold believes nuclear power is the most feasible replacement.

The BP Statistical review of World Energy predicts that oil will run out within decades and gas will not last the century at present rates of use. But the U.S. alone may have enough coal for more than 200 years.

But you have to go deep to get it. Mining accesses only five percent of coal resources, while 95 percent is up to 5,000 feet below the surface.

"That makes coals the richest fossil fuel in the world, with the biggest reserves." Wold said. "And 95 percent of it is not being used!"

To his knowledge, Gas Tech's is the only underground coal gasification program gong on in the world that is 100 percent financed privately.

All of the others, Wold said, are leaning entirely on governmental subsidies of one sort or another.

One advantage of that is the speed that allows. Some UCG projects are in the planning stages, while Gas Tech is the only UCG program actively underway in the United States.

"We think that this will be the first significant demonstration of UCG technology in America," Wold said, "and could lead to the first commercial adaptation for electric power or coal-to-liquid results."

The electric power technology is proven although the FischernTropsch process to yield liquid fuels "is a trickier situation," according to Wold.

Wold’s long-term goal is multi-billion dollar energy company investments and "clean coal; some underground coal gasification which can be yielding a very significant percentage of the electrical power consumed in the United States."

Past and future of UGC

Before World War II, Russians were first to gasify coal underground for commercial use. Two of the in-seam gasification projects still are in use. The United Kingdom carried out earlier pursuits on a smaller scale.

UCG technology has not yet been harnessed on a large commercial basis.

"One of the big new developments since World War II," Wold said, "has been the ability that we have developed in the oil and gas industry of drilling horizontal holes so you can link up, underground, two vertical holes."

The second half of the 20th century saw a few more experiments, including three in Wyoming.

In the 1980s, Williams Brothers experimented in Hannah Basin, Gulf Oil in steep coal beds south of Rawlins and Atlantic Richfield had an experimental operation south of Gillette.

Wold remembers when Exxon and other companies were interested in coal as oil was predicted soon to be exhausted.

Gas Tech was the development of coal studies that Wold made in the late 1960s, he said, and turned some 480,000 acres of coal leases in the Powder River Basin to Exxon.

Many major companies bought coal resources, but dropped them when they realized how much oil there as in the Middle East and Africa.

The world is going through another cycle of concern over resources today, Wold said, since we are using it faster than we are finding it.

International interest is growing again and with about 15 programs currently going on in the world.

"We have between a quarter and a third of the total world's coal resources here in the United States," Wold said.

"Those of us who are involved underground coal gasification feel it can give America energy independence."

According the British Petroleum studies, the Powder River Basin has the equivalent of 1.5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent energy in place. The total oil reserves worldwide are about 1.3 billion barrels of oil.

Interest for other energy resources is surging.

"But the fact of the matter is that over 70 percent of world's energy today is coming from oil and gas," Wold said.

Wold's company philosophy is that fossil fuels "will fade out and eventually we'll have to go nuclear."

In the meantime, Gas Tech is interested in "the development of underground coal gasification for generating electricity and for converting coal to liquids such as diesel fuel, gasoline and so forth."

What UCG could mean for Wyoming

"Coal gasification is simply combining the carbon of coal with oxygen," Wold said, with oxygen available from water or air. This currently is done above ground after mining.

In UCG, coal is burned in "a cigar shaped cavity" about 1,000 feet underground, Wold said.

Gas production is greater with deep coal in part due to increased pressures. The Powder River Basin's coal bedding has excellent choices for depth and quality of coal, according to Wold. It also consists of up to 30 percent water, so if surface water is needed it will be minimal.

"We have a fantastic quantity and quality of information of underground coals," Wold said, because of the thousands of wells drilled for coal bed methane and the oil and gas wells in the Powder River Basin.

Major electric power companies could use the energy to generate electricity on a large scale.

"This may be the move that dramatizes the great potential for harnessing those great coal deposits that we have," Wold said.

It would benefit the state, he said, and boost the economy.

"With commercial development, you're talking about some fairly sizable employment activities," Wold said, "equivalent to about what you'd have in refineries today."

That possibility is years away.

"These things move slow," Wold said, "particularly when you're talking about a billion to 2 billion to 3 billion-dollar investment."

Gas Tech is taking it a step at a time and for now plans to show what UCG can do.

"Once it's demonstrated by a prime mover, it could catch fire and you could see a whole bunch of them going in at once."

UCG and the environment

To use coal today, it must be mined, transported and burned and then the ash must be disposed of.

UGC eliminates the need to disturb the land surface, and ash can remain inside the cavities rather than transported.

Present methods tear up land, Wold said. While Mining land is reclaimed, eliminating the need is preferable and less expensive.

"The beautiful part is that there is no more surface disturbance than what you would have in oil and gas," he said.

The major problems in earlier UCG efforts were ground-water contamination and collapsing cavities.

According to Wold, that can be avoided with proper burning and deep enough cavities.

UCG technology may someday be used on coal three to five thousand feet deep, Wold said.

Linc Energy has been successful in eliminating these pitfalls of earlier experiments.

Its project in Chinchilla, Australia produced gas in quantities indicating commercial viability while meeting all government environmental specifications.

After a continuous run from 1999 to 2003, there was no sign of contamination of the closely-monitored groundwater or surface areas and no gas leakage. Subsidence also was not an issue.

Gasification itself combines carbon with hydrogen and oxygen to form methane, carbon monoxide and hydrogen...more


----------



## Rumpig

Story on GTL Jet fuel. LNC's losing the race to commercialisation.




GTL Jet Fuel approved for use in civil aviation
29/09/2009
Shell today welcomed the release by ASTM International of a new specification that fully and unconditionally approves the use of Gas-to-Liquids Kerosene blends for powering commercial aircraft. 

The new specification, ASTM D7566 “Aviation Turbine Fuel Containing Synthesized Hydrocarbons”, approves jet fuel containing up to 50% GTL Kerosene for use in civil aviation.

The blends will be known as GTL Jet Fuel.

GTL Kerosene is one of five GTL products that will be produced in commercial volumes by the Pearl GTL project, currently under construction by Qatar Petroleum and Shell. The project will produce around one million tonnes of GTL Kerosene per annum, enough to power a typical commercial airliner for half a billon kilometres (equivalent to carrying 250 passengers around the world 4,000 times) when used in a 50% blend to make GTL Jet Fuel.

Construction of Pearl GTL is planned to be complete around the end of 2010 with project ramp-up then taking about 12 months. GTL Kerosene is planned to be available from 2012. 

The publication of the specification follows two years’ research and discussion by the ASTM specification group, a consensus body consisting of producers, equipment manufacturers and consumers of aviation fuel.

Shell is also working as part of a consortium with Airbus, Qatar Airways, Qatar Fuel Company (WOQOD), Qatar Petroleum, Qatar Science & Technology Park and Rolls-Royce to research the potential benefits of using GTL Jet Fuel in aviation engines. GTL Jet Fuel has lower emissions of particulates and other pollutants that affect local air quality. GTL Jet Fuel also has a slightly higher energy density per kilogram than oil-derived kerosene, meaning that a lower weight of fuel may be required for each kilometre flown. The consortium is working to quantify this potential fuel saving amongst other work.

Andy Brown, Shell’s Executive Vice President Qatar and Managing Director of the Pearl GTL project said: “I believe GTL Jet Fuel’s qualities, including its potential to reduce pollution around airports and allow airplanes to carry a slightly lighter fuel payload, will make it attractive to airlines and airport authorities. For Qatar, GTL provides the opportunity to market its natural gas in diverse markets currently supplied by oil products. Today’s approval opens up commercial aviation as another of these markets, helping to maximise the value Qatar can generate from its natural resources.”

Pearl GTL will convert natural gas into liquid fuels, lubricants and chemical feedstocks. In addition to GTL Kerosene, Pearl GTL will produce: GTL Gasoil, a diesel type fuel; GTL Base Oils, which are used to manufacture high quality lubricants; GTL Normal Paraffin, which is used in the production of detergents; and GTL Naphtha, a feedstock for plastics products


----------



## Santoro

For anyone who gives a f.....Peter Bond is on The Secret Millionaire tonight....don't expect an interview this is a TV show.....


----------



## Smurf1976

Rumpig said:


> Story on GTL Jet fuel. LNC's losing the race to commercialisation.



Shell commercialising gas to liquids is a rather different situation from what Linc is hoping to do with coal to liquids.


----------



## frankblack

Since no-one is posting about Peabody i will, seems they want lincs coal,
oh, yeah, the Chinese want it too.

http://tinyurl.com/yfcb5cx

But then, we have seen it all before


----------



## Nero64

> For anyone who gives a f.....Peter Bond is on The Secret Millionaire tonight....don't expect an interview this is a TV show.....




I saw some adds last night before going to bed. Was that the guy who looked like a Billie Connolley wannabe or a cashed up neo hippie. I think they call him a coal mining millionaire or something similar.


----------



## basilio

Just noted that LINC has appointed a new Chief Financial Officer.  Previous incumbent started in May 2009 and has not lasted beyond the probationary period.

Any knowledge or thoughts on the  rapid turnover of such top executives?


----------



## lukeaye

Not complaining, because i hold, but does anyone know why this stock has gone up so much today?

nearly 8% at time of writing, i can't find any news


----------



## SUNYA2006

lukeaye said:


> Not complaining, because i hold, but does anyone know why this stock has gone up so much today?
> 
> nearly 8% at time of writing, i can't find any news




Maybe good news about coal asset news will be released. According to interview of PB 5 weeks ago ,deadline of this news has been passed.


----------



## Mickel

S/P closed up 14.5c to $1.76 today.

There is an announcement but it is only the notice of AGM with
the various agenda items and explanations.

Nothing that is market sensitive.


Waiting... waiting...


----------



## Jonathan111

SUNYA2006 said:


> In comparison with New Saraji coal assets (700m tons) bought by  BHP in  2.45B last year, total three coal resource of LNC is more enormous (emerald:852m,Galilee:5.0-5.5b ,Pentland:266m). So do you think what the reasonable price of three assets are? Maybe $5b is a option.





I think the sale of Pentland and Emerald will be around: (taking into account the price of coal did spike last year,when 1.5b was offfered and the price of coal has now settled, but is expected to rise next year) 

conservative estimates

Pentland  $0.80  per tonne   x 266m tonnes  = 212 million
Emerald   $1.175 per tonne   x 852m tonnes  = 1.00 billion
___________________________________ 1.212 b

Galilee     $0.38  per tonne   x 1.75b tonnes  = 665 million

Galilee will increase with time (further drillling and railway developments and port)

Galilee Basin coal could be sent to Abbot Point coal terminal which is being expanded from 25 mtpa to 50 mtpa or the proposed new port at Dudgeon Point just south of Mackay which could facilitate 120 mtpa. Link provided.

http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2009/09/19/dudgeon-point-plans-giant-coal-port-120m-tonnes/#


However if the felix price is anything to go off then the above figures are conservative??

Take a look at the independent valuation for Felix's coal assets for a for a rough comparison.

Felix has 80% of Moolarben which is an open cut/underground thermal coal development in the Hunter Valley. The combined resource is 700 million tonnes. The independent valuation for Moolarben is $1.7 billion. 

$1.7 billion for 700 million tonnes of thermal coal.

Teresa is a thermal/coke coal deposit which as of 28 November 2008 had an inferred 852 million tonnes.

It must be said that Moolarbens resource is mostly in the measured/indicated category and is obviously much further advanced than Teresa but Teresa has the added benefit of approx 200 million tonnes of coking coal.

Much of the open cut resource at Teresa should now be in the measured category but ever since the coal sale process began the market hasn't been informed of further results from drilling.

Linc also have Pentland for sale. Pentland has 266 million tonnes of thermal coal with 176 million tonnes being in the indicated category with 90 million tonnes inferred.

Galilee is also for sale which is targeting approx 2 billion tonnes of open cut thermal coal. 

So the valuation of Felix's producing and non producing coal assets are interesting and could be used as a rough guide to the potential realised value of Linc's coal assets. As usual there are many variables that will be factored into any valuation and perceived paralels may be misleading.

Aside from Moolarben there aren't too many growth assets that Yanzhou have in OZ that they could add value to, then wrap up in a new vehicle and be flogged off to the public. 

I do think that Teresa could add value and replace/compliment Minerva and Athena which are also near Emerald and Lincs Teresa deposit. It's a bit hard to say whether or not they would be interested in Galilee and Pentland.

Peabody has been brought to all of our attention and they could find Galilee and Pentland worth looking at. Currently Peabody produces coking coal in Queensland and exports it out of Mackay. They have no exposure to thermal coal in Queensland but they do have a modest exposure to thermal coal from their mines in NSW with much of it being used in local power stations. With Galilee coal very likely to be exported out of Mackay it could be a good fit.

Peabody don't have any large scale projects in OZ. Galilee would give them this and Pentland is complimentary to it. Teresa is a potentially large scale project that they may be interested in also but Yanzhou could be more interested and trump them. See the link to Peabody,

http://www.peabodyenergy.com.au/sitesgeneral/australian-operations.html


----------



## laperouselad

Mickel said:


> Waiting... waiting...




I understand Mr Bond is in USA for next 4-6 weeks.   I doubt they will announce a coal sale until he returns.....


----------



## Nero64

> I understand Mr Bond is in USA for next 4-6 weeks. I doubt they will announce a coal sale until he returns




Maybe he has gone to St Louis to talk to the Peabody Energy Management team about selling some coal mines.


----------



## SUNYA2006

Nero64 said:


> Maybe he has gone to St Louis to talk to the Peabody Energy Management team about selling some coal mines.




I doubt the credit of PB because such things had happened for several times in a year. Does he has real intent to sell coal asset to add company value or it is only a lies? Look at the recent stock price I think most of investors are becoming not to believe what he has said.


----------



## Jonathan111

laperouselad said:


> I understand Mr Bond is in USA for next 4-6 weeks.   I doubt they will announce a coal sale until he returns.....




How do you know he is the USA?


RIO just sold 398 million tonnes Maules Creek of open cut thermal coal for 480million..

Felix  700 million tonnes open cut/underground thermal coal valued at 1.7billion..


----------



## basilio

Have to say the final price of 1.40.5 is unnerving for LNC. Also the fact that 650,000 shares were dumped either on close or after close which drove the price down the last 3 cents after  a pretty dismal day and week.

Any thoughts out there on why


----------



## Jonathan111

coal stocks world wide have taken a breather and so have most markets..
disappointment with the time line of expectations..
stops being hit driving price down further..
shortselling..


----------



## TheAbyss

basilio said:


> Have to say the final price of 1.40.5 is unnerving for LNC. Also the fact that 650,000 shares were dumped either on close or after close which drove the price down the last 3 cents after  a pretty dismal day and week.
> 
> Any thoughts out there on why




I am thinking they are ruing their decision to sell now.

Up 11% so far today on the back of a pretty decent resource find in South Australia. Have to say i am more appreciative of this sort of positive news than news of asset sell offs which are one off only.

This could be a company maker imo. BRR interview is compelling. 20,000 barrels of product a day for 80-90 years is what they have so far (with a lot more drilling etc to take place). Listen to Peter Bond and even if you can attribute half of what he has to say as feasible then they are off.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/62401/partner/theaustralian

*Update on South Australian UCG Program*

• Linc Energy discovers a significant 1.0 to 1.3 billion tonne Coal exploration target1 in accordance with the JORC Code at Orroroo

• UCG to GTL commercial location now confirmed at Orroroo, near Port Augusta in South Australia

The coal deposit is at an ideal depth for Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and initial analysis confirms that the coal properties and the geology of the overlying strata are all *well suited to host a world-scale UCG project*. Linc Energy believes that this is the best UCG location and coal deposit that it has drilled or examined to date. 

The significant size of the deposit, the seam thickness, the flat topography and the other attributes described above can ensure that the Orroroo location in South Australia will become the western world’s first commercial UCG facility and the focus of Linc Energy’s commercialisation of UCG to GTL
(Gas to Liquids) over the coming months and years.


----------



## basilio

Well it was great getting that Linc report out today. Certainly put a bit of support under the share price as well as reminding us just why we are here in the first place.

Am I being too cynical to ask just why the report popped out this morning? Yes it's all good but does it seem like a quick way to support a flagging share price? 

I'm sure we are all aware that any new 20,000 bpd plant is going to cost around $1 bill to construct. And that we have now been waiting over 12 months for the successful conclusion of a coal sale that will finance this project. (If it doesn't come through just what is Plan B ?).

And that the last 5 week timetable is being uncomfortably stretched. (On the 18th September Peter Bond said up to 5 weeks before a resolution...) 

Anyway the coal is always in the ground and hopefully is always worth a big figure..


----------



## basilio

Listened to the BRR interview with Peter Bond and it certainly was compelling. Anyone have a crystal ball that can tell us when the taps will be turned on ?

I have to say if I was a State Government like South Australia with some pretty shaky economic circumstances (collapsing car industries, real water problems) the Peter Bond picture would look really good. Perhaps they are the plan B ?


----------



## springhill

TheAbyss said:


> The significant size of the deposit, the seam thickness, the flat topography and the other attributes described above can ensure that *the Orroroo location in South Australia will become the western world’s first commercial UCG facility *and the focus of Linc Energy’s commercialisation of UCG to GTL
> (Gas to Liquids) over the coming months and years.




Correct me if i'm wrong here, but they've only just defined the resource..... i'm sure CNX would have something to say about this


----------



## Mickel

laperouselad said:


> I understand Mr Bond is in USA for next 4-6 weeks.   I doubt they will announce a coal sale until he returns.....




I doubt that PB will be in the USA for 4-6 weeks as the AGM (in Brisbane) is on Thursday 26 November (IE LESS THAN 3 WEEKS). It would be most unusual for him not to be present, particularily if the coal tenements have not been sold.
Hopefully, they will be or, perhaps, the announcement of the sale will be made at the meeting.

The AGM starts at 3.00pm Qld time which, at 4.00pm EDST, is after the ASX market has closed for the day.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The chart for LNC is trading in quite a nice little range and there has been higher than normal trading over the last few months.

I enclose a weekly chart with harmonic simple moving averages 5,15,30, beloved of Dawn Bolton Smith, one of Australia's foremost chartists.

gg


----------



## Mickel

TheAbyss said:


> *Update on South Australian UCG Program*
> 
> • Linc Energy discovers a significant 1.0 to 1.3 billion tonne Coal exploration target1 in accordance with the JORC Code at Orroroo
> 
> • UCG to GTL commercial location now confirmed at Orroroo, near Port Augusta in South Australia
> 
> The coal deposit is at an ideal depth for Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and initial analysis confirms that the coal properties and the geology of the overlying strata are all *well suited to host a world-scale UCG project*. Linc Energy believes that this is the best UCG location and coal deposit that it has drilled or examined to date.
> 
> The significant size of the deposit, the seam thickness, the flat topography and the other attributes described above can ensure that the Orroroo location in South Australia will become the western world’s first commercial UCG facility and the focus of Linc Energy’s commercialisation of UCG to GTL
> (Gas to Liquids) over the coming months and years.




While this is promising, don't forget that it is only a target at present and any commercial production (of syngas) will be after 2010 in my opinion as -
1. JORC statement of coal resource (by early 2nd qtr of 2010).
2. Obtain any necessary approvals.
3. Selection of initial coal seams to drill and cap.
4. Test firing (burning) of coal seam and measurement of syngas volume.
5. Testing of the energy value of the syngas.

Then, it appears (from the announcement) that there will be a commercial power generation unit built on the site. From the CNX profile, a minimum 5MW generator would take at least 3 months to complete. The subsequent GTL plant would take at least 12 months to complete and depend on having the funds available.

I doubt that there will be any commercial production (of power) before July 2011. Meanwhile, Carbon Energy appears to be on target to produce power next month at Bloodwood Creek. I think Carbon Energy may claim at their AGM on 20 Nov (6 days before Linc) that they will be the first UCG producer in the western world within days.


----------



## springhill

Mickel said:


> While this is promising, don't forget that it is only a target at present and any commercial production (of syngas) will be after 2010 in my opinion as -
> 1. JORC statement of coal resource (by early 2nd qtr of 2010).
> 2. Obtain any necessary approvals.
> 3. Selection of initial coal seams to drill and cap.
> 4. Test firing (burning) of coal seam and measurement of syngas volume.
> 5. Testing of the energy value of the syngas.
> 
> Then, it appears (from the announcement) that there will be a commercial power generation unit built on the site. From the CNX profile, a minimum 5MW generator would take at least 3 months to complete. The subsequent GTL plant would take at least 12 months to complete and depend on having the funds available.
> 
> I doubt that there will be any commercial production (of power) before July 2011. Meanwhile, Carbon Energy appears to be on target to produce power next month at Bloodwood Creek. I think Carbon Energy may claim at their AGM on 20 Nov (6 days before Linc) that they will be the first UCG producer in the western world within days.




That is excellent analysis mate, that was quite a ludicrous statement to make, even CXY's Kingaroy project (with pre-production commissioning due to initiate in Q4 of this year) is well ahead of LNC's Orroroo..... you still a medal for 3rd at the Olympics


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post (1051) on 7/11, Peter Bond has outlined a timeline for building power generation and GTL plants at Orroroo SA, in an interview with Dow Jones on 6 Nov (aust time). The report is on Linc's website-
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-341.pdf .

Here is an extract- 
"Chief Executive Peter Bond told Dow Jones Newswires that the company wants to start building the facility late next year, with construction of the first-stage of a power generator to be completed about 12 months after late 2010, and construction of the GTL facility about 20 months after late 2010.

Bond said Linc's recent A$54.7 million institutional share placement and subsequent share purchase plan, which only raised A$7.7 million instead of a planned A$20 million, have given the company enough cash to pursue its development plans for at least another year.

Still, he said talks with various parties over the sale of its non-core Queensland coal assets are continuing.

Bond also said that companies have approached Linc about becoming joint venture partners in its South Australian operations. "We've got possible joint venture partners who want to do gasification, gas-to-liquids and power
generation," he said. Bond said the company's cash reserves mean it doesn't have a pressing need to bring in a partner. "You don't want to take on a big name just for the sake of taking on a big name," Bond said. "They can
often have opposing interests and slow down your project's development." "

And another short extract- 
"The Orroroo deposit could also support 500 megawatts of power generation, Linc said. The company said it plans to drill another 30 wells at Orroroo and hopes to post a resource that is compliant with the Joint Ore Reserves Committee code in the second quarter of 2010."

*So my minimum timing for production of power at Orroroo was about 6 months earlier than is outlined here. However it is not clear from the report what size of power generation is proposed. Most likely it will be much larger than the 5MW that I quoted, but I doubt that it will be the full 500MW quoted above. More likely it would be a modular plant (perhaps 50MW modules) of 100MW to 200MW initially.*

Also, the proposed timing for the 20,000 bpd GTL plant is Aug 2012. This, no doubt, is dependant on having the $1 Billion + from the sale of the coal tenements available in the short term.


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> I doubt that there will be any commercial production (of power) before July 2011. Meanwhile, Carbon Energy appears to be on target to produce power next month at Bloodwood Creek. I think Carbon Energy may claim at their AGM on 20 Nov (6 days before Linc) that they will be the first UCG producer in the western world within days.




My previous view above regarding CNX being the first in Aust to commercialise UCG has been confirmed by Andrew Dash, CEO of CNX in an ASX statement today. Here is an extract-

"Power station construction on track

“In July we commenced the construction of our 5MW power plant, which we
aim to have up and operational prior to the end of December, with electricity
following into the local grid by January next year.

The power station, when commissioned, will be fuelled by gas produced from
our Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) panel constructed last year and
*it’s important to recognise that this will be the first power facility of its type in Australia."*


----------



## The Dealer

Mickel
Got to say who cares...
Most are not in Linc for power. It is the barrels of oil. The carbon technology (linc carbon solutions). The world geographic positioning (US, China, Vietnam, Russia). The acreage. The permits. Dare I say it, the sale of non core assets.
Stop running it down. Just sell your position and go all in to Cougar.


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> Mickel
> Got to say who cares...
> Most are not in Linc for power. It is the barrels of oil. The carbon technology (linc carbon solutions). The world geographic positioning (US, China, Vietnam, Russia). The acreage. The permits. Dare I say it, the sale of non core assets.
> Stop running it down. Just sell your position and go all in to Cougar.




I'm not trying to run LNC down and will be a long term holder of the stock.

I AM trying separate "the wheat from the chaff" in the interviews PB gives to the press.


----------



## qq830821

The Dealer said:


> Mickel
> Got to say who cares...
> Most are not in Linc for power. It is the barrels of oil. The carbon technology (linc carbon solutions). The world geographic positioning (US, China, Vietnam, Russia). The acreage. The permits. Dare I say it, the sale of non core assets.
> Stop running it down. Just sell your position and go all in to Cougar.




speaking of non core assets. by the most conservative valuation i have 

Emerald	852	0.54	460.08
Galilee	3000	0.2	600
Pentland	266	0.5	133
Total			1193.08
460m share on issue

share should worth 2.59 with three non core assets ONLY.....

somehow MR mkt donest agree with me and only value LNC @ 1.52....


----------



## luckypaul

I am a long term holder who just wants this sale to go through as soon as possible (PLEASE!). I am fed up with sitting in a stock that has missed the rally making me miss it too. You can have just so much faith you know??  Gotta get out soon before the markets go down and take Linc with it!! I am a very scared investor who got bit last Oct and doesn't want to get done again!


----------



## The Dealer

Did anyone catch the story in the Fin Review re Clean Coal dead. 
Started off bad for LNC and by end of story I was excited for them.
The oppositions ideas on clean coal and carbon capture all bodes well for Linc's wholly owned subsidiary Linc Carbon Solutions. My own research on this technology is that all of Lincs other projects will be dwarfed by this technology if it is taken up.You wont be able to put a price on it!! 
Does anyone else know anything about this technology and how far off it is from being commercial. 
My thought, the coal sale will be announced at the AGM on 26th.


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> Did anyone catch the story in the Fin Review re Clean Coal dead.
> Started off bad for LNC and by end of story I was excited for them.
> The oppositions ideas on clean coal and carbon capture all bodes well for Linc's wholly owned subsidiary Linc Carbon Solutions. My own research on this technology is that all of Lincs other projects will be dwarfed by this technology if it is taken up.You wont be able to put a price on it!!
> Does anyone else know anything about this technology and how far off it is from being commercial.
> My thought, the coal sale will be announced at the AGM on 26th.




I am unaware of any announcement by LNC on progress of Linc Carbon Solutions. Mind you, if they have a successful process, they'd want to keep it very quiet until they have it fully protected by patents etc because, as you say Dealer, it will be very valuable.

Here is a link to LNC's description of their aims for Linc Carbon Solutions -
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/fact-sheet/e4-fact.pdf

Of course, it will be less valuable if there is no ETS in Australia and no Copenhagen agreement.

I have previously speculated that there may be a coal sale announcement at the AGM. But, if it is a foreign sale, the timing (and approval) is largely in the hands of the Federal Treasurer.


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> The oppositions ideas on clean coal and carbon capture all bodes well for Linc's wholly owned subsidiary Linc Carbon Solutions.




My understanding is that Linc Carbon Solutions is a joint venture company.

This extract is from P Bond's report to the 2008 AGM- 

"*Linc Carbon Solutions*
Linc Energy entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and then a Joint Venture contract with BioCleanCoal with the aim of creating a Joint Venture company that can produce a solution to the processing of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) sources. The aim is to create a bioreactor which has the ability to absorb CO2 at one end, and to produce oxygen and biomass from the other.The project name for this unit is the ‘Green Box’. I am pleased to note that the ‘Green Box’ is making good progress and that the partnership with BioCleanCoal has been going extremely well.

Our Linc Energy Project Manager on the ‘Green Box’ is Mariano Minotti who is the longest serving employee at Linc Energy (other than myself) and is doing an outstanding job ensuring Linc Energy and its partner have the ability to produce this extraordinarily cost-effective and environmentally friendly diesel in the future with a very small CO2 footprint. In fact, we will aim to have one
of the smallest CO2 footprints in the world. The ‘Green Box’ will become an exciting business avenue for the Company. I am looking forward to the first ‘Green Box’ demonstration unit being operational at Chinchilla before the end of 2009."


----------



## TheAbyss

The Dealer said:


> Mickel
> Got to say who cares...
> Most are not in Linc for power. It is the barrels of oil. The carbon technology (linc carbon solutions). The world geographic positioning (US, China, Vietnam, Russia). The acreage. The permits. Dare I say it, the sale of non core assets.
> Stop running it down. Just sell your position and go all in to Cougar.




MOU out today with BP committing in principle to take 14000 barrels a day from the proposed SA facility. 

All coming together. Selling off what are now non core assets in Qld is gravy. The SA project is where the focus will now be.

*Linc Energy continues and expands its MOU with BP AUSTRALIA*

• Linc Energy is proud to continue with the Memorandum of Understanding with BP Australia to be Linc Energy’s First Major Customer for Ultra-Clean Diesel

• The MOU has been amended to incorporate a take or pay agreement for the proposed Gas to Liquids Facility in South Australia. Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce that it has extended its Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with BP Australia Pty Ltd. This MOU allows for BP Australia to be the first customer to purchase a minimum of 14,000 barrels per day of Ultra-Clean diesel to be produced at Linc Energy’s first production plant to be commissioned in South Australia.


----------



## Jonathan111

TheAbyss said:


> • The MOU has been amended .




only change is:

Take or Pay

Investopedia explains Take or Pay
This is used in some contracts as a method to ensure that the transaction occurs. For example, a Banana farmer will enter into a take or pay contract with a fruit retailer so that the retailer will buy all the bananas from the farmer or pay a provision for not buying them.


----------



## Mickel

A very positive ASX announcement regarding a JORC statement on the Galilee coal tenement. A total of 7.8 BILLION tonnes with 7.3 Inferred and .5 indicated.

Link - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091118/pdf/31m49d0b1br5qj.pdf


----------



## The Dealer

A small bit of news like today's makes the SP jump over 10%
What will happen to the SP with the announcement of it's sale??


----------



## Mickel

The Dealer said:


> A small bit of news like today's makes the SP jump over 10%
> What will happen to the SP with the announcement of it's sale??




With that tonnage, hopefully a price tag around $3 Billion minimum, which equates to $6 per share.

I still consider that Teresa is worth  $1 Billion and a minimum of $2 Billion for Galilee.The Pentland tenament could be worth $200 Million but at least one analyst has stated in the recent past that it could be sold on a royalty basis.

Waiting... waiting.


----------



## Mickel

Further to my previous post, I have an updated sale price based on Merriman Curhan Ford's analysis dated 17/7/09.

It is difficult to set up their matrix here, but here goes with my added data in bold.

US$ per ton---$0.18-- $0.36 --$0.54 -- $0.71 --$0.89--$1.07     

A$ per tonne--$0.25-- $0.50 --$0.75 --$1.00 --$1.25 --$1.50  -(17/07/09)

*A$ per ton  -$0.19 --$0.39 --$0.58 --$0.76 --$0.96- $1.15  -(18/11) * 

Emerald  ---------------------- ---  639 -------852 -----1065 ----1278 --(852MT)

 --------------------------- ---------*  494 ----- 647----- 818 ----980 -(852MT)*

Galilee*------- 438---- 875----1313------1750   --------- --------        (1.75BT)

*--- ----------1482---3040---4524-----5928 ---------- ----     (7.8BT)*

Pentland -------------- 133-----200-------266   ------------ (266MT)

 -------------- ---*---- 103 -----154---- 202---------  (266MT)*

Here is their link- http://www.mcfco.com/extend_Research_ResearchEngine/Public Reports/LNCGY/LNCGY (07-17-09).pdf

For various reasons outlined in their report (their value of the 3 tenements had a range of A$1.2 B to A$3.3B) I consider the following to be fair value CURRENTLY-

Teresa     A$ 980M
Galilee     A$3040M
Pentland  A$ 154M

TOTAL    A$4174M

This equates to approx $8 per share


----------



## The Dealer

Now you know why we all hold (and hold and hold).. Shhh Don't tell too many people about it.. It will happen.


----------



## mexican

Linc's tenement looking a little more attractive 


http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...asttrack-1b-palmer-project-20091118-im8v.html


----------



## Nero64

> A small bit of news like today's makes the SP jump over 10%
> What will happen to the SP with the announcement of it's sale??




Yeah but there is always the possiblity that the sale is factored into the price and the price will fall after the news. Hopefully it will be impressive news and it will carry the sp $1-2 higher in time. 

There seems to be alot of short term traders on this one. Today The price opened at 1.78 and too much supply hit the market making it fall back 10c or so. Unfortunately i'm right in the noise and face the possibility of selling for a short gain and buying cheaper. But i'm just not sure


----------



## The Dealer

mexican said:


> Linc's tenement looking a little more attractive
> 
> 
> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...asttrack-1b-palmer-project-20091118-im8v.html




Mexican can you please refresh me on who is doing the power plant??

So much for the government being opposed to dirty coal projects. I guess if they think they are exporting the problem overseas it's not our problem?

If there is some sort of deal announced, surely the stock would have to be re rated straight away.  I know I wouldn't be selling for less than $5. I'm sure PB wont be selling at all. There is no sale price factored in on this one I'm sure. The institutions did that at $5++ last year and got burnt. Those who hold now are waiting for the dollars to be in the bank.

Also was reading a Martin Place Securities analyst report on CTP. LNC gets a couple of mentions about possible joint ventures on GTL. That would be lovely.
Don't know if you can paste those sorts of things on here, but you can go to the CTP site and get it off there.


----------



## mexican

I have not heard anything on that subject Dealer.

I know LBY have a tenement next to Waratah and Linc, don't know if they have any plan's with CNX in that area.


----------



## The Dealer

mexican said:


> I have not heard anything on that subject Dealer.
> 
> I know LBY have a tenement next to Waratah and Linc, don't know if they have any plan's with CNX in that area.




Sorry made a mistake, it wasn't on the CTP home, it was on Oil Barrel (free to join)

http://www.oilbarrel.com/companies/details0/company/central-petroleum-ltd.html

If you go here and sign up, click on Central Petroleum it takes you to a site that has MPS analyst report. I read it all and it mentions LNC a couple of times, but nearer the end it talks JV with them.

Check it and let us know what you think.


----------



## luckypaul

Hi there,

I am attaching the Merriman Curhan Ford Analyst report for 19 Nov 2009 received from Linc today via Lincs "E-Mail Updates". This is the US Analyst which tracks LNCGY over in the US. Overall a positive 'Buy' recommendation with some interesting valuations. However this analyst says:- 

"*We believe management will wait to monetize Galilee until the resource has been drilled further in order to realize maximum value. While we do not expect a sale before mid-2010, Linc expects to report a measured open cut resource in excess of 1B tonnes in the near future, and we anticipate this announcement will be another positive catalyst for the stock."*

which is not good news either for us investors or for Linc's short term cash flow...should you choose to believe them, that is. 

It does seem strange that Linc had supposedly completed a bidding process (see http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-184.pdf), then were doing due dilligence (Peter Bonds "5 weeks" to go) and then...nothing until the resource that was being bid on was updated: http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-193.pdf

This doesn't make any sense to me unless:-
a) there are no bids/only bids that have failed on the table and Mr Bond has cried "wolf" for the 4th time in a year, 
b) There is a bid and an interested party but the total value is dependant on final declared resources (due in 10 weeks of frantic drilling from last week) - what a nice patient and rich bidder that must be , 
c) I have gone mad and do not know what I am talking about  

I hope it is b) cos Linc's SP need a desperate kick in the butt with daily high volume trades but little movement. Any other theories out there that tie all the clues together or should we send a beautiful blonde to get the info from Mr Bond??

Note: I am a long term but frustrated holder


----------



## qq830821

I think there will be a two stage sell. I.e. sell P and E first and then sell G when the value is fully realised. I still believe they can sell P and G for 1b. Also in this report, why do they value G based on the open cut tonnage only? I think the underground coal should attract some value as well


----------



## luckypaul

If anyone is attending the AGM tomorrow (26/11/2009), please ask what is happening with the coal sale? 

That is if an announcement is not made, which I guess is a possibility. They cannot get through a public meeting without this being bought up! Lets hope there is some positive news.


----------



## buttonzhu

uptrend said:


> anyone in here are watching LNC? nice bounce today before close, possibly due to news releasing soon? 60C seems to be a very good support, does anyone know when are the next announcements due?





Yes, it is. The volume is high as well (1,379,925 ), but in a short term, it is not suggest to buy a lot because technically this dog is running a bit over. Energy sector stocks are
always interesting to watch.

P.S. ASX finish in the end which proves my model is working.


----------



## The Dealer

All too quiet!
Is this the clam before the storm?
Low volumes. Small pull back. Will we see a Christmas Rally?


----------



## Jonathan111

The Dealer said:


> Is this the clam ...?










Yes LNC is a clam... not yet a pearl oyster.


----------



## basilio

I'm feeling really disappointed about Linc at the moment. The excitement about funding the project through sales of the thermal coal have been running since Sept 2008. The assurances and reassurances  that the sale is around the corner keep on coming. At the moment the stock looks like a plaything for day traders rather than a well considered long term industrial giant.

Perhaps investors do need to see a bigger picture view that outlines how Linc will achieve it's goals over the next 2-5 years. (Or have I missed it ?)


----------



## The Dealer

Basilio
I was just talking to a friend re linc and their possible strategy.
If I had technology that can do what Linc says it can. I would be a fool to tell the world until I have secured all the cheap coal I can before I go commercial. 
Reason, if I had a coal deposit worth nothing as it is trapped or in a desert, then someone came and said to me, I can turn it into a trillion barrels of oil and I want to buy it. My price on that trapped coal just went up double. 
So I think that PB must be securing coal and gas tenements’ round the globe and then, like he said in the newsletter the asset sale is still there in the ground, it hasn't blown away or been lost. I think once all those matters have been secured a sale and commercialisation project will be under way.
My other observation is that the volume is very light, could put it down to Christmas trade or like me, not selling as announcement imminent.


----------



## Jonathan111

The Dealer said:


> Basilio
> I would be a fool to tell the world until I have secured all the cheap coal I can before I go commercial.





LINC ENERGY have aquired more acerage in the US, a small dilution to pay for a possible huge gain, once UCG or GTL starts to operate commercially.

"Linc Energy now holds more State coal leases than any other company, with a coal acreage footprint of 173,327 acres. This puts Linc Energy into a very strong position to undertake commercial UCG operations in Wyoming and move quickly to the construction of a commercial Gas to Liquids facility in the USA."

"As such, this coal acreage provides the Company with a number of opportunities to exploit both the deep coals by UCG and *shallower coals by traditional extraction methods with an appropriate partner."*


----------



## ectoplasm

Price action paused at resistance - with increased volume & indicators not too shabbie. Breakout today with volume

Daily chart: Breakout today with increased volume


----------



## Jonathan111

ectoplasm said:


> Price action paused at resistance - with increased volume & indicators not too shabbie. Breakout today with volume
> 
> 
> Daily chart: Breakout today with increased volume




Closed at 1.735 today good spotting!  

Yanzhou looking for more coal

http://www.smh.com.au/business/yanzhou-sets-sights-on-more-acquisitions-20100106-ludw.html

http://i289.photobucket.com/albums/ll213/kenbol/lnc.gif  robbbbbbb HC

"In its first purchase, LNC paid A$6.2m for GasTech coal leases with non-jorc exploration targets of 7-8bt. That isnt even one tenth of one cent per ton." Bleasby HC

AFC energy bolted up over 40%
Also good moves by OEL and BPT looking good.


----------



## ectoplasm

Jonathan111 said:


> Closed at 1.735 today good spotting!
> 
> 
> "In its first purchase, LNC paid A$6.2m for GasTech coal leases with non-jorc exploration targets of 7-8bt. That isnt even one tenth of one cent per ton." Bleasby HC
> 
> Yanzhou looking for more coal
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/yanzh...0106-ludw.html
> 
> http://i289.photobucket.com/albums/ll213/kenbol/lnc.gif robbbbbbb HC
> 
> 
> 
> AFC energy bolted up over 40%
> Also good moves by OEL and BPT looking good.




After some consolidation music LNC is stepping higher. I agree with Rob's initial target of $2.00, lets see what the year brings for higher ...


----------



## roland

Nice turn around for Linc Energy just now. Must be a news release imminant. Now up 4.5% after being doiwn a similar amount


----------



## Jonathan111

Flood threat passes for central Qld: 
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/flood-threat-passes-for-central-qld-20100131-n5wm.html





_"Galilee is having the back drilled out of it right now with ECU, Blue Energy, Westside, Comet Rigde and Linc all with rigs up there at the moment; and I am sure there are a few others as well."_ (SF, HC, 31/01/2010)





http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR221.loop.shtml#skip

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR561.loop.shtml#skip

IPOs...
Is Palmer the likely bidder? Yanzhou? I bloomin well hope so! & that it happens soon and unexpectedly!

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/Article/Palmer-float-postponed/509848.aspx


----------



## basilio

That was a real shakeout today. I think it's time for Linc to close a deal, get the cash and start producing and selling diesel as fast as it can. Sitting around with a huge resource base worth potentially billions will not cut any ice if/when cash dries up.

Lets go...


----------



## The Dealer

I can offer a reason for the huge volume jump today.
If you are a subscriber to Aussie small caps they trail stop on it for $1.40. So i put in a buy order for $1.40 hoping that all the fools who put in a sell at $1.40 would all be hit and today was the day. I would expect more to panic and sell more toorrow for less.


----------



## basilio

I went to one of the Limelight series of presentations this evening in Melbourne. This is essentially a series of show and sells Linc is doing around the country as part of its promotion and selling itself to the share analysts who make decisions about which companies their clients should invest in.

They had a number of top executives presenting. Kobus Terblanche, General Manager for the Gas to Liquid plant discussed the technical issues of successfully developing the UCG and  GTL  aspects  of the project. Matthew Buchanan as Manager for Environmental Affairs was enthusiastic about the low environmental impact the project would have compared to above ground developments. Anton Rohner as Chief Financial officer offered an overview of  how Linc would be keeping all the balls in the air in it's development of  commercial plant in South Australia.

What did I take away from the night? In no particular order...

1)* Everyone is (obviously...) waiting for the sale and cash settlements for the Galilee tenements*. It feels as if Linc is being strung out in the negotiations and that Peter Bond is determined to get what he believes is a fair price for the tenements.

2) *There are a number of Plan B,C,D's ect being developed to bring in the cash *that will be required to fund ongoing operations if  Galilee is still waiting in the church in six months time. There can be no if's or buts about these plans. No cash, no company.

3) *There is a new emphasis on the initial development of the UCG processs in South Australia and then establishing a large power station to feed electricity into the grid.* This seems to make good sense because
    a) it is considerably cheaper than the full GTL plant,
    b) The technology is well proven and offers less risk of engineering  problems
    c) Selling electricity quickly into the grid would be an instant money earner and probably more likely to attract an appropriate partner
    d) The greenhouse gas savings possible with the UCG process and gas fired generator (versus coal ) would  make this an attractive proposition to governments and  power companies.

4)*  There is certainly a ramping up of staff in Linc to develop the SA project and everything else*. Of course this all costs money which focuses everyone even more keenly on just how good are Plans A-D in keeping the company solvent.
*
5)  The technical processes involved in establishing best practice in UCG at Chinchilla are improving all the time*. Gas Generator 4 has just gone on line with a host of improvements. I don't think anyone should underestimate that getting the engineering side well and truly sorted out is not a given and if things aren't well done  there will be some nasty surprises.

6) * It seems that the GTL plant is a good 4 years away.* So don't hold your breath wanting to fill your diesel powered cars out of the Linc bowser.

The evening was recorded so I imagine there will some sort of presentation coming out of the Linc website in due course. (hint,hint..)  

One thing I found interesting was a complete lack of any financial analysis of just how profitable Linc could be. Here we were with a room largely full of analysts and the focus was on why this was such ground breaking technology, and how good Linc was at making it all work. When the question was asked afterwards Anton said they were waiting for final figures on the costs of establishing plants before restating any financial projections. 

Overall it was a very interesting  and enjoyable evening. Great feed and drinks for those who care for that sort of thing... (which included me..) A good opportunity to talk with senior management who were certainly interested in being available to all who attended.

I hope that the main intention of the evening - selling Linc to the investment community - was successful.  I'm sure as time goes on and management reflect and refine on the message they want to get across, the investment community will recognise the potential value that Linc offers and act accordingly.

There are a further 12 Limelight presentations around the country this year. Well worth a squiz. I have attached the link to the website detailing where and when.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/eventscalendar.php


----------



## skc

The Dealer said:


> I can offer a reason for the huge volume jump today.
> If you are a subscriber to Aussie small caps they trail stop on it for $1.40. So i put in a buy order for $1.40 hoping that all the fools who put in a sell at $1.40 would all be hit and today was the day. I would expect more to panic and sell more toorrow for less.




Not sure that's the right way to play mate. You should estimate the number of subscribers, estimate their average position, and check out the market depth in volume terms where the price will be if all subscribers were to have their stops triggered.

No matter what answer you come up with from above, your buy order should be a fair way below $1.40 imo.


----------



## calais

Great post Basilio,

Just wondering what's plan B,C and D. Did they mention or hint how Linc would go about raising capital for the South Australian projects?

I believe that is their main concern at the moment.

Might fly over to Sth Aust from Melb for their next presentation 24th feb.


----------



## Smurf1976

basilio said:


> 3) *There is a new emphasis on the initial development of the UCG processs in South Australia and then establishing a large power station to feed electricity into the grid.*



*
Where are they planning to put the power station relative to their coal resource / UCG production?

Pipeline the gas to Adelaide and build the power station there?

Or build the power station on site and transmit the electricity?

There are significant cost and other issues associated with the two options, including that the former opens up the possiblity of a greater market for their UCG gas - selling it to manufacturing industry, established power stations (of which there are serveral in the Adelaide city area) etc. For a company short on cash this would seem an option worthy of serious consideration.*


----------



## Riddick

skc said:


> Not sure that's the right way to play mate. You should estimate the number of subscribers, estimate their average position, and check out the market depth in volume terms where the price will be if all subscribers were to have their stops triggered.
> 
> No matter what answer you come up with from above, your buy order should be a fair way below $1.40 imo.




Totally agree. Setting your buy price so close to the stop sees you setting yourself up to pay above market rate in the event of gapping, and you are really trying to buy against the trend. Unless you have the cashola to absord every unit that comes on sale at $1.40 and avoid oversupply this strategy, IMHO seems frought with danger. Few folk make good $$$ buying against the trend. good luck though dude, considering your 1.40 is now above the current market price.


----------



## basilio

> Quote:
> Originally Posted by basilio View Post
> 3) *There is a new emphasis on the initial development of the UCG processs in South Australia and then establishing a large power station to feed electricity into the grid.
> 
> Where are they planning to put the power station relative to their coal resource / UCG production?*



*

The UCG site is at Orroroo in SA about 90 klms SE of Port Augusta. It seems to be close enough to Adelaide and has good access to port and power transmission infrastructure. (this all comes from the December  newsletter) . Apparently drilling to date has confirmed 1-1.3 Bill tonnes of coal. This appears  sufficient to keep a 500 meg UCG power generation project PLUS a 20,000 bpd GTL plant going for 75 years. 

It appears all the facilities will be sited at the drill site.*


----------



## Smurf1976

basilio said:


> The UCG site is at Orroroo in SA about 90 klms SE of Port Augusta. It seems to be close enough to Adelaide and has good access to port and power transmission infrastructure. (this all comes from the December  newsletter) . Apparently drilling to date has confirmed 1-1.3 Bill tonnes of coal. This appears  sufficient to keep a 500 meg UCG power generation project PLUS a 20,000 bpd GTL plant going for 75 years.
> 
> It appears all the facilities will be sited at the drill site.



Seems like a reasonable location for a power station. 

There are two existing power stations at Port Augusta with existing transmission lines to Adelaide as follows. These are conventional coal-fired plants using coal from Leigh Creek mine which has limited remaining reserves.

Northern - 542MW nominal capacity (originally built as 500MW then uprated) from two units generally operating at full capacity with a modest reduction in output overnight. It commenced operation in 1985 and could still be considered quite modern and efficient in design and operation.

Playford B - 240MW nominal capacity from 4 units but it generally runs at half that or less due to the age and low technical efficiency of the plant. The plant was historically run much harder prior to construction of Northern and the transmission link to Victoria. It commenced operation in 1960 and has recently been subject to works to prolong its life.

Most notable features of the SA electricity industry are (1) relatively high use of wind energy (2) historic and present high reliance on gas (3) high proportion of total generation from plants located in the Adelaide metro area (4) exceptionally high daily variation in demand driven by air-conditioning load (5) marginal operating costs of established generating plant in SA are generally higher than that in Qld, NSW, or Vic due to the fuels used and the remote location of those fuel sources relative to Adelaide and practical power station locations.


----------



## yma

I have been following this stock for a while, it is really based on the news, couple month ago they release the JORC code with good result and the price went up, they do have more confirm resources however without selling it, it won't have any help to the company, what i believe is until the coal sale confirm, the price will just go up and down with news regardless of what technology they have.


----------



## Jonathan111

yma said:


> I have been following this stock for a while, it is really based on the news, couple month ago they release the JORC code with good result and the price went up, they do have more confirm resources however without selling it, it won't have any help to the company, what i believe is until the coal sale confirm, the price will just go up and down with news regardless of what technology they have.






http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/06/2812195.htm?section=australia


http://www.cabinet.qld.gov.au/MMS/StatementDisplaySingle.aspx?id=68399

*
Palmer, Bligh in $69b China coal deal*

Queensland billionaire Clive Palmer has signed a deal to sell millions of tonnes of coal to China in what's believed to be Australia's largest export contract.

Mr Palmer says the $69 billion, 20-year offtake deal was signed last Friday with China Power International.

Another $8.6 billion agreement was signed with the Metallurgical Corporation of China to build the project in central Queensland.

Mr Palmer's Resourcehouse wants to develop a 40 million-tonne-a-year thermal coal mine in the Galilee Basin, near Alpha, west of Emerald.

"That's the biggest coal mine in the world in one go I think you'll find," Mr Palmer said.

"This is really a great time for the state.

"You know, things have been a bit quiet lately and it's good to see that we can revitalise the economy."

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh says the project will boost the state's economy.

"What the signing of this contract with the Chinese company means is that Australia's largest single export deal ever signed will be happening right here in Queensland," Ms Bligh said.

Four underground mines and two open cut mines will be developed, as well as a new coal port at Abbot Point, near Bowen.

A new 500 kilometre rail line will be built to link the mine and the terminal.


Jobs target

Mr Palmer says the project will create jobs.

"It'll create 7,000 jobs, I believe during construction and operations, and they'll be direct jobs," he said.

Ms Bligh says it helps reach her election promise to create 100,000 new jobs.

"We've already seen 30,000 jobs created in the last couple of months." she said.

"We still have some 98,000 jobs to go to reach that target, because for some time last year we went backwards."


Differences aside

Mr Palmer is suing the Queensland Premier over comments she made about his links to the Liberal National Party.

He is a large financial backer of the party but he says they have put their differences aside for the project.

"You've got to understand the Premier is a very compassionate, caring person who cares about the future of Queenslanders and about jobs," he said.

But he is still suing Ms Bligh.

"Life's got to be interesting hasn't it," he said.

Ms Bligh says the defamation suit will be solved by lawyers.

"But neither Mr Palmer or I are going to let any of those issues get in the way of jobs for Queenslanders," she said.

The State Government could reap up to $500 million a year in royalties, dependent on the price of coal. 

"That is a huge boost and a massive shot in the arm for the Queensland economy and it's great news for central Queensland and regional Queensland," Ms Bligh said.

The mine is expected to be fully operational by 2014.


----------



## The Dealer

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apRfDMJCCsyU&pos=4

The deal got amention on Bloomberg as well. Too bad they didn't name Linc to add some spice.


----------



## Coal Face

*Fuel Cell Power Station*

The Power Station is likely to be built with AFC Energy fuel cells, this will make it THE cleanest and most efficient power station in the world, 99% CO2 capture, no NOx or SOx, yet giving near double the output power of an IGCC. Current press quotes are of 60% system electrical efficiency and they are working on catalysts to increase that, so it would be possible(unlike any other power station?) to very cheaply upgrade the power station in 2/5/7 years to maybe 65% then 70% efficiency(this type of fuel cell has reached this level in the lab many years ago). Also if you add CHP to the equation it will give a combined efficiency of over 90%, which is unbeatable.

Double power equals double revenue, yet consumes no more syngas than they would in an IGCC.

Contrary to posts here it won't cost the earth either, the cost is on target to be £300 per KW in Q1 2011. That's about 20% of the cost of an IGCC with CO2 capture and way less running costs, no downtime, etc. 

Also if Linc want to they can choose the AFC Energy ESCO (Energy Supply Company) option, whereby a company is setup probably as a JV between AFC and Linc, this company takes out a 10 year leasing agreement for the fuel cell power station, the leasing company pays AFC for the power station so Linc need no initial cash to pay for it. The ESCO buys the hydrogen from Linc and sells electric to the grid. AFC and Linc share the revenue from the electric. The power station pays for itself in 2 years with no gov't subsidies. If it gets subsidies(as its green/clean use of hydrogen and gives CHP energy) it could potentially pay for itself in ONE YEAR.

On top of that lot a 1GW(what Linc are looking at) will produce 2.5Bn litres of pure(deionized) water, this will be worth as much as one-third of the value of the electricity it produces. 1GW produces 8760GW/h per year. At 17.13c per KW/h is AU$1,500,588,000. One third of that is AU$500,196,000. At todays exchange rate of 1.80470 is £277,162,963. Not bad income, for just the water.


Quote from businessgreen.com coverage:
AFC said that the cells will last 10 to 13 years and can be sited anywhere, adding that for a 1,000MW power station they would produce over 2.5bn litres of clean water a year.


This is from the AFC/TNE project in Scotland, how environmentally friendly does this sound:
“If we did build a power station, it wouldn’t involve chimneys and boilers,” he said.
“In fact it would look more like a garden centre. It would be a glass building with fuel cells. There would be no chimneys and no smoke.”
The operation would involve extracting syngas—a gaseous mixture rich in hydrogen—from the coal seams, removing the sulphur and heavy metal elements and separating off the hydrogen content, which would be channelled into fuel cells for conversion into electricity.

As I can't post links yet, please search google for "AFC ENERGY" and read their announcements and broker notes. I now own AFC and Linc stock. AFC are listed on AIM in London, ticker AFC.


----------



## Coal Face

There is a video of Peter Bond on abnnewswire.net from the Limelight Series event, with a transcript. The link is on the top-left of the ABN homepage.

Here's a couple of good bits from the transcript:

Brian: What percentage would be used say for gas that goes into a power station to generate electricity as opposed to making diesel fuel on the other side?

Peter: If you have a gas to liquids plant, a large UCG operation that is making the gas from the underground coal and you have committed to a very large gas to liquids plant, which is the plant that makes it into diesel, that is like the size of an oil refinery, that takes your priority. So what you do is feed most of the gas through that. About 75% - 80% of the gas you put through that will turn into a liquids product. There is a percentage of gas left over that you would feed into the power station. So, it's about somewhere in the 75-80% would go to gas to liquids and 20-25% would go to power generation.


Brian: With the government looking at a fixed reduction of CO2 reduction of 5% by 2020 at the moment, the use of this sort of technology has the potential for Australia as a nation to push that number way higher. It's pretty significant, isn't it?

Peter: There is a number of ways, if you started to use our gasification process to feed gas fired turbines and using some of the other technology that we have access to, by using gas turbines, you are going to drop the CO2 footprint by 25-35% straight away. If you are using fuel cells in some of those applications you are going to drop by 85-90% because there is still some footprint and then you have the synthetic fuels production where the great benefit for that is because Australia has gone past "peak oil", every year that goes past we are importing more oil, and we have to pay for that , we have to physically write the cheque to the overseas countries to buy that oil. So the coal we export, the wheat we export, the iron ore that we export, etc. that is going towards paying for the oil we consume, and some of the other commodities, but every year that goes past we are basically just exporting our wealth to pay for the right to drive our cars. Now if you can produce the oil in this country and retain the wealth in this country, by doing something like we are doing with gas to liquids, then you don't have to write that cheque, the wealth stays in the country.


So any project using coal to make fuel is open to 20%-25% of its gas going to fuel cells. This adds in another market for AFC fuel cell power stations. 20% to 25% in Lincs case is a 1000MW power station.

Also, using turbines only reduces the overall GTL plants' CO2 emissions by 25% to 35%, but by using AFC fuel cells the overall GTL CO2 emissions are reduced by 85% to 90%, a staggering difference. In effect they are cleaning up the GTL emissions as well as providing double the power of a turbine.

I hope my two posts today answer your questions on the power station plans.


----------



## Coal Face

Just a quick post to confirm the 1GW fuel cell power station:

"We are going to have a significant amount of surplus hydrogen as a by-product at Orroroo and it is an ideal location for a couple of fuel cells,'' Mr Bond said.

"We will still have the gas to liquid plant at Orroroo but as part of making the gas for that plant we will end up with a large surplus supply of hydrogen and this is an ideal use for it.''

Mr Bond said the hydrogen could be used to fire a power station near the coal plant, with the electricity produced feeding into the main power grid.

"We would build the power station close to the site in a convenient location just adjacent to where we produce the gas, we would put the fuel cell containers within a couple of kilometres of the field and run a transmission line to the main grid.

"We could easily produce 1000 megawatt hours for the next 60,70, 80 years,'' Mr Bond said.

adelaidenow.com.au/business/mining/linc-energy-teams-up-with-uk-firm/story-e6fredhu-1225808685416?from=public_rss


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: Fuel Cell Power Station*



Coal Face said:


> On top of that lot a 1GW(what Linc are looking at) will produce 2.5Bn litres of pure(deionized) water, this will be worth as much as one-third of the value of the electricity it produces. *1GW produces 8760GW/h per year. At 17.13c per KW/h is AU$1,500,588,000*. One third of that is AU$500,196,000. At todays exchange rate of 1.80470 is £277,162,963. Not bad income, for just the water.



17.13c per kWh??? 4 cents is about the upper limit for baseload electricity.

A plant of that size would come close to running all of SA in the middle of the night, meanwhile other plants will remain online to avoid shutdown costs and there's limited ability to export to Vic without new transmission infrastructure. So a routine overnight price collapse, possibly below zero, is certainly not out of the question. More transmission to Vic would fix it, but that's not there now...

Even asssuming no maintenance outages, realistic gross revenue for such a power station is somewhere around $350 million a year.

What the water is actually worth in that location I really don't know but I'd assume it would be determined by the marginal operating cost of the new desal plant under construction in SA during dry years, and by the marginal cost of water from the Murray during wet years.


----------



## Coal Face

*Re: Fuel Cell Power Station*



Smurf1976 said:


> 17.13c per kWh??? 4 cents is about the upper limit for baseload electricity.




Of course baseload is cheaper but it only supplies 9% of power and low carbon energy is NOT that cheap. Low carbon energy gets a premium price and Gov't subsidies. On top of this they want to switch from the current dirty coal power stations to clean coal to reduce CO2 emissions, and you wont find anything cleaner than the fuel cell power station, fact. Quoting baseload price is misleading and irrelevant.

The observation that supposed baseload coal-fired power stations supply 91 per cent of all electricity consumed ABOVE base load requirements underlines the fact that the term baseload has no relevance in discussion of the supply of electricity
aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp09.htm


The Queensland Renewable Energy Plan (QREP) which was released in June 2009, has been established to increase the deployment of renewable energy infrastructure in Queensland. The Queensland Government estimates that successful implementation of the QREP will help leverage up to $3.5 billion in new investment, create up to 3500 jobs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 40 million tonnes by 2020.
dme.qld.gov.au/Energy/renewable_energy.cfm

Electricity generation in Australia is dominated by coal-fired power stations, which contribute one third of Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions. Significant change in the coal-fired energy sector will be required to substantially reduce emissions. The options are to introduce ‘clean coal’ technologies including geosequestration of CO2
aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp09.htm

In 2004, coal burning in Australia produced about 200 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 equivalent emissions, or about 35 per cent of the nation’s total greenhouse gas emissions. About 180 Mt came from electricity generation plants
aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp09.htm



> A plant of that size would come close to running all of SA in the middle of the night, meanwhile other plants will remain online to avoid shutdown costs and there's limited ability to export to Vic without new transmission infrastructure. So a routine overnight price collapse, possibly below zero, is certainly not out of the question. More transmission to Vic would fix it, but that's not there now...




That's rubbish and distorting the need for electricity in the region. Here's my proof:
"Queensland currently has a generation capacity of more than 10,000 megawatts (MW). Since 1998, $4.7 billion or 75 percent of new generation investment in the National Electricity Market has occurred in Queensland. Additionally, by 2015 approximately $12 billion more will be invested in more than 10,000 megawatts (MW) of new generation capacity across the National Electricity Market. Given the high quality and low cost of Queensland fuel sources, and their proximity to load growth, a significant proportion of this investment is expected to occur in this state."
dme.qld.gov.au/Energy/generation.cfm

So please tell us why they would are installing 10GW of NEW power locally if they don't need it? Tell us why after all the market research Linc have done they would build a 1GW power station if it wasn't required and thus they could not sell the electricity.

Also read theoildrum.com/pdf/theoildrum_4508.pdf




> Even asssuming no maintenance outages, realistic gross revenue for such a power station is somewhere around $350 million a year.




What a load of rubbish! do you really think Linc have their research and sums wrong, and would put in a power station costing c£40,000 per 50KW(or c£20,000 per 50KW under ESCO) if it was never going to reward them financially, let alone pay for much of the future GTL construction? Please tell us why Peter Bond is going to build the power station 2 years ahead of the GTL commissioning, when Linc have said in the Limelight event they will because "Selling electricity quickly into the grid would be an instant money earner".




> What the water is actually worth in that location I really don't know but I'd assume it would be determined by the marginal operating cost of the new desal plant under construction in SA during dry years, and by the marginal cost of water from the Murray during wet years.




Exactly which rock do you live under? ever heard of the drought? climate change that will make droughts in the years ahead last longer and be worse? that regions population growth causing a housing shortage? popluations expected to rise globally by +3Bn by 2050? 



Deionised water can be consumed(so long as you take mineral suppliments or its treated first) but 99.99% of it is currently sold to industries such as pharmaceutical and cosmetics, but loads more too and the price in those industrial uses is way higher(I have seen it at 15x the price AFC have quoted) for what the fuel cell water will be, extremely pure.

Today, deionized (Dl) water has become an essential ingredient in hundreds of applications including: medical, laboratory, pharmaceutical, cosmetics, electronics manufacturing, food processing, plating, countless industrial processes, and even the final rinse at the local car wash.
myronl.com/applications/diapp.htm

The South East Queensland Water Crisis. South East Queensland is currently experiencing the worst water shortage in over 100 years
mta.*qld*.edu.au/*water*_essay.pdf

independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australias-epic-drought-the-situation-is-grim-445450.html

energyfutures.qld.gov.au/climatesmart_2050.cfm


----------



## basilio

Hold on Coal face. I wouldn't be quite so harsh with your attacks on Smurf.

I agree that AFC is exciting. It seems to have very good legs and  very well could be a game breaker in our current power supply system. Certainly worth a close look

Just be nicer not to run over people too quickly on these forums. Smurf actually *does* knows a fair bit about the power industry and I'm sure is open to new ideas. 

Thanks.


----------



## basilio

There is a Limelight power point presentation on the Linc website. It was used in Sydney and I'm pretty sure was repeated in Melbourne.

Check it out.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/presentations.php

Also found the Dec 9th announcement of the deal with AFC. Excellent detail.
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-196.pdf


----------



## awg

Coal Face said:


> Of course baseload is cheaper but it only supplies 9% of power and low carbon energy is NOT that cheap.






basilio said:


> Hold on Coal face. I wouldn't be quite so harsh with your attacks on Smurf.)





Good to see a well researched reply Coal Face.

Smurf does know his stuff, maybe hasnt researched this particular matter to the extent you may have, nor have I, and I am glad you have presented the material.

One thing I will say as a long term LNC enthusiast, they have the most promising sounding announcements of any Co I have ever seen.

Would be excellent if they deliver


----------



## Smurf1976

I won't enter a personal debate and will simply post some facts from which people can draw their own conclusions. I am a long term holder of LNC by the way.

If you run any power station, regardless of technology or size, on a 24/7/365 basis (apart from maintenance shutdowns, breakdowns etc) then you will necessarily receive the time-weighted (not volume-weighted) average electricity price for your production. That applies whether it's coal, natural gas, nuclear or any other constant (baseload) source of electricity.

"Baseload" simply means that generation / consumption which is constant, effectively the minimum load on the system that is routinely reached. The type of generating plant generally used for such applications is that with the lowest operating cost which, in general, also means a high capital cost. It also includes any plant with inflexibility in operation that doesn't facilitate rapid changes in load. So nuclear and coal plants are commonly used for baseload operation - they are cheap to run, expensive to build and not well suited to rapid changes in output.

*Even taking baseload as only 1000MW (versus the 4000MW peak loading on the system) in SA then baseload is still fully two thirds of total electricity consumed in SA.* Baseload generation absolutely dominates total generation just about everywhere, indeed SA with its roughly 65% (of all electricity generated) figure is incredibly low by world standards due to it having one of the world's peakiest electricity demands. 

Practial baseload in Queensland or Tasmania, for example, is 80% of all electricity generated. Even moreso in Tassie during Summer, when it's close to 90% since there's simply no such thing as a peak at that time of year in Tas and not a lot of daily variation overall (very different during Winter though).

Simple maths explains this. If you have 1000 MW going constantly, plus another 3000 MW on top of that which is variable but only averages about 500 MW, then the constant 1000 MW load is by definition the majority (two thirds in this case) of total production over the year. That's where most of the generation actually occurs and it's where most of the fuel is burnt. Obviously I've rounded these figures but they're close to the actual.

"Intermediate" or "shoulder" means that variation in demand above baseload which is routine, generally every business day. It is generally supplied from natural flow hydro, pumped storage, gas or older (higher operating cost) coal-fired plant. Gas, natural flow hydro and coal are the predominant means in Australia, with gas the predominant means in SA. 

"peak" is the generation / demand that doesn't happen very often and is generally influenced by seasonal factors such as air-conditioning or heating loads. It is most commonly supplied from natural flow hydro, gas, oil or pumped storage with gas, natural hydro and pumped storage being predominant in Australia although we do use some oil at true extremes of demand. Whilst some peaking generation will operate regularly, it is very unusual to actually need to run all of it - if it happens then either it's well over 40 degrees, there's snow on the ground or other power stations have broken down.

Following relates to demand rather than generation. I'm posting this to illustrate the overall extent of the market.

In South Australia there's a bit over 1000 MW (1 GW) baseload and about 500 MW intermediate load that occurs most days. Plus another 2500 MW peak load that only occurs when it's either hot (common in SA) or on a lesser scale when it's very cold.

Certainly it's possible to send energy from SA to another state (in practice Victoria) but the capacity of present transmission infrastructure is limited. Usable capacity is influenced by a lot of circumstances, but 420 MW is the realistic limit under present arrangements (unless more infrastructure is built etc).

So if 1000 MW is added to SA generation capacity then to a very large extent it simply displaces existing generation. Sure, we do need to add more capacity incrementally as peak loads increase, but I very much doubt that LNC would be intending peak load operation given the nature of their proposed plant. 

I am not saying there is anything "wrong" with LNC building a 1000 MW power station in SA. But to be adding that much capacity and selling it at 17 cents / kWh just isn't going to happen when you realise that existing power stations have ongoing operating costs under one fifth that price.

I just can't see any realistic scenario of prices averaging 17 cents per kWh over the long term unless we're talking about some sort of natural disaster wiping out power stations etc or taxation. If prices did go that high, every man and his dog will be rushing to build a wind farm at half that cost. Likewise we'll see an exodus of energy-intensive industry, the economy fall in a hole and so on.

Average electricity prices for 2009-10 financial year to date as follows. All prices are in cents per kWh.

SA 6.023, Vic 3.188, NSW 5.250, Tas 2.629, Qld 3.845

Average for 2008-09 financial year:
SA 5.098, Vic 4.182, NSW 3.885, Tas 5.848, Qld 3.400

Average for 2007-08 financial year:
SA 7.350, Vic 4.679, NSW 4.166, Tas 5.468, Qld 5.234

Average for 2006-07 financial year:
SA 5.161, Vic 5.480, NSW 5.872, Tas 4.956, Qld 5.214

Average for 2005-06 financial year:
SA 3.776, Vic 3.247, NSW 3.724, Tas 5.676, Qld 2.812


----------



## Smurf1976

Actual data from the week 24th to 30th January inclusive from AEMO.

NSW - baseload for the week was 71.4% of average load (total generation).

Qld - 74.2%

SA - 67.9%

Vic - 75.1%

Tas - 84.6%

These figures are quite simply the % of total load that is accounted for by constant running at the minimum load level for the week. Now, you build power stations based on the long term not just one week, but they are representative of the situation.

*These figures won't change at all with a change of generation technology since they are a function of the load, not the means of generation*. If minimum load in the middle of the night (baseload) is 80% of average load then it is 80% of average load no matter what sort of generation you are using.

As for prices, in SA they averaged 2.609 cents per kWh for the week with a range of 5.707 down to -1.052 (yes, prices do go negative at times due to power stations wanting to avoid shutdown costs).

As I said, I'm not against the LNC project at all and I'm a holder of LNC shares. But to base any assumption on an electricity price of 17 cents per kWh is effectively speculation over inflation rather than something which can be achieved right now.


----------



## Dukey

Smurf1976 said:


> I won't enter a personal debate and will simply post some facts from which people can draw their own conclusions. I am a long term holder of LNC by the way.
> 
> If you run any power station, regardless of technology or size, on a 24/7/365 basis (apart from maintenance shutdowns, breakdowns etc) then you will necessarily receive the time-weighted (not volume-weighted) average electricity price for your production. That applies whether it's coal, natural gas, nuclear or any other constant (baseload) source of electricity.
> 
> "Baseload" simply means that generation / consumption which is constant, effectively the minimum load on the system that is routinely reached. The type of generating plant generally used for such applications is that with the lowest operating cost which, in general, also means a high capital cost. It also includes any plant with inflexibility in operation that doesn't facilitate rapid changes in load. So nuclear and coal plants are commonly used for baseload operation - they are cheap to run, expensive to build and not well suited to rapid changes in output.
> 
> *Even taking baseload as only 1000MW (versus the 4000MW peak loading on the system) in SA then baseload is still fully two thirds of total electricity consumed in SA.* Baseload generation absolutely dominates total generation just about everywhere, indeed SA with its roughly 65% (of all electricity generated) figure is incredibly low by world standards due to it having one of the world's peakiest electricity demands.
> 
> Practial baseload in Queensland or Tasmania, for example, is 80% of all electricity generated. Even moreso in Tassie during Summer, when it's close to 90% since there's simply no such thing as a peak at that time of year in Tas and not a lot of daily variation overall (very different during Winter though).
> 
> Simple maths explains this. If you have 1000 MW going constantly, plus another 3000 MW on top of that which is variable but only averages about 500 MW, then the constant 1000 MW load is by definition the majority (two thirds in this case) of total production over the year. That's where most of the generation actually occurs and it's where most of the fuel is burnt. Obviously I've rounded these figures but they're close to the actual.
> 
> "Intermediate" or "shoulder" means that variation in demand above baseload which is routine, generally every business day. It is generally supplied from natural flow hydro, pumped storage, gas or older (higher operating cost) coal-fired plant. Gas, natural flow hydro and coal are the predominant means in Australia, with gas the predominant means in SA.
> 
> "peak" is the generation / demand that doesn't happen very often and is generally influenced by seasonal factors such as air-conditioning or heating loads. It is most commonly supplied from natural flow hydro, gas, oil or pumped storage with gas, natural hydro and pumped storage being predominant in Australia although we do use some oil at true extremes of demand. Whilst some peaking generation will operate regularly, it is very unusual to actually need to run all of it - if it happens then either it's well over 40 degrees, there's snow on the ground or other power stations have broken down.
> 
> Following relates to demand rather than generation. I'm posting this to illustrate the overall extent of the market.
> 
> In South Australia there's a bit over 1000 MW (1 GW) baseload and about 500 MW intermediate load that occurs most days. Plus another 2500 MW peak load that only occurs when it's either hot (common in SA) or on a lesser scale when it's very cold.
> 
> Certainly it's possible to send energy from SA to another state (in practice Victoria) but the capacity of present transmission infrastructure is limited. Usable capacity is influenced by a lot of circumstances, but 420 MW is the realistic limit under present arrangements (unless more infrastructure is built etc).
> 
> So if 1000 MW is added to SA generation capacity then to a very large extent it simply displaces existing generation. Sure, we do need to add more capacity incrementally as peak loads increase, but I very much doubt that LNC would be intending peak load operation given the nature of their proposed plant.
> 
> I am not saying there is anything "wrong" with LNC building a 1000 MW power station in SA. But to be adding that much capacity and selling it at 17 cents / kWh just isn't going to happen when you realise that existing power stations have ongoing operating costs under one fifth that price.
> 
> I just can't see any realistic scenario of prices averaging 17 cents per kWh over the long term unless we're talking about some sort of natural disaster wiping out power stations etc or taxation. If prices did go that high, every man and his dog will be rushing to build a wind farm at half that cost. Likewise we'll see an exodus of energy-intensive industry, the economy fall in a hole and so on.
> 
> Average electricity prices for 2009-10 financial year to date as follows. All prices are in cents per kWh.
> 
> SA 6.023, Vic 3.188, NSW 5.250, Tas 2.629, Qld 3.845
> 
> Average for 2008-09 financial year:
> SA 5.098, Vic 4.182, NSW 3.885, Tas 5.848, Qld 3.400
> 
> Average for 2007-08 financial year:
> SA 7.350, Vic 4.679, NSW 4.166, Tas 5.468, Qld 5.234
> 
> Average for 2006-07 financial year:
> SA 5.161, Vic 5.480, NSW 5.872, Tas 4.956, Qld 5.214
> 
> Average for 2005-06 financial year:
> SA 3.776, Vic 3.247, NSW 3.724, Tas 5.676, Qld 2.812




Smurf - as you know,I have a passing interest in this topic... do you know what might account for the large variations in av price in Qld particularly and other states to a lesser extent in the figures you posted above.  05-06 = 2.6c  ; 07-08 up to 5.2c/kWh.... seems a huge variation?


----------



## Smurf1976

Dukey said:


> do you know what might account for the large variations in av price in Qld particularly and other states to a lesser extent in the figures you posted above.  05-06 = 2.6c  ; 07-08 up to 5.2c/kWh.... seems a huge variation?



The prices I posted were averages for the year. The electricity market itself sets a new price every 30 minutes based on trading and those prices can and do vary hugely. The absolute limits are -$1 to +$10 per kWh, either of which is extreme.

Main reasons, apart from normal supply and demand economics which affects electricity as it does every other industry, for the recent variations relate to coal prices and the drought (which affects coal-fired generation as well as hydro).

Qld in recent years there have been actual cuts in coal-fired output due to the drought. Units were actually shut down completely due to limited water availability. It's been a very real threat in NSW and Vic too. Meanwhile those states as well as Tasmania have suffered reduced inflows to hydro-electric schemes.

If you have a physical constraint on plant operation (in this case water) then you still need to be able to maintain production at times of peak demand (otherwise the lights will go out...). So what happens is that such plants offer higher prices, deliberately trying to price themselves out of the market so as to conserve remaining water for use when prices are at very high levels.

Now, when you get that happening at the same time in Tasmania, Queensland and to some extent NSW, meanwhile there's a hydro plant in Vic with literally no water at all, then it comes down largely to supply and demand. Consumption is unchanged but there is less competition to supply it and so prices go up. All of a sudden, generators are no longer focused only on costs but also have to deal with a physical limit on operation - hence they'll try to only sell at high prices and let someone else gain market share at other times.

Hydro generation deals with that all the time but it's not normal with coal or gas to be limited in operation. But certainly with hydro, the price the generation is offered for is basically set with reference to expected market prices so as to achieve pre-determined water release volumes over a given period. You only have a limited resource, and hydro plant can stop and start _very_ quickly. So you try and sell that water at the best (electricity) price you can get. But bring a flood and then you just run 24/7 (otherwise the dams will overflow) and take whatever price you can get...

Also there are different costs of production from different sources. Gas-fired generation, for example, can't possibly offer competitive prices at off-peak times since operating costs are much higher with gas than with coal. But if the market is tight then there's not much choice - during the height of the drought there were a few gas-fired peaking plants running all day.

It's very common that spot prices sit around the marginal cost of either a particular large power station or a generic technology type. Off-peak prices often hover around the marginal cost of generation from black coal in NSW and Qld. Intermediate prices often hover around the marginal cost of generation from gas in SA and Vic. Peak prices, expecially during Winter evenings, often top out at about the cost of running kero/diesel generation.

And on top of all that, good old supply and demand both legitimate and through gaming the market. The former is pretty simple - if demand is high and supply is tight and you own a large power station then, even at risk of losing some volume, you can hike prices to ridiculous levels.

Gaming is a bit different and is basically an exploitation of the technical limits of rival generating companies. You offer a low price, possibly even negative, and force others off-line (generally a financial decision rather than technical) when demand is low and price forecasts for the next few days are also low. Then when that's done, you just wait until demand is near its' daily peak and suddenly revise all your pricing to ridiculous levels knowing that rivals can't possibly ramp up production quickly. Instant windfall... 

There's a lot of differnt approaches to this gaming of the market but a very key one is mainaining the impression of you being a danger to rivals, someone who can send the price wherever they like but in a manner that nobody can predict. Beyond that, there's lots of actual strategies going on. Selling forward large volumes during high price periods, then using your own production to crash the market at those times so as to cover what is effectively a short position, is another one that comes to mind. Lots of games in this industry...


----------



## basilio

Really, really fascinating stuff Smurf... I sort of knew a bit about how the power industry worked but your explanations are very scary in their implications.

*The clearest point is that one of the most vital industries our country has is largely a big poker game. Trying to bluff competitors with tactics, tricks whatever.*

Another critical issue is just how water dependent our supply system is.  I think this fact has been overlooked in many discussions but the amount of water that power companies require is a huge factor in the resource costs we currently face to keep our society going. And as water supplies tighten even further with global warming and population growth this can only get dramatically worse.( *That factor alone should be a significant element in the opportunity for AFC's fuel cell.*)

Also noticed the difference between actual production costs and what the punter pays. Certainly tells us about how profitable this system is for those in the middle.

This also calls into question the idea that LINC or indeed any other UCG company can simply start up a power plant and pull in heaps of dollars.  I just can't see how the current players will countenance such a situation.  In that context we can see the huge conflict between current self interest  by companies with enormous amount of sunk capital in plant and practically free coal versus disruptive new technologies that are clean, produce valuable by products and are seemingly quite cost competitive. 

On current indications the planet and the people will go to hell before the power companies let go of their positions...

This possibly means that in the current situation the original GTL market still makes the most sense for LINC.  There will be a rapidly rising demand for diesel as oil supplies slump and there will be no way  entry into market will be as controlled.

________________________________________________________________
*
But a big question remains.. Given the  structure of the power industry, how on earth will we ever reorient our electricity generation system to pollution free technologies at the speed required to half tackle global warming? And does any government have the wit and the courage to recognise the situation and do whatever it takes to give us a chance of survival?  *


----------



## Smurf1976

Some practical examples.

Let's say that I own a small (50MW) diesel-fired gas turbine plant (there are a few significant diesel plants in the market, primarily in SA and Qld but also NSW).

Now, my 50MW plant (located anywhere on the main grid) is too small to meaningfully alter market prices except on rare occasions. So what I'll do is simply offer my production to the market at any price that is above my operating cost (primarily fuel given that diesel is a relatively expensive means of generation). My plant will sit idle almost all the time, but it will be running flat out during price spikes and the average price I receive will be well above the 5 cents or so average market price. I might average 50c or even $1, versus fuel costs of 25c, but I'll produce very little power over the year. All my profit will be made in just a few hours each year. If we don't get any really hot days in Summer or other things (eg breakdowns at major power stations) sending prices up, the plant could sit idle for months. 

...

Now for a 300 MW gas-fired open cycle (intermediate, peaking) plant in Qld, NSW, Vic or SA. At this level there will be times I can affect the market price and I will make my offers accordingly. But other times there will be too much competition at around the same price for me to have any pricing power - take it or leave it.

So I'd offer a bit above marginal operating cost most of the time (which will mean the plant sits idle since coal and gas combined cycle are cheaper) but I could reasonably expect my plant to run fairly often during Summer and again during mid-Winter. I'll get an average price that's a bit above the average in the market, perhaps around 8 cents over the long term. If the market gets tight enough, I'll put my prices up to very high levels to take advantage of it - but I won't be able to do that very often with only 300 MW.

...

Now for a 2500 MW coal-fired plant in Victoria. 

In short, all I have to do is routinely offer my minimum technically viable output (around 1500 MW assuming it's brown coal being used) at a price that keeps the plant running efficiently - I'll literally pay the market to take it if need be since I don't want the plant shut down thus missing higher prices and costing a fortune to restart.

But if I have 2500 MW then quite often my power will genuinely be needed, I've got 25% of the entire state's generating capacity after all. And the moment it does get tight, you're going to pay, pay and pay again - I'll charge whatever I like up to the cap ($10 per kWh) even if that means I lose a bit of volume. Heck, I'll even create a few mysterious technical problems that just happen to always occur at times of high demand and force my output down if I need to in order to create a tight market. If I get really brave, I'll just dump steam straight into the condenser (total waste of fuel burned) in order to get output down below normal minimums (it's the boilers that need to keep running at fairly high output). And if anyone gets too keen on competing, well with cery cheap coal I can always offer very low prices and just run flat out, thus keeping prices low.

These are all hypothetical power plants, but they are based on what really does happen in practice.

Personally I'm not at all keen on this system of running the power industry since it does directly lead to inefficient use of resources and higher CO2 emissions than would otherwise occur. Also it's seen market prices averaging higher than they really needed to - you can build new baseload generation in Australia for no more than 4 cents per kWh using black coal or gas.

But it's the system we've got...

Look at the situation in Tasmania right at this moment. 37% of load being supplied from Victoria where the price is just 2.458 cents. No way could we build new generation in Tas for that price, so with hydro storages at just 40% it makes sense to buy as much as we can get when it's that cheap rather than building something new here.

Overall, the fundamental characteristic of the market nationally is of low prices (below long term cost of production) the vast majority of the time but with the occasional spike to very high levels bringing in the $ to the generation industry. It works very nicely if you just want cheap baseload power that might be interrupted (by cost) every now and then - exactly what Tasmania is doing in preference to building more generation locally since with a storage based hydro system, that the cheap supply from Vic is intermittent doesn't matter at all. It's all system yield no matter when and how it arrives.

As for LNC, fundametally their competitive edge is in gas production, not electricity or even diesel per se. They seem to have a cheap means of getting gas, that is their competitive edge. Anyone can buy natural gas and produce diesel or electricity with it, but if LNC gan produce their own syngas and do it cheaply then that's where their advantage is. Long term, I can see them selling syngas via pipeline direct to major industry etc too.

One obvious point is that if LNC can supply combustible gas at significantly below the price of natural gas, then there will be plenty of existing large natural gas consumers wanting to switch. Sure, a pipeline network will need to be built, but the demand would surely be there.

So should LNC go into the power industry? If they can do it profitably then why not? But the decision should be based on market pricing and costs of their competitors, not speculation that we're about to see prices more than triple when there is no fundamental reason why they ought to (unless LNC knows something the rest of the industry doesn't...).

Oil is a bit different, there are fundamental reasons for prices to trend upwards assuming global demand does rise and there are no major surprise discoveries. But even there, I doubt that LNC would be assuming an oil price several times higher than that at present - it would be an outright gamble to build the plant if it's only viable at $300 per barrel or something like that.


----------



## Dukey

certainly is interesting smurf... seems crazy! has this situation only come about since privatisation of the old state Electrical companies... or was it like that before?

Basilio has a good point about how can smaller CSG/UCG gas fired elec producers fit into this game played by the big boys... apart from simply being eaten by them (ie taken over/bought out) or partnering - supply agreements etc?

=======
EDIT: looks like you already may have answered.


----------



## Coal Face

Some good replies to my posts from yesterday, but questions still remain so lets ad it all up:

Australia:
1) has huge CO2 emissions, 90% of it comes from coal power
2) will do everything possible to cut those CO2 emissions before the whole country is frying
3) has increasing power needs
4) needs to preserve/increase water
5) has an increasing population
6) in Queensland, plans to ban any new 'dirty coal' plants
7) unlikely to be able to build any new nuclear power plants for 30 years

Coal Power:
1) must be done with CCS
2) must have nearly if not zero emissions to be accepted by the people
3) uses 2.2Bn gallons of water per annum for a 500MW plant(plus mining water)
4) loses 25% of its efficiency when CCS is added
5) increases water usage by 23% when CCS is added
6) IGCC Capital costs are estimated at about US$3,300/kW.
7) overall system efficiency of coal+IGCC is only 35% to 38%
8) many coal power stations cannot have CCS retrofitted
9) the cost of retrofit on many other coal power stations is inhibitive
10 coal power with CCS added is not clean at all
11) power prices will have to rise dramatically to pay for CO2 reduction measures because the carbon price wont get close to mitigating it until at least 2030


AFC Fuel Cells
1) Produce 2.5Bn litres of water for 1GW of power
2) already provide 99% CCS as part of the process
3) do not lose efficiency with CCS added as it's already in the loop
4) do not need more water when CCS is added as it's already in the loop
5) can supply pure water for the UCG steam injection resulting in no draw on local/regional water supplies for the UCG/GTL plant
6) offer 60%+ system efficiency, rising with fuel cell electrode development
7) Payback in 2 years with a 10-13 year lifespan
8) Under ESCO the power station is profitable from the outset

Conclusions
1) Australia has stopped or will stop building dirty coal power stations
2) Australia will bring in CO2 emissions legislation that many coal power staions can never be brought in line with, so they will have to shut down and be replaced by new clean power
3) Australia will decommission all dirty coal power stations(rather than add CCS) and replace them with clean/renewables power stations, so as to reduce CO2 emissions to the max
4) Australia will give high subsidies to renewable/green/clean power such as that coming from Linc via fuel cells so as to increase the rate of change to CO2 reduction
4) electric prices will have to rise to pay for the new low-CO2 power and people will have to live with it(pay up or burn up)
5) AFC fuel cells offer the highest CO2 capture, the least water use, the highest efficiency, the lowest environmental impact, this is why Linc will use them and they will be able to say "we have the cleanest coal power on earth and it's highly profitable".


*QUEENSLAND will ban new coal-fired power stations except for those that can be fitted with clean coal technology. *
The move institutionalises the technology in the nation's major coal-producing state.

The biggest loser in Queensland from an emissions trading scheme may be the state government, as it owns every coal-fired power station in the state.
Some are old, such as the Swanbank plant near Brisbane, which was built in 1972 and may have to be replaced if a strict emissions regime is introduced.

"Unfortunately there are a number of power stations already existing in Queensland, including some owned by the government, which were built many years ago before our understanding of what CO2 emissions were doing to the climate, which will be very difficult, in some cases to the point of impossibility, to retrofit," Ms Bligh said.

State miners welcomed the move, with Queensland Resources Council chief Michael Roche saying the main challenge facing the industry was to implement clean coal technology.
theaustralian.com.au/business/news/queensland-to-clean-up-coal-fired-power/story-e6frg90f-1225764557523


*CLEAN coal power stations are not viable until the carbon price reaches a minimum of $60 a tonne - a level the Australian government does not anticipate until almost 2030 - according to an audit by the Rudd government's own global carbon capture and storage institute. *

Coal power plants are among the other 55 planned commercial scale projects.
But the report finds that the cheapest CCS technology - oxyfuel combustion - only becomes viable at a carbon price of about $60 a tonne. Another technology, integrated gasification combined cycle, becomes viable at about $80 a tonne and a third - natural gas combined cycle - at about $112 a tonne.
theaustralian.com.au/business/news/clean-coal-strategy-not-viable-for-20-years/story-e6frg90f-1225792279353


[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Verdana,SunSans-Regular]A typical 500-megawatt coal-fired power plant draws about 2.2 billion gallons of water each year from nearby water bodies, such as lakes, rivers, or oceans, to create steam for turning its turbines. This is enough water to support a city of approximately 250,000 people.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Verdana,SunSans-Regular]When this water is drawn into the power plant, 21 million fish eggs, fish larvae, and juvenile fish may also come along with it -- and that's the average for a single species in just one year. In addition, EPA estimates that up to 1.5 million adult fish a year may become trapped against the intake structures. Many of these fish are injured or die in the process.[/FONT]
ucsusa.org/clean_energy/coalvswind/c02b.html


Fact cheet on clean coal and IGCC
energyjustice.net/coal/igcc/factsheet.pdf


----------



## Smurf1976

Dukey said:


> certainly is interesting smurf... seems crazy! has this situation only come about since privatisation of the old state Electrical companies... or was it like that before?



It's an outcome caused by the nature of the market rather than who owns the power stations (though it wouldn't happen if there was only one owner either public or private). 

If you want maximum efficiency then you prioritise operation according to that objective. That was the way just about every electric utility in the world used to do it - maximise use of the most efficient plant they had, minimise use of the oldest and least efficient. 

Then it all changed and it all became about money. Now we end up running old open cycle gas turbines whilst new combined cycle units (with literally half the CO2 emissions) within walking distance sit idle. That's not sensible, but it's how the game works. Even worse when plant is deliberately run inefficiently to reduce output so as to force higher cost plant online and prices up. At the extreme, that's a 100% waste of the fuel being burned in those less efficient plants at the time.

Worth noting that Qld and NSW both now have average emission levels (per unit of output) that are above what could be achieved using 100% coal-fired generation, from the actual plants those states have, if they were simply operated at maximum efficiency. And yet we've got Swanbank E, Yabulu etc (gas) and the Snowy Hydro in those states.

Bottom line is that if you want maximum technical efficiency and minimum fuel use then you have to run the power plants as a team to meet total system load, not in competition with each other _based on fictional pricing_. Sure, compete based on actual costs by all means, that's only sensible. But this competing based on fictional pricing that changes all the time means we end up running inefficient plants flat out while efficient ones dump steam due to lack of load and everything is operated less efficiently with regular operating changes every time the fictional prices change.

Trouble is, you actually do need that flexible market if energy-constrained generation like hydro and wind is to be integrated into it. But it doesn't work for coal and gas.

Ultimately, it's another example of sound engineering abandoned in favour of something the bankers can play with in order to shuffle money about.


----------



## Coal Face

Conference date

5th-annual-coal-to-liquids-and-gas-to-liquids-conference

Tuesday 16th February 2010


12.20

The progress of UCG to GTL: Growth & potential 
Linc's commercial path in SA and the United States
Linc Project updates
Opportunities and development challenges
Case studies in Australia and overseas
Justyn Peters, General Manager, Government and Environmental Affairs, Linc Energy

http://www.iir.com.au/informa-confe...s-and-gas-to-liquids-conference-P10R06/agenda


Interesting to note that Liberty Resources are also looking at Hydrogen energy, I wonder if Linc might operate a fuel cell power station for Liberty, as Linc do have exclusivity to AFC fuel cells for 2 years(they can extend this to perpetuity).

4.30

Creating cleaner energy - Hydrogen fuel and other options 
UCG to Hydrogen energy
Transport fuels
Transporting energy from production to market
Peter Sallans, General Manager UCG, Liberty Resources


----------



## Coal Face

http://cleantechnica.com/2010/01/25...wer-plants-in-developing-countries/#more-4547


----------



## springhill

Coal Face said:


> Conference date
> 
> 5th-annual-coal-to-liquids-and-gas-to-liquids-conference
> 
> Tuesday 16th February 2010
> 
> 
> 12.20
> 
> The progress of UCG to GTL: Growth & potential
> Linc's commercial path in SA and the United States
> Linc Project updates
> Opportunities and development challenges
> Case studies in Australia and overseas
> Justyn Peters, General Manager, Government and Environmental Affairs, Linc Energy
> 
> http://www.iir.com.au/informa-confe...s-and-gas-to-liquids-conference-P10R06/agenda
> 
> 
> Interesting to note that Liberty Resources are also looking at Hydrogen energy, I wonder if Linc might operate a fuel cell power station for Liberty, as Linc do have exclusivity to AFC fuel cells for 2 years(they can extend this to perpetuity).
> 
> 4.30
> 
> Creating cleaner energy - Hydrogen fuel and other options
> UCG to Hydrogen energy
> Transport fuels
> Transporting energy from production to market
> Peter Sallans, General Manager UCG, Liberty Resources




Hi Coal Face, Carbon Energy have already executed a HoA with Liberty to access their tenaments in the Galilee Basin.

Here is the link;
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090727/pdf/31jr4ztp13w29p.pdf


----------



## Coal Face

springhill

I know that, but Carbon Energy are mainly the UCG specialist.

If Linc offered the LR/CE JV a fuel cell power station on ESCO(at nil cost) I think they would take it, the benefits are massive in comparison to using a turbine. Even CE say on their website that the best they can get is about 78% CO2 capture(and that would cost a fourtune, lower efficiency 25% and raise water usage 23%), with fuel cells it's already 99% CO2 capture with no downside.

"coal-fired power stations (880 kg/MWh)"

*"Partial Shift with CCS *less than 200 kg/MWhr"

http://www.carbonenergy.com.au/inde...ion-carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-clean-coal


----------



## Coal Face

Aussie UCG's tipped 


Feb 07, 2010 (BRW - ABIX via COMTEX) -- 
Australian-listed underground coal gasification stocks deserve more interest from investors who are not afraid of speculative investments. There are five companies to choose from: Linc Energy, Carbon Energy, Cougar Energy, Clean Global Energy and Liberty Resources. These companies may be illiquid and their share prices may be volatile, but their long-term prospects are excellent. 
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/lncgy_long-term-potential-759313.html


----------



## Coal Face

21st Century Ultimate Guide to Clean Coal: FutureGen Power Plant, Carbon Dioxide Control and Carbon Sequestration, Hydrogen Production Research (Two CD-ROMs) 

Product Description 
Here is your authoritative guide to all aspects of clean coal, from the Federal Government! These discs represent the best coverage of clean coal technology development available in any single package! This unique two CD-ROM guide covers every aspect of clean coal. The federal government, through the Energy Department and the National Energy Technology Laboratory, is financing a research portfolio that is designed to remove environmental concerns over the future use of coal by developing revolutionary, near-zero emissions coal technology. In partnership with the private sector, technology developments are focused on maximizing efficiency and environmental performance while driving down the cost for these new technologies. RD&D efforts focus on near-term developments to enhance the capabilities of the existing fleet of coal-fired power plants while, in parallel, developing the technology base for future coal energy plants. These future technologies will ultimately be integrated in the FutureGen project, which will serve as a commercial-scale R&D test bed for showcasing advanced coal technologies. The central challenge is to provide coal-based technologies that essentially eliminate pollutant emissions, manage carbon emissions, and remain cost competitive. NETL's RD&D efforts in coal and power systems contribute to several vital national goals: Clean power generation. Coal fuels the majority of power generation capacity in the United States and in many other areas of the world. With technology advances, future coal power systems will be dramatically cleaner and more efficient than plants based on older technologies. Secure and reliable energy supplies. Coal is an abundant domestic energy resource. At current rates of consumption, coal could meet U.S. needs for more than 250 years. With new technologies, our Nation can use this valuable resource while also meeting environmental protection goals. Climate change. On a global and national level, coal use accounts for a significant proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. Making coal power systems more efficient contributes to the national goal of reducing carbon intensity. Toward a hydrogen economy. Our large domestic coal resources offer a viable mid-term resource for producing the large quantities of hydrogen. RD&D efforts in coal and power systems fall into three categories: Technologies that enable existing coal power plants to cost effectively meet environmental requirements. NETL and its research partners are developing environmental control technologies for retrofitting existing power plants, with application to new plants as well. Key areas of research include cost-effective control of mercury, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and fine particulate emissions; beneficial uses for coal utilization byproducts; and innovations to minimize the impact of fossil-fuel use on the Nation's water resources. Technologies for coal power plants of the future with dramatically improved performance. NETL is developing a technology base for the highly efficient, near zero- emissions power plants of tomorrow. Technologies under development for future power plants include coal gasification, advanced turbines, combustion technologies, and distributed generation and fuel cells. The FutureGen prototype ultimately will combine advanced systems with carbon sequestration and coal fuels technology to co-produce electricity and hydrogen with nearzero emissions. To support coal and power systems development, NETL conducts a range of pre-competitive advanced research, focused on breakthroughs in materials, sensors and controls, biotechnology and bioprocessing, pollutant formation and removal, and advanced computational processes. Clean coal demonstration projects. 

http://coalgeology.com/21st-century...ion-hydrogen-production-research-two-cd-roms/


----------



## Coal Face

springhill,

This is an announcement from AFC Energy about using fuel cells with UCG. You can see clearly it is on the Liberty Resources website and the benefits to Liberty have even been highlighted in the file, by Liberty themselves.

http://www.libertyresources.com.au/pdf/75_pdf1_First UK Licence Awarded to Carry Out UCG.pdf


----------



## mexican

They gave a hint in the quartly report couple of weeks ago, top of page 9.
It will be very interesting if this turns out to be a significant deposit.


----------



## basilio

So now we find oil! Nice announcement this morning of  oil traces amongst the coal seams that LINC is finding Arckaringa Basin.

As usual Peter Bond is promoting it as "extremely exciting " and a measure of the great things to come. 

And of course the SP has had a good  flip to $1.49.  (seems like the $1.40 buyers have made a killing!!)

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-206.pdf


----------



## The Dealer

Not until I sell them.
Would also like to thank someone there who said I should go with momemtum and buy below $1.40. So I bought more for less than 1.40!
I wont tell you what strike price I have put on some of them or you may buy them at the higher price by mistake!


----------



## basilio

What a perverse little market we have.!! Find more coal, find some oil into the bargain, you see a nice yelp and then it just all falls down again..

*Hate to see what would happen* if there was any actual bad news let alone nothing in particular! Obviously more people want out than in at the moment.

What a great character building exercise...


----------



## Jonathan111

Australian Energy Report 10th February

AER: Are you actively involved in seeking buyers for the Emerald Coal asset, and do you think that last years indicative price of around $1.5 billion is still achievable?

PB: Absolutely and its a good question. Its not just Emerald Coal but also Galilee - its a combination of assets and from that perspective yeah the combination of those still attract something in that value range. How you get there whether its all cash or part cash part participation where we still retain a share, theres a couple of ways you can cut that cake but certainly in hard value back to our shareholders I strongly believe that it has a cash value of around that sort of number.

I mean those two assets in Galilee at 7.8 billion tonnes is bigger than Clive Palmers announcement of his combined assets north and south which are two distinct mine areas. We have 1 mine area 7.8 billion tonnes of which over 2 billion tonnes will be open cuttable. Its an outstanding resource. Weve just finished the mine plan on Emerald which is just outside of Emerald which is 15 km literally just out of town and literally our neighbors are Rio Tinton and BHP. We just finished the mine plan through a 3rd party and just completed that work on top of some initial modeling that weve done and its outstanding I mean its come out better than what I even I believed and Im obviously fairly exuberant about it. And Galilee its turning out to be a very good asset and I am more that confident that 1.5 billion is a reasonably attained number.

Now that said, we need to nail it and get the cash in the bank. Now we would have 2 or 3 parties that we are actively negotiating with and we could have probably have come out with a couple of announcements by now but I dont want to come out with any false starts. I want to come out with this as the deal - this is exactly how its structured. Is the money in the bank? This is the deposit. And you dont want to come out with anything too early. And that would be a mistake. We want something ready in a box, ready to go with the cash and everyone knows exactly where we stand.

We are very firm in how we are negotiating the asset that said we have a lot of people interested and the more people look at it the more they realize what a good asset it is.


----------



## basilio

]


> Australian Energy Report 10th February




Nice find Jonathan. Would be good to see the whole interview or perhaps this is it?

What did I get from it? Peter believes that the coal resources are worth a lot of money and he is intent on getting full value for them. He obviously feels a bit burnt over the earlier announcements that have come to nothing and  which embarrassed him and Linc.

It seems clear that there won't be any announcements in the near or even mid term future and that when they are made they should stick. Or so it seems.

I suppose my reservations as a keenly interested shareholder are 

1) *Lincs main game is turning coal into oil.* That will take a lot of cash and at least 2-3 years. In that context getting cashed up ASAP would enable the main plan to get going promptly and properly.. After all it is clear that  the realities of peak oil will hit within 2-3 years.  That won't be a good time to look for cash. It will be a good time to sell diesel.

2) *I seem to see a lot of coal exploration around  and new finds made regularly. *I wonder if potential buyers can be more choosy and thus string the process out. This would delay settlement repeatedly.

3) *I have a concern about the overall fragility of the share market and the world economy. *If it is tough negotiating a good deal now what could it look like if Greece or Portugal or Spain or whatever fall over causing some extreme economic crisis? 

If things just drift along I could see Lincs SP drifting further downwards - possibly even collapsing if nasty crunch occurs. The opportunity to raise further cash to stay afloat in such a market would be minimal or extremely expensive. Is this a reasonable risk to take?

I appreciate that management is actively exploring many other options to ensure ongoing liquidity but is it possible to be too cute in what is a very volatile market place ? I can't see these options bringing in as much cash as sale of the coal. 

What do other forum members think ?


----------



## Nero64

*Quoted by Peter Bond*




> _"Now we would have 2 or 3 parties that we are actively negotiating with and we could have probably have come out with a couple of announcements by now but I dont want to come out with any false starts. I want to come out with this as the deal - this is exactly how its structured. Is the money in the bank? This is the deposit. And you dont want to come out with anything too early. And that would be a mistake. We want something ready in a box, ready to go with the cash and everyone knows exactly where we stand."_




That is quite amusing especially the bit about not wanting to come out too early, considering he has given 3-4 false start announcements in the past.  

These were obviously mistakes then Peter, considering people were buying on hope of the sale.


----------



## namrog

basilio said:


> ]
> 
> 
> Nice find Jonathan. Would be good to see the whole interview or perhaps this is it?
> 
> What did I get from it? Peter believes that the coal resources are worth a lot of money and he is intent on getting full value for them. He obviously feels a bit burnt over the earlier announcements that have come to nothing and  which embarrassed him and Linc.
> 
> It seems clear that there won't be any announcements in the near or even mid term future and that when they are made they should stick. Or so it seems.
> 
> I suppose my reservations as a keenly interested shareholder are
> 
> 1) *Lincs main game is turning coal into oil.* That will take a lot of cash and at least 2-3 years. In that context getting cashed up ASAP would enable the main plan to get going promptly and properly.. After all it is clear that  the realities of peak oil will hit within 2-3 years.  That won't be a good time to look for cash. It will be a good time to sell diesel.
> 
> 2) *I seem to see a lot of coal exploration around  and new finds made regularly. *I wonder if potential buyers can be more choosy and thus string the process out. This would delay settlement repeatedly.
> 
> 3) *I have a concern about the overall fragility of the share market and the world economy. *If it is tough negotiating a good deal now what could it look like if Greece or Portugal or Spain or whatever fall over causing some extreme economic crisis?
> 
> If things just drift along I could see Lincs SP drifting further downwards - possibly even collapsing if nasty crunch occurs. The opportunity to raise further cash to stay afloat in such a market would be minimal or extremely expensive. Is this a reasonable risk to take?
> 
> I appreciate that management is actively exploring many other options to ensure ongoing liquidity but is it possible to be too cute in what is a very volatile market place ? I can't see these options bringing in as much cash as sale of the coal.
> 
> What do other forum members think ?





Agree with you 100% basilio , my thinking is along similar lines at the moment, especially on point 3..
Unfortunately there is not much we as shareholders can do exept protect our capital, so the only thing that I can suggest if there is any doubt, is to set a stop loss, at least you'll be able to sleep at night.....


----------



## Jonathan111

I wouldnt be able to sleep at night if i wasnt holding and the stock went into trading halt due to a big coal sale.

I sold out on QGC and took 70K with a 30K gain so i could put a deposit on a house in Blacktown and missed out on being a millionaire as the shares kept rising til it got taken over.. :blbl: Ive had plenty of similar experience too many to count...:evilburn: 

I will hold LNC to see if they make it to producing comercial GTL and hold for the dividends. Hopefully they reach this stage and never get taken over.. :aliena:


:knightrid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkOGM6gHvao


----------



## namrog

Jonathan111 said:


> I wouldnt be able to sleep at night if i wasnt holding and the stock went into trading halt due to a big coal sale.
> 
> I sold out on QGC and took 70K with a 30K gain so i could put a deposit on a house in Blacktown and missed out on being a millionaire as the shares kept rising til it got taken over.. :blbl: Ive had plenty of similar experience too many to count...:evilburn:
> 
> I will hold LNC to see if they make it to producing comercial GTL and hold for the dividends. Hopefully they reach this stage and never get taken over.. :aliena:
> 
> 
> :knightrid:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkOGM6gHvao




Jonathon , if past performance is anything to go by, you will know in advance if a sale is pending, unless the leaks have been patched.
And just because a person gets stopped out doesn't mean they can't re enter, but I do know what you mean, having been in the QGC position my self, lucky for me , I got that one right , but there have been many others similar to your experience, but hey you have a house, can't have it both ways, and the hindsight thing, if only we knew these things in advance..

Waiting for LNC to pay a divie ? , you would have to be looking 10 years ahead, that's  a long time, hope it pays off for you...


----------



## basilio

Came across some interesting observations in the big $60Billion  Clive Palmer coal sale to China.

It was announced with big fanfare a week or so ago but now seems to have some issues with whether the Chinese are actually onboard. (_Sounds like Linc earlier claims doesn't it ?)_

An article in todays Age questions how realistic  is the idea of building a 490 klm private rail link and the profitbility of the whole deal.  But there was also  a note on the cost of the thermal coal resources  Palmer is selling.



> Most of Palmer's estimated 7 billion tonnes of coal were acquired in last year's $140 million takeover of Waratah Coal. The magnate plans to spend a further $7.5 billion building a mine capable of exporting 40 million tonnes of coal a year.




Not a lot of money for 7 billion tons of coal is it ?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/doubts-over-palmers-megamine-proposal-20100212-nxno.html


----------



## Smurf1976

basilio said:


> ]1) *Lincs main game is turning coal into oil.* That will take a lot of cash and at least 2-3 years. In that context getting cashed up ASAP would enable the main plan to get going promptly and properly.. After all it is clear that  the realities of peak oil will hit within 2-3 years.  That won't be a good time to look for cash. It will be a good time to sell diesel.



Suffice to say that the only reason I hold this stock is in expectation of a collision between oil production and consumption at some point in the next few years. 

How it will play out I really don't know, but a company that can turn stranded or inaccessible coal into diesel must surely have value in a world short on oil. Whether that value is realised by the company going into production or being taken over by an established major oil company remains to be seen.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The chart for LNC is trading in quite a nice little range and there has been higher than normal trading over the last few months.
> 
> I enclose a weekly chart with harmonic simple moving averages 5,15,30, beloved of Dawn Bolton Smith, one of Australia's foremost chartists.
> 
> gg




Its still meandering about in a trading range between $1.35 and $1.80.

An interesting weekly chart. Very interesting.

gg


----------



## luckypaul

Good news on the Thermal coal price front, although I understand that only a portion of coal resource for sale is actually thermal.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60

This shows the price increasing so that the USD 160.71 per metric tonne that it was priced at in Sep 08 when Xinwen made their AUD 1.5 billion offer is now back to USD 103.92 (Jan 2010) after hitting a low of USD 65.35 in March 2009. Of course Linc's coal resource has been significantly increased since that time and we are due a final update very soon (maybe in the next couple of weeks). 

Coal price is increasing by the month so in theory the longer the wait (and it has been the longest wait in the history of waiting ) the better value the resource. 

Personally I think this stock is well undervalued at present which is good for those investors that have had the patience to hang on in there.


----------



## Jonathan111

Hi luckypaul,

Hopefully thats a positive for the bargaining/negotiating thats going on.

There are rumors going around on other threads about a sale of Teresa in Feb.. However it could be all hogwash.. 

After reading the AER interview, it seems as though the expectations are lower now, $1.5b for all 3 assets, even with the upgrades.

Regards,
Jonathan


*Alpha fuel cell ready and configured for LNC*


AFC Energy reaches first milestone in Coal Gasification Agreement

Alpha unit ready for shipping, stage payment due, additional partners secured



AFC Energy (AIM: AFC), the developer of low cost alkaline fuel cells that generate clean electricity from hydrogen feedstocks, is delighted to announce that, further to its initial announcement on 8th December 2009, it has reached the first milestone under its agreement with Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC, Market Cap: cA$717m) and with B9 Coal Limited.



Linc Energy Limited ('Linc' or 'the Partner') is Australia's leader in clean coal technology, and intends to integrate the AFC fuel cell system for use in its global Underground Coal Gasification ("UCG") projects.


The combination of cheap and easy-to-produce synthetic hydrogen from UCG will make an ideal feed source for AFC Energy's fuel cell systems. Linc Energy will utilise a simple membrane gas separation process on the UCG gases to ensure a satisfactory rich hydrogen mix is available for feed-in to the fuel cell system.

In the two months since signing the agreement, AFC Energy has already configured and assembled an Alpha fuel cell system which is now ready for shipping to the first demonstration site, an operating UCG plant in Chinchilla, Australia. As such, the first payment is now due from Linc to AFC Energy.



Upon commissioning and successful trials of the Alpha unit, it is intended to install multiple modules at Chinchilla to form a larger c.50 kW AFC fuel cell system. All parties anticipate multiple installations of AFC Energy's 50kW system for full scale commercialisation.





Key terms of the agreement with Linc Energy are as follows: 

AFC Energy has granted to Linc Energy worldwide exclusive rights to utilise and operate AFC Fuel Cells in conjunction with any UCG application for a period of 24 months

Linc Energy will purchase the first Alpha fuel cell system for 200,000, payable in instalments, with delivery anticipated within the next five months

Linc Energy will have the option for 24 months to extend the exclusivity period in perpetuity. To exercise this option Linc must invest 2.3 million in AFC Energy at a price determined in reference to the market price at the time of exercise

For Linc Energy-owned sites, Linc Energy will pay to AFC Energy an upfront payment calculated on the cost of delivery of fuel cell systems, and a royalty based on profits generated from the use of AFC Energy fuel cells

For Linc Energy-owned sites Linc Energy will pay to B9 Coal Limited, as introducer and broker to the transaction, a royalty equal to two percent of the net profits generated from the use of AFC Energy fuel cells

The operational system will permit the optimal usage of coal with minimal environmental damage. The project capital expenditure for power stations using AFC Energy's low cost fuel cell system is forecast to be less than that of conventional coal/IGCC power stations.



Ian Balchin, CEO of AFC said: "The Underground Coal Gasification opportunity securedthrough B9 Coal with Linc Energy is by far the largest potential market identified yet for AFC's low cost fuel cell technology. It is operational practically anywhere in the world where there are deep coal deposits and can create a 'Holy Grail' for future coal utilisation, with low-cost, highly efficient conversion of coal into power. When combined with Carbon Capture and Storage, this combination of AFC and Linc's innovative technologies can turn the dirtiest fossil fuel into the cleanest.



"We are very excited about working with Linc Energy and locking into the dynamism that has made them one of the fastest growing companies in Australia over the past few years. In parallel with our chlor-alkali opportunity, this programme enables AFC to demonstrate the increasingly wide application potential of its low-cost fuel cell technology". 


Mr Peter Bond, CEO of Linc Energy said: "It makes infinite sense to marry the cleanest power generation technology with the cleanest gasification technology. The picture of success is that you have a UCG field producing cheap and efficient UCG gas, subsequently this UCG gas is piped above ground a short distance upon the same gas field, adjacent to the fuel cell installation. There the gas is cleaned and put through a membrane to enhance the hydrogen percentage that is fed into a smart and compact Fuel Cell power-generation facility that produces virtually no CO2 emissions. In fact the by-product that this power generation plant does produce is in high demand, and that is clean distilled water. The green power produced will then be fed into the local transmission grid. The future of this concept is simply staggering. It could easily be the ultimate answer for clean coal power many of us are looking for, and it's only one to two years away from commercial reality."
http://beta.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201002220700294483H


----------



## basilio

Good strong news Johnathon. I think however that the first AFC fuel cell will be a 3.5 kw unit. The 50 kw units are still a way off. But it does sound like a quality , game changing technology. It will be interesting to see how the traditional coal fired stations respond to  any success by Linc and AFC.

One point to remember.  The current coal fired stations are running and are paid for. They represent a notional value of multiple billions of dollars and are the cash cows of very powerful companies.

New fuel cell based powerplants still have to be paid for (even if they seem to be cheaper than coal fired units. They can't of course be cheaper than units already in operation..) It will take an enormous amount of political courage to effectively outlaw current coal fired stations in favour of new systems just because they are environmentally friendly and cost competitive.


----------



## luckypaul

Hi Jonathon111



> After reading the AER interview, it seems as though the expectations are lower now, $1.5b for all 3 assets, even with the upgrades.




I read that too but I'm sorry, I don't believe it, for the following reason. 

The sale announced on 5th Sep 2008 http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-94.pdf  was preceeded a few months earlier by a Jorc upgrade for Emerald/Teresa to 470 million tonnes (which was expected to be increased to 650 million tonnes) http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-87.pdf. 

The Merriman Curhan Ford's analysis dated 17/07/09 said Emerald was 852 MT and Pentland 266MT. Here is that link http://www.mcfco.com/extend_Research...7-17-09).pdf

Also do not forget we will soon get updates on Galilee that could be significant (maybe to 10 billion) but current JORC is 7.8 BILLION tonnes. 

That is a LOT more coal than was sold for AUD 1.5 billion in Sep 2008 and  since then thermal coal prices are only down 35% (see my post above) from Sep 08 whilst the Emerald/Teresa inferred resource is up 80% (from 470 to 852). 

AUD 1.5 billion for Emerald alone maybe! 

For Pentland and the MASSIVE Galilee too...I'd want lots, lots more. Maybe  AUD 4-6 billion??? I think that is part of the reason for slow progress, i.e. too few companies around that can swallow that size of investment. We shall see but I think my logic above makes sense. Feel free to comment even if it is a slapdown for being ever hopeful.  Note: I am a long time holder so definitely positively biased  :


----------



## rileyi

Luckypaul, I think you are too optimistic with your figures. The original $1.5bil for the first two projects was because the Chinese approached LNC and asked them what they wanted. PB threw a large figure at them, and they initially responded positively.
The coy is more realistically thinking $2bil for all three now.
At current shares issued, that is still over $4 per share.
Better to be surprised by the result, rather than expecting too much and ending up disappointed.


----------



## Mickel

rileyi said:


> Luckypaul, I think you are too optimistic with your figures. The original $1.5bil for the first two projects was because the Chinese approached LNC and asked them what they wanted. PB threw a large figure at them, and they initially responded positively.
> The coy is more realistically thinking $2bil for all three now.
> At current shares issued, that is still over $4 per share.
> Better to be surprised by the result, rather than expecting too much and ending up disappointed.




Hi Riley

While I agree with your last statement in general, I'm more inclined to agree with Luckypaul.

I refer to my post of 19/11/09 (# 1067) where I updated the Merriman Curhan Ford's analysis dated 17/7/09 to reflect the changed JORC tonnages and exchange rates. Their analysis was based on the price of coal in July 09, so it's reasonable to say the prices are now conservative.

My estimated fair value at that time for the 3 tenements was $4174M. In subsequent conversation with senior LNC management following the AGM on 26/11/09, I gained the impression that this estimate ($4174M) was not unreasonable. 

With possible increase to JORC total for Galilee and PB's recent statement that the mine plan for Teresa is even better than he hoped for, I can't see how their thinking has changed.

I'd be interested to know on what basis you make the statement that the Coy is thinking $2B for all 3 tenements.

I am a long term investor in LNC.


----------



## Mickel

I agree with other members  that both Coal Face and Smurf have contributed some very interesting and informative posts.

As the initial Hydrogen fuel cell to use Syngas appears to be headed to Chinchilla, no doubt there will be further discussion on power generation in S E Qld.

One comment was made on the water crisis in SE Qld and a reference given that stated Brisbane's 3 major dams had only 28% capacity. This reference was dated July 06, and while the dams capacity fell further to just under 17%, thankfully that situation is long past.

Currently the dams have over 73% capacity. Furthermore, Swanbank Power Station which contributed to the decline by drawing over 2b litres pa from the dams, now draws recycled water from the water grid.

So, there is unlikely to be a shutdown (or reduced operation) of any power stations in SE Qld over the next 5 years or so for lack of water.


----------



## Mickel

Smurf1976 said:


> And on top of all that, good old supply and demand both legitimate and through gaming the market. The former is pretty simple - if demand is high and supply is tight and you own a large power station then, even at risk of losing some volume, you can hike prices to ridiculous levels.
> 
> Gaming is a bit different and is basically an exploitation of the technical limits of rival generating companies. You offer a low price, possibly even negative, and force others off-line (generally a financial decision rather than technical) when demand is low and price forecasts for the next few days are also low. Then when that's done, you just wait until demand is near its' daily peak and suddenly revise all your pricing to ridiculous levels knowing that rivals can't possibly ramp up production quickly. Instant windfall...
> 
> There's a lot of differnt approaches to this gaming of the market but a very key one is mainaining the impression of you being a danger to rivals, someone who can send the price wherever they like but in a manner that nobody can predict. Beyond that, there's lots of actual strategies going on. Selling forward large volumes during high price periods, then using your own production to crash the market at those times so as to cover what is effectively a short position, is another one that comes to mind. Lots of games in this industry...




Smurf, I was surprised to learn that this is happening in Australia. I seem to recall that a similar scenario was played out in USA (mainly California I believe) by Enron with disastrous results for business and industry because they couldn't afford the power at certain times. 

Enron itself also collapsed. However I understand that fraud was at least partly responsible for Enron's demise.

Do you see many similarities between Enron in California and large suppliers in Australia ?


----------



## sanj

From what I see, at the rate Linc is burning through cash, they need asset  sales ASAP or another capital raising will be on the cards. The amount of staff they are hiring are not working for a pat on the back. Although todays purchase appears to be minnimal and the so call rewards appear to be great 1mil outflow of cash is substanial when you only have just over 20 mil left. The opening of offices in USA and now Alaska will also contribute decent size outflows of cash. The purchases of these AFC cells is another outflow to consider as well as theier goals of fast tracking SA with a pre-commercial ucg operation. 

I am a big fan of what they have to offer, but they really do need to get thier cash position in a better position sooner than later.


----------



## Mickel

Two new announcements from LNC today. -

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-210.pdf

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-211.pdf

On the Coal Sale update-
"The sale of coal tenements at Emerald, Pentland and Galilee is progressing albeit more slowly than hoped. The Company continues to pursue sale outcomes that reflect full and fair value for these high quality assets on behalf of its shareholders. Discussions and negotiations are continuing with a number of overseas interests and Australian based mining houses. The interested parties are in some cases negotiating to buy all three assets and in other cases individual assets.
Some of these negotiations are at a very advanced stage. A written offer for the purchase of all three coal assets has been received from one party and whilst negotiations with that party are now at a very advanced stage, the Company is continuing to progress all potential avenues until a sale(s) is realised. *The Linc Energy board has insisted that a sizable deposit **accompany any signed sale agreement*. Accordingly, a considerable amount of time has been spent working through these financial details from the buyers side to ensure that ultimately the Company achieves a smooth and successful transaction that serves all parties."

My view of a sizable deposit would be a minimum A$200M.

It goes on to state that MineCraft Consulting gave a 3rd party conservative valuation of Teresa at AUD $529M and LNC value Galilee at over AUD $1B.

So LNC could be indicating that the total conservative value of the 3 assets may be around A$2B. I'm still of the opinion that they are looking for a lot more than that.



The other announcement covers finalization of the US purchase of the coal tenements.

The announcements had a positive impact on the S/P, rising from $1.47 to peak at $1.67, before closing up 8c at $1.56 on volume of 8.9M shares


----------



## luckypaul

I think the fact that we have had a "Coal Sale Update" is great news! 

Linc have been very quiet up until now for fear of "crying wolf" (again) and announcing before things were set in stone. I am guessing that this announcement means that they COULD now finalise things based on the offer they have on paper (value undisclosed). Otherwise, why announce anything at all at this point? To me that implies that the offer on paper is at least within their expected ballpark.

If they do have a reasonable offer already on the table they are now in an extremely strong position, what with waiting for final resource upgrades for Galilee and potentially better offers from other parties.

The downside is that this could still take time from here especially if an overseas offer needs FIRB to do its stuff again (unless the last 'OK' still stands - which I doubt since the scope has changed so much). I am still confident investors will be positively surprised by the amount and the SP will experience the long awaited rise but more importantly Linc will be off the starting blocks once more but this time all 'cashed up' and ready to rock. I am a long term holder and a little excited about it all .


----------



## basilio

Promising signs from Linc.  I'd like to get excited (and I am) but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since Sept 2008 and $5 SP.

And Linc isn't alone in this venture. Interesting story about a company calling itself Clean Coal in England looking at UCG.  And guess what ? The chief executive is, wait for it, * Catherine Bond.* No idea if there is any connection between her and Peter Bond but it would be fun to find out. 
The Australian experience also gets a plug.

One clear point is that there is squillions of tons of underground coal available for this process. And that the the issues of water contamination, out of control underground fires and carbon dioxide capture are still there.



> *Could burning coal underground take Clean Coal Ltd in too deep?*
> 
> The coal 'gasification' stakes are high – not least because the company behind the plan is called Clean Coal Ltd
> 
> 
> ...Clean Coal is a small start-up company of engineers, geologists and venture capitalists, that has big plans for selling its expertise round the world. Last week, it unveiled plans to burn coal within 500m off the shore of the north Norfolk area of outstanding natural beauty.
> 
> But its* chief executive, Catherine Bond,* told the Guardian that the first project is likely to be in Swansea Bay "because we know the geology best". The other three sites are off Grimsby, Sunderland, and under the Solway Firth in Scotland.
> 
> Coal "gasification" is an old idea. Until half a century ago, Britain ran on "coal gas" manufactured at local gas works. What is new is cutting out the coal mining stage and doing the gasification underground.
> 
> In principle it is simple. You sink a borehole to the coal seam and insert a firelighter and oxygen to keep the fire going. The fire generates carbon dioxide, methane and hydrogen. You sink another borehole to extract the gases. There are technical issues.* But trials on coalfields in Queensland, Australia suggest the technology may be ready to go.*
> 
> And Bond says she has assembled "the top people in the northern hemisphere. *Only the Queensland people are ahead of us. They are proving the technology."*




http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/04/coal-gasification-ccs

__________________

There is an excellent indepth analysis of UCG which draws on LINCs experience. One of the big issues identified was trapping CO2 effectively.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17423454.700-fire-down-below.html?full=true


----------



## Mickel

luckypaul said:


> The downside is that this could still take time from here especially if an overseas offer needs FIRB to do its stuff again (unless the last 'OK' still stands - which I doubt since the scope has changed so much).




My view on any FIRB approval is that it will be granted as-

1. The sale will enable LNC to start the plant construction and subsequent production of their GTL process.

2.The GTL production will allow Australia to replace oil imports with the GTL products and therefore be a huge financial benefit to the country as PB has  said recently- http://www.lincenergy.com.au/video.php .


----------



## basilio

I am so surprised at the weakness in Linc shares today. The announcement was not set in stone but I thought that it offered sufficient information and activity to hold a bit more confidence  in the marketplace.

On the face of it Linc has $2 billion plus in coal reserves that are  steadily expanding in volume * and* appreciating in value.  There are multiple buyers with at least one making a significant written offer. 

And if/when the sale happens and the funds come through Linc has a well developed technology to turn coal into diesel at a time when Australia's oil supplies are falling rapidly.

Where is the downside?  Surely even in a fire sale Linc's  assets would be worth double the current price. Any thoughts?


----------



## Nero64

basilio said:


> I am so surprised at the weakness in Linc shares today. The announcement was not set in stone but I thought that it offered sufficient information and activity to hold a bit more confidence  in the marketplace.
> 
> On the face of it Linc has $2 billion plus in coal reserves that are  steadily expanding in volume * and* appreciating in value.  There are multiple buyers with at least one making a significant written offer.
> 
> And if/when the sale happens and the funds come through Linc has a well developed technology to turn coal into diesel at a time when Australia's oil supplies are falling rapidly.
> 
> Where is the downside?  Surely even in a fire sale Linc's  assets would be worth double the current price. Any thoughts?




If you read the announcement it says talks are in a very advanced stage. Does this ring any bells. Read the announcments for the past 12months and you will see similar statements made. 

What am I getting at. The coal sale is not happening any time soon. 

I would wait till it slips under $1.40 again. They have enough cash for now. No hurry.


----------



## calais

Hi everyone, would like to know how much cash Linc has at present.
Their cash burn rate seems high. 

Looking at their past quarterly reports, they had 39 million end of Sept.

End of Dec. they had 24 million. 

End of March ?  Guessing 8-10 million.

At this rate they would need another capital raising in April, provided no sale in the meantime.

Apart from quarterly reports and presentations is there any other way of finding out the companys present cash position?


----------



## mexican

basilio said:


> I am so surprised at the weakness in Linc shares today. The announcement was not set in stone but I thought that it offered sufficient information and activity to hold a bit more confidence  in the marketplace.
> 
> On the face of it Linc has $2 billion plus in coal reserves that are  steadily expanding in volume * and* appreciating in value.  There are multiple buyers with at least one making a significant written offer.
> 
> And if/when the sale happens and the funds come through Linc has a well developed technology to turn coal into diesel at a time when Australia's oil supplies are falling rapidly.
> 
> Where is the downside?  Surely even in a fire sale Linc's  assets would be worth double the current price. Any thoughts?




I say get the sale over with $1 bill+ and get the show on the road.
Pretty much we all know it might be worth more, but it is holding back Linc with getting on with the job.
If they do sell for less than they wanted, it might be a good idea to keep a interest in the tenements 10%-15%. Make a bit of money once they are in production and then sell their interset after a couple of years. More $$$.
Just my own opinion but I think 8 weeks maximum until the deal is done.
Alot of good news has been announced of late but no reply from the SP and I think PB realises this now. 
With the money Linc will be making in next 5 years, who cares about getting top dollar now for the coal tenements. Bring on the diesel, jet fuel, oil, gas, hydrocells, distilled water, kero, so on $$ and  so on $$.


----------



## Mickel

An interesting broadcast of a recent Limelight Series presentation (I think it was in Adelaide on Fri 5 March) by Justyn Peters with segments by Matthew Buchanan, Nick Cox and Darryl Rattai.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64398/linc-energy-limelight-series-presentation?popup=true&wl=76

Justyn, in his introductory and summary comments, had many informative tidbits-

1. Coal sale- they could have sold it some time ago for a lot less but are confident of getting a good price soon. 
2. While important, the coal sale is not their only funding option to production.
3. Their staff is about to double (this year).
4. Power demand in Sth Aust will increase with commercial development at Olympic Dam and other projects.
5. Technical advancement with both the Syngas (UCG Generator 4)and the GTL process will lead to much higher gas production and therefore lower costs. Not fully realised by the investment community.
6. They believe (also confirmed by Nth American visitors to site) that they are so far ahead of UCG competitors as to have no competitors. Two other Qld UCG companies wanted to buy some of their Sth Aust leases.
7. Coal Seam Gas companies with overlapping leases are incompatable with UCG as CSG need to extract water from coal while UCG need the water in the coal.

The whole broadcast runs for over an hour.


----------



## Mickel

Nero64 said:


> If you read the announcement it says talks are in a very advanced stage. Does this ring any bells. Read the announcments for the past 12months and you will see similar statements made.
> 
> What am I getting at. The coal sale is not happening any time soon.
> 
> I would wait till it slips under $1.40 again. They have enough cash for now. No hurry.




My view is that LNC cash on hand won't last past Jun 10 from various statements made recently. So there is some urgency.

On the other hand, the "Tiger" celebration is now over and business can proceed without delay.

I think, because of some of those announcements over the last 12 months to which you refer, Nero, that LNC is reluctant to make any announcement of a more positive nature, until they have money in the bank.

Also, I see on LNC's website "Events Calendar" that they will be presenting at a forum in Beijing from 13-16 April.


----------



## Jonathan111

I suspect that buyers were waiting for LNC to run out of cash at around June-July before putting their bid in for the coal tenaments, and that the recent offer may have been at the lower end of the ball park figure, with the bidder hoping that LNC would take the bait before any other interested parties got in with their bids projected for around June-July, these other parties may have been projecting to get their deposits and approvals ready for June. Now any other organisation thats seriously interested in the coal should come to the table with renewed motivation to ensure they dont miss out. Will be interesting and exiciting if this happens and even better if its more than two interested parites.


----------



## noirua

Jonathan111 said:


> I suspect that buyers were waiting for LNC to run out of cash at around June-July before putting their bid in for the coal tenaments, and that the recent offer may have been at the lower end of the ball park figure, with the bidder hoping that LNC would take the bait before any other interested parties got in with their bids projected for around June-July, these other parties may have been projecting to get their deposits and approvals ready for June. Now any other organisation thats seriously interested in the coal should come to the table with renewed motivation to ensure they dont miss out. Will be interesting and exiciting if this happens and even better if its more than two interested parites.




An interesting position for Linc Energy who are trying to sell coal mines at a time when the thermal coal price is around US$93 a tonnes and BHP have secured US$200 for hard coking coal. Not forgetting, of course, that LNCs mines are mainly thermal coal with a prospective 2.5mtpa of semi-soft coking coal from the Theresa (emerald) Resource mine.

The easiest mine to sell will be the Theresa mine with an independant middle valuation of A$529 million and they should get close to this price.
The Galillee tenement has LNCs personal valuation of about A$1 billion so it remains very uncertain what an independent valuation might be. Seems a very high figure with the uncertainty over the thermal coal price.
The Pentland tenement, as stated by LNC, is worth much less than the other projects. In fact looks as if it will be thrown in as an extra if a bidder goes for all thee mines of around A$1.5 billion.

If Deloitte's valuation of Felix Resources has anything to go by, directors wanted to cash in their chips, then a price around A$1.0 to A$1.2 billion for all three mines and tenements can be expected, imho.

Market cap at A$1.56 is A$784 million but LNC are a quite complex company these days and valuation depends on many estimates or perhaps guesses.

I don't hold any stock but I'm watching very closely.


----------



## Jonathan111

India Coal Mining Investment : India Nation Mining Company, CIL Plans To Complete Coal Mine Acquisition This Year

http://paguntaka.org/2009/10/06/ind...-to-complete-coal-mine-acquisition-this-year/


Coal India Ltd., the nation’s monopoly producer of the fuel, said it expects to complete a mine acquisition in the year ending March 31, and has hired Royal Bank of Canada to carry out due diligence on a deposit in Australia.

The state-owned company is seeking mines in the U.S., Australia, South Africa and Indonesia and as many as 52 companies want to be its partners, Chairman Partha S. Bhattacharyya told reporters in New Delhi today.

Coal India said Aug. 27 it may invest as much as $1.5 billion to acquire mines overseas to help overcome a shortage of the fuel as the country plans to almost double its power generation capacity by 2012. The company estimates a shortage of about 228 million tons a year of coal by March 2012.

Bhattacharyya and officials including Sriprakash Jaiswal, India’s junior coal minister, visited Australia in September to assess potential acquisition targets. About 15 companies with coal operations in Australia have signaled that they are interested in possible agreements with an Indian partner, Partha Sen, a business development manager for the Australian Trade Commission, said in Sydney Sept. 3.

Coal India secured two blocks in Mozambique that may hold a combined 1 billion metric tons of thermal coal, along with some coking coal, Bhattacharyya had said in a June 4 interview.

India’s coal demand is estimated to reach 731 million tons a year by March 2012, J. Goel, chief general manager of sales and marketing at Coal India, said Feb. 24. The company wants local mining approvals sped up to boost domestic output.

Companies including NTPC Ltd., Reliance Power Ltd. and Tata Power Co. plan to boost generation to meet demand in the world’s second fastest-growing major economy.


----------



## Jonathan111

Sudden movement..
I wonder who is buying?
Dont watch too long noirua...

Last Trade: *1.710 *AUD 
*Change:  0.145 (9.27%) *
Prev Close: 1.565 
Open: 1.595 
Bid: 1.700 
Ask: 1.715 
Day's Range: 1.590 - 1.740 
52wk Range: 1.310 - 2.680 
Volume: 6,398,293 
Avg Vol (3m): 1,331,360


----------



## Kent1810

Yep,
Look good for today price and volume. Selling Coal assets news must be leaking. Time to get on board I think.


----------



## awg

noirua said:


> If Deloitte's valuation of Felix Resources has anything to go by, directors wanted to cash in their chips, then a price around A$1.0 to A$1.2 billion for all three mines and tenements can be expected, imho.
> 
> Market cap at A$1.56 is A$784 million but LNC are a quite complex company these days and valuation depends on many estimates or perhaps guesses.
> 
> I don't hold any stock but I'm watching very closely.




The current market price values Lincs GTL and other technologies at less than zero.

Some contend they have potentially worlds best.

I am sure an astute investor such as yrself is familiar?


----------



## Jonathan111

Looks like he had a big day, late night presentation in New York.. 

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64901/partner/redfm

Thinking they might get 1.7b - 2b    or   1b -1.5b + royalties

1b-1.2b Galilee
530m-600m Emerald
150m Pentland

Sounds like he was going to say "get rid" of the assets, he must be getting fed up of this sale or just a late night for PB.. 

$28-30 a barrell, produced in six minutes, 500meters of processing pipes
$1/GJ

PB has roughly about 10 drill crews working at one time to increase reserves

Any chance of upgrading the plant to 60000 barrells per day?


----------



## profitmann

Will take 5 years to get a 5,000 bbl GTL Plant up and running. 60,000 bbl....you are kidding...will never happen!!!. Try $40-$45 per barrel cost price today so guess what....the price in 2015 will be what???....and the transportation costs.....and the off take agreements - who?.....BP yes...who else???.....do the maths!!!


----------



## Jonathan111

Yes i read about Shell's Pearl project and the 19 billion blowout.

But their plant is huge compared


----------



## Smurf1976

It's not just production costs, but what price the liquid fuels sell for.

A simple question for all here on ASF. Who right now has an oil-fired (not oil filled but electrically heated) heater in the lounge room? They were _very_ common 30 years ago. You know, the old Vulcan heater with a big tank on the wall outside filled with "heating oil".

And who is right now using electricity from a grid substantially reliant on oil-fired generation? Not much of that around these days, it's coal, nuclear, hydro, gas these days plus a bit of wind depending on your location.

My point is simply that underlying demand for transport, petrochemicals etc continues to rise with population, industrialisation of China etc whilst the easy demand destruction, like switching to other fuels for heating houses and generating power, is largely already done.

Anyone here work in a factory that still has an oil-fired boiler in use? Wouldn't have been hard to find someone working in such a place 20 or 30 years ago. Now gas is the usual fuel for such things, sometimes coal.

Or even someone working in an office building heated by oil? That too was common at one point - look carefully around city streets and you can still spot the tank filling points in many instances. In 2010 it's usually gas or electricity that provides the heat, not diesel or fuel oil.

So, rising demand, flat production from conventional sources, and the easy demand shifting to alternatives has already been done. That sounds like higher prices ahead to me...


----------



## ColB

Just a quick reply Smurf as heading out for dinner but I believe LNC's Liquid fuel is a high quality Diesel that I would have thought will be in demand for years to come not neccessarily as a heating fuel but mainly transport.  

Another feature of their fuel is its intended use in the aviation industry [jetfuel].  

I don't think they'll have planes running on gas in the near future but I could be wrong.

Once LNC get the coal sale through you would think they will have a GTL plant up and running within 2-3 years not 5 as has just been suggested.

Enjoy your usual informative posts Smurf.

Have a good one


----------



## namrog

Jonathan111 said:


> Looks like he had a big day, late night presentation in New York..
> 
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/64901/partner/redfm
> 
> Thinking they might get 1.7b - 2b    or   1b -1.5b + royalties
> 
> ?




Think you're right about the big day Jonathon,, !!


What an unprofessional presentation from Peter Bond, must have been on the juice all day, so much huffing, puffing, uming, awing, unsure of figures etc....

Also looks to me like there is little more than 1 billion on offer for all the coal sale assets, and I feel he is probably going to take it, though all said and done , that wouldn't be such a bad thing....? 

Gotta say as a shareholder, not very impressed with the presentation....

My Oppinion only though, others may have seen it differently...


----------



## calais

Spot on namrog, I think he had a few too many waiting for his turn.

Scratching his head, walking away from the microphone and I think one of his 
comments ( 11.40 of presentation ) did he say " F and sense to put the two together".

I did have a laugh though and enjoyed the presentation.

The sale of the coal tenements seems to be between 1.4 to 1.7 billion.

Anyone willing to guess the capital cost of the Orrorroo, maybe 300-500 million. ( including power sration ).


----------



## Smurf1976

ColB said:


> Just a quick reply Smurf as heading out for dinner but I believe LNC's Liquid fuel is a high quality Diesel that I would have thought will be in demand for years to come not neccessarily as a heating fuel but mainly transport.
> 
> Another feature of their fuel is its intended use in the aviation industry [jetfuel].



I should have explained that post a bit better.

Go back to 1973 before the first oil crisis. 50% of developed world energy was from oil, a figure that had been rapidly rising since the late 1950's when vast amounts of cheap Middle East (and elsewhere) oil became available. 

It took less than a decade for that cheap oil to almost totally replace coal apart from steel production and power generation (though many newer plants were being built to use oil and quite a lot of coal-fired plants did get converted to oil). 

By 1973, either you had hydro, locally produced gas at very low prices, were running an old plant (factory, power station, whatever) or you were using oil. Oil as a fuel was everywhere - even in the home with the very popular (at the time) oil burning heaters widely used where gas wasn't available (and sometimes even where it was available). Look around Tasmania, where those heaters were so popular as to become a major energy user in their own right, and a lot of houses still have the old tank on the wall and flue through the roof as evidence of the heaters that were there 30 years ago (the tanks being too heavy to easily remove and often quite high up on the wall).

Then it all changed as oil became expensive. Here in Tas there were 60% year on year drops in heating oil consumption at one point - that's a truly massive shift. Meanwhile WA gained international attention for the speed at which they shifted power generation from oil to coal. Then Victoria simply closed their oil-fired power plants completely, never to be restarted. 

And right around the world, a nuclear and coal-fired power construction frenzy emerged, hence much of the electricity today comes from plants that were commissioned in the 1980's in response to 70's oil price shocks. The expansion of Muja (coal-fired power plant, WA) was a direct response to soaring oil prices, as was the controversial attempt at damming the Franklin River to expand hydro-electricity in Tasmania. Meanwhile in Darwin they simply replaced their entire power generation with gas (an option which Tasmania, and believe it or not WA, didn't have available at the time).

In short, it was technically very simple to convert from oil power / heating / boilers to coal and natural gas plus a bit of nuclear and a few hydro-electric dams (globally). Apart from a few flare ups over environmental issues, mostly relating to hydro or nuclear, it wasn't overly difficult. Just run factory boilers on coal / gas, heat buildings with gas and shift remaining non-transport oil use to electricity, to be provided by the new coal, nuclear etc plants. All fairly simple.

But that's all done now. Apart from transport, which can not easily be converted to another fuel, we don't actually use that much oil these days in terms of the range of applications for it. The oil-fired heaters, power stations, boilers etc are largely gone (almost completely gone in Australia) which leaves transport as the major use of the 85 million barrels per day of oil that the world consumes.

So what happens now when prices rise? There's no quick fix. It's not simple to run cars, trucks and buses on anything but oil. We're basically stuck with it, a very different scenario to the 1970's. Hence as demand rises from China etc and production in due course peaks, higher prices seem inevitable - we just don't have an "easy" way out this time.

All of that ought to lead to higher liquid fuels prices ahead and hence opportunities for companies such as LNC. The only real risk that I can see is if the Saudi's etc really do have as much oil as they say and are willing to pump flat out to keep prices down (possible but a great many people seriously doubt it) or the global economy falls in a hole and stays there. Other than that, we're stuck with liquid fuels and, in my opinion, increasing prices in the years ahead - there's just no easy way out now other than to find alternative ways (such as what LNC are doing) to produce such fuels. We can't build a coal-fired aeroplane or run trucks on nuclear power...


----------



## bloubul

Smurf1976 said:


> The only real risk that I can see is if the Saudi's etc really do have as much oil as they say and are willing to pump flat out to keep prices down (possible but a great many people seriously doubt it) or the global economy falls in a hole and stays there. Other than that, we're stuck with liquid fuels and, in my opinion, increasing prices in the years ahead - there's just no easy way out now other than to find alternative ways (such as what LNC are doing) to produce such fuels. We can't build a coal-fired aeroplane or run trucks on nuclear power...




Smurf.. Interesting article in SMH this morning http://www.smh.com.au/world/oil-reserves-exaggerated-by-one-third-20100323-qtue.html quoting that Oil Reserves could be overstated by 1/3. If these figures are correct and PB gets the sale through asap and start building commercial GTL plants, Liquid Gold  could be flowing just as demand outstrips supply in 4-5 years.


----------



## Mickel

LNC have secured additional funding of up to A$81.5 M through a US Fund Manager.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100330/pdf/31pjvk0ll2m59b.pdf

This will ease the pressure on LNC to finalise the Coal Sale within 4-6 weeks, as they run down their working capital.

My view is that P Bond is unwilling to sell the 3 coal assets at bargain basement prices. This was stated at the Limelight presentation in Brisbane on Fri 26/3 by Craig Ricato. I think they may wait until a new JORC statement on Galilee is made which will hopefully increase the value of Galilee. The JORC statement was due in April but with recent wet weather, it is more likely in May or early June.


----------



## qq830821

Mickel said:


> LNC have secured additional funding of up to A$81.5 M through a US Fund Manager.
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100330/pdf/31pjvk0ll2m59b.pdf
> 
> This will ease the pressure on LNC to finalise the Coal Sale within 4-6 weeks, as they run down their working capital.
> 
> My view is that P Bond is unwilling to sell the 3 coal assets at bargain basement prices. This was stated at the Limelight presentation in Brisbane on Fri 26/3 by Craig Ricato. I think they may wait until a new JORC statement on Galilee is made which will hopefully increase the value of Galilee. The JORC statement was due in April but with recent wet weather, it is more likely in May or early June.




Mickel,
i too attended the presentation. However, i didnt feel confident at all after the presentation. there is no news on g4 there is no news on their technology developlment. i also asked the CFO after the meeting and he doesnt know anything about the cost of producing liquid.


----------



## Mickel

qq830821 said:


> Mickel,
> i too attended the presentation. However, i didnt feel confident at all after the presentation. there is no news on g4 there is no news on their technology developlment. i also asked the CFO after the meeting and he doesnt know anything about the cost of producing liquid.




Regarding the cost of producing liquids, some idea is given by the BBY analyst report of 14/10/08- http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-18.pdf -
where they stated (estimated) $900 million construction cost, $93m opex and $545m EBITDA in 3rd year of production for a 20,000 bpd plant, with a barrel of oil (boo) selling price of AUD $93.75

While this estimation is 18 months old, there have been some improvements in their research and big improvements in Gas Generator 4 . Of course LINC are initially planning to build a power station, incorporating cutting edge technology, and generate an early income stream in Sth Aust.

Also, you may recall that Kobus Treblanche, in answer to a question, stated that G4 would produce 1.66 boo from 1 ton of coal + a further energy equivalent of .31 boo. This is a huge increase from the originally stated 1 boo from 1 ton of coal.

From the latest half year report-

*Gas To Liquids (GTL)*
The GTL demonstration plant has undergone a complex programme of multiple modifications, largely to the Fisher-Tropsch
area, including some significant modifications to the catalyst reduction system. These modifications were completed on
schedule and within budget and are designed to replicate laboratory reduction conditions, which have confirmed that they
would deliver further enhancement to gas conversion in the demonstration plant.

*South Australia*
On 6 November 2009, Linc Energy announced plans to establish its first UCG to GTL commercial operation in Orroroo,
South Australia. The announcement was supported by the discovery of a significant 1.0 to 1.3 billion tonne coal exploration
target (in accordance with the JORC code). An initial area of land has been purchased and management estimates that the
size of the deposit indicates it may be sufficient to support 500MW of high efficiency power generation, in addition to 20,000
barrels per day of clean, synthetic fuels production with an operational life for the combined UCG and GTL facilities of about
75 years.
*
AFC Energy*
ln December 2009 Linc Energy announced it signed an exclusive agreement with UK-based fuel cell technology company
AFC Energy Plc and its related entity Bg Coal. The agreement provides Linc Energy with worldwide exclusive rights to utilise
and operate AFC fuel cells with its UCG application for a 24 month period, with an option to extend for up to three years. The
first stage of the agreement involves Linc Energy purchasing an Alpha Fuel Cell System for GBP 200,000 for testing at its
Chinchilla Demonstration Facility.


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post, here is some information about AFC Energy/LINC Energy
agreement from the AFC website -

*AFC Energy reaches first milestone in Coal Gasification Agreement*

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

AFC Energy reaches first milestone in Coal Gasification Agreement

Alpha unit ready for shipping, stage payment due, additional partners secured

AFC Energy (AIM: AFC), the developer of low cost alkaline fuel cells that generate clean electricity from hydrogen feedstocks, is delighted to announce that, further to its initial announcement on December 8th 2009, it has reached the first milestone under its agreement with Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC, Market Cap: cA$717m) and with B9 Coal Limited.

Linc Energy Limited (‘Linc’ or ‘the Partner’) is Australia’s leader in clean coal technology, and intends to integrate the AFC fuel cell system for use in its global Underground Coal Gasification (“UCG”) projects.
The combination of cheap and easy-to-produce synthetic hydrogen from UCG will make an ideal feed source for AFC Energy’s fuel cell systems. Linc Energy will utilise a simple membrane gas separation process on the UCG gases to ensure a satisfactory rich hydrogen mix is available for feed-in to the fuel cell system.

In the two months since signing the agreement, AFC Energy has already configured and assembled an Alpha fuel cell system which is now ready for shipping to the first demonstration site, an operating UCG plant in Chinchilla, Australia. As such, the first payment is now due from Linc to AFC Energy.

Upon commissioning and successful trials of the Alpha unit, it is intended to install multiple modules at Chinchilla to form a larger c.50 kW AFC fuel cell system. All parties anticipate multiple installations of AFC Energy’s 50kW system for full scale commercialisation.

Key terms of the agreement with Linc Energy are as follows:

    * AFC Energy has granted to Linc Energy worldwide exclusive rights to utilise and operate AFC Fuel Cells in conjunction with any UCG application for a period of 24 months
    * Linc Energy will purchase the first Alpha fuel cell system for £200,000, payable in instalments, with delivery anticipated within the next five months
    * Linc Energy will have the option for 24 months to extend the exclusivity period in perpetuity. To exercise this option Linc must invest £2.3 million in AFC Energy at a price determined in reference to the market price at the time of exercise
    * For Linc Energy-owned sites, Linc Energy will pay to AFC Energy an upfront payment calculated on the cost of delivery of fuel cell systems, and a royalty based on profits generated from the use of AFC Energy fuel cells
    * For Linc Energy-owned sites Linc Energy will pay to B9 Coal Limited, as introducer and broker to the transaction, a royalty equal to two percent of the net profits generated from the use of AFC Energy fuel cells

The operational system will permit the optimal usage of coal with minimal environmental damage. The project capital expenditure for power stations using AFC Energy’s low cost fuel cell system is forecast to be less than that of conventional coal/IGCC power stations.

Ian Balchin, CEO of AFC said: “The Underground Coal Gasification opportunity securedthrough B9 Coal with Linc Energy is by far the largest potential market identified yet for AFC’s low cost fuel cell technology. It is operational practically anywhere in the world where there are deep coal deposits and can create a ‘Holy Grail’ for future coal utilisation, with low-cost, highly efficient conversion of coal into power. When combined with Carbon Capture and Storage, this combination of AFC and Linc’s innovative technologies can turn the dirtiest fossil fuel into the cleanest.

“We are very excited about working with Linc Energy and locking into the dynamism that has made them one of the fastest growing companies in Australia over the past few years. In parallel with our chlor-alkali opportunity, this programme enables AFC to demonstrate the increasingly wide application potential of its low-cost fuel cell technology”.
Mr Peter Bond, CEO of Linc energy said: “It makes infinite sense to marry the cleanest power generation technology with the cleanest gasification technology. The picture of success is that you have a UCG field producing cheap and efficient UCG gas, subsequently this UCG gas is piped above ground a short distance upon the same gas field, adjacent to the fuel cell installation. There the gas is cleaned and put through a membrane to enhance the hydrogen percentage that is fed into a smart and compact Fuel Cell power-generation facility that produces virtually no CO2 emissions. In fact the by-product that this power generation plant does produce is in high demand, and that is clean distilled water. The green power produced will then be fed into the local transmission grid. The future of this concept is simply staggering. It could easily be the ultimate answer for clean coal power many of us are looking for, and it’s only one to two years away from commercial reality.”

http://www.afcenergy.com/press-rele...rst-milestone-in-coal-gasification-agreement/


----------



## profitmann

Mickel said:


> Further to my last post, here is some information about AFC Energy/LINC Energy
> agreement from the AFC website -
> 
> *AFC Energy reaches first milestone in Coal Gasification Agreement*
> 
> Monday, February 22nd, 2010
> 
> AFC Energy reaches first milestone in Coal Gasification Agreement
> 
> Alpha unit ready for shipping, stage payment due, additional partners secured
> 
> AFC Energy (AIM: AFC), the developer of low cost alkaline fuel cells that generate clean electricity from hydrogen feedstocks, is delighted to announce that, further to its initial announcement on December 8th 2009, it has reached the first milestone under its agreement with Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC, Market Cap: cA$717m) and with B9 Coal Limited.
> 
> Linc Energy Limited (‘Linc’ or ‘the Partner’) is Australia’s leader in clean coal technology, and intends to integrate the AFC fuel cell system for use in its global Underground Coal Gasification (“UCG”) projects.
> The combination of cheap and easy-to-produce synthetic hydrogen from UCG will make an ideal feed source for AFC Energy’s fuel cell systems. Linc Energy will utilise a simple membrane gas separation process on the UCG gases to ensure a satisfactory rich hydrogen mix is available for feed-in to the fuel cell system.
> 
> In the two months since signing the agreement, AFC Energy has already configured and assembled an Alpha fuel cell system which is now ready for shipping to the first demonstration site, an operating UCG plant in Chinchilla, Australia. As such, the first payment is now due from Linc to AFC Energy.
> 
> Upon commissioning and successful trials of the Alpha unit, it is intended to install multiple modules at Chinchilla to form a larger c.50 kW AFC fuel cell system. All parties anticipate multiple installations of AFC Energy’s 50kW system for full scale commercialisation.
> 
> Key terms of the agreement with Linc Energy are as follows:
> 
> * AFC Energy has granted to Linc Energy worldwide exclusive rights to utilise and operate AFC Fuel Cells in conjunction with any UCG application for a period of 24 months
> * Linc Energy will purchase the first Alpha fuel cell system for £200,000, payable in instalments, with delivery anticipated within the next five months
> * Linc Energy will have the option for 24 months to extend the exclusivity period in perpetuity. To exercise this option Linc must invest £2.3 million in AFC Energy at a price determined in reference to the market price at the time of exercise
> * For Linc Energy-owned sites, Linc Energy will pay to AFC Energy an upfront payment calculated on the cost of delivery of fuel cell systems, and a royalty based on profits generated from the use of AFC Energy fuel cells
> * For Linc Energy-owned sites Linc Energy will pay to B9 Coal Limited, as introducer and broker to the transaction, a royalty equal to two percent of the net profits generated from the use of AFC Energy fuel cells
> 
> The operational system will permit the optimal usage of coal with minimal environmental damage. The project capital expenditure for power stations using AFC Energy’s low cost fuel cell system is forecast to be less than that of conventional coal/IGCC power stations.
> 
> Ian Balchin, CEO of AFC said: “The Underground Coal Gasification opportunity securedthrough B9 Coal with Linc Energy is by far the largest potential market identified yet for AFC’s low cost fuel cell technology. It is operational practically anywhere in the world where there are deep coal deposits and can create a ‘Holy Grail’ for future coal utilisation, with low-cost, highly efficient conversion of coal into power. When combined with Carbon Capture and Storage, this combination of AFC and Linc’s innovative technologies can turn the dirtiest fossil fuel into the cleanest.
> 
> “We are very excited about working with Linc Energy and locking into the dynamism that has made them one of the fastest growing companies in Australia over the past few years. In parallel with our chlor-alkali opportunity, this programme enables AFC to demonstrate the increasingly wide application potential of its low-cost fuel cell technology”.
> Mr Peter Bond, CEO of Linc energy said: “It makes infinite sense to marry the cleanest power generation technology with the cleanest gasification technology. The picture of success is that you have a UCG field producing cheap and efficient UCG gas, subsequently this UCG gas is piped above ground a short distance upon the same gas field, adjacent to the fuel cell installation. There the gas is cleaned and put through a membrane to enhance the hydrogen percentage that is fed into a smart and compact Fuel Cell power-generation facility that produces virtually no CO2 emissions. In fact the by-product that this power generation plant does produce is in high demand, and that is clean distilled water. The green power produced will then be fed into the local transmission grid. The future of this concept is simply staggering. It could easily be the ultimate answer for clean coal power many of us are looking for, and it’s only one to two years away from commercial reality.”
> 
> http://www.afcenergy.com/press-rele...rst-milestone-in-coal-gasification-agreement/




What if the Syngas doesn`t hold enough Hydrogen even though it goes through an "enhancing stage" to run the Alpha Fuel Cell?
Anyone costed the "enhancing stage" as yet?


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.coalonline.net/catalogues/coalonline/82189/7180/html/7180.html
Very indepth viewpoint in this academic Article; 129 pages

In early 2000, Linc Energy carried out an UCG trial in a block of coal 140 m deep in the Surat basin in Queensland. The UCG technology used involved vertical wells and hydraulic fracturing and reverse combustion linkages was used, under a licence from Ergo Exergy (for the εUCG technology). Syngas was produced for just over two years from a seam that was more than 8 m thick. More than 35,000 t of coal was gasified using air as the oxidant, producing some 80 Mm3 of gas with a heat content varying from 4.5–5.7 MJ/m3. The coal used is a top end subbituminous coal with an ash content of 28% and perhaps a little higher. In terms of its quality and distance from an export terminal it is regarded as ‘stranded’ coal with low potential for use in the export market. The pilot burn involved nine injection/production wells during the period, and there were nineteen monitoring wells to assess any changes in the groundwater. The timeframe for the project was as follows: l November 1997, site selection; l September 1999, design for the pilot burn complete; l December 1999, construction complete for the pilot burn. The first gas was produced and flared; l June 2002, after more than two years operation, the controlled shut-down of the underground pilot reactor was completed. There was an extensive environmental assessment made following the shut-down, and no deleterious impacts were found. It should be noted, however, that the area of coal involved was quite small, covering an area of only some 30 m by 100 m. As the UCG reactor is operated below the surrounding hydrostatic pressure, in principle, nothing leaves the process other than through the production well. The reactor chamber was surrounded by a number of monitoring wells with sample points and piezometers measuring the hydrostatic head. At the end of the two-year programme, and as part of the shut-down procedure, the reactor was blown through as it cooled down to remove any residual pollutants, using the ‘clean cavern’ approach discussed in Chapter 3. Since the initial trial there have been changes in the management, and the company is operating independently of the εUCG technology and Ergo Exergy, to whom they were previously licensed. In May 2006, Linc Energy became a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Linc Energy have been quite commercially aggressive, commonly mentioning their share value during technical presentations, and they have been successful in raising considerable amounts of capital to fund their projected developments. The original business plan was to use the syngas for power generation, but in view of the relatively low
price for electricity in Queensland, Linc Energy decided to pursue the policy of producing higher value products. This involves a considerably increased technical risk as syngas to liquids (STL) processes are less forgiving of variations in the syngas quality than turbine based power generation. Linc Energy commissioned an external study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers to assess the prospects for UCG, which was published in May 2008, and is available on the Linc website (Linc, 2008b). During the period after Linc Energy’s public listing, the focus of activities has been to establish the conditions for an air-blown UCG panel to deliver syngas to a syngas-to-liquids (STL) process development unit (PDU). Following extensive assessments, a new coal panel was set up for UCG, and a PDU for the production of Fischer-Tropsch liquids commissioned towards the end of 2008. The UCG development is based on linking an in-seam borehole with vertical wells, and not on the Russian εUCG system. Using this method, the in-seam hole(s) provide the linkage routes between vertical injection and production wells, and hydraulic fracturing will no longer be needed. The main aim of the trial is to supply air-blown gas of sufficient quality and quantity for the PDU. The syngas has a typical composition (on a nitrogen free basis) of H2 32%; CO 17%; CH4 18% and the H2/CO ratio of 1.88 is ideal for the Linc syngas to liquids process. In ten months some 2000 t of coal has been gasified, representing about 7 t/d. In May 2009 a controlled shut-down of the generator was started. The depressurisation and rehabilitation of UCG reactor cavities at the end of their operational life is a process that will have to be carried out many times during commercial-scale UCG operations, and Linc Energy will use the current experience to refine the cavity cleaning techniques used, to achieve the best possible environmental and operational outcomes (Minotti, 2009). After initial discussions with different syngas-to-liquids (STL) technology providers and several months of R&D carried out at the University of Kentucky’s Center of Applied Energy Research (CAER) the STL pilot plant was finally designed in South Africa by local engineering companies. At CAER a syngas with a similar composition to that produced from UCG at Chinchilla was used as the feedstock to determine the best catalyst to use (cobalt), as well as the operating temperatures and pressures applicable. The pilot plant is over 70 m long and eight stories high. It includes the facilities for syngas clean-up, compression, two FT fixed tube reactors and basic distillation equipment to separate the different fractions, including diesel. The PDU has the capacity to produce some 5 to10 bbl/d and is intended to establish the practicality of producing liquid fuels from an UCG operation. Linc Energy currently operates under a Queensland Government Mineral Development Licence. However, in view of the dispute referred to earlier, and the probability that the Queensland government would give priority to CBM as an established technology over UCG which is developing, Linc Energy decided to move its commercial-scale UCG/STL project to South Australia. One potential site is in the Arkaringa basin some 800 km northwest of Adelaide where there are very substantial coal resources, and the basin is said to contain one of the largest contiguous coal deposits in the world (Coober Pedy, 2008). Some of the necessary exploration has already been carried out by Sapex Ltd (Sapex, 2007). To facilitate the development, Linc Energy acquired Sapex Ltd, giving Linc Energy access to large coal exploration areas in South Australia. The coal is subbituminous with typically 38% moisture, 11% ash and 1% sulphur. The costs involved are not inconsiderable, and Linc has already spent some A$50  million at Chinchilla, while the Sapex takeover involved A$104 million (Syngas Refining, 2008b). Developments at Arckaringa by Altona Resources were already under way with proposals for a conventional mining operation with an on-site CTL plant. A pre-feasibility study has been completed, and a bankable feasibility study is currently being prepared. As reported in Couch (2008) the plans are for a 10 Mt/y open cut mine to supply, initially, two 15,000 bbl/d liquid product streams together with a power plant with 560 MWe of export power. This is quite separate from the Linc Energy plans. The transfer of the Linc activity to Arckaringa would facilitate the use of otherwise ‘stranded’ coal there. It would presumably involve some additional exploration work, as the requirements for UCG are more stringent than those for conventional mining and the UCG activity might be in deeper seams than those targeted by Altona. It would also require a new pilot-scale UCG operation to establish the design basis for a commercial-scale expansion in the new coal seam. Amongst the challenges to be addressed will be the hydrogeology of the site and the use and disposal of water as it is in an area where water use allocation approvals are required. As the decision was only made in November 2008, detailed plans have not yet been published, although the area is said to have the potential to support several 100,000 bbl/d UCG/STL plants (Syngas Refining, 2008b; Coober Pedy, 2008). While the major expansion of Linc Energy’s activity is now planned to be at Arckaringa, it is intended to retain the research and development activity at Chinchilla. It is intended to start up a new UCG generator before the end of 2009. Drilling has already started in the deeper Taroom coal measures. These extend from 250 to 500 m deep, but at the time of writing the exact site for the next trial had not been chosen. Tests are planned to assess the effects on syngas production of the higher operating pressures which will be used, and of the use of oxygen, rather than air, as the oxidant. There will be enhanced reactor cavity groundwater monitoring, and the re-injection of water/steam will be assessed (Minotti, 2009). With the planning of the new UCG trial, discussions are well advanced on the conceptual design for a 20,000  bbl/d STL demonstration plant. This could provide the basis for a series of similar sized modules for the Arckaringa expansion. Linc Energy have a partnership arrangement with Vietnamese and Japanese companies to assess and possibly develop a UCG activity in northern Vietnam. A MOU was signed in 2008 with the Vinacomin (Vietnamese) and Marubeni (Japanese) companies relating to stage one of the project (Linc, 2008c). Vinacom is the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group.  At the time of writing it was reported that the contract to undertake the pilot trial in a potential UCG Tonkin development area in the Red river delta, had been signed (ABNnewswire, 2009b). Linc Energy has also signed a letter of intent with the Xinwen Mining Group in China relating to the development of a UCG/STL activity in the Yinan and Yibei coalfields in Shandong province (Syngas Refining, 2008c)....


----------



## Smurf1976

profitmann said:


> What if the Syngas doesn`t hold enough Hydrogen even though it goes through an "enhancing stage" to run the Alpha Fuel Cell?
> Anyone costed the "enhancing stage" as yet?



You could always just use the gas to run a CCGT plant (conventional baseload gas-fired power station operating at about 55% efficiency) instead. That's very proven technology and pretty easy to get approval for in terms of environment etc.


----------



## profitmann

Smurf1976 said:


> You could always just use the gas to run a CCGT plant (conventional baseload gas-fired power station operating at about 55% efficiency) instead. That's very proven technology and pretty easy to get approval for in terms of environment etc.




Yep....proven and can be done. Makes sense IMO to go do this type of power generation to create some cahsflow..


----------



## Smurf1976

profitmann said:


> Yep....proven and can be done. Makes sense IMO to go do this type of power generation to create some cahsflow..



For the record, Pelican Point (480MW, Adeliaide), Swanbank E (350 MW, near Brisbane) and Tamar Valley (205MW, at Bell Bay Tasmania) are examples of plants of this type in operation in Australia.

Another option would be a pipeline to an existing power station. For that to work, the price for the gas would need to be lower than conventional natural gas but it's a way to get some cashflow. Depending on the actual price of the gas, such a pipeline to the conventional steam turbine gas-fired plant (less efficient than a new CCGT plant and hence with higher costs) at Torrens Island (Adelaide) would change the economics of it from peak/intermediate load to baseload. That depends on the delivered price of the gas of course but it could be worth LNC talking to the plant's owners (I know for a fact that they've been interested in alternative fuel options in the past so as to improve the economics of the plant).


----------



## basilio

The good news and the bad news.

Good news is that LNC has ensured survival for at least 12 months with  the $81m line of credit (whatever) Great.

Bad news is that they ar*e still* negotiating sale of the $1b plus coal tenements just as capital and investment markets are being seriously spooked over sovereign debt issues. Any bets that this will  really crimp the sales? (Or could one offer a different perspective and say that investors will now view physical resources as more valuable than paper ones??

And finally. Perhaps today is a good time to close LNC shares in anticipation of some news? Could certainly avoid some pain.. (But how many times can you do that before the market smells a rat ?)


----------



## bloubul

Thanks Mr Rudd for wiping out 20% of the resources SP. 

I know this is not a political forum but the impact this Super Profit Tax will have on investment in resource industry in Aus will be profound. I can't see how this tax is any different than Robert Mugabe nationalizing 51% of foreign companies in Zimbabwe. 

bloubul


----------



## basilio

No doubt that the market will be butchered again today. There is certainly enough bad news coming to the front.

I think LINC has to review Plans B C and D again.  At the moment it seems that progressing the GTL plant is dependent on a successful coal sale. I really wonder whether this can happen with the current upheaval in world markets.

In America the blowout of the exploration well in the Gulf of Mexico is a slow motion catastrophe. It will result in multi, multi billion dollars of economic and environmental damages. These have the potential to seriously hurt BP not to mention the American economy with obvious knock on effects to the rest of the world. (I  wouldn't want to be an insurance or re -insurance company right now..)
*
I suggest that exploration in the Gulf of Mexico  and most deep off sea platforms will also be stopped in it's tracks with all the implications for future oil supplies that entails.*

So where does that leave LINC ? I suggest it is in theory an industrial stock with the capacity to turn a proven resource ( underground coal ) into a critical product -  high quality diesel. There is still a significant risk factor  in developing  the large scale plant but one would hope that the last 12 months and ongoing  research has  sorted out most of the technicalities.

The prognosis for oil supplies is getting grimmer. We have already had a number of reports this year which point to inevitable reductions in oil output within the next 3-4 years as current large producers  decline. Australia oil supplies are equally in decline

In that context there is a critical necessity to fast track coal to diesel production *and ensure this industry does not fall over in whatever economic crisis may be coming.*

This is definitely the time (IMHO...)for LINC management to look at other funding and partnership options to develop the GTL plant ASAP. Given the lead times involved and the clearly visible collapse in oil production in the next few years more delays could prove


----------



## frankblack

basilio said:


> No doubt that the market will be butchered again today. There is certainly enough bad news coming
> In that context there is a critical necessity to fast track coal to diesel production *and ensure this industry does not fall over in whatever economic crisis may be coming.*
> 
> This is definitely the time (IMHO...)for LINC management to look at other funding and partnership options to develop the GTL plant ASAP. Given the lead times involved and the clearly visible collapse in oil production in the next few years more delays could prove




did you mean, ensure this "company" does not fall over?
because if there is a real economic crisis again, the oil price will plummet making it harder for LINC. sounds like lose, lose.
and thats what is happening to the share price.


----------



## basilio

> Re: LNC - Linc Energy
> Quote:
> Originally Posted by basilio View Post
> No doubt that the market will be butchered again today. There is certainly enough bad news coming
> In that context there is a critical necessity to fast track coal to diesel production and ensure this industry does not fall over in whatever economic crisis may be coming.
> 
> This is definitely the time (IMHO...)for LINC management to look at other funding and partnership options to develop the GTL plant ASAP. Given the lead times involved and the clearly visible collapse in oil production in the next few years more delays could prove
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> did you mean, ensure this "company" does not fall over?
> because if there is a real economic crisis again, the oil price will plummet making it harder for LINC. sounds like lose, lose.
> and thats what is happening to the share price
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .
Click to expand...



Good point. On one level I certainly want to see LINC stay solvent and profitable. 

On the bigger picture however I believe it is critical for governments to recognize that traditional cheap  oil supplies are rapidly and irrevocably collapsing and that coal to oil technology needs to be supported as one part of future energy supplies.

Your quite right that a collapsing economy could also collapse the oil price in the short term threatening Linc's investment. This doesn't make the market right - just very myopic.


----------



## Nero64

Linc hit 95c today. Anybody catch it? Talk about price extremes. Even If you could trade those 20% swings 4-5 times a year you would be laughing. 

I suppose now is not a good time to release any news about the selling. I doubt the market will jump in.


----------



## springhill

basilio said:


> So where does that leave LINC ? I suggest it is in theory an industrial stock with the capacity to turn a proven resource ( underground coal ) into a critical product -  high quality diesel. There is still a significant risk factor  in developing  the large scale plant but one would hope that the last 12 months and ongoing  research has  sorted out most of the technicalities.
> 
> The prognosis for oil supplies is getting grimmer. We have already had a number of reports this year which point to inevitable reductions in oil output within the next 3-4 years as current large producers  decline. Australia oil supplies are equally in decline
> 
> In that context there is a critical necessity to fast track coal to diesel production and ensure this industry does not fall over in whatever economic crisis may be coming






frankblack said:


> did you mean, ensure this "company" does not fall over?
> because if there is a real economic crisis again, the oil price will plummet making it harder for LINC. sounds like lose, lose.
> and thats what is happening to the share price.




A couple of points here, i have been on the UCG bandwagon for a while, now the CNX announcement of a well blockage..... 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100303/pdf/31p1qky4srp7cc.pdf
I kind of let slide, but when CXY came out with virtually the same announcement.....
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100427/pdf/31pzbrg0bjxyt9.pdf
I started to get concerned, hence sold completely out of CXY at 0.115 and took major profits on CNX at 0.50 and after reviewing the latest price movements it seems i definately made the right decision.
These faults may or may not affect LNC directly but seem to cast a shadow over the industry as a whole somewhat.
2 companies reporting the same faults within a month or so of each other? Hmmmmm
May have something to do with the LNC slip, as the same applies to CNX and CXY.
Would love to hear others thoughts.


----------



## profitmann

springhill said:


> A couple of points here, i have been on the UCG bandwagon for a while, now the CNX announcement of a well blockage.....
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100303/pdf/31p1qky4srp7cc.pdf
> I kind of let slide, but when CXY came out with virtually the same announcement.....
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100427/pdf/31pzbrg0bjxyt9.pdf
> I started to get concerned, hence sold completely out of CXY at 0.115 and took major profits on CNX at 0.50 and after reviewing the latest price movements it seems i definately made the right decision.
> These faults may or may not affect LNC directly but seem to cast a shadow over the industry as a whole somewhat.
> 2 companies reporting the same faults within a month or so of each other? Hmmmmm
> May have something to do with the LNC slip, as the same applies to CNX and CXY.
> Would love to hear others thoughts.




No problem with well blockages at Linc. Superior well designs taking into account the underground thermal expansions combined with their partnering with world wide recognised casing a well product manufacturers and suppliers. Their wells are not drilled on the cheap, they use the top products and have leading edge down hole technology. Blockages and the like will never happen in a Linc well. IMO  the industry players need to take advantage of world leading equipment technology - something Linc is very good at.


----------



## luckypaul

Linc Announcement Today (Thursay 6th May)
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/...Affecting Linc Energy_s Coal Asset Sale N.pdf



> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT / MEDIA RELEASE
> 6 May 2010
> 
> HENRY RESOURCE TAX NOT AFFECTING LINC ENERGY’S COAL ASSET SALE NEGOTIATIONS
> 
> Linc Energy (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) announced today that the ‘Henry Resource Tax Proposal’ has not hindered its current ongoing coal asset sale discussions with most parties, stating the coal purchase is more about securing supply.
> 
> Recent valuations of the Teresa (Emerald) coal tenement area have in fact increased, based on higher coal prices and higher demand for coal and coal property in general. Linc Energy is working through a new valuation process which will be the basis for establishing a sale price guideline with current prospective buyers. The Company expects a detailed update on the coal asset sale proceedings and the valuation process over the coming six weeks.
> UBS (Sydney), who is assisting Linc Energy in the coal sales process, is witnessing a general increase in interest from existing and new potential purchasers.
> 
> Linc Energy’s CEO, Mr Peter Bond said today,
> 
> "The coal sale process has heated up significantly over the past 90 days. We are seeing demand from new potential buyers and due diligence discussions progressing to levels of detail we simply have not seen before. Linc Energy has had a number of discussions with the potential buyers of the coal assets and they have made it clear that the sales program will continue as planned."
> 
> For further information please contact Mr. Peter Bond at Linc Energy.
> Peter Bond
> Chief Executive Officer




I believe this is was why Linc rose 2.3% today whilst most Aussie resource stocks are still being "Henry'd".  This is good news but most of us have heard the "sale in six weeks" before now so will be wary of it. Still it is nice to be informed. I wouldn't blame Linc if they decided to move their first commercial GTL plant to USA, just to say "Up Yours" to the Australian Government.

I also wish the timing was better, markets are as scary as hell right now and not likely to hold themselves together for 6 weeks based on the fact that soverign debt issues simply cannot be resolved quickly. We are in for years of unknowns which is a market nightmare 

Still, I am a long term Linc Energy holder and would be daft to leave now. :


----------



## frankblack

luckypaul said:


> Linc Announcement Today (Thursay 6th May)
> http://www.vision6.com.au/download/...Affecting Linc Energy_s Coal Asset Sale N.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> I believe this is was why Linc rose 2.3% today whilst most Aussie resource stocks are still being "Henry'd".  This is good news but most of us have heard the "sale in six weeks" before now so will be wary of it. Still it is nice to be informed. I wouldn't blame Linc if they decided to move their first commercial GTL plant to USA, just to say "Up Yours" to the Australian Government.
> 
> I also wish the timing was better, markets are as scary as hell right now and not likely to hold themselves together for 6 weeks based on the fact that soverign debt issues simply cannot be resolved quickly. We are in for years of unknowns which is a market nightmare
> 
> Still, I am a long term Linc Energy holder and would be daft to leave now. :



Peter Bond, about as credible as K.Rudd.  why believe anything bond has to say??  as for super profits, well, is there any chance Linc will make super profits?  just wont affect Linc.


----------



## Mickel

The Super Profits Tax may snare LINC's Coal Sale proceeds if it were in operation now.

There is some media comment today spectulating that the tax should come in after around 11% profits instead of 5.5%. I believe this is about the same rate as some Petroleum Resourse Rent Tax.


----------



## baja

$1.12, great... Good one Krudd, hope you enjoyed your time as PM because come election time, you will be joining the centrelink queue....FFS


----------



## profitmann

baja said:


> $1.12, great... Good one Krudd, hope you enjoyed your time as PM because come election time, you will be joining the centrelink queue....FFS




Not gone yet....keep the faith.....!!! The lattest announcement is a good one.....Coal sale looming......c`mon heads up.


----------



## basilio

> Not gone yet....keep the faith.....!!! The lattest announcement is a good one.....Coal sale looming......c`mon heads up.




Nice piece of reassurance profitmann. 

I think the last announcement on oxygen injection into the coal seam is good. Somehow I think it has been around before and was always one of the  improvements that was going to be made to the UCG process.

It was clearly an exercise in damage control as the bear market is taking hold and very effectively unnerving many people. What I would like to see would be more information about how the oxygen injection was going to make the current processes more efficient and therefore more profitable  both in the short term and longer. I think we should also be hearing about the progress of the alkaline cells that were going to enable a quick movement into cost effective energy production. That would be nice to hear.

The coal deal?  I know that it is supposed to be on track ect but I can't help feeling that the global contagion will depress prices yet again and scare off investors. But I feel even more certain that* Linc must  get into the GTL process as quickly as possibly* in view of looming oil shortages in the next few years. 

And it would be good to see some  short term financial return that partially paid the rent.....

Finally there is always the feeling that perhaps we should be out of all shares for the moment because the market will fall, that cash will be king for a while and that we can always come back in later on.  Haven't done that yet but somehow I feel a lot of the smart money has beaten me to the door.


----------



## profitmann

basilio said:


> Nice piece of reassurance profitmann.
> 
> I think the last announcement on oxygen injection into the coal seam is good. Somehow I think it has been around before and was always one of the  improvements that was going to be made to the UCG process.
> 
> It was clearly an exercise in damage control as the bear market is taking hold and very effectively unnerving many people. What I would like to see would be more information about how the oxygen injection was going to make the current processes more efficient and therefore more profitable  both in the short term and longer. I think we should also be hearing about the progress of the alkaline cells that were going to enable a quick movement into cost effective energy production. That would be nice to hear.
> 
> The coal deal?  I know that it is supposed to be on track ect but I can't help feeling that the global contagion will depress prices yet again and scare off investors. But I feel even more certain that* Linc must  get into the GTL process as quickly as possibly* in view of looming oil shortages in the next few years.
> 
> And it would be good to see some  short term financial return that partially paid the rent.....
> 
> Finally there is always the feeling that perhaps we should be out of all shares for the moment because the market will fall, that cash will be king for a while and that we can always come back in later on.  Haven't done that yet but somehow I feel a lot of the smart money has beaten me to the door.




I guess the GTL is a great concept but a long way in for the gold if you know what I mean. Prefer to see them focus on UCG - put some UCG Generators together (6 minimum) and demonstrate they can produce real commercial quantities of Syngas. Then hook that Syngas up into Power Generation. Plug the power into the network and get some bikkies to pay the rent. That`s the focus and I would prefer to see them get these UCG Generators up at Chinchilla not SA. Then at least they demonstrate that all the hype can actually create some cash flow. Keep the coal sale bubbling away to raise funds for the GTL project. The alkaline fuel cells are a long shot IMO. Don`t think the gasification process at present is creating enough Hydrogen to make all this work. Great idea - but can it be commercialised within an acceptable time frame??? Anyway seems there is still many faithfulls around who live in hope!!.


----------



## noirua

Time to make a purchase for the longer term now that LNC have introduced UCG Gasification for very deep mines.


----------



## Smurf1976

profitmann said:


> IPlug the power into the network and get some bikkies to pay the rent. That`s the focus and I would prefer to see them get these UCG Generators up at Chinchilla not SA.



Why Chinchilla? Wholesale electricity is around 50% more expensive in SA compared to Qld so I can't see your logic there.

If it were me, I'd look very seriously at the option of selling syngas to an existing power station in the Adelaide city area in order to get a large scale development up and running, thus thoroughly proving to everyone that UGC works, at relatively low capital cost. All that's really needed is to get the UGC happening and build a pipeline (gas pipelines being relatively cheap compared to power stations). That plus some relatively minor work at the power station.

Only real risk is that conventional natural gas producers drop prices sufficiently to keep syngas out of the market. Possible, but such an outcome certainly goes against the global trend of higher gas prices.

Converting one unit at Torrens Island A station comes to mind as a possibility. If the gas is cheap enough then that could get that plant back into baseload operation (in practice it's mostly used as peaking plant these days). And being a steam plant, there's not a lot to do in terms of switching it to a different gas (and not a lot of risk of anything too nasty happening if there are any issues with gas quality etc).


----------



## basilio

Did anyone go the Linc Limelight presentation in Melbourne on Thursday evening? Or other recent Limelight presentations? Just wondering if there was any interesting news.

There was a  nice blip in Linc's price at opening today so perhaps some of the investors groups at last nights presentation decided to come on board...


----------



## basilio

> If it were me, I'd look very seriously at the option of selling syngas to an existing power station in the Adelaide city area in order to get a large scale development up and running, thus thoroughly proving to everyone that UGC works, at relatively low capital cost. All that's really needed is to get the UGC happening and build a pipeline (gas pipelines being relatively cheap compared to power stations). That plus some relatively minor work at the power station.
> 
> Only real risk is that conventional natural gas producers drop prices sufficiently to keep syngas out of the market. Possible, but such an outcome certainly goes against the global trend of higher gas prices.




Why wouldn't LINC produce and sell electricity directly from Chincilla and other UCG plants?  I was looking at Alakline Fuel cell (AFC) website and came across an analysts  view on where they see their fuel cell going.

In fact they are really, REALLY excited about the LINC connection because  they believe there will scores of LINC UCG plants operating within a few years converting syngas into effectively carbon less electricity at a very good price.

Would be really interesting to see how the current AFC trial is going and when some commercial energy production is commenced.



> News flow from AFC since November 2009 has been stellar. We believe it is only a matter of time before the market values AFC's significant
> growth potential. Commercial tie-ups with Air Products, Centrica,
> WSP Group and Linc Energy ("Linc") are testament to the wholesale
> power producing potential of AFC's high efficiency, zero-carbon, low
> cost technology.* Forecast roll-out of Underground Coal Gasification
> ("UCG") with Linc, in which carbon capture is free, generates
> potential 20yr cash flow that changes our fair value upwards from
> £50m to £207m*.
> 
> This revision assumes a 22% WACC, no green credits,
> no maintenance income and no growth after 4.2GW of UCG is running
> by 2021. We rate AFC a Speculative Buy and set a 137p target price.
> Projected 4.2GW Linc UCG roll-out by 2021. Based on Australian clean
> coal major Linc Energy's objectives (ASX: LNC, www.lincenergy.com.au),
> we project 4.2GW of UCG sites throughout Australia, Europe and the US by
> 2021.*In December, Linc signed a deal with AFC giving it exclusive rights to
> deploy AFC's technology for power generation at these sites. Sales of AFC's
> 50kW modular system to Linc at £35K on a 43% margin and a 10% royalty
> to AFC on power produced generate 20yr cash flow with a NPV of £157m.*




The whole report is worth a read.

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/AFC-Energy-plc-AFC.L-Allenby-Capital-Mar-18-2010.pdf


----------



## Smurf1976

basilio said:


> Why wouldn't LINC produce and sell electricity directly from Chincilla and other UCG plants?



No real reason why they couldn't do that. But in the case of SA, there's already a massive use of gas for power generation not far away. If, and that's a big "if", capital is an issue for LNC then just supplying the gas to someone else who produces the electricity would be a means of getting cashflow, thoroughly demonstating the gas production technology to build investor confidence etc fairly quickly.

It's like a mining company with some iron ore. More often than not, the company that mines the iron ore never ends up operating a steel works. They just sell the ore to someone else who makes the steel. Even the big companies do that.

Personally, I think liquid fuels production offers more long term potential than power generation for them anyway. But they seem to be having a few issues coming up with the $ billions required to get large scale production up and running, hence my suggestion that they ought to be looking at all options.


----------



## noirua

It seems posters here know far more that I do about LNC. Having read everything, I think everything, I've added to my holding.
It's all your fault if the stock tanks


----------



## basilio

> It seems posters here know far more that I do about LNC. Having read everything, I think everything, I've added to my holding.
> It's all your fault if the stock tanks




If were all so bloody clever why the hell hasn't this wonder stock shot into the stratosphere? 

Perhaps the reality is that there are many companies with good ideas and good products but success does not necessarily lie with these components. In fact a decent ramper can do wonders with most worthless piece of rubbish - as long as he/she can persuade enough people to jump in. 

Not quite sure where that leaves LINC. Just 'Waiting for Bondie' I suppose...


----------



## profitmann

basilio said:


> Why wouldn't LINC produce and sell electricity directly from Chincilla and other UCG plants?  I was looking at Alakline Fuel cell (AFC) website and came across an analysts  view on where they see their fuel cell going.
> 
> In fact they are really, REALLY excited about the LINC connection because  they believe there will scores of LINC UCG plants operating within a few years converting syngas into effectively carbon less electricity at a very good price.
> 
> Would be really interesting to see how the current AFC trial is going and when some commercial energy production is commenced.
> 
> 
> 
> The whole report is worth a read.
> 
> 
> http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/AFC-Energy-plc-AFC.L-Allenby-Capital-Mar-18-2010.pdf




LNC can`t produce more than a set amount of MW`s from Chinchilla and I heard it`s less than 50 MW. Power into the grid is the issue - transmission infrastructure?? - Who pays - Ergon?? IMO there is an over supply of power atm given some 800 MW has recently come on stream into the Ergon network. Really need the CSG sector to take off so they place demands into the system and Linc can "sell" some generation. AFC is still a long shot - no trials reported tells me nothing is happening!


----------



## Smurf1976

profitmann said:


> LNC can`t produce more than a set amount of MW`s from Chinchilla and I heard it`s less than 50 MW. Power into the grid is the issue - transmission infrastructure?? - Who pays - Ergon?? IMO there is an over supply of power atm given some 800 MW has recently come on stream into the Ergon network. Really need the CSG sector to take off so they place demands into the system and Linc can "sell" some generation. AFC is still a long shot - no trials reported tells me nothing is happening!



Average wholesale electricity price 2008-09: Qld $34.00, SA $50.98

Average wholesale electricity price so far in 2009-10: Qld $34.11, SA $56.83

If power generation is the aim, then I really can't see a lot of point in doing it in Qld when they have the opportunity to gain far greater revenue elsewhere.


----------



## Mickel

noirua said:


> It seems posters here know far more that I do about LNC. Having read everything, I think everything, I've added to my holding.
> It's all your fault if the stock tanks




That's a bit hard Noirua, blaming others if LNC tanks. After all, YOU are the one who started this thread on LNC.


----------



## Mickel

Justyn Peters gave a Limelight talk in Melbourne on Friday 4 June.

There is an audio broadcast of the event (approx 1hr 30mins) on LNC website
under the tab "News & Links".

This presentation answers a number of questions raised here recently, including gas supply in Sth Aust.and AFC energy unit situation.

There is also an Fund Manager review of the company in the broadcast.


----------



## Coal Face

Does nobody here realise the potential for Linc if they take exclusivity on Fuel Cells for UCG?

Look at slide 11 where there are 11 UCG projects near Linc's Chinchilla plant, if Linc take exclusivity they could either build owner-operator power stations at the other 10 projects, or maybe 6 spread between them and pipe the gas from each UCG to its nearest power station.

The Gov't WANT Linc to build 400MW from day 1, they are the one's pushing Linc up from its old plan for 200MW, so the power demand is there and by the time it is in(begining 2012) the infrastructure will be too.

Slide 12 shows the planned power grid for the area. Slide 10 is worth a look too.

The coal to liquids plants in the area will have spare hydrogen, just as Linc would have had if they had built the GTL plant before the power plant. So there is scope for fuel cells to be put in by Linc on those GTLs.

By securing exclusivity over AFC fuel cells for use in UCG, Linc would become the #1 UCG power station company, supplying power stations with the lowest CO2, lowest particulates,  highest efficiency, lowest CAPEX and lowest OPEX. These could be supplied to other UCG's in Australia(note Carbon Energy and Cougar, Liberty and others will tender out the power station to an owner operator, then they will see the syngas to that power station), USA, Alaska, Canada, UK, Germany, Vietnam, etc etc. Linc could have 50GW+ in place over the next 20 years.

Then the last slide for the cherry on top for those with doubts about the area!

Key messages to take home…
Major international companies are currently investing $140 Billion in our region

http://www.lgsa-plus.net.au/resourc...own-Western-Downs-Regional-Council_010610.pdf


----------



## basilio

> Re: LNC - Linc Energy
> Does nobody here realise the potential for Linc if they take exclusivity on Fuel Cells for UCG?
> 
> Look at slide 11 where there are 11 UCG projects near Linc's Chinchilla plant, if Linc take exclusivity they could either build owner-operator power stations at the other 10 projects, or maybe 6 spread between them and pipe the gas from each UCG to its nearest power station.




There is acres and acres of blue sky in that presentation coal face.

As I read it, it was largely a puff piece to show how vibrant and go ahead that region  of Queensland could be. Bit of local promotion. It would be technically impossible for all the possible projects to go ahead in the forseeable future.

But certainly Linc  could/should make a big impact if it can prove up the fuel cell technology *and actually be the builder and operator of these energy sources*.

As I have suggested before there are many examples in business where the best technology and the most cost efficient businesses do not succeed. The winners are often the larger incumbents with "reputation", established political contacts  and other capacities to influence governments and authorities. For example in what way does Macquarie bank represent the most cost effective way to run national infrastructure utilities ?


----------



## Mickel

Coal Face said:


> .
> 
> The Gov't WANT Linc to build 400MW from day 1, they are the one's pushing Linc up from its old plan for 200MW, so the power demand is there and by the time it is in(begining 2012) the infrastructure will be too.




Justyn Peters in his presentation on 4 June 2010 stated that Sth Aust will most likely have LNC's first commercial operation (gas for power) because of the Government there actively supporting LNC. He stated that the Qld Govt was holding up approvals for commercial operations for various reasons for at least 2 years. The only exception was for a small power supply (50MW). 
As far as Justyn is concerned, LNC have no immediate plans to build even a 200MW power station at Chinchilla, so I agree that this looks like a puff piece.


----------



## Mickel

Announcement by LNC on AFC Fuel Cell trial- all looks good with further trials planned at Chinchilla.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100629/pdf/31r20gbsx0b710.pdf

Still waiting for the Coal Sale Announcement..... then watch the S/P rocket skywards.


----------



## basilio

> Announcement by LNC on AFC Fuel Cell trial- all looks good with further trials planned at Chinchilla.




It's a good story in that it is proving the effectiveness of the alkaline fuel cell in turning hydrogen into electricity. Will be really interested to see how the 50 kw fuel cell is progressing at AFC. That is the core of future commercial developments.

Naturally the market has responded  accordingly to this  excellent new news. Linc fell from 1.17 to finish at 1.06.  

You know even if the coal deal never comes off the commercial/ environmental potential of a cheap fuel cell driven power station is extraordinary.(IMO of course. It would be good to see some independent analysis of this.)


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Naturally the market has responded  accordingly to this  excellent new news. Linc fell from 1.17 to finish at 1.06.
> 
> You know even if the coal deal never comes off the commercial/ environmental potential of a cheap fuel cell driven power station is extraordinary.(IMO of course. It would be good to see some independent analysis of this.)




I understand your frustration, Basilio, but to be fair, the S/P was around $1.10 before the announcement, shot up to $1.15 after the ann before dropping back to finish at $1.06 which was a fall of $0.02 for the day.

I agree that some independent analysis of the fuel cell would be a good confirmation of Linc's position.


----------



## craigj

in this environment most stocks show nothing on their share increase with good announcements but they are likely to be first movers when the market rallies


----------



## basilio

Perhaps not surprisingly AFC (Alkaline Fuel cells) has wasted no time highlighting the success of their fuel cell at LINC Chincilla plant. After all they really, REALLY want Linc to make it big with their cell.

Interesting point in their report is the view that the fuel cell will produce electricity at 4p per kwhr

Apparently AFC shares jumped 14% to 22p on news of the successful trial.

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content...FUEL-CELL-SYSTEM-IN-OPERATIONAL-UCG-PLANT.pdf


----------



## InvestaNoob

I'm surprised that news of the AFC trial didn't translate to a spike in LNC as well. Just a matter of time.


----------



## Miner

InvestaNoob said:


> I'm surprised that news of the AFC trial didn't translate to a spike in LNC as well. Just a matter of time.




Welcome InvestaNoob to ASF and for your first posting.
Probably the CEO of LNC Mr Bond has already created so much of hype that this little news from AFC trial did not excite the investors or traders.

DNH 

Cheers


----------



## basilio

> Welcome InvestaNoob to ASF and for your first posting.
> Probably the CEO of LNC Mr Bond has already created so much of hype that this little news from AFC trial did not excite the investors or traders.




Nice intro to  a new member Miner. At least we know that Linc's coal reserves arn't "vapourware". But it would great to have a successful resolution of the never ending coal sale saga. It seems to me that much of the rest of Linc's projections are based on the finance from this deal. 

In fact I hope that is NOT totally true. Surely when the company was started  the plans for the development of the GTL plant weren't predicated on a $1 billion + magic  coal/ Tatts lotto win. And there should be substantial other options in play to exploit the AFC technology as well as the operational UCG plant....


----------



## bluekat

Maybe, just maybe, LNC should consider mining the coal it cannot sell as a total asset sale. Better to have some positive cash flow rather than the ongoing negative.


----------



## Mickel

bluekat said:


> Maybe, just maybe, LNC should consider mining the coal it cannot sell as a total asset sale. Better to have some positive cash flow rather than the ongoing negative.




Apart from the fact that huge Capex would be required to mine the coal, various LINC people have stated that P Bond would rather retain the asset than sell for a Billion $ + less than it's worth, especially when coal is appreciating in value.

One such occasion was Justyn Peters at the Melbourne Limelight Series on June 4. 
http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/the-power-of-underground-coal-gasification?popup=true&wl=76


----------



## InvestaNoob

Miner said:


> Welcome InvestaNoob to ASF and for your first posting.
> Probably the CEO of LNC Mr Bond has already created so much of hype that this little news from AFC trial did not excite the investors or traders.
> 
> DNH
> 
> Cheers




Thanks for the warm welcome Miner. I agree that sometimes the hype can overshadow the true potential and create a 'boy who cried wolf' syndrome. Regardless, I'm looking at ten years from now, and visualising the big smile on my face. The world needs this technology to be commercialised in my opinion.


----------



## avaramo

*adani enterprises to buy $1 bn coal mine*

Ka-ching!  Could the sale be finally happening?

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/videoshow/6163242.cms


----------



## basilio

Well maybe the ship has come in or...  whatever. Certainly a very big spike in LNC on The Economist story and the subsequent response from the company.

By the way if you havn't yet listened to the Justyn Peters presentation from the limelight series( as mentioned previously) it is really worth close attention. 

http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/th...pup=true&wl=76

Disclosure. I hold and have increased my exposure to LINC


----------



## Calliope

I used to be a regular contributor to this thread and I must admit that Linc has been very good to me. I pulled in about $50.000 trading on its ups and downs. It was extremely sensitive to good and bad news.  Most of the good news was only spin, but it worked.

At one stage I held about 100 thousand shares and I was lucky to to get out at the right time, at a stage where I had a lot of capital losses to partially off-set the capital gains.


----------



## basilio

* Adani Enterprises
    * Linc Energy


> Coal
> Gautam Adani’s Adani Enterprises is close to acquiring a coal mine for $1 billion in Queensland, Australia from Linc Energy, two independent sources close to the development said. The coal block is expected to have reserves of 7-8 billion tones.
> 
> The acquisition is under Adani Enterprises’ subsidiary, Singapore based Adani Global. Out of the $1 bn, Adani is expected to give the first tranche of $435 mn in the next few days. The rest of the payment will be made over the next few months.
> 
> Sources said, Adani Enterprises will invest in the project and aims to produce over 50 million tones of coal in the next 3-4 years.
> 
> Sources said the final announcement of the deal is expected by the middle of the next month. Adani Enterprises declined to comment on the development.




http://www.24dunia.com/english-news...-1-bn-coal-mine-from-Linc-Energy/6650874.html

It's great news of course but it is certainly playing havoc with the protocols of reporting to the market.


----------



## basilio

> The acquisition is under Adani Enterprises’ subsidiary, Singapore based Adani Global. Out of the $1 bn, Adani is expected to give the first tranche of $435 mn in the next few days. The rest of the payment will be made over the next few months......
> 
> Sources said the final announcement of the deal is expected by the middle of the next month.




Does this seem a bit odd?  Coming up with $400 m plus on a deal that will only be confirmed in the marketplace a month later? How could a company keep a financial transaction that big secret for any length of time let alone a month ?

Any thoughts ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Does this seem a bit odd?  Coming up with $400 m plus on a deal that will only be confirmed in the marketplace a month later? How could a company keep a financial transaction that big secret for any length of time let alone a month ?
> 
> Any thoughts ?




Perhaps "the final announcement of the deal is expected by the middle of the next month" is the approval by the FIRB.

The Indian article rings true with me as LNC people have said on more than one occasion that they won't be making any MOU announcements on Coal Tenement Sales. Instead, they will make an announcement only when a substancial deposit has been banked.

Perhaps the big announcement will be made after close of business Friday, so the momentum can build over the weekend in the media.


I have held LNC for over 2 years and also recently increased my holding.


----------



## Jonathan111

By Ross Kelly 

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 


SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC.AU) Chief Executive Peter Bond said Wednesday that India's Adani Enterprises Ltd. (512599.BY) is interested in buying one of the company's Queensland coal properties, which Linc has recently valued at over A$1 billion. 

"I can tell you we are talking to Adani and we are deep in negotiations with them," Bond told Dow Jones Newswires. 

"We are taking to a few other groups on that asset, of which Adani are one of the leading groups," he added. 

Bond's comments confirm an Indian media report early Wednesday that suggested Linc is poised to sell Adani a coal property for about US$1 billion. 

Linc shares soared 31% to A$1.38 on Wednesday, giving the Brisbane-based company a market value of about A$675 million, as the report sparked fresh hope that Linc will finally sell its non-core assets after two previous deals with Chinese companies collapsed at the last hurdle. Bond's confirmation that Linc is talking to Adani came after the market closed. 

Resurgent interest in the assets isn't entirely surprising, given sustained Asian demand for coal, which triggered last year's Chinese takeover of Felix Resources Ltd. and this month's offer by Thai miner Banpu PCL (BANPU.TH) for Centennial Coal Co. (CEY.AU). 

According to data from Dealogic, Australian coal assets have attracted takeover offers worth US$6.6 billion in the January-June period. That's higher than the total value of transactions completed in any of the previous four years. 

As one of the world's fastest growing economies, India currently has to import coal because it doesn't produce enough to meet increasing demand. 

The need to source more foreign coal is urgent and a failure to do so could impact the country's economic growth, Coal India Chairman Partha S Bhattacharya told journalists during a visit to Australia last September. 

India aims to increase annual additions to power generation capacity fourfold over the next few years to 13,000 megawatts each year from around 3,500 MW a year recently, to provide electricity to millions of rural households and eliminate frequent blackouts. 

Citing two "independent" sources close to the deal, India's The Economic Times said Adani is expected to make an initial upfront payment to Linc of US$435 million in the next few days, with the rest of the US$1 billion to come over the next few months. 

Linc said last month that it had received a number of "written indicative" offers for all three coal properties: Emerald, Galilee and Pentland. 

Bond didn't provide more details on the progress of the discussions, although he did confirm that Adani is interested in the Galilee block. 

Negotiations with other parties are continuing over the other two blocks, he said. 

Last November, Linc said the Galilee block could contain 7.8 billion metric tons of thermal coal. Emerald contains a mix of thermal and semi-soft coking coal and the smallest asset, Pentland, contains thermal coal. 

"Linc Energy confirms that at this stage it has not concluded any binding contract or finalized any material terms with any party," the company said in a statement Wednesday. 

Any news on the sales has been met with a healthy degree of investor skepticism, given Linc's failed attempt to sell the Emerald tenement to China's Xinwen Mining Group for A$1.5 billion and all three properties to Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (1171.HK). 

Linc wants to sell the assets so it can focus on its coal-to-liquids fuel business, which it recently moved to South Australia state. It still has a demonstration plant operating at Chinchilla in Queensland state. 


-By Ross Kelly, Dow Jones Newswires;  61-2-8272-4692 ; Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com 


Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=o9xWfAoRj7j+BqGYawZ9qA==. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day. 



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2010 03:27 ET (07:27 GMT)


----------



## grace

Calliope said:


> I used to be a regular contributor to this thread and I must admit that Linc has been very good to me. I pulled in about $50.000 trading on its ups and downs. It was extremely sensitive to good and bad news.  Most of the good news was only spin, but it worked.
> 
> At one stage I held about 100 thousand shares and I was lucky to to get out at the right time, at a stage where I had a lot of capital losses to partially off-set the capital gains.




Sounds like me.  Sold 60% of my holding at $3.50.  Did not get the top, but have to be happy with that.  Still hold the balance as I like Linc.  I will be pleased when the day comes that they have some money in the bank.

I used to post on this thread when there was mainly just me.  I enjoy reading all of those who post now though as it saves me some time so I can research other stocks.


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post #1225 regarding the Coal Sale story (rumour), what doesn't ring true is the sale price of $1 Billion (US). I would have thought that P Bond would hold out for much more than $1 Billion for a coal deposit of around 8 Billion tonnes.

Still, $US 1 Billion will be very welcome and enough to set up the 1st 20,000 bpd GTL facility. Once the sale is confirmed, the updated Analysts Reports on the profitability of the GTL facility should make very interesting ($$$) reading.


----------



## basilio

> Further to my last post #1225 regarding the Coal Sale story (rumour), what doesn't ring true is the sale price of $1 Billion (US). I would have thought that P Bond would hold out for much more than $1 Billion for a coal deposit of around 8 Billion tonnes.
> 
> Still, $US 1 Billion will be very welcome and enough to set up the 1st 20,000 bpd GTL facility. Once the sale is confirmed, the updated Analysts Reports on the profitability of the GTL facility should make very interesting ($$$) reading.




In a financial market that is still deeply concerned about keeping the balls in the air it would make very good sense to take $1bn for Galilee with a very substantial upfront figure. The GTL technology is being optimized; the plant designs are close to finished ; appropriate staff are coming onboard. Time to start working before other energy companies steal a march. 

And of course there are still 2 other coal deposits to sell and there is nothing like the imminent sale of one of the packages to focus other buyers attention on the remaining mines.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this twilight zone between leakage of the alleged first coal sale and final formal confirmation. Two years of broken promises have taken their toll on investors confidence in LINC's coal sale statements. Which of course is why LINC management wants this deal absolutely sealed and delivered before announcing it.


----------



## Mickel

The Indian enterprise "Adani Group" is the company rumored to be buying Linc's Galilee coal deposit.

They have also recently been given the rights to assess the viability of new coal export infrastructure at Dudgeon Point near Mackay (adjacent to Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay coal ports) by a Qld Govt owned authority.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/busin...-queensland-coal/story-e6freqmx-1225890924715

Other stories in the Indian Economic Times report that Adani have a private port on the west coast of India and are looking to establish another port on the east coast of India. Also that they are developing a power station.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/quickiearticleshow/4829236.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5942536.cms

Looks like they are setting up a fully intregrated enterprise.


----------



## luckypaul

Any news that moves the share price positively has got to be good but I am dubious about this one. The Adani sale price reported is $1 billion (which like you guys I assume is USD so AUD 1.1349 billion) for Galilee. 

Back in Sep 2008,  Linc were offered AUD 1.5 billion for Emerald which is the mid size of the 3 tenements for sale (taken from http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-22.pdf). Galilee is considerably larger than Emerald (like more than 9x in terms of pure tonnage):-

Galilee:                    7.8 Billion Tonnes
Emerald (Teresa):     852 Million Tonnes Inferred
Pentland:                266 Million Tonnes Inferred

Since September 2008 and the original offer from Xinwen the thermal coal rice has dropped 35% (see http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60. However the JORC resource at Emerald has been increased significantly which to me implies the value for Emerald should be similar. Maybe the Adani report is refering to Emerald and not Galilee??

Also, If you listen to the limelight piece http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/th...pup=true&wl=76 Justin Peters appologises for the delay in the coal sale but implies it has added AUD 1 billion to the sale price so has been justified.

Reading between those lines it would suggest to me a final sale price for all 3 of AUD 2.5 billion (AUD 1.5 billion + 1 billion).... 

I just hope they sort things soon as these markets are incredibly skittish and very worrying to be sat in.

FYI: I am a long term Linc investor and have also increasd my holdings significantly in recent weeks.


----------



## basilio

That was certainly a cautious approach today to the twilight zone.

After a first rush basically the  sellers kept up with any one who wanted to buy. I wouldn't have thought now was the time to sell Linc shares.

I feel surprised but 2 years of missed deadlines on coal sales has obviously burnt many, many people.


----------



## Mickel

luckypaul said:


> Any news that moves the share price positively has got to be good but I am dubious about this one. The Adani sale price reported is $1 billion (which like you guys I assume is USD so AUD 1.1349 billion) for Galilee.
> 
> Back in Sep 2008,  Linc were offered AUD 1.5 billion for Emerald which is the mid size of the 3 tenements for sale (taken from http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-22.pdf). Galilee is considerably larger than Emerald (like more than 9x in terms of pure tonnage):-
> 
> Galilee:                    7.8 Billion Tonnes
> Emerald (Teresa):     852 Million Tonnes Inferred
> Pentland:                266 Million Tonnes Inferred
> 
> Since September 2008 and the original offer from Xinwen the thermal coal rice has dropped 35% (see http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60. However the JORC resource at Emerald has been increased significantly which to me implies the value for Emerald should be similar. *Maybe the Adani report is refering to Emerald and not Galilee??*
> 
> Also, If you listen to the limelight piece http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/th...pup=true&wl=76 Justin Peters appologises for the delay in the coal sale but implies it has added AUD 1 billion to the sale price so has been justified.
> 
> Reading between those lines it would suggest to me a final sale price for all 3 of AUD 2.5 billion (AUD 1.5 billion + 1 billion)....
> 
> I just hope they sort things soon as these markets are incredibly skittish and very worrying to be sat in.
> 
> FYI: I am a long term Linc investor and have also increasd my holdings significantly in recent weeks.




From post #1226 above-
 "Linc said last month that it had received a number of "written indicative" offers for all three coal properties: Emerald, Galilee and Pentland.

Bond didn't provide more details on the progress of the discussions,* although he did confirm that Adani is interested in the Galilee block.*

Negotiations with other parties are continuing over the other two blocks, he said.

Last November, Linc said the Galilee block could contain 7.8 billion metric tons of thermal coal. Emerald contains a mix of thermal and semi-soft coking coal and the smallest asset, Pentland, contains thermal coal."

So it is definitely the Galilee block that Adani is looking at. That is why I am surprised that the S/P is only US$1 Billion.


----------



## basilio

> So it is definitely the Galilee block that Adani is looking at. That is why I am surprised that the S/P is only US$1 Billion.




Pure speculation of course but I wonder if Linc will take a tonnage royalty from sale of the Galilee block ? They could decide to take a somewhat lower price, insist on a substantial deposit and payment of the rest of the funds quickly and then ask for an ongoing royalty to compensate for the lower initial price. After all Linc's prime interest is get cash quickly to  kick off the rest of the projects.


----------



## mexican

1 billion is a pretty good price.
The Galilee basin is years off producing as there is no infrastructure in place.
Rail, new expansion at Abbot Point and so on. Massive, massive project!
Teresa is near existing infrastructure and has semi soft coke. So still very attractive!


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Pure speculation of course but I wonder if Linc will take a tonnage royalty from sale of the Galilee block ? They could decide to take a somewhat lower price, insist on a substantial deposit and payment of the rest of the funds quickly and then ask for an ongoing royalty to compensate for the lower initial price. After all Linc's prime interest is get cash quickly to  kick off the rest of the projects.




That is a real possibility, Basilio. I recall that LNC mentioned that they may do that with the smaller Richmond block, and considering the huge infrastructure expenditure required to get the coal shipped out, it makes sense and could be a deal maker. It also could satisify P Bond's determination to obtain full value from the sale of assets.


----------



## Mickel

Trading halt on CXY. Here is the request to the ASX-

"Trading Halt Request
Cougar Energy Limited (ASX code: CXY) hereby requests a trading halt be placed on its quoted fully
paid ordinary shares effective immediately, pursuant to listing rule 17.1.
The Company has received an order from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource
Management (DERM) to keep the Company’s pilot Underground Coal Gasification plant near Kingaroy
closed until the Queensland Government is assured that groundwater resources are protected.
The Company expects the trading halt to last until the earlier of an announcement by the Company or
the commencement of normal trading on 20 July 2010.
The Company is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted."

This reinforces what LNC's Justyn Peters stated in his Limelight address in Melbourne on June 4- that only LNC has mastered the drilling, burning and extinguishing the burn, and ground water issues, among the UCG operators in Australia.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/the-power-of-underground-coal-gasification?popup=true&wl=76


----------



## basilio

> This reinforces what LNC's Justyn Peters stated in his Limelight address in Melbourne on June 4- that only LNC has mastered the drilling, burning and extinguishing the burn, and ground water issues, among the UCG operators in Australia.




I'm wondering about this statement Michel. Certainly LNC has mastered the drilling and burning issues. I'm wondering however if the  potential to pollute groundwater is still an issue. If it is (or believed to be a possibility) is there a risk that the Chinchilla plant will also be asked to close down as precautionary measure ?  Is there some fundamental difference between the geologies of the two areas or the methodologies or of the UCG process LNC is using versus CXY/CNX ?


----------



## Calliope

ABC News;


> *Gas trial shut down over chemical concerns*
> 
> The viability of underground gas production is being questioned with a pilot project in Queensland's South Burnett region ordered to shut down.
> 
> Cougar Energy is testing whether it can extract gas by burning coal seams underground at a plant near Kingaroy.
> 
> But the Environment and Resource Management Department says the company has reported traces of carcinogenic chemicals in tests on monitoring bores.
> 
> Department director-general John Bradley says farmers near the site are being asked not to use bores until further tests prove there is no more contamination.
> 
> "There is no risk to Kingaroy's town drinking water supply," he said.
> 
> Mr Bradley says contaminated water leaked into a creek at Carbon Energy's trial site in Chinchilla, while Linc Energy has reported high salt levels in water near their site on the Western Downs region.
> 
> All three companies have been ordered to review the environmental impact of trials.




The environmentalists will never let this go away, especially when they have the support of the landowners. This is one area where Labor is prepared to kowtow to the Greens.


----------



## pointr

It occurrs to me that burning coal underground in an enclosed situation would have to have similarities to coke production. The 2 chemicals mentioned in the recent news reports are also by products of coke ovens. For many years there were concerns from the lay community about cancer risks at Port Kemblas steelworks coke-ovens, I dont know if this was ever backed up by objective research. A have a friend who worked in an industry where benzene was used, he now suffers from a bone marrow condition, one common name of which is 'smouldering leukaemia'. This UCG industry industry has a battle in front of it, possibly justified as a result of these test bore water contamination.


----------



## basilio

The issue of ground water contamination has always been recognised. In fact it was one of the problems encountered in UCG experiments in America in the 70's.

LNC's website has some excellent information on what can happen and how ground water could be monitored and protected. It remains to be seen how effectively this has been done to date and if there are significant risks in the CXY/CNX/LNC operations. It looks as if all three sites have reported issues and are being asked to review their environmental controls.

This is still a fledgling industry. That means the skills may still not be there to properly run the drilling, burning , gas extraction. It also means the industry won't have the clout of the traditional oil and gas giants who could probably bring more pressure to bear on governments in similar circumstances.

From LNCs view they must demonstrate that

a) There will not be projects in areas that might pollute important underground water supplies.

b) They can demonstrate the ability to make sure there is  minimal pollution of any underground water they do use.

Unfortunately there is also a possibility that regulators might decide to  hold up the whole industry on the basis of poor practices by a couple of participants. 

Of course if we were cynical LNC and co could simply start up operations in countries that are just not as careful about contaminating water supplies.


----------



## mexican

OOOOP'S. Sorry about that, here is the correct sample!


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100716/pdf/31rcm91dgm7jpy.pdf


Very professional!


----------



## Calliope

mexican said:


> OOOOP'S. Sorry about that, here is the correct sample!
> 
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100716/pdf/31rcm91dgm7jpy.pdf
> 
> 
> Very professional!




When the environmentalists have Cougar, Carbon Energy and Linc in their sights they are not going to lets facts stand in their way.


----------



## Mickel

There are a number of points to this drama with Cougar Energy-

1. As previously mentioned, there was an incorrect test result at Cougar and there is no contamination- refer link on previous post.

2.Carbon Energy have stated to ASX that the so called contamination at their site was only a small amount of surface water which was immediately cleaned and didn't affect any groundwater.

3 LNC in their ASX statement confirmed that "exceedance of salt levels" in their tests is consistant with regional salinity and not associated  with their UCG operations. http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-228.pdf

4. LNC has been the leader in monitoring groundwater and last month published a paper on it on their website- http://www.lincenergy.com.au/mediacoverage.php

5. The unfortunate error by the independant tests at Cougar has given the Greens an opportunity to blast all UCG operations and call for them all to be closed down. Their claims are now shown to be baseless.


----------



## Mickel

This is the link to the Dept of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) media release on the Cougar Energy shutdown-
http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/07/kingaroy-plant-closed.html


----------



## Calliope

UGL companies have many enemies and very few friends in Queensland. That's the reason Linc moved its main activities to SA.

With the big coal seam gas companies, AGForce, the environmentalists, the media and a very weak government all conspiring against them their future is bleak. There is no point in whistling in the dark.



> The gas industry yesterday said it had also been trying to rid the state of UCG operators for years because it did not want to be associated with them because they were not environmentally sustainable. AgForce has also made similar pleas




http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...on-near-kingaroy/story-e6freoof-1225892976986


----------



## skivvy

What is the feeling amongst linc shareholders, is this DERM action going to snowball and affect lincs pilot plant in Chinchilla??

Technical support is currently being tested at 1.24, a break down from here is possible to the next support level.  

Eagerly awaiting any news of the sale of the Emerald or Galailee tenament.


----------



## InvestaNoob

skivvy said:


> What is the feeling amongst linc shareholders, is this DERM action going to snowball and affect lincs pilot plant in Chinchilla??
> 
> Technical support is currently being tested at 1.24, a break down from here is possible to the next support level.
> 
> Eagerly awaiting any news of the sale of the Emerald or Galailee tenament.





Merely a bump in the road. LNC is more advanced with their drilling and groundwater management. If QLD govt closed the site, it would only be temporary pending further testing which wouldn't take long to do.


----------



## mexican

What a surprise!


http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...rgy-welcomes-test-results-20100718-10fsc.html


----------



## Miner

Published in ASX on Friday
Not sure if some one already posted it
Basically Cougar Energy shutdown is not affecting LNC which is a good news
DNH


----------



## So_Cynical

Miner said:


> Published in ASX on Friday
> Not sure if some one already posted it
> Basically Cougar Energy shutdown is not affecting LNC which is a good news
> DNH




Oh com on Miner...you really think the Cougar shutdown issues will have no affect on the industry as a whole/Linc  i was surprised LNC didn't get hammered on Friday and will be surprised if the SP holds up this week.


----------



## Mickel

Here are the latest media releases from Dept of Environment and Resource Management( DERM)-

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/07/kingaroy-test-results.html

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/07/further-kingaroy-results.html

and LNC ASX statement this morning-

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100719/pdf/01080109.pdf

an extract of which is-

*Linc Energy confirms that the UCG operations which it conducts utilise proprietary
techniques significantly different from those employed by Ergo Exergy and Cougar
Energy.
*Linc Energy notes that the groundwater monitoring data which it has collected at
Chinchilla and supplied to DERM over the past 11 years evidences the fact that
there has been no impact on the quality of the groundwater of adjacent property
holders.
Linc Energy continues to confirm that it remains in compliance with all groundwater
monitoring and reporting requirements set out in the Environmental Authority for
UCG at its Chinchilla demonstration facility.
“The investigation being undertaken by DERM in Kingaroy is specific to Cougar
Energy and the manner in which it conducts its UCG operations with Ergo Exergy.
Whilst we have *communicated our concerns to DERM about their decision to include
reference to operations conducted in a different manner by unrelated companies in
their initial media release about this matter, *we will continue to work proactively with
the Queensland government regulators in all respects”, said Linc Energy’s CEO
Peter Bond.

Says it all about the Qld Government.


----------



## basilio

Well LNC is on the go.  After the early trade cleared out the those who were still concerned about the cougar water contamination  scare it has gone for a quick ride. 

Thanks heavens there is some sanity in this marketplace.


----------



## Jonathan111

*Pointdexter says: *

_"Most farmers drive cars and farm machinery that exposes them to higher levels of benzene and toluene than anything UCG 300m underground might. the same goes for farmers who also smoke or use slow combustion fireplaces or conduct open air burnoffs like for sugar cane or land clearing."_

*Pointdexter goes on to say: *

_"There have been four trial UCG burns in Australia to date, with three still in progress.
1. Chinchilla 1999-2002 NO groundwater pollution
2. Chinchilla 2008 - pres NO groundwater pollution
3. Bloodwood Creek 2009 - pres No groundwater pollution
4. Kingaroy 2010 - pres No groundwater pollution
...

So, in an aggregate of seven years of Australian UCG trials there has been no groundwater pollution reported despite a punishing sampling and testing regime.

In seven years there has been at least one independent laboratory reporting error ... and that incorrect result related to drinking quality ... then we have last week's event.

However, every litre of COAL SEAM GAS drainage dewatering brings to the suface water that is unfit for drinking ... and probably 100's of millions or litres have been drained so far and gas production has barely even begun. 

Where is the balance in regulatory oversight?

Dex"_

Thankyou Pony!


*Psi81 wrote:* 

_"Just look at what happened here. Someone at DERM:

- Ignored the doubt over the validity of the test
- Stood down a DERM employee
- Ordered Cougar to halt their project
- Ordered Carbon and Linc to review their projects, despite comprehensive testing programs already in place (what could more testing possibly achieve?)
- Started a media circus, throwing around terms like "carcinogenic water" and that the opposition groups were "vindicated""_


"_Benzene levels in the air at petrol stations are almost SIX HUNDRED TIMES higher than Australian drinking water guidelines!

Petrol stations must be shut down immediately, starting with all petrol stations in Kingaroy, where the locals have shown they will not tolerate this sort of thing!

Seriously, though, this indicates what a witch hunt it has all been, and what a media circus. Who cares about benzene levels at the limit of detection when you are exposed to MUCH higher benzene concentrations every time you fill up your car, or even just walk down the street?_"


*realcoolone wrote:*

_"I would be happy to take the fight to these bungling backstabbing labor ..."_


----------



## basilio

> Pointdexter says:
> 
> "Most farmers drive cars and farm machinery that exposes them to higher levels of benzene and toluene than anything UCG 300m underground might. the same goes for farmers who also smoke or use slow combustion fireplaces or conduct open air burnoffs like for sugar cane or land clearing."




Very interesting Jonathan. Who /where is Pointdexter ? Be interesting to see his background.....................


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Very interesting Jonathan. Who /where is Pointdexter ? Be interesting to see his background.....................




I think he/she may be from that hot wire forum.

I do agree that there is no balance in regulatory oversight between CSG and UCG. The Coal Seam Gas people seem to have the inside running with the Qld Govt.


----------



## Calliope

Mickel said:


> I think he/she may be from that hot wire forum.
> 
> I do agree that there is no balance in regulatory oversight between CSG and UCG. The Coal Seam Gas people seem to have the inside running with the Qld Govt.




Any investment, whose future is dependent on the whims of a Labor government needing Green's preferences for election, is very risky Indeed.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...ification-sector/story-e6frg6nf-1225894283350



> But the Bligh government also widened its inquiry to look at the entire UCG sector, with Resources Minister Stephen Robertson claiming that Cougar's problems have raised concerns for the whole sector.
> 
> Besides Cougar Energy, the Queensland government has also licensed Linc Energy and Carbon Energy to undertake underground coal gasification trials, and Linc Energy chief Peter Bond told The Australian that his company's processes were completely different to those used by Cougar and he resented being put in the same category.
> 
> But Mr Robertson told representatives of all three companies, plus the Queensland Resources Council, that while the circumstances of each project would be evaluated individually, Cougar Energy's contamination incidents raised concerns for the whole sector.






> The three projects are due to be formally evaluated at the end of a supervised trial in 2012.




Who is going to keep their nerve that long? There are better pickings elsewhere.


----------



## namrog

I don't understand why people have come to the conclusion that labor are anti UCG ? and trying to stand in the way..??
I hold all three of these companies, Linc since the beginning and Martin Ferguson in particular has been very supportive of what linc are trying to achieve.......
If state labor are the problem, surely fed lab would step in and tell em to back off as Ferguson himself recognises  Australias growing dependance on foreign oil ...


----------



## Calliope

namrog said:


> I don't understand why people have come to the conclusion that labor are anti UCG ? and trying to stand in the way..??
> I hold all three of these companies, Linc since the beginning and Martin Ferguson in particular has been very supportive of what linc are trying to achieve.......
> If state labor are the problem, surely fed lab would step in and tell em to back off as Ferguson himself recognises  Australias growing dependance on foreign oil ...




Perhaps this will make it clear to you. By the way Greens Senator Milne is one of the most vocal haters of UCG. Bligh on the other hand approves of the giant coal seam gas miners (jobs, jobs, jobs), but is quite happy to abandon the UCG minnows.

[QUOTE*]Greens pledge to back farmers against encroaching miners*
Tuesday, 20/07/2010
Greens Leader Bob Brown says rural Australia should not fear the preference deal his party has done with Labor.
The deal will mean Labor directs its Senate preferences to the Australian Greens ahead of all other parties at the election.
Mr Brown says big business has too much power over the major parties, and the Greens will be a strong voice for rural Australia in the next Parliament.
He says the Greens will provide farmers with a voice against coal seam gas mining and will move to improve biosecurity measures.[/QUOTE]

http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201007/s2958855.htm


----------



## basilio

> Who is going to keep their nerve that long? There are better pickings elsewhere.




I think that LNC offers a far broader perspective than simply USG in Queensland. It has extensive holdings in America and interest in projects from Vietnam to other Asian countries.

It has already decided to develop its main UCG and GTL plant in South Australia and I understand they are getting a much warmer reception there. (It may also be that the agricultural community on SA is not as large in the area there are developing and the super size industrial development is far more welcomed.)

It has a very interesting Alkaline Fuel cell project which offers  totally carbon free electricity at very competitive costs. That should turn a few heads in the green movement.

And finally they seem to on the verge of turning three  coal tenements into 1.5 - 2 billion dollars. That is worth putting into the picture.

There is a lot more to LINC than  just a single UCG plant and power station. As I mentioned earlier if Australia turned up it's nose at the technology it would not be surprising to see them immediately establish  plants in their overseas interests.


----------



## basilio

Came across a very recent report on the Linc- AFC fuel cell project.

I don't think think this technology should be underestimated. It is a very elegant, *cheap* way to produce  virtually carbon free electricity from stranded coal. 

From looking at the costs of the AFC fuel cell it seems many times cheaper than , say, the local CFU unit.  The technology is just nowhere near as complicated or expensive to produce or service. Which of course makes the final electricity produced far more cost competitive.

*Successful trial of underground coal gasification and fuel cells
Fuel Cells, July  14  2010 (The Hydrogen Journal)
*
- Linc Energy Ltd of Australia, together with AFC Energy of the UK, have completed a successful trial in Queensland, Australia, gasifying coal underground to make coal gas (hydrogen, methane, carbon monoxide and ethylene) and putting it through a fuel cell to make electricity. 

..."What is so remarkable about this trial is that the fuel cell configuration was able to produce reliable and efficient clean electricity from a much lower percentage hydrogen content gas than other fuel cells require," Linc Energy says. 
"This effectively demonstrates that combining the AFC Fuel Cell technology with hydrogen from Linc Energy's syngas produced from the world-class UCG at Chinchilla is a feasible route to achieve the ultimate in clean electricity from stranded, sub-economic coal, of which there is an abundance in the world."

http://www.h2journal.com/displaynews.php?NewsID=482

AFC Fuel cell background. Why it's such good value
http://www.afcenergy.com/technology/alkaline-fuel-cell-system-background/

Where AFC and LNC are going with this technology(well worth a read...)

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/AFC-Energy-plc-AFC-L-Allenby-Capital-7-July-20103.pdf


----------



## Mickel

This is part of The Greens policy-

*AUSTRALIAN GREENS POLICY*: Water and Inland Aquatic Environment (cont’d)
www.greens.org.au/about/policies

Page 3 of 3

*28 ensure that Australian drinking water supplies consistently meet or exceed WHO and National Drinking Water standards, and that catchment water quality is regularly monitored and publicly reported.
*
The current Cougar Energy trial site has complied with this policy 100% so there should be no need for them to call for their site to be abandoned.

LNC has also complied with this policy 100%.


----------



## basilio

LNC is on the move again. $1.42 and strong buying pressure.  One would have to think (cross fingers) that by the close of business  this Friday there would be a halt to trading to make an announcement.

Let's go!!


----------



## basilio

$1.50 and still on a vertical climb with strong buying. Have to wonder when ASX puts out a please explain.


----------



## ChrisV80

I am assuming the latest hike in share price is due to this news story and the speculation that they are getting ready to aquire coal assets in Australia? 

bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-20/adani-enterprises-plans-to-raise-as-much-as-850-million-selling-stock.html


----------



## Mickel

ChrisV80 said:


> I am assuming the latest hike in share price is due to this news story and the speculation that they are getting ready to aquire coal assets in Australia?
> 
> bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-20/adani-enterprises-plans-to-raise-as-much-as-850-million-selling-stock.html




The full link for this is -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ise-as-much-as-850-million-selling-stock.html

LNC S/P closed at $1.535 today.


----------



## Mickel

According to a later article from Bloomberg (about an hour ago) Adani have raised $US 850 Million after an institutional offering was oversubscribed to $US 1.2Billion. No official confirmation yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...in-india-s-biggest-sale-to-funds-in-2010.html


----------



## Slipperz

Mickel said:


> According to a later article from Bloomberg (about an hour ago) Adani have raised $US 850 Million after an institutional offering was oversubscribed to $US 1.2Billion. No official confirmation yet.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...in-india-s-biggest-sale-to-funds-in-2010.html




I think this time the sale is going to be finalised.

No word from LNC but the Adani ship is leaking...

=DJ Adani Enterprises In Talks To Buy Linc Energy Coal Mine - Source21/07/2010 08:54PM AEST 
By Eric Yep 

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 


MUMBAI (Dow Jones)--Adani Enterprises Ltd. (512599.BY) is expected to conclude a deal by early August with Australia's Linc Energy Ltd. (LNCGY) to acquire a coal mine in Queensland state, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said Wednesday. 

"Something concrete should come out by early August if Adani gets it," the person who declined to be named told Dow Jones Newswires. 

Adani is in talks "which are still in progress," said the person, adding that Linc has also received offers from other companies. 

Linc Energy Chief Executive Peter Bond last week confirmed it was talking to Adani about selling its Galilee thermal coal property in Queensland state, recently valued by Linc at over A$1 billion. 


-By Eric Yep, Dow Jones Newswires; 91-22-6145-6110; eric.yep@dowjones.com 



Either there is a last minute bidding war in progress with the other parties or they are haggling over final price.

With that huge capital raising at their disposal Adani looks to be the goods.

LNC should see some strong upwards momentum in coming days.

The key question is how much the sale will be for and how much goodwill the market will factor into lincs technology regarding it's shareprice after the sale goes through.

I'm leaning towards this sale being practically a done deal but of course nothing is certain until the ink is on the contract.

After months and months of waiting for this sale and taking losses on LNC over the past couple of years I'll be more than happy to see it finally happen.

Holding with some anticipation!


----------



## basilio

> I think this time the sale is going to be finalised.
> 
> No word from LNC but the Adani ship is leaking...




It does look encouraging - particularly if there is another company also making an offer. Nothing like competition to create a keen environment. I think the critical point is India's desire for energy security. They seem to running short of coal and in that context the sale seems more urgent.
*
Still want to see the cheques in the bank and cleared ASAP*. The rest of the market looks too uncertain to hang around. 

As far as the value of LNC post sale? If the sale goes for $1b that should be around $2 a share for the cash alone. If the rest of the coal assets, the technology, the overseas coal leases and whatever arn't worth $2 a share (roughly another $1billion ) we're in the wrong game.

Another key factor is that currently LNC lacks institutional shareholders. If/when the sale goes through all the bodies that hold index linked funds will need to reevaluate the company and probably re weight their portfolios. That should put more meat on the share price.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> As far as the value of LNC post sale? If the sale goes for $1b that should be around $2 a share for the cash alone. If the rest of the coal assets, the technology, the overseas coal leases and whatever arn't worth $2 a share (roughly another $1billion ) we're in the wrong game.
> 
> Another key factor is that currently LNC lacks institutional shareholders. If/when the sale goes through all the bodies that hold index linked funds will need to reevaluate the company and probably re weight their portfolios. That should put more meat on the share price.




Agree 100 % with the above.

Announcement this morning - LNC's response to an ASX speeding ticket-
"Nothing is signed"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100722/pdf/31rfyp02hhp790.pdf


----------



## Slipperz

Mickel said:


> Agree 100 % with the above.
> 
> Announcement this morning - LNC's response to an ASX speeding ticket-
> "Nothing is signed"
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100722/pdf/31rfyp02hhp790.pdf





I think they forgot to add one word....yet :

Damn LNC is a tricky stock to trade.

I almost set a stop last night and whaddayaknow it plunged down 7 cents on open and rebounded straight back up.

I have been stung any number of times trading LNC. 

Anyways got my trailing stop far enough back not to get hit on daily fluctuations but to cover the hopefully very unlikely third strike out deal failure would would really send LNC off the cliff.

Hopefully Mr Adani or someone is going to show us the money!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA


----------



## skivvy

sold out of LNC yesterday at 1.535.  Missed the opportunity to buy back in today at 1.47.  Looking to get back in tomorrow on a dip but with the dow futures up and the spi up, that opportunity may have passed.  The speculation driving this stock is crazy and it is a great stock to trade the swings at the moment if you can keep up.  If no news comes tomorrow on the sale, the dip may come. 
 I am really struggling with getting back in to LNC or entering AUT, they both have announcements coming in the next week or two which will be significant for both price levels???  Maybe long on both.......

Any thoughts are gladly welcomed?


----------



## basilio

> Quote:
> Originally Posted by Mickel View Post
> Agree 100 % with the above.
> 
> Announcement this morning - LNC's response to an ASX speeding ticket-
> "Nothing is signed"
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2010072...yp02hhp790.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think they forgot to add one word....yet
Click to expand...



It's a given for LNC to say nothing has been signed. I don't know if this is accidental or "accidentally on purpose" but the unfolding of the final stages of this sale appears  to :

1) Offer an excellent opportunity for  investors (or speculators) to pile in during this twilight zone between sealed and delivered.

2) Create a useful squeeze on all the parties interested in the tenements to put in their best serious bids

Unlike the previous sales attempts which only involved negotiations with one interested party this time there seems to be three. That should give LNC the upper hand.

 ____________________________________________________

Another reflection. Earlier on I hypothesized on the value of LNC post sale. I suggested $2Billion or $4.00 a share seemed on the money.

I don't resile from this but thinking about other shares *there is absolutely no need for the market to take a rational, intelligent view of assets when setting share prices.* I can remember at least a few mining shares last year which sold at a steep discount to actual cash in the bank as well as billions of tons of product. If the market goes sour LNC's SP can go south with the rest of them. Doesn't make them accurate - just the current perception.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Another reflection. Earlier on I hypothesized on the value of LNC post sale. I suggested $2Billion or $4.00 a share seemed on the money.
> 
> I don't resile from this but thinking about other shares *there is absolutely no need for the market to take a rational, intelligent view of assets when setting share prices.* I can remember at least a few mining shares last year which sold at a steep discount to actual cash in the bank as well as billions of tons of product. If the market goes sour LNC's SP can go south with the rest of them. Doesn't make them accurate - just the current perception.




Basilio, I agreed with your earlier comment 100% but I was thinking that could be a minimum as-

1. Galilee Sale/P of US$1B I consider a minimum with plenty of upside

2."If the rest of the coal assets, the technology, the overseas coal leases and whatever arn't worth $2 a share (roughly another $1billion )" I consider a minimum. The AFC Fuel Cell alone could be worth $2 a share, if they release profitability estimates in a similar format to the GTL ones mentioned below.

3. As previously mentioned, the lack of Institutional Investors (who need to buy when the coal sale is announced and LNC moves into the top 100 ASX list) should power up the scramble for scrip. (Pun intended).

So the current perception could just as easily be the other way and a S/P of $10+ is not impossible in the immediate aftermath of the Coal sale particularily if we get an analyst update on the GTL profitability on this-

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-18.pdf

which was done when the diesel first flowed from the demo plant. There are many improvements to the process since Oct 08.


----------



## luckypaul

> So the current perception could just as easily be the other way and a S/P of $10+ is not impossible in the immediate aftermath of the Coal sale particularily if we get an analyst update on the GTL profitability on this-
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-18.pdf
> 
> which was done when the diesel first flowed from the demo plant. There are many improvements to the process since Oct 08.



 Mickel

You are so right Mickel! I attempted to list all of the improvements/achievements Linc has made since that October 2008 anaylyst report (so not included in BBY's share valuation of $7.50 per share and their DCF valuation of $14.95 per share) and it is absolutely amazing! Take a look:-


Purchased huge coal area in Wyoming (governor wants to have first commercial UCG/GTL plant), 
Purchased huge coal/gas area in Alaska - first gas well drilling results due imminent, 
Purchased more coal tenements in Queensland for further coal exploration, 
Signed deal with AFC Energy for exclusive use of hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricty/water from syngas - and proven it works, 
Established a world class GTL lab at Chinchilla, 
Increased the estimated diesel produced from 1 tonnes coal by 30% to 1.3 barrels, 
JORC qualified huge stranded coal reserves in south Australia with enough coal for a 20,000 barrel a day plant for 60++ yrs, 
Oil 'shows' in their Arckaringa basin (potential oil find) 
Achieved successful oxygen injection in Chinchilla
Achieved significant increased distances between the ignition and extraction wells (reducing cost)
Is in the ASX 200 but not yet included in many institutional investors funds because Linc did not have the capital to achieve its objectives.
A potential 25-30% price recovery if Australian election results put the opposition in power and the 40% mining profits tax disappears for coal/gas companies

Also remember that a lot of the above announcements above did not add to the SP as Linc was not able to progress with their objectives until they had the financing established (i.e. the coal sale sorted).

On top of that I still personally believe the total value achieved from all 3 coal areas is more likely to be closer to AUD 2.5 billion as I cannot see Emerald being worth less than the 1.5 billion offered in Sept 08, so that plus Adani's AUD$1.3 billion (USD 1 billion) for Galilee. Remember coal is in absolutely huge demand now:- http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abO6yEGou2JA

It is also true that UCG is not yet "out there" in the public domain so Linc is not yet getting the investor interest it deserves. I watched a CNBC show called "Crude Reality" (sorry I cannot find the link) which listed alternatives to deep sea oil drilling. These consisted of Canadian Oil Sands and Bio Oil (either algae to make fuel or Ethanol from crops). UCG is so much better than these alternatives in terms of cost (less than half the cost of producing oil from oil sands), environmental impact etc plus of course enough stranded coal in the US to provide oil independance for them paranoid chaps and so many other  countries!! Would the US keep messing in the Middle East if they didn't need the oil?? Maybe Linc could potentially create world peace! 

I think all us Linc investors could actually positively impact the "UCG situation" by writing to politicians, newspapers and every forum that would get the UCG option in the public domain! Not only would that raise the UCG profile for the betterment of the planet but it would also send the Linc SP (rightfully) through the roof!  

This has got to be the most undervalued stock with the most 'world changing' potential in the ASX 200! 

Note: I am a long term holder and have recently doubled my holding as this is an amazing once in a lifetime opportunity


----------



## basilio

Isn't it fascinating how one's focus on a situation can fire up imagination and strong beliefs in the seeming inevitability of a particular outcome.

I believe that LNC does have an excellent product and could go exceptionally well. But the funny thing is there are probably a score, perhaps a hundred or even a thousand other companies with similar plausible stories. Great technologies and ideas. Visionary hard driving entrepreneurs. Really effective PR people. Excellent political connections.... Perhaps a dash of luck.....

I written earlier that in my view it is not necessarily the best technology, the brightest talent or the best plans that end up being the huge financial successes. In a number of cases it is something as mundane as having the political clout to have your company favored while your competitors find themselves in all sorts of problems. It can be having the muscle, impudence and legal capacity to steal a competitors product and march into the market place first.

Does any of this sound familiar ?  In the real world how realistic is it for the current behemoths of the energy industry to allow a little upstart like LNC to suddenly become a key supplier of energy and making the billions of dollars *they* believe* they* should be making ? 

I certainly don't want to decry the incredible opportunities LNC offers and the  chance that there will be a good return. But I think in evaluating what value the broader market place puts on the share the bigger picture issues of the power of current incumbency in the energy industry should not be underestimated. I believe part of the way LNC will be successful will be creating new partnerships that will recognize and support the company and the UCG/GTL process *to ensure it does not suffer the fate of other disruptive technology entrepreneurs*

Cheers


----------



## basilio

Isn't it fascinating how one's focus on a situation can fire up imagination and strong beliefs in the seeming inevitability of a particular outcome.


----------



## Mickel

Basilio, you make some valid points that are a risk to LNC's success.

However, I believe the combination of the following points mitigates that risk to a great extent-

1. LNC's expertise and record in managing environmental risks.
2. Producing cheap power and fuels in an environmental friendly manner.
3. Astute management with a long term vision and control of the company where a hostile takeover is very unlikely.
4.World class technical staff and partners, with tight control of their IP because of having their own lab at Chinchilla.
5. World class assets.
6. A spread of assets both within and outside Australia that prevents one Government from derailing their plans.

and last but not least-

7. A world where demand for power and fuels is increasing strongly.

Luckypaul, your point 6. is actually 1.5 barrels per tonne of coal (which is even better)

refer the second slide in Justyn Peters Limelight presentation on 4 June

http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/the-power-of-underground-coal-gasification?popup=true&wl=76


----------



## Mickel

Regarding my previous post where I mentioned 1 tonne of coal producing 1.5 barrels of diesel, the June quarterly report announcement today states 1.7 barrels-

*UCG and GTL at the Chinchilla Demonstration Facility*

In June, Linc Energy reported that its UCG Generator 4 has operated for 120 continuous days (and is still operating today), with a total of 19 world-firsts achieved to date. The introduction of the coil tubing unit to provide faster down-hole drilling was cited as one of the world-firsts in UCG technology.
The Gas to Liquids (GTL) conceptual design study for the proposed South Australian commercial facility was completed with Aker Solutions at the end of February, on time and within budget. The study confirmed Linc Energy’s business case for a commercial scale UCG to GTL complex. From the study, it was determined that per tonne of coal (on a dry ash free basis) that 1.7 barrels of liquid fuel and 1.9 (converted barrel equivalent) of electricity could be produced. Linc Energy’s focus is now to optimise capital efficiency through the modularisation of plant equipment to reduce construction costs. Modifications to the GTL equipment and processes have been successful.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100726/pdf/01081671.pdf


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> The Indian enterprise "Adani Group" is the company rumored to be buying Linc's Galilee coal deposit.
> 
> They have also recently been given the rights to assess the viability of new coal export infrastructure at Dudgeon Point near Mackay (adjacent to Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay coal ports) by a Qld Govt owned authority.
> 
> http://www.couriermail.com.au/busin...-queensland-coal/story-e6freqmx-1225890924715
> 
> Other stories in the Indian Economic Times report that Adani have a private port on the west coast of India and are looking to establish another port on the east coast of India. Also that they are developing a power station.
> 
> http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/quickiearticleshow/4829236.cms
> 
> http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5942536.cms
> 
> Looks like they are setting up a fully intregrated enterprise.




An article in The Australian today summarizes my post of 15 July but also mentions their interest in a coal deposit near Emerald- 

"The Australian has learnt that the company is also interested in buying another mining tenement near Emerald in central Queensland."

Perhaps Teresa ????

The article continues-
"Linc Energy chief Peter Bond said Adani was very focused on Australia, and had contacted Linc after the Australian company sought expressions of interest in buying its coal deposits in Queensland. "We have been through long machinations with them, but they're certainly very serious about getting into Australia," he said.

"They need coal for their power stations, but they're also a transport group, so it's a complete chain they're looking at."

Last week, India's Economic Times newspaper reported Adani was close to buying one of three coal tenements that Linc had been trying to sell since 2008. According to the report, the coal block in question in the Galilee Basin has reserves of 7-8 billion tonnes, and the report quoted a source close to the deal as saying it would be finalised by the middle of next month.

*Linc Energy said yesterday it had found buyers for three assets it has been seeking to sell, but would not provide further details.
*
Last week, shares in Linc surged from $1.25 to $1.56. This was despite the fact that its core mining activity was underground coal gasification, and all companies in this sector had been affected by a government crackdown following the leak of poison from a pilot plant owned by Cougar Energy at Kingaroy in southeast Queensland.

Events in Mumbai proved more important than events in Kingaroy for Linc, which is based in Brisbane, but moving more of its operations to Adelaide. Adani is conducting an $850 million fund raising on the Indian Stock Exchange, and two market sources in Mumbai told Reuters that the company would use the proceeds mainly for buying coal-related assets.

"The Linc assets will be a very good strategic fit for Adani. It can use the reserves to expand its power projects in India as well as trade in the international market," said an analyst with a Mumbai brokerage.

Adani is run by 48-year-old Gautam Adani, a university drop-out who started his career sorting diamonds. He is now India's 10th richest man, with a personal fortune estimated by Forbes magazine at $US6.4bn ($7.1bn).

After running a diamond brokerage at the start of the 1980s he and his brother went into plastics, but their company really picked up during India's economic liberalisation program from the early 1990s. The Adani Group currently has an annual turnover of $US5.7bn, with a net profit in 2008-09 of $US196m. It has assets of $US3bn."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ports-coalfields/story-e6frg8zx-1225897218929

Hopefully a confirmed sale is very near.


----------



## Mickel

One of the final paragraphs in The Australian article mentioned in my previous post-
"India's economy is forecast to grow by 9.4 per cent this year and at similar rates for the next few years. To meet these figures the country will need coal. Since the GFC, India and China have increased their coal exports from Australia, with exports of *coking coal -- the main type used in power stations* -- to India, growing from 15 million tonnes in 2005-06 to 24 million tonnes in 2008-09."

appears to be incorrect.

My understanding is that coking coal is used mainly in steel mills and steaming coal is used in power stations. I note that LNC's Teresa tenement has 200M tonnes of coking coal so it is pertinent to the possible sale to Adani.

Agree/Disagree???


----------



## basilio

> My understanding is that coking coal is used mainly in steel mills and steaming coal is used in power stations.




Yeah. Mostly right. For everything you wanted to know about coal (and a bit more...) Does have a focus on Indian coal

http://steel.nic.in/Glossary-I.PDF


----------



## Slipperz

Consecutive intraday highs of 1.70 has me thinking it's our new resistance level.




Sure looks like the number to beat  at this stage


----------



## skivvy

Looks likely Slipperz, where is the support from here around 1.50?  Waiting on news is always risky as has been the case with NGE and SSN lately.  If the sale announcement doesnt come around soon then LNC may test some sort of support in the next few weeks?

Just my thoughts..............


----------



## Slipperz

Skivvy I think 1.70 and beyond is the number we are looking at right now.

If PB doesn't ink these deals there will be a catastrophic loss of confidence in LNC imho.

Look out below 



Having said that  with three written offers on the table we are looking good.

Holding on.....holding on


----------



## Mickel

More clarification on Cougar Energy incident. Now confirmed that one test was above the safe drinking water standard. Not sure when this test was conducted. This is from the DERM statement attached to the CXY announcement to the ASX today-

"All of the sampling carried out to date by both Cougar Energy and DERM indicates that benzene has only been detected in one bore (monitoring bore 37) at a maximum concentration of 2 parts per billion (above drinking water guideline of 1 ppb)."

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100728/pdf/01082567.pdf

So, we finally find out that there was one confirmed case of water pollution.

There is more on the DERM statement worth reading that is not on DERM's website yet.


----------



## basilio

Ok.  We don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves but it will be very interesting to see the path laid out by Peter Bond and Linc if/when the coal sales are finalised. We would hope they were imaginative, hard driving, inspirational and of course profitable.

One would assume that these plans are being worked out on the basis of various results of the sale but one expect a minimum  $1billion over 1-2 years.

So we would have a picture of a company with a well proven disruptive technology, a range of resource opportunities to put them into play, a skilled workforce (hopefully) and plenty of cash.  A very potent force and hopefully one that is recognized with more respect and share support than companies that don't tick all the boxes. 

Just the small matter of ticking the last boxes on this sale and clearing the cheques...


----------



## 57chev

Peter bond has had nearly 2 years to plan his forward movements post coal sale. With new oppertunities along the way, one would hope that it will be full steam ahead for production in what ever location or country. being a long term holder i have recently signifanctly increased my holding in this stock. After riding out original rise to $5 dolars plus then falling to below $1 (giving me time to increase holdings++) i hope that a sale can be announced shortly and the company moves forward. Obviously i believe the company has a massive potental, Bring on the coal sale..


----------



## Mickel

The good things to come out of the drawn out coal sale saga are the improvements to processes and new technology-

1. Drill hole distance expands from 30m to 500m (huge cost saving on OPEX).
2. Increase in diesel production from 1 BOO per tonne of coal to 1.7 BOO (again a huge increase to the bottom line).
3. The exclusive contract with AFC fuel cell technology (should prove to be very profitable).
4. The coil tubing drilling unit recently purchased (less drilling costs).

These improvements will not only result in less operating expenditure (OPEX) but also allow for saving of Capital Expenditure as stated by LNC in their recent quarterly report-

"The Gas to Liquids (GTL) conceptual design study for the proposed South Australian commercial facility was completed with Aker Solutions at the end of February, on time and within budget. The study confirmed Linc Energy’s business case for a commercial scale UCG to GTL complex. From the study, it was determined that per tonne of coal (on a dry ash free basis) that 1.7 barrels of liquid fuel and 1.9 (converted barrel equivalent) of electricity could be produced. *Linc Energy’s focus is now to optimise capital efficiency through the modularisation of plant equipment to reduce construction costs. *Modifications to the GTL equipment and processes have been successful."

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-231.pdf

Without the delay, the GTL plant would probably cost more to construct and to operate (although it would possibly be close to completion if it started  in the first half of 2009 as originally planned).


----------



## Slipperz

The Alaska deal is looking good.

Could be a nice little earner if they have a good find

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/39852/20100730/geopetro-resources-company-gpr-updates-status-of-alaska-project.htm


----------



## Slipperz

Woohooo it's a done deal!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/linc-adani-complete-their-coal-connection-20100801-111d7.html

Gonna be some jostling for positions today methinks.

Long suffering LNC holders are about to get the payday!


----------



## bennib0i

Slipperz said:


> Woohooo it's a done deal!
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/linc-adani-complete-their-coal-connection-20100801-111d7.html




Well done Mr. Bond.

Interesting start up to pre-opening price....well b interesting today.

After 2 years the deal has finally been secured.


----------



## Slipperz

Well the news from the LNC bunker is no deal.

Why are the shares still in a NR trading halt when the news has been released?


Unless there is more news forthcoming.....


----------



## basilio

Great "news" .. but not official. From the look of the pre-opening price  the markets believes it's a done deal ...but there is no official announcement from either party.

I think LINC has to suspend the shares prior to making a formal announcement.  Otherwise it will rightly getting a real kick in the bum.

But hey Lets celebrate !!


----------



## basilio

> Great "news" .. but not official. From the look of the pre-opening price the markets believes it's a done deal ...but there is no official announcement from either party.
> 
> I think LINC has to suspend the shares prior to making a formal announcement. Otherwise it will rightly getting a real kick in the bum



.
Well there goes* that * theory.!! LINC opens at $1.72 with seemingly no announcements (that I can see) Interestingly enough there seem to be some very large sale offers in the $1.70 + range. 

One would think that of all times this is one occasion an institution could buy with it's ears pinned back and  that selling too early would be a mistake. 

But the official announcement has not been made and the cheque has not been cleared.. So let's see how this plays out.


Price ($)	Quantity	No.
5 	 64,917 	  1.720 	  1 	    1.725 	         3,000 	1
7 	 35,850 	  1.715 	  2 	    1.730 	        73,702 	5
7 	 55,712 	  1.710 	  3 	    1.735 	       65,945 	5
7 	 89,229 	  1.705 	  4 	    1.740 	       54,212 	5
11 	 240,220 	  1.700 	  5 	    1.745    	      180,717 	8
1 	 3,313 	  1.695 	  6 	    1.750 	    302,300 	23
1 	 15,000 	  1.690 	  7 	    1.755 	    215,346 	4
1 	 3,000 	  1.685 	  8 	    1.760 	    368,700 	4
3 	  37,600 	  1.680 	  9 	    1.770 	      9,952 	3
1       2,750 	  1.670 	  10 	    1.780 	     28,800 	4


----------



## Slipperz

Resistance at 1.70 now broken.

A quarter million buyers there has it looking like our new support level.

Not interested in selling at this point.


----------



## basilio

More detailed information on the impending Adani purchase of LINC coal assets. 

http://www.optuszoo.com.au/news/174725/india-steps-up-with-1bn-coal-purchase.html


----------



## mexican

A close above 1.78 for me Slipperz. 1.78 has been a major resistance level in the past.

If Linc strike TCF of gas at Alaska...............pay dirt!
Good find with that article Slipperz.


----------



## Slipperz

mexican said:


> A close above 1.78 for me Slipperz. 1.78 has been a major resistance level in the past.
> 
> If Linc strike TCF of gas at Alaska...............pay dirt!
> Good find with that article Slipperz.




Indeed if LNC find  TCF worth of gas revenues on top of the coal sale it's a very rosy scenario indeed.

I think we're going to close in the mid eighties today. maybe even give 1.90 a crack.

All the reports are saying the deal is being signed tomorrow.

Then the market will respond to the number on the cheque.

Personally I've having a great day here on bank holiday watching the price tick up 

I have been waiting for this day for years, nice that it's finally here


----------



## basilio

Sellers seem  to be drying up. Can't understand why.

Will be interesting to see what happens if a couple of the bigger institutions decide that buying at $1.80 today is infinitely more profitable than waiting for the formal announcement tomorrow. There could be a couple of heroes in the wings...


----------



## Slipperz

basilio said:


> Sellers seem  to be drying up. Can't understand why.
> 
> Will be interesting to see what happens if a couple of the bigger institutions decide that buying at $1.80 today is infinitely more profitable than waiting for the formal announcement tomorrow. There could be a couple of heroes in the wings...




Sell depth has really dried up.

Whooshka we're off and running!
:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## Mickel

Great to see the good news is imminent !

S/P hit an intraday high so far of $1.835 with a volume of 5.8m at noon. Current price $1.805 up 21c today.

It would be strange for LNC to follow the usual trend of falling price towards the end of the trading day, given that the BIG announcement is likely tomorrow. But then why would anyone sell below $4.00 today ????

Non believers, I suppose.


----------



## basilio

> It would be strange for LNC to follow the usual trend of falling price towards the end of the trading day, given that the BIG announcement is likely tomorrow. But then why would anyone sell below $4.00 today ????




But then Mickel lot's of investors/speculators are selling at far less than $4.00.  I don't think the market is anywhere near as rational as we would like to think.

I know that I like many others have constructed  all sorts of plausible reasons why LNC should be selling at $4.00 post announcement. Frankly I think that is very unlikely. In my view given the generally depressed state of the market I can't see enough mad bullishness to propel the shares to that height very quickly.( Careful analysis and  actual results should result in a re rating in the medium term) 

For arguments sake if hedge funds, institutional investors, and high value individuals were even close to this view wouldn't you think there would be even more spirited buying at todays prices when the probability of a big jump tomorrow was close to 100% ?


----------



## basilio

Another reference to India's strong demand for Australian coal.  Almost certainly on the back of the LNC deal.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/a...n-on-indias-energy-crunch-20100801-111d3.html

_(Now if we could just find a magic wand to make sure all that pesky CO2 didn't  cook us to  a cinder in the next 10 years. :_()


----------



## awg

A whole line of 200,000+ at 1.855 got taken out not long ago, so that suggests larger buyers are having a nibble


----------



## basilio

You know what's funny? I was  re reading my remarkably sage advice to all and sundry  regarding the current LNC opportunity.. and thinking  

_Why don't I take my own advice if I think it's so good ?_

So I did.  This better work out..


----------



## basilio

Will there be the big announcement tomorrow?  Maybe... maybe not.

According to Peter Bond there will probably be announcement by the end of the week. Not sure if I wanted to hear that.



> *
> Linc expects tenement sale shortly*
> 
> Published 7:15 AM, 2 Aug 2010 Last update 12:13 PM, 2 Aug 2010
> 
> Linc Energy expects the sale of its Galilee coal tenement in Australia to be finalised this week and sees a separate deal on a second coal tenement within weeks, Linc's chief executive said on Monday.
> 
> "We expect an announcement on the sale of the Galilee tenement to be fairly imminent, probably by end of the week," Linc chief executive officer Peter Bond told Reuters.
> 
> Bond said Linc was also in detailed negotiations with Indian, US and Australian firms on the sale of its other, Teresa tenement in Australia, adding that a separate deal could come within weeks after the sale of Galilee.




http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-reserve-pd20100802-7WSHR?OpenDocument&src=mp


----------



## Slipperz

Whats a few more days anyway.

SP taking a breather now  at 1.88ish before the last leg up on close perhaps?

If we can smash through 1.90 the 2 dollar mark  might be on.

Volumes aren't that heavy a touch under 9 million so far.


----------



## dogeatdog

Hello to one and all. I'm new here, but have been reading many of your comments. I was introduced to Linc energy by a very good friend of mine, who like many of you, has been vested in Linc since the apparent dizzy days of a A$5 + share price.
I first purchased shares about a month ago at A$1.004. Since then I've been pleasantly surprised with the upward trajectory. (Long may it continue) 
I guess we are all have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for at least two scenarios. 1) The coal sales become a done deal, and 2) The global stock markets, etc, remain positive, before what I feel, will see a major correction.
"Deep breath, and relax"


----------



## dogeatdog

I would also be intersted in your perception of Peter Bond. Indian nationals are known for their tough negotiating skills. Do you think PB drives a hard bargain? This is of course related to the folk hopefully purchasing at least one of the coal tenaments.


----------



## basilio

> Hello to one and all. I'm new here, but have been reading many of your comments.




Welcome to ASF Dogeatdog. Very well timed entry into LNC. Let's hope it all does go according to plan. (_But as you are aware these plans have been reset a number  of times now.)_

We'll see soon enough how tough Peter Bond is with his negotiations.


----------



## Slipperz

No surprises to see a few traders taking the profit at close and heading for the exit.

Bird in the hand as they say.

Personally I think all the hype and news reports surrounding the sale this time are pointing to a successful conclusion of the deal with Adani.

Peter Bond has been seen  as the gracious host so can we can we presume negotiations have been of an amicable business like nature?

We should see the Galillee sale done this week and then the other sweetners to follow.

Share price says it all today doesn't it... happy days


----------



## luckypaul

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Congratulations to all on a very positive day. Having said that, I have managed to get myself very confused. Probably because of all the excitement! :iamwithst

Some of the news reports imply Adani are buying Teresa (Emerald), some imply Galilee, hence my confusion. Here is my understanding on what is for sale plus links to the document on the Linc Website that confirms the details:- 

Emerald (Teresa):    852 Million Tonnes Inferred - (this was the one the Chinese offered AUD 1.5 billion for in Sep 2008) http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-94.pdf
Pentland:                 266 Million Tonnes - 176 million tonnes indicated, 90 million tonnes inferred http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/linc-annual-report-09.pdf (page 31)
Galilee                     7.8 Billion Tonnes Inferred (the big one, at least in terms of volume) http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-193.pdf

According to the Business Spectator today http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Indias-Adani-to-buy-1b-Qld-coal-reserve-pd20100802-7WSHR?OpenDocument&src=mp 



> Linc, whose primary business is underground coal gasification, said it was also talking with others to sell its Galilee coal tenement in Queensland, and flagged more deals in the coming weeks, sending its shares soaring.
> 
> By the day's end, shares in Linc were 18.5 per cent higher at $1.89, versus a 1.07 per cent rise in the benchmark index.
> 
> "We expect an announcement on the sale of the Galilee tenement to be fairly imminent, probably by end of the week," Linc chief executive officer Peter Bond told Reuters.
> 
> He said a second separate deal on the sale of its Teresa coal tenement could come within weeks.
> 
> Linc was working on the sale process for Galilee and an agreement had not yet been reached on the contract terms, Mr Bond said, declining to say whether the sale would fetch more than the $1 billion, as reported in newspapers.
> 
> "We are also in well-advanced talks on the sale of the Teresa tenement and we'll focus on that once Galilee is done. A deal will probably come some weeks after Galilee," Mr Bond said, adding that he was in deep negotiations with firms from India, the United States and Australia on the sale of the Teresa tenements.
> 
> Mr Bond said Linc may also announce the sale of another coal asset in the coming weeks.
> 
> "We still have one more major coal asset that we haven't spoken about before. We will start looking at it as a potential asset sale over the next few weeks."




So which one is it Adani are after? Galilee or Emerald (Teresa)? 

I know there are huge differences in terms of coal quantity, quality, type, location, available infrastructure etc but if one billion whatevers (seems to have changed from USD to AUD in reports) for Galilee (the big one in terms of volume), why were they previously offered AUD 1.5 billion for Emerald?? If it is Teresa that Adani are offering 1 billion (somethings) for, what could be the value for Galilee at 8x the size??

Any help sorting my head out would be appreciated? Of course 3 sale announcements will bring complete clarity and hopefully a very large smile. 

At least Linc is now behaving like she used to...with a few more weeks of excitement on the cards too :jump: Enjoy!


----------



## Slipperz

Exciting times indeed for LNC holders.

I'm holding  past the coal asset sales for the Alaskan gas drilling result also.

Potentially one trillion cubic feet of natural gas , next to a pipeline going to a market buying at $7 per thousand cubic feet.

That's a 7 billion dollar pile of gas.

Makes the asset sales look like peanuts 

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/39852/20100730/geopetro-resources-company-gpr-updates-status-of-alaska-project.htm


----------



## basilio

There a few other investors looking keenly at the LNC coal sale.

*The AFC fuel cell is a potentially totally disruptive technology in terms of producing emission free electricity from coal at a very competitive price.*

LNC is a key part to developing that technology with the only testing unit, the rights to the technology, the syngas resources to be used for power generation and, very soon we hope, the cash to make it all happen.

So the shareholders in AFC see some big potential for them. Probably worth a good look from LNC shareholders because there will be good leverage at the current SP.

Came across this British investor website which offers insights into the thinking of AFC shareholders.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/det...on&code=cotn:AFC.L&threshold=0&pageno=2&it=le


----------



## basilio

AFC share price in London has gone up 7% today probably on the strength of LNC's situation. 

Big ripples.

http://www.shareprice.co.uk/AFC/AFC-ENERGY-PLC


----------



## noie

If people got out today, i would love to know their logic.

CEO made a statement that a Coal deal is imminent (this week)
then followed it up saying another within weeks.
if people get out this week, i'm in for more 

Very happy with my 20th July trigger


----------



## mexican

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-reserve-pd20100802-7WSHR?OpenDocument&src=mp

Interesting Basilio that Bondy mentions of another coal tenement that they have not mentioned before, going on the market as well!


----------



## Atomic

basilio said:


> Ok.  We don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves but it will be very interesting to see the path laid out by Peter Bond and Linc if/when the coal sales are finalised. We would hope they were imaginative, hard driving, inspirational and of course profitable.
> 
> One would assume that these plans are being worked out on the basis of various results of the sale but one expect a minimum  $1billion over 1-2 years.
> 
> So we would have a picture of a company with a well proven disruptive technology, a range of resource opportunities to put them into play, a skilled workforce (hopefully) and plenty of cash.  A very potent force and hopefully one that is recognized with more respect and share support than companies that don't tick all the boxes.
> 
> Just the small matter of ticking the last boxes on this sale and clearing the cheques...




Hello All 
great returns for linc energy holders 
i am looking further ahead and riding this runaway train.
So we have a company about to cash up , a technology proven to produce liquid gold. locked in intellectual property to protect their rights most likely globally. Whats the future - hmmm do we see this company being as smart as i think they can be by taking their product straight to the market.
This would be achieved by a whole new chain of LINC petrol staions.
benifits
1 no refining requirements
2 small overheads at first with a bowser at the front gate of any GTL plant
3 ability to produce multiple fuel types and gasses
4 technology system can be deployed globally on scales to suit coal reserves/market

these thoughts a far ahead and is one possible direction to take cutting out all the middle men in fuel supply chain and retail market value returns means big$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


----------



## dogeatdog

COAL SALES UPDATE
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) has become aware of further media and
market speculation this morning as a consequence of articles published in today’s
Australian, The Age and Sydney Morning Herald newspapers regarding an impending sale
of one of Linc Energy’s non-core assets in Queensland to Adani Enterprises.
As previously announced, Linc Energy remains in detailed negotiations with a number of
parties in relation to the sale of its non-core Queensland coal tenements. We confirm that
Adani Enterprises is one of those parties. These negotiations remain commercial in
confidence and, whilst very well advanced, no concluded contract terms have been agreed
with any party as at the time of this announcement.
Linc Energy will immediately advise the market should this position change.

_Based on the above info, and the continued surge in the SP and trading volumes, how come no speeding ticket from the folk from ASX?_


----------



## Slipperz

Looks like we're hitting some radars on wall street!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/madison-williams-and-company-announces-principal-american-liaison-sponsorship-of-asx-listed-linc-energy-on-otcqx-international-2010-08-02?reflink=MW_news_stmp


LNCGY up 18% on overnight trade.


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> I would also be intersted in your perception of Peter Bond. Indian nationals are known for their tough negotiating skills. Do you think PB drives a hard bargain? This is of course related to the folk hopefully purchasing at least one of the coal tenaments.




My view is that P Bond is holding out for more than $1B for the Galilee tenement and that is why there is no done deal yet. He declined to confirm $1B  or more was the sale price yesterday-
"Linc was working on the sale process for Galilee and an agreement had not yet been reached on the contract terms, Mr Bond said, declining to say whether the sale would fetch more than the $1 billion, as reported in newspapers."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...ocument&src=mp

If he can extract more than $1B for Galilee the market would view it favourably and he will have demonstrated that he is a tough negotiator. This would be good news for future sales.


----------



## basilio

Re contract details for Galilee.

Thee are many ways to extract best value from a deal.  Up front price can be one such  way. Trailing royalties, contra deals, very good terms whatever. 

What does surprise me is that given the size of the deal there seems very little speculation in the financial papers on what it could mean for LNC.  It seems to be a straight cash in the bank deal with little extra costs. That is some result and yet no analysis of the consequences ?

Let's see the money !!


----------



## Mickel

Trading halt-
"pending announcement regarding the sale of one of its non core coal assets in Qld. Trading halt to remain until the earlier of time of announcement or opening of trading on 5th August"

The question is  HOW MUCH ?????

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100803/pdf/31rpwy01l5mn6t.pdf


----------



## basilio

About time!!
_
(This better not be another one of "we're still having talks" announcments. )_


----------



## snowking

Just read this article

Linc Energy inks $3bn deal with Indias Adan


----------



## basilio

Figures are in


> *Linc Energy says inks $3bn deal with India's Adani*
> 
> Published 4:58 PM, 3 Aug 2010
> 
> 
> Australia's Linc Energy has agreed to sell its Galilee coal tenement to India's Adani Enterprises in a deal worth $3 billion, Linc's chief executive has told Reuters on Tuesday.
> 
> Under the deal, Linc, whose primary business is underground coal gasification, will receive $500 million in cash and $2 per tonne in royalty for the first 20 years of coal production, Linc's chief executive officer Peter Bond said.
> 
> Full story...




http://www.businessspectator.com.au...l-with-Indias-Adan-7YA2L?OpenDocument&src=hp1


----------



## basilio

Full story on SMH

Extra details are that the $2 tonne royalty will be indexed (naturally). Will start in 2014 and expect around $100-120 million a year. 

Worth about 20-22 c a share earnings on current share numbers.

Good deal. Let's break out the champers !

http://www.smh.com.au/business/linc...le-to-indias-adani-mining-20100803-11572.html


----------



## basilio

Am I being nit picky here but should the official announcement have been made through the ASX tomorrow morning? Is there a protocol on this ?

Obviously the American markets will start will full knowledge of the deal and we can see what the response there is.

From here I think it has great legs. Sufficient initial cash to give all operations a swift kick remembering there is more to come with the other tenements. An indexed income stream of at least $100m a year from 2014. That is at least 20c a share with no operating costs.  How else does one make $100m a year these days ?

Will be interesting to see how the analysts read it.


----------



## Mickel

Yes . Good news at last !!

You were right Basilio ! most of the value as a royalty.

Hopefully the Teresa tenement can be sold soon to provide a booty of over $1B


----------



## Slipperz

I am astonished.

Finally we have the number.

3 BILLION FREAKING DOLLARS!

I like it a lot.

It's a company maker.

For a pile of coal LNC didn't want.

LOL

Congratulations PB on a deal well done.

Good fortune and congratulations to all shareholders!


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/Adani_Enterprises_Ltd_030810.pdf

Adani stock exchange announcement


----------



## Slipperz

Jonathan111 said:


> http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/Adani_Enterprises_Ltd_030810.pdf
> 
> Adani stock exchange announcement




Presumably LNC will release the same pre open tomorrow?

Hopefully that will clear the way for a good days trading.

The instos will be taking out a few lines tomorrow on those long term royalty streams.


----------



## noie

As it went into a Halt  today is is likely to resume at 10?

Some exchanges carry halts too long , im kinda new to ASX (unsure even what system they use)


----------



## mexican

Will be interesting to see what the SP will open at.
Did the punter's expect $1 Billion now and are going to be disappointed with $500 million cash and $2.5 Billion in royalties over 20 years!
Time will tell!


----------



## Jonathan111

LINC SELLS GALILEE COAL TENEMENT FOR $3 BILLION

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
3 August 2010
LINC SELLS GALILEE COAL TENEMENT FOR $3 BILLION
• Linc Energy sells its 100% interest in the Galilee coal tenement (EPC 1690)
to Adani Mining Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Adani Enterprises
Ltd
• Sale price of $500 million in cash up-front, plus a royalty of $2 per tonne
(indexed to CPI) over 20 production years
• Total estimated revenue from the sale of approximately $3 billion over the
life of the royalty
• The sale to Adani represents the largest single investment by an Indian
company into Australia
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to announce the sale of its noncore
coal tenement in the Galilee Basin, EPC 1690, to Adani Mining Pty Ltd (“Adani”), a
subsidiary of Adani Enterprises Ltd (ADEL:BO), for $500 million in cash and a $2 per tonne
royalty (indexed for C.P.I) for the first twenty years of coal production, creating a total
estimated revenue stream of approximately $3 billion to be paid to Linc Energy.
Adani has already obtained approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) for
the acquisition, as well as indicative approval for the transfer of the Galilee tenement from
the Queensland State Government.
The $500 million upfront payment has today been deposited into escrow and will be
released to Linc Energy immediately upon receipt of the final Galilee tenement transfer
approval from the Queensland State Government.
As previously announced, the Galilee tenement has a resource statement of 7.8 billion
tonnes of coal in accordance with the JORC code (7.3 billion tonnes Inferred resource status
and 500 million tonnes Indicated resource status). The Galilee tenement is capable of
producing up to 60 million tonnes of coal per year once fully operational.
Linc Energy has also secured the exclusive right to negotiate with Adani on the joint
development of any proposed future Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) operations
within the Galilee tenement.
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT / MEDIA RELEASE
CONTINUED…
Page 2 of 3
Linc Energy’s CEO, Mr Peter Bond, said today, "This is an exciting day for Linc Energy and
its shareholders. We have worked tirelessly over many months to maximise the outcome of
this first coal sale for our shareholders”.
“The royalty agreement gives Linc Energy the flexibility to monetise the royalty now or hold it
and receive the full benefit of twenty years of cash flow,” he said.
“This transaction provides shareholders with a Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately
$1.5 billion, with the opportunity to earn over $3 billion in revenue over the life of the royalty.
This is undoubtedly a great result for the Company,” the Linc Energy CEO said.
“The value of the Galilee tenement and the strong interest in the other coal tenements held
by the Company are just indicators of the depth, quality and potential of Linc Energy. This
sale becomes a springboard from which the Company can now aggressively pursue its
commercial aspirations within Australia and other parts of the world,” Bond said.
Peter Bond
Chief Executive Officer


----------



## Slipperz

mexican said:


> Will be interesting to see what the SP will open at.
> Did the punter's expect $1 Billion now and are going to be disappointed with $500 million cash and $2.5 Billion in royalties over 20 years!
> Time will tell!




Traders will be dumping for profit and the instos will be buying.

Purchasing power is the equation.

I'm in no great hurry to reweight out of LNC at this stage.

This story is starting to get really interesting now.


----------



## basilio

Interesting note that LNC wants to keep any UCG interest alive in Gailee. Must be some potential there.

I can see the point of the play. A big slab of immediate cash with either a strong long term cash flow or an  early monetised amount.  Real questions will be

1) How/where will they divy up the cash amongst their developments?
2) How much extra will come in from the other tenements
3) Will they do this again? I think it would be very tempting to try and prove up another big lump of billion dollar coal mine.

And of course it will be very,very interesting to see how the market responds in the short term and the analysts and institutions in the medium term.


----------



## mexican

Slipperz said:


> Traders will be dumping for profit and the instos will be buying.
> 
> Purchasing power is the equation.
> 
> I'm in no great hurry to reweight out of LNC at this stage.
> 
> This story is starting to get really interesting now.




Spot on there Slipperz.
IMO north we should go..........wait and see where it settles. Keep a very close eye on Alaska for us please Slipperz and I am very interested in what other tenement Linc have, that they are going to put up for sale.
Teresa
Pentland
???????


----------



## noie

mexican said:


> Spot on there Slipperz.
> IMO north we should go..........wait and see where it settles. Keep a very close eye on Alaska for us please Slipperz and I am very interested in what other tenement Linc have, that they are going to put up for sale.
> Teresa
> Pentland
> ???????




Well, i do recall seeing that they were looking at another sale in 3 weeks..
and making a deal with a current buyer is always more likely then with a new buyer..
maybe this is why we have a up front and over time deal.


----------



## namrog

HMMmmm,  Out of 3 billion, half a billion now and the rest over 20 years.
Initially I thought wow thats great, but on second thoughts I'm not so sure it's such a great deal, and would have much preffered say 1.5 billion total now ,  because of inflation etc, in 10 or 20 years, $2 a ton is not going to look like much, having said that , it's probably the best they could have done under the circumstances...

What I'd really like to see now is diesel out of the demo plant, or concrete proof that it's close to possible, so that these funds are used to further their main objective IE producing diesel from coal, though I'm not so sure that this is their no 1 objective any more, it seems to me that the company is positioning itself as more of a potential power generator these days..

All said and done, these are interesting and exciting days for lnc holders, and encouraging as it is,  I'm not getting too carried away just yet..


----------



## GCrenegade

Peter Bond was just on abc discussing the deal and said that the other sales are well on the way and it was suprising who the potential buyers where. PB mentioned that Adani were not looking at these other properties and the chinese were not in the top 3 in the race. Interesting to see who it turns out to be.


----------



## basilio

On reflection I'm not sure if the whole stock market world will spin on it's axis because LNC finally sold its coal asset. Obviously we are all pretty obsessed as is Peter Bond but the rest of the troops? Perhaps not.

I believe the institutions will have to start buying shares. The smartest, quickest thinkers ( 1-2) - have probably been buying in the last 2 weeks. The next couple will probably get in early on. But I suspect the rest will simply not take much notice until their quarterly review and it becomes clear from  some further price increase that they should also be there.

The analysts? Apart from one company I don't think there has been any recent serious analytical advice on LNC. In any case I havn't seen any such advice.  And remember that LNC has been assiduously courting them through the Limelight series for a long time now. So why will August 4th suddenly produce a wreath of glowing reports? They will take their own good time. The technology is still young and commercially unproven.

So perhaps the initial buyers will be individual longerterm LNC shareholders who decide that with the financial security of the coal sale LNC is now a serious long term investment and that on balance it won't be getting any cheaper.

In the big picture I suggest most investors are still nervous about economic conditions as a whole. It wouldn't take much to spook the market into a serious dip.  And I really couldn't see LNC somehow spared from that fate.

But LNC now has at least $500 m in the bank and the legitimate promise of $2-300 m more.  There are a number of oil, gas and coal tenements looking for exploration and development. The CTG technology is pretty good to go. I suggest that simply mapping out the path and getting on with the task of becoming a clean energy superpower is all thatcan be done. The hype can be put to bed. The hard work continues.

I just won't get too surprised or disappointed if LNC doesn't go into total takeoff this week.


----------



## Mickel

namrog said:


> HMMmmm,  Out of 3 billion, half a billion now and the rest over 20 years.
> Initially I thought wow thats great, but on second thoughts I'm not so sure it's such a great deal, and would have much preffered say 1.5 billion total now ,  because of inflation etc, in 10 or 20 years, $2 a ton is not going to look like much, having said that , it's probably the best they could have done under the circumstances...




As PB said, they have the flexibility of selling the royalty stream now for approx $1B (ie $1.5B total less $500 cash in escrow) or holding on to the royalty stream to collect another $2.5B approx over 20 years. 

So the deal is for a current value of $1.5B (and they can have that amount now if they wish).

Another point is that the royalty stream is $2 per tonne indexed to the Aussie CPI, so the actual $$ over 20 years will be more.

Also it's important to point out that it is 20 years production, so whether they start production in 2014 (as planned) or later it will not change the life of the royalty.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-237.pdf

I consider the deal to be great and evidence that PB is a tough negotiator.

Whether they sell the royalty stream or not will probably depend on the price and timing of the Teresa sale as I think they wish to set up a GTL plant in the US as well as Sth Aust very quickly as will need around $2B to achieve that.


----------



## bennib0i

Mickel said:


> I consider the deal to be great and evidence that PB is a tough negotiator.




I beleive so too. Considering the enormous amount of back pressure Mr Bond has been under over the past two years to secure these sales, if one negotiator wasn't as strong and firm as Peter, one would of settled for a lower rate at a more depeserate time. Also considering that Idians are known tough negotiators, the result is more than acceptable --- Linc now has a positive bank balance and a secured form of income for the next 20 years.


----------



## luckypaul

From Linc's announcement http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/1226046/Linc%20sells%20Galilee%20Coal%20Tenement%20for%20_3%20Billion%203-08-10.pdf



> “This transaction provides shareholders with a Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately
> $1.5 billion, with the opportunity to earn over $3 billion in revenue over the life of the royalty.
> This is undoubtedly a great result for the Company,” the Linc Energy CEO said.




Quoted NPV AUD 1,500,000,000 / 494,692,339 (Linc shares on Issue) = AUD 3.03

So $3.03 should be the new floor for the SP. With all the short and long term potential that Linc has - if this stock isn't near $7 by the end of the month I will eat my hat!


----------



## noie

luckypaul said:


> From Linc's announcement http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/1226046/Linc%20sells%20Galilee%20Coal%20Tenement%20for%20_3%20Billion%203-08-10.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> Quoted NPV AUD 1,500,000,000 / 494,692,339 (Linc shares on Issue) = AUD 3.03
> 
> So $3.03 should be the new floor for the SP. With all the short and long term potential that Linc has - if this stock isn't near $7 by the end of the month I will eat my hat!




I agree with the $3.03 (i got $2.97)  but the next move can only come after the second sales is announced.. right now we don't have all the information.
If it is smaller or a worse rate people will see it as negative news

meanwhile we still have a trade halt.


----------



## noie

Oh My Mistake.

news just in 

Linc Energy Ltd (LNC) (Trading Status: PRE_NR) 

bids up to 2.6


----------



## bennib0i

luckypaul said:


> Quoted NPV AUD 1,500,000,000 / 494,692,339 (Linc shares on Issue) = AUD 3.03
> 
> So $3.03 should be the new floor for the SP. With all the short and long term potential that Linc has - if this stock isn't near $7 by the end of the month I will eat my hat!




I wish you were right, but $7.00 is very very very almost impossibly unlikely by the end of the month without futher sales and positive reports from their current operations.


----------



## basilio

Well we know that LNC went up almost 11% in USA overnight. Probably a reasonable indication of what should happen today.

http://www.otcqx.com/otcqx/market/quote?symbol=LNCGY&tab=0


----------



## bennib0i

Opening price at 1.92 and a quick drop to 1.80. 
Not the jump everyone is hoping for, but I suspect a momentum build up during th day. Already at 3mil volumn and rising fast...

Will it surpass the $2.00 mark today???.....


----------



## basilio

Fascinating watching the course of sales on LNC. Open at $1.92. One minute later (literally) large sales going through at  $1.80 !! Then up again and all over the shop. 

Anyone offer an explanation ?

(One thing that is clear is that plenty of people want to take their money and get out.)


----------



## skc

Interesting response from the market. Now printed a low of $1.76.

Does anyone know what happens to the royalty stream if Adani doesn't develop the mine? That might explain the large discount to that royalty stream.

Assuming $125m each year for 20 years starting in 2014, the 20 year royalty stream represents...

- $1025m at 7.5% discount rate (around the mark they used in the announcement of 1.5B NPV)
- $800m at 10% discount rate
- $514m at 15% discount rate
- $350m at 20% discount rate

The share price now basically has a big discount rate applied to the royalty stream, plus attribute no value to further asset sales (which PB said is well advanced and has larger upfront component) or LNC's core business.

This reminded me of HGO which trade well below the cash they sold ESG for 2 months before it bolted up.


----------



## basilio

Ok, Ok Ok.  I think it's time we organized a hat party.  All get together with our most vibrant and tastiest hats and choice of condiments. Perhaps master chef can come up with original recipes.

Obviously we know SFA about investing in the stock market !!


----------



## joestjack

basilio said:


> Ok, Ok Ok.  I think it's time we organized a hat party.  All get together with our most vibrant and tastiest hats and choice of condiments. Perhaps master chef can come up with original recipes.
> 
> Obviously we know SFA about investing in the stock market !!




I've been watching Linc all morning and it seems the trading halt was lifted before the announcement about Galilee was released to the ASX - perhaps that had something to do with the price drop? Down 8 cents as I type.

The announcement has been released to the ASX just a minute ago so see if that changes the outlook.


----------



## basilio

> I've been watching Linc all morning and it seems the trading halt was lifted before the announcement about Galilee was released to the ASX - perhaps that had something to do with the price drop? Down 8 cents as I type.
> 
> The announcement has been released to the ASX just a minute ago so see if that changes the outlook




Good try joe.  I think most people knew there was a successful coal sale. 6 million shares don't exchanged on a whim. But what a bollocking!! Seems like really strange stuff. I've heard of buying on rumours and selling on facts but this has to be the biggest bubble prick  since the South Sea bubble. (Just a little hyperbole there.)

Let's see how the day unfolds and perhaps there are a few traders out there messing with our minds and wallets.


----------



## joestjack

basilio said:


> Good try joe.  I think most people knew there was a successful coal sale. 6 million shares don't exchanged on a whim. But what a bollocking!! Seems like really strange stuff. I've heard of buying on rumours and selling on facts but this has to be the biggest bubble prick  since the South Sea bubble. (Just a little hyperbole there.)
> 
> Let's see how the day unfolds and perhaps there are a few traders out there messing with our minds and wallets.




Absolutely, the market has reacted very strangely. I expected maybe a 10 - 15% gain in Linc today - wasn't expecting it to surge to $3 or anything crazy like that - but this is madness.

With the share price factoring in the coal sale at $1 billion cash over the past 2 weeks, maybe some traders were disappointed with the lack of cash upfront? That's the only other explanation I can give.

Anyways, it's still early days so let's sit back and see what it does. It seems to have stabilised the last 20 mins or so.


----------



## basilio

I'm thinking....

Wasn't it interesting how the original leak about the Adani coal deal came from a couple of sources close to the company in India ? Whoosh up goes the stock.

A week or so later, another confirming leak. Whoosh again. Finally the announcement. Perhaps not quite what we expected but pretty good nonetheless. 

Now we get wave after wave of selling driving the price down. I'm wondering (total speculation) if there wasn't a huge slab of Indian money behind the the last 3 weeks rises, that it was a bit of a set up and they are taking their profits home.

One totally unbearable possibility is that the sale is not as tight as it should be..  I realise this may sound fantastical(my new word)  but the huge continuing sell down of LNC rings bells.


----------



## noie

I got in with the combined information of 2 Sales and some nice figures..

What happens right now does not worry me too much we had 13 million traded on the 2nd  with a normal average of closer to 2 million today we have 9 million in the first half.

Today we have had 2500 trades in the morning session..
a lot of people are watching this stock..

and

the 52 week high is 2.04, a lot of people got in at just near 1.00

I will react on news of another sale, or ill get in if it get low enough.

who said 
"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

some old hack


----------



## luckypaul

Just got this news release from my Internaxx account:- 



> 08/04/2010 03:38:30 - MARKET TALK: Linc Sheds 2.4% After Adani Deal Sealed
> 
> 0138 GMT [Dow Jones] Linc Energy (LNC.AU) shares down 2.4% at A$1.815 after initial jump to around A$1.915 when trading resumed after company announced sale of Galilee thermal coal tenement in Queensland state. Sale was already well anticipated by the market, helping to drive an 85% share price rally since July 1, but terms of the actual deal may disappoint some a little. Linc had valued the property at over A$1 billion. It's received A$500 million cash from India's Adani Enterprises (512599.BY) plus a A$2/metric ton royalty for 20 years. Royalties won't kick in, however, until tenement starts producing coal and Adani, which still needs to build a mine, figure out rail access to a port and build a new coal terminal at the port to load sips, says first production could take about four years to happen. Linc Chief Executive Peter Bond says he's confident a sale of another property, Emerald, which contains thermal and coking coal, is "not too far off". (Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com)
> 
> Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
> MarketTalk@dowjones.com




I guess that sums it up! Very disappointing and even with the above it is still  extremely frustrating to us investors who believe in the company. Oh well, looks like we are waiting for a coal sale...again! Lets hope they manage to get a similar AUD 1.5 billion that was originally offered by Xinwen back when we were all children.

Still holding .. and hoping Mr Bond gets gas too.


----------



## luckypaul

The deal - from the horses mouth

http://www.brr.com.au/event/67578/linc-energy-completes-3billion-coal-asset-sale-peter-bond-managing-director

Enjoy!


----------



## dogeatdog

My god! I'm here in sunny London on holiday, and woke up with an hours trading time left on the ASX. Shocked to see the Linc SP hovering around 1.75
There's been some interesting, and clever buying in recent weeks it seems, and some serious money has been made today, but not by me.
Having said that, I'm in for the medium term at least, based on all the positives the company have in it's favour.
The champagne is back in the fridge for now.


----------



## noie

luckypaul said:


> The deal - from the horses mouth
> 
> http://www.brr.com.au/event/67578/linc-energy-completes-3billion-coal-asset-sale-peter-bond-managing-director
> 
> Enjoy!




That Audio interview is great.

I liked that he said:

Teresa hopefully next, 

Under-bidders are still in it for the next deal.

more to come in the next few months.


----------



## namrog

I am not surprised by todays action, in the past this company has proven  to be one of the leakiest on the planet , so no surprise to see the insiders who have been accumulating over the last couple of weeks cashing in today...Bond has to look after his buddys first, we come second  !!

Thanks for the clarification about the deal above Mickel, wasn't aware of it all, PB will do what he has to do, but if it was me I think I'd be taking the full ammount now (1.5 bil ) and get on with the core business of building a ctl plant in SA....providing the technology works of course , which has still to be proven in my humble oppinion, but thats another issue alltogether... 

Not holding my breath re the other sales, but will be happy to be proven wrong, eitherways we should be due an announcement soon regards where the company goes from here....


----------



## skivvy

It was an interesting day today for LNC.  It baffles me a little as to why the price was down today. I was really taken by suprise as the news was not bad.  The old saying "the markets reaction to the news is more important than the news itself", rang true today. I guess the deal was not exactly what the market expected and as the SP didnt continue up through $2 the traders took their money elsewhere.

As I have missed out on the last few days of trading (move from 1.60 up to 1.96 and back again to todays close) I am looking for the gap to fill and support to be formed around 1.70 and see if the buy to sell ratio improves before re-entering.


----------



## GCrenegade

Ive have just done a NPV calculation of my own, and came up with just over $1.381 billion using 0.075 discount rate, this still equates to $2.79/share with more sales to go and with a larger upfront payment the SP surely has to start moving north. I dont hold shares in Linc but have watched it for almost 2 years waiting for the right time to get in.


----------



## basilio

Very interesting market response to the sealing of the $3 billion coal sale. 

There are obviously some very exposed positions from speculators who are desperate to get out.  Still a large overhang on the sellers side.

On the fundamentals I think LNC is now extremely attractive. Financial security with $500 m in the bank and probably more to come.. At least another $1b owing one way or another. Great prospects, technology and assets with a current market cap around $800m. Just has to be a great opportunity for serious investors with very little downside and huge possibilities.


----------



## luckypaul

> Thanks for the clarification about the deal above Mickel, wasn't aware of it all, PB will do what he has to do, but if it was me I think I'd be taking the full ammount now (1.5 bil ) and get on with the core business of building a ctl plant in SA....providing the technology works of course , which has still to be proven in my humble oppinion, but thats another issue alltogether...




Ah Namrog, you raise some valid concerns. Personally, however, I have a little more faith in Mr Bond. There is no way he would have done this deal (and as you can hear on the Boardroom Radio intrerview http://www.brr.com.au/event/67578/linc-energy-completes-3billion-coal-asset-sale-peter-bond-managing-director actually be very excited about it, without having something else up his sleeve. A mere 500M is not enought for Linc to do what they need for sure.

Having already received "written indicitive offers" for the remaining 2 coal areas for sale and him being privvy to that information, I would guess there is much more positive information coming soon. For him to be that happy I am guessing that involves significantly more cash!

Time will tell, although from the SP move early on today, it looks like there are still others out there that believe this stock has a huge upside above $1.80.

I am still all in and will give it another month before I have to exit at least some of my positions.  I will do that very reluctantly.


----------



## ChrisV80

Remember they went up by 80% last month on the basis that most traders expected the deal was in the bag... so it is expected there would be a pull back yesterday with many of those buying on rumours selling on facts..

So far today they are up 6.3% and looking as the loss from yesterday will be made back and hopfully then some, a few days of gains like this and we will all be where we want to be with the SP.

Anyway it could be worse.. at least the sale did not fall through.

I would assume if the company has a NPV of $1.5B and approx 500M shares on issue the SP would be $3... but that is just what you think should be the case and not how the market works unfortunantely! 

None the less I am in for the long term with this company as I believe in their technology and now they have some money behind them it could be the start of a profitable big company in the making


----------



## joestjack

ChrisV80 said:


> Remember they went up by 80% last month on the basis that most traders expected the deal was in the bag... so it is expected there would be a pull back yesterday with many of those buying on rumours selling on facts..
> 
> So far today they are up 6.3% and looking as the loss from yesterday will be made back and hopfully then some, a few days of gains like this and we will all be where we want to be with the SP.
> 
> Anyway it could be worse.. at least the sale did not fall through.
> 
> I would assume if the company has a NPV of $1.5B and approx 500M shares on issue the SP would be $3... but that is just what you think should be the case and not how the market works unfortunantely!
> 
> None the less I am in for the long term with this company as I believe in their technology and now they have some money behind them it could be the start of a profitable big company in the making




I've got a feeling as the market settles to the news we might see the share price build some momentum. Yesterday was a choppy day with the announcement not quite being what most people had anticipated. I'd like to think the share price will move towards $2.30 - $2.50 over the next fortnight or so - the market needs to wake up a realise that the deal is not so bad and there is the prospect of further coal sales very soon.


----------



## basilio

I think it will be really interesting to see how the analysts respond when they start adding up LNC cash resources and the potential of the technology LNC brings to the table.

Current cash $500 m.  The long term royalty figure of $2.5 bill can be monetised into probably another $1b as early as next year.  That's $3 a share in cash alone with the current SP at $1.87 !!

And then there are the other 2 coal tenements probably worth $400-500 m.

And we havn't started talking about the next coal leases, the Alaskan oil and gas leases the actual CTG and GTL processes which are currently performing very well AND a very promising cheap alkaline fuel cell powered by the CTG process. 

There is a lot to be excited about. Probably worth comparing the situation now to Sept 2008 . SP was 2-3 times higher. Resources significantly smaller, no fuel cell, the CTG processs still being developed and a far smaller staff to actually put  the program into place. LNC is in a far better place now than ever before.


----------



## luckypaul

Quote from Basilio: 







> And then there are the other 2 coal tenements probably worth $400-500 m.




Basilio, why are you expecting such small cash values for the other 2 coal assets? I agree Pentland is small (although well located infrastructure wise). It is Galilee that has just been sold, leaving Teresa (at Emerald) as my issue here. 

It is the smaller Teresa that Xinwen offered $1.5 billion for in Sep 2008 http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-94.pdf.

I do understand that the coal price has dropped since then by approx 40% - see http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60 ....

... BUT prior to the Xinwen offer (like 28-July-2008) Teresa had a Jorc of 470 million tonnes of coal ( see http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60 ) 

and as of 30-Jan-2009 (see http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-132.pdf  page 7) Teresa has JORC 853 million tonnes! That is an increase of more than 75% !!!

In other words Teresa should be worth in excess of the $1.5 billion now (maybe even in excess of AUS $2 billion), certainly not in the millions. Even at 1.5 billion that SHOULD  add another AUD $3.03 per share to Linc's book value.

People thought I was mad on my post before (when I said SP would equal $7 by end of the month) but in terms of cash alone, Linc should be worth over $6 per share after the Teresa deal.

Please tell me if I am missing something, either I am or the rest of the market is? :crap:


----------



## dogeatdog

Good day folks.
Was on a flight home to Singapore from London, so missed trading on the 5th.
Pleasantly surprised to see the closing share price in the A$1.80's when I arrived home.
I've found this thread an interesting mix of facts, fears, jubilation and disappiontment since joining.
High expectations once the recent coal sale was announced. Talk of rapid sp increase.
The reality is, Linc energy, and it's leader(s) are small players in a very large game.
When it comes to trading the various stock markets, I, and more than likely many of you, are swimming with sharks. Professional traders will always come out on top.
We can all speculate on what we believe Linc sp should be trading at, now and in the near future.
I'm a small holder with approx 200K shares with an averaged price of A$1.32p/s. 
With what has happened since 2008, I believe anything between A$4 and 5 before the end of the year, would be an amazing ROE as far as I'm concerned.
Thank you all for your continued input, and views.


----------



## basilio

> Basilio, why are you expecting such small cash values for the other 2 coal assets? I agree Pentland is small (although well located infrastructure wise). It is Galilee that has just been sold, leaving Teresa (at Emerald) as my issue here.




My estimates of the cash value of Teresa and Pentland was based on comments made in the papers after the sale of the Galilee tenement.



> Linc is also seeking to sell the Teresa tenement, estimated at more than $500 million, and the Pentland tenement, which has an estimated value of up to $100 million.
> 
> Mr Bond told BusinessDay that a sale of Teresa was expected within about three months. ''Both of those other sales were progressing well but probably were delayed somewhat because we had an aggressive buyer interested in Galilee,'' he said.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/billiondollar-tip-gives-linc-coal-comfort-20100802-113de.html

I was suggesting a somewhat lower figure because there is still the probability that the cash won't come upfront and I'm still aware that UBS has it's hand in the till for their cut. (It will be interesting to see what costs have been allocated for the sale process).

With regard to how high and how quickly LNC will go I'm inclined to agree with dogeatdog's comments.



> The reality is, Linc energy, and it's leader(s) are small players in a very large game.
> When it comes to trading the various stock markets, I, and more than likely many of you, are swimming with sharks. Professional traders will always come out on top.
> With what has happened since 2008, I believe anything between A$4 and 5 before the end of the year, would be an amazing ROE as far as I'm concerned




I'm afraid I still see the overall market as  bit of a rigged game.


----------



## dogeatdog

Hello again fellow Linc investors.
Satisfactory progress regarding the sp of Linc today. 
If we can break through, and beyond the A$2 p/s mark early next week, we could start to witness a share price we are all aiming for, if not praying for.
Let's also hope for bearish sentiment in Europe and the States at the close of trading.
Pleasant weekend to all.


----------



## dogeatdog

I'm meant bullish of course 
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................


----------



## Mickel

Just announced by Alan Kohler on ABC that he will have Peter Bond as a guest on Inside Business on ABC1 on Sunday at 10.00 am.

Hopefully this will spread the good news further and help push the S/P higher next week.


----------



## Slipperz

Mickel said:


> Just announced by Alan Kohler on ABC that he will have Peter Bond as a guest on Inside Business on ABC1 on Sunday at 10.00 am.
> 
> Hopefully this will spread the good news further and help push the S/P higher next week.




I'll be looking forward to that with interest.

I thought by today we would be around the 2.20 to 2.50 mark on the strength of that deal.

I'd laugh my ass off at the sellers at 1.75 if he said on Sunday they had decided to monetise the royalty stream and put another 1.5 billion in the bank next week through UBS.

Anyway after I got over my initial shock at seeing the price that low on Wednesdays close I went balls deep and brought T3 at my limit thinking it couldn't possibly fall any further.

Had a coffee on Thursday open and hit the sell button at 10.30 for the easiest money I ever made.

Profit from pain I'd call it.

Looking at the balance of my account takes all the pain away


----------



## noie

Slipperz said:


> I'll be looking forward to that with interest.
> 
> I thought by today we would be around the 2.20 to 2.50 mark on the strength of that deal.
> 
> I'd laugh my ass off at the sellers at 1.75 if he said on Sunday they had decided to monetise the royalty stream and put another 1.5 billion in the bank next week through UBS.
> 
> Anyway after I got over my initial shock at seeing the price that low on Wednesdays close I went balls deep and brought T3 at my limit thinking it couldn't possibly fall any further.
> 
> Had a coffee on Thursday open and hit the sell button at 10.30 for the easiest money I ever made.
> 
> Profit from pain I'd call it.
> 
> Looking at the balance of my account takes all the pain away




Nice trade,

I doubled down on the 4th just before the close, happy to wait for the next announcement..  tidy return so far, it makes up for my other mistakes.


----------



## basilio

Good article in The Australian summing up LNC situation and history. Finishes on the note that LNC has 341 tenements around the world. Obviously all there for UCG and/or oil-gas development.

Discusses LNC history and the historical connection with Couger. 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...mining-technique/story-e6frg8zx-1225902296719


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Good article in The Australian summing up LNC situation and history. Finishes on the note that LNC has 341 tenements around the world. Obviously all there for UCG and/or oil-gas development.
> 
> Discusses LNC history and the historical connection with Couger.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...mining-technique/story-e6frg8zx-1225902296719




Makes for great reading Basilio.
Also looking forward to PB's tv interview on Sunday..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................


----------



## Slipperz

Indeed.

It would be good to have some  idea what the plan from here going forward is.

Keep drilling and selling coalfields, try for oil in the akarinka basin, drill in alaska for gas, build the gtl plant in SA and Wyoming....all of the above?

Definitely a lot of potential when you include another couple of sales to be tied down.

Teresa must be worth at least 500 million so that's another dollar at cash backing when finalised the market isn't even considering!

And now the deal with Adani is done PB is in a position of financial strength to conclude his negotiations with the other buyers.

Very interesting times for LNC.  I'd like to have a bit more weight on it but have made some very good gains in the past few weeks and have weighted down to about 33%.


----------



## Mickel

The Inside Business interview with Alan Kohler was very informative. Some points made by PB-

1. Cost of constructing a 20,000 Barrel GTL plant in Australia is rising (probably over AUD 1B) and 40% more than overseas.
2. Looking at constructing smaller modular units in Asia.
3. First GTL plant could be outside Australia.
4.While they have the capacity to build GTL facility by themselves they may
do a joint venture with a partner who brings more than $$$ to the venture and lessen the business risk.
5. This could likely include an Oil company .
6. They are about at least 2 years from commercial diesel production as construction would take about 20 months.

Any other views on the interview ?


----------



## Slipperz

Mickel said:


> The Inside Business interview with Alan Kohler was very informative. Some points made by PB-
> 
> 1. Cost of constructing a 20,000 Barrel GTL plant in Australia is rising (probably over AUD 1B) and 40% more than overseas.
> 2. Looking at constructing smaller modular units in Asia.
> 3. First GTL plant could be outside Australia.
> 4.While they have the capacity to build GTL facility by themselves they may
> do a joint venture with a partner who brings more than $$$ to the venture and lessen the business risk.
> 5. This could likely include an Oil company .
> 6. They are about at least 2 years from commercial diesel production as construction would take about 20 months.
> 
> Any other views on the interview ?




Interesting interview.

Less spin from PB and more hard facts.

One of my concerns with LNC has been the cash burn which is very high for a company that's hasn't made any revenue.

To hear PB this morning talking costs assuaged my fears somewhat.

He sounds like he is driving LNC to the most cost effective and profitable outcome for shareholders.

Offshore fabrication and modularisation of the gtl plant to save on capex is the go.

Sounds like the SA plant is a likely jv and given BP has a mou to buy 70% of all production they must be the most likely jv partner.

That will really derisk the development costs.

As for the gtl technology he sounds very confident in the process.

Why shouldn't he be sasol have been doing it for donkeys years.

LNC is really on track now imho and a great long term hold.


----------



## basilio

Thanks for the summary of the interview Mickel.

As usual Peter Bond tales a big picture view. One can quickly see what it would cost a lot more to build a GTL plant in Australia rather than Asia. Labour costs, construction costs, probably compliance. And given that fuel is sold at world market rates (I believe) it immediately makes commercial sense to  site a plant where it is most cost effective.

Not sure how that commercial view stands with the idea of national fuel self sufficiency however. If we accept the analysis that Peak oil is well and truly here and will impact within a few years should Australia have locally produced  fuel rather than relying on importing it from overseas ? Just a thought.

Can also see why Peter might want a tie in with the oil companies in constructing the plant. In a real sense LNC would become part of Big Oil benefiting from their technological capacities as well as their political muscle. 

Was anything mentioned about power generation and the role of the Alkaline Fuel Cell in producing clean electricity ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Thanks for the summary of the interview Mickel.
> 
> As usual Peter Bond tales a big picture view. One can quickly see what it would cost a lot more to build a GTL plant in Australia rather than Asia. Labour costs, construction costs, probably compliance. And given that fuel is sold at world market rates (I believe) it immediately makes commercial sense to  site a plant where it is most cost effective.
> 
> Not sure how that commercial view stands with the idea of national fuel self sufficiency however. If we accept the analysis that Peak oil is well and truly here and will impact within a few years should Australia have locally produced  fuel rather than relying on importing it from overseas ? Just a thought.
> 
> Can also see why Peter might want a tie in with the oil companies in constructing the plant. In a real sense LNC would become part of Big Oil benefiting from their technological capacities as well as their political muscle.
> 
> Was anything mentioned about power generation and the role of the Alkaline Fuel Cell in producing clean electricity ?




Not much about power generation and nothing about AFC fuel cell.

Just a clarification- My understanding is that the GTL Plant would be constructed in Asia but transported to Australia or USA as required.

Hopefully the interview will be on LNC website this coming week.


----------



## Slipperz

Here's a link to todays Inside Business http://http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/613709

My only comment to make 100 words is that maybe PB has had a hard week on the veuve?


----------



## dogeatdog

Slipperz said:


> Interesting interview.
> 
> Less spin from PB and more hard facts.
> 
> One of my concerns with LNC has been the cash burn which is very high for a company that's hasn't made any revenue.
> 
> To hear PB this morning talking costs assuaged my fears somewhat.
> 
> He sounds like he is driving LNC to the most cost effective and profitable outcome for shareholders.
> 
> Offshore fabrication and modularisation of the gtl plant to save on capex is the go.
> 
> Sounds like the SA plant is a likely jv and given BP has a mou to buy 70% of all production they must be the most likely jv partner.
> 
> That will really derisk the development costs.
> 
> As for the gtl technology he sounds very confident in the process.
> 
> Why shouldn't he be sasol have been doing it for donkeys years.
> 
> LNC is really on track now imho and a great long term hold.




Nice to get further prospective from you guys.
Not so sure BP would be interested Slipperz, or indeed have the cash to get invloved at this stage, but maybe Shell, based on their pro environmental stance.
Missed the interview with pb, but will take a peek now.
Good day people


----------



## Slipperz

Being sure is what the markets are all about isn't it?

it seems the market isn't sure that Adani is going to mine the galillee tenement for 50-60 millon tonnes of coal pa.

The alternative is they have brought the tenements for half a billion dollars cash so they can have some nice hockey fields.

I hear the Indians play a mean game of hockey.

Personally i'm of the opinion  they are going to go all out to dig it up and ship it off to an energy hungry Indian power grid as soon as feasibly possible with all the resources at their disposal.

That is of course a bit of a rumour.

When the royalty stream is monetised or received that will be the fact.

On current market response roughly 2.5 billions dollars worth.

Either that coal is going to be very difficult and expensive to mine, Adani has no idea what they are buying or the Australian investment community has their heads up their arses.

i continue to hold LNC and my opinions reflect the above.


----------



## dogeatdog

Slipperz said:


> Being sure is what the markets are all about isn't it?
> 
> it seems the market isn't sure that Adani is going to mine the galillee tenement for 50-60 millon tonnes of coal pa.
> 
> The alternative is they have brought the tenements for half a billion dollars cash so they can have some nice hockey fields.
> 
> I hear the Indians play a mean game of hockey.
> 
> Personally i'm of the opinion  they are going to go all out to dig it up and ship it off to an energy hungry Indian power grid as soon as feasibly possible with all the resources at their disposal.
> 
> That is of course a bit of a rumour.
> 
> 
> When the royalty stream is monetised or received that will be the fact.
> 
> On current market response roughly 2.5 billions dollars worth.
> 
> Either that coal is going to be very difficult and expensive to mine, Adani has no idea what they are buying or the Australian investment community has their heads up their arses.
> 
> i continue to hold LNC and my opinions reflect the above.




Yes they are skillful with a stick and ball.
Let's just say logic seems to be lacking in the market at times.
I just hope the global investment community have their heads in the air going forward, and create a higher sp for us mildly frustrated share holders.


----------



## dogeatdog

According to a couple of NGO's based in europe, India is in the process of constructing 94 coal fired power generating stations. All to be completed and "on stream" by the end of 2013.
In addition, planning permission, and feasibility studies are in the works for a further 300, mainly coal fired plants.
They need coal fast!


----------



## Slipperz

dogeatdog said:


> According to a couple of NGO's based in europe, India is in the process of constructing 94 coal fired power generating stations. All to be completed and "on stream" by the end of 2013.
> In addition, planning permission, and feasibility studies are in the works for a further 300, mainly coal fired plants.
> They need coal fast! [/QUOTE
> 
> Rumours nothing more.
> 
> No value in that sort of talk.
> 
> None whatsoever.
> 
> Cash on the table now or no value.
> :


----------



## luckypaul

Bloomberg just released an article stating "*Linc Energy May Seek Partner for A$1 Billion Plant*" http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=axGHXRXb.RII

A bit strange as the last Limelight broadcast http://www.brr.com.au/event/66149/the-power-of-underground-coal-gasification said they had a lot of interest from third parties in a partnership but that Linc were not interested at this stage! From that I might guess that either:-


the expected build costs have increased (which we know to be true), 
they are not getting enough cash from their coal sales or....and I hope this is the reason, 
they are expecting to build more than one plant concurrently.

The latter is certainly very possible as they have potential sites in South Australia, Wyoming, possibly Alaska and have had a lot of interest from the Chinese and the Indians too. As long as the start was staggered that could work well especially if they do it phased which I have heard mentioned on Linc releases; i.e. UCG for power first then add the GTL module later. Cool!

I love Linc they are so sensible in their modular approach. :dance:


----------



## luckypaul

Mickel said:


> Just announced by Alan Kohler on ABC that he will have Peter Bond as a guest on Inside Business on ABC1 on Sunday at 10.00 am.
> 
> Hopefully this will spread the good news further and help push the S/P higher next week.




Here it is! Thanks for finding it Mickel. Mr Bond has a beard !!

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2010/s2976713.htm


----------



## basilio

Interesting interview with Peter Bond. One thing I noticed was almost the complete downplay of the CSG process. Seemed to suggest there just might not be enough money in it.

And yet the whole SA deal is based around building a 300-500 MW power station  fueled by CSG.  And perhaps even using alkaline fuel cells.

Maybe he is just playing possum at the moment. 

____________________________________________________

Will be interesting to see how the market opens tomorrow. At some stage the analysts and the various funds will have to start adding up the value and opportunities that LNC offers. Even it's only for the cash value of the coal sales


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Interesting interview with Peter Bond. One thing I noticed was almost the complete downplay of the CSG process. Seemed to suggest there just might not be enough money in it.
> 
> And yet the whole SA deal is based around building a 300-500 MW power station  fueled by CSG.  And perhaps even using alkaline fuel cells.
> 
> Maybe he is just playing possum at the moment.
> 
> ____________________________________________________
> 
> Will be interesting to see how the market opens tomorrow. At some stage the analysts and the various funds will have to start adding up the value and opportunities that LNC offers. Even it's only for the cash value of the coal sales




Firstly, just to clarify terms used, I'm sure Basilio, that you meant UCG (Underground Coal Gasification) and not CSG (Coal Seam Gas).

On reviewing the interview, I'm surprised that PB didn't mention the power option at Walloway Sth Aust and the AFC plant. Perhaps the selling price into the grid has changed or there is some work with the AFC cell that is incomplete but promising and will deserve its own announcement.

I think the S/P will benefit this week from the ABC interview and the reporting of that interview by Bloombergs.


----------



## basilio

> Firstly, just to clarify terms used, I'm sure Basilio, that you meant UCG (Underground Coal Gasification) and not CSG (Coal Seam Gas).





 Oops!!  Yes.  One can get too carried away with  acronyms. 
I'm inclined to think that the SA deal is close, is big and Bond doesn't want to expose it to to many competitors.


----------



## Calliope

basilio said:


> Interesting interview with Peter Bond. One thing I noticed was almost the complete downplay of the CSG process. Seemed to suggest there just might not be enough money in it.
> 
> And yet the whole SA deal is based around building a 300-500 MW power station  fueled by CSG.  And perhaps even using alkaline fuel cells.
> 
> Maybe he is just playing possum at the moment.




Bond will have plenty to worry about when the Greens get the balance of power in the senate. Anything to do with coal is an anathema to the Greens, no matter how clean the technology is.



> The Greens say the South Australian Government is taking a big backward step by promoting technology to turn coal into liquid fuels.
> 
> Linc Energy, which calls itself a clean coal company, plans to set up fuel refineries in the Arkaringa area of South Australia's far north.
> 
> The SA Government says that will create jobs.
> 
> Greens MP Mark Parnell thinks it will produce more greenhouse gas pollution.
> 
> "South Australia has always claimed leadership with renewable energy and with clean energy. This is a huge step backwards," he said.
> 
> "It's a dirty project that South Australia should not be supporting."




ABC News


----------



## Mickel

On ABC Radio 612 am very shortly (after 10.30am) Professor Chris Moran ( a UQ Professor in Centre for Water in Minerals Industry) will answer questions on UCG.


----------



## luckypaul

Latest Limelight Presentation from Rockhampton now out.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/67577/linc-energy-limelight-series-rockhampton

These always clarify many issues and well worth listening to. Enjoy!


----------



## basilio

> Bond will have plenty to worry about when the Greens get the balance of power in the senate. Anything to do with coal is an anathema to the Greens, no matter how clean the technology is.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Greens say the South Australian Government is taking a big backward step by promoting technology to turn coal into liquid fuels.
> 
> Linc Energy, which calls itself a clean coal company, plans to set up fuel refineries in the Arkaringa area of South Australia's far north.
> 
> The SA Government says that will create jobs.
> 
> Greens MP Mark Parnell thinks it will produce more greenhouse gas pollution.
> 
> "South Australia has always claimed leadership with renewable energy and with clean energy. This is a huge step backwards," he said.
> 
> "It's a dirty project that South Australia should not be supporting."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> There will have to be some good explanations by Peter Bond and LNC on the environmental credentials of UCG.  Actually I fundamentally agree with The Greens position on needing non polluting renewable energy for long term sustainability. LNC's position/argument is
> 
> 1) We face a critical shortage of oil based fuels in the next few years and Underground Coal to Oil technology is probably the only way to prevent a very sticky end to our current economic system
> 
> 2) The UCG  process  can capture CO2 more easily and thus produce electricity with far less greenhouse gas than other coal fired or even natural gas fired power stations
> 
> 3) Their UCG techology is well sorted out and they will not be causing damage to underground water supplies or creating subsidence .  (fingers crossed here...)
> 
> 4) The Alkaline Fuel Cell technology will be a brilliantly elegant solution to producing totally carbon free electricity.
> 
> 5) _ (Sotte voce There is a truck load of money in this deal. we want it..). _
> 
> Even if The Greens have the balance of power I couldn't see how they could stop any government approving  UCG-GTL plant if all the environmental considerations are ticked off. I think the energy security issue alone would tip the scales
Click to expand...


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Was anything mentioned about power generation and the role of the Alkaline Fuel Cell in producing clean electricity ?




Thinking more about why not much was said about power generation and nothing about AFC. The televised interview was reasonably short considering that there is so much happening with LINC. I think PB would have mentioned power generation with the AFC as it is so exciting and very environmentally friendly.

Perhaps the ABC edited it out because of time constraints or for some other reason?????


----------



## dogeatdog

Calliope said:


> Bond will have plenty to worry about when the Greens get the balance of power in the senate. Anything to do with coal is an anathema to the Greens, no matter how clean the technology is.
> 
> 
> 
> ABC News




Are the "Greens" Likely to get the "balance of power" in the Australian senate?

What other "Green" alternatives are out there, that can provide the future requirements for the worlds reliance on fossile fuels?

Ten years at the Chinchilla site must portray Linc are doing something right?
Credit where credits due


----------



## Calliope

dogeatdog said:


> Are the "Greens" Likely to get the "balance of power" in the Australian senate?




Almost certainly. Without Green preferences Labor has no chance. They have to kow tow to the Greens



> What other "Green" alternatives are out there, that can provide the future requirements for the worlds reliance on fossile fuels?




Not in our lifetime.



> Ten years at the Chinchilla site must portray Linc are doing something right?
> Credit where credits due




I still hold shares in Linc, but I sold off the bulk of my shares (40,000) when I saw the writing on the wall when Linc moved the bulk of their operations to S.A. hoping to escape the environmentalists.


----------



## Mickel

A new Limelight series presentation with Justyn Peters and Matt Buchanan held at Mackay Qld on 30 July. They discuss the UCG environment and refer to the Cougar Energy situation. Justyn mentioned that they offered technical assistance to Qld Govt to help manage the situation at Kingaroy if required. It is 75 minutes in length and I haven't listened to all of it yet.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/67577/linc-energy-limelight-series-mackay?popup=true&wl=76

Regarding my earlier post today on the radio interview with Prof Chris Moran, it was mentioned that he is the Chair of a 3 person panel set up by Qld Govt to review the UCG process with particular regard to the environment.

He gave an overview of the UCG process and answered questions from the interviewer only. In my view the main point is that his report will take at least 18 months to finalise.


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post on the latest Limelight presentation, one other main point that Justyn made was that there were many approaches from companies/governments around the world to license their IP on UCG and GTL technology. 
They are particularily concerned about doing this in China and Russia because of the security issues with their IP. At this stage, it won't happen anywhere in the short term.

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned before in this forum, but there is much work being done regarding carbon sequestration in depleting oil wells which helps to extract more oil while successfully sequestrating commercial quanities of CO2.

One such trial is in Wyoming (yes of all places where LNC has major coal tenements) -
"CCS world projects: Teapot Dome

The Department of Energy's (DOE) "Teapot Dome" oil field in Wyoming will anchor a pioneering scientific venture that ultimately could prove one option of large-scale, region-wide carbon sequestration. The project will be managed by DOE's RMOTC, which operates the Teapot Dome oil field. In managing the project, RMOTC will link the concepts of carbon sequestration and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) through under-ground injection of CO2 into older fields to boost production that has declined. The potential carbon sequestration of the project is anticipated to be at least 2.6 million tonnes of CO2 annually with a concurrent rise in related oil production of about 30,000 barrels a day, almost six times the current production level. CO2 injection began in 2006 and is to continue for seven to 10 years."

and another is in the Otway project in Western Victoria.

Check out both at - http://www.co2crc.com.au/demo/teapot_dome.html

Also I note that there is a Public Seminar on Carbon Sequestration at the Uni of Adelaide on Sept 1.

Very interesting  trials indeed and have huge potential for LNC imho.


----------



## basilio

The cheque has been cleared. $500 m in the bank. $2.5 bill more in the future. Plus other coal sales in the pipe line..

But LNC's shares still fell by up to 9.5cents today.  Just shows that in a very fragile, touchy market sentiment rules even over dollars.

I'd like to see Peter Bonds plans to "depression-proof" LNC. I think LNC is in the extremely rare company situation where it could  hold sufficient operating and investment funds to last until the certain operation of a cast iron  essential product - diesel fuel

We don't want to say it too loudly but I'm sure many investors  fear that the current recession in Amercia may get dramatically worse and that the consequences for most stocks that naturally rely on current sales to stay to profitable could be disastrous. Be great to have LNC out of that loop.


----------



## basilio

What an astounding performance by LNC today.

It open at $1.99 drops to S1.92-4  settles for 45 minutes and then does a swan dive to  $188.5. And this after the successful, wonderful  Gailee  coal sale.

At around 12.45 LNC announces that the $500 m cheque has been cleared. All sold. All silent. GREAT !!

So another surge in the next 20 minutes to $1.99 seemingly on the strength of this excellent confirmation.

*And then...From 1.30 to 4.15 it just keeps falling, falling, falling from $1.99 to finish with a sale of 670,000 shares at $1.86. *

I'm just so glad they didn't bank the full $2 billion or they would have been wiped off the bourse. 

Any thoughts on this ?


----------



## Slipperz

basilio said:


> What an astounding performance by LNC today.
> 
> It open at $1.99 drops to S1.92-4  settles for 45 minutes and then does a swan dive to  $188.5. And this after the successful, wonderful  Gailee  coal sale.
> 
> At around 12.45 LNC announces that the $500 m cheque has been cleared. All sold. All silent. GREAT !!
> 
> So another surge in the next 20 minutes to $1.99 seemingly on the strength of this excellent confirmation.
> 
> *And then...From 1.30 to 4.15 it just keeps falling, falling, falling from $1.99 to finish with a sale of 670,000 shares at $1.86. *
> 
> I'm just so glad they didn't bank the full $2 billion or they would have been wiped off the bourse.
> 
> Any thoughts on this ?




Our LNC can be a dangerously volatile stock to trade. 

I've had my greedy little fingers burned in the past.

Not too fussed on daily flucuations at the moment. I have divested my trading parcel at a tidy profit and am holding the rest  with a two to three year horizon.

Once the other asset sales are finalised, the Alaskan wells are drilled and a jv partner for the gtl plant is signed up look out!

Actually heard a whisper Vale might be in on this as a jv partner....

http://www.smh.com.au/business/vale-has-barely-scraped-surface-20100809-11u5a.html


----------



## Mr Z

basilio said:


> The cheque has been cleared. $500 m in the bank. $2.5 bill more in the future. Plus other coal sales in the pipe line..
> 
> But LNC's shares still fell by up to 9.5cents today.  Just shows that in a very fragile, touchy market sentiment rules even over dollars.




That is quite normal, *buy the rumor and sell the fact*, hopefully it will be a short pause around the $2 level. I am targeting $2.50 in the short/mid term where I think we should take a good break. We will see how quickly they can back this up with more good news! Its been a bit of a torrent of bad news so far this year, generally speaking, but oil is looking up and I think energy in general is due for some market attention soonish --> JMO.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> What an astounding performance by LNC today.
> 
> It open at $1.99 drops to S1.92-4  settles for 45 minutes and then does a swan dive to  $188.5. And this after the successful, wonderful  Gailee  coal sale.
> 
> At around 12.45 LNC announces that the $500 m cheque has been cleared. All sold. All silent. GREAT !!
> 
> So another surge in the next 20 minutes to $1.99 seemingly on the strength of this excellent confirmation.
> 
> *And then...From 1.30 to 4.15 it just keeps falling, falling, falling from $1.99 to finish with a sale of 670,000 shares at $1.86. *
> 
> I'm just so glad they didn't bank the full $2 billion or they would have been wiped off the bourse.
> 
> Any thoughts on this ?




Equally confused basilio.
The Linc sp is certainly sailing against the wind for some strange reason.
I seem to remember you memtioning the words "Rigged game"


----------



## ChrisV80

Slipperz said:


> Our LNC can be a dangerously volatile stock to trade.
> 
> I've had my greedy little fingers burned in the past.
> 
> Not too fussed on daily flucuations at the moment. I have divested my trading parcel at a tidy profit and am holding the rest  with a two to three year horizon.
> 
> Once the other asset sales are finalised, the Alaskan wells are drilled and a jv partner for the gtl plant is signed up look out!
> 
> Actually heard a whisper Vale might be in on this as a jv partner....
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/vale-has-barely-scraped-surface-20100809-11u5a.html




Interesting... very interesting !

The sooner they get a JV partner the better, it might be some time away before the gtl plant is built but it will hopefully be worth the wait for us all.


----------



## ChrisV80

Slipperz said:


> Our LNC can be a dangerously volatile stock to trade.
> 
> I've had my greedy little fingers burned in the past.
> 
> Not too fussed on daily flucuations at the moment. I have divested my trading parcel at a tidy profit and am holding the rest  with a two to three year horizon.
> 
> Once the other asset sales are finalised, the Alaskan wells are drilled and a jv partner for the gtl plant is signed up look out!
> 
> Actually heard a whisper Vale might be in on this as a jv partner....
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/vale-has-barely-scraped-surface-20100809-11u5a.html




Just reading the article again.. and got to this paragraph.

''_Vale now has an energy department as well. Before, it was about covering our cost of energy, but now it looks like it is going to be a business. We are trying to develop some technologies around coal to liquids, including a pilot plant in Mozambique and maybe Australia_"

Sounds to me they might setup their own gtl pilot plant rather than JV, they obviously have the money to do it? what do you think??


----------



## Calliope

dogeatdog said:


> Equally confused basilio.
> The Linc sp is certainly sailing against the wind for some strange reason.
> I seem to remember you memtioning the words "Rigged game"




There is nothing rigged about it. You will notice that there are many more sellers than buyers.

The sellers are taking every opportunity to bale out when there is a price jump. Many of them would be day traders.


----------



## Slipperz

ChrisV80 said:


> Just reading the article again.. and got to this paragraph.
> 
> ''_Vale now has an energy department as well. Before, it was about covering our cost of energy, but now it looks like it is going to be a business. We are trying to develop some technologies around coal to liquids, including a pilot plant in Mozambique and maybe Australia_"
> 
> Sounds to me they might setup their own gtl pilot plant rather than JV, they obviously have the money to do it? what do you think??




They would definitely have the capital, but do they have the technology? 

The synergy between the two is obvious.

Personally I would of thought if anyone was coming on board it would be BP  seeing as they have agreed to buy 70% of everything LNC can refine.

We'll have to wait and see I guess but with the cash in the bank now LNC is ready to move forward and make it happen.

Any jv would have to be on favourable terms to LNC or we can just monetise the royalty stream from Galillee and go it alone. 

Presuming the SA plant is the first built

Maybe the Powder River basin in the US might be first off the ground with a US partner?


I bet there are some interesting discussions in the LNC boardroom at the moment!


----------



## Mr Z

Calliope said:


> There is nothing rigged about it. You will notice that there are many more sellers than buyers.
> 
> The sellers are taking every opportunity to bale out when there is a price jump. Many of them would be day traders.




I was loading up around a $1! I unloaded a bunch in the $1.9x area and now have a free position in LNC. It is just logic... I bought the rumor and this time is turned out to be true... then I sold the fact! If the selling here gets too silly I will probably be a buyer again knowing/hoping that more good news is probable. Day trader, no! Position trader... yes!

In the wider time frame I love the LNC story, these guys are going places IMO.


----------



## basilio

It is intriguing that there still many more sellers than buyers for LNC. On pre opening it looks as if there will be further falls. Obviously the broader market is looking pretty sick but I would have thought that there would be a revaluation  of LNC's future after completion of the first coal sale and just looking at the cash backing for the shares.

Perhaps another great buying opportunity ?


----------



## mexican

Gap has been filled $1.70. Will be interesting to see if the SP closes today at or above $1.70...................................................................................


----------



## Mickel

Good news for the UCG industry with these DERM (Dept of Environment and Resource Management) press releases on 11 August 2010 -

*Cougar Energy CXY*
*Landholder bore restrictions removed near Kingaroy UCG plant.*

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/08/kingaroy-testing-11.html

*Carbon Energy.*
*Kogan Creek water tests indicate no concerns.*

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/08/kogan-creek-11.html


----------



## Mr Z

I see good support in the 1.69/65 area using a method that often works well for me. Immediately under that there is more, two bands in fact, reaching down to 1.56 which I would expect to be the worst of it if this immediate support area gives up the ghost. I think LNC will attract a reasonable amount of attention in this area given their changed circumstance. If we clear this area this method identifies a massive band of resistance in the 2.90 to 4.56 area. When the bands come in this wide the mid point is often a good target (3.73). Traditional T/A suggests 2.5x as the first hurdle and I would expect we take a break around there as it sticks out on the chart... but first we must nail $2! We where over done in the short term, IMO a bit of backing a filling around here would be very healthy. I am quite optimistic on this one mid term... if the market holds up! Bring on QEII Mr B!


----------



## Mr Z

Mickel said:


> Good news for the UCG industry with these DERM (Dept of Environment and Resource Management) press releases on 11 August 2010 -
> 
> *Cougar Energy CXY*
> *Landholder bore restrictions removed near Kingaroy UCG plant.*
> 
> http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/08/kingaroy-testing-11.html
> 
> *Carbon Energy.*
> *Kogan Creek water tests indicate no concerns.*
> 
> http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/media-room/2010/08/kogan-creek-11.html




Man did the media misreport all of that little episode.... they even had me worried at first! 

but a little frantic digging reassured me


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> I see good support in the 1.69/65 area using a method that often works well for me. Immediately under that there is more, two bands in fact, reaching down to 1.56 which I would expect to be the worst of it if this immediate support area gives up the ghost. I think LNC will attract a reasonable amount of attention in this area given their changed circumstance. If we clear this area this method identifies a massive band of resistance in the 2.90 to 4.56 area. When the bands come in this wide the mid point is often a good target (3.73). Traditional T/A suggests 2.5x as the first hurdle and I would expect we take a break around there as it sticks out on the chart... but first we must nail $2! We where over done in the short term, IMO a bit of backing a filling around here would be very healthy. I am quite optimistic on this one mid term... if the market holds up! Bring on QEII Mr B!




Very interesting Mr Z. Can you post some charts to demonstrate this please?
100 characters!! Perhaps one to show support level at 1.69/65 and one for the resistance level.


----------



## Mr Z

It will not be very clear but here it is. The differing colours indicate differing probable strength, if you look closely you can see we are in a large purple zone 1.79/1.56 indicating a strong but wide ranging support area, within that we have a blue zone demarking the range quoted and the one that I think has the best chance of holding near term. Its is confused by further support zones in the lower half of the purple zone... messy picture but in my world that gives a higher probability of the 1.56 area being the absolute worst of it and not overly likely at that. Top left you can see the massive day that defines the big purple range I quoted, not precise by any means but as I said the mid point marked in Grey often tends to be significant. In large red dashes I have marked more traditionally derived resistance areas, I consider them obvious really. You can also see the red and green support congestion around the $1 level that supported my description to buy and defined my stop loss areas.

I hope that helps some what!

Cheers
Z


----------



## basilio

It is an interesting set of observations on support levels for LNC.

Just a question. Is it reasonable to think that a series of re evaluations of LNC's prospects based on current cash assets as well as fully funded future projects could underpin the SP into the future ?   If for example  what would be the effect of 2-3 analysts saying  it was worth at least $4.00 a share based on direct coal sales and minimum development?


----------



## Mr Z

Yes.

All we are looking at here is market memory, there will enviably be a number of holders at these levels that will sell because they are returning to their entry and the whole down cycle has left them jaded. Like wise support kicks in where people previously missed out on what was considered a good value entry point. 

At any point in time a new fundamental fact can overwhelm these levels easily or we can simply exhaust the buyers/sellers at these levels. These levels have a habit of being sticky because after a bad price trip people often don't reappraise the situation logically and just act on the relief of seeing their capital returned. That said good news like we recently had will mean we can chew through the sellers far more rapidly. Look for volume increases into the levels for an indication of increased chances of breaking through each level. Look for volume decreases as we pull back from the levels indicating rejection of lower prices and another potential swing up and shot at the resistance level. (or down as the case maybe!) Also keep in mind once broken resistance tends to become support etc etc... again sorry if I am handing you eggs! New here!

*Sorry if I am teaching you to suck eggs here,* I believe support and resistance are among the most important T/A concepts and often over looked in favor of more complex indications.... me I am dumb so I KISS. 

A couple more good news stories and hopefully we should change the markets view of LNC, I think they are a winner but alas energy has not done well coming out out the GFC ---> but I think a change in that is due soon.

Looking a little bloodied ATM, hopefully a strong close after all the panic merchants on lunch breaks have sold out and gone back to work.


----------



## Mr Z

PS... Re the chart. You will also note that we have developed two recent what are now resistance levels which at there limits span 1.72-96. We will need to get back through them in short order before they get too sticky, any long delays will mean we will likely make more of a meal of the two dollar area... IMO.

On the positive side volume is falling away with the pullback from these levels meaning that we maybe exhausting the selling nice and quickly. Covering the gap is also something chartists like to see, however you might rationalize the need for that! I look at it as simply a support test, successfully holding is a good thing. So despite the tone of the day I am more inclined to buy rather that sell here.

but then again I am a holder of LNC so get the salt out!


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> I hope that helps some what!
> 
> Cheers
> Z




Thanks Z. It is good to see the T/A view with graphics.

I hope that we have at least 2 ASX announcements within the next 2 months stating that "Teresa" has sold for at least $500M cash and all tests with the AFC fuel cell have been completed and LNC will definately have a min 250MW power station at Oorroo in SA operating within 9 months.

If these or similar announcements are made it should be sufficient to jump start the S/P over $4.00 and those resistance levels.

Hopefully, we will have at least 1 analyst report before then which should give a 12 month target S/P of $10+ IMHO.

This is on LNC's website-
"In November 2009, Linc Energy announced it discovered a significant lignite coal exploration target of 1.0 to 1.3 billion tonnes. Further drilling is now underway in the Walloway Basin to gain technical details of the geology, formation structure and physical parameters of the coal. This work supports Linc Energy’s UCG team identify the most suitable sites for commercialisation in the basin. Work towards Linc Energy’s environmental approvals is also underway, as is the conceptual design study for Linc Energy’s first GTL commercial plant.

Linc Energy intends to execute a commercial UCG project for the Walloway Basin based on the following three stages:

    * Stage 1: Pre-production – including the construction and commissioning of UCG Generator 5 to gain valuable site specific UCG gas generation experience.
    * Stage 2: Power generation – including the production of approximately 15 petajoules per annum of UCG gas for up to 250 megawatts of power.
    * Stage 3: Increase UCG gas production to support GTL synthetic fuel production."

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pro-aus.php

PB's comments on Inside Business last Sunday may change where they set up the 1st GTL plant but they could still easily go ahead with the power generation in Sth Aust.


----------



## Mickel

Thinking about LNC's sale of "Galilee" for $500M cash and a royalty stream of about $2.5B. LNC says they can monetise this royalty stream for about $1B.

The question is - Which is the most tax effective way to receive the royalties, over the 20yrs of production or getting the $1B now ???

Given that LNC probably has about $300M in exploration expenses to date, they would only pay tax on $200 M of the $500M received to date- ie $60M.

But if they monetised the royalties in the current F/Y would they pay 30% on the full $1B , ie $300M ?

Anyone (particularily Accountants) like to comment ??


----------



## basilio

Was having a scout around the AFC website and they are certainly moving quickly on the development of their product.  Given that LNC is one of their partners and has rights to distribution and use of the technology it looks promising.

Check out the video on the front page called AFC energy techmology

http://www.afcenergy.com/


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Was having a scout around the AFC website and they are certainly moving quickly on the development of their product.  Given that LNC is one of their partners and has rights to distribution and use of the technology it looks promising.
> 
> Check out the video on the front page called AFC energy techmology
> 
> http://www.afcenergy.com/




Good find, Basilio. That video and also the other 2 (Sir David King & Presentation) are very informative and highlight the value of the agreement between LNC and AFC Energy.

I think it's been mentioned on this thread before but it's worth repeating. Combining UCG and the AFC fuel cell can produce power at less than 4p (AUD $0.07) per KWh . This is stated about 5 min 37 sec into the Presentation video.

Given that the exclusive agreement initially is for only 2 yrs from Dec 2009, I'm sure LNC will want to have a commercial plant up and running well before (6 months) Dec 2011.


----------



## Mickel

Also on the AFC Energy website is an analyst report by Allenby Capital


*AFC Energy plc (AFC.L)
Interims show costs under control, Linc trial done
AFC is on track to commercialise its low-cost, alkaline fuel-cell technology for mainstream clean energy generation. Interims demonstrate firm cost control, with 2010 cash burn set to come in below £2.8m. In June, AFC successfully produced power from Underground Coal Gasification (“UCG”) operations on site at Linc Energy (“Linc”). Forecast roll-out of UCG with Linc, in which carbon capture is free, generates potential 20yr cash flow that supports our fair value of £207m. This assumes a 22% WACC, no green credits, no maintenance income and no growth after 4.2GW of UCG is running by 2021. In the coming year we look for long term operation of AFC’s technology with chlor alkali partner Akzo Nobel to unlock value in all target markets. We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and 137p target price.
*
Interims confirm solid cost control. AFC’s interim numbers were in line with expectations with no real surprises. Cash out for the period was £1.37m. This corresponds with a sub £2.8m annual burn; far lower than many of AFC’s AIM listed clean-tech peers, which have more capital intensive business models and more challenging target markets. With £2.68m in the bank at the end of the period and the anticipated £2m from Linc Energy in the coming 6-12 months to maintain exclusivity, we see no immediate funding requirement.
Power produced with AFC technology from UCG Syngas at Linc. In June, AFC successfully deployed its technology to generate power from syngas made by the UCG process. The trial took place at Linc’s operating UCG facility in Chinchilla, Australia (ASX: LNC, www.lincenergy.com.au). This verifies the plausibility of combining AFC’s technology with UCG operations to produce cheap power from coal with total carbon capture. It also strengthens the AFC/Linc relationship as both companies look to move this potentially world changing technology marriage into mainstream power generation. We expect to see this strengthened further when Linc exercises its option over £2m of AFC equity to maintain exclusivity in the coming 6-12 months on the completed sale of one or more of its major coal assets.

*Projected 4.2GW Linc UCG roll-out by 2021. Based on Linc’s objectives we project 4.2GW of UCG sites throughout Australia, Europe and the US by 2021. *In December 2009, Linc signed a deal with AFC giving Linc exclusive rights to deploy AFC's technology for power generation at these sites. Sales of a 50kW modular system by AFC to Linc at £35K on a 43% margin and a 10% royalty to AFC on power produced, generate 20yr cash flow for AFC with a NPV of £157m.
Third party expert predicts commercialisation within 2 years. “It is my firm opinion, based on a number of reviews of the progress of the company, that it has consolidated the learning that it has gained from its early system development to design a truly scalable alkaline fuel cell power system that will satisfy its clients requirements…….There is no obvious reason why the company should not be successful in commercialising the system within the two year timeframe it is predicting.” These are selected quotes from Dr John Helliwell of the Centre for Process Innovation (CPI), who conducted an independent technology and business review on AFC in April this year.

I'd like to see an analyst's report on LNC based on power plants building up to 4.2GW pa by 2021.  *$$$$$$$$$$$$$$*


----------



## profitmann

No one in Australia will achieve a 50MTA Coal Mine within the next 10 years. Do your royalty caclculations again guys on max 20MTA at best. Rest is dreamland as Infrastrucure will never support 50MTA Coal Mine in this State.


----------



## namrog

Understandably there is a lot of chatter re LNC these days, most of it  speculation and guess work.....

Have a look at this little chart and tell us what you think,  !!

It could be while before we see a substancial rise in share price from here, me thinks....


----------



## Mickel

namrog said:


> Understandably there is a lot of chatter re LNC these days, most of it  speculation and guess work.....
> 
> Have a look at this little chart and tell us what you think,  !!
> 
> It could be while before we see a substancial rise in share price from here, me thinks....




If a Director OR their indirect interests have a liquidity problem, it doesn't necessarily equate that the company's S/P will be limited to the Director's selling price.

I've seen a classic case in the last 12 months where a Director sold down and the Company subsequently had a friendly takeover at 100% + premium of the Director's selling price.


----------



## Slipperz

Mickel said:


> Also on the AFC Energy website is an analyst report by Allenby Capital
> 
> 
> *AFC Energy plc (AFC.L)
> Interims show costs under control, Linc trial done
> AFC is on track to commercialise its low-cost, alkaline fuel-cell technology for mainstream clean energy generation. Interims demonstrate firm cost control, with 2010 cash burn set to come in below £2.8m. In June, AFC successfully produced power from Underground Coal Gasification (“UCG”) operations on site at Linc Energy (“Linc”). Forecast roll-out of UCG with Linc, in which carbon capture is free, generates potential 20yr cash flow that supports our fair value of £207m. This assumes a 22% WACC, no green credits, no maintenance income and no growth after 4.2GW of UCG is running by 2021. In the coming year we look for long term operation of AFC’s technology with chlor alkali partner Akzo Nobel to unlock value in all target markets. We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and 137p target price.
> *
> Interims confirm solid cost control. AFC’s interim numbers were in line with expectations with no real surprises. Cash out for the period was £1.37m. This corresponds with a sub £2.8m annual burn; far lower than many of AFC’s AIM listed clean-tech peers, which have more capital intensive business models and more challenging target markets. With £2.68m in the bank at the end of the period and the anticipated £2m from Linc Energy in the coming 6-12 months to maintain exclusivity, we see no immediate funding requirement.
> Power produced with AFC technology from UCG Syngas at Linc. In June, AFC successfully deployed its technology to generate power from syngas made by the UCG process. The trial took place at Linc’s operating UCG facility in Chinchilla, Australia (ASX: LNC, www.lincenergy.com.au). This verifies the plausibility of combining AFC’s technology with UCG operations to produce cheap power from coal with total carbon capture. It also strengthens the AFC/Linc relationship as both companies look to move this potentially world changing technology marriage into mainstream power generation. We expect to see this strengthened further when Linc exercises its option over £2m of AFC equity to maintain exclusivity in the coming 6-12 months on the completed sale of one or more of its major coal assets.
> 
> *Projected 4.2GW Linc UCG roll-out by 2021. Based on Linc’s objectives we project 4.2GW of UCG sites throughout Australia, Europe and the US by 2021. *In December 2009, Linc signed a deal with AFC giving Linc exclusive rights to deploy AFC's technology for power generation at these sites. Sales of a 50kW modular system by AFC to Linc at £35K on a 43% margin and a 10% royalty to AFC on power produced, generate 20yr cash flow for AFC with a NPV of £157m.
> Third party expert predicts commercialisation within 2 years. “It is my firm opinion, based on a number of reviews of the progress of the company, that it has consolidated the learning that it has gained from its early system development to design a truly scalable alkaline fuel cell power system that will satisfy its clients requirements…….There is no obvious reason why the company should not be successful in commercialising the system within the two year timeframe it is predicting.” These are selected quotes from Dr John Helliwell of the Centre for Process Innovation (CPI), who conducted an independent technology and business review on AFC in April this year.
> 
> I'd like to see an analyst's report on LNC based on power plants building up to 4.2GW pa by 2021.  *$$$$$$$$$$$$$$*




Holy moly 4.2 GW is a huge number. 

Then again so is 20 000 barrels of diesel a day in two locations globally with a massive Alaskan gas field in production! 

Doesn't hurt to think positive does it? 

Oh wait I forgot that royalty stream of 100 million a year for doing nothing my bad 

With half a billion in the bank and another half a billion on the table waiting for a signature I think I have the patience to stick with LNC for a while....


----------



## namrog

Mickel said:


> I've seen a classic case in the last 12 months where a Director sold down and the Company subsequently had a friendly takeover at 100% + premium of the Director's selling price.




There are always exceptions, I just think it's not a good look.

I've been thinking about the deal that's been done, and if linc are serious about ctl surely it's best to take the cash now and get on with the job, because I'm hearing that it will be 5 to 7 years before the Adani boys ship any coal...

I'd really like to see from management now a plan of action going forward, with the final goal of a comercial liquid plant, laid out step by step including estimated time to completion, regardless of where it's located.


----------



## Smurf1976

To put that 4.2GW in perspective:

About the same as the total generating capacity in South-West WA (Perth etc).

About the same as the entire generating capacity in South Australia.

If run as baseload plant, would supply about one sixth of the average demand in Qld, NSW, ACT, Vic, Tas and SA combined.


----------



## basilio

> Projected 4.2GW Linc UCG roll-out by 2021. Based on Linc’s objectives we project 4.2GW of UCG sites throughout Australia, Europe and the US by 2021




This is a 12 year projection across 3 continents! HUGE amount of fudge possibilities.

As Smurf points out 4.2 GW represents a significant but not overwhelming amount of the current energy supply in Australia alone - let alone the energy requirements 10 years into the future across  Asia, America  Australia and wherever.  Seems quite feasible if the first ones work, the figures are right and we are all looking for pollution free electricity.


----------



## Mickel

namrog said:


> I've been thinking about the deal that's been done, and if linc are serious about ctl surely it's best to take the cash now and get on with the job, because I'm hearing that it will be 5 to 7 years before the Adani boys ship any coal...
> 
> I'd really like to see from management now a plan of action going forward, with the final goal of a comercial liquid plant, laid out step by step including estimated time to completion, regardless of where it's located.




The Australian on Aug 4 stated that the earliest coal shipments from Galilee would be in 2014 because of lack of infrastructure. So 5-7 years was always a realistic timeframe. The royalty stream would also be a reassuring backstop for bankers looking to finance any projects for LINC-
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-386.pdf

Considering what PB stated in the Inside Business interview on ABC1 last Sunday, LINC have many variables to work through before deciding where to site the 1st GTL plant. Once that decision is made, I think there will be a flurry of announcements stating their plans and rollout timeframes. We already know that the planned construction period for a 20,000bpd GTL plant is 20 months (mentioned again in the interview last Sunday).The main hiccup could be Govt approval holdups (also mentioned last Sunday).

Also, if any analyst reports are published before the above, they could give indications of LINC's plans and timeframes.

While many long time LNC shareholders (myself included) are frustrated with the delay of the commercial GTL plant, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting bigger and bigger.


----------



## Mr Z

Coal is so disliked that they really need to work on selling this process to the public. You get the impression that Obama would shut all  US coal down in a blink of an eye if he could, purely for political purposes. This is one of the few things that concerns me with LNC, political risk... LOL they didn't trust the QLD government and as it turns out that is looking like reasonable call. I would love to see them really start to sell the idea to the public... maybe I worry too much.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mr Z said:


> Coal is so disliked that they really need to work on selling this process to the public. You get the impression that Obama would shut all  US coal down in a blink of an eye if he could, purely for political purposes. This is one of the few things that concerns me with LNC, political risk... LOL they didn't trust the QLD government and as it turns out that is looking like reasonable call. I would love to see them really start to sell the idea to the public... maybe I worry too much.




Obama, like so many other US presidents, promised much, and has achieved little (thus far).
With the recent BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, coupled with Americas desire to be less reliant on their traditional suppliers of hydro carbons, one would hope Obama and his merry men would welcome the type of technology
that comanies like Linc have to offer.
We live in hope MR Z 
Your recent comments ard charts were very informative, thank you.

Here's hoping for a positive week for Linc. 
I am a holder of LNC shares.

Onward MR Bond!


----------



## Mr Z

dogeatdog said:


> ....Obama and his merry men would welcome the type of technology...




Yup that would be logical wouldn't it but..... ?! California especially seems to operate in some political twilight zone, one wonders if that "through the looking glass" outlook is not becoming pervasive. I keep telling myself that energy reality has to smack the US around the chops sooner of later but not so so far!

Vaiting vatching!

Charts... are no problem, anytime, just ask  I welcome others charts as well, always good to see peoples thoughts.


----------



## Huitzii

Mr Z said:


> Charts... are no problem, anytime, just ask  I welcome others charts as well, always good to see peoples thoughts.





Here is my take on LYC on a more short term T/A scale, Ive been watching it for a while now but I haven't entered as of yet but that's not to say that I wont in the future if the opportunity presents itself.
LYC is trading outside its recent lower trendline, hovering on the $1.71 resistance and has been travelling sideways from 2/8/2010 to present ,between $2.00 and $1.71.
MACD is not in a positive stance.
Volume is declining ATM aswell.
10,68 and 90 day average are still heading in a northerly direction.
From my point of view it needs to show a clear positive direction either way.
From here it could break up or down ,but from recent announcements I would like to think that it will head north ....time will tell,the market will decide this week I would think.
This is a non bias non holder view,and is only my opinion,please dont act on my thoughts as im often wrong 
DYOR


----------



## Mr Z

Thanks... 

I see falling volume onto a support level as a positive thing, we are consolidating the recent gains IMO. The next attempt at higher numbers should be telling, I will be looking for an indication of the sort of strength we are dealing with here.

I own.


----------



## Slipperz

Adani is getting set at their end with port infrastructure.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/metals--mining/Adani-to-commission-1st-phase-of-Dahej-terminal-by-month-end/articleshow/6313830.cms


----------



## Huitzii

Hahahaha sorry guys in my last post in the text I have put LYC instead of LNC my appolagies  ..just a Typo but my chart and thoughts are both for LNC.
DYOR


----------



## awg

Mickel said:


> Considering what PB stated in the Inside Business interview on ABC1 last Sunday, LINC have many variables to work through before deciding where to site the 1st GTL plant. Once that decision is made, I think there will be a flurry of announcements stating their plans and rollout timeframes. We already know that the planned construction period for a 20,000bpd GTL plant is 20 months (mentioned again in the interview last Sunday).The main hiccup could be Govt approval holdups (also mentioned last Sunday).
> 
> 
> While many long time LNC shareholders (myself included) are frustrated with the delay of the commercial GTL plant, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting bigger and bigger.




Given LNC interests in Vietnam, along with its large population, and heavy reliance on imported diesel, wonder whether they have it as plan B for a commercial GTL plant, if Australian regulatory hurdles are too high.

I doubt that Vietnam would make things difficult in that sense and Capex might be less as well, especially once the trial plant/process is proven up in SA


----------



## basilio

> Given LNC interests in Vietnam, along with its large population, and heavy reliance on imported diesel, wonder whether they have it as plan B for a commercial GTL plant, if Australian regulatory hurdles are too high.
> 
> I doubt that Vietnam would make things difficult in that sense and Capex might be less as well, especially once the trial plant/process is proven up in SA




Sounds good on paper but I thought there was some mention of slow progress in Vietnam ?  Can't quite remember it exactly but feel sure there was  a comment to that effect.


----------



## Mickel

awg said:


> Given LNC interests in Vietnam, along with its large population, and heavy reliance on imported diesel, wonder whether they have it as plan B for a commercial GTL plant, if Australian regulatory hurdles are too high.
> 
> I doubt that Vietnam would make things difficult in that sense and Capex might be less as well, especially once the trial plant/process is proven up in SA




I understand that Vietnam has severe power rationing and theri need for power is greater than the need for diesel.

Quote  Basilio
"Sounds good on paper but I thought there was some mention of slow progress in Vietnam ? Can't quite remember it exactly but feel sure there was a comment to that effect."

I have heard that too Basilio. I think it was Justyn Peters at the Melbourne Limelight presentation in June. The comment was along the lines of "the holdup is not because of LNC but Govt approvals have been slower than expected".

I think their 1st GTL commercial plant will be in Australia or the USA because of better legal security for their Intellectual Property.


----------



## luckypaul

A positive Analyst report from Austock Securities (A 'Buy' with a 12mth price target of $3.05).  http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/1231411/LNC_Initiating_Report_160810.pdf

Lets hope the market listens....


----------



## basilio

> A positive Analyst report from Austock Securities (A 'Buy' with a 12mth price target of $3.05). http://www.vision6.com.au/download/f...ort_160810.pdf
> 
> Lets hope the market listens....




That is a very comprehensive report Lucky Paul.  One surprise however was the complete failure to discuss the AFC technology and the opportunities it offers to provide totally clean electricity.  I see it as a surprise given the  research they say they have done and the success of the fuel cell to this stage.  And if we to believe LNC they are  seeing the fuel cell as an important part of their future. (see previous posts on AFC technology)


----------



## basilio

Oops !  Just found a reference to the Fuel Cell technology in the report. Very low key though and didn't highlight the  fact that LNC does have an pilot fuel cell in operation.

Also noted that the GTL plant is now projected at 4000 bpd rather than the 20000 bpd previously suggested.  Looks as if the smaller modular plants are the go.


----------



## basilio

Did anyone else spot the other recent post coal sale analyst report ?  It was done by BBY (which were one of the original strong supporters of LNC)

Short story is that they have a $2.00 share value with only a HOLD statement on LNC.  They feature a close analysis of the GTL process with reviews of what has been happening around the world with other similar plants.

They almost totally discount LNC's other coal, gas and oil tenements an  have a huge discount figure on the coal royalties. All very interesting. 

So where is the 3rd report ?
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-25.pdf


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Did anyone else spot the other recent post coal sale analyst report ?  It was done by BBY (which were one of the original strong supporters of LNC)
> 
> Short story is that they have a $2.00 share value with only a HOLD statement on LNC.  They feature a close analysis of the GTL process with reviews of what has been happening around the world with other similar plants.
> 
> They almost totally discount LNC's other coal, gas and oil tenements an  have a huge discount figure on the coal royalties. All very interesting.
> 
> So where is the 3rd report ?
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-25.pdf




Amazing how totally different pictures are painted in the two reports.
Some middle ground needed perhaps in a3rd?
I've never wished for higher oil prices, but it seems that's what's required to maintain the current LNC sp, at least until a further tenement sale is announced.
LNC share holder.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Did anyone else spot the other recent post coal sale analyst report ?  It was done by BBY (which were one of the original strong supporters of LNC)
> 
> Short story is that they have a $2.00 share value with only a HOLD statement on LNC.  They feature a close analysis of the GTL process with reviews of what has been happening around the world with other similar plants.
> 
> They almost totally discount LNC's other coal, gas and oil tenements an  have a huge discount figure on the coal royalties. All very interesting.
> 
> So where is the 3rd report ?
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-25.pdf




The BBY analyst report is very informative on the GTL plant construction costs around the world today. Unfortunately it is not good news. It is also disappointing that they only attribute $0.20 per share value to LNC's GTL process and, as you say Basilio, heavily discount other assets especially the royalties.

It will be interesting to see if the US analyst, Merriman Curhan Ford &Co will give an update report that covers all assets in a realistic way.

I think LNC management need to-
- expedite commercial Syngas trials in Sth Aust
- push hard for Sth Aust approvals for initial 200MW Power Station with AFC
- build 5000 BPD GTL Plant in Asia ASAP and put it in Sth Aust
- Announce such plans

In this way they may overcome most doubters and DE-RISK the company to a great extent, even if the GTL plant costs $50M more than they would like.

I must say the Austock Report was very comprehensive (apart for the AFC power plants) and did give some indication of LNC's plans and timetables (more than LNC itself has given).


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> I must say the Austock Report was very comprehensive (apart for the AFC power plants) and did give some indication of LNC's plans and timetables (more than LNC itself has given).




I wonder how much input LNC had to this analysis? Or in fact to any reports? Any thoughts ?


----------



## calais

In regards to the Federal Election this weekend, would a Labor victory be better for Linc or does it depend on state governments in South Aust and Queensland?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> I wonder how much input LNC had to this analysis? Or in fact to any reports? Any thoughts ?




I think that they cooperated to a large extent, even courted Austock to provide analyst reports. While LNC would have emphasised certain parts of their business, I'm not sure if this included the AFC Energy alliance.

Perhaps LNC said that they were still testing and would make further announcements on which to make projections... OR

perhaps LNC did highlight the alliance but Austock largely ignored it in their projections as there is no comparative operation on which to value it.

Also, as this was Austock's first report on LNC, they have decided to be very conservative while suggesting the valuation could be ramped up markedly as various plans are "Derisked".

As I stated earlier, I think LNC has to get the initial 200 MW power station with the AFC technology in Sth Aust started ASAP. Then build the 5000bpd GTL plant (probably in Asia) and site it next to the power station as quickly as possible to prove the whole concept.

I imagine the 5,000bpd GTL plant would cost somewhere around $300M from what PB said last week regarding a 20,000bpd plant (ie "trying to keep costs around $1B"). The 5,000 plant would be a bit more than a quarter of the 20,000 cost. That should be easily doable financially and the 5,000bpd plant will be more manageable (and quicker to build) to start up. LNC can then improve on the first one with the experience gained. 

All IMHO and I hold.


----------



## Mickel

calais said:


> In regards to the Federal Election this weekend, would a Labor victory be better for Linc or does it depend on state governments in South Aust and Queensland?




A Liberal win would probably be better as the Mining Tax would be scrapped.

But in the immediate future the Sth Aust Labour Party is probably more important, and they appear to be very supportive of LNC.
Also, from the Austock Report, Sth Aust will need more "green friendly" power.


----------



## Jonathan111

Kolkata, Aug. 14

Rajasthan State Petroleum Corporation Ltd (RSPCL) — a wholly-owned subsidiary of the state-owned Rajasthan State Mines and Minerals Ltd — has received expression of interests (EoI) from 13 companies for *underground coal gasification (UCG) programmes in the lignite deposits *of Barmer-Sanchore and Bikaner-Nagpur basins in western Rajasthan.

*UCG* projects produce *syn-gas* (a mixture of various amounts of carbon-dioxide and hydrogen) having lower energy density than natural gas that is often used as fuel. The gas may also be used as an intermediate for producing *synthetic petroleum*. According to a company official, RSPCL will form a joint venture with two-three selected bidders and seek lignite blocks from the Centre for undertaking UCG projects in the 1,100 sq km area in two basins. The official said that among the prominent bidders are: *Adani Power*, Tata Power, Essar, Shiv-Vani, Abhijeet group, JSW Energy and Simon India Ltd (a wholly-owned project management subsidiary of Zuari Industries of the K K Birla group).

Essar has interest across the energy vertical. Shiv-Vani is mostly into drilling services. Abhijeet group has interests in metals and power sector. Adani, Tata Power and JSW Energy are major players in power generation. “All the 13 participants will now be asked to *prove their technical eligibility *in undertaking such projects. Based on technical expertise, we will shortlist two-three bidders to form *joint ventures*,” the RSPCL official told Business Line.

The PSU issued the tender seeking EoIs for UCG on June 12. Though initially the tender was scheduled to be closed on July 12, RSPCL extended the date to August 12. *Underground coal gasification is considered as an uncharted territory in India.* In 2004, oil and gas major ONGC mooted a UCG programme with technical support from the Stochinsky Institute of Russia in the coal-rich eastern region of the country. The company had entered into an MoU with Coal India Ltd for the project. In 2005, ONGC proposed a pilot UCG project in lignite-rich Tamil Nadu in collaboration with Neyveli Lignite Corporation. However, since then ONGC has not announced any progress in the projects.


----------



## dogeatdog

Jonathan111 said:


> Kolkata, Aug. 14
> 
> Rajasthan State Petroleum Corporation Ltd (RSPCL) ”” a wholly-owned subsidiary of the state-owned Rajasthan State Mines and Minerals Ltd ”” has received expression of interests (EoI) from 13 companies for *underground coal gasification (UCG) programmes in the lignite deposits *of Barmer-Sanchore and Bikaner-Nagpur basins in western Rajasthan.
> 
> *UCG* projects produce *syn-gas* (a mixture of various amounts of carbon-dioxide and hydrogen) having lower energy density than natural gas that is often used as fuel. The gas may also be used as an intermediate for producing *synthetic petroleum*. According to a company official, RSPCL will form a joint venture with two-three selected bidders and seek lignite blocks from the Centre for undertaking UCG projects in the 1,100 sq km area in two basins. The official said that among the prominent bidders are: *Adani Power*, Tata Power, Essar, Shiv-Vani, Abhijeet group, JSW Energy and Simon India Ltd (a wholly-owned project management subsidiary of Zuari Industries of the K K Birla group).
> 
> Essar has interest across the energy vertical. Shiv-Vani is mostly into drilling services. Abhijeet group has interests in metals and power sector. Adani, Tata Power and JSW Energy are major players in power generation. “All the 13 participants will now be asked to *prove their technical eligibility *in undertaking such projects. Based on technical expertise, we will shortlist two-three bidders to form *joint ventures*,” the RSPCL official told Business Line.
> 
> The PSU issued the tender seeking EoIs for UCG on June 12. Though initially the tender was scheduled to be closed on July 12, RSPCL extended the date to August 12. *Underground coal gasification is considered as an uncharted territory in India.* In 2004, oil and gas major ONGC mooted a UCG programme with technical support from the Stochinsky Institute of Russia in the coal-rich eastern region of the country. The company had entered into an MoU with Coal India Ltd for the project. In 2005, ONGC proposed a pilot UCG project in lignite-rich Tamil Nadu in collaboration with Neyveli Lignite Corporation. However, since then ONGC has not announced any progress in the projects.




Makes you wonder if PB has discussed a JV with MR Adani.
Based on the above article, it appears the UGC technology that LNC have been perfecting, may be of interest.
LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

One thing that still troubles me is the weight of sellers over buyers for LNC. We are talking of almost 3 to 1 ratio which suggest there are a lot more people wanting to get out rather than in. 

If we believe that LNC is now financially secure with a promising technology and excellent prospects you hope there was some rethinking of it's desirability as part of a share portfolio.

Today at 9.18

105 buyers for 765258 units


235 sellers for 2281113 units


----------



## brty

basilio,

I do not think you need to pay any credence to those depth of market figures. When you think about how large operators behave in the market, the last thing they want to do is tip their hand. What physically happens is that the sell side can/is stacked with orders at a higher price when the operator wants to buy. Of course as the price rises the orders are pulled.

If you look through the changes in substantial holders notices, you often see where large holders who have been raising their levels of a stock (this applies to all stocks), have some sales in there. If you go back to the dates of the sales you often see that it is when the market has risen too quickly (for them to get their full order), and they sell some shares to scare the rabbits and lower the price for more purchases later on. The whole process of acquiring stock can take months for very large players, and their traders are usually very good at forcing prices through 'pivotal' technical prices.

brty


----------



## Mr Z

It is hard to base a lot on market depth as many players will not show their hands. I for one rarely do, I watch then hit it when my price gets hit and I am seeing the action I want to see. *However the likes of me don't count!*

If there is big accumulation/distribution going on for an account it will often be fed into the market in small parcels at intervals that suit the turn over rate. On the very odd occasion I have seen it clearly when a company has gone into a halt and someone has forgotten to stop the computer buying/selling. On the last occasion it was selling and the ask got driven down to about 1% of the last sale. About every 20 seconds a parcel of something like 367 shares was added to the ask at a slightly lower price. In normal trading you'd have not seen it because the volume was high enough to disguise it and the price was stable enough that the ask stayed around the same range. Only when the computer was sitting there out bidding itself did it drive the ask to a silly level. In the end they woke up and the asks disappeared in a flash and all was back to normal before we came out of the halt.

Anyway, the point is that the big players have better tools than we do so unless they want to be seen they can remain invisible to the likes of us. So you can't always put a lot of stock in market depth.



Edit: What brty said too...!


----------



## basilio

brty said:


> basilio,
> 
> I do not think you need to pay any credence to those depth of market figures. When you think about how large operators behave in the market, the last thing they want to do is tip their hand. What physically happens is that the sell side can/is stacked with orders at a higher price when the operator wants to buy. Of course as the price rises the orders are pulled.
> 
> If you look through the changes in substantial holders notices, you often see where large holders who have been raising their levels of a stock (this applies to all stocks), have some sales in there. If you go back to the dates of the sales you often see that it is when the market has risen too quickly (for them to get their full order), and they sell some shares to scare the rabbits and lower the price for more purchases later on. The whole process of acquiring stock can take months for very large players, and their traders are usually very good at forcing prices through 'pivotal' technical prices.
> 
> brty





Thanks for that.  I  can certainly see your point. Still wondering though if there is some actual imbalance with LNC in terms of market perception. 

_____________________________________________________________
In relation To Mr Z

Certainly makes one realise the different levels at work in the marketplace. I suppose it calls into question how much transparency there is in the stock market.


----------



## Mr Z

basilio said:


> Certainly makes one realise the different levels at work in the marketplace. I suppose it calls into question how much transparency there is in the stock market.




Not enough transparency for sure.... it may appear to be a level playing field at first but it is not really! I am also dead certain there are many subtleties to the way the big guys trade that I/we are completely unaware of! I have seen plenty of big stink bids and blocking bids used... something that is not supposed to be legal but in watching its hard to come to any other conclusion!

Such is life.... we are gold fish in a shark pool, learn to swim FAST!


----------



## luckypaul

> If you look through the changes in substantial holders notices, you often see where large holders who have been raising their levels of a stock (this applies to all stocks), have some sales in there.




Anyone know at what levels 'substantial holdings' have to be made public and where we can see Linc's main holders at any point in time?


----------



## Mr Z

Luckypaul, I answered you before but the mods saw fit to delete it and warn me because the answer to your question, which is 5%, by the way, is not 100 chars of content.

So there you have it.... 5% wrapped in enough 'stuff' to keep a bureaucrat happy!


----------



## Mickel

luckypaul said:


> Anyone know at what levels 'substantial holdings' have to be made public and where we can see Linc's main holders at any point in time?




Further to Mr Z's reply, the top 20 shareholders of any public company are listed in the annual report each year. Apart from that, with Commsec click on "Research" and then "Shareholders" to see current situation for holders above the 5% limit.


----------



## luckypaul

Thanks for the feedback on "substantial shareholders" Mr Z and Mickel. I couldn't access Commsec as I am guessing your directions were for members Mickel? I don't have access to Commsec as I am British, living in Bangkok trading from accounts in Hong Kong and Luxembourg - hey that makes me sound rather dubious! 

Anyway the Linc Annual Report is due next month although as it only goes to the end of June 2010, I doubt it will contain any surprises. That should show top holders as Mickel suggests.

I have been a Linc holder to varying degrees for over 3 years now and agree with comments that the price is behaving strangely now compared to the past. I guess now is the time that funds would be buying in if they are going to, although at these daily volumes it'll take them rather a long time to build up any significant holdings.

I am looking forward to the results of the Australian election this weekend, in the hope that the mining tax could take a tumble and give Linc a boost. It should certainly be nearer to $2.50 by now for sure.

I have an idea that Vale may be buying the remaining 2 coal tenements and announce a partnership with Linc in their first commercial GTL plant at the same time. If that is anywhere near a possibility I am guessing 5-6 weeks after the election to get any deal thru (a new?) FIRB. I certainly wish it could be sooner as September/October are statistically favourites for a nasty correction.  This is all complete speculation of course , not too many Brazilians in Bangkok to squeeze for information! 

Having said that, I do have contacts in oil and gas here and they have told me that Linc Energy have been in Thailand (2 weeks ago), talking to companies regarding the fabrication of modules for their GTL plant. I am informed they didn't make progress here so I hope they have better luck elsewhere in Asia - somewhere with stronger quality control perhaps (and definitely NOT China)! Time will tell and I have fingers crossed for a good results. I am in Linc for the long run but I could do with my faith getting a boost about now! Thanks again for the feedback.


----------



## Mickel

luckypaul said:


> Thanks for the feedback on "substantial shareholders" Mr Z and Mickel. I couldn't access Commsec as I am guessing your directions were for members Mickel? I don't have access to Commsec as I am British, living in Bangkok trading from accounts in Hong Kong and Luxembourg - hey that makes me sound rather dubious!
> 
> Anyway the Linc Annual Report is due next month although as it only goes to the end of June 2010, I doubt it will contain any surprises. That should show top holders as Mickel suggests.
> 
> I have been a Linc holder to varying degrees for over 3 years now and agree with comments that the price is behaving strangely now compared to the past. I guess now is the time that funds would be buying in if they are going to, although at these daily volumes it'll take them rather a long time to build up any significant holdings.
> 
> I am looking forward to the results of the Australian election this weekend, in the hope that the mining tax could take a tumble and give Linc a boost. It should certainly be nearer to $2.50 by now for sure.
> 
> I have an idea that Vale may be buying the remaining 2 coal tenements and announce a partnership with Linc in their first commercial GTL plant at the same time. If that is anywhere near a possibility I am guessing 5-6 weeks after the election to get any deal thru (a new?) FIRB. I certainly wish it could be sooner as September/October are statistically favourites for a nasty correction.  This is all complete speculation of course , not too many Brazilians in Bangkok to squeeze for information!
> 
> Having said that, I do have contacts in oil and gas here and they have told me that Linc Energy have been in Thailand (2 weeks ago), talking to companies regarding the fabrication of modules for their GTL plant. I am informed they didn't make progress here so I hope they have better luck elsewhere in Asia - somewhere with stronger quality control perhaps (and definitely NOT China)! Time will tell and I have fingers crossed for a good results. I am in Linc for the long run but I could do with my faith getting a boost about now! Thanks again for the feedback.




Interesting speculation there, Luckypaul.

Regarding Commsec and substantial shareholders, this is what is displayed-

*Shareholders buying
Date 	Shareholder 	Previous % 	New % 	Shares Traded
No shareholder activity


Shareholders selling
Date 	Shareholder 	Previous % 	New % 	Shares Traded
No shareholder activity


Substantial shareholder list at 08-09-09
Shareholder Name 	  Share Holding    	% Shares Held
Newtron Pty Ltd   	   190,923,904 	           41.56*

As far as I'm aware, Peter Bond through his private company Newtron P/L has been the only substantial shareholder since the IPO.


----------



## Mr Z

Top 20 from the 2009 report. I like to see the top 20 add up to a high %, gives the feel of a company in stronger hands. However the Nominees holdings can be a bunch of smaller holdings representing stock held in another market. I once had a small miner with ANZ on the register for 45%, it was actually the stock listed in Frankfurt and representative of a group of much smaller holders. So with Nominees listings you have to dig a little to get to the truth in my experience.



PS: Pan are smart operators IMO, nice to see them on the register.


----------



## Mr Z

Just thumbing through my charts. LNC looks about ready to have another swing at $2 to me. Stochastic is low and turning and volume is on the upswing again. Weekly chart looks like there is still room to move. The gap is covered. A few long tail days around the turn. On balance volume pulling up in the last three sessions. Generally more + than - volume. If we can crack $2 we are past the short term static for a bit IMO. Not a bad picture IMO.



Oh yeah... I hold LNC


----------



## basilio

Interesting to see how the market is valuing LNC at the moment. At the closing price of $1.70 the market value of 495 m shares is $ 841 m.  *And this is with $500m in the bank and hopefully anywhere between $1-2.5 bill coming on board  in the foreseeable future.*

Before the coal sale LNC was valued at $520 m ( 494m x $1.05) . In effect the extra $500m in the bank has *actually lowered* the rest of the company by $180m. 

Certainly not what I anticipated. Will be interesting to see the effect of any future coal sales and at what stage LNC is revalued by analysts.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Interesting to see how the market is valuing LNC at the moment. At the closing price of $1.70 the market value of 495 m shares is $ 841 m.  *And this is with $500m in the bank and hopefully anywhere between $1-2.5 bill coming on board  in the foreseeable future.*
> 
> Before the coal sale LNC was valued at $520 m ( 494m x $1.05) . In effect the extra $500m in the bank has *actually lowered* the rest of the company by $180m.
> 
> Certainly not what I anticipated. Will be interesting to see the effect of any future coal sales and at what stage LNC is revalued by analysts.




Equally intrigued Basilio.
Recently Austock stated a market cap of $841 with a "buy" and a 12month  sp of $3.05
BBY came out with a market cap of $950 with a "hold" and sp of $1.99
I realise the two companies worked on different scenarios.
Are we awaiting a final AR from MCF and Co in the US, or additional ones?

I took onboard a further 20k shares today at 1.71 with the gamblers view that the "Mad Monk" has a chance of beating the Labour party. 
What's the general view of his chances at this late stage in the race?
Been a holder since early June, and in for the long haul.


----------



## frankblack

dogeatdog said:


> Equally intrigued Basilio.
> Recently Austock stated a market cap of $841 with a "buy" and a 12month  sp of $3.05
> BBY came out with a market cap of $950 with a "hold" and sp of $1.99
> I realise the two companies worked on different scenarios.
> Are we awaiting a final AR from MCF and Co in the US, or additional ones?
> 
> I took onboard a further 20k shares today at 1.71 with the gamblers view that the "Mad Monk" has a chance of beating the Labour party.
> What's the general view of his chances at this late stage in the race?
> Been a holder since early June, and in for the long haul.




I dont believe you actually bought your shares on the basis, that a conservative government would be better for LINC. Did you, really????
And tell the truth.


----------



## namrog

dogeatdog said:


> I took onboard a further 20k shares today at 1.71 with the gamblers view that the "Mad Monk" has a chance of beating the Labour party.
> What's the general view of his chances at this late stage in the race?
> Been a holder since early June, and in for the long haul.




Federal labor, and Martin Ferguson in particular has been solidly behind Linc.

I doubt the result of tomorrows election will have any effect on the linc share price what so ever, and if that's where your head is as far as being a trader or investor in Linc is concerned, maybe you'd be better off just puting you money on the election result......!!


----------



## frankblack

namrog said:


> I doubt the result of tomorrows election will have any effect on the linc share price what so ever,




Thats the truth,
I dont think politics comes into it. Pretty much the same both of them.
When it comes to LINC.


----------



## dogeatdog

frankblack said:


> I dont believe you actually bought your shares on the basis, that a conservative government would be better for LINC. Did you, really????
> And tell the truth.




Being honest.... and excuse me as a non Aussie, and not necessarily a follower of Australian politics.
Ref this thread. Page No:70 #1398 also Page 71 #1403 & #1404
I assumed MR Monk was against a mining tax? If the opposition win, may the tax not be axed? If yes, then possibly it may have a SHORT TERM positive impact on the LNC energy sp?
Is it also possible, that other potentual buyers for the remaining coal tenements, are waiting on the side lines to see if the mining tax proposals will remain as is?
And of course as I mentioned in many previous comments, I have faith in the long term for this company, so I personaly think a sp of 1.71 has plenty of upside either way.
Maybe Linc's future lays beyond Australia, so in the long term, it may not matter which party or parties govern.
I continue to be open to advice, education and speculation.


----------



## dogeatdog

namrog said:


> I don't understand why people have come to the conclusion that labor are anti UCG ? and trying to stand in the way..??
> I hold all three of these companies, Linc since the beginning and Martin Ferguson in particular has been very supportive of what linc are trying to achieve.......
> If state labor are the problem, surely fed lab would step in and tell em to back off as Ferguson himself recognises  Australias growing dependance on foreign oil ...




I often wonder where my head is sir. My only defence is, it pays to think outside the box.
It seems I'm not the only one thinking a party change would help the cause.
Check page 63 #1259 in answer to a question posed by your good self.

Linc holder.


----------



## namrog

dogeatdog said:


> I often wonder where my head is sir. My only defence is, it pays to think outside the box.
> It seems I'm not the only one thinking a party change would help the cause.
> Check page 63 #1259 in answer to a question posed by your good self.
> 
> Linc holder.




Good research there, I'm all for thinking outside the box, but my point about you buying shares based on a 50/50 at best election outcome is beyond my comprehension, however if it works out and you make a profit then good luck to you..
As you know, and has been said often enough here, Linc are not confined to Queensland, south Australia, or indeed anywhere in Australia for that matter with more than enough options over seas, so for this one reason I can't see the election here having any effect on the share price, but if your right I won't complaine, I'm holding enough already...


----------



## frankblack

If you are debating around the Super profits mining tax,
Its also necessary to know which one.
The first proposal was abandoned by the new PM when she took over.
The new proposal is way different to the first, much watered down,
only applies to ore and coal, and in effect is only there to close a loophole, in the current arrangements.
Mining companies understand this, of course they are greedy, but this closing of a loophole wont deter them from investing, as long as there is a market for coal.
The tax is still being worked on, and a long way from being presented to parliament, if the gov. can hold on. 
I think it was 2013, before it starts anyway.


----------



## Mr Z

Linc's future is beyond Australia for sure. If they have the success I think they deserve they will be placed extremely well to develop into a 'new age' energy company. They will know what it takes to develop and bring to market new tech and they will be looking for it IMO and should have great cash flow to develop the next good idea. All pure speculation of course, looking well down the road, but once in a while you see a company that has got amazing potential, Linc IMO is one of those... Mad Monk or Witchy Poo ain't going to slow these guys down, even if they try! They have got it together, no BS, no spin and they do the yeoman's work!



I hold.


----------



## dogeatdog

frankblack said:


> If you are debating around the Super profits mining tax,
> Its also necessary to know which one.
> The first proposal was abandoned by the new PM when she took over.
> The new proposal is way different to the first, much watered down,
> only applies to ore and coal, and in effect is only there to close a loophole, in the current arrangements.
> Mining companies understand this, of course they are greedy, but this closing of a loophole wont deter them from investing, as long as there is a market for coal.
> The tax is still being worked on, and a long way from being presented to parliament, if the gov. can hold on.
> I think it was 2013, before it starts anyway.




Thank you for the clarification frankB.
Namrog, I started following this thread when I first purchaced Linc shares back in June, on the strong recommendation of a very good friend, who also contributes to this thread.
I've since read all pages, and noted many interesting facts, figures, statistics, charts and individuals points of view.
One thing we all have in common is our intension to make some cash, either in the long, medium or short term.
I'm sure you agree that the markets can act in strange, sometimes illogical ways, so I agree that to purchase shares, solely hoping for the election results to drive them up, would be stupid of me. But as stated I see the buy at 1.71, sooner or later a win win. 
Pleasant weekend folks


----------



## Mr Z

Hmmmm yes! efficient market theory, biggest load of twaddle that an academic ever came up with! You just have to watch the markets for a year to work out they are very often irrational! If you think about it for a second there would really be very little opportunity if the markets where efficient. I subscribe to emotional roller coaster theory!  I would not have it any other way! These  guys trashed LNC beyond all sense, down around the $1 mark it was a gift! Boy am I glad they did it for one! Buy buy buy... LOL. Looking back it will seem silly... some gold miners are down there in silly territory today! GFC lows with gold at 1230 odd going into the strong season... what the heck  Buy buy...

but I am bias I do hold and I am buying...!

DYODD etc etc


----------



## Mickel

As we have some overseas posters on this thread, this is the official site of the election results.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/

 This is the current situation as at 23/8 12.52 pm-

Aust Labor Party (ALP)            71
Libs/Nats Coalition                  72
Greens                                   1
Independents                          2
Doubtful                                 4
                                        ------
TOTAL                                150
Two of the doubtful seats could go to Independents so that group, whether 2, 3, or 4, will have a big say in who forms Government. At least one of the confirmed Independents, Bob Katter represents the top third of Queensland (excluding Cape York)which includes the mining areas of Mt Isa, Greenvale and Mungana. He has openly stated that he is against any mining tax so, while he doesn't speak for the group, it is unlikely that the Tax will go ahead in the current parliament. I have heard that the other confirmed Independent, Tony Windsor is also against a mining Tax.

Of course the Greens member will almost certainly vote with the ALP.


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post, Bob Katter has not been a confirmed provisional winner. This is because the Lib/Nats have outpolled the ALP and they are redistributing ALP preferences for a new 2 party preferred vote. 

So, either Katter or the Lib/Nats candidate will win. I think that the ALP would preference Katter (rather than Libs/Nats), so he should win.


----------



## basilio

Three weeks now since confirmation of the first coal sale. The market seems to have been definitely underwhelmed by *that *result.

I'm wondering at what stage we'll see further conversations about the remaining coal sales and any more definitive plans for the development of the various projects ?

Or maybe Peter has decided that since LINC won't have to go back for more capital raising he doesn't need to beat up the company as much ? And perhaps the drifting share price represents the last significant opportunity for people who understand what is happening to accumulate further holdings. Just speculation.


----------



## basilio

Some heavy stop losses seem to be triggered today.* $1.59 with a rock.*............


----------



## Mr Z

Yes... we are being priced like a run of the mill oiler. I have support a 1.56 then again at 1.465 with the 200DMA at 1.47. Golden cross coming up (50/200 DMA), volume is not huge and we are looking oversold. I think I mused 1.56 could be the worst of it earlier, looks like we are all but there. I have divergences on some of my proprietary oscillators, a good indication. Maybe we are seeing some short action gunning the 200DMA, if so they can turn on a dime if we get some buying coming in soon. So far this looks like a good consolidation, if we close well here I would pick today as the worst of it... sofa so good, 1.615 as I type... going green today would be brilliant sign IMO!


----------



## noie

This and GGE/GGP = a poop day for my specs..

*LNC*
Last Trade *1.575* 

Bid 1.640 Offer 1.415  
Today's Change -0.090 (-5.405%) 
Open 1.665 
Today's High 1.670 Today's Low 1.550

Volume 3647411 

It was previously, mentioned that the "second" coal sale would be within the next few months, and 2 of those outbid were still interested.

I don't know many companies that would like to post news during a Hung Election
Except BHP


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/investor-linc-issue-16.pdf

Lots of news


COAL SALE AWAY FOR BILLIONS
WORTH ITS WEIGHT IN COAL
A SMARTER USE FOR COAL
FIRST STEPS INTO ALASKA
KNOW YOUR UCG

nice photo


----------



## Mickel

Very illuminating figures on construction costs of a GTL plant on page 3 of August 2010  Investor -Linc
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/investor-linc-issue-16.pdf

*My understanding of these figures is that it is estimated that it will cost $450M minimum to construct a 5,000 bpd  (oil equivalent) plant. This would include the oil equivalent of Naphtha and power
*


"Capital and operating cost information was used by Linc Energy to perform rigorous economic sensitivity analysis and for evaluating project specific
economics. Benchmarking Linc Energy’s facility with published coal to liquid facilities on an installed capital cost per barrel of daily capacity (see Table 2)
indicates Linc Energy’s UCG to GTL complex compares very favourably, and confirms the capital expenditure benefit of UCG to GTL.

*Table 2: Reference of coal to liquid (CTL) costs expressed as USD capital expenditure required per equivalent barrel of capacity of the GTL complex
*
Reference.......................... USD (‘000)/ebpd” 
Linc Energy.........................90 to 120
Commercial CTL facility........100 to 200
US DOE (Jan 09).................106 to 115
Aker Solution references.......120 to 140
CTL
* Please note the above ranges reflect various site locations.

This, in addition to the detailed economic evaluation performed by the company, confirms that a strong business case exists for a UCG to GTL facility. Using this information, further process and project optimisation work is planned in 2010 to support a smaller, modular scale capacity approach to further reduce the scale-up risks of the opportunity.

* bbl refers to barrel liquid fuels, DAF = dry-ash free basis
”  ebpd = equivalent barrels per day, including associated power"

From the same page above-
"Results from the study indicate that 20,790 bpd of Fischer-Tropsch liquid fuels would be produced, with a product distribution of 62 per cent diesel, 33
per cent naphtha and 5 per cent LPG. The GTL facility will also be able to produce jet A-1 fuel, though this would reduce the diesel volume.
Electricity is expected to be exported via the South Australian electricity grid.
The calculated product yield for the proposed Linc Energy facility (see Table 1) refers to the amount of liquid product produced per tonne of coal (dry ash
free basis) consumed. The product yield of 1.9 equivalent barrels per tonne of coal (dry ash free basis) includes power generation, which based on
energy content, has been converted to an equivalent number of barrels of liquid product.

*Table 1: Product Yield*
Yield......................................................bbl/tonne coal (DAF)*
Fischer-Tropsch liquid fuels......................................1.4
Total liquid fuels ....................................................1.7
Equivalent barrels of liquid fuels (includes power)......1.9"

*It appears to me that the profitability figures in the BBY analyst report of 23 April 09 are no longer relevant.
Any comments ????*
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-20.pdf


----------



## basilio

In relation to the question of how much the LNC Gas to Liquids plant will cost it's worth recognizing what is happening to the availability and price oil. In that sense getting a plant underway as quickly as possible seems to make good sense and good economics.

Excellent article in Energy Bulletin which explores 3 separate reports on the question.



> *Major reports point to oil supply turmoil and price volatility*
> by Matthew Wild
> 
> 
> Major energy reports published this year are pointing to a significant rise in the price of oil due to supply constraints sometime over the next three years – the only disagreement is how soon.
> 
> So far 2010 has seen three international reports considering the future of oil production, demand and prices. These were published by high profile groups that command widespread respect – in turn, a collection of UK industrialists, the US military and a joint effort between Europe’s most recognized insurance company and a politically connected think-tank.
> 
> Largely ignored by the media, and considered separately online as they came out, it is interesting to do a compare-and-contrast between documents produced for widely different audiences on each side of the Atlantic.




So what is the likelihood that they are all hopelessly wrong?

http://www.energybulletin.net/stori...point-oil-supply-turmoil-and-price-volatility


----------



## namrog

With recent reports of the russians loading iran's nuclear reactor with fuel rods making international news, I wonder how long it will be before there is an israeli attempt to destroy it...

I believe that if there is to be oil supply and price volatility, then there is a great chance that this is where it will come from...
If this were to happen, and making the terrible assumption that it will at some stage, world oil supplies will surely suffer massive disruption...and I would think for many years....

So if there is such a thing as an "ill wind blowing some good" then Linc ungently need to go ahead with a coal to liquid plant asap , providing, and here lays the big IF still in my mind, that they have proven their technology works to a satisfactory level, to proceed...?
Call me cynical, but I'm not convinced it does, or if it does then why is there no or little credit given for such, and shouldn't that be reflected with a premium  built into the current share price ....?

And why aren't some of the oil majors climbing all over Linc to get a piece of the action... ??

Something just doesn't add up ???


----------



## kash

Their newsletter painted a nice picture. But still nothing solid with gtl. I think this is what the market is waiting for. selling coal is great money and will boost the share price but ultimitely this is just money that can whittle away and be spent. What is needed are definite plans for where and when this 20000 bpd plant will be complete. That will give all a substanial date to work to and when we will see cash flow from their prime business


----------



## luckypaul

A friend in the UK just e-mailed me an update sheet for a UK AIM listed penny share based tipsheet which has this comment for AFC which it tipped just before the arrangement with Linc was announced.



> *AFC ENERGY (AFC)*: AFC’s low cost alkaline fuel cells are to be used in a new clean coal project in North East England sponsored by the Department of Energy and Climate Change. This is an underground coal gasification project, in which the coal is burnt underground releasing gas to the surface. The hydrogen element is then used to produce electricity via AFC’s fuel cells. According to AFC ‘Using fuel cells electricity can be produced from hydrogen with an efficiency of up to 60% at projected costs as low as 4 to 5 pence per kWh. Upwards of 90% of the CO2 is captured as a by-product… If successful, this project would mark the first large scale demonstration of alkaline fuel cell technology in a Carbon Capture and Storage project’ BUY UP TO 25p




I believe that should mean some revenue for Linc following the exclusivity agreement they have with AFC Energy? Of course it also means that there are companies in the same arena as Linc that are sneaking ahead while Linc tries to sell coal and sort out its funding for the projects. Linc is no longer leading as it was 2 years ago.

However, this 'competition' has the advantage that it may get UCG into the mainstream news which is really where we need it to get investor interest and the Linc stock behaving like we all think it should. Of course, the downside is that if any of these projects screw up (and I beleive Linc is one of the most professional of the companies involved) the news could taint Linc before it is even got off the ground!

In the same tipsheet (RHPS) they have another company related to what Linc is trying to do - but at the other end:-



> OXFORD CATALYSTS GROUP (OCG): Oxford Catalysts’ Fischer-Tropsch pilot unit has performed well in phase one of trial at GÃ¼ssing, Austria, where liquid fuel is being generated from gasified wood. Its partner, SGC Energia, is 'very pleased' with the results. Importantly, it has confirmed that it will place a commercial order upon completion of the technical milestones. This technology has massive potential, and a maiden commercial order would be a significant milestone. The demonstration unit is ‘producing over 0.75 Kg of FT liquids per litre of catalyst per hour, some 4 to 8 times greater productivity than conventional systems.’ For the background to Oxford Catalysts I will refer you to the June issue. BUY UP TO 80p




I wrote to Linc telling them about OCG about 6 months ago as they have a micro-channel FT reactor which is a lot smaller (and I guess cheaper to build) than the traditional tower. Their original idea was to build an FT reactor small enough to use on oil rigs and convert the gas they normally flame-off to fuel rather than waste it. The also sell catalysts to industries so I thought there may be some use Linc could get from these guys. No idea whether any contact was made.

Come on Linc, get a fri**in move on!  

Get rid of the beard, dump the daft fonts on Investorlinc and start making some electricity at least!!! I'm producing more gas than you have and I would much rather prefer it the other way round !!! 

Note: I hold Linc, the other 2 are on my wish list at present.


----------



## basilio

Some good solid  *UPWAR*D movement on LNC this morning. Nice to see after the butchery of the past week. Currently 9 cents up to $1.64. (Of course this could just put the mozz on them)  Surely the current value of the shares has to be flashing neon.  

And some stage soon there should be conversations about the next tranche of coal sales. In the current economic climate the sooner the better.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Some good solid  *UPWAR*D movement on LNC this morning. Nice to see after the butchery of the past week. Currently 9 cents up to $1.64. (Of course this could just put the mozz on them)  Surely the current value of the shares has to be flashing neon.
> 
> I'm sure most of us were expecting an upward movement following semi positive news out of the US at close on Friday.
> If there is a conclusive political outcome down under, sooner rather than later, then surely the lnc sp will rise further.
> As many have commented on this thread recently, Linc needs to prove the technology they have been developing, works on a commercial scale.
> Get a fully functional module up and running. Either with a partner, "Vale" etc, or go it alone.
> Unload the non core assets, for a good price, and hopefully in cash.
> 
> Fingers crossed for a positive weeks trading :walker:
> Lnc holder.


----------



## basilio

Some interesting news on LNC,  B9 coal and the commercialisation of the AFC fuel cell over the weekend.

Apparently B9 coal is developing a consortium in England to use UCG to provide the fuel for a AFC fuel cell 500 megawatt power station. LNC is part of the consortium. LNC would certainly want to prove the technology in South Australia as quickly as possible.

*Perhaps this is behind some of the keener interest in LNC today ?*



> * Teesside bids to be an energy pioneer*
> 
> Aug 26 2010 by Kelley Price, Evening Gazette
> 
> A WORLD-FIRST coal project announced today could make Teesside a clean energy front runner - and revolutionise the UK’s energy security.
> 
> B9 Coal at Wilton will *combine underground coal gasification (UCG) with leading-edge fuel cell technology *to power a massive 500 megawatt station.
> 
> ....  UCG also produces pure hydrogen, which can be passed through a fuel cell, converting to electricity at 60% efficiency, with a projected cost per kilowatt hour as low as 4p.
> 
> B9 Coal is planning to submit its project for a Government CCS UK demonstration competition, which will lever billions of pounds of funding for four schemes.
> 
> B9 Coal is bringing together a major consortium, i*ncluding Australian-based Linc Energy- the world’s largest UCG specialist,* WSP Group, *AFC Energy* and a major industrial gas supplier.





http://www.nebusiness.co.uk/busines...-bids-to-be-an-energy-pioneer-51140-27141987/


----------



## kash

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 

31 August 2010 

           LINC DECLARES DIVIDEND OF $0.10 PER SHARE 

Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to advise their intention to declare 
a fully franked dividend of $0.10 cents per share on 8 October 2010. 

The Company’s ability to pay the dividend arises from the recent sale of its 100% interest in 
the Galilee coal tenement (EPC 1690). 

It  is  the  Directors  opinion   that  the  Company     meets  the   tests  of  Section  254T    of  the 
Corporations Act and that the payment is fair and reasonable. 

The Board has moved to declare a dividend at this time to recognise both the loyalty of the 
Company’s      shareholders    and   the  confidence    of  the  Board  in  the  Linc  Energy’s   future 
business   plan.    It   remains   the   philosophy   of   the   Board   to   continue   to   share   significant 
financial milestones with our shareholders as appropriate going forward. 

The dates for the final dividend are: 

                          Ex-Dividend date           6 September 2010 

                          Record date                10 September 2010 

                          Payment date               8 October 2010 

Now they pay divvies


----------



## nikemi

Wouldn't like to speculate, but logic tells me that if LNC is paying dividend, they probably have another sale inevitably coming, otherwise they would keep the money for development?!


kash said:


> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
> 
> 31 August 2010
> 
> LINC DECLARES DIVIDEND OF $0.10 PER SHARE
> 
> Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to advise their intention to declare
> a fully franked dividend of $0.10 cents per share on 8 October 2010.
> 
> The Company’s ability to pay the dividend arises from the recent sale of its 100% interest in
> the Galilee coal tenement (EPC 1690).
> 
> It  is  the  Directors  opinion   that  the  Company     meets  the   tests  of  Section  254T    of  the
> Corporations Act and that the payment is fair and reasonable.
> 
> The Board has moved to declare a dividend at this time to recognise both the loyalty of the
> Company’s      shareholders    and   the  confidence    of  the  Board  in  the  Linc  Energy’s   future
> business   plan.    It   remains   the   philosophy   of   the   Board   to   continue   to   share   significant
> financial milestones with our shareholders as appropriate going forward.
> 
> The dates for the final dividend are:
> 
> Ex-Dividend date           6 September 2010
> 
> Record date                10 September 2010
> 
> Payment date               8 October 2010
> 
> Now they pay divvies


----------



## snowking

My initial thought when I read the announcement was I'd like to see Linc hold on to the money and use it for further development. But your comment about another sale pending makes sense, hopefully you're on the money.


----------



## noie

nikemi said:


> Wouldn't like to speculate, but logic tells me that if LNC is paying dividend, they probably have another sale inevitably coming, otherwise they would keep the money for development?!




Yeah, Similar to another post just recently on SOO, a divy now tells us they are not so worried about their cash flow.. and they know they cant give us a better return then a small div right now.

Their plan requires a lot of cash for development, can they do it on what is left after this Payout?


----------



## basilio

Dividend payout is $50 m.  I think this is an astute exercise. Good politics in terms of supporting the staff who have shares and long term shareholders who are probably still underwater if they bought anytime since Sept 2008. 

Doesn't hurt Bondy that much either does it ? 

It should also make potential investors sit up and take notice of the company and hopefully strengthen the SP. Again good value for all shareholders.

I agree that declaring the dividend suggests the next tranche of coal sales is very likely.  It probably also suggests that the company is taking the future dividends from the Gailee sale very seriously.
 ______________________________________________

I think that LNC is absurdly underpriced at the moment. It will be interesting to see if this announcement starts some fundamental reappraisal of it's value and a subsequent increase in share value. Ask yourself which other mining or industrial companies are sitting on  6% fully franked dividends? 

Great day .


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Dividend payout is $50 m.  I think this is an astute exercise. Good politics in terms of supporting the staff who have shares and long term shareholders who are probably still underwater if they bought anytime since Sept 2008.
> 
> Doesn't hurt Bondy that much either does it ?
> 
> It should also make potential investors sit up and take notice of the company and hopefully strengthen the SP. Again good value for all shareholders.
> 
> I agree that declaring the dividend suggests the next tranche of coal sales is very likely.  It probably also suggests that the company is taking the future dividends from the Gailee sale very seriously.
> ______________________________________________
> 
> I think that LNC is absurdly underpriced at the moment. It will be interesting to see if this announcement starts some fundamental reappraisal of it's value and a subsequent increase in share value. Ask yourself which other mining or industrial companies are sitting on  6% fully franked dividends?
> 
> Great day .




Agree 100% on all points. Great day indeed!! The last sentence in the announcement- "It remains the philosophy of the Board to continue to share significant financial milestones with our shareholders as appropriate going forward."  suggests that it isn't a one off dividend and therefore SHOULD demand a re-rating.


A reminder to anyone who hasn't completed their TFN/ABN and direct credit details, you can download the forms from Link Market Services website-
http://www.linkmarketservices.com.au/public/forms/change-details.html


----------



## basilio

Good story in The Australian on Peter Bond a few weeks back. Shed some light on how he got into LNC in the first place and the divergence of fortunes between himself and Len Walker (ex LNC director current CEO of Couger Energy (cough, cough..)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus.../story-e6frg8zx-1225902296719?from=public_rss


----------



## Mickel

The news release on LNC website advising the 10c dividend states -
"The Linc CEO is putting the finishing touches on the company’s upcoming overseas road show with a focus on Linc’s coal opportunities and its range of exciting value-added opportunities *as well as a new cornerstone business for UCG, which will be revealed on the road show.*
“The key focus of the company will still centre on the pursuit of our commercial goals of underground coal gasification (UCG) to gas to liquids (GTL) and UCG to Power, in a focused manner from a unique and proven technical base, with projects already underway within Australia and in other parts of the world,” Mr Bond said."

Very interesting. Can't wait to find out ! Any ideas ???

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/release-27.pdf


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> The news release on LNC website advising the 10c dividend states -
> "The Linc CEO is putting the finishing touches on the company’s upcoming overseas road show with a focus on Linc’s coal opportunities and its range of exciting value-added opportunities *as well as a new cornerstone business for UCG, which will be revealed on the road show.*
> “The key focus of the company will still centre on the pursuit of our commercial goals of underground coal gasification (UCG) to gas to liquids (GTL) and UCG to Power, in a focused manner from a unique and proven technical base, with projects already underway within Australia and in other parts of the world,” Mr Bond said."
> 
> Very interesting. Can't wait to find out ! Any ideas ???
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/release-27.pdf




Maybe  this ? There was an announcement late last week from AFC of  a joint venture which include LNC.




> Some interesting news on LNC, B9 coal and the commercialisation of the AFC fuel cell over the weekend.
> 
> Apparently B9 coal is developing a consortium in England to use UCG to provide the fuel for a AFC fuel cell 500 megawatt power station. LNC is part of the consortium. LNC would certainly want to prove the technology in South Australia as quickly as possible.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Maybe  this ? There was an announcement late last week from AFC of  a joint venture which include LNC.




Perhaps, Basilio. However I read it as something apart from the key focus of Power Generation and GTL. 
Whatever it is I hope it grabs the market's attention and translates to a price surge.


----------



## ColB

> Originally Posted by *[Mickel*
> 
> "Perhaps, Basilio. However I read it as *something apart from the key focus of Power Generation and GTL. *
> 
> Whatever it is I hope it grabs the market's attention and translates to a price surge."




Maybe it's the diversification of their current plans to drill for natural gas in Alaska!  Let's hope if they get their permit they make a huge find.

See: [http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/346083372.shtml]


----------



## Mickel

ColB said:


> Maybe it's the diversification of their current plans to drill for natural gas in Alaska!  Let's hope if they get their permit they make a huge find.
> 
> See: [http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/346083372.shtml]




Couldn't access your reference, Col. But you could well be right and a huge find should cause the S/P to surge.

Market is up .6% at 2.30 pm but LNC is up 4.73% ($0.08) to $1.77. Looking hopeful, at least to the ex div date.


----------



## basilio

LNC has had to put out a notice clarifying the 10c a share dividend as a "special dividend" .  Obviously they want to pay a few more "special dividends" but I think because the money is not coming from day to day operations but sales of mines it is being seen as a one off item by the ASX and they wanted that noted.


----------



## Mickel

LNC hasn't been able to break out over $1.80 for the last month.

Perhaps everyone is waiting for "new information" on Bondy's road show as foreshadowed with LNC's news release on their website regarding the 10c dividend.

Any T/A with a view ?


----------



## basilio

> Re: LNC - Linc Energy
> LNC hasn't been able to break out over $1.80 for the last month.
> 
> Perhaps everyone is waiting for "new information" on Bondy's road show as foreshadowed with LNC's news release on their website regarding the 10c dividend.
> 
> Any T/A with a view ? Mickel




Well it has recovered from $1.50 a share a  few weeks ago.  The 10c/share dividend announcement saw the SPP spike to $1.80 + then return to $1.69 and it has now returned to $1.80. Pretty handy result in less than 2 weeks.

Perhaps it will be a case of steady small increments as it is revalued by analysts.  At some stage in the next 2 months the question of the next coal sale should arise and  that would have to give the SP a shove.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> LNC hasn't been able to break out over $1.80 for the last month.
> 
> Perhaps everyone is waiting for "new information" on Bondy's road show as foreshadowed with LNC's news release on their website regarding the 10c dividend.
> 
> Any T/A with a view ?




I'm no technical analyst, but I agree with Basilio, regarding the recent sp. 

Now that the election is over, investment deals may start happening, hopefully in Lincs favour.

Still plenty of general uncertainty in the markets, so I guess we need to hope 
PB can orchestrate further coal tenement sales, find gas in Alaska, and get the GTL plant up and running a.s.a.p :sleeping:

I continue to hold LNC


----------



## luckypaul

Maybe this is the reason for Linc not announcing the expected coal sales yet:-



> 09/14/2010 06:23:32 - =FOCUSolitical Uncertainty Continues To Weigh On Australian Takeovers
> 
> By David Fickling
> Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
> SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--With a new government now in place, Australia's foreign investment regulator is expected to see a surge in applications as the backlog caused by months of political uncertainty starts moving through the system.
> 
> But lack of clarity on the minority government's views on foreign investment and its plans to tax the mining sector with its booming profits that are driving a recent wave of foreign acquisitions, will continue to loom over the system, according to lawyers and industry experts familiar with the process.
> 
> "There's a lot of pent-up resource sector activity which has been held (back) by the resources tax and the election," said John Elliott, a partner at Clayton Utz in Sydney.
> 
> Any logjam at the Foreign Investment Review Board, the government body that evaluates major foreign takeovers, risks delaying billions of dollars in deals.
> 
> In a sign that the stalled process may be breathing again, a A$2.7 billion offer from private equity groups TPG and the Carlyle Group for Australia's Healthscope Ltd. (HSP.AU) finally received FIRB approval Tuesday, just days ahead of a meeting expected to finalise the deal next week. The application has been with the Board for nearly two months.
> 
> But Banpu PCL's (BANPU.TH) A$2.5 billion bid for Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (CEY.AU) has been extended twice from an original closing date of August 23 as the company awaits a decision by the new government.
> 
> Wilmar International Ltd.'s (F34.SG) A$1.75 billion purchase of CSR Ltd.'s (CSR.AU) sugar business, announced in early July and originally scheduled for completion in early October, had its FIRB approval period extended to November 9, after the national election was announced on July 17.
> 
> Several factors have been contributing to the delays. After loosing a simple majority in parliament, Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard took weeks to cobble together a minority government with the support of three independents and a fourth legislator representing the Greens.
> 
> That has caused an unusually long hiatus on larger FIRB applications, which are typically put on hold during election periods as final approvals for prominent deals need to come from the Treasurer.
> 
> Nearly three months of uncertainty over the country's mining tax regime, as the government first introduced and then revised a plan to impose additional taxes on resource industry profits, is also likely to have prompted companies to delay submitting FIRB applications, lawyers said.
> 
> Lawyers familiar with the FIRB process said the system has been operating smoothly so far but may slow after the new government is sworn in Tuesday.
> 
> "We understand there isn't much of a logjam yet but that may well be because parties haven't been lodging applications," said Justin Shmith, a partner at Blake Dawson. "With that caretaker period ending, we may get a backlog."
> 
> But none of that has kept potential suitors away, as Australia's outsized position in the supply of key commodities such as iron ore, coal, zinc, nickel and gold, has made its mining companies prime acquisition targets in recent years.
> 
> Asian companies, such as Thailand's Banpu and India's Adani Power Ltd. (533096.BY), whose A$3 billion acquisition of Linc Energy Ltd.'s (LNC.AU) coal mines has already received FIRB approval, have vied to lock in future supply through acquiring or investing in Australian resources companies.
> 
> Most lawyers expect to see a sarp increase in takeover activity this year after M&A activity slowed in 2009 amid the global financial crisis.
> 
> Mining applications to FIRB reached 156 last year-down from 168 in 2008 but above 2007's 141-but the size of deals has risen consistently to an average A$451.4 million in 2009, from A$375.5 million in 2008 and A$137.8 million in 2007, according to FIRB's annual reports.
> 
> This M&A boom has not come without hiccups, particularly regarding investments by Chinese state-owned companies. Following stern resistance from some opposition senators, state-owned Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH) last June abandoned a A$25 billion attempt to raise its 9% stake in Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AU) to 18%.
> 
> FIRB's only significant criterion is safeguarding Australia's ill-defined "national interest", and the need for final approval from the Treasurer may further complicate matters as the country experiments with its first minority government in seven decades.
> 
> The views of the four non-Labor MPs on foreign investment and the extent of their influence on the government are unclear, said Elliot, adding that deals in more controversial commodities such as uranium, may have a tougher time.
> 
> "The government is already treading a fine line between welcoming Chinese investment and demanding proper commercial running of our businesses," Elliott said. "I can't see them ignoring the fact that they're in government with the help of these four" MPs.
> 
> -By David Fickling, Dow Jones Newswires; +61 2 8272 4689; david.fickling@dowjones.com




Although having said that another news release raises some possibilities:-



> 09/15/2010 02:35:05 - MARKET TALK: India Companies Eye Aussie Coal Asset -Report
> 
> 0035 GMT [Dow Jones] Australian coal sector on notice after India's Business Times report, citing unnamed sources, says Reliance Power (532939.BY), Adani Power (533096.BY) and GMR are among 31 companies interested in a coal mine asset in Australia valued at almost US$1 billion. Report says sources reckon mine "may have reserves of 280-300 million metric tons" and "comes with an operating power plant of 500 megawatts". Bids are due Sept. 20 and there are rival bidders from Japanese and Chinese companies, report says. Linc Energy (LNC.AU) recently sold a coal property to Adani and is trying to sell two more, but they are both undeveloped, with no operating power plant. (Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com)
> 
> Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
> MarketTalk@dowjones.com




I still HOLD LNC, waiting patiently for the pubic to notice how undervalued this stock is.


----------



## Mr Z

Linc looks like it is in a normal consolidation to me. Downside looks minimal, say $1.70 area and over $1.95 looks like blue sky until $2.50 odd. Some resistance around $2.20 but we should do the high end of the 2.20-50 area IMO FWIW.


----------



## luckypaul

Someone bought around 1 million Linc shares at the close today. Stock moved up 2.5c. Sadly a far cry from the good old days when someone bought 4 million shares at the close and made the price jump 20%! Still, a positive move by someone, lets hope they know more than the rest of us.


----------



## basilio

I think the very late million share purchase could be an astute move by a fund manager wanting to get into LNC.

Basically it caused very little disruption to the market but effectively pulled out a million plus shares that have probably been sloshing back and forth in daily trades. With a bit of luck these won't come back onto the market and any future demand will put more pressure on SP.

And who knows... The next coal sale may well be around the corner.


----------



## snowking

strong rise in SP today, up 10.5 cents at the moment, or just under 6%. 

Anyone have any ideas as to the rise today? I can't find any recent news on Linc that would suggest anything.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

RE: Snowking, as per previous announcements to the market LNC is negotiating the sale of their emerald and (can't remember the name of it currently ), anyway two more coal tenements. Some figures that have been bandied about are 300 million to 500 million, this'll increase the bank balance of LNC to more than the MC! So a rerating will probably occur when it happens, but before then I expect LNC to slowly rise in expectation of news of a coal sale (or advancing negotiations). If a sale (or hopefully bot) goes through I'd expect the price to be about $2.50 to $3 based purely on a fundamental analysis of the share. However by that token if both fail to sell (highly unlikely due to the high price of coal and the needs of China/India for coal) I'd expect LNC to trade lower to about $1.50 as they'll be holding onto coal tenements that they are unwilling to develop.


----------



## dogeatdog

snowking said:


> strong rise in SP today, up 10.5 cents at the moment, or just under 6%.
> 
> Anyone have any ideas as to the rise today? I can't find any recent news on Linc that would suggest anything.




Snowking! Flip through the last few months on this thread. Some of the folk have written some very fact ladden stuff.
As for jump today, following a 1 million share purchase at close on Friday, one can olny speculate.
I continue to hold LNC.


----------



## snowking

I was aware of the recent news and have followed the thread closely.

I was just looking at the price action for the last month and given there hasn't been an upward move that strong during that time I thought there may have been some further news/speculation regarding current negotiations to fuel the SP rise, hence the question...it would appear there wasn't


----------



## basilio

Linc issued a routine letter saying it knew no reason for the sudden price jump yesterday.

Still a couple of interesting points in the statement

1) It reminded the market that they are still on track for sale of the Teresa coal tenements as previously discussed. 

2) It seems that Adani is now looking to actually buy the land where it's bright new coal acquisition is located. That is a further commitment which may indicate additional activity. Let's remember that there was a side deal with Adani on LNC co developing any UCG/GTL activity with the previous coal sale.
 ______________________________________________________
Still holding and still expecting a BIG re rating..

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ce-jump-pd20100920-9G6BY?OpenDocument&src=hp9


----------



## Atomic

LNC - announces a pre feasability study in S.A. for supply of ucgas for the power gen.

is this a study of the study? 
and what bearing does it have on the bigger picture for lnc

i hold lnc


----------



## basilio

Looks as if LNC is again trying to keep up the price. The improvement in Syngas production report looks interesting but I wonder what the actual final production result will be. 

Market ended even lower after the announcement. Let's see the next coal sale please.

http://www.vision6.com.au/download/...an doubles UCG syngas flow rates 24-09-10.pdf


----------



## Jonathan111

Does anyone know of any previous flow rates for UCG for linc?


PB mentions carbon tax 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...chief-peter-bond/story-e6frg8zx-1225929097122


----------



## Atomic

hello people

does or do the recent annoucments of the board changes and new appointments of directors seem to be a plus or a minus for the futurte of LNC?
recently a director has sold at top of market and now we see a reshuffle of some key players / people in power.

So can PB keep it all together and produce the goods so to speek?

maybe basilio is onto this ?


----------



## Jonathan111

Apparently BJ was heavely invested in a gold plant and was pouring all his money into that while waiting for fudning from Maq bank and is going overseas to work on his gold project in the Dominican Republic .
I think the company is EVG. This is all according to another poster who speaks to him and is the largest shareholder in his gold plant.


----------



## Mickel

Jonathan111 said:


> Apparently BJ was heavely invested in a gold plant and was pouring all his money into that while waiting for fudning from Maq bank and is going overseas to work on his gold project in the Dominican Republic .
> I think the company is EVG. This is all according to another poster who speaks to him and is the largest shareholder in his gold plant.




Thanks for that info, Jonathan.

From the links below you can verify that BJ is Executive Chairman of Envirogold and has recently rearranged his family finances. In particular, check out the "Newsroom" on Envirogold's website and the "Change in Director's Interest Notice" dated 16 July 2010 for a fuller explanation.

*This should dispel any speculation that the LNC Chairman was selling because LNC's prospects were no good.
*
It has also been announced that BJ is standing down as Chairman and Director at the forthcoming AGM as he intends being overseas with his other business interests for 2 years


http://www.envirogold.com/
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100806/pdf/01086214.pdf


----------



## Jonathan111

Australian company seeking natural gas in Point MacKenzie
By TRACY KALYTIAK
For the Frontiersman
Published on Saturday, September 25, 2010 11:00 PM AKDT 

State officials are nearing a decision on whether an Australian company will be allowed to seek natural gas in the Point MacKenzie area.

Linc Energy Operations Inc. could begin constructing its so-called LEA#1 well as early as this week.

Linc Energy?s Australia-based spokesperson, Greg Meyer, did not immediately reply to an e-mail seeking comment, but an Aug. 16 Austock Securities research report mentioning the project stated, ?Lea #1 is a wildcat exploration well within 20km of Anchorage city, targeting multi-hundred billion cubic feet of gas. ... The site is within 5 miles of an inlet valve to an under-utilised 20inch gas pipeline which feeds to the power station and beyond to Sarah Palin?s neighbours!? 

Information Linc submitted in its applications for necessary state and federal permits, stated the vertical well will be situated on a 10-acre site about two miles north of Point MacKenzie Road, off Goose Creek Road. An approximately 2.2-acre gravel pad will support drilling operations.

?We received no public comments,? said Nina Brudie, an oil and gas project review manager for the state?s Alaska Coastal Management Program. ?I was not particularly surprised because they?re putting a well pad on a previously disturbed piece of property. It doesn?t involve filling raw wetlands, doesn?t have the level of environmental impact it would otherwise have. They?re using existing access roads to access the site.?

Susan Lee, a Mat-Su Borough planner, said the state supervised scrutiny of the proposed Linc Energy project and the borough reviewed the project to ensure it complied with coastal management policies.

The LEA #1 well will target conventional natural gas in the Middle and Lower Tyonek Formations as well as the Hemlock Formation. The well will be located less than two miles from the Enstar 20-inch natural gas pipeline.

The Linc Energy well site is situated more than four miles from the coast, according to a coastal project questionnaire and certification statement submitted by Linc Energy?s project manager Corri Feige. It is not expected to affect the nearest body of water, Goose Creek, which is about a half mile to the northeast of the anticipated project site.

The questionnaire also stated that the area surrounding the proposed well location is sparsely populated and that the drill rig to be used at the site is equipped with residential-grade mufflers to further reduce noise.

Dry drill cuttings will be permanently disposed of in the Mat-Su Central Landfill and fluids ? including any produced water ? will be disposed of by a commercial disposal service or through an annular injection permit from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

An archaelogist surveyed the proposed drilling site in June to ensure construction would not affect or damage historical or cultural resources in the area. A report of the survey findings was filed with the State Historic Preservation Office and the Mat-Su Borough?s historical preservation office in July.

All water required for the drilling process, the questionnaire stated, will come from either a pre-existing water well at the site or purchased and transported to the location.

The well will be drilled to an approximate bottom hole depth of 7,000 feet.

?The well will be lined with steel drill casing and cemented to approximately 1,500 feet, well below zones used for drinking water. Only water-based drilling fluids will be used, deploying standard drilling industry practices.?

Temporary drilling activities at LEA No.1 are expected to last three to four weeks and equipment will be removed after drilling has ended. If the company discovers natural gas at the site, it could later proceed with getting authorization to drill a delineation well and continue exploration. If the results of the initial drilling prove to be disappointing, the company would plug and abandon the well.

Initial drilling is expected to continue through December. Additional well testing or planning for additional wells is slated for January through March 2011, if required.

Advance prospect exploration ? selection and permitting of additional wells and related tasks ? could take place between April 2011 and January 2012.

?Discovery of a natural gas resource would meet both the local community and broader community needs in South-Central Alaska,? the questionnaire stated. ?...drilling techniques that allow for multiple wells to be drilled from a single location would be considered in the future, if appropriate for development and geologic realities.? 

http://www.frontiersman.com/articles/2010/09/26/local_news/doc4c9eecc1a8dea311995611.txt


----------



## Jonathan111

some news that may be of interest:


GVK Power & Infrastructure (GVKP.BO) is scouting for coal and gas assets overseas for $200 million to $1 billion to fire its power projects in India, the company's vice chairman said on Tuesday.




http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R1M420100928



ICVL: _We have put non-binding bids for a couple of overseas mines and are conducting due diligence on these as_
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...k-Indonesia-Australia/articleshow/6588593.cms








*Adani says $6.5b coalmine will be country's biggest* Mathew Murphy 
September 29, 2010
http://www.smh.com.au/business/adani-says-65b-coalmine-will-be-countrys-biggest-20100928-15vta.html


ADANI GROUP of India says its $6.5 billion mine, rail and port project in Queensland will produce up to 60 million tonnes of coal a year at its peak and create the country's biggest coalmine.

In an interview with BusinessDay, Harsh Mishra, the president of corporate planning, said Adani had made the single largest investment by an Indian company in Australia and planned on continuing to invest over the long term.

Last month, Adani bought Linc Energy's coal tenements in the Galilee Basin in a deal worth up to $3 billion under which Linc received $500 million in cash and a $2-a-tonne royalty for the first 20 years of coal production. That could prove to be a clever deal for Linc, given the tenement has a resource base of 7.8 billion tonnes of coal.

''We have big plans in Australia and we are definitely going to be here over the long term,'' Mr Mishra said.

''Power generation is driving growth in India, which is linked to the GDP growth. So if you are expecting a 8.5 to 9 per cent growth rate over the next five years then a lot of that directly affects the demand for power. Thermal power generating capacity is due to double in the next 10 years and that coal will have to come from somewhere.''

Mr Mishra said Adani had rented office space in Brisbane to house up to 70 staff and had begun work on an environmental impact statement (EIS) and a drilling program. ''We expect that EIS to be completed in the next 14 months,'' he said.

''We think the mine will be a mixture of open pit and underground and would not only be the largest producing mine in Australia, it would be one of the largest in the world.''

Mr Mishra said Adani would use most of the coal to feed its power plants in India, of which 13,700 megawatts are already under construction and a further 6300 megawatts will be built by 2020.

''We plan to take pretty much of all [the coal] so we don't run the risk of non-feasibility of a project like some other miners that are reliant on third-party sales,'' he said.

Adani imported 55 per cent of India's thermal coal last year, 25 million tonnes, and to expects lift that to 35 million tonnes this year.

It expects to hire up to 5000 people during construction of the Galilee project and 4000 when it hits peak capacity, expected to be about 2022.

Mr Mishra said he planned to talk to the Queensland government about whether Adani would export from Abbot Point or its own port at Dudgeon Point.









*Australia - Indian group target cattle station 29 Sep 2010*
http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/290910/australia___indian_group_target_cattle_station_.aspx






INDIAN conglomerate Adani Enterprises is homing in on Graeme Acton's prize Central Queensland grazing property Moray Downs.



The group, whose business portfolio covers everything from gas exploration to real estate and edible oil, recently bought a coal tenement from listed mining group Linc Energy in Central Queensland for $500 million.It was regarded as the largest single investment by an Indian company in Australia. The Australian Financial Review has learned that Adani is now looking to buy the land where its new mining tenement lies.



According to Queensland government publicly available resource and tenure maps, the tenement sits on the Moray Downs property, about 170 kilometres north-west of Clermont. The purchase could fetch more than $50 million for the landowner who, with his brother Evan Acton, is estimated in the latest BRW Rich List to be worth $241 million.



A deal would also draw attention to a growing trend where foreign companies buy not only the mining tenement licences but also the land underneath to help smooth exploration and development of the area





Cheers,
 Jonathan


----------



## basilio

> some news that may be of interest:
> 
> 
> GVK Power & Infrastructure (GVKP.BO) is scouting for coal and gas assets overseas for $200 million to $1 billion to fire its power projects in India, the company's vice chairman said on Tuesday.




Good stories Jonathan. Certainly underline how serious and how BIG Adani is.  Looks as if the Gailee mine will be a cornerstone of Indian power production. LNC scoring $100m a year(indexed) royalties for 20 years looks better and better.

The first story also suggests that the other coal sales should do well - and hopefully soon.

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am still really surprised that there is no sustained institutional buying pressure on LNC. Just can't see the downside at the present price and the coal sales alone would cover the current value of the company.


----------



## noie

basilio said:


> Good stories Jonathan. Certainly underline how serious and how BIG Adani is.  Looks as if the Gailee mine will be a cornerstone of Indian power production. LNC scoring $100m a year(indexed) royalties for 20 years looks better and better.
> 
> The first story also suggests that the other coal sales should do well - and hopefully soon.
> 
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> I am still really surprised that there is no sustained institutional buying pressure on LNC. Just can't see the downside at the present price and the coal sales alone would cover the current value of the company.




I am very interested in why Adani has not replicated its offer for the next parcel. they are factoring a rise in energy needs of GDP growth but i think India's growth is not quiet so linear.

an interesting October methinks


----------



## Mickel

Interesting story in Courier Mail today regarding the Coal Seam Gas industry-

*
Queensland gas bonanza 'in peril' over water row*

SENIOR Coalition frontbencher Ian Macfarlane has told one of the world's biggest resource companies that the coal seam gas industry was finished in Queensland if it did not resolve its issues over water.

While Tara's blockies were claiming they had scared off drilling in their area, west of Brisbane, through their blockades and protests, environmentalists also warned businesses last night that they could be affected by a campaign of non-violent civil disobedience to stop work in the Surat Basin gas fields.

But to counter the campaign, BG-owned Queensland Gas revealed it had budgeted to spend about $1 billion on treating the ground water from deep aquifers and returning it to the system for use by farmers and towns.

Mr Macfarlane said he had warned the industry that it had to get it right.

''I don't think there's any middle ground on it,'' he said. ''I've been telling them for 18 months they needed to get this sorted.   ......

http://www.couriermail.com.au/busin...l-over-water-row/story-e6freqmx-1225932027370

Hopefully the Qld State Government will now reconsider their decision to give priority to the CSG industry over the UCG industry. At the very least, they could take the handbrakes off the approval of commercial operations for UCG while still insisting on full environmental scrutiny.

However I won't be holding my breath.


----------



## Mickel

An interesting article on Adani's Galilee plans that expands on previous articles-
*
Adani to spend $4 bn on Aussie mine
Arijit Barman / Mumbai September 30, 2010, 0:32 IST

Aims to develop mine, rail-port infrastructure for evacuation of coal.*

After completing its big-ticket acquisition of an Australian coal asset from Linc Energy, Adani Enterprises will now make an additional investment of $3.5-4 billion (Rs 15,700-18,000 crore) to develop the necessary mining infrastructure and logistics, including a rail link and a coal terminal in a port facility. This combined investment of over A$6.5 billion (over Rs 28,000 crore) will make it the largest coal sector investment in Australia.

In August, Adani – India’s biggest coal importer – agreed to pay $2.7 billion (Rs 12,500 crore) in a cash and royalty deal for the coal asset in the Galilee Basin of Queensland, Australia, which has one of the largest high-grade thermal coal deposits, at 7.8 billion tonnes.

To begin with, there will be open-cast mining. But, eventually, the mining will go underground. On an average, for a 30-million-tonne per year extraction, the mining development cost is typically around $1.5 billion (over Rs 6,700 crore). Adani will start at that level, but will ramp it up to 50 million tonnes a year. So, that should be a $2.2-billion (nearly Rs 10,000-crore) capex, according to officials involved in the process.

“It would not only be the largest producing mine in Australia, it would be one of the largest in the world,” said Harsh Mishra, president (corporate planning), Adani Group in Australia.

Adani's spokespersons, however, did not respond to Business Standard's queries about the company's evacuation plans.

Challenging task
Logistics will be a critical challenge. Adani’s Galilee tenement is about 100 km north of Alpha in central Queensland. But, at the moment, there is no infrastructure connecting the Galilee Basin to a port.

The test that Adani’s team faces is that cheaper rail routes are all linked to coal terminals in ports which are fully occupied. So, expanding the existing port facility is one option and Adani is indeed following that seriously, but so are other miners. Or else, Adani will have to invest in the longer rail routes, either alone or in consortia.

From Queensland, there are five port options ”” Brisbane, Maryborough, Gladstonne, Hay Point and Abbott Point. But for Adani, to ship coal out from Australia, the last two choices are the best bet.

Adani has received permission from the local port authority to do a feasibility study to construct its own port and coal terminal at Dudgeon Point, as part of an expansion programme of the port of Hay Point. It will have to spend over $600 million (nearly Rs 2,700 crore) on a coal terminal alone that can handle their load factor.

There’s competition, too
This proposed site is very near to Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) and Hay Point, being run by BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi together as captive terminals. But both BHP and DBCT have also shown interest in additional coal terminals as they need excess terminal capacity for their operations. Their current captive terminals are fast reaching their peak as BHP is increasing annual production.

If Adani does finally get selected, then it will be a cheaper and easier logistical route and they will only need to invest in a 150-km stretch to Clairmont from their mine site where they is no rail linkage today. From that point onwards till the port, there are existing rail links used by others and only additional lines will need to be put in. The total combined investment will then come down, giving the Adanis considerable leg room.

The other option is the port of Abott Point, which has considerable excess capacity to handle the extra load. But to access that, a 500-km railroad needs to be built at an estimated cost of $3 billion (nearly Rs 13,500 crore).

Adani plans to mine around 52-60 million tonnes of coal every year to bring it to India and use some for trading, with operations beginning in 2014.

While Adani would only pay A$500 million (Rs 2,100 crore) as an upfront cash payment, the rest is payable as a A$2 (Rs 41.60) per tonne royalty for the first 20 years of production from the mine.

Instead of depending on one miner to foot the bill, the local authorities have asked some of the other big mining companies in the region, like Waratah Coal or Hancock, to form a joint venture SPV and co-invest in the rail road.

“Future of mining is in setting up the infrastructure. But Indian companies need to invest in competences in building mining related infrastructure like specialised railroads, storage facilities, ports and terminals. Also, we may have the hard tools, but softer elements are equally critical. Do we need to know the local environment, regulations, its people, politicians, just like the Chinese have done in Africa?” asked Prasad Baji, senior metals and mining analyst with Edelweiss.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/adani-to-spend-4-bnaussie-mine/409684/


----------



## Jonathan111

The Shareholder information set out below was applicable as at 17 September 2010.

Twenty largest quoted equity security holders
The names of the twenty largest holders of quoted equity securities are listed below: Ordinary shares
Name Number held
Percentage of
issued shares
1. Newtron Pty Ltd (Peter A Bond Fam No 3 A/C) 184,173,904 37.10%
2. HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited 29,938,557 6.03%
3. Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 24,604,386 4.96%
4. JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 20,577,168 4.15%
5. National Nominees Limited 18,796,600 3.79%
6. UBS Wealth Management Australia Nominees Pty Ltd 11,260,550 2.27%
7. J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 11,208,603 2.26%
8. Marubeni Coal Pty Ltd 7,371,000 1.48%
9. Perpetual Custodians Limited 7,324,831 1.48%
10. Newtron Pty Ltd (Peter Adam Bond Family A/C) 5,750,000 1.16%
11. WK Prospecting Pty Limited 5,111,900 1.03%
12. Steven Fierro 4,847,005 0.98%
13. HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited – GSCO ECA 4,294,998 0.87%
14. ANZ Nominees Limited 2,846,196 0.57%
15. Bond Street Custodians Limited 2,716,659 0.55%
16. CS Fourth Nominees Pty Ltd 2,483,470 0.50%
17. Mr Mark Andrew Tomkins 2,285,000 0.46%
18. Perpetual Trustree Consolidated Limited 1,436,350 0.29%
19. Merrill Lynch (Australia) Nominees Pty Limited 1,319,776 0.27%
20. AMP Life Limited 1,248,110 0.25% 

Total                       349,595,063 70.42%

Annual Report 2010


----------



## Mickel

Further to Jonathon's list above, the following immediately below that list in the Annual Report shows the total shareholding controlled by Newtron Pty Ltd (ie P Bond)-

Substantial equity security holders
The number of shares held by substantial shareholders and their associates are set out below:
Newtron Pty Ltd (*including 11,000,000 held through Nominees*) 200,923,904 ......   40.47%
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited 29,938,557  ....  6.03%


----------



## Mickel

From the Annual Report

Chairman's Message
During the year, at Linc Energy’s Chinchilla Demonstration Facility in Queensland, the UCG team designed, constructed and *operated Gasifier 4 at near-commercial levels *and achieved its start up in five hours. Equipment for oxygen injection to improve synthesis gas quality was established and trialled and a coil tubing unit was also acquired for faster UCG drilling and well intervention. The expanded UCG technical and operations group is now focusing on the commercialisation of Linc Energy’s UCG technology

Managing Director's Report
What differentiates Linc Energy is that we have a strong portfolio of coal deposits and oil and gas tenements in both Australia and the United States. Holding coal, oil and gas tenements is a key component of our business strategy as we seek to unlock value from the significant resources we own. Owning coal, oil and gas reserves is a cornerstone component of our business, *so it is natural that we will aggressively expand that aspect of our business with further acquisitions over the coming months.
*
Not only can we look to realise value in our core UCG business from the coal deposits we hold, but we can also exploit our oil and gas leases to *generate immediate cash flow from natural gas operations*. At Linc Energy we are focused on achieving our goals, but more importantly, we are about securing our grip on resource acreage and unlocking the value and short-term profits from those resources

I have said this before, but I will say it again: The first coal sale is not the end of Linc Energy’s business plan, it is just the beginning. We have *several remaining non-core coal assets for sale which will only increase in value, as well as some excellent oil and gas opportunities*. These assets underpin the future of our company and assure us of our forward funding to reach our destiny. Having large cash reserves, with a large asset base, is a great place for our company to be at the moment.

We are also examining other options to develop various programs for carbon mitigation, including Linc Carbon Solutions, and applying carbon capture and storage methods for exhausted UCG cavities. In this case UCG could be driven by the fact that its clean gas is an industrial driver for the world economy, and *ironically the cavity in the coal seam from the UCG process could be the ultimate carbon sink. Subsequently, as the world edges towards a low carbon commercial environment, these cavities could be more commercially attractive than the UCG syngas we produce, making UCG even more attractive to the marketplace and ensuring UCG has a place in the world’s ‘low carbon economy’.*

With the coal sale now complete and other asset sales underway, Linc Energy is poised to move to the commercialisation of UCG. You will see a very driven *business model focused primarily in the United States upon our Wyoming and Alaska operations as the building blocks for early UCG commercial success*. I believe Linc Energy is now in the best position it has ever been to drive towards the commercialisation of UCG.

Our other key assets, like the prospective oil in the Arckaringa Basin in South Australia, which I consider to be our ‘liquid Galilee Basin’, are also ideal opportunities for early growth and profits. I am also very confident about the acreage we own in Alaska and the potential for a natural gas discovery. Our *first well is soon to ‘spud’, and this is a fantastic opportunity for the company. It is my belief that Linc Energy will earn cash flow in the next 12 months and this will just be the start of what is an extraordinary business model.
*
The dividend payment is a token of appreciation for your loyalty, and the *Board and I hope to be in a position to declare other special dividends to share our financial milestones with you in the future.
*
Walloway Basin

Following the initial discovery, Linc Energy announced plans to accelerate the evaluation process in the Walloway Basin due to its proximity to port infrastructure and easy road access to Adelaide. In January 2010, drilling operations began with a further 30 wells appraising the lateral extent of coal occurrence, coal quality, overburden geology and hydrogeology. *Appraisal of this information has been completed, indicating constraints in the overburden strength requiring additional drilling to secure a more suitable location for UCG application in this area.*

United States
In March 2010 Linc Energy, through wholly owned subsidiaries Linc Energy (Wyoming), Inc. and Linc Energy (Montana) Inc.
announced it acquired an additional 81,268 acres of Powder River and Williston Basin coal leases located in Wyoming, Montana
and North Dakota. These were acquired from GasTech, Inc. and Wold Oil Properties, Inc. In the Williston Basin, Linc Energy’s
focus has been the Stateline Project. *This location is believed to host a low strip ratio, large lignite deposit suitable for a
conventional open cut mine development. Activities focused on the evaluation of this potential resource beginning with the
review of previous drilling data.*

From these extracts  I deduct the following-

1. Gasifer 4 has not yet produced commercial quanities of Syngas but could be close to doing so.
2. More acquistions of coal tenements are certain.
3. LNC appear to be very confident of finding gas in Alaska soon .
4. The "several non-core coal assets for sale" appear to include a possible open cut mine in the Williston Basin in the USA.
5. The exhausted UCG cavities could be very valuable as storage sinks for Carbon Capture and Storage.
6 LNC's 1st UCG commercial operation could be in USA as they have not yet identified a suitable location for UCG operations in the Walloway Basin and the main focus is on the USA operations.
7. More Special Dividends are likely.

All IMHO.I continue to hold LNC.


----------



## dogeatdog

5 October 2010
LINC ENERGY ENTERS INTO MOU WITH GFZ (GERMANY) FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS) IN UCG CAVITIES.

These type of deals obviously put out a strong message, that Linc are serious in their endeavour to become a major player in their field of energy production.
It's frustrating to witness the sp languish at current levels, but it will rise to dizzy hights once full recognition is given to the company, IMHO.

I continue to hold LNC


----------



## basilio

Was just watching the sorry sight of CTP taking a dive as it's last oil  drill failed to live up to the CEO's promise. 

I started to think that perhaps  LNC should make a takeover bid for CTP. CTP have billions of tons of coal suitable for UCG as well as the potentially very valuable oil tenements. LNC is now actively drilling for oil with it's own rigs (I believe) so expanding it's resource base would make excellent sense.

In fact they wouldn't even have to shell out cash. A takeover using LNC shares would add value to LNC's asset base, would enable CTP's shareholders to gain access to even larger resources and technology than they already have and enable some extra cash and expertise to be brought to CTP's exploration. It's not as if LNC hasn't already picked up other assets that fit in their energy portfolio. SAPEX for one.

I think it could be very good deal around. With the current SP reversal  at CTP some strategic buying by LNC wouldn't go astray.

Any thoughts?
_____________________________________________

As of October 5th the top 20 shareholders in CTP held 17.48% of the stock (according to CTP website). Wide open listing.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

If we were to take over a company I'd like to see the deal done with cash, we have no shortage of it in the near term with 2 more further coal sales on the way on top of the 500 million we received. No point in diluting the shares on offer when we can pay off the big pile of cash we are sitting on.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Was just watching the sorry sight of CTP taking a dive as it's last oil  drill failed to live up to the CEO's promise.
> 
> I started to think that perhaps  LNC should make a takeover bid for CTP. CTP have billions of tons of coal suitable for UCG as well as the potentially very valuable oil tenements. LNC is now actively drilling for oil with it's own rigs (I believe) so expanding it's resource base would make excellent sense.
> 
> In fact they wouldn't even have to shell out cash. A takeover using LNC shares would add value to LNC's asset base, would enable CTP's shareholders to gain access to even larger resources and technology than they already have and enable some extra cash and expertise to be brought to CTP's exploration. It's not as if LNC hasn't already picked up other assets that fit in their energy portfolio. SAPEX for one.
> 
> I think it could be very good deal around. With the current SP reversal  at CTP some strategic buying by LNC wouldn't go astray.
> 
> Any thoughts?
> _____________________________________________
> 
> As of October 5th the top 20 shareholders in CTP held 17.48% of the stock (according to CTP website). Wide open listing.




As a current investor in Linc, I'd prefer to see Linc focus on the construction of the proposed 20,000 BPD, CTL plant. 
Whether it be via a JV or alone, with oil prices up in the 80's, it's a appropriate time.
Hopefully PB and his merry men, have been successful in finding cost effective suppliers, of the necessary materials to construct the plant.

Linc must be burning through cash, excuse the pun, financing their various global projects, so how long does half a billion Aus$ last?

Pleasant weekend people


----------



## Jonathan111

dogeatdog said:


> As a current investor in Linc, I'd prefer to see Linc focus on the construction of the proposed 20,000 BPD, CTL plant.
> Whether it be via a JV or alone, with oil prices up in the 80's, it's a appropriate time.
> Hopefully PB and his merry men, have been successful in finding cost effective suppliers, of the necessary materials to construct the plant.
> 
> Linc must be burning through cash, excuse the pun, financing their various global projects, so how long does half a billion Aus$ last?
> 
> Pleasant weekend people




I agree with dogeatdog, 
50 million is already gone on the dividend.
Wages are another cost $? (yerostagz is self supporting, making a profit)
Repayment of the Springfield loan account $m?
Aquisitions already planned by PB. $
Drilling (Lea-1) and there must be aggressive plans to be actioned soon, maybe Linc will buy more rigs(250K each)..
The UCG-GTL recent studies (Sheden)$?
$128000 x 3 years on the German mob CCS
Vietnam
AFC
There are certainly many other costs.

PB has already stated he wants a partner that can contribute to the technology, not a partner with cash. I dont think PB will want to dilute his 40% odd ownership further. 

Another good thing about this company is that PB is the MD and owns a major stake in the company (concluding that he will look after himself, as a shareholder (and us holders), with things such as dividends)

The royalty may be about $75m per yr avg (to be CPI adjusted, for future time value) if Adani surprise with their own rail and port( which they are looking aggressive with). 

With approx 500m LNC shares on the market. 1.80 x 500m =900m market cap. P/E ratio with only this royalty income is about 12, no? Hopefully there will be more income (GTL, AFC, gas, electricity, royalties, more exploration joys and sales)


----------



## basilio

Don't really want to bang on too much about the value of a CTP takeover bid but I think it's worth a couple more observations.

1) The assets already identified particularly underground coal are very tidy and do fit into LNC's area of interest

2) The oil tenements  appear to be on the cusp of a highly profitable project. In fact they could be producing income within 12 months.

3)  The disappointment with CTP's management is seeing the shares at a pretty low price relative to reserves.  *It looks like a juicy bargain for anyone with the cash * and perhaps even better value for a company that can use CTP's assets in  a particularly profitable manner.

And obviously if we can recognise theses possibilities then they won't be overlooked by other companies in this field.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Don't really want to bang on too much about the value of a CTP takeover bid but I think it's worth a couple more observations.
> 
> 1) The assets already identified particularly underground coal are very tidy and do fit into LNC's area of interest
> 
> 2) The oil tenements  appear to be on the cusp of a highly profitable project. In fact they could be producing income within 12 months.
> 
> 3)  The disappointment with CTP's management is seeing the shares at a pretty low price relative to reserves.  *It looks like a juicy bargain for anyone with the cash * and perhaps even better value for a company that can use CTP's assets in  a particularly profitable manner.
> 
> And obviously if we can recognise theses possibilities then they won't be overlooked by other companies in this field.




If PB does decide on further acquisitions, AFC is starting to gain recognition, and may soon be a high flyer. (I must get round to buying some shares)
IMHO

Any updates on approval for drilling in Alaska "Lea 1" ?
LNC holder.


----------



## mexican

http://ktna.org/2010/08/30/public-notice-natural-gas-expl-in-mat-su/




This month


----------



## basilio

The AFC fuel Cell technology (which LNC is currently exploring) is getting traction in UK. AFC have signed a deal to use the fuel cell technology in a major new power station.  Good spike in their shares too.  

Be interesting to see if this will be part of LNC's proposal for the SA power station proposal.



> *Deal signals advent of clean fuel-cell power stations
> *
> Three British companies have joined forces to develop a pioneering venture in clean power generation.
> 
> Energy developers Powerfuel Power, B9 Coal and AFC Energy have signed an agreement to install AFC Energy’s revolutionary fuel cell technology at Powerfuel’s Hatfield site near Doncaster.
> 
> The agreement paves the way for the creation of a joint venture between B9 Coal and Powerfuel to exclusively develop low-carbon fuel cell power stations in the UK.
> 
> B9 Coal will be responsible for installing up to 300 megawatts (MW) of AFC Energy’s fuel cell technology alongside Powerfuel’s planned integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power station. The agreement also includes an option to rollout the technology to further territories worldwide in the future.
> 
> .....Powerfuel is constructing a large scale IGCC, near-zero emissions power station with carbon capture capability at the Hatfield site. Initial construction will involve an 800 MW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) facility *optimised for syngas conversion and operation. *Powerfuel then plan to convert the CCGT plant into a 900 MW IGCC power station fuelled by its extensive coal resources at Hatfield colliery.
> 
> The syngas used in the plant can easily be passed through a clean-up process to produce hydrogen as a feedstock for AFC Energy’s low cost alkaline fuel cells. AFC Energy’s technology converts hydrogen to emissions-free electricity at 60% electrical efficiency.




http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/n...advent-of-clean-fuel-cell-power-stations.html


----------



## Jonathan111

LSE

Headline Exercise of Option by Linc Energy and Placing 
Released 11:25 12-Oct-2010 
Number 2444U11 



RNS Number : 2444U
AFC Energy Plc
12 October 2010


http://www.londonstockexchange.com/...rket-news-detail.html?announcementId=10685589


AFC Energy PLC


("AFC Energy", "AFC" or the "Company")

Exercise of Option by Linc Energy and Placing
AFC Energy (AIM: AFC), a world leading developer of low cost alkaline fuel cell technology, is pleased to announce that Linc Energy Limited (ASX: LNC) has exercised its option to extend licence rights and that it has raised £4.0 million net from the placing of new ordinary shares with Linc Energy Limited ("Linc Energy") and a group of private investors.

Further to the binding heads of agreement made between AFC with Linc Energy and B9 Coal Limited ("B9 Coal") and announced on 8 December 2009, Linc Energy has exercised its option to extend in perpetuity its worldwide exclusive rights to utilise and operate AFC fuel cells in conjunction with underground coal gasification ("UCG") and to use AFC fuel cells in any commercial or research application in Australia. 



Linc Energy has invested £2.97 million pounds in AFC Energy at a 7.5% discount to the 30 day volume weighted average price at the close of business on Wednesday 5th October 2010 meaning that the exercise price is 17.72 pence per ordinary share. This includes a £2.3 million investment to exercise its option. Linc Energy will receive 16,763,650 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the capital of the Company (the "Linc Shares").



AFC, Linc Energy and B9 Coal will now work together to conclude the detailed terms of the licence. Under the terms of the licence, for Linc Energy owned sites, Linc Energy will pay to AFC an upfront payment calculated on the cost of delivery of fuel cell systems, and a royalty based upon profits generated from the use of AFC fuel cells. Linc Energy will pay B9 Coal, as introducer and broker to the transaction, a royalty equal to 2% of the net profits generated from the use of AFC fuel cells.



AFC is also pleased to announce that it has agreed, conditional only on Admission (as defined below), to place a further £1.055 million of new ordinary shares at 18.5 pence each (5,702,703 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the capital of the Company  (the "Placing Shares")) with a group of investors, comprising principally high net worth individuals ("Investors"), who have been in dialogue with the Company about the development of new business streams (the "Placees"). 



Linc Energy and the Placees have agreed not to dispose of ordinary shares held by them for a minimum period of 12 months and Linc Energy has also agreed that for a further 12 months after the expiry of the initial 12 months lock-in period that it will not dispose of any ordinary shares it holds save through the Company's broker so as to ensure an orderly market in the shares. The net proceeds of approximately £4.0 million will be used to provide operating capital for the development and commercialisation of the Company's fuel cell systems. 

Ian Balchin, CEO of AFC said: "We are delighted that Linc Energy has exercised its option and look forward to working closely with them to integrate our technologies,  enabling low cost, clean power generation from underground coal. We are also delighted to welcome a group of significant high net worth individual investors who have the potential to open doors to new markets. The additional investment received will be used to take AFC Energy well into the early stages of commercialisation."

Alisa Murphy, Director of B9 Coal, added: "We are extremely pleased with this development and the strengthening of the relationship between Linc Energy, AFC Energy and B9 Coal. We look forward to moving forward with low-carbon power generation projects and showcasing the role of this unique combination of technologies in a low-carbon future."

Peter Bond, CEO of Linc Energy concluded: "Linc Energy have been impressed by the rapid progress made by AFC Energy since partnering with them less than a year ago, including the successful deployment of a fuel cell system at our Chinchilla Facility in June. In conjunction with B9 Coal, AFC Energy have also shown great commitment and tenacity in exploiting opportunities in the European market for our jointly-developed technology.

"We look forward to maintaining this rate of technical and commercial development, working together to fully commercialise smart, efficient fuel cell power systems on a large scale at UCG sites, with virtually no CO2 emissions. Linc Energy is one of the cheapest potential sources of Hydrogen in the world via its underground coal gasification (UCG) process. A relationship with AFC to use this cheap Hydrogen to produce power via fuel cells, is a common sense way that Linc energy can further monetise its UCG gas and create a clean energy power market for generations to come."

The aggregate number of Linc Shares and Placing Shares to be issued by Company is 22,466,353 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the capital of the Company. Application has been made for the Linc Shares and Placing Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM and dealings are expected to commence at 8.00am on 25 October 2010 ("Admission").

The total enlarged issued share capital of the Company following Admission will be 173,339,207 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the capital of the Company. The above figure may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the share capital of the Company under the Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

ENDS


----------



## Jonathan111

Big spike in AFC

28.06p


----------



## luckypaul

Linc moves on AFC Energy...is this the start or the end?? My bet is that it the former as they would make a great match up and really corner a niche market. 

AFC Energy share price has jumped over 40% over the previous 3 days (although down 5% today) on no new news releases except for this RNS just issued. All good news in an exciting new energy arena. Go Linc! Hopefully Linc will make a news release tomorrow.

Where is that second coal sale news? Linc's SP is in a coma and should be flying with all this potential!


----------



## basilio

Exercising the AFC option is a no-brainer - and it's great to see that the fuel cell technology appears to be maturing rapidly and that LNC is in boots and all

With the right push this could be a very significant turning point for clean , cheap power generation in Australia and globally. *IF*, (and it's properly demonstrated) the new combination of UCG and Alkaline Fuel cells can generate power at roughly the same cost as say gas fired stations ( or better still coal fired stations) there appears to be no sensible reason not to  mandate this technology. In fact if there is any sort of carbon price brought to bear I think this will be a clear winner. 

I love elegant, win win solutions

Let's go!!

__________________________________________________________

And surely LNC has to be re rated by analysts and the market place soon. It's just too cheap with all the irons in the fire starting to glow...


----------



## Jonathan111

It looks like a director bought half a million dollars worth of shares on market..

_"Mr Oliver Yates, a non-executive director of Linc Energy (ASX:LNC), has informed the Company of the purchase of shares in his Superannuation fund which he holds a direct interest."_


and reports are saying Adani is trying to get Coal India(CIL) to help develop Galilee after CIL completes their mega IPO...

http://in.news.yahoo.com/20/20101013/372/tbs-adani-in-talks-with-cil-to-develop-r_1.html


----------



## teabagger

Why is it that there are two to three times more sellers than buyers and yet the sp remains at $1.80 ish. I have noticed this trend with linc for a while now. 
Is it as simple as sell orders just sitting there to be activated when their price is reached?
Thanks


----------



## dogeatdog

mexican said:


> http://ktna.org/2010/08/30/public-notice-natural-gas-expl-in-mat-su/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This month




Thank you for the link Mexican.
Apologies for the delayed reply..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................


----------



## roland

teabagger said:


> Why is it that there are two to three times more sellers than buyers and yet the sp remains at $1.80 ish. I have noticed this trend with linc for a while now.
> Is it as simple as sell orders just sitting there to be activated when their price is reached?
> Thanks




Hi teabagger, I wouldn't take too much notice of the entire list of open orders. You could put an order in to buy at a price that you know won't get filled and that would add to the supposed unbalanced view.

You would be much better off looking at a smaller cross section of the depth to get a better view - maybe a little more than a typical daily range would be a good start.


----------



## basilio

LNC's take up of the AFC option has certainly stirred the possums in the AFC camp. There is a very good overseas stock forum which discusses AFC's prospects. The fact that it has jumped around 40% in a week since announcements of a AFC fuelled power station proposal  and then LNC's buy in hasn't hurt.

I've attached a relevant observation from a person who visited the AFC plant on  a recent open day. .. A long read and a bit ramblay but very interesting from our point of view as partners in this technology and  having the opportunity to let it loose on the power generation industry in Australia and around the world.

Cheers

..







> ..I asked when we can expect the order from Linc which I wasn’t expecting an answer to as it would be price sensitive. He skilfully turned it around and told the tale of how Peter Bond had started out as a truck driver driving coal between 2 mines who took a punt on the land between the 2 mines having coal under it as well. Turns out he was right and made £100 million dollars in the process! Then acquiring a majority stake in Linc Energy with the proceeds. He is a man who does not like to mess about according to Howard, one of the richest men in Australia and quite hell bent on becoming THE richest man in Australia, if LINC pans out then he may just do it.
> 
> *Basically the upshot is they want 300MW of capability and they want it now*! I also asked whey the alpha test cell had not been shipped to Chinchilla yet to which he replied they are waiting for the infrastructure to be put in at Lincs end. The cell is ready to be shipped they just don’t want it sitting idle in a shed in the desert. *Also if any technical improvements are made at AFC’s end they can be implemented before shipping. Peter Bond has recently visited AFC and is as keen as ever to start implementing the technology asap.*
> 
> It was then our turn to have a trip around the lab with GL (Gene Lewis), this is the part of the trip I enjoyed most and found the most insightful into AFC’s business. He started off by explaining who he was and what his background was. A materials engineer working with ceramics and fuel cells for 15 years. He was one of the key engineers at Ceres power for many years, when asked why he left he said it was because he thought he had taken it as far as he could and thought they would struggle to reach commercial production due to the complexity and cost of manufacturing.
> 
> After leaving on good terms he had no plans to continue work in the fuel cells field but heard about AFC by chance and after touring the facility quickly realised ‘he had been going about this the wrong way’ (Howard’s words) GL explained that whereas SOFC and PEM fuel cell tech has had millions if not billions of money poured into it by companies all over the world no-one had really looked at alkaline fuel cells since the 60’s seeing them as a dead end and defunct technology.
> 
> *He explained that 10 even 5 years ago they could not do they stuff they are doing today. Advancements in manufacturing processes and low cost materials for parts and electrodes meant that what once was a very expensive field requiring capital intensive materials such as platinum was now an open field for technological advancement*. Once deemed only suitable for projects where money didn’t matter (space travel), alkaline fuel cells have a new wind in their sails.
> 
> *As AFC is the ONLY company worldwide to his knowledge that is currently pursuing Alkaline technology they own the book, an ‘IP land grab’ was the phrase he used. As all previous patents for this tech are now so old it meant they can basically brand it AFC and with the advancements they are making then it will be difficult for competitors to catch up, though they expect others to join the race*.
> 
> The main problem with SOFC is the heat and pressure on the materials used in their construction, with the low temp AFC cell these problems don’t exist. GL was smiling as he held up a simple component made from mass producible ABS plastic and rubber o rings, which he then just pushed into a cell stack. Howard said GL’s favorite word was cheap and he wasn’t wrong.
> 
> *Nearly every aspect of the afc cell is designed and made from mass producible cheap materials and uses off the shelf parts like pumps and joints. No expensive sealing and specialist parts or processes are required. The electrodes are made by screen printing, again a tried and tested manufacturing process. When he demonstrated how a cell was assembled (using an older model) it couldn’t have been simpler to assemble, very few parts made of plastic mainly*. It reminded me of something you might get from a toy model shop, a 5 year old could build one!
> *
> And as if it needed to be any better a vast majority of the finished fuel cell stack is re-usable so when it does need replacing it can be reconditioned, and not only that it can be reconditioned with the latest model. Justin likened the process to taking your car in for a service, going in with a 1.4 engine and coming out with a 2 litre!*
> 
> Again and again GL kept reiterating the simple nature of the construction. He also hinted at the leaps and bounds the design is coming along, making it even simpler with fewer parts and increasing the efficiency (volumetric density) of the cells. He compared the test process for new materials to that of SOFC from his days at CERES as what takes them weeks to build and approve for testing they can do in a morning thus enabling rapid advancement. He had just returned from holiday and said it had taken 4 days to get back up to speed with the developments the team had made, such is the speed they can work. The Small focussed team with no red tape and a very short turn around time for testing new ideas is allowing AFC to pull further and further into the lead with this technology.
> 
> We then were shown the test bed where 2 fuel cells sat hooked up to monitoring equipment, albeit their were no actual cells on the units it was clear to see where they went. GL explained the set up and what each of the components did and showed us the manifold ‘spine’ of the cell, which looked like a rat maze (again made from vacuum formed abs!). Here I asked him about the 50kw cell and liked what I heard, his response was ‘why 50kw?’
> 
> The original intention was to make these units produce 50kw then stack then up each finished unit been made from 4 x 12.5kw cell stacks. He then pointed out that to do that you would need individual parts for each 50kw unit ie x many pumps, x many control valves, x many filters etc. He then went onto explain the concept of the scalable cell that they now have their eyes set on, as in the diagrams of the super green power station we have seen this will consist of numerous cells (10kw according to Howard) which are stacked up in rows both horizontally and vertically, each one bolted onto the next all sharing the common parts such as electrolyte pumps and hydrogen delivery.
> 
> *Thus the concept of the 50kw cell is old hat, say hello megawatts !! *I’m sure the 50kw cell will have its place but this scalable power station is where the future lies for AFC in my opinion. This is where the engineering expertise of WSL and Air products will come in to make it a reality and thus make us all quite a lot of dosh in the process. A fact GL was not shy about saying. They are creating a product to make money not indulge science!




http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/det...&id=7073619&prevpost=7073532&nextpost=7073703


----------



## basilio

Boardroom radio has an interview with Peter Bond which covers the purchase of the AFC fuel cell shares and why Bond thinks this is such a big deal. Also a discussion on the use of UCG coal cavities to sequester CO2. Looks like action on AFC fuel cells within 3-6 months. Good value

http://www.brr.com.au/event/69694/partner/brr


----------



## Mickel

LNC S/P appears to be on the move upwards. About 500,000 shares traded in last 20 minutes raised the s/p from $1.86 to $1.91 after a high of $1.93.

Perhaps in response to the BRR interview with PB ????


----------



## basilio

This is a BIG push.  Another surge to 1.965.  Wonder if there are any new announcements coming up or has the penny dropped?


----------



## Mickel

GO LNC !!! GO LNC !!! GO LNC !!!

Another surge to $1.99 on turnover of 3 M shares to date. Currently $1.97.

I'm wondering if there is some good news coming from Alaska ????
They were due to start drilling for gas on the 7th Oct.
Any news of when they actually started drilling ???


----------



## bennib0i

$2.08! sometime is happening...

Very big uptake this late friday afternoon


----------



## noie

bennib0i said:


> $2.08! sometime is happening...
> 
> Very big uptake this late friday afternoon




Its always nice to end the week making some gains 

I feel i have to move LNC from the Coal sector on my board to the mixed Energy sector

The bit about today that really interests me is the 2.2 spike off a quick million trades....


----------



## awg

noie said:


> Its always nice to end the week making some gains
> 
> I feel i have to move LNC from the Coal sector on my board to the mixed Energy sector
> 
> The bit about today that really interests me is the 2.2 spike off a quick million trades....




The GTL technology was what I always thought was the potential jewel for LNC, and with non-core coal and cash assets equal to (what was) the market cap, 

you get all this new potential technology, and their other core assets and UCG technology thrown in for next to nothing..sounds like a good deal.

If LNC really cracks any of the technologies they are working on, SP being touted a few years back might eventuate

Yes thanks LNC for help finishing my day green on a red day for the market


----------



## Jonathan111

Hi Teabags,

The market depth looks different now..

The shorters were blown away..  

Sometimes computer generated programs manipulate the market depth.

Anything could happen

Regards,
Jonathan


----------



## teabagger

Yeah,

Thanks Jonathan, that does look better now, and with an increase in the sp I feel better too!

It's funny that a lot of you guys are all fairly well informed and able to dig up info, but so far no one knows why this sudden interest, and why no please explain?

Thanks


----------



## basilio

teabagger said:


> Yeah,
> 
> Thanks Jonathan, that does look better now, and with an increase in the sp I feel better too!
> 
> It's funny that a lot of you guys are all fairly well informed and able to dig up info, but so far no one knows why this sudden interest, and why no please explain?
> 
> Thanks




I believe LNC is just so undervalued it's not funny. The market should now have confidence that there will be at least another $500m coal sale within the next 3 months._ Kaching, kaching_. The overseas operations particularly in Alaska suggest another mini boom. The UCG process is progressing rapidly to commercialization and the potential of the AFC hydrogen fuel cell to revolutionize cheap clean power production is world changing (and I don't believe that is overstating the case).

If you were any sort of analyst and considered what these projects alone could do for LNC you would have to jump in at the current price. And remember LNC is still way below 2008 figures when these prospects (let alone the GTL project) weren't even on the radar. 

And of course that $500m coal sale may be a lot closer than we think...

Maybe a few people are doing their job.


----------



## dogeatdog

teabagger said:


> Yeah,
> 
> Thanks Jonathan, that does look better now, and with an increase in the sp I feel better too!
> 
> It's funny that a lot of you guys are all fairly well informed and able to dig up info, but so far no one knows why this sudden interest, and why no please explain?
> 
> Thanks




I purchased a reasonable number of Linc shares in June this year, following advice from a good friend who has been a follower, and investor in Linc since the pre dizzy days of $5 a share.
I've watched the sp with eager anticipation almost every day since.
My own take on  the current "low" sp, has a lot to do with former failed attempts to sell the non core coal tenements, to the Chinese.
Peter Bond/Linc, lost credibility with the market analysts.
Obviously the stock market crash back in 2008 didn't help.
Also the technology the company is attempting to go main stream with, has it's doubters and critics in important positions of power.
Todays 12% sp increase has caught many by surprise, as there appears to be no fundamental reason for it.
The last time the sp took off, was following a press release from Adani, which highlighted their interest in one of the coal tenements.
I guess we will see next week, if there is further news, to satisfy our curiosity.
There are so many positives that can drive the sp up in the near and medium future, providing the global economy remains on terra therma.
Any further input welcomed.
Relaxing weekend people


----------



## Jonathan111

After hearing about the director buying on market I was very tempted to sell all my holdings in other companies and put the proceeds into Linc.

I think there is alot of interest gathering in Linc in the UK.

There has been quite a bit of consoldiation for 3 months too.

1.80 was surprising after the first coal sale.. 

I shudder to suggest where the share price will be if GTL and/or the Fuel Cells work out well for Linc. 

It seems to me Peter Bond uses expert advice and makes good decisions for Linc's future. He has come a long way and i am quite confident in his leadership. The purchase of Sapex, the move to SA, Alaska the AFC deal, the coal sale contract just to name a few.


----------



## Mickel

teabagger said:


> Yeah,
> 
> Thanks Jonathan, that does look better now, and with an increase in the sp I feel better too!
> 
> It's funny that a lot of you guys are all fairly well informed and able to dig up info, but so far no one knows why this sudden interest, and why no please explain?
> 
> Thanks




Hi Teabags

Regarding the absence of a "Please Explain" notice, there probably was one issued either during or after trading on Friday. The ASX will require an answer before commencement of trading on Monday. The LNC announcement will include the "speeding ticket" or "Please Explain" and their response.

I refer you to the previous one for LNC in July 2010 as an example of this-

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100722/pdf/31rfyp02hhp790.pdf


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> Linc looks like it is in a normal consolidation to me. Downside looks minimal, say $1.70 area and over $1.95 looks like blue sky until $2.50 odd. Some resistance around $2.20 but we should do the high end of the 2.20-50 area IMO FWIW.




Well done Mr Z!!! Your analysis on 15 Sept appears to be on the money so far. I hope the last part (ie $2.20- $2.50) eventuates in the short term.


----------



## Mickel

MORE ACTION IN THE GALILEE BASIN-

Hancock Coal

Queensland’s Galilee Basin is turning out to be a hotbed of activity in the coal sector with reports that Australia’s richest woman Gina Rinehart is in talks to sell a stake of her coal business, Hancock Coal, in a deal potentially worth up to $2 billion. According to The Australian Financial Review, Hancock Coal, which has been in talks with interested parties over the sale of its Alpha and Kevin’s corner projects for the last couple of months, has received several bids from potential international suitors. The Galilee Basin shot into limelight a few months ago with India’s Adani Group sealing a $2.7 billion deal with Linc Energy and it looks likes Indian players are again leading the list of likely contenders. While Adani may itself be eyeing a bigger chunk of the coal in the basin, the list could include the likes of Reliance Industries, Essar, NPTC and Coal India, which is set to kick-start its $US3.5 billion IPO today. According to the AFR, Hancock has had talks with Coal India with regards to the projects and the cashed up Indian coal giant could be in the picture here. Chinese interest could come from Shenhua Group and Coal China, while US-based Peabody and Brazil’s Vale may also be in the mix, the paper added.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...n-pd20101018-ABRDS?OpenDocument&src=eaih&ir=3

I hope this interest in Gina's coal tenements is not adversely affecting LNC's efforts to sell the Teresa tenement.


----------



## profitmann

Mickel said:


> MORE ACTION IN THE GALILEE BASIN-
> 
> Hancock Coal
> 
> Queensland’s Galilee Basin is turning out to be a hotbed of activity in the coal sector with reports that Australia’s richest woman Gina Rinehart is in talks to sell a stake of her coal business, Hancock Coal, in a deal potentially worth up to $2 billion. According to The Australian Financial Review, Hancock Coal, which has been in talks with interested parties over the sale of its Alpha and Kevin’s corner projects for the last couple of months, has received several bids from potential international suitors. The Galilee Basin shot into limelight a few months ago with India’s Adani Group sealing a $2.7 billion deal with Linc Energy and it looks likes Indian players are again leading the list of likely contenders. While Adani may itself be eyeing a bigger chunk of the coal in the basin, the list could include the likes of Reliance Industries, Essar, NPTC and Coal India, which is set to kick-start its $US3.5 billion IPO today. According to the AFR, Hancock has had talks with Coal India with regards to the projects and the cashed up Indian coal giant could be in the picture here. Chinese interest could come from Shenhua Group and Coal China, while US-based Peabody and Brazil’s Vale may also be in the mix, the paper added.
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...n-pd20101018-ABRDS?OpenDocument&src=eaih&ir=3
> 
> I hope this interest in Gina's coal tenements is not adversely affecting LNC's efforts to sell the Teresa tenement.




The Infrastructure (ie Rail) for all this coal to become a mining reality is a long way off IMO. Watch for the Qld Government annoucment on where it is going to spend its windfall gain post the float of QR. My mail is that it won`t be on Rail Infrastructure!! You heard it here first!!


----------



## luckypaul

More on Adani including their interest in UCG. That may either be following the agreement already made with Linc or additional stuff we have yet to hear about. They certainly do not seem scared of spending large amounts of cash...



> 10/18/2010 16:33:26 - CORRECT: Adani Enterprises To Invest A$6.9 Bln In Australia Coal Project
> By Eric Yep
> 
> Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
> 
> MUMBAI (Dow Jones)--Adani Enterprises Ltd. (512599.BY) said Monday it will invest A$6.9 billion in Australia to develop the company's coal mines and related infrastructure in the state of Queensland.
> 
> The investment, one of the largest by an Indian company in the island continent, comes after a similar investment by Adani Enterprises in coal and transportation assets in Indonesia as Indian coal and power producers increasingly look overseas to secure energy resources.
> 
> India's power producers, to meet rapid industrialization and urbanization, are adding thousands of megawatts of generation capacity, most of which is dependant on coal for fuel. According to government think tank Planning Commission, coal will be needed to meet more than 50% of India's primary energy requirements by fiscal 2032.
> 
> Adani Enterprises, a unit of the diversified Adani group, said it will develop the Galilee basin coal mine as well as rail and port projects in Queensland. It had bought the thermal coal property from Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC.AU) in August for A$500 million plus royalties.
> 
> The company didn't give any timetable for the investment, which Executive Chairman Gautam Adani in a statement said will be "the largest ever Indian investment in Australia."
> 
> Adani Enterprises plans to begin production from the Galilee coal mine by the end of 2014 and achieve output of between 50 million and 60 million metric tons a year by 2022, he added.
> 
> Queensland's premier, Anna Bligh, said the Galilee tenement, which is being renamed Carmichael tenement, will become the largest operating coal mines in Australia and one of the largest in the world when it reaches peak production.
> 
> Adani Enterprises, which operates businesses such as power generation, ports, coal mining and logistics, also opened its Brisbane office Monday.
> 
> The company plans to have annual coal mining capacity of 200 million tons, power generation capacity of 20,000 MW and the ability to transport 200 million tons of cargo through its ports by 2020.
> 
> In August, the company said it agreed to set up a dedicated rail and port project with a provincial government in Indonesia and state-run coal miner PT Bukit Asam, one of the largest coal producers in Indonesia and the owner of the country's second-largest coal reserves.
> 
> In return, Adani Enterprises got the rights to buy as much as 60% of the coal from PT Bukit Asam and the permission to use its infrastructure to move at least 35 million tons of coal a year. The Indian company had also agreed to set up a 350-kilometer rail line, which can transport 60 million tons of coal a year, and a port of similar capacity.
> 
> In Australia, Adani Enterprises said it would explore opportunities for downstream operations in the coal sector. It said it will also look at underground coal-gasification and coal-to-liquid technologies.
> 
> -By Eric Yep, Dow Jones Newswires; 91-22-6145-6110; eric.yep@dowjones.com
> 
> Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=ZAztfERskB87p5Nmmx/WSA==. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 
> October 18, 2010 10:33 ET (14:33 GMT)
> 
> © 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


----------



## dogeatdog

Hopefully this type of article from "The Australian", wont have a major impact on the Linc sp 

A KOREAN gas company has signed a coal seam gas research deal with the University of Queensland. 
Under the five-year agreement, the university and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) will collaborate on research and training.

The deal comes amid calls to suspend the coal seam gas industry following a spate of contamination incidents at Queensland operations.

Yesterday, cancer-causing chemicals were found in eight exploration wells at a central Queensland coal seam gas operation.

Four toxic chemicals benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) were discovered in the hydraulic fractured wells in the Surat Basin, near Miles, Origin and its Australia Pacific liquefied natural gas (Australia Pacific LNG) joint venture partner ConocoPhillips have revealed.

In mid-July, the Queensland government suspended Cougar Energy's underground coal gasification project near Kingaroy, in the state's southeast, after underground water was contaminated with benzene and toluene.


----------



## basilio

Well one quick spurt into the $2.20s to tempt our confidence -- and then back to the doldrums. Disappointing.

I think the reality is that most market sentiment at the moment is negative. There are many overriding fear factors in play which mean that almost all the payers are taking profits as quickly as they can.   I suppose in this climate that means that  a company will really have to earn its supposed share value with results, profits and dividends rather than speculation - unless it's a one day wonder.

In the bigger picture I think this will play havoc with the super and pension funds which must be going absolutely nowhere. And with many baby boomer finally retiring one could see these funds having to sell shares to pay benefits..


----------



## Jonathan111

2011 is nearly here Basilio!

Im sure we will back up there soon.

Check this presentation out if you havent already!

ASX Small to Mid Caps Conference

A lot of new info on the short term direction on LNC.

some of the points in the presentation:

Joint Venture arrangements in Asia, including India to be announced late 2010 (must coincide with the red points on the map)

The points about Enhanced oil recovery, seems to have risen suddenly. There must be lots of talk with a potential JV/partner going on.

LNC has its own EOR team in Casper, Wyoming
Shortage of CO2 at quantities for EOR to which UCG is the answer.

June 2011: Contracts on modularised plant.

First operational gasifier in Wyoming due late 2011, 
leading to multiple gasifiers for revenue and
EOR production

To sell another coal resource in Q1 2011 Qld (hopefully by christmas)
Theresa tenement: Under negotiation ‐ conservative independent valuation over AUD500Mn
Complete LEA‐1 well in December 2010 Alaska Gas
Target of ~AUD1Bn in the bank by Q2, 2011 
No stock dilution (Great!)
Strategic Joint Ventures for EOR/GTL and power
generation opportunities.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Well one quick spurt into the $2.20s to tempt our confidence -- and then back to the doldrums. Disappointing.
> 
> Interesting to see the AFC sp in the UK continues to rise.
> I've been trying to dig up info on the status of the Lea #1 project. Nothing!
> 
> Linc needs some positive news, either a tenement sale or a gas find to
> put the stock back on the radar.
> 
> LNC holder.


----------



## dogeatdog

21 Oct 2010 ASX Conference Presentation Hong Kong (Linc energy web site).

Having just looked at the Linc presentation, it would appear 2011, rather than Q4 of this year, is when all the exciting progress will be announced.
However Lea #1 will give the sp a boost this year if the guys find gas


----------



## luckypaul

Has anyone noticed that 4 days out of 5 there is a trade at the close or after the close which drops the Linc share price? Today was a sell of 117,496 shares which took the SP down from 1.86 to 1.85. Not a lot I know, but this happens on a regular basis usually with between 50,000 and 200,000 shares.

Could this be a fund trying to drop the price by buying during the day and then selling at the end so they can buy in cheaper the next day? Something is weird here. 

Please see the attachment for todays chart but, as I said, this happens more often or not since the last coal sale was announced.

Anyone have any clues?


----------



## teabagger

Federal Environment Minister Tony Burke on Friday conditionally approved the Gladstone Liquefied Natural Gas (GLNG) - a joint venture between Santos, Malaysia's Petronas and France's Total - and BG Group's Queensland Curtis LNG.

Looks like this announcement has had a positive rub off effect on linc. Or maybe the new trend is that Fridays are becomming green days for linc.

Who needs charts


----------



## luckypaul

Linc Annual report to Shareholders relased today (22/10/2010). This presentation contains lots of good stuff but you need good eyesight. Enjoy!


----------



## Mickel

Jonathan111 said:


> 2011 is nearly here Basilio!
> 
> Im sure we will back up there soon.
> 
> Check this presentation out if you havent already!
> 
> ASX Small to Mid Caps Conference
> 
> A lot of new info on the short term direction on LNC.
> 
> some of the points in the presentation:
> 
> Joint Venture arrangements in Asia, including India to be announced late 2010 (must coincide with the red points on the map)
> 
> The points about Enhanced oil recovery, seems to have risen suddenly. There must be lots of talk with a potential JV/partner going on.
> 
> LNC has its own EOR team in Casper, Wyoming
> Shortage of CO2 at quantities for EOR to which UCG is the answer.
> 
> June 2011: Contracts on modularised plant.
> 
> First operational gasifier in Wyoming due late 2011,
> leading to multiple gasifiers for revenue and
> EOR production
> 
> To sell another coal resource in Q1 2011 Qld (hopefully by christmas)
> Theresa tenement: Under negotiation ‐ conservative independent valuation over AUD500Mn
> Complete LEA‐1 well in December 2010 Alaska Gas
> Target of ~AUD1Bn in the bank by Q2, 2011
> No stock dilution (Great!)
> Strategic Joint Ventures for EOR/GTL and power
> generation opportunities.




Good summary, Jonathon. I particularily like the first point you quote, namely

*"Joint Venture arrangements in Asia, including India to be announced late 2010".
*
as this is very close. I wonder if it will be announced before/at the AGM on 25th November. It hopefully will provide another boost to the s/p together with the other coal resource sale, if it happens before Christmas.

Good close on Friday with s/p up 9.5c to $1.945.

I continue to hold LNC.


----------



## Jonathan111

luckypaul said:


> Linc Annual report to Shareholders relased today (22/10/2010). This presentation contains lots of good stuff but you need good eyesight. Enjoy!




Some points that stuck out for me were: 

Gasifier 4 continously running since Feb 2010

Gasifier 4 designed as a near commercial scale, functioning as a commercial scale gasifier. 

(I am wondering if there are restrictions by QLD gov, in regards to LNC running a commerical size ucg plant for testing purposes at Chinchilla. It would be a bonus if they could go commercial at Chinchilla  )

Achieved gas level conversions comparable to those required for commercial operations.

First campaign of GTL April 10 - May 10 converted ucg syn gas to syn crude matching commercial targets. (I would like to see the figures though ) More campaigns underway.


----------



## Mickel

Announcement this morning that the Alaskan gas well, LEA1, has been spudded.
S/P breached $2.00 with a high of $2.03 so far.

"Further to its previous announcement of 14 July 2010, Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to announce that it has now spudded its first gas exploration well (LEA #1) on the Company’s oil and gas leases located in the Cook Inlet Basin.

The spudding of the LEA #1 well is the first drilling activity in Linc Energy’s Alaskan exploration program. The well has been designed to target a number of stacked gas objectives whilst intersecting regional coal measures.

The CEO of Linc Energy, Peter Bond, said, “Spudding LEA #1 in such a short period since the acquisition of these leases is a significant achievement by Linc Energy’s Alaskan staff and one which further demonstrates our committed effort to enter the United States energy market. These Alaskan assets will be a definitive part of the early cash-flow opportunities for Linc Energy in the months ahead. I look forward to updating the market on the results from LEA #1 and the expansion of our operations and exploration activities within Alaska in due course."

Hopefully some more good news in the next few weeks !

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-289.pdf


----------



## basilio

Anyone else notice how LNC latest investment has gone totally ballistic?  

LNC purchased 10% of AFC (Alkaline Fuel Cell) at 17.72p earlier in October. *Current price of AFC is 59c and climbing steeply *- all on the strength of its fuel cell technology. *That's well over 300% in a couple of weeks...* 

Some very happy campers on AFC discussion boards looking for LNC and co to quickly establish the first commercial fuel cell power stations.

And wouldn't it be great if we had some action down under as well.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L&display=summary&it=le


----------



## noirua

I started this thread and sold out too soon. If it wasn't for ASF it would not have started at all. That reminds me! Yes, there's a vote over at The Bull and that's a linc sorry link, well coming up and gives us all a chance to support ASF and its continuance:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

Thank you all, and good fortune to the green basis of Linc Energy in Australia and abroad.


----------



## basilio

> LNC purchased 10% of AFC (Alkaline Fuel Cell) at 17.72p earlier in October. Current price of AFC is *59c* and climbing steeply - all on the strength of its fuel cell technology. That's well over 300% in a couple of weeks...




What  a difference a day makes.... AFC currently *76.5 p*.Wonder if any of LNC's staff opted to buy in when LNC decided to exercise their option on AFC a couple of weeks ago ?

Again it will be interesting to see at what stage the potential of the fuel cell technology becomes appreciated and thus LNC's role in providing the fuel for that process.


----------



## dogeatdog

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Energy corporation BG Group said on Sunday it had given final approval to a $15 billion project to develop a major new liquefied natural gas project in northeastern Australia. 

The above has to be good news for Linc going forward.
If nothing else, it shows a willingness by the politicians etc, to accept the enviromental issues for the use of coal as a raw material to be converted into alternative forms of fuels.

Lnc holder.


----------



## dogeatdog

This week could see a turning point for global equities.
With the FED meeting on Wednesday to determine how much, if any, new money to pump into the US economy.
I expect low trading volumes, as far as linc are concerned, up until the announcement, followed by either "steady as she blows" or "all hands to the pumps". 
My fingers are crossed for the former.
IMHO of course


----------



## Mickel

It appears LNC is on the move again. Up more than 4% (8.5c) to $2.07 while ASX all ords is up 0.1%. All on turnover of 700,000 in 40 mins of trading.

Is there some good news in the wings ????


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

RE Mickel, good news in the wings? LNC has rerate written all over it, just a matter of time imo.


----------



## snowking

either there is some news in the wings or investors have decided LNC is worth more than current SP and the re-rating is beginning now. Up 4.5% again today.


----------



## dogeatdog

Wednesdays positive news out of the US, has helped the linc sp gain 4.88% today, with a high of 2.20 IMHO
Linc announced an internal guy to act as the new company secretary, highly praised by PB.
Hopefully a closing sp of 2.20 plus to end the week?
Not wanting to tempt fate, but all looking rather rosey 

Lnc holder.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

Up today on the appointment of a company secretary, now if only LNC would hire another 10 more of them we'd be closer to intrinsic value. 

On a serious note though, I agree with you DogEatDog, if we get some positive cashflow from the N. American operations it'd be much more likely to rerate in the short term. We have sufficient capital (450 million or so) to fund any well drilling or development we'd need, 100% internally so no need for debt or dilution of shares at this point. I'm just holding out for that drilling report in the near term.


----------



## dogeatdog

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Up today on the appointment of a company secretary, now if only LNC would hire another 10 more of them we'd be closer to intrinsic value.
> 
> On a serious note though, I agree with you DogEatDog, if we get some positive cashflow from the N. American operations it'd be much more likely to rerate in the short term. We have sufficient capital (450 million or so) to fund any well drilling or development we'd need, 100% internally so no need for debt or dilution of shares at this point. I'm just holding out for that drilling report in the near term.




A second coal tenement sale, pronto! would remove the need for any external funding requirements for sure.

Still no update from Linc regarding the procurement process, for the proposed core business, CTG etc.

Any O&G people participating in this thread, who can give an insight as to the likelyhood of finding the anticipated hydro carbons at Lea 1, as it's the first attempt?


----------



## Mickel

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Up today on the appointment of a company secretary, now if only LNC would hire another 10 more of them we'd be closer to intrinsic value.
> 
> On a serious note though, I agree with you DogEatDog, if we get some positive cashflow from the N. American operations it'd be much more likely to rerate in the short term. We have sufficient capital (450 million or so) to fund any well drilling or development we'd need, 100% internally so no need for debt or dilution of shares at this point. I'm just holding out for that drilling report in the near term.




Regarding available cash that LNC currently has, the latest qrtly report states $492M on hand at 30/9/10.This is before the dividend of approx $50M was paid on 8/10/10. There is also approx $60M tax to be paid on the $500M sale (deductions of approx $300M estimated).

While the remaining $382M is sufficient to fund any well drilling , development of gas wells and normal exploration, it may not be sufficient to also fund even a 5000 bpd GTL plant.

PB has stated many times that he doesn't wish to further dilute current shareholdings but he has stated that they could consider a partner to fund the GTL plant to lessen the risk. They could also now borrow without the convertible share option IMO.

Also we have the pending sale of Teresa for $600M+ hopefully, so there are plenty of funding options.

The increasing S/P is also pushing LNC towards the ASX 100 index. Once there, fund managers will be buying more of the stock which will push the S/P even higher.

Long term LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

It will be* very *interesting to such if LNC can continue it's  run today.

On my screen there are sell orders for *415,000 shares* at 2.19/2.20.  Looks like the limits of the last spike. We'll see what happens. 

From the look of the buy side there is some serious interest coming up this morning. 

Last few days have been very encouraging.


----------



## basilio

There is some serious buying this morning. Now at 2.23 after breaking through the big group of sellers at $2.20 (or they could have regrouped...)

On balance I hope there isn't any announcement in the wings and that this is just the start of  the re rating of LNC that is long overdue.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

Whoa Basil I agree 100% with you except for the last bit about the no news, if we have a Teresa sale already... That'd make LNC's MC well below the current cash backing of itself, and trigger a MASSIVE rerating ala, last time it shot from 1 dollar to where it is today on the Adani deal. Maybe 2.50 - 3 dollars if LNC gets say 500 million for Teresa, gives the cash backing at around 850-900 million.


----------



## basilio

LNC is certainly not mucking around. Up another 12c at the moment to 2.38. And still no particular announcement in sight. 

And buyers now well out weighing sellers.  Very sunny day indeeeeed.

____________________________
_
I think 2.38  was a very short term sprint._


----------



## bennib0i

basilio said:


> LNC is certainly not mucking around. Up another 12c at the moment to 2.38. And still no particular announcement in sight.
> 
> And buyers now well out weighing sellers.  Very sunny day indeeeeed.
> 
> ____________________________
> _
> I think 2.38  was a very short term sprint._




Yes true!
But as per the usual LNC camp, there is usually a tiny leak before a big annoucement is made public. Perhaps an important announcement is coming very soon and the insiders are getting ready to cash (remembers the last coal sale).


----------



## teabagger

basilio said:


> LNC is certainly not mucking around. Up another 12c at the moment to 2.38. And still no particular announcement in sight.
> 
> And buyers now well out weighing sellers.  Very sunny day indeeeeed.
> 
> ____________________________
> _
> I think 2.38  was a very short term sprint._





It looks like 2.38 is becomming familiar. Would like to see some news come out that might explain the recent rises


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> Linc looks like it is in a normal consolidation to me. Downside looks minimal, say $1.70 area and over $1.95 looks like blue sky until $2.50 odd. Some resistance around $2.20 but we should do the high end of the 2.20-50 area IMO FWIW.




I've praised Mr Z's 15 Sept interpreptation of the charts before and it still looks spot on IMO.

As others have said, there may not be any concrete news "in the pipeline" but simply a recognition by the market that the stock is undervalued.

Mr Z, I'd be interested if you have any more to add on LNC.


----------



## Mickel

MORE ON EOR (ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY)

In the latest Limelight series of talks to shareholders in Adelaide on 28 Oct
( http://www.lincenergy.com.au/boardroom_radio.php ).

 Justyn Peters was praising EOR particularily in USA. The BRR recording covers much of the same things as previous presentations. However, the Q and A session at the end was lengthy and informative.

Further info on EOR is on a Shell website-
http://www.shell.com/home/content/innovation/meeting_demand/eor/

and a link on that page- http://www-static.shell.com/static/...ding_on_innovation/article_willem_schulte.pdf

is an article quoting one of Shell's Chief Scientists, Willem Schulte on EOR.

Part of what he said -

*"Oil production increase 2030

Willem supports estimates that by 2030 EOR will be responsible for around 20 per cent of total oil production up from only three per cent today. This would mean that in a little over twenty years time, EOR could account for up to 20 million barrels of oil production per day, equivalent to nearly a quarter of what is currently produced in total today.

Reaching production volumes of this level will require getting an average of half the oil out of each reservoir, not a third, as is the case currently. "

*The fact that UCG can capture CO2 (one of the gases suitable for EOR) with little extra cost and could sell it to nearby oil wells would be a win/win/win.

1. Dispose of a greenhouse gas in an environmentally friendly way.
2. Obtain an income stream in the process.
3. Assist in extracting more oil from existing oil fields which could provide more energy security for both USA and Australia (including LNC's Sth Aust potential oil fields).

No wonder LNC are excited about the process.


----------



## dogeatdog

teabagger said:


> It looks like 2.38 is becomming familiar. Would like to see some news come out that might explain the recent rises




Or maybe the recent spudding news of Lea 1, and the possibility of finding a trillion cubic units of gas, may the speculators placing their bets:dunno:

Certainly these daily sp increases of 4.8%+ are pleasing to current holders, of which I continue to be one.


----------



## tehnoob

So far today LNC has hit an intraday high of 2.53, up 0.14 on yesterdays' close. Increasing volume each day for the last week. Can't be too far off either a speeding ticket or a juicy announcement from Mr Bond.


----------



## basilio

tehnoob said:


> So far today LNC has hit an intraday high of 2.53, up 0.14 on yesterdays' close. Increasing volume each day for the last week. Can't be too far off either a speeding ticket or a juicy announcement from Mr Bond.




Still think this is just the long overdue re rating of LNC. There will be ongoing excellent news from Alaskan gas drillings, coal sales, development of UCG projects in SA and so on but these in a sense have been well predicted. I believe the institutions are starting to move and as the SP moves up it encourages further investment because the other fund managers don't want to be left behind.
__________________________________________________________
I don't think managed funds really have much courage or imagination. It seems to me that they play it safe until it either becomes bleedingly obvious there is a big development in place or a couple of the pack make a start and it becomes a game of follow the leader. I suppose that's why ASF can be such a useful place to get market analysis and intelligence.
_


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Still think this is just the long overdue re rating of LNC. There will be ongoing excellent news from Alaskan gas drillings, coal sales, development of UCG projects in SA and so on but these in a sense have been well predicted. I believe the institutions are starting to move and as the SP moves up it encourages further investment because the other fund managers don't want to be left behind.
> 
> I'd like to share your optimism, basilo.
> I do aspire to match your positive thinking though.
> However, there appears to be a lack of "new" significant information out there, causing the consistant daily rise in the Linc sp.
> Where is MR Z with his charts when we need him
> LNC holder


----------



## teabagger

A good run, and this is swimming against the tide. If there was a half decent announcement strap your self in. Although as already stated, good news is probably priced in and people are realising the potential.

What I'd like to know is the potential divi once a few of these projects bring a revenue stream. I realise it will be an ongoing and developing investment. But as a so-far longterm holder the thought of a nice little earn per share keeps you going through the ups and downs

It seems GTL is not the overwhelming front and centre driver, and the focus seems to be on developing multiple income streams from other energy investments.

And again.... come on down Mr Z!


----------



## Mickel

*


teabagger said:



			What I'd like to know is the potential divi once a few of these projects bring a revenue stream. I realise it will be an ongoing and developing investment. But as a so-far longterm holder the thought of a nice little earn per share keeps you going through the ups and downs

It seems GTL is not the overwhelming front and centre driver, and the focus seems to be on developing multiple income streams from other energy investments.
		
Click to expand...


*


teabagger said:


> Hi Teabagger
> A previous BBY analyst report(which is no longer on LNC's website) in late 2008 showed an EBITA profit of $600M+ on a 20,000 bpd GTL plant. As the whole business plan has developed and changed over the last 2 yrs, profit from the GTL is not the immediate goal now but rather power generation.
> 
> However the net profit from GTL is still the diamond in the portfolio IMHO, even though there is a growing list of potential income streams. LNC's USA broker- Merriman Curhan Ford - has an analyst report on the LNC website which is about 12 months old.
> I would hope that they issue an updated analyst report in the near future. It would be very interesting to get the USA perspective as there is more emphasis on the operations in USA.


----------



## Mickel

On the LNC website there is a report published in a local Alaskan paper from a high school geology student on their Oct 22 visit to the LNC gas drill site (LEA1) during operations.

In part he states-
"The hole was 130 feet deep when the students arrived, and a distance of 40 feet was drilled while the students were on site. This greatly impressed many, especially an eighth-grader whose family runs a water well drilling business. When asked to guess how long the exploratory process would
probably take, most students widely overshot the actual figures. The bit touched the ground six months after the drill sight was selected. Twenty-one days of drilling is expected to allow the drill rig to reach its goal of 7,000 feet, where workers expect to hit volcanic rock. Saying the process
goes quickly does not mean processes are skipped or overlooked. The company has it together and is serious about what it does."

And further on he says-
"The drill station is purely exploratory. Whether or not gas is found will not be known until the findings of the exploration well have been reported after the drilling process is completely finished.
If nothing is found, the area will almost immediately and completely be reclaimed to nature. However, there is a large possibility the local market may be fed if a discovery is made."

21 days from Oct 22 is 13 Nov. If they have struck commercial gas flow I would expect they would know very quickly. So the next 2 weeks could prove to be very interesting.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-567.pdf


----------



## Mickel

A New Corporate Video on LNC's business model has been released on their website.

It emphasises operations in USA and highlights the EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) aspects in the business plan. It's about 9 minutes in length.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/boardroom_radio.php


----------



## basilio

We don't want to get too ahead of ourselves with LNC do we ? Great looking "re rate" during the week and then a sharp fall on Friday just to mess with our minds again.


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> A New Corporate Video on LNC's business model has been released on their website.
> 
> It emphasises operations in USA and highlights the EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) aspects in the business plan. It's about 9 minutes in length.
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com.au/boardroom_radio.php




That is a very good story on LNC. Probably needs (and has) some back up figures for the bean counters but when you recognise the elegant way that UCG also revives old oil fields  through the injection of CO2 as well as  providing an immediate quality resource all the light bulbs light up.

It will be even more interesting when the hydrogen fuel cell capability is  written into the picture.


----------



## ColB

> *Originally Posted by Basilio*
> 
> We don't want to get too ahead of ourselves with LNC do we ? Great looking "re rate" during the week and then a sharp fall on Friday just to mess with our minds again




It had to happen Bas.  As markets soften after the recent runup a few profit takers have come in.  With the Dow dropping 70 points overnight and concerns in China the profit takers have probably timed it right as Monday will probably see a further drop UNLESS LNC come out with the LEA Drill results [Due 13/11 ??] or some other magic

See article below...

*The Explorers 2010: Linc Energy - 14 November 2010* 

Linc Energy isn’t dilly-dallying in Alaska. The Australian company bought 123,000 acres from fellow independent GeoPetro Resources in March 2010 and immediately planned a drilling program. 

Linc is/has drilled the LEA No. 1 well near Point MacKenzie in October to look for conventional natural gas resources, but longer term the company is focused on generating synthesis gas from deep coal deposits using Underground Coal Gasification.   

The drilling site is near an existing Enstar Natural Gas distribution line.

Source: http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/116497741.shtml

*Article edited - For full version see above link*


----------



## teabagger

Had a sell set at 2.50 yesterday and was then hoping to come back in at a lower price and gain some more. Missed out on that one.....but it could have gone the other way too! I guess thats why I keep the day job and primarily hold long term.

Maybe this will present an opportunity to pick up some more. I noticed the dow went down last night which probably will lead to a softer Monday.

Don't take my advice, I'm only 9 posts old...lots to learn!

Have a good weekend.


----------



## basilio

There are a number of presentations around from LNC which pull together the story they are selling to investors and partners around the world. The corporate video for example recently quoted is one example.

Came across another presentation made to a Hong Kong audience which included a reference to fuel cell powered power plant in the first quarter of 2011. (_I have very high hopes for this part of LNC's plans because I think it might actually address the biggest questions of  producing carbon free electricity )_

The refefence is on slide 22.

http://www.slideshare.net/plsderrick/linc-energy-2010-asx-conference-presentation-hong-kong


----------



## Mickel

LNC announcement today is encouraging but not definitive-

18 November 2010
ALASKAN GAS EXPLORATION PROGRAM SHOWS COMMERCIAL GAS POTENTIAL
. Drilling of LEA #1 exploration well in the Cook Inlet Basin completed
. The well was successfully drilled to its target depth of 6,323 feet
. LEA #1 was completed on time and within budget
. A number of gas bearing horizons have been encountered
. A testing program is now underway to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production
. Preparation for an expansion of Linc Energy’s Alaskan natural gas drilling program is underway
Linc Energy (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to report that it has completed the drilling of the LEA #1 exploration well in the Point Mackenzie Block of the Cook Inlet Basin in Alaska, USA.
The well was drilled to a total depth of 6,323 feet into the basement volcanic rocks. LEA #1 encountered a number of gas bearing horizons and 7” casing has been run and cemented. This will allow Linc Energy’s technical teams to plan a testing program to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production from the prospect. A number of significant coal seams were encountered as expected. Coal is recognised as the source rock for all the gas discovered and produced from the prolific Tyonek, Beluga and Sterling formations in the Cook Inlet Basin.
Linc Energy CEO Mr. Peter Bond said “In light of the fact that Linc Energy took over these Leases in June, it is an exceptional result that by October, our team planned and permitted a drill site, built the pad, contracted the rig and spudded the LEA #1 well. The safe completion of the well to depth, within budget and time is also a fantastic outcome.* It will now take our team about a month to conduct the relevant tests upon LEA #1 to define a commercial outcome. I am very excited about the opportunity that Alaska offers, particularly for the potential for early cashflow to Linc Energy.”
*
In addition to testing at LEA #1, Linc Energy will now prepare for phase two of its Alaskan natural gas drilling program in its Trading Bay Block leases which are located on the northwest side of the Cook Inlet approximately 70 miles from the site of LEA #1.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-293.pdf

S/P is currently up 11c to $2.41 after reaching a high earlier today of $2.46


----------



## Mickel

More good news from LNC website is a report on AFC Energy's Fuel Cell
Technology

*CPI finds AFC Energy’s fuel cell technology close to commercialisation*
By Toby Price

Posted 16 November 2010 @ 03:04 pm BST

An independent technical report from the Centre for Process Innovation (CPI)
has this week confirmed major technical advances made by AFC Energy plc,
the world’s leading developer of low cost alkaline fuel cells. Dr Jon Helliwell,
Project Manager of Fuel Cell Applications at CPI has undertaken an
independent technical review of AFC Energy, gaining an exclusive insight into
their Beta fuel cell system, the future of green energy generation.
*
In this report, the third in a twenty-four month period, Helliwell was
overwhelmed by the dramatic progress made by the company in terms of both
technical innovation, design concepts and targets achieved and was left in no
doubt that AFC Energy will deliver on their commercialisation goals.*

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-568.pdf


----------



## dogeatdog

Even more potential good news from the Linc web site.
Would be marvelous to get positive results from the well to drive up the sp, now that a second coal tenement sale appears less imminent this year.

18 November 2010
ALASKAN GAS EXPLORATION PROGRAM SHOWS COMMERCIAL GAS POTENTIAL
● Drilling of LEA #1 exploration well in the Cook Inlet Basin completed
● The well was successfully drilled to its target depth of 6,323 feet
● LEA #1 was completed on time and within budget
● A number of gas bearing horizons have been encountered
● A testing program is now underway to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production
● Preparation for an expansion of Linc Energy’s Alaskan natural gas drilling program is underway
Linc Energy (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to report that it has completed the drilling of the LEA #1 exploration well in the Point Mackenzie Block of the Cook Inlet Basin in Alaska, USA.
The well was drilled to a total depth of 6,323 feet into the basement volcanic rocks. LEA #1 encountered a number of gas bearing horizons and 7” casing has been run and cemented. This will allow Linc Energy’s technical teams to plan a testing program to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production from the prospect. A number of significant coal seams were encountered as expected. Coal is recognised as the source rock for all the gas discovered and produced from the prolific Tyonek, Beluga and Sterling formations in the Cook Inlet Basin.
Linc Energy CEO Mr. Peter Bond said “In light of the fact that Linc Energy took over these Leases in June, it is an exceptional result that by October, our team planned and permitted a drill site, built the pad, contracted the rig and spudded the LEA #1 well. The safe completion of the well to depth, within budget and time is also a fantastic outcome. It will now take our team about a month to conduct the relevant tests upon LEA #1 to define a commercial outcome. I am very excited about the opportunity that Alaska offers, particularly for the potential for early cashflow to Linc Energy.”
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
CONTINUED…
Page 2 of 2
In addition to testing at LEA #1, Linc Energy will now prepare for phase two of its Alaskan natural gas drilling program in its Trading Bay Block leases which are located on the northwest side of the Cook Inlet approximately 70 miles from the site of LEA #1


----------



## Mickel

More news on LNC's Teresa coal tenement and update on sale process-

"TERESA COAL ASSET UPDATE
● Further drilling on coal resource
● Commencement of Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)
● Participation in Stage 2 of Wiggins Island Coal Export Terminal (WICET)
● Sales process progressing'


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101122/pdf/31v14cbq97d7kr.pdf

While it's good to receive any update, this isn't likely to boost the S/P IMHO.
However it should increase the sale price of Teresa whenever it occurs.


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> More news on LNC's Teresa coal tenement and update on sale process-
> 
> "TERESA COAL ASSET UPDATE
> ● Further drilling on coal resource
> ● Commencement of Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)
> ● Participation in Stage 2 of Wiggins Island Coal Export Terminal (WICET)
> ● Sales process progressing'
> 
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101122/pdf/31v14cbq97d7kr.pdf
> 
> While it's good to receive any update, this isn't likely to boost the S/P IMHO.
> However it should increase the sale price of Teresa whenever it occurs.




I think it's very astute. LNC is making it clear it isn't just throwing Teresa onto the market as  a take it or leave it product. Each activity either improves the known value of the asset, makes it easier to develop or smooths the path for development. A bit like selling a block of land with an approved DA.

In that context all the buyers will be aware that the attractiveness of the tenement is increasing along with any increase in intrinsic vale as coal prices appreciate.  Should make them a bit keener to sign up at  a full price before another prospective buyer jumps in or further activity increases the value yet again.

*There is every possibility that the $5-10 million worth of investment here will translate into an extra $100m at sale time ( imho ) That's worth another 20c a share - not peanuts:*


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> I think it's very astute. LNC is making it clear it isn't just throwing Teresa onto the market as  a take it or leave it product. Each activity either improves the known value of the asset, makes it easier to develop or smooths the path for development. A bit like selling a block of land with an approved DA.
> 
> In that context all the buyers will be aware that the attractiveness of the tenement is increasing along with any increase in intrinsic vale as coal prices appreciate.  Should make them a bit keener to sign up at  a full price before another prospective buyer jumps in or further activity increases the value yet again.
> 
> *There is every possibility that the $5-10 million worth of investment here will translate into an extra $100m at sale time ( imho ) That's worth another 20c a share - not peanuts:*




I agree with your comments, Basilio. I probably didn't phrase my last comment very well. I meant that I didn't think that the announcement would have any effect on the S/P in the SHORT term. In fact the S/P did rise on that day (an up market day) but has not held since.

Looks like we'll have to wait for the analyst report on the LEA1 Gas Well drilling.


----------



## Mickel

A BRR interview with Peter Bond speaking about the drilling of LEA1 gas well in Alaska and how the analysis of the results is done.

http://www.lincenergy.com/boardroom_radio.php

I would welcome comments by anyone with gas well experience.


----------



## basilio

Presentation for the AGM is out.  Interesting as ever but I felt it left as many questions as it answered. I can only see the  power point presentation so perhaps a script will expand on the major points.

1) I didn't notice any mention of the South Australian project. I assume it was there somewhere but it escaped me . Anyone else see it ?

2) Also missed any comment on the AFC fuel cell technology. Perhaps playing possum on this opportunity ?

3) In the promotion of the EOR(Enhanced Oil Recovery)  projects in America I didn't notice any discussion on the returns from actually producing the syngas in the first place. It looks as if the whole process is purely about producing lots of CO2 to  pump into current oil fields. Where is the power generation and/or GTL plant ?

4) Interesting to see another coal sale being flagged in teh Great Northern coal lease.

5) Teresa sale now pitched for Q2011. They seem to be taking  a relaxed attitude to coal sales now that the first one is in the bank.

6) Also note their determination to prove up reserves around the world. One can see that after the first UCG plants prove the value of the previously worthless coal these assets will take on a whole new value.

Does look good.I could really see how the Wyoming operation will be a  (black) gold mine if it can gain profit from both the UCG operation AND the sale of the resulting CO2 . Big bucks.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Presentation for the AGM is out.  Interesting as ever but I felt it left as many questions as it answered. I can only see the  power point presentation so perhaps a script will expand on the major points.
> 
> 1) I didn't notice any mention of the South Australian project. I assume it was there somewhere but it escaped me . Anyone else see it ?
> 
> 2) Also missed any comment on the AFC fuel cell technology. Perhaps playing possum on this opportunity ?
> 
> 3) In the promotion of the EOR(Enhanced Oil Recovery)  projects in America I didn't notice any discussion on the returns from actually producing the syngas in the first place. It looks as if the whole process is purely about producing lots of CO2 to  pump into current oil fields. Where is the power generation and/or GTL plant ?
> 
> 4) Interesting to see another coal sale being flagged in teh Great Northern coal lease.
> 
> 5) Teresa sale now pitched for Q2011. They seem to be taking  a relaxed attitude to coal sales now that the first one is in the bank.
> 
> 6) Also note their determination to prove up reserves around the world. One can see that after the first UCG plants prove the value of the previously worthless coal these assets will take on a whole new value.
> 
> Does look good.I could really see how the Wyoming operation will be a  (black) gold mine if it can gain profit from both the UCG operation AND the sale of the resulting CO2 . Big bucks.




Bas, I was at the AGM and I'll comment on your various points  from what Bondy said in both his presentation and in answer to questions-

1. They need to do more drilling in the Walloway basin because of overburden problems where they have found suitable coal. This will take time so the immediate future in Sth Aust will be oil extraction in Arckaringa because it will be quicker.

2.I understand Bondy will be going to London within a day or so despite only arriving from New York Thursday morning. Could be some news from there soon. In answer to a question about possibility of using (Aussie)cemetric fuel cells,he replied that they are a much higher cost item but they may check out their suitability.

3. EOR is definately the prime focus at the moment IMO. Bondy mentioned that in some cases where they have oil production permits in Wyoming near UCG coal, they might pump all the gas (incl syngas) into the oil well for quick cheap oil production. It would be very quick because of little or no permitting required and no seperating of the CO2 and syngas. Depending on the Alaska gas analyst results, this oil recovery could be their first commercial operation.

4 & 5. Bondy mentioned in passing that they were currently negotiating with one party for sale of Teresa. IMO, he wisely said no more, but I had the impression that the sale of Teresa could happen at any time up to March 2011.

6. Agree totally. They want to purchase them cheaply and this is an intregal part of their business strategy. "Growth target of 100 Billion tonnes over next 18 mths".

The heading in the presentation "TOWARDS ONE BILLION" refers to their target of achieving $1 Billion of revenue ASAP.

Bondy basically said that the Alaska gas well was not a "gusher" but still could be a commercial operation. They need "to do the maths on the results".

IMO the recent addition of Oliver Yates (ex Macquarie Head of Operations America) to the board (Oct 2010)and now as Acting Chairman has influenced their focus on EOR.

A question on Vietnam operations drew a response that LNC are not spending any money or time there at the moment as the Govt is not on the same page regarding western commercial practices.

A good informative meeting but I think that there is a lot more going on that we haven't heard of yet. One overriding theme that was evident is that LNC wants commercial operations starting ASAP.


----------



## basilio

Excellent infill Mickel.  Helps make sense of the sllde show.

Certainly fascinated about the idea to simply gasify the coal and pump the whole lot into the oil wells to force out more oil.  Could be very quick and profitable.

And as for achieving a $1billion a year in revenue..... If for arguments sake costs were 50% that suggests a profit of $500 m a year-  $350m after tax. That would be around 70c a share (500 million shares). To reflect that sort of result the SP would have to be  $12-15 plus.  Can't say they have set their sights too low.

___________________________________________________________________________

_You know I really think that in line with LNC determination to prove a 100 billions tons of  underground coal, CTP with it's billions of tons of underground coal., location in Australia plus potential oil kitchens and a seemingly dispirited investor base is screaming out for a takeover - friendly or otherwise. _


----------



## dogeatdog

Personally, and as a Linc share holder, I'm a little concerned at the seemingly fickle approach to business.
Of course it's important to be able to change or adapt a business model, but I do think the company should focus on the original core business, and get at least one CTL module up and running.
I fear Linc will lose it's apparent lead in this technology otherwise.
Of course for the short term, and from a share holders point of view, any activity to increase the sp is good.
All IMHO.
Pleasnt weekend people


----------



## basilio

> Personally, and as a Linc share holder, I'm a little concerned at the seemingly fickle approach to business.
> Of course it's important to be able to change or adapt a business model, but I do think the company should focus on the original core business, and get at least one CTL module up and running.
> I fear Linc will lose it's apparent lead in this technology otherwise.




I can see your point dogeatdog but I  believe the UCG/GTL field is brand new territory(insofar as the current revival)  and  being nimble enough to recognize a range of possibilities for implementing it  will make excellent business sense.

In that context the latest analysis by Allenby Capital on the AFC fuel cell is pretty breath taking. Remember that LNC holds 10% of AFC, has a forward order on notice and has the rights to distribute the fuel cell technology in UCG applications around the world. 

*In a nutshell the analysis suggest the the fuel cell technology  has the capacity to challenge traditional turbines to provide competitively priced ,  clean power around the world. * LNC is very much part of that picture in that it plans to deploy 4 gigawatts of power stations using the UCG and AFC technologies over the next 10 years



> Underground Coal Gasification (UCG)
> The contribution to value from AFC‟s activities in UCG remains fundamentally unchanged in that it is anchored on Linc Energy‟s intended roll-out of 4.2GW of operating UCG sites throughout Australia, Europe and North America. After discussions with Linc‟s management earlier this year we projected 4.2GW of operational UCG by 2021 subject to the necessary permissions being obtained. We have pushed this roll-out back by two years. This is not based on AFC‟s capability to deliver its technology in the necessary volumes, but on what we view as a very ambitious time frame from Linc.       Allenby Report




http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content...lc-AFC-L-Allenby-Capital-29-November-2010.pdf


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Personally, and as a Linc share holder, I'm a little concerned at the seemingly fickle approach to business.
> Of course it's important to be able to change or adapt a business model, but I do think the company should focus on the original core business, and get at least one CTL module up and running.
> I fear Linc will lose it's apparent lead in this technology otherwise.
> Of course for the short term, and from a share holders point of view, any activity to increase the sp is good.
> All IMHO.
> Pleasnt weekend people




Doggy, I had the impression at the AGM that LNC is still working hard towards getting a GTL facility up and running ASAP. The issues that they are dealing with are IMO, -
1. Rising cost of the GTL plants
2. Finalizing the design of the plant modules to incorporate the latest improvements to their technology.
3. Selecting the contractor to build the modules.
4. Selecting the first site to produce the Diesel.

Because of 1. they are looking to have 5000bpd plant modules built in Asia to contain the costs.
Speaking with Daryl Rattai after the AGM he mentioned that they want to finalise the design before letting out contracts to build the modules as to change design once construction had started would incur heavy extra costs. 

It appears that advances at the Chinchilla demo plant are still occuring.
Daryl also mentioned that there were several world class engineering firms in Asia (incl Philippines & Singapore) that they were investigating.

Because of the overburden problems at Orroro, they need to find another site in that area for UCG and GTL. This has pushed Sth Aust back and the USA is likely to have the first GTL operation now.

In my view, LNC are still striving for a GTL plant to be up and running ASAP. However, because of various hiccups along the way, they are seeking to capitalise on other income streams in the short term. IMO LNC are fortunate to have these other "strings to their bow" to obtain cash flow. 

We can see with Carbon Energy (CNX) for instance, that their various hiccups (particularily in QLD), are having an adverse effect on their S/P.


----------



## basilio

That was a strong sustained  rise for LNC today in what was a falling market. 10c lift to $2.60 with no sign of falling away.  One might think that a few resistance levels have been broken and that the pressure on index funds to include LNC in their portfolio is coming to bear. There was a strong spurt in the last hour that took it to a new high of $2.62

It didn't look like the sort of  frantic buying that might herald a new announcement.


----------



## Mr Z

On my chart and assuming we can close the week out above $2.50 that should be a break. Next stop looks a little messy to me but I suspect that resistance starts @ 2.90 to 3.00 being around the top of a channel I have marked. Historically the price action from $3 to $5 was very messy, I think we have some historical overhead to work through there. The environment moving into next year looks supportive to me so this could produce some exciting rides over the next year, both up an down!!! JMO. DOYDD!


----------



## Mr Z

Mickel said:


> Mr Z, I'd be interested if you have any more to add on LNC.





Sorry... I missed your post, but it looks like I just did it 

$3 could prove to be a tough nut to crack given the stocks history up around these levels. It will be interesting to see if we get relieved long term holders bailing out OR if we have a share holder base of true believers. That dividend may have gone a long way to buying some loyalty. We will C!

Thanks for the kind words.

FWIW LNC is looking like a bottom draw stock to me  Ben Hur may get jealous in the end if this story plays as well as I think it might. Again JMO.


----------



## dogeatdog

Thank you for your input Bas, and Mic.
I must attend next years agm. Always good to get info from the horses mouth.
Very pleased with the sp surge.
Totally agree with MR Z, regarding this one is for the "back draw".
LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

I think the train is leaving the station for LNC.. Up to $2.74from $2.60 overnight. The index chasers will simply have to pay whatever is required to stay in touch.


----------



## Mickel

More good news about the AFC Fuel Cell on the LNC website. The article was in Australia's Mining Monthly November edition.

An extract-
"Linc aims to commercially roll out the hydrogen fuel cell technology in two years
with 100 of the 50kW units set to make up a 50MW module - enough to power about 50,000 homes.
"Once the testing of the Beta unit is completed, that will probably be about mid
next year, we hope by the end of next year we will be sign up for the first megawatt power station unit:' Bond said."

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-572.pdf


----------



## optic

The AFC fuel cell could really be a game changer at some stage in the future IMO.

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. LNC have so many balls in the air at the moment, hopefully none of them drop!


----------



## Smurf1976

Whether or not fuel cells replace conventional gas turbines and/or steam turbines in the long term will come down to cost, flexibility in operation (ramp up and ramp down) and plant availability (how reliable they are).

But in any event, if fuel cells didn't work out then syngas can always be used in a conventional CCGT plant instead.

(CCGT = Combined Cycle Gas Turbine. Effectively a jet engine with the exhaust heat recovered (as steam) to run a steam turbine. It's the most efficient of present electricity generating technologies using gas (usually) or oil (far less common but technically viable). It's not a viable technology for conventional coal-fired plants, which use a boiler and steam turbine only - being able to use coal in a CCGT via syngas would in itself be an improvement.


----------



## Atomic

Is a LNC takeover of AFC on the horizon ?
Would it be a wise move in regards to securing the rights to the fuel cell technology ?


----------



## Atomic

So where else too from here on in , 
Will we see a supply chain of fuel ststions throughout USA Canada with direct to the consumer poduct ? So premium disel for Jet FUEL only, cuts out a huge supply potenial 
By adding a service chain (petrol stations) this will cut out the middle man and the true refining margin will be realised. 

So far this company has'nt stopped surprising me with their achievments and insight. 

This is the greener fuel for the next ?


----------



## Mickel

Atomic said:


> So where else too from here on in ,
> Will we see a supply chain of fuel ststions throughout USA Canada with direct to the consumer poduct ? So premium disel for Jet FUEL only, cuts out a huge supply potenial
> By adding a service chain (petrol stations) this will cut out the middle man and the true refining margin will be realised.
> 
> So far this company has'nt stopped surprising me with their achievments and insight.
> 
> This is the greener fuel for the next ?




LNC has a MOU with BP for diesel fuel (14,000 bpd from memory) signed over 2 years ago. LNC has also stated this year that they could take in a partner in the first GTL plant who would add more than just finance- such as distribution to assist in derisking the project.

 I don't think LNC would spend money or time on distribution as it's not as profitable as their other activities. Don't forget the diesel that comes from the GTL plant is ready to go directly into vehicles, so they are selling the finished product (ie it includes the refining margin).

I agree with Mr Z that this is a "bottom drawer" stock and could be bigger than Ben Hur. There will be plenty of news flowing next year about coal tenement sales,gas production, EOR, power generation, AFC Fuel Cells, Oil discoveries, finding extra coal on new and existing leases and various processes regarding GTL (building the modules, siting the plant and beginning construction of same).

We just need more patience and hope it all unfolds without any major hiccups.
Long term LNC holder.


----------



## Atomic

So would there be any value in a takeover of AFC 

just tryin to put a spin on where LNC is heading. As they seem to be going in many different ways lately!!! 

I am a believer of this co , and i am really just trying to get a longer term valuation


----------



## Mr Z

I think they are a smart crew that will build a larger scale diversified new age energy company. They seem to have the smarts and they are not chasing "green fluffy rainbows" just practical hardcore solutions. That is where I think they are heading.... just my *SUBJECTIVE* take on the action so far but I'm willing to back them at the moment. No stupid stuff going on as far as I am concerned ---> icing on the cake is that the staff seem to be putting their money where their mouth is, I like that.

Anyway... that is where I think they are heading.


----------



## J&M

TOWARDS COMMERCIALISATION
LEA #1 Leads The Way
Alaska is Linc Energy’s land of opportunity. Since July, Linc Energy has snapped up a total of 122,000 acres of traditional oil and gas leases in the Cook Inlet Basin in a strategic move to potentially generate cash flow from natural gas opportunities and establish a reputable operating presence in the coal-rich state for potential future UCG activities.

The Linc Energy (Alaska) Inc. team has now spudded its first gas exploration well LEA #1 to target and assess the natural gas potential of the site. The drilling has also intersected regional coal measures.

“The drilling of LEA #1 in such a short timeframe since we first acquired these leases is an indication of how committed Linc Energy is to creating early cash flow opportunities for its shareholders,” said Chief Executive Officer Peter Bond.

“Natural gas is a much needed commodity in the state of Alaska. With oil and gas pipelines, platforms and facilities already in place within the region, transportation and export become near certainties,” said Bond.

LEA #1 was drilled to a depth of 6, 323 feet (or approximately 1.9 kilometres) into the regional basement volcanic rocks and encountered a number of gas bearing horizons and significant coal seams.

“Not only have we spudded a potential gas opportunity, we’ve intersected regional coal measures, and I look forward to updating shareholders on these results as soon as they become available.” he said.


----------



## dogeatdog

Nice little surge today, up over 3%.
Last time the sp was at the current level, was November 6th 2008 
LNC holder

Can anyone recommend a dedicated Aussie stocks, tip sheet provider please.


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/21473/1291352/TR_IL17_WEB READY ARTWORK.pdf

Linc Energy will construct and
commission Gasifier 6 on its 165,000-
plus acres of coal tenements in
Wyoming.

PB
My aim is to commence EOR by late 2011
with the goal to produce 3,000 barrels of
oil per day. Soon afterwards, our aim is
that this oil production will increase to
10,000 barrels per day, with the ultimate
goal being the production of over 36,000
barrels per day within 36 months of the
extraction of the first barrel of oil.
What that means in terms of dollars
and cents is that Linc Energy is aiming
to produce $100 million in revenue
quickly, in fact by the fourth quarter
of 2011. We intend to move quickly to
over $250 million in revenue in 2012.
Once Linc Energy breaks over 36,000
barrels of oil per day, Linc Energy will be
in a position to earn over a billion dollars a
year, with an estimated EBITDA1 (profit) of
over $400 million. In addition, we will have
a series of EOR projects that will continue
for years to come, with a new EOR project
added to our execution list at least every
quarter, year upon year. This brings me to
Linc Energy’s new motto, which is simply
‘Towards One Billion’.

Linc Energy has three unique value steps
in its growth model:
1. Resource sales: Selling assets (similar
to the coal tenements sold to Adani)
provides Linc Energy with a shortterm,
self-funding growth model. The
next obvious asset for sale is ‘Teresa’,
on which I expect strong progress in
the first quarter of next year. I can now
also inform you of a third sizable coal
asset in Queensland, adding to the
string of resource opportunities we
own. This asset will also go up for sale
by the end of 2011.
2. UCG to EOR: The oil recovered using
CO2 from UCG for the oil recovery
process is a very strong first step in
the commercial model that will be
part of Linc Energy’s growth platform
for many years ahead. This is by far
the fastest, most profitable way to
commercialise UCG for Linc Energy.
3. GTL: The GTL component of the
business model will have a generational
role to play in the energy sector.
Linc Energy will continue to develop
this via its multi-stage 5,000 barrel per
day modular GTL platform.
The Linc Energy business plan is


----------



## Mickel

Well done Jonathan in sourcing the latest Investor Linc.

It is on their website with this link-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/investor_linc/investor-linc-issue-17.pdf

 Certainly, there are exciting times ahead in the next 12 months. I think the American investors will be very excited when they read this latest information.
So I consider the full text of Peter's message should be posted here-

"Welcome once again to InvestorLinc. I can’t believe Christmas is already here!

I guess time really does fly when you’re having fun!

This year has seen a number of highlights for Linc Energy, including the sale 

of our Galilee coal asset, the refocus of our company to an even more 

dynamic and progressive business strategy, and the upward recovery of our 

share price. It is at about this time of year you start to reflect on just what 

has been achieved over the past 12 months. Here’s the list I came up with:

1. The purchase of oil and gas leases in Alaska.

2. Opening Linc Energy’s offices in Alaska, Denver and Wyoming.

3. Spudding our first Alaskan gas well (LEA #1) in just four months after taking control of the lease.

4. The sale of our Galilee coal asset to Adani Mining Pty Ltd.

5. Payment of the 10 cent special dividend following that sale.

6. Continued expansion of our Linc Energy team.

7. Safe and continuing operation of UCG Gasifier 4.

8. The purchase and use of our coil tubing equipment at the Chinchilla Demonstration Facility. Linc Energy is

    the only company in Australia using coil tubing for UCG.

9. Successful UCG oxygen injection trials, which are also set to continue next year with the purchase of our own

   oxygen facility.

10. Hydrogen fuel cell trials and the acquisition of a 10 per cent stake in AFC Energy.

11. The joint venture with Germany’s GFZ to research the sequestration of CO2 into UCG cavities. Remember it’s

     been proposed that up to 400 times more CO2 can be injected into used UCG cavities compared with the

    currently proposed traditional deep aquifers. Subsequently, UCG cavities could become a carbon ‘sink’ for the

    world’s carbon.

12. The acquisition of another 32 coal leases/tenements in Alaska and

    Australia. This means we now own over 340 coal, oil and gas tenements around the world. The resource

   position we control is larger than the entire state of Oklahoma.

13. And finally, we are set to begin work for UCG Gasifier 5 at the Chinchilla Demonstration Facility,

    while progressing permitting work for our first overseas UCG operation in Wyoming, with another soon

   afterwards in other key strategic locations around the world. 

When you review what we’ve achieved over the past few months, it’s staggering. Much of this achievement was set up by

the hard work we did in the latter part of 2009 and the early part of this year. There is no doubt Linc Energy lost a great

deal of traction due to the financial crisis that affected the globe from late 2008 to late 2009. Now 12 months on, there is

no doubt that Linc Energy is now back. We are driving hard and are seeing traction across all our business units,

and we are starting to gain some very strong momentum.

The next two to three years at Linc Energy are going to be very exciting. We have completed the development phase of the

business and we are now transitioning to being a sizable commercial operation and an international energy player.

Importantly, Linc Energy has added a new key commercial driver to its business model – enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

EOR uses the CO2 by-product from the UCG process by pumping it into depleted oil fields to extract greater volumes of

oil. This is a significant step forward in Linc Energy’s commercial model.

There are hundreds of depleted oil fields in and around where Linc Energy is based in Wyoming and Alaska. Most of these

oil fields have large known oil reserves that will remain stranded unless the oil field can be flooded with CO2. For that,

an abundant amount of CO2 is needed, and Linc Energy has the capacity to produce the cheapest man-made CO2

in the world, right next door to these oil fields. For every tonne of CO2 pumped into an oil field, two to five barrels of oil can

be recovered at an average cost of $30 to $35 per barrel. With an oil commodity price of $80, that’s a $40 to $50 margin

per barrel. Also, the good news is that virtually all the CO2 can be sequestered and trapped in that oil reservoir.

Consider the hundreds of millions of barrels of oil readily available in these depleted oil fields and you start to gain an

appreciation for the potential commercial opportunity at hand. We have already started work on the UCG to EOR process

and have established our own EOR team in our Wyoming office in Casper.

My aim is to commence EOR by late 2011 with the goal to produce 3,000 barrels of oil per day. Soon afterwards, our aim is

that this oil production will increase to 10,000 barrels per day, with the ultimate goal being the production of over 36,000

barrels per day within 36 months of the extraction of the first barrel of oil.

*What that means in terms of dollars and cents is that Linc Energy is aiming to produce $100 million in revenue

quickly, in fact by the fourth quarter of 2011. We intend to move quickly to over $250 million in revenue in 2012.

Once Linc Energy breaks over 36,000 barrels of oil per day, Linc Energy will be in a position to earn over a billion dollars a

year, with an estimated EBITDA1 (profit) of over $400 million. In addition, we will have a series of EOR projects that will 

continue for years to come, with a new EOR project added to our execution list at least every quarter, year upon year. This 

brings me to Linc Energy’s new motto, which is simply ‘Towards One Billion’.

*This motto means that Linc Energy is focused on creating one billion dollars per annum of revenue and booking a

billion barrels of oil reserves. For me, this is the first big step for Linc Energy to establish itself as a commercial energy

player of some size and significance. This is all driven by UCG and will not be lost on the world’s financial markets.

In one move, by developing and linking UCG with EOR, Linc Energy will commercialise and substantiate the

UCG process, whilst significantly growing the value of our coal assets and oil reserves. This is why Linc Energy has been 

acquiring oil and gas assets over the past few months. It is the final piece of Linc Energy’s business model.

Linc Energy will continue to focus on GTL and I’d like to have a firm opportunity and modular design fully costed and 

quoted available for our Board to make a definitive decision by the third quarter in 2011.

Linc Energy’s improvements in the cost of construction of a modular GTL facility will change the industry. Combining UCG 

with GTL will add a generation of opportunity to Linc Energy and I am still committed to unlocking that potential.

Linc Energy has three unique value steps in its growth model:

1. Resource sales: Selling assets (similar to the coal tenements sold to Adani) provides Linc Energy with a shortterm,

self-funding growth model. The next obvious asset for sale is ‘Teresa’, on which I expect strong progress in

the first quarter of next year. I can now also inform you of a third sizable coal asset in Queensland, adding to the

string of resource opportunities we own. This asset will also go up for sale by the end of 2011.

2. UCG to EOR: The oil recovered using CO2 from UCG for the oil recovery process is a very strong first step in

the commercial model that will be part of Linc Energy’s growth platform for many years ahead. This is by far

the fastest, most profitable way to commercialise UCG for Linc Energy.

3. GTL: The GTL component of the business model will have a generational role to play in the energy sector.

Linc Energy will continue to develop this via its multi-stage 5,000 barrel per day modular GTL platform.

The Linc Energy business plan is literally a  25 year high growth model, and one that will morph and expand as the 

company grows in the future. To our shareholders, I simply say welcome to the next era of Linc Energy.

I look forward to updating you all as we start upon this journey of commercialisation; the journey ‘Towards

One Billion’.

From me, and all of the team at Linc Energy, may you have a fantastic Christmas break and enjoy a safe and prosperous New Year.

With best wishes to all,

Peter Bond

CEO and Managing Director"

Hopefully this will trigger a huge demand for LNC shares and send the S/P much higher.
Longterm LNC holder.


----------



## snowking

Mickel said:


> Hopefully this will trigger a huge demand for LNC shares and send the S/P much higher.
> Longterm LNC holder.




 The positivity and guidance surrounding the update should definitely trigger greater demand. The plan says what they want to do and how they are going to do it, which is critical to investor confidence. since yesterday's update there has been an upward move close to 20c.


----------



## Jonathan111

Im a little disappointed that the ucg gen 5 will be at chinchilla instead of going for semi-commercial or commercial production at south aus or overseas, if the gov change, do a flip and allow ucg to operate commercially in QLD, this will be very good for Linc


----------



## Mickel

Jonathan111 said:


> Im a little disappointed that the ucg gen 5 will be at chinchilla instead of going for semi-commercial or commercial production at south aus or overseas, if the gov change, do a flip and allow ucg to operate commercially in QLD, this will be very good for Linc




Jonathan, LNC haven't defined where they will site a Generator in Sth Aust yet as they are still looking for a coal seam where there will be no overburden problems. Also they need to monitor the gas flow and composition ,so the Lab at Chinchilla plays a critical role.
They mentioned a Generator 6 for Wyoming.


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> Hopefully this will trigger a huge demand for LNC shares and send the S/P much higher.
> Longterm LNC holder.




In the ASX announcement on Friday, P Bond advised that 2 Directors had sold some of their shareholdings to satisfy American demand-

"Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) advises that following recent significant interest in Linc Energy stock from North America, Linc Energy Directors, Mr Ken Dark and Mr Craig Ricato, agreed to a private placement of a portion of their individual holdings to North American institutional investors."

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-301.pdf

Let's hope that the demand will continue. Not sure why the directors would agree to this unless they needed some $$$$$ and didn't wish to depress the S/P here.


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> Let's hope that the demand will continue. Not sure why the directors would agree to this unless they needed some $$$$$ and didn't wish to depress the S/P here.




Puzzling isn't it ? If your a director of a 'soon to be' thriving company why would you sell off the company shares from your private super fund ?

My guess is that the yanks wanted some shares quickly and that good relations  dictated  someone on the Board give them up rather than have their partners buy them on the ASX with the masses.

I suggest that there might be some sort of side agreement that would see extra shares reallocated to Ken Dark and Craig Ricato at some future time.

_______________________________________

And the shares are powering along arn't they. Touched $3.00 on Friday and one would guess next week will see them stay over that mark. Green is a lovely colour


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> My guess is that the yanks wanted some shares quickly and that good relations  dictated  someone on the Board give them up rather than have their partners buy them on the ASX with the masses.
> 
> I suggest that there might be some sort of side agreement that would see extra shares reallocated to Ken Dark and Craig Ricato at some future time.
> 
> _______________________________________
> 
> And the shares are powering along arn't they. Touched $3.00 on Friday and one would guess next week will see them stay over that mark. Green is a lovely colour




I think you may be on the money there, Bas. That Bondy publicly praised them for giving up the shares, suggests there will be an accomodation for them in the future.
I was hoping that Santa would bring me LNC at $3.00 minimum for Christmas and I look like getting my wish.

I note that Bondy's audio presentation from the AGM is now on line at-

http://www.lincenergy.com/boardroom_radio.php

One comment he made when advising he wouldn't be driving a car on LNC Diesel from Chinchilla to Perth this year (he will do it early next year with publicity) *was that he was too busy with presentations around the world to push the share price back up above $5.00.* This drew applause as you can hear.


----------



## Mickel

Atomic said:


> So would there be any value in a takeover of AFC
> 
> just tryin to put a spin on where LNC is heading. As they seem to be going in many different ways lately!!!
> 
> I am a believer of this co , and i am really just trying to get a longer term valuation




There would be value in taking over this Company as it is on the cusp of commercialising exciting new technology. Whether you could or couldn't takeover AFC I'm not sure.
I do think it is not on Bondy's agenda. EOR is the main focus.

If you read the latest Investor Linc (mentioned recently) and listen to Bondy's AGM address (refer previous post) you will get a very clear idea where LNC is headed in the next 12 months.

Regarding the valuation, Bondy mentions LNC as a "$3 Billion Company" in the latter part of his address. That is roughly $6 per share which I think is achiveable within 12 months. Longer than that, the sky is the limit if his plans are achieved. He is talking about a new EOR project every quarter, once they have established a few. Then you have the GTL and power.

Massive very profitable (30-40%) revenue streams.

Pick a number-  5 yrs $25?  7 yrs $50? 10yrs ?????
Remember the S/P was under $1 in late June 2010


----------



## topsprog

I note that PB has recently talked about pumping raw syngas into old wells for EOR. Has anyone checked that it is possible to pump CO and particularly Hydrogen into the oil without adverse effects on the oil!. Is it possible to get the Syngas back out of the wells later and reuse it for power generation? That would be interesting - pump Syngas underground - bring up the oil - bring up the Syngas and burn it for electricity or convert to diesel, then pump the resulting C02 back down again.


----------



## kaisersosa

Long time reader, first time poster.
A year ago I took the plunge and dived head first into the Share Market.  Playing it safe as one does, my portfolio was loaded with quality blue chips, however the gambler in me wasn't going to let me get away without adding a speculative share.  A short piece in the financial review sold me on the merits of a new energy source and Linc was added to the fold.  
I stumbled on this forum and have perused it almost daily.  Whenever my confidence was failing me I could read the quality posts about the future of Linc, which was most helpful.  Thanks to the likes of Basilo, dogeatdog, Jonathan111 and Mickel for your wise insights and obvious knowledge of the company.  
It appears that exciting times are indeed on the horizon for Linc and I for one am more than happy that it is part of my portfolio.  
My one question would be, has the boat sailed yet, or is the current price still cheap enough to add to holdings.  I ask this as a still inexperienced investor (apology if asking for trading advice is frowned upon).


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

No advice is allowed to be given to members of this forum as noone is registered legally as a financial adviser (except the few who actually are, but that's their day job, why they'd bother to do it in their spare time as well would be beyond me).

Anyway imo it's not too late to load up on a few more LNC (purely opinion of course, go to blog and read my "legal stuff" tab if you want the full spiel). LNC is very much a stock for the future, their technology hasn't really been applied yet (once it has been, the margins on this stuff will be brilliant), and they haven't really gotten that established revenue/cashflow wise, beyond the coal sale. 

However the company is in the process of changing that, and imo that's what will cause the rerating, there are almost limitless projects in which LNC can participate and make money with their rather unique technologies, and I for one would rather be in it at todays prices than out of it (the 'real' question you're asking).


----------



## basilio

I think ParleVou overviewed LNC potentials very succinctly. It's also worth pointing out

1) LNC has around $400m in the bank with probably another $500m due from the next coal sale in 3-6 months. It won't be going broke.

2) Their leases and ownership of underground coal prospects will be worth many, many billions of dollars if/when they start  turning underground coal into diesel or CO2 free power stations

3) The EOR operation (Enhanced Oil Recovery) where they simply turn the  underground coal into gas and then force this into current oil fields to produce more oil seems likely to be an instant early winner. This hasn't been factored into the equation yet.

4) The direct and indirect investment in AFC (Alkaline Fuel Cell) is another blue sky opportunity. If AFC get going then LNCs 10% stake will be very valuable. And of course if the fuel cell technology proves effective LNC has the exclusive rights, technology and resources to exploit it around Australia and around the world.

So is it still undervalued ?  Just maybe a little.... IMO

And good luck with the rest of your portfolio


----------



## mr. jeff

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
I know I'm not exactly the expert on Linc and I must say that coverage here has been excellent and informed and balanced, but there is just so much exuberance that I thought I might play the devils advocate.

How much exuberance is priced into Linc ? They have SO much new tech promise and real company beating prospects (backed up by real assets I know) that they are quite possibly going to have misfires along the way, potentially major.
 I think it is worth asking the question in regards to how much impact a major new unseen hurdle  will have on this stock's fantastic ascent. There are very few stocks which run this well, and seemingly from strength to strength. It is great, and I hold Linc and have certainly always felt that management just seem to have the Midas touch this year, but when some jitters come, it could correct fairly painfully. LNC have good underpinning, but with the gains people have on their books, they may be quite happy to then sit aside and watch and wait for a re-entry signal.

I only bought in before the coal asset sale so have not been through the ringer like long term holders probably have and perhaps this is why it seems a little too good, but I just wanted to bring this to the table for a quick reflection.

perhaps this is the way a new Exxon is born.

Before anyone gets defensive, please understand that I am as enthusiastic about the future of this stock as anyone, but to trade effectively you must always remain detached from the excitement and pessimism that can pervade when you look at the percentage gain column every day and feel that surge of smugness.


----------



## awg

Having held and traded LNC for a few years, the impetus for a massive re-rating will be a steady process-driven revenue stream imo.

Should any of their technologies yield a major breakthrough, then the big players that dont invest in companies that dont make a profit will want in.

Blue sky will be the limit if they can make it really work.


----------



## basilio

> Having held and traded LNC for a few years, the impetus for a massive re-rating will be a steady process-driven revenue stream imo.
> 
> Should any of their technologies yield a major breakthrough, then the big players that dont invest in companies that dont make a profit will want in.
> 
> Blue sky will be the limit if they can make it really work.




Sums up the whole deal. And lets remember that at the very worst *LNC has already sold one coal asset with around $2b residual value *and a couple of other coal deposits that are still appreciating in value and worth at least $600m.


----------



## dogeatdog

mr. jeff said:


> PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
> I know I'm not exactly the expert on Linc and I must say that coverage here has been excellent and informed and balanced, but there is just so much exuberance that I thought I might play the devils advocate.
> 
> How much exuberance is priced into Linc ? They have SO much new tech promise and real company beating prospects (backed up by real assets I know) that they are quite possibly going to have misfires along the way, potentially major.
> I think it is worth asking the question in regards to how much impact a major new unseen hurdle  will have on this stock's fantastic ascent. There are very few stocks which run this well, and seemingly from strength to strength. It is great, and I hold Linc and have certainly always felt that management just seem to have the Midas touch this year, but when some jitters come, it could correct fairly painfully. LNC have good underpinning, but with the gains people have on their books, they may be quite happy to then sit aside and watch and wait for a re-entry signal.
> 
> I only bought in before the coal asset sale so have not been through the ringer like long term holders probably have and perhaps this is why it seems a little too good, but I just wanted to bring this to the table for a quick reflection.
> 
> perhaps this is the way a new Exxon is born.
> 
> Before anyone gets defensive, please understand that I am as enthusiastic about the future of this stock as anyone, but to trade effectively you must always remain detached from the excitement and pessimism that can pervade when you look at the percentage gain column every day and feel that surge of smugness.




Very good point MR Jeff.
So easy to get carried away, especially with Lincs  meteoric sp rise since the Adani deal.
Like you "Kaisersosa" I'm new to investing my own cash, and only got into Linc, and the general investing gig back in June, pushed by a good friend who has been a long term investor in Linc.
Since June, I've followed this thread, and gained valuable insight from those previously mentioned contributers. 
MR Z especially seems to have his finger on the correct pulse.
MR Peter Bond inspires confidence, which can be over done at times, as former failed coal sale tenements have proved. 
However, like so many others, this company is going places, and worth holding, or adding shares on dips.
$5 a share minimum, soon, or as us cricket loving poms like to say, "OR I'll eat my hat". AIMHO


----------



## Jonathan111

Thanks Kaisersosa,

IMO I would be very unhappy to sell out of Linc now, i think its potential income will be huge, ucg will be cheap to produce.. 

IMO it looks unlikely to head back below $2, the first coal sale is done, lots of balls rolling now, hopefully there is less stock on the market with long term holders (institutional investors like the North Americans) buying up. Although there has been alot of short selling happening while the price kept rising and rising... The shorters must have been burnt hard or are still holding with huge loss potential..

EOR seems big enough on its own to take Linc higher.. I am eagerly awaiting the announcement of the EOR sites and its tests and start up.. Along with the JV/s.

Does anyone know if there are any old oil fields in the 122000 Alaskan acres? or is PB buying? I remember there was a seller a couple of months ago looking to offload some old oil fields in the area..


With the first ann of the coal sale being a dud, I think PB was mislead by the potential buyer. Now, i think he is quite cautious and awaits due diligence/FIRB approval, and may have already recieved  favourable offers for the current sale.


Imo LNC has the potential to go into double digit $, even high double digits.. The amount of growth potential is huge.. UCG, GTL, EOR, AFC, CO2 sequestration, power generation, tenament sales,  ...


----------



## Kangarude

As PB said at the AGM, there are hundreds of depleted oil fields in Alaska. The one he mentioned has 500M barrels that can't be recovered without EOR . . . and he said he might not get all of it, but by God he'll give it a try. At a $50 profit margin per barrel, there's $25B in the ground for us . . . in the one depleted and otherwise worthless oilfield. If EOR alone will be producing 100,000 barrels per day within 5 years, then that's a profit of around 
$1.8B . . . justifies a sp of $20 from EOR alone.  

He also made it clear that the Teresa coal sale will lead to another dividend . . . another 10c early in the new financial year probably. I'm sure he wants a divvy every year.

I'd like a little more retrace in the sp before Peter does his publicity tour from Brisbane to Perth in the Lincmobile in early January . . . coz you just can't have enough shares in this company. :


----------



## teabagger

After the close today, 4.10pm there were approx 200,000 share traded at 2c below the 4.00pm $2.88 close price. Making the new close price $2.86 As far as I could tell the day was finished at 4.00pm

 'Scuse my ignorance, but what is that about?

Thanks


----------



## basilio

Bondie put out an update on the  Galilee  coal sale today. It looks as if Adani is in full flight and keen to start knocking up the planned 50-60m tons of coal sales a year from 2014 onwards.

Obviously Peter wants to make sure the market remembers (and factors in) the fact  that LNC will collect at least $100 m net a year (indexed to CPI)  from that project. 



> *It is self-evident that the royalty agreement Linc Energy has with Adani becomes increasingly more valuable the greater the progress Adani attains, continuing until production of the first tonne of coal *from the Carmichael coal mine is delivered in 2014. Mr Peter Bond, Chief Executive Officer said, “With confirmation recently that the Adani Group plans to commence production by 2014 and produce up to 60 million tonnes of coal per annum, I’d like to wish Mr Adani and the Adani Group all the success for the future with the Carmichael Coal tenement.




http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-303.pdf

*That works out at a minimum of 20c a share net earnings.*

 ________________________________________________-



> After the close today, 4.10pm there were approx 200,000 share traded at 2c below the 4.00pm $2.88 close price. Making the new close price $2.86 As far as I could tell the day was finished at 4.00pm
> 
> 'Scuse my ignorance, but what is that about?



 Teabagger

From 4.00 to 4.15 there is a "mini " share auction.  Buyers establish a price they want to buy at while sellers put their sell price. This is the same as the pre open practice which establishes the initial opening price of the share.  

At the cut off time  the SP is established by finding the point at which the lowest sellers meet the highest buyers. In todays case there were obviously a number of sellers who wanted to get out of LNC at 2c less than the 4pm price and therefore got their wish.


----------



## teabagger

Thanks Basilio.

I probably should have asked that question in the general begginer class forum as it would apply to all stocks instesd of taking up Linc forum space!


----------



## basilio

Well  LNC is not holding up that well. Closed at $2.74 for the second day running with quite sharp drops in the final 15 minutes of trade. Obviously another buying opportunity....

One thing that hasn't surfaced yet and perhaps is a reason for the pullback is news on the Alaskan drill. I think we expected there would be a decent gas find that would represent an immediate income stream. Not  a peep so far and it has been a fair time. Anyone have knowledge ?

Cheers


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Well  LNC is not holding up that well. Closed at $2.74 for the second day running with quite sharp drops in the final 15 minutes of trade. Obviously another buying opportunity....
> 
> One thing that hasn't surfaced yet and perhaps is a reason for the pullback is news on the Alaskan drill. I think we expected there would be a decent gas find that would represent an immediate income stream. Not  a peep so far and it has been a fair time. Anyone have knowledge ?
> 
> Cheers




Hey Bas, unable to offer much of an insight, but PB did mention it wasn't likely "to be a gusher".
Wondering if the recent sp decline, due to institutional guys closing positions before the holidays, as well as profit takers???
I would worry about buying in now. Negative news from Alaska would certainly cause a further drop. Tough call! IMHO

Long term share holder


----------



## basilio

Chincilla along with almost the rest of Queensland (it seems) is underwater. I wonder what the situation is with the  LNC CTG  operation centre and drills?  I think we should know because it would have a very material impact on progress.


----------



## tehnoob

basilio said:


> Chincilla along with almost the rest of Queensland (it seems) is underwater. I wonder what the situation is with the  LNC CTG  operation centre and drills?  I think we should know because it would have a very material impact on progress.




I'm told the Chinchilla operation is not right at the actual town of Chinchilla which is very close to the Condamine river. I'm not entirely sure exactly where it IS but I took todays' sell-off as a chance to pick up some more at 2.56. 

I'm of the belief that any interruption to LNCs operations will be tempoary and I'm holding for the long term so not too worried.


----------



## Mickel

Good to see a reversal today from the downward trend of the last week. 

The LNC Chinchilla site is some distance from the township (8+km) although less "as the crow flies". From memory of my visit in Nov 08 the GTL plant and the Lab which was adjacent, appeared to be on raised ground- it may have been only 4 to 8 feet- from the surrounding ground.The latest is that the river has peaked (for the moment) at Chinchilla, so, if the site isn't flooded now, it won't in the short term.

I've also just noticed an updated Analyst Report on AFC Energy by Allenby Capital.

They value AFC at GBP 2.20.

"Valuation incorporating SCG revenues
Due to the outstanding technological and commercial progress being made by AFC in potential mainstream power generation markets, valuation by DCF (discounted cash flow) can result in astronomical fair values. To keep forecasts, and hence expectations, within the bounds of market acceptability, a set of sweeping conservative assumptions have been made; both within markets that do contribute to the valuation, and as to which markets are included in the valuation at all. Adding heavily discounted potential SCG cash flow into our previous model, and pushing the chlor-alkai and UCG roll-outs back by 1 and 2 years respectively results in a NPV for AFC of £381m and a fair value share price of £2.20. The full rationale behind this valuation is laid out in this section."

Here is the link on LNC website- 
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Related_Reports-578.pdf

Very interesting for both AFC and LNC. Check out Exhibit 1 on page 9.


----------



## Jonathan111

Mickel said:


> Good to see a reversal today from the downward trend of the last week.
> 
> The LNC Chinchilla site is some distance from the township (8+km) although less "as the crow flies". From memory of my visit in Nov 08 the GTL plant and the Lab which was adjacent, appeared to be on raised ground- it may have been only 4 to 8 feet- from the surrounding ground.The latest is that the river has peaked (for the moment) at Chinchilla, so, if the site isn't flooded now, it won't in the short term.




it looks like only parts of the town were flooded..

A general view of the town of Chinchilla affected by floods in Queensland, Australia









http://www.allvoices.com/contribute...la-affected-by-floods-in-queensland-australia

I emailed Linc mid last week asking about the flood but have not recieved a reply yet.


----------



## Slipperz

Jonathan111 said:


> it looks like only parts of the town were flooded..
> 
> A general view of the town of Chinchilla affected by floods in Queensland, Australia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.allvoices.com/contribute...la-affected-by-floods-in-queensland-australia
> 
> I emailed Linc mid last week asking about the flood but have not recieved a reply yet.




Looking at the price action today I can only assume Linc's operations are high and dry?


----------



## Jonathan111

Slipperz said:


> Looking at the price action today I can only assume Linc's operations are high and dry?




Yes suprisingly strong run, currently up 21c, 7.9%, $2.86


----------



## Slipperz

Jonathan111 said:


> Yes suprisingly strong run, currently up 21c, 7.9%, $2.86




Shame that. I was thinking perhaps a bit of water on the front lawn of the Bondplex might have presented an opportunistic investor with a buying opportunity. :


----------



## Atomic

Slipperz said:


> Shame that. I was thinking perhaps a bit of water on the front lawn of the Bondplex might have presented an opportunistic investor with a buying opportunity. :



The back yard got a bit wet, but the outlook over the seas is amazing!!!!!!!!!


----------



## dogeatdog

Positive close today for the LNC sp 

Sad to see the devastation in Queensland, and my sympathy goes out to all the folks living in the effected area.

Luckily with the majority of Lincs planned future income coming from overseas, (UCG, GTL, EOR, AFC, CO2 sequestration, power generation) etc, the flooding should have little impact on the sp. IMO

I'm keen to find out the results from the Alaskan drilling program. Can't be long now?


----------



## Atomic

dogeatdog said:


> Positive close today for the LNC sp
> 
> Sad to see the devastation in Queensland, and my sympathy goes out to all the folks living in the effected area.
> 
> Luckily with the majority of Lincs planned future income coming from overseas, (UCG, GTL, EOR, AFC, CO2 sequestration, power generation) etc, the flooding should have little impact on the sp. IMO
> 
> I'm keen to find out the results from the Alaskan drilling program. Can't be long now?




Totally agree there Dogeatdog. 

PB has i think diversified the company in some specialised technologies/areas which will all combine / convert very soon to  $$$$$$$$$


----------



## dogeatdog

Just had a listen to the CFO at Linc. http://www.lincenergy.com/boardroom_radio.php

Not as an inspirational speaker as PB, but the content of his speech leaves one feeling confident for the near, and long term future as a share holder.


----------



## dogeatdog

Non event day for the Linc sp.
The article below would suggest further confidence in the UCG process, which may help Linc's cause. IMHO

Cougar Energy completes capital raising
Published 2:02 PM, 10 Jan 2011

The embattled energy company at the centre of a water contamination scare in Queensland has successfully raised much-needed funds for working capital and fresh investment.

Cougar Energy Ltd said it had raised $1 million from institutions and sophisticated investors by selling about 27 million new shares in the company for 3.7 cents each.

"The funds raised will be used for working capital and to advance the company's UCG (underground coal gasification) projects in Australia and overseas," Cougar said.

Because the placement will be progressed under the 15 per cent placement capacity of the company, shareholder approval is not required for the issue.

Cougar shares jumped on news of the capital injection, rising to 4.9 cents before falling a little to trade at 4.8 cents at 1253 AEDT, up 14.3 per cent.

Cougar made headlines in July 2010 after its trial UCG project near Kingaroy in Queensland was forced to close after company tests found traces of the carcinogen benzene and the toxic chemical toluene in bores at the site.

The move prompted the company to warn it was uncertain whether it could continue as a going concern.

In September, Cougar said its working capital requirements for the following 12 months exceeded its cash position.

The UCG site remains closed, although the Queensland government is due to respond on January 17 to fresh environmental reports from Cougar.


----------



## Atomic

news today of lnc director buying 500K of shares at/on the 31/12/10.

I think he used personel money on market buy , correct me if wrong pls.
always a good sign when directors r buying in.

any more thoughts about lnc's future anyone


----------



## Jonathan111

Not out of the woods yet..

Chinchilla people ordered to higher ground

As Queensland's flood emergency continues, residents in low-lying areas of the western Darling Downs town of Chinchilla have been told to evacuate.

"People in low lying flood-prone areas at Chinchilla should immediately evacuate to higher ground," a statement issued by Queensland police on Monday evening said.

"This is due to the volume of water in local waterways."

Large parts of the town, which services agriculture and mining industries, were flooded on December 27.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8194640/chinchilla-people-ordered-to-higher-ground

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/melon-festival-still-a-smash-20110107-19ith.html


----------



## ColB

Atomic said:


> news today of lnc director buying 500K of shares at/on the 31/12/10.
> 
> I think he used personel money on market buy , correct me if wrong pls.
> always a good sign when directors r buying in.
> 
> any more thoughts about lnc's future anyone




Let's hope the director has some knowledge of some nice drill results from Alaska

Either way Atomic I believe it is going to either break up or down tomorrow.

There was an interesting cross trade after market of 5.5 million shares!!!  I'd be interested in the significance of that if anyone could shed any further light.

More flood warnings for Chinchilla this evening.  In spite of Marney Carroll's letter to Jonathon let's hope the LNC Chinchilla site is not threatened by any further flooding


----------



## dogeatdog

Either way Atomic I believe it is going to either break up or down tomorrow.

There was an interesting cross trade after market of 5.5 million shares!!!  I'd be interested in the significance of that if anyone could shed any further light.


The "cross trade" after closing for 5.5 million shares @ AS2.77 will certainly increase the near term volume. IMO
Fingers crossed for a push north :dunno
Current LNC holder.


----------



## Atomic

ColB said:


> Let's hope the director has some knowledge of some nice drill results from Alaska
> 
> Either way Atomic I believe it is going to either break up or down tomorrow.
> 
> There was an interesting cross trade after market of 5.5 million shares!!!  I'd be interested in the significance of that if anyone could shed any further light.
> 
> More flood warnings for Chinchilla this evening.  In spite of Marney Carroll's letter to Jonathon let's hope the LNC Chinchilla site is not threatened by any further flooding




Yes Colb, a break either way is possible but im looking for a healthy upturn on those alaskan drill results. Hey PB wheres my next dividend check.
Lately with any director buying we have seen a price spike so will be interesting for next coupla days


----------



## Jonathan111

Some serious times in QLD... Many missing and dead..

Well done to Linc for pitching in, with employees helping out and the 50k donation.

A tragic situation... Hopefully that was the peak of the water..


ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
11 January 2011
LINC ENERGY ESCAPES QUEENSLAND FLOOD DAMAGE

.....


“....through the actions of these teams we have managed to operate gasifier 4, the wastewater treatment plant and the GTL facility without incident and these crew members have my sincere thanks for an excellent job under extremely adverse circumstances.”
“The water across site has now subsided and the teams have been busily pumping water from low lying areas and repairing roadways to create safe access around the site. The outlying areas are still water logged.”
“Linc Energy has been offering those members of its workforce who can’t get to work, to volunteer to help the local Chinchilla Community in the clean-up. In addition, Linc Energy has donated $50,000 to the flood appeal to assist those affected by what is the worst flooding in decades, with Linc Energy’s staff taking up the challenge to donate individually as well.”

....


----------



## Mickel

Jonathon, I think the first part of today's ASX Announcement is more pertinant-

LINC ENERGY ESCAPES QUEENSLAND FLOOD DAMAGE
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) advises that despite recent widespread flooding across Queensland, including the lower lying areas of Chinchilla (Queensland), Linc Energy and its staff in Chinchilla have managed to escape flood damage to the site and staff homes.
The Chief Executive Officer, Mr Peter Bond, said that despite what has been some of the worst flooding the district had seen in many decades, Linc Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas to Liquids (GTL) demonstration facility also managed to escape serious flood damage. *Much of this was due to Linc Energy constructing its major equipment upon a built-up pad of roadbase, which lifted the majority of Linc Energy’s Chinchilla operations up over 900mm (3 feet) above the low lying grasslands.*
“Due to road closures initiated on 23 December following flooding in the area, we implemented manning the site with minimum staffing levels. As such, we have been running skeleton crews with a maximum of six personnel on site across two shifts,” Mr Bond said.
“We have been ferrying crews in and out by helicopter every three or four days along with food and other essential supplies.”
“These skeleton crews have pulled together with a common focus and through their actions we were able to avert any undesirable outcomes for the site during this challenging time.”
“I am proud to say that through the actions of these teams we have managed to operate gasifier 4, the wastewater treatment plant and the GTL facility without incident and these crew members have my sincere thanks for an excellent job under extremely adverse circumstances.”
“The water across site has now subsided and the teams have been busily pumping water from low lying areas and repairing roadways to create safe access around the site. The outlying areas are still water loggd.”


----------



## Mickel

Kangarude said:


> As PB said at the AGM, there are hundreds of depleted oil fields in Alaska. The one he mentioned has 500M barrels that can't be recovered without EOR . . . and he said he might not get all of it, but by God he'll give it a try. At a $50 profit margin per barrel, there's $25B in the ground for us . . . in the one depleted and otherwise worthless oilfield. If EOR alone will be producing 100,000 barrels per day within 5 years, then that's a profit of around
> $1.8B . . . justifies a sp of $20 from EOR alone.
> 
> He also made it clear that the Teresa coal sale will lead to another dividend . . . another 10c early in the new financial year probably. I'm sure he wants a divvy every year.
> 
> I'd like a little more retrace in the sp before Peter does his publicity tour from Brisbane to Perth in the Lincmobile in early January . . . coz you just can't have enough shares in this company. :




Re-reading this thread, one comment in this post doesn't sit easy with me. *A profit of around $1.8B (which is approx $3.60 per share) would justify a S/P of around $50, not $20 IMHO.* In comparison I quote CBA Bank (which I consider is in a mature market) which had an EPS of $3.70 in 2010 and current S/P of around $51.00. LNC is in an emerging industry and could be justified with a higher P/E ratio once it establishes a stable earnings track record. (We're looking at 2015-6).

And this is just from EOR as stated.

Just MHO.


----------



## dogeatdog

Hello Mickel.
Interesting analysis previously. Let's hope it pans out 
You appear to be based in Brisbane? Hopefully you've managed to avoid too much 
upheaval.
The media still paint a grim picture for you guys. 
Any local knowledge regarding the Linc site at Chinchilla, since the recent posting on the LNC web site?
Good luck :bier:


----------



## skc

Mickel said:


> Re-reading this thread, one comment in this post doesn't sit easy with me. *A profit of around $1.8B (which is approx $3.60 per share) would justify a S/P of around $50, not $20 IMHO.* In comparison I quote CBA Bank (which I consider is in a mature market) which had an EPS of $3.70 in 2010 and current S/P of around $51.00. LNC is in an emerging industry and could be justified with a higher P/E ratio once it establishes a stable earnings track record. (We're looking at 2015-6).
> 
> And this is just from EOR as stated.
> 
> Just MHO.




Do you have the slightest idea on how shares are valued? 

The assumption behind PE multiple is that the earning is Perpetual. That is, forever!

A resource is finite. A bank makes money year after year. If you must put a PE on a finite resource it should be less than 1 to take into account of risks with extraction, fluctuation in commodity price etc.


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Hello Mickel.
> Interesting analysis previously. Let's hope it pans out
> You appear to be based in Brisbane? Hopefully you've managed to avoid too much
> upheaval.
> The media still paint a grim picture for you guys.
> Any local knowledge regarding the Linc site at Chinchilla, since the recent posting on the LNC web site?
> Good luck :bier:




Thanks Doggie. I'm high on a hill in the northern suburbs and haven't been affected. However I have some friends on the south side of the river who've had their whole house submerged. It is devastating for many people but the community is rallying to assist.
Over 20,000 have registered to assist with the cleanup this weekend. This doesn't include those helping out friends and/or relatives.

I haven't heard much about Chinchilla this week except that parts of the town went under again after Bondy's statement.

Here is a link to a UTube video showing the force of the water in Toowoomba on Monday 10 Jan. There were 2 deaths in Toowoomba that day. The water continued down the Lockyer Valley where there were more than 10 deaths and more than 20 still missing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYUpkPTcqPY&feature=player_embedded


----------



## Mickel

skc said:


> Do you have the slightest idea on how shares are valued?
> 
> The assumption behind PE multiple is that the earning is Perpetual. That is, forever!
> 
> A resource is finite. A bank makes money year after year. If you must put a PE on a finite resource it should be less than 1 to take into account of risks with extraction, fluctuation in commodity price etc.




I won't argue with you SKC but will make a few points-

1.I was talking about 2015/6 when LNC has established a track record of earnings.

2. From CEO's comments in the latest Investor Linc-
 "There are hundreds of depleted oil fields in and around where Linc Energy is based in Wyoming and Alaska. Most of these oil fields have large known oil reserves that will remain stranded unless the oil field can be flooded with CO2. For that, an abundant amount of CO2  is needed, and Linc Energy has the capacity to produce the cheapest man-made CO2 in the world, right next door to these oil fields. For every tonne of CO2 pumped into an oil field, two to five barrels of oil can be recovered at an average cost of $30 to $35 per barrel. With an oil commodity price of $80, that's a $40 to $50 margin per barrel. Also, the good news is that virtually all the CO2  can be sequestered and trapped in that oil reservoir.

Consider the hundreds of millions of barrels of oil readily available in these depleted oil fields and you start to gain an appreciation for the potential commercial opportunity at hand. We have already started work on the UCG to EOR process and have established our own EOR team in our Wyoming office in Casper.

My aim is to commence EOR by late 2011 with the goal to produce 3,000 barrels of oil per day. Soon afterwards, our aim is that this oil production will increase to 10,000 barrels per day, with the ultimate goal being the production of over 36,000 barrels per day within 36 months of the extraction of the first barrel of oil.

What that means in terms of dollars and cents is that Linc Energy is aiming to produce $100 million in revenue quickly, in fact by the fourth quarter of 2011. We intend to move quickly to over $250 million in revenue in 2012. *Once Linc Energy breaks over 36,000 barrels of oil per day, Linc Energy will be in a position to earn over a billion dollars a year, with an estimated EBITDA (Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) (profit) of over $400 million. In addition, we will have a series of EOR projects that will continue for years to come, with a new EOR project added to our execution list at least every quarter, year upon year*. This brings me to Linc Energy's new motto, which is simply ‘Towards One Billion’.

This motto means that Linc Energy is focused on creating one billion dollars per annum of revenue and booking a billion barrels of oil reserves. For me, this is the first big step for Linc Energy to establish itself as a commercial energy player of some size and significance. This is all driven by UCG and will not be lost on the world’s financial markets. In one move, by developing and linking UCG with EOR, Linc Energy will commercialise and substantiate the UCG process, whilst significantly growing the value of our coal assets and oil reserves. This is why Linc Energy has been acquiring oil and gas assets over the past few months. It is the final piece of Linc Energy’s business model."

3. These are the current P/E ratios of the following resource companies-

BHP   14.15    RIO   11.85  and WPL  20.67

I understand that Woodside was of a similar size to LNC currently about 40 years ago.


----------



## mattryanshares

I wonder why they use co2 injection when water is standard practice? 
I hold these shares and hope something kicks off soon!


----------



## Mickel

mattryanshares said:


> I wonder why they use co2 injection when water is standard practice?
> I hold these shares and hope something kicks off soon!




Matt if you look at slide 15 of Bondy's AGM presentation you will see that he quotes 20,000 bpd extracted at Weyburn Canada since 2001 using CO2 flooding. That may have been the first use of CO2. I recall that he stated at the AGM that CO2 was particularily effective as the molecules of CO2 grab onto the wall of the well in simple terms and force the oil out. He also stated that without EOR oil wells retain between 25% and 40% of their oil.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Presentation-571.pdf


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

I would assume that "standard practice" can only extract so many % of the oil before it saturates. LNC's Co2 flooding presumably is able to extract a higher % of the oil before the rest is still stuck there (until newer tech comes along). So in short, the old ways of doing it isn't always the best.

PVF.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Thanks Doggie. I'm high on a hill in the northern suburbs and haven't been affected. However I have some friends on the south side of the river who've had their whole house submerged. It is devastating for many people but the community is rallying to assist.
> Over 20,000 have registered to assist with the cleanup this weekend. This doesn't include those helping out friends and/or relatives.
> 
> I haven't heard much about Chinchilla this week except that parts of the town went under again after Bondy's statement.
> 
> Here is a link to a UTube video showing the force of the water in Toowoomba on Monday 10 Jan. There were 2 deaths in Toowoomba that day. The water continued down the Lockyer Valley where there were more than 10 deaths and more than 20 still missing.
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYUpkPTcqPY&feature=player_embedded




Glad to hear your personally OK Mickel, and I hope normality returns to your neck of the woods a.s.a.p.
Looking forward to a further, official update from Linc next week.


----------



## dogeatdog

Fantastic to hear the staff have returned to work at the Brisbane office, and that none of the Linc energy people or their families have lost their lives.
It would now seem appropriate to enlighten us share holders, as to the condition of the demo site at Chinchilla.
Rather poor day for the sp


----------



## mattryanshares

I see LNC is down again today. I can find any reason except that the whole market is down? I hold and was thinking of getting some more, does anyone know of any reports out there that i cant find?
Drilling in alaska or the likes or any other reason not to grab some more??

Cheers.


----------



## Atomic

mattryanshares said:


> I see LNC is down again today. I can find any reason except that the whole market is down? I hold and was thinking of getting some more, does anyone know of any reports out there that i cant find?
> Drilling in alaska or the likes or any other reason not to grab some more??
> 
> Cheers.




All silent on the news front mattryanshares, except for the demo plant and staff r AOK at chinchilla.
But just what direction this company takes is well the EOR route for present.
So i am wondering if they can take some coal reserves (maybe keep a coal mine suitable ) , dig the coal sell some and then convert the tailings or lesser quality coal into the syngas / gas to liquids then onto diesel. this could be achieved using their modular plant design on site , or maybe just to offet the mine operating costs.
Another income stream just waitng to happen 

So many options and possibilities not yet even considered.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

With the big cash backing and the promise of more cash from another coal sale, I'd say that LNC is pretty solid atm fundamentals wise. Just gotta be a little patient for more news I think, these guys have the ambition and drive to make things happen so I'd rather them actually working on producing results then making pretty presentations and graphs explaining what they've done thus far (if that makes any sense at all LOL). Any material changes in LNC's financial status will be announced so I'm not worried that anything has been swept under the carpet. So basically no reason not to buy atm, but by the same token no reason to buy in atm. Up to you but it's not really an obvious call at this point.

PVF.


----------



## Mickel

A relative new analyst report on LNC by US firm Madison Williams dated 4 Nov 2010 is now on the LNC website-
http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/LNCGY - MW Initiation Report.pdf

An extract- "Valuation
 Our 12-Month Price Target is $3.50 (upside of approximately 71%); longer term (2 - 4 years) we would not be surprised to see shares in the $5.50+ range. We believe the Linc story is significantly under-valued given its potential cash balance (expected $1 billion by March/April of 2011), underlying resource base (company has 21 million acres in oil/gas/coal leases and tenements around the world) and a huge option value
associated with its technology offerings (UCG, EOR and GTL). For the near-term we are particularly positively disposed towards the company’s EOR strategy that, we believe, could enable the company to realize revenues sooner than expected. 

Our 12-month price target is based on Linc’s existing resource base and offers no credit for its technology franchise, which we would argue is quite conservative. Our near-term and long-term value drivers are illustrated below. We do note that our excitement is restrained by the following:

o On the technology front, while the company has made great strides over the past ten years, large-scale commercialization of projects has yet to materialize. While we expect significant news flow over the next 18 months, the market could remain skeptical until certain key milestones are reached.

o On the resource front, while management has demonstrated that it is adept at realizing superior value (Galilee), there are no guarantees that, given volatile global economic conditions, changing environmental regulations and significant long lead time of these projects, comparable values are going to be realized. Also, there are obvious exploratory and development risks in most oil/gas and coal operations.

o We expect Linc Energy to earn positive earnings only in 2013 and beyond. For the near-term, investors looking for positive underlying earnings power will likely be disappointed. Linc is clearly a long-term growth story.

o Linc Energy CEO, Peter Bond (who owns 40.4% of the company), has been the main driver behind the company’s growth story in recent years. This exposes investors to the “key man risk”. As an evolving and rapidly growing energy company (now with a significant global focus) we would like to see more efforts towards strengthening corporate governance, transparency, management succession strategies and an adaptable global organization structure."

And
"Figure 18: Estimated Annual Revenue/EBITDA Contribution from Technology Offerings
 ............................................... Revenue........EBITDA..........Capex
EOR 5000 b/d project.................... $137 million...$72 million......$170 million
UCG-Power 200 MW South Australia..$98 million....$34 milliion......$200 million
UCG-GTL 5000 b/d project..............$155 million...$64 million.......$450 million"

More good news but I hope the S/P is well above $3.50 by Nov 2011.


----------



## dogeatdog

I agree with these points of MW's report.



> o On the technology front, while the company has made great strides over the past ten years, large-scale commercialization of projects has yet to materialize. While we expect significant news flow over the next 18 months, the market could remain skeptical until certain key milestones are reached.
> 
> o On the resource front, while management has demonstrated that it is adept at realizing superior value (Galilee), there are no guarantees that, given volatile global economic conditions, changing environmental regulations and significant long lead time of these projects, comparable values are going to be realized. Also, there are obvious exploratory and development risks in most oil/gas and coal operations.
> 
> o We expect Linc Energy to earn positive earnings only in 2013 and beyond. For the near-term, investors looking for positive underlying earnings power will likely be disappointed. Linc is clearly a long-term growth story.
> 
> o Linc Energy CEO, Peter Bond (who owns 40.4% of the company), has been the main driver behind the company’s growth story in recent years. This exposes investors to the “key man risk”. As an evolving and rapidly growing energy company (now with a significant global focus) we would like to see more efforts towards strengthening corporate governance, transparency, management succession strategies and an adaptable global organization structure."




Not convinced about the remaining info.
Positive news from Lea 1, would blow that sp forecast out of the water, along with other tangibles, such as Lincs direct investment in AFC energy etc.
LNC holder


----------



## dogeatdog

What a hammering today 
Relatively high volume, and no apparent news?
Would be nice to get an update from the PR people at Linc. At least regarding the conditions at the demo site in Chinchilla.
LNC holder.


----------



## ColB

dogeatdog said:


> What a hammering today
> Relatively high volume, and no apparent news?
> Would be nice to get an update from the PR people at Linc. At least regarding the conditions at the demo site in Chinchilla.
> LNC holder.




Gooday Doggy!  Don't think there is any problem at Chinchilla but I think you will find that the sell off has a bit to do with frustrated holders selling out as they have been waiting for something to happen that might have pushed the SP of their investment along.  

Can't help but think that the LEA Alaska drill may be a fizzer as I would have thought that if anything positive was happening over there Bondy would have been chomping at the bit to release it.

As they say no news is good news


----------



## dogeatdog

ColB said:


> Gooday Doggy!  Don't think there is any problem at Chinchilla but I think you will find that the sell off has a bit to do with frustrated holders selling out as they have been waiting for something to happen that might have pushed the SP of their investment along.
> 
> Can't help but think that the LEA Alaska drill may be a fizzer as I would have thought that if anything positive was happening over there Bondy would have been chomping at the bit to release it.
> 
> As they say no news is good news




Hey ColB.
Totally agree regarding LEA 1. 
Historically PB doesn't tend to procrastinate on positive news.
However, I have no idea how long the technical analysis takes.
Pleasant weekend people.


----------



## mattryanshares

Does anyone know when the actual drilling program started in Alaska? Middle winter?? If they only started started in the new year it could take some time yet?


----------



## ColB

mattryanshares said:


> Does anyone know when the actual drilling program started in Alaska? Middle winter?? If they only started started in the new year it could take some time yet?




Started 25 October 2010 with 'first well' matty.  Must be a deep well


----------



## Calliope

ColB said:


> Can't help but think that the LEA Alaska drill may be a fizzer as I would have thought that if anything positive was happening over there Bondy would have been chomping at the bit to release it.




I think Bondy has run out of ideas for ramping up the share price. He has used every trick in the book.


----------



## dogeatdog

Calliope said:


> I think Bondy has run out of ideas for ramping up the share price. He has used every trick in the book.




Why so Cynical may I ask Calliope? 
The A$3Billion coal tenement sale to Adani, with $500 million in cash. Plus a 10c dividend is hardly a trick. However your right, it takes more than "ideas" in this business to "ramp up" the share price.
Hopefully the next tenement sale. and promised divided will encourage a less volatile sp, in the future.
IMO Linc need to greatly improve their PR department.

LNC holder.


----------



## Mickel

Calliope said:


> I think Bondy has run out of ideas for ramping up the share price. He has used every trick in the book.




Perhaps Bondy's schedule has been put back a bit as his house on the river took in water.

"SOME of Brisbane's most expensive real estate on the river at Fig Tree Pocket was hard hit by the floods yesterday.

Linc Energy boss Peter Bond was probably reconsidering the $9.5 million he and wife Louise forked out a couple of years back for George Cheihk's old Rivergum Retreat mansion."

http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/...e-local-disaster/story-fn6ck2gb-1225986538419

The widespread floods have probably also delayed the Linc car driving from Chinchilla to Perth amid a blaze of publicity. It wouldn't surprise if a number of announcements were made during the publicity of this car trip running on Linc diesel.

I think that Bondy will have plenty of genuine news this year that will keep the S/P moving north. I also realise that there may be hiccups that could see the S/P dip.


----------



## Mickel

ColB said:


> Started 25 October 2010 with 'first well' matty.  Must be a deep well




The drilling of LEA #1 was completed on Nov 18-

"18 November 2010
ALASKAN GAS EXPLORATION PROGRAM SHOWS COMMERCIAL GAS POTENTIAL
● Drilling of LEA #1 exploration well in the Cook Inlet Basin completed
● The well was successfully drilled to its target depth of 6,323 feet
● LEA #1 was completed on time and within budget
● A number of gas bearing horizons have been encountered
● A testing program is now underway to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production
● Preparation for an expansion of Linc Energy’s Alaskan natural gas drilling program is underway
Linc Energy (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to report that it has completed the drilling of the LEA #1 exploration well in the Point Mackenzie Block of the Cook Inlet Basin in Alaska, USA.
The well was drilled to a total depth of 6,323 feet into the basement volcanic rocks. LEA #1 encountered a number of gas bearing horizons and 7” casing has been run and cemented. This will allow Linc Energy’s technical teams to plan a testing program to evaluate the potential for commercial gas production from the prospect. A number of significant coal seams were encountered as expected. Coal is recognised as the source rock for all the gas discovered and produced from the prolific Tyonek, Beluga and Sterling formations in the Cook Inlet Basin."

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-293.pdf

Apart from analysing the results from this well they are planning another well on the other side of the bay in Alaska. Refer slides of the AGM address.


----------



## mattryanshares

LINC ENERGY CONTINUES MOU WITH BP AUSTRALIA
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to announce it will continue its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with BP Australia Pty Ltd.
The MoU entitles BP Australia to take at least 70 per cent per day of produced synthetic diesel fuel from Linc Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) facility proposed for South Australia. This is the equivalent of about 14,000 barrels each day.
“I look forward to continuing our strong relationship with one of the world’s most recognised energy companies,” said Bond.
Linc Energy owns and operates the world’s only UCG to GTL facility and has proven the in-situ conversion of solid coal to gas for cleaner synthetic fuel production. The facility is based near Chinchilla in Queensland.
“Linc Energy is leading the way in UCG for cleaner energy products. Our Chinchilla Demonstration Facility places the company in an ideal position to commercialise UCG to fuel the future for generations to come. And with Linc Energy’s push into the USA expanding each quarter, I expect UCG to GTL (fuel) to play a big part in North America’s and Australia’s energy mix in the very near future,” he said.
For more information visit www.lincenergy.com.au or contact our office on +617 3229 0800.


----------



## teabagger

Call me Big Kev and Steve Irwin
Thats one exciting announcement.
To think it's market sensative as well...crikey


----------



## Atomic

teabagger said:


> Call me Big Kev and Steve Irwin
> Thats one exciting announcement.
> To think it's market sensative as well...crikey




well its a start , read the ann and its says bp will take 70% of daily production,
so daily production os approx 20k barrels @ $100 (rounded) = $2million ,
then 2M x 365 days per annum = $730 ,

ruff math but hey , i like em anyway


----------



## dogeatdog

mattryanshares said:


> LINC ENERGY CONTINUES MOU WITH BP AUSTRALIA
> Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to announce it will continue its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with BP Australia Pty Ltd.
> The MoU entitles BP Australia to take at least 70 per cent per day of produced synthetic diesel fuel from Linc Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) facility proposed for South Australia. This is the equivalent of about 14,000 barrels each day.
> “I look forward to continuing our strong relationship with one of the world’s most recognised energy companies,” said Bond.
> Linc Energy owns and operates the world’s only UCG to GTL facility and has proven the in-situ conversion of solid coal to gas for cleaner synthetic fuel production. The facility is based near Chinchilla in Queensland.
> “Linc Energy is leading the way in UCG for cleaner energy products. Our Chinchilla Demonstration Facility places the company in an ideal position to commercialise UCG to fuel the future for generations to come. And with Linc Energy’s push into the USA expanding each quarter, I expect UCG to GTL (fuel) to play a big part in North America’s and Australia’s energy mix in the very near future,” he said.
> For more information visit www.lincenergy.com.au or contact our office on +617 3229 0800.




Nothing new here.
Both companies have nothing to lose with this scenario.
Better news would have been a BP/Linc JV, to get the business moving.
I'm frustrated Linc continue to keep tight lipped, regarding the condition of the Chinchilla site, following the unfortunate floods 

LNC holder.


----------



## teabagger

Atomic said:


> well its a start , read the ann and its says bp will take 70% of daily production,
> so daily production os approx 20k barrels @ $100 (rounded) = $2million ,
> then 2M x 365 days per annum = $730 ,
> 
> ruff math but hey , i like em anyway




Yes it would be a nice start Atomic, but me thinks the left side of the equation( into the forseeable future) makes the right side =..... not much.

Were not frustrated, were not frustrated, were not frustrated.....


----------



## Atomic

teabagger said:


> Yes it would be a nice start Atomic, but me thinks the left side of the equation( into the forseeable future) makes the right side =..... not much.
> 
> Were not frustrated, were not frustrated, were not frustrated.....




teabagger
was meant to read 
$2million x 365days  = $730million , again ruff math.
but that excluding any other revenue streams so, again need to more math on the potenial earnings of linc


----------



## mattryanshares

27 January 2011
LINC ENERGY ACQUIRES MORE COAL IN ALASKA
● Linc Energy acquires 181,414 acres of UCG coal exploration licences in Alaska
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to announce that it has been successful in its tender to the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority for the grant of 181,414 acres of Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) coal exploration licences in Alaska.
Linc Energy has been advised by the Director of the Trust Land Office (on behalf of the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority) that, following a competitive bidding process, Linc Energy has been awarded 100% of the UCG exploration program licence area for which it tendered.


----------



## mattryanshares

Whats happened to LNC today?? Apparently good news yesterday with with new coal licenses in Alaska and in response today the share prices drops 20 cents and sells as low as 2.36???

Whats happened? What did i miss???


----------



## snowking

Most likely to do with the CXY announcement. QLD government has told them they are not accepting the environmental reports submitted by the company for their Kingaroy operations. 

announcement here http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110128/pdf/41wdvwlq2frtq1.pdf


----------



## YELNATS

mattryanshares said:


> Whats happened to LNC today?? Apparently good news yesterday with with new coal licenses in Alaska and in response today the share prices drops 20 cents and sells as low as 2.36???
> 
> Whats happened? What did i miss???




That was yesterday's news and the market didn't react very much to it yesterday. I can only think there must be some other reason for today's negative sentiment. OTOH could be an opportunity to top-up today.


----------



## skc

Probably a decent trade on offer with share price landing in the support zone. If that's broken next level would be ~$1.70-$1.90. If we ever get there the fundamentals will make it a bit of a no-brainer.


----------



## Mickel

YELNATS said:


> That was yesterday's news and the market didn't react very much to it yesterday. I can only think there must be some other reason for today's negative sentiment. OTOH could be an opportunity to top-up today.




This is the link to DERM Media Release today-
http://www.cabinet.qld.gov.au/MMS/StatementDisplaySingle.aspx?id=73436

Part of the Media Release with the reference to LNC highlighted-

"Ms Jones today said that the independent scientific panel report into the Cougar Energy operations at Kingaroy supports the department’s decision to close down the trial at the Kingaroy site.

The report stated that "the Cougar Energy trial not be reignited" and "Cougar Energy did not act sufficiently rapidly to shut down the facility when changes to infrastructure were first observed."

*Ms Jones said the independent Scientific Expert Panel report into Linc Energy’s trial plant near Chinchilla recommended that Linc Energy pilot continue as planned and said the company was able to demonstrate a significant technical capacity.
*
The Minister said DERM had not finalised its investigations into Carbon Energy’s plant at Kogan and an Environmental Protection Order preventing further gasification by Carbon Energy’s UCG plant would remain in place.

"The order was issued in July 2010 following the release of waste water to land at the site," she said.

"While investigations indicate no ongoing environmental harm has occurred, these investigations will continue into the cause of this incident."

Ms Jones said the department is working through all recommendations of the Scientific Expert Panel reports.

The Panel will provide its final advice to Government on the technical viability and environmental sustainability of a large scale UCG industry in Queensland at the end of the trial."


----------



## mattryanshares

Media Release from QLD Government 

We are pleased to advise that an announcement was made today by the Queensland Government specifically referencing the operations of competing UCG companies in Queensland.  We note the very positive comments also contained in the media release regarding Linc Energy confirming the continued operation of our Chinchilla pilot plant in Queensland.   In the Media Release, the Queensland Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability advised that  a recent report by an independent Scientific Expert Panel commissioned by the Government recommended that “[the] Linc Energy pilot continue as planned” and concluded that “[Linc Energy] was able to demonstrate a significant technical capacity”.  [Emphasis added]
We confirm that the Company is not subject to any environmental evaluation notices in relation to its Chinchilla operations and that DERM informed Linc Energy on 16 December 2010 of its decision to accept the Linc Energy submissions in relation to all recent requests for information without any further action.
Please click here to view the full copy of the Media Release issued this morning by the Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, The Hon Kate Jones.
Email: linc@lincenergy.com.au 
Phone : (07) 3229 0800
Fax : (07) 3229 6800


----------



## Atomic

Mickel said:


> This is the link to DERM Media Release today-
> http://www.cabinet.qld.gov.au/MMS/StatementDisplaySingle.aspx?id=73436
> 
> Part of the Media Release with the reference to LNC highlighted-
> 
> "Ms Jones today said that the independent scientific panel report into the Cougar Energy operations at Kingaroy supports the department’s decision to close down the trial at the Kingaroy site.
> 
> The report stated that "the Cougar Energy trial not be reignited" and "Cougar Energy did not act sufficiently rapidly to shut down the facility when changes to infrastructure were first observed."
> 
> *Ms Jones said the independent Scientific Expert Panel report into Linc Energy’s trial plant near Chinchilla recommended that Linc Energy pilot continue as planned and said the company was able to demonstrate a significant technical capacity.
> *
> The Minister said DERM had not finalised its investigations into Carbon Energy’s plant at Kogan and an Environmental Protection Order preventing further gasification by Carbon Energy’s UCG plant would remain in place.
> 
> "The order was issued in July 2010 following the release of waste water to land at the site," she said.
> 
> "While investigations indicate no ongoing environmental harm has occurred, these investigations will continue into the cause of this incident."
> 
> Ms Jones said the department is working through all recommendations of the Scientific Expert Panel reports.
> 
> The Panel will provide its final advice to Government on the technical viability and environmental sustainability of a large scale UCG industry in Queensland at the end of the trial."



So it seems any bad news about the other UCG players is a bullet for llinc as well.
Trying to read between the lines but with no insight !!!
Have i missed something big with lincs' sp ?
Keep reminding myself that linc is global energy producer, not just a driller or digger!!!
It has an operational facility in europe. It is expanding into canada securing its position into the north americas market , an upcoming South Australian operation coming online , is aligning itself with the major players with supply uptake agreements, cutting edge tech which can be rapidly deployed to site (modular plant design). EOR ,EOR is like wringing the ducks neck for another golden egg!!!!!
What have have i missed ,?????


----------



## mattryanshares

I dont get it either? Is Linc associated with Cougar Energy? 
Something is going on be it panic or something else?


----------



## mattryanshares

All resources were down! Fear of the asx crossing the 4800 mark profit taking, lyc was down 9cents as well! I took a flogging! Monday will be a good day????


----------



## YELNATS

mattryanshares said:


> I dont get it either? Is Linc associated with Cougar Energy?
> Something is going on be it panic or something else?




My understanding is that the Qld goverment is monitoring the environmental impacts of three UCG trials in Qld - one by Cougar, one by Linc and the other by Carbon Energy.

Put very simply, current reports by the Qld goverment are very negative about Cougar's project and they have not authorised it to proceed any further, while Carbon Energy's is still subject to their further review. However, they have commented very favourably on and appear very happy so far with Linc's project.

I don't think Cougar has any connection with Linc, and in fact they are competitors in the UCG field. As such, the announcements this week from the Qld government will strenghthen Linc's competitive position in Queensland.

As is often the case however, the market doesn't see things that way and it tends to tar all players with the same brush, so the decline in Linc's share price this week can be seen as an opportunity to make an entry or to top-up at a favourable price.

This is only my view and interpretation, if I'm wrong, please correct me.


----------



## Mickel

YELNATS said:


> My understanding is that the Qld goverment is monitoring the environmental impacts of three UCG trials in Qld - one by Cougar, one by Linc and the other by Carbon Energy.
> 
> Put very simply, current reports by the Qld goverment are very negative about Cougar's project and they have not authorised it to proceed any further, while Carbon Energy's is still subject to their further review. However, they have commented very favourably on and appear very happy so far with Linc's project.
> 
> I don't think Cougar has any connection with Linc, and in fact they are competitors in the UCG field. As such, the announcements this week from the Qld government will strenghthen Linc's competitive position in Queensland.
> 
> As is often the case however, the market doesn't see things that way and it tends to tar all players with the same brush, so the decline in Linc's share price this week can be seen as an opportunity to make an entry or to top-up at a favourable price.
> 
> This is only my view and interpretation, if I'm wrong, please correct me.




I agree wholeheartedly Yelnats. 

The Qld Govt has a bias towards the Coal Seam Gas industry despite the fact that UCG can extract about 20 times as much energy from the same coal seam. This was clearly indicated when the Govt ruled in favour of CSG  on some overlapping  tenament areas. (I think CSG had petroleum leases and UCG had mining leases). 

This was one of the reasons that LNC established other developments in Australia and subsequently around the world. (ie they wouldn't be beholden to one Govt with a bias against UCG).

Two other points-
1. The Cougar MD, Dr Len Walker started Linc Energy around 1996. Some time after Peter Bond came on board, they had a falling out (as I understand) and Walker left and set up Cougar Energy. They have no current relationship apart from each having UCG trials.
2.LNC's technology and practices are far superior (and more costly) than Cougar's. This is particularily so with the wellheads where LNC's are more stable and secure. This, as I understand, was one of the main failings of Cougar.

LNC holder


----------



## Jonathan111

It will be interesting to see how the $2 billion figure is made up, is it cash upfront? or is it really $2b.

Good to see hunger for more coal. The loosers will be more eager to make a deal elsewhere.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFSGE70S00C20110129

GVK Power submits $2 bln bid for Hancock Coal's mine - report
Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:08am GMT  Print | Single Page[-] Text [+] MUMBAI Jan 29 (Reuters) - GVK Power & Infrastructure has submitted a $2 billion preliminary bid for a controlling stake in a coal mine owned by Australia's Hancock Coal, a report in the Economic Times newspaper said on Saturday. 

The Indian firm, which focuses on energy and transportation projects, is among six bidders shortlisted in an auction process conducted by privately held Hancock Coal for the sale of its Kevin Corner mine in Queensland state, the paper quoted three sources close to the development as saying. 

Kevin Corner is estimated to have coal reserves of around 4.3 billion tonnes, according to Hancock Coal's website. 

The mine currently has a capacity to produce 30 million tonnes a year and is likely to be productive for the next 30 years, the paper said. 

GVK is the only Indian company that has been short-listed. The other bidders include Chinese and Japanese power companies, according to one of the sources. 

The auction, which is currently at a preliminary stage, could see an outcome within a month's time, a banker close to the deal was quoted as saying. 

GVK has been scouting for coal mines for the past two years as it plans to secure its fuel supply for the power projects it currently operates but has so far failed to clinch any deal. 

The spokesperson from GVK and an official from Hancock declined to comment on the newspaper report. 

(Reporting by Nandita Bose; Editing by Miral Fahmy) (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)


----------



## dogeatdog

The rapid decline in the Linc sp seems based on no obvious reasons. However the lack of info regarding the condition of Lincs Chinchilla demo plant. No news on the drilling results from Lea 1 in Alaska, is probably frustrating investors, including myself.
It's great the company are buying up the rights in Alaska etc, for the future, but some times it pays to walk before you run. (IMHO)
Linc remain a long way off generating a revenue stream, let alone the company target of 1 billion.
Having said all that, we are only one month into the year.

Fingers crossed that the upheaval going on in Egypt etc, doesn't spread to Saudi or turn into major civil upheaval, for the sake of the global markets, and the citizens within those countries of course.


----------



## Jonathan111

dogeatdog said:


> The rapid decline in the Linc sp seems based on no obvious reasons. However the lack of info regarding the condition of Lincs Chinchilla demo plant.





Hi Dogeatdog,  if you are very concerned about the condition of the plant, you can try emailing Linc with some specific questions, they are pretty informative.

I am interested to see the asx short sell data for the 28th Jan 11, to see if the share price had a helping hand. It must come out on monday..
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


Regards,
Jonathan


----------



## dogeatdog

mattryanshares said:


> I dont get it either? Is Linc associated with Cougar Energy?
> Something is going on be it panic or something else?




Hey Mattry. The only association between Linc and Cougar, maybe Linc taking over Couger for their coal reserves, when their shares hit the dirt on Monday, following Fridays announcement by the environmental agency. (Pure speculation on my part)

As for your "flogging". Hang in there. You'll be rewarded one day. IMHO


----------



## dogeatdog

The attached article gives an interesting insight, into the huge potential for companies involved in the coal mining industry in Alaska.
As an investor in Linc, I'm thinking future tenement sales, if discovered, as well as core business oppotunities.

http://www.adn.com/2010/12/25/1619772/alaska-coal-creates-demand-opposition.html


----------



## mattryanshares

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110131/pdf/01146152.pdf

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110131/pdf/01146242.pdf

SP took a little move in the right direction today when everything else was falling, maybe because of above??


----------



## Jonathan111

Cash at end of quarter 421,666,000

Teresa - Environ Impact Statement to start in 2011, 4 holes planned delayed due to access flooding

Hey Dog eat dog. when asked why LNC does not take over CXY at the  AGM, Peter Bond said that CXY does not have anything Linc wants.


----------



## Atomic

sp had a bit of a comeback today, why ?.
Could it be the sentiment for the industry has turned or is it just a bounce from the teresa drill prog. With the latest sp pullback i grabbed some . but the future is still to arrive for linc and its technology/ies. admit thou the old rear passage was puckered and ready for a total loss of control


----------



## mattryanshares

Yeah i was the same, i jumped back in yesterday at 1.78. Pretty happy with todays movement.


----------



## Jonathan111

mattryanshares said:


> Yeah i was the same, i jumped back in yesterday at 1.78. Pretty happy with todays movement.




1.78? I thought it dropped to lowest 2.29? Is that right? Did i miss the cyclone?


----------



## mattryanshares

Jonathan111 said:


> 1.78? I thought it dropped to lowest 2.29? Is that right? Did i miss the cyclone?




yeah i bought it at 2.43, i bought LYC at 1.78,

Can i blame iphone correction on that???


----------



## Atomic

Ok people goin back a few anns' PB mentioned that the coal sale will be done with a improved value ie- investment in the rediness to prouce coal.

does this mean with drill results , proven jorc reserves . 
and will this be equally reflected in the sp as each stage adds to the improved value?

With proven reserves is this not a garuntee of the sale and comand a slice of the royalties pie . which i like also as an holder of lnc


----------



## Mickel

Here are references to interesting articles-



http://www.cedaily.com.au/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=44630&hlc=2&hlw=

 A report on the Report of the Independent Scientific Panel (ISP) on Underground Coal
Gasification

http://www.dme.qld.gov.au/zone_files/Mines/ucg_policy_february_2009.pdf

The Qld Govt Policy on UCG and the 3 Trial Projects

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/ucg/documents/linc-energy-report.pdf

The ISP Report on LNC.

The bottom line is that LNC performing in an acceptable manner.

From the policy document-
"Each UCG pilot proponent be required to complete and submit a detailed project report (Pilot Project Report) of all activities, impacts, including any impacts on resources outside the boundary of the pilot tenure, and findings associated with the conduct of the proposed UCG pilot projects, with the Pilot Project Report to be given within three (3) months of the notified conclusion of the trial project,* but no later than June 2011,* and the required scope of the report."

and-
"e) A Government report on the potential future of the UCG technology in Queensland, including assessment of the Pilot Project Reports and the potential costs and benefits of UCG for the State and advice on the ways the UCG technology may proceed on an environmentally sustainable basis, including any findings on the interaction between CSG and UCG technologies on the scope of ‘buffer’ areas within the UCG tenure required around the gasification operation
The Government report will be prepared by no earlier than December 2010 and no later than December 2011, with the duration of this period being subject to the availability of Pilot Project Reports, DERM’s analysis of environmental management requirements, advice from the appointed expert panel and other information that may be deemed relevant
f) The findings of the Government report on UCG will be presented to Cabinet in 2011/12 and, should the Government report produce adverse findings on the UCG technology, on-going constraint or even prohibition of UCG activities may be recommended.


----------



## Jonathan111

http://energy-pubs.com.au/linc-energy-in-the-arckaringa-basin

LINC ENERGY IN THE ARCKARINGA BASIN
February 2, 2011 By carol-anne 

...

_Mr Bond said historical charts pointed to a mean recoverable target somewhere in the 200 to 300 million standard barrel range. _

...


----------



## olleydog

Has anyone else heard that linc has acquired all of Rancher energys assets in the powder river basin??? Still looking for some dirt on this story, it does sound pretty good for linc tho. Pretty sure Rancher are big on EOR. Long term linc holder and will be a happy one at that, maybe sooner rather than later....


----------



## dogeatdog

olleydog said:


> Has anyone else heard that linc has acquired all of Rancher energys assets in the powder river basin??? Still looking for some dirt on this story, it does sound pretty good for linc tho. Pretty sure Rancher are big on EOR. Long term linc holder and will be a happy one at that, maybe sooner rather than later....




Hello Olley.
Do you have a link to any information, or is this pure speculation on your part?

LNC holder.


----------



## olleydog

dogeatdog said:


> Hello Olley.
> Do you have a link to any information, or is this pure speculation on your part?
> 
> LNC holder.




http://www.hotstocked.com/8-k/rancher-energy-corp-RNCH-346924.html       From what i can gather rancher energy went broke and had 46mil in assets PB has those assets now and paid next to nothing 16 mil... Still looking for more info. Pretty sure they were producing, could mean cash flow for linc very soon... google rancher energy corp


----------



## mattryanshares

olleydog said:


> http://www.hotstocked.com/8-k/rancher-energy-corp-RNCH-346924.html       From what i can gather rancher energy went broke and had 46mil in assets PB has those assets now and paid next to nothing 16 mil... Still looking for more info. Pretty sure they were producing, could mean cash flow for linc very soon... google rancher energy corp




Mate thats a good find. I googled, bineg the hell out of your first post and could find nothing!


----------



## Brian Acheson

mattryanshares said:


> Mate thats a good find. I googled, bineg the hell out of your first post and could find nothing!




All very interesting re Rancher, they were into EOR. Click on link info is old but gives an idea of what PB has brought.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-rel...es-Recoverable-Oil-Companys-Powder-774608.htm


----------



## dogeatdog

olleydog said:


> http://www.hotstocked.com/8-k/rancher-energy-corp-RNCH-346924.html       From what i can gather rancher energy went broke and had 46mil in assets PB has those assets now and paid next to nothing 16 mil... Still looking for more info. Pretty sure they were producing, could mean cash flow for linc very soon... google rancher energy corp




Great find Olley.
It does indeed, on the surface at least, appear to be a very good deal for Linc.
The financial crisis back in 2008 seemed to be the start of Ranchers problems.
A third party financing deal for US$80+ million, was pulled.
A unit of Exxon were, or are providing the CO2 for the EOR.

Hopefully a step toward Linc's goal of a "Billion dollars in revenue" campaign.


----------



## Mickel

Great finds indeed Olly and Brian !

From "The Debtor-In-Possession Financing has a maturity date of 120 days from the approval of the Court." I presume that LNC will take possession of all Rangers assets when they can't repay the loan in 120 days.
I'm not sure that LNC will have their UCG in Wyoming in production by then. But I am sure that PB will have the whip cracking to start UCG production asap.

These are 4 of Ranger's oil fields in Wyoming- the South Glenrock B Field, the Big Muddy Field, the Cole Creek South Field and the South Glenrock A Field.

Does anyone know how close they are to LNC's coal tenements ?


----------



## Mickel

From page 4 of analyst report dated 4/11/10
"Several important milestones could act as near-term catalysts over the next 18 months. 
The following milestones could act as catalysts for Linc shares.

 *In Carbon Solutions, we expect Linc to announce an acquisition of EOR sites by Q1 2011. The company expects project commencement by Q4 2011.
*
 In Resources, we expect Linc to sell another coal resource by Q1 2011. In addition,
management expects positive exploration/development data points from its operations in Alaska and Arckaringa, Australia.

 In UCG, we expect Gasifier 5 to begin operating in Chinchilla by the end of 2010, while the first Gasifier in PRB should be operational by late 2011.
 In GTL, we expect the company to make progress in its 5000 b/d modular concept with potential supply chain contracts by the second half of 2011.
o Our 12-Month price target is $3.50 (upside of approximately 71%); longer term (2 - 4 years) we would not be surprised to see shares in the $5.50+ range. We believe the Linc story is significantly under-valued given its potential cash balance (expected $1 billion by 2Q of 2011), underlying resource base (company has 21 million acres in oil/gas/coal leases and tenements around the world) and a huge option value associated with its technology offerings (UCG, EOR and GTL). For the near-term we
are particularly positively disposed towards the company’s EOR strategy that, we believe, could enable the company to realize revenues sooner than expected. We would argue that our 12-month price target is quite conservative because it is based on Linc’s existing resource base and offers no credit for its technology franchise."

It looks like the Ranger assets are the first acquisition.

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/LNCGY - MW Initiation Report.pdf


----------



## Jonathan111

Mickel said:


> Great finds indeed Olly and Brian !
> 
> From "The Debtor-In-Possession Financing has a maturity date of 120 days from the approval of the Court." I presume that LNC will take possession of all Rangers assets when they can't repay the loan in 120 days.
> I'm not sure that LNC will have their UCG in Wyoming in production by then. But I am sure that PB will have the whip cracking to start UCG production asap.
> 
> These are 4 of Ranger's oil fields in Wyoming- the South Glenrock B Field, the Big Muddy Field, the Cole Creek South Field and the South Glenrock A Field.
> 
> Does anyone know how close they are to LNC's coal tenements ?




Hi Mickel,

It does looks that way, that this is a loan and the assets are collateral and in 120 days they will not be able to repay the loan so the assets will be taken by Linc.


Regards,
Jonathan


----------



## mattryanshares

Jonathan111 said:


> Hi Mickel,
> 
> It does looks that way, that this is a loan and the assets are collateral and in 120 days they will not be able to repay the loan so the assets will be taken by Linc.
> 
> 
> Regards,
> Jonathan




If this is the case (Im not saying it isnt) you would wonder why Linc hasnt made an announcement?


----------



## ColB

mattryanshares said:


> If this is the case (Im not saying it isnt) you would wonder why Linc hasnt made an announcement?




Matty, Contracts only signed on the 31st January 2011.  PB needs at least a week to have his PR staff compose and fluff up this Rancher media release to restore the recent demise of its SP down to $2.26 from a fairly recent high of $3

Strong chance of ASX release tomorrow re Rancher and a nice move up of 15-20 cents IMO.  LNC should start to gain some traction with what should be some decent announcements coming out in the next 2-3 months.

I Hold 20,000 shares, just dumped 40,000 LNC to buy PEN so LNC are bound to go up


----------



## basilio

> From page 4 of analyst report dated 4/11/10
> "Several important milestones could act as near-term catalysts over the next 18 months.
> The following milestones could act as catalysts for Linc shares.




Hi folks and good to be back. I've had a nice little break.

That was a *very* interesting titbit from Mickel today  - the Madison report dated 4th Nov 2010. (thank you..) I just finished reading it and was very impressed with it's depth and breadth (*except it completely missed the AFC fuel cell project*). It certainly wanted to make me go out and buy more shares.

*And of course lot's of investors did*. In fact in Nov/Dec just after the report was published LINC went into a vertical rise. $2.00 to $3.00 in barely 6 weeks. I checked back over this thread and noted just how delighted we all were with the sudden market discovery of LINC's value and  trying to guess at how the penny had dropped.

*But the Madison report was never mentioned*. Somehow between all of us and any LINC reporting this very positive analysis was overlooked - or perhaps not publicly available ? I'm curious about this situation because in a sense I can now see why LINC jumped so decisively in Nov/Dec and wondering why it was kept quiet. Any information ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> *But the Madison report was never mentioned*. Somehow between all of us and any LINC reporting this very positive analysis was overlooked - or perhaps not publicly available ? I'm curious about this situation because in a sense I can now see why LINC jumped so decisively in Nov/Dec and wondering why it was kept quiet. Any information ?




Bas, I was checking the Analyst Report section of LNC's website every week since early last December and that report was only posted on the LNC website within a few days of when I mentioned it on this thread on 19th Jan (post 1704). I don't know why they withheld it as it is good news.

I had heard that there were more firms starting analyst coverage and I believe there will be more different ones yet to come. I also understand WHEN LNC enters the top 100 ASX stocks more fund managers and brokers will cover it.


----------



## Mickel

Further to my last post, another report by Madison Williams is now on the LNC website-
http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/Madison Williams-Top Picks 2011 - Energy-010711.pdf

it highlights their "Top Picks for 2011" and of course includes LNC. It also has a tech analysis of LNC.

"We expect 2011 to be a transformational year for Linc Energy as the company progresses in its evolution from a small company in Australia to a diversified energy company with a global footprint. This transformation will include a number of exciting near-term catalysts. Linc is currently in discussions to sell its Emerald coal asset,which we believe could fetch approximately A$500mn. In the Powder River Basin, where Linc is implementing its initial Enhanced Oil Recovery operations, the company expects to have permitting finished by the end of Q1 and first gas production by the middle of the year. Linc anticipates first oil production by the end of 2011. On the resource value creation front, the company continues to prove up its sizeable coal and oil/gas asset base, drilling wells in Alaska, Arkaringa, and its Northern leases in Queensland over the course of the year. Finally,we expect Linc to make progress on its 5,000-bpd modular gas-to-liquids concept in 2011, with potential supply chain contracts by the second half of the year."

and-

"A daily chart going back to September 2008 shows prices clearly coming out of a long-term base. Massive volume accumulation in July/August of this year clearly indicates that a bottom has been seen, and subsequently the shares have cleared and found support above an important Fibonacci level, A$2.65 (first green line), which represents a 38.2% retracement of the entire ’08 to ’10 range. While there is a near-term risk of pullback below that level given recent global equity action, strong support lies just below off the November highs, around A$2.55, and investors should buy aggressively any test of that level. Ultimately, prices will continue higher, with momentum taking prices to the 61.8% retracement level (second green line), A$3.70."


----------



## olleydog

Talk of the coal sale in the afr today driving the sp up, go linc...


----------



## mattryanshares

olleydog said:


> Talk of the coal sale in the afr today driving the sp up, go linc...




Wheres the link??


----------



## Brian Acheson

olleydog said:


> Talk of the coal sale in the afr today driving the sp up, go linc...




Hi Olley
Can you explain more about where you read about coal sale. 

Regards Brian


----------



## Brian Acheson

Street talk column in afr is saying that Linc is four of five weeks from signing a deal to sell its Teresa coal mine to an Asian buyer for about $500,000,000.00


----------



## Mickel

Brian Acheson said:


> Street talk column in afr is saying that Linc is four of five weeks from signing a deal to sell its Teresa coal mine to an Asian buyer for about $500,000,000.00




The Street Talk column also said the sale will include a royalty.

LNC currently up $0.11 at $2.79 after reaching a high today of $2.86


----------



## Jonathan111

mattryanshares said:


> Wheres the link??




couldnt find a link but found this on another forum, not sure about the credibility of street talk, but since they mentioned "asian interest" and "narrowed the list", sounds like a bit more than someones hunch..



_SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC.AU) is close to signing a deal to sell its
Teresa coal project in Queensland state to unspecified Asian interests for about A$500
million, according to an unsourced report in the Street Talk column in Wednesday's
Australian Financial Review. 
The report said Linc has been running a process for some months and has narrowed the
list of bidders to a handful. It said Linc is four to five weeks away from selling the
project. 

Newspaper website: http://www.afr.com 

-By Sydney bureau;  61-2-8272-4680 ; djnews.sydney@dowjones.com 

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important
business and market news, analysis and commentary:
http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=4Z6aNAis+5jBjf70lcg9Gw==. You can use this
link on the day this article is published and the following day. 


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 08, 2011 16:03 ET (21:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Wednesday 09 February 2011 08:03:00.000 AEST_


----------



## Jonathan111

Madison Williams hosted an International Energy/Natural Resource dinner with institutional investors in New York

...

Linc Energy remains our current favorite based on the following:

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/imag...gy, Clean Tech & Natural Resources-012411.pdf


----------



## page0023

http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/linc_close_to_offloading_teresa_XCEa81Qkkv9dzikHAP9NZK?hl


----------



## Mickel

Announcement on LEA#1 gas well- http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110210/pdf/01149767.pdf

"-Analysis of LEA #1 has confirmed three significant sand formation intervals that appear to be gas charged
- All LEA #1 gas samples shown to contain 99% to 100% purity of dry natural gas"

goes on to explain with that purity it can be piped in directly to the gas pipelines about 1.5 miles away.

"Linc Energy could not complete the planned flow tests over the Christmas break due to adverse weather in Anchorage as freezing conditions can alter the results of the flow tests and significantly increase testing costs. The Company is planning to carry out these tests as soon as the severe cold temperatures of the Alaskan winter have passed. *Linc Energy is aiming to have the Flow Test Rig on site in late March 2011*.

Peter Bond, CEO of Linc Energy, said, "The recent results received from Schlumberger are extremely positive for LEA #1. It clearly shows that the gas we encountered whilst drilling could have come from a reasonable source of a considerable size, which opens up the commercial potential for not just this well but for the additional leases which Linc Energy holds in this area."

So while it still looks very positive, we won't know for sure until April at the earliest.


----------



## Mickel

LNC finished today up 11c at $2.88 after an intra day high of $2.96.

What looks very promising for a further increase tomorrow is that the buy orders  (after close) are almost double the sell orders. This has been a rare occurence over the last few months.

Fingers crossed to hit/break $3.00 tomorrow !!! With the rumors of the $500M coal sale about to happen we should pass the $3.00 mark well and truly  ($500M cash sale = $1.00 per share approx).

Mr Z what is your view on LNC in the short term ?


----------



## Mr Z

*LNC*

It appears to me that Linc has a lot of long term holders, it responds well (relatively predictably) at levels that have seen high volume turn over in the past. On that basis I now look at the $2 area (just below - say 200DMA) as very solid support. Above that we have the 2.24-2.46 area which held on the last test. That is the good... the not so good is that we are running into a big area of what was in some pretty frenzied buying in 2008. Two days stand out and they cover the $2.90 to $5 range! In theory there should be lots of sellers in that area waiting to exit 'with their skin'. The question here becomes can the good news overwhelm the, what looks to be, large number of potential sellers. Personally I'm bullish commodities here and into the US spring where I think 'sell in May' will be the trade du jour! So I think that LNC will do quite well especially if we get some good announcements. I would be surprised if we get through that overhead range and I would be surprised if enough longer term holders where not bailing out to cause a serious correction from up in that range. The $64Q there is where do we correct? (assuming we get there!) My guess at this distance would be the 4.50 area because it coincides with the top of what looks to be a developing channel and the mid point of the second major volume up day @ around the right time of year. That is by no means cast iron but as I said LNC has responded quite well to this sort of volume analysis.... having said that it is a big range, big volume area i.e. MESSY! That makes it much harder to pull out any number that has a high probability of being correct!

Nearer term we have to get through 2.90 and 3.12 in some style, by the looks of it we will have a shorter term correction soonish. 2.90 being the bottom of that big range may prove tough to stay above at first... I'd call 2.45 to 2.60 support. Looking at the DJI, I think it is near term toppy... makes me a little bearish short term... say to the end of Feb.

So yeah... near term a little bearish, mid term bullish, probably very cautious over the US summer with a buy opportunity possibly appearing in the Aug-Oct range.



It is just my best guess looking at the charts today! Don't toast me if it is all wrong and I can and will change my mind regularly as this all unfolds!

DYODD... I hold LNC and have a vested interest, I am not an investment advisor nor does this post constitute advice! Cover thy tail with stops if you trade her! :


----------



## Mickel

Thanks for your views Mr Z. Looks like we may be in for a wild ride over the next 6 months.


----------



## Mickel

Good close on LNC S/P to finish up 7c at $2.95 on increased volume of 2.7M, especially on a down market day.

According to the AFR Street Talk column the Teresa sale will be finalised around mid March.

Considering Mr Z's predictions, we may not breach the $3.00 mark until the announcement. Hopefully then we will also pass the $3.16 mark as well.


----------



## Mr Z

Hi Mickel,

It is best not to consider any T/A predictive as such. In my world it more defines points at which I will make a decision about holding or selling. What I see as critical points! It is more about watching how the stock reacts at those points than predicting which ones it will actually hit. For the purpose of the post I just picked what I thought where the higher probability numbers.

It is good to see volume increase here! We will need some excitement to work our way through this overhead.


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> Hi Mickel,
> 
> It is best not to consider any T/A predictive as such. In my world it more defines points at which I will make a decision about holding or selling. What I see as critical points! It is more about watching how the stock reacts at those points than predicting which ones it will actually hit. For the purpose of the post I just picked what I thought where the higher probability numbers.
> 
> It is good to see volume increase here! We will need some excitement to work our way through this overhead.




I acknowledge your clarification,Mr Z. "Predictions" is not the right word.

I was trying to overlay your trading scenarios with the probable sale announcements
to indicate that they may be sufficient to overcome those resistance points of $2.90 and $3.12 in the timeline you mentioned (ie after the end of Feb).

I agree with you that LNC has a lot of long term holders and it will be most interesting to see when/if they start to reduce their holdings as the S/P moves above $3.50.
I hope that many of them will, by then, realise (if they haven't already) that LNC is a "Gusher" and there is plenty of upside to the S/P and that they will retain all/most of their holdings throughout 2011.
If the Teresa sale does eventuate (almost certain) there is a promise of another special dividend in late 2011 which will also assist to keep the S/P up. Given that the share register is tightly controlled and limited (PB has 200m of 500m shares) any sustained demand (particularily by institutions) should see the S/P rocket up.

As I have previously stated, I am a long term holder of LNC and I don't trade it.


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.lincenergy.com/analysts_reports.php

09 Feb 2011 AFR Article Suggests Progress in Linc's Asset Sale Program  
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




http://www.lincenergy.com/php/ic-dlAnalystsReport.php?id=14


----------



## mattryanshares

Jonathan111 said:


> http://www.lincenergy.com/analysts_reports.php
> 
> 09 Feb 2011 AFR Article Suggests Progress in Linc's Asset Sale Program
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com/php/ic-dlAnalystsReport.php?id=14




That sucks, why do i have to email steve madison to read the report???


----------



## dogeatdog

mattryanshares said:


> That sucks, why do i have to email steve madison to read the report???



Totally agree Matt. If Linc have it on their web site, surely one should be able to read the bloody thing 
Marvelous to wake up and be witness to a $3 + sp.. Made my day.

LNC holder.


----------



## skivvy

I agree with you Mr Z, linc does respond quite well to previous technical levels and for this I am happy, it helps to get the probability a little more in my favour.  The recent move up was text book with moving averages crossing on increasing volume, RSI moving through the midline and a breakaway gap forming all at the same time.  The test of current resistance around the most recent high of $3.05 is significant and a move through here will be a good reason technically to think that higher prices are ahead.  A pull back to support around the $2.85 level may occur but I believe the recent price action is due to speculation building around the possible sale of the Theresa tenaments and the sp will build on the back of this speculation alone.  If no good news flows or we see the broader market take a downturn then this stock will correct, I am weary of that.  Linc has a lot of things going on and the possible sale of the Theresa tenaments may well be the catalyst to ignite the share price going forward with no looking back.

I have been a holder of linc over a few years now but have also traded in and out of the stock as well.  I have picked up more shares recently as the technicals were to good to pass up and I also believe, as Mickel does that this stock is a real up and comer and will be a great performer over the next few years. Good luck to all holders.


----------



## mattryanshares

dogeatdog said:


> Totally agree Matt. If Linc have it on their web site, surely one should be able to read the bloody thing
> Marvelous to wake up and be witness to a $3 + sp.. Made my day.
> 
> LNC holder.




Whats more i emailed steve, and joined the madison website with 2 seperate email address, authenticated the account but cant log in!!!
Have since sent email to them explaining what i think of there company and protocols!!!


----------



## Jonathan111

I wonder how Linc is going with its UCG JVs/partnering in india and china..


*CIL extends bidding date for gasification project*

Thursday, 17 Feb 2011Coal India has extended the deadline for submitting bids for underground coal gasification project on the request of several companies.

To tide over the predicament of commercially exploiting coal blocks located in difficult terrains, country’s biggest miner had put up two of its coal blocks on offer to be developed for underground coal gasification. However, due to requests from various players and consequently lesser number of bids, the company postponed the last date of submission and opening up of the bids from February 10 to February 28.

A source in Central Mine Planning and Design Institute a subsidiary of Coal India, which has the mandate for overseeing the bidding process said that “It is a new initiative and will be requiring a new technology so companies have requested us to extend the date.”

The Thesgora C block, located in the Pench Kanhan coalfield in Chindwara district of Madhya Pradesh, falls under the command area of Western Coalfields.

The second block, named Kaitha block, under Central Coalfields command area, is located in the Ramgarh coalfield in the Ramgarh district of Jharkhand. The company is looking for private players that can develop the blocks and produce gas from them for a period of 25 years.

While the first two years would comprise exploration and preparing a mining plan, the next three years are assigned to run the blocks and produce gas from them on a pilot basis.

After that, these companies will run the block for a period of 20 years. The firms will be solely responsible for producing the gas and transporting them to the desired players.

Mr Anish De CEO of Mercados Energy Markets an energy consultancy company said that “The technology for coal gasification existed for quite sometime but not in India. Russians are the leaders in it. No Indian company has expertise in underground coal gasification.”

According to World Coal Association, UCG is a method of converting unworked coal into a combustible gas which can be used for industrial heating, power generation or the manufacture of hydrogen, synthetic natural gas (syngas) or diesel fuel.
http://www.steelguru.com/raw_material_news/CIL_extends_bidding_date_for_gasification_project/191519.html


----------



## Jonathan111

* Linc Energy has confirmed that it will push ahead with the start up of phase two of the Alaskan natural gas drilling program by the middle of this year *

I thought they may have been able to start sooner than mid year... :bloated:
I wonder why it would take so long... Too cold?

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=104057


----------



## Jonathan111

This doesnt sound too good.. Unless Linc win the CIL tender

Maybe Linc has the money to go it alone?


ASX ann

Carbon Energy announces MoU with Adani Group in India
Carbon Energy Limited (ASX:CNX) is pleased to announce that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Adani Enterprises Ltd (Adani), a member of the Adani Group of India, for the purpose of establishing a joint venture in India to pursue Underground Coal Gasification (UCG).
The first opportunity that Adani and Carbon Energy will explore has arisen as a result of Coal India Limited (a Government of India Undertaking) operating a tender process in which Indian coal firms have sought UCG technology partners to participate in joint venture development of UCG interests. The MoU facilitates the partnership between Carbon Energy and Adani to jointly participate in this tender submission.
Andrew Dash, Managing Director, noted that partnership with Adani brings significant benefit to Carbon Energy. “Carbon Energy will now be pursuing projects on three continents with the addition of India to our existing interests in Australia and in Chile. Adani is a major player in the Indian coal and power industries and has already established itself in Queensland, Australia. We are looking forward to working with Adani to build Carbon Energy’s UCG project base in India”.
Harsh Mishra, Adani Group’s President - Corporate Planning commented “Adani has selected Carbon Energy as our technology partner for this important submission to Coal India as it is the leading proponent of UCG globally and it has superiority in UCG technology based on extensive research conducted in conjunction with Australia’s CSIRO. ”
The Memorandum of Understanding is for a period of 18 months during which it is anticipated that Adani and Carbon Energy will jointly prepare and submit a bid to establish a UCG project on Coal India tenements in India. If the bid is successful, A*dani will bear all costs throughout the exploration phase, including Carbon Energy’s reasonable costs*, until exploration has been successfully conducted and a suitable UCG resource established. Adani and Carbon Energy then anticipate forming a joint venture company in India in which *Adani will have a 75% share and commitment and Carbon Energy will have a 25% share *and commitment.


----------



## dogeatdog

This deal may inadvertently help Linc in the longer term, bringing further exposure to the concept of GTL etc, as a credible source of producing energy.
Adani are obviously a huge player, but competitors may choose to collaborate with Linc, to distance themselves from both Carbon energy, and Adani. (IMO) 

Crap week so far for the Linc sp. Volatility to be expected I guess.

Linc holder.


----------



## skivvy

Yes it seems odd for Adani to form a MOU with Carbon Energy after only recently going through all the dealings in buying the Galilee tenament from Linc in August last year.  Not sure of why they went this way, but for me this is no big deal and does not change the outlook for Linc.  A bit disappointing that they didnt choose Linc but anyway moving on.


----------



## dogeatdog

skivvy said:


> Yes it seems odd for Adani to form a MOU with Carbon Energy after only recently going through all the dealings in buying the Galilee tenament from Linc in August last year.  Not sure of why they went this way, but for me this is no big deal and does not change the outlook for Linc.  A bit disappointing that they didnt choose Linc but anyway moving on.




Totally agree skivvy, no big deal.
I'm also wondering if PB would be concerned about technology transfer. If Adani are funding the MOU with Carbon energy, they may expect to garner GTL technology, to go it alone in the future.
Historically, the Japanese were good a that game, and now the Chinese, Indians and Koreans are becoming savvy, to save on R&D.


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Totally agree skivvy, no big deal.
> I'm also wondering if PB would be concerned about technology transfer. If Adani are funding the MOU with Carbon energy, they may expect to garner GTL technology, to go it alone in the future.
> Historically, the Japanese were good a that game, and now the Chinese, Indians and Koreans are becoming savvy, to save on R&D.




Agree that PB would be concerned about technology transfer and for that reason I don't think he would agree to a 25/75 partnership.Perhaps that's why Adani went with Carbon Energy who have much less cash than LNC.
You mentioned GTL technology with Carbon Energy. As far as I'm aware CNX has no GTL experience at all.
Some of the reports previously quoted on this thread mentioned that India had no UCG experience.They mentioned that most experience was developed in Russia/Soviet Union then stated that CNX was the leading player because of its links with CSIRO research.
They totally omitted to state that LNC now controls the former Soviet state company that developed UCG technology and that LNC has been building on that initial technology for 10 years- much longer than CNX has been trialling theirs.
The statements may convince the Indian media that Adani have selected the best, but it won't fool other players that are looking to get into UCG IMHO.


----------



## bloubul

a bit out of topic but still relevant...

Very interesting and concerning expose on CSG industry on last nights 4 Corners program (you could replay on ABC's iview). Apart from the scary images of methane gas leaking through water bore holes and gas wells on some farms with CSG operations and chemicals used in the fraccing process, it's really frustrating that the QLD government does not seem to have a grip on CSG operations which seems to operate under different set of rules applied to UCG sector. One particular well leak which had serious flaws and which they have unsuccessfully tried to plug was only reported to DERM about 13 months after it first had issues.... and they are still operating without even a slap on the wrist. 
What concerns me as LNC shareholder is the hypocrisy of the QLD government and in particular the inept minerals minister Stephen Robertson.... nicely passing the buck to environment minister. How could they shut down all UCG operators and trials based on a single Cougar Energy contamination which now seems far less detrimental to the environment than what I saw on 4 Corners.

I'm not implying that all CSG companies are foul, but QGC and AGL seems to be dragging the rest through the methane mud.


----------



## Mr Z

I found it a bit of an emotional hatchet job pretty well devoid of any qualified input. Its is a pity that the sentiment is 'lets kill the industry' rather than lets settle the issues. 

In one of those scenes of a burning well you could hear the propane bottle releasing gas, it sounded like a total fitup for the camera. Anyway... I was left with a list of unanswered questions at each site they showed. Call me skeptical of the jurnos motives... I would need to dig into it quite bit more before I'd buy their line.


----------



## Dr Value

Hi Guys

Long time holder of LNC and have followed this thread pretty much daily for quite a while now. Love the work that you're all putting in.

Pretty disappointing day today. Starting to get a bit edgy waiting for some news re: coal sale. In fact Linc have been a little quiet of late which isn't usually Bond's style. Given there is so much going on with the company you almost expect an announcement each week these days. The waiting game continues


----------



## Brian Acheson

Hi 
Re: bloubuls comments 
I was told about 12 months ago the ABC radio in QLD was saying the Queensland Government did not get the any revenue from UCG or GTL industries e.g. Cougar, Carbon and Linc as revenue from them went to the Federal Gov not State but State Government  did get revenue from CSG industry. If this is correct it could explain why the Queensland Government is making a show of diligently protecting the environment with their hold on Cougar and Carbon without affecting their income by intervening with the CSG boys. I don’t know how right it is some might be able to check this out.

News out that PB will be in Sydney on the 7th and 8th March in the Linc diesel car then Canberra on 9th, Adelaide on the 10th and 11th then Perth on the 13th. I wonder is  PB going to use one of these venues to release news of coal sale.

Brian


----------



## dogeatdog

Sitting here in Holland, watching the US markets off sizably, and the UN evacuating staff from Libya.
Looks like a bumpy ride for the Aussie, and Asian markets today :dunno:
Hold onto your hats.

Lnc holder.

Good luck to all those effected by the earth quake in NZ


----------



## mexican

Looks like we just filled the gap Mr.Z!


----------



## Mr Z

Yeah... came out of $2.61 in fine style! Not huge volume but encouraging none the less  Looks like we might close out over the 50DMA ---> always a good thing.


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> I found it a bit of an emotional hatchet job pretty well devoid of any qualified input. Its is a pity that the sentiment is 'lets kill the industry' rather than lets settle the issues.
> 
> In one of those scenes of a burning well you could hear the propane bottle releasing gas, it sounded like a total fitup for the camera. Anyway... I was left with a list of unanswered questions at each site they showed. Call me skeptical of the jurnos motives... I would need to dig into it quite bit more before I'd buy their line.




I watched the 4Corners program again last night after reading your post, Mr Z. I think the noise you heard was the wind against the "Mike" rather than a propane bottle releasing gas. I also know one farmer in that area and he confirms that the farmers in that area are very worried about chemicals polluting the water table and also substancially reducing the water levels in the bores.
There was some evidence on the program from a leading scientist confirming that some of the chemicals used in "fraccing" are deadly and the companies are in breach of State and Federal regulations for deficient paperwork in relation to these chemicals.

I'm inclined to agree with the recent posts of Brian and Bloubul.


----------



## Mr Z

Mickel said:


> I watched the 4Corners program again last night after reading your post, Mr Z. I think the noise you heard was the wind against the "Mike" rather than a propane bottle releasing gas.




I doubt that, the mics are well protected from the wind and don't pickup wind noise like a handycam does. It had the distinct sound of gas coming out under pressure and it would surprise me if you get that from a normal well. In fact it surprised me that the well looked like such a wreck site, it looked more like a water bore gone wrong than something a gas company left behind. If they are leaving sites in that state they are begging for a slapping and all things considered you'd have to expect that they are a lot more careful than that. Anway that whole scene made me frown and think I'd be fact checking before I bought what was presented.



Mickel said:


> I also know one farmer in that area and he confirms that the farmers in that area are very worried about chemicals polluting the water table and also substancially reducing the water levels in the bores.




I don't doubt they are worried and I have no doubt they don't fully understand what they are dealing with which must be concerning. By the same token I don't see these companies risking huge investments by making fundamental mistakes like poisoning ground water. After all they can't run from it and the compensation costs would be huge if the charges leveled are correct, there is a great incentive to get it right.



Mickel said:


> There was some evidence on the program from a leading scientist confirming that some of the chemicals used in "fraccing" are deadly and the companies are in breach of State and Federal regulations for deficient paperwork in relation to these chemicals..




Some of the chemicals that farmers put on farms are deadly, it is about how they are used and in what concentration. It is not like fracking is new or not well understood, the oil industry have been doing it for many decades. I would have thought that if it is that bad they'd have been shut down long ago! Maybe it is evil, but no coherent argument was put forward. A long that line they presented no qualitative evidence that the ground water was in fact being impacted. 

There where claims of a 10 meter drop in ground water levels but no more discussion about that, was it a local effect, was it across the basin, does it mean that the water has gone or is now just more inaccessible... etc etc... no real discussion of the issue in any detail.

Like I said I found it devoid of fact based discussion and heavy on emotion.

I think that one of the main issues here is the way that mineral rights work in this country, the money that was being made seemed to be galling the farmers as much as anything. Makes me wonder how much the whole thing would change if the payouts where stupendous. As always there was no mention of the capital investment and the risks taken, people look at mining like it is some one way, no risk gravy train to stealing the nations treasures that belong to us all... well the successes belong to us all, you shareholders can lump the losses.

Anyway... I'd have been happier to see some willingness to solve the issues, whatever they turn out to be in reality, rather than club the industry to death. We are staring down the barrel of another huge energy crunch and will will need to use everything we have in the short term if we are to have any hope of transitioning to an more sustainable future. Sad fact is that renewable energy ain't there yet!


----------



## mattryanshares

A new announcement has been released for LNC
Summary: LNC Acquires Oil Producing Asset in Wyoming, USA
Announcement number: 229507
Release time: 2/25/2011 12:58:00 PM
Price sensitive: Yes


----------



## basilio

mattryanshares said:


> A new announcement has been released for LNC
> Summary: LNC Acquires Oil Producing Asset in Wyoming, USA
> Announcement number: 229507
> Release time: 2/25/2011 12:58:00 PM
> Price sensitive: Yes




This deal was noted a couple of weeks ago and it's certainly great to see the details.

It will be interesting see what the financial projections are for this deal. My initial (back of the envelope) estimates  are around $200m a year. If oil is bringing $100 a barrel and EOR costs are $40 a barrel (I believe Bond suggested around $30 previously) then a 10,000 barrel a day project should deliver $600k a day or $210m over a 350 day year.

The LNC report suggests a 10,000-20,000 barrel a day production target with final extractable reserves of 100m barrels.

This is seriously good. And the field cost $20m !


----------



## Atomic

basilio said:


> This deal was noted a couple of weeks ago and it's certainly great to see the details.
> 
> It will be interesting see what the financial projections are for this deal. My initial (back of the envelope) estimates  are around $200m a year. If oil is bringing $100 a barrel and EOR costs are $40 a barrel (I believe Bond suggested around $30 previously) then a 10,000 barrel a day project should deliver $600k a day or $210m over a 350 day year.
> 
> The LNC report suggests a 10,000-20,000 barrel a day production target with final extractable reserves of 100m barrels.
> 
> This is seriously good. And the field cost $20m !



Agreed their with valuations Basilio, but seriously an understatement with the good bit !!!! , I rated it at fenomanoly Mega , but hey i hold linc buy now


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> Some of the chemicals that farmers put on farms are deadly, it is about how they are used and in what concentration. It is not like fracking is new or not well understood, the oil industry have been doing it for many decades. I would have thought that if it is that bad they'd have been shut down long ago! Maybe it is evil, but no coherent argument was put forward. A long that line they presented no qualitative evidence that the ground water was in fact being impacted.
> 
> There where claims of a 10 meter drop in ground water levels but no more discussion about that, was it a local effect, was it across the basin, does it mean that the water has gone or is now just more inaccessible... etc etc... no real discussion of the issue in any detail.
> 
> Anyway... I'd have been happier to see some willingness to solve the issues, whatever they turn out to be in reality, rather than club the industry to death. We are staring down the barrel of another huge energy crunch and will will need to use everything we have in the short term if we are to have any hope of transitioning to an more sustainable future. Sad fact is that renewable energy ain't there yet!




I agree that the water table levels section of the report wasn't explained clearly. However, if you are aware of the CSG process, you know that they need to extract the water from the coal (and therefore from the water table) to allow the gas to escape. This water will almost certainly contain some of the fraccing chemicals. QCG have stated that they will spend up to $1Billion to purify the water so it can be used for agriculture. But there have been no trials to prove that it can be done for this cost if at all. There will be massive amounts of water extracted when 40,000 wells are spudded.
Regarding the chemicals, there is an extended interview with the Chemical Management expert Dr Lloyd-Smith on the 4 Corners website that is scary-

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20110221/gas/default.htm

In my view, it is ironic that the UCG industry, where the process doesn't interfere with the water table, is only permitted on a trial basis with very strict environmental monitoring, while the CSG industry, that does interfere with the water table, has been given the commercial go ahead (albeit with many environmental conditions) but apparently little monitoring.

As others have said, the State Govt (who are responsible for the monitoring) obtain Mega $ from CSG but nothing directly from UCG.


----------



## Jonathan111

I wonder how the coal sale is going...  It would be good if there was an announcement during the Diesel Dash...(did you book your place?). But im still happy to wait longer..


http://www.moneylife.in/article/icvl-may-buy-coal-assets-in-australia/14271.html
ICVL, at the time of its constitution, had set itself a target to buy at least one coal asset by the end of March, but has made no progress yet. 



http://www.businessspectator.com.au...overseas-coal-buys-DQA28?opendocument&src=rss
The consortium was hopeful of acquiring two to three coal assets in Australia and Indonesia this year, and could look for mines in Mozambique as well, Mathur said.

Last month the consortium decided not to counter Rio Tinto's $3.9 billion bid for Riversdale.

The four listed state firms in the group held combined cash reserves of around 440 billion rupees ($A9.6 billion) as of the end of September, but all four also have ambitious expansion or acquisition plans of their own.


----------



## teabagger

basilio said:


> This deal was noted a couple of weeks ago and it's certainly great to see the details.
> 
> It will be interesting see what the financial projections are for this deal. My initial (back of the envelope) estimates  are around $200m a year. If oil is bringing $100 a barrel and EOR costs are $40 a barrel (I believe Bond suggested around $30 previously) then a 10,000 barrel a day project should deliver $600k a day or $210m over a 350 day year.
> 
> The LNC report suggests a 10,000-20,000 barrel a day production target with final extractable reserves of 100m barrels.
> 
> This is seriously good. And the field cost $20m !




These guys seem to be doing similar things nearby..and paying for co2

http://clients.weblink.com.au/clients/elkpet/article.asp?asx=ELK&view=6525853


----------



## basilio

That was some serious buying this afternoon for LNC.  Pushed it up 10c. Perhaps the next coal sale announcement is getting close.

I remember when the first coal sale stared to firm up in July last year. There was much speculation about how this potentially company making sale would impact on the SP. 

And then we got the $3billion sale - and nothing happened. In fact LNC drifted down again for a few more months - despite having $500 m in the bank and $2b plus in potential royalties

Nine months later will the market be just as casual about a $500-600m cash injection that adds  an instant $1 per share value to the company ?


----------



## dogeatdog

So our esteemed leader, Peter Bond heads off on a pioneering venture.

http://www.lincenergy.com/linc_vodcasts.php

This could be a very positive marketing move.
I would hope Linc will enlighten us on the logistics of the trip, ie Is Peter to be followed by a re-fueling vehicle etc.
It would also be good to highlight the amount of coal that was consumed to produce the necessary Diesel for the trip, for analytical purposes.

Anyway, good luck Peter, and avoid those Kangaroos :car:


----------



## Mickel

I was at the function at the Marriott Hotel in Brisbane last night.

The following are my recollections of what PB said both in his presentation and in reply to questions-

-If West Texas crude is $100 then  Linc diesel would sell for $115

-RBS Morgans analyst report has just been finalised and apparently will be available on the website soon. It is very positive with "Options Galore" and a current valuation of $3.25.

-VW Golf runs very well on linc diesel which meets exacting standards for european diesel motors

-Once a GTL module plant is on site it should be ready to produce within 6 mths-

-The initial site will depend on which tenement (here or overseas) has all the permitting approved first.PB won't be held hostage to slow permitting by authorities

-PB is aiming to have the first steel of the module laid by end of 2011

-He put his views to new Qld Mines Minister Stirling Hinchcliffe (who was at Chinchilla for the start of the diesel dash) that CSG industry has full commercial go ahead, despite depleting the water table, while UCG industry which doesn't interfere with the water table, has only trial approvals.

-PB confirmed that the trial for UCG was to end this year with the Govt to decide on its future early in 2012 but has now been extended for a further year.

-An ABC Landline TV crew are following the Diesel Dash and are producing a doco on the trip.

-Nothing was mentioned about the Teresa Coal Sale (I think most of the audience realise PB won't say anything until it it signed off). The AFR article on 9 Feb mentioned that LINC was 4-5 weeks away from closing the sale.

That would fit in nicely with the final Diesel Dash function in Perth on Sunday night 13 March.


----------



## basilio

Nice work Mickel.  Excellent to hear a summary of the LNC presentation.

Just for interest was there any discussion on the AFC Fuel cell technology ?   Was it on the radar as far as part of no carbon power plants in South Australia for example?

And was there any elaboration on the EOR program being proposed/developed in USA ?

Cheers


----------



## dogeatdog

Yes! Thanks for sharing the info Mickel.

One question: Any idea how the comparison between the West Texas crude, and Linc's Diesel was worked out? Diesel being a refined product, and sold by the litre etc, while the former by the barrel?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Nice work Mickel.  Excellent to hear a summary of the LNC presentation.
> 
> Just for interest was there any discussion on the AFC Fuel cell technology ?   Was it on the radar as far as part of no carbon power plants in South Australia for example?
> 
> And was there any elaboration on the EOR program being proposed/developed in USA ?
> 
> Cheers




Hi Bas

There was no mention of the AFC Fuel Cell and I can't recall any mention of UCG in Sth Aust last night.

Regarding EOR, PB mentioned that that they should be able to produce 10,000 to 20,000 BPD from the Rancher assets & for $20M they will have an asset worth in excess of $1B (I think he said $1B not $2B). He stated that there would be more depleted oil field acquisitions to come and that initially they would purchase CO2 to inject into the Rancher wells for an early increase in production before they have their own CO2 from UCG. He mentioned a production cost of $40 pb using their own CO2. They hope to be producing their own CO2 before the end of 2011.

He also mentioned that they get about 15 enquiries a month for joint ventures and licensing of their technologies. They are very selective and only consider those where they have a majority interest and are the operator. PB said in some situations they were unaware if they were talking to a Govt minister or a supervisor of parks (or something similiarly menial). This will be remedied to a great extent when they have their regional offices (Europe and Asia) fully functional.

The information just kept flowing last night interspersed with jokes/wisecracks. I will consider taking a recorder to the next presentation so I don't miss anything.


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Yes! Thanks for sharing the info Mickel.
> 
> One question: Any idea how the comparison between the West Texas crude, and Linc's Diesel was worked out? Diesel being a refined product, and sold by the litre etc, while the former by the barrel?




Hi Doggy

PB mentioned that the diesel that comes out of the LNC demo plant at Chinchilla can be put straight into a car even though some wax can be extracted. While it would be a simple addition to add this function to the LNC plant, they have elected to have it refined off site at present. The resultant barrel of diesel (159 L by my calculations) would command a 15% premium to West Texas crude according to PB.


----------



## Jonathan111

Very informative post. Thanks Mickel!


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Hi Doggy
> 
> PB mentioned that the diesel that comes out of the LNC demo plant at Chinchilla can be put straight into a car even though some wax can be extracted. While it would be a simple addition to add this function to the LNC plant, they have elected to have it refined off site at present. The resultant barrel of diesel (159 L by my calculations) would command a 15% premium to West Texas crude according to PB.




Thank you Mickel.

A very positive day for the share price today.
Looking forward to the next analyst report.

Pleasant weekend people


----------



## skivvy

Been doing some research and reflection on current open positions (with a cold beer in hand) and was wondering to myself what is holding Linc back.  I dont really know why, as all the news has been pretty damn positive especially the sale of the Galilee tenament last year.  The $500 million in the bank, plus the ongoing royalties from Adani ensure future cash flow will not be a problem.  

The acquisition of 122,000 acres of Alaskan oil and gas leases last year and the recent acquisition of a further 181,414 acres of Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) coal exploration licences in Alaska is also positive with the spudding of its first gas exploration well (LEA #1) located in the Cook Inlet Basin in Alaska last year coming on pretty quickly. The presence of high quality gas charged zones has been reported and in one of the announcements PB said that Linc Energy is aiming to have the Flow Test Rig on site in late March 2011.  

With the recent acquisition of the 27,856 acres of producing oil fields in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming from Rancher Energy Corp (for $20 million, Rancher paid $70 million) with a current oil production of approximately 190 barrels per day across three fields and the potential to increase oil production from EOR (CO2 Flooding) to 10,000 barrels/day to 20,000 barrels/day range with total recoverable oil from these fields being approximately 100 million barrels, this transaction is pretty significant also.

The twofold increase in syngas flows from the Chinchilla production plant last year shows Linc are leading the field in the UCG area and the potential sale of the Theresa tenament down the road are even more reasons for this share price to be racing ahead.

Even as I write this, I am thinking I need to buy some more shares on any dips in the future as there is just far too many reasons why this company is going places.  
I look forward to reading any further details about Linc and hope that other holders can shed some light as to why Linc is not racing along, or if I have missed something in my research or misquoted PB.

Mickel, as a long term holder and supporter of Linc can you add anymore dialogue or correct my interpretation of the companies current state? 

I guess in time the sp will appreciate and there are a few hurdles to cross with the closing of the Theresa sale, the realisation of the increase in flow rates from Wyoming fields using CO2 flooding and the testing and commercialisation of Lea 1 in Alaska. But from where I sit alot of these facts have not been taken into account in the sp yet.
Good luck to all holders


----------



## basilio

skivvy said:


> Been doing some research and reflection on current open positions (with a cold beer in hand) and was wondering to myself what is holding Linc back.  I dont really know why, as all the news has been pretty damn positive especially the sale of the Galilee tenament last year.  The $500 million in the bank, plus the ongoing royalties from Adani ensure future cash flow will not be a problem.
> 
> The acquisition of 122,000 acres of Alaskan oil and gas leases last year and the recent acquisition of a further 181,414 acres of Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) coal exploration licences in Alaska is also positive with the spudding of its first gas exploration well (LEA #1) located in the Cook Inlet Basin in Alaska last year coming on pretty quickly. The presence of high quality gas charged zones has been reported and in one of the announcements PB said that Linc Energy is aiming to have the Flow Test Rig on site in late March 2011.
> 
> With the recent acquisition of the 27,856 acres of producing oil fields in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming from Rancher Energy Corp (for $20 million, Rancher paid $70 million) with a current oil production of approximately 190 barrels per day across three fields and the potential to increase oil production from EOR (CO2 Flooding) to 10,000 barrels/day to 20,000 barrels/day range with total recoverable oil from these fields being approximately 100 million barrels, this transaction is pretty significant also.
> 
> The twofold increase in syngas flows from the Chinchilla production plant last year shows Linc are leading the field in the UCG area and the potential sale of the Theresa tenament down the road are even more reasons for this share price to be racing ahead.
> 
> Even as I write this, I am thinking I need to buy some more shares on any dips in the future as there is just far too many reasons why this company is going places.
> I look forward to reading any further details about Linc and hope that other holders can shed some light as to why Linc is not racing along, or if I have missed something in my research or misquoted PB.
> 
> Mickel, as a long term holder and supporter of Linc can you add anymore dialogue or correct my interpretation of the companies current state?
> 
> I guess in time the sp will appreciate and there are a few hurdles to cross with the closing of the Theresa sale, the realisation of the increase in flow rates from Wyoming fields using CO2 flooding and the testing and commercialisation of Lea 1 in Alaska. But from where I sit alot of these facts have not been taken into account in the sp yet.
> Good luck to all holders




It doesn't make sense does it ? For example just compare LNC's current share price with all additional resources and opportunities  available to the $3-4-5.00 prices of 2008.

My take on the picture  is

1) The "proper" analysts (by and large)  just won't take newer companies seriously . If you are not  a current ASX 100 company you are unlikely to get on the recommendation list

2) Overall the market is now dominated by short term traders who  will push shares up and oown in aflash. Very hard to build a solid base.


----------



## Atomic

Possibly the sp is lacking as there is not much production yet, and as it picks up so to the sp. This issue was mentioned elsewhere and without decent past present earnings are not on the table its harder to put a fundamental value on linc and to also predict future earnings


----------



## Jonathan111

Found these links on another forum..

Candidates must be degree-qualified in Geology, with a minimum of 5 years' coal experience in Southern Africa. This position is a pivotal technical role providing input on UCG, conventional coal, power and related energy project opportunities.
http://jobs.miningweekly.com/job/senior-coal-geologist

http://www.jobs.co.za/job-seekers/jobs/90814/commercial-manager-southern-africa


Sasol JV??


----------



## basilio

Really interesting find Jonathan on the 2 South African positions. That is the first time we have heard about LNC's interest in that part of the world.
________________________________________________________________

With regarded to employment LNC currently has 36 positions advertised on it's website in Brisbane and the US.  Certainly looks like they are in full commercialisation mode. And isn't it great that they have so much cash in the bank to pay wages and development costs..
__________________________________________________________________

I just saw the first story in The Australian on Peter Bonds dash across Australia on UCG sourced diesel.  Not that confident about how the message is getting across.



> IT'S 40 degrees on a windless day in a shimmering dry field of brigalow scrub in western Queensland, but for Peter Bond, this is a field of dreams where he can *produce petrol *that will power him to the other side of the continent for* 20c a litre.*
> 
> Bond, the head of coal miner Linc Energy, will set out this morning from Brisbane to Sydney, then Canberra, Adelaide and Perth, in a Volkswagen Golf powered by *diesel petrol (???) *produced by the controversial method of underground coal gasification.




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ces-cheap-diesel/story-e6frg8zx-1226016134384

I just don't think that  LNC will be selling diesel for 20c a litre and I'm trying to work out how a reporter can manage to totally confuse "diesel" and "petrol". Needs some chemistry lessons I think!


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Really interesting find Jonathan on the 2 South African positions. That is the first time we have heard about LNC's interest in that part of the world.
> ________________________________________________________________
> 
> With regarded to employment LNC currently has 36 positions advertised on it's website in Brisbane and the US.  Certainly looks like they are in full commercialisation mode. And isn't it great that they have so much cash in the bank to pay wages and development costs..
> __________________________________________________________________
> 
> I just saw the first story in The Australian on Peter Bonds dash across Australia on UCG sourced diesel.  Not that confident about how the message is getting across.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ces-cheap-diesel/story-e6frg8zx-1226016134384
> 
> I just don't think that  LNC will be selling diesel for 20c a litre and I'm trying to work out how a reporter can manage to totally confuse "diesel" and "petrol". Needs some chemistry lessons I think!




What a fool this Andrew Fraser, the journalist who wrote this article, appears to be.
Linc does not claim to be a mining company for a start.
Also the fact he mentions Diesel then petrol in the same sentence, shows his lack of technical knowledge.

Regarding the frustration of various Linc share holders:
It's just a case of Linc starting to generate revenue, rather than the continued promise of it.
The coal tenement sales encourage speculative trading. Once we have a revenue stream, this company will take off, and benefit long term share holders. IMHO

LNC holder


----------



## Jonathan111

basilio said:


> Really interesting find Jonathan on the 2 South African positions. That is the first time we have heard about LNC's interest in that part of the world.






Thanks Basilio, below is a post by Nicole, who is refering to the Brisbane Diesel Dash meeting. In bold it says that new locations will be announced. It also says inquiries are coming in constantly asking LNC to set up UCG plants. (a lot better than Linc chasing partners in hope) I will be in Sydney for the Diesel Dash meeting and am planning to have a drink, hopefully I wont get too excited and have too many beers, so i can remember what is said.. :bier:



> These are some points that were made last night by Peter Bond
> 
> Stirling Hinchcliffe (Labor Minister for Infrastructure and Planning, Mining QLD) was impressed by Linc operations
> 
> Linc is getting 10 to 15 enquiries per month with regard to setting up UCG plants around the world from governments and private business
> 
> Generation 5 is the roll out model around the globe.
> 
> Generation 6 and 7 are just new, improved and even more efficient models.
> 
> *Linc will be announcing the opening of locations around the world.*
> Linc has the cheapest CO2 in the world when producing from UCG
> 
> They will get around 500 bopd from Wyoming (ex-Rancher's oil fields) currently at around 200 bopd just with better efficiencies and before any CO2 flooding
> 
> Linc will initially pay for CO2 to inject into Wyoming oil fields to get more cash flow.
> 
> Peter stated that the Rancher assets purchased for $20 million and obviously when CO2 flooding and further drilling occurs could be worth as much as $2 billion
> 
> To set up a UCG plant is relatively simple as it is set up as modular. Would take around no more than 6 months from construction to set up a 5,000 barrel a day operation.
> 
> Will happen end of this year (targeting), start of next year at the latest.
> 
> Whoever issues the permits first will be the first commercial operation whether that be Chinchilla, Wyoming, Arckaringa or anywhere else for that matter
> 
> The Governor of Wyoming (Matt Mead) really likes Linc and is supportive of Linc's plans in Wyoming.
> 
> Independant scientific report (ISP) looks like issuing their report for Chinchilla/QLD by end of 2012 and not early 2012 as previously envisaged.
> 
> Coal deposits away from ports are becoming very attractive to overseas/asian interests because coal deposits around the Ports have diminishing resources hence why they are looking at coal deposits far from ports.
> 
> Prospective overseas buyers are happy to build the infrastructure. (my comments - this was actually reported in the AFR a few days ago)
> 
> No mention of Teresa coal sale
> 
> UCG produced synthetic diesel is of European standards (better than Australian diesel) therefore diesel motor vehicles in Australia will run much better using Linc's diesel.
> 
> PB had a coffee with CEO of Caltex Australia the other day and was told by him that either every month or 2 Australia was importing 1 extra tanker of oil (I may have misinterpreted this comment, can anyone that went shed more detail?)
> 
> Coverage and initiation of BUY by Royal Bank Of Scotland is significant for Linc as they they are world wide reputable broking house.
> 
> So all in all, looks good for Linc in my opinion.
> 
> RBS had a target of $3.25 and also "said the stock could be worth as much as $7.89 in a best-case important scenario." quoted from AFR 2/3/11.




Maybe the reporter saw the vodcast and got confused?

It showed something like 67 Litres for $13 on the Linc Fuel Pump, 

$13/67L = 19.4

$30(Linc production cost) / 159L (barrel) = 0.188679245
19c per litre?

Anyway, LNC will be getting lots of attention with the Diesel Dash and all the announcements and news due out...


The next vodcast, 3  is out
http://www.lincenergy.com/linc_vodcasts.php


----------



## Mickel

Hi Skivvy

All your quoted LNC assets are correct as far as I'm aware. And you haven't mentioned the SA coal and also oil in Arckaringa Basin or the AFC Fuel Cells. There is also a potential big new coal tenement in Qld where LNC will be drilling this year. This is mentioned in the RBS Morgans analyst report that PB referred to. He also mentioned that they have been trying to get them to cover LNC for 9 months and the reality is RBS Morgans had to drop another company to cover LNC.

Looking back to the heady S/P days of late 2008, we had the delayed GTL Demo plant dragging on from Feb to Oct before diesel was produced. During that time, 5 Sept, LNC announced a HOA with a chinese company to sell Teresa for AU$1.5B. This was totally unexpected and sent the S/P soaring. Then we had the diesel flowing on 14 Oct.

Since then there have been negative surprises regarding LNC's progress (until Aug 2010). So the market is wary until various milestones have been reached-
1. Sale of Teresa
2. Commercial operation of UCG
3. Positive result with gas flow in Alaska
4. EOR operation producing oil in US
5. Contracts signed for GTL module construction with acceptable fixed price.
6. The above will lead to sustainable operating profits
7. Siteing and completion of GTL plant in situ.

Most of these are targetted for completion this year and if they are achieved the S/P could hit the $10 mark. RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) Morgans says $7.89 if the above are realised plus valuation of the other Qld coal asset @ $500M.

If the oil price keeps rising the S/P could go higher.

All this IMHO. I'm not an advisor and accept no liability

PS I last topped up in June 2010 at around $1 and wished I bought more with gearing.


----------



## skivvy

Mickel said:


> Hi Skivvy
> 
> All your quoted LNC assets are correct as far as I'm aware. And you haven't mentioned the SA coal and also oil in Arckaringa Basin or the AFC Fuel Cells. There is also a potential big new coal tenement in Qld where LNC will be drilling this year. This is mentioned in the RBS Morgans analyst report that PB referred to. He also mentioned that they have been trying to get them to cover LNC for 9 months and the reality is RBS Morgans had to drop another company to cover LNC.
> 
> Looking back to the heady S/P days of late 2008, we had the delayed GTL Demo plant dragging on from Feb to Oct before diesel was produced. During that time, 5 Sept, LNC announced a HOA with a chinese company to sell Teresa for AU$1.5B. This was totally unexpected and sent the S/P soaring. Then we had the diesel flowing on 14 Oct.
> 
> Since then there have been negative surprises regarding LNC's progress (until Aug 2010). So the market is wary until various milestones have been reached-
> 1. Sale of Teresa
> 2. Commercial operation of UCG
> 3. Positive result with gas flow in Alaska
> 4. EOR operation producing oil in US
> 5. Contracts signed for GTL module construction with acceptable fixed price.
> 6. The above will lead to sustainable operating profits
> 7. Siteing and completion of GTL plant in situ.
> 
> Most of these are targetted for completion this year and if they are achieved the S/P could hit the $10 mark. RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) Morgans says $7.89 if the above are realised plus valuation of the other Qld coal asset @ $500M.
> 
> If the oil price keeps rising the S/P could go higher.
> 
> All this IMHO. I'm not an advisor and accept no liability
> 
> PS I last topped up in June 2010 at around $1 and wished I bought more with gearing.




Thanks Mickel, I have a lot of confidence in Linc and agree with your comments and I think it was Atomic who also said until we see some production then the SP will linger on.  We just need some momentum to build and the positive news to continue to flow and this stock will keep moving up.  There are far more positive reasons then negative reasons to hold this stock and with lots of cash in the coffers the long term outlook is fantastic.  
Do your own due diligence and glta holders.


----------



## basilio

LNC's 6 month report came out today.  Certainly impressive with large holdings in coal and oil assets as well as cash in the bank.

Also interesting was the announcement that LNC had purchased a 10% stake in Powerhouse Energy PLC.  The company has developed a number of technologies to turn waste and biomass into energy with zero emissions. One of their processes  utilizes syngas so I guess that is how LNC wants to be involved. 

I suspect that LNC's involvement could be a good boost to Powerhouse's eventual float.

http://phe.live.irmau.com/irm/content/home.html Link to Powerhouse website

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...e.ac?code=lnc&submit=Go&section=summary&f=pdf Link to 6 month LNC report


----------



## Slipperz

basilio said:


> LNC's 6 month report came out today.  Certainly impressive with large holdings in coal and oil assets as well as cash in the bank.
> 
> Also interesting was the announcement that LNC had purchased a 10% stake in Powerhouse Energy PLC.  The company has developed a number of technologies to turn waste and biomass into energy with zero emissions. One of their processes  utilizes syngas so I guess that is how LNC wants to be involved.
> 
> I suspect that LNC's involvement could be a good boost to Powerhouse's eventual float.
> 
> http://phe.live.irmau.com/irm/content/home.html Link to Powerhouse website
> 
> http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...e.ac?code=lnc&submit=Go&section=summary&f=pdf Link to 6 month LNC report




Yes the report made for very good reading. Nice to see LNC with a bit of moolah at last after all the delays with the coal sale and associated dilutionary cap raisings.

No mention made of progress at Ackarinka re the GTL plant??????

This is really the company maker and all the rest is just small change.

Any thoughts anyone.

Just an an aside I'm out at the moment but watching with very keen interest


----------



## Mickel

Slipperz said:


> Yes the report made for very good reading. Nice to see LNC with a bit of moolah at last after all the delays with the coal sale and associated dilutionary cap raisings.
> 
> No mention made of progress at Ackarinka re the GTL plant??????
> 
> This is really the company maker and all the rest is just small change.
> 
> Any thoughts anyone.
> 
> Just an an aside I'm out at the moment but watching with very keen interest




As far as I'm aware there was never going to be a GTL plant in the Arckaringa basin. They were hoping to site the 1st GTL plant at Oorroo in the Walloway Basin and still might. The problem was some subsidence at the initial area they selected. They are/have drilled at another site adjacent to Oorroo but this has delayed their plans and the 1st GTL plant may be in Wyoming depending on the swiftness of the permitting.

While the GTL business is the "icing on the cake", the EOR is NOT "small change" as you put it. It can earn LNC billions of $$$, especially if ,as PB stated at the last AGM, they roll out another EOR oil field every quarter once they are set up with the cheapest production of CO2.

If "I'm out at the moment" refers to you not holding  LNC shares currently and you believe in the company, I suggest you buy sooner rather than later. The dip today is a good buying opportunity as once the Teresa coal sale is announced, I doubt that the S/P will be below $3.00.

Again IMHO.


----------



## dogeatdog

I agree with you Mickel, regarding owning some Linc shares.
It appears like myself, you were an early entrant, so probably got in below A$1, and topped up further along the way.
For new comers, this has proved to be such a volatile stock, it doesn't inspire confidence to buy and hold, when the sp is hovering in it's current range.
It's a great stock to day trade both long and short.
Personaly I intend to keep all the shares I picked up mid last year, for the long term, and, continue to use cfd's to speculate a wee bit.


----------



## Slipperz

Mickel said:


> As far as I'm aware there was never going to be a GTL plant in the Arckaringa basin. They were hoping to site the 1st GTL plant at Oorroo in the Walloway Basin and still might. The problem was some subsidence at the initial area they selected. They are/have drilled at another site adjacent to Oorroo but this has delayed their plans and the 1st GTL plant may be in Wyoming depending on the swiftness of the permitting.
> 
> While the GTL business is the "icing on the cake", the EOR is NOT "small change" as you put it. It can earn LNC billions of $$$, especially if ,as PB stated at the last AGM, they roll out another EOR oil field every quarter once they are set up with the cheapest production of CO2.
> 
> If "I'm out at the moment" refers to you not holding  LNC shares currently and you believe in the company, I suggest you buy sooner rather than later. The dip today is a good buying opportunity as once the Teresa coal sale is announced, I doubt that the S/P will be below $3.00.
> 
> Again IMHO.




Thanks for that Mickel. My memory on the GTL plant was a bit fuzzy but it was the thought of a 10000 BPD GTL plant that got me interested in the LNC story from the get go.

I guess my point was it almost seems to have fallen by the wayside with the myriad of other projects LNC is now engaged in.

If they all come to fruition well and good but given the delays involved with the coal asset sale and the commissioning of the GTL plant I wonder how much money will be frittered away before a solid revenue stream is generated?

Haven't sasol in SA had a plant running for years?


----------



## Mickel

Slipperz said:


> Thanks for that Mickel. My memory on the GTL plant was a bit fuzzy but it was the thought of a 10000 BPD GTL plant that got me interested in the LNC story from the get go.
> 
> I guess my point was it almost seems to have fallen by the wayside with the myriad of other projects LNC is now engaged in.
> 
> If they all come to fruition well and good but given the delays involved with the coal asset sale and the commissioning of the GTL plant I wonder how much money will be frittered away before a solid revenue stream is generated?
> 
> Haven't sasol in SA had a plant running for years?




Hi Slipperz

Yes, the initial focus was the GTL (20,000bpd) plant that was to cost $800M to $1B but delays in permitting initially in Qld and then the rising CapEx together with the drawn out coal sale process certainly put a dampener on the GTL.

However, it's not all bad news as LNC continued with their research and many improvements have been made. If they'd built the GTL plant even in 2010 (initially it was to be in 2009) it would have been a lot less efficient than it will be in 2011/2012.

Regarding Sasol in Sth Africa, they have had GTL since the 1960's but they mine the coal , bring it to the surface and then burn it before the syngas goes through the GTL plant, a much more expensive process.

Another point is that Shell is building a GTL plant in the Middle East and the Capex is way over budget. This is the main reason that PB wants a fixed price module and the smaller capacity assists in this regard (easier to track any faults in the commissioning).

Even with the increased capex, with all the improvements in the last 2 yrs, the GTL process will still be very profitable.

In the meantime, LNC has another very profitable string to its bow with EOR where they can exploit their advantage with cheap CO2.

AND of course further coal sales.


----------



## Jonathan111

Met with PB and Abe in Sydney Diesel Dash 

PB is  very approachable, open and easy to talk to.

I had quite a few beers by the end of the night,  so he might have said, dont quote me on this.. 


19.x km during good driving and
17.x km during accelaration, wet weather.

Performance was spectacular. Better than anticipated. Carrying 2 passengers, sometimes 3.

Car has NOT been touched with a spanner.

Hoping to fly a jet in months time.

Landline and Channel 7 to cover.

Very clean diesel, similar to rentech, Syntroleum

Can get an oil well permitted in Wyoming in 6 weeks.

Can get an oil well permitted in Alaska in 6.5 weeks.

North America, India, South Africa

Coal is the hotest energy source at the moment, more so than oil.

India will be or is 150 million tonnes coal under, indian countries built power stations without coal supply.

China, Japan the usual suspects will need to buy.

Rancher paid 73mill + 10m on reports and exploration. 3 -4 studies done. Our guys have gone over it. Big value, couple a hundread barrells, with further enhancement 500 bpd, UCG C02 in the thousands, ramp up to 10000 - 20000, 6 - 12 months.

Carbon tax wont effect us, currently does not look like it is an issue around the world.

Arkaringa could be quick cash flow, could be billions if oil is found

There was also talk about natural gas in alaska, three good metered readings of 1000. 
Good wells can be 300 - 400.. Not sure what this measurement was though, and heavy i think heavyest mud had to be used to close it up

Long permitting times in aus approx 2 years for a gtl plant, another 2 yrs to build gtl, imo they will look overseas first, maybe africa has shorter permiting time..



*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-with-3-to-4-groups-for-teresa-coal-sale.html*


----------



## basilio

Lovely work Jonathan!!   

It is interesting to hear the comments about the seemingly excellent qualities of LNC's diesel fuel.  I think it would be well worth LNC having some independent tests undertaken to verify this because it could certainly be worth a real premium in the market place.

Any it certainly wouldn't hurt publicity for the company.

The comments about coal suggest the sale for Teresa will be a full market price - perhaps even better per tonne than last years coup. It would be interesting hear how the extra drills have affected the reserves and asking price.

The EOR projects look like pure gold. I can't see any significant technical challenges - just a very big jump in oil production at a historically high price.

I am still amazed that LNC is still at (IMO) a ridiculously low SP. Why it hasn't been targeted by any number of thinking funds as a worthwhile punt is just beyond me.  

But perhaps I have answered my own query.


----------



## Mickel

Yes. Great work Jonathan.

Did PB say anything specific about Africa (given that we are aware of the recent job adds) ?


----------



## Mickel

Further to my recent post where I referred to a Shell GTL plant in the Mid East, here is a recent article which indicates they are requiring changes to the plant before commissioning. I have read where its completion date was to be 2010.

"Shell taps Kentz for engineering work at Pearl GTL plant in Qatar

January 7, 2011

Source: Kentz

Kentz Corporation Limited (LSE: KENZ) has been awarded a Framework Agreement to provide services in executing Plant Change Requests by Qatar Shell GTL Limited. 

Under the Framework Agreement, Kentz will provide engineering design, construction supervision and procurement services for plant changes and projects at Pearl Gas to Liquids (GTL) plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar, as well as to its offshore platforms, harbor tank farms, offloading jetties and connecting infrastructure.

The duration of the contract is for three years with a two year extension option. The services will be executed in the Kentz Doha office using existing multidiscipline engineering teams, project management and project services resources.

Pearl GTL is the largest GTL project in the world and is being jointly developed by Qatar Petroleum (QP) and Shell. At peak production the facility will produce 140,000 bbl/d of high quality GTL fuels and products and 120,000 boe/d of natural gas liquids and ethane from two trains. 

This latest award follows Kentz's successful completion of a number of multi-million contracts over the past five years on the Pearl GTL Project. These contracts have encompassed all three of Kentz's Global Business Units; Specialist Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC), Construction, and Technical Support Services. 

Hugh O'Donnell, the chief executive of Kentz, commented: "Having been involved in this world scale project from initial site works through to current commissioning activities, we are delighted to continue working with Shell in the operational and maintenance phase of the project with brown field engineering services over the coming years." 

Kentz is currently working with Shell on projects in Qatar as well as elsewhere in the Middle East, Russia and Europe."

http://www.pennenergy.com/index/art...-taps_kentz_for.QP129867.dcmp=rss.page=1.html

I should point out that they are using gas not coal as their source fuel.


----------



## Jonathan111

Mickel said:


> Yes. Great work Jonathan.
> 
> Did PB say anything specific about Africa (given that we are aware of the recent job adds) ?




Hi Mickel ,

PB did not give much out on South Africa, he did say something like they were looking into South Africa. imo the permiting time for a GTL plant may be shorter there. He said the will be an annoucement out soon.


I asked PB about EOR, and issues with C02 leaking, and he explained to me how the CO2 acts when it is pumped into the well and that it gets under the oil, some is trapped and some comes back up with the oil to be reused again. 
So i think most of it is trapped in the well.


cetane of the syn diesel is 77-78 vs 52 for norm diesel 


http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/adani-joins-the-fray-for-abbot-point/story-fn6ck2gb-1226017997702


----------



## namrog

I can't understand at this time, why there continues to be so little buying interest in linc.

It's a complete head scratcher as far as I'm concerned, when considering the ammount of publicity that the dash to perth would be expected to generate, indeed todays performance is seriously dissapointing with the shareprice loosing almost 2 percent on very decent volume.....

In the past, most of my concerns revolved around the production of diesel, both the quantity and quality of what was being produced at the demo plant, and even though these issues have not been resolved and explained in lay mans language to my satisfaction , the simple reality that there are at least pictures of the diesel, relieves some of the doubt, though not all, and still the quantity produced needs to be clarified.

As far as I can see, the way things stand politically in queensland and Australia generally, along with the current situation in Africa albeit a different part of that continent, It wouldn't surprise at all to see the first gtl commercial plant in the US, and that would be a shame for Australia...

Here's hopeing that the share price will soon reflect the reality of Linc energy...


----------



## dogeatdog

namrog said:


> I can't understand at this time, why there continues to be so little buying interest in linc.
> 
> It's a complete head scratcher as far as I'm concerned, when considering the ammount of publicity that the dash to perth would be expected to generate, indeed todays performance is seriously dissapointing with the shareprice loosing almost 2 percent on very decent volume.....
> 
> In the past, most of my concerns revolved around the production of diesel, both the quantity and quality of what was being produced at the demo plant, and even though these issues have not been resolved and explained in lay mans language to my satisfaction , the simple reality that there are at least pictures of the diesel, relieves some of the doubt, though not all, and still the quantity produced needs to be clarified.
> 
> As far as I can see, the way things stand politically in queensland and Australia generally, along with the current situation in Africa albeit a different part of that continent, It wouldn't surprise at all to see the first gtl commercial plant in the US, and that would be a shame for Australia...
> 
> Here's hopeing that the share price will soon reflect the reality of Linc energy...




Hey Namrog.
Check out page 89 and 90.
Some interesting technical insight, and opinions from Mexican, and MR Z. 
"Patience is a virtue" as they say.
Once PB starts to deliver on all the promises, Linc will create great share holder value. (IMHO)
We must hope for a peaceful settlement in the middle east, and avoid a downward correction in the global markets of course.
Personally, these current dips in the linc sp, offer a wonderful opportunity to buy more shares


----------



## basilio

> Personally, these current dips in the linc sp, offer a wonderful opportunity to buy more shares




And arn't there some wonderful buying opportunities at the moment...  Let's just hope the "opportunities" don't get better..


----------



## namrog

dogeatdog said:


> Hey Namrog.
> Check out page 89 and 90.
> Some interesting technical insight, and opinions from Mexican, and MR Z.
> "Patience is a virtue" as they say.
> Once PB starts to deliver on all the promises, Linc will create great share holder value. (IMHO)
> We must hope for a peaceful settlement in the middle east, and avoid a downward correction in the global markets of course.
> Personally, these current dips in the linc sp, offer a wonderful opportunity to buy more shares




Thanks dogeatdog, I'm aware enough of the technical picture, at the moment it's pretty simple as far as I'm concerned, under 2-55= down hard, over 3-05 = up hard...

Not a good day for linc so far again today, down around another 3 %   

In some ways the problems in the middle east should be good for the linc share price, but I do understand  that when general market sentiment wanes that nothing is spared, so it's a wait and see situation..

I should declare that I'm not holding LNC at the moment, and personally would rather see it clear $3-10 before re-entering, I expect it would then get to $3-40 and onto $5 rather quickly, better that than see a big market crash that many are predicting...!

So it's sit and wait......


----------



## dogeatdog

namrog said:


> Thanks dogeatdog, I'm aware enough of the technical picture, at the moment it's pretty simple as far as I'm concerned, under 2-55= down hard, over 3-05 = up hard...
> 
> Not a good day for linc so far again today, down around another 3 %
> 
> In some ways the problems in the middle east should be good for the linc share price, but I do understand  that when general market sentiment wanes that nothing is spared, so it's a wait and see situation..
> 
> I should declare that I'm not holding LNC at the moment, and personally would rather see it clear $3-10 before re-entering, I expect it would then get to $3-40 and onto $5 rather quickly, better that than see a big market crash that many are predicting...!
> 
> So it's sit and wait......




Fully understand where your coming from Namrog.
Tentative times indeed.

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

LNC has just formally announced it's investment and arrangements with Powerhouse Energy.  This company appears to have developed a very cost effective above ground gasification unit that can turn mined coal into syngas with very little CO2 production and other valuable improvments.

They are buying in 10% of the company and also gaining rights to sell the unit around the world. Suddenly clean coal might not be such an oxy moron.

If this is as good as it looks this will be another  huge step to utilzing LNCs coal assets in an environmentally sustainable way(and making a decent dollar...)

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc&f=pdf

_____________________________________________________

Mr Market obviously didn't like the news  LNC down to $2.61!!


----------



## Calliope

basilio said:


> Mr Market obviously didn't like the news  LNC down to $2.61!!




Hopefully that's the bottom.  I bought back in at $2.62.


----------



## namrog

basilio said:


> LNC has just formally announced it's investment and arrangements with Powerhouse Energy.  This company appears to have developed a very cost effective above ground gasification unit that can turn mined coal into syngas with very little CO2 production and other valuable improvments.
> 
> They are buying in 10% of the company and also gaining rights to sell the unit around the world. Suddenly clean coal might not be such an oxy moron.
> 
> If this is as good as it looks this will be another  huge step to utilzing LNCs coal assets in an environmentally sustainable way(and making a decent dollar...)
> 
> http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc&f=pdf
> 
> _____________________________________________________
> 
> Mr Market obviously didn't like the news  LNC down to $2.61!!




That's a pretty interesting move from Linc, looks like a very cheap investment with lots of potential upside, would certainly side step a lot of environmental issues that are currently holding a commercial opperation back...

Perhaps the coal tennements won't be sold after all...

Powerhouse looks like it could be worth chasing on its own, does anyone know if it's possible to be involved from Australia ..?


----------



## Mickel

With some contributors to this thread currently not holders of LNC, I pose the following for comment-

1. You believe that LNC will be profitable within 2 years and continue long term

2. More than 1 T/A's views have stated that there is strong support around $2.50- $2.60

3. You have "x" to invest, probably in LNC

then 

Why wouldn't you invest 1/2 "x" at around $2.60

then if
(a) LNC s/p subsequently falls, buy 1/4 "x"around next support level and then further consider the last 1/4 investment. In this case there would probably be a major market correction.

(b) LNC s/p  hovers around $2.60- $3.00 until the coal sale announcement then jumps to say $3.50 (perhaps over a few days). You then buy 1/2 "x" as quickly and as cheaply as you can.

Either way, you are better off than waiting until the S/P is over $3.00 IMHO

Any comments ?

LNC holder

PS LNC S/P currently $2.62


----------



## namrog

Mickel said:


> With some contributors to this thread currently not holders of LNC, I pose the following for comment-
> 
> 1. You believe that LNC will be profitable within 2 years and continue long term
> 
> 2. More than 1 T/A's views have stated that there is strong support around $2.50- $2.60
> 
> 3. You have "x" to invest, probably in LNC
> 
> then
> 
> Why wouldn't you invest 1/2 "x" at around $2.60
> 
> then if
> (a) LNC s/p subsequently falls, buy 1/4 "x"around next support level and then further consider the last 1/4 investment. In this case there would probably be a major market correction.
> 
> (b) LNC s/p  hovers around $2.60- $3.00 until the coal sale announcement then jumps to say $3.50 (perhaps over a few days). You then buy 1/2 "x" as quickly and as cheaply as you can.
> 
> Either way, you are better off than waiting until the S/P is over $3.00 IMHO
> 
> Any comments ?
> 
> LNC holder
> 
> PS LNC S/P currently $2.62






Mickel, I dont know if this is directed at me or not , but I will answer anyway...

1.    I don't know , if you mean that they will have a commercial CTL plant built in two years , or if the oil or gas opperations are online by then, then yes there is every reason to believe that the company will be profitable long term.. 
But two years ago I was thinking there would be a CTL plant opperational by now, so who really knows..however, I do expect that sometime in the future that Linc will be a profitable energy produser, but when ??

2.   You don't have to be an expert in TA to see strong support around $2-55 but that will matter little if the global situation deterioriates and markets crash, the reason it's at $2-62 today has nothing to do with the company, but everything to do with current market sentiment, and whilst the crash of 2008 when the SP dropped from $5 to $1 is unlikely to be repeated right now, I still think it's not the time to be buying, but that's a personal thing..which leads to point 3

3. In my oppinion there is nothing wrong with the strategy of averaging in that you have explained, providing there is a bottom line, indeed I did this exact thing with Linc during the period 2009 to mid 2010, buying at 1-75,  1-50, and  1-25 , this was based soly on the coal assets that were for sale at the time, but It's not the sort of thing I would do often, it can be argued and there's no denying that Linc are in a much better position now than then , and a shareprice under $2-50 even in a dire market, would be a short lived experience..it's just that I'm playing it a bit safer these days.. 
Having said that, there is a level not a million miles lower than where we are, when it would be hard to not buy some, and maybe average up from there...

I guess it boils down to ones personal style of trading / investing...


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/analysts_reports/LNC-Analysts-Report-16.pdf

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/LNC.ASX RPT Feb 9 2011.pdf

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-597.pdf


----------



## Mickel

Hi Namrog

I wasn't directing my previous post to anyone in particular, just a general observation. If I wasn't fully invested in LNC, that would be my strategy. I note that you would consider the same again if the S/P fell further.

Regarding having the GTL plant producing, in my view everything would have to go to plan for it to be up and running within 2 years.

However the EOR is a different matter. Considering the following that PB has stated at various times-

1. they are planning to produce their own CO2 by end calender 2011
2. before that they will buy CO2 for EOR
3. they take full control of the Rancher oil field at the end of this month
4. they estimate production of 10,000 to 20,000 bpd from Rancher with EOR
5. they estimate production costs with their own CO2 of $40 pb
6. Rancher has about 100 M barrels, not all recoverable but LNC will be after most
7. PB said once they started they would be planning for a new EOR oil field each quarter

I consider that this is achievable-

1. Production of 10,000 bpd (from Rancher) from July 2011 for 350 days in 11/12 F/Y
2. Average  cost of $50 pb (taking into account buying CO2 for up to 6 mths)
3. Average price of oil for 11/12 F/Y $100 pb (USD and AUD)

so earnings 11/12 F/Y = 10,000 x 350 x $100  = $350 M - production costs $175M  = $175M deduct further $25M for contingencies and we still have $150M EBIT.

Then in F/Y 12/13 if they only add 2 new fields (not 4 as planned) with  oil at $85 pb and costs at $45pb, the  equation is-
30,000 x 350 x $40 (operating profit) =  $420M less say $70M for contingencies = $350M EBIT

OR

if they can extract 15,000 bpd from all fields= $525M EBIT

Then in F/Y 13/14 if they add another 3 fields (not 4 as planned) with the same costs  & oil price as the previous year the EBIT doubles ie-

$700M EBIT at 10,000 bpd at each oil field and $1050M at 15,000 bpd

Not bad for an operation that wasn't even considered 18 months ago by LNC

All IMHO


----------



## namrog

Mickel said:


> Hi Namrog
> 
> I wasn't directing my previous post to anyone in particular, just a general observation. If I wasn't fully invested in LNC, that would be my strategy. I note that you would consider the same again if the S/P fell further.
> 
> Regarding having the GTL plant producing, in my view everything would have to go to plan for it to be up and running within 2 years.
> 
> However the EOR is a different matter. Considering the following that PB has stated at various times-
> 
> 1. they are planning to produce their own CO2 by end calender 2011
> 2. before that they will buy CO2 for EOR
> 3. they take full control of the Rancher oil field at the end of this month
> 4. they estimate production of 10,000 to 20,000 bpd from Rancher with EOR
> 5. they estimate production costs with their own CO2 of $40 pb
> 6. Rancher has about 100 M barrels, not all recoverable but LNC will be after most
> 7. PB said once they started they would be planning for a new EOR oil field each quarter
> 
> I consider that this is achievable-
> 
> 1. Production of 10,000 bpd (from Rancher) from July 2011 for 350 days in 11/12 F/Y
> 2. Average  cost of $50 pb (taking into account buying CO2 for up to 6 mths)
> 3. Average price of oil for 11/12 F/Y $100 pb (USD and AUD)
> 
> so earnings 11/12 F/Y = 10,000 x 350 x $100  = $350 M - production costs $175M  = $175M deduct further $25M for contingencies and we still have $150M EBIT.
> 
> Then in F/Y 12/13 if they only add 2 new fields (not 4 as planned) with  oil at $85 pb and costs at $45pb, the  equation is-
> 30,000 x 350 x $40 (operating profit) =  $420M less say $70M for contingencies = $350M EBIT
> 
> OR
> 
> if they can extract 15,000 bpd from all fields= $525M EBIT
> 
> Then in F/Y 13/14 if they add another 3 fields (not 4 as planned) with the same costs  & oil price as the previous year the EBIT doubles ie-
> 
> $700M EBIT at 10,000 bpd at each oil field and $1050M at 15,000 bpd
> 
> Not bad for an operation that wasn't even considered 18 months ago by LNC
> 
> All IMHO




Mmmm,, you do paint a nice picture Mickel....

Off hand, what is the asset backing per share now...?


----------



## Mickel

namrog said:


> Mmmm,, you do paint a nice picture Mickel....
> 
> Off hand, what is the asset backing per share now...?




From the 1/2 yearly report Net Assets are about $531M or approx $1 per share.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-320.pdf

I believe the recent RBS Morgans analyst report has a "sum of the parts risked valuation" of Net Present Value of $3.25 per share which includes a derisked valuation of $447M for Teresa and values the Galilee royalty at $305M.

Regarding Analyst Reports, it appears from recent posts on the Analyst Reports section on the LNC website, that they will release various reports one month after publication. So the RBS Morgans recent report should be released in early April.


----------



## dogeatdog

The last few "Diesel Dash" clips, make for interesting viewing.
Good to see various politicians putting in positive comments.
http://www.lincenergy.com/linc_vodcasts.php 

Couldn't resist having a further nibble at 2.52 this morning.


----------



## dogeatdog

What a roller coaster ride. Just hit 2.37


----------



## dogeatdog

More coverage on the "Diesel Dash".
http://www.brr.com.au/event/77527/partner/theaustralian


----------



## dogeatdog

Interesting how folk have been quiet here for the past few days. 
In shock maybe?
Been wonderful to trade Linc in the recent days, for the brave 
Choppy times ahead.

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

The whole market has been challenging.. Great bounce back today but really LNC should be at $3.00 waiting for another $500m + coal sale to send it to $3.80 ..

I don't think the Japanese situation is in any way resolved. I fear it has a lot more damage to play out and that  the world financial structures  and obviously the stock markets will be in for a major correction.

The question will be whether LNC has sufficient fundamental value to absorb the drama and exit as a profitable and successful energy company. ??


----------



## basilio

Something  very interesting is happening with LNC.

There is currently a couple of huge buy orders (around 450,000 shares) at $2.84 and  $2.76  effectively soaking up some other fairly determined sellers at $2.42 and $2.44. A

If these wern't there LNC would like like opening at least 20c lower.

Let's see where this goes.


----------



## brty

This is not just happening to LNC. It appears in many stocks I have looked at this morning.

My suspicion is that most of those large orders will be pulled by opening.

brty


----------



## Mickel

Interesting presentation given by Justyn Peters on 10th March-
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Presentation-599.pdf

Page 4 includes "Two other non‐core coal assets for sale for approx $A1 Billion to have $A1.5 Billion by the end of the year". Apart from Teresa the other coal asset appears to be NW of Hughenden of which we have heard very little.

Pages 19 to 21 cover EOR including this on page 21-

"Linc Energy aims to supply 2 or 3 EOR fields in the next 12 – 18 months to produce approximately 10,000 barrels/day.

• EOR oil production costs = $30‐$35/barrel

• 10,000 bpd production equates to $180– $200 Million EBITDA

• Linc Energy’s five year plan is to have over 100,000 bpd EOR oil production"

I've extrapolated the numbers in a previous post. In this instance they have reduced the production costs. 
Suffice to say, if in 5 years they are producing 100,000 bpd at the quoted costs, the EBITDA will be up to $2 BILLION.


----------



## Jonathan111

_“I’m absolutely confident within five years, you will be able to buy Linc diesel at the bowser.”






...



Speaking on the company’s South Australian UCG play, Bond said he had just received the prefeasibility
report for power generation and it would take a month to read and decide what the next
step was, and when to take it.


...

He noted that while the current demonstration plant at Chinchilla, Queensland, was only capable of
producing a couple of thousand litres of diesel per day, Linc was planning to build a modular plant
capable of producing 5000-6000 barrels per day once it received approval from state government._


Not sure if the last point is actually, a couple of litres, or couple of hundread, or really thousands... Maybe they mean expandable to:

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-604.pdf



http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-601.pdf


http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Media_Coverage-600.pdf


----------



## Mickel

Jonathan111 said:


> _“I’m absolutely confident within five years, you will be able to buy Linc diesel at the bowser.”
> 
> "He noted that while the current demonstration plant at Chinchilla, Queensland, was only capable of producing a couple of thousand litres of diesel per day, Linc was planning to build a modular plant capable of producing 5000-6000 barrels per day once it received approval from state government."
> 
> 
> Not sure if the last point is actually, a couple of litres, or couple of hundread, or really thousands... Maybe they mean expandable to:_



_

Hi Jonathan

Thanks for sourcing those articles.

I think he DID mean "a couple of thousand litres".

The demo plant was initially said to be capable of producing 5-10 barrels per day. At 159L per barrel, 10 barrels is 1590L. With all the improvements since Oct 2008 on the UCG and GTL, it wouldn't surprise if they can now produce 12.5 bpd which would be approx 2000L.

At the Brisbane function for the Diesel Dash PB mentioned it will take 2 yrs for permitting for both UCG and GTL combined. So he's given himself some leeway in saying Linc Diesel will be sold at pumps in Aust within 5 years._


----------



## Atomic

Atomic said:


> So where else too from here on in ,
> Will we see a supply chain of fuel ststions throughout USA Canada with direct to the consumer poduct ? So premium disel for Jet FUEL only, cuts out a huge supply potenial
> By adding a service chain (petrol stations) this will cut out the middle man and the true refining margin will be realised.
> 
> So far this company has'nt stopped surprising me with their achievments and insight.
> 
> This is the greener fuel for the next ?




Maybe i should be working for LINC. 

This move really excites me , as the real value to lnc and shareholders will skyrocket.
Now when/if we see PB buying up corn fields to produce methanol (e10 or whatever ya call it)  more cost savings and broader retail/customer base will open up.
The cost savings from linc diesel to produce methanol , then throw in the expanding retail market base , possibly then refine corn stalks into aboe ground non-food biomass gas generation and Kaching $$$$$$    
So the story of LNC evolves

Atomic


----------



## Jonathan111

We are going to have offices in South Africa joburg, poland, hungry, budapest, india mumbai, shang hai china

http://www.akrdc.org/membership/events/breakfast/1011/031711.html

Linc Energy: Our Plans For Alaska

Paul Ludwig, Stakeholders Relations Manager,
Linc Energy Operations Inc.

Hi Mickel,

Ah yes, I read somewhere that they were producing 20bpd, which would be 159L x 20, which would be over 3000L per day.. got mixed up with the barrels and litres.

Cheers,
Jonathan


Methanol..
Is this another byproduct from the process?


----------



## Jonathan111

The largest use of methanol by far is in making other chemicals. About 40% of methanol is converted to formaldehyde, and from there into products as diverse as plastics, plywood, paints, explosives, and permanent press textiles.


Methanol is used on a limited basis to fuel internal combustion engines. Pure methanol is required by rule to be used in Champcars, Monster Trucks, USAC sprint cars (as well as midgets, modifieds, etc.), and other dirt track series such as World of Outlaws, and Motorcycle Speedway. Methanol is also used, as the primary fuel ingredient since the late 1940s, in the powerplants for radio control, control line and free flight airplanes (as methanol is required in the "glow-plug" engines that primarily power them), cars and trucks, from such an engine's use of a platinum filament glow plug being able to ignite the methanol vapor through a catalytic reaction. Drag racers and mud racers also use methanol as their primary fuel source, as well as heavily modified Tractor Pullers. 

Methanol has a high toxicity in humans. If ingested, as little as 10 mL can cause permanent blindness by destruction of the optic nerve and 30 mL is potentially fatal,[


Methanol is readily biodegradable in both aerobic (oxygen present) and anaerobic (oxygen absent) environments. Methanol will not persist in the environment. The "half-life" for methanol in groundwater is just one to seven days, while many common gasoline components have half-lives in the hundreds of days (such as benzene at 10–730 days). Since methanol is miscible with water and biodegradable, methanol is unlikely to accumulate in groundwater, surface water, air or soil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanol


----------



## Mickel

Jonathan111 said:


> We are going to have offices in South Africa joburg, poland, hungry, budapest, india mumbai, shang hai china
> 
> http://www.akrdc.org/membership/events/breakfast/1011/031711.html
> 
> Linc Energy: Our Plans For Alaska
> 
> Paul Ludwig, Stakeholders Relations Manager,
> Linc Energy Operations Inc.
> 
> Hi Mickel,
> 
> Ah yes, I read somewhere that they were producing 20bpd, which would be 159L x 20, which would be over 3000L per day.. got mixed up with the barrels and litres.
> 
> Cheers,
> Jonathan
> 
> 
> Methanol..
> Is this another byproduct from the process?




Well done again Jonathan on sourcing this presentation.

In it Paul Ludwig mentioned that the London office was opened 2 weeks ago.
He also mentioned LNC's interest in Louisiana and possibly opening an office there. No doubt they would be looking for depleted oil fields and probably some deep coal deposits there to expand their EOR operations.

He outlined 3 phases for operations in Wyoming-

1st phase being a trial UCG phase commencing probably 2nd half of 2011 to last 12mths. This would include 3mth continuous UCG production, then shut down the process, analyse the results and document everything for regulators.

2nd phase. Providing they have regulator approval, they would then have commercial UCG production commencing in the 2nd half of 2012.

3rd phase would probably be GTL which Paul indictated was the preferred option in Wyoming. No direct planned start up time was stated for this phase.

So earlier statements of producing CO2 for EOR by end of calender 2011 may not be achieved unless they can use the CO2 from the trial UCG operation.

The overall situation should be much clearer by the end of this F/Y.

Waiting..waiting.. for news of the Teresa coal tenement sale...


----------



## dogeatdog

A saying comes to mind, "walk before you run".
I wonder if Linc are expanding too quickly?

PB reminds me very much of Sir Richard Branson, in the early days of building his "Virgin" empire. They even share a similar appearance 

The recent "Diesel dash" appears to have achieved it's goal in terms of marketing exposure. A US version with a little more razzmatazz to follow maybe 
(All IMHO)

It's been a hectic week for the sp. Personally I enjoy the volatility, it obviously creates lots of money making/losing opportunities.
Considering all the crap going on out there, the closing price seems reasonable.

Pleasant weekend people.


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> A saying comes to mind, "walk before you run".
> I wonder if Linc are expanding too quickly?
> 
> PB reminds me very much of Sir Richard Branson, in the early days of building his "Virgin" empire. They even share a similar appearance
> 
> The recent "Diesel dash" appears to have achieved it's goal in terms of marketing exposure. A US version with a little more razzmatazz to follow maybe
> (All IMHO)
> 
> It's been a hectic week for the sp. Personally I enjoy the volatility, it obviously creates lots of money making/losing opportunities.
> Considering all the crap going on out there, the closing price seems reasonable.
> 
> Pleasant weekend people.




Hi Doggy

"Is LNC expanding too quickly?" They certainly are juggling many balls in the air at the moment.

On one hand they want to get all their assets (coal tenements and now depleted oil field assets) at a low price because once they start making large profits from these assets further coal tenements (deep coal) and depleted oil fields will be more expensive to obtain, perhaps much more expensive.

On the other hand, PB is very reluctant to raise more cash from share issues as it would dilute current shareholder value (and his controlling interest). He is also very aware that profitable commercial operations ASAP will give LNC a much stronger base. And the CAPEX for GTL is very large (ie around $1.6B for 4 x5000bpd).

IMHO these competing aims can be balanced by the following-

1. Sale of Teresa by June 2011 at the latest for $500M +
2. Profitable EOR operations by Dec 2011
3. Gearing of EOR expansion
4. Gearing/JV for GTL plant

and possibly

5. Sale of another coal tenement for around $500M.

Any comments ?


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Hi Doggy
> 
> "Is LNC expanding too quickly?" They certainly are juggling many balls in the air at the moment.
> 
> On one hand they want to get all their assets (coal tenements and now depleted oil field assets) at a low price because once they start making large profits from these assets further coal tenements (deep coal) and depleted oil fields will be more expensive to obtain, perhaps much more expensive.
> 
> On the other hand, PB is very reluctant to raise more cash from share issues as it would dilute current shareholder value (and his controlling interest). He is also very aware that profitable commercial operations ASAP will give LNC a much stronger base. And the CAPEX for GTL is very large (ie around $1.6B for 4 x5000bpd).
> 
> IMHO these competing aims can be balanced by the following-
> 
> 1. Sale of Teresa by June 2011 at the latest for $500M +
> 2. Profitable EOR operations by Dec 2011
> 3. Gearing of EOR expansion
> 4. Gearing/JV for GTL plant
> 
> and possibly
> 
> 5. Sale of another coal tenement for around $500M.
> 
> Any comments ?




Hey  Mickel.
My main concerns with some of the recent business proposals are:

Rapid expansion of worldwide work force. (Cash flow)

Future lack of political support in Aussie and the US, for UCG (Having won the bidding rights in Alaska)

Reliable source of CO2 for the EOR process (If not generated from Linc's in-house process)

Negative news from the Lea #1 gas drilling project.

Coal tenement sale structure, similar to the deal with Adani. (Limited cash up front)

Having said all that, I'm a firm believer in PB, and Linc


----------



## Jonathan111

Is this who Linc is teaming up with?



Linc Energy has signed an
international Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) with one of
india’s largest companies.

Linc Energy has entered into an
agreement with the Shiv-Vani Group,
based in new Delhi.

the MoU will provide for the
establishment of potential joint
ventures between Linc Energy Ltd
and Shiv-Vani.

Shiv-Vani is india’s largest non-
government oil, gas and exploration
drilling company.

the agreement is a coup for Linc
Energy, which plans to turn stranded
coal deposits into ultra clean diesel by
bringing together two proven production
processes – UCG clean coal technology
and Gas to Liquids (GtL).

“We are very excited about the
opportunities in india and the Sub
Continent that this MoU has the

potential to facilitate,” Linc Energy’s
Managing Director, Peter Bond, said.

“the MoU is for a period of *5 years*
and will allow us to investigate
opportunities to utilise our UCG and
clean coal technology processes in
india.

“india is one of the new economic
powerhouses in the world and we see
great application for our clean coal
technology and for the generation of
electricity linked to our UCG process”
.

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...HQPlSY&sig=AHIEtbQ7W1sRfMM9JytwPzrHepEG1qgHBA

http://www.shiv-vani.co.in/index.php?menu_id=7

signed in 2007


----------



## skivvy

Announcement today was fairly benign with only the completion of the purchase of the rancher acreage being the standout news from my perspective.  No little hints regarding the Theresa sale, so its slow and steady the sp goes.


----------



## dogeatdog

skivvy said:


> Announcement today was fairly benign with only the completion of the purchase of the rancher acreage being the standout news from my perspective.  No little hints regarding the Theresa sale, so its slow and steady the sp goes.




I'd say all positve news.
www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-322.pdf

Considering all the recent negative external news, the sp has held up well.
Hopefully a close above 2.90 by the weekend.


----------



## Jonathan111

There is going to be a special edition Investor Linc Newsletter in April..

Last time there was a special edition newsletter was last year, just after the ...


"_Linc Energy is in detailed discussions with several parties in relation to the sale of this coal asset, whilst continuing to assess all of its commercial options. Teresa is one of the few remaining PCI coal assets in the Bowen basin of this size and potential, which is also close to established infrastructure._"


----------



## basilio

Jonathan111 said:


> There is going to be a special edition Investor Linc Newsletter in April..
> 
> Last time there was a special edition newsletter was last year, just after the ...
> 
> 
> "_Linc Energy is in detailed discussions with several parties in relation to the sale of this coal asset, whilst continuing to assess all of its commercial options. Teresa is one of the few remaining PCI coal assets in the Bowen basin of this size and potential, which is also close to established infrastructure._"




That's a nice fat hint Jonathan..!! To be fair I think LNC suggested in February  and on other occasions that the completion of the Teresa coal sale was  marked for the first quarter of the year. We are getting nicely close to that.

*The fact is if/when this sale is closed it will mean at least another $500m in LNC's coffers which is another $1 per share*. The boost this offers to working capital is immense not to mention the opportunity to pick up more coal/oil resources. And we can legitimately expect that $50m of the sale will be earmarked for another 10c a share special dividend, The precedent has been set and in the overall scheme of things seems very legitimate.

I think this an excellent opportunity for the retail fund managers  to  get a position before  LNC hits the $4-4.50 mark that would reflect it's cash position, resource base and multiple earning options.


----------



## Jonathan111

basilio said:


> That's a nice fat hint Jonathan..!! To be fair I think LNC suggested in February  and on other occasions that the completion of the Teresa coal sale was  marked for the first quarter of the year. We are getting nicely close to that.
> 
> *The fact is if/when this sale is closed it will mean at least another $500m in LNC's coffers which is another $1 per share*. The boost this offers to working capital is immense not to mention the opportunity to pick up more coal/oil resources. And we can legitimately expect that $50m of the sale will be earmarked for another 10c a share special dividend, The precedent has been set and in the overall scheme of things seems very legitimate.
> 
> I think this an excellent opportunity for the retail fund managers  to  get a position before  LNC hits the $4-4.50 mark that would reflect it's cash position, resource base and multiple earning options.




Although the most recent presentation said Q2 from mem, and maybe the next dividend will be 10% (of all you earn is yours to keep), i think the value of Teresa has increased. What happend to pentland?
 Employee wages must be rising, cash needs to role in, how much will they get from current eor after paying for co2? 
Alaska must be warming up by now and they should be able to get on with the  lea 1 nat gas well soon


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> That's a nice fat hint Jonathan..!! To be fair I think LNC suggested in February  and on other occasions that the completion of the Teresa coal sale was  marked for the first quarter of the year. We are getting nicely close to that.
> 
> *The fact is if/when this sale is closed it will mean at least another $500m in LNC's coffers which is another $1 per share*. The boost this offers to working capital is immense not to mention the opportunity to pick up more coal/oil resources. And we can legitimately expect that $50m of the sale will be earmarked for another 10c a share special dividend, The precedent has been set and in the overall scheme of things seems very legitimate.
> 
> I think this an excellent opportunity for the retail fund managers  to  get a position before  LNC hits the $4-4.50 mark that would reflect it's cash position, resource base and multiple earning options.




Hi Bas

I agree with all of your points. 

From memory, Teresa has 200M tons of open cut and 200M tons of coking coal (not necessarily the same 200M tons). While not an expert by any means on coal, the fact that PB has an independant report on the value of PCI coal from Teresa, would suggest that the value of Teresa is above $500M, perhaps signifantly.

As I have said in a previous post, these sale funds will assist in expansion of EOR in particular (purchase of assets and operating costs-incl wages).

The 10c special dividend is almost a given (previously mentioned by PB) on the sale of Teresa.

And the sale should set a new higher base for the S/P.

For the record I list the dates of previous InvestorLinc editions-

Issue 8        Aug 08
''       9        Nov 08 "Diesel is flowing"
''      10       Dec 08
''      11       Mar 09
''      12       Jun 09
''      13       Sep 09
''      14       Dec 09
''      15       Mar 10
''      16       Aug/Sept 10 "First coal sale complete"
''      17       Dec 10


----------



## teabagger

What has happened to the intra day volatility. It,s Friday and I need some drinking cash!
This sitting between 2.87 & 2,90 for the last few days is too stable for LNC, something has to give


----------



## Mickel

Is BHP Billiton still in the running to buy "Teresa" ????

"A further $US5bn will be invested in three metallurgical coal projects in the Bowen Basin of central Queensland that will add 4.9 million tonnes of annual mine capacity and boost the capacity of the Hay Point Coal Terminal, BHP Billiton said."

It doesn't say if they are existing or new projects but BHP Billiton does have an existing mine adjacent to Teresa.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...t-in-was-pilbara/story-e6frg9df-1226027893569


----------



## Mickel

Very good rise in LNC S/P today- up 11c to $2.98. This is close to the 12 month high of $3.05.

From the latest ASX announcement on 23/3-

"Linc Energy is in detailed discussions with several parties in relation to the sale of this coal asset, whilst continuing to assess all of its commercial options. Teresa is one of the few remaining PCI coal assets in the Bowen basin of this size and potential, which is also close to established infrastructure."

It appears that the longer the potential buyers hesitate, the higher the final purchase price will be. Surely one buyer will bite the bullet soon?????


----------



## snowking

it was a very strong move yesterday on the back of a flat market. I think we saw similar things in the run up to the last sale. IMO we will hear something from Linc soon, the coal sector is very hot at the moment and you would imagine the interested parties would be wanting to take advantage of the current market prices sooner rather than later


----------



## dogeatdog

teabagger said:


> What has happened to the intra day volatility. It,s Friday and I need some drinking cash!
> This sitting between 2.87 & 2,90 for the last few days is too stable for LNC, something has to give




Seems your wish was granted today tea 

Apparently PB increased his personal holdings in the company.

LNC Holder.


----------



## Jonathan111

teabagger said:


> What has happened to the intra day volatility. It,s Friday and I need some drinking cash!
> This sitting between 2.87 & 2,90 for the last few days is too stable for LNC, something has to give




Drink tea instead.

PB may have $600m in holdings.., but this is a big investment in CASH $2.25m, it may be cash from his last dividend... How much does PB earn in cash income from his job? A$340,216? http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=25109860&ticker=LNC:US


----------



## basilio

Creative work by Peter Bond. Gives the market a decent shove (which doesn't hurt the value of his other 200m plus shares...) , sets himself up for an extra slice of  special dividend pie and *practically screams* at the market place that the next coal sale is just over the hill.

Nice work and certainly one of the more colourful  actions and announcements.

As a market analyst you would have to blind, deaf and dumb not to take notice of this action in the context of LNC's history.:


----------



## teabagger

dogeatdog said:


> Seems your wish was granted today tea
> 
> Apparently PB increased his personal holdings in the company.
> 
> LNC Holder.




Thanks Doggie.

Can't sell out now though, not with a lead like that from the big guy. Although, in relation to his existing holding this is relativly a small amount....must have found some change he left in ashtray of the VW during the Diesel dash.


----------



## dogeatdog

Good to see the sp hit $3 today. Surely a breach into $3 + soon.
Would be nice to see a percentage rise similar to that of Cougar's today 

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

dogeatdog said:


> Good to see the sp hit $3 today. Surely a breach into $3 + soon.
> Would be nice to see a percentage rise similar to that of Cougar's today
> 
> LNC holder.




That's really  sweet but Couger shareholders (grrrrrr...) have been basically hung drawn and quartered in the past few months. .7c rise after dropping from 12c plus to 1.5c ? Just an ugly, ugly set of figures and lot's of hope that some sort of phoenix might rise from the ashes.

I hope you weren't thinking that maybe LNC should drop to say 40c so it could make a jump to 60c  ? ( Of course not...!)


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> That's really  sweet but Couger shareholders (grrrrrr...) have been basically hung drawn and quartered in the past few months. .7c rise after dropping from 12c plus to 1.5c ? Just an ugly, ugly set of figures and lot's of hope that some sort of phoenix might rise from the ashes.
> 
> I hope you weren't thinking that maybe LNC should drop to say 40c so it could make a jump to 60c  ? ( Of course not...!)




I was suggesting a 40% rise in one day, would be rather pleasant for Linc holders.
I do hope your not one of the unfortunate Cougar share holders who've been "hung drawn and quartered" as you put it Bas.


----------



## basilio

dogeatdog said:


> I do hope your not one of the unfortunate Cougar share holders who've been "hung drawn and quartered" as you put it Bas.




Just a little character building learning experience..


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.lse.co.uk/regulatory-new...Proposed_acquisition_of_PowerHouse_Energy_Inc


_"PowerHouse has executed contracts for the following sales to date:



-        PowerHouse Energy Australia Pty Ltd - sale of a 5 tpd waste to energy system and a 25 tpd Pyromex UHTG reactor

-        *Linc Energy Ltd - sale of a 25tpd Pyromex UHTG reactor*

-        PowerHouse Energy New Zealand Ltd - sale of a 5 tpd waste to energy system


...


In March 2011, Linc Energy invested US$6 million and granted PowerHouse the right to purchase and use its Fischer-Tropsch GTL system technology for PowerHouse's waste to energy applications in return for a 10 per cent. interest in Pyromex. PowerHouse has granted Linc Energy a perpetual, exclusive licence to use, own, fabricate and operate Pyromex systems for above ground coal to syngas production of 1 MMcf per day and greater in all territories (with the exception of Italy which is excluded). Linc Energy will *pay a licence royalty of US$0.10 per barrel of Linc Energy's Pyromex-produced liquid *fuels generated by using the Pyromex system. 

...


The Enlarged Group's short term focus in the area of research and development will be *the development of a 100 tpd unit with the support of Linc Energy*, for whom this will be particularly applicable based on their substantial coal deposits."

_

I think TPD is refering to tonnes per day input.


----------



## Jonathan111

I wonder if PB has thought about Garbage to Diesel, gas and electricity, now that would really be turning something of no value in value..   I read in the above link this pyromex UHTG is self sufficent supplying itself with enough electricity to run itself.  Its probably heading off on too much of a tangent from the major goal of UCG-GTL.


_The Pyromex System

The Pyromex system enables localised low emission or emission free conversion (disposal) of waste materials with energy recovery rates of approximately 90 to 95 per cent. The system uses approximately 15 per cent. of the syngas as fuel to generate its own electrical power requirement, resulting in approximately 80 per cent. of the produced energy available for sale. No toxic or harmful residues are formed during the thermal reduction of the waste material into fuel energy._


I also wonder if Shale to Diesel would be profitable, and if the Exploration Licences in South Australia and USA include shale.


----------



## dogeatdog

Jonathan111 said:


> I wonder if PB has thought about Garbage to Diesel, gas and electricity, now that would really be turning something of no value in value..   I read in the above link this pyromex UHTG is self sufficent supplying itself with enough electricity to run itself.  Its probably heading off on too much of a tangent from the major goal of UCG-GTL.
> 
> 
> _The Pyromex System
> 
> The Pyromex system enables localised low emission or emission free conversion (disposal) of waste materials with energy recovery rates of approximately 90 to 95 per cent. The system uses approximately 15 per cent. of the syngas as fuel to generate its own electrical power requirement, resulting in approximately 80 per cent. of the produced energy available for sale. No toxic or harmful residues are formed during the thermal reduction of the waste material into fuel energy._
> 
> 
> I also wonder if Shale to Diesel would be profitable, and if the Exploration Licences in South Australia and USA include shale.




I believe Lincs 10% interest in AFC, based in the UK, are able to use land fill material etc, to create electricity. Not so sure they can produce liquid fuels.

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

Might be worth updating  some information on AFC's (Alkaline Fuel Cell) progress in UK.

LNC has  a 10% stake in the company and it represents an outstanding opportunity to utilize  UCG as the source of a cost competitive *no CO2 emitting *base load power station. In my view being able to rapidly replace conventional coal fired power stations with  cost effective non polluting alternatives would be one of the greatest gifts LNC and AFC could offer all of us.

I've attached a report rom a UK AFC bulletin board.



> My thoughts on AFC following the AGM
> 
> Jeremy L
> 10UP
> 
> From yesterday’s meeting this is now what I believe to be the case:-
> 
> 2011:- Main focus clearly is proving up the commercial product the Beta Cell. There will be two trials one at Akzo Nobel the second at Dunsfold. My take on this is that the trials will take a good few months and they are not set up yet, as we all know the trials are due to start sometime before the end of June. So with a bit of luck we will know how these have gone in the autumn.
> 
> Late 2011/2012:- I'm hopeful that a larger scale trial will be agreed and be set up, this will be the pilot supergreen PowerStation we've all heard about, this will be a joint project between AFC and various other companies that you all know about already.
> 
> Late 2012/13:- Commercialisation- sales of beta cells in the hundreds of kilowatts. (A reply to my question from Ed in the Q&A section of the AGM). My view is that I’m optimistic that progress will go so well this will happen earlier, truth is we will all have to wait and see.
> 
> 2014/15:- Megawatt and possibly gigawatt sales (my best guess from all that was said at the AGM)
> 
> The Beta Cell: - has had some significant efficiency, design and cost saving upgrades. Potentially small tweaks and improvements can still be made but essentially it's now been designed and is pretty much the final version that will be commercialised. The impression I had was that in its final design this will be the ultimate Alkaline Fuel Cell and there will be very little room for any kind of further improvements by any other companies looking to take a slice of AFCs market share. The key aspects of the design of the Beta cell will have very strong patents (9 primary patent applications have been made). This for me is probably the greatest bit of news as competitors will have a very difficult time developing an alkaline fuel cell that can beat AFCs Beta cell. My interpretation is that companies wanting an Alkaline fuel cell will be using an AFC one or potentially there could be deals done with other companies to use AFC designs in their fuelcells.
> 
> The Electrode and catalyst: - Details of the latest Electrode and catalyst were top secret, the impression I had was that they have really hit the jackpot here and the cost will stay very low for a very long time. This is again fantastic news and I can’t wait to find out more of these details when they become public at some point in time.
> 
> Ramping up production for commercialisation: - Nothing decided yet on how they would do this, 2013 will be when production capacity needs to be ramped up so plenty of time to decide how this would be done. I had the impression that they have lots of options for mass production and discussions have already commenced with companies to potentially outsource mass production (nothing decided yet though).
> 
> Funding:- I asked this in the Q&A, the answer from Tim Yeo was along the lines of ' we are well funded for now'.
> 
> 
> A few other things:-
> Something im pretty sure was mentioned at the AGM (please correct me if im wrong) Akzo already have tried out the beta cell running in an alpha unit, sounds like this has gone ok.
> 
> Plans and detailed cost models and processes (traffic light system) are all now in place so that all aspects of the business are checked and monitored at all times so that all timelines can be achieved.
> 
> Pace of research:- Faster than Ed always anticipates.
> 
> Investor day in the summer (Date TBC)
> 
> As mentioned yesterday the overall impression I came away with is that the AFC team are supremely confident about the product they have developed and that commercialisation will definitely happen. Ed's estimate for commercialisation was 18 months (his answer in the Q&A) and this will be hundreds of kw.
> 
> Great to meet Nick and a few others from this discussion board (sorry about your car Nick!)
> 
> Hope this helps




(For some reason I can't cut and past the link. Sorry.  Look up AFC energy Interactive Investor>)

_______________________________________________________________

LNC had a number of staff members at the AGM. (fairly obvious given their stake in the company)


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/08/3186535.htm?site=southqld

...

Australia spent $16 billion last year importing petroleum.

"By 2015 that [deficit] could blow out to $30 billion a year. For that reason these UCG ventures are very important in the overall debate about Australia's energy security," Mr Ferguson said.

"Peter Bond has taken substantial risks to get Linc to this point, to have this road trip to prove the value of synthetic fuel in Australia.

"The trip has proved the capacity of us to create a new industry in Australia and in doing so to resolve our supply-side problems in terms of energy security from a transport point of view." 

...


----------



## Jonathan111

Landline Video on UCG

Video

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/landline/video/201104/r749121_6195200.flv


http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2010/s3187207.htm

I thought they could have covered LNCs efforts with ground water monitoring, casing, safety

"_Linc Energy notes that the groundwater monitoring data which it has collected at
Chinchilla and supplied to DERM over the past 11 years evidences the fact that
there has been no impact on the quality of the groundwater of adjacent property
holders._"http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/asx-229.pdf


_"LINC ENERGY RECEIVES POSITIVE REPORT FROM INDEPENDENT EXPERT PANEL
• Linc Energy’s Chinchilla demonstration facility goes from strength to strength
• Independent Scientific Panel on Underground Coal Gasification appointed by Queensland Government highlights Linc Energy’s ‘significant technical capacity’ and ‘world’s leading practice’
• Strong endorsement of Linc Energy’s technology and environmental management, as Linc Energy’s UCG Gasifier 4 hits 12 months of continuous operation
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX:LNC) (OTCQX:LNCGY) is pleased to confirm that it is business as usual for the Company’s Chinchilla Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) demonstration facility in south west Queensland.
This follows the announcement last Friday by Queensland Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, The Honourable Kate Jones, to end Cougar Energy’s Kingaroy UCG trial on the basis that Cougar Energy could not demonstrate to the Department of Environment and Resource Management and the Independent Scientific Panel that it could recommence its operations without an unacceptable risk of causing environmental harm.
The Company is pleased to note that the same Independent Scientific Panel in its report on Linc Energy acknowledged Linc Energy’s database containing a considerable quantity of information, its significant technical capacity, the fact that the Chinchilla demonstration facility is regarded as world’s leading practice and its willingness and openness in discussing its operations.
The Queensland Government has accepted the Independent Expert Panel’s recommendation that Linc Energy’s demonstration facility continue as planned. The Company remains on track to complete its demonstration facility trials in accordance with its previously announced timelines.
Mr Peter Bond, Chief Executive Officer, said, “Linc Energy’s superior technological capacity together with its dedication and commitment to professional environmental management has resulted in this pleasing outcome as we approach commercialisation of this valuable technology.”
“This is an endorsement of our operations and of our unwavering commitment to environmental management and the wellbeing of the community around which we operate.”"_
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-312.pdf

Otherwise, all in all, great review for Linc by Landline


----------



## dogeatdog

This is a good story from the "Australian", which will hopefully bolster the case for UCG and Linc.

www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/fuel-imports-grow-as-shell-plant-closure-axes-500-jobs/story-fn59niix-1226038108632

LNC holder.


----------



## Jonathan111

Abbot point decision pending...

_"a deal expected to fetch up to A$2bn"_ 
http://www.ifre.com/australia-banks-circle-a$2bn-abbot-point-sale/629766.article

_"Bids were due on Friday and it's believed Tinkler lodged an offer with offshore investment funds. Canada's Brookfield Infrastructure Group, long touted as the front-runner in the auction for the 99-year lease to operate the terminal, and a consortium including Hong Kong infrastructure group CKI and Deutsche Bank's infrastructure fund REEF are understood to be among other bidders to have submitted offers.

India's Adani Group is the other party in the process."_
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...bbott-point-deal/story-fn7rgef9-1226036870406

_"The competition regulator was due to rule on Adani's bid last week, but has requested more information, suspending its timeline for the decision. It's believed the state is on track to meet its $1.5bn price objective."_
http://m.theaustralian.com.au/OpinionNews/fi298330.htm


----------



## Jonathan111

Maybe Dudgeon Point is the prioirity for Adani..

_"From Queensland, there are five port options ”” Brisbane, Maryborough, Gladstonne, Hay Point and Abbott Point. But for Adani, to ship coal out from Australia, the last two choices are the best bet.

Adani has received permission from the local port authority to do a feasibility study to construct its own port and coal terminal at Dudgeon Point, as part of an expansion programme of the port of Hay Point. It will have to spend over $600 million (nearly Rs 2,700 crore) on a coal terminal alone that can handle their load factor.

There’s competition, too
This proposed site is very near to Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) and Hay Point, being run by BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi together as captive terminals. But both BHP and DBCT have also shown interest in additional coal terminals as they need excess terminal capacity for their operations. Their current captive terminals are fast reaching their peak as BHP is increasing annual production.

If Adani does finally get selected, then it will be a cheaper and easier logistical route and they will only need to invest in a 150-km stretch to Clairmont from their mine site where they is no rail linkage today. From that point onwards till the port, there are existing rail links used by others and only additional lines will need to be put in. The total combined investment will then come down, giving the Adanis considerable leg room.

The other option is the port of Abott Point, which has considerable excess capacity to handle the extra load. But to access that, a 500-km railroad needs to be built at an estimated cost of $3 billion (nearly Rs 13,500 crore).

Adani plans to mine around 52-60 million tonnes of coal every year to bring it to India and use some for trading, with operations beginning in 2014.

While Adani would only pay A$500 million (Rs 2,100 crore) as an upfront cash payment, the rest is payable as a A$2 (Rs 41.60) per tonne royalty for the first 20 years of production from the mine.

"_

 http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/adani-to-spend-4-bnaussie-mine/409684/


----------



## Jonathan111

Investor Linc out.

http://www.lincenergy.com/investor_linc.php?articleId=52

X-GAP looks like a great management System

_"We’ve implemented a system of management called ‘X-GAP’ where we as a team set the goals we need to achieve every 90 days. Each team then signs a contract that reflects what they ‘must’ achieve to reach their goals and how these goals help us as a group reach Linc Energy’s overarching goals. The gap between the plan and its execution is called the ‘execution gap’ or X-GAP for short. This model is all about the efficiency of execution. The reason I’m focussing on this is simple – Linc Energy has huge opportunities ahead of itself and as our business model grows, the key issue to driving significant success for Linc Energy and its shareholders is how well we can ‘execute’ our business plans. How skillfully we can drill a well, or explore for coal and oil. How proficiently we can construct a pipeline, or set-up a UCG operation, or execute the construction of a GTL plant."_

Does this mean the indians are interested? Like a tiger?


_"The Teresa coal sale is ongoing and we are in the middle of a number of sale options and negotiations. I will say that in my 30 years of involvement in the coal industry I’ve never seen a better coal market. There really is tremendous potential for Linc Energy to benefit from its Australian coal assets. I will keep you informed when a definitive and material coal deal is finalised. By the way, keep an eye on what’s happening with Linc Energy in the USA. Our North American team is kicking some serious goals! Well done to all of the Linc Energy USA Team – you guys certainly have the tiger by the tail."_
__________________________________________________________________________

Regards,
J

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_XAPku7SgE


ive made my beer money for the next couple years off unv 36c since last months hit.. ;p   topping up  LNC (might sell my EVG to top up more LNC) 
holding LNC LT


----------



## Mickel

DATE: 15 Apr 2011

Interview with CEO Peter Bond on Sky Business News

CEO Peter Bond comments on the proposed carbon tax.

http://www.lincenergy.com/linc_vodcasts.php

More good publicity.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

A bit of ancient history now, but the Age reports this morning allegations that Tony Mokbel and his brother laundered money through investments in Linc Energy back in 2004-2006.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/many-branches-to-mokbel-drugmoney-trail-20110419-1dnh5.html


----------



## GumbyLearner

McCoy Pauley said:


> A bit of ancient history now, but the Age reports this morning allegations that Tony Mokbel and his brother laundered money through investments in Linc Energy back in 2004-2006.
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/many-branches-to-mokbel-drugmoney-trail-20110419-1dnh5.html




I really appreciate the post McCoy Pauley. I will definitely stay away from these guys. Cheers for the heads up. 
Gumby


----------



## dogeatdog

GumbyLearner said:


> I really appreciate the post McCoy Pauley. I will definitely stay away from these guys. Cheers for the heads up.
> Gumby




Hello Gumpy. You mean you will "stay away from" the Mokbe brothers, or Linc energy?

LNC holder.


----------



## Slipperz

"*The Teresa coal sale is ongoing and we are in the middle of a number of sale options and negotiations. I will say that in my 30 years of involvement in the coal industry I’ve never seen a better coal market. There really is tremendous potential for Linc Energy to benefit from its Australian coal assets. I will keep you informed when a definitive and material coal deal is finalised. By the way, keep an eye on what’s happening with Linc Energy in the USA. Our North American team is kicking some serious goals! Well done to all of the Linc Energy USA Team – you guys certainly have the tiger by the tail." 
*

Now that coal sale has the potential to add $1.00 to the SP and potentially bring another dividend to holders when it occurs. Whether it's two days, two weeks, two months or two years away is anyones guess.

It's this cheap oilfield purchase that I have been looking at today and I like what I have found.

Firstly the cost of 20mm for 27 856 acres works out to just under $718.00 per acre and industry prices in that part pf the world are moving to $5k per acre with some element of risk. So PB has stitched up a good deal here acreage wise from Rancher Energy who got caught in the credit crunch in 2009 and ended up in chapter 11. Here is the relevant SEC report from Rancher Energy...

"We acquired our oilfields in late 2006 and early 2007 with the intention of significantly increasing crude oil production through an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project utilizing modern CO2 injection techniques. The planned EOR project required a significant amount of capital to carry out. In October 2007, we borrowed $12.24 million from GasRock Capital LLC (GasRock), an investment bank, to serve as a "bridge loan" to enable us to complete plans for the EOR project while we sought a larger, longer-term source of capital to conduct the project. At least partially due to the severe disruptions in credit and financial markets, coupled with extreme volatility in crude oil prices, we were not successful in raising the capital to repay the bridge loan and commence the project. Following a series of amendments to the GasRock loan agreement and extensions of the maturity date, we were unable to repay the loan on the amended due date of October 15, 2009. On October 16, 2009, GasRock notified us the failure to repay the loan constituted an event of default and notified us of their intention to foreclose on the assets pledged as collateral for the loan. GasRock instructed our bank to transfer all cash we had on deposit to GasRock, leaving us without funds to operate the oilfields or pay overhead.

On October 28, 2009, we filed a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 11 of Title 11 of the United States Code (the "Bankruptcy Code") in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Colorado (the "Court") (Case number 09-32943) We will continue to operate our business as "debtor-in-possession" under the jurisdiction of the Court and in accordance with the applicable provisions of the Bankruptcy Code and the order of the Court, as we devote renewed efforts to resolve our liquidity problems and develop a reorganization plan."


 So can the fields be brought up to the level of production he maintains they can? 10k BOEPD is a big step up from their current production of 190!!!

http://www.cenovus.com/operations/oil/weyburn.html

Presumably this can be achieved looking at the results from the Weyburn field in Canada.

Thing is LNC will need lots of CO2 for injection into the wells. Right now there is a CO2 pipeline in place which LNC can utilise until they can harness the CO2  generated as a  a byproduct from the UCG plant  planned for construction in Q4 2011. Feeding this plant is the 7-19 billion tonnes of coal LNC have in the Powder River basin that they brought for 50 mm in a script only deal valuing LNC at $4.03 a share.

PB is starting to look like quite the master deal maker here!

From memory capex for a GTL plant was considered too high in AUS so the Powder River basin looks like a goer for LNC to me. 

Lower capex for GTL plant, more accomodating local govt, great resource and the CO2 waste goes to flooding an oilfield back into commercial production!

Awesome!  

Pretty much all summarised here in the AGM presentation from last year. http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Presentation-571.pdf

I might be behind the curve a bit here but the market isn't that far ahead either at this stage IMHO. 

I will be looking for an entry in the near future ...again!


----------



## luckypaul

Before I raise a couple of concerns I would like to say that I am currently a Linc Energy stock holder and have been for nearly 5 years now. I like what the company are doing in terms of diversification away from the purely UCG company that they were some years ago and hope very much that it all works out for them (and us). I have 2 concerns which I thought I'd raise to see what others points of view were.

1) Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) is why many of us are in this stock. It offers the ability to use a yet unallocated resources (stranded coal) to generate either electricity or when combined with the GTL process to produce liquid fuels. This makes perfect sense as a way forward as it provides a bridge between our dependance on liquid fossil fuels and a distant future when some other alternative is developed. As Linc have now proven the process and driven across Australia on the results it is now just a matter of proving that it can be done in commercial quantities at somewhere near the USD 30 per barrel cost quoted and the stock should go straight up! 

My concern with this is that GTL with already abundant, easily accessible Natural Gas may be a cheaper alternative? The US already has an excess of natural gas resulting in a really cheap price at this point in time. Why doesn't anyone do GTL on that (is natural gas anywhere near syngas?) to produce diesel/jet fuels and if they can, how does the cost compare with Linc's coal derived solution? Any ideas out there? Could this be why Linc's focus on UCG has dimmed somewhat lately?

2. My second concern is with the EOR using Co2. There is a good article on Fracking here http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/fracking-controversy (start at the second section) which gives a good idea of the process and some of the concerns although doesn't cover CO2 use specifically. There are plenty of articles on the internet on CO2 fracking and as you may expect some are rather scary. Here are some examples picked from the first page of google:- 

http://fromthestyx.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/enough-fracking-chemicals-in-the-water-to-make-you-sick/ 
http://citizensagainstco2sequestration.blogspot.com/2009/06/fracking.html

Whether they (and the numerous other articles) are the result of valid concerns, mis-management by unprofessional companies (and there are certainly those in the UCG arena) or exaggerated fears is not really important here. My concern with this is that Linc has built solid foundations on being a green, environmentally caring company but is now heading full bore into another newish technology which is already firmly in the negative public eye and easily able to be a company killer if mistakes are made by Linc and/or other less professional operators in this field. Is this the sensible thing to do?

p.s. I am not an environmentalist (except for having a desire for us to not totally screw up the planet) and am certainly not a chemist so apologies if the above concerns are lacking detail? I would be interested to hear what others think though?


----------



## Jonathan111

luckypaul said:


> 1)
> Why doesn't anyone do GTL on that
> 
> 
> 2. My second concern is with the EOR using Co2. There is a good article on Fracking here




1] Yes they are Sasol i think are doing it with shale gas, which i think needs fracing. UCG does not.

http://www.southafricafocus.com/201...an-shale-gas-turn-it-into-diesel-forbes-blog/

2] 
I think fracture stimulation and C02 EOR are different processes.

http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/CO2_EOR_Fact_Sheet.pdf


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV94W5PFXs8&feature=BFp&list=FLwG6QQXVTx7U&index=4



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMBhX1IxajU



Coil tubing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRRd2UoxKHo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqRKZtCOyzw


----------



## dogeatdog

Jonathan111 said:


> 1] Yes they are Sasol i think are doing it with shale gas, which i think needs fracing. UCG does not.
> 
> http://www.southafricafocus.com/201...an-shale-gas-turn-it-into-diesel-forbes-blog/
> 
> 2]
> I think fracture stimulation and C02 EOR are different processes.
> 
> http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/CO2_EOR_Fact_Sheet.pdf
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV94W5PFXs8&feature=BFp&list=FLwG6QQXVTx7U&index=4
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMBhX1IxajU
> 
> 
> 
> Coil tubing
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRRd2UoxKHo
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqRKZtCOyzw





Some enlightening links there Jonathon. Thank you.
Another opportunity to buy in today in the low 2.80's.
I'm still eagerly awaiting the next coal tenement sale to boost the sp.

LNC share holder.


----------



## teabagger

Catalyst
8:00pm - 8:32pm
Classified:GGenre:Science and Technology
A special edition high on energy. Is the oil crunch imminent? Plus, endless energy from hot rocks, oil from algae, energy-saving houses, and could Australia go nuclear?


8.00PM Tonight ABC
Sounds interesting and worth a look. Sounds like a crunch where Linc could be part of the solution and stand to capatalise greatly from.


----------



## teabagger

Ah well , it wasn't exactly Linc energy saves the world with PB in a supersuit and undies on the outside but it did bring home the point I guess that as oil become more scarce and therefore expensive the alternatives become more viable.

While digging around the Catalyst site I found the following. Just more interesting stuff.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2009/10/06/2706201.htm


----------



## dogeatdog

teabagger said:


> Ah well , it wasn't exactly Linc energy saves the world with PB in a supersuit and undies on the outside but it did bring home the point I guess that as oil become more scarce and therefore expensive the alternatives become more viable.
> 
> While digging around the Catalyst site I found the following. Just more interesting stuff.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2009/10/06/2706201.htm




Yes, an interesting piece teabagger. Especially the concerns about the implications of "drawing in water, and heating the bedrock over burden".
Hopefully a better day for Lincs sp later today.
LNC holder.


----------



## Mickel

Interesting article today about Adani buying Abbott Point Coal Terminal from Qld Govt.

"India's Adani Enterprises has agreed to buy the Abbot Point Coal Terminal in Queensland in a deal valued at around $1.85 billion and expected to be announced later on Tuesday, sources said.

Adani, which was competing with a last-minute offer for the asset by mining tycoon Nathan Tinkler, had won the bidding, two sources familiar with the deal told Reuters.

The state government, which is selling the terminal as part of a $15 billion infrastructure privatisation programme, was expected to announce the winner later on Tuesday, three sources said.

Adani or Tinkler were not immediately available for comment."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-Indias-Adani-fron-GH2SH?OpenDocument&src=hp4

The map in the reference below shows the Galilee tenement sold to Adani by LNC in relation to the Qld coast. Abbot Point is just north of Bowen and about 200KM south of Townsville.
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/presentation-09-11-24.pdf

This is the closest port to the Galilee tenement and augers well for Adani to realise its plan to commence shipping coal from Galilee in 2014.

In turn, this augers well for LNC to commence earning its royalty stream as planned.
Alternatively, as LNC has speculated previously, it could sell this asset prior to 2014 at a time when Adani's plans to ship the coal are well advanced, and realise around $1 Billion.

LNC holder


----------



## basilio

LNC released a statement on the Alaskan drill.

Unfortunately the LEA1 well did not have commercial quantities of gas. Drat!! As usual there was lots of underground coal and there will be plenty more drilling to find gas and coal. 

The statement went to great pains to point out how much value LNC obtained from the drill. Just a little awkard that this was effectively a duster. 

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...te.ac?code=lnc&get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts


----------



## basilio

Some real movement in LNC today. It's jumped 15c !  Nice to see some decent green at last.
Perhaps, perhaps... we are getting close to some announcements ? 
 ________________________________________________

Well perhaps it was just an ambitious buyer who was then brought back to reality..


----------



## skivvy

basilio said:


> Some real movement in LNC today. It's jumped 15c !  Nice to see some decent green at last.
> Perhaps, perhaps... we are getting close to some announcements ?
> ________________________________________________
> 
> Well perhaps it was just an ambitious buyer who was then brought back to reality..




Yeah bas, nice to see the sp finally edging up towards the $3 level, a resistance level  which needs to be broken and on increasing volume before I get too optimistic.  But heh, lets be optimistic, there was some decent volumes going through right up to the close of trade today.  
Bit of a nice coincidence as I was only joking with my wife today on seeing that the courier had dropped a parcel at my front gate today when I got home.  I jokingly said it might be my Diesel Dash commerative hat and t-shirt from the Linc team, and she laughed and I said don't be so negative, it might be a sign of better times ahead for linc. Heres hoping, anyway it was my Linc Diesel Dash stuff, so I will wear my shirt with pride on Friday to give the company some PR.  GLTA holders.

Skivvy


----------



## dogeatdog

skivvy said:


> Yeah bas, nice to see the sp finally edging up towards the $3 level, a resistance level  which needs to be broken and on increasing volume before I get too optimistic.  But heh, lets be optimistic, there was some decent volumes going through right up to the close of trade today.
> Bit of a nice coincidence as I was only joking with my wife today on seeing that the courier had dropped a parcel at my front gate today when I got home.  I jokingly said it might be my Diesel Dash commerative hat and t-shirt from the Linc team, and she laughed and I said don't be so negative, it might be a sign of better times ahead for linc. Heres hoping, anyway it was my Linc Diesel Dash stuff, so I will wear my shirt with pride on Friday to give the company some PR.  GLTA holders.
> 
> Skivvy



Guess your not a Cougar energy employee then Skivvy :headshake
As you say, good to see the sp heading north again, for no obvious reason.
Sitting here with everything crossed, waiting for the next tenement sale etc.

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

Quite a significant announcement in UK on legally binding CO2 reduction targets.



> *Historic climate change deal with legal powers agreed by Cabinet*
> 
> Chris Huhne will announce a long-term programme that will put Britain at the forefront of the battle against climate change
> 
> Saturday 14 May 2011 21.37 BST
> 
> 
> Cabinet ministers have agreed a far-reaching, legally binding "green deal" that will commit the UK to two decades of drastic cuts in carbon emissions. The package will require sweeping changes to domestic life, transport and business and will place Britain at the forefront of the global battle against climate change.
> 
> The new budget puts the government on target to meet a reduction by 2050 of 80% of carbon emissions compared with 1990 levels. The committee has said that to reach this carbon emissions should be cut by 60% by 2030.
> 
> Ministers believe that major companies involved in developing offshore wind technology – such as Siemens, Vestas and General Electric – will now be keener to invest in Britain, knowing it is committed to a huge expansion in renewable energy. It is also hoped that the commitment to renewable energy – the committee says 40% of the UK's power should come from wind, wave and tide sources by 2030 – will stimulate new industries.
> 
> These would include the development of tidal power plants, wave generators *and carbon capture and storage technology – which would extract carbon dioxide from coal and oil plants and pump it into underground chambers.* All three technologies, if developed in Britain, could be major currency earners.




http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/14/historic-climate-change-deal-agreed-chris-huhne

This could be quite significant for  LNC if it gets cracking with  the hydrogen fuel cell power generator coupled with UCG. They already have 10% of AFC (Alkaline Fuel cell) and I reckon if AFC start to prove the fuel cell technology there will be an early implementation of the first UCG/ fuel cell power stations which would give LNC the opportunity to develop similar power stations around the world. 

It would be great to see an effective commercial AFC fuel cell in operation  within the next couple of months.

____________________________________________________________________________

There is an analysis of the AFC fuel cell which also discusses LNC's role in commercialization of product utilising LNC's UCG technology. Long read but worth a look. Note it was written in March 2010

I think this also highlights the potential value of the AFC shares in UK. 

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/conten...ial-adoption-of-fuel-cell-technologies-40581/


----------



## kingcarmleo

Haven't heard much from LNC of late, haven't really been checking up though. Any significant updates?


----------



## luckypaul

If any of you Linc holders out there are wishing they could have bought Linc back in the early days when the stock had yet to reach A$1.00 for the first time here is a 'young' Linc that may be worth putting some cash on and forgetting about for 5 years or so. 

Altona Energy (ANR) listed on the UK Aim market is interested in the same location as Linc in South Australia with similar plans but lacking Linc's experience and professionalism (so far). It does however have a partnership with CNOOC so already in with the big boys. Anyway read the article and decide whether to take a punt or not. http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/altona-energy-is-intent-on-expanding-the-scope-of-the-huge-arckaringa-coal-project-in-south-australi-1/860.html  Today trading at 10.5p on low volume. I am currently not invested in this stock but it is in my 'long shot' buy list when the next ugly market correction occurs - which can't be too far away now.


----------



## basilio

Bit of a rocket  up  LNC today . Big volumes and a 20c rise. Maybe time for an announcement regard the next coal sale ?


----------



## Risk Chaser

basilio said:


> Bit of a rocket  up  LNC today . Big volumes and a 20c rise. Maybe time for an announcement regard the next coal sale ?




what does the buyers know that we dont?
I'm almost temtped to sell at $3 and buy back on future weakness


----------



## Brian Acheson

Risk Chaser said:


> what does the buyers know that we dont?
> I'm almost temtped to sell at $3 and buy back on future weakness




SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC.AU), an Australian clean-fuel company, has received a firm offer from a Hong Kong-based company for its Teresa coal asset in Queensland state, and is waiting for three other companies to submit bids before it announces a sale, a company executive said Thursday.

"We have a firm offer on the table," said Justyn Peters, Linc Energy's general manager for government and business development. "But we will not announce the sale until it is unconditional."

The company expects to announce the sale, for at least A$500 million, in the next one or two months, Peters said. Linc Energy is still waiting for one Australian and two Indian companies to complete their due diligence. Linc believes the Teresa coal mine can produce 5.5 million metric tons a year.

Brian


----------



## brty

Brian,

You probably should add the source of those comments. It's from here...

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/markets/newsfeeditem.aspx?id=142552112196902

As a recent purchaser of this stock, that is nice news. I'm a little surprised that no announcement has been made to the ASX, and would not be surprised if the company received a speeding ticket.

brty


----------



## Mickel

brty said:


> Brian,
> 
> You probably should add the source of those comments. It's from here...
> 
> http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/markets/newsfeeditem.aspx?id=142552112196902
> 
> As a recent purchaser of this stock, that is nice news. I'm a little surprised that no announcement has been made to the ASX, and would not be surprised if the company received a speeding ticket.
> 
> brty




Thanks Brian and Brty for this information. The fact that there are 4 potential buyers for Teresa augers well for a good sale price, and hopefully by end of June.

The other very interesting news is -

" In the U.S., Linc Energy has four mergers-and-aquisitions teams looking at potential acquisitions of energy resources in Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Illinois and North and South Dakota. The company is in the middle of completing due diligence on a "few" acquisitions, he said.

"There are no shortage of projects," Peters said."

My intrepretation of this is that the  potential acquistions will be depleted oil fields which LNC will greatly increase production with EOR using CO2 from their own UCG operations.This is in line with their plans outlined at the last AGM.

S/P finished at $3.08  - up 22c

LNC holder


----------



## dogeatdog

brty said:


> Brian,
> 
> You probably should add the source of those comments. It's from here...
> 
> http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/markets/newsfeeditem.aspx?id=142552112196902
> 
> As a recent purchaser of this stock, that is nice news. I'm a little surprised that no announcement has been made to the ASX, and would not be surprised if the company received a speeding ticket.
> 
> brty




Thanks for the link brty.
Great to see some progress.
No doubt trading volume will explode in the next few sessions, allowing for some nice day trading.

LNC holder.


----------



## Mr Z

Looking at my chart I would say that the struggle with the $3 area is coming to an end. We have some resistance @ 3.12 then 3.25 and 3.34 (according to my methodology!) Then we have clear sky up to the 4.10 area where we should see head winds up to strong resistance at the 4.56 line. My guess is that will cap this years upside. Nice move yesterday, looking for some follow through soon! 

My  on LNC!


----------



## Mickel

Mr Z said:


> Looking at my chart I would say that the struggle with the $3 area is coming to an end. We have some resistance @ 3.12 then 3.25 and 3.34 (according to my methodology!) Then we have clear sky up to the 4.10 area where we should see head winds up to strong resistance at the 4.56 line. My guess is that will cap this years upside. Nice move yesterday, looking for some follow through soon!
> 
> My  on LNC!




Thanks for your chart analysis Mr Z. Certainly some interesting times ahead for LNC.


----------



## dogeatdog

Hardly the "explosion" in volume I was anticipating, but a reasonable range in which to trade today.
I certainly appreciate your latest input MR Z, and as a year long holder on Linc stock, obviously hope the top end of your analysis proves correct 
I fear however, the macro economic environment, including the pending Greek crisis, may cause negative sentiment next week, and return Lincs sp below $3. IMHO :dunno:
Personally I'm now hedged.
Pleasant weekend people


----------



## dogeatdog

Linc makes a further investment in AFC.

www.supergenfuelcells.co.uk/aggregator/categories/1


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Linc makes a further investment in AFC.
> 
> www.supergenfuelcells.co.uk/aggregator/categories/1




Thanks for that reference, Doggy.
http://www.supergenfuelcells.co.uk/aggregator/categories/1

LNC has been issued approx 5.2million shares of AFC for approx GBP 2.1 million to take its holding to 12%, up from 10%.

Another interesting revelation in the article is that the CEO has resigned  because of a difference of opinion (presumably with the board).

Bas, this may be the reason why LNC has been silent about their plans for AFC with UCG since obtaining their initial shareholding.


----------



## basilio

It is a puzzle  as to the resignation of the  previous CEO.  It* could* mask some significant issues in terms of the commercial viability of the technology ( _but I have absolutely no basis for this speculation_ ).

It would be good however to see a final beta cell operational, reliable  and capable of being  produced in commercial quantities at a good price. 

There actually is plenty of competition in this field. Success will require  being an effective competitor against the largest energy suppliers and retailers in the world. I don't think you win in that arena simply because you have a better product.


----------



## basilio

Another decent jump in price and volume today. Up 18c to 3.21. Perhaps that coal sale announcement will be sooner than later.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mr Z said:


> Looking at my chart I would say that the struggle with the $3 area is coming to an end. We have some resistance @ 3.12 then 3.25 and 3.34 (according to my methodology!) Then we have clear sky up to the 4.10 area where we should see head winds up to strong resistance at the 4.56 line. My guess is that will cap this years upside. Nice move yesterday, looking for some follow through soon!
> 
> My  on LNC!




MR Z, So far your spot on.
Accept a cyber beer from me :bier:
Based partly on the information you posted here, I placed a couple of trades that worked out almost perfectly.
Thank you so much.

LNC holder


----------



## luckypaul

Hmmmm! Looks like there are a lot of companies jumping on the stranded coal/syngas bandwagon http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/16777/wildhorse-energy-says-early-results-from-feasibility-study-confirm-the-potential-of-syngas-project-16777.html

I guess this IS good in that it will bring the processes and their possibilities to the public eye (which it currently isn't) but on the bad side if any of these 'minor' companies mess up and pollute the water table or Mrs Miggins cup of coffee the whole industry will go down the tubes.

Linc are so professional at this and were world leaders, I am struggling to understand why progress, commercialisation and even focus now seems to be rather lacking?


----------



## dogeatdog

Sitting here having watched the US market, and with ten minutes before the ASX opens for business.
Will be interesting to see if Linc drops significantly today.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-shares-routed-as-the-dow-tumbles-279-points-on-us-economic-fears/story-e6frg91o-1226067604961

LNC holder


----------



## mr. jeff

thought i would jump the gun and et you know there is a trading halt on LNC until announcement of an acquisition oil asset
good luck
GTG!


----------



## dogeatdog

mr. jeff said:


> thought i would jump the gun and et you know there is a trading halt on LNC until announcement of an acquisition oil asset
> good luck
> GTG!




This is out of the Blue 
Hopefully good news.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-331.pdf

LNC Holder.


----------



## Jonathan111

dogeatdog said:


> This is out of the Blue
> Hopefully good news.
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-331.pdf
> 
> LNC Holder.




300 million oil aquisiton 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...eal-looks-sealed/story-e6frg8zx-1226068960304


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> This is out of the Blue
> Hopefully good news.
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-331.pdf
> 
> LNC Holder.




Hi Doggy

Not really "out of the blue".

In my post of 26 May (No. 1915) I quoted-

" In the U.S., Linc Energy has four mergers-and-aquisitions teams looking at potential acquisitions of energy resources in Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Illinois and North and South Dakota. The company is in the middle of completing due diligence on a "few" acquisitions, he said.
"There are no shortage of projects," Peters said."

The latest story in The Australian is the result of the 4 M & A teams' due diligence work.

As the article says, the proposed oil fields are adjacent to their current coal holdings (which I believe are in Wyoming), so the proposed oil fields are probably in Wyoming or Sth Dakota or both.

I consider that for $300 million they will obtain around 10 times the potential reserves of their initial purchase of Rancher (100M barrels of oil for $20M).

In my view, PB wouldn't outlay $300M unless LNC could earn at least $2Billion. There is a shortage of CO2 in the USA and LNC has the ability to produce CO2 for $40 per barrel of oil total cost.

While this is great news, I'm not sure the market will reflect it in the share price immediately as it doesn't appear to realise the cost advantage that LNC has over  other oil producers with EOR.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Hi Doggy
> 
> Not really "out of the blue".
> 
> In my post of 26 May (No. 1915) I quoted-
> 
> " In the U.S., Linc Energy has four mergers-and-aquisitions teams looking at potential acquisitions of energy resources in Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Illinois and North and South Dakota. The company is in the middle of completing due diligence on a "few" acquisitions, he said.
> "There are no shortage of projects," Peters said."
> 
> The latest story in The Australian is the result of the 4 M & A teams' due diligence work.
> 
> As the article says, the proposed oil fields are adjacent to their current coal holdings (which I believe are in Wyoming), so the proposed oil fields are probably in Wyoming or Sth Dakota or both.
> 
> I consider that for $300 million they will obtain around 10 times the potential reserves of their initial purchase of Rancher (100M barrels of oil for $20M).
> 
> In my view, PB wouldn't outlay $300M unless LNC could earn at least $2Billion. There is a shortage of CO2 in the USA and LNC has the ability to produce CO2 for $40 per barrel of oil total cost.
> 
> While this is great news, I'm not sure the market will reflect it in the share price immediately as it doesn't appear to realise the cost advantage that LNC has over  other oil producers with EOR.




Hey Mickel. 
Yes of course your right, and thank you for the reminder. At least one of us is on the ball 
I guess I was expecting the sale of the next coal tenement, rather than the acquisitions in question.
Leaves me wondering if both the above mentioned will be released prior to the re-opening of trading. Just a thought


----------



## Mickel

I don't think Justyn Peters' presentation last month has been referenced here to date.

This is it-  http://www.asx.com.au/smalltomidcaps/asia/linc_pres.pdf

Particularly interesting pages are-

Page 23- Location of Rancher Oil Fields.

Page 25- EOR Strategy

Page 27- Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Page 30- Summary and Milestones

Very bright future for LNC.

LNC Holder.


----------



## basilio

Nice one Mickel. Delighted to see the specific mention of Hydrogen fuel cells and the above ground gasification process. 

It does look exciting


----------



## Brian Acheson

LINC ENERGY ACQUIRES SIGNIFICANT OIL PRODUCING ASSETS IN TEXAS & LOUISIANA, USA

● Linc Energy has acquired 14 oil fields consisting of 156 leases covering approximately 13,400 acres in the Gulf Coast Region of Texas and Louisiana, from ERG Resources LLC, at a purchase price of US$236m.
● Current oil production is approximately 3,300 barrels per day (over 1.1 million barrels per annum).
● The immediate plan over the next 12 months is to increase oil production on the acquired fields with additional drilling and well optimisation so as to exceed 6,300 barrels per day (over 2.2 million barrel per annum) by the 4th Quarter of 2012.
● The potential also exists for a significant increase in production from Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 flooding) which Linc Energy will be investigating over the coming 12 months.
● Acquired fields contain Net Proven Reserves (1P) of 20.5 Million Barrels of Oil (MMBO), and Net Proven and Probable Reserves (2P) of 22.3 MMBO.
● These assets are cash flow positive on day one of the acquisition.
● The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has commenced arranging minimal recourse debt financing to support the acquisition and the first year of capital expenditure for both the ERG assets and the previously acquired Rancher Energy Corp. oil field assets in Wyoming.

----------------------

Visit http://www.topstocks.com.au/stock_d..._thread&threadid=667454&postid=667454#p667454 to read this post and others on the LINC ENERGY LTD discussion board.

Brian


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> Hi Doggy
> 
> Not really "out of the blue".
> 
> In my post of 26 May (No. 1915) I quoted-
> 
> " In the U.S., Linc Energy has four mergers-and-aquisitions teams looking at potential acquisitions of energy resources in Wyoming, Alaska, Texas, Illinois and North and South Dakota. The company is in the middle of completing due diligence on a "few" acquisitions, he said.
> "There are no shortage of projects," Peters said."
> 
> The latest story in The Australian is the result of the 4 M & A teams' due diligence work.
> 
> As the article says, the proposed oil fields are adjacent to their current coal holdings (which I believe are in Wyoming), so the proposed oil fields are probably in Wyoming or Sth Dakota or both.
> 
> I consider that for $300 million they will obtain around 10 times the potential reserves of their initial purchase of Rancher (100M barrels of oil for $20M).
> 
> In my view, PB wouldn't outlay $300M unless LNC could earn at least $2Billion. There is a shortage of CO2 in the USA and LNC has the ability to produce CO2 for $40 per barrel of oil total cost.
> 
> While this is great news, I'm not sure the market will reflect it in the share price immediately as it doesn't appear to realise the cost advantage that LNC has over  other oil producers with EOR.




I finished writing my opinion just before the announcement came out. I publish it here to show I had the strategy correct but many of the numbers wrong. I was too low in the debt funding % but too high in the current oil production.---

On reflection I think my comment above on the value of the 3 new oil fields at $2Billion is on the very low side.

I now think that this purchase, at 15 times the cost of the Rancher purchase, will have approx 1 Billion BOO which is 10 times the reserves of Rancher which was In Liquidation. While not all of this may be recoverable, similiar to Rancher,at least 1 field may have high existing production (10,000Bopd +) with a large reserve recoverable with EOR.

This would provide a large immediate cash flow which would make borrowing  around $150 M a "no brainer".
I'm sure I have heard or read that LNC would consider this either at the 2010 AGM or since then. With a large cash flow in the USA in the coming years it certainly is a better option than issuing more shares and also allows LNC to hold out for the best price for Teresa.

All in my humble opinion.

LNC Holder


----------



## basilio

Interesting to see how the market has reacted (in the very short term )  to the news.

A couple of big buyers sent LNC to 3.15 - but this hasn't been backed up with any further support. LNC dropped below 3.00 and still sits below it's initial opening price.

This is one scared, skittish market. I think on almost any objective analysis the LNC oil deal is excellent value. And yet there is still little systemic support despite the imminent Teresa sale and this deal ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Interesting to see how the market has reacted (in the very short term )  to the news.
> 
> A couple of big buyers sent LNC to 3.15 - but this hasn't been backed up with any further support. LNC dropped below 3.00 and still sits below it's initial opening price.
> 
> This is one scared, skittish market. I think on almost any objective analysis the LNC oil deal is excellent value. And yet there is still little systemic support despite the imminent Teresa sale and this deal ?




I agree Bas. As I said in post No. 1930-
"While this is great news, I'm not sure the market will reflect it in the share price immediately as it doesn't appear to realise the cost advantage that LNC has over other oil producers with EOR. "


----------



## Mr Z

basilio said:


> This is one scared, skittish market.




Isn't it just! On the flipside anyone who lacks conviction should have been shaken free by now. In theory we should be building a great base here, sans 2008 redux


----------



## dogeatdog

Mr Z said:


> Isn't it just! On the flipside anyone who lacks conviction should have been shaken free by now. In theory we should be building a great base here, sans 2008 redux




MR Z, You once stated "this is a stock for the back draw". Totally agree with you.

I originally became interested in Linc because of the concept of GTL from stranded coal. 
The company/PB has in recent times, focused more on EOR.
There is a great deal of unknown with the current diversification.
1) Supply of CO2 for EOR.
2) Possibility of lower oil prices.
3) Environmental concerns.
4) The latest acquisition financing debt.
etc, etc.

Until Linc start to generate some serious revenue, investors are likely to trade in and out of this company. (IMHO)

LNC holder


----------



## Mr Z

BRR --> Linc Energy acquires producing oil assets in US - Peter Bond, CEO


----------



## Mickel

From this latest announcement and previous ones, I will attempt to extrapolate future earnings.

So, current production from 1 Aug 2011- 3500 bopd increasing to 10,000 bopd by Dec 2011, then increasing to 20,000 bopd min by Dec 2012, then increasing to 100,000 bopd by June 2016.

Aug 2011 3,500pd, Sept 3,500pd, Oct 5,000pd, Nov 7,500pd, Dec 10,000 pd        Total     883500

with only 24 days production in Dec. Also only 24 days production in Jan & Dec 2012.

Jan 2012 10,000pd, Feb & Mar 12,000pd, Apr & May 14,000pd, Jun & Jul 16,000pd, Aug & Sep 18,000 pd

Oct&Nov19,000pd,Dec20,000pd                                                                                                          Total    5,515,000

So total production from Aug  2011 to Dec 2012      =                                                          6,398,500

At $100 per boo & costs @ $40 boo  6,398,500 X $60      = $383,910,000

With say an adjusted purchase price of say $240M & therefore borrowings of $180M with interest only  at 5%pa until maturity in Dec 2012, then interest-  180M X 5%pa for 1yr 5 mths = $12.75M + repayt of 180 M = $192.75

So profit is $192.75M  EBITA for 17mths oil production in USA on LNC capital of only $60M

I realise that I haven't accounted for the extra funding required for expansion as it would normally be drawn down progressivley. If the entire $60M ($300M- $240M) is drawn down then the interest would be less than $4M. So $192.75M less $64M is $128.75M EBITA

Using the same sale price and cost price for a barrel of oil, then I believe the following is achievable-

6 Mths to June 2013 - $60 gross profit X12000 booX 175 days      = $126M

12Mths to June 2014 $60 gross profit X  14,000 boo X 350 days   = $294M

12 Mths to June 2015 $60 gross profit X 18,000 boo X 350 days   = $378M

12 mths to June 2016 $60 gross profit X 20,000 boo X 350 days   = $420M

Total profit over 3.5 yrs                                                                              $1,218M EBITA

I consider that this is a conservative estimate of potential earnings and not realised by the general investor. Perhaps RBS will assist to correct with regular Broker reports. 

I welcome any discussion on this estimate.

LNC Holder


----------



## dogeatdog

Mr Z said:


> BRR --> Linc Energy acquires producing oil assets in US - Peter Bond, CEO




All sounds very upbeat 
Looking forward to 20,000 b/d in the near future.


----------



## Mr Z

Cash flow is good


----------



## basilio

Nice set of figures there Mickel. And it doesn't even consider further coal sales, royalties from Adani coal sale (around $100 m a year from perhaps 2014 onwards) possible GTL plants, commercialization of Hydrogen fuel cell technology (not to mention 12% share in AFC..) and so on.

I suppose my question would be how quickly will LNC start to distribute earnings as dividends to shareholders ? I notice that in the energy industry dividends are kept  relatively low and the theory is that increasing SP rewards shareholders. 

I'm not sure if that model will continue to work with a cautious perhaps declining share market.  On the other hand solid cash flow with a quality franked divided stream would  reward shareholders and  underpin  increases in SP: After all  a simple 15c a share dividend will distribute $75m a year which seems very achievable on the projections  outlined.2twocents


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Presentation-630.pdf

pentland and emerald approx $1b?

_"Two other non‐core coal assets will be for sale for approx AUD1 billion"_


----------



## mexican

Mr.Z

Don't know if you use candles but I noticed a possible reversal pattern (Hammer) today with the OBV moving up. Wait for confirmation tomorrow, in this current market who knows what will happen but with the big orders coming in the later part of the day it looks encouraging!


----------



## Mickel

Jonathan111 said:


> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/media_news_articles/LNC-Presentation-630.pdf
> 
> pentland and emerald approx $1b?
> 
> _"Two other non‐core coal assets will be for sale for approx AUD1 billion"_




Hi Jonathan

Those two coal assets are Teresa and one 85km-150km NW of Hughenden which they are currently drilling.
The Pentland asset has previously been valued by LNC at $50M.

There has not been much mention of this tenement NW of Hughenden but the tenements are in the list in the Mar 2011 qrtly report.


----------



## dogeatdog

Nice little start to todays trading session. 
SP hovering arond A$3.20

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-333.pdf

Lnc holder.


----------



## dogeatdog

I've been scouring the media for any new Linc related news, without success this weekend.
The US market in particular was hit hard last week, which usually effects the ASX.
I'm obviously bullish with Linc, but have recently hedged to cover any short term downturn.
It's becoming a wee bit tough to judge what's going to happen with the Linc sp since the recent acquisitions, spudding in Arckaringa Basin, and the ongoing coal tenement sale.
Any technicals, or general thoughts out there?

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

God only knows what is going to happen !!

I suppose one given should be that sometime in the next 1-2 months LNC will announce an unconditional sale on Teresa. That would be worth another $500m + ($1 per/share ) One would think that should give some boost to the SP 

Possible oil/gas flows in Arkaringa ? Progress on EOR developments in USA ? Announcements on successful completion of Beta cell for hydrogen fuel cell ? Other deals for UCG developments ? 

On paper LNC should really start to hit its straps by end of 2011. Whether that makes any difference to the share in a stagnant or falling market is another question.  And if there is big sell off I just can't see how/why LNC is not going to swept up.

*But that wouldn't change the actual coal/oil resources, the value of the UCG and EOR technology and cash in the bank. 
*


----------



## Brian Acheson

Fellow Linc Holders
Does anyone know what Justyn Peters was referring to in his boardroom radio announcement on the 07/06/2011 regarding what he said  “We are in the process of securitizing the Adani royalty stream, that should give us another $500,000.00”. He also suggested they would have over $1,080,000,000.00 in the bank by the end of this year. I don’t think this figure includes the sale of what they are referring to as the Northern Tenements, as they are still drilling to identifying the extent of the resource they have there.

Brian


----------



## basilio

Brian Acheson said:


> Fellow Linc Holders
> Does anyone know what Justyn Peters was referring to in his boardroom radio announcement on the 07/06/2011 regarding what he said  “We are in the process of securitizing the Adani royalty stream, that should give us another $500,000.00”. He also suggested they would have over $1,080,000,000.00 in the bank by the end of this year. I don’t think this figure includes the sale of what they are referring to as the Northern Tenements, as they are still drilling to identifying the extent of the resource they have there.
> 
> Brian




Last year LNC sold it's coal deposit for $500m cash plus a $2 a ton royalty for all coal that would produced over the next 20 years from the mine.

At the time Adani said it was intending to produce around 50 million tonnes a year of coal from 2014 onwards.  It is possible for LNC to sell this guaranteed revenue stream to another party  for immediate cash (obviously for other investments .)  It sounds as if that is the process they are taking.


----------



## Mickel

Brian Acheson said:


> Fellow Linc Holders
> Does anyone know what Justyn Peters was referring to in his boardroom radio announcement on the 07/06/2011 regarding what he said  “We are in the process of securitizing the Adani royalty stream, that should give us another $500,000.00”. He also suggested they would have over $1,080,000,000.00 in the bank by the end of this year. I don’t think this figure includes the sale of what they are referring to as the Northern Tenements, as they are still drilling to identifying the extent of the resource they have there.
> 
> Brian




Thanks for referring to this broadcast, Brian.

Justyn mentioned $360M in the bank and trebling it by end of this year. ie

Bank                               $360M
Sale of Teresa                  $500M min
Selling the Adani royalty     $500M min

Total                              $1360M min  
I think that is their aim. Whether it all comes to pass by Dec 31 2011 is another matter given their record.

The link to this presentation is-

http://www.brr.com.au/event/81513/l...ecutive-general-manager-of-investor-relations


----------



## basilio

It's interesting to have a look at the state of almost all the second and third tier shares over the past couple of months when discussing where LNC stands.

Fact is a quick check on most  shares, particularly the second and thirds tiers ones will show quite steep falls in May and June. Lack of buyers, general economic concern and I guess some tax loss selling has seriously affected SP across the board.

*Not so with LNC* It was around $2.90 in late April and fell to $2.70 in early May. It currently stands at $3.15.  In the circumstances thats pretty creditable. 

The background facts are that LNC appears confident of selling it's next coal mine with  a $500m + price. And the income prospects from the recent EOR developments appear immediate and very profitable.

I don't think this value will necessarily be immediately reflected in a booming SP. But at some stage sheer financial results will have to have some effect. This could a very good time to accumulate in a cashed up, resource rich company.


----------



## Atomic

Wheres my dividend cheques PB.

I'm sure there ready to be sent out , i want a big healthy 5c per share


----------



## Mickel

Atomic said:


> Wheres my dividend cheques PB.
> 
> I'm sure there ready to be sent out , i want a big healthy 5c per share




You've received your dividend for this F/Y Atomic. Hopefully there will be another dividend of at least 10c in the first half of the 11/12 F/Y after LNC sells Teresa.


----------



## Atomic

Mickel said:


> You've received your dividend for this F/Y Atomic. Hopefully there will be another dividend of at least 10c in the first half of the 11/12 F/Y after LNC sells Teresa.




not quite , but i can still dream , 10c would be top shelf too.

would fire up the sp around divi time too


----------



## dogeatdog

Another medium term project announced.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-334.pdf

PB is certainly pushing in the US.

LNC Holder.


----------



## basilio

All very good with the Alaskan project - but it is years ahead and money out.

I just want to see the colour of the money on the Teresa sale.  This is a very good time to have big deals settled and money in a very safe bank. I don't like what is happening in Greece.


----------



## martin35

Mickel said:


> From this latest announcement and previous ones, I will attempt to extrapolate future earnings.
> 
> So, current production from 1 Aug 2011- 3500 bopd increasing to 10,000 bopd by Dec 2011, then increasing to 20,000 bopd min by Dec 2012, then increasing to 100,000 bopd by June 2016.
> 
> Aug 2011 3,500pd, Sept 3,500pd, Oct 5,000pd, Nov 7,500pd, Dec 10,000 pd        Total     883500
> 
> with only 24 days production in Dec. Also only 24 days production in Jan & Dec 2012.
> 
> Jan 2012 10,000pd, Feb & Mar 12,000pd, Apr & May 14,000pd, Jun & Jul 16,000pd, Aug & Sep 18,000 pd
> 
> Oct&Nov19,000pd,Dec20,000pd                                                                                                          Total    5,515,000
> 
> So total production from Aug  2011 to Dec 2012      =                                                          6,398,500
> 
> At $100 per boo & costs @ $40 boo  6,398,500 X $60      = $383,910,000
> 
> With say an adjusted purchase price of say $240M & therefore borrowings of $180M with interest only  at 5%pa until maturity in Dec 2012, then interest-  180M X 5%pa for 1yr 5 mths = $12.75M + repayt of 180 M = $192.75
> 
> So profit is $192.75M  EBITA for 17mths oil production in USA on LNC capital of only $60M
> 
> I realise that I haven't accounted for the extra funding required for expansion as it would normally be drawn down progressivley. If the entire $60M ($300M- $240M) is drawn down then the interest would be less than $4M. So $192.75M less $64M is $128.75M EBITA
> 
> Using the same sale price and cost price for a barrel of oil, then I believe the following is achievable-
> 
> 6 Mths to June 2013 - $60 gross profit X12000 booX 175 days      = $126M
> 
> 12Mths to June 2014 $60 gross profit X  14,000 boo X 350 days   = $294M
> 
> 12 Mths to June 2015 $60 gross profit X 18,000 boo X 350 days   = $378M
> 
> 12 mths to June 2016 $60 gross profit X 20,000 boo X 350 days   = $420M
> 
> Total profit over 3.5 yrs                                                                              $1,218M EBITA
> 
> I consider that this is a conservative estimate of potential earnings and not realised by the general investor. Perhaps RBS will assist to correct with regular Broker reports.
> 
> I welcome any discussion on this estimate.
> 
> LNC Holder




Whilst you should be congratulated for attempting to do the calcs, the more I look at this Company the more opportunities I see for it. Many of these cannot be quantified atm. Here are a few that leap to mind. Use of UCG cavities for CC, arrangements with AFC Fuel Cells, more discoveries of oil, capital gains from buying an selling other coal reserves which no one else can use, Deals in China and India, the list just is so very long.


----------



## dogeatdog

martin35 said:


> Whilst you should be congratulated for attempting to do the calcs, the more I look at this Company the more opportunities I see for it. Many of these cannot be quantified atm. Here are a few that leap to mind. Use of UCG cavities for CC, arrangements with AFC Fuel Cells, more discoveries of oil, capital gains from buying an selling other coal reserves which no one else can use, Deals in China and India, the list just is so very long.




Whilst I'm in total agreement with you m35, I feel on a knifes edge with the current global situation.
Sitting here watching the tail end of trading in Europe, and the opening of the North American market. It's not good, unless ones portfolio is primarly short. 
Confirmation of the next tenement sale, please PB......Fingers crossed. 

LNC holder.


----------



## martin35

dogeatdog said:


> Whilst I'm in total agreement with you m35, I feel on a knifes edge with the current global situation.
> Sitting here watching the tail end of trading in Europe, and the opening of the North American market. It's not good, unless ones portfolio is primarly short.
> Confirmation of the next tenement sale, please PB......Fingers crossed.
> 
> LNC holder.



 thanx DOGEATDOG
What I find amazing is that anyone ever bought Greek bonds. Greece has widely been known as corrupt and badly run. Also nearly all of Europe has been mugged by socialist politicians wasting our money. As Margaret Thatcher once said "The trouble with socialism is that, quite soon, you run out of other peoples money!"
I personally feel Linc is a very safe share. It has huge coal reserves that very few other people can use, it is a leader in UCG, it is a leader in GTL technology, it is getting on well in Carbon capture, and it owns 12.5% of AFC whose fuel cell is highly likely to be demonstrated as a world beater to rival the steam turbine. It is also a 0ne bagger for me which gives a nice cushion in case of a world flight from shares. I see short-termism as more dangerous than long-termism. But I am a great believer in diversity and hold about 40 different shares in my portfolio.


----------



## dogeatdog

martin35 said:


> thanx DOGEATDOG
> What I find amazing is that anyone ever bought Greek bonds. Greece has widely been known as corrupt and badly run. Also nearly all of Europe has been mugged by socialist politicians wasting our money. As Margaret Thatcher once said "The trouble with socialism is that, quite soon, you run out of other peoples money!"
> I personally feel Linc is a very safe share. It has huge coal reserves that very few other people can use, it is a leader in UCG, it is a leader in GTL technology, it is getting on well in Carbon capture, and it owns 12.5% of AFC whose fuel cell is highly likely to be demonstrated as a world beater to rival the steam turbine. It is also a 0ne bagger for me which gives a nice cushion in case of a world flight from shares. I see short-termism as more dangerous than long-termism. But I am a great believer in diversity and hold about 40 different shares in my portfolio.




Good old "Maggy". A controversial, but strong leader.

_http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-335.pdf_

Long term Linc will be a major winner, but as history has shown, when the Brown stuff hits the fan, the share price can easily dive like a stone. (IMHO)

I'm now down to eleven equity holdings, across the various markets, in fear of a major correction.

LNC holder


----------



## dogeatdog

4% decline in the sp today :dunno:
Only good thing about that, is I managed to sell a short position placed on June the 7th, and made enough money to cover the cfd finance costs, and then some.
Will be kicking myself if a further decline happens tomorrow.
Any updated thoughts or info out there people?


----------



## basilio

Pretty ugly alround. I think market sentiment has a lot to do with the fall. There is a smell of fear around the place.

I think the short sellers would also be getting into the market at this stage. 

On a practical sense LNC is not going to fall over with $300m + in the bank and (hopefully) some actual oil revenue coming within the next  few months. *It would be great though to tick off the Teresa coal sale and really get cashed up*

In the longer term though I wouldn't be surprised if all stocks stagnate or fall almost regardless of actual achievements. The overall financial structures around the world are problematical and it is very hard to see a return to the (mindless ?) optimism we had pre GFC.

In my view I think companies will have to be very collaborative and very creative to stay attractive to the investing public. LNC has always kept a high public profile  and I suspect it will need to keep this up and in fact expand these efforts in the face of general market difficulties.


----------



## martin35

basilio said:


> Pretty ugly alround. I think market sentiment has a lot to do with the fall. There is a smell of fear around the place.
> 
> I think the short sellers would also be getting into the market at this stage.
> 
> On a practical sense LNC is not going to fall over with $300m + in the bank and (hopefully) some actual oil revenue coming within the next  few months. *It would be great though to tick off the Teresa coal sale and really get cashed up*
> 
> In the longer term though I wouldn't be surprised if all stocks stagnate or fall almost regardless of actual achievements. The overall financial structures around the world are problematical and it is very hard to see a return to the (mindless ?) optimism we had pre GFC.
> 
> In my view I think companies will have to be very collaborative and very creative to stay attractive to the investing public. LNC has always kept a high public profile  and I suspect it will need to keep this up and in fact expand these efforts in the face of general market difficulties.




Clean Global Energy has put out an ASX announcement about a shake up of their Board. Looks like they are not doing too well. Queensland Government obviously giving them a hard time. Any opinions if this is good or bad for Linc. Living in UK it is hard to get a feel for what id going on there.


----------



## snowking

on the back of the latest acquisition in Alaska, RBS has upgraded its target price from $3.25 to $3.75 based on a higher earnings estimate.


----------



## dogeatdog

snowking said:


> on the back of the latest acquisition in Alaska, RBS has upgraded its target price from $3.25 to $3.75 based on a higher earnings estimate.




Earnings estimates seem to have little effect during these troubled times it seems.
If those plonkers in Athens vote against the proposed austerity measures , a sp of $3.25 will seem a long way off when they default, and the markets crash. (IMHO)
Let's hope that scenario can be avoided.
Pleasant weekend people 

LNC holder.


----------



## Jonathan111

This firm have $3.75 as of 23rd June report. 
short term 0 - 60 days

_"revised valuation includes very conservative outcomes 
…large upside potential if LNC can deliver any oil, let alone 50,000bpd"_


i found this link to a detailed report on another site, here:

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2ENSFGAG


----------



## stacks

Jonathan111 said:


> This firm have $3.75 as of 23rd June report.
> short term 0 - 60 days
> 
> _"revised valuation includes very conservative outcomes
> …large upside potential if LNC can deliver any oil, let alone 50,000bpd"_
> 
> 
> i found this link to a detailed report on another site, here:
> 
> http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2ENSFGAG




3.75 in 60 days? optimistic... but would be nice


----------



## basilio

All looks good on paper.  But the market is not buying it at the moment. Trouble is all we are see at the moment in the market  is fear. And that has already driven almost all prices down including LNC. And remember that the Teresa sale seems fairly locked down.  Panic comes later.

The hope we have is that when the dust settles a company with as diverse an energy resource base as LNC plus some outstanding technology capacities will be left standing.


----------



## Mickel

Good news on AFC Energy as it gets closer to commercialisation of its technology.

"Developing a technology of this magnitude capable of providing such power has undoubtedly come with its own problems and delays, but it appears that AFC Energy is certainly going to get there. The company has several high profile collaborative partners including Linc Energy, Centrica and AkzoNobel, one of the two Beta systems currently being prepared by AFC will be tested at AkzoNobel for which a Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) is currently been conducted. Although AFC had originally underestimated the length of time this process can take to complete, the company has reported that good progress is being made and there are no onerous re-design requirements. The system which is been built at the company's premises at Dunsfold in Surrey has already incorporated the emerging improvements from the  HAZOP study and the company has completed the first phase of the commssioning process..."

http://stockeye.weebly.com/2/post/2...first-stage-of-beta-system-commissioning.html


----------



## Jonathan111

stacks said:


> 3.75 in 60 days? optimistic... but would be nice




 must have meant 2.75?

The Coal Sale is dragging on... I wonder if the recent world events have slowed the progress down..  Atleast Dr Bond has purchased $1 million worth of shares...

An Arkaringa drilling update should be on the horizon.


----------



## mexican

Would be nice if LNC got this contract!!!


http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8269384/peabody-shenhua-in-key-mongolian-coal-pro


----------



## Mickel

My view is that, no matter how bad the details of the Carbon Tax announcement on Sunday will be, at least the worst case scenario will be known. 

Companies, particuliarly Coal Mining companies assessing a potential new coal mine (Teresa), will then know how the tax will affect the proposed project and be able to determine what they can profitably pay for the proposed mine.

So, hopefully within the next 2 weeks, we will have a sale of Teresa. Of course, one PB will have to agree with the highest bidder.

Fingers crossed.

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

I think that LNC could do very, very well out of the carbon Tax scheme. It's strong suit is UCG technology which will dramatically reduce CO2 emissions. The ace would be combining UCG with the Hydrogen fuel cell to produce almost unlimited base load electricity from coal with almost no CO2 emissions. 

The AFC fuel cell is very close to trial  operations and fullscale productions. It seems to be a cheap, upscaleable product that could conceivably in a few years offer a clear alternative to coal fired power stations minus the CO2.  

*And LNC holds the rights to the AFC technology as well as having some of the most proven UCG processes that  can deliver the gas. Game changer. IMO  *


----------



## Mickel

LNC has settled purchase of UMIAT oil field in Alaska-

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110708/pdf/41znyhy8y6lj46.pdf


----------



## basilio

That Alaskan field seems like a HUGE deal.  1 Billion barrels of oil... potentially. Certainly around 200-400 MB already 

Cost price seemed relatively peanuts ($50M) while of course development costs will be much greater. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the market to recognise the possibility that LNC has a very big upside in 1-3 years  and  seemingly a very small downside at the current SP.


----------



## Jonathan111

_Metallurgical coal production in Australia is dominated by an alliance between BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi , which yields more than 58 million tonnes per year and accounts for about a fifth of global trade. 

Narayanan said India was prepared to compete against other foreign interests with strong government backing, particularly from China, for mines in Australia, the world's largest supplier of metallurgical coal.
_
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7I41VY20110705?sp=true




_Around 30 global coal companies are keen to secure port capacity at Queensland's Abbot Point terminal by participating in a A$6.2bn ($6.6bn) expansion program, the state government revealed on Tuesday_
http://www.steelbb.com/us/?PageID=157&article_id=94715


Gillard to release her plan now.


----------



## dogeatdog

This article, although not directly related to Linc energy, maybe interesting to those non Australian based investors.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Bid-Australian-coal-miner-reuters_molt-3060458321.html;_ylt=Al.k14rmUCoTiHmGQzE.L7vSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4OTE5Nm9pBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiaWRmb3JhdXN0cmE-?x=0

Hopefully the release of the carbon tax details, will help clear the way for Linc's next coal tenement sale, very soon 

LNC Holder


----------



## basilio

Well certainly the bid for Macarther Coal suggests that Australian coal resources will still be in demand.  Hopefully this is concentrating the minds of competing bidders for the Teresa bidders.

Hopefully sooner rather than later.

It's interesting to reflect back around 12 months ago just prior to the Galilee sale. There was a sharp increase in SP before the sale from $1.00 to around $1.80.  Then when the sale was announced -   around $3b value  and essentially guaranteeing LNC's financial future - *the shares actually dropped*. Despite all the "analysis" which valued LNC at $3 + with the confirmed sale  it rarely reached those levels and retreated under pressure

Since then there have been a number of very big announcements regarding new oil fields in Wyoming and Alaska, the opportunities for  increasing oil yields via CO2 injection and now the seeming imminent announcement of another substantial  coal sale worth at least $500m ($1 per share) . Yet the SP stands less than $1 over the  price  just before the Galilee coal sale !! Surely  the value has to be seen soon.


----------



## Jonathan111

basilio said:


> Well certainly the bid for Macarther Coal suggests that Australian coal resources will still be in demand.  Hopefully this is concentrating the minds of competing bidders for the Teresa bidders.




PB talks about the last sale...

PB should write a book about his philosophy and his experiences.

http://www.maddisons.com.au/blog/pe...boardroom-series-in-the-zone-with-peter-bond/


----------



## Mickel

US broker Madison Williams states in their updated research report, discussing the cancelled ERG Resources contract, that the-

"Deal could still materialize eventually. The developments present three
scenarios for how things might play out going forward.
1. ERG could potentially cure the defects, allowing the deal to eventually
proceed.
2. The companies could part ways amicably.
3. The dispute could result in litigation over the modest initial deposit."

They confirm that their 12 mth price target remains unchanged at $3.50 but would be rerated on a coal tenement sale and/or other drilling news, upstream US activities incl the possible eventual purchase of the ERG asset.

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/Linc Energy July 20, 2011 Research Report.pdf

The LNC S/P has risen from $2.76 on 18/7 to currently $2.91 today. Of course the ASX has also risen strongly this week- All Ords (XAO) 136 pts to 4677 at present.


----------



## bloubul

Mickel said:


> "Deal could still materialize eventually. The developments present three
> scenarios for how things might play out going forward.
> 1. ERG could potentially cure the defects, allowing the deal to eventually
> proceed.
> 2. The companies could part ways amicably.
> 3. The dispute could result in litigation over the modest initial deposit."




It seems that none of the above 3 is going to happen. 

I can't find any details as to the real reasons behind the termination of contracts but ERG must have really pi$$ed PB off  when Linc did the due dilligence. 

This could turn nasty and I hope it's settled quickly so it doesn't have any adverse impact on SP.


----------



## dogeatdog

bloubul said:


> It seems that none of the above 3 is going to happen.
> 
> I can't find any details as to the real reasons behind the termination of contracts but ERG must have really pi$$ed PB off  when Linc did the due dilligence.
> 
> This could turn nasty and I hope it's settled quickly so it doesn't have any adverse impact on SP.




http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-339.pdf
An unwanted distraction, which seems to have knocked the sp back today 

LNC holder.


----------



## basilio

Starting to get impatient with the non-announcement of the Teresa coal sale. As the economic clouds darken having a healthy bank account to finance the  oil/ coal- oil and other developments would give everyone a safer feeling. 

And there certainly isn't any sense that the broader share market is holding LNC as a quality share in the past few days.


----------



## dogeatdog

Oh dear!
Linc down 14% as I write.
Inevitable I guess following the US close last night.
And I thought I was getting  a bargain with a recent purchase at 2.61:bonk:
I guess we are in for a rough ride with long positions.

LNC holder


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Been following this one. Good time to buy in, yeh?


----------



## basilio

Looks like the ERG oil deal is back on the table. Be good to see some decent cash flow in the foreseeable future.


http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc&f=pdf


----------



## basilio

Big news day for LINC...! Update on Teresa coal sale to remind the market there should be $500m plus coming to account in the short term. Now down to 4 final bidders.

Other interesting news is that AFC (Alkaline Fuel cell) in UK has just announced completion of the HAZOP procedures for its beta fuel cell. That suggests there could be commercial production projects in the near future. LNC has 12.5% of AFC as well as an interest in using the fuel cell for producing emission free electricity via its UCG produced syngas 

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-342.pdf
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L


----------



## basilio

LNC has posted an update from Madison Williams to remind the market of it's cash position, near term sale of Teresa and wide range of projects. Obviously hasn't had any impact in the current market.

It does concern me that there isn't enough institutional nous and analysis to slow down LINC's share collapse. For example a very small company like MAD is  falling but nowhere near as dramatically.  There seems to be a core of investors who are recognising it's value and buying in. Not sure if any other shares are in a similar position.

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/Linc Energy August 8, 2011 Research Report.pdf


----------



## basilio

( Am I creating embarrassing records for consecutive posts on a thread? )

AFC has just announced the successful commissioning of it's first Beta cell hydrogen fuel cell.  The company is conducting testing and development work on the cells in support of commercialization and is deploying additional beta systems with collaborative partners like AkoNobel.

AFC has jumped from 36p to 49 p in the past few days on news on the completion of hazard tests and successful commissioning of the Beta cell

LNC has 12.5% of AFC and also holds the rights to market the fuel cells for use with UCG projects around the world. It offers the opportunity of creating flexible, baseload, cost effective , *CO2 free* electricity  wherever they can source appropriate underground coal deposits.

I think this is big..

http://www.afcenergy.com/news/latest_news/first_fuelcell_commissioned.html


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> LNC has 12.5% of AFC and also holds the rights to market the fuel cells for use with UCG projects around the world. It offers the opportunity of creating flexible, baseload, cost effective , *CO2 free* electricity  wherever they can source appropriate underground coal deposits.
> 
> *I think this is big..*
> 
> http://www.afcenergy.com/news/latest_news/first_fuelcell_commissioned.html




I agree Bas. I hope one of the updated units is on its way to Chinchilla for further testing.

Hopefully the longstanding loyal shareholders (and some more recent ones) will be rewarded in the short term.


----------



## luckypaul

In the June 30th Quarterly Report from Linc http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110729/pdf/42029xrqlcr5sj.pdf they told us 2 facts regarding their first oil/gas well at Arckaringa-

a) Page 5:-







> *Linc Energy spuds its first well in the Arckaringa Basin  *On June 9th 2011 Linc Energy announced it had spudded its first oil and gas exploration well as part of its program for the Arckaringa Basin in South Australia. Known as Haystack 1, the well will be drilled to 1,200m or 3,800 feet.




b) Page 7:- 







> *Arckaringa Basin Update* Hunt Rig 3 was accepted and spud Haystack 1 oil and gas well (PEL121) during June. The well was at 468m at the end of the period with a forecast depth of 1200m.




If they were at 468m on June 30th gives a drill rate of 22.3m per day. That means 1200m will take approx 54 days ("approx" as obviously the type of rock they have to drill through will change and impact the drilling speed). That means they would have hit their target drill depth on July 30th! 

So I would guess that makes *drill results imminent! * 

Although finding oil/gas, even by professional/experienced oil companies, seems to be like trying to find a needle in a Haystack (pun intended) a positive result here WOULD make this stock soar rather more than this annoyingly illusive coal sale! . 

*Gentlemen, place your bets please!*


----------



## Brian Acheson

It would indeed be interesting to know how Linc was doing in the Archaringa Basin?

Not sure if this has been posted before or not but following is a link to a news letter by Altona Energy an AIM listed company also working in the Archaringa Basin, Interesting read :http://www.altonaenergy.com/pdfs/april_newsletter.pdf

Brian


----------



## dogeatdog

Gloomy times ahead it seems.
With the apparent lack of strong political leadership and will in the US and Europe, a return to recession appears imminent.
This article is interesting, and relative to Linc.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/from-pit-to-port-indias-10bn-coal-export-plan/story-fn59niix-1226118491805

LNC holder


----------



## basilio

dogeatdog said:


> Gloomy times ahead it seems.
> With the apparent lack of strong political leadership and will in the US and Europe, a return to recession appears imminent.
> This article is interesting, and relative to Linc.
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/from-pit-to-port-indias-10bn-coal-export-plan/story-fn59niix-1226118491805
> 
> LNC holder




Thanks  Doggie. Good story. Certainly seems  Adani is intent on making it's LNC coal investment effective and profitable. Making sure that no one else takes shark size chunks out of the deal along the way is excellent business sense. And it emphasizes the long term nature of the project VS shorter term issues

From LNC shareholder POV it strengthens the certainty and value of the residual royalties - around $100m + a year for 20 years at 2010 prices.  That is not small potatoes.

Be interesting to see if this encourages participants in the sale of the Teresa coal mine to jump into the project with a similar long term perspective. Nothing like someone else leading the way to encourage  others to follow !


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Thanks  Doggie. Good story. Certainly seems  Adani is intent on making it's LNC coal investment effective and profitable. Making sure that no one else takes shark size chunks out of the deal along the way is excellent business sense. And it emphasizes the long term nature of the project VS shorter term issues
> 
> From LNC shareholder POV it strengthens the certainty and value of the residual royalties - around $100m + a year for 20 years at 2010 prices.  That is not small potatoes.
> 
> Be interesting to see if this encourages participants in the sale of the Teresa coal mine to jump into the project with a similar long term perspective. Nothing like someone else leading the way to encourage  others to follow !




Yes. Great story Doggie ! That's $2.00 per ton royalty (in 2010 AUD adjusted for inflation) and the article states they are planning for 60M tons pa from 2020. That could be $150M in 2020.
Of course LNC are said to be in the process of selling the royalty stream so we may see some $$$$ much earlier. Refer this analyst report Feb 2011-
http://www.austock.com/pdf/LNC180211.pdf


----------



## Brian Acheson

The following is to a link on the Technology of EOR using CO2.
It sites one of the main factors as the availability and cost of CO2
http://www.globalccsinstitute.com/c...-available-download-co2-eor-and-transition-ca


----------



## dogeatdog

This is another article relevant to Linc energy.
It perhaps highlights a reason the next coal tenement sale is taking longer than anticipated.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/costs-may-mar-high-hopes-for-galilee-basin/story-e6freqmx-1226073945951

LNC Holder.


----------



## basilio

dogeatdog said:


> This is another article relevant to Linc energy.
> It perhaps highlights a reason the next coal tenement sale is taking longer than anticipated.
> http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/costs-may-mar-high-hopes-for-galilee-basin/story-e6freqmx-1226073945951
> 
> LNC Holder.




Could be.  LINC said they had 4 bidders and were now trying to get the best value from these players  Perhaps the general market fragility as well as the cost factors the article is referring to are reducing the estimated value LNC might  get from the sale. I seem to remember figures of $500m plus being thrown around earlier but the last ones mentioned were in the $450m band. 

Peter Bond has always wanted to achieve best value results for his sales. Maybe however  the Bird in the Hand proverb is most apt here.

It's also interesting that LNC is not recovering in any significant way from the steep falls of early August.  One would think that institutional analysis of LNC's oil  plays, current cash reserves as well as the impending coal sale would  bring out bargain hunters. But there hasn't been any sustained  rally.


----------



## Jonathan111

Is LNC going into Russia? they have lots of coal...  so does Africa..

Shale oil prospects in SA? interesting... I wonder if the basin is gas charged like the cooper basin, sands, shale, oil..

Beta fuel cell coming soon to chinchilla?

More drilling in Alaska? Has it started already?

Anything to report at Cloncurry\Richmond?

Gulf of Mexico sale completion anticipated soon. Same price?

Has oil production at the Ranch increased yet?

UCG Generator 5 commission at Chinchilla?

UCG permiting  in America for a demo plant? Will this turn into commerical plant?

When will they start injecting C02 for EOR and sequestration? Will it take about a year of pumping C02 before significant increases in production are seen?

Exciting news to come...

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...DWrcSB&sig=AHIEtbQG4-mcFVkfAu7475k41d7R-a6CLQ


----------



## basilio

Interesting  Jonothan Did you hear a whisper  on Firestone.?

Linc just announced a 9.6% stake in Firestone. The company has just had approvals for a coal development in South Africa and LNC wants the UCG and oil rights. Only cost them peanuts ( $1.8m ) and assuming it all goes according to Hoyle there should be some big bucks in the deal.

Naturally the SP has slumped yet again and now sub $2.00.  (I'm wondering when it will fall below  cash in bank value...)

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...te.ac?get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc


----------



## Jonathan111

Hi Basilio,

Its a great time to be buying into South African energy assets, they are at bargain basement prices, with Malema running his rein of terror scaring the hebbie gebbies out of investors.

Looking at Ann "Becoming a substantial holder from LNC" it looks as though they were buying in since 20th May 11?

I wish could hear whispers, there has been a bit of talk about South Africa from Linc and jobs advertised.

In regards to Teresa. The outlook for PCI coal is good. 

_Shenhua's board secretary, Huang Qing also told the newspaper that Shenhua was seeking to acquire overseas coking coal assets to meet China's rapidly growing steel demand, adding that it was currently looking at coking coal projects in Russia and Australia._
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7K501Y20110905





Cheers Jonathan

Rice Mills in China use Rice Husk Gasification.


----------



## bloubul

basilio said:


> The company has just had approvals for a coal development in South Africa and LNC wants the UCG and oil rights. Only cost them peanuts ( $1.8m ) and assuming it all goes according to Hoyle there should be some big bucks in the deal.
> [/url]




This should be interesting. I have just a few comments...
1. How will this benefit the LNC shareprice. The SARand has significantly devalued over the past 10 years. 
2. How did Sasol (Linc has a few of ex-Sasol engineers) not get into this resource
3. S-African Gov is strife with corruption. Lots of talk by ANC youthleague to nationalize resources and anything that makes cash .Which one of Zuma's son's is sitting behind Sekoko.
4. I hope Firestone has done their risk assesment.

I suppose $1.8mil is small change once QLD ten is sold.


----------



## basilio

bloubul said:


> This should be interesting. I have just a few comments...
> 1. How will this benefit the LNC shareprice. The SARand has significantly devalued over the past 10 years.
> 2. How did Sasol (Linc has a few of ex-Sasol engineers) not get into this resource
> 3. S-African Gov is strife with corruption. Lots of talk by ANC youthleague to nationalize resources and anything that makes cash .Which one of Zuma's son's is sitting behind Sekoko.
> 4. I hope Firestone has done their risk assesment.
> 
> I suppose $1.8mil is small change once QLD ten is sold.




Some good points Bloubal but you summed it up with your final comment regarding the $1.8m entry cost.
*
The significant point I see is that approval has finally been given for the coal project.  *That is a big hurdle in challenging economies. That suggests the show will be on the road in the near future.

LNC's value will come from UCG, as well as oil and gas rights to the project.  They see the possibility of mining the underground coal and turning it into diesel or power. So for a measly $1.8 m they get 10% of the action with the coal mine and 100%  access to the underground coal and any oil  or gas (I imagine they will end up paying some royalty in any deal).  Local  cost effective power generation and local production of diesel will be well valued in South Africa.

Not a bad deal.


----------



## Mr Z

It would be kinda hard to nationalize an operation that you can't operate. Hugo is screwing up his nationalized oil fields for lack of expertise and oil tech is widely understood, imagine what a mess the SA lot would make of Linc's operations?


----------



## Smurf1976

Mr Z said:


> It would be kinda hard to nationalize an operation that you can't operate. Hugo is screwing up his nationalized oil fields for lack of expertise and oil tech is widely understood, imagine what a mess the SA lot would make of Linc's operations?



For the record, PDVSA (the Venezuela national oil company) was pretty highly regarded for its technical expertise prior to Hugo and his revolution which essentially trashed it.

There are competent operators in nationalised companies - it's just that they get fired pronto when a socialist revolution comes along.

I was not an employee, but I had a bit of involvement with PDVSA circa 1999 - 2000. They knew their stuff at the time.


----------



## alexc2005

Shouldn't the buyback have increased the value?

Seems like a good buy at the moment?


----------



## skc

alexc2005 said:


> Shouldn't the buyback have increased the value?




Compared to what? This is only the case if the market had it "right" before the buyback announcement. 

What if LNC was over-valued by 50% last week? The buyback increases the value by 10% but it still is 40% over-valued... (hypothetical example only and all numbers fabricated out of thin air).


----------



## dogeatdog

alexc2005 said:


> Shouldn't the buyback have increased the value?
> 
> Seems like a good buy at the moment?




So many "under valued" stocks out there it would seem, but with investors expecting a dd recession, a Greek default, so many sovereign debt issues etc, who knows what's a "good buy".

The recent "buyback" announcement, possible from the 26th of September, offers a option for the company to buy back it's shares. It's not obligated to do so.
Could be a simple marketing tool, to try and infuse some confidence. 

Linc need to start showing tangible income, from all their stranded coal. Still no news on  the proposed 5000bpd modular units. (Wasn't that what the "diesel dash" was all about? 

PB is obviously setting the company up for the long haul, with all the land tenements around the globe. 
I'm personally fearful that going after stranded, and speculative O&G reserves, leaves the company, and it's sp, extremely susceptible to major swings. 
(All IMHO)

LNC holder.


----------



## dogeatdog

To add further to my previous post, relating to UCG module:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/AFC-Energy-raises-new-cash-stockopedia-2092661111.html?x=0&.v=1

Not a AFC share holder.


----------



## basilio

I think the income LNC will make in the short medium term will come from the oil investments in Wyoming and possibly the drilling in the  Arckaringa Basin  South Australia. (and what has happened to that first spud ?)

The Teresa coal sale should be put to bed in quick time before the market gets any scarier. The cash will be essential to finance EOR  developments in Wyoming as well as the modular UCG to diesel  plants. (And again what is happening here ?)

The other dark horse could be the  AFC fuel cell development. It seems as if the beta fuel cell is now operational and conceivably 2012 could see  the first  power stations  using UCG gas to produce CO2 free electricity at competitive prices. If the clean energy bill is passed then this offers an excellent opportunity for LNC to be a big player in clean energy production in Australia and overseas. And LNC can also gasify above ground coal to produce the same CO2 free electricity.

But who knows how the market will react if/when Greece falls and the  chips start to crash.  We could end up with LNC being valued at less than cash in the bank if the Teresa sale goes through and market continues to fall! Wouldn't be the first time this has happened.


----------



## basilio

I'm not sure if I'm reading too much into this but I think the imminent commercialization of the AFC fuel cell could be an absolute bonanza for LNC.  Apart from LNC's direct 12.5% stake in the company they hold the rights to using the fuel cell in conjunction with their UCG and above ground coal gasification technology.

The fuel cell is cheap, elegant, scalable and *and now operational.* Coupled with UCG or above ground gasification, it can turn  hydrogen into clean electricity at very competitive prices. 

There is an excellent UK investment thread that discusses the AFC fuel cell. Well worth a read to get a feel for where it currently sits.

The company has just had an open day where they allowed investors to visit the plant and  become familiar with the fuel cell. The discussion thread has some great reports.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:AFC.L


----------



## Jonathan111

interesting webpage:
http://www.eser.org/

Click map to drill-down:
http://www.eser.org/unit-federal-no...eum-wyo-inc-converse-county-wyoming-34n-76w-5

Unit Federal No. 32, Cole Creek South Field, Linc Energy Petroleum Wyo Inc, Converse County, Wyoming, 34N-76W-5
Well Status: *Producing* Oil Well

Operator: Linc Energy Petroleum Wyo Inc


----------



## basilio

Very interesting Johnathon. Good find. In fact I counted 11 LNC wells that are currently producing oil or gas..

Certainly be interesting to know how much production is being achieved overall.


----------



## luckypaul

I have a conspiracy theory for you all! Following on from my August 15th post



> In the June 30th Quarterly Report from Linc they told us 2 facts regarding their first oil/gas well at Arckaringa-
> 
> a) Page 5:-
> 
> 
> 
> Linc Energy spuds its first well in the Arckaringa Basin On June 9th 2011 Linc Energy announced it had spudded its first oil and gas exploration well as part of its program for the Arckaringa Basin in South Australia. Known as Haystack 1, the well will be drilled to 1,200m or 3,800 feet. b) Page 7:-
> 
> 
> 
> Arckaringa Basin Update Hunt Rig 3 was accepted and spud Haystack 1 oil and gas well (PEL121) during June. The well was at 468m at the end of the period with a forecast depth of 1200m. If they were at 468m on June 30th gives a drill rate of 22.3m per day. That means 1200m will take approx 54 days ("approx" as obviously the type of rock they have to drill through will change and impact the drilling speed). That means they would have hit their target drill depth on July 30th!
> 
> So I would guess that makes drill results imminent!
> 
> Although finding oil/gas, even by professional/experienced oil companies, seems to be like trying to find a needle in a Haystack (pun intended) a positive result here WOULD make this stock soar rather more than this annoyingly illusive coal sale! .
> 
> Gentlemen, place your bets please!




we are still to get news on Linc's Haystack 1 well in South Australia. Why is that, why is it taking so long??

Either they are crap at drilling holes, are using cheese for drillbits or maybe, just maybe they have actually found some black stuff!  

If they did find something you would have thought that an announcement would be hot off the presses, especially as an oil find in a brand new area, over which Linc has a huge amount of tenements would be a company maker for sure. :bananasmi:holysheep:

Now what if (and all this is pure speculation on my part) by the time I made that discovery I had already suffered a hit to the stock price from global market termoil and had decided to take advantage of that with a share buy back of just over 25 million shares (5%) what would I do???? I have a dilema!

I would do the same as any stock trader would do and try to buy my shares cheap as possible price and THEN announce the oil find! That makes Linc management sound really sneaky but if they had planned and started to inform the ASX about the buy back prior to any oil find I doubt holding back on an RNS is in anyway illegal (or is it?). 

Now that sounds bad for us existing shareholders but is it really? The buy back would likely support the share price (25 million shares at a daily average of just 2.11 million would either take a while - or raise the price... or both) but that plus the concentration of our holdings in the company is a good thing!

Finish the buy back then announce the oil find (and they could use the interveining time to test flow rates and estimate the reserves etc, all legit activities - which take time).

Yes I have a wild imagination :screwy:  and THIS IS ALL SPECULATION but how else can you explain a 7 week delay on a project intended to be 7 weeks in duration? 

We certainly need a miracle to get Linc back up to $3 let alone $5 in these markets (which are just about to fall down the toilet again in my sad reality) so I hope I am near the mark.

A long term Linc Holder (but getting a little frustrated with it to be honest) :horse:


----------



## Jonathan111

Maybe they found shale oil? I think it was mentioned they were targeting this as well in the last Presentation.


----------



## basilio

Hey LuckyPaul can you *please, please,please * send over some that hooch your holding out on  !!

That is one great story you have come up with.

I cannot see in any universe how LNC could sit on information about an oil find in the Arckaringa drill. Just too, too illegal and dangerous and of course easy to discover later on. And honestly if there was some sort of find could you imagine the drillers , workers ect keeping their mouths shut for weeks while the company refused to  make an announcement ? Sorry just not feasible.

But it would be good to know WTF is happening anyway. It is a mystery why there have been no announcements. I suspect it has been a dry hole and they are still drilling until they run out of any hope and/or find some more underground coal as a consolation prize.

On another note did anyone see the sale of the Rinehart Galilee coal mine to the Indian conglomerate ?  Perhaps the extra development in the region will push the Teresa sale along.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/coal-assets-a-hot-item-20110918-1kfy7.html


----------



## luckypaul

Ha, Ha! Yes I know, my oil find conspiracy was mad but you never know. Just driven by imagination no liquids involved (sounds just like Linc at present)!

Why are Linc taking so long with *EVERYTHING* nowadays? Have they diversified too much...jack of all trades, master of none??

They are doing so much work on the coal sale to make it more juicy for the buyers they may as well buy a shovel and mine the blo*dy coal themselves! They have spent over two years on this - it is now of little value compared to the time and money spent on it. 

What happened to commercialising GTL? Other companies like Oxford Catalysts/Velosys (UK Aim market ticker: OCG) and Syntroleum (US: SYNM) are all taking the lead in this arena now. Why are Linc buying themselves (is that stock masutrbation??) when they could be buying OCG - with their microchannel Fischer Tropche reactors and catalysts business????

Another market crash is licking its lips as we wait and there is still such a market risk TO EVERYTHING now, selling at this price could be a good move. Unthinkable and financially painful (for me) but buying Linc stock back for $1.20 in 2 years is a definite possibility with markets giving it to any stock holder Greek style in the meantime!!! 

 

P.s. There is no way to resolve the current debt crisis withouth decades of austerity or default. Defaulting *WILL* happen for sure with all the associated impacts. Waaaaaa! 

Still a significant stock holder but now a very scared significant stock holder.


----------



## basilio

It was a good laugh Lucky and worth putting it out there.

I agree the scenario at present is scary and I can see your point about bailing out now and coming back in a couple of years. Perhaps a half bail out ?

I agree that stretching out this coal sale seems to be losing value for the company and possibly  risking the whole sale.  That would (obviously) hurt in the current climate. Don't really think they have overspent on improvements but we'll never know will we ?

The next few years will be interesting times. I suggest that if any companies are going to be worth investing and hanging onto their shares they will need to  produce an essential product and make a reasonable enough return to pay shareholders dividends and continue operations.

I suggest the days of mining companies  simply reinvesting  profits into more exploration and development and expecting shareholders to hold on while the SP wallows is unrealistic. Sincerely hope LNC establishes a good cash flow and follows this path.


----------



## luckypaul

Indian Company GVK invests heavily in Queensland...but not Linc.....at least yet? 

http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5429099/india-acquires-australian-coal-assets


----------



## Jonathan111

I am expecting some resolution on the ERG purchase soon.

Sasol is planning to build 96000bpd gtl plant in Louisiana..and another one in uzbekistan..doesnt look like linc is involved in either though.
http://www.southafrica.info/business/success/sasol-200911.htm

Linc must be producing something at Chinchilla if the smell is coming from them.

Teresa sale may come out of the blue now that the lnc share price has been smashed down, like last time.

Drilling at Cloncurry Richmond must be have happending too.


----------



## Jonathan111

•Project Manager, UCG at LINC ENERGY LTD 

_
"Currently my focus is on managing Linc's Wyoming UCG demonstration facility from our Casper, Wyoming office. We manage over 300,000 acres of coal leases." _

...


_"On a week to week basis I dealt with our Vietnamese and Japanese partners to move the project forward from the licensing stage to the implementation stage. Project budget was US$5.3MM and timing is soon. Currently I am managing operations for Linc first international UCG project in Casper, Wyoming. Scheduled commissioning date is 2011"_

http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_logo


----------



## Toolong

As a long time LNC holder, I've been watching this thread for a few years now.  I must say I can sense the optimism eroding even from Basilio (only slightly Basilio) but I'm a little frustrated with the lack of info from LNC of late.  I think until they start generating a solid revenue stream from one of the many possibilities I keep hearing about, the SP will continue to disappoint me.  I just hope they don't run out of money if they continue to spread themselves so widely.  Anyway I enjoy the posts guys, just hope our luck turns around, though not holding my breath.


----------



## basilio

Toolong said:


> As a long time LNC holder, I've been watching this thread for a few years now.  I must say I can sense the optimism eroding even from Basilio (only slightly Basilio) but I'm a little frustrated with the lack of info from LNC of late.  I think until they start generating a solid revenue stream from one of the many possibilities I keep hearing about, the SP will continue to disappoint me.  I just hope they don't run out of money if they continue to spread themselves so widely.  Anyway I enjoy the posts guys, just hope our luck turns around, though not holding my breath.




I think the whole market has just gone xhit scared. Objectively LNC still has (I think) $300m in the bank. The Wyoming oil wells should be producing some  worthwhile income. It *is* disappointing that the Teresa coal sale has not being finalised and as the economic clouds get darker one wonders if the price will fall substantially or the sale is even called off. Also the question of the Arckaringa drill should be addressed. It is way overdue for a report.

I think we should also brace for a fall in energy prices. If/when Greece fails and we see some real  terror in the financial markets I just can't see how this won't affect the economy.

At the depths of the GFC 1 there were at least some  companies selling at substantial discount to cash in the bank. (BRM for one ) I think the business model for companies overall may need to be modified if it is going to hold investor interest (and funds ) through very tough times.


----------



## basilio

There should be some significant news from LNC in the next day or so.

I was just scouting the AFC (Alkaline Fuel cell)  discussion page on Interactive Investor and  one of the posters noted that LNC would be putting out a newsletter imminently. When you go back to the April newsletter you can see there are a number of projects that should be starting to generate real dollars. In particular the Ranger oil wells in Wyoming should be starting to show the effect of initial operations upgrade.

Apparently LNC has also appointed a  Chief Executive David Smith to the AFC Board . Again I think it is clear that we will see the hydrogen fuel cell being used relatively soon to turn UCG gas into non polluting electricity.

Despite any news I can't see any upside to LNC SP at the moment. The market is rightly in a funk and (almost)  everything will be sold down.  On the bright side  this will be an excellent opportunity for cashed up and cash flow positive companies to buy  assets from struggling operations. (Just hope LNC is on the  right side of that deal !)

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L&display=discussion&it=le


----------



## luckypaul

I think the Linc buyback has started!

500,000 shares on open which took the SP up to $1.825 even after last nights chaos across the US markets. Another 250,000 sitting in the queue at $1.765

I think if I had to buy 25 million shares I would hang on a bit..... unless of course I had discovered oil as per my previous post - ha, ha!

At least the price may be supported at this sad level for a while.


----------



## Jonathan111

Investor Linc is out. 
Bus. plan update
Gen5
Gen6


----------



## basilio

luckypaul said:


> I think the Linc buyback has started!
> 
> 500,000 shares on open which took the SP up to $1.825 even after last nights chaos across the US markets. Another 250,000 sitting in the queue at $1.765
> 
> I think if I had to buy 25 million shares I would hang on a bit..... unless of course I had discovered oil as per my previous post - ha, ha!
> 
> At least the price may be supported at this sad level for a while.




Don't think so Lucky. According to the notice LNC released they can only start the buyback on 26th Sept.

I think some investors are recognising how underpriced LNC  currently is. If one accepts that the  remainder of the Adani sale is worth around $700m monetized then with the $300m in the bank LNC is already selling at  significantly less than cash value.


----------



## dogeatdog

A pleasant change to awake to good news.
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-348.pdf
The sp hit a high of 1.84, and is currently trading at 1.81.
In different times I'm sure the sp would have climbed much higher.

They have discovered hydro carbons in one of the three wells.
However two of the wells came up dry.
It's interesting that the good news has been released at the same time as the negative.
It's also interesting that just a few days ago, some very large trades were made.
Anyway let's hope this news can act as a positive catalyst for the company, and it's share holders.

LNC holder


----------



## basilio

> They have discovered hydro carbons in one of the three wells.
> However two of the wells came up dry.
> It's interesting that the good news has been released at the same time as the negative.
> It's also interesting that just a few days ago, some very large trades were made.
> Anyway let's hope this news can act as a positive catalyst for the company, and it's share holders. * Dogeatdog*




Looks like Lucky Paul was RIGHT when he prognosticated that NC was sitting on a huge oil find and were going to  buy back their shares  while they were so cheap !!  (well almost... )

I noticed that LNC did buy 830,00 shares  on Monday as part of its buyback. Seems as if the top prices for share buyback will be $1.91.

As for the  thousands of acres of shale oil.... Certainly interesting but it will be even more interesting to see if it can be economically extracted. What will be the cost of  production ? Will it ever make economic or environmental sense . (I could see some formidable environmental issues with this project.)

And as Doggie pointed out the other significant news  noted in the story was that the two drills to date have been dusters. No oil, no gas all tight.  

But hey at least it's on the way up and it can't hurt to have established the shale oil deposits. All potentially adds to LNC energy reserves 

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...te.ac?get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...te.ac?get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc


----------



## basilio

How big could this shale oil deposit be ? These are strictly back of envelope figures but offer some analysis.

According to Peter Bond the size of the deposit suggests around 200billion tonnes of shale. 

The analysis suggest between 25 -45 litres of oil per ton of shale. Say 32lit.

200billion x 32lit = 6.4 trillion litres of oil. At 160litres of oil p/barrel we see *40bboe*

Now reduce by a factor of 10 and we would still see *4bboe*

All very academic until it's actually properly assessed.


----------



## Smurf1976

Are we talking about oil pumped (in the conventional manner) from shale rock?

Or are we talking about mining actual oil shale and processing it to extract oil?

If it's the latter then (1) the resource is incredibly abundant globally and (2) even the likes of ExxonMobil have spent a fortune trying to use it only to fail to come up with a method that is profitable, safe and environmentally acceptable. (Oil can certainly be extracted, but not at a profit and/or without creating mayhem in the process).


----------



## basilio

Smurf1976 said:


> Are we talking about oil pumped (in the conventional manner) from shale rock?
> 
> Or are we talking about mining actual oil shale and processing it to extract oil?
> 
> If it's the latter then (1) the resource is incredibly abundant globally and (2) even the likes of ExxonMobil have spent a fortune trying to use it only to fail to come up with a method that is profitable, safe and environmentally acceptable. (Oil can certainly be extracted, but not at a profit and/or without creating mayhem in the process).




Dead right Smurf. Same issues I thought of.

Only comment that can throw some light on the situation was an observation in the report that suggested the oil extraction/processing could be done underground.

But  we can't have an informed discussion without adequately understanding the environment and cost issues.


----------



## luckypaul

Ah ha!   I get no pleasure from my conspiracy theory being slightly correct especially as I exited all of my remaining Linc stock at $1.88 and $1.80 last week. At least it proves companies do NOT have to release news as soon as it is known and can have some choice over when, I assume if they can control any leaks! Does anyone know what the rules really are on news releases??

The oil shale was good news and even made the news ticker on Bloomberg just now.  

Being an IT man by profession and NOT understanding the details I forwarded the news release to Greg, an Australian friend of mine with over 35 years in the oil business. I believe I am correct in saying he advises oil companies on take-over targets so should know what he is talking about re oil finds/potential etc.

These are his comments (as I said, I am in no position to comment on them) on the Linc RNS.



> Thanks for this and very interesting. Making sense of the technical is more in line with how the market reacted...maybe lucky sheep.
> 
> This is spin. The oil shale has not been naturally heated enough to generate significant amounts of oil. The report is very clear. Having said that the shale is quite rich for oil generation, should they find a point deep enough to generate oil in decent amounts.
> 
> The location shown as a new drillsite has been selected to penetrate the oil shale at the deepest known point in the basin. This may also be the area of richest oil source shale since the lake that made it was likely deepest at this point (good for organic material and anoxic bugs). But, by my calculation off their map it will be found only 100-200m deeper than what they have seen to date. So, it may still be early in the oil generation phase, or not. Depends on how much heat is in the rocks at the new location. The area of interest is not that large, so how much oil could be generated is another question to be answered. I think not much.
> 
> So, more huff and puff spin for the stockholders until this well is drilled. Don't be surprised if the press release is excellent quality oil shale, x metres thick, with some live oil shows (fluorescence and cut) but no bananas. More spin. As an optimistic view, what could change this is if there is higher heat flow, creating a larger area of mature oil shale. Then it has a chance.
> 
> I like their Alaska acreage a lot more than this dog pasture. And that is where their capital should be allocated.




As I said I am now no longer a Linc stock holder but will still follow it with interest. I had been a holder for over 5 years and originally got in at 66c before those lovely months when it headed up, almost daily, to above $5.10. What a ride that was? I then rode it back down to $1 after the 2008 crash (Mr Stupid with no stop losses and too much faith I was ). 

All in all our relationship has been mixed with good and bad times but to be honest, she turned into a bit of a bitch in the end! 

Anyway I wish you all good luck, I am off to buy lots of short ETFs


----------



## dogeatdog

PB certainly sounds convincing, whilst hinting in the following interview that Linc will "slow the program" for the remaining proposed seven wells. Not necessarily inspiring.
www.brr.com.au/event/87022/partner/theaustralian

I assume it wont take long for the experts to determine if this latest discovery warrants
a significant increase in the sp, or if it is indeed "spin".
The lack of volume after the announcement is worrying.
Your comments please 

LNC holder


----------



## basilio

As suggested by Smurf, Lucky Paul and myself there is a *looonnng *way to go before this shale oil find is proved commercially significant.  But really the value for LNC lies in completing the Teresa sale, getting the American and Alaskan oil fields into production and making the EOR systems operational.  Big bucks from Arckaringa would be welcome naturally and really I think they will  find some decent underground coal seams in all that space.

I suggest the rise today was an enthusiastic and desperate relief rally after the recent collapses. And certainly on any currently rational analysis LNC (and many other shares) are undervalued.

But then the overall world picture is far more problematic. What is the point of being the winner in the last poker game on the Titanic ? I can see Lucky Pauls perspective when he announced his exit from LNC. Really believe LNC needs to become cash flow positive as quickly as possible...


----------



## luckypaul

Linc to burn underground shale (a new twist)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/energy-company-linc-to-burn-underground-shale/story-e6frg8zx-1226148486523

Other reference (no burning in situ) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-27/linc-surges-on-significant-australian-oil-shale-discovery-2-.html which also mentions coal sale down to 2 possibles, India and China and aims to complete by the end of this year!


----------



## Smurf1976

The main problem I see with LNC is that they are becoming a "jack of all trades, master of none" by trying to do everything at once.

Imagine if Woolworths had built opened every supermarket, liquor store, service station, fashion and electronics retailer that they own all at once. No, what they actually did is start fairly small in one aspect of retail and then built themselves up from that base. Same with Coles.

Or what if Richard Branson (Virgin) had gone into the music, banking, airline, railway, mobile phone etc businesses by launching the whole lot all at once? The odds are very high that he'd have made a mess of the whole lot. Instead, he started with one then moved on to the next and so on. A quick Google search reveals an 18 year period between his first attempt at business (apparently unsuccessful) and then eventually launching an airline after having found success in the music business in the meantime. At no point did he try doing everything all at once.

Now consider Linc. Trying to find coal. Trying to find oil and gas. Trying to gassify coal underground. Now wanting to gassify oil shale in situ as well. Supposedly going to turn the gas into diesel. And wanting to build a few power stations as well.

I'd feel much happier if they just concentrated on getting something, _anything_, actually up and running before trying to become an energy conglomerate.

Are they in the business of exploring for coal, oil and gas then selling the discovery to someone else?

Are they in the upstream oil and gas business with the intention of producing oil and gas?

Are they in the business of gassifying coal and turning it into diesel?

Are they in the business of generating electricity for sale to utilities? (Or will their next venture be to themselves become an electricity utility?).

And now they've added oil shale to the list. What next? Hydro-electric dams and wind farms? Uranium mines and nuclear power stations? Setting up a solar panel factory?

I'd just like to see something up and running before they try and overtake the likes of Shell, Exxon or even your local distributor of bottled gas. Just get _something_ up and running...


----------



## dogeatdog

Smurf1976 said:


> The main problem I see with LNC is that they are becoming a "jack of all trades, master of none" by trying to do everything at once.
> 
> Imagine if Woolworths had built opened every supermarket, liquor store, service station, fashion and electronics retailer that they own all at once. No, what they actually did is start fairly small in one aspect of retail and then built themselves up from that base. Same with Coles.
> 
> Or what if Richard Branson (Virgin) had gone into the music, banking, airline, railway, mobile phone etc businesses by launching the whole lot all at once? The odds are very high that he'd have made a mess of the whole lot. Instead, he started with one then moved on to the next and so on. A quick Google search reveals an 18 year period between his first attempt at business (apparently unsuccessful) and then eventually launching an airline after having found success in the music business in the meantime. At no point did he try doing everything all at once.
> 
> Now consider Linc. Trying to find coal. Trying to find oil and gas. Trying to gassify coal underground. Now wanting to gassify oil shale in situ as well. Supposedly going to turn the gas into diesel. And wanting to build a few power stations as well.
> 
> I'd feel much happier if they just concentrated on getting something, _anything_, actually up and running before trying to become an energy conglomerate.
> 
> Are they in the business of exploring for coal, oil and gas then selling the discovery to someone else?
> 
> Are they in the upstream oil and gas business with the intention of producing oil and gas?
> 
> Are they in the business of gassifying coal and turning it into diesel?
> 
> Are they in the business of generating electricity for sale to utilities? (Or will their next venture be to themselves become an electricity utility?).
> 
> And now they've added oil shale to the list. What next? Hydro-electric dams and wind farms? Uranium mines and nuclear power stations? Setting up a solar panel factory?
> 
> I'd just like to see something up and running before they try and overtake the likes of Shell, Exxon or even your local distributor of bottled gas. Just get _something_ up and running...




I do agree Smurf, that Linc have moved away from their original game plan of specialising in producing liquid fuels from stranded coal. Mainly because of the lack of political approval, and perhaps the realisation of the capex involved. Hence the decision to design modular units going forward.

Having read extracts from the latest annual report, Linc say they have now re organised into three groups. 
It all sounds good on paper, and hopefully this new structure will help develop the business in the long run. 
With the announcement that the next coal sale may happen "hopefully" by the end of this year, what next to keep current investors, and new ones interested in the company?
The latest idea of somehow extracting the hydrocarbons from the newly discovered shale find, creates an image of desperation to please share holders.

Having said all this, it was a very short time ago, before the recent market turmoil that the +/-$3 a share, appeared fair, and many of us were bullish for a further rise, and the prospects the company.

Very frustrating times


----------



## basilio

*I think LNC is in the business of making money from energy development and sales* .. and is quite willing to look outside the square in the process.

Certainly Peter Bond started with the coal to diesel concept. I think the reality of how much  effort it would take to refine the UCG process and then build cost effective GTL plants has been a very sobering experience. The decision to develop and sell off unneeded coal mines to basically provide working capital was opportunistic but highly effective in protecting LNC's financial situation. Having a $300m bank account with possibly another $4-500m coming in a few months is an outstanding outcome. (and lets not forget the 20 year coal royalty stream worth .... well lots and lots...)

*The decision to buy into depleted oil wells and use CO2 injections to boost production is, IMO,  quite inspired.*  LNC has the UCG technology at its fingertips so what would cost other companies a bundle will effectively be done in house at inhouse costs. Given the lead times for GTL development the opportunity to obtain relatively quick returns from these oil fields seems an excellent idea. The fact that they obtained the fields at quite modest costs is just another feather in their cap.

*The fundamental game changer in my view is the investment in the AFC fuel cell technology and the Pyromex above ground gasification process which would then enable use of the AFC fuel cell.*  Being able to use coal either below ground or above ground to produce baseload electricity with no CO2 emissions and no high water use would be a stunning achievement.  

*If properly handled it could potentially replace every coal fired power station in the world and be one of the most far reaching ways of tackling greenhouse gas emissions at a cost effective price.* 

The new shale developments ?  I can see a long lead time and a lot of development costs in that project - but then there is the potential value of *8bboe*. And this is in a world that rapidly reaching peak oil. It is also worth appreciating that the UCG technology is probably a fair way down the track in terms of turning oil shale into  flowing oil. It might only take a few tweaks to get this operational.

I think the mechanism of  (metaphorically) splitting the company into three divisions makes good organisational sense. It then requires each division to have the talent and working capital to grow their babies.  But in the bigger picture they are part of a coherent plan.

The possible log jam could come at executive decision making levels. How many processes can Peter Bond be involved in at once ? Are there other effective decision makers in the company who can be the final go to man ?

Finally however the one thing we do want to see is positive cash flow ASAP from the American oil fields (or our own if we strike it lucky!!)


----------



## Smurf1976

The main reason I'm not overly excited about shale is simply that there's heaps of it around and nobody else really wants it.

Locally, there's a lot in Qld and also known deposits in NSW, SA, WA and Tas. That's to the point that it's a waste by-product of another mine in SA that is simply disposed of as waste. And in Tas there's so many known deposits that it's beyond a joke really - there's even a unique type with the official (internationally recognised) name of Tasmanite. Looking futher afield, there's massive amounts of the stuff in the USA and other countries have significant reserves also, including Russia. 

But with the sole exception of Estonia which relies heavily on oil shale burned directly to generate electricity (in the same manner as coal - used "as is" without extracting any actual oil), it's not a major energy source anywhere else.

A few of the major oil companies had a go at setting up production in the US but couldn't get it working in a profitable manner (after also making it safe and environmentally acceptable) so they abandoned it. Likewise there was an operating plant in Qld that in due course closed, largely due to persistent production problems and associated environmental issues.

Meanwhile it's still a waste product in SA and here in Tas the only interest has been from various government organisations who thought it worthwhile to document the resource for the sake of it. Nobody actually wants the stuff.

Now, maybe Linc are really onto something but if it was going to be easy then I have to ask myself why doesn't someone like BP or Shell (or BHP or Rio Tinto) want it? Surely they'd at least have bought rights to the reserves or something like that if they thought there was a viable way of using it? 

So in short, finding oil shale doesn't excite me in the slightest. If they could demonstrate a practical, safe and profitable way of using it then that would be another story. But simply finding shale is a bit like saying you just found a heap of sand - so what? Given that nobody else seems to want it, simply buying up existing known oil shale deposits ought to be fairly easy and cheap.

I still hold a small quantity of stock as a somewhat speculative investment, but I'm increasingly worried about what their actual business plan is over the long term.


----------



## luckypaul

Comment from my mate Greg regarding Linc's supposed plan to burn oil shale in situ:-



> Can't see how that would work as shale has less carbon than coal. Eg about 7pct max in shale. Energy input would be huge.




Hmmm! lets hope the newspaper got it wrong and it wasn't Mr Bond losing his touch on reality. 

Greg also joked Linc are drilling in the wrong place! They should have tried Blackpool, England http://www.worldoil.com/Largest_UK_shale_find_claimed.html. 

I too, echo Smurf in that they have diversified too much too soon. I am rather scared they did this because they cannot bring their wonderful Coal to Liquids to commercial scale?? 

Last we heard was that a team was scouring Asia to find a place to build the necessary CTL modules, saving money on the expensive costs of building bits in Australia. Perhaps if they had saved cash on adding bells and whistles to the coal sale and buying back shares http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-350.pdf, they would have had enough cash to build the bloody plant in Oz and be half way through the project by now. 

Very frustrating but even more so as I have also, on several occasions, sent Linc links to a UK company that already has a scalable gas to liquids processer they are rolling out at a commercial scale http://www.oxfordcatalysts.com/. Oxford Catalysts also have an existing catalysts business that could seriously add to Linc's commercial capabilities and further their claim to a new niche market!  Current Market Cap of OCG is just over GBP 54 million based on 60p per share (todays price).

Oh well, back to my shorting (not Linc, that would be sacrilege - just the world in general)! :horse:

p.s. Currently not a holder in LNC or OCG


----------



## mexican

Linc are either very clever having a buy back now knowing something is in the pipeline in the near future (Teresa) or they are very stupid and naive IMO!!!!


----------



## basilio

mexican said:


> Linc are either very clever having a buy back now knowing something is in the pipeline in the near future (Teresa) or they are very stupid and naive IMO!!!!




Teresa is no surprise package. It is not home yet and needs to be discounted until the money is in the bank but it seems fairly solid.

But that aside  LNCs cash assets and royalty  deals with Adani are probably worth the current SP. But in the current market situation we are close to panic selling where there will be* no* consideration of nominal values and very few buyers.

Trying to put a floor under LNC's SP makes sense in terms of supporting the thousands of shareholders who are still  leaving their money in the company. And again, on the current cash position and royalty assets it seems a good value purchase.


----------



## Mr Z

FWIW 27.5% of yesterdays turnover was short selling. They are leaning on lots of commodity stocks here. I'd have thought it is over done generally, covering could provide some motivated buying.

View attachment ShortSales 20110929.xls


----------



## basilio

Mr Z said:


> FWIW 27.5% of yesterdays turnover was short selling. They are leaning on lots of commodity stocks here. I'd have thought it is over done generally, covering could provide some motivated buying.
> 
> View attachment 44714




Thanks for that. Very illuminating.

I'm wondering  how the range and volume of short selling compares to more settled times? Certainly seems like  a factor in helping drive shares down even further. 

__________________________________________________________________

Re LNC share support/buyback program.  What Peter Bond would obviously like to see is a couple of institutions recognise  that LNC looks like a safe, excellent, long term buy and therefore decide to start buying into weakness at the current levels. (Which is what the company is effectively doing at the moment..)

Rather than putting orders in for 1m shares and force the price up they simply decide to accumulate stock as people lose their nerve.


----------



## Mr Z

Not that I chart it but my sense is that we are very much at the upper limits in terms of % turnover sold short.  I should start collecting and charting the data.


----------



## Mickel

Some members may be wondering how the highest price of share buybacks is calculated as per Rule 7.33 as quoted in the LNC daily announcements.

I've set up a new thread in "The beginners lounge" section of ASF that deals with Chapter 7 of the ASX Listing Rules.

For ease of reference, this is the link to Chapter 7-

http://www.asxgroup.com.au/media/PDFs/Chapter7.pdf

Rule 7.33 states-

"A company may only buy back shares under an on-market buy-back at a price which is not more than 5% above the average market price for securities in that class. The average is calculated over the last 5 days on which sales in the shares were recorded before the day on which the purchase under the buy-back was made."


----------



## Jonathan111

Teresa project (20% of our current LNC DCF valuation) development continues towards 8mt/a of Low Rank
PCI coal production by 2014 (Ref: LNC 8/8/’11). We expect announcements on infrastructure (Port, Rail) in the
next few months. This is likely to add value to project and flush out the buyer of the project in our view. We value
at Teresa at $0.80/share ($409m).
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/analysts_reports/LNC-Analysts-Report-21.pdf


Would that be Wiggins? Yancoal flushed out?  


BMA?


[video]http://wicet.com.au/[/video]


Blackwater System

The 2009 QR Coal Rail Infrastructure Plan states that when the currently endorsed projects for
the Blackwater system are completed the track will be fully duplicated between Rocklands and
Burngrove and the network capacity will be in the order of 85Mtpa with the use of 8,000tonne
capacity trains. (The throughput for the Blackwater system in 2009/10 was 58.3Mtpa.)

QR Network has commenced expansion of the Blackwater electrification system.

This work is planned to be completed in 2013, prior to the commissioning of stage 1 of the
Wiggins Island Coal Terminal.

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...xB8yHr&sig=AHIEtbSYPKvLT-gfVORxsaYQ9_PpwlV3QA


http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&s...2ZXnBw&usg=AFQjCNHu3Vm3ZR-tC76qD3VpO_bJ2Y5KGA


http://www.chdc.com.au/documents/Re...ration_Activity_Emerald_Regio  n_Mar_2010.pdf


Refering to the sale.. Did PB say 90 days in August 11? 

Was he refering to the FIRB process?

http://www.firb.gov.au/content/notices.asp
Formal notification of a proposal under section 25, 26 or 26A activates a time clock and, if the Treasurer does not take action within 30 days and notify the parties of this action within a further 10 days, the Treasurer loses the ability to either prohibit the proposal or to impose conditions. The normal 30 day examination period may be extended by up to a further 90 days by the issue of an interim order (sections 22 and 25(3)).


----------



## basilio

Nice research Jonathan.  Hope you are reading the right chicken entrails.

It's interesting that the "value" for Teresa has been bandied around from $500m to $$600m and now down to $400 m over the last couple of years.  Perhaps with the dropping of the Australian dollar in the last month there could be an edging up in price ?

(Lets just get a sale  finalised before the merde hits the fan !!)


----------



## Mickel

Yes, very informative research, Jonathon.

I have a suspicion that the top bid is from a Chinese group and is awaiting FIRB approval. While the Feds approved the Adani deal without delay, it appears the Chinese situation is different,a la Rio.

The latest LNC ASX announcement on Teresa was made on 8/8/11, a very auspicious date for the Chinese- they opened their Olympics on this date in 2008. In the statement LNC said they had narrowed down the bidders to 4. I seem to recall that it was mentioned they were overseas bidders but I can't find a reference.

Regarding sale price of Teresa, Bas, most references are of $500M gross, but some mention a net amount (after tax) of $400+M. PB once said recently that they had an offer of $500M from a Hong Kong entity suggesting that he was looking for more.

So, my reading of the chicken entrails is that we will have a sale to a Chinese entity for around $600M by 8th November 11, in time for PB to receive many "pats on the back" at the AGM. LOL !!!!


----------



## Mickel

Another good day for LNC- S/P up 11c to $2.15. Over the last 3 trading days the S/P is up 32c (16%).
There seems a reluctance by sellers to sell below their preferred price. No doubt the share buyback has had some influence on this. Also more sellers may be confident that the Teresa sale is imminent and therefore are reluctant to sell before it is announced.

These factors appear to have stopped the shortsellers for the moment.
Here are the short sales from 28/9-

28/9         578,012            27.48%
29/9         376012             25.78 %
3/10         459440             29.63%
4/10         300200             22.84 %
5/10         287091             27.73%
6/10         202346             17.34%
7/10         nil


----------



## Mickel

I attended the Linc 50 years UCG celebration in Brisbane last night. PB mentioned that they were down to 2 bidders for Teresa. He stated he had to be very careful in what he said and could tell us everything as long as he could keep us in the room until the announcements were made (presumably without mobile phones, i pads, or lap tops) some time in the future.

He did mention that the carbon tax, minerals tax and the Greek debt dramas were the cause of the bidders reassessing their positions on at least 2 separate occasions in recent times.

PB also said they were close to finalising the ERG deal and they could extract approx 6,000 bpd from the ERG fields for several (7 ?)years before using CO2 injection to obtain a similar amount of oil. I think 20M boo was mentioned for each.

The latest AFC model was currently being tested in Germany and the trial will be completed in 90 days. There will be one in Chinchilla early next year. They may use it to supply power to the LNC site. They have no plans to enter the power market in Qld because the cost of power is estimated to be comparably cheap for several years (in part because of CSG which won't be 100% exported).

In response to a question, PB stated "Wait till we have the announcement of the Teresa coal sale before talking about another special dividend. It will be a board decision. Personally I am in favour of it."

Sounds good to me.

All in all it was a great night. Great venue overlooking the river with spectacular views of the Story Bridge, good beers wine and champagne and yummy food.


----------



## basilio

Nice  one Mickel.  Sounds like a great evening.

Noticed the reference to Greek debt dramas (and obviously the bigger Euro debt picture as well) as a reason for the delay in the Teresa coal sale.  Getting a signature and the money on this deal  could be touch and go in the present climate.


----------



## jeremyl

Mickel Thanks for the update. I'm a UK investor and have a significant investment in AFC Energy. I'm actually going to the investors day at AFCs HQ tomorrow. I was just wondering was there anything else said or discussed regarding Lincs future plans with AFC yesterday or any other comments or discussions on AFC? Thanks. Best wishes Jeremy


----------



## Mickel

jeremyl said:


> Mickel Thanks for the update. I'm a UK investor and have a significant investment in AFC Energy. I'm actually going to the investors day at AFCs HQ tomorrow. I was just wondering was there anything else said or discussed regarding Lincs future plans with AFC yesterday or any other comments or discussions on AFC? Thanks. Best wishes Jeremy




Hi Jeremy. Welcome to ASF.

Nothing else regarding AFC was said during the address by PB. The gathering was welcomed by the LNC COO David Smith. He is a director of Yerostigaz and also a director of AFC Energy. Unfortunately I had to leave immediately after the formal part and wasn't able to talk to David Smith regarding AFC.

My view is that if LNC can establish a suitable site in Sth Aust for UCG, The AFC modules would be a great fit to supply power to the Sth Aust grid, especially now that BHP Billiton appear to be going ahead with a $30B expansion of Olympic Dam in nothern Sth Aust and would require massive amounts of additional power.

Would appreciate your comments on both AFC and LNC after your visit to AFC HQ.


----------



## Mickel

Looking at AFC Energy's last independent review in Nov 2010-

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/CPI_03-11-10.pdf

part of the conclusion of the report stated-

"The next phase of the development plan is a critical one for the company. It has to
demonstrate the robustness of its β-system outside the laboratory environment and it has to ensure that it produces a lot of basic system data on both performance and durability. The positive changes it has introduced into the technology over the course of the last twelve months have been significant and surprising given the relatively short time period involved.
The last six months have been a period of consolidation where the company has successfully established its new technical concepts and designs and built a robust delivery team. The next period of development needs to firmly establish the commercial nature of the technology and to demonstrate exactly what it can do. The author, having observed the performance of the company over the last 24 months, has no doubt that the company will deliver its objectives. It has maintained its absolute focus on cost, performance and manufacturability and the author sees no technical reason why the system should not be delivered in accordance with the company’s technical development plan. "

It appears that this is the basis of the current trial in Germany. Let's hope that the trial is very successful and it becomes a game changer in the energy generation industry.


----------



## basilio

For those who are interested the Interactive Investor website has an excellent thread on AFC and the progress of their fuel cell. AFC just had an seminar inviting investors to look at the operating Beta cell and ask questions. There are some excellent reviews of that meeting.

The fuel cell looks very promising indeed and hopefully LNC will exploit it's potential as it becomes commercialised.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:AFC.L


----------



## basilio

Interesting interview with Peter Bond and CEO of Powerhouse technologies. Looks at the  direction that LNC wants to take with coal gasification.

http://lse.indigopapa.com/growing-company-interview-with-powerhouse-energy/


----------



## Mickel

More good news from LNC-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-368.pdf

LINC ENERGY STARTS UP ITS FIFTH (5TH) UCG GASIFIER AND THE WORLD’S FIRST MULTI-PANEL UCG OPERATION

● The Fifth (5th) Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) operation commences at Linc Energy’s world class R&D facility in Chinchilla, Queensland, Australia.

● Gasifier 5 is the most technologically advanced UCG gasifier in operation in the world and marks the final phase in Linc Energy’s UCG technology trials prior to commercial implementation in the near future.

● Gasifier 5 is the Fifth Generation of Technology developed by Linc Energy which is specifically designed to support the commercial roll out of Linc Energy’s Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), Gas to Liquids (GTL) and Clean Gas energy applications.

● Gasifier 5 represents the first multi panel UCG gasifier operation in the western world with Gasifier 5 operating in tandem with Linc Energy’s Gasifier 4 UCG panel.

● Gasifier 5 was producing gas within 60 minutes of ignition, the fastest commissioning of any UCG operation in the world.

It appears that it will be "all systems go" in Wyoming 1st qtr next year.


----------



## basilio

Looks good doesn't it ? What struck me in reading the  release was that Gasifier 5 would produce the energy equivalent of 89,000 barrels of oil over its 2-3 year span. So I suppose the questions would be how quickly can each gasifier be built and how many would be needed to provide the raw material for a 5000 barrel a day GTL plant ?

On another note. How many gasifers would be required to be effective in the EOR program ?


----------



## blue2

basilio said:


> Looks good doesn't it ? What struck me in reading the  release was that Gasifier 5 would produce the energy equivalent of 89,000 barrels of oil over its 2-3 year span. So I suppose the questions would be how quickly can each gasifier be built and how many would be needed to provide the raw material for a 5000 barrel a day GTL plant ?
> 
> On another note. How many gasifers would be required to be effective in the EOR program ?




Don't confuse would with could. This gasifier may ne capable of much higher generation rates but possibly is not being run at maximum. If it was producing 10 times as much gas what would LNC do with the gas. Their GTL plant is only a small pilot plant and flaring heaps of gas is not environmentally accepted these days.


----------



## luckypaul

Article on Internaxx regarding UCG and expected 5 fold growth. Mentions Linc Energy.

*Underground Coal Gasification Poised to Grow Fivefold*, Zeus Report
Finds
HOUSTON, TX -- (MARKETWIRE) -- 10/18/11 --

The potential energy supply from underground coal gasification (UCG) is so vast that the technology could rival the sale gas revolution, a Zeus Development Corp. study finds. Because UCG developers can target coals that are deep, of low grade and in seams too thin for economical mining, the technology could increase recoverable reserves threefold, a Lawrence Livermore National Lab report found in 2008.

"Underground coal gasification could solve a lot of the developing world's energy supply challenges, provided developers can manage environmental risks," Zeus Analyst Chris Cothran, a coauthor of the study, said. "We believe it will be applied most extensively in countries such as India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, where governments have unmineable reserves and are keen to improve standards of living without having to compete for high-priced oil."

UCG involves pumping air or oxygen underground to gasify coal in situ into synthesis gas, which is then pumped to the surface. This avoids costly infrastructure, energy and labor required to mine and transport raw coal, gasify it, and then dispose of mountains of ash. With UCG, the ash remains underground. Greenhouse gases can be captured and pumped underground or sold for enhanced oil recovery. The synthesis is used to make electricity, diesel, gasoline, lubricants, or other high-value products.

The concept has been considered for decades, but only recently have technological advancements in seismology, drilling and electronics converged to make it economical. Recent cost estimates for UCG projects come in at levels less than half conventional coal-gasification methods and well below sale gas production.

Several independent energy companies, such as Australian-based Linc Energy Ltd. (ASX: LNC), Wildhorse Energy Limited (ASX: WHE), and Cougar Energy (ASX: CXY) are using technological advancements to push their UCG capabilities forward. Currently, eight projects in Australia, China, Poland, Canada and Uzbekistan are underway. Their owners are surveying sites to build another 43 around the globe. All intend to target deep reserves and tightly manage environmental risks, capturing and sequestering greenhouse gases.

To review the potential for this technology, Zeus has prepared a 108-page report and online database with profiles of all 51 projects worldwide. Information can be obtained at www.zeusintel.com/UCGReport.


----------



## luckypaul

*Power House Energy *shares (PHE) jump 67% in the UK to 12.8p on a tip from Red Hot Penny Shares magazine for November (released after market close last Friday). 

The tip sheet mentions Linc's 9.99% interest in Powerhouse energy but the article is focused on the companies technology to generate power from waste, including from used tyres. It states that if ongoing trials in Munich are successful the company has named 13 customers or 'immediate prospects' with projects valued at $130.5m and has another 120 prospects accounting for a total sales pipeline worth over $1 billion. 

The target price stated by RHPS is 25p in 12 months, of course, dependant on the worlds economy.

Why, may I ask (again),  is Linc doing a share buy back when it could be using the cash it has (and the cash rolling in soon - ha, ha  coming from the coal sale - ha, ha ) on buying companies like PHE and AFC and really cornering this new and exciting market *WHICH HAS POTENTIAL * rather than getting into oil dregs and EOR which is relatively boring and of comparatively limited upside potential???

:horse:

Note:- I am Currently not a Linc holder as they have diversified out of my scope of interest and are becoming a small oily slick of their former drive and potential.

Regretfully not a PHE or AFC holder either but they are now both on my buy list if the world ever returns to normal. :fan


----------



## basilio

Well Lucky Paul LNC bought into PHE to gain access to the above ground coal gasification technology. If in fact the technology is successful and cost effective it could turn around and make a case for applying it to the billions of tons of mined coal  that could be gasified and put through the AFC fuel cell.

*That* would be a world beater!!


----------



## basilio

I am keenly  following the progress on AFC fuel cells. LNC has  12% interest in the company and the rights to use the fuel cell on their UCG technology and with the above ground coal gasification license. 

I came across a submission to the House of Commons which outlined a strategy to give energy security to England and tackle climate change issues. Interestingly enough the AFC fuel cell is an important part of the equation. Good read.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/1065/1065vw25.htm


----------



## basilio

LNC release today highlighting their progress in using CO2 to improve oil flows in the newly acquired  North  American oil leases.  Market wasn't impressed and LNC falls another 10.5c to $1.62.5.  Disappointing !!

Personally  I found it hard to get my head around the release. A fair bit of technical information, some history of the oil fields and references to the previous use of EOR in similar fields. In my view I would like to see

1) The current oil production from these fields
2) Some timeline indication of when EOR and other oil field production enhancements would be happening
3) Anticipated yields from these actions. (accepting of course that these are always open to the physical reality of the situations)

*And of course  when will the coal sale come through ??*

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf


----------



## Toolong

Couldn't agree more Basilio, it's like LNC had to 'toss something up' to try and avert the downward spiral.  Can't help but wonder how things will be when the buy back reaches the allowable number.  Starting to wish I had bailed with lucky paul.


----------



## basilio

Interesting to see that there has not been announcements of share buybacks yesterday or today.  It looks as if LNC is not buying back shares and, at the moment, letting the market settle it's SP.

Currently another steep fall. On my figures it is under net asset values in terms of cash and royalties from last years coal sale. Which values the rest of LNCs holdings at zilch. 

The lack of news on the Teresa coal sale in conjunction with the darkening economic clouds isn't a good look. If LNC couldn't close a sale a few months ago I wonder how eager buyers will be at the moment ? Perhaps if there is a sale the upfront cash will be  relatively small. It should be at least enough to keep LNC going before the full oil and EOR enhanced  production comes on line next year. 

In fact as a shareholder I would like to see an analysis that shows LNC cash flow positive  *(without the Teresa coal sale )* before it runs out of  its current cash assets. Would certainly improve my confidence in the company.

Any thoughts ?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

The LNC AGM is on tonight. Is anyone on the Forum attending ? If you are Brisbane based  it would be great to get a first hand summary of the feelings of the Board and  shareholders .


----------



## basilio

A final observation.

I think the Teresa coal sale is currently off the table because of the economic conditions. As a result LNC is having to recast it's budget to ensure it doesn't run out of cash before oil sales kick in (and also realising that if there is a serious recession oil prices will almost certainly fall as well) . Hence no more share buybacks for the immediate future. All in IMHO.


----------



## skc

basilio said:


> Currently another steep fall. On my figures it is under net asset values in terms of cash and royalties from last years coal sale. Which values the rest of LNCs holdings at zilch.




Last quarterly shows cash ~$205m (40.8cps) and the royalties from memory was $2.5B notional value spread over a good number of years into the future. I wonder what is the discount if they choose to monetise that royalty stream now.

On ~$800m market cap today, the share price is saying the royalty stream is worth 25% of the notional value in today's dollar...

Then everything else comes free...


----------



## namrog

Technically, looking very ordinary now, since it closed under main support at 1-75, then there was a good chance that it wouldn't pull up until it hit  1 -25, "the range" that's just my oppinion though...

Linc has always been a very leaky opperation, so you wonder what's going on behind the scenes, also it has a history of volatility so when there are general market jitters it's one of those that gets sold off hard, and when the market settles gets bought up hard...

Sold out of Linc earlier in the year and looking to get back in again, may dip a toe around 1-30 ish if it gets there, either ways the chart usually gives fair indication of whats in store, and that usually comes from insiders..!!!


----------



## mexican

Looks like the gap will be filled 27/8/10-30/08/10.
Be watching closely for a reversal set up.


----------



## basilio

Another day.. another dollar ?  At the moment there is at least one keen bottom feeder looking for a bite.

It will be interesting to see how LNC  goes after the AGM. Does anyone have any first hand observations  of the meeting ?  One thing I noticed in reading the reports was the  details on the fuel cell technology.  Up until now I  have felt it wasn't really given much air time. I think that has changed.

____________________________________________________________________

Also came across an analysis of LNC done through a small boutique investment group. Quite thorough. I also thought the way the investment group worked was worth a look. It uses what it calls "collective wisdom" where it encourages members to contribute their own ideas and research into the pool for consideration.  Looked good.

(Unfortunately they have just decided to wind up the group. Shame)

https://nakedfunds.com.au/ArticleTemplate1.aspx?ArticleID=324e3363-04ab-4c1d-bead-dd81d19ce4a7


----------



## Jonathan111

Mickel, Mr Z,

Are either of you keeping a daily list of short selling?

If so could you share? 

I have been topping up.

After a quick look at the market depth a couple of days ago, it appeared as if very many small trades piled up very fast (matter of seconds) on the sell side every time the share price moved down a cent. This may be computer generated trading software.

Good to hear we are cashflow positive. 

But still a lot of small commitments on the back burner i believe, like cooper basin drilling.

Exxaro are huge in Africa, hopefully the MOU is mutually effective.

Did anyone attend the Annual meeting? 

Hungry for UCG


Cheers,
Jonathan


----------



## basilio

> Good to hear we are cashflow positive.




Where did you see/hear this Jonathan ?  I thought LINC was still  burning more than it was making at this stage.


----------



## Mr Z

Jonathan111 said:


> Mickel, Mr Z,
> 
> Are either of you keeping a daily list of short selling?




You can keep tabs on it here...

http://www.asx.net.au/data/shortsell.txt


----------



## Jonathan111

basilio said:


> Where did you see/hear this Jonathan ?  I thought LINC was still  burning more than it was making at this stage.




Another poster wrote that PB mentioned this at the AGM; also there was supposed to be a meeting last week and one today involving negotiations for teresa; also some results from huff and puff eor should be available in 4 weeks


----------



## basilio

Jonathan111 said:


> Another poster wrote that PB mentioned this at the AGM; also there was supposed to be a meeting last week and one today involving negotiations for teresa; also some results from huff and puff eor should be available in 4 weeks




That all sounds promising.  With the current financial instability I have been fearing that the Teresa sale is off the table. If/when it does come off LNC will be an absolute steal. But we can remember how long it took to go from the initial announcement of the first coal sale (Sept 2008) to final consummation (July 2010)

I'm still surprised at the suggested positive cash flow situation. Frankly if that was the case I would have though we would be hearing much more about it. And if LNC is cash flow positive at this early stage in the development of it's American oil fields how much upside is there ?


----------



## Jonathan111

*Reported Gross Short Sales...........*Date*
217,631..........................................*17-Nov
197,867..........................................*18-Nov
206,131..........................................*21-Nov
151,824..........................................*23-Nov
162,098..........................................*24-Nov
282,466..........................................*25-Nov


http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Daily/2011-11-28/ZXssda111128.xls


----------



## Jonathan111

1,027,878.............................28-Nov


More sub-bituminous coal in Poland


"the energy policy pursued by the Polish government is centred on security of energy supply, with competitive cost structures, minimum environmental impacts and increased energy efficiency."
http://www.euracoal.org/pages/layout1sp.php?idpage=76


----------



## Jonathan111

The information below may also help identify shorting.


_This report presents the outstanding gross and net loaned position in each ASX-listed security, summed across all reporting participants as at the reporting date_
http://www.asx.com.au/data/securities_lending_outstanding_loaned.xls



Found this pic on another website.










http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/about.htm


http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/securities-lending-disclosure.htm


----------



## basilio

Couple more updates on LNC and associated interets

The AGM presentation is now on Boardroom radio. Full story and slide show. Excellent stuff. 

Towards the end at 1.12 they discuss the  AFC fuel cell technology and its capacity to delver cheap, clean CO2 free energy from UCG. On the same note AFC has just been given a grant to commercialize the high volume production of its fuel cells.

The presentation is well worth seeing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/frame/89774
http://www.afcenergy.com/RNS/Award of Grant FINAL 011211.pdf


----------



## basilio

Peter Bond has just bought himself Dunk Island. Perhaps it will be holday place for the LNC millionaires.

Apparently it will need total refurbishment becasue it was trashed by Cyclone Yasi last year. I reckon Peter could get creative and use some of LNC clean energy technology as a showpiece on the place.

_PS Wonder if this suggests the Teresa deal is signed and sealed ??_

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...t-for-10-million/story-e6freoof-1226211544830


----------



## basilio

LNC still diving.. They have  (obviously) stopped buying their shares I assume to preserve cash. 

Teresa doesn't look like been sold  in the near future. One could certainly understand the reluctance of buyers given the fragile state of the  EU.

I suppose what concerns me is the seeming failure of institutional support for the company. Or am I just looking too closely at LNC and not appreciating that many other excellent prospects  are severely marked down ?


----------



## awg

Regretably as a long-term holder I decided to ditch LNC recently at 1.75

I did this because, in my mind:

*they have persistently failed to meet timeline expectations
*they have not made enough progress on core UCG/GTL.

I was reluctant because at least they are not heavily indebted and without income, but nevertheless, I decided  LNC did not make the cut based on the above, and present conditions mean many stocks will continue to be marked down unless they tick all the boxes imo


----------



## namrog

awg said:


> Regretably as a long-term holder I decided to ditch LNC recently at 1.75
> 
> I did this because, in my mind:
> 
> *they have persistently failed to meet timeline expectations
> *they have not made enough progress on core UCG/GTL.
> 
> I was reluctant because at least they are not heavily indebted and without income, but nevertheless, I decided  LNC did not make the cut based on the above, and present conditions mean many stocks will continue to be marked down unless they tick all the boxes imo




That's a very understandable position to take awg,  you sold at $ 1-75,  so you're in front, in a sort of way taking today's close into consideration....

I originally bought into Linc because of the ucg / ctl possibilities also, but like yourself have become a bit disillusioned with the move into other what I consider none core operations, and have bailed out also, however there is a price where I will re- enter, because of perceived value, and technical support, so keeping a close eye on it as I believe we are not too far away from a possible bottom, and entry...!!!

That's only my opinion though ...!!!


----------



## basilio

LNC seems to be in free fall. Now down to $1.25 

If the Louisiana oilfields are going to plan LNC should be reaping some worthwhile cash flow. (_The original press release talked of 3300 BOED as the initial yield_)  Probably not enough to become cash flow positive overall but a decent contribution.

There should still be $180m in the bank to cover cash flow for the medium term future. The EOR program is supposed to show fruit within a few months. At that stage one would think LNC became cash flow positive...

Any thoughts on the relentless selling and seemingly little support ? Any ideas on what could turn sentiment around ?


----------



## Calliope

basilio said:


> Any thoughts on the relentless selling and seemingly little support ? Any ideas on what could turn sentiment around ?




You are still whistling in the dark, but I'm afraid that the market has woken up to the fact that Peter Bond is full of bullsh*t.


----------



## awg

basilio said:


> LNC seems to be in free fall. Now down to $1.25
> 
> Any thoughts on the relentless selling and seemingly little support ? Any ideas on what could turn sentiment around ?




Yes...finalise the coal asset sale, (might help)

stop making anns that are hyped-up 

explain why they seem to have virtually abandoned GTL ( although I strongly suspect that the answer is bad news)


----------



## Toolong

I must say at a time when LNC really needs to be focussed on achieving some goals to keep the investor interest, Mr Bond is off buying wrecked islands and a cricket team.  It will require a fair amount of time and effort to turn Dunk Island around.  Is he looking to move onto something else?  Maybe he will team up with Eddy to bring the Brisbane Bullets back??

Still holding LNC - Definately testing the nerve though.


----------



## Atomic

Toolong said:


> I must say at a time when LNC really needs to be focussed on achieving some goals to keep the investor interest, Mr Bond is off buying wrecked islands and a cricket team.  It will require a fair amount of time and effort to turn Dunk Island around.  Is he looking to move onto something else?  Maybe he will team up with Eddy to bring the Brisbane Bullets back??
> 
> Still holding LNC - Definately testing the nerve though.




yep very exciting also Toolong !! , want to buy up , but when to pull the trigger is killin me


----------



## Toolong

Atomic said:


> yep very exciting also Toolong !! , want to buy up , but when to pull the trigger is killin me




Hard to know when that will be Atomic.  I'm reading different things on the cash situation.  Looks like people's fears over the past months about LNC spreading themselves too widely and spending too much cash might be ringing true.  Maybe they banked on the sale coming off... The slide continues anyway and the only anns are buy backs which are doing little to stem the exits.


----------



## basilio

Something to think about re LNC.

Last year the coal sale netted $500m cash plus a royalty deal worth around 2.5B.  Adanai the  Indian company that bought the coal has been going full steam ahead with infrastructure development to get the show on the road so that royalty stream is looking better and better.

It also has at least 2 other valuable coal deposits that can be sold.. 

LNC has a swathe of oil producing resources in the US that are coming on line and being expanded. On top of that there are large longer term oil projects (Alaska) the UCG technology which is apparently now well sorted out and many, many  coal leases that can be exploited via the UCG process.

LNC has interests in at least 2 complementary technologies -  The alkaline fuel Cell and the above ground coal gasification -  that can  drive commercialization of their UCG technology.

There is around $180m in the bank to cover costs for the forseeable future.

And at close of business today all this was valued at $530m !!.


----------



## Smurf1976

basilio said:


> And at close of business today all this was valued at $530m !!.



It's the lack of certainty I think.

Is this a UCG GTL company that's going to be selling diesel? Or is it an electricity utility that generates power? Is it a conventional oil company that buys old wells and works them over? Is it a coal company?

What, exactly, is the main activity and source of revenue for this company going forward? That's what has me, and no doubt many others, worried. With most companies it's not difficult for the average person to understand what business they are primarily involved in and assess their abilities to operate in that industry - not so with LNC. 

Peter Bond buying a smashed up tourist resort hasn't helped either in my opinion. There just seems to be too much happening all at once for him, or LNC as a whole, to really focus on. "Jack of all trades, master of none" is a saying that comes to mind.

I bought into LNC specificallty for the UCG GTL process and that's all. Conventional oil production I can live with, it's selling into the same end market, but I'd just like to see a firm plan for exactly what they're going to do goind forward. The way it is now, it's like a retailer planning to open 100 stores but not being able to tell anyone what they are planning to sell - are we talking about convenience stores? Supermarkets? Department stores? Is it a take away chain? Maybe it's a new car dealership? That's pretty much comparable to LNC I think - just sort out what the actual plan is.


----------



## Calliope

Smurf1976 said:


> I bought into LNC specificallty for the UCG GTL process and that's all.




So did I.  Many years ago. I bought 50,000 shares at 17c a share. I was very impressed with the idea.  I made a lot of money out of LNC, when Peter Bond so successfully convinced the market that UGL had a great future, and the shares hovered around $5. Obviously he doesn't see that any more and has turned into a snake oil merchant. Perhaps he always was.

Chinchilla might have been goer if the environmentalists hadn't scared him off, and sent him running to SA.

However, I can't complain, He made me a lot of money.


----------



## Dougs Antiques

I cant believe that LNC is so cheap.
What is going on here ? Is there something that we dont know?
Looking at the chart it seems like it has a low of about $1 about every 12 to 18 months and then has a nice rebound.
This stock hasnt really  been under $0.95 since april 2008 (0.95 in april 2010).
IMO this a great buy at around $1
It seems that LNC has a massive upside at this price and with valuations of $5+.
I bit the bullet today and bought a generous parcel, just see what happens but I cant see it sliding much further IMHO


----------



## Jonathan111

Is it possible that a prospective buyer may encourage or be involved in the short selling and/or computer generated trading, in order to push Linc's hand to sell? i hope not.

IMO shorters have been able to thrive due to the high supply of the stock vs low demand. There has also been a draw back and hold back of cash by investors, due to the situation in Euroupe and the US.  Why do they do it? Because they can, and  they profit from it to others detriment.

Labours Carbon Tax and MRRT has slowed the coal sale down along with the situation in Euroupe.

Linc is not yet earning a sustainable yearly profit. In times like these prospective investors are not willing to take on the risks of investing in a company that has not had proven positive cashflows. 

But now Linc is $1.04. Very low and may attract short termers looking for a pop.

Linc has a bright future, the question is WHEN. 

Oil production [cashflow] will increase progressively over the next few years. 

The number and scale of oil, gas and coal leases held now compared to the last time Linc was around $1 is very different. 

A US UCG 90 day trail is coming at the end of next year, CO2 is coming, EOR and Huff and Puff. I wonder if they can used to CO2 from this trail in their EOR work.

As time passes the Adani royalty is increasing in value. 

Will they be able to find something new Umiat or just prove up the oil. Hopefully there is more there than known. Prudho bay is close, check out how big it is if you dont know. Even by proving this resource up, it will bring the road and pipeline closer to fruition and big long term cash flow closer too.

Also check out the PRB. Not sure if there is sale value there. But this report suggests it.
"Linc Energy acquired 180,000 acres of coal leases for $25m for a UCG trial operation in Wyoming’s coal prolific Powder River Basin ... The area is hotly contested with Peabody, Arch and ex-Rio Tinto Cloud Peak Energy. All would be eager to add to additional commercial coal to inventory and production, which LNC could monetize. We value the conventional coal mine ..."

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...BsMx5J&sig=AHIEtbQE7TNNhqbVC_vK3G5k-kVuTYKLig

Check out the seams at Arch's Black Thunder Coal mine in the PRB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LQwxTm94Ps


Basilio i think there will be about $30-40m by Jan 12.

Minus $130m for ERG assets deposits bought in Oct.
 - Drilling, Huff and Puff, Wages, items for the UCG plants and GTL, Cricket and advertising, buy back, presentations, oil field improvements, afc fuel cell, powerhouse units? all cost money..

Are they able to sustain ops without a coal sale?? I think the prospective buyers are licking their lips as Linc's cash reserves have lowered. Can Linc increase its cash flow, it depends if they can continue to increase production with their current drilling program. The first well has them on target, but its only the first. Huff and Puff results should be coming out soon and then the completion of the second well in the ERG fields. Maybe the Rancher field production will get a kick in the right direction from this huff and puff exercise.

Below is a quick guestimate..
3300bpd x $85 x 365days = approx $120m - $60 (cash burn?/500 employees wages etc?) - $60m (loan repayments over 3-4 years, tax/royalty) = $0 ?
+ $0.5m Uzbekistan?

I read posts that the execs are over in China.


----------



## calais

The share price has fallen because they have been slow with the commercializaton of
UCG/GTL, and thus shareholders have turned bearish on this stock.
Also their cash balance looks shaky, here are some rough numbers.

Balance to previous quarter:   205,000.000
Purchase of ERG oil fiels:      -120,000.000  ( total cost 250 mln, 130 mln credit facility )
Estimated cash outflows:     -50,000.000
Revenue:                             25,000.000

Balance sheet end of quarter   60,000.000 est.

So the balance sheet overall will be negative 70 mln due to the credit facility with BNP Paribas.

Anyone care to guess how much the 5000bpd Modular GTL Plant is going to cost?

My guess would be between 150mln to 180mln.


----------



## gohawks

Massive boost today. Any ideas why? Heard no news but obviously something is in the pipeline and someone knows about it.


----------



## deceit

gohawks said:


> Massive boost today. Any ideas why? Heard no news but obviously something is in the pipeline and someone knows about it.




Amazing gain today, I cant find any news. Glad I bought a parcel last week


----------



## mexican

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...es-bhp-national-australia-qbe-rio-santos.html


----------



## Starcraftmazter

This too caught my eye today, but I didn't buy in. Speculation and rumours about finding a buyer for their coal project.

Was up over 20% today I think at one stage, then got sold off after 3pm. Solid effort, could see a reversal to the upside here perhaps 

Next week of trading should be interesting.


----------



## Jonathan111

PB was in China speaking to the AFR for a story.

The deal in China if it goes through will be bigger than any other UCG Linc deal.

The deal would see Linc commercialise its underground coal gassification technology in the country.

cornerstone investor...


----------



## Dougs Antiques

DJ MARKET TALK: Linc Energy Choppy After Revealing Investor Talks



2357 GMT [Dow Jones] Linc Energy (LNC.AU) shares remain choppy after the company's revelation this morning that it's in talks with a potential cornerstone investor. It seems traders have taken some profits, as Linc shares initially fell to A$1.285, although they are now outperforming the broader market. Linc said that while its pursuing a number of divestment opportunities, it has not yet entered into any binding arrangements. While a cornerstone investor potentially would potentially strengthen the company, shareholders face the possibility of their stake being diluted. Nevertheless, with Linc shares near 18 month lows, valuation support should continue to limit downside potential. Linc shares closed up 18% at A$1.33 on Friday after surging to a 4-week high of A$1.43.


----------



## Jonathan111

The Queensland government has set up an independent scientific panel to report on the future of the industry in
May this year.

While the potential suitor in China remains unknown, Austock analyst Paul Jensz said it would most likely be
one of the big state-owned enterprises.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/general_news/LNC-general-news-18.pdf

Linc have to report their texas production numbers to the texas railroad commission

Go to Data - Online Research - Production Data Query System (PDQ) 
- Linc Gulf Coast - District 2 and 3

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/index.php


----------



## mr. jeff

Appears to have reversed and now looking at first target of 1.80 barring any serious problems from projects or globally. Strong return of volume. There was a frenzy leading up to the last tenement sale (although took a long time to happen as this seems to as well) but apart from waiting for that, at least we know that PB has a lot of skin in the game. 

 I don't know much about LNC at the moment but they spent 106M in the last quarter and have about 200m left in the bank as of September. Their burn is fast (16m in admin for instance) but things are moving rapidly or at least they are doing a lot.

Not sure what else to add at this stage but interested in opinions on upcoming developments from anyone that knows a bit more.   ?


----------



## calais

Well the quarterly report has been out for a week now, what do you think?
In reference to my assumptions I made (refer thread #2101 ) to end of Qtr balance sheet I wasn't too far off. Overstated revenues by 13 mln and loan facility of 10 mln.

Anyhow 32 mln for this company is not much, looking to sell assets ( teresa ) for cash injection. Cannot rely on revenues alone for expenditure. Currently in the red by 100 mln.

There is no mention of the 5000 bpd modular in their report at all, which I think is one of the most important issues they have. Unfortunately the company  appears to have some problems in China with manufacturers or contractors.

Today there were two large sellers at the end. One was selling 320000 shares at 1.405 and another 470000 at 1.35.


----------



## James W

Hmmm i would not worry about large sellers at the end of a break out day, as this stock only requires 10% margin to trade with most CFD brokers. So $450K of nominal value shares only costs 45K margin ...not a lot in the scheme of things considering its valued a 700mil company. it was probs just a day trader getting out at the end after a strong up day.


----------



## luckypaul

Relevant news from UK regarding Oxford Catalysts (OCG)



> 14th Feb 2011
> 
> *OXFORD CATALYSTS GROUP PLC
> ("Oxford Catalysts" or "the Group")
> *
> 
> *GTL Engineering Study Update*





> Oxford Catalysts Group PLC, the leading technology innovator for synthetic fuels production, is pleased to announce that it has successfully progressed to the next phase (known as FEL2) of an engineering study for a 15,000 bpd Gas-to-Liquids ("GTL") plant.
> 
> The study, conducted on behalf of a $multi-billion Exploration & Production company by a major engineering firm, is evaluating a facility in North America for converting shale gas into finished synthetic fuels. This next phase of the evaluation is due to begin shortly with a budget of several $million.
> 
> The Group announced its successful selection for the first phase of the engineering study (FEL1) in June 2011.
> 
> Roy Lipski, CEO of Oxford Catalysts Group said:
> 
> "We're pleased to be one of only a very small number of providers to have been chosen to progress to the next stage of this engineering study. The first stage of the study confirmed the economic advantage of our technology, due to its higher performance and modular nature.
> 
> "This is an exciting opportunity for the Group to participate in what could be one of the first major GTL plants to be built in North America. Market conditions for our products are better than ever and we're enjoying record levels of interest in our technology.
> 
> "Our successful selection for this next phase of the study provides further validation of the commercial attractiveness and relevance of our offerings, particularly for distributed scale opportunities."




*COME ON LINC!​*From leader to laggard in the CTL/GTL business is so very,very sad. Why are you dicking around with coal, share buy backs and left over oil when you should be leading this new technology and rocking the world?!!! Have you been paid off by the oil companies, maybe???

By now you should own OCG, PHE, AFC and other niche companies be world leader in the field, your field. Diversification, at your stage, is weakness. FOCUS now or lose it, like you have lost me as a shareholder!


----------



## Jonathan111

It looks like the shorters have come to the surface with this announcement by MBL and their share borrowings from top holders


----------



## basilio

Jonathan111 said:


> It looks like the shorters have come to the surface with this announcement by MBL and their share borrowings from top holders




Sorry Jonathan what are you referring  to ? Has a link been lost ?


----------



## Jonathan111

basilio said:


> Sorry Jonathan what are you referring  to ? Has a link been lost ?




Check the asx Ann out on fri after market close.


----------



## dogeatdog

I'm sad to witness a lack of progress in general with Linc.
The contents of the attached article would certainly have a negative impact on the SP, as it would I assume, slow down any royalties due to Linc via the Adani deal.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...strategy-exposed/story-e6frg9df-1226289933461

Not a share holder.


----------



## Jonathan111

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...hin-three-months/story-e6frg9df-1226294467883

Linc CEO predicts JV or sale of Teresa coal within three months 

by: Rhiannon Hoyle 
From: Dow Jones Newswires 
March 09, 20128:44AM


LINC Energy expects a deal within the next three months of either a joint-venture or a sale for its Teresa coal property in Queensland, the company's chief executive said. 

The company, which has energy assets in Australia, the US, Alaska and Uzbekistan, confirmed in late January it was exploring a range of options for the asset, including full divestment, partial divestment or joint venture opportunities. 

Speaking at the ASX Emerging Growth conference in London, Peter Bond said: *"We expect some sort of JV or sale to progress on Teresa in the next 90 days...we are getting a lot of interest in this asset".* 

Earlier this year, Linc also said it was in discussions with a potential cornerstone investor, with which it may pursue underground coal gasification and gas-to-liquids opportunities in China.


----------



## basilio

Looks like some action on LNC this morning - probably as a result of Peter Bonds prediction of a Teresa sale/JV within 3 months. 

But other things have also been happening.

1) Gasifier 5 is now working very effectively at Chinchilla. Apparently that means it is ready to go at any UCG operation LNC develops around the world

2) The Alkaline Fuel Cell technology is very, very close  to commercialization. The company has announced  it is stepping up inhouse fuel cell production (prior to high volume  external production)  and the trials with Akzo chemicals appear to be  progressing without a hint of problems.

The game changer for LNC would be using it's UCG capacities to produce carbon free base load power from coal at very competitive prices. This could be a lot closer than realised.

http://www.lincenergy.com/investor_linc.php?articleId=83

http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...onal-production-facility-investment-approved/


----------



## Jonathan111

By Ross Kelly 
-- CEO says Chinese entity to take a relatively small stake 

-- New interest in Teresa coal asset after several bids rejected last year 

-- Linc may packaging Teresa with other coal assets for sale 

-- CEO sees Linc Energy becoming profitable by the end of 2012 

SYDNEY -(MarketWatch)- Australia's Linc Energy Ltd. said it hopes to secure investment in the company by a Chinese entity within weeks, and has experienced fresh interest in an auction of Australian coal assets worth over A$1 billion. 

Linc hopes to build its next commercial underground coal gasification, or UCG, project in China with assistance from the unnamed Chinese investor, Chief Executive Peter Bond told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview. 

UCG is being investigated by several international energy companies as a technology that has the potential to tap enormous and otherwise inaccessible coal reserves, and to slow the speed of climate change. The process involves burning the coal where it lies, deep below the Earth's surface, then extracting the gases produced for applications including powering turbines or the production of chemicals. 

Bond declined to say how much of Brisbane-based Linc will be sold, but said the investment likely won't be has high as 10-20%. 

"It'll be a relatively small stake," Bond said. "But I think in the scheme of things it will be significant to the commercialization of underground coal gasification and gas-to-liquids. And it'll be a significant revaluation of some of the assets within the group, including the UCG technology." 

Bond said the China deal was expected to be completed this quarter. "I still think we're very close to doing that," he said. 

Linc, which has a market value of A$643 million, wants to produce liquid transport fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel from coal by employing UCG and gas-to-liquids, or GTL, technology. 

It already has an operational UCG facility in Uzbekistan, which feeds a power plant, and has built a GTL demonstration plant in Australia's Queensland state. 

To bring in funding the company sold its Emerald coal property to India's Adani Enterprises Ltd. for A$500 million plus royalties in 2010. It's also acquired producing oil assets in the U.S. to generate cashflow to support its growth. 

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange last week, Linc said it declined a number of offers for its Teresa coal property because they were either too low, or it didn't like the implied post-transaction ownership structure. Discussions are continuing with several potential new buyers, it said at the time. 

Bond said that although the company received "a couple of firm offers" for Teresa, it had to consider them in the context of all its coal assets, including the Pentland property and Great Northern Leases. 

"There's probably over A$1 billion of hard value in our coal assets and you've got to be pretty smart about how you unlock the value. I want to do an aggressive sale process on the bulk of the coal asset base because I think between now and the end of the year is a good time to do it," he said. 

A wave of merger and acquisitions activity has swept over Australia's coal sector, generated by strong demand for metallurgical coal used in steelmaking and thermal coal used in electricity generation from rapidly industrializing countries such as China and India. But not all companies selling assets have been successful, with Bandanna Energy Ltd. (BND.AU) and Whitehaven Coal Ltd. (WHC.AU) both terminating formal sales processes after failing to attract adequate bids. 

Linc's oil fields in Texas and Louisiana are currently producing about 3,000 barrels per day and Bond said the company is on track to hit 7,000 barrels per day by the end of 2012. This increased output rate would equate to around A$250 million of revenue and A$120 million-A$130 million of operating cashflow, he said. 

Linc on Friday booked A$48.7 million net loss for the six months to Dec. 31. Bond said cashflow from the U.S. assets should make the company profitable by the end of 2012 and that, over the longer term, it may consider spin-offs and offshore listings of separate business units

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/linc-energy-close-to-investment-from-china-entity-2012-03-18


----------



## basilio

LNC is  continuing to fall away. Dropped  more than 30% since the January spike. Any thoughts on the persistent weakness ? Any inside or outside goss ?


----------



## luckypaul

STINKY LINKY the "ex" leader in the UCG market are falling way, way behind or so it appears. I have an image of them behind the garage smoking a joint while their investors sit in the front room with their head in their hands!  ...or maybe they have been working away furiously behind the scenes and are just about to SURPRISE the world. 

*UK Companies*



> *OXFORD CATALYSTS (OCG)*: A synthetic fuels company, with its Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reactors, today announced its latest full-year results. The highlights are:
> 
> Orders received for full scale FT units: one for SGC Energia; two for a Fortune 500 company; and one for a diversified energy company (although this was after the period of these results)
> 
> Progressed to Phase 2 of gas-to-liquid (GTL) engineering study for 15,000 barrels per day facility in North America
> 
> Several $millions committed for commercialization by offshore GTL partners post period end
> 
> One year successful continuous operation of Group's FT catalyst achieved
> 
> Market outlook is good – arbitrage between gas and oil prices in US is at exceptional level
> 
> Revenue of £4.7 million (2010: £7.7 million) reflecting continuing transition to commercial activities
> 
> Raised £21m before expenses through an oversubscribed equity placing
> 
> Cash at period end of £17.1 million (2010: £5.7 million)
> 
> *Pierre Jungels, Chairman of Oxford Catalysts, said:*
> 
> "_I am delighted with the progress that the Group has made throughout 2011 in moving ahead towards commercialisation. The Company has taken significant steps in all areas necessary to deliver commercial sales of its products, and has started to receive orders for its FT reactors. The level of interest in our technology is at an all-time high and there appear to be exceptional opportunities, particularly in North America arising from near record low gas prices as a result of the shale gas production boom. Our GTL offering looks ideally placed to exploit the highly attractive arbitrage between low gas and high oil prices. With the Company well capitalised following the fund raising in 2011, we look forward to building on this progress to achieve further success in 2012_."
> 
> Note: OCG's full scale FT units mentioned *are 15,000 barrels a day* - sound familiar???
> *Yesterday's Price 48.5p*




*WILDHORSE ENERGY (WHE)*



> If you've been following Tom's updates, you'll know he's been waiting for the results of a Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS). These came out yesterday.
> 
> This was to allow some independent experts to assess Wildhorse's licence area and put some numbers on its Mecsek Hills underground coal gasification (UCG) project in Hungary.
> 
> The results of the PFS confirm the preliminary findings from 1 June 2011, indicating 'attractive economic and technical potential of supplying syngas as a gas feedstock for power stations.'
> 
> The project consists of two distinct phases:
> 
> 1. Phase I is a commercial demonstration UCG plant, designed to have a capacity of approximately 130 MWt of syngas. This would be used to supply a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant. Both the UCG and CCGT are expected to be operational by the fourth quarter of 2014.
> 
> 2. Phase II is the development of a large scale commercial plant designed to have capacity of approximately 280 MWt of syngas, with UGC facility to supply syngas to a potential 130 MW power plant. The development of this phase will commence after the commissioning of Phase I.
> 
> Wildhorse also announced an updated JORC Inferred coal resource of 383 million tonnes at Mecsek Hills. *Yesterdays Price: 8.75p*




Yours, forever waiting for news, LuckyPaul (except on stock markets!)


----------



## Calliope

The merits of a project cut no ice when the land holders cozy up to the greenies.



> But the new Premier yesterday said it was "inappropriate" to expand the mine in the state's southern food bowl, 150km west of Brisbane. *Mr Newman also said he would oppose the creation of Australia's first coal-to-liquids project on fertile farmland at Felton, on the Darling Downs. French company Ambre Energy claims the $3 billion project could supply one-fifth of Queensland's unleaded petrol and LPG needs*.






> Ambre Energy director Michael van Baarle said yesterday his company would not be dissuaded from pursuing the coal-to-liquid project: "We haven't had an opportunity to speak to the new government or the new bureaucracy. We've always supported protection of cropping land."




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...e-shut-on-miners/story-fnbsqt8f-1226312958263


----------



## basilio

I seem to remember last year that LNC was in discussions with Oxford Catalysts  re their reactor. After all  why would you try to develop your own technology when a clearly excellent vehicle was already being produced ?

I suggest that the diversified energy company referred to as one of the buyers in Lucky Pauls comments could be LNC. Would certainly make sense.

There is also another excellent discussion on the potential of Oxford Catalysts. 

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...-catalyst-gHy8amiXYMUGYZhKiZ4ioM/article.html


----------



## basilio

Announcement this morning regarding contract  with Chinese company on joint development of UCG to GTL  plant. 

LNC up 35%

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-405.pdf


----------



## skc

A very strange deal... GCL to take $120m (5%) of LNC at $4.50... or 30m shares.

Who in their right mind accept placement at $4.50 a share when the last traded price was ~$1.10. Even with the sharp rise to $1.40 today, you are only down ~$100m straight away! 

Wouldn't they be better off just buying the 30m shares on market for $1.10-1.20, then loan the rest of the money to LNC at so minimal interest? 

Great deal for LNC, however.

On the charts - $1.50 resistance was in sight but probably won't be breached today. $1 support was tested again last week and proved firm. That's a pretty big trading range being established..


----------



## mr. jeff

skc said:


> A very strange deal... GCL to take $120m (5%) of LNC at $4.50... or 30m shares.
> 
> Who in their right mind accept placement at $4.50 a share when the last traded price was ~$1.10. Even with the sharp rise to $1.40 today, you are only down ~$100m straight away!
> 
> Wouldn't they be better off just buying the 30m shares on market for $1.10-1.20, then loan the rest of the money to LNC at so minimal interest?
> 
> Great deal for LNC, however.
> 
> On the charts - $1.50 resistance was in sight but probably won't be breached today. $1 support was tested again last week and proved firm. That's a pretty big trading range being established..




At first glance this may appear great for LNC, but for the price of a meat pie, GCL are getting access to all of LNC's IP and the use of that throughout China FOREVER.
That appears to me a major compromise, whilst LNC is selling it as though the company is worth X Billion. 

If the company was worth X billion it would trade at X billion.

This entry may change things for LNC we will see.


----------



## basilio

I think this announcement will start a long overdue revaluation of LNC shares.  It seems the technology is now sorted out and with the capital injection by GCL and the JV agreement the opportunity to turn coal into diesel at a big profit is being fast tracked.

It will be interesting to see some financial analysis of  the project.


----------



## skc

mr. jeff said:


> At first glance this may appear great for LNC, but for the price of a meat pie, GCL are getting access to all of LNC's IP and the use of that throughout China FOREVER.
> That appears to me a major compromise, whilst LNC is selling it as though the company is worth X Billion.
> 
> If the company was worth X billion it would trade at X billion.
> 
> This entry may change things for LNC we will see.




That's a reasonable interpretation. Say they sold 30m new shares at more reasonable prices ($1.20) and they sold essentially 2/3 of their IP to China for the rest of the money or ~$80-90m. They still retain the rest of the world + 1/3 of the upside in China.

I guess that's better than not having any money from the UGC/GTL/HMSM* process.

*HMSM = Hopefully Make Some Money


----------



## basilio

As I read the deal LNC will be getting a 1/3 cut of all the  UCG /GTL plants that will be built in China through the JV in return for their IP technology. Their Chines partner is very big and it seems quite capable of rolling out the infrastructure.

China is a huge market (obviously..) Creating a JV vehicle with a strong Chinese company seems like the most practical way LNC could gain access to this market. The Chinese are just too practical to allow a foreign company to effectively take away the value of all their  underground coal. 

The project also underpins the necessity for China to gain energy independence for liquid fuels.

I think this makes excellent commercial sense. Great win/win negotiation.


----------



## basilio

Just checking back on LNC's recent press releases.  In March 19th Peter Bond stated LNC was very close to sealing a JV deal with a Chinese company. The SP then was $1.33.

Since then the SP has drifted (plunged !!?) to $1.05. Todays rally on the signing of the JV agreement merely takes LNC to the March 19th price. There has to be a bigger revaluation of this company.


----------



## basilio

Hmmm.... That was all a bit underwhelming. LNC finishes at day low of $1.27 which is substantially under  the price when Peter Bond announced they were very close to signing off the JV deal.

Perhaps the US market will have more to say tonight and maybe some of the stock analysts can tell us a story on how much this all be worth....

_______________________________________________________________________

On another note.  I remember that last September LNC announced a buy back of up to 5% of stock or around 25 million shares. On last count they had bought around 10 million. Could they go into the market with the Chinese money, buy the remaining 15 million at $1.30 and sell them to the Chinese for $4.50 ?  

Or would that be just too naughty !


----------



## skc

The transformation of LNC's balance sheet from 30 Jun 2011 to 30 Dec 2011 was nothing short of breath-taking.

Cash reduced from $310m to $32m. Debt increased from $2m to $127m. All these were turned into $358m Oil and Gas assets. Given the timing of these acquisitions, the last financial report makes it quite difficult to analyse their returns. The HY report only showed $19m revenue and a negative $48m operating result.

Along the way, LNC changed from an undervalued asset play to something that I have no idea how to value. Their 1 year share price chart suggests to me, however, that the buyback has been largely a waste of money.


----------



## basilio

Correction to previous post. LNC can still buy back 17.877 million shares under its buyback arrangement.
http://www.buysellsignals.com/10211283


----------



## skc

A few more downticks and the gap @ $1.10 would be closed. Guess no one buying yesterday at $1.45+ expected such a quick turnaround.

Slightly negative view on yesterday's announcement.



> RBS Australia rates as Buy (1) - Linc has finally taken a step along its path of Chinese aspiration with a 67/33 JV with China's green power generator (among other things) Golden Concord. To the broker, the terms look good.   The problem is Golden Concord is not a big company, not a coal miner, and has no coal tenements, the broker notes. Not only will coal tenements have to be acquired but Linc is giving up its proprietary technology to a small player and surprising choice, the broker suggests.  More information would be useful.




From http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsc...03/fn-arena-broker-call-headlines-17-apr-2012


----------



## notting

If it can do another dive like that tomorrow it may find itself in the Ausi Olympic team!
Then take out the rolling year record low. 
And get the gold medal for idiots all round.


----------



## StumpyPhantom

notting said:


> If it can do another dive like that tomorrow it may find itself in the Ausi Olympic team!
> Then take out the rolling year record low.
> And get the gold medal for idiots all round.




Yeah - I think LNC shareholders are going to be disappointed to see this downtrend continue for as long as the UCG technology, for all the promise that it shows, can't show $1 of revenue.

Is anyone out there any closer to any credible reports about UCG and how close we are?  Otherwise (or alternatively) can someone have a view about buying LNC on a Contracts for Difference basis.  Hopefully, this is at a fraction of the cost and will more acceptably allow the holder to sit on the sidelines waiting for something to happen (which could take a few more years).


----------



## skc

StumpyPhantom said:


> Yeah - I think LNC shareholders are going to be disappointed to see this downtrend continue for as long as the UCG technology, for all the promise that it shows, can't show $1 of revenue.
> 
> Is anyone out there any closer to any credible reports about UCG and how close we are?  Otherwise (or alternatively) can someone have a view about buying LNC on a Contracts for Difference basis.  Hopefully, this is at a fraction of the cost and will more acceptably allow the holder to sit on the sidelines waiting for something to happen (which could take a few more years).




How's buying LNC on CFD more acceptable and allow the holder to sit on the sideline? 

What ever position size you have with CFD, you'd have the exact same exposure to holding the real shares. The cost of carry for CFD is actually higher because you pay interest on the full position size. And if you don't actually have the money for the full position size, you are liable for losses greater than what you have put up as margin.

That's exactly the wrong way to use CFD. Don't do it.


----------



## Mickel

Interesting comments by PB following yesterday's announcement-

"Linc Energy Chief Executive Peter Bond, who owns 40 percent of the company, said the joint venture aims to produce 100,000 barrels a day of diesel for the Chinese market.

The venture with GCL Projects, a unit of Hong Kong-based Golden Concord Holdings, will build plants that will turn gas extracted deep underground from coal into diesel. Their first gas-to-liquids plant is slated to start in 2014.

"I think China will become a significant player," Bond told Reuters in an interview.

"You've got so many advantages in China in terms of fast-tracking a project, cheap capital, a huge consumer base, a fairly low tax regime," he said.

He said ideally half of Linc's production would be in China within three years.

"It will take probably four to five years before it's 50 percent of our income," Bond said."
and
"Bond said the joint venture's first plant in China would probably be in Inner Mongolia. It aims to start construction later this year."

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/chinas-gcl-australias-linc-diesel-deal-linc-shares-022739579.html

It appears that the Gassifiers could be up and running at least 12 months before the GTL plant is finished. What to do with the gas ????

Did someone mention EOR ? Any depleted oil wells close to Inner Mongolia ? Mmmmm !
Have a look at this web page-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_China

The North East section of Inner Mongolia is adjacent to many oil fields and the Daqing and Dadang fields were established in the 1960's.

Can anyone add to this picture ?


----------



## Calliope

Mickel said:


> Can anyone add to this picture ?




 Yes. Peter Bomd is the master of spin, or to put it bluntly he is full of bullsh*t.


----------



## Smurf1976

In theory the gas could also be used as fuel in the conventional manner for factories, power stations, cement works and the like. Whether or not there is any such facility within reasonable distance I don't know, but it's technically very possible to use the gas in this way.

That said, I don't really trust the promises of this company and won't until I see them actually achieve something in terms of production.


----------



## Mickel

PB speaks to BRR about latest announcement regarding the China deal.

he states the documentation should be signed "within a few weeks" and is
confident that gas will be flowing by the end of the year.


http://www.brrmedia.com/event/96214/partner/couriermail


----------



## topsprog

I tried to find any press releases by GC related to the Linc announcement. None located. I proceeded to try and untangle the various Golden Concord entities - I suspect a knowledge of Chinese might have helped. The Hong Listed Company seems to be  described as a subsidiary of GC Holdings, however I had no luck untangling the corporate structure of the various entities/affiliates.  

More interestingly way back in 2007 USA Synthesis Energy Systems Investments Inc. announced a contract with Golden Concord to build a coal gasification plant in Inner Mongolia, China, with plans to use the abundant lignite present there. I have not found a 'Link' to the fate of this deal - I suspect a Big Zero. More on this at:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=56062&msgnum=897&batchsize=10&batchtype=Next


----------



## Mickel

This may be of interest regarding Golden Concord's financing-

"GCL-POLY ENERGY : Golden Concord Group Obtained Substantial Support from China Development Bank Corporation as the Two Parties Entered into A Financing Cooperation Agreement for Development
06/01/2011 | 08:00pm

For Immediate Release 1 June 2011

Golden Concord Group Obtained Substantial Support fromChina Development Bank Corporation as the Two Parties Entered intoA Financing Cooperation Agreement for Development
On 1 June 2011, China Development Bank Corporation and Golden Concord Group Limited (“Golden Concord Group”, the “Company” or the “Group”) signed an agreement for financial development and cooperation in Hong Kong, pursuant to which both parties agreed to build a new investment and financing model which would deepen cooperation in all front between the financing group and industrial group and capitalise on China Development Bank Corporation’s financial capabilities as well as the Group’s competitive edges in industrial investment and management expertise. The agreement aims to establish a long-term and stable strategic partnership for mutual benefits and development.

Pursuant to the agreement, China Development Bank Corporation will provide financial support to Golden Concord Group’s domestic and overseas investment projects in foreign currency and Renminbi in the next 5 years in order to fulfill the capital requirements of Golden Concord Group for its future development. GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. (“GCL-Poly”) (Stock code: HK.3800) is the major support target which engages in businesses including solar photovoltaic materials, green energy, solar farm system integration and overseas solar farms. The financing support is to ensure GCL-Poly will undergo further technology innovation, improvement of production capacity and reduction of production costs, thus ultimately downsizing the costs of the global solar power generation industry. The agreement also involves other green energy industry projects of Golden Concord Group in relation to energy saving and storage."

http://www.4-traders.com/GCL-POLY-E...rt-from-China-Development-Bank-Corp-13650787/


----------



## johnpw

Is the Teresa coal ever going to be sold? This has been going on for 3.5 years now!



luckypaul said:


> Hi Jonathon111
> 
> 
> 
> I read that too but I'm sorry, I don't believe it, for the following reason.
> 
> The sale announced on 5th Sep 2008 http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-94.pdf  was preceeded a few months earlier by a Jorc upgrade for Emerald/Teresa to 470 million tonnes (which was expected to be increased to 650 million tonnes) http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-87.pdf.
> 
> The Merriman Curhan Ford's analysis dated 17/07/09 said Emerald was 852 MT and Pentland 266MT. Here is that link http://www.mcfco.com/extend_Research...7-17-09).pdf
> 
> Also do not forget we will soon get updates on Galilee that could be significant (maybe to 10 billion) but current JORC is 7.8 BILLION tonnes.
> 
> That is a LOT more coal than was sold for AUD 1.5 billion in Sep 2008 and  since then thermal coal prices are only down 35% (see my post above) from Sep 08 whilst the Emerald/Teresa inferred resource is up 80% (from 470 to 852).
> 
> AUD 1.5 billion for Emerald alone maybe!
> 
> For Pentland and the MASSIVE Galilee too...I'd want lots, lots more. Maybe  AUD 4-6 billion??? I think that is part of the reason for slow progress, i.e. too few companies around that can swallow that size of investment. We shall see but I think my logic above makes sense. Feel free to comment even if it is a slapdown for being ever hopeful.  Note: I am a long time holder so definitely positively biased  :


----------



## basilio

Real question mark about the Teresa coal sale. LNC is going ahead with developing the mine with a view to improving its saleability but perhaps the time is passing for big coal mine sales.

What does concern me is the  current unnerving collapse of the SP. Currently 1.02 and under heavy selling pressure with little support. Ironically Per Bond is flying around the country on a  jet fuelled with LNC produced  GTL diesel.  Doesn't seem to be impressing the market at the moment.

And yet... within a few weeks LNC will be receiving a $60m cash injection for 2.5% of its shares and the finance to start building a UCG plant in China.  Seemingly all totally discounted by the market.

Is LNC  the best bargain in the market at the moment??


----------



## Mr McGee

basilio said:


> Is LNC the best bargain in the market at the moment??




I hope so! The SP has me stuffed??


----------



## basilio

Still pressure on LNC SP.  There are now some press stories on Peter  Bonds flight around Australia using  synthetic jet fuel produced at  Chinchilla. And the picture is not a good look.

Unfortunately the article from the Perth paper confused UCG with coal seam gas ands opened up that particular can  of worms.  It will be interesting to see how quickly that mistake gets corrected.

I also understand there is still  heavy short selling of LNC.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/linc-ene...est-new-jet-fuel/story-fn6mh7xb-1226347581165


----------



## Calliope

Peter Bond was interviewed by Steve Austin on ABC Morning show. I think it prompted todays spike.


----------



## Toolong

Another fantastic day for LNC..  Watched an interview with PB the other day and when asked why the share price had fallen despite the jet promo PB said, 'I think the market wants to see execution'...  Hello Hello.. McFLY is there anyone home?  Real execution without the spin PB would be a start.  If you havn't noticed the market doesn't trust you anymore.

Bought in at over $3 in 2009, so staying in just to see how much of a disaster this mgt team is.


----------



## Mr McGee

So you bought into this stock when it was close (if not AT) its three year high? Bugger!  I have a HUGE holding in this company and although the SP is a worry at the moment, I just look at it as the best garage sale of the year! The real estate that this company owns is worth more then the book value at the end of today, so Im not concerned. I buy more if I can handle the stress (I can), take a deep breath and carry on.


----------



## basilio

It is unnerving to see such a slump as todays effort. I guess a lot of stop losss were hit which just kept dropping the price.

Certainly the value of LNC's assets are now above its SP. But then in 2008 there were more more than a few companies selling for far less than the actual cash in the bank let alone  producing assets.

Getting the initial cash for the  Concord deal and proving the UCG-GTL process in China has to be  a turning point. But the current collapse is  very testing....


----------



## StumpyPhantom

basilio said:


> It is unnerving to see such a slump as todays effort. I guess a lot of stop losss were hit which just kept dropping the price.
> 
> Certainly the value of LNC's assets are now above its SP. But then in 2008 there were more more than a few companies selling for far less than the actual cash in the bank let alone  producing assets.
> 
> Getting the initial cash for the  Concord deal and proving the UCG-GTL process in China has to be  a turning point. But the current collapse is  very testing....




The indicators that I look at are still pointing downward?  I'm keen to hear from any technical analysts as to whether they can discern a stopping (or even slowing) of this trend.


----------



## basilio

Interesting to see Clive Palmers Galilee coal play could be in doubt.  Seems like a few of the partners have pulled out. 

At this stage there seems no suggestion that LNC's sale partner (Adani) is not going ahead at full steam. In fact at last call they were planning to upgrade the output and thus increase the royalty stream for LNC shareholders. 

*This deal alone* is worth at least $120m plus a year income to LNC  over 20 years or perhaps (my guess)  $800-1b immediate cash in hand. 

At last SP LNC was valued at $457m... Unless the Adani project has serious undisclosed problems this deal alone makes LNC incredibly undervalued.



> Galilee Coal Royalty, Queensland
> 
> As part of the sale of its Galilee tenement (renamed ‘Carmichael’) to the Adani Group of India last year, Linc Energy secured a royalty of $2 per tonne (indexed to CPI) over the first twenty years of production. With Adani planning a 60 million tonne per annum coal mine on the site, Linc Energy holds an extremely valuable royalty deed that may earn in excess of $120 million per annum at full production.
> 
> Since the sale last year, Adani has secured the 99 year lease of the X50 Abbot Point Coal Terminal near Bowen and is a preferred proponent to develop the proposed Dudgeon Point Coal Terminal near Mackay. Adani is also expected to bid for one of the new terminals at Abbot Point. Linc Energy will continue to update the market on this future revenue stream as Adani work towards their stated goal of having first production from Carmichael in 2014.





http://www.theage.com.au/business/p...rchase-contract-cancelled-20120510-1yfpc.html

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-406.pdf


----------



## calais

The announcement on the 16th April tells us about the J/V with GCL, having 66% and Linc 33%. But does not say who will pay for the capex of the projects. 
Pb says on BRR the construction should start  by years end and be reasonable in size.
No mention of how many barrels per day or costs. 
I don't understand the following statement from the announcement 'commercial UCG gas facility consisting of initially four (4) commercial size UCG gasifiers working in parallel (with GCL having an option to expand this to six (6) gasifiers).'

Is Linc starting with syngas only or using ucg/gtl for the first project in China?


----------



## basilio

calais said:


> The announcement on the 16th April tells us about the J/V with GCL, having 66% and Linc 33%. But does not say who will pay for the capex of the projects.
> Pb says on BRR the construction should start  by years end and be reasonable in size.
> No mention of how many barrels per day or costs.
> I don't understand the following statement from the announcement 'commercial UCG gas facility consisting of initially four (4) commercial size UCG gasifiers working in parallel (with GCL having an option to expand this to six (6) gasifiers).'
> 
> Is Linc starting with syngas only or using ucg/gtl for the first project in China?




The announcement said that that Concord would provide $15m for construction of the UCG capacity (over 3 years)  and that CAPEX for the  overall project would be the responsibility of GCL. 

The documents should be signed up fairly soon with a $60m cheque to LNC for 2.5% of stock and another $60m (for another 2.5% stake)  when the UCG facility is completed.

This should be the game maker for LNC.   It will be the commercial proving ground for their UCG to GTL promise which they can then replicate around the world in the billions of tons of underground coal they have  purchased.

On paper one would question why GCL would pay the $4.50 a share for what are currently 68c shares. The clever part (IMO) is that by proving the technology in China and getting the license and technology at quiet a reasonable price GCL will turn the speculative value of LNC underground coal into  commercial reality thus easily justifying the introductory price. 

And meanwhile the SP is still in free fall.


----------



## StumpyPhantom

basilio said:


> And meanwhile the SP is still in free fall.




Why the sad face?

The real question is how illusory or speculative the promise/potential being shown here is.  And I would apreciate your view on this, as it's been earlier said that this Chinese deal has already created the platform for it to launch into the stratosphere.

If you're persuasive enough about this (including persuading yourself), then you should be  and loading up for whatever you're worth, bringing the dollar cost average down (if you entered previously) and just waiting for it to go back up.

It might be where Angels fear to tread, but that's the sort of opportunity that this irrational market shows up.  Do we know whether Peter Bond is loading up at this price?


----------



## basilio

It is a very conflicted situation Stumpy. 

In the big picture there is the possibility that we will going into financial meltdown if/when Europe falls apart. Collapsing banks,  collapsing economies , collapsing countries will destroy people and businesses without discrimination. On the energy front such a collapse would drop energy prices sharply which in the short-medium term throw LNC's model into a heap. I think there are many iron clad companies at the moment looking very cheap because of this fear.

With regard to LNC we can't say they have met their targets. Teresa should have been sold by now to ensure financial stability and capacity for financing the UCG - GTL projects. I'm not that convinced the  Wyoming oil fields are coming up to speed as predicted with the CO2 injection.  I think that has slowed down.  The Alaskan fields were supposed to show commercial gas early in the piece - but didn't . The long term looks good - but that is years away.

I'm still wondering how cost effective and technology effective the UCG -GTL process is.  As far as I can see LNC has not publicly laid out the proposed technology stream which will be implemented in China. Is there a clear, cost effective GTL plant ready to run ? Is it LNC's technology or are they getting off the shelf from another provider ?  No problem if they do but I'd like to know.

I have also been keeping an eye on the UK fuel cell technology (AFC fuel cell - LNC has 12 %) which could be a perfect fit for LNC's UCG process. It looks like the fuel cell is operating exceptionally well but I havn't seen any indication that LNC intend to commercialize it in the near term. That's disappointing.

When you add up the underlying resources and opportunities LNC has,  it is a multi billion dollar company.  But that may not be enough to win if the whole game gets blown up or it can't play it's hand right. That is the dilemma.


----------



## basilio

Did a  bit more homework on LNC's proposed GTL technology. 

There are many indications that LNC will be commissioning an Oxford Catalysts  GTL reactor for its China program and hopefully at Chinchilla to feed off the  UCG gasifer 5 unit.

There is some good discussion on the Oxford Catalysts Interactive Investor forum  which pulls together the connections. 

It would be a huge relief if this actually begins and the market can see a tangible  monetizing of LNC's underground coal assets. From both parties point of view a keenly priced initial plant to prove the process would make  excellent commercial sense.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:OCG.L&display=discussion&it=le


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> It is a very conflicted situation Stumpy.
> 
> In the big picture there is the possibility that we will going into financial meltdown if/when Europe falls apart. Collapsing banks,  collapsing economies , collapsing countries will destroy people and businesses without discrimination. On the energy front such a collapse would drop energy prices sharply which in the short-medium term throw LNC's model into a heap. I think there are many iron clad companies at the moment looking very cheap because of this fear.
> 
> With regard to LNC we can't say they have met their targets. Teresa should have been sold by now to ensure financial stability and capacity for financing the UCG - GTL projects. I'm not that convinced the  Wyoming oil fields are coming up to speed as predicted with the CO2 injection.  I think that has slowed down.  The Alaskan fields were supposed to show commercial gas early in the piece - but didn't . The long term looks good - but that is years away.
> 
> I'm still wondering how cost effective and technology effective the UCG -GTL process is.  As far as I can see LNC has not publicly laid out the proposed technology stream which will be implemented in China. Is there a clear, cost effective GTL plant ready to run ? Is it LNC's technology or are they getting off the shelf from another provider ?  No problem if they do but I'd like to know.
> 
> I have also been keeping an eye on the UK fuel cell technology (AFC fuel cell - LNC has 12 %) which could be a perfect fit for LNC's UCG process. It looks like the fuel cell is operating exceptionally well but I havn't seen any indication that LNC intend to commercialize it in the near term. That's disappointing.
> 
> When you add up the underlying resources and opportunities LNC has,  it is a multi billion dollar company.  But that may not be enough to win if the whole game gets blown up or it can't play it's hand right. That is the dilemma.




Accurate information, and view Basilio.
I'm a former LNC share holder, having accumulated shares between June 2010 and 2011. I sold on the way down from A$3.28, luckily making a nice profit.
Like many other investors, I've lost confidence in Peter Bond.
IMHO, his ventures into O&G have been thus far, a disaster.
Having said that, I will buy in again if the SP falls to +/-50c.
I'm fearful of shorting the stock, at it's current price, as history has proved the SP can shoot up.


----------



## recruit2

dogeatdog said:


> Like many other investors, I've lost confidence in Peter Bond.
> IMHO, his ventures into O&G have been thus far, a disaster.




The fact that guy has balls and repeatedly gets back on the horse may actually see him eventually succeed. Repeated failure often leads to success as entrepreneurs tend to work out every which way NOT TO do things until they find the way that works. Failure is a good thing, but Aus is such a risk averse culture.

I bought a pile of LNC today at 0.685 because its a bargain at this price with quite a bit of upshot potential.


----------



## StumpyPhantom

recruit2 said:


> The fact that guy has balls and repeatedly gets back on the horse may actually see him eventually succeed. Repeated failure often leads to success as entrepreneurs tend to work out every which way NOT TO do things until they find the way that works. Failure is a good thing, but Aus is such a risk averse culture.
> 
> I bought a pile of LNC today at 0.685 because its a bargain at this price with quite a bit of upshot potential.




I think that's an astute buy.  Unless GFC2 takes over the stock market, I think the bottom of this stock is around here - minimum 60 cents - and over the next 2-4 weeks.


----------



## dogeatdog

recruit2 said:


> The fact that guy has balls and repeatedly gets back on the horse may actually see him eventually succeed. Repeated failure often leads to success as entrepreneurs tend to work out every which way NOT TO do things until they find the way that works. Failure is a good thing, but Aus is such a risk averse culture.
> 
> I bought a pile of LNC today at 0.685 because its a bargain at this price with quite a bit of upshot potential.




Balls he may have, vision! time will tell.
SP down at 63c as I write.
(Currently not a share holder)


----------



## basilio

Really is time for an update on LNCs activities. The lack of support at these SP suggest either an uniformed market or large scale loss of confidence in the whole share market.

Peter Bond always made a big play for smaller shareholders.  Can't be many of those that are happy at the moment.


----------



## Mr McGee

I fear that even good news on the GCL deal won't carry enough weight to bounce this back to prices we were at four weeks ago. If the GCL deal gets over the line (and I think it will), people will start to make comment on how $60mil is only enough to sustain the current negative cash flow position for a finite time. My view is that the answer to a sustained rise in the SP is closely tied to an increase in US oil production. I don't think punters will even care if the targets are NOT met, as long as production is moving in the right direction. Strangely, the SP seems tied not to the primary focus of this business  but that of what will eventually (if you believe PB) be a distant second. The next quarterly report out on July 30ish will be interesting. 
So I agree that the market seems to be both uninformed and scared silly, but more importantly...faithless.


My


----------



## dogeatdog

StumpyPhantom said:


> I think that's an astute buy.  Unless GFC2 takes over the stock market, I think the bottom of this stock is around here - minimum 60 cents - and over the next 2-4 weeks.




13% down day, to 59.5c
European crisis certainly playing havoc with market sentiment.
With such high capex to get the formerly proposed Modular GTL units up and running, will we ever see Linc producing meaningful quantities of Hydro carbons, allowing the SP to recover to historic levels


----------



## feetdawg

dogeatdog said:


> 13% down day, to 59.5c
> European crisis certainly playing havoc with market sentiment.
> With such high capex to get the formerly proposed Modular GTL units up and running, will we ever see Linc producing meaningful quantities of Hydro carbons, allowing the SP to recover to historic levels




Assuming commercial scale UCG and GTL is feasible (5,000 bpd plants duplicated), which LNC feels certain it is, and GCL will cover CAPEX with minimal balance sheet impact to Linc, you would think LNC is a no brainer long term buy....


----------



## dogeatdog

feetdawg said:


> Assuming commercial scale UCG and GTL is feasible (5,000 bpd plants duplicated), which LNC feels certain it is, and GCL will cover CAPEX with minimal balance sheet impact to Linc, you would think LNC is a no brainer long term buy....



PB stated that syn gas is likely to be in production by the end of this year. Seems highly unlikely.
I'm also confused why GCL will be paying 4.50 a share for Linc. Unless it's for IP
Any thoughts?


----------



## feetdawg

dogeatdog said:


> PB stated that syn gas is likely to be in production by the end of this year. Seems highly unlikely.
> I'm also confused why GCL will be paying 4.50 a share for Linc. Unless it's for IP
> Any thoughts?




Because there's a complete and utter COST difference between buying 5% of a company in the share market and simply owning 5% of the float and buying 5% of a company's shares while getting access to potentially game changing technology for stranded coal/UCG-GTL and and getting a 67% of the bottom line benefits.

Expertise and technology and 67% share dont come free.  Granted GCL must fund the CAPEX, but if commercial scale UCG-GTL is a reality which can go on for decades in one location, then paying off the capex through 67% stake and producing a barrel of fuel for say $30 will not take a lot of time relative to the longevity of the project.

Theyre paying 120M for 67% and the technology, not just shares.

The timing of the reheated Greek crisis is bad and yes should weigh on the deal somewhat but looking at the assets of Linc, GCL knows they cant expect Linc  to give the technology away after coming all this far for simply buying 5% of their stock in the market.

I have been told that Linc really cracked the UCG GTL nut Gasifier 5/6 and the micro GTL plants available.

Given stranded caol turned into fuel for say $30 a barrel for a period of decades and you are back to 2006 and the initial game changing scenario Linc is attempting.


----------



## basilio

feetdawg said:


> Because there's a complete and utter COST difference between buying 5% of a company in the share market and simply owning 5% of the float and buying 5% of a company's shares while getting access to potentially game changing technology for stranded coal/UCG-GTL and and getting a 67% of the bottom line benefits.
> 
> Expertise and technology and 67% share dont come free.  Granted GCL must fund the CAPEX, but if commercial scale UCG-GTL is a reality which can go on for decades in one location, then paying off the capex through 67% stake and producing a barrel of fuel for say $30 will not take a lot of time relative to the longevity of the project.
> 
> Theyre paying 120M for 67% and the technology, not just shares.
> 
> The timing of the reheated Greek crisis is bad and yes should weigh on the deal somewhat but looking at the assets of Linc, GCL knows they cant expect Linc  to give the technology away after coming all this far for simply buying 5% of their stock in the market.
> 
> *I have been told that Linc really cracked the UCG GTL nut Gasifier 5/6 and the micro GTL plants available.*
> 
> Given stranded caol turned into fuel for say $30 a barrel for a period of decades and you are back to 2006 and the initial game changing scenario Linc is attempting.




Well put feetdawg. I think it is an astute deal by Peter Bond and a good one for both parties.

I'm very interested in your source for  the critical comment on getting the Gasifer 5/6  dead right and satisfaction with the  micro GTL units. These are the main pieces of this deal and I would have thought  there would be a clearer  statement that the technical issues had been resolved and that the commercial reality of this process was now within reach.  Certainly the crash in LNC shares since the announcement of the GCL deal suggest no institutional support for the company.


----------



## basilio

LNC has responded to a "slowing" ticket from ASX. 

All seems positive.  They are still banking on being cash flow positive via the North American oil assets and are not specifically counting on short term financial sales of assets (although these are expected)

Of course if oil drops sharply as a result of a GFC those projections would be revised IMO.

They also noted the sharp rise in shorting during May. 

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...rkets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc


----------



## feetdawg

basilio said:


> Well put feetdawg. I think it is an astute deal by Peter Bond and a good one for both parties.
> 
> I'm very interested in your source for  the critical comment on getting the Gasifer 5/6  dead right and satisfaction with the  micro GTL units. These are the main pieces of this deal and I would have thought  there would be a clearer  statement that the technical issues had been resolved and that the commercial reality of this process was now within reach.  Certainly the crash in LNC shares since the announcement of the GCL deal suggest no institutional support for the company.




Just know UCG in 2006 is not anywhere near what UCG is now and it took Linc years to get there with Gasifier 5/6 and 2006 UCG wasnt up to par for commercial scale UCG GTL.  What the market cant see is that things are actually starting to fall into place and the bigger plan of UCG GTL is closer now than it ever has been.


----------



## skc

basilio said:


> LNC has responded to a "slowing" ticket from ASX.
> 
> All seems positive.  They are still banking on being cash flow positive via the North American oil assets and are not specifically counting on short term financial sales of assets (although these are expected)
> 
> Of course if oil drops sharply as a result of a GFC those projections would be revised IMO.
> 
> They also noted the sharp rise in shorting during May.
> 
> http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...rkets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc




Linc has total of 504.5m shares on issue.

According to ASIC short report, there were 4.26m short position (3.39% of total shares) on 1 May. Come 18 May the number was 24.3m short position (4.81% of total shares. So a total of 20m shares were short sold. Total volume traded between those days were ~50m shares. So around 40% of transactions were short...

These numbers no doubt increased significantly in the last week, where another 37m shares were traded while the price dropped another 18%.

I've got nothing against the morality of shorting per se but it's difficult to see how shorting LNC at this level has sensible reward/risk... but I guess it's easy to join the shorting frency than to go against it.


----------



## namrog

feetdawg said:


> What the market cant see is that things are actually starting to fall into place and the bigger plan of UCG GTL is closer now than it ever has been.




It's been talked about for a long time, so where is the evidence that the technology even works let alone that they are capabale of producing commercial quantities of diesel / liquid fuel ...?

I suspect that if it were so, then the shareprice would be well north of where it is...?

The slump in share price is not just recent, this slide started around July 2011, Why.?  Investors have lost confidence big time, too many irons in the fire, going in all directions but not concentrating on any in particular, especially it seems GTL...

That's not to say it won't be worth a punt when the time comes, ( Greek Euro exit )  and that time I expect could be around the low 50 cent region , that's only my oppinion though..


----------



## namrog

skc said:


> Linc has total of 504.5m shares on issue.
> 
> According to ASIC short report, there were 4.26m short position (3.39% of total shares) on 1 May. Come 18 May the number was 24.3m short position (4.81% of total shares. So a total of 20m shares were short sold. Total volume traded between those days were ~50m shares. So around 40% of transactions were short...
> 
> These numbers no doubt increased significantly in the last week, where another 37m shares were traded while the price dropped another 18%.
> 
> I've got nothing against the morality of shorting per se but it's difficult to see how shorting LNC at this level has sensible reward/risk... but I guess it's easy to join the shorting frency than to go against it.




I'd guess that once major support at 98 cents broke , coupled to the Euro election results / crisis, then baring a major announcement from the company, there was a good chance that the share price was destined to hit around the 50 cent area, as it moves in roughly 50 cent increments, which in the past has roughly proven to be S/R areas .
That's just my theory though....


----------



## basilio

IMO one of the main reasons behind loss of confidence in LNC has been the failure to move Teresa. 

It was supposed to worth $600m plus and would have bankrolled all the development that is now currently underfunded.  We have seen a continuing stream of "almost there" announcements and now I suspect the whole coal market is off the boil. 

I don't think LNC is dead by any stretch but this was a very significant deal in relation to the company.

On the upside I think the GCL deal could be a saver and maker of LNC. I sincerely hope that feetdawg is correct in his confidence on the Gasifier and GTL mini plant. My research also supports that view.  Lets see what happens


----------



## Mr McGee

I'd be interested to know how many margin calls were made for this stock over the last month. By my math, an LVR of 35% would trigger a mass selloff when the stock dropped below 20% of an investors respective buy average. If people bought in off the back of the GCL deal at around $1.20 (16/04) on margin, then news of a continuing cash burn in the last quarterly report released (30/5) that caused some shorting and some long-term holders to run for cash, then add Greece, and you get a SP down to $1 in less than a week. I would suspect that the phone might have started to ring! Try rebalancing under that kind of selling pressure. Not easy.


----------



## basilio

Big upswing today. Up 17% to 70.5c. Buyers outnumbering sellers 2.5 - 1

Perhaps the short sellers are having to cover themselves - or maybe LNC's real value is being recognised.


----------



## basilio

ed.


----------



## Mr McGee

Can't take any credit for this, came from another poster, but it has been pointed out to me that GCL has aquired a 5bil RMB loan from a HK bank for “long-term cooperation, alliance with strong players, mutual benefits and seeking *joint development*” announced today.

http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/attachment/2012052518404117_en.pdf

On today's rate 5bil RMB is around $A800mil.

Make of it what you will???


----------



## williamwong316

*LNC - Linc  Energy and the Chinese partner*

The Chinese GCL has been granted a RMB 5billion from a local bank -- CEB bank for GCL's ongoing business development purpose. according to the exchange rate today, the credit is more than AUD$800 million,  which is more than enough to cover the $120 million deal.

http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/attachment/2012052518404117_en.pdf


----------



## Mickel

feetdawg said:


> Expertise and technology and 67% share dont come free.  Granted GCL must FUND the CAPEX, but if commercial scale UCG-GTL is a reality which can go on for decades in one location, then paying off the capex through 67% stake and producing a barrel of fuel for say $30 will not take a lot of time relative to the longevity of the project.




Feetdawg, I agree with most of your post, but GCL don't have to fund the CAPEX by themselves.

I quote from the announcement-

"GCL also has an obligation to principally arrange CAPEX funding of the commercial projects the joint venture undertakes in China via debt and other structures. Linc Energy will have minimal balance sheet exposure whilst maintaining ownership of 33% of the commercial projects."

I interpret this as the joint venture entity being the borrower and so repaying the debt will come from the joint venture earnings.

Happy to hear different views.

Also happy to see the green with LNC the last 2 days.


----------



## luckypaul

AFC Energy RNS Today 



> Barclays Stockbrokers RNS Alert
> RNS Number : 4693E
> AFC Energy Plc
> 31 May 2012
> 
> AFC Energy PLC
> 
> 
> ("AFC Energy" or the "Company")
> 
> Director change
> 
> AFC Energy (AIM: AFC), the energy company providing alkaline fuel cell systems to industry, is pleased to announce the appointment of Adam Steven Bond as a non-executive director of the Company. Adam joins the board on 1 June 2012 and will represent Linc Energy, a significant shareholder in AFC Energy. He replaces David Smith, who resigned from the board today having changed roles within Linc Energy.
> 
> Adam has been Linc Energy's alternate director during David Smith's term of office. He is currently President Clean Energy at Linc Energy, where he is responsible for the execution and deployment of the company's clean energy, Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) to Gas to Liquids (GTL) projects around the globe.
> 
> Prior to joining Linc Energy, Adam held positions with the British Government as Project Director, Lead Negotiator and Commercial Lead for the United Kingdom's first carbon capture and storage programme. He was also instrumental in the design of the commercial framework for delivery of the United Kingdom's offshore electricity transmission network.
> 
> Tim Yeo, Chairman of AFC Energy, commented: "Firstly, on behalf of the board, I welcome Adam's appointment. Adam is already familiar with AFC Energy and its strategy, having been David Smith's alternate on the board, and he will be invaluable in commercialising our technology for some of our core application markets. Secondly, I thank David for his contribution to the Company and wish him well in his new role at Linc Energy."
> 
> Adam Bond, commenting on his appointment, said: "AFC Energy has been an important strategic investment for Linc Energy. Since investing we have seen the Company make significant technical and commercial progress and we believe that Linc Energy can add significant value to the synergistic relationship. AFC has an exciting future."
> 
> Adam is 36 years old and is a director of Adam Bond Commercial Advisory Limited.
> 
> There are no other matters required to be disclosed pursuant to paragraph (g) of schedule 2 of the AIM Rules.
> 
> 
> Ends


----------



## johnpw

Is AUD ~$0.60 the new norm for Linc Energy?


----------



## basilio

> Is AUD ~$0.60 the new norm for Linc Energy?




We'd hope not wouldn't we ? 

I think many companies are at SP's which seem to have no reflection on their underlying value. LNC joins the group.

Probably the biggest, realistic fear is an economic collapse in Europe which then spreads around the world. In that scenario "underlying value" would disappear in a cypher stroke. Just can't see an easy solution.


----------



## basilio

Nice little story from LNC today on the development of their project with GCL.

They had suggested they would tie up all the loose ends by June 30th so they had to make some sort of statement today.

No cigar yet but it looks like a very good work in progress. It will be fascinating to see if  the market flicks off todays little jump in the same way it dismissed the original announcement !! 

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf


----------



## Mickel

From the recent UBS announcements, it appears that they are one of the main players in the short selling of the stock.
 Hopefully the signing of the GCL deal will put paid to most of the shorters.

The recent statements by LNC on their oil production and target for 6,000 to 7,000 bopd by Dec 2012 give strong hope for  their self funding. Oil production totals over the coming months leading to Dec 2012 will be scrutinised very closely.


----------



## dogeatdog

Oh what a sad demise of Lincs SP.
I'm sure todays announcement helped the plunge. www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-412.pdf
Not so long ago I would have jumped at the chance to buy in again at this level, but not now.
PB needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat, or at least show some resolution to recent, and longer term announcements.
Frustration is a word that comes to mind.
(Currently not a LNC share holder)


----------



## basilio

The LNC market is being well and truly spooked. Currently 48c and struggling to hold  its price.

Just can't see the justification for this loss of confidence. Can only agree with doggie that despite the low SP it feels impossible to get back into the stock with any confidence.

Quarterly results are due tomorrow. If there is some really bad news then we should be asking questions about prompt reporting. But if they are on track with oil production/sales and conclusion of the GCL deal surely there should be a turnaround ?


----------



## Mr Z

Spooked is the word...

I have long term support @ 48 and under that in the 38 to 32 range. Given a QE3 disappointment come Wednesday I could see the 30 range happening and they must be worth the punt at that sort of discount!

Amazing episode!

But that is what stoplosses are for eh?


----------



## Mickel

This is from the Velocys (Oxford Catalysts) website, and the Company receiving the unit is believed to be LNC-

"24th May 2012

Successful Start-up of Commercial Scale FT Reactor

Oxford Catalysts Group PLC, the leading technology innovator for synthetic fuels production, is pleased to announce the successful start-up of a commercial scale Fischer-Tropsch (“FT”) reactor at a client facility, with performance matching expectations.

This is the Group’s first ever start-up of a commercial scale FT unit (with a nominal capacity of over 25 bpd). It is being operated by an integrated energy company, at their facility, to provide detailed engineering information for the design of commercial synthetic fuels plants. Construction and operation of such medium scale modular facilities at sites around the world is a central part of the customer’s strategy. The reactor is expected to operate for three to six months.

The Group announced the sale of this reactor on 9th January 2012. The short time from sale to start-up was a result of close collaboration between the Group and its client, as well as the client having an existing facility into which the reactor could be easily integrated.

Roy Lipski, CEO of Oxford Catalysts Group said:

“This is a true milestone for the Group and our client. We’re excited to prove the capabilities of our technology at this commercially significant scale, and are confident that it will meet our customer’s needs and facilitate their ambitious plans for widespread commercial synthetic fuels production.”

- Ends -

http://www.velocys.com/financial/fa/ocgfa20120524.php

Also, there is speculation that this ongoing trial of the FT unit may be the reason that LNC hasn't finalised the agreement with GCL. LNC may wish to obtain more certainty on the production volumes of the unit (trial of 3 to 6 months) before finalising the raft of legal contracts with GCL.

While the delay in finalising the GCL deal is frustrating for S/Hs, hopefully the pot will be more golden at the end of the rainbow.    holder


----------



## basilio

Nice movement on LNC shares today.  Currently up 16% .

Maybe we are getting close to an announcement on the GCL deal?  And perhaps Mickels research regarding the GTL operation is close to being confirmed ? Would be great to see some big news soon.


----------



## johnpw

Is now a good time to invest in LNC? With the BPD projections the stock looks to be undervalued. Anyone know why the CFO left or if they are close with the China deal?


----------



## basilio

Is it a good time to invest in LNC? Same question has been asked all the way from $2.20 to 50c. Always lots of good reasons to say it was undervalued and a good thing.

On paper the current price is very appealing. Oil production seems to be on track. The Chinese GCL deal seems imminent *.  Cash flow has been guaranteed for a further 3 years with extension of financing package and so on.

Trouble is most investors have been repeatedly burned in the past 2 years with imminent deals that havn't come through. On paper LNC should be a whale. But it isn't. Investors have been waiting since 2006  to see some commercial action on the CTG and GTL front after all the trials, technology improvements, flights across Australia etc. 

One piece of the puzzle escapes me. For years Peter Bond has talked of the capacity of LNC to produce high quality diesal at $30 a barrel and sell it for $100 plus. If the technology has been proven and the figures are still right what exactly is holding up the process ? I guess the Chinese deal is intended to be the commercial proving ground for this process. Lets see it fly.


----------



## ColB

basilio said:


> Is it a good time to invest in LNC? Same question has been asked all the way from $2.20 to 50c. Always lots of good reasons to say it was undervalued and a good thing.
> 
> On paper the current price is very appealing. Oil production seems to be on track. The Chinese GCL deal seems imminent *.  Cash flow has been guaranteed for a further 3 years with extension of financing package and so on.
> 
> Trouble is most investors have been repeatedly burned in the past 2 years with imminent deals that havn't come through. On paper LNC should be a whale. But it isn't. Investors have been waiting since 2006  to see some commercial action on the CTG and GTL front after all the trials, technology improvements, flights across Australia etc.
> 
> *One piece of the puzzle escapes me. For years Peter Bond has talked of the capacity of LNC to produce high quality diesal at $30 a barrel and sell it for $100 plus.* If the technology has been proven and the figures are still right what exactly is holding up the process ? I guess the Chinese deal is intended to be the commercial proving ground for this process. Lets see it fly.




Bas,  I think that piece of the puzzle is the astronomical costs [$Millions] involved in setting up a GTL plant before they sell even one barrel of diesel for their $50-70 dollar profit


----------



## Smurf1976

This sounds awfully familiar to most other "alternative fuel" ideas. They may well be profitable, but he sheer cost of getting them up and running in the first place is prohibitive for most companies.


----------



## Mickel

ColB said:


> Bas,  I think that piece of the puzzle is the astronomical costs [$Millions] involved in setting up a GTL plant before they sell even one barrel of diesel for their $50-70 dollar profit




Col and Bas
On the Velocys website (refer my post 3 Aug 12) under "Investors" you can request an analyst report from Edison Investment Research. In their Report of 16 May 2011 they mention costings for their micro-channel GTL plants.

For a 2500 bopd plant they are quoting income for Velocys of $10M upfront license fee  and $1.4M cost of replacing  the catalysts every 2 years. It appears that the $10M covers the cost of construction of the GTL plant. However, it would appear the associated plant connecting the gas would be an additional expense.While the sums quoted are 15 months old any increase should be marginal.

So for approx $120M they may have a 25,000bopd GTL plant, which is a fraction of their estimates of 18 months/2 years ago($800M to $1B for 20,000bopd). LNC already have a 25bopd GTL plant from Velocys from which they have been producing and testing since 24 May 2012.

Hopefully, the Chinese deal will be signed soon and the joint venture can place orders for the Velocys plant.

LT Holder


----------



## basilio

Mickel thanks for your  figures on  a Velocys GTL plant.

I'd love to believe it  but somehow I just don't think it is "right". $10m to build a 2500bopd GTL plant seems absurdly cheap. Simply speaking LNC has easily had or could borrow $10m which would then produce approximately $7.5 m gross a month (2500 x $100 p/b x 30 days) . If that was the case they would be totally nuts not to jump in  screaming!

I think we are missing something here.  I would be keen to see what it is. Any thoughts ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Mickel thanks for your  figures on  a Velocys GTL plant.
> 
> I'd love to believe it  but somehow I just don't think it is "right". $10m to build a 2500bopd GTL plant seems absurdly cheap. Simply speaking LNC has easily had or could borrow $10m which would then produce approximately $7.5 m gross a month (2500 x $100 p/b x 30 days) . If that was the case they would be totally nuts not to jump in  screaming!
> 
> I think we are missing something here.  I would be keen to see what it is. Any thoughts ?




Bas
While I can't verify those cost details and they may only for the reactor itself (and not the associated plant), I can explain why LNC hasn't "jumped in screaming" as you put it before.

1. To date LNC hasn't been able to start up commercial operations at Chinchilla because of State Govt restrictions. Hopefully this will change in the short term with the new LNP Government. Their big hope in Sth Aust for start up UCG and subsequent GTL (in Walloway Basin) is currently considered unsuitable for UCG because of  possible subsidence (LNC's term being "under technical review").

2. The Velocys GTL unit is new technology because of its microprocessing operation, and has only just come on the market. LNC has bought the 1st  commercial unit in Jan 2012. This is why the current trial at Chinchilla with the Velocys 25bopd unit is crucial to their ongoing plans, particularily in China (Inner Mongolia). Refer here for explanation of Microchannel Reactors including photos-

http://www.velocys.com/ocge02.php

3. For reference I quote the Velocys announcement of 24/5/12 below-

"24th May 2012

Successful Start-up of Commercial Scale FT Reactor

Oxford Catalysts Group PLC, the leading technology innovator for synthetic fuels production, is pleased to announce the successful start-up of a commercial scale Fischer-Tropsch (“FT”) reactor at a client facility, with performance matching expectations.

This is the Group’s first ever start-up of a commercial scale FT unit (with a nominal capacity of over 25 bpd). It is being operated by an integrated energy company, at their facility, to provide detailed engineering information for the design of commercial synthetic fuels plants. Construction and operation of such medium scale modular facilities at sites around the world is a central part of the customer’s strategy. The reactor is expected to operate for three to six months.

The Group announced the sale of this reactor on 9th January 2012. The short time from sale to start-up was a result of close collaboration between the Group and its client, as well as the client having an existing facility into which the reactor could be easily integrated.

Roy Lipski, CEO of Oxford Catalysts Group said:

“This is a true milestone for the Group and our client. We’re excited to prove the capabilities of our technology at this commercially significant scale, and are confident that it will meet our customer’s needs and facilitate their ambitious plans for widespread commercial synthetic fuels production.”

- Ends -
http://www.velocys.com/financial/fa/ocgfa20120524.php


----------



## Mickel

Further information on the Velocys GTL plant-

Microchannel reactors hold the promise of improved productivity and cost effectiveness at scales far smaller than what is possible with conventional technology. However, before they are widely accepted many operational issues need to be addressed, including commercial methods for loading and unloading catalyst. This challenge was accepted by Mourik, a worldwide leader in catalyst handling, that worked closely with Velocys Inc. to develop equipment and methods that were used to successfully load a commercial scale microchannel Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reactor.
On the surface conventional tubular reactors, such as the 1,200-ton FT reactors in Shell’s Pearl plant in Qatar, may seem to have little in common with microchannel reactors developed by Velocys, a member of Oxford Catalysts Group. But what the two have in common is that both are essentially fixed bed systems ”” one with thousands of 30-feetlong (10 meters), one-inch tubes and the other with thousands of passages with *far smaller dimensions and lengths (2 feet or 60 centimeters). *Mourik possesses deep experience with loading catalyst in tubular reactors ”” and this explains why Shell, Velocys and many others turned to it for catalyst handling solutions.
In order to achieve maximum productivity, catalyst must be loaded uniformly throughout a reactor. The aim is to achieve the same pressure drop ”” a measure of packing density ”” in each tube or bank of microchannels. 

Although in practice it is not possible to achieve perfect uniformity, Mourik’s technology and experience has allowed it to achieve loadings close to this ideal specification in reactors containing up to 30,000 tubes, but could it be done in tens of thousands of microchannels? Loading catalyst into microchannel reactors poses new challenges. While catalyst particles used in tubular reactors are pellets, with diameters about one-eighth to one-quarter inches (3 to 6 millimeters), the catalyst for microchannels is a powder, with 200-500 micron grain sizes. Loading powdered catalyst into thousands of microchannels in each reactor and ensuring each is filled to the same volume required a novel solution. To accomplish this, Mourik modified commercially available equipment and with Velocys developed an innovative catalyst loading procedure.
The resulting approach included a novel apparatus, with a built-in source of vibration. A mechanism feeds catalyst into all the microchannels at once, then the reactor is vibrated to ensure as much catalyst as possible is packed into each channel. Afterward, relatively standard methods were used to measure catalyst volumes and pressure drops to verify that the reactor is uniformly loaded. At the end of life, a similar method is used to remove the catalyst.
“We are very pleased with the equipment and methods developed by Mourik as well as the catalyst loading they achieved,” said Dave Kilanowski, senior project leader of Velocys. “As is the case with any new procedure, there are still improvements to be made, but we are confident that we are working with the right partner to figure these out.” For more information about Mourik LP, visit www.mourik-usa.com or call(281) 479-4449. For more informationabout Velocys Inc., visit www.velocys.com or call (614) 733-3300. •

http://www.velocys.com/press/egs/BIC_March_2012_Velocys.pdf


----------



## basilio

Mickel thanks for your insight and research.

I suppose to summarise the Velocys microchannel reactors look promising but are not yet commercially complete.

I have to say  still think a $10m plant producing 2500 BOPD seems too cheap - but I agree there may well be other ancillary equipment that is not included in the capex. But in any case the first plant in China will have the CAPEX paid by GCL

Still leaves us wondering when the deal with GCL will be signed off.


----------



## Mr McGee

basilio said:


> Still leaves us wondering when the deal with GCL will be signed off.




Well, my thoughts are that November 23rd is the six month date of the in-line test for the FT reactor at Lincs GTL plant. The AGM is on the 29th of Nov. So you would have to think that late November sounds good if you subscribe to the theory that it’s the tech holding things up.


----------



## Mickel

More good news from AFC Energy-

Latest Independent Technology Review Highlights Progress at AFC

September 10, 2012

The key highlights identified in the report reiterate AFC Energy’s own announcements on progress, stating that AFC Energy has:

 •Completed its Beta cartridge test programmes at Dunsfold and Bitterfeld;
 •Completed development of the Beta+ cartridge technology;
 •Established three operational demonstration systems based on the Beta+ technology;
 •Created a dedicated production facility and a team that has already produced cartridges that are currently under long-term test;
 •Developed these systems to the point at which they can be interrogated and operated (started/stopped) with ease, even from a remote location;
 •Supported successful operation of three Beta+ systems simultaneously;
 •Run the Beta+ demonstration systems for a combined total of several thousand hours; and
 •Continued to build a very strong relationship with its first key customer, AkzoNobel

http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...technology-review-highlights-progress-at-afc/

Hopefully LNC will explain their plans with AFC Energy at the forthcoming AGM.


----------



## basilio

The news from AFC is very good.  I keep wondering how/when/where LNC is going to integrate its UCG capacity to use this technology. They havn't really given any indication of their intentions in this area.

Of course another possibility is that AFC takes off and LNC goes along for the ride with its 12% stake.


----------



## basilio

Some big movement in LNC today.  Almost 6m shares changing hands and currently  12% increase in SP.

One piece of significant news was the opening of the  first AFC fuel cell production line. LNC has 12% of AFC and would be one of  partners in using the fuel cells for CO2 free production of electricity from its UCG  technology

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L&display=news&it=le


----------



## Mickel

I was overseas at the time of the 2011 AGM and only caught up with the video of it that was posted on the LNC site.

I have now learned that the BRR recording below of the AGM has a link to the slides in the bottom left hand corner "Download Slides (5.3 mb)". It has 53 slides- not 38 on the LNC site- and the last 15 slides reveal the Velocys and AFR plans by LNC. Not sure why they wern't included on the LNC site (apparently the audio was also cut short), perhaps it was meant to be confidential at that time (and remain confidential stil today).

The slide on page 46 is very interesting as it outlines plans by LNC to combine both the Velocys GTL plant with the AFC unit to produce both power and diesel/jet fuel from UCG. Also mentioned is PowerHouse Energy in which LNC has a 10 % stake.

Hopefully LNC will reveal all before the 2012 AGM.


http://www.brrmedia.com/event/frame/89774


----------



## basilio

While it is only one part of LNCs  interest the current movement in AFC Fuel Cells deserves  a focus.

Latest news is that the Russian Billionaire  Roman Abramovich has bought a 15% stake in the company as it prepares to begin a range  of commercialization opportunities. This technology fits neatly into LNCs UCG plans and we should expect that at least one of the developments will be with LNC if only to demonstrate the capacities of the system.

In particular it would be an excellent candidate for the clean energy fund established by the current government.

AFC shares have jumped sharply and they now have sufficient cash to see them through the first commercial  installations.

The AFC fuel cell techology could well be Microsoft in a garage.  It is very cheap and within a couple of years will be directly cost competitive with traditional  coal fired power stations  - without the pollution.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/07f0d1be-13b7-11e2-9ac6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz292Wum1iG


----------



## basilio

It's very interesting to see what is happening with AFC energy at the moment.

Only 2 weeks ago  the  Russian Billionaire Roman Abramovich bought a 15% stake in AFC at 26p a share. * The current SP is now over 50p and still climbing.  *The current AFC shareprice is now higher than LNC's which, when it bought its interest a couple of years ago was seen as the big international company becoming involved in a small   technology start up company.

From all indications there should be an imminent announcement from AFC about the first commercial sales of its fuel cells. They have been successfully operating for over 6 months now at AkzoNobel. In that time the technology has been upgraded and small problems have been addressed. The initial production plant has been opened. One would fervently hope that a similar trial was running at LNC's operation in Chinchilla.

At some stage I believe the success of AFC's fuel cell and the opportunity for LNC to commercialize it has to come to the attention of analysts.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> It's very interesting to see what is happening with AFC energy at the moment.
> 
> Only 2 weeks ago  the  Russian Billionaire Roman Abramovich bought a 15% stake in AFC at 26p a share. * The current SP is now over 50p and still climbing.  *The current AFC shareprice is now higher than LNC's which, when it bought its interest a couple of years ago was seen as the big international company becoming involved in a small   technology start up company.
> 
> From all indications there should be an imminent announcement from AFC about the first commercial sales of its fuel cells. They have been successfully operating for over 6 months now at AkzoNobel. In that time the technology has been upgraded and small problems have been addressed. The initial production plant has been opened. One would fervently hope that a similar trial was running at LNC's operation in Chinchilla.
> 
> At some stage I believe the success of AFC's fuel cell and the opportunity for LNC to commercialize it has to come to the attention of analysts.



I wonder when AFC will make an offer for either Linc energy, or Chelsea football club 
On a serious note, Linc seems to be going nowhere fast. 
I'm wondering if the SP will head south from here as coal prices decrease.
If the SP hits 50c, I will consider getting back in.
Good luck with AFC and Linc Basilo.


----------



## Rainbow54

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy Commitment*

Someone needs to ask Pete what he has done with EHS issues in Chinchilla and US Oil and Gas?  I would be more worried about major environmental issues and Regulators than BP if I were owning the US properties.  That is a train wreck and the management team there is inadequate especially when it comes to personnel and compliance.  By the way, what ever happened to their CFO and their GM of EHS in Brisbane?  Poof, they are gone.  Maybe they knew too much.


----------



## dogeatdog

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy Commitment*



Rainbow54 said:


> Someone needs to ask Pete what he has done with EHS issues in Chinchilla and US Oil and Gas?  I would be more worried about major environmental issues and Regulators than BP if I were owning the US properties.  That is a train wreck and the management team there is inadequate especially when it comes to personnel and compliance.  By the way, what ever happened to their CFO and their GM of EHS in Brisbane?  Poof, they are gone.  Maybe they knew too much.



Hello rainbow. You sound as if you have some grievances???? Care to share, or am I reading too much into your post? 

(Currently not a LNC share holder)


----------



## awg

One thing I can say for sure...that is I have found it unprofitable to maintain investments in companies where the management fails to meet announced expectations.

If this happens TWICE I usually sell. 

So you can only imagine how long ago I sold LNC.


----------



## Rainbow54

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy Commitment*



dogeatdog said:


> Hello rainbow. You sound as if you have some grievances???? Care to share, or am I reading too much into your post?
> 
> (Currently not a LNC share holder)




I think there is a lot of unclear issues regarding the acquisition on the gulf coast.  Many employees have grievances and legitimate EHS concerns that are being ignored.  Look into TNRCC and OSHA complaints dating back to ERG.  linc assumed those issues.m The company is under the watchful eye of several regulators related to permitting issues as well as ancient equipment that is not receiving attention.  As for bpd, don't be fooled. They have contractors that are costing them far more than they are bringing out of the ground.  As for Alaska, I don't get it at all.  How is funding this office profitable.  Moat is a great unknown or others would have been all over it.  

I also question this Wyoming UCG project which has been proposed for years now with continual excuses related to permit approvals.  Perhaps the Sierra club has had an impact or the wrong guy is running the show up there.  Regardless Wyoming politics are not the same as Queensland.  They have zero qualified staff to manage HR, EHS, Finance, and Land services in the US.  Laid off most of the Denver office and are leasing the lavish leases they signed in the heart of Denver.  I also heard they made a huge lease commitment in Houston and Baton Rouge which has since been closed.  I am a US investor who was sold a bill of goods and cannot let go of my painful losses.  Diesel dash is a joke.  UCG in the US is a farce with this crew.  I hear they have only lawyers on board in Denver and the Houston office is being led by a couple of cronies with no ability to manage a team.

I am afraid Pete's ego is over the top.  Only the best offices worldwide but no money coming in to support.  This results in places like Casper losing great people.  Schofield failed in the US so they shipped him to SAPEX?  China is another drawn out joke.  I just wish he would take his ego and money and move on.  Who is Ken Dark and what qualifies him to be a leader?  Where is a US President?  Rohner left as CFO very quietly and Chinchilla continues this commercial pipe dream.   Get out now if you are in.


----------



## dogeatdog

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy Commitment*



Rainbow54 said:


> I think there is a lot of unclear issues regarding the acquisition on the gulf coast.  Many employees have grievances and legitimate EHS concerns that are being ignored.  Look into TNRCC and OSHA complaints dating back to ERG.  linc assumed those issues.m The company is under the watchful eye of several regulators related to permitting issues as well as ancient equipment that is not receiving attention.  As for bpd, don't be fooled. They have contractors that are costing them far more than they are bringing out of the ground.  As for Alaska, I don't get it at all.  How is funding this office profitable.  Moat is a great unknown or others would have been all over it.
> 
> I also question this Wyoming UCG project which has been proposed for years now with continual excuses related to permit approvals.  Perhaps the Sierra club has had an impact or the wrong guy is running the show up there.  Regardless Wyoming politics are not the same as Queensland.  They have zero qualified staff to manage HR, EHS, Finance, and Land services in the US.  Laid off most of the Denver office and are leasing the lavish leases they signed in the heart of Denver.  I also heard they made a huge lease commitment in Houston and Baton Rouge which has since been closed.  I am a US investor who was sold a bill of goods and cannot let go of my painful losses.  Diesel dash is a joke.  UCG in the US is a farce with this crew.  I hear they have only lawyers on board in Denver and the Houston office is being led by a couple of cronies with no ability to manage a team.
> 
> I am afraid Pete's ego is over the top.  Only the best offices worldwide but no money coming in to support.  This results in places like Casper losing great people.  Schofield failed in the US so they shipped him to SAPEX?  China is another drawn out joke.  I just wish he would take his ego and money and move on.  Who is Ken Dark and what qualifies him to be a leader?  Where is a US President?  Rohner left as CFO very quietly and Chinchilla continues this commercial pipe dream.   Get out now if you are in.




Hello Rainbow, and thank you for your comments.

I've made a tidy profit from owning Linc shares in the past, including a sizable dividend payout following the Adani deal, so I'm grateful of what PB/Linc have achieved historically.
Of course, the past is the past, and I've concluded that PB is "almost" a master of spin.

I currently have no vested interest, but still believe the company has potential. 
The investment in UK based AFC appears to be a wise one, and should benefit Linc's desire to produce "clean" energy once both AFC's fuel cell, and LNC's technologies have been perfected.

Linc's foray into O & G leaves me mystified to be honest.

Rainbow... your obviously disgruntled, but are you able to display links or factual evidence regarding your allegations mentioned above? I am genuinely interested in what you have highlighted.


----------



## johnpw

Looks like the stock is really tanking. Any news from LNC on what's going on or is this still fallout / market reaction to the USD265 million Bond Issue? The AGM this year is going to be interesting.


----------



## dogeatdog

johnpw said:


> Looks like the stock is really tanking. Any news from LNC on what's going on or is this still fallout / market reaction to the USD265 million Bond Issue? The AGM this year is going to be interesting.




I'm in no doubt MR Bond, not James Bond, will come up with some wonderful spin.
I'll will be tempted however, to buy in around 50c and hold.


----------



## basilio

That September report is disappointing.  It's  seems clear that the intentions to get to 6000 BPD oil production by the end of the year are  fanciful. There is just too much ground to be made up in the next couple of months for that to happen.

A significant shortfall there means  LNC will not be making enough coin from their oil production to break  even by June 2013.  More negative financing.

Six months after the initial announcement there is still no certainty about the GCL deal.  Again with no money coming in finances will be tight.

Clearly there are lots of projects  that "might" be sold, "could" be developed.  But these stories have been running for four years now and we have only see one major tick -  the Adani coal sale. 

Its not good enough.


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> That September report is disappointing.  It's  seems clear that the intentions to get to 6000 BPD oil production by the end of the year are  fanciful. There is just too much ground to be made up in the next couple of months for that to happen.
> 
> A significant shortfall there means  LNC will not be making enough coin from their oil production to break  even by June 2013.  More negative financing.
> 
> Six months after the initial announcement there is still no certainty about the GCL deal.  Again with no money coming in finances will be tight.
> 
> Clearly there are lots of projects  that "might" be sold, "could" be developed.  But these stories have been running for four years now and we have only see one major tick -  the Adani coal sale.
> 
> Its not good enough.



Well said Basilio.
Having just browsed the latest Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, it paints a picture of optimism, typical of PB. 
It points to a great deal of information regarding projects, happening by the end of 2012, in addition to other projects being way out there in the future.
With the cash flow burn at current levels, I fear the SP will continue to head south. 
This company has to be a speculative buy, but not for the faint hearted.

(Currently not a share holder)


----------



## Smurf1976

So far as I'm concerned this company is too focused on newsletters, promotional stunts and so on and not sufficiently focused on actually producing a product they can sell (that is, bringing some money in).

Remember the "Diesel Dash"? It made a nice point yes, but what was the commercial point of it really? Why promote that your fuel works, when you don't actually have any fuel available to sell? The only point I can see is to draw attention to the company itself and thus encourage investors to buy shares. It's not as though anyone who saw the vehicle has the opportunity to purchase the product themselves.

Wouldn't it make more sense that at this scale of operation they just sell any diesel etc they make to someone like BP, Caltex, Shell or whoever as a bulk product and not worry about the marketing? I know that the major oil companies have certainly agreed to take the production of minor fuel producers in the past and blend it with their own stock. So far as technical requirements are concerned, obviously they'd insist on proper lab testing but they do that with the output of their own refineries anyway so it's no big deal.

Same with the raw syngas from UCG. If it were me, I'd start by just selling the stuff "as is" as fuel to power stations or a large factory etc for which it is quite suitable. That would get cash coming in. Worry about the liquids production and/or building their own power stations later. For the moment, just be the upstream supplier of an alternative fuel and sell it "as is" to whoever you can find to buy it.

I can assure you that management of thermal power stations (those that run on coal, gas or oil and which account for 90% or so of all power generated in Australia) are always willing to talk to anyone who suggests the possibility of cheaper fuel since fuel is by far their largest operating expense. 

I like the technology this company has that is for sure. But as much as I like the idea, I just don't trust that management is sufficiently focused on running the business as such.


----------



## basilio

Ok .  It's midnight on Cup Day and my nags are still trying to find the finish line....

So why not spin another Linc Energy Story....

It seems that the Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich has jetted into *Brisbane* and Perth last week on a mystery business trip.

I reckon... that he intends to jump into Linc Energy and take a piece of the action with Peter Bond. He has had a long look at the UCG technology that LNC now owns (remembering that the first plant is in Russia) and can see how he can turn Russian coal into syn gas, clean electricity and clean diesel fuel.

Remember that he has just bought 15% of AFC in UK which is the pivotal piece of technology between UCG and clean low cost, no CO2 electricty.

And Peter Bond and Linc badly need to pull a very big bunny out of the hat.

And we all lived happily ever after.

__________________________________________________________________________________

By the way LNC has "jumped" 10% from Friday morning....

http://www.theage.com.au/national/abramovichs-plane-spotted-in-australia-20121106-28w15.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...movich-boosts-fuel-cell-group-AFC-Energy.html


----------



## basilio

> *Linc Energy in talks with billionaire Abramovich:
> *
> Published 6:12 AM, 8 Nov 2012 Last update 6:12 AM, 8 Nov 2012
> 
> Queensland-based resource company Linc Energy may be reading to ink (?) an investment deal with one of the world's wealthiest investors, Roman Abramovich, following a brief visit to Australia last weekend that saw Mr Abramovich tour Linc's coal gasification facilities after dinner with Linc Energy chief executive Peter Bond, according to The Australian Financial Review.
> 
> Talks between the two of fuelled speculation that Mr Abramovich ”” who made his fortune in the oil industry in the 1990s and currently owns Chelsea Football Club ”” may be planning to invest in Australia's resources sector or to use Linc's technology in Russia, the newspaper reported




1 + 1 = 2 . ...

This should start up a flurry of interest in LNC.  Roman Abramaovich is systematically investing in all the industries associated with  fuel cells and  syngas production.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...re-Abramovich-r-pd20121107-ZTPU7?OpenDocument


----------



## Mickel

The full AFR article is viewable here without being a subscriber-

http://boss.afr.com.au/p/national/abramovich_ponders_deal_with_linc_Uz3QmX8qyNwI5zYxBMKt7L


----------



## Mickel

More good news from AFC Energy-

http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...rd-for-uks-largest-fuel-cell-energy-facility/


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Ok .  It's midnight on Cup Day and my nags are still trying to find the finish line....
> 
> So why not spin another Linc Energy Story....
> 
> It seems that the Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich has jetted into *Brisbane* and Perth last week on a mystery business trip.
> 
> I reckon... that he intends to jump into Linc Energy and take a piece of the action with Peter Bond. He has had a long look at the UCG technology that LNC now owns (remembering that the first plant is in Russia) and can see how he can turn Russian coal into syn gas, clean electricity and clean diesel fuel.
> 
> Remember that he has just bought 15% of AFC in UK which is the pivotal piece of technology between UCG and clean low cost, no CO2 electricty.
> 
> And Peter Bond and Linc badly need to pull a very big bunny out of the hat.
> 
> And we all lived happily ever after.
> 
> __________________________________________________________________________________
> 
> By the way LNC has "jumped" 10% from Friday morning....
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/national/abramovichs-plane-spotted-in-australia-20121106-28w15.html
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...movich-boosts-fuel-cell-group-AFC-Energy.html




Your theory/story is a good one basilio.
It now makes it a tough call if or not to buy a parcel "long" for near term speculation alone.
MR A appears to create a following much like MR Soros.

(Non LNC share holder)


----------



## verce

dogeatdog said:


> Your theory/story is a good one basilio.
> It now makes it a tough call if or not to buy a parcel "long" for near term speculation alone.
> MR A appears to create a following much like MR Soros.
> 
> (Non LNC share holder)




Posted this elsewhere: 

Put it this way - when you are as rich as he is, money is no longer the most valuable commodity in the world.

His most valuable commodity is time.

He would not waste his -extremely- valuable time flying to Brisbane to have dinner with Peter Bond just on a whim.

He came here to stitch up a UCG deal with Linc Energy and Russia (Russia has the second largest coal reserves in the world amounting to 19% of the world's total) or he's going to take a 10% stake in Linc Energy.

He definitely came here for something. Mark my words.


----------



## dogeatdog

verce said:


> Posted this elsewhere:
> 
> Put it this way - when you are as rich as he is, money is no longer the most valuable commodity in the world.
> 
> His most valuable commodity is time.
> 
> He would not waste his -extremely- valuable time flying to Brisbane to have dinner with Peter Bond just on a whim.
> 
> He came here to stitch up a UCG deal with Linc Energy and Russia (Russia has the second largest coal reserves in the world amounting to 19% of the world's total) or he's going to take a 10% stake in Linc Energy.
> 
> He definitely came here for something. Mark my words.



Hello Vercengetrix. Why 10%?


----------



## dogeatdog

Umiat oil field update.   12th Nov.

http://www.itnews.it/news/2012/1112000003049/linc-energy-limited-asx-lnc-umiat-oil-field-update.html

(Not a LNC share holder)


----------



## dogeatdog

I'm not sure if this article has been highlighted on this thread before....

www.afr.com/p/opinion/barcap_to_sell_linc_shale_gas_assets_RKO7qBka35HGEP2TuOK3JJ


----------



## basilio

dogeatdog said:


> I'm not sure if this article has been highlighted on this thread before....
> 
> www.afr.com/p/opinion/barcap_to_sell_linc_shale_gas_assets_RKO7qBka35HGEP2TuOK3JJ




Has been put on the table by Peter Bond earlier this year.

I don't think there has been any indication to date of how cost effective it will be to exploit this resource. Could be a real Pig in a poke.

I remember telephone book figures for the total resources disovered but getting it and making dollar may be something completely different.

Umait looks more interesting however.


----------



## Mickel

Interesting article in latest BRW Magazine on PB and LNC-

http://www.brw.com.au/p/entrepreneurs/licence_to_drill_peter_bond_is_on_GpkJ8AxLPFCilPOV4tht0I


----------



## dogeatdog

Good news for Linc going forward.

Gautam Adani defies trend with $10bn Galilee project
BY: AMANDA HODGE, SOUTH ASIA CORRESPONDENT From: The Australian December 03, 2012 12:00AM


AUSTRALIA'S largest Indian investor Adani Group will push ahead with its $10 billion Carmichael Coal mine, rail and port project in central Queensland, defying the commodities slowdown that has clipped the ambitions of many Australian miners.

Chairman Gautam Adani announced yesterday his company had completed exploration in a record nine months and intended to export to India its first coal shipment from the mine by January 2016, taking advantage of the resources industry slowdown that has freed up manpower to begin construction work.

(Currently not an LNC share holder)


----------



## Mickel

Good news from latest announcement-

LNC have "Term Sheet" with Exxaro Resources for joint development  of UCG  projects in sub-saharan Africa.
Exxaro are 2nd largest  coal producer in Africa and will pay $3M fee within 30 days and subsequent licence fee and royalties.
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/do...nZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw

Good boost to S/P with it currently up 3c to 72c.

L/T Holder


----------



## basilio

Adanis progress to building its mega coal mine is excellent news for LNC. At the very least it firms up the value of LNCs 20 year royalty deal with Adani.  It's nominal value would be around $2.B  (20 x 100m per year plus inflation) .  If  the deal  was sold earlier to another institution the figure would be far less but surely around the $500-600m mark.

Current market value for *all of LNC *is $366 m


----------



## StevieY

Wonder if anything came out of that dinner Peter Bond had with Roman Abramovich.


----------



## basilio

LNC has released an update on the Adani coal project.  

Peter Bond is making sure the market realises LNC has a lot of skin in this game and that the $100 m plus royalties from the coal sales every year are not chicken feed *and will go straight to the bottom line*. That could conceivably be worth 40c a year dividends to ordinary shareholders .  (and yes pigs might fly as well...)

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf


----------



## skc

basilio said:


> LNC has released an update on the Adani coal project.
> 
> Peter Bond is making sure the market realises LNC has a lot of skin in this game and that the $100 m plus royalties from the coal sales every year are not chicken feed *and will go straight to the bottom line*. That could conceivably be worth 40c a year dividends to ordinary shareholders .  (and yes pigs might fly as well...)
> 
> http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf




The chart is looking promising. The 18 month down trend is all but finished.

82c resistance being tested yesterday and today.

It looks poised for a breakout.

Apologies don't have time to post a chart.


----------



## basilio

basilio said:


> LNC has released an update on the Adani coal project.
> 
> Peter Bond is making sure the market realises LNC has a lot of skin in this game and that the $100 m plus royalties from the coal sales every year are not chicken feed *and will go straight to the bottom line*. That could conceivably be worth 40c a year dividends to ordinary shareholders .  (and yes pigs might fly as well...)
> 
> http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf




Where did I get that 40c dividend from ? Quite wrong. $100m across 500m shares is worth 20c a share all up.  But there would still be case for a 10c a share dividend. 

Its interesting however how energy and mining companies are loath to pay dividends to shareholders.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Where did I get that 40c dividend from ? Quite wrong. $100m across 500m shares is worth 20c a share all up.  But there would still be case for a 10c a share dividend.
> 
> Its interesting however how energy and mining companies are loath to pay dividends to shareholders.




True Bas. Particularily when PB has so many projects to fund. I imagine when considering to sell the royalty, he would take into account the taxation on the sale. It may be a better decision to hold onto it for a few years. In that case a 5c dividend per year would be acceptable.

If the Adani plans work out and they are exporting 60MT in 2022, the royalty is likely to be around $150M with CPI inflation. (ie 30c per share).


----------



## essay

Can someone tell me if the US listed LNCGY follows our lead or trades ahead of LNC indicating the next day's moves?


----------



## Porper

skc said:


> The chart is looking promising. The 18 month down trend is all but finished.
> 
> 82c resistance being tested yesterday and today.
> 
> It looks poised for a breakout.
> 
> Apologies don't have time to post a chart.




Chart attached (weekly) shows plenty of stumbling blocks. Resistance hit yesterday and major resistance around $1.00 needs to be overcome before jumping with joy i.m.o.


----------



## skc

Porper said:


> Chart attached (weekly) shows plenty of stumbling blocks. Resistance hit yesterday and major resistance around $1.00 needs to be overcome before jumping with joy i.m.o.




Fair call but depends on your timeframe and the size of move you are trying to capture.

Resistance at $1 is still 25% above a breakout of 82c so easily a few R's in there.

LNC getting kicked out of ASX200 doesn't help, however.


----------



## Mickel

essay said:


> Can someone tell me if the US listed LNCGY follows our lead or trades ahead of LNC indicating the next day's moves?




Hi Essay

LNCGY trades in New York which is about 18 hours behind AEST. It is my understanding that their trades are balanced up in the following day's trade in Aus. I LNCGY equals 10 LNC shares.


----------



## dogeatdog

Interesting article relative to Linc energy.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/shareholdercide--diluted-to-death-20121207-2b1be.html

(Not a LNC share holder)


----------



## StevieY

LNC having a good day today after Friday's announcement. 

http://www.4-traders.com/LINC-ENERG...and-DTEK-Oil-Gas-Sign-UCG-Agreement-15580691/


----------



## Mickel

Great day for LNC with a rise of 7.5c to 88.5c on strong buying of 10.42 M shares.
An intraday peak of 93.5c was reached. Should be an interesting week.


Long term holder


----------



## Mickel

Another great start for LNC.

In less than 30 mins trading, volume of 4 M with prices from 94c to 99c.

Currently 98.5 c


L/T holder


----------



## StevieY

The ride up really only starts after we pass $1.00 isn't it as that seems to be the resistance level?


----------



## dogeatdog

Porper said:


> Chart attached (weekly) shows plenty of stumbling blocks. Resistance hit yesterday and major resistance around $1.00 needs to be overcome before jumping with joy i.m.o.




So now where for the SP?

Speeding ticket issued:  http://www.skynews.com.au/businessnews/article.aspx?id=825490

(Not a LNC share holder)


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> So now where for the SP?
> 
> Speeding ticket issued:  http://www.skynews.com.au/businessnews/article.aspx?id=825490
> 
> (Not a LNC share holder)




Hi Doggy

Some techies are saying there is very little resistance up to $1.50.  Some experienced traders are saying there appears to be new buying on a large scale (perhaps a certain Russian).

I'm a long term investor happy to see the S/P come back up closer to its true value ($1.80- $2 in my opinion).

The pre open today looks promising so far.

About time you hopped back on the wagon.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Hi Doggy
> 
> Some techies are saying there is very little resistance up to $1.50.  Some experienced traders are saying there appears to be new buying on a large scale (perhaps a certain Russian).
> 
> I'm a long term investor happy to see the S/P come back up closer to its true value ($1.80- $2 in my opinion).
> 
> The pre open today looks promising so far.
> 
> About time you hopped back on the wagon.




Hey Mickel. Taken a small position, and up 3% as I write. 
I hope all the recent hype comes to some form of fruition, and drives the SP close to the values you mention above.
Good luck sir.
(LNC Share holder)


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Hey Mickel. Taken a small position, and up 3% as I write.
> I hope all the recent hype comes to some form of fruition, and drives the SP close to the values you mention above.
> Good luck sir.
> (LNC Share holder)




Hi Doggy

Welcome back on board. Hope you made at least 10 % today.
A great ride it was today ! Up 25 % to $1.30 on turnover of 22 M shares.

I think that is a record turnover for LNC in a day.

Augurs well for a further rise tomorrow.

L/T Holder


----------



## PinguPingu

Big pullback to close the gap at 1.04, some resistance at 1.10 - wonder what it'll do next.


----------



## pixel

PinguPingu said:


> Big pullback to close the gap at 1.04, some resistance at 1.10 - wonder what it'll do next.




Massively Bearish Engulfing candle today; closed yesterday's gap-up. 
Could easily drop to 90c (1-year EMA)


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Hi Doggy
> 
> Welcome back on board. Hope you made at least 10 % today.
> A great ride it was today ! Up 25 % to $1.30 on turnover of 22 M shares.
> 
> I think that is a record turnover for LNC in a day.
> 
> Augurs well for a further rise tomorrow.
> 
> L/T Holder




Hey Mickel.
I'm stuck in the Netherlands at the moment, so watching the Aussie market's difficult time wise.
I woke up this morning, and the stop loss kicked in at A$1.10 so a meager 9% profit 
I'll be back in soon.
Good luck to all longs.


----------



## dogeatdog

Do Linc now receive a further slap on the wrist for the 20% slump in the SP?

SARAH-JANE TASKER From: The Australian December 13, 2012 12:00AM


UNDERGROUND coal gasification and mining company Linc Energy says it can't explain a significant surge in its share price, amid ongoing market speculation about billionaire Roman Abramovich's recent visit to its Australian operations.

Shares in the Brisbane-based company jumped 25 per cent yesterday to close at $1.30, continuing a strong run this week that earlier prompted a "speeding ticket" from the Australian Securities Exchange.

Fridays session could be interesting.


----------



## Mickel

Another wild ride so far today with low/highs of 96c/$1.155 on turnover of 6.9M shares

Currently $1.10 (up 6.5c today).

Where will it close ? Some say that a large buyer (Credit Swisse ?) may continue accumulating and push it to a range of $1.15- $1.20 while others are suggesting that the shorters are in control and it could drop to .88c - .98c.

Gross short sales for 13 Dec were 2,149,900
''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''12 Dec '''''''''''5,974,015

https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...lectionID=68&SortField=dInDate&SortOrder=Desc

The outstanding short sales reported are delayed by a few days.

For 7 Dec  33,144,000
For 6 Dec  35,001,950

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument

it is generally thought that, with the delay between the 2 stats and various strategies by the shorters, it is very difficult to predict what will happen in the immediate future without any positive announcements.


----------



## mr. jeff

look like today was a classic buying day,will be interesting to watch tomorrow for action.
What a strong and sudden move, lets see it hold now.


----------



## Mickel

2012 started off with the S/P around $1.12 and looks like finishing the year marginally ahead of that figure.
Currently up 1.5c at $1.175

This despite the combined actions of the bot traders and short sellers driving the price down to 46c on 30 July 12.

Hopefully with much good news to come in early 2013 (GCL deal, Qld Govt decision on UCG, Poland, Africa, Gulf Coast oil production, Ukraine, AFC, etc, etc ) the S/P will rise to over $2 and perhaps much higher.

Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.


----------



## EddieRobinson

Mickel said:


> 2012 started off with the S/P around $1.12 and looks like finishing the year marginally ahead of that figure.
> Currently up 1.5c at $1.175
> 
> This despite the combined actions of the bot traders and short sellers driving the price down to 46c on 30 July 12.
> 
> Hopefully with much good news to come in early 2013 (GCL deal, Qld Govt decision on UCG, Poland, Africa, Gulf Coast oil production, Ukraine, AFC, etc, etc ) the S/P will rise to over $2 and perhaps much higher.
> 
> Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.




Happy to share that wish with you. HNY


----------



## Tezzad

Just come across your group of devoted holders. Been here at this price when i first joined, held my breath on the way down and swallowed all I could at the bottom. Telling everyone who would listen. (My brother and I are very close now) My stake is looking very healthy now, I have a lot of confidence in the stock but I am a little miffed at the actions of the big boys and their games. Is there any action that the company can take to ward off the short termer's ie Those who hold now until Andi start paying royalties get a piece, those who swap in and out and profit on the way down miss out. This would dry up the shorts. Am interested in everyone's thoughts?


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> Is there any action that the company can take to ward off the short termer's ie Those who hold now until Andi start paying royalties get a piece, those who swap in and out and profit on the way down miss out. This would dry up the shorts. Am interested in everyone's thoughts?




Not sure I understand your question, Tezzad. Welcome  to ASF, by the way. Adani won't be producing until late 2015 at the earliest, so holding until then is not what I'd call a "short termer".

There are 2 types of traders that are causing problems for LNC long term holders and many other stocks. One type are shorting the stock- ie borrowing stock and selling it to drive the price down and then buying it at or near the bottom.

The other type have the so called "super computers"  linked to the ASX and can see buy and sell orders before anyone else (fractions of a second) and have complicated computer programs to buy and sell before anyone else. An Investment Bank could be part of both groups.

There has been discussion that the ASX is looking to restrict some activities by these groups (Alan Kohler has been advocating for the ASX to restrict some activities), but nothing is set in concrete yet.

As far as I'm aware, the company (LNC) can't restrict trading in their stock on market.

Let me know if this hasn't answered your question.


----------



## Tezzad

As far as I'm aware, the company (LNC) can't restrict trading in their stock on market.

I was thinking more along the lines of incentives for those share holders retaining their stock, knowing that when those royalties start flowing in there will be money in the kitty to pay them. Doesn't necessarily have to be dividends back to the shareholder, could be bonus shares, options that only become available after holding the stock for a certain period. If no one wants to sell because there is upside to holding, then it would be harder for the S/P to bounce around like it has been.


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> I was thinking more along the lines of incentives for those share holders retaining their stock, knowing that when those royalties start flowing in there will be money in the kitty to pay them. Doesn't necessarily have to be dividends back to the shareholder, could be bonus shares, options that only become available after holding the stock for a certain period. If no one wants to sell because there is upside to holding, then it would be harder for the S/P to bounce around like it has been.




I'm aware that with an IPO you can include all manner of incentives to hold stock, including options, bonus shares etc, but I'm not aware that a company can do anything similar after the IPO (Initial Public Offering).

Another point is that LNC MAY sell the royalty stream either before production starts or shortly after to fund their other projects, so the funds to pay dividends from the royalty stream may not be there in the future.

Of course with so much potential good news that could be announced at any time, by not holding you expose yourself to missing the boat or buying in at a much higher price.

I think some who could have bought in around 60c to 80c as recently as last November (ie six weeks ago) but didn't, are already regretting it.


----------



## Jonathan111

I wonder if we will hear any news regarding Velocys oxford catalysts testing soon as the 6 months testing would be complete..  Im sure we should hear about oil production targets and Umiat progress soon.

It seems the below audio was cut out from AGM 11.

_I'm pretty excited with this new tie up with Linc although i am slightly disappointed that we have had no RNS confirming a commercial relationship between the two parties. I have taken a few notes from the presentation (starting at 1.06 & 47 secs) which can be found below.

Regarding a small scale GTL facitlity.......

1) Goal to produce 5000 modular GTL (up to 10 per site)
 2) No-one else in this range (who could this be i wonder!)
 3) Suitable for unlocking stranded coal & gas
 4) Crack the CAPEX challenge by being modular & fabricated in Asia

They have embarked on a Pre-FEED study with an 'engineering contractor' in the US

Regarding the relationship with Velocys......

1) If i'm not mistaken there is a picture of a velocys FT reactor on this slide
 2) The unit produces 6-7 times what they are currently producing on site
 3) Unit procurred - delivery beginning 2012 followed by installation in Chinchilla Q2 2012
 4) Foundation based on a modular format
 5) Less than 2 years payback
 6) OPEX around $30 a barrel
 7) also targetting economic front end & back end complimentary additions

''made by a company called Velocys in US. We are working very closely with them and their partners as well"

''We intend to rapidly resolve this 5000 BPD facility starting right now. Infact it started a month ago!"
I'm an investor in all 3. LNC have an added bonus as they are ISAble if you are willing to dabble outside the LSE. The presentation as a whole is well worth watching as they are a fantastic company working with world leaders in the emerging cleantech industry. I'm glad to see that they are working with OCG - Linc are clearly impressed with the velocys reactor and OCG catalysts. Peter Bond talks about cracking the holy grail for energy and we are along for the ride.
Its a shame the market doesn't agree with us at the moment! 


also mention afc after 1hr 10mins



also have a listen to this from around 1h05 onwards - Linc clearly excited about their use of Velocys system: http://www.brr.com.au/event/frame/89774_


http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn:OCG.L&thread=9021456&it=le


----------



## Tezzad

Nice announcement today, lets see if this can get us up through 1.30 and hold for a while.


----------



## Jonathan111

Tezzad said:


> Nice announcement today, lets see if this can get us up through 1.30 and hold for a while.




Yes punched through 130, im thinking $1.45 - 1.50..


----------



## Mickel

S/P finished on its high for the day at $1.42 up 14c on turnover of 8.1 M .

The announcement confirming LNC had reached their oil production target by 31 Dec was very good news and surprised many despite both PB and Scott Broussard confirming at the AGM that they would meet the target.

This now puts LNC on a firmer financial footing and hopefully lessens the chance that the shorters will run amuck with the S/P in the future.

There should be much more good news (GCL, Qld Govt decision, Umiat ,Poland, Africa, Ukraine etc) in the pipeline  to keep the S/P heading north.

Hopefully the S/P surge will be more permanent this time.


----------



## Tezzad

If the shorter's make money on the way down  does that mean they lose money on the way up if it holds?


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> If the shorter's make money on the way down  does that mean they lose money on the way up if it holds?




In a straight forward situation where the Shorter borrowers stock to sell (at say $1.00) and thens holds this position until he finally buys for $1.30 to repay the stock, then yes, he loses.

However I believe that most shorters have a more complicated strategy and may be able to profit from dips in the S/P over a period of time.

The bottom line is that, if there is little negative news on a stock, then the likelyhood of frequent and sometimes large dips in the S/P is low, and shorting is more risky for shorters.


----------



## Mickel

More joy for LNC holders today with the S/P moving higher . Currently up 10c at $1.52 on 6.3 M turnover.
Yesterday the S/P powered ahead in the last hour of trading. Will it do the same today ??

Hope so !

Good times with much more good news to come.


----------



## Mickel

Finished the day near the high of the day ($1.565) at $1.555 on turnover of 8.2 M .

Some techies are saying that $1.70 is easily attained in the short trem.


----------



## Tezzad

WOOOOW. Would like to see another announcement come out just to put some icing on the cake.


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> WOOOOW. Would like to see another announcement come out just to put some icing on the cake.




Tezzad, there should be 3 or 4 positive announcements over the next 6 to 8 weeks. 

This is a radio interview with Peter Bond today regarding the latest oil results. He says "exciting time for Company over next 2 months". 

http://www.lincenergy.com/linc_energy_radio.php

Announcements regarding Umiat, Arckaringa, Teresa and possibly GCL, Poland, Africa, etc over the next 6-8 weeks should provide plenty of momentum for the S/P. 
L/T Holder


----------



## Mickel

Great start again for LNC today. Currently up 9.5 c at $1.65 on turnover of 1.5M .
Outstanding buyers are 1.9 M against sellers of approx .5M .

I can't understand why more posters are not commenting on this surging stock.

The recent announcement regarding achieving oil production targets has put LNC on a more firmer fiscal position and is causing a re rating of the stock.


----------



## basilio

Well there is certainly one giant sized rocket under LNC at the moment !! With the confirmation of 6000bpd oil production the US one would think the financial issues are at bay.

Given all the other developments coming into play LNC looks very underpriced.  It will be interesting to see when the next analysis comes out.

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

Heh  Mickel  . Just thinking the  same thing. (and grinding my teeth because I didn't readjust my portfolio in December. Oh well at least what i have is doing well.)


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Heh  Mickel  . Just thinking the  same thing. (and grinding my teeth because I didn't readjust my portfolio in December. Oh well at least what i have is doing well.)




Hi Bas

LNC was already a big part of my portfolio, but I bought some more at $0.80 on the way down. I now wish I had bought some more in December at around $0.80 .


----------



## Mickel

LNC now powering ahead. Up 21.5c to $1.77 on turnover of 6.6 M .

Some techies are saying $1.80 is the next resistance level.

WOW !! What a ride !

PS My only regret is that I didn't enter the Monthly competition again this month as I was away between Christmas and New Year. I was pipped at the post in Dec when LNC led for most of the month (gain of 69%).


----------



## basilio

Amazing how sentiment can change in few weeks. Also justifies Peter Bonds insistence on the basic value of LNC's assets and technology.

Now if the GCL deal comes through perhaps the $4.50 per share implied value of LNC shares will start to appear reasonable.


----------



## Tezzad

About 1.80 is what i thought LNC was good value. Have been here before  with FRG not going to  sell out at this point. would like it to it consolidate here fore a while and then power on with justified increases in line with increased asset valuation. here's cheers to all those who have stuck to there guns telling anyone who would listen.

L/T and sometimes suffering Share Holder.


----------



## Mickel

For the record in this thread, LNC finished yesterday at $1.80 up 24.5c on turnover of 11.69M shares.

What will happen today ?

Some techies are saying it will consolidate around $1.80 while others are suggesting a pullback after such a hard run up.

Me ? I'm hanging on for the ride, as in the short term I think it will pass resistance at $2 and reach $2.50 at least.


----------



## StevieY

Mickel said:


> Me ? I'm hanging on for the ride, as in the short term I think it will pass resistance at $2 and reach $2.50 at least.




I will be doing the same and hope you're right Mickel!


----------



## Mickel

Another great day for LNC !

Currently up 17c at $1.97 on turnover of 12 M.

It did reach a peak early in the day of $2.06.

If the pattern of the last few days is repeated, it will surge again in the last
trading hour. However having already hit a peak and then coming down, it may
hover around the $2 mark.

It would be good for the S/P to settle around this figure for a few days, to form
a base to defend the S/P, if sentiment (incl general market sentiment) turns 
negative.

Any comments ?


----------



## StevieY

Think we will have some profit takers and may see it close well off the highs. 

I'm holding (long term) on for the ride.


----------



## Mickel

So LNC finished at $1.96  on Fri on sales of 13.3 M shares. After touching $2.06 it dropped back to around $1.93 before rallying to the closing price.

With LNC performing so well lately, it's disappointing that so few posters are commenting. I can only surmise that many posters were badly burnt when the S/P plummented and have vowed not to touch LNC again.

Some techies are of the opinion that if LNC can finish above $2.00 there is very little resistance through to $2.50. Others are suggesting that the S/P will hover and consolidate just below $2 for a short time before moving ahead. However, any more good news (and there should be before 31 Jan) is most likely to propel LNC over the $2 mark very quickly.


----------



## skc

Mickel said:


> So LNC finished at $1.96  on Fri on sales of 13.3 M shares. After touching $2.06 it dropped back to around $1.93 before rallying to the closing price.
> 
> With LNC performing so well lately, it's disappointing that so few posters are commenting. I can only surmise that many posters were badly burnt when the S/P plummented and have vowed not to touch LNC again.
> 
> Some techies are of the opinion that if LNC can finish above $2.00 there is very little resistance through to $2.50. Others are suggesting that the S/P will hover and consolidate just below $2 for a short time before moving ahead. However, any more good news (and there should be before 31 Jan) is most likely to propel LNC over the $2 mark very quickly.




I haven't commented because my jaw is still on the floor. Having recently bought around 80c and sold for a 30c profit thinking I am awesome... I am too annoyed to even have it up on my screen.

I think LNC will still be a fantasic trading stock for the next few weeks, but the quarterly update will provide firm new direction one way or another.


----------



## Mickel

Well, the bubble certainly burst this morning. Trading between $1.715 and  $1.89 and currently at $1.78 on turnover of 4M shares.
Some opinion is that it will consolidate between $1.72 and $1.96 but if negative sentiment takes hold , it could fall to $1.29.

Some day traders are selling around $1.80 and buying in around $1.73.

I am holding and awaiting more good news which should be forthcoming in the next 2-3 weeks.


----------



## Tezzad

Would have been good for it to keep going. However I think we all know that at some point everyone was going to stop and take a breath. With all that has been going on more good news is only around the corner. I have always through with the current runs on the board the S/P should be around the 1.70-1.80. Would now like it to  jump every time Bondy pulls another rabbit out of the hat. Would like to know if any independent evaluation has been made on the US and Canadian assets? 

L/T share holder with Long Term Commitment.


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> Would like to know if any independent evaluation has been made on the US and Canadian assets?
> 
> L/T share holder with Long Term Commitment.




Tessad, I think you meant to say "US including Alaska assets" as they don't currently have any assets in Canada.

LNC in their presentation, before they sought finance for the US oil and Gas assets, produced some asset valuations. While not independent, they were based on various outside imputs. They were as follows-

Gulf Coast (@4000 bopd)    $504.5 M

Alaska                              $100- $200 M

Wyoming                          $20- $30 M

refer (from page 10 on)  http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-419.pdf

Obviously the Gulf Coast assets are now worth more with the increased production rates. And  the Alaska assets could increase dramatically if there are some good oil strikes over the next few months.

Looking forward to much more good news from LNC in January and the next few months.


----------



## Mickel

For the record, LNC finished down 21c at $1.75 on sales of 8.4 M shares after touching a low for the day of $1.68 .


----------



## basilio

Not an hour into the day yet and LNC has manged to fall to $1.64 from its $1.75 close -  and then roar back to  $1.89 - its current price. 

Some very creative trading at the moment.


----------



## Mickel

Yes Bas. Very wild trading in the first hour. 

Opened at $1.735, dropped to $1.64 then rose to $1.89  in the 1st hour, before trading in a tight range and finished at $1.855 (up10.5c) on turnover of 7.6 M shares.

Not able to post a daily chart, but if you check one out, you get  an accurate picture of the trading.


----------



## Mickel

A similiar trading day to yesterday. Opened and dropped to $1.83 then climbed to $1.97 before settling in a 5c range for most of the day. Finished at $1.935 (up 8c) on turnover of 5.7M shares.


----------



## Tezzad

Any way of finding out whether it's one buyer in particular or if its just the punters?


----------



## notting

You count to 3.

3 days and an increased or new major holder will be revealed, if that is the case.
3 days are up so clearly some mongaloides have learnt how to press a buy button in an asylum somewhere.


----------



## Tezzad

When Linc was booted out of the ASX 200 the S/P was around the 65 cent range (I think). Now it is above that and has held around the 1.90 range, one would assume that it will be back in (if it can hold around this level). At what point do the large funds have to hold Linc stock? Do they have to wait until the ratings come out or do they buy back at the point that they bailed out?


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> When Linc was booted out of the ASX 200 the S/P was around the 65 cent range (I think). Now it is above that and has held around the 1.90 range, one would assume that it will be back in (if it can hold around this level). At what point do the large funds have to hold Linc stock? Do they have to wait until the ratings come out or do they buy back at the point that they bailed out?




Hi Tezzad

My understanding is that most large funds use the ASX 200 as a guide for their investments (if they are an index fund they follow it exactly). But apart from index funds, they don't have to hold any particular stock.

The ASX 200 is rebalanced every quarter, with the next one announced in early March to take effect later that month.
http://www.asx200list.com/

Currently (3 Jan 13) there are more than 20 companies in the ASX 200 with a market capitalisation of under $500 M, so LNC should have no difficulty in getting back in the ASX 200 in March.

Trading over the last few days has been somewhat subdued with less turnover and trading in a range between $1.80 and $1.95. A number of Techies have stated this is a good trend as it allows a consolidation of the recent steep increases.

In trading this afternoon LNC appears to be setting a base above $1.95. IMO it will only need one good announcement this week to push the S/P over $2. In the next 2 weeks we should have announcements on 1. Oil shale in Sth Aust, 2. Umiat drilling 1st well. 3 Approval to drill below salt domes in US Gulf Coast and 4 Quarterly Report.

Can't wait !!!!


----------



## Mickel

Oil Shale Announcement is out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Luckhoo

Looks promising !

Hopefully the S/P will move north of $2.00


----------



## Tezzad

Another promising announcement, but there still seems to be a lot of sellers around the $2 mark? Lets hope when I get home from work everybody is knocking themselves out to get on board. 

Excited long time Linc Shareholder


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> Another promising announcement, but there still seems to be a lot of sellers around the $2 mark? Lets hope when I get home from work everybody is knocking themselves out to get on board.
> 
> Excited long time Linc Shareholder




Your hope is already confirmed Tezzad.

S/P is currently $2.15 (up 18c) on sales of 3.3 M


----------



## Mickel

Sorry about the reference for the LNC ann. This is the correct one-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-458.pdf

S/P currently $2.18 (up 21c) on sales of 4.3 M shares after hitting a peak of $2.22


----------



## Tezzad

Couldn't help myself. I stayed back to amuse myself watching it in real time. I must admit it quite exciting to no your on a winner (not that I think investing hard earned money in a solid company is punting). Would like it to see the day out around $2.15


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad you may find it hard to leave your computer. I'd order in dinner/brekky just in case. LOL !!

Currently $2.20 again on 5.1M sales .

Some are saying that there will be little resistance up to $2.50. It may have to finish above $2.06 for a day before soaring to that target, so perhaps tomorrow .

It's always great to watch the S/P soar, especially when you have a few thou.


----------



## Sean K

Did I hear correctly that some consultants are predicting something between 3 and 250 billion barrels under SA. At least they're giving themselves a little room to move on the numbers. Must be some pretty solid data they're working on to come up with such accurate figures.

$20 trillion worth? Huh


----------



## Tezzad

Just looked at the numbers, buyers for 2.5m shares, sellers 1.5m. They're lining up again today. I get a minds eye picture of all those people waiting out the front of the department stores before the Boxing Day sales.


----------



## prawn_86

Tezzad said:


> I get a minds eye picture of all those people waiting out the front of the department stores before the Boxing Day sales.




Why would you get that? It's not a retail stock...


----------



## Tezzad

3 to 1 buyers to sellers before the start of play! This could get really interesting?


----------



## basilio

Still on vertical climb.

I think the Peter Bond Press release with the huge reserve figures has sparked much of the flurry. The analysts have been much more cautious because as yet no one has clue how cost effective it will be to exploit this shale oil.


----------



## Sean K

Anyone checked nearology stocks?


----------



## basilio

This is just crazy.  Currently $2.47 with a bullet. 

Anyone got a pin ?


----------



## basilio

kennas said:


> Anyone checked nearology stocks?




I believe CTP has always touted its huge leases with the potential for coal, shale oil and traditional oil.  In fact one of their selling points was the  prediction that they had enough resources to power Australia for decades.

They have just never quite made it.   Little movement today either.

I would wonder how many multi billion developments would be possible in our market ?

http://www.ucg-gtl.com/CTP-UCG-GTL-CTL-Helium


----------



## prawn_86

kennas said:


> Anyone checked nearology stocks?




AJQ are also doing shale drilling but up in the NT. They were up 10% yesterday and over 50% in the last couple months


----------



## grace

Sold the last of my holdings (20%) last week at just over $1.90, can't believe the screen today.  Although I was very happy last week to get that price.
Sold 80% of my holdings at $3.60 a couple of years back so can't complain.
Chart very vertical, always opportunities and plenty of risks atm imo.
Will watch and wait, Linc has always been an interesting stock to follow.


----------



## pixel

basilio said:


> Still on vertical climb.
> 
> I think the Peter Bond Press release with the huge reserve figures has sparked much of the flurry. The analysts have been much more cautious because as yet no one has clue how cost effective it will be to exploit this shale oil.




correct, basilio

... and just wait till the planet saviours will link shale and the Artesian Basin's water supply 
They'll have a fracking field day and keep courts busy for a decade.

But then again, the share price is rising, which is always an opportunity for traders to earn a living


----------



## basilio

Does anyone else think the Shale Oil announcement has too much blue sky ?  That it has been marketed to a largely unsophisticated investing public that only see the (possible) 22 billions barrels of oil reserves and don't realise this is a very uncertain and long term proposition ?

It seems to me that every paper in the country is carrying the Press Release as a popular  news story rather than a financial one. The result seems to be self fulfilling bubble. Perhaps its a neat way to justify to the Chinese the proposed $4.50 a share for the UCG/GTL project

I believe LNC has some very valuable assets and will be well worth its price. I'm just not convinced that this latest jump is based on a realistic  deal.


----------



## Mickel

Good to see more posters commenting on LNC even if some Mods are negative/sarcastic.

Seems as if the techies were right as I suggested yesterday- there was not much resistance in the S/P up to $2.50 .

Some are saying the next resistance is $2.75 .

Perhaps we will touch that mark tomorrow. Would be great to finish the week above $2.50 .

There is much more good news to come with LNC. The quarterly report due next week may enlighten us even more.

Sorry to see you exit the stock, Grace as you were an early poster on the LNC thread from memory.

However I understand that profits are always welcome and not much is guaranteed.

LT Holder


----------



## basilio

Its interesting to go back to start of this thread and reflect on the many stories LNC  has run.

It began as a UCG/GTL play with the intention  of being able to turn around the nations dependence on imported oil. The first GTL plant was commissioned around Feb 2008.

5 years later and there is still no commercial GTL plant. Certainly lots of research, improvements and possibilities. 

*But no  commercial GTL operation. *

There are very few certainties in mining and following LNCs progress has demonstrated how many  slips there can be between plans and results. Which is why I'm not holding my breath on the shale oil announcement.

There a certainly some excellent projects on the go. But there have been many disappointments and nothing is guaranteed.


----------



## basilio

$2.70. !!!   WTF.  Does anyone have a Black Tulip bulb ?

http://www.thetulipomania.com/


----------



## skc

basilio said:


> $2.70. !!!   WTF.  Does anyone have a Black Tulip bulb ?
> 
> http://www.thetulipomania.com/




Make that new high of $2.83. A lazy 500%+ from the lows of Nov 2012.

I sold this morning at $2.44 thinking I was awesome  

Just a random guess that this will come back 10%+ from this high in the next 2 days... just a gut feel and certainly not going to short this runaway bull.


----------



## McLovin

The ads on Sky Business are working then.


----------



## basilio

Can't resist a piece of trivia.

In just over 3 hours LNC has jumped  64c.  

*Two months ago it was valued at under 60c.*

And this rocket is fueled by a shale oil play that is years away from starting and may not be economically viable.

Congratulations to all holders !!


----------



## Mickel

So true Bas. 

However this was mainly because the Qld Govt restricted their operations to trials at Chinchilla. In the "wash up" this was both bad and good. Bad because it put a big dent in LNC's plans but good n that it allowed LNC to further refine their research and make the whole operation more economically viable.

One of the pending stories on LNC is whether (or not) the Qld Govt will finally allow commercial operations at Chinchilla after considering the "Expert Panel" report which they have had before Christmas.

One of the other big turning points for LNC in 2009 was the Chinese Company not going ahead with their MOU (signed in Sept 2008) to buy Teresa for $1,500 million in the wake of the GFC.

Perhaps the " $20 trillion " story is overstating the value but there is much more good news in the pipeline for LNC this year and they should go onward and upward (with a few dips) this year.


----------



## notting

This is a listed resource company that spends time advertising it's potential, even on TV!
They used flying pigs as drones to map the potential.
Still, it's a bulls domain so there's money to be made and you can't argue with that.
Especially if you sell.


----------



## basilio

Latest story is a "backtrack" from LNC on the estimated value of shale oil at Arkaringa. Peter Bond rightly points out you can't multiply a nominal  223 Billion Barrels Oil by $95 to get $20 trillion.

In fact the whole story highlights  the cautious nature of the report. Its big and has potential but it has  a long way to go.

So where did the $20 trillion headline come from? I'd be very interested to know. *So I think should ASIC*.  Todays leap in price is way beyond a reasonable (or even big)  response to the report.  I suggest it was given a very big kick start with the $20trillion headline. And perhaps there are some particular people who have done very well with this almighty shove to the SP.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the day pans out and Friday when the dust settles and people have digested the  story.

*( IMO I think it was only worth the 15c rise from yesterday*)

http://www.theage.com.au/business/2...y-check-for-linc-oil-find-20130124-2d8zf.html


----------



## Mr Z

Speaking technically there was always an air pocket between $2 and $3, the move was going to be relatively fast just due to the fact that once two dollars was overcome the next big batch of sellers where not to be found until the 2.86 to 3.10 range. The mid point of this resistance is ~ 2.98, mid points often end up being the focal number. 

We have come too far too fast, to be healthy we need a decent correction, I thought that ~$2 should yield that but news said otherwise. Hopefully we correct and shake free the joy riders here, otherwise we need to top 3.10. If we do there is not a hell of a lot of potential selling to be seen between there and the old highs. We could melt up once again... news dependent.

This is all a little too quick for my taste, but hey... if we can hold it.


----------



## notting

I have heard a rumour that the US Fed is going to make a bid tomorrow to solve the US debt problem.
It truely is a miracle!


----------



## Mr Z

notting said:


> I have heard a rumour that the US Fed is going to make a bid tomorrow to solve the US debt problem.
> It truely is a miracle!




Oh yeah, how? Trillion dollar coins? Do tell! or link... this could be a heck of a lot of fun  The world is getting nuttier by the hour so why not roll out the next bit of insanity!


----------



## notting

Mr Z said:


> insanity!




I was watching the CEO being interviewed on sky and the share price at the same time.
The stock seemed to be moving on every word, which was kind of strange given he was claiming that, "it wasn't just people who read todays article that were buying the stock, there was all kinds of instos getting into it!!!!"


----------



## prawn_86

notting said:


> I was watching the CEO being interviewed on sky and the share price at the same time.
> The stock seemed to be moving on every word, which was kind of strange given he was claiming that, "it wasn't just people who read todays article that were buying the stock, there was all kinds of instos getting into it!!!!"




This is a CEO who appears in the ads his company run on TV to promote a product that they dont make a profit from... He is certainly good with the media but i am yet to be convinced if he can bring any of the projects to fruition


----------



## Tyler Durden

skc said:


> Make that new high of $2.83. A lazy 500%+ from the lows of Nov 2012.
> 
> I sold this morning at $2.44 thinking I was awesome
> 
> Just a random guess that this will come back 10%+ from this high in the next 2 days... just a gut feel and certainly not going to short this runaway bull.




There are always profit takers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

skc said:


> Make that new high of $2.83. A lazy 500%+ from the lows of Nov 2012.
> 
> I sold this morning at $2.44 thinking I was awesome
> 
> Just a random guess that this will come back 10%+ from this high in the next 2 days... just a gut feel and certainly not going to short this runaway bull.




I agree with Tyler.

It will probably come back.

Nice to have been in it in Nov 12.

Good pick for those who picked it.

I didn't though looked at it.

gg


----------



## Mr Z

Tyler Durden said:


> There are always profit takers




We are about to run into a wall of sellers who are breaking even @ ~ $3 

That will tip the balance in the near future

It will take some buying pressure to overcome easily.

Better if we correct and lose the joy riders, ~ $2 would not phase me at all.


----------



## Tezzad

It has been a stella run. However, i believe that the company has been under valued for quite some time.  My rule of thumb, for a blue chip 3 times book value is trading at what it should be. The further down the food chain the lesser the multiple. With all the fingers in the pie that Linc has I think 2 times book value is fair (others may disagree). But at this point, increased oil production, JV's and partnerships in the pipeline, Royalties (pending although sometime down the track), Shale Oil Possibilities and exploration in Alaska. Who in there right mind can pinpoint a fair book value. We might find that when the dust settles the book value has increased and it is trading somewhere where it should be. Remember it has been here before and with considerably more smoke and mirrors. Runs are being score and goals are being kicked (just to string a few metaphors together). The surprise is that its been 18 weeks not 18 months.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Mr Z said:


> We are about to run into a wall of sellers who are breaking even @ ~ $3
> 
> That will tip the balance in the near future
> 
> It will take some buying pressure to overcome easily.
> 
> Better if we correct and lose the joy riders, ~ $2 would not phase me at all.




Agree Z.

A five year weekly chart shows resistance at $3.

I was going to post it earlier but thought it moot now after your incisive post.

Who knows it may shoot through it.







gg


----------



## basilio

Well they are bursting at the seams at the starting gate. Current predicted opening price is 2.88 up 21c !!

Still think the explosion over the shale  oil story is a beat up but for the moment it has a life of its own.

 ___________________________________________________________________________________

Another significant announcement has come from AFC.  This the fuel cell company that LNC has a 12% stake in and which could be a critical  component of providing cheap  non polluting electricity from UCG.

AFC announced that the electrode life on their cells is now over 6 months.  This takes it into even more cost effective markets than the previous 3 month life. They are confident they can make 12 months which seems to be the  point at which they cost compete with traditional coal fired power stations.

http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...s-fuel-cell-electrode-life-beyond-six-months/


----------



## notting

Went short at 2.92 Just for laughs
Stop now at 2.91!
Baught back between 2.70 and 2.73 cause I'm a pussy.


----------



## Mr Z

Technically speaking and if we close this far off the highs (2.76 ATM) this is looking like a near term top at 2.99. Close enough to the mid point of the resistance area to convince me that it will hold for a while. Daylight down to ~$2 where we will see buying again.... say 1.9x 

JMO.


----------



## Mr Z

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree Z.
> 
> A five year weekly chart shows resistance at $3.
> 
> I was going to post it earlier but thought it moot now after your incisive post.
> 
> Who knows it may shoot through it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg




 Thanks.

Unfortunately we got here too quickly, it is/was a monty for a short. This will do more damage than if we corrected in a good fashion @ ~ $2. Sans more good news this will be an extended correction and consolidation IMO. The setup for second half 2013 could be worth keeping an eye on, for now we need to define a floor and it would be nice to see ~$2 hold.

JMO


----------



## skc

notting said:


> Went short at 2.92 Just for laughs
> Stop now at 2.91!
> Baught back between 2.70 and 2.73 cause I'm a pussy.




Nice trade. 

I took the second elevator down... short at $2.64. Bought back half at $2.54 and now just trailing the stop at a 6c step.

It wopuldn't surprise me to see it down a good 8-12% from yesterday's close.


----------



## notting

> Brisbane-based Linc Energy released two reports on Wednesday stating that drilling and seismic exploration indicates the Arckaringa Basin surrounding Coober Pedy could contain anywhere between 3.5 and 233 billion barrels of oil.




3.5 to 233 :silly:


----------



## tinhat

Wow - what a day and still a few hours to go before the close of the week. I put a buy order in this morning before opening for $2.40 and it would have been executed except that I only managed to get back and cancel it just a few minutes ago.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Nice trade.
> 
> I took the second elevator down... short at $2.64. Bought back half at $2.54 and now just trailing the stop at a 6c step.
> 
> It wopuldn't surprise me to see it down a good 8-12% from yesterday's close.




All out at 238. Picked up 18 ticks from a range of 60 odd :bad:

I think there's probably a long trade now for 10-15 ticks...


----------



## notting

skc said:


> All out at 238. Picked up 18 ticks from a range of 60 odd




Can't complain about that!
Volume coming in between 2.30 and 2.40


----------



## notting

Back short at 2.49


----------



## Smurf1976

notting said:


> 3.5 to 233 :silly:




Oil in the ground is one thing. Being able to technically and profitably get it out and to a purchaser are entirely different things.

I could say that there's probably some minute concentration of gold in the soil under my house. That doesn't mean there's a way to profitably extract it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Very interesting price and volume action today. $2.40 seems an important price point for some.

gg


----------



## Mr Z

I have it as a low strength support area, it may hold but I doubt it will. We blew through it to the upside easily, I suspect it will cave to the downside just as easily.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Mr Z said:


> I have it as a low strength support area, it may hold but I doubt it will. We blew through it to the upside easily, I suspect it will cave to the downside just as easily.




Yes I'd agree.

Much supportive buying by I believe they are called gnats or bats with low volume buying.

A few wayward snorts could cause a crumble.

gg


----------



## Mr Z

Day tripping shorters exiting? Could be a volatile start to the week next week!


----------



## noirua

basilio said:


> Does anyone else think the Shale Oil announcement has too much blue sky ?  That it has been marketed to a largely unsophisticated investing public that only see the (possible) 22 billions barrels of oil reserves and don't realise this is a very uncertain and long term proposition ?
> 
> It seems to me that every paper in the country is carrying the Press Release as a popular  news story rather than a financial one. The result seems to be self fulfilling bubble. Perhaps its a neat way to justify to the Chinese the proposed $4.50 a share for the UCG/GTL project
> 
> I believe LNC has some very valuable assets and will be well worth its price. I'm just not convinced that this latest jump is based on a realistic  deal.




May well be overdone as most of the shale in the Arckaringa has a mining license issued to China's largest company CNOOC and all of the area south of Coober Pedy has a mining license issued to Australia's White Energy Limited WEC, and Western Plains Resources WPG holds licenses to the East at Penhryn.


----------



## Mickel

noirua said:


> May well be overdone as most of the shale in the Arckaringa has a mining license issued to China's largest company CNOOC and all of the area south of Coober Pedy has a mining license issued to Australia's White Energy Limited WEC, and Western Plains Resources WPG holds licenses to the East at Penhryn.




Noirua, are you saying that CNOOC and WEC particularly have mining licenses that overlap LNC's Petroleum Exploration licenses in the Arckaringa basin ?

If that is the case, wouldn't the PEL's have preference for shale oil ?

Do you have any references for the other companies' mining licenses ?

I can't see any big mining leases in that area shown on this Sth Aust Govt site - https://sarig.pir.sa.gov.au/Map


----------



## notting

You got the wrong map there Mickel
LNCs map for presentation to insto's looks more like this:


----------



## Mickel

Ha ! Ha ! Notting.

My query remains serious and my map is from Sth Aust Dept of Mining.


----------



## Smurf1976

So let me get this straight. Linc Energy, a small company with limited experience, has supposedly found up to 233 billion barrels of oil.

To put that into perspective it's a bit more than has been found in the entire USA, which has thus far produced more oil than any other country, over the past 150+ years of oil exploration. It's far larger than the North Sea and larger than Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), the largest known oil field in the world.

Now pardon me for wondering why it is that the likes of Shell, BP etc all somehow missed this one? Even the local "major" companies like Santos missed it, preferring instead to mess about with comparatively trivial deposits in the Cooper Basin. BHP didn't find it either and nor did any of the many other more experienced (than Linc) companies who have explored for various minerals and/or drilled holes in the ground over the years.

I just don't believe that Linc is going to produce anything even remotely close to 233 billion barrels of oil in South Australia. That's about 20% of all oil ever used in the history of the modern world and makes Linc the world's largest oil company in terms of reserves and SA the world's largest oil deposit. If it were true, then it represents a massive change in Australia itself with SA as the dominant state economically and most present day activities reduced to being of trivial importance economically. 

I suspect that they will run into the same wall that others before them have tried and failed to jump. Oil shale is just that, shale. It's kerogen not actual oil that can be pumped as you'd normally do and getting liquid fuels out of the stuff is no mean feat to achieve in an economical and environmentally acceptable manner. Oil in the ground is one thing, getting it out is where the problems arise.


----------



## Tyler Durden

Smurf1976 said:


> So let me get this straight. Linc Energy, a small company with limited experience, has supposedly found up to 233 billion barrels of oil.
> 
> To put that into perspective it's a bit more than has been found in the entire USA, which has thus far produced more oil than any other country, over the past 150+ years of oil exploration. It's far larger than the North Sea and larger than Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), the largest known oil field in the world.




Yes! And you can get a share for only $2.41!

But wait, there's more! If you buy now, that share will include a possibility of future joint ventures and partnerships!

How's that for a bargain?!

But wait - there's more!

There's also exploration in Alaska, all this for only $2.41!!!

Bargain!!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Mr Z said:


> Day tripping shorters exiting? Could be a volatile start to the week next week!




I'd be more concerned about the insto jockeys.

Lots of dough to be made on a stock such as this.






gg


----------



## noirua

Mickel said:


> Noirua, are you saying that CNOOC and WEC particularly have mining licenses that overlap LNC's Petroleum Exploration licenses in the Arckaringa basin ?
> 
> If that is the case, wouldn't the PEL's have preference for shale oil ?
> 
> Do you have any references for the other companies' mining licenses ?
> 
> I can't see any big mining leases in that area shown on this Sth Aust Govt site - https://sarig.pir.sa.gov.au/Map




CNOOC interest in The Arckaringa Basin:

http://asaconference.com.au/files/2...nergy-ASA-Conference-Brisbane-28-Aug-2012.pdf

WECs Interest is larger than England:
http://www.abload.de/img/woomera-review-map-mme6t.png

Western Plains Resources - Penhryn:
WPG Resources - Peculiar Knob
http://www.westernplainsresources.com.au/projects-peculiar-knob.html


----------



## Mickel

Thanks for those references Noirua .

I note that they are only mineral exploration licenses to date and in the case of Altona
only a small part of the Arckaringa Basin.

My understanding is that they don’t cover exploration for oil (incl Shale Oil).

It is obvious that the PELs and MELs overlap. Hopefully the SA Govt has a better
process for resolving any competing claims for ground than the Qld Govt has so far
between Coal Seam Gas tenements and those of UCG.

As for the other posters, I suggest you read all of the latest announcement- 
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-458.pdf

and also read Peter Bond’s comment regarding the “$20 Trillion “ headlines
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...nc-oil-find-20130124-2d8zf.html#ixzz2IrThlnpZ

And finally the LNC find is Oil Shale not Shale Oil. There is a big difference. DYOR. 

PS Noirua, the voting on Stock Forums has closed.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> CNOOC interest in The Arckaringa Basin:
> 
> http://asaconference.com.au/files/2...nergy-ASA-Conference-Brisbane-28-Aug-2012.pdf
> 
> WECs Interest is larger than England:
> http://www.abload.de/img/woomera-review-map-mme6t.png
> 
> Western Plains Resources - Penhryn:
> WPG Resources - Peculiar Knob
> http://www.westernplainsresources.com.au/projects-peculiar-knob.html






Mickel said:


> Thanks for those references Noirua .
> 
> I note that they are only mineral exploration licenses to date and in the case of Altona
> only a small part of the Arckaringa Basin.
> 
> My understanding is that they don’t cover exploration for oil (incl Shale Oil).
> 
> It is obvious that the PELs and MELs overlap. Hopefully the SA Govt has a better
> process for resolving any competing claims for ground than the Qld Govt has so far
> between Coal Seam Gas tenements and those of UCG.
> 
> As for the other posters, I suggest you read all of the latest announcement-
> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-458.pdf
> 
> and also read Peter Bond’s comment regarding the “$20 Trillion “ headlines
> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...nc-oil-find-20130124-2d8zf.html#ixzz2IrThlnpZ
> 
> And finally the LNC find is Oil Shale not Shale Oil. There is a big difference. DYOR.
> 
> PS Noirua, the voting on Stock Forums has closed.




Thanks .

Probably best posts of the year.

gg


----------



## notting

> The estimates released by Linc on Wednesday were classified by the consultants as unrisked prospective resources - *the lowest category of certainty* - because of their ‘‘*lack of commerciality* or sufficient drilling’’.
> As the consultants wrote: ‘‘There is no certainty that *any* portion of the prospective resources estimated herein *will be discovered*. *If discovered*, there is *no* certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce *any portion* of the resources.’’




So what has been discovered exactly? Oh yeah rock formations that sometimes contain oil!
Wooo Hooo go to town baby!



> ‘‘It’s a multi-billion barrel opportunity, *and that’s a good news story*. OK it’s not $20 trillion. But 3, 4, 5 billion barrel resources are virtually unheard of these days, so even stressing this number down to the minimum number the experts stress it down to, *it’s* still *a big story*.’’




That's a little closer, but really, the wording should not be 'opportunity' emplying even a 3 billion barrel resource,  it's not a big opportunity until there is *certainty* that you can get *some *of what is yet to be discovered out!  
Then if that happens there is an opportunity for someone to build something that can suck and sell after pumping 300 million $$$ into finding something on top of the 150 million spent already.
So where are we again?  Oh yeah, 5 years away form seeing a yet to be discovered glassful of oil which may be redundant old world technology by then anyway looking at what's going on with gas and electric cars and climate issues etc!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

notting said:


> So what has been discovered exactly? Oh yeah rock formations that sometimes contain oil!
> Wooo Hooo go to town baby!
> 
> 
> 
> That's a little closer, but really, the wording should not be 'opportunity' emplying even a 3 billion barrel resource,  it's not a big opportunity until there is *certainty* that you can get *some *of what is yet to be discovered out!
> Then if that happens there is an opportunity for someone to build something that can suck and sell after pumping 300 million $$$ into finding something on top of the 150 million spent already.
> So where are we again?  Oh yeah, 5 years away form seeing a yet to be discovered glassful of oil which may be redundant old world technology by then anyway looking at what's going on with gas and electric cars and climate issues etc!




So what is the considered opinion for a muppet like me, do I approach her as an Angelina Jolie or as an ole tart about to take my jewels.

Not that, with great respect to Angelina, she would not take my jewels.

gg 

ps  Jeez these Gillard/Roxon Offence laws will make it difficult to post replies.

gg


----------



## Mickel

notting said:


> That's a little closer, but really, the wording should not be 'opportunity' emplying even a 3 billion barrel resource,  it's not a big opportunity until there is *certainty* that you can get *some *of what is yet to be discovered out!




Notting, I agree that there is no certainty that LNC (and JV partner) will get any oil out AND at a economic price.

If there WAS certainty for ONLY 3 Billion barrels and with a profit of $20pb ($10 for each JV partner), that equates to earnings of $30 BILLION for LNC. Put your own valuation on LNC's S/P then, but it would be much more than $2.41 .

The 2 Oil Shale fields that are compared to LNC's (Bakken and Eagle Ford in USA) snuck up on everyone and have outperformed everyone's expectations.

More recently BHP forked out $12 Billion for Petrohawks Oil Shale field in Texas and now have some experience with Oil Shale.

Oh Yes ! BHP has the massive Olympic Dam project not far from LNC's PELs .

As before DYOR.

As I have stated on here many times over the last 4+ years, I am a long term holder.


----------



## Mickel

Garpal Gumnut said:


> So what is the considered opinion for a muppet like me, do I approach her as an Angelina Jolie or as an ole tart about to take my jewels.
> 
> Not that, with great respect to Angelina, she would not take my jewels.
> 
> gg
> 
> ps  Jeez these Gillard/Roxon Offence laws will make it difficult to post replies.
> 
> gg




GG

Good to see the wild weather up there didn't wash you down Ross Creek.

Not that happy that you sent it down here. Brissy is copping a pasting at present with some minor flooding of creeks, low lying areas etc. Not as bad as the Bundaberg area though. Hope those rum vats are still ok. LOL !!


----------



## Smurf1976

Mickel said:


> And finally the LNC find is Oil Shale not Shale Oil. There is a big difference. DYOR.



Indeed. The big difference being that Oil Shale is (1) incredibly common and (2) essentially worthless.

They already mine oil shale in SA. It's dumped as waste, its' removal being necessary in order to access the coal underneath at Leigh Creek. This has been going on since at least the 1950's so it's nothing new.

Oil Shale is incredibly common. Queensland has heaps of the stuff and even Tasmania has several dozen known deposits as do many other places. Finding more of it is akin to finding sand - useful only if you find it someplace that doesn't have any and which actually has a use for it. There are a few places, notably Estonia, which use oil shale as fuel for power stations but that's about it.

The main concern I have about Linc is that there's just too much hype relative to actual results in my opinion.


----------



## Mickel

Smurf1976 said:


> Indeed. The big difference being that Oil Shale is (1) incredibly common and (2) essentially worthless.
> 
> They already mine oil shale in SA. It's dumped as waste, its' removal being necessary in order to access the coal underneath at Leigh Creek. This has been going on since at least the 1950's so it's nothing new.
> 
> Oil Shale is incredibly common. Queensland has heaps of the stuff and even Tasmania has several dozen known deposits as do many other places. Finding more of it is akin to finding sand - useful only if you find it someplace that doesn't have any and which actually has a use for it. There are a few places, notably Estonia, which use oil shale as fuel for power stations but that's about it.
> 
> The main concern I have about Linc is that there's just too much hype relative to actual results in my opinion.




I think you have the two mixed up Smurf. LNC's Shale Oil tenements are also known as "tight oil ". It is liquid and that's why it is being compared to Bakken and Eagle Ford in the USA.

This from LNC's presentation in Nov 2012-

"Shale Oil Asset – Arckaringa Basin
•Linc Energy has proved the existence of a working petroleum system with approximately 41o API oil discovered in the Maglia-1 well;
•Linc Energy has identified formations within the Arckaringa Basin as having excellent resource play potential with TOC levels, permeability, porosity and thickness comparing favourably to prolific unconventional liquid plays in the USA (Bakken, Eagle Ford, Mississippi Lime); and
•Linc Energy is currently finalising our technical evaluations."

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-435.pdf

If you or any shareholder doubts this, phone LNC for their confirmation.


----------



## Mickel

I might add some points to show that I'm not just a gung-ho ramper.

Yes, I agree that there has been too much over enthusiasm with the Shale Oil, mainly because of the "$20 Trillion" headlines.

Apart from the large expenditure required just to confirm the reserve, production of the oil will also be more expensive than conventional oil production.

However the signs are good that it will be commercial.


----------



## Smurf1976

Mickel said:


> I think you have the two mixed up Smurf. LNC's Shale Oil tenements are also known as "tight oil ". It is liquid and that's why it is being compared to Bakken and Eagle Ford in the USA.



I won't claim to be an expert on what the company has supposedly found, my main point being that I don't trust any company with such a high level of hype associated with it. When a company that has limited cashflow spends money to advertise a product they don't even have available for sale then that makes me immediately suspicious.

Second issue I have with them is apparent indecision as to what business they are actually in. First the aim was to turn coal into liquid fuels. Then they wanted to generate electricity. Then attention turned to conventional oil production. Now it's shale oil. The only common theme there is energy. What next? Uranium mines and hydro-electric dams? 

It's like opening a fashion retail store then turning it into a fish shop and ending up selling tyres. The only common theme is retailing and there's not much cross-over in terms of useful product knowledge there. Likewise there's not a lot in common between turning coal into gas versus extracting shale oil form the ground. It's a very different industry and I feel that the Company is trying to take on far too much, far too quickly.

As for the oil shale, I was responding specifically to a previous post which stated that they had found "oil shale". Whether or not that is correct I don't know, but I do know that oil shale is a very different thing to either conventional crude oil or shale oil. If they've found shale oil then that's potentially a good thing. But if it's only oil shale then that's not worth getting excited about. Refer the original post I was responding to.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

So... Is it a goer?

Or not.

gg


----------



## keely

Eagleford USA is a good producer of shale liquids as well as gas. if it is correct that Linc's find is comparable in characteristics this is indeed good news for Linc. 
A little background, all shale gas or liquids come from kerogen in the shale. There are 4 types of kerogen. Type 2 is oil prone, type 3 is gas prone. Linc describe quantities of type 2 & type 3 kerogen. Most shale plays in the Cooper basin are type 3 kerogen (gas).
Regardless of kerogen type shale needs apx 500degC to release the vast majority of its kerogen as oil or gas - hence surface retorting processes (such as the old Suncor project in Qld).
Been able to do this inside a well is the real answer - no mining costs, and much cheaper and simpler.

Linc are a technology company.
There are 2 current technologies that enable introducing 500DDegC into a shale deposit in the ground.
Both use ordinary water in its superheated state to do this (no fraccing chemicals).
One is for drilling through hard deep rocks like granite (USA) signed off by the USA department as field tested and field ready, and the other is an Aussie technology UCTL which has been ticked off by Stanford Uni (USA).
Poor old UCTL got itself tangled up with Regal Resources and has gone nowhere recently.
The point is the technology to get all the oil out from these type of shales already exists now, even if the technology is very young.
The big majors rarely put any money into technologies such as these until after they are already in production elsewhere.
Linc may be exactly the right company to pick up either of these technologies and make the breakthrough in field production of shale that has been long awaited. 
If so the big numbers talked about might be realised.




Mickel said:


> I think you have the two mixed up Smurf. LNC's Shale Oil tenements are also known as "tight oil ". It is liquid and that's why it is being compared to Bakken and Eagle Ford in the USA.
> 
> This from LNC's presentation in Nov 2012-
> 
> "Shale Oil Asset – Arckaringa Basin
> •Linc Energy has proved the existence of a working petroleum system with approximately 41o API oil discovered in the Maglia-1 well;
> •Linc Energy has identified formations within the Arckaringa Basin as having excellent resource play potential with TOC levels, permeability, porosity and thickness comparing favourably to prolific unconventional liquid plays in the USA (Bakken, Eagle Ford, Mississippi Lime); and
> •Linc Energy is currently finalising our technical evaluations."
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-435.pdf
> 
> If you or any shareholder doubts this, phone LNC for their confirmation.


----------



## basilio

As I said earlier (and as almost all analysts agree) the shale oil deal *could* be valuable - possibly very valuable.

But there is a loooooonnnng way to go to prove its viability and commercial prospects. In that sense this current  zoom in SP is unwarranted and looks . in my mind,  to be a bit of  ramp.

However the other opportunities that LNC is developing - the China GTL deal, oil in Alaska, international UCG,  hydrogen fuel cells, Teresa coal sale ect  should have sufficient legs to make LNC fly.

But the critical element in my mind is the achievement of the  6000 Barrels of oil a month  in the US. That appears to stabilise the finances of the company and ensure no critical cash flow problems. IMO.


----------



## notting

Smurf1976 said:


> Second issue I have with them is apparent indecision as to what business they are actually in. First the aim was to turn coal into liquid fuels. Then they wanted to generate electricity. Then attention turned to conventional oil production. Now it's shale oil. The only common theme there is energy. What next? Uranium mines and hydro-electric dams?




You forgot to mention real estate!!!
Buy acerage rights, ramp, sell them to farm in suckers!!



basilio said:


> That appears to stabilise the finances of the company and ensure* no critical cash flow problems.*




What an achievement!
I prefer healthy cash flow, little or no debt and understated, speaking for itself, proven potential.  Kind of like the way SDL was being managed prior to the plane crash, by a billionaire!

It will be interesting to see which way the market votes on Tuesday afternoon for the momentum play.


----------



## Mickel

I prefer to ignore your sarcastic comments Notting. Smurf , I think you were on the LNC thread years ago so I thought you might have been more aware of LNCs trials and achievements. But it appears you arn't .

On a positive note, Bas have you seen the latest announcement by AFC Energy ?

They've extended the life of their fuel cells beyond 6 months which is very good news.

Read it here - http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...s-fuel-cell-electrode-life-beyond-six-months/


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> I prefer to ignore your sarcastic comments Notting.




I feel you'd be better off ignoring Brisbane news Papers and TV adds.


----------



## dogeatdog

notting said:


> I feel you'd be better off ignoring Brisbane news Papers and TV adds.




Give it a rest notting, your boring at least two of us.

This article is reasonably comprehensive. 
http://www.commodities-now.com/reports/power-and-energy/13676-shale-oil-and-the-australian-outback--a-hot-secure-frontier.html


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> I prefer to ignore your sarcastic comments Notting. Smurf , I think you were on the LNC thread years ago so I thought you might have been more aware of LNCs trials and achievements. But it appears you arn't .
> *
> On a positive note, Bas have you seen the latest announcement by AFC Energy ?*
> 
> They've extended the life of their fuel cells beyond 6 months which is very good news.
> 
> Read it here - http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...s-fuel-cell-electrode-life-beyond-six-months/




It is exciting. I picked it up a couple of days  ago and posted it on link below
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4010&p=751001&viewfull=1#post751001


----------



## dogeatdog

Happy Australia day folks


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> Happy Australia day folks




Thanks Doggy. Very quiet Australia Day weekend with the weather and road conditions.

It appears that most of the rain has gone now ( http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR502.loop.shtml ).
But some creeks and low lying areas are flooded and with the river to rise further tomorrow, it will restrict draining of these areas and probably cause more flooding. This is mainly because of water entering the Brisbane River below the dams.

"I feel you'd be better off ignoring Brisbane news Papers and TV adds. "

Notting, you'd be a lot richer if you hadn't ignored my posts on this thread from Dec 2012.

Winners can laugh and losers can please themselves. LOL !! LOL !! LOL !!


----------



## Mickel

Some people may better understand Shale Oil from this simple video
explaining drilling for shale oil-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO-aNBHV4VI


----------



## Smurf1976

Mickel said:


> I prefer to ignore your sarcastic comments Notting. Smurf , I think you were on the LNC thread years ago so I thought you might have been more aware of LNCs trials and achievements. But it appears you arn't



Yes I've been on this thread previously and I invested in the stock quite some time ago on the basis that I was investing in a company which planned to turn coal into marketable liquid fuels (diesel, kero etc) via an underground gasification process.

Then the company started actively marketing to the public via both actual advertising and a number of "stunts" such as the Diesel Dash. That's a rather strange move for a company which doesn't actually have a product to sell. Then there's the attempted move into electricity generation and the actual move into conventional oil production. Now they're interested in shale oil too.

I just can't see how management could possibly be properly focused on so many different things at once. Each one of them is a difficult challenge in itself, and it's not as though Linc has the resources of someone like BHP or Wesfarmers and can divide itself into multiple units each focused on a specific business. 

Maybe they can pull it off and I hope that they do. But it's not going to be easy that's for sure to be doing so many different things all at once. 

As for the shale, I was responding to a previous post which stated "oil shale". Having now read the actual announcement from the company, they are clearly talking about shale oil not oil shale. That being so, my previous comments about oil shale are not applicable and I stand corrected. 

So far as resources are concerned, they are referring to barrels of oil equivalent not oil as such. Based on general experience in Australia plus the data in the company's announcement, much of that (probably the majority) is likely to be gas rather than actual oil. There's nothing wrong with finding gas of course, but it's considerably less valuable than actual oil. The figures from the company suggest about 15% oil, 35% condensate (which can be considered as oil) and 50% sales gas (natural gas) for the risk adjusted scenario of 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. So that's about 1.75 billion barrels of oil and condensate which is the most valuable stuff. 

I continue to hold a small investment in Linc.


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> Winners can laugh




Sure can.
Especially when they have cashed in! 
Shorted and won three times so far.

What is your cost price for LNC $5, 4$ $3, $2.
At what point would you think you will turn it into a win or* loss*?



Smurf1976 said:


> The figures from the company suggest about 15% oil, 35% condensate (which can be considered as oil) and 50% sales gas (natural gas) for the risk adjusted scenario of 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. So that's about 1.75 billion barrels of oil and condensate which is the most valuable stuff.




I'd be very careful about accepting even that much.
So far they got nothing other than speculative guesstimates.
One sales trick it to make a massive price as a first pitch to make the lowest price seem feesable.  It isn't, and is unlikely to be looking at the history and character peddling *the story*.


----------



## Mickel

Smurf1976 said:


> I just can't see how management could possibly be properly focused on so many different things at once. Each one of them is a difficult challenge in itself, and it's not as though Linc has the resources of someone like BHP or Wesfarmers and can divide itself into multiple units each focused on a specific business.
> 
> 
> I continue to hold a small investment in Linc.




Smurf, You haven't kept up to date and have omitted some basic history of LNC.

Firstly, they HAVE split into 4 units that are individually managed- Please refer to 2012 AGM.

Secondly, I thought you would remember that their initial plans to produce UCG and GTL at Chinchilla were restricted by the then Qld Govt who would not give them a commercial license in 2008/9.

Some of their coal exploration tenements (where they were looking for deep underground coal for UCG) revealed valuable mineable coal which they sold/have on market.

When one (Galilee/Carmichael) sold for $500M plus a royalty, they looked for a business with cashflow (and probable benefits for CO2 extracted from UCG).This led to the purchase of US oil fields. Another tenement (Teresa) was apparently close to being sold a number of times but with the GFC and then the fall of coal prices hasn't to date.

Sapex in Sth Aust was bought mainly for UCG which hasn't worked out to date in the Walloway Basin. It has some oil prospects and drilling them has lead to the current shale oil find.

The US oil fields have had some problems but the Announcement on Jan 8 2013 together with earlier speculation of what the Billionaire Roman Abramovich was discussing with Peter Bond in Brisbane and Chinchilla, has propelled the LNC S/P from around 70c to $1.80 approx. All this before the latest Shale Oil announcement.

One other point. What LNC has been doing (in trials at least) is world leading practice and their market is not just in Australia, it is world wide. So "stunts" ,as you call the Diesel Dash, are meant for a world wide audience, and I'm sure that there has been more than one Billionaire who has taken note of LNCs achievements.

Perhaps if you had kept up to date with all this, you would now have a larger holding than you do. Then again, perhaps not.

Good luck.


----------



## brty

Smurf,

You need to remember that many people, including those that have invested their hard earned, do not understand the difference between shale oil and oil shale, and thus use the terms as if they were the one and the same. 

Oil shale being a rock known as kerogen, while shale oil being 'real' oil contained in the pores of the shale material.

Looking at some details we see that over the 64,000 sq km? area we could have a resource of 3b BOE, possibly a lot higher. I'm sure that there are many here that don't understand that BOE (Barrels of Oil Equivalent) often means a lot of gas and less liquids, you have already covered this. Another part of the statement is the word Resource. Again many believe this is the same as Reserves, and nothing could be further from the truth.

Many oil resevoirs around the world have quite a low figure for recoverable reserves compared to the resource, often a low percentage as much of the oil is bound to the rock strata and just does not flow to the wells drilled, even with fracking, water injection, CO2 injection or nitrogen injection.

They will not be able to estimate the reserves until there has been a massive amount of drilling and flow of oil. If the resource is only the 3b BOE and half of that gas, even a 30% reserves estimate, which would be high, brings the whole area back into the 100's MBO. If the area needs to be fracked and hundreds or thousands of wells drilled, then the economics start to look poor. The whole basin is a long way from nowhere in terms of the infrastructure needed to access this oil. Nothing like the Bakken or Eagleford shales in that respect.

Think of how much  fracked well will cost if you have to truck the fracking fluids from hundreds of kilometers away, think of the expense of trucking out the oil, or building a pipeline. Wells in the Bakken or Eagleford shale areas cost upwards of $8m, with lots of misses amongst the successful wells. I have seen estimates of $70-80/bbl for the price of oil needed for these shale oil wells to be economic. In the Arkaringa, the price needed is likely to be much higher, which becomes a catch 22 as the costs of producing in the middle of nowhere goes up with the price of oil. 

No wonder LNC is looking for partners to pay the cost of drilling. If it was really as exciting as some portray, then why would you farm out the prospect?

LNC was my biggest loss in years, because I failed to follow my investment guidlines, fell for the story, and naturally bailed at precisely the wrong time in 2011.


----------



## Tezzad

I cannot believe that some are unable to see the blatant use of the media for what it is. LNC, as far as all the hippie types are concerned, is one of the big bad FRACKING destroyers of the forests, farm land, water table, air quality and anything that has ever gone wrong in the world. All of which should be band, wound up, and done away with. Although LNC's technology is different it has been placed on the same side of the argument, regardless of the facts. 

How does a company right this thinking? Engage in a good news media campaign of there own! Stunts and Gimmicks and HELLOOOO positive news exposure left right and center. Give a nice rounded figure and let the media run with it, heralding it as the coming of the next era . As far as I'm concerned I fined the recent positive news exposure as fighting fire with fire. Personal I have far more faith in someone who knows the ways of the world and is willing to get down and get dirty for the company. Never let to many facts get in the way of a good story. I'd rather see actual tankers carting loads off to the service stations right around the nation. But for now I've bought the dream (1.25-1.14-.75 -.65 -.62 -.57 and .69 on the way up) my retirement depends on it.

That said, if i see the head kahuna selling off any of his tidy little nest egg I might start questioning his motives! Until then I'll remain a L/T shareholder.


----------



## surrogate

So they are saying there is shale oil and not oil shale?.. I'm hearing different things...  Also what do you guys make of this article saying that they found conventional oil?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/113...e-just-won-the-oil-lottery?source=google_news


----------



## dogeatdog

surrogate said:


> So they are saying there is shale oil and not oil shale?.. I'm hearing different things...  Also what do you guys make of this article saying that they found conventional oil?
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113...e-just-won-the-oil-lottery?source=google_news




Hello surrogate. No idea what "different things" your hearing, but this was part of PB's news release on the 23rd.
"Gustavson has also conducted a preliminary assessment of resource potential in
conventional reservoirs in portions of the Arckaringa Basin, amounting to a separate
125 billion BOE on an unrisked basis •	Linc Energy holds a 100% interest in licences and applications covering approx.
65,000 contiguous square kilometres (16 million contiguous acres) in the Arckaringa
Basin"

The first half an hours volatility today, has been wonderful in both directions for day trading.


----------



## Smurf1976

A bit of terminology in "layman's terms" might be helpful here I think.

"Resources" - that's the mineral in the ground, taking no account of economic or even technical viability of getting it out. It's just how much of the stuff you have down there.

"Reserves" - that's the amount you can actually get out of the ground, at break even cost or better, using technology that is available and today's prices. Reserves can never be larger than resources, and is usually considerably smaller.

"Prospective resources" or any other term like that means resources they haven't actually found yet but, based on whatever arguments they are providing, they think they might find. It's like saying that a top athlete is a prospective gold medal winner - indeed they are a prospective winner, but it only really counts if they actually do win the medal.

"Oil or Crude Oil" - the stuff that most people think of when they think of oil. A liquid that is pumped or flows out of the ground and is processed at refineries to produce petrol, diesel etc.

"Gas liquids / Condensate" - this is liquid fuels that aren't oil as such from a chemistry perspective. But they're of comparable value and therefore can be considered as oil. Depending on the exact liquids in question, it's either sold as LPG or goes into a refinery along with the oil to produce petrol etc. Note that this is entirely different to LNG, which is the man-made liquefaction of methane (natural gas).

"Natural gas" - in chemical terms it's mostly methane. Also known as sales gas, it's the stuff that goes into pipelines and ends up in kitchens, factories etc as fuel. It is far less valuable than liquid fuels, largely due to greater abundance and the greater difficulty of using it (need for pipelines versus the ease of transporting liquid fuels).

"Shale oil" - that's liquid, pumpable oil that came from shale. There are some differences in the production process, but once its' out of the ground then for practical purposes it's the same as other oil. It goes into a refinery to produce petrol etc.

"Oil shale" - this is rocks which contain kerogen, a precursor of oil. Conventionally, to use it means mining the rock in the normal manner of mining. Options then are to either burn it "as is" as boiler fuel (to produce electricity) or process it to extract liquid oil (which can then be sent to a refinery). Estonia gets most of its' electricity from shale, the only country to do so, but a few others use it on a smaller scale. 

In terms of extracting liquids from it, suffice to say that's something that many have tried and failed at. Firstly it's expensive, secondly the very nature of the process lends itself toward massive pollution of the surrounding environment on a scale that makes brown coal, paper mills or just about any other polluting industry look decidedly "green" in comparison. In simple terms, the issue relates to what happens when you vapourise huge amounts of oil (to get it out of the shale) then somehow it manages to escape rather than being condensed as was intended. Suffice to say it will come down at some point, and that's not much good for the ecosystem that's for sure. Australia has seen a number of oil shale "boom" companies in the past, none of which succeeded. Overseas, Mobil famously spent a huge sum of money on it in the US before walking away many years ago. The problems all come back to the same thing - too expensive and it's rather hard, in practice, to not end up oiling the surrounding environment.

"Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE)" - this is simply a way of converting non-oil flammable materials into a common unit of measurement based on their energy content (not physical volume). Most commonly it applies to natural gas and condensate, but in theory you could say that a tonne of dry firewood is 2.5 barrels of oil equivalent. 

Another way to understand is to use an analogy. Suppose that you categorised all alcohol into "shots of vodka equivalent" based on the alcohol content. It sounds good, until you realise that buying a few bottles of metho will get the numbers up much more quickly than if you bought decent wine instead. It's a chemical-based measurement which takes no account of any other factors.

It's the same with BOE. Sales gas (natural gas) is a lot less valuable than actual oil, but you could find a field that is 100% gas (no oil at all) and express that number as "barrels of oil equivalent" if you wanted to. Just because you have lots of BOE doesn't necessarily mean you have any actual oil at all. Just like having a drum full of metho out the back doesn't mean you've got any vodka or wine even though the metho is most certainly a form of alcohol.


----------



## basilio

Thanks for the overview Smurf.  It does put all the terminology into clearer,simpler language.

And it highlights some of the verbal sleight of hand used by companies to puff their prospects.


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> How does a company right this thinking? Engage in a good news media campaign of there own! Stunts and Gimmicks and HELLOOOO positive news exposure left right and center. Give a nice rounded figure and let the media run with it, heralding it as the coming of the next era . As far as I'm concerned I fined the recent positive news exposure as fighting fire with fire. Personal I have far more faith in someone who knows the ways of the world and is willing to get down and get dirty for the company. Never let to many facts get in the way of a good story. I'd rather see actual tankers carting loads off to the service stations right around the nation. But for now I've bought the dream (1.25-1.14-.75 -.65 -.62 -.57 and .69 on the way up) my retirement depends on it.
> 
> That said, if i see the head kahuna selling off any of his tidy little nest egg I might start questioning his motives! Until then I'll remain a L/T shareholder.




Tezzad, we can see by your purchases that you are excited by all the rampant news. However don't confuse the    "$20 Trillion" headlines with anything the Company said.

Also, far from selling any of his shares PB bought 500,000 in Dec 2012.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-453.pdf

Great post, Smurf.


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> Great post, Smurf.




Yep!
And thanks BRTY too for genuinly sound comments.
Gap and round number support at around $2 take it and see if it breaks down again.


----------



## skc

Smurf1976 said:


> A bit of terminology in "layman's terms" might be helpful here I think.




Great post Smurf... Thanks for the time and effort.



Smurf1976 said:


> Another way to understand is to use an analogy. Suppose that you categorised all alcohol into "shots of vodka equivalent" based on the alcohol content. It sounds good, until you realise that buying a few bottles of metho will get the numbers up much more quickly than if you bought decent wine instead. It's a chemical-based measurement which takes no account of any other factors.




Great analogy. Also important to note that BOE (from gas or whatever) certainly doesn't have the same price as actual oil. Just like your 3 bottles of metho may be equivalent to 10 bottles of Penfold Grange in alcohol content. but the price would be slightly different.


----------



## Tyler Durden

Already back down to $2.15. I'm willing to bet a few mums and dads who bought based on the newspaper headlines have lost a bit now.


----------



## Smurf1976

skc said:


> Great analogy. Also important to note that BOE (from gas or whatever) certainly doesn't have the same price as actual oil. Just like your 3 bottles of metho may be equivalent to 10 bottles of Penfold Grange in alcohol content. but the price would be slightly different.



Here's some current price figures. All are expressed as price on a "barrel of oil equivalent" basis. So the price for gas, is the price for 1 BOE of gas.

Actual oil or condensate is worth about $111 per BOE in this part of the world (there are countries, notably the US, where the price tends to be lower and prices there are often quoted in Australian media).

Propane and Butane are worth about $114 per BOE at present. Typically there is a difference in price for those two gases, but at the moment they are coincidentally priced the same.

Propane - that's the stuff in cylinders used to run BBQ's and for gas supply to households, businesses and industry where mains gas isn't available. It also has uses in the manufacture of plastics and various chemicals. In common language in Australia, it's LPG or LP Gas. Americans just call it propane. 

Butane - this is mixed with propane in Autogas (automotive LPG). It is also the main contents of those aerosol-type camping gas cylinders and is the fuel in disposable cigarette lighters. In some countries it is used in the same way we use propane here as "bottled gas" for cooking, hot water etc. It also has petrochemical uses.

Natural gas is different in that most of it is sold under long term (in some cases very long term - several decades) contracts rather than on a spot price or shorter term contract basis as is the case with the other liquids and gases. That means there is no one price, and contract prices do vary quite a lot in Australia. But depending what assumptions you make about quantity, duration of contract etc it's worth $20 to $50 per BOE. A complicating factor is that the cost of delivery can be substantial, and depending on circumstances may be either a cost incurred by the customer or alternatively reflected in lower pricing to the supplier (the latter would apply where there is competition from other sources of gas closer to the point of use).

So overall:

Oil = $111 or thereabouts with the price constantly changing.

Propane and Butane = $114, also subject to change (Saudi Aramco dominates pricing and they set prices monthly)

Natural gas = $20 to $50 assuming they can find a market. Potentially a lot less if there's a need to build new pipes to get it to a customer. If there's only a small deposit, its' value might be literally zero since it's not worth the cost of a pipeline.

In terms of the value of any production Linc might bring about, it's the oil, condensate and LPG that has definite value and a definite ability to sell it (since it's easily transported and sold on the open market). Natural gas is more problematic, more uncertain and less valuable.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Low of $1.795 is close to the 50% Fib retrace at $1.76 (approx).


----------



## Mr Z

By my weekly chart there is longer term support in the 1.72 to 1.96 range. The mid point being 1.84 and often the focal point. Closing above 1.84 on a weekly basis would be desirable here, buying should emerge at these levels if history is any guide.


----------



## basilio

I think LNC is roughly where it should be right now. The big  surge  on the back of the shale  oil announcement was , IMO, a puff job.

There are certainly some good things happening and hopefully more news in the near future. So we should see a steady revaluing of the share based on more realistic  announcements.  I believe the wild swings of the past couple of weeks have probably been more damaging than helpful to investors views on the stability of the company. It has looked more like a market for fast players and spivs.


----------



## notting

basilio said:


> I think LNC is roughly where it should be right now. The big  surge  on the back of the shale  oil announcement was , IMO, a puff job.




"Comapany Insights" certainly do better for the share price than "Company Reports"

Not sure if I want to go again, but probably will.


----------



## Tyler Durden

$2.05 today.

I know I called a retrace, but even I did not think it would be this big. I was gonna buy in at $2 but seeing this, I'm staying on the sidelines


----------



## Mr Z

It needs to bounce around the high 1's say ~ $2 for a while until the crowd get used to the altitude. We ran WAY to hard, this thing needs to get its breath back. There should be reasonable opportunity to buy in the support range and at a level that offers a tight and logical stoploss price.


----------



## notting

Tried to go short again at 2.15 but missed it.
Would have had the stop quickly in at 2.14 had I got it simply because the upside volatility is still very possible amidst all the hyped up believers, especially as it has got its leg back over 2.
But as I write I still think it's a joke.
It actually had quite a strong day today given most of the sector was down and it started up!
"Company Insight" announcement that seemed more like a stop loss attempt may have helped.
Onward and downward.


----------



## Smurf1976

I am now out of this stock as it no longer matches my risk profile.

Maybe it will end up a goer, maybe it won't, but one of my investment rules is to avoid any company of a speculative nature which has come to mainstream attention. I used the recent media fuelled surge as an opportunity to sell.


----------



## Mr Z

notting said:


> Tried to go short again at 2.15 but missed it.
> Would have had the stop quickly in at 2.14 had I got it simply because the ...




A 1c stop????????? 

What serious trader does that?!

Oh gimme a break....

Short @ 2.15 with a 1c stop is 2.16!!!!!!

You are gunna rip it right off my friend!!! but keep pulling.


----------



## Mr Z

Smurf1976 said:


> I am now out of this stock as it no longer matches my risk profile.
> 
> Maybe it will end up a goer, maybe it won't, but one of my investment rules is to avoid any company of a speculative nature which has come to mainstream attention. I used the recent media fuelled surge as an opportunity to sell.




That I can respect....!


----------



## dogeatdog

Smurf1976 said:


> I am now out of this stock as it no longer matches my risk profile.
> 
> Maybe it will end up a goer, maybe it won't, but one of my investment rules is to avoid any company of a speculative nature which has come to mainstream attention. I used the recent media fuelled surge as an opportunity to sell.




So Smurf, you were long LNC through former publicity events? (Diesel dash etc) 
Linc certainly has always been a "speculative" play, and IMHO, PB certainly uses the media to enhance the image
of LNC.
I do wonder how many new retail are now trapped" long in the $3 range.
And like you Smurf, I'm on the sidelines, as this stock has enough short term news pending to make it a risky short play, as well as many skeptics which could drive it much further south.


----------



## Tezzad

Just wondering what the brains-trust thinks is a fair price for the stock? (regardless of whether your in or out) We all appear to have our own way of evaluating LNC. Would be interesting to see if we are all on the same page or if some of us are reading a different book. Currently with all the evidence I have at hand IMO 2.10- 2.20 is where it should be. Increases from here on in should be underpinned by earnings growth even-though I do enjoy the occasional HEADLINE.


Just notice quite high over night volumes in the US.


----------



## notting

Tezzad said:


> Just wondering what the brains-trust thinks is a fair price for the stock? Currently with all the evidence I have at hand IMO 2.10- 2.20 is where it should be.



I'd subtract the debt from shares on issue multiplied by the stock price at x 1.51
If I was looking for a long short term trade, I might have crack at aound 1.60.


----------



## notting

notting said:


> If I was looking for a long short term trade, I might have crack at aound 1.60.



 Sorry I meant to say short term trade!!!
I'm yet to believe in this company, beyond it's ability to extract funds out of shareholders and lend against them!


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad, I don't think that increases over $2.20 will be based on earnings growth solely. There is much good news to come in the short term that, in time, will lead to earnings growth. But it is that good news that will drive the S/P up.

Based on closely watching the S/P movement over the last 9 or 10 months, learning from expert technical analysts such as MrZ, and various other research, I consider the following-

1. There is a 20% chance that the S/P will (at least temporary) fall below $2.00
2. There is a 70% chance that the S/P will be $3.00 by 30 Jun 13
3. There is  a 30% chance that the S/P will be over $5.00 by 31 Dec 13

 so at present I consider a fair S/P to be $2.80

All IMHO.

NB. at present the S/P is $2.31 on sales of 6M


----------



## Smurf1976

dogeatdog said:


> So Smurf, you were long LNC through former publicity events? (Diesel dash etc)
> Linc certainly has always been a "speculative" play, and IMHO, PB certainly uses the media to enhance the image
> of LNC.
> I do wonder how many new retail are now trapped" long in the $3 range.
> And like you Smurf, I'm on the sidelines, as this stock has enough short term news pending to make it a risky short play, as well as many skeptics which could drive it much further south.



My basic logic is that if a small company based in Brisbane, which is of a speculative nature, is mainstream news via every media outlet here in Tasmania and the price has already surged then there can't be too many people anywhere in the country who haven't heard about it. If someone is going to buy in on a speculative basis then they had almost certainly done so by that point.

Everyone's already in and it's speculative = too much risk for me. That's not specific to Linc, I'd take the same approach with any company of this nature. Maybe there is profit to be made, but there's an awful lot of downside potential in the share price and it's not as though it produces reliable dividends or something like that.

Past experience has taught me to not continue holding speculative stocks that have already hit the news headlines and seen a price surge.


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> 2. There is a 70% chance that the S/P will be $3.00 by 30 Jun 13



Yep, techinically playing to that tune short term.
But arn't you a long term holder? 
Or are you going to take it at 3, or at least put a trailing stop in?


----------



## Skatter

This share is defiantly showing a bull and bear market which is great.  Im a noob at this but  my speculation is LNC spend more money that they make. Which you would think LNC would at least need a good deal within the next 12 months. Capital raising?, oil production above forcast? Just the time frames and combination seem a bit unreachable. Another thing. Are people changing there gaming tactics or do we have new players having a seat on this stock?


----------



## Mickel

LNC has a new presentation out -

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-465.pdf

On page 20 they mention they have in excess of  20 commercial opportunities under consideration with UCG.

On page 32 they have projected timelines for their various operations in 2013.
This includes a target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by the 4th Qtr and JV announcement for Shale Oil in the 3rd Qtr.

All positive but the S/P has had a wild ride so far today- opened $2.38 (up 7c), low $2.27 and high $2.42.
Currently $2.38 on sales of 4.5M


----------



## YELNATS

Skatter said:


> This share is defiantly showing a bull and bear market which is great.?




Interesting observation but what does it add to our understanding of LNC?


----------



## YELNATS

Mickel said:


> LNC has a new presentation out -
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-465.pdf
> 
> On page 20 they mention they have in excess of  20 commercial opportunities under consideration with UCG.
> 
> On page 32 they have projected timelines for their various operations in 2013.
> This includes a target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by the 4th Qtr and JV announcement for Shale Oil in the 3rd Qtr.
> 
> All positive but the S/P has had a wild ride so far today- opened $2.38 (up 7c), low $2.27 and high $2.42.
> Currently $2.38 on sales of 4.5M




Is there anything new in this or does it just summarise what we already know? Maybe LNC could be a takeover target sometime down the track. I wonder if this is a part of their strategy.

Cheers. I hold although a reduced tranche after their surge to near $3.


----------



## notting

YELNATS said:


> Maybe LNC could be a takeover target sometime down the track.




The psychiatric wards simply do not have that kind of capital.


----------



## Tezzad

Love this stock and hate it at the same time. As mentioned before Ive bought the dream. One should be emotionally detached from investment decisions. Could have made a tidy sum by selling at the top of the hype and bought back after the luster died away. Unfortunately didn't have the balls. Hats off to those who did. Good news stories are great but there's no substitute for tankers in service stations or ships full of coal. I hope they continue to forge on in the US as this still is there only tangible form of bankable income.

Interested in any other stock you guys may be keeping a watchful eye on? L/T Shareholder TeZ


----------



## Skatter

Get UMAIT drilled and bring on another partner(Asia)? or anything to spread the risk and share the cost. Same could be said for SA Shale and the right location for UCG. I then think spending will drop.


----------



## Smurf1976

Tezzad said:


> Good news stories are great but there's no substitute for tankers in service stations or ships full of coal. I hope they continue to forge on in the US as this still is there only tangible form of bankable income.



Indeed. There's a lot of hype and I like the company's ambitions. But in the real world, 20+ prospects are one thing, actually getting something up and running would give me (and others) far more confidence that it's all a goer.

It's like anything. Ambitious claims about anything are always suspect until at least some of them are actually delivered upon.


----------



## Tezzad

Hugh increase in volume in the US overnight, anyone got any idea why?


----------



## smalltimer

Looks like a big sales pitch going on in the US at the moment - Worth watching this video. 
As I said, bit of a sales pitch, but good info.

http://moneymappress.com/pro/ECLAus...1638&s=937070&u=52134857&l=542933&g=96&r=Milo


----------



## Tezzad

smalltimer said:


> Looks like a big sales pitch going on in the US at the moment - Worth watching this video.
> As I said, bit of a sales pitch, but good info.
> 
> http://moneymappress.com/pro/ECLAus...1638&s=937070&u=52134857&l=542933&g=96&r=Milo




Would be happy if a fraction of this comes true? If it is as significant a discovery as reported (which I think it could be) I don't think they will have any trouble finding  companies wanting to partake in ongoing partnerships. Until that time I remain hopeful but not over committed. I feel that this type of leaching is only the start. There will always be snouts looking for a troff.


----------



## notting

That video is the biggest load of s#!7 I have ever seen.
An* intelligene briefing*!!  This is a new low.
This is the worst company on the ASX in terms of the way it goes around trying to suck people in.
The name Bond is a name that continues to be poison for this country.
You realise these dickheads are both reading from scripts!!!


----------



## basilio

God that is  a scary story  !!  Every word screams out *Come in sucker !! and  SCAM!!* 

I can see how it will  create some instant interest in the  stock market as people start to move into the stocks mentioned and theefore create a rise.  

But that doesn't translate into a multi trillion dollar shale oil development.

One of the points I found most intriguing however was a reference to massive oil flows in the testing drills that seem to be the basis for the 233 BBOL predicted for the Basin.

I think Peter Bond has some explaining to do. If the deal is as good these guys say then we have been seriously under informed. But if as everyone else notes there is a long, long way to go before it is proven then this pitch is not kosher IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976

So continues the long running pattern of over the top hype with little or no substance.

These guys should be running nightclubs or organising festivals, such is their ability to hype things up to ridiculous extent. There is, of course, a bit of a difference in the consequences of ending up at an over-hyped club or festival versus saying that you're going to turn global economics and politics on its' head with massive implications. Several orders of magnitude difference.

I'm thinking there's more to this than meets the eye. Possibilities:

1. There is real potential and they are just trying whatever means they can to get funding. Possible but it's looking more and more suspect.

2. It's a scam as such. Nothing more and nothing less. Plausible and their actions are increasingly pointing this way.

3. The notion of a major new oil supply is being supported (whether true or not) by various other parties for ultimate ends which could include suppressing the oil price and/or making a credible threat toward Middle East nations. As such, they'd be quite happy to assist with the hype (and ensure that ASIC doesn't investigate). If you could pull it off then convincing the Saudi's that there's heaps of oil in Australia would be one sure way to stop them hiking prices too much I'd think.

#3 Is a conspiracy theory certainly, but it has occurred to me that it's not impossible. Unlikely, but something just ain't right with this company and the way it operates and that's about the only half-rational explanation I can think of other than it being an outright scam.


----------



## notting

Smurf1976 said:


> If you could pull it off then convincing the Saudi's that there's heaps of oil in Australia would be one sure way to stop them hiking prices too much I'd think.




No it wouldn't.  Prince Slimeface of Arabia would simply open his small change purse and buy LNC if there were a drop of truth to this rubbish.


----------



## dogeatdog

smalltimer said:


> Looks like a big sales pitch going on in the US at the moment - Worth watching this video.
> As I said, bit of a sales pitch, but good info.
> 
> http://moneymappress.com/pro/ECLAus...1638&s=937070&u=52134857&l=542933&g=96&r=Milo




Good find Smalltimer.
I can't see what all the fuss is about regarding these two muppets.
I receive these type of sales pitches on a daily basis from companies like "The Motley Fool", promising huge returns in return for an investment in "special reports".
It appears to me that Linc energy, although mentioned, didn't necessarily have any input.
Only time will tell if, and how much O&G is in the ground, and economically extractable. 
Linc remains a speculative play, and I for one am hesitant to jump back on board.


----------



## Smurf1976

The reason for the fuss is the "here we go again" factor.

The amount of hype this company has either attracted or created of its' own accord is way out of proportion to anything the company has actually achieved. That it is consistent and at least partly being driven by the company itself rings a few alarm bells.

Maybe it's legit. Maybe.....


----------



## Cradled Gold

Smurf1976 said:


> So continues the long running pattern of over the top hype with little or no substance.
> 
> These guys should be running nightclubs or organising festivals, such is their ability to hype things up to ridiculous extent. There is, of course, a bit of a difference in the consequences of ending up at an over-hyped club or festival versus saying that you're going to turn global economics and politics on its' head with massive implications. Several orders of magnitude difference.
> 
> I'm thinking there's more to this than meets the eye. Possibilities:
> 
> 1. There is real potential and they are just trying whatever means they can to get funding. Possible but it's looking more and more suspect.
> 
> 2. It's a scam as such. Nothing more and nothing less. Plausible and their actions are increasingly pointing this way.
> 
> 3. The notion of a major new oil supply is being supported (whether true or not) by various other parties for ultimate ends which could include suppressing the oil price and/or making a credible threat toward Middle East nations. As such, they'd be quite happy to assist with the hype (and ensure that ASIC doesn't investigate). If you could pull it off then convincing the Saudi's that there's heaps of oil in Australia would be one sure way to stop them hiking prices too much I'd think.
> 
> #3 Is a conspiracy theory certainly, but it has occurred to me that it's not impossible. Unlikely, but something just ain't right with this company and the way it operates and that's about the only half-rational explanation I can think of other than it being an outright scam.




Read up a bit on Linc at ASX...looked up extraction cost of oil shale...there may be the oil there at what they suggest. However, the extraction costs are so great it seems like it may just sit there until they can figure out a financially feasible and ecological means to 'go for it'. 

I will not be investing at this point, in spite of the hype...give me a better rationale to buy in rather than emotional hype and show me how it is possible to extract it at a cost equal to the liquid gold and will then consider it!


----------



## Tezzad

I must admit I'm a little disappointed that there was absolutely no mention of free Steak Knives???


----------



## Skatter

dumping and pumping tactics by the credit Suisse. to increase stock volume for traders to open there wallets wider.


----------



## Country Lad

Skatter said:


> dumping and pumping tactics by the credit Suisse. to increase stock volume for traders to open there wallets wider.




Skatter, I would like to know how you arrived at that view.  Over the last 7 trading days for which the broker details are available, Credit Suisse have accounted for only 4.9% of the turnover spread over the days trading each day.  Seems hardly enough to influence the price.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Smurf1976

Tezzad said:


> I must admit I'm a little disappointed that there was absolutely no mention of free Steak Knives???



But wait! There's more!



Seriously, I think the point here is that there's a gap between the hype and reality thus far. This stock is highly speculative in my opinion.


----------



## basilio

What irks me about this situation is that LNC does have (IMO) a number of excellent resource and technology opportunities. The Adani coal sale  still stands to deliver some big royalties. The UCG technology is good and hopefully will be commercialized soon. The oil and gas divisions are now  going ahead. The fuel cells are progressing nicely.

This oil shale deal was always a relatively small speculative part of LNCs portfolio. To have it promoted out of this world seems self destructive.


----------



## Skatter

Country Lad said:


> Skatter, I would like to know how you arrived at that view.  Over the last 7 trading days for which the broker details are available, Credit Suisse have accounted for only 4.9% of the turnover spread over the days trading each day.  Seems hardly enough to influence the price.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Yes you probably right!
Volume shows this tactic isn't working too well either.


----------



## Tezzad

What's happening up in QLD are we ever going to produce any more diesel than it takes for one car to drive across the country? From what I understand LNC has jumped through every hoop ticked every box and kissed every frog and the QLD government is still yet to make a decision either way. No wonder most of our best ideas end up producing profits for other countries!!!


----------



## So_Cynical

Guys, just for a bit of perspective.

Chevron has agreed to a farm in agreement with BPT (349m) for a 60% stake in BPT's Shale project in the cooper basin.

So the facts are that 


 Major global players are interested in Aussie shale
 The deep shale in Central Aust has gas in large intersections (proven by BPT)


----------



## Smurf1976

So_Cynical said:


> Major global players are interested in Aussie shale
> The deep shale in Central Aust has *gas* in large intersections (proven by BPT)



Emphasis mine.

Gas they will probably find I don't doubt that. It's the notion of 200+ billion barrels of oil that could be considered pure guesswork at best. The world's largest oil field by far, and on a continent that is prospective primarily for gas rather than oil. Hmm.....

That Chevron, an "oil" company that has well and truly jumped on the gas bandwagon, adds to this notion.

There's nothing wrong with finding gas of course, although it's a lot less valuable than oil.


----------



## Tezzad

It would appear that the punters in the US have taken the bait. Last 4 trading days volumes have been through the roof. Do the Muppet's have more cred than we have given them? Or are the yanks looser with their dough?


----------



## tinhat

Tezzad said:


> It would appear that the punters in the US have taken the bait. Last 4 trading days volumes have been through the roof. Do the Muppet's have more cred than we have given them? Or are the yanks looser with their dough?




Interesting. It hasn't moved the share price though.

http://www.otcqx.com/qx/market/quote?symbol=LNCGY


----------



## Mickel

tinhat said:


> Interesting. It hasn't moved the share price though.
> 
> http://www.otcqx.com/qx/market/quote?symbol=LNCGY




Tinny, I'm not sure if you're saying it hasn't moved in the US (it did by 3.62%) or here.

If it was here you spoke too soon. LNC has hit an intraday high of $2.55 and is currently $2.53 on turnover of 5.6m shares.


----------



## basilio

LNC is powering on. Currently up 22c to 2.55 !!

Wonder if it's because AFC announced they were opening  an office in South Korea.

Or something even bigger ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> LNC is powering on. Currently up 22c to 2.55 !!
> 
> Wonder if it's because AFC announced they were opening  an office in South Korea.
> 
> Or something even bigger ?




Bas, there has been a lot of media talk in the US about LNC, particularily regarding wild statements of 233B boo from shale.

From the LNC website we know that LNC are presenting at the ASX small caps presentation in New York today and also London next week. Also LNCGY was up over 3% last night in the US. I'm sure this has much to do with the rise. I hope they take the shale find in a positive light after the presentation, which surely will hose down some  of the more outlandish claims (ie $20Trillion).

Hope we get another surge from the London presentation next week.

This is the detail for the presentation- 

http://www.asx.com.au/smalltomidcaps/newyork/Comp profile_LNC.pdf


----------



## Tezzad

:Love attending the party but I know there's inevitably a hangover the next day:frown:


----------



## Skatter

More buyers in the queue today than sellers.  I'm wanting to see next change in substantial holding announcement before getting too excited by today's price.
Interesting to see what this stock does in the US tonight.


----------



## dogeatdog

Tezzad said:


> It would appear that the punters in the US have taken the bait. Last 4 trading days volumes have been through the roof. Do the Muppet's have more cred than we have given them? Or are the yanks looser with their dough?




Linc SP trading above US$30 as I write. That's an increase of just under 24%.
(currently not an LNC share holder)


----------



## Tezzad

Aussie punters are lining up!!! Can we get above $3. Getting above probably not the problem, holding there?? still need more than just pisssss and wind :whip


----------



## basilio

Tezzad said:


> Aussie punters are lining up!!! Can we get above $3. Getting above probably not the problem, holding there?? still need more than just pisssss and wind :whip




Not enough bunnies for the boiler mate...

Unless there actually is a serious announcement in the offing this was (IMO) a quick pump and dump.


----------



## Tezzad

Are well it was an amusing spectator sport briefly. Back to the real world. Got to go and earn actual dollars I can spend. Hopefully by the end of the day another set of mugs come in and give me a reason to simile over the week end. Hopefully something concrete out of the US. I'll even settle for something CRUDE. :horse:


----------



## Skatter

Shaking out the profit takers today, there gone for now. Im still happy at finishing at 2.50. Now depends on US stock again tonight to see if they pull back to our level. half year report on the 17th? still interesting times to come.  Linc still need to address with UK market so we will assess how Linc performs then


----------



## onward

Tezzad said:


> :Love attending the party but I know there's inevitably a hangover the next day:frown:




Maybe well worth the pain


----------



## Tezzad

What is the criteria to make it into the various ASX lists. LNCs' share price has improved considerably, whether justified or not it has remained above the $2 mark which with my mathematical genius puts it above 1 bill. So where will it stand in the 'P' ing Comp. Haven't seen any obvious increases in substantial holdings as such and if it does get a seat at one of the big boys tables when do they have to start showing an interest?


----------



## skc

Tezzad said:


> What is the criteria to make it into the various ASX lists. LNCs' share price has improved considerably, whether justified or not it has remained above the $2 mark which with my mathematical genius puts it above 1 bill. So where will it stand in the 'P' ing Comp. Haven't seen any obvious increases in substantial holdings as such and if it does get a seat at one of the big boys tables when do they have to start showing an interest?




LNC only just got the boot from ASX 200 not too long ago (Dec 2012) so I wouldn't expect a speedy return despite a much improved market cap. I am sure the S&P website has the actual criteria somewhere.


----------



## Mickel

Tezzad said:


> What is the criteria to make it into the various ASX lists. LNCs' share price has improved considerably, whether justified or not it has remained above the $2 mark which with my mathematical genius puts it above 1 bill. So where will it stand in the 'P' ing Comp. Haven't seen any obvious increases in substantial holdings as such and if it does get a seat at one of the big boys tables when do they have to start showing an interest?




This is from Wikipedia- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P/ASX_200

"The ASX 200 is capitalization-weighted, meaning a company's contribution to the index is relative to its total market value i.e. share price x number of tradeable shares. The ASX 200 is also float adjusted, meaning the absolute numerical contribution to the index is relative to the stock's value at the float of the stock.[3]

Although the calculation starts with a sum of the market capitalisation of the constituent stocks, it's intended to reflect changes in share price, NOT market capitalisation. Therefore a fudge factor called the "Divisor" is used to ensure that the index value only changes when stock prices change, not whenever market capitalisation changes. For example, if a company increases its market capitalisation by issuing new shares, the Divisor is adjusted so that the ASX 200 index value does not change."

I understand that "tradeable shares" excludes Bondy's 200M shares so that makes a big difference in Market Capitalisation.


----------



## Mickel

A Good News Story-



Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC) said it’s been contacted by about 70 companies from North America to India to fund the development of shale oil prospects in central Australia. 

“You’ve got the majors, but at the same token a lot of second-tier groups with big checkbooks,” Peter Bond, chief executive officer of the Brisbane-based company, said in an interview. “We’ve had about 70 inquiries.” 



http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...alian-shale-assets-draw-70-potential-partners


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> “You’ve got the majors, but at the same token a lot of second-tier groups with big checkbooks,” Peter Bond, chief executive officer of the Brisbane-based company, said in an interview. “We’ve had about 70 inquiries.”




Yeah the 70 companies were probably ringing LNC and screaming down the phone at them demanding LNC to stop harassing them with telemarketing, hawkers, promo emails and other stunts.

Guess you could call that kind of contact from companies with "big checkbooks - inquiries".


----------



## Cradled Gold

Mickel said:


> This is from Wikipedia- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P/ASX_200
> 
> "The ASX 200 is capitalization-weighted, meaning a company's contribution to the index is relative to its total market value i.e. share price x number of tradeable shares. The ASX 200 is also float adjusted, meaning the absolute numerical contribution to the index is relative to the stock's value at the float of the stock.[3]
> 
> Although the calculation starts with a sum of the market capitalisation of the constituent stocks, it's intended to reflect changes in share price, NOT market capitalisation. Therefore a fudge factor called the "Divisor" is used to ensure that the index value only changes when stock prices change, not whenever market capitalisation changes. For example, if a company increases its market capitalisation by issuing new shares, the Divisor is adjusted so that the ASX 200 index value does not change."
> 
> I understand that "tradeable shares" excludes Bondy's 200M shares so that makes a big difference in Market Capitalisation.




View attachment Linc Suncorp screendump.docx


I was sent this screendump...my biggest concern is that this run on Linc is a 'pump and dump' and the shares are obviously over priced! Wonder when the 'big boys' who are generating this hype will realize their price and then dump them...leaving those who bought in at the higher price wondering what went wrong..."do I sell now or wait for them to rise again like Lazarus waiting for the Saviour to breath life into them." 
Having said that, I do believe that IF the amount of oil shale is there, it is worth investing in...when the fever has broken and reality is once again reigning in the emotional moves on Linc.


----------



## Cradled Gold

For those who cannot read the screendump that I posted in the above message, it shows the SunCorp model value of Linc shares as of 1week ago...$1.07. The .15cent jump in shares today is almost farcical if it were not for the fact that people are 'buying into' the relentless hype that is going on right now regarding these shares. Now, I do like the looks of the company but, I have no desire to buy in when they are pumped up over their actual value...a bit like a Fed line of twaddle ... So, I am going to call the bluff on their hand and wait for them to drop over the next few months ...like most of the shares these guys 'sell us on emotional hype'...:

holysheep:


----------



## notting

It's achieved a tech breakout and managed to hang above it with 5 weak closes in a row!
Today was quite positive with high close and decent participation.
This points toward a short term run toward 3 resistance.  
There may be alot of suckers who baught the spin still waiting to get out there!
If it gets past 3 it could get a weak run higher.
Crazy but.
Sitting back patiently for weak volume to show in the run, then I'll drop my piano on it!


----------



## Skatter

No sell offs mean investors are buying in. **** for shorters but great for holders. common sense probably. I am not worried about Monday but believe me it could sit up for a while into the early afternoon keeping an eye of the US market to see what happens there.
I would believe the volume will be up but just not sure what the price will do. Will be profit taking there and they are already ahead of us on the 10.1 so they may even have a very small pull back, then again they may blitz everything


----------



## Tezzad

notting said:


> Sitting back patiently for weak volume to show in the run, then I'll drop my piano on it!




One day we will have to get together and measure pianos. 

Wish I had the nerve to jump out and hop back in, I haven't got enough hair? Just had a look at the form from the US, volumes are pretty impressive. 154k equating to about $45m. It would appear that the yanks all want a piece of the Cinderella Story. I still would like to see tankers driving out the gates with something we can sell, for real dollars for actual profit???         :whip 

(I too do suffer from the occasional bout of Lixdexcia)


----------



## notting

Tezzad said:


> One day we will have to get together and measure pianos.



Why?
If you drop a baby grand off a 100 story building at the same time as a grand, which one will hit the ground first? 
The fall will be simultaneous.  Only one will be more expensive than the other.

*Small man big man complex* and other *Bond* like issues aside -



Tezzad said:


> Wish I had the nerve to jump out and hop back in



Why?  
The vast majority that do tend support those who don’t.
Those that overwhelmingly succeed in the market over the longer term do so on things that deliver genuine inflation + interest beating return on capital over the medium to longer term without having to jump in and out, hardly at all.  
Oh, I see, LNC will never do that.  
So yeah jumping in and out is a better option.  
Trade the spin.
Good point.



Tezzad said:


> I just had a look at the form from the US, volumes are pretty impressive. 154k equating to about $45m. It would appear that the yanks all want a piece of the Cinderella Story.







Tezzad said:


> I still would like to see tankers driving out the gates with something *we* can sell, for real dollars for actual profit???




We:

Still’s the word alright.  
  :whip 

Holders will *still* be reciting that mantra in 7 years time after having their holdings meaningfully liquidated if they have been suckered in with it for all that time - *Still no tankers, still not tankers*.....................................................................................

Guess the Great bull market after the great recession could save them.

For now -





It's as gooda trend as any.


----------



## Mickel

Some facts-

US market finished Thurs at US$27.45 which equates to A$2.69 per LNC share.
Aussie market finished at $2.70 on Friday.

US market finished Fri at US$28.87 which equates to A$2.83 per LNC share.

Aussie market on Monday  ???

This LNC presentation in New York  recently became available yesterday. Of particular interest, regarding the Shale asset in Sth Aust, the presenter Anthony Watson stated that LNC would be looking for a cash return as well as a JV partner coughing up money for exploration, while retaining a minority interest.

http://www.brrmedia.com/event/110294/partner/couriermail

So when a JV agreement is announced, LNC could get a cash injection of  hundreds of millions of dollars while retaining a 20% or 30% stake.

If such an announcement were made the S/P would rocket ahead much more then the worth of the cash injection, as it would signify that a major company with deep pockets was very confident of profitable oil extraction.

Such an announcement is not likely before June 13, but anyone not on board by then may miss the LNC boat altogether. Of course with so many other good announcements in the pipeline, the S/P may be over $4 by June, even before the Shale announcement.

IMHO.


----------



## Skatter

Mickel said:


> Some facts-
> 
> US market finished Thurs at US$27.45 which equates to A$2.69 per LNC share.
> Aussie market finished at $2.70 on Friday.
> 
> US market finished Fri at US$28.87 which equates to A$2.83 per LNC share.
> 
> Aussie market on Monday  ???
> 
> This LNC presentation in New York  recently became available yesterday. Of particular interest, regarding the Shale asset in Sth Aust, the presenter Anthony Watson stated that LNC would be looking for a cash return as well as a JV partner coughing up money for exploration, while retaining a minority interest.
> 
> http://www.brrmedia.com/event/110294/partner/couriermail
> 
> So when a JV agreement is announced, LNC could get a cash injection of  hundreds of millions of dollars while retaining a 20% or 30% stake.
> 
> If such an announcement were made the S/P would rocket ahead much more then the worth of the cash injection, as it would signify that a major company with deep pockets was very confident of profitable oil extraction.
> 
> Such an announcement is not likely before June 13, but anyone not on board by then may miss the LNC boat altogether. Of course with so many other good announcements in the pipeline, the S/P may be over $4 by June, even before the Shale announcement.
> 
> IMHO.




All I can say with that all "just" hope for more accumulators coming into the game to solidify a floor price. In other words. hold onto your hats ladies


----------



## Mickel

LNC spuds first well at Umiat-

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130311/pdf/42dkt8vv5267td.pdf

LNC drilling program was delayed with the cold and windy weather in Alaska. However, they now look like finishing their planned drilling program by deferring drilling of the disposal well to next year and using alternative disposal methods this year.

The next well  to be drilled will be a horizontal one which will then be flow tested. If the flow test shows 50,000 bpd as expected, the S/P will jump massively (perhaps $2).

A good start to the week !

Already up 11c to $2.81


----------



## princeplanet

Hit $3 today, with far bigger news still to come.....


----------



## Tezzad

princeplanet said:


> Hit $3 today, with far bigger news still to come.....




I have to admit it's a lot more fun watching the up side knowing your butt is well and truly covered. Just about lost all my hair watching and buying on the down side. Will be good to see the same sort of volumes in the US over night as there was on Friday. It does feel like one good concrete announcement and it will take off. (Holding my skirt and hat in anticipation) 

Arrrre Notting we have been here before??? Haven't we?? Maybe a little dejavu!!!    :whip


----------



## Mickel

Very good day for LNC today with S/P rising 25c to $2.95, after hitting an intraday high of $3.03, on turnover of 15.6 m shares.

Mr Z, do you have an updated technical view on the LNC S/P ?

I would appreciate your views.


----------



## princeplanet

Mickel said:


> Very good day for LNC today with S/P rising 25c to $2.95, after hitting an intraday high of $3.03, on turnover of 15.6 m shares.
> 
> Mr Z, do you have an updated technical view on the LNC S/P ?
> 
> I would appreciate your views.




If Mr Z doesn't answer, then perhaps google  "topstocks LNC"  for a lengthy discussion with some big players. Some may be rampers, but I'm sure you'll spot them!......


----------



## skivvy

I too would appreciate Mr Z' Tech Analysis view on this one.  I can admit to selling part of my holdings at 2.99 on Monday as I felt that the resistance at 3.00 was a point for consolidation. My ta view was that there was an equal drive pattern from 2.25 to 2.75 and the next move would be from 2.50 to 3.00 ish, hence my part profit take at 2.99. The RSI also looked over bought to me on Monday.  I am looking to top up again on a pull back to 2.75 or lower if it comes back, which I believe it will.
The thing with this stock is sometimes the news just keeps getting better and the TA is out the window, but I need to stick to my learnings and apply my TA. Good luck to all long term holders like Mickel and others.

Disc: stock held


----------



## Skatter

I can't find an American forum that's talking about this stock. The Ann was pretty plain so this will be time for LNC to find its floor price. Gives us time to look at other stocks and follow what there doing


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Or are you going to take it at 3, or at least put a trailing stop in?
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4010&p=754210&viewfull=1#post754210




Hope people did take it at 3, as it's the worst performer today out of the ones I whatch in the space!
But not willing to short just yet.


----------



## Mickel

skivvy said:


> The thing with this stock is sometimes the news just keeps getting better and the TA is out the window, but I need to stick to my learnings and apply my TA. Good luck to all long term holders like Mickel and others.
> 
> Disc: stock held




Hi Skivvy

I would apreciate a private message from you regarding how you apply your TA.

Thanks 

Mickel


----------



## basilio

AFC has released its Annual Report.  The progress on its fuel cells is very impressive. LNC holds a 12% interest in AFC, has a seat on the Board and its UCG process is a prime candidate for widespread  use of clean, cost competitive,  coal produced energy.

Very keen to see when and where  the first UCG/fuell Cell operation is started.

http://www.afcenergy.com/_userfiles/pages/files/AFC Energy plc Annual Report and Accounts 2012.pdf


----------



## skivvy

Good find Basilio, thanks for posting the link.

Reinforces how diversified Linc are.  
They are drilling the first Umiat well quickly, little bump back up for the SP today.
I missed the Ann and the re-entry, will see if it can hold above 2.70 next week.


----------



## Mickel

Two announcements out on Friday-

1. The latest on drilling at Umiat- 

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-470.pdf

Everyone is very happy with the first few days of drilling. The big news will be when they get the flow test results from the 2nd well (the horizontal one).

2. The half yearly accounts-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-471.pdf

Nothing appears untoward but the critical financials will be the next 2 quarters IMO as they need to increase revenue too be self supporting.


----------



## notting

After 16 years of loss making and mining share holders, nothing appears to be untoward other than -



Mickel said:


> they need to increase revenue too be self supporting.



:silly:



Mickel said:


> Nothing appears untoward




Naa it’s all good.
Bond and co have done very well over LNCs 16 years of loss making.
All it took was one great discovery - the stock market!

Where's my hard hat? It's time for a photo.


----------



## Mickel

notting said:


> After 16 years of loss making and mining share holders, nothing appears to be untoward other than -
> 
> :silly:
> 
> 
> 
> Naa it’s all good.
> Bond and co have done very well over LNCs 16 years of loss making.
> All it took was one great discovery - the stock market!
> 
> Where's my hard hat? It's time for a photo.




Notting, it's obvious from your comments that you haven't followed the LINC strategy with oil and gas. 

Stating that you're "dyslexic" is no excuse if you are to make constructive comments on a stock, rather than sarcastic  ones.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> Notting, it's obvious from your comments that you haven't followed the LINC strategy with oil and gas.
> 
> Stating that you're "dyslexic" is no excuse if you are to make constructive comments on a stock, rather than sarcastic  ones.




Ditto that Mickel


----------



## Tezzad

Lets hope we get a little more to read this week? Took the opportunity to do a little topping up over the last week. Hopefully just in time for the next hiddyup? :whip


----------



## Mickel

Good preliminary news from LNC regarding the Umiat drilling program-
drilled through a 100ft oil reservoir.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-472.pdf

S/P hit a high of $2.84 but is now at $2.76 (up 6c) on turnover of 1.87M shares.

There was also some speculation in the "Citybeat" column of the Courier Mail last week that Qld Govt legislation on UCG is imminent. 
Could be a good week to finish the quarter !


----------



## dogeatdog

Hmm, could be interesting. Trading halt! :bad:


----------



## dogeatdog

dogeatdog said:


> Hmm, could be interesting. Trading halt! :bad:




Trading halt in place until next Tuesday, or until a "material fund raising" announcement is made by the company.

Your thoughts people?


----------



## Jason695

dogeatdog said:


> Trading halt in place until next Tuesday, or until a "material fund raising" announcement is made by the company.
> 
> Your thoughts people?




Could be dilutive!  Why does a company with professed substantial coal assets (*soon* to be sold - well ... fairly soon - well .... surely some time or other) need to raise capital?


----------



## skyQuake

Page 2 of announcement, dot point 1: Material capital raising

Looks like a conv bond issue - out  a few minutes ago on via Dow Jones Newswires


----------



## Mickel

skyQuake said:


> Page 2 of announcement, dot point 1: Material capital raising
> 
> Looks like a conv bond issue - out  a few minutes ago on via Dow Jones Newswires




Here is a report on a possible Convertible Bond Issue from WSJ-

"Australia’s Linc Energy Ltd. LNC.AU  is attempting to raise about US$200 million through an issue of convertible bonds, two people familiar with the raising said Wednesday.

The bond issue is being managed by Credit Suisse and will convert to equity in 2018, the people said. The funds will be used to develop the company’s assets, one of the people said. Linc owns coal and oil assets, mostly in Australia and North America."

http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaus...eks-around-200-million-from-convertible-bond/


----------



## notting

Jason695 said:


> Could be dilutive!  Why does a company with professed substantial coal assets (*soon* to be sold - well ... fairly soon - well .... surely some time or other) need to raise capital?




Why? Because they sell nursery rhymes and 



> Bond and co have done very well over LNCs 16 years of loss making.
> All it took was one great discovery - the stock market!




You just witnessed one of the greatest ramps in history moving into a* capital raising*.


----------



## Mickel

Further update on the Convertible Bond issue-

"Australia’s Linc Energy Ltd., a coal and oil producer, is attempting to raise at least US$200 million in an issue of unsecured convertible notes, according to a term sheet seen by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

The funds raised will be used to develop the company’s assets, a person familiar with the matter said. Linc owns coal and oil assets, mostly in Australia and North America.

The issue is being managed by Credit Suisse and its size can be increased by US$50 million, the term sheet said.

The notes will convert to equity in April 2018 at a price of 3.40-3.54 Australian dollars (US$3.56-A$3.71) a share, representing a premium of 27.3%-32.6% to the stock’s last traded price of A$2.67. The conversion price can be lowered by a maximum of 20% of the initial conversion price.

Linc can offer to buy back the notes, which are fixed at an exchange rate of US$1.0463 per A$1.00, from April 2015."

http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaus...n-from-convertible-bond/?KEYWORDS=linc+energy

Looks like good news to me. Not a done deal yet, though.


----------



## basilio

Market has turned on a sixpence for LNC this morning. DOWN  11%.

I agree that the capital raising looks clever and will be very useful.  Any thoughts on change of sentiment ? 
(There have been comments on another forum that the earlier sharp increases in the SP had been fuelled by Credit Suisse who then sold the finance deal - and have now taken a profit on the earlier push ..)


----------



## dogeatdog

Deal for convertible bonds just confirmed on the Linc web site.
SP down to A$2.31, a 13% decline from opening as I write.
The roller coaster ride continues.
(LNC share holder)


----------



## skivvy

I was happy to buy more at the 2.25 support level on Thursday and will look to buy more in the future.  It's an investor story for me and this looks to be on sale so I am happy to commit some more $$ for the long term.  Key thing is to see if the support can hold and what future news reports will be announced.


----------



## Mickel

Uncertain times for LNC S/P since issue of Convertible Bonds.

LNC started trading again on 28 Mar after announcement of issue of $200M CBs.

Short sales on 28 Mar were 6.3M. You can check daily short sales here - 

https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...lectionID=68&SortField=dInDate&SortOrder=Desc

It was reported that 60% ($120M) of the CBs were allocated to Hedge Funds.

There is some talk of Hedge Funds  using both short sales and CBs as an artbitrage strategy.

I am no expert but here are some references that explain the strategy-


http://www.barclayhedge.com/researc...edge-fund-strategy-convertible-arbitrage.html

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/convertible-bond-arbitrage.asp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convertible_arbitrage

It has also been reported that PB  has a loan agreement with Credit Swisse to lend his stock for short selling purposes.

http://www.theasset.com/article/23957.html

Some are stating that it will be very difficult to follow the trading pattern of LNC at least until the settlement date for the CBs- ie 10 April.

Be warned !

L/T Holder


----------



## skivvy

Yes I read that info too Mickel, tough to take when the big boys short the stock knowing they can pick up the cb's at 3.40 in the future.  It explains the drop in the sp which looks overdone to me, but the shorts have the upper hand ATM. It is frustrating but I see it as a buying opportunity all the same. Hopefully the 200 M is for a worthwhile cause that will deliver a better outcome for us SH?


----------



## Mickel

Skivvy, I agree it is a buying opportunity. But when will it bottom in the short term ? Still, with all the good news "in the wings" $2 is an attractive price. And more so now they are "cashed up".

This is what BBY have to say on LNC after the CB issue-

"Linc has retired the A$90M 13%p.a. Fortress facility following the issue of an A$200M convertible note. The interest rate is 7%p.a., the conversion price is A$3.40/sh, and the maturity is 5 years, with a non call period of 2 years. After this issue, Linc will have A$180M of available liquidity, which will strengthen its negotiating position in respect of Joint Venture negotiations on UCG projects, the Wyoming Enhanced Oil Project, the Arkaringa shale oil farm out, and Linc’s risk capacity in respect of drilling in Alaska and sub salt Wilcox oil/gas plays in Texas. We believe there is considerable potential upside to our price target of A$3.40/sh. Umiat drilling is the closest upside trigger."

http://www.bby.com.au/bby-insights/...-note-issue-increases-flexibility-to-deliver/


----------



## basilio

Unnerving to watch the continued crash in LNC's SP.   All the LNC news is good and we don't even have a shooting war (yet) to justify a mass loss of confidence !! (God help us if that happens..)

Really feel as if the market is a giant shell game at the moment.:bad:


----------



## skivvy

Anxious times with the North Koreans flexing their muscles, lnc is still getting pushed down and the increased volume today on yesterday is a part of this market concern.  Where is the bottom who knows, but I am looking under every rock to be ready for the reversal.  In my opinion Linc still represents some of the best growth opportunities in the market, but value doesn't always get reflected in the sp, that is why it is called a "market"


----------



## dogeatdog

I'm not a legal person, but maybe one of you folk can analyise, and enlighten us, based on this link, with regard to the recent $200m fund raising process. www.otciq.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById?id=102264
It seems the 10th of April may offer some clarity to which direction the sp may move, at least in the near future.
(LNC share holder)


----------



## Mickel

dogeatdog said:


> I'm not a legal person, but maybe one of you folk can analyise, and enlighten us, based on this link, with regard to the recent $200m fund raising process. www.otciq.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById?id=102264
> It seems the 10th of April may offer some clarity to which direction the sp may move, at least in the near future.
> (LNC share holder)




Doggy, I think this scripted interview with Peter Bond today answers your queries-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-476.pdf

Also, the 26.5c increase in the S/P to $2.08 today is confirmation that he is correct.

Hopefully there will be more increases in the coming days.

LNC is in a stronger position now to proceed with its many profitable opportunities.


----------



## geoffgm3

I think something is about to happen at Linc! waiting on announcment.


----------



## basilio

geoffgm3 said:


> I think something is about to happen at Linc! waiting on announcment.




Really  !!? Apart from news from Umiat, Exxaro, Poland  South Africa,  GTL plant in Queensland ?


----------



## Mickel

geoffgm3 said:


> I think something is about to happen at Linc! waiting on announcment.




Geoff, would it have anything to do with the Gasfields Commission Bill being discussed in Parliament this afternoon/evening ?

This is listed in order of business for the parliament-

"GASFIELDS COMMISSION BILL (Explanatory Notes)
Introduced by: Deputy Premier, Minister for State Development, Infrastructure and Planning (Mr Seeney)
Date introduced: 27 November 2012 (Record of Proceedings Proof p. 2754)
Status: Referred to State Development, Infrastructure and Industry Committee on 27 November 2012 (to report by 27 March 2013 as advised to the House on 27 November 2012)."

http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/tableoffice/notice_paper/2013/130416_NP.pdf


----------



## dogeatdog

geoffgm3 said:


> I think something is about to happen at Linc! waiting on announcment.




Geoff! There is always "something about to happen at Linc". Care to elaborate, or offer a link to something that induced you to write your first post on this thread?


----------



## Mickel

Oil flowing at Umiat !

Good news in the latest announcement from LNC.

The oil is flowing at well #18 and LNC is in the process of flow testing it with results to be announced over the next 7 to 14 days.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-482.pdf

S/P reached a high of $2.02 so far today and is currently $1.98  (up 13c today).

There is a photo of Well # 18 (included in the announcement) .

The flow rates of this well and the horizontal well to be drilled next are critical in establishing Umiat as a commercial field.


----------



## basilio

Well that *is* a promising start.

Interesting how the "market" is reacting at the moment.  When LNC announced the potential to develop its Akaranga  oil shale  tenements the market went berserk. Screamed through $2 and reached $3 on the strength of some very ambitious, very speculative  "might" "maybe" "possible" statements.

Three months later and we are back to $1.86 and the news of a promising  flow from Umiat, which appears far more likely to produce big bucks within the next 3 years,  scores a minor bump. 

I think the speculative element of the stock market has totally evaporated in the past 6 weeks. It's not just with LNC.  Many other stocks with excellent news actually falling on announcement !


----------



## dogeatdog

basilio said:


> Well that *is* a promising start.
> 
> Interesting how the "market" is reacting at the moment.  When LNC announced the potential to develop its Akaranga  oil shale  tenements the market went berserk. Screamed through $2 and reached $3 on the strength of some very ambitious, very speculative  "might" "maybe" "possible" statements.
> 
> Three months later and we are back to $1.86 and the news of a promising  flow from Umiat, which appears far more likely to produce big bucks within the next 3 years,  scores a minor bump.
> 
> I think the speculative element of the stock market has totally evaporated in the past 6 weeks. It's not just with LNC.  Many other stocks with excellent news actually falling on announcement !




Your right Bas.
The global macro conditions, and recent commodity price declines, are fueling fears.
Let's hope confirmed positive results from this well will give credibility to Linc/PB, and drive the SP higher, rather than just speculative statements, from PB and various analysts.
(LNC share holder)


----------



## dogeatdog

Another disappointing announcement today, sending the SP down a close of A$1.50.
www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-486.pdf
This news, and the lack of progress with alternative areas of the business, will no doubt create a good opportunity to short the stock. 

(LNC share holder)


----------



## basilio

This is a very savage response to the Unimat news. I can't see how the real value of the company has been devalued by 25% because of  the relatively small mechanical glitches in the first drills. After all they did find 100 feet of oil bearing material.

It seems that the only way for the resource sector stocks is down. No real rhyme or reason - just sentiment. So the shorters are just accelerating the process.


----------



## johnpw

A good buying opportunity?


----------



## basilio

Anyone with Balls of Steel could make a motza picking the bottom of LNCs drop and watching it recover.

Any takers ? Or have we all been skewered by falling knives ..


----------



## johnpw

basilio said:


> Anyone with Balls of Steel could make a motza picking the bottom of LNCs drop and watching it recover.
> 
> Any takers ? Or have we all been skewered by falling knives ..




LOL - I've gone for a buy order at 1.20. It'll bounce back to $3 at some point - it always does if you're willing to wait. Lets just hope the waiting periods are getting shorter and Mr Bond still has a few PR stunts up his sleeve. China partnership to the rescue maybe?!


----------



## dogeatdog

johnpw said:


> LOL - I've gone for a buy order at 1.20. It'll bounce back to $3 at some point - it always does if you're willing to wait. Lets just hope the waiting periods are getting shorter and Mr Bond still has a few PR stunts up his sleeve. China partnership to the rescue maybe?!



History is not guaranteed to repeat itself JP, but I agree PB now has his fingers planted deeply into many pies. Hopefully for us share holders, positive news will follow el rapido. 
In the short term at least, the stock once again offers a wonderful day trading opportunity.


----------



## basilio

*Who is manipulating share prices on the stock market - in particular LINC ENERGY ?*

It has been a very crazy, frustrating ride with LNC over the past few years hasn't it ? Many people have voiced concerns about systemic short selling and conflicts of interest with large financial institutions. Along the way investors have lost not only their fingers but arms legs and everything in between. 

One particular investor has taken the trouble to investigate and document what has happened with LNC shares from 2010 - 2013. Its a long read but IMO well worth the time.  Far more significantly however it opens the question of market manipulation and the role that ASIC or other financial institutions should take to ensure transparency in the marketplace. 

The researcher does not focus solely on LNC. If you followed CUDECO with much frustration in the past few years you can check out  the analysis  on that share

I will also open this topic for discussion on the general investor forum.

Cheers

http://www.scribd.com/doc/139929124/7-2-Further-Research-Into-ASX-200-Companies-Linc-Energy-LNC


----------



## rbgmauq

The Western Australian government ratified an agreement to develop the vast onshore Canning Super Basin, in order to exploit the rich shale gas fields. Linc announced in January that it had found ‘significant’ shale oil deposits in South Australia, and investors may be hoping that the South Australian government follows in the West’s steps. Recently the company also announced that its Umiat oil field in Alaska is expected to produce 50,000 barrels of oil per day, during peak production. Technical buying signal is on.


----------



## tech/a

Don't know why my inert comment was deleted.

One of the reasons I use technical Analysis rather than continually trying to guess what's going on with all sorts of material put out there.

Every chart tells a very clear story.
No need to risk your holdings.
Why you'd hold after the evidence seen on the chart just eludes me.

Surely a rudimentary knowledge would save people $1000s??

*Click to Enlarge.*


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Every chart tells a very clear story.
> *No need to risk your holdings.*




Exactly, and those who complain about this or any similiar stock, it's not the stock that is the issue, it was you that kept holding it as it fell.

Tell me again who's fault it is that you are in the red, you or those dastardly short selling manipulators


----------



## tinhat

tech/a said:


> Don't know why my inert comment was deleted.
> 
> 
> Surely a rudimentary knowledge would save people $1000s??
> 
> View attachment 52110




I've never owned LNC but I appreciate your annotated graph. Thanks.


----------



## basilio

Thanks for the graphs Tech/A.  Very illuminating. For example it would certainly have made sense to consider an exit at the high points of LNC's SP wouldn't it ?

However I believe we are talking at cross purposes here. I opened this discussion on  apparent evidence of a strategy that seems to be used by some larger entities to push down the price of LNC for their advantage. As I see it,  it is similar to other tactics that are used and legislated against by market regulators. For example  insider trading, issuing of misleading information and so on.

That is the issue under discussion not the ups and downs of LNC per se.


----------



## tech/a

basilio said:


> Thanks for the graphs Tech/A.  Very illuminating. For example it would certainly have made sense to consider an exit at the high points of LNC's SP wouldn't it ?
> 
> However I believe we are talking at cross purposes here. I opened this discussion on  apparent evidence of a strategy that seems to be used by some larger entities to push down the price of LNC for their advantage. As I see it,  it is similar to other tactics that are used and legislated against by market regulators. For example  insider trading, issuing of misleading information and so on.
> 
> That is the issue under discussion not the ups and downs of LNC per se.




So what your saying is that those investing in LNC have been at the mercy of these dastedly price manipulators.

What I'm saying is you don't have to sit by passively and cop it. At the very latest you should be out after that gap down. More proactive investors with even a modicum of ability would have been out at the crossing of the trend.

*If your worried about perceived manipulation learn how to survive it----don't think anyone else will come to the rescue.*


----------



## basilio

T/A are there more ways to look at the world than simply through charts ?

I can accept that recognizing  when a share has gone too high is a good time to get out. I can appreciate ceratin price signals  could indicate  a coming  fall. (or perhaps not  ?))

But I'm not prepared to accept that  on top of these factors we have to take market manipulations that are simply there to enrich one party at the expense of others. 

Clearly you see this from the a single perspective of a sophisticated investor/individual attempting to gain best advantage of trading. I'm saying that the rest of the investment community needs some protection othwerwise there will be a progressive loss of faith in the stock market with losses to everyone.


----------



## 5oclock

TechA, that chart and explanation is a mini how to trade course, well done, and i hope the other posters take note and learn something from it.!


----------



## tech/a

basilio said:


> T/A are there more ways to look at the world than simply through charts ?




True but in the world of trading i have found no better nor as profitable.



> I can accept that recognizing  when a share has gone too high is a good time to get out. I can appreciate ceratin price signals  could indicate  a coming  fall. (or perhaps not  ?))




True again.
When Fundamentally investing you are anticipating a move from under valuation to true or even over valuation.
Whether it be entry or exit I'm doing similar in anticipating a move.



> But I'm not prepared to accept that  on top of these factors we have to take market manipulations that are simply there to enrich one party at the expense of others.




I feel your pain. But you can take control of this without standing silently awaiting the authorities to clear the field. There are always people exploiting any opportunity they see as beneficial to them. You and I are no different. Increase your edge.



> Clearly you see this from the a single perspective of a sophisticated investor/individual attempting to gain best advantage of trading. I'm saying that the rest of the investment community needs some protection othwerwise there will be a progressive loss of faith in the stock market with losses to everyone.




The stock market has endured all kinds of attempts and methods to tilt the scales one way or the other.
Whinging that the playing field isnt level wont make you or "The Community" any more likely to gain a profitable advantage than if we maintain the status quo.
Whats next "Bots". High Frequency trading.-----

Loss of faith comes from those who allow others to control their financial future and become exasperated when they find that their GURUS (Managed Funds etc) cant protect them from economic re balance.
Or Private Investors who simply buy a stock based upon "Their" valuation and anticipated future value only to see that fall terribly short.

As they cant possibly be wrong---it must be some other dastardly reason---beyond their control.
They simply sit --watch--and complain.


----------



## CanOz

+1.    Great post Tech/A


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Loss of faith comes from those who allow others to control their financial future and become exasperated when they find that their GURUS (Managed Funds etc) cant protect them from economic re balance.
> Or Private Investors who simply buy a stock based upon "Their" valuation and anticipated future value only to see that fall terribly short.
> 
> As they cant possibly be wrong---it must be some other dastardly reason---beyond their control.
> They simply sit --watch--and complain.




Bingo




CanOz said:


> +1.    Great post Tech/A




I'll second that


----------



## tinhat

basilio said:


> Clearly you see this from the a single perspective of a sophisticated investor/individual attempting to gain best advantage of trading. I'm saying that the rest of the investment community needs some protection othwerwise there will be a progressive loss of faith in the stock market with losses to everyone.




It has always been thus surely?

Firstly, is LNC an "investment grade" company? Or more simply, does it make a profit? I would not think it is a suitable stock for an investor based on fundamentals. So if you own this stock who else is in the pool you are swimming in? If the company is not making a profit it can't pay a dividend. So how will you profit from owning it's shares? Capital gains. You aim to buy low and sell high. To do that you are going to have to grab shares off some sucker who doesn't realise that they are worth more. To realise a profit you have to sucker someone into paying what you consider to be too much for your shares which you now deem to be too expensive (better opportunity elsewhere). So every time you buy or sell a share you are, in your estimation, screwing over some other poor sod. Where's the morality in the market? Any market is going to be full of people who are going to try and manipulate it to their advantage. That's human nature. The aim is to not be the one on the wrong side of the trade.


----------



## basilio

Again a lot of interesting perspectives.

I said it a few times but it seems to be overlooked in the conversation. I am not trying to bang on about the short selling attacks on LNC in particular. The report I referenced attempted to show that the short selling in LNC shares was  very neatly recovered by off market transactions which enabled the short sellers to repurchase shares at depressed prices without having to bid for them on the open market. 

That was the part I thought warranted investigation.

My query is whether that type of  collusive corporate action should be sanctioned.  It seems that most forum members don't see anything wrong with it.  If effect "buyer beware".  

Just for fun I am going to open another thread on the main forum to start discussion on what types of market transactions/manipulations/whatever  people believe should be sanctioned and why.

Cheers


----------



## skyQuake

basilio said:


> *Who is manipulating share prices on the stock market - in particular LINC ENERGY ?*
> 
> I will also open this topic for discussion on the general investor forum.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> http://www.scribd.com/doc/139929124/7-2-Further-Research-Into-ASX-200-Companies-Linc-Energy-LNC




I skimmed through it and came to a conclusion. When you need to write a paper to justify holding an 'undervalued' stock, then its really really time to get out.

Here is what the author had






And here is Guildford Coal, Whitehaven, and Linc on different axis. No prize for guessing which ones which.





Not included: CZA, CPL and others that look far far worse with better cases.


----------



## Trembling Hand

basilio said:


> Again a lot of interesting perspectives.
> 
> I said it a few times but it seems to be overlooked in the conversation. I am not trying to bang on about the short selling attacks on LNC in particular. The report I referenced attempted to show that the short selling in LNC shares was  very neatly recovered by off market transactions which enabled the short sellers to repurchase shares at depressed prices without having to bid for them on the open market.
> 
> That was the part I thought warranted investigation.
> 
> My query is whether that type of  collusive corporate action should be sanctioned.  It seems that most forum members don't see anything wrong with it.  If effect "buyer beware".
> 
> Just for fun I am going to open another thread on the main forum to start discussion on what types of market transactions/manipulations/whatever  people believe should be sanctioned and why.
> 
> Cheers




Basilio why was it  "collusive corporate action". Just because it was off market doesn't in anyway support your claims. The shares listed on the ASX/Chi-X do 20% of volume off market. No big deal dark pools have been around for some time.

And no one give up their shares to short sellers to cover off market and hand them a profit out of their own performance. You have to be stark raving mad to think 1 fund manager just willing hands over his stock.


----------



## skc

basilio said:


> *Who is manipulating share prices on the stock market - in particular LINC ENERGY ?*
> 
> It has been a very crazy, frustrating ride with LNC over the past few years hasn't it ?
> http://www.scribd.com/doc/139929124/7-2-Further-Research-Into-ASX-200-Companies-Linc-Energy-LNC




It is really quite difficult to manipulate share price. Anytime you want to manipulate a share price, you need to first do the opposite of what you actually want. In this case, you need to sell / short it before you buy it. You need to make sure you can buy at a lower price yet a higher quantity than it just cost you to sell / short it. You really hope that no other institution sees value, and that they are easily spooked to sell along with you, AND that they have a larger holding than you so you can accumulate when they sell. 

But you (and even with a few more colluding firms) are not the only institutions in town, and other instos are not completely stupid. If value is so obvious and factual, other institutions will step up to buy and send a thank you note to whoever that is "pushing" the price down by selling it to them.

The other thing to remember is that traders at instos are probably short term focused. A ploy that pushes down the share price of your own holding for 24 months is probably not great when it comes to quarterly performance bonuses!

To me LNC is a perfect stock to experience large gyrations. Back in 2010, it was asset rich (when it sold the coal tenaments) had a few more on the boil and every listed coal stock was taken over. Then the coal sector really came off, LNC spent all that cash and went into heavy debt to acquire unproven assets, and all other asset sale talks were just that, talks. It turned its risk profile 180 degrees in the space of 12-18 months and the share price responded. The sector itself is a major factor - Rio spent $4b taking over the old Riversdale in June 2011, only to announce a $3b impairment in Jan 2013, 18 months later. It's a RIO asset so definitely no manipulation there...

Is it the same author who wrote about BBG shares being manipulated as well? What was his reasoning there? It's pretty clear now that the fundamentals of BBG warranted a falling price...


----------



## feetdawg

skc said:


> It is really quite difficult to manipulate share price. Anytime you want to manipulate a share price, you need to first do the opposite of what you actually want. In this case, you need to sell / short it before you buy it. You need to make sure you can buy at a lower price yet a higher quantity than it just cost you to sell / short it. You really hope that no other institution sees value, and that they are easily spooked to sell along with you, AND that they have a larger holding than you so you can accumulate when they sell.
> 
> But you (and even with a few more colluding firms) are not the only institutions in town, and other instos are not completely stupid. If value is so obvious and factual, other institutions will step up to buy and send a thank you note to whoever that is "pushing" the price down by selling it to them.
> 
> The other thing to remember is that traders at instos are probably short term focused. A ploy that pushes down the share price of your own holding for 24 months is probably not great when it comes to quarterly performance bonuses!
> 
> To me LNC is a perfect stock to experience large gyrations. Back in 2010, it was asset rich (when it sold the coal tenaments) had a few more on the boil and every listed coal stock was taken over. Then the coal sector really came off, LNC spent all that cash and went into heavy debt to acquire unproven assets, and all other asset sale talks were just that, talks. It turned its risk profile 180 degrees in the space of 12-18 months and the share price responded. The sector itself is a major factor - Rio spent $4b taking over the old Riversdale in June 2011, only to announce a $3b impairment in Jan 2013, 18 months later. It's a RIO asset so definitely no manipulation there...
> 
> Is it the same author who wrote about BBG shares being manipulated as well? What was his reasoning there? It's pretty clear now that the fundamentals of BBG warranted a falling price...




This detailed study on the outright manipulation of LNC shares might be interesting to you which I got from HC.  If its already been on this site pls ignore.  

http://www.scribd.com/doc/139929124/7-2-Further-Research-Into-ASX-200-Companies-Linc-Energy-LNC


----------



## basilio

feetdawg said:


> This detailed study on the outright manipulation of LNC shares might be interesting to you which I got from HC.  If its already been on this site pls ignore.
> 
> http://www.scribd.com/doc/139929124/7-2-Further-Research-Into-ASX-200-Companies-Linc-Energy-LNC




Actually mate I introduced the story a few days ago.  Few other posters on this forum however give it much credence . (I still think its worth investigating more closely.)


----------



## Trembling Hand

basilio said:


> Actually mate I introduced the story a few days ago.  Few other posters on this forum however give it much credence . (I still think its worth investigating more closely.)




There is so many errors and BS assumptions in it that every time i read a page I would have to spend a few hours pointing each out.

Here is one. The off market transfers on page 23-24 would be from option expiry which HAVE TO HAPPEN on that day, It dosn't need the shares to be open for trading. The author keeps banging this. 

Pointing out UBS trading flows like its a conspiracy. They are brokers... LOL dudes.


----------



## feetdawg

basilio said:


> Actually mate I introduced the story a few days ago.  Few other posters on this forum however give it much credence . (I still think its worth investigating more closely.)




Hi Basilio.  I think its an eye opening read and good find that confirms the over aggressive shorting and previous tight ranges the stock traded in.

See you on HC.

Cheers and thks info.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> There is so many errors and BS assumptions in it that every time i read a page I would have to spend a few hours pointing each out.
> 
> Here is one. The off market transfers on page 23-24 would be from option expiry which HAVE TO HAPPEN on that day, It dosn't need the shares to be open for trading. The author keeps banging this.
> 
> Pointing out UBS trading flows like its a conspiracy. They are brokers... LOL dudes.





T/H I don't know why you bother.


----------



## Mickel

The S&P ASX 200 index will include LNC as from the close of business on 21 June 2013.

This will increase buying from Insto index funds.

http://au.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-asx-200

L/T holder


----------



## basilio

Still no joy with LNC .  

However there was a big jump (33%) in the SP of AFC fuel cells in London. Could be something coming up with contracts for fuel cell sales. Might be some sort of catalyst for lNC there.


----------



## basilio

Think I found the reason for the sudden jump in AFC SP on Monday.  Apparently there was pretty little story in The Daily Mail highlighting the value the billionaire Roman Abramovich  investment strategy in AFC.

I imagine there would have been strong interest as a result.



> *Buy like a billionaire: Share tips from Roman Abramovich*
> 
> Joanne Hart
> Daily Mail
> June 10, 2013 8:33AM
> 
> 
> Roman Abramovich is best known as the autocratic Russian billionaire owner of Chelsea Football Club. But it is by no means his only business interest.
> 
> He and his best friend and business partner, Eugene Shvidler, have their fingers in many pies, including a small AIM firm, AFC Energy, that plans to transform the way large industrial companies use electricity.




http://www.couriermail.com.au/busin...roman-abramovich/story-fnic6on7-1226661135394

And  meanwhile, back at the ranch,  LNC sinks slowly into the sunset..


----------



## dogeatdog

The fact that MR Abramovich via Ervington investments, continues to take an interest in Linc's technology, one would have to remain positive for the future of Linc, despite the demise of the sp in recent times.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/20/abramovichs-investment-vehicle-scores-clean-energy-deal/

More worrying is the current global macro economic conditions.

(LNC holder)


----------



## basilio

Well another good story from LNC with the announcement of the joint Russian project.  Interestingly enough the interview on BRR suggested that this could take off very quickly - perhaps only a couple of months.

I am now* certain *that LNC will explode (and largely because I have exited to cover another opportunity. In my experience that always works...)

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf


----------



## Mickel

A Bloomberg article dated 20 June states in part-

"Separately, Linc has been in discussions to find a partner to develop shale oil prospects in central Australia. The company, which announced earlier this year that it hired Barclays Plc to help with the process, expects to narrow the talks to one group in a “few weeks,” Bond said. Linc is talking with at least four parties from outside Australia interested in the shale oil project in the Arckaringa Basin, he said."

I don't know why LNC didn't include this in their announcement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-partnership-with-billionaire-abramovich.html

The comment is vague in that it suggests that ALL the parties in discussions are from overseas. However, it doesn't specifically rule out an Aussie Coy (eg BHP). 

L/T Holder


----------



## basilio

Another shocking day for LNC. Currently 81.5   And I thought at $1.50 it was waaaay under value.
Just. Doesn't. Make. Sense.

Any thoughts ?

(Former LNC holder.)


----------



## johnpw

basilio said:


> Another shocking day for LNC. Currently 81.5   And I thought at $1.50 it was waaaay under value.
> Just. Doesn't. Make. Sense.
> 
> Any thoughts ?
> 
> (Former LNC holder.)




Negative reaction to the rumored BHP deal? Gregory Crinum coking coal complex: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324637504578566331698414820.html


----------



## sinner

basilio said:


> Another shocking day for LNC. Currently 81.5   And I thought at $1.50 it was waaaay under value.
> Just. Doesn't. Make. Sense.
> 
> Any thoughts ?
> 
> (Former LNC holder.)




How did you value LNC?


----------



## dogeatdog

johnpw said:


> Negative reaction to the rumored BHP deal? Gregory Crinum coking coal complex: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324637504578566331698414820.html




PB Put this out to dispel the BHP speculation.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-492.pdf


----------



## Mickel

There is speculation on 2 different scenarios linked to LNC's discussions about buying the BHP mines, which are close to Teresa.  Both have some credibility.

1. LNC could do a contra deal (in part) with the purchase of these mines linked to BHP becoming a JV partner in Arckaringa. This would negate any further Capital Expenditure by LNC.

2. LNC wants to combine the 2 BHP Billiton mines with Teresa because of the accompanying plant. If they were all packaged together, there may be little Capital Expenditure required to have them all producing, and combined there may be further economies of scale. They may then be onsold at a reasonable price in the short term.

These scenarios are compatible with LNC's announcement late yesterday - 

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-492.pdf


----------



## Mickel

Mickel said:


> A Bloomberg article dated 20 June states in part-
> 
> "Separately, Linc has been in discussions to find a partner to develop shale oil prospects in central Australia. The company, which announced earlier this year that it hired Barclays Plc to help with the process, expects to narrow the talks to one group in a “few weeks,” Bond said. Linc is talking with at least four parties from outside Australia interested in the shale oil project in the Arckaringa Basin, he said."
> 
> I don't know why LNC didn't include this in their announcement.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-partnership-with-billionaire-abramovich.html
> 
> The comment is vague in that it suggests that ALL the parties in discussions are from overseas. However, it doesn't specifically rule out an Aussie Coy (eg BHP).
> 
> L/T Holder




It is two weeks since that Bloomberg article. So if the quote from PB is correct (ie a few weeks) we should hear some good news about Arckaringa in the next week or two.

But the qualifications are-
1. PB's timelines are usually very fuzzy
2. It presumes that reducing the "talks" to one party will lead to an immediate announcement.

In any case, the S/P rise of 13c to $1.01 today is welcome and perhaps an indication that an announcement is not far away.


----------



## dogeatdog

Mickel said:


> It is two weeks since that Bloomberg article. So if the quote from PB is correct (ie a few weeks) we should hear some good news about Arckaringa in the next week or two.
> 
> But the qualifications are-
> 1. PB's timelines are usually very fuzzy
> 2. It presumes that reducing the "talks" to one party will lead to an immediate announcement.
> 
> In any case, the S/P rise of 13c to $1.01 today is welcome and perhaps an indication that an announcement is not far away.




Hey Mickel. Actually a nice little jump from the low 0.80c's this week. 
It would be comforting to witness the SP increase based of fundamentals rather than speculation for a change.
However I'll not complain as there is some nice money to be made day trading.

Happy holidays to any Americans visiting the thread today :bier:

(LNC holder)


----------



## Mickel

Good news (of a sort) for LNC.

Qld Govt has released and endorsed the final ISP Report on UCG and LNC has released a statement -

http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/legislation-pdf/isp-final-report-cs-review.pdf

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-496.pdf

These are the Recommendations-

Consequently, the ISP makes the following three (3) overarching recommendations.

*Overarching recommendation 1.*

The ISP recommends that the Queensland government permit Carbon Energy and Linc Energy to continue the current pilot trials with the sole, focused aim of examining in a comprehensive manner the assertion that the self-cleaning cavity approach advocated for decommissioning is environmentally safe.

*Overarching recommendation 2.*

The ISP recommends that a planning and action process be established to demonstrate decommissioning. Successful decommissioning needs to demonstrate the self-cleaning process and/or any necessary active treatment. To achieve this:

1. A comprehensive risk-based plan for decommissioning must be produced;
2. The Plan must take account of the fact that both companies now have connected cavities suitable for demonstration [Linc Energy is still gasifying];
3. The Plan must include at a minimum a conceptual model and relevant numerical models, a sampling and verification/validation strategy, and event-based milestones that, where possible, are time bound.
Two significant phases are recognised:
a. Sampling of the zone surrounding the cavity; and
b. Direct cavity access.
4. The government must establish a process by which the plans and their implementation are assessed for adequacy.

*Overarching recommendation 3.*

The ISP recommends that until decommissioning is demonstrated, as per Overarching Recommendation #2 no commercial facility should be commenced.

Specific Recommendations

*Specific recommendation #1*
The government together with the UCG industry and an independent advisory body, should develop guidelines and standards for site selection. The ISP recommends that site selection is a process that should be preceded and informed by appropriate geological surveys, hydrogeological modelling and an assessment of the community and environmental context. Such assessments must serve as Go / No Go gates for decision to develop or not any site for UCG operation, i.e., any limiting factor should signal No Go for the site.

*Specific Recommendation #2*
The ISP recommends that for each new panel, the UCG industry adopts a ‘commissioning’ approach rather than ‘start-up’ or ‘ignition’ regardless of size or multiplicity, to reduce the risks associated with this phase. Commissioning should involve world’s best practice for risk management in process industries including HAZOP, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, LOPA including all the controls to ensure that the inherent risks of UCG activities are minimised from the outset.

*Specific Recommendation #3*
If the UCG reaction has been extinguished, then restarting the panel should follow the pre defined risk protocols. If restart is deemed unacceptable the process should proceed directly to decommissioning and rehabilitation.

*Specific Recommendation #4*
No further panels should be ignited until the long term environmental safety provided by effective decommissioning is unambiguously demonstrated. Evidence of the effectiveness of decommissioning must be comprehensive.

*Specific Recommendation #5*
The companies should immediately propose, test and establish acceptable and agreed processes and outcomes for rehabilitation.

*Specific Recommendation #6*
The ISP recommends that any UCG operation should be licensed on the basis that it is responsible for maintaining and controlling all its operating conditions, taking into account the conditions of the site at the time of approval, including maintenance of groundwater pressure.

*Specific Recommendation #7*
The government should consider establishing two new entities to support a UCG industry at the level necessary to ensure its best chance to be environmentally, socially and economically viable.
1. Queensland UCG Independent Assessment, Evaluation and Advisory Group.
2. The Queensland UCG R&D Network.8

*Specific Recommendation #8*
A commercial operation should be designed from the outset on a foundation of well-established principles i.e. a risk-based approach from the outset in all phases of the life-cycle of multi-panel


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Price just leaped up suddenly on the trendline break.  Despite watching all day i couldn't bring myself to buy.


----------



## Mickel

Gringotts Bank said:


> Price just leaped up suddenly on the trendline break.  Despite watching all day i couldn't bring myself to buy.




Gringotts, did you get on this morning ? Already up 8.5c to $1.215 today with 4/1 ratio of buyers to sellers.

The ship is fully loaded and leaving the jetty !!!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Mickel said:


> Gringotts, did you get on this morning ? Already up 8.5c to $1.215 today with 4/1 ratio of buyers to sellers.
> 
> The ship is fully loaded and leaving the jetty !!!




Changed my mind and bought last night.  Bit of luck eh?


----------



## tech/a

Gringotts Bank said:


> Price just leaped up suddenly on the trendline break.  Despite watching all day i couldn't bring myself to buy.






Gringotts Bank said:


> Changed my mind and bought last night.  Bit of luck eh?




I love these threads.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

tech/a said:


> I love these threads.




/////////


----------



## Mickel

Gringotts Bank said:


> Changed my mind and bought last night.  Bit of luck eh?




I'd call it astute buying !

Good fortune to all holders.


----------



## Mickel

More good news this morning from LNC regarding Oil production in the USA -

"Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce the recent drilling success and future drilling potential at Cedar Point Field in Galveston Bay, Texas.

To date we have completed one well with initial production rate of 1000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) (400 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and 3.6 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMCF/D)). Linc Energy is currently drilling and completing two more wells at Cedar Point.

Further to this drilling success, Linc Energy has successfully utilised its recently reprocessed 3D seismic to develop multiple drilling opportunities in Cedar Point Field. The Company’s geoscientists were then able to correlate the seismic signatures to historical well data.

Linc Energy anticipates that these reservoirs will be capable of sustaining excellent production rates over several years in contrast to higher declines at Barbers Hill due to the ten-fold increase in the size of each completed reservoir. Historical average cumulative production per well in the Cedar Point field has been 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent."

This is very good news and bodes well for LNC meeting their target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by 31 Dec 13, which in turn will greatly assist LNC fund their total operations and place them on a sounder financial footing.

The S/P initially rocketed to $1.60 and is currently up 14.5c at $1.52.


----------



## rbgmauq

Long set up. Watch for a breakout from resistance 1.79. 
http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=lnc&c=ax


----------



## skc

Who's manipulating LNC's share price?! It's down 26% today and down a whopping 200% since the start of the month.

This surely demands an ASIC investigation. It just doesn't make sense.

Oh wait a second... LNC actually went *UP* 26% today and *UP *200% since start of the month.

All good. There's no manipulation. Fundamental rules!

P.S. All rights reserved to cry about manipulation when share price falls again.


----------



## Mickel

Great day today with S/P rising to $1.735 (up 36c or 26%).

Hopefully more to come before a small retrace to consolidate.


----------



## ColB

skc said:


> Who's manipulating LNC's share price?! It's down 26% today and down a whopping 200% since the start of the month.
> 
> This surely demands an ASIC investigation. It just doesn't make sense.
> 
> Oh wait a second... LNC actually went *UP* 26% today and *UP *200% since start of the month.
> 
> All good. There's no manipulation. Fundamental rules!
> 
> P.S. All rights reserved to cry about manipulation when share price falls again.




While you were watching all that happen SKC, did you get on the train or did you just want to take the p##s out of those who whinge about market manipulation?

This has been a dog of a stock in terms of its volatility since the GFC.

After watching it fall from a high of $3.00 recently down to 78 cents I thought it was a good time to jump on board.  $24,000 profit since 28 June 2013.  

Should continue to rise especially with expected announcement of sale of Arkaringa assets.

Confirmation Summary As at Mon 15 Jul 2013 5:20 PM (Sydney time)  No. Buy Confirmations No. Sell Confirmations Total Confirmations Value Buy Confirmations($) Value Sell Confirmations($) Total Value($) Total Brokerage ($) Total GST on Brokerage ($) 
5 0 5 27,775.75 0.00 27,775.75 99.75 9.05 

Confirmation Number Order Number Trade Date Buy/ Sell Security Units Average Price ($) Brokerage (inc GST.) Net Proceeds ($) Settlement Date Confirmation Status Download Confirmation 
59521127 N68916983 8/07/2013  B  LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO

 8,200  1.025  19.95  8,424.95  11/07/2013  Confirmed  Download  
59522424 N68918073 8/07/2013  B  LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO

 5,000  1.010  19.95  5,069.95  11/07/2013  Confirmed  Download  
59475905 N68857918 3/07/2013  B  LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO

 11,800  0.845  19.95  9,990.95  8/07/2013  Confirmed  Download  
59438971 N68805646 28/06/2013  B  LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO

 2,500  0.840  19.95  2,119.95  3/07/2013  Confirmed  Download  
59389040 N68744799 25/06/2013  B  LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO

 2,500  0.860  19.95  2,169.95  28/06/2013  Confirmed  Download  
Download CSV5 results found


----------



## TheUnknown

When it was 90cents couple of weeks/days ago should have jumped in with 200k, spewing.


----------



## skc

ColB said:


> While you were watching all that happen SKC, did you get on the train or did you just want to take the p##s out of those who whinge about market manipulation?




The latter of course.



ColB said:


> After watching it fall from a high of $3.00 recently down to 78 cents I thought it was a good time to jump on board.  $24,000 profit since 28 June 2013.




Well done to you. And exactly what I meant here...



skc said:


> Indeed, if you are a long term investor, a market manipulator (by your definition) should be your best friend. If they push the price down irrationally you get to acquire cheap stock. If they push the price up irrationally you get to exit above fundamental value.






ColB said:


> Should continue to rise especially with expected announcement of sale of Arkaringa assets.




If one thing is certain about LNC is that nothing is for certain...


----------



## ColB

skc said:


> If one thing is certain about LNC is that nothing is for certain...




One good thing about LNC at the moment that should bring 'some' stability to its share price is their success in conventional drilling for oil and the income stream that it will provide.  

The companies potential is outstanding but the high cost of bringing their coal gasification and gas to liquid technology into production will be some time before any significant profits come into play.

Nothing is for certain as you point out SKC but I would not be surprised to see LNC back above $3.00 well before Xmas


----------



## culverhay

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy - advice needed!*

I am very inexperienced when it comes to buying and selling shares and if i'm honest i have no idea about them! However, a friend of mind suggested LINC energy, i bought at 0.84 - should i get out of the kitchen or hold on to them? Thanks


----------



## notting

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy - advice needed!*

No one can answer that question unless they know what all players are going to do with their holding over the next what ever time frame you decide it was a good or bad decision.
All I know about this company is that it provides the most magnificent shorting opportunities of any stock I know!!


----------



## payday

*Re: LNC - Linc Energy - advice needed!*



culverhay said:


> I am very inexperienced when it comes to buying and selling shares and if i'm honest i have no idea about them! However, a friend of mind suggested LINC energy, i bought at 0.84 - should i get out of the kitchen or hold on to them? Thanks




The answer is pretty obvious. Since you took your friend's advice to get into the stock, you really should be asking your friend what to do with it now. You're welcome


----------



## basilio

Well lucky, lucky you.  Just doubled your money and then some on one of your first investments

Everyone else here is gnashing their teeth....

Good luck. You can't really lose either way.


----------



## Mickel

There is a new Investor Linc newsletter now online here-

http://www.lincenergy.com/investor_linc.php

Articles include Cedar Point oil field, UCG in Sthn Africa, Eastern Russia, & Wyoming, drilling in Poland and the Sapex  Arckaringa Basin asset.

The June Quarterly Report is due by Wed 31 July. Hopefully we will also get a good result from the 3 rd oil well at Cedar Point by then as well.

PS I'm in a neck and neck race to lead the Tipping Competition this month. I hope we get a good announcement on that 3rd  Cedar Point oil well by Wed.


----------



## skivvy

Good luck there Mickel with the tipping, nice to see your loyalty paying off with lnc. I have managed to pick up a few more shares over the last month or so after selling half my holdings around 2.90. Really pleased with the first two well results from Cedar and this looks to be a good earner for lnc while we wait for Umiat drilling, an Ann on Ackaringa and further JV's for UCG. 
If only Boof can get the Aussies playing like the heat did last season in the big bash then we could have more things to smile about


----------



## Mickel

skivvy said:


> Good luck there Mickel with the tipping, nice to see your loyalty paying off with lnc. I have managed to pick up a few more shares over the last month or so after selling half my holdings around 2.90. Really pleased with the first two well results from Cedar and this looks to be a good earner for lnc while we wait for Umiat drilling, an Ann on Ackaringa and further JV's for UCG.
> If only Boof can get the Aussies playing like the heat did last season in the big bash then we could have more things to smile about





Hi Skivvy

I managed to slide in to the winners spot in the July Comp with a 97.56% increase against a fast rising Bathuu with BUL rising 95.24 %.

It seems that you have done very well with the rollercoaster of the LNC S/P. I'm hoping that the next rise past $3.00 will be permanent.

I think the appointment of Boof as the Aussie coach  was the best thing that the ACB have done in years. Their dealings with ex coach Authurs to date leave a lot to be desired. From the newsletter, it appears that Boof will still coach the Linc sponsored Brisbane Heat in the Champions League this year at least.


----------



## skivvy

Well done Mickel, my congrats to you. Not sure if we will see a similar rise with lnc this month but with some good news who knows.  Qtly was ok to me at first scan but will read more tonight. 
As for the cricket, I didn't support mickey Arthur's apptment  in the first place so all good now Boof is at the helm, he has a challenge with the current players though.
Bring on the second rig from barbers to cedar and we should see some good results in the next qtly I am tipping.

Skivvy


----------



## notting

Exited half my short yesterday with that high close.
Will probably jump out of the rest tomorrow if it shows strength.
Oil seems to be strengthening and this could run a bit.
Will be looking for the next big short when oil looks to come back down as it surely will!!


----------



## Mickel

The silence is deafening on further results from the Cedar Point oil field.

We had 2 ASX announcements -15/7 & 22/7- each advising impressive oil flows
at the Cedar Point field and the 22/7 ann advised a 3rd well was underway with
another 10 well locations identified.

The unstated expectation was that there would be another announcement within 
approx 2 weeks, of the 3rd well flow.

Now, 3+ weeks later and no news !! Was the 3rd well a fizzer ?? Who knows ??
Certainly not Beau (from the Footy Show) !


----------



## Mickel

Still no further news on the Cedar Point field.

Announcement today that the UCG demo plant operation in Wyoming will commence a 30 day public notice period
and then a 30 day public comment period. Hopefully after this 60 days LNC will be able to commence
their trials. 

It has taken 3 years to get to this stage, so 'fingers crossed", the end of the wait is near.


----------



## basilio

Next big thing for LNC could be approval for Adani's coal mine. 

Certainly a lot of pressure from the Queensland Govt to get approvals for the Galilee basin projects. The revenue stream into LNC would be very valuable (Around $100m plus PA)

The other interesting part is that Clive Palmers coal mines are also in the Galilee  Basin. I wonder how it would look if Clive makes another billion while he is a politician negotiating with the Government over approvals for his mines. Hmnn..

http://www.waginargus.com.au/story/1770997/get-out-of-our-way-on-huge-mines-abbott-told/?cs=1287


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Next big thing for LNC could be approval for Adani's coal mine.
> 
> Certainly a lot of pressure from the Queensland Govt to get approvals for the Galilee basin projects. The revenue stream into LNC would be very valuable (Around $100m plus PA)
> 
> The other interesting part is that Clive Palmers coal mines are also in the Galilee  Basin. I wonder how it would look if Clive makes another billion while he is a politician negotiating with the Government over approvals for his mines. Hmnn..
> 
> http://www.waginargus.com.au/story/1770997/get-out-of-our-way-on-huge-mines-abbott-told/?cs=1287




Yes Bas. The same article is getting widespread distribution in the SMH-

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...on-huge-mines-abbott-told-20130911-2tks7.html

Just think of the increase in employment in building the mines, railway and port and then operating them all. Not to exclude the boost to our terms of trade. And, of course, the royalties to both the Qld Govt and LINC.

PS Wagin in WA has a population of approx. 1,600. It used to have a good pub years ago when I visited.


----------



## smalltimer

Not much new here, but still worth a read as a bit of a refresh. 
The more I read about Linc, the better I like it.

*DUG Australia: Arckaringa Basin Holds Unconventional Resources*

By Scott Weeden, Hart Energy
September 11, 2013

Resources are estimated at 3.5 Bboe, which is comparable to the Eagle Ford’s 3 Bboe.

The Arckaringa basin is in South Australia west of the Cooper basin. Comparisons with the Eagle Ford basin in the US show just what kinds of challenges face the nascent shale gas industry in Australia.

The Eagle Ford play has about 12 million acres overall and more than 80 operators are active. The Arckaringa basin has 20 million acres overall and one single operator – Linc Energy Ltd. – for about 16 million acres. Only 19 significant wells have been drilled in the Arckaringa, and there are no producing fields. More than 4,000 wells were drilled in the Eagle Ford over the last 12 months, and the play includes 38 fields. Resources are estimated at 3.5 Bboe in the Arckaringa and 3 Bboe in the Eagle Ford.

“We don’t have the capital to drill 100 wells, especially when those wells cost [US] $8 million to $10 million,” Don Schofield, president, Linc Energy, told the DUG Australia conference in Brisbane on Aug. 29. “We’re looking for joint venture partners and alliances. We’ve got a clean run on this acreage for 10 to 15 years without any competition. It will take about $2 billion to drill 300 wells.”

The company noted that there is a lot of exploration work yet to be done. Linc’s subsidiary, SAPEX Ltd., has 10 petroleum exploration licenses (PEL) covering 16 million acres, two PEL applications, and seven exploration licenses for coal and other minerals.

“Coal was what led us to the Arckaringa before unconventional became popular. We have about 4,313 line km (2,681 miles) of 2-D seismic and no 3-D in the largely unexplored basin. We have 19 wells that penetrate the zones of interest, so we don’t have a lot of data,” he said. “We’re in the exploration phase right now. We have mapped the tops and bottoms of the formations in seismic, which are carried across the basin.”

The shales of interest are in the Permian section and are marine shales. The shales are found from 600 m to 2,000 m (2,000 ft to 7,000 ft) deep and range in thickness from 70 m to 1,200 m (230 ft to 4,000 ft). Porosity is 5% to 17% with total organic compounds (TOC) from 4.5% to 10%. Currently the company is approaching the unconventional resources using conventional methods.

Linc discovered oil in the Maglia-1 well in 2011. The oil was found within coal seams and dripping from two sandstones between the coals. “The oil migrated from much deeper – more than 1 km – and that started us thinking about oil,” Schofield continued.

The company took cores in its Arck-1 well and found very organic-rich shales through the Stuart Range formation. “TOC was over 4.5% with some as high as 10%. Vitrinite reflectance was around 0.6%,” he added.

The resources are there. Linc used DeGolyer and MacNaughton, and Gustavson for prospective resource assessments. The former estimated unrisked prospective resources at 95 Bboe, while the latter set the number at 232 Bboe.

The company plans to take additional cores from hydrocarbon zones and do extensive technical analysis of the cores. Additional 2-D and 3-D seismic surveys are planned. Linc will test all producible hydrocarbon zones, develop a stimulation strategy, and pilot horizontal wells, he explained.

The next step for the company is to enter into some commercial deals and joint ventures. “We want to start alliances on the services side. “It is important to Linc Energy to work with traditional owners. We have an existing petroleum system with great characteristics. We have a large acreage position. People that look at it like it,” Schofield said.

http://www.epmag.com/Technology-Ope...a-Basin-Holds-Unconventional-Resources_122321


----------



## PinguPingu

Interesting chart for LNC in the last few months, dropping from ~$2 to ~$1.50 but on ever decreasing volume - technically doesn't look like many sellers should be left and any significant up-day could possibly propel it back towards 1.80-2.00 mark again

I don't hold but will continue to watch in interest.


----------



## basilio

Good presentation on LNC UCG/GTL/CO2 enhanced oil recovery project. (proposed).  This is their effort at putting all the pieces together in one very profitable package.

*The bottom line is a suggested revenue of $600m a year from a 5000BPD  GTL project.*  Lets see if they can at least one of these up and running .. (Maybe they will now that I'm out of it..)

http://www.uwyo.edu/eori/conferences/co2/2013 presentations/deurloo.pdf


----------



## PinguPingu

PinguPingu said:


> technically doesn't look like many sellers should be left






Lol, or not. But major support at 1.40, and gap closed.


----------



## smalltimer

LNC sitting on anything big in Australia ?
They may be told to get a hurry on....

Part of the incoming coalition governments plan to speed up mining investment and reinvigorate the mining boom will include telling resource giants to boost spending on massive new projects or being deprived of the right to tap the deposits they are targeting.

See story at ;

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network24693.html


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

PinguPingu said:


> Interesting chart for LNC in the last few months, dropping from ~$2 to ~$1.50 but on ever decreasing volume - technically doesn't look like many sellers should be left and any significant up-day could possibly propel it back towards 1.80-2.00 mark again
> 
> I don't hold but will continue to watch in interest.




I would agree, I'd be looking at action at the 50% retracement or maybe earlier of the last upward movement.







gg


----------



## TheUnknown

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would agree, I'd be looking at action at the 50% retracement or maybe earlier of the last upward movement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg





It hit .80 in july, I think it will hit back to .80 again before going back to $2.00, overpriced IMO.


----------



## dogeatdog

Linc Energy in Shale Talks With Oil Services Company in U.S.

www.businessweek.com/news/2013-09-25/linc-energy-in-shale-talks-with-oil-services-company-in-u-dot-s-dot-1


----------



## basilio

Looks like there is plenty of oil in Umait. Check out todays announcement.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130926/pdf/42jm368cmry6ll.pdf


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Looks like there is plenty of oil in Umait. Check out todays announcement.
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130926/pdf/42jm368cmry6ll.pdf




Yes, Bas. It appears this was the cause of the S/P jump of 9% yesterday rather than the release of the Annual Report post close (see below). It appears some insiders still have the running.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-503.pdf

Currently up 17c (11%) today to $1.72


----------



## smalltimer

Big push for Gas in Australia, works in well with LNC's Shale field and their announcement that they are looking for partners to develope.

*********************

http://www.afr.com/tags;jsessionid=5F449279B9229BB4DDD1949B1A65F4DC?tag=C_LINC ENERGY LTD-LNC

* Linc Energy worth watching despite ups and downs*
PUBLISHED: 26 Sep 2013 15:17:20  

As a highly prospective oil and gas play, shares in Linc Energy surged 500 per cent between late 2012 and March, but came off sharply in the ensuing three months. Promising exploration results have seen it rebound, and it is one to put on the watchlist.

*********************

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bu...9143441/australia-on-the-verge-of-a-gas-boom/

*Australia on the verge of a gas boom*
Kim Christian, AAP 
September 27, 2013, 6:50 pm
Australian domestic gas supplies and exports are expected to grow rapidly by the end of the decade.

Australia is in the midst of a gas boom.

Domestic gas supplies and exports are expected to grow rapidly by the end of the decade, enticing more major international oil and gas players to set up shop.

While iron ore, coal and gold have traditionally been the nation's big earners, analysts say Asia's insatiable demand for energy will lead to strong growth in gas production, as more than $200 billion in projects come online.

The industry is talking about an imminent boom in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, with four-fold growth projected by 2020 as China and Japan soak up Australia's supply.

But some analysts question whether the heady projections are realistic, given the risks that demand will not materialise.

Still, the federal government forecasts Australia will become the second biggest LNG exporter in just over two years.

Seven major projects are being built across the country, with three in WA, three in Queensland and one in the Northern Territory.

WA Premier Colin Barnett is certainly excited by the prospect of a gas boom in his state, predicting China's rapid growth will continue and as Japan acknowledges it will need more gas post-Fukushima.

As well as trumpeting WA's prized offshore conventional gas fields, Mr Barnett would love to the current shale gas boom in the US replicated in his home state.

"As some of the shale gas in the Canning Basin is developed I think you'll see the same phenomenon," Mr Barnett has said.

However, a recent HSBC report found a lack of roads and pipelines could hinder the industry's development.

It hasn't deterred junior explorer Buru Energy, and majors Mitsubishi and ConocoPhillips, from having a good look.

Meanwhile, new offshore projects are starting to produce gas, alongside the North West Shelf and Woodside's Pluto project in WA.

Last week BHP Billiton flew in executives from Houston to open its $1.5 billion Macedon gas plant, which will supply 20 per cent of WA's gas.

The modest-sized plant is set to be dwarfed by its gigantic Onslow neighbours including Gorgon, valued at $53 billion, and the $29 billion Wheatstone.

BHP's head of conventional gas Steve Pastor said the company liked WA because of its decades-long experience in oil and gas, and its proximity to the export market.

"The advantage Western Australia has is it's got fantastic resources," Mr Pastor said.

Less than six months after Woodside canned its onshore gas plant near Broome, floating gas processing is now all the rage.

Proposed floating LNG vessels in the Browse Basin and Scarborough Basin are in the early development stages, while multinational Shell presses ahead with building its world first Prelude floating LNG vessel in Korea.

Such is the popularity of the model that Shell plans to build more floating LNG plants.

Energy giant Exxon Exxon and its equal partner BHP Billiton will soon decide whether to pursue a floating option for Scarborough this year.

"Floating LNG is considered the best option," ExxonMobil says.


----------



## Smurf1976

So far as the gas "boom" (not a word I particularly like where gas is concerned - i'd rather the stuff didn't go "boom" anywhere near me.... ) is concerned, there practical implication for LNC is that of price.

Historically, gas prices in eastern Australia (ie everywhere except WA) have been below international pricing simply because it was a captive market. Either sell the gas locally, or don't sell it at all. That kept prices low.

But with the LNG plants being built this situation changes. Now we'll have export parity pricing, roughly similar to what already happens with oil and related products (petrol, diesel, kero, LPG, fuel oil etc). That means sharply higher prices - good news for gas producers, bad news for manufacturers, households, non-gas businesses and the owners of gas-fired power stations.


----------



## smalltimer

*Alaska tax cut boosts value of oil company's Umiat field by $1 billion*

September 28, 2013

The  Alaska oil tax cut will increase the value of the Umiat oil field to Linc Energy by about $1 billion, the company said Friday, though it did not predict any increase in production over what was expected under the old ACES tax system.

Over the next year, in the run-up to the statewide vote on repealing the tax cut,  there will be no end of alleged cause-and-effect announcements from the decision to increase oil company profits in hopes of generating more oil production.

After the bill won approval, Gov. Sean Parnell began calling it the "More Alaska Production Act," but it would be more accurate to call it the "More Alaska Profits Act."

As the arguments over repeal take shape, it will be important for reporters in Alaska to try to unravel as many details as possible and avoid the oversimplified claims that have dominated this debate for years.

To that end, the announcement from Linc Energy, an Australian company that bought the Umiat field two years ago, is instructive. 

The company has not changed its estimate of the "probable" reserves of 155 million barrels at Umiat or its goal of reaching a peak production of 50,000 barrels per day because of the tax cut.

But what has changed is the value of Umiat to Linc Energy.

The company said Friday the net present value of the probable reserves has been increased to $2.5 billion, up from $1.5 billion a year ago.

Net present value is a financial tool used to determine how much an investment is worth after taking expectations of inflation and future costs into account. The idea is that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

Linc hired the Ryder Scott Co., a Denver firm, to produce an independent estimate of its probable reserves in 2012. Ryder Scott released an updated report Wednesday with a higher value, but no change in production.

"There was no change in cumulative production and no new technical evaluation work done between April, 2012 and September, 2013," the Ryder Scott Co. said.

The Linc investment at Umiat took place in the summer of 2011.

Gov. Sean Parnell praised the move at the time, saying, “Production of up to 50,000 barrels of oil a day will benefit all Alaskans and the communities in the region by helping sustain the long-term operation” of the trans-Alaska pipeline.

And Peter Bond, the chief executive officer of Linc Energy, said the company was “greatly assisted by a number of generous state of Alaska incentives” under what was then the ACES tax regime.

“These incentives provide a natural opportunity to create a "win-win" situation for the State of Alaska, local communities and companies like Linc Energy, who are keen to invest in new resource projects in the region,” Bond said in a June 16, 2011 press release.

A year ago the company released the Ryder Scott Co. estimate that the  "probable” reserves at Umiat total 154 million barrels with a net present value of $1.5 billion.

Bond, the chief executive who said the ACES system was a “win-win,” used the exact same term in a press release Friday about Senate Bill 21 and the $1 billion increase.

“We see this legislation as a win-win for the citizens of Alaska and for Linc Energy,” Bond said in his statement.

As before, the peak production goal is 50,000 barrels per day.

A $1 billion increase is a win for Linc Energy. With the production goal unchanged, it's premature to call this a win for the state.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/artic...osts-value-oil-companys-umiat-field-1-billion


----------



## basilio

LNC has decided to list on the Singapore stock exchange, delist in Australia and possibly/probably sell more shares...

I thought they were going to have enough cash through the oil sales in USA to tide them over ? And selling more shares at $1.30- $1.40 ?

Thoughts ?

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-506.pdf


----------



## skc

basilio said:


> LNC has decided to list on the Singapore stock exchange, delist in Australia and possibly/probably sell more shares...
> 
> I thought they were going to have enough cash through the oil sales in USA to tide them over ? And selling more shares at $1.30- $1.40 ?
> 
> Thoughts ?
> 
> http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-506.pdf




It doesn't make any sense to say the least. What can they achieve in SGX that can't be achieved on the ASX? None of the reasons being offered seem to make much sense, and all can certainly achieved by dual listing rather than packing up shop and leave. A move to SGX will probably be met with reduced liquidity (at least in the short term)... now someone more knowledgable can discuss whether there are different disclosure requirements between the exchanges - from memory I read that SGX is less stringent, but I could be wrong on that.

Sounds like an elaborated attempt to raise money and get a fresh start, and it's unclear to me if there are real tangible benefits to existing holders.


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> It doesn't make any sense to say the least. What can they achieve in SGX that can't be achieved on the ASX? None of the reasons being offered seem to make much sense, and all can certainly achieved by dual listing rather than packing up shop and leave. A move to SGX will probably be met with reduced liquidity (at least in the short term)... now someone more knowledgable can discuss whether there are different disclosure requirements between the exchanges - from memory I read that SGX is less stringent, but I could be wrong on that.
> 
> Sounds like an elaborated attempt to raise money and get a fresh start, and it's unclear to me if there are real tangible benefits to existing holders.




As I understand it the SGX is much more laissez-faire when it comes to disclosure. Didn't John Hempton write a pretty stinging blog about SGX when they were trying to merge with the ASX?

Given LNC advertise their shares on Sky Business, SGX would seem a more natural fit for them.

ETA: Here's the post



> Senior management of at least one other big four Australian bank (won't tell you which one) privately lobbied the Treasurer Wayne Swan against the merger.  Their reason: Singapore is one of the dirtiest, most corrupt stock markets in the world and they did not want that syphilitic puss invading the Australian financial markets and in particular the Australian superannuation system.
> 
> You see Australia has a well-functioning and mostly honest privatized social security system we call “superannuation”.  Its one of the great economic achievements of this country.  It relies on a mostly honest financial market.
> 
> Singapore by contrast is one of the homes of Chinese fraud.  At one stage a quarter of the volume of the Singapore stock exchange was so called S-Chips – Chinese stocks listed in Singapore – and they were every bit as scummy as the Chinese reverse mergers listed in New York.  Singapore – in exchange for listing fees – allowed their population and their investment market to be raped by fraudsters.  (If you don't believe me look up a few of the S-Chips on the Wikipedia S-Chip scandal page.)
> 
> Singapore came to Australia saying they ran an honest market.
> 
> They lied.
> 
> At least one and possibly three of the big Australian banks knew they were lying.
> 
> Ultimately Wayne Swan knew they were lying.
> 
> He did the only decent thing and vetoed the merger and I applaud him for it.
> 
> Allowing that puss a place in the Australian market would be deeply damaging for the Australian superannuation system.  And Wayne Swan knew it.




http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2011/04/singapore-australia-stock-exchange.html


----------



## skc

McLovin said:


> As I understand it the SGX is much more laissez-faire when it comes to disclosure. Didn't John Hempton write a pretty stinging blog about SGX when they were trying to merge with the ASX?
> 
> Given LNC advertise their shares on Sky Business, SGX would seem a more natural fit for them.




Yes in deed that's the article I read which gave me the impression. Although I'd be the first to admit that I did not independently verify his claims.

The way LNC likes to value oil in the ground by the $billions with little consideration of economics of extraction... yes I can see the rationale of the move now.

Correction: I think they said $trillion.


----------



## basilio

The market has dropped like a stone since the announcement.  Currently $1.25.

Thanks for the heads up on the SGX.  Sounds like real cowboys.  Unfortunately that may be what Peter Bond is looking for. 

LNC can certainly spin a story about its potential assets and I think a creative story teller could create some action around the the newly listed company.  In that sense  current shareholders could see a boost in SP. 

But the risk of being on the wrong side of share scam seems too much to be part of.


----------



## TheUnknown

This is what i have been waiting for $160k all on LNC once it hits $0.80


----------



## johnpw

That's me out. Being listed on the ASX attracted me to LNC. I have no faith in SGX and conclude that LNC wants less disclosure, not more, which hurts small investors. It's a sad day for LNC. I suspect the ASX is better off without them.

Current long term holder. Dumping shortly...


----------



## notting

I'm pissed because I wont be able to short it after another stunt if it's subject to less disclosure in Singapore.

The board should be sacked and Bond should be banned from running a company in Australia.
His shares and other interests should be cancelled and share holders should mount a class action.
If share holders vote against the move the share price will be devastated, this latest stunt has destroyed them!

Bond reckons "It will unlock shareholder value." whilst he gives no indication of the value that would be put on it!!!

Quote "There is a percentage of gut feel and entrepreneurial philosophy in this." 

I'm reading this as, - I thought it would make the share price go up!!!

Get the spears out!


----------



## smalltimer

MARKET RELEASE
2 October 2013
*Linc Energy Limited*

*TRADING HALT*

The securities of Linc Energy Limited (the “Company”) will be placed in Trading Halt Session State at the request of the Company, pending the release of an announcement by the Company in relation to an acquisition. Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in Trading Halt Session State until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Friday, 4 October 2013 or when the announcement is released to the market.
Security Code: LNC
Cormac Murphy
Adviser, Listings Compliance 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01449855


----------



## smalltimer

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20131002-701629.html

SYDNEY--Rio Tinto PLC (RIO.AU) is poised to sell its Blair Athol coal mine in eastern Australia to *Linc Energy Ltd.* (LNC.AU), in a move to scale back exposure to a commodity that has suffered a steep fall in prices, a person familiar with the matter said Wednesday.

Discussions between the parties are at an advanced stage and a deal for the mothballed mine in Queensland state could be announced as soon as Thursday, the person said. Financial terms aren't known.

International resources companies like Rio and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP.AU) are selling smaller or less-profitable assets to boost shareholder returns following the end of a decadelong mining boom in Australia. Rio Tinto in July agreed to sell its majority stake in an Australian copper-and-gold mine to China Molybdenum Co. for US$820 million and wants to sell several other assets, including an iron-ore mine in Canada and stakes in coal mines in Australia and Mozambique, to trim debt that swelled to almost US$19 billion last year.

Rio Tinto closed the Blair Athol operation in November after it decided not to extend its mining life. The company estimated there was at least 10 million metric tons of coal left at the mine, which operated for nearly three decades. Annual production peaked at 11.3 million tons in 2009, falling to 2.6 million tons in 2012 as Rio scaled down operations.

"Any value obtained in our view would be good for Rio because we consider it a closed asset," said Glyn Lawcock, a Sydney-based mining analyst at UBS. "Someone else might have a slightly different vision on what they want to do with the mine and what direction coal prices are headed."

Later Wednesday, Linc requested that trading in its shares be halted ahead of an agreement to acquire a coal asset in Queensland. It didn't identify the mine.

Securing a sale is a boost for Rio Tinto, which faced the cost of converting the mine back to grassland. Another person familiar with the sales process said the Blair Athol mine could be restarted quickly, possibly within two months.

Coal assets are proving particularly difficult to sell as China's economy cools and coal supply in the Asia-Pacific region rises as cargoes are redirected from North America where power plants are using more natural gas. At round US$78 per metric tonne, prices for thermal coal used in power generation exported from Australia are less than half their July 2008 peak.

Three separate bids for Rio's majority stake in the Clermont mine, which borders Blair Athol, all fell short of the company's expectations and talks with potential buyers have stalled, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal on Monday.

Brisbane-based Linc already owns undeveloped coal properties in Queensland, but wants to focus more on its unconventional fuel and U.S. conventional oil assets. The company has indicated previously that it would consider buying extra coal assets and packaging them together to make a possible spin off of its coal business more appealing to investors.

Linc has also considered acquiring the Gregory Crinum mine in Queensland, which produces metallurgical coal used in steelmaking, from BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP.AU) and Mitsubishi Corp. (8058.TO). Late July, BHP said it had decided against selling the operation.

Linc said early Wednesday that it's planning to switch share market listings to Singapore from Australia and issue new shares in the process to help fund its growth. The company intends to seek approval from its shareholders for the move at a meeting on Nov. 6.

-Write to Ross Kelly at ross.kelly@wsj.com


----------



## So_Cynical

There was some interview footage of Peter Bond on the ABC show 'the Business' explaining the move and reasons behind it...he came across as a bit of a tool.

He was whining that the 'market' ~ meaning us, didn't value Linc properly, implying that we were not sophisticated enough....i immediately though that the opposite was true and that the average market participant is a wake up to a stock that see value in self promotion over profits. 

--------------------

Funny thing is i have to half agree with him, i remember when i bought into Beach after the CEO announced they were going to drill for shale gas and claimed there could be 200 TFC deep under the Cooper Basin, an almost outrageous claim at the time, that the market subsequently ignored, in fact the SP fell a little in the weeks after the announcement...allowing me to buy in cheap 

2 years later and the SP has more than doubled and one of the worlds largest energy company's (Chevron) has paid 350 million for a piece of the action, every hole hit gas and all the projections so far remain valid...and the market simply didn't want to know about it, and still (arguably) massively undervalues it.


----------



## skc

McLovin said:


> As I understand it the SGX is much more laissez-faire when it comes to disclosure. Didn't John Hempton write a pretty stinging blog about SGX when they were trying to merge with the ASX?




Whilst we are on the topic of SGX's governance issues - keep an eye out for the development of Blumont (which is trying to take over CKA and trying to recapitalise DML) and Lion Gold on the SGX. Both seem dodgy-at-best companies and each fell 60% on Friday. Blumont was suspended after the fall, but down up to 80% today on resumption.

I dare say normal companies don't tend to behave like this without news.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I have made a loss on LNC, on getting out on the SGX announcement.

I'm happy.

It may be the bestest, but I won't be losing sleep waitingest for it.

gg


----------



## Smurf1976

Nothing surprises me where Linc Energy is concerned.

Right from the start, it's been lots of "aspiration" with numerous changes to the actual business model along the way and, so far at least, nothing much actually produced beyond a bit of oil using technology that isn't new.

They were going to turn underground coal into oil. Then they were going to turn it into electricity (without first having to mine the coal). Now it's all about trying to be a pretty much conventional oil company whilst still having aspirations relating to coal (though it's not clear what they intend to actually do with the coal - using it underground versus mining it in the conventional manner).

The overall situation is akin to David Jones going into the business of selling cars or Qantas getting into the railway business. Sure, selling cars is a form of retail and trains are a means of transport, but a rational person would conclude that neither company has directly relevant experience and would be taking a huge risk at best with such a plan. 

There are exceptions, but most companies struggle to achieve success across unrelated fields. OK, so electricity and oil are both marketable forms of energy, but the business as such is entirely different and few companies are able to successfully operate in such a manner. Origin Energy is the only one that comes to mind, but they've got a lot more experience, from the board to blue collar workers, than Linc has. That plus Origin is just applying established technologies - it's only the financial and business side of it that they really have to focus on to make it work.

Linc just need to decide what business they are actually in, and get on with that business in my opinion. Trying to build an energy conglomerate from scratch is going to be difficult at best. Add in the various promotional stunts, a somewhat strange approach for a company that doesn't actually have a product to sell, and now the ASX / SGX antics and the whole thing looks dubious at best to me.


----------



## basilio

LNC is getting creamed at the moment. Currently $1.04 and down with a bullet.

Certainly no vote of confidence from current shareholders. Perhaps also a last hit from short sellers as well ?

I think at $1 it has to be very underpriced  -  but I have been burnt too many times to want to play again.

Mickel what are your thoughts ?


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> LNC is getting creamed at the moment. Currently $1.04 and down with a bullet.
> 
> Certainly no vote of confidence from current shareholders. Perhaps also a last hit from short sellers as well ?
> 
> I think at $1 it has to be very underpriced  -  but I have been burnt too many times to want to play again.
> 
> Mickel what are your thoughts ?




Hi Bas

I'm dirty on PB for taking this step at this critical time. I still believe in the LINC STORY and consider we are only now moving into the really exciting time with the following-
Shale Oil in the Arck
Power generation in Africa
Increase in Gulf Oil production
Proving up Umiat Oil
Russian JV with Roman's companies

Everything has been taking longer and there have been some setbacks which have impacted on cashflow. However, we could be only 2-4 months from proving a sizable oil field at Umiat and once proved, it *could *be sold for $$ in the order of a billion.

With the announcement, there has been quite a bit of shorting (eg 2.5M out of turnover of 7.4M last Fri). Also, it appears that various Funds will exit LNC before it delists from the ASX as they only invest on ASX stocks. Many individual investors also appear unhappy with the planned move and have exited. Another reason for exiting could be dilution with more new shares a distinct possibility.

I'm undecided with the merits of the move from ASX to SGX. It appears SGX have minimum buy orders of 1,000 shares which would severely restrict HF traders (a big plus) Also, I have heard reports that short selling is restricted on the SGX (another plus). There are reports that SGX rules are not as strict as the ASX and that the SGX is not as liquid as ASX but these are not "cut and dried".

If we get a big announcement re Arck Shale Oil JV before it delists it may be an appropriate time (and price) for some to exit. However, this is only a possibility in such a short time frame.

I'm still a holder but may reduce my holding.


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> Hi Bas
> 
> I'm dirty on PB for taking this step at this critical time. I still believe in the LINC STORY and consider we are only now moving into the really exciting time




Heard that before and will hear it again!


----------



## basilio

I supported LNC from 2008 and at one stage my entire portfolio was in the share. I managed to make the right decision to go all in just before the final, *final* sale of the Teresa coal fields.

It looked good  for a while and I felt very pleased with my brilliant investment accumen.   But as it meandered down hill I diversified into other shares .

But of course the last 3 years have not seen LNC take traction. I thought that the big run early this year was the real thing - but it doesn't look that good at the moment does it ?

I agree that there seems to be many valuable opportunities in the company. Hell the royalties on the Teresa coal deal alone are worth $100m + in a couple of years! But somehow it hasn't managed to kick a proper goal yet. 

And the market is just not paying for promises any more .


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> I agree that there seems to be many valuable opportunities in the company. *Hell the royalties on the Teresa coal deal alone are worth $100m + in a couple of years!* But somehow it hasn't managed to kick a proper goal yet.




Bas, For clarification I mention that the royalties will come from Adani's Carmichael tenement, not LNC's own Teresa tenement. The royalties are expected to start in 2017 and are projected to be $120M pa from 2023. Refer page 20 of 2013 Annual Report.

The current discounted value of the royalty stream has variously been estimated to be from around $300M to $1B (ie almost twice the current Market Cap of LNC). Whatever the current value, it is increasing monthly as Adani continue to meet their targets.


----------



## skc

Mickel said:


> I'm undecided with the merits of the move from ASX to SGX. It appears SGX have minimum buy orders of 1,000 shares which would severely restrict HF traders (a big plus) Also, I *have heard reports that short selling is restricted on the SGX (another plus). *There are reports that SGX rules are not as strict as the ASX and that the SGX is not as liquid as ASX but these are not "cut and dried".




Why "heard reports" when you can google the facts for yourself?
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/faqs#Marking_of_SellOrders


----------



## Mickel

skc said:


> Why "heard reports" when you can google the facts for yourself?
> http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/faqs#Marking_of_SellOrders




Thanks for the reference SKC.

I have been away for a few days and had much to catch up with when I returned. I see there are some restrictions on short selling on the SGX. Not sure if they would restrict the usuals shorting LNC.


----------



## basilio

Mickel said:


> Bas, For clarification I mention that the royalties will come from Adani's Carmichael tenement, not LNC's own Teresa tenement. The royalties are expected to start in 2017 and are projected to be $120M pa from 2023. Refer page 20 of 2013 Annual Report.
> 
> The current discounted value of the royalty stream has variously been estimated to be from around $300M to $1B (ie almost twice the current Market Cap of LNC). Whatever the current value, it is increasing monthly as Adani continue to meet their targets.




Oops !  Thanks.  Got the projects mixed up.

But your comment does remind us that the Teresa coal mine is also an asset that is (theoritically ) becoming more proven


----------



## basilio

Wasn't it a shame I didn't jump into LNC at $1.06 when i thought it was  way oversold ? Would have been up 20% by now 

____________________________________________________________________

Came across an interesting discussion on climate change in Alaska. In fact it directly affects LNC's Umiat drilling. I've quoted the introduction to the article but the rest is worth a read.



> *Alaska is world's laboratory for climate change research
> *
> Published: October 5, 2013
> Facebook Twitter Google Plus Reddit E-mail Print
> Recent Headlines
> 
> 
> y JOHN LIPPERT ”” Bloomberg News
> 
> When Jerry Otto started hunting for Alaska oil in 1980, his tractor-trailers barreled along ice roads that were up to 10 feet thick for 180 days every year.
> 
> *Last winter, when he set out to drill for Australia's Linc Energy, regulators opened the roads for 126 days. The rest of the time, warm weather left the routes too mushy for vehicles, according to Bloomberg Markets magazine*.
> 
> Then, in January, in a twist that embodies the perplexing reality of life and commerce amid a changing global climate, the temperature dropped suddenly to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit, encasing drilling rig components in ice as Otto waited for roads to solidify to ship the gear to Linc sites.
> 
> *After thawing the equipment with blowtorches, he discovered that the cold was reducing oil flowing into Linc's well. With 200 workers standing by, the company lost $300,000 a day with each delay, ending 2012 with a $61 million deficit.*
> 
> Otto plans to try again in December, this time drilling sideways into a hill to get underneath 1,000 feet of permafrost and up into reservoirs he says hold 1.2 billion barrels of light, sweet crude.
> 
> "It's getting more unpredictable," said Otto, 59, who runs Linc's drilling rig in Umiat, 80 miles south of the Arctic Ocean, which is within the National Petroleum Reserve that President Warren G. Harding created in 1923 to guarantee oil for the Navy.
> 
> *"We're in a race against Mother Nature. If we don't get cold weather early enough, or if it gets too warm too fast in the spring, it could stall the project."*
> 
> FORCED ADAPTATION
> 
> Otto and others already braving such extremes are experiencing a new phenomenon: daily life navigating the risks and opportunities of climate change.
> 
> The Arctic has heated up twice as fast as the rest of the planet in the past three decades. By August 2013, sea ice had lost 76 percent of its volume compared to 1979, according to the University of Washington's Polar Ice Center.
> 
> And the three main gases blamed for global warming -- carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide -- are at their highest level in at least 800,000 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported Sept. 27. The United Nations group cited core samples taken from ice sheets.
> 
> *On Alaska's Arctic coast, 30-foot-high cliffs that haven't budged since the last ice age are tumbling into the ocean overnight and village coastlines are eroding. Lightning-sparked forest fires have charred more than 1 million acres in five of the past 10 years. By midcentury, the average area burned by wildfires each year is likely to double, the EPA says.*
> 
> Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2013/10/05/3111739/alaska-worlds-laboratory-for-climate.html#storylink=cpy


----------



## Mickel

Great announcement out today. Cedar Point field now producing 2850 BOPD (incl horizontal well 1350 BOPD) with total production currently 6900 BOEPD.
S/P currently $1.505 and should rise significantly.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-513.pdf


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> S/P currently $1.505 and should rise significantly.




God I hope so.
Can't wait to drop on it!
People just do not learn.


----------



## basilio

LNC has run hard on the cumulative news of their increased oil production and  revalued potential value in Wyoming EOR project.

Currently $1.74.  

Good luck to all holders !!


----------



## TheUnknown

I really want to enter lnc at 90cents and ride until 1.60 and dump it.


----------



## basilio

TheUnknown said:


> I really want to enter lnc at 90cents and ride until 1.60 and dump it.




Well its going back down again. Short of winning  the grand lottery in Europe its seems impossible for LNC to hold its gains.


----------



## basilio

What a sad, sorry end for the Australian investors in LNC.

Peter Bond put a huge emphasis on trying to bolster support from small investors through his quarterly newsletter. Always had a story from  X or Y on their shareholding and how good it looked.

Now with the company being listed in Singapore and share transaction being unnecessary difficult and expensive the SP seems to be collapsing. I don't think this is Peters finest hour. (I finally sold out months ago ..)

On the other hand does anyone see a silver lining in this play ? Is there a realistic chance that  the relisting will result in a sharp SP incresae and that new investors who buy in now will see a commensurate  jump ? 
Thoughts ?


----------



## StevieY

Hi Guys,

Apologies for the noob question, but so what happens if you hold existing shares in LNC after Dec 6 (when they move to SGX)

Does it now mean that you will need to trade in Global Shares to sell / buy LNC?

Thanks!


----------



## meowmix

StevieY said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Apologies for the noob question, but so what happens if you hold existing shares in LNC after Dec 6 (when they move to SGX)
> 
> Does it now mean that you will need to trade in Global Shares to sell / buy LNC?
> 
> Thanks!




Bump, i also would appropriate if someone could tell me what will happen to my shares, i am a very amateur investor and im currently using CommSec to buy and sell, will i have to do anything to still buy and sell this stock? Thankyou


----------



## bennib0i

meowmix said:


> Bump, i also would appropriate if someone could tell me what will happen to my shares, i am a very amateur investor and im currently using CommSec to buy and sell, will i have to do anything to still buy and sell this stock? Thankyou




Hey mate,

If you hold LNC shares atm which I assume you do the current events are as follows:

1. Last Friday - LNC Suspended trading on ASX. Which means they are still listed, just not trading.

2. Last Friday until now - LNC sent out notices (mail / email) to holders informing them what to do to enable them to trade on the SGX when they list.

3. Currently you have 2 options. 
a) Do Nothing. You either continue holding and do nothing. The Australian share registry will send you a PHYSICAL HARD PAPER certificate of your holdings (shares). This is worth money = your share value. To trade this in the future you will need to find a broker that can/will trade paper certificates on the SGX. 
Positives: easy for now, no need to setup an international trading account now, no fees now.
Negative: you need to find a broker to trade this in the future. I haven't done it before but i read it's not as simple as opening your Commsec account.

b) Open an International Trading account with a Broker that will trade your holdings on the SGX. LNC's email send they made agreements with several local brokers: CommSec, Philip..., . 
CommSec international account open is probably the easiest for you. Call them up and they will assist you in opening one up. Theres monthly fees ($2/month or more) and $60/yr if you don't make a trade. (Values are approx).
Once you have an account setup, you need to send LNC the Nomination Form released on their website to tell them where to 'digitally send' your shares. This means they make a digital transfer to CommSec International (Pershing is the custodian) and CommSec International then link them up to your name and account.
THE DUE DATE TO SEND THE FORM IN IS THIS FRIDAY 22-NOV-13. Otherwise you default to Option A above.

Please just call CommSec. They will explain it all to you but do summaries the points above I just wrote into your own words to get a better understanding. 

At the end of the day, if you are a long term trader happy to hold, then the physical share certificate isn't a big deal until you need to trade it. 

Hope that helps, Ben.


----------



## basilio

On the last day of trading on Friday 38 million shares were moved. Final price for LNC was 99.5c.

If they really have a good future even in the short term I think those last shares will be a bargain when its relisted.


----------



## Mr Z

Commsec will not and cannot deal with a paper certificate.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> On the last day of trading on Friday 38 million shares were moved. Final price for LNC was 99.5c.
> 
> If they really have a good future even in the short term I think those last shares will be a bargain when its relisted.




Yes Bas. The S/P finished at $1.08 at 4.00 pm and in the auction afterwards 15M of those 38M changed hands lowering the price to 99.5c 

Some of those may have been institutions that were restricted to investing on the ASX.

The latest announcement by LNC today has extended the deadline to transfer your shares to a SGX trader from today to next Friday (29 Nov).

Hopefully we will have some positive announcements by or at the AGM next Thursday.


----------



## notting

Well wasn't that a terrific ride!


----------



## basilio

The story continues...

LNC has just released its prospectus.  Just an overview of their operations and, I assume, full disclosure of risks, opportunities ect.

Mickel  would you care to check it over and give us a heads up on the salient points ?  Shouldn't take you more than, say 10 minutes ?

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131126/pdf/42l4f7f83m3csx.pdf
Plus 4 more documents


(PS  You could  warm up with War and Peace ?)


----------



## basilio

So...
Guess who is leading the charge to a cleaner world reducing the effcts of CO2 and producing clean energy from Coal.

Yep Peter Bond.

http://view.digipage.net/go/climatechangecop19/#40


----------



## Smurf1976

I'm truly amazed at the media / marketing abilities of this company. The same story has been popping up in the headlines for SA on news.com.au literally all year and it's there again today.

Something seems odd with this. Not even the likes of BHP, Woolworths etc or even someone like McDonald's or Shell could manage this sort of publicity. 

Here's a link to the actual story. It's the same article that's been popping up since January. In short, it amounts to one almighty ramp for the stock - apparently they've got more oil than the likes of Iran, Iraq, Venezuela or Canada with only Saudi Arabia having slightly more. 

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...n-fuel-australia/story-e6frea83-1226560401043

My opinion - if it was really such a massive goer then the likes of Exxon, Shell etc would have taken over Linc long ago. Look at all the fuss about Iraq over the past couple of decades. It seems a tad pointless if there's twice as much oil in South Australia just waiting to be developed. I don't buy it.....


----------



## notting

They have gone to Singapore because the scam is old and tired here
The stock would have gone below 20c and stayed there IMO.


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> The story continues...
> 
> LNC has just released its prospectus.  Just an overview of their operations and, I assume, full disclosure of risks, opportunities ect.
> 
> Mickel  would you care to check it over and give us a heads up on the salient points ?  Shouldn't take you more than, say 10 minutes ?
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131126/pdf/42l4f7f83m3csx.pdf
> Plus 4 more documents
> 
> 
> (PS  You could  warm up with War and Peace ?)






OK Bas, here is my summary of  those various announcements last week (I won't confirm I read every page) -

Parts 4 & 5 cover the  description of assets and past explorations and plans for future operations for New Emerald Coal P/L (NEC) which cover Blair Athol, Teresa, Pentland, and Dalby & Chinchilla coal tenements.

Part 3 covers the same for US Gulf Coast, Umiat and Wyoming Oil and Gas assets as well as Arckaringa Basin  reports.

Part 2 is a general proforma  document which sets out much financial information. However it leaves blank the number of shares to be issued and the issue price. These details will be completed in the final document to be issued on 9 Dec as advised in Part 1.

You can easily access all the announcements here - http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=lnc&timeframe=D&period=M


----------



## Mickel

More important (IMO) are these comments from the AGM last week-

Gas from UCG is the priority in Europe ($16-17) and Asia ($18-19) compared to USA ($3-4). Poland may well have the first producing UCG plant.

The exception is in Eastern Russia (with LLC YakutMinerals) where they will also be looking at GTL as the current operations there are paying $250 per bbl for diesel, most of which is transport costs. They plan on producing UCG as well for their power needs as the area is very isolated.

Bondy also stated that they are close to finalising a construction price for a 5000 bpd GTL plant for $50,000 per bbl.
This is approx. half of previous prices mentioned.

By the way the new listing date on the SGX is now 18 Dec.


http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-528.pdf


----------



## basilio

Nice one Mickel...

I was being funny with my suggestion that you paraphrase  the prospectus. It was a huge document.

Very interesting about the update on CG in Russia. Not quite sure what you mean by $50,000 bbl. for the GTL plant What was the estimated final cost of the 5000bpd plant ?

Cheers


----------



## Mickel

basilio said:


> Nice one Mickel...
> 
> I was being funny with my suggestion that you paraphrase  the prospectus. It was a huge document.
> 
> Very interesting about the update on CG in Russia. Not quite sure what you mean by $50,000 bbl. for the GTL plant What was the estimated final cost of the 5000bpd plant ?
> 
> Cheers




Yes, I gathered that, Bas, with your "PS" comment, but thought I'd give an overall description of approx. 1500 pages of ASX announcements.

Regarding GTL plant construction, indications by Velocys (was Oxford Catalysts) over the past 12 to 18 months were that the plant would cost $100,000 for each boo per day produced. That would be $500M for a 5,000 bpd plant. This was a huge blowout from the original estimates in 2007/8 of approx. $800M for a 20,000 bpd plant.

This news that LNC is looking to finalise construction at a price of only $50,000 per bbl per day ($250M) is great news. 

There is an anticipation of much good news to come over the next few months, eg Cedar Point oil production, Umiat results, UCG in Poland and Africa and Arck Basin JV to mention some.


----------



## Smurf1976

Mickel said:


> Gas from UCG is the priority in Europe ($16-17) and Asia ($18-19) compared to USA ($3-4). Poland may well have the first producing UCG plant.



It's the constantly changing business objectives that worry me about this company. 

At various times their primary aim has been diesel from UCG electricity from UCG, conventional oil and gas extraction, shale oil extraction and processing, simply finding more coal to either sell the resource or mine it, and now it seems they want to simply sell the UCG gas as gas.

It's like trying to create Woolworths etc if you've never run a shop before. You'd at least want to get _something_ up and running, supermarkets or fashion or hardware or whatever, before trying to create a retail empire that sells practically everything under numerous trading names. The same applies to Linc - I'd like to see them actually develop something into a major business prior to trying to get all sorts of other things up and running.

Fundamentally, UCG is the major technical asset that the company has. They'd be better off just going into the UCG business as such, and supplying that gas under long term contracts to someone else who then produces the diesel, electricity or whatever else they do with it. Linc is simply trying to bite off too much, too soon in my opinion.


----------



## Mickel

Smurf1976 said:


> It's the constantly changing business objectives that worry me about this company. ....
> 
> 
> 
> Fundamentally, UCG is the major technical asset that the company has. They'd be better off just going into the UCG business as such, and supplying that gas under long term contracts to someone else who then produces the diesel, electricity or whatever else they do with it. Linc is simply trying to bite off too much, too soon in my opinion.




I understand your worries/concerns Smurf.

I also understand that their plans needed to change with the GFC and subsequent non sale of Teresa (for $1.5B) and reluctance of Qld Govt to licence UCG while giving CSG a free run. On top of that, the coal price then collapsed.

The major Technical Assets (IP) that LNC has are both UCG and the GTL processes and of the two, GTL is the more profitable.
LNC initially bought up many coal leases for very little cost in the hope of finding deep underground coal suitable for UCG/GTL. Surprise ! surprise ! they found a lot of conventional coal that they sold/tried to sell -ie Carmichael/Teresa. In buying the oilfields in the US they gave themselves some cashflow while refining their UCG/GTL processes and working towards approval of these processes by Govt Authorities.

LNC has many 1st class assets and the Directors believe that being listed on the SGX will allow Asian and US investors to better appreciate these assets and give the Company more stability. Of course, LNC will need to start producing positive cashflow and profits for this to happen long term. 

I believe that increased oil production in USA in the short term, successful drilling at Umiat (by 4/14) and an UCG plant operating by end of 2014 will go a long way towards that.


----------



## Mickel

Now that Linc (TI6) is listed on the Singapore Exchange, you can view live prices here -

http://www.google.com/finance?q=SGX:TI6&ei=camyUvKbMMWbkgX9xQE

Linc closed on its debut day yesterday at S$1.43

Today it closed at S$1.46 which converts to A$1.30

Singapore Exchange trading hours are (Brisbane time) 11.00 am to 7.00 pm  (yes, 8 hours of trading).

There have been no new announcements since listing.


----------



## notting

So it's now losing money on the falling Australian dollar for potential international investors.
AU is down from 1.38 to 1.12 against the SGD. What a decision!
If it had anything you could call attractive those internationals you mention would find it more compelling if it was still listed on the ASX given it would now be cheaper for them in AU $ even if it's share price had not continued to fall.  Good one Bondi


----------



## Mickel

notting said:


> So it's now losing money on the falling Australian dollar for existing Australian investors.
> AU is down from 1.38 to 1.12 against the SGD. What a decision!
> If it had anything you could call attractive those internationals you mention would find it more compelling if it was still listed on the ASX given it would now be cheaper for them in AU $




Notting , your signature panel advises us that you are dyslexic and you have now proved it.

Firstly Linc only changed to SGX yesterday. Today the Aussie $ dropped 2c to the USD. If the Aussie $ had also dropped by a similar margin to the S$ we would be better off in Aussie $ terms and so would potential international investors.

But, to date, the Aussie $ has only dropped with the USD so your figures (whatever hat you pulled them from) are wrong.


----------



## notting

True I'm clouded by my intense dislike for this company and the way its run so unfair to its shareholders.  Wish you had sold it when it was up


----------



## notting

Mickel said:


> But, to date, the Aussie $ has only dropped with the USD so your figures (whatever hat you pulled them from) are wrong.




It kind of just makes it worse for Ausi share holders as AU is actually up today against the SDG so existing holders like yourself have been harmed by the timing of it as well if the AU has bottomed for a while.

 My comments were regarding Bond's statement that it will be more attractive to internationals (new investors, not existing losers).  It won't be because the price is more expensive than it would have been given the fall of the AU vs SDG in the past week when the pricing was well and done.  That's what I was on about. 
Yes, I did get the float date wrong I just assumed that it had been going for about a week and that would have been good for existing holders but they don't even get that - screwed again.


----------



## System

On December 19th, 2013, Linc Energy Limited (LNC) was removed from the ASX's official list at the request of the Company.


----------



## Mickel

Linc currently trading around SGD1.51

Check it out here- http://www.google.com/finance?q=SGX:TI6&ei=vT2xUoiVBsWtkgXeEg


----------



## Mickel

Linc has received A$20 M from Exxarro as 2nd tranche payt under their agreement.

http://lincenergy.listedcompany.com...34_TI6_7F6712B604570CE648257C6200022257.1.pdf


----------



## skc

Haven't heard from these guys for a while... some AFR coverage.



> Now is not a good time to specialise in technology that extracts petroleum from coal. Just have a look at Linc's share price, down more than 90 per cent since it relocated from Australia to Singapore in late 2013.
> 
> Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/peter-bond-20150909-gjim32#ixzz3lHgDuQYQ
> Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook




Last traded price = 12c SGD.


----------



## notting

Now you can understand why I was bashing them up so much all those years ago - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4010&p=804904&viewfull=1#post804904

and

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4010&p=762843&viewfull=1#post762843

and 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4010&p=757193&viewfull=1#post757193



> Former Australian listed market darling Linc Energy has entered voluntary administration with the oil and gas focused company buckling over an ongoing debt restructure and recapitalisation.
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...s-on-china-20160414-go6yav.html#ixzz45rFnTpcx




Please watch the video!!! -

[video]http://moneymappress.com/pro/ECLAus795.php?code=EECLP209&n=ECLAUS795EDIMMP&o=931638&s=937070&u=52134857&l=542933&g=96&r=Milo[/video]


----------



## qldfrog

not surprised, I lost 2k...But they moved to Singapore so no one will be sue anyone for the crap they actually said: Saudia Arabia size resources etc was the talk of the day..


----------



## skc

notting said:


> Now you can understand why I was bashing them up so much all those years ago -




They are worth bashing no doubt...but they were also a coal-related company.

Peabody filed for Chapter 11 earlier this week... that says enough about the state of the industry.

5 years ago no one would have predicted the rapid demise of coal. It was the black gold, and there's insatiable demand in China followed by India. We will always need to burn coal to generate electricity and make the steel, right?!

I wonder if the oil industry will head down that path.


----------



## qldfrog

just to help: there was a declaration of loss made on 27/05/2016 and it can be written off
a *loss declaration *has been issued and the capital loss can therefore be claimed in the financial year the declaration is issued - in this case 2015/16
link (sic!!!) is dead


----------

