# ABC - Adbri Limited



## roland (8 April 2008)

Adelaide Brighton keeps coming up when I am looking around at good stock picks. Both Aegis and Comsec have rated it as quite a promising stock and have strong buys.

Again, on tonights "Aegis Weekly Focus" it appears again:



> Adelaide Brighton (ABC) posted a record FY07 result. Sales and EBIT (excluding share of net profit of joint ventures) increased 12% each, while adjusted NPAT saw a 14% increase in FY07. Given many of ABC's facilities are now running at capacity and ABC is facing continued high energy costs,
> we have cut our EPS forecasts by 10% and 15% in FY08 and FY09, respectively. However, our sales revenue forecasts remain strong and we maintain our BUY on ABC.




The chart looks like fun for intraday/intraweek week trading. I may have a go if we can get an entry below $3.50.

Anyone else have further thoughts on ABC?


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## roland (8 April 2008)

mmm, I read a little further and have a page to add. Such a great product - cement ... have to learn more about it. Happy reading


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## So_Cynical (25 March 2011)

I brought into ABC today at $3.16  i like the cement business and cement related building products, ABC looks to be a very stable and reliable business with big revenues and lots of exposure to the economic growth cycle so should give lots of opportunity's for a low cost average position builder like me. 

Some things to like about ABC

Number 1 in Concrete product sales.
Number 1 Cement and clinker importer.
Number 1 Lime manufacturer.
Number 2 Cement and Clinker supplier to the Aust construction industry.
2+ Billion Market cap.
1+ Billion in revenue (2010)
Gearing - net debt/equity 15.9% (Debt 148 mill)
Very low currency risk - 100% Aussie play.

http://www.adbri.com.au/pdfs/2010/dec/CombinedASXDec2010Presentation.pdf

ABC have been very busy over the last decade conservatively growing the business via smallish acquisitions building their position in the Lime and aggregates market, they are very deliberately looking to buy business that bolt on to their vertical integration model.

I reckon there is some potential (fundamentals) for the ABC share price to channel and generally go sideways for a year or three, which would suit me very well.

http://www.adbri.com.au/
~


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## So_Cynical (18 April 2011)

The 2010 Adelaide Brighton Annual report was released today

http://www.adbri.com.au/pdfs/2011/AR/AR2010_ABL_Annual_Report.pdf

Have to say im impressed..pretty much all the good numbers up and the bad numbers down  ABC management has (apparently) delivered their 10th consecutive record profit, with the building cycle near bottom over the last 2 years...tremendous up side i would think once the economy really gets going.

Anyway some impressive charts etc from the 2010 annual report below. 
~


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## So_Cynical (9 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> I brought into ABC today at $3.16  i like the cement business and cement related building products, ABC looks to be a very stable and reliable business with big revenues and lots of exposure to the economic growth cycle so should give lots of opportunity's for a low cost average position builder like me.




I took a little average down today, just after the open @ $2.29 ~ i have a feeling that in years to come i wont regret it....some crazy prices today!!

At $2.29 ~ factoring the last 2 divis forward gives a gross yield of around 12.2% :


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## McCoy Pauley (10 August 2011)

Not a company I follow, but given the state of the housing market and the possible imposition of a carbon tax materially adversely affecting ABC's costs, that seems a gutsy move, So_Cynical.


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## So_Cynical (10 August 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Not a company I follow, but given the state of the housing market and the possible imposition of a carbon tax materially adversely affecting ABC's costs, that seems a gutsy move, So_Cynical.




The carbon tax is a certainty IMO and all cement manufacturers will have to pay it i would think, ABC also import cement so wont lose any competitive advantage because if the Australasian manufacturing industry proves to be uncompetitive with imports they will simply cease manufacturing and import only. 

Cement is a vital commodity and closely linked to the health of the domestic economy, its hard to imagine any sustained growth without growth in cement sales....infrastructure development etc needs cement and ABC has the infrastructure to deliver that.

Cement is as safe as houses used to be  especially when your number 1 and carrying insignificant debt.


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## So_Cynical (1 November 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> (9th-August-2011 ) I took a little average down today, just after the open @ $2.29 ~ i have a feeling that in years to come i wont regret it....some crazy prices today!!
> 
> At $2.29 ~ factoring the last 2 divis forward gives a gross yield of around 12.2% :




Having a look over my portfolio tonight i noticed that i had by shear chance actually brought my last parcel of ABC shares at the bottom...bottom picked and actually fluked the bottom.

I like to think that you don't need to pick the bottom to do well, because in trying to pick bottom you end up buying enough cheap shares to bring your average price down enough to capture the bottom anyway....however still nice to actually buy one parcel right on the bottom. 

ABC has recovered nicely so far...for the record my average price for the super fund is 2.96 so down 3.5% and for my portfolio my average price is $3.01 so down 4.5% at the moment...but only because i did average down. 
~


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## pixel (2 December 2011)

I notinced that ABC sparked some interest as a potential breakout trade.
FWIW, I have been alerted to it several months ago, and identified a series of higher lows - higher highs. The primary resistance was established on September 1st at $2.88 - that was after the long-term Low, which gave rise to my initial alert. PR was then broken on October 13th, but volume and momentum dropped off immediately after.
Yesterday's renewed break resulted in a much better chance of a profitable trade, which was supported by today's continuation gap and increased volume.




If the rise continues, I will now treat the latest High as the new Primary Resistance and average up into a breakout trade that has a potential target of $3.65.


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## pixel (2 December 2011)

ABC did follow through today;
but when it hit resistance and my short-term template suggested a deeper retracement, I decided to take profit after all. Especially ahead of a weekend, I often value cash in bank more than open trades weighing on my mind. (Some people can shrug it off and stay unemotional at all times. My psychological equilibrium benefits from a helping hand.)




On a daily chart, it's easier to see why I was somewhat concerned:
Imagine today's Close had been a little lower still, ending similar to the Shooting Star candle on November 9th; then check out the days after the 9th.


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## So_Cynical (2 December 2011)

Big move by ABC today with an intra day high of $3.27 .. over 10% in the last ten days putting 3 of my 4 parcels into profit and 1 parcel at break even.  ill open a sell order next week and see how i go.


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## pavilion103 (3 December 2011)

I exited today. 

I'm not sure if it can push a lot higher right now. 

A great couple of days profit.


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## pavilion103 (5 December 2011)

Interesting as it falls today on lower volume. It will be interesting to see if there is much supply around. 

Still some overhead resistance thought I feel.


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## pixel (6 December 2011)

pavilion103 said:


> I exited today.
> 
> I'm not sure if it can push a lot higher right now.
> 
> A great couple of days profit.



 same here 

If the gap to $2.92 is closed, but the support at $2.90 holds, I'll get back on board.
Otherwise I'm waiting for a new setup.


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## So_Cynical (4 May 2012)

I sold most of my first Parcel of ABC today (@3.20) taking a ridiculously low profit of 0.07% (3 CPS) seriously, well that was the profit on the trade  throw in the 2 dividends and its a little better at 19.5 CPS net, so 24 odd CPS gross...anyway its done and i have freed up a chuck of money and didn't except a loss.

Now because i only sold shares from my first entry (parcel) the average buy in price of my remaining shares is a quite respectable $2.80  I'm still very much a believer in this stock and hold a sizeable position in my super fund that i will hold on to....awaiting the inevitable break out.

ABC is range bound with 3.20ish being the top....and i just couldn't watch it go down again without taking out some of my capital.


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## notting (16 August 2012)

Disgusting!!
I was short this peace of crap for ages as it trended up for no reason against the broader market trend.
Got stopped out eventually and now it plunges as it should 'have' after reporting. 
Not happy Jan.


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## So_Cynical (16 August 2012)

notting said:


> Disgusting!!
> I was short this peace of crap for ages as it trended up for no reason against the broader market trend.
> Got stopped out eventually and now it plunges as it should 'have' after reporting.
> Not happy Jan.




LOL yep it just kept going sideways and up for 2 months...for no reason at all, the break out that i had waited a year for happend just after i gave up waiting  and now she's back down under $3 ~ goes to show ya just never know.

Actually ill been keen to buy in again (add to my free carry position) at under $2.85 ~ this is a great company.


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## notting (16 August 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Actually ill been keen to buy in again (add to my free carry position) at under $2.85 ~ this is a great company.




Yeah bought a bit today, just to feel what it's like on the other side!


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## RandR (29 November 2012)

Being number 1 in the country for lime they do seem to have somewhat of a competive advantage mostly due to the internal infrastructure the company has built for distribution, thus giving them an element of cost control. Despite being a strictly commodity business. It puts the business on a fuzzy grey line for me between being wonderful and average. I like it because of the competive advantage the company has ... but at the end of the day there just pushing concrete and other related products ... leaves them quite exposed in performance terms to the volatile bellweather of the economy. It seems like the kind of business to unload upon only at certain points in the economic cycle, but to avoid at most others. Yet it has offered relatively stable returns.


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## So_Cynical (29 November 2012)

RandR said:


> Despite being a strictly commodity business. It puts the business on a fuzzy grey line for me between being wonderful and *average*.




Average...seriously average.

the 10 year chart says it all, from $1.10 to $3.15 in ten years and $1.38 in FF dividends = $3.43 this is a great stock.

Look at the 10 year chart and take out the extremes of the 2007/8 bull and the GFC bottom and this is a solid stock, far from average, unless you call a 22% PA average gross return over ten years average.
~


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## skc (30 November 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Average...seriously average.
> 
> the 10 year chart says it all, from $1.10 to $3.15 in ten years and $1.38 in FF dividends = $3.43 this is a great stock.
> 
> ...




~15% p.a. compound over 10 yrs.

But it's probably more like +30% p.a. from year 1 to 5, and 0% p.a. from year 6-10.

Just got to get the timing right.


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## mrcleaner (30 November 2012)

Hi all

I'm not approaching this advice from a stock point of view but from one who has been in the building game for a couple of years. I'm sure the carbon tax has been widely discussed in this forum so we won't go into that. But by around 2016 Australia is moving to a carbon neutral building code of Australia. If anyone has built before your building will has to comply with the bca or it won't be built. There are a range of mechanisms to achieve this. However, cement is one of the heaviest emitters of co2 in the world. My advice is to find out whether they are investing in fly-ash substitution tech or another means of reducing the carbon footprint of cement!

Good luck!


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## So_Cynical (30 November 2012)

mrcleaner said:


> Hi all
> 
> I'm not approaching this advice from a stock point of view but from one who has been in the building game for a couple of years. I'm sure the carbon tax has been widely discussed in this forum so we won't go into that. But by around 2016 Australia is moving to a carbon neutral building code of Australia. If anyone has built before your building will has to comply with the bca or it won't be built. There are a range of mechanisms to achieve this. However, cement is one of the heaviest emitters of co2 in the world. My advice is to find out whether they are investing in fly-ash substitution tech or another means of reducing the carbon footprint of cement!
> 
> Good luck!




Google search for "carbon neutral building code of Australia" turns up nothing.

Are you just another denier?


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## Ves (30 November 2012)

Capital intensive, heavily diluted in the past, poor capital structure, no organic growth (and certainly not a scalable business model). Pass for me.

Earnings will grow at GDP growth at best going forward.  Low Return on Capital, plus fairly high payout ratio almost gaurantees this. 

If I was a librarian, then maybe, but the problem is the massive tailwinds in businesses like this provided by the real estate & mining boom of the last twenty years are not with us any more.  

If we have a steep recession then it might become a lot cheaper quickly. If this eventuates, and it is inevitable, they will raise capital again and holders will be further diluted.


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## RandR (10 January 2013)

I know you like the stock SC but honestly the dividends theyve been paying has been financed by debt, how long do you think they can maintain that yield for if its being financed by debt and not cash flow? As Ves has implied, what happens in a domestic downturn (or just a business downturn) to their cashflow, when they cant even finance dividend payments now in a 'not really so bad' time ?

Just like the larger miners and larger oils, I have a weak spot for these sorts of business (they get me all warm and fuzzy) but I know I probably shouldnt touch them, and so it is with ABC for me now.


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## So_Cynical (10 January 2013)

RandR said:


> I know you like the stock SC but honestly the dividends theyve been paying has been financed by debt, how long do you think they can maintain that yield for if its being financed by debt and not cash flow? As Ves has implied, what happens in a domestic downturn (or just a business downturn) to their cashflow, when they cant even finance dividend payments now in a 'not really so bad' time ?
> 
> Just like the larger miners and larger oils, I have a weak spot for these sorts of business (they get me all warm and fuzzy) but I know I probably shouldnt touch them, and so it is with ABC for me now.




Super Star Stock

Duopoly or Triopoly player across is operations, Aust wide operations, construction has bottomed, look at the latest new housing start figures...ABC is locked into the Aussie domestic growth story and now in the ASX100.

I just don't know how anyone can not like ABC..i just don't get it.

--

But i wouldn't be buying at over $2.90 personally.


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## RandR (11 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Super Star Stock
> 
> Duopoly or Triopoly player across is operations, Aust wide operations, construction has bottomed, look at the latest new housing start figures...ABC is locked into the Aussie domestic growth story and now in the ASX100.
> 
> ...




ok. in the last annual report, they only took in 64 million in cash over the year ... (once you take out the ppe that they expend on every year(its necessary for them to run the business)) yet paid out over 120 million in dividends ... the formula is pretty simple.

64-120= 56 million in new debt for the business to carry for the sake of that dividend. 

The latest half yearly also points in the same direction

cash inflow for latest half year was 15.7mill yet they paid 57 million in dividends.

15.7mill-57mill=  41 milion in new debt for the business to carry for the sake of that dividend.

so 18months in total of business performance, theyve increased debt by about a 100mill (in fact more then that because they made a 50mill acquisition) Purely for the sake of maintaining or increasing the dividend to shareholders.

Where do you think this trend puts them ? they can either hope that the construction industry and demand for concret lifts in Australia, or they will at some point have to reduce the dividend significantly. No doubt there is a time to hold this business (when construction industry is boooming) and the concrete is flowing in greater volumes. But is that time now? Its definitly not something to hold through the cycle imo.


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## So_Cynical (11 January 2013)

RandR said:


> The latest half yearly also points in the same direction
> 
> cash inflow for latest half year was 15.7mill yet they paid 57 million in dividends.
> 
> ...




When was it declared a crime to look after share holders? you make it sound like a bad thing..personally i like it, ABC is a great business that generates a lot of cash and when times are good ABC pay regular and special dividends and when times are bad they try and maintain dividends...i think that's great.

I looked at the last half year report and saw this.

 Revenue up 8.3%
 EBIT up 6.6%
 EPS up 9.3%
 Profit before tax up 6.7%
 Dividend no change (responsible?)
 Dividend payout ratio of 70.8%
 Gearing – net debt/equity 29.7%

And this is in a bad half year...seriously a bad half year in a bad 3 or 4 years.

http://www.adbri.com.au/pdfs/2012/august/ASXJun12resultspresentastionFINALICoverSheet.pdf


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## notting (11 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> ABC pay regular and special dividends and when times are bad they try and maintain dividends...i think that's great.




Great?
I think that's common sense.
Pitty there is so little of it elswhere.
That's an oxymoron.


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## robusta (12 January 2013)

notting said:


> Great?
> I think that's common sense.
> Pitty there is so little of it elswhere.
> That's an oxymoron.




The trouble with common sense is that it is not that common.


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## So_Cynical (12 January 2013)

notting said:


> Great?
> I think that's common sense.
> Pitty there is so little of it elswhere.
> That's an oxymoron.




+1 absolutely agree.


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## RandR (12 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> When was it declared a crime to look after share holders? you make it sound like a bad thing..personally i like it, ABC is a great business that generates a lot of cash and when times are good ABC pay regular and special dividends and when times are bad they try and maintain dividends...i think that's great.
> 
> I looked at the last half year report and saw this.
> 
> ...




Are you assuming that the last couple of years has been the bottom of the cycle for ABC ? You say the last 3 or 4 years has been bad for them, yet the last couple of financial years have had the highest revenues in ABC history. Indeed of the last few financial years the only one not to hit a record profit (and it was only by a very small margin) was 2012. 

This is my point im trying to make, yes, performance has been good, they have had a great decade. But on its current path of simply not generating enough cash to fund both ppe and shareholder dividends, what do you think the future holds if volumes/revenues decline at some point (which they inevitably will) As such it is not a stock to hold through a bad business cycle in Aust. Its definitly a decent ok business ... and a good stock to hold during a part of the cycle.

But Super Star Stock  .... it aint IMO


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## So_Cynical (12 January 2013)

RandR said:


> Are you assuming that the last couple of years has been the bottom of the cycle for ABC ?




Lets examine this in isolation, ABC is in the Australian building supply business, Cement, Concrete and manufactured building products.

New home and units starts have just bounced of a 11 year low (GFC excluded) are you suggesting that Australian housing will never recover? in spite of the ever increasing underlying (immigration and birth rate) demand? in spite of Australia's continuing GDP growth? in spite of the Continuing rise of Asia? in spite of the continuing 10 year commodities boom? in spite of the Soft commodities boom of the last decade, in spite of rising world consumption.

In spite of all that...Really?

I think we will have a continuation of normalcy, i think the world will go on, i think Asia is the centre of the post GFC world and i think Australia will benefit enormously from that, our geographic position and our core commodity industry's, ABC will benefit greatly from the flow on affects of that...and i think that's a no brainer.



RandR said:


> You say the last 3 or 4 years has been bad for them, yet the last couple of financial years have had the highest revenues in ABC history.




Look back over the annual reports (1 decade) and you will see a lot of new highs for ABC, record high revenues, record high debt, record high profits, record demand for cement and record high dividends from a few years back.

The last few years have been bad because the Aust housing industry has been in a downturn, there is a reluctance to spend money in the community and there is a well founded perception that house prices are to high, investors are sitting on the side lines in cash (more than half of all SMSF money is in cash) so i just cant see any other way to view the last 4 years for ABC other than bad.

And yet the profits continue, the business goes on, the acquisitions are just as important as ever and the dividends keep coming...and ill buy more at under $2.90


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## Ves (12 January 2013)

Are we looking at the same company?

EPS is more than 10% less than what it was in 2006.   Any growth they have achieved has been funded by debt and shareholder equity (which means it is certainly not "organic" as I mentioned in my previous post in this thread). Equity holder returns (free cash flow etc) looks diluted to me. You get less now than you did in 2006.

EBIT, revenues are all great figures - but when you need take recourse to funds from the bank and shareholders to achieve this headline growth - then it becomes questionable to me and certainly not a "no brainer."

I cannot say with any certainty that a dollar re-invested by this company will be worth more than a dollar in the future.


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## So_Cynical (12 January 2013)

Ves said:


> Are we looking at the same company?




Everyone is looking at the same company, just seeing different things, things influenced by all sorts of personal factors and life experiences...we can look at the factual numbers and see a glass half full or a glass half empty, a glass full of potential or a glass full of debt.

Remember CKF and the discussions we had in that thread?


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## Ves (12 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Remember CKF and the discussions we had in that thread?




Yes - time frame is still too short to see how that plays out too.  Give these both 5+ years and we shall see.


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## So_Cynical (21 February 2013)

Half year report out today...no surprises...presentation below.

http://www.adbri.com.au/pdfs/2013/Feb/ASX - Dec 12 results pres & cover sheet FINAL 210213.pdf


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## So_Cynical (28 November 2016)

RandR said:


> (12th-January-2013) Super Star Stock  .... it aint IMO






Ves said:


> (12th-January-2013) I cannot say with any certainty that a dollar re-invested by this company will be worth more than a dollar in the future.




After close to 4 years thought it was time for an update.  ABC share price has gone from $3.20 to $5.30 and paid 85 cents per share in FF dividends, a 200% (approximate) out performance of the ASX200

Super Star Stock.
~


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## So_Cynical (22 February 2018)

A new all time high of $6.80 today, no announcements, perhaps someone knows something?, yield keeps falling as the share price goes higher, the share price has more than doubled over the last 3 and a half years, the market must be expecting good results.

 2017 Full year result announcement 28 February 2018.


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## peter2 (27 April 2018)

Price took a hit when the results came out, but quickly recovered. Since then price has gone down with the market (index). Now that the market has bounced ABC is going higher as well. 

There was an opportunity for a short term trader to buy the BO. I was a one day too late since my order wasn't itm (my mistake). If price goes back to the recent high near 7.00 it would provide an acceptable RR. I've put this trade into the P2 trade book.


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## So_Cynical (11 February 2020)

ABC punished because Boral came out with a profit warning, building stocks are very cyclical.


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## System (25 May 2020)

On May 25th, 2020, Adelaide Brighton Limited changed its name to Adbri Limited.


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## Trav. (27 May 2020)

ABC (Adbri) daily chart below showing CAM counter trend signal in blue and BO level @ 2.66

Up 3.2% yesterday ( same as a lot of stocks ) but another to watch as things return to normal.


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## Trav. (27 May 2020)

Well that happened pretty quick, nice break out up 6.15% to close @ $2.77


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## Trav. (1 June 2020)

Just goes to show that you don't have to chase speccies to make a decent return. 

Another nice day for ABC today, thats ~14.5% since my first post on the 27/5 and ~17% since initial signal on scan






not held but happy that the scan picked it....you can't jump on them all but getting more confidence is the system.


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## finicky (1 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> daily chart below showing CAM counter trend signal in blue




Hi, briefly, what do you mean by this? Positive closes (close equal to or higher than open) + close above some moving average within a potential reversal pattern? 
Or your alternative question to access this article, "is antifa actually fascist?" or, skip question,


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## Trav. (1 June 2020)

finicky said:


> what do you mean by this?




Google CAM and Barbara Star and you find everything you need.

But in this particular case ADX falling, MACD rising and C>EMA


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## Movendi (3 July 2020)

-25% down , overraction to a lost contract?


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## Miner (3 July 2020)

I believe it was not an over reaction. Alcoa undertakes thorough and due diligence. It costed $70 M loss on one customer hit. Retention of customer is very important having dealt with them for 50 years. I suspect there could be new blood within Alcoa or ABC. They did not take a strategy to have plan B. Complacency - typical she will be right mate. Once ABC lost the contract with Alcoa would provide lots of ripples and waves with existing customers. So i see it is tip of the ice berg. Do not hold. Being a WA person, love the company. Held the stock earlier.
During COVID the share price slumped to $1.85.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200703/pdf/44k6kf002wh74v.pdf
I feel pity for this director who bought 100000 shares from previous holding of 5000 shares. As a director such a commitment a big money. so were you blind to get any signal how the company was doing in front of Alcoa. So if you did not have the far sighted sign, means there could be many more issues.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200522/pdf/44j1f98d2t2j73.pdf
Only 6 weeks back such a glorious presentation - where is ABC's risk analysis ??
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200519/pdf/44hy5tw70y7zb8.pdf


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## So_Cynical (4 July 2020)

It hurts when big customers leave or go bust etc, same for all businesses big and small, still trading at a little more than the VFC low of $1.85 just a few months back.


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2020)

System said:


> On May 25th, 2020, Adelaide Brighton Limited changed its name to Adbri Limited.



If I were ABC on July 25th, 2020, I'd change it's name back to Adelaide Brighton Limited. 

Fluffery contributes to boards being lulled away from the main business. 

gg


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## So_Cynical (6 October 2020)

Trading above $3 today for the first time since early July, all is forgiven it seems, SP back to where is was 12 months ago..
~


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## Trav. (1 November 2020)

Bad week for ABC as it lost -10% and with it my profits have gone as well....

Closed back below $3 and I hope that it was just a bad week and things will turn around next week 🎢


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## BlindSquirrel (14 December 2020)

Trav, you and I seem to be tracking some of the same tickers! This is what I'm seeing today.




A broadening descending wedge on the weekly with an ascending wedge in the short term - if that breaks bullish then it will indeed be a fun ride! I'm currently up almost 50% (I bought in on the Alcoa news dip in early July).
Macro climate indicates that this should be a great time to be selling cement products - I work for a competitor of theirs so while it is fun to stick it to them, I like this rising tide!


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## rnr (19 January 2021)

BlindSquirrel said:


> Trav, you and I seem to be tracking some of the same tickers! This is what I'm seeing today.
> View attachment 116317
> 
> A broadening descending wedge on the weekly with an ascending wedge in the short term - if that breaks bullish then it will indeed be a fun ride! I'm currently up almost 50% (I bought in on the Alcoa news dip in early July).
> Macro climate indicates that this should be a great time to be selling cement products - I work for a competitor of theirs so while it is fun to stick it to them, I like this rising tide!









It would appear as though ABC has found support at around the $2.98 mark.
Price opened today at $3.01 and has traded as high as $3.06.
Will support continue to hold at $2.98?
My take on an a-b-c wave count.
Cheers, Rob


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## BlindSquirrel (19 January 2021)

It's lost the rising wedge, the measured move from there brings the target to the 2.85 support line. I think that would be a nice entry or top up point. It almost coincides with a re-test of the descending broadening wedge on the longer time frame!


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## Trav. (19 January 2021)

BlindSquirrel said:


> Trav, you and I seem to be tracking some of the same tickers! This is what I'm seeing today.



@BlindSquirrel sorry mate, I missed your post last year.

I am not currently holding, but I checked my CAM system and there is a trail stop active at the $2.98 level which interestingly coincides with @rnr support level.


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## peter2 (13 June 2021)

*ABC* is not ready yet but it will be soon. There's been a two year down trend and the current base is one year old. Price looks likely to break-out of the horizontal resistance soon. I like the series of higher lows forming the ascending triangle pattern. 

This is a Weinstein Stage 1 and the BO-HR will mark the start of Stage 2. 
This is a classic Mark Minervini volatility contraction pattern (VCP - code 52W 42/15 3T). Each dip is smaller than the prior dip (forming the higher lows. Mark prefers waiting until his pattern sets up in stage 2. He waits for the instos to buy first.


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## Beaches (14 June 2021)

peter2 said:


> *ABC* is not ready yet but it will be soon. There's been a two year down trend and the current base is one year old. Price looks likely to break-out of the horizontal resistance soon. I like the series of higher lows forming the ascending triangle pattern.
> 
> This is a Weinstein Stage 1 and the BO-HR will mark the start of Stage 2.
> This is a classic Mark Minervini volatility contraction pattern (VCP - code 52W 42/15 3T). Each dip is smaller than the prior dip (forming the higher lows. Mark prefers waiting until his pattern sets up in stage 2. He waits for the instos to buy first.




Fundamentally there is very little to get excited about in the short term for ABC. They are Just treading water in the current market. Increased demand from the mining industry has only offset weakness in the building sector.


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## divs4ever (11 February 2022)

Adbri signs supply contract with OZ Minerals

 Adbri Limited (“Adbri” or “the Company”) (ASX:ABC) is pleased to announce an agreement with OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) (through their respective subsidiaries) for the supply of cementitious materials to the OZ Minerals Carrapateena mine in South Australia.
 The contract value is around $10 million over a three-year term, with options to extend to 2027. In addition to the supply of cement, Adbri will also supply aggregate and sand from the Company’s hard rock and sand quarries in South Australia, as well as providing supporting logistics services. Managing Director & CEO, Nick Miller said, “Adbri is pleased to build on our long-term relationship with OZ Minerals.
 This contract is in addition to our existing agreement to supply the OZ Minerals Prominent Hill mine and demonstrates the strength of our local integrated manufacturing footprint serving the South Australian market.” 

 DYOR

i hold ABC ( 'free-carried ' ) i also hold OZL ( 'free-carried ' )

 curses i was hoping to add more cheap 

 but surely a $10 million 3 year contract  isn't enough to trigger a trading halt ( which it seems to be in )


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## peter2 (13 April 2022)

Poor old Adbri. It just can't get going higher with any conviction. Being in an emission intensive industry it's going to be hard to sell itself into the ESG crowd. Seems it's going to try on May 2nd.

I wonder if they've talked with *CXL* yet? If *ABC* could capture and store CO2 in their cement it could a winner.

Vale, *ABC* you were such a smooth mover and a swing traders dream stock.


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## divs4ever (13 April 2022)

am dreaming to buy some more  (  i have a top-up order currently in the market )

 Russia will kill the Climate Change agenda  , because i very much doubt they will let  the obnoxious EU  stagger along until the end of 2024 to replace Russian fossil fuels 

 so the EU climate scam must collapse into a pile of hypocrisy

 i would have thought this whole  niche would have been doing better by now  , but eventually  infrastructure will need to be repaired and replaced  , so i intend to carefully  add more while the sky is gloomy

 PS i hold ABC 'free-carried '   buying @ $3.10 and $2.80  during 2011 , and reducing to rescue the invested cash in November 2017 @ $6.35


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## So_Cynical (19 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> Poor old Adbri. It just can't get going higher with any conviction. Being in an emission intensive industry it's going to be hard to sell itself into the ESG crowd. Seems it's going to try on May 2nd.
> 
> I wonder if they've talked with *CXL* yet? If *ABC* could capture and store CO2 in their cement it could a winner.
> 
> Vale, *ABC* you were such a smooth mover and a swing traders dream stock.



I attended the Adbri AGM today, no mention of Calix specifically but their Net Zero Emissions roadmap clearly states that Adbri is relying on roughly 70% of their emission reductions to come form "Breakthrough Technologies" so basically they have no idea how zero will be achieved.

My other takeaway from the AGM is just how much of a gravy train public company's are, all the board members standing for re-election have the correct mix of skills and experience to provide valuable contributions the the board etc etc, so much shameless self promotion.

One idea put to the board had some serious merit, the idea was to link executive bonuses to shareholder bonuses, so when a director or CEO gets X bonus shareholders get a fixed percentage of that as well, makes perfect sense to me.


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## Dona Ferentes (19 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> Poor old Adbri. It just can't get going higher with any conviction. Being in an emission intensive industry it's going to be hard to sell itself into the ESG crowd. Seems it's going to try on May 2nd.
> 
> I wonder if they've talked with *CXL* yet? If *ABC* could capture and store CO2 in their cement it could a winner.



And today's Announcement:
_Calix CXL awarded a $11m grant from the Australian Government’s Carbon Capture, Use and Storage Hubs and Technologies Program to develop the world’s first commercial-scale process for the manufacture of low emissions lime with *Adbri *(ASX: ABC). _


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## So_Cynical (19 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And today's Announcement:
> _Calix CXL awarded a $11m grant from the Australian Government’s Carbon Capture, Use and Storage Hubs and Technologies Program to develop the world’s first commercial-scale process for the manufacture of low emissions lime with *Adbri *(ASX: ABC). _



AGM finished at 11am and in the afternoon this announcement, Calix is basically the only organisation globally offering any kind a industrial level abatement, they pretty much have the market to themselves at the moment.


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## divs4ever (20 May 2022)

Sydney, Australia | 19th May, 2022 – Australian environmental technology company Calix
Limited (ASX:CXL) (“Calix” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce it has been awarded a
$11m grant from the Australian Government’s Carbon Capture, Use and Storage (“CCUS”)
Hubs and Technologies Program to develop the world’s first commercial-scale process for the
manufacture of low emissions lime with Adbri (ASX:ABC).
Highlights:
• Calix to receive $11m to develop a low emissions lime kiln with key project partner
Adbri, as well as CarbonTP and the Heavy Industry Low Emissions Technology CoOperative Research Centre (“HILT CRC”).
• The project will be located at Kwinana, Western Australia and provide low emissions
lime for alumina, gold, and other industries across Western Australia.
• The plant will use Calix’s Low Emissions Intensity Lime and Cement (“LEILAC”)
technology to demonstrate the use of renewable power and grid load balancing, assess
alternative energy sources such as hydrogen, and the efficient capture of CO2 process
emissions.
• Captured CO2 is planned to be provided to the proposed South West Hub Carbon
Capture and Storage (“CCS”) project.
The project, undertaken by Calix in collaboration with key partner Adbri, will help accelerate
Calix’s LEILAC technology by building and operating the world’s first commercial-scale
process for the manufacture of low emissions lime. The proposed plant, at Kwinana, WA, will;
(i) produce lime using renewable power,
(ii) demonstrate grid load balancing by flexibly operating only during peak renewable
electricity production / low electricity cost periods,
(iii) assess alternative energy sources such as hydrogen and alternative fuels, and
(iv) capture the CO2 emitted from the process.
Once the proposed South West Hub CCS project is operational, CO2 can be fed into the
system for permanent storage, creating truly zero emissions lime.
The project objectives are aligned with the Government’s Technology Roadmap to reach net
zero emissions by 2050 and to lower the cost of CCS to less than $20/tonne. The use of low
emissions lime will be directed to the trade-exposed alumina, nickel, rare-earth and gold
producers to reduce the embodied emissions of their products.
With the $11m in funding secured from the Australian Government, Calix and Adbri will now
proceed with the next stages of the project under the Heads of Agreement announced in March
2021, including the finalisation of commercial terms and further technical work.
Calix and Adbri anticipate undertaking a feasibility study for the project followed by a front-end
engineering and design phase. The plant construction and demonstration is expected to
include raw material feedstock contributed by Adbri and would test multiple fuel and energy
options including natural gas, hydrogen and renewable electricity with load switching.
Calix Managing Director and CEO Phil Hodgson said:
“A few years ago, I doubted a world-first commercial scale application of our technology would
have been built in Australia, and as a result our efforts were concentrated offshore. However,
with the support of the Federal Government and the Technology Investment Roadmap, the
HILT-CRC, and companies such as Adbri, who are now starting to lead low emissions efforts,
it is now a reality. I am proud our first commercial scale lime kiln is being developed here in
Australia, creating local jobs, utilising and developing local talent, and helping to future-proof
our vital local manufacturing sector.”
Adbri Managing Director and CEO Nick Miller said:
“We welcome the Federal Government’s support as part of its Technology Investment
Roadmap. The funding commitment represents a significant milestone in our collaboration with
Calix to develop carbon capture and storage technology to reduce emissions from lime
production.
“As a leading Australian producer of lime aspiring to be net zero by 2050, we recognise it is a
difficult manufacturing process to abate. Transformative technology-led partnerships like this
one with Calix form a key part of our own pathway to net zero by 2050, reducing our emissions
profile while supporting the decarbonisation of our end-market customers in the alumina, gold
and rare-earths sector.”
HILT-CRC CEO, Felicity Lloyd said:
“This project is an important step in demonstrating pathways to reduce the emissions of CO2
from heavy industry for lime, and then cement. The major sectors of aluminium and steel are
users of lime, and the project will be of direct interest to them in better understanding how to
reduce the emissions intensity of their products. Calix technology is also applicable to the
green alumina and steel manufacturing process, so this project will build capacity and knowhow to support such future opportunities.”
This announcement has been authorised for release to the ASX by:-
Phil Hodgson
Managing Director and CEO
Calix Limited
9-11 Bridge Street
Pymble
NSW 2073
Ph +61 2 8199 7400

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 i  hold ABC ( 'free-carried' )


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## Dona Ferentes (22 August 2022)

another silly ASX code for search engines

ABC results out today. Market not impressed, and down nearly 20%. And a lot of conditionals in the outlook.

2022 Outlook
The current *uncertain *economic and operating environment makes it *difficult *to provide quantitative guidance at this time. Subject to these uncertainties, demand for our products from the residential, infrastructure, commercial and mining sectors is expected to remain strong in 2H22. Further out-of-cycle price increases *will assist *Adbri in actively managing inflationary pressures, with pricing traction key to our ability to deliver.  We anticipate strong demand for cement, although building and project completion timelines are being extended due to materials and labour shortages. Lime volumes are anticipated to be stable in H2 versus H1. Lime pricing is expected to improve with new customers seeking reliable domestic supply due to supply chain disruptions experienced by importers. Demand is expected to remain strong for concrete and aggregates to the end of the year, and _*if *_weather abates in NSW, will be buoyed by the commencement of delayed projects and flood recovery works. *Softness *in retail spending is expected to impact masonry demand, with increased interest rates impacting household discretionary spend.  
Gross cost savings of circa $10.0 million for the year, will only *partially offset *ongoing cost headwinds in areas including pallets, shipping, labour, power, fuel and raw material prices.  Excluding business acquisitions, 2022 capex investment is estimated to be approximately $300.0 million, including circa 40% for the Kwinana Upgrade project.

Hard to make a buck:


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## divs4ever (22 August 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> another silly ASX code for search engines
> 
> ABC results out today. Market not impressed, and down nearly 20%. And a lot of conditionals in the outlook.
> 
> ...



 impressed ?? no  

 but willing to add extras  ( which i did at the open )

 sadly the price has kept sliding 

 so i might have to decide IF to grab some more sub $2

 has been a roller-coaster  ride over the last 11 years  , but have still had a better outcome than my adventure with BLD

 sadly i see cost pressures continue  , but that is just a reflection of the current economy


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## KevinBB (17 October 2022)

If they changed their name back to Adelaide Brighton Cement I might be tempted to buy some at these prices. I have no idea who Adbri is.

KH
(living in the past)


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## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

i grabbed a few extra early this morning  ,  but yes  name changes like that throw brand reputation into the dumpster 

 but really  what is the ( mid-term ) future of civil construction  in Australia   , i suspect it is rather dark and grim 

 tried to pick up some cheap BLD this morning ( hoping they will eventually convert into SVW shares  [ i hold SVW )   but missed , maybe another day


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## finicky (19 October 2022)

Not a chart I'd be buying, I anticipate lower, but seems a meat and potatoes (cement, masonary and sand) company that is historically 'cheap' now that it's a lower price than the GFC - albeit without the earnings power of back then.
But trading at 0.7 x book value when it can reasonably be expected to get back to something like 9% ROE in future years? Just got a new cost cutter CEO.

Not Held
Not buying







*All Data Monthly*


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## Smurf1976 (2 January 2023)

One of my picks for the 2023 full year trading competition.

On the fundamental side, demand for the product isn't about to disappear. Sure there might be some who see an issue with CO2 emissions and so on, which are inherent to cement production by its very nature, but cement isn't becoming obsolete indeed it's a key component of large scale infrastructure.

Add in at least somewhat lower energy costs being likely, at least in the short term, and I think it's oversold.


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## divs4ever (2 January 2023)

Smurf1976 said:


> One of my picks for the 2023 full year trading competition.
> 
> On the fundamental side, demand for the product isn't about to disappear. Sure there might be some who see an issue with CO2 emissions and so on, which are inherent to cement production by its very nature, but cement isn't becoming obsolete indeed it's a key component of large scale infrastructure.
> 
> Add in at least somewhat lower energy costs being likely, at least in the short term, and I think it's oversold.



i was kinda hoping  it would slide a little lower so i could buy some extras 

 good luck


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