# Myer IPO



## stocksontheblock (11 September 2009)

I have been reading about this for a little while now. Looks like with some of the figures out today they are doing well (?), and it would appear they have confirmed they are on the road to list on the market.

For me, I think this might be a good one to get in on, yet it just depends on what the IPO offer is.

So, to all you boffins out there that actually understand how prices are reached and why they come up with the price they do, I ask, what should I expect to be a realistic IPO amount? A ball park is fine with me, yet trying to get an understanding as to what might happen.

I sure don’t expect it to be 20cents, yet I hope its not $5.


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## Agentm (11 September 2009)

been watching the whole show from delisting- private ownership- ipo

well run and the owners will make a killing here, and good on them.

i view the myer ipo as very interesting and well timed myself


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## prawn_86 (11 September 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> I sure don’t expect it to be 20cents, yet I hope its not $5.




Why does the price matter?  It's market cap you should be looking at.


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## stocksontheblock (11 September 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Why does the price matter?  It's market cap you should be looking at.




I guess to make the purchase worthwhile – number of shares; at $5 I won’t be able to get as many as if, for example it was $2.

Maybe as you suggest – look at market cap, I might be looking at this the wrong way.

Just to add – I see the prospectus is due out on the 28th September. So maybe I will have my answer sooner rather than later.


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## The Owls (11 September 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> Just to add – I see the prospectus is due out on the 28th September. So maybe I will have my answer sooner rather than later.




With regards a prospectus I would like to know how do I order one.


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## swm79 (11 September 2009)

if you'd been watching this and wanted to get in you should have been in the Myer notes back in June when they were sitting at $91 (face value of $100) with a coupon interest rate of 10.19% - yeilding 14.6% at maturity (2013).... and THEN you get to convert that money into shares at a 2.5% discount when they float!


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## skc (11 September 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> I guess to make the purchase worthwhile – number of shares; at $5 I won’t be able to get as many as if, for example it was $2.
> 
> Maybe as you suggest – look at market cap, I might be looking at this the wrong way.
> 
> Just to add – I see the prospectus is due out on the 28th September. So maybe I will have my answer sooner rather than later.




Definitely looking at this the wrong way. How's number of shares got anything to do with anything?

IMO the Myer float should not be priced at anything above where David Jones is trading in terms of PE (not the actual dollar amount!). 

Unless you believe Jen Hawko is that much better than Miranda Kerr + Megan Gale.


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## jono1887 (11 September 2009)

skc said:


> Definitely looking at this the wrong way. How's number of shares got anything to do with anything?
> 
> IMO the Myer float should not be priced at anything above where David Jones is trading in terms of PE (not the actual dollar amount!).
> 
> Unless you believe Jen Hawko is that much better than Miranda Kerr + Megan Gale.




well if we were trading on their sales reps... i'd go long on Miranda Kerr + Megan Gale and short on Jen anyday


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## surfziggy (11 September 2009)

Anyone know where to pre register for the IPO? Or am I too late?


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## stocksontheblock (11 September 2009)

skc said:


> Definitely looking at this the wrong way. How's number of shares got anything to do with anything?




Maybe I am, however: Myer value = $2b to $2.5b. Sell min. 80%, based on value of $2.5b (easy math) they will look to raise $2b, correct? This is just an assumption, maybe they will sell less or the whole lot.

IPO will offer min. subscription of say $2000 or possibly $5000 parcels. I would be in it for short-term gain, no long term investing. Reason: I think the IPO offer will be to close to current market value and possibly might not have the legs to go a lot further. I could be very wrong, who knows? This would also depend on how many shares they issue - so a few at a high $ value may present great long term value, issue many at a low $ value and possibly to much dilution and not much upward SP value? Is this a fair assumption?

I see this like comparing DJS and JBH. Please note all approx. figures: DJS has over 500m shares and market cap of $2.5b, JBH 110m shares and market cap of $2.1b. JBH appears, to me, to have more movement to the upside because of this.

That’s why the offer price matters, to me at least. I am not interested in buying a small parcel based on a high listing price, for what might not be much of a short-term gain.

There are so many more of you who have the knowledge, so if this is complete BS and wrong, let me know please.


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## skc (11 September 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> Maybe I am, however: Myer value = $2b to $2.5b. Sell min. 80%, based on value of $2.5b (easy math) they will look to raise $2b, correct? This is just an assumption, maybe they will sell less or the whole lot.
> 
> IPO will offer min. subscription of say $2000 or possibly $5000 parcels. I would be in it for short-term gain, no long term investing. Reason: I think the IPO offer will be to close to current market value and possibly might not have the legs to go a lot further. I could be very wrong, who knows? This would also depend on how many shares they issue - so a few at a high $ value may present great long term value, issue many at a low $ value and possibly to much dilution and not much upward SP value? Is this a fair assumption?
> 
> ...




Yes this is complete bs and wrong. 

Based on your logic, you should go buy the lowest $ value share on the ASX as they offer more up side. You should also short sell something like Berkshire Hathaway as their share is way over valued at US$100,000.

Actually... re-reading your post you had no logic at all. Please change your signature line as it is clear that going to university has not helped you in pretending to be smart.


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## stocksontheblock (11 September 2009)

skc said:


> Yes this is complete bs and wrong.
> 
> Based on your logic, you should go buy the lowest $ value share on the ASX as they offer more up side. You should also short sell something like Berkshire Hathaway as their share is way over valued at US$100,000.




Based on what I said, no you wouldnt yet if you feel thats what I said then fair enough.



skc said:


> Actually... re-reading your post you had no logic at all. Please change your signature line as it is clear that going to university has not helped you in pretending to be smart.




Thanks for the completely useless input! Well then, come on, why is it wrong! Your the clever one, be helpful rather than simply a pain in the ***.


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## skyQuake (11 September 2009)

Only thing that matters is what PE it will be marketed at.

Actually probably none of that even matters.

Just buy in and sell for a stag profit.
Or sqeeze it for a bit like like CRZ


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## skc (11 September 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> Based on what I said, no you wouldnt yet if you feel thats what I said then fair enough.
> 
> Thanks for the completely useless input! Well then, come on, why is it wrong! *You are* the clever one, be helpful rather than simply a pain in the ***.




I am normally a lot more polite ... so apologies for my impatient response.



stocksontheblock said:


> Maybe I am, however: Myer value = $2b to $2.5b. Sell min. 80%, based on value of $2.5b (easy math) they will look to raise $2b, correct? This is just an assumption, maybe they will sell less or the whole lot.
> 
> IPO will offer min. subscription of say $2000 or possibly $5000 parcels. I would be in it for short-term gain, no long term investing. Reason: I think the IPO offer will be to close to current market value and possibly might not have the legs to go a lot further. I could be very wrong, who knows? This would also *depend on how many shares they issue - so a few at a high $ value may present great long term value*, issue many at a low $ value and possibly to much dilution and not much upward SP value? Is this a fair assumption?




Let's say Myer makes $100m a year and has no debt.

Scenario 1 - Owner sells/floats 100% at PE 15, giving Myer enterprise value of $1.5B, and issues 1.5B shares at $1 each. For a parcel of $5K you get 5000 shares.

Scenario 2 - Owner sells/floats 100% at PE 25, implying Myer enterprise value of $2.5B, and issues 25m shares at $100 each. For a parcel of $5K you get 50 shares.

So you are saying that scenario 2 (less number of shares at higher $ value) for some reason presents great long term value?



stocksontheblock said:


> I see this like comparing DJS and JBH. Please note all approx. figures: DJS has over 500m shares and market cap of $2.5b, JBH 110m shares and market cap of $2.1b. JBH appears, to me, to have more movement to the upside because of this.




How can you possibly tell a share's upside by looking at the number of shares and market cap alone? What about 50m shares and cap of $1B? Or 10m/$2B? 

It all depends on how much money the company makes and at what rate those earnings would grow, does it not?



stocksontheblock said:


> That’s why the offer *price *matters, to me at least. I am not interested in buying a small parcel based on a high listing price, for what might not be much of a short-term gain.
> 
> There are so many more of you who have the knowledge, so if this is complete BS and wrong, let me know please.




Not only is this statement wrong, it contradicts your earlier statement that small parcel / high listing price presents better value. Or does better long term value means poorer short term gain?


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## surfziggy (11 September 2009)

When you lot finish f@nnying around arguing with each other, you can find the place to pre-register here:

https://www.mypieceofmyer.com.au/Registration/Home.aspx

You have to become a myer one member first:

http://www.myerone.com.au

But that's easy enough. Anyway thought I might ruin this thread by providing some useful information. ;-)


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## cancan (11 September 2009)

thanks for the link to pre-register. very useful


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## SilverRanger (11 September 2009)

The link is probably the most useful thing in this post 

stocksontheblock: you seem to have misunderstand the word dilution here, it is not the $ amount of the SP that matters, what matters is how much % you earn the company. 

E.g. In a company worth 10k, owning 1 share @$1000 and owning 1000 shares @$1 equally means that you own 10% of the company. 

The long term prospect of a company mainly depends on its future earnings, which is compared with its market cap.


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## aussiebbs (12 September 2009)

sorry i am new to IPO, anyone knows how to participate in IPO? what steps get invovled?


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## Whiskers (12 September 2009)

aussiebbs said:


> sorry i am new to IPO, anyone knows how to participate in IPO? what steps get invovled?




To participate in an *I*nital *P*ublic *O*ffering you have to get hold of a prospectus, read the details carefully and fill out the application to apply for shares. 

Geez... being a red blooded Aussie guy, I'm liking the company a bit more with Jen Hawkins on the flagstaff.


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## jet328 (12 September 2009)

There might be a bit of a stag in it, but as an investment?

It just seems like the standard private equity model. Come in, flog off everything ie. the properties that they owned and will now be renting them back, cut costs, stock levels and staff to the bone. 
Makes the short term numbers look great. If the PE owners really thought Myer was a decent investment, why are they so keen to flog it off after just buying it?


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## nunthewiser (12 September 2009)

jet328 said:


> There might be a bit of a stag in it, but as an investment?
> 
> 
> 
> If the PE owners really thought Myer was a decent investment, why are they so keen to flog it off after just buying it?





yep with the lack of decent floats in the last year or so , yes i would be expecting a nice stag opening ..........could be wrong

re why ...... that was my initial thought also ... perhaps they figured that there sales have been  pumped of late with the help of the stimulas packages ? perhaps they have the opinion that perhaps australia hasnt seen the worst of the recession as yet ? perhaps the owners need a slush fund and a payrise ?

personally dont know "why " they would float it but DO think it will provide many a decent trade opportunity until the novelty wears off .....

and yes jennifer hawkins gets my vote also in fact she should be the prime minister


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## jonojpsg (12 September 2009)

IMO the proposed price tag of $2.5b is overvaluing it.  Their after tax profit this year was what $109m, giving them a PE of 24ish.  Yes they have improved their profits significantly over the last two years, but that wouldn't have been difficult given the state Myer was in when they took it over.  IMO they will find it much more difficult to make double digit gains yoy from here on in.

In that case, a PE of 24+ is too high (DJS is 18 and JBH is 21).  Just my  though.

Oh, and if you want to know why they're selling it, to make money!!  Note the IPO price tag includes debt which is how they bought Myer in the first place.  So they've used other peoples money to buy a badly run company, turned it around, and now want to sell it, AND the debt they took on, at a nice FAT profit.  Sounds like a good deal to me


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## ixalus (13 September 2009)

Thinking of selling LYC and RMS at a loss ($1k) to get into this IPO. Milk it to hopefully cover losses and make a decent gain as well, then drop it and move on. Maybe interest bearing deposits or something lol. Any thoughts on how a retail giant will perform? 

It was logical for me to look into DJS and it's performance throughout the decade. Seems to have been floated at approx. $2 back in the day. Considering inflation maybe Myers will float at $3-5? Any thoughts? Am I approaching this correctly?


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## Wysiwyg (13 September 2009)

ixalus said:


> *It was logical for me to look into DJS and it's performance throughout the **decade*. Seems to have been floated at approx. $2 back in the day. Considering inflation maybe Myers will float at $3-5? Any thoughts? Am I approaching this correctly?




I notice the s.p. is near the all time high again (in just a few short months  )..... financial crisis? what financial crisis????. Sorry to all who sold at a loss and missed the re-entry. I mean that in a ...the share market sux way.


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## Rainmaker2000 (13 September 2009)

I'm bit surprised people can be swept up to IPO so easily.........

There's about 100 shares that are a better buy than Myer or CarSales..........

It's not like your getting in on the ground floor........it's an established business which got some good management for a change......not exactly a growth company, not exactly an asset play

I wonder how long the good staff will stick around once they cash in their options

As for it mattering what price the shares are at????????  Gees, how quickly we come from the bottom of a 'bear market'.............it was only 6 months ago, and people have already lost their bearing again!!!


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## el_caro (14 September 2009)

I have just pre registered for the Myer IPO but doubt if I will apply.  The consortium paid $1.2Bn for the assets in 2006 and now want an estimated $2.6bn in the IPO. I suspect the earnings figures may be a bit rubbery to achieve a higher P/E Ratio to justify a higher IPO share price.
My feeling at the moment is that it will be possible next year to purchase the shares below the IPO price.  There may be a Stag profit in the first couple of days but this is early days in the so called recovery phase and I think the big winner out of this is the investment consortium who pocket over $1bn for holding the assets for 3 years.


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## el_caro (14 September 2009)

> As for it mattering what price the shares are at???????? Gees, how quickly we come from the bottom of a 'bear market'.............it was only 6 months ago, and people have already lost their bearing again!!!




Spot on Rainmaker.  But this highlights a reason why there may be a quid in this IPO for short term players. There is an enormous amount of cash sitting around waiting to enter the sharemarket. Investors have to put it somewhere and cash is never a long term option for serious investors.  The positive spin doctors are rampant world wide and everyone is being led to believe that the markets will soon be back at 2007 levels. Everyone is going to rush back into the market in the next 3 months and that will push the indexes north at a faster pace. This is perfect timing for the IPO.  Just do not hang on to them too long.


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## stocksontheblock (14 September 2009)

Well I just lost all faith in the IPO 

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,26069451-15306,00.html


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## Rainmaker2000 (14 September 2009)

Agree, there might be a short term $ in it........but if short term trading $ is what people want, there are plenty of better of ways to do that too

Anyway, who am I too question the market and people's optimism........I may be a buyer of this business at some point at some low price...........the fleecing of the punters is an important part of the stock market process........it's only after people are completely burnt that they say, "I'm getting out of stocks" only to reappear at the top of the next boom


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## rol (15 September 2009)

Hmm, I just partially went thru the pre-registration process.  According to the FAQ, pre-registration doesn't give any share allocation preference over non-pre-registrants.

So what's the point in pre-registering apart from a personalised share application form??  pffft...


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## zumz (28 September 2009)

Looks like a Stag trade to me.


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## bylife (28 September 2009)

Just Myer prospectures shows some details:

Indicative Price Range:  $3.90 – $4.90
Total number of Shares available under the Offer: 479.3 million – 499.5 million
Total number of Shares on issue on completion of the Offer: 564.8 million – 585.0 million



Wow, above $3.90 per share, the CEO is really confident about MYER shares.


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## Julia (28 September 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> I guess to make the purchase worthwhile – number of shares; at $5 I won’t be able to get as many as if, for example it was $2.
> 
> Maybe as you suggest – look at market cap, I might be looking at this the wrong way.
> 
> Just to add – I see the prospectus is due out on the 28th September. So maybe I will have my answer sooner rather than later.






SilverRanger said:


> T
> 
> stocksontheblock: you seem to have misunderstand the word dilution here, it is not the $ amount of the SP that matters, what matters is how much % you earn the company.
> 
> ...




Stocks, SilverRanger has explained it simply.  Is it clear now?  All you are concerned about is the percentage return on your investment.  The number of shares is completely irrelevant.


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## Dark1975 (28 September 2009)

So the 4 large investment bodies sellout there investment only to maybe keep 13.5%,And with a possible p/e of 15.6,Sorry hmmm aint no apple for me!


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## $undancekid (29 September 2009)

Just a warning to those seeing this as a stag, as i myself considered, I found the following info:

_TPG has previously floated two department stores, Debenhams, in the UK, and Neiman Marcus, in the US, and both were disasters when they hit the market, with Neiman Marcus losing almost 70% of its value. The stories are eerily similar: chronically underperforming department stores that were massaged to deliver huge profits on limited or negative sales growth, and then floated with much fanfare._

I still think there would be money to be made from mums and dads and the "telstra crew" in a couple of days trade but there are better options around.


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## ROE (29 September 2009)

I wouldnt sell Myers shares to my grand mother 
Look past the windows dressing, and you can see many flaws
buyer beware..

make sure you dig deep before you place some of your capital at risk 

Right now Myers is on the voting machine 
the more people vote and the higher the profile of the voters like our Jen the higher the price

Long term when the voter left the scene, the weighting machine may come into play


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## skyQuake (29 September 2009)

$undancekid said:


> Just a warning to those seeing this as a stag, as i myself considered, I found the following info:
> 
> _TPG has previously floated two department stores, Debenhams, in the UK, and Neiman Marcus, in the US, and both were disasters when they hit the market, with Neiman Marcus losing almost 70% of its value. The stories are eerily similar: chronically underperforming department stores that were massaged to deliver huge profits on limited or negative sales growth, and then floated with much fanfare._
> 
> I still think there would be money to be made from mums and dads and the "telstra crew" in a couple of days trade but there are better options around.





Get your facts right.

Debenhams ran up 5% or so, then ended their first day's trading up 2.5%.

TPG still own Neiman Marcus. It was never floated.

Index funds will rotate some money from DJS into MYF as it lists, plus the fact this IPO focuses more on retail than insto (myer one card lol); so I'm fairly confident there will be a bit of stag to be made.


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## bugmenot (29 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Get your facts right.
> 
> Debenhams ran up 5% or so, then ended their first day's trading up 2.5%.
> 
> ...




Debenhams chart here:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:DEB

If I'm reading that chart correctly, peak to trough looks like around a 90% drop within 24 months of float....


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## skyQuake (29 September 2009)

bugmenot said:


> Debenhams chart here:
> http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:DEB
> 
> If I'm reading that chart correctly, peak to trough looks like around a 90% drop within 24 months of float....




Yeah like most shares tied to the strength of the economy during the dip. There was plenty of time to get out once you realized it was going nowhere.


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## outback (29 September 2009)

ROE said:


> I wouldnt sell Myers shares to my grand mother
> Look past the windows dressing, and you can see many flaws
> buyer beware..
> 
> ...




What's ya grannies name? I'll sell her some. And a bridge, and a funny looking opera house. :


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## $undancekid (1 October 2009)

Whoa. Talk about being put in your place. My source was obviously rubbish.


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## skyQuake (1 October 2009)

lol, just check your sources carefully. I for one, have been burnt by crikey too many times!


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## b.j. (8 October 2009)

"Myer Group today said it plans to raise up to $2.34 billion through an initial public offering as it looks to *re-list* on the Australian Stock Exchange."

i read the above in The Australian and am just wondering what do they mean re-list??? if it's an IPO, wouldn't that be list rather than re-list? or has Myer been listed on ASX before?

i apologise in advance for my ignorance.


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## Gillie (8 October 2009)

b.j. said:


> "Myer Group today said it plans to raise up to $2.34 billion through an initial public offering as it looks to *re-list* on the Australian Stock Exchange."
> 
> i read the above in The Australian and am just wondering what do they mean re-list??? if it's an IPO, wouldn't that be list rather than re-list? or has Myer been listed on ASX before?
> 
> i apologise in advance for my ignorance.




Myer has previously been listed under Coles-Myer Ltd until Myer was sold off.

Coles used to be CML and is now CGJ


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## b.j. (8 October 2009)

Gillie said:


> is now CGJ



thanks Gillie for the reply
however there was no CGJ when i was searching it on asx and comsec?


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## swm79 (8 October 2009)

did anyone actually take up this offer?

i'd be interested to know your reasoning why?


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## Calliope (8 October 2009)

There is not much in it for stags. It's overpriced. It may go up a little on opening but my guess is it will finish down on the first day.


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## ChilliBlue (8 October 2009)

b.j. said:


> thanks Gillie for the reply
> however there was no CGJ when i was searching it on asx and comsec?




Coles was part of Coles Myer purchased by Wesfarmers code WES


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## Ablett (8 October 2009)

This is the most over priced IPO in history, and is a disgrace that the banks, vendors, board and management involved.

Consider this;

 - The IPO price implies an EBIT multiple of 14-16x EBIT (why not by a true high growth retailler such as TRS, JBH, PMV, or Super Cheap for a similar price? - of buy SFH for a genuine value buy)
 - It has no "real" sales growth, and has no track record of successful store roll out
 - it is a capital intensive, and has a major store upgrade program needed, and a need to upgrade its point of sale system in 2011 at a cost of ~$100m
 - it does not own its its 2 key stores, unlike DJ's.... because myer sold their melbourne stoire for $600m++.... and therefore should not be compared to DJS in PE, margins, or risk.... it is materially inferior.
 - Myer is losing market share to discount department stores such as Target and Big W
 - Its cost upside has been stripped....

Then overlay that TPG (the vendors) have a shocking track record of IPOing businesses at overpriced levels (see Debenhams in the UK.... another department store chain).... and will likely sell 100% of their stock, so couldnt care less when it trades down post IPO....

People who buy stock in this IPO are suckers for a pretty girl on the cover of a prospectus, or are satisfied with a 10% upside and 30% down side trade off (i.e. idiots).

Good luck to Myer management when all their customers are pissed at them for convincing them to buy Myer stock, and when the stock is underwater, they vent their anger by shopping at DJ's instead....


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## Ablett (8 October 2009)

zumz said:


> Looks like a Stag trade to me.




I cannot beleive the stupidity of some people.... ..... if you think the vendors will sell this at a price that facilitates a stag, you are on crack.

This stock will be down a minimum of 15% by 30 June 2010.


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## skc (8 October 2009)

I seriously doubt this is a stag... I have no idea where the term comes from but stag gives me the impression of a horse, jumping. I see this may be as a frog - jumps up in order to dive into the water.

How much do the index funds have to buy? Do they have to buy straight away or they re balance at month end? Can't wait to run a long DJS / short Myer pair when they are done.

May be they should create a short sell facility, like an anti-IPO or IPS (initial public shorting)? That way more fans of Hawko can actually get on the IPO.


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## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

Ablett said:


> I cannot beleive the stupidity of some people.... ..... if you think the vendors will sell this at a price that facilitates a stag, you are on crack.
> 
> This stock will be down a minimum of 15% by 30 June 2010.




Thus, stag! Everyone knows its overprices but insto underallocation ensures that there will be some buying support - at least initially. Funds are already rotating out of DJS to MYF when it gets put into the index.


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## Ablett (8 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Thus, stag! Everyone knows its overprices but insto underallocation ensures that there will be some buying support - at least initially. Funds are already rotating out of DJS to MYF when it gets put into the index.




The big 5 insto's arent idiots mate. The IPO managers are trying to use retail demand to squeeze insto's into a smaller book. I hope they find that offshore instos tell them to jump (as they should following Debenhams) and the local boys realise they have the whip hand and go on a buying strike.... this will leave a very thinly covered book.... which will hopefully force a reprice downward.... unfortunately if it doesnt, the instos who play will end up with more stock than they want, and they stock will tank for a few months post IPO before stabalisation as retail investors and over weight instos sort their **** out....  

It will be an awesome deal for TPG, but I hope the instos force a repricing back to ~8-9x EBIT valuation (about $1.8-2.0bn).... where a low growth but sold retailler belongs.... TPG will still make a packet, but atleast not screw honest investors ...

A stag is a 50/50 bet here.... and if you get it wrong, you will likely torch more than the 5% upside.


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## ROE (8 October 2009)

swm79 said:


> did anyone actually take up this offer?
> 
> i'd be interested to know your reasoning why?




No it didn't past my first rule and a very important one 

Myers 160M Net Profit
Want to rise 2.3B for the float
so shareholder equity is 2.3B

160/2300 = 6.8% Return on Equity

Way too low, way below average, way not enough to compensate risk for
holding stock, way over price

Quick, easy calculation anyone can use don't need some analyst to tell you


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## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

Ablett said:


> The big 5 insto's arent idiots mate. The IPO managers are trying to use retail demand to squeeze insto's into a smaller book. I hope they find that offshore instos tell them to jump (as they should following Debenhams) and the local boys realise they have the whip hand and go on a buying strike.... this will leave a very thinly covered book.... which will hopefully force a reprice downward.... unfortunately if it doesnt, the instos who play will end up with more stock than they want, and they stock will tank for a few months post IPO before stabalisation as retail investors and over weight instos sort their **** out....
> 
> It will be an awesome deal for TPG, but I hope the instos force a repricing back to ~8-9x EBIT valuation (about $1.8-2.0bn).... where a low growth but sold retailler belongs.... TPG will still make a packet, but atleast not screw honest investors ...
> 
> A stag is a 50/50 bet here.... and if you get it wrong, you will likely torch more than the 5% upside.




Agree with most of that, however as you said, instos arent stupid. They could jump into the bookbuild and force the price towards the top of the range, then face the risk of having it gap down when it reopens. OR they could sit out the insto offer, and buy on open; Significantly limiting their risk (though also foregoing some potential stag). If lots of instos cancel or scale back in the bookbuild process, they'll keep prices at the bottom of the range.
Hopefully they've learnt their lesson from Graincorp's bookbuild...

Having said that, I would love to short it post IPO though.


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## jama_kj (15 October 2009)

Hey ppl, quick question regarding the IPO.

Where will the shares turn up, in terms of my trading account? No where does it ask for my SRN or anything so how will they be able to assign it to a particular account of mine...I want to have the option to sell it on the first day available to me.

Thanks


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## limmiboi (15 October 2009)

Ablett said:


> (why not by a true high growth retailler such as TRS, JBH, PMV, or Super Cheap for a similar price? - of buy SFH for a genuine value buy)




Anyone with any views/info on SFH?
Seems like a good buy...P/E Ratio ~9.6, retail sector going strong...


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## rustyheela (15 October 2009)

*myer ipo & comsec firm broker allocation*

anyone going to take up this offer?, also would you be able to apply through both broker & being a myer 1 member? assuming it will be wildly oversubscribed from people looking for a stag profit, i see this as a hedging bet. any thoughts? pros / cons


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## el_caro (18 October 2009)

After due consideration I have decided to avoid this one.

Some of the commentary that helped me decide:

 Marketing academic Dr Joy Evans: "If I wasn't worried about a short term return then I still think they're a good long term bet. I won't be buying"

Banking and finance academic Peter Swan: "I wouldn't put my fortune if I had a fortune into it but my wife is insisting I buy it. She likes the way the stores are now and says they've improved a lot."

Investors Mutual investors director Anton Tagliaferro called the float "mutton dressed up as lamb".
"I recommend retail investors wait a year or two before looking at buying into Myer shares as there is a danger it has been dressed up for the float."

Dalton Nicol Reid chief investment officer Jamie Nicol said he liked David Jones more than Myer for a retail stock.
"They (Myer) have cut costs and done some sensible things to improve the supply chain, but even though it is priced like DJs, which has a well-established niche, Myer is more a mass market department store which competes with category killers like Harvey Norman ... As a result, we prefer DJs and now, with a rate rise, it's going to get harder for retail."

Kieran Kelly of boutique firm Sirius: "Our clients avoided the disastrous string of IPOs coming out of the venture capital market in recent years Pacific Brands, Repco, Emeco and Boart Longyear to name a few - this looks like another one."

IG Markets research analyst Ben Potter: "(You've got Myer) trying to flog an expensive product to ill-informed retail investors that get taken away by the marketing hype."

Fund manager Marcus Burns said the Myer float was "grossly overpriced and opportunistic".
"It is galling that, time and time again, venture capitalists and private equity firms rip the bones out of an asset and then flog it to the public in an IPO which will only make them rich -- not the new shareholders who buy into the float. The growth story of Myer is unlikely to materialise."

An analyst at stockbroker Joseph Palmer & Sons wrote in a note to clients: "I would argue that the low-hanging fruit has already been plucked from the Myer tree and the big winners here are likely to be the private equity sellers."

Share analyst Roger Montgomery: "Myer is overvalued, even at the low end of the pricing range"

The Australian Criterion columnist Tim Boreham: "Investors shouldn't clamour for a slice of Myer simply on the Edmund Hillary 'because it's there' motive. Other retail listings, notably Rebel Sport and Kathmandu, are in the offing so they'll have a smorgasbord to choose from.

"Just as Boxing Day bargain hunters expect cut-price merchandise, investors should expect the offer price to reflect the uncertainties inherent in the Myer turnaround story."

Australian Financial Review reporter Sue Mitchell: "The prices sought by Myer's private equity owners will leave little room for error in the event of deteriorating economic or retail conditions, cost overruns, problems implementing new IT systems or new stores falling short of objectives. It's a long list. "

Sydney Morning Herald commentator Malcolm Maiden: "At $4.90 a share, Myer is fully priced for a journey it has not yet taken: the turbo-charging of the lower-cost, higher-return operating base that its chief executive, Bernie Brookes, has engineered through the delivery of revenue growth,"

I think I will avoid the risk for the likelihood of a 2-5% first day stag and wait for the price to drop about 15 - 20% before I buy in.


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## Rainmaker2000 (18 October 2009)

Seriously people, for all the newbies who have been swept up by the Myer, Jennifer Hawkins fashion catalogue accidently named a prospectus.........

Your enthusiasm for stock investing is wonderful........it's reassuring that stocks will always have a romance, at least before you buy your first dog of a stock....

Seriously guys, have a look around and do your research......I'm sick of seeing the punters mercilessly fleeced by the Macquaire banks and private equity firms........

Even if Myer was sold off at half its listed price, it would not be a standout buy.........all the other analysis is just noise

If you actually want to make money, have a look at some of the other wonderful retailers trading on the stock market.......you can buy the cream on a similar valuation to Myer.........and you can buy better businesses than Myer for half the valuation

And so what if it goes up on first day.........as an ignorant newbie.......I remember I made $1000 on the Virgin Blue float........now I cringe at my ignorance......knowing the risk of holding an airline stock, if only for a few days........if you like these odds, try blackjack itstead.......at least its completely tax deductible!!!


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## MilanB (18 October 2009)

skc said:


> Yes this is complete bs and wrong.
> 
> Based on your logic, you should go buy the lowest $ value share on the ASX as they offer more up side. You should also short sell something like Berkshire Hathaway as their share is way over valued at US$100,000.
> 
> Actually... re-reading your post you had no logic at all. Please change your signature line as it is clear that going to university has not helped you in pretending to be smart.




I am new to this Forum and would like to understand whether being rude in one's reply is so necessary or is it just a sign of arrogance?  I too am a newbie in this field and asking help from more knowledgeable individuals should not be be a crime.


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## Agentm (18 October 2009)

myer ipo??


one word only

*AVIOD*


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## skc (18 October 2009)

stocksontheblock said:


> There are so many more of you who have the knowledge, so if this is complete BS and wrong, let me know please.






skc said:


> Yes this is complete bs and wrong.






MilanB said:


> I am new to this Forum and would like to understand whether being rude in one's reply is so necessary or is it just a sign of arrogance?  I too am a newbie in this field and asking help from more knowledgeable individuals should not be be a crime.




Please read the thread in full before accusing people of being arrogant.
As you can see I was only using his own wording in my reply.


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## greggles (11 April 2018)

Agentm said:


> myer ipo??
> 
> 
> one word only
> ...



Words of wisdom.


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