# My Worst Pick Ever



## burglar (30 November 2010)

We've all had one.

Great writeups in great Magazines.
Share price in a strong upward trend.
Shareholder Purchase Plans with attractive premiums.
Great Plans for the future.

Then comes a long slow downtrend.
The entity fails to show real progress.
Shareholders lose faith and bail.

Then one day, the kiss-of-death, ...
Consolidation 1 for every 20 held


----------



## Agentm (30 November 2010)

my view is simple

they have your capital, its your investment in them

the management is responsible to report to you, if a company fails to achieve its goals, then remove your capital.

whom the management is, and what their reputation is, means a lot for my investing, and it equates to how much capital i would be prepared to place into their organisation.. the business model needs to be sound.  and thats where you, as an investor, or via a broker, you need to be vigilant

if it goes 1 for 20 before you can act, then thats a pity, but imho you must have had more than just the writing on the wall, sounds like it was a message as large as a skywriter could achieve.. fail fail fail

if you hold it in the bottom draw, leave it for a decade, who knows, it may become more valuable..

learn and try not to repeat i guess..


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (30 November 2010)

Valad Property group? LOLOL Nah but seriously at least name what company it is, thought I was going to find out that much at least .


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

burglar said:


> "My Worst Pick Ever"
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21130
> 
> Want to share your worst nightmare?






burglar said:


> Julia,
> 
> Thankyou for your response.
> 
> ...




One of my worst and earliest picks was MGK and I've started my first thread !


----------



## tech/a (30 November 2010)

Not all of us!

Had strings of smaller losses.
Find that preferable to big hits.
You tend to live to fight another day.


----------



## pixel (30 November 2010)

burglar said:


> We've all had one.
> 
> Great writeups in great Magazines.
> Share price in a strong upward trend.
> ...




I reckon CVI fits all of the above.
Although I'm "only" $3K out of pocket, I'd rather not say what I'd like to do to Mr Smythe and even more so to the persuasive eggspurt that talked me into it.

Yes, I know - it's my own fault and responsibility and I've been kicking myself more than anybody else


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

Thanks pixel

Now, I have a dilemma. Do I look up CVI or continue my tale?

Ooh no. It's two hours since the open and I haven't checked my Portfolio yet.

I'll be back!


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

The beginning of the suck in ... the so called Fixed Price Contract

The pea goes under this shell, watch the shell, watch the shell!

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...play=text&issuerId=4952&announcementId=533878

Document date:  Thu 05 Dec 2002 
*MIL & Theiss to build Magnesium Smelter for $751.5million *
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
ENGINEERING PROCUREMENT AND CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT FINALISED

Magnesium International Limited (MIL) and Thiess Ltd (Thiess) are
pleased to announce that they have agreed on a final price for the
Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) of the SAMAG
magnesium smelter to be built at Pt Pirie in South Australia. The
price agreed is $751.5 million using a 30 June 2002 cost base."


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

I found no ASF thread for PAL_Pima, the original listed entity

ASF threads for MIL_Magnesium International & MGK_Magnesium International respectively below:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=929&highlight=mil

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/search.php?searchid=2896713

And yes, Agentm, I take your point. The name changes alone are skywriting
"Fail, fail, fail !"


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

tech/a said:


> Not all of us!
> 
> Had strings of smaller losses.
> Find that preferable to big hits.
> You tend to live to fight another day.




Lucky duck!


----------



## tech/a (30 November 2010)

burglar said:


> Lucky duck!




No luck involved.

Thats what Stop losses are for.
But you Fundies dont use stop losses.
Well Ive not met one who knows how to place one and why
he'd actually place one on a stock he sees as Undervalued and
even better the more it drops.


----------



## awg (30 November 2010)

Its pretty frustrating to hold a speccie/value stock with great prospects for a while, 

it drifts lower, you lose patience, sell, and shift capital elswhere

It ascent starts very soon after, and the stock doubles in less than a year

That has happened to me a few times

It hurts even more when the the upsurge is from a big announcement just after you sold.

MSB, LNG, FMG, BEPPA


----------



## skyQuake (30 November 2010)

tech/a said:


> No luck involved.
> 
> Thats what Stop losses are for.
> But you Fundies dont use stop losses.
> ...




Liquidity issue too, you cant place a stop thats triggers a sell for 10% of the market cap


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

AWG, thank you and all others, for your contributions

AWG, as you point out, "the ascent starts very soon after"!

So what kept me interested in these losers?!
Little gems like this!


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...play=text&issuerId=4952&announcementId=562436

"Negotiates Magnesium Venture with CSIRO

Document date:  Tue 22 Apr 2003

MAGNESIUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED               2003-04-22  ASX-SIGNAL-G

+++++++++++++++++++++++++
MAGNESIUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED NEGOTIATES MAGNESIUM VENTURE WITH
CSIRO

CSIRO and Magnesium International Limited ("MIL") announced today
that they have signed a conditional Term Sheet to enter into a
venture to manufacture magnesium sheet metal using CSIRO Twin Roll
Casting Technology."

Ooh, and don't forget the occasional speeding ticket!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (30 November 2010)

awg said:


> It hurts even more when the the upsurge is from a big announcement just after you sold.
> 
> MSB, LNG, FMG, BEPPA




Beppa was actually one of my big wins out of the GFC. I think I had bought in at an average of around 7c and sold at 39c. I had a real decent % of my portfolio in them as well.

However my biggest loss ever was agri energy. I shake my head in disbelief at my stupidity with this one. I lost $10,000 which over all is peanuts but I learned some valuable lessons.


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

tech/a said:


> No luck involved.
> 
> Thats what Stop losses are for.
> But you Fundies dont use stop losses.
> ...




I learnt my lesson good!  
I can take a tenth of a cent, if there's a profit in it.
Sometimes I can trade intraday (as a wise person here once said, the moment you buy them they're yours to hold or sell)
I can even stop loss, but do it manually!

Cheers


----------



## awg (30 November 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Beppa was actually one of my big wins out of the GFC. I think I had bought in at an average of around 7c and sold at 39c. I had a real decent % of my portfolio in them as well.




I actually took a falling sell to lock in profit on BEPPA

Only thing is, I left several years wages on the table when they got bought out.

(Management made a hash of disclosure imo)

In terms of "lost opportunity cost" this was by far my "worst" decision


Also bought stocks at absolute highs plenty of times, 
things can go pear shaped with this method.

The art of the best exit seems to elude me the most though


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Beppa was actually one of my big wins out of the GFC. I think I had bought in at an average of around 7c and sold at 39c. I had a real decent % of my portfolio in them as well.
> 
> However my biggest loss ever was agri energy. I shake my head in disbelief at my stupidity with this one. I lost $10,000 which over all is peanuts but I learned some valuable lessons.





A pessimist would say I lost $8.2k
An optimist would say I retained $862
I played that money hard and fast. 
No stops, no losses. Reckless! 
Pity I didn't monitor how much I multiplied it. 
With compounding, maybe 6 fold. 

BEPPA Sorry - no matches. Please try some different terms. 
might try ASX


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 November 2010)

Too embarrassed to say my biggest loss.  Was an absolute whopper.

On a related note - lol - a quite reliable contrarian sentiment indicator is Hotcopper.  Some examples are:
1.  when posters start threads such as "predict today's closing price" "what will it open at tomorrow?"
2.  share price stalls and posters start rationalising by repeating how good the fundamentals are.  "10 reasons why I am holding" - type of post.  The words are positive, the sentiment is desperate.  
3.  Someone posts a negative comment and gets hammered by the others and moderated for down-ramping by a moderator who holds the same stock.


----------



## Logique (30 November 2010)

Worst pick ever? More than I care to remember. 

Ventracor VCR, ION ION (remember that), Babcock and Brown BNB, ABC Learning ABC. 

Erongo Energy ERN (Uranium. Athough this has picked up in the last few months, along with PDN).

Oh the pain..the pain, as Dr Zacchary might say. Hard knocks along the way to trading mediocrity.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 November 2010)

QTM

MANY years ago

bought the wrong end of a team inspired sting due to pure greed.

caught with pants down and cost me 46%

i still have the tshirt

Taught me a valuable lesson though.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 November 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> QTM
> 
> MANY years ago
> 
> ...




At $30.00 for the shirt plus freight $5.00, you owe me $35.00 plus interest at 8% compounding......  QTM was also my worst but taught me to have a very healthy wariness of rampers and ramped stocks.


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Too embarrassed to say my biggest loss.  Was an absolute whopper.
> 
> On a related note - lol - a quite reliable contrarian sentiment indicator is Hotcopper.  Some examples are:
> 1.  when posters start threads such as "predict today's closing price" "what will it open at tomorrow?"
> ...



Thank you for the insight, Gringotts Bank

The MGK saga continues:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031212/pdf/3k31xh1s1tddy.pdf

An offtake agreement ?
"ThyssenKrupp Offtake Agreement Extended "
91,000 Tonnes per annum of non existant Magnesium

Ok! Obviously the big name and the big numbers ramp up the Share Price.
Now along comes the Share Purchase Plan (these guys are good!) 

"Completion of Shareholder Share Purchase Scheme "

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031222/pdf/3k67f21xp0133.pdf

Sorry, I can't cut and paste from .pdf 
In my opinion, a little peek is instructive. 

What dumb things have I done since buying them in Oct 2000?

I'd been making profits on TIR_Titan Resources! 
Ploughed them into PAL then MIL now MGK at 22 Dec 2003
Remember, the same company but with name changed. 
In my plan, I was accumulating upto a $4,000 position and holding for the Long Term.
I broke from my plan, the SPP at a premium, looked so attractive. 
I took the maximum - $5,000 

I'll leave it here for now!
Thanks for sharing!  
burglar
I'm not embarrassed 'cos I'm hiding behind an avatar.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 November 2010)

My missus bagged me for losing out on qtm but then she bought Zinifex.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 November 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> At $30.00 for the shirt plus freight $5.00, you owe me $35.00 plus interest at 8% compounding........ .




Im on a mission from God.

I think at least a tshirt donation is appropriate 



> My missus bagged me for losing out on qtm




I sold mine to pay for it


----------



## nulla nulla (30 November 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Im on a mission from God.
> 
> I think at least a tshirt donation is appropriate




Allright, just send me a receipt so I can claim the donation as a tax write off.


----------



## lianeisme (30 November 2010)

OOOOOH it's so hard
I have had so many but my major 
would be CTO
followed BY ELD
Close third BSL
and lucky last QBE
I'm sure 3 out of 4 will come back but when???????????


----------



## burglar (30 November 2010)

I wanna tshirt that says 

*"I survived the GFC"*


----------



## So_Cynical (30 November 2010)

My worst pick and biggest loser in dollar terms was/is CTO got serious in April this year and turned the paper loss into a proper loss 66.9%  my biggest percentage loser was ARJ - Ark fund, a agricultural real estate trust with only one customer (MIS operator) and a truck load of debt....100% loss.

I would like to think ive learnt enough to not make mistakes like that again.
~


----------



## McCoy Pauley (30 November 2010)

My worst pick ever?

Telstra.

Bloody dog of a stock. 

Mind you, I only bought stock in the T1 float, so I'm not as badly off as some.


----------



## DB008 (1 December 2010)

ROG - Still holding. Down about 45% at the moment on this bad boy.


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

pixel said:


> I reckon CVI fits all of the above.
> Although I'm "only" $3K out of pocket, I'd rather not say what I'd like to do to Mr Smythe and even more so to the persuasive eggspurt that talked me into it.
> 
> Yes, I know - it's my own fault and responsibility and I've been kicking myself more than anybody else




*"only" $3K *is more like $12k in future money. You are right to be angry. 

I had a peak at CVI, a text book "falling knife". 

persuasive eggspurt! lol I so love internet trading, I make my own mistakes.


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> QTM
> 
> MANY years ago
> 
> ...




lol a nun with pants down ... that's priceless!
"Bless me father ... "


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

skyQuake said:


> Liquidity issue too, you cant place a stop thats triggers a sell for 10% of the market cap




SQ, Pls elaborate, preferably in monosyllables and without excess jargon. 
Afterall, I'm only a humble burglar and newbie !


----------



## awg (1 December 2010)

burglar said:


> SQ, Pls elaborate, preferably in monosyllables and without excess jargon.
> Afterall, I'm only a humble burglar and newbie !




SQ might perhaps be refering to the fact that stop losses cannot always be placed to protect oneself, especially with low liquidity stocks. 

Same if they gap thru your stop, normally as a result of a Trading Halt.

With repect to earlier ref to BEPPA was an ASX code, not anymore


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

awg said:


> SQ might perhaps be refering to the fact that stop losses cannot always be placed to protect oneself, especially with low liquidity stocks.
> 
> Same if they gap thru your stop, normally as a result of a Trading Halt.
> 
> With repect to earlier ref to BEPPA was an ASX code, not anymore




Thanks AWG,

Was it Babcock and Brown Infrastructure or some such thing? I'm not so much interested in making a list of companies. But there would be a lesson here if BEPPA was associated with a high debt company in face of a heavy downturn like B&B (or Centro or ABC learning) I am making sense?


----------



## awg (1 December 2010)

burglar said:


> Thanks AWG,
> 
> Was it Babcock and Brown Infrastructure or some such thing? I'm not so much interested in making a list of companies. But there would be a lesson here if BEPPA was associated with a high debt company in face of a heavy downturn like B&B (or Centro or ABC learning) I am making sense?




To grossly oversimplify the story, BEPPA was more secured BBI corporate debt/bondholders, hammered down to a few cents in the dollar, possibly determing the future ownership of a very valuable coal export terminal, very high chance of going belly-up, and they get nothing, but got bought out for about 40c/$.


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

AWG, 

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the *trade* winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.” Mark Twain

I've not seen the cut of your Jib. 
But, by Jiminy, you got a nice set of wheels! 

Cheers Matey,
burglar


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Not all of us!
> 
> Had strings of smaller losses.
> Find that preferable to big hits.
> You tend to live to fight another day.




Maybe you're Worst Pick Ever was a sold too early story, you know, the Motza that got away.
Go on. Dont be shy! 



When a duck talks, I listen!


----------



## luke256 (1 December 2010)

This post is hilarious. I had a look at the charts that people lost big money on and they were all trending downwards on the monthly high/low charts.

Possibly if you are in that boat (50% plus losses on one stock) you should print out monthly charts before buying. Take it to a 5 year old and ask them which way the lines are going. If they say down DON'T BUY IT!


----------



## tech/a (1 December 2010)

Maybe you're Worst Pick Ever was a sold too early story, you know, the Motza that got away.

Im sure there are 
But For what its worth this is my Resources portfolio.
Maybe you'll notice something of interest


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> This post is hilarious. I had a look at the charts that people lost big money on and they were all trending downwards on the monthly high/low charts.
> 
> Possibly if you are in that boat (50% plus losses on one stock) you should print out monthly charts before buying. Take it to a 5 year old and ask them which way the lines are going. If they say down DON'T BUY IT!




I've always wanted Tomorrow's Newspaper today, but Rupert Murdoch does not wish co-operate. 
Now I take monthly charts to a 5 year old and ask them which way the lines are going. 
If they say down I DON'T BUY IT! 
But I only do this since my worst pick, because I have made mistakes and tried really hard to learn from them. 


That's why this post is serious!!


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Maybe you're Worst Pick Ever was a sold too early story, you know, the Motza that got away.
> 
> Im sure there are
> But For what its worth this is my Resources portfolio.
> Maybe you'll notice something of interest




I see lots of white numbers on blue background. I am sure the colours are significant.


----------



## luke256 (1 December 2010)

It's fine to have small losses but 50 - 100% of your investment is too big a loss. You can't make much on the next big run up if you have little or no money left to continue trading with.

Dont be the person who gives large donations to the market. Use a stop loss order to minimise risk.


----------



## Boggo (1 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> It's fine to have small losses but 50 - 100% of your investment is too big a loss. You can't make much on the next big run up if you have little or no money left to continue trading with.




exactly, and a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to where you were.


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> It's fine to have small losses but 50 - 100% of your investment is too big a loss. You can't make much on the next big run up if you have little or no money left to continue trading with.
> 
> Dont be the person who gives large donations to the market. Use a stop loss order to minimise risk.




Part of me agrees with you.
Let me explain this way.
If I take a lifetime to make a fortune, I will be 125 years old.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> This post is hilarious. I had a look at the charts that people lost big money on and they were all trending downwards on the monthly high/low charts.
> 
> !




Not mine Buddy

QTM was a flatline with a rumour/team/inside story  and caused a 1 day multi bagger spike....was a proffesional con job and stung a few of us greedy folk...( even made the papers...("wizards of bourse") )

early 2000 area( maybe late 90,s) buggared if i can remmember now

was a good learning experience tho

but hey some of us aint as perfect as others make themselves out to be in here 

or they could be full of ..........


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

But hey did i tell ya about my 2000% win on MGXO or my 1400% win on MGX .

Nah .......

But hey you guys that been perfect from day one .....you rock


----------



## tech/a (1 December 2010)

burglar said:


> I see lots of white numbers on blue background. I am sure the colours are significant.






> But For what its worth this is my Resources portfolio.
> Maybe you'll notice something of interest




Then again maybe not.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

Oh also..

Glad to see that al these "traders " that only ever take small losses and follow there "trade plan " that dont let them take any larger losses EVER.......obviously there "trading plans" dont allow stocks they hold to go into Halts and gap through there stoploss points according to that plan...

No offense intended but after reading SOME of the patronising and BOOK inspired comments here ..it has confirmed my belief that there are some here that know squat about trading but know how to type well in forums......leading to my previous observation that maybe they just fulla ......

like i said no offense intended just bored with hearing how great  your notes say you are....


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

observations over

as you were

avaniceday


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Then again maybe not.




You sold the lot? What !!


----------



## tech/a (1 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Oh also..
> 
> Glad to see that al these "traders " that only ever take small losses and follow there "trade plan " that dont let them take any larger losses EVER.......obviously there "trading plans" dont allow stocks they hold to go into Halts and gap through there stoploss points according to that plan...
> 
> ...




Its also pretty boring seeing comments from posters who have no idea of portfolio management let alone trade management.
If they DID they would know that their trading plans would not be hurt by the odd stock being delisted let alone gap down or halted.

No offence of course.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Its also pretty boring seeing comments from posters who have no idea of portfolio management let alone trade management.
> If they DID they would know that their trading plans would not be hurt by the odd stock being delisted let alone gap down or halted.
> 
> No offence of course.




LOL i take it you are implying that i have no idea on portfolio managemment.

hahahahah.

um not once did i mention the size of my position in relation to portfolio size ONLY the loss % on the trade ........ it was a loss and i learnt from it. was not a portfolio destroyer 

lol you crack me up 

great to see your "trading" has not ever  taken a large loss on a single trade tho  as you pointed out earlier... you must be special.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Not all of us!
> 
> Had strings of smaller losses.
> Find that preferable to big hits.
> You tend to live to fight another day.






tech/a said:


> No luck involved.
> 
> Thats what Stop losses are for.
> But you Fundies dont use stop losses.
> ...




Yep . great stuff 

No gap downs, no delistings , no probs bro ...

yep stoplosses obviously work 100% for ya 

i am in awe


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Yep . great stuff
> 
> No gap downs, no delistings ,




Indexes don't get de-listed. Don't gap too nastily either.

Sunshine and lollipops. :arsch: :fan  :70:


----------



## So_Cynical (1 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> It's fine to have small losses but 50 - 100% of your investment is too big a loss. You can't make much on the next big run up if you have little or no money left to continue trading with.
> 
> Dont be the person who gives large donations to the market. Use a stop loss order to minimise risk.




Some people do pretty much the opposite of this ^ and do just fine...having a open ended investment time frame and no leverage means you can give a stock room to move and time to come good....after all someone's gota buy the bottoms, there's people buying and selling at all levels.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 December 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Indexes don't get de-listed. Don't gap too nastily either.
> 
> Sunshine and lollipops. :arsch: :fan  :70:




 yep

and im all for it.

The conversation here was mainly dealing with individual company  trading though

Still a sucker for the ASX as a part of my portfolio overall  .... lol . buggared if i know why tho at times


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (1 December 2010)

Worst investment ever was WFL or Willmott Forests, no idea why I bought into them back then (looking through the old reports, so many red flags were being raised) but I ignored and paid the price. Luckily it was only a smallish amount (3k or so) so it was painful but it wasn't an untimely death of my portfolio. Everyone's got a story of a company they bought in due to a lack of judgment at the time, and if they haven't I wish I was them , hopefully I've learnt my lesson and from now on I'll only be taking smaller losses on shares instead of blowing up money.


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> It's fine to have small losses but 50 - 100% of your investment is too big a loss. You can't make much on the next big run up if you have little or no money left to continue trading with.
> 
> Dont be the person who gives large donations to the market. Use a stop loss order to minimise risk.






Boggo said:


> exactly, and a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to where you were.




I bought EXMOA at $0.002  ... where exactly, should I have put a stop loss order to avoid 50 - 100% loss.


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2010)

I've had a few worst picks that I should have sold.

But NOTHING compared to the worst picks that I should have held.


----------



## tech/a (1 December 2010)

kennas said:


> I've had a few worst picks that I should have sold.
> 
> But NOTHING compared to the worst picks that I should have held.




Why don't you have a re entry stratagy?
If a stock does an about face and blasts off to new heights it will be just as obvious as the first time you bought it.
I've had gaps down and de lists but the portfolio has never suffered more than a 12% drwadown from a delist and 3% from a gap down that drawdown was against OPEN profit so no big deal.


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Why don't you have a re entry stratagy?
> If a stock does an about face and blasts off to new heights it will be just as obvious as the first time you bought it.
> I've had gaps down and de lists but the portfolio has never suffered more than a 12% drwadown from a delist and 3% from a gap down that drawdown was against OPEN profit so no big deal.



Yep, lesson not learnt. I did it OK for a while but emotions got the better of me.


----------



## JimBob (1 December 2010)

I brought FWLO - options in Ferrowest a few years back, i paid up to 50c for them only to see them drop to 40c then 30c.  I remember thinking 'surely they cant drop any further', boy was i wrong.  They ended up at less than 1c before expiring worthless this year.  Had every opportunity to sell them on the way down but they ended up just being a lesson for the future about being more conservative with options.


----------



## burglar (1 December 2010)

JimBob said:


> I brought FWLO - options in Ferrowest a few years back, i paid up to 50c for them only to see them drop to 40c then 30c.  I remember thinking 'surely they cant drop any further', boy was i wrong.  They ended up at less than 1c before expiring worthless this year.




With my first experiment in Options, I remember thinking they can't drop any further. Learned my lesson just like you.

EXMOA_Excalibur Options: I hold too many, shifted some today at $0.001! Beer money really, but it is now *my* beer money, not someone else's. 
Two directors retired yesterday! I don't take chance on whether they were good or bad directors. I just know the price may move. They can do 1 for 10 maybe worse - or sit on the floor till expiring worthless *(Dec 2012)



JimBob said:


> Had every opportunity to sell them on the way down but they ended up just being a lesson for the future about being more conservative with options.




You buy options cos they're geared. You can make more. So you get greedy! "I want more from these" and bang.

Thank you for sharing,
burglar


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

ALL Reports found at ASX using Code MGK

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do

I get the feeling all of you already know the MIL / MGK story.
Shall we go on? 

Or is it the sucking of the eggs?

Where were we?
Oh yes. December 2003 with 9,000 eggs in one basket. 

Anyone notice that alternative sites for the factory were under investigation?
If the factory was to be built in Victoria or Queensland, then the Fixed Price Contract would be null and void. 
There is a report actually mentioning the need to get new Fixed Price Contract.

21May2004 Capital Raising further diluting the Share Price by issuing ever more shares.
early March2005 Kiss-of-Death Consolidation of shares; 1 for every 20

More skywriting, this time evaluation of overseas sites:
Magnesium Smelter moves to Middle East to achieve World’s Lowest Production Cost

Egypt is selected.

Like a thunder bolt out of the blue!!!!- on 15Dec2005
Sorry, we can’t afford the latest Fixed Price Contract due to the Commodity Boom
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20051215/pdf/3trbsrc8sshr0.pdf


----------



## pma99 (2 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Maybe you're Worst Pick Ever was a sold too early story, you know, the Motza that got away.
> 
> Im sure there are
> But For what its worth this is my Resources portfolio.
> Maybe you'll notice something of interest




G'day Tech

I have been looking at the white numbers on the red/blue background and I am interested in what it is I should notice. Here's my list:

- 2 positions with multiple sell lmt and sell stp orders, larger than other positions - is this due to adding to winning positions ?

- Large variation in position sizes even with single sell lmt and sell stp orders (no pyramiding) - is this due to position sizing based on trade risk, ie, buy-stp, to limit portfolio risk to a maximum pre-determined figure for any one position ?

- No large losses (compared to the size of the gains) - exit before the loss gets too big.

- All positions have sell lmt and sell stp orders - maximum loss and profit targets decided before starting the trade.

Have I made too many assumptions, what have I missed ?

Cheers

Paul


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

pma99 said:


> G'day Tech
> 
> I have been looking at the white numbers on the red/blue background and I am interested in what it is I should notice. Here's my list:
> 
> ...




I think your on the money
but dont let on to the duck 
you'll make his day.


----------



## luke256 (2 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> was a good learning experience tho
> 
> but hey some of us aint as perfect as others make themselves out to be in here
> 
> or they could be full of ..........




Nunthe wiser you seemed to get fired up about my post did i hit a nerve! Havn't read anyone saying they are perfect on this post. 

There a lot of posts saying 'hey i lost $$$, held on too long, learnt my lesson etc. But not much discussion of what was actually learnt from the bad trade and how that mistake can be avoided in future trades. 

If no one gives ideas on how to reduce the effect of bad trades (i.e stop loss orders, useful FA etc) this post is of no benefit to people reading it, other than to make them feel better that someone else is losing more money than they are!

I trade forex now and havn't had a massive gap against me, always have good liquidity - thus my stops work when i am wrong limiting my loss. When i traded stocks never had any major issues with gaps or liquidity.


----------



## Boggo (2 December 2010)

Why am I constantly reminded of the late, great and occasionally sober Brendan Behan and his musings...

"Critics are like eunuchs in a harem: they know how it's done, they've seen it done every day, but they're unable to do it themselves."


----------



## luke256 (2 December 2010)

burglar said:


> I bought EXMOA at $0.002  ... where exactly, should I have put a stop loss order to avoid 50 - 100% loss.




In my opinion the monthly chart for EXM (underlying security of the option) is showing the main trend as being down since March this year when it took out the September 2009 low. So probably shouldn't have bought call options on this stock in the first place.


----------



## nunthewiser (2 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> This post is hilarious. I had a look at the charts that people lost big money on and they were all trending downwards on the monthly high/low charts.
> 
> Possibly if you are in that boat (50% plus losses on one stock) you should print out monthly charts before buying. Take it to a 5 year old and ask them which way the lines are going. If they say down DON'T BUY IT!




 This is what you posted which was actually totally INCORRECT in my scenario



nunthewiser said:


> Not mine Buddy
> 
> QTM was a flatline with a rumour/team/inside story  and caused a 1 day multi bagger spike....was a proffesional con job and stung a few of us greedy folk...( even made the papers...("wizards of bourse") )
> 
> ...




That is what i posted



luke256 said:


> Nunthe wiser you seemed to get fired up about my post did i hit a nerve! Havn't read anyone saying they are perfect on this post.
> 
> .




Yawn

end of discussion


----------



## nunthewiser (2 December 2010)

Boggo said:


> Why am I constantly reminded of the late, great and occasionally sober Brendan Behan and his musings...
> 
> "*Critics are like eunuchs in a harem: they know how it's done, they've seen it done every day, but they're unable to do it themselves." *




BINGO!

have a great day Boggo


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> Nunthe wiser you seemed to get fired up about my post did i hit a nerve! Havn't read anyone saying they are perfect on this post.
> 
> If no one gives ideas on how to reduce the effect of bad trades (i.e stop loss orders, useful FA etc) this post is of no benefit to people reading it, ...




I *overwhelmingly* agree that we should post to benefit people=newbies reading it.

nunthewiser had a bad day as is shown by the new thread started that day.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21144

I too, also, was a little harsh! Sorry


----------



## nunthewiser (2 December 2010)

burglar said:


> nunthewiser had a bad day as is shown by the new thread started that day.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21144




The thread that i started had nothing to do with having a bad day..

in fact had a great day .

i started that thread as ppls expert opinions on stuff they obviously knew nothing about were starting to annoy me .

i knew there was a reason i had stopped posting on forums up until the last couple of days .

My thread title says it all .. 

avaniceday sweetcheeks .

out of here


----------



## luke256 (2 December 2010)

You keep saying your going but come back for more posts. You'll be back!!!


----------



## nunthewiser (2 December 2010)

has realised something valuable 

If i argue with Idiots it must make me one too for taking the time out of my day .

Thanks guys


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> In my opinion the monthly chart for EXM (underlying security of the option) is showing the main trend as being down since March this year when it took out the September 2009 low. So probably shouldn't have bought call options on this stock in the first place.




The original question was mathematical, this reply is epistemological!


----------



## luke256 (2 December 2010)

It sure does nunthewiser. Your last reply confirmed it. haha this forum is great.


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

there is a story goes like this:

A hero standing on the beach sees a newbie caught in the rip.
The newbie is swimming towards shore *against* the rip.
The hero swims to shouting range and shouts "Swim parallel to the shore!"
AND *DEMONSTRATES* his exit strategy! Both swim parallel to the shore until they exit the rip.
Then they swim to shore.

There, that's the summary to my first thread!
Just squabble amongst yourselves! 

I know I learnt a lot, hope others benefit too. 

Cheers,


----------



## luke256 (2 December 2010)

Hey Burglar,

What i was trying to say was that i wouldn't be in the trade long to begin with and therefore wouldn't need to calc where a stop loss.

A stop loss wouldn't be of much use for you on that option from the looks of it. I would buy fewer options to manage risk so if they expired worthless the draw down on the portfolio is less. If you are trading with 100k account and only wanted to risk 5% per trade then i would buy no more than $5000 worth of options. 

It will limit the profits compared to smacking 50k or 100k at a time but will allow around 20 bad trades (exc. commissions) in a row before you are wiped out. 

In most cases for a long trade I'll put my stops under the previous swing bottom on the swing chart.


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> Hey Burglar,
> 
> What i was trying to say was that i wouldn't be in the trade long to begin with and therefore wouldn't need to calc where a stop loss.
> 
> ...



I know what you were *trying* to say ... i'm just patiently waiting ... waiting ... waiting


----------



## tech/a (2 December 2010)

*Paul*


pma99 said:


> G'day Tech
> 
> I have been looking at the white numbers on the red/blue background and I am interested in what it is I should notice. Here's my list:
> 
> - 2 positions with multiple sell lmt and sell stp orders, larger than other positions - is this due to adding to winning positions ?




Yes



> - Large variation in position sizes even with single sell lmt and sell stp orders (no pyramiding) - is this due to position sizing based on trade risk, ie, buy-stp, to limit portfolio risk to a maximum pre-determined figure for any one position ?




Yes



> - No large losses (compared to the size of the gains) - exit before the loss gets too big.




Yes Run the winners
What you dont see (Cant see) is the stops getting cranked UP when the stock stalls or corrects



> - All positions have sell lmt and sell stp orders - maximum loss and profit targets decided before starting the trade.




Sell limits are only there incase of a spike I move these out if its going well.



> Have I made too many assumptions, what have I missed ?




The reward to risk is around 10:1 on that screen Yesterday
Todays screen looks very different.

My Portfolio management is agressive cutting losses/Adding to positions/Taking profit/Adding new positions.
The bottom line is to have the equity line continually ticking over to the positive.
If you have a portfolio page like this one below then thats GOING to happen.

Index trades are traded AH on the FTSE and DAX.
These are short term from intraday/night to a few days.

Good to see we have some people on this board with enquiring minds and common sense--


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> *Paul*
> Good to see we have some people on this board with enquiring minds and common sense--




"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." 

enquiring minds ... mmm tick yes, I have that
common sense ... is not so common 

Hey duck!
I googled ducks+on+the+pond

http://www.google.com.au/search?q=ducks+on+the+pond

In my wildest dreams I did not expect this ! lol

Cheers,
enquiring mind :


----------



## Sean K (2 December 2010)

burglar said:


> We've all had one.
> 
> Great writeups in great Magazines.
> Share price in a strong upward trend.
> ...



My first wife!


----------



## burglar (2 December 2010)

kennas said:


> My first wife!




was she a lion, and were all your offspring tions?


----------



## Poppypop (2 December 2010)

awg said:


> Its pretty frustrating to hold a speccie/value stock with great prospects for a while,
> 
> it drifts lower, you lose patience, sell, and shift capital elswhere
> 
> ...




lol yup that's happened to me with FMG in 2009. Bought 90,000 shares @$2.00 and sold for a loss @ $1.80 - Today they are worth $6.40.  Bought $50,000 shares of IPL@$2.50 in 2009 only to sell it on the open at $1.80 the next morning before it plummeted more - today they are worth $3.83. Really dumb I know and I'm still recovering from it today. I had only been in the sharemarket 3 months though and had no experience or education about share trading before that. Biggest lesson I have learn't is don't put all your eggs in one basket - you never know whats going to be around the corner. I don't use stop losses and have never felt compelled to do so in 2 years trading. I just have sms alerts sent to me if a stock falls below my lowest price and then i decide from there what i will do.


----------



## burglar (3 December 2010)

Poppypop said:


> lol yup that's happened to me with FMG in 2009. ... Really dumb I know and I'm still recovering from it today.




Wow, they are really big numbers!
But looking past that, I feel your pain! *appropriate emoticon*



Poppypop said:


> I don't use stop losses and have never felt compelled to do so in 2 years trading. I just have sms alerts sent to me if a stock falls below my lowest price and then i decide from there what i will do.




Are you saying that you stop losses but you don't use stop losses? 
Seems to me that SMS alerts are the next best way. 

PS I was castigated for time wasting whilst trawling the emoticons, but that day I found the one I wanted, Next time, I will know where to find it.


----------



## tech/a (3 December 2010)

> Biggest lesson I have learn't is don't put all your eggs in one basket




You would benifit from looking up and understanding Portfolio heat.


----------



## burglar (3 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> ...




I do get your points re TechAnalysis.
I am willing to devote the time!

But it's mentally draining, know what i mean?

Cheers,
burglar


----------



## nunthewiser (3 December 2010)

unreal.


----------



## tech/a (3 December 2010)

burglar said:


> I do get your points re TechAnalysis.
> I am willing to devote the time!
> 
> But it's mentally draining, know what i mean?
> ...




Your kidding!!

Google>>
Portfolio heat>>
Select>>
Read>>
Learn>>

This is NOT tech analysis it is portfolio management---Fundamental Discretionary--systematic--whatever.

Perhaps you'd like me to trade for you???
You never stop learning Ive only scratched the surface after 16 yrs!
They say 10000 hrs to become proficient.

Prepare to be drained for at least 8000 of them!
In the end you'll find you only need to learn about 5% of the 100% of information you find.


----------



## Boggo (3 December 2010)

burglar said:


> But it's mentally draining, know what i mean?




Awww diddums, do I sense some gen Y attitude.



tech/a said:


> Your kidding!!




Unfortunately I don't think he is !

127 posts since 22nd Nov and a source of light entertainment, what more can we ask for


----------



## burglar (3 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Your kidding!!
> 
> Google>>
> Portfolio heat>>
> ...



"Portfolio heat basically answers the question of how many new positions you can have open at any one time. Professional traders use this technique to manage and quantify their total risk in the market. They understand that trading is about the successful management of risk and they always know what the worst-case loss would be if all their positions were to hit their stops today."
Cool.
It has a name, a definition and no doubt a long string of examples and anecdotes.
I am guilty in the first degree ... not once but twice, cause I did it again before realising it was this "Portfolio heat" for which I had no name, no mentor at the time, (did I just here Boggo laff) 
It was not portfolio destroying, just delaying!

as always, insert  *appropriate emoticon*,
burglar


----------



## Julia (3 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> unreal.



On the contrary, nun, seemingly all too real.


----------



## nunthewiser (4 December 2010)

Julia said:


> On the contrary, nun, seemingly all too real.




definately a worry either way.


----------



## burglar (4 December 2010)

Boggo said:


> Awww diddums, do I sense some gen Y attitude.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




"A little bitty tear let you down, spoiled your act as a clown!"

I did my research!:

cheers,
burglar


----------



## burglar (4 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> unreal.




I googled Portfolio heat and it came in with some intelligent stuff.

HOWEVER, I also googled don't put all of your eggs in one basket

http://netnewsledger.com/?p=4402

So I figure talking duck has higher education than the rest of us.
Maybe?




When a duck talks, burglar listens.  If that is unreal , so be it~~


----------



## matty77 (6 December 2010)

Hot tip from neighbour, a sure thing.... I should have known better.

Missed out on the IPO, boohoo at $.25, bought in a $.17, I am a genius. Stock is now $.075 only bought $1000 though. So 57% down. Currently winning 10 out of 14 trades, thank god I only but $1k in. Holding until Uranium is sold to China... lol

neighbour bought more shares at $.25, her first go at buying shares, maybe $10k worth... woops... 

oh stock was FIS


----------



## burglar (6 December 2010)

matty77 said:


> Hot tip from neighbour, a sure thing.... I should have known better.
> 
> Missed out on the IPO, boohoo at $.25, bought in a $.17, I am a genius. Stock is now $.075 only bought $1000 though. So 57% down. Currently winning 10 out of 14 trades, thank god I only but $1k in. Holding until Uranium is sold to China... lol
> 
> ...




I don't own this thread, but i think I do! 
Matty77, I thank you for your contribution,

My original idea: to leave a legacy for newbies.
I was rather hoping for content rather 
than light entertainment! lol
Either way, its Ok!

Uranium to China, ... interesting!
Yes, I have a view on this *groan*
FWIW, I believe Namibian Uranium will reach China
before Aussie Uranium!

Matty, hang in, though. 
It's a pendulum, uranium will be back.


----------



## burglar (7 December 2010)

matty77 said:


> Hot tip from neighbour, a sure thing.... I should have known better. ...
> neighbour bought more shares at $.25, ...




Just curious! 
Was it the same neighbour?


----------



## pma99 (7 December 2010)

burglar said:


> I was rather hoping for content rather
> than light entertainment!




Hey burglar

Looks like it ain't working. Pots and black kettles spring to mind.

Paul


----------



## matty77 (7 December 2010)

burglar said:


> Just curious!
> Was it the same neighbour?




hahaha yeah it was, but seriously I only feel sorry for her....


----------



## burglar (7 December 2010)

tech/a said:


> Portfolio heat>>
> Perhaps you'd like me to trade for you???




Hi tech/a,
burglar needs help.
EXMOA buyer at .001
should I make some more beer money 
and reduce my exposure i.e. portfolio heat?


----------



## luke256 (8 December 2010)

burglar said:


> Hi tech/a,
> burglar needs help.
> EXMOA buyer at .001
> should I make some more beer money
> and reduce my exposure i.e. portfolio heat?




Hey burgs,

A good lesson to be learnt form Matty77's experience is don't follow tips from other people. 
If your trading (esp. leveraged products) i think you need a trading plan that triggers entry amd exit. This can be based on fundamantals or technical analysis but decisions should be based on something sound.

You could also ask yourself 'Is being exposed to the options keeping you up at night?' and secondly 'How much beer will it get you?'


----------



## nunthewiser (8 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> Hey burgs,
> 
> and secondly 'How much beer will it get you?'




Um NONE.

IF the buyer is at .001 it means he had to get them for free to sell them at a profit .

at best he bought them at .001 and taking a brokerage loss

other than that he bought them at .002 and taking a 50% losss ...

anyhoo i am now annoyed for even taking the time to post on this silly scenario.


----------



## luke256 (8 December 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Um NONE.
> 
> 
> 
> other than that he bought them at .002 and taking a 50% losss ...




I think the above is the case and is what i based my post on.  
Its not really a silly scenario to comment on when some stands to lose 50% of their investment.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 December 2010)

burglar said:


> should I make some more beer money
> and reduce my exposure i.e. portfolio heat?






luke256 said:


> Hey burgs,
> 
> A 'How much beer will it get you?'






nunthewiser said:


> Um NONE.
> 
> IF the buyer is at .001 it means he had to get them for free to sell them at a profit .
> 
> ...






avaniceday


----------



## luke256 (8 December 2010)

Nunthewiser not sure what you are banging you head against the wall for. I think you are confused about the situation you are commenting on. Burglar said previously that the options were bought at .002. 

Then burglar posted there is a buyer at .001 thus my assumption is if sold there would have been a 50% loss (exc. commisions). Or you could say burgler would get 50% of the intitial investment back to buy beer with.  

Someone correct me if i am wrong?????


----------



## burglar (8 December 2010)

luke256 said:


> Hey burgs,
> 
> A good lesson to be learnt form Matty77's experience is don't follow tips from other people.
> If your trading (esp. leveraged products) i think you need a trading plan that triggers entry amd exit. This can be based on fundamantals or technical analysis but decisions should be based on something sound.
> ...



luke256,
Pls don't call me burgs, another member here goes by that name.

To clarify, I posted this in EXM thread earlier, ... 

"Mr Kennas,
Being self-taught, my mentor also self-taught, I have trouble finding names.
Is this what you meant by averaging down?

03-09-2009 Sell EXM 50,000 0.0140 $682.01
29-05-2009 Sell EXM 87,638 0.0170 $1,471.86
13-05-2009 Buy EXM 87,638 0.0110 $982.01
17-12-2007 Buy EXM 25,000 0.0380 $967.99
10-12-2007 Buy EXM 25,000 0.0430 $1,092.99

Thanks to you, I have found the answer I sought since
22 November 2010, when I accidently fell into ASF.

I am in trouble with EXMOA because the underlying derivative has been
manipulated by forums, newsletters and prominent magazines.
I failed to do stop loss early on.
I missed an early chance to take a profit.
I was greedy and now comes the paying of the piper.

I fear they may now sit on the bottom till they expire worthless.
Or consolidate 1 for every 10 held (or worse) followed by erosion of the Share Price.
Not going there again.
If the buyer of EXMOA at $0.001 is still around, I will shift some today!

You have taught me a valuable lesson. Many thanks."

10 4


----------



## burglar (13 January 2011)

Oh! One last thing.

MGK are stilll around!
They are still pursuing a future with Magnesium.
Albeit their core focus has changed to Iron!

Do not trust them until they lay concrete.
An artist's impression of a factory,
in a glossy magazine, is just not sufficient!

burglar


----------



## burglar (2 July 2012)

burglar said:


> Oh! One last thing.
> 
> MGK are stilll around!
> They are still pursuing a future with Magnesium.
> ...




You guessed it, they had a name change!

FOYSON RESOURCES LIMITED
(FOY)

Best avoided!!


----------



## Craton (12 July 2014)

Nice thread and very apt to share clangers and the experience learned.

First loss was OzEmail, lost a couple of hundred on the takeover. Dot com debacle.

TLS, biggest realised loss just shy of 4K, whatever was left was split between ANZ and WBC, ha, that's over 8yrs ago now. Best move ever, turning a loser into two winners.

To me, BSL hurts the most where a nice 5K profit (I was too greedy) turned to a loss late '08 and still a paper hurt of 3K odd. Can't remember if Comsec had Stops available back then but I obviously didn't have one in place, then that stupid consolidation... when I look a BSL now I just shake my head. Probable offset it against a gain down the track.

To be fair on myself though re. BSL, at that time my eyes were firmly off the ball due to a couple of serious health matters within my family, with lots of travel to various cities for specialist treatment these simply had to take precedence, as family should.


----------

