# ADI - Adelphi Energy



## Dukey

G'day all - heres a new thread!!
I have wondered why there is not much talk about Adelphi. I've been watching for a while, but not holding (yet!!  ) 

ADI Seems to be an oil/gas exploration play with good potential with good backing from ARQ (Arc Energy).  They have just started drilling the Sugarloaf prospect in Texas.

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The following is condensed from ADI website - some info here could be slightly dated?

Sugarloaf Prospect:  ...." Mean potential reserves at Sugarloaf are estimated to be approximately 800 BCF of gas. However, given the large size of the prospect area, there is upside potential of several TCF if geological factors such as porosity, net sandstone and permeability combine favourably.
Note that the above reserve estimates ....do not include the gas and oil potential from the shallower Sugarloaf horizons."

Overview of ADI

 Petroleum exploration company,  Based  in WA.   

Aiming to identify and acquire a well balanced portfolio of Australian and international oil and gas exploration assets. Focus on frontier exploration areas which have the potential to add significant value for shareholders. 
Has approximately $10 million in cash - well funded to pursue its exploration strategy.

During 2006 Adelphi will participate in two high impact onshore gas exploration wells in Texas , USA . These comprise of the Sugarloaf Prospect, a major international quality exploration play with potential reserves of several TCF, and the lower risk New Taiton Prospect with multiple well-defined reservoir targets.

During 2005 Adelphi also successfully bid for two onshore exploration blocks in Yemen as part of an international joint venture group led by Oil Search Limited. Exploration activities on these blocks are expected to commence during 2006, with an extensive drilling program comprising at least seven exploration wells to kick off in 2007.

Strategic alliance with ARC Energy Limited ("ARC") via ARC's approximately 25% shareholding in Adelphi and access to ARC's technical, financial and administrative expertise.

Fully Paid Shares: 70,346,908

Options (unlisted)
    * 8,750,000 - 11 January 2007 ($0.25)
    * 8,550,000 - mid-June 2008 ($0.36)

Cash ~ $10 million            Bank Debt ~ None        Net Assets ~$12 million

Exploration Assets
USA: Sugarloaf, Texas (20%)  &  New Taiton, Texas (25%) 
Yemen: Exploration Blocks 7 & 74 (8.5%)
Timor Sea: AC/P32 (23.1%)
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Big potential here i feel - is anyone holding this one?? Anyone interested??


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## stiger

I hold ADI only for the potential positive outcome of Sugarloaf.All the data I have seen has been good .Cheers DYOR.


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## Dukey

Well stiger - sugarloaf is drilling as we speak - i believe!!

Could be interesting to see what happens if they hit paydirt.   

Maybe in September ??? What sort of timing do you expect.


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## Dukey

Drilling advice from ADI website as of Sept 5.
They say – Sugarloaf (20% holding for ADI) drilling ahead at 7000 odd feet.  
First target is around 12-14000 ft. (expect to reach it mid Sept) 
Primary Target is 21000ft (expect to reach Mid Oct.)

link is here if anyone is interested...

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...EPTEMBER 2006 - Sugarloaf-1 Weekly Report.pdf

-Dukey


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## stiger

Was looking around and found Rigzone which had a snippet on JV partner who expects big things from sugarloaf. Soon I hope.Dyor .Cheers.


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## Dukey

Trading Halt on ADI today!!   
What do you think it is Mr Stiger. Seems too early for the main gas target. But follows a quick rise from low 30's to 40c - maybe some leaky news? - (that would be something to remember).  Fingers and everything else crossed.
-Dukey


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## stiger

Its GAS how much only time will tell..This could be very very Good. EME in London up tonight on falling market also a good sign.DYOR.


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## Agentm

hello all..

no it aint just gas!!!!!!  and dont think the guys in USA are not excited by the austin chalks......  perhaps the asx rules dont allow unconfirmed speculation but private investors are allowed to say exactly what they see when ever they like... no rules there..

ADI and EKA and AUT were in a trading halt on friday, then had to give a report re sugarloaf.. which was fairly predictable, low key and not giving away anything 

perhaps you might be interested in this one from a private investor! 
it was posted on saturday.. i was certainly impressed!!!!!!!!!!

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success

We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.

Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

Sugarloaf 

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.



The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.



The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’



The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.



This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’

happy punting!!!!!!!!!!


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## nioka

ARQ hold a 25% interest in ADI. Thet may be worth looking at?


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## Agentm

if ADI find gas @P50 estimates, then ARQ will gain $1.00 to their share price,, the price of ADI will go $6.00 on that part of the find alone.. we are talking primary target here... it could go $12 on best case senario..

The interesting news was the oil in the shallow Zone..  and the talk of 100 wells to be drilled for it.. That hasnt been discussed in any prognosis so far,, and here in Australia they are saying nothing at all about the oil shows, nothing about porosity, only reporting a gas show and not even that it was causing huge problems with the backflow during the wireline log.... nothin in the wireline has been revealed,, but stateside the inveters are beside themselves at the moment,, and extremely excited..

If porosity is as they say,, then the current find goes beyong their expectations,  and potentially puts the find at the higher end of the potential, not at the lower end.. the Austin chals were eagerly signed up in April when a rig near by found big reserves in the zone,, looks like they have the same finds in this drill but with superior porosity..  meaning higher yields..

if they find gas in the primary target it will make it one of the largest onshore gas finds in the USA.. the monster rig is drilling away to 22,000 feet... and they have found a reserve in the secondary targets that potentially could be far in excess of their initial expectations, and with porosity that has been shown to be way beyond their  dreams...

They originally predicted a secondary find could be easily worth .63 to the share price,, what the market isnt understanding is that there is oil and gas there and in my opinion developing and drilling another 100 times to fully exploit the field means theres far more there than anyone has estimated..

its a share that could go at any time...


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## stiger

This has the makings of a very good speccie for me,I hope you all make gains from this stock.Cheers.Dyor.


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## Agentm

i have to agree with you, we all hope for big things on this stock,,

the owner of texas crude oil inc has a fine pedigree,, he sits on the board of some of the largest financial institutions, and infistructure companies, when you research him you sorta realise that these guys are the ones that make things happen and are more than capable of continuing to stay on that same path of success.. 
Texas crude itself is not exactly a small oil minnow,, but a long standing highly successful private oil company..  the people behind this operation are the type of people that you would say are amoungst the richest folk in the usa... and they dont deal in trash,, only very prospective and well researched projects.. 

Also one other private investor alone will pass all the engineering reports, 2d and 3ds etc  on to 4 different and independent analysts... if all 4 pass it then they go ahead..  they have a very tiny margin of failed projects,, a dry well is a rarity.. these guys really impress me no end

i keep my hopes up and i always invest with the best...  good luck all!!


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## cicak_kupang

I'm looking in2 buying this one as a spec stock.  I like what I have read around the place.  I agree that this stock could go off at any time.  Heres hopping.  I also like ARC, ADI's parent company, although down at the moment, due to dive in crude lately.  Arc is in the enviable position off benefiting from any ADI finds. And with good solid managing and sound financial position I feel both are worth while.... well... hope so...

Not an adviser, just a guy with eyes and ears and a hope....


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## Sean K

cicak.

Isn't that a gecko? 

Gordon type?


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## Agentm

ARQ has had 2 production wells drilled at jigema and hovea, so they will be producing oil at a higher rate.. they have to decide on either a further production well or start their exploration program... they have not discovered a drop of oil or gas in over 12 months,, dry well after dry well.. even origin lost faith in their program... lets hope their new program is more successful,, so far the offshore drills are also dry wells...  canning basin has become a problem,, its full of cowboys,, and a few weeks ago one of the canning basing lease owners REY, decided to sell their leases to a subsiduary company and according to ARQ in breach of their agreement to sell their leases to them... Canning has a bad repuataion of being problematic, with poor communications, poor cooperation with the traditional landowners, and too many shonks in the area... like the real wild west out there..  Yemen is likely to be a their immediate saviour after the Adelphi success...

I see ADI sister EME in the UK had a great rally last night. 7% rise and they had traded much higher,, neaarly 14% for a while... they are hot for the stock as they also have read the private operators reports and read 
"Sugarloaf: first phase success" as agenuine reason to believe the wireline logs that they reported were accurate, and that there is a swag of oil and gas there in the Austin Chalks that is yet to be officially announced by the 4 listed paertners due to the specific rules of their prospective exchanges... they all dont want speculation on their stocks at this time and are taking a very quiet and low key attitude to their exciting drill.. ARC announced the ASX last week through a corporate presentation to Maquarie WA emerging leaders conference, that their wire line logs at their sister company's sugarloaf drill as having "good shows". 

Lets see how they fair today after the resource sector plummets perhaps with the bad news of oil prices dropping... watch out for nigeria,, they are thinking of slowing down their supply and have civil unrest,, the fall may be short lived!!


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## Lucky_Country

Looking strong in early morning trade see how adi goes after update feeling real confident with sugarloaf almost feel with first target results will support sp if main target is a duster and that is becoming a more remote outcome by the day


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## Agentm

yes, the share price is going well again,,  the volumes are up which is what I expected, yesterday nearly 1 mill trades,, today its high already,, but dont expect any news on the primary target today, the announcement today in about 45 minutes is only going to say what depth they are drilling to. I think the market is gradually waking up to the stock and its potential..  i think if you research the stock you find each thing you find makes you more and more confident.. thats what i found..

the secondary targets hold much more value than the current share price..   .60 is a rough guide but the way they have carried on in the USA over the successes so far, and remembering that sligo is yet to be reported which is another seconday target,,, then after that comes hosston, which we all want to see being productive..  but the share price of the stock doesnt closely resemble the value od the secondaries so far confirmed..

enjoy the ride if you decide to get on board..


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## Lucky_Country

Totally agree with you assesment announcement was very sraight down the line with expectations but drilling is going well and only a few weeks till we find out how much money we can make should go with a bang but there are more good drilling targets too follow in the near future


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## Agentm

if you mean new tiaiton,, then yep,, its a low risk job,, worth about .60 and there are proven reserves on the same fault some 40k away... so its considered a low risk drill and they usally have a very high success rate in texas on drilling on proven plays..  yemen is another story,, they dont have their stuff together in yemen yet, its the yemens governments fault for the delays, but the mining rights have yet to be given,, and dont look likely to be given in the near term. perhaps Q1 07. if you noticed that ADI did some revenue raising recently?? then you probably realise that they need the cash for any further works to be done at sugarloaf or new tiaton,, its not widely reported but new tiaton has a secondary target on the same lease which they also can go after..  so they have heaps of cash handy to quickly develop any finds,, and also have the cash if they didnt have success, which currently isnt the case,, so dont expect them to announce that they are buying into any new field exploration leases in the near term.. they have to sit this out and then count the cash.. 

their silence is for me another indication of why i like the stock so much..


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## Lucky_Country

Good finish too the trading day even after a no news announcement growing in confidence


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## stiger

After the Couch Oil news I doubled my holding yesterday.News was steady today,which is a good thing .Big gains are to be made soon.Cheers Dyor.


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## Agentm

hey stiger,, noticed couch oil has taken their reports offline??

i kept a copy of it anyway,,, i know that news  that 100 wells to exploit the secondary targets so far discovered is great news,, and in my view the adi share should be double what it is today... the reserves alone required to make 100 wells viable has to be massive.. if you consider how much it costs for one well and what the minimum reserve has to be to pay that back,, then we are talking mighty high figures..

if you consider the data they have from the well that was drilled to 21,000 feet in 1974 just a few miles away showed 17ppg pressure at 21,000 then they can be quietly confident that should hosston be hydrocarbon rich like the 2d shows,, then they aint gunna say "hosston, we have a problem"!!!!! 
and they must have some idea of the porosity of the layers above hosston from that 1974 drill in any case!!  


the share price did go up as expected yesterday, about 8% or so??  but i feel its got a long way to go yet...  good to hear you topped up... i wish only good things for everyone who takes the journey.. this share impresses me more and more each day...

cheers


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## Lucky_Country

Well really going well this morning just feeling more and more confident about sugarloaf almost in a no lose situation with the first secondary target seemingly doing so well only time will tell but i'm excited !


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## nioka

Empyrean Energy ( a 6% holder in the well ) do not show a change in the US market. You would expect them to have inside knowledge. Does this mean anything. Couch Oil page still not available.


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## Agentm

EME announced their director resigned so their shares dropped immediately.. they picked up a little after that and closed a little down for the day...

the volumes on adi are staggering today.. 

the couch oil site remains offline..  

i wouldnt read too much into eme and the other partners in the deal,, ADI is by far the best value share as rated by stock brokers,, they see adi share value as increasing by the biggest marging over the others on any find...

lets see how the coming few days pan out,, each day they are nearing the hosston target... time to get on board .........


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## Lucky_Country

Well volume is great today a bit of publicity and ADI could rocket even before results are announced 60c cannot be that far away maybe after next weeks update


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## Agentm

6% rise today!!!!

on the tail of an 8.22% 1.39% 5.88% 3.03%

i see EKA has gone on a capital raising venture... not bad 22cent a share for the price of todays stock..

i must say i am enjoying this...   
please make sure to remind me of why i am such a pill when it drops!!!! 

but today i gloat.......  

i sorta cant wait and see what this stock does when it actually announces something!!!!!!!


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## Dukey

OK - so it seems everyone is expecting big things from sugarloaf!!    

And Yes - it just like agentm says - everything you read/hear about sugarloaf makes you more confident. When i first checked out ADI (because of their rel. with ARQ) I thought - ' there is big potential here'.   I couldn't believe there was no ADI thread here at aussiestocks!!!  

But now the thread is happening - the true value of these forums has just come through to me like a brick to my head - the information we can gather collectively and spread around works for all of us!! I wouldnt know where to look for the info/chat from US investors. So thanks heaps for that Agentm; Lucky_Country; stiger.

My initial confidence has doubled - (kicked along by QGC's big jump on takeove news) & now I'm trying to figure out how much more ADI i can afford !!

PS - agentM - who do you work for ... "control" or "kaos" !!!


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## stiger

nioka said:
			
		

> Empyrean Energy ( a 6% holder in the well ) do not show a change in the US market. You would expect them to have inside knowledge. Does this mean anything. Couch Oil page still not available.



With regard to the couch oil page i have a feeling that it was an interoffice email that was unwittingly posted on the website,hence the stopping of all access.This is my opinion only. pls Dyor.


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## Broadside

I think Couch website was there to inform private investors who also have a stake in the project (as part of Texas Crude Energy et al)...although I couldn't find any documentary evidence which shows they were part of Sugarloaf.


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## nioka

Broadside said:
			
		

> I think Couch website was there to inform private investors who also have a stake in the project (as part of Texas Crude Energy et al)...although I couldn't find any documentary evidence which shows they were part of Sugarloaf.



Texas Crude Energy have 41.5% interest in sugarloaf and are the operator.


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## Broadside

hi nioka, I meant I couldn't find evidence COuch was part of the Texas group


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## pistol72

to all
just wanted to say what a fantastic thread,great f/a,discussion. this is what a forum like this is all about,keep up the good work. will try to work out how to post a chart to make a contribution.
pete


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## Agentm

i see EME traded well again over in the UK  reached a high of 58 i think then back to 55p, still up on the day...  good volumes agaain..

Mr Fluor is well credentialed... as the man who runs Texas crude he is also involved as a board memeber of Fluor Corp, yes its been named after his family name and even though its a publically listed company, they still have family members closely involved in the show.. check it out if you havent heard of it,  and if you think that puppy aint big, its voted by Fortune 500 as No# 1 best infistructure corporation. 
Mr. Fluor received a Bachelor of Science Degree in Finance from the University of Southern California in 1970 followed by a Masters in Business Administration in 1972.
Mr. Fluor serves on the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase Bank in Houston, Texas and on the Board of Devon Energy Corporation in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. He has been a member of the Board of Directors of Fluor Corporation in Irvine, California since 1984, and assumed the responsibilities of Chairman in January 1998 through July 1998. In February 2003, Mr. Fluor was elected Lead Independent Director of Fluor Corporation. Mr. Fluor is also a member of the All American Wildcatters, the American Petroleum Institute and the Council of Overseers of the Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Management at Rice University. Formerly, he was an Advisory Director of DLJ Merchant Banking Partners, served on the Executive Board of the Sam Houston Area Council, Boy Scouts of America, as a Director of St. Joe Gold Corporation in St. Louis, Missouri, as a Director of the Capitol Legal Foundation in Washington, D.C., and on the Boards of St. John’s School and the University of St. Thomas in Houston, Texas and Robert Louis Stevenson School in Pebble Beach, California.
Mr. Fluor enjoys golf and is a member of The Augusta National Golf Club, Cypress Point Club and River Oaks Country Club.
Mr. Fluor and his wife have three children.

If you read the spiel you see he's a hands on guy,, he runs the places that he or his children obviously attend... that tells you a lot about his character...
There are a few other directorships not listed here that he also heads up in the last year or so..

As for ADI and ARC energy,,, I have been accumulating  from day one this stock,, first came accross this ADi when it was announced to commence at a ARQ roadshow...  so ADI has all directors as major shareholders,, they understand the value of the leases.. and the potential.. They all have somewhere to go if and when ARQ is bought out by another oil company!!! somewhere where their money is being looked after by good people,, themselves.. who else would you trust???? 

I also noticed a few months back that a certain  MR Allchurch suddenly became a major shareholder of EKA.. It took me a few days to figure out why that name stuck in my head all the time,,, he was the guy that signed off on all the AUT ASX announcements.. he's a long standing senior and well respected engineer.. he obviously saw the value of sugarloaf when AUT got involved,, and when EKA became involved in sugarloaf  (and changed its name from a mining company to a energy comapany) Mr Allchurch bought a massive swag of that stock... So in my view, an independent reviewed from a company gets excited enough to become a major shareholder of a sister company in the same project, and that company had nothing of any significance before that, except a few mining leases amounting to very little, then it was time for me to take this venture a whole lot more seriously...

this stock has success written all over it.. in my opinion..

oh and by the way Dukey,, control!!   

once this stock lights up... we can all sit back and smoke cigars and watch the grass grow!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Lucky_Country

Agentm you are full of hot info you love this stock I personally feel that we may have hit a jackpot at sugarloaf and may suprise us all !


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## Agentm

got as high as 7.4% up on the day before the close,, then the usual sink afterwards.. and AUT got a good 6% and EKA a little boost also..  nice volumes again..

sorta know how the Cudeco investors may feel,, seeing an exploration stock with no turnover going up on speculation,,

lets see what monday brings!!!


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## stiger

Atm I would say tightly held .All the pessimists seem to have vanished.Bring on next week.Dyor


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## Lucky_Country

Cant belive someone sold at 43.5 right on the close they will never get ADI at those prices ever again.


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## stiger

Strange influences come into play @4.10 every day.I see it on my watchlist.Cheers.


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## Agentm

stiger.. i was given some nice pm's today re couch, which confirmed my suspicions,,,  i tracked down some good UK site in the past week re EME,, and there i came up with this.. its an investor talking about his conversation with EME re their prospects,,, the sugarloaf portion is interesting...

sussex02 - 6 Oct'06 - 00:48 - 8053 of 8071

To sum up a 1 hour conversation in a post is very difficult indeed. Tom is extremely professional and a credit to EME, we are lucky to have this guy.

He did not tell me anything that could be deemed as market sensitive, however I do not wish to break his confidence by posting all of what we discussed on a bb as I doubt that he would talk to me again at length next time.

So my personal opinion following my conversation with Tom re a few bits is this.

Eagle - An update should come out back end of next week. All partners have certainly had more than their share of bad luck on this one. They know they have oil, and plenty of it so still a major frustration not being able to get it out. Whatever the outcome of this latest drilling I don't expect EME to walk away from Eagle. At this stage it would appear to still be in the balance, no good news but no bad news either, some parts of the drilling and clean up process appear to be going well, but I am certainly no oil expert so just my interpretation.

As for valuation we did discuss numbers and if Eagle comes in good then a figure of #2.00 was discussed.

Sugarloaf - Spent ages talking about this project. Think Couch will have had their knuckles rapped re their web-site postings. At the end of the day as we all know they are a private company and not restricted like other partners in terms of what they can say. At the end of the day what they posted was just their interpretation of the data that was provided to all partners! Tom stated that EME did not necessarily agree or disagree with what Couch had stated, it was just their interpretation. Therefore I guess more research into Couch and their track record would probably be a good thing! ;-)

I certainly got the impression that the log data (on paper) must have looked bloody good indeed, but log data is not $'s in the bank yet! I think the Couch posting helps confirm how good the data must have looked. Personally I am pretty excited by this secondary target, but I do not expect to hear any more about it now until the end of the project. What is good though is that it is now behind casing and should the primary target not deliver then they will go and test this target.

Also don't rule out some of the other zones that Couch were negative on.

As for the primary target, we all know the same information at this stage. Although EME only hold 6%, the leverage here is massive if it comes in at the upper end of estimates. We talked about a number of #4.00 + to EME.

All partnets are very happy with the operator, bloody exciting, keep things X'd

Glantal - didn't discuss as my wife was nagging me as we were going out for dinner.

Director resignation - It would not stop me buying more shares tomorrow if I didn't think I already had enough ;-) The important 2 at EME are Tom & Frank and they are 100% committed to the success of EME and are very motivated to see us trading much higher than current levels.

We discussed lots more and if anyone has any specific questions then please ask and I will try and answer either here or on messenger.

Regards

Sussex


Always glad to share...


i wouldnt sell a single share of adi until after they finished the wireline logs... i cant understand why there anyone would sell at the prices trading right now... in three weeks the stock has to be worth twice what it is on the secondaries alone,, maybe more if its oil rich,, and the primary is mind blowing... if i sold today and saw what was happeneing in 3 weeks to those shares i sold... then would have to say i wouldnt be able to forgive myself.. 



have a sensational weekend all,, 

i am going to celebrate a bit after this weeks performance!!!  

just because i can!!


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## Lucky_Country

Well we all seem happy so far just feel more confident in ADI than those in GDN and so does the market.
Should be good here when we hit the $$$$$$$


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## Broadside

EME was flying last night in London, closed well up

hopefully a taste of things to come


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## Lucky_Country

Hopefullly ADI will emulate EME on monday all good from here on in


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## Lucky_Country

Morning fellow ADI people well hopefully this week will bring at least 50c if not higher havent heard anymore news over the weekend roll on wednesday


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## Agentm

EME made some staggering gains on friday... and again on no announcements, and the speculation there is that their past drills are basically useless,, and their only future is with sugarloaf... plenty of buyers there,, and with couchy being rapped over the knuckles and he is now only posting info on completed drills on his website,, we can safely assume that the prognosis on the secondaries was quite good and correct, but is officially censored from announcing anything until after the drill is completed and production tested.. but to have such a lot of pressure with even fracturing is damn encouraging.. 

AUT has gone 10% and ADI 14% already,, maybe some great news as on the horizon???

but this stock is absolutely going on a rocket ride right now...


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## Lucky_Country

Everyone is confident at the momment thats just a great sign and can only see an upside from here on in just hope none of us are dissappointed 49c already todat looking great


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## Philippe

I m a noob in chart reading, but isn t it a continuation gap we had today?


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## cicak_kupang

Its now monday night, north korea has done the nuc test and thats sure to sent the price of oil higher tonight on the nymex.  Tomorrow is tuesday, the day b4 ADI will make its weekly drilling update.  Seems to me a good time to jump in on ADI and ARQ to make a quick buck?


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## stewart3250

Hi all, Uk here , I am an eme holder, SP today finished @ 65.5p tonight thats up another 6.5% today, we did touch 68.5p at one point today, eme has risen from 43.5p to 65.5p during october that's a 50% rise, most of it down to Sugarloaf, we have eagle in California which could go either way and Glantal which i would say is currently on the back burner.

Be interested in seeing your views and postings on your share price, good indicator, I will do the same regarding eme, anyone heard anything else on Sugarloaf, bit quiet sice news from Couch has dried up.


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## Agentm

hey stewart..  welcome to the forum..

you are in the same position as us, couch was the best news we could get, its obvious that the report were outstanding, and the market here reacted a little, but its taken some time for it to wake up, yesterday we saw great volumes for the first time, which indicates the speculators are getting on board,, for me, i am a long term accumulator of the stock, i have faith in new tiaon and yemen also,,  but this drill at sugarloaf has success all over it and with couchy confirming it we are extremely optomistic,,  expect big things today again,, as EME did!!!

cheers


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## stiger

Hello Stew welcome aboard today I also predict a rising sp on large t/o.Eme is very encouraging,I feel big money has yet to come for ADI.Regards.


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## Lucky_Country

Good too hear from you in the UK stew we here are all waiting like yourself on tomorrows update Im hoping it will be a positive 1 with no hold ups and have reached the next target if that is the case ADI will go up at least 10% as would EME.
Good luck too all that hold


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## Agentm

EME continues to shine!!!!!!!  and for a  partner in the deal and only having a 6% holding they have had a 40% risse in their share price, and still rising..

What amazes me is that ADI and AUT hold 20% stakes each..  thats over 3 time EME holding yet the share price had hardly risen to reflect their holding..

The secondary targets are as we know significant.. they announce the mud is flowing back from the well, yet no ones excited,,  if you calculate how much pressure is needed to lift that amount of mud back up the well... then you dont need to be a rocket scientist to figure that pressure aint a problem in the Austin chalks..

maybe we will hear soon if any further gas shows will be announced in Sligo... and then there is still hosston..

Anyone buying ADI at the price it is today is doing well, they are definately get the full benifit of the knowledge the secondary pays are there and they are worth anything from .60 added to the share price...  the stock is worth over $1 on speculation alone on finds,, and the market has yet to come near 50% of what the stock is worth with a confirmed massive gas column with a massive backkick of pressure...

i still say that its not a wisker near its speculation price,,

the  EME stock is a good show of how 6% holding can have when its struck gas... anyone selling at the prices today is definately going to regretting their decision in the coming weeks... good luck to anyone getting the stock at todays prices... your getting a gift!!


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## crab4t

Hi to everyone interested in Sugarloaf.--  Here in the UK Empyrean energy was up again today 6.1% and there"s a great sense of excitement/anticipation pending wednesdays update on Sugaloaf. There will be a few of us up in the wee small hours hoping to get early reaction from you guys down under!!. Thanks to you all for your refreshing honesty and good luck to us all in the future. Regards Crabby.


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## maverick11

very interesting price drop?!?  Hmm should i buy more??


----------



## nioka

maverick11 said:
			
		

> very interesting price drop?!?  Hmm should i buy more??



I bought more. At the top this morning (And was worried I'd miss out.) Maybe there is some bad news coming today? Have we been subjected to spin? Only time will tell.


----------



## Agentm

nervous day traders... selling to get some small gains before the news..

todays news should be interesting.. we get to find out how close they are to the hosston sands.. and maybe some clues on sligo?


i have a position on this stock,,,  and i dont sell till the fat lady sings..

new tiaton is about to start in a few weeks also.. and thats also very low risk well.. so if all fails at sugarloaf,, which we know hasnt happened.. then tiaton is going to be just as exciting.. with couchy already letting the news out and the EME director talking big on the secondary targets.. if you research the figures you will see that all estimates for top price are on the 800BCF senario getting $6 to the share... if you read the EKA disclosure document and read the independent report from Oilfield Development Specialists say a P50 reserve by most parties is for 1TCF with reserves estimates by them in excess of 6TCF at the other end of the scale..  

so $6 is a likely senario on hosston, and it can go up to 6 times that!!!

today will be an interesting day indeed..


----------



## maverick11

what i dont get is why would people sell just hours prior to a good ann?? (i hope!)


----------



## Broadside

my view is that if they had interesting news it would be announced as and when it happens...therefore today will be a run of the mill announcement...and the ADI sell off is because traders are catching on to this fact whereas maybe they were hoping for positive news.....given the depth and diffculty of the well I believe "steady as she goes" is positive news!  and ADI ran ahead of its other Aussie partners somewhat, was hoping they would play catch up but alas it is coming back to the field.

I remain very positive, especially as it looks like they have already encountered some very interesting hydrocarbons at shallower levels.  High risk-high reward, for me nothing has changed, just the risks have been diminished somewhat (possible shallow target success) and the returns potentially increased.


----------



## Agentm

maverick11 said:
			
		

> oh crap... do i have the balls to buy more?  I think so,  Tossing up between more of these or VMS.  cheers




when magnolia didnt happen for ADI there was a leak,, and if you look at the share trades, you can see the poeple who were in the know were given ample time to exit before the plunge,, so there is form out there in the past for news to be leaked.. just like the news was leaked before the Austin chalks were announced and a trading halt was given...

based on todays volume,, i would say that even though ADI has as much leaks as the titanic, the volumes today are so small i dont smell any rats out there today.. EKA and AUT have hardly traded!!!

so my hunch is day traders without positions,, small time stuff...

if volumes go up.. then maybe you can see that there is yet more leaks..

cheers...


----------



## Agentm

good pick broadside...

15,581 feet...  they knew it would be slow going.. didnt expect it to be that slow..

lets see how many are prepared to sell the stock off now!!!

go get them maverick!!!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well nothing spectacular have slowed down a bit but at least it seems trouble free.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> nervous day traders..
> 
> 
> i have a position on this stock,,,  and i dont sell till the fat lady sings.



I agree But I did pay too much today. My average price is still good as I have held them since the start and have bought along the line. They are my stock pick so I hope the well is finished this month. I am still worried about spin doctors and insider trades.


----------



## Agentm

hey nokia..

timing the market or time in the market?

i aint going to change my position on this stock.. i look at the people running the show.. then at the research... 80 square KM's or 20,000 acres of the best oil producing land in the world.....

within 30 km radius of sugarloaf was Pawnee and Fashing they produced around 5TCF gas and 100 MMBBLs oil..  In the Edwards and Sligo.. 

only recently have the Austin chalks to the north have become noticed.. and texas crude has deliberately kept thing quiet about that play...

We have yet to get to Sligo...  and Hosston is after...  Couchy said Edwards was too tight... and EME directors said dont believe Couch oils summary,, could be jumping the gun a little. and to not believe everything that you hear about that... Austin Chalks were productive, gas and oil shows,

What no one figures here is that the Austin Chalks were kept quiet,, no estimates have been made for them.. The estimates were on Edwards  Sligo and Hosston... so we have Austin as a success and Edwards as being debated,, one says maybe the other says it looks tight..  

Sligo is about to be drilled... and that region is proven to be productive within 30kms..  In my books thats 2 out of 2 and the third is being drilled..

So they cant announce that they have massive plays,, but they havent announced that nothing was found!!!!  so if you follow the rules of engagement then you cant discount Austin chalks,  and definately cant rule out edwards.. neither have been denied and they certainly have been confirmed..

so why would you sell???

the ones selling aint got a clue about the stock.. they are speculators and day traders,, they dont hold a position and do things their way...

Nothing will let me sell the stock i hold,, and i didnt accumulate for nothing!!

do the sums,, do the research and you can see that this drill is only one thing,, a fine example of success... 2 out of 2  and one find was oil rich according to couchy..  remember the 100 wells statement... so potentially .60 cents plus on the share value there alone???

I am confident as you well know,, others are teetering and nervous as they dont have the confidence in their research,, or their research is based on other ideas... 

I wont ever disclose any information i  found in my conversations with ADI and ARQ over the years,, but when you look at a company with all its directors owning 5% of it, you have to wonder why they are not selling right now!!! because its absolutely insane to sell right now when they are drilling into a proven play smack in the middle of one of the most productive belts in texas, and with 2 plays allready in the bag...

let the doubters bail...

cheers.. and for all new investors.. good luck to you all..


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:
			
		

> good pick broadside...
> 
> 15,581 feet...  they knew it would be slow going.. didnt expect it to be that slow..
> 
> lets see how many are prepared to sell the stock off now!!!
> 
> go get them maverick!!!!




there is actually a silver lining in the slower drill rate, it means the Sligo target has not yet been hit and still has potential  :  located just above primary target I believe....I tried to post this on HC but they seem to be having issues at the moment


----------



## Dukey

No problems at all here - they predicted MID to LATE October for hosston (or is it hosson ??)- 11th is barely mid. 
You wont catch me selling this yet.  When they get there it will jump and we'll all be jumping with it - jumping for joy. : 

(IMHO)


----------



## Agentm

satisfactory formation integrity test..

when you research about them, you can draw at least two conclusions aabout them and what they are used for..  one is for testing the inegrity of the casing,, the other is high tech and very modern mapping that is done post wireline logging to get amazing detail whats happening in the zones of interest..  now which one did they do????


----------



## Agentm

10th OCT 2006  15,581 @ 6AM texas time is 9PM Melb time same day 

480 feet per day at that depth.. 20 per hour is the average expected rate if its problem free...

so at 9AM melbourne time today they are at 16301.. 

at 9PM tonight they will be 16,541 

at 9AM tomorrow they will be 16,781

at 9PM tommow night they will be 17,021

So all of Sligo will be totally drilled by end of trade tomorrow,, then we will have to look at London for any further updates through friday night until Saturday morning

9AM sat morning melb time, and a few hours after the close of the LSE  they will be at 17,261

so its getting nearer by the hour..

cheers


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:
			
		

> 10th OCT 2006  15,581 @ 6AM texas time is 9PM Melb time same day
> 
> 480 feet per day at that depth.. 20 per hour is the average expected rate if its problem free...
> 
> so at 9AM melbourne time today they are at 16301..
> 
> at 9PM tonight they will be 16,541
> 
> at 9AM tomorrow they will be 16,781
> 
> at 9PM tommow night they will be 17,021
> 
> So all of Sligo will be totally drilled by end of trade tomorrow,, then we will have to look at London for any further updates through friday night until Saturday morning
> 
> 9AM sat morning melb time, and a few hours after the close of the LSE  they will be at 17,261
> 
> so its getting nearer by the hour..
> 
> cheers





think that rate is too high Agent M, they did 1000 feet last week, I would halve that rate of progress, it was that rate until the past week but they have slowed down...it's all good anyway


----------



## Agentm

i went by info from other site... ie drill rates reportedly announced by EME to investors and brokers last week.. 

i was assuming 24 hour drilling and assuming 20feet per hour was about as much as you can get at these depths..

anyone heard any from anywhere what sort of rates per hour they can get?  is 20 too high per hour at these depths?

sorry to all, if i am confusing or putting out wrong figures.. i was trying to second guess where they may be and just posted what i had found..

cheers again...


----------



## Broadside

you may be right Agent M, and perhaps the "integrity testing" held them up somewhat, the integrity test produced "satisfactory" results, quite intriguing...the true rate probably lies between our 2 figures...say 12 or 14 feet per hour    I also read 20 feet per hour previously, I am just going on the latest weekly report where they slowed down.  So I think Sligo must be within the next few days and as they say yesterday top of Hosston towards end of month.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Im sure we will get an update between now and the weekly update telling us how the sligo formation has gone if we dont well it may mean that they have encountered drilling problems which they woulod tell us on there weekly update.
I m more than confident that drilling is going well and the sligo formation will be a success


----------



## Agentm

OK....  its time to get things straight,,

ARQ just posted an annoucement,, Euroz conference presentation..

As you may know,, they always include ADI drills in their presentation..

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20061012/pdf/00655868.pdf

This is their spin..

"Shallow objective appears economic - requires testing"

then

"currently in the 2500 foot thick Sligo secondary objective. Another 10 days to the Hosston"

Well i am stoked!!!!

they confirm the Secondary find appears economic... 

so you cant possibly take a loss on the stock at the price its at...  its yet to price in the value of the secondary find.. so its now an absolute winner...

as for my 20 feet per hour,, i am way off.. 10 days they say!!!

watch them take off now..  I know the directors at ARQ are pretty good in their understandings of the business,, Eric has many years in the industry and is well respected.. I back his opinion any day on this!!!!

Cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm the info legend well as you say we cant lose now surely it seems a winner thru and thru well done ADI


----------



## stewart3250

Evening  from Uk, Morning Aussies, well England got stuffed at soccer yesterday 2 v 0 against Croatia, useless, I guess our cricket boys will have to retain the Ashes.

Anyway back to Sugarloaf, I posted a few days earlier, I own about 30,000 EME shares we have a 6% stake in the project, EME price moving up well on the back of this however there will be some built in for Eagle but this in my opinion is 70 - 30 in our favour and been going for some time with drill problems.

I am impressed with the operators Texas Crude and looked at what was the best way of increasing my stake and I think Adelphi with a 20% stake is the best bet, our market is shut now however I can buy first thing in the morning so I will probably pick up between 30K to 50K to start with tomorrow, be interested to see the trades overnight and what you people think of the potential, I have read the posts but a little puzzled as to what you think your price may go to, I am not a trader so will not be selling until full potential except may top slice.

Shame they had to take down Couch, have we got any other information on progress other than normal updates, I was thinking in the states where it is being drilled.


----------



## nioka

stewart3250 said:
			
		

> Evening  from Uk, Morning Aussies, well England got stuffed at soccer yesterday 2 v 0 against Croatia, useless, I guess our cricket boys will have to retain the Ashes.
> 
> Anyway back to Sugarloaf, I posted a few days earlier, I own about 30,000 EME shares we have a 6% stake in the project, EME price moving up well on the back of this however there will be some built in for Eagle but this in my opinion is 70 - 30 in our favour and been going for some time with drill problems.
> 
> I am impressed with the operators Texas Crude and looked at what was the best way of increasing my stake and I think Adelphi with a 20% stake is the best bet, our market is shut now however I can buy first thing in the morning so I will probably pick up between 30K to 50K to start with tomorrow, be interested to see the trades overnight and what you people think of the potential, I have read the posts but a little puzzled as to what you think your price may go to, I am not a trader so will not be selling until full potential except may top slice.
> 
> Shame they had to take down Couch, have we got any other information on progress other than normal updates, I was thinking in the states where it is being drilled.



Sorry about the soccer and don't hold out
Too much hope in retaining the ashes either. I hope we all win with ADI. 
There is not much news on eagle here from the aussie partners of which I have an interest. Can you help there?


----------



## Agentm

Well you left your run late..

ADI is rising and AUT is also..  EKA is up 17% already!!!!

You can expect $6 out of Hosston,, and .60 and up for the secondaries...

As ARQ confirmed the secondaries,, and with couchy telling all about how well it went,, the share looks good value to me..

Hope you get a good price..

cheers


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> Well you left your run late..
> 
> ADI is rising and AUT is also..  EKA is up 17% already!!!!
> 
> You can expect $6 out of Hosston,, and .60 and up for the secondaries...
> 
> As ARQ confirmed the secondaries,, and with couchy telling all about how well it went,, the share looks good value to me..
> 
> Hope you get a good price..
> 
> cheers



The way things are going AUT may be a better buy than ADI. They have another interesting well going at the same time. I have bought more of both today.


----------



## stiger

nioka said:
			
		

> The way things are going AUT may be a better buy than ADI. They have another interesting well going at the same time. I have bought more of both today.



Interesting thought although i'm too greedy so all the way with ADI.dyor.


----------



## kevro

Hi Everyone, just found this article re Sugarloaf in Petroleum News. Nothing new I don't think but a good read.


Sugarloaf makes gas discovery: Aurora 

Monday, 2 October 2006

WIRELINE logs suggest the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, has encountered a 92 feet (28m) potential gas zone in a secondary target Cretaceous aged carbonate formation. 



Junior partner Aurora Oil & Gas told the Australian Stock Exchange that while the results were encouraging, there was a risk the zone may not flow at commercial rates. 

Its commercial significance will be determined by flow testing, which would only take place once the well has reached a planned total depth of 21,000 feet (6400m), expected in mid-November. 

On Friday, the well was at a depth of 14,480 feet (4413 metres), where a 9-5/8 inch intermediate casing was being run before drilling restarted in a 8-1/2inch diameter hole to the primary target, expected between 17,000 feet (5182 metres) and proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres).

There is a further secondary target in carbonate rocks between present depth and just above the primary target.

Assuming trouble-free drilling, the primary Hosston Formation target, which has the potential to contain about 800 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas, with upside potential of several trillion cubic feet, is expected to be reached in mid to late October. 

Seismic interpretation suggests the top of the Hosston will be intersected at a depth of 17,000ft. The potential also exists for several different sandstones to be developed over a gross 4000ft thickness.

Sugarloaf-1 partners are Texas Crude Energy (operator with a 41.5% stake), Aurora (20%), Adelphi Energy (20%), Eureka Energy (12.5%) and Empyrean Energy (6%).


----------



## kevro

Me again,
             anyone know how long it takes to process the wire-line logs?


----------



## stewart3250

*Nioka*, regarding EME they are a new company only listing last year, they currently have 3 projects ongoing, Glantal in Germany which after initial 4 drills proved no commercial gas and was plugged and abandoned, potential was up to 6.3tcf of gas they are currently looking at other targets on the area but nothing stated as yet, that failure caused a fall in the SP from about 90p to at one point 30p, speculation on Eagle and Sugarloaf now has the price at 63.5p as at last night.

You know as much as I do about Sugarloaf so no point going into further detail but I am confident about buying Adelphi because of Sugarloaf, will come back to that in a moment. Regarding Eagle in California EME have a 38.5% stake in this field which had 34M barrels and flowed 533 barrels in 1986 from the original well, they know there is oil there and the partners seem determined to get it out, they started in  Feb 06 drilling and they proved the field but could not get it to flow because of running sand, I am not technical but they had to acquire a work over rig which only arrived 3 weeks ago, they are now retrieving the perforation guns which failed to fire initially and will re enter with coiled tubing , perforate and hopefully will flow, basically they have had to clean out the hole from the previous crap and start the final phase again, they estimate 1000 barrels a day I would not be surprised to see 1500 to 2000 a day and this will be a company maker for EME. VPE of Australia are the operator and are not crisp like Texas Crude,they probably do not have the pulling power of Texas and hence the delays. EME share price hit 160p in March this year on Eagle and will go to 200p if it succeeds and then we have Sugarloaf and Glantal on top.

*Agentm*, sorry you felt you were not welcome on the iii board in UK, like anywhere there are some idiots, ignore them most of us serious investors in UK are ok and welcome yourselves and others opinion. I did not buy on Friday as I was too late when I rang for my broker to contact theirs in Aussie, I will buy Monday morning, I have a couple of points, you say Adelphi share price would only increase by 0.60c on lower levels but up to $6 Aus on Hosston, don't quite follow that on confirmation I would have thought it should go up significantly on commercial at lower levels, has Adelphi got rights at all levels.

I post below 2 analogies perhaps you or others could comment, I will only buy Adelphi or Eureka not both, thoughts, really interested in your valuation bearing in mind the commerciality initially at the lower levels, I know it is not certain yet but if it is 60c seems very low

market caps (undiluted)

Adelphi (20%interest) A$42m
Aurora (20% interest) A$62m
Eureka(12.5% interest) A$8m

x 0.40 for GBP mkt caps

for mine EKA is the best risk/reward play, could be a 30 or 40 bagger with 10-15% likelihood, that is a good bet. And with some downside insurance with very promising shallow targets.

Sage talks a good game but he should know that there is a 10-15% chance of success on the primary target. The market caps of the Australian players do not yet reflect this probability, nor the likelihood that the shallow secondary targets may already be economic. It would be awful to see him get burned shorting EME should there be a mere hint of hydrocarbons in the Sligo zone with Hosson to come. The real pressure is on the shorters because while probabilities favour them, the upside to Sugarloaf is enormous.

3250stewart,
Broker report ( May )gives highest leverage to ADI at 2599% & then EKA at 1347%.
Note permit area is described as below 2000m with upside of 4Tcf.
--------------------------------------------------------

Adelphi Energy Steps Up at SugarLoaf (ADI)
Adelphi has boosted its interest in the upcoming Sugarloaf exploration play to
20%, for which it will pay 25% of drilling costs. Sugarloaf is a deep gas play
targeting a mean 800Bcf of gas, with upside to 4Tcf at a depth below 5,200
metres in this 60-80km² prospect. Drilling is planned to commence in July, with
results known by early September.
Scout information from discoveries in the region indicates a possibility for gas and oil in shallow zones below 2,000m, extending into the Sugarloaf permit area, offering the potential for a secondary, shallow oil/gas play. With this information, Adelphi has gained 20% of both the shallow and deeper petroleum rights. This new shallow play,gives the Sugarloaf well multiple chances of success. If there is no deep gas, a small oil or gas accumulation would at least pay back the cost of a well.
Discovery of 800Bcf of gas and 10mmbbls of oil at Sugarloaf would be worth over $7 per share to Adelphi on a fully diluted basis. StockAnalysis ascribes a risk adjusted target valuation to the company of $1.23, based on its interests in Yemen, Sugarloaf and New Taiton, which is to be drilled later this year and where discovery of 40 bcf would be worth 45cps for Adelphi, leaving plenty of room for upward movement in share price, prior to spudding of the well, scheduled for July this year.
Of the three Australian partners in Sugarloaf, Adelphi offers the best leverage to success, with newcomer and Peter Allchurch vehicle, Eureka Mining making its first appearance on the US oil & gas scene.
Adelphi is recommended as a speculative buy with a short term target of 33 cents
and a medium term target price target of 55 cents

Sugarloaf Valuation Matrix
Company
Equity
WI
Current
Price cts
Discovery
Value cps
Leverage %
Risk adj
Value
cps
ADI 20.0% 27.5 715 2599% 89
AUT 20.0% 57.0 394 692% 49
EKA 12.5% 35.0 471 1347% 59
Target 800 Bcf
10 mmbbls
Value $ 3.6 A$/Mcf
$ 25.0 A$/bbl
Prob 12.5%


All IMHO, DYOR.  Would like some responses before Monday to then make a decision on quantity of Adelphi or Eureka, at present favour Adelphi but happy to be convinced either way, thanks all


----------



## Agentm

I always stuck with ADI due to my ARQ position.. 

ADI became involved in sugarloaf and i looked at AUT and EKA.. but never had the confidence in them.. My view is that once ADI had  secured more of the secondaries and then increased their stake in sugarloaf, i kept accumulating,, when they announced new tiaton, it was like the icing on the cake,, a low risk drill on a known gas play,, paying about .60 .. and as it was due to go about the same time as sugarloaf,, it semed to me the 4 plays in sugarloaf plus the 3 plays in new tiaton was good enough for me to invest,, Also new tiaton has a secondary independent target that they are able to drill on the same lease,, which makes tiaton an attractive safer play... look hard and you will find that info also..

The secondaries could be worth far more than .60 at sugarloaf,  i cant understand how they calculated it.. the P10 for sugarloaf is over 6TCF and the esimates for the prices are done on P50 @ 1TCF.. so the secondaries may be worth up to 3 or maybe 6 times the .60 to $1 they estimate.. and with oil in the play it is worth a lot more.. but no one is yet to value in the ol texas tea that has been founfdin sugarloaf so far..

So far the shares have gone up about .17  and the austin chalks are now known to be successful and yet to be confirmed... my knowlege of the deal was that the austin chalks were never calculated into their estimates,, if you look at the independent research done for EKA  on their prospectus, then you see that they had lots of data they were using was not able to be disclosed to the public.. and the austin chalks play was only mentioned in a very general way.. Also EKA wont allow the report to be listed on their website, you can only access it through the ASX website and track back the last 6 months of reports..

Lots about sugarloaf is kept very quiet,, all the successes are being kept quiet throughout.. the edward play may be tight as couchy says,  but wait for the final reports before believing that.. the austin chalks are brilliant and declared commercial subject to flow testing.. why the market cant understand that the shares are damn cheap is beyond me.. in the states the landowners have a substantial impact on the way news is released..  offshore it different,, but onshore the oil business is down right dirty, so the confusion is obviously keeping the big money away..

I cant advise which is better to invest in .. but i have reports saying ADI has great value due to new tiaton and yemen (which i believe is greatly understated- there are oil plays there miles in depth, not meters) and the reason ADi are in yemen is because of the ARQ connection.. so ADi are great value compared to their peers.. 5% of ADI belongs to the directors,, and ARQ holds 25%,, and the directors have large stakes in ARQ also..  if hosston hits ADI has a swag of cash on hand and ARQ has options on the find also.. so the value to ARQ and ADI is huge as they can handle large projects immediately with the team on hand..

sugarloaf has success written all over it now..  hope you get on board before hosston or sligo is announced as prices may go up..


----------



## nioka

Thanks Stewart3250. Some very usefull info on Eagle. Should be an interesting week.


----------



## Agentm

not much stock on the boards for AUT and EKA.. but plenty of exits from ADI today,, and heaps on the boards.. is there a reason???


----------



## kevro

Hi AgentM, only low volume with some wally flogging 2000 shares at .45 to make it look worse I think. Buyers have returned strongly now also.


----------



## Agentm

tomorrow we should be a fair way into sligo

i see by ARQ's annual report that they visited sugarloaf.. and the play is in the wilcox region..

cant be long before some news will have to filter out



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=4459&stc=1


----------



## stewart3250

*AgentM*

I just bought 25,000 Adelphi, could have bought more but I have a decent stake in eme as well, nearly sold a few eme to buy more Adelphi, it's an option, looking good from this end

My email is simstew@btinternet.com if you want to get in touch. :bayer:


----------



## stewart3250

Just to let all know, eme fell back 5p today due to Eagle having to be sidetracked, could not retrieve perferation guns so delayed again, VPE are bloody crap they want to change their details to landscape gardners, could do better myself   with a shoval.

Anyway thought I would let you know as price fall is nothing to do with Sugarloaf, infact high expectation on Sugarloaf now, I think price will build as we get closer to TD


----------



## Agentm

i saw the eme drop last night after they annouced the lack of success at eagle..

the ASX requires that you post all finds immediately, so i feel sligo may not have come up with any shows... TD is nearing, and the more i research the Hosston sands the more promising the 2D's are.. We are not privy to all the information available to the geologists running the show.. 

when PD Allchurch buys 5% of EKA a few months ago and you look at his credentials then you gotta back this horse as well..

but i still cant get this post by couchy out of my head

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success

We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.

Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.



The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.



The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.



The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’



The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.



This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’


----------



## HOMER J

Hi AgentM. enjoy reading your posts on this one. Agree with your view re sligo but the only encouraging thing there is that EKA/ADI did wait until their wednesday announcement to report the first gas shows. they wrote:

During the week, gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations.

so they didnt announce the shows immediately. anyway bring on Hosston   

cheers


----------



## Broadside

HOMER J said:
			
		

> Hi AgentM. enjoy reading your posts on this one. Agree with your view re sligo but the only encouraging thing there is that EKA/ADI did wait until their wednesday announcement to report the first gas shows. they wrote:
> 
> During the week, gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations.
> 
> so they didnt announce the shows immediately. anyway bring on Hosston
> 
> cheers




good point HomerJ they are always discrete and play their cards close to their chest...looks like some interest this morning in all the partners


----------



## stiger

Broadside said:
			
		

> good point HomerJ they are always discrete and play their cards close to their chest...looks like some interest this morning in all the partners



Scoured the net [mainly america] came up empty handed .Close to their chest is an understatement.regards


----------



## HOMER J

Broadside said:
			
		

> good point HomerJ they are always discrete and play their cards close to their chest...looks like some interest this morning in all the partners




Yes nice to see all three companies up a little today even if it is on low volume. Hopefully they continue to build on Hosston anticipation.

cheers


----------



## HOMER J

Eureka Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 17th October
2006 the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast
Basin in Texas, USA, was at a depth of 17,000 feet (5,183 metres) and
preparing to run 7 5/8 inch liner to be tied back into the 9 5/8 inch casing
set at 14,480 feet (4,415 metres).
Since the last report, the well drilled 2,520 feet (768 metres) of 8  ½ inch
diameter hole, mostly in a Cretaceous age limestone, which was a
secondary gas target in the well. In this interval, several methane-only gas
shows were obtained. In order to isolate the extensive interval of limestone
in anticipation of higher pressures in the Hosston Formation target, drilling
was halted at 17,000 feet (5,183 metres) to enable a 7 5/8 inch liner to be
run and cemented in place.
Wire-line logs have been run over the interval 14,480 to 17,000 feet (4,415
to 5,183 metres). and preliminary interpretation indicates the presence of a
few thin zones of interest. A decision as to whether any zone is sufficiently
attractive to warrant production testing will be made by the joint venture
once the well has reached total depth and final logs are available.
After the 7 5/8 inch casing has been run and set, drilling will resume
towards and into the primary Hosston Formation target, which is expected to
be reached within a few days. Based on seismic data and an offset well the
Hosston Formation is anticipated to consist of more than 4000 feet (1,220
metres) of inter-bedded sandstones and shales with the potential for
multiple prospective intervals.
The proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) is expected to be
reached during November assuming trouble-free drilling
ASX releases will continue be made routinely every Wednesday unless there
are material matters which require an earlier release.


----------



## Agentm

sligo has gas shows and only days from hosston..



watch the shares go.........


----------



## Agentm

down??????????????????????


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> down??????????????????????



A hic-cup ?  or some bad news?????????


----------



## Agentm

i am certain that there is something strange going on around here..


perhaps daytraders? hoping for a more positive slant on sligo then jumping off..


there are now 3 confirmed secondaries,, one said to be tight by couchy,, the austin chalks that had massive pressure and oil,, and then sligo being of the view that is can be looked at further..

now they put it all safely away behind the casing and go for the motherload,, with 3 zones in the bank for future development already.. i cant see how the well can be considered anything but a complete success..

they 2d's are obviously spot on,, the hydrocarbon shows on the siesmics are spot on.. so in my view there are hydrocarbons in hosston,, just a matter of at what pressure..

cant wait for the next good news.. i tell you what,,, if i was able to buy more today i would.. 

good luck to all who got the great prices of today...


----------



## Agentm

just finished my own presentation to myself


thought i would share it...


----------



## HOMER J

Hehe i like it!!!!

re presentations ADI just released their annual report. 

cheers


----------



## Agentm

if you read the report you will ntice 2 wells planned for sugarloaf in the commin 12 months!!!

yet the market doesnt get it..  

sugarloaf is a success


----------



## Agentm

do you think EKA is raising money just for sake of it? my view is that they will need to use it for upcoming shallow drills as described in the ADI annual report..



Following the recent capital raising of $7.5 million which increased


our current cash reserves to some $14 million, Adelphi is in a strong

financial position to fund our existing exploration programs and to

acquire additional short to medium term opportunities which meet

our objectives and strategy. We are very pleased with the strong

support from Adelphi’s existing shareholder base for this capital

raising which also led to the introduction of new institutional

shareholders to the Company’s register.
​

maybe when you see all those repeated statements about funding their existing exploration programs with capital raising ventures when thay already had more than enough in hand to do that then you start to read other things into it..




During the year, Adelphi increased its interest in the Sugarloaf


prospect from 12.5% to 20%. This increase in equity followed

encouraging drilling results in Late Cretaceous carbonates in an

adjoining lease ”” and raised the potential that the play could extend

across the Sugarloaf prospect area.


and it seem to have according to couchy......

they announce 1 to 3 drills now at sugarloaf!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
​



*​*​​​​

so i guess we better sell our shares now and abandon ship?

i did a bit of research on methane only gas,, i noticed that its often found slightly above large gas fields,, it seems to leach up and out into higher layers and get trapped.. amoungst many other things..

in some regions its uncommon not to have methane present in a trap above a very substantial gas field..

not many sleeps to go b4 we get confirmations on hosston.

perhaps next report?

cheers






​


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well ADI are very gaurded by what they say in there announcement I even think ARQ let on more than ADI but all seems positive looking forward too retirement outta this hot dusty mining game !


----------



## eternal

Info on Couch.
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/personalfinance/10/15/15oilinvest.html


----------



## Agentm

now thatsw an intereting report,,


confirms that couchy was a real cowboy and didnt understand the rules and was told to shut up


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:
			
		

> now thatsw an intereting report,,
> 
> 
> confirms that couchy was a real cowboy and didnt understand the rules and was told to shut up




he has been around long enough to understand the rules I would have thought, but he is a cowboy and was throwing a few scraps of information to his investors to keep them salivating.  I am sure there are a few types in Texas who sail close to the wind but having said that he would know oil and gas backwards and I don't discount his 29 September report one iota.  Adelphi's annual report tends to support his optimism.  The Sugarloaf partners are the ying to his yang, they are playing it super cool.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Would hope that within 2 weeks we would know wether we have hit the jackpot with the hosston formation.
Personally I am quitely confident and feel certain bits of info has been given too us in various forms too say things are going well eg Couch Report, Methane shows above main target, ARQ annual report, all have needed a certain degree of research but are open too anyone too see
Good Luck too all holders !


----------



## fflintoff

Info in the public domain:-


- 28m net gas pay. Not oil. Formal Announcement to the ASX ( 29 Sep )
- 12 hours later we had the famous Couch update ( subsequently pulled but still fully visible )
- Successful fund raising by EDA for post wildcat 1 ( 16 Oct )
- Economic find at Austin. ARQ Corporate presentation . ( 12 Oct )
- 2 Shallow wells included in ADI ´s 2007 drilling campaign. 2006 report ( 18 Oct )


----------



## Agentm

Also june 2006


AUT Director Graham Dowland owning 1,300,000 shares is appointed Chairman EKA june 2006 owning 880,000 shares there.. 

Alex Neuling AUT director also appointed to board,, similar shareholdings....

Also June 2006 

Allchurch, who is the indepenent geologist signing off all ASX releases for AUT becomes 6% major shareholder EKA 

Every which way you look at it, and the more you look, the sugarloaf well looks like a winner to everyone.. and it seems directors and their mates are certainly getting on board...

Even if hosston doesnt go.. the shares will have to gain .60 to ADI on the reserves at hand on P50 estimates.. and the way couchy and ADI are talking about further wells i sorta believe P50 is reasonable.. so why sell a share today that got a good 100% gain left to go? anyone buying now is doing well..

so within three weeks we will either be doubling our investment or retiring if hosston pays..

cheers


----------



## davepan

Hi Agentm,

I have been following your posts for the last couple of weeks now and really like your optimism regarding ADI & EKA.

I have also viewed some posts on other sites from posters on other forums who are not as confident as you are.

My question is - why will Sugarloaf be a success and why is there little downside risk at the current price ADI is at?

Considering the price was around 25 cents when the project was announced and ADI is now around 45 cents, it would appear to me that there is a good chance of losing 30%-50% if Sugarloaf comes up dry.

Is this a reasonable assumption?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Already proved the shallow target is not dry and support sp or even add too sp


----------



## Agentm

I look at the new tiaiton well which starts in a few weeks,, which also will give the price a boost.. 

I look at the broker reprts that say that ADI  prospects at hand with sugarloaf, yemen and new tiaton yet to go,,, and the sugarloaf prospect,,, they valued the stock at around $1,, but thought the price of .60 would be reached before sugarloaf struck the hosston target..

I notice that AUT has increased 12% since the 13th oct, and a further 5% today,, 

and ADI has remained flat..  

I view sugarloaf as a  success, the secondaries are confirmed as a success, which is reason enough to see the price stay where it is and its certainly great value as there are confirmed finds in the drill so far.. ADI has confirmed there are two shallow wells programmed for 2007.. I assume  that they are planning on doing that not for any other reason than to exploit what has been discovered..

So if you think the price will plummett then so be it,, i view the price as way below what its true value is,, i believe anyone selling over the past months are selling way below the potential value of the reserves estimated in all the acerage.. 

Anyone buying now at todays prices is definately getting great value on a well thats a success.. hosston maybe the primary,, but the secondaries value is far above the pittiful .45 cent value of today... the company has massive cash reserves and wonderful acerage.. why would it go down smack in the middle of two wells being drilled?


----------



## davepan

Thanks for the info Agentm,

I haven't seen that much info on the secondary targets, how much could they be worth to ADI based on results to datE?


----------



## Agentm

no reserves have been calculated....

ADI obviously see enough in it to schedule in 2 wells.  Calculate the cost of 2 wells and you then add whatever.. the reserves have to be significant.. MAybe at the P50 estimates, or maybe its more.. 

Couchy said 100 wells in his excitement before they censured him..

first time that cowboy gets to play with the big league and he totally stuffs up.. shows you that he was a good operator as a small time wildcatter.. but when it came to this he was letting out far too much..

the directors of ADI and all the investors have been on a tour of Sugarloaf,, they know the value but are playing their cards close as someone else has said,, 

look at the broker reports for ADI and ARQ and you will see estimates and price calculations... 

cheers


----------



## Sham

Bottom line is you either believe or you don't. The facts have been more then clearly outlined in previous posts on this forum. All is online for anyone to research for themselves and draw a conclusion. 
After the 28m of gas pay was announced in the austin chalks holding shares in any of the companies that are in sugarloaf was a no brainer for me.
Excellent chance of current share prices (at the very least) fully supported by austin chalks and with the big daddy hosston formation now drilling you get that possible upside for free.
Of cause it could all fall apart and end in tears but I highly doubt it.
I hold EKA

Sham


----------



## tarzanhey

Hi guys - I have just recently joined Aussie Stock Forums - Been a holder of EME since early this year.

A fellow poster found this on The Couch Oil Site - Thought you might find it interesting.

We have found quite a lot of stuff using a website mirror downloading software - which is free - let me know if you want it.

Fingers crossed for next week!!

Cheers Tarzan

posted by jumping jack flash

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 2 TCF potential
I spent several million dollars over the last few years to develop new Seismic Algorithms to enhance our discovery rate. We worked with much fanfare developing Wave Energy Absorption (WEA). Now with low fanfare (but still with great expense) we have been working on Porosity algorithms that are having more success than WEA. We have two successful wells on line from this process used in the Flour Bluff field.

Key Largo is the next research well. Sugar loaf is a research well… one target 800 BCF… with the deeper 20,000 ft target closure conservatively 1 TCF. We have closure over 16,000 acres. Texas Crude drilled 2 other successful wells using the technology which I did not participate in since I was originally a doubting Thomas. These two wells will have over 30 offset wells. So sometimes I make big mistakes.

This technology was started by Shell 20 years ago which much ado… yet with not much success. In the last few years several geophysics have used the technology in areas where they had at least 10 to 20 years of work station experience. Folks in England at Oxford and Cambridge have figured how to apply the porosity gradient to 2 D seismic. It takes 2 to 3 years to apply this to 2D seismic. We have been involved in funding this technology to 20,000 square miles of 2D seismic. It only takes 3 months to apply the technology to 3D seismic. We have thousands of squares of 2D seismic already shot within 50 miles of the Gulf Coast and in our coop library. Our initial research results are pure success with the drill bit. 

I hope our current 75% success rate will increase to 80% with this technology. I hope to lead the funding charge of several companies that will share this technology looking for larger reserves or elephant hunts as we have found with the Sugarloaf well. I try not to get excited when it comes to research… because we and affiliates have failed so many times before. Initial results on about 6 wells successful wells say we are finally…. maybe… on the right track.

The new seismic tool allows us to look for at least 20% porosity within about 6% points + or -. Some of the work station boys think they can get this down to a 4% or 2% variable. I say ..”show me”.. Each 2% points probably adds 1 BCF in reserves (with 100+ acreage drainage) per planned multi zone well. That is only a $10 million dollar reserve improvement per well. That will pay for each elephant hunt type well… alone… just with the porosity or reserve improvement. A poor result for a deep well would be 10 BCF or $100 million. 1 TCF possible … as in the Sugarloaf is $10,000 million or $10 Billion in reserves. 

then charlie says

20,000 Acre Four Way Closure – new porosity seismic technology – 15 years generating this prospect. Two Trillion (not Million… not Billion…. but Trillion) Cubic Feet of Gas Potential – I can hear the elephants stomping


----------



## Agentm

tarzan hey..

welcome... and what an entry!!!!

possibly one of the most staggering posts i have ever read..

dont take this the wrong way... is this from the land of the sugarplum fairies or for real????


i would love the post to be confirmed in some way,, happy to check out the software and varify whats been posted anytime

cheers


----------



## kevro

Hi Tarzan, I think Stigers in depth comments say it all. I cut & pasted this and posted on another site and the comments are much the same as here.I hope you don't mind.

Regards
Kevro


----------



## stewart3250

Morning all,

Saw what tarzen has posted on the eme board last night, it's just beginning to sink in now, would also confirm tarzen and Jumpin jack flash are regular and respected posters on the eme board.

All looks very good for Sugarloaf, so glad I bought those adelphi shares, good luck all.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> tarzan hey..
> 
> welcome... and what an entry!!!!
> 
> possibly one of the most staggering posts i have ever read..
> 
> dont take this the wrong way... is this from the land of the sugarplum fairies or for real????
> 
> 
> i would love the post to be confirmed in some way,, happy to check out the software and varify whats been posted anytime
> 
> cheers



If this turns out to be just "spin" the guy behind it (the spin) will probably be head hunted by George Bush as his publicity manager but there will be a lot of others after his actual head. I hope it is all good fact. I need results this week for the stock tipping comp. The anticipated result will still be appreciated any time. The suspense is killing me as the saying goes. Win or lose it an interesting exercise but I won't bet the house on it.


----------



## Dukey

Ohhh mannn!

Just caught up on a few posts - ADI just gets more interesting every day!! Would love to have some more Qual. info to add to the inferno you guys have posted so far - but alas - from me its just - 
Good Luck Y'all !!  imp: ; and ... and ... well... 
lets just wait and see...

& Stiger - heres some bananas for ya - and another UBF as well :bananasmi  :bounce:


----------



## tarzanhey

Hi - Just got back from a run/ hashing   in the lovely Oxfordshire countryside.

Glad you liked the post.

I originally emailed couch and managed to get send the logs and drill reports from Early September and then the following week was also sent the same - updated with a letter about the Gas shows - All this came from mails sent to Couch and the members of the 41% club.

the week after this, was the 100 well post on his site (which was removed and renamed /daily1.

Jumping Jack Flash was the one that refound it under the new name and there was some discussion about Couch probably finding it hard to keep quiet and possibly posting new info under a different file name not reachable from the Welcome page.

I asked a friend of mine (computer guy) if he knew of any software that could download all the pages of a website.

That is when I found out about the program.

Here is the link - http://www.httrack.com/

It is free to download and you can change and alter the search criteria.
Afterwards you can rerun to pick up any updates.

I gave this info to Jumping Jack Flash and he has now developed a serious Couch Fetish.

all Sugarloaf pages are gone but there is a lot to see.

Also if you just access http://www.couchoil.com/daily1.asp it still takes you to the old daily pages so you can look back and find lots of info about Sugar etc.



be careful though as you need a lot of disc space - I ran it on ADI and got more than 86 mgs

You cannot get password protected entry to a site but otherwise is is really good and you get a mirror site on you PC.

If anyone wants the logs and gas show stuff from Texas Crude that I received in mid to late last month then leave a email address.

Any exchange of info may help us all.

Good luck guys

Tarzan


----------



## tarzanhey

Background to previous post - yee haw!!


link on Couch site http://www.couchoil.com/daily/102405.htm

Sugarloaf Hosston Prospect – DeWitt County, Tx
20,000 Acre Four Way Closure – new porosity seismic technology – 15 years generating this prospect.
Two Trillion (not Million… not Billion…. but Trillion) Cubic Feet of Gas Potential – I can hear the elephants stomping

link on Couch site http://www.couchoil.com/daily/102005.htm

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 2 TCF potential
I spent several million dollars over the last few years to develop new Seismic Algorithms to enhance our discovery rate. We worked with much fanfare developing Wave Energy Absorption (WEA). Now with low fanfare (but still with great expense) we have been working on Porosity algorithms that are having more success than WEA. We have two successful wells on line from this process used in the Flour Bluff field.

Key Largo is the next research well. Sugar loaf is a research well… one target 800 BCF… with the deeper 20,000 ft target closure conservatively 1 TCF. We have closure over 16,000 acres. Texas Crude drilled 2 other successful wells using the technology which I did not participate in since I was originally a doubting Thomas. These two wells will have over 30 offset wells. So sometimes I make big mistakes.

This technology was started by Shell 20 years ago which much ado… yet with not much success. In the last few years several geophysics have used the technology in areas where they had at least 10 to 20 years of work station experience. Folks in England at Oxford and Cambridge have figured how to apply the porosity gradient to 2 D seismic. It takes 2 to 3 years to apply this to 2D seismic. We have been involved in funding this technology to 20,000 square miles of 2D seismic. It only takes 3 months to apply the technology to 3D seismic. We have thousands of squares of 2D seismic already shot within 50 miles of the Gulf Coast and in our coop library. Our initial research results are pure success with the drill bit. 

I hope our current 75% success rate will increase to 80% with this technology. I hope to lead the funding charge of several companies that will share this technology looking for larger reserves or elephant hunts as we have found with the Sugarloaf well. I try not to get excited when it comes to research… because we and affiliates have failed so many times before. Initial results on about 6 wells successful wells say we are finally…. maybe… on the right track.

The new seismic tool allows us to look for at least 20% porosity within about 6% points + or -. Some of the work station boys think they can get this down to a 4% or 2% variable. I say ..”show me”.. Each 2% points probably adds 1 BCF in reserves (with 100+ acreage drainage) per planned multi zone well. That is only a $10 million dollar reserve improvement per well. That will pay for each elephant hunt type well… alone… just with the porosity or reserve improvement. A poor result for a deep well would be 10 BCF or $100 million. 1 TCF possible … as in the Sugarloaf is $10,000 million or $10 Billion in reserves. We will try to drill at least one of the massive reserve deep target wells each quarter. We are trying to finish the South Deep Lake well now. Red Quill is on the front burner.

My initial review says their only 18 companies in Texas who are in financial position to tackle deep large reserve wells. We are one of the few. I will slowly encourage them to utilize these seismic tools.

Charles Couch
Couch Oil & Gas, Inc.
1919 Rhome St.
Dallas, Tx 75229
of (972) 444-0256
cell (214) 616-3832
fax (972) 444-0276


----------



## kevro

On On Tarzan. 

Great stuff. I am a Phuket Hasher from a while back. Ended up with the name of Pestered Poker and don't ask me how. Heading back in December / January to Thailand to awaken my Hashing life. Might not bother coming back now.

No wonder they wanted to silence Couchie, this stuff is gold.

On On
Pestered Poker


----------



## tarzanhey

Hi Kevro

A lot of my friends are going to Chang Mi tomorrow for the inter Hash - funny eh?

Yes there are a load of nutters about.

On On

fingers crossed for this week.


----------



## kevro

Hi Tarzan, got anything after 22/9/06. Couchies briefing archive stops at  this date and I am just a lot curious about the later results including Sligo.

Regards
Kevro


----------



## stereo21

link on Couch site http://www.couchoil.com/daily/102405.htm
link on Couch site http://www.couchoil.com/daily/102005.htm


Looks like these links are to two separate posts from October 2005. Have anything current?


----------



## tarzanhey

No, I have only the received mails from 22 sept. Wish I did have more recent stuff.

we keep trying.


----------



## Agentm

Its a quiet day for ADI so far... all volume and activity remains with AUT. they have steadily got over half a million trades per day in the past weeks and ADI seems to go all over the place..

anyone know how long it would take to run the liner and cement it in place?

i assume they would be completing it any time soon..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well its just a waiting game... may hear something this week after weekly update. Fingers crossed, everything has been said that there is to say.


----------



## nioka

stereo21 said:
			
		

> link on Couch site http://www.couchoil.com/daily/102405.htm
> link on Couch site http://www.couchoil.com/daily/102005.htm



I'm sold. Delete my remarks and thoughts of spin. I will wait for Wednesdays update but I have just bought a few more on the strength of the info.


----------



## Agentm

Melbourne cup pick!!!

i know one things a certanty..

we know who the winner of the melbourne cup is this year..

sugarloaf..

she stands 17,000 feet and will grow to about 21,000 feet tall and has a great pedigree..

her dam is Austin chalks and Sire is Sligo..

she may seem like an outsider,, but a great place bet in any case..

my gut instincts tell me she is training hard on the hosston sands and is galloping hard and in fine form..

i expect a podium finish.. she may even beat cudeco's time!!! 


cheers


----------



## kevro

Somethings up, we have lift off. Must be an ann coming and someone wants in


----------



## Agentm

may be a levelling of the playing fields.. if you draw up the 3 cousins,,AUT EKA and ADI you may see that ADI has by far suffered in the growth stakes over the past weeks..

If you in EKA for the rise then so be it,, they have only one prospect and no other acerage,, so they will have to go to the market wih more share offerings to pay for future well developments at sugarloaf.. so share price dilution there plus many options for directors there also!!!

ADI  put out a great teaser in their annual report  pencilling in 2 wells for sugarloaf,, they have spare cash everywhere.. so funding wells wont be a big concern and share value stays...  not sure on AUT if they have a massive amount of cash on hand,, perhaps they will be going to the market for cash also thus thinning their price out as well?? not sure..  

I still think ADi is the best valued share around when it comes to sugarloaf,, and if you look at new tiaton in the coming month or 60 days.. then you see value there as well,, new tiaiton has a very high probability of success and would easily tip into the equation at least .60 to the share price..  look at it this way.. hoston plus the three plays at tiaton gives you 4 plays in about 90 days.. the others only have one play left.. hosston..  and one has no cash on hand to fund huge well developments.. 

and thats not underestimating the impact of hosston, but i am saying that price aint everything,, management is a big deal in success,, good management gives you great confidence that your not going to be washing away share price value by not being ready for the next hurdle,, and ADI is primed and ready...   look at cudeco,, great price hike then bang,, management suddenly looks like their not on the ball,, and share values decline on lack of confidence..

i stay with ADI until tiaton in anycase,, then maybe even hang on till yemen.. who knows..  but i aint concerned about the immediate future of ADI  but i will find it intersting to see how and if EKA can step up and be a cashed up and ready partner.. the downside of hosston is not being in the position to play with the big boys and slowing things down.. if it happens that hosston is paying big then things have to happen fast,, texas crude certainly fits the bill, they can build anything and have an impeccable  reputation for delivery, couchy will have no problems finding investors.. ADI has cash and ARQ behind it.. have no clue what AUT has,, they are certainly interested in making money for theri directors and taking over other companies directorships... i hope as an ADI stakeholder that they dont spoil the show by not being able to stand the pace... 


bring on the hosston sands.................


----------



## Broadside

just as oil and gas juniors buy into prospects, do they ever sell their stakes on success, much like an investor would sometimes bank profits?  I am thinking aloud here, I wonder if any SL partners in the happy event SL is a boomer would sell out their stake to one of the big boys to develop (eg Exxon)...a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush etc.


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> may be a levelling of the playing fields.. if you draw up the 3 cousins,,AUT EKA and ADI you may see that ADI has by far suffered in the growth stakes over the past weeks..
> 
> If you in EKA for the rise then so be it,, they have only one prospect and no other acerage,, so they will have to go to the market wih more share offerings to pay for future well developments at sugarloaf.. so share price dilution there plus many options for directors there also!!!
> 
> ADI  put out a great teaser in their annual report  pencilling in 2 wells for sugarloaf,, they have spare cash everywhere.. so funding wells wont be a big concern and share value stays...  not sure on AUT if they have a massive amount of cash on hand,, perhaps they will be going to the market for cash also thus thinning their price out as well?? not sure..
> 
> I still think ADi is the best valued share around when it comes to sugarloaf,, and if you look at new tiaton in the coming month or 60 days.. then you see value there as well,, new tiaiton has a very high probability of success and would easily tip into the equation at least .60 to the share price..  look at it this way.. hoston plus the three plays at tiaton gives you 4 plays in about 90 days.. the others only have one play left.. hosston..  and one has no cash on hand to fund huge well developments..
> 
> and thats not underestimating the impact of hosston, but i am saying that price aint everything,, management is a big deal in success,, good management gives you great confidence that your not going to be washing away share price value by not being ready for the next hurdle,, and ADI is primed and ready...   look at cudeco,, great price hike then bang,, management suddenly looks like their not on the ball,, and share values decline on lack of confidence..
> 
> i stay with ADI until tiaton in anycase,, then maybe even hang on till yemen.. who knows..  but i aint concerned about the immediate future of ADI  but i will find it intersting to see how and if EKA can step up and be a cashed up and ready partner.. the downside of hosston is not being in the position to play with the big boys and slowing things down.. if it happens that hosston is paying big then things have to happen fast,, texas crude certainly fits the bill, they can build anything and have an impeccable  reputation for delivery, couchy will have no problems finding investors.. ADI has cash and ARQ behind it.. have no clue what AUT has,, they are certainly interested in making money for theri directors and taking over other companies directorships... i hope as an ADI stakeholder that they dont spoil the show by not being able to stand the pace...
> 
> 
> bring on the hosston sands.................





Hi = off to work now.

Hope you dont mind - I cut and posted this post for uk thread - to show some reasons for the difference in rises in partners sp.

thanks


----------



## Agentm

Broadside

i wonder what will happen in terms of some of the partners..

I think Texas crude is more than capable of developing the field,, all infistructure is on hand in any case, no pipelines to build..   they will need a lot of rigs to develop the shallow fields (disclaimer: should the secondaries test out to be productive...)

Having someone like Fluor on board as operator is a huge advantage,, they are the business, they are the ones that know the industry, and many would be lining up to be their contractors..  

attracting investors will no problems,,

i know the primary is such an exciting proposition,, its such a mega discovery, and should all thier research pay dividends , then we all have to take time out to adjust to the massive fortune down there..

but i always focus on the knowns... and we know the secondaries were reported, and we know they are keeping excessively quiet for only one reason,, acerage,,  and that would only mean that there is a lot more acerage to go after, which again says to me that the secondaries have been vastly underestimated in everyones calculations...

from what i have seen, the shareholders of the little 3.. AUT, EKA and ADI are in for a massive celebration in the not to distant future..  

its a bit like watching the tv and seeing the balls come up on the screen, seeing all your numbers come up and knowing you have already won the second division, but are waiting to see last ball drop and maybe you will win first as well..   and second divison is paying big..  

i would say the massive rig must be headin on down into those golden sands any time now...

cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm I agree with you totally but why is the sp dropping at this stage must be some mad sellers out there


----------



## kevro

I think it was just one mad seller who dropped it from .50c to 47c and a small sell at that.


----------



## Agentm

i love it..

imagine selling today!!  anyone getting those prices are doing well..

i think its just daytraders,, people who perhaps trade on fast rises on a stock,, get on then jump off and poacket a few bucks??

volumes are real low ..  yesterday the money came stroming in late..  usually the market has a breather,, then things run again..

i am thinkin about couchy and his excited ways,,the guy gets onto a massive find for the first time in a long while,, suddenly the values are like 100 times anything he's ever been on before,, gets real excited and shares the news..  lets the cat out of the bag and makes life hell for the others..

so now we get sanitised news,, and if you look hard,, and read between the lines you dont read words like dissappointing on any reports,, just the basics, enough to pass the legal desk before it goes to ASIC.. 

hey if it was a tiny field then it wouldnt matter,,  blow the trumpet.. but on acerage like this,, with whats down there,, these guys are playing it real cool.. 

cheers


----------



## HOMER J

Could be a few traders getting out of ADI/EKA/AUT and into GDN too.

I hold EKA.


----------



## Broadside

HOMER J said:
			
		

> Could be a few traders getting out of ADI/EKA/AUT and into GDN too.
> 
> I hold EKA.




Hi Homer I find it quite interesting that buying strength in EKAO remains so strong regardless of the performance of the heads, there has been some good accumulation the last few days, esp since Friday when it really started to cook.

I got into GDN at 30c I am pleased with that but I think Sugarloaf will be the main event.


----------



## HOMER J

Hi Broadside, yes ive noticed the same thing. it looks like someone is accumulating EKAO at 20c and not many people have been tempted to sell so far today despite the heads being down a little.

youve done well on GDN. i got a few today but not many.

note this was written today by exoil on hc re sugarloaf:

The latest is: all going to plan, casing run and drilling ahead, still in formation above Primary......

cheers


----------



## Broadside

yes I have been watching all the commentary on HC, a quiet day today compared to yesterday


----------



## nioka

Broadside said:
			
		

> I got into GDN at 30c I am pleased with that but I think Sugarloaf will be the main event.




GDN  How did I miss this one? Why wasn't I told as they say. I guess if I had I would have less of ADI. Can't win them all. Note that GDN posted results on the earlier gas flow and did not wait until the full well depth was reached.as has ADI and partners. Look what happened to their SP on that info alone. As the saying goes "you aint seen nuttin yet."


----------



## Broadside

nioka said:
			
		

> GDN  How did I miss this one? Why wasn't I told as they say. I guess if I had I would have less of ADI. Can't win them all. Note that GDN posted results on the earlier gas flow and did not wait until the full well depth was reached.as has ADI and partners. Look what happened to their SP on that info alone. As the saying goes "you aint seen nuttin yet."




I got lucky, some of those following ADI on HC were also in GDN for similar risk/reward so I took a very small punt...anyways I have taken some profits on it now and the rest is free carry...and there is no way I am selling one share in Sugarloaf until all is revealed...even should Hosston disappoint.  Yes it is a stark contrast to how GDN makes announcements and also how GDN seemed to leak good news, note its massive run up yesterday.  No disrespect to GDN or its prospects but I am very happy to be with these guys in Sugarloaf who play it conservatively and don't show their hand till they have the cold hard numbers.


----------



## Agentm

great buy broadside,, you do things different to me.. it takes a while before i move,, then i keep on movin.. 

i guess tomorrow will be the day,, hosston sands will be arriving and the report comes out.. 

sleep easy guys,, the stock may be jittery with the speculators all over it leaping in and out... but the large stakeholders are not moving an inch..

you wont a mass exodus on this stock.. theres too much activity in the secondaries for the movers and shakers to exit.. this ones a keeper in most peoples portfolio..


----------



## Agentm

i see GDN did a cudeco..

added a few extra numbers and released the report,, stocks go crazy..  then waited late late in the day add a correction..

cowboys!!!!

i tell you what,, if i bought into that stock today i would be real dirty..

i would take a scam like that real personal!!!

7.5 million shares yesterday.. 24 million today!!!!!

wow.. someone made a killing.. wonder who???


lets see what ASIC does here...


----------



## Broadside

as someone mentioned on another forum, with GDN most of the announcement was old news, and the new news wasn't crash hot because much of the primary target has been unsuccessful thus far...but that's daytraders for you....no wonder the SL partners are keeping tight lipped.


----------



## Agentm

but when you announce 300 feet of play in 3 primary zones then at the end of the day announce its 34 feet and correct them,,,,  then you playing the market.. thats dirty, real dirty...


look at the average shares pre 2 days ago,, then you see the big jump from 2 to 7 mill,, 
as the scammers get loaded,,  

today 24 mill trade... 

thats a cool $12 million changing hands on a stock thats been ramped by the announcement!!!!

as i said,, i someone scammed me today i would be on a flight to perth and doing a visit to their office,,, this ones a ripper..

if you look in the past you see they often make corrections on their announcements... interesting how they made the first one market sensitive then passed the second one as a normal run of the mill announcement..  

sorry chaps,, just ramped the primaries up 100% in three zones, and sorry to hear you got skinned today chaps.. 

cowboys!!!  

wouldnt wanna be in thier shoes tomorrow!!


----------



## Agentm

correction they ramped it from 34 to 300+  thats 1000%


----------



## mahmoodf

Correct. And that is why following the release of the corrected announcement, the sp jumped from around 52 cents to close at 56.5 cents.

Luckily I didn't sell otherwise I would have driven over to their offices and given them a piece of my mind! I live in Perth so can take out my frustrations.  ;-)

The next 7 days are going to be very interesting for GDN. Where the sp ends up, who knows.

What I do know is that punters need to be aware that GDN is a very speccy stock so therefore take extra care with your investment decision.

I do hold GDN stock.


----------



## stiger

Broadside said:
			
		

> yes I have been watching all the commentary on HC, a quiet day today compared to yesterday



That is because there was nothing to talk about.Wait til tomorrow.cheers


----------



## HOMER J

still a few days away from hosston   


Dear Sir/Madam
SUGARLOAF-1 WEEKLY PROGRESS REPORT
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 24th October 2006 the Sugarloaf-
1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, was drilling ahead
in 6 1/2 inch hole at a depth of 17,440 feet (5,317 metres).
Since the last report on 18th October 2006, 7 5/8 inch liner was tied back into the 9 5/8 inch
casing set at 14,480 feet (4,415 metres) and cemented to a depth of 17,000 feet (5,183
metres). Subsequently the well drilled 440 feet (134 metres) of Cretaceous aged limestone to
the present depth of 17,440 feet.
The upper part of the primary Hosston Formation target is expected to be reached within the
next few days. As previously advised, based on seismic data and an offset well the Hosston
Formation is anticipated to consist of more than 4,000 feet (1,220 metres) of inter-bedded
sandstones and shales with the potential for multiple prospective intervals.
The proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) is expected to be reached during
November assuming trouble-free drilling
ASX releases will continue be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material
matters which require an earlier release.
Participants in the Sugarloaf-1 well are:
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited 1 20.0%
Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al 2 41.5%
Eureka Energy Ltd 12.5%
Adelphi Energy Ltd 20.0%
Empyrean Energy plc 6.0%
1 Through its wholly-owned US subsidiary Sugarloaf Oil & Gas LP
2 Includes other US private companies / investors


----------



## Agentm

This is the way I see it..

initially there was a plan to drill an 8 1/2" drill bit from 14,200 to TD, with the plan to go clean through Sligo and then into the primary..

last week we get the news that the Sligo is methane only... ok  thats cool,, I like success just like anyone else on this stock. then they stop.. run wirelines and then case it in..

Hang on case it in????

This wasnt in the plan.. we were told 14,200 to TD 8 1/2" drill..

Ok so they dont announce any fan fare on sligo,, and if you know the territory then you know the reason..  so why case it in???  was there a stacks of pressure there??  too much to deal with??? need to case it in and make it easier to drill away???  

Questions questions questions?????


So whats with the casing in and suddenly drilling away with a 6 1/2" drill bit???

isnt this a little bit esscessive if Sligo wasnt anything other than just a mathane only gas show.. where is couchy when we needed him most???


My moneys on Sligo being commercial and having far to much pressure and needing to be cased in for obvious engineering reasons so as to allow successful further drilling away...

anyone follow my thoughts here??


cheers


----------



## maverick11

yeah the deeper they get the slower the drilling.  Geez, i'm getting impatient here   

Was hoping for a slice of good news today yet they hold off.  It was still a good ann though, as no indications of anything wrong.


----------



## maverick11

Agentm said:
			
		

> This is the way I see it..
> 
> initially there was a plan to drill an 8 1/2" drill bit from 14,200 to TD, with the plan to go clean through Sligo and then into the primary..
> 
> last week we get the news that the Sligo is methane only... ok  thats cool,, I like success just like anyone else on this stock. then they stop.. run wirelines and then case it in..
> 
> Hang on case it in????
> 
> This wasnt in the plan.. we were told 14,200 to TD 8 1/2" drill..
> 
> Ok so they dont announce any fan fare on sligo,, and if you know the territory then you know the reason..  so why case it in???  was there a stacks of pressure there??  too much to deal with??? need to case it in and make it easier to drill away???
> 
> Questions questions questions?????
> 
> 
> So whats with the casing in and suddenly drilling away with a 6 1/2" drill bit???
> 
> isnt this a little bit esscessive if Sligo wasnt anything other than just a mathane only gas show.. where is couchy when we needed him most???
> 
> 
> My moneys on Sligo being commercial and having far to much pressure and needing to be cased in for obvious engineering reasons so as to allow successful further drilling away...
> 
> anyone follow my thoughts here??
> 
> 
> cheers




Anyone keen to phone the MD and ask??  "we were told this, but you did something else, why?"


----------



## Agentm

sligo and the primary was never going to be wireline logged until after TD.. so why stop wireline and case in???


i still say if it looks like a duck,, quacks like a duck then its gotta be a duck..

(in the sense that a duck means gas under pressure, needing to case it in as its not gunna help us in further drilling!!)


----------



## Agentm

newest presentation released to myself today..


----------



## Broadside

isn't the reason for casing in they expect very different pressures b/w 2 zones? ie b/w Sligo and Hosston...I thought they indicated they were doing casing in last week's report?


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> This is the way I see it..
> 
> initially there was a plan to drill an 8 1/2" drill bit from 14,200 to TD, with the plan to go clean through Sligo and then into the primary..
> 
> last week we get the news that the Sligo is methane only... ok  thats cool,, I like success just like anyone else on this stock. then they stop.. run wirelines and then case it in..
> 
> Hang on case it in????
> 
> This wasnt in the plan.. we were told 14,200 to TD 8 1/2" drill..
> 
> Ok so they dont announce any fan fare on sligo,, and if you know the territory then you know the reason..  so why case it in???  was there a stacks of pressure there??  too much to deal with??? need to case it in and make it easier to drill away???
> 
> Questions questions questions?????
> 
> 
> So whats with the casing in and suddenly drilling away with a 6 1/2" drill bit???
> 
> isnt this a little bit esscessive if Sligo wasnt anything other than just a mathane only gas show.. where is couchy when we needed him most???
> 
> 
> My moneys on Sligo being commercial and having far to much pressure and needing to be cased in for obvious engineering reasons so as to allow successful further drilling away...
> 
> anyone follow my thoughts here??
> 
> 
> cheers





It always seems on this job that we can learn or gleen more from what is either not said or what is slipped in casually, that we werent expecting a therefore gives us clues to speculate on - There must be a reason not to tell us - must it mean that the reason is price sensitive (prob).

I think they are telling us the bare minimum that will legally keep us all informed by the rule book. 

I think your opinions make sense - and nothing is SET IN CONCRETE till the testing is done (pardon the pun). They are probably trying to secure additional acreage before they confirm anything for sure, until testing.

COME BACK COUCH ALL IS FORGIVEN


----------



## fflintoff

From a poster on EME on the ADVFN thread:-

Safiande - 25 Oct'06 - 07:15 - 14424 of 14425  edit


Agentm is correct. Original chart had final casing at 14500ft & then drilling all the way down to TD. That extra casing at the top of Hosston back thro ´Sligo might have been for the reasons given in last week ´s RNS but as a consequence they seem to have " lost " several days drilling time in that they only drilled 480ft in 7 days. Perhaps Sligo is more interesting than they are letting on ?


----------



## Agentm

yes, they reported it last week,, i didnt really check into it until re reading what they originally had planned.. 

today i begin to wonder why would you just case off gas shows??  and when announce pressure differences then its got to mean that sligo did have pretty good kick behind it..

if sligo wasnt kicking any significant pressure then they would have just kept on going..  they never planned to wireline  sligo until TD, and they talked about doing the primaries and sligo at the end together..

last week i was sorta staggered that the market saw the report as negative, and if you think why they had to change things around, its sorta obvious,, the pressure differences are the real issue.. 

now until now, i never thought that announcing that the pressure in a secondary had to be cased off would be a real downer to the market.. i maintain the austin chalks and sligo are bonifide successes,  and for them to successfully drill away and log accurately in the hosston sands they had to drill further until they had no pressure shows,, run a casing and seal it away so they can get on towards hosston sands..

the share price drops away on the news..

I was rechecking their original plans,, and i know they wanted to drill into the hosston sands with a big a drill bit as possible,, so casing off would have been a tough decision and only done if absolutely nessesary..

my feeling remains that the secondaries, both the austin and sligo, are complete winners,, the drill to hosston now goes ahead with a smaller drill bit, but without complications with pressure..

in my opinion the market has not factored in the value of the secondaries in any way.. and the stock is in my opinion exceptional value..


----------



## maverick11

i think the price dropped this afternoon because day traders were anticipating big news today.  For memory the same thing happened last week.  This stock has been going between .43 - .49 for the last few weeks on anticipation of a news release


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well been at work all day and have missed out on some telling questions ie casing the Sligo formation.
From my recolection of last weeks ann it didnt say Sligo was totally methane it also said there were a few gas shows which the board needed too consider as to wether futher drilling should be done too establish if commercial gas was present


----------



## Agentm

rmember the stuff Tarzan posted a while back,, i run the numbers all the time and sorta see what couchy was so excited about

on to the lovely piece of stuff couchy put out last october,, remembering that porosity is the key to volume of gas,, 

I hope our current 75% success rate will increase to 80% with this technology. I hope to lead the funding charge of several companies that will share this technology looking for larger reserves or elephant hunts as we have found with the Sugarloaf well. I try not to get excited when it comes to research… because we and affiliates have failed so many times before. Initial results on about 6 wells successful wells say we are finally…. maybe… on the right track.

The new seismic tool allows us to look for at least 20% porosity within about 6% points + or -. Some of the work station boys think they can get this down to a 4% or 2% variable. I say ..”show me”.. Each 2% points probably adds 1 BCF in reserves (with 100+ acreage drainage) per planned multi zone well. That is only a $10 million dollar reserve improvement per well. That will pay for each elephant hunt type well… alone… just with the porosity or reserve improvement. A poor result for a deep well would be 10 BCF or $100 million. 1 TCF possible … as in the Sugarloaf is $10,000 million or $10 Billion in reserves. 

then charlie says

20,000 Acre Four Way Closure – new porosity seismic technology – 15 years generating this prospect. Two Trillion (not Million… not Billion…. but Trillion) Cubic Feet of Gas Potential – I can hear the elephants stomping 


with what he says, i then look at his announcements regarding porosity of the Austin chalks (which i hear are reasonable accurate) and if you apply what he announced regarding the secondary find in the austin chalks  your maths has to be similar to his,,

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


Ok what part of couchys maths has he miscalculated?? 12% porosity in the austin chalks folks!!! thats 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!

the guy has spilled everything.. porosity, the works!!!  and the forums are still debating about whether sugarloaf is a success...

If you follow ole couchy and his research,, then you delve further into the eureka porspectus,, then you see 5% porosity is the weak side of the equation..  and they have some strong ideas about porosity before they drilled.. and confirmed high porosity via the now famous couch blunder. and unless i am mistaken.  *all calculations for ADI and EKA and EME and AUT regarding reserves were done on the 5% porosity equation*
my guess is that couchy's research was sound,, my feeling is that the porosity estimates were maybe understated in their preliminary research,, we may be in P30 territory or higher,

mr couch was absolutely astounded and beside himself, and going nuts about drilling away everywhere as the porosity was so high the payback on the well was hardly an issue,, the issue was well availability and capacity to deliver..

so far its only me  and couchy who are excited by the numbers.. everyone seems to disagree with the postings of couch and the results posted on the asx..

the market has just completely blindsided the info and also failed to see importance of the staggering success of the primary austin chalks based on couchys massive blunder..

they have a fair idea what the porosity of the hosston sands were WITH THE RESEARCH,  they obviously have been researching this prospect for some time  couchy says 15 years in the making.. all steps so far are successful,.. and if all the other zones were bang on.. then you have to start forgetting about stomping elephants and start how your gunna spend the dollars these guys are talking..

2TCF is what couchy predicts,, its is like 3 times what anyone has calculated in their figures..

this makes hosston a extremely attractive target..

 
am i seeing things wrong here or what???


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm you know I dont doubt you and your research I am with you all the way as for Sugarloaf being a sucess I have always had the feeling that ADI just go on the bare minimum on the estimates as is shown with the weekly update I just wont fully belive it till sp is $6.50 maybe because i have so much riding on ADI at the momment a bit nervous I must admit


----------



## Agentm

you should always be comfortable with your exposure to any stock..i'm not asking you to buy adi.. i hold the stock and am in for the longer haul now..
always do your own research,, check and check again..

i always wait a long time before i move on a stock, all my stocks have either doubled trebled or higher... i dont like saying that as a boast,, its the way i work,, my targets are pretty high,, so i follow teams of directors.. and successes,, its the way i work and until it stops working for me i stay with the formula..  

i rarely sell.. unless theres a buy out, takeover or change in management. and
all stock that i have to sell for those reasons are reinvested and top up the projects i follow.. 

i dont carry  large portfoilio as each time i find my target it gets bought out or something changes,,  but the ones that stay i follow through to the objective that i invest for.. 

remember always follow your own research and if your in doubt then its wise to get out..

cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Every investment has its own form of risk ADI is no different but it has positives too invest in.
Good management,Texas 1 of the worlds great oil and gas areas, backing of ARQ, New Taiton too fall back on,cash on hand, good buisness plan model there are many others especially as more about sugarloaf gets revealed these are some of the things to consider when investing


----------



## cicak_kupang

If, or when, sugarloaf comes good,what do people think how far the share price will go, then if new taiton shines through, how far will that push the price?  I've seen $6.50 mentioned?  Then what about ARQ, any thoughts on how it may affect their share price?


----------



## Agentm

remember porosity.. the deeper the tighter.. what you want is good numbers..

6TCF is the max sugarloaf can hold,, best numbers

800BCF is what they did their projections on for the Australian and UK figures,,

so when you hear $6.50 around the place then your seeing rock bottom 5% porosity figures.. and half of what is possible to extract gas from, 800BCF, remember that 5% is the lowest that the sands should be to be commercial,, so basically they are saying if half the hosston plays are productive then 800BCF is what they expect at 5% porosity.. and you get the magic $6.50 number.. 

give me that anyday!!!

The independent research in the US put the P50 at 1.5 TCF which would be about $12 staring point for the hosston sands.. upside is 6TCF WOW!!!!!!!!!

Lets get down to size..

USA imports 1/4 of its gas needs per annum.. 4.4TCF is shipped and piped in per year for the local domestic market.. 

Hosston sands could have 1.5 years of what the USA import needs per annum are... 

So the research figues in the us were halved for the sake of the conservative approach by the likes of ADI.. why?? because thats the way they work,, conservative and with a level head.. if you look at EKA and see how the AUT directors feathered their nests and got into sugarloaf big time by taking over a floundering and possibly dead in the water share that EKA was,, it had nothing on the go and no prospects in the near term.. AUT guys have given themselves heaps of shares and options in both AUT and EKA.. and have been workin this sugarloaf deal every which way to make some mega dollars on the hosston sands.. these guys obviously know something dont they??


I still like ADI for the fact they have a longer term plan,, so besides the massive fortune at stake on the sugarloaf well,, the future is even better with new tiaiton and yemen to add value..


so if the hosston sands are real tight,, and at the bottom end of the scale then you can expect $6.50... per share... sounds beautiful doesnt it?

then you look at what they know so far,, they know porosity in sligo and austin were way above expectations,, pressures were nuts in austin chalks,, cased off,, then sligo became a problem and also cased away.. dont discount edwards,, it was tight but that doesnt mean it wont be productive elsewhere on the acerage.. we dont know have access to the 2d's so we dont know where the plays are tight..

so who is prepared to say that these guys didnt know exactly what to expect??? and who can show me that they have not already got way higher numbers than anticipated in the austin chalks?? based on couchy, we have to assume he saw the logs, and we have to assume the porosity was what he said it was,, he has never retracted from the statement,,only responses i have seen is him saying he cant speak about anything anymore..

Austin chalks have to be worth at least $1.30 above the price today.. cant wait for the announcements after the well is completed.. hey, believe it or not,, I am happy with $1.30 - $2... but hang on,, i gotta say that the hosston sands are looking good.. even if they turn out being tight,,

today ADI is worth about $2, thats my calculations on austin and sligo.. and factoring in some value for the punt on hosston.. there is new tiaton which is about to spud in the coming month or so.. 

remember base price for hosston sands are $6.50,, US research values it rock bottom at $12.. on 1.5 TCF

I have never seen anything like this before,, couchys saying they have researched the siesmics and calculated porosity to a very small margin of error,, and then after drilling finding they have way understimated the porosity.. so if they are right about the hosston sands then our current value of $1.30 on top of todays price, can have $6.50 to $12 added to it.. 

liking the sound of that?? 

for me i can sleep knowing i have already multiplied my investment 6 fold, just have to wait a few weeks for the final results,,,

i my opinion i still say anyone buying today is absolutely getting the best values share on the boards.. 




and if your in ARQ,, $6.50 to ADi is about $1 ish to ARQ

cheers


----------



## Broadside

if the Couch report never appeared, given the high impact drilling they are doing right now - true company makers for all involved, I doubt they would be trading any lower than they are now - the market has completely discounted the Couch Oil report in my opinion....or ignored it.


----------



## Agentm

couchy was telling his investors last October 2 TCF


that was based on what they knew about hosston and edward and sligo..  Hosston and sligo were the main players in the deal with edwards kinda being a hopeful,,and still is..

back then the Austin chalks hadnt been closely looked at.. after a well nearby had big plays in the austin chalks they then became very interested in that play and were signing up landowners and by april ADI moved to 20% and signed up for the upper plays

sounds like the Austin chalks may have some mighty big numbers there,, obviosly lots of oil  and gas too.. but the oil makes me happy..

If you assume the 2 TCF target was their guess using the technology they used to second guess porosity,, then should they be right, as they have been on everything else thus far,, then $18 is the price to see the ADI shares at..

frightening isnt it?


----------



## HOMER J

From AUTs report today re the shallower gas shows:

At Sugarloaf, we are currently drilling our exciting exploration well to test the very large deep structure in the
Hosston formation. Based on wireline log results and a review of past wells in the area, we are confident that we
have identified a very interesting shallower cretaceous carbonate prospect for further evaluation as a project in
its own right. Results from the drilling of deeper secondary targets and the primary Hosston target will determine
future plans.

added a few ADI today to go with my EKA. bring on a trading halt : (please)


----------



## Broadside

Aurora annual report released this lunctime, Chairman's letter:  "based on wireline log results and a review of past wells in the area, we are confident that we have identified a very interesting shallower cretaceous carbonate prospect for further evaluation as a prospect in its own right...."


----------



## Agentm

so EKA released it annual report..


confirms they had no cash on hand to pay for the production and completion of the well and thought it "prudent" to go to the market and get some cash..  

so they have enough for that now!!!  

so they are announcing its going that far yet the market disbelieves the secondaries were tested, wirelined and assessed as a success, and as EKA is on the thin edge if cashflow,, they needed to get the cash to stay in the game..

i still maintain the secondaries are worth a stack more than a few cents the market has factored in so far into ADI  !!


----------



## tarzanhey

Hi guys - Damn exciting stuff.

EME in UK still drifting around at low levels.

Agent M if suppose ADI could be $12 - how much do you think that could make EME worth??

My fantasy for today please.

Good luck to all the Sugarbabies!!!


----------



## Sham

In the EKA annual report also note that in the drilling diagram they have the austin chalks and sligo formations as increased potential shallow targets.  I thought the others said that sligo was just methane? EKA are putting sligo and austin chalks in the same basket....


----------



## Agentm

hey tarzan...

things are pretty much the same here.. floating up and down..

wouldnt want to be the one selling stock today if say tomorrow they announce gas shows..

whats great is that all three have confirmed the secondaries in their annual reports,, EKA had to raise capital to make sugarloaf a production well..

Oh.. did the market understand it???   NO!!!

currently anyone buying it doing real well.. if i had another cent spare i would be buying more.. 

I know EME is doing bad,, its had so many dissappointments the investors are savaging it.. i thought i saw a post a few weeks back where a broker had spoken to director of EME for an hour or so.. saying they expected EME prices to go four pounds if hosston strikes.. sounds about right for the 4% diluted stake they have..  i have not come accross any reports from anyone re EME share price prospects over sugarloaf. 

Hope they get to announce any good news first in the UK,, you guys need a break!!

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

Sham.

Sligo is a legitimate gas prospect.. its commercial.. 

Austin has high oil and gas.. so its worth a fortune with the oil making it a fantastic field.. Sligo is what you call methane only,, still worth money and still commercial.. sometimes the say that methane only to explain it as no oil and gas...  just gas...

so Austin is oil and gas.. sligo gas only under massive pressure.. 

its all cased away and they are reaching the hosston sands as we speak.. so the announcements of any shows are any time soon...

anyone want to ring couchy and ask him on his cell  phone how its going?

cheers


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> hey tarzan...
> 
> things are pretty much the same here.. floating up and down..
> 
> wouldnt want to be the one selling stock today if say tomorrow they announce gas shows..
> 
> whats great is that all three have confirmed the secondaries in their annual reports,, EKA had to raise capital to make sugarloaf a production well..
> 
> Oh.. did the market understand it???   NO!!!
> 
> currently anyone buying it doing real well.. if i had another cent spare i would be buying more..
> 
> I know EME is doing bad,, its had so many dissappointments the investors are savaging it.. i thought i saw a post a few weeks back where a broker had spoken to director of EME for an hour or so.. saying they expected EME prices to go four pounds if hosston strikes.. sounds about right for the 4% diluted stake they have..  i have not come accross any reports from anyone re EME share price prospects over sugarloaf.
> 
> Hope they get to announce any good news first in the UK,, you guys need a break!!
> 
> Cheers





Part of me wants it all out and in the SP -----but part of me wants to keep it quiet for a few weeks - So i can raise some more cash to buy more.

As long as it comes good - That is the main thing.
Keep Cool


----------



## Sham

Thanks for the clarification agentm. I'm in EKA as Ive mentioned before and will be holding to hear the fat lady sing aka hosston   
Actually thinking of buying adi also for new taiton although I do have that one covered some what with through my holding in azz.
Cheers


----------



## maverick11

i spoke to couch, but he wouldn't disclose anything   

I made some nice profits on NXS today, so was thinking about dumping that into ADI as well.  Not sure whether to wait to see if it drifts down a little more or whether to wait for the announcement


----------



## Agentm

it was probably 3 in the morning maverick..

what you needed to do was to use an american accent and say you were a runningback for the dallas cowboys,, he would have spilled the beans!!


----------



## nioka

What is wrong with ADI share price? the talk on this forum alone should have it around $2 by now???????


----------



## Agentm

hey nokia.. 

the market is waiting for news of the next gas show so it can sell down the stock again..

currently the price goes up on the expectation of news, and goes down on:

confirmation of gas shows

going to market for money to pay for the well to become a production well 

confirmation by US partners of success and planning 100 production wells for the oil found in the Austin chalks..

i am waiting for the next announcement so i can buy more shares when the price plummets when they announce gas shows..

best plan i have had all year..


----------



## maverick11

I just don't like putting all my eggs in one basket, so a little "cautious/nervous".

Last weeks report said hosston was a few days away, and the same in todays announcment.  ...Patiently waiting


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> hey nokia..
> 
> the market is waiting for news of the next gas show so it can sell down the stock again..
> 
> currently the price goes up on the expectation of news, and goes down on:
> 
> confirmation of gas shows
> 
> going to market for money to pay for the well to become a production well
> 
> confirmation by US partners of success and planning 100 production wells for the oil found in the Austin chalks..
> 
> i am waiting for the next announcement so i can buy more shares when the price plummets when they announce gas shows..
> 
> best plan i have had all year..



My plan today didn't work. Maybe your plan is better. I put in an order for 20000 at 47c first thing and edged it up to 48.5 before I got them mid afternoon only to find they have just fallen to 46c. ?????????????


----------



## Broadside

I did the same thing, had bid at 47c and had to up to 48.5

rest assured in a month 1 and half cents here and there won't matter a whole lot, you'll either be smarting or smoking Cuban cigars, there won't be an in between


----------



## Agentm

when the 12% stake holders share is just a few cents away from a 20% stakeholder in the same prospect,,  

and ADI has millions in cash spare on the side line, new tiaton and yemen,

and EKA has nill

so who is paying too much for their piece if sugarloaf,,,???  anyone buying EKA on todays prices!!

still say ADI is the best value stock on the boards


----------



## nioka

Broadside said:
			
		

> I did the same thing, had bid at 47c and had to up to 48.5
> 
> rest assured in a month 1 and half cents here and there won't matter a whole lot, you'll either be smarting or smoking Cuban cigars, there won't be an in between



It's not just the money, it's the principle of the thing. . I hate to lose out in my judgement.


----------



## HOMER J

Still, EKA have a market cap of less than half that of ADI, i think thats why EKA have been climbing faster. at this point i do think ADI is better value tho.




			
				Agentm said:
			
		

> when the 12% stake holders share is just a few cents away from a 20% stakeholder in the same prospect,,
> 
> and ADI has millions in cash spare on the side line, new tiaton and yemen,
> 
> and EKA has nill
> 
> so who is paying too much for their piece if sugarloaf,,,???  anyone buying EKA on todays prices!!
> 
> still say ADI is the best value stock on the boards


----------



## Broadside

yes I think EKA was relatively undervalued before and has now caught up...now they are all undervalued   

and for pure Sugarloaf leverage EKAO is still a boomer, the buying around 20c has been relentless even when heads fluctuate between 33 and 38 cents (strike price is 20 cents)

hold EKAO EKA and ADI


----------



## Agentm

you may be in for some pleasant suprises when they announce they have to go to the market for cash for the new wells,,then the further dilution of shares when the directors announce their renumeration.. i gather they will be paid in shares, options above a fairly handsome salary once it kicks off..

maybe i am wrong,, but i wonder how eme and eka are going to fund the program that only ADI has had the guts to annouce,, they have 2 wells on the secondaries allready pencilled in.. I see EKA has no plans to participate and i didnt read AUT's annual report.. did they plan on drilling away on the secondaries also??

If it comes down to share value,, what looks grand now could be a whole lot different if you level the playing fields and count the cash they have in reserve..  i cant imagine the shareholders are going to fund the wells with cash from their pockets,, so i imagine they will be going to the market looking for the cash in share offerings.. 

It wont make any difference if hosston pays,,  but will make a huge difference if the secondaries is all that EKA has to develop..


----------



## HOMER J

Hey Broadside, yes holding the same as you. EKAO = great leverage but obviously highest risk.With ADI being the lowest. Did you qualify for the EKA share issue? (10000 shares at 22c) Talk about a bonus for holders if hosston pays off   

Anyone want to speculate on what would happen to trading if we were lucky enough to have gas shows in the upper part of hosston? 
would it be likely they would announce gas shows and let the market resume trading while drlling to total depth? would be a wild ride. Or would it be possible to put ADI/EKA/AUT into a trading halt until they knew exactly what was there?

cheers


----------



## fflintoff

Have a nose around

http://www.wellreports.com/

User Name:    wr_102006
Password:        trialreports



Scroll down to Karnes county for Sugarloaf Hosston #1

http://www.wellreports.com/Sample_Rig.htm



TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, 	SUGAR LOAF #1	PATTERSON-STX	30	WILDCAT	DRLG
42-255-31544 (O/G) DRILL (36)(37) 718 FNL 310 FWL, SEC 259, J WARE SUR., A-292 12 SW KENEDY
API-Type of Well-Legal-Location-Direction from town

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/index.html


----------



## Agentm

EKA has so far got 47,701,000 shares and 41,500,000 options exp 31 mar 08


ADI 95,558,000 shares  17,300,000 options unlisted..


in may the leverage per share for hosston for ADI was 619 cents per share
the EKA leverage was 408 cents per share

now i dont know how many more shares and options were put on the market after may by eka,, i figure its a fair swag..  

if in may there was a $2 better return on sugaloaf please tell me why in october the EKA share is better value on the sugarloaf prospect..

if its better i will sell today and switch in a moment..  but if someone can explain where the 30%  better outcome per share went since may this year i am all ears...  

i am very interested in the numbers here,, the market values EKA way up at the moment,, what i want to know is what are the numbers??

cheers


----------



## fflintoff

Broker gives % leverage lead to ADI at 1996% over EKA at 1633%

ADI 20.0%  31 619  1996%  88
AUT 20.0% 50 342   683%    49
EKA 12.5% 25 408   1633%   58

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/corporate/documents/Strachan Research Report May 2006.pdf


----------



## itchy

Why all the interest in ADI, if hosston does not come in they will drop like a bag full of bricks in a river. Dont mean to offend anyone i just dont really understand all the hype.


----------



## Agentm

hows that itchy??

what do you base that on?


----------



## HOMER J

Hi Agentm. Agree with you that at the moment ADI is the better value simply because EKA has run harder. back when i was buying EKA at 20c it had a market cap of something like 11m with options included and ADI if i remember right was in the low 40s with a market cap of 4X EKA. the options back then were the best leverage at around 8-9c. Now EKAs market cap is closer to 20m. They have 39.7m heads (as announced on the 25th) and 41.5m options plus are issueing upto 11.9m shares in the recently announced issue. the issue will raise upto 1.36m + another possible 1.25m with 570 holders entitled to 10000 shares each. 

note the percentage gains predicted in ADIs report we taken with ADI at 31c and EKA at 25c. But back when i was buying EKAO were the highest risk/reward in my view at around 8c. Things are different now obviously. So the question is why is ADI lagging? it seems like the potential upside isnt being factored in at all....

cheers


----------



## itchy

Well i just dont think their post hosston future looks very exiting thats all. their other prospects dont seem too hold much, and i believe there are better players out there doing similar things with better management and more sound prospects. For example STX, COI,AZZ have a look at these, good solid management with US exploration experience.

Obviously i would love to have bought when they were in the 20c range, a nice little gain! i just think if Hosston does not come in you will see them half, with nothing exiting to offer in the future. once again just my opinion and i am wrong more often then i am right!


----------



## Agentm

itchy 

what makes you think hosston isnt a success already??

2 secondaries are discovered and ADI is drilling 2 wells on that alone.. couchy wants to drill 100..


----------



## fflintoff

*Several E Mails a week from C Couch Esq*

Several E Mails a week from C Couch Esq


“In my opinion, the ‘Unique Value Proposition (UVP), of Couch Oil & Gas, is based on the company’s ongoing willingness, and unique ability to differentiate itself from other oil & gas companies in a number of ways. Specifically, Couch Oil & Gas has an ‘intense desire’ to understand and has a ‘proven track record’ of adapting to the needs of present day oil & gas investors. Couch demonstrates, and accomplishes this chief goal, and primary aim, in a variety of ways. They only invest on a ‘heads-up’, or ‘cost’ basis; with ‘Industry Partners’. These are the ‘professional insiders’; who are on the ‘cutting-edge’ of technology. The most successful ‘industry players’ only invest in the key, and proven to be, best producing area’s of the United States. Their chief, and frankly only goal, is to find, and recover, large reserves of both oil & gas. These are the guys making the big money, and the same ones who have the best track records… The two states they primarily focus in are Texas, and Louisiana. The biggest and best producers of oil & gas in the united states makes an investment on behalf of itself, and its private investors, with these top industry players. This is the unique selling proposition it offers to the private investor, who wouldn’t get this chance, to directly invest alongside the most successful of the industry players.

These ‘big boys’, or insiders usually don’t like private investors in their deals…the reason is because they need to know unequivocally, that a firm commitment is going to be made to participate, and fund the myriad of costs associated with development of their most lucrative prospects. Big, complex deals require a consistent availability of funding. Whimsical investors are the bane of industry players. Private investors typically want to be able to hit and run, that is, invest when they want to, and move-on to something else, whenever they choose. This doesn’t work in a complex, expensive, and most likely long term development plan associated with the ‘best oil & gas deals’. So, the answer is, you need to be associated with a company that plans to ‘stay the course’, and make the necessary commitment in time and money, to be accepted, and trusted as a ‘industry player’, who is going to live-up to their end of an expensive, and complex development effort.

Packaging multiple well drilling and production programs greatly minifies risk; but this is only a part of the equation for insuring that you make investors and yourself money. Couch Oil & Gas now has the expertise to play a primary role in the generation, analysis, and selection of potential prospects to develop. Couch Oil & Gas has earned the respect of other industry partners they participate with in development opportunities. It becomes a matter of trust…if a deal being selected doesn’t pass muster, however, the trust erodes, and the relationship is usually doomed from the start. This isn’t typical expertise for a promoter, offering most ‘promoted deals’, or those deals offered by, ‘sales type promoters’ working with operators. Usually, the operator finds the prospects, and then may offer some ownership interests for sale. They in essence, often have, a simply “take it or leave it philosophy”…or in other words, “my way, or the hiway”. This ‘attitude’, which is still very prevalent in the oil & gas business today, doesn’t endear you to very many investors. Many oil companies of all sizes, still have this philosophy, that is, that new investors can always be found…this short sighted attitude, doesn’t bode well for building a company, and it’s assets, or for making money for the investors who brought you to the dance.

Couch Oil & Gas is structuring and offering very unique oil & gas programs of investment, that have not been seen in the past. Their philosophy involves structuring investment opportunities that take in to account the three primary motivations, and goals of modern day private investors. These three primary goals are: 1) the desire to avoid losing their initial capital 2) begin getting returns quickly…within six months of making an oil & gas investment, and 3) being able to quantify the multiples on their money, have some idea in the beginning, based on solid, and cutting-edge technological advances, and engineering expertise, that can accurately determine the ultimate return on their investments. 

These are some of the ideas I would consider that make Couch Oil & Gas unique, and particularly well suited for dealing with private investors who want to invest with a private oil & gas company over the mid and long term And build a portfolio of excellent oil & gas investments in the process.



Positively and successfully yours, 



Bill Porter


P.S. I did not get into the technical aspects of how Couch Oil & Gas and specifically how its industry partners achieve the goals achieved in their development efforts. These technical details and methods are continuously discussed in ongoing email updates by thecompany. Charles Couch provides regular email updates, usually several times per week. Hope this helps you, if you have additional questions write them down, and give me a call at 972.841.4468.”


----------



## Agentm

look like "over phrased" and "complete spin" to me..  couchy and his management are hard and fast spruikers of their wares..

Like the news article from last week, re couchy having been pulled up for trading illegally without licences to do so in two states..  they went from being lucky on a single well, to becoming an investment business, with long and low returns to investors, to suddenly being in on a fairly staggering field.

I saw that MEC resources have announced a deal with Bounty to tackle "biggus" off the NSW coast on lease PEP 11.   1.2 TCF potential.. 

I heard it on the radio as well this morning.. They are excited about the prospect and are prepared to throw 22 million at it..!!!

I prefer onshore investments in oil.. The cost of rigs and development is massive.. the reasons why sugarloaf is as attractive as it is revolves around the fact its just a case of find and plug it in to the network... no building pipelines,, no expensive offshore rigs,, just simple and easy..

i know 1.2 TCF may be exciting to investors,, but up to 6 TCF at sugarloaf is doing it for me..

cant wait for the announcements.. i  guess when it happens there will have to e an immediate trading halt.. 

cheers


----------



## Broadside

HOMER J said:
			
		

> Hi Agentm. Agree with you that at the moment ADI is the better value simply because EKA has run harder. back when i was buying EKA at 20c it had a market cap of something like 11m with options included and ADI if i remember right was in the low 40s with a market cap of 4X EKA. the options back then were the best leverage at around 8-9c. Now EKAs market cap is closer to 20m. They have 39.7m heads (as announced on the 25th) and 41.5m options plus are issueing upto 11.9m shares in the recently announced issue. the issue will raise upto 1.36m + another possible 1.25m with 570 holders entitled to 10000 shares each.
> 
> note the percentage gains predicted in ADIs report we taken with ADI at 31c and EKA at 25c. But back when i was buying EKAO were the highest risk/reward in my view at around 8c. Things are different now obviously. So the question is why is ADI lagging? it seems like the potential upside isnt being factored in at all....
> 
> cheers




Hi Homer / Agent M well I think Agent M has a valid point EKA will need to raise some funds should the secondary targets need to be developed...of course that would be a very good problem to have because the secondaries would need to be economic to justify that expenditure....the options conversions will raise a lot of money in the future but they don't expire till 2008.  What we are discussing is which company has the biggest upside to Sugarloaf success, like Homer I went into EKAOs sub 10 cents when no one was particularly interested in them, and sub 10 cents they represent huge upside (and risk) to SL regardless of future capital raisings.  Maybe they aren't as good value at 20 cents but obviously still are very highly leveraged which is why they are being so strongly accumulated even at these levels.


----------



## HOMER J

Hi guys, nice to see all three trading up today. Interesting to note that AUT could be about to go thru a triple top (closing prices) at 60c. could run nicely if it does.


----------



## Agentm

different volumes at different times for all stocks.. 

gdn is amazing to watch.. like a yo-yo

ADI has had 3 steady days of 3% falls  and is a little up today so far,, volumes already at the daily average for the week..


currently its only back to where it was 4 days ago..

if we get some growth today from now we may be starting to catch up to the other stocks on this sugarbaby.

anyone want to punt that some profits from gdn are being thrown into the equation??


----------



## maverick11

0.56 yeah baby!  News imminent or daytraders?  I noticed this stock picks up on the hope of news release then sells down in the last 10mins of trading, like yesterday. I want to buy more today... looking for a good buy in price???


----------



## Agentm

cant see anyone selling eka under .44  !!!!  what the???

all three stocks are now being hit hard...


this is unprecidented... volumes are nuts and prices are staggering


in terms of guessing,, i am guessing theres something happeing out there..


----------



## HOMER J

Hehe i was just thinking the same thing Agentm! could be GDN traders switching and people getting set before the weekend, or could it be, dare i say it, a leak?    they all ran like this just before they announced gas in the upper zone. maybe im dreaming but hey, its fun watching  :


----------



## maverick11

EKA is settling back down now.  Geez, buy more ADI now or hope for an afternoon sell off...presuming the news is not due today that is


----------



## Broadside

I fancy it is hot money looking for the next quick buck, it is nice to be set already.

I hope it is a leak though


----------



## davepan

It looks like something is going on.....................

ADI and EKA up nearly 20% each, volume through the roof.

No announcement.

Fingers crossed they go into pre-open soon and there is an announcement............


----------



## Agentm

two hours of massive volumes,,

will the ASX start looking?


----------



## davepan

I was in Oxiana a couple of weeks ago when there was all the takeover speculation, they went into preopen twice and I nearly had two heart attacks!!

If ADI goes into preopen today I think I will have another one!


----------



## Broadside

personally I think it is just GDN profits being reutilised

incidentally someone suggested GDN is now being stalked by Woodside, now that is hilarious but full marks for imagination

GDN talk about a ramper's wet dream


----------



## Agentm

so far we have only made up the 3 days of hard losses...


AUT and EKA have made gains over the last three days and are doing fine again today..


oxiana is a great stock to stay in for.. last takeover speculation was not answered by oxiana, unlike the previous ones,, i would have thought that is good enough reason to think they are close to something..


----------



## Sham

Jumped in and bought a few adi this morning to keep my eka holding company. Always nice to see the price jump after buying but in my opinion these shares are still a good price. Would not be surprised to see   another jump in price towards close. With no trading till monday whats the chance that they will have a hit in the hosston formation and go into a trading holt monday morning ? The chance maybe small but its there and if that happens boy oh boy strap yourselves in for a rocket ride.


----------



## Agentm

i was reading the AUT annual report this morning,, noticed the directors there are thick with shares with plenty to come,, they obviously are facing shareholder pressure re going to market and raising capital,, seems they have opted to burrow money for some project in the US instead,, somehow dont think they will be giving any EKA shareholders any rest.


At last we have caught up to 3 days ago,,  

do you think the investors today are stayers?  or likely to flee this afternoon or monday?

anyone want the winner for the cox plate and the melbourne cup?


----------



## Agentm

48 hours of nice drilling ahead.

not long before the markets close.  

When you look at where the main primary is you think its got to be drilled in coming 4 days or so..


----------



## Broadside

the ADI quarterly doesn't seem to reveal anything we don't already know from a cursory glance at the Sugarloaf section


----------



## Agentm

the al nilam field is the biggest winner for 2008 for ADI  its real close to block 7,, and its a massive oil column.. kilometers not meters!!!  they are real excited to be close to it and i bet the 2d's will be focusing at that play being replicated in some area near by in block 7..

having 14 million in the bank sorta makes it a happy place to be..

buying into new areas also on the cards..

new taiton starts in the coming 30 days...

and in case anyone missed it,, the primary is about to be drilled this weekend..


----------



## maverick11

I have been umming and arring all day wanting to buy more.  God damn it!!

Was hoping for a sell off before close like yesterday, but no.... 28% up for a close of $0.59!!!  Talk about market confidence!!   

Will see what Monday brings, and hopefully buy more then too


----------



## Sham

Well Im gonna go lay down now, 22.9% up on adi today and 80% up on my eka from where I bought it ....and my entry wasn't that good. Roll on monday.


----------



## stoivey

Agentm said:
			
		

> This is the way I see it..
> initially there was a plan to drill an 8 1/2" drill bit from 14,200 to TD, with the plan to go clean through Sligo and then into the primary..
> last week we get the news that the Sligo is methane only... ok  thats cool,, I like success just like anyone else on this stock. then they stop.. run wirelines and then case it in..
> Hang on case it in????
> This wasnt in the plan.. we were told 14,200 to TD 8 1/2" drill..




just reading some info on the couch site, it does seem common practice to use smaller and smaller drill bits as they get deeper, this being an extremely deep well it could well be standard practice to change drill bits at that depth



> 8.	At about 3,000’ the drill string is raised and 14” surface casing is lowered into the hole and cemented in place. About 24 hours is allowed for the cement to set.   It becomes a permanent part of the well.  Casing is thick steel pipe which comes in various diameters.  The purpose of casing is to keep the sides of the hole from caving in.  It also keeps drilling fluids from coming up the hole and leaking into surface formations which may contain groundwater.  Removing the drill string is a time consuming process because, to do so, it has to be taken apart.  This is done 3 or 4 sections at a time, depending on the height of the rig.  They raise the drillstring, take off 4 sections (120’ of pipe) stack it off to the side, raise it again, remove 4 more sections etc.  At 12,000’, there will be 400 sections of drill pipe in the hole so it takes 100 operations to take it all apart.






> 9.	The drill string is then put back together and drilling continues again with a 12” drill bit.






> 10.	By the time the drill bit gets to around 8,000’ drilling has slowed down to a rate of about 500’ per day.






> 11.	At around 8,500 the drill string is raised.  A wireline log is run (see more detail below) and intermediate casing, about 10” in diameter, is installed, cemented in place, and allowed to set for 24 hours.  An entire 8,500 length of casing is inserted inside the surface casing.  It goes from the top of the hole to the bottom.  The bottom section of casing is temporarily plugged with cement.  When drilling starts again, this cement will be drilled out by the new bit.






> 12.	A smaller bit, about 8” in diameter is installed on the drill string and drilling recommences.  From here to the bottom of the hole, the rate of penetration may slow to 200’ to 300’ per day.






> 13.	At the target depth (around 11,500 to 12,000’) drilling ends.  The drill string is raised and the remainder of the well is logged (see below) and analyzed.  If it is determined that gas can be produced profitably, production casing (between 4.5 and 5.5” in diameter) is installed and cemented in place.  An entire 12,000’ length of casing is installed reaching from the surface to the bottom of the hole (inside the intermediate casing).  The well is “shut-in,” that is, capped to keep anything from escaping at the top of the well.


----------



## stoivey

heres from the faq on couchoil



> Casing is heavy, large-diameter pipe that is placed into the hole to give the well more structural integrity  than would be achieved by a  simple hole in the ground.  The hole is drilled in sections of decreasing diameter.    For instance, in a 12,000’ well, the first section of hole may  be drilled to around 3,000 with a bit of around 13  ½” in diameter.  Surface casing of around 12”  in diameter will be lowered to the bottom of the hole. (Casing also comes in 40’ lengths like drill pipe so it is screwed together section by section).  Surface casing is usually run to a depth below the lowest known ground water.  The next section of the hole will be drilled with a smaller bit of around 9  ½”.  At the desired depth, intermediate casing of around 8  ½” in diameter will be lowered into the hole.  This second casing string will extend from the top of the hole, through the intermediate casing, all the way to the bottom.  The next section will be drilled to total depth with a 7” drill bit.  5  ½” production casing will then be set extending from the top to the bottom of the hole.  Inserting and cementing casing into the hole is sometimes referred to as “running  pipe.”  In a deeper well, each of the casing sizes described above may be much larger.  For instance, in an 18,000' well the surface casing might be around 16" in diameter


----------



## Agentm

well i can say that being on this ride today was fun..

some have opted to abandon ship,, and some have joined the ride..

still deciding which bottle to buy tonight,,  looking at purchasing from bottles behind the glass, you know,, the ones that everyone looks at and thinks who can afford to buy that!!

stiovy

the drill bit and casing senario was in my opinion unplanned, and had sligo not been what it was, then they would have kept going. they have already announced in their weekly report two weks ago that they were casing in due to the pressure problem..



i have always maintained my stance with sugarloaf, and i maintain its secondaries are commercial. if hosston takes off then so be it,, but the value of the secondaries are still way higher than the current price,, the stock is still a rock bottom bargain..

enjoy the weekend everyone.. i am kickin back and chillin out..


----------



## Dukey

Mannnn............I'm just hangin around - watching, waiting reading what you guys have to say... plenty of great info - thanks peoples.
Very nice finish today on 59c... More confidence building stuff!
What can you say ... roll on Monday.  

Noticed one thing in the quarterly report, but just a small thing I think.   I'm sure I originally read they reported the Hosston sands zone was expected at around 17000 feet, but the QR's now says 17500 feet. Am I mistaken??  
Are they just updating simply cause they were at 17440 at that time and hadn't hit it yet.  
How accurate are the siesmic depth estimates anyway?? It's a bloody long way down - so there must be some give/take.

Anyway - nothing to worry about I believe...

Secondaries looking better all the time as snippets leak out.
Hosston to come.....
Taiton after that...
Yemen after that...

Yeehahhhhhhhhhh!!! imp:
-------------------
Whats your prefered tipple of red AgentMan.
Not much Oz wine here in Japan. I miss my Oomoo!!


----------



## stoivey

i do believe they factor in an error rate of +/- 500 ft in their estimates


----------



## Agentm

tonight a shiraz... barossa of course!!  

champagne to start..

they expect multi zones,, hosston sands from what i have researched can have like 280 feet zones then shale then 80 the nothing then 100 again... that type of affair..  its not going to one zone,, could start immediately or could be days before it starts..

it could be days before a zone is intersected.. but the hosston play is right now being drilled..

its time to clear out and enjoy...

cheers


----------



## Dukey

Ta ... Avagoodweegend mate!!

Maybe Monday will start with the long awaited HALT !!!


----------



## fflintoff

Broadside said:
			
		

> the ADI quarterly doesn't seem to reveal anything we don't already know from a cursory glance at the Sugarloaf section




Broady,
Are there two differences namely :-

- Seismic had top of Hossy at 17000ft. Now confirmed formally at 17500ft.
- Sligo announcement on 18 Oct was "..a few thin zones of interest ". ADI quarterly report states " Gas shows over several thin intervals ". I also prefer several to a few, thin or otherwise.
Agentm is convinced that the extra casing at Sligo is to hold back the gas pressure.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Wow Just got back from work and what a day 59c close seem too be opening up with there information regarding secondary targets New Taiton almost ready too go this babe is gunna be big


----------



## tarzanhey

good day for you guys yesterday - finally started to wake up in the UK as well on EME. Into the Hosston by now? 
I would think so, bet old Couchie is going off like a bunking bronco.

looking forward to next week (big time)

good luck all!

Tarzan


----------



## kevro

On On Tarz, looking forward to Monday and the hint of a leak would be a good start to the working week. If I remember correctly there is only 13000 shares on offer with ADI at close of trade Friday and if there is a leak before opening imagine what they might be worth.

Oh well, back to my beer (no champas just yet), Good luck to everyone and hope its a good week.


----------



## djones

I bought into EKA last week, so hoping for some very good news on ADI and EKA this week, the sooner the better for my nerves!


----------



## Dukey

OK peoples !! opening with a bullet - up 9 c to 68c in Oz - after only 15 odd minutes tradding!!
Could be a nice day....
Damn...: I want more
I want more ...


----------



## djones

Surely the workers working on sugarloaf are first to know whether a large amount of gas has been found, wonder if theyre on there phones to their broker, their mums broker, their friends brokers as soon as they realise...


----------



## Agentm

all three stocks are as usual rising in unity..

GDN placed their shares in a trading halt this morning  2 days out of reaching their primary target,, makes you wonder whats happening there,, perhaps they have reevaluated their spruiking on the secondaries and decided thay need to stop the massive price rise as they have been releasing all information they can to the market and caused a lot of scruitiny from the ASX re their proceedures and conjectures..

things should cool off soon..

i thought any rise above 25% like on friday needed to have a please explain attached to it??  this stock has risen above that and seem to not require an explanation.. lets see what the day brings..


----------



## Dukey

Wouldn't surprise me - in fact, with this one, I'd almost expect it - though maybe they did that a while back anyway.

ADI seems to have steadied - volume hasn't moved much in the last 10 min - still around 454,455 traded according to comsec. Maybe there were a few biggish orders in over the weekend.
 any ideas??


----------



## Dukey

But my other thought is - if they arrived at Hosston gas over the weekend - as many have expected - why don't we have a halt??


----------



## nioka

Profit takers have moved in. If they are in the know then we are in trouble. If it is just profit taking as insurance it is not a problem. Time will tell. Surely the asx is asking questions.


----------



## maverick11

nioka said:
			
		

> Profit takers have moved in. If they are in the know then we are in trouble. If it is just profit taking as insurance it is not a problem. Time will tell. Surely the asx is asking questions.




yes, pressure will be on to release an announcement you would think


----------



## djones

nioka said:
			
		

> Profit takers have moved in. If they are in the know then we are in trouble.




Im worried now!


----------



## Sham

Take a deep breath guys and relax. Just remember the hosston formation is 4000ft. If they reached the beginning of the formation say saturday then we will have a number of days of drilling to get through it to total depth. Also keep in mind that the companies which are in sugarloaf are not ramping it like others with high return wells. I think there is no need for panic at this time.


----------



## Broadside

djones said:
			
		

> Im worried now!




This was 48c on Friday you have to expect some people to take profits in the 60s.

I don't think the buying or selling is "informed" I think it is people positioning themselves for primary target, perhaps some GDN money and the hot money is turning its attention to high impact drilling.

Can't blame those who are risk averse cashing in some shares in high 60s.


----------



## Sham

Also you guys might like to read back through the thread and just remember whats happened already at sugarloaf. The sp is going to be volatile no doubt about that but at the end of this drilling sugarloaf is like 99% certain to be a commercial well. Now that should underpin the sp where it is right now and very very possibly much higher.
My opinion only of course but stay calm and look at the facts not what the traders are doing for a quick buck.


----------



## nioka

Broadside said:
			
		

> this was 48c on Friday you have to expect some people to take profits in the 60s
> 
> I don't think the buying or selling is "informed" I think it is people positioning themselves for primary target, perhaps some GDN money and the hot money is turning its attention to high impact drilling
> 
> can't blame those who are risk averse cashing in some shares in high 60s



exactly. there is no great volume at the lower end of todays prices.


----------



## Dukey

Yeah - seems to be some support around 63-65c. I wouldn't worry too much.

What was our latest drilling rate estimate again??


----------



## Agentm

with the stock a half its real value for the secondaries.. and new tiaiton about to run, which can add about .60 to the price also, the value of the secondaries and the prospect of success at new tiaiton is a long way short of real value..

The ASX is watching, and does contact the company secretary by phone, then if things dont sound right they send an official please explain..

if you dont see an official please explain, then the ASX wouldnt feel the market needs to be notified and that would mean the ASX isnt feeling that the market is backing the wrong horse so to speak. So no please explain after a 28% increase would mean the phone call made would have satisfied the ASX and they wouldnt have any concerns on the situation.. They have to protect the market from false runs and scams so they monitor and talk to company secretaries the moment things jump..

if ADI thought the price rise was unwarranted and running too far or out of control they would be the first to announce a trading halt and the first to stop the speculation..

there could be all sorts of reasons for delays.. busted drill bits, problems with circulation,, its rare for a well to be drilled problem free, and at these depths its a long shot to back it in for a trouble free drill..


the hosston sands have multiple plays all the way through,, reching the sands doesnt mean they immediately reach a play...

they will announce everything they need as and when its nessessary

still in my books a damn good valued stock,, perhaps about half its correct value at this point..

yes i hold this stock and no way am i selling!!


----------



## maverick11

Just replacing the drill bit alone requires them to widthdraw all the rods which would take a lonnngggg time on such a deep hole.  I have worked on drill rigs and it's a slow, nightmare of a job.


----------



## HOMER J

EKA in trading halt but ADI and AUT arent.


----------



## djones

HOMER J said:
			
		

> EKA in trading halt but ADI and AUT arent.




Im into EKA so my fate is sealed. I have a very good feeling about this though... If only EKA had some cash reserves!


----------



## Dukey

Is there anything else interesting going on at EKA besides sugarloaf?


----------



## djones

Dukey said:
			
		

> Is there anything else interesting going on at EKA besides sugarloaf?




They don't have any other projects, so if the Hosston is a miss, the stock could easily halve in value or worse.


----------



## djones

Agentm said:
			
		

> GDN placed their shares in a trading halt this morning  2 days out of reaching their primary target,, makes you wonder whats happening there,, perhaps they have reevaluated their spruiking on the secondaries and decided thay need to stop the massive price rise as they have been releasing all information they can to the market and caused a lot of scruitiny from the ASX re their proceedures and conjectures..




What do GDN have to do with ADI and EKA?


----------



## Agentm

my feeling is it isnt the primary..  or all  three would be in a halt..

my feeling is that they are going on another fund raising venture..


----------



## Broadside

the announcement refers to a new project


----------



## Sham

EKA swallowed up another company to get a piece of sugarloaf, maybe just maybe someone is going to do the same to eka .......
Whatever happens it will have no impact on the sugarloaf result although if we are looking at another capital raising that may well considerably dilute things for eka holders. Another way to look at is if eka are raising funds then why ? 100 step out wells targeting the austin chalk ?
Guess we will know soon enough


----------



## unixspice

Broadside said:
			
		

> the announcement refers to a new project




What's the new project ?


----------



## Broadside

the company hasn't disclosed that information yet


----------



## stereo21

Broadside said:
			
		

> the company hasn't disclosed that information yet




I didn't think the company refered to a new project in its trading halt? How certain are you that its a new project?


----------



## nioka

stereo21 said:
			
		

> I didn't think the company refered to a new project in its trading halt? How certain are you that its a new project?



It certainly did


----------



## stereo21

nioka said:
			
		

> It certainly did




...so it did.  Interesting!


----------



## HOMER J

here it is:


ASX RELEASE 30 OCTOBER 2006
Eureka acquires interest in Bismil Oil Prospect in Turkey
First well to spud in early November
Key Points
• Eureka has acquired rights to earn a 20% interest in two exploration Licenses
in South Eastern Turkey
• First of two turnkey farm in wells, the ‘Koyunlu-1’, to spud in early November
2006 and is expected to reach target depth within 2 weeks
• First exploration well located 17 kilometres south and up-dip of the giant West
Raman oil field
• Koyunlu-1 exploration well to drill to 1,380 metres and will test the eastern
portion of a structure with similarities to the Raman field structures.
• The target reservoirs are Cretaceous age carbonates of the Mardin Group,
the same reservoirs which host oil in the Raman fields and numerous other oil
fields in the region.
• The structure has the potential to host recoverable reserves of 31 million
barrels (P50) or 204 million barrels (P90), if oil is present and commercially
extractable.
• Eureka has also acquired an option to increase its interest in the Licences to
45%
Prospect Background
The two Licences, covering an area of approximately 500 square kilometres are
located in South Eastern Turkey in the major oil producing region of that country.
Koyunlu-1 is located about 17 kilometres south of the West Raman oil field (original
oil in place 1.5 billion barrels) and about 40 kilometres south of the Selmo oil field
(original oil in place 500 million barrels), presently operated by an ASX listed
Australian company.
The Koyunlu-1 target is located in a regionally well established oil system and good
oil shows were obtained in the nearest well, which was out of closure some 8
kilometres to the north east. Oil generation, migration and reservoir risk is considered
to be low.
Although the Koyunlu-1 well is up-dip from the West Raman field, structural integrity
is the largest risk due to the wider than optimum seismic grid. Licence conditions
require a well to be drilled in November so it is not possible to acquire further seismic
before the due drilling date. Subject to results from the Koyunlu-1 well, it is intended
to fill in the seismic grid prior to drilling the second farmin well.
The oil recovered from the Raman fields is relatively heavy (13-18 API gravity) and
any oil at Koyunlu -1 is likely to be similar. This oil is readily saleable at a small
discount to standard Middle Eastern Crude prices.
The area has good oil and gas infrastructure with the regional oil refining and
handling centre at Batman, 24 kilometres north of the well location.
Farm-in Terms to Acquire 20% interest & Option to acquire a further 25%
interest
Eureka will earn a 20% interest in the two adjoining Exploration Licences from
Turkish company, ARAR Petrol Gaz AUPAS (registered license holder and operator
of the Licences) by funding 20% of past exploration costs and 30% of the Koyunlu-1
well dry-hole cost on a turnkey basis. Eureka’s total cost including drilling of the
Koyunlu Well – 1 will be approximately A$800,000.
Eureka’s share of the second farm-in well costs are capped at the lesser of
US$525,000 or 30% of dry-hole cost.
Following drilling of the Koyunlu-1 well, additional seismic may be required to
determine the exact drilling location for the second farm-in well. Eureka’s share of
seismic costs will be 20%.
Eureka may withdraw from the farm-in agreement and licenses at any time following
the drilling of the Koyunlu-1 well.
Eureka has an option to increase its interest in the Licences to 45% by purchasing an
additional 25% of the Licences for US$ 2,000,000. Eureka will pay an option fee of
US$191,000 and the option will expire 3 weeks after the second well is drilled. The
option would only be exercised in the event of the discovery of commercial oil in
either or both wells and gives Eureka significant leverage to drilling success.
Mr Graham Dowland, Chairman of Eureka said “the Board is very pleased that
Eureka has acquired the opportunity to participate in the drilling of such a significant
oil play at a relatively low entry cost and protected from well cost over-runs by the
turnkey contract. The project fits Eureka’s strategy of targeting significant sized
international projects heavily leveraged to success.
For further information please contact Graham Dowland or Alex
Neuling on 08 9440 2640.
Information contained in this report concerning the background to the Sugarloaf
Project, was compiled from material provided by Texas Crude Energy Inc and
reviewed by P D Allchurch, BSc, FAIMM, MPESA, who has had 35 years experience
in the practice of geology and more than 5 years experience in petroleum geology.
Mr Allchurch has consented to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on this
information in the form and context in which it appears.


----------



## Broadside

thanks Homer looks interesting and is just around the corner, November is going to be a massive month in the history of Eureka


----------



## HOMER J

Hope your right Broadside. this should help support the share price if hosston doesnt come off imo. Lets hope ADI flys in november too   

cheers


----------



## Agentm

EKA gets a project or 2 in turkey.. How does the board of AUT and EKA split the decision as to which company gets the projects?? both are smallcaps.. ADI and ARQ have guidelines, and risk evaluations.. makes you wonder..??


I guess EKA goes to the market now and gets more capital for the turkey project,, no doubt they wont be spending the cash they raised for the Sugarloaf shortfall..

drilling this deep is complicated and slow.. a  6 1/2 drill bit is going to be so much slower than before.. 

this is best described as a exploritory well,,, no ones been there before and where exactly the formations start and end is still a lot of guess work and conjecture.. they could be 500+ feet out on their estimates and today could still be only on top of the hosston play.. 

wednesday gives us the update and until then anything found will be reported..

lets sit back and enjoy the commencement of the hosston play.. theres many thousands of feet of plays to be explored and drilled.. and for those on board there is the security of he secondaries being successful, and a fully funded well to go within 30 days at new tiaton.. .60 and $1.50 ish


AUT and EKA got please explains and ADI has been unscathed, management seems to be on top of things and capable in my books.. 

cheers


----------



## Dukey

Agentm - nice calm post...

Just wondering - can you fill me in ? - why would a smaller drill bit mean slower drilling? I have no experience with this kind of drilling, but my intuition would expect a little faster if anything.  I have worked with some much shallower soil rigs (scientific sampling) - and I seem to remember smaller hole sizes were faster in that case. Though i could be mistaken.
No doubt the set-up for these rigs is quite different.

Roll on 'sugarloaf train'... Roll on.


----------



## nioka

HOMER J said:
			
		

> here it is:
> 
> 
> ASX RELEASE 30 OCTOBER 2006
> Eureka
> Information contained in this report concerning the background to the Sugarloaf
> Project, was compiled from material provided by Texas Crude Energy Inc and
> reviewed by P D Allchurch, BSc, FAIMM, MPESA, who has had 35 years experience
> in the practice of geology and more than 5 years experience in petroleum geology.
> Mr Allchurch has consented to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on this
> information in the form and context in which it appears.



I could not find "information on the sugarloaf "in the report. Was is censored???????


----------



## Agentm

i think its just a simple case of cut and paste haste..


----------



## cicak_kupang

For ADI, in terms of its sugarloaf, new taiton and yemen on its drill programe, and with so much god damn potential, i can picture another sp graph similar to MCC when it took  of a few years ago.  This is exciting times to be involved with ADI.  With in a short time we will all know about the success of sugarloaf, then its on to New taiton.  I have found myself doing a bit of day dreaming at work lately.....and enjoying the ride.
Hope there will be a bit more of a sell off as people take profits, hope to be able to take advantage when/ if it does, this may happen on the other side of wednesday, post weekly drilling report if its just "stock standard", somw may get itchy feet and bail....?


----------



## maverick11

Dukey said:
			
		

> Agentm - nice calm post...
> 
> Just wondering - can you fill me in ? - why would a smaller drill bit mean slower drilling? I have no experience with this kind of drilling, but my intuition would expect a little faster if anything.  I have worked with some much shallower soil rigs (scientific sampling) - and I seem to remember smaller hole sizes were faster in that case. Though i could be mistaken.
> No doubt the set-up for these rigs is quite different.
> 
> Roll on 'sugarloaf train'... Roll on.




It's the depth more than the drill bit diameter.  Usually, yes, wider drill bits are slower, but at these depth you have to drill slowly no matter what size.  Mainly because the shaft is being turned from the surface then thousands of metres of rods must flex/turn before the actual drill bit turns down the toe of the hole.  The smaller drill bits/rods are also more susceptible to this flex and drill deviation under extreme weight and pressure.


----------



## HOMER J

yes i think its just standard text the company has used on sugarloaf and didnt realise they used it in this announcement. i re checked and am pretty sure i posted the entire document.

cheers


----------



## Dukey

maverick11 said:
			
		

> It's the depth more than the drill bit diameter.  Usually, yes, wider drill bits are slower, but at these depth you have to drill slowly no matter what size.  Mainly because the shaft is being turned from the surface then thousands of metres of rods must flex/turn before the actual drill bit turns down the toe of the hole.  The smaller drill bits/rods are also more susceptible to this flex and drill deviation under extreme weight and pressure.




Thanks Maverick. You come up with the good-oil once again!!
And interesting at that. Can't say i miss working with the soil rigs. Not that much fun until you reach the camp and the cold beers. (IMHO).


----------



## maverick11

ADI taking a bit of a hammering all of a sudden??


----------



## Sham

Certainly looks that way, wondering if this could be a top up opportunity....Just remember plenty of hosston formation to drill yet and a gas hit will see the sugarloaf triplets in the money big time.


----------



## maverick11

No one really willing to sell.... up she goes again   : 

Seems small pissy orders and volume are moving the SP around a fair bit.  Bring on the ANN!!!


----------



## Agentm

nice one maverick.. 

its a different feel out there now..

ADI used to be such a quiet and sedate little stock.. now the daytraders are in the picture its very flighty..

I look at the GDN announcements and think wow.. if only the texas boys would announce like that.. its a different state and definately a different approach,, in texas you tell everyone nothing,, as anyone can come in and spoil the show..

up till now we have had not one announcement of gas shows in the secondaries on anything other than in the weekly..

somehow i feel the same approach will be done in this coming report.. 
if they were to change their approach then it would be a shock to me as i feel their intent is to keep everything low key through out the entire drill.. many land owners who have not signed up may not and probably wont until the drill is completed.. so while they are being cohersed i image the approach taken so far is pretty well what we will get through out...  

i would love the fan fare that gdn has done with their secondary shows, but so far the form of these guys is to say less and less every day..

i am only in it for the secondaries in any case.. and the new tiaton well is part of my plan.. so whether hosston is a success or not i already am confident we are way short of real value of the austin and sligo plays..

i see yemen is now the despised terrorist place on the planet.. a new nation to vilify for the media...  lets hope they dont offend too much as oilsearch and adi and ARQ have some important work there ahead..


----------



## maverick11

arghh!! what is going on?  Talk about stressful!


----------



## nioka

maverick11 said:
			
		

> arghh!! what is going on?  Talk about stressful!



Look at it this way 125,000 sold in one sale at 12.15. It means that someone was prepared to BUY that many in one hit. This is what happens when day traders have stop loss orders in. Nothing to do with sugarloaf.


----------



## Agentm

there is volume out there as the price falls... so plenty are willing to get in on the price,, maybe daytraders losing their nerves as investors arrive in?

so its all about what your in for,, if  your in for sugarloaf then you wouldnt sell,, if your in for small gains and small profits i guess you sell whenever you feel like it and for whatever reasons you are in it for...


----------



## Sham

Better get use to it cause I would say another few weeks to drill the hosston all going ok and then some time after that for the result from production testing.  I see it as a chance to take advantage of the impatient actually.....


----------



## ALFguy

So would you consider this a good buy at these prices?

Given the recent interest, and the way the sp has moved over the last few days I tend to think so but intra day chart looks like it's got further to drop. *note, I aint no chartist   

May wait a little longer.


----------



## nioka

ALFguy said:
			
		

> So would you consider this a good buy at these prices?
> 
> Given the recent interest, and the way the sp has moved over the last few days I tend to think so but intra day chart looks like it's got further to drop. *note, I aint no chartist
> 
> May wait a little longer.



This is no time to think charts. This is not a trend it is asudden change. There is a difference.


----------



## HOMER J

AUTs activity statement dated the 30th (yesterday) but just released today says:

The primary Hosston target is expected to be reached within the next few days and the total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) in mid November.

so at the time of writing they probably werent even into hosston yet...
i guess well find out more tomorrow.....


----------



## Agentm

i have to join in the conspiracy theory here...

AUT said in last weeks report it was just above the hosston sands..

yesterday it makes the same statement..

either the seismics were wrong and the hosston sands are deeper

or the drilling has been complicated and delayed with unforseen events..

or they are just cracking themselves up watching us make assumptions about whats going on and decided to say they hadnt reached the primary yet!!

think about why they are posting these reports.. there is no reason to other than to semi advise the market about whats going on.. and to save the share price from too big a collapse.. ADI did theirs to save themselves on friday re the please explain...  EKA has done theirs,, and today AUT has put it out there, and made it very clear that they have not reached the primaries!!!!!

i kinda hope those selling today arent kicking themselves,  if you punting they are in the primaries, getting nervous and selling then maybe you need to study the reports a little before you bail.. looks like hosston is still to come...

i am curious about the delay if AUT is reporting correctly


----------



## HOMER J

yes the are probably just playing mindgames and enjoying it    ADI back to 60c. wonder if well see buying in the morning especially if GDN has a well needed retrace....


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> i have to join in the conspiracy theory here...
> 
> AUT said in last weeks report it was just above the hosston sands..
> 
> yesterday it makes the same statement..
> 
> either the seismics were wrong and the hosston sands are deeper
> 
> or the drilling has been complicated and delayed with unforseen events..
> 
> or they are just cracking themselves up watching us make assumptions about whats going on and decided to say they hadnt reached the primary yet!!
> 
> 
> 
> i am curious about the delay if AUT is reporting correctly



The report talks about sugarloaf as at October 25th.


----------



## Agentm

the statement on page 1  is backed up on page 3



*SUGARLOAF PROSPECT, GULF COAST, TEXAS (AUT Working Interest 20%) 

*[font=Arial,Arial]Aurora Oil & Gas has a 20% interest in the large Sugarloaf Prospect, which has the potential to host several trillion cubic feet of gas. 

The Sugarloaf Prospect is a world class exploration prospect. It is a robust four-way dip closure covering about 80 square kilometres at 5,200m depth, which makes it one of the largest undrilled structures in the onshore US. The primary target reservoirs are thick sands of the Cretaceous age Hosston Formation which are major producers elsewhere in the Gulf Coast region. Based on seismic data and an offset well the top of the Hosston Formation is anticipated to be encountered at a depth of approximately 5,335m (17,500 feet). The primary target is expected to consist of approximately 1,220m (4,000 feet) of inter-bedded sandstones and shales with the potential for multiple prospective intervals. 

The initial well to test this structure is currently being drilled with a proposed Total Depth of 6,400m (21,000 feet). As of 25 October 2006, the well had been drilled to a depth of 5,317m (17,440 feet). During drilling gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations. Interpretation of logs indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling. While we consider that the logs are encouraging, the commercial significance of log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed. 

*The primary Hosston target is expected to be reached in the next few days* and the total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) in mid November. ​[/font] 

the report is dated yesterday...


depends on how you want to read it..

i see it twice and read it as above..

what do you think?? am i reading it wrong.. believe me,, i dont knwo what to make of it,, but if its right then it sure makes for interesting reading tomorrow


----------



## nioka

These reports often take a few days to prepare and I often find they are a little behind .I think this is what is happening here. Tomorrow should be up to date.


----------



## HOMER J

thats how i got caught out too, but the second paragraph reads:

The initial well to test this structure is currently being drilled with a proposed Total Depth of 6,400m (21,000 feet). *As of 25 October 2006,* the well had been drilled to a depth of 5,317m (17,440 feet). During drilling gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations. Interpretation of logs indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling. While we consider that the logs are encouraging, the commercial significance of log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed


----------



## Agentm

thanks for that..  i read it as a seperate paragraph, and assumed it meant a more recent update... 

as it was a first quarter update i figured they were updating not rehashing


----------



## Sham

If they are drilling the hosston zone I think they would have only just entered it. In any case 4000ft of zone will take more then a day of drilling and they could have a massive find anywhere in that 4000ft. I say buy the stock your happy to hold and then go take a holiday for a few weeks if this is stressing you out.


----------



## maverick11

For those interested in reading about the process:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Well_logging

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wireline

Patience required with this one... that is also why we are seeing a bit of a sell out today.


----------



## Agentm

this is a world class well.. this in my opinion is no small wildcat dream chasing stunt..

all parts of the drill are done with professionalism,, they case away, they do extensive wireline logging early.. they keep very discrete and the main primary is now on the horizon...

the amount of research and years that has taken this project to today is pretty extensive.. its not like a wilcatter in turkey that you get on board in the last three weeks.. its a genuine and massive play that needs to be planned and drilled carefully and professionally with attention to detail..

the day to day fluctuations are irrelevant to the outcome.. ADI has planned forward wells,, AUT and EKA have no plans.. my guess is that AUT and EKA have not the cash reserves or the heart to tell their shareholders of the potential of the secondaries and the very real probability of further development wells being on the horizon..

tomorrow will give everyone the news they are looking for.. as in where they are and how well its going..


----------



## HOMER J

EKA currently have $3.073 million minus the cost of the Bismil project. the can raise up to another $1.25 million in the current share purchase plan.


----------



## Agentm

well then if it enough to cover further small exploritory rigs then they are fine i guess.. not much dilution to come there.. at 12% diluting to under 10% after the landowners take their bit,, the more anyone dilutes from here on is going to change the cents per share value,, and if hosston hits it doesnt matter,, but if only secondaries are successful then it can add up a little and hurt all three as the penny counters find the real value..


----------



## cicak_kupang

Took the chance and topped up on a few ADI at the lower end of the
sp today.  I expect that we will see votatility in the sp for a while and may go as low as .50, but Agentm is right, the scene/mood has changed, the day traders are in on this one now big time and that will bring volatility with it.  Stay in there for the long haul, and hay, this is only half the story, still new taiton to go.


----------



## HOMER J

yes im hoping EKA have enough to join ADI on the extra couple of drills. maybe they will wait till the secondaries have been tested to decide (publicly anyway). Either way it seems like the extra drills must have pretty decent odds for sucess for ADI.

cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Based on the secondaries SL is a success so theres no need to panic ADI keeping cards close too there chest when they have all the facts and data watch this baby go


----------



## Agentm

looking at ARQ quarterly released today,,

says same as AUT re hosston

• [font=Arial,Arial]Adelphi (ARC 26% owned associated company) commenced drilling its Sugar Loaf 1 well in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA during the quarter. The primary target, the Hosston Formation, is expected to be reached in November 2006, with encouraging hydrocarbon indications already encountered in the shallow secondary objective section. 

[/font]saying nov as the time when hosston is expected...

still looking for the conspiracy theory..

so i semi claim AUT's even though i have been proved wrong and now claim ARQ is saying hosston is not reached yet..

possibility that drilling may have been struck with various problems and slowed down..

will keep looking for next theory.. wont rest now until i uncover another!!


----------



## Agentm

the report contained 2 references to adelphi,, the second hidden away in the last page of the written report.. am a ARQ investor and was just rolling thru the numbers and suddenly they say the same thing again.. conspiracy theory continues:


• [font=Arial,Arial]Adelphi (ARC 26% owned associated company) commenced drilling its Sugar Loaf 1 well in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA during the quarter. *The primary target, the Hosston Formation, is expected to be reached in November 2006,* with encouraging hydrocarbon indications already encountered in the shallow secondary objective section. 


[/font]*and later in the same report:*

*CORPORATE REVIEW 

Adelphi Energy Limited 

*During the quarter ARC increased its shareholding in Adelphi to 26.3% as part of a wider placement by Adelphi. Adelphi continues to pursue a number of opportunities both internationally and in Australia with a view to further growing its asset base. The Sugarloaf 1 well (Adelphi: 20%) currently being drilled on one of the largest un-drilled prospects onshore USA has encountered encouraging hydrocarbon shows in the shallow objective section *and is expected to encounter the principal reservoir objective Hosston Sandstone section shortly*. The New Taiton prospect (Adelphi 25%) is expected to be drilled later in the year. Both wells have the potential to materially affect the value of Adelphi and thus the value of ARC’s investment in Adelphi. 


so adding this to the AUT report saying much the same, i am still under the belief that hosston is yet to be drilled...

now i am extremely curious as to what the update brings.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well at least the report still says expecting Nov so whatever going on will still see the results sometime soon Dec cant come quick enough !


----------



## fflintoff

*TARZANHEY & COUCH*

Tarzanhey,
Have a go at this link from a back issue of Couch ´s daily reports.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"Drilling Funds and the wells they participate in.
Just a quick note that may help you gain access to information re: the Dec. Fund and the wells where it is invested.   You can access the Well Inventory file thru the website, 

www.couchoil.com/books.asp .  

Just click on the “Well Inventory File” hyperlink at the top of the page.   Once that file (Excel) opens, You can click on the tab (2nd spreadsheet) called “Monthly Drilling Funds” to
see which wells are in the December ’05 Fund.   You can look at any of the individual well sheets to get an update on what’s going on with that well."
http://www.couchoil.com/daily/2006/0308.htm


----------



## fflintoff

*TARZANHEY ; COUCH & WELLTRACKER*

Couch & welltracker. Another challenge for Tarzanhey

http://www.couchoil.com/daily/2006/0117.htm

Couch “Our goal is too have a back office password protected site (welltracker.com) for each investor that will tell him or her:

1. What wells they have invested in.
2. What stage that well is in – drilling, testing, completion, frac, testing, flowing, revenue
3. Reservoir and multiple reservoir analysis to determine the estimated well value.
4. Review of the 4 to 5 available wells drilled in current month and direct reservation and participation system.
5. After you establish your multi-well small oil company in 2 or 3 years (40 to 100 wells)… what small part of cash flow needed to maintain or grow your well reserve cash flow portfolio…. When you want to switch your program to annuity vs reserve building.
6. Accounting models you or your Accountant can review to help lower your tax liabilities with passive well investments.
7. Educational review of internal and external Geology courses available to help you understand our open book type investing.”

More on Welltracker

http://www.enfocom.com/work/drilling_records.asp

Our Work - Drilling Records - Custom Web-based Application Development

Drilling Records Online Application
Drilling Records Application - Custom Online Application Development
Drilling Records is an organization that supplies detailed drilled-well information to clients requiring technical information to make calculated decisions on which techniques to use in drilling a particular area. The data was delivered to customers in the form of a stand-alone desktop application with the required database available on compact discs. As new wells are drilled, the data must be updated and due to the cost of distribution, the compact discs were sent out once a month.
The need to distribute "live" data became increasingly greater as a shorter turn around time for drilling decisions could mean larger savings. Drilling Records also began to recognize the potential for selling the data online.
ENFOCOM was engaged by Drilling Records to develop WellTracker - a web application that provides online search options and enables customers to purchase detailed drilled- well technical information. The "live" data includes graphical analyses of drilling history measured against time. The on-line database contains more than 200,000 wells


----------



## tarzanhey

*Re: TARZANHEY & COUCH*



			
				fflintoff said:
			
		

> Tarzanhey,
> Have a go at this link from a back issue of Couch ´s daily reports.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> "Drilling Funds and the wells they participate in.
> Just a quick note that may help you gain access to information re: the Dec. Fund and the wells where it is invested.   You can access the Well Inventory file thru the website,
> 
> www.couchoil.com/books.asp .
> 
> Just click on the “Well Inventory File” hyperlink at the top of the page.   Once that file (Excel) opens, You can click on the tab (2nd spreadsheet) called “Monthly Drilling Funds” to
> see which wells are in the December ’05 Fund.   You can look at any of the individual well sheets to get an update on what’s going on with that well."
> http://www.couchoil.com/daily/2006/0308.htm





FLintoff

Ran the website update program and found i think around 8 additions or updates but nothing about our special area of interest. Sorry


----------



## djones

Report out now. Basically a nothing to report report. People will sell as they are impatient after reading that so I will be buying ADI today. Hopefull for 50-55c.


----------



## maverick11

17,950ft and still not quite into hosston.  Week delay after changing drill bit


----------



## Broadside

good news to me...still 100% of Hosston to be drilled  :


----------



## HOMER J

yep you were on the money AgentM..... not in hosston yet
the market was getting worked up about nothing yesterday lol...


----------



## Agentm

as i thought, the drill bit replacement takes ages..

yet to reach hosston sands.. so this should impact well on the share price.

looking forward to trouble free drilling and a trading halt in the coming week..

it says its drilling ahead,, but it also doesnt say its current depth is any different to last weeks.. so we assume that as soon as they can drill they will..

thats now a 2 week delay,, which for anyone who knows rigs is pretty expensive..  so add a few mill to the rig costs here also.  

i would like to see who is prepared to sell now..  would you?


----------



## maverick11

yes, rig cost would be around $500k per week, with staff, etc on top of that.  Just imagine withdrawing 17,500ft of drill rods to replace the diamond drill bit, then lowering it back down the hole....massive job and I'd say they're probably using 45-50ft drill rods.

They were on the money with the secondary depths, but it looks like Hosston is a little deeper than anticipated.  Surely they must be so so close now??

Can anyone tell me, are they planning to release a preliminary announcement once they hit hosston and possible revealing they have a gas show, or are they going to wait til they hit bottom @ approx 21,00ft then reveal everything in 1 hit??


----------



## Sham

Exciting isn't it ? We are at a point in time when massive profits could easily be in reach. Which way will the cards fall ?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well hoping for a trouble free end too SL and hopefully an announcement between now and next weeks updat im thinking Monday if the drilling picks up the pace


----------



## maverick11

Can anyone tell me, are they planning to release a preliminary announcement once they hit hosston and possibly revealing they have a gas show, or are they going to wait till they hit bottom @ approx 21,00ft then reveal everything in 1 hit??

If it's the latter, it wont be till late Nov.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Personally i feel they may release some kinda announcement if they hit gas just too update the market and keep sp under control too keep asx happy


----------



## Agentm

it wouldnt be possible for them to keep a lid on the discovery so they are required by ASX rules to disclose any information. so any significant find will be released immediately, and less important information is disclosed on the weekly report..


stock is at a great price but the volumes are pitiful.. tiny trades..

what would i would have thought the stock would have risen with expectation like a few weeks ago.. there is no frenzy today,, maybe too many stuck in the GDN saga?

great buying opportunity


----------



## tarzanhey

maverick11 said:
			
		

> yes, rig cost would be around $500k per week, with staff, etc on top of that.  Just imagine withdrawing 17,500ft of drill rods to replace the diamond drill bit, then lowering it back down the hole....massive job and I'd say they're probably using 45-50ft drill rods.
> 
> They were on the money with the secondary depths, but it looks like Hosston is a little deeper than anticipated.  Surely they must be so so close now??
> 
> Can anyone tell me, are they planning to release a preliminary announcement once they hit hosston and possible revealing they have a gas show, or are they going to wait til they hit bottom @ approx 21,00ft then reveal everything in 1 hit??





imagine - how many drill rods they needed take up to replace the drill bit - assuming say 50 ft each that is a least 350 rods for 17500 ft ( I am not surprised it took a week).

Drilling on now so will be in there soon.

Remember secondary's are already good!

Hosston is the thick icing to the sugarloaf- the rest of the cake is already there and very edible - patience will be rewarded.


----------



## maverick11

Found out the drill rods are approx 30ft each, so that's a sh*#load of rods!!  Approx 580 to be exact!   

If the SP drops much more as people get itchy feet, I will be looking at ways of buying more too!

Actually, when I think about it, this stock has been yo-yo'ing on anticipation over the last few weeks..if I had sold at peaks and bought at lows, I would be sitting on a sweet little profit from that alone.  I know of a couple people who are actually doing this...  But would hate to miss this boat when it sets sail!!


----------



## nioka

maverick11 said:
			
		

> If the SP drops much more as people get itchy feet, I will be looking at ways of buying more too!
> 
> Actually, when I think about it, this stock has been yo-yo'ing on anticipation over the last few weeks..if I had sold at peaks and bought at lows, I would be sitting on a sweet little profit from that alone.  I know of a couple people who are actually doing this...  But would hate to miss this boat when it sets sail!!




Actually this was my point earlier Computer generated buying and selling by day traders and particularly stop loss selling which has a domino effect. Easily explained by my position on the stock pick. 1st at one stage, now 66th. You have 2 choices join the day traders or stick in there. Day traders may not be holding when the news breaks. They also run the risk of a trading halt in this type of business and if they are on credit it will create problems for them. I'm backing my judgement and sticking in there but then I,m not always right, My future doesn't depend on it so I can afford to be wrong. Remember the greater the gain, the greater the risk, usually.


----------



## HOMER J

ADI sitting still so far today although its doing some decent volumes. looks well supported around 56-57. from a T/A perspective its closed a gap at 59 in the last few days so a few traders might be happier buying now. EKA/AUT up a little too. Wonder if well see buying tomorrow to be holding over the weekend.

cheers


----------



## maverick11

All morning people have been sitting tight, then i get back from lunch and the sp price has gone choppy again.  Mannn!  I want more!  

I agree that there's a good chance it will close strong tomorrow evening


----------



## fflintoff

*OIL BARREL - Bullish*

Taken from oilbarrel.com today:
Empyrean Energy Looks To Sugarloaf Prospect For Sweet Smell Of Success 
London AIM-listed Empyrean Energy is drilling ahead with the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well in Texas, where it hopes to bring a smile to investors’ faces ahead of the Christmas break. Empyrean is earning a 6 per cent equity share in the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin, with initial drilling scheduled for completion later this month, slightly behind original timings. 

Empyrean farmed into the acreage earlier this year and partners Aussie duo Aurora Oil & Gas and Adelphi Energy, alongside operator Texas Crude Energy Inc. The proposed total depth of the well, which crosses a number of potentially interesting formations, is around 21,000 feet. 

There is clear potential, especially in such a built-up, gas-hungry neighbourhood. Sugarloaf is an 80 km four-way closure that could hold several trillion cubic feet of gas, making it one of the largest undrilled structures onshore US. The P50 resource number on the prospect is 0.97 tcf and it carries a P10 estimate of 2.3 tcf. 

But only time will tell how good Sugarloaf will taste. In the meantime, Empyrean can take heart from earlier drilling at its other US play, the Eagle Oil prospect in the San Joaquin Basin in California. A proven oil and gas zone - the area has produced some 12 billion barrels of oil and 11 tcf of gas through the years - the project offers strong potential for near-term production and cash flow. 

Empyrean signed up for a 38.5 per cent slice of Eagle Oil just months after its market listing last year, and now partners another reputable Aussie in the shape of Victoria Petroleum NL. But getting the oil out of the ground is the key challenge. A workover rig is testing encouraging oil shows from previous drilling at the Eagle North-1 well, though the project has faced delays due to supply and equipment bottlenecks. 

The group plan a future re-entry and sidetrack from the current cased Eagle North-1 well bore in the lower Gatchell oil sand, about 14,000 feet down. This future well test will indicate the size of the Eagle Oil pool, according to Tom Kelly, Empyrean’s commercial director. “We know that oil is there,” he says. “We just need to flow test.” 

More than a year after its AIM listing, Empyrean has bolstered its portfolio with two promising, and fairly low-risk, US-based projects. An additional capital raising exercise earlier this year means it is well placed to continue its exploration and work towards first production. This includes ongoing site work in Germany, the firm’s other core territory. 

On the other side of the Atlantic, the UK firm has a stake in the Glantal Prospect, Neues Bergland permit, close to Frankfurt, which is operated by Pannonian International Limited. The joint venture, which gives Empyrean a 40 per cent working interest - and the possibility of raising this to 52 per cent - hopes to extract gas trapped in deep coal beds. 

Again, the prospect is thought to contain several tcf of recoverable gas reserves, hugely attractive figures anywhere but especially so in Western Europe’s industrial heartland. But there is still some way to go, with further testing planned following initial positive drilling and gas shows.


----------



## fflintoff

maverick11 said:
			
		

> yes, rig cost would be around $500k per week, with staff, etc on top of that.  Just imagine withdrawing 17,500ft of drill rods to replace the diamond drill bit, then lowering it back down the hole....massive job and I'd say they're probably using 45-50ft drill rods.
> 
> They were on the money with the secondary depths, but it looks like Hosston is a little deeper than anticipated.  Surely they must be so so close now??
> 
> Can anyone tell me, are they planning to release a preliminary announcement once they hit hosston and possible revealing they have a gas show, or are they going to wait til they hit bottom @ approx 21,00ft then reveal everything in 1 hit??



-----------------------------------------------------------------
Approved budget is US$5750000. Daily costs approx US$75000.
Any price sensitive news to be released before TD. The last two announcements were not price sensitive but the previous Wed statement was categorised as ! ( Price Sensitive ).


----------



## tarzanhey

Did anyone know that Sugarloaf was stated as being in three counties?

Couch describes it as 



Sugarloaf Hosston Prospect



Bee, Karnes and Live Oak Counties, Texas


EVERYTHINGS BIG IN TEXAS


----------



## Agentm

I have been watching GDN for the past weeks, not as a buyer, not even remotely interested in the stock, but watching it as to what a disaster it can be for a company to ramp up any find without any evidence to prove commercial viability..

ADI has been smooth here i feel,, they could have disclosed the logs, could have the price at $1.20 now,, then suffer the 20% -30% price fluctuations..

In my opinion no director at ADI wants any of the daytrading senario thats happening on some smallcaps.. and any shows from now on will be reported weekly and reported quietly.. there is nothing to gain by seeing massive spikes on the stock, i would expect a slow and steady rise as the news breaks from week to week.. 

I cant see these guys doing wirelines until they completed the drill to TD..
I wouldnt think that any other news besides mudlogs can be given. 

I wouldnt want to be a director getting calls from investors after their share price goes down 30 -50% and these guys at ADI are not in my view going to benifit from ramping or spruiking sugarloaf, in my opinion theres going to be little fanfare from here on in, the only price sensitive report was listed a while ago and its up to the incvestor to believe the report has some merit or not.

I firmly believe this well aint going to be ramped, and it isnt going to be driven by daytraders too much as the directors are not going to play along.. the best a daytrader can do with this stock is second guess a result in a weekly report..

i hope the share price remains steady, and conservative, its still great value in my opinion as i have faith in the austin chalks find as i dont think ADI has anything to gain by stating they are possibly drilling 2 further wells at sugarloaf.. my reasons to invest are for the 2 secondaries at sugar loaf and the 3 plays at new tiaton, i wont be reevaluating anything until both shows are over and the values are on the boards..

if you into day trading this stock good luck and enjoy it, but i honestly dont think the ADI guys are the type to join in, they have their own money in this, and they paid full price.. 5% of ADI is directors, and 26% is ARQ and those guys are not cowboys and are not ramping... ARQ has good reasons to see its stock remains stable also and playing around with sugarloaf is not going to happen..

I believe the stock is value today on the basis of the secondaries, and if anyone wants to punt on the 22% chance of the primary going off then its there for anyone who comes on board.. 

steady as she goes for a few weeks is my pick.. and regarless of ups or downs this has no bearing on my outcome, as i wont exit until i get the value i went in this play for..

cheers


----------



## Broadside

hi AgentM, I hope you're right and agree how the partners handle their news releases doesn't give daytraders much of a sniff.  Despite that if there are signs of gas in Hosston, even though they won't be quantified, a lot of daytraders will be all over it...a lot of money has been made on GDN (thus far) and some of those profits will be punted onto Sugarloaf if the primary target looks promising.  Should be an interesting afternoon.  Very quiet day thus far.


----------



## Agentm

just being a little bit curious about the eka report..

it announces the 98 foot play and adds some great stuff i have not seen before..

if they state the wilcox play has 47 BCF in it, then that should impact a little on the share price,, 27BCF alone is supposed to be worth .63   so so it would be worth double that then on top of the share price.. 

am i reading their report right..??  page 9...


----------



## cicak_kupang

Agentm said:
			
		

> just being a little bit curious about the eka report..
> 
> it announces the 98 foot play and adds some great stuff i have not seen before..
> 
> if they state the wilcox play has 47 BCF in it, then that should impact a little on the share price,, 27BCF alone is supposed to be worth .63   so so it would be worth double that then on top of the share price..
> 
> am i reading their report right..??  page 9...




Yeah, I'm reading it the same Agentm.  ADI doesnt need to do any announcements at this rate, every one else is doing for them, ADI just playing the cool cats....


----------



## Agentm

i've been told i could be jumping at shadows,, it may mean another well near by and not the sugarloaf well when they say:


Recent drilling results indicate significantly increased potential in the shallow

objectives.​ 
cheers


----------



## Broadside

regardless of who is saying what, the market doesn't seem to be factoring it in....I think ADI and its partners for that matter would still be around these prices just prior to Hosston even if secondaries had been fizzers...the market doesn't seem to be joining the dots, or alternatively we are doing so errantly.  I think it is the former.


----------



## fflintoff

EKA Corporate Report dated November 3, 2006 confirms TD end of Nov rather than mid Nov as hitherto because of the delay caused by the extra casing to stem the Sligo pressure & the change to the drill bit & bottom hole assembly. Hosston primary target is angled at 4000ft from 18000ft. ARQ report infers that this target will be entered this week & drilled at say 140ft per day. There could be several trading halts over the next 15 - 18 business days.


----------



## Dukey

G'day all you'se ADI'ers!!

The question of timing of ADI releases seems to coming up regularly. But as far as I see it - from reading the regular Wed. releases they state clearly ...

quote
'ASX releases will continue to be made routinely every Wednesday *unless there are material matters that require earlier release'*
unquote

Wouldn't significant gas in Hosston constitute a 'material matter'?
I would've thought so - so I would expect that any such find should be released to the market ASAP - so as to avoid those with inside knowledge gaining too much advantage. IMHO.

Either way - holding on and waiting... waiting - not selling... NOT selling!!

Secondaries are nice insurance heh!?


----------



## maverick11

fflintoff said:
			
		

> There could be several trading halts over the next 15 - 18 business days.




Wouldn't that be an awesome ride!!  Better than sex... well not quite   

Have a good weekend everyone


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well ARC has been tipped as a buy in both ninemsn Money magazine and in WA Sunday Times any relation too Sugarloaf being so close ?


----------



## Agentm

no doubt the fact that alex has emailed a few from HC (on the EKA page) and confirmed the sort of things he did, makes me wonder how long it will be before the market reacts..

confirming the secondaries are capable of requiring a significant number of additional wells is starting to sound like couchy was right!!

hope alex is right..

cheers


----------



## HOMER J

yes i just noticed that post, very interesting. ill post it here:

Hi Steve,

Whilst it is still a little early to predict the number of wells we would be drilling on our Sugarloaf leases as a result of this current well, a development of the shallow discovery, if it is proved to be commercial following testing, can be expected to result in a significant number of additional wells.

We will advise the market as soon as we have a confirmed date for spudding New Taiton but we would certainly expect to commence drilling prior to year end at the latest.

Regards 

Alex Forcke

Executive Chairman

Adelphi Energy Limited

Ground Floor

88 Colin Street

West Perth WA 6005

Tel: 61-8 9263 4600

Fax: 61-8 9263 4688

Mobile: 0417 188 474



side note: i just noticed a nice 150000 bid on ADI. could be a good day


----------



## unixspice

HOMER J said:
			
		

> yes i just noticed that post, very interesting. ill post it here:
> 
> Hi Steve,
> 
> Whilst it is still a little early to predict the number of wells we would be drilling on our Sugarloaf leases as a result of this current well, a development of the shallow discovery, if it is proved to be commercial following testing, can be expected to result in a significant number of additional wells.
> 
> We will advise the market as soon as we have a confirmed date for spudding New Taiton but we would certainly expect to commence drilling prior to year end at the latest.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Alex Forcke
> 
> Executive Chairman
> 
> Adelphi Energy Limited
> 
> Ground Floor
> 
> 88 Colin Street
> 
> West Perth WA 6005
> 
> Tel: 61-8 9263 4600
> 
> Fax: 61-8 9263 4688
> 
> Mobile: 0417 188 474
> 
> 
> 
> side note: i just noticed a nice 150000 bid on ADI. could be a good day





Sorry, where was this supposed letter from the chairman originally posted ?


----------



## Agentm

hotcopper, on the eka thread..


if its genuine then it makes the annual report and the austin chalks a legitimate prospect as seperate project as they have been proclaiming ..

it appears only ADI is preparing for multiple and by the look of it large number well development of the austin chalks...

hosston is a great little money spinner and a nice thought,, but as i have said before,, the secondaries were my interest aloneas they were not wilcat catagory plays...

GDN went to $1.20 on a similar size secondary.. and the austing chalks was a massive high pressure find... gas and oil...  the austin chalks have been wirelined, and only need flow testing.. GDN has not wirelined theirs yet!!

just a thought!!


----------



## Broadside

sandybeaches whilst being grumpy from time to time doesn't strike me as a poster who would make such a thing up, generally on the bearish / sceptical side so I don't doubt the authenticitity, for what it's worth....and sandy knows oilers


----------



## Agentm

for what its worth from my end,, 

it fits in with everything i have seen, heard, read and spoken to about..

there is plenty about thats in the forum and plenty thats out in the private realm... and i wouldnt be telling anyone i knew to be selling adi in the near term, and definately wait until the well is fully flow tested,, you may be in for a big shock on the size of the find,, and i maintain its oil and gas in the austin chalks and gas only in the sligo.

sugarloaf is imo a fully successful well, and many many wells to come on the austin chalks..

dyor on this as its a bit of a sleeper still,


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> for what its worth from my end,,
> 
> it fits in with everything i have seen, heard, read and spoken to about..
> 
> there is plenty about thats in the forum and plenty thats out in the private realm... and i wouldnt be telling anyone i knew to be selling adi in the near term, and definately wait until the well is fully flow tested,, you may be in for a big shock on the size of the find,, and i maintain its oil and gas in the austin chalks and gas only in the sligo.
> 
> sugarloaf is imo a fully successful well, and many many wells to come on the austin chalks..
> 
> dyor on this as its a bit of a sleeper still,





You guys seem to be putting on some nice increases today so far,  64 now.

GOOD LUCK ALL FOR A BRILLIANT WEEK!


----------



## unixspice

So I'm still a little confused by this supposed letter from Alex. Steve whoever he is just thought he'd ask old Alex what was happening at sugarloaf and he replied with information that hasn't been disclosed elsewhere (except perhaps on couchoil) that I'm aware of....

Huh ?


----------



## Agentm

i cant see anything confusing in the email. i was only interested in the secondaries on sugarloaf so i thought the post was worth mentioning..

i thought adi had hinted on 2 sugarloaf wells 2007. adn proclaimed a possible seperate project on the austin chalks alone... couchy said 100, and never to be heard from again..
i hear things like 15 at a minimum.. so it seems the figure is correct if you take the view that a significant number of wells to mean that..

its interesting to see the reply,, sounds very alex to me..

the bit i was stggered to hear the news on new tiaton,, i heard there were delays from heavy rain and the start time was nov.. not end of year..

the austin chalks have been wirelined, and later will be flow tested. 
looking good for investors i think.. cant comment on what day traders can do with the information..


----------



## Agentm

i know i have posted this before, but i still believe that only gas shows are reported on the weekly reports,, only one report has been listed out of the usual timeframe, that was a friday wireline log result.. and as a report it was scant with information.. 

I think that hosston is now being drilled. I also think this weeks report will be the first one for the sugarloaf primary.

I cant imagine they will be running wirelines until TD. so my pick is for a wednesday report, stating depth and gas shows, and thats it.

Gas shows as such are not entirely market sensitive, but i think they may see a massive spike in the price if, as expected, there is gas shows. 

18/8 
23/8
30/8
6/9
13/9
20/9
27/9
*29/9 wireline*
4/10
11/10
18/10
25/10
1/11
8/11

my bets on wednesday  and my pick is gas shows.. imo dyor


----------



## Broadside

Agent M if my memory serves me correctly the special 29 September  release was when the Couch Oil info got into the market and there was a bit of a run, I think the announcement at that time was designed to stop the speculation in its tracks...I could be wrong a lot has happened since then


----------



## Agentm

yep.. your right i think.. it was designed to prevent the disaster that GDN is in with a share price in the stratosphere and many millions in the pool at very very high buy in prices,, yet nothing significant in the primary todate.. i hope those buying in on the ride were also happy to see this plunge as each day they release report after report yet the price is straining.. i noticed some selling by the directors also in recent days there on GDN..  you could find easier ways to lose that sort of value in a company,, and i am yet to be impressed by the way that company is run..

i always view a sell like that to be very much like the CDU one.. once a directors puts self interest over the company then i would never invest.. 

good luck if you on the cup.. activation is my pick..


----------



## fflintoff

Broadside said:
			
		

> Agent M if my memory serves me correctly the special 29 September  release was when the Couch Oil info got into the market and there was a bit of a run, I think the announcement at that time was designed to stop the speculation in its tracks...I could be wrong a lot has happened since then



-----------------------------
Nothing to do with Couch. On Wed 27 Sep they stated that a further announcement would be made on the interpretation of the wire line logs which duly arrived 48 hours later & caused the trading halt. 
If they have shows at the Primary they will not wait for every Wednesday. They are already tip toeing on eggshells.


----------



## Lucky_Country

So they have been drilling the Hosston for almost a week and have had no  gas shows is that what you are saying ?


----------



## Broadside

fflintoff said:
			
		

> -----------------------------
> Nothing to do with Couch. On Wed 27 Sep they stated that a further announcement would be made on the interpretation of the wire line logs which duly arrived 48 hours later & caused the trading halt.
> If they have shows at the Primary they will not wait for every Wednesday. They are already tip toeing on eggshells.




fair nuff Freddie it may have been coincidence, I think it was at same time Couch spilled the beans however.  I believe they should announce to market immediately if they encounter gas in Hosston but I think others may have a different view and that it would just be contained in the weekly update.  I think a gas show would need to be revealed asap to keep the market fully informed, continuous disclosure etc.


----------



## fflintoff

Broadside said:
			
		

> fair nuff Freddie it may have been coincidence, I think it was at same time Couch spilled the beans however.  I believe they should announce to market immediately if they encounter gas in Hosston but I think others may have a different view and that it would just be contained in the weekly update.  I think a gas show would need to be revealed asap to keep the market fully informed, continuous disclosure etc.



---------------------------------------------------
Broady,
You are correct. It was a coincidence. Couch update was published 12 hours after the aussie updates to the market on Fri Sep 29.
Fully agree with your statement that any gas shows at the Hosston primary are deemed to be price sensitive & must be disclosed pdq & not just on Wednesday.


----------



## Agentm

i dont dissagree that the news of a gas show is price sensitive news, but in the secondaries they had shows, and wirelined without announcing anything, if the crew at sugarloaf are that watertight, then they can quietly go about their job, not hyperinflate the share price like GDN and have a great level price thats stable and able to reflect the true value of their position.. 

no director at adi wants to see 80% of the share pool traded in 3 days over a hyped up gas show.. even though its price sensitive, my view is that nothing will change and all announcements will come in the weekly reports, and the well wirelined and prodution tested after TD.

a gas show does not mean succes, and these guys know it, so they will in my view, not want the market to overreact, so its not going to happen until wednesday in my book


----------



## eckart

Agentm hope tip on SL is better then your MC tip.
Doesn't matter anyway. Bought at .32 sold 40% at .62 so I am on a winner already. Thanks for your info though.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well all is quiet today hope no - ones getting too nervous and sell out we will take aour profits together guys !
Hopefully tommorrows weekly update will let us in on how things are going and hopefully a mention of gas would really be a great confidence boost for the Hosston.
Personally I feel we have nothing too worry about as the upper zones are the bedrock of the sp and Hosston will be the icing on the cake
See you tommorrow guys


----------



## Agentm

if they did manage to drill away last week then we find out tomorrow, last week they had managed to change a drill bit, and that took a week. 


tomorrow i expect the report to be as they were on all previous occasssions, very tight on info and no hype.

melbourne cup was a great race, those japanese horses are brilliant, and that kid rode himself into $500,000 ,  oliver got $300,000 for second.. based on the usual MC 10% formula..

plenty will sell tomorrow i think as they are on a different agenda.. and some will buy in, and i am guessing the buyers will be smiling.. its a great value share for those accumulating still..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well thought that they had drilled some last week just 150m tho but that sould equate into an interesting update tommorrow no more hold ups hopefully


----------



## maverick11

anyone know why the price dropped?  Looks like it will come up again though.  Insiders in the know about a possible poor announcement today??  Very weird


----------



## nioka

maverick11 said:
			
		

> anyone know why the price dropped?  Looks like it will come up again though.  Insiders in the know about a possible poor announcement today??  Very weird



Day traders and their stop loss orders creating a domino effect. Seems to have eased up.


----------



## Agentm

i think the price will fall as much as the daytraders flee..


if there is no shows in todays report then the trend will continue..

great buying opportunities coming..


----------



## mildew79

looks like people are getting impatient. good risk reward on this one i feel, as the secondaries will justify a SP not to far below current (0.535). dont like the look of the board atm, however this will be irrelevant should they hit the primary.

would like to see some positive signs at announcement today to calm my nerves


----------



## mildew79

nioka said:
			
		

> Day traders and their stop loss orders creating a domino effect. Seems to have eased up.




do you think they would use a stop loss in this? 

i personally doubt their are to many stop losses in this one, the day traders will be screen staring. not much depth. i wouldnt want my sells appearing on the board for everyone to see...

anyhow fingers crossed. upside is massive so worth the risk.


----------



## nioka

mildew79 said:
			
		

> do you think they would use a stop loss in this?
> 
> i personally doubt their are to many stop losses in this one, the day traders will be screen staring. not much depth. i wouldnt want my sells appearing on the board for everyone to see...
> 
> anyhow fingers crossed. upside is massive so worth the risk.



A lot of part time traders aren't in a position to watch all the time. A lot are on borrowed money and set automatic stop loss orders. Todays fall would trigger them. That is why I never use them myself.


----------



## HOMER J

Still not there yet    im happy to wait...

8 November 2006
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
SUGARLOAF-1 WEEKLY PROGRESS REPORT
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 7th November 2006 the
Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, was
drilling ahead in 6- ½ inch hole at a depth of 18,245 feet (5,563 metres).
Since the last report on 1st November 2006, the well has drilled 295 feet (90 metres). The
main Hosston reservoir targets have yet to be reached.
During the week, two further changes to the bottom hole assembly were made and
reaming operations were conducted, which has affected the overall drilling progress.
The proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) is expected to be reached during
November assuming trouble-free drilling.
ASX releases will continue be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material
matters which require an earlier release.


----------



## maverick11

18,245ft and there's meant to be 4000ft of hosston...but total depth of 21,000ft?


----------



## stereo21

maverick11 said:
			
		

> 18,245ft and there's meant to be 4000ft of hosston...but total depth of 21,000ft?



I was thinking the same thing after last weeks report.  Does this mean that they will extend the total drill depth?


----------



## Agentm

its obvious that the seismics were not accurate, and they have to yet reach the primary..

they will drill as far as they have to or can.. 

the reaming operations are obviously time consuming, and the great news is that they can still drill away and wont have any further stuck pipe or drill bits.

we can only wait until next week for the updates,, 

currently the price is great for buying in on this prospect..  imagine a share that can go $6 is trading at .55


----------



## mildew79

Agentm said:
			
		

> fantastic news...
> 
> 
> buy if you can guys,,,




agentm the optimist. what fantastic news??? that the SP has dropped considerably?

i have enjoyed your posts so far (agentm) and found them very usefull and educated. i thank you for this. however, dont pull wool over your own eyes. Although the risk reward ratio on this one is very positive, the risk is still there! fantastic news will inform us we are all rich! 

once again thanks for your detailed posts, much appreciated


----------



## Agentm

i see adi differently i guess..

i was concerned last week as they did not report they were reallyy drilling away at any distance from where they they ended up, my thoughts were that they were maybe still not drilling but still wanting to drill away..

7 days in the sands with no news indicated to me that the first primary may not have been giving much gas shows or kicks..

for me, the news that they are yet to drill the sands is fantastic,,

as for the share price,, it going down is pure buying opportunity for those wanting in on the secondaries and the possibility of a find in the hosston..

i welcome them onboard, they may be thinking its the best buy they made in a long time..

i am not as optomistic as much as i am confident.


----------



## blues

I bought more today. I have been patiently accumulating from the 30 cent mark as more updates come out. I feel with what has been found so far (the gas shows in the Austin Chalks) that at this price you have a free shot at the primary target.

If the primary target comes up empty I believe after the share price settles after the initial disappointment the secondaries plus New Taiton around the corner justify a higher share price then present.   

Cheers.


----------



## mildew79

Well they are drilling in there now so lets wait and see  

I agree the insurance of the secondaries and New Taiton make this trade feel like a near free punt at the big one.


----------



## Agentm

sounds like the sellers are getting what they wanted and the buyers are still around..have to say topping up was on the agenda for a week or so.. today was a great opportunity as the market did not get excited by the hosston sands at all..

i wonder if the last run blew out all the day traders??  

i see very negative and some alarming posts on HC re GDN.. its like they want to lynch the director for failing to deliver the secret logs that he promised.. i think they are on to him now.. i didnt buy in and follow the pump and dump run myself, but i can see a lot of very unhappy people out there who did.. and the director  seemed to sell at the peak!!

i know we may get a similar run on this stock if things happen at hosston.. but a gas show is a gas show and a gas field is a whole different thing..  if GDN couldnt drill away from the pressure and had to case off then i would be interested.. i guess thats why i am interested in what has been cased away in the austin chalks.. ( couchy certainly said it had a massive kick!!) 

i still want more of adi..


----------



## fflintoff

maverick11 said:
			
		

> 18,245ft and there's meant to be 4000ft of hosston...but total depth of 21,000ft?



-----------------------------------------------------
Mav,
They are not drilling vertically. Check out page 9 of EDA ´s corporate presentation dtd 3 Nov which shows the extreme angular approach at the Hosston shale & sandstone. After the reaming operations they should be able to drill much faster now & hence maintain the late Nov date for TD.


----------



## maverick11

thanks mate, was wondering that myself but hadn't seen the sketch.  I can certainly agree that drill deviation is usually around 15%, but on a deep hole like this, who knows.  They would have to be close by now I'd say


----------



## Agentm

just topped up,, looking around the house theres nothing left, only a chair and a few bits left in the kitchen to eat with,, i have a blanket to keep us warm at night and a bean bag,, sold everything,,, the neighbours dog which annoyed me and had to go,,,

now waiting for some action..

maybe??


----------



## Agentm

eka with half the value of sugarloaf to adi is nearly caught up..


nice time to buy adi i feel..


----------



## tarzanhey

Evening (to me ) all.

Well your Aussie threads seem so civilised compared to all the ramping and deramping in the UK.

So many people have a second agenda in England the AIM market is a complete mess run on hot money and spreadbetting.

Thats enough of my ranting. lets hope for some good action in the not so distant future.

What is the weather like over there at the moment - tell me and make me jealous. It is cold a foggy in the UK.

Good Luck All

Has Charlie become a COUCH Potato? - watching the screen quietly like a good boy.


----------



## HOMER J

yes id taken it off my watchlist too and just checked earlier. the last time i looked it was $1

heads up PREOPEN!


----------



## conman

HOMER J said:
			
		

> Hi Agentm, havnt heard anything but someone is snapping them up. GDN in freefall so maybe money switching over?





I would expect a trading halt in tne next 24-36hrs.

I predict the drilling will have just interupted the  shallower houston target in the last couple of hours.

Or of course they could try keep it quite till TD. Not likely though looking at todays chart.

Cheers Conman


----------



## maverick11

We have a pre-NR folks, trading suspended at the moment while news gets posted.  I suspect they are in the sprimary - not necessarilly a gas pay just yet though. 

EKA, AUT all up, except ADI.


----------



## HOMER J

usually when announcements take this long it ends up a trading halt. cant help being a little excited!


----------



## kevro

Opened up again without an ann and some one who positioned for the ann endedup buying 50k at .57c


----------



## Agentm

i say ARQ is the only way in to sugarloaf now...   they hold 25% or so of adi!!


----------



## HOMER J

i dont get it?!? seems ADI and EKA are trading again with no announcement?? AUT still waiting...


----------



## Agentm

so why havent the volumes moved?


----------



## HOMER J

Agentm said:
			
		

> so why havent the volumes moved?



they actually did move. ADI traded at 11.01 and EKAO just before. i think the ASX stuffed up!


----------



## HOMER J

ASX RELEASE
09 November 2006
Eureka Energy Limited (ASX:EKA, “Eureka” or “Company”)
SUGARLOAF-1 GAS INDICATIONS
Eureka Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 8 November, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at 18,361 feet (5,597 metres).
Two gas shows over an aggregate of 79 feet (24 metres) were obtained while drilling sediments, probably of Cretaceous age, between 18,192 feet and 18,315 feet. Total gas readings peaked at 295 units from a background of about 30 units, and chromatography indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and trace butane (C4).
The economic significance of these gas indications will not be known until wire-line logs, programmed to be run after the well has reached total depth, have been interpreted and flow testing, if warranted, has been evaluated.
Drilling is continuing towards proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres).
Participants in the Sugarloaf-1 well are:
Eureka Energy Ltd 1
12.5%
Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al 2
41.5%
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited
20.0%
Adelphi Energy Ltd
20.0%
Empyrean Energy plc
6.0%
1 Through its wholly-owned US subsidiary, Hosston Oil & Gas LP
2 Includes other private US companies / investors
Further details of the Sugarloaf Prospect and associated farm-in terms are summarised on our website at www.eurekaenergy.com.au which also includes a brief review of the US gas market and fiscal terms.


----------



## Agentm

congratulations everyone....


you are now the owner of stock that is worth gold..


and i aint selling a single share..

enjoy the ride as its sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> congratulations everyone....
> 
> 
> you are now the owner of stock that is worth gold..
> 
> 
> and i aint selling a single share..
> 
> enjoy the ride as its sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





Hope you dont mind if I post this on the UK bb Agent M

glad I stayed up late tonight


----------



## HOMER J

im a little suprised they arent going harder. think the market is asleep? wish i had more spare cash....


----------



## maverick11

i like the ASX stuff up where they opened for a minute then went back into pre-nr.  Few lucky people got orders in.

Gas in the hosston...this is great news.  There is gas there and this could be massive!

Surprised to see the volume aren't higher on these stocks


----------



## Broadside

the day traders got their fingers burned in GDN so they won't be rushing this one quite as fast....fine with me I am happy to wait and the full value will come in time...no intention of selling a single share before holding for 12 months, too much tax


----------



## unixspice

Any gas experts out there care to elaborate on those readings ?


----------



## kevro

Hi guys, have copied this from a post at HC regarding gas units. I am not an oiler or profess to understanding the terminology used but the number of units that ADI have compared to GDN is very different and GDB is getting hammered. I know they have a nice solid 24m but the units are vastly different. I hold both, here's the post, interested in your thoughts.



Hmmmmm ADI
from todays ann: why hasnt it retraced 100%

ADI has what? 20% interest in the well.

Total gas readings peaked at 295 units from a background of about 30 units, and chromatography
indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and
trace butane (C4).

from what i recall GDN has readings 

Gas (methane and ethane with trace propane) was present at levels of up to 2,300 units.
Connection gas ranges from 2,000 to 3,300 units.
Background gas has increased 40-fold to consistent levels of 500-900 units.
Trip gas ranges up to 3,520 units.
All gas levels are highly significant.

mate this is absolutely mental....i hold 



Fortune favours the brave.


----------



## maverick11

295u is 2.95%


----------



## Agentm

i can wait forever now for the market to open its eyes,,

1/  hosston sands...

2/ massive gas kick..

3/  everything they saw and everything they knew was there..


just start thinking in terms of porosity and terms of sheer size of this prospect,, they have only just begun to drill away into the sands and bang!!!!  there she is..

they expect layers in the sands then shale then layers in the sands,, so multiple gas shows all the way down..


the gas is there,, its the primary and man,, i am happy as..

i cant understand why you would sell today.. but good on anyone selling,, they are happy... i sell at a different level to whats happening out there today.. 

 after GDN the market is weary and wary...

this is a world class well,, drilled by the best in the business,, their credentials are impeccable and their results so far outstanding..


is this a great buy today??? DYOR and run the calculator over 1 TCF or 3 TCF and when you realise the numbers dont go that far on the calculator then maybe you will wake up..  

gas shows are gas shows,, but the numbers are good,, and i expect to see the same sort of announcements day after day now..

look at the research, look at the seismics,, look closely at the siesmics released by eka a week ago in their annual report,, look at couchys estimates,, look at the eka prospectus.. then ask youself if these guys have not delivered everything they went there for...

good luck and dont sell yourself short on sugarloaf.. its got $1.20 on the secondareies already and once you calculate the primaries its got many many  times that to go..

cheers


----------



## HOMER J

Great call on this one Agentm! you were extremely confident of gas shows in hosston and were on the money!   
cheers


----------



## maverick11

something interesting i found was ADI are tight as a ship! EKA & AUT were up 10-15% before announcement today but ADI was in fact down.  If only I had money to buy more yesterday!  I feel this is just the beginning.  Confidence in Hosston has been greatly improved.  4000ft of potential gas play and they have only just cracked the egg shell.  The gas is there and is an added bonus to the already massive secondaries.

I feel the SP will pick up a bit more towards the afternoon now that stupid people who sold today have been flushed out.

Still bargain basement prices imo.


----------



## Agentm

the ship was watertight this time for adi..i noticed the eka share price and volumes,,they definately got on board early there..

i know i will be going through the numbers over and over.. and i am in a lot of respects greatful the gdn pump and dump has not repeated so far on this stock..

the market puts a low value on the show.. but we are really only a little way in on the primary,,


there is no volumes, just quiet usual trade..


for me,  apraising everything i know on sugarloaf and adi, and after seeing the numbers so far i am picking that anyone who is on this stock is in for a massive windfall..

there will ba many many doubters throughout the next few months.. but patience and bit of guts and you will be rewarded.. 

my gut feeling is that their is a major new field is on the horizon,, and its smack in the middle of texas..

hope i am right again..

dyor research on thios stock guys,, i am seriously thinking its now the best value stock out today..


----------



## Broadside

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi guys, have copied this from a post at HC regarding gas units. I am not an oiler or profess to understanding the terminology used but the number of units that ADI have compared to GDN is very different and GDB is getting hammered. I know they have a nice solid 24m but the units are vastly different. I hold both, here's the post, interested in your thoughts.
> 
> 
> 
> Hmmmmm ADI
> from todays ann: why hasnt it retraced 100%
> 
> ADI has what? 20% interest in the well.
> 
> Total gas readings peaked at 295 units from a background of about 30 units, and chromatography
> indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and
> trace butane (C4).
> 
> from what i recall GDN has readings
> 
> Gas (methane and ethane with trace propane) was present at levels of up to 2,300 units.
> Connection gas ranges from 2,000 to 3,300 units.
> Background gas has increased 40-fold to consistent levels of 500-900 units.
> Trip gas ranges up to 3,520 units.
> All gas levels are highly significant.
> 
> mate this is absolutely mental....i hold
> 
> 
> 
> Fortune favours the brave.




I'd be interested in comments too, 3% gas but is this significant in itself or more of a pointer towards what may lie below?


----------



## Agentm

i agree broadside..

3% is a trickle..  and there is a long way to drill..

i think the understandings they drew on the hosston sands has been confirmed..

they expected the sands to bee a  hyrocarbon pathway..

they expected the fault to be a cause for the sands to be hydrocarbon rich..
they know the seal was intact, as they are getting gas shows..

so what you se in the seismics is what they are seeing in the logs.. gas..

firrst find is 3%ish

now i dont expect the gas show to be the last.. my expectations are for the already confrimed gas shows to increase, in size and volume..


with 5% porosity and possible fracing they predicted 800 BCF...

currently they are just into the sands and we have what they expected,, 

i cant believe the one show is all there is.. i am convinced theywouldnt drill on a play that small,, i believe the plays they are drilling for are yet to come..


----------



## Broadside

it is very encouraging to encounter gas at the top of the formation with 95% of the target still to come


----------



## Agentm

usually dont post other peoples posts,, but this is a good point to consider..




> Subjectre: adi aut eka news Stock Code ADI - ADELPHI ENERGY LIMITED
> Posted 09/11/06 14:18 Posted by oilie
> 
> In evaluating gas shows, which are controlled to a great extent by the weight of the mud in the hole, the important thing to examine is the level of the peak against what is termed "background" gas. In this case ADI has reported an increase in gas levels in the mud of about ten times background which is significant. Unfortunately they did not report the lithology associated with the gas show or whether there was an increase in drilling rate which is an indicator of porosity in the reservoir.
> It is hard therefore to properly evaluate the significance of the announced shows





i hope ollie doesnt mind the repost,, but its important to think about how far they are down and what they can and cant accurately measure..

i believe the price rise so far is genuine,, no ramping (besides me, the obvious one)..  but i have to say i am extremely pleased today..

the fact that all the condtions for the gas to be present are now proven..  now its time to drill away into the play and get as much info about the sands as they can..

if the plays are there.. this becomes a massive undertaking,, you need the biggest rigs around to drill this,, and somehow i feel the likes of texas crude can deliver on that score,, if we were adi on its own i feel the probability of infistructure assistance and development wells availability may be on a different catagory.. mr fluor is mr action.. i am certain he could muster what is needed to make this potential new field play into a major success..IMHO

we have to expect the daily reports are now how we get the news..

obviously the news comes through early, and if you in perth,, if you see the lights on in ADI offices nice and early then you know we are in for a great day!!

the only sour note today was the 400,000 break away trade this morning at EKA.. for me that didnt make me confident of the directors there..

my money is on hosston sands,, last week i was happy for the secondaries getting me $1.20...   now i get the feeling we are in different territory..

do you maths if your selling at the moment.. theres a lot hidden in the logs and a lot left off the reports..  look at other indications of investors jumping off.. so far i think the ship is intact and sailing away at a great pace..


----------



## Broadside

with regard to breakaway on EKA I posted this on SS Agent M:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"if someone heard news ahead of an announcement they would buy all the partners, not just EKA...EKA is illiquid so would be easier to get into one of the others without impacting share price

so I think EKA is innocent, it was just ordinary buying, don't forget they are spudding a prospective Turkish field in a week or so

Sugarloaf partners don't leak in contrast to GDN....GDN leaked at 30 cents, ran over a buck and has been relentless sold down this week, then today they disappoint with their announcement...expectations too high for too many."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

my point is, if an insider heard news he would buy into whatever stock had the best exposure and would impact the price the least.  I think it was buying into EKA because spud of Turkey well is in "early November" which could be any day now.


----------



## Agentm

what i found interesting was the price jump,, which after the announcement sorta stayed,, then adi and AUT caught up,, 400,000 shares before and only 200,000 since..  someone really wanted to get on board..


i thought the volume was mega compared to the previous days.. anyways,, its over and they may make some good gains..

it was noticed by homer first,, then suddenly the halts and then the release.. all conjecture and probably way off by me... i still feel the differences if the SP is not equivilent to the percentage each partner has in the field,, my opinion eka is way over the odds,, maybe i see it wrong.. but adi and AUT have basically nearly double the percentage on the fields and plays.. yet their prices stand closer together than what i can understand??

my thoughts would be if AUT ADi is 68.. then EKA would be half plus a few cents..?? perhaps .36 or  .38...  

there are a swag of options on eka and AUT..  i thought adi had the best exposure in the shares vs value stakes??  just an observation,, i dont know the hard facts yet as i have not done the maths.. but ball park i see eka has achieved a far greater position, and increase in value on the growth stakes than ADI and AUT so far....

any idea how to calculate this easier??? i saw a broker report a while ago,, gave ratios..


----------



## Broadside

Strachan Corporate valuation matrix (from report on Adelphi website)

Company EquityWI  Current Price Discovery Value cps Leverage% Risk adj Value
cps

ADI 20.0% 31 619 1996% 88
AUT 20.0% 50 342 683% 49
EKA 12.5% 25 408 1633% 58

so ADi leverage (when it was 31 cents) about 20 fold
EKA (when 25 cents) 16 fold

since then both companies have doubled (more or less)


----------



## nioka

There is still a long way to go yet, over 2600ft. They went 116ft in the last 24 hours. They may not even make it by the end of the month. It should be a good christmas present but don't start spending the profit yet.


----------



## Agentm

td is not determined, its a hypothetical..

with the seismic out the snds could be 1000' further down or more.. they will drill until they have either passed through the entire sands or best case senario they will drill until they are forced to stop..

dont wish for td.. as its likely to mean the well is not productive enough and needs to be fraced as the porosity isnt up to speed..

my wish is for massive pressure kicks and a drilling halt..

if the seismics are correct, i cant see them making it through..

today was the start of the news,, look at the report and notice they say "gas indications!!"  not gas shows or gas plays as in austin..

so what does it mean??? it means they are on the hosston sands and its gas rich,, now they are onto the bigger plays.. i expect nothing else except reports of bigger and bigger plays,, they have yet to be incorrect on anything they stated they were looking for,, so from today on i am begining to believe the hosston play is more than just a pipe dream.. its starting to dawn on me that these guys were right about hosston too...

hold on nioka.. this is the first day of the hosston sands and we have already got what they expected.. now to drill away and confirm whats showing there in the seismics,, if they drill into what i see there, then we are about to become part of a company forming play.. and thats purely imho..!!

yesterday i dreamed of austin,,, now i know the austin is safe,, and theis hosston play is becoming a reality.. very exciting stuff

lets see how the next report reads.. i feel its going to be everything they expected..


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:
			
		

> td is not determined, its a hypothetical..
> 
> with the seismic out the snds could be 1000' further down or more.. they will drill until they have either passed through the entire sands or best case senario they will drill until they are forced to stop..
> 
> dont wish for td.. as its likely to mean the well is not productive enough and needs to be fraced as the porosity isnt up to speed..
> 
> my wish is for massive pressure kicks and a drilling halt..
> 
> if the seismics are correct, i cant see them making it through..
> 
> today was the start of the news,, look at the report and notice they say "gas indications!!"  not gas shows or gas plays as in austin..
> 
> so what does it mean??? it means they are on the hosston sands and its gas rich,, now they are onto the bigger plays.. i expect nothing else except reports of bigger and bigger plays,, they have yet to be incorrect on anything they stated they were looking for,, so from today on i am begining to believe the hosston play is more than just a pipe dream.. its starting to dawn on me that these guys were right about hosston too...
> 
> hold on nioka.. this is the first day of the hosston sands and we have already got what they expected.. now to drill away and confirm whats showing there in the seismics,, if they drill into what i see there, then we are about to become part of a company forming play.. and thats purely imho..!!
> 
> yesterday i dreamed of austin,,, now i know the austin is safe,, and theis hosston play is becoming a reality.. very exciting stuff
> 
> lets see how the next report reads.. i feel its going to be everything they expected..



----------------------------
Neither ADI nor AUT regarded the Ann as Price Sensitive though EDA did as it happens. In fact we haven ´t had a PS Drilling update since Sligo


----------



## cicak_kupang

This has been a fantastic start to the HS.  Have been watching the ARQ sp, no movement yet.  Like someone mentioned above, ARQ with a 25% stake in ADI, is a great way into the delites on offer from SL.  May not see impact on ARQ sp till full wire line loggiung done and reported at end of drilling.  So with ARQ at $1.50, it prob represents a good buy too..
Lets see what the comming weeks bring.......


----------



## fflintoff

stiger said:
			
		

> It'll be interesting to see what eme is doing tonight inLondon.Cheers



-----------------------------------------------------------------
EME currently up 30%. Not too shabby.

EME   EMPYREAN ENERGY PLC ORD 0.2P 


EMPYREAN | Currency GBX 
All data delayed by at least 15 minutes   

As at 09-Nov-2006 11:27:57   
64.000  +14.50 +29.29%


----------



## stewart3250

eme finished up approx 22%, all looking very good, hope for more news tonight, I like the fact we have just entered Hosston and struck gas.

AgentM, would like to ask you a few questions, will leave my email below, to do with eme and Adelphi but probably best i dont post on here, I have posted before and from UK.

simstew@btinternet.com


----------



## Broadside

more gas 

Sugarloaf-1 Gas Indications During Drilling Continue
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 9 November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at 18,476 feet (5,633 metres).
Continuing gas indications over an aggregate of 70 feet (21 metres) were obtained while drilling between 18,320 feet and 18,445 feet. Total gas readings peaked at 326 units from a background of about 40 units and chromatography indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2) and propane (C3).
The economic significance of these gas indications will not be known until wire-line logs, programmed to be run after the well has reached total depth, have been interpreted and flow testing, if warranted, has been evaluated.
Drilling is continuing towards proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres).
Participants in the Sugarloaf-1 well are:
Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc. 20.0%
Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al 41.5%
Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd 20.0%
Eureka Energy Ltd 12.5%
Empyrean Energy plc 6.0%
For further information please contact Chris Hodge or Alex Forcke on 08-9263 4600 or info@adelphienergy.com.au
Yours faithfully


----------



## nioka

stiger said:
			
		

> It'll be interesting to see what eme is doing tonight inLondon.Cheers



A google search on empyrean energy will get you the trading results ( with a 20 min delay). I usually check them out each night.


----------



## Agentm

all good news!!


keep buying if you can,, the stock is dirt cheap now for what they are finding!!
pressure is increasing each day!! 


nice..


----------



## Agentm

its hard to give yourself a reason to sell when potentially the shares are worth $6  at 800 BCF  and if its 1.5 TCF which is the lowest the sands can produce at,, then its potentially $12.. 

dont expect the shares are going to trade at .30 ever again..


----------



## Agentm

i dont see any reason why the reports wont be more or less daily, and the reports may contain much the same if not way more than these two initial shows..look at the seismics and you really can imagine they will suudenly dry up.. what is shown there has been found exactly by texas crude as expected..

i cant fortell the future of sugarloaf,, but i look everyday for the evidence to present itself to doubt the wells claims.. i always research and check..

i cant discount the shows, i cant look at it any other way except to say that these guys have delivered.. its the real deal.. there is ample evidence to state that the hosston sands are gas rich,, and its starting to become evident that the initial primary is a reality..  as they drill through it they will get better and better readings i presume.. and hope!!

anyone selling today?


----------



## HOMER J

Hi Agentm, have been out all mornig and just saw the good news. your right in saying that so far texas crude have been spot on with everything, and with gas shows at the top of hosston i certainly wont be selling any of mine until they tell us exactly what is there (including the secondaries). Usually the weekends fly but this one might drag on a little   bring on monday!

cheers


----------



## mildew79

selling?? you'd have to be mad!!! ha ha ha. you are a funny chap agentm. only a couple of hundred feet in with multiple gas shows already... even if hossten is dry the speculation should take ADI over a dollar in the next few days. im looking forward to the closing rally on this one! everyone will want to hold for the weekend! 

It was one of your initial posts that got me interested on this one agentm.


----------



## Dukey

Guys n Gals .... I gotta say - it's a real nice feeling to be in on this one. Even for my measly amount. Let the  band play and the beer flow!
:band      :bier:

Obviously theres a long way to go for ADI and all of us investors - but there's no denying - it's looking pretty damn fine now and collectively - we've done well. Thanks to all who've generously shared info, ideas and enthusiasm to all and sundry!!


The power of ASF is awesome.
yeehah...imp:

-dukey


----------



## Agentm

although i hate having to celebrate,, i feel the urge to buy another fine shiraz and chill out and enjoy the evening..


my call this week is that we can expect everything that texas crude has promised to be delivered..

couchy said 15 years in the making..   imagine having this one on ice for 15 years and then it becomes what it is today


----------



## fflintoff

With the exception of 5ft ( 18320ft - 18315ft ) they have a continuous aggregate shows section of 149ft over this first 48 hours period.


----------



## HOMER J

interesting post on HC i thought people might like to read. note yesterdays announcement (friday 10th) said they were drilling ahead at 18476 feet with more gas indications between 18320 and 18445 feet..... :   




--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seems like Charles Couch is posting again. From the Empyrean thread :-
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Safiande - 10 Nov'06 - 18:06 - 17416 of 17437 


I ´ve checked out this post which originated from "represent" on the iii thread & I believe that it is 100% genuine. 8ft per hour is about 180ft per day allowing for a spot of down time so the depth of 18636ft seems to be bang up to date i.e. early morning 10 Nov ( TX ). It means further gas shows to at least 18580ft so the gas sections seem to be fairly continuous over the first 72 hours of drilling - Shows on 9 Nov until 18,445 feet.
Also might mean that Couch feels less gagged as the news is filtering into the public domain.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------


bigloz - 10 Nov'06 - 15:22 - 17295 of 17404


found this on iii


I RECIEVED THIS FROM COUCH OIL:

Drilling ahead at 18636’ – 8 FPH – 15.1 ppg MW – 210U BGG

GAS SUMMARY

METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529

i HOPE THIS HELPS


----------



## conman

My cheeks are sore from the massive grin that ive had since thursday.  

Are there any experts out there who can convert the numbers above (God-bless Couch) into laymans?  What are the units?  This Sugar baby is looking sweet...I love it.

Good-luck adn dont sell to cheap this is going to be worth a fortune.


Conman

PS Just in terms of couch's authenticity...would he really be making these sorts of announcemetns. I thought his tongue would have been surgically removed by AUT ect about 3weeks ago?


----------



## tarzanhey

conman said:
			
		

> My cheeks are sore from the massive grin that ive had since thursday.
> 
> Are there any experts out there who can convert the numbers above (God-bless Couch) into laymans?  What are the units?  This Sugar baby is looking sweet...I love it.
> 
> Good-luck adn dont sell to cheap this is going to be worth a fortune.
> 
> 
> Conman
> 
> PS Just in terms of couch's authenticity...would he really be making these sorts of announcemetns. I thought his tongue would have been surgically removed by AUT ect about 3weeks ago?




The new couch quotes do seem real - will do a bit more digging into it over the weekend. What a Feeling!!!!!  EME finally awakened in UK starting to move fast as well. I expect some press attention this weekend - Like possibly the largest O&G find in the Onshore USA for 20 years - Dream on guys - it is happening. cheers


----------



## fflintoff

tarzanhey said:
			
		

> The new couch quotes do seem real - will do a bit more digging into it over the weekend. What a Feeling!!!!!  EME finally awakened in UK starting to move fast as well. I expect some press attention this weekend - Like possibly the largest O&G find in the Onshore USA for 20 years - Dream on guys - it is happening. cheers



------------------------------
Tarzanhey,
Can you confirm the C1 Methane figure of 60360 units? If so we are millionaires!


----------



## kevro

Hi Fflintoff, I'm thinking it might be a typo because if you look at the figures on the right which I suspect are the depth of hole at the time, it seems to be missing a digit. That may or maynot be part of the C1 reading. Hope I'm wrong

METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529


----------



## eckart

Re: Couch numbers?

To calculate Hydrostatic pressure using couch numbers =
18636ft deep x 15.1 pounds per gallon x 0.052 = 14632 psi

Do we have any experts here to check my calculations. 

My understanding is that blow out preventers shut in earlier then that?

Not sure if I am stabing in the dark or we may have some very high pressures down the hole? Hope this thing is not going to blow.


----------



## eckart

Re: Couch numbers

The readings that couch is giving seem consistant with other deep gas wells
Methane 94%
Ethane 5%
Propane 0.01%
So if the readings are 60360 units against 40 units background    
My concern is the high MW required. 15ppg is cement slurry.


----------



## fflintoff

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi Fflintoff, I'm thinking it might be a typo because if you look at the figures on the right which I suspect are the depth of hole at the time, it seems to be missing a digit. That may or maynot be part of the C1 reading. Hope I'm wrong
> 
> 
> METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
> ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
> PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529



------------------------------
kev,
Ignore the RL result earlier. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
On topic the depth is a typo but the C1 figure could be correct. From the Empyrean board.

"There isn't an anomaly in the readings they are well within the range of the previous logs. That's not gas units it looks more like the ppm similar to the Austin chalks. I don't know how reliable that information is or the source, but it would fit into the previous readings from the secondary targets, some of which went off the chart i.e. in excess of 100k ppm. We'll soon see on monday how accurate that is if there is an announcement of significant further gas shows. Its possible for sandstone to maintain porosity as high as 16% but I've no idea where that figure is coming from. If we get at least a further 70ft i.e. 200-300ft and any mention of good porosity or pressure and we can start to smile quite broadly. A massive find here and EME has room to travel and travel fast even at a 6% wi. If we are heading in the direction of p10 we can all celebrate to sitting on a potential milti tcf target. £1 would only be for starters. Flow potential of 500boepd net to EME and we'll be on fire. Not without risk until flow tested, but the more units of gas and gas shows the better at this stage, we're still tarvelling rosy at this time. If couchy is verified again on monday from Oz partners we should look forward to a good week, obscene profits and a bit of the old vertical."


----------



## Agentm

couchy report is difficult to understand. 

i look at it and read it all different ways and get all sorts of wierd figures from it.. i cant make sense of it.. 

its sometimes hard to focus on why i invested in adi.. i did it for the secondries,, and thats where i keep my ultimate faith in so far.. but the hosston sands are creating a great deal of conjecture and excitement..

monday will tell us if the news and rumours are credible, and despite the unmistakable significance of the gas shows in the primary, its still early days.. if couchys gas shows put this well in the P30 range then time will soon tell us, but many factors still have to come into play.. 

will the price fly on speculation or remain solid as it has on the more known facts...


monday will deliver answers even if no further announcement are made..

i hope for the best like everyone, but i urge caution on the couchy announcement,, i have not seen it posted in its entirety, and i have not heard anywhere where it came from or was it genuine..

these posts are some from Uk i have noticed



UPDATE---having encountered very little resistance at the 2 upper areas of interest, it was thought necessary to move on on to the lower primary area of interest which to my delight was showing clear signs of condensate, this area was first reached at 00:00AM on saturday 11/11/06 having aproached from a number of angles over a 4 hour period it was decided to remove all tackle and allow levels to increase back to there original state before comencing any further penetrative options. Confirmed as a gusher @ 00:45 also after the curry gas levels increased dramatically, and a burn off flare was deemed necessary. no semi permeable membrane was used due to the partners foresight in taking necessary precautions. Needless to say this is just the first of what looks likely to be many productive sessions, the partner as now left moving ahead at an increased 9ft per hour so is likely to be at target just in time to start the return journey by Monday 8AM 

Jackohelp,
Orignal was posted on here by "Represent " at 15.12 yesterday afternoon.

DRILLING UPDATE 
represent 
15 12 Fri 
I RECIEVED THIS FROM COUCH OIL:

Drilling ahead at 18636’ – 8 FPH – 15.1 ppg MW – 210U BGG

GAS SUMMARY

METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529

i HOPE THIS HELPS.


looking forward to monday in any case!!

cheers


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> couchy report is difficult to understand.
> 
> i look at it and read it all different ways and get all sorts of wierd figures from it.. i cant make sense of it..
> 
> its sometimes hard to focus on why i invested in adi.. i did it for the secondries,, and thats where i keep my ultimate faith in so far.. but the hosston sands are creating a great deal of conjecture and excitement..
> 
> monday will tell us if the news and rumours are credible, and despite the unmistakable significance of the gas shows in the primary, its still early days.. if couchys gas shows put this well in the P30 range then time will soon tell us, but many factors still have to come into play..
> 
> will the price fly on speculation or remain solid as it has on the more known facts...
> 
> 
> monday will deliver answers even if no further announcement are made..
> 
> i hope for the best like everyone, but i urge caution on the couchy announcement,, i have not seen it posted in its entirety, and i have not heard anywhere where it came from or was it genuine..
> 
> these posts are some from Uk i have noticed
> 
> 
> 
> UPDATE---having encountered very little resistance at the 2 upper areas of interest, it was thought necessary to move on on to the lower primary area of interest which to my delight was showing clear signs of condensate, this area was first reached at 00:00AM on saturday 11/11/06 having aproached from a number of angles over a 4 hour period it was decided to remove all tackle and allow levels to increase back to there original state before comencing any further penetrative options. Confirmed as a gusher @ 00:45 also after the curry gas levels increased dramatically, and a burn off flare was deemed necessary. no semi permeable membrane was used due to the partners foresight in taking necessary precautions. Needless to say this is just the first of what looks likely to be many productive sessions, the partner as now left moving ahead at an increased 9ft per hour so is likely to be at target just in time to start the return journey by Monday 8AM
> 
> Jackohelp,
> Orignal was posted on here by "Represent " at 15.12 yesterday afternoon.
> 
> DRILLING UPDATE
> represent
> 15 12 Fri
> I RECIEVED THIS FROM COUCH OIL:
> 
> Drilling ahead at 18636’ – 8 FPH – 15.1 ppg MW – 210U BGG
> 
> GAS SUMMARY
> 
> METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
> ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
> PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529
> 
> i HOPE THIS HELPS.
> 
> 
> looking forward to monday in any case!!
> 
> cheers




sorry to dissapoint you guys but the blue part is a joke about one of the BB contributors having a curry and then having sex with his girlfriend.


----------



## kevro

Morning Agent M, just wondering about the term gusher used before. At what level is something termed a gusher. Trying to stop my mind running ahead by clarifying terminology.


----------



## tarzanhey

tarzanhey said:
			
		

> sorry to dissapoint you guys but the blue part is a joke about one of the BB contributors having a curry and then having sex with his girlfriend.




One sniff of gas and the EME thread in UK is awash with scum - trying to short the stock down with total crap.

I posted this - Hope you find it amusing.lol

its funny isnt it when things are looking up how all the cockroaches come out of their holes to try to eat the crumbs.

that reminds me where is my bug spray?

Oh yes here it is - SUGARLOAF BUG SPRAY - THE PROSPECT BRAND - funny it smells just like gas - why I believe it is,lets have a quick look at the contents on the tin.

Methane 94%
Ethane 5%
Propane 0.01%

use with extreme caution may burn your shorts
oh good it really is GAS.

In that case where is my lighter, i am sure it was here somewhere.

Oh yes here it is.

Come here you little cockroaches have a little spray of this nice SUGARloaf Gas, thats it thats it just a little more - and flame on !!!!! 

Oh dear you are burning you short little bugs. Now get out of our ****in kitchen!!! lol

With Love and deepest sympathy to all you shorters from Tarzan


----------



## Agentm

its the gas summary that i find confusing..  

i understand the second post,, thats what i am pointing out,, people can post anything..

my interest is the couch gas summary.. is it a joke or not?

if there is truth behind it i want to see the complete summary..

i maintain the same view on the secondaries, and see no change in the primary other than its drilling away and coming up with good numbers..

cheers


----------



## Agentm

sorry kevro,,

i posted things that are both alleged as true and alleged as great night with a girlfriend!!

there is a lot of hype flooding through... and a lot of conjecture.. 

assuming is one thing,, but seeing is believing.. i want to see where these numbers came from..

my interest is in the couch numbers.. i am trying to understand its source..

can anyone shed any light on it..?? 


all couch material i have seen came from couch.. where is the complete report? was it part of a summary to investors??

cheers


----------



## maverick11

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi Fflintoff, I'm thinking it might be a typo because if you look at the figures on the right which I suspect are the depth of hole at the time, it seems to be missing a digit. That may or maynot be part of the C1 reading. Hope I'm wrong
> 
> METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
> ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
> PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529




Soemthings up with that first line... a digit is missing from the depth and not sure if those gas readings are ppm or units.  If it were 60,360 units then that is 600% which isn't possible.  If it's 60,360ppm then that is 60% which is great.  That line may be incorrect in whole though, so we're wasting our time guessing.

3203 units = 32.03% or 3202ppm = 3.2%.  So far I've seen both reported so take your pick, but from a preliminary drill rig perspective they're more likely to report in ppm


----------



## Agentm

i value you input over everyones maverick

i think it cant be what it says,, its insane..

time will tell..

stick to the stock on the secondaries,, and watch for the source of new information.. there are motives behind posts in some cases..

GDN had a director hyping the stock. what chance did the mug investor have??

be careful on what is being posted..

cheers


----------



## maverick11

kevro said:
			
		

> I RECIEVED THIS FROM COUCH OIL:
> 
> Drilling ahead at 18636’ – 8 FPH – 15.1 ppg MW – 210U BGG
> 
> GAS SUMMARY
> 
> METHANE (c-1) 60360 @ 1829
> ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580
> PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529
> 
> i HOPE THIS HELPS




8ft per hr seems a little slow, and the 15.1 mud weight seems a little high, anyone else think so?  Not ununusally high and low, it could even be a good sign


----------



## Agentm

i think the ROP slows in the shale and speeds up in the sands.. may be just a case of where it was on the hour..

the mud maybe at high due to pressures perhaps???

its a bit out of my league..

the week ahead looks sensational


----------



## mildew79

If most of you guys claim to be investors and not traders, why are you so desperate to keep informed to the minute??? i know its exciting, but you gotta realise how much crap is gonna be thrown around for shareholders to read. hossten will attract a large wave of hype as potential gains are massive as we all know!

be aware...

market manipulators shall hype this one, adding to your time to filter the crap from the truth, and they are therefore looking for a time / exit advantage should news be sour. If you believe or even take the time to read any source that is not straight from a legit outlet, you will be setting yourself up to be on the receiving end!

looks good right now so sit back and enjoy  if you got in early its unlikely you can lose money from here. fingers crossed


----------



## fflintoff

maverick11 said:
			
		

> Soemthings up with that first line... a digit is missing from the depth and not sure if those gas readings are ppm or units.  If it were 60,360 units then that is 600% which isn't possible.  If it's 60,360ppm then that is 60% which is great.  That line may be incorrect in whole though, so we're wasting our time guessing.
> 
> 3203 units = 32.03% or 3202ppm = 3.2%.  So far I've seen both reported so take your pick, but from a preliminary drill rig perspective they're more likely to report in ppm



----------------------------------------------------
mav,
The missing depth digit is presumably "5".
60360 refers to ppm not units of course.


----------



## Dukey

currently 86c / 310000 shares. (comsec)
nothing to worry about - but hope you didn't want to adjust/place orders!!


----------



## nioka

Dukey said:
			
		

> currently 86c / 310000 shares. (comsec)
> nothing to worry about - but hooe you didn't want to adjust/place orders!!



Had wanted to place an order if they were down at all. Could not even get Westpac on phone. Thanks to you both for your info.


----------



## Agentm

stocks look closely held still..

volumes reasonably low..


no ones really jumping ship.. i know i am hanging around..

anyone buying today imho is doing well.. 

commsec is annoying me as it fluctuates from friday, to nothing to today.. so i cant really rely on its accuracy,, i assume by what i do get glimpses of, that the share price is rising and the volumes light..

i hate seeing announcements then none as it flicks back to friday.. keep thinking news is about to be announced.. EKA doesnt have trades on my commsec screen when i get it working.. maybe they need to raise capital again??? dont know..


----------



## Dukey

Woh !! now 93. Doesn't look like huge volumes but some peoples obviously wanting IN!! Could it be something in the wind or just specs??
-----------------
edit: ASX site seems to confirm what i have from comsec - though 20 min delayed.


----------



## Agentm

its steady as she goes i think...  people are topping up and some are getting in for the first time.. 

every time i hear nothing i keep getting the feeling the partners are having  delay or a drilling halt or something like that..  the difficulty in drilling away at these depths with gas shows must be fairly high.. the more i research the things these guys can do miles down in a six inch space,, makes me respect the engineers and personnel even more..

still check everything and dyor on this well more and more,, it keeps coming up with strange twists and turns,, 3 weeks of delays,, striking gas in the upper primary.. whats next???


----------



## djones

*BUY*
Buyers Buy Quantity Prices
2	1,139		87			
1	8,500		86.5			
3	27,400		85.5			
3	63,294		85			
1	4,842		84.5			
1	3,700		84			
1	25,000		83			
2	20,250		82			
1	10,000		80.5			
2	36,000		80

*SELL*
Prices Sell Quantity Sellers
88	1,665		1			
89	41,667		1			
90	115,039		7			
93	72,200		4			
94	7,000		2			
95	92,295		6			
97	27,900		2			
98	50,000		1			
99	23,500		2			
100	48,201		2

*VOLUME*: 783208
*TURNOVER*: $680,215
*LOW*: 84
*HIGH*: 94
*LAST*: 88
*CHANGE*: +8.5


----------



## tarzanhey

djones said:
			
		

> *BUY*
> Buyers Buy Quantity Prices
> 2	1,139		87
> 1	8,500		86.5
> 3	27,400		85.5
> 3	63,294		85
> 1	4,842		84.5
> 1	3,700		84
> 1	25,000		83
> 2	20,250		82
> 1	10,000		80.5
> 2	36,000		80
> 
> *SELL*
> Prices Sell Quantity Sellers
> 88	1,665		1
> 89	41,667		1
> 90	115,039		7
> 93	72,200		4
> 94	7,000		2
> 95	92,295		6
> 97	27,900		2
> 98	50,000		1
> 99	23,500		2
> 100	48,201		2
> 
> Seems I read it wrong - what price are the sells?:


----------



## djones

Sorry if thats not clear tarn. See attachment.

Just post here when you want a new screenshot.


----------



## tarzanhey

These have just been posted on Advfn.

I am working so no time to check anything yet.

ENJOY



TEXAS CRUDE 
KARNES CO. TEXAS DAILY WELLSITE REPORT 
SUGARLOAF #1 V1994A 
REPORT FOR MR. R. BRIDGES / MR. D. O'BRIEN 
DATE Nov 10, 2006 DEPTH 18624 PRESENT OPERATION DRILLING AHEAD 
TIME 06:00 HRS. YESTERDAY 18476 
24 HOUR FOOTAGE 148 
CASING INFORMATION 7 5/8" SET TO17000' 
SURVEY DATA 
DEPTH INCLINATION AZIMUTH VERTICAL DEPTH 
BIT INFORMATION INTERVAL CONDITION REASON 
NO. SIZE TYPE S/N JETS IN OUT FOOTAGE HOURS T/B/C PULLED 
13 6.5 STC JW6602 TFA=.178 18177' 
DRILLING PARAMETERS HIGH LOW AVERAGE CURRENT AVG 
RATE OF PENETRATION 17.1 @ 18512.00000 3.6 @ 18543.00000 9.8 12.14083 FT/HR 
SURFACE TORQUE 220 @ 18499.00000 198 @ 18541.00000 210.2 212.99315 AMPS 
WEIGHT ON BIT 9 @ 18506.00000 0 @ 18577.00000 7.0 6.20624 KLBS 
ROTARY RPM 58 @ 18569.00000 54 @ 18499.00000 56.9 55.68628 RPM 
PUMP PRESSURE 3629 @ 18499.00000 3312 @ 18543.00000 3533.9 3522.22583 PSI 
DRILLING MUD REPORT DEPTH 
MW VIS PV YP FL Gels CL-
FC SOL SD OIL MBL pH Ca+ CCI 
MWD SUMMARY 
INTERVAL TO 
TOOLS 
GAS SUMMARY (units) HIGH LOW AVERAGE 
DITCH GAS 316 @ 18529.00000 73 @ 18543.00000 193.0 TRIP GAS N/A 
CUTTING GAS 0 @ 18595.00000 0 @ 18595.00000 0.0 WIPER GAS N/A 
CHROMATOGRAPHY (ppm) SURVEY 316 
METHANE (C-1) 60360 @ 18529.00000 14249 @ 18543.00000 32810.0 CONNECTION GAS HIGH 0 
ETHANE (C-2) 3203 @ 18580.00000 705 @ 18509.00000 1567.8 AVG 0 
PROPANE (C-3) 396 @ 18529.00000 95 @ 18543.00000 214.8 CURRENT 0 
BUTANE (C-4) 0 @ 18595.00000 0 @ 18595.00000 0.0 CURRENT BACKGROUND/AVG 260 / 193 
PENTANE (C-5) 0 @ 18595.00000 0 @ 18595.00000 0.0 
HYDROCARBON SHOWS SEE SHOW REPORT No. 7 
INTERVAL LITHOLOGY/REMARKS GAS DESCRIPTION 
LITHOLOGY 
PRESENT LITHOLOGY 40% SANDSTONE 60% SHALE 
DAILY ACTIVITY SUMMARY DRILL AHEAD - TAKE WIRELINE SURVEY -DRILL AHEAD 
EPOCH PERSONNEL ON BOARD 2 DAILY COST 
REPORT BY Mike Teas 



2.
TO: 11/09/2006 

SHOW SUMMARY FROM: 10/18/2006 


WELL NAME / JOB#: SUGARLOAF #1 WELL API NO: 
OPERATOR: TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. STATE:TEXAS 
CONTRACTOR: PATTERSON DRILLING RIG #30 COUNTY: KARNES COUNTY 
PROJECTED DEPTH: 21000 FIELD: PROSPECT V-1994 
SPUD DATE: 11/07/06 DIVISION: GULF COAST INLAND 


SHOW REPORT NO. 7 
COMPANY: TEXAS CRUDE 
WELL# SUGARLOAF #1 

KARNES CO. 
LOCATION TEXAS 

DEPTH INTERVAL: 18440 TO 18480 (MD) TOTAL FTG: 40 
TO (TVD) 

BIT INFORMATION: BIT TYPE-STC WITH TURBINE BIT HOURS-N/A 

AVERAGES: 

BEFORE 

DURING 

AFTER 

MAXIMUM 

ROP (fph) 6 11.2 7 20.7 
WOB 8 5 6 8 
RPM 57 54 57 57 
MUD WT 14.9 14.8 (CUT) 14.9 14.9 
CHLORIDE N/A N/A N/A N/A 

TOTAL GAS 81 254 153 326 
C1 (ppm) 16220 50923 30730 64306 
C2 (ppm) 531 1970 1087 2619 
C3 (ppm) 107 309 186 392 
C4 (ppm) TR TR 0 TR 
C5 (ppm) 0 0 0 0 

CUTTINGS FLUORESCENCE%: NONE COLOR: N/A 
INTENSITY: N/A CUT: 

FORMATION DESCRIPTION: 

SANDSTONE = OFF WHITE AND PALE WHITE TO CLEAR; TRANSLUCENT TO FROSTED; 

SILTY TO LOWER VERY FINE GRAIN TO CLEAR QUARTZ AND CARBONATE UNCONSOLIDED 

GRAINS; MODERATELY SORTEDTO POORLY SORTED; SUB ANGULAR TO SUB ROUNDED AND 

OCCASIONALLY POLISHED; INTERBEDDED WITH BLACK SHALEY LIMESTONE; NO VISIBLE 

FLUORESCENCE OR CUT; BIT CRUSHED SAMPLES CONTAMINATED WITH COATING 

FROM OIL BASE MUD AND MUD ADDITIVES. 

LOGGING GEOLOGIST(S): C. H. Friloux 

3.

Date: 11/10/06 TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. Spud Date: 08/17/06 
Rpt #: 89 
2803 Buffalo Speedway, Houston, TX 77098 Ph - (713) 599-9900 : Fax - (713) 599-9910 
DAILY DRILLING REPORT Days from Spud: 86 
Well Name & No. : Sugar Loaf #1 API Number : 42-355-31544 Approved AFE Cost : $6,022,072 
Prospect/Field (V-#) : Sugar Loaf (V-1994A) County / State : Karnes County, TX Daily Well Cost : $89,218 
Depth: 18,624' Footage : 148' Mud Wt. : 15.1 ppg Ave. ROP: 7 fph Proposed TD : 21,000' Total Spent to Date : $7,785,115 
Contractor / Rig : Patterson #30 Wellsite Supervisor : Ron Bridges Running AFE Cost : $4,757,483 
Formation : 40% Sandstone, 60% Calcareous Limestone Over / -Under AFE : 63.6% $3,027,632 
Max Gas : 316 U Ave Gas : 193 U Trip Gas : 0 U Conn. Gas : 0 U Last Casing : 7-5/8" set to 16,998 ' 
Present Operation : Drlg @ 18624' w/ turbine 

Casing Run OD (in.) Wt & Grade Depth 
Depth 18,622' Conductor 9" 60 ' 
Mud Weight ( ppg ) 15.1 ppg Surface 13-3/8" 68# J55/N80 6,500 ' # OD (in.) ID (in.) Wt./ft Grade # of Jts Length 
Flowline Temperature (oF) 149 deg F Protection 9-5/8" .5#HCL80/ECP1 14,480 ' 1 5" 4.276" 19.50# S135 358 11,206.80' 
FV, sec/qt @Temp 83.0 Prot / Prod. 7-5/8" 39# P110EC 16,998 ' 2 4" 3.340" 14.00# S135 198 6,083.01' 
PV, cp @ Temp 38.0 Prod / Liner 3 Kelly dn 46.00' 
YP ( lbs/100 ft2 ) 8.0 14 
Gels ( lbs/100 ft2 ) 5 6-1/2" 
API WL ( cc/30 min. ) 0.0 Manfacturer - Model STC-KP703BPX # OD ID # of Jts Length 
HTHP WL ( cc/30 min. ) 3.4 Type - IADC M842 4 4-3/4" 2.750" Jar 1 29.98' 
Cake API / HTHP ( /32 ) 3 /32 Serial Number JW6602 5 4" 2.750" x 38 1,151.15' 
Solids ( % ) 32 % Jets ( /32 ) 6/18 6 
Water / Oil ( % ) 9 % 60 % Depth In ( ft. ) 18,177 ' 7 4-3/4" 2.813" non mag 1 12.28' 
Sand ( % ) 0 % Depth Out ( ft ) 8 4-3/4" 2.813" non mag 1 30.51' 
Low Gravity Solids ( % ) 6.2 % Cumulative Footage 447' 
LCM ( ppb ) 0.0 Cumulative Hours 68.5 
Methylene Blue Test (ppb) 0 Average Bit ROP 7 fph 
pH @ Temp 0.0 5-7' 
Alk. Mud (Pm) 0.0 RPM 55+1100' pony DC, X-Over, 27 jts 4" HWDP, 4 3/4" Smith jars, 
Alk. Filtr (pf/mf) 0 --11 jts 4" HWDP, 198 jts 4" 14# FH DP, X-over, 5" 19.5# DP w/ 4 1/2 IF con 
Chlorides (mg/l) 0 16.0 ppg 305 1,284.51 ' 
Hardness - Calcium (mg/l) 0 No.1 No.2 rental 190-210 
Electrical Stability 1157.0 PZ 11 PZ 11 44 345 
Volume - Hole / Pit ( Bbl ) 1,062 Bbl 870 Bbl 5.0" 5.0" 335 325 
Mud in Storage ( Bbl ) 990 Bbl 11" 11" 
Barite on Site (Sks) 2,700 Sks 67 179 
Mud Company / Engineer Spirit Disharoon GPM 95% 179 0 # Hole Size AV ( fpm) 
Mud Cost - Daily / Cumul. $9,416 $1,000,751 3,300 1 5" 6-1/2" 254 
25/750 50/2100 2 4" 6-1/2" 167 
Remarks: 3 ---
4 4-3/4" 6-1/2" 222 
5 4" 6-1/2" 167 
Depth Angle Azimuth Vert. Section TVD North/-South East / -West Dogleg 6 ---
18,365' 7.30 340.10 621.93 18318.89 431.28 -386.36 0.81 7 4-3/4" 6-1/2" 222 
18,272' 7.70 335.20 609.79 18226.68 419.86 -382.23 2.16 8 4-3/4" 6-1/2" 222 
18,162' 9.80 327.80 593.05 18117.96 404.67 -375.21 5.16 
18,041' 15.70 318.30 566.35 17999.95 382.07 -360.98 4.34 
17,947' 18.20 329.40 538.94 17910.03 361.61 -342.75 0.44 17.5 ppg Date: 10/20/06 
17,852' 18.10 328.10 509.35 17819.76 336.14 -327.68 0.54 
17,759' 18.60 328.10 480.07 17731.49 311.28 -312.21 1.30 
17,666' 19.60 330.20 449.64 17643.61 285.45 -296.13 2.01 
17,574' 19.40 324.70 418.93 17556.88 258.80 -280.87 1.39 
17,450' 18.13 328.33 379.04 17439.48 226.24 -257.82 8.39 
Survey Tool : Mud Motor: Bend (Deg.) : 0 09/18/06 
Reported Accidents NONE 
in the Last 24 Hrs : 
Date Accident Report Sent to Texas Crude: 
Fuel Used - Last 24 Hrs ( Gal. ) : 1,157 
Rig Manager : Sam Garner / Alex Hernadez 
Miscellaneous 
Last Casing Shoe Test (ppg equiv.) : 
Date of Last BOP Test : 10/19/06 
DC / HWDP OD ( in.) : 
DC / HWDP OD ( in.) : 
DC / HWDP OD ( in.) : 
Jet / Nozzle Velocity (fps) : 
Directional / Inclination Surveys DC / HWDP OD ( in.) : 
Last 10 Surveys are listed below starting with the last survey taken DC / HWDP OD ( in.) : 
Mud 
Remarks: 
DP OD ( in.) : 
DP OD ( in.) : 
Pressure (psig) 
Slow Pump Press / Rate 
DP OD ( in.) : 
SPM 
Hydraulics 
Circ. Flow Rate (GPM) : 
Liner Size 
Wt of BHA in Air ( M# ) : Pick Up Wt ( M# ) : 
Stroke 
Rotating Weight ( M# ) : Slack Off Wt ( M# ) : 
Pump Data 
BHA Rotating Hours : Total BHA Length : 
Make / Model 
Last BHA Inspection Date : Torque ( Ft-Lb ) : 
Average WOB ( M# ) 6 1/2" - 1/16" IB stab w/ float, (1) 4 3/4" Non mag DC, (1) 4 3/4" x 12' non mag 
Dull Grade ( T-B-G ) 
Equiv. Circ. Density ( ppg ): 
Slick or Spiral 
Bottom Hole Assembly Description 
6 1/2" STC-KP703TBPXC impregnated bit, 5" turbine assm. (w/ 3 built in 
6 7/16" stabs w/ top stab @ 1.2', 12.0', 32.5' and IB @ 55.6') 
Size (in.) Drill Collars and Heavy Weight Drill Pipe 
Jt. Description 465 jts 5" 19.5# w/ 4 1/2 IF+1 jt 5" 25# for test jt + 51 jts from yard (10 
Mud Record Drill String and Bottom Hole Assembly 
Drill Pipe 
Bit Record -Bit # ===> 
Start Time Stop Time Hrs 
6:00 9:00 3.00 
9:00 9:30 0.50 
9:30 13:30 4.00 
13:30 16:00 2.50 
16:00 18:00 2.00 
18:00 6:00 12.00 
------------------
Total Hours 24.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 67.00Daily Rotating Hours: Daily Down Time: Contractor DT Today/Cumulative: 
Drlg w/ turbine f/ 18530' - 18542' = 6.0 fph 
Drlg w/ turbine f/ 18542' - 18624' = 6.8 fph 
Drlg w/ turbine f/ 18476' - 18499' = 7.6 fph 
Rig Service 
Drlg w/ turbine f/ 18499' - 18530' = 7.7 fph 
WL Survey @ 18457' = 7.1 deg @ 324.7 deg Az, survey gas = 316 units 
Last 24 Hours Activity 
Summary of Operations 
General Remarks and Additions 

TCEI Form DR-1 - 8/2006 MAH


----------



## tarzanhey

Hi guys 

I now have these PDFS and they look as legit as the ones I was sent from Couch himself previously.

let me know if anyone wants a copy.


----------



## x2rider

hey tarzan

 It's not until someone posts figures like this that you realise that you don't have a clue on much of the numbers . Any sites that might help understand these sorts of results ?
 I am holding but purely from a tech point of veiw .
 Cheers Martin


----------



## Agentm

if you add all the numbers and devide by the  number of my posts, 

then the answer is anywhere from $6 - $20

thats per share!!


now i think you should DYOR and all IMHO


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> if you add all the numbers and devide by the  number of my posts,
> 
> then the answer is anywhere from $6 - $20
> 
> thats per share!!
> 
> 
> now i think you should DYOR and all IMHO



I did not read it quite so good. Cost overrun so far 1,7M. Porosity ?. As insurance I sold some at 85c and bought AUT at 69c This gave me 25% more shares and they have other interests as well as the same percentage in sugarloaf. I still have faith ( and a fair holding) in ADI


----------



## Agentm

my post was entirely in jest..


the logs are logs,, flow testing is needed.. 

if you see the upside at todays prices then you did the right thing.. well done and i know you must have made a gain..

AUT has far greater share percentages than adi.. so consider those equations when you calculate the 20% of sugarloaf in comparison to ADI..

ADI has the cash to commence immediate and further development wells at sugarloaf.. all other partners are severely cash deficient.. 

IMHO and i dont think you should take it from me, i dont view the AUT successes in the work they have done away from sugarloaf has been anything to be excited about.. but thats my opinion and you should alwyas invest in what you want to and for what every reasons you feel the need to..  i hope the strategy works..


----------



## maverick11

Bit of a nervous sell at the moment as profit takers set in.  Volume is still quite low and I feel the massive upside here is still unrecognised as ADI is keeping this one close.  Might have to skip buying lunch and buy some more.


----------



## ironchef

Why arent they making another announcement? Is there no more gas indications?!?!?!


----------



## kevro

Hi Ironchef, I spoke to ADI yesterday and they told me they are not going to annouce everyday. That they stressed does not however mean they are not getting any more gas shows. Back to standard Wed unless something extra ordinary happens.
I suspect the gas shows have become the ordinary, they sounded pretty damn content IMO.


----------



## Agentm

i will post this.. as i did in another forum..

it was in response to couchys email that was posted saying they had 6 shows, 


i prefer the reports from adi..

what i mean by that is, they are not reporting every show, and they have indicated last week that they had shows.. should they report daily every show?? in my view that would cause a ramp like we see at GDN,, and then cause the share price to rise and collapse 50% in days.. if you know of anyone who would love this senario played out on this share, then do the right thing and also spare a thought for buyers at the peak who end up seeing 50% of their investment wasted on hype.. i am happy for anyone who invests in this share or any share and makes gains,, IMHO this share has massive upside,, staggering upside potential.. and DYOR and make sure you understand what sugarloaf potentially can be..

everything texas crude came for has been found to be correct in my view, this is an excellent result, outstanding so far.. what couchy writes in emails is not what adi is able to say, its speculting, and would cause massive headaches for the management.. so we will get conservative and completely unramped reports, sugarloaf is not the exit point for adi, they have long term plans, not only for sugarloaf development as they report in their annual report, but for the yemen also.. not a one well wonder,, new tiaton is less of a risk than sugarloaf secondaries,, so think about the implications of tiaiton making gas shows in the coming weeks also.. (scheduled late nov 06)

this share can deliver in my view so i stay in it and wont sell.. i dont see the upside as todays prices,, and my view is similar to some others,, that the potential for sugarloaf to deliver multi TCF results has not been discounted.. and until that happens i wont leave my position, and i will remain as positive as i have always been towards this stock.. i am not asking for faith to deliver a good result,, but i always look to discount the reasons i invest for to determin the exit strategy, and for me the secondaries was all i had wanted results in, in either new tiaton or sugarloaf.. my faith is still in the secondaries,, and the primaries are certainly attractive.. cant find a single reason to exit, cant see a single report to dampen or discount what the texas boys went there for..

so i wont sell, only accumulate as i can..

DYOR on this stock and make sure you understand the risks of investing in the oil and gas business.. large upside and like we see in GDN,, massive downside if the numbers dont add up..

We have 6 significant shows. Wait for the final log for final evaluation.

Nice to have a good gas show + a good gamma ray log.

Charles Couch

Exploration Manager

Oil2 Holdings, Inc

1919 Rhome Street

Dallas, Texas 75229

(972) 444-0256

Fax (972) 444-0276

cell (214) 616-3832


----------



## kevro

Hi Agent M, Couchie mentions 6 significant shows. I make only 3 declared 24m+ shows declared. Does that mean there are 3 more to be announced do you think?


----------



## Agentm

thats the speculation.. and no ones saying that what couchy said isnt the truth.. i saw another one of couchys emails on the weekend, which was speculation, but if you look at his figures against the logs posted by tarzan,, then they are spot on..

if that was a ramp for monday, it was a spot on guess by the ramapers..  and todays email has couchys confidence all over it.. 

my gut feeling is the email is more than likely on the correct side, sandy beaches who posted it hasnt posted anything that was fabricated todate that i have seen..

six shows is exciting, and they are only shows.. but it leans the same ways as every other piece of news around on this well.. its yet to have a real bad day!!!  i mean if couchy is correct, this primary is becoming bigger and bigger..

DYOR on the side on these reports, and make of it what you want.. buy IMHO i think the weekly reports if anything will just confirm further and further shows and plays.. thats all we seem to hear from couchy..

sounds encouraging in my books though.. if all the rumours are continually becoming fact.. then i am very happy with my adi position..


----------



## HOMER J

well if the rumours are true we should all be smiling around lunch time tomorrow


----------



## maverick11

Well you know, the food here is pretty expensive.  I am also walking to work so I can save the petrol money.  Another idea I have come up with is eating my cereal with a fork to save on milk.  I'm not as bad as agentm though, as I still have a chair to sit on and clean underwear   I will be keeping a close eye on things this afternoon to see if it sells down and maybe buy a couple more.  Won't care either way as I have a nice hand already - but if it sells down I might as well capitalise on the opportunity...must be a male thing   

Looks like ADI will revert back to weekly announcments now, so I suspect tomorrows will be a good one.  The more I read from sugarloaf the more confident I am of this being something really special.  Someone mentioned the project running overbudget (what budget doesn't)... I can assure you they wouldn't continue drilling for no reason...they already have their bases covered with the secondaries and hosston is now looking like rumour turning into fact.  There has been a total of 7 gas plays up until last weekend, with speculation of more since then.  The hosston sands have been almost continuous gas...roll on tomorrow.  At this stage the only thing I can't understand is you would think if they are hitting multiple gas plays, then this would need to be reported asap.  Yes, the SP would go nuts like the folks over at GDN, but where do you draw the line in terms of informing the market?


----------



## Agentm

thats the point i think.. 

how do you value continuos gas play after gas play..???

the values for 800BCF find is $6

this primary may be multi TCF for all we know..

one option is to take the shares off the market, then afterwards let the market go again once the flow testing is done..   

one thing is for sure, whatever happens the directors at adi will run it with the best interests of the shareholders at heart.. i feel they dont want a reputation that is following some in this oil game.. theres too much at stake in the future as i believe this is a world class well, and the development of the hosston sands should it be what its rumoured to be comes true, needs people with great repute and not cowboys.. so  i think they will react to whatever happens appropriately.


----------



## Lvl26

you're just guessing


----------



## Agentm

sure. 

just speculating.. 

whats your guess?


----------



## Broadside

does everyone agree that if there have been gas shows since last Friday they will be included in tomorrow's weekly update?


----------



## maverick11

Broadside said:
			
		

> does everyone agree that if there have been gas shows since last Friday they will be included in tomorrow's weekly update?




7 shows total up to the 10th Nov, 4 of them in the hosston over an interval of only 300ft.  I guess it depends whether they call "continuous gas" shows 8,9,10,11....    

I am eagerly awaiting tomorrow to see how they are going to handle things going forward.  I'm guessing it will be good news regardless.  Lets hope there are no more delays in drilling which have slowed things down the last few weeks.


----------



## fflintoff

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi Agent M, Couchie mentions 6 significant shows. I make only 3 declared 24m+ shows declared. Does that mean there are 3 more to be announced do you think?



-------------------------------------------------------
Kev,
First show was Austin Chalk at 11895ft. Now 7 different shows in this well in toto.

SHOW REPORT NO. 1
COMPANY: TEXAS CRUDE
WELL# SUGARLOAF #1
LOCATION
KARNES CO.
TEXAS
DEPTH INTERVAL: 11895 TO 11970 (MD) TOTAL FTG: 75
TO (TVD)
BIT INFORMATION: BIT TYPE- PDC BIT HOURS- N/A
AVERAGES: BEFORE DURING AFTER MAXIMUM
ROP (fph) 27 34 15 51
WOB 10 10 12 12
RPM 120 110 110 122
MUD WT 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
CHLORIDE N/A N/A N/A N/A
TOTAL GAS 32 56 92 150
C1 (ppm) 6549 11014 18520 28360
C2 (ppm) TRACES 345 1245 1490
C3 (ppm) 0 56 325 400
C4 (ppm) 0 0 0 TRACE
C5 (ppm) 0 0 0 0
CUTTINGS FLUORESCENCE%: NONE COLOR: N/A
INTENSITY: N/A CUT: N/A
FORMATION DESCRIPTION:
CHALK = LT GRY, BRNISH GRY, OFF WHT TO DIRTY WHT; SFT, SOLUBLE, MOD FRM; V/ARGIL
(MARLY); DNSE TENACITY; SBBLKY UNEVEN FRACT; PLATY, AMORPH, PDC TO NOD CTNGS
HABIT; DULL, EARTHY LUSTER; ASSOC AND INTBDD WITH SHALE AND CALCAREOUS SILTS
LOGGING GEOLOGIST(S): C. H. Friloux
SHOW SUMMARY FROM: 10/17/2006 TO: 10/17/2006
WELL NAME / JOB#: SUGARLOAF #1
OPERATOR: TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC.
CONTRACTOR: PATTERSON DRILLING RIG #30
PROJECTED DEPTH: 21000
SPUD DATE: 08/16/06
WELL API NO:
STATE:
COUNTY:
FIELD:
DIVISION:
TEXAS
KARNES COUNTY
PROSPECT V-1994
GULF COAST INLAND
Report Date: 10/17/2006.


----------



## kevro

Hi fflintoff, I might just be getting bogged down on terminology. Basically the difference between a gas show and a "significant" gas show as used by Couchie. How big is a significant I wonder as opposed to you everyday, run of the mill back yard variety gas show.


----------



## austrader02

Hi All,

Been following this forum and III in Uk very closely. Having worked for ARC for 3yrs i have only good things to say about the people there and ADI management (who are in the same office). Unfortunately i cannot say any further but the people there are v.good! Its not a company that wants a share price of $1.50 tommorow and then $0.75 the day after. I am totally in agreement with AgentM and Maverick in that that whatever targets they have talked about they have hit. From the zones they have potentially hit after drilling past 18000ft means they could be flying here! For a small company that would add immense value and the current price is only the start! A lot of posts by couch have been written - how many real i am not sure but i do agree with you AgentM that his posts and your findings do i have direct correlation which should point to good news tommorow!

Lets not forget, onshore discoveries are put on production asap in the gas-hungry US markets and ARC the big-brother of ADI would help them achieve that asap! So lets hope for some good news tommorow. I think the wirelines is what excites me and a flow-test. Over the next few weeks we will see fluctuations as day-traders have fun....people pounce on another gas zone etc. But my analysis points to one-thing.......the current price is only the start!

BUT DYOR!      

Agent M.......i do agree $6 could happen but what would need doing between now and then to make that a reality. What time frame are u thinking? I think a TCF+ would blow this price....why the market hasnt understood this is baffling!

Look forward to adding my views and making money with you all!


----------



## Agentm

welcome aboard

who can figure if its $6 or $20

i think $6 for the austin chalks.. oil and gas..

the hosston.. if it goes multi TCF instaed of a tight 800 BCF?? the sums are frightening!!

you must know i am an arq and adi shareholder, been accumulating arq early on and adi since day one..so long term..  went through magnolia without a show, so i was only banking on a secondary for the sugarloaf and tiaton.. now the primary is firing its getting interesting.. its all past what i expected..

$6 can tbe achieved straight up.. surely?? i would have thought some form of reserve estimates would have to be drawn up before that price goes on the boards.. but i wouldnt be at all shocked if the price went past $1 in the near term, and possibly a whole lot higher if confidence in the primary came through.. but i cant estimate outcomes,, i know my exit price, and it isnt $6 and its a lot higher,, but for others they all have their day, and their target price.. i sit and wait on this one.. but will never see .30 again!!!

as for couch.. all posts and emails i have seen, fake or not, are bang on the money.. so what do you make of it??

cheers tomorrow is looking good..


----------



## austrader02

You look at most of big offshore discoveries and Pluto for example for Woodside was a couple of TCF and that was offshore and the project got a go-ahead. It is marginally positive NPV but their real reasoning was the have a pipeline route and onshore plant such that other companies gas fields can tie-into their line and process their plant at a premium. But what it highlights is a couple of TCF is still marginal postive offshore for Woodside.......onshore TCF for ADI that would be mindblowing!

I think the jointventures so far have been quite reserved in their releases without any outlandish statements....and fair enough...they all dont want to say its a killer well and then realise it was tight but is it? I totally doubt it as Couch is the only one who hasnt got his hands tied totally. His opinion is that gas was seen on the cuttings and while that is common it does represent good porosity for the well! I agree AgentM that all the numbers look good but some dubious but most importantly his depths on the report match the releases etc!

My view is that we will all be happy by Christmas. I stil feel End-Nov we will be TD then completion, flow-test and reserves estimate.---------end of the year near christmas we all can buy ourselves a good present. What they have said is there.....now its time to flow it!


----------



## maverick11

Great posts daytrader.  A gas show is a gas show.   Kevro, the ones that have been reported are really just babies, like the 28,360ppm methane reported in show #1 when they first entered the Austin chalk.  Think of 100,000+ppm as significant and then throw in some oil!

I agree with agentm that this one has slipped through the radar, largely due to management not deliberately ramping the stock.  The Austin chalks are looking to be simply massive with both gas and oil and the hosston sands are looking great too with almost continuous shows.  Austin alone has got ADI covered, and whatever comes of hosston will just be a bonus.  And then there is also New Taiton!

G'night all.  Lets hope for some pleasant news tomorrow.  I'm actually quite keen to see how this is all played out over the next few weeks, but am sure it will be a great ride.


----------



## fflintoff

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi fflintoff, I might just be getting bogged down on terminology. Basically the difference between a gas show and a "significant" gas show as used by Couchie. How big is a significant I wonder as opposed to you everyday, run of the mill back yard variety gas show.



------------------
Kev,
A significant hydrocarbon show as per Couch is one that needs about 100 wells to drain. Run of the mill show needs about 99 wells.


----------



## kevro

fflintoff said:
			
		

> ------------------
> Kev,
> A significant hydrocarbon show as per Couch is one that needs about 100 wells to drain. Run of the mill show needs about 99 wells.




HaHa, Ok Freddy, I'll take the significant any day of the week. What the hell am I doing up, its 0430am and I can't sleep. Bring on the announcement. Suppose I should'nt be sleeping technically, I am at work.


----------



## Agentm

i agree with you austrader..

onshore multi TCF is mind blowing..

i am certain the market has missed the potential, and i guess its only a short time now before it comes to realise the enormity of the potential here..

gas pipelines on the acerage in place! onshsore multi TCF, market totally able to absorb the gas immediately.. this is a dream well.. one in a million..

each day more and more rumours, and each day the rumours seem to become fact.. still trying to understand when the penny will drop..

for me, my dream of a secondary was rewarded.. this primary is becoming a monster.. if the word around is carrying any truth to it, then we are in for an amazing month..

today is going to be a very very interesting day indeed in my view..

kevro.. dont need to lose any sleep,, i think sugarloaf is going only one way now!!


----------



## Bullion

Just me, or is the ann nothing special? Expected to reach it late november...


----------



## Agentm

great snowball job last week,, they managed to post all the major shows and the market missed it.. 

look back a bit further and you will see the austin chalks announcement passed everyone by the same way..

these guys know how to play things cool..  hats off to them..


----------



## maverick11

little disappointed.  there has been gas since friday, yet they say "yep, still drilling, talk to you next week"   

Talk about playing it down! Oh well, i managed to buy more


----------



## HOMER J

i dont get it, if those leaked logs were correct and they had gas shows wouldnt they have to tell us?


----------



## Jus

Well, i think they really want to play it down.... and then.... boom! rocket!


----------



## djones

maverick11 said:
			
		

> little disappointed.  there has been gas since friday, yet they say "yep, still drilling, talk to you next week"
> 
> Talk about playing it down! Oh well, i managed to buy more




If couch's reports were true then they would be in the announcement today wouldnt they?


----------



## ironchef

I bought shares at $0.89. So im down a good chunk right now as it stands..

Why would ADI not mention a thing about indications on thier weekly report? 'Playing it cool' isnt stopping the massive fluctuations


----------



## djones

Jus said:
			
		

> Well, i think they really want to play it down.... and then.... boom! rocket!




Thats the positive way of looking at it. Whats the negative way (which should be considered) that there is absolutely nothing to report?


----------



## Agentm

> SUGARLOAF-1 WEEKLY PROGRESS REPORT
> Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 14th November 2006 the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, was drilling ahead in 6  ½ inch hole at a depth of 19,150 feet (5,838 metres).
> 
> Since the last report released on 10 November 2006, the well has continued to drill a sequence of interbedded sandstones, shales and minor limestones in the primary target of the Sugarloaf-1 well.  Drilling is continuing towards proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres), expected to be reached in late November assuming trouble-free drilling.
> 
> ASX releases will continue be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material matters which require an earlier release.




i read it as that since the 10th november they are drilling away in the primary target!!!!

let me know if you see it different...

why are people selling???


----------



## djones

Agentm said:
			
		

> i read it as that since the 10th november they are drilling away in the primary target!!!!
> 
> let me know if you see it different...
> 
> why are people selling???




Alot of people would of expected a summary of what they have found so far in the primary target. Me included. Obviously nothing of interest or price sensitivity has been found barring the first 2 announcements.

It also makes me wonder about couch's reports as surely some of those numbers would of been in this weeks announcement.


----------



## Broadside

djones said:
			
		

> Alot of people would of expected a summary of what they have found so far in the primary target. Me included. Obviously nothing of interest or price sensitivity has been found barring the first 2 announcements.
> 
> It also makes me wonder about couch's reports as surely some of those numbers would of been in this weeks announcement.




given it is a weekly update it should include last Thurs and Fri's gas shows as well, but not a word.  This is the least informative update yet, they are getting tighter and tighter lipped.


----------



## maverick11

HOMER J said:
			
		

> i dont get it, if those leaked logs were correct and they had gas shows wouldnt they have to tell us?





That's just it.  They have been doing this the whole time. They had 7 total recorded shows up until friday last week and only reported 3 of those to the market - small ones too i might add.  They have since had additional shows since then.  Like usual, they are playing it down.  The price is going to go less crazy doing this rather than feeding the market the news now when they are still weeks from logging the well... like the folks over at GDN.  I was still hoping they would feed us a little more good news today afterall.

Ironchef, I wouldn't be sweating it.  If I have missed a lot of profits, yet still hold for the bigger picture, and xmas present


----------



## stereo21

does anyone know how long wireline logging and flow testing should take once drilling has stopped?


----------



## Jus

I agree with u. We are eyeing for the potential upside which needs patience... and high reward comes later. Its all about Sugarloaf, and I have faith.




			
				maverick11 said:
			
		

> That's just it.  They have been doing this the whole time. They had 7 total recorded shows up until friday last week and only reported 3 of those to the market - small ones too i might add.  They have since had additional shows since then.  Like usual, they are playing it down.  The price is going to go less crazy doing this rather than feeding the market the news now when they are still weeks from logging the well... like the folks over at GDN.  I was still hoping they would feed us a little more good news today afterall.
> 
> Ironchef, I wouldn't be sweating it.  If I have missed a lot of profits, yet still hold for the bigger picture, and xmas present


----------



## stereo21

I sent an email off to Adelphi asking if further gas shows have been encountered from press release on Nov 10 to press release today. I just recevied the following reply from Adelphi's exec chairman:

_"We only report gas shows that are of a material nature. This however does not mean that the well has not encountered further gas but it would make no sense to report less significant shows unless we considered these to be potentially of a commercial nature."_


----------



## Agentm

if you would re read the announcement, you will see what they are saying.. they are saying they are still in the primary, still getting gas shows..

nothings changed since thurday and friday,, shows and plays,, none more significant than thursdays and fridays..

now please tell me why people are selling..???

is there a rumour around i have not heard about?? 

seriously it worries me to see the price fall on a report saying nothing has changed since friday,, still getting same as before,, gas shows..!!!!


----------



## Kauri

I heard that they had a Barbie and a few beers   :bier:  at the drill site last week and that some of the gas shows are due to some of the prawns being a bit off!!  :flush:


----------



## barney

Agentm said:
			
		

> if you would re read the announcement, you will see what they are saying.. they are saying they are still in the primary, still getting gas shows..
> 
> nothings changed since thurday and friday,, shows and plays,, none more significant than thursdays and fridays..
> 
> now please tell me why people are selling..???
> 
> is there a rumour around i have not heard about??
> 
> seriously it worries me to see the price fall on a report saying nothing has changed since friday,, still getting same as before,, gas shows..!!!!




Hi Lads, Im in Hope I dont jinx you all .... my lucks been a bit average lately .......... Those selling probably got in real early and just taking some nice profits cause the report wasnt as good/exciting as they expected......  I'd call it impatience ....... I know cause I suffer from it!!! (Impatience has cost me heaps over time ..... those selling atm might have that feeling in a week or two!!   )   Give it a few days I reckon Cheers, Barney.


----------



## maverick11

stereo21 said:
			
		

> I sent an email off to Adelphi asking if further gas shows have been encountered from press release on Nov 10 to press release today. I just recevied the following reply from Adelphi's exec chairman:
> 
> _"We only report gas shows that are of a material nature. This however does not mean that the well has not encountered further gas but it would make no sense to report less significant shows unless we considered these to be potentially of a commercial nature."_




Bingo!  Austin chalk and hosston are definately looking commercial, hence the initial gas announcments to satisfy the ASX.  Now things will be left to the weeky announcments i suspect, while they do their work.

Agentm, I susepect the sell off was impatient people (i know I am eagerly awaiting too!) which triggered a sell off and stop losses of people hoping for a quick buck on the back of a good announcment today.

I am guessing full depth of 21,000ft will be reached on approx tues 27th Nov assuming drilling is 125ft per 24hrs.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they find it is deeper than this and keep drilling.  Flow testing and logging would easily take a week as the majority of time is taken in analysing and interpretting all the complex data that is recorded in the process


----------



## Broadside

stereo21 said:
			
		

> I sent an email off to Adelphi asking if further gas shows have been encountered from press release on Nov 10 to press release today. I just recevied the following reply from Adelphi's exec chairman:
> 
> _"We only report gas shows that are of a material nature. This however does not mean that the well has not encountered further gas but it would make no sense to report less significant shows unless we considered these to be potentially of a commercial nature."_




that argument gives them plenty of wiggle room if the ASX asks them continuous disclosure questions...and incidentally implies the first 2 gas shows are potentially commercial


----------



## nioka

nioka said:
			
		

> I did not read it quite so good. Cost overrun so far 1,7M. Porosity ?. As insurance I sold some at 85c and bought AUT at 69c This gave me 25% more shares and they have other interests as well as the same percentage in sugarloaf. I still have faith ( and a fair holding) in ADI



The way I read the Couch report was in line with the announcements by ADI & AUT. This morning I sold AUT @ 70c before the announcement and have bought back ADI after the announcement. I.m smiling.

P.S. Can"t work out why the shares were in pre open??


----------



## HOMER J

One thing thats is clear is the number of people loading up on the 3 jv partners at these levels.


----------



## Agentm

excellent buying prices..  they are doing well..

are we seeing the daytraders off now??


----------



## Agentm

on saturday 11th at 0600 texas time they were 18,887

then now tuesday 14th at 0600 texas time they were 19,150


thats 263 feet!!!  what year were they planning to reach TD??


----------



## stereo21

Agentm said:
			
		

> on saturday 11th at 0600 texas time they were 18,887
> 
> then now tuesday 14th at 0600 texas time they were 19,150
> 
> 
> thats 263 feet!!!  what year were they planning to reach TD??



The last report says that on 9th Nov they were at 18,476 and now 14th Nov at 19,150.
Where did you get the saturday 11th numbers from?


----------



## Joe Blow

Agentm said:
			
		

> ok  this is my big ramp for the week..




AgentM, I suggest that you familiarise yourself with ASF's policy on ramping. 

I will be following this thread with great interest and any posts that either myself or one of ASF's moderators deem to be in violation of this policy will be removed without notice.

Continued violations will result in an account suspension.


----------



## Agentm

happy to leave the forum joe..

cheers all..


----------



## Broadside

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> AgentM, I suggest that you familiarise yourself with ASF's policy on ramping.
> 
> I will be following this thread with great interest and any posts that either myself or one of ASF's moderators deem to be in violation of this policy will be removed without notice.
> 
> Continued violations will result in an account suspension.




it's hard not to be enthusiastic Joe, a very exciting prospect and the drilling is going well....fwiw Agent M has contributed a huge amount of knowledge to this thread so I hope you don't suspend him for his enthusiasm for the project


----------



## Joe Blow

Broadside said:
			
		

> it's hard not to be enthusiastic Joe, a very exciting prospect and the drilling is going well....fwiw Agent M has contributed a huge amount of knowledge to this thread so I hope you don't suspend him for his enthusiasm for the project




Nobody is being suspended.

I was alerted to this thread by an ASF member and felt a reminder regarding ASF's policy on ramping was in order. Nothing wrong with enthusiasm, ramping however is another matter entirely. 

Posts should be added to stock threads only when there is something new or interesting to add to the discussion. Nobody should be urging anyone to 'buy' a stock or to declare a stock as a 'ramp of the week'.

I felt this thread was starting to push the boundaries and was of the opinion  that something needed to be said. That is all.


----------



## maverick11

Well the SP has fallen as a result of no price sensitive announcement today.  Goes to show you there are a lot of people in this one wanting to make a quick buck.  The same has happened to our friends at GDN as a result of people too impatient to wait – except GDN has dropped more significantly; I suspect as a result of lack of trust from investors.  And I don’t blame them!  Still, nothing has changed with sugarloaf…still drilling…still gas…in fact imo it hasn’t looked better.  They are really playing this one close, evident by today’s bland announcement.  I feel patience will reward those who wait.


----------



## kevro

Hi Maverick, had a feeling the announcement might come out like that although I was expecting a bit more sugar. They are definately trying to control the hype and hysteria that came with GDN's announcements and I will wait for the wireline logging to be done and hopefully be pleasantly surprised.

One thing they gave achieved is burning a small number of fingers belonging to day traders and t+3 gang who haved turned GDN into a circus


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:
			
		

> on saturday 11th at 0600 texas time they were 18,887
> 
> then now tuesday 14th at 0600 texas time they were 19,150
> 
> 
> thats 263 feet!!!  what year were they planning to reach TD??



-----------------------------------------------------
18887ft at noon Tx Sun ( not Sat) after repairing the kelly hose so progress to 19150ft by Tues 06.00 isn ´t so bad.


----------



## cicak_kupang

Well, at least we now know to expect little till the wire logs come out. Should help put a curb on the day traders to a bit of an extend and keep the sp under control.  For thoes that sit and wait i'm sure they'll be rewarded.
Infact we seem to understand more from the announcements from what they're not saying, that what they are saying....reading between the sugar lines, so to speak.  Just sit and wait guys, all will be coooooooool........


----------



## nioka

nioka said:
			
		

> P.S. Can"t work out why the shares were in pre open??




I queried the reason for the "pre open" with ADI chairman. His response was as follows:
         "The decision to place a company's shares in pre-open is made by the ASX upon receiving an announcement and releasing it to the market. It is also the ASX who determines whether the announcement is price sensetive or not.
Yours sincerely,
Alex Forcke
Executive Chairman."


----------



## ironchef

does anyone know who "Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al" is? I cant find any information about them on the internet!! Are they a subsidiry of some other US company?? what gives.


----------



## austrader02

Hi All,

Wrote my first post yesterday regarding the prospects of this well. A little delay in responding as i am in UK.........really lacking sleep at present waiting for the releases haha. 

I think the result today was a real puzzle but in no means does it imply that they are not hitting gas. Its a riddle and the partners have spent the whole weekend writing it! I think i agree with others that they told the market they hit gas last week and rather than make every release the same they are keeping quiet. 

In addition, they maybe staying on the conservative side and pumping more mud down the hole to keep the gas down. Most people on this forum look like stayers so we all just need to be patient- its hard as upside could be big!!!!!!!!!!! I think the primaries has thrown up some doubt....also the comments about reporting commerical finds is not great but they havent flowed it so how would they know!!! 

In summary, the directors dont want a flucuating stock but a steady rise with good information. They believe in trust and sending honest information to their investors. That was the philosophy when i worked at ARC for three years where correct and honest info was sent in the releases. I think its conservative so i am holding!!!!!!!!


----------



## nioka

ironchef said:
			
		

> does anyone know who "Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al" is? I cant find any information about them on the internet!! Are they a subsidiry of some other US company?? what gives.



A "google" search of "texas crude energy inc" will give you the answer.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Does anyone here think that they hit 2 gas zones in the first 100m of the primary target then the next 1000m nothing .
Not me !


----------



## kevro

Found this intersting link to Couch Oil & Gas explaining the entire process from who to go of drilling a deep well. Interesting read for newbies like myself.

http://www.couchoil.com/Oultine of Drilling Process.doc


----------



## tonudiki

Thanks for that Kevro...a useful read. Let's hope that Sugarloaf gets to the production stages!!


----------



## ironchef

this is also good
http://science.howstuffworks.com/oil-drilling.htm


----------



## maverick11

Bit of a boring day for ADI and all those who hold.  Dropped to 69.5cps for a second there but rebounded quickly from buyers snapping them up.  It is quite obvious a lot of day traders are on this one waiting for a burst of news as it opened strong and closed strong.  Another night of drilling ahead.  IMO, at these prices investors are doing well, but I definately can't afford anymore of them!

I wish they would feed a snippet of more good news just to keep up the momentum...did i mention I am impatient?  

Kevro, great read by the way


----------



## austrader02

heyFreddie,

I do live In London but used to work at ARC Energy - ADI big brother for 3yrs so know a lot about the company and management and hence the post. I left the company a yr ago but still have friends and they all seem happy with the well to date! As always DYOR but hope that clears up any confusion! And while i do live in London, i am still madly patriotic so hope you brought the Ashes with you as we intend to claim it in the first three test and then field the school boys 3rd XI to win the last two ;-). LOL!


----------



## kevro

G'day Austrader, I like the bit about a brewski, damn I am working nightshift until 0600 Monday. I really could use one right now.

It might however clash with the ulcer I am developing after the last announcement. I am confident however but at the same time apprehensive.

Think I need an Agent M fix, has'nt posted today on ASF.


----------



## Broadside

nice end to the week   ......



ASX RELEASE
17 November 2006
Eureka Energy Limited (ASX:EKA, “Eureka” or “Company”)
SUGARLOAF-1 GAS SHOW
Eureka Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 16 November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at 19,434 feet (5,925 metres).
Since the last well progress report released on 15 November 2006, the well has encountered a gas show over an 18 foot (5.5 metres) interval. Total gas readings peaked at 536 units from a background of about 230 units and chromatography indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and a trace of butane (C4).
The economic significance of these gas indications will not be known until wire-line logs, programmed to be run after the well has reached total depth, have been interpreted and flow testing, if warranted, has been evaluated.
Drilling is continuing towards the proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres).


----------



## HOMER J

yep should be a nice day    we all know they wouldnt have announced it if they didnt think it was significant....  a lot of hosston to go as well with 3 shows already....


----------



## conman

Broadside,

Im a newbie to this so sorry if im stupid. Is it wrong for me to say this is BAD news.

At first I thought excellent there must be a significant gas show. Then when I read the ann. there was an 18ft intersection.  Now i dont know much about gas and I assume that it depends on the width just as much as the depth but it just dosnt sound very big...am i wrong?

Now the above is not that worring to me, my real concern is If they have decided to announce this intersection. It makes me think that there have been virtually zero shows since their announcement last week.

Having said the above I hold and will hold for some time to come. Sugar loaf is def. commercial IMO.
we now have the Secondaries, the primary and (hopefully the begining of) a deeper formation.

Good luck all

Con


----------



## tarzanhey

Evening all - as the ladies say width is more important!

Any find that is reported must be of value or they would not bother to put the info out.

God knows they have kept very quiet about the Austin potential - If they wanted to hype it up then they would have had a great chance then. SO if they are mentioning this it must be good - What about the ratios anyone ???


----------



## Broadside

conman said:
			
		

> Broadside,
> 
> Im a newbie to this so sorry if im stupid. Is it wrong for me to say this is BAD news.
> 
> At first I thought excellent there must be a significant gas show. Then when I read the ann. there was an 18ft intersection.  Now i dont know much about gas and I assume that it depends on the width just as much as the depth but it just dosnt sound very big...am i wrong?
> 
> Now the above is not that worring to me, my real concern is If they have decided to announce this intersection. It makes me think that there have been virtually zero shows since their announcement last week.
> 
> Having said the above I hold and will hold for some time to come. Sugar loaf is def. commercial IMO.
> we now have the Secondaries, the primary and (hopefully the begining of) a deeper formation.
> 
> Good luck all
> 
> Con




yeah that is an interesting point...I will treat it as a positive because Adelphi indicated they wouldn't bother to update the market about shows that weren't potentially commercial...so that is 3 potentially economic shows in the primary target...but I do see your point.

But anyway, Hosston is the bonus for me, I think the Austin chalks secondary will more than justify a much higher share price than we see today.   Have a good one.


----------



## maverick11

great news, especially after the fall the last two days.  This same thing happened last time too 

Austin is massive, and they did a good job at keeping quiet about that one.  Hosston has been pretty much gas all the way, but when it breaches a certain level of units and ppm gas, then it is considered significant and therefore market sensitive - a market sensitive show.  The announcment today is great, but you may also notice the details are very scarce.  Just the bare minimum.   

This is a winner guys


----------



## cicak_kupang

Geee, the sp is just keeping its head above the water after a great start to the morning,certainly lost its momentium. Checked out the 2 above liks about what goes into getting the gas/oil out of he groung, from start to end.  Very informative, thanx guys.....


----------



## Agentm

for all who dont like my posts, i wont apologise, but there are obviously many out there who dislike my confidence in sugarloaf and ADI, they have their reasons to complain, if they had of sent me a PM then i would have discussed, and i have sent a PM to the monitor but not been given the courtesy of a reply, so i cant comment on whats happened other than to say i will not change my position on the stock and if it bothers you that i have faith in the finds so far and the extremely promising results in the primary, deal with it!!!

I guess any response from me is now considerd a ramp.. many have asked i return, so for those who read my input just remember i expect i will either be suspended or warned by whoever is on this forum and for whatever reason is pissed at me. so lest see what happens. I post in HC also so idf i get booted here for whatever reason, i will post there from time to time..

I look at todays news as confirmation that the integrity off the primary is continuing deeper and deeper, so all elements of the fault, trap seal etc are obviously still in play in the deeper parts of the primary,, the readings are again significantly higher, forcing the partners to announce before the weekend as we all know the couch reports to his investors would have.

Its great to see others here have the same impression that todays announcement is positive. I cant draw any negitivity from it.

they had drilled about, 260 odd feet since the weekend to tuesday texas time 0600 hrs,, then in two days a further 284 feet and in there somewhere a show that had to be annouced under the rules of the ASX. they dont disclose exactly what intervals the gas show was.

I have to say i cant bail on this stock, even though my  position is longer than the daily fluctuations in the price.. 

DYOR on the implications of continued  and multiple gas shows in a world class primary like this one.. we know the information is conservative, but each time they say less and less..

I like the sugarloaf primaryis more and more each day, and if this is now the benchmark pressure that they have to report at, i wonder if any shows below this latest one is now not nessesarily worthy of a mention? i am not absolutely sure on what the reporting regulations are??? but i wonder if they are required to report anything less that todays readings or not? does anyone know?

lets see how long i last on this forum now!!????


----------



## maverick11

I'm not expecting too much action today, although it might strengthen up before close for the 48hrs drilling over the weekend.  I think the announcment is very reassuring but the market hasn't really responded due to the lack of details in the actual announcment.  This is becoming the norm from ADI, and it's amusing reading the wording of the announcments and how much they are playing it down.  I can read more from what has not been said than what they have said.  They definately don't want another GDN here, that's for sure.  Several hundred feet of drilling in the primary and already 3 potentially commercial shows, with a commercial secondary already intersected.

The announcement today says 536u with 230u background gas.  Compare that to thurs 295u/30u and friday's 326u/40u and todays numbers are great.  Gas units aren't a good indication of well commerciality, but if the gas ppm are up there, along with porosity (and I think they are) then this show is in a similar league to Austin Chalk.  Also notice, the readings are getting better the further they get into the hosston.


----------



## HOMER J

good to see you still posting here Agentm.... question, would you expect them to now drill deeper than the 6400m they are stating considering the target was lower than the initially thought? 
the way i see it if they have had 3 shows so far with almost half the target to drill the odds for further shows wouldd have to be decent. my opinion only.....

cheers


----------



## Bullion

SP taking a hammering... I guess I am in this longer term than expected...


----------



## HOMER J

Bullion said:
			
		

> SP taking a hammering... I guess I am in this longer term than expected...




Wouldnt say its being hammered but i know what you mean. Oil fell a couple of dollars over night which could be dragging the sector down. Cant believe people wouldnt want in before the weekend ?!?


----------



## Broadside

I like to see the price rising as much as anyone else but my strategy on this has been get in early and hold all the way through even if I see potential profits evaporate in the event of a disappointment...but so far that disappointment hasn't happened, so I am quite content for the value to be realised in time, not immediately.

However if I were a short term trader looking for a spike I would be extremely frustrated at the lack of price action.


----------



## Agentm

still not booted off yet!!

I have the view they have 1,500' of sands still to go.. the seismics indicated there were more than one zone of interest in the primary,, there is an upper and a lower.  i think we they have drilled ahead and

Since the last report released on 10 November 2006, the well has continued to drill a sequence of interbedded sandstones, shales and minor limestones in the primary target of the Sugarloaf-1 well.

Now they give a report of another show,, and no detail, if its sands or shale or what..  i think its in the sands as they never mentioned other types of plays.. looking back in the presentations and seismics you can see the layers. and two distinct targets.

today we get no detail of what they are drilling away into,, on wednesday they did. 

IMHO they are back into the sands proper, and i believe they are getting shows again better than before.. in the sands.

DYOR as usual on the significance of the show,, it may be the start of the deeper hosston plays.. all IMHO...


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:
			
		

> for all who dont like my posts, i wont apologise, but there are obviously many out there who dislike my confidence in sugarloaf and ADI, they have their reasons to complain, if they had of sent me a PM then i would have discussed, and i have sent a PM to the monitor but not been given the courtesy of a reply, so i cant comment on whats happened other than to say i will not change my position on the stock and if it bothers you that i have faith in the finds so far and the extremely promising results in the primary, deal with it!!!



I think you are overreacting a tad. If you take a look in the ZFX thread, you will see I made a comment in jest that was acted upon.

But I don't particularly care, and I am excited by it also, because I have a stake in this.  : 

Soz for any grief caused


----------



## stiger

Agentm said:
			
		

> still not booted off yet!!
> 
> I have the view they have 1,500' of sands still to go.. the seismics indicated there were more than one zone of interest in the primary,, there is an upper and a lower.  i think we they have drilled ahead and
> 
> Since the last report released on 10 November 2006, the well has continued to drill a sequence of interbedded sandstones, shales and minor limestones in the primary target of the Sugarloaf-1 well.
> 
> Now they give a report of another show,, and no detail, if its sands or shale or what..  i think its in the sands as they never mentioned other types of plays.. looking back in the presentations and seismics you can see the layers. and two distinct targets.
> 
> today we get no detail of what they are drilling away into,, on wednesday they did.
> 
> IMHO they are back into the sands proper, and i believe they are getting shows again better than before.. in the sands.
> 
> DYOR as usual on the significance of the show,, it may be the start of the deeper hosston plays.. all IMHO...



Agentm good to see you back. What we need is something from c couch over the weekend.Cheers


----------



## Agentm

yeah.. living on the edge..

look forward to seeing what news comes out this weekend.. my feeling is that there will more of the same.. gas shows that is!!

after looking at the details of the expectations of this well. its been 100% spot on.. texas crude has found gas in all zones they went for.. now for the next 1500' of sands


IMHO

and DYOR


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> yeah.. living on the edge..
> 
> look forward to seeing what news comes out this weekend.. my feeling is that there will more of the same.. gas shows that is!!
> 
> after looking at the details of the expectations of this well. its been 100% spot on.. texas crude has found gas in all zones they went for.. now for the next 1500' of sands
> 
> 
> IMHO
> 
> and DYOR



Good to see you are still giving us the benefit of your research.


----------



## austrader02

Good morning friends,

Still got my HOLD position. I wouldnt always trust Couchy ppl and if i am not wrong one of the posts here or on iii in UK said that there was more finds at 12am sat morning which wasnt announced by ADI. I think the fact of the matter is ADI is not ramping this stock and thats fair enough! I think the inital vertical on this stock is gone and we will need to wait now for welltest and logging for the next exciting phase and sleepless nights from me in UK. Its still a very awesome share as the secondaries will add so much value to ADI and primaries could be very good too. But as always DYOR! Have a good weekend and i will get back to work!


----------



## The Snorkler

Hello, I have been reading this forum with great interest. I am a former Arc employee and a long term Adelphi Energy shareholder (all staff got an allocation in the float - no discount though!) so am quite excited about this well.

As for the significance of the shows - a positive thing is the depth and pressure of the Hosston formation. Gas is highly compressible so that smaller intervals at greater depths translates to higher volumes once it is produced to surface and depressurised to standard conditions. Thats the great thing about producing from deep gas formations. Using first principles - roughly if you double the pressure (i.e. depth) you will double or triple the volume at standard conditions. Not accounting for any overpressuring of the formation.

So Im vary encouraged and holding on until they well test and determine deliverability and reserves at which case we will be rewarded or go down in flames. I recall there is plenty of gas locked up in tight Perth Basin formations that Arc discovered and havent been able to develop yet.

Cheers!


----------



## stiger

The Snorkler said:
			
		

> Hello, I have been reading this forum with great interest. I am a former Arc employee and a long term Adelphi Energy shareholder (all staff got an allocation in the float - no discount though!) so am quite excited about this well.
> 
> As for the significance of the shows - a positive thing is the depth and pressure of the Hosston formation. Gas is highly compressible so that smaller intervals at greater depths translates to higher volumes once it is produced to surface and depressurised to standard conditions. Thats the great thing about producing from deep gas formations. Using first principles - roughly if you double the pressure (i.e. depth) you will double or triple the volume at standard conditions. Not accounting for any overpressuring of the formation.
> 
> So Im vary encouraged and holding on until they well test and determine deliverability and reserves at which case we will be rewarded or go down in flames. I recall there is plenty of gas locked up in tight Perth Basin formations that Arc discovered and havent been able to develop yet.
> 
> Cheers!



Nice post there must be intense pressure @20000ft so gas shows down equate to big bucks on the surface.I'm impressed.


----------



## The Snorkler

Yeah, you can assume the pore pressure is at hydrostatic which for saline water is 0.45 psi/ft so at 20,000 ft = 9000 psi. reservoirs are often overpressured as well if rapid burial has occurred.

It is just one factor in favour for this well. Also important is lateral extent as that other fellow mentioned. I think in the Strachan report they were looking for 28 m net pay x 40 km² or thereabouts in the Hosston to delineate a 800 Bcf resource.

and then theres the excitement of well testing - all hell breaks loose!


----------



## maverick11

You must also remember that the rock strata containing the gas is also under immense pressure which is why lithology, porosity and permeability are crucial to the commerciality.  Indications are looking like hosston is ok in this respect, so hopefully no need to frac   And if you have been following this one, you already know the secondaries are looking awesome.  Hosston should be the icing sugar.  Texas crude has been backing this one for years. Have a good wkend everyone


----------



## fflintoff

Broadside said:
			
		

> yeah that is an interesting point...I will treat it as a positive because Adelphi indicated they wouldn't bother to update the market about shows that weren't potentially commercial...so that is 3 potentially economic shows in the primary target...but I do see your point.
> 
> But anyway, Hosston is the bonus for me, I think the Austin chalks secondary will more than justify a much higher share price than we see today.   Have a good one.



-----------------------------
Broady,
They didn ´t report Show No 7 at 18450ft as it was less significant than the previous two shows possibly because of the moderate sandstone mix of 40%. 
Now they seem to be right back in the sands again & which probably  prompted the ann earlier. Be interesting to see the formation ratio in the logs at this depth.


----------



## Agentm

these posts are getting better and better..

if some one at arq or adi can get the management to post here and tell us what is going on it would be so much better.. i have in mind to give alex  a cryptic crossword puzzle book for a christmas gift.. these guys speak in forked tounge..

With the backround pressures so far announced, can any assumptions be made on flow rates?? are there enough indications to point at the 20 or 40 mcfd territory?  or can these things only ever br predicted through flow testing?

just curious about what the numbers so far can give away..


----------



## The Snorkler

To my knowledge the wireline logs will give an estimate of permeability. But real permeability will only be determined by well testing. All else is guess work.


----------



## austrader02

Snorkler,

You are right on the money there mate and great post. By the way ppl i got an email from a mate after a long time and he said are you posting on aussie forums as you sound like this guy.... and i was like yes. I told him i am austrader02 and he said he is snorkler. We both are in UK...what a small world! Both ex-ARC.

Anyways, i agree with Agent M that this forum is gettin better and we all should pool our knowledge on this share and others if possible. In regards to Freddies email, i do agree the post by couch which suggested gas in 18000s range was not posted by ADI in their release. The question is does that mean that the partners feel it is insiginificant, dont want to hype it up until well-test or somone put a bogus couch release. I think couch email should be taken with care, espcially on weekends as someone might be trying to ramp up the share for monday trading!


----------



## austrader02

Agent M,

The number can only be predicted through an extensive well test. The first thing most companies do after completing the well is to clean-up the well on fixed choke position. The clean-up refers the formation being damaged with drilling mud. As the well flows, it pushes this mud out and the well cleans up. This initial flow is to generally satisfy or make us investors cry about its potential.......it doesnt give the reserves estimate.

To get a reserves estimate, the perform an extended well test at various chokes. They take an initial pressure, do the well test, then shut-in the well for a period of time. The difference of the initial pressure - final shutin pressure is used with their complex reservioir calcs to see how much reserves are there.

I think at this depth compaction and permeability is a big thing! Snorkler, if they get gas shows on the surface cuttings, doesnt that mean it is permeable then and will flow?


----------



## The Snorkler

The measurement of gas shows during drilling is quite crude. Probably a hairy rig pig looking at a froth of drill mud and cuttings. All it means is that there is gas present. This could mean that the gas is either locked up in the shale or in reservoir quality sandstone so you have to know what lithology is present to get a better idea. 

Given that Adelphi will look after the investor interest - if they announced a gas show you would assume it has come up in the better quality rock.

A classic mistake for folk is to see a big tombstone core bubbling with oil coming off the rig floor. This is actually a bad sign because if the oil is still in the core at surface after depressurisation then it is definitely immobile and unlikely to flow.


----------



## fflintoff

austrader02 said:
			
		

> Snorkler,
> 
> You are right on the money there mate and great post. By the way ppl i got an email from a mate after a long time and he said are you posting on aussie forums as you sound like this guy.... and i was like yes. I told him i am austrader02 and he said he is snorkler. We both are in UK...what a small world! Both ex-ARC.
> 
> Anyways, i agree with Agent M that this forum is gettin better and we all should pool our knowledge on this share and others if possible. In regards to Freddies email, i do agree the post by couch which suggested gas in 18000s range was not posted by ADI in their release. The question is does that mean that the partners feel it is insiginificant, dont want to hype it up until well-test or somone put a bogus couch release. I think couch email should be taken with care, espcially on weekends as someone might be trying to ramp up the share for monday trading!



-----------------------------------------------------------
Not an E Mail from Couch. Shows 5 , 6 & 7 are in the logs & are all in the 18000s ( i.e. not just the unreported show ) so you are not in tandem here by scare mongering re bogus couch releases.  
The first two shows corresponded to the formal anns on 9 & 10 Nov resp.


----------



## stereo21

The Snorkler said:
			
		

> It is just one factor in favour for this well. Also important is lateral extent as that other fellow mentioned. I think in the Strachan report they were looking for 28 m net pay x 40 km² or thereabouts in the Hosston to delineate a 800 Bcf resource.



The Strachan Report calculated that a 30 m net pay zone over only half the mapped target size (40km²) and 10% porosity could deliver 1.7 Tcf.
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/corporate/documents/Strachan Research Report May 2006.pdf

From the 3 gas shows/indications so far - 9, 10 & 17 Nov - there has been total shows over a 50.5 m zone....


----------



## Agentm

austrader and snorkler are giving some impressive posts here.

i feel the significance of the plays are important and agree adi wont report trash like whats been seen on other drills. 

My fear is that the understated reports are scaring the market a little too much into submission..

ok to be conservative, but if 50 meters of net pay is nearly double what they expected and estimated, then surely thats got to be a positive signal that the success of the drill so far is far better than they had dreamed..

this is a wildcat drill in the hosston, and a free ticket on the secondaries..  the austin chalks should be given some fanfare and perhaps some better information given to the market seeing as so much is alrady known about the play. surely a good indication can be gleaned from the austin chalks so far?

I agree with flintoff re the couch senario,, everything he has said is basically fact from what i can tell..

great to see more around that are confident on the sugarloaf drill. my view remains that its been everything that you would want from a wildcat.. and i remain optimistic as ever on the well..

cheers


----------



## eckart

Part of the ARQ chairman's address from 17th November 

"Also on the drilling front our associated company, Adelphi Energy, has had a substantial increase in share price on the back of the results from its sugarloaf well in the onshore Gulf Coast of the USA. Although is very early days, there are _very encouraging _ signs in the well."


----------



## cicak_kupang

Thanks to austrader and snorkler for thier input.  Having you guys explain what you have from a first hand industry experience is appreciated.
It should be interesting to see what ARQ gives away about SL on thier road trip, see what else we can  de-code from thier selected words.

Austrader and snorkler, what do you guys see comming from New Taiton, any expectations there????


----------



## fflintoff

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Wilson HTM 9 Nov 06.pdf

Sugarloaf production December 2007.

Latest broker report from Wilson on ARQ. Dated 9th inst but just added to their site. Interesting numbers on page 9 based on 5% interest.

 :evilburn:  :evilburn:


----------



## kevro

Freddie / Tarzan, any news from Couchie over the weekend in the UK.


----------



## Agentm

the english need their rest..

no reports of any type have yet to surface.. suggesting a very very tight ship now as they set sail for home.

like everyone i wouldnt be upset to see an ASX announcement at opening of trade, with follow up shows to report..

but i wonder what will be revealed this week for those in this share with ever increasing expectations..

for me i am happy to go to flow testing now.. i am real happy and very optomistic with the amount of shows so far in the primary, and going by an email i saw last week ADI are not reporting minor shows of any size or nature, so i wouldnt be blown away if there were other unreported shows which may be of interest.

Still believe that at all levels the sugarloaf well has not only delivered, but more than delivered above the normal expectations of what you would get on an average wildcat well.. 2 seperate fields, one gas oil according to some reports, and then 3 great results so far in the primay..

i fully expect that ARQ will tell the shareholders more then the market knows and totally expect to have a whole swag of great information to share after the meeting.. but in reality the conservative and low key responses so far delivered to the market is all i expect to hear echoed about ADI at the meeting!!

as they say.. loose lips sinks ships...

lets hope for a grand opening!!!


----------



## tarzanhey

kevro said:
			
		

> Freddie / Tarzan, any news from Couchie over the weekend in the UK.




Hi - sorry Kevro no new news YET! but we are trying and then trying some more.

Will post anything found - good luck for next week - should be interesting to see what comes up from the Arq presentation Monday.


----------



## fflintoff

tarzanhey said:
			
		

> Hi - sorry Kevro no new news YET! but we are trying and then trying some more.
> 
> Will post anything found - good luck for next week - should be interesting to see what comes up from the Arq presentation Monday.



---------------------------------------------

ARQ gave away nothing at Perth on Friday, so they are unlikely to say any more at Melborne tomorrow. 8 days to completion on a trouble free basis so the interest must be huge.
I hope they have already sourced the smaller testing rig. If not they might carry on with the Patterson #30. However they are way over budget because of the extra casing to hold back the gas pressure at Sligo. Total spend as at 12 Nov is  $7,910,170 so they might wait for the cheaper rig.


----------



## Agentm

I looked at ARQ's chairmans presentation, which is on the ASX as an announcement but still as yet on their website..

on the adelphi slide, it says





•​​*Shallow objectives have very good gas shows – require testing*



*
*​*
*



also on the slide they announce aggrigate 45m of gas shows in the upper hosston, so on the lower play they say 45m and the austin is 28m. 

on the upper austin and sligo they say logged but not tested, i wonder when the logs will be released? are they not market sensitive information?

its very comforting for ARQ to release that the austin chalks have good gas shows

it confirms the reasons for me to remain confident the well is a pretty successful operation so far!


----------



## kevro

I would love to get the week off to a great start with a nice little price sensative ann prior to open today. They have had 3/4 days of drilling in Hosston since last announcement.


----------



## maverick11

geez, gut wrenching to watch... sellers are very scarce and volume is low so far.  Looks like it will rebound.

I think ADI has been so concerned with playing this one close, that investors are becoming wary due to the lack of info being released to the market.


----------



## kevro

Its all low volume stuff really and I am sure the buyers are there, just off screen. As they have tried to keep it so low key as compared to GDN they risk the the chance of it going the other way which seems to be what we are seeing now. If the holders are not following the stock through forums like ASF they really would be in the dark as to whats going on with ADI and there down played announcements. But as you say Maverick, it is gut wrenching.


----------



## Agentm

depends on whether your a buyer or a seller.

todays is a great buying opportunity, with no news out there, even couch emails have not appeared, so its closed shop all round..

its hard to believe that gas shows in all zones and targets on a world class well like this can be so unexciting to the market.

all reserves calculated were on 30 meters of shows, they have over 80 meters of shows, so its not at all like the well has not achieved aits goals..

they logged the austin chalks and couchy blurts out the porosity,, which makes the chalks reserve potential many times more than ever thought possible. and ADI has already pencilled in two wells for the sugarloaf before they reached the primary, if they are not confident, and if you dont feel that the secondaries are worth .30 cents, then i guess todays prices must be attractive to you if your selling..

for me i see the secondaries as way more than todays prices, and i hope the sellers have understood the potential of whats available in the austin chalks, and you must factor in some value on the primary surely? how can gas shows in the primary not carry any value to a share price?

once the flow testing and logs are revealed then you will start to see a better value to the SP, its obvious that no one can tell what value the share should be.

Its the average punter out there who doesnt understand the reasoning for the secrecy and the intense use of cleverly disguised reports to the market and for those that look at the SP on a daily basis and see no reports, and have no idea of the significance of the reports released todate, that punter is the type of investor that i feel sorry for as they cannot establish any meaningful value to their share, and have no idea if they should stay or should they bail..

for me i look at the ups and downs of the SP and see it as a learning experience, it dos nothing to me emotionally as the day i sell is long from here, i have no reason to believe that ADI is not doing anything else except planning two possible wells on on the secondaries and i absolutely believe that they wouldnt be doing any such thing with out the certainty that the chalks have significant value in them,, 

i never invested for the primary, it was a wildcat,  and the secondaries are, and always will be, the reason to continue on the adi stock. 

I cant change my personal point of view on this well, as it is announced in ADI's annual report, that there is very possible and highly probable near future seperate project in the austin chalks, thats all i wanted to hear..

we have shows throughout the primary, and no fanfare and no hype,  and now flow testing in the coming months will soon tell me what the prospects are on the primary.

all i see today is great buying opportunities.. DYOR


----------



## maverick11

Well bugger me!  I haven't heard any news... So is there any real reason for today, or is it just a domino effect due to stop losses, etc?  AUT & EKA also down a fair bit.


----------



## wallave

This is the first time that i've posted on here, following agentm and maverick especially, as I have eka and adi.
Today "Tenbagger" updated their recommendation on EKA..."due to mixed results from the company’s high-risk high-reward Sugarloaf well in Texas. While gas has been discovered at the shallow Austin Chalks target which at this stage appears economic (and worth 20-40 cents per ordinary Eureka share), we do not believe the gas intersected in the primary Hosston target is commercial. There remains more to drill at Sugarloaf, but the chance of making a major find appears low ."
Also I remember reading either here or on HC that Hartleys have been advising to sell.  Not totally sure on this one though.

Does the fact that Hartleys and Tenbagger are advising to reduce alter your confidence on the further share price gains.?? Or long term what has been discovered already warrant higher prices.

AgentM,appreciate your comments.
Thanks


----------



## Dukey

It is a bit nail biting to see the price drop like this, but given the total info we've gathered on Sugarloaf here, I'm still confident. Even more so after some quality input recently from people who know a lot more about drilling than i ever will!! such as ex-ARC staffers Snorkler and Austrader. (see their posts a page or 2 back).
I think I'll be in at least until value is realised from this hole and New Taiton.
Dunno If I'll hold out till the Yemen drilling though. Sounds like dodgy territory as far as terrorists are concerned!!:rocketwho


----------



## Agentm

if you look at their reports, and the type of investors they attract, then obviously they have some weight to their advice and people are taking it as correct and selling on the assumtions of the reports. they are only in the game for massive returns, then next week they find another stock to make your fortune on.. then another,, anyone can do that.. just throw a dart!!


I dont have their reports, I dont know what they base their ability to forsee the commercial viability of sugarloaf on. its pretty good that they can, and good on them for being able to.. but for me,, i dont follow them and dont invest on their recommendations,, i follow my own rules and stick by my plans.. 

I wouldnt care if a tenbagger bought or sold the share, i just hope they made some money on the journey, thats obviously what the reports are trying to make for their clients??

I see thay believe the secondaries are worth .20 to .40 to EKA,, and EKA is a smaller partner in the sugarloaf well, I would have thought that those sort of prices would be easily matched to ADI prices, if not worth a whole lot more to the ADI share.. wouldnt you?  are people not underselling their share and bailing without achieving their best value here,, is this good sharetrading??

If your telling your clients to bail and speculate the primaries are not economic so be it.. its up to each and every one of us to do their own research and asses whatever from reports if thats what you want to do.

i wait for the flow tests and then i will see what they actually have.. I am not selling now, nor in a week nor in amonth.. but if the price keeps dropping i will be extremely interested in buying some more, these prices are great value if the tenbaggers are correct!! 

Just because a share report that is designed to make massive gains for its client reevaluates the well and says it wont make you a 10 bagger, doesnt mean i dont believe it will be one and unless they back up what they are speculting with facts of some type, then its not worth cosidering in my view..

I say DYOR on the stock, and make sure the sell orders are not for the benifit of someone else who is buying!!  it seems to me by the volumes that there is plenty around willing to buy whilst the panic run continues!!


----------



## Broadside

Dukey said:
			
		

> It is a bit nail biting to see the price drop like this, but given the total info we've gathered on Sugarloaf here, I'm still confident. Even more so after some quality input recently from people who know a lot more about drilling than i ever will!! such as ex-ARC staffers Snorkler and Austrader. (see their posts a page or 2 back).
> I think I'll be in at least until value is realised from this hole and New Taiton.
> Dunno If I'll hold out till the Yemen drilling though. Sounds like dodgy territory as far as terrorists are concerned!!:rocketwho




it is a little unnerving watching paper profit get shredded and hearing of a couple of newsletters already writing off the primary target, I guess this happens when the SL partners are tight lipped...the void gets filled with uncertainty and doubt...I am going to hold because that was my strategy from the start and I still have faith in the secondaries, and hope for the primary.  Good luck whatever your decision Sugarloafers.


----------



## nioka

fflintoff said:
			
		

> http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Wilson HTM 9 Nov 06.pdf
> 
> Sugarloaf production December 2007.
> 
> Latest broker report from Wilson on ARQ. Dated 9th inst but just added to their site. Interesting numbers on page 9 based on 5% interest.
> 
> :evilburn:  :evilburn:



According to ARQ estimates Sugarloaf is worth 75c share to ARQ by Dec07.?? I can't work out the panic, (apart from stop loss orders.)


----------



## chops_a_must

Well, if  it is worth 75 cents in Dec 07, it is probably trading at fair value at the moment.


----------



## maverick11

Hey guys, todays selldown has been disappointing and I assume there has been a bit of a domino effect which has exagerrated it even further.  Every 1c shift is worth thousands to me so it is very frustrating to watch indeed.     For a broker to say hosston is non commercial is a speculative joke!  The damn thing hasn't even been flow tested yet and ADI have already pointed out in their announcments that they are only reporting potentially commercial gas shows...in which they have already had 3 in the primary.  The way I see it, current prices are a great buy... perhaps this was the ploy, to create a good buying opportunity??  : 

The secondaries are already planned for at least a couple more wells and if hosston works out, it will just be a bonus.  I sit tight


----------



## kevro

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Well, if  it is worth 75 cents in Dec 07, it is probably trading at fair value at the moment.




That reference to .75c a share was for ARQ chops. Value to ADI I don't know.


----------



## nioka

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Well, if  it is worth 75 cents in Dec 07, it is probably trading at fair value at the moment.



That is an EXTRA 75c to ARQ share price. Should be more to ADI.


----------



## chops_a_must

nioka said:
			
		

> That is an EXTRA 75c to ARQ share price. Should be more to ADI.



Sorry, mis-read it.

If this is worth 75 cents to Arq, you'd expect it to be worth more than $2 to ADI. Why has this been taken as bad news?


----------



## kevro

Hi Chops, been a nerve racking day for holders. Bit hard to make any headway today. Everytime its starts to look better someone dumps another load of 50,000 shares. Been happening very consistently all arvo.


----------



## The Snorkler

ouch that hurts! I topped up at 70 c today :-(. It just highlights the volatility of small cap mining stocks. Not sure what to make of it. I dont see how they can write off the primary when they have the same information as we do. Can wait for the testing.


----------



## Agentm

just back from the ARQ meeting..

i see they are keen on sugarloaf, unlike todays market they have a different view on the well.. anyway there are far more informed people out there who are certain sugarloaf is dead in the primary, its just that the arq guys and adi directors are not aware of it!! i guess you have to trust who or what you hear.. and follow those who you trust.. i kinda trust the arq guys, so sorry if i disbelieve all the crap i hear today about the primary! i will wait for the official verdict..

ARQ say you cant judge, and so do ADI, they all wait for the flow testing,, and spoke of maybe stopping at TD,, maybe going further,, maybe not,, also said they may have to do a deeper drill on another well and go right through the sands end to end, i guess they do that if the primary is commercial and they cant go as far as they would like this drill.. so if they dont achieve all their objectives this time, they certainly can in the future that is.. its real deep, real tricky and day to day stuff on sugarloaf..

i know the whole market has lost faith in the shows, and are drawing comparisons with other wells flows and making very dramatic conclusions.. its interesting that arq and adi know nothing of these theories, but if someone can tell me how you can call a well like that at this stage, then please let me know, i am interested in researching it further.. just so i can learn more about how to make a call on a well as a failure in a zone without knowing anything about porosity, or having the wireline logs and without seeing the flow tests..

I wonder who really did prosper from the scare mongering about today.. its all daytrader folly i guess.. it worries me none as i dont look at todays prices as the correct price for the success of the secondaries,, and when arq or adi start writing off the primary, then i think the price has a reason to tumble, but someone out there was making a real good go of getting their hands on all the stock that was squandered on the exchange today.. good luck to those selling and good luck to those clever enough to take advantage of the great buying prices.. 

i left the ARQ meeting without any doubt about sugarloaf, not that they are saying anything is a success, but not a nervous flinch, not an incling of a hint of lack of focus on what sugarloaf is about, what the objectives of the drill are, and not at all giving anything but praise towards texas crude for the fine work they are doing.. 

i think a few at arq and adi are today at all worried about SL. they seem focused on getting the job finished, getting it wirelined and cased, then flow tested.. 

i guess 80 meters of gas shows on a wildcat is still in todays terms considered a failure by some, but for me, i wait for the results and then once i am told what is commercial and what isnt and see the price go to the level it should, then i consider selling, and only then.. but thats just me!! everyone else seems to see it different! my position is long and remains..


----------



## stiger

Agentm said:
			
		

> just back from the ARQ meeting..
> 
> i see they are keen on sugarloaf, unlike todays market they have a different view on the well.. anyway there are far more informed people out there who are certain sugarloaf is dead in the primary, its just that the arq guys and adi directors are not aware of it!! i guess you have to trust who or what you hear.. and follow those who you trust.. i kinda trust the arq guys, so sorry if i disbelieve all the crap i hear today about the primary! i will wait for the official verdict..
> 
> ARQ say you cant judge, and so do ADI, they all wait for the flow testing,, and spoke of maybe stopping at TD,, maybe going further,, maybe not,, also said they may have to do a deeper drill on another well and go right through the sands end to end, i guess they do that if the primary is commercial and they cant go as far as they would like this drill.. so if they dont achieve all their objectives this time, they certainly can in the future that is.. its real deep, real tricky and day to day stuff on sugarloaf..
> 
> i know the whole market has lost faith in the shows, and are drawing comparisons with other wells flows and making very dramatic conclusions.. its interesting that arq and adi know nothing of these theories, but if someone can tell me how you can call a well like that at this stage, then please let me know, i am interested in researching it further.. just so i can learn more about how to make a call on a well as a failure in a zone without knowing anything about porosity, or having the wireline logs and without seeing the flow tests..
> 
> I wonder who really did prosper from the scare mongering about today.. its all daytrader folly i guess.. it worries me none as i dont look at todays prices as the correct price for the success of the secondaries,, and when arq or adi start writing off the primary, then i think the price has a reason to tumble, but someone out there was making a real good go of getting their hands on all the stock that was squandered on the exchange today.. good luck to those selling and good luck to those clever enough to take advantage of the great buying prices..
> 
> i left the ARQ meeting without any doubt about sugarloaf, not that they are saying anything is a success, but not a nervous flinch, not an incling of a hint of lack of focus on what sugarloaf is about, what the objectives of the drill are, and not at all giving anything but praise towards texas crude for the fine work they are doing..
> 
> i think a few at arq and adi are today at all worried about SL. they seem focused on getting the job finished, getting it wirelined and cased, then flow tested..
> 
> i guess 80 meters of gas shows on a wildcat is still in todays terms considered a failure by some, but for me, i wait for the results and then once i am told what is commercial and what isnt and see the price go to the level it should, then i consider selling, and only then.. but thats just me!! everyone else seems to see it different! my position is long and remains..



Lighten up ! We'll know a lot more shortly,those people have skill trust them .cheers.


----------



## Agentm

no, your real estate is too dear..


i went to the melbourne meeting of ARQ at the rialto.. 

i think they do sydney next.. check the website, they did perth on friday..
i see EME didnt suffer the same fate as ADI did as harshly.. i wonder how the SP will go tomorrow.. more bad news i guess as the sheep get led to the slaughter by the all knowing advisers..

who is doing all the buying then?? i wonder????


----------



## austrader02

Hi All,

Woke up this morning in London and saw the share price get smashed.....why?........got no idea as there is no indication yet from ADI that its a bummer or a flowing dynamite! I would like to explain few things on how i feel the well is drilled. Having gas shows by no means its porous due to the fact as when u drill through the rock you are technically breaking it up into pieces and hence increasing its porosity!

First they will run wireline logs to see the extent of the reservoir and its permeability and porosity. Permeability means how well the gas is connected in the rock(i think) and porosity as we know is its flow capability. The partners will run the logs which will enable them to see its flowing potential. If in their views its good, then they will complete the well and perforate - perforate is shooting bullets into the zones u feel which will be most productive to let it flow. 

I think at this stage all they did was report shows, but they dont know and we dont know if it will flow. Depth here is a big issue as there is a lot of compaction and that means its porosity cannot be guaranteed. I have heard of wells where the oil structure was so big but the porosity and permeability was non-existent!

Its just a subjective view to the situation. We all have been quite excited and i think we should be. the secondaries are great....primary look positive but the ADI directors cant run around saying its a roarer as they dont know and hence we just need to wait! Its playing conservative by the JV and i personally agree with it rather than they ramp the stock and then people come crashing down! If its good then we all win!


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:
			
		

> no, your real estate is too dear..
> 
> 
> i went to the melbourne meeting of ARQ at the rialto..
> 
> i think they do sydney next.. check the website, they did perth on friday..
> i see EME didnt suffer the same fate as ADI did as harshly.. i wonder how the SP will go tomorrow.. more bad news i guess as the sheep get led to the slaughter by the all knowing advisers..




Advisers & advisers. None of Ã©m know diddly. Might be right, might be wrong.

http://www.horizonoil.com.au/Press Releases/2006/November/M&A easier than E&P.pdf

“Early indications are very promising for a commercial result; likewise for Adelphi, Aurora and Eureka's Sugarloaf prospect in Texas, which looks likely to at least cover costs from a shallow gas pool.”

Peter Strachan,
independent analyst and
author of
www.stockanalysis.com.au
1 November 2006


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM

News of a spud at New taiton would certainly help SP as for  Sugarloaf no news seems bad news for alot of holders -J campbells negative views in his Jnr oil weekly- certainly didn't help as did the overall weakness in oilers.

I e-mailed J campbell on his reasons with imfo from Peter Strachan est.------------- negative Vs postive veiws


His reply-John a good gas discovery will have gas flowing to the surface under natural pressure, if that happens on testing then I'll eat my words. But background gas readings are only an indication of hydrocarbons, they don't say anything about the nature of the reservoirs. Don't know how Peter could make such calculations as he has based on info to hand. 1.7 Tcf is highly unlikely in my opinion.


----------



## sandybeachs

hi guys

like most we'd all like to see a successful outcome for the shareholders of ADI, AUT & EKA.

also it would be epecially good for the energy sector as a whole..

plenty of speculation as too whether it will be commercial or not.

you have those who are super confident and those who are a little cautious..

the bottom line is, nobody really knows until the well is drilled to T.D and tests have been completed.

as for the fall in the past couple of days, well worth looking at energy sector indicies chart (XEJ) & ALL ORDS chart (XAO)..

the energy sector chart (XEJ) is almost a mirror image of ADI's chart over the past 6days.

in as much as energy sector chart has basically fallen over the past 6days, ADI's chart is exactly the same..

my gut feeling is, the above has been the major factor in ADI's re-trace. perhaps had the sector pullback not occured, then ADI's & it's JVP's share price might be higher..????

baring any announcement, keep an eye on the indicies. that will give you a clear view of where the share price might be heading.

market forces are at work at present, not much you can do other than weather the storm..

regards


----------



## Agentm

great post sandy,  totally agree with you on this..


I am one who as you well know is very confident on the sugarloaf secondaries.. the primary is a bonus for those who have bought in on the share..
on wednrsday we will get the usual conservative news, and i expect you will get in the next week an announcement re new tiaton.. ARQ seemed to feel it was very close..

I imagine some news of further projects will also soon surface..  

interesting to see AUT trading so close to ADI in price with the stock having the same percentage to ADI on SL and quite a different share percentage..

i suspect today will be more of the same!!


----------



## maverick11

good to see investors are finally smartening up!  It also seems our jackass friend john campbell is also the Non-Executive Director for Northern Territory Oil Limited.....


----------



## Agentm

i see they are doing an IPO

he isnt an oil man at all..  has no experience in the oil..

they say the oil and gas weekly is highly respected...  come on maverick this guy is a diplomat who knows gas should spew mud back out of a well or it isnt economic..

doesnt say anywhere which oil company he worked for as a geologist.. and i cant see any reference to anything from the oil industry.. 

i still back the texas crude guys and the arq and adi guys over this mans expertise anyday.. imagine publishing a respected magazine and calling a dry well before flow testing.. man this guy is amazing.. dont think i would even cast a glance at the IPO if this is the level of professionalism he is at...

*John Campbell
*Non-executive Director

An economist specialising in international trade and resources, Mr Campbell served as Australian Ambassador to Laos, Israel and Chile and held other senior diplomatic posts in Asia and Europe as part of a 35 year career in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He also served with the Reserve Bank of Australia. 
Now a professional oil and gas sector investor, Mr Campbell is also the publisher of the highly respected Oil and Gas Weekly newsletter and has a thorough understanding of the opportunities and challenges facing the junior oil explorer sector. 

He is a graduate of the University of Western Australia (B. Economics) and Yonsei University (Diploma in Korean Language) Seoul, Korea. 

Mr Campbell was elected as a Non-Executive Director of Northern Territory Oil Limited in January 2006. He is 62 years old.


----------



## Lert

Hi Guys, My first post on these forums... Picked up ADI yesterday @ 61.5 so fingers crossed.. Hoping to add some leverage to my non performing ARQ holdings.


----------



## fflintoff

JBMMMMMMMMMM said:
			
		

> News of a spud at New taiton would certainly help SP as for  Sugarloaf no news seems bad news for alot of holders -J campbells negative views in his Jnr oil weekly- certainly didn't help as did the overall weakness in oilers.
> 
> I e-mailed J campbell on his reasons with imfo from Peter Strachan est.------------- negative Vs postive veiws
> 
> 
> His reply-John a good gas discovery will have gas flowing to the surface under natural pressure, if that happens on testing then I'll eat my words. But background gas readings are only an indication of hydrocarbons, they don't say anything about the nature of the reservoirs. Don't know how Peter could make such calculations as he has based on info to hand. 1.7 Tcf is highly unlikely in my opinion.



---------------
Interesting that the paid bashers are now starting to appear here. The above is old news that has already been discredited.


----------



## barney

Howdy lads, I could be a little biased, but I saw a few positives in todays price action ...........  Not a lot of news to get anyone worked up about, yet, the Sp rose, The volume was up close to as high as its been in a week, and I dont know whether anyone else noticed, but most of the last 200,000 buy orders that went through today were from buyers "jumping the queue" to get in at .64-.65    In other words there weren't too many buyers showing their hand late in trade ........... tells me there is still interest, even if it is a bit subtle. Tomorrow or Thurs will be interesting if the sp keeps edging up. Of course, if it goes down below .60 I have no idea what I'm talking about.  Good luck to ya's all on this one .... Barney.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Can we assume there have been no more gas shows since the last one or have they encountered drilling problems and drilling has been slow or come too a halt ?


----------



## massno

Reeelax my fellow adi'ers, I think all will be fine, this is an already proven find with the announcements and stats in line...as you would come to expect form the reputable companies involved...Really can't wait for that testing...bought more this morning at 60c...yobeauty !!


----------



## Agentm

On the gas shows issue, there is a clear mandate to not announce all shows, so we only have the shows which they have deemed potentially commercial, to warrant reporting.

Clearly there were at least 6 shows in the initial upper primary, and of them the announcements that came out were for 2 or so.

It cant be ruled out that there were more shows, and perhaps a number are not giving strong readings, and not being deemed to be significant but perhaps with some clever work from texas crude and the fracing, they may deliver flows.

Last week someone posted an email from Alex stating that because there wasnt an announcement, that didnt mean they were not getting shows.

On the basis that this well is extremely closed shop right now, I would not be prepared to wager against there being more shows, and of them perhaps some that came close to being significant but maybe fell short of being announced..

The thing about this share is that the information is so secretive, that its impossible to assess about whether has commercial potential or if it hasnt.. and even if all information was released, it still couldnt be determined until flow testing. 

As far as i am concerned, the fact we have shows and as that the number and size of the shows outperformed the estimates in the prospectus, it leaves  me with a great deal of confidence that at least the secondary shows are potentially commercial, and the primary has a chance..

In texas they do succeed in extracting flows from very tight and very deep regions, and they are very clever in engineering and getting flows with modern techniques, i wouldnt expect they would be continuing to drill to TD if the the well didnt have some potential to be commercial. but these guys have thrown everything at the problems they have had. They dont drill this deep and not expect to have to frac and do a lot of work to extract flows.
The 75 days of drilling has been blown out of the water, and I view the determined approach by texas crude to continue not as a foolish exercise and folly, but more as a professional outfit, getting it done, learning as much as they can about the structure to make sure they can determin and to either succeed in getting all they can for them to totally be sure of success, or rule out the possibility of the well being commercial.


Much has to be done from here, reaching a decision on TD is first and foremost, then working the primarys for flow.

Lets see what we learn from todays announcement..


----------



## sandybeachs

*NEW TAITON PROPSECT*

hi guys

update announcement today in ANTARES ENERGY (AZZ)..

seems as though we are getting close, about time..LOL

NEW TAITION ""Spud date as advised by the operator is early December.""

ANTARES ENERGY LIMITED
ASX/NEWS RELEASE 22 November 2006
EXPLORATION UPDATE
Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Isle-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator,
Antares 25%
The drilling location is ready and the newly refurbished rig is preparing for mobilisation from Lerado, Texas. Spud date as advised by the operator is early December. The total depth for this well will be 17,000 feet with Antares financial exposure estimated to be USD 1.3 million on
a dry hole basis.
Contact:
James Cruickshank, Executive Director, Antares Energy Limited Tel: + (61) (0) 419 903 452
For more information: www.antaresenergy.com
ANTARES
ENERGY A.C.N. 009 230 835


----------



## tarzanhey

Morning you guys - 22.56 pm over here - so evening for me.

What a roller coster ride we are having - patience and steel balls will pay big dividends imho.

I still have every faith in the Hosston - but thats me and I am an optimist.

Good luck! and keep cool! dont let your shares go cheap (at this price they are damn cheap).


----------



## maverick11

great news i think.  in 5-6 days given no delays they will have struck 21,000!


----------



## Bullion

Yes but with no news in that time I'm worried people will slowly sell out like the last week and hit all the stops into no mansville


----------



## kevro

Agentm said:
			
		

> i see they are doing an IPO
> 
> he isnt an oil man at all..  has no experience in the oil..
> 
> they say the oil and gas weekly is highly respected...  come on maverick this guy is a diplomat who knows gas should spew mud back out of a well or it isnt economic..
> 
> doesnt say anywhere which oil company he worked for as a geologist.. and i cant see any reference to anything from the oil industry..
> 
> i still back the texas crude guys and the arq and adi guys over this mans expertise anyday.. imagine publishing a respected magazine and calling a dry well before flow testing.. man this guy is amazing.. dont think i would even cast a glance at the IPO if this is the level of professionalism he is at...
> 
> *John Campbell
> *Non-executive Director
> 
> An economist specialising in international trade and resources, Mr Campbell served as Australian Ambassador to Laos, Israel and Chile and held other senior diplomatic posts in Asia and Europe as part of a 35 year career in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He also served with the Reserve Bank of Australia.
> Now a professional oil and gas sector investor, Mr Campbell is also the publisher of the highly respected Oil and Gas Weekly newsletter and has a thorough understanding of the opportunities and challenges facing the junior oil explorer sector.
> 
> He is a graduate of the University of Western Australia (B. Economics) and Yonsei University (Diploma in Korean Language) Seoul, Korea.
> 
> Mr Campbell was elected as a Non-Executive Director of Northern Territory Oil Limited in January 2006. He is 62 years old.




Agemt M, just noticed this at HC:


JUNIOR explorer Northern Territory Oil has abandoned plans for an initial public offering after failing to raise enough capital for drilling operations in Texas, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.


----------



## Agentm

you cant change the position people will take on this well. some are long and a lot are short,,  day to day doesnt bother me as the value of this share is not really in the speculative prices of this week, but for me they will arrive as they announce the flow rates and news of the logs etc in the coming weeks. 

Still 1000' to go so its still "in the primary" as they said in the announcement.

fortunately we dont have the situation with adi where is been largely held by speculators, i think the thin numbers that go will go now, as they fully realise that with or without shows the sp seems to stay around where it is currently..

its great buying opportunity if you are long,, and pity if your a short term holder as the share just isnt going to skyrocket just yet..

a few more shows in the primary would be great to boost the already high number of meters of plays..

still confident on the secondaries and hold for that value, as thats why i bought in.. 

the only obvious fact is that the shows are there and thus the well potentially has commercial shows in three zones in the primary.. they have shut down all information and no one can do anything much except wait.. or sell..

i watch with interest on how many bail now,, by the volumes so far i assume the majority are long on the SL..


----------



## maverick11

Todays volume is a joke.  Not too many people prepared to sell this close to TD and flow testing.  Perhaps a lot of traders have been shaken from the tree after the fluctuations this last week.  C'mon ADI !!!


----------



## sandybeachs

Hi guys

the icing on the cake will be another nice gas show before they reach T.D

i must say apart from Couchie, the JVP's have done a great job keeping the info tight without any major leaks..

regards


----------



## Lert

I see ARQ closed up 5.3% on no news.. Can we infer anything from that ?


----------



## cicak_kupang

Lert said:
			
		

> I see ARQ closed up 5.3% on no news.. Can we infer anything from that ?




Hi Lert, No i wouldnt look too much into anythin behind the 
arq sp rise.  At the price of $1.41, it is a good price to be picking it up, volume not high today either for ARQ.

Have a gut feeling that the secondaries may be better than the primary in SL, and that New Taiton will be better that SL, dunno why but thats what I'm feeling........

If ADI sp falls again may jump in and get some more. Some may sell due to lack of info, but hey, no news is often good news...


----------



## Agentm

more conspiracies to solve,,


this appeared on a UK thread, the poster is someone who has been alerted to me as being very reliable on matters concerning couch.. 

no doubt tarzan knows this guy..


seems there is now a "no go" on all information..

whats going on??? couchy was the biggest spruiker of SL and now he cant say anything?? 


this is begining to make me wonder about why the secrecy?? is there something they dont want us to know?

love a conspiracy theory..

Safiande - 22 Nov'06 - 07:46 - 21246 of 21286

Draw your own conclusions.
-------------------------------------------------
Tue 11/21/06 

The well is tight hole on information

Charles Couch
Exploration Manager
Oil2 Holdings, Inc
1919 Rhome Street
Dallas, Texas 75229
(972) 444-0256
Fax (972) 444-0276
cell (214) 616-3832


any thoughts anyone???????????


----------



## kevro

I got the same reply when I sent an Email yesterday. Also had added, "I don't see you on my approved list"


----------



## conman

very interesting....


Quite a conundrum.

From an agentm point of view it sounds like Couch is

1)being told to shut up because SL could explode
Or 

From a more pesimistic on-looker
2) He is just shutting up coz he knows that its a duster.

I pray its number one.

If i hadnt heard from our Pommie friends I would have to assume number 2 on the lack of announcements but I have heard from them (that is before there posts were removed) adn that instills a good degree of confidence. Then again like everyone has already said we really dont know till the flow testing is complete.

Cheers and good-luck

PS if you lads in the UK have anymore messages from little birdies plzzzzz let us know over here.

Also, couchies sub note "your not on the list" makes the mind boogle.


----------



## stiger

The thot plickens come on its ok, couch is probably getting emails from coober pedy and ocean grove no wonder he shut up shop.cheers


----------



## maverick11

I have info from a reliable source that the secrecy is due to the neighbouring leases around SL.  This is why last gas show announcement contained even less info than the previous "brief" announcments.

I dunno guys, I'm feeling pretty good about this one.  We know their ship is tight - which can be seen by the falling SP prior to gas show announcments.  The secondaries are better than expected and ADI has said they would only be reporting potentially commercial shows.  Already at least 2 wells have been penciled in for the secondaries alone.  We only had 1 gas show announcement for the secondaries and they played that one down and 3 pretty good reports for the primary with limited info.  Texas Crude has been behind this project for years... They are big players and would crap on the likes of Northern Territory Oil & GDN anyday.  So why would texas crude want to keep it so secretive??  Have they hit the motherload or are they still in search of the holy grail at a mere USD$75,000 per day??  If it was a fizzer, why would they bother keeping it secret from landowners and neighbours??  I think there is gas there (obviously) and it's looking potentially commercial and big.  Now all they need to do is test it and find out for sure, so for the time being - lips are sealed.  That is of course my speculative opinion

Couch:
_Sugarloaf Hosston Prospect – DeWitt County, Tx
20,000 Acre Four Way Closure – new porosity seismic technology – 15 years generating this prospect.
Two Trillion (not Million… not Billion…. but Trillion) Cubic Feet of Gas Potential – I can hear the elephants stomping_


----------



## maverick11

Another thought, and again, my speculative opinion....  I am quite sure they have well and truely exceeded their approved AFE cost.  A lot of people higher up the food chain who pay the bills will be asking a lot of questions and be expecting results.  When they hit 21,000' and if hosston continues deeper they will then also have to weight up the risks and evaluate whether it is economically viable to keep drilling and also risk keeping the hole open.  The rig is capable of going beyond 21,000' and if they do, I dare say this is a very good sign indeed


----------



## massno

maverick11 said:
			
		

> Another thought, and again, my speculative opinion....  I am quite sure they have well and truely exceeded their approved AFE cost.  A lot of people higher up the food chain who pay the bills will be asking a lot of questions and be expecting results.  When they hit 21,000' and if hosston continues deeper they will then also have to weight up the risks and evaluate whether it is economically viable to keep drilling and also risk keeping the hole open.  The rig is capable of going beyond 21,000' and if they do, I dare say this is a very good sign indeed




Yep good point....i have great confidence in this well and have done so for a while now, there has been alot...and i mean alot of work done by all parties involved here and yes....alot of money spent. (Not forgetting hell of alot of speculation.) The big fish asking questions would highly be the case. If this well was not good enough by now they would have pulled the plug and moved on. Anyways, only time will tell now...these tests are going to really interesting not only for us investors but other companies who have similar interests in this somewhat unexplored area...


----------



## fflintoff

maverick11 said:
			
		

> Another thought, and again, my speculative opinion....  I am quite sure they have well and truely exceeded their approved AFE cost.  A lot of people higher up the food chain who pay the bills will be asking a lot of questions and be expecting results.  When they hit 21,000' and if hosston continues deeper they will then also have to weight up the risks and evaluate whether it is economically viable to keep drilling and also risk keeping the hole open.  The rig is capable of going beyond 21,000' and if they do, I dare say this is a very good sign indeed




On 12 Nov spend was $7,910,170 compared to the budget of $5,750,000 so they are already well over. Also if a smaller testing rig is not available I ´m assuming that they will be prepared to go even further over budget by continuing with the Patterson #30 2000HP Mother Fooka.


----------



## chassenon2

First time I have posted on this bb normally just look in early (pommie land), just to say that if I were to trust anybody on the EME bulletin board it would be Safiande. I believe he is straight up and usually posts a link to back up his posts.


----------



## maverick11

I think the approved AFE cost was increased to $6,022,072, but either way you look at it they would be well over $8m by now, and several million over the running AFE.  If I was paying the bills and drilling deeper didn't seem worthwhile then I would be pulling the plug...


----------



## tarzanhey

Re - Saf -UK eme poster - yes he is a trusted one who does a lot of research.

Not much to report today buy at least we held the SP on EME.

Couch is not silenced because of bad news - we already know that - I am not worried about that! imho - good morning and good luck today!


----------



## nioka

The good news today is that there is so little trading in ADI. I have not seen a day where only 3500 shares traded in the first half hour.


----------



## Agentm

the good news yesterday was the announcement of elsi 1 

there are great gas shows through out the whole drill..

no ones jumping ship from what i can see.. maybe others out there are seeing what i see..  value!!

ARQ said the else 1 drill was low risk,, the hydrocarbons are there, its all down to porosity,, there are lots of productive wells on the same plays all around the drill, so i am very comfortable with else 1, it was the one i was relying on more.. austin chalks is my little favorite,, what a gem,, it stops any chance of the sp from falling..

as for the sands.. the nicest news was hearing they had shows,, and plenty of them... the initial shows were the same size as the austin chalks!!!  and we are down at 20,000' !!!!!  man thats insane,, imagine the pressure and compactions at those depths... i still cant wait for the porosity results..  obviously the size of the shows was beyond their estimates as they only went for 30 meters of plays on the well in its projections and got way more.. currently 50 or more!!

i get a little excited on the sands,, as its really great news, but with the extreme downplaying of the significance of the shows, and the reporting of only the shows that they deemed potentially commercial, and none of the others.. its highly encouraging to know the sands have the potential to be commercial!!!  

bring on the flow testing i say... i want real value on my investment.. not this bargain basement speculative prices we see today..

becoming impatient recently!!


----------



## sandybeachs

*AGENTM*

hi agentm

ok...you seem too be the guru..

i'll ask you toughest question since commencement of drilling.

what is your estimate of possible resource..???? ie:200bcf

while i'm at it i'll ask another...LOL

have a stab at a flow rate..???? ie:20mmcfd

regards


----------



## Agentm

Guru??? ME??? just a confident investor with a goal to invest for a great return..

i'll only answer this if it can be used against me later!!! 

my only wish is for one secondary,, and this has come true.. 

as far as reserves.. its impossible to estimate..

but lets say they have porosity at 12% like couchy said in his excitement.. we can then say the secondaries are worth twice what they estimated perhaps.. whenever they decide to declare it and let me know what it is i'll be a happy man.. no one has done proper reserve estimates on the secondaries, and the austin chalks were a very late edition to the whole plan.. i honestly think its a lot bigger than anyone out there currently thinks.. way bigger..



Now for the primary..  i cant calculate reserves and flow rates with no data like Mr Campbell can, but as a expert investor i will give it my best shot.. so quickly i will pull up the two announcements from ADI on the primary and run through the figures.. what figures?? oh well,, lets guess and dream then.

I wouldnt expect texas crude to deliver anything less than what they went there for.. So my guess is 800 BCF and 35mmcfd, and as couchy said they did porosity guessing with new fangled high tech systems costing mega millions,, then lets hope they at least get double what they went there for..

now i expect everyone reading this to totally believe i can tell you exactly whats down there.. but as far as i am concerned, if TCO didnt fail on the secondary, and had shows on the primary,, i wont expect anything less than what they had expected as a minimum to be delivered..

and before christmas also god damn it..!!! 

now DYOR guys and DYO guesswork also.. and DYO ramping ...

all imho  and totally unplausable research ....

whats your angle on the well so far sandy???


----------



## maverick11

There's also gas in the Sligo which has been overlooked.  Edwards didn't look too flash but to me it sounds like shows #2 & #3 were in Sligo as we know #1 was in the austin and #4-7 were in the hosston.  Nothing major, but potentially commercial non the less:

*18th Oct @ 17,000ft:*

_Since the last report, the well drilled 2,520ft of 8.5” hole, mostly in a Cretaceous age limestone, which was a secondary gas target in the well.  In this interval, several methane-only gas shows were obtained.  In order to isolate the extensive interval of limestone in anticipation of higher pressures in the Hosston Formation targe, drilling was halted at 17,000’ to enable a 7 5/8” liner to be run and cemented in place._

*From Hartleys Report (avail on their website):*

_The main technical risk to the Sugarloaf prospect is the preservation of porosity at a depth of greater than 5,200m (17,000ft). In most basins of the world, reservoir quality porosity and permeability is usually too low at these depths to be productive. However, in the Gulf Coast Basin of the USA (especially Texas and Louisiana) there are a number of producing fields at these depths. Published data indicates that in excess of 21tcf of gas has been produced to date from approximately 350 deep onshore fields in the Gulf Coast Basin area at an average well depth of 5,200m (17,000ft).
In addition to the primary Hosston target, there are multiple shallower secondary targets which have been recently upgraded following nearby drilling and flowtesting. These shallower targets, which include the Wilcox,
Edwards and Sligo formations, will be evaluated as part of the Sugarloaf-1 well (Figure 3). Mean potential for these shallower targets is 12mmb of oil and 27bcf of gas._


----------



## barney

This article on Gas/Drilling might be of some interest

http://www.continental-labs.ab.ca/lib.htm


----------



## Agentm

now i have to revise my calculations again!!

good article..


----------



## stiger

Agentm said:
			
		

> now i have to revise my calculations again!!
> 
> good article..



It was a good read, best case scenario for today would be trading halt across partners - followed by ann.Cheers


----------



## Agentm

does AUT have a better share position than ADI??

just trying to understand why AUT, with no massive cash reserves on hand, and about 30% more shares has such high value today .. i know eka is way overpriced,, but doesnt share percentages carry some weight on how you value a share? both AUT and ADI have 20% but if one company has less shares and more cash wouldnt that weigh in its favour?

perhaps ADI is great value at these prices?? i dont know??

kinda wish they would stop drillin and start testin..


----------



## kevro

Morning Agent M, I am probably wrong but it has been mentioned around the traps that an instituition was selling in lots of 25K. I don't believe they have finished yet and are continuing on and off in 25K & 50k lots, but over 60c at least.

Kevro


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

"i know eka is way overpriced"

actually i don't think it's that bad..

seems as though people are over looking it's current drilling in Turkey..

Koyunlu#1 has a possible recoverable 31mmbls (P50) 204mmbls (P10), 2.3mmbs (P90).

currently EKA has a 20% interest, which it can increase to 45%.

also worth noting oil in nearby fields is fairly heavy oil, so don't expect large bopd, perhaps some where around a 200bopd.

should that come in as well as Sugarloaf, it's a bargain

fully diluted approx 80mm shares..

regards


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> does AUT have a better share position than ADI??
> 
> just trying to understand why AUT, with no massive cash reserves on hand, and about 30% more shares has such high value today .. i know eka is way overpriced,, but doesnt share percentages carry some weight on how you value a share? both AUT and ADI have 20% but if one company has less shares and more cash wouldnt that weigh in its favour?
> 
> perhaps ADI is great value at these prices?? i dont know??
> 
> kinda wish they would stop drillin and start testin..



I hold both AUT and ADI. I believe Aut is not quite as speculative as ADI, If Sugarloaf is very successful then ADI must be the better bet but AUT has Nth Bellridge on the go and it has avery good chance of success. I consider AUT as my insurance against Sugarloaf problems.


----------



## sandybeachs

*what do you think is significant..????*

hi guys

email from Charles Couch dated 14/11/06

what do you think when he says ""We have 6 significant shows""
===============================================


We have 6 significant shows. Wait for the final log for final evaluation.

Nice to have a good gas show + a good gamma ray log.


Charles Couch

Exploration Manager

Oil2 Holdings, Inc

1919 Rhome Street

Dallas, Texas 75229

(972) 444-0256

Fax (972) 444-0276

cell (214) 616-3832


----------



## Agentm

what do you think he is talking about sandy.. whats your take on his email??


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm



			
				Agentm said:
			
		

> what do you think he is talking about sandy.. whats your take on his email??




lets just hope his "significant" means huge..

also just re-reading some comments by Peter Strachan's StockAnalysis report, avaliable on ADI's website
===================================================
""""The main target zone has been mapped by seismic data as a four way dip closure with an area of up to 80 km² at a depth between 5,200 and 6,400 metres. The company has set a mean target size of 800 Bcf of gas at depth with potential for an additional 12 mmbbls and 27 Bcf in shallowers Wilcox, Sligo and Austin Chalk formations, which can be targeted by the same well. However, Strachan Corporate calculates that a closure of just 40 km² or just half the mapped target size, with a 30 metre net pay zone and 10% porosity could deliver a gas pool of 1.7 Tcf.""""
============================================

correct me if i'm wrong thus far JVP's have some 78.5 metres of gas shows..

regards


----------



## Broadside

sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi agentm
> 
> 
> 
> lets just hope his "significant" means huge..
> 
> also just re-reading some comments by Peter Strachan's StockAnalysis report, avaliable on ADI's website
> ===================================================
> """"The main target zone has been mapped by seismic data as a four way dip closure with an area of up to 80 km² at a depth between 5,200 and 6,400 metres. The company has set a mean target size of 800 Bcf of gas at depth with potential for an additional 12 mmbbls and 27 Bcf in shallowers Wilcox, Sligo and Austin Chalk formations, which can be targeted by the same well. However, Strachan Corporate calculates that a closure of just 40 km² or just half the mapped target size, with a 30 metre net pay zone and 10% porosity could deliver a gas pool of 1.7 Tcf.""""
> ============================================
> 
> correct me if i'm wrong thus far JVP's have some 78.5 metres of gas shows..
> 
> regards




And maybe a few more shows they haven't disclosed because they don't deem them significant, but possibly a chance when they conduct more testing


----------



## kevro

sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi agentm
> 
> 
> 
> lets just hope his "significant" means huge..
> 
> also just re-reading some comments by Peter Strachan's StockAnalysis report, avaliable on ADI's website
> ===================================================
> """"The main target zone has been mapped by seismic data as a four way dip closure with an area of up to 80 km² at a depth between 5,200 and 6,400 metres. The company has set a mean target size of 800 Bcf of gas at depth with potential for an additional 12 mmbbls and 27 Bcf in shallowers Wilcox, Sligo and Austin Chalk formations, which can be targeted by the same well. However, Strachan Corporate calculates that a closure of just 40 km² or just half the mapped target size, with a 30 metre net pay zone and 10% porosity could deliver a gas pool of 1.7 Tcf.""""
> ============================================
> 
> correct me if i'm wrong thus far JVP's have some 78.5 metres of gas shows..




Hi Sandy, that 78.5m of gas show is from the 3 reported significant gas shows. That means according to Couchie that there is another 3 significant gas shows of unknown depth that still will need to be factored in.


----------



## Agentm

i think couchys comments were taken seriously, not so much by the markets, as he didnt back it up with figures, but by TCO. Since then he has not been able to say anything..

was he speaking the truth?? there are those around who away from the boards are prepared to say what they know and have a good idea what he is talking about, but in all fairness to the sp and to daytraders riding rumours, have kept fairly low key on it..

I agree the calculations you post sandy are all very very conservative on the primary.. and as far as the commercial viability goes,, if the flow happens and they are spot on, then multi TCF is feasable..

at these depths anywhere else in the world you just dont get commercial gas shows.. adi has been required under the rules of the asx to report 3 potentially commercial flows right in the primary targets,, 2 ( or a whole lot more if you believe couch) in the upper, and one in the lower..

the estimates were for 300' in the upper and 75' in the lower, and crap porosity.. and with that you got way above 800BCF,, i think from memory around 1.5TCF..

they have hardly given anything away.. only reported the shows they absolutely had to..  its anyones guess what they really have before them.. whatever it is, it certainly is important enough for them to keep everyones lips well and truely sealed..

they managed through very clever wording to completely blindside the market on the austin chalks,, when couchy got excited, they shut him up.. then the primary went.. couchy got excited,,and again they shut him up,,  WHY???

my money is on the positive side.. i view the secondary as commercial, and the as for the primary.. i only look at logic, if its a closed shop, then there is obviously a reason to keep it that way,, the land owners were already signed up on the primary, and less were signed on the secondary, so what other reason can there be?

i like conspiracy theorys, but my theory is pretty biased, i only want to believe the primary is commercial now.. before i only dreamed it,, now i see every day in volumes of trade, lack of information, and stability in sp.. way different to magnolia when in a sudden moment all hell broke out and the sp fell.. in the oil business you cant keep bad news off the market,, good news is always different, people are suspicious about the motives, sp doesnt move unless backed up with facts, but bad news in the oil business travels fast,, i dont see anything like that..  i remain optomistic.. confident.. 

this is entirely IMHO and DYOR on how to take the news around.. you can present good arguements for the opposite, but no one has yet..


----------



## fflintoff

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi Sandy, that 78.5m of gas show is from the 3 reported significant gas shows. That means according to Couchie that there is another 3 significant gas shows of unknown depth that still will need to be factored in.



------------------------------
They are not of unknown depth. Total shows so far as per TCEI ´ ´s logs are 7 of which 4 are in the primary & 3 in the secondary ( Austin Chalk & Sligo ).


----------



## austrader02

Yo ppl,

Not much to report this week and therefore i slept nice and easy knowing the company was not going to make any release towards the end of the week! bring on the well-testing as i really doubt many more releases are coming our way. Does anyone have an idea on how they plan to flow-test this well.....test it whie the rig is on location or complete the well, put a wellhead and flow test into a massive massive flare pit to barbeque 10000 snaggers!

lets hope this well is not tight and will flow.....5 weeks to christmas....i want to have extra cash for my trip!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Have a good weekend and hoping for some good cricket....i like Kevin.P and Freddie........some runs from either would be good!


----------



## The Snorkler

Thanks for all the information everybody. Its all great reading. Im still onboard for the big win and confident   

I just spent three days at a Petroleum Engineer love-in (conference) in the countryside. Definitely thinking of switching to architecture now.

The write-up in the English press re: the Ashes are pretty classic. There was a nice two page spread devoted to the first wide bowl. They calculated it was heading for SanFransico.


----------



## fflintoff

These are the depths of shows 5  6 & 7 which are deemed to be commercial subject to testing by TCEI :-


SHOW #5 
MW IN 14.9 SAND = DULL WHITE AND TAN; FINE-GRAIN
QUARTS AND CARBONATE UNCONSOLIDATED

18300
GRAINS; POORLY SORTED; SUB-ANGULAR
TO ROUNDED, OCCASSIONALLY FROSTED TO
POLISHED; 
LIMESTONE.
SAND = OFF WHITE AND CLEAR; MOSTLY SILTY
GPM 178 
SHOW #6 

18400
BLACK SHALE AND OCC LIMESTONE.
MW IN 15.0 SAND = WHITE AND TAN; SILT TO FINE-GRAIN
MW OUT 14.9 QUARTS AND CARBONATE UNCONSOLIDATED
SHOW #7

In addition a further commercial gas show of 18ft was reported on 17 November 2006. Specific depth was not stated in the report but it is between 19150ft & 19434ft as below.

“SUGARLOAF-1 WEEKLY PROGRESS REPORT
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 14th November 2006 the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, was drilling ahead in 6  ½ inch hole at a depth of 19,150 feet (5,838 metres)

SUGARLOAF-1 GAS SHOW 
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 16 November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at 19,434 feet (5,925 metres). 
Since the last well progress report released on 15 November 2006, the well has encountered a gas show over an 18 foot (5.5 metres) interval. Total gas readings peaked at 536 units from a background of about 230 units and chromatography indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and a trace of butane (C4). “

Shows are believed to be multiple & continuous over the sands depending on the formation ratio. Adelphi has already confirmed to Stereo that not all shows will be reported unless they are deemed to be significantly more commercial than hitherto.


----------



## sandybeachs

*have some problems with Couchies comments*

hi guys

i have some problems with Couchies comments re:

""The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.""

my reading of the above suggests possible oil shows over that interval.

if Couchie has this inormation, then surely ADI, AUT & EKA would also have some knowledge of this.

then why no mention by ADI, AUT & EKA. if they do have knowledge and haven't reported it, then it becomes a non-disclosure issue.

ADI, AUT & EKA have only reported gas shows..

surely Texas Crude wouldn't have said "don't release any information about possible oil descovery.

seems strange.

comments welcomed

regards


----------



## maverick11

*Re: have some problems with Couchies comments*



			
				sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi guys
> 
> i have some problems with Couchies comments re:
> 
> ""The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.""
> 
> my reading of the above suggests possible oil shows over that interval.
> 
> if Couchie has this inormation, then surely ADI, AUT & EKA would also have some knowledge of this.
> 
> then why no mention by ADI, AUT & EKA. if they do have knowledge and haven't reported it, then it becomes a non-disclosure issue.
> 
> ADI, AUT & EKA have only reported gas shows..
> 
> surely Texas Crude wouldn't have said "don't release any information about possible oil descovery.
> 
> seems strange.
> 
> comments welcomed
> 
> regards




because technically the oil shows as gas...until it condensates....sneaky eh!


----------



## maverick11

i'm expecting full depth this week provided there have been no unexpected delays


----------



## Agentm

they have wirelined the secondaries. no release of information on any reports, and dont expect that will change any time soon.

i think couchy was talking it up big time as he makes his money not from the oil or gas he finds, but more from the number of investors per well he can sign up,, 

i think perhaps he was correct is saying many rigs, possibly half what he thinks, would be needed to exploit and develop the austin chalks, but there is no requirement for the partners to disclose anything further until the well is tested, ADI wants to drill twice on the chalks already.. and as with everything on this drill, i believe their announcement to go on with the chalks is extremely conservative also,,,


i believe the .30 to the sp from the commencement of the well is way below what the austin chalks are capable adding to the sp.. if you calculate what volume of oil and gas you need to pay back the well costs, then you start to see how much reserves 50  or 100 wells must have.. and the answer is no where near .30

as a long term investor i dont see any value in anyone  selling until the market either gets it, or the partners commence the disclosure of information regarding the chalks.. and if the primary which has more than sufficient finds and shows to be potentially commercial, actually becomes commercial!! then the possibility of not achieving you maximum return for your investment is definately going to haunt you for a long time if the share goes $6..

for me the share price today is an absolute bargain.. all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## tarzanhey

*Re: have some problems with Couchies comments*



			
				sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi guys
> 
> i have some problems with Couchies comments re:
> 
> ""The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.""
> 
> my reading of the above suggests possible oil shows over that interval.
> 
> if Couchie has this inormation, then surely ADI, AUT & EKA would also have some knowledge of this.
> 
> 
> then why no mention by ADI, AUT & EKA. if they do have knowledge and haven't reported it, then it becomes a non-disclosure issue.
> 
> ADI, AUT & EKA have only reported gas shows..
> 
> surely Texas Crude wouldn't have said "don't release any information about possible oil descovery.
> 
> seems strange.
> 
> comments welcomed
> 
> regards




Sandybeaches - I was told by EME that the partners were only allowed to report to the market, the information that they were given by Texas Crude and when i then asked does that mean that  what Couch had said was not true - I was told - "no I did not say that it is not true" " Couch Oil is a private company and not listed on any stock exchanges and therefore they can say whatever they like"  Whereas we can only report what we have been told to release.

Make of that what you want - I think it is pretty clear.


----------



## Agentm

in ADI's quarterly and anual report they both proclaim that potentially they have 100 BCF on the austin chalks as a reserve..  thats .82 to the adi sp.. no oil has been announce officially, but couchy has made a song and dance over it..

lets say they are being conservative, and only telling a small truth on whats there, and the porosity is double (which is what couchy was saying it is) then maybe the reserve estimates is closer to  or greater than 200 BCF, or 1.64 to the sp..

the primary is only days from being trested, and there are enough shows to warrant the announcements.. and the TCO boys getting results in every target they went for, i cant wait for the news on the flow rates on the primary.. 

with 14m in the bank,, and only .64 at the moment. thats like .15 more than what it was pre sugarloaf... ADI is certainly great value.. 

the secondary at a mininum should be getting the sp up around $1  and i believe its worth way more than that..

what i cant figure is how do you justify selling at todays prices if ADI believe they are sitting potentially on 100 BCF in the austin chalks alone..

DYOR on the stock before you profit take or sell out, you may be selling yourself short..


----------



## cicak_kupang

In relation to what the sp may go to, there is an interesting table on the ADI website under broker reports. The one i'm on about is on pg 6 of the 21  august 2006 hartleys broker report.  they have broke it down in to SL primary sl secondary, New Taition, and Yemen, with respect to what they are expecting to find in each.  some of you would already be aware of this table, but it does make interesting reading if you havent yet seen it.....


----------



## maverick11

the presence of propane and butane are also indicative of oil


----------



## fflintoff

ARQ mentioned Hydrocarbons rather than gas only which allows for the possibility of oil as per Koochy

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Quarterly Report - 30 Sep 2006.pdf

“The Sugarloaf 1 well (Adelphi: 20%) currently being drilled on one of the largest un-drilled prospects onshore USA has encountered encouraging hydrocarbon shows in the shallow objective section and is expected to encounter the principal reservoir objective Hosston Sandstone section shortly. “


----------



## tarzanhey

hi guys - Got this snippet today on advfn eme thread from Safiande

"Drilling ahead at 20,819' - 6 FPH, 69 U BGG, No shows in last 24 hrs, 20% siltstone, 80% shale." Sun 07.30.
--------------------------------------------
Almost there! 

Dont know about his source but have no reason to doubt it.

What about the previous 24hrs?


----------



## sandybeachs

hi guys

stab in the dark....................

i like the looks of A.C trend..

my gut feeling on the A.C trend says "probably good gas flow with oil condensate. (5-10mmcf/day & 100-250bopd)

my gut feeling also says "Couchie might have been OVER talking up A.C, i mean 100wells looks over the top).

not much between A.C & Primary Target. But you never know.

Primary Target has had some good gas shows.

the main question on Primary Target is porosity and permeability.

if the porosity and permeability is good in the primary target, perhaps between 20-30mmcf day.

so having said that my gut feeling says "A.C will be commercial with oil condensate, Sligo Formation looking average & Primary Target looks good, but jury still out"

regards


----------



## Agentm

with the volumes they have now i think they will call a trading halt!!  
1000 shares traded!!

just for the record.. it wasnt me who bought them!!

my prediction is that TD will be extended.. anyone else think that way?


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> with the volumes they have now i think they will call a trading halt!!
> my prediction is that TD will be extended.. anyone else think that way?



I doubt it. I'm expecting an announcement of finishing at the depth tomorrow unless there is a "find" before then. The cost overrun is the factor which I think will make the decision for some of the partners. Looking at the company reports they think the wellis commercial so I anticipate the weekly report will say the well has reached total depth and that interesting zones will be wireline logged in anticipation of future production testing. 
 Does anyone have a different opinion?


----------



## stereo21

nioka said:
			
		

> I doubt it. I'm expecting an announcement of finishing at the depth tomorrow unless there is a "find" before then. The cost overrun is the factor which I think will make the decision for some of the partners. Looking at the company reports they think the wellis commercial so I anticipate the weekly report will say the well has reached total depth and that interesting zones will be wireline logged in anticipation of future production testing.
> Does anyone have a different opinion?



I think your spot on Nioka.  We will only find out the true value of the well once the results from the wireline logging and flow testing are completed. The ship will continue to be tight until then.


----------



## maverick11

nioka said:
			
		

> I doubt it. I'm expecting an announcement of finishing at the depth tomorrow unless there is a "find" before then. The cost overrun is the factor which I think will make the decision for some of the partners. Looking at the company reports they think the wellis commercial so I anticipate the weekly report will say the well has reached total depth and that interesting zones will be wireline logged in anticipation of future production testing.
> Does anyone have a different opinion?




I suspect so too.  Infact they would be at 21,000 today. They have achieved what they set out and that was to develop a commercial well.  Next step will be to log and flow test and I am still very confident they will get great results.   Just to let you know, they had a budget increase to approx $9.4m, which is $3.7m more than anticipated.


----------



## HOMER J

Anyone have an idea how long roughly wireline logging and flow testing would be likely to take at these depths? interesting times ahead..... still holding patiently


----------



## sandybeachs

hi guys

one more gas show (thick and juicy) in the last 1,000ft would be nice..

regards


----------



## nioka

sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi guys
> 
> one more gas show (thick and juicy) in the last 1,000ft would be nice..
> 
> regards



Dream on but I think you will have to be happy with what you have so far which according to company reports I assess as being about $1 to $1.50 a share. The $6 spoken about regularly would be nice and is still possible I believe.


----------



## Agentm

hey homer

re the wireline and testing etc..  they cant afford a rig of this size,, they will definately use a workover rig on sugarloaf.

i wonder how many weeks it will take for the next rig to come in and for this one to pack up..

pretty close to t/d any ways, so i gather we get announcements in the next few days or perhaps next week?

oil price goes up,, sp goes down..


----------



## austrader02

Agent M,

On the mob and de-mob time....they will doing at asap! If they having any inclination of doing a well-test they will be sourcing a rig as we speak. In addition, why cant they run wireline logs with this one if they are desperate for an initial welltest. Anyways in summary, onshore rigs will generally get offsite in 3days....these guys are very efficient...as they should case 6k/hr for 75k/day rig someone needs to pay for!

Our best case would be that they do the logs, decide to complete it their and then, do a quick flow-test on a fixed...let us know they flowed 100 mmscfd and the reserves are 3 TCF! That would be gold.....jerry gold! Anyways its a dream but i hope it becomes a reality!


----------



## Agentm

hey Austrader,,

agree with all your calculations, and look forward to seeing those numbers come up, 

as for workover rig, i believe the type of tests these guys want to do cant be performed by this rig, a workover rig is definately on the cards. if its 3 days then thats brilliant, lets see if todays announcement brings any news on TD and also on the workover rig perhaps..


----------



## stereo21

The 2006 AGM presentation has just been posted on the ASX.  Very interesting stuff...


----------



## blues

Did anyone attend yesterday's AGM? Would be interesting to hear comments and the tone of the meeting?


----------



## djones

"Geology Mainly As Expected"

"Operationally Very Successful"


----------



## Sean K

Hope you guys held this before the sell off this month. 30%. Ouch.

Looks to be consolidating ok at the moment, and possibly generally up, but beware the potential H&S formation which if confirmed would send this back to about $0.40/45 and about where the next decent support should be.


----------



## Agentm

a sub economic gas flow is a "failure"

nice one.. that should end any speculation!!!

bring on the flow testing guys....


----------



## nioka

Report doesn't look anything fancy. In the forward program they opnly list 2 possible shallow wells for sugarloaf.


----------



## Agentm

I think the terminology used is none the less positive nioka..

i found the new projects interesting but as i didnt have the airfare booked for perth i didnt attend and didnt get any insight into the future projects..  indonesia is also mentioned,  also the 3ds on the USA gulf coast.. isnt that what TCO is doing?? i wonder if its to do with the TCO operations.

regarding the wells when you think about it, they cant list a deep well for Sugarloaf or risk massive speculation on the share price, yet the 100 BCF estimates for the austin and two wells doesnt even cause a ripple on the shareprice..  

they are very bullish on the austin 

the severe secrecy on the primary has its sound reasons, and the reasons to only report potentially  commercial shows 58 meters in all on the primary, and to absolutely report no other shows since the end of the secondaries (sligo) even in the weekly reports can show you how closed and tight the information is on the primary. What we do get is that the size of the primary is way bigger than expected, and if you think back to the seismics not being accurate and the hosston sands commencing way deeper than expected, then it makes sense that the actual size of the gas shows were way bigger than expected...

i see adi have pointed all three shows as part of the upper hosston, and nothing in the lower,, i thought the lower was the third show in the primary..

looks good for the near term,, i bought in at a great price and can see some good reasons to hold for now,,


----------



## Agentm

ok.. i'll start..

if we are still in the primary why stop drilling???

what is TD?

if not at TD then why wirline b4 TD?


----------



## HOMER J

Im scratching my head too. would drillers usually announce reaching total depth? seems they have stopped 30m short.....


----------



## nioka

I'll suggest total depth has been reached. To date I have been a cautious optimist. Today I have become pessimistic. (When I saw the presentation that showed only 2 shallow wells in the budget for next year and none after that for sugarloaf)
Maybe the wireline logs will find something more but don't count on it. I have kept some of my ADI shares but have sold 50000 which cost47c av for  62c today and invested in AOE. I am pessimistic of ADI but optimistic of AOE


----------



## djones

nioka said:
			
		

> When I saw the presentation that showed only 2 shallow wells in the budget for next year and none after that for sugarloaf




Could that be because they dont plan wells unless they know its economic and they cant ascertain that yet?


----------



## nioka

djones said:
			
		

> Could that be because they dont plan wells unless they know its economic and they cant ascertain that yet?



Your guess is as good as mine or better. I don't gamble on what someone MIGHT do. I only invest on what they ARE doing.


----------



## djones

nioka said:
			
		

> Your guess is as good as mine or better. I don't gamble on what someone MIGHT do. I only invest on what they ARE doing.




Well then you should only be investing in established resource companies as explorers and drillers like this one are only worth what they MIGHT do in the future. They ARE testing reserves that they have found to see if it worth doing something, youd prefer they tested first than put 20 wells in there AGM slide and then they find they can only have 2 definite ones...


----------



## Agentm

nioka

nice to see you made some gains and are happy to get on with other investments.. 

adi has allocated cash for the sugarloaf and other US projects..

You cannot expect they announce multiple wells on the austin chalks, if you expected it then you would never get it, just as they cant for the primary, as it would possibly send the wrong signal to the market. Currently they have 2 possible wells for the chalks already for 07, and thats before they have announced the results of the wireline logs, it says to me the logs may have been more positive than negative to me.... and as for the primary, we today have an unexpected drilling halt and suddenly into wireline logging. so whats happening there?   For me i am bullish on the secondaries, and as for the primary, after todays announcement i am extremely curious as to why they stopped drilling and are wirelining instead.. no anouncements of shows, and we know they wont announce shows less than the previous one, so have they a whole series of smaller shows?  whats happening out there??   

For me i remain in for the value of the secondaries and the final yes or no on the primary. I know that wont be known until after wireline logging and testing and then once they continue drilling again. 

from whats floating around the traps on the primary in the recent days i am not that suprised they are suddenly wireline logging.. 

but as i say, great to see money made on the share.. well done..


----------



## nioka

djones said:
			
		

> Well then you should only be investing in established resource companies as explorers and drillers like this one are only worth what they MIGHT do in the future. They ARE testing reserves that they have found to see if it worth doing something, youd prefer they tested first than put 20 wells in there AGM slide and then they find they can only have 2 definite ones...



What they ARE doing, according to their report, is budgeting for 2 Shallow wells no mention of another deep one. Shallow gas wells will be a long time recouping the cost of sugarloaf to date.


----------



## maverick11

I think they want to log the primary to see what they've got.  The drill also probably requires maintenance or something.  On the bright side, we will have some gas data announced later in the week or early next week after logging.  Who knows whether the primary stops at exactly 21,000' or a bit before or after??  I think they will find out what the primaries are looking like as part of their risk assessment as to whether they will drill past 21,000'.


----------



## tarzanhey

anyone notice it doesnt say - We have reached TD? maybe they will wireline and continue to drill on - they may have found something big! it says they continued to drill in the primary target - not stopped.


AIM quoted Empyrean Energy PLC today announces that as at 6am Texas time on 28th
November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well located in the onshore Gulf
Coast Basin was at a depth of 20,896 feet (6,371 metres). The current operation
is conditioning the hole and preparing to run wire-line logs.

Since the last report released on 21st November 2006, the well has continued to
drill in the primary target of the Sugarloaf-1 well.

It is expected that the running of the wire-line logs and interpretation of
these and other geological information will take several days.


THESE GUYS ARE SO CAGEY YOU HAVE TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES. LOL

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME!!!


----------



## austrader02

Yo Tarzan,

Happy birthday mate! From my understanding, wireline logs are always run after a company has reached TD. Reason being they need to pull the drill assembley an put in the wireline running tool and run back down the hole! This process takes time = mONEY! So from my understanding, i think TD has been reached and they will log.....fingers crossed.

I was hoping they would be more clear but i think they are unsure also! No leak from Couchie, not much info from the releases in the last two weeks BUT IT doesnt mean nothing is there! My question, is lets say they say primary was a dud and secondary is great and we will complete the well and test it.....will that impact the price at all? 
If the release indicates that they will complete the secondaries, what do u all think will happen the share price....hasnt this already been factored in at the current price?


----------



## fflintoff

tarzanhey said:
			
		

> anyone notice it doesnt say - We have reached TD? maybe they will wireline and continue to drill on - they may have found something big! it says they continued to drill in the primary target - not stopped.
> 
> 
> AIM quoted Empyrean Energy PLC today announces that as at 6am Texas time on 28th
> November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well located in the onshore Gulf
> Coast Basin was at a depth of 20,896 feet (6,371 metres). The current operation
> is conditioning the hole and preparing to run wire-line logs.
> 
> Since the last report released on 21st November 2006, the well has continued to
> drill in the primary target of the Sugarloaf-1 well.
> 
> It is expected that the running of the wire-line logs and interpretation of
> these and other geological information will take several days.
> 
> 
> THESE GUYS ARE SO CAGEY YOU HAVE TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES. LOL
> 
> HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME!!!



----------------------------------------

It has been TPD ( Total Proposed Depth ) rather than TD for some time. There will not be any more drilling. Maverick knows from the logs from leaky rice that the formation is 80% shale & siltstone at this depth rather than the nice 80% sandstone from 18000ft to 18500ft where they reported the glorious earlier shows in mid Nov.


----------



## nioka

tarzanhey said:
			
		

> THESE GUYS ARE SO CAGEY YOU HAVE TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES.



Maybe we have read too much between the lines. ADI, according to their announcement today, have only listed 2 shallow wells for sugarloaf in 07 and none for 08 or 09. I can't hear any elephants stomping.


----------



## fflintoff

nioka said:
			
		

> Maybe we have read too much between the lines. ADI, according to their announcement today, have only listed 2 shallow wells for sugarloaf in 07 and none for 08 or 09. I can't hear any elephants stomping.




ADI AGM presentation has confirmed earlier sight of logs  in upper Hosston which could not have been much sweeter. 80% sandstone for the first 45m . We didn ´t see the logs for the latter 5.5m. Furthermore these are reported shows per Anns only as they have not revealed any new info. The seismic was very accurate. This is one reason ADI stated that “the geology was mainly as expected “ in their presentation.
If this flows we can expect good numbers imho but no problem if you are short & need to manipulate the price lower. :


----------



## Lucky_Country

OK guys its my turn!
Seems too me they have left open a chance for futher drilling after the wireline logging is complete.
Gas shows in the primaries and secondaries theat have been announced they feel are commercial.
New Taiton just around the corner so here we go again.
Yemen looks like an exciting prospect.
Timor Sea is defiantely an oil and gas rich area.
Indonesia wait too hear more about.
All in all  this is an exciting company with great prospects both short and medium term I watch with enthusiasm and interest with the feeling that gains will be made in the near future


----------



## cicak_kupang

Well, sorry to say but i think the houston sands have been nowhere near what they expected, and that the 2ndrys have been better than they expected,but after saying that they also say in the ADI agm that there has been 55.5m? of gas shows over all, and does that not equate to 800 bcf, which is what they expected to find?  
I think the 2ndrys will bethe money spinner behind thisand yesthismay already be factored into the SP.  New Taition(N.T), will be a goer, Yemen, looks promising, but see what happens with the terrorist net work there, as for Indonesia, from what i know from living there onand off, this country has plenty of reserves and unexploredarea. I'm keen to find out more about this venture and who they are working with.  
In any case i now see my holding of this stock increasing as the upside overall has just increased, with or without HS.  
This is a company with a future, SL is just a step in its path to success


----------



## maverick11

hey people, they are logging now, some 130' short because of inconsequential operational reasons.  Drilling deeper is still an option on the cards.  This also isn't the first log, so no big deal, but at least we can expect some log results in a few days.

Also, anyone notice the additional 1,500,000 (95cps) incentive options issued to managment


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Guys I don't mean to hijack this thread, but have any of you been following GGP?


There wireline logs just confirmed over 1000ft of gas intersections over 4 seperate zones, I have noticed alot of very technical analysis on this thread and am curious what sore of Struture are we talking about with such an intersection? Company had pre-drill estimates of between 50-250BCF?


Sorry for off-topic post

Also how did you guys learn this tech analysis of Oil/Gas wells, recommend any good books etc?


----------



## Agentm

After looking closer i agree with most of the above.. 

TD is not an issue, they have gone as far as they wanted.. the wireline logging is nesseary and being done for good reasons. The shows in the primary are significant and warrant further investigation. 

yesterday i was confused as to why they didnt announce the TD. there is a very small chance they could find reasons to drill further, but in all probability it appears this is as far as they go..

The seismics were relatively accurate, except in predicting the start of the sands.. we are at amazing depths here and these texas guys know their stuff..

looking forward to the results in the short term on the wireline..


----------



## DAVIDB75

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> There wireline logs just confirmed over 1000ft of gas intersections over 4 seperate zones, I have noticed alot of very technical analysis on this thread and am curious what sore of Struture are we talking about with such an intersection? Company had pre-drill estimates of between 50-250BCF?




I find it very interesting that GGP only announced one 25 ft section of gas during drilling, yet are now confirming potential production from 1000ft and four sections. If you ascribe the discrepancy to conservative management announcements, i would say ADI et al have been very conservative in their announcements, yet have 55 metres of stated shows in several intervals. It bodes well for the wireline logs in this highly gaseous fairway I would think!


----------



## djones

DAVIDB75 said:
			
		

> I find it very interesting that GGP only announced one 25 ft section of gas during drilling, yet are now confirming potential production from 1000ft and four sections. If you ascribe the discrepancy to conservative management announcements, i would say ADI et al have been very conservative in their announcements, yet have 55 metres of stated shows in several intervals. It bodes well for the wireline logs in this highly gaseous fairway I would think!




It all depends on the width i think.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

djones said:
			
		

> It all depends on the width i think.




We are talking about Gas intercepts here aren't we?  : 


David you are absolutely right, thats why this 1000ft intersection has caught so many investors/brokers off guard as during drilling the only ann a 25ft intersection


----------



## maverick11

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Guys I don't mean to hijack this thread, but have any of you been following GGP?
> 
> 
> There wireline logs just confirmed over 1000ft of gas intersections over 4 seperate zones, I have noticed alot of very technical analysis on this thread and am curious what sore of Struture are we talking about with such an intersection? Company had pre-drill estimates of between 50-250BCF?
> 
> 
> Sorry for off-topic post
> 
> Also how did you guys learn this tech analysis of Oil/Gas wells, recommend any good books etc?




I don't get it.  Logging of their well is completed but they provide no data whatsoever.  They have four zones of gas bearing intervals totalling 1000', but this is no indication of well commerciality.  Further to this, 1000' of gas bearing intervals does not indicate even 1' of gas 'shows'.  Sugarloaf for example would have 3000'+ of "potentially gas bearing" intersects/targets, but the 'potentially commercial gas shows' are much smaller.


----------



## chops_a_must

maverick11 said:
			
		

> Also, anyone notice the additional 1,500,000 (95cps) incentive options issued to managment



Yes, I did. They know something we don't know! *dances* lol!

But if this moves, I'll be doing everything I can to put more on it.


----------



## nioka

fflintoff said:
			
		

> ADI AGM presentation has confirmed earlier sight of logs  in upper Hosston which could not have been much sweeter. 80% sandstone for the first 45m . We didn ´t see the logs for the latter 5.5m. Furthermore these are reported shows per Anns only as they have not revealed any new info. The seismic was very accurate. This is one reason ADI stated that “the geology was mainly as expected “ in their presentation.
> If this flows we can expect good numbers imho but no problem if you are short & need to manipulate the price lower. :



When there was the thought of "elephants stopmping" I doubled my holding. I no longer hear elephants so I have halved my holding. I have faith that the company has a future but I still believe that too much has been said on this forum that is based more on hope than on proven facts. Too much has been speculation. There has also been a lot of very good information.


----------



## stiger

nioka said:
			
		

> When there was the thought of "elephants stopmping" I doubled my holding. I no longer hear elephants so I have halved my holding. I have faith that the company has a future but I still believe that too much has been said on this forum that is based more on hope than on proven facts. Too much has been speculation. There has also been a lot of very good information.



 I tend to agree with you ,although its more of a case of the elephants stoppping for now .Any sign of an upward move and I will increase my holding.Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

quiet day today..

i was wondering if anyone had ideas of when the wireline gets announced,, theres quite a few thousand feet to be done, next week perhaps?

In spite of announcing 2 possible planned wells for the austin i cant see an agenda for the flow testing.. I believe they wirelined the secondaries, both austin and sligo.. do we get that data soon?

I see EKA is getting good value for the investors,, are things going well there??

can anyone tell me what the new project in turkey can deliver to their sp?? must be pretty good as the share may be sneaking past adi soon,, anyone hold both?

all these questions....


----------



## HOMER J

Hey Agentm, im still holding EKA and ADI. EKA recently hit 9m of oil shows and stopped to run a casing before drilling any further. Still have 160m to drill.
the have a lot of info on this well in their nov 3 corporate presentation.
i think the p50 estimate was a potential 31m barrels. eka have a 20% stake and can increase it to 45% for something like 2 million.


----------



## Broadside

I hold both as well Homer, was trying to get my head around what 31m barrels might be worth if they up to 45% interest.  As sandy mentioned they encountered oil 30m before they expected it, has to be encouraging.


----------



## HOMER J

yes i have no idea what it could be worth either. 
from their website:

The structure has the potential to host recoverable reserves of 31 million barrels (P50) if oil is present and commercially extractable. The oil recovered from the Raman fields is relatively heavy (13-18 API gravity) and any oil at Koyunlu-1 is likely to be similar. This oil is readily saleable at a small discount to standard Middle Eastern Crude prices. The area has good oil and gas infrastructure with the regional oil refining and handling centre at Batman, 24 kilometres north of the well location.

http://www.eurekaenergy.com.au/bismil.asp


----------



## unixspice

Bored, bored, bored, bored, bored, bored… I’m getting sick of pushing the refresh key on adi today. Even the stuff on eka is boring. I mean come on guys, what are the chances of it coming up with some Turkish delight considering they joined the project a couple of weeks before drilling? …  Must be time for another motivational tirade about adi from Agentm to get us all perked up for the weekend.…


----------



## Agentm

:topic

i just been out all afternoon doing calls to clients,, its like nothing i expected weather wise... absolutely brilliant day..


this stock is like...:horse: 


nothing happens now,, they wireline... YAWN...    :headshake 

oh yeah,, later on we get rich!!


not a single announcement by anyone, no broker reports, no presentations to make some more absolutely outrageous conspiracy theories about, unless something happens soon i will have to  start ranting and raving about beasley..
so nothing to end the week with :band



even the cricket, which i dont follow nor like is boring.


cant we discuss cudeco??? is it the real deal??

or why GDN refuse to release the wireline logs to the market as promised??? 

so dyo ranting and have an absolutely fantastic weekend.. hope everyone made a bundle and i intend to get thoroughly smashed all weekend as its high time i did so...


----------



## massno

im in it for the long haul fellas, i mean if SL is not up to the hype that still does not worry me at the least, other projects will certainly pay off for us patient investors, and i mean patient. Not those who expect to double their money in 2 days or after some freak weekly announcement. Good luck to everybody who has invested in ADI. I really do feel nothing but pity for those who bow out and cannot ride a wave...they should just give up surfin all together.


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:
			
		

> :topic
> 
> i just been out all afternoon doing calls to clients,, its like nothing i expected weather wise... absolutely brilliant day..
> 
> 
> this stock is like...:horse:
> 
> 
> nothing happens now,, they wireline... YAWN...    :headshake
> 
> oh yeah,, later on we get rich!!
> 
> 
> not a single announcement by anyone, no broker reports, no presentations to make some more absolutely outrageous conspiracy theories about, unless something happens soon i will have to  start ranting and raving about beasley..
> so nothing to end the week with :band
> 
> 
> 
> even the cricket, which i dont follow nor like is boring.
> 
> 
> cant we discuss cudeco??? is it the real deal??
> 
> or why GDN refuse to release the wireline logs to the market as promised???
> 
> so dyo ranting and have an absolutely fantastic weekend.. hope everyone made a bundle and i intend to get thoroughly smashed all weekend as its high time i did so...




"not a single announcement by anyone, no broker reports, no presentations .."
Did you not see the video on the site ?
Link http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/index.php


----------



## Agentm

a journey to texas, the movie.. 

that was some video.. 

i am very impressed with the worksafe practices, and the rig guy can do the work of 3 i think,, he is one massive bloke... 

the music wasnt the best.. 

i liked the dot on the adelphi "i" flying around the world bit,, it worked well with how i am feeling today..  

importantly they have stepped up security with attack rattlesnakes!!

apparently rattlesnakes are attracted to 800 BCF rigs so i think its a good sign..

i am currently in discussions with adi on tshirt promotion,,

but seriously, i found it interesting to see the massive rig in action,, it was impressive..

bring on the wireline results


----------



## cicak_kupang

Has anyone any idea on what % change there is of ADI and co, actually finding their 800 +bcf of gas?  I read in a broker report from the middle of this year that its only around 14%.  I thought with the backing of the Texans there may have been a bigger chance than that.  Basically equates to a 1  in 6 chance of HS comming to the party.  Anyway, I'm now in it for the 2ndry's, like Agentm, if HS pays off then all the better.
Guess we'll all know soon enough...........


----------



## fflintoff

The focus is on running & interpreting the logs.
Hosston could have 1500ft + cumulative of interest as gas units seem to be multiple & continuous from 18000ft. In particular the upper Hosston has very favourable lithology.
Austin Chalk is oil bearing according to Charles & is likely to be a producer. 
There could  be upside from Sligo which was always the prime secondary target rather than Austin. An extra 2500ft of casing was used from 14500ft to 17000ft which took them several $Ms over the original budget & added 10- 12 days to the original schedule. Furthermore Sligo turned out to be 1000ft deeper at 18000ft than indicated by the seismic.


----------



## Agentm

hi flintoff,

in the presentations they seem to not have any interest in the sligo, do you think its being considerd as a potential commercial play also?

It will be a great relief to get the log results, i look forward to the austin ones in particular, and the hosston seems to me to be spoken about and played up a lot by ADI just now,, i have never seen a film on a rig being put on a website before, its very bullish in my opinion.. I would much rather they posted the results of the wireline logs from the secondary before i see any film on a rig, but its nice to see the operation as its a massive rig and very impressive.

I think the primary is becoming very positive in ADI's plans, and they are definately planning forward, and talking a lot about it in their presentations, no negativity or conservative remarks there,, which is completely opposite to their weekly reports.. which says to me there is reason for the primary to still be regarded as being potentially commercial..


----------



## Sean K

In addition to the possible H&S formation (tenuous) just thought I'd do this chart looking at some support and resistance lines. Really needs to get back above $0.60 v soon, or it's heading to $0.55, and then $0.45ish. Down trending at the moment clearly seen on the moving averages and the MACD is bearishly diverging if anything. Of course, $0.55-60 could turn into a solid consolidation area too, just watch out for a break below this...

Good luck to long term holders. Hope it turns up for you, but I'd be cautious if I was a short term player on this right now. Of course a good ann could turn it around.


----------



## fflintoff

Hi agentm,
ARQ have stated in their corporate presentations that Austin appears to be economic ( sub economic is deemed to be a failure )  & that hydrocarbon shows  " are very encouraging " 
I haven ´t ruled out Edwards yet, let alone Sligo despite Couch ´s view that Edwards is too tight to produce. 
Sligo is very interesting - extra 2500ft casing used which is tres expensive. Several thin shows of gas already announced.
The upper Hosston formation has a wonderful lithology - 80% Sandstone & only 20% shale. Just perfect for flow under pressure. The game is afoot !
You pays your money & .......................


----------



## Agentm

*SUGARLOAF-1, PRIMARY TARGET- WIRE-LINE LOG INTERPRETATION ​*[font=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Adelphi Energy Limited advises that wire-line logs were successfully run over the open hole section of the Sugarloaf-1 well between 16,998 feet (5,182 metres) and total depth of 20,896 feet (6,371 metres). 

Interpretation of wire-line logs over the primary target indicates that an aggregate of 90 feet (27.4 metres) of potential reservoir are gas saturated and may be capable of commercial production after fracture stimulation. 

Based on the log interpretation and the gas indications obtained while drilling, the well participants have elected to run and cement a production liner, fracture stimulate and test the zones of potential interest. The total cost of these operations is estimated to be US$2 million. 

By 6am Texas time on 3 December 2006, the production liner was in the process of being run to total depth prior to the well being prepared for temporary suspension so that the deep drilling rig can be released. 

Preparation of the well for fracture stimulation and flow testing will be carried out with a smaller work-over rig. An update on the timing of the fracture stimulation and flow testing operations will be provided when the equipment has been contracted. 

After the primary target has been tested the joint venture will make a decision on production testing the shallower carbonate reservoirs previously identified as potentially productive. 

[/font]


----------



## wallave

Agent M,  
whats your take on these results??
Appreciate your thoughts


----------



## Agentm

for me it changes everything,,

up until now i was happy with the austin, and a touch impatient on the JVP's not releasing any wireline info or being more candid regards their potential, all we have there is off market info and a lot of proposed wells...  but no real data..

To see them invest a further 2 mill on the fracing and workover says to me they are a whole lot more serious about the sands than ever before.

The wireline must have supported possibilties of productive numbers,, i am guessing but i assume the porosity must be at the 5% level and permability is unknown and nothing has been declared about the wirelines..

I must say for the first time i really am seeing the hosston sands as potentially a commercial proposition,  before i was just dreaming it and wishing it,, with each week more and more positive remarks coming from the anouncements and presentations,, now i am definately 60% a believer in the sands and 100% on the austin chalks.. as for sligo and edwards????  I am not writing them off the same as flintoff,  i think sligo has something, edwards is perhaps tight but not spoken about in any presentation..

today will become interesting,, my feeling is that less will be turning their backs on the share and perhaps a few more may begin to sense something??? 

i wont say i hear the elephants stomping, but i think they are gathering  in the mist!!


----------



## maverick11

well well well!  I must say confidence would have to be up after this announcement!  Hosston is looking good, and to go ahead and invest $2m is a very good indication.  Porosity must be ok and fracing such a deep well is not uncommon, so I am very confident indeed.  I agree with Agent m on this one...  Austin looking definite and perhaps the sligo has a bit of a surprise in store??  Not too sure edwards was that flash but should be good times ahead.


----------



## HOMER J

Sounds positive to me, cant see them spending another 2 million without good reason to. Guess we wait now. Nice to see EKA hitting more oil on bismil too.


----------



## Agentm

*SPUD OF ILSE-1 WELL

NEW TAITON PROSPECT​Key Point​*Antares Energy is pleased to announce the spudding of the Ilse-1 well at 12:00 hours on 1 December 2006 (local time). The well is anticipated to take 60 days (on a trouble free basis) to drill to the anticipated total depth of 17,300 feet (5,270 metres). Antares has a 25% working interest in the well.​*Background​*The Ilse-1 well is the first well to be drilled on the New Taiton prospect which is located in Wharton County, Texas, approximately 100km southwest of Houston. The prospect is a welldefined structural play targeting Wilcox Meek, B and C sands at a depth of 14,000 to 17,000 feet (4,270 metres to 5,180 metres). It is situated some 10km from, and on trend with, other existing fields which typically produce 5-7 BCF of gas per well from the same reservoirs being targeted at New Taiton.

The New Taiton prospect has mean potential reserves of 40 BCF of gas and an upside potential of 85 -100 BCF depending on how many of the stacked sands contain gas. The prospect is a robust trap clearly defined by 3D seismic and exhibits strong seismic attributes that correspond with the mapped structural closure. A field of this magnitude is likely to require multiple wells.

The joint venture partners are as follows:

S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. (operator) 30%

Antares Energy 25%

Adelphi Energy Limited 25%

Index Oil & Gas (USA) LLC 10%

Private USA interests 10%

Antares' dry-hole cost exposure is expected to be approximately USD 1.2 million, with an additional USD 0.4 million if the well is completed for production.

Mr. H. McLaughlin, Managing Director of Antares said:

“We are very excited that the Ilse-1 well has finally spud. This is a relatively low risk prospect with multiple potential gas horizons. We anticipate this well to take about 60 days to reach TD on a trouble free basis. ”​


----------



## olive_tree

Extract from Updated Shareholder Presentation:

"Shallow targets with mean 12mmbbls & 27BCF potential
(pre drill).

Potential pay zone of 28 metres intersected in shallow
section of well. Successful testing could significantly
increase reserve potential of shallow zone."

This is way the most upbeat comment by ADI to date on the drill.


----------



## maverick11

very bullish shareholder presentation has been posted.  Especially considering how much they have been playing everything down to date.  Conservative share value of $5+ with upside up to $13+.

Interesting to see they are sticking to their guns with 800BCF on primaries and indicating the secondaries as being much larger than anticipated.  Also contains some nice charts and good operational info.  Condensate in the secondaries indicated too.

Interesting how new tiation is always referred as "low risk".  Must be almost a sure thing to be able to give it such a title.

cheers


----------



## Agentm

i see the .80 on the austin chalks as the very least they will get.. 

.60 is great value,,, jump on if you like the stock but if your selling DYOR as i think each announcement from now on has the potential to add value upside to the sp.. 

I think there are a great deal of people buying today not because they think its a valueless share, but for the potential that the share can be.

As a long term buyer and holder of the stock i wont be letting go until we achieve the value the stock is  able to get, and for a bullish outlook on the primary that we today, and the beginning of the JVP's finally letting the market know the secondaries are worth way more than the .80 they started saying it was worth.. 

wont be selling for some time yet and will hold for the $5 value..


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

IMO they needed a BIGGER result in the P.T..

90ft doesn't leave much room for any downside on porosity & permeability.

i do think the share price is worth much more than 60cents though..

regards


----------



## Agentm

hey sandy,,

dont forget the austin chalks mate!!

i wonder if john campbell is still telling his followers to sell still??


its now a real case of reading between the lines and really understanding what goes on in the decision making processes.. 

Going ahead, means you are looking at commercial flows,, stopping, means that no matter how much you fraced, best case senario you wouldnt get commercial flow..

dont worry about size of plays anymore.. things are not as they have seemed before, as boundaries have changed and now the 2 million is coming in on the well and the flow testing is being done for very very good reasons..

if your unsure how its done, look it up, but the fact these guys are doing flow tests means something,, it actually means a great deal of something.. 

just wait a few weeks. you will begin to see how very gradually the market will awaken.. no elephants announced yet.. but i begin to hear a few trumpets!!

no need to keep the faith in this share, no faith or prayers needed now, its down to commercial reasons to do things as whats been found has been found, and what they are doing is not to find anything anymore, but to make money from what they have... and today you were told how they intend to do that.  

a good investor will know that and understand that and the sp is never is going to go south from this day on in my opinion!!


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

my money is on the shallow targets & N.Taiton..

only playing with approx 90ft in the P.T plus the gas readings from P.T have been pretty average, not sure how much more they'll get from fraccing..

if they get a trickle of gas from the deeper target it wont make much of a difference..

regards


----------



## djones

sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi agentm
> 
> my money is on the shallow targets & N.Taiton..
> 
> only playing with approx 90ft in the P.T plus the gas readings from P.T have been pretty average, not sure how much more they'll get from fraccing..
> 
> if they get a trickle of gas from the deeper target it wont make much of a difference..
> 
> regards





Theyre calculating on getting at least $2 million profit plus opportunity cost.


----------



## Agentm

my money is on for all those reasons too,,

today the elephants began to rumble a little..

for me its not possible to write off the primary, i know the JVP's are not writing them off and i hold for the $5.. I believe you will be very pleased with the adi share in the very near term.. 

look at it this way sandy,, you wouldnt really want your senario to pan out if your investing in adi, you would only want the best possible senario.. so even if your incorrect you will still win!!

I see a lot of money coming for the share now, which says to me the smart money is beginning to arrive..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well for my money the investor update is the most positive reading I have ever seen from ADI management.
Terms like "saturated" give me great hope on the porosity of SL and for ADI too give a dollar and figure for discoverys is something I feel they would only do if feeling confident.


----------



## The Snorkler

Hello good to see everyone is remaining bullish, as am I. Now for some negatives - I think the scary thing about the primary, if it is a goer is going to be the huge cost of each development well if they have to go this deep and then frac. I also imagine it will take a long time to develop because they need these special deep drilling rigs and these are likely to be in heavy demand. Once a well is constructed it will be a simple matter to hook it up to some flowline network for processing and sale. The secondaries however should be a lot simpler proposition requiring a smaller rig of which there are many in Texas so there should be some early cashflow from there.

As for New Taiton I am vary confident. The last time I saw this type of seismic data was in the Arc office and they were telling us how confident they were of the Xyris prospect. The structure looks the same as Xyris with Mondarra on the other side of the fault. And guess what they were right, a nice intersection of gas pay currently being produced from 2 wells (might have drilled another since I left).


----------



## fflintoff

"Potential pay zone of 28 metres intersected in shallow section of well. Successful testing could significantly increase reserve potential of shallow zone."

This is Austin of course. Don ´t forget that Charles had a team there at the wellhead as it flowed over that Sep weekend. Report on 22 Sep. Co-incidence ? No. Tipped off by TCEI. He mentioned 12% porosity. Where from ? Directly from TCEI as Charles is just an investor. Where else would he get this from unless he just made it up to tickle the fancy of his punters. Don ´t think so somehow.


----------



## sandybeachs

Agentm said:
			
		

> my money is on for all those reasons too,,
> 
> today the elephants began to rumble a little..
> 
> for me its not possible to write off the primary, i know the JVP's are not writing them off and i hold for the $5.. I believe you will be very pleased with the adi share in the very near term..
> 
> look at it this way sandy,, you wouldnt really want your senario to pan out if your investing in adi, you would only want the best possible senario.. so even if your incorrect you will still win!!
> 
> I see a lot of money coming for the share now, which says to me the smart money is beginning to arrive..




hi agentm

how about you put some figures on the table as too how you came up with $5.00..????

ie: whats the shallow targets worth, whats the primary target worth.

keep in mind ADI's Net Revenue Interest approx 15%.

personally i think it's highly unlikely they'll come up with 800bcf in the Hosston Formation.

he's an example.

ADI's Net Revenue Interest approx 15%

shallow target from ADI's estimates 12mmbls & 27bcf

12mmbls X 15% NRI = 1.8mmbls

1.8mmbls X US25bbl =US$45mm =AUD$56mm

27bcf X 15% NRI =4bcf X US$2.50 = US$10mm =AUD$13mm

total AUD$69mm divvy by 110mm share = .62cents

regards


----------



## Agentm

hello sandy..


this is entirely my own way of thinking on ADI

i think the austin chalks are definately bigger than anyone expected, and i feel the .80 is no longer in the equation..

what it ultimately gets is not known,, i currently feel double is not unreasonable.


You and i have different views on the hosston, for me i feel the 800 bcf equation is stll a possibility, so for me i am now in it for the $5 value there..

i feel there is disbelief out there on the austin chalks and the primary,, for me the austin chalks have no contest, they are the real deal.

on the primary, i think the JVP's didnt go to flow testing flogging a dead horse, they evaluated the wirelines and saw the reasons to do it and did it.

today i am 50% + on the hosston, still cant see any reason to discount it, and i feel the JVP's are very bullish on them now, and given that they have all the data in their camp, and have been spruiking forward plans for a few weeks now, my feeling is very optomistic on the sands now..

what will eventuate is not known until things are done, but for me i dont see any JVP announcing anything else other than a  massive green light on the hosston sands..

all ahead full is what is i see..

this is all IMHO and you have to DYOR on this stock,, i dont see any downside anywhere on the stock at all.. 

in terms of history on this stock the one thing i can see today is that ADI has never been in such a strong position..


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

as for spending the extra $2mm testing P.T

they'll get that back in buckets from the shallow targets, so why wouldn't you go that little extra. got nothing too lose.

all going well, i suspect at least 4 shallow producing wells before the middle of 2007.

if you combine S.L & N.T price increase today, looks pretty average.

i would have expect 10cents plus just for the New Taiton spudding

regards


----------



## Agentm

Hey sandy..

yes indeed, the austin chalks are totally seperate to the primary, with small rigs attacking the austing chalks, in my view it may be multiple rigs.. my suspicion is that the chalks may be in the far beyond the 20's and in the 100's BCF range.. far higher than the very conservative 27 bcf  or the upper 50 bcf P10 calculation..  my reasoning is that they were baffled by the size of the play in depth, as well as the  porosity.. my gut feeling is that its twice their wildest dream.. this is entirely speculation,, i am very bullish on the austin chalks as you well know..  

the sp today is great value i agree..  

I have yet to see any negative sentiment from any of the JVP on the sands. From every quarter and from other investors i hear only positive sentiment.

I think the share is on an positive climb, the fact the JVP have invested a further 2 million is no small matter. I can assure you it was not done on the basis that the austin chalks would deliver them back the costs of the flow testing.. The word i hear is exactly as i have said, the only basis for flow testing was on the extremely encouraging results from the wireline as stated in the presentation. The decision to do this was not taken lightly, and there had to be a lot of great numbers up for grabs for them to proceed..

Despite massive negativity to what is a world class well, the sands have huge acerage, and this is a monster prospect. Well costs are insignificant to the returns that will delivered on this project. this is plug and play stuff, with infistructure on the lease, pipes running smack accross the lease, electricity, and roads, flat land, an absolute dream prospect.

I think there is little doubt left out there that the share has little down side risk for quite some time.. the chalks have obvious potential and the sands are now a real contender.

We are no longer in exploration phase, this is now workover and production phase. make no mistake on what the announcements are telling you, this is the real deal from now on in..


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

you might think i'm being pain in the butt with some of my opposite views.

i'm not trying too be or sound argumentative. i'd rather take a conservative view until the flow rates are on the table. especially with P.T (i was hoping for at least 1,000ft, 90ft knocked the stuffing out of me)

but having said that, what i know at this point IMO ADI's worth at least $1 right now..so it's trading under the radar.

i'm sure the JVP's are jumping up and down on spot re: the shallow targets. perhaps a little cautious re: P.T

regards


----------



## maverick11

sandybeachs said:
			
		

> hi agentm
> 
> you might think i'm being pain in the butt with some of my opposite views.
> 
> i'm not trying too be or sound argumentative. i'd rather take a conservative view until the flow rates are on the table. especially with P.T (i was hoping for at least 1,000ft, 90ft knocked the stuffing out of me)
> 
> but having said that, what i know at this point IMO ADI's worth at least $1 right now..so it's trading under the radar.
> 
> i'm sure the JVP's are jumping up and down on spot re: the shallow targets. perhaps a little cautious re: P.T
> 
> regards




Sandy, a few posts back you calculated 62cps now you're saying $1!  C'mon man!

You have to read between the lines, remembering their reporting style... 90ft gas *saturated*...yeah, plus the rest!  I am 100% confident the austin is heaps larger than expected and still maintain the sligo has some unreported value too.  I am extremely confident on the hosston too for reasons already discussed.  The best part was yesterdays presentation confirming what has been speculated for a while now....$5+ (conservative) with an indication of being definately above at least $1.  This is also quite out of character for ADI considering they played it down for so long.  Truth is, SL is no longer speculation but the real deal and the cat cannot be kept in the bag much longer so to speak.

Anyways, good to see people are starting to wise up on this one.  My opinion is the same as Agentm's and from what I gather everything is as expected, if not better. I topped up today for the 5th time (will be eating rice this week) as I still see today as bargain prices.  I also wonder who really capitalised from mr campbell???


----------



## sandybeachs

maverick11 said:
			
		

> Sandy, a few posts back you calculated 62cps now you're saying $1!  C'mon man!
> 
> You have to read between the lines, remembering their reporting style... 90ft gas *saturated*...yeah, plus the rest!  I am 100% confident the austin is heaps larger than expected and still maintain the sligo has some unreported value too.  I am extremely confident on the hosston too for reasons already discussed.  The best part was yesterdays presentation confirming what has been speculated for a while now....$5+ (conservative) with an indication of being definately above at least $1.  This is also quite out of character for ADI considering they played it down for so long.  Truth is, SL is no longer speculation but the real deal and the cat cannot be kept in the bag much longer so to speak.
> 
> Anyways, good to see people are starting to wise up on this one.  My opinion is the same as Agentm's and from what I gather everything is as expected, if not better. I topped up today for the 5th time (will be eating rice this week) as I still see today as bargain prices.  I also wonder who really capitalised from mr campbell???




hi maverick

mate do you think i'm a Johnny come lately on ADI..?????

have a look on hotcopper early in the year March or so, see who was telling people about ADI..

ummmmmmmm...i think i know a little about ADI...

i might find one for ya..

MARCH IS THAT EARLY ENOUGH..


Subject get ready for pre-drill buy 
Stock Code ADI - ADELPHI ENERGY LIMITED 
Posted 25/03/06 7:43:30 PM 
Posted by sandybeachs - sandybeachs 
IP 60.230.xxx.xxx 
Hotcopper Radio ADI on BoardRoom Radio 
Post #973640 - 145 reads  
In Reply to msg #942465 

hi guys

as you know i have NO idea about oil/gas game..

BUT

stay tuned for a pre-drill buy.........

one of ADI's prospect that really caught my attention is New Taiton Prospect..

worth noting it's on the same trend as Strike's Shefcik & Webernick prospect..

and we've seen whats happened with Strike recently..

spoke with company today, if they hit paydirt they intend drilling further wells between 3-5 producing wells.

that would give them a fantastic cashflow..

ADI have an approx NRI 20%, this give them approx 8-17bcf interest..

found it's partners website worth looking at..(TAKE A PEEK AT IT'S WEBSITE)

http://www.muelrexp.com/

the downside is as yet NO drilling date.

company expects drilling will start late 2nd quarter...

plus you can add in the biggie SUGERLOAF PROSPECT..(more than a company maker, BUT EXTREMELY HIGH RISK).

so we have plenty of time no need too rush in...but just keep an eye on the share price.

please D.Y.O.R

regards


----------



## Agentm

hey sandy..

you dont believe in the primaries, its no big deal, then get your best return for your investment and be happy with your investment..

1.6 million shares traded today,, who ever sold today was happy with their price.. and i am happy for each one that sold and even happier for the buyers, as they are on a absolute winner imho.

look at each investment with a goal. and each has their own and each trade has a price  point and reason.

Today I am on the $5+ wait.   so its got some time still to go.

The share is easily worth $1 as ADI says, they are totally correct, and with hosston on to flow testing then production.  with the austin chalks busting to go.. 

think things through. why hasnt the JVP's announced when they flow test the secondaries?  there is so much you can understand by the fact that they are not announcing things. i'll give you some free thoughts, i dont need your opinion on them... think of all the things that will and wont happen based on the hosston sands being commercial. 

i remain bullish on the primary as long as certain things that can and cant happen do and dont occur..

If you wait for announcements to happen, then you are already behind, the fact that certain announcements are not being made means a great deal. The fact the JVP are doing flow testing on the primary means and very very great deal.. i cant stress enough how important the announcement to test commercial flow is sandy, but its only you that disbelieves that the JVP's have no clue about the primary. i dont follow your line of thinking as i dont see anyone behaving like the primary is not commercial.

I am a long termer, so i dont exit this week nor next week nor next month.. I keep close watch on the talk, on the language and the sentiment.

remember couchy sandy, remember the elephants???

the elephants are trumpeting sandy...  you have to start hearing them.. 

this stock is no longer an exploration stock, it is transitioning into the next phase as a producer, look at the language, look at the annual reports and understand the processes. Its now down to flow testing, numbers and getting value for the share..  forward planning.. busy days ahead..

best of luck with your adi investment.. we all want you to make some gains from it..

this is all IMHO and DYOR as ADI has a lot to offer on the upside and i cant see today any downside still..


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

""remember couchy sandy, remember the elephants???""

i wouldn't trust anyone i've never meet and especially over the internet..LOL

Couchie is just blowing his own trumpet, remember he has investors as well who like to hear a good story..

i'm not writing the Hosston Trend off just yet, but i'm very very cautious about it.

ohhhh..

hmmmm i've made some nice money on all of the aussie JVP's and NO doubt it will continue. know when to hold and know when to fold.

so you didn't take some money off the table when it hit a high 94cents then back to 57cents..????..LOL

regards


----------



## nioka

I've held some ADI shares for some time now. Getting in at the low 30s originally. I have been hot and warm (never cold) and have built up the numbers then sold some down and later bought back in. They must have been a great day trader's stock as I have made good profits from going up and down in numbers. After the last announcement I decided to increase again and after today's rise could take a good profit tomorrow.
BUT. There may be some elephants in the distance??? I don't want to miss out if there is and there will be nothing to lose by holding on now even if the elephants are minature ones. So I'm in now for the long run.


----------



## austrader02

From the limited experience i have on drilling, the signs are positive but in no way certain. Yes they have commited another 2mill which will enable them to frac and see how the well flows. At those depths, flow through that much compaction is not going to happen so fracing is the key which still doesnt ensure it will work. 

Often you frac and well to open up the fractures but as soon as you complete the jobs, the fractures compact again. I am sure these guys know what they are doing but just trying to keep the hype down that there is no guarantee that if the logs are great and they frac that it will be a success! Saying that, i am confident they will do well, now its a question of getting a rig.


----------



## Agentm

at these depths you would need some good numbers from the texas crude oil boys to want to frac and flow test. 

obviously many have their view on the well. and to call it dead. and do this without any knowledge of the wireline logs and what the perameters of the fracing decision were is not worth listening to.

My view remains the same, Austin chalks are exactly what couchy said, extremely good, and ADI has confirmed it, look back at the presentations and its all there. plenty of down rampers on the stock about today, but i dont see anyone taking them into consideration. i saw the stock esculate and increase in spite of a few very serious efforts by some to cast doubt on the successes of the sugarloaf well. All i  have seen is guessing, all unfounded, and completely contrary to announcements and sentiment from the JVP's. i cant follow the unfounded and irrational arguements that the primary isnt commercial, it is falling on deaf ears, and there are plenty who are astute enough to see through this and understand the well is a serious investment proposition. 

I take my hat off to the TCO boys and the JVP's efforts to keep the information correct and only announce success when it has happened.

We now have good enough numbers off the wireline to go to flow testing, and the market sees the potential and is very eager to get a piece of it.

The primary is now in the fracing/flow testing phase, and been taken extremely seriously by the JVP's.  its easy to take a punt and say there is nothing there, and then later say i told you so.. but for me i dont invest on those principles, they are fools principles, if you study the announcements, regularily talk to the management, keep in touch with people who are like you and have big stakes in the company, then the quality changes and you dont worry about downrampers.. 

i dont think the primary is being frac'd and flow tested as others do just because they believe the secondary can afford to fund it.. thats completely irrational.. if my money was with a company that behaved that way i would remove it immediately..  i also dont believe you can abuse someone who has an opinion by saying because you have been on HC longer than someone else then you have a better opinion or ability to judge someone else,  you never know, that person may well be a someone who has years of experience in the industry and may know a lot more than you.. 

The well is being run by very highly regarded operators, they have the experience in the region, and if you wanted anyone to operate and run the show on a well such as Sl you would have TCO in mind. If TCO says they are fracing and flow testing, its good enough for me!! Anyone here bothered to research and find out where TCO oil sit in terms of oil and gas production in texas alone?? 

if you want to guess and say the primary is dry, then so be it, but no one is listening to that type of hype, the announcements all say different, 

Well log results from Hosston reservoir indicate
​
potentially productive gas saturated intervals totaling 27

metres in aggregate.

i say yet again, the decision to flow test is and was taken not on the flippant and unsubstantiated rumours of some downrampers, but on the basis of the wireline logs and the ability for the sands to be commercially productive, do not believe anything else that you hear from anyone, the well is seriously being looked at as being commercial in the primary, and the texas crude oil operator and the JVP's are not gambling or punting, they made their decision on sound economic and geological reasons. 

if you on the stock then enjoy what it gives you, if you considering getting into it, DYOR and look hard at the announcements, dont believe someone on the basis of how long they have been on a chat site, look at what the company is announcing and planning and make you decision on that information. You dont throw an extra 2+ mill at a well unless your very certain its got a very good chance of being commercial.

i maintain this stock is on the verge of the transition stage from explorer to producer, and the money coming in for it is understanding that. I will remain completely bullish on the secondary and remain bullish on the primary as long as the JVP's are..


​


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

if i've seen it once i've seen it a thousand times..!!!!

if investors thought Mondays announcement/logs results were so spectacular you couldn't buy ADI below $1.00 or even perhaps under $2.00

over many years when i've seen punters think results have been so good the share price went up like a rocket. and i mean like a ROCKET..

so i ask this question to agentm & co. 

so why didn't the share price rocket..????, because i think most expected a better result in the primary target and are now being a little cautious & awaiting flow rate tests.

also given ADI announced spudding of New Taiton Prospect which no doubt would have been reported in the oil sector rags probably accounted for most of the recent price rise.

if i can get $1 plus in the near future i'll be one happy camper..

regards


----------



## Sean K

WOW, great day yesterday. Good work guys for keeping the faith. Must admit I was more sceptical on where this was going. Breaking up from the range is pretty good.


----------



## tomcat

I'm with you on this one Agentm. The presentation spurred a lot of interest and there are already punters lining up today. Thanks for the all the info, know a couple of other investors who have sold there grandmothers to get in on this one...hopefully happy days ahead


----------



## maverick11

just thought I'd add when I was involved in fracing underground coal seams (for methane drainage), when we finally got underground to mine them they would fall apart like powdered snow.  SL is different from this, but i still maintain a high level of confidence.  It's not uncommon to frac wells as deep as this one, in fact it would have been unusual if they didn't need to.  Also remember, there are plenty of wells around as deep as SL which are producing, so nothing out of the ordinary here as far as i'm concerned.  Just have to wait for the results now.


----------



## maverick11

new taiton @ 1,960ft

...90% of gas and oil wells in the US undergo fracturing.


----------



## HRL

Lets not get too excited here chaps.  If we have learnt anything from ADI it's to be calm and patient.  Nobody is doubting this is a good prospect but we could sit around debating future sp prices all day and it would get us nowhere. I'm not too scientific with my trading just yet but I know what makes a good business and the fundamentals of this company are very good.  Sound management, solid cashflow, experienced partners, good future projects and a clear vision of where they want to be and how they intend to get there.  How high the price goes and how long it takes is anybodies guess.  This is the stockmarket and anything can happen... and frequently does!  I daytraded this stock in the 30c-50c bracket and was well happy.  When it hit 90c I took a closer look and bought back in between 60-80c and am holding indefinitely now but I don't want to make any predictions.  

A couple of other things though.  If announcements are not being made that are market sensitive or potentially the friendly folk at the ASX will be watching and asking questions.  Also, my experience tells me when you shoot over budget by as much as these guys just did you better be damn sure you're onto something...


----------



## maverick11

Just thought i'd give a brief insight into fracturing.  Typically water with a high viscosity additive (or sometimes diesel) is pumped down the well in bursts of extreme pressure.  This opens up small fractures in the rock extending for up to 200ft.  They usually use a propping agent such as sand which is pumped down with the fluids and holds the fractures open once the high pressure fluids are released.  Another more recent method which I don't know much about involves using combustible propellants to open up fractures.  I doubt they would be using this method however.


----------



## HOMER J

sandybeachs said:
			
		

> so you didn't take some money off the table when it hit a high 94cents then back to 57cents..????..LOL
> 
> regardS




Hey Sandy. If you can pick the highs and lows of a stock please tell us the next ones LOL. Long termers also have capital gains implications to consider if they can avoid selling for a year.....

cheers


----------



## Agentm

*1. Sugarloaf 1 Well (Adelphi 20% interest) 

*[font=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Since our last report on 4 December 2006, 5 inch production liner has been successfully set and cemented at 19,791 feet (6,034 metres) and has been tied back into the casing at 17,000 feet (5,183 metres). The drilling rig is presently laying down drill pipe. ​[/font]*2. New Taiton Prospect (Adelphi 25% interest) 

*[font=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]The Ilse-1 well spudded on 1 December 2006 (local time) and is currently drilling ahead at a depth of 1,960 feet (598 metres). Planned total depth is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres). ​ASX releases will continue to be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material matters which require an earlier release. 

[/font] 
Ilse is going ahead nicely, and laying down drill pipe.. 

I think the steady gains yesterday is an indication of just how many grandmothers were sold recently to get on this stock.

ADI had stated the $1 price for thier share is fair value, so i expect the bullish sentiment on that price alone speaks highly of what they think about sugarloaf. To me it is in no way an outlandish short term stop point whilst in transition. 

ADI have it in mind to pump up the value of their share.. as an investor i know what that means..  

for me the announcements are as they should be and indicate still a very positive and bullish sentiment on the primary, with the secondary being completely ignored for the time being.. yet on all presentations the secondary was always talked up the most..  if you do a little research and think it through a little and you will understand more about the real bullish sentiment on the primary and why the very very prospective secondary cannot be currently tested... thats it.. no more hints.. i have said enough..


----------



## sandybeachs

hi agentm

any truth in the rumour that you're TRADE4PROFIT..????

regards


----------



## Agentm

i dont know how to say this sandy, but i find your preoccupation with me a touch fanatical and very disconcerting.. if you want to place personal messages on the boards . i may suggest using the pm facility, you have done this before to me, but in all your pm's you have never been bold enough to ask me who i am, perhaps you would be equally disturbed if someone was hell bent on determining your identity. it concens me that you are doing so.. and why so pubically??  take what i am saying quite seriously sandy and desist from enquiry about my personal details!!!

re the austin chalks, i am posting what eka announced on the 31st july 06

A recent gas-condensate discovery by competitors has

been made in one of these shallower limestones within a few kilometers of

the Sugarloaf well location. Seismic and nearby old well data suggests

that the discovery is likely to extend into Eureka’s ground. Note that

Eureka holds 100% of the deep lease rights below the Sligo Formation and

holds lease rights to targets shallower than the Sligo Formation over

approximately 30% of the prospect area.​ it shows me how competative the secondary is and the reasons for the JVP's announcements of them in the manner they have been put out. Texas is highly competative and the value of the secondary is beyond any doubt very very understated accross the board for very very sound reasons.. signing acerage is highly compatative and complex business in texas.. The JVP's have announced the play and done everything within the rules of the asx, its just for a layman very hard to see the language of success in the highly sanitised and very conservative announcements.

I remain convinced the chalks hold spectacular reserves, and remain very convinced and as bullish on the primary as ADI currently are.


----------



## cicak_kupang

How long is it likely to be before a smaller rig is sourced and moved on to the SL site?  I understand that there are plenty of these smaller rigs available, and when are we likly to see flow testing do you guys think???  Hope it doesn't hold things up too much...


----------



## Agentm

i would say the timing of the workover rig will be announced shortly, cant imagine the rigs will be many months away,, If TCO are on the ball they will have something available to them pretty soon.

I see adi are coming your way in the near future, you will be able to visit the site and give us site reports!!!


----------



## sandybeachs

hi guys

elephant rampers on the loose..

i'd like to see a few back up their claims with some real hard facts rather than quoting from presentations..

regards


----------



## Euler

I don't normally post in these threads as stocks are not my forte except for the big blues .... however, this thread caught my interest in between waiting for the SPI to move.  As a long term holder of ADI ... been one of those put it in the bottom drawer speckys .... I'm interested in all your comments made so far.
If I can be a P-I-T-B (pain in the uknowwhere!) ... could you learned tech savvy traders in oil/gas give 1/2 a dozen points (more if you like) on the pros to hold ADI.  And for the against case .... can someone give a similar number of points for selling now.  Keen to hear the two cases .... cheers.


----------



## sandybeachs

Euler said:
			
		

> I don't normally post in these threads as stocks are not my forte except for the big blues .... however, this thread caught my interest in between waiting for the SPI to move.  As a long term holder of ADI ... been one of those put it in the bottom drawer speckys .... I'm interested in all your comments made so far.
> If I can be a P-I-T-B (pain in the uknowwhere!) ... could you learned tech savvy traders in oil/gas give 1/2 a dozen points (more if you like) on the pros to hold ADI.  And for the against case .... can someone give a similar number of points for selling now.  Keen to hear the two cases .... cheers.




hi euler

StockAnalysis report yesterday hit the nail on the head, conservative and immediately achievable initial target of just 120 Bcfe.from both the shallow and deeper zones,

although he does consider 800bcfe possible if the P.T comes in.. 

my "conservative" share price based upon being successful at Sugarloaf & New Taiton approx $1.80.

as usual take care

regards


----------



## Agentm

hey euler

i cant help you on the points as the sharp pointy bit on the chart is kinda going north too much to worry about it...

i have exhausted myself looking for any negatives on the share, and to discount the well, and to discount its announcements, and as everything has unfolded the fact is now that its going onto flow testing. i cant find anything to say the well isnt a success, i have the bullish sentiment of a long term investor who is extremely happy with the progress so far. if you asked me if you should hold or sell,,i would buy them from you..

the share seems to be getting upward motion on the potential of a positive flow test. Add in a few positive reports on new taiton on the way through the next weeks, it all seems to add to the possibilty the sp may hold on to its gains a lot more than before.. thats what i hope for..  in the beginings of a transition to producer, so hold on as the share takes you on a nice journey.. 

Good pick as a specky i would say, well done..  all imho


----------



## fflintoff

cicak_kupang said:
			
		

> How long is it likely to be before a smaller rig is sourced and moved on to the SL site?  I understand that there are plenty of these smaller rigs available, and when are we likly to see flow testing do you guys think???  Hope it doesn't hold things up too much...




Stock Analysis states fraccing in Jan so rig has been sourced I guess.



"Adelphi Energy Activity
Arc currently has a 26.3% shareholding Adelphi Energy, and this will increase to 30% when it converts its 8.75m 25c options in January 2007.

Adelphi represents a high leverage explorer with current exposure to projects in the US, Yemen and Australia. In the near term the focus is on Texas where the company appears to have achieved commercial success at Sugarloaf and has commenced drilling of New Taiton.

Adelphi has a 20% interest in the recently completed Sugarloaf 1 well. This was a very deep (+6,000m) well that encountered two potentially commercial gas horizons. The deeper Hosston zone was estimated as a large 800 BCF target (pre drill) and an aggregate of 27m of gas saturated intervals were encountered. In addition a potential pay zone of 28m was encountered in a shallower section of the well.

There is a good probability of achieving a positive commercial outcome from the well. This will be determined by late January, with fraccing of the Hosston proposed for early-mid January, followed by production testing.

Adelphi has a 25% interest in the recently spudded New Taiton well, testing a 40 BCF target. The drilling is scheduled to reach the target around late January and management rate this as a lower risk prospect and are indicating a 50% probability of success."


----------



## Ken

Hartleys value this at 1.63

And potentially 7.10 if everything goes well.

Amazing.

Good luck for holders.  

First I have seen them and up a lazy 10 percent.


----------



## HOMER J

Looking good today. Could break out nicely with a new high close of 84.5c or better....


----------



## tomcat

Hartleys latest update...nothing new however except further encouragement for the bulls


----------



## kevro

New week for ADI amongst others.

Whats expected this week. Will we get any news or are a we few weeks off for any price sensitive information.


----------



## yogi-in-oz

Hi folks,

ADI ..... a gap-up, with sustained volume last week,
was very encouraging ... especially as the next 
positive time cycle falls into place tomorrow ..... 

     11122006 ... significant and positive - finances (???)

     22122006 ... positive spotlight on ADI

     27122006 ... more positive news, expected here.


     15012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

     16012007 ... short rally here ???

     19012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

26-29012007 ...  major and negative cycle here
                          - finance-related ???

     02022007 ... significant and negative news expected.

     19022007 ... negative spotlight on ADI

     21022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

     26022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

     ..... looking further ahead, ADI should be really
     on the boil in December 2007.

More later.

happy days

  yogi



=====       

.


----------



## chops_a_must

What do you base that on Yogi? Or... how do you work out those things?


----------



## yogi-in-oz

Hi chops,

..... you can thank Mr Gann and Sepharial for their
astroanalysis of the markets and their theories on  
"vibration", attributable to each stock ..... 

Just google Gann and Sepharial for truckloads of
good information.

happy days

 yogi


----------



## chops_a_must

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi chops,
> 
> ..... you can thank Mr Gann and Sepharial for their
> astroanalysis of the markets and their theories on
> "vibration", attributable to each stock .....
> 
> Just google Gann and Sepharial for truckloads of
> good information.
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi



Lol!

No wonder your forecasts for next year are so negative.


----------



## Agentm

i get the feeling the sentiment on the stock remains positive.

for me the flowtesting is a mere formality, I cant and wouldnt discount that TCO didnt do anything other than look for the best case areas for fracing in the primary, and having done that they have had very some very low risk criterium and cut offs to make the call on the workover, they would have been brutal in their numbers and made it so that only commercial flow eventualities would be used to calculate and justiify the process and spend the 2 mill. with the JVP's and to go to the workover..

i would say that because its a wildcat, and to stop any mad speculation, only the best case plays were announced, and there could be many more shows and plays that were made but not announced and that many of those could be potentially commercial plays also after workover. its unlikely the exact number of shows and plays would have been announced, adi has never denied they didnt announce all show,  as with the GDN senario being played out, it is very obvious what sort of damage you can do to both your reputation and the sp should you reveal everything on a wildcat. 

over all, the only plays announced were the obvious commercial plays, and those have now been heavily scrutinised, and from them they have wittled it down to places of interest that they would know are only going to flow commercial rates.. later i believe they would be looking closer at other areas, but currently we are going to get commercial flow at very good numbers in my opinion.. 

Its been very quiet from start to finsh on SL with most of the hype coming from the forums, some crazy guy called agent m constantly telling everyone that the sugarloaf prospect was worth a good look... and then since drilling has been completed we can see that the stockbrokers are now up to speed on the situation and quietly spreading the word..


There is no doubt in my mind that the ability of TCO to deliver commercial flows on sugarloaf is well within their capability and expertise..


Its a fine sience, and the geology of this masssive play is not as well known, so the imminent flowtest will give the JVP's the clear ability to change the status of the well from a wildcat to a new "discovery"... once that is announced the excitement of a new play type in the hosston sands will be very very exciting.. i imagine many will start looking around for similar plays..

The absolute success of the well so far has been based on the idea of going for multi level plays when drilling to balance risk. The idea is and was sound, but when you get success in all zones of interest then suddenly you have a market unable to understand the value of the find..

hartleys did a great attempt to remain extremely conservative when trying to value it. and for me i am excited to be invested in such a world class play. 

I imagine the workover rig will be as good as the drilling rig, and the crew will be as good as it gets, the significance of the find is too important to leave anything to chance, and the long extended  wait for the best rig and crew to drill sugarloaf will be replicated, i believe, in the case of the workover crew.
I cant imagine anything less than the latest and most up to date technology will be utilised from this point on..


as an investor i continue to accumulate and will do so some more as soon as i can, allowing for 12 month cut off dates having severely restricted my current buy in program...


----------



## Agentm

From the ARQ asx announcement today

Title: Open Briefing . ARC Energy. Recent Drilling Success & Program

corporatefile.com.au

ARC has a 26% interest in the ASX-listed Adelphi Energy. Adelphi’s share price has performed very strongly in the last 3 months. What are the various initiatives Adelphi is pursuing at the moment?

Adelphi has had considerable success drilling large, deep prospects in the Gulf Coast of the US. The current well, Sugarloaf 1, *is a gas discovery that is yet to be tested*. Adelphi expects Sugarloaf 1 to be tested in the next six to eight weeks and, given the log data, *we have some confidence that the zones will flow gas at a commercial rate*. However, *it does need to be tested before being declared a commercial discovery*. Adelphi has also just spudded another well, Ilse 1, on a prospect called New Taiton. New Taiton is in a highly prospective area although it’s a smaller prospect than Sugarloaf. It has a well developed seismic signature and we’re hopeful it will be a gas discovery as well.


----------



## cicak_kupang

Agentm said:
			
		

> From the ARQ asx announcement today
> 
> Title: Open Briefing . ARC Energy. Recent Drilling Success & Program
> 
> corporatefile.com.au
> 
> ARC has a 26% interest in the ASX-listed Adelphi Energy. Adelphi’s share price has performed very strongly in the last 3 months. What are the various initiatives Adelphi is pursuing at the moment?
> 
> Adelphi has had considerable success drilling large, deep prospects in the Gulf Coast of the US. The current well, Sugarloaf 1, is a gas discovery that is yet to be tested. Adelphi expects Sugarloaf 1 to be tested in the next six to eight weeks and, given the log data, we have some confidence that the zones will flow gas at a commercial rate. However, it does need to be tested before being declared a commercial discovery. Adelphi has also just spudded another well, Ilse 1, on a prospect called New Taiton. New Taiton is in a highly prospective area although it’s a smaller prospect than Sugarloaf. It has a well developed seismic signature and we’re hopeful it will be a gas discovery as well.




Positive report for ADI, and it sure high lights that ARQ is under valued, not just because the market has not yet factored the ADI part in, but because of the recent success from ARQ's drilling at Erimia and Jingemia.  With Yemen due in Feb and Spudding of Strokes bay in April, this share sure has a lot of upside too.


----------



## maverick11

finally the "d" word starting to be used     Just confirming SL even further.

Obviously has huge economical and commercial implications... good times ahead


----------



## Agentm

great buying opportunities still,  the sp is low, and way undervalued.. I know i am taking advantage and many others no doubt are too.. nice christmas present to myself!!


The nicest thing about this share is apart from sitting on one massive world classs gas discovery, the secondaries have yet to be revealed.. and they are massive in size also.  which makes the downside of this share negligable and the upside all so much more pleasant..

if you can think of any one share that is currently going to commercial flow testing on a potential 1.5 tcf target thats worth .80 please let me know..


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

There have been a few decent opportunities to trade in and out of ADI in recent months.
Have you just remained holding the whole time have you AgentM?, which begs the question why? or do you just ramp to the innocent?!
Your posts are repetitive at the least despite clear profitable exit opportunities, you just ramp, ramp and ramp


----------



## Broadside

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> There have been a few decent opportunities to trade in and out of ADI in recent months.
> Have you just remained holding the whole time have you AgentM?, which begs the question why? or do you just ramp to the innocent?!
> Your posts are repetitive at the least despite clear profitable exit opportunities, you just ramp, ramp and ramp




who has 20/20 vision except in hindsight as to what are short term highs? when ADI was 90c who was to know it would retrace when it could just as easily have continued above $1?  if you have a medium-long term view that it is worth a lot more than 90c why would you sell at that point in time? there are many ways to trade the market and not all of them are scalping a few cents when there are dollars to be made freeballing

hindsight is always perfect, fwiw I believe Agent M will be fully vindicated in his optimism


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

This stock is whipped around on low volumes and I am just stating the facts.
Today's SP is not cheap as AgentM suggests, thats a blatant ramp  , as he has done many times.


----------



## Broadside

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> This stock is whipped around on low volumes and I am just stating the facts.
> Today's SP is not cheap as AgentM suggests, thats a blatent ramp  , as he has done many times.




Can you explain why it isn't cheap today? what is your rationale?


----------



## Gspot

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> There have been a few decent opportunities to trade in and out of ADI in recent months.
> Have you just remained holding the whole time have you AgentM?, which begs the question why? or do you just ramp to the innocent?!
> Your posts are repetitive at the least despite clear profitable exit opportunities, you just ramp, ramp and ramp




 I haven't contributed before to this thread, as I'm not as informed/educated like most seem to be. However I have appreciated whatever AgentM has posted, whether it's ramp or not it's upto date and informative. 
 By the way freeballing whose the threesome?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Broadside said:
			
		

> Can you explain why it isn't cheap today? what is your rationale?




Hype from a potential primary has been, first SP push, then a continuation of hype enabled second SP push and unless they come up trumps some time soon this one will fizzle and settle on the charts. 

This is only my opinion and I feel ADI is fair value at around 50 to 60 cents on the secondary alone. A succesful primary will see it rocket and I will be looking for the break then, ATM my moneys elsewhere.

Totally disagree that theirs been only cents to be made on ADI in recent months, theirs been 40 percent trades on a few occasions and other decent ones also  . Their returns not to be snuffed at and I'm happy to have traded them once or twice.

By the way I hope ADI rocket for all you old faithful holders


----------



## Agentm

I tend to agree with ADI's line that their share is worth $1 ish easy.. i feel todays prices are great value and continue to accumulate, nothing dishonest in that, and its my risk so i face a loss if things dont turn out, i am not being deceptive or manipulating anything to my advantage, infact the more i accumulate the larger the risk and the bigger the dissadvantage can be.

Plenty of people out there who are obviously upset if you like a stock and post info on it. i keep buying in on it, i cant see anyone putting up any views on why the stock is not worth the price it trades at today, just the usual critique and finger pointing on ramping but no viewpoints or insights are being added with it.

There are some who view positive sentiment as ramping, but i follow the ADI bullishness and positive sentiment and dont view my self as dishonest and only post my own point of view and information i can source. The information earlier from ARQ came from an email i got from them which i believe was posted on the ASX.  I view the source as sound and the information as very correct. I have never sold an ADI share and wont until it attains its full value for the discoveries so far achieved. There is quite some time to go before that is happening. $5 is my target price currently. if anyone can show me where i am being dishonest about ADI and show me how i am making financial advantage from it by buying more of the share myself please let me know how? I want everyone to make money on adi and if you do invest then great and if your selling and happy then thats great too.

swindle? dishonest? exploitation? what part of ARQ's announement i posted was any of those? and to say i am buying more ADI is swindling dishonest exploitation? i dont follow...

perhaps if your a director and declare a discovery, dont release wirelines and sell your shares at $1.20 could be viewed with a little bit of sceptisism, but your drawing a long bow to say i can have any effect on the ADI sp and be viewed as a swindling dishonest exploiter of ADI stock by saying i buy it is way off with the faries..


*ramp2
*_noun_ 


1. *slang* 
A swindle, especially the exploitation of a special situation to increase the price of a commodity.

_verb_ ramped, ramping


1. *slang* 
To rob or swindle.
2. _commerce._ 
To increase greatly (the price of eg shares, etc), usually dishonestly and for financial advantage.

Form: ramp up (usually)

*Derivative*: ramping
_noun_


The practice of causing large false increases in the prices of shares, etc by dishonest means.


----------



## Broadside

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Hype from a potential primary has been, first SP push  a continuation of hype enabled second SP push and unless they come up trumps some time soon this one will fizzle and settle on the charts.
> 
> This is only my opinion and I feel ADI is fair value at around 50 to 60 cents on the secondary alone. A succesful primary will see it rocket and I will be looking for the break then, ATM my moneys elsewhere.
> 
> Totally disagree that theirs been only cents to be made on ADI in recent months, theirs been 40 percent trades on a few occasions and other decent ones also  . Their returns not to be snuffed at and I'm happy to have traded them once or twice.
> 
> By the way I hope ADI rocket for all you old faithful holders




fair enough freeballing, I have made good (paper) returns going long but have not locked in any profits because it has not yet reached what I think it can and will within a short time frame, I choose not to take profit until I get 12 month CGT relief but if you can pick short term trends and profit from them, kudos to you.  From what I have heard and seen, secondaries are worth a lot more than 60c but obviously we need to see flow testing, and I also believe Hosston has value, maybe not the big one we were hoping for in a best case scenario, but something substantial nonetheless.  And I would also attribute some value to their upcoming projects and spud last week.  For that reason I think anything sub $1 is good value.  But in the short term, the market disagrees.


----------



## stereo21

Looks like flow testing won't happen until late January.  A little bit longer to wait...


----------



## Agentm

just bought in again this morning, so have enjoyed the climb,, not sure if it will hold or fold.. 

the stock got quite a run today.. compared to the JVP's, must indicate the money is coming in as the stockbrokers start selling their wares and clients become confident to invest. I imagine the stock will continue to turn over for some time in the short term, and further positive drilling reports may see some further gains.. perhaps the $1 ADI suggested retail price is becoming a reality..


----------



## Dukey

Sheesh SecretAgentMan....
You better leave some shares for the other punters!!  
- must just about have a seat at the board by now huh ??

Jus gammin dude - go your hardest. It`ll be well worth it in the end.
Wish I could get more myself... but fully invested just now.


-dukey


----------



## barney

Dukey said:
			
		

> Sheesh SecretAgentMan....
> You better leave some shares for the other punters!!
> - must just about have a seat at the board by now huh ??
> 
> Jus gammin dude - go your hardest. It`ll be well worth it in the end.
> Wish I could get more myself... but fully invested just now.
> 
> 
> -dukey




Howdy Dukeman,  Hows the rusty strings going??  If your desparate I can send you a new set!!  

I actually expected ADI to slowly retrace over the next couple of weeks due to the JANUARY testing ............... bit of a bonus to see the SP head back up a bit (wonder if we'll ever see .70 cents again??  ... lets hope not!!)   Bit like you Duke ... wish I could afford more, but a small nest egg will have to do for now.         Good luck all.  Barney


----------



## nioka

If most of the value is in Sugarloaf why is AUT today at 55c, EKA the same with a much smaller interest, while ADI is 88c and has reached 90c. Time to sell ADI and switch to AUT again? Trading back and forth has been good so far on these. ????????? any suggestions? Is ARQ a good buy at $1.40 on the same basis?


----------



## Agentm

sorry to say dukey i still am thirsty for it.. bought again today, last time this year i feel, and fully expect, and dont care either, to see a fall. The volume i feel is the reason for the rise and not on the announcements. There was a road show recently so i think the investors are coming in at the moment. I have more in reserve for later, if things go real low in january then i will be back.. i know others are like me ready to pounce if the sp goes south too much.. plenty of things in the next 4 weeks will give the share alift, and not much downside to the share as far as i can see, keeping in mind i am more than confident on the primary and 100% on the secondary. still happy at todays prices to allow for the short term ups and downs, and as the price is steady at the moment on the .90 area i imagine it may settle thereabouts.. but expect higher if the volumes are maintained 

the volume is definately on the adi stock and AUT is very undervalued i would think. But ADI has the spare cash (14 mill?)and NT on the run, so maybe a little of the rise is in the knowlege they dont need to go to the market in the short term and the others have to go immediately as the development of the secondary and the primary is going to be pretty massive in size and numbers of rigs.. So perhaps the AUT price reflects lack of confidence due to tight cashflow, but none the less i see it as value for those who like the stock. i have my own views on AUT and EKA being the same directors and on the same well, so i cant invest that way, but plenty can make gains with careful and clever movements.

I wonder how different the NT boys will be compared to the luxury of having a crew like we had on sugarloaf?? time will tell..

homer. i cleared my mail,,sorry about that


----------



## Agentm

Extract from mpex daily 4th Dec..



> Hope for gas production as partners
> 
> move to test Sugarloaf
> 
> Adelphi and fellow listed partners Eureka and Aurora have been sufficiently encouraged by the information seen to date at the ultra deep Sugarloaf-1 well on the Texas Gulf Coast to justify throwing extra funds to the tune of US$2mil into the kitty for further evaluation procedures.
> 
> Open hole logs over a 1189m interval from 5182m to the total depth of 6371m indicates that a 27.4m gas saturated interval in the primary Hosston target could possibly be capable of sustaining production after frac stimulation.
> 
> The next step for the JV, operated by Texas Crude Energy, is to complete the well prior to contracting a smaller unit to fracture and flow test the logged zone to determine commerciality.
> 
> Whether the potential 28m of gas shows encountered in the shallower target, which had pre-drill estimates of 12mil bbls oil or 72BCF gas, will be production tested will be decided after outcomes of the deeper tests are known.
> 
> Sugarloaf spudded on Aug 18 and has taken 108 days to reach the massive TD of +6300m plus run and interpret wireline logs. The original prognosed time for the well to hit TD was early Nov - a month less than what has actually played out.
> 
> Regardless of the outcome at the giant 800BCF- 4.3TCF Sugarloaf well, Adelphi has moved seamlessly into another US drill with a new look JV team, this time including listed party Antares Energy, to spud another onshore well in Wharton County Texas.
> 
> The Isle-1 well on the New Taiton prospect could seem like a baby compared to Sugarloaf, with estimated reserve targets up to 100BCF and averaging 40BCF in a number of stacked sands.
> 
> However, offsetting the lesser reserves target, is the fact that the drill is considered low risk, with the trap clearly defined on 3D seismic and the well to be tapping into a proven gas producing horizon.
> 
> Isle-1 will take around 60-days given a good run to penetrate the Wilcox B and C sands on its way to the proposed TD of 5270m. Fields only 10km away from the site that have been completed in the same target zone are producing gas at rates around 5-8MMcfd and contain reserves around 25BCF. The New Taiton JV, where Adelphi and Antares each hold a 25% interest, is headed by S. Lavon Evans Operating Company holding 30%, with locals Index Oil & Gas and private parties holding the remainder.
> 
> Not one to keep all its eggs in one zip code, Adelphi will be undertaking a much larger exploration operation next year in its acreage onshore Yemen, where the company holds an 8.5% interest in Oil Search-operated Blocks 7 & 74. PSA’s over the two areas were finalised by the government during last quarter, with the JV now awaiting formal execution of the permits which is expected to occur early next year.
> 
> Once formally awarded, the partners will commence the exploration phase in blocks, including seismic acquisition starting mid next year, and a program of seven wells targeting the Qishn and Saar sandstones or their equivalents kicking off in 2008.
> 
> A positive indicator in the interim is that OMV has started the development of its Al Nilam and Habban oil discoveries, which are only a few kms from Block 7. Al Nilam is expected to come onstream at an initial rate of 11,000BOPD, and the development of these fields means there is now production and pipeline infrastructure close by should a discovery be made in Adelphi and Oil Search’s Block 7.
> 
> Adelphi was trading up $0.025 at $0.615 on volumes just over 1mil while  Sugarloaf partner Eureka was up $0.01 at $0.56 (+272,000) and Aurora was down $0.035 at $0.53 (+195,000).
> 
> New Taiton participant Antares was up $0.025 at $0.675 (+529,000) in the hours after the announcements.




you have probably seen it all, no real news in it

seems the news is spreading to all a whole new group of investors, and buying in is definately been on the agenda.

interesting that adi considers it a low risk well and antares in their investor presentation consider it medium risk in their profile..

all quiet on the western front in any case..


----------



## yogi-in-oz

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ..... a gap-up, with sustained volume last week,
> was very encouraging ... especially as the next
> positive time cycle falls into place tomorrow .....
> 
> 11122006 ... significant and positive - finances (???)
> 
> 22122006 ... positive spotlight on ADI
> 
> 27122006 ... more positive news, expected here.
> 
> 
> 15012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> 16012007 ... short rally here ???
> 
> 19012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> 26-29012007 ...  major and negative cycle here
> - finance-related ???
> 
> 02022007 ... significant and negative news expected.
> 
> 19022007 ... negative spotlight on ADI
> 
> 21022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> 26022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> ..... looking further ahead, ADI should be really
> on the boil in December 2007.
> 
> More later.
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi
> 
> =====







Hi folks,

ADI ..... as per post above, we will be alert for some
positive news over the next couple of days ..... 

happy days

  yogi



=====


----------



## Agentm

yogi.  i dont think your predictions will be accurate in the coming months at all,, i see only very large upsides from this point on..

can you do some predictions on the directors of EKA? whether they will learn anytime soon how to announce a oil column properly and to how to properly and adequately announce finds in a manner that will not shock their SP by 20%... in a single day..

good management practices can make a huge difference to the sp..

I cant believe the differences between the wild predictions and guesses EKA gave out on the 18th and the ones they gave yesterday.. I dont like it one bit when directors behave that way.. the announcement on the 18th need not have been made, as they were guessing and very very misleading and the one yesterday has definately been watered down to make a very bad situation still look promising, when infact it may have been from the begining a case of not much to show at all. 

I see AUT has already gone to the market to raise capital, EKA will soon have to do the same, it concerns me what impact those SP's will have now on the ADI sp..

in the next few weeks we get a the announcement of the workover rig and then perhaps some news on the gas shows at new tiaton. It will be soon after that the flow tests will be announced and the long awaited announcement of the discovery. Some newbies like eka can go all hype and announce with fanfare all sorts of promising finds, but you can immediately see how well contained the ADI sp is to the reality of the situation compared to what happens when you hype things and announce oil columns that are not there..


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:
			
		

> I see AUT has already gone to the market to raise capital, EKA will soon have to do the same, it concerns me what impact those SP's will have now on the ADI sp..




Agentm,

How do you think AUT's SP will fare if there is a signicant discovery at Sugarloaf factoring in the capital raising?  Hartley's base ADI's SP at $4.5 based on a 800bcf commercial find. Have you seen any figures for AUT?

Cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well todays West Australian claiming Petsec have intersected 6.1m of gas with up too 400bcf so ADI has 28m of gas in main target where does that leave ADI in terms of gas found ?
I know all situations differ porosity etc etc but make it all sound promising


----------



## Lucky_Country

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Well todays West Australian claiming Petsec have intersected 6.1m of gas with up too 400bcf so ADI has 28m of gas in main target where does that leave ADI in terms of gas found ?
> I know all situations differ porosity etc etc but make it all sound promising



Sorry guys re read article I'm totally wrong on my last post 5bcf too 7bcf of gas targeted so I should get my research right


----------



## stiger

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Sorry guys re read article I'm totally wrong on my last post 5bcf too 7bcf of gas targeted so I should get my research right



Trying to give me a fright Lucky_Country? seriously though why has the thread gone so quiet? Is it fear ? or just hols.Cheers


----------



## EEE

:







			
				stiger said:
			
		

> Trying to give me a fright Lucky_Country? seriously though why has the thread gone so quiet? Is it fear ? or just hols.Cheers




Hi stiger,

I think that its just a case of not having much to talk about. ADI looks like it has been constructing a pennant formation after the highs of November with some exciting gains followed by counter trends which aren't terribly exciting unless you want to top up on your holdings. 

With prelim results for New Taition due later in the month and production testing results for SL early Feb, I'd think this thread will start buzzing again once some announcements are made.

But until then all we can do is keep the faith


----------



## cicak_kupang

I agree with you both Stiger and eee,the thread has gone quiet, cos of xmas and the new year holiday.  I think people let things go a little as you spend more time catching up with friends and familly.  
I have re read the entire thread from start and copy and pasted all the hi lights and positive and negative points, and facts etc....  Its a nice quick referal base to go back and look at.
The sp may flounder a bit in the first half of this month but i'm sure have more interest  in the secong half, as N.T comes to a close and we get to know more about SL.  
Dont be dis heartened about the quietness of the thread, nothing has changed, this is an AWESOME STOCK!   Patience and you will be rewarded


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well with no news I think the sp has stood quite strong and is near the top of its trading 
Looking forward too SL results for the main target followed by secondaries although would like an update on whats happening with the rig
New Taiton the are very confident of lmost a cetainty too be commercial so all in all should be a good 1st half


----------



## barney

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Well with no news I think the sp has stood quite strong and is near the top of its trading
> Looking forward too SL results for the main target followed by secondaries although would like an update on whats happening with the rig
> New Taiton the are very confident of lmost a cetainty too be commercial so all in all should be a good 1st half




I agree. The SP has done well to hold its ground. I think this shows that the majority of holders are now on board for the longer haul (assuming reasonable news). I was expecting a quicker pullback to around 75 cents (I'd like to top up   ). Might still get that as the last of the impatient sellers drop off over the next week or so, but I'm doubtful.

I've got an interesting story on sugarloaf cabbages, but I'm not telling it till the SP hits $2 ............. I hope I get to tell the story soon!!!   Good Luck all, Barney.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Have been seeing red all day apart from ADI.
Looking good with no apparent news


----------



## EEE

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Have been seeing red all day apart from ADI.
> Looking good with no apparent news




How ya going Lucky_Country

I've been watching market depth for the past couple of weeks and a lot of buyers have been building up with some signicant sized orders. Luckily for us there haven't been a hell of a lot of sellers (wonder why   )

I think that today might just have been buyers taking the plunge and not nescessarily a sign of any imminent announcement.

Anyway, that just my   , I've been wrong many times before.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well announcements are iminnent with SL and NT just an earlier rise than expected.
Confidence in ADI has slowly built up and everyone thinking SL will be commercial has got very few wanting too sell and only 90 million too sell at the momment


----------



## maverick11

It's been a while since i posted here simply because for me it's a matter of waiting now.  Things are still on track, apart from the delays at New Taiton.  The SP has held up better than I expected and it is nice to see today ADI is the shining light in a sea of red!!


----------



## Jimmy001

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Well announcements are iminnent




I'm sure announcements are imminent. In fact looking back through past announcements I would say whoever is in charge of making announcements at ADI really enjoys his job.

Don't hold but good luck to those that do.


----------



## tomcat

Jimmy001 said:
			
		

> Don't hold but good luck to those that do.




Why the 'Don't hold' recommendation Jimmy? Can you let us know the reasons behind your position.


----------



## Jimmy001

My bad, I meant "I don't hold"...

Although I will add that most of its other breakouts were accompanied by a lot more vol than recently seen.. They have made a lot of anns in the past to the point where its like they're ramping themselves (e.g. like 5 in a day), which maybe has tired out the speculators a bit? I'm just trying to play devils advocate here I don't have an opinion either way! Thoughts for either side are always appreciated


----------



## tomcat

Not much volume at all today, I think EEE may have been on the money...buyers taking the plunge and not a lot of sellers out there. 

Everyone is just waiting now, suprised they haven't announced the details of the workover rig...I'm hoping they are trying to get the best crew and rig they can.


----------



## Lucky_Country

ARQ increases stake in ADI things are looking good.
Results not far away ARQ buying more shares SP holding strong not many sellers 
On a winner I think
AgentM where you hiding


----------



## tomcat

The new taiton well has been averaging around 2393ft per week for the last couple of weeks. Based on this they should be getting to the Wilcox fault line in around 2 1/2 to 3 weeks. They will be testing between 14000ft and 17000ft so we should have some news by the end of the month...hopefully positive    

Still havent heard any more about when they are likely to begin flow testing SL...anyone else heard anything?


----------



## fflintoff

Tom,
Posted on the EME thread yesterday.

"I have an E Mail from one of the partners on Sugarloaf. At this stage they expect testing to happen towards the end of Jan so rig availability doesn ´t appear to be an issue as expected.

-No technical issues on EV #1 Margarita as per SUR ´s RNS. If their 6200ft 10 day drilling programme is accurate then about another 5 days to go plus say 2 days thereafter for logging etc."


----------



## Lucky_Country

Any thoughts on a merger between ADI and ARQ 
If ADI get up too $5 per share they can offer ARQ shareholders a 4 for 1 deal the way arq shares are tumbling.
This would cut the ammount of shares on offer create a bigger more efficient company sharing the same skills and have a greatt deal of exploration programed already.


----------



## Tomahawk

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on a merger between ADI and ARQ
> If ADI get up too $5 per share they can offer ARQ shareholders a 4 for 1 deal the way arq shares are tumbling.
> This would cut the ammount of shares on offer create a bigger more efficient company sharing the same skills and have a greatt deal of exploration programed already.




I could be wrong but wasn't ADI spun out of ARQ? It would seem strange to remerge them.


----------



## Agentm

if arq was to go for adi then it would have been done ages ago.. all the directors know what sugarloaf is, and once flow testing commences then we are off on another run, then the announcements of the results which will see the share price spike like never before.

NT has had a few problems, and now the rig is on the go its all ahead full steam, its highly unlikely the well will be dry, and it will give the sp a nice boost before the sugarloaf spike.

some predicted .60 in january for adi, it didnt go there as most wont sell at that level, and now the price is jumping at very low levels of trade.

keep in mind there are 3 major projects still to be announced by adi, all have considerable upside, one in particular close by to australia is of very big interest to me and may make me stay in way longer than planned.

i think the next 60  days will be without doubt the most significant days in the trading history of adi.  cant see any downside in the short term at all, and the announcements of flow testing will stagger the market as these guys have been playing their cards very close. i have been accumulating over the last 30 days and i thought i never would. too much to offer on the upside to resist.

news has been quiet over the past weeks, and now as the news of the workover rig nears the speculators will start their run..

good times for both the short term and long termers..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Its been quite boring here without you AgentM no-one knows ADI like you


----------



## wallave

Good to see you back Agent M...I don't post often but I like to read your comments and am glad that you are still bullish on ADI.


----------



## eckart

While we wait just some info on a nearby gasfield. Only 13 km lies the large Pawnee gas field. The interesting part here is that it produces from the Edwards. Production to date is ~ 187BCF of dry gas. Field size is 310BCF.

So there is still the possibility that Sugarloaf may produce from the Edwards.

Got the info from the site below

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/PXD/presentations/2006PXDAnalystDayFinal.pdf


----------



## fflintoff

EME have stated off the record that they have not ruled out Edwards even though Couch believes that it is too tight to produce.


----------



## tomcat

See the buyers chasing ADI towards the close of the market...notice all the Sugarloaf JV partners are up today


----------



## wallave

great close, anticipation building as we get closer to end of Jan for the start of some results from Sugarloaf


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:
			
		

> keep in mind there are 3 major projects still to be announced by adi, all have considerable upside, one in particular close by to australia is of very big interest to me and may make me stay in way longer than planned.




Hi Agentm,

Are you referring to the AC/P 32 permit area off Western Australia? I believe the JV partners are looking to farmout the next well.


----------



## Dums

Folks
Would you care to guess what level of earnings EME may get off SugarLoaf (noting their 6% farm-in) should the well deliver against expectations.
I'm considering increasing my holdings in EME given that the price has dropped by 50% since November (to 40p share).
I'm worried about the driver behind EME's recent farm-in to Project Margarita ... on the one hand, you could think that this expense was born from confidence in eventual returns from Sugarloaf ... on the other hand, you may think that this was a short term gamble to try to get some production and positive sentiment/announcements from a lower risk well, prior to potentially bad or 'indifferent' news from Sugarloaf ... it's a hard one to call and I may be being overly cynical !!!
For example - Look at 'Pantheon Resources' deep well (Plum Deep) ... just before they announced that it was wet and tight, they made an upbeat announement about their smaller wells (Mohawk and Caddo) - are EME doing the same???
What do you think EME's 6% share could be worth, and, are EME entitled to participate in any other drills in the same block (if for example they decided to drill a load of wells in the Austin Chalks etc)
Appreciate your thoughts ... just to add a bit of colour to my deliberations

Best Regards
Dums
PS - Although it grieves me to admit it .... you deserved to win the Ashes !!!!


----------



## Agentm

i think all the JV partners have rights to all zones, there are areas in the lease that are not totally covered by the JVP's, but the majority of the lease is covered for SL deep, and the edwards / sligo region. Austin is a different game, requiring negotiations fro leaseholders to convert, this still goes on as we speak. Little will be revealed about the true value of austin until flow testing is done, and if the flow testing of the hosston sands is as anticipated, then we will see a complete change in process, the well will become a production well and the chalks will be hit hard with wells without any flow testing, there is enough known about the chalks for the JVP's to have extreme confidence on the chalks being run as a seperate field as already hinted in the annual report by two of the JVP's.  

I think you will find the pace of the sp is being determined by an entry of a whole lot of new investors, after the roadshow in dec the stockbrokers have begun making their respective clients ware of the share, and after research and evaluation we see since then a steady flow of investing on the share. I aint sellin to these guys, my selling comes later when full value is achieved.

The next few weeks are going to be interesting, the NT rig is now bug free, i hear its not the fault of the operator, but more a case of the rig itself being relatively new and bugs being ironed out,, so no charge to the operator by the rig owner for any downtime or maintenance.. so as a shareholder we dont have to worry about cost blowouts. minor delays in the near term are still possible but all delays and fixes are done for safety and for the overall success of the operation.

2 weeks of delays is nothing in terms of drilling, rarely does a well operation complete without delays, its always important to factor in stoppages. NT is a very low risk and extremely well researched well, its almost certain the well will encounter hydrocarbons in all zones, and i believe this well is the most likely of any well to produce results as, or better than expected.

in terms of SL. in the next few weeks the workover commences, and within a fortnight thereafter we should have the results of the fracing and flow testing. then we see some real action on the upside!!

trading on adi is still quite solid, with not many prepared to sell lower anymore as we near the business end of the explorer stage and the transition into a producer...



as for edwards, remember this well was drilled in a place to adequately test all zones of interest, it could very well be that on other parts of the lease the edwards is entirely different, and may well be commercial with fracing.. (pure speculation) ...  we have see comments previously to not rule out edwards.


interesting days for adi. still cant see any downside..


----------



## fflintoff

AgentM,
Cracking post as always. Sligo could also add a tincture of excitement as contrary to the pre-drill plan it was cased off in toto at no little expense. Something interesting there also methinks.
Ultimately this is a wildcat appraisal well only with develpment & production to follow. Whilst one well does not a summer make it could be a corker in its own right. They could be there draining the land for many years to come.


----------



## maverick11

I'm still confident that Sligo will add commercial benefit to SL.  During drilling there were several methane-only gas shows in this secodary target.  As for Edwards, I don't think that looks as promising


----------



## Agentm

NT drill is slowish, 289 feet per day.. wouldnt take much to go 500 feet per day on a 12' bit..  and that would mean in about 7 to 10 days striking close to a primary in the 14'000 feet zone..  wishful thinking but possible..

in my view the sp is a bit under half way to the full value of the secondary austin chalks. and the value of the primary is yet to be factored in.. i agree with flintoff on the gas being a long term project, but once the huge operation starts into full swing to drill away with multiple wells on both the primary and secondary, then you get the idea of how massive this world class project really is. 

I keep reflecting back on the one real interesting fact, that regardless of the success of the primary ( and i fully believe now that the well is totally commercial on the hosston sands ) regardless of the primary, we have still the undeniable fact that the secondary is considered commercial in any case, so its really a case of double success, and with the small hitch that once the primary is tested, they are not going to flow test the secondary, just put the primary into production.

So its a wierd place to be as an explorer to not be able to test a secondary zone, have a commercial primary and a well that is 100% bonifide commercial in both zones yet the market is still speculating on the possibilty of success!!

only a matter of weeks b4 we get the detail we need.. looks like NT successes will possibly be announced before the workover starts up, next weeks announcements will be interesting to the sp..
all in MHO and DYOR...


----------



## Dukey

Oh man I love this share!!!  

Have been a way for a few weeks - with little opportunity to stop and check out what was happening. Just got home and hada gander and what do you know - we've bashed through $1.00. Has come back since - but a milestone nontheless. Was A little slow over the x-mas break, but now we're away again. yeeehaahhh

And so much good info still being shared here!!  Great job to all, and happy new year...May you all be reaping the rewards of ADI info-sharing for the 11.5 of 2007 months still to come... amd way beyond!!

Regarding Agent M's comments about the market seeming to ignore the success of ADI's holes - I wonder how much of that is people just not looking deep enough. I mean, a quick glance at the chart would probably scare many who might be inclined to think _'the horse has already bolted - I'll look elsewhere' _- without looking at the fundamentals to realise as we do here - that this horse is just prancing around in the open gate, waiting for the starters gun!!  
Well thats my feeling anyway ... I expect I'll be in ADI to some extent for a long time to come. 

- (ex-AWOL) - Dukey


----------



## maverick11

NT partners Antares (AZZ) today announced one of their wells a "discovery" and they haven't even logged or hit the primary target yet... SP up 25%.


----------



## nioka

Dukey said:
			
		

> Oh man I love this share!!!
> 
> Regarding Agent M's comments about the market seeming to ignore the success of ADI's holes - I wonder how much of that is people just not looking deep enough. I mean, a quick glance at the chart would probably scare many who might be inclined to think _'the horse has already bolted - I'll look elsewhere' _- without looking at the fundamentals to realise as we do here - that this horse is just prancing around in the open gate, waiting for the starters gun!!
> Well thats my feeling anyway ... I expect I'll be in ADI to some extent for a long time to come.
> 
> - (ex-AWOL) - Dukey



If they are ignoring ADI look at how the AUT shares are being treated in that way. I am now selling half my ADI shares and buying AUT, almost a 2 for 1 exchange.


----------



## Dukey

Mav. - How many wells are AZZ into at the mo. Can we deduce which well they are talking about?

I'll look into AUT too nioka .


----------



## TheAbyss

EKA Have 12.5% of Sugarloaf also. Not sure what other dynamics are at play on AUT and EKA as they have both retreated slightly.

Perhaps the ADI impetus is nothing to do with Sugarloaf? Hard to see how everyone is missing the JV partners and hitting ADI only.


----------



## INORE

Dukey said:
			
		

> Mav. - How many wells are AZZ into at the mo. Can we deduce which well they are talking about?
> 
> I'll look into AUT too nioka .




AZZ currently drilling 4 wells, 
67.5% Oyster Creek - Harrison 1
25% Oyster Creek - Scott-2
25% New Taiton - Lise-1
23.5% Little Bear - Garcita Ranch

Had ann today re Garcita ranch well and the secondary target.  Primary target still another 1500 ft. deeper.

AZZ up 15c / 25.21% on 3.6 million trades.

$28,151,000 still in the bank and several wells in production.


----------



## Agentm

azz looks like having some good days..


adi has had little trade today, with a few minor trades up and down the scale.

looking good for a breakout next two weeks. 

hey inore, can you give an idea of the drilling rate that NT will be at currently?


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM

EKA are certainly getting hammered down because of the turkey drill on hold as for sugarloaf with 12.5% EKA  should rocket on SL being commercial
-with anaylts value SL $4-$5ps to ADI 20% -95c
-SL to EKA 12.5% must surely be worth $2.50-$3 -37.5c  

-because of this I've recently sold down my ADI holding to buy up cheap EKA's hope it pays off


----------



## Jus

JBMMMMMMMMMM said:
			
		

> EKA are certainly getting hammered down because of the turkey drill on hold as for sugarloaf with 12.5% EKA  should rocket on SL being commercial
> -with anaylts value SL $4-$5ps to ADI 20% -95c
> -SL to EKA 12.5% must surely be worth $2.50-$3 -37.5c
> 
> -because of this I've recently sold down my ADI holding to buy up cheap EKA's hope it pays off





Hehehehee, I did the same too, sold ADI for 0.90 and have been accumulating EKA ever since. Assuming EKA able to resume (or might have already) their Turkey pressure test ASAP without any delays (trouble free), EKA could be well over 0.70 in short term. And plus its Sugarloaf interests??     $$$$$$$$ 

Read more my posting on EKA. Cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

There is more too ADI than SL it has a wide range of projects all with high impact discoverys


----------



## INORE

Agentm said:
			
		

> hey inore, can you give an idea of the drilling rate that NT will be at currently?




Qik calc, i'm expecting NT full depth early to mid feb....


----------



## Agentm

we must be coming close to the first zone of interest in NT..


i expect the SL workover rig announcement will come in the very near term..

I think EKAO's may be the way to go?

I cant find any more funds nor release any so i am now in a position that has to play out. No matter what the  well is a total success.. the chalks are worth $2+ and the sands are just needing a flow test to allow the announcement  of their find.

As this is a new play, and potentially an new discovery, i believe the hosston sands have yet yielded a play of this type before, i think it will deliver a lot of interest, not only for the incredible size of the play, but any new discovery will start the operators and landowners to suddenly fenzy over the 2ds and 3ds on their leases all over the gulf states..  
its about now that we are in the most exciting phase of the sugarloaf wells history, as the workover commences and news leaks out, i dont think we will see prices like these today ever again...

just patiently waiting for the announcements now!!


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:
			
		

> we must be coming close to the first zone of interest in NT..
> 
> 
> i expect the SL workover rig announcement will come in the very near term..
> 
> I think EKAO's may be the way to go?
> 
> I cant find any more funds nor release any so i am now in a position that has to play out. No matter what the  well is a total success.. the chalks are worth $2+ and the sands are just needing a flow test to allow the announcement  of their find.
> 
> As this is a new play, and potentially an new discovery, i believe the hosston sands have yet yielded a play of this type before, i think it will deliver a lot of interest, not only for the incredible size of the play, but any new discovery will start the operators and landowners to suddenly fenzy over the 2ds and 3ds on their leases all over the gulf states..
> its about now that we are in the most exciting phase of the sugarloaf wells history, as the workover commences and news leaks out, i dont think we will see prices like these today ever again...
> 
> just patiently waiting for the announcements now!!




EKA has been punished over Turkey and is now where it was when ADI was sub 50 c (in fact I switched some EKA into ADI at the time and then rued it later) so maybe it is value.  I wouldn't write off Turkey just yet.

Anyway AgentM what is your timeframe for some Sugarloaf news?  you had a good holiday?


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:
			
		

> we must be coming close to the first zone of interest in NT..




My calcs put them hitting the 14000ft target...Tues - Wed next week, so hopefuly some announcements then as they drill down to TD of 17,000ft... positive announcements preferably


----------



## Dums

Broadside said:
			
		

> EKA has been punished over Turkey and is now where it was when ADI was sub 50 c (in fact I switched some EKA into ADI at the time and then rued it later) so maybe it is value.  I wouldn't write off Turkey just yet.
> 
> Anyway AgentM what is your timeframe for some Sugarloaf news?  you had a good holiday?




Folks,
Grateful if you could jump-start my memory ... expectations were for a workover rig at Sugarloaf by end Jan 07 ... was this backed-up by some kind of formal communication or was it more 'hope' based !!!
Cheers Dums


----------



## nioka

Dums said:
			
		

> Folks,
> Grateful if you could jump-start my memory ... expectations were for a workover rig at Sugarloaf by end Jan 07 ... was this backed-up by some kind of formal communication or was it more 'hope' based !!!
> Cheers Dums



Company announcement 13th Dec. Expect test flow ops to commence late Jan. No forther announcement to my knowledge.


----------



## fflintoff

Dums said:
			
		

> Folks,
> Grateful if you could jump-start my memory ... expectations were for a workover rig at Sugarloaf by end Jan 07 ... was this backed-up by some kind of formal communication or was it more 'hope' based !!!
> Cheers Dums




E mail exchange mid Jan.

“We will advise the market once we have a firm date for commencing the testing program at Sugarloaf, at this stage we still expect this to happen during the latter half of this month, most likely towards the end of January.”

Also this was  posted on the Empyrean thread in UK on Sat:-

“Xonghile Kudu - 20 Jan'07 - 17:27 - 26836 of 26891


r33

I heard this week from a very reliable source that drilling at Eagle will resume in March. Yes 'March' 2007 before the cynics wade in.

Fraccing at Sugarloaf will commence early Feb.

Margarita news due very soon/imminent (but I think we all knew this anyway)

New Glantal drilling late this year after the seismics are evaluated.

The big news here is Eagle to recommence in March. Not meaning to undervalue the others but Eagle is the one many here including myself have been waiting for.

I'm usually rubbish at trading the peaks and troughs but I'm thinking that any bad news from Margarita will surely present a golden buying opportunity in anticipation of Sugar & Eagle. Lets hope Margarita is good though to get us off to a flyer.

Next 4 months is going to be full of news by all accounts. Fingers crossed some/most of it is good.”


----------



## Agentm

workover will commence very very shortly.. 

not a case of being hopeful, more a case of hearing the same thing both sides of the globe!

If the NT rig starts hitting the pay zones in the next 7 days and the workover commences also, i would expect the 3 JVP's to all start a good run. I see eka had some better news today


----------



## Dukey

Todays fall seems a bit harsh - unless there more in between the lines that I`m not picking up??  Any comments peeps?


----------



## chops_a_must

Dukey said:
			
		

> Todays fall seems a bit harsh - unless there more in between the lines that I`m not picking up??  Any comments peeps?



Delays, delays, delays.


----------



## tomcat

The drilling update today indicated they are running wireline logs prior to cementing the 9 5/8" casing. Is this the norm, I thought they typically only ran wireline logs if there were gas flows they wanted to evaluate? They are still a ways off the target zones between 14000 and 17000ft


----------



## davepan

Hi guys,

Things have been very quiet in here over the past few weeks because of the lack of information released to the market.

I am currently considering whether to increase my holdings based on the recent weakness in ADI/EKA/EKAO.

Based on the recent report released by Hartleys does anyone have a view on whether the chance of success of either the primary/secondary has changed?

Or is it still too early to predict and we are all speculating and should wait on the results of the wireline results?

I am no oil/gas expert so and advice would be greatly appreciated.


Considering the recent performance of EKA/EKAO, there is a clear buying opportunity with the potential upside from Sugarloaf.


----------



## Agentm

the austin chalks are a definate, there is no doubt at all in my mind the well is successful. $2+ and multiple (double figure) wells to expand and develop the field.. 

Due to the highest levels of secrecy and the most delicate ways in which the JVP's have announced their finds you can see the market is totally blindsided by the implications of the reporting and the reality of the size of the finds.

You have to understand that texas crude first and formost pulls the strings, the JVP's are merely small fry in the equation. THE WELL SHOULD HAVE BEEN A CLOSED WELL.

It is only due to the laws governing the ASX that the JVP's here in australia are forced to announce, and tactically and very strategically they have managed to announce all significant finds of commercial significance only! All other finds which "could be commercial" or more to the point, "could be remotely distinguished as possibly uncommercial", have deliberately and specifically left out of all reports. So you have to understand the significance of the very subdued and very scant reorting on all the finds so far, they are by and large well worth being held in very very high regard and not to underestimated in any way shape or form!!

So for those not close to the source, or those unfamiliar with this practice, most people are simply unable to evaluate the significance of the sugarloaf prospect.

I know that if matters had have been played the way the texas crude boys wanted, then no information at all would be known today in any form and in any forum. and only after flow testing would there have been a small announcement of a find. no fanfare and no flag waving, and that would be to protect their own interests, the protection of their ability to closely guard information and sign new acerage, and to not prohibit extending and broadening current acerage and leases. What chance does texas crude have of signing any land owners on any prospects on the hosston sands anywhere in texas, as today the information that has been leaked so far would stop dead their being any advantage in getting good deals for the operators looking at the sands! 

I wount be selling any shares in ADI, today tomorrow nor next week.. I am 100% certain of the success of the secondaries in the well. I not only believe the secondary have mmet the highest expectations that were estimated, I believe the rumours and figures distributed last year are accurate and have been unable to find any reason to doubt their integrity. 

My conviction on the primary is that the information has been kept so tight and secretive since the end of drilling that i am in no way  doubting the primary is exactly as expected, and the figures are at a minimum the P50 estimates for the primary. I totally believe the flow testing after fracing will yield flows far in excess of the minimum rquirement of commercial viabilty for the primary. Its deep, its very very hot and the expertise of the guys that are about to do the flow test will get texas crude the results they have been almost certain was always there! 

I think the SL well is difficult for the average investor to understand, and many dont have the patience to wait a few weeks and get the real figures, i see many short term traders are opting out and selling down the stock, which is fine by me as they must have made some gains, but the real gains of 500% are about to arrive in the near term. 

good luck to anyone who is on the stock and good luck to those who are bailing on the short high.. everyone has different agenda in investing, for me as a longtermer i see only great days ahead.

all in MHO and DYOR


----------



## Dums

Agent M
You certainly have courage in your conviction !!!!
Have you a deeper level of access to information, or a professional insight.
I certainly hope you are correct as I have 'skin in the game' so to speak.
What to you would be (i) a satisfactory result, and (ii) a great result... in terms of mmcfgpd and bopd for the initial well.
As what about reservoir size and future completion?
Noting that the folk are talking about fracing, and there is an inherent risk of contamination/poor completion and/or tightness, what level of risk do you associate with this throughout the depths of the well ... are they only fracing the primary?
Do ADI have common terms for all depths of the well? I understand EME's terms may be 'slightly' different for various depths/and or primary/secondary .. can you throw any light on this ... it concerns me somewhat ...
Sorry about the 'more questions than answers' .. I guess it's a sign of where we all are !!!
Good luck folks - I'm off to bed ... spent too long doing research tonight .. missus doesn't love me .. only a cold ars e to look forward to !!!
Cheers Dums


----------



## Broadside

ADI has rights to all depths over the entire SL prospect, some of the other partners have different terms...Eureka has rights to all depths on this well but only shallow rights elsewhere on about 1/3 of the prospect...at least this is my understanding.


----------



## sam76

Dums said:
			
		

> Good luck folks - I'm off to bed ... spent too long doing research tonight .. missus doesn't love me .. only a cold ars e to look forward to !!!
> Cheers Dums




LOL


----------



## wallave

Agentm,
Great post, This thread missed you over Christmas. 

"I totally believe the flow testing after fracing will yield flows far in excess of the minimum rquirement of commercial viabilty for the primary"

What is the timeframe that you expect the flow testing results would be released which will in turn put a rocket under the shareprice.
I've been holding both ADI and EKAO since October and plan to see this through. 
Your knowledge and confidence in this stock is very comforting to a fellow holder.
Appreciate your comments.
Cheers


----------



## nioka

nioka said:
			
		

> If they are ignoring ADI look at how the AUT shares are being treated in that way. I am now selling half my ADI shares and buying AUT, almost a 2 for 1 exchange.



Last week 1 ADI share bought 1.8 AUT shares. Today it gets only 1.5. Glad I got in last week. It may be time to change back again.   The way the relationship keeps changing it offers a way to increase the number of ADI held without the risk of being caught out with an announcement re sugarloaf when you are not holding. I have done this 3 times now with good results.


----------



## Caliente

hi nioka, looks like you're well versed in the nature of the SL well. thought I'd ask u a quick q.

 which of the following three do you feel offers the best value exposure to Sugarloaf?

1. ADI
2. AUT
3. EKA

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## conman

1. ADI----good choice as there are other projects which have good 'insurance potential'

2. EKA----Best to be in if SL is a cows guts (full of methane) with good porousity as the potential upside is the greatest only problem is that this is also the riskiest -> no insurance wells (except for turkey but this looks to be dead and buried)

3. AUT--- Not to much upside potential unless we have hit 3Trillion which (I think due to my readings of the reports) is not the case.


So its up to u but I think that at EKA's current (cheap) prices if u want a punt (with big rewards) go here. But if u want to be a little more conservative go ADI... or of coarse you could hedge ur bets and go halves in the two!!!

Good luck. (get in soon as the annon. will be before the end of the month i suspect)

Conman


----------



## Caliente

Thanks conman! While we're talking petroleum, what do you think about Baraka's Heron-1 well? So far its been completely dry all the way to 3550m!

However, the company says the aptian stage where they expect the oil is 3600m-3800m. My petroleum geology is essentially non-existent.

Is it good or bad that its been dry in the drill-up to this stage?

I hear things about seal rock etc etc


----------



## nioka

Caliente said:
			
		

> hi nioka, looks like you're well versed in the nature of the SL well. thought I'd ask u a quick q.
> 
> which of the following three do you feel offers the best value exposure to Sugarloaf?
> 
> 1. ADI
> 2. AUT
> 3. EKA
> 
> Cheers
> -Cali



ADI without a doubt. If sugarloaf is great then they all have value but ADI will have the best value. ADI has the management and the potential to overcome a sugarloaf fizzer (heaven forbid).I have traded back to ADI although only partly.


----------



## nioka

conman said:
			
		

> 1. ADI----good choice as there are other projects which have good 'insurance potential'
> 
> 
> 3. AUT--- Not to much upside potential unless we have hit 3Trillion which (I think due to my readings of the reports) is not the case.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Conman



AUT does have some other "eggs" in the incubator and I hold AUT because of them. AUT is undervalued in my opinion. Actually I hold more AUT than ADI.


----------



## Agentm

the jump from adi to eka looks good so far Nioka. i expect adi to maintain a lead over aut, and i cant see any logic in eka going over aut's sp. keep the sp in close view, remember the cashflow is needed to develop these finds.. some have considerably more than others thus far.. ARQ has also expended their options so a another multi million dollar cash injection has also happened very quietly!

Nokia watch out for NT, they may announce things, they stopped and did a wireline without announcing any shows, and once they commence drilling they will be closer to the zones, i hope your timing is good.

ADI is definately the best pick of the 3 in my view.. they have short term upside in NT and in answer to wallave, the flow testing will take no more than 2 weeks i have heard, and from what i have heard i expect news on that very very shortly.

ADI has a habit of placing news in their quarterlies also, so expect some nice things in there also..

ADI has some great longer term prospects, yemen has a lot more to offer than appearances may portray, and i am very excited on the other prosects in the pipeline, indonesia and north africa.. there isnt much that can be said about the 3d stuff in the gulf of mexico other than the obvious.. there is plenty of oil and gas there!!

I am super confident on the secondaries in SL, i believe both the magnitude and importance of the find is beyond what anyone can  understand. The reasons for my continuing to purchase the share in the past month or more is soley on the reasoning that the return on the secondaries carry more than $2 to the sp. i see little downside. I have heard a rumour real early on in the piece that one director of one of the JVP's was so happy with the secondaries they were happy to stop drilling and go ahead on the chalks right there and then..!! i didnt hear it direct but remember reading about it on a UK forum from one of the more reliable posters there! 

The primary needs fracing, just about all wells in the US are fraced, so the technolgy, expertise and understanding of exactly what to do is, in my view, in the hands of experts. I dont believe that texas crude would allow any ordinary fracing program to be done here, this is a new field and the experienced specialised crews and equipment needed here will be well sourced.  I cant, and nor can anyone predict the flow rates from an unfraced well, but but the primary has been considerably downgraded in estimates by the JVP's to cap off the possibility of massive fluctuations in the sp on speculation during the drill. 1.5 TCF is not unreasonable on the well, and from my understanding of it, the 1.5 tcf figure is the smallest the reserve can be for commercial flow, the JVP's downsized the reserves by 50% (to 800bcf) to keep the sp real and be very very conservative. my gut feeling is 1.5 tcf is what they are gunning for minimum.. thats entirely speculative and all IMHO..

if i had to punt on the well and guess, my money is in the area of multiple 100's bcf on the secondary..   and 1.5 tcf on the sands..

You must understand the primary is wildcat, the secondaries were known plays and all contained shows and finds.. real good shows and finds.  As a wildcat, you can get away with a bit, you cant go proclaiming a discovery (like GDN) and then hope when the flow tests come in that your right. These guys dont play that game, ADI wouldnt allow it no matter what the others would want!!  So it remains a wildcat well and no announcement of a discovery until after the flow testing. The numbers they had to decide to invest in flow testing had to be good, real good. There is absolutely no guessing here, If certian factors were in the equation to disallow a successful fracing and flow testing program, then it was to be called off. Permiability, porosity and all the perameters for a decision to flow test had to be met. This well was very very expensive, but there is no wild guessing and flagrant disregard foe shareholders money here, if the sl primary was dead then they were not going to flog a dead horse, they saw the numbers from the wirelines and they must have been impressed!!


i hold as always..  good luck to all.. and remember all IMHO and DYOR on this share, its getting close to crunch time, and in the US they dont have australia day holidays!! things can happen and if you ask around you may find out that a lot of JVP guys are in the USA, if you catch my drift!!


----------



## Caliente

Hi, thanks for the guidance. I've just acquired a holding in ADI prior to the long weekend.

Lets see how it pans out.

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## Dums

Agent M
Many thanks as ever for your thoughts - much appreciated.
Folks,
I had planned to increase my stake in EME today, 'unfortunately' the price spiked .. don't know why .. (but I couldn't resist buying even at the higher price) .. could be people expecting Margarita news (as results from 1st shallow well is overdue), or news re: Sugarloaf preparing for testing, could just be the market makers having some sport!
Anyhow, with 1 hour left to go to the end of trading, EME stand at 47p sell, 50p buy .. with a days gain of 12.14%. Most of the volumes being Private Investor size .. don't think the institutions are wading in just yet. 2 million shares traded so that's about a 6% turn-over ... certainly something cooking!
Let me know who things go down-under, if the driver for our rise is Sugarloaf, you may see so good gains yourself
Good luck folks


----------



## fflintoff

Folks,
I had planned to increase my stake in EME today, 'unfortunately' the price spiked .. don't know why .. (but I couldn't resist buying even at the higher price) .. could be people expecting Margarita news (as results from 1st shallow well is overdue), or news re: Sugarloaf preparing for testing, could just be the market makers having some sport!
Anyhow, with 1 hour left to go to the end of trading, EME stand at 47p sell, 50p buy .. with a days gain of 12.14%. Most of the volumes being Private Investor size .. don't think the institutions are wading in just yet. 2 million shares traded so that's about a 6% turn-over ... certainly something cooking!
Let me know who things go down-under, if the driver for our rise is Sugarloaf, you may see so good gains yourself
Good luck folks
----------------------

Is her ar se still cool?


----------



## blues

If you have a look at EKA's Quarterly Report released yesterday it says that "The well participants have approved the operator's proposed test program which is anticipated to start within two weeks."

The fun is about to begin.

Cheers.


----------



## Dums

Is her ar se still cool?[/QUOTE]

Oh no ... running hot ... that's why I married the gal !!!
Dums


----------



## Agentm

time to see how many will sell the stock down on monday..


my feeling is that now the program is fully approved by texas crude and the JVP's, the well is only a matter of weeks away from being announced as a new discovery..

i cant imagine the SP will be hammered down now, EKA's  quarterly is interesting but slightly inaccurate.. i cant see them risking the primary if flows are coming in commercial as expected in the primary. I dont believe they will flow test any other zones and risk the very expensive well..

we are now in the most exciting phase of the JVP's history!!

things are happening in texas on many fronts, and in many ways..

good luck all..


----------



## fflintoff

AgentM,
The EKA report refers to testing the primary only which is correct. The context of the shallower zones in the report is within the primary only. The JV have no plans to test the Austin at the moment, if at all.
P.S. I note that EME in England got their placing away today. Deeply discounted but EME is now fully funded for the Sugarloaf campaign.


----------



## Dums

fflintoff said:
			
		

> AgentM,
> The EKA report refers to testing the primary only which is correct. The context of the shallower zones in the report is within the primary only. The JV have no plans to test the Austin at the moment, if at all.
> P.S. I note that EME in England got their placing away today. Deeply discounted but EME is now fully funded for the Sugarloaf campaign.




Folks
EME ended trading down just under 10% with about 6.3m shares traded - thats a little over 10% of those issued. Another 15M shares were placed at 35p so fully funded for 2007 ($5m). I hope Sugar Loaf comes good ... all my eggs are in this basket now !!
The placing wasn't well recieved by many of the private investors, but it's my sense that this will be a distant memory when testing starts at Sugarloaf - I'm hoping that we'll be at/around 70/80p by then
Have a great weekend
Cheers Dums


----------



## Dums

Agentm said:
			
		

> i cant see them risking the primary if flows are coming in commercial as expected in the primary. I dont believe they will flow test any other zones and risk the very expensive well..
> 
> 
> 
> things are happening in texas on many fronts, and in many ways..
> 
> good luck all..




Agent M
What do you mean by this .. are you saying that if the primary is full of free-flowing gas they'll taken that to the market and chase the gas/oil (potentially) at the shallower levels via other wells? ... Is this is so, Would EME automatically be allowed to farm-in as they were part of the original partnership.

Also - care to amplify your comment re: events in Texas re: Sugarloaf? I'm heavily into EME now and would welcome news from down-under, or up-over !!
Cheers Dums


----------



## Caliente

Hi AgentM, as you know I'm a holder of ADI at present, waiting rather excitedly for the ann. of Sugarloaf. 

I've read through all the announcements, and am wondering asides from the fact we have positive oil/gas shows, how a statement like this could be made.



> I wount be selling any shares in ADI, today tomorrow nor next week.. I am 100% certain of the success of the secondaries in the well. I not only believe the secondary have mmet the highest expectations that were estimated, I believe the rumours and figures distributed last year are accurate and have been unable to find any reason to doubt their integrity.




100% certainty that we will have a successful secondary with pressures suitable for commercial extraction??? Thats a bold claim. What am I missing here mate? 

Not arguing, just trying to see if there's something else to the story that I'm missing.

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## Agentm

Hey caliente, you should always invest in things that you have the confidence and understanding of, dont listen to others!!  i always look at info and then check it out to discount it.. i am very bullish on the secondaries in SL, i always have been since couchy.. i followed couch oil closely for many months, then i noticed other forums started to notice him,, now its public knowlege they are a private investor, but he was able to enlighten us on many details..

I look at how adi actually view the secondaries, and i notice they have forward planned wells last year before they reached TD on the primary.. so for me i was 100% certain they had a very promising commercial find on the secondaries.

I invested for secondary success in either SL or NT, that was all i really expected, the secrecy and planning in the primary makes me extremely confident on the primary..

I looked at AUT's quarterly and see even though it was by the same directors of EKA, or in reality it was AUT first then thy bought into EKA as a way to get directors more share holding in the SL deal. instead of getting better value for the AUT shareholders.  anyway i notice the EKA and AUT reports directly contradict eachother. EKA claiming the secondaries will be flow tested, and AUT saying only the primary will be flow tested!!

I dont hold much value to their quarterlies,  i notice that AUT is trying to pass off the EKA company details in the appendix 5B section of their report. I dont think any executive chairman worth a pinch of salt would dare try that one on the ASX.. its only a matter of time before the asx should notice and give them a hefty penalty for trying to not disclose to their shareholders properly. 
its inexcusable and completely unprofessional. makes a mockery of due dilligence and professional conduct and makes them the laughing stock of the day.. good luck to them if they get away with it,, but for me it makes me nervous to see JVP's behaving that way.

I look forward to ADI's quarterly on the news on SL.


----------



## nioka

Game on. Testing commencing shortly


----------



## stereo21

...and testing to take up to two months.  Is this normal for a testing program?  and also, would one expect results to be announced within this two month period or would they announce once all the testing has been completed?


----------



## nioka

stereo21 said:
			
		

> ...and testing to take up to two months.  Is this normal for a testing program?  and also, would one expect results to be announced within this two month period or would they announce once all the testing has been completed?



ASX rules require the company to announce any significant development. I would assume that a significant gas flow would be immediately announced. The company is sensitive to this. The start of trading today for ADI and AUT was delayed this morning for 12mins. All the announcement was the commencement of testing in two weeks. Watch for trading halts as these will probably preceed the next announcement. I suggest the sooner the news the better the news and after the big trading halt it will be too late to get in or out. The time for a decision is now. ( I,m in)
Comments please Agentm


----------



## Agentm

i see that ADi carefully announce the program in specific and very deliberate ways.

high density perforation of the production casing over selected intervals is the technique 

check this link for some great pictures of what it actually looks like in the hole!!

http://www.ptac.org/gas/dl/gasf0601p04.pdf

basically they are saying, they are doing the primary first.. and subject to the result, then they can continue..

they exude an uncanny amount of confidence in the primary dont they!! there is no question they will test the secondary if they have no result in the primary, but they cant announce anything to do with further wells or which way they can go until they get the results from the primary..

doesnt matter, either way the well is a success.. but what a problem to have hey? you cant flow test both zones if the primary is a go!! i love this share!!

still find it difficult to see any downside on the announcement..

i notice all the JVP's have announced new ventures and or have gone to the market for capital, yet adi doesnt, which says to me the straight forward pragmatic and dedicated approach to both SL and NT remains. they are going to see them through before running off on any ole deal that comes by.. i believe the quality on the new ventures which are yet to be announced will be quite something else compared to the average junior,, as they have the backing of ARQ to back them up and get them to places others cant go!

great news all round in any case!




its definately game on now​


----------



## Agentm

AUT now fixes quarterly!  nice!!   now it looks better...........

only a few weeks and we have our first production well!!  looking forward to that!


----------



## Caliente

two weeks. Thanks for the presentation link AgentM. Cool pictures.

Knowing only the basics of petroleum geology/process from what I can gather, they fire charges into the cement casing in order to perforate into the well and commence flow testing. 

From the images, high density perforation looks like more holes in the casing.

My question is why would companies use low density perforation in the first place, asides from a cost issue?


----------



## maverick11

I've made a post on this a while back.  I'm far from an expert, but my understanding is it all depends on geology of the rock they are fracing.  If it was a really permeable rock, then low density may do the trick, because it would just crack the target.  At the depths of the hosston, high density fracing would hopefully aim to bust the rock with millions of tiny fractures spaning hundreds of metres.  They do this by firing explosive charges in the target zones in order to breach the casing.  They then pump extremely high pressure fluids into the well, but do this in an on-off-on-off… manner so that the pressure is not constant but rather huge, then none, then huge, then none, etc.  When the pressure is turned on and off like this it fracs the rock more effectively due to constant change in stress.  While pumping high pressure fluids into the well they also add sands which help fill these cracks and hold them “open” while still enabling flow once the fracing is complete.  As you could appreciate this is no overnight job.  I have seen coal seams that have been pressure frac’d to help release methane and when you go down to mine the coal afterwards, it falls apart like talc, so the process can be very effective.  Hope this helps… & makes sense.


----------



## Agentm

then they flow test then we count the cash!!

btw maverick. that was an extremely good run down on what it does...


----------



## wallave

AgentM,

You have mentioned your gut feel for the size to be 1.5tcf.  

The jvp's have estimated 800bcf.  In Hartleys summary of the stock back on 8th dec on the primaries with an estimated 800bcf and commercially productive values the company at $4.50.

Therefore if your estimate of 1.5tcf proves to be correct (hopefully), would that value the share price at close to $9.00.  

If this is correct then some very happy days are coming our way.

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

if i read it correctly, in the eka prospectus that the independent analysis in the prospectus basically said 1.5 tcf was more likely the senario, and that other JVP's had scaled down the reserves to a ultra conservative 800bcf.. if i read it correct i dont think 800bcf with fracing and minimal baseline flowrates could be commercially viable. i think they expected the reserves and estimates to be considerably larger that the jvp's

the quarterly is remarkably late for adi, this time is goes out later than arq and for the first time in ages on the last day of the month.. i assume the news will contain more nice enticing snippets of info, maybe some news of the projects hinted at and suggested in the last report. would be nice to see a continuation on the SL secondaries theme as per their last report.


----------



## fflintoff

maverick11 said:
			
		

> I've made a post on this a while back.  I'm far from an expert, but my understanding is it all depends on geology of the rock they are fracing.  If it was a really permeable rock, then low density may do the trick, because it would just crack the target.  At the depths of the hosston, high density fracing would hopefully aim to bust the rock with millions of tiny fractures spaning hundreds of metres.  They do this by firing explosive charges in the target zones in order to breach the casing.  They then pump extremely high pressure fluids into the well, but do this in an on-off-on-off… manner so that the pressure is not constant but rather huge, then none, then huge, then none, etc.  When the pressure is turned on and off like this it fracs the rock more effectively due to constant change in stress.  While pumping high pressure fluids into the well they also add sands which help fill these cracks and hold them “open” while still enabling flow once the fracing is complete.  As you could appreciate this is no overnight job.  I have seen coal seams that have been pressure frac’d to help release methane and when you go down to mine the coal afterwards, it falls apart like talc, so the process can be very effective.  Hope this helps… & makes sense.




Maverick,
Thanks for excellent explanation which complements the info provided by AgentM in the link. The extended flow test could last up to 180days?
If the well flows it will be kept in production from the Hosston. The other layers notably Austin would then have to be tested from different appraisal well(s).


----------



## nioka

fflintoff said:
			
		

> Maverick,
> If the well flows it will be kept in production from the Hosston. The other layers notably Austin would then have to be tested from different appraisal well(s).



I seem to recollect that an earlier report from ADI mentioned a budget for 2 more wells at Sugarloaf. This was before the well had reached total depth but after the initial gas discovery. Can't find it now but i"m sure it was there somewhere. At the time and on the strength of it I bought some more shares.


----------



## fflintoff

nioka said:
			
		

> I seem to recollect that an earlier report from ADI mentioned a budget for 2 more wells at Sugarloaf. This was before the well had reached total depth but after the initial gas discovery. Can't find it now but i"m sure it was there somewhere. At the time and on the strength of it I bought some more shares.




nioka,
USA Sugarloaf Leases
 Sugarloaf-1 currently drilling
 2 possible  “shallow” wells 2007

Page 5 of the annual report


http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/annual/Adelphi 2006 Annual Report.pdf


----------



## nioka

fflintoff said:
			
		

> nioka,
> USA Sugarloaf Leases
> Sugarloaf-1 currently drilling
> 2 possible  “shallow” wells 2007
> 
> Page 5 of the annual report
> 
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/annual/Adelphi 2006 Annual Report.pdf



Thanks 
. Knew it was somewhere. Things are looking good.


----------



## Agentm

today we get the news,, 

i maintain the secondaries are always going to be developed regardless of flowtesting with the current well. regardless of the result in the primary i am certain the secondaries are commercial. The well is in no way a dry well as some maintained earlier in the piece, i think the commitment to the primary speaks for itself, and with NT about to arrive at the zones of interest the days ahead are going to be breathtaking..

i remain steadfast on this stock, and i assume the ongoing forward plan on the secondaries will be maintained in todays quarterly.

perhaps news of a few other ventures to entice?


----------



## kevro

Hi, I have a question from todays NT ann. Is there any significance to the converting to an oil based mud system prior to drilling ahead?? Why would they do that??

Regards
Kevro


----------



## Agentm

mav is never around when you need him..

its done when they expect high pressure gas kicks,, so i would say the massive amount of info on the wilcox plays in the region must conclude that the plays are likely to be extremely high pressure, so they utilise the best practices to prevent blowouts and expensive delays.

Its taking painstaking and long lengths of time to do things on this well, i hear the equipment is reletavely new and needs to be looked at closely and tested adequately before ventuing into dangerous high pressure gas plays,, so good due dilligence is being taken on this well.. the good news is that the delays cost nothing, and they only pay for actual drilling time, and they are about to venture on into the gas zones shortly.

mav would know a little more


----------



## kevro

Thanks Agent M, if thats the case I hope they arn't waisting there time and find lots and lots of high pressure gas.


----------



## maverick11

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi, I have a question from todays NT ann. Is there any significance to the converting to an oil based mud system prior to drilling ahead?? Why would they do that??
> 
> Regards
> Kevro




Drilling mud accounts for approx 10+% of a total wells cost, and they employ an engineer (mud engineer) to keep tabs on it, so it is not something taken lightly.

Often regulations govern what type of mud they can use, but switching from water based to oil based would mean they are anticipating gas soon.  Increasing the density and visvosity of the mud will help avoid gas kick backs and gas from flowing into the well while drilling.  Although I don't know much about it, I think oil based muds would perform better than water based mud with an ass load of sythetic and natural additives to increase the viscosity.  Laws or costs may also play a role in the decision to make the switch, but either way, it is a good sign as they are expecting gas targets in the next lot of drilling


----------



## Agentm

nice quarterly.. i was nervous about ADI perhaps announcing new projects, and therefor indicating a lack of confidence in SL and NT,, and i note they say they are keeping their massive cash reserves to fund the current projects!! this is very pleasing news for me,, it shows exactly how confident these guys are on the sugarloaf venture. focusing on it now and remaing committed to see it through.. excellent..


----------



## tomcat

Someone is not too confident there is one seller at 90c for 486,235 shares


----------



## Agentm

yep, as soon as the quarterly went out.. my guess would be a larger shareholder or institution profit taking..


----------



## tomcat

I still hold however and agree with AgentM, there was nothing new in the quarterly and they have a heap of cash to develop SL and NT...the next month is going to be interesting


----------



## barney

tomcat said:
			
		

> Someone is not too confident there is one seller at 90c for 486,235 shares




Howdy TC and other holders,  My first impression of the large sell was also "whoa" ........... , but then I thought, this person (more likely insto or group of owners etc.) could be holding several million shares at a very low entry price, and to put this sell order in at this level might in fact force a few "fence dwellers" to sell their positions at lower prices than they otherwise might have (kind of a test the water scenario)  or as AgentM said simply a large holder locking in some profits (and if I held a few million shares I would probably do the same) ....... As it turned out not too many "cheaper" sellers jumped in, so I see it as a positive sign regardless .......... but I am a bit biased ............ I still think sugarloaf could be the "mother" of all cabbages!!  (for those who don't know,   sugarloaf is a type of cabbage ...........my old man grows them, and they taste pretty damn good!! .... lets hope that is a good omen)     Barney.


----------



## Agentm

Reading the report over again, then just a thought about ole couchy sprung to mind again,, funny how he still resonates despite the long silence.. 

_As reported prior to the commencement of the well, the mean potential reserves for the Hosston Formation are 800 BCF of gas, and the mean potential reserves for the shallow targets are 100 BCF gas *equivalent*._​ 
For those who doubt couchy.. its still there.. just read it the way they state it.. gas for the primary and gas "equivalent" for the secondary..

I see that half the massive dump of shares sold.. nice work for a relatively quite day..

While i am at this secondary thing......

Last month on the road show they were saying 170 BCF on the secondaries on the upside and 1.5 TCF for the primary upside,  and today they still use the conservative lowest size for the secondaries as they have all along. It doesnt take a rocket scientist to know that the secondaries were way higher than the upside total, so 170 BCF is out the door.. so its got to be 300 - 400BCF upside territory... 

I still hold for all that and more..


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM

Based upon the current prevailing gas prices in the region of 
around US$6.50 per mcf (approx. AUD$8.50 per mcf) this could provide Strike Oil 
with the order of AUD$400 million in gross revenues based upon its 25% working 
interest and a 200bcf discovery.

-if 400mill is what STX value there 50BCF

ADI could be looking at 200Bcf + 2mmbl oil at sugarloaf= 1.6billion value=  16xMarketcap

As for EKA 20-30 bagger easy EKAO the rocketship


----------



## HRL

Enough!  You're getting me all excited  :bananasmi


----------



## EEE

Getting a few punters buying up today, could be quite an afternoon

Could it possibly be in anticipation of an announcement early next week on SL & NT?


----------



## Agentm

nice to see a lot of trade for once


interesting days indeed!!!

are we starting to hear things?


----------



## EEE

Hi AgentM

As an aside, and trying to read between the lines as you’ve often said…

I think there were a few of us who were a little surprised when we read that production testing would take 2 months to complete. Upon reading the Hartleys report and announcements released by Adelphi, I was under the impression that once commenced, testing would take approximately 2 weeks until results are obtained. I’m not sure if I’m correct but I also interpreted the announcement to mean that 2 months would be the total time to test both the primary and secondaries.

On a separate note, I remember reading that if the primary turns out to be unproductive (touch wood), then the workover rig used to do the testing could be immediately employed to test the secondaries. If the primary was productive, then a separate rig would have to be sourced to test the secondaries. 

Considering these factors, could one hypothesize that management have given a time-frame of two months because they ‘know’ it will take time to source another rig, because they ‘know’ that they won’t be able to use the same rig, because they ‘know’ that the primary will be successful?

I hope the above is clear, just a thought that’s been rolling around in my head.  

Would appreciate your, or anyone else’s thoughts.


----------



## Agentm

the way i read it is that they frac and flow test the primary, then maybe do the secondary..

the only way they will do the secondary is if the primary wasnt commercial.. thats my opinion. its impossible to see them risk a well that cost as much as it did on fracing and flowtesting anything else.. so i think in a very short period of time we will be seeing some results of the flow test, and then if its commercial they will make it into a production well. 

the secondaries were decided on months ago.. flow testing will only give them data on something i feel they know is already commercial.  

thats the way i see it.. doesnt matter, its all good in any case!!


----------



## cicak_kupang

How do people feel the results for SL will be announced?  Will the JVP's say that the well is flowing at xxx million cubic feet/day,or that the reserves are estimated at xxxxxbcf/tcf?  How do we calculate flow rate per day into reserve size, and life of well, so we can value the SP?  Any thoughts..... as i'm sure its not as straight forward as it may seem.


----------



## wallave

cicak...
I was wondering along the same lines...
Hopefully some of the more informed, Maverick or AgentM can answer.
Thanks also in advance.

Cheers


----------



## fflintoff

*“the successful Sugarloaf-1 well onshore Texas”*

Article on  ARQ which describes Sugarloaf as “the successful Sugarloaf-1 well onshore Texas” i.e. without any qualifications etc

http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html

“2007 Will See The Drillbit Test ARC Energy's Diversified Portfolio With Wells Planned In The Canning Basin And Yemen 

Over the past couple of years Australia's ARC Energy has been looking to diversify its Perth Basin business. This diversification process started with a shareholding in exploration outfit Adelphi Energy, currently drilling in the US, grew with the 2005 acquisition of Voyager, which held interests in Yemen, and has continued with the purchase of a significant spread of assets in Australia's Canning Basin. 

These interests have balanced out a portfolio that was heavily weighted to the Perth Basin in Western Australia. Focusing on one area enabled ARC to leverage its expertise, acreage and infrastructure, but the company recognized the need to cast its net wider to find another foundation asset that will keep its pipeline of prospects flowing over the next three to five years. 

This is not to say the Perth Basin doesn't retain a special place in the ARC business model. It is, afterall, the sole source of the company's production, which in the last business quarter hit record levels, helping to lift sales revenues for the quarter by A$1 million, almost hitting A$30 million for the three-month period, despite a 22 per cent drop in the price of oil. Oil volumes were up 34 per cent, largely due to the contribution from the completed Jingemia-8, Eremia-6 and Hovea-12 wells. Gas production was slightly down due to natural field declines. 

And the company continues to grow its Perth Basin business. After a period of development work aimed at boosting cash flows, the company is now looking at exploration opportunities. In recent years the exploration record has been patchy, prompting a major geological review of the Perth Basin to better pinpoint prospects. Those now on the drawing board include the onshore targets Drakea-1 and Beharra Springs Deep-1 while offshore the company is eying two firm wells, Frankland and Perseverance, and one contingent well, Dunsborough. 

Investors will, however, be keeping a close eye on the company's new ventures. These include the Canning Basin, a remote and little drilled area in the north of Western Australia. Over the past six months ARC has assembled an extensive acreage position in the Canning Basin and this year it plans to drill up to eight high impact wells, with the first, Stokes Bay-1, expected to spud in April or May. 

This well has two targets: the shallower Point Torment gas sand and the deeper Valentine prospect. In all some 20 leads and prospects have been identified on the new acreage. To help prioritise prospects and formulate forward drilling plans, the company plans to acquire aeromagnetic data, gravity data and over 1,000 km of 2D seismic in the 2007 dry season. 

In Yemen, ARC has a 15 per cent interest in Block 35, with drilling expected to start in March on the Reeb-1 exploration well. This will be followed by the Magrabah-1 well and possibly one further well. The company also has a 21.25 per cent share of blocks 7 and 74, which have yet to be formerly ratified by the Yemeni government. This is expected shortly, at which point the joint venture will start seismic work in mid-2007 ahead of drilling in 2008. 

Finally, having seen shares in Adelphi Energy increase three-fold on the back of the successful Sugarloaf-1 well onshore Texas, ARC has exercised its option to increase its shareholding from 28 per cent to 32 per cent. This could prove astute, particularly as the New Taiton well is now drilling ahead and Sugarloaf has yet to be tested. Adelphi also has a small stake in Yemeni blocks 7 and 74. With wells on its own account and through Adelphi, ARC can promise investors plenty of drillbit-led newsflow in the year ahead. “


----------



## Agentm

i would have thought the forward planning of further wells at sugarloaf in itself was an indication of exploration success, regardless of confirmation of TD and any form of flow testing..

ARQ has always been bullish on the well in all the presentations i have sat in on. I cant imagine they will change their positive tune.

things must be getting close, both the gas zones at NT and the commencement of flowtesting.. 

BTW if you read the report on flow testing from the 29th jan carefully, you may note it says it will start flow testing withing 2 weeks, and then goes on to say something very interesting... as usual you have to read between the lines..

_Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests._

if you remember the frustrating days of drilling and getting double meanings and hidden messages, then you must assume that they could be well and truely flow testing as we speak, and we can only expect the usual standard practice of "material developments" being reported.. so perhaps dont expect any major announcements or indications of where they are at between now and when things get announced!!  I have yet to see them change their practice of maintaining a closed well senario as much as possible.

once again all IMHO and DYOR...​


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM

hope ya right -Agent man-I see John Campbells been talking Sugarloaf  down again saying it'll be lucky to hold 200BCF.   Hope he's wrong got alot invested in Sugarloaf


----------



## Agentm

you know he was the first to say that the well was dry, and then after they announced potential commercial finds he had nothing to say, now he is proved to be incorrect and had already advised his followers to leave, they did... so they lost a bundle,, great news for those who didnt follow him.. 

since then he had a bid at floating a company, and failed.. in todays environment its pretty hard to fail spectacularily in a float.. even ex criminals and bankrupts like alan bond are back on the scene and floating companies... 

who on earth listens to someone like him when texas crude is doing a commercial flow testing on a well he told everyone to bail on..

i guess those who believe him had better make tracks!! good luck to them on their next venture and hope they made a good gain on the stock!!


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:
			
		

> you know he was the first to say that the well was dry, and then after they announced potential commercial finds he had nothing to say, now he is proved to be incorrect and had already advised his followers to leave, they did... so they lost a bundle,, great news for those who didnt follow him..
> 
> since then he had a bid at floating a company, and failed.. in todays environment its pretty hard to fail spectacularily in a float.. even ex criminals and bankrupts like alan bond are back on the scene and floating companies...
> 
> who on earth listens to someone like him when texas crude is doing a commercial flow testing on a well he told everyone to bail on..
> 
> i guess those who believe him had better make tracks!! good luck to them on their next venture and hope they made a good gain on the stock!!




KAPOW!  cop that!


----------



## Agentm

dont see a mass exodus!! maybe no one listened?


----------



## Lucky_Country

I cant belive people are selling ADI at this exciting time in its history let alone seeing the price drop not sure what they are thinking


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> I cant belive people are selling ADI at this exciting time in its history let alone seeing the price drop not sure what they are thinking



There are not many sellers. Same with AUT where there has only been one trade today for 10,000. There is always someone needs some cash and will take what offers.


----------



## tomcat

Patience is the key for this one, we cant be too far away from more news...be interesting to see the drilling report for NT tomorrow and where they are at.


----------



## Agentm

i am with you nioka..

ADI did have a strong focus on the secondaries prior to the TD and prior to the reporting of commercial shows on the primary. Their forward plan was for two wells at least. very bullish

Its interesting to see them no longer mention it, and my belief is that the primary is now entirely on their and texas crudes focus. They have no intention of flow testing the secondaries, its listed as an after thought, with the focus now entirely on the fracing and getting a strong flow for the primaries first production well.. you dont throw 2 million at a fracing program unless you have a very high level of confidence and a good set of numbers to work with.. 

So lets see how they will tackle the secondary, as they are now practically forced to drill away without flow testing on them, which shows how uber confident they have been on them..

no doubt news on NT will start to surface in very near term..

remaining as confident as ever on this share..


----------



## Sniffer

Agentm said:
			
		

> i would have thought the forward planning of further wells at sugarloaf in itself was an indication of exploration success, regardless of confirmation of TD and any form of flow testing..
> 
> ARQ has always been bullish on the well in all the presentations i have sat in on. I cant imagine they will change their positive tune.
> 
> things must be getting close, both the gas zones at NT and the commencement of flowtesting..
> 
> BTW if you read the report on flow testing from the 29th jan carefully, you may note it says it will start flow testing withing 2 weeks, and then goes on to say something very interesting... as usual you have to read between the lines..
> 
> _Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests._
> 
> if you remember the frustrating days of drilling and getting double meanings and hidden messages, then you must assume that they could be well and truely flow testing as we speak, and we can only expect the usual standard practice of "material developments" being reported.. so perhaps dont expect any major announcements or indications of where they are at between now and when things get announced!!  I have yet to see them change their practice of maintaining a closed well senario as much as possible.
> 
> once again all IMHO and DYOR...​




There is no reason to believe that flow testing has already started.  I believe someone in this thread said that the last thing ADI wants to do is misguide their investors.  I imagine that they are true to their word and flow testing will begin in a week or so.  It take a lot of work and coordination to test a well (secure a work over rig, upgrade the roads to handle the heavy duty fracing equipment, probably even line up a piping contractor to tie the well in the local gathering system if it is commercial.) If the well is commercial, the JVP will look to turn a profit rather quickly.


----------



## Agentm

the jvp's have always kept very low key on all information, and i wouldnt be suprised to see the usual closed shop approach continue,

i always hope they would disclose all information, i hope we hear more info prior, but i dont hold up much hope for that... 

it isnt about misguiding investors, its more a case of keeping everything closed shop. they have in the past told us all we need to know, and most of it was very hidden in the announcements. gas shows were very well disguised and later announced with a bit more positive slant.. suddenly they are flow testing, could be today yesterday, tomorrow..

who is to say the workover rig isnt already on site and its only days from the announcement before the flow testing, if you read the announcement it doesnt say a workover rig is about to arrive on site.. it says a program for testing  is anticipated to start.. to me that means a flow testing program is commencing not a workover rig arriving.. the workover rig was announced earlier..

again i hope we get more info but i remain sceptic that the market has been told everything it needs to know and next news will be anything "material"..



*Sugarloaf-1 Well Testing Program 

*[font=Arial,Arial]A program for testing the primary Hosston Formation target in the Sugarloaf-1 well has been accepted by the Joint Venture and is anticipated to start within two weeks. 

A zone with indications of gas interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows during drilling is planned to be tested by high density perforation of the production casing over selected intervals in the lower part of the well. 

Subject to results the program could be amended, including extended flow testing of zones, but is expected to take up to two months to be completed. 

[/font]Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests.​ 
the part i marked in red is the bit only adi put in their release, the other JVP's did not make that comment in their joint release, you may notice that adi also took the lead on the announcements release, to me adi is saying they will only announce "material developments and results from these tests"..

i am not convinced they are not right now today flow testing.. but i could be wrong.. 

DYOR and all IMHO

cheers


----------



## wallave

the old eka's / ekao's have copped a hidding the last couple of weeks.

If the flow tests come up with the goods then out of the three partners they should certainly get the biggest % boost from these levels.


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:
			
		

> the jvp's have always kept very low key on all information, and i wouldnt be suprised to see the usual closed shop approach continue,
> 
> i always hope they would disclose all information, i hope we hear more info prior, but i dont hold up much hope for that...
> 
> it isnt about misguiding investors, its more a case of keeping everything closed shop. they have in the past told us all we need to know, and most of it was very hidden in the announcements. gas shows were very well disguised and later announced with a bit more positive slant.. suddenly they are flow testing, could be today yesterday, tomorrow..
> 
> who is to say the workover rig isnt already on site and its only days from the announcement before the flow testing, if you read the announcement it doesnt say a workover rig is about to arrive on site.. it says a program for testing  is anticipated to start.. to me that means a flow testing program is commencing not a workover rig arriving.. the workover rig was announced earlier..
> 
> again i hope we get more info but i remain sceptic that the market has been told everything it needs to know and next news will be anything "material"..
> 
> 
> 
> *Sugarloaf-1 Well Testing Program
> 
> *[font=Arial,Arial]A program for testing the primary Hosston Formation target in the Sugarloaf-1 well has been accepted by the Joint Venture and is anticipated to start within two weeks.
> 
> A zone with indications of gas interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows during drilling is planned to be tested by high density perforation of the production casing over selected intervals in the lower part of the well.
> 
> Subject to results the program could be amended, including extended flow testing of zones, but is expected to take up to two months to be completed.
> 
> [/font]Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests.​
> the part i marked in red is the bit only adi put in their release, the other JVP's did not make that comment in their joint release, you may notice that adi also took the lead on the announcements release, to me adi is saying they will only announce "material developments and results from these tests"..
> 
> i am not convinced they are not right now today flow testing.. but i could be wrong..
> 
> DYOR and all IMHO
> 
> cheers




I ´m sure we will get an Ann when the testing starts including a bit of detail.
Today ´s statement from AUT infers that testing hasn ´t started yet.

“Sugarloaf Prospect (20% Working Interest) Texas, USA 
The first well on this project, Sugarloaf#1 was drilled to Total Depth (TD) during the period, encountering a number of promising gas shows. As at the date of this report, testing of the primary target zones is due to commence in the current month. “

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20070206.pdf 6 Feb 2007


----------



## tomcat

The NT well must have taken a while longer than they thought to convert to the oil based mud system...they only managed to drill 419ft through the week. Looks like it will be close to another week before they get into the target zones.

No news yet on Sugarloaf.

It is like pulling teeth at the moment but I believe the wait will be worth it.


----------



## Agentm

i hope we get news on SL.. not convinced but hopeful..

NT is slow, i believe they have ironed out the bugs,, they definately are expecting big gas kicks so they need to be sure this refurbished rig can handle all the extremes.. All delays will not cost ADI a cent, its all rig operator costs..  i think the drill rate will be full speed ahead now.

not long to go.. seems every week its not long to go.


----------



## tomcat

AgentM...do you read anything into the fact that Aurora didn't mention SL at all in its operations report released today?


----------



## Agentm

usually they just post the adi report,, probably just an oversight.


----------



## nioka

tomcat said:
			
		

> AgentM...do you read anything into the fact that Aurora didn't mention SL at all in its operations report released today?



It suggested to me that there was nothing to report. I check before the start of trading each day for a trading halt . I expect there to be a trading halt before the next announcement on sugarloaf as it will be either good or bad news next time we are told anything. I'm expecting good news. I expect that's where I'll hear it first.


----------



## surfingman

nioka said:
			
		

> It suggested to me that there was nothing to report. I check before the start of trading each day for a trading halt . I expect there to be a trading halt before the next announcement on sugarloaf as it will be either good or bad news next time we are told anything. I'm expecting good news. I expect that's where I'll hear it first.




My thoughts as well on this one, waiting for the trading halt and hopefully very good news....


----------



## Agentm

*Indian Company BPCL Farmin to AC/P32 Timor Sea 
​*_​_​Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) is pleased to advise that a farmin agreement has been signed between the AC/P32 Joint Venture parties and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL). Under the terms of the agreement, BPCL will pay the Joint venture parties a sum of US$1.42 million to cover the costs of 3D seismic purchase, processing, interpretation and other works and be assigned a 20% interest in the License. All existing parties are participating in this exchange on a pro-rata basis; as such Adelphi’s share of this sum is approximately US$328,000. 

Following payment of the above funds, the Joint Venture interests will be: Coogee Resources (Operator) 24.64% *Adelphi Energy 18.48% *Westranch Holdings (Norwest) 24.08% BPCL 20.00% Bounty Oil and Gas 12.80% 

A second phase of the agreement provides BPCL with the first right to take any additional interest offered by the original parties in exchange for a promoted share of the drilling costs of the next exploration well. If BPCL declines any such offer, the original parties are free to then seek other farmin parties. The license terms require one well to be drilled in the 12 month period beginning May 27th 2007, entry into which will be optional for all parties. The Farm in Agreement defines election dates in order to provide sufficient time for decision making prior to entry into the next year’s commitments. Over the last six month period Coogee Resources has led the interpretation work on a 3D seismic database (much of which has already been reprocessed) which covers the entire license area. Other Joint Venture parties have also conducted review work and as a result, a number of substantial and exciting prospects are currently undergoing final interpretation and ranking. The block is surrounded by oil and gas discoveries and fields which are either producing or planned for development, and as such, is in a very promising but under-explored area. 
BPCL is a Fortune 500 company. BPCL’s main business focus is in refining and marketing of petroleum products in India, and it has recently entered the upstream oil and gas industry via an aggressive acquisition program through farmin and bid rounds. The company has a market capitalisation of approximately US$3 billion, a sales turnover in 2004/2005 of US$14billion, and in 2005-06 of almost US$ 19 billion; and it employs over 13,500 staff


anyone know what coogee found??​


----------



## chops_a_must

Nah, I haven't been able to find anything. Actually, I don't think they have found anything. By the way Agentm, what do you think of NWE and AED, if you like oil stocks? Mmm, Puffin field...


----------



## fflintoff

surfingman said:
			
		

> My thoughts as well on this one, waiting for the trading halt and hopefully very good news....



They haven ´t even started the testing yet so how can there be a trading halt. We will be notified of the start date. Probably next week, without any hitches.


----------



## cicak_kupang

Does anybody have access to the "live streaming" google earth?  Could just type in the co-ord's of SL, and we'd an idea what they're up to over a couple of days........???????????


----------



## surfingman

fflintoff said:
			
		

> They haven ´t even started the testing yet so how can there be a trading halt. We will be notified of the start date. Probably next week, without any hitches.




fflintoff i wasnt saying they have started testing, my thoughts are ADI will inform us when they start testing and the results when they recieve them, it may be 2 months but i think it will be worth the wait.

Therefore a trading halt with the results....


----------



## fflintoff

surfingman said:
			
		

> fflintoff i wasnt saying they have started testing, my thoughts are ADI will inform us when they start testing and the results when they recieve them, it may be 2 months but i think it will be worth the wait.
> 
> Therefore a trading halt with the results....



surfingman,
Fully agree. Two months could be worse case i.e. inc the secondary program if the primaries are duff.


----------



## kevro

Just noticed that a director of AUT has just purchased 1.5 million shares on the 7/2/07. Could be just converting his cheap oppies but also could be a vote of confidence in SL.


----------



## nioka

kevro said:
			
		

> Just noticed that a director of AUT has just purchased 1.5 million shares on the 7/2/07. Could be just converting his cheap oppies but also could be a vote of confidence in SL.



He was converting options. (@ 20c) but well ahead of time according to the announcement. Another form of overpayment to directors which stinks.


----------



## ndzg

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ..... as per post above, we will be alert for some
> positive news over the next couple of days .....
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi
> 
> 
> 
> =====



Hi Yogi, How do you know ADI will be on the boil by Dec 2007? I have been trying to learn Gann methods for a while now and is there a cycle(s) due at that time? Thanks, ndzg


----------



## nioka

fflintoff said:
			
		

> They haven ´t even started the testing yet so how can there be a trading halt. We will be notified of the start date. Probably next week, without any hitches.



Extract from ADI releases: Further ASX releases in relation to Sugarloaf 1 testing program will be made upon any developments and results from these tests. 
I still believe there will be a trading halt at that time as an announcement in that situation will definitely be significant. (one way or another.)


----------



## Agentm

its like watching grass growing..  this is painfully slow..

lets hope for the trading halt and announcements early next week,, 

NT has to happen shortly,, didnt i say that like 100 times already..  ok.. NT will happen if they pick up the drill rate to more than 18 meters per day!!


----------



## Dukey

Did you guys see the Sugarloaf/New Taiton video on the Adelphi website?
Dunno how long its been there - but quite good. Interesting to see where my cash is. 

Also - someone (Cicak) posted earlier about 'google earth'.  - Would be great to have 'live streaming - realtime' google earth but as far as i Know it doesn't exist.  Most places I have checked out show old images only. For example - go look at North Qld now - and it's still all brown and dry from before the rain/flood. Dunno how old the images are. I get the impression that the areas with most hits may be updated more regularly. but just guessing there.


----------



## INORE

Agent M....bit new to all this......do u think the initial flow test results will be released to market as they get them or, in one hit, at the end of the two month or so program...?
cheers


----------



## wallave

As per the last release on 29th Jan, "testing the primary Hosston Formation in Sugarloaf-1 well has been accepted by the JV and is anticipated to start within 2 weeks".

Well, 2 weeks from the 29th is Mon the 10Feb.....so lets hope some stage next week some good news will _flow_.


----------



## maverick11

Yes painfully slow! ...Been riding this one for a while now.  I can't see it getting much lower than today, and now I'm hoping to get $30k more at these prices on Monday.  Must be top 20 by now  :   NT is now cased and drilling ahead, so gas shows are just around the corner which should prop things up until SL results.

I think someone mentioned a few posts ago something about our moron friend over at NT Oil, John Campbell has been putting negative word out again... has anyone seen the report or able to elaborate??  I personally can't see any downside with such good prospects on the cards and I am suitably impressed with ADI management and the way they have handled everything to date.


----------



## Agentm

hey inore..

my understanding of it is as follows.

1/ the full fracing and production flow testing will only take two weeks.

2/ no announcements will be made either of commencement of flow testing times, we will simply get data announced when the data comes to hand.

some believe ADI will announce when they commence, i believe its possible their last announcement may mean they have announced their intentio to flow test and all we will get is the mandatory announcements as required by the rules of the asx..  and that means they have already started flow testing.. i still believe this as they have not announced anything further now the two weeks are up. if they were not flow testing they surely have to tell the market that the 2 weeks is being extended?? so i think the announcement was telling us in their usual way in which you have to read between the lines.. this has been the standard practice all the way through. and they have said they will only announce flow testing in the following fashion..

Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests.

3/ i personally believe the workover rig is already on site and the delay was for a fracing crew and equipment to arrive for the specialised and high temp fracing they need to do..

they will not wait 2 months before announcing, i fully expect a production test results announcement in the coming weeks.. i believe we are very close to the announcement.  

hey mav, i have not seen campbells report, only hear from the forum,, i dont follow him.. 

this is all IMHO and DYOR..


----------



## INORE

Thanks Agent M....I agree with you, as you stated they have allready ann they are going to flow test, so all the market legally needs is the results of these tests.  Come to think of it, this is similar to the way Antares (AZZ) have usually gone about their business....

Reading the ADI website it appears that Sugarloaf is less risk in all aspects (except depth) when compared with New Taiton.  I read that it was textbook formation.  Hope springs eternal.


----------



## nioka

Dukey said:
			
		

> Also - someone (Cicak) posted earlier about 'google earth'.  - Would be great to have 'live streaming - realtime' google earth but as far as i Know it doesn't exist.  Most places I have checked out show old images only. For example - go look at North Qld now - and it's still all brown and dry from before the rain/flood. Dunno how old the images are. I get the impression that the areas with most hits may be updated more regularly. but just guessing there.



The google earth on the free site is months behind. I have tried to suscribe for the full service but must have clicked a wrong box and it hasn't come through. Will try again sometime.


----------



## Sniffer

I lot of uranium was mined in that area of the US during the 70s and 80s.  Any chance they found more that oil and gas in that hole?


----------



## Dukey

Now that would be an interesting spanner in the works.
How close is close??


----------



## Agentm

guess work at best now..


my call is they have had their 2 weeks and no announcement, so my gut feeling is they have commenced flow testing.. and then will announce the result of the production test on the primary after about 2 weks,, so my guess is that within 2 weeks we will have the answer..

we have new tiaton about to intersect the 3 zones also,, so i can see some upside there also..

still looking forward to the next few days to see if things change on the news side.. i prefer if i was wrong and they reported more


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well the next 4 weeks could be the most exciting in the companys history.
SL fraccing results NT targets being drilled all in all news should soon start too flow.


----------



## Sniffer

With the workover rig in place.  I wonder if we will get an announcement today?


----------



## cicak_kupang

nioka said:
			
		

> The google earth on the free site is months behind. I have tried to suscribe for the full service but must have clicked a wrong box and it hasn't come through. Will try again sometime.




Sorry guy's, live streaming from google earth is what i had believed you get from the us$400 google earth "professional" version. I have only used the free version, and yep its months behind. If there is no live streming, surly you can get current on the spot photo's of what ever it is you want to look at?  
Hope thats all a bit more clear.....
Exciting times ahead for ADI holders..........yippeeeeee


----------



## Dukey

I think the one on the right looks like someone we know.
could be... Mr Couch???


----------



## Agentm

everywhere i look i  see elephants stomping... i get the feeling somethings about to happen real soon..  no frenzy on the stocks yet as no one gets it.. market was blindsided again!!

i tend to remain convinced the production testing has at some stage in the past two weeks has commenced..  i dont see any follow up announcements in the last two weeks saying anything about workover rigs or anything.. so i remain very convinced to JVP's have done it again and kept the reporting down to a minimum and all we will get from today is the results from the flow testing.. 

so now i am getting very very interested on the adi stock.. who's going to sell now this close to an announcement???

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## nioka

nioka said:
			
		

> It suggested to me that there was nothing to report. I check before the start of trading each day for a trading halt . I expect there to be a trading halt before the next announcement on sugarloaf as it will be either good or bad news next time we are told anything. I'm expecting good news. I expect that's where I'll hear it first.



Just like to repeat last weeks post as it still applies.(and we are a week closer.)


----------



## cicak_kupang

We're going through a bit of a sell off at the moment.  Anybody buying now is getting a good deal. ADI said the sp is worth $1, it's around 81c, so you could say there's a 20% profit just there.  I couldn't help myself, just to get more this morning...


----------



## Sniffer

Hopefully only good things here on out.  If the workover rig went up in the last 24-48 hours, how long to test the first zone?


----------



## Agentm

hey sniffer. i agree on only good news.

lets say the workover is either up or about to about to be up and running,, then flow testing must commence in the next week or so..

my initial wish is for 2 or so weeks of flow testing and fracing, but that is optomistic.. maybe weeks, up to 8 weeks??? deep well, specialised equipement, and things always dont go to plan.. i think my eagerness for a early result is not going to happen.. 

maybe its likely the NT well will be at TD and wirelined before the results of the primary is out..

well time to go to sleep for a few months as nothing is going to happen in the near term it seems other than the NT well.. and maybe a few exciting and enticing snippets of data fom the primary to fire things up..


----------



## maverick11

any clues why there's been a bit of a sell down?  john campbell?? I was tied up with work and didn't get more today - hopefully tomorrow


----------



## Agentm

low volumes, nothing really.. when announcements come from flow tests the big money arrives and the sp will rise very rapidly..  also NT news will filter shortly and as they are about to arrive at the targets in the very near term i feel sure the positive news from there will have a positive run on the sp

expecting announcements today re the flow testing..

the process will be very technical and is not as straight forward as i thought. i envisage longer periods of testing on the primary, and the longer we hear nothing the better the news will be on this well production test.

the secondaries at SL are still the key to this share,, plenty of upside on it to come also..


----------



## HRL

AgentM... Thinking out loud a bit here but when I first saw ADI last year I was thinking SL would come through first then NT and other projects later on giving us a nice steadily increasing chart (perfect world scenario!).  It now looks like SL (the bigger/slower project) and NT (the smaller & quicker) might come good at the same or similar time (mid year?) with little to get excited about until then... as you say things seldom happen as quickly as you want but with the sp trading pretty low (IMO) but sitting firm at 80ish and the potential for two wells splurting at the same time... patience will be tested but rewarded I feel.  Obviously just my opinion and making the assumption that both SL & NT will actually produce to the companies expectation.


----------



## Agentm

i understand your thinking HRL..

we will obviously get the NT reports in the coming week, and of all the wells that adi has, the NT targets are dead set low risk, with extremely good seismics and hydrocarbon overlays.. it was the one that i really had most faith in..

a bit over a year ago i became aware of the chalks and started to invest heavily in adi again on the basis that the secondary had also a better than average rating, turns out i did the right thing as the secondaries are by all accounts far better than anyone dreamed.. I cant wait for the next well on the secondaries as once they start there we have some exciting news coming our way i feel.

the primary, would not be tested unless all sampling and wirelines had extremely good figures, so i believe they have a great chance of getting flow, it is going to be technical difficult and only very specialised equipment is capable of fracing that far down. I would say by the seamless operation so far, the TCO operators will have one of the best teams on the fracing program, any company dealing with multi TCF targets are not going to emply anyone to frac, and i believe the people and equipment they will use will be similar to everything they have used so far. only the best..

i imagine announcements must come soon...

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## nioka

ADI and AUT both on pre open?????


----------



## chops_a_must

nioka said:
			
		

> ADI and AUT both on pre open?????



According to EKA, Sugarloaf has begun the testing...


----------



## nioka

Trading resumed at 10.12 appears normal. Can't find an announcement.


----------



## EEE

Anyone else find it strange that AUT have declared this 'market sensitive' while the rest haven't?


----------



## nioka

EEE said:
			
		

> Anyone else find it strange that AUT have declared this 'market sensitive' while the rest haven't?



The ASX must have considered it market sensitive to have held the shares in 'preopen" for 10mins this morning.


----------



## Agentm

*The Sugarloaf 1 well testing program has now commenced. *

its official

let the games begin!!!!


with the market sensitive stuff, its usually the first one that comes out that gets the market sensitive mark, the others dont..


----------



## stereo21

...plus based on current drilling rates, we may start to get news about NT next week as well!


----------



## EEE

Cheers AgentM

With regards to the testing, ADI have advised that it is expected to take approx two months but does anyone know when we might expect some preliminary results to come through?


----------



## wallave

In the release it states "Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made uponany material deveolpments and results from these tests"

The way read that is that they will be releases and market sensitive data as it comes to hand, whether that is good or bad flowing.

Fingers crossed now that things have started.

Agent M or Maverick will probably have a better idea as to how long before any data should be received, my guess maybe 2 weeks???

Good luck to all


----------



## Agentm

i guess its best to think about it this way..


if they have bad news you will get it fast... if they frac and cant get flow then they will not muck around with it and waste money.. maybe i am wrong but thats how i see it..

if the progress is good and programs are working you wont be hearing anything, so the longer they take to frac it then obviously the more promising it is,  and therefor it a better sign that the chances of commercial flow are in our favour. 

so no news is good news!! thats my opinion

i imagine if things are promising along the way that we will get some hint of that too!! 

this is all IMHO,, and DYOR,


----------



## barney

Agentm said:
			
		

> i guess its best to think about it this way..
> 
> 
> if they have bad news you will get it fast... if they frac and cant get flow then they will not muck around with it and waste money.. maybe i am wrong but thats how i see it..
> 
> if the progress is good and programs are working you wont be hearing anything, so the longer they take to frac it then obviously the more promising it is,  and therefor it a better sign that the chances of commercial flow are in our favour.
> 
> so no news is good news!! thats my opinion
> 
> i imagine if things are promising along the way that we will get some hint of that too!!
> 
> this is all IMHO,, and DYOR,




Howdy A and other holders,  I am only speculating here, but I would assume they will start at the bottom and work their way back up the well.  If they do not strike anything of consequence at the "first" (bottom) level, then they will move up to the next potential zone of interest.  That being the case, we may not hear anything if the initial testing is "poor", therefore, I would think that the best case scenario would be news in the short-medium term indicating positive results at the lower levels of interest.  They would not be abliged to give news of "no results" at the lower levels, because that could be misconstrued as "negative", when in fact they may "strike" a little further up the well.  I would be looking for some positive results early for confirmation. i think the longer it goes without news, could possibly indicate less success at the low levels, and would indicate the secondaries may be our best chance ......... All speculation as I say, but makes sense to me ...... good luck to holders ..... may the loaf be full of "sugar"!!


----------



## wallave

I tend to agree with that line of thought Barney.  The well testing has commenced, so an announcement about this time next week will hopefully be a good thing.


----------



## Agentm

sounds reasonable to me too.. i dont know enough on this process to know, i have to start researching it now.. 

we need mavericks opinion!!


----------



## INORE

perhaps a technical thread needs to be started up on deep well exploration so the ASF community becomes involved....

I had a look here....http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/search.cfm?Discipline=Production+Testing (there is a tech papers section) but it seems that each hole will be tested with different techiques as it depends on their depth, formations and a host of other technical matters.


----------



## stewart3250

This from ARQ site tonight, note the words I have put in bold :-


The Sugarloaf-1 well was drilled to 6,371m.
Interpretation of wire-line logs indicates that an
aggregate of 27.4m of potential reservoir is gas
saturated. *It is anticipated that Sugarloaf will be
commercial with the assistance of fracture stimulation*

I note it is dated 9 feb 2007, has it only just been released.

Safiande - 14 Feb'07 - 20:45 - 30987 of 30989


3250stewart,
Dated 9 Feb but only released this evening. On the ARQ site together with the ABN AMRO report dtd 12 Feb. 
Good luck with ADI.
Regards.

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/news/broker.php


----------



## Agentm

somehow ARQ is jumping the gun when making presentations to brokers

the one from maquarie research equities says this..



*Adelphi Energy exposure offers upside. ​*​​_Via ARQ’s 32.4% interest in the __independently listed exploration vehicle, Adelphi Energy (ADI), the company __is exposed to high risk/ high reward exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, Yemen __and the Timor Sea. The *recent Sugarloaf exploration well in the GoM was a *__*discovery* with production testing to commence 1Q07. We include 24Acps for __the ARQ’s Adelphi interest in our target price_


​


 
was a *DISCOVERY!!*


*nice one!! *

i like the way they think,,, not yet announced as a discovery but potentially i thinks its coming closer by the day


----------



## maverick11

yes, they will test from bottom up, but the million dollar question is will they keep the market informed of the testing or will they wait till the end when they have all the data in front of them?!  Someone should ask one of the JVP managers


----------



## bazollie

G'day all. I have a query, the "oil find", when was this originally announced?
Also, what is the connection of couch oil with this project?


----------



## Agentm

couch oil announced it with full fanfare on their website in sept, the pages are removed but if you go back through this thread to sept o6 and read there there are many links posted.. since then they changed the website and couch was told to shut up..


i saw this regarding NT on HC the otherday

_









i am a little surprised there isnt more buying today, as per second quarter activities report the first gas zone starts at 3,963 metres, wednesday announcement they were at 3,962 metres so maybe gas shows tomorrow, if not then monday for sure._

_mick _


i wonder how soon before they commence their last run throught the gas zones, must be extremely close..


----------



## maverick11

I think gas reservoirs at NT are anticipated between 4300 and 5200m, so next week I'd say


----------



## tomcat

Tracking up nicely today, could be interesting times next week with NT...hope Agentm wins the stock comp this month


----------



## Broadside

could be good Sugarloaf rumour because EKA is looking good today as well


----------



## EEE

Sure is,

As long as sellers hang tough and let the buyers chase the price up we could quite possibly close around the $1.00 mark. However some big sell orders might be sitting on the side lines waiting to dump for one reason or another.


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> couch oil announced it with full fanfare on their website in sept, the pages are removed but if you go back through this thread to sept o6 and read there there are many links posted.. since then they changed the website and couch was told to shut up..
> 
> 
> i saw this regarding NT on HC the otherday
> 
> _
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i am a little surprised there isnt more buying today, as per second quarter activities report the first gas zone starts at 3,963 metres, wednesday announcement they were at 3,962 metres so maybe gas shows tomorrow, if not then monday for sure._
> 
> _mick _
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i wonder how soon before they commence their last run throught the gas zones, must be extremely close..




Here is the link to the famous page guys:-
http://www.couchoil.com/daily1.asp yes it is still there.


----------



## chops_a_must

Broadside said:
			
		

> could be good Sugarloaf rumour because EKA is looking good today as well



Possibly not because AUT hasn't moved. More likely due to NT. Does anyone have any other thoughts?


----------



## maverick11

nah, AZZ is down, so no rumours.  It's almost hammer time for both NT & SL and I think it's investors trying to jump in (or buy more - myself included) and are having to pay a premium to do so.  We should see some good news next week or the week after at the latest


----------



## INORE

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Possibly not because AUT hasn't moved. More likely due to NT. Does anyone have any other thoughts?




I think it might be sugarloaf as AZZ (NT JV) have gone backwards...I think some people might be expecting some sought of an ann. on sugarloaf next week.


- yeah, what maverick said -


----------



## chops_a_must

INORE said:
			
		

> I think it might be sugarloaf as AZZ (NT JV) have gone backwards...I think some people might be expecting some sought of an ann. on sugarloaf next week.
> 
> 
> - yeah, what maverick said -



In that case AUT is really where people should be going then isn't it?


----------



## Serpie

AZZ finished up 3% today. Smart money pushed it up late.
We AZZ holders are bullish re NT (among others). Getting close to TD.
Could be contributing to ADI SP


----------



## Holiday

Target depths for Ilse-1 well are 3963m to 5183m. It's all happening...


----------



## INORE

Allthough gas shows on NT would be an excellent result, i still think that the big buyers are eying of sugarloaf.

NT has a pre-drill reserve potential range of *40-85 BCF* whereas
Sugarloaf has a pre-drill reserve potential range of *800-1500 BCF*.  Big - BIG difference.  Please, let there be gas and ****e loads of it.


----------



## barney

INORE said:
			
		

> Allthough gas shows on NT would be an excellent result, i still think that the big buyers are eying of sugarloaf.
> 
> NT has a pre-drill reserve potential range of *40-85 BCF* whereas
> Sugarloaf has a pre-drill reserve potential range of *800-1500 BCF*.  Big - BIG difference.  Please, let there be gas and ****e loads of it.




I second that motion and raise you 200 BCF


----------



## kevro

This was posted at another site where it had been copied from another site. Very interesting read.


I must have missed your post yesterday. Well they recored the gas shows at the time that were thought to be of potential significance. You get show 5, 6 and 7 from 18,300 to 18,700 with an average sandstone % of 50% or more. The gas units and C1-C3 remain relatively high, C1 remains around 100ppm, it tails off after 18,800 with a reduction in sandstone and increase in shale. What they did tell us in the recent update is that they cored both the Hosston and Carbonates and from that they would have the possible porosity and gas saturation. The wirelines and mud logs were giving the current lithology and the potential net pay, the gamma logs will differentiate the sandstone from the shale, as the shale has a high carbon organic content and the gamma picks up associated heavy (radioactive carbon). 

From that you will get the ideal section for testing that has good porosity from the cores, high gas saturation, good sandstone vs shale ratio, high % sandstone corresponding with the mud logs (further verified by the gamma logs). That may mean that the highest potential of the net pay can be somewhat reduced, it by no way means that the rest of the potential net pay previously mentioned has been reduced, or wouldn't flow on testing. They have just selected the "best" 90ft from the sections to be fractured and flowed, as they will give the strongest result if positive.

They didn't report on all the gas shows and Couch was releasing some of the logs to the public, the gas shows and ratios of C1-C2 were often continuous and were certainly most notable in the Austin and the Hosston. The main spikes were associted with the shows reported. However, the logs that were leaked early during the well drilling suggest that there are significant increases in gas units from 11,900-12,100, with peaks on and off 12,400-12,700. No wonder Couch commented on flow back of gas when drilling the Austin. There are then sections with virtually no gas units recored from 13-14,000ft etc. When you compare the logs of the Edwards (continuous low leves of C1-C2) to 500ft of the Hosston 18,300-18,800 there is a clear distinction with constantly high gas readings and the peaks reported as shows the deeper reservoirs.

Taking all of the logging information together they have concentrated now on the best 90ft. If you are fraccing in high % sandstone you don't need to fracture your entire reservoir section, nor all shows or peaks with high gas units. With 70% sandstone and the known core data they will assume communication with the remaining reservoir and will have an idea of the permeability from the data already collected (more so when tested and wellhead pressure and flow monitored). Perf your best 90ft and hope that the drainage and pressure from the remaining 167-500ft flows to your well. You need high enough gas saturation, good reservoir drive (gas pressure) and fraccing that opens good channels (premeability). Some of that will be known from ther logging, coring and if they took formation pressure reading, the rest will be known after fracture stimulation. There will be a vast amount of information already known about each of the reservoirs involved in this well. The highest peaks were recorded and reported, they weren't the only peaks.

Taken from advfn, no doubt this person is an expert in this field and what he says makes it look very positive to me. It wont be long now until news starts to flow in


----------



## Agentm

the info from the advfn site is intersting, but not conclusive with the scant info available from the leaked couch well reports,, most of us have seen them and many know that the 90feet is way short of what they got.. 90 feet is what is considered for fracing, and the market is slowly waking up..

there has been no fanfare from the JVP's so far,  my understanding of that is that the fanfare is quite possibly not to far away.

for those like me who accumulated and hold, enjoy the coming days, i feel we are on the brink of becoming an producer, and what a way to begin hey!!

enjoy your rewards!!


----------



## nioka

Those ADI investors expecting instant fortunes should look at the results of MAE gas finds in the USA. They have proven commercial gas, are close to production and their SP is falling. It is hard to relate one to the other but as a holder of ADI and AUT and a watcher of MAE it is not giving me as much comfort as I had a little time ago. Maybe someone with a better mind than mine can work out an explanation.


----------



## tomcat

nioka said:
			
		

> Those ADI investors expecting instant fortunes should look at the results of MAE gas finds in the USA. They have proven commercial gas, are close to production and their SP is falling. It is hard to relate one to the other but as a holder of ADI and AUT and a watcher of MAE it is not giving me as much comfort as I had a little time ago. Maybe someone with a better mind than mine can work out an explanation.




Could be the options nioka, did you see the MAE thread?


----------



## resourceboom

even on primary success, after the first flurry of sp rising activity, i would hazard a guess that adi would still take some time to reach the values estimated by the broker reports.... and they will still have to drill another well to evaluate the secondaries!


----------



## nioka

tomcat said:
			
		

> Could be the options nioka, did you see the MAE thread



Looked at that angle. Can't see them being the answer. The options are almost due and will give the company a good cash injection, they have been there all the time and would have been taken into account. Was the full value paid when the strikes were first made. The volumes of gas are large ones and similar to the probable results of sugarloaf but not as good as the possible. Taking into account that a bird in the hand is as good as 2 in the bush I can't see how ADI and AUT are better value than MAE. Of course ADI may soon be a bird in the hand.


----------



## barney

nioka said:
			
		

> Looked at that angle. Can't see them being the answer. The options are almost due and will give the company a good cash injection, they have been there all the time and would have been taken into account. Was the full value paid when the strikes were first made. The volumes of gas are large ones and similar to the probable results of sugarloaf but not as good as the possible. Taking into account that a bird in the hand is as good as 2 in the bush I can't see how ADI and AUT are better value than MAE. Of course ADI may soon be a bird in the hand.




Howdy N, Is it possible that MAE have taken too long to get to the production stage?? ............ If sugarloaf is successful, isn't the local infastructure such that production will be potentially much swifter??  ..... Perhaps some of the more learned lads around here can elaborate ...........


----------



## Agentm

your right about that barney,, its all there, power, pipelines on the lease itself, and roads and access to all acerage. its a oilmans dream find..

the production well will be tapped in within months of flow testing..

i saw on HC that the sp was being played around with yesterday, as one person pointed out, its a good sign.. you can speculate that if money is coming into the share that needs to be supported by the small sells to lower the sp, then its a sign of more and more confidence.. it could possibly be a move by someone trying to become a major shareholder and keeping things in a tight zone whilst accumulating, as that technique is often employed in managing a move into a company.. 

a bit of news on NT would be appreciated.. that well is slow isnt it??


----------



## resourceboom

next nt news will be in the weekly update,
hope that it doesn't mean no gas so far


----------



## Sniffer

Agentm said:
			
		

> your right about that barney,, its all there, power, pipelines on the lease itself, and roads and access to all acerage. its a oilmans dream find..
> 
> the production well will be tapped in within months of flow testing..
> 
> i saw on HC that the sp was being played around with yesterday, as one person pointed out, its a good sign.. you can speculate that if money is coming into the share that needs to be supported by the small sells to lower the sp, then its a sign of more and more confidence.. it could possibly be a move by someone trying to become a major shareholder and keeping things in a tight zone whilst accumulating, as that technique is often employed in managing a move into a company..
> 
> a bit of news on NT would be appreciated.. that well is slow isnt it??





Your are absolutely correct.  A power substation is about 300 meters away (on the lease).  A gas transmission line meter station about 900 meters away (on the lease).  A gas gathering line about 1000 meters away (Off the lease).  There is an abandoned crude gathering line on the lease about 400 meters away.  The nearest active crude gathering line is 6km away.

Gas will be able to get to the market quickly.  If the secondary is oily, then it may have to truck it our til they can connect with the gathering line.


----------



## resourceboom

thanks for that sniffer, you wouldn't happen to have the google earth co-ordinates would you? (I understand the pictures will be quite old)


----------



## Agentm

i cant see pictures being too useful, but sniffer certainly was on the money, there is abundant production facilities very readily available.

low volumes thus far and none too keen to sell.. all major holders are standing firm as usual.. and as there has never been a pump and dump on this share the majority of holders are in the green on this share.. so much confidence and all we need is the news.


----------



## Sniffer

I agree with AgentM pictures of an empty field will not tell us a thing.  It is just nice to know that the info they have been telling us thus far has been spot on.


----------



## cicak_kupang

yawn.....stretch......aahhhhhh,zzzzzzzz.

I wonder if NT has had drill troubles, again, or if the first target of the Wilcox meek is a flop?


----------



## Agentm

the sp seems to stay in this tight zone.. not that i really am interested in selling any time soon, but find it interesting how the price is slotted right at the low .90's..

mid week report tomorrow for NT..  no sleeping on the job cicak!!


----------



## barney

cicak_kupang said:
			
		

> yawn.....stretch......aahhhhhh,zzzzzzzz.
> 
> I wonder if NT has had drill troubles, again, or if the first target of the Wilcox meek is a flop?




False pessimism ........... I like that ..... very Bullish   .... 

My guess is the news tomorrow will be as "usual" .............. when we get news outside the normal wednesday timeframe is when it will be "interesting"


----------



## Agentm

i think todays news is going to be interesting.

no news on NT for a week when they literally have to be in the zones now for me means today will give me an idea on how NT looks, either way i want to know.

i said this earlier this in another forum, ADI have this uncanny way of presenting news, its very very minimalist, very scant in detail and often dressed down in weekly reports. I saw on a few occassions during SL drilling, that the mid week reports carried significant finds, and very significant information hidden neatly in the wording of the announcements.

usually they have announced without fanfare, and they obviously dont want investors trapped in buying frenzy share price leaps and then cop the aggressive and hostile criticism from investors as the sp falls on the reality of the announcements being dressed up. look at CDU and GDN and look at how many are trapped in the red zones right now,, i maintain the majority on adi are running green and extremely happy with their position. and i am certain the adi attitude is to keep things that way the best they can.

looking forward with interest to any news on NT today..


----------



## Broadside

Sugarloaf-1 Well Testing Program - Lower Hosston Interval Perforated
The first part of the testing program over the lower Hosston interval has been completed by perforating several zones. As per the program design, these zones were not fracture stimulated and no flow of gas was recorded.
As envisaged in the original testing program, the next stage will involve the perforation and fracture stimulation of selected intervals of the upper Hosston sands which are interpreted to have better potential reservoir development as compared to the lower Hosston intervals. The fraccing program is currently scheduled to commence in early March.
Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests.
Participants in the Sugarloaf-1 well are:
Eureka Energy Ltd 1
12.5%
Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al 2
41.5%
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited
20.0%
Adelphi Energy Ltd
20.0%
Empyrean Energy plc
6.0%
1 Through its wholly-owned US subsidiary, Hosston Oil & Gas LP
2 Includes other private US companies / investors


----------



## chops_a_must

So much for reading between the lines etc etc.

No news should be taken as exactly that... no news, i.e. nothing positive.

What is the likelihood of anything coming from SL given that it has been a failure so far?


----------



## tomcat

I don't really understand the difference between perforating and fracture stimulated.  The announcement specifically noted that the zones tested were only perforated rather than fracture stimulated.

Dont know what the go is, would have been better to keep the market informed as to what they were up to rather than the way they have announced this...'nothing here lets see whats further up'

May be time to top up...the market has hammered it today though and with NT taking forever who knows.


----------



## Agentm

i will repeat my post from HC.. 

_my initial thoughts are that they have perforated the lower hosston, now unless i am mistaken, they never had any good gas kicks down there, and the only good area they had was the 29meters in the upper hosston.

i think there is confusion here, i think they perforated the lower to see if any pressure had built up there, maybe a few tight zones?? then decided that there was no gas flow of any nature and along with the wireline and samples they chose to not go further there..

I feel the 29meters in the upper will be the area that will produce..

somehow the market may be reading this wrong.. this morinings announcement clearly says they are now going to do the UPPER HOSSTON..

man if you selling make sure you reading it right!!!!

this is all IMHO

thats all i can see so far..
_

anyone who is selling thinking that the SL well is a fizzer needs to read things real careful, dont judge things and think before you act, the announcements are always cryptic, and i never expected the lower to be productive, and the JVP's never did either, they tested it none the less just to be certain, found no flow and moved on.. nothing has changed, just confirmed what they alrady knew..


----------



## tomcat

I'm still holding, i think an on market sell at the open drove it down and scared most punters. slowly rebuilding...did you get in at 69c Agentm


----------



## bazollie

tomcat said:
			
		

> I don't really understand the difference between perforating and fracture stimulated.  The announcement specifically noted that the zones tested were only perforated rather than fracture stimulated.
> 
> Dont know what the go is, would have been better to keep the market informed as to what they were up to rather than the way they have announced this...'nothing here lets see whats further up'
> 
> May be time to top up...the market has hammered it today though and with NT taking forever who knows.





I don't know whether you would call this bad news. It looks as though there are 4 Potential Gas zones according to the diagram of their potential targets. This diagram shows the deep prospect which they have just perforated which is probably the smallest potential. the next target up is the Major prospect at approximately 5000m in depth. It may be an opportunity to average down a bit if your last buys of ADI were in the 90's?


----------



## tomcat

bazollie said:
			
		

> I don't know whether you would call this bad news. It looks as though there are 4 Potential Gas zones according to the diagram of their potential targets. This diagram shows the deep prospect which they have just perforated which is probably the smallest potential. the next target up is the Major prospect at approximately 5000m in depth. It may be an opportunity to average down a bit if your last buys of ADI were in the 90's?





Thanks Bazollie...do you have a link to that diagram


----------



## Dukey

Crawling back up to 80c now, with many more buyers than sellers lining up.
.... phew!!!!!!!!!!    . that was scary!!!!!!!
but - happily holding for upper hosston and NT news!!


----------



## HOMER J

personally i dont see what all the  fuss was about. drilling into hosston they kept hitting gas in the upper levels and hit almost nothing in the lower part to total depth. so they have tested the lower zones and are moving onto the more interesting upper zones and spending the cash on fraccing them.


----------



## Agentm

perforate means using shot and explosives to perforate the side of the casing.. 

they started testing in the lower as announced, they have now finished..

they perforated and then checked for flow, just in case they missed it.. so nothing new here.. the lower had no gas shows that they reported, so if any where there it wasnt high enough with the porosity and permaibility to get any flow, so forget expensive fracing, and leave it,, nothing in the lower has changed, they have merely checked it and made certain..

totally professional..

today they on to the UPPER HOSSTON

the upper is where the gas shows are and always were,, they are telling us that they ARE going to preforate, frac and flow test it all,, commencing march.. on the 29 meters of gas shows..

what the market has failed to see is that if they did find anything in the lower then the fracing and flow testing program would have been extended... and now, after perforating, they say to you there no flow, as expected, and now the real business goes on..


----------



## constable

Agentm said:
			
		

> perforate means using shot and explosives to perforate the side of the casing..
> 
> they started testing in the lower as announced, they have now finished..
> 
> they perforated and then checked for flow, just in case they missed it.. so nothing new here.. the lower had no gas shows that they reported, so if any where there it wasnt high enough with the porosity and permaibility to get any flow, so forget expensive fracing, and leave it,, nothing in the lower has changed, they have merely checked it and made certain..
> 
> totally professional..
> 
> today they on to the UPPER HOSSTON
> 
> the upper is where the gas shows are and always were,, they are telling us that they ARE going to preforate, frac and flow test it all,, commencing march.. on the 29 meters of gas shows..
> 
> what the market has failed to see is that if they did find anything in the lower then the fracing and flow testing program would have been extended... and now, after perforating, they say to you there no flow, as expected, and now the real business goes on..



That's exactly how i read it but it seems people didnt understand the ann. anyway good oppurtunity here and at eka i would have thought.


----------



## bazollie

tomcat said:
			
		

> Thanks Bazollie...do you have a link to that diagram




G'day Tomcat this link is from ADI website & is a presentation that they realeased- http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...r 2006 - Updated Shareholder Presentation.pdf

Regards
Bazollie


----------



## Agentm

i came this close to breaking my golden rule and selling my other accumulating stock.. just for the fun a quick gain.. but i am no daytrader, and keep to my strategy..

anyone selling, make sure you read the announcements and understand them before you jump,, you may get far better value, perhaps in only a matter of hours the sp will go to where is should,,, and i think there will be a stack of people regretting having sold..


----------



## Agentm

new taiton..

whilst everyone went nuts over nothing on SL  did anyone hapopen to see the NT announcement on AZZ??


From AZZ
*Project: New Taiton

Prospect: New Taiton

Well: Ilse-1

Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%​*The Ilse-1 well has run and cementing a 7​5/8 inch liner to a depth of 13,230 feet (3,962 metres) prior to drilling the remaining section of this well which contains the two primary targets of the New Taiton Prospect.

Wireline logs have been run over the 8  ½ inch hole section to 13,230 feet and hydrocarbon indications in the Upper Wilcox and Wilcox Meek intervals have been identified based on these logs which correspond to gas shows encountered during drilling. The Upper Wilcox and Meek are produced locally in this area. Whilst interesting, with possible producible gas, these intervals were not designated as primary targets. Any decision to test these zones will be made at a later date following the conclusion of drilling and a review of the overall well results. 

Total planned depth for the well is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres).
​
*this from ADI.............

2. Ilse 1 Well – New Taiton Prospect (Adelphi 25% interest)​*Adelphi Energy Limited advises that as at 2pm (Texas time) on 13 February 2007 the Ilse-1 well was drilling ahead at a depth of 12,994 feet (3,962 metres) in 8  ½ inch hole. Progress for the week has been 1,939 feet (591 metres).

Total planned depth for the well is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres).​ 
Ok for the ones who missed it..

ADI have made no announcement of the gas shows and finds, and have completely different depths..

where as AZZ is telling us something different

They found GAS!!!  and are about to go after the primary!!

dont blink or you miss it!!


----------



## Sniffer

From the Well Test Program Announcement
"planned to be tested by high density perforation of the production casing over
selected intervals in the lower part of the well."

They did just that, nothing more or less.  The ann did not mention anything about fracing, just perforation.  They still may be able to produce from that zone, it will just require fracing.

I imagine it will be fraced with the other zones.


----------



## Agentm

i posted incorrctly in my last post, i clicked the wrong operations update,, so adi and AZZ did announce the same thing,, 


my apologies..

also what you are saying siffer, is absolutely correct..


----------



## eckart

ADI ann

2. Ilse 1 Well – New Taiton Prospect (Adelphi 25% interest)
As at 20th February 2007 operations at the Ilse-1 well had progressed to running and
cementing a 7 5/8 inch liner to a depth of 13,230 feet (3,962 metres) prior to drilling the
remaining section of this well which contains the primary targets of the New Taiton Prospect.
Wireline logs have been run over the 8  ½ inch hole section to 13,230 feet and hydrocarbon
indications in the Upper Wilcox and Wilcox Meek intervals have been identified based on
these logs which also correspond to gas shows encountered during drilling. The Upper Wilcox
and Meek are produced locally in this area. Whilst interesting, with possible producible gas,
these intervals were not designated as primary targets. Any decision to test these zones will
be made at a later date following the conclusion of drilling and a review of the overall well
results.

Looks the same to me!!


----------



## fflintoff

*AgentM*

  :rocketwho 
re post 1177.
Addition from Empyrean in England 
"These zones were not fracture stimulated as they were interepreted to have porer ( sic ) reservior development than some of the zones in the upper Hosston sands - however they were perforated to make certain that they were not productive."( EME ).
You are 100% correct in your post above. Well done !


----------



## maverick11

*Re: AgentM*



			
				fflintoff said:
			
		

> :rocketwho
> re post 1177.
> Addition from Empyrean in England
> "These zones were not fracture stimulated as they were interepreted to have porer ( sic ) reservior development than some of the zones in the upper Hosston sands - however they were perforated to make certain that they were not productive."( EME ).
> You are 100% correct in your post above. Well done !




why oh why didn't they word it in simple english like that in the Australian ann's?!!   

That's how I read it yesterday, but it wasn't exactly clear and obviously rattled a lot of holders.  I wonder if the EME ann was re-worded after the aussie dramas ann yesterday?


----------



## resourceboom

I would hazard a guess that the wait until fraccing starts (early march) could be more of a reason now as to why the price is down, rather then a loss of confidence in the primaries? ...just a thought!


----------



## maverick11

resourceboom said:
			
		

> I would hazard a guess that the wait until fraccing starts (early march) could be more of a reason now as to why the price is down, rather then a loss of confidence in the primaries? ...just a thought!




really, nothing is any different than 1 or 2 weeks ago.  Talk about the worlds longest wait!  : 

I'm shi*ty that I didn't have any funds to top up while it was down


----------



## Agentm

if they didnt announce then the market would be wondering in a few weeks whats happening when nothing had happened. so they had to announce basically nothing just to give the understanding of where they were, the real problem is that the wording appears negative when it could very well not be the case.

they have perforated the lower hosston and found the zones of interest were not worthy of immediate fracing,

they are now going to do an intense freacing and flow testing on the upper, so nothing happens until the equipment arrives and the crew is set, it takes a week or so,  and then they frac the upper and flow test, and following on from that and should it be nessesary, they will frac the lower.. so really you cant say that the news on the lower is anything to be too concerned about.

costs for fracing at these depths are massive, the equipment will be on site very very shortly and fracing commencing immediately thereafter. 

decisions made on fracing a well change as conditions arise.. there is no set course in any program really, just as with drilling there are so many variables the program will constantly change each moment to adapt and react to the circumstances below.

NT should have completed the cementing of the liner by now i would have thought, and hopefully will be nearing the drilling of the primaries and i fully expect news on that front in the near term, possibly before any further news on SL comes through.


----------



## Sniffer

The way I read it, we will probably get an announcement before early March.  The Frac is currently scheduled for early March but the perforation will happen between now and then.  If they perforate and get gas flows, they will tell us.  However, if they perforate and get no flow, they will tell us.  No flow after perforation does not tell us much becasue tight sands have to be fraced.  Flow after perforation means large flow after frac.


----------



## cicak_kupang

kevro said:
			
		

> Found this intersting link to Couch Oil & Gas explaining the entire process from who to go of drilling a deep well. Interesting read for newbies like myself.
> 
> http://www.couchoil.com/Oultine of Drilling Process.doc





Hope you dont mind me relisting this link Kevro, but I find point 25 of this link very interesting, and wonder if the JVP's will now *consider multiple completions, from this one well*, that way they will be able to process gas from all the shallower zones aswell.  On top of this ADI are still wanting to drill thier 2 extra well on the shallower zones mid year too.


----------



## Agentm

i agree with your thoughts sniffer..

its all about to unravel in the coming weeks and there is a definate chance of early reports. I suspect the wednesday report remains the place for it..  whether they have flow or not after perforation is irrelevant to the possible result. it goes without saying the well had to be fraced, practically all wells regardless and everything this deep is fraced.. good signs is as you say, flow after perforating. we did have flow in the lower, make no mistake, and no eqipment was on site for fracing, so we know fracing the lower was not a primary objective..

i understand from last wednesdays update the NT well must be close now to the primaries.. I wonder if we get that news again on the midweekly or maybe they will report earlier.. seems to me mostly that due to the very sensitive way business is done in texas, we are on the drip feed on news, and anyhting given is so minimalist it will be difficult to determine with accuracy what the report is actually saying..  on anything texas with adi i find the best info comes from getting a clearer interpretation by speaking to the directors directly..

another long week with scant news is my pick.. but as usual hoping for more.. i still believe i have got one hell of a secondary with SL, and would love to see more than just the current secondary in NT with the wish now for the primaries to be giving strong shows.. 

SL primary for me currently is a strong chance still..


----------



## maverick11

It would seem after last weeks announcement that the SP has become a little volatile.  A breath of positive news to boost confidence would be nice.  I would have also thought that NT news would be released a little more liberally being a different project and JVP.

Something I have been thinking about recently is if the primary turns out to be less than hoped for, the the SP will take a dive then rebound due to the value of the secondaries.  Similar sort of SP action observed last week - but a good chance to top up.  Ideal world of course will be great news on primary followed by secondaries   

I actually have a good feeling about the primaries


----------



## fflintoff

*Antares presentation at Oil Barrel on 22 Feb*

"It may have been a dreary day in February but delegates at oilbarrel.com’s 11th conference had reason to be thankful they were in the city of London rather than New York this week. Just off the plane from The Big Apple, James Cruickshank, executive director of ASX-listed Antares Energy, remained in coat and scarf for his upbeat presentation and sales pitch as he sought to defrost from temperatures of minus 20 degrees. 

But, being an oil man through and through, Cruickshank was delighted to report on these wintry extremes, which promise to lift gas prices in the Lower 48. These are, of course, of keen interest to Antares, which has hitched its fortunes to the US gas market. 

The oil junior is now two years into a three-year strategy to grow into a A$500 million market cap company by the end of this year. Speaking at an oilbarrel.com conference in September 2006, Cruickshank said the Antares management would deliver on this promise or die trying, with suicide notes all round. oilbarrel.com regulars are keen listeners and, during the Q&A session at the end of his well-received presentation, Cruickshank was asked whether he was making plans for New Year: the Antares man said he didn’t believe suicide notes would be necessary because “it would be extremely difficult for this company to fail”. 


His confidence appears well justified given the results from the four high impact wells that are Antares’ opening gambit in South Texas. It’s not all been plain sailing: the Lonesome Dove-1 well on the Shaeffer Ranch property appears to have missed the target and has been suspended while the company considers its next move. But the first well, Harrison-1 on the Oyster Creek project, is a discovery with a second well, Scott-2, now drilling ahead: first production is expected in the June quarter. 

More importantly, however, for Antares’ strategy - and Cruickshank’s health - are the results coming out of the Little Bear property, where the Garcitas Ranch-1 well encountered significant gas sands in the upper and lower targets, exceeding pre-drill expectations. In fact, as Cruickshank told delegates on Thursday, the Middle Wilcox sands alone exceeded the company’s expectations for the whole well. 

The joint venture partners here (Antares has 23.5 per cent) now want to get after this potential as quickly as possible and plan a 10 well programme for the field: this is the reason for Cruickshank’s sale pitch as Antares goes on the fundraising trail backed by the promise of strong cash flows from Garcitas Ranch. In the meantime the company has put its producing properties in Oklahoma on the market: 69 people have requested access to the data room and Cruickshank expects to finalise a US$5-10 million deal by mid-year. 

To view Antares' presentation click here.


http://www.ob-data.com/conference/feb07/antares.pdf


----------



## Agentm

i have been waiting and waiting for news on the secondaries.. as i always said, i invested in ADI for the chance of a secondary..

Now i know that SL has a great find, ARQ talks it up as much as they can, and currently the JVP's say ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.. and i wonder why..

I have seen presentations by the JVP's and for a while they even ranted about the chalks being a seperate operation..

i guess I am getting tired of having an investment in a gas find that is not being declared to the market!! the current sp is way off the true value of the secondary alone.. and we are all aware that the primary is being fraced and flow tested next week..

interest has wained off, and i guess i should remark that i am becoming tired of the fact that normally in the oil business you scream and shout when you make a major find.. yet we dont hear a squeak on the secondarys at all..

I guess when you figure out why, you get a little impatient, and i dont enjoy seeing the sp diving when its not even close to what it potentialy is worth just on the secondaries alone.. ADI gave projections of 2 shallow wells in last years annual report, then nothing further, its not a case that they were not planning for it, its clearly on the table, so other factors now that are stopping any news for breaking and preventing the forward planning of the shallows..

brokers give the shallows .56 to the sp, based on projetced figures,and all reports and presentations by adi and arq give their initial projections of the shallows as vastly understated.. 

patience is required, i feel that is self explanitory, but so is fair play to long term investors.. for me i want the secondaries to be declared, and the sooner the better..


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:
			
		

> i have been waiting and waiting for news on the secondaries.. as i always said, i invested in ADI for the chance of a secondary..
> 
> Now i know that SL has a great find, ARQ talks it up as much as they can, and currently the JVP's say ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.. and i wonder why..
> 
> I have seen presentations by the JVP's and for a while they even ranted about the chalks being a seperate operation..
> 
> i guess I am getting tired of having an investment in a gas find that is not being declared to the market!! the current sp is way off the true value of the secondary alone.. and we are all aware that the primary is being fraced and flow tested next week..
> 
> interest has wained off, and i guess i should remark that i am becoming tired of the fact that normally in the oil business you scream and shout when you make a major find.. yet we dont hear a squeak on the secondarys at all..
> 
> I guess when you figure out why, you get a little impatient, and i dont enjoy seeing the sp diving when its not even close to what it potentialy is worth just on the secondaries alone.. ADI gave projections of 2 shallow wells in last years annual report, then nothing further, its not a case that they were not planning for it, its clearly on the table, so other factors now that are stopping any news for breaking and preventing the forward planning of the shallows..
> 
> brokers give the shallows .56 to the sp, based on projetced figures,and all reports and presentations by adi and arq give their initial projections of the shallows as vastly understated..
> 
> patience is required, i feel that is self explanitory, but so is fair play to long term investors.. for me i want the secondaries to be declared, and the sooner the better..



You sound as though you are finally running out of patience and I can agree with you there. Both ADI and AUT are disappointing me on the lack of information but if there is nothing to report I guess we have to settle for that. Each day is a day closer and the testing results must come soon. What the results will show may or may not have the desired effect on the SP. AUT gave good reports on High Island this week and the SP fell. What a target price for ADI should be is becoming hard to calculate. My original target was $1 and as the news got better I increased to $2 which is my present target price. I will be reassessing after the next announcement.


----------



## Broadside

problem is if the JVPs let their prices slide too much on no news, the target prices in the short term will also slide, even if the news is the same...if that makes any sense whatsoever?! point is they need to stay strong prior to some good news or else we will just be reclaiming lost ground


----------



## INORE

I feel tomorrows announcement may be a little more upbeat to try and compensate for the ill-worded roadkill they announced last week.


----------



## Agentm

i cant say i am happy today knowing the secondary is not being made the focal point as it should be. I know the reasons why, but i cant say i agree with them at all.. for me as an investor i would have liked some return for the risk and feel any investor deserves the true potential of a discovery to be announced as well as it can be. the current cloak and dagger clandestine approach in texas is becoming tedious.

i dont relish a sp drop on the any negative sentiment on the primary and knowing the value of the secondaries is being kept very very low key.

no more fan fare of 2 wells in the shallows,, no more fan fare on the secondaries full stop..

it seems to me that this is a deliberate act, its accross all JVP's and if you understand the mentality of the texas oil business then you dont have to be a rocket scientist to gather why the secondaries are being kept under wraps..

i just like to know why adi has to tow the line when they may not stand to gain any benifit from it.. i dont blame adi for the position it is in, i understand it but absolutely dislike whats going on..


----------



## constable

Agentm said:
			
		

> it seems to me that this is a deliberate act, its accross all JVP's and if you understand the mentality of the texas oil business then you dont have to be a rocket scientist to gather why the secondaries are being kept under wraps..




Sorry to sound like miss Hanson, but could you "please explain" thanks agentm. Sorry if its a dumb question but I dont understand the mentality of the texas oil ind.


----------



## Agentm

acerage


----------



## Agentm

*Project: New Taiton

Prospect: New Taiton

Well: Ilse-1

Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%​*Ilse-1 is currently drilling ahead in 6.5” hole at a depth of 13,890 feet. During the week a 7​5/8 inch liner was successfully set to a depth of 13,230 feet (3,962 metres). Proposed total depth is 17,300 feet. 


so we have a way to go yet before the primary...

​


----------



## Agentm

*Sugarloaf-1 Well Testing Program 

*[font=Arial,Arial]Selected intervals of upper Hosston sands are currently being perforated in preparation for the fraccing program which is scheduled to commence in early March. 

Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests. 

[/font] 

and the fun begins on the primary...


----------



## nioka

Upper hosston perforated AND BEING PREPARED FOR FRACING means that the results of perforation better than lower sands. This one should stand up against todays falls


----------



## Agentm

you are spot on there nioka..

fundamentally you wouldnt frac unless there was a reason to, and flow is the only catalyst for fracing. 

first step obviously is successful.. the upper is way different to the lower, which is what was previousl reported. They had nice flows on the upper and plenty of activity there, the lower had very little. 

We are kept totally in dark as to what flow they have in the upper, but they have been kind enough to let on what they are up to next, if they didnt have what they needed then the fracing wouldnt be contemplated..

things are still 100% positive on SL.


----------



## HRL

Do you think it might end up being a good thing that ADI is taking a little longer than first thought to come good?  What I mean is that if ADI was to explode with SL/NT while the village idiots are in panic mode and selling furiously then the return would not be as good as when the market has recovered and the punters are back buying again.  Would hate to think ADI investors won't get the returns they deserve because some knucklehead has decided that the world dosen't need oil and gas anymore.


----------



## Agentm

panic selling lasts for minutes,, then a rebound, lasts a few hours, then its forgotten..


whoever sold at .70 must be kicking themselves.


----------



## tomcat

NT - They have successfully installed the 7 5/8" casing...looking forward to the day when they say we are now installing the 2 3/8" production tubing


----------



## resourceboom

nioka, agentm, I think you are getting ahead of yourselves slightly.

Whilst there may be flows after perforation I do not think this announcement implies that. They are always going to frac, even if they don't get flows after perforation.  And todays announcement said they are in the process of perforating....  Also last week they announced the no flow after perforating, so I would expect them to again notify whether there is flows after perforating the upper section (unless they won't as they are spooked by the reaction last week, and the general jitters of the market now).

However as you have mentioned before if they do get flows prior to fraccing this is great news, so they should announce !!


----------



## constable

resourceboom said:
			
		

> nioka, agentm, I think you are getting ahead of yourselves slightly.
> 
> Whilst there may be flows after perforation I do not think this announcement implies that. They are always going to frac, even if they don't get flows after perforation.  And todays announcement said they are in the process of perforating....  Also last week they announced the no flow after perforating, so I would expect them to again notify whether there is flows after perforating the upper section (unless they won't as they are spooked by the reaction last week, and the general jitters of the market now).
> 
> However as you have mentioned before if they do get flows prior to fraccing this is great news, so they should announce !!



Fair point rb. 
A gas show after perforation i would have thought should have been announced?
Not prepared to read into this to much though.
Still up to my nuts in eka and not particularly happy about todays proceedings although the volume was insignificant and it doesnt take much to move a low vol stock.


----------



## The Snorkler

Hello again, been awhile but Ive been following ASF keenly as Im still loaded to the eyeballs with ADI from float to now and hence SF is a subject dear to my heart. 

Im sitting in my office in London (about 400 m from Big Ben ha ha) discussing fraccing with the Karachaganak Completions Team Leader. So what useful insight can he provide?

1. First of all with fraccing there are no guarantees!
2. SF is an exploration well and hence special considerations apply
3. To design a frac job you need to understand the reservoir - this data would come from the logs and by drawing down the reservoir when the rig was onsite - the annoucement did mention "commercial flows" so it is possible sub-commerical flows did occur and combined with the log results they were able to design a frac job with a probability of success.
4. No-one is going to give you 2 million USD to spend on a job that is just guesswork so the team must have got enough data to plan their frac job adequately. This is therefore not just a sterillisation exercise or punt taken because of the potentially large reserves.

The CL also noted that he would not mobilise the equipment to site without perforating first-hand and possibly pumping some acid downhole to clear the drilling mud away and attempt to get the formation to flow. So not sure why they waited to perforate -- did sub-commercial flows already occur? I cant recall any from the announcements.

I dont believe the JV would waste their money at this stage of the program for anything other than a good chance of success. For this reason Im holding. Whether you choose to hold now or not depends on the risk tolerance of each trader because "with fraccing there are no guarantees". 

The secrecy and lack of information is quite disturbing but all in good time. 

Regards,
The Snorkler


----------



## The Snorkler

In fact the more I talk to this guy the less confident I become. He has seen plenty of examples of no flow before frac - spend money - no flow after frac   


But - cant...    quit...    now...

must...    see....  through.....


----------



## maverick11

The Snorkler said:
			
		

> In fact the more I talk to this guy the less confident I become. He has seen plenty of examples of no flow before frac - spend money - no flow after frac
> 
> 
> But - cant...    quit...    now...
> 
> must...    see....  through.....





If they had "flow" while drilling, one would only assume they could get flow after perforating the casing, right??  Isn't that one reason why they case the hole, to seal it?

I'm so sick of the spotlight being focused on the primary target, while the value of the secondaries are deliberately overlooked and played down.  Then any negative sentiment towards the primary sends the sp plummeting, when it is already worth a bundle on the secondaries alone.  As far as I'm concerned the real commercial potential is in the secondaries and the primary could potentially be the icing on the cake.  As a big ADI investor i'm not happy about this..


----------



## Agentm

hey snorkler..

the Karachaganak Completions Team Leader is basically spot on

with any fracing you have to have flow.. and they reported only what they absolutely could get away with.. the well should have been a closed well. any reported flows were only the ones deemed commercial.

I agree entirely that they would not waste 2 mill or more on a useless enterprise of fracing, i dont think any high quality crew would be keen on fracing a well with nothing down there.  We know how many meters they declared were poentially productive, indispersed are many meters of flows with lesser qualities (ie the lower hosston)

for me the reasoning to perforate pre the frac teams arrival was to assess the flow, i gather if the perforating didnt yield sufficient flow to warrant the high expense of fracing then they would have pulled the plug on the upper hosston and perforated the sligo and then the chalks and done so until they were ready for a fracing exercise.

they are announcing  things at SL as before, minimalist.. and if they say they have perforated, then the announcement means something, despite its seemingly insignificant appearance, i note that perforating has been done for an objective, the objective obviously brought the results they needed for a fracing program, so they bring in the team..  now you can theorise whether they have or have not got sufficient flow, but no one will know.. for me they must have the flow, porosity, permiability and have sufficient confidence to warrant a good shot at achieving sufficient ongoing commercial flow after fracing.. 

the TCO team would simply move on to other known commercial regions on the secondaries the moment things were not up to scratch in the hosston.. they dont waste time and money on wells, its either up to scratch or it isnt for fracing.. or move on and get the job done..

the announcement is a positive sign of the hosston still being a genuine commercial prospect.. and each day they continue is more reason to be more positive.. 

i still remain bullish on the primary

this is all IMHO..


----------



## fflintoff

ADI ´s E mail to Stereo last year during drilling appears to substantiate the foregoing :-

_Today 01:25 PM 
stereo21 
I sent an email off to Adelphi asking if further gas shows have been encountered from press release on Nov 10 to press release today. I just recevied the following reply from Adelphi's exec chairman:

"We only report gas shows that are of a material nature. This however does not mean that the well has not encountered further gas but it would make no sense to report less significant shows unless we considered these to be potentially of a commercial nature."_


----------



## Lucky_Country

Half decent finish too a fragile week 80c is a good firm position with a positive trend towards success at SL and / or NT.
Seems people didnt want too miss out over the weekend hopefully wont be long before we hear some positive new 2 weeks max


----------



## Agentm

every friday we say the same thing.. they never seem to reach the bottom.. i find it strange that they keep casing in.. you dont do that for nothing.. and its against the flow of info i thought i understood on the well..

this 2 weeks to TD is really becoming 2 months!!


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:
			
		

> every friday we say the same thing.. they never seem to reach the bottom.. i find it strange that they keep casing in.. you dont do that for nothing.. and its against the flow of info i thought i understood on the well..
> 
> this 2 weeks to TD is really becoming 2 months!!




They must be condident to keep casing, the gas flows better   I'm with you Agentm...seems to be taking forever but they must be well into the 14000ft by now...come on gas flows. Hopefully something this week on NT, I've given up expecting anything on SL, just waiting....waiting.


----------



## cicak_kupang

..... *looking further ahead, ADI should be really
on the boil in December 2007.*
More later.

happy days

yogi

This is from yogi-in-oz, posted:10/12/06.

What with the speed SL and Nt are moving at, Yogi may  be on the money here fellas........................haha


----------



## Lucky_Country

Holding up pretty well considering the overall market.
No-one wants too really part with there shares with news hopefully around the corner for both NT and SL.
Patience is being tested and therefore lack of sellers is a positive sign


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> Holding up pretty well considering the overall market.
> No-one wants too really part with there shares with news hopefully around the corner for both NT and SL.
> Patience is being tested and therefore lack of sellers is a positive sign



Lack of sellers is a definite sign. It is a sign that we have faith. If the test result is not good that faith will evaporate and the results will be an instant disaster. However they are only testing the deeps and the secondaries do justify the price so if there is a dramatic fall I will be a buyer not a seller.


----------



## Agentm

14375 shares traded  so no ones leaving in a hurry..

i think the sp can bounce back as quick as anything.

i will be saying this all week,, we must be close on NT surely? 

for most companies on the asx their position is known, but explorers have the advantage of gaining value in considerably small spaces of time.. i know the small cap index will be routed in the coming days, but for ADI i hope they can get some runs on the board and announce some good news..  i wonder how popular a small cap will be in todays doom and gloom, particularily if one came through with a major announcement? if one company bucks the trend will the market go for that stock more than any other? if it happened today it would stand out like a beacon on the boards wouldnt it...

the 100k didnt get bought up.. so money is obviously not around much..

i guess we get the old market turnaround tomorrow and next we will wonder what it was all about..


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:
			
		

> i will be saying this all week,, we must be close on NT surely?




Has to be close!! Bad news in the current environment could be a killer...good news though might see it rally real quick.



			
				Agentm said:
			
		

> the 100k didnt get bought up.. so money is obviously not around much..




Reckon there is a bit of money around...punters are just scarred after selling off and waiting for the bottom...some good news on a specie like this could really kick it sp as people chase the bright (green) light.
Fingers crossed for good news


----------



## resourceboom

Mmm, news coming soon.

1) NT should get news in weekly update.
2) SL primary fraccing starting.

I wonder how many cents are currently in the sp for NT, as other partners still seem to offer more SL upside.


----------



## Agentm

all previous weekly reports have been issued at 10 am.   i wonder if todays will follow suit..

the 100k sell order is getting closer to being absorbed..  

its been a quiet week.. it will be interesting to see how the NT well is getting on..


----------



## stereo21

From AZZ announcement.  just released.

Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Ilse-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%
As at 6th March 2007 the Ilse -1 well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,652 feet (4,816
metres) in a 6.5” hole inch hole.
During the week, elevated gas readings were encountered over a 70 feet interval at a depth
which broadly coincides with the upper of the two primary targets. The significance of these
elevated readings will not be known until wireline logs have been run and potentially production
tested.
Total planned depth for the well is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres


----------



## stereo21

very encouraging - looks like they are keeping it close to their chest until wireline/testing etc...


----------



## stereo21

...and from Sugarloaf (EKA).

Sugarloaf-1 Well Testing Program Preparations continue as planned for the upper Hosston fraccing program. Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests. 

Participants in the Sugarloaf-1 well are: Eureka Energy Ltd 1 12.5%Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al 2 41.5%Aurora Oil & Gas Limited 20.0%Adelphi Energy Ltd 20.0%Empyrean Energy plc 6.0%...


----------



## Agentm

they talk of potential production testing it already!!

must have had some kick!!!


----------



## tomcat

Good news...so about another week to TD and then the wire-line  logs should be run.


----------



## cicak_kupang

Looking ahead at NT, i'm wondering if we will have to wait for a work over rig for the perf/fracc prog, just like in SL,or if things are already in place/sourced so they dont have to wait around as in SL?  Interested to note that the 70 ft of gas shows was not released to the market at time of show, not price sensitive, i think not, more likely acerage sensitive!!!  All been played down again, wow, id find that hard to believe....


----------



## Broadside

cicak_kupang said:
			
		

> Looking ahead at NT, i'm wondering if we will have to wait for a work over rig for the perf/fracc prog, just like in SL,or if things are already in place/sourced so they dont have to wait around as in SL?  Interested to note that the 70 ft of gas shows was not released to the market at time of show, not price sensitive, i think not, more likely acerage sensitive!!!  All been played down again, wow, id find that hard to believe....




they have proved an apt pupil of TCO on how to manage their announcements


----------



## maverick11

No gas ppm or gas show announcements, just the bare minimum...

I would have thought being a different joint venture they would have been more liberal with their announcements.  Seems ADI are running the show  :


----------



## Agentm

same state (Texas) .........same rules... 

no letting the neighbours know what you have also means the shareholders dont get anything,, no pressures, depths, no details what so ever..

I bet the private interests are getting full details.. much as the private interests in the SL are through couchy.. Because the announcements have to be public knowlege the australian investor is kept totally in the dark. 

i doubt you could convince any operator that you wanted to be on board a texas well without a guarantee that nothing about the well would go public..

GDN is an example of different rules to a different state and different conditions.. you get a massive amount of info and you cant complain (except for the one promise to disclose wirelines which never happened)

I see the term elevated gas readings used often in wells requiring non disclosure.. it appears to be a well used term.. regardless of the term used, the potential for production testing being mentioned even before wireline is completed shows me that the readings are being taken seriously. 

for me its heartening news.. if they announced it outside the mid weekly report then the market would have interpreted it as a significant find, and that would have been irresponsible, i think doing it mid weekly and putting in an unessesary remark over production testing is indicating a lot of confidence. 


all imho and dyor


----------



## bazollie

I know this is the Million Dollar Question , but is there any theories on the time frame of determining if there is a commercial flow of gas in the Primaries of SL??


----------



## EEE

In ADI's announcement on 29/01, they said a plan had been accepted to test the primary Hosston formation target (no word of secondaries) and that it would start in two weeks. 

This takes us to a start date of 12/02 (possibly before) and with testing expected to take up to 2 months, I would imagine everything should be done and dusted on the primary by 12/04/07

And then onto the secondaries

Anyone please correct me if I'm wrong


----------



## Agentm

very interesting... commercial flow??

i understand the news we have is limited. There was a lot of leaked wirelines that have been passed around the globe, I have seen plenty of opinion on them.. My impression is that the well was always to be a closed well, no news until after the wirelines and possible fracing and flow testing. That policy remains on the secondaries, where no information has been passed onto the market at all, we are told that none will be released until after the fracing of the primary.

So with little data the average investor already in the share cannot guage the actual value of the share currently due to the closed well policy. its very possible people selling today are not aware of the successes in the secondaries, and the information being held back still today is potentially keeping the sp at a very low value. 

only the bearest minimum of news that just passes the ASX reporting requirements has been released. For the JVP's its a constant battle of pleasing the operator, and not impeaching the ASX rules and regulations.

so back to commercial flow..

for all we know the chalks had commercial flow, even without fracing, couchy reported the mud was flowing back up the well,, that is really crazy pressure.. they had a very powerful rig and very powerful pumps, so they handled it easy.. perhaps other rigs may have had a blowout?? but clever reporting has limited the ability to determin anything..  i consider the chalks to have had commercial flow without fracing on the basis of couchys remarks..

for the lower hosston, they have declared in the last weeks they didnt see flow that warranted immediate fracing..

they have perforated the upper. and yesterday announced the fracing was to commence. the question of whether the upper had commercial flow or not is not technically important. 90% of wells are fraced in texas.. the geology is such that you dont just drill and plug into a pipeline. the gas is trapped in geology that usually doesnt give immediate commercial flow. but many many wells flow commercially after fracing.

I doubt they had commercial flow at the incredible depth they are at. the pressures and temperatures are extreme. I have seen on other forums that some JVP's have declared to some people that the geology they were after, what they modelled their well to be, came up exactly as expected. Sl isnt a guess, its not your usual well, its a world class well with 15 years of planning before it commenced. so the TCO operator is obviously pleased with all the progress, the seamless drilling, and the reports i see that the drilling models are exactly as expected means we have every right to be very confident in viewing the primary as a legitimate candidate for being commercially successful.

when the wirelined, they took samples, so they can lab test and analyse the soil and its structure porosity and permaibility. They can model this too,, when a frac team arrives at a well your at the serious end of business, they are expensive, and an operator is not blowing millions on a useless exercise. My view is that the primary is not at all capable of producing commercial flow as is and that goes for 90% of wells in texas... my view is that the flow they had, the geology and the characteristics of the soil is such that fracing is very probably going to produce exactly the commercial flow they were after. 

if they didnt get the exact conditions they wanted, and for the massive size and expense of the drilling 50 wells deep into a play like thgis, you dont frac unless the conditions for total success of the entire field is potentially the outcome.. 

so the answer to million dollar question, imho is that they will not have commercial flow in the upper hosston until after fracing.. and as they frac each zone, they will know immediately after doing the first zone whether they will move onto the second or third or forth zones etc etc... each zone will be tested and i think operation and continuation may be assessed day by day....

IMHO i think each day the fracing continues indicates a stronger and stronger case for commercial success on the primary.. any failure on fracing early in the program would in my view create grounds for reassessing and cost cutting. they wouldnt keep throwing good money after bad and halt the operation.. and I would say they would move up the well and abandon the primary and quickly move to all the other zones of interest.. 

so perhaps early news is bad news, and no news is good news...

again all IMHO  and dyor..


----------



## bazollie

G'day AgentM , I like your HO & look forward to the coming weeks! It is shaping up to be a very interesting period going forward.


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:
			
		

> very interesting... commercial flow??
> 
> i understand the news we have is limited. There was a lot of leaked wirelines that have been passed around the globe, I have seen plenty of opinion on them.. My impression is that the well was always to be a closed well, no news until after the wirelines and possible fracing and flow testing. That policy remains on the secondaries, where no information has been passed onto the market at all, we are told that none will be released until after the fracing of the primary.
> 
> So with little data the average investor already in the share cannot guage the actual value of the share currently due to the closed well policy. its very possible people selling today are not aware of the successes in the secondaries, and the information being held back still today is potentially keeping the sp at a very low value.
> 
> only the bearest minimum of news that just passes the ASX reporting requirements has been released. For the JVP's its a constant battle of pleasing the operator, and not impeaching the ASX rules and regulations.
> 
> so back to commercial flow..
> 
> for all we know the chalks had commercial flow, even without fracing, couchy reported the mud was flowing back up the well,, that is really crazy pressure.. they had a very powerful rig and very powerful pumps, so they handled it easy.. perhaps other rigs may have had a blowout?? but clever reporting has limited the ability to determin anything..  i consider the chalks to have had commercial flow without fracing on the basis of couchys remarks..
> 
> for the lower hosston, they have declared in the last weeks they didnt see flow that warranted immediate fracing..
> 
> they have perforated the upper. and yesterday announced the fracing was to commence. the question of whether the upper had commercial flow or not is not technically important. 90% of wells are fraced in texas.. the geology is such that you dont just drill and plug into a pipeline. the gas is trapped in geology that usually doesnt give immediate commercial flow. but many many wells flow commercially after fracing.
> 
> I doubt they had commercial flow at the incredible depth they are at. the pressures and temperatures are extreme. I have seen on other forums that some JVP's have declared to some people that the geology they were after, what they modelled their well to be, came up exactly as expected. Sl isnt a guess, its not your usual well, its a world class well with 15 years of planning before it commenced. so the TCO operator is obviously pleased with all the progress, the seamless drilling, and the reports i see that the drilling models are exactly as expected means we have every right to be very confident in viewing the primary as a legitimate candidate for being commercially successful.
> 
> when the wirelined, they took samples, so they can lab test and analyse the soil and its structure porosity and permaibility. They can model this too,, when a frac team arrives at a well your at the serious end of business, they are expensive, and an operator is not blowing millions on a useless exercise. My view is that the primary is not at all capable of producing commercial flow as is and that goes for 90% of wells in texas... my view is that the flow they had, the geology and the characteristics of the soil is such that fracing is very probably going to produce exactly the commercial flow they were after.
> 
> if they didnt get the exact conditions they wanted, and for the massive size and expense of the drilling 50 wells deep into a play like thgis, you dont frac unless the conditions for total success of the entire field is potentially the outcome..
> 
> so the answer to million dollar question, imho is that they will not have commercial flow in the upper hosston until after fracing.. and as they frac each zone, they will know immediately after doing the first zone whether they will move onto the second or third or forth zones etc etc... each zone will be tested and i think operation and continuation may be assessed day by day....
> 
> IMHO i think each day the fracing continues indicates a stronger and stronger case for commercial success on the primary.. any failure on fracing early in the program would in my view create grounds for reassessing and cost cutting. they wouldnt keep throwing good money after bad and halt the operation.. and I would say they would move up the well and abandon the primary and quickly move to all the other zones of interest..
> 
> so perhaps early news is bad news, and no news is good news...
> 
> again all IMHO  and dyor..




Just read this - Good post Agent M 

I hope you dont mind but I copied it onto ADVFN.

Cheers Tarzan


----------



## Agentm

one thing is certain, the wait is over.  the race is about to start..

we are in the phase where the horses are in the starting barrier and the red light is flashing.. 

i find little downside for the sp.. for the sellers it must be a tough decision to jump this close to the well being fraced and production tested.. 

good luck to all holders.. but somehow i feel luck isnt a factor here, its more a case of their being good conditions to suit the condtions for commercial flow..

bear in mind commercial flow means continious flow..   you always have background gas,, but fracing creates massive fissures and cracks into the surrounding geology stretching out from the hole,, that increases the volume dramatically, and using specialised equipment the fracing operation on any well will improve the flow, its just a case of the flow being sufficient to warrant it being commercial..  you dont abandon a well because of not having continious flow, you frac the well if the geology and the conditions suit the possibilty of getting commercial or continious flow from the fracing..


----------



## surfingman

Agentm said:
			
		

> one thing is certain, the wait is over.  the race is about to start..
> 
> we are in the phase where the horses are in the starting barrier and the red light is flashing..
> 
> i find little downside for the sp.. for the sellers it must be a tough decision to jump this close to the well being fraced and production tested..
> 
> good luck to all holders.. but somehow i feel luck isnt a factor here, its more a case of their being good conditions to suit the condtions for commercial flow..
> 
> bear in mind commercial flow means continious flow..   you always have background gas,, but fracing creates massive fissures and cracks into the surrounding geology stretching out from the hole,, that increases the volume dramatically, and using specialised equipment the fracing operation on any well will improve the flow, its just a case of the flow being sufficient to warrant it being commercial..  you dont abandon a well because of not having continuous flow, you frac the well if the geology and the conditions suit the possibility of getting commercial or continuous flow from the fracing..





Agentm have you ever thought about sales and marketing? Just joking seriously, I enjoy reading your posts and they help to me stay positive on ADI we all know there's going to be a substantial move in SP in coming weeks.


----------



## sam76

Agentm said:
			
		

> bear in mind commercial flow means continious flow..   you always have background gas,, but fracing creates massive fissures and cracks into the surrounding geology stretching out from the hole,, that increases the volume dramatically, and using specialised equipment the fracing operation on any well will improve the flow, its just a case of the flow being sufficient to warrant it being commercial..  you dont abandon a well because of not having continious flow, you frac the well if the geology and the conditions suit the possibilty of getting commercial or continious flow from the fracing..




So that's what fraccing means.

I've been trying for ages to find a definition that's written for the layman.

Cheers!


----------



## Broadside

I assume "fraccing" is derived from fracturing, that is fracturing the rock so that gas can migrate through it.

Great post again AgentM.


----------



## nioka

surfingman said:
			
		

> Agentm have you ever thought about sales and marketing?



Good idea and ADI could do with a PR man. If anyone deserves to profit from this one it is Agentm.


----------



## Agentm

sorry for the long posts,, but importantly the nature of the business in texas is greatly prohibiting the information flow.

I dont have the a crystal ball on this share, but i feel the reasons for fracing are being done with sound reasoning.. the overall picture is to successfully extract gas commercially. you dont guess as much as you assess then try..

there is deafening silence on this well, absolutely nothing is being passed on as the truth is no one can give you the answer on commercial success. 

my frustration is seing a successful secondary be kept in the dark, after the length of time i have sat and accumulated, i would have been happier if they went full steam after the secondary. but thats investing!!

the primary is certainly exciting, and each day they continue on the program gives me more confidence of their reasoning for possible commercial flow to become a reality.

to leave the share is not an option for large holders, so my belief is that the seriousness of the possibility of success is there to see the share very very tightly held..


----------



## INORE

Agent M, just out of curiousity, is there any chance of you divulging how many shares in ADI you hold and what your average price is?


----------



## nioka

INORE said:
			
		

> Agent M, just out of curiousity, is there any chance of you divulging how many shares in ADI you hold and what your average price is?



Can I suggest the question is out of order. Does it matter? If he holds only one share it doesn't change the value of his input.


----------



## INORE

nioka said:
			
		

> Can I suggest the question is out of order. Does it matter? If he holds only one share it doesn't change the value of his input.




You dont reckon......Of course it does.....


----------



## constable

INORE said:
			
		

> You dont reckon......Of course it does.....



Im with nioka here i thought the question crossed the boundaries a little. If you really want to know his position for your own assesment maybe you should pm agentm.


----------



## INORE

constable said:
			
		

> Im with nioka here i thought the question crossed the boundaries a little. If you really want to know his position for your own assesment maybe you should pm agentm.




Fair enough, apologies agent M


----------



## Sean K

No one needs to divulge what they own. All discussions here would be better if no one mentioned buying or selling or how many, as it's totally unverifiable. Pointless really, and doesn't value add to the analysis of a stock one bit.


----------



## Agentm

hey all..  I am a holder and have been over a considerable time, i accumulate shares and rarely sell (only on a takeover or when management change).. 

i follow the philosophy that any company that dumps its management must not have anything to offer the management, so the size of the managements holdings and whether they purchased (as did the adi directors) or got it free (as per most of the jvp's and a million other companies) means a lot to me when i invest..

some forums are used by people to manipulate the sp,, i find in some forums when i post i get real nasty responses.. i tend to post here as most are objective and most understand i am no threat to anyone..

there are times i get excited and make some hyped up remarks.. but i try to look at the picture objectively from time to time and post thoughts,,

if i can i always try to remember to write  all IMHO and DYOR.. it makes people understand its personal comment and reflections and thoughts.. hard facts  etc are asx announcements, with this cryptic well we have littel info to work of, so i try and understand it as best i can.. my holdings are important to me, and yes if the sp falls i suffer a massive loss,, but loss is only made if i sold.. i stay for the secondaries regardless of the primary.. and if the primary turns out good then i stay because the tax man gets me!!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

AgentM your posts info and point of view have been invaluable


----------



## HRL

Agreed.  AgentM & Maverick have provided excellent insight into this company so far and it's very much appreciated by many I'm sure, particularly those of us unfamiliar with the oil & gas business.

I also think that people's holdings are largely irrelevant here.  Kennas for example is always a good read because he follows the market closely and clearly has a lot of knowledge yet I think it's unlikely he owns stock in every company he comments on (??).

Congratulations to anyone who held through the last 10 days and/or was able to pickup ADI at such good levels... I didn't expect to see the 70's again so was happy to sneak a few more into my pocket.


----------



## INORE

HRL said:
			
		

> Congratulations to anyone who held through the last 10 days and/or was able to pickup ADI at such good levels... I didn't expect to see the 70's again so was happy to sneak a few more into my pocket.




U SHOULDNT MENTION BUYING OR SELLING as per the moderators comment:

'All discussions here would be better if no one mentioned buying or selling or how many, as it's totally unverifiable.'


Anyway, it's good to see the support for agent M's comments, i never disagreed with 'em, i even apologised to him for popping the quantity question....so lets get on with it...


----------



## Sean K

INORE said:
			
		

> U SHOULDNT MENTION BUYING OR SELLING as per the moderators comment:
> 
> 'All discussions here would be better if no one mentioned buying or selling or how many, as it's totally unverifiable.'



Joe doesn't mind as long as there's some analysis included as to why a stock was bought or sold. Makes posts more valuable and reduces ramping.


----------



## Agentm

another week and all we have is fracing (SL) and elevated readings (NT)..

a lot better than nothing at all!!  and in terms of exciting, its certainly getting me a touch excited..

I heard the other day againthat geology is a prime factor in fracing, and they just abandon if the geology doesnt come up to scratch in taxas.. they dont flog a dead horse. It reconfirmed to me what i have been hearing all along, and the conditions are very very good in Sl for fracing to be successful. 

I still believe that each day we hear nothing is another day further in fracing and another day of things going as planned. they have to announce if they are stopping, so early news may not bode well and the longer before the news breaks, the better it is, and i wait for positive  things like good continious flow and pressures and rates etc.. godd luck to all holders

i hope all have a nice weekend and enjoy the extra day if your in victoria..


all dyor and imho


----------



## surfingman

I haven't had any experience with companies in a position such as ADI, that is:

2 potentially producing gas wells in Texas with a 20% and 25% ownership.

With a possible low amount found in each well how much would the share price increase?

With a possible high amount found in 1 or 2 wells how much would share price increase? 

I know this is the million dollar question but has anyone tried to work this out with some round figures.

I remember reading on this thread something about a $4 share price is this possible within 2007?


----------



## bazollie

Announcement from ADI re Primary Fraccing just now doesn't look promising ??

Any other views out there ?


----------



## chops_a_must

bazollie said:
			
		

> Announcement from ADI re Primary Fraccing just now doesn't look promising ??
> 
> Any other views out there ?



Duster!

Get out now!


----------



## surfingman

Not looking good here.... Except for the testing of the 14,000 ft level, looks like it could go either way on this well, im holding...


----------



## bazollie

There doesn't appear to be too much "dumping" of the stock. If you go back over the last week through this thread, you will see some info which is relative to the secondaries which looks good. Add to this NT results which are pending. This could be an opportunity to accumulate. I won't be dumping any at this point.


----------



## maverick11

While it's disappointing about hosston, the secondaries are where the huge value and potential are.  This has been the case for some time now, yet the JVP have played it down while they buy more land and place focus on the hosston.  Good buying opportunity imo


----------



## Rob_ee

bazollie said:
			
		

> There doesn't appear to be too much "dumping" of the stock. If you go back over the last week through this thread, you will see some info which is relative to the secondaries which looks good. Add to this NT results which are pending. This could be an opportunity to accumulate. I won't be dumping any at this point.




Down 25% now to 61c ....does ACCUMULATE mean buy more to what you already have or you better jump in now while it's so cheap?

I am still a 2 month newbie to the market and am constantly confronted with the "better top them up" now scenario while it's so cheap.

Is this the way to go?

Rob


----------



## maverick11

Rob_ee said:
			
		

> Down 25% now to 61c ....does ACCUMULATE mean buy more to what you already have or you better jump in now while it's so cheap?
> 
> I am still a 2 month newbie to the market and am constantly confronted with the "better top them up" now scenario while it's so cheap.
> 
> Is this the way to go?
> 
> Rob




IMO, sugarloafs value is in the secondary targets which they will be testing next.  The primary target would have been the icing on the cake but from todays ann's that's no longer the case.  Yet, the secondaries value and also the new taiton add significant upside to current share price, imo.


----------



## nioka

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Duster!
> 
> Get out now!



Too late now. I did say earlier that when the news came it would be too late to change. However all is not lost, the secondries were always valued at $1 in a lot of opinions and that has not changed, in fact it is more likely to be fast tracked now that the primary is "out of the way". In my case I traded half my ADI for double the number of AUT when the prices were better and AUT has not fallen to the same extent, probably because of success at High Island. New Taiton could be the icing for ADI yet. I'm holding both until the final verdict on the current drilling programs.


----------



## Agentm

just got back from country,, interesting day.. primary is off.. now for the secondary at last!!

like anyone, i guess, i would have loved the primary to have come off. 


theres no way i am selling today..  as expected, good news would be late, bad news early..  a few tipped off early, but 1.2 million shares traded???  
i thought the sp would have tanked.. but  only .63 ???  secondaries must have good support.. 

i am interested on NT news a lot more in the near term,, no near term plan on the secondaries by the looks.. so low priority.. must be reasons for that still..


----------



## Dukey

Tumbling today - now 53.5
Market doesn't like NT update either. Possibly looking to deepen the well depending on logging results. What does that imply??... anyone. You could take it as positive - meaning - they think there is more gas a bit further down. OR negative - ie. They don't have enough from what they've drilled so far...  Which one is it??


----------



## Dukey

Continuing from last post  ......
Or you could ask of NT - why did they stop 300m short of the original target depth... was it because they already got what they wanted ?? or was it because they didn't think it was worth drilling??   
For NT - I tend to think (and hope) its the first answer... but wish I knew for sure... any ideas folks?  
Holding on ...


----------



## maverick11

We were wondering the same thing.  It's very ambiguous, and no details about the gas shows.  It's easy to get frustrated with this mob's crappy reporting techniques. 

I too am holding


----------



## Agentm

Ok.. i see adi is the share to dump, and the reaction to the share after the fracing couldnt achieve commercial flow is all but predictable.

The sp has tanked, and is a great buying opportunity, as much as the sp is falling there are always buyer prepared to absorb the shares, so many see great value in the share, perhaps the ones who have better understandings??

NT is not putting out any bad news, we are aware of the 70 feet of elevated gas shows, they are now going to investigate the well with some wirelines, lets hope that next week we hear some great news. 

SL, the frac crew is gone, they have plugged the lower hosston and they now set up a fracing program for the upper, with different geology and different type of fracing operations they will devise a program for it and get on to it as quick as they can.

remember that the secondaries are the best potential gas shows, which was clearly stated in the last report, they have a continued bullish sentiment on the secondaries. 

i still see the sp as great value, in a few months the whole picture on all operations will be very evident, adi sp wont be anything like todays prices once the secondaries are revealed. adi have been open about their expectations on the secondaries throughout, and kept a very tight lip on the primary so as to not generate false hopes. the markets reaction today to the share is little comfort to all holders, but i remain with my plan i always held, to see both nt and Sl to the end then reevaluate..


----------



## resourceboom

Dukey said:
			
		

> Continuing from last post  ......
> Or you could ask of NT - why did they stop 300m short of the original target depth... was it because they already got what they wanted ?? or was it because they didn't think it was worth drilling??
> For NT - I tend to think (and hope) its the first answer... but wish I knew for sure... any ideas folks?
> Holding on ...




At a guess, I'd think the lower section was not worth drilling. If its any consolation I thought this was a secondary target. The primary target was where they had the elevated readings!!


----------



## Agentm

re NT .... there is no cause for alarm, they are wirelining the well to see whats down there, they have 70 feet of elevated readings and shows, they obviously need to do what they are doing to get understandings of what they are getting indications of at the surface..


SL is as they announced..



> The most significant gas indications in the well were obtained in Cretaceous carbonates above 14,000 feet, where gas shows during drilling and wire-line log interpretation suggest the presence of potential gas pay. The timing for testing of these indications will be advised as soon as possible.




now adi doesnt need to say that, they only need to say they are testing the secondaries, and nothing else,, why are they saying what they are? they are handing you a huge hint that they feel the secondaries have what it takes as a gas find. The lower regions, never had a bullish hint about it, but the secondaries have it written all overit, pull up any report about the secondaries, any presentation, any quarterly, and its usually mentioned in a very bullish way.

couchy was talking stampeding elephants on the secondary, and now they finally will be fraced and flow tested once they get the processes in place, the crews, the equipment and the planning will be done as methodically as the other aspects of the well.. seamless and efficient.

i have concerns just as any other holder, but i dont forsee doom and gloom, i think adi has many plans for the future, and i believe many prospects were held off on knowing the outcome of the primary, i imagine many things will now be fast tracked, and the exciting prospects adi that have been mentioned in quarterlies and even in ARQ presentations will presented to the market in the near future. 

buying prices today are great value and very very tempting


----------



## INORE

Agree Agent M...I think the Sp has now reached a very attractive price.  I allways compare the SP's between ADI and AZZ...normally there is little between them and ADI is more often than not trading at a higher SP.  I beleive even a modest commercial gas flow on either Sugarloaf or New Taiton would escalate the SP.  AZZ have been in oil and gas a long time (previuosly in Turkey under Amity) and have a good grasp of the business.  I am very happy that ADI is in a JV with AZZ.


----------



## Agentm

i know people speak highly of AZZ.. i think they have the structure of a good business, and the way they do things today is creating success on the drill.

ADI was structured primarily as a high risk high return company.  until NT all wells had a very high risk profile, the onlyone that fell lower again in risk profile was the secondaries at SL, when they became evident to the JVP's they all bought into them big time, it was following a known play near by and from all accounts they struck it big!!

My view on NT is that they have some nice shows to follow up on. I have spoken to adi about the well and got the understandings i needed as the announcement appeared to suggest they had nothing in the lower primary, i cant comment too much on their reply to me, but i think the reasoning for them to wireline is very very sound, i think things may not be entirely as people percieve, and i am speculating the wireline results may be quite unexpected to the market in the positive slant. i think the NT well is promising and showing all the signs of potentially being tested perhaps and flow tested, but the wirelines are ultimately the precursor to making that call.

SL secondaries is being speculated upon by many as being potentially commercial. ARQ has stated this as well..  I tend to believe the hype on this one and from this point on, any reports, be it the actual wireline logs themselves being declared on the market as promised after the testing of the primary, or some positive news on the frac crew and timing, we will see significant effects on the sp..


----------



## Lucky_Country

http://www.couchoil.com/daily1.asp


----------



## Agentm

so gawler resources, a uranium expolerer, nothing to do with the oil and gas game who's directorship includes this guy

Matthew Sheldrick is a Chartered Accountant and spent 10 years in the securities industry, advising domestic and international institutional clients on Australian resource equities. He was most recently CEO of ASX listed Eureka Energy Ltd. 

they buy into AUT some 14,000,000 shares..

interesting!!!

do they know something???


----------



## kevro

Hi Agent M, I believe that is to do with the proposed sale of AUT's share of the High Island gas project to Gawler Resources. Ref ann 23/02/07. I may be wrong


----------



## nioka

kevro said:
			
		

> Hi Agent M, I believe that is to do with the proposed sale of AUT's share of the High Island gas project to Gawler Resources. Ref ann 23/02/07. I may be wrong



Read through the AUT announcements for an explanation of the relationship between AUT and Gawler


----------



## Agentm

ok, i get it now,, 

Gawler has an EKA director, and they do a deal with AUT..

cheers

plenty of selling today, but with the wirelines for NT about to announced, i hope its not a leak and people are bailing on the news...!!

AZZ has not seen a sell off so it maybe other reasons for the bailout..

i still anticipate good news on NT, in light of lower risk profile..

if NT gioves out bad news i imagine the sp will get another good drop...


----------



## Sniffer

Agentm said:
			
		

> so gawler resources, a uranium expolerer, nothing to do with the oil and gas game who's directorship includes this guy
> 
> Matthew Sheldrick is a Chartered Accountant and spent 10 years in the securities industry, advising domestic and international institutional clients on Australian resource equities. He was most recently CEO of ASX listed Eureka Energy Ltd.
> 
> they buy into AUT some 14,000,000 shares..
> 
> interesting!!!
> 
> do they know something???




You bet they do. 
My post from 10/02/07



			
				Sniffer said:
			
		

> I lot of uranium was mined in that area of the US during the 70s and 80s.  Any chance they found more that oil and gas in that hole?


----------



## INORE

Lucky_Country said:
			
		

> http://www.couchoil.com/daily1.asp




Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success

We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.

Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

 The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.

 The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.

 The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’

 The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.

 This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’




IJH
Did couch oil used to be in the JV?  Why did they report on this hole?


----------



## nioka

Sniffer said:
			
		

> You bet they do.
> My post from 10/02/07



I doubt if it has anything to do with Uranium. More to do with spreading the cost and the risk. One of the reasons I have come out of this so far is by spreading the risk and trading back and forth between AUT and ADI depending on changes in the ratio of price between the two. My current ratio is 2 Aut to 1 ADI. I am considering again reversing this for the third time. I still think Sugarloaf will produce and there will be other wells on the same field which will be financially beneficial.


----------



## Lucky_Country

INORE said:
			
		

> Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
> 
> We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
> 
> Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.
> 
> The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.
> 
> The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.
> 
> The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’
> 
> The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.
> 
> This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IJH
> Did couch oil used to be in the JV?  Why did they report on this hole?



My understanding is Charles Couch is included as a private partner in TCO percentage of SL


----------



## Agentm

couchy is a private investor,he posted all his well info on his website, after that infamous post he was told by TCO to shut it down..

couchy investors then got their info via emails.

yes the information sounded brilliant, and to my knowlege there is nothing in the couch report that isnt correct, the JVP's have not confirmed what couchy posted, but all reports from all jvp's is that the secondaries are brilliant.

remember 3 km from SL there is a oil and gas play in the chalks, and its been said the SL intercept was the the same play by EKA on a report last year to the ASX.. 

so I see it as an opposition player announcing oil and gas discovery on the same play, couchy announcing the same thing, then being censured, and the JVP's saying absolutely nothing about the oil.. but adi announcing 2 wells instead and arq shooting its mouth off about it being commercial.. 

in light of that i have little reason to sell, regardless of the oil being there i have invested in the belief its a major discovery in the making.. bring on the frac testing..


----------



## Kauri

Agentm said:
			
		

> couchy is a private investor,he posted all his well info on his website, after that infamous post he was told by TCO to shut it down..
> 
> couchy investors then got their info via emails.
> 
> yes the information sounded brilliant, and to my knowlege there is nothing in the couch report that isnt correct, the JVP's have not confirmed what couchy posted, but all reports from all jvp's is that the secondaries are brilliant.
> 
> remember 3 km from SL there is a oil and gas play in the chalks, and its been said the SL intercept was the the same play by EKA on a report last year to the ASX..
> 
> so I see it as an opposition player announcing oil and gas discovery on the same play, couchy announcing the same thing, then being censured, and the JVP's saying absolutely nothing about the oil.. but adi announcing 2 wells instead and arq shooting its mouth off about it being commercial..
> 
> in light of that i have little reason to sell, regardless of the oil being there i have invested in the belief its a major discovery in the making.. bring on the frac testing..





 Is the report really from Sept 29 last year??


----------



## Agentm

couch reported weekly, so it was posted then, i saw it then a short time later the jvp's went nuts and tco went nuts and couchy was told to pull his head in..

couchy has never had a quality well on his books, so he was unable to contain himself when he saw the wirelines..

no further news after that  from him..

wont be long before the wirelines from NT come through..

good luck to all holders there!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

All seems too be dragging on a fair bit now with no real insight too whats really going on.
Just want too know 1 way or the other but am still fairly optomistic just getting tired of all the secrecy and cryptic clues after all it is my money in the balance


----------



## megla

I'm with you Lucky_Country, i got in at 86... hmm think I might have done my dough for now... now I hold this one long term. Next time, I must remember to sell when stocks go down..


----------



## Lucky_Country

megla said:
			
		

> I'm with you Lucky_Country, i got in at 86... hmm think I might have done my dough for now... now I hold this one long term. Next time, I must remember to sell when stocks go down..



I still think we will get some positive results soon but in what time frame im not sure. Just dont like the uncertainty but when investing in oil and gas it is too be expected. Hopefully its all a good sign the longer it takes and when we do get the results they are complete and thorough.


----------



## megla

Based on the potential, is this now an undervalued stock? If so, I might dive in a bit deeper...


----------



## Agentm

the secondaries are considered as being highly prospective and there are very strong indications they can be considered as being potentially commercial by most holders, you have to understand your own risk profile to make decisions to top up.

adi are due to announce the wirelines at NT, so we will find out how prospective the gas shows they had were.. they have announced the shows up the well may have potential already.

the rig has been less than reliable and todate we have seen massive delays, the wireline results should have been out by now as they were done last week.

i would prefer if wireline news was to be announced today..


----------



## megla

I like to take chances


----------



## HRL

Something positive at last.  NT has reached provisional TD and is flowing gas continuously... so much that the drill string can't be pulled yet.  That can't be bad?  I know this is only a small well but anything is good for ADI's sp given the recent slump.  Holding nicely around 48-50c for last couple of days though.  If this is as low as it goes then I'm not too unhappy... NT and the SL secondaries should pull this one back to respectability (hopefully!).


----------



## nioka

At least NT is flowing too much gas for the wirelogging to take place. That must be a positive.


----------



## nioka

megla said:
			
		

> I like to take chances



So do I,but only when the odds are well and truly in my favour. Never with borrowed money, which I suspect a few investors in ADI have done. Only after doing all the research I can. Remember if the odds are 10 to 1 then there is probably 9 chances of failure if it is a straight gamble.


----------



## Lucky_Country

NT too much gas pressure too even WL that must be a real positive .
SL well we need some info on when the testing of the secondaries will be started


----------



## Agentm

i fail to see any downside to the current NT problem, i think the latest action as a continuation of the reason for them stopping the drill short.


----------



## blues

Excuse my ignorance but why did they stop the drill short of TD?
Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

hey blues, its not ignorance.. its really a case of limited info..

i would say with the massive mud weights they had that they couldnt get any idea about what it was they were seeing, so they decided to stop short, and wireline then after that recommence drilling. i would say all the shows and elevated readings were difficult to understand, with mud weights obviously at their max,  and it sounds like the gas pressure problem, which they had, has now increased and esculated to the current situation, and now the drill string is becoming a problem with the gas that is circulating around the well..

they are loking for a solution to make it safe on the deck, you cant have uncontrolable gas flowing up the well..   

we need maverick to input something about now!!

still having trouble seeing the downside here


----------



## maverick11

Sounds like they are having to battle massive gas pressures and flow already - and they haven’t even frac’d yet!….so I see this as very good news indeed.

To establish equilibrium means they have to increase the density and pressure of the drill mud to stop the gas from entering the bore hole (an overbalanced well).  If gas enters the borehole they can get kicks and blowouts which is very dangerous.  The problem with increasing the mud pressure & density is this could also damage the borehole mainly by invasion, which means the drill mud enters the formation.  This is why they like to line the bore hole…

While they say they may need to line the hole, they may mean a section or the whole thing – and it’s more out of safety for the rig and the well hole.  I’m not entirely sure how they log with the casing in place, but normally the techniques they use are radiofrequency and nuclear magnetic resonance, etc so a liner would be of little consequence imo.  As for gas shows, they would already have a good clue from mud logs during drilling.  Often the drill bits also have a log device built in to them.

I'm no expert so this is all IMO but I hope it helps explain ("decode") todays news.  I would think the JVP are weighing their options and with their experienced management team, I'm relaxed they will make the right move.


----------



## Agentm

i think what your saying maverick makes sense to me..

the bit i cant understand is how an insignificant announcement of elevated gas readings can suddenly become a well that they have lost control of.

I understand the next processes taking place now are going to get them the control back, and granted they are professional enough to achieve that, but AZZ and ADI must understand the confusion they bring when one day they have a tiny elevated gas reading and the next they have complete loss of control of the well. 

Regardless of bagging the operator, all things far down and deep must be complex and extremely difficult, not every well achieves a flawless run like SL did, i remain perplexed why the inability to control a well is not considered as a step toward a positive indication of some success in the drill...

does anyone have the stats on how many wells are later decalared dry or uncommercial and abandonded after they have had operators loss of control on the pressure or have blowouts?


----------



## INORE

Agent M...perhaps the reason could be that an uncontrolled/unchoked flow of gas may lead to formation damage....


----------



## Agentm

your right,, they dont want to risk that, but i wouldnt have thought the risk of that happening is that high. I would imagine the operator would be familiar with loss of flow and gas kicks..

sounds like a gentle retreat then they case or line it, then wireline and then frac.. i am guessing the idea of drilling further at this point is out of the question.  would they sidetrack?

regardless of the issues, i tend to think the inications are they have potential to generate commercial flow.


----------



## Agentm

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ..... a gap-up, with sustained volume last week,
> was very encouraging ... especially as the next
> positive time cycle falls into place tomorrow .....
> 
> 11122006 ... significant and positive - finances (???)
> 
> 22122006 ... positive spotlight on ADI
> 
> 27122006 ... more positive news, expected here.
> 
> 
> 15012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> 16012007 ... short rally here ???
> 
> 19012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> 26-29012007 ... major and negative cycle here
> - finance-related ???
> 
> 02022007 ... significant and negative news expected.
> 
> 19022007 ... negative spotlight on ADI
> 
> 21022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> 26022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.
> 
> ..... looking further ahead, ADI should be really
> on the boil in December 2007.
> 
> More later.
> 
> happy days
> 
> yogi
> 
> 
> 
> =====
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .





i showed disrespect to yogi, and after re reading the predictions i would say the above is basically spot on.

my apologies to yogi.. i am deeply humbled and will not doubt you again..

are you god????


----------



## resourceboom

M, hope we don't have to wait until December 07 before ADI is powering tho


----------



## Agentm

i feel we have a lot of reasons to believe the sp will be booming way before dec 07..


----------



## HRL

I'm a believer in the longterm of ADI so happy holding but I also think that December is a long way off.  Given that both NT & SL are well advanced (SL primaries already out of the way obviously) I would be expecting some action by Sept at the latest.  That's 6mths from now... what do you reckon?


----------



## INORE

The trouble i have with yogis prediction is that if sugarloaf fraccing is successful it will be a BIG positive (SP above $1) and if the fraccing turns up nothing it will be a BIG negative (SP below 30c)...either of these swings should happen well before Dec.  I also beleive that the SP changing from being in the 90c range down to the 50c range is a little more than a minor and difficult cycle as the SP has almost halved....


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> i feel we have a lot of reasons to believe the sp will be booming way before dec 07..



Yes yes, but you were saying the same thing when the SP was almost double what it is now.

A lot of punters have lost money on this one, so any positive news on NT will be more of an excuse to get out of long positions rather than propel the SP into blue sky.

The bounce off support at 50c has been rather pathetic, so I would not be surprised to see this in the low 40s or at long term support in the 30s.

Total lack of information (and don't give us the BS about "reading between the lines" etc, it just shows total disrespect to the shareholders). Big delays, and a lot of people having been burnt in the past don't bode well for the immediate future of this stock. What confidence would you actually have putting your money on this one? I'd prefer to put money into companies that actually HAVE reserves and are undervalued, rather than hyped companies that couldn't care less about their shareholders being kept in the dark.


----------



## nioka

INORE said:


> The trouble i have with yogis prediction is that if sugarloaf fraccing is successful it will be a BIG positive (SP above $1) and if the fraccing turns up nothing it will be a BIG negative (SP below 30c)...either of these swings should happen well before Dec.  I also beleive that the SP changing from being in the 90c range down to the 50c range is a little more than a minor and difficult cycle as the SP has almost halved....




I agree with this. The immediate future of ADI depends entirely on NT and Sugarloaf and their results should be known very soon. However the "blue sky" will not be reached until the production has been proved and this may take until the end of the year. So both predictions may be right.


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> Yes yes, but you were saying the same thing when the SP was almost double what it is now.
> 
> A lot of punters have lost money on this one, so any positive news on NT will be more of an excuse to get out of long positions rather than propel the SP into blue sky.
> 
> The bounce off support at 50c has been rather pathetic, so I would not be surprised to see this in the low 40s or at long term support in the 30s.
> 
> Total lack of information (and don't give us the BS about "reading between the lines" etc, it just shows total disrespect to the shareholders). Big delays, and a lot of people having been burnt in the past don't bode well for the immediate future of this stock. What confidence would you actually have putting your money on this one? I'd prefer to put money into companies that actually HAVE reserves and are undervalued, rather than hyped companies that couldn't care less about their shareholders being kept in the dark.




I don't agree with you that the company has hyped its announcements, sure it has kept the market in the dark which is frustrating but if anything they are extremely cautious rather than bullish with their news.


----------



## chops_a_must

Broadside said:


> I don't agree with you that the company has hyped its announcements, sure it has kept the market in the dark which is frustrating but if anything they are extremely cautious rather than bullish with their news.



I was referring to hyped here and obviously on other stock forums. Certainly not from the announcements.


----------



## Agentm

NT looks still to have reasons to continue on and wireline and perhaps frac and test..

I know like everyone that SL had a lot of speculation in Dec when the primary neared, i certainly accumulated more then, and today the sp is way under what i paid, no complaints from me, i took the risk and would have enjoyed spectacular results like everyone if the primary did produce commercial flow on this well..

The secondaries were a primary motivation for me to invest, i have remained in and like others am looking at topping up should the sp decrease much more.. I have no problem with adi and its short or long term future.


----------



## Agentm

hey chops..

your right about the sp, with NT success a great deal of people would possibly jump, so i think that senario would certainly be on the minds with any late holders who went in at the last minute for the primary..  

i dont know if thats your position or not, but its really important to understand the nature of the business in texas on wells. they dont disclose anything..

ADi has in my view tried to give its holders some clues on the secondaries, indicating 2 wells and also ARQ stating it was commercial. that happened very shortly after the wirelines, then we hear nothing.

if you read this forum and the other you will find a great deal of positive attitude towards adi. i see the secondaries as being the best reason to stay in the share, i notice all the long term holders have stayed, and many like me were in at far better prices also than todays, none of the directors have sold, and all major holders accross all the JVP's have held. my decision to stay is also based of factors such as management, the movement of the top 20 holders, and also my own research.

i understand some holders are frustrated with the lack of news, and its up to each and every holder to deal with it what ever way they want..

yep i wanted to be on bendigo mining for the last 3 weeks and didnt in spite of a 40% increase in the sp,, i have my reasons to hold, and each seller today has their reasons to sell.. we all do our own research and have our opinions, and yours are valid..

the JVP's have made no announcements that really give any signs on the secondaries, yet if you look at quarterlies, and presentations and broker reports you see an completely different story..

lets just say i back the ones who are staying put.. so i stay, and others are also and to a certain degree there is an exodus in smaller numbers..

good luck to all sellers and to all those who have recently purchased, good luck also..


----------



## HRL

Good news for NT.  They have stablised the well and yanked the string.  Potential pay zones in both lower and upper sections.  Testing yet to be announced...


----------



## Agentm

*NEW TAITON WELL LOG RESULTS *​[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]As of this morning WA time, casing operations at the Ilse-1 well are now complete, with a 5 inch liner cementing to the total depth of approximately 17,000 feet (5,183 metres). [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Since the most recent update last week, the well was able to be stabilised and the drill string pulled out of the hole followed by the acquisition of wire line logs. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section and other potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox. A decision as to which zones will be tested will be made once log analysis is complete. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Due to the nature of the over pressured formations at total depth and for safety considerations, the decision was made not to attempt to drill deeper in this well. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]The scope and timing of the testing programme is yet to be determined but will be announced as soon as agreed by the joint venture. [/FONT]
[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]Adelphi’s Executive Chairman, Alex Forcke, commented: [/FONT]​[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]"The interpreted pay zones from this well have the potential to lead to commercial production in a relatively short order given the close proximity of our well to existing gas processing and export infrastructure in the New Taiton area. This however is still subject to the successful testing of this well which will also give us a better understanding of the volume of reserves that may be present in this discovery." [/FONT]



[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]the way i see it... they announced 70 feet of elevated gas readings in the upper zone.. and now say its: _potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox_.[/FONT]

[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]CONDENSATE!!! yes please!![/FONT]


[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]and as for the lower wilcox, the second primary, last week they announced they were 300 feet short on the drill, so they are only just into the play and they have announced today in the lower play: _Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section _[/FONT]


[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]so we have 300 feet of unknown territory and whole lot of great stuff already..[/FONT]

[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]i would say extremely positive news... oil is always a nice thing!!![/FONT]


----------



## constable

well agentm you must be wetting yourself over the price rise this morning  ......and aint nobody selling neither!!


----------



## Agentm

not really,  the sp has been way above this level, and as far as i am concerned the current price is absolutely nothing like it will be is a few months when the chalks are announced..


----------



## HRL

Yeah I don't think anyone will be 'wetting themselves' after being in the 90c area not long ago.  

Was looking at the ADI historical charts this morning and couldn't help noticing the volumes being traded.  There were large & sustained volumes traded between Oct06-Jan07 but now even though the sp has tanked in March the volumes have been relatively low.  This says to me that the majority are holding and waiting for NT & SL secondaries.  Of course if either or both NT/SL disappoint that volume will be unloaded and we will really see a dive but there is certainly some confidence still in the stock otherwise the big dive would have already happened.  Just my opinion of course.


----------



## Agentm

the two most interesting thing i can see today is that they had great shows, and couldnt finish off the 300 feet they were planning on, so the second and lower primary has shows and is not completed..  

the fact they have detected condensate/oil in the upper primary makes me very interested,, i didnt realise they had oil on the radar, just gas..  nice little bonus..

it seems the market likes the news, and i imagine having some further success on the drill bit after the chalks makes it potentially 2 out of 2.

the NT play is on a very productive and well researched wilcox zone. its fair to say that from a wireline they can get extremely good data that can be cross referenced to thousands of wells, then initial indications of reserves and flow rates and the like are usually fairly well concluded from the logs and most fracing programs afterwards get close to the indications they can get from the logs..

alex sounded pretty upbeat in his comments.. i guess we can assume the logs are reading well..


----------



## fflintoff

*Aussie juniors find gas deep in heart of Texas*

Good press.:bigun2: 

"Aussie juniors find gas deep in heart of Texas

Tuesday, 27 March 2007

CASING operations are now complete at the Ilse-1 deep gas well in the New Taiton prospect in Texas. Preliminary logs indicate several zones that could have commercial volumes of hydrocarbons, according to the project's two Australian partners, Antares Energy and Adelphi Energy. 


The two Perth-headquartered juniors said five-inch liner had been cemented to the total depth of about 17,000 feet (5183m). Due to the nature of the over-pressured formations at total depth and for safety considerations, the decision was made not to attempt to drill deeper. 

"Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon-bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section and other potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox," the two companies said in a statement. 

"The interpreted pay zones from this well have the potential to lead to commercial production in a relatively short order, given the close proximity of our well to existing gas processing and export infrastructure in the New Taiton area. 

"This, however, is still subject to the successful testing of this well, which will also give us a better understanding of the volume of reserves that may be present in this discovery." 

A decision as to which zones will be tested will be made once log analysis is complete. The scope and timing of the testing program is yet to be determined.

Participants in the Ilse-1 well are operator S Lavon Evans, Jr Inc, which holds a 30% stake, Adelphi Energy Texas (25%), Antares Energy (25%), Index Oil & Gas (USA) (10%) and private US interests (10%"

http://www.petroleumnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=94887


----------



## rub92me

Another "read between the lines". The word "potential" is mentioned 3 times in the announcement, and one "may be". 
I have the potential of being a billionaire soon, but then again, may be not...


----------



## Agentm

ADi will never mislead anyone 

potentially they are going to make you a billionaire and me a millionaire!!


----------



## tomcat

I enjoyed AZZ's Howard McLaughlin comment:

'Still subject to successful testing of this well which will also give us a better understanding of the volume of the reserves that may be present in this discovery'

'Subject to testing' (as always) but interesting that he is calling it a discovery at this point, must have great logs.

Question...if there is so much pressure down there what type of testing is likely to be called for?


----------



## Agentm

once the wirelines are poroperly analysed they then put a production testing plan in place, and perforate and frac the zones of interest..

i would say the chances of the actual rig ever seeing itself on a azz or adi site anytime in the future would be nil..

a workover rig will be called in once they have an idea on what they need to frac.. assuming the principle of 90% of wells being fraced regardless in texas, i assume this one is going to follow the others..

the fact it kicked so hard they couldnt drill any further and they got 10 - 50 feet of play in the lower primary alone, makes for some exciting times ahead, there are still hundreds of feet (300) to TD and you would have to guess that there must be more of this stuff down there.

my tip is that a second well must be drilled on the play in anycase..

there is another seperate play on the lease also that azz wants to drill, so NT looks like a nice potential commercial play with lots more to offer on the lease..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Now this is a great clear and honest announcement in my opinion.Alex sounds very pleased with the results and gives his opinion with a slight degree of caution that nothing is absolute untill tested what more could you ask of the man I'm very pleased.
This should put a good safety barrier under the SP and may never see it in the 50's again as results start too flow in!
SL still remains an inigma but in my opinion the longer we wait the more deals are being discretly done behind the scenes!
Thanks ALEX


----------



## INORE

Agentm said:


> ADi will never mislead anyone
> 
> potentially they are going to make you a billionaire and me a millionaire!!




So what does the SP need to get to b4 u become a millionaire M?   Just kidding...


----------



## Agentm

hey inore..  i keep hoping for those outcomes, not just for me but where all holders make a absolute killing..

i knwo your a AZZ holder, and they have great potential and you have backed a great company there, but if your on the adi share, then your in for a great journey too!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Should be a strong day tommorrow with the general feeling of confidence in NT any with SL still lurking in the winds looks good buying oppurtunity


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:


> once the wirelines are poroperly analysed they then put a production testing plan in place, and perforate and frac the zones of interest..
> 
> i would say the chances of the actual rig ever seeing itself on a azz or adi site anytime in the future would be nil..
> 
> a workover rig will be called in once they have an idea on what they need to frac.. assuming the principle of 90% of wells being fraced regardless in texas, i assume this one is going to follow the others..
> 
> the fact it kicked so hard they couldnt drill any further and they got 10 - 50 feet of play in the lower primary alone, makes for some exciting times ahead, there are still hundreds of feet (300) to TD and you would have to guess that there must be more of this stuff down there.
> 
> my tip is that a second well must be drilled on the play in anycase..
> 
> there is another seperate play on the lease also that azz wants to drill, so NT looks like a nice potential commercial play with lots more to offer on the lease..




Hey Agentm,

Does ADI have a commercial agreement with AZZ to participate in any further wells on this lease?


----------



## HRL

Just announced... ADI have entered into an agreement with four other Aussie oil & gas companies (ARQ, AWT, BKP & BPT) to collectively acquire hydrocarbon projects together with an initial focus on Africa.  The aim is to pool their resources to allow all five companies to participate in large scale projects they wouldn't otherwise be able to get into on their own.  Good news for the longterm of ADI.


----------



## HRL

Going over this again I think this is a really good move for ADI.  Allowing them to participate in large deals, reduce overall risk (a key factor for a small explorer) and pool complementary resources such as financials & HR.  This opens up Africa also which would otherwise be off limits to the small companies given the commitment and requirements of an exploration strategy in that region.  Also, this is not a joint venture so none of the companies are bound to participate in any particular project if they don't want to or are unable to.

Above all this tells you that the mgmnt of all five companies are focused on growing their individual companies and increasing shareholder wealth.  Market seems to approve this morning also... nice open.


----------



## Agentm

tomcat

thats a good question, from reports i have seen i believe it is:

_In addition, there is another prospect within ADI’s existing leases with similarities to New Taiton that will likely be targeted at a later date_​ 
_simon tomkins broker report 8 dec 2006_

i am assuming they had, and they have told brokers they have, if you have any info saying the contrary i would be interested..



oh   VIVA the ALLIANCE!!!!


----------



## tomcat

Yep, They definately have :

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/quarterly/ASX Release Quarterly Report 30 September 2006.pdf

Quote Pg 3 Adelphi Quarterly Report 30 Sept 2006 New Taiton

'Since the last quarter the joint venture was also successful in securing further leases in the area which has provided us with extensive lease coverage in relation to the relevant depths for New Taiton as well as the additional follow-up prospect mapped earlier this year'

Lets get this one producing and then move onto the next


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## The Snorkler

Africa is vary difficult - onshore there are not many pipelines. Companies trying to develop Uganda might need to prove up 1/2 billion barrels minimum.

Hence the strategy for Aussie juniors might be to get a rig in there, drill some holes and locate resources to generate interest. Not too many holes mind you - dont want to sterilise an area. Then flog to Big Boys for a tidy profit.


----------



## Agentm

hey snorkler..

i wanna ask you how uganda came into the picture, is it something you have heard?

just curious, i couldnt see any reference to uganda in the release nor in any other press releases..

cheers


----------



## Agentm

March 28, 2007 

HERE'S a good message for the domestic oil and gas industry: When looking for the goods in West Africa, it is better to hunt in a pack.
So says Beach Petroleum, Baraka Petroleum, ARC Energy and Adelphi Energy who have formed an alliance - which also includes the unlisted energy consulting and engineering firm Advanced Well Technologies - to take on the better equipped majors in the rush to lock up land both on and offshore in West Africa. 

The world's oil men and women are beating a relatively untrodden path to try their luck in the previously sterilised nations of West Africa which include energy-rich Nigeria and Angola in a bid to find the world's next best oil and gas deposit. 

While the former Hardman Resources, easily Australia's most successful African oil exploration outfit, might provide a tonne of inspiration for them, times have changed since the mid-1990s when Hardman was able to lock up large offshore acreage. 

The biggest change since Hardman's glory days is easily explained; the big international players are also on the West African hunt. 

The untapped reserves provide plenty of incentives for the likes of Royal Dutch Shell to set up shop in Lagos or Luanda, so does the historically high oil price and the good quality of the oil and gas being discovered. 

West Africa may not be particularly stable, but what makes it so appealing to foreign interests is that most of the oil can be found offshore and on a direct shipping route to Europe or North America. 

Some industry estimates predict West African oil and gas will supply 25 per cent of the US energy market needs by 2015. 

The World Economic Forum was told last year that Africa's known oil reserves stands at about 110 billion barrels, or about 9 per cent of total world known reserves. 

Of that Nigeria is believed to hold 35 billion barrels and Angola about nine billion. Importantly for Africa, China remains its favourite trading partner in terms of oil. 

Similarly, Africa's gas reserves are just as impressive and the continent is believed to contain 7 per cent of the world's 6300 trillion cubic feet of reserves. 

Out of West Africa, Nigeria leads the way with about 180tcf. 

But the domestic oil and gas industry would still be a touch nervous after Woodside failed to prove up its majority-owned Chinguetti field to market satisfaction. 

One way of looking at this unique alliance is that it gives critical mass to shoulder the risk. Another way is that it will allow the group to "punch well above the sum of the individual companies' collective weight", says Baraka general manager Mark Fenton puts it. 

"For smaller companies such as ours, this represents a unique opportunity to significantly increase the size of deals we can participate in, a reduction in our overall risk levels and a pooling of complementary resources," he said. 

It is believed that the alliance was initially a dream coming out of Baraka's Perth headquarters. Baraka has the smallest market cap out of the four listed companies - $55 million versus the biggest which is Beach Petroleum which is valued at a touch over $1 billion. 

Combined, the four listed companies have a similar market cap to that of Hardman Resources before it was taken over by mid-sized British outfit Tullow Oil last year. 

However the local oil and gas industry is relatively small enough that when Baraka came knocking, the others quickly saw merit in the dream. 

Beach Petroleum, easily the biggest of the four listed companies says it is primed to get into West Africa and has the operating cashflow to finance it. 

"We've been looking at West Africa for the past six months," managing director Reg Nelson said.

"The right geologies are there and there have been some good discoveries. There is a lot of great experience among this alliance. It is not always that the big companies have all the expertise."

Adelphi chairman Alex Forcke was a bit more upbeat about the immediate prospects for the alliance, claiming it could have a decent West African asset to mull over by the end of the year. 

"All of these companies have someone who have experience in Africa," he said. 

"We couldn't do the things we want to do as individual companies by fighting the majors. No one has to commit themselves to any project, but I am confident there will be one project under the belt by the end of the year."


----------



## Agentm

*
hey snorkler, i finally got it about the ugandan thing.. 

nice pickup for adi!!

this news is very very good for the long term..


1. Appointment of Exploration Manager​*Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) is pleased to advise the appointment of Mr Robert Hall as Exploration Manager. This appointment provides Adelphi with a highly experienced management team which will be able to add value to both our existing projects and initiatives and to the recently announced international “New Projects Alliance”. 
Rob is a geologist with over 25 years experience in international oil and gas exploration and development projects. He has worked in a variety of geographic locations and technical/operational positions which have included senior roles at Elf, Ampolex Limited, ExxonMobil, Fusion Oil & Gas NL, Sterling Energy Ltd, Impress Energy and Hardman Resources. Rob has been actively involved in a number of African exploration and development
projects in Mauritania, Gambia, Ghana, Gabon and, until most recently, in Uganda where he was responsible for the development of Hardman’s onshore oil discoveries. He has also spent considerable time in senior exploration and operational roles in Indonesia, China, Thailand, PNG as well as in Australia. 
In his new role at Adelphi, Rob will work closely with Chris Hodge, Adelphi’s Exploration Director, to further grow and develop the Company’s 
exploration portfolio.​


----------



## fflintoff

More evidence of the growing confidence in the commerciality of the chalks. More & more the term " commercial " is being used to describe the chalks

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/news/Mpex Daily 28 Mar 07.pdf

“Adelphi also brings international experience to
the alliance, currently participating in the Ilse-1
well on the New Taiton prospect in Wharton
County Texas, along with achieving what could
be a commercial gas well with its first Gulf of
Texas drill, Sugarloaf-1, where testing is
currently in progress.” 

MPEX


----------



## cicak_kupang

Fantastic news for ADI that a man with Robert Halls experiance is on the board.  Also say's a great deal about ADI that a man of this back ground wants to be associated with ADI.  
Interestingly enough, with HS now out of the picture, it seems that trying to put a potential sp on this stock in now near impossble.  Im near certain that ADI's propossed reserves for NT and SL are greater than they anticipated.


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> More evidence of the growing confidence in the commerciality of the chalks. More & more the term " commercial " is being used to describe the chalks
> 
> http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/news/Mpex Daily 28 Mar 07.pdf
> 
> “Adelphi also brings international experience to
> the alliance, currently participating in the Ilse-1
> well on the New Taiton prospect in Wharton
> County Texas, along with achieving what could
> be a commercial gas well with its first Gulf of
> Texas drill, Sugarloaf-1, where testing is
> currently in progress.”
> 
> MPEX





same article:

At the time of announcement, the four ASX listed
parties in the Alliance had a combined
market cap of over $1.41bil, ranking fifth in
Australia in terms of size behind BHP,
Woodside, Origin and Santos, and around
$200mil ahead of AWE. The four listed
companies had $114.2mil cash on hand
between them at the end of last quarter.​ 

making them 5th in terms of size.. this is just starting to sink in​ 
the first project will be announced within months, and the commencement of it will be by the end of the year. its very feasable that the projects these guys are looking at are already in the portfolios of one or more of the partners..​ 
so with NT announcements on wirelines and testing i see mainly upside,​ 
with the commercial chalks around the corner is only see upside,​ 
with yemen perhaps commencing i only see upside,​ 
with the announcements of major projects with the alliance in the next 60 days i see only upside,​ 
NT may raise a lot of eyebrows when things are announced,, i certainly believe the chalks will, way beyond anyones expectations.. i cant see any downside or announcements to come that will deliver downsides of any kind..​ 
all IMHO DYOR​


----------



## Sniffer

Not a lot of news on SL lately.  It took about 6-8 weeks to put a plan together for the Hosston.  I would think there is enough info on the shallows (producing adjacent fields) to have a plan together by now.  I would also like to hear some of the results of the 3D seismic processing over the prospect (are there potential plays after SL1, will they reforecast the reserves, etc.)

Maybe they realized that they got the hosston test plan wrong and need to bring in some heavy hitters before they plug it off. (wishful thinking I know)


----------



## Agentm

the hosston sands are written off as far as the JVP's are concerned, the TCO operator would still consider it in terms of researching the results to see if anything could be salvaged from the data to perhaps get a result using stimulation techniques of some nature, but ultimately the well deeper than sligo is written off.

Once the jvp's have decided upon the frac program for the chalks, and the timing, the operator will bring in a workover rig and start it up, i expect in the near term some news will flow regarding that.

I would have liked to know what the NT well is doing, regardless of the chalks, i am keen as anything to get some knowlege on what they think of the NT play. i hear they are extremely happy with whats happened there so far. Its pretty obvious the well stopped drilling as it couldnt keep an equalibrium with the pressures, and has to abandon the last 300 feet of drilling, they are keen to get things up and running i believe and they must have some good ideas about it potentially being a commercial well, i noticed the AZZ announcement on wedesday: 

Immediate plans are to acquire a cement bond log, check shot and directional wireline surveys as part of the production testing preparation.​

my view, and hopes, on the SL shallows are that they will produce gas and condensate as couchy predicted, and if they produce gas alone i will be more than happy in any case. I am certain the many references by ARQ and ADI in presentations and to brokers that the initial predictions of reserves on the shallows are way off. I would expect the main focus by the JVP's would be forward planning the development of the play after the results of the frac program and testing comes in.

I see ARQ energy is keen on announcing the rift valley in uganda as potential target for the alliance. The new exploration manager at ADI, robert hall,  would have lots of info on that area as his posting at hardiman would have been invaluable, as they are also a player in uganda. 

this share is certainly giving many unexpected suprises of late, i feel there is one or two more to come in the near term..


----------



## Lucky_Country

All is very silent here lately is everyone as frustrated as me on the lack of no news on SL or NT.
Playing the waiting game has taken the SP down and maybe taken ADI off the radar so now is a good time too buy if you are a believer.
I think we will be rewarded but it is taking alot longer than anyone would have expected !


----------



## itchy

i personally think adi have no where to go anymore but lower. Speccy stocks like adi do not always go up, hence why the are speculative stocks, even in the current mkt and i think a lot of ppl will discover this with adi. I hope for their sake i am wrong, but there are many other nice plays out there with greater upside potential, that i would prefer to go with (nwe, stx, cvn to name a few). Investing now in adi would be very risky one would have to think.
just me thinking out loud
dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

itchy said:


> i personally think adi have no where to go anymore but lower. Speccy stocks like adi do not always go up, hence why the are speculative stocks, even in the current mkt and i think a lot of ppl will discover this with adi. I hope for their sake i am wrong, but there are many other nice plays out there with greater upside potential, that i would prefer to go with (nwe, stx, cvn to name a few). Investing now in adi would be very risky one would have to think.
> just me thinking out loud
> dyor




Everyone is entitled too their own opinion ADI going down well anything is posible but if you read all the reports,dyor, and feed of others well educated analysis you should be positive on ADI with a certain ammount of control as nothing is set in concrete YET !


----------



## chops_a_must

Lucky_Country said:


> Everyone is entitled too their own opinion ADI going down well anything is posible but if you read all the reports,dyor, and feed of others well educated analysis you should be positive on ADI with a certain ammount of control as nothing is set in concrete YET !




I see no resource, just plenty of hopes.

There are so many undervalued oilers out there (NWE) probably being the main one, along with WGP and CVN that actually HAVE PROVEN or probable RESERVES. Which all makes me wonder why on earth you would put your hard earned into this stock. The chalks may/ my not be commercial blah blah. I keep hearing, "read between the lines" etc etc. but until the bit between the lines says what they actually have, then people really have to take a reality check on this one in comparison to other opportunities out there.

Totally agree with you itchy.


----------



## Lucky_Country

chops_a_must said:


> I see no resource, just plenty of hopes.
> 
> There are so many undervalued oilers out there (NWE) probably being the main one, along with WGP and CVN that actually HAVE PROVEN or probable RESERVES. Which all makes me wonder why on earth you would put your hard earned into this stock. The chalks may/ my not be commercial blah blah. I keep hearing, "read between the lines" etc etc. but until the bit between the lines says what they actually have, then people really have to take a reality check on this one in comparison to other opportunities out there.
> 
> Totally agree with you itchy.



Yeh I understand your reasoning but Im affraid my conclusion lies in the same pattern as AgentM who has enlightened us all with his informative posts ones that doubters are lacking


----------



## resourceboom

There are plenty of believers, plenty of non believers. The speccy nature of this share means there could be massive losses if all turns to you know what. I believe, and am happy with the risk reward!  Time will tell whether this was a wise decision.  Each to their own!!


----------



## resourceboom

Forgot to mention that till we get any news re commerciality the SP could go anywhere, but most holders would be aware of that.


----------



## Agentm

everyone makes their decisions on adi based on their own research.

with an alliance making it the 4th biggest oil explorer in aust i am not complaining about the future of the stock post sugarloaf.

SL is totally about reading between the lines, and totally about understanding what and how business is done in texas, when i read a post about it not being about secrecy, then i have to discount the post as it has no facts added to counter the reasons i know are in play on the Sl well. and i cant see anything to work with and analyse the post much further. if your on the stock , then you must fully familiarise yourself to how things are played in texas as its crutial factor in the future of the sp.  

For those who are strong willed enought to talk to the jvp's and actually find out for themselves, i see those people are similar in view to me, and stay firmly on the stock. again i have challenged anyone who doubts Sl to DYOR and actively communicate with the JVP's and directly ask if what couch oil reported is to be totally discounted. i note that despite numerous doubters on the Sl prospect posting, none have actually come forward with their results from the challenge.  

anyone can call the SL prospect uncommercial, without doing any research, and be half convincing, the well has not been fraced, and in no way can any of the jvp's tout success on the chalks until that part of the operation is completed. oddly there is no noise about why they are not testing the chalks??  i find it an open invitation for any doubter to easily scare an investor and say they have to doubt the well if the JVP's are simply ignoring the secondaries. somehow i dont hear that from the doubters, which says to me that there is obviously a unanimous and silent consensus that the untested chalks are simply laying dormant, with no action occuring, and yet no one is saying that it must be because the chalks are uncommercial. 

so why are we all holding onto the shares so tighly?

again i point out that the people being critical of the investors on this stock, that they dont need  to be thinking about the reasons nor be responsible for the actions of other investors. i have held on to adi despite absolutely being convinced i should be on BDG and get the 40% sp increase. but i have held firm and stick to what i know. nwe wpg and cvn have not increased 40% in the past few weeks.. i dont ask for advice from others on any stock, but will gladly contribute to comment on adi. 

I need not look any further than this stock to see a vastly undervalued stock in the making. if i didnt see a massive sp increase dwarfing the petty 40% the bdg stock has just seen then i wouldnt be holding the adi stock for another day.  i know what i am doing and i fully understand what risk, if any, there is.

i just read the azz report released today, they have some more news on NT that was not released to the market previously

The Ilse-1 well on the New Taiton project spudded on 1 December 2006
and reached a total depth of 17,000 feet early March 2007. A significant
show was encountered over a 70 foot interval from 14,550-14,620 feet
with sandstone and elevated gas readings up to 1000 units. This is tentatively interpreted to be the secondary upper Wilcox Meek sandstone
target which has a mapped reserve potential of 20 BCF. The Operator
is currently preparing to run logs at 17,000 feet.​ 
its possible NT is still on track towards being a producer in the near term..

good luck to holders, and again DYOR and keep checking the facts..


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> again i point out that the people being critical of the investors on this stock, that they dont need  to be thinking about the reasons nor be responsible for the actions of other investors. i have held on to adi despite absolutely being convinced i should be on BDG and get the 40% sp increase. but i have held firm and stick to what i know. *nwe wpg and cvn have not increased 40% in the past few weeks..* i dont ask for advice from others on any stock, but will gladly contribute to comment on adi.



Lol! WGP up ~250% in the last week.
NWE and CVN both up more than 30% in the time ADI has almost halved.

You say ADI are the 4th biggest explorer in Australia. Whoopty doo. It's just a bit of w**k factor if they haven't got much to produce.

Regardless of the Texas oil industry, they have to publicly release their plans for the Austin Chalks. They owe that to holders. Until they do, people should remain sceptical. I notice BUR are drilling in the chalks right now... yet, not a sound here about that...

I'm not ruling out holding this in the future, but until they decide to get out of the smoke and mirrors game, scepticism should well and truly reign.


----------



## constable

Agentm and chops ....convincing arguements from both sides of the fence!!
Im still holding eka for sl and am patiently waiting.........
Chops looking at the graph on adi.....after today's rise ,should it hold ,adi looks like it could be a double bottom.  Certainly looks oversold with so much in the pipeline.


----------



## chops_a_must

constable said:


> Agentm and chops ....convincing arguements from both sides of the fence!!
> Im still holding eka for sl and am patiently waiting.........
> Chops looking at the graph on adi.....after today's rise ,should it hold ,adi looks like it could be a double bottom.  Certainly looks oversold with so much in the pipeline.



A double bottom would be below .50. However, it does seem to have good support above and below 50. I'd assume the buying strength is in anticipation of the next NT announcement. Could hold it above 70 if it is positive.


----------



## constable

chops_a_must said:


> A double bottom would be below .50. However, it does seem to have good support above and below 50. I'd assume the buying strength is in anticipation of the next NT announcement. Could hold it above 70 if it is positive.




My bad....
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom
what is the name for this particular type of reversal formation that adi is pushing out???(im sure its got one).


----------



## Agentm

i am hoping for that chops, have plenty more shares to buy in the near term, and i fully expect .50 in the near term..

i am curious why your not posting on wpg thread chops. either before or after it rose, i can go look up a whole bunch of stocks that went up and say to adi investors to look elsewhere also, but is that a good enough reason to jump off the stock?

as for the alliance, you certainly show no respect towards it, yet ian mcfarlane mentioned it in a speech last week, i would like to know why the federal minister is so upbeat about it and you show so much resentment toward the alliance, i have not heard any negative press or comment anywhere except from you. have you a problem with the alliance? as a shareholder i cant see any downside on it. if you spoke to woodside and hardiman they would not agree with your view on the alliance. they have massive respect for max.. what makes you think max cant deliver for us?


as for BUR drilling into the austin chalks? so what, its not on the same play at all, SL in karnes county and miles away, the chalks are a major carrier of hydrocarbon plays rights accross the gulf.. just as the wilcox is a prolific producer. just because other companies drill in the austin or wilcox plays in texas is not enough reason to jump off this prospect in karnes county in my book

i would prefer to hear from any doubters why they know the sl chalks are dead.. just keep it simple, just some sound reasons to think about, all investors need to consider all sides.. if you discount the sl chalks as commercial then your certainly making some wierd decisions to value the stock at its current price in my books, for me the major value in the share comes from SL and if anyone has reasons to bring forward on the issue that can be debated, then love to hear it and i think everyone would like to discuss it.

as for smoke and mirrors, chops thats how its done in texas, if you declare what you have to your competitors then you may as well not be in the game, you can only afford to sign up a limited amount of leases on a play, and certianly you dont share your finds to anyone, a neighbouring leaseholder has potential to be part of your future, so you dont tell them everything before you approach them to sign them up. and in texas anyone can sign up anybody, if someone senses a major play, then the big boys arrive and try to cut into the play, tco can keep up with the majors, i have my reasons to believe that, so i am not concerned on that front.,
you cant invest in that atmosphere, and thats a good way to be chops, but that doesnt mean others have not done their research and fully expect the sl chalks play to be extremely commercial. 

dyor on the way things are done in texas and get a good idea about it on this stock, i maintain its a key factor in why the sp is currently where it is and why the share is tightly held


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> as for the alliance, you certainly show no respect towards it, yet ian mcfarlane mentioned it in a speech last week, i would like to know why the federal minister is so upbeat about it and you show so much resentment toward the alliance, i have not heard any negative press or comment anywhere except from you. have you a problem with the alliance? as a shareholder i cant see any downside on it. if you spoke to woodside and hardiman they would not agree with your view on the alliance. they have massive respect for max.. what makes you think max cant deliver for us?
> 
> i would prefer to hear from any doubters why they know the sl chalks are dead.. just keep it simple, just some sound reasons to think about, all investors need to consider all sides.. if you discount the sl chalks as commercial then your certainly making some wierd decisions to value the stock at its current price in my books, for me the major value in the share comes from SL and if anyone has reasons to bring forward on the issue that can be debated, then love to hear it and i think everyone would like to discuss it.



You'd have to check the CSM thread for my posts on WGP.

I don't have a problem with the alliance, but I'm critical that people seem to be writing as if success had already been achieved.

I understand that that is how things are done in Texas. The issue for me is not what they may or may not have in the chalks, but their plans for it. And so far they haven't said anything, as far as I am aware.

So if you have any information about this then post it. Otherwise stating that they have commercial amounts, and that reserves will be above expectations, without any support, is a blatant ramp.


----------



## Agentm

there is no success in the alliance?  its not the point of it, the alliance is set up to make a success of projects that the entities as individuals can not achieve. you have it all wrong. no one has made any posts that they have allready achieved success, there has been no project declared and no commencement of anything to determin or measure success.

two of the jvps have declared their plans for the secondaries last year, then very abruptly were never mentioned again, adi has declared 2 shallow wells in 2007. i have posted this and lots of other info on the jvp's attitude towards the chalks. arq has once stated they were commercial. 

if you think this thread is not moderated and anything being said about the chalks being commercial is a blatent ramp then you obviously have not been reading this thread enough, nor simply checked all the info posted by the jvp's, i have seen nowhere where the jvp's have written off the chalks. . DYOR and tell me where they have written off the chalks chops. 

there are plenty of mentions from jvp's and their partners and brokers making very amazing claims on the chalks. All is ask from you chops is to present to the forum when and where the chalks are written off. i am happy to debate the chalks, i feel any investor is extremely interested in the subject.

anything you are not aware but the jvp's are aware of and have declared isnt simply ramping, i feel your not very objective, there is plenty of research that you are not aware of and i am, and just because you dont know what the jvp's has announced, does not mean people are ramping, it simply means others, including the jvp's, are more informed perhaps than you. please look back in the posts, look back into the reports and announcements made by all the jvp's, if you want references to the chalks by the jvp's, and please present to the forum where it says they are written off, and perhaps you can explain why they are not testing the secondaries today.. is it because the chalks are completely worthless??


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> two of the jvps have declared their plans for the secondaries last year, then very abruptly were never mentioned again, adi has declared 2 shallow wells in 2007. i have posted this and lots of other info on the jvp's attitude towards the chalks. arq has once stated they were commercial.
> 
> if you think this thread is not moderated and anything being said about the chalks being commercial is a blatent ramp then you obviously have not been reading this thread enough, nor simply checked all the info posted by the jvp's, i have seen nowhere where the jvp's have written off the chalks. . DYOR and tell me where they have written off the chalks chops.



I feel you are misreading my posts.

Why have we not heard anything about the development of the chalks? If the results from them are so amazing, surely you would expect them to be doing everything they can to be bringing them online as quickly as possible. Instead, we here nothing and have to assume delays or non-development. THIS is why I am saying you have to have a sceptical attitude towards this stock AT THIS PRESENT TIME. As you cannot invest in hopes and dreams.


----------



## chance fate

Just joined this forum thing...  the ADI thread makes interesting reading...  I've been an ADI holder on and off since July last year...  sold just after SL hit it's high and moved into EKA when it fell away from 40-50cents because EKA and ADI were going in opposite directions (before Hosston testing) which for me didn't make sense - and doubtless just like other EKA holders am feeling stuck pending SL shallow testing results... 

Obviously there's alot of specualtion as to why the timing of these tests hasn't been announced yet...  I can think of a few reasons but wondering if anyone can think of others...  could run a critical eye over them and try to narrow them down...

e.g.

1] There's still some uncertainty concering the success of the Hosston testing which precludes the lower portion of the well from being plugged to enable testing of the shallower targets - i doubt this as there'd have been an announcement concerning the need for further study work and testing...
2] Equipment and personnel not contracted/available to do the tests
3] JVP's seeking a farminee to help funding - unlikely
4] Lack of JV consensus on the Hosston results/way ahead..

Out of these no. 2 seems the most likely reason - but there maybe something in 4]

I think it's pretty bad form that announcements concering the status of progress on preparations for testing of the shallow targets haven't been forthcoming...  an announcement could at least state where the hold up lies and how it's to be overcome....  unless that would reveal commercially sensitive information which may work to the detriment of shareholders....


----------



## chance fate

Just re-reading AgentM's comments with interest on business style in Texas re. lack of news on SL shallow testing...  AgentM, I like the idea that no news is good news: and it does appear that as soon as the negative results on the primary tests were know they were released....  Also it appears that Alex Forcke's philosophy on speculation (i.e. overvalued share price) is avoid providing opinion... (having said that I've seen one or 2 comments in ARQ presentations re. 'enouraging results')....  having been involved in well testing in The Netherlands I can't imagine testing of a zone could take longer than a week....more like a couple of days...  the test results, flow rates, pressure drawdown and build up, would then need to be analysed by a production technologist/reservoir engineer, for argument's sake a weeks work...  so results should be known within 2 weeks of start of testing...  if there are several zones this process would take longer.... and i'd imagine the JV's would prefer to make a single announcement on the totality of the tests rather than step by step as results come to hand...  so given the primary tests finished 14th March (i think)...  if they moved onto the shallow targets straight away the results would be imminent....  but then again the last announcement re. SL stated that an anouncement would be made when timing for the tests is known - and there hasn't been one ...


----------



## The Snorkler

If the oil game in Texas is like poker and concealing your hand is the norm then why did Couch announce a discovery (and development plan) on his website when the chalks were intersected - on limited information? Surely he would have greater experience than the JVPs. It does not make sense. Where is his interest in doing that??

Interesting article here on oil exploration in Uganda
http://www.pole-institute.org/documents/heritage05.pdf

Last year Heritage and Tullow have drilled a vary exciting discovery - Kingfisher-1. The history of Heritage sure is interesting. Its like something out of "Blood Diamond".


----------



## Agentm

i cant in all seriousness answer that snorkler, and believe me since he made that announcement its been the single most burning question on my agenda. he announced the 100 wells development plan and didnt realise the strategy of TCO, and he may not have, in his excitement, realised that people like me, and about 3 or so months later, other forums in the UK started picking up on his weekly annoiuncements on his website. Couch oil has never been named as a JVP, its something you have to seek out and find for yourself. and couch oil has a long history of revealing everything on their website on all wells, right down to gas and oil readings daily, and being very transparent. i feel the difference here is that suddenly the massive potential of the size and value of the chalks play may have overwhelmed him, he excitedly announced the things being discussed, and did not realise the other factors that the jvp's required on the play. He certainly was told quickly to pull the site, and now his policy on data and flow rates on all wells is held closely secret, and reports are emailed individually to all interested investors. Sugarloaf is not mentioned at all anywhere on his site, not even as a well currently being drilled. perhaps he was just his lax and lazy manner that caused much constination amoungst the JVP's. No jvp i have spoken to has denied couch oil as a participant, and none have come out and denied the couch report. and when you read it, it is extremely accurate on all aspects regarding what was happeing on the drill, whats reflected in that report, as well as all other reports, is precise and to the letter accurate reflections that the other JVP's had announced, with the exception of one report containing some extra things not revealed by the operator nor any of the other jvp's!! 

At the time of the couch report, arq announced the find as potentially commercial, and adi announced 2 shallow wells and the outcome that the chalks would be a entire seperate play developed seperately from any wells on the sands should it have been commercial there. Then another jvp announced similar plans, and all this without even flow testing! 

then silence......... no smoke and mirrors, just minimalist reporting and silence........

i look forward to them announcing when the workover rig and frac crew will arive on site to further production test the 
chalks.

re the link snorkler. i read that last week myself when researching the rift valley, cover to cover its absolutely frightening!! lets hope for mali!!


----------



## stereo21

From ADI's announcement on NT today...

_A testing program is being prepared by the operator and should be available for review by the joint venture partners in the next day or two. A fracture stimulation program for the lower Wilcox is anticipated. *Negotiations for a pipeline access are underway.*_

I don't know about anyone else but negotiations to access a pipeline surely must be telling the market they believe this well will be commercial!


----------



## Agentm

i was about to post exactly the same thing, i totally agree with you.

looks like adi is about to become an oil and gas producer!


----------



## Sniffer

Agentm said:


> as for smoke and mirrors, chops thats how its done in texas, if you declare what you have to your competitors then you may as well not be in the game, you can only afford to sign up a limited amount of leases on a play, and certianly you dont share your finds to anyone, a neighbouring leaseholder has potential to be part of your future, so you dont tell them everything before you approach them to sign them up.




I tend to agree with most of your logic.  However it sure seems like they are not being too silent on NT.  Why are they giving us good info on NT and not SL secondaries.  They are both at the same point (logged/not tested).  Sugarloaf leases have been secured for over a year now and if TCE does not have the lease Pioneer Resources does.  

The wait to announce testing does not seem normal.   Pioneer produces from the wilcox and edwards at the pawnee field just a few miles away.  The geology of the shallows is well known, the test program should be boiler plate.


----------



## Agentm

re the leases, i didnt know about the leases being signed up last year, i guess thats news you have from somewhere, but the jvp's are pretty closed shop on that subject..  i dont know what levels the pawnee fields have their leases signed up at, the play in the secondaries at SL is the chalks, you would have to enquire both with pioneer and with the jvp's about what leases are signed up for what levels and with what landowner. 

let me know what they tell you..

NT is going great, obviously the data they have and comparing it to other fields has given them very upbeat feelings towards the well. They are certainly speeding up the testing there..


----------



## chance fate

Dropped ADI an email today asking them to advise when an announcement concerning SL shallow targets will be forthcoming and if there's no intention in the short term why it is not considered to be a priority....  will let you know the response if any....


----------



## Agentm

i have a feeling i know exactly what the reply will be.

i see aut issued appen 3B declaring about 2mill more shares, now 162mill shares, and their sp went up as much as 10% today..  adi has less than 50% of that, 70mill shares 

today adi announce they are trying to to a deal as to hook up NT onto a pipeline and the sp goes up 3%!!!  

come on alex, give yourself 2 mill shares and watch the market boost the sp up!!


----------



## HRL

Hate to be a wet blanket but I refuse to get excited about this one until they are pumping the stuff out of the ground.  The note about hooking a pipe up to NT is certainly good news but then NT was the low risk play for ADI.  If they stuffed this one up their credibility would really be in the toilet... not to mention the sp.  NT should be a no-brainer according to the company presentation last year.  The SL secondaries are still were the excitement is for me.


----------



## Agentm

well if you want stuff ups, the NT is one case in point, ADI was not the operator, but the delays were astounding, and with them being unable to drill because of loss of control of the well, it means 300 feet of the second primary is not yet drilled.  but adi are not responsible for that. the word i hear about nt is not at all negative, the well  may yet give you a nice bonus once the testing results come through. i dont really mind the value of NT coming into the share price, but currently its not a factor in the equation.

Sl is the ducks guts for me too. and looking forward in the coming month or so to hear about the workover rig and the frac crew coming on site. lets see how patient the holders can be on this one..


----------



## chance fate

yeah agree with you hrl.... NT is worth a few cents and wouldn't get too worked up 'til there's proof of commercial potential...offtake is secondary concern i.e. a certainty as demand is so strong and infrastructure close by...  re. SL shallow... just re reading Hartleys report end-06 on ADi web site... they're pretty bullish on them - they also state that testing would take place at a later date if Primary tests proved unsuccessful...  so i'm not losing hope yet....


----------



## maverick11

I'm still sitting, holding, accumulating, while the JVP acquire more land..  

SL is going to be the bee's knees, i agree.  I might order my new M3 in space grey i think.  Oh, some nice news today on NT.  Kind of interesting to see them inferring commerciality before they have even tested.  Those gas kicks must have been fairly substantial and of commercial nature alone.  Although they obviously can't say that to the market without official data.  Now it's a simpy a matter of following the book and bringing in the rig; perforate the casing; fracture the wellbore and let her rip.


----------



## chance fate

oh...yeah...that might be a reason...  they're trying to acquire adjacent acreage....  but if so then they'd need to advise the market of their intention.... and haven't ... so for the time being for me that's ruled out....


----------



## Agentm

they had a significant show according to AZZ in their quarterly report the other day,, 70feet @1000 units.

thats better than elevated gas readings adi posted!!

suddenly they are talking hooking it up as a production well.. bullish.

nice to see you surface again, been digging around the mines again mav?? 

nice to hear your still accumulating, your showing your confidence is back stronger than ever,  i follow your direction there, the sp is excellent value.

just out of interest sake, these readings from from 14,550-14,620 feet, were they wirelined before continuing on? i am trying to remember the sequences..


----------



## chance fate

Response from Alex Forcke.......seems not long to wait for some news....



Thank you for your email and enquiry about our Sugarloaf well.

We are currently awaiting the forward program from the Operator relating
to the design and scope of testing the shallower horizon including the
timing of commencing this test. We will advise the market as soon as
that information is at hand. We anticipate being in a position to make
such a release shortly.

Please note that we are obviously keen to push forward with this test
but at the same time the joint venture wants to ensure that the test is
properly designed and executed to give us the best possible chance of
maximising the results and information from that test.

Regards

Alex Forcke
Executive Chairman

Adelphi Energy Limited
Ground Floor
88 Colin Street
West Perth WA 6005

Tel: 61-8 9263 4600
Fax: 61-8 9263 4688
Mobile: 0417 188 474
Email: 
alex@adelphienergy.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, 11 April 2007 12:02 PM
To: Lauren Doust
Subject: Shareholder Enquiry re. Sugarloaf Shallow Target Well Test
Program

FAO Shareholder Relations Manager Adelphi Energy

Dear Sir/Madam,

Following the Company's announcement concerning the completion of the
well test program on the Sugarloaf Deep Targets, there has been no
announcement concerning the timing of the Shallow Target well tests.
Please could you advise when an announcement will be forthcoming.  If
there is no intention to make such announcement in the near term it
would be useful to understand the reasons why the tests are not being
pursued as a near term priority.

Many thanks for your anticipated response,


----------



## HRL

Nice work Chance.  Fingers crossed for some good news early next week.  The announcement yesterday said the progam was being prepared by the operator and available for review in "next day or two" plus another day or so maybe for jvp to mull it over and give us the verdict.  Wednesday at the very latest I would hope.

I think AgentM was meaning your private msgs (top right of your ASF screen under your login id).


----------



## Agentm

good response from alex, its exactly what i expected..

with regard to the announcement timing HRL, i think yesterdays announcement with AZZ and ADI over the NT well was saying a frac program was being put forward and being fast tracked, i think they are also fast tracking the pipeline connections as they anticipate great flow from NT.. more news to come from there i feel..

SL testing is not in my mind on agenda for some time yet, i get the feeling they are seriously looking at the testing program in view of getting the best possible result. the chalks are traditionally drilled with horizontal wells, and as this well was a test well, designed to test multiple plays, and vertical, its requiring best case decision to be made on the fracing technique. by alex's emails it sounds like they are still positive on the play, but making the best decision on the well as it cost a damn fortune to drill!!  they need to make sure they get a great return on it!

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## HRL

You're totally correct about ADI wanting to take it slow on SL and get it right after the huge expense they went to drilling it... I distinctly remember the posts here when they approved the extra budget to continue drilling and the confidence everyone read into that.  

If you don't mind refreshing my memory (I'm too lazy to go back through all the announcements!) - was the possible 800BCF coming from the secondaries or primaries at SL or was it a combined estimate for both?  I seem to remember the secondaries being where most confidence was and primaries the bonus but might be wrong.


----------



## Agentm

from 2006 annual report


Our short-term challenge is to mature a range of high value prospects for drilling in 2007, *and plans for this are well-advanced*. These prospects are likely to be generated on our existing USA leases as well as from new opportunities from the USA

as for 800 bcf, thats more the figure on the hosston sands..​ 
now if you think the secondaries are likely to be 100bcf as they have predicted and announced, then your best to sell now as your not going to get any more value out of SL on the adi share..​ 
the only new wells adi have planned are the 2 shallow wells for 2007.. couch oil 100 wells for all the oil and gas.. i guess if 100 wells is needed for 100bcf you should be selling today because adi will go broke if they had only 100bcf to recover..​ 
i suggest doing the maths on 100 wells, once your head stops spinning then you start to wonder what on earth is going on in texas..​ 
according to adi the short term focus is mature high value prospects in 2007, well NT aint that, so it leaves only one well they know about before the 2006 annual report was released.. sugarbaby..​ 
as i have stated before, not one director share, not a single major holder accross all jvp's has sold a solitary share. only accumulated more..​ 
i believe they know their stuff and still argue its cant be a coincidence that this is happening accross the boards on all jvp's.. i assume that my investment is still as wise and as secure as it ever was.. surely they all cant be holding for 100bcf?????​ 
all imho and dyor​​​


----------



## Gspot

Go AgentM! 
Well done, no matter what. 
I imagine the party will be huge if you turn out to be right. 
We just wait and wait and wait


----------



## Agentm

i think the club sugarloaf party will be on, and snorkler will have to come back from the uk!!


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> i think the club sugarloaf party will be on, and snorkler will have to come back from the uk!!




Its not much longer to wait now imo - and hopefully some news of dates will be out soon.


I like a good party - and like all of you have been waiting patiently for it to start, got my ticket - come on sugarbaby lets party!


----------



## The Snorkler

yep Im waiting patiently for the well test lie detector.

Ive certainly learnt a lesson in "risk management" on this well. Though I should know by now!


----------



## Agentm

time to get a fine wine and get well and truely chilled out..

gdn get their day on monday, and i hope they played it right, after the hosston sands i certainly know what feeling deflated is like..

NT news must be close, days away adi said this week, so i expect announcements soon there.

i think club sugarloaf will have a cocktail called "patience" on its menu!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

SL such a long wait with no news this must surely be a good sign although it is becoming increasingly frustrating.
NT hopefully some very positive and decisive news will soon be upon us with a firm and definate statement no read between the lines 
SP holding up pretty well and will hopefully rise in the near term with both SL and NT


----------



## Agentm

NT news will be a frac program for the lower wilcox, its already under review and announcements will be made in the mid week report, unless they want to release it earlier, but i see no real need to make it a seperate announcement. Tomorrow we get that data, and they will possibly have a workover rig and frac crew lined up, maybe some of that news will be announced at the same time. 

The aussie JVP's EKA and AUT are getting some action at the moment. 

time to snooze off again.. its basically academic for NT, plug and pay!


----------



## surfingman

AZZ's announcement today nothing new:

Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Ilse-1

Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%

The joint venturers are currently evaluating and commenting on the forward testing program. Once agreement has been reached the program can commence.


----------



## chops_a_must

This company is a joke.

Do they want their mummy to hold their hand as they cross the road? Want to ask permission before they can go to the toilet? Before they can leave the table? 

Christ, it's going to be another three months before they can be bothered writing another three lines on a page by the looks.


----------



## surfingman

I cannot see the benefit to Adelphi of NOT releasing more valuable information to the market on their projects status, I was saying this to myself for a number of weeks ago and still am, sure they have released bits and pieces, but outline in a business like manner to keep investors informed not a jigsaw to piece together on assumptions.


----------



## Agentm

as far as i know, on both SL and NT ADI are not the operator.

i think you may find they are passengers on all the ventures so far..


----------



## chops_a_must

It shouldn't mean squat.

All eventuations should be planned out in advance, and IF they are all reading from the same page, decisions should then be instant or very quick.

It's not difficult, it's just good business practice.


----------



## Ken

Is it fair to say that at some point in time ADI will be a $1 share?

Looking at the charts from all the other gas plays, the movements of ADI have been very similar to that of QGC, NXS, etc.

At current prices is there much hype built into the price?

Is everything dependant on sugarloaf?


----------



## chops_a_must

Ken said:


> Is it fair to say that at some point in time ADI will be a $1 share?
> 
> Looking at the charts from all the other gas plays, the movements of ADI have been very similar to that of QGC, NXS, etc.
> 
> At current prices is there much hype built into the price?
> 
> Is everything dependant on sugarloaf?



The difference is those companies actually have something.


----------



## Agentm

i think if you have any operational issues with TCO and ADI you need to voice them with the operator or ADI directly. I dont know anyone in this forum who is qualified to answer your concerns, but if you feel there are proceedures that are  not to your liking, then they can give you the best answers.

once i had researched the operator on Sugarloaf, i had no issue with accumulating this share, and i keep on doing so. its a free market, and the beauty of investing is that your free to buy or sell for whatever reason you like and whenever you like. currently the share is being tightly held, but i have noticed a lot of volume happening on the EKA side, and no comment from anyone on that! EKAO are at .15 also! interesting value on a share with only one play!


dyor on the share and as far as instant decisions go, i cant think of any company that i have my money with in which i would want it managed and run in that fashion.


----------



## Ken

Reading over the announcements from the 12th of March.

They said they plugged the well due to lack of gas flow at sugarloaf.

So does this mean sugarloaf is no good, or do they have this secondary well to drill and test?

Was that the primary target, which was meant to be the icing on the cake for ADI shareholders?


----------



## tomcat

Reading through the ARC briefing today it was interesting to note Eric talking about the Yemen prospects. He mentions that the alliance has just been awarded the Block 7 and Block 74 which adelphi holds 8.5% in. No mention of timing for drilling in these blocks as i imagine it will be driven by oil searchs agenda.


----------



## wallave

kEN..

That was just the Hostton, the primary target which would have been the massive icing on the cake.  Sugarloaf is not dead and buried.  We are waiting for the decision to be made on the secondary targets where its expected there will be commercial flow.

Just need to be patient, although i'm starting to loose mine a bit with the lack of news regarding the Sugar progress.


----------



## Ken

Speculation is what is holding the price back correct?


----------



## surfingman

Ken said:


> Speculation is what is holding the price back correct?




Strongly agreed, with no figures released on actual quantities of gas SP cannot move too far, hopefully either way.


----------



## Agentm

tomcat,

yemen is not an alliance venture.

arq and adi share blocks in yemen,and arq has a block on its own from a merger with voyager, that is about to be drilled. 

adi is quietly sleeping at the moment. i dont have a problem with it being this quiet, i imagine the NT announcement on a frac program may come out next wednesday, they have already told the market they have commenced negotiations on the pipeline access, so you cant get any more bullish than that.


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> tomcat,
> 
> adi is quietly sleeping at the moment. i dont have a problem with it being this quiet, i imagine the NT announcement on a frac program may come out next wednesday, they have already told the market they have commenced negotiations on the pipeline access, so you cant get any more bullish than that.





I agree Agent, I have contacted ADI and recieved a "quietly confident" response to the potential of both their current wells ............ but I suspect that NT could be a much bigger trump card than we all realise............... These things take time .... Patience will be rewarded imo .............. (still holding)


----------



## Agentm

I have a feeling your right barney on NT, its definately a sleeper, the well had 3 plays and all three have shows, and the last gas shows, as we all know, ended in them stopping the drill. when the second well is drilled they will use a better well and a far better crew!!

no action to the sp as theres nothing the market to react to.. 

next announcement may be next wednesday for NT i feel, otherwise alls quiet on the western front


----------



## yogi-in-oz

Hi folks,

ADI ... expecting 2 positive cycles to bring
us some news, about  26-27042007 ... 

happy days

 paul


----------



## Agentm

thank you paul (which is a great name for a prophet)

i look forward to your great insights coming through!!


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> next announcement may be next wednesday for NT i feel, otherwise alls quiet on the western front





The western front may be mustering a few troups ................ Few nice orders through today ................ Couple of $10,000's and a $15,000 ........... and a few smaller ones ................. hopefully its seatbelt fastening time .......... Good luck all.


----------



## Ken

Lets not get ahead of ourselves.


----------



## Ken

EKA up 11% today. Whether its all related to sugarloaf who knows.
Could be day traders trying to spark some interest.

I am keen to know though.


----------



## barney

Ken said:


> Lets not get ahead of ourselves.




Howdy Ken, Caution is certainly a virtue when dealing with speculative stocks ............ the thing I noticed most today was the lack of "buyer depth", yet the sp still bounced up with some positive buys ............ That simply tells me that current holders are happy with their positions, and unless we have bad news (which I think is unlikely, particularly with NT) the buyers will have to pay a premium if they want to buy any volume of this stock ............... I dont think ADI will be one of those crazy "screamers" where the sp rises exponentially out of control (which is probably a good thing unless you are a good day trader, which I'm not  ), but I think there is a very good chance they will provide medium-long term holders with a generous sp rise  over time ............ all imo and no ramping of any kind intended ............. PS My opinions are based on my communications with the Company.............  I like to think I am a fair judge of character, and I have found ADI management to be conservative, yet positive about their prospects.  If anyone wants confirmation, email them ......... they will reply. Cheers.


----------



## fflintoff

barn,
Are you less optimistic on Sugarloaf secondaries than NT?


----------



## Ken

Barn,
I would have to say I disagree a little with you. ADI halved in such quick time from its all time highs so its not exactly a steady stock at all. 

Announcements will play a massive role in the future of the stock for 1-2 year shareholders. As with every stock subject to drill results.

If production comes on board then we are looking at a different stock completely. But at the moment is it fair to say we are paying 60 cents because there is speculation that they have gas? At the moment ADI is just an explorer with some tenemants. (according to market).

There are no guarantees of cash flow. 

Theres a lot of positive outlooks on the stock and those who hold their nerve will most likely be rewarded.

Just the way I am looking at it.


----------



## barney

fflintoff said:


> barn,
> Are you less optimistic on Sugarloaf secondaries than NT?




Howdy Flint, Not "un" optimistic on SL, Just get the impression that NT is a sure thing whereas SL seems to have been put on the back burner to make way for NT ............ Just a "gut feel" ...... I'll PM you.


Ken, I can't argue that ADI is a spec and all specs are subject to wild fluctuations at times ............... As Agent and others have pointed out on this thread, the gas shows are there to date, but nothing is a sure thing until the gas is in the pipeline and the money is in the bank so to speak .............. The main reason for the big sp drop was obviously the disappointment that the primaries of SL did not give the big windfall that all the speculators were hoping for, so lots bailed out looking for greener pastures ........ human nature at work ........... thats not to say that there is not a lot of gas down there.  Thats why I think ADI will not be a "wild ride" like some specs, but I still think it will be "very productive" ................ I could be totally wrong, but my money is where my mouth is so to speak, so I stand to lose substantially if wrong ............. If that happens, it wont be the first time, and hopefully not the last   All the best.


----------



## Lucky_Country

barney said:


> Howdy Flint, Not "un" optimistic on SL, Just get the impression that NT is a sure thing whereas SL seems to have been put on the back burner to make way for NT ............ Just a "gut feel" ...... I'll PM you.
> 
> 
> Ken, I can't argue that ADI is a spec and all specs are subject to wild fluctuations at times ............... As Agent and others have pointed out on this thread, the gas shows are there to date, but nothing is a sure thing until the gas is in the pipeline and the money is in the bank so to speak .............. The main reason for the big sp drop was obviously the disappointment that the primaries of SL did not give the big windfall that all the speculators were hoping for, so lots bailed out looking for greener pastures ........ human nature at work ........... thats not to say that there is not a lot of gas down there.  Thats why I think ADI will not be a "wild ride" like some specs, but I still think it will be "very productive" ................ I could be totally wrong, but my money is where my mouth is so to speak, so I stand to lose substantially if wrong ............. If that happens, it wont be the first time, and hopefully not the last   All the best.



Barney you say SL has been put on the backburner for NT why would they do that.ADI are not the operators of either well so it should not put a strain on the ADI workforce too run both campaigns at once and do they even have a choice on which well too focus on surely the different parteners on each well make decisions separately.
Not having a go just trying too fathom as much info as possible as ADI announcements regarding there wells dont give much away


----------



## barney

Lucky_Country said:


> Barney you say SL has been put on the backburner for NT why would they do that.ADI are not the operators of either well so it should not put a strain on the ADI workforce too run both campaigns at once and do they even have a choice on which well too focus on surely the different parteners on each well make decisions separately.
> Not having a go just trying too fathom as much info as possible as ADI announcements regarding there wells dont give much away




Howdy IJH,  You are right ............. I'm certainly no authority on ADI and was not trying to lead other punters at all .......... In hindsight the wording was not great when I said SL may be on the "back burner". That could be misconstrued as a negatively leading statement ......... That certainly wasn't my intention; (ADI is my biggest holding ) I was actually trying to emphasise the point that NT imo may be "bigger" than first thought...........  The recent shows on NT were "very interesting" and when they started talking about "pipelines" I thought it was one of the most bullish statements to come from ADI to date.  Thats the main reason I thought NT may prove to be more of a bonus than first envisaged ................ Certainly not discounting SL in the slightest .............. To the contrary ............ (Hope that clears up any confusion and apologies if the wrong vibe was given)................ 

I did email the Co., but I dont think its the right thing to post emails on the general forum site without permission, but it is safe to say that the feedback was positive. ............. I'll take a backseat for now and let those who know a lot more than me talk turkey. Good luck.


----------



## constable

ann out on sugarloaf via eka
nearly 19500 acres secured to all depths
do you think there might be more gas than what theyre letting on


----------



## constable

adi still in pre open ....must be something on nt still to come as other jvs on sl are open??
edit just opened someone forgot to flick the switch!


----------



## chance fate

19500 acres = 79km²...  thats almost 9 x 9 km...  if productive across 28m of shows... that could mean reserves are in the order of several 100's of bcf's....and potentially in a very optimistic case a Tcf or so...  looks good but soooo loooong to wait.....


----------



## chance fate

oh yes and seems very likely the SL delays are due to acreage acquisition and not the well test program....  that's a very good signal....  mind you that'll do nothing for the SP in the short term....


----------



## sam76

I thought it was common knowledge that the SL delays were due to acreage


----------



## chance fate

ha ha ... probably is...  just not at this keyboard....  happy to hold my EKA for a while now though.....  might pick up some more EKA or ADI if the price is right...


----------



## barney

Just my opinion, but unless you needed to money for something else, I can't imagine why anyone would be selling today ............. We now have a time frame from the company, and the land aquisition can only mean positives to me ........... Anyone see it different to me?  I think we will see a little positive price action over the next few days (maybe even this arvo) .......... I wont be complaining ........... Good luck lads (and ladies of course)


----------



## Agentm

maybe they are using the acreage to grow corn?

cant see any downside, market cant see any upside


----------



## chance fate

barney said:


> Just my opinion, but unless you needed to money for something else, I can't imagine why anyone would be selling today ............. We now have a time frame from the company, and the land aquisition can only mean positives to me ........... Anyone see it different to me?  I think we will see a little positive price action over the next few days (maybe even this arvo) .......... I wont be complaining ........... Good luck lads (and ladies of course)




Could jump out - try and make some profit elsewhere in the next couple of months - and then jump back in for roughly the same price .....  if that's a risk you'd be prepared to take on..  otherwise the money's gonna be pretty stagnant for a few months....


----------



## Ken

You either believe the ADI story or you dont.

Unless you're a trader then you're just looking at price action.


----------



## blues

I have been riding ADI since they were 25 cents. I have kept the majority but have traded to be free carried at the moment. They still have activity at New Taiton to come and there was a whisper around at the APPEA conference that there may be action at AC/P32 sooner than many think. I think it is safer to be in than out at the moment.

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

now there is a smart call blues!!

i have been hearing things about the offshore drill,, i am no fan of offshore, and particularily after magnolia, and blues, i guess you didnt have to worry about that as you got in after that, but if coogee knows what it is doing i would be more confident, i am not convinced the lease is brilliant, and  i thought magnolia was the main play.. time will tell and i guess if they have new info to tell the market we will be told before christmas!!


----------



## cicak_kupang

19500  acres, I guess thats how much land you need then for 100 wells!


----------



## INORE

cicak_kupang said:


> 19500  acres, I guess thats how much land you need then for 100 wells!




yeah i was thinking about the 'couch' factor myself, this morning.


----------



## chance fate

100 wells is ridiculous...  100 * $5million each = 500 million....insane...


A couple of nice horizontal wells with a 20 year depletion profile will do me.....


----------



## barney

chance fate said:


> Could jump out - try and make some profit elsewhere in the next couple of months - and then jump back in for roughly the same price .....  if that's a risk you'd be prepared to take on..  otherwise the money's gonna be pretty stagnant for a few months....





Can't argue with your logic CF, .............. Only thing is, if your timing is a bit out, it could end up costing you more than you make putting your money elswhere (depends on how much spare cash you have as well .... I don't have any spare atm   

I'm also not sure whether the sp will stagnate either ........... The traders will probably start to get more interested in this now due to the potential, so on any given day it could spike, and if it does spike, there is no guarantee that the sp will drop back to previous levels ............. 

Basically trading it is a punt (I'm not a good punter, so I'll be happy to watch from the sidelines so to speak) ............ Todays ann re the extra land is probably the most obvious endorsement that the companies involved are on to something that they perceive to be valuable/worth persuing .......... 

Coupled with the results that we already have, I see the whole scenario as being positive and bullish from an investors point of view .............. All just my opinion of course (and I have a vested interest so my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt    Good luck to all holders (and traders ........ no discrimination on my behalf!!..... if SL lives up to expectations then investors and traders alike will both be happy)


----------



## chance fate

yeah agree...  the news does seem strong enough to warrant holding on even in the short term...  especially in ADI's case (I hold EKA) due to NT.....


----------



## maverick11

My posts here have been far and few lately.  Mainly because for me, ADI is a definate sit and hold.  Yesterdays news!...excellent stuff!  We have been confirmed a time frame and an indication of just what sort of play they are dealing with at SL.  Over the last few months the JVP has quietly been aquiring land; obtaining greater access to the reserves while keeping a very tight lid on it.  19,500 Acres is nothing to sneeze at and I suggest we can anticipate something MASSIVE in the near future.

Oh, and there is NT and their other upcoming projects too hehe


----------



## chance fate

Going thru' the implications of the announcement here..... and running the risk of reading too much into it but....  unless there's no financial risk...why would you go to the trouble of acquiring all that extra acreage without testing the shallow targets? You'd have to be very confident about production even with no well test...  anyone know how much the acreage acquisition is costing???


----------



## wallave

I was curious to the costing of the extra land also. It does say the JV's have aquired the extra acerage, from Eka's point of view, they don't have that much spare cash??


----------



## cicak_kupang

If you look at the 4th paragraph of the announcement, the last line of it say's "...19500 acres to date." You could read into it that they are still on the buy up????????, and that the acreage is at all depths, does that include the dead HS?????   Me dunno??


----------



## Agentm

yes to all levels including HS..

yes to buying more..

wallave, last time i spoke to eka they said they were not buying, now it appears they are, i wouldnt  know what cash they have to do this, but the cash position of all jvps is vital to how much carry this play will have on the sp..


----------



## Ken

Interesting times.  The rewards are definitely there for investors to see.

ADI rose to $1 on volume.  There would be a lot of shareholders who paid more than current price.  


ADI definitely got the potential to be one of those stocks you look back on saying why didnt I buy on that weakness.  Has happened with so many stocks I have come across.

Weakness = opportunity if you look back on history you see it all the time with these fast rising stocks.

MTN, SMM, ACB, BPT, AED.  

Even BHP you saw the weakness at 24 bucks then a run up to 30.

Testing lows then setting highs.  Thats the name of the game.

Good luck for those trading ADI on the way down, or holding them on the way up.


----------



## constable

Ken said:


> Interesting times. The rewards are definitely there for investors to see.
> 
> ADI rose to $1 on volume. There would be a lot of shareholders who paid more than current price.
> 
> 
> ADI definitely got the potential to be one of those stocks you look back on saying why didnt I buy on that weakness. Has happened with so many stocks I have come across.
> 
> Weakness = opportunity if you look back on history you see it all the time with these fast rising stocks.
> 
> MTN, SMM, ACB, BPT, AED.
> 
> Even BHP you saw the weakness at 24 bucks then a run up to 30.
> 
> Testing lows then setting highs. Thats the name of the game.
> 
> Good luck for those trading ADI on the way down, or holding them on the way up.




Kenny looks like a typical lag between ann and market reaction. The last ann couldnt be anymore in your face, so im still expecting some upward pressure particularly as any holder should be fairly steadfast in their resolve to see this project thru to production.


----------



## Agentm

i would be staggered if the sp rose much on this, i think the news is not worthy of a massive price spike, there is little data to justify any sp rise like we saw pre the primary being drilled.

until the market actually gets any data from the testing the sp will have trouble reaching great highs..

i expect the nt well may bring a positive sp gain on real testing results, but i have seen stranger things happen on this share.. then i imagine there will be further sp gains if the sl results prove good. 

i cant see short term rises being caused by anything other than supply and demand, i wouldnt be suprised if some holders wouldnt want to wait any longer and perhaps move out, perhaps a sp fall is more likely.. 3 months is a long time to hold a sp on no news!!

all imho and dyor


----------



## Ken

Agent, at some point along the ADI lifespan it will test old highs and I am not game enough to guess when that is.

If you're already a shareholder from the 40 cent or below level, then you wouldnt be too worried.

The volatility will aim to spook a few investors.

Everyone has time on their hands. Some people have less than others.


----------



## constable

Agentm said:


> i would be staggered if the sp rose much on this, i think the news is not worthy of a massive price spike, there is little data to justify any sp rise like we saw pre the primary being drilled.
> 
> until the market actually gets any data from the testing the sp will have trouble reaching great highs..
> 
> i expect the nt well may bring a positive sp gain on real testing results, but i have seen stranger things happen on this share.. then i imagine there will be further sp gains if the sl results prove good.
> 
> i cant see short term rises being caused by anything other than supply and demand, i wouldnt be suprised if some holders wouldnt want to wait any longer and perhaps move out, perhaps a sp fall is more likely.. 3 months is a long time to hold a sp on no news!!
> 
> all imho and dyor




agentm are you serious or you looking to top up? D ) for all the reading between the lines that has gone on in this thread, they (adi and jvs)finally come out and tell the market what everyone has been summising over the last 2 months! Which means only one thing and that is they are sitting on a ****load of gas. Plus you have'nt thrown into the mix.  Now im not throwing caution to the wind (stop losses still apply), but correct me if im wrong, adi is now on a countdown and im of the opinion sellers are going to be calling the shots more often than not!


----------



## chance fate

yeah... it's a long time to wait but reckon there's not gonna be many investors that are going to sell unless they need the cash... thinking of going on holiday for a few weeks between now and July to help pass the time!!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

ADI rose too over $1 just on speculation regards too the HS with no confirmed data 
This announcement I feel adds weight too the speculation on the shallow targets which can only be good for the sp which many of us are holding tightly.
Those that do want in may now have too pay above yesterdays close as NT is also looking positive and could even test its highs anytime soon


----------



## Agentm

we will see how it pans out, and yes i am accumulating..

i dont see $1 on the sp on this news, i think the only real news that will send the sp up will be positive and comprehesive well data.

as i say its all IMHO and dyor, buy at whatever price you want, and from what i have seen there has been plenty of stock on the boards available for up to 10 cents higher and more and no one buying it up. yesterday the greater majority was sold lower than the close price.. i view the short term sp to increase slightly, then over a three month period and stock market corrections, the sp will have difficulty sustaining long term highs,, its just the way i see it, i cant see reasons for price increases and speculators are not going to sit on this stock for 3 months. lets see how it trends out, but if it was going to spike, i think it should have yesterday.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hopefully soon NT wont be speculation we will see some data and hopefully be pleasantly suprised it already seems an almost certainty it will be a producing well so lets see how much production we can get and how it relates too the sp


----------



## chance fate

Agree AgentM...  I was hoping (!) the price will fall to around 48-49 cents - which is where it reached on the back of the sugarloaf shallow discoveries pre deep discovery...   so the extra 10-12 cents has got to be because of NT and the shorter fuse to further exploration drilling on other propsects....  with the 2-3 month gap it's worth keeping watch to pick up whenever/if the price dips....


----------



## Ken

I want to see some directors buying shares.

That would get the price really buzzing I reckon.  

A $500k purchase would be interesting.


----------



## barney

My   worth.  There will probably be a percentage of "impatient" punters who are happy to bail out on slight increases in the sp over the next few weeks or so. There are many reasons why people need to sell shares. With ADI there will be some holders who bought higher than current and will be happy to break even on a rise ............ Some will simply need the money to pay debts ............... Some may have held since early on and will make a nice profit at the current or slightly higher sp, and therefore will be happy to sell if the sp doesn't move quick enough over the next few weeks ............ and some may back themselves to put the money elsewhere for a higher return in the short term as CF pointed out, and hopefully get back in on future sp movements ................... 

From my point of view, I'll try and cover all scenarios ............ I'll continue to hold my current shares .............. I bought a few more yesterday just in case of a spike .............. and if the sp drops over the next few weeks/months I'll try and top up at reasonable prices ............. Not rocket science, but if you believe the company has potential, then you'll tend to buy .......... alternatively you'll sell ...................  I'm kind of leaning towards the "buy" principal, but if punters want to sell it down to 40 cents, I'm sure there will be the odd buyer who might be interested at that price!!


----------



## Agentm

at least arq has the fortitude to call NT and  SL a discovery in their presentation this morning, if the jvp's had the same courage the sp would maybe look different also, great buying opportunities in any case.


----------



## blues

There is a mention in AZZ Weekly Report about NT. Testing program agreed to by JVPs. Drill rig to be moved off site and testing equipment brought in. Unfortunatley more waiting.


----------



## Agentm

the rig can be moved as far as possible from the site, what a disaster that one was


----------



## barney

We could be excused for thinking negative about todays price action, but if you were watching P/Trader carefully, you would have noticed one very keen buyer ............... Fair enough there had to be a keen seller/sellers as well, but that is to be expected considering the 2-3 month time frame on S/L ........... Any one else pick up on the "14" buyer relative to the times bought ........... Probably a broker under instruction, but nevertheless well over $150 grand from what looks like the same punter ............... No sooner had each buy order been filled, than the next order of 40,000 (and 14) was posted ............ Wish I had a loose 150 grand to drop on ADI  2 months out from news ..................... Interesting  .............. I'm just wondering if the keen seller kept offering stock, just how much the keen buyer was willing to take up the stock ................ could be the tip of the iceberg .............. Personally I think the sp will fluctuate/drop more B4 substantial news, but I like what I saw today regardless ............... Then again maybe I'm just seeing something that isn't there :venus: .........then again maybe not :headshake


----------



## Agentm

yogi-in-oz said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ... expecting 2 positive cycles to bring
> us some news, about 26-27042007 ...
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul





now the news was a few days early but it was positive.. 

can yogi tell me when i will be filthy rich???


----------



## tomcat

Yogi, 

Any chance you can do us a medium to long term analysis...I am now also a believer  Looking forward to news on NT and SL...still holding


----------



## Ken

My opinion.

It's going to be a rocky road.
Investors will get shaken off the stock on the bad days and drawn into it on the good days.

If you're looking beyond the short term I think rewards are there.

My gut feeling the trading range will be volatile 60 cents to 40 cents untill the rest of the story unfolds. This will test people. Just my opinion.


----------



## chance fate

.... with you Ken... there's time to burn so trick will be to wait on the side lines with some spare cash and pick up on the low days...  and to resist those impulses.... funny thing is contributors to this thread will probably buy and sell to and from each other without knowing.....  reckon EKA has taken a hammering recently and is pretty much at it's low....  but as i like to say to my mates... given what we know to date it looks like the sp could go either way!


----------



## fflintoff

Update on Adelphi´s web page issued in the last 24 hours.

Significant upside potential to previous reserve estimate of 100bcfe for the shallow horizon. 


"The focus is now on the shallower carbonate formations where the most significant gas shows were encountered during the drilling of the well."


"Sugarloaf Carbonate Prospect
During the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well the joint venture reported a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in Cretaceous age carbonates. 
Since that report, further detailed analysis of the logs has been undertaken by the project Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”) who advises that this possible pay interval is comprised of three zones of porosity which are expected to be tested separately. 
The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to be completed by June/July 2007 at which time testing operations will commence. 
As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths, including the abovementioned carbonate zone, to approximately 19,500 acres (some 80 square kilometres) to date. 
Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate."

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/projects/Proj_Sugarloaf.php


----------



## resourceboom

wow great find freddy,
you'd think that last statement would require a mkt sensitive announcement!! ?? 



fflintoff said:


> Update on Adelphi ´s web page issued in the last 24 hours.
> 
> Significant upside potential to previous reserve estimate of 100bcfe for the shallow horizon.
> 
> 
> "The focus is now on the shallower carbonate formations where the most significant gas shows were encountered during the drilling of the well."
> 
> 
> "Sugarloaf Carbonate Prospect
> During the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well the joint venture reported a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in Cretaceous age carbonates.
> Since that report, further detailed analysis of the logs has been undertaken by the project Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”) who advises that this possible pay interval is comprised of three zones of porosity which are expected to be tested separately.
> The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to be completed by June/July 2007 at which time testing operations will commence.
> As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths, including the abovementioned carbonate zone, to approximately 19,500 acres (some 80 square kilometres) to date.
> Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate."
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/projects/Proj_Sugarloaf.php


----------



## fflintoff

resourceboom,
Spotted by Safiande on the Empyrean thread in England. I like the reference to the acreage relative to the increased reserves.
Also bcfe infers some oil?


----------



## surfingman

fflintoff said:


> resourceboom,
> Spotted by Safiande on the Empyrean thread in England. I like the reference to the acreage relative to the increased reserves.
> Also bcfe infers some oil?




*BCFE* Billions of Cubic Feet Equivalent
This is a gas only measurement.

Their is often oil condensate which comes up with the gas and is separated at the surface, its very possible that oil condensate is in these holes but we will have to wait and see.


----------



## Agentm

the update on the webpage mirrors the sugarloaf release to the market on 24th April 2007..

what is added is the last paragraph.

_Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate._


the news hasnt really changed, it was always openly said the potential reserves may be higher than estimated, but regardless, i cant see any change happening, it may entice a few more numbers of speculative buyers, but ideally we have to wait for the potential reserves to be confirmed with positive test results before some real action will happen.

the use of the term BCFE is based on possibilities of:

_Crude Oil Equivalent Converting gas volumes to the oil equivalent is customarily done on the basis of the heating content or calorific value of the fuel. There are a number of methodologies in common use. Before aggregating, the gas volumes first must be converted to the same temperature and pressure. Common industry gas conversion factors usually range between 1.0 barrel of oil equivalent (boe) = 5.6_
_thousand standard cubic feet of gas (mscf) to 1.0 boe = 6.0 mscf_.​ 
simply put, you have to understand what was written in the webpage is *pure speculation and generalisation*, and was deliberately kept off the mid week report because it would fall foul of the rules if it was presented as a stand alone statement to the market, and to stop any adverse sp reaction because it would be speculation. ADI maintain a professional view on what they release and absolutely dont want speculation on the sp, no one wants to see 40% sp drifts like we see on gdn on a week to week basis and in between the release of reports.  but none the less its encouraging.

again all IMHO and dyor


----------



## resourceboom

Ahh yes, must have had too much plonk last night!! 
I didn't notice the BCFE, as their original estimates were 27BCF mean and 50BCF P10,  but the estimates of condensate of 12mmbbls and 20mmbls would have to be converted for the BCFE?

Anyway, yes I guess its what ADI have been saying pretty much all along that they expect it to towards the upper end of the estimates.


----------



## resourceboom

So if the mean is around 100BCFE, the P10 should be around 200BCFE.
Aldephi's NRI I believe will be around 15%, so they could potentially have 15-30BCFE.  Which valuated at $5M per BCFE would give a sp of .75c to 1.50
This of course would require the assumption of the market to value 1BCFE at $5M, but I believe in the conversions 1BCFE (with condensate) should be valued more highly then 1BCF gas.  (like those that have big MMBOE reserves aren't as valuable as those with big MMBO reserves of the same number)

It also brings us back to a page with leverage to exploration success in an ADI May 2006 presentation with price target of $1 and $1.7 for the shallow(based on StockAnalysis report)


----------



## chance fate

seems reasonable based on original volumes but... given the drilling results i'm wondering whether there's been cause to revise the original volumetric model...  could now be working with a whole new set of P10/50/90's....


----------



## fflintoff

New post from Safiande in London

Safiande - 28 Apr'07 - 10:42 - 37597 of 37597

Agentm,

Agree with your post. The new corporate presentation posted on ADI ´s web site today continues to stress the upside.

• 2 possible shallow wells in 2007

• Mean reserves pre drill 100bcf – 170bcf

• “ could be significantly increased pending a successful flow test “

• Reservoir depth 3800m

• Further leasing initiatives are ongoing beyond 1950 acres

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/snapshot/documents/Adelphi Investor Presentation April 2007.pdf


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> New post from Safiande in London
> 
> Safiande - 28 Apr'07 - 10:42 - 37597 of 37597
> 
> Agentm,
> 
> Agree with your post. The new corporate presentation posted on ADI ´s web site today continues to stress the upside.
> 
> • 2 possible shallow wells in 2007
> 
> • Mean reserves pre drill 100bcf – 170bcf
> 
> • “ could be significantly increased pending a successful flow test “
> 
> • Reservoir depth 3800m
> 
> • Further leasing initiatives are ongoing beyond 1950 acres
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/snapshot/documents/Adelphi Investor Presentation April 2007.pdf





i really feel the adi management is now trying to bring some stability to the sp, the sudden sell down of the share has not been to their liking, so the upbeat news is presented in their website.  

it seems the acerage issue has caused much need for diplomacy and a low key approach to how news is presented to the market. but i must say they have always maintained this approach in any case previously. 

for me i feel NT will be the first thing to spark the sp, should the testing go well and adi become a producer.. sl is months away still, and may not have immediate sp impact.  

Yogi called it, and that guy is a legend...


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hartleys report Dec 06
SL secondarys 12mmb and 27bcf >50cps
NT 40bcf ~30cps
Personally I feel both of these wells have exceeded these expectations which can only mean 1 thing a very good rise in SP.
When results are known we will be around the $3 ps mark imo


----------



## Agentm

i thought the quarterly was not too bad.

yemen has been signed, just needs a presidential stamp. 

indonesia

africa

offshore again next year.

NT about to be flow tested.

SL around the corner..

can help but smile


----------



## fflintoff

Hugely bullish qtrly from AUT on Sugarloaf land - opening page.
Also in the depth of the report they state that exploration potential still exists in the Hosston sands. This was mentioned by agentM a while back.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...archBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=AUT#headlines


----------



## Agentm

i see Adelpi Energy got a nice write up in the Taking Stock section of the Financial Review..

I gather it will create some interest in the share today perhaps.

All news coning out continues to remain on the positive. I stll believe the quarterly report contained many insights into ADI's near and long term future..

DYOR and it wont be long now..


----------



## wallave

Perhaps not Agentm, not much interest in the stock today mate.  A dismal 2000 share have traded so far.
Just have to keep waiting. The good times arn't too far away


----------



## tomcat

Been tightly held in the mid 50's for a while now. Some good news following the upcoming testing at NT may kick it along...I liked the quarterly report yesterday, agree with Agentm, plenty of interesting plays on the horizon...I'm holding for the short (NT), medium (SL), and long (Indonesia / Africa) term


----------



## barney

tomcat said:


> Been tightly held in the mid 50's for a while now. Some good news following the upcoming testing at NT may kick it along...I liked the quarterly report yesterday, agree with Agentm, plenty of interesting plays on the horizon...I'm holding for the short (NT), medium (SL), and long (Indonesia / Africa) term




:iagree:   I agree TC, I'm actually pleasantly surprised that there has been very little "sell off" pressure on ADI .......... To me it indicates that those that hold are serious about waiting for the "good news" ............. Of course if we get a general market correction there may be a few more who "need" to bail out, but, that will present a buying opportunity imo.  I suspect that, (assuming a may-june market correction is only minor in the overall scale of past corrections), that buying opportunities may be few and far between ............. I also suspect, that when the sp starts to rise, the traders might decide to take part, and then there may be a bit of volatility to deal with, .......... but I can handle a bit of "upward" volatility   ............ Basically, the closer we get to testing results, the tighter ADI will be held ............ and if (when) the news is positive who knows what might eventuate ................  OK I'm biased and admit it, but I have a story I want to tell about ADI, but won't be divulging it until the sp hits $2.50 plus ($3.50 + would make the story even better lol...... )


----------



## Agentm

ok.. its time to wake up and smell the roses..

Nt is days away now.. in very short time we have a production well on the books, the first stage of the transition from explorer to producer is now about to happen.

i cant see the sp dropping much more, but i have some reserves inplace for any further bargains should they pass by!!

i hear NT is far better than expected, and the upper zones are still of interest to them. i am not clear on testing in those areas, i believe they may only concentrate on the lower sections this time.. the upper wilcox with its condensate is being ignored for the time beingon this well and not being tested. the production well will be soley on the lower wilcox plays.

adi has plenty in the bank to pay for further wells at Nt and the two horizontal wells at sl, plus a offshore well in australia. in a few months we will be looking at a completely different company. over the coming days and wthen the next weeks i cant see any downside..

lets see how the next few days play out while the sp still doesnt value in the NT well..

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Lucky_Country

Rogar on HC saying the Texas big boys are running the rule over ADI because of  SL sounds exciting not sure on what authority his comments are based on !
Looking forward to the next few months on the adi ride


----------



## skyliner

Howdy,

hope all is well down under. thought i'd let those who are interested in the sugarloaf gas fields know that your on a winner with ADI. 

A number of Gas companies are putting offers on the table to be involved in the project. 

ADI is on the hit list for a number of major Texas gas companies. 

Producing companies have got wind of it and there is a bidding war going on over here.

Everything for ADI is going to come out in the next 3 months.  


roger


----------



## Sean K

skyliner said:


> Howdy,
> 
> hope all is well down under. thought i'd let those who are interested in the sugarloaf gas fields know that your on a winner with ADI.
> 
> A number of Gas companies are putting offers on the table to be involved in the project.
> 
> ADI is on the hit list for a number of major Texas gas companies.
> 
> Producing companies have got wind of it and there is a bidding war going on over here.
> 
> Everything for ADI is going to come out in the next 3 months.
> 
> roger



Hi roger, Interested to know how you know this? Can you please expand on who the bidding companies are? Sounds very interesting. Cheers! kennas


----------



## fflintoff

Eme annuals just published. Reservoir porosity
of between 4 -10 % in the shallow formation.

Sugarloaf Hosston Project

"This attractive farmin agreement with Texas Crude Energy Inc. was announced by
Empyrean on 6th April 2006 and mentioned briefly in the last Annual Report. The
Farmin Agreement by which Empyrean would be earning a 7.5% interest before
payout (reverting then to a 6% working interest) involved participating in the
drilling and testing of a 21,000 feet well. The primary objective was the
Cretaceous Hosston sandstone reservoir and the four way closure over an area of
at least 20,000 acres was estimated to have an upside potential of several
trillion cubic feet of gas. The mean reserves potential had been calculated at
800 bcf of gas.

Drilling commenced on 17th August 2006. First significant gas shows were
recorded at 11,895' in the secondary objective, the Cretaceous chalk and
limestone. These shows continued to 12,240' where they abruptly ended.
Preliminary log estimates show 92' gross column of gas with a reservoir porosity
of between 4 -10 %.

As planned, 9 5/8" casing was set at 14,480' and a 7 5/8" liner cemented at
17,000'.

Significant gas shows reappeared at 18,190' following the interception of the
primary objective, the Hosston sandstones at 17,950'. These gas shows continued
intermittently throughout the sequence until the total depth (T.D.) of 20,896'
was reached on the 28th November 2006. The logs run at TD show a net pay of
between 90 - 140' over an interval 1,700' (19,700' - 18,000') using a 6%
porosity cut-off. The most prospective sand was 17' thick showing a calculated
porosity of 9%.

Based on these log results and gas shows during drilling, the operator proposed
setting pipe at 19,000'. Perforations over 10 separate intervals between 19'630'
- 18'973' in the lower Hosston sands were successfully executed but no gas flow
resulted.

The well was cemented up to 18,900', and perforations were then made over 7
higher intervals between 18,199' - 18,689' where significant gas peaks had been
encountered during drilling. These fine-grained sandstone intervals were then
subjected to a fraccing procedure. On 12th March it was announced that the
fraccing had achieved only minor gas recovery at a rate too small to measure.
There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow,
despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of
sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The
deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could
also have played a role in impeding gas flow.

The next operation will be to test the much shallower Cretaceous chalk and
limestone which provided good gas shows and encouraging electric log response. A
definitive testing programme is being finalised and it is anticipated that
operations will recommence in the near future.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=20450009&epic=EME


----------



## Agentm

i like to say i have heard this before a few times, and a few other rumours as well. its allvery posotive in any case. lets see what transpires.


----------



## Dukey

fflintoff said:


> Eme annuals just published. Reservoir porosity
> of between 4 -10 % in the shallow formation.
> 
> Sugarloaf Hosston Project
> 
> "This attractive farmin agreement with Texas Crude Energy Inc. was announced by
> Empyrean on 6th April 2006 and mentioned briefly in the last Annual Report. The
> Farmin Agreement by which Empyrean would be earning a 7.5% interest before
> payout (reverting then to a 6% working interest) involved participating in the
> drilling and testing of a 21,000 feet well. The primary objective was the
> Cretaceous Hosston sandstone reservoir and the four way closure over an area of
> at least 20,000 acres was estimated to have an upside potential of several
> trillion cubic feet of gas. The mean reserves potential had been calculated at
> 800 bcf of gas.
> 
> Drilling commenced on 17th August 2006. First significant gas shows were
> recorded at 11,895' in the secondary objective, the Cretaceous chalk and
> limestone. These shows continued to 12,240' where they abruptly ended.
> Preliminary log estimates show 92' gross column of gas with a reservoir porosity
> of between 4 -10 %.
> 
> As planned, 9 5/8" casing was set at 14,480' and a 7 5/8" liner cemented at
> 17,000'.
> 
> Significant gas shows reappeared at 18,190' following the interception of the
> primary objective, the Hosston sandstones at 17,950'. These gas shows continued
> intermittently throughout the sequence until the total depth (T.D.) of 20,896'
> was reached on the 28th November 2006. The logs run at TD show a net pay of
> between 90 - 140' over an interval 1,700' (19,700' - 18,000') using a 6%
> porosity cut-off. The most prospective sand was 17' thick showing a calculated
> porosity of 9%.
> 
> Based on these log results and gas shows during drilling, the operator proposed
> setting pipe at 19,000'. Perforations over 10 separate intervals between 19'630'
> - 18'973' in the lower Hosston sands were successfully executed but no gas flow
> resulted.
> 
> The well was cemented up to 18,900', and perforations were then made over 7
> higher intervals between 18,199' - 18,689' where significant gas peaks had been
> encountered during drilling. These fine-grained sandstone intervals were then
> subjected to a fraccing procedure. On 12th March it was announced that the
> fraccing had achieved only minor gas recovery at a rate too small to measure.
> There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow,
> despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of
> sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The
> deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could
> also have played a role in impeding gas flow.
> 
> The next operation will be to test the much shallower Cretaceous chalk and
> limestone which provided good gas shows and encouraging electric log response. A
> definitive testing programme is being finalised and it is anticipated that
> operations will recommence in the near future.
> 
> http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=20450009&epic=EME




Thanks FF. - So - what are they saying exactly??
To me... reading that it kind of sounds like they think there might be life in the Hosston yet - sometime down the track - with some different drilling, fracing techniques used - possibly???
Is that your understanding of what EME are saying there - or am I just dreaming??


----------



## Agentm

*Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Ilse-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%
*Our latest report from the operator is that the drilling equipment is still being demobilised and the lease is being restored and prepared for testing. Several days of heavy rain has slowed the progress. *Completion equipment and pipeline construction is underway. After the pipeline is tied in the testing will begin*

i like the way they just build a pipeline and tap it in, then frac and flow test.. lets just say i find it impossible to rule out NT as a commercial well.


----------



## Sean K

skyliner said:


> Howdy,
> 
> hope all is well down under. thought i'd let those who are interested in the sugarloaf gas fields know that your on a winner with ADI.
> 
> A number of Gas companies are putting offers on the table to be involved in the project.
> 
> ADI is on the hit list for a number of major Texas gas companies.
> 
> Producing companies have got wind of it and there is a bidding war going on over here.
> 
> Everything for ADI is going to come out in the next 3 months.
> 
> roger






kennas said:


> Hi roger, Interested to know how you know this? Can you please expand on who the bidding companies are? Sounds very interesting. Cheers! kennas




skyliner, any more on this? 

ASF has a policy that information provided (or rumours stated), need to be substantiated in some way. Thanks, kennas


----------



## Agentm

it was posted on HC, and i think the above post is a copy of that one.

to be frank, i think the fact that all JVP's are now announcing the aquisition of massive acerage for the secondaries leaves little doubt the couch oil announcement from sept 06 was spot on. I understand that the play has attracted large amounts of interest in texas, and its understandable when you see a lot of competition for acerage being the major focus for the jvp's at SL, and the testing of the well as being a lesser priority. all the oil industry players will have a close watch on the karnes county right now. 


i cant imagine adi entertaining any such notion, and until i hear it or see an announcement on the asx, i just think its a rumour, and unsustantiated, it may be true that other oil majors are looking at it, but noone has mentioned selling out at all in any quarterlies. SL is certainly changing every day, and the JVP's are very keen to keep things under wraps and progress a set way. its no secret they have way underestimated the reserves in the secondaries, and by the way they are getting into the leases it must be very impressive indeed.


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> it was posted on HC, and i think the above post is a copy of that one.
> 
> to be frank, i think the fact that all JVP's are now announcing the aquisition of massive acerage for the secondaries leaves little doubt the couch oil announcement from sept 06 was spot on. I understand that the play has attracted large amounts of interest in texas, and its understandable when you see a lot of competition for acerage being the major focus for the jvp's at SL, and the testing of the well as being a lesser priority. all the oil industry players will have a close watch on the karnes county right now.
> 
> 
> i cant imagine adi entertaining any such notion, and until i hear it or see an announcement on the asx, i just think its a rumour, and unsustantiated, it may be true that other oil majors are looking at it, but noone has mentioned selling out at all in any quarterlies. SL is certainly changing every day, and the JVP's are very keen to keep things under wraps and progress a set way. its no secret they have way underestimated the reserves in the secondaries, and by the way they are getting into the leases it must be very impressive indeed.



Thanks M. Just wanted to sort that, as it can be hard to sort the wheat from the chaffe with some of the info floating from HC to here. Cheers!


----------



## Agentm

dukey,

with all the rumours and announcements from AZZ i think what you post is extremely interesting.

i think you will find a few things will happen at SL, one is the secondary, it is an entirely seperate play, and may well be many 100's of bcf rather than the very  conservative figures given, and as the acerage keeps getting bigger and bigger, the bcf's must also.


then EME announces a remarkable thing about the hosston sands, that after they further analysed the flow tests they say the mud weight could have been a factor in the low flow rates, so not exactly discounting the play and leaving an open ended question about the play. if you look at the EKA presentation you see what direction the primary goes, and its clear they wont tell you what direction the secondary goes, but with them buying more acerage, its obvious it must be in a different direction to the primary play.. the well was designed to test all zones, it was never designed to be a commercial well as its primary objective, many things can happen at SL now, the well can have still lots of different things done to it in the future once testing is completed.

each announcement seems to fill the picture in little by little..


----------



## skyliner

hi sorry guys for the confusion, it was me (skyliner) copying a post from hc from a poster called rogar for all to read here as i thought it was interesting if true.


----------



## Agentm

i was given the new web address for couch oil.. see if you can find any reference to SL in it.. i havent yet.. all news from them is still off site and by email only..


http://www.cboil.net




I see the new presentation on ADI's site put the secondary at 170 BCF, which is still by all accounts is way way short of the expected reserves after the acerage is signed up and the testing is done. 

NT is 40 BCF to 80 BCF.


we could be sitting on a minimum of 250BCF and not factoring in any of the oil, and the share price is at a staggering .60

up until a few weeks ago, the sugarloaf play was undoubtedly being kept very very low key, and for the reasons of getting further acerage accross ALL DEPTHS on the sugarloaf leases. its amazing that they find it important to let you know that. but the austin secondary play was a very late addition in the wells history, and it seems that now the JVP's have got a fairly comfortable position, they are suddenly talking up the sugarloaf secondary.

from the very ultra conservative 40bcf to the conservative 170 BCF and not taking into account maybe 72mmb, and still no testing being done on the well which by all accounts will deliver even further clarity in respect to reserves which all jvp's have openly admitted are under the estimates so far projected.

i would say that still today, the share is without doubt brilliant value. for adi to post 170 BCF says to me they wouldnt do so unless they were absolutely certain it couldnt be remotely overestimated, and totally safe as an conservative estimate.

anyone see the same picture developing?

all IMHO and dyor


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm,
The 170bcfe was pre drill upside. Pre drill mean was 100bcfe.
Post drill the partners are far more bullish but without putting out a number, not least AUT in their report this week:-

“Our principle focus over the past several months has been to acquire a significant land position prior to testing the possible pay zone in our Sugarloaf-1 well. Management holds high expectations for the successful exploitation of this valuable land position. We consider the testing scheduled at our Sugarloaf project (and in due course at our Ipanema and Longhorn plays) offers the potential for a significant re-rating of this play and hence Aurora’s value.” 

“Having secured a material land position, our objective is now to establish a large reserve base on this acreage through drilling and geological and geophysical assessment. This strategy has proved very effective for a number of junior and mid-size US oil and gas companies in resource plays such as the Barnett, Fayetteville and Woodford Shales and the conventional Austin Chalk. The technical information available to us to date gives us considerable optimism that our play could prove more attractive than these large successfully producing formations.”

“A successful test of one or more of the possible pay zones in the Sugarloaf 1 Well would give confidence in the potential for significant recoverable reserves in this project.”


Also ADI mentioned Hydrocarbons in their report i.e. not just gas :-

"At the Sugarloaf Prospect, preparations are being made to undertake an extensive flow test of the shallower Cretaceous age carbonate formation where a potential pay zone for hydrocarbons of some 92 feet had been identified based on well log data and gas shows during drilling last year."


----------



## Agentm

i thought i was the only person out there interested in sugarloaf,, 

i see the use of hydrocarbons confirms the broker reports and other reports of condensate.

i am convinced the play is exactly as large as AUT is comparing it to, and possibly larger.

so it takes a few days for the market to wake up and smell the roses, but its out there, the secondaries are not a minor play, but potentially significantly larger than the primary. i believe tcf is more likely based on the aut announcement. 

time to research some more tonight i see.


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> i thought i was the only person out there interested in sugarloaf,,
> 
> i see the use of hydrocarbons confirms the broker reports and other reports of condensate.
> 
> i am convinced the play is exactly as large as AUT is comparing it to, and possibly larger.
> 
> so it takes a few days for the market to wake up and smell the roses, but its out there, the secondaries are not a minor play, but potentially significantly larger than the primary. i believe tcf is more likely based on the aut announcement.
> 
> time to research some more tonight i see.




You are definitely not the only one interested Agent ............  Not much buying pressure atm, but selling is almost non existent as well. It feels like a spring being wound up .............. Failing a market correction, I'll be surprised if this gets much under 60 cents from here on in ................. I agree that the "vibe" is we are onto something special ............... Worst case scenario as I see  it is that, even if S/L doesn't provide the immediate success we are all hoping for, the JV's seem so convinced of the "eventual" success, (as proven by the additional land aquisitions), that it will only be a matter of time/patience before the big payday (and that is the worst case) ........... The best case is of course that S/L (and NT) quickly becomes commercial creating company/shareholder wealth ........... they then drill some more wells and tap into that "primary" target from another angle and access what they seem pretty convinced is down there ................. Maybe I'm wearing rose coloured glasses, but I get the feeling that not too far down the track we'll all be saying why didn't we buy more ADI when it was only 60 cents .......... Just wish I had a bit more spare cash   ................ (Still holding, and accumulating in small parcels as finances permit.............. all just imo, cause I am a biased punter


----------



## constable

the jvs all looking healthy again and all looking to gap up on open.
Sugarloaf it seems is finally giving them all a bit of backbone particularly eka which has found its feet.


----------



## Agentm

its great to see the jvp's are being bought up again,, not many new sellers coming on the boards, and i cant blame anyone for holding, this stock is being extremely closely held..


i cant see the logic in selling..

three very important announcements to come.

First will be NT, and ADI is then a producer.

Second will be Sugarloaf. 

Third the alliances project in africa, its expected soon. 

Along with indonesia, and yemen being approved in the next 60 days. if you feel the share is worth what it is today and your selling, i guess it must mean that none of the projects look promising.

I cant for the life of me see any downside in anything adi is currently involved with. 

exciting days ahead, and the coming 60 days is going to see some truely astounding company making announcements i feel.. I have to say i am extremely upbeat on sugarloaf, the more you look at and read the announcements, the things each JVP is putting forward, and the absolute magnitude of the play, i really cannot see anywhere where you can get any negative sentiment towards ADI and its projects.

all imho and seriously dyor while you can


----------



## Ken

agentm,

We all appreciate the research you put into ADI and it gives a lot of information that many of other investors can not find. We are still dealing with a speculative share at the minute. So if your looking for negatives, I would say the fact that ADI doesnt have any cash flow is a negative. If things dont go to plan, and there are some negative drill results then that would be no good for holders.

We have no guarantees here.

Speculation is a negative factor in my eyes.


----------



## Agentm

ADI as far as i am concerned was never a producer, its about to be in the very near term with NT, the well is being hooked up to the pipeline as we speak, it will be fraced then flow tested and fully hooked up after that. obviously it cant be declared a production well until after the testing, but the processes in play are very different to what you normally do in a wildcat well, but more like what you do on a production well. speculation? yes, but based on very sound reasoning.

NT is no company maker, it will not be insignificant,  but as a producing well it will allow cash flow to be injected into many projects on the go.

Sugarloaf is now no longer a case of just being a secondary 40bcf play, and if your buying up 80 square kilometers of leases,(*and remember this, and think about it context of what it must mean, they are buying the leases across all depths!!)* and paying the big dollars to hold them, then you better be very certain that your onto something. I dont by any means underestimate the value of sugarloaf, and its not speculation anymore when a JVP announces something like this.

This strategy has proved very effective for a number of junior and mid-size US oil and gas companies in resource plays such as the Barnett, Fayetteville and Woodford Shales and the conventional Austin Chalk. *The technical information available to us to date gives us considerable optimism that our play could prove more attractive than these large successfully producing formations*


I dont see much speculation, i see forward planning, lots and lots of it, clever lease buying and very expensive ones too, i see a future in adi that isnt about drilling a well and trying to locate a play, i see two wells and two plays.

i guess the ones selling are seeing it different, but i dont and continue to do my research and continue to see announcements confirming things and not leaving much doubt.

each does their own research and draws their own conclusions, i recommend you do the same and clearly understand the implications of 80 sqaure kilometes of leases in texas is nothing to sneeze at, and they have not finished buying them up as yet.


----------



## surfingman

Has everyone checked seller depths of late for ADI? getting very tight indeed with only 261 000 shares on offer  

I guess we wait and see what they really have....

When are you expecting the announcement Agentm? a trading halt may be the course of action do you think?


----------



## Agentm

if you look at it now the depth is amazingly thin..

i think the NT well announcement will have to come today or tomorrow, it wont require a trading halt.


----------



## constable

Grouse day for jvs -
                           aut up 5.43%
                           eka up 6.82%
                           adi up 11.48%
 A coincidence or sugarloaf price action. Just funny how everyone piled on today when the sensitive infos been out there a while now.


----------



## tomcat

constable said:


> Grouse day for jvs -
> aut up 5.43%
> eka up 6.82%
> adi up 11.48%
> A coincidence or sugarloaf price action. Just funny how everyone piled on today when the sensitive infos been out there a while now.




Could also be due to the NT testing just around the corner...but it normally takes the market a few days to digest information of the like that has been released by the JVP's on SL.


----------



## Agentm

the interest is there across the jvp's which says its the SL factor, and a touch more in adi for the NT factor perhaps?  or maybe the adi share is more attractive than the other jvp's on the number of ongoing prospects and projects..

i cant see any short or long term down side and next week we have NT news all over the place.. looks like great days ahead..


----------



## Ken

gday,

I found this through a search engine. looks like its a list of all the sugar loaf wells ever drilled, and there success rates.


If anyone can make anything of it let me know

Dont really know how to read it.


http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/qualified.ogw4.FieldWells?f_fc=1000148029

I also found this link too. looks like south east sugar loaf oil/gas production:

http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/oil.ogf4.IDProdQuery?FieldNumber=1000148030


----------



## Agentm

Ken said:


> gday,
> 
> I found this through a search engine. looks like its a list of all the sugar loaf wells ever drilled, and there success rates.
> 
> 
> If anyone can make anything of it let me know
> 
> Dont really know how to read it.
> 
> 
> http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/qualified.ogw4.FieldWells?f_fc=1000148029
> 
> I also found this link too. looks like south east sugar loaf oil/gas production:
> 
> http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/oil.ogf4.IDProdQuery?FieldNumber=1000148030





happy to help Ken, your in the wrong place, wrong state.. 

you have to leave kansas and head for ole texas.. pm me if you want more info


----------



## Lucky_Country

Thought we may have heard some definative news on NT by now ?
Anyone know the hold up surely not more rain


----------



## Agentm

last week azz announced delays due to rain, i cant see any reason to doubt them, so based on that i expect news should be in the midweekly report from them as to how close the pipeline is to the well. As soon as its connected they will frac test and make it a production well.


----------



## Serpie

Info on NT is in the AZZ AGM report. Just released on ASX. 
Looks like NT should be on line within a couple of weeks, with a possible NT2 pencilled in for Q4.


----------



## Agentm

interesting:

The New Taiton project was finally drilled with the Ilse-1 well reaching a depth of 17,000 feet, with very strong gas and condensate shows within the targeted Wilcox reservoirs. We are eagerly anticipating the production testing of this well which should commence within a few days.​ 

• High gas readings and interpreted
log pay in upper and middle Wilcox
• Testing underway shortly​



looks fine to me.. oct - dec 07 isle 2.​ 
says to me azz are bullish,, lets see how adi present it.. ​​


----------



## tomcat

I think the SP is primed for a bit of a run on the back of some positive news from NT...could be the start of it tomorrow if the weekly report from AZZ is upbeat...Anyone know how long the testing is likely to take once it starts?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Flow testing seems too be taking forever.
NT must be close too confiming what exactly they have got with NT2 well must surely be targetting the lower formation that they had too stop drilling.
SL well how long is a piece of string but will be worth the wait I hope


----------



## Agentm

i would have thought only matter of days into a week, but others like maverick would have a better idea..

i expected adi would have announced the promised frac test by now, azz have made it no secret they want to drill again at this site, it has attracted no interest on this forum, so obviously the potential of nt being a success and ongoing well development is not sparking any interest with holders, for me its proof the adi managemnt have selected a great well and are about to become producers. i think the cashflow will help significantly and assist in the future when having to go to the market to fund Sl and the african project..

anyway, not much interest in adi by the looks, but i see exceptional value in the share still.. i remain holding on this one..


----------



## daeff

First time on board here but I think ADI management are keeping everyhting under wraps............... they are onto something and if ADI comes off with cash flow for ADI then we are seriously away..... do ADI need to raise capital for a successful SL?  that is then the question.....

News is now everyhting


----------



## Ken

I believe ADI has money in the bank. Over 10 million.

Its an exploration company with a number of plays.

Short term everyone wants sugarloaf to be a success because that would put it on the map.

But there are also a number of other exploration programs going on.

Its a matter of delivering for ADI.


----------



## yogi-in-oz

Hi folks,

ADI ..... since the March 2007 equinox, we have seen ADI lift
off its lows, then move sideways,  since  the highs at the 
end of March 2007.

Resistance over the past few days have put a ceiling on ADI's
move and our time cycle analysis indicates that, this month 
(May 07) is likely to be mostly negative:

      May 2007

     11052007 ..... negative news expected here.

     15052007 ..... another difficult cycle expected, at this time.

     21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ... 

     29051007 ..... positive news expected here

=====

     June 2007

     05062007 ..... minor cycle ... finance-related ???

21-24062007 ..... positive light on ADI ... as two significant 
and positive cycles come into play ... 

=====

     July 2007

13-16072007 ..... a significant and positive cycle here ... finance
 ... note the price on this day.

     23072007 ..... minor cycle here

=====

August 2007

03-07082007 ..... minor news early in this period, with a negative 
                  reaction, as another negative time cycle,
                  comes out to play.


10-13082007 ..... finances ??? 
              ... is price the same as  13-16072007 ??

17-20082007 ..... significant and positive news expected here

22-23082007 ..... positive spotlight on ADI

=====

September 2007

27082007-to-03092007 ... a VERY NEGATIVE cycle could trigger 
                     a big  downmove, here ... 

     05092007 ... minor news ???

  21-24092007  ... minor

     27092007  ... 2 positive cycles should bring some news,
      triggering  an aggressive rally.    Note price.   

=====

October 2007

   05-08102007  ... significant and positive ... finance-related ???

   ... is price the same as  13-16072007 and/or 10-13082007 ... ???

      23102007 ... minor and positive light on ADI

      24102007 ... minor news??? ... same price as 27092007 ???

 More later.

happy days

 paul



=====


----------



## Agentm

cant agree on some of the stuff this time yogi, but you seem to be correct most of the time..

i saw this on HC, gerkin is a poster there and went to WA to the AZZ  meetings, he had some one on one with management, and i repost the news on NT..  confirms all i have heard and researched on NT..

_New Taiton - They dont seem concerned that the well didnt reach the anticipated total depth.They remain confident of a good commercial outcome.As per tentative forecast a follow up well due for end of year.
Well design may be altered to address issues in first well.
(no indication of field size BCF)
_



i know the second well will be drilled in an way to ovbercome the massive pressure problems in the lower wilcox.. i also see azz are locking in a rigslot later this year for that well..  so for me i chalk up one commercial well and a development well at NT.. i am firmly of the blief there is condensate also on this play, and look forward to the testing of the well and any news on the attractiveness of the secondary targets.


----------



## surfingman

AZZ Announcement:

Pipeline construction has been ongoing and our latest report from the operator is that the pipeline will be complete this week and testing should commence thereafter.


----------



## blues

AZZ Operational Update (New Taiton)

Pipeline construction has been ongoing and our latest report from operator is that the pipeline will be complete this week and testing should commence thereafter.

AZZ management seem better at keeping share holders informed then ADI management.

Cheers


----------



## HRL

A full 5mins better.  Perhaps we should all move our money over to AZZ then.

These announcements are funny and frustrating all at the same time.  It's like a competition to see how little they can say in each report.


----------



## Ken

I think everything ADI is up to has been well published.

People reading into ADI's business may be doing a little bit too much. searching for theories, and scenarios.

As a shareholder, ADI has already given plenty of advice on there 2007 action.


As the announcement says if you have any questions call the director.


----------



## tomcat

NT another week away, still the SP seems to be handling it ok today. It really is like pulling teeth with this stock. Hope Yogi was looking at the wrong stars with his comments as I would love to see good news on NT...no offense Yogi...you were pretty much spot on last time around.


----------



## Agentm

AZZ has announced NT as a gas discovery, and are very bullish on the well, ADI are waiting and seeing for the test results before making waves on the well.  

I am of the view AZZ have less to lose if they make a bad call on it being a discovery before testing is complete, and it is true the well has to be piped in for testing and cannot be flared. I also believe AZZ is not reckless in calling it a discovery early, they seem to operate well and have a good reputation and a great management team. 

Once the perforating, frac and flow testing is done ADI are certainly going to announce any results immediately, so its now only days away in term of timeframe before we get some results.

 As i said before i am very confident ADI have every reason to expect great results with the NT well.

EME had some activity overnight and the aussie partners are also getting good volumes..


----------



## Lucky_Country

EKA raising capital for SL with more too come sounds good too me.
Hopefully a sign of confidence in being commercial


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country.. brilliant post!!

you know this announcement has to let the cat out of the bag..

_Funds raised from these issues will be applied towards the Sugarloaf project_ 

if there is any doubt left about the sugarloaf prospect i would love to hear it


----------



## chance fate

I'm pretty keen about the ann too AgentM....  after today's small but upwaqrd burst on EKA SP ...  i reckon there's confidence brewing in the SL project..  good luck... and as a holder getting more comfy that this one will deliver


----------



## Agentm

apologies for the loud font, it seems to change when you cut and paste..

i see EKA as doing what it has to, raising capital to develop the sugarloaf play, somehow i dont think they will have any trouble filling the order,

all positive news, and confirmation that sl is worth a good look..


----------



## Agentm

ok, its obvious to me no one gets it,,

I have to say if EKA is being told to raise that sort of capital when it already had $1.22 mill in the bank, then i am opening up some debate as to what type of crop these guys are going to grow on this 80 square kilometers of land.. 

so here are my question? 

if EKA is expecting to spend $3 mill on SL in the near term, as part of its 12% farm in.. what does it add up to that the JVP's will spend combined?

what type of crop are the jvp's growing over there? as its obvious by the sp that no one thinks they are going to do anything with the cash on developing SL as the sp is not factoring in something here!!

AZZ have called Nt a discovery and pencilled in a possible well nov 07. so if NT at 40bcf is .30 to the sp.. $12.24 mill in the bank.. .12 to the sp
then is the value of all other leases, future cash earnings from NT, yemen, offshore and SL, and anything in it is therefor .24??

so if your selling today are you saying SL is only 30bcf...?? 

why are the jvps saying 170bcf and why are they throwing massive resources and time and cash into what the market believes is 30bcf..??

does anyone believe what couch oil continues to post on his website about sl?


time to go back to sleep now


----------



## Lucky_Country

AgentM I agree totally with your assesment of the situation.EKA need 3 million for there share of development and testing I presume.
Now is that 3million for for the first well, acerage and pipeline or the whole of the area I know what I feel just the first 1.
So say 3million for 12% development cost on first well which means 25 million for whole of the well construction and pipeline and acerage acqusition. 
So 19000 acres, pipeline and well construction cost 25 million can anyone tell me whether they can judge the reserves by the cost as shown above


----------



## fflintoff

*Big News from England - SL a goer*

Empyrean Energy Increased interest -Sugarloaf


 RNS Number:3591W
Empyrean Energy PLC
10 May 2007



                              Empyrean Energy PLC

                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

   Increased interest in the Sugarloaf Project Area, ("Sugarloaf") Texas USA
   -------------------------------------------------------------------------

* New Agreement signed with Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") covering a
  sixteen (16) well program over Block A and Block B
* New working interest on any well in the 16 well program in respect
  of Block A
* Working Interest increased from 6% to 18% on any wells in the 16  
  well program operated by TCEI in respect of Block B

Empyrean has entered an Oil & Gas Exploration And Development
Agreement with TCEI to participate in a new sixteen (16) well
program covering two projects, "Block A" and "Block B".

In Block A, TCEI has an interest through an Operating Agreement with
a major international oil and gas company ("Block A Operator")(name
undisclosed for confidentiality purposes and to preserve and protect
competitive advantage). In Block B, TCEI is the operator and
Empyrean already has a 6% working interest in this Block via a
previous agreement and its participation in the drilling of the
Sugarloaf-1 well.

The new agreement covers the next sixteen (16) wells to be drilled
on either Block A and / or Block B. The agreement provides for
Empyrean to pay 12.5% of costs to first production to earn a working
interest of 7.5% in wells drilled on Block A and to pay 20% of costs
to first production to earn a working interest of 12% in wells
drilled on Block B. Empyrean's agreement covering a pre-existing 6%
working interest in Block B remains unchanged and is in addition to
this new agreement.

The Block A Operator has drilled a first exploratory test well on
Block A and this well is a discovery well which it has been reported
flowed gas and associated condensate on test. This exploratory test
well does not form part of the 16 well program. On Block B, during
the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well Empyrean previously reported to
the market on the 29th September 2006 a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of
possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in
Cretaceous age carbonates. Preparations are underway for testing to
be carried out on these possible pay zones.

It is estimated that wells in this program will have a total cost in the
order of US$5million each. Empyrean's agreement with TCEI is structured
on a well by well basis with the right to proceed or withdraw at any
stage. If Empyrean withdraws then wells earned to that date are
protected. It is also understood that the Block A Operator is preparing
for drilling to commence on the next well in Block A within the next 2
months.

A further update will be provided as soon as confirmation of the date for
spudding the first well in this sixteen well program is advised by TCEI,
along with testing dates for the Sugarloaf-1 well.

Commenting today, Empyrean's Commercial Director, Tom Kelly said "Today's
agreement with Texas Crude Energy allows Empyrean to increase its interest in
the Sugarloaf Project Area and in particular the shallow potential pay zones to
be tested in the Sugarloaf-1 well. We look forward to testing these chalk zones
in the Sugarloaf-1 well and to the commencement of the sixteen well program".

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


For further information:
Laurence Read/ Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6605/ +44 (0) 7979955923

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746

Rod Venables/ Cecil Jordaan
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600


----------



## Agentm

now at last the penny dropped...

we see that eka and all the jvp's are not considering sl as just a minor play, we are talking major plays here.. 

enjoy the good times if your a holder!!


----------



## chance fate

...  wow...   that looks like plans for a fairly large field..  can anybodu else interpet this statement "The new agreement covers the next sixteen (16) wells to be drilled on either Block A and / or Block B."..  what's puzzling me is the "or Block B" as this would mean that the SL project may require 16 wells for field development - that's $A100m in drilling costs...  perhaps the seismic is showing something that just isn't available to the market...  makes the EKA capital raising seem insignificant at A$2m...  2% of the drilling costs...  something isn't adding up...


----------



## tomcat

I'm also curious about Emppyrean's increase in working interest on Block B which is where SL is from 6% to 18% on all future wells. Who do you think has cut down their working interest on the new wells?? Texas Crude? Hope ADI's has boosted its interests as well


----------



## Broadside

chance fate said:


> ...  wow...   that looks like plans for a fairly large field..  can anybodu else interpet this statement "The new agreement covers the next sixteen (16) wells to be drilled on either Block A and / or Block B."..  what's puzzling me is the "or Block B" as this would mean that the SL project may require 16 wells for field development - that's $A100m in drilling costs...  perhaps the seismic is showing something that just isn't available to the market...  makes the EKA capital raising seem insignificant at A$2m...  2% of the drilling costs...  something isn't adding up...




I imagine 16 wells would be a staggered process so there would be capital raising along the way and also income from the early wells to fund the later wells so not all the capital is reqd up front.  Anyway it is massive news, a productive gas (oil?) field plain and simple.  I wonder if we will get to Couchy's 100 well prediction.  Nothing he has said way back last September has yet been proven wrong.  But yes, if EME increases to 18% someone is decreasing...?


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> now at last the penny dropped...
> 
> we see that eka and all the jvp's are not considering sl as just a minor play, we are talking major plays here..
> 
> enjoy the good times if your a holder!!





Agree totally Agent,  There is some serious interest by the players involved for sure .................... I suspect that what I summised in an earlier post (re the primaries, which did not quite eventuate in the S/L well), are still well and truly in play, but will probably end up being "productive" from another well down the track (what do you guys think?) ................... There may be a bit of patience required for the big payday, but in a way, I kind of like the fact that the serious "holders" will be rewarded with patience ............... not quite so much spiking by day traders as the good news "filters" in ................ That aside, there are so many short term positives to keep the sp ticking over anyway ............. I continue to buy small parcels ............ This share could end up being very tightly held not too far down the track .......... If I were a new "investor", I certainly wouldn't wait too long b4 I purchased a slice of the possible action .............. All imo of course, but this could end up being a big story down the track, and hindsight is a cheap commodity which earns you zero!!  All the best to holders.


----------



## chance fate

...  re-read it..   prep is undwerway to commence drilling in Block A within the next 2 months...  that leaves 15 ...  i recall somewhere in an announcement that production could already be taking place from the shallower levels...  is this Block A and is that the major O&G player unnamed in the ann...??  will dig around to see what i can recover.....


----------



## chance fate

...no ... sorry it was blurb in several reprots including strachan's stockanalysis which says that recent scouting info. from nearby weels having drilled the shallower formations have increased the potential from the shallower targets....  the schematic in ADI's annual rep 2006 shows an area of 'red' in Wilcox and below...  that must be what was meant...


----------



## chance fate

...based on the EKA $A2m raising, holding 12.5% of project, there's enough for 2 wells... as per ADI's forward plan in a recent presentation....


----------



## Agentm

only here to help a little

couch gave this out early dec 2006 

PENNY DROPPING YET???????????????????????????

_We have drilling activity also going on west of Brownwood and North of Abilene. 

As exploration manager for Oil2 Holdings, we hit our first major 21,000’ well. 

Each year we have drilled a major well. The Hosston well proved up a 2 TCF project covering 26,000 acres. 

In 2004 we drilled Lake Boeuf, an 18,000’ well and found marginal reserves. 

In 2005 we drill another potential very large reserve well, South Deep Lake at 19,000’ and found marginal reserves. 

So we hope Sugar Loaf is our first major home run. Those deep wells are extremely costly though …. With substantial cost overruns._


----------



## Ken

Gas plays are making a recovery in my opinion.

ARQ, COE, NXS, are other that have gained some ground of late,  its a busy period for a lot of companies.  

This is how these stocks work don't they.... go up, go down, holding can pay great rewards to the brave.


----------



## Agentm

_The Block A Operator has drilled a first exploratory test well on
Block A and this well is a discovery well which it has been reported
flowed gas and associated condensate on test_

the key to it all..  eka let you know about this last year.. its what made me move on this,, its there, all you have to read it and understand it,,

lets see if anyone gets it..


----------



## Lucky_Country

ADI should be tightly held from now on if it already isnt that is, I cant imagine selling my shares in ADI for some time and I wont be able too understand anyone who does as they miss out anytime with NT or SL .
SL is becoming a more and more positive play with every piece of info given from whatever feasable source put the jigsaw together and get the complete picture.
Too all long terms we will celerbrate together


----------



## Sniffer

About a year before SL spud, the first of three wells was taping an adjacent gas field prospect.  This well was being completed about the same time the juniors began acquiring additional interest in SL and were writing stuff like.....” there are several shallower targets which, based on scouting information related to recent nearby drilling results at similar depths, have now emerged as being potentially highly attractive.”  This first well this adjacent field produces about 500MCFD and 60blls/d.  Most recently an international oil/gas company (same operator as first well) has filed a permit to drill the 3rd well in this prospect (~12,000ft horizontal). Could this be the Block A well?  The timing/location could just be coincidence but this field/well is located about 4 miles firm SL.


----------



## Agentm

interesting..  but its quiet clear that they say only one well has been drilled not 3. there are several fields in the vicinty.. which field are you refering to?

its going to seem mighty strange if the JVP's here dont announce to the asx whats happening at SL.. the scope and size of the EME announcement must require some form of clarification..

if it doesnt then speculation and rumour is going to flourish..

its great days ahead for all holders, NT news must be about to break, and SL is confirmed as a discovery.. 

one well to be drilled they say.. very soon.. 

all falling into place


----------



## nioka

ADI and ground hog day????
I've been out of action for the last six weeks and out of contact with the share trading and ASF. I've just logged on to get updates. Nothing much seems to have changed. NT and Sugarloaf are supposed to be about to make us a fortune. While I have been away most of my other shares had bounded ahead ADI and AUT have been in a state of stagnation. ?????????????????:


----------



## Agentm

it possibly because the market in australia has no idea about the wells...

none of the JVP's have made any comment on the 16 wells nor about the sugarloaf wells plans, nor the plans for a well in block a over the next 60 days???

for me as an investor, its extremely dissappointing that the market is not allowed to be given the same information that the jVP in the uk has given its investors..

i have no idea why it isnt being announced, but anyone selling today could be in an extreme disadvantage for not having known about the future of sugarloaf and the upcoming well in 60 days..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## nioka

nioka said:


> ADI and ground hog day????
> I've been out of action for the last six weeks and out of contact with the share trading and ASF. I've just logged on to get updates. Nothing much seems to have changed. NT and Sugarloaf are supposed to be about to make us a fortune. While I have been away most of my other shares had bounded ahead ADI and AUT have been in a state of stagnation. ?????????????????:




Maybe I spoke too soon. Up 13% today. Could be the start of an interesting period ? or should I cut and run while the ink is green?


----------



## Ken

nioka.

Its up 57% since the sell off...

Its not dead and buried....


Maybe look at things in a different light.

For the person who bought at 50 cents.


----------



## Broadside

nioka said:


> Maybe I spoke too soon. Up 13% today. Could be the start of an interesting period ? or should I cut and run while the ink is green?




stale bulls will provide a lot of the seller volume in the next couple of weeks but personally I have been in both ADI and EKA since pre-drilling and now is the moment for these stocks to shine, I am not selling a single share.  No advice intended and if you're making a profit and choose to take it, good luck to you and well done on the trade.


----------



## HOMER J

ADI buyers seem to be finally catching on, but EKA and AUT arent doing anything. Grabbed some more ADI today and yesterday, plus some more eka. should be an exciting few months.


----------



## Broadside

HOMER J said:


> ADI buyers seem to be finally catching on, but EKA and AUT arent doing anything. Grabbed some more ADI today and yesterday, plus some more eka. should be an exciting few months.




HomerJ I think EKA has had such a turbulent ride that it may be a case of once bitten twice shy for some investors and they will need a little more coaxing (in the form of more news from Aussie partners) before it runs.


----------



## HOMER J

Broadside said:


> HomerJ I think EKA has had such a turbulent ride that it may be a case of once bitten twice shy for some investors and they will need a little more coaxing (in the form of more news from Aussie partners) before it runs.




yes agree, ADI is by far the more stable stock so its understandable that it moves first. still more than happy to hold both  its ben a long wait but it will be worth it imo....


----------



## tomcat

Thats exactly what I was just thinking  

I'm holding for the big announcements and actually wish I had some more spare cash to invest...good luck all...Thanks to agentm for all his comments as well!


----------



## Agentm

hey its not me.. i stopped buying in a few weeks ago..   

i was hoping for some NT news today myself... the eme thing yesterday was a very pleasant suprise, to know a major oil company in the US is right there along side us on this play, no wonder the sp is flying...

i like the sugarloaf prospect, its always shown a lot of promise,, couch oil has had faith and kept being bullish, eme is being bullish, and EKA had to go to the market to raise capital solely for the SL play..all very very bullish.. i think some clever buying is happening right now..


----------



## kevro

I'm back in today and was surprised I was able to without some form of announcement or trading halt alerting the masses before open. Been watching from the sidelines for a while and been very close but the EME announcement in London was the clincher. In at 68c average.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Good too see some action this is not speculation but based on what is now common knowledge 16 wells in SL.
What intrests me is wether ADI will be playing a part in block A as I am in the understanding (please correct me if i'm wrong) that is a seperate holding to the jv block B bit unsure on that one.


----------



## Agentm

welcome back kevro..

exciting days ahead.. NT has not even been fully tested,, and we have a major oil company along side adi on this massive play..

looks like they dont care what the results of sugarloaf were, they are happy to schedule a 16 well program over the leases and go for it.. 

can you imagine how smooth the transition will be with a major involved, speed of drilling, resources, pipemlines, equipment, personnel, this is starting to make my head spin..

happy days alright.. this is an absolute winner..


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> hey its not me.. i stopped buying in a few weeks ago..
> 
> i was hoping for some NT news today myself... the eme thing yesterday was a very pleasant suprise, to know a major oil company in the US is right there along side us on this play, no wonder the sp is flying...
> 
> i like the sugarloaf prospect, its always shown a lot of promise,, couch oil has had faith and kept being bullish, eme is being bullish, and EKA had to go to the market to raise capital solely for the SL play..all very very bullish.. i think some clever buying is happening right now..





Speaking of clever buying ............. I remember watching the price action back on 23rd April ......... and commented on the few ten and fifteen thousand dollar orders that went through that day at around 57-58 cents ............. Now that was clever!!   (That might have been you Agent


----------



## Lert

Its good that things are starting to happen now. I've been holding my 61c shares for ages now.. I'ts interesting that ARC share price is not moving considering they have approx 30% share in ADI..

Good luck chaps.


----------



## Caliente

hi - i am quite confused as to the state of play up at NT/SL even after reading the above posts. Could someone give me a quick 30 second summary!

What I'm getting is that we have a major on board and that there will be more drilling, some 16 new holes.

Thanks again,
-Cali


----------



## Lucky_Country

Can see a late rally happening this arvo with players keen too lock in before the weekend with NT anytime around the corner dont wanna miss out on that either .
Gallia #1 Horelica #2 ring any bells or am I barking up the wrong tree


----------



## sting

I wouldnt be suprised if a please explain is not issued this arvo.. we all know how good this is an why it is going up 15 cents this morning alone but with no ann from ADI to back it up... will be interesting to see what response they give

semper ubi sub ubi


----------



## kevro

sting said:


> I wouldnt be suprised if a please explain is not issued this arvo.. we all know how good this is an why it is going up 15 cents this morning alone but with no ann from ADI to back it up... will be interesting to see what response they give
> 
> semper ubi sub ubi




Hi all, just called ADI about the EME announcement. They did'nt know anything about the EME announcement until they started getting phone calls from shareholders this morning. Needless to say they are not impressed and are hoping to not get a ticket.

Kevro


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> hey its not me.. i stopped buying in a few weeks ago..




Oh dear. 

I thought ADI was great buying when it was still in the 80s and 90s? I thought you were a long term investor not a trader...

Or does this explain why you were so luke warm on ADI not so long ago? Because you had been getting out whilst propping it up, and then when wanting to get back in, downplaying ADI's prospects.

And this is along side the fact that this thing gets pushed around on small volumes, so it is basically people on forums that are moving it...



kevro said:


> Hi all, just called ADI about the EME announcement. They did'nt know anything about the EME announcement until they started getting phone calls from shareholders this morning. Needless to say they are not impressed and are hoping to not get a ticket.
> 
> Kevro




And in the end, that just shows you the quality of the company doesn't it? It's that kind of stuff that should be reported.


----------



## Agentm

nice to know eme is not considering the other jvp's in this.. game on there i should say!!

caliente.. 

it sounds like your getting the idea.. 16 wells, plenty of action, the first will be in the other block with the oil major involved.. 

the real good news is that the initial wirelines and sampling has given them more than enough information, and obviously confirmed what they suspected about the size of the play, since then they have forward planned 16 wells and got the smaller players like eka to get some funds..

eme has decided to go solo and announce it all. leaving the australian JVP's completely perplexed.. we have a jvp doing what it wants when it wants and not at all in the interests of the others.. pretty bad in terms of how things are done in the industry, that sort of stuff really tarnishes reputations..

its unusal to deliberately go against the JVP's in ventures and put them on the spot like this, so i would hate to be on the tail end of the calls in the UK when these guys arrive at work.. but eme obviously has their motives to do this and thats their business..

the big news is that Sl is absolutely commercial and a whole development program has been announced and blindsided the jvp's in australia.. so the market here has the edge to get some cheap shares whilst shareholders selling are oblivious to whats happening to the leases in the future,, a great trading opportunity is happening and many are taking advantage..

the sp has not factored in 170bcf that adi last reported.. somehow its not possible to think in terms of 170 bcf anymore, another embarrisment as adi have only just announced that!! 

so if 16 wells are going in, it has to be multi tcf.. so cheap shares on the boards and a new twist with a jvp going solo in terms of announcements and not running with the other jvp's anymore in terms of cooperation and planning..  and how much oil must there be?? too many wells for that much acerage on gas alone??

for those who get it they are buying, for those selling, they quite possibly have no idea about the future prospects of their share.. so they are getting fleeced..  happy days for the buyers..

did i miss anything??


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> Oh dear.
> 
> I thought ADI was great buying when it was still in the 80s and 90s? I thought you were a long term investor not a trader...
> 
> Or does this explain why you were so luke warm on ADI not so long ago? Because you had been getting out whilst propping it up, and then when wanting to get back in, downplaying ADI's prospects.
> 
> And this is along side the fact that this thing gets pushed around on small volumes, so it is basically people on forums that are moving it...
> 
> 
> 
> And in the end, that just shows you the quality of the company doesn't it? It's that kind of stuff that should be reported.




agentm has remained bullish throughout chops and good luck to him as last night's announcement is entirely consistent with his message all along

hard to see how one could negatively construe last night's announcement in London


----------



## Agentm

chops 

i am an investor, i have purchased from .24 to .80

so what? i liked the hosston play and backed it in the .80's.. my business, my loss, my profit, my decisions.. i am not complaining??

i have personal investments and self managed super, i take profit with my super, as i have giudelines there with it.. and did so with adi, it wasnt easy as i was bullish on the sands.. but i kept to my regulations and protected my investing.. 

sounds odd but i was taking profit on one side (super) and buying on the other.. 

anyway it isnt a big deal for me to buy shares in adi, i had no idea i had to answer to other posters about it.. 

sorry its offending you..


----------



## surfingman

Agentm said:


> chops
> 
> i am an investor, i have purchased from .24 to .80
> 
> so what? i liked the hosston play and backed it in the .80's.. my business, my loss, my profit, my decisions.. i am not complaining??
> 
> i have personal investments and self managed super, i take profit with my super, as i have giudelines there with it.. and did so with adi, it wasnt easy as i was bullish on the sands.. but i kept to my regulations and protected my investing..
> 
> sounds odd but i was taking profit on one side (super) and buying on the other..
> 
> anyway it isnt a big deal for me to buy shares in adi, i had no idea i had to answer to other posters about it..
> 
> sorry its offending you..




Hey Agent M,

No need for apologies I don't think, you are stating the facts on a gas and possibly oil play which could have an extremely large upside, you have put more time and research into ADI possibly than anyone on this forum. You more than anyone deserves to have a win out of ADI.


----------



## Ken

I take my hat off to agentM.

Has helped out with number of questions regarding a few stocks I have discussed with him.

Not pissing in his pocket but he is the reason I made 50% on two stocks in the past 2 weeks.

The opportunity is there to take his info as you wish.

Call it luck call it what you want.

AgentM has been a fan of ADI since the beginning.


----------



## Agentm

thanks guys, i am just going to continue on..  

i just checked my buy orders at commsec it shows 13 buy orders no sells, on my super there ar 7 buys and 1 sell..!!! 

apparently i am a bigtime trader..  i cant understand it as i always thought i was an investor as i have accumulating my holdings all over the place..

i saw the ones when magnolia happened, and remember buying in a week before they ann the big dry hole off shore..

thats O&G explorers for you..  its high risk high reward..

glad your doing well on the shares ken.. i wish i could have today the paper value that adi gave me pre the hosston sands!!  

nice and interesting last two days in adi history,, the adi management dont feel 16 wells on the leases is worth a mention, yet the sp reflected a different story.. and eme became a rogue jvp..


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:


> thanks guys, i am just going to continue on..
> 
> i just checked my buy orders at commsec it shows 13 buy orders no sells, on my super there ar 7 buys and 1 sell..!!!
> 
> apparently i am a bigtime trader..  i cant understand it as i always thought i was an investor as i have accumulating my holdings all over the place..
> 
> i saw the ones when magnolia happened, and remember buying in a week before they ann the big dry hole off shore..
> 
> thats O&G explorers for you..  its high risk high reward..
> 
> glad your doing well on the shares ken.. i wish i could have today the paper value that adi gave me pre the hosston sands!!
> 
> nice and interesting last two days in adi history,, the adi management dont feel 16 wells on the leases is worth a mention, yet the sp reflected a different story.. and eme became a rogue jvp..




Given that EME has "broken rank" how do you see this playing out?  

EKA went nowhere fast today, I can't say I am all that surprised but at least there was a little volume for those wanting out, which will probably give it a clearer run later on.  (I added the EKA comment to reach the 100 character criterion)


----------



## nioka

I have followed Agentm and ADI for months now and have never doubted the genuine and positive slant on ADI, Sugarloaf in particular. He has maintained all along that it was a proposition on the secondary alone. He deserves congratulations for maintaining the faith. I have been in from the start but have traded ADI for AUT and back and forth depending on their relative value and now hold a 2 to 1 ratio in favour of AUT. (my earlier posts will confirm this)
Considered selling down today but the posts today say hold on a little while yet.  
Aussie Stock Forums proves it's worth again.


----------



## Agentm

eme must have carefully considered its position before breaking rank and running solo, its reasonings are entirely up to their md's to justify, i would say the australian jvp's are possibly justifiably upset to have this done to them, and in my view its still possible that some holders could be selling today and in the future and have no idea about the eme announcements, the eme announcement says wells are planned across both leases, 

i can understand why adi and the jvp's are showing in their own way that they are not supporting eme on this and turning their backs to eme today, and by doing so are also not bringing clarity to the fantastic news..  

in my view, all jvp's should have had equal benifit from an announcement like that that really does concern the whole scope of the play and its future development.. 

i guess you always hope that the jvp's would act in accordance with the interests of all concerned, but you have to understand when you do something like this the industry notices.. i am sure arq would be equally upset as would aut and eka.. no director would have expected this, its just very unfortunate..  i cant imagine what its going to be like in joint meetings and having the confidence in the planning when the integrity of the jvp's is being treated this way, you would have to watch what you say and who you say it to....

you know yogi may have been right, this may be the negative news he talked about??

adi will act with professionalism and obviously not outwardly show any disharmony, its not good form to do so. as difficult as eme has made it, i believe alex will deal with this and in the future they will have to be casting a careful eye at eme on all levels and at all times, as i say, its unfortunate.. 

but that aside, i feel the news was amazing, its not supported by the jvp's here and the silence is a sure sign things that this was very unwelcome..

the next announcement from adi i still feel will be NT.. then perhaps further news on SL, but with this sort of news out the speculation on the share is now entirely possible, so we may see a different dynamic on the share for a while until the results start to flow in..

all IMHO and dyor


----------



## Broadside

if the other JVP's do feel shafted is it because EME has increased its exposure at their expense?  the detail is what confuses me, looking closely it is all shades of grey, backing away the big picture is very clear that Sugarloaf will be a stunning success, which is the most important thing.  

I would love to see a clarifying announcement from the Aussie partners as to where we all now stand.

Have a good weekend AgentM and everyone else and thanks for all your work thus far.


----------



## Agentm

i dont think anyone would feel shafted by what eme did, we cant assume they have spite on that level. thats more childish than anything,, i think it decays trust and relationships, which usually are important factors in successful outcomes..

its just not done this way i feel.. 

as i say, good on them for achieving what they did, but the bigger picture is also important..

lets see what transpires..


----------



## Ken

Anyone buying into EME?

Aussie dollar is pretty good isnt it...

Not the worst idea.

Anyone looked at EME as an investment?


----------



## fflintoff

Broadside said:


> if the other JVP's do feel shafted is it because EME has increased its exposure at their expense?  the detail is what confuses me, looking closely it is all shades of grey, backing away the big picture is very clear that Sugarloaf will be a stunning success, which is the most important thing.
> 
> I would love to see a clarifying announcement from the Aussie partners as to where we all now stand.
> 
> Have a good weekend AgentM and everyone else and thanks for all your work thus far.




Broady,
Safiande on the EME thread has confirmation yesterdaythat the extra 12% for EME has come from TCIE ´s 41.5% so hasn ´t really shafted the JVPs. This of course is Block B where the SL appraisal well is located. There is a lower farm in for EME on Block A.

*******************************************

Safiande - 10 May'07 - 19:10 - 39116 of 39190  edit


All in Eol,
I have managed to confirm that the extra farm in has come from TCEI, as discussed earlier with agentm & which was kinda obvious following EKA ´s placing yesterday. The rest is uber sensitive.
A major will only be interested in say 100bcf absolute minimum imho


----------



## surfingman

Broadside said:


> if the other JVP's do feel shafted is it because EME has increased its exposure at their expense?  the detail is what confuses me, looking closely it is all shades of grey, backing away the big picture is very clear that Sugarloaf will be a stunning success, which is the most important thing.
> 
> I would love to see a clarifying announcement from the Aussie partners as to where we all now stand.
> 
> Have a good weekend AgentM and everyone else and thanks for all your work thus far.




I have been very curious about this whole grey thing myself, what % have ADI got in block A and B future wells? thats what is worrying me at the moment. 

Why would they choose not too release to market if all is great? Because of Land acquirements, yes but I still cant see the sense in not announcing from a business prospective, value for the investor is the primary business goal by the text book. 

Fair enough don't announce to its tested and further info on sizes its certain, but a future potential drilling program?????

I have 99% confidence in this play its the 1% which is making me nervous....


----------



## Agentm

i'll have a crack at answering that.. and this is all imho and dyor ok!

adi have 20% diluting of B block wells..

adi has no interest or obligations on A block as far as we know todate.. 

A block is EME 12% TCE inc and others 38% and i assume 50% by major oil co(now these figures are guesswork except for eme)

agree entirely on second part,, great news and we all should be filled in, not all shareholders read forums and many are taking advantage i see by yesterdays activity on the buy side..

agree on your point on future drilling, as the next well about to be drilled on block A, and is actually a horizontally drilled infill well, so it will confirm the play from both sides, and will be of significant financial advantage to adi and its shareholders changing the prospective resources, i believe, into contingent resources, and the infill will possibly even allow the calculations to start working out the future P2 P3  side of things.. again this is in my opinion. this cant be done without the figures from the flow testing..

i disagree with 99% figure surfingman, you have way underestimated this  lets go with something more realistic.. 

i am 100% certain on the entire play, and i am a convert on the couch's 2tcf proclomation in dec 06, and i also believe it is accurate still today.. and i also believe its possible it could go higher..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Lucky_Country

WOW Just did the maths on a find of 2 tcf for the sp of ADI and I was pleasantly suprised its quite amazing too be honest.
There will always be an element of doubt in my mind until the resource estimate is proven but let me say my confidence is at an all time high and if it pans out we will be rewarded.
With the figures being banded about you can see why they are playing there close too there chests and would not be happy with EME breaking there silence on the plans especially with deals still being done


----------



## Agentm

you can see whats happening,, i have no certanty of whats there, i can only go by couch.. he is a partner in block b, and why shouldnt i believe him, he has been right all along hasnt he???? amd yes, i want someone to seriously answer if couch oil is right or not in their view, as i feel he has never put a foot wrong. 

so 800bcf is $4 to the share price.. if we have 1.5 tcf then we are in the $8 area.. 

speculation for sure....

so even if we are 500 bcf we are still $3 area... and the shareholders who dont read forums were, and still will be selling having no clue..

IMHO i believe with what EME announced, it has changed things, with a major oil comapany sharing in this massive play, you have to assume the 500bcf target is completely plausable.. again IMHO i feel the shares on all jvp's are absolutely brilliant value as a speculative share, and thats what adi, and the australian JVP's absolutely and specifically never wanted on their shares..

lets see how this one plays out.. all i know is today i will not sell , and i wont be selling for 12 months or more, i want to see if the majoe oil comapany wants to buy out adi's share..

all speculation IMHO.. and speculate on YOR


----------



## Lucky_Country

800bcf of gas >$4.50 per share plus any condensate on top of that.
2TCF of gas plus as couchy said they need 100 wells just for the oil.
The mind is working overtime at the momment plus NT just think we are on a winner here.
I got my suspicions on the oil major involved and boy they are big and would swallow ADI with the blink of an eye and if they want ADI they will get them


----------



## chance fate

... yeah... if you do the maths, 80km² * 30m depth * 5%porosity convert to surface volume = approx 1.5Tcf...  even at half that size I'll be quite happy...  only risk seems to be a tech one on frac success...  but compared to the pre-drill situation the risk return equation does look to be improving....  only got limited experience of the run up in sp pre-testing and that was EKA on the turkish oil..  but using that for comparison could it be expected that there'd be quite some movement on this one... ??  the difficult question is going to be whether to accept the test risk and wait for the results...  there are bound to be those that do not want to take the risk and will be content with a fraction of the potential...  and there will be those that do want to take the risk, don't currently hold, and will buy in just prior to the results...


----------



## Ken

Gday,

ARQ energy is going to have the inside running on ADI.

if it is going to be as big as we think, a rise in ARQ's stake in ADI will happen surely.

ARQ and ADI would be talking no doubt in my opinion as ARQ is a major shareholder 30%.

So if anyone is primed to gobble up ADI wouldn't ARQ just increase its stake?


----------



## surfingman

Ken said:


> Gday,
> So if anyone is primed to gobble up ADI wouldn't ARQ just increase its stake?




That would be determined by the price of the takeover bid, it couldn't be done on easily the shares are closely held at this stage and if the potential is revealed to be as expected a premium price would have to be paid.

ADI shares outstanding = 104,958,662
Top 20 share holders =  62,025,351


----------



## Agentm

the major shareholders in adi are not inclined to be in for a takeover unless the price is right, and there has been talk before of this, but i wouldnt think its on the agenda currently, arq has some runs to make in canning first, and 30% of adi in sl will be nice for them, $1 to their sp easy.. 

and they have to contend with me blocking it 

but in all seriousness, NT news has to break any minute, thats going to be brilliant,, then SL speculators will perhaps continue to push the price pre test results..

exciting days to come.. and we dont yet know what mr couch's oil is worth to the sp.. all imho and dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

I think ARQ are quite hapy with their stake in ADI could even see ADI buying into the canning basin drilling program when NT and SL are announced successfull.
Dont think the Americans would like a small Aussie company having a 20% stake in one of their big gas fields in the US thats where the takeover or even SL buyout may come from but it could be some time off yet if ever that is.
When the revenues start coming in from NT and SL what will they do with the cash they already have an aggressive exploration program dividends buyback even more aggressive exploration? Surely they will well and truly cover their development costs with ease.


----------



## jballs

Interesting thread re. ADI, its future sp. and the prospects of a takeover. But what about EKA? Fewer shares, smaller stake in SL and no other prospective interests at the moment.
Going on the recent placement , they intend to hang in there; with the prospect of getting about $8 million next March from options conversion, they should be well-placed, provided SL results are satisfactory.
But could the bigger partners in SL, such as ADI, make life difficult for a minnow like EKA with  its current market cap. of only $11million?


----------



## drasicjazz

i m planning to get into this one but
there is one other one EKA...
so my question is do i buy EKA and ADI
or just ADI or just EKA
does anyone has a bit of advice on this ridle


----------



## Agentm

i cant advise you,, its not my role to, this forum is more on the discussion side of things, i dont feel qualified to be able to advise..  thats the way i see it..

i wouldnt waiver for a second from adi,, its very obvious i am extremely adi biased, and i dont have the same views of eka/aut management regardless of their credentials.. but there are plenty who are backing their share out there,,

i know investors whom are eagerly buying all the aussie jvp's currently,, and i dont think twice about it nor say anything except good luck..

just add up 2tcf on all the jvp's ad then add a whole stack more for the oil.. then take your pick!!!!


----------



## drasicjazz

hmmmm
i could expect an aswer like this
i know nobody can give me an anwser that rules out one or the other 
but i still had to give it a shot
i m a young trader and i m on a plan to buy one stock each week
so the option for this week is wds, adi and eka
three nice picks to me but i can't makeup my mind...

always trouble with the young one hey 
thanks anyway
and for all the forumlovers- writhers out there
thanks for this fantasic forum!


----------



## chance fate

drasicjazz said:


> hmmmm
> i could expect an aswer like this
> i know nobody can give me an anwser that rules out one or the other
> but i still had to give it a shot
> i m a young trader and i m on a plan to buy one stock each week
> so the option for this week is wds, adi and eka
> three nice picks to me but i can't makeup my mind...
> 
> always trouble with the young one hey
> thanks anyway
> and for all the forumlovers- writhers out there
> thanks for this fantasic forum!




Hello drasicjazz...  you may wish to consider the potential for further activity beyond the current sugarloaf project...  in that respect if i had my time again i'd be in ADI, I hold EKA - but believe Sugarloaf could be the launchpad for that company's further development, ...  so am happy to hold nevertheless...


----------



## maverick11

I've been away lately and get back to see there's been a bit of a shake-up... the cat has been let out of the bag to some extent.  It will be interesting to see how the aussie JVP play this one out - and I agree with the others - i think you need a PHD to interpret the EME announcement ha!!  Sitting on a massive quantity of ADI shares here, so good times ahead


----------



## Agentm

welcome back..

the best part of the announcement is the confirmation of condensate, which adds a whole new dimension to this play. Having an major oil company sitting there all this time and them having proclaimed *The third-party operator of Block A has confirmed that a test well has reported flowed gas and associated condensate, and is preparing to drill the next well within 2 months* means we are able to varify the couch story as correct. 

it cant just be that a major oil company is not being this secretive for no apparent reason, there must be enormous credibility to both the legitimacy of the play and the size, as these majors are not going to laying low as long as they have unless they have some idea about the potential of this play.

i certainly have been adding again.. i like the idae of NT news any minute and seeing the couch statement still holding up.. it was something i could never remove off my list, it definately gave me the reasons research harder, and to hold as long as i did and to further accumulate.


----------



## sting

To clarify whats where in this situation.. the sugarloaf well is in block B and ADI ONLY has an interest in the Block B area not in block A.

Given this tho .. that since the area's are ajoining we can hope and assume that the resource doesnt stop at the fenceline

semper ubi sub ubi


----------



## chance fate

...Hi AgentM...  have been following your comments with some interest...  and agree that if the reservoir is connected across blocks.. the 'major'  in Block A (assumed to be knowing this) may have been laying low ..so if it is a common reservoir presumably there'd have to be an agreement between participants in both blocks on the rate of drainage to ensure each get it's own fair entitlement... 16 wells in block A could possibly depressurise the whole field before Block B holders get a good return....


----------



## Agentm

hello chance..

hope you did well with gdn, its something we have luckily not had here at adi on the share so far, there was the friday spike which has not repeated and we are now awaiting the NT news, They had the pipeline finished last week, so the reporting from the flow test must be commencing in the near term,, i did invest on adi on the basis of either SL secondary or NT to be a success, a nice announcement confirming flow rates would be very nice..

AZZ both friday and today has attracted some nice turnover, i wonder if news is filtering? 

SL is now "exposed" so to speak, the jvp's have made it abundantly clear that nothing about the size and nature of the secondary was to  announced until acerage was secure, the best way to do that was to not flow test. The wirelines themselves gave the jvp's on both blocks the confidence to chase acerage.. if our block is 80 square kilometers, then how much is the other block? EME have gone absolutely silent on any information on that i see, and i assume the reasons for that are because they simply cant.. the reporting rules are far more relaxed on their stock exchange.. and they are not freely giving anything out regarding the second block, its amazing.. 

_A further update will be provided as soon as confirmation of the date for
spudding the first well in this sixteen well program is advised by TCEI,
along with testing dates for the Sugarloaf-1 well._

So TCEinc is also the operator on the other side, and co ordinating the show, i cant see them doing anything to the detrament of the SL block, and i cant see any reason to assume that the entire play will be treated as one and developed in the best possible way with full cooperation between all respective jvp's..

so for now its back to silent running, no news from any jvp's and obviously back to buying more acerage leases... that is until the spud date for the other block is released and the testing dates for SL..

great buying envelope comong up...


----------



## Broadside

if Couch mentions 2TCF for the old acreage back in December can we extrapolate based on the extra ground which has been acquired since then? even 1TCF would be massive for all involved

weak close there isn't much depth, doesn't take a lot of volume to knock the price around


----------



## surfingman

chance fate said:


> so if it is a common reservoir presumably there'd have to be an agreement between participants in both blocks on the rate of drainage to ensure each get it's own fair entitlement... 16 wells in block A could possibly depressurise the whole field before Block B holders get a good return....




Okay just to clarify another thing with everyone, how i read the eme situation from a third party and quote...

"Empyrean Energy PLC on Thursday entered into an oil & gas exploration and development agreement with Texas Crude Energy Inc. (TCEI) to participate in a new 16-well program covering two projects, "Block A" and "Block B," in the Sugarloaf Project Area, Texas." 

"The new agreement covers the next 16 wells to be drilled on either Block A and / or Block B."
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=44989

I read that as, eme have an interest in the next 16 wells, doesn't mean there is only 16 on the plans, and yes its possibly across block A and Block B, In my opinion only no need to worry too much at this stage wait for the production and / or exploration details to be revealed in due time. They must have a valid reason for holding back on us.


----------



## nioka

Let us hope that the directors of ADI, ARQ and AUT read this forum so that they can find out all the news about sugarloaf. From their announcements they don't seem to know as much as we would like.


----------



## Agentm

Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000​*By e-Lodgement​*Dear Sir/Madam
Following the recent release of an announcement to the London Stock Exchange By Empyrean Energy plc (“EME”), a participant in the Sugarloaf Project with a 6% Working Interest, and as a result of questions raised by a number of shareholders, Aurora (20% Working Interest in the Sugarloaf Project) makes the following statement.
1. Our release of 24 April 2007 to the ASX advised that the Sugarloaf Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI") had increased the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths to approximately 19,500 acres to date. The Sugarloaf Joint Venture makes no reference to a Block A or Block B. Shareholders will
recall that the Sugarloaf Project involved certain land holdings that were “deep rights” only and other land holdings that carried rights to all depths. We understand that “Block A” is a reference to land that includes land over which the Sugarloaf Joint Venture has deep rights only. We also
understand that EME’s “Block B” is the Sugarloaf Joint Venture land with rights to all depths. It is this land that was referred to in our release of 24 April 2007 as comprising some 19,500 acres to date (excluding land that does not have rights to all depths).
2. Prior to the announcement by EME, we were not aware of any Sugarloaf Project partners, other than the Operator of the Sugarloaf Project Texas Crude Energy Inc, participating in “Block A” other than in the deep rights referred to above.
3. Aurora would like to confirm that the only committed activity at the Sugarloaf Project at this time is the program for testing outlined in previous announcements. A successful testing of the Sugarloaf #1 well would lead to additional drilling, geological and geophysical activities. The
nature of this work, the number, location and design of any wells and the cost of wells will only be addressed after the testing of Sugarloaf #1.
It is our understanding that the EME release envisages their commitment to certain costs that may be incurred on up to 16 wells that could be drilled on the land they refer to as Blocks A and B. Aurora has no commitment in this regard but is optimistic that additional wells targeting the Cretaceous carbonates will be drilled following a successful testing program at Sugarloaf #1. The nature of any such wells and our financial obligations would be advised at the time of commitment.
4. Aurora is not in a position to comment on any proposed work plans by third parties relating to “Block A”. Aurora announced in February last year that a well nearby to Sugarloaf #1 was drilled and that the well flowed successfully from the shallower depths. As we are not a party to that Joint Venture we are not in a position to provide details regarding this well.​ 
5. Aurora has a 50% Working Interest in the Longhorn Project and 80% Working Interest in the Ipanema Project both of which are located adjacent to the Sugarloaf Project. Aurora has paid its agreed share of land acquisition costs for these two projects totalling in excess of US$7.5
million and as previously advised has a net land position to date across these two projects of in excess of 12,000 acres (more than 20,000 acres gross). Across these two projects and Sugarloaf, Aurora is participating in more than 40,000 gross acres and 16,000 net acres. Please find below a schematic illustrating the relative land positions referred to above:


refer http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070515/pdf/00720911.pdf

for diagrams


enjoy!!​


----------



## S_Hug

As yet, EKA and ADI have not announced anything yet - just AUT.

"We understand..." concerns me a bit.  Surely they should know what's going on..?  Again, communication and relationships amongst stakeholders would not seem too strong...But maybe in such a competitive environment, it doesn't have to be.  But still, could surely pose problems further down the track...?

I'm confused by this release:

1. Our release of 24 April 2007 to the ASX advised that the Sugarloaf Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI") had increased the area over 
which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths to approximately 19,500 acres to date. 

_O.K., so they have rights to "all depths".  But then they go on to say..._

The Sugarloaf Joint Venture makes no reference to a Block A or Block B. Shareholders will 
recall that the Sugarloaf Project involved certain land holdings that were "deep rights" only and 
other land holdings that carried rights to all depths. We understand that "Block A" is a reference 
to land that includes land over which the Sugarloaf Joint Venture has deep rights only. We also 
understand that EME's "Block B" is the Sugarloaf Joint Venture land with rights to all depths. It 
is this land that was referred to in our release of 24 April 2007 as comprising some 19,500 
acres to date (excluding land that does not have rights to all depths). 

_But they just said they had rights to all depths...?!  _

2. Prior to the announcement by EME, we were not aware of any Sugarloaf Project partners, other than the Operator of the Sugarloaf Project Texas Crude Energy Inc, participating in "Block A" 
other than in the deep rights referred to above. 

_Would somebody mind explaining what the  difference between deep rights and I guess "shallow rights" are??  Does that mean EME has rights to a certain "shallow" level (up to x amount of feet for instance) and then other JVP's (EKA/AUT/ADI) have access to deeper depths beneath this ?  If so, how is that managed amongst all parties?_

I have one other question, how does the land owner royalty system work when oil an gas is found.  I think I recall this being a big vague in other releases, maybe I'm wrong.. I'm just wondering how much of the pie needs to go to the landowner in the end from the JVP's?  Can this be disputed and could there be trouble down the track amongst all parties...?

Thanks in advance for any feedback!


----------



## Agentm

i have printed it up,, drawn 3d diagrams,, i have tried to understand it..

heres my understanding so far ..  ??????????!!!!!!!!!!!!????????


seriously, i have no clue what they are on about.. so back to researching it more..

para 2 sounds interesting,, defensive!!

did someone at eme throw a cat amoungst the pidgeons or what???


----------



## sting

With regard to my above post, I spoke to a Director or ADI yesterday regarding the EME announcement and thier interpretation of this announcement is that they are only confirming to their shareholders there rights to participate in the next 16 wells with the operator. No actual confirmation of when or where these well will be drilled if at all. With regards to Block A /Block B ADI only has an interest in Block B

Semper Ubi Sub Ubi


----------



## Sniffer

1.
AUT: “We understand that “Block A” is a reference to land that includes land over which the Sugarloaf Joint Venture has deep rights only” FALSE
EME: “The Block A Operator has drilled a first exploratory test well on
Block A and this well is a discovery well which it has been reported
flowed gas and associated condensate on test.”   
If this were true, guess they should have gone with operator A “to remain nameless”.  At least they know how to test the Hosston.  

AUT: “EME’s “Block B” is the Sugarloaf Joint Venture land with rights to all depths” TRUE

2.
AUT: “Prior to the announcement by EME, we were not aware of any Sugarloaf Project partners, other than the Operator of the Sugarloaf Project Texas Crude Energy Inc, participating in “Block A” other than in the deep rights referred to above.”
There logic is killing them.  Do you think they actually believe that TCEI has kept them in the dark?  They are participating on multiple projects with them.  You would think they would pick up the phone and give Houston a call.

4.
AUT: “Aurora is not in a position to comment on any proposed work plans by third parties relating to “Block A”.
If AUT believes that “Block A” is SL Deep (which they have right to) why are they going to let a 3rd party have a go at it and exclude AUT?

Let’s hope for AUT shareholders that AUT does not truly believe what they have written in this announcement.


----------



## Broadside

I know EME has probably wrong footed the Aussie partners in this project but it is totally unacceptable for all these shares to be trading in at best an information vacuum and at worst a state of utter confusion for shareholders.  EKA is down 2 cents today now is that efficient markets working on all known information or sellers oblivious to what is going on?  

All I know is that EME's news shows that Sugarloaf is a goer, but as to the way forward, Block A, Block B, shallow rights deep rights, a massive 3rd party involved?.....they need to clarify what is going on sooner rather than later.


----------



## barney

Broadside said:


> I know EME has probably wrong footed the Aussie partners in this project but it is totally unacceptable for all these shares to be trading in at best an information vacuum and at worst a state of utter confusion for shareholders.  EKA is down 2 cents today now is that efficient markets working on all known information or sellers oblivious to what is going on?
> 
> All I know is that EME's news shows that Sugarloaf is a goer, but as to the way forward, Block A, Block B, shallow rights deep rights, a massive 3rd party involved?.....they need to clarify what is going on sooner rather than later.





Agree Broadside, ............... I received a reply from ADI re the current situation ................ Very brief reply, but the essence was, that the  Empyrean deal would not affect ADI's position with regard to Sugarloaf and their "interests" in any way .................. No real information, but at least confirmation that all is still "as it should be" with regard to ADI ............. hope that puts some minds at rest.


----------



## chance fate

...  guess it's due to the absense of concrete information....  knowing there's so much time to kill until testing is going to keep the price supressed...  any upward burst will get hit...  so if you want to play that game in the short term ..  there could be some profit....  reckon we need the actual final test results before we can rest 100% easy...  that's what i need...


----------



## nioka

chance fate said:


> ...  guess it's due to the absense of concrete information....  knowing there's so much time to kill until testing is going to keep the price supressed...  any upward burst will get hit...  so if you want to play that game in the short term ..  there could be some profit....  reckon we need the actual final test results before we can rest 100% easy...  that's what i need...




NT testing results will soon be there. If good results are not already "priced in" there could be a price jump. Of course if the result is not good ??????????


----------



## chance fate

... agree.. apologies..  I've got EKA on my mind - responding to broadside's comment on EKA dropping 2c...  should have posted on that thread...  but guess due to JV's it all gets mixed in soup anyhow...


----------



## S_Hug

o.k. just spoke to AUT.  Others might want to do the same as I'm far from an expert on oil and gas and it would be good for someone more in the know to make the phone-call and re-confirm.

- They have ALL depth rights to the 19,500 acres that they mention.  Refer purple section in diagram..

- They have extra acreage (cannot disclose what amount) in the "Block A" region - blue section in diagram.  But this is rights to the deeper areas as this was originally what they were more focused on. Since then, EME has acquired interests in this area too.  Apparently in the U.S. the situation is different to Australia, tenements etc, where the owners can sub-lease land, hence the situation where EME have access to the shallower parts.   Didn't quite get this.. Situation was described as a big of a nightmare to understand.   Apparently all JVP's have the same rights to this area - referred to as "Block A" by EME.

- Longhorn is in the Sugarloaf area and AUT are the only one's who have interest in this.  Not EKA/ADI.  Hope I got this right...

- I asked out of the Australian JVP's who has the most acreage and AUT believe it is them.  Access to various depths across about 40,000 acres in total across the Sugarloaf region.

Please could somebody else phone as somebody in this thread said that that they phoned ADI and they said they had no rights over EME's "Block A".  Whereas AUT is saying that all JVP's do - deep rights.


----------



## Agentm

Sounds to me like disharmony, and a real case of first in best dressed. with adi not even remotely interested in this fiasco..

There has been little team unity shown here.  I see it as ADI having 80 square kilometers of land with the other JVP's in the "AMI", then we have AUT buying longhorn to the east and ipanema to the south.

Then theres sugarloaf deep rights next door, ADI has nothing there 

then next door to that is third party.. again ADI has no interest there..

EME has taken up acerage in those areas, AUT has by their own admissions said to SHUG they have interests there but they feel they are not liable to announce anything regardless of the 16 wells planned there. How that happens i dont know, it simply doesnt make sense??

ADI have no interest in anything other than the 80 square kilometers, we have jvp's all over the place going solo, and complete chaos and disunity across all jvp's, as no one is prepared to say anything to anyone else, and the resulting information flow to the shareholders remains chaotic.. ADI is not responsible for the mess here and shouldnt be the ones picking up the pieces and clearing it up.. as much as i wanted clarity, i understand adi is not the ones responsible to give it..

granted AUT have had a crack at trying to explain it, but it lacks clarity.

We have to take adi's word for it that they are not going to break from normal protocols amoungst joint venture partners and are not buying acerage independent from other jvp's, and therefor we dont have the confusion eminating from anything that adi is doing, its all being created by jvp's feathering their own nest and working independent of eachother and not with the others interests at heart. I think in the future if jvp's are expecting unity with joint  capital raising i wonder how they will make requests from adi on that front.. "hey guys,, we havent spoken for some time.. and  i just think we should talk things through and maybe co ordinate things... guys??? hello??? cant understand it the phone cut out!!"

ADI as far as i am concerned has not broken any protocol, has remained silent, and will continue to focus on the projects in their usual steadfast fashion. no damaging news from the adi camp so far that i can see.. its up to the individual to assess if they agree or not as to how the jvp's are behaving and if thats the place to secure vast sums odf investments with.. 


From here i wonder how the absolute confusion and misinformation is going to have any upside for the near term, until absolute clarity comes out we have to agree that adi has not changed its position, is not buying any acerage independent of the "AMI" areas of mutual interest.

i am a little apprehensive now, i cant see any unity from the JVP's. EME is clearly doing its own thing as is AUT. Eka hasnt got a penny so its stuck in limbo.. ADI is fully cashed up and was capable of doing the things the JVP's have done but has, as far we  know, not done so.

ADI shares remain tightly held, and besides the little games playeda in the low .70's for the past days, the only real stock available is in a different threashold..

i sense time is running short for these prices, somehow the news has to surface, and there are two wells about to become significant producers, and the wheels are in motion on the entire SL play.. wells are being drilled and progress is going ahead regardless of the testing. 


_A successful testing of the Sugarloaf #1 well *would lead to additional drilling*, geological and geophysical activities. The *nature *of this work, the *number*, *location and design*_ _of any wells and the cost of wells will only be addressed after the testing of Sugarloaf #1._​ 
look, as far i am concerned, AUT is indicating things here, and if your on to it then you know what to do, this is a little cryptic, but very relevant...
there is very very bullish sentiment coming from the jvp's regardless of the current fiasco, we have EKA raising capital just for this, and aut making some very interesting comments.. 


great days ahead still.. all announcements from adi will be posisitve i feel..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Agentm

Dear Sir/Madam
Eureka refers to the recent announcement to the London Stock Exchange by Empyrean Energy plc (“EME”), a participant in the Sugarloaf Project with a 6% Working Interest. This release resulted in a number of questions being raised by shareholders querying Eureka’s land position within the Sugarloaf project.
Accordingly, Eureka confirms it has a 12.5% Working Interest in the Sugarloaf Project and makes the following statement.
1. Our release of 24 April 2007 to the ASX advised that the Sugarloaf Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI") had increased the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths to approximately 19,500 acres to date (Eureka’s interest approximately 2,430 net acres).
The Sugarloaf Joint Venture makes no reference to a Block A or Block B as described in the EME announcement. Shareholders will recall that the Sugarloaf Project involved certain land holdings that were “deep rights” only and other land holdings that carried rights to all depths. We understand that “Block A” is a reference to land that includes land over which the Sugarloaf Joint Venture has deep rights only and where the shallow rights are held by third parties. We also understand that EME’s “Block B” is the Sugarloaf Joint Venture land with rights to all depths. It is this land that was referred to in our release of 24 April 2007 as comprising approximately 19,500 acres to date (excluding land where the Sugarloaf Joint Venture does not have rights to all depths). 
• Third Party + Sugarloaf ( Deep rights) = “ Block A “
• Sugarloaf ( all depths) = “ Block B “
This diagram is not to s cale and is for illustrative purposes only.

2. Prior to the announcement by EME, Eureka was not aware of any Sugarloaf Project partners, other than the Operator of the Sugarloaf Project, Texas Crude Energy Inc, participating in “Block A” other than in the deep rights referred to above.
3. Eureka confirms that the only committed activity at the Sugarloaf Project at this time is the program for testing outlined in previous announcements. A successful testing of the Sugarloaf #1 well would lead to additional drilling, geological and geophysical activities. The nature of this work, the number, location and design of any wells and the cost of wells will only be addressed after the testing of Sugarloaf #1.
The EME release envisages their commitment to certain costs that may be incurred on up to 16 wells that could be drilled on the land they refer to as Blocks
A and B. Eureka has no commitment in this regard but is optimistic that additional wells targeting the Cretaceous carbonates will be drilled following a successful testing program at Sugarloaf #1. The nature of any such wells and our financial obligations would be advised at the time of commitment.
Yours faithfully
EUREKA ENERGY LIMITED
Alex Neuling
DIRECTOR


and so it continues.. we didnt know about the major oil either says eka!!


----------



## resourceboom

Both announcements look very similar!! They were both submitted by Alex Nueling, as director of EKA and company secretary of AUT.

I do believe this announcement is very helpful to get a much better understanding of things.

Interesting that AUT has so much acreage, wonder if Ipanema and Longhorn are looking as prospective as the others, especially with 80% and 50% respectively for a cost in excess of US$7.5Million, wow!!


----------



## Dukey

Well, to quote my mate Bob Dylan (I wish )
" I got mixed up confusion... and it's a-killin me...."

BUT.. theres one good thing I see - with JV partners buying up and seemingly wrangling for position over acreage & rights etc.   - there MUST be something good down there - or none of this would be happening!!!

Soooo - I'll just continue to wait patiently, as I and many others have done since ... when was that... around Aug. last year I think. I'm more confident as these cryptic announcements come out, that there is 'something to be cryptic about'...The only thing to do is wait and see...
-Dukey (yes I'm still here!!!!!!!! - just a bit quiet)


----------



## Agentm

dont be quiet anymore dukey.. make some noise!!

and btw,, your thread you started only has 4 stars not five,, lets make sure everyone up's the rating hey!!

Tomorrow we will se a new perspective on the whole SL saga, and only upward sp pressure will be the norm,, with the shares tightly held i can see some nice days ahead real soon..

i think NT will be the first to deliver followed closely by a massive sl tidal wave..

if you cant hear the elephants now guys then your missing somethin.. 

its elephant season from tomorrow onwards!!! theres a whole heard stampeding your way..

if you on the share, dont sell yourself short, its got $4 upside easy..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well this is the buisness end of the ADI exploration story.Almost 1 year on we have great prospects but no definative answers,during this time ADI has conducted itself in a proffesional manner and continue too do so even whilst others have broke ranks for there own self interest.
With other partners scrambling too gain more acerage at SL this can only be a positive sign "Block A and Block B" only cofuse the matter with no real clarity in a euphoric state which too me says are these guys up too scratch on how too be profesional buisnessmen whereas ADI are sitting back letting the others do the talking and releasing it weekly updates cool calm and collected now they are the type I want looking after my investment.
NT will unveil its secrets very soon with hopefully positive result too put a floor under the sp and stabilise a good growth platform.
SL should by all accounts set us alight and speculation alone should see a rapid rise in the sp with the register tightly held.
Thanks too all for there input and shared research we will enjoy together


----------



## Ken

AgentM if ADI gets to $4 i will need a blown up photo of that cat in your Avatar so i can stick in my pool room.

$4 and there would be champagne flying around all over the place at this in.

I would hang the briefcase up!


----------



## S_Hug

Hi All

I'm not sure that Adelphi should be commended for sitting back and not announcing anything to the market when the other 2 JVP's have (as cryptic as it is)...But that's just my personal opinion... 

Anyway, I do agree that they're all onto something and whether you're the holder of AUT/ADI/EKA/EME/Mysterious major oil company, good luck with it all!

Personally, I'm liking the sound of the extra acreage that Aurora has interests in...I'll probably dabble in them all...


----------



## Broadside

the Eureka announcement has cleared things up a bit, thanks for everyone's input yesterday.  Looks like all the JVP's smell money/gas in Sugarloaf and are scrambling now so it's all good, just a matter of time.


----------



## Agentm

hey ken.. you like technocat!! i agree with the champagne, we will be bathing in it if it goes where i think it will..

i was thinking a lot on longhorn, and aut buying it up.. i know they are chasing the same play through there, but i wonder if its that prospective, it obviously has some merit, i would have thought if it was highly prospective, then surely the ones who discovered this play would have snapped it up way before AUT could.. its just me thinking out loud, and i have in no way got any knowlege about the play, but i tend to think the major oil co first well and sl are in the sweet spot so to speak.. but there is no doubt eme and aut are excellent value..

todays announcements on NT is going to reveal if they are on schedule or not.. i suspect some commentary on the EME announcement would be made..


----------



## surfingman

New announcement but no new news, just further waiting on information from testing. Another 14 days from New Taiton wow must be going for a guiness book record on longest testing program.... 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00721445


----------



## Agentm

i would have thought the NT news could have been cleared than that, but this pipeline is getting longer and longer by the sounds,  and absolutely no comment on the EME situation, nothing on SL either..

goes to show you that you cant always rely on things you hear, i was given an understanding some reply to EME and SL was being seriously considered, perhaps a change of heart by adi.. who knows..


----------



## yogi-in-oz

yogi-in-oz said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ..... since the March 2007 equinox, we have seen ADI lift
> off its lows, then move sideways,  since  the highs at the
> end of March 2007.
> 
> Resistance over the past few days have put a ceiling on ADI's
> move and our time cycle analysis indicates that, this month
> (May 07) is likely to be mostly negative:
> 
> May 2007
> 
> 11052007 ..... negative news expected here.
> 
> 15052007 ..... another difficult cycle expected, at this time.
> 
> 21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ...
> 
> 29051007 ..... positive news expected here
> 
> =====
> 
> June 2007
> 
> 05062007 ..... minor cycle ... finance-related ???
> 
> 21-24062007 ..... positive light on ADI ... as two significant
> and positive cycles come into play ...
> 
> =====
> 
> July 2007
> 
> 13-16072007 ..... a significant and positive cycle here ... finance
> ... note the price on this day.
> 
> 23072007 ..... minor cycle here
> 
> =====
> 
> August 2007
> 
> 03-07082007 ..... minor news early in this period, with a negative
> reaction, as another negative time cycle,
> comes out to play.
> 
> 
> 10-13082007 ..... finances ???
> ... is price the same as  13-16072007 ??
> 
> 17-20082007 ..... significant and positive news expected here
> 
> 22-23082007 ..... positive spotlight on ADI
> 
> =====
> 
> September 2007
> 
> 27082007-to-03092007 ... a VERY NEGATIVE cycle could trigger
> a big  downmove, here ...
> 
> 05092007 ... minor news ???
> 
> 21-24092007  ... minor
> 
> 27092007  ... 2 positive cycles should bring some news,
> triggering  an aggressive rally.    Note price.
> 
> =====
> 
> October 2007
> 
> 05-08102007  ... significant and positive ... finance-related ???
> 
> ... is price the same as  13-16072007 and/or 10-13082007 ... ???
> 
> 23102007 ... minor and positive light on ADI
> 
> 24102007 ... minor news??? ... same price as 27092007 ???
> 
> More later.
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul
> 
> =====






Hi folks,

..... so much for the "insiders " ramping this one up,
in the run up to the good news being released.

NOBODY can change those NATURAL time cycles, that 
unfold, in the life of EVERY individual stock ... !~!

happy days

  paul


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> if you cant hear the elephants now guys then your missing somethin..
> 
> its elephant season from tomorrow onwards!!! theres a whole heard stampeding your way..
> 
> if you on the share, dont sell yourself short, its got $4 upside easy..




WOW thats confidence still. The elephants have ended up in captivity. Wish I still had your confidence, mine is getting a battering but at 1c a share I will still be ahead so I will hold out. This share sure has tested my patience at times.


----------



## Agentm

yep, if adi are not announcing clarifying anything on the EME or Sl. or their position in respect to block A and the major oil company, then there aint no elephants thats for sure.. not even a stampeding mouse!! i was about to buy some bananas and watermelons to feed those rampaging elephants!! 

time to humbly agree with yogi (whom i know is "god" using the alias paul) and stop getting excited that ADI are interested in the Sl well..

those confounded astrologers always have their way, and we have to allow the gods up in the universe to have their influence on the ADI share.. so the sp will have to blow out again i guess, can Yogi care to tell me what the stars are prepared to allow the sp to fall to??

happy days i guess and dyor as mine is lousy right now!!


----------



## surfingman

Hey Agent,

There is still confidence as there connecting to the gas sales pipeline, this is a sales pipeline for good reason to sell the gas.

SL well what is too be said there JV are obviously buying property for a good reason, be patient SP is bouncing back already..... your hard work will pay off eventually


----------



## yogi-in-oz

Hi agentm,

.... a 50% retracement of the last leg up would be the first
and obvious spot to look for support ... around 61-63 cents.

Next down, was previous support at 55 cents and prior to
that 46 cents ... below 46 would surely see panic set in,
as ADI sellers head for the exits ..... 

..... and if that happened, 40 cents would also be an obvious
target, though that is not really likely ... is it???

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## Agentm

for me the update is very upbeat..

*Operations Update*
Adelphi Energy Limited provides the following update in relation to its current USA well operations:
*Ilse 1 Well (New Taiton Prospect) – Adelphi 25% Interest*
The Operator has advised that current operations to prepare the well for testing are expected to be completed later this week. This includes the installation of a short lateral to connect the well to a nearby sales pipeline. Pursuant to the agreed testing program, one of the Lower Wilcox zones identified from well logs and gas shows during drilling will initially be perforated and flow tested prior to fracture stimulating this zone if required. This process is expected to take approximately 14 days.
Further updates will be provided by the Joint Venture partners as definitive flow test results become available.​ 
*Sugarloaf 1 Well – Adelphi 20% Interest*
The proposed testing program for the shallower Cretaceous Carbonate section in the Sugarloaf 1 well as announced recently is now scheduled to commence in July. 
By way of clarification, a recent announcement by one of the Sugarloaf 1 participants (Empyrean Energy plc) in relation to its participation in further wells to be drilled in the Sugarloaf and other nearby areas will not affect the timing of the Sugarloaf 1 well test nor will it affect Adelphi’s interest in the leases acquired within the Sugarloaf Joint Ventures’ Area of Mutual Interest (AMI). These leases have recently been significantly increased to
approx. 19,500 acres within the “All Depth” portion of the Sugarloaf AMI.
The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test.​ 

it says to me they are only waiting to see the results to determin the number of wells. There isnt any talk of them "flow testing to see if they can determin if the zones of interest can be productive" its just a case of now calculating how many wells the flow testing results will give them.. ​


----------



## chance fate

...  if this is part of a lunar cycle... please could the tide go down to the low 50's...  doesn't seem as though gravity is strong enough at this point...  however if you sell 100000 at say 75c and buy back at 70c then that's a 5k profit over a 2 week cycle...  you'd need a 2nd stock or a job flipping burgers....  amusing and interesting to watch this play out....  one thing is for sure...  the moon will invisibly continue to bring the tide in and send it out again - that's it's job...


----------



## Agentm

the announcement was listed as price sensitive, and it contained two parts, NT and Sl

Now AZZ has not decreased 11% on the announcement which they duplicated in their report.

I assume the market has reacted very very negatively towards the SL well being tested in July and further wells being drilled once the testing results have brought the data they need to them for well spacings and what depths to be drilling the infill horizontal wells.

The shareholders should understand that its not possible to know how many wells can be drilled just on the wireline logs and sampling, flow testing is critical to assessing the ongoing program of developing the play. It really is not a negative announcement at all, there is absolutely no suggestion to the shareholders from ADI that there wont be further wells, and in normal circumstances any explorer announcing this without testing the well would be bailed up for being far to optomistic, yet we see announcement after announcement saying wells are going ahead within weeks, and ADI confirming wells are planned, and the market is seeing this as extremely negative.

I maintain the SL well is commercial, and look forward forthcoming testing. If as many as 16 wells are already planned just on the first well results and the wireline logs from sugarloaf, then its good enough for me to believe ADI is not going to speculate on how many wells before the testing is over, who knows, maybe the number may be higher.. I assume the EME announcement was conservative and based on the data relating to the surrounding areas in their lease onthis play.. i suspect its probable the number of wells could easily increase once the analysis of the geology on this side of the play is known..

interesting times none the less, and i maintain the announcement was positive and upbeat.


----------



## chance fate

... it's human nature i guess...  no one is interested in buying today...   so the market is primed for a hit....  but will fight back at a lower level... if it's awake...


----------



## HRL

Yogi I might be completely wrong but if you think we will see a slide to the 40c region sometime soon then your glass is not only half empty but some sneaky bugger has drilled a hole in the bottom of it!  You can probably pick up a new one at the Paddo Mkt this Saturday in between your star gazing and palm reading.

I have been trading ADI since the 30c days and for the life of me I can't see what all the fuss is about with today's ann.  NT is being hooked up to a SALES PIPE and will be ready soon (does this mean they intend to sell stuff?  surely just a coincidence) and SL is ongoing.  Relax and wait.

If SL is such a dog then please tell me why the scramble to buy up the neighbourhood?  I'd love to know why someone would greatly increase their interest in an area if they thought it was worthless.  I know I hate throwing money away but maybe these guys are different and they're just trying to teach us a lesson for being stupid and gullible.

Call me crazy but for the record I was one of the buyers today... the dip to 65c was enough for me to stockup.  Miraculously the sp has rebounded to 68c.  How lucky am I?  Maybe I will nip out and buy a lotto ticket as well...


----------



## Agentm

is it just me or did you notice how ADI did not mention if they were or were not involved in the A block or if they had any prior knowlege of the goings on in Block A.. the only mention on block A is a clever line saying it wont affect the timing of the SL test.. and it said it wouldnt affect the interest in adi's leases aquired within the jv AMI leases. what ever that means.

its not ruling out one thing... are they in on the A block as well or not??

Also yesterday both AUT and EKA were saying:

Eureka has no commitment in this regard but is *optimistic that additional wells* targeting the Cretaceous carbonates *will be drilled* following a successful testing program at Sugarloaf #1. The nature of any such wells and our financial obligations would be advised at the time of commitment. 

today ADI is proclaiming,,,

The *timing and number of additional wells* by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test.

i say that the optimism of EKA and AUT has overnight become just a timing and numbers game.. somehow ADI is not optimistic of there being any unfavorable test results.. 

all very upbeat, and IMHO and DYOR or believe in the stars


----------



## Ken

Someone just offloaded $500,000 worth.
I think others will **** themselves now....  

Thats a lot of stock when you think about the size of the company!


----------



## HRL

Big off market trade.  After that though only two sellers at 68.5 & 69 and everyone else at 75 or higher so lets hope it holds up.


----------



## Agentm

i didnt even see a buy order for 848,500 units!!

certainly put a spanner in the works,, all quiet on the trades!!

is it possible this was done off market between brokers?

i am impressed, its not at all usual to see that go through, but it went at .65... nice pick up for someone considering whats about to happen in the near term (stars permitting)


----------



## Ken

I think it was between brokers.

16-05-2007 02:43 PM $0.650 848450 $551,492.500 Crossed 

Thats top 20 shareholder stuff isn't it?


----------



## kevro

Looks like it was for a total of 1 million shares exactly. Part of it was at market to bring it down to maybe the crossing price and the remainder seems to of been crossed.


----------



## Agentm

hopefully that will clear up why the sp has been played around with for the past days.. it should free that up a little i guess..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Maybe its this major oil company making its takeover play but the more of those the better and would really tie up the register


----------



## mick z

i think it has been played with for some time.
have a look at the sell side starting to look very thin, may some up side to the sp now.

not one trade for an hour.

mick.


----------



## Ken

I would love to be able to manipulate a stock... the day you can start doing that is the day you know you have too much money.


Just a lazy 1/2 million dollars into ADI thanks broker..
lol


----------



## Agentm

i have been watching it for a while now, and i know you have mentioned it before..  i wonder if the stars had anything to do with it?  or if that yogi had anything to do with it?? he certainly called it again, and so far has turned the upbeat announcements of today into massive 13% downspikes.. he could be using this forum to put code into his posts..

lets break it down.. he put a sad face  on one part

21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ... 

if you multiply that by three and take off two zeros, thats 842,080 (amazingly close to 848,500 units!!!)

i am starting to wonder about yogi now.. i dunno


----------



## barney

kevro said:


> Looks like it was for a total of 1 million shares exactly. Part of it was at market to bring it down to maybe the crossing price and the remainder seems to of been crossed.




Hi Kev, It was exactly 1 million as you said ............ I don't really understand the concepts behind large cross trades ..... this is "broker-land" and out of the realms of us mere mortals ............... I would not try and read too much into it at this stage (for eg.  We have all seen large X-trades go through pre and post-open, at prices way below market open on various stocks; particularly blue chips like BHP etc.)  ............ Perhaps we could ask Nick Radge for a comment on the significance of these trades, and the "possibilities" behind them ................ 

Just because it was a large cross trade, does that mean it was from the same seller?? (and going to the same buyer??) ............ or can the broker be acting on behalf of a group of traders at the same time?? .................. Irrespective, it was a large order, ................... for what its worth, my guess, is that it was probably a "transfer" of shares from one account to another (probably still owned by the same people, but in an account more suitable to their current financial situation ........... therefore the price may or may not have been an important consideration, other than for possible tax purposes etc??....................... pure speculation on my part .............. any comments from better informed punters???


----------



## Ken

Could possibly be a trade into a super fund couldn't it?

The limit is 1 milllion dollars so it is under that.


----------



## cicak_kupang

It's never nice to see the sp go down by 8cents, and as Barney mentioned above, the 1 million share trade may not actually be as "serious" as it seem's at face value.  

Im looking at the things that i do know for certain that shines a great future for ADI. You dont lease 19500 acres fo no reason, and not for just 1 well either, you dont hook up a pipeline to Isle 1 if its not going to produce.  ARQ excercised their options into more shares in ADI at the start of the year, not a single share has been sold by the management ( that we know of for sure).  We know there is to be 2 possible shallow wells drilled on SL, as mentioned in the 2006 annual report. Never mind the Yemen, AC/P32, Indonesian works and the joint allience, thats looking into Africa....

Very profesional management team, with plenty of $ in the bank.  

I dont know if EME was write or wrong to tell the market about thier 16 well programme, but i wish it hadn't put us in the "messy" situation that we are now in.

Im not suprised that NT is still the never ending 2 weeks away.  Just wished they would tell us what has been the hold up.....as for SL, im not suprised either that its now being tested/frec in July. 

In fact they can take as much time as they want on planning this frac test, cos stuffing it up is not an option, it needs to be spot on perfect, as the info they'll get from the results will be the foundation for all the other wells on thier lease.

Looks like i better put that resignation letter  back in the draw for a while yet.....


----------



## Nick Radge

I have been askd to reply to this thread regarding the off-market trade.

A few things to understand. Institutions use brokers so major transactions will almost always be between brokers on *BEHALF *of a client. Who that client is we usually never know and besides, it really makes no difference. Behind every client is a human with the same greed/fear that we all have.

A cross trade will occur when someone wants a piece of the action without upsetting the price or without having to accumulate/distribute the stock quietly over a period of time. All institutions will use a "panel" of brokers. Those brokers feed the client information in hope for return business - go watch Wall Street, it's not much different. One day that client needs/wants to do a serious trade and will need access to stock, either as a buyer or seller. The client will ring their "panel" and ask if they have any clients willing to take the opposite trade or more lieky if they have a client/s interested in the stock - they won't disclose their position if they have to. If these brokers are well connected, which is their intended job, then chances are that they can find the other side to the trade. If so, they can marry up the two sides at an agreed price and "cross" the trade off-market.

One may argue that this is not quite "cricket" but the ASX allows it so as not to create major disturbances in the marketplace.

So, in this case we have a cross trade below the prevaling price. What this suggests to me is that a current long holder - whoever that may be - wished to exit their position without taking their time to distribute their holdings on-market. They ring their broker panel and eventually find one that has a willing buyer - at a discount of course. Supply and demand are at work which is why the seller must sell below the current market price. Nobody in their right mind will buy at the market price or higher knwoing full well that a large seller is willing and able to offload, hence the discount to current market value. Call it a buyers risk premium or "let you out of jail free" card for the seller.

So, when this news hits the wires on the trade we will tend to see follow through because everyone thinks that the sellers knows something - afterall, why would they want to sell in a hurry?

This is not necessarily the case though but can be enough to cause a quick reaction, especially if that buyer got the stock at a significant discount. If they were able to get the stock off market at a good price then sell on-market at a higher price then its a great arbitrage. They may be only in the trade for that alone - we can never know unless a major shareholder notice is lodged.

The stock has shown weakness since its selloff in early March. Last week was a sign of "no demand" which is bearish anyway. Any rally has been met by selling so it could well be that someone has been hurting is just wanting out. 

I have to agree with Yogi. looking a tad sick at present...

Nick


----------



## barney

Thankyou Nick for the insights.   

Re the large trade:- Looks to me like a big punter who has become a little impatient with all the waiting, and/or, being so close to the end of the financial year/and a possible May-June correction, is happy to bank the money at this stage ............... (they probably made 50% on their money anyway)

The positive slant is however, that another big punter/punters was happy to buy that million shares at around 65 cents .............. I had a quick search back through the last 4-5 months trades, and that looks to be the largest trade in that time (no surprise there!) ............ so we have a big player in at the current level, with no results on SL till July? .............. You could think negative about the large trade, but adding up all we now know about whats going on (Cikac summarised it well above) ........ I would be inclined to think someone is positioning themselves for the future ............ I mean you dont spend $650,000 on a whim .................. At a glance,the trade might shake a few "weaker hands" out of the share, so there may even be more opportunities for those who aren't in yet to get in at "basement" prices ............. Personally, I'll back todays "buyer" to end up in front ............. all just my opinions.


----------



## surfingman

Just a thought about that 1 million X over yesterday, could it also be a broker accumulating stocks for client with the transfer happening yesterday? Is it possible to check CHESS Holdings info in any way to see who brought the stocks?


----------



## Agentm

yesterday after announcing brilliant news on NT and on SL the sp was hammered..

On the NT announcement;

Pursuant to the agreed testing program, one of the Lower Wilcox zones identified from well logs and gas shows during drilling will *initially be perforated and flow tested* prior to *fracture stimulating* this zone *if required*.​

So they are not expecting to frac the lower wilcox, that means it sure must have flowed sensationally, and only fracing of the wilcox will be done if required, sounds like the lower wilcox is very productive indeed..

according to Hartleys,

If NT well is worst case 40 BCF.    then thats .30 to the sp

If Sl is worst case 27 BCf and 12mmb oil.     then thats .50 to the sp

Now thats .80 to the sp worst case and we are not talking about cash on hand and not talking value of other leases and projects.

Ignoring the 16 wells for a moment, ADI was proclaiming last month in their presentation (posted on their website) that SL is 100bcf to 170bcf, thats $1.50 -$2.50.. 

we wont even go near 500 bcf or 1-2 tcf calculations!!

With the worst case senario on NT added to what they are prepared to say about SL, we are in the $3 area.. Not including cash or further prospects..

is it fair to say there is fair value to the adi share on todays prices?


----------



## mick z

agentm,

i couldnt have said it better myself mr m.

thats why i keep saying re- read the announcements do your home work, do the maths.

these shares are going to look very cheap in 3 mths.
look whats coming up over the next 6mths YEMEN, AC/P32 more wells at n/t, s/l you cant ask for much more...gezzzz.

mick.


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> is it fair to say there is fair value to the adi share on todays prices?




No.

Because you have to divide the total reserves etc by the percentage of what ADI has on it before you apply it to a potential price of the share.

And given ADI has a 20% interest in SL. It looks like the lower range they have said is actually _worse_ than the previous worst case scenario...

Pretty elementary really.


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> No.
> 
> Because you have to divide the total reserves etc by the percentage of what ADI has on it before you apply it to a potential price of the share.
> 
> And given ADI has a 20% interest in SL. It looks like the lower range they have said is actually _worse_ than the previous worst case scenario...
> 
> Pretty elementary really.




do you not think the Hartley's analyst adjusted for ADI's economic interest when they did the calculation?!

edit:  http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/news/documents/Hartleys Research Report - Dec 2006.pdf

here is the report


----------



## chops_a_must

Broadside said:


> do you not think the Hartley's analyst adjusted for ADI's economic interest when they did the calculation?!




Yes.

But AgentM sure as hell hasn't from what I am reading there. 170bcf /20% = 34bcf. So on an upside, that would be 62.5c to the share price. $1.50-2.50 is absolute nonsense on these figures.

Ramp.


----------



## mick z

chops

Yes.

But AgentM sure as hell hasn't from what I am reading there. 170bcf /20% = 34bcf. So on an upside, that would be 62.5c to the share price. $1.50-2.50 is absolute nonsense on these figures.

Ramp.


chops can you show me how you got to that figure, now dont go off hartleys numbers, i want to know how you got it    (62.5c)

mick


----------



## daeff

Chops a must have failed maths... 

I can easily get to the values from agantm even using spot gas at 6USD/mcf.. it is currently 7.8

Can you ignore people on this site?


----------



## ironchef

Agentm has been beating his drums about these stocks since the year dot. What I'm curious to know is if he's so certain about the price tripling in three months, has he sold his house, car, kids and cat to buy more shares? 

If not, why not?

I'm a holder btw.


----------



## surfingman

ironchef said:


> Agentm has been beating his drums about these stocks since the year dot. What I'm curious to know is if he's so certain about the price tripling in three months, has he sold his house, car, kids and cat to buy more shares?
> 
> If not, why not?
> 
> I'm a holder btw.




Who said he hasn't??? 

Nothing is Guaranteed.... Agent M believes in ADI, be the Judge of it all when the results are released, he may be right or wrong until then its all just speculation with a little backing from what we can research of the internet.

I guess a large number of ASFers hold


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> yesterday after announcing brilliant news on NT and on SL the sp was hammered
> 
> With the worst case senario on NT added to what they are prepared to say about SL, we are in the $3 area.. Not including cash or further prospects..




The big question is when? Waiting costs money. The ADI shares I sold  bought AGM shares which have increased in value by over 120% in less than 6months while I have watched the ADI drop. At my age I am not interested in long term. If new wells are necessary to get value from the field and they are as slow as the rate we have seen so far I may not live long enough to get much benefit. 
I like the news but I hate the delays.


----------



## Agentm

I used hartleys report as a guide, and Strachan is similar..

in answer to your question deaff ... no, usually the people around here are fairly polite.. 

if your wrong on something you generally get a polite,, hey mate maybe its worked out this way, or you pm them and getthem to quickly correct a post.. but some around here dont have to qualify anything with their own calculations if they dont feel like it, just call it a ramp and dont support it with anything.. each to their own i guess.. 

If you use Hartleys or Strachan Corporate you get the same figures, i am allowing for 2mmbl which is all at the very low end of things.

I speculate still that 500bcf+ has to be a consideration based on the size of the field, when you research the fields and the players its absolutely amazing..​ 
i still feel NT is going to be an extremely crutial well, to get revenue into ADI when a well development program is on the cards is an absolute bonus. NT is not testing all zones in this well, they are obviously confident enough the lower wilcox, even if not fully drilled, is going to give more than sufficient flow in the near term.. i am very bullish on NT just as AZZ was by calling it a discovery a few weeks back..​


----------



## Agentm

ironchef said:


> Agentm has been beating his drums about these stocks since the year dot. What I'm curious to know is if he's so certain about the price tripling in three months, has he sold his house, car, kids and cat to buy more shares?
> 
> If not, why not?
> 
> I'm a holder btw.





hey ironchef..

ADI is an oil and gas explorer, with it very likely going to be a producer in the near term with NT.. I invested in both NT and SL and have increased my holding, also again in the past days. I invested for one of the two to be a success. By the way the JVP's on Sl are announcing 16 wells and one it going ahead without seeing the Sl results, and AZZ announcing NT as a discovery, i am happy to be a holder..

as always, DYOR and all IMHO


Its high risk high reward.. 

i invest according to my research, my decisions and my own risk reward profile.

NB.. re the three month thing... i didnt say three months... 

great to see your a happy holder and best of luck!!


----------



## itchy

let this ship sink boys.....................cant hold on for ever.
opp cost of your $$$ says its better somewhere else


----------



## Agentm

itchy said:


> let this ship sink boys.....................cant hold on for ever.
> opp cost of your $$$ says its better somewhere else




best of luck.. plenty of action on the market, i agree the need for patience is required on O&G explorers..  

just curious... what were you holding for?


----------



## Broadside

itchy said:


> let this ship sink boys.....................cant hold on for ever.
> opp cost of your $$$ says its better somewhere else




my timing isn't perfect I would rather be in than out when the run happens...and I don't know when that will be.  Sure there is opportunity cost, so it's good to have some other irons in the fire, if you are absolutely confident this will languish and can ride the next flyer good luck to you itchy.


----------



## Agentm

hey broadside,,

i see the pipeline is just about connected to NT, so they would have had to negotiate the lease with the landowners for that. 

No frac is needed at NT, they are just perforating and letting it flow as is.. They have a back up plan to frac if needed..

I am pretty impressed with the NT well, they couldnt drill any further becuase of the pressure problems, there are three zones they have shows on, and the Lower Wilcox has been called a discovery by AZZ..  i think if your planning to pipe in the gas immediately into the pipeline your operating with supeme confidence.. i feel the next few reports from NT may be quite interesting.


----------



## Agentm

how does the 12% jump in the closing rate??  

somethings starting to happen in the world of ADI..

I aint complaining but its pretty unusual, we have had some amazing trades this week..


----------



## wallave

a nice $75,000 purchase on the close.  Good bit of confidence.  I'd like volume to pick up a little but definately heading in the right direction.


----------



## Agentm

In terms of excitement ADI has not achieved any of late, all operations are still under the news blackout, and not just for SL, its also important to note that although the workver rig is operating on site, little news is being spread their either. I think that as each announcement comes through in the next days there will be some considerble upside to each and every one of them.

Looking forward to EME's agm, plenty of folk i know will attend and look forward to their feedback on any SL detail...

In spite of ADI upgrading their estimates on the secondaries, i am convinced the revised 100 - 170bcf pre drill upside does not match the intense work the jvp's are completing behind the scene.

Now couch oil who is a partner in this is talking 2tcf..  I see others also convinced its multi tcf, and i am a firm believer that 500  bcf wouldnt even warrant the amount of interest this play is getting.

Silent running.. the order of the day..  there has to be a motivation for it.. i look at the buying on adi, and see many times where single buyers are buying in many 100's of thousands of shares in intense buying sprees.. its obvious that those doing their reseach are seeing some good upside in the very near future..

i tend to think the next few announcements are going to be extremely interesting..

looking forward to the news to come..


----------



## daeff

The silence here is so load...... I agree agentm that NT for ADI is so important.  To have cash flow into the company that can be used to develop the SL field.....


Any other news from SL... i still feel it may be a month away yet.


----------



## Agentm

hey daeff

i believe the announcements on the second well must be very close, EME has an AGM any day now, and i feel certain they need some good news there as their sp has been knocked around bigtime.

There is plenty of news around about SL, but the ability for the jvp's to announce any of it is limited whilst the acerage is being bought up.

The AMI is, in my view, as productive as area A, I think when couch oil revealed porosity on the plays he gave away just a bit too much, and the JVP's and in particular TCE has not been sitting by doing nothing, everything that is required to fully prepare for a massive development of the plays has been done from what i have been told, so the final testing of the plays and the planning of the numbers of wells and locations will be decided by the results from the testing. It is no longer a case of whether the well is commercial, that part is irrelevant to the jvp's and if you understand the chalks then you know much more work needs to be done. the well was always designed to test all the zones of interest, and that is what it will do, once its completed then further news will be announced on numbers of wells and locations and obviously some preconcieved idea on the actual size of potential reserves. and thats where i believe the massive upside is at sugarloaf.

i am certain that the last thing the jvp's would be doing is spending vast amounts in the direction of acerage and further field work unless something very very promising was on the horizon. ADi is not reckless and  certainly not sitting around and allowing opportunities to slide by, i am certain that the next 60 days will deliver some amazing twists and turns as the action commences on the area A well, i cant imagine the EME board will be able to drill a well without disclosing what they are targeting and would have to produce some information to the market re the play, so i feel its only a matter of time befor the market is aware of the entire play and its significance.

patience is required by holders, and the clever ones are buying whenever they can i see..


----------



## rolisatosser

GREETINGS FROM THE UK

Hi guys, I'm a new holder of ADI, kept some EME but have moved most of my available cash here.

sit back, relax, and let it happen


----------



## Agentm

rolisatosser said:


> GREETINGS FROM THE UK
> 
> Hi guys, I'm a new holder of ADI, kept some EME but have moved most of my available cash here.
> 
> sit back, relax, and let it happen





welcome aboard, 

i cant wait for the ride to begin..

what made you decide to shift most of your exposure to SL into adi??


----------



## rolisatosser

agentm - mainly for the medium term and primarily for the SL shallows,  I did bail out of eme of most of my holding at 37p and now things have settled downhave decided to jump back in.  But eme are not conducting themselves properly.  adi appear to be a more professional outfit.
With their 20% of the so far announced acreage adi have far more to gain imo.
In the medium term it is my assessment is that adi's other projects especially NT have the more potential and possibly the less risk.
You will know me as jumping_jackflasher and that I have been following Couch's words for some time.  I have read every single comment he has ever made on the web as well as the viewable areas of his server!  A much maligned individual it seems.  Although the guy is not particularly my 'cup of tea', if you follow his words, you will see that he is quite a genuine guy when it comes to oil exploration.  If only all o&g companies gave his level of reporting combined with the way he puts across his information!


----------



## Agentm

hey i know you now.. 

i agree with couch.. the companies he runs are doing well, and they have their way of doing things much like all in texas.. 

Things are hotting up in texas as they say, and i somehow feel the talk of tcf potential is begining to be the norm when talking SL.

much is happening behind the scene, and i am aware the workover rig is on site at NT and they have announced they are testing the well in possibly right now.. all results will be issued immediately i am told, so i expect it to break any moment.

ADI has many projects about the place and management have not been sitting around waiting just for SL and NT, I tend to think the next 60 days will be the most interesting days for ADI as it becomes an oil and gas producer..


----------



## surfingman

NT will be frac tested, will that be because there not getting the flow rates expected from this well? Hope all comes good after frac.


----------



## Agentm

in all honesty, i think it had to be expected.

we need maverick again... but they had to use some incredible mudweights to stabalise the well and get equalibrium, and then were forced to remove the drill bit real slow and the safety of the rig and the crew was paramount then. 

The fracing processes can call in flushing techniques and all sorts of processes that are needed to overcome these type of problems. I cant see it as being a big deal, its not a unique situation by any means, and texas certainly has the best crews on the planet. Next week we get the flow results on NT, and it seems the pipeline is connected.


----------



## maverick11

Sounds like they encountered extreme pressures while drilling and had trouble stabilising the hole.  They may have even jarred the drill bit as a result??  The announcement today indicates that there may have been slight borehole damage due to the mud weights they were using to keep it open to remove the drill string.  This can either be physical damage from the drill string and mud pressures or even from the mud entering into the rock.  It was a new crew and rig, which may also be partly to blame??  Either way, nothing really out of the ordinary.

It seems the pipeline is in and fracturing is about to commence.  Fracturing is definitely nothing unusual and will maximise flow once it is opened up for production.  Next week...


----------



## fflintoff

*EME AGM - First reaction re Sugarloaf*

"Great News" " Extremely exciting" ref. SL 2ndries and Blocks A + B . Quotes from Frank. More to follow later today, if I get time"

From the ADVFN thread 12.30 BST.
Much more to follow later no doubt.
Frank is Frank Brophy from Perth WA. Technical Director of EME.


----------



## Agentm

look  forward to the news.. the secondaries are the key

i think tomorrow will be a very exciting day for adi..


----------



## surfingman

Whats that all about? Agent can you get an overview of the SL situation from EME Annual General Meeting please? 

P.S any NSW supporters out there great game!!!!!!!


----------



## fflintoff

*Liquids at sugarloaf ?*

...and testing this week!

From the ADVFN thread:-

freedosh - 23 May'07 - 13:44 - 39983 of 39986


Notes from the AGM by freedosh amateur secretarial services.

Usual formalities and votes passed including ability to issues shares to 20% of existing number at discretion of directors

Frank did an overview.
1st historical on Eagle, Glantal and SL all in the public domain and not requiring repetition.
SL deep was fracced at upper end of the deep zone (sands) and still no flow of any consequence due to poor permeability. Frank remains keen on the deep zone and does not preclude a return in another drill. EME costs were just under $1M (He confirmed to me that we still have £4.5M in the bank)
For the record SL is contained within “block B”. I shall return to “blocks” later.
The secondaries are in chalk and limestone and had “good” shows. ? 92ft. “may have liquids”
Testing starting “this week” and early results will take 2 weeks approx. “Watch out for announcements”
“Great news and extremely exciting”
Texas crude are excellent partners

“Blocks” – are not geographically clearly defined blocks of acreage, but should (I think) be considered more as “packages” bundled by their land agents
Block A contains the “very well known anonymous American multination” who have a flowing well including liquids. We are not partners in this well but have 7.5% (for 12.5% costs) of the remainder. Texas Crude are partners along with the major multinational (? Expected to declare this find within 2 months but must remain confidential until then).
A further adjacent well in which we are partnered spuds shortly
EME interest in Block A is for the shallows only (cretaceous carbonates and above) at this time. The multinational appears to have limited acreage within A and confined to their existing well.
The wells are drilled with a horizontal and costs are approx. $5M each. 

Block B. we have agreed an additional 20% costs for 12% taking our total (excluding SL) to 18%. This includes all depths (remember Frank remains enthused by the deeper zones as well). See also SL above. 
Excellent local infra stucture, but initial liquids may first be tankered.

EAGLE only delay is Vic Pet choosing a farmout/operator (yes there will be a new operator) for their share. 6 are short listed. Current estimated spud for (probably) a completely new and bigger diameter drill is Sept 2007. Clearly they remain very positive given the proven oil resource. It is an important target with lower risk than the potential blockbuster but very high risk Glantal.
Margarita.
Identified using Amplitude versus Offset”? AVO, a 3D variant. This technology has now been ratified by the first 3 shallow wells at little cost. Take about 10 days only to drill.
1st is water coned but not abandoned, just shut in pro tem (originally flowed 210 thou cu ft/d). 2nd. Milagros flowing nicely with 461 thousand cu ft/d and some liquids identified in the sidewall cores “can be expected to flow more liquids (? Oil) as the gas is taken off”. 3rd? 160 thou cu ft/d? Still testing and soon to be tied in.
3 more shallows to spud soon then onto 3 deeps, also identified by AVO.
These shallow wells can be expected to “payback” in an average 4 months. We pay 77% of costs for 44% earn, BUT only after recouping our costs thro an initial 90% earning flow to EME (more complicated formula but I didn’t take detailed notes here).

The general demeanor was different and happier this year. The whole board including Tom (nice guy) the FD, Frank and the Chairman were there and were open and seemed much more relaxed than last year.
Others please correct any errors and add where there are omissions.
Good luck all, I have come away far more positive than last year.
All the usual caveats. I have reported what I heard but DYOR etc. Not investment advice
freedosh


----------



## surfingman

Thanks for the info Fflintoff much appreciated, the multinational entity has my full attention always makes for exciting days ahead. 

Results taking 2 weeks, that is faster than expected. Look forward to hearing more....


----------



## Agentm

totally agree surfing guy..

you know this news is interesting. Sl is being tested, and the aussie shareholders have no knowledge, thankfully the EME board are keeping us informed..

I hope the JVP's have coordinated the news a little, and we may see some follow up announcements. I looked at the EME AGM rns, and it doesn not mention any news, just that all resolutions were passed, and they dont feel the testing of SL is newsworthy.

If Sl is being tested we will soon know, and i feel there is plenty of news to come from SL.. i maintain my view that the jvp's are looking at much higher prospective targets than 170bcf, i am convinced the testing will reveal what they truely suspect is a spectacular play, and with all the behind the scene activity i think the targets they are considering achievable are 1tcf+ ..  its not feasable for there to be this much interest and and forward planning for 170bcf,, the major oil companies are not into that type of play and for there to be one on the scene means significant reserves.

The fact that condensate is being mentioned again, and this time by a JVP director in public, is very interesting, I would say that will raise some eyebrows around texas, and confirms yet again the 100 wells on the oil alone that couch oil has proclaimed..

we also have a director of a JVP saying the sands are not out of the picture.. well thats gotta be worth investigating further dont you think?

i have been saying for some time the SL well was designed to TEST all zones of interest, and was never able to bee in the sweet spot for all plays.. and remember they are still buying acerage for ALL DEPTHS.. 

everything thats being said by EME is mirrored in all the announcements, you just have to understand what they mean by it..

people are selling their shares still at .75 when its worth $2+ easy.. there is statement from ADI saying 150bcf for the chalks, and I think we are way over that.. there is exceptional value across all jvps right now..

wont last long i feel..


----------



## Agentm

the news on testing doesnt fit entirely with what we know..

i seem to think if SL was about to be tested then we will be informed. 

I dont think that aspect of the info is correct,  i say SL will be tested as previously announced..

I think some of the information he posted was confused, and may be he is confusing the next well on block A spud with the testing???

lets see where this goes, i cant seem to get any confirmation on the testing dates being changed..


----------



## Dukey

*Re: Liquids at sugarloaf ?*

Partial quote only!!







fflintoff said:


> ...and testing this week!
> 
> From the ADVFN thread:-
> 
> freedosh - 23 May'07 - 13:44 - 39983 of 39986
> 
> .... The secondaries are in chalk and limestone and had “good” shows. ? 92ft. “may have liquids”
> *Testing starting “this week” and early results will take 2 weeks approx*. “Watch out for announcements”
> “Great news and extremely exciting”
> Texas crude are excellent partners
> ....
> 
> freedosh




It`s all a bit strange isn't it??  maybe bizarre is the correct word. 
The above statement from EME's AGM about testing and results seems to be very clear.

... and yet all the other JVP's remain silent  and the SP plummets today by 15% so far!!  (though volume is quite low as yet).

I don't get it.  Although I can understand some folks patience may be wearing thin, with delays at NT etc.

Anyone topping up at these prices??


----------



## Agentm

one seller getting out 50k.. at market..  just in a hurry..

i know plenty who have been and are buying..

EME did not make any official announcement on testing,, Alex has replied to an email from me, and its news to him!!

the guy must be confused at the AGM,, he is probably confusing the new well, which is due to go any day now, and the SL well.

There is no panic selling going on, just one hasty exit.. probably has somewhere better to go short term and needed to go in a hurry..

NT is about to be fracin fraced.. (excuse the french) and teh jvp's have secured amazing acerage.. and interestingly the EME guys are talking about wet suff,, the texas tea, which i find astounding. i would love to see any presentation or announcemetn from EME on reserves on the wet stuff, but so far we have only an eye witness to an AGM. with no follow on announcements from the JVP's or EME on anything they have declared verbally..

patience is required (and i am learning it real hard)


----------



## megla

Originally I got in at .90 in Feb, then .81, then @ .49 and recently at .61. I'm trusing my gut on this one and if it drops below .60 I think I will go in again, nothing like a bargain! Mind you, .60 for me is just an arbitrary number... nothing special or anything.

Of course if it goes south, then it aint no bargain, but through my rose coloured glasses everything looks good..


----------



## surfingman

Looks to be an exciting afternoon, a buy order for 57 000 @ .70 and recovering well with a little more support now starting to show....


----------



## Agentm

megla, you crack me up..

i was relating what you say exactly to myself.. I started pre magnolia (first well) and post magnolia when it was .24 and that was simply too good to miss.. I have bought again all the way into the 70's and 80's and topped up again last week at .76

I know its all about timing,, and mine isnt brilliant, but the rose coloured glasses got me.. i have them, and with blinkers..

In all seriousness, a lot of investors came in when alex did the road show in dec 06.. brokers spread the work and the sp went up on demand and on the pre hosston sands expectation,, its flowed, but wasnt commercial flow.. and if there was formation damage, or whatever, its all academic.. it seems EME have not lost sight of the play and dont discount it. and i am also a fan of the hosston sands, and have an open mind to a future on the play in another part of the lease (pure speculation)

Nt will deliver some short term stability and maybe a revisit to the 90's or above, but Sl has as we all know something else, and perhaps when the next well is announced and some detail of what it is drilling for, then i think a new perspective on the AMI will transpire..


----------



## cicak_kupang

It concerns me that we have an JVP saying things that ADI claims not to know nothing about.  Just doesnt sit good.  All i can think of, is it comes down to the laws of announcing what to the poublic in England must be vastly different than what we have here in oz.  That aside, if they are testing at SL now then that would warrant an announcement would it not.  Anyway, if they are indeed testing we will know about that when the results come through, cant hold that from us.......mmmm.
Well done whoever got in at the lower end of today.


----------



## wallave

I doubt that testing has started. It was only a week ago I think that the aus jv's came out with their explanation of where they stand after EME came out with the BLOCKa/BLOCKB announcement.  In that release they stated that testing is likely to commence in July.  
Obviously would be nice to have it started now, means that we don't have to wait another 2 months to see some serious action with the share price.  Until the aus jv's come out with another update changing their testing timetable I won't be getting my hopes up in anticipation of flow results in the next 2 weeks.
Just trying to be a realist.


----------



## Agentm

i was curious about frank Brophy at EME, he is the Technical Director of EME and has a fromidable record of 40 years under his belt as a geologist, and has headed up some fine oil companies. the recent comments reported by him has aroused my curiosity on what he is saying, its very interesting, and may be the reason why the AMI is buying acerage accross all depths..

he signed off on the 1st of may 2007 in the Annual reports and accounts in this fashion with his opinion on sugarloaf primary.. 

I note that an investor listened and discussed Sl and the sands with him the other day at the AGM.. but he isnt putting the SL primary to rest, and indicates mud weight may have contributed to no flow on the upper primary perforating and frac tests..

The well was cemented up to 18,900', and perforations were then made over 7 higher intervals between 18,199' - 18,689' where significant gas peaks had been encountered during drilling. These fine-grained sandstone intervals were then subjected to a fraccing procedure. On 12th March it was announced that the fraccing had achieved only minor gas recovery at a rate too small to measure.
There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow, despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could also have played a role in impeding gas flow.

I dont have the expertise and geologist background he does, but i feel they are not convinced the hosston sands are dead and buried..

i really dont get why they have to continue to mention the sands in the fashion they are, it may indicate there is consideration being given to the play again somewhere..

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm,
I think that AUT share Frank ´s opinion on the deeper sands:-

“Analysis of the results of the Hosston test have led to the conclusion that whilst still representing an exploration play with potential, in the medium term at least this deep play will not be allocated additional resources ahead of other assets within the portfolio.” 

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20070430.pdf


----------



## Agentm

thats spot on fflintoff

i think in terms of logic here, 

if they have spent over 10 mill on a well that may be getting minor flow due to damage and at the same time also have a pressing issue on the testing of the secondaries to consider. They may well have decided to just perforate and frac, and then flow test, and with mud weights like that its very possioble the flow was not coming or the formation damaged due to that alone.. having porosity as high as they did is absolutely astounding, no wonder they were so keen on them.

So if the flow didnt come, they had 2 choices, continue with high cost fracing processes and proceedures, and maybe get a weak flow, and maybe have to induce flow in all sorts of expensive ways, this would mean no further testing on the secondaries and all jvp's would suffer with a weak well and expensive cost overruns, and nothing to declare on the secondaries. (i am certain this was a consideration btw...)

or

call it quits, plug, pullup the pipe and then concentrate on the secondaries. the testing of the zones there is critical to how many and where they put the horizontally drilled wells next to go.. and develop them to their full potential in the near term is far more practical to all jvp's, it delivers income, and allows plenty of planning and further value to the jvp's by taking another shot at the primary with cash to burn and better data and understandings with seismics that no doubt are undertaken.
it goes without saying the secondaries are being seriously treated as major play, and 1tcf is not at all outside the realm of possibilty given the size and porosity they have in the chalks..


The sands have possibly still got something to offer, and if two of the JVP's are still announceing them as plausable, it follows the current mode of acerage being leased across all depths..

dont want to dwell on this too much, but imagine 1 -2 tcf in the sands and multi tcf and condensate in the secondaries..

goosebump territory.. 


so expanding that out a bit further, i am guessing the BLOCK A, BLOCK B situation is not easy to follow, as i believe they are more or less relating to depth rather than general acerage also.. so perhaps its a mix of chalks, and maybe edwards and hosston sands over perhaps 80 - 140+ square kilometers??? 

one thing is certain, no one is releasing any detail that makes it easy to understand. and for that reason alone it indicates there is plenty of reason to believe there is much there that is being kept off the record and away from the public view for the best interests of all the jvp's..

anyone been thinking this way also???

i cant wait for the jvp's to be given the green light to announce on this,, when it happens i can only see sreious bluesky here..

all IMHO and DYOR.. 
,


----------



## yogi-in-oz

yogi-in-oz said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ..... since the March 2007 equinox, we have seen ADI lift
> off its lows, then move sideways,  since  the highs at the
> end of March 2007.
> 
> Resistance over the past few days have put a ceiling on ADI's
> move and our time cycle analysis indicates that, this month
> (May 07) is likely to be mostly negative:
> 
> May 2007
> 
> 11052007 ..... negative news expected here.
> 
> 15052007 ..... another difficult cycle expected, at this time.
> 
> 21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ...
> 
> 29051007 ..... positive news expected here
> 
> =====
> 
> June 2007
> 
> 05062007 ..... minor cycle ... finance-related ???
> 
> 21-24062007 ..... positive light on ADI ... as two significant
> and positive cycles come into play ...
> 
> =====
> 
> July 2007
> 
> 13-16072007 ..... a significant and positive cycle here ... finance
> ... note the price on this day.
> 
> 23072007 ..... minor cycle here
> 
> =====
> 
> August 2007
> 
> 03-07082007 ..... minor news early in this period, with a negative
> reaction, as another negative time cycle,
> comes out to play.
> 
> 
> 10-13082007 ..... finances ???
> ... is price the same as  13-16072007 ??
> 
> 17-20082007 ..... significant and positive news expected here
> 
> 22-23082007 ..... positive spotlight on ADI
> 
> =====
> 
> September 2007
> 
> 27082007-to-03092007 ... a VERY NEGATIVE cycle could trigger
> a big  downmove, here ...
> 05092007 ... minor news ???
> 
> 21-24092007  ... minor
> 
> 27092007  ... 2 positive cycles should bring some news,
> triggering  an aggressive rally.    Note price.
> 
> =====
> 
> October 2007
> 
> 05-08102007  ... significant and positive ... finance-related ???
> 
> ... is price the same as  13-16072007 and/or 10-13082007 ... ???
> 
> 23102007 ... minor and positive light on ADI
> 
> 24102007 ... minor news??? ... same price as 27092007 ???
> 
> More later.
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====






Hi folks,

ADI .....  trading pretty much according to plan, so far ..... 

..... just need some positive news on 29052007, to lift it off
support again ..... but, would not be surprsed to see another 
test of the lows before that, on Monday (???)

happy days

 paul



=====


----------



## Agentm

hey ole yogi or god  or paul or who ever you are..

any chance with the blue moon coming along in june that you could put some of the good new all together in a neat package and bundle it into next week..

i also am quite prepared to convert to any religion or religious sect if it will improve the timings.

if you can conjure some real good gas flows at NT i would also be greatful

your disbelieving convert.  

AM.


----------



## rolisatosser

Guys, what is the expected timing for NT news to be released?

I'm guessing at well over another week, but expert opinion or more informed guess would be appreciated.

jjf


----------



## rolisatosser

Agentm, from the ARQ thread you said.....

if you pull up the shorters list on the asx you can see how much arq is being shorted

can you enlighten me how this is done, thanks


----------



## Agentm

in answer to your two questions.. 

6th June is firm date for NT frac test..


and shorters..

http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt

we have a a week and a half before they do anything on NT... and a great envelope of time to get great value on the buy side..


----------



## Agentm

May 2007

11052007 ..... negative news expected here.

15052007 ..... another difficult cycle expected, at this time.

21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ... 

29051007 ..... positive news expected here

=====

June 2007

05062007 ..... minor cycle ... finance-related ???

21-24062007 ..... positive light on ADI ... as two significant 
and positive cycles come into play ... 

=====



so yogi.. the 29th came and went... no positive news happened???

For me the next positive news that will have upside to the sp is the NT well test results. and they wont be around for a week at least.

The jvp's have given themselves plenty of time in delaying the SL testing and securing acerage, and now we will see other wells on the play spud. I am curious how much information will be released on the next well to go, and how much it will reflect on the JVP's sp in light of 16 wells being already considered on a play that is producing gas and oil. and the play not being announced as a discovery yet over $80 mill being thrown at it!!

despite adi making a very upbeat and bullish remark in their last announcement on SL, the market has not responded to it in any fashion. I imagine if GDN announced 16 wells their sp would go bluesky, but it seems the idea of a major oil comapny, a major play, and the possibly multi tcf has not attracted any notice and remains under the radar. is the market in total disbelief of this perhaps?

the first 16 wells costing $80 mill being planned for block A and B are not being discussed by any of the holders i see, nor the announcement by ADI that the flow test will set in place the following :




_The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture *is subject to* the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test._

"is subject to" is an affirmation of the well being a success.. SL is not in any way considered unsuccessful, and it will be the precursor for what will happen in terms of numbers of additional wells currently only set at $80 mill across two blocks of leases.. and absolutely no fanfare..

you dont spend that sort of cash on 100 bcf...????

all is see is the planning and preporations for what is done in the case of a major discovery, yet no announcement by JVP's of a discovery even with a second well announced by EME!!!


The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test i find it almost beyond belief that the recently raised expectations from ADI that the secondaries are 100 - 170 bcf.. and with the added statement that once testing has been completed they expect significant changes to the reserves to be announced.. but nothing happens.. 

All this has caused little excitement, and we see barely a trade on the stock now a days.. 

i see good buying opportunities at these prices...

​


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:
			
		

> i see good buying opportunities at these prices...




Really? It's funny that no-one else has, since its fall from 80c again. And obviously the big fat donut in the volume column shows that other people think there are great opportunities at these prices, doesn't it?


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> Really? It's funny that no-one else has, since its fall from 80c again. And obviously the big fat donut in the volume column shows that other people think there are great opportunities at these prices, doesn't it?




chops, let's see who is right and who is wrong in a few weeks when they flow test the secondaries at Sugarloaf, obviously some see opportunity at these levels and you don't.  That is fine...but the sniping really doesn't do anything for the thread.  Time will tell.  If you're right I am sure you will be back here to remind us.  Until then, take care :


----------



## chops_a_must

Broadside said:


> chops, let's see who is right and who is wrong in a few weeks when they flow test the secondaries at Sugarloaf, obviously some see opportunity at these levels and you don't.  That is fine...but the sniping really doesn't do anything for the thread.  Time will tell.  If you're right I am sure you will be back here to remind us.  Until then, take care :



The point is, none see opportunity at this level. 

People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months. 

So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.

WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.


----------



## surfingman

chops_a_must said:


> The point is, none see opportunity at this level.
> 
> People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniours over the last few months.
> 
> So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.
> 
> WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.




Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to be honest chops yours could be right at this stage, the flows test of NT will be the be all or end all of the ADI SP in the short term.... SL could be a while to its final

*NO* one will know until flow test results are final, I know one thing ADI is not being sold down either like many companies today .... whats that mean?????


----------



## Agentm

chops, i am still waiting for your figures and how you did your calculations last time you posted.. are you going to back up your figures with calculations? or just post here and there and not back things up with how you got to those conclusions..?


"People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months. "

Its a free market chops, No one disagrees with you there, you can say that about any stock, being insulting and calling it a dog and not refer to another that is performing better.. ADI has gone from .46 to .70 in the past 60 days,   sure there may be some O& G explorers performing better than 45% gain, but its going alright.

good luck to you and your derogitory remarks...




We are extremely aware of your negative view on ADI and its management, i assure you no one has missed that point from you,


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> The point is, none see opportunity at this level.
> 
> People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.
> 
> So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.
> 
> WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.




Hindsight, what a wonderful thing...there is always a stock that outperforms yours at any given time.  And you're presuming that ADI holders don't own any other stocks? You buy stocks that you believe will perform best for your investment timeframe.  For me, ADI fits that criterion and I don't regret the fact that exposure to Sugarloaf makes up a good percentage of my portfolio.  I will make the judgement as to whether I made the right decision when the results are in.  

For you obviously ADI doesn't pass the test, and you can't see any merit in the news already released by ADI and the other joint venture partners because they haven't quite joined the dots for you.  You see no significance in the news from EME a couple of weeks ago.  You see no reasons behind all the JVP's being conservative and discrete in their announcements.  That's fine, you can see it as a dog.  We will know who is right soon enough.


----------



## Gspot

chops_a_must said:


> The point is, none see opportunity at this level.
> 
> People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.
> 
> So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.
> 
> WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.




Chops a Must equates to Toss a Lot.
Your typical Dockers supporter really......bitter and twisted that gets off on slagging others. 
It's been dragging awhile now ADI holders, but worth riding.


----------



## Agentm

well it seems its the usual silence...  still waiting for the replies on the previous figures and i guess 40% or so increase in the past two months is considered a dog.. i cant agree with that.. 

I think its beyond doubt the sp will take off next week, i posted that before, and why chops is asking that is beyond me,, it is well known the NT well is being fraced next week..  the first sp gain will run with the NT news, then upwards from there as news breaks of others wells spuding on the play and then early july again once the Sl testing commences..

O & G explorers are interesting, until you can substantiate a find you get no value it seems, and thats where i feel the high risk high reward aspect comes into play.. some demonstrate no patience and make unsubstantiated remarks about the management..

i feel the share holds exceptional upside in the near term, not because they have not substantiated their reserves and i think its going to happen, i look at whats happening in and around the Sl play, and i cant see any activity there indicative of a dry well.. i certainly have accumulated enough and done enough research to allow me to accumulate the holding i have, and i like anyone to put their view in a balanced way, i just dont get why you have to have a crack at company without substantiating it with some balanced reasoning..

each to their own,,


----------



## fflintoff

chops_a_must said:


> The point is, none see opportunity at this level.
> 
> People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.
> 
> So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.
> 
> WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.




******************

It seems like that chops is an alias of that other idiot on ADVFN namely Robin of no advice?


----------



## sandlion

Hi All,

My first post here. I am relatively new to the world of trading despite having worked in the O & G sector for some years. I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their insight, and that I personally have faith in ADI. Try holding GDN... 

At work we are tipping Arrow Energy and LNG in Gladstone, based on industry chatter. I also got in on ESG which has been nice and steady...if you like weird ideas though...you will love Linc Energy! LNC...seems to be heading in the right direction...


----------



## chance fate

... just a bearish challenge for the thread given it tends to be very bullish at times (not a bad thing!) ... i haven't read anywhere in any of ADI's presentations that it intends to drill 16 wells....  only 2 more shallow wells in 2007(8?)...  further they're running with a P50 reserves estimate of 100Bcf on SL (which is good - and possibly conservative given ADI acreage acquisition activity)...  but is still subject to test... reserves can't be booked until there is physical evidence to do so - ADI/JV would only have wireline logs at this stage... and maybe some pressure data... that's not enough..   not saying that any of the bullish stuff is not possible...  but it's just that at this stage - a possibility -and i don't believe that the SP should contain alot of value for that until further info. comes into the market...  good luck to adi holders on NT next week - hope the frac is successful...


----------



## chance fate

....just wanted to point out that some of the gains by the oil juniors (and majors) over the last few months has been due to the shift in oil price from low 50's to mid 60's....  be careful .. whilst the global supply demand equation is really tight... it could fall back again....  that'd be the right time to buy IMO...


----------



## chops_a_must

Gspot said:


> Chops a Must equates to Toss a Lot.
> Your typical Dockers supporter really......bitter and twisted that gets off on slagging others.
> It's been dragging awhile now ADI holders, but worth riding.



Good to see we can have a really friendly and intelligent discussion about the pros and cons of this stock.


fflintoff said:


> ******************
> 
> It seems like that chops is an alias of that other idiot on ADVFN namely Robin of no advice?



An idiot wouldn't have seen his profit cut in half, that's for sure.


sandlion said:


> Hi All,
> 
> My first post here. I am relatively new to the world of trading despite having worked in the O & G sector for some years. I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their insight, and that I personally have faith in ADI. Try holding GDN...
> 
> At work we are tipping Arrow Energy and LNG in Gladstone, based on industry chatter. I also got in on ESG which has been nice and steady...if you like weird ideas though...you will love Linc Energy! LNC...seems to be heading in the right direction...



How dare you post about clearly trending stocks that chops has been on for ages!!

And Agentm, we can talk about the potential blah blah until the cows come home. 1tcf this, 1 tcf that. ESG has what, 1.5tcf gas in place with highly encouraging preliminary results and huge contracts already in place. ADI may have the same, minus whatever the other companies cut. But that's meaningless. What does tell you a lot is the trend, and insider buying. All that the volume has done for ADI is to bring the stock down since March. With no serious boys coming to play, to help out.

But... I suppose all the "keep the faith on SL or dust cake", whatever the well is called, mass private messages will be arriving in the inboxes of the faithful towards the end of the week. Good luck, and if it doesn't fail with stale bulls at 80c, it'll be interesting. I wouldn't hold my breath though.


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> ... just a bearish challenge for the thread given it tends to be very bullish at times (not a bad thing!) ... i haven't read anywhere in any of ADI's presentations that it intends to drill 16 wells.... only 2 more shallow wells in 2007(8?)... further they're running with a P50 reserves estimate of 100Bcf on SL (which is good - and possibly conservative given ADI acreage acquisition activity)... but is still subject to test... reserves can't be booked until there is physical evidence to do so - ADI/JV would only have wireline logs at this stage... and maybe some pressure data... that's not enough.. not saying that any of the bullish stuff is not possible... but it's just that at this stage - a possibility -and i don't believe that the SP should contain alot of value for that until further info. comes into the market... good luck to adi holders on NT next week - hope the frac is successful...




ADi has been the least clear on the 16 wells, and its beyond doubt the EME announcement has done little to assist the JVP's in their persuits in the AMI. its a jvp partner that has said the 16 wells could be on both block A and block B. two of the jvp's have chosen to answer that, ADi has not entirely answered that.

ADI has as you say, announced 2 shallow wells which, none of the JVP's have followed up with that.

I agree only the testing will bring them the complete data that fill the picture.

I ask you chance of fate, why can ADI get a workover rig and frac crew on site at NT in a matter of weeks and it takes 6 months for one to be at sugarloaf..

if you tell me EME is participating in a 16 well program and and is ill advised..

what insider trading do they have then? how can EME know what is about to happen and the JVP's with EME does not??

Obviously the likes of chops and you believe that EME has no clue what its doing committing to a 16 well program and the JVP's aare sitting on a dry well..

so be it,, invest accordingly, i hope you both sell before the news gets out, i have bought and will stay until they at least put down 16 wells.. we all have our our own choices..

everyone has their own strategy on shares, i buy and risk, you sell and buy somewhere else.  i dont care what you invest in or do.. i simply comment on adi as i have an interest in it like others do around here.. if abuse is needed and required so be it, i have no need to answer it any more, i am beyond that.. i have bought post magolia, pre magnolia pre sl primary and post sl primary.. i will continue to buy and enjoy the success of investing in a company with exceptional management and great planning for the future, i look forward to indonesia, and the new wells at Nt and other ventures in the gulf.. and i look particularily forward to africa and the alliance.

SL and NT are only the start up for ADI, and i dont particularily care if others dont follow that understanding, invest in whatever you like, but dont get personal, you only make a fool of yourselves!!


----------



## fflintoff

"I ask you chance of fate, why can ADI get a workover rig and frac crew on site at NT in a matter of weeks and it takes 6 months for one to be at sugarloaf.."

######################

agentm,
Are they stalling until Jul so that they can assess the results of the next well in Block A together with the SL 1 well testing program?
TCEI are the Operator for SL & a partner in the Block A program with the major.


----------



## chance fate

...  agentM..  personally with my bull hat on.. i really like the idea that the JV's are buying acreage...that's why i'm still holding EKA with a paper loss (DYOR)...  but on the same token I'm not prepared to concede the value that this would imply...   much as I'd like it....  on the bearish side...  it's not beyond the realms of possibility they could end up with some problems with SL and the acquisition would have been fruitless....  I'm holding and patient, just like with GDN, until the test results come out...  I'm prepared to take the risk.... and that's because I've got a strong preference not to have to go back to the 9-5 grind....  so I realise I'm taking a very risky road and lucky that personal finances are covered for a few months...which some wouldn't care for... and hoping at least one of them comes good... but have sent my CV out as a contingency anyhow!!!


----------



## chance fate

...oh and by the way if one of them does come off I'm off to Nexus asap and Karoon before the end of the year...  they've got some very interesting prospects in the Browse Basin as long as the LNG market delivers....


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> Good to see we can have a really friendly and intelligent discussion about the pros and cons of this stock.
> 
> An idiot wouldn't have seen his profit cut in half, that's for sure.
> 
> How dare you post about clearly trending stocks that chops has been on for ages!!
> 
> And Agentm, we can talk about the potential blah blah until the cows come home. 1tcf this, 1 tcf that. ESG has what, 1.5tcf gas in place with highly encouraging preliminary results and huge contracts already in place. ADI may have the same, minus whatever the other companies cut. But that's meaningless. What does tell you a lot is the trend, and insider buying. All that the volume has done for ADI is to bring the stock down since March. With no serious boys coming to play, to help out.
> 
> But... I suppose all the "keep the faith on SL or dust cake", whatever the well is called, mass private messages will be arriving in the inboxes of the faithful towards the end of the week. Good luck, and if it doesn't fail with stale bulls at 80c, it'll be interesting. I wouldn't hold my breath though.




how is that chip on your shoulder chops?  you'd best hope that Sugarloaf is a duster or it could be unbearable.  Some advice for you, don't get emotional about stocks.  ADI obviously didn't work out for you, better luck next time.


----------



## chops_a_must

Broadside said:


> how is that chip on your shoulder chops?  you'd best hope that Sugarloaf is a duster or it could be unbearable.  Some advice for you, don't get emotional about stocks.  ADI obviously didn't work out for you, better luck next time.



It's fine.

I was just responding tactfully to abuse.

I couldn't care less if SL is a winner or not. I've made an absolute crap load of money on energy/ oil stocks. AED, AOE, ESG, NWE, MEL... I could go on and on here. All in the time ADI has halved. 

I got out at breakeven for what it's worth, so I really don't care. I just make a point of challenging spruikers and rampers (particularly like today when a blatant untruth is told), no matter what I hold or what I don't. You can check the AED and INL threads for evidence of this.

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. there are so many undervalued no brainers in this market, in production/ close to, that there is simply no need to gamble. Of course that is if you have the awareness to realise.


----------



## Broadside

chops_a_must said:


> I just make a point of challenging spruikers and rampers (particularly like today when a blatant untruth is told), no matter what I hold or what I don't.




Ah yes, Agent M posted "_All this has caused little excitement, and we see barely a trade on the stock now a days..

i see good buying opportunities at these prices..._"

what a blatant untruth! an observation followed by an opinion!  for shame Agent M.

Glad you're making money in the market, a few of us are, even us dimwitted ADI holders!  But after I have sold a stock, even if it doesn't work out for me, I let it go.  That's why I observe that you have a chip on your shoulder, and why you will be desperately hoping Sugarloaf and NT are dusters.  

I can't be bothered arguing with you any more.  Do what you like, just try and be civil.  Ciao.


----------



## Agentm

_And Agentm, we can talk about the potential blah blah until the cows come home. 1tcf this, 1 tcf that. ESG has what, 1.5tcf gas in place with highly encouraging preliminary results and huge contracts already in place. ADI may have the same, minus whatever the other companies cut. But that's meaningless. What does tell you a lot is the trend, and insider buying. All that the volume has done for ADI is to bring the stock down since March. With no serious boys coming to play, to help out.

But... I suppose all the "keep the faith on SL or dust cake", whatever the well is called, mass private messages will be arriving in the inboxes of the faithful towards the end of the week. Good luck, and if it doesn't fail with stale bulls at 80c, it'll be interesting. I wouldn't hold my breath though._


No need to concern yourself chops, i have been accumulating ADI for years now, and not about to stop.  thanks for the kind thoughts, I will continue to post here and discuss. really good to see your making a lot of gains on other stocks too, i hope it continues.. great to hear..


----------



## megla

WOW!!

You'd think with all the hot air and energy being generated here that it would attract more attention in the outside world.

Think rational guys, it's only money, and you can't take it with you.


----------



## Agentm

megla said:


> WOW!!
> 
> You'd think with all the hot air and energy being generated here that it would attract more attention in the outside world.
> 
> Think rational guys, it's only money, and you can't take it with you.





you crack me up on every post..

i was wondering how difficult it is to have a JVP partner proclaim they are in another JVP on the same play and investing in 16 wells across both plays, so on those wells alone $80 mill is being invested.   It caused some constination with AUT and EKA with denials of knowlege of the major oil company, and saying more will be revealed when testing is completed. 

what really shakes the boat is that EME claims they are on block A and B, then we have ADI not supporting that. But stating the number of wells will be revealed only afetr testing SL..

I still maintain the EME move to run with TCE in the other block on the same play on the next well, which makes it the third well to go if you count the one that they refer to as already producing, and with 15 more at least planned until testing is completed, it seems a touch excessive for a 150bcf play?

ADI and all the JVP's have indicated reserves will be adjusted once testing is completed, using data from 3 wells will certainly fill the picture for them..


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> "I ask you chance of fate, why can ADI get a workover rig and frac crew on site at NT in a matter of weeks and it takes 6 months for one to be at sugarloaf.."
> 
> ######################
> 
> agentm,
> Are they stalling until Jul so that they can assess the results of the next well in Block A together with the SL 1 well testing program?
> TCEI are the Operator for SL & a partner in the Block A program with the major.





hey flintoff..

if the next well about to go is drilled in the next week, then 6 weeks of drilling a horizontal well will mean july is about spot on for the testing there, so having two wells tested on the same play simaltaneously will make for some interesting data and give the combined JVP's great insights into how many wells, what type, where and when...

they are certainly making it very clear there is no rush, and they will do it thier way and at their pace, for an investor its frustrating to see 6 months delays on testing, but i am convinced the fact that EME believes it warrants investing in 80 mill of wells is enough to convince me they are not chasing 170 bcf.. I have invested accordingly.. 

hey we all wanted the hosston sands to flow, and it did, but not at commercial rates, and the porosity figures eme let out are very promising, they absolutely have not written off the sands according to those who attended the EME agm and listened to frank brophys speech.. 

if the sands are being looked at, i would say they are not going to be drilled until after the seconday austin chalks are commenced and productive.

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## sandlion

Wow...my first post and I got flamed, albeit by the most unpopular person on this thread..! I don't even feel unique...in fact I feel kind of dirty

Anyway, ADI will go well. That NT is a winner, trust the people who know the people who work on the rigs....it's true...you don't get a workover rig onsite at the drop of a hat.


----------



## Agentm

hey sandlion  its feels great to get a pasting every now and again.. 



i learned the other day that a workover rig is in the majority of cases is sourced only in the state you drill, its unusual for a cross border frac crew and rig to be used, so each state has hundreds of rigs and crews and usually companies can tender for the job.. sometimes the ones you select may not be available immediately.. i believe its the case here.


----------



## The Bookeeper

Fortune favours the brave   

Have been in this stock for a while.
Reason why i am involved in this stock is due to the 'potential' i see in it.

Potential i see:  

NT well being commercial. This is based on the fact that those involved went ahead and built a pipeline to it before fraccing. Seems weird to expend money on a pipeline if they are not fully confident that it is commercial. If not, board will have a lot to answer for.

SL has upside. 
The SL well is an interesting prospect. The significant gas showings received in this well in the shallows is an exciting prospect. If it comes through, its the second commecial well for ADI. If SL 1 doesnt end up being commercial, the fact they had significant gas showings hopefully means somewhere else in the formation that they can tap into a commercial well. All the mapping in the world can still not give a 100% result, hence why we have 'dusters'. SL can be seen as a descovery well to assist in further mapping and drilling in the area. 

Regarding the workover rig, and how quickly one went to NT compared to SL. NT well was close to existing infrastructure.  The sooner online, the parties involved can start receiving a cash flow from operations. The delay has also allowed further time for the JVP's to purchase more acerage rights near the SL target area. 

I still believe ADI is a spec stock. It has a few wells planned for drilling in the near future and an exciting alliance that has been formed to check out prosepects in africa etc. 

ADI will not suit all investors. I am invested in ADI as part of my overall investment plan, and it is based on my risk profile. 

All i can say is for people to invest within their risk profile. 

Best of luck for all on the forums here. Be it with ADi or another stock.


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> you crack me up on every post..
> 
> i was wondering how difficult it is to have a JVP partner proclaim they are in another JVP on the same play and investing in 16 wells across both plays, so on those wells alone $80 mill is being invested.   It caused some constination with AUT and EKA with denials of knowlege of the major oil company, and saying more will be revealed when testing is completed.
> 
> what really shakes the boat is that EME claims they are on block A and B, then we have ADI not supporting that. But stating the number of wells will be revealed only afetr testing SL..
> 
> I still maintain the EME move to run with TCE in the other block on the same play on the next well, which makes it the third well to go if you count the one that they refer to as already producing, and with 15 more at least planned until testing is completed, it seems a touch excessive for a 150bcf play?
> 
> ADI and all the JVP's have indicated reserves will be adjusted once testing is completed, using data from 3 wells will certainly fill the picture for them..




Agentm,
The deep sands are still in the mix in the medium term according to both EME & AUT who are snapping up deals & land at Block A & Longhorn and Ipanema resp. EME have planned 16 wells minimum so far, so plenty of opportunities there. Could be considerably more if they drill separate wells for each production zone.
EME mentioned 9% porosity in their annuals which is surely too tempting not to have another pop at some point down the line?
These are the relevant extracts:-

“Significant gas shows reappeared at 18,190' following the interception of the primary objective, the Hosston sandstones at 17,950'. These gas shows continued intermittently throughout the sequence until the total depth (T.D.) of 20,896' was reached on the 28th November 2006. The logs run at TD show a net pay of between 90 - 140' over an interval 1,700' (19,700' - 18,000') using a 6% porosity cut-off. The most prospective sand was 17' thick showing a calculated porosity of 9%.”

“There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow, despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could also have played a role in impeding gas flow”


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> Agentm,
> The deep sands are still in the mix in the medium term according to both EME & AUT who are snapping up deals & land at Block A & Longhorn and Ipanema resp. EME have planned 16 wells minimum so far, so plenty of opportunities there. Could be considerably more if they drill separate wells for each production zone.
> EME mentioned 9% porosity in their annuals which is surely too tempting not to have another pop at some point down the line?
> These are the relevant extracts:-
> 
> “Significant gas shows reappeared at 18,190' following the interception of the primary objective, the Hosston sandstones at 17,950'. These gas shows continued intermittently throughout the sequence until the total depth (T.D.) of 20,896' was reached on the 28th November 2006. The logs run at TD show a net pay of between 90 - 140' over an interval 1,700' (19,700' - 18,000') using a 6% porosity cut-off. The most prospective sand was 17' thick showing a calculated porosity of 9%.”
> 
> “There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow, despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could also have played a role in impeding gas flow”




I totally understand and agree with what your saying, there is little doubt the sands are not being written off, with all depths being clearly stated as the prime directive on acerage.. whether the sands come to life is speculation, but the porosity is obviously too tempting to leave out..

bookeeper has posted one of the best posts i have seen for a while, there is considerable risk in all O&G explorers, and once you are able to remove emotion and think with reason, and research well, there are opportunities in many companies in the sector, and i love hearing people making a killing on them..


----------



## tomcat

Guys,

With the frac crew starting tomorow does anyone know how long they would estimate this process to take. Are we talking days to flow results?


----------



## sandlion

flow test results should be pretty quick to come in, however they usually have to let the background frac gas (if using CO2 say) vent/disperse before doing flow tests


----------



## mick z

posted on hc.

New Taiton is a project that's easy to take a " ho-hum " attitude towards, because of the 25% working interest, and the lack of raz-ma-taz,,, but Garcitas Ranch was about the same, and now has the potential to be a large money earner for the company, with an additional 8 production wells planed..!!

There has previously proven to be a degree of " prediction value ", in looking at the success rates of surrounding wells in the same fairway, and adjacent to the AZZ.....joint venture leases..

New Taiton is of course in Wharton County, and the surrounding wells of interest are owned by two American companys,,,,,Coastal Oil & Gas,,,,,and ,,,,Trans Texas Gas Corp.....Some as close as 10 klm.

Trans Texas Gas Corp:-

Two old wells , 10,300 ft to 11,700 ft. :- One has been producing for more than 2 years and still produces 13mmcf/d...
One new well producing at 15mmcf/d

Coastal Oil & Gas :-

5 new wells deeper at approx 14,500 ft :- Producing at between 6 to 23 mmcf/d..
These wells encountered Wilcox sands at the old original level of 10,300 ft to 11,700 ft ,,, but also encountered 5 additional Wilcox pay sands at the 14,000 ft plus level..!

All of the above wells were " over pressured ",, just like New Taiton.
The over pressure level seems to kick in at around 10,000 ft,,, and increases progressively at a rate of .8 to .85 psi per foot of additional deepth.

A gas analyses indicates that gas from the upper and lower levels are similar in composition,, and contain traces of nitrogen,, and about 2.5% of CO2...
This composition tends to be a bit corrosive , and shorten the life of the wellbore,,, BUT the other companys seem to be managing this OK..

New Taiton is a fault play,, So they need to have the targeting correct.
This should'nt be a problem, as it has been described as a " robust trap, clearly defined by 3D seismic "..
At the 17,000 ft level, they should have encountered at least one upper and 3 lower zones.
With the lease at 1787 acres, if successful,,should sustain 5 wells all up..[ that's an opinion, NOT a fact ].

My prediction, is that they may produce from three zones,, one upper and at least 2 lower,, IF they get it right...!!!!

AND if they DO,,,, It may be surprisingly good ..!!


----------



## blues

Spoke to Alex Forcke this morning and he said the New Taiton fraccing operations are due to commence later today and we will make our next announcement upon obtaining definitive flow results from that well which is expected to take a number of days. 

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> Spoke to Alex Forcke this morning and he said the New Taiton fraccing operations are due to commence later today and we will make our next announcement upon obtaining definitive flow results from that well which is expected to take a number of days.
> 
> Cheers.





same as what i got yesterday...

it seems adi are interested in only putting out results, no speculation allowed!!


----------



## mick z

blues said:


> Spoke to Alex Forcke this morning and he said the New Taiton fraccing operations are due to commence later today and we will make our next announcement upon obtaining definitive flow results from that well which is expected to take a number of days.
> 
> Cheers.





is it to much trouble for adi to post announcement to that affect, after all we are shareholders of the company. i cant see why i have to read azz announcements ! that's the only thing i don't like about this company, they keep all the info to close to there chest. and that's part of the reason the sp is down so often.

mick


----------



## Agentm

mick z said:


> is it to much trouble for adi to post announcement to that affect, after all we are shareholders of the company. i cant see why i have to read azz announcements ! that's the only thing i don't like about this company, they keep all the info to close to there chest. and that's part of the reason the sp is down so often.
> 
> mick




i dont know if its that alone that is causing the selling.. the volume stays low, so i feel its just people leaving for various reasons,  or taking profit incase NT doesnt flow.. but i hear its a standard frac, no big deal, and the well is connected to the pipeline..

they are facing right now, so it wont be long for the results.. i know they are not going to sit on them, so i think its days not weeks..

its all good news from here on..NT flow results (hopefully).. next well on block A... then Sl testing.. then we get delivered the verdict,  how many wells, where, when...  all looking like nice upside to me..


----------



## resourceboom

I don't think there is any chance of getting flow results tomorrow, but it would be great if they put ADI / AZZ into a TH pending these results as this would suggest they are getting good flows, and just need more time to get definative results!


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## Agentm

i was thinking about what NT will offer ADi and looked through the may report from AZZ.. these are the gems they put out on NT:

http://www.antaresenergy.com/index.php?page=asxAnnouncements&year=2007

_The New Taiton project was finally drilled with the Ilse-1 well reaching a depth of 17,000 feet, with very strong gas and condensate shows within the targeted Wilcox reservoirs. We are eagerly anticipating the production testing of this well which should commence within a few days._​ 




•*Drilled five exploration and one appraisal well*
Harrison-1​Ilse-1
Lonesome Dove-1 x (the only failed well)
Scott-2
Garcitas Ranch C1
Garcitas Ranch C-2

83% success rate

on slide 13 they announce Ilse as a *gas discovery*, and in that slide the well is not listed as having gas condensate. so it seems they believe the current deeps will be gas only and obviously the upper zones had condensate for later prodution.. none the less its declared there.. then they add a future well Ilse 2.

Its hard to understand if the second well is for the same play or the other taget in the lease. 


ADI on the other hand have been completely cold on it, if they declare anything like that then their sp could be speculated on, so they have opted for a conservative approach in reporting Ilse 1..


On the slide presentation AZZ place ilse 1 on their production schedule for june,, and by the fact its already hooked up to the gas pipeline, they are keen as to get revenue, and i have high hopes for this well as it risk profile was always low adn i hope after the frac test, that the flow rates will be significant on this overpressurised play.. 

​


all imho and dyor


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## Broadside

when do you think we will get some results?  Tuesday? Monday is a public holiday.  Looking forward to the next couple of months and a resumption of information flow from the JVPs.


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## Agentm

its already been faced, so its now in the part where they extract fluids and commence flow testing... so in days they will have the definitive results they are so keen to have..

3 day long weekend, means by tuesday they know everything..

so if you buying now, its good timing,,   

not much mass selling happening, so i assume the news so far must be great...

all imho and dyor


----------



## maverick11

Agentm said:


> so if you buying now, its good timing,,




I'm am!!   If NT gives bad news next week, they will side cut the hole and re-drill.  The gas is there, so it's just a matter of timing.  If it is good, well then.. that is just a bonus.  I'm in this for SL baby!


----------



## Broadside

maverick11 said:


> I'm am!!   If NT gives bad news next week, they will side cut the hole and re-drill.  The gas is there, so it's just a matter of timing.  If it is good, well then.. that is just a bonus.  I'm in this for SL baby!




AZZ $1.03 +0.05 has to bode well for ADI on a fairly bleak day for the wider market.  Have a great long weekend everyone, hoping for some good news on Tuesday.


----------



## maverick11

Broadside said:


> AZZ $1.03 +0.05 has to bode well for ADI on a fairly bleak day for the wider market.  Have a great long weekend everyone, hoping for some good news on Tuesday.




have been keeping an eye on AZZ for over 12 months now and they seem to be a little leaky.  Up over 7% today so hopefully this is good news for NT in what appears to be a day of red.


----------



## Agentm

I see one of the founding investors in Baraka, Mr Isselmou Ould Didi Ould Tajedine has increased his position in the BKP, which may mean something in terms of the alliance perhaps? BKP need to get something off the ground, and i was given the impression that the alliance was not going to enter a MOU for the sake of notoriety, but for the practical purpose of achieving access to _A variety of __projects including production, rejuvenation, development, near field exploration and frontier exploration are likely to be considered by the Alliance members_

In terms of near term, the NT well is of significant importance to ADI, with the failure at magnolia, and the inability to progress on the SL well whilst TCE keeps the project on ice, NT will bring in immediate revenue, vital to ADI and in terms of the O&G explorers on the market, there are many out there with offshore and onshore finds and no production as yet, ADI is progressing into a producer in a very rapid time, and i had invested only for one of the two wells to be a success. there are very good signs and indications right now that the NT well is about to deliver all holders some great reward..

SL will eventually be fired up again next month, the pipe would have been recovered at the site and the well prepared for the extensive frac and testing about to be undertaken, no rush there, and the frustration of waiting nearly 12 months for the frac is going to be well rewarded many times over..

great days ahead still in my view

all imho and dyor


----------



## surfingman

I am hoping for some news this week, does anyone expect a results of the NT frac test in tomorrows report or the following week?


----------



## chance fate

EKA strangely had a relatively high volume today... is an announcement on sugarloaf testing commencement expected imminently?  guess we'll find out tomorrow....  assuming ADI will mention something in the ususal wednesday annoucement..


----------



## surfingman

13 June 2007
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

Operations Update

Ilse 1 Well (New Taiton Prospect) – Adelphi 25% Interest

Adelphi Energy Limited advises that fracture stimulation operations over a total 16 foot perforated interval in the Lower Wilcox section of the Ilse 1 well (at a depth of approximately 16,780 feet) were undertaken on 6 June 2007. Since that time, approximately 38% of total frac fluid has been recovered from the well bore. 

Intermittent gas flows recorded during that period have so far only been at sub-commercial rates. The well is currently shut in to undertake a pressure build up survey before recommencing flow testing operations and to obtain gas samples. Until additional frac fluid has been recovered from the well and further pressure and gas flow data has been obtained, it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the commercial flow potential from this zone.

Further updates will be provided to shareholders as additional information from this test becomes available. Over the coming days the joint venture parties will also be reviewing forward options in relation to the testing of the other potential pay intervals in the Upper Wilcox (at depths of up to 14,600 feet).


----------



## Bel

Not looking good. Look for a good 'buying' opportunity in the next few days as I'm suspecting something of a small sell off to occur.

Still holding, still hopeful. (primarily over SL secondaries anyway)


----------



## Bel

Yep there she sinks. Down 18% today. It's been nothing but a string of bad news for months now. Speculators always seems to be the one with no finger nails.

Chew chew chew.


----------



## blues

Rang the company this morning to ask some questions about the New Taiton results which are very disappointing but no one was available to take my call. They have said they will ring me back. Be interesting to find out why you would lay a pipeline etc before knowing the well will flow!

Cheers.


----------



## Lucky_Country

I definately dont think the NT play is dead far from it just feel that the zone they tested is not the pay dirt as they had trouble even drilling that far down.
We should know the full story soon enough and hopefully will rebound the sp IMHO


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## maverick11

They put in infrastructure and are planning another well in NT within the next 12 months.  There is nothing to indicate that the testing program is necessarily going pear shaped as it would be highly unlikely for gas to flow when it is still choked with 68% of the frac fluid.  They also indicated the hole was damaged before they began and the reasons for this could be numerous, right down to poor ground conditions.  They also don’t indicate whether they are having trouble recovering the fluid or whether they are just behind schedule (yeah right, as if hehe) which is something to keep in mind.  It’s just going to be an issue of timing on this one, and the waiting game is what adi holders do best.  Besides, SL next month… I topped up again


----------



## Lucky_Country

By the wat wheres AgentM when you need him if anyone can cheer us up he can !
Im sure he will sort out the cryptic clues given in the statement and make us all feel good again


----------



## tomcat

Just a few spooked day traders from the looks of it. With over 100 million shares out there the big players are waiting for SL.

I also agree with Lucky_Country and Maverick...NT may not be dead and buried just yet.


----------



## tomcat

Lucky_Country said:


> By the wat wheres AgentM when you need him if anyone can cheer us up he can !
> Im sure he will sort out the cryptic clues given in the statement and make us all feel good again




He is too busy buying  I reckon he will back with comments soon..............Seems the price is slowly heading back


----------



## Agentm

it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the commercial flow potential from this zone.


lets wait until they finish..  in no way can they say whether its commercial or not, but you can take a perspective here in this that there is an positive outcome still available, just as a negative outcome is possible..

there is definate formation damage, that has been said already,  the perforating confirmed that, the frac has yet to be concluded..  and they indicate the other zones, which have condensate, are also considered.

not the worst announcement, as i see the worst being when they say its not commercial, and many questions need to be answered still..


----------



## megla

Bel said:


> Yep there she sinks. Down 18% today.




If only it went further I could have picked up some more. I wanted it to go below 45, then I would have picked up a bundle, but alas.

Although I'm only going on gut feel for this one, I have enjoyed each piece of bad news, as I can acquire more and lower my dollar cost average. Then sit patiently and wait it to rise from the ashes...


----------



## maverick11

megla said:


> If only it went further I could have picked up some more. I wanted it to go below 45, then I would have picked up a bundle, but alas.
> 
> Although I'm only going on gut feel for this one, I have enjoyed each piece of bad news, as I can acquire more and lower my dollar cost average. Then sit patiently and wait it to rise from the ashes...




not the only one mate   I also picked up some more this morning at the bottom.  I feel the sp didn't really have NT factored into it anyways and it always seems to crash hard then recover quickly on news such as this.


----------



## mick z

megla said:


> If only it went further I could have picked up some more. I wanted it to go below 45, then I would have picked up a bundle, but alas.
> 
> 
> megla, i don't understand your logic, obviously you think both n/t and s/l are going to be dusters, if it drops from the current sp of 60c to under 45c, well adi is in big trouble, why would you want to buy? what forward project are you looking at ? because your certainly not looking at n/t or s/l.
> 
> mick


----------



## Sprinter79

Why have so many people fallen in love with this stock???

Isn't that one of the main 'rules' of trading?

I liken this to building a 'ramp' and trying to jump off it with my bike, only to have a spectacular 'crash' and go off crying to mum heheheh

If only Adelphi could do this as well as they make ham :


mmmmmmmm ham *insert :homer: drool*


----------



## Broadside

Sprinter79 said:


> Why have so many people fallen in love with this stock???
> 
> Isn't that one of the main 'rules' of trading?
> 
> I liken this to building a 'ramp' and trying to jump off it with my bike, only to have a spectacular 'crash' and go off crying to mum heheheh
> 
> If only Adelphi could do this as well as they make ham :
> 
> 
> mmmmmmmm ham *insert :homer: drool*




A lot of people have high expectations for Sugarloaf, Sprinter which makes it easier to shrug off disappointment at NT.  If Sugarloaf goes sour I am sure then you will see wailing and gnashing of teeth, but I don't think it will happen.


----------



## Agentm

i invested in this stock due to ADI taking on a high risk high reward approach to their projects, Magnolia, and Sl were in that catagory, and NT was in the lower risk area of all the projects.

Currently NT is a well not easy to understand, and the data you get from seismics is always going to differ from what you really have when you drill, porosity and permiability are contributors, as are many factors. 


trying to understand this is not as easy as it seems.. talking to adi you get the impression the situation is unclear as to what is happening, when you have a overpressurised zone, and a potential blowout situation, and are forced to stop drilling and carefully case in, then after perforating.. nothing... then frac and only 38% of the fluids are coming back..??  
so whats happening now does not exactly correlate to what happened on the drill.. so where did the pressure come from? and whats holding it back? when you drill your conditioning the hole to stop the pressure from escaping into the hole, then you have to later on reverse that and condition the hole to allow that pressure as much access as possible.



i dont get the feeling the jvp's have decided the fate of this well just yet, there was condensate in the upper wilcox, and there are other zones of interest..  and the frac program on NT aint over yet, but it is not behaving as one had expected so far..

i believe they said:

_Adelphi Energy Limited advises that fracture stimulation operations over a total 16 foot perforated interval in the Lower Wilcox section of the Ilse 1 well (at a depth of approximately 16,780 feet)_​ 

so only 16 feet has been fraced and in earlier reports after wireline logging they said:


_Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section and other potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox. A decision as to which zones will be tested will be made once log analysis is complete. _
 

I tend to think they have about 50 feet of zones in the lower wilcox still to frac if they want to, and maybe 20 feet or so more in the uppper wilcox (or was it 70 feet in the upper on its own or 70 for both??)

from a practical perspective if the fluids dont come back immediately and ytou dont get the flow, then its time to start looking hard at the data and try and understand it, and they say it ainrt over yet, its not the case that the entire well is being plugged and abandonded just yet, its early days..


if there was no hope on this well the announcement would have said so, although its bleak it aint over in my view. lets see what the jvp's decide over the next few weeks..


----------



## megla

mick z said:


> i don't understand your logic




Mick, that would be because I'm not using logic. I'm using gut instinct (and yes part of a trading plan).

How many times do we see a stock jump up for no *logical* reason? Every day eh! So logic for me is not with this stock, I'm going my the voices in my head.

And if it does go south, then the equity I have built up will stay there until it pops it's head back up. I refuse to sell any stock below what I paid for it period! That's part of of my trading plan. However I will not go running off crying, because this is certainly not my only stock. 

I'm using my intuition so DYOR etc, but it wont match my gut


----------



## chance fate

here's a thought that some may not like...  if you're in adi for sugarloaf why not sell and get into eka...  yes it wont jump as much on success but you'll get almost twice as many shares..


----------



## nioka

chance fate said:


> here's a thought that some may not like...  if you're in adi for sugarloaf why not sell and get into eka...  yes it wont jump as much on success but you'll get almost twice as many shares..




AUT would be a better bet. But the change would have been better a little while ago. I've done OK back and forth.


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> here's a thought that some may not like... if you're in adi for sugarloaf why not sell and get into eka... yes it wont jump as much on success but you'll get almost twice as many shares..





r u trying to sell your eka shares now chance?

i am in for two wells, and turns out its more like one and a puff of gas..

I have no real research on NT, but was getting the feeling of good things to come by the bullish remarks alex let out on the wireline log release, and the pipeline connection.. got well and truely blindsided there..

that leaves the mother of all wells over.. and i wont drop a single share until they have got full value there.. when you see the figures the plays near by get and you hear couchy say the porosity is better in our area, then its hard to let any share go.. 

i imagine the adi camp need to consider announcing another project, or advance yemen perhaps??  or the alliance?? it would seem foolish to allow just one well to be the only focus, there will be life after Sl and ADI needs to soldier on..


----------



## chance fate

...nope not me.. but someone eagerly wants to offload 50000... chasing the price down...  still can't beleive it hit 30c today...  i missed that... woke up late i'm affraid...(not that late!  I live in perth)...


----------



## chance fate

... I haven't been following NT that much ... the mud loss during drilling is problematic...  but as you said before they're still in clean up mode.. so surprising the announcement re. sub commercial came out now and not after further clean up...  and adi is less risky than one-more-chance-eka ...


----------



## maverick11

i'm guessing it has an awful lot to do with the fault line running through the lower portion of the well.  where did the frac fluid go??  i think i know... :


----------



## Agentm

maverick11 said:


> i'm guessing it has an awful lot to do with the fault line running through the lower portion of the well. where did the frac fluid go?? i think i know... :





i think your probably close to the truth, they have no clue really, one minute it was overpressurised, next it wasnt.. i spoke to chris a bit today and i feel what your saying mav fits in with what he was trying to explain.. they are in a very tricky play, very thick and lots of movement from the fault, you have trouble knowing when your drilling exactly where you are in terms of the plays your targeting and the seismics etc,....  then you get spikes and potential blowouts, so you withdraw for the safety of the well,, you cant win them all, and this well may be looking ordinary right now, but it may come good??

its now a matter of the geologists doing their best guesses, and the economics of fracing further. and we will be told last..

Sl is not a fault type play, so i have no problem staying in on the secondaries.. in light of the eme announcements, i wouldnt miss it for anything!!

looking forward we have a lot more than 40 bcf at SL and its possible in a month no one will remember NT..  there are some big announcements to come i feel, a new well in block A, and some very interesting weeks of testing..  anyone figured out yet why they will be testing Sl for months??
i best leave that one alone for the time being


----------



## chance fate

months agentm??  where'd you get that info??  from my own experience I've been involved in gas well testing in admittedly some fairly good sized and good quality fields in Holland... testing (flaring followed by build up) there didn't take more than 48 hrs: 24 hours to see the pressure response from the boundaries of the field i.e. a shift from transient decline to steady state decline...   the program would be longer for perforations, stimulation, fraccing and so forth....


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> i think your probably close to the truth, they have no clue really, one minute it was overpressurised, next it wasnt.. i spoke to chris a bit today and i feel what your saying mav fits in with what he was trying to explain.. they are in a very tricky play, very thick and lots of movement from the fault, you have trouble knowing when your drilling exactly where you are in terms of the plays your targeting and the seismics etc,....  then you get spikes and potential blowouts, so you withdraw for the safety of the well,, you cant win them all, and this well may be looking ordinary right now, but it may come good??
> 
> its now a matter of the geologists doing their best guesses, and the economics of fracing further. and we will be told last..
> 
> Sl is not a fault type play, so i have no problem staying in on the secondaries.. in light of the eme announcements, i wouldnt miss it for anything!!
> 
> looking forward we have a lot more than 40 bcf at SL and its possible in a month no one will remember NT..  there are some big announcements to come i feel, a new well in block A, and some very interesting weeks of testing..  anyone figured out yet why they will be testing Sl for months??
> i best leave that one alone for the time being




agentm,
Your last sentence is intriging. At the EME AGM last month, Frank Brophy mentioned max 2 weeks for testing. Regards.


----------



## Agentm

hey fflintoff, i agree, Sl is intriguing and has lots of history that many have no concept of.. 

I was thinking about the last report from ADI on what they were doing at SL:

During the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well Adelphi Energy Limited reported a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in Cretaceous age carbonates which were the secondary target in the well. 
Since that report, further detailed analysis of the logs has been undertaken by the Project Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc who advises that this possible pay interval is comprised of three zones of porosity which are expected to be tested separately. Flow testing of the possible pay zones in the Sugarloaf well is intended to be undertaken as soon as practicable. 
The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to take approximately two to three months. 
As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture’s land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI"), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths (including the abovementioned carbonate zone) to approximately 19,500 acres to date. 
Operations currently in progress at the well-site include the plugging off of the deeper section of the well and recovery of approximately 15,000 feet of 5 inch tubing (which will be available for re-use in the well if needed), as initial steps required in plugging back and testing the shallower zones. 

The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to take approximately two to three months.

now they have 3 zones, they will frac, and it will take 2-3 months???

thinking laterally, if they require permits, then what are they doing ? 

if they need to secure services, and if they are talking rigs, then they have a workover rig there already which is pulling up 15,000 feet of 5 inch tubing. so if its a rig, why do they need another rig? 

it takes 2 -3 months to do some major works on a well, it doesnt take 2 -3 months to frac... please correct me if i am wrong..

i guess i have to ask.. in the belief i know the answer....

what takes 2-3 months, needs services, and permits?  


As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture’s land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI"), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths (including the abovementioned carbonate zone) to approximately 19,500 acres to date. 

thinking this one through, i believe they had more rights to the deeps, the primary, than the secondary, now they have gone after all depths on the entire lease to secure the acerage for the 3 pay zones in the secondaries.

AMI has 80 square kilometers, sugarloaf it is stuck more or less smack in the middle of it all.

then there is the block A area to the west, with one well on it producing from the pay zones, and another well about to spud on that block, the acerage is undeclared. one jvp partner EME has broken rank and done deals there to get some quick cash in the near term.


then a JVP partner, AUT has broken rank and gone with TCE into ipamema and Longhorn, these two acerages are substantial, and Ipamema lease is to the south and longhorn to the east of sugarloaf. AUT has a lot of confidence on the play, and obviously feels it extends further, and has acted on, and secured a position there that it feels very comforatable with. I am not privy to the data on theose fields, i cant determine if the acerage is better or not, I have had conversations with one director (non adi) whom was of the opinion that the acerage may not have been as prospective as Block A and B, but prospective enough none the less, who knows, only time will tell that, and its interesting that there are no wells announced on the acerage, and no mention of any program to do anything with it. AUT says this about the acerage

_Aurora considers that the land packages secured to date represent an excellent strategic holding relative to our overall targeted areas._

further comments on the entire projetc from AUT are:

_The targeted areas of interest have been identified based on considerable analysis including 2D seismic and existing well data. TCEI has spent in excess of 12 years collating and analysing data to this end and from this work has been able to identify several new oil and gas field discoveries._

now couch oil says it was 15 years, and i think the plays there are possibly 3 or 4 plays, some active in all, lesser in others, and on the fringe they are lesser again..

I am not going to comment on what TCE has done over the past 15 years, but one thing i am extremely certain of, SL and Block A are substantial fields, they are the most prospective and being tackled first, i am also of the belief that Block A and B contain one play, the chalks, as EME made a blunder and revealed on the Block A. I am certain that 16 wells have been programmed for the two blocks (excluding ipanema and longhorn) and once Sl is tested the action begins on massive scale. we wont see one well taking one year to test, we will see infill and development wells all over the two blocks. 

I believe if TCE has spent 15 years on this, testing and driling, then still hung around, and a major oil company has joined rank with them, then its got to be exciting stuff. this is not a tiny NT well, this is serious acerage and a lot of planning.

right now, adi has a very cheap share in my view, and across all the JVP's the shares are exceptional value to what i believe the TCE discoveries will return.

Why am i in ADI?  I researched TCE, extensively, then concluded the man running the operation has credentials that are staggering... I look at what he has done, how he did it, and i respect his judgement and if he puts his own dollars into a project that has taken 15 years to develop, and has a major oil company on board, then its got my interest...

to be frank, of all the projects on ADI's porfolio, i rate SL as the best thing, and for AUT directors to take control of another company, EKA,  and then change its name and introduce the only thing it had (sugarloaf) to the shareholders and create a larger exposure to the field, then i decided then and there that SL was more than a wildcat and needed closer examination!! 

I see a lot of garbage posted on all sorts of forums around the globe on SL, and i also notice the ones who post meaningless trpie have never researched the SL play and have no idea who TCE are, and who runs it, and what he represents. most have no conception that 15 years ago, when they were possibly in the school yard, TCE made a discovery and planned to capitalise on it and develop is very quietly..

If NT had the same history as SL i would have a different slant on it, NT is not important to me in terms of the investing i have undertaken in ADI, a positive result would have been great, but SL is only on my agenda...

cheers..


----------



## chance fate

...  oh now i see what you mean...  by the same logic it's taken 12 years to drill the well...  the acreage issue was covered on this thread a while back...  now i think of it it's actually taken several hundred million years to drill the well


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> ... oh now i see what you mean... by the same logic it's taken 12 years to drill the well... the acreage issue was covered on this thread a while back... now i think of it it's actually taken several hundred million years to drill the well





which well??  there are many, you just need to know where to look.. you only know about 3.. maybe there are more???  everyone does their own research. 

if you think SL is the first well on this play then your years behind.. many years.. but not millions..

it takes more than a few million years for ancient sunshine to become a hydrocarbon, and i think TCE has been seriously on this for a good 7 years or more in terms of drilling.. you dont just ring up your mates at a major oil company and do a deal overnight, in terms of block A they have been seriously at it for a lot longer than that also..

the jvp's are very late in the peiece on this play very very late..


----------



## maverick11

hmm announcement dated 24th april says 2-3 months for testing.  There's no way fracing would take that long.  I am thinking they are planing on drilling a horizontal well that will subsequently (conveniently) be used as part of the flow testing of SL.  This way they also buy themselves more time until they get absolute definitive answers from the horizontal... In the meantime this will give them time to do something else...

I am also eager to hear what they decide to do for NT.  It seems maybe the porosity isn't what they had hoped for, but it may also be hole damage from the faulting.  These are of course my researched guesses, so dyor


----------



## chance fate

..apologies there agentM.. don't think my sense of humour came across very well in that last posting... i think i understand what you're saying - just to recap on Sugarloaf:


testing has been planned for 2-3 months but most of that has been waiting because of acreage acquisition
the play has been drilled many times before and therefore upgrades the chance of success in this well

so can we extend the positive inferences from both points? do we already have a commercial well?


----------



## maverick11

ok, i think there has been some confusion - myself included.  Re-reading the announcement 24/04 i think it is possibly indicating 2-3months until testing commences.  It is actually quite ambiguous and now i'm confused and i'm sure i'm not the only one.  Agentm, could you please clarify what you mean when you said testing will take 2-3 months to complete?


----------



## resourceboom

interesting post on AZZ on HC,
saying that no nearby wells to NT produce at this level but higher up.

so there may still be a chance for NT. If NT fails I think the price may hit 40c.

saw on the front page of ASF its your bday today Dukey (the starter of this adi thread), :birthday: mate!!


----------



## maverick11

they still have the wilcox meek and wilcox b targets to investigate.  Not sure if the other wells are the same targets, but you get the drift


----------



## Dukey

resourceboom said:


> interesting post on AZZ on HC,
> saying that no nearby wells to NT produce at this level but higher up.
> 
> so there may still be a chance for NT. If NT fails I think the price may hit 40c.
> 
> saw on the front page of ASF its your bday today Dukey (the starter of this adi thread), :birthday: mate!!




Thank you muchly Sir!!  

-I`m still here and still in on ADI. SLightliy dissappointed it`s taking so long, and the reporting from JVP`s is not very enlightlening (without all kinds of reading between the lines ect). - meanwhile other stocks are charging but...  not every stock can double the day after you buy in can it!!?? 
Have been very happy with my other pick (PES) recently. 
:bier: will drink the health of all ASFers tonight (esp. Joe - he who giveth!!) - has been a good year - and many thanks to all ADI posters who know a hell of a lot more about drilling operations than I do!! I`ve learnt alot about various investing styles from this thread and others.  Probably the best investment education you could find anywhere!!

Cheers me mateys.....


----------



## Agentm

maverick11 said:


> ok, i think there has been some confusion - myself included. Re-reading the announcement 24/04 i think it is possibly indicating 2-3months until testing commences. It is actually quite ambiguous and now i'm confused and i'm sure i'm not the only one. Agentm, could you please clarify what you mean when you said testing will take 2-3 months to complete?





After they pull up the pipe there is little they have to do there. It does not take 2-3 months to do any of the things they put forward in the report. i think they announced what they have to justify the excessive time delays at SL by spruiking technical issues that are not exactly nessesary for a frac to occur, they could have fraced months ago.. the issue is acerage.. and what has to happen at SL now they have a very prospective play in the chalks.. they clearly say that in the release..

_The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to take approximately two to three months. _

_As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture’s land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI"), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths (including the abovementioned carbonate zone) to approximately 19,500 acres (80 square kilometres) to date. _


i assume the engineering and reservior studies they refer to are 3d's.

the method utlimately used in chalks is fractue stimulation, correct.

technical assesment, test design, permitting and securing services??

they have a workover rig there already pulling up pipe, so what other services are needed, and what permit? 

why are the jvp's not hooking the well into the pipeline if they are using the frac testfrom this well, and its data, to determine the number of additional wells?

you can test the SL well as it is in the vertical, and equally you can use the well data from the wireline and forthcoming frac test, and compare it to the other producing wells, then with the aid of 3d's, then permit the well to go horizontal into the chalks and test it as you would if you were serious about producing from that zone, your asking a lot to be producing from the chalks in the vertical i believe..

how many wells produce successfully from the chalks in the vertical compared to the horizontal..

the next well in block A to go on this pay zone is horizontal..

i would not be hanging around in this share i was to believe that the SL well will produce commercially from the chalks in its present configuration.. not unless they convinced me how they intended to do it.. they must have some amazing frac technology.. 

i do not believe they have connected the well to the pipeline, i dont see any haste there, which surely you would expect if they were about to frac, and i dont see any activity such to suggest they are about to produce from Sl as is, as we saw at NT. this also indicates to me that they are not about to produce from the well.. i see SL, in its current state, as a test well, and where it ends up and what it ends up as to become a production well IMHO is not 4 weeks away, but I dont think the JVP's will announce anything without really educating and enlightening the market to what their last 6 months of research has told them..

remember the last statement on Sl:

_The proposed testing program for the shallower Cretaceous Carbonate section in the Sugarloaf 1 well as announced recently is now scheduled to commence in July._
_By way of clarification, a recent announcement by one of the Sugarloaf 1 participants (Empyrean Energy plc) in relation to its participation in further wells to be drilled in the Sugarloaf and other nearby areas will not affect the timing of the Sugarloaf 1 well test nor will it affect Adelphi’s interest in the leases acquired within the Sugarloaf Joint Ventures’ Area of Mutual Interest (AMI). These leases have recently been significantly increased to_
_approx. 19,500 acres within the “All Depth” portion of the Sugarloaf AMI._
_The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test._​ 
it seems evident that ADI are confirming the EME statement that multiple wells are going in at Sl, and i believe these will by and large be horizontal wells. there are 3 plays and maybe some can be vertically drilled.. It may be nessesary to frac the well to make the decision on how to drill horizontally, but i believe these guys are better than that and would have known from the time of the wirelines were done that what they were going to do at Sl on the chalks play, and that things will go ahead once the frac confirms the flow rates, which then ultimately will give them the key data on how to configure the horizontal wells....

i also believe they have, via the wirelines and other data aquired, made decisions on 16 well already, and that many will be on the SL lease.. 

ADI do not say that they are unsure if any further wells are going ahead until the testing is done, they are simply saying more are going ahead, and the testing will ultimately determine where and when..


lastly i add some interesting data to back up my claim that you drill horizonatal in the chalks: 

*Prime Targets *

Horizontal and extended-reach wells have been drilled to address various reservoir, economic and geological aspects of a play. 
Seven geologic and reservoir types have been prime horizontal targets and have yielded positive results, including:

The Bakken Shale in North Dakota.
Factured chalk like the Austin Chalk in Texas and Louisiana.
Stratigraphic traps such as the Niagara reef in Michigan.
Paleokarst reservoirs like the San Andres and Yates in Texas.
Thin beds such as those in the Red River of North Dakota and Montana.
Coal seam methane.
Heterogeneous sands.
In the United States, the Upper Cretaceous Austin Chalk has been the most successful play that has hinged on horizontal drilling. From 1985 through May 1999, 4,230 horizontal wells were completed in the Austin Chalk and collectively these wells had 6,887 completions. 
"The Austin Chalk trend has undergone three development cycles over the last 60 years," Stark observed, "but the play didn't emerge as an important resource until horizontal drilling was applied in the last development cycle. The benefit of horizontal drilling technology in the play is obvious." 


perhaps i am stating the obvious??


----------



## chance fate

OK...it's starting to get close to test time on SL and seeing EKA starting to fire-up (hopefully confirmation soon) here's a semi-serious price prediction for ADI and EKA in the lead-up to SL testing (apologies Yogi for stepping on your toes here) - for what it's worth EKA hit low 40c as shallow targets were being drilled and ADI hit low 60c ...  so taking a few cents off EKA for additional risk as further activity in Turkey seems a way off... and adding a few cents on to ADI for possible NT success (as of today - may have results by then) and other activities in the portfolio:

EKA = 35-40c 
ADI = 65-70c

The key thing now is when?  The thing that troubles me with this well is it may not be commercial as it's a vertical well - at best it could be produced but at a low flow rates.  The horizontal wells would be needed to achieve good inflow performance as the shallow zones are not very thick.   So a fully viable well may not be to be expected... but a good reserves estimate backed by a drilling program in the near term are what to look for....

Any thoughts?


----------



## Ken

Did anyone switch there funds from ADI to ARQ?  

Still get some exposure to ADI, but not all eggs in one basket, being texas...

ARQ seems a safer play to get exposure to sugar loaf due to diversification.


----------



## tomcat

Agree with you Ken, 

ARQ is definately a safer bet. I think they are looking the goods on other plays outside of their interest in ADI and SL. They are a producer and have an exciting portfolio in terms of exploration.

ADI has a higher risk / reward slant and it simply depends on your own levels of risk tolerance. I'm in ADI for the chalks in SL as I have a higher risk tolerance on this stock. If SL hits the sweet spot ADI's sp will soar whilst ARQ's will increase but not exponentially like ADI. 

ADI has higher risk due to the fact it has no producing wells hence no cashflow...so if SL is a dud it will die in the short term. I'm in it for SL, and I'm still not 100% certain NT is dead and buried.


----------



## fflintoff

chance fate said:


> OK...it's starting to get close to test time on SL and seeing EKA starting to fire-up (hopefully confirmation soon) here's a semi-serious price prediction for ADI and EKA in the lead-up to SL testing (apologies Yogi for stepping on your toes here) - for what it's worth EKA hit low 40c as shallow targets were being drilled and ADI hit low 60c ...  so taking a few cents off EKA for additional risk as further activity in Turkey seems a way off... and adding a few cents on to ADI for possible NT success (as of today - may have results by then) and other activities in the portfolio:
> 
> EKA = 35-40c
> ADI = 65-70c
> 
> The key thing now is when?  The thing that troubles me with this well is it may not be commercial as it's a vertical well - at best it could be produced but at a low flow rates.  The horizontal wells would be needed to achieve good inflow performance as the shallow zones are not very thick.   So a fully viable well may not be to be expected... but a good reserves estimate backed by a drilling program in the near term are what to look for....
> 
> Any thoughts?




Is that why they have been chasing so much acreage & why EME ´s new 16 wells at Blocks A/B will be horizontal? 
Couch mentioned 9 - 12% porosity in Sep for the chalks.


----------



## maverick11

chance fate said:


> The key thing now is when?  The thing that troubles me with this well is it may not be commercial as it's a vertical well - at best it could be produced but at a low flow rates.  The horizontal wells would be needed to achieve good inflow performance as the shallow zones are not very thick.   So a fully viable well may not be to be expected... but a good reserves estimate backed by a drilling program in the near term are what to look for....
> 
> Any thoughts?




The key is how they are going to choose to announce it.  Really, with all the research, 3d data, nearby producing wells, wirelines, frac testing results, gas logs, show reports, acreage, etc etc they should have enough data to "spill the beans" on what they have found and hopefully use the "d" word.  Afterall, the only reason they are holding back now is acreage.  Then they could advance forwards with the horizontal well for commercialisation.  One of many wells...

They could however delay the inevitable by using the horizontal well as part of the "testing program" and buy themselves more time... but I feel they won't be able to do this and give the sp another spanking.  Hopefully next month everything will be revealed  

But I tell you, although I have great confidence in SL; if they delay it further I really will be extremely pis*ed.. so i can understand why the sp has taken a beating over the last few months with all that has happened.

Have a great weekend people!


----------



## resourceboom

fflintoff said:


> Is that why they have been chasing so much acreage & why EME ´s new 16 wells at Blocks A/B will be horizontal?
> Couch mentioned 9 - 12% porosity in Sep for the chalks.




Yeah, but they have since reported high porosity too in the Hosston.
How many other wells will be drilled? What about permiability? What about flow rates?  So many unknowns at the moment.  Getting a bit nervous !!


----------



## maverick11

anyone know anything on EKA??  EKA up over 18%!!!  It's been jumping up the last few days.............


----------



## Agentm

mav..

i dont know whats happening there, but the sp indicates some very impressive gains for the holders..

There is no news from NT.. i would have thought an update is in order..

there is so much happening behind the scene at Sl that it makes your head spin, yet if you look at the jvp's you dont get any clues..

There is some very impressive people involved on the play, and i am staying around, i am a little concerned the jvp's are prepared to let their sp go south with no news, yet blatently there is activity all around the place..

i think its high time the jvp's commenced their coming clean on whats happening, and we got the show on the road.. 

i am curious as to why the cats are away right now??


----------



## chance fate

...just a thought... and most probably pure cr8p ... but EKA would fit well with ADI if there was enough confidence on SL.... or one of the other JV's for that matter... depends on the price i guess...


----------



## Agentm

maybe the major oil company will buy out all jvp's?

its likely to be a world class play, infact if SL secondaries are what they believe they are, then its blue sky for the sp and who knows where the future goes..

I see so much activity around the Block A and Block B area that it cant be a coincidence, there is some serious dollars being thrown at the area, real serious, and I see some excellent competition on the horizon.. although i dont like their chances..

I cant see any of the major shareholders flinching in the slightest, there has been no mass exodus, and with NT looking worse by the day, we are still seeing tightly held shares.. a great indication on the confidence shown across all the jvp's on the SL play..

there is brilliant acerage snapped up and we are in the box seat for a sensational ride once they test SL in the coming weeks..


----------



## Agentm

speaking in code here.. 

if i was to say i wsa PERMITTED to say WELL 7 times

then

if i was to say WELL 3 times and PRODUCE one WELL for good measure

then

if i was to say that outside of the JVP its looking like they have PERMITTED to say WELL 3 time at least 

then may you well say.. hold on to those shares big time!!!


agentmreportingincode...


----------



## camaybay

AUT (Aurora)  and ADI (Adelphi) each have a 20% share in SL. AUT is 0.52 and ADI is 0.57. :drinkDrinking silver) Similar cash  amounts $8+m & $7+m Shares AUT129m ADI 70m.  AUT has not been on the board since 22 March/ Noika. Is there an update somehere? 
Just doing MOR
Cheers


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> speaking in code here..
> 
> if i was to say i wsa PERMITTED to say WELL 7 times
> 
> then
> 
> if i was to say WELL 3 times and PRODUCE one WELL for good measure
> 
> then
> 
> if i was to say that outside of the JVP its looking like they have PERMITTED to say WELL 3 time at least
> 
> then may you well say.. hold on to those shares big time!!!
> 
> 
> agentmreportingincode...




agentm,
Does this mean that others are movin ´in on the adjacent acreage in which case thc cat is out of the bag & hence the JVP can start treating its shareholders like shareholders & divulge the full story ?


----------



## Dums

AgentM - by definition your code is tricky, it's my sense that you are saying the producer will be announced very soon, and by association the oil major, together with at least 10 specific well targets and spud dates - some parallel drilling, not all serial/long lead-time ... some block A, some B, and some activity on the borders .. possibly even some kind of plant/infrastructure

Am I warm old boy - or just befuddled by the excitement of potentially breaking even (EME holder) sometime in the next 12-18 months !!!
Dums


----------



## Agentm

Dums said:


> AgentM - by definition your code is tricky, it's my sense that you are saying the producer will be announced very soon, and by association the oil major, together with at least 10 specific well targets and spud dates - some parallel drilling, not all serial/long lead-time ... some block A, some B, and some activity on the borders .. possibly even some kind of plant/infrastructure
> 
> Am I warm old boy - or just befuddled by the excitement of potentially breaking even (EME holder) sometime in the next 12-18 months !!!
> Dums





I think the EME well, which is in Block A has possibly spudded already, thats not fact, just my feeling from various places..  so if the major oil co (remaining nameless as requested by various directors and at the request of the major oil co) and TCE have plans there, the second well, drilled horizontal, on that part of the play, would mean to me the major oil co is deadly serious, they would have enough data from the first well and extensive world class seismics, 3d's and the best research money can buy, and with that luxury we see the block a region being seriously looked at and planned. EME is in a great position there, i would be happy today if i owned eme shares..

i think of block A as a well planned and extremely viable prospect, and i also believe the activity south of our lease, with multiple wells there being planned by another major oil company speaks the truth of how prospective block B is also..

i think SL is also part of this world class play, and i am of the belief that once the testing is completed, there will be many wells as adi has announced already.  i expect once the discovery is announced we will see bluesky on the sp.. thats what i have invested for and remain in the share for..

today i expect further updates from ADI and hopefully Sl may get a mention..

snorkler announced this re NT on HC today.. worth a serious consideration, he is very very qualified and very well connected in this industry,,

_I spoke to Chuck the fraccer from texas, showed him the announcement and he did a some research for me. I will try to convey his thoughts.

First of all he described New Taiton as a discovered field with several wells in it. The Ilse-1 is just in a certain section of it - like a step-out. So its not quite a pure exploration well and hence the risk was reduced as described by the JV.

It is common to use heavy frac fluids in the field - with nitrogen - not sure how this works but the nitrogen will lower the hydrostatic. If something did not quite go as planned e.g. the N2 was lost to the formation then at the end of the frac operation the formation gas did not have sufficient energy to displace the fluid and hence the well is killed.

Not necessarily the end of the well but they will probably need to use some jetting or swabbing now to displace the kill weight fluid in the tubing to get things flowing.

All just pure speculation on limited technical data. This analysis really just confirms the announcement - that it is to early to comment on the commercial nature of the well.

Hope things go in our favour._ 


I also believe behind the scene ADI is busy planning the future for itself, both in terms of SL and other ventures, i think the next months ahead will see some major changes to ADI profile on the O&G explorers stage..

lets hope for good days from now on..


----------



## Fool

There is a new ADI announcement out.

All it says is there has only been sub-commercial gas flows so far.


----------



## blues

Had a quick chat with the company this morning and there could be some slippage to the mid July testing date for Sugarloaf. They are awaiting confirmation of this.

Cheers.


----------



## blues

They are still targeting mid July but at this stage they suspect some slippage and are just waiting on confirmation of this.


----------



## maverick11

i suspect this may have something to do with them needing to re-cement some of the casing.  But why the hell aren't they doing that now if the rig is onsite??  So f*cking pis*ed


----------



## blues

Delayed..wouldnt commit to length of delay but impression I got was that it wouldnt be too long but the market you would think wont like it.

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

i dont see the problem blues, its an issue that can easily be dealt with, there is no danger to the well, its a structural issue that is easily fixed, and a short delay is nothing to worry about..

the SP is really biting hard, and i dont enjoy seeing it like this, but its inevidable, if the jvp's run the show in this fashion then thats the way it goes,  i notice aut and eka have no problem in their SP, so the SL well coming up is definately attracting speculation there, and i think the smart money is arriving on ADI in this time where the news is negative.

I dont write off Sl, there is no P&A happening there from what i can see, just debate on fracing up the well.

I find it hard to believe they will P&A the well with a play unexplored, so my opinon is that a further test is likely, but i dont know either way!!

i still see block A getting all the attention right now, and i assume thats the focus, i cant wait for news to flow from that secretive arena.. Sl looks to be the second cab off the rank, with long delays and procrastinating..

interesting days right now..


----------



## blues

I dont see it as a problem for myself as I have held for over a year now so I am well use to waiting. I am becoming frustrated at the delays and the lack of info being given to shareholders. SL has always been the main play for me but I believe if the company announces further delays the share price will head further south as shareholders tire of delays and lack of info.

NT hasnt helped with the perception being given by laying pipeline etc that it would be a producer. It still maybe but there are further delays there as well.

From all my research I am still confident in SL being a winner in the long term.

Cheers


----------



## chance fate

EKA more forthcoming than ADI...


SUGARLOAF 1 WELL PROJECT UPDATE
Since our last report on the 24 April 2007, about 15,000 feet of the high
pressure liner used to test the deep target, in the Sugarloaf-1 well has been
successfully recovered and the well has been plugged back above 14,000
feet.
Cased hole wire line logging of the possible gas pay zones discovered
during drilling in Cretaceous carbonates, indicates that the cement behind
the casing is of poor quality and does not provide enough seal to isolate the
gas zones for testing. Remedial cementation, involving serial perforation of
the casing and squeeze cementing, has commenced and is expected to take
up to three weeks to complete.
Fracture stimulation and flow testing of each of the three zones of possible
gas pay will then be undertaken.
Eureka has a 12.5% working interest in the Sugarloaf-1 well through its
wholly-owned US subsidiary Hosston Oil & Gas LP.
Further details of the Sugarloaf Prospect and associated farm-in terms are
summarised on our website at www.eurekaenergy.com.au which also
includes a brief review of the US gas market and fiscal terms.


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> I dont see it as a problem for myself as I have held for over a year now so I am well use to waiting. I am becoming frustrated at the delays and the lack of info being given to shareholders. SL has always been the main play for me but I believe if the company announces further delays the share price will head further south as shareholders tire of delays and lack of info.
> 
> NT hasnt helped with the perception being given by laying pipeline etc that it would be a producer. It still maybe but there are further delays there as well.
> 
> From all my research I am still confident in SL being a winner in the long term.
> 
> Cheers




i spoke for a long time with chris at adi regarding all that sentiment that is being expressed regarding adi and the delays.

If adi were the operator in the venture then they could be criticised a lot, but they have no control over the operators in the states..

in the states, the operator is "king" and the jvp's have no say in the program to any great degree. ADI has the utmost respect for TCE and its approach to the Sl well.. as frustrating as it is for the delays, you need to see the bigger picture.. they share your frustration but cannot change the program..

Horizontal drilling in the chalks is the focus of the project, in my view the difference between the known 150bcf using vertical, and the uncharted tcf potential thats under the acreage is entirely reliant on one factor, successful horizontal drilling.. 

today it would be totally irresponsible for the jvp's to plow into all the targets helter skelter and hope for the best. TCE has carefully drilled in block A, we know a production well is there on a vertical well, and vertical production on the chalks is not always the easiest thing to do, and if you read the research i did on horiizontal wells, you will see that the austin chalks are prodominantly horizontal.. 2 comments here qucickly,, 1 if no sands target, would Sl have been horizontal??, and 2/ the fact they got so excited on the wirelines indicates there is every chance sl may be productive on the vertical..

plenty are openly criticing the ADI share, but none are commenting on the way they are not being irresponsible and drilling all over the shop, they are conservative and calulating, and cautious, as there is no guarantee of success, only very very promising signs success can be achieved,, and many comapnies are following suit in the immediate area..

so what is TCE dong??? exactly as ADI announced, they are testing block A with a horizontal well, and with that critical data from the well they can compare the first vertical well with Sl and also make some good calls on how successful horizontal wells will be in the 20,000 acre leases the jvp's have.. very good and very clever planning, great alliances with amazing resources, and adi and the JVP's in the box seat on their success.. things couldnt be better for the jvp's i think.. 

the delays are really nessesary, regardless of when Sl is tested, nothing will happen in my view on developing a field until they are certain the chalks can be productive and economical through horizontal drilling.. thats what i read into adis last announcement.. 

there are many companies following suit across the county, and a lot of permits are horixzontal as well, i have been alerted to and looking at some interesting presentations from the operator of the pawnee field and they have some exciting expectations for the wells that my research is matched up to..

So in essence, the real issue will be success, not so much as to whether Sl is commercial or not, its got that in the bag i think. 150bcf on the vertical is what they have announced so far... but the focal point of the operator is the big picture, when i research the chalks, and the operator all i see is the possibility of opening up a massive discovery using the best resources in the state, with the best operators, and sorting out and nailing the best way to move forward and make sure the things they think will work actually translates and works..economical horizontal wells.. nothing else really matters..

Delays due to poor management i can accept,, but in the jvp's situation, they cannot ask TCE to hurry up, if you are in the share its difficult to accept, i feel it as much as any other, and as other share move and your money is not gaining much, and its dead easy to be a sideline critic and use hindsight to insult people, but ultimately its up to you to choose how to invest, your to decide whether this project has any credibilty or not..

the block A well is the key in my opinion, once they know if it works, and even if it doesnt, and they learn a better way from it,, its all very important..and better for the jvp's to have it happen on their block not ours with our money, (so see some positive in it, its like a free ticket) would you rather see 16 horizontal wells go in and not be certain it will work, or do a handful first, evaluate, then develop the entire field?

there is great buying opportunities around currently imho, and for those who are not happy and waiting to get out, there seems an abundance of money coming in for their shares..

NT may or may not be a success, and its not just my opinion that the sp is way under the price that nt carried to the sp.. but what ever your perspective is, understand that the vertical drilling of the chalks is not the agenda in texas, and you have to have the right geology and good crews to be a success on the chalks with horizontal drilling.. high risk will always equal high reward!!! remeber Sl was always a test well, and maybe it will very likely be commecial too!! what a bonus, but these guys are not thinking 150bcf in my opinion, i think they know they have 150bcf or more, and potentially many tcf using horizontal wells.. my view is that adi share is worth the 150 bcf and is good value,, others say i am blowing hot air and know =nothing.. for me its easy.. as i have said vertical it will be 150 bcf,, but horizontal its a whole new ball game..

some get it, others either cant or wont ever..

i am in this share for horizontal success.. and not for 150 bcf which i feel is already in the bag and very very likely based on the vertical well in block a already producing,, no one is factoring in drilling success on the play yet into any of the jvp's sp, and i feel all jvp's are exteremely undervalued based on the successfulvertical well on production in the same play..... you cant deny that the wells will open up massive tcf reserves, and we are weeks away from knowing how well the brilliant operator is going with the major oil company..

i am keeping my fingers crossed for what i dream will happen,, there is no certanty at Sl and no certanty in block A, just a damn good shot at opening up a major play.. with 150bcf looking pretty good as a backup..

all imho and dyor

cheers,, and good luck... 

good luck to all holders..


----------



## Broadside

I think that is a good summation agentm.....how long do you think till we see some results from the Block A well?  I am sure some are following the EME threads, what does safiande etc think on this, they seem pretty astute?  I haven't looked there for a while, too much junk amidst the gems. 

No advice intended. :


----------



## Agentm

Broadside said:


> I think that is a good summation agentm.....how long do you think till we see some results from the Block A well? I am sure some are following the EME threads, what does safiande etc think on this, they seem pretty astute? I haven't looked there for a while, too much junk amidst the gems.
> 
> No advice intended. :





as flintoff will testify to,, the advfn boards are tough, they have apparently got paid derampers, whom short eme and also put negative sentiment on the boards, but these guys have never spoken to management and never understood the agenda.. you get some like that here, occassion snipes, with no back up of info to substantiate anything..
saf is great as are many there,, they all know their stuff and some are way more qualified in the O&G game than anyone knows..


I think a lot is happening at block A, and eme will announce things when they can..  ADi is being honest in upgrading its estimates on Sl,, they must have done 3d's in my view, and you wouldnt go blind on a 2d and drill horizontal..  so reading between the lines, the sp is really way under the 150bcf value... and you cant expect the tcf value in the share until there is success on the horizontal, and thats outcome is not far away now...

tcf cannot happen on the vertical,, no one can dispute that..  so the guys cant say they have a massive new discovery, its irresponsible and against the asx rules,, but they are certainly doing everything to make it a possibilty..  the jvp's are smart, they are keeping under the radar as best they can, and snapping up deal whereever they can..

three weeks time there must be news from both block a and SL.. then as adi said,, they can then plan for the future..

we have to wait for TCE and the major oil comapny to do their thing for us.. free carry on R&D!!  got to be smiling about that..


----------



## sandlion

I have an interest in ADI and all it is doing, but that is nothing compared to the interest I have now in being a 'paid deramper'!!!! How do I get that job??? I could it while at work!!!

Semper Fi ADI!!!!!


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> as flintoff will testify to,, the advfn boards are tough, they have apparently got paid derampers, whom short eme and also put negative sentiment on the boards, but these guys have never spoken to management and never understood the agenda.. you get some like that here, occassion snipes, with no back up of info to substantiate anything..
> saf is great as are many there,, they all know their stuff and some are way more qualified in the O&G game than anyone knows..
> 
> 
> I think a lot is happening at block A, and eme will announce things when they can..  ADi is being honest in upgrading its estimates on Sl,, they must have done 3d's in my view, and you wouldnt go blind on a 2d and drill horizontal..  so reading between the lines, the sp is really way under the 150bcf value... and you cant expect the tcf value in the share until there is success on the horizontal, and thats outcome is not far away now...
> 
> tcf cannot happen on the vertical,, no one can dispute that..  so the guys cant say they have a massive new discovery, its irresponsible and against the asx rules,, but they are certainly doing everything to make it a possibilty..  the jvp's are smart, they are keeping under the radar as best they can, and snapping up deal whereever they can..
> 
> three weeks time there must be news from both block a and SL.. then as adi said,, they can then plan for the future..
> 
> we have to wait for TCE and the major oil comapny to do their thing for us.. free carry on R&D!!  got to be smiling about that..






Block a spudded - eme ann
Empyrean Energy PLC
21 June 2007




                              Empyrean Energy PLC

                  ('Empyrean' or the 'Company'; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
                          ----------------------------

• First well in the new 16 well deal with Texas Crude Energy Inc ('TCEI')
  has spudded

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A
#1 well, the first well to be drilled as part of the recently announced 16
well deal has spudded on Block A.

Further updates will be provided as relevant information comes to hand.


The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


For further information:

Charlie Geller/ Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6605/ +44 (0) 7979955923

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746

Rod Venables/ Cecil Jordaan
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600



                      This information is provided by RNS
            The company news service from the London Stock Exchange


----------



## camaybay

Some info on Aurora site. They have the drinking silver to-day. :drink: Their progress report is positive and informative. Not holding either.
Cheers
DYOR


----------



## Lucky_Country

SP holding up pretty well all things being considered ADI should be on the boil in the latter half of this year with all things planned may even get a result from SL !


----------



## Agentm

so there we go..

2 wells drilled, 

and one well on production..   

in three weeks the tests, then the news on how many wells and where and when..

great news..


----------



## The Snorkler

Yeah I was wrong call again - trying to remain positive about NT.

I think the moral of the story is you really cant read anything into the "operations update" announcements. There is no hidden technical data there. If an experienced stimulation engineer who actually knows the area could only guess then what chance do we have?

I will add also that I showed him the announcement about the pressure kicks they took while drilling the well to the announcement yesterday and he thinks they make absolutely no sense - from a practical standpoint.

Im just bull****ting now and this has no relation to ADI but since its Texas I thought id share. There is another English guy at work who has some experience in Texas. He described some parts as Deliverance country and a snakepit for foreign oil companies. He had an experience where their American partner simply physically shut the well in so that the JV would lose their production licence and they could do a swifty and take control of the well somehow. The English guys company had a lawyer fighting for them who slept with a gun under his pillow! This was back in the 80s mind you. Im sure things have really changed. Really!!


----------



## Agentm

The Snorkler said:


> Yeah I was wrong call again - trying to remain positive about NT.
> 
> I think the moral of the story is you really cant read anything into the "operations update" announcements. There is no hidden technical data there. If an experienced stimulation engineer who actually knows the area could only guess then what chance do we have?
> 
> I will add also that I showed him the announcement about the pressure kicks they took while drilling the well to the announcement yesterday and he thinks they make absolutely no sense - from a practical standpoint.
> 
> Im just bull****ting now and this has no relation to ADI but since its Texas I thought id share. There is another English guy at work who has some experience in Texas. He described some parts as Deliverance country and a snakepit for foreign oil companies. He had an experience where their American partner simply physically shut the well in so that the JV would lose their production licence and they could do a swifty and take control of the well somehow. The English guys company had a lawyer fighting for them who slept with a gun under his pillow! This was back in the 80s mind you. Im sure things have really changed. Really!!





NT is obviously a big debate right now.. but i feel the decisions being made by the operator are beyond ADI's influence..

now i am absolutely perplexed by the EME announcement, it makes no sense.

TCEI JV Block A #1 well????? what sort of name is that? the well is definately not called that, so its obvious that EME is absolutely unable to report anything about it. AS for the content of the report, its absolutely contrary to all my research. I am not an EME holder, and as far as I am concerned, if that is the level of reporting that a public company can get away with, god help us!! we will never know anything.. how are the shareholders going to be able to check the production levels of their well their money is invested in when they are not even told the wells name??
I can honestly agree with all your saying snorkler, the texas guys are absolutely ruthless to their investors!! WOW i cant believe what is happening right now.. In the states it is required to disclose all production details of wells and well names, i would hazard a guess that hiding the well name from investors and trying to get away from it must be some sort of felony,, but obviously in the UK its perfectly Ok to do so.. intersting indeed..


----------



## tarzanhey

To be honest AgentM I am pretty annoyed about the lack of info on the RNS from EME.

Sure it great that they have spudded the new well and it will I am sure mean great things to EME, but this really is not good enough.

Try telling your wife so little info after you spent a lot of HER money on a secret trip with a secret Partner at a secret place and then see if you survive without telling her a lot more.


----------



## Agentm

the lack of info still tells a story..

it says the major oil company pulls the strings and is very keen for no info to get out!!  EME are unable to declar the name of the well, and any details of where they are at, nor that its a horizontal well..

Teh jvp's share prices are at a stael right now.. a vertical well just like SL only a short distance away ref july 2006 EKA report:

A recent gas-condensate discovery by competitors has
been made in one of these shallower limestones within a few kilometers of​the Sugarloaf well location
 

So the competitor well in block A is only a few kilometers away, 9they say) and producing in the secondaries on the vertical and soon on the horizontal, i tend to think that the news about is great, we know the competitor is a major oil company (name withheld at the requet of ADI) and we know the  couch oil report on our well was very very promising indeed..

My research tells me theres a lot going on, under deep secrecy and for the purpose of determining a 16 well program involving horizontal and vertical wells all over the two blocks..

If you were TCE, would you test develop the wells you could keep under wraps the longest with a major oil company under deep secrecy and test away, or do it with a jvp of companies whom all have requirements with authorities like the asx to report much detail, and thereby giving all your competitors access to very critical data??

Things are happening at SL in block A and B, just as you would expect a smart operator like TCE and a major oil company to behave..

plenty of things going on in texas for sure..

as i have said before, if you understand the chalks, understand how critical the success of horizontal drilling is to that type of play, understand how good a sign it is to be producing on the vertical in that play in any case, then i am certain your an adi or a jvp investor already, 

interesting days ahead..


----------



## The Snorkler

Agentm said:


> In the states it is required to disclose all production details of wells and well names, i would hazard a guess that hiding the well name from investors and trying to get away from it must be some sort of felony,, but obviously in the UK its perfectly Ok to do so.. intersting indeed..




Agentm,

Each well should have an API number and we couldnt find one for New Taiton or Ilse-1.

Regards,
Snorkler


----------



## sandlion

Once they are permit allocated and producing, then they get an API designation...wehy does everyone look for conspiracies where they dont exist...sheesh...some wells are given field sequential numbers (e.g Sugar Loaf #1...SL #2 etc) as well as being given PID designations, API numbers, flowline numbers etc etc Its not a big mystery, and as far as UK regulations go...they are far more onerous and professionally allocated than anything conjured up by ASX...FTSE100 and the Dow Jones are the 2 main financial markets in the world...the ASX trickles in somewhere maybe in 7th place or something?

Hang on, I thin I just saw a rig pig somewhere over there...behind the grassy blowdown pit...


----------



## jballs

EME currently up 30% in London .....   interesting!! Not large turnover, however; just over 1 million shares traded.


----------



## Agentm

The Snorkler said:


> Agentm,
> 
> Each well should have an API number and we couldnt find one for New Taiton or Ilse-1.
> 
> Regards,
> Snorkler





i guess its because there are a lot of us that know the details of the wells, api numbers, production rates of the first well , etc etc,, i wont put any of that on the forums at the request of alex and chris, they respect the EME requests for the major oil company to be withheld, so I also maintain that stance along with many others.

i as an investor want to know exactly where my money is and what its doing, whaever a public company cant or wont disclosed is easily discovered by internet research, phone calls to various authorities, and letters and emails.. its no real problem to get the big picture on something..

the TCEI JV Block A #1 well (lets not call it by its real name and real number) is a horizontally drilled well, and all mmy research leads me to believe the EME announcement was totally out of time with reality.

I am absolutely certain, from my research and three seperate sources, that the testing of both wells will be practically at the exact same time.. 

snorkler,  i researched the NT well just then (as i wrote this reply) it took me less than a minute to find the api number.. do you need it? its never been on my radar as i have not considered it as an important well.. I have mainly been interested in the SL secondaries since ADI announced its intentions there a few years back.. well name and opertor is all correct.. as stated by all jvp's, and no fake names there..

i find it amazing the jvp's use the real name for one well, and fake names for the block A wells!!  and more amazing that the block A well is in some sort of time warp in the UK..

sandlion.. i had no idea about the things you posted.. i will keep that in mind, i had no idea the UK reporting had such high level requirement,, i had been told by various directors the EME exchange had some of the worst reporting requirements, and was far inferior to the ASX requirements,, i stand corrected. 

I was always given the impression a publically listed company had an obligation to its investors to report factual and accurate information,, and didnt realise that disguising wells was common practice..

i have learned this week that reporting in the Uk doesnt require any real depth of detail, and the term spudding can cover a broad range of drilling processes up to TD.. i didnt know that until now.. when SL was being drilled i remember speaking to adi about how they had to use the correct terms for all stages of drilling.. i had no idea spudding could mean the the stage the block A well is at..

NT is being reported by the jvps' far more, and in greater detail than the NT USA listed partner.. they have not reported very much at all.. 

also The major oil company has not listed any announcement at all on any of the wells it has drilled in block A, infact i have yet to find any reference to anything about the block or wells on the website, any presentation, press release, or official release, they have not even mentioned they are  in the county!!  so if their reporting rules are so much better then obviously the JVP's are  being brilliant and very generous in reporting anything about the Sl project or the block A wells.. 


i didnt realise the ASX ranked about 7th on reporting,, thats interesting too.. maybe ADI should quieten up a little then, we may be blessed that they are reporting a lot of details..


----------



## Agentm

snorkler

i decided to look closer at NT, i have to admit i have done absolutely no research on it at all,, so i figured a hour was worth it.

the lease was operated by Dewbre petroleum Corp

http://www.dewbre.com/aquisitions.html

*Wharton County*
Wharton County activities began with drilling shallow Miocene and Frio gas wells in 1988. Drilling depths subsequently increased to deeper targets and success in the Yegua and Wilcox formations. One of the success stories was in the New Taiton Field where Dewbre took over operations of 3 producing wells, shot a 3D survey over the property, drilled several new wells, increased production dramatically, then marketed and sold the properties for a significant profit for the working interest owners. A large 3D data base in the area is continuing to result in generating and drilling successful wells


i looked at many wells on production in the area, and it seems they have had various successes very near to ilse 1,, within 2.5 miles..

as a side note its interesting they are also in karnes county and have horizontal wells going in there as well. i note its sister company aroura is also active on the border of our leases at the same depth..

http://www.geopetra.com/business.html


anyway,, as all things texas,, you get the profile of the company and very little else..

my view on NT is still slightly optomistic,, no P&A notice out yet..

SL remains the main deal,, EME got a huge surge of interest in it from the blcok A well.. and 21% up on the day bucking the trend of a very negative day on the UK market.. i maintain the well is shrouded in secrecy and have maintained the wishes of ADI and EME and not announced its correct name and details of the production well on the lease there. But its no wildcat.. its horizontally targeting the production strata of the well that is producing and this whole show in block A is only miles away from SL on the same play.. 

Sl looks absolutely brilliant inlight of that in my view..

the days are drawing nearer now,, not long before results of block A and Sl will start to filter out..

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## The Snorkler

thanks Agentm. That is some good information


----------



## Agentm

no problems snorkler..

your post inspired me to actually research NT a little more.. and now i have i get a little more confidence on the 14,000 feet region, as all wells definately produce at that level.. i would hope a decision either way would come soon.


----------



## nioka

I have a problem with assessing the value relationship between ADI and AUT. I have traded between the two on a regular basis and have been able to increase my holdings and still cream off some profit. My last trade between the two enabled me to sell 2 ADI and buy 3 AUT. I looked at selling the AUT and reverting to ADI which would, at todays prices, give me a 33% increase on the original ADI shares. They both have equal shares in sugarloaf. AUT has a 22% share in Gawler, ADI has NT. They both have other interests but those mentioned are the main ones I am considering with immediate value.
 Would anyone like to comment on the comparison of values?


----------



## mick z

Agentm said:


> no problems snorkler..
> 
> your post inspired me to actually research NT a little more.. and now i have i get a little more confidence on the 14,000 feet region, as all wells definately produce at that level.. i would hope a decision either way would come soon.





janssen 1 is about to spud.. in karnes county, maybe one to keep an eye on.....................................................................


----------



## Sean K

mick z said:


> janssen 1 is about to spud.. in karnes county, maybe one to keep an eye on.....................................................................



Gents, please keep to the 100 character rule. Future posts being padded will be removed without notice and infractions awarded. The rule is there for a reason, and it is VERY easy to stick to with just a little bit of extra thought. All the best with ADI, kennas


----------



## Agentm

mick.. my post was moderated and reduced by kennas!!  i had a funny little line about the code snorkler put into the post.. anyways,, i will post here until they ban me.. kennas seems to think it was funny!!

I just looked west of block A and came across another well pioneeer had put in a few months ago,, it was vertical and went to the same depth as the production well in block A, and the present horizontal well being drilled in block A which EME has a small part in.

it was completed in DEC 06   and has "shut in" classification..

nice one!!!!

it seems you can go vertical in the chalks all around the shop and come in with a commercial well,, no wonder the majority of permits are now horizontal..

once this next well  is done, its will show the jvp's what type of flows they can expect from a horizontalo well,,and as ADI announced,, they will use the block A vertical and horizontal well data and SL vertical well data to plan the 16 well program..

theres permits all over the place now..   i can tell whom the major oil co and tce are trying to compete against, and why the secrecy.. but when you look at what the competitor has done, you can clearly see there not much that either party doent know about the play.. at least poineer mentions it on their recent presentations!!!

i am of the belief these horizontals are going to unlock some major gas and condensate for us..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Dukey

G'day all again - just to add something re the Austin Chalks  potential - in checking (googling) around myself I found an Oz company called burleson energy (BUR) who look very interesting in themselves - they are heavily into the Austin Chalks maybe a few countys away from SL.

Anyway - this report of theirs gives plenty to think about re the chalks, horizontal wells, dual zones, nice diagrams and maps. So I guess this kind of stuff is what could potentially happen at SL if the chalks hit paydirt - as it seems they have in many many other locations. Hope this sheds some light for those mushrooms like me!.

http://www.burlesonenergyltd.com/documents/316.pdf

(let me know if I've got the wrong link) 
BUR sound like a goer too. Need more cash!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Dums

Thanks for this Dukey - Interesting read - I especially liked the 1BCF = $8m ... It has been a good day for EME in England - up 21% today trading at 48/49 pence on 3.7m volume ... something definately afoot - hope its good news around the block A and B area ... they did release some news this morning but that was just delayed testing for one of the shallow wells in their Project Margarita (due to bad weather) ... EME were up about 28% on friday as well, so a fundamental re-rating of the share price is happening ...
Hope this rubs off onto the JV partners.
Fingers crossed for the Austin Chalks !!!!
Cheers Dums


----------



## Agentm

i have had BUR recommended by a few people now,, i looked at it last week due to the horizontal drilling similarities.. very interesting..

i will repost something i had posted elsewhere, i  am of the belief the jvp's at Sl are close to a major discovery..

There is some detail to grasp.. if you look at the announcements they are very vague as the JVP's were trying to say as little as possible to protect the interests of the major oil company.. we were never aware the Block A horizontal well was always supposed to coincide with the SL well, there were delays, 2 major ones, which were impossible for the JVP's to forecast.. TCEI as a operator at SL had delays as JVP in Block A. 

Block A is next to sugarloaf, i am not certain of acreage, but believe the acreage is lesser than block B.

Block A has a production well which is vertical, than on the same lease a horizontal well, which EME and TCEI have a share in. There are reasons for the delays on the horizontal well, which i believe also delayed the SL well. 

TCEI has operator status in block B, and they are as a JVP. looking at the results of the Block A horizontal well before setting out and mapping a 16 well program on both blocks.

So block B (sugarloaf) is in a holding pattern, awaiting the horizontal wells results from Block A. if its as good as its expected, then the sugarloaf results can give them a very good idea what horizontal wells can deliver in the sugarloaf leases.

The EME move to break ranks and jump on the block A wells has given the bigger picture to all. There is much riding on the block A results, the major oil company is not jumping on the bandwagon so to speak, as it looks at oil field development in a very practical and pragmatic way.. no guess work, just high quality research and technology, then test, then develop if practical..

My feeling is the Block A well results will be significant. Horizontal wells traditionally produce 3 -5 times a vertical wells output, and can reach reserves usually not reached by vertical wells due to the expense. i think the test results of SL were either as good or superior to the Block A production well, my feeling is that based on the wirelines they immediately decided and announced the testing of the secondary’s would be delayed. If the wirelines didnt show much they would have frac tested it then an there and done a P&A on it and wrapped it up in my view.. if Sl didnt compare to the production well in block A i see little reason for the delays..

Looking at it from TCEI viewpoint, why spend all that cash on Sugarloaf, when equivalent if not superior resources are being utilised in Block A, and can give you some real comparisons and great research results. TCEI isnt going to spend the same cash as an operator at sugarloaf and repeat the same again as a JVP on Block A, just to get the results twice that it only really needs once!! that would not be a good decision. TCEI is obviously very certain of what the sugarloaf well is capable of, has put it on hold, waiting for the delayed horizontal wells results, then will use the data there to plan the future on the SL leases. that is what ADI has announced in its last release on Sugarloaf, and my view remains that TCEI is playing a great game of limiting expensive cost overruns, using the major oil company and its research to understand how to unlock the chalks with horizontal wells, and being extremely clever and resourceful in its decisions right the way through.


I am happy to have a major oil company's research be the cornerstone of the decisions made on the future of the sugarloaf leases. 

If there wasnt such a great result in the wirelines, i am certain there wouldnt be hold on SL and a frenzy to get hold of leases as we see. my feelings are if SL is superior well to the block A vertical, then we are in for potential blue sky.. the way the current situation at SL is being played out indicates there is more riding on the TCEI JV Block A #1 well than the sugarloaf results themselves..

all imho and dyor


----------



## maverick11

Anyone following BUR?  They released not long ago info and a few numbers on their initial flow tests of the horizontal well into the austin chalks (1 of 25)....wowzers!!  I like their style, and production piping already in place.  Sounds like they have some smooth texas operators... i'd be lying if I said I wasn't jealous ha!


----------



## chops_a_must

chops_a_must said:


> Regardless of the Texas oil industry, they have to publicly release their plans for the Austin Chalks. They owe that to holders. Until they do, people should remain sceptical. I notice BUR are drilling in the chalks right now... yet, not a sound here about that...






Agentm said:


> as for BUR drilling into the austin chalks? so what, its not on the same play at all, SL in karnes county and miles away, the chalks are a major carrier of hydrocarbon plays rights accross the gulf.. just as the wilcox is a prolific producer. just because other companies drill in the austin or wilcox plays in texas is not enough reason to jump off this prospect in karnes county in my book
> 
> ...
> 
> as for smoke and mirrors, chops thats how its done in texas, if you declare what you have to your competitors then you may as well not be in the game, you can only afford to sign up a limited amount of leases on a play, and certianly you dont share your finds to anyone, a neighbouring leaseholder has potential to be part of your future, so you dont tell them everything before you approach them to sign them up. and in texas anyone can sign up anybody, if someone senses a major play, then the big boys arrive and try to cut into the play, tco can keep up with the majors, i have my reasons to believe that, so i am not concerned on that front.,
> 
> dyor on the way things are done in texas and get a good idea about it on this stock, i maintain its a key factor in why the sp is currently where it is and why the share is tightly held



What a difference a few weeks make.

Despite BUR being in Texas, they still give their holders respect and treat them as if they had dignity, regardless of whether they are in Texas or not. ADI need to learn a bit from BUR I suspect.

If it's good enough for BUR to give proper updates, it should be for ADI as well.


----------



## Sprinter79

Agentm said:


> i  am of the belief
> 
> but believe
> 
> which i believe
> 
> My feeling
> 
> i think
> 
> my feeling
> 
> in my view
> 
> i see
> 
> my view
> 
> i am certain
> 
> my feelings




Dude, is anything you say in this thread based on fact? Or is it all just your gut instinct? It's all well and good to have an opinion but its getting very repetitive.


----------



## Agentm

i agree with you chops, ADI as operator is extremely limited in what they are prepared to release, and if you have an issue on it, ring them and take it up.. EME with their well has even given out less info, their claim the block A well has spudded is as far fetched as you could possibly make it..


BUR has a lot of reasons to talk up their share, and i know a few who have invested there, it looks great and supports the theory on horizontal drilling in the chalks..

sprinter.. dude..!!

all IMHO and DYOR.


----------



## Sprinter79

What i said in my last post was all taken from ONE of your posts in this thread. Isn't there a saying somewhere that says not to invest in rumour? Again I ask, is what you say based on fact, or just your gut instinct?


----------



## Agentm

*Sugarloaf -1 Well – Adelphi 20% Interest 
*[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]As recently reported by other listed partners participating in this well, the commencement of the fracture stimulation and testing program of the Cretaceous carbonate zone in this well will follow remedial cementation of the well casing across this zone. This process which involves serial perforation of the casing and squeezing cement is expected to take several weeks to complete. 
The latest indication from the Operator is that fracture stimulation and flow testing of the first of the three zones of possible gas pay is now expected to commence during the first half of August. 
[/FONT]*Ilse-1 Well (New Taiton Prospect) – Adelphi 25% Interest​*[FONT=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]The Ilse-1 well remains shut-in pending a review of the forward program and a formal recommendation from the Operator. 
[/FONT]


----------



## surfingman

They don't like revealing info do they, not sure if its the management team or the operator of the fields but they sure do know how to sketch it out or maybe their paid by the hour???


----------



## nioka

chops_a_must said:


> What a difference a few weeks make.
> 
> Despite BUR being in Texas, they still give their holders respect and treat them as if they had dignity, regardless of whether they are in Texas or not. ADI need to learn a bit from BUR I suspect.
> 
> If it's good enough for BUR to give proper updates, it should be for ADI as well.




It is interesting to compare the BUR SP and the ADI SP over the past few weeks. Maybe ADI should copy the style of reporting by BUR.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> It is interesting to compare the BUR SP and the ADI SP over the past few weeks. Maybe ADI should copy the style of reporting by BUR.





i think all the jvp's would love to report everything they have on the Sl play, but somehow when you talk to the management you get told the operator is limiting things, and when your in the process of buying acerage you have to be limiting what you put out.

If the major oil company in block A actually announced they were in the state on their website, or on any official releases, then what do you think the ability for anyone to negotiate good deals on the leases would have been?

i am not certain of BUR position on acerage, i assume they have secured all the acerage they want and the operator is happy for news to flow, perhaps thats the difference between TCEI as operator for the Sl area, and BUR and their operator.. (btw i have not researched if BUR are actually securing acerage or have already secured acerage before drilling, perhaps someone can let me know if they wish)

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Loui66se

jackohelp - 28 Jun'07 - 21:08 - 42980 of 42980


agentm>
does speary(edwards) mean anything to you?


----------



## Sham

In regards to BUR the operator AKG is still securing acreage in Burleson County.
BUR report on whats happening with the drilling of their wells just like any other company. The reason the same information isn't released to ADI holders is simply because very little is happening.
To much reading between the lines on this thread and talking up what could be future possibilities. 
Some of you guys would make great used car salesman.

But hey good luck.


----------



## Agentm

Loui66se said:


> jackohelp - 28 Jun'07 - 21:08 - 42980 of 42980
> 
> 
> agentm>
> does speary(edwards) mean anything to you?





that field is going vertical and now horizontal at 13500 feet. i think its for the limestone edwards plays.. production was supposed to increase with the horizontal, but i dont know how good it was, some data i have seen ddint show brilliance..

they seem to me to be on the fringe of the action and they have been very active in the area there with pioneer. i think they are both trying to get more out of the play they have going there. and by the depth they are going it appears they are at a different level to where we are..


i cant discount the edwards limestone at SL.. but the jvp's have not indicated any interest in that zone.. the upper cretaceous is what EME have indicated at block A, and the edwards is said to be 12,275 - 14,000.. so theres reasons to be thinking that way i guess..

but remeber the depth they have blocked the well at.. thats important!!

i tend to think its more 11925 - 12200 austin chalks at SL.. as the primary target.. i believe thats what the objective is of the next perforating and frac test at SL..  theres been a claim by all the JVP's that this play is producing right now.. my research confirms that.. i just wish they would announce it!! 


if you want to talk specific wells then feel free to pm me..

cheers


----------



## Agentm

This was posted on the weekend on another site.

the wirelines have been around for some time, and all my research indicates they are 100% genuine. I have seen many different appraisals of them. the logs are only a portion of the logs available, buy they are the relevant ones.

much of the info has been on other forums, and i feel its important to understand them and look at some opinion on them, particularily if your a holder of the share.

A lot of what i have read i can understand and agree with, it matches up with a lot of the research i have done.


keep in mind the block A well is completed, with the researh i have done that i am certain, and there is no indicationthat the well is going to be a P&A, in fact quite to the contrary, all the things you see in the normal pattern of completing a well for producion seem to be happening on the site.. my opinion, and its totally mine on my research alone, is that the block A well is ready for frac and flow testing

DYOR 


the post has been divided into two parts due to the size of it.. i hope its ok to post it that way!!!

*mpls** - 1 Jul'07 - 17:23 - 43097 of 43102*



SL is the one to watch here.

Testing in block B is to start August and EME have trippled their interest to 18%.
The block A next door is operated by a major international oil and gas company and EME have 7.5% of that, this is reportedly going to be a horizontal well there a *Production well?*
The first well in block A flowed gas and associated condensate on test, the next drilling has started. Peak gas reading in the secondary (where the drilling in block A is going down to the same depth/formation) were 1000 but in the primary, Hosston, there were only 536. The secondary was better than the Hosston. It was known that one of the partners wanted just to test the secondary. 

Here are some of the Logs from the shallow depths.

This is a chart from 12300ft to about 12500ft.
You can see a peak gas of MAX 491u.
C2 in blue, C1 is in black which has peaks approaching 100,000 ppm.







Compared with this at 3200ft where the levels drop off to background and then climbs again, see the dip in the blue (C1) line.


----------



## Agentm

Part 2 due to size of post.........





Some analysis (my highlights in bold), some supporting research identified by Edgein:

*Edgein, circa Sep 2006*
Did you read the information that I posted on the C1-C4 ratios. 
You also notice that the gas ppm are at times over 2.8% V/V for C1 
alone and ranging in *gas units of between 500 to over 1000 from a *
*background reading of zero*, the standard through hundreds of feet is 
at least 62units with one particular section showing c1-c4 increasing 
considerably over background as reported in the information by Saf 
and also the RNS by EME and partners. *It is clear* that once they pass 
through the shale and siltsone section into *the upper reservoir* as 
reported in the logs as "show #1" there is a *significant set of peaks* 
corresponding with the section that would represent the upper reservoir. 
Siltstone and shale are common seal type lithology, Chalk is a common 
reservoir type especially for gas traps. It is my view that these peaks 
and the words "show #1" are an indication that a gas section has been entered. 
It is quite possible that you wouldn't see that as a good result, but then again I'm a holder and you most likely are not. Good gas shows doesn't 
automatically mean its going to be a commercial well, but its a good start. 
Some wells have significantly strong gas shows and are unable to sustain 
high flow rates due to reservoir characteristics. Some wells with lesser gas 
shows may have ideal reservoir characteristics and sustain flow very 
commercially over a long period. *As stated the gas ratios are within a "potentially" commercial range.*


----------



## Agentm

part 3

Some very useful information provided by Saf over the weekend again, 
there is one particular section of interest that has *C1-C4 shows and *
*the ratios are in the region of 30 (apparently good and within a potentially commercial range).*
There is a vast amount of info in the logs. I've never seen so much 
information revealed from a well while its in the process of drilling. 
The DTI site provides logs of UK wells after the well has been drilled, 
but not for some time afterwards, and not in such detail.

I'm kinda reading the logs in that the spikes are interesting sections 
and leaving anything that is below about 62u as backgound, although it 
seems to be essentially be a gas show. The report based on wirelining could 
be very interesting indeed, restivity logs coupled with the mud logs (gas shows and lithology). 
As saf has suggested there is suitable lithology throughout these shows 
(chalk, limestone and some sandstone early on, mainly chalk and limestone though).

Max readings so far seem to br just in *excess of 1000u.*

*The ratios of C1 vs C2 and C1 vs C3 are important* in determining the type and potential 
commerciality of the gas find it seems. Its not guaranteed as a flowing well until tested, 
some wells with gas units do not sustain long term flow. We have the initial signs of a 
potentially commercial well with the increases in C1-C4, gas unit spikes over a significant 
reservoir section of limestone and chalk and a high ppm especially in methane. 
There are certainly hydrocarbons present during drilling so far. We'll know more 
from the wirelining, and we'll not know the end result until fully tested. As everyone else, fingers are crossed for the end result.

*Gas Analysis from Mud Logging*
Pixler (1969) found that the gases observed during drilling could 
distinguish the type of production associated with the hydrocarbon show. 
Pixler's data (Fig. 8) were obtained by monitoring the C1 to C5 hydrocarbons 
collected by steam-still reflux gas sampling during routine mud logging. 
Individual ratios of the C2 to C5 light hydrocarbons with respect to methane 
provided discrete distributions that reflect the true natural variations of 
formation hydrocarbons from oil and gas deposits. Ratios below approximately 2, 
or above 200, indicated to Pixler that the deposits were noncommercial. 
The upper range for these ratios for dry-gas deposits has been enlarged by 
Verbanac et al (1982), who studied more than 250 wells from 10 oil and gas fields. 

Their data suggest the following upper limits for dry-gas reservoir ratios: 
C1/C2 < 350, C1/ C3 < 900, C1/C4 < 1,500, C1/C5 < 4,500. 
These gas-deposit ratios clearly overlap the biogenic range. 
Another empirical rule suggested by Pixler is that the slope of the lines 
defined by these ratios must increase to the right; if they do not, 
the reservoir will be water-wet and therefore nonproductive. 
Verbanac et al (1982) suggested that a negative slope connecting individual 
ratios may result from subsurface reservoir zones of limited permeability.

Our data for shallow soil gas are plotted on a Pixler-type diagram in Figure 9. 
Direct comparison of these two independent data sets is very striking and 
supports the concept of migration of reservoired hydrocarbons to the surface.

The use of chemical compositions and component ratios often reveals other 
types of deposits. Biogenic gases and gases from coal deposits typically 
have ratios of methane to ethane that exceed l03 or I04 
(Janezic, 1979; Coleman, 1976; Bernard, 1980). However, Oremland (1981) 
reported small quantities of biogenic C2 to C4 hydrocarbons from marine 
muds where the lowest C1/C2 ratio was 149:1. Although the heavier 
components may be present in very minute amounts in coal or biogenic gas, 
the ratio of these components with respect to methane is very small. 
Thus, petroleum type gases can generally be distinguished clearly from 
typical coal or biogenic deposits, even though the latter may contain 
low but measurable amounts of the heavier gases, ethane and propane. 
Measurement of the stable carbon isotopes of methane can provide additional 
resolution of biogenic methane versus thermal methane.

Amounts of migrated gases almost always decrease in the following order: 
methane > ethane > propane > butane. Thus, in a Pixler-type diagram, 
soil-gas data, like reservoir data, generally plot as line segments of 
positive slope for the soil gases to represent a typical migrated seep gas. 
Exceptions to this order have been noted where surface source rocks were drilled, 
which thus far have yielded ratios with lighter gases depleted in 
relation to heavier gases. According to Leythaeuser (1980), 
this would be expected if gases in the boundary layer very near the 
surface followed a diffusion model. Thus, compositional changes related 
to diffusion might be expected at or very near a boundary layer 
where the hydrocarbon gas concentration approaches zero. 
This behavior has been observed when comparing soil-gas probe data measured 
at very shallow depths (0.3 to 0.6 m, 1 to 2 ft) with their associated 
data from 4 m (13 ft). The probe data are always "oilier," 
indicating preferential loss of methane and implying diffusion from 
the 4-m (13-ft) level to the surface. If diffusion were the dominant 
migration mechanism, a chromatographic effect would be expected for 
gas that migrated through the earth. The fact that the compositions 
of the soil-gas data from 4 m (13 ft) so obviously reflect the underlying 
reservoirs implies that the major migration to the near-surface must be by 
faults and fractures rather than by diffusion. The following examples demonstrate 
a clear relationship between faults and surface-gas magnitudes. 
Lack of a chromatographic effect implies that the seepage must be continuous 
geologically. However, this does not rule out intermittent seepage on a historical basis.

At least two other papers cite chemical compositions of migrated hydrocarbons 
to predict the type of source deposit (gas, gas-condensate, or oil). 
Sokolov and Cheremisinov (1971) reported that the ratio of methane to total 
heavier gaseous hydrocarbons can be used as a criterion for hydrocarbon prospecting. 
The maximum ratio is 150 to 200 and corresponds to gas pools formed by 
distant lateral migration and to gases from mud volcanoes. 
Lower ratios correspond to oil fields with associated gas. 
They further stated that, "In those areas where the vertical migration does 
not substantially effect the formation of gas pools, this criterion can 
be used to predict oil and gas-condensate accumulation with probability equal to one.”

Panchenko and Bogdanov (1974) found that comparative analysis of 
water-dissolved gases in the pre-Caucasus can be used to predict oil, 
gas-condensate, or gas deposits. This prediction is based on methane and its homologs. 
The highest (30 to 50%) concentration of methane homologs is characteristic of oil deposits and the lowest (as much as 5%) is characteristic of gas. Gas-condensate fields show intermediate values.

Prediction of the type of subsurface deposit by use of near-surface soil-gas compositions represents an important accomplishment and offers strong evidence for the viability of soil-gas prospecting. This compositional relationship supports the genetic association between soil-gas hydrocarbons and reservoirs.

http://www.eti-geochemistry.com/j&d/images/figure08.html

http://www.eti-geochemistry.com/j&d/images/figure09.html

http://www.eti-geochemistry.com/j&d/tables/table03.html

The sugarloaf gas ratios can be determined over some of the sections 
by the information provided by Safiande and mpls. 
We discussed this on Saturaday and *the ratios from Sugar were between 19 and 31 for the gas samples returned.*

Reply from Saf, my bold emphasis:
"Peak gas reading in the secondary were 1000 but in the primary, Hosston, there were only 536.
It was known that one of the partners wanted just to test the secondary"

From what I have managed to establish this year, it seems like *the chalks ( sandstone & limestone ) were always the prime focus of this appraisal well i.e. to prove up the flow from the Block A well & that the deeper sands were the real secondary objective* i.e. not vice versa. AUT have stated that they will have another look at the sands from a different location ( lots of wells planned )so it is still game on there. EME are paying $1m for each of the production wells on Block B & $0.65m for each of the production wells on Block A, so will be expecting a very handsome return as this is prime real estate. Couch stated on 1 Dec 2006 that TCEI proved up 2tcf in the Hosston project over 26000 acres, so 18 wells seems to be the very tip of the iceberg.


----------



## Lucky_Country

All very quite lately everyones waiting for the next move up or down.
Delays are dissappointing at SL but hopefully all will be rewarded NT IMO is not all lost just need the next move in flow testing at the zone with "elevated readings"


----------



## Sprinter79

Surely all the money you guys have invested in this one could have been doing something useful somewhere else.


----------



## Broadside

Sprinter79 said:


> Surely all the money you guys have invested in this one could have been doing something useful somewhere else.




In a perfect world 100% of your cash is placed on the fastest rising stocks, it isn't perfect, only hindsight is.  Very happy to have money sitting in Sugarloaf prospects, despite rest of my portfolio outperforming.  When the time comes it should catch up and then some if results as holders hope.


----------



## Ken

For your information.

None of the top 20  holders have sold a share.


I emailed alex in regards to future of operations and he said n.t was disappointing but there is a lot to look forward too.


The so called smart money is still holding. if top 20 are still around.

I see similarities with MAE in the fact the stock has very few shares on offer.  If people see ADI trading at 30 cents in the future I would be suprised.  We are around support levels I believe.

Alex also said they were continuing to look at future projects.

Not starting reading into it deeply, but it seems they are active in their exploration.


----------



## fflintoff

Much better next time to respect the confidential nature of private emails from the management on a public board particularly as there is a pm facility here.


----------



## chops_a_must

fflintoff said:


> Much better next time to respect the confidential nature of private emails from the management on a public board particularly as there is a pm facility here.




I have a couple of problems with this, buddy.

Firstly, you aren't a resident here, or as far as I know a citizen, yet you are telling a citizen and resident in this country what not to do. We aren't your colony, and we aren't your subjects.

Secondly, if there are things that management are saying that can't be disclosed publically, then that is grounds for insider trading. If they are saying things that aren't being disclosed to the market, that contravenes the company's obligations and shareholders rights under continuous disclosure regulations.


----------



## maverick11

chops_a_must said:


> I have a couple of problems with this, buddy.
> 
> Firstly, you aren't a resident here, or as far as I know a citizen, yet you are telling a citizen and resident in this country what not to do. We aren't your colony, and we aren't your subjects.





hahaha WTF this is laughable!!  I hope this is a joke... you just blew your creditability out the window there chops and I find your comment offensive.

I'm sure he now has a problem with you calling him "buddy"...very condescending.

FYI flintoff has contributed plenty to this thread - more than I can say for you.  I get the impression you come here just to release steam for your own personal amusment - something no one here appreciates.


----------



## sandlion

Yeah, take this attitude back to HC. And while you are at it, thank the British for giving you a country, a value system and a sense of humour to call your own you, you convict...hahaha...


----------



## chops_a_must

maverick11 said:


> FYI flintoff has contributed plenty to this thread - more than I can say for you.  I get the impression you come here just to release steam for your own personal amusment - something no one here appreciates.



The only thing that has been losing steam is the ADI share price.

The first comment was a joke, but none the less, I don't like seeing people being told what to do, especially when they are doing the right thing. 

The second of my comments is entirely valid.


----------



## barney

chops_a_must said:


> The only thing that has been losing steam is the ADI share price.
> 
> The first comment was a joke, but none the less, I don't like seeing people being told what to do, especially when they are doing the right thing.
> 
> The second of my comments is entirely valid.





Hi Chops,  Might be time to let the cat out of the bag! 

Now correct me if I'm wrong, but what many around here may not realise is, that you like to stir the pot a little (in good humour of course, but you often don't let on that its in humour cause that would spoil your fun !!  Am i warm?  Mmmm ... I think so!!)

Firstly, Myself and Chops have had minimal posts/discussions with each other, so this is purely my own observation/speculation ...., but, I like to think I read people fairly well ...........

You enjoy "pulling peoples chain" , and even though you "stand by" your comments (as above), there is always the "thrill" of "generating a response" .......... 

I can handle that ............ Others may not realise your "style", and when its all said and done, you're just commenting with respect to your own makeup/personality .............. so if you like to stir, thats fine with me ........... I personally like to take the more "laid back/respectful" approach, but that is just a reflection of my personality, and is no more correct than yours ............. so ................ 

There is no need to take offence to what Chops (or anyone else) says on a forum site, BUT, imo, treat everyone with respect until they deserve otherwise ............ 

So Chops, I hereby give you the "spoon" award for the resident stirrer ........... and after all, what else would you expect from a drummer!!!!  

PS This is probably not the best thread to be "stirring" people, cause most of us ADI holders are suffering a bit at the moment (myself included) Cheers to all, and sorry for the ramblings.


----------



## Agentm

5.3 There are some exceptions to the requirement to disclose information
to the ASX, as set out in ASX listing rule 3.1A:
“[The obligation to disclose] does not apply to particular information
while all of the following are satisfied.
· A reasonable person would not expect the information to be
disclosed.
· The information is confidential and ASX has not formed the view
that the information has ceased to be confidential.
· One or more of the following applies.
o It would be a breach of a law to disclose the information.
o The information concerns an incomplete proposal or
negotiation.
o The information comprises matters of supposition or is
insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure.
o The information is generated for the internal management
purposes of the entity.​o The information is a trade secret.”


there is no certanty in the O&G game, just a chance of things that could happen..
therefor its near impossible to announce anything unless your certian as you can be, and sometimes you are and still things go wrong and you lose a well..
ADI has a high risk high reward profile on most of its wells it has on the books..  

hence we get little reporting as you may see on other companies disclosures..
the more confident you are the better you may want to disclose..  

AZZ declared the NT well a discovery, and now they look rather stupid, i quizzed adi on why they wouldnt follow suit, and they thought there was insufficient data to announce the well as a discovery, and in hindsight they were correct. AZZ has seen a 25% correction on their sp since the announcement the 16000 play was sub commercial.. we still await a decision on the 14000 play..

 ADI have a very pro conservative stance..  everyone is blatently aware of  the fact there is a massive play under the jvp's leases, but unfortunately its not proven, and being explored and analysed constantly by the jvp's.. Until some success is made in the Sl1 and block A wells, then its not possible for the jvp's to disclose a great deal of anything.. If you research the logs from couch, and then research the austin chalks, and understand why horizontal drilling is so paramount for sustained  commercial flow, and if you calculate the acreage the jvp's have and do a little maths, you begin to see how large a play this can become,  but unless you can unlock the chalks with  effective wells, then your sitting on a play that vertical drilling will struggle to get the reserves out, horizontal does a lot more for the profitibilty of a well if done correctly and if your geology is spot on..  

but in saying that, having a major oil company successfully producing from a vertical production well on block a already, the chances of success on the horizontal are significant, and as we have the same turf, and the same play... it gives the appearance that the amount of effort and dollars spent so far on this play has got to have some credibilty.. thats why i hold..

all imho and dyor


----------



## megla

whooo hooo this is good. I just left my 8 & 14 yo's having a barney, sat down to see what happening in the world of ADI, and blow me away, I thought my kids were online!!

:


----------



## Agentm

i was checking out the sugarloaf leases on the weekend that TCEI and the jvp's have secured, and was blown away with the size of the prospect. They have certainly would have raised some eyebrows when they suddenly put all the leases.. So the first part is done, and now there is clearly nothing stopping the future of SL.. permits can now be put in and wells can be drilled on the permits.

Looking at block A is was equally impressed with the size of the play there.. right next door to the production well, the recently drilled block A horizontal well is finished and being tested.. the results of that well will guide the jvp's in the right direction on how to drill the plays they are after.

Interesting that there is also a top 10 US gas producer with 2 production wells and a further 4 wells being drilled or completed right now on the very edges of our leases. then theres pioneer making some announcements of their successes in the area, and circling the leases also.. some wells are on production and others are about to be.. abnd they talk of extending pipelines into the region also.. 

It seems at the depth we are at, i see all the wells going in are 100% successful, commercial and all producing, no P&A,, yet you look at other wildcat wells on the go in the area at different depths, and you get a different picture.. absolutely not 100% successes.. is that the indications of a proven play or what??

I am holding right to the end on this one, once you see a top 10 corporation of the world with you on a play as big as these leases are, and you see how many wells they have been drilling and the dollars spent, i have little doubt from my research that there is a lot going on and commercial wells are going in all over the shop...

I saw that TCEI has been on this for 12 years or more, i can see that in my research, they sure have had a lot of time in the area.. and i see they are now in a position where they have the lions share of the acreage in the region. they jvp we are in has over 20,000 acres alone.. and thats only a part of it!! the TCEI appraoch to getting their facts right, then buying acreage once they knew what was what, has been planned with precision, and the jvp's have the use of all the technology, expertise and the full understandings from all the testing that the major oil company has done, and is currently undertaking..

i look at what they have done over the past decade, and look at what TCEI is doing now in the region, and it shows all the signs of a major project about to happen.. 

imho in about 4 weeks or so we have a different profile on ADI,, as testing results have to be announced, its easy to understand the delays at SL, but its very very bullish to be securing the acreage the jvp's have, and be bound to that many leases across the county.. 

for me the most impressive thing i got out of checking the entire area out is the size of it, the amount of wells producing right now all around the leases, the fact no one has been drilling to the depth TCEI and the jvp's are in the leases before, it seems to have all the indications of a pretty impressive discovery written all over it..

I cant see that this is a 150bcf play, i would expect maybe 2% of the activity and leases these guys have taken out and we would never see a jvp like what is happening here, with massive investments in the area by a major oil company.. i just cant see TCEI would be spending the time and resouces with a majpr oil company and buying the leases they have all for a measly 150bcf!!??!! 

somethings happening in texas alright.. big time.. adi is great value imho


as usual all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## HOMER J

UPDATE. interesting reading re the sugarkane field nearby...

11 July 2007
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
SUGARLOAF PROJECT UDPATE
Sugarloaf-1 Well
The rig required to undertake remedial cementation and formation testing has arrived on
site. Remedial cementation operations will start immediately and could take up to three
weeks to complete. This will be followed by fracture stimulation and flow testing of each
of the three zones of possible gas pay, identified from wire-line logs and gas shows in
carbonate rocks of Cretaceous age.
For engineering reasons the deepest zone will be tested first. Should any of the zones of
interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be
placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance.
Sugarkane Gas Field
The upper zone of possible gas pay in the Sugarloaf-1 well is believed to correlate with
the producing zone in a competitor company’s new field discovery well, located 6.6
kilometres west of the Sugarloaf-1 well. The new discovery is known as the Sugarkane Gas
Field (“Sugarkane Field”). Adelphi has no interest in the discovery well or the lease
holdings immediately surrounding that well. Details of the discovery are not available but
the well is vertical and is believed to have been producing gas and condensate
continuously for more than eight months.
Although the upper zone of possible pay in the Sugarloaf-1 well has not yet been flow
tested, on wire-line log, gas log and regional seismic interpretation grounds, the upper
zone in Sugarloaf-1 appears to be within the Sugarkane Field.
Study of regional seismic and well information by Texas Crude Energy Inc. (“TCEI” –
operator of the Sugarloaf Joint Venture) suggests the Sugarkane Field is extensive and, as
recently announced, the Sugarloaf Joint Venture has now secured a total of around
20,000 acres of leases (of which Adelphi has a 20% interest) which cover portion of the
interpreted eastern extension of the Sugarkane Field. These leases provide rights to all
depths. The leasing of the Sugarloaf acreage was carried out in competition with several
USA oil and gas companies, including at least one major oil company.
2
Proposed Sugarloaf-2 Well
As leasing of acreage is now essentially complete, the Sugarloaf Project Operator (TCEI)
has proposed the drilling of a second well, located about 1.6 kilometres from the
Sugarloaf-1 well.
The well is an exploration well and is proposed to be drilled vertically to just above the
target and then horizontally for 5,000 feet (1,524 metres) in the target upper zone of
possible gas pay defined in Sugarloaf-1. As already mentioned, this is the zone which is
believed to correlate with the producing section in the Sugarkane Field discovery well.
Horizontal drilling has been selected, as successful horizontal wells commonly produce at
rates several times that of a vertical well at the same point in the reservoir.
A suitable rig has been identified and subject to Joint Venture approval and execution
of relevant documentation, is expected on location about the end of August. Adelphi’s
20% share of dry hole costs are approximately US$720,000 based on a gross estimated
dry hole cost of US$3.6 million for this well. Total well completion costs are estimated at
US$1.65 million (Adelphi share US$330,000).
Adelphi has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf Project through its wholly-owned US
subsidiary Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc.
For further information please contact Alex Forcke on 08-9263 4600 or
info@adelphienergy.com.au
Yours faithfully
ALEX FORCKE
Executive Chairman
Adelphi Energy Limited


----------



## Lucky_Country

Talking it up thats not like Alex's style he must be confident !
All the pieces in the jigsaw seem complete now lets see the picture !


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Talking it up thats not like Alex's style he must be confident !
> All the pieces in the jigsaw seem complete now lets see the picture !





the picture matches all my research perfectly.. matches all permits and pre permits..

I know exactly what they are talking about and where they are drilling..

Sugarkane is a producing field, and proven, and we are drilling right on their doorstep..  

this is remarkable, a new well before they have tested SL1!!!

if your holding i suggest you wait a while before selling,, you may be in for a real shock once you realise how big this field is..

TCEi and the JVP's have got a massive amount of leases..


----------



## chance fate

...so far so good...  2nd well is an exploration well - presumably not contingent on success at SL1...  but still depends on JV approvals - tho' looks like they won't have announced this intention unless there is a strong likelihood of proceeding (imo)....  does anyone know the interval thickness of the upper level...  would be interesting to calc the potential reserves based on say half the acquired acreage being equal to reservoir area...  would estimate 200 Bcf per 10m...  so sp potentially a couple of $'s down the track???  oh and please hurry up adi before the operators of the adjacent acreage deplete the field!!!!


----------



## sam76

Does anyone know what the results were from the Sugarkane operators drilling progam was?

Surely, they must have had an idea of the size of the potential??


----------



## Agentm

yep, have been watching it for months..

there are 2 production wells north of our leases and xto have 4 wells being drilled right now in a east west direction directly in line with our wells.

pioneer have a well to the west of the field, and is about to go on production.. legend and enduring are chasing the play to the south, some wells are being drilled some are alreadyu on production..

the major oil company has a production well vertical and now the horizontal.. and one other that i wont discuss yet until later..

There is no doubt the play is significant, in terms of miles between all the different oil companies wells the distance is vast.. and i looked hard at the TCEI leases and the major oil company's leases, and they have it all sewn up..  

wait for EME now, they will have to annouce more on the 16 wells now.. so expect some breaking news there,, the best thing is the horizontal is proven and therefor the jvp's are going ahead..

if only you knew how much oil and gas these wells are capable of producing..

5000 feet horizontal... on the sugarkane discovery!!  

thats some well!!!!


----------



## Agentm

i guess forthose who dont read other forums.. this is important

enjoy..


Safiande* - 11 Jul'07 - 07:17 - 43784 of 43788*


This is a bit of background on Sugarkane which is in the public domain.

BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP is a subsidiary of ConocoPhillips ( COP ) & was bought by COP last year. 
This well which is horizontal is probably the first well in the 16 well deal with TCEI & referred to in the EME RNSs on 10 May & 21 Jun. The currently producing well ( non EME interest ) is vertical:-

“LIVE OAK COUNTY 
ConocoPhillips Company of Houston has filed for a permit to horizontally drill the No. 3 Kunde in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) field. With a proposed total depth of 12,200 feet, the well will be in Section 31 of the J. F. Hulzar Survey A-221. 
Source: RigMatch Information Services, Inc., Palestine , TX ”

http://www.caller.com/ccct/oil_gas_report/article/0,1641,CCCT_832_5414609,00.html

SUGARKANE (CRTCS) (G) DRILL (HORZ)(37) Well# 3 KUNDE. NO. 1 GAS UNIT, SHL: 1128 FSL 253 FEL BHL: 4567 FSL. 3664 FEL, SEC 120, J INGRAM SUR., A-26112200',

http://www.oilonline.com/key/drill_reports_update_0307.pdf


----------



## chance fate

ok thanks AgentM... ConocoPhilips is the major next door....  don't know if it's significant but couldn't help notice the descrepancy in the location description of the Kunde no.3 well..:

ConocoPhillips Company of Houston has filed for a permit to horizontally drill the No. 3 Kunde in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) field. With a proposed total depth of 12,200 feet, the well will be in Section 31 of the _J. F. Hulzar Survey A-221. _

SUGARKANE (CRTCS) (G) DRILL (HORZ)(37) Well# 3 KUNDE. NO. 1 GAS UNIT, SHL: 1128 FSL 253 FEL BHL: 4567 FSL. 3664 FEL, SEC 120, _J INGRAM SUR., A-261_12200', (J Ingram Survay A-261)


----------



## fflintoff

EME has stated that the horizontal well is still being drilled which seems to be contrary to earlier info that it has reached TD.


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> ok thanks AgentM... ConocoPhilips is the major next door.... don't know if it's significant but couldn't help notice the descrepancy in the location description of the Kunde no.3 well..:
> 
> ConocoPhillips Company of Houston has filed for a permit to horizontally drill the No. 3 Kunde in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) field. With a proposed total depth of 12,200 feet, the well will be in Section 31 of the _J. F. Hulzar Survey A-221. _
> 
> SUGARKANE (CRTCS) (G) DRILL (HORZ)(37) Well# 3 KUNDE. NO. 1 GAS UNIT, SHL: 1128 FSL 253 FEL BHL: 4567 FSL. 3664 FEL, SEC 120, _J INGRAM SUR., A-261_12200', (J Ingram Survay A-261)





Ok, its a little complex, but basically Conocophillips put in the permit for the kunde 1 well, and made a big mistake, then quickly had the permit changed to burlington resources..

they drilled the kunde 1 well, which was a success on the vertical..

then last year came kunde 2, (same rig as SL1- hence the delays for SL1 last year) i notice in the UK forums they are noticing this well and trying to figure out and cant get their heads around it.. i can say my research showed that kunde 2 was a twin well, CP had wanted to do further testing and twinned the first well, and did do some extensive testing, the well was subsequently shut in.

From that CP and TCEI had the understandings to confidently drill a third well, Kunde 3, this time horizontal. it was spudded 21st may 2007 is currently working on being completed..

From the results of that well we see TCEI and our JVP going ahead with sugarloaf 2, SL1 & 2 are on the SUGARKANE field, if you look at the well logs for SL1 you will notice they have the same plays at the exact same depth as the Kunde wells.. we have a pretty big field happening here so far and its only the start..

Now i cant vouch for the RCC figures about kunde 1, but i can say i have heard from other sources the well is going very good, and I can imagine the Kunde 3 horizontal well has delivered all they really expected.

SL2 is half way between SL1 and Kunde 1&3,, so maybe a touch over 2 miles each direction, and in a direct line between the two wells. so smack in the middle. they are going horizontal for the same zone that kunde 1 and 3 have, and the same sugarkane play we have at SL1.. so it no wildcatter, its more of a infill well..

Now i have seen how extensive CP leases are going west into live oak, and i have seen how extensive TCEI has been in the eastern corner part of live oak and the western quarter of karnes.. so i can also conclude from the 2ds that cp did a long while back, that where the leases are being bought, are more or less where the areas of interest are and follows the 2d's pretty accurately.. 

i have to say i think ADI has been very very bullish and has been very honest in saying they have snapped up with TCEI the eastern zones of the sugarkane play. competing heavily against CP and a bunch of other big operators. it confirms all my research from the last months or more, and matches up to all the permits, pre permits, and leases bought by CP and TCEI perfectly. so CP are at their far eastern aspect of their leases, and we are in the far western aspects of ours...

SL2 is as i say no wildcat, its a development well.. make no mistake if your a holder and thinking of selling,, understand the JVP's are very very bullish and have every right to expect great success in the middle of the two zones of interest. but in no way is it defining the overall size of the field. we may have a good fifth or so, or maybe a quarter of the field? who knows.. each well has been a success, each part of the development of the field signalled the next phase to commence..

i fully expect EME to announce further wells with CP in the near term, if TCEI is doing it on our leases then CP will be doing it on theirs.. gradually spreading outwards no doubt initially, then later a 16 well program to define the entire field.. SL2 will be part of the picture, part of the equation, as will SL1 when its fianlised, as i said before, just a test well,, i am sure some horizontals will have to follow at SL1 at some stage..

you dont do stuff like this unless you have done extensive 3d's and your have really got a good grip on the potential of the play and a lot of confidence in your research.. ADI have indicated extensive flow tesing of the SL1 well,, there are good reasons for that.. everything has a reason and i am extremely happy with firstly and foremost TCEI, and the management at ADI and ARQ.. brilliant work so far.. 

if your a holder of ADI or any of the jvp's, think real careful about the potentail of these wells,, this isnt 150bcf type stuff, there is a lot going on and truck load of secrecy so far, and if you believe thats over 150bcf then i think your being a little to conservative.. is a real chance of 500bcf and possibly tcf coming into the equation on 20,000 acres... i am certainly hoping for the latter..

great to see that ADI have bee given the green light to spread the word..

all news that i see is absolutely brilliant.. if ADI did not announce SL2 i was going to sell out.. as it would have meant the horizontals were not going to be a success.. now i am going to hold for a long long time..

hope it helps..

this share should be going bluesky.. i see alot more reasons to see this sp go crazy than what i have ever seen from the gdn senario.. we have a proven discovery called sugarkane... 

wake up..



cheers


----------



## HOMER J

> this share should be going bluesky.. i see alot more reasons to see this sp go crazy than what i have ever seen from the gdn senario.. we have a proven discovery called sugarkane...
> 
> wake up..
> 
> 
> 
> cheers





Agree with you, to me it looks like the wait will be well worth it. Seems the market is slowly waking up. EKA moving nicely too. Sugarloaf certainly looks like its in the right neighbourhood...........


----------



## fflintoff

Originally showed Conocophillips rather than Burlington as the operator as they wanted to conceal the identity of the former even though Burlington is a subsidiary of Conoco.

“Operator name corrected per plat. It was discovered after the permit was approved that the wrong operator name was listed on the filing, even though it shows the correct operator name on the plat, it just wasn't caught at the time”

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...name=KUNDE+NO.+1+GAS+UNIT&univDocNo=484580614


----------



## The Snorkler

All in all a great, bullish announcement from ADI. Agentm your research appears to be coming true before our eyes. Did Alex use one of your posts as a template for his announcement? Is Agentm Alex?

The strategy now will be to drill secret horizontal wells under their lease and begin to draw out the fluids to our side


----------



## Logique

Thanks Agentm for the research,
have watched this one go up and come back down again. Was tempted many times, decided it had potential but still a bit speculative. And I own ARQ anyway. However these recent announcements reinforce the potential, the story is more convincing. Have taken the plunge, I like where this is headed.


----------



## Agentm

wish i had those 1.5 mill shares alex has!!

I am glad some have seen value in the research.. 

logique, i dont see any way the sp will ever go south, not for a long long time.. if you take the worst case senario of 500bcf, then we have many dollars to come yet..

I see there are plenty of people getting a taste of the sugarkane now,, it becomes a little too tempting to resist.

I think the Kunde 4 well has to be announced very soon by CP, once that happens then it and SL2 will be equal distance from Kunde 3..

I gather the news of that well will raise the expectations of SL2, as their well will signal equal bullishness by the CP / TCEI camp on the western side of sugarkane.. with TCEI drilling where they are, its pretty obvious the CP well will also spud..

XTO have 2 production wells vertical and 4 on the drill, so i dont think
the likelyhood of SL2 and kunde 4 being a dry hole is really on the cards..
if your your producing commercially from a vertical well with worse porosity and no condensate.. then these wells on the best acreages are going to be pretty amazing producers..

Well done ADI and TCEI on getting there..


----------



## Agentm

the oil and gas weekly certainly had a big impact..

with the amount of misinformation the big "study" had, i cant see how you could see any value in his research..

nothing made sense,,  sugarkane#1??????  whats that?? doesnt know who are in the JVP.. fails to mention EME completely, and the others!!!

for a study, he certainly didnt contact any of the JVP's, and was too scared to actually contact the operator in texas, TCEI.. i will forward to them the article for them to enjoy.. i am certain Mr Fluor doesnt feel the way Mr campbell does about sugarkane... what an insult.. to proclaim that tcei is dishonest and SL1 does not have the Sugarkane plays in the upper sections!!!  

I think if i was mr JC, i would be laying low for a while!!!  not a good think to piss off texas billionaires!!  firstly to hammer the jvp's over the primary,, and to accuse the jvp's of hyping the play!! comparing them to GDN!!

Conocophillips has done extensive testing on the sugarkane play, and from my research i see three wells on the lease so far and two more to come with in 2 miles of the current wells.. 

EME had a massive surge yesterday, on no news!!  so the indications are that the horizontal kunde 3 well must be going very very well indeed..

again, i reiterate,  if you believe mr campbells research, check into it before you act..  he claims we dont have sugarkane at all.. ADI and the jvp's have announced we do and its a discovery... talk to the director of the jvp's before you act..  they will give it some balance..


Mr JC has got well names wrong, isnt aware conocophillips did extensive 2d's over 5 years back across live oak and karnes... isnt aware of the massive leases cp holds, and isnt aware of how extensive our 20,000 acres is either..  we have the eastern section of the sugarkane play under our leases..

i am convinced tcei knows its stuff, we have sugarkane, as well as another play....  i would put conocophillips, TCEI and any of the jvp's reserach and judgement in first place over mt jc's research

now i have invested with adi and fully support all that TCEI has done as operator,, JC is clearly too scared to go after Mr Fluor, he is a mover and shaker, and walks a different path to mr JC..  i wouldnt want to be in jc's shoes right now as TCEI is serious about what they are doing, and have always acted professionally,, to be disrespected by the likes of mr JC is not a good thing.. 

I would have loved the article to be balances,, jc is obviously very emotional about being so wrong all along about this JVP. he tears shreads off the jvp's for reporting what they had in the sands... but instead of informing the readers of his article with facts in a balaned fashion, he is basically disrespecting and discrediting the jvp's !!  without checking facts, and without even contacting the jvp's nor the operator and checking his story out!!

some study...  i would be heading out of the country right now.. wow!!


time for the drill but to do the talking!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## fflintoff

Fluor ( CEO ) & Weiner ( President ) at TCEI are entitled to a public retraction.

Texas Crude Energy, Inc.
(713) 599-9900 • Texas Crude Building • 2803 Buffalo Speedway • Houston, Texas 77098 • Fax ( 713 ) 599-9910
MAILING ADDRESS: P.O. BOX 56586 HOUSTON, TEXAS 77256-6586


----------



## Broadside

if anyone has the report by John Campbell could they IM it to me please, it sounds like its bordering on libelous!  thanks if you can help.  I am not parting with any stock in ADI and EKA but I am curious exactly what he said.


----------



## Agentm

there are far better publications out there PEX are brilliant, and give complete well data and progress and status reports on wells all over the country..  and their observations are purely that, no editorial comment and absolutely no lashing out at companies..  

i think you can do way better than oil and gas weekly for your dollars..

I have to say that i am now past thinking 500bcf,  and i am on the tcf bandwagon big time!!  things are just stacking up every way i look,, i cant see anything smaller than tcf at all..  couchy is quite possibly wrong in one sense,, he may very well be understimating the amount of wells..  

100 well for the oil alone is correct, and many times that perhaps for the gas..

all imho and dyor..

The sugarkane play is absolutely enormous..


----------



## Broadside

Thanks AgentM, had a look at some samples of PEX monthly, it looks good and the more information available the better when the action starts.  If Sugarloaf goes well I may be permanently bitten by the oil & gas bug.  Cheers.

PS Should I say "if Sugarloaf goes 100 wells "


----------



## Agentm

Broadside said:


> Thanks AgentM, had a look at some samples of PEX monthly, it looks good and the more information available the better when the action starts. If Sugarloaf goes well I may be permanently bitten by the oil & gas bug. Cheers.
> 
> PS Should I say "if Sugarloaf goes 100 wells "





sugarkane!!

conocophillips have really taken a massive piece of the live oak county out, maybe i will put up a presentation of all the leases that we own and CP own..

i dont know how far this field is, but indications are that the 150bcf is just completely implausable, 1 tcf on patchy acreages,  and the better the structure the better the numbers..  somehow the tcei camp must have 2d's and 3d's that give them real definitions and very possibly 2tcf or more in the sugarkane field.. we have the eastern section, so conocophillips must be on multi tcf also..

only a few weeks before testing begins..   no wonder no one is selling, thes shares are extra tightly held currently


----------



## chance fate

... just a thought to add to the excitement pre-testing and drilling sl2...  and that is conocophillips wouldn't be wasting engineering resources on this field unless it is substantial i.e. in the Tcf range - they could have simply sold it on....  could be wrong but if it is less that would be the realm of the minors/midcaps...   on the other hand maybe they just inherited it via Burlington Resources.....????


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> ... just a thought to add to the excitement pre-testing and drilling sl2... and that is conocophillips wouldn't be wasting engineering resources on this field unless it is substantial i.e. in the Tcf range - they could have simply sold it on.... could be wrong but if it is less that would be the realm of the minors/midcaps... on the other hand maybe they just inherited it via Burlington Resources.....????





conocophillips have been there a lot longer than you think!!  this sugarkane discovery is being declared until after kunde 3 was completed...

you cant declare a discovery like sugarkane unless you can back it up with proof,, so TCEI and the jvp's have absolute certanty that the discovery can be announced...

unfortunately absolutely no one seems to understand the significance nor the size of the discovery, its not 50 bcf, not 170 bcf... you simply dont spend the time and resources on a play that size... 

NY is like 50bcf or so... you dont see anything like the activity and money and testing  on that well..

wake up.. this is a discovery that has tcf written all over it..


----------



## chance fate

some quick maths...  

50 Bcf = 50000MMscf
50000/365 = 137 MMscf/d
137/10 = 13.7 MMscf/d (spread over 10 years)

each horizontal well will need to do this much to recover 100 Bcf

horizontal wells are usually several times more productive than vertical ...  so does anyone know what the Kunde vertical well is flowing at???


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> some quick maths...
> 
> 50 Bcf = 50000MMscf
> 50000/365 = 137 MMscf/d
> 137/10 = 13.7 MMscf/d (spread over 10 years)
> 
> each horizontal well will need to do this much to recover 100 Bcf
> 
> horizontal wells are usually several times more productive than vertical ... so does anyone know what the Kunde vertical well is flowing at???





you need a 12 didgit calculator, and then it fails also..

theres much around on the production at kunde 1..  and i think there are factors regarding that, things that are not taken into consideration by many..  i would say once EME reveals the numbers of kunde 3 then you dont need to guess..

they started driling kunde 3 two months ago, and all eme have said is that it has spudded..  well i think we can expect some news soon, the fact TCEI decided to put in SL2 says enough to me that kunde 3 must be brilliant..


----------



## chance fate

..the productivity of sl2 will to some extent depend on the level of natural fracturing in the chalk...(will they rely on this instead of artificially fraccing in the horizontal well?).. in some areas the chalk is quite tight ... reckon that's why they need 1.5 km's horizontal section.... but you'd think if production is occuring already only a short distance away there is a good chance that the reservoir quality is good enough on the jv leases too...


----------



## chance fate

..EKA in a trading halt, AUT in a trading halt, EME now up 20% or 11 quid, in London today...  does anyone know what's going on???  AgentM????


----------



## Lucky_Country

Interesting with the trading halt EKA until Tuesday AUT till wednesday maybe ADI will go into a halt tomorrow before open ?
Now Im excited


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Interesting with the trading halt EKA until Tuesday AUT till wednesday maybe ADI will go into a halt tomorrow before open ?
> Now Im excited





you better be excited..

if you can,, get some shares on eme today!!

this is going to explode guys..  

the time has arrived!!!


----------



## maverick11

oh man!!!! I'm so excited...nearly 12 months of waiting so finally it seems the cat is going to be let out of the bag 

EME up nearly 30% in first hour!!!


----------



## HOMER J

something seems to be up, and not just EME!  Wonder if ADI will be halted before open tomorrow?.........


EME price link:
http://www.advfn.com/quote_Empyrean_LSE_EME.html


----------



## Agentm

HOMER J said:


> something seems to be up, and not just EME!  Wonder if ADI will be halted before open tomorrow?.........
> 
> 
> EME price link:
> http://www.advfn.com/quote_Empyrean_LSE_EME.html





30% rise on eme..

2 of the jvp's on a trading halt..

and agentm is hardly going to sleep thru this one..

enjoy the ride tomorrow.. buy early!!


----------



## Agentm

great start to the day..

the acreages TCEI got with the jvp's is worth looking at.

I looked at them over the past month, pulled up the 2d's that conocophillips did, and the areas in karnes county where the sugarkane prospect is, and has been secured by TCEI

*Study of regional seismic and well information by Texas Crude Energy Inc. (“TCEI” – operator of the Sugarloaf Joint Venture) suggests the Sugarkane Field is extensive and, as recently announced, the Sugarloaf Joint Venture has now secured a total of around 20,000 acres of leases (of which Adelphi has a 20% interest) which cover portion of the interpreted eastern extension of the Sugarkane Field. These leases provide rights to all depths. The leasing of the Sugarloaf acreage was carried out in competition with several USA oil and gas companies, including at least one major oil company.*


once the battle was over, the JVP has now announced that the acreages were fought over real hard.. 

the AUT extra acreages have not had that same fierce competition,, i am not saying the additional AUT acreages are just pipe dreams, but you have to consider the importance of what it means to be in direct competition with "one major oil company" on the 20,000 acres, as apposed to the more newly aquired acreages recently announced by AUT.

we are fortunate to be able to have snared the eastern aspect of the sugarkane field from conocophillips, but sugarkane doesnt go on for ever.. it certainly would be highly prospective where the hotly contested acreages we have are.. the additional acreages have not been announced with the same fanfare!!

IMHO i feel the sugarkane is under the 20,000 acres, and thats only on the research i have done,, i dont know it for certain!! but i cant see the JVP just letting additional acreages go to individual members of the jvp without themselves understanding the significance of the geology..

ARQ has a good crew of geologists, as does EME, and these two members have not sought the additional acreages.. what does that tell you.. 


In my view the greater significant part of the territory was the territory hard fought for by the sugarloaf TCEI JVP. 

if you are aware of all the wells in the region, and what they produce (gas or gas and oil) then you get an idea of which are on the sugarkane play and which are on only perhaps one play.

regardless of the prospectivity of acreages and additional acreages, the absolute truth in the recent announcement is blaring obvious..

why would a major oil company be fighting for acreages we secured??

the only answer is multi TCF!!

if you think the share is worth selling for .70 then thats your deal, but i wouldnt think the share would be worth anything less than $5 if a major oil company just lost 20,000 acres of sugarkane..

DYOR, but dont sell out too cheaply.. think about what the play has to be for a major oil company like conocophillips to be involved..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## chance fate

Re. EKA halt:

Dear Sir

The Company's request for a trading halt is due to a transaction that is
under negotiation. We anticipate that an announcement will be made before
the opening of trading on Tuesday 24 July. Trading in the company's
securities should begin at this time.

Regards,

Jennifer Strydom

Executive Assistant

any thoughts as to what the transaction is.....?

anyhow...no need to wait for the ann til next tuesday...  keep an eye on aut on monday tho'....


----------



## Broadside

the word on Hotcopper from rice01 is that AUT and EKA are together getting more acreage.  I guess we'll find out early next week.  EKA would probably need to raise more funds if that is the case, but it's a positive move for them even if it dilutes my options somewhat.


----------



## chance fate

..oh... if that's what they're up to i'm happy for them to 'diversify' - hoping they actually come up with something decent...  makes the overall stock less risky too...  in their position (if it was my co.) i'd assume they'd go down a lower risk road to ensure they can get some cash flow in the near term...  perhaps they're doing something with EME also????


----------



## Broadside

more acreage around Sugarloaf / Sugarkane is how I read it, so don't know if it will decrease the risk of EKA....it is the same project.


----------



## chance fate

...If it is sugarkane/sugarloaf then it'll be interesting to see what ADI has passed up on and why...  anyhow there's going to be some anxious pacing around my lounge room this weekend!!!


----------



## Broadside

I doubt it was the primo real estate or all the partners would have grabbed it, perhaps more speculative but it may add to the blue sky for the later punters if SL-1 delivers and Kunde 3 etc.


----------



## barney

Broadside said:


> I doubt it was the primo real estate or all the partners would have grabbed it, perhaps more speculative but it may add to the blue sky for the later punters if SL-1 delivers and Kunde 3 etc.




Just thinking out aloud here, but if EKA and AUT are the least funded of the JV partners, could it be possible Texas Crude is making them both a "buy out" offer, considering the future costs to develop the Sugarloaf area will be large??................ ADI are well funded, so will be able to meet the financial costs required  .............  Just a thought ............. Could be way off the mark, but it would explain why ADI are not involved in the T/Halt ??


----------



## Agentm

i hear theres a lot of things happening in texas right now..

and ADI has a large presence in the area.. 

Dont think that the play can be underestimated.. 

these trading halts are absolutely  related to the things we are all concerned about..

conocophillips wouldnt be bothering with a small play under a few tcf...

wake up adi investors,, your selling yourself short big time.. in a few weeks you wont be seeing anything under $2.. 

hold long..


----------



## Broadside

barney, if TCEI made a move like that it, it would be because Sugarloaf/kane was a no brainer winner, and if that were the case I couldn't see EKA or AUT entertaining the idea of getting taken out so close to the finishing line.  It would truly have to be an offer too good to refuse.  They may need more funds to develop, but that will be a good problem to have because it would mean success and they ought to be able to raise a lot of money at much higher prices than today...and not all at once, incrementally.  Hopefully the first few wells would fund the next few etc...can't build 100 wells all at once!

Well that's how I see it anyway.


----------



## nioka

Broadside said:


> the word on Hotcopper from rice01 is that AUT and EKA are together getting more acreage.  I guess we'll find out early next week.  EKA would probably need to raise more funds if that is the case, but it's a positive move for them even if it dilutes my options somewhat.




If you read the AUT announcements you will see that AUT has negotiated considerable acerage adjacent to Sugarloaf (or read posts on AUT.)


----------



## chance fate

... as far as i can see all the announcements 'til now on the acreage acquisition have been made without the need for a trading halt...  could EKA and AUT be doing a merger deal? if so what would be the benefit???


----------



## Broadside

chance fate said:


> ... as far as i can see all the announcements 'til now on the acreage acquisition have been made without the need for a trading halt...  could EKA and AUT be doing a merger deal? if so what would be the benefit???




the other riddle is why did AUT go into trading halt 24 hours before Eureka?  if they are the same deal why was EKA still trading all of yesterday?


----------



## Agentm

i am not concerned about the trading halt, as its not changing the outcome of anything ADI is up to..

the transaction means funds..

the only thing that they need funds for is to pay themselves more or if they want to buy something..  

i still feel the biggest single issue is why would you sell today when the likes of every major oil company and conocophillips were trying to get them from you???

again only one conclusion..

MULTI TCF!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Dink

M&A seems a possibility. It has been mentioned on other forums. 

Alex Neuling is a director for Eureka and company secretary for AUT. 

Graham Dowling is on both boards...

Not sure of the significance but it is a possibility... just speculation at this stage...


----------



## Logique

The price has had two bounces off 0.50 in the last six months, up to around 0.75 and back again, so the technical theory on a rise through 0.75 says 1.00 would be the minimum expectation in that event.


----------



## chance fate

...  a Merger might only save a bit of admin overhead then?  ... might be good for efficiency but would there be any shareholder benefit?? ...so shouldn't really affect the sp's if it is a merger....


----------



## barney

Broadside said:


> barney, if TCEI made a move like that it, it would be because Sugarloaf/kane was a no brainer winner, and if that were the case I couldn't see EKA or AUT entertaining the idea of getting taken out so close to the finishing line.  It would truly have to be an offer too good to refuse.  They may need more funds to develop, but that will be a good problem to have because it would mean success and they ought to be able to raise a lot of money at much higher prices than today...and not all at once, incrementally.  Hopefully the first few wells would fund the next few etc...can't build 100 wells all at once!
> 
> Well that's how I see it anyway.




I agree B/side, If my "left of field" scenario turns out correct, it would only prove that the whole play is a goer, and the price offered to the JV's would be substantial .......... After reading a bit more, I'm convinced the Trading Halts for both Co's will simply be related to capital raising for funding their increased "exposure" to the whole area.  

That being the case, it just confirms further that the whole play is being treated by all the parties as a definite goer,  and I for one cannot see any scenario that puts a negative slant on what is going on ........... All positive from my p.o.v. ................ Cheers all.


----------



## Agentm

barney said:


> I agree B/side, If my "left of field" scenario turns out correct, it would only prove that the whole play is a goer, and the price offered to the JV's would be substantial .......... After reading a bit more, I'm convinced the Trading Halts for both Co's will simply be related to capital raising for funding their increased "exposure" to the whole area.
> 
> That being the case, it just confirms further that the whole play is being treated by all the parties as a definite goer, and I for one cannot see any scenario that puts a negative slant on what is going on ........... All positive from my p.o.v. ................ Cheers all.





hey barney..

your reading it right.. 100% spot on..

keep doin those gigs and chill out (as usual) and enjoy the blue skies that ADI will give you..

if ever there was a time to hold.. right now is the time!!


----------



## chance fate

... barney, broady, yeah...agree with the logic...  whatever happens it's probably good news... mind you there's one depressing thing...  it's so easy to play with the sp on EKA...  the financier could have easily played around last week...  i seem to remember 347000 sell at 45c at one point??


----------



## Agentm

looking closer at the XTO wells only 6 miles to the north of kunde 3 and SL2,  its been quite a money spinner for them.

XTO is a top 10 gas producer in the USA, so no minnow. 

35 wells in all at the 11000 feet zone so far and a great producer over the past decade or more..


I tend to think the couch oil statement that their porosity is as low as 3% makes our location and fact we have oil a very exciting find for the jvp's:

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


little wonder the major oil companies were contesting the leases..

there are wells producing oil on the same depth only  a little way further into karnes county..  all the new permits and pre permits seem to be at the same depth in karnes..  and these wells are all going on production..

keep seeing only positive things in the immediate area around out 20,000 acres..


----------



## cicak_kupang

On Sunday I had a chance meet with a guy who works for a company that supplies drillers to the O&G sector.  This guy who I don’t remember his name as we chatted briefly for 5 min ( and in any case it doesn’t matter)  is currently working on the northwest shelf O&G  fields, in the Timor sea.   I thought it would be interesting to ask him if he had any idea how big a gas discovery would have to be before any of the big fish showed an interest. He was humming and erring a bit as to a number, so I suggested TCF and BCF as an answer.  He said TCF with out any second thoughts.
The significance of this answer to me is that ConicoPhillips is a big fish on the Sugarkane field, and wouldn’t be playing with a few BCF.  Sure Texas is a long way from the North West shelf, but this only adds to my certainty that ADI is on winner with SL, and we are indeed talking TCF size.
I have no reason to think this guy was pulling my leg.  I can’t prove the content of our chat, but what I’ve written is how it was. Just thought his answer was relevant for me in relation to ADI.


----------



## Broadside

thanks cicak that's an interesting anecdote because there is someone at another forum implying CP would be involved even if it was bcf and that any tcf talk is BS.


----------



## Agentm

broadside..

is that person an investor? or has that person got industry knowledge to back that up?

i cant see how major oil companies can make it and replace reserves chasing down tiny 50bcf plays?? they are constantly chasing multi tcf plays and developing them in order to survive.. 

seriously, i cant even imagine that the likes of CP would be in live oak and karnes for the number of years they have, in securing leases and developing this play unless they really had some large numbers staring at them...

XTO has got 35 wells on about 4 leases just 6 miles NE of us, and some wells have been producing for a lot longer than the average.. they have very low porosity,, half what we have.. and we have oil.. as they have just got their first "oil well" on their last well they put in karnes county a few months ago, just 5 miles or so north of SL1.. and still more vertical wells on the drill there right now..

this sugarkane field is a new discovery field.. tell the doubters to bring forward some data to prove its only 50 bcf!!


----------



## Broadside

I'm inclined to agree, just like a BHP doesn't waste time making p!ssant acquisitions or developing small projects.  I am just looking forward to some results that come from the horse's mouth not the neighbours.  You have done a fantastic job piecing together the puzzle but most of the market will wait until the JVPs themselves release their flow tests before they really take off (in my opinion).

The naysayer is a Japanese raw fish I believe you have on ignore, who has never been much of a fan of Sugarloaf.


----------



## Agentm

Broadside said:


> I'm inclined to agree, just like a BHP doesn't waste time making p!ssant acquisitions or developing small projects. I am just looking forward to some results that come from the horse's mouth not the neighbours. You have done a fantastic job piecing together the puzzle but most of the market will wait until the JVPs themselves release their flow tests before they really take off (in my opinion).
> 
> The naysayer is a Japanese raw fish I believe you have on ignore, who has never been much of a fan of Sugarloaf.




i watch the counties like a hawk,, 

EME announced the kunde 3 well spudded, they didnt even mention it was horizontal, and the well was not spudded when it announced, it was infact at 11500 feet.. 

i am not interested in whether the raw fish thinks he knows how a major oil company operates,, if i had any interest in his understandings and contributions, i would listen, but he is like a few others, very negative without having done any research, and never backs anything up with research or data.. i dont believe anything i hear, and most definately not from the people that have responsibilty for my holdings, i only research what ADI say, and then varify it.. and if it checks out i stay..  i judge their honesty and integrity by what i find out, and how much of what they say is true..

i know about announcements you will hear this week, some will stagger you,  its not because i have inside knowledge,, i just want to know whats going on.. so i find out by research.. 

one thing that is very interesting about this kunde 3 well is that they have got it very very advanced, and TCEI has the data from it to be confident enough to drill a horizontal just a mile or so away from it with SL2.. 

the testing of SL1 is now going ahead, and we are looking at a well with a proven play in it, and dont nessesarily think the sugarkane is the proven play..  thers more to it.. theres a lot more to this than meets the eye..

i purchased more adi today.. because of the research i have done up till now, and as a result of the research i did yesterday, and today..

there seems to be a lot of new oil wells in karnes county at 11000 feet!!


----------



## chance fate

cicak_kupang said:


> On Sunday I had a chance meet with a guy who works for a company that supplies drillers to the O&G sector.  This guy who I don’t remember his name as we chatted briefly for 5 min ( and in any case it doesn’t matter)  is currently working on the northwest shelf O&G  fields, in the Timor sea.   I thought it would be interesting to ask him if he had any idea how big a gas discovery would have to be before any of the big fish showed an interest. He was humming and erring a bit as to a number, so I suggested TCF and BCF as an answer.  He said TCF with out any second thoughts.
> The significance of this answer to me is that ConicoPhillips is a big fish on the Sugarkane field, and wouldn’t be playing with a few BCF.  Sure Texas is a long way from the North West shelf, but this only adds to my certainty that ADI is on winner with SL, and we are indeed talking TCF size.
> I have no reason to think this guy was pulling my leg.  I can’t prove the content of our chat, but what I’ve written is how it was. Just thought his answer was relevant for me in relation to ADI.





Just a comment...Offshore NWS you need multi Tcf fields (e.g. Pluto is about the smallest you can get away with to support an LNG train/underpinning contracts by itself at that distance)... to pay for infrastructure incl. LNG plant...which runs into billions of $'s...  onshore USA close to transport pipelines.. you can get away with Bcf's...  notwithstanding that CP's management time would be better spent on big fields which by association with this project would support the implication that's it's in the Tcf range...  imo...


----------



## highroller

Well, I've been sucked in and bought some on Friday.  Annoyed at myself for not getting them earlier.

Curious as to whether anyone here owned any shares in XEN when they were part of a JV drilling for deep gas in California.


----------



## fflintoff

This post on ADVFN in England might interest agentm:-

Safiande - 23 Jul'07 - 15:03 - 46887 of 46892  edit


JJF,
Re your earlier point on Couch & the Sugarkane wells.
I don ´t know whether he is in or not but he was aware of the Kunde # 1 well data in his 1 Sep 2006 newsletter ( see below re offset data ). Two weeks later he was on site & a week after that his son & a group of investors were also on site. Shortly after which we had all of the unexplained trading halts.
This provides even more evidence that SL & Kunde are on trend & demonstrates that the Sugarkane Gas project as referred to in the RNS is Kunde even though this is still doubted by some on this thread:-

“Sugar Loaf – Hosston
The Texas Railroad Commission requires the Carrizo fresh water sand be isolated with cement from the intervals above and below it. This interval was expected (from offset data – Kunde #1) to be from about 4700’ to 6000’, hence our plans to drill to 6,100’ and set casing. Upon logging, the Carrizo appears to be running 200 – 300’ deeper than anticipated. 

Our plans are now to drill to about 6,500’ before setting casing, in order to insure coverage of this interval. The alternative is to place a DV collar in the 9-5/8” casing to be run at 14,500’. That option is considered too risky for this well as it reduces the integrity of the 9-5/8”, which could be disastrous if it were to leak during our deep drilling operations. So we drilled to 6,500’ and set casing this morning.”

http://www.couchoil.com/daily/2006/0901.htm


----------



## Agentm

not sure about that flintoff.. i think the requirment to do this is standard for all wells in the region.. have to look into it one weekend..

now NT..

index oils press release announced an independent report on its operations, and a lot of mentions of NT.. this report is only just released now..

it appears in terms of exploration, for them its a significant prospect.. 

http://www.otclive.com/IXOG_Initiation_Report[TSC].pdf page 11, and remember its a 8% WI well for them..

these things are of interest



On September 10, 2006, the Company signed an agreement to participate in the New Taiton Project in Wharton County, TX.

The first well, _Ilse 1 _has been drilled and logged with completion results pending, targeting stacked Wilcox sands on trend with large nearby gas fields producing gas from the same Wilcox reservoirs. The prospect is defined by modern 3D seismic data. If _Ilse 1 _proves successful, the Company expects to participate in further wells to develop the potential of the New Taiton Project.

The Company has a 10% working interest before payout and an 8% working interest after payout in the New Taiton Project​ 

The first well, Ilse No. 1, will target stacked Wilcox sands; nearby gas fields have cumulative production in the 30 BCF range from the same reservoirs. There are at least 3 wells planned for the project in a successful scenario, based on the commerciality of the initial well. Drilling of Ilse 1 began in December 2006 targeting Middle Wilcox sands at approximately 17,000 feet. Ilse 1 has now been drilled and logged with completion results pending. This project is also in keeping with the Index’s strategy to participate in prospects with larger potential.​ 


The following 5 wells (including a low risk production well) are planned to be drilled, plus the prospective completion of Ilse 1 during the current fiscal year ending 31 March 2008:​ 


I see a very upbeat, bullish and optomistic view on the well is still there..​


After seeing this i cant see NT as being lost!! much more is happening there..​​



all imho and dyor​


----------



## HOMER J

EKA raising 3 million for sugarloaf:

Eureka is pleased to announce that it has agreed the placement of 9,375,000 shares at an issue price of $0.32 per share to raise $3,000,000, before the costs of the issue.
Funds raised from this issue will be applied towards the Sugarloaf project including drilling activities and for general working capital.

AUT raising 10.6 million

CAPITAL RAISING
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT) (“Company” or “Aurora”) is pleased to announce a capital raising to provide additional working capital for activities, including drilling, infrastructure, seismic and land acquisition, on the Company’s US oil & gas projects.
The capital raising consists of:
• A placement of 20 million shares at $0.53 per share to professional and sophisticated investors to raise $10.6 million before costs; and,
• A 1 for 10 non-renounceable rights issue at $0.53 per share

“The continued support of investors for our activities in the US is greatly appreciated. We are optimistic that the forthcoming period of activity will generate positive news flow and significant value for shareholders


Remedial cementation of the Sugarloaf-1 well has been completed without operational problems and tubing is presently being withdrawn in preparation for the fracture stimulation and test program.
The fracture stimulation of the Sugarloaf -1 well is presently expected to begin by mid August, subject to equipment availability.
The fracture stimulation of our North Belridge 26-2H well is also expected to start in mid August.
The drilling of our Sugarloaf-2 horizontal well is presently anticipated to commence towards the end of August.”


----------



## Broadside

Re Eureka: not happy Jan, they could have waited a month and placed at double these levels if all went well.  I know there is risk but they should be trying to avoid dilution to existing holders - and especially options holders Homer!


----------



## HOMER J

I know what you mean Broadside, but at least it isn't a huge share issue and its at 32c which should mean the price holds up fairly well. Im glad they are spending it on sugarloaf anyway.......


----------



## Agentm

*“The continued support of investors for our activities in the US is greatly appreciated. We are optimistic that the forthcoming period of activity will generate positive news flow and significant value for shareholders*


i am not sure if there is something they forgot to say here 


this is as big hint that you are going to get.. i thought it was worth reposting and highlighting..


----------



## Agentm

*9 may 2007 (75 days ago)*

Eureka is pleased to announce that it has agreed the placement of up to 7,875,000 shares at an issue price of $0.20 per share to raise up to $1,575,000, before the costs of the issue. 

In addition, the Company has agreed subject to shareholder approval to issue a further 2,125,000 shares at the same issue price to raise $425,000 before issue costs. A notice convening a general meeting of shareholders to consider this additional placement will be sent to shareholders in the near future. 
*Funds raised from these issues will be applied towards the Sugarloaf project and for general working capital *


*today*

Eureka is pleased to announce that it has agreed the placement of 9,375,000 shares at an issue price of $0.32 per share to raise $3,000,000, before the costs of the issue. 
*Funds raised from this issue will be applied towards the Sugarloaf project including drilling activities and for general working capital. *


*11 july 2007*

A suitable rig has been identified and subject to Joint Venture approval and execution of relevant documentation, is expected on location about the end of August. *Eureka’s 12.5% share of dry hole costs* are approximately *US$450,00*0 based on a gross estimated dry hole cost of US$3.6 million for this well. Total well *completion costs* are estimated at US$1.65 million (Eureka share *US$207,000*). 

so i think its time to add things up..

the 1.5 mill should have covered SL1 and SL2 with about $800,000 left for at least another well.. 
the 3 mill will give them enough for about 5 more horizontals.. and with the other cash they have enough for say 6 horizontals..

now the money EKA is raising is specifically for Sugarloaf..

i would say sugarkane must becoming one heck of a project.


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> *9 may 2007 (75 days ago)*
> 
> Eureka is pleased to announce that it has agreed the placement of up to 7,875,000 shares at an issue price of $0.20 per share to raise up to $1,575,000, before the costs of the issue.
> 
> In addition, the Company has agreed subject to shareholder approval to issue a further 2,125,000 shares at the same issue price to raise $425,000 before issue costs. A notice convening a general meeting of shareholders to consider this additional placement will be sent to shareholders in the near future.
> *Funds raised from these issues will be applied towards the Sugarloaf project and for general working capital *
> 
> 
> *today*
> 
> Eureka is pleased to announce that it has agreed the placement of 9,375,000 shares at an issue price of $0.32 per share to raise $3,000,000, before the costs of the issue.
> *Funds raised from this issue will be applied towards the Sugarloaf project including drilling activities and for general working capital. *
> 
> 
> *11 july 2007*
> 
> A suitable rig has been identified and subject to Joint Venture approval and execution of relevant documentation, is expected on location about the end of August. *Eureka’s 12.5% share of dry hole costs* are approximately *US$450,00*0 based on a gross estimated dry hole cost of US$3.6 million for this well. Total well *completion costs* are estimated at US$1.65 million (Eureka share *US$207,000*).
> 
> so i think its time to add things up..
> 
> the 1.5 mill should have covered SL1 and SL2 with about $800,000 left for at least another well..
> the 3 mill will give them enough for about 5 more horizontals.. and with the other cash they have enough for say 6 horizontals..
> 
> now the money EKA is raising is specifically for Sugarloaf..
> 
> i would say sugarkane must becoming one heck of a project.




….and Pioneer is splashing out millions for three more horizontal wells at the giant Pawnee field right next door to SL/SK

“Oil and Gas Report: 07.24.07

BEE COUNTY
Pioneer Natural Resources USA of Irving has filed for permits to drill three more 17,000-foot horizontal wells in the Pawnee (Edwards) field. The No. 9 Tomasek Gas Unit will be 12.1 miles northwest of Tuleta in the BS&F Survey A-128. The No. 4 Mansker Ranch Gas Unit and the No. 3 Winnie Madge Going Gas Unit will be drilled 9.1 and 8.5 miles northwest of Pettus in the R. B. Marcy Survey A-127.”

http://www.caller.com/news/2007/jul/24/oilgas/


----------



## Agentm

*Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Ilse-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%​*The Ilse-1 well remains shut-in pending a formal recommendation from the operator. A joint venture meeting was held on 18 July 2007, attended by the working interest participants, and the operator agreed to supply estimated costs for the testing of three secondary sandstone
intervals. After receipt of formal cost estimates and AFE documents (authorisation for expenditures) the joint venture will collectively decide the forward program.


after the US partner puts out some news on NT, we see that they have come to an agreement..

great news at NT..​


----------



## chance fate

this looks encouraging... from eme on lse today...  eme sp seems to be reflecting overall market sentiment on oil price:

RNS Number:8123A
Empyrean Energy PLC
25 July 2007




                              Empyrean Energy PLC

                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

• TCEI JV Block A # 1 well update

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A
#1 well, the first well to be drilled as part of the recently announced 16
well deal, continues to drill ahead having drilled to date approximately
1500 feet of the planned 4000 feet horizontal drainhole in the Cretaceous 
Carbonate.

The well has encountered encouraging gas shows in addition to fluorescence
in the cuttings. Multiple gas flares measuring between 10-40 feet have been
reported during the circulation of bottoms up accumulations as the mud
weight has had to be substantially increased.

The well is planned to be drilled 4000 feet horizontally (about 15500 feet 
measured depth) after which appraisal and analysis of the hydrocarbon shows
encountered during drilling will be carried out. Although encouraging, no
conclusions should be drawn from these gas shows, fluorescence and flares
until the drilling is completed and testing operations have been conducted.
Further updates will be provided as relevant information comes to hand.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

For further information:
Charlie Geller/ Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6604/
+44 (0) (797) 006 7320

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel: +44(0) 207 182 1746


----------



## resourceboom

"Fluorescence can be an indication of crude oil staining, or of the presence of fluorescent minerals"
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formation_evaluation

I hope and expect it to be an indication of the former!!


----------



## sandlion

I put this on over at HC...

Fluorescence is a nice indicator (the tail gas is an obvious plus). It shows the distinct presence of hydrocarbons in the tailings/cuttings, it is a strong show for aromatic ring (benzene type) hydrocarbons and shows that the carbon loading is up in the C6 areas at least....OIL!

great minds think alike....fools don't buy ADI


----------



## Lachlan6

For me its a watch and wait situation for (ADI), still consolidating in a wide range (not my preferred type of range but so be it). Needs to break to the upside of $0.78/80 before I even consider an entry. Has however broken downtrend line and MACD is showing nice divergence.


----------



## Agentm

sandlion said:


> I put this on over at HC...
> 
> Fluorescence is a nice indicator (the tail gas is an obvious plus). It shows the distinct presence of hydrocarbons in the tailings/cuttings, it is a strong show for aromatic ring (benzene type) hydrocarbons and shows that the carbon loading is up in the C6 areas at least....OIL!
> 
> great minds think alike....fools don't buy ADI





i was liking that part too..  but it can mean other things equally..

pity mr couch isnt on this well!!  no wirelines...


----------



## fflintoff

Most certainly could refer to "wet gas " i.e. propane & butane et al but Kunde#1 has been producing oil since last year so a good chance that it is texas tea here also?


----------



## Agentm

Submitted 07/25/2007 643211 TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. (845062) KENNEDY 1H 02 KARNES Horizontal New Drill - 12300


thank you sniffer!!

i see i was not entirely accurate on the location of SL2

up until now i was under the impression it was inbetween SL1 and kunde 3,, based on the only TCEI pre permit i could find, and it was on the taylor lease 2 miles or so west of K3... 

the Sugarloaf 2 well 1.6 mile or so east of the SL1 well on the o'donovan lease

this then makes the SL2 well an untested well with a 5000 foot horizontal going in on the sugarkane play...

this is indeed bullish..


----------



## Agentm

just to fill you in..

i had 1 of 2 pre permit leases about a mile west of SL1 as the location of the possible next sl2 well.. they have now a permit to drill 1.5 miles east of SL1

that leaves one TCEI pre permit nearby kunde 3 and a conocophillips pre permit on the leases in live oak unanswered for me


----------



## Agentm

this is what it looks like when they get serious.. 

xto field,, verticals and horizontals.. try counting them,, well over 150

we have 10 times the acreage and twice the POROSITY!!!






0..


----------



## chance fate

...thanks for the maps AgentM... XTO's looks like the way they'd have drilled an oil field i.e. drill the cr@p out of it... are you saying the one in the map is a gas field?


----------



## Agentm

maybe its not clear enough...

try this.. anyone getting it yet???


----------



## chance fate

interesting...  looks almost like XTO's gas may be an oil/condensate by product rather than the main deal.... could be we have more oil ...  and if so SL2 being an appraisal could be followed by infill drilling...  but imo doesn't gel yet with the forward drilling program and recent eka and aut cap raising which would cover only a handful of wells... unless the rest would be covered by revenues from these...can't tell from here....  reckon quoting field sizes in Tcf if a misleading - the way adi seem to be doing it is to convert oil/condy on a gas energy equivalent basis from bbls to scf...  so could be more an oil field than a gas field (the way i read it 'til now)...


----------



## Agentm

you know.. i dont think these guys could raise the capital..

this field will be way too big for them.. lets just get the wells in and watch the offers come...

they are using extremely powerful rigs to control the gas kicks at kunde, 40 foot gas flares... they had the same problem with SL1.. massive mud weights.. its not hard to lose a well or two on the sugarkane it seems..  

did i mention they didnt have a permit to go to 21,000 feet at SL1 until after they wirelined the sugarkane and could safely prepare the well to be able to drill to that depth??? 

you will never see prices like this again.. imho the next announcements are exactly as AUT had suggested:

*forthcoming period of activity will generate positive news flow andsignificant valuefor shareholders


*
i wonder what significant means!!!  double? triple?


----------



## Broadside

it will be interesting to see how this plays out, all the companies are relative minnows and if it is as big as we hope and expect, that is a massive development program.  If it is incremental then capital can be managed as each well funds the next, but I imagine the best way is to proceed with all haste possible....so they'll need help from big brother or else be placing a lot of stock at what will need to be much much higher prices.  There has to be the prospect of one or more of the partners getting taken out if this proves up, don't you think?

If we have oil, which confirms Couch's opinion, how does this reconcile with continuous disclosure obligations to ASX?  Perhaps without flow testing they have no such duty.  

thanks for posting the maps AgentM, the amount of wells nearby puts things in perspective and adds a lot of cred to Couch's early assessment.


----------



## Agentm

no problems..

just remember all those wells on the map you see are all commercial,, 100% strike rate.. you see in texas you dont drill like that until you have the whole show set up.. conocophillips is testing and developing the western regions of Sugarkane,, we will do the east.. and do it well with TCEI..

plenty more to come.. i can do leases but wont until i see the green light.. AUT and EME have hinted at acreages still on the go.. until they have it signed and sealed i wont be posting anything.. 

somehow i think some news is on the way when look at the recent leases listed.. hard to know.. but its looking good out there on the sugarkane field..

I can see why there has been such a long period of absinance on the drill.. these acreages have some amazing histories behind them.. up until a few days ago i thought there was only one major involved.. now i see a lot more things that really need more looking into.. but i can understand from the things i see why we are on the project.. something i could never understand and always bugged me.. 

If i put the same drilling map up, and show you what it looks like south of our acreages, and these maps only show wells at 9500 to 13000 feet like the one you are seeing above.. you can see some trends and patterms that make it obvious this sugarkane feild has been on ice for some time..

15 years couch said..


----------



## Agentm

the higher you go the better you see the trends...

again these are only wells at our depth range.. no shallow or deep deep wels.. 9500 - 13000


does it make it any clearer???


----------



## resourceboom

AgentM, I like your kunde 3 - 40 foot flare, not to scale on the diagram.
Good one, very funny !!


----------



## chance fate

Agentm said:


> the higher you go the better you see the trends...
> 
> again these are only wells at our depth range.. no shallow or deep deep wels.. 9500 - 13000
> 
> 
> does it make it any clearer???




If you compare this to the diagram in adi's 2006 annual report page 5...  the field to the NW looks like the gas/oil field in the edwards formation, the one to the south east looks like the gas in the edwards too...  the North East-South West direction of Kunde SL1 SL2 looks to correspond to the general elongated oval NE/SW shape of the fields in the area...  so looks like drilling corresponds to the local trends....  hope there's gas and oil there!!!!


----------



## resourceboom

Flare between 10 and 40 ft sounds very similar to BUR'S austin chalks horizontal well in Burleson county.  Their well is now on production, and flows now at 4.2MMCFD plus condensate......

so they might expect the same at Kunde 3 (even though ADI has no interest in K3 it is expected to be in the same SK play)
edit: BUR well has dual laterals though!

see
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070613/pdf/00729294.pdf
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070723/pdf/00740961.pdf

"Drilling lateral well bore in Austin Chalk reservoir at 14,264
feet measured depth. Approximately 3,230 feet of the planned
lateral of 5,335 feet has been drilled in the Austin Chalk
reservoir. While drilling this section it has been necessary to
burn off gas which has entered the well bore so there has been
a continuous gas flare that has varied between 10 feet and 40
feet in height." 

"Following a clean up period which involved expelling drilling fluids and mud, the well is currently
(20-July-2007) flowing at a rate of 4.2 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) with 60 barrels of
condensate per day. This is through a 28/64 inch choke with a well head pressure of 1300 psig."


----------



## vpayne

re chance fate

dont get too excited as the agents s1 & s2 red dots should be about 1 centimeter to the south east which is off trend but could indicate width of field


----------



## Agentm

vpayne said:


> re chance fate
> 
> dont get too excited as the agents s1 & s2 red dots should be about 1 centimeter to the south east which is off trend but could indicate width of field





absolutely correct .. but the dots dont follow the trend of all plays.. our line is off from the way other fields are spread.. think on that..


the fact we have the sugarkane in SL1 doesnt mean its over 20,000 acres.. depends on how much research you do on the background of sugarkane will give you the answers.. i know i have a lot of them them!!!

but this area has had extensive 2d's and 3d's. and all acreages were hotly contested..

the more i look at who had the leases before, how long the play has been researched, secret wells.. all bodes well for a outcome that i hold for..

absolutely DYOR.. 

as i said before.. the major oil companies knew what i know.. and some more,,, and what i know i wont post on the BB's until the jvp's do.. but i can assure you i know the play extends east.. its something i picked up on, checked out and confirmed..


so if the majors saw it,, i saw it,, then that explains the madnness of the bidding for the acreages and reason why they wont test SL1... as the tets would be recorded in the RRC and then everyone would have known how far the play went.. so SL1 cant be tested until the acreages are signed..

signing acreages doesnt prove plays.. but when majors are bidding,, you know its for real!!

best of luck...

interesting your first post is on this thread.. welcome!!


----------



## Agentm

this is why it may be wider than the xto field as well as having double their porosity!


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks for all your informative posts agentm.  I took a modest position in ADI a couple of weeks back on the recommendation that one of the major brokers
'was confident' that adi were on to something big in Texas.

I have been following this forum ever since with great interest.  Do you think the current market correction will have a negative impact on the upside here?  

Eva


----------



## resourceboom

Thanks for all the piccies AgentM. Good to have the google earth piccies too, even though when I asked previously you said they wouldn't be useful  ...post 1161


----------



## Agentm

hey eva..

if major broker is recommending the share on the thinking adi are onto something big.. then maybe we may see some action soon.. buyers better get in fast.. kunde 3 is a lot further along than what eme is letting on..

i hear quite a few larger buyers are on the sidelines,, one came in the other day as we had 1 million shares traded on that day.., so 50% there i guess for that one.. but smaller holders are getting the jump here realizing the sugarkane is not worth anything like .70..   hold if you thinking of selling,,  news is coming.. AUT just told their holders in no uncertain terms.. 

i cant predict markets that well on corrections..  this share has it own path i think.. guided by the understandings that people are getting and the ones like me that have dug a little further see a history.. a long history.. and boy oh boy are there ever some big names on these acreages!!  and some amazing activity that no one out there is aware of..

how confident am i???  i see nothing out there thats telling me that the sugarkane is a tiny 50bcf play.. nothing at all.. if it was i would be out by now.. i know of a few companies about to double.. i would be on them and long gone ages ago if this was 50bcf..

do i see 150bcf???   not possible,, you dont put 15 years of planning, have conocophillips drill 2 test wells, have secret wells, drill 2 horizontals, put a well on ice, thats SL1,  which is in such a pivotal (central) position in the overall scheme of things... this is not done for 150 bcf..

but put it this way..  if the jvp's dont start declaring their hand real soon, 
i am not going to sit around and not release my observations.. the average investor may know about SL1, SL2,  Kunde 1 and Kunde 3.. (called mumbo jumbo block A well by EME)  but thats only a part of whats happened..

but if thats what people want to believe then so be it..  i dont believe anything i read out there,, what they write on their reports are passages passed by legal teams to pass the asx listing regulations..  you cant say too much or your inflating the picture, so you say sweet little of nothing and get by that way.. (which is 100 times what TCEI wanted to be out there). the well logs out there tell me a different picture, the one couch oil says..

NT, for example, is supposed to be a 50 or 80 bcf play,, you not seeing 15 years of planning,, secret wells, major oil companies like conocophillips all over it!!  

i am going to get absolutely chastised and ridiculed for this i know.. 

2tcf is what couch oil says we have.. i back him 100%,, i am in for that as a minimum.. thats me, my choice and my research... please dyor AND all IMHO... OK!!!!


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks agentm.  It is my feeling too that if adi is sitting on such a large discovery then it will be bluesky no matter what the market at large is doing.  My understanding was that the recommendation I heard was more or less on the qt.  I thought perhaps it was just one of those rumours you hear - ramping up a stock, but when I read your posts I was more intrigued - you have obviously put in a lot of yards and have held for a long time.

It does puzzle me that if the brokers think adi is so big, why has there not been more action?   Perhaps waiting for the correction to pick them up cheaper before September?

Eva


----------



## Agentm

when couch started posting 100 wells, i was fairly suspicious, and the more i wanted to discount his statement, the more i found to support it..

to this day i have not found anything that puts his claim of oil, and his 100 wells for oil as incorrect. i look at the XTO field 6 miles noth east,, with half the porosity, and theres over 100 there on about a tenth of the acreage..

now we have a second well called SL2 going horizontal at the play and not having tested SL1??   whats that about..?? there must be enough in the wirelines and enough in the 3d's to get the JVP's onto the next well in a very smart fashion.. very bullish..  and not how ADI/ARQ normally operate..

some jvp's are capital raising after having allready done so in may 07.. and we see they have enough cash for many wells to commence.. very very bullish, and all after kunde 3 was tested..

it seems absolutely obvious to me that the massive gas kicks on the sugarkane play was enough to see them plan more wells without testing anything at SL1..  this has to mean the same sugarkane play at kunde 3 is being targeted at SL2.. 

After drilling through the sugarkane, and wireline testing SL1 last september, the debate to go on must have been intense.. imagine risking losing a well like SL1 was to drill ahead at a very high risk play like the sands in comparison.. none the less, late sept 2006, they put in a permit to drill to 21,000 feet, and got potentially a nice play there, just not commercial flow.. and EME has hinted at further long term looks at the sands.. 

Sugarkane is genuine, and significant, and in no way is it 150bcf, for the amount of miles this play extends, 20,000 acres just for the eastern section. this playis exactly what couchy was quoted by the CP and TCEI camp.. 2tcf as a real eventuality.. he told his investors, we saw it, the jvp's got very nervuos as acreages were not signed, the couch website was shut down..

the thing thats holding the money on the jvp's is cold hard data.. once the SL1 test results come in then there is no holding back,, until then,, they will wait,, thats my view..

if your selling ADI in the next few weeks think real hard about it.. some major news is about to break, and the jvp's seem to be prepared to start revealing some details in the very near term.. hold long and hang on i think is the way to go with the jvp's..  

in the near term i feel the shares will be sought by smaller investors who are prepared to put forward some cash at a slightly higher risk threashold, and they i feel will make the biggest gains..


----------



## Agentm

i heard on HC that there are no secret wells.. 

i posted a reply and the UK guys who watch HC found it in 5 minutes..

interesting,,  i think the whole sugarkane field is very interesting, i have done a lot of research, as no doubt a few others have..

I can say the study i saw done by mr campbell fell far short in my view. absolutely no research on the play, no mention of the XTO field 6 miles north at the same horizon.. 150+ wells there..

as we all know thre are no secret wells and we all know the name of the well TCEI drilled in 2002..  and i guess my research must be flawed

I see some jvp's have mentioned the well, no one has picked up on it.. 

as far as i am concerned its part and parcel of the sugarkane exploration..


----------



## Agentm

as its being discussed in other forums,, 

i look at the adi announcement saying the sugarkane find at kunde 1 is the same as the ones in SL1..

looking geographically, the trend of plays are usually on the path of the arrows.. fields south and north at the same depths are folowing this trend..

this may explain why sugarkane could be potentially enormous.. if it trends south as well as east west the field(s) becomes mindblowing in potential..

maybe you can see why i hold this share right now.. ADI say they have the eastern part of sugarkane. 

how big is this???


----------



## jackohelp

agentm> did you notice kellner gas unit#6, XTO is incorrectly identified as 11.5 miles SW of Campbellton on the permit but when you look at the tif file it is just over the Atacosa/Karnes border which of course is NE of Campbellton.!


----------



## resourceboom

Hi Jacko, welcome to ASF with your first post above.......
If you look to the top of your screen, you should have 1 private message outstanding !!


----------



## Agentm

resourceboom..

"TCEI had previously drilled a well in this area which encountered gas shows in the Edwards Formation and the shallower Cretaceous carbonate formation"

you posted this in the HC forum and no real response..

this forum sees little response to the 2002 well also..

If AUt say the well, which was drilled vertical, then redrilled again offset, has got shows in the upper cretaceous.

in live oak, at the other end of the same edwards trend pogue is on, poineer has just put in gas well completion


----------



## Agentm

ALL GOOD NEWS.. 

So here is what i can figure.. as it just doesnt make sense..

i have been going over these reports for weeks, the sugarkane report, and the sugarloaf 1 report.. they are basically repeats of old data with subtle differences here and there.. 

when i pull up the well reports for Kunde 1, and compare kunde 1, and all its well data to SL1.. i see the same thing they do,, i see sugarkane at the same levels.. but theres more,, we have shows further down..

"For engineering reasons the *deepest zone will be tested first*. Should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the *zone* would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance."


now the deepest zone (edwards) is counted in the on our well of the three still remaining is the edwards isnt it? the upper two zones are sugarkane


this is where it doesnt make sense.. 11550 feet for SL2 is way short of the third shows in SL1... that to me says SL2 is drilling ahead only for the sugarkane!! 

SL1 has to have multiple plays... we have edwards and sugarkane

these guys may be getting clever!!

so they are testing the edwards, and doing long term testing on the edwards play at SL1 next.. (refer couch oil logs 12400 - 13100) which matches productive zones both 6 miles north (XTO) and also to the south, enduring, pioneer etc. 

at the same time they drill away with SL2 at the sugarkane horizontally.. max depth only 11,550 feet. this is done because they already know from the wirelines and the kunde 3 well that the horizontal into sugarkane will be very successful..



Although the upper zone of possible pay in the Sugarloaf-1 well has not yet been flow tested, evidence from wire-line logs, gas log and regional seismic interpretation suggests the *upper zone in Sugarloaf-1 is likely to be within the Sugarkane Field.*

I am thinking 2 plays here,, edwards and suagrkane...

Each time they say something, its never too clear, but when you lok at drilling depths and logs it doesnt match up,, i could be barking up the wrong tree,, but i cant see anything else but 2 plays tight now..

So are the 100 wells for oil the sugarkane or the edwards??? at kunde 1 they produce oil. so if couchy is right, 100 horizontal wells!! thats frightening!! 

All imho and dyor.. 



Nice news on the other fronts,,

Yemen coming on..

Indonesia starting...

JVP with Sun resources!! NICE!!

plenty of value​


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> ALL GOOD NEWS..
> 
> So here is what i can figure.. as it just doesnt make sense..
> 
> i have been going over these reports for weeks, the sugarkane report, and the sugarloaf 1 report.. they are basically repeats of old data with subtle differences here and there..
> 
> when i pull up the well reports for Kunde 1, and compare kunde 1, and all its well data to SL1.. i see the same thing they do,, i see sugarkane at the same levels.. but theres more,, we have shows further down..
> 
> "For engineering reasons the *deepest zone will be tested first*. Should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the *zone* would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance."
> 
> 
> now the deepest zone (edwards) is counted in the on our well of the three still remaining is the edwards isnt it? the upper two zones are sugarkane
> 
> 
> this is where it doesnt make sense.. 11550 feet for SL2 is way short of the third shows in SL1... that to me says SL2 is drilling ahead only for the sugarkane!!
> 
> SL1 has to have multiple plays... we have edwards and sugarkane
> 
> these guys may be getting clever!!
> 
> so they are testing the edwards, and doing long term testing on the edwards play at SL1 next.. (refer couch oil logs 12400 - 13100) which matches productive zones both 6 miles north (XTO) and also to the south, enduring, pioneer etc.
> 
> at the same time they drill away with SL2 at the sugarkane horizontally.. max depth only 11,550 feet. this is done because they already know from the wirelines and the kunde 3 well that the horizontal into sugarkane will be very successful..
> 
> 
> 
> Although the upper zone of possible pay in the Sugarloaf-1 well has not yet been flow tested, evidence from wire-line logs, gas log and regional seismic interpretation suggests the *upper zone in Sugarloaf-1 is likely to be within the Sugarkane Field.*
> 
> I am thinking 2 plays here,, edwards and suagrkane...
> 
> Each time they say something, its never too clear, but when you lok at drilling depths and logs it doesnt match up,, i could be barking up the wrong tree,, but i cant see anything else but 2 plays tight now..
> 
> So are the 100 wells for oil the sugarkane or the edwards??? at kunde 1 they produce oil. so if couchy is right, 100 horizontal wells!! thats frightening!!
> 
> All imho and dyor..
> 
> 
> 
> Nice news on the other fronts,,
> 
> Yemen coming on..
> 
> Indonesia starting...
> 
> JVP with Sun resources!! NICE!!
> 
> plenty of value​





Howdy Agent, and thanks for your continued delving into the possible scenarios .................. I could be way off track here, and will be happy to be so, but, I just get the feeling that the above referenced initial testing of the lower zone for "engineering reasons", is/will be a "stalling" tactic, (for "whatever" reason ............. I have no idea exactly what the reason is, other than there seems to be a lot of stalling going on to this point) ............... Don't get me wrong ......... I think this is all part of the long term plan ............ I think they are still stalling for time ............. why ............ I don't know, .......... but whatever the reasons are, they remain the SAME reasons for the stalling to date  ............  ie.  There are obviously some big plays going on here, and we punters are only guessing until the final washup is divulged ............... My guess is that the low zones will be "initially" non-commercial, and that may well be the last opportunity for "investors" to get ADI shares at a discount ............... I believe all the action will be up "higher" in the well/future wells, and for whatever reasons they need to stall the results, all will become clear in time ............... I hope I'm right because I'll be buying more if the "news" in the lower sections causes a drop in the sp ........................ 

I agree with you Agent, this is shaping up to be very big ................ Stalling the testing of the well ............. Buying up land rights b4 testing  ............ Other JV partners buying up land/doing private deals .............. Announcing a second well prior to testing the first    ..................  These guys obviously have a great idea of what they are on to ............... You don't do all these things "out of order"  unless you are pretty confident ............... Lets imagine the absolute worst case scenario (unlikely to the n'th degree imo) ............... Both SL1 and SL2 fail !!!!!  .............. Imo, even if this happens, it is just a matter of time b4 the payload is "tapped" into ............. so long term holders will eventually be rewarded ................... Best case scenario ????????  .................. I have a personal story to tell in relation to Sugarloaf, but can't tell it until the story unfolds and proves my experience to be true ................. I'm looking forward to telling that story, and hope it will be sooner rather than later ............. No insider knowledge or anything like that (I'm not trying to sway anybody either way ..... not my style..), but some interesting events transpired nevertheless ............ Good luck to all the long term punters ............


----------



## chance fate

...barney...just a comment ... bottom up testing is quite normal...  it's easier to isolate perforated zones so you can focus on the zone of interest going up the well than going down the well (you'd have to install some sort of packer and tubing going down - whereas you can simply install a temporary plug on the way up...)...


----------



## Agentm

i was just researching all the logs on SL1

i will post them or maybe jacko can we only need the first three..

you will see the 11500 play thats sugarkane.. but there are more plays..

one higher and two lower


the edwards one (13000 feet0 corresponds with pogue and with XTO wells 6 miles norh and the other wells south of us..

the next one up, is huge, and is not being intercepted by the SL2 horizontal.. 

I think we have one proven play, thats may well be the edwards, and then sugarkane to be tested by SL2, and theres one more..

this is very exciting stuff,, i was not getting what the reports from the last weeks were saying,, now i get it a lot more,, this is a major find alright..

keep on buyin them!!!!!!!!!


----------



## barney

chance fate said:


> ...barney...just a comment ... bottom up testing is quite normal...  it's easier to isolate perforated zones so you can focus on the zone of interest going up the well than going down the well (you'd have to install some sort of packer and tubing going down - whereas you can simply install a temporary plug on the way up...)...




Hi C/F,  I understand that is the way to test, and hope my last post was not misconstrued........  

I just get the impression the lower zones will be tested to "follow procedure", as was the case with the previous low zones ............... I have to stress, I'm just "talking out of my hat" here, so no one should take too much notice .............. I am a long term investor with ADI now and no doubt like yourself, believe there is possibly a great story unfolding here .............. In no way was I trying to downplay the situation ......... to the contrary ................. I think the final washup with sugarloaf etc. will be a great result for all "believers" .......... I certainly won't be selling even if the lower zones are  "less" than some might expect ................ To me that might represent a "final" buying opportunity if you get my drift   ................  Thats what I was kind of saying in a round about fashion ......... Its been a long day    Cheers.......


----------



## chance fate

barney... between the lines seems what you're saying is... don't worry if the lower intervals don't come thru'...  i'm certainly in that camp... so anyone who wants to trade on what could be interpreted as bad news... good luck....but you're not getting my shares....


----------



## barney

chance fate said:


> barney... between the lines seems what you're saying is... don't worry if the lower intervals don't come thru'...  i'm certainly in that camp... so anyone who wants to trade on what could be interpreted as bad news... good luck....but you're not getting my shares....




100% with you on that one C/F, .......... I won't be selling mine either ..........There's been some patience required to this point of course ............  Good "story" developing on this one I think ............... 

PS Well done Agent on showing some "ASF class" on an alternative forum where one or two of the "natives" are a little less than friendly:twak: ......


----------



## Agentm

this was posted last year by ed.. uk forum..

*Edgein, circa Sep 2006*
Did you read the information that I posted on the C1-C4 ratios. 
You also notice that the gas ppm are at times over 2.8% V/V for C1 
alone and ranging in *gas units of between 500 to over 1000 from a *
*background reading of zero*, the standard through hundreds of feet is 
at least 62units with one particular section showing c1-c4 increasing 
considerably over background as reported in the information by Saf 
and also the RNS by EME and partners. *It is clear* that once they pass 
through the shale and siltsone section into *the upper reservoir* as 
reported in the logs as "show #1" there is a *significant set of peaks* 
corresponding with the section that would represent the upper reservoir. 
Siltstone and shale are common seal type lithology, Chalk is a common 
reservoir type especially for gas traps. It is my view that these peaks 
and the words "show #1" are an indication that a gas section has been entered. 
It is quite possible that you wouldn't see that as a good result, but then again I'm a holder and you most likely are not. Good gas shows doesn't 
automatically mean its going to be a commercial well, but its a good start. 
Some wells have significantly strong gas shows and are unable to sustain 
high flow rates due to reservoir characteristics. Some wells with lesser gas shows may have ideal reservoir characteristics and sustain flow very 
commercially over a long period. *As stated the gas ratios are within a "potentially" commercial range.*


Some very useful information provided by Saf over the weekend again, 
there is one particular section of interest that has *C1-C4 shows and *
*the ratios are in the region of 30 (apparently good and within a potentially commercial range).*

There is a vast amount of info in the logs. I've never seen so much 
information revealed from a well while its in the process of drilling. 
The DTI site provides logs of UK wells after the well has been drilled, 
but not for some time afterwards, and not in such detail.

I'm kinda reading the logs in that the spikes are interesting sections 
and leaving anything that is below about 62u as backgound, although it 
seems to be essentially be a gas show. The report based on wirelining could be very interesting indeed, restivity logs coupled with the mud logs (gas shows and lithology). As saf has suggested there is suitable lithology throughout these shows (chalk, limestone and some sandstone early on, mainly chalk and limestone though).

Max readings so far seem to br just in *excess of 1000u.*

*The ratios of C1 vs C2 and C1 vs C3 are important* in determining the type and potential commerciality of the gas find it seems. Its not guaranteed as a flowing well until tested, some wells with gas units do not sustain long term flow. We have the initial signs of a potentially commercial well with the increases in C1-C4, gas unit spikes over a significant reservoir section of limestone and chalk and a high ppm especially in methane. 
There are certainly hydrocarbons present during drilling so far. We'll know more from the wirelining, and we'll not know the end result until fully tested. As everyone else, fingers are crossed for the end result.



The sugarloaf gas ratios can be determined over some of the sections 
by the information provided by Safiande and mpls. 
We discussed this on Saturaday and *the ratios from Sugar were between 19 and 31 for the gas samples returned.*

Reply from Saf, my bold emphasis:
"Peak gas reading in the secondary were 1000 but in the primary, Hosston, there were only 536.

It was known that one of the partners wanted just to test the secondary"


...................................................................................................


this post was done by someone i hold in high esteeem, and pre wireline.

Since the wirelines were done the JVP's have planned SL2 and Kunde 3. both wells are planned in away to not impede on failure and repeat mistakes, kunde 3 went first for the sugarkane, and was drilled vertically to 11700 then tested, then drilled horizontally.. this was done some weeks ago, and once the testing was completed, it gave them enough confidence to go ahead with the sugarkane aspect on our leases and put the infill well out to the east. the announcement soon followed..

SL1 i appears not to interested in extensively testing the sugarkane currently, i think the other two zones are being tested to guage which way to go on them.

I back TCEI and conocophilips on the sugarkane development, i think they would not have gone ahead with SL2 unless some real confidence could be got from the kunde 3 horizontal tests..

on the broader horizon.. Yemen looks closer, and indonesia..

I see the other jvp's have little on the map other than sugar... ADI is doing the hard yards and going forward onto some future projects..

All very good, and still very much on the upside as i see the news..

exciting weeks and days ahead..

DYOR and all IMHO


----------



## Agentm

not much interest here on ADI anymore..

though i may just repost this.. just my thoughts on sugarloaf/sugarkane..

well heres my theory.. its staring us all in the face but i think i understand the plan at sugarloaf

kunde 1, is a test well, which was twinned with kunde 2

kunde 2 was lost.. Kunde 1 maybe damaged, is producing gas and oil. (i know which levels)

Kunde 3 horizontal.. 12200 feet. 

Sugarloaf 2 horizontal 11500 feet.

so why two wells?? two different depths..??

Sugarkane has two plays:

"The first of the three identified zones is expected to be tested during the first half of August."

"the Sugarloaf joint venture has now also approved the drilling of a horizontal well to target the same Cretaceous age carbonate *zone *that is producing from the nearby Sugarkane Field"

key word... "ZONE"

the two sugarkane zones are clearly seen in the couch logs for SL1.. one is at 11500, and the other at the 12000 region.. we are testing the upper one!!

We are drilling and targeting the upper Sugarkane zone with SL2 - 11550 feet horizontal

The TCEI Conocophillips team are targeting and drilling the lower Sugarkane zone - 12200 feet horizontal.

The Kunde 3 well was at 11700 feet last month before it went horizontal. (clearly past the first sugarkane zone.) 

the third play is the edwards.. to be tested by the SL1 well.

We have both zones in our well!!!!

So they will be drilling for 3 targets, with 2 targets having to be drilled horizontal, and seperately

the edwards, play 3 - vertical.

so the 100 wells for the oil.. (sugarkane), that be 50 wells upper 50 wells lower sugarkane perhaps?

then there is still the edwards!!

can SL1 be converted to drill horizontal into the lower 12200 sugarkane zone just as kunde 3 is? 

just a thought? delays there???? more delays?? delayed again and again... more delays...


----------



## HOMER J

both ADI and EKA up nicely today. wonder if something is coming or this is on the back of yesterdays updates......

A close above 76c on ADI sometime soon could triger some nice buying imo.


----------



## Lucky_Country

AgentM plenty of intrest here just that your post are so full of info its hard too put anything up that is of note in comparrison


----------



## barney

Lucky_Country said:


> AgentM plenty of intrest here just that your post are so full of info its hard too put anything up that is of note in comparrison




I'll second that IJH,  .........If you're unsure about that Agent, have a look at how quick the "number of views" goes up each day ........... One of the most viewed threads on ASF ..............

Just to add a bit of less serious content for a change .............. You know when they originally stopped Couchy from telling his stories about the 100 wells etc ...............

I FOUND WHERE HE'S BEEN HIDING !!!!!!!                         


:couch


----------



## Broadside

ditto...reading the ADI threads religiously, bets are placed, on edge of seat waiting for results now.  Keep up the great research, it's very much appreciated.  This has been an epic story, truth is stranger than fiction.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> not much interest here on ADI anymore....




You must be joking. 2000posts and > 135,000 viewings. Check out AUT, an equal participant in Sugarloaf and other irons in the fire with hardly a mention. 
(But then Aut holders get their news through Agentm at ADI)


----------



## bazollie

I'm with you Broadside. I wait on every post that AgentM submits as they are very informative & in plain english for all to see. 
You can tell that AgentM is passionate about ADI & I too am waiting patiently for any upcoming announcements which should make us all Smile!


----------



## Gspot

If ADI has what AgentM suggests, I'll become a cat lover. Which I ain't at the moment. Appreciate the photo's Agent M, makes more sense. Definitely a lot of action surrounding these guys. 
PPPppaaaaattttttttttiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnntttttttttttttttllllllllllllllllllllly holding.


----------



## Agentm

ok lets get it happening..

Kunde 1...

heres what they did.. extracts from completion logs from Kunde 1

Producing Interval (this completion)
11440 11470
11490 11520

11440-11470 PERFED UPPER CHAULK
11490-11520 PERFED LOWER CHAULK

11840-11870 BOTH OF THESE SETS OF PERFS ARE ISOLATED WITH A CIBP @ 11750 PERFED WITH 2SPF NO H2S

11905-11930 BOTH OF THESE SETS OF PERFS ARE ISOLATED WITH A CIBP @ 11750 PERFED WITH 2SPF NO H2S


now you can obviously see that kunde 1 had two seperate zones..

now to answer mr JC and his absolute garbage "study"..

this is what they did at kunde 1..

the well is years old, they twinned it with kunde 2, and then later put it on production.. so why is as crap as mr JC said it was..???

RULE 11 EXCEPTION IS GRANTED WITH RESTRICTION THAT WELL CANNOT BE PRODUCED BELOW 11520FT


they blocked off the lower zone so noone could see how well its going there.. and they have a nice choke on that hole too..

If they blocked off from 11520... and produce from the upper zone.. why drill Kunde 3 at the lower zone 12000 ????

thats the chalks!!

so whats above the chalks???

sugarkane... texas tea that is!! ADI said in their release the SL2 well was going after the same zone thats on prodution.. kunde 1 well is only producing from the upper zone.. 

guess where SL2 is going? 11500 feet.. horizontal!!!!

anyone excited yet..

i believe we have two zones, one is the chalks, one is the sugarkane..

i believe we have horizontals going after both plays..

i believe SL1 is being delayed, for the results of kunde 3... and by mid August the Kunde well will be ready, and i wonder if SL1 will be vertical much longer.. if Kunde 3 is horizontal into the lower zone,, why not do it at Sl1??

maybe that a part of what the capital raisings all about???

does this make sense?


----------



## Agentm

if you look at the other maps i put up, one shows wells at around our depth in our region,, i have others that are color coded right down to 400 feet intervals.. maybe i should post it one day..

this map is the TCEI land grab.. 

these are leases that TCEI has interests in, there are more..

I cant vouch for what depth they are, but because there has been hardly any drilling in the west of Karnes county and the northern section of  live oak for many a year, its strange this is the area that TCEI has interests in, i can see how the couch oil statement of "15 years in the making" starts to make sense..








it may also explain why i am holding the stock,,

do you see anything here that indicates TCEI is keen on the area??


----------



## Agentm

i guess it doesnt make sense unless you look at the whole picture..

someone else owns these four...


----------



## Agentm

TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. (845062) KENNEDY 1H 02 KARNES Horizontal New Drill - 12300


Lease Name: KENNEDY Depth:11550 Operator Name: TX CRUDE ENERGY INC 

I have to say this is where i am going wrong here..

if RCC database is correct. which it is.. then 12300 is the correct depth..

I look at my database which scouts data from the RCC, and adds more, and its got 11550


----------



## Agentm

i see the permit has been altered, which is confusing.

i have put in the plans for the horizontal which are a little clearer.

and the ground water permit also is inclear..


----------



## Agentm

the info i seem to get is showing 11550 as td, yet the RCC data shows 12300 td..

I was relying on the database i had as being correct as it contains the rcc data as the template, then adds in all the data of all wells, they have listed the well as having a TD of 11550.. so i saw the Kunde 3 well was going deeper i concluded there were two plays here,, (i am certain there is in anycase).. as oil and gas is being produced from kunde 1 well without any frac and just from perforating.. the well has rcc approval for the kunde well as follows

RULE 11 EXCEPTION IS GRANTED WITH RESTRICTION THAT WELL CANNOT BE PRODUCED BELOW 11520FT


i concluded that the Kunde 1 well having shut down the deep play and producing only from the upper zone. above 11520, further concluded when seeing 11550 TD on my database as being the basis for their being a upper play that was commercoal and being drilled horizontal.

I apologise for this error, the data i relied on clearly said to me one thing, yet it was not making sense..

I see SL2 is being drilled to 12300 TD and i can also see after seeing all the files paperwork where the database i use got confused..

I agree i should be observing others opinions better,and take that on board, i get a lot of flak for having an interest in the sugarloaf/ sugarkane project, i believe the project to extend far into the two counties, not just between kunde 1 and SL1..

its better for me to step out of these forums, as its clear i can be incorrect on things and not clearly see it (even if the data i see says 11550 feet as TD)

good luck to all holders,, its going to be one hell of a ride once the stock market finishes correcting..


----------



## tomcat

Agentm,

I think you are doing a hell of a job in trying to understand and picture together what is going on in Texas. Certainly look forward to your posts and the analysis you put forward.

Everyone can do their own research and I think the aim of the game is to all try to collaborate as much info as we can to get the whole picture. I'm still holding and look forward to coming weeks. 

Do you think that the Kunde 3 test crew will be the same guys who swing over and test SL1...I hope they dont hold off to much longer as any more delays in the current market could spell more of a sell off.

Cheers


----------



## chance fate

great posts agentm.. thanks..  it's good having TCEI across many of the leases.. means there may be benefits coming from the learnings on Kunde feeding into SL which the other JV's wouldn't have had to pay for....


----------



## jackohelp

Agentm.

FWIW I think you should carry on... you hinted earlier that you were getting fed up with JVP's not showing their hand..... just carry on forcing the issue, you are doing a great job. We all make mistakes you know!
CJ.
ps do not hold adi


----------



## Metron

jackohelp said:


> Agentm.
> 
> FWIW I think you should carry on... you hinted earlier that you were getting fed up with JVP's not showing their hand..... just carry on forcing the issue, you are doing a great job. We all make mistakes you know!
> CJ





Yeah I agree with Jacko!  Spill The Beans..!

The information you are digging up is fantastic! Keep it up! (Please)


----------



## Broadside

stay AgentM, if you need to take time off to test drive a few Porsches or pre-order 100 foot yachts I totally understand, but keep in touch as much as you can, this is the pointy end now and the action is about to begin. :


----------



## Agentm

will need to reassess the way i look at things, as the database has let me down,,

i want to do a regional study, looking at the plays north, and east and south, this will take some days,, the data may help you understand 2tcf is just the start of the potential here..

keep in mind there are a few leases not held by TCEI,, they are the enemy!!

thanks for the encouraging words from all

cheers


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> will need to reassess the way i look at things, as the database has let me down,,
> 
> i want to do a regional study, looking at the plays north, and east and south, this will take some days,, the data may help you understand 2tcf is just the start of the potential here..
> 
> keep in mind there are a few leases not held by TCEI,, they are the enemy!!
> 
> thanks for the encouraging words from all
> 
> cheers





Please dont leave us for too long agentM your posts and research are greatly respected by an awful lot of people - on both sides of the pond.

thanks for everything you have already posted.


----------



## jackohelp

agentm> just looking at your map of the leases held by TCEi.
Can you tell me where you find that out?
Am I right to say the name of the lease means nothing on the rrc site and the operators are all different?
Do TCEi own the leases? 
cheers


----------



## fflintoff

tarzanhey said:


> Please dont leave us for too long agentM your posts and research are greatly respected by an awful lot of people - on both sides of the pond.
> 
> thanks for everything you have already posted.




tarz,
USA is the other side of the pond, not Australia. Lol1
Australia is the other side of the world!


----------



## Agentm

what a wonderful day!!!

what is TCEI up to???

i have marked the new leases that TCEI just put in to the RRC yesterday..

purple dots (again cant vouch for depths so dyor)

interesting thats in line with the sugarkane..

so how far does this thing go?? i mean how many leases doesnt tcei own here??

my money stays with mr fluor,, he is seriously into this sugarkane.. spent an absolute fortune on it.. has the whole area sewn up.. 

SL1 is about to be tested.. serious upside on any success..

remember couchy and his oil.. i hear the elephants are about to arrive..


----------



## Agentm

i think i may not have been clear enough on what those purple dots represent..

for me its been 6 months of delays..

for TCEI its the blocks where the last leases have been hard fought for..

the fight is over, and the well can go ahead now..

Just think about why a well would be delayed for so long and for what area..

there must be some serious stuff in the leases for the testing to be delayed this long... just a reminder!!

_Adelphi Energy Limited advises that the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, commenced drilling at 0200 hours Texas time on 17 August 2006. _


so it now 15 days before its first birthday....

and then a month later in 2006





september 2006

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.

The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.

The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’

The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.

This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’






then leases being bought up big time.. (see maps above and previous pages...)


delays delays delays delays delays delays delays delays.................

no more delays from this point on..

remember kunde 1 is producing oil,,, kunde 3 had a 40 foot flare.. 

the adi boys are convinced we have the same play on our 20,000 acres..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well 1 year down and the SP has doubled so cant complain there.
SL looking too be a major play with all the research provided by AgentM quite mind boggoling some of it.
NT not dead and buried imo just a bit frustrating in the best way too get the best results.
Yemen just around the corner.
I like the sound of Thailand acerage.
ACP/32 well companies from overseas are paying millions of dollares just too explore in that area must be a good sign.
A busy well run company with cash on hand and experienced oilers with the ARC conection.
All is good from here on in


----------



## Loui66se

Hi Agent, really appreciate the tremendous amount of research you have done and share.  Wonder if you could copy and paste todays installments onto the ADVFN site for us please.  It might go towards shutting the likes of Loxley up - or setting them off again.  Jealousy is a terrible thing and I hope you continue to ignore or filter his digs  With thanks, Lou


----------



## Agentm

hey lou

i am not an eme holder, but if you want to cut and paste go ahead..

it seems even with a 40 foot flare on the well there are many doubters at eme, which is a real shame as anyone selling today is absolutely going to lament it in the very near future..

I dont think people understand what its like to be able to be in the position mr Fluor has.. TCEI has the absolute lions share of the leases here,, their clever move to buy the 10,000 acres off mobil all those years ago really clinched it for me.. with the 4 leases in live oak held firm by conocophillips i think we have a monster well coming up..  as you may be aware the kunde wells results will simultaneously coincide with the SL1 tests..

The TCEI scouts have secured the whole field end to end..  with a test well (pogue) back in 2002..  i have seen the logs there and you see i stay in ADI.. if you follow my drift..

I see kunde 1 was perforated, but not fraced, and is producing from parts of the well thats not sugarkane...

i see kunde 3 is going for the sugar,,  and Sl2 is a sweet tooth also,, looking exclusively for sugarkane on the horizontal..

there was a brilliant 40 foot flare the other day,, and a buying frnzy and 30% spike on eme sp,, and the news surfaced about the kunde 3 flare a week later after the spike..  leaky boat perhaps? (spectacular news)


TCEI, and Mr Fluor are basically setting themselves up for a major windfall,,, as will anyone who delves in this one..  there has been many years of history here, and in no way has this investment and the 100's of millions of dollars spent so far by the TCEI camp been done for a 50bcf play..

let the doubters be, i filter them as they only are abusive and lack any research.. they have not researched and calculated the staggering dollars spent here so far by TCEI for the last 15 years on leases and wells.. the pogue well is commercial, its tested twice a year,, its not on production.. its a test well that one day will be a production well..  why cap a well that can produce??? for this many years,, what sort of cash does this amazing TCEi have available.. i have the utmost respect for TCEI, and they have run this show brilliantly..

Hold on if you in,, its only days away now... Kunde 3,,, SL1...

elephants a stomping couchy said...   i cant wait to fly to texas and shake that cowboys hand!!  hats off to a legend..

what i would like to know is what would possess anyone to sell adi right now today!!  why not hang in a few days and see some bluesky..??


good luck to all...


----------



## Lucky_Country

I agree why would you sell ADI anytime in the near future.
Try too look past SL and even then you have a great value for money stock one that will become a market darling short term.
Thailand and Yemen excite me SL could be the company maker NT has some good potential just a few technical dificulties


----------



## Evangeline

Agentm, thanks for keeping up the posts.  The sp is holding up extremely well in the stormy weather.  I bought a few more today.  

Eva


----------



## Broadside

just as a general comment I think the oil & gas sector is a good one to be in should markets turn nasty, might provide a little shelter from the storm.  

Can we put our hypothetical hats on....should SL-1 results be excellent and commercial flow rates proved, how long before we get cash flow?  Also, how long before we get an independent verification of the size of the gas and / or oil resource?


----------



## Agentm

if you take say 30 paces from Sl2, then your on the pipeline..

there are two pipelines on the leases.. 

interesting!!!


i looked on google earth today and saw this!!


----------



## Broadside

Are those elephants to scale?  they look like Africans, the big eared variety.  I think I can hear them stampeding!


----------



## Agentm

sorry about the light humour there..

In terms of pipelines,, they are no problem,, cash flow would be immediate.. you can always truck the oil off in anycase..

In terms of reserves,, i am as independent as anyone,, so i will say 2tcf of african elephants.. 

once they get the two wells up i am sure the news on reserves will come through fast..


----------



## Evangeline

I am curious agentm - do you hold any other stocks other than adi or are you all in?  There's got to be something up - the sp is not even flinching atm

Eva


----------



## Agentm

Eva, i hold other stocks,, one stock that will double in the very near term imho was posted a new thread i started yesterday.. sbr.. its not understood by anyone so it will probably disappear.. no big deal.. just put it there to see if anyone followed it.

SP on ADI will move once the testing commences, the cementing is completed and the testing will soon begin..

the JVP's dont have to announce the well is being tested, it can easily be tested any moment and announcements come through after its completed..

_The first of the three identified zones is expected to be tested during the first half of August_​
_Fracture stimulation and testing equipment is expected to arrive at the well site during the first half of August upon which testing operations will commence. _

yep.. just checked my calender..  and its the first half of august alright..

things could arrive at any ole time...​


----------



## jackohelp

sorry agentm... had to steal your idea for advfn!

The RRC site refers me to the courthouse.. do you have a link?
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisions/og/not-reg-og-guide/ognotrrc.html


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> if you take say 30 paces from Sl2, then your on the pipeline..
> 
> there are two pipelines on the leases..
> 
> interesting!!!
> 
> 
> i looked on google earth today and saw this!!





LOL .......... Thats a terrible cut and past job Agent!!!!  Even the grass is a different colour ............ ( Nice to see some frivolity on the thread)

But who cares !!! ............ hopefully in a month or two we can look like the little guy on the right!!!!!!!!!! ...... :alcohol:

Cheers and good luck to the patient holders.


----------



## Agentm

barney said:


> LOL .......... Thats a terrible cut and past job Agent!!!! Even the grass is a different colour ............ ( Nice to see some frivolity on the thread)
> 
> But who cares !!! ............ hopefully in a month or two we can look like the little guy on the right!!!!!!!!!! ...... :alcohol:
> 
> Cheers and good luck to the patient holders.




really.. its that obvious the cut and paste??

i am already celebrating barney,, shares are locked in on long hold..

just imagine being in Mr fluors shoes right now, you have just stitched up 2 counties with leases,, extensively tested the play, done 2d's and 3d's with the best on this planet.. and you have 3 test wells, one on production and one capped off.. 2 horizontals and vertical about to deliver some major oil..

in a very short time you are about to absolutely go hell for leather on the sugarkane..

would you be a touch happy with yourself or what???

I back that guy anyday.. texas oilman and absolutely astute planning and strategic brilliance..  love his work!!

if you get it,, enjoy the wait .. not much more to go..


----------



## Agentm

Thought i would look at a few interesting things around TCEI and Mr Fluor.
As many may know, i got really interested in the sugarkane once ADi announced the play a few years back. 
As AUT has been involved in delores and flourbluff, i see their association then transfered to the third play, Sugarloaf.. and the AUT directors simultaneously spawned EKA with Mr Allchurch becoming a major shareholder.. That move really made me research the play.. the more i looked at EKA and its history on this with AUT, and the more i researched Sugarlaof, and TCEI and Mr Fluor, everything i look at oozes with amazing facts..

lets start with Mr Fluor.. here are some stats..

Texas Crude Energy, Inc. CEO (1980-)
Texas Crude Energy, Inc. President (1980-2001)
Texas Crude Energy, Inc. (1972-80)
Member of the Board of Chase Bank of Texas NA 
Member of the Board of Cooper Cameron Valves (2005-)
Member of the Board of Devon Energy (2003-)
Member of the Board of Fluor (1984-)
Member of the Board of Massey Energy (1984)
Member of the Board of Ocean Energy Inc. (1980-2003)
Member of the Board of Texas Crude Energy, Inc. (as Chairman, 2001-)



Then look at Fluor Corp.. a company with family associations still in its corporate structure..

Fluor Corporation is one of the world's largest, publicly owned engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance services companies. Over the past century, Fluor, through its operating subsidiaries, has become a trusted global business leader by providing exceptional expertise and technical knowledge across every phase of a project

Fluor is a FORTUNE 500 company that is ranked #1 in FORTUNE magazine's “Engineering, Construction” category of America's largest corporations.
Fluor has been consistently listed among the top five companies in that same category on FORTUNE's annual survey of _America's Most Admired Companies_ and is also the only U.S.-based company in that category on its _Global Most Admired Companies_ list. ENR (_Engineering News-Record_) magazine ranks Fluor #1 on it “Top 100 Contractors by New Contracts” list and #2 on its “Top 100 Design-Build Firms” list.
Fluor serves clients in a wide variety of traditional and evolving industries worldwide, including chemicals and petrochemicals; commercial and institutional; government projects; healthcare; life sciences; manufacturing; microelectronics; mining; oil and gas; power; telecommunications; and transportation infrastructure.

its a handy corporation, spanning globally with over 35,000 employees!!

Now that organization is not the one operating this show,, but it gives you an idea that the Fluor family are not exactly wanting in abilty!! a world class play is in the capacity of TCEI, and all i have see so far over the last years points to excellence in processes, timing and strategy, and i certainly believe that Mr fluor as director is treating this particular play with in a far different manner to any of his other operations.. this one has years of history, and research, wells drilled and capped,, 2d's 3d's and a pretyy big chunk of realestate on one of the hottest oil producing zones on this planet.

then whenever i look at the Sugarkane play, the way TCEI has worked it, i see associations only with companies like Mobil with the leases, Burlington/ConocoPhillips with leases, and the likes of Nabors Drilling, the worlds largest land based drilling outfit working hand in hand with TCEI.(on kunde 3). "Worlds best" are seemingly all thats involved here so far.. 

Then i look at how many ventures since 2000 that TCEI has been active on,,

I put in a map below with all the permits to drill since 2000 TCEI has been operating.. the last 6 years sees 3 projects as their main focus..
2 projects have been progressing, but of those three there is one that seems to have a years and years of research and work done to it.. one has 15 years..


The most compelling thing that is foremost in my decisions to remain active on the ADI share is the very telling map below, this is the map listing leases TCEI has in it portfolio, since 2000, and they are listed as purple dots, and the majority of them have been coming through in the great numbers over the past 2 years and past 6 months in particular.. leases are the first thing you need before permits, and the leases seem to be shouting out that something massive is about to happen in texas..

sure ADI have other projects in the future, but theres nothing in those projects that would entice me like sugarkane does, and it seems every major shareholder that is ADI, AUT and EKA seem all to be remaining absolute in their decision to hold..


i am of the opinion that a great deal can be seen in the number of permits that TCEI is going after.. i dont feel its for a mere 150bcf.. i think couchy may be reflecting only what he was told..

TCEI is absolutely focused on one thing right now... 

sugarkane 

again all IMHO and absolutely DYOR


----------



## rosalie1

AgentM,
When you put all the purple dots together the whole lot looks gigantic.  You have put in a massive amount of work on research on Fluor and TCE which benefits us all as holders of either EKA, ADI or AUT.  I look forward to reading all of your posts as it brightens up my day.

Looking forward to results soon....very soon....I hope.  Once again thank you for all of your hard work.


----------



## Evangeline

Agemtm - I was wondering if you could give me a breakdown of who all the jvps are and their share of the sugarkane project?  Sorry to be a bother.

Eva


----------



## Agentm

rosalie1 said:


> AgentM,
> When you put all the purple dots together the whole lot looks gigantic. You have put in a massive amount of work on research on Fluor and TCE which benefits us all as holders of either EKA, ADI or AUT. I look forward to reading all of your posts as it brightens up my day.
> 
> Looking forward to results soon....very soon....I hope. Once again thank you for all of your hard work.





thanks for that..

basically i am it for the TCEI part,, more than the ADI aspect.. I see you understand the implications of the massive acreages the TCEI corp guys have secured.. TCEI is where the cash goes and thats my interest,, ADi is the mechanism for the cash i invest to reach TCEI,, i watch both closely,, ADI is obviously more transparent.. TCEI has no pubic profle, and i can only trace their history by research..

i was reading this on the Fluor Corp website, which made me understand why sygar is such a key word for the Fluors..

Fluor Expanding Sugar Land Operations,
Plans to Hire 800-1,000 New Employees,
Posts Job Fair Schedule
Irving, Texas – January 16, 2007

Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) has signed a lease for 191,000 square feet at One Sugar Creek Place in Sugar Land and plans to hire an additional 800 to 1,000 employees.
The new space is located on US Highway 59 near Dairy Ashford. Fluor will continue to occupy 1,000,000 square feet at its operational center at One Fluor Drive in Sugar Land.
“It’s a great time to work for Fluor,” said Tom Zachman, vice president and general manager of operations at Fluor Sugar Land. “We are pleased to be able to expand our operations in the Sugar Land area while utilizing existing office space. The new space is near our current operations center, and will help us attract and retain the professionals needed to address the growth in our business during 2007 and beyond.” 


sugar is the key phrase in Fluors world!!


eva.. TCEI has AUT EKA ADI in australia.. In england EME, and in the USA we are aware of Burlington resources/conocophilips, Couch oil and possibly another Charles Couch company as a partner in the venture..  if you go to any on those websites  you will get info,, but i suggest that the ADI website has the most infor on sugarloaf,, and EKA has a lot of infor alos if you look at ASX data, their prospectus for sugarloaf awas very comprehensive.


i really dont think everyone gets what is happening at SL1.. and i fee the sugarkane field is not understood at all, as none of the JVP's have been given the green light to push the word out..  But the chalks are oil productive, and pioneer have ("meekly") put a well in on the sugarkane very near to kunde.. and another further away..  XTo are on the sugar play a little too..  We have the sweetspot,, with kunde wells having trouble containing the huge kickc the play can generate.. SL1 had to utilise huge mud weights to control the well also.. and we seem to hear that liquids are on the agenda now..

good luck if you going to hold.


----------



## Agentm

Looking a bit closer at Meeks 1, pioneer put that well in 8 miles west (and a touch north) of kunde 3, on a lease they had near the atascosa border. i looked at the depths,, exactly sugarkane..

well was immediately shut in.. Pioneer was keen to keep that one quiet!!  

ADI held up a bit today..

I think the Kunde news has to break sooner than later, the well has to be at TD (horizontally) now,, wirelined and ready for production casing.. surely the EME holders deserve some notice!!

SL1 looks the goods..  not many days left now..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Yeh a strong sign for the sp in todays carnage with SL 1 just around the corner why would you sell ?
Hopefully things will become clearer over the next few weeks and a bit more open with there statements so we can see some real sp action


----------



## Agentm

i dont have a single issue with the sugarkane play..

if it extends 8 miles past kunde 3, and we have it 6 miles east of kunde 3, and the next well is east of us..  how big and how wide is this suagrkane?

I know where it isnt!!  and i can easily see our 20,000 acres covers a good deal of suagrkane.. you have to get excited!!

Not trying to jump ahead too much, but the recent capital raisings by EKA and AUT was specifically for sugarkane...   look out for some news real soon on that front,, I am starting to see a lot of wells will be drilled in real short fashion, and i think its all aimed at only one play, the sugarkane play..

every part of this operation by TCEI impresses me more and more each day,, the names of the rig operators, the names of the major oil companies,, the former owners of leases, the way TCEI has put this show together..

in  a few weeks we get it official, with the well tests driving up our sp,, then we will see how well kunde is going with production numbers... then Sl2 will be chasing the same play confirmed by the tests,,  struggling to see any downside around here..

why would TCEI make AUT and EKA go to the market for capital for a drilling program on the sugarkane without even testing the Sl1 well???  

dont you usually test first then plan forward.. someone seems to know a lot more than you think,, TCEI is very very certain right here and right now,, and ADI are right behind them...

this play is absolutely amazing!!


----------



## Broadside

Thanks for your optimism and hard work AgentM it is a beacon of light on a pretty cruddy day, hoping ADI delivers and I think it will.  Good luck to all of us.


----------



## rolisatosser

The original diagram shows a North West to South East section.  It shows fault lines across the section.

Agentm, I assume that this is the reason that the sugrkane field in your own diagram is shown in the South West to North East direction?

I see that eme holders, including myself, have a very particular interest that the sugarkane field extends across the area of mutual interest.  It would appear to have a direct relationship to the % interest in the field.

Lucky_Country, is there a possibility that you can change your avatar.  Its a warm day here, I've got the windows open, and that place is so close I can smell it.  Not nice, I assure you.


----------



## Agentm

tosser 
re your question 

The original diagram shows a North West to South East section. It shows fault lines across the section.
Agentm, I assume that this is the reason that the sugrkane field in your own diagram is shown in the South West to North East direction?

i have seen fault lines on other diagrams running 45 degrees off horizontal line east west, if you get what i mean..  from memory at least two faults, and i think they are deeper down, but not certain of their uppermost reach. the eka prospectus on 
i have a absolute belief that the the pioneer well, meeks 1, is definately  on the sugarkane,  and that well is 8 miles west and slightly north of kunde 3. pioneer have shut that one in without any testing.. must have been pretty impressed, its been on ice for a year or so now..  i hear they bidded hard for karnes county acreages!! and lost no doubt to TCEI!!
i take it on advice from ADI and TCEI that SL1 is on the sugar, and the Sl2 well is by all acccounts going for sugar..  so i see a  definate trend east - west, and ADI said we have a good portion of the eastern section of that sugarkane play.
your kunde 3 well must be close now,, word is your overdue for an update there and expect some very upbeat news, they seem to have misjudged how good the well was going to be.. you guys deserve a good report, and i think your about to see one..  it should impact on the share a lot as there has been a lot of speculation on the eme share on news that circulated a good week before the last release on kunde on the 25th july.
we can assume safely that the update was at least a week out.. so the 4850 feet of horizontal drain hole must be just about ready for the production casing..

i have heard we have an equally prospective geology at Sl1, and by the couch remarks on how the well behaved through the wireline, the sugarkane has some kick to it and its got plenty of liquids...  so any good news on kunde is a great lead into what we can anticipate at Sl1 and Sl2!!


----------



## fflintoff

As mentioned by agentm:-

Local Business
Oil and Gas Report: 05.09.06

 “Pioneer Natural Resources USA of Irving has filed for a permit to drill the No. 1 Meeks, a wildcat with a proposed total depth of 12,500 feet. The well will be located 24.7 miles northwest of George West in the BS&F Survey A-108”

http://www.caller.com/ccct/oil_gas_report/article/0,1641,CCCT_832_4684805,00.html


----------



## Agentm

at last.. someone is interested in meeks..!!

Meeks 1 is on the play alright, Pioneer have listed it as a gas completion well, yet they have shut it in.. it been done elsewhere around our leases by them also!! 

Normally a gas completion well has testing information, and these guys have not done one,, so nothing can be seen about whats there other than the producing zone... which is sugarkane!!  TCEI has done the same with SL1,, if you test it you have to report the findings.. and then the landowners know what happening.. pioneer have shut that one in last year,, but its ready to produce whenever it suits..

just as a vsiual, you can see how lucky pioneer are to get close to sugarkane.. and its to their advantage when negotiating leases to also keep sugarkane under wraps..

anyone seeing a pattern yet??

apologies for all these maps,, but it helps sometimes..


----------



## resourceboom

Hi Agentm, yes your hypothesis on the kane and meeks1 looks reasonable to me.... this piccy I think shows it well.....


----------



## Agentm

it seems very odd to me resourceboom, that the pioneer crowd are drilling at that target, they had a good look and then shut in the well..



*Fracture stimulation and testing equipment is expected to arrive at the well site during the first half of August upon which testing operations will commence.*


from my perspective, theres no real expectation that the jvp's will announce anything at sugarloaf until they get some data.. 

they could be testing right now or setting up?? who knows.. we are in the middle of the first half of august.. 

is it fair to say that up until now the jvp has been very reasonable in informing their investors of progress and setting forward dates for things, due to the delays on the drilling and testing of this well. but now they have announced the testing can happen, the news could happen anytime.. i dont expect any further announcements, just confirmations of flow rates, and probably a lot of interest in the results.. 

not much interest in the share right now.. i was expecting that when the testing happened the share would have attracted some attention.. maybe a small run on it.. 
​


----------



## Agentm

i am absolutely convinced eme has to release kunde 3 details, they would have to be at TD and deciding whether to frac or not after wirelinign..

the recent ARQ presentation states that they believe kunde 3 and Sl2 will be chasing the same play (sugarkane) and say the play has very high potential!!  so is high potential 150bcf??  or is high potential 2tcf with liquids as well??


http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/presentations/20070801_Corporate Presentation.pdf

Adelphi’s US operations have very high potential

Adelphi has the potential to provide considerable upside in the ARC portfolio including access to other high value projects

•Sugarloaf well –(SugarKane Field) 

•Carbonate play at ~12,000 feet with potential to extend over a large area already under lease (~20,000 acres leased). 

•Sugarloaf 1 well identified potential pay zones of 28 metres based on well logs and gas shows encountered during drilling. Similar to recent producing discovery nearby (Sugarkane Field) -*gas with high liquid content.*

•Testing of Sugarloaf 1 carbonate zones scheduled to commence in August in tandem with drilling of first horizontal well on held leases (targeting same producing horizon as in Sugarkane Field) in early September. 

•Active ongoing drilling program on neighboring leases by Sugarkane Field operator (major international company).

•Existing nearby pipeline infrastructure ensures early commercialization of producible hydrocarbons.


*gas with high liquid content*, we see it again and again, this liquid content has been kept firmly off the radar until ARQ and all the JVP's got the green light actually mention it.

lets see what eme announces, but i cant see the next announcement from EME having any negative impact on any of the jvp's sp, i only see upside from news thats about to follow..

I am certain the jvps are not interested in the sp in the near term as the real value is to come in the period post Kunde 3 and SL1 SL2 news..  
not much opportunity left to top up.. and the sp falls away daily..

will they use the same rig used for the cement squeezing?

if so then the new crew must be arriving and the testing must be imminent.


----------



## Father Ted

Before we all get carried away with that ARC presentation, I suggest that you all have a look at the way that some of the geology has developed over the last couple of years.

Take a look at page 20 of the presentation!

When that chart at the bottom of the page first appeared, and it should be familiar to most of you, it was showing a possible gas pay between the Wilcox and Edwards formations.

By 14th February 2007, in the Aurora report on incease interest in Sugarloaf, it showed the same chart, but with part of a fault line, and that entire gas/oil field - missing!

Now, in the ARC presentation, its back - only they seem to have a bit of trouble making their minds up which is Sugarkane ,and where the 28m gas pay should be.

More to the point, the world has swung round 180 deg and where the section was marked NW to SE (left to right) - its now SE to NW.

Now is that intended to inform - or to confuse?


----------



## Agentm

father ted,, first post on ASF.. interesting that you notice the changes also.. a few in the UK have been seeing things too!! 

i think you should ask ARQ and AUT about it.. I am sure they would offer an explanation. iwould be interested in knowing what response you get..

my opinion is that anyone today wanting to buy a share in EME would be really confused.. with them misleading their investors into believing the kunde 3 well is not sugarkane, but sugarloaf, and using false names on wells...

Anyone trying to understand sugarkane may be less confused with the aussie JVP's, with more information coming through on the quarterlies, and the now very evident proclamation we have the "eastern" part of suagrkane. 

ARQ has now clearly made an attempt to show things in the correct fashion, and their presentation is attempting to follow the sugarkane theory. my understanding it that its not edwards, its austin chalks region, and the horizontal will go after the chalks not the edwards.. 

and i see Sligo is still hanging in there, not much mention of it on the forums though!

look closer at the diagram,, you will see the new zone of sugarkane is marked around 2750m (9022 feet) and the play under it at about 3000m (9842 feet)

the logs from couchy are not showing the same thing, so i dont see the map values standing up to scrutiny.. and the SL2 well is chasing sugarkane 11500 feet to 12300 feet.. so the scale is wrong 

but if you look at it from another angle, and see it as a diagram not to scale, it does show sugarkane and something under it!!



CEASING TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER  


Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT) (“Company” or “Aurora”) advise that, as a result of the finalisation of the $10.6m share placement first announced to the market on 24 July 2007, the number of ordinary shares on issue has increased to 182,492,417.
This increase has caused the percentage of ordinary shares held by entities associated with the Company’s Chairman, Jonathan Stewart, to fall from 5.84% to 4.97% (although no shares have been sold).

looks like john has diluted himself out of being a substantial shareholder!!

interesting though.. 

AUT 182,492,417 shares

ADI 105,958,662 shares

so 57% more shares on equal share of Sugarloaf AMI JVP..



EKA 63,875,000 shares 42,482,000 options total 106,357,000


maybe some value in the ADI sp!!


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> CEASING TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER
> Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT) (“Company” or “Aurora”) advise that, as a result of the finalisation of the $10.6m share placement first announced to the market on 24 July 2007, the number of ordinary shares on issue has increased to 182,492,417.
> This increase has caused the percentage of ordinary shares held by entities associated with the Company’s Chairman, Jonathan Stewart, to fall from 5.84% to 4.97% (although no shares have been sold).
> 
> looks like john has diluted himself out of being a substantial shareholder!!
> 
> interesting though.. ]​





I would expect him to take up the pending 1 for 10 share offer which is pending and that will take him back into the substantial list again.​


----------



## Agentm

nice to see the pre permit for SL2 went through, and we got RRC approval for the SL2 well yesterday..

Congratulations!!  its official, we can drill the horizontal SL2 well now.

the Kunde 3 well must be very close now... days perhaps??


----------



## cathald1

Hi All

Been in GOO infact still there
Have followed JJF into EME and  ADI I ddid my on research though mainly based on agentM's info so hi Agent M by the way my Handle on ADVFN is Lotire


----------



## rolisatosser

Hi to the much respected Lotire, yet another ADI holder from my side of the planet.  Agree with your praise re the quality of Agentm's research.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Good too see worldwide intrest in ADI not suprising with this exciting company combined with AgentM constant revealing research !


----------



## cathald1

Rolisatosser is that you JJ?
IF so I down  here for a dingos breakfast  is a "p__s and a good look around.
Just a bit of aussie humor


----------



## Agentm

just over the last few months i was looking very closely at the XTO site, its purchased from ChevronTexaco, as part of their 54 bcfe aquisition..

Bcfe Billions of Cubic Feet Equivalent (Per Day; Gas Exploration)

its possible some have missed the significance of this field.. but lets just say its 6 miles north of Kunde 1 .. it produces primarily from the 10,000 - 11,000 feet edwards limestone they say..

maybe we have something like they do, maybe we dont, but even 10% of it would make you very very rich indeed!! and many were very keen to go after the leases.. the JVP's have made that very very clear, and done their level best without breaching any regulations and saying things that cannot be proven, but in all fairness i read what they say and have to agree,, its pretty impressive to have major oil companies contest your lease aquisitions!!!!

Now TCEI has been able to drill this SL1 well and the Kunde 1 well and pretty much not let too much out, and if you think XTO isnt watching , and pioneer isnt aware of whats going on, maybe think about something else, somehow when you post it visually it makes it so much clearer.. so in the middle of this massive XTO field we see something that looks very very impressive...


The site you see is 6 miles north of Sl1 and Kunde 1... 

These leases in our hands have been aquired by very clever and skillful means, and they are extremely valuable IMHO, the primary reason why SL1 has not been tested was to aquire very sought after acres.

many out there doubt the conocophillips and the JVP's claim that sugarkane is very extensive. I am of the opinon if you asked Pioneer whats at meeks 1, they wouldnt care to say.. I am of the opinion that the former owners of at least 10,000 acres are perhaps wondering what the heck they did that for, and i know that not many understand what i am saying, but when you look at who owned what and where in the past, then you have no reason to bat an eyelid as to why conocophillips stayed in on the sugarkane.

seriously, if your thinking of bailing right now, DYOR extensively and absolutely be sure there is nothing in the suagrkane... because in only a matter of a days to week we will be seeing some action like never seen before imho.. 

The jvp's have been raising capital soley for the sugarkane, and i think the EKA sharehoders are really lamenting the fact they had to go again 67 days after raising their first batch of funds for sugarloaf, the second raisning was not for sugarloaf, but for the development of sugarkane.. where else have you seen a jvp been forced to raise capital for many many wells before testing the first well, and to be sure there is anything there?? Not one JVP has hesitated in raising capital for the undertakings about to be taken by them.. no questions asked!!


there has been a lot of money spent on this by TCEI, and conocphillips, way way more, many times more than the JVP has tipped in so far..

so think long and hard if you bailing, long and hard, the information on this sugarkane is not always clear, but the reasons for the obscureness of it has always been to achieve a end nett result of massive upside..

ADI is a high risk high reward investment,, if you going to hold and stay in, like me, then the rewards are only days away.. and if your bailing, good luck and i i hope you made some good gains..



*XTO STATEMENT*

*South Texas Region*



We acquired 54 Bcfe of proved reserves in nine South Texas counties as a part of our 2004 ChevronTexaco acquisition. The Fashing Field, located in Atascosa County, primarily produces from the Edwards Limestone reservoir at depths ranging from approximately 10,000 to 11,000 feet. We have identified 20 to 40 potential well locations in this region and plan to drill six wells in 2005.


all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## wallave

Agent M,
I like to read your posts and have been for the past 9 months or so.  I have held quite a few eka and some adi for almost 12 months now and have confidence that we are definatley on a winner.

You have mentioned previously that TCEI have spent plenty over the previous years researching and sizing this play up.  Whay would they let some small Australian companies come in at the home streach and take the glory with them and share in the potential windfall. Why would they farm out what they have been researching for years and had confidence in.
Just curious as to how the aus companies and EME managed to get themselves involved in what we hope will be a very large discovery?

Thanks in advance


----------



## Agentm

Wallave

Dont ask me, ask the TCEI guys..

CP did extensive 2d's, and you can see where they hold leases.. TCEI has a massive amount of leases in the region.

I think the pogue did not find the sugarkane, then obviously kunde 1 did, with very favourable porosity, so the geology looked good. Kunde 2 was lost, Kunde 3 is going brilliant..

I dont think that until SL1 hit the sugarkane that they really understood how big it could get.. the porosity was better than elsewhere, by a longshot, and suddenly things changed at SL1, time to hold all testing and get the acreages boys!!

they are certainly quite sure in the live oak play, and the horizontal well drilled there is certainly showing signs of great things. Once the Sl1 well found the sugar, and the oil,  i think they then spent all efforts on securing the acreages the 2d's and 3d's had shown up as prospective. 

if TCEI was certain from day one i doubt we would have been involved, maybe its an advantage to come in as a abscure Aussie/UK jvp and not come in with CP oil major as a partner.. who knows, i certainly dont..

this way TCEi controls the shop, if with CP he would be second fiddle, so think about that!!

I know who held some 10,000 acres before, and they must have had some idea about the chalks, but i think maybe the chalks are not always attractive to major oil companies?? due to the uncertanty of the relatively new technology in horizontal drilling, its only a few decades old after all..

again, those sort of answers are best sought from the directors you are investing with.

TCEI is not a bottomless pit of cash, every oil venture has risk reward considerations, and TCEI may be extending to cover all acres and keep control but also farming out to smaller JVP's it can control and work with, and be certain that they can also fund the expansion. Maybe theres something in that?  

as i say i am just guessing, and only the directors may know the full story there..


----------



## wallave

thanks AgentM                                                   

Testing should start next week.  I just hope that there is now no delays in getting the results out. I have worries that results won't be released straight away - not that it matters in the long run.  I'd just love to see a nice boost to the share price and the results on the board to get the wider market interested.

Good times approaching soon.


----------



## Agentm

wallave, you may have noticed that one of the jvps has a real leaky boat,, sp spikes and falls before the news breaks consistantly!! 

in light of that, i think there would be no chance of the jvp's being able to hold back any data, once its tested the news will be released as it happens, as promised in earlier releases. 

everything is absolutely ready, and there is no real reason for any jvp's to actually report if the well is currently being tested right now or not..  i wonder if they will as up until now all news from TCEi has been held very tight..

Some buyers want in right now on ADI, and no one is prepared to sell by the looks.. 

theres a long history here in sugarkane,, and everything i see points to tcf type outcomes.. and oil.. and i dont even lose a minutes sleep on this one.. not many day left if we are to assume they have not started already!!


----------



## fflintoff

Latest from XTO at Fashing as per agentm´s remarks.

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisions/og/purchasers/n.html

Oil and Gas Division
Oil and Gas Proration Schedule Listed by Purchaser
Purchasers names beginning with the letter N
August 2007


01  FASHING (EDWARDS LIME -A-)       FLD NO. 30379500 AF

 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000205 OTTO ET AL GAS     2480X    2480X    2480       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000206 SCHUMAN ET AL G    2976X    2976X    2976       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000207 SCHUMAN ET AL G   11036X   12152X   12152       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000208 SCHUMAN ET AL G    4340X    4557X    4557       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000209 STOLLE ET AL GA    1085N    3100N    3100       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000210 TARTT, EMMA ET  14B2 EXT                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000213 TARTT, EMMA ET     9238X   13950X   13950       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000214 TARTT, EMMA ET     5611X    5983X    5983       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      053094 HURT, W. T. ET     2108X    2108X    2108       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      088305 TARTT, EMMA ET  14B2 EXT                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      091131 HENDERSON ET AL    3224X    8215X    8215       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      091757 HURT, W. T. ET     7657X    9021X    9021       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      095344 HENDERSON, ET A    4557X    4557X    4557       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      095834 KOEHLER, EDNA S    1829N    3100N    2790       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      097642 HURT, W. T. ET    11191X   11191X   11191       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      111692 KELLNER ET AL G   11253X   11253X   11253       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      116743 TARTT, EMMA ET     6448X    7967X    7967       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      117043 HURT, W. T. ET     5766X    5766X    5766       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      117044 TARTT, EMMA ET     6200X    6572X    6572       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      117342 HURT, W. T. ET    14694X   16678X   16678       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      143195 HURT, W. T. ET     4433X    9889X    9889       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      145061 HENDERSON ET AL   15407X   15407X   15407       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      145125 TARTT, EMMA ET     1798N    3100N    3007       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      151595 HENDERSON ET AL     868N    3100N     868       0
     EXISTS        PAGE   1
GAS-WELLS (MCF)
DIST  FIELD NAME,ALLOC & FACTOR                  MONTHLY      TOP   MONTHLY   5/1
        OPERATOR           I.D.     LEASE           ALLOW    ALLOW   DEL     STATUS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
01  FASHING (EDWARDS LIME -A-)       FLD NO. 30379500 AF
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      151629 HENDERSON ET AL    8215X    8432X    8432       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      156648 HURT, W. T. ET     7874X    7874X    7874       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      164104 TARTT, EMMA ET     6231X    7998X    7998       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      164105 HENDERSON ET AL    1271N    3100N    1333       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      184571 HENDERSON ET AL    6448X    8215X    8215       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      185508 HURT, W. T ET A    2635X    2635X    2635       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      186744 KELLNER ET AL G   21917X   22413X   22413       0
                             FIELD TOTAL MONTHLY DELIVERABILITY     219387
01  FASHING (EDWARDS LIME -B-)       FLD NO. 30379750 NF
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      088306 TARTT, EMMA ET     T. A.                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      143199 HURT, W. T. ET  SI MULT                 0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      144630 TARTT, EMMA ET  14B2 EXT                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      145124 TARTT, EMMA ET     T. A.                0       0
                             FIELD TOTAL MONTHLY DELIVERABILITY          0
                             GAS LIMIT MONTHLY TOTAL                 19468
                          ***G-10 DELIVERABILITY MONTHLY TOTAL      219387
                             SYSTEM MONTHLY TOTAL                   238855


----------



## Agentm

still only looking forward to one thing.. how good the flows are!!

that number of XTO wells today is producing today from porosity almost half of what SL1 has!!  

TCEI knows everything there is to know about that play, and couch oil was well briefed by TCEI about it and was very excited in announcing it!! 

no wonder the leases were very hard to secure.. 


The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. *The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location.* Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


I think i will just enjoy the next few weeks..


----------



## Agentm

ok.. guess i am a little bored with it all..

i guess its time to use the visuals again..

if i pasted this visual, can you see it yet????

how big is this sugarloaf site, and what on earth have they set up on this site!!  we have 2 pipelines on the immediate acreage. powerlines on the acreage..

do yourself a favour.. if you have google earth, pan down to the site close and have a look.. then look around at other sites, even look at wessendorf with its double horizontals.. this one dwarfs it,, have a look at the xto site i posted a pic about a few days ago.. 

Sl1 has pretty big site dont you think? and a lot of infistructure on it

capital raising + tcf = (insert picture here)


----------



## mick z

hi agentm,

i saw your pic from a few days ago and i was thinking the the same as you , thats a lot of infrastructure for one or two wells. if you could find out if there is a gas gathing system on site it would tell us they are expecting a huge amount of gas, (THK ASX ) bought one from metro energy for 1mill becuase they were expecting so much gas.
it could be a very big clue as to how much gas they think they have.

mick


----------



## Agentm

mick z said:


> hi agentm,
> 
> i saw your pic from a few days ago and i was thinking the the same as you , thats a lot of infrastructure for one or two wells. if you could find out if there is a gas gathing system on site it would tell us they are expecting a huge amount of gas, (THK ASX ) bought one from metro energy for 1mill becuase they were expecting so much gas.
> it could be a very big clue as to how much gas they think they have.
> 
> mick





in the early days i tried to not refer to the size of the sugarfloaf 1 site, it was very obvious from the first time i looked at the site that the ring road around the site, and the massive size of it made for very interesting viewing.. 

You dont see any drill site with that type of ring road unless you see plant and infrastructure with it.. 

i spent a good few days checking and rechecking to see if i wasnt seeing things, as the size didnt fit the well type!!

since they were buying acreages i sorta kept it off the topic of things i felt comfortable discussing on forums.. 

right now,, i dont give two hoots,, there is nothing about sugarkane that i dont feel is worthy of discussing..

its the same size as the xto site!!

just an observation.. dyor on this one..


as a footnote,, if you tried to talk about this in the uk forums, there is this clown there that would say i was ramping and say the SL1 site was something else.. maybe they are farming on the acreages or water tanks!! 

i guess i am a bit sick of the usual crew there doing everything to discredit the TCEI CP sugarkane discovery.. i dont hold eme but i sure feel sorry for the holders there having to deal with the likes that they have over there..


----------



## Evangeline

Well I sold a parcel of another stock today and swapped them for adi's.  It seems to me that at the very least adi is a safe haven for my capital.  The sp is barely moving!  

Bring on the news I say.  Anyone got any idea when we will hear anything?

Agentm I have been watching sbr also - I bought a modest quantity the other day and will put them in the bottom drawer.  

Eva


----------



## tarzanhey

AgentM - yes it is very sad that the UK board is haunted by ROL the self obsessed tosser. The sooner we get the real news out the sooner that jerk will be stopped bringing everyones sentiment down.

Keep up the good work.

Tarzan


----------



## Agentm

nice move eva.. mine are in the same place,, sbr is under the radar big time right now, dont sell those shares, they are tightly held..


I believe mid month is the next time we get updated about SL1...

as for mumbo jumbo kunde 1????  who knows?? today would be good for them as they are going to get absolutely wiped by the panic sweeping the exchanges..


----------



## Metron

With all of the topping up of ADI Stock that seems to have been going on lately i have been wondering about what percentage of ADI we all represent.

My guess is that we represent a very large proportion of the shares on issue... So at the risk of being shot down or Booo'd Off the forum anyone care to start a quick Ball Park(ish) tally? 

I am happy to kick things off... I can account for approx. 2.7 million shares in my circle.


----------



## fflintoff

Pioneer going hard at it in the Pawnee field.

Pioneer quarterly report 9 Aug 2007

“In the Pawnee field in South Texas, the Company is continuing its new fracture stimulation procedures on the existing wells. The results to date have shown increased production rates and the Company believes the procedure is increasing the recoverable reserves from the wells.

In the Edwards Trend, the Company also continues its shooting and interpretation of approximately 900 square miles of 3-D seismic data over its 2006 discoveries. The seismic data will allow the Company to more accurately locate and orient the horizontal wells for optimal results.

Onshore Gulf Coast area.The Company expects to drill approximately 45 wells (including wells on two to three new prospects) in the Edwards Trend during 2007. The Company continues to add the necessary infrastructure, primarily gas treating capacity and pipeline systems, related to its discoveries and development activity in the trend.”

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=PXD&script=1901


----------



## cathald1

All
I put cash on both EME and ADI mainly stacked in ADI's favour  Wished I had put it all in ADI now. I have read loads of Agent M's posts and value your research (most prolific). The ADVFN EME board is "wreakin my buzz" as we say in Dublin full of money hungry rumour shorters . I have no doubt thought rewards will be good. Agent M keep up the good work.


----------



## Evangeline

Eme has been hammered in the last couple of weeks.  Presumably this is due to the stormy weather, but why has adi not taken the same kind of hit.  There has been a bit of a drop, but nothing like eme?  

Any ideas gentlemen?

Eva


----------



## vince3321

Hi AgentM,

I am considering following Eva's move and buying some sbr. But also wonder if I should not buy more adi instead. Would you see sbr as more risky than adi?

Ta.


----------



## Agentm

vince,, i cant advise.. i like sbr, and there is a thread on it here on the ASF and HC, worth a read, 

eva, cant help either,, eme is its own beast, i have seen adi go through highs and lows, and bought in constantly, and at prices way above todays also.. 

sp has no meaning to me currently, i am not a trader, but an investor, so ups and down mean little.. i am very suprised with the great value the share is now, but thats my own opinion. but some big buys are happening just quietly in the background,, 100,000 orders are making it through daily.. 

sugarkane is no small venture.. i just post my research and share it a little, but as always DYOR and take note that its all IMHO..


----------



## Evangeline

I like to diversify and not put all my money in one share no matter how good the potential.  I like to have a few irons in the fire which are at varying stages in their life cycle.  

Adi is now short term and no matter what the market is doing if it has what it thinks it does in the ground it will be bluesky - potential downside if it is a duster would be a 50% loss of capital imo.

Sbr is long term, but has huge potential in terms of the resource and the infrastructure.  What I like about Sbr is that buyers will pay whatever it takes at these levels to get on board.  Even over the last few stormy days buyers have paid in the 40s, in the 30s and then in the 40s again.  A few cents does not ultimately matter to the market it would seem.

This is good in terms of putting your money away in Sbr and having a bit of confidence the share price will not head south for long - even intraday.  It is not following normal buying patterns at the moment haggling over half a cent each way etc.  People want this stuff and there aren't many shares available.  If the market weather were better I think this one would be even harder to get.

Adi also has a very solid sp atm in the lead up to news.  All imho.

Eva


----------



## Father Ted

Agentm said:


> in the early days i tried to not refer to the size of the sugarfloaf 1 site, it was very obvious from the first time i looked at the site that the ring road around the site, and the massive size of it made for very interesting viewing..
> 
> You dont see any drill site with that type of ring road unless you see plant and infrastructure with it....




Agentm

Hi, I think care needs to be taken. Anything thats square and white is being assumed to be an oil well. - not necessarily true.

The site shown as 'sugarloaf' is interesting, and I agree, its not obvious what its intended for - but the actual well head is only 310 ft from the cr173 road. That's about 700ft to the west of construction area show (check the survey).

The only picture that I have seen of the Sugarloaf rig, (and I can't remenber where that was), showed it in the middle of a field.

The construction is almost certainly oil/gas related, but I don't think its the well head site itself.

A bit problem with Google is that its not exactly current, its only a snapshot in time, and that time is some time ago.

Another point, How certain are you that SL is not on the Edwards?!

Father Ted


----------



## chance fate

Hi agentM... still enjoying reading your posts...thanks...  on adelphi's web site there's a video of the 'journey to texas' in it about 2/3 way thru' you can see a truck delivering casing to the site...  the road ways leading to the site have got different twists and bends compared to the google-earth post...  got the feeling this is the wrong location....


----------



## chance fate

looking again maybe they were filming from 28deg44'02.53"N 98deg01'42.27"W just on the corner there...  think i can still make out the tyre tread pattern in the dirt....   if true ... they've really turned it into a nice big site....


----------



## Agentm

I agree father ted. definately not well head site, 

310 from the fence line, and in the last shot on the adi film, the truck with the casing turns the corner on the south west corner of the lease, you can see the patterson rig is 310 from that road as the truck rounds the corner and heads north.. in the shot you see a glimpse of the infrastructure in the lease. i am very curious on what the infrastructure is, you seem to feel its oil related and i am not 100% certain of its origin.
as the well head appears not to be on that pad directly, then you can also not conclude the infrastructure is absolutely oil related.

because kunde 1 was on the map i assumed the site was sl1 due to the july 06 start date and the sept 06 completion date of the kunde 1 well,, what i forgot to take into account was the 12 months the kunde 1 well took before actually submitting that comletion report.. so the map looked right to me in terms of the pad, but i always couldnt understand its size... makes sense now, the pad is actually not on the map as the kunde well took so long to complete..

so if you conclude the well site is about half way from the pad as we see it and the fence line along the road running north - south..

The kunde 1 site is visible on the google map, so its post Kunde 1 pre kunde 2. 

so i have to say in all the footage the guys did at the site, you very rarely get to see whats behind the well,, its occassionally there in glimpses, blue structures? and lighting?? but nothing is clear..

more mystery, or perhaps nothing at all.. but its a very sustantial site yet not entirely visible from any camera shot in the entire adi footage..


----------



## Agentm

will be off the BB's for a while now, have some things to deal with and will be monitoring the reports throughout the next few weeks,, probably find some time here and there to check in,, but all looks set for some great weeks ahead,,

fingers crossed we will all see the planning of TCEI and the jvp come off in spectacular fashion,, thats what i am in it for,, 

mid weeks looks like the time things will start,, so plenty of time to load up or sell out if your taking profit..

tcf is my optomistic belief,, i hope all holders in this jvp get better than that..


----------



## wallave

Going of the Boards now just as things are about to heat up Agent M.   The next few weeks will bring us hopefully what we have been waiting for for almost a year now.


----------



## fflintoff

This appears to be the new site for news from Central Basin / Charles Couch:-

http://www.centralbasinoil.com/default.asp

http://www.centralbasinoil.com/news.asp


----------



## Agentm

not long to go now...

mid week news will break on start dates for SL1..

just enough time for a bit more topping up!!

nice pickup flint...  will try and look at it in the next few weeks..


----------



## rolisatosser

fflintoff said:


> This appears to be the new site for news from Central Basin / Charles Couch:-
> 
> http://www.centralbasinoil.com/default.asp
> 
> http://www.centralbasinoil.com/news.asp





You have to wonder about these guys jumping around like a cat on a hot tin roof.

also at http://www.cboenergy.com/


----------



## cicak_kupang

I had  been thinking of how much energy is in 50 bcf, 500bcf, 1tcf, 2 tcf etc. 

Has anybody else read the article on the front page of the business secton of the Australian on monday the 13 aug.....
In short its about the exxonmobil australia take on the gas in the bass strait.
The part that answered my thought on how much energy is in a tcf was this........"We have added approximately *1 trillion cubic feet *(tcf) of gas to existing resources in Gippsland since 2004- *enough gas to power a city of a million people for 20 years....."*
Think about that......1 tcf is enough power for a city o million people for 20 years.....20 YEARS!!!!     And its been noted on this forum that the jvp's ami may hold 2tcf......now thats alot....

It's really opened my understanding of just how big this could be.....

If our ami has 500 bcf, then thats still 10 years of power for a city with 1 million people....

Bring on the testing results.......  Wouldnt be suprised if there are "delays" again..........  It's ok, ive got all the patience in the world for this.....


----------



## fflintoff

Kunde No 1 has a completion depth of 14700ft which is deeper than I realised compared to Kunde No 2 at 12800ft & Kunde No 3 at 12200ft. Also the new horizontal Kennedy well ( Sugarloaf # 2 ) has a depth of 12300ft TVD. 18000ft+/- MD


http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/1-99999//PR0000060749_0001.pdf


http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/200000-299999//PR0000219518_0001.pdf


http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/200000-299999//PR0000284424_0001.pdf



Submitted 06/01/2005 Approved 06/02/2005  601463   297-34621   BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333)   KUNDE  1    02   LIVE OAK   Vertical   New Drill   -   14700   Approved   

Submitted 09/06/2006 Approved 09/08/2006  625493   297-34698   BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333)   KUNDE NO. 1 GAS UNIT  2    02   LIVE OAK   Vertical   New Drill   -   12800   Approved   

Submitted 03/08/2007 Approved 03/19/2007  634877   297-34726   BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333)   KUNDE NO. 1 GAS UNIT  3    02   LIVE OAK   Horizontal   New Drill   -   12200   Approved


----------



## Lucky_Country

Whats going on with the sp does someone know something why are they giving it away this close ?
Is someone driving the sp down too acumulate very frustrating  !


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Whats going on with the sp does someone know something why are they giving it away this close ?
> Is someone driving the sp down too acumulate very frustrating !





nothing up!!

just panic,, its happening on all the shares right now..

We are today in the same place we were yesterday.. about to test SL1, about to drill SL2 into the sugarkane.

if only i had some spare cash right now today!! some great prices out there right now,, 

once the updates come through things may change!!


----------



## Metron

Hot off the press...

SUGARLOAF PROJECT UDPATE 

Adelphi Energy has been advised by the Operator of the Sugarloaf Project (Texas Crude 
Energy, Inc) that testing of the Cretaceous aged carbonate zone in the Sugarloaf-1 well 
is now expected to commence by the last week of this month due to a delay with the 
availability of the frac and testing equipment required to undertake this next well 
operation.  

The Operator has also confirmed that the rig to drill the next well “Kennedy-1H” 
(designated Sugarloaf-2 in our previous release) on the Sugarloaf Joint Venture leases 
has now been secured and construction of the drill site has commenced. A contract has 
been signed for the same rig that successfully drilled Sugarloaf-1 and which has 
adequate capacity to drill this next well. As previously announced, Kennedy-1H is 
designed to be drilled as a vertical well to a depth of approximately 12,000 feet at which 
point the well will be kicked off to drill a 5,000 feet horizontal section into the upper zone 
of the Cretaceous aged carbonate reservoir.  

On a trouble free basis, Kennedy-1H is expected to take approximately 45 days to be 
drilled and completed, to be followed by fraccing and testing operations if successful. 
The well is expected to spud by mid September, subject to the timing of the rig’s release 
from the well it is currently drilling.  

Further information on the testing program for Sugarloaf-1 and the drilling of the second 
well for the Sugarloaf Project was provided as part of our ASX release dated 11 July 2007. 

For further information please contact Alex Forcke on 08-9263 4600 or 
info@adelphienergy.com.au


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm said:


> nothing up!!
> 
> just panic,, its happening on all the shares right now..
> 
> We are today in the same place we were yesterday.. about to test SL1, about to drill SL2 into the sugarkane.
> 
> if only i had some spare cash right now today!! some great prices out there right now,,
> 
> once the updates come through things may change!!




Someone knew something before todays SL update down 11.5c before the announcement thought we were all on a level playing  field obviously not !
Well more delays will we ever see any results from SL ?


----------



## Agentm

i like the news myself..

OK SL1 is delayed, and SL2 is delayed further..

why??? not to hard to see.. 


Kunde 3 has been going for 80 days, and not reached TD!!! think about it, the well way behind, its not lost, but they are struggling with the massive pressure there..

45 days is all it should take... K3 is now 80days in and no TD.. get it yet???

Ok we get the patterson rig back,, this monster rig, the biggest land rig in texas, with its monster pumps will deal and deliver the operator sufficient confidence to deal with the pressure the sugarkane delivers..

couch was very specific about the massive pressure kick in his report in sept last year..

SL2 is going to be drilled by those that know the play... and if you have nothing more powerful around in texas than our rig, i am very happy to see that rig back, she delivered SL1 on time and without any hitch..


There is interesting details in this report, they are telling you something here, suddenly they may drill to 12,000 feet and kick off horizontal.. does that mean half the play is too powerful a kick to deal with? and the lower play is better and safer?

there is no doubt at all in my mind that6 they really are waiting on how K3 is going. 

SL2 is relying on understandings from K3 and delayed.. thats my view. 

SL1 is not going to be tested unless they know what part they want to drill horizontal.. thats my view and fine by me.

The best part of it is that we have again got all the advantages of the K3 experiences to make sure we get delivery of a successful well..

for me this announcement confirms yet again that they really have such a difficult play down there with pressure, that they have to be very very sure of things before going to the next step.. they are not going to repeat mistakes, not going to lose another well, and we get it all, best rig in texas and the understandings of exactly what to expect from the play..

I am absolutely committed to finding out whats going on at K3 now.. thats where the answers are right now.. this play must have massive pressure behind it!!


----------



## sbop

Down 11.94% ....  Whoever it is that selling please feel free to continue cos i don't mind buying some more sub 60c.
P.S thanks for the insight Agentm.


----------



## Agentm

sbop said:


> Down 11.94% .... Whoever it is that selling please feel free to continue cos i don't mind buying some more sub 60c.
> P.S thanks for the insight Agentm.





no probs..

i came close to snaring another 100k today, some clown had it at .62  

i was on the phones trying to get the funds together, then it went away!!

to be frank it would be overextending, but even for a few weeks i think i could have made a great return!!

for those fortunate enough to have the cash,, good luck!! i envy you..

i am stoked with the report, its exactly as i thought i would be.. delays due to K3 was my pick, and christmas!!

i think the crew on K3 are earning their keep right now.. i hear its pretty exciting there right now..


----------



## chance fate

..my 2c worth...  i reckon it's pretty good news... providing you can bare the jitters from the unrelated independent US mortgage crisis in the short term.... they're progressing kennedy 1h without seeing the tests from sl1....  like the add says "that's confidence"...


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks for all the great info Agentm.  I hope you are right.  It certainly does make sense.  Sounds good needing the big rig to handle it!

I bit the bullet and shot some of another stock to get the funds to buy more ADI at 59c today.  

ADI has so much more upside than the other play and a sideways trade seemed a good idea atm.  Nerves of steel and good luck to all holders!

Eva


----------



## Evangeline

Bty Agentm, what does 'TD' stand for in the context of drilling a well.

Sorry I am very new to this oil and gas business!

Thanks
Eva


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Thanks for all the great info Agentm. I hope you are right. It certainly does make sense. Sounds good needing the big rig to handle it!
> 
> I bit the bullet and shot some of another stock to get the funds to buy more ADI at 59c today.
> 
> ADI has so much more upside than the other play and a sideways trade seemed a good idea atm. Nerves of steel and good luck to all holders!
> 
> Eva





your certainly have some fortitude!!

TD means terminal (total) depth..  the end point of the drilling.

I dont have a single problem holding onto adi right now.. kunde 3 is a brilliant well, and the 35 extra days of drilling could be accounted for by the pressure problems and other factors on the rig deck..

SL2 is waiting for patterson, that rig is not laying idle, so once that massive rig is dissassembled and reassembled then away we go.. we have all the knowledge of how to control the play from K3 to use at SL2

SL1 is only days away,, i wouldnt be counting on anything past the end of the month,, within a week or so..

think about the massive pressure these guys have been fighting with at K3, and the huge kicks!!  what a play..


----------



## Lucky_Country

I remember massive pressures at NT and I cant remember the last time I heard anything from ADI about NT maybe it was when they said it was no commercial flow rates !


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> I remember massive pressures at NT and I cant remember the last time I heard anything from ADI about NT maybe it was when they said it was no commercial flow rates !





nt was a fault play..  they cant explain the loss..

up the well at about 14000 they will test next.. in no rush really it seems, but who would be when you about to pepper 2 counties with wells!!


----------



## jackohelp

up the well at about 14000 they will test next.. in no rush really it seems, but who would be when you about to pepper 2 counties with wells!!
r u talking K3 or NT?

Is there a remote possibility they could lose K3? or is that just talking daft.


----------



## rolisatosser

Agentm.  did Pueblo and Regency appear in your research?
From my investigations, there is an expectation of growth from the Fashing area.
If so, did you do any analysis of throughput on the existing facility, or more appropriately on the new pipeline?


----------



## Metron

Hate to put a dampner on things here guys but lets not get too excited about imminent news... Texas is about to be hit by a storm so fairly safe assumption to expect delays on the upcoming announcements...


----------



## Agentm

i was talking to a local down there, runs a property just down the road from SL1, said they have had more rainfall already than the summer average, expected a good few inches from this one, said the locals looked forward to it for the hay..

jjf..or tosser or whatever you are..

Energy Transfer purchased the Houston pipeline grid after they went bankrupt.. have not checked the other line,, i assume thats what your talking about? can you email any details..

Jacko..

NT is New Taiton, a well in Wharton county, it was on a fault play, and they lost circulation in the welll and couldnt drill to TD, they put in production casing, and perforated and fraced, the pressure never came back.. its a mystery.. Its shut in now, and will be reviewed as soon as the JVP is happy with quotes for uphole frac operations according to ADI.. 

re K3, can it be lost? absolutely, the well is dealing with intense pressure kicks.. That well must be close to TD right now.. 

sugarkane is a very high pressure play, as experienced by K2 and K3 and with SL1.. the patterson rig is being called upon for very very sound reasons!! its one of the biggest rigs in texas and has massive pumps to deal with this high pressure play..


17% drop yesterday, and now 10% today.. thats great value right there!!

if all shareholders on the planet rigth now today donated 1% of their shares to fix the sub prime delema, and pay out the loans, which berneke said was only 50 - 100 billion, then there would be plenty cash spare for perhaps feeding the starving and maybe a small war somewhere.. 

we have mass panic and share price wipeouts, which themselves generate more losses and bankruptcies.. so as to add fuel to the fire of the panic..

i still remain unphased by this media induced hysteria. and look forward to perhaps joining those who are adding some more at these brilliant prices.. 

good luck to those selling and your doing well today if your buying!!


----------



## jackohelp

Agentm we are being hammered again by mm's as you can see
any K3 pics/data greatly appreciated


----------



## rolisatosser

jjf..or tosser or whatever you are..
Energy Transfer purchased the Houston pipeline grid after they went bankrupt.. have not checked the other line,, i assume thats what your talking about? can you email any details..

call me jjf if you like, just don't call me tosser, its reserved.

Agentm, it is my suggestion that the mysterious sim card type building is (as you have said) gas related.

I believe it to be a gas compression and treatment plant previously owned by Pueblo and now owned by Regency Energy Partners who are in the process of linking it to their RIGS pipeline.

http://www.regencygas.com/website/operations/services_south.html

The pipeline connecting it to the Tilden plant should have been installed by now, but has been delayed by rain.

I listened to Regency's recent weebcast and believe that they are preparing for increased throughput.

http://ir.regencygas.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=194063&p=irol-irhome


----------



## Agentm

rolisatosser said:


> jjf..or tosser or whatever you are..
> Energy Transfer purchased the Houston pipeline grid after they went bankrupt.. have not checked the other line,, i assume thats what your talking about? can you email any details..
> 
> call me jjf if you like, just don't call me tosser, its reserved.
> 
> Agentm, it is my suggestion that the mysterious sim card type building is (as you have said) gas related.
> 
> I believe it to be a gas compression and treatment plant previously owned by Pueblo and now owned by Regency Energy Partners who are in the process of linking it to their RIGS pipeline.
> 
> http://www.regencygas.com/website/operations/services_south.html
> 
> The pipeline connecting it to the Tilden plant should have been installed by now, but has been delayed by rain.
> 
> I listened to Regency's recent weebcast and believe that they are preparing for increased throughput.
> 
> http://ir.regencygas.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=194063&p=irol-irhome





its possible,, but the pipeline that the plant is on is owned by energy transfer, the pipeline just passing SL2 is from regency the way i see it,, can you confirm the plant is on that acreage? i see the xto wells are serviced by them and xto are increasing their production there,, pioneer have big plans in the area also.. watch out for big things in northern bee county,,,

i am hoping to have the site solved in short term.. just work in progress..

are you adding at eme??? it looks like great opportunities right now..


----------



## cathald1

The sim card is not a building there are no shadows to the west.  This photo was taken mid morning when the sun was heading for the apex. so you would expect to see shadows on the west face there is a small white roofed building within the compound there is a shadow on the ground at west face of this. it is highlighted by the contrast to the cream background   

There are power lines comming in from both the south and north, you can see the rows of pylons in the fields surrounding, if you want i can render using gaussian edge techniques and post to prove its not a building. 

I analyis alot of aerial photos as part of my job. Believe me this looks just like a power distribution station.


----------



## Agentm

ok.. this is how the pipelines run. all gas... liquid line is about 500 metres east of SL2..


----------



## rolisatosser

http://www.worldaerodata.com/wad.cgi?runway=US0791835

it looks like a runway

and it is a runway


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> your certainly have some fortitude!!
> 
> TD means terminal (total) depth..  the end point of the drilling.
> 
> I dont have a single problem holding onto adi right now.. kunde 3 is a brilliant well, and the 35 extra days of drilling could be accounted for by the pressure problems and other factors on the rig deck..
> 
> SL2 is waiting for patterson, that rig is not laying idle, so once that massive rig is dissassembled and reassembled then away we go.. we have all the knowledge of how to control the play from K3 to use at SL2
> 
> SL1 is only days away,, i wouldnt be counting on anything past the end of the month,, within a week or so..
> 
> think about the massive pressure these guys have been fighting with at K3, and the huge kicks!!  what a play..



€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

agentm,
This is the Kunde # 3 rig number as I believe that you wanted to compare it to the Patterson #30 2000hp Triple Tower beastie for the Kennedy horizontal drill:-

Drilling Contractor:
NABORS DRILLING 
Rig Number:
775

P.S. Just an excuse to get my century!!


----------



## cathald1

I checked the USGS agent M you are correct
the buildings and runway are recent
http://nmviewogc.cr.usgs.gov/viewer.htm?bbox=-106.8001,25.6956,-93.3574,36.6439

Youll have to zoom in manually on the coordinates


----------



## chance fate

one thing that doesn't make sense is why they have seemingly restored the sugarloaf 1 well site to what looks like the original field/pasture....  when there is still well testing etc. to be carried out...  can't make out the well-head from google....  the sim-card site looks brand new...  they'd need to put in a few separators (condy/oil/water), slug catcher(?) plus sales gas conditioning (glycol tower?) etc if this is going to be a gathering station for the field's producers...  surely the JV's would have announced that construction was taking place if this is the reason for the site....  could it be a large drill site with several drill slots for deviated wells running out to the required drainage points?  and does it even have to belong to the JV's...??


----------



## Agentm

jjf..

dont need to be concerned about the runway so much, its part of the san christoval ranch,, its owned by a gentleman from interstate and he jets in.. 

the smaller pad in the pasture is a pump station for the gas pipeline. south gate gas transmission..

the other sim card site is unknown to me.. i have had observers from texas in the oil industry say its oil/gas related, and some here who are saying its electrical grid related..   

the google map is about 2 years behind.. pogue is on it, kunde 1 is seen, but not kunde 2 which went in at around the the same time as SL1

SL1 site is as correctly pointed out earlier not on the sim card but is half way from the simcard to the road 173. 350 odd feet from the fence, so on google earth you can measure it and pick the point in the pasture..

still nothing in the way of news from K3... astounding!!


----------



## rolisatosser

I am conversing with someone in the area.
SL2 site is very close to the road.
just a short trip up the 626 from highway 72
What should he be looking out for, and when?


----------



## Agentm

you better not lead those texas locals on a wild goose chase!!

i was speaking to nabors drilling on the size of the 775 rig, the rig is a 2000 hp rig, so similar hp to the patterson rig..

interesting that they chose to wait for the patterson rig to come off another site rather than use any of two 2000 hp rigs laying idle in the nabors stable..


----------



## rolisatosser

This is where your research is deficient.
One correspondent describes the area as well known for dove and deer hunting.  But it is not an area for chasing wild geese.


----------



## Agentm

if you look at san christoval, and the paddocks between the runway and the SL1 well, you will see lots of bush, and then long clearings with slight bends in them,, thats the deer paddocks, just fly in, and spend a lazy weekend shootin those deer.. 

back to maps..

i keep looking at that 12000 pre permit by texas crude energy inc has there in live oak on that taylor lease.. love the way fluor plans the future..

i can see the TCEI SL2 pre permit sitting there, which became a permit last week, but isnt that other pre permit looking nice there in the live oak sugarkane.. TCEI is obviously thinking 12000 there is worth a look at some point.. wonder if its sugar???

TCEI is certainly planning ahead...


----------



## nioka

Bought back into ADI yesterday as the AUT offer at 53c has lost it's appeal when ADI was available for the same price. The volatility of both has been good to enable an increase in my overall interest with no additional outlay by switching between the two. Something had better happen soon or I will have to repeat my groundhog day statement.
The google earth pictures are interesting. Agentm are you using the professional version or the one generably available?


----------



## chance fate

ok...  out of date - google says 2007 but guess that's the edition and doesn't indicate the date of the photography... that'll explain why the rig looks very close to the road in the adi video and background trees are in the wrong place and why i was thinking the roads didn't look right...  sim-card site must be completely unrelated....


----------



## Evangeline

Agentm,  I was reading the thread at hc.  I understand that tfc means trillion cubic feet and refers to gas.  What does 168 BO mean?  I presume it is a measurement of oil - how much?  Thanks.

Eva


----------



## jackohelp

eva>
168 barrels of oil. sometimes seen as this too 168Bls
Bbl means a barrel of 42 U.S. gallons of oil.
Boe- barrels of oil equivalent- when converting gas to oil.


----------



## chance fate

.. and apparently bbl stands for blue barrel...  something to do with the colour of the exxon barrels they used in the old days...  apparently gets a mention in Daniel Yergin's The Prize somewhere...  but i only got a few pages into it before the series came on telly....  i've seen brl start to be used more frequently recently....:freak3:  there's also the Texan field unit the TGH which stand for the Ten Gallon Hat...  so 1 BBL = 4.2 TGH's of oil ;-)


----------



## Agentm

i still am not convinced all leases are 100% secured, i still see more coming up with TCEI on it.. they are buying up more towards karnes city..

this sugarkane has definately excited TCEI, its definately a lease buying frenzy out there in Karnes county!! As i have said before, my money is with TCEI, my research tells me this is not a 50bcf play.. this activity and planning for 16 wells on the sugarkane with 500foot horizontals is something way bigger than 50 bcf or 170 bcf.. so sp value means nothing right now as in only a few days the first indications of how sugarkane is progressing into karnes county will be known.. and i look forward to seeing how accurate the the couch oil remarks were..

Good luck to all holders this week, not many days to go and the long awaited SL2 results will be posted.


----------



## Evangeline

What a nail-biter it has been! I got a few at 56 on Friday and as far as I'm concerned the sp can feel free to go north anytime soon.  I wonder if this hurricane is going to cause further delays.  

How difficult it must have been for all you long term holders to wait all this time.  All I can say is you must have a lot of faith in the potential.  Fingers crossed we will all be happy soon.

What did Couch say?  I gather the report was pulled from his website because tcei wanted to secure more leases and that has been the alleged cause of the delay.  Is is possible to give a quick summary... and how did he know?

Eva


----------



## Agentm

couch was quoting what TCEI told him..

oil, 100 wells, and massive pressure..

there are 16 step out wells to start with, then infill after that i guess..

with more leases going through  i see the delays at Sl1 are needed.. 

I see no problem with holding my position with ADI.. i held on the research i did on the sugar, there is no way i would normally hold this long, with increasing delays, and frustrations of 12 months and no frac test on Sl1, 

unless!!!!!!!!!!!

unless i was absolutely certain in my own mind that Conocophillips and TCEi was onto something worth hanging around for..

hey, in a week we will know if my research helped me any!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

AgentM your research has helped us all I would have sold out long ago if it were'nt for you and your post.
Now its just a case of hold in there till we get results which cant be far away.


----------



## rolisatosser

I agree with you agentm.  If tcei leave the gag inplace whilst other leases acquired, then that is fine by me.

The delay (and poor excuses) in testing sl1 has been indication enough. 

and there is no reason for delayed announcement to interfere with the drilling program.

I wonder if tcei are requesting patterson30 for a decent term?  Sounds like they might need it?  Surely tcei have the resources to move forward at decent pace with the 16 well program, even if one well at a time using patterson30.


----------



## Agentm

jjf,  the patterson rig was used for kunde 1, and now its been used for SL1 and now SL2. Their crews on that rig have done a lot of hours on the sugarkane, so I am sure they will be looked upon with favour by TCEI when they bid on the wells.. theres plenty of horizontals going in all over karnes county, so plenty of experience to call upon..

16 wells wont be a problem for a a few companies to handle,  nabors driling has 2  2000hp rigs waiting right now.. and i thought i read they were bringing in a lot more to south texas.. which shows some forward planning is happening between conocophillips and nabors.. pioneer and enduring are doing a lot of horizontals also.. 

I am heartened to see that rig back, if its been well serviced then it shouldnt be outside of its capacity to deal with the pressure the sugarkane delivers throughout the 5000 foot horizontal..


----------



## Agentm

more news on the gulf of thialand.. ADI are 50% partners on block G3/50, which gas oil condensate discovery already on the block!! all we need is a bit of luck and win the bid perhaps!!




Sun Resources NL (“Sun”) advises that it has participated in the 20thBid Round in Thailand by participating in a bid submission on the following bid blocks.


G3/50 Offshore Gulf of Thailand Sun* 50% Adelphi Energy Limited 50% 8 including Sun & Adelphi Energy Limited​ 
L20/50 Onshore Thailand Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd* 50% Sun 50%​Sole Bidder 



Sun considers both of these blocks offer an excellent opportunity for encountering commercial hydrocarbon accumulations within the good fiscal regime of Thailand. 
The G3/50 block is located within the Chumphon Basin in the western portion of the Gulf of Thailand. The block was assessed to have significant reserve potential for both oil and gas, with a gas/condensate discovery having already been made within the block. The highly prospective nature of the block was confirmed as it attracted a significant number of bids, 8 in total. 
The L20/50 is targeting oil and located in the southernmost portion of the Phitsanulok Basin, the most prolific onshore basin in Thailand and which contains the Sirikit Field. Sirikit is the largest onshore oil & gas accumulation in Thailand (reserves in excess of 200mmbbls) and is located approx. 40 kms to the NW of L20/50. Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd (Carnarvon), as Operator for the Participants will utilize their onshore Thailand experience, from the Wichin Buri Field, to explore in this block. Carnarvon and Sun are the sole bidders on the L20/50 block.
An announcement on the winners for each of the above blocks are not expected until approximately October 2007.
​


​


----------



## tarzanhey

Evangeline said:


> What a nail-biter it has been! I got a few at 56 on Friday and as far as I'm concerned the sp can feel free to go north anytime soon.  I wonder if this hurricane is going to cause further delays.
> 
> How difficult it must have been for all you long term holders to wait all this time.  All I can say is you must have a lot of faith in the potential.  Fingers crossed we will all be happy soon.
> 
> What did Couch say?  I gather the report was pulled from his website because tcei wanted to secure more leases and that has been the alleged cause of the delay.  Is is possible to give a quick summary... and how did he know?
> 
> Eva




Eva the post is still there but slightly hidden.
Try --- 
http://www.couchoil.com/daily1.asp

Subject: Sugarloaf 1st Phase Good

Date: September 29, 2006


Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success

We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.

Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.



The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.



The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.



The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’



The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.



This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’

cheers Tarzan


----------



## Agentm

i agree jjf

*The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive*


thats all i really want to know about!!

interesting that the chalks are productive at the fashing field 6 miles north, just as couch says,,  and the Kunde 1 well is a great well to compare the fashing austin chalks to..

i posted their figures on HC today, got nil response.. no one gets it yet,, wait until next week i guess..


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks Tarzan.  Sounds good - I for one am on tenterhooks waiting for the news!  No wonder you have all held on so long.  

Eva


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> i agree jjf
> 
> *The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive*
> 
> 
> thats all i really want to know about!!
> 
> interesting that the chalks are productive at the fashing field 6 miles north, just as couch says,,  and the Kunde 1 well is a great well to compare the fashing austin chalks to..
> 
> i posted their figures on HC today, got nil response.. no one gets it yet,, wait until next week i guess..




Rolisatosser,
August figures by purchaser for Fashing from the RRC:-

01  FASHING (EDWARDS LIME -A-)       FLD NO. 30379500 AF
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000205 OTTO ET AL GAS     2480X    2480X    2480       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000206 SCHUMAN ET AL G    2976X    2976X    2976       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000207 SCHUMAN ET AL G   10695X   12152X   12152       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000208 SCHUMAN ET AL G    4278X    4557X    4557       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000209 STOLLE ET AL GA    2077N    3100N    3100       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000210 TARTT, EMMA ET  14B2 EXT                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000213 TARTT, EMMA ET     9176X   13950X   13950       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      000214 TARTT, EMMA ET     5983X    5983X    5983       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      053094 HURT, W. T. ET     2108X    2108X    2108       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      088305 TARTT, EMMA ET  14B2 EXT                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      091131 HENDERSON ET AL    3224X    8215X    8215       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      091757 HURT, W. T. ET     7378X    9021X    9021       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      095344 HENDERSON, ET A    4557X    4557X    4557       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      095834 KOEHLER, EDNA S    2418N    3100N    2790       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      097642 HURT, W. T. ET    11191X   11191X   11191       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      111692 KELLNER ET AL G   11253X   11253X   11253       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      116743 TARTT, EMMA ET     6417X    7967X    7967       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      117043 HURT, W. T. ET     5766X    5766X    5766       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      117044 TARTT, EMMA ET     6169X    6572X    6572       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      117342 HURT, W. T. ET    14384X   16678X   16678       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      143195 HURT, W. T. ET     4433X    9889X    9889       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      145061 HENDERSON ET AL   15407X   15407X   15407       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      145125 TARTT, EMMA ET     3007X    3007X    3007       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      151595 HENDERSON ET AL     868N    3100N     868       0
     NEWFIELD EXPLORATION COMPANY      606617-0000 NO SYSTEM EXISTS        PAGE   1
GAS-WELLS (MCF)
DIST  FIELD NAME,ALLOC & FACTOR                  MONTHLY      TOP   MONTHLY   6/1
        OPERATOR           I.D.     LEASE           ALLOW    ALLOW   DEL     STATUS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
01  FASHING (EDWARDS LIME -A-)       FLD NO. 30379500 AF
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      151629 HENDERSON ET AL    7688X    8432X    8432       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      156648 HURT, W. T. ET     7874X    7874X    7874       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      164104 TARTT, EMMA ET     6231X    7998X    7998       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      164105 HENDERSON ET AL    1240N    3100N    1333       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      184571 HENDERSON ET AL    6448X    8215X    8215       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      185508 HURT, W. T ET A    2635X    2635X    2635       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      186744 KELLNER ET AL G   22351X   22413X   22413       0
                             FIELD TOTAL MONTHLY DELIVERABILITY     219387
01  FASHING (EDWARDS LIME -B-)       FLD NO. 30379750 NF
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      088306 TARTT, EMMA ET     T. A.                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      143199 HURT, W. T. ET  SI MULT                 0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      144630 TARTT, EMMA ET  14B2 EXT                0       0
 *** XTO ENERGY INC.      145124 TARTT, EMMA ET     T. A.                0       0
                             FIELD TOTAL MONTHLY DELIVERABILITY          0
                             GAS LIMIT MONTHLY TOTAL                 19468
                          ***G-10 DELIVERABILITY MONTHLY TOTAL      219387
                             SYSTEM MONTHLY TOTAL                   238855

http://209.85.135.104/search?q=cach...asers/n.html+xto+&+fashing&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=7


----------



## rolisatosser

the above refers to edwards limestone, whereas Couchy said the Edwards looked to tight to produce????


----------



## tarzanhey

rolisatosser said:


> the above refers to edwards limestone, whereas Couchy said the Edwards looked to tight to produce????




Hmm JJF very interesting - but what I really want to know is do you really think that Rol is a tosser? or is he too tight to produce? lol


----------



## Evangeline

Those 100k sells just kept on coming this afternoon.  Looked to be the one seller - as soon as he sold one lot he just kept loading on another lot.  Hope nothing is amiss.

Perhaps it is the hurricane making holders nervous.  God knows what more delays it will cause!

Eva


----------



## Agentm

the edwards is not on the agenda at the moment.. 

just the austin chalks..

XTO produce from the chalks, you can pull up the data from the RRC.

Its the meeks well that pioneer put in a little while back found the suagrkane too thats making it interesting.

This field is quite big, we have all the prospective acreages, the likes of XTO and Pioneer have looked at the fringes.. 

The key to this play is horizontal wells producing commercially, nothing more nothing less, and as EME is not declaring the well is at TD, and not releasing to the market what they found in the horizontal, then there is little anyone can to get any understandings on horizontals until SL2 is completed.

Its not likely TCEI is going to drill this horizontal well if Kunde 3 was going to be a failure, they have in the last week ordered the rig on site and its now being constructed at SL2..  I am certain the kunde 3 news is vital to the success of the area, and if there was any doubt, or failure at kunde 3, then they would be testing SL1 before they even got the SL2 well up and running. 

i am of the view the operations at sugarkane are looking past the likelyhood of drilling success, i think they are of the mindset that they have proven the horizontals will be fine, and its really down to getting the second well in and tested as quick as possible, then once its proven the play is productibe at kunde 3 and at sugarloaf 2, then they will go on with the 16 well program..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## chance fate

for what it's worth my theory on the selling is punters taking a final round of profit before there's no escape - could stand on the sidelines and just wait for the results then get in and avoid the risk...  hope i'm wrong but don't reckon there's going to be much upward movement pre-results now - tho' reckon EKA in particular is cheap.... 

Eva...  reckon Dean is a double edged sword... could impact oil production/refineries and drive oil prices higher or disrupt SL operations giving delays...  looks like the trajectory is well south of our beloved investment at this stage tho' so don't think there's much to worry about there except some possible heavy rainfall as the storm dies out once it strikes Mexico...


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> for what it's worth my theory on the selling is punters taking a final round of profit before there's no escape - could stand on the sidelines and just wait for the results then get in and avoid the risk... hope i'm wrong but don't reckon there's going to be much upward movement pre-results now - tho' reckon EKA in particular is cheap....




the selling has been on all three jvp's, could be the same investor or a bunch that are getting phone calls on margins???

and may be a bit of what you say and bit of the other.. 

also, some investors came in at the .70 region, could be a final opportunity to turn over trades and run a loss before the big upswings in the sp in the near term?? i mean we are about to get filthy rich, so if you came in at dec 06 you could be clever and offset some loss against the massive taxes we are all facing in the near future. (cant do that myself as my averages are way way down from this price) 

just a thought..


as i keep saying,, fundamentals dont change.

the gas and liquids are not going anywhere!! 

major oil company, conocophillips.
tens of millions many times over invested easy...

the play extends:
West as far as meeks, possibly further??
North as far as XTO as they are producing from the chalks
South??? 
East.. yep, you guessed it 20,000 lovely acres.. and we have it all!!

170 bcf!!!  if you want to believe it you can,  but i hold for what i believe is many many times that.. and each well will unlock more and more of the potential of this play..

as i see more leases going in from TCEI, i feel the delays are due to stop and action about to begin

good luck to those selling, and remember those shares are being snapped up very very quickly..

all imho and dyor


----------



## cathald1

had a conversation earlier on today with and old colleague from my dupont days yes I dug some one up who confirmed all the suspicions on the SL and was suprised that an irish person was asking him about Sl and thought it was in company secret only...... maybe  americans are more insular than i had ever imagined


----------



## Agentm

insular!! 

paranoid more like it!

so what suspicions did you have on sugarloaf to want to ring dupont?  (i thought dupont were textiles??)


----------



## cathald1

dupont conoco as in the biggest merger that ever happened way back in 81 was dissolved in early 2000 but loads of contacts still there


----------



## Agentm

cathald1 said:


> dupont conoco as in the biggest merger that ever happened way back in 81 was dissolved in early 2000 but loads of contacts still there




about 2000 cp became interested in the area.. in 2002 they did extensive work there in live oak and karnes...  

so are you able to elaborate what your suspicions were?? 

for instance my suspicions on the sugarkane is that conocophillips are not looking at a 170bcf play but potentially multi tcf.. (as i cant imagine a multinational giant like them wasting years in time and vast amounts of cash and resources on a high risk play like sugarkane unless they had some idea about it not being such a high risk)


----------



## cathald1

no they wouldn't go after anything small 
largest gas find since the 50's possible bigger than the Exxon/mobil find in the gulf inthe 70's was mentioned 
a few other things as well but is just heresay.


----------



## Agentm

cathald1 said:


> no they wouldn't go after anything small
> largest gas find since the 50's possible bigger than the Exxon/mobil find in the gulf inthe 70's was mentioned
> a few other things as well but is just heresay.





ohh.. well i guess its just not worth hanging in for then.. 

i am dissappointed, i was expecting something like the Ghawar Field, oh well,, maybe it will turn into something worth while, who knows???


----------



## Evangeline

I have never had a stock which was so rife with rumours and intrigue as this one.  Makes me tempted to scrape together my last few pennies and get a few more at 53c!  

If nothing else it would all make a great screenplay.  

Eva


----------



## rolisatosser

several weeks ago lotire/cathald told me he had good contacts regarding another oil&gas stock.  He told me privately a little about those contacts and the very priviledged position they were in.

one day he spoke to me privately and also posted a cryptic comment on a bulletin board.  It was an out of context post which made sense when the rns came out several hours later in the day.  He kept it cryptic on the board because he dare not post the true content because hisontact was also aware of the bulletin board.  But it proved to me , not that I doubted, that his contact is very close to the info.  I choose to take this info on the sugars, plus the other he has told me that he has not posted, at face value. 
Thanks mate, and don't forget me when the touch paper is lit over at the other place.

if anyone wants me to explain and show proof that he was ahead of the rns I can provide a link.
rolisatosser@hotmail.co.uk
please don't copy this to a uk board.


----------



## cathald1

Rol 
I think(hope) they were taking the PISS as being a little sarcastic...... making a call re others hope to have some info soon lets just say i am doing a bit of horse trading..will let you know 

DOh just twiged why the sarcism............ re my comments from Wilmington.... biggest find stateside not worldwide since 50's but again this is just heresay from contacts that were in the business some time ago.  
C


----------



## Agentm

cathald1 said:


> Rol
> I think(hope) they were taking the PISS as being a little sarcastic...... making a call re others hope to have some info soon lets just say i am doing a bit of horse trading..will let you know
> 
> DOh just twiged why the sarcism............ re my comments from Wilmington.... biggest find stateside not worldwide since 50's but again this is just heresay from contacts that were in the business some time ago.
> C




ok cathald..

if your saying the posts re the conocophillips contact was genuine, i will respect that. My concern about the post and the reason for disbelief is that this board is well read, and in particular this thread, and its possible you may be putting your contact in a position of discomfort. but Conocophillips is a big organization..

i have heard some staggering stories about the sugarkane, your story is certainly not the first one i have heard, and the biggest find story has been told to me from various contacts. I agree with the sentiment, the area is unique, and the possibilty of multi tcf is absolutely on the agenda, its now down to the Kunde 3 and SL 2 to prove the theory right.

I am confident that Kunde 3 is not a lost well, and the 60 odd days of drilling has been done to carefully manage and ensure success and learn everythiung they can from the geology. conocophillips are never in a rush, this project is not on a rush order, they will put wells on ice for years and have done so, absolutely no problem..

SL1 (the test well) will confirm the field, its a stepping stone.

I look at it this way, and this is entirely my view and could be completely wrong..

conocophillips puts in 2 test wells called Kunde 1 and Kunde 2 on the west side, specificly targeting the the austin chalks and edwards, 

on the east Sugarloaf 1 is drilled as a test well. to test the upper section and the lower sands.

both camps have similar costs, both sides share the knowledge.

After the test wells were completed, with kunde 2 being lost, they both put in a step out well with 5000 foot horizontals. SL2 and Kunde 3.

next phase is the massive ongoing drilling program.

The underlying significance of the success of the 1 tcf or multi tcf or whatever it is, relies absolutely on the geology and the success of the horizontals..

i am with you on this one rolitosser, lets keep this on the aussie boards..


----------



## Agentm

i noticed another 24 odd new leases for karnes county again overnight, no TCEI ones..

just was looking at ALL LEASES (including TCEI) in live oak and karnes.. you can see the areas where we are is less activity as we had a lot of leases already by janauary..

there were 100's more last year from TCEI in both counties.. these are just from january..  you see clusters and activity on the maps..

kinda get that feeling we are in the middle of a real hot spot???


----------



## sbop

534,376 @ 0.5400  
Weird activity. Possible that the guy selling at 0.54 could have had a poorly set up stop loss or conditional order?


----------



## Ken

It was a crossed trade.

I saw it.


Not sure what to make of it.

I wanted in at 54 cents.

But no go.

Bugger!


----------



## Agentm

its all over now...

clear air and now back into free trade mode.. 

sick and tired of 3 days of ground hog day...  

but they have left the building!!


----------



## daeff

I am pretty sure that the xt was the last of the recently left employee holdings..........you can confirm as the buyer was from ABNamro in bris...
I think the lid has now been taken off the sp and I think we should be back into the 60's in no time.


----------



## Agentm

the brisbane buyer has been waiting for some time to enter.. good to see he got a good price..

back to free market trade and name your price!!


----------



## Metron

Interesting Comments... I had been wondering for the last couple of days if it was the Ex-Employee Shares being pumped through.

Not too sure if I am willing to think to hard about what an Employee dumping stock this close to what we believe to be the "Eleventh Hour" really means.  Surely this person would be aware of what is happening over there.  Why not just wait a week or two?

I was led to believe that the purchaser was an already large share holder just topping up... Are the facts different?

Are ABNamro closer to the action than others for any reason?

Hrrrmmmmm my comfort level just moved a little...

Look forward to hearing some comments!


----------



## Agentm

Metron said:


> Interesting Comments... I had been wondering for the last couple of days if it was the Ex-Employee Shares being pumped through.
> 
> Not too sure if I am willing to think to hard about what an Employee dumping stock this close to what we believe to be the "Eleventh Hour" really means. Surely this person would be aware of what is happening over there. Why not just wait a week or two?
> 
> I was led to believe that the purchaser was an already large share holder just topping up... Are the facts different?
> 
> Are ABNamro closer to the action than others for any reason?
> 
> Hrrrmmmmm my comfort level just moved a little...
> 
> Look forward to hearing some comments!




nerves..???

we just saw the brokers let the shackles off and the share traded finally into free territory.. 

nothing has changed..

absolutley cant wait for the next few days to arrive..


----------



## cathald1

agentm
I am just going to keep my mouth shut in future  and stay away from the wine and WEB combination lethal specially when recounting info


----------



## Agentm

cathald1 said:


> agentm
> I am just going to keep my mouth shut in future and stay away from the wine and WEB combination lethal specially when recounting info





as i said before,  i think your sinceer.. i doubted your story on the basis it was a bit risky.. i was unsure about you posting it on a BB..

i have PM'ed you so if you want to answer that feel free.. this site allowes for mmessages between posters..

There is little doubt the conocophillips interest is purely on the multi tcf potential of the sugarkane..  i hope they achieve it and develop the field.. and from all indications, its about to unfold..

great to see EME do so well also..


----------



## Metron

Agentm said:


> nerves..???
> 
> we just saw the brokers let the shackles off and the share traded finally into free territory..
> 
> nothing has changed..
> 
> absolutley cant wait for the next few days to arrive..




Thanks Agent,

I just can't get inside the logic of someone who has been on the payroll deciding to dump Half a Million shares (~30% below where they were two weeks ago) only days or weeks away from grand news... Unless they know something we all don't!

Are you guys "in the trade" certain of the destination of the shares being ABN in Brisbane?

If it was a cross trade would that mean the selling broker was from ABN Brisbane too?

If so why would an employee presumably from Perth use a Brisbane broker..!? Is there something to read into that?

Don't get me wrong... On the surface I am still a firm believer. All the evidence still stacks up... Why commit to spending a few Million Dollars drilling SL2 before "officially" testing SL1!?

But as I said that is all on the surface... or 12000' below!

Maybe I am trying to read between the lines too much here... 18 months of jitters and nervous ticks coming to the surface perhaps!?

METRON


----------



## Agentm

your spooked easy..

if your unsure you have to re evaluate. All investors have differnet strategies.. mine is simple, once the 16 wells are done, re assess..
in the mean time i have lots of research still to do, believe it or not!!

Today will be extremely interesting.. i will highlight a part of the last announcement that is specific..  that the tesing of SL1 is either commenced or will be in the coming 24 -48 hours imho...  if ADI and TCEI expected the testing to commence next week it would say "*testing to commence during the last week of this month*" and if it was delayed i would expect they would have qualified any further delay in a mid week announcement, and we did not get one, so i assume they are commencing the testing.. so it may be we are testing already.(maybe).

has anyone noticed any changes in volumes or values of trades on any of the jvps lately???



Adelphi Energy has been advised by the Operator of the Sugarloaf Project (Texas Crude Energy, Inc) that testing of the Cretaceous aged carbonate zone in the Sugarloaf-1 well is now expected to commence *by the last week of this month* due to a delay with the availability of the frac and testing equipment required to undertake this next well operation. 
 

so if you are jumping ship, you have little time left,, and good luck,, if you getting in... the long awaited journey up with the sp is about to commence imho..

DYOR and all imho


----------



## Evangeline

Metron,

I also fail to see the logic behind someone dumping at least half a million shares just before an announcement is due unless they are expecting bad news.  

If indeed the seller was the ex-employee who cancelled their 1 million options as well, you would think they would be more in the know than your average punter!

I am yet to meet the person who doesn't like to make money - so why sell now?  

Eva


----------



## nioka

Evangeline said:


> Metron,
> 
> I also fail to see the logic behind someone dumping at least half a million shares just before an announcement is due unless they are expecting bad news.
> 
> If indeed the seller was the ex-employee who cancelled their 1 million options as well, you would think they would be more in the know than your average punter!
> 
> I am yet to meet the person who doesn't like to make money - so why sell now?
> 
> Eva



The only other logical reason is a margin call. With all the speculation and hype this stock has received I would expect that some are geared to the hilt with the hope of a get rich quick investment and we all know that hasn't happened. Time runs out for those with borrowed money,rising interest rates and a falling market. I'm sure there are a few followers on this forum who have their fingers crossed this week.


----------



## daeff

Hang on everyone......selling could be for any reason and has anyone thought that in taking on a new job there could be some capital required...or that selling stock that you own at that point in time is necessary.... who knows but you have to sell at some point and there was an eager buyer at the other end of the XT....

Its all about kunde 3/ SL1 & SL2 and reserves..... EME was up another 15% last night and fast retracing lost ground....... 

The research posted here is great and hope it keeps coming....only a metter of days now


----------



## Agentm

interesting... people are convinced of this story yet no facts behind it..

so your saying this alleged employee is insider trading then..

i am sure if thats the case, ADI will notice early next week and the relevant authorities notified, and the employee would need to answer for it.

so what is the news that this employee knows all about?? surely if poeple are being told the employee knows things and is getting out, they would also know the bad news.. so what are the facts behind his decision to jeapordise his position in the new company he has gone to?

i am happy to believe this story if someone actually presents a case as to why this guy is behaving in this manner..


----------



## Agentm

just saw these 10 leases go through overnight at theses locations by TCEI..


all imho and dyor


----------



## Metron

Hi All,

I hate conspiracy theories, however I am a believer that where there's smoke there is fire.  And I am wondering if this may be a small whiff of smoke...  Still nothing to hang your hat on though.

I am beginning to wonder about the certainty of the Cross Trade.  I called the broker I use this morning and they claim that is takes them 3 days to be able to even see the brokers evolved and that any information beyond that is very sketchy.

So, unless someone can say with certainty otherwise I assume it is nothing more than suspicion that the large chunks of stock belonged to the Ex-Employee.  And therefore maybe all is well.

However... AgentM alluded that he was aware of the purchaser and it appeared at the time that others were firmly of the belief that the shares in question did belong to the ex staffer and that ABN Brisbane were somehow evolved.

As I said in my earlier post, On the surface EVERYTHING ELSE all still looks dandy and I *think* I am still of the belief all will be well...

I sincerely trust no one takes my thoughts the wrong way here... and like I said before too, this could be a manifestation of what I like to call Sugarloaf Syndrome!


----------



## Agentm

Metron said:


> Hi All,
> 
> I hate conspiracy theories, however I am a believer that where there's smoke there is fire. And I am wondering if this may be a small whiff of smoke... Still nothing to hang your hat on though.
> 
> I am beginning to wonder about the certainty of the Cross Trade. I called the broker I use this morning and they claim that is takes them 3 days to be able to even see the brokers evolved and that any information beyond that is very sketchy.
> 
> So, unless someone can say with certainty otherwise I assume it is nothing more than suspicion that the large chunks of stock belonged to the Ex-Employee. And therefore maybe all is well.
> 
> However... AgentM alluded that he was aware of the purchaser and it appeared at the time that others were firmly of the belief that the shares in question did belong to the ex staffer and that ABN Brisbane were somehow evolved.
> 
> As I said in my earlier post, On the surface EVERYTHING ELSE all still looks dandy and I *think* I am still of the belief all will be well...
> 
> I sincerely trust no one takes my thoughts the wrong way here... and like I said before too, this could be a manifestation of what I like to call Sugarloaf Syndrome!





if  the ex employee is trading with inside knowledge, then so be it, ADi will sort it out.. I for the life of me cant see why you would take a post into a new company and jeapordise your position there by such an act.. employees are only allowed to sell in certain trading windows.. 

you need to present proof its an ex employee, proof the employee knows something, and its unfair to assume that a cross trade belongs to an individual.  Why dont you ask ADI who the employee was, ring the company he is working for, and talk to him? 

next the massive cross trades in EKA are going to be his as well!!

please post some evidence.. and ask those that tell you its the ex employee why they ont know the bad news that allegedly is happened!!

you are really casting some grave allegations of the character of the employee, which is unfair, and i dont believe a word of what your saying.. 



sorry, i think your wrong...


----------



## Broadside

It used to be that brokers could see the other brokers involved in the buying and selling via SEATS screen (used by the SEATS operators) because each buyer or seller is identified by a broker code.  Haven't worked in the industry for some years but I still believed brokers could see who else is in the market as before, unless rules have changed?  so they ought to know who did the crossing.


----------



## sam76

If the news is bad, then why has only one person (on the inside looking out) sold?

Surely we would be seeing all the jvp's fall faster than a groom's pants on his wedding night if that was the case.

my undeducated


----------



## Agentm

if its the employee... which it could be.. 

what connects the cross trade to proof that there is any problem in the chalks?

TCEI just put through 10 more leases, and your saying an employee leaving ADI is trading on inside knowledge...

I am not entering into this debate any further, if there is proof that brokers are telling people its the employee then that firm needs to examine its staff and its practices.. thank christ i dont use brokers!! this reinforces the reason why i dont trust them.. so if any of you guys trade through them, they will tell others about it!! great,,, love it,,

i dont believe the hype, i wait for the results and for the 16 well forward drilling program, and refuse to believe this broker fed rumour!!

BTW the employee would read this site and HC,, so good luck to the broker firm trying to explain this one!!


----------



## mfunksta

I haven't posted here before, but have also been doing my research and have been greatly intrigued by the posts here.  Have especially enjoyed the posts by agentm and sushi.  
I have been thinking, looking at the share prices and options of ADI, EKA and AUT, that ADI is probably the best value of the 3 jvp's at the moment.  

Due to its cash reserves, amount of total shares and options issued and value of its stock, I speculate that its exposure to "the kane" would be proportionately greater that the other two.

Opinions?


----------



## resourceboom

I believe that ADI is most likely the best managed company.

EKA is currently a SL/SK only prospect, and AUT is in many TCEI drills. EME is UK so I haven't looked into its others projects.

But I think the best leverage is through EKAO! But of course with more leverage comes more risk, and downside should the unthinkable happen and the field balls up!!


----------



## Broadside

resourceboom said:


> I believe that ADI is most likely the best managed company.
> 
> EKA is currently a SL/SK only prospect, and AUT is in many TCEI drills. EME is UK so I haven't looked into its others projects.
> 
> But I think the best leverage is through EKAO! But of course with more leverage comes more risk, and downside should the unthinkable happen and the field balls up!!




I agree.  EKA is basically worthless if Sugarkane is a dud.  Turkey is still ongoing but little chance of success has been factored in.  Holding plenty of EKAO and EKA and also some ADI but ADI definitely has much better downside protection and the best management.


----------



## Agentm

just got a revised scouting report..

TCEI put out another 15 leases right next door to ours.. (or part of ours??)

 so the total so far, as its being processed, *is 25 leases*,, not just the 10 i mentioned before 

i believe this is the hold up for the SL2 testing, and we should start immediately..

i also believe its the hold up for kunde 3 news, as there is now no need to keep it under wraps,  and that news will possibly surface in the very near term..

lets hope i am right..

all imho and DYOR


----------



## nioka

mfunksta said:


> have been thinking, looking at the share prices and options of ADI, EKA and AUT, that ADI is probably the best value of the 3 jvp's at the moment Opinions?




I hold both ADI and AUT. ADI is probably the better bet for the "sugars". I hold AUT as insurance if the sugars are not all that good because AUT has some other interesting plays. As the relationship, price wise, changes then I also change my ratio between the two. At times the ratio has been almost 2 to 1. Then AUT becomes the far better bet. At the moment almost 1 to 1 so ADI is favoured. Because of this, last week I sold AUT and bought ADI.


----------



## Agentm

i gather its not sinking in around here what the leases are for and what they mean.. these leases are substantial and deserve to be understood in the context of why news is simply being so gagged..

Survey William T. Hatton ET AL  A-174            AWilliam T. Hatton ET AL

this is little beauty just came through.. now we are talking 803 acres here!! and obviously hard fought for.. this particular lease is listed in Bee but extends into liveoak..

reality check here,, the conocophillips leases are about 600 odd acres..

its about 6 miles south from kunde 1 & 3 

can you understand why no kunde 3 news is surfacing??? its all about the acreage..

time to burn that credit card and go all in!!!  

i think its all about to happen...

all IMHO and  dyor


----------



## mfunksta

Thought seeing as I was on a roll I'd post another.

This excerpt from the EME website:

*"The main technical risk to the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect is the preservation of porosity at a depth of greater than 17,000 ft (5,200m). At these depths in most basins of the world, reservoir quality porosity and permeability is usually too low to be productive. However, in the Gulf Coast Basin of the USA (especially Texas and Louisiana) there is abundant production from fields at these depths. Published data indicates that in excess of 21 TCF of gas has been produced to date from approximately 350 “deep” onshore fields in the Gulf Coast Basin area at an average well depth of 5,200m. 

The possibility of preservation of porosity and permeability in the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect has been improved by early structural growth, thereby maximising the chance of trapping natural gas early in its history and retaining the original reservoir porosity and permeability."*

Agent m:  You are obviously convinced that the porosity will be astounding, but could please explain (or refer me to) your reasoning if it is more extensive as above (which I assume it is).


----------



## Broadside

mfunksta said:


> Agent m:  You are obviously convinced that the porosity will be astounding, but could please explain (or refer me to) your reasoning if it is more extensive as above (which I assume it is).




Couch referred to outstanding porosity in the Austin Chalks last September, which is why everyone is so bullish on the secondary targets.  What Couch said at the time was dismissed by some, but everything that has happened since has vindicated his views.

=======================================================

http://www.couchoil.com/daily1.asp

Subject: Sugarloaf 1st Phase Good

Date: September 29, 2006


Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success

We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.

Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.



*The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.*



The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.



The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’



The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.



This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’


----------



## fflintoff

Evangeline said:


> Metron,
> 
> I also fail to see the logic behind someone dumping at least half a million shares just before an announcement is due unless they are expecting bad news.
> 
> If indeed the seller was the ex-employee who cancelled their 1 million options as well, you would think they would be more in the know than your average punter!
> 
> I am yet to meet the person who doesn't like to make money - so why sell now?
> 
> Eva



As far as well testing is concerned an ex employee has no more of an advantage than an average joe i.e. everyone just has to sit pretty & wait for the results.

mfunksta,
The JVP are not considering the deep sands at the moment but may well return there in a different location in the medium term according to AUT & EME.


----------



## Agentm

mfunksta said:


> Thought seeing as I was on a roll I'd post another.
> 
> This excerpt from the EME website:
> 
> *"The main technical risk to the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect is the preservation of porosity at a depth of greater than 17,000 ft (5,200m). At these depths in most basins of the world, reservoir quality porosity and permeability is usually too low to be productive. However, in the Gulf Coast Basin of the USA (especially Texas and Louisiana) there is abundant production from fields at these depths. Published data indicates that in excess of 21 TCF of gas has been produced to date from approximately 350 “deep” onshore fields in the Gulf Coast Basin area at an average well depth of 5,200m. *
> 
> *The possibility of preservation of porosity and permeability in the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect has been improved by early structural growth, thereby maximising the chance of trapping natural gas early in its history and retaining the original reservoir porosity and permeability."*
> 
> Agent m: You are obviously convinced that the porosity will be astounding, but could please explain (or refer me to) your reasoning if it is more extensive as above (which I assume it is).






it was answered for me..

what you posted for the hosston sands was correct, EME have announced what they found since,, the well flowed at sub commercial rates..

suagrkane is 11500 feet,, and the porosity is fine as confirmed by couch oil.. suagrkane produces from the xto field in the north and kunde 1.. porosity is well known.. its all about the kunde well delivering!!

you cannot compare the sands at 21000 feet to the chalks at 11500 - 12300..  if you think they are one and the same your making a grave mistake..

but the second part of the statement has broader and very critical impacts to the sugarkane in another way.. maybe at a later date i might elaborate.. but lets just say the chalks are impacted by the unique geology there..

cheers..


----------



## Evangeline

Agentm - you suggest that news has been gagged while TCEI secured acreages.   In other words the company knows that Sl1 and Sl2 are highly prospective, but just how prospective has been kept a secret.  How would they be able to keep this from getting out for over a year?

Is it possible that a well only a few km from Sl1 could be productive and not have similar properties?


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Agentm - you suggest that news has been gagged while TCEI secured acreages. In other words the company knows that Sl1 and Sl2 are highly prospective, but just how prospective has been kept a secret. How would they be able to keep this from getting out for over a year?
> 
> Is it possible that a well only a few km from Sl1 could be productive and not have similar properties?




your questions will be answered next week..

couch oil is your answer.. read  the above references...


----------



## resourceboom

Adelphi Energy Limited has received a further update from the Operator of the Sugarloaf
Project (Texas Crude Energy, Inc. - "TCEI") on the timing of the upcoming testing and
drilling program for this project.
Due to rescheduling by the contractor providing the frac and testing equipment
required for the Sugarloaf 1 well tests, that operation is now expected to commence
during the week of 10 September 2007.
TCEI has also advised that the rig contracted to drill the next Sugarloaf Project well
(Kennedy #1H) is currently on schedule to finish its drilling operations on a third party well
by early next month. On that basis the Kennedy #1H well is expected to spud by around
mid-September.
The timing for both operations remains subject to the timely release of the relevant
equipment from current third party operations as well as other factors outside of our
control such as weather conditions.
Further updates will be provided upon commencement of these operations.


----------



## fflintoff

resourceboom said:


> Adelphi Energy Limited has received a further update from the Operator of the Sugarloaf
> Project (Texas Crude Energy, Inc. - "TCEI") on the timing of the upcoming testing and
> drilling program for this project.
> Due to rescheduling by the contractor providing the frac and testing equipment
> required for the Sugarloaf 1 well tests, that operation is now expected to commence
> during the week of 10 September 2007.
> TCEI has also advised that the rig contracted to drill the next Sugarloaf Project well
> (Kennedy #1H) is currently on schedule to finish its drilling operations on a third party well
> by early next month. On that basis the Kennedy #1H well is expected to spud by around
> mid-September.
> The timing for both operations remains subject to the timely release of the relevant
> equipment from current third party operations as well as other factors outside of our
> control such as weather conditions.
> Further updates will be provided upon commencement of these operations.




Last edited by resourceboom : Today at 05:12 PM. Reason: removed whinging 

Were you thinking about the poms again ?


----------



## Agentm

so now that cross trade looks damn suspicious..

up until now i had no idea the news was about, came as a shock,, its obvious various operators knew as they were selling hard today. but in light of the fact the bad news is outn the transaction yesterday does indeed raise my curiosity.

must be a case of someone having the golden touch and damn fine luck..

Due to rescheduling by the contractor providing the frac and testing equipment  required for the Sugarloaf 1 well tests, that operation is now expected to commence *during the week of 10 September 2007*.

time to leave the share in the bottom draw.. unless some news breaks in the mean while.. 

16th is the real date they are delaying to btw...


----------



## Evangeline

It has been very bad weather over there!  Why is it such bad news and why do you think it will actually be 16th September?

Eva


----------



## fflintoff

ARQ 2007 annual report released a few moments ago :-

“The Company continued its support for its associated company, Adelphi with participation in a rights issue undertaken by Adelphi and through the exercise of 8,750,000 options in Adelphi at an exercise price of $0.25 per option. The exercise of these options took ARC’s interest in Adelphi from 26.3% to 32.4%. Adelphi’s participation in the Sugarloaf project in the onshore Gulf of Mexico Basin in Texas has resulted in what could be a substantial gas and condensate discovery which is currently undergoing appraisal.”

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Appendix 4E - Annual Report 2007.pdf


----------



## Evangeline

ARQ sounds very optimistic I must say. Seems like a good sign to me. I am not surprised that the hurricane would cause some delay in this instance.  

Whilst they did not get full brunt of the storm, it must still have been extremely wild weather over there.


----------



## nioka

Groundhog day all over again. Could be another chance for an AUT sale and a transfer of funds to ADI ( or maybe the other way this time.) That is the silver lining that may be in this cloud as far as I'm concerned.


----------



## resourceboom

Nioka, would be interested to know how many more shares (in % terms) you reckon you'd be in the positive at no extra cost, just due to swapping between JVP's.  Never really bothered with it myself, but good to hear you've done well out of it?


----------



## nioka

resourceboom said:


> Nioka, would be interested to know how many more shares (in % terms) you reckon you'd be in the positive at no extra cost, just due to swapping between JVP's.  Never really bothered with it myself, but good to hear you've done well out of it?




Approximately 30% but it could have been more as I have creamed off a little profit and recovered my initial investment. I'm not normally a trader and prefer to invest but the opportunities here were too good to miss. When you look at market caps, comparative prices and % interest in sugar there is a regular changing of comparative value. I also traded up AGM share numbers by selling AGM and buying AUT on a rise then selling the AUT and buying back 60% more AGM over a 5 week period with the same funds. The ADI and AUT SP is not showing the same price fluctuations now as they were a few months ago but the oportunity still crops up as it did last week.


----------



## fflintoff

sugarkane & kunde

http://www.google.com/search?tab=nw&ie=UTF-8&rls=SUNA,SUNA:2006-34,SUNA:en&q=sugarkane & kunde

agentm seems to be dominating Google LoL!


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> Approximately 30% but it could have been more as I have creamed off a little profit and recovered my initial investment. I'm not normally a trader and prefer to invest but the opportunities here were too good to miss. When you look at market caps, comparative prices and % interest in sugar there is a regular changing of comparative value. I also traded up AGM share numbers by selling AGM and buying AUT on a rise then selling the AUT and buying back 60% more AGM over a 5 week period with the same funds. The ADI and AUT SP is not showing the same price fluctuations now as they were a few months ago but the oportunity still crops up as it did last week.




i admire the way you trade,

you have a great understanding of how and when to make a move,,  and well done for doing so  well..  as i say, you get my vote of respect,, i just accumulate adi,, whereas you jump and have done brilliantly..

well done.!!!


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> i admire the way you trade,
> 
> you have a great understanding of how and when to make a move,,  and well done for doing so  well..  as i say, you get my vote of respect,, i just accumulate adi,, whereas you jump and have done brilliantly..
> 
> well done.!!!




Thanks. However you can take most of the credit. I would not have had the confidence to make the trades without the research you have done on the Sugarloaf project. I was lucky getting into ADI in the very early days so I had a good start. Let us hope we all have a good finish. I haven't relied solely on them, they did help me to trade my way to a fair holding in AGM and AOE. ADI owes me nothing so any gain will be a bonus.


----------



## Agentm

i checked out the patterson 30 rig, and did a rig search, its on the fianl stages of a well for BOPCO, well EL COYOTE RANCH 4 .. putting in the production casing, so you never know, if they an finish that off and dissassemble and reassemble in 3 weeks??



nothing happens now, maybe a release of kunde 3 news in the next 3 weeks, but apart from that i cant see much action.. i dont have a problem waiting as there is nothing that can change history, but last friday was a touch dissappointed the news had be delayed until after close.. for me it was an unforseen delay, i didnt expect the jvp's would be out of the loop and not reporting delays earlier


time to leave it in the bottom draw for 3 weeks, and see what they do mid to late sept, perhaps they will drill Sl2, or maybe delay again, and pehaps we will get a test done on the lower sugarkane zones.. who knows? only TCEI and the jvp's as far as i know, there seems always to be more to each delay than meets the eye.. TCEI were still putting through leases late last week, indicating to me they are not quite ready, so the play must be significant for the delays to continue.. and we are certainly being kept out of the picture on all fronts right now.

one thing is certain in my mind, i will hold until the 16 wells are completed, and endure the frustration of these ongoing delays as best i can.


----------



## Agentm

just thinking about how TCEI has had to plan this SL1 well..

they knew fron the testing at Kunde 1 and losing kunde 2 that the sugarkane had some potential.. then when the JVP was formed they knew the SL1 well was never planning to go to to 21,000 feet..

the RRC permit plan TCEI submitted in july 2006 was for 14,500 feet,, yet the same plan for SL1 well in the EKA prospectus dated 2 MAY 2006 had a lot of detail in it.. on page 10 of the independant report by oilfield Development Specialists LLC, they had the schematic drilling plan for 21,000 feet..

TCEI were caught out a little, their normal operation would be to confirm the field, then perhaps just shut in the well at 14500 and buy acreage... but with 3 aussie jvp's, they had a problem, they have to explain to shareholders, how do you announce to the market the well supposedly drilling to 21,000 feet is being shut in without testing it?? and at 14,500 feet?? i see the option was to go to plan b..

at that time the well was re-permitted to go to 21,000 feet, late sept 2006!!!

sure the hosston sands needed looking at, but when you have just discovered a major discovery like sugarkane, how hard would it have been to be optomistic about the sands?? and risk the well???

Since the sands were drilled, we had every possible delay you can find, and at the same time TCEI has been working at full tilt to secure each and every lease in the area.. i can see only one reason for that connection..

i look at this whole operation and ask some questions..

how on earth can a small player like TCEI blitz all and secure each and every lease?

Why are they delaying still the well results and testing? 

imho the only way a minor player like TCEI can take out all opponents and secure all acres is by having a very powerful backer.. i cant think of any more powerful than conocophillips.. ADI have stated openly that TCEI got leases in direct competition with major oil companies... the only way they can beat them is to have a pretty powerful backer dont you think?

imho the delays are still paramount in the scheme of overall operational success of the project.. conocophillips would set certain goals and operational objectives, and i think they are perhaps just needing a few more things to happen before the 16 wells will be started..

as i said before,, this is all bottom draw until TCEI has done what it needs to, and in 3 weeks that may be enough time for things to be done..

you know every day i wonder how soon it will be before the jvp's will be allowed to benifit from the sugarkane, and i think they will benifit from it once they are allowed to.. this is a unique situation here,, someone stated here last week that the play could be according to conocophillips contacts, a major play in the US.. so thats multi tcf material then!! 

perhaps the suagrkane play is becoming obvious to many and the share wont have the luxury of tanking, as the buyers may see the value here right now.. means little to me as i am holding all the way now..

good luck to all holders... enjoy the 3 weeks of R&R,,


----------



## Evangeline

Is it possible that the decision to test Hosston first was made because it was known that it was less likely have commericial flow rates than the chalks - in order to put off competitors for the leases?


----------



## Broadside

Nice lateral thinking Evangeline!  They usually test from bottom to top but they could have chosen to test secondaries on the way down, instead they chose to press on and not do wirelines until they reached TD.  So maybe Hosston results threw a few off the scent.


----------



## Agentm

did you read the well schematic?? i am suprised no one comments on these things.. 

they had concern about losing circulation at 12300... (edwards???)

maybe by naming it the edwards, then signing up the austin chalks above it would be easier??  


these guys knew exactly what to expect..  and they found exactly what they expected to find.. 

they were hoping to make it through the play at best.. so best case senario was to use the patterson rig like they used at kunde 1 and drill a massive hole and try to control it as best as possible..  they managed to control it.. having hindsight from kunde 1 and 2 wells..

as i said before,, each and every thing you look at, every aspect of this well, the 5th or 6th well into the suagrkan, made it very very important for the well never to be tested as the data has be made public immediately through the RRC, and very very important for acreages to be signed..

draw your own conclusions.. i have drawn mine and i hold for the major discovery senario!!


----------



## Evangeline

I thought for sure the sp would tank badly today after the delay announcement.  It appears that holders are hanging on tight however, and we have no repeat of large holders dumping.  Thank goodness for that.


----------



## tarzanhey

Evangeline said:


> Is it possible that the decision to test Hosston first was made because it was known that it was less likely have commericial flow rates than the chalks - in order to put off competitors for the leases?





My we are suspicious arent we? - actually I have been thinking that for some time and stopped myself going too strong on the idea "conspiracy theories" as it seemed a bit unlikely. But lets just say the chance of a distraction from the main objective may have been a golden opportunity to keep it all underwraps ---------------- for a year!!!

how much acreage do they have now????? lots


----------



## Ken

AGENT IF THIS COMES OFF. AND THE SHARE PRICE GOES FROM 60 CENTS TO $2 YOU WOULD BE PAYING YOURSELF A WOPPING $2.45 AN HOUR.

YOU HAVE PUT HEAPS OF RESEARCH INTO THIS STOCK.

Surely you must be filthy knowing that other stocks have taken off, and your racking your brain, trying to figure it all out.

TLSCA have given better returns over the last 12 months.

Just a thought....


----------



## Agentm

800 bcf is worth $6.50 a share.. a few tcf and i think i will be selling my lot at a different price to yours..

ken dont concern yourself about me on any level ok. i am a big boy and can look after my own affairs..  i am posting as i am interested in the stock, and not posting here for advice....  if others gain something so be it.. a lot of people resent my research,, and become very personal.. 

there are many stocks that have gone up,, and many that go down,, hindsight is a wonderful thing ken, i hope you get wonderfiully rich with it.., but you dont need to teach me anything i think i can clearly realise, my next stock i roll into is still waiting for me.. after that, and infact after this share, i dont have to worry about a thing.. 

if the delays over the sugarkane discovery were over a 50 bcf play i would be long gone.. i invested for a certain outcome, and will sell when the share reaches that point.. 

thanks for you remarks, and again i dont need you to be concerned at all about anything to do with me ok!!

until something changes the fundamentals of the research i have done, and wont change my strategy..

cheers


----------



## Ken

No worries agent.

Just being a bit cheeky

I am sure you have dominated the markets for years.

I have just seen you on ADI for a while. I hope it pays off for you and me!


----------



## Agentm

ken i dont mind discussing the issues concerning adi and the massive sugarkane play.. it has nil to do with me personally. the hydrocarbons have been there a long long time,, and the TCEI / conocophillips processes there interest me.

some plays your guessing if there is anything there,, this play you trying to guess how many tcf will be there.. thats why i stay in it.. conocphillips dont do this sort of thing for nothing..  they dont drill dry holes, and they have not drilled a dry hole here so far.. for me thats whats it all about,, conocophillips and multi tcf.. nothing else!! i research to make sure i am still getting the right signs that its all on track..


----------



## resourceboom

Agentm, Don't want to mislead any newbies, saying 800bcf is worth 6.5 is wrong imo.

ADI has approx 15% NRI, so 800bcf = 120bcf for ADI.
At current gas prices, approx US$5.7 ADI share price would probably valued at about AU$2 per BCF once proven, so $240M mkt cap or approx $2 (as over 100M shares)

So 6.5 would have to be potentially in ground value (different to saying $6.50 per share)

unless you mean 800BCF, plus rich liquids   but that should be said differently.

Sorry for rambling, all the best folks!!



Agentm said:


> 800 bcf is worth $6.50 a share.. a few tcf and i think i will be selling my lot at a different price to yours..


----------



## daeff

I am a little confused here regarding NRI

I understand that ADI has for all depths a 20% share and until intial expenses are returned, access to 25%....

What is the 15% NRI you refer to... I may be the ignorant one here.


----------



## resourceboom

Hi, yeah, was quoting figures off the top of my head, may have been off slightly.

There are many different % figures that are available, have been mentioned in announcements before somewhere.

PI -> Paying Interest
WI -> Working Interest
NRI -> Net Revenue Interest

When explorers farm in to a prospect, they pay a set % (PI)
But they only get a working interest % (WI)
Then there is often other royalties to landowners etc, and you are left with (NRI)

Someone who has the real figures for ADI SL JVP may be able to help here,
actually I think it might be a bit higher then 15% for ADI. Think it might have been between 15 and 20 ??

Just looked up ADI website:

Terms of Adelphi’s Farm-in Deal 
Farm-in terms for Adelphi are modest at 1.25 for 1 for any costs in relation to the first well and associated prospect leasing costs. 

The net revenue interest (NRI) across the various existing prospect leases ranges between 71% and 75% after allowing for royalty payments to landowners and third parties. In a success scenario Adelphi will receive 25% of the NRI until payout of its farm-in costs after which Adelphi’s share of the NRI will be based on its 20% working interest.


----------



## Agentm

hey resourceboom..

i look at the brokers report from last year on the ADI webpage for the SL1  and what they said the value is for the 800 bcf hosston sands would be..

if you look at that, are they calculating the values correctly? and if not what do you feel is misleading there..

i have been working the values off what they calculated up until now, but would be interested in your opinion on say what a p10 1tcf would achieve to the sp for adi..


----------



## resourceboom

Agentm said:


> hey resourceboom..
> i look at the brokers report from last year on the ADI webpage for the SL1  and what they said the value is for the 800 bcf hosston sands would be..
> 
> if you look at that, are they calculating the values correctly? and if not what do you feel is misleading there..




Hi mate,
Don't think the brokers report is misleading, but working off slightly different parameters. ie I believe when the report was written the spot gas price was around US$8 with a weaker AUD, compared to now, with approx US$5.7 and stronger AUD, so I think that would make a considerable difference in valuation.



Agentm said:


> i have been working the values off what they calculated up until now, but would be interested in your opinion on say what a p10 1tcf would achieve to the sp for adi..




As I've mentioned elsewhere I'd be stoked if they prove up 800BCF, and we get a $2 sp, especially if they come out with some great news before EKAO expiry time. 1TCF, will attempt to value it better when / if the time comes


----------



## Agentm

well if it drops off 25% to $6 for 800 bcf, then  1tcf looks enticing..  

i look at how much the gdn share increases for a well thats not even commercial,a and not likely to pay itself off,, and you say we wont get any value for 1 tcf???? you need to explain this a little for me, i am perplexed..

SL2 and SL1 will get some great figures up for us,, not the 1 tcf stuff,, but definately will point us in the direction of understanding how long it would take, and how many wells to get some great p10 numbers..

with conocophillips on the scene, i expect the development will be rapid..

i get the feeling the starters gun is raised, the jvp's are primed with cash,, just need the instructions to start..


----------



## mick z

hi guys,

if gas is worth $6.50 mcf that means 1bcf = $6.5mil 
times that by 800bcf then times that by 15% NRI, then divide that by 115 mil shares and you get $6.78 per share.

that would do me, and that's in usd

mick


----------



## nioka

mick z said:


> hi guys,
> 
> if gas is worth $6.50 mcf that means 1bcf = $6.5mil
> times that by 800bcf then times that by 15% NRI, then divide that by 115 mil shares and you get $6.78 per share.
> 
> that would do me, and that's in usd
> 
> mick




Great. If only there were no costs of production, directors take (including bonus options for performance). Plenty of companies have big turnover, spend a lot on dusters and have very little left for the shareholders. That is one of the reasons I have sold ARQ and this one is in the family. I'll sell at $2 and be happy.


----------



## Agentm

Arq's presentation they put out today..

lots of references to ADI...  they are getting very bullish, including ADI into future reserves...

enjoy

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Latest Corporate Presentation 28 Aug 07.pdf​

*​*​•*Disciplined international expansion through direct investment and Adelphi interest *​*
*
page 2


"Massive appraisal potential on both offshore projects and in Adelphi"

page 20  and nice graph with adephi starting to be calculated in there..​


ARC holds 32% of Adelphi Energy Limited​​​Floated by ARC on ASX as surrogate for high impact international ventures​​Market cap $70 million​​Operations in USA, Yemen, Timor Sea and Indonesia
Adelphi’s US operations have very high potential
Sugarloaf well –(SugarKaneField)
Carbonate play at ~12,000 feet with potential to extend over a large area already under lease (~20,000 acres leased).
Sugarloaf 1 well has potential pay of 28 meters. Similar to recent producing discovery nearby (SugarkaneField) -*gas with high liquid content*.
Testing of Sugarloaf 1 carbonate zones scheduled to commence in next few weeks
First horizontal well (Kennedy 1) spudding shortly
*Potential for major new play fairway in the area*​*Very high activity by major companies in adjacent leases*

page 26

if you look at ARQ's future reserves,, adlphi is suddenly appearing there too

page 28 

page 27 has kennedy 1h (SL2)  in october quarter.


----------



## resourceboom

would hate to have agentm disappointed if no-one comments on the arq pressie, so here goes 

page 26 very interesting if to scale: it appears ARQ potential share of SL could be around 2-3MMBOE. So then ADI share would be around 6-10MMBOE.  nice... 

An issue I have with MMBOE tho is when gas is conveted to oil equivalent it makes the figures look better due to conversion ratio.


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks for that Agentm.  Very interesting read - Arq has also put their money where their mouth is - exercising those 8 million options lately.

Looks like the sp is on the move too.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Thanks for that Agentm. Very interesting read - Arq has also put their money where their mouth is - exercising those 8 million options lately.
> 
> Looks like the sp is on the move too.




the arq share holding will be a safety net as far as i am concerned.. later!!

24th august

1​ARC Energy Limited​33,900,000​2​
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited4,678,827​
3​
SG Growth Equities Limited4,503,334​
4​
ANZ Nominees Limited 3,953,093​
5​Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited​1,637,536​6​
Mr Alexander Forcke1,516,667​
7​
Christine Mary Streitberg1,200,000​
8​
Detail Nominees Pty Limited 1,081,484​
9​
Mr Graham Douglas Riley & Mrs Anne Marie Riley 1,016,667​
10​
Rocket Science Pty Ltd 940,000​
11​
Fopar Nominees Pty Ltd 866,667​
12​
Michael Craft Pty Ltd800,000​
13​
Merryl Lynch (Australia) Nominees Pty Limited793,867​
14​
JJNA Super Pty Ltd716,667​
15​
Hot Springs Pty Ltd600,000​
16​
Mr Thomas Brian Cannon 600,000​
17​
Charrington Pty Ltd549,667​
18​
Manukey Pty Ltd 500,000​
19​Lippo Securities Nominees (BVI) Ltd​500,000​20​
Rocket Science Pty Ltd 500,000​



17th  august

1​ARC Energy Limited​33,900,000​2​
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited4,678,827​
3​
ANZ Nominees Limited 3,969,367​
4​
SG Growth Equities Limited3,503,334​
5​Yandal Investments Pty Ltd​1,641,667​6​
Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 1,630,536​
7​
Mr Alexander Forcke1,516,667​
8​
Christine Mary Streitberg1,200,000​
9​
Satinbrook Pty Ltd1,016,667​
10​
SG Growth Equities Limited 1,000,000​
11​
Fopar Nominees Pty Ltd 866,667​
12​
Rocket Science Pty Ltd 850,000​
13​
Michael Craft Pty Ltd800,000​
14​
Merryl Lynch (Australia) Nominees Pty Limited 781,967​
15​
JJNA Super Pty Ltd716,667​
16​
Hot Springs Pty Ltd600,000​
17​
Mr Thomas Brian Cannon 550,000​
18​
Charrington Pty Ltd549,667​
19​Manukey Pty Ltd​500,000​20​
Lippo Securities Nominees (BVI) Ltd 500,000


*TOTAL*

*60,772,033*​


----------



## wallave

9​
Satinbrook Pty Ltd1,016,667​

Looks like old Satinbrook pty ltd was the one that offloaded last week down to 54c

Some nice interest this afternoon.  Heading in the right direction.


----------



## Evangeline

A few interesting changes in the list.  You will note that Satinbrook is no longer listed, but Mr Graham Riley now has the same number of shares.  


"Graham Riley (Chairman): a company associated with Mr Riley, Satinbrook Pty Ltd, has been. paid fees totalling $100000 (exclusive of GST) over the last two ...
www.giraliaresources.com.au/pdf/asx/28%20Jun%2007-Notice%20of%20Me"

So Satinbrook is associated with Mr Riley anyway.  Others have upped their holding somewhat.  Not sure if this is meaningful in anyway.


----------



## Evangeline

Yandal Resources is also no longer in top 20.  If you do a search on them they are major shareholders in Giralia Resources - the company Mr Graham Riley is Chairman of - so some association there too.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Yandal Resources is also no longer in top 20. If you do a search on them they are major shareholders in Giralia Resources - the company Mr Graham Riley is Chairman of - so some association there too.




now i like the way that you think,, your smart, looking between the layers!!

lots of interesting moves,, plenty were ready to come in.. and one is listed twice??  rocket science???  maybe a typo?


----------



## Evangeline

No - Rocket Science Pty Ltd is not a typo - a google search reveals a few references to the company, mainly in association with The Trojan Capital Fund:

The Manager is wholly owned by Rocket Science Pty Ltd as trustee for the Trojan Capital Fund. The Trojan Capital Fund is controlled by Troy Harry and this ...
www.trojanequity.com.au/manager.html - 7k - Cached - Similar pages


Might be interesting to do a search on a few of these top 20 shareholders.


----------



## Evangeline

SG Growth Equities Limited is very interesting.  They have 4.5 million invested in Adelphi.  According to their website:

"SG Growth Equities Limited is a private equity fund established to create significant wealth through an actively managed portfolio of high growth potential small cap companies. 
SG Growth Equities is managed by St George Capital Pty Limited, a privately owned boutique investment company, whose directors have invested more than $4 million in the company. 

The St George Capital executive team has an established track record in accelerating investee companies through value-creating transitions. SG Growth Equities will seek a substantial shareholding of typically 5% - 20% in a targeted portfolio of 3 - 5 listed companies, which are undervalued by capital markets but which have clear and understandable significant growth potential. 

In each case, the Manager will aim to secure board level involvement and to pursue an active shareholder style, supportive of company management. Within investee companies, value transformation is expected to occur during a one to two year timeframe."

GET THIS - this is how they describe Adelphi under their heading "portfolio companies: -

"Adelphi Energy Limited
Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) is a Western Australia based petroleum exploration company listed on ASX (ASX code: ADI). The company's objective is to identify and acquire a well balanced portfolio of Australian and international oil and gas exploration assets, with a focus on frontier exploration areas which have the potential to add significant value for shareholders. 
During 2006, Adelphi will participate in two high impact onshore gas exploration wells in Texas, USA. *These comprise the Sugarloaf Prospect, a major international quality exploration play with potential reserves of several* TCF, and the lower risk New Taiton Prospect with multiple well-defined reservoir targets. 

During 2005, Adelphi successfully bid for two onshore exploration blocks in Yemen as part of an international joint venture group led by Oil Search Limited. Exploration activities on these blocks are expected to commence during 2006, with an extensive drilling program comprising at least seven exploration wells to kick off in 2007. 

Adelphi has a strategic alliance with ARC Energy Limited (ARC) via ARC's approximately 25% shareholding in Adelphi and a series of alliance agreements which provide Adelphi with access to ARC's technical, financial and administrative expertise."



The Executive Chairman - Patrick O'Connor is also a Director at Adelphi.


----------



## nioka

resourceboom said:


> would hate to have agentm disappointed if no-one comments on the arq pressie, so here goes
> 
> page 26 very interesting if to scale: it appears ARQ potential share of SL could be around 2-3MMBOE. So then ADI share would be around 6-10MMBOE.  nice...
> 
> An issue I have with MMBOE tho is when gas is conveted to oil equivalent it makes the figures look better due to conversion ratio.




The amazing thing I noticed about the ARQ report was that in charting the exploration potential for the company they rate the Canning basin 10 times that of Adelphi. Maybe with the relative share prices it makes me wonder if I should reconsider ARQ bearing in mind that I financed my early day ADI investment by selling ARQ. Maybe the chart isn't to scale. Any comments appreciated.


----------



## resourceboom

I too have fully sold out of ARQ, and I'd definitely look at getting back in, but will be waiting until they have some good firm discoveries in the Canning.


----------



## Agentm

i think a lot have left ARQ and loaded into the ADI.. i certainly took profit a long time ago and swapped over..

talking to some locals this morning,, the pioneer guys have been trying for 3 weeks to get a well set up close by in Bee county. they have never had an august like it before rainfall wise...so 3 weeks and now still unable to get it happening.. makes you wonder how they are going to get the patterson 30 rig broken up and over to karnes in a few weeks.. i definately expect further delays are high on the probability list..

eva..  i researched the top 20 before a few times... some very astute investors in there i think..
mr o'conner has moved on.. look at XBL, i think you will find he went there, he also set up a private investment fund to invest in both ADI and xbl.. 500k minimum entry if my memory serves me correct..  xbl is somewhere i will be investing one day soon,  been researching them over the past year a lot.. i like their style.. and their products are leading edge stuff, again high risk high reward!!


----------



## Evangeline

You are right Agentm - Mr O'Connor is no longer a director at Adelphi.  His private investment company is SG Growth Equities and yes it appears from their website that ADI and XBL are their main investments.

Mr Riley however, is also a director of Adelphi.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> You are right Agentm - Mr O'Connor is no longer a director at Adelphi. His private investment company is SG Growth Equities and yes it appears from their website that ADI and XBL are their main investments.
> 
> Mr Riley however, is also a director of Adelphi.




unlike the other jvp's where they by and large get given massive amounts of options,, the adi boys have invested their own hard earned cash here..  another reason why ADI will be very strategic on how and when they go to the market for capital , and they are not a fan of thinning out the value of the company.. 

mt riley suddenly sits in the top 10 with i million shares thank you very much,, he was never there before..  is there something happening out there perhaps that makes him want to put in for a cool 1 mill shares???

perhaps its something to do with a *potential for major new play fairway in the area !!!!!!!*

just a guess,, i mean i am pretty certain its the reason i am in it..

dyor and all IMHO


----------



## Evangeline

Yes - it doesn't look like the top 20 are dumping their shares - quite the contrary.  I had a look at XBL and bought some cheap options today too - .059c.  If its good enough for Mr O'Connor to have a boutique investment fund that only buys ADI and XBL, I reckon they might be a bargain atm.


----------



## chance fate

Doing the maths on the reserves in the arc presentation given 6-10mmboe ....

using:

1 barrel of oil equivalent      = 1 barrel of crude oil
                                = 5,487 cubic feet of gas *
* Natural gas is converted to barrels of oil equivalent using a ratio of
5,487 cubic feet of natural gas per one barrel of crude oil. This ratio is
based on the actual average equivalent energy content of TOTAL's natural gas reserves.

so 6-10 mmboe for arc * 3 roughly = 18-30 mmboe for adi * 5 = 90-150mmboe for sugarkane....

converting to Bcf using the conversion formula (assuming it converts totally to gas i.e. ignoring condensate)

90-150mmboe = 494-823 Bcf


----------



## fflintoff

RNS Number:9158C
Empyrean Energy PLC
29 August 2007


                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
                          ----------------------------

- TCEI JV Block A # 1 well reaches total depth
- Encouraging gas shows throughout the horizontal well
- Gas flares measuring up to 65 feet observed

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV
Block A #1 well has reached a total depth of 4,400 meters (measured
depth). Current operations are preparing to run casing.

The horizontal well has continued to encounter encouraging gas shows
in addition to fluorescence in the cuttings through to total depth.
Gas shows were observed over approximately 2,500 gross feet. Multiple
gas flares measuring up to 65 feet were observed over approximately
1,000 feet including an interval of about 600 feet that had a
constant gas flare.

Further updates will be provided as the timing for testing
operations is confirmed.


Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said: " The gas flares
encountered whilst drilling are particularly encouraging as the
drilling mud weight was raised to over 14 pounds per gallon and gas
flares and shows were still observed despite the heavier mud - we
look forward to the results of testing".


The information contained in this announcement was completed and
reviewed by the Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum
geologist.


For further information:
Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 /
+44 (0) 7791 892 509

Rod Venables / Cecil Jordaan
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746


----------



## tarzanhey

RNS BLOCK A

Empyrean Energy Sugarloaf Block A Update


 RNS Number:9158C
Empyrean Energy PLC
29 August 2007


                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
                          ----------------------------

- TCEI JV Block A # 1 well reaches total depth
- Encouraging gas shows throughout the horizontal well
- Gas flares measuring up to 65 feet observed

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV
Block A #1 well has reached a total depth of 4,400 meters (measured
depth). Current operations are preparing to run casing.

The horizontal well has continued to encounter encouraging gas shows
in addition to fluorescence in the cuttings through to total depth.
Gas shows were observed over approximately 2,500 gross feet. Multiple
gas flares measuring up to 65 feet were observed over approximately
1,000 feet including an interval of about 600 feet that had a
constant gas flare.

Further updates will be provided as the timing for testing
operations is confirmed.


Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said: " The gas flares
encountered whilst drilling are particularly encouraging as the
drilling mud weight was raised to over 14 pounds per gallon and gas
flares and shows were still observed despite the heavier mud - we
look forward to the results of testing".


The information contained in this announcement was completed and
reviewed by the Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum
geologist.


For further information:
Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 /


----------



## tarzanhey

tarzanhey said:


> RNS BLOCK A
> 
> Empyrean Energy Sugarloaf Block A Update
> 
> 
> RNS Number:9158C
> Empyrean Energy PLC
> 29 August 2007
> 
> 
> Empyrean Energy PLC
> ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
> 
> Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
> ----------------------------
> 
> - TCEI JV Block A # 1 well reaches total depth
> - Encouraging gas shows throughout the horizontal well
> - Gas flares measuring up to 65 feet observed
> 
> Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV
> Block A #1 well has reached a total depth of 4,400 meters (measured
> depth). Current operations are preparing to run casing.
> 
> The horizontal well has continued to encounter encouraging gas shows
> in addition to fluorescence in the cuttings through to total depth.
> Gas shows were observed over approximately 2,500 gross feet. Multiple
> gas flares measuring up to 65 feet were observed over approximately
> 1,000 feet including an interval of about 600 feet that had a
> constant gas flare.
> 
> Further updates will be provided as the timing for testing
> operations is confirmed.
> 
> 
> Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said: " The gas flares
> encountered whilst drilling are particularly encouraging as the
> drilling mud weight was raised to over 14 pounds per gallon and gas
> flares and shows were still observed despite the heavier mud - we
> look forward to the results of testing".
> 
> 
> The information contained in this announcement was completed and
> reviewed by the Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
> Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum
> geologist.
> 
> 
> For further information:
> Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman
> Conduit PR
> Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 /






Flintoff you are too quick for me ;-)

Anyway much pre open excitment in EME over in the UK.

Bodes well for us all.

Thanks Agentm for your excellent research into this whole venture.


----------



## Agentm

tarzan, this is just the begining, and the suagrkane took some effort to get through,  but remember the time slip, the well is always behind in the news..  whats missing from the rns is the usual "at 6pm texas time the operator was casing in with production casing" etc etc..

but i think the announcement is perhaps fairly up to date.. i will know shortly if its absolutely up to date..

there is so much news from ARQ and EME that you can see the whole operation is running according to plan..

again, if you dont get it bail now,, if you get it, and understand what multi tcf plays are, and how rare they are, and how rare it is for a junior explorer to get on the play with 20,000 acres, then enjoy and hold..

best of luck in whatever you decide..


----------



## HOMER J

Great looking announcement. EME now up 19%....

http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=EME&share=empyrean


think ill get some more ADI tomorrow......


----------



## hashertu

Agentm.  Can you please clarify something for me?
On page 27 of the ARC presentation, Sugarkane is labelled as being in the Wilcox Fm (fm is short for what?) and Sugarloaf 1 well is targetting a lower zone.
Are there two separate hydrocarbon targets in the 20,000 acres now under lease?
PS.  I am an EME shareholder.


----------



## Metron

Hi All,

Great response from the UK market regarding the EME Announcement (up ~30%), I am having a little trouble understanding how their news relates to Adelphi though...

I know EME is part of our J.V. with TCEI, EKA & AUT so I must be missing something...

How is EME's  "TCEI JV Block A # 1" related to our Sugarloaf's 1 & 2?

In their announcement they state..... "TCEI JV Block A #1 well has reached a total depth of 4,400 meters (measured depth). Current operations are preparing to run casing."..... Our Sugarloaf 1 has been in for "ages" and Sugarloaf 2 (Kennedy #1H) has not started yet...

What are EME referring to, because it sounds like their well is still under construction?

Can someone paint a quick overview for me?

Thanks!


----------



## Agentm

Metron said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Great response from the UK market regarding the EME Announcement (up ~30%), I am having a little trouble understanding how their news relates to Adelphi though...
> 
> I know EME is part of our J.V. with TCEI, EKA & AUT so I must be missing something...
> 
> How is EME's "TCEI JV Block A # 1" related to our Sugarloaf's 1 & 2?
> 
> In their announcement they state..... "TCEI JV Block A #1 well has reached a total depth of 4,400 meters (measured depth). Current operations are preparing to run casing."..... Our Sugarloaf 1 has been in for "ages" and Sugarloaf 2 (Kennedy #1H) has not started yet...
> 
> What are EME referring to, because it sounds like their well is still under construction?
> 
> Can someone paint a quick overview for me?
> 
> Thanks!




i am a bit staggered the connection isnt understood..

i suggest reading the arq presentation recently, the link is about a page back.. also the adi webpage has further info on the sugarkane play.

the play is extensive, we have 20,000 acres of it, and our well at Sl1 had extensive shows with massive pressure kicks..

the kunde 3 well is the first horizontal well that conocophillips has put in, ours, the SL2 well (kennedy 1H) is a replication of that one into the deep sugarkane zones..

you need to do some research i think! or just read the thread back a little, its well and truly been discussed in detail i think.. 

hashertu

wilcox formation.. 

and its not accurate.. the best i can tell is its chalks.. with the upper section being austin chalks.. the lower section is also chalk from my understandings.. and its called the sugarkane.. 

yes there are technically 2 different plays in the chalks,, one is high pressure and the other appears less charged,, both have high liquids.. and i think myself, that the two zones will be treated as seperate plays, and not drilled in the same well.. current focus is on the lower deeper section..can you think of any reason why???  i can..

is there more??? i believe there is, but am not really interested in them to be frank.. only sugarkane!!


----------



## Metron

Thanks for the reply AgentM, but you didn't address my question...

When EME talk about TCEI JV Block A #1 what EXACTLY are they referring to?!

And Yes I have bothered to read back through the Forum, but at 113 pages it is not hard to chew up an awful amount of time...

Anyways, Look forward to someone filling me in on this.  If not no problem either, just thought I would ask.

Metron


----------



## Agentm

Metron said:


> Thanks for the reply AgentM, but you didn't address my question...
> 
> When EME talk about TCEI JV Block A #1 what EXACTLY are they referring to?!
> 
> And Yes I have bothered to read back through the Forum, but at 113 pages it is not hard to chew up an awful amount of time...
> 
> Anyways, Look forward to someone filling me in on this. If not no problem either, just thought I would ask.
> 
> Metron





the well is a well being drilled in the sugarkane by conocophillips,, its called kunde gas unit1 well 3..  5000 foot horizontal..  eme were allowed to be part of the well by taking a share off TCEI.. if you look at the eme website the details are explained there..

eme are not allowed to call it what it is,, so its called mumbo jumbo well..

cheers.. hope it helps..


----------



## Metron

Agentm said:


> the well is a well being drilled in the sugarkane by conocophillips,, its called kunde gas unit1 well 3..  5000 foot horizontal..  eme were allowed to be part of the well by taking a share off TCEI.. if you look at the eme website the details are explained there..
> 
> eme are not allowed to call it what it is,, so its called mumbo jumbo well..
> 
> cheers.. hope it helps..




Cool Thanks!

So TCEI JV Block A #1 is Kunde 3!

From my understanding a well ADI has no financial interest in.  So the EME news is just further positive anecdotal evidence then!?

Thanks, I think I am up to speed with the wells in the area including the XTO wells to the north west of us, but have never had a handle on what the EME mumbo-jumbo block A jibber was all about.

Once again, Thanks!

Metron


----------



## cathald1

Metron said:


> Cool Thanks!
> 
> So TCEI JV Block A #1 is Kunde 3!
> 
> From my understanding a well ADI has no financial interest in.  So the EME news is just further positive anecdotal evidence then!?
> 
> Thanks, I think I am up to speed with the wells in the area including the XTO wells to the north west of us, but have never had a handle on what the EME mumbo-jumbo block A jibber was all about.
> 
> Once again, Thanks!
> 
> Metron








I think/Hope (as i am in ADI as well as EME) in the market tomorrow (tonight were i'm from ADI will be found guilty by association.


----------



## rolisatosser

From my understanding a well ADI has no financial interest in. So the EME news is just further positive anecdotal evidence then!?

As an eme holder and an adi holder let me say that it is far more than anecdotal.

You have to spend time coming to terms with this, it needs plenty of reading.  You must read.  (just to help you, just read Agentm's posts over the last few months)

Kunde3 has no aussie financial involvement, true.  But it is crucial to the ozzies. Crucial.  It is stage 1 of proving Agentm's research which has been proved to be spot on.

Crucial.

P.S.  Rol is a tosser


----------



## Agentm

Current operations are preparing to run casing.

Further updates will be provided as the timing for testing
operations is confirmed.

the announcement was as out of date as the previous one, written a long time after the fact, vetted and sanctioned by CP,, ARQ has been broadcasting the big prospects of ADI all over the shop

yet..... we see delays, and no time frames on future operations,, no comments like the casing operations will commence immediately, or as of tuesday 5pm casing was run to xxxx feet..

perhaps worth thinking about very very hard.. there is plenty Conocophillips can do and plenty they can simply choose not to do.. 

i wonder what they are up to?


i feel the better informed are waiting for some certain things to happen before entering, it seem the wiser ones are still sitting on the sidelines, Conocophillips can easily just put the whole show on hold for another year again if they want.. maybe they see better gas and oil price horizons in a few years? its really the unknown unknowns that are concerning the me as a holder.. CP can stop all op's and break the back of all the jvp's if they absolutely wanted to..

we have seen 12 months of delays, and now we see the EME well is talking about preparing to do things yet weeks after the real time announcement they dont appear to be doing it.. 

i understand the partners were told to cash up for the program,, but suddenly they are told to halt.. 

my attention is still on the kunde well, and also on whats happening around our jvp,, whats the hold up... leases?? weather?? 

i understand next week we will finally be educated as to how these plays actually look, which means conocophillips is allowing the jvp's to talk it up.. so leases must be signed..

so it leaves only the weather,, and the unknown unknowns in the jvp's..

curious.. and interesting times here.. 

anyone think this way, or is it just the the aftereffects of too much sun today playing havoc with my mind?? i mean our sp goes down after a brilliant announcement on the sugarkane.. that indicates lack of any support.. thats interesting to me and thats what i want to know about!!

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Broadside

AgentM, the volume wasn't huge today, I wouldn't read much into the weakness.  I think the situation we are in now, is that people who have been reading your excellent research (and the research of others on ADVFN thread) and are convinced of the story are now set, and have joined the dots and come to their conclusions.  News like we saw last night vindicates the story. 

But there are a whole lot more potential investors who may be keen to jump on soon but who aren't comfortable coming to those conclusions yet, they may be more conservative or risk averse - fair enough - and they are waiting to see news from the Aussie JVP's themselves before they take the "leap of faith" and invest.  I know you don't see it as a leap of faith, nor do I and a lot of other people already in these stocks and waiting, but some people prefer to wait.  

When they get the news from the horse's mouth I think that is when you will see the dam break.

That is how I see it anyway - you have the true believers already in, and a large number of spectators waiting for their own point of confirmation from the companies themselves.  Given the secrecy it is not surprising some are reticent to jump on board yet.

Anyway, keep up the great work, it is appreciated.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> Conocophillips can easily just put the whole show on hold for another year again if they want.. maybe they see better gas and oil price horizons in a few years? its really the unknown unknowns that are concerning the me as a holder.. CP can stop all op's and break the back of all the jvp's if they absolutely wanted to...



Heaven forbid. I guess it is a possibility. Oh well throw them in the bottom drawer and wait it out. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened in the oil industry. Where is J.R. Ewing when we need him. (A reference for the older television watchers.)


----------



## mfunksta

Broadside said:
			
		

> Anyway, keep up the great work, it is appreciated.




I agree.  Some of your research has had me marvelling like a broker's report never could.  Don't know how you do it.


----------



## nioka

mfunksta said:


> I agree.  Some of your research has had me marvelling like a broker's report never could.  Don't know how you do it.




There would not be a broker prepared to put as much effort into one stock as Agentm has done. I'll bet even ARQ, AUT and ADI management look up this thread to keep up to date themselves. They should give him a position on the board of all three. I say that in all seriousness.


----------



## Agentm

probably a case of heat stroke here.. so i guess i am becoming a touch impatient..

i dont think there would be one holder that isnt feeling the extreme frustration of the never ending delays..

from all incdications in ADI's release they say:

Due to rescheduling by the contractor providing the frac and testing equipment required for the Sugarloaf 1 well tests, that operation is now expected to commence during the week of 10 September 2007.

there is no way i can find out what frac crew and workover rig is used until after the fact..  I think ADI have gone to great lengths to explain when things will happen.. and obviously TCEI have a specific crew in mind and have rescheduled the time..

the CP delaying the wells and ops for years is basically not possible, its just me being frustrated,, it would be impossible logistically and operationally to do so..

i do wonder about the delays in testing K3,, and i think acreages could still be a factor there, and thats pure speculation..

If SL1 gets any more delays i think ADI will have such a backlash i fdoubt they will answer the phones (ala EME)

There has been 2 years of delays on SL1 well,, so for me i am absolutely not interested in any further delay..

just test the Sl1 well and get it over and done with,, either it flows lousy or it doesnt... it makes no difference,, the commercialiability of the play derives on the success of the horizontals in any case..

2 years is absolutely the end for me...  if they make this another 6  months i cant see the sp sustaining any levels like we see today..

bring on the tests and tell us we have or dont have flow...​


----------



## Agentm

just one last correction as i always get these depths wrong..

i was under the impression the 11700 feet was actual depth,, its measured depth.. which means in measured depth the K3 well and SL2 wells are actually drilling into the upper chalks play that kunde 1 is producing from....  due to the well being curved as its drilled , the actual depth is a lot higher..

so both K3 and SL2 are drilling the same depth, into a proven play, and  they are drilling the chalks..  and  they are drilling into the same levels as the Kunde 1 well is producing from..  so due to the measured depth and actual depth not be the same i again got the zones wrong in the chalks.. so sinceer apologies here..

so the SL2 well and K2 wells are really going to produce from the upper chalks not the lower..  and with kunde 1 producing so poorly, and the kunde 3 well doing what it did during the last 60 days of drilling,, its easy to see how verticals dont cut it in the chalks.. and its easy to see that horizontals can be very exciting if they drill into some nice chalks..

SL2 is going to test the area that was deepest, and that territory was according to the couch logs, gave the biggest kicks. yet kunde 1 tested that zone and found nothing much.

so is that play that Sl1 is about to test in the upper or lower chalks?

"For engineering reasons the deepest zone will be tested first. Should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance"​


----------



## wallave

> "For engineering reasons the deepest zone will be tested first. Should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance"​




Once testing finally starts the above quote will most likely equal more delays in getting results as it will be placed on "long term" production tests.  At least that would mean that they are of the beleive that it is commercial!

Just frustrated as most are with the long awaiting action in the share price.  I've held for over a year now and pretty keen for some results.


----------



## Lucky_Country

No more delays please we have waited long enough.
Oil  at record prices and moving into the northern hemisphere winter should keep prices high.
So much activity in the area we must be on a good thing frac and flow test asap I got bills too pay !


----------



## Agentm

*SUGARLOAF PROJECT

Sugarkane​*
London AIM market listed Empyrean Energy plc has released further information regarding a well they are participating in with Sugarloaf Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc on land nearby to the Sugarloaf JV acreage. Their release advises:

“​​_… the TCEI JV Block A #1 well has reached a total depth of 4,400 meters (measured depth).Current operations are preparing to run casing. The horizontal well has continued to encounter encouraging gas shows in addition to fluorescence in the cuttings through to total depth. Gas shows were observed over approximately 2,500 gross feet. Multiple gas flares measuring up to 65 feet were observed over approximately 1,000 feet i__ncluding an interval of about 600 feet that had a constant gas flare._”

The gas shows and flows while drilling are considered encouraging in terms of *the possible existence of permeable natural fracture systems in this productive formation* which extends over the Sugarloaf Joint Venture area and the significant adjacent acreage in which Aurora participates (approximately 20,000 acres at Sugarloaf, 20,000 acres at Longhorn and 6,000 acres at Ipanema).

*The existence of any such natural fracture systems is likely to improve the potential productivity of **horizontal development wells that intersect them*, including the soon to be drilled Kennedy-1H well
at Sugarloaf. ​

*Sugarloaf-1 Well​*As previously advised the upcoming testing and drilling program for this project is expected to  commence during the week of 10 September 2007.​*
SEEING IS BELIEVING!!! sorry, couldnt resist

Kennedy-1H​*The rig contracted to drill the next Sugarloaf Project well (Kennedy-1H) is currently on schedule to finish its drilling operations on a third party well by early September. On that basis the Kennedy-1H well is expected to spud by around mid-September.

The timing for both operations remains subject to the timely release of the relevant equipment from current third party operations as well as other factors outside of our control such as weather conditions.​Further updates will be provided upon commencement of these operations.


its all there... all you have to do is understand what they are saying..

they found some great stuff at kunde!!!  thats what they found.. and we are sitting on 20,000 acres of it!!!

enjoy


----------



## chance fate

good news agentm...  i liked the direct implication that Kennedy-1H is actually a development well..  not long to wait now... what's a couple more weeks when you've waited a whole year!!!


----------



## Agentm

as the sugarkane at kunde is a proven play, they can get away with it..  the Kunde 3 well is a wildcat, and to label the kennendy 1H a development well is interesting..

just checked the RRC permit for kennedy 1H,, yes indeed, it says sugarkane (creatacious) ...  so they are not wildcatting the well, its on a proven play as such and cant be a wildcat therefor..

i guess the market is missing the  importance of the Kunde discovery,, the fact the JVP's cant name it, and the conocophillips connection means the opportunity to get in while the shares are cheap is still there..

I think next weeks oil forum will add more to the share as information will no doubt come out there as well..

exciting weeks ahead in spite of the delays!! interesting days hey!!


----------



## chance fate

yeah agentm..  it's not an exploration well.. from aut's/tcei point of view with interests across longhorn, sugarloaf and ipanema, it would seem kennedy-1h would look like a development well ....  from adi/eka point of view there's still uncertainty over sugarloaf commerciality.....  or is there??!


----------



## Agentm

its been an interesting few weeks, even though on outside appearances nothing much has happened..

Firstly there was the Kunde 3 well announcements, it remained unmentioned for days then the JVP's decided the Kudne news was significant and relates to the sugarloaf well. so we finally get a late announcement days later to tell the markets here that something nice is happening in the conocophillips leases..

Then last week the 800 acres went through 2.5 miles south of the Kunde wells.. and we notice that the AUT announcement did not include these acres in their report.. what can you conclude from that?? why is ourJVP disinterested in 800 acres 2.5 miles south of a horizontal well that had 600 feet of continuos flares, and 65 foot flares and 40 foot flares and flares flares flares????

you have to wonder why.. surely the jvp would love such acreages...???

i have my own ideas about the TCEI boys and conocophillips alliance.. i tend to think the 20,000 acres we have is as much as we will get in the sugarkane proper... perhaps the rest is allocated elsewhere

I have the view we are indeed fortunate here to be on a potentially massive project with conocophillips with *the possible existence of permeable natural fracture systems in this productive formation* 

i looked at the terms the last acreage was leased out at last week,, lets just say its as good as it gets for a landowner.. and i think our JVP has been single minded in pointing out the importance of the "neighbours well"
If this whole show for all these years, with a worlds top 10 corporation conocophillips on board, with 2 wells shut in (one being pioneers meeks 1), one on production, one lost, and one drilled horizontally, and one sugarloaf 1 well just itching to be tested... that sure makes it tough for me to find any reason to sell right now,, i am holding here!!

with the conference about to start in WA,,, i think this week has potential to be an important week for holders...

also pointed out by JJF in the UK,, conocophillips exploration executive is giving a speech this week in the USA,, besides me, i think a lot of interested ears will be listening,, maybe something will be announced on their thoughts about the live oak play.. 

http://www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/news_releases/2007+News+Releases/083007.htm


last week we saw the AUT and EKA stock make substantial gains yet our share is doing the reverse,, it will be interesting to see if we will continue to fall throughout the next few weeks or not.. 

great buying opportunities are around as many understand the conocophillips wells are not allowed to be named, nor the multinational named by the jvp's.. but it will have to change soon and maybe this week there are opportunities for CP and the JVP's to announce some startling news,, i can see two forums where it would easy for them to do it.. lets see if anything comes out of it!!

my view is that CP wouldnt be wasting 5 years of its resources, time and effort on a 170 bcf play!! any oil & gas exploration executive making decisions to do that would be terminated,, i think CP only look at the largest plays left around the place.. a oil & gas giant thats also a top 10 corporation on this globe wouldnt be in on a 170bcf play in my view, i think these chalks are holding something else.. Cp in my view only would spend over 6 years and the vast sums of millions of dollars that they have on multi tcf targets..

all imho dyor


----------



## crab4t

Agentm  Is there going to be a live video or audio broadcast from the conference in Perth this week? If so where can I see details please? Regards Crabby.


----------



## Agentm

http://www.riuconferences.com.au/conferences/rec/

no high tech from what i can see..

just a bunch of explorers putting out their info, and a great time and opportunity to talk up some exciting projects..


just to keep you up to speed, its worth noting that our region has seen a spate of drilling into the chalks recently..

Keep a close watch on the HUGHES, DAN A. COMPANY, L.P well 45-055-33509

i have been watching this well for a while now, they started it with a permit to wildcat the 12300 region, they call the well the AUSTIN BROWN, they have drilled it vertical.. i have been scouting it for a month or two now, and on friday they announced a change and put in a permit to go directional off the same well as a wildcat to the same 12300 foot target.. 

Now these are not the first to go for the chalks,, in Bee county there are numerous, and all in the last 6 months i see frequently permits in all counties chasing the chalks, in live oak Pioneer did it with Meeks 1 and did it with another,  and shut them in as they found the suagrkane.. 

The Austin Brown well, and the sudden change on the permit shows me that 12 miles south, the 12300 region is very very interesting to an operator.. you normally dont go directional unless you get some good shows on the vertical..

For me its an indication that the 12300 region is being closely examined by every operator,, enduring, pioneer, dan hughes, amoungst others..

i remain very very excited about whats in our 20,000 acres,, interesting days ahead IMHO!!

DYOR


----------



## wallave

Nice little rises accross all eka/aut/adi today. Half decent volumne also.

With testing suppossibly starting next week more people getting themselves set.

Not long to go now.  Getting close.


----------



## tomcat

Guys,

Have a look at the AUT presentation:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/PriceResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=aut

I particularly like pg 11. Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (Upper sone of 3 - the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) is more than 3TCF and approx 5000MMBC 

Here we go:

Imagine if they find another play in the lower zones


----------



## Agentm

so its multi tcf in just one zone alone,, and we had the best shows in the lowest zone.. no wonder they are putting sugarloaf 1 on long test, that well is critical now, imagine deciding to drill to 21000 feet and risking the well with all that sitting there.. 

So how correct was couchy??  100% right... bless that texan!! he is going to make my fortune.

well then who is going to sell today???

how do you value a share thats got potentially 3 zones that could all be multi tcf?? 

Blue sky here we come!!


----------



## tomcat

tomcat said:


> Guys,
> 
> Have a look at the AUT presentation:
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/PriceResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=aut
> 
> I particularly like pg 11. Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (Upper sone of 3 - the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) is more than 3TCF and approx 5000MMBC
> 
> Here we go:
> 
> Imagine if they find another play in the lower zones




Just a further heads up, the reserves above are for the whole 200,000 acres...but its still exciting


----------



## ricey

Tom,

3TCf is just from 1 zone!

I have little doubt that we will get some amazing stuff from the other zones, especially zone 3 looks to be interesting.

Also don't rule out the Edwards!

I also believe that we could be close to the sweet spot with our acreage!

Which ever way I cut it I just don't see how ADI won't be a $5+ stock for those who can figure it all out and who are prepared to wait!

roll on the SL-1 testing!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Must be mad to sell out now ADI is in such a strong position with testing just days away the news is coming out this is a company maker.
$5 an almost certainty companies usually are conserveative with there estimates as well.
Blue sky here we come


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:


> Must be mad to sell out now ADI is in such a strong position with testing just days away the news is coming out this is a company maker.
> $5 an almost certainty companies usually are conserveative with there estimates as well.
> Blue sky here we come




GROUNDHOG DAY again. Seems I've heard this song before. Let's hope this time it opens up as I have a lot to gain too. After hearing the same tune for a long time there will be a lot of timid investors in ADI who will settle for a lot less than $5.


----------



## Agentm

*just thought i would post the stuff that i could gather up...*
remember we test zone 3 at SL1 which gave very strong shows and is very exciting in my view..  
sugarkane is a proven play, so the Zone 3 and then zone 2 results just add more to the equation!!




*Major Upside!**"Sugarkane"*
*Regional Play *

Production, well log analysis and seismic has defined a trap in the Austin Chalk Total trap area ~ 200,000 acres

Major companies hold a significant proportion of the balance of the trap area 

*Austin Chalk has produced 5TCF and 700MMBO from vertically fractured chalk in Giddings and Pearsall fields*​ 
*1930 –1970 vertical wells, mostly no stimulation*​

*1970 –1990 complete field coverage with vertical wells and fracs *​ 
*1990’s –horizontal re-development of the vertical drilled areas, high economic success based on better productivity and reserves*​ 
*Conventional Austin Chalk*​ 
*Has virtually no matrix porosity (~2%) –requires fracture permeability for productivity*​ 
*Is normally pressured and has low porosity*​ 
*In the vertical drilling phases only 20% of wells were successful due to the difficulty of hitting vertical fractures in vertical wells*​ 
*The economics of third stage conventional Austin Chalk wells are *
*better than for the Barnett Shale which is currently the major US producing formation. *​ 
*[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Background to Austin Chalk[/FONT]*[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]

*Background to Sugarkane Discovery*​*

The discovery well was drilled by Burlington 4 miles to the west of Sugarloaf and has been producing gas and condensate for the past year​​*​

*Both wells are central in a 50km x 20km+ trap where early structure on the Fashing Arch, formed by drape over the deeper Hosston structure drilled in the Sugarloaf-1), allowed migration of oil into the structure and preserved porosity*​ 
*Tight chalk forms the lateral seal all around the Sugarkane trap. *​ 
*[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Sugarkane gas-condensate discovery in the Austin Chalk has high porosity (6%+) and is overpressured[/FONT]*​ 
*[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Production, well log analysis and seismic has defined areas of interest in the Austin Chalk[/FONT]*[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]​

*Sugarloaf-1 logs and shows identical to the Sugarkane discovery well*​ 
*Reserve Potential -Sugarkane

Additional information from expanded operations will be requiredin order to make firm estimates of reserves and economics*

*Potential reserves have been estimated for the 200,000 acre "Sugarkane"field by TCEI.*

*The field is expected to be developed with horizontal wells*

*Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (upper zone of 3 –the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) *
*is more than 3TCF and approx. 500MMBC*

*Based on these reserve and production assumptions, Sugarkane has better economics than conventional horizontal developed Austin Chalk and the Barnett Shale.*

*




*


*



*

*



*
[/FONT][/FONT]


----------



## chance fate

hey agent.. check out the adi corp presentation if you haven't already... they've got 1 TCF potential for sugarloaf JV area...  600 bcfe out of the upper zone...  very good!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Just read ADI presentation and smile with satisfaction AgentM its all coming out now 1 tcf !
The news is out hold on for the ride


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Just read ADI presentation and smile with satisfaction AgentM its all coming out now 1 tcf !
> The news is out hold on for the ride




no big ride yet,, not even $30k traded

market doesnt get it... 1tcf gives the share massive upside, but no one wants to be in on it..  pity.. i thought the announcements were brilliant..


----------



## chance fate

agent, you're right the market doesn't get it...  reckon we've got to wait for the test next week to confirm the theory...  or wiat til the end of the day when there's the usual rush...


----------



## ricey

Interesting that in the diagram zone 2 looks slightly larget than 1 & 3!

At the end of the day it matters not what the SP does today!

We have an amazing discovery, in time the market will work it all out!

regards


----------



## chance fate

Agree with you ricey...  reckon there's some punters out there today betting there'll be more delays to the tests...which is fine for technical traders.. good luck...  but reckon these latest presentations show a strong indication that the JV's are working with fundamentals as opposed to uncertain variables...  so even betting on a delay could be more risky than it looks....


----------



## Agentm

just wanted to see for myself what number of wells and were involved with Pearsall and Giddings.

Pearsall i found 3361 wells in all the counties that have produced from the pearsall Austin chalks.

Giddings, I found 7828 wells that have produced from the Giddings Austin chalks..

remembering that those fields were not purchased outright by one player, here we have TCEI taking out the lions share of the play, in those counties you have countless oil companies over the decades producing from the chalks..

I dont think any had 20,000 acres of the giddings on their own! so we have done extremely well

this is a brand new discovery, with many decades of production to come, and a few players taking the whole show over!!

i know the market isnt excited about it at all, but when i see the JVP's comparing the play to these fields, and understanding that we have only one zone on production with three in total that are capable of producing, with 3 tcf on the agenda just for the upper sugarkane zone on its own!!

its exciting in my books... 

This is one heck of a find, and TCEI has snapped up all the acreages.. so our jvp is happily sitting on the prime acreages of the eastern section of the suagrkane!

its a real shame the market doesnt get it,, but all we can hope for is that the sp doesnt tank too much on the 1tcf announcement.. fingers crossed!!


----------



## daeff

In time the market must get it.. the fundamentals of cash flow through the door will rectify that...

What ADI is still suffering from is;

failings to date on NT "the sure thing" which is still unresolved and suffereed numerous delays and finally failure in the eyes of the market punters (this could well be different as we know but the market does not)

The lower hosston failure to flow and that fact that we have not tested our section yet in the uppers together with the long delay... people do not see it happening and still discount the whole play until it is tested and it flows.

So JUST GO AHEAD AND TEST SL1 so I can bath in Moet


----------



## Agentm

NT has had problems with the operator..

• Well currently shut-in
pending resolution of operator issues​ 
i have done my research there and fully understand it, but i am not the one who is going to comment on it, i know its being fixed and thats all i care about..​ 
currently 75% of trades are cross trades, so someone is holding the prices down.. ​ 
I see amazing value in the chalks,, and no way could the JVP's announce the chalks in Dec 06.. they are only allowed to now,, and testing will not be delayed from now on..​ 
we have a forward drilling program of 16 wells which we are a part of.. and the tesing of Sl1 is upon us..​ 
AUT has just finished announcing the sugarkane,, and i wonder what the word will be now??​ 
As i said, the market doesnt get it,, we have a major play, but more than that, we have the lions share of the major play.. thats unique!!!​ 
i just hope the sp doesnt tank too much,, as i said before the news is brilliant, but the market doesnt understand it... which is a pity..​ 
maybe later then?? who knows???​


----------



## chance fate

seems to be tracking the same way nexus did over the days leading up to the - in that case - lack of major news on echuca..  but there was a flurry towards the total depth in that appraisal well...  so reckon we can expect that kind of interest leading into the tests - which are now more a reserves appraisal than a test on whether the field is commercial in the first place (imo)...  then once tested the money waiting on the side lines will have confidence to come in...  imo...


----------



## HOMER J

Great announcements today, im suprised too we arent seeing more buying volume. Still testing is getting closer every day. you only need to go to ADI's website and read some of the broker reports to see what 800bcf would be worth to ADI.......


----------



## Agentm

i have been discussing with conocophillips investor relations recently whether the kunde wells would be discussed by John Lowe, here is their reply..

John Lowe did not cover items at this level of detail during his presentation.
*Adrienne M. Becker*
ConocoPhillips - Investor Relations
375 Park Avenue, Suite 3702
New York, NY 10152
212-207-9077
adrienne.m.becker@conocophillips.com


----------



## Father Ted

Agentm said:


> i have been discussing with conocophillips investor relations recently whether the kunde wells would be discussed by John Lowe, here is their reply..
> 
> John Lowe did not cover items at this level of detail during his presentation.
> *Adrienne M. Becker*
> ConocoPhillips - Investor Relations
> 375 Park Avenue, Suite 3702
> New York, NY 10152
> 212-207-9077
> adrienne.m.becker@conocophillips.com




I rather suspected that a little old ranch in the middle of Texas would be small fry for the likes of John, when did you get this from CP?

Father Ted


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> i have been discussing with conocophillips investor relations recently whether the kunde wells would be discussed by John Lowe, here is their reply..
> 
> John Lowe did not cover items at this level of detail during his presentation.
> *Adrienne M. Becker*
> ConocoPhillips - Investor Relations
> 375 Park Avenue, Suite 3702
> New York, NY 10152
> 212-207-9077
> adrienne.m.becker@conocophillips.com





Explains why EME only said - look at the jvps websites for details of their presentations today on SL1 - If they did it quote anything it would have breached their confidiality clause - because the JVP partners admitted conoco and kunde3 into their reports ----but we are not allowed to say the names!!


----------



## Agentm

it appeared in my outlook this morning. 5:57 am.. 

so did EME announce something on the presentations!!  It sounds like they didnt say anything but referred people to the respective sites.. which means what you indicate tarzan, the EME agreement is definately not to the investors advantage, as they are unable to speak freely on the sugarkane.. they have to refer to third parties to speak for them so to speak!


Tarzan, i have seen no indications anywhere that the TCEI briefing to couch oil, that couch translated onto his website in sept 06, is nothing short of 100% accurate.

the news yesterday is exactly in line with anything i have researched and discovered..  I see the multi tcf on just one of the 3 zones as just the start.. i am absolutely convinced the presentations yesterday are 100% accurate, and this is only the start, i believe there is more still to come.


----------



## chance fate

Agent...  if the upper zone correlates directly with the already producing interval in sugarkane (awesome!) why aren't the other 2 zones productive there too???  i'm not getting my hopes up on those other zones...  they're upside only... the main pay for me is now zone one ...  which unfortunately will get tested last ...  i.e. in about 2 weeks time....  got no probs with that...  and hope the lower zones yield too....


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> Agent... if the upper zone correlates directly with the already producing interval in sugarkane (awesome!) why aren't the other 2 zones productive there too??? i'm not getting my hopes up on those other zones... they're upside only... the main pay for me is now zone one ... which unfortunately will get tested last ... i.e. in about 2 weeks time.... got no probs with that... and hope the lower zones yield too....




all zones were tested at kunde 1 and Kunde 2.  extensively.  they then blocked the lower zones and have run production on the Kunde 1 well. in Zone 1 only!!

one zone at a time!! things will progress as time goes on.. the sugarkane has a long long way to go yet in terms of discovery.. one third in now!!

there is absolutely no evidence to say the lower Zones (zone 2 and 3) will not be productive at kunde,..

i am convinced all three zones can be capable of producion,, i am of the belief that Zone 1 which is sugarkane, is a proven play, and we had great porosity, if not superior porosity as couch oil suggested, and the Zone 3 and 2 regions are equal if not better than the kunde sugarkane.. time will tell..

This Austin Chalk play is proved up to potentially be 3 TCF,, in my view the numbers are small,, its entirely possible the two other Zones are equally charged and we may be on a play thats too staggering for words..

Currently the market is in disbelief that a bunch of junior aussie explorers have got themselves 20,000 acres of prime sugarkane, and developing it with the likes of conocophillips..  

bring on the tests


----------



## chance fate

...yeah..  delaying the test for a year ... and then getting in deeper with 20000acres...  if this doesn't come off i want to see forcke and neuling and couch and the other's up against a wall for target practice...


----------



## Agentm

ok... 

bit of a quiet time.. thought i would bring up something visually to get you the appreciation of just how big these companies are..

again pictures can sometimes tell you something.. 

2 here, 

first is texas crude energy HQ...


then the HQ of Conocophilips,, mind you they have offices in houston central, and everywhere else for that matter, this is their tiny little HQ

when i look at these pictures i wonder which one of these two pictures do you think pull the strings in the sugarkane projects???

sometimes a picture tells you a lot more doesnt it...???

now i have my cash invested in these guys safe hands.... via ADI..

you dont become the worlds 10th biggest corporation by making mistakes, and guessing!!!


----------



## sbop

Either CP or one of Saddam's imperial palaces. Both built on oil revenue, only difference with this is we'll get a slice through ADI.


----------



## tarzanhey

Like the pictures of the Conoco and TCEI  Headquarters agentM.

 but you have to admit TCEI have the better sports facilities nearby - dont you think?


----------



## Agentm

it was a but quiet last night,, i was on google earth and punched in TCEI,, then i sorta laughed when i punched in conocophillips.. 

i will look at the leases in the 200,000 acres over the next few days, may show some interesting results..


----------



## nioka

Somebody tried to ramp ADI this morning. My detailed quote, 5mins before opening, showed buyers at 80c and a suggested price of 80c. I checked for an announcement, found none and switched back to quotes to find the 80c dissapeared just before opening. ??????????????????????


----------



## Agentm

think about what this means...  *those stars*,,,

how many out there are doing the research???

*CAN YOU SEE THE STARS???????????*


----------



## chance fate

could be planned wells agentM...  but if so in what period?  i thought the spacing was 160 acres...  that means a galaxy worth just on sugarloaf...  should have used proper stars names instead of presidents imo...  how about clooney-1h ...  or de niro-2h....  or even dame edna-1h (if you want a mega star that is)...  maybe kennedy is a memorial to graham kennedy...  might be appropriate...  and micheal k(c)ane instead of sugarkane and meatloaf instead of sugarloaf.....


----------



## tonudiki

I see mention of the potential 3 tcf for the total 200,000 acre Austin chalk play, but this of course is only for the gas. On top of this there is the potential 500 mmbc . Using the standard conversion of 1 brl of oil/concentrate = 6,000 cu. ft. of gas, the concentrate is 3 tcfe.

   So, we are looking at a total potential of more than 6 tcfe from the upper zone only and with the JVP's 20,000+ acres ( Approx. 10% of the total  field) a potential 600+ bcfe for the JVPs. Actually, if you look at the AUT presentation they make it about 640 bcfe on their graphs. 

   ADI have a working interest of 20% on this or 128 bcfe, but there are royalties to pay of 29%, so we have a net potential of 91 bcfe from the upper zone only. 

   If the 2 lower zones jack up the 640 bcfe to 1 tcfe, then ADI's share of this would be 142 bcfe after royalties. On a fully diluted share basis, the NPV of this comes out at A$5  per share......well worth waiting for.


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> could be planned wells agentM... but if so in what period? i thought the spacing was 160 acres... that means a galaxy worth just on sugarloaf... should have used proper stars names instead of presidents imo... how about clooney-1h ... or de niro-2h.... or even dame edna-1h (if you want a mega star that is)... maybe kennedy is a memorial to graham kennedy... might be appropriate... and micheal k(c)ane instead of sugarkane and meatloaf instead of sugarloaf.....




what about eddy pogue,, he will be famous one day my scouts tell me, ever heard of him?


the seem like stars that vary in age..

one star is one that has shone before, (poor old john campbell knows so little)  some are about to shine very bright..  one there is been switched off for what seems a long time to me.. some are productive stars,,

there many stars that have stage fright and yet to be tested,, and one there i can see looks that good they had another look a week ago from another angle....

buts its definately not the southern cross

All imho DYOR..


----------



## Agentm

you have to wait for the test before you really know anything..

i cant wait for the week to begin.. as for me as a long term holder the 1 year delay on sl and then the one year further delays on testing has been a long haul..

if they tested the secondaries i would never have had any opportunity to do any real research,, once they shut in SL1 i had to find things out,, and the longer they wait the more i dig.. even if the jvp's are getting their noses out of joint about it!!  but i will say less about eddie then..


----------



## chance fate

Agentm said:


> what about eddy pogue,, he will be famous one day my scouts tell me, ever heard of him?
> 
> 
> the seem like stars that vary in age..
> 
> one star is one that has shone before, (poor old john campbell knows so little)  some are about to shine very bright..  one there is been switched off for what seems a long time to me.. some are productive stars,,
> 
> there many stars that have stage fright and yet to be tested,, and one there i can see looks that good they had another look a week ago from another angle....
> 
> buts its definately not the southern cross
> 
> All imho DYOR..




eddy pogue?? no idea... is he off dancing with the stars...  or star wars... or star treck or somthin'??  what ever hope he performs as well as Sl and Kennedy (better not be a dead kennedy tho' - both the dead one and 1H will be horizontal!!)....


----------



## jackohelp

with ref to your stars...

dont want to be pedantic but isn't kenedy#1 to the east of sl#1 not north?
................


----------



## godzillaismad

Hello,

I have been watching ADI for a while... I'm just wondering from the historical data, their stock was once worth more than $100? Did they do a stock merge somewhere in the past?

Thanks


----------



## Agentm

its all happening right now..

kunde 3 is laying production casing... started that on friday..

SL1 is active all of a sudden.. i see all sorts of reports going in on it..

get the feeling there is a green light happening on the wells..

monday looks like a very interesting day indeed...

good luck to all holders

all IMHO & DYOR


----------



## Evangeline

Only two sleeps to go till testing on Sugarkane begins!

There has been no news of any delays from the company so it all looks good to go ahead - only hope the bloody DOW doesn't stuff it up for us.

Good luck to all holders

Cheers
Eva


----------



## cicak_kupang

I may be miss understanding things here, but on this forum,we are thinking 1tcf from the upper zone, thats Sugarkane. Then anything in the lowert zones is on top of that majic 1tcf...right??????????
But on page 13 of the September ADI pressentation, they are saying....  "SUGARLOAF AMI
*600 BCFE *potential
Upside of ~*1TCFE if other
Chalk zones factored in*."

Thats upto 1tcf with the other chalk zones, the lower zones, and not 1tcf just from the sugarkane zone.

Any one with me...........?

good days ahead i feel...................


----------



## mpls

Looking at the Adelphi presentation.

P.10 Diagram of the zones. Only measurement is an 80m range of the Austin Chalk covering the 3 zones. This is *262*.4671916010499 Feet. So all 3 zones are within 262 ft as per the presentations.

Couch said 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. *275ft* interval

So it is reasonable to say so it looks like *all three zones fall into Couch's range*


So,
















Bring on the first test in zone 3!

PS: Can agentm, filter me here?


----------



## Agentm

TCEI put in a gas completion report on the 28th Aug 2007..

the report i think was needed as after 12 months you have to report something on the well.. they cant just sit on it.. so this is the longest possible time they probably could have shut in the well without reporting on it..

its now listed as a gas well

dont get too excited as the well is not tested.. this is the DI report on the well.. 

DI ADVISORY: NO COMPLETION DATE USED OPERATORS CERTIFICATION DATE
*5" 23.2# CASING PULLED TO 14760'
DI ADVISORY: DISTRICT COMPLETION STAMP DATE AUG 28 2007
WELL RECORD ONLY- AT THIS DATE THIS WELL HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED AND NO TEST HAVE BEEN RON

i can see where they squeezed the cement,, i find that part the most exciting part of the report.. think about the 3 zones and think about how they said the lower zones were the most charged..


12292-12294 SQUEEZED WITH 300 SKS "H"

12250-12252 SQUEEZED WITH 100 SKS "H"


kunde 3 is on the go now, its taken some time for them to decide to put in the casing, as production casing going in now, they can finish the well and then test it when ever.. 

they have to report it within 48 hours,, so i got it yesterday,, it was filed on thursday or fiday it actually started laying the production casing on the 3rd september.. so its 6 days in on laying the casing..

Prod - Int  09/03/2007 03:00



Monday will be interesting.. I get the feeling Sugarloaf is about to get the green light, i would be as upset as anyone if they delay again,, but my own opinion is that SL1 testing is genuinely about to commence this coming week..

2 years of amazing times,, its one hell of a test well.. and remember that this well was always designed as a test well.. thats extremely important..

bring on that test!!!


----------



## Father Ted

Hello!

It's 10:50pm on 11th Sept here in the UK. This forum seems to have died over the last couple of days.

Has every one gone home - or did I just miss the end of the world?

Father Ted


----------



## Agentm

the ASF forum is a little different to the one your used to..

i try to contribute information and discuss issues about ADI and also the JVP.

your forum is different, its based on abuse and attack of a personal nature, and the ADVFN one in particular has driven investors away, many have their own email groups in preference to the forums as the opinions are appreciated and respected.

i found kevro on the HC site yesterday raised some significant issues, but when i look at the Uk site i see the quality posters have all moved away into private groups and the discussions are of higher quality.. you probably know i am hated by many on advfn for posting support for the jvp and having a positive attitiude to the 15 year project that TCEi and conocophillips have had there in live oak and karnes county..

Most investors are simply waiting for the testing to begin this week.. 

I remain optimistic that the SL1 tests will happen as announced.. many punters will not back it in this time after seeing the testing being announced constantly for 12 months and revised and delayed over and over again.

fingers crossed!!

btw, why wouldnt EME announce the laying of production casing and the testing of mumbojumbo well???


----------



## Lucky_Country

Looking forward too a weekly update today hopefully stating testing has started and results will be out soon.
Still very interested too hear something on NT seems lost in the trail of SL was very hopeful of a good result there


----------



## Evangeline

Not much to be said atm.  We're all just on tenterhooks waiting for news about the upcoming tests.  It is my understanding they have to let us know by Monday if they are to be delayed again?

I am not that optimistic about them starting this week - given that they have to disassemble and reassemble Paterson rig in such a short time.  But who knows?


----------



## blues

AUT report out fraccing has begun and the drill rig is on the way.

ADI and EKA now also have market sensitive announcements out.

Cheers


----------



## HOMER J

Via ASX Online
SUGARLOAF-1 TEST PROGRAM COMMENCES
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that fraccing and testing operations at the Sugarloaf-1
well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, commenced on 11
September 2007, Texas time.
As previously advised, there are up to three separate zones that will be fracced and
tested sequentially as part of this program in Cretaceous aged carbonates of the Austin
Chalk formation, with the deepest zone being tested first.
Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available.
The Operator of the Sugarloaf Project (Texas Crude Energy Inc.) has further advised that
mobilisation of the drilling rig to the Kennedy #1H well site is scheduled to commence this
week.
Adelphi, through its wholly owned US subsidiary Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc., has a 20%
interest in the Sugarloaf Project which includes the Sugarloaf-1 and Kennedy #1H wells.
For further information please contact Alex Forcke or Chris Hodge on 08 9480 1300 or
info@adelphienergy.com.au.
Yours faithfully
ALEX FORCKE
Executive Chairman
Adelphi Energy Limited


----------



## Lucky_Country

Testing has started hold onto your hats could be an exciting few weeks Kennedy 1 will also start this week here we go last chance too get in !


----------



## Agentm

i was looking at the patterson rig today,, and its still feasable to get it done and over to our well.. they have about 500 feet of production casing left to as of 3 days ago..

the best news is that they started testing yesterday.. 

we will be getting updates on the well as soon as they have them..

this is the news we have all been waiting for..

WILL THEY GET FLOW???????


----------



## nioka

Looks like the "groundhog day curse" has been lifted at last. Indications are, for me at least, that the time is close to find out if the wait has been worth while. Actually it has been a profitable ride to date for me because of the ups and downs. Let's hope it is all up from here.


----------



## Agentm

Just checked, ground hog day is officially over!

The reaction is very very subdued.. nothing really to be excited about.

I would have thought i warranted a little bit of discussion.. oh well!!

Good luck to all holders here, and those selling before the news comes out.. best of luck..


----------



## mfunksta

We've all speculated how high the price will go with flow, but how low do you think it will go without it?


----------



## tomcat

I  think the thing to remember as Agent has pointed out, that this is a vertical test well. The chalks produce best from the horizontals. If the tests have good flow on any of the 3 zones then we are in for some outstanding times...if not the sp may take a bit of a hit but I am in it for the horizontals as that is where the real value will be realised.


----------



## mfunksta

Will they be able to estimate the flows of a horizontal from a vertical test well?   If not, what is main purpose?


----------



## tomcat

mfunksta said:


> Will they be able to estimate the flows of a horizontal from a vertical test well?   If not, what is main purpose?




I think I read that they will put any zone that produces on long term reservoir test which will help evaluate whats down there....Agent???


----------



## tomcat

tomcat said:


> I think I read that they will put any zone that produces on long term reservoir test which will help evaluate whats down there....Agent???




Found it, on the announcement on the 11th of July

11 July 2007 

Company Announcements Platform 
Australian Stock Exchange Limited 
Exchange Centre 
20 Bond Street 
SYDNEY  NSW  2000 

Via ASX Online 

SUGARLOAF PROJECT UDPATE 

Sugarloaf-1 Well 
The rig required to undertake remedial cementation and formation testing has arrived on 
site. Remedial cementation operations will start immediately and could take up to three 
weeks to complete. This will be followed by fracture stimulation and flow testing of each 
of the three zones of possible gas pay, identified from wire-line logs and gas shows in 
carbonate rocks of Cretaceous age.  
For engineering reasons the deepest zone will be tested first. Should any of the zones of 
interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be 
placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance.


----------



## Agentm

The well is a two phase well.. 

If the well got production from the hosston sands then they would have drilled again into the chalks at kennedy 1H in my view.

I am not looking for a commercial well here,, although the way couchy was reporting it, with "first phase success" i personally dont expect any bad news at SL1.

They are testing all three zones,, thats significant.. they did that at Kunde 1, then chose to only run the well off the upper zone. The actual logs for the lower zones are unknown to me.

Sugarkane is in the upper, so we have a proven zone on our block anyway, and we have the possibilty the other zones are better or equal to sugarkane!!

I am of the opinon the SL1 well is a test well and is not ever going to be a vertical well in the future,  kevro was talking about it yesterday, and i have been saying it for months .. The chalks are all about horizontal wells, and the recent adi presentation made a big point of it.. SL1 is only testing it.. thats all.. 

There would be many siting on the sidelines right now watching the results closely, the moment the news comes out the chalks are flowing, regardless of commercial rates or not, there will be some moves onto all the jvp's..


----------



## chance fate

i'm with agentm on this...  if the vetical well isn't commercial, the extended tests will reveal the size of the overall reservoir...  a horizontal well produces at 5-10 times the rate of a vertical one...  so reckon kennedy won't disappoint...


----------



## Agentm

hey chance,,

looking at the UK boards and HC,  only a few holders left,, all very very quiet.

I still have only one objective, and to wait for the forward drilling program to finish then get full value from the holding i have.

The news on the flow testing should break very quickly..

good luck to the few that are left.. and to those that sold, i hope they made a good gain..

on with the silence................................................


----------



## Evangeline

What makes you think that people have sold out and there are fewer (presumably bigger) shareholders left?  

Maybe people are just waiting quietly hoping for the result we all pray for?

Good luck


----------



## inhaler

Agentm there are lots of pi's on EME who dont post such as myself and are invested in EME, please keep your posts coming you are a valued and well respected poster on our board, and your research is top notch. A very big thank you to you.  inhaler.


----------



## chance fate

Agentm said:


> hey chance,,
> 
> looking at the UK boards and HC,  only a few holders left,, all very very quiet.
> 
> I still have only one objective, and to wait for the forward drilling program to finish then get full value from the holding i have.
> 
> The news on the flow testing should break very quickly..
> 
> good luck to the few that are left.. and to those that sold, i hope they made a good gain..
> 
> on with the silence................................................




...given what's publicly available, reckon you've researched this one to bits Agent...  would be good to get more inside info... all the research has done is shake out those (more knowledge = less risk or at least identifies and maybe quantifies the risk) that don't have the appetite for the next step....which for the time being has boiled down to possibly either a yes or a no result...  so there's probably alot of risk averse players on the side lines...  and there's those punters that are satisfied with the risk-reward level and have taken their positions....  both waiting for new info....  so reckon it's understandable things have gone quiet.... mean time all JV's seem to be successfully capped....apologies if i'm stating the bleedin' obvious.....


----------



## Broadside

Agentm said:


> hey chance,,
> 
> looking at the UK boards and HC,  only a few holders left,, all very very quiet.
> 
> I still have only one objective, and to wait for the forward drilling program to finish then get full value from the holding i have.
> 
> The news on the flow testing should break very quickly..
> 
> good luck to the few that are left.. and to those that sold, i hope they made a good gain..
> 
> on with the silence................................................




I haven't sold a single share in ADI...nothing to say except........waiting and hoping.  Maybe we are in the eye of the hurricane which is why it is so quiet.


----------



## resourceboom

yeah, lack of discussion doesn't mean people have sold.
are you trying to stir up some more interest??


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> ...given what's publicly available, reckon you've researched this one to bits Agent... would be good to get more inside info... all the research has done is shake out those (more knowledge = less risk or at least identifies and maybe quantifies the risk) that don't have the appetite for the next step....which for the time being has boiled down to possibly either a yes or a no result... so there's probably alot of risk averse players on the side lines... and there's those punters that are satisfied with the risk-reward level and have taken their positions.... both waiting for new info.... so reckon it's understandable things have gone quiet.... mean time all JV's seem to be successfully capped....apologies if i'm stating the bleedin' obvious.....





I think your right on the side lines,, i am aware of a few brokers waiting for a few key words like "flow" and its green light for them..

it is as you say understandable the boards are quiet..

kevro was throwing up some interesting debate on HC, which basically was that the SL1 well is not likely to remain a vertical well.. I looked at Kunde 2 and its not a P&A, so theres a chance that well could be converted into a horizontal,, as could Kunde 1..  with 3 zones, and 3 wells i was interested to know of others having thoughts that those wells could be part of the 16 well program, as SL 1 could be.. 


With kennedy 1H and the possibility of Sl1 going horizontal, we could have 2 horizontal production wells in no time..

The reason why i feel the SL1 well has plans attached to it, is that i noticed they put in a gas completion report, and have listed SL1 as an "official" gas well with the RRC,  so its no wildcat in TCEI view, they have plan for it to be a well even before they have tested it!

Pogue for instance is listed as drilling in progress..  and shut in..

I find it unusual to file a gas completion report on a well unless your going to connect it to the pipelines and produce from it..

Interesting tactics in my view, and my opinion is that they will simply put in a amended permit to recomplete SL1 into a horizontal well into whatever zone kennedy 1 h doesnt go into..

it says to me the TCEI boys are keen on a few zones,,  very bullish in my view, and they have the advantage of the conocophillips data, so they would have a fair idea if our chalks are productive in a multiple zones..

The fact SL1 is now officially a gas well, yet untested, means a lot in my view.. its highly unusal to see it happen, and i feel they are keen on more than just the sugarkane here!


calm before the storm


all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Lucky_Country

Seems like everyone is just waiting on news of the first flow then they will press the trigger too buy ADI.
This could really increase the sp quite dramatically and all longterm holders will be rewarded for their patience myself included I hope !


----------



## Evangeline

Hi all - I noted with interest that ANZ nominees have upped their interest by some 500k shares in latest Top 20.

Eva


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Hi all - I noted with interest that ANZ nominees have upped their interest by some 500k shares in latest Top 20.
> 
> Eva




your getting real good at this eva,, i like your style..

NO ONE IS SELLING A SINGLE SHARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


weird hey??


this share absolutely rocks big time.. 

i cant think of a single share i would rather be in right now.. High risk high reward.. those with some courage are going to get their answers,, and basically no one can back out anyway.. and when they start lining up for the shares if the news is as expected,, i dont intend to sell a single share..

good luck to all holders..


----------



## greenfs

Agentm said:


> your getting real good at this eva,, i like your style..
> 
> NO ONE IS SELLING A SINGLE SHARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> 
> weird hey??
> 
> 
> this share absolutely rocks big time..
> 
> i cant think of a single share i would rather be in right now.. High risk high reward.. those with some courage are going to get their answers,, and basically no one can back out anyway.. and when they start lining up for the shares if the news is as expected,, i dont intend to sell a single share..
> 
> good luck to all holders..




This looks to me as a ramp and should be treated accordingly by those with the responsibility to tick off offenders.


----------



## Agentm

greenfs said:


> This looks to me as a ramp and should be treated accordingly by those with the responsibility to tick off offenders.




looks like the thought police to me..

so whats part is a ramp.. the bit that no shares traded as all are holding..

the fact i like the share..

pointing out the high risk high reward..

the fact there is not enough volume for holders to exit..

the fact i intend to hold if good news comes out..

or wishing holders good luck..


----------



## bazollie

I like your style AgentM. I don't believe any part of what you say is ramping. You have put in hundreds of hours of research & posts. Without your input, there would have been many many people desert the stock. There have been numerous opportunities for anyone to trade in & out of this stock & make some good dollars. For the investors who have stayed put & patient, we all hope that the news will be very positive & will be timely from now. 
I have waited this long, another week or two & I trust that we can all crack a crownie or 2!


----------



## Agentm

When it got close to the hosston sands we had the same type of posts,, people getting real personal..

I checked the posts he had just done,, and he is a first class ramper!!

I dont think there will be many negative posts on adi from me,, so make sure you understand i absolutely believe the research i did backs up my conviction to invest heavily in adi..

I hope everyone makes a killing here.. waiting a year for a test to happen has been very hard for a lot of holders,,


----------



## Lucky_Country

It has been hard watching my investment in ADI going up too over $1 then retrace to around the 45c mark now seems to have stabilised around the 70c mark pre test result.
Although nothing is assured ADI management have conducted themselves with great distinction with no ramping of the stock and just giving us the facts to date this company is well run and professional with a great future all imo before I get accused of ramping!


----------



## Lert

I'm another long time holder and have greatly appreciated Agents posts. Although not a large proportion of my SMSF I have great hopes that in the long term ADI will be a solid contributer..  As long as Missus Streitberg is holding 1.2mil shares, I'll hold mine. Good luck to holders and please DYOR


----------



## tomcat

Hi Lert,

I think a lot of us think in terms of short term gain on ADI, but your right if things go well then it could be a great solid contributer to any portfolio...lets see those dividends at goodness knows ??? per share in 12 months... hey ADI  We may have to stop them selling the company too cheap if the lower zones hit pay dirt and sugarcane is all we hope for ;-)

Good luck Lert, if missus Streitberg likes it then I'm in as well.

Cheers



Lert said:


> I'm another long time holder and have greatly appreciated Agents posts. Although not a large proportion of my SMSF I have great hopes that in the long term ADI will be a solid contributer..  As long as Missus Streitberg is holding 1.2mil shares, I'll hold mine. Good luck to holders and please DYOR


----------



## mpls

Spot the discrepencies:

_29 August 2007


Empyrean Energy PLC
('Empyrean' or the 'Company'; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
----------------------------

- TCEI JV Block A # 1 well reaches total depth
- Encouraging gas shows throughout the horizontal well
- Gas flares measuring up to 65 feet observed

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV
Block A #1 well has reached a *total depth of 4,400 meters* (measured
depth). Current operations are preparing to run casing.




Empyrean Energy PLC
25 July 2007




Empyrean Energy PLC

('Empyrean' or the 'Company'; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

• TCEI JV Block A # 1 well update

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A
#1 well, the first well to be drilled as part of the recently announced 16
well deal, continues to drill ahead having drilled to date approximately
*1500 feet of the planned 4000 feet horizonta*l drainhole in the Cretaceous
Carbonate.

The well has encountered encouraging gas shows in addition to fluorescence
in the cuttings. Multiple gas flares measuring between 10-40 feet have been
reported during the circulation of bottoms up accumulations as the mud
weight has had to be substantially increased.

The well is planned to be drilled *4000 feet horizontally (about 15500 feet
measured depth)* after which appraisal and analysis of the hydrocarbon shows
encountered during drilling will be carried out. Although encouraging, no
conclusions should be drawn from these gas shows, fluorescence and flares
until the drilling is completed and testing operations have been conducted.
Further updates will be provided as relevant information comes to hand._



Normalised to feet.

Kunde#3
25 July 2007 - The well was planned to be drilled 4000 feet horizontally (about 15500 feet measured depth)
29 August 2007 - TD, measured depth, 14435 ft.


They drilled 1065ft short of planned TD.
The Horizontal is crica 3000ft not 4000ft.

"Gas shows were observed over approximately 2,500 gross feet" thats 83% of the horizontal.


Was this because there was so much kick back from the horizontal they could not push any further?
Draw your own conclusions ...


----------



## Agentm

interesting that this family member or perhaps his wife has got the fortitude to back eric at ADI.

i agree on the long term aspect,, and wonder what sort of dividend the multitcf play can deliver long term..

i dont know what way to think on the testing.. do you assume that if the lower zone was unable to flow and held no pressure the release would be out already?  I imagine the probability of  news that there was no flow is less likely the longer the announcements take.. is that a fair assumption?

surely Alex cant expect holders to be able to stand waiting a weekend.. Imagine Mrs Streitberg not being able to ask her husband all weekend about the sugarloaf well!

we have waited a year,, just a hint would be appreciated!!

getting slightly anxious as you may tell


----------



## mfunksta

I think that seeing Agentm has filled the majority of the last 117 pages with informative observations he is entitled to a little bit of unbridled enthusiasm


----------



## chance fate

hope we're still progressing ok..  looks like they had some heavy weather...

Texas drenched by tropical storm  

Humberto was the third Atlantic hurricane so far this year  
Heavy rain has been falling in Texas after Hurricane Humberto, the first hurricane to hit the US Gulf coast in two years, came ashore on Thursday. 
One person was reported to have been killed and there were fears of flash flooding in areas already inundated in the wettest summer in 100 years. 

Power was knocked out in some districts by Humberto's 85mph (140km/h) winds. 

By mid-morning, the hurricane had weakened to a tropical storm and had moved into neighbouring Louisiana. 

At 1500 GMT, Humberto was 125km (75 miles) west-northwest of Lafayette in Louisiana with winds of 100km (75 miles) per hour, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported. 

Humberto had strengthened quickly to a Category One hurricane before making landfall early on Thursday, but then rapidly lost strength. 

Flooding fears 

Some 100,000 customers were without electricity in Beaumont and Port Arthur in Texas, a spokesman for Entenergy Texas said. Three oil refineries were also shut down after losing power. 

No evacuations had been ordered as Humberto neared the coast of Texas. 

But Texas Governor Rick Perry activated military rescue teams including helicopters and water rescue workers. 

"Some areas of our state remain saturated by summer floods, and many communities in this storm's projected path are at high risk of dangerous flash flooding," he said. 

At least 40 people have been killed in flooding in Texas this year. 

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said four to six inches of rain (10-15cm) of rain were expected across much of Louisiana and Mississippi. 

Humberto was the third hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic storm season. 

But it was far weaker than the deadly Hurricanes Dean and Felix which both reached Category Five status - the most powerful on the five-point rating scale - before lashing Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico.


----------



## Agentm

as far as i am concerned..  send the frac team out there on the deck!!!!

pay them triple,, pay them whatever they want!!

bit of rain isnt going to harm them!!

on a serious note...  

i had no idea there was a hurricane,, thanks for pointing it out.. and i do hope it doesnt cause any more harm nor damage..  its frightening stuff..


----------



## mfunksta

There's a good reason why the news of this hurricane may not be common knowledge.  I quickly Googled the weather forecasts - they don't seem too bad, but there are flood warnings for most of Texas.

Hurricane Humberto Breaks Record
Hurricane Humberto made landfall at 2:09 this morning just east of High Island.  Wind speeds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph.  We speculated on this blog that the storm could reach hurricane strength, but the fact that it did so surprised just about everyone, including the National Hurricane Center.  Check out the last paragraph from their 10 am discussion (I have translated the speeds and times in parentheses):

"BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT (35 mph) DEPRESSION AT 15Z (10 am) YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT (85 mph) HURRICANE AT 09Z (4 am) THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT (50 mph) IN 18 HOURS.  TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL.  IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED." 

Technically, the storm had 85 mph winds as early as 2 am, but the point is that we have never seen a tropical depression intensify this rapidly into a hurricane just prior to making landfall.


----------



## Metron

Yeah they better not delay because of the weather... The storm hit to the north east.  I would be surprised if they even got a single drop on the Rig.

Here is a 36hr Sat image...

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/...animation=true&zoom=5&interactiveMapLayer=sat

Metron


----------



## Agentm

i did ask adi two things today..  actually three..

i can confirm they dont believe any weather has been experienced in the sugarlaof area,,

i can confirm that adi are not going to let me know how the testing went,, 

i can confirm the second time i asked in the same email i got the same remark!!  

i can confirm i am no wiser than i was 12 months ago..

now i intend to have a fine bottle of red, and watch the pies thump the eagles (but secretly want the eagles to win as underdogs)

as far as i am concerned  the longer the better is my view on this..


----------



## chance fate

I doubt we're going to see any news today - they usually issue operational updates early/first thing in the morning...  reckon 48 hours into it they're back flushing frac fluids etc...  so testing today/weekend accounting for time diff...so will be surprised if there's nothing in the mail box first thing on Monday morning!


----------



## Lert

The Eagles underdogs Agent ? I reckon 22 fit Eagles are at least as good as 22 fit Pies at Subi.. Hissing down here in Perth atm so hope the pies are good on a wet track.. Geelong are the ones I'm worried about.. Anyway, agree with you on the bottle of red, should be a good game.. enjoy 
Oh, and about ADI, a couple of pages back in this thread where the ADI top20 list was posted I was surprised that no one mentioned that Eric's missus had a large holding. Quite interesting.


----------



## Agentm

if you tell me to back the eagles i will.. especially on a wet track..

all the directors piled in their own hard earned cash on the share,, they have not been loading up on options and giveaways like some in the jvp have..  its genuine cash sitting there,, so another reason why mine sits there right next to theirs..


----------



## fflintoff

Oil Barrel  14.09.2007 
"Investors Hope For Some Sweet News As Empyrean Energy Prepares To Test Sugarloaf And Looks For A Sugarkane Look-Alike On The Surrounding Acreage 
The onshore US is proving a useful playground for oil juniors chasing near-term development and production to bolster their balance sheets, among them Nighthawk Energy and Meridian Petroleum. Low cost, low risk drilling and high gas prices can make for a convincing business case, particularly when new imaging and completion technologies enable today’s companies to access previously overlooked or difficult-to-access reserves. There are many projects out there looking for financial backing but not all are worthy of the investment: the secret is finding the right project at the right price. 

Empyrean Energy is among those increasingly seeking its fortune in these mature but resource-rich lands, and its initial efforts appear to justify its investment choices to date. The AIM company, which also has onshore interests in Germany, has just concluded one drilling campaign in Texas, the successful Project Margarita shallow drilling programme which yielded three commercial gas finds and is already generating cash flows. It is now in the midst of another, this time testing the potential of the Sugarloaf prospect and surrounding acreage in Texas. And the fourth quarter will see the start of a higher risk drilling programme as the company chases deep gas reserves. 

For now the focus is on Sugarloaf. This prospect covers 80 sq km in the prolific Gulf Coast Basin of Texas and lies just 6.6 km east of the producing Sugarkane gas-condensate field. Empyrean has a 6 per cent working interest in the Texas Crude Energy-operated project, which was first drilled in 2006 when Sugarloaf-1 found tight reservoir sands in the primary Cretaceous-aged Hosston Formation. 

This was disappointing but there was compensation, with at least 92 ft of potential gas pay in a shallower secondary target, the Cretaceous-age carbonates. There are three distinct zones in these carbonates and it is these zones that are now being tested, with the deepest zone being tested first. Of most interest, however, will be the uppermost zone, which correlates with the apparently extensive Sugarkane reservoirs. 

Encouraged by what it has seen here, Empyrean has acquired additional interests in this area, having farmed into a 16 well programme over Sugarloaf Block A and Block B. Empyrean will earn a 7.5 per cent working interest in Block A by paying 12.5 per cent of the pre-production costs. The first well here, a horizontal appraisal of a gas filled reservoir already proven to exist at Sugarkane, is still drilling ahead having encountered encouraging gas shows to date. Investors will be impatient for news on this well, which has been drilling since May and could, if it yields a Sugarkane look-alike, prove to be a very attractive project and justify the additional investment. 

Empyrean also has an 18 per cent working interest in Block B, where the first well to drill will be Kennedy-1H some 5.5 miles to the east of the Sugarkane field. This will spud in the coming days and will be a vertical well drilled to a depth of 12,000 feet, at which point the well will drill a 5,000 feet horizontal section into the upper zone of the Cretaceous-aged carbonate reservoir. This should take 45 days, followed by fraccing and testing operations. 

This drilling work follows the completion of a six-well shallow drilling programme at Project Margarita in South Texas. This resulted in three commercial gas discoveries, which should generate 2.3 million cubic feet of gross gas production per day when all are onstream. Empyrean has a meaty 44 per cent interest in the project, which commercial director Tom Kelly said has produced a “terrific result” for the company. 

The fourth quarter will see drilling on three deep, high impact gas prospects. The first proposed prospect is a potential gas accumulation of between 15 and 48 billion cubic feet. This is a different scale of resource from the shallow prospects targeted to date but carries a higher risk profile. Investors like to see this mix of bread-and-butter shallow drilling (particularly when it yields the kind of strike rate seen at Project Margarita) with “jam tomorrow” high impact wildcatting, particularly when oil juniors can point to some early production to act as a financial buffer against a run of dry holes. To date, Empyrean has done a pretty good job of delivering its US strategy. "


----------



## Agentm

Empyrean also has an 18 per cent working interest in Block B, where the first well to drill will be Kennedy-1H some 5.5 miles to the east of the Sugarkane field. *This will spud in the coming days* and will be a vertical well drilled to a depth of 12,000 feet,

Correct!!!!!!!!!!

but even though kennedy is about to spud,, i am still more interested in the SL1 test results on Zone 2  &  3...   As for Zone 1... its a proven play,, not that concerned there really.. Kennedy is already targeting the sugar on current plans at least!!

enjoy the weekend..  looks like the author there got more info than the market really knows..


----------



## fflintoff

I bet that this guy Syed Shibli who is the Conocophillips Chalk Team Leader knows all about the Austin Chalk in Texas

Conocophillips Chalk Team Leader attending fractured reservoirs seminar on Thurs in London.

"September 20 - 21, 2007 • Thistle Victoria, London, UK

Fractured Reservoirs
Reduce uncertainty in your characterisation of natural & induced fractures with a thorough understanding of fracture initiation, propagation & arrest


Event description

Every fracture has unique properties and responds differently to changing stress. As an upstream geoscientist or engineer, how do you handle this uncertainty and build a model to the level of accuracy required for your project? 

Do you think accuracy is possible when modeling fractures? And, is this lack of accuracy a problem? 

Attend Energy IQ’s inaugural Fractured Reservoir Modelling & Simulation event to discuss these issues and get to grips with the latest practical approaches to understanding fractured reservoirs. 

Share in the best practice advice from leading operators active in recovering from fractured reservoirs, and come away with hands-on experience of measures you can take to improve accuracy in your modeling without wasting time.

Speakers include 

Syed Shibli, Chalk Team Lead, ConocoPhillips (UK) Ltd

10:20 Round Table Interactive Session: Plan Secondary Recovery From A Tight, Fractured Reservoir
1. What are the key data requirements for the design of fracture stimulations? 
2. What methodologies are used to interpret the data and piece together a field specific stress pattern? 
3. What data will help you understand present day stress and its relationship with paleo-stress? 
4. Preventing water injectors from short-circuiting: How can you best predict preferential flow paths and understand how to mitigate the negative effects of these? 
5. Where in your design should you work on increasing accuracy to ensure maximum performance of hydraulically fractured wells? 
In 5 groups, the delegation will address each question, and report their findings back to the room.

Facilitated by:

Syed Shibli
Chalk Team Lead
ConocoPhillips (UK) Ltd"

http://www.iqpc.com/cgi-bin/templates/singlecell.html?topic=545&event=13906


----------



## Agentm

thanks father ted for the significant news

kunde 2, is reopened.. its now going to go directional into the chalks..

permit (amended) went out on friday!

that will give CP a third well to closely look at the deeps..

seems the zone 2 & 3 are very interesting zones in the CP leases also!

looking good.. our chalks must have created a spark of interest in the CP camp..


----------



## fflintoff

Therefore Kunde #2 hasn ´t been truly lost which is excellent news & therefore the well could complement the current lateral Kunde #3 well & the imminent Kennedy H#1 well ?


----------



## Father Ted

Agentm

thanks for that, I'm beginning to get to grips with this now.

Just like to add a couple of points.

First of all, it seems that Kunde 2 is a directional well (not horizonal) and is angled down towards the line of the horizontal section of kunde 3.

More interesting, is that the postion of the horizontal leg of the kunde 3 well - as shown on the _new kunde 2 survey map _- is different from that on the original kunde 3 survey.

It ends much closer to the bottom right hand corner of the field, nearer the well head. Its therefore shorter, than intended and runs out in a more westerly direction, at a dirrerent angle.

This means that the bottom is 611ft from the horizontal of kunde 3 - or is it?

either they have drilled kunde 3 somewhere different to where they said they were going to - or they have it wrong on the new survey map.

If its wrong on the new map - then kunde 2 would be a lot closer than 611 ft to kunde 3

the permit states that his well cannot be produced concurrently from the same reservoir as: Kunde Gas Unit #1 Well 3

I wonder if this is looking for connectivity between the zones? (which they may be trying to do even if it _is_ 611ft away.)


what do you think

FT


----------



## fflintoff

"First of all, it seems that Kunde 2 is a directional well (not horizonal)"

Directional means horizontal!


----------



## Father Ted

fflintoff said:


> "First of all, it seems that Kunde 2 is a directional well (not horizonal)"
> 
> Directional means horizontal!




With respect no!

It means it is drilled at an angle in a particular direction. Horizontal wells go down and then along horizontally.

On a horizontal well, the survey map will show three positions. The surface position (SURF), the penetration point (PEN PT - the heel) and the bottom hole position (PBHL - the toe)

Kunde 2 permit is for a directional well, only two positions are marked SURF and PBHL, its not a horizontal.

The idea of a directional is to get the bottom hole position where you want it, when the well heads must be kept so far apart. the horizontal it designed to increase collection of gas or oil from thin layers where porosity or pressure is low.

FT


----------



## tomcat

Father Ted said:


> Agentm
> 
> thanks for that, I'm beginning to get to grips with this now.
> 
> Just like to add a couple of points.
> 
> First of all, it seems that Kunde 2 is a directional well (not horizonal) and is angled down towards the line of the horizontal section of kunde 3.
> 
> More interesting, is that the postion of the horizontal leg of the kunde 3 well - as shown on the _new kunde 2 survey map _- is different from that on the original kunde 3 survey.
> 
> It ends much closer to the bottom right hand corner of the field, nearer the well head. Its therefore shorter, than intended and runs out in a more westerly direction, at a dirrerent angle.
> 
> This means that the bottom is 611ft from the horizontal of kunde 3 - or is it?
> 
> either they have drilled kunde 3 somewhere different to where they said they were going to - or they have it wrong on the new survey map.
> 
> If its wrong on the new map - then kunde 2 would be a lot closer than 611 ft to kunde 3
> 
> the permit states that his well cannot be produced concurrently from the same reservoir as: Kunde Gas Unit #1 Well 3
> 
> I wonder if this is looking for connectivity between the zones? (which they may be trying to do even if it _is_ 611ft away.)
> 
> 
> what do you think
> 
> FT





I think it is exciting...if this well cannot be produced concurrently from the same reservior as K-3...which is in the upper chalks...then they must be going for the bottom 2 zones. We know from SL1 that the lowest zone had the best shows and could well be liquid rich. 

I'm hoping that the results from testing SL1 zone 3 has spurred on this decision!!! Just guessing but it could be great news for Sugarloaf. Time will tell, the ride is only going to get more interesting.

Hopefully news out soon regarding the bottom zones...lots of texas tea ;-) wouldnt that be nice.


----------



## Father Ted

tomcat

The permit for the re-opened kunde #2 is for gas only - and its only 12800 feet deep - that's just to the bottom of the chalks (if I understand it correctly)

I think this one is for agentm to work out!

FT


----------



## Agentm

father..

your correct on all things,, as a good priest should be,,

i know the well is listed as gas only,, and thats based on the ratio of gas versus oil when its flowing,, and the chalks are mainly gas only, but remember xto have a few wells that are listed as oil producing from the chalks right now..


in my view the chalks are rich in gas under high pressure, and high in liquids, as pointed out by ARQ energy recently..

flintoff.. a well can be lost, and not produce, as kunde 2 has,, but this is a new drill, directional, with the toe being 12800 feet MD,, not actual depth.. the old well is not going to be used.  if kunde 2 was not lost, so to speak, it would be a production well right now and this wouldnt be happening


each day the eme announcements come through with new news,, and the permits are coming through..  no more leases since that vital one TCEI got thre weeks ago a few miles south of Kunde wells...  now the wells are firing up,, with kunde 3 laying prodcution casing, and kunde 2 going directional  ,, and SL1 going to test phase,, and the patterson rig being called in for the kennedy 1H well on our leases...  

so its a clear and visibible transition from leases going in week in week out for 12 months,, to permits going in and the scouting activity i get is now 100% well related,, not lease related!!

its absolute that we are in the beginings of well development here.. theres no guess work here,, SL1 testing last week signalled the patterson rig to comne on site,, its a pattern of precision timing.. i am extremely impressed..

IMHO i get the feeling the testing at SL1 is such that horizontals are being given the go ahead on the indication thus far.. i bodes well for excellent news on the horizon...

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## tomcat

Father Ted said:


> tomcat
> 
> The permit for the re-opened kunde #2 is for gas only - and its only 12800 feet deep - that's just to the bottom of the chalks (if I understand it correctly)
> 
> I think this one is for agentm to work out!
> 
> FT




Hey FT,

Zone 3 is the bottom of the chalks and a well can be listed as gas and still have liquids. Didn't mean to confuse you ;-) Agentm does explain things much better than i do.


----------



## Father Ted

tomcat said:


> Hey FT,
> 
> Zone 3 is the bottom of the chalks and a well can be listed as gas and still have liquids. Didn't mean to confuse you ;-) Agentm does explain things much better than i do.




I agree, agentm does explain thinks well, but if you read some of the bb's that cover the sugarkane, there are a lot of people who only see what they want to see - not what is written.

First rule in any quest for the truth is:

Identify what you know, what you don't know - _and what you think you know._ - Then put all the 'what you think you know' into the 'what you don't know' catagory.

It's what you think you know that needs the greatest care, because if you make assumtions and then accept take them as fact - you quickly become very misled.

hence read the bb - then dyor

hold on for a very interesting few weeks (imho)

FT


----------



## chance fate

I'm trying to come up with a reason why we don't have an announcement yet...  one possibility is that they are undertaking an extended well test ...  which could be good news i.e. some gas is flowing tho' needn't mean it's commercial...  if there was nothing i would have thought we'd have seen an announcement to that effect today advising they are moving onto the next zone.....? anyone got any views??


----------



## Agentm

its a good conclusion..  the longer the testing the longer the doubt that the zones isnt flowing tends to dissappear.. i think a dry zone is a dry zone,, you cant do anything if it doesnt flow and you generally dont hang around for a long time with it when you have very expensive testing equipment, crews and rigs..

i posted this on HC today,, it may help a little.. its made me decide to put the champagne in the fridge now.. i am of the belief that you wouldnt spend weeks on one zone of dry chalks..  so on that basis i am pretty bullish.. 

hello shares..
been on my mind also.. i emailed ADI today and asked re their announcement:

"As previously advised, there are up to three separate zones that will be fracced and tested sequentially as part of this program in Cretaceous aged carbonates of the Austin Chalk formation, with the deepest zone being tested first.
Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available."

i took it that maybe all three may be tested then results of all three posted, so i asked for clarity..

I was given the specific answer that each zone will be tested individually, and then announcements made on the results of each zone as they finish each zone and move to the next..

hope it helps.. it sure made things clearer to me!!


----------



## wallave

From memory, earlier in the year when they tested the lower Hosston formation from when testing started about 7 days later they announced no luck with the first zone then a another 7 days annouced the next zone was also not commercial. 

The fact that it has been almost a week is hopefully a positive in my book even though the Hosston also took 1 week.  They did state _"should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance."_  so I'm hoping that we don't get an announcement for another week.  Unless we are advised that it is flowing like the clappers and they are doing further testing.

Crunch time.


----------



## Agentm

14th Feb announced they began,, by the 21st they announced several zones were perforated and NOT fraced, no flow what so ever..

"The first part of the testing program over the lower Hosston interval has been completed by perforating several zones. *As per the program design, these zones were not fracture stimulated and no flow of gas was recorded*."

dont know why they never fraced the lower sands?? that part was never really explained clearly.. later we hear there was flow but not at commercial rates.. i wonder if the sands were fraced whether we would have had better flow?


in any case.. thank god they have decided to frac the chalks..​


----------



## Agentm

back to leases..

now that they all seem to be done and dusted,, this is what 435 leases for the past 7 years over 200000 acres looks like.. not including atascosa which i cannot get lease data for.. but most of these leases have been signed in the past 1 -2 years.. and that leaves little time on a lot of leases before something has to happen on them... time is running short so things have to happen..


if you look at the adi presentation P13 

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX%20Release%205%20September%202007%20-%20Adelphi%20Investor%20Presentation%20September%202007.pdf

there is a definate area of interest that TCEI has been after for the past years. and its entirly sugarkane!!!


I look at our 20,000 acres as being part of the entire sugarkane field, and i look forward to seeing how many of the two lower zones may be equal or better than the proven zone 1 sugarkane play..

Now, they are starting to compare the sugarkane to top 20 producing fields like giddings, thats with only one zone proven. If you then consider the fact that our sugarkane is primarily dominated in the whole by a JVP that includes Conocophillips makes this one very interesting, the advantages i see is that with a cooperative jvp the sharing of data, the coordination of the development of the field makes for a very seemless operation, and adds to efficiency of a fast tracked coordinated development of the sugarkane and any other zones that may be equally as prospective..

fingers crossed here on the chalks being able to flow, not at commercial rates.. thats not important, as the verticals in chalks will never achieve commercial flows.. i just want them to be testing flows.. doesnt matter what rate, the flow itself will be good enough for me..

this may be the calm before the storm,, but the storm is potentially going to be astounding..


all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks Agentm - it is great to get such interesting and encouraging information during this rather tense perion.  Btw -where are we on that map?


----------



## Agentm

its the little red square just inside karnes county line..

TCEI has done brilliantly here, those leases are hard to negotiate when you have the likes of conocophillips doing 2d's and pioneer doing 2d's. 

i see ADI and the jvp's have kept a complete news blackout here.. no one is selling so we cant assume any bad news.. and it seems are holding for the next announcement..

we are now entering the second week of flow testing on zone 3, that part i particularily like.. the longer they go on and do extended flow testing of the chalks in zone 3, the more i am convinced the Zone 3 has also got strong potential to be productive. 

Whilst this blackout is on, the best way to check if things are going well is to rumage through the directors recyling bins and look for champagne bottles..

good luck to all holders


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks Agentm -Wow we really are in the thick of things there.  

They had only done preparatory things like casing etc this time last week and were still waiting for the rig to come over - wasn't it going to take 3 days just to get there?  

That means they've been actively testing since before the weekend one would think. Logical to think that if there is no flow then results would come out immediately -whereas flow would take time.


----------



## Agentm

not sure what you mean there..

the Patterson 30 rig is going to drill the kennedy 1h horizontal well 1.3 miles east of SL1.. that was mobilised last week i believe and should spud any day. They know i will know immediately when the K1H well spuds, so they will have to announce it before i get the scouting report.

The workover rig for SL1 was ready and waiting a while ago,, its been onsite and the testing of SL1 began a week ago, so 7 days of clear testing has been done already.

The preparations for the well, squeeze cement, were reported as being dome and completed a while ago, the well was simply waiting for the frac crew and equipment. There is a particular crew that TCEI obviously wanted.. they are now working on the well.

Its a substantial rig, the patterson 30 rig, and it should be ready to drill away now IMHO. 

Now think about what they are doing at SL1, they are testing all three zones sequentially, that means test a zone, long term as they can, then once completed they will plug the well off and frac and flow test the next zone up.. these tests are critical to TCEI, conocophillips and to our JVP, its a very very important test, the well is closed (no leaks anywhere) and will be until the zone is fully tested and they have the full understandings they need, there is no hurry here, just specialised crews doing very very critical testing and flow reports..

once all three are done IMHO there is no way they are going to just let SL1 produce from the vertical,, its a test well as a vertical, and IMHO it will become a horizontal.. and i totally expect it to be next cab off the rank after kennedy 1H is finished.. and i totally expect the Patterson 30 rig will be the one they use for all the horizontals in our jvp acreages...

There could be 3 zones they want to drill horizontal into, these tests will be done, and IMHO they wont spud kennedy 1 H until they have tested all the zones and know what well will go for which zone.. I am absolutely convinced the decision to go ahead on whatever zones will be done with TCEI and in consultation with Conocophillips, and only after they fully know what all three zones are doing. 

I think if there was a recompletion permit for SL1, it would come through just as soon as the well is finished testing, just as conocophillips has done at Kunde 2 now the Kunde 3 well is finished and is most likely on test.. Over in live oak I believe they would use the same rig, the nabors 775 rig for kunde 2 new drill.

this is the real deal here, the multi TCF potential is no fairy tale, its totally genuine from what i can see with the research i have done..

The JVP right now know what they have, its a great sign that all have adopted complete news blackout, and no leaks anywhere..


hope its not too confusing..

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## mpls

Agentm, can you clarify one thing.

You say:

_... the kennedy 1h horizontal well 1.3 miles east of SL1.. that was mobilised last week i believe and *should spud any day* ...

...IMHO *they wont spud kennedy 1 H until they have tested all the zones* and know what well will go for which zone.. I am absolutely convinced the decision to go ahead on whatever zones will be done with TCEI and in consultation with Conocophillips, and only after they fully know what all three zones are doing...
_


How can Kennedy-1H spud in the next few days if they will not spud until after until they have tested all the zones?

Given that an announcement will be made on a zone by zone basis and zone 1 has not been announced yet how can all three zones be tested in the next few days before Kennedy-1H spuds?

Could an alernative scenario would be to spud Kennedy-1H and when near to 12000ft (4 weeks) amend the permit?

But surely a long term test is many weeks of not months?


----------



## Agentm

your right.. its possible the kennedy well will spud in my view if the zone 3 looks good,, they have the option of amending it at any stage..

if the zone 3 is not any good i expect they will test all three zones and decide..

its down to how good the lower zones are. 

if they spud that kennedy well its a sure sign they are confident, 100% confident of success..

remember the kennedy well is not a wildcat,  its listed as "*SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS) **Primary Field *"


----------



## greenfs

This has got to be some sort of record by AgentM with seven posts on the one thread inside a week (and many more before that). Talk about "dedication" to a single stock. Congratulations.


----------



## nioka

greenfs said:


> This has got to be some sort of record by AgentM with seven posts on the one thread inside a week (and many more before that). Talk about "dedication" to a single stock. Congratulations.




If you go back and check you will find some weeks with many more than seven in a week. Dedication is right. The posts all help in the understanding ofADI and Sugarloaf and keep us informed and up to date. It is a pity ADI don't keep us as up to date. I am sure they have to check this thread to find out the latest for themselves


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> If you go back and check you will find some weeks with many more than seven in a week. Dedication is right. The posts all help in the understanding ofADI and Sugarloaf and keep us informed and up to date. It is a pity ADI don't keep us as up to date. I am sure they have to check this thread to find out the latest for themselves




he isnt a investor,, just a clown making a fool of himself,, some sort of sushi.. the thought police, and monitor of how many posts i make. and certainly not a adi holder, and certainly worth ignoring.. he just wants attention, and isnt able to control himself. 

your correct i have made many more posts than that in a week,, currently i am in sleep mode zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz............... but looking forward to being able to post as many as i want in the very near future!! 

i see that TCEI is still putting through leases, just when i thought they were finished, in karnes county..  Nice!! add another pink dot to that map above!!

still liking what i see,, and looking forward to the zone 3 results in the next week or so..


----------



## chance fate

... here's a thought.. if sugarloaf is put on long term production test like the kunde well...  we may see test results in a few months rather than weeks... mind you such a test would be very encouraging...  but personally i'd like to see them do short tests on zones 3 and 2 then go for the prize and have zone 1 on long term production test...


----------



## -merry

Sugarloaf-1 Well
Kennedy #1H is located some 1.6 km from the Sugarloaf-1 well where fraccing and testing operations were commenced last week. Fracture stimulation of the deepest of the three zones of gas shows and log interpreted potential gas pay in the Cretaceous age Austin Chalk Formation wascarried out on 11 September. The fracture stimulation operation terminated early after a premature screen-out halted pumping after only 6% of the planned proppant was placed in the formation. The reason for the screen-out is not known.
Proppant in the well bore is presently being washed out by a work-over rig prior to running tubing to test the zone. Some intermittent gas is being recovered during this operation. The significance of the gas shows will not be known until test operations are completed. Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available.

has anyone ever heard of a screen-out?? Whats that??


----------



## sbop

CRRRRAP! .... oh well another delay.... should have seen that coming.   Bright side is its another buying opportunity, get another couple of pay cheques into it. 
Little hard trading with out   market depth though...   

Gotta ask could they have told us earlier? ... obviously they diliberately held off  so they could soften the blow with the news of Kennedy.


----------



## Agentm

they had decompression, so you stop..  now they have to clean up the well, log it and trace the source.. 

just a delay,, no damage to the formation, nothing to be concerned about.  I had a quick chat with adi before and they are not concerned about the situation, just frustrating to have a further delay.

gas shows are still there.. the well is fine,, just a little bit of a mess with all the sand down there.. so wash out time!!

also kennedy 1H was spudded. nice news..

hope it helps


----------



## -merry

so... a premature screen out is basically decompression that happened to early? what could have caused it? any ideas agent??


----------



## Agentm

they wont know until they clean it up and log it..

*Some intermittent gas is being recovered during this operation. The significance of the gas shows will not be known until test operations are completed.
*

Kennedy #1H
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that the Kennedy #1H exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, commenced drilling at 1830 hours Texas time on 17 September 2007. At report time (0600 hours on 18 September 2007, Texas time) the well had reached a depth of 565 feet in 17.5 inch diameter hole and was drilling ahead. The proposed total depth of Kennedy#1H is 17,570 feet (5,360 metres) which includes a horizontal section of approximately 5,000 feet (1,525 metres) to be drilled through the Austin Chalk Formation at a vertical depth of approximately 12,000 feet. The zone to be targeted by this horizontal section is believed to correlate with the producing section in the Sugarkane Field discovery well which is located some 8 km to the west of Kennedy #1H.
On a trouble-free basis the prognosed drilling time for this well is about 45 days.

Sugarloaf-1 Well

Kennedy #1H is located some 1.6 km from the Sugarloaf-1 well where fraccing and testing operations were commenced last week. Fracture stimulation of the deepest of the three zones of gas shows and log interpreted potential gas pay in the Cretaceous age Austin Chalk Formation was carried out on 11 September 2007. The fracture stimulation operation terminated early after a premature screen-out halted pumping after only 6% of the planned proppant was placed in the formation. The reason for the screen-out is not known. Proppant in the well bore is presently being washed out by a work-over rig prior to
running tubing to test the zone. Some intermittent gas is being recovered during this operation. The significance of the gas shows will not be known until test operations are completed.
Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available.


----------



## chance fate

if they are running tubing to test the zone after clean up does it mean that they've blown the frac operation? i.e. they can't just clean up and frac again? hope the shows are actually useful...oh well...  at least there's 2 more zones to go... hope they get the frac right in those two operations...

PS...  don't bail out yet especially with all the confusion...  will just stand back and let those that know what's going on bail out instead....  ;-)


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> if they are running tubing to test the zone after clean up does it mean that they've blown the frac operation? i.e. they can't just clean up and frac again? hope the shows are actually useful...oh well... at least there's 2 more zones to go... hope they get the frac right in those two operations...
> 
> PS... don't bail out yet especially with all the confusion... will just stand back and let those that know what's going on bail out instead.... ;-)




i had no idea they couldnt frac any further,, thats news to me chance..

my impression when i spoke to adi was that they are cleaning it up, then logging it, the sands are slightly radioactive, so they can see where it may have given way..  if its a failure of the sqeeze cement then maybe they will do more remedial works and go again.. 

i am very happy they have the K1H well spudded, the set back on the frac is one thing, but TCEI going after the sugarkane is completely another..

they must have good test results at kunde 3 and are happy to go after the sugarkane again!!

i dont view the sugarkane as just being confined to our 20,000 acres, nor to it being confined to the 600 odd acres conocophillips has,  i see it as 200,000 acre play.. and its obvious TCEI has enough data to be confident on the suagrkane..


----------



## -merry

Agentm said:


> they wont know until they clean it up and log it..
> 
> *Some intermittent gas is being recovered during this operation. The significance of the gas shows will not be known until test operations are completed.
> *




ahhhh okay.. I just thought that maybe you knew common causes for such a thing or something like that.


----------



## Agentm

-merry said:


> ahhhh okay.. I just thought that maybe you knew common causes for such a thing or something like that.




you have to wait for the test results for the multi tcf answer..  

its obvious the message is put there and never needed to be added.. its something you add if your trying portray a picture in my view..

gas shows are gas shows,, it means nothing,, they are saying they have perforated and have 6% frac done when they stopped, and are recovering gas... make your own mind up why its there.. i sure as heck dont think its mentioned for nothing!


----------



## chance fate

...  agent... i'm not an expert on frac or anything... but my understanding of a screen-out is that the frac proppant has been squeezed as hard as possible into the formation and fraccing has stopped because the particles in the proppant have built up to the extent that no further fluid can push on into the formation - without raising the pump pressure to a level where it damages equipment...  i don't know what remedial work could be done in that situation... maybe back flow and see if any of the backed up proppant comes out??  i'm only guessing it may be possible to get some idea of reservoir performance from testing the limited fracced zone now....  that's why i'm assuming they're running tubing to do the tests directly now and then move on...  maybe the permeability is good enough already...  but if that is the case why bother fraccing??  zone 3 in practice doesn't look good to me now despite it's potential...  maybe kennedy 1 can pick it up i.e. drill a little deeper into zone 3 back up from there and then kick off the horizontal section higher up...??

PS whoever is bailing out of adi and eka seems to be buying into AUT...  which hasn't suffered from this announcement????


----------



## -merry

Agentm said:


> you have to wait for the test results for the multi tcf answer..
> 
> its obvious the message is put there and never needed to be added.. its something you add if your trying portray a picture in my view..
> 
> gas shows are gas shows,, it means nothing,, they are saying they have perforated and have 6% frac done when they stopped, and are recovering gas... make your own mind up why its there.. i sure as heck dont think its mentioned for nothing!




hrmm.. not sure if we're talking about the same thing... i was thinking more about common causes for premature screen-outs during fracture stimulation... like if theres multi tcf gas waiting to explode out of the drillhole or something of that sort : (i.e. good news) hehe


----------



## Agentm

chance

i will wait for ADI to announce again whats happening.. All i know is that the situation is a "nuisance" and i was told it was viewed the in terms of "nuetral" as to having any any impact on the progam on the well,, i understood they were cleaning up the sands then running logs to diagnose the reason for the sudden decompression, something gave way, so they need to check it.. you can guess all you like, but it wasnt as you describe, i was told decompression, you maintain it was inabilty for fluids to run as a result of blockages??

why not ring chris at ADI and get some idea,, your obviously good at understanding the processes of it, and he would gladly help you understand it.. but from what i gather the well decompressed, not compressed, and they stopped.. rest will be found out in the coming days..

The best news i feel is the spudding of the K1H well.. its not being discussed currently buy i view it as significant in terms of ADI pathway into being a producer, i am convinced the horizontals are the focus of the development of the chalks, and as much as the testing of the chalks is delayed, i still maintain TCEI is not progressing on without talking into account all that was learned in the kunde wells,

the fact kunde 2 is also drilling directionally makes it very positive news this week.


----------



## chance fate

agent...  not sure if i hope you're right...  but anyhow a neutral outcome would be ok for now...  if the well decompressed that could mean there was a screen out followed by the (remedial?) cement job giving way as they increased the pressure.... so then i'm wondering where did the fluid go?? and if it did give way maybe the gas shows are coming from another zone via the broken cement....  maybe they're going to run wireline logs to check the cement integrity??... oh well.. we'll find out in due course....  i'm also like you happy Kenedy-1 has spudded without results from sugarloaf1  roughly only 30 days until we get to depth... then 15 for the horizontal bit.... doubt all the SL operations will be finished in 30 days for them to make drilling decisions based on SL1 results...  so they're going into it with some confidence....


----------



## mick z

screenout

1.  n.  [Well Completions] ID: 2802 

A condition that occurs when the solids carried in a treatment fluid, such as proppant in a fracture fluid, create a bridge across the perforations or similar restricted flow area. This creates a sudden and significant restriction to fluid flow that causes a rapid rise in pump pressure.  
2.  n.  [Well Workover and Intervention] ID: 4759 

A condition encountered during some gravel-pack operations whereby the treatment area cannot accept further pack sand and a sudden increase in treatment pressure occurs. Under ideal conditions, this should signify that the entire void area has been successfully packed with sand. However, if screenout occurs early in the treatment, it may indicate an incomplete treatment and the presence of undesirable voids within the pack zone.


----------



## Agentm

mick z said:


> screenout
> 
> 1. n. [Well Completions] ID: 2802
> 
> A condition that occurs when the solids carried in a treatment fluid, such as proppant in a fracture fluid, create a bridge across the perforations or similar restricted flow area. This creates a sudden and significant restriction to fluid flow that causes a rapid rise in pump pressure.
> 2. n. [Well Workover and Intervention] ID: 4759
> 
> A condition encountered during some gravel-pack operations whereby the treatment area cannot accept further pack sand and a sudden increase in treatment pressure occurs. Under ideal conditions, this should signify that the entire void area has been successfully packed with sand. However, if screenout occurs early in the treatment, it may indicate an incomplete treatment and the presence of undesirable voids within the pack zone.





maybe read lotire on advfn,, and your definitions fly out the door..


i will repeat this again, phone adi if your unsure about things..

*Lotire** - 19 Sep'07 - 08:32 - 56876 of 56886*


loxley your an idiot give me patients with muppets like you.


A screen out is when the fluid leaks away due to decompression and the proppant is left behind being to heavy/viscous to pump you wont find that in any google page you will look up and C+P because these are my own words..... 




hope this helps you guys a little.. its not always the case that a google answer fits the picture so to speak..


as i said before,

the best news today was the spudding of kennedy 1H well,  its not being discussed as all attention is fixated on the screenout..  once its mopped up they well will be logged and then we can expect an announcement.

hope this helps..


----------



## chance fate

...agent ...  I think Mike Z might trump that one, his definition comes from a higher authority i.e. the Gods of oil field things (!? except halliburton and maybe Baker and.....) Schlumberger Glossary at http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=screenout

...but can definitely see why decompression would occur... on the down stream side of the screenout the pressure would indeed decrease as the proppant particles are holding back flow...  but you wouldn't see that at surface straight away...  only after you stop pumping...  another thought is fraccing may have started going laterally in the area upstream of the screen out i.e. not in the cement but in the formation but closer to the perforations...  

...as you indicate we (and it seems adi) can only speculate what is really going on at this stage.......  but personally a bit rattled today...  at this moment i've got a feeling that the chalks in this zone have very poor permeability....


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> ...agent ... I think Mike Z might trump that one, his definition comes from a higher authority i.e. the Gods of oil field things (!? except halliburton and maybe Baker and.....) Schlumberger Glossary at http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=screenout
> 
> ...but can definitely see why decompression would occur... on the down stream side of the screenout the pressure would indeed decrease as the proppant particles are holding back flow... but you wouldn't see that at surface straight away... only after you stop pumping... another thought is fraccing may have started going laterally in the area upstream of the screen out i.e. not in the cement but in the formation but closer to the perforations...
> 
> ...as you indicate we (and it seems adi) can only speculate what is really going on at this stage....... but personally a bit rattled today... at this moment i've got a feeling that the chalks in this zone have very poor permeability....





its great to see the expert opinion on the geology from a few sentences in the announcement.. and a google reference..  see lotire answer above....

I again stress to everyone to ring the management if your unsure about the announcement.. dont believe all you read, theres a great deal of misinformation being thrown around deliberately right now to shake the sp up in my view!!!  watch out!!

now again i think the single best announcement this YEAR!!!!!!  has just been announced,  as much as everyone is dead keen to ignore it..

KENNEDY 1 H  spudded,, its a horizontal well currently permitted to drill into the PROVEN sugarkane play. current estimates for the suagrkane zone is 600 bcf to 1TCF..


----------



## Agentm

hope this helps

*quattro44** - 19 Sep'07 - 09:57 - 56938 of 56942*


I shall attempt to summarize the above points as a person who worked for Halliburton doing frac jobs for many years.

Hydraulic Fracturing is the process of creating a fracture in a porous medium by injecting a fluid under pressure great enough to cause failure in that medium.

Proppant (spherical and rounded Sand or synthetic sand of average size about 0.50mm) is mixed with the fluid at surface so that it follows the fluid into the fractures and on pressure release remains trapped in the fractures allowing permeable flow back into the well bore greater than before fracturing.

Fracturing is an extremely complex procedure with many variables, but the essential items are that the fluid MUST be kept moving in order to maintain proppant mobility, and the proppant concentration must not be allowed to increase above optimum. The result of either the fluid slowing or the concentration getting too high will cause proppant drop-out or 'screening out'.

Screening out can happen anywhere in the well bore or in the tubing or in the formation. It can even happen at surface in the pumps or the mixing blenders. Once proppant becomes immobile it is effectively a solid and can only be washed out slowly.

There are many reasons why a planned fracturing job can stop early :

-the design was incorrect and the formation was not able to fracture as expected and the fractures did not materialize. One always starts a fracturing job with pure fluid to initiate the fractures so the proppant has somewhere to go once introduced. If the fractures are only small - sufficient to take fluid but not much proppant - then you will get early screenout.

- Too high a concentration of proppant added at some point.

- A sudden increase in pressure forcing a slowdown in fluid pumping velocity allowing proppant to drop out and screen off the fractures. (This is what happens towards the end of a fracture job as standard)

- a sudden down hole drop in pressure from a cement bond failure, or a screen failure or a massive fracture being created which allows the proppant to 'fall' rather than be pumped or carried thus causing screen out.

- Poor perforating of the casing which allows fluid through but very little proppant.

Etc etc and hence why they do not immediately know.

Fracturing is such a common thing these days, especially in Texas, with immense experience that an error in design is extremely unlikely. Screen outs are also very common and mean nothing but just that - a screen out. They will clean it out and try again or test the well as is to attain essential information.
It is always possible that the fracture already created, although it only took 6% of the design proppant, could have overcome the lack of permeability to the well bore and the well will flow satisfactorily for these initial testing purposes. Early indications of gas in the returns is obviously encouraging.

Nothing to worry about imho dyor etc.

q44


----------



## chance fate

agent ....not sure if you are refering to me but I aint no geo expert/nor claim it... trying to piece things together for myself (and sharing that for some counter argument if it's out there/anyone interested) from the few facts that we have into something that makes some engineering sense and can reduce the uncertainty as to what could be going on (can claim to be a mech eng with a some few years O&G experience if that helps)...  anyhow... taking another angle..it could also be that permeability is really very good and the reason being the high permeability allowed the carrier fluid to leak away quickly and left the proppant behind...??  but then back to what I said earlier..  why do a frac job if the permeability is already very good?... that's why i reckon it doesn't look good....is that reasonable?... the share price is obviously reacting to what is on the table now and hopefully as a backstop will recover whatever the SL outcome on the back of K1H...  but reckon we're in for as much volatility as there are reasons for what's going on until we hear something definitive from the Jv's


----------



## chance fate

Agentm said:


> hope this helps
> 
> 
> - a sudden down hole drop in pressure from a cement bond failure, or a screen failure or a massive fracture being created which allows the proppant to 'fall' rather than be pumped or carried thus causing screen out.
> 
> 
> 
> q44




thanks agent...That might be another sequence of events that could explain it...  i.e. the cement job failed, the fluid leaked off (hence the decompression) elsewhere through the cement into another zone leaving proppant stuck in zone 3 causing the screenout...  maybe need another remedial cement job...?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Although its dissappointing for a further delay it still seemed a very positive announcement.
6% Fraced gas flows are noted Kenedy 1# spudded just  a ring of positive feel about there language.
Lets hope problems encountered during fraccing dont take as long too resolve as the NT well


----------



## nioka

Interesting posts today but has it really been a case of the return of the Groundhog curse? Or is it that fraccing is a problem in many cases. VPE had failures in this department and so has LKO???? I'm losing patience.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> Interesting posts today but has it really been a case of the return of the Groundhog curse? Or is it that fraccing is a problem in many cases. VPE had failures in this department and so has LKO???? I'm losing patience.




they appear to be going on with the flow test. so its a minor delay, no doubt if they get flow they would reconsider a second frac.

i think too many are reading too much into it IMHO, but its part of the highs and lows og O&G exploration,  we had a seemless well up till now,  and first incident over a minor matter, and the panic sets in.

as i have said before, nothing in my research tells me anything else except TCEI is totally locked on to developing the chalks with conocphillips.. i will remain in this share as long as this continues.. which from all appearances is extending further with Kunde 2 directional and with Kennedy 1H, which spudded 3 days ago.


----------



## Agentm

i wont be brief..

the next few weeks are critical in timing, and its day 3 on kennedy 1H, and the next 3 days they lay the casing, then 12 days drill to 11658 feet. that means TCEI has a few weeks to decide which zone to go after with which well.. SL1 flow testing has to go ahead as the wells are going in all over the shop now.

there are many things i can see happening in the near term.

1/ I believe the jvp's will release their annual report simaltaneously.

2/ I believe the directional well being drilled by conocophillps will have four things happen to it, 
(a) it will use the Nabors 775 rig to drill the well
(b) the Sl1 test will ultimately decide which of the lower two zoned they will drill next
(c) the kunde 2 well will be amended to become a horizontal and drilla 4000 foot to the SW corner of the lease as far as it can with impeaching the neighbouring leases.
(d) EME will be a jvp in that horizontal when its decided in the next two weeks which zone they will drill into.

3/ i believe at the same time the SL1 well will also drill into the same zone as the Kunde 2 horizontal. (based on the test of the sugarkane being good, therefor making K1H a sugarkane well, and the new wells SL1 and K2 will go for the new zones as amended permits that will wildcat the zone as horizontals.)

4/ i am absolutely certain the only thing stopping the announcements is the delay in waiting for the test result of sl1 on that all important zone 3.. any good flow IMHO will greenlight the next phase..

5/ i am convinced the claims the project is multi tcf are absolutely genuine.. and all my research indicates and reinforces this.


6/ 27 NEW LEASES (with at least 5 on our immediate acreages) went in over night in karnes (bad luck XTO, i can see TCEI has gazumped you)... 

also another 166 acre lease in Bee county.. very nice and next to the 800 odd acres late last month... and usually the later scouting data will show more leases today..

7/ i cannot see anything other than relentless ongoing planning, leases, permits and testing thats indicitive of a mighty big announcement!!!!

sell out now if you think its good as it gets..

dont wait too long if your hanging around on the sidelines.. things are starting to happen!!


all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## fflintoff

Rev Couch recognised:-

“We have received several emails indicating our Director of Exploration, Charles Couch, was recognized in the September issue of Oil & Gas Investor as one of the leading influential people in the Oil & Gas Industry”

( CBO )

http://www.centralbasinoil.com/newsarticle.asp?ID=27


----------



## Agentm

and the Rev Couch is to be praised to high heaven for his insightful sermons!!

Bell potter 20 sept 07

*The other main new disclosure was that the total Sugarkane field had a reserve potential in the Upper Austen chalk of more than 3 trillion cubic feet gas and 500 million barrels condensate. [That does not include the 2 lower zones that are being be tested at the moment*


but our man charles had a revelation in sept 06.......

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
*Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.*

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ *looks very oil productive*. *The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone*. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


praise the rev couch for that revelation!!


----------



## fflintoff

KUNDE Gas Well #:  1  
Prod Month Range:  Sept 2006 - Aug 2007 

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/PR/p...1N8TTqwpV7yB7p2pSfnTLntB!-468789238!-55693300



 Production Reports  

 PR Queries Home   New Lease ID's Built Query    


  Query Results Production by Lease



Current Operator:  BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333) District: 02 
Field:  SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS) RRC Identifier:  225297 
Lease:  KUNDE Gas Well #:  1  
Prod Month Range:  Sept 2006 - Aug 2007 Lease Type:  Gas 


     Showing:  13 -  12 of  12 results  

Oil/Condensate (Whole Barrels) Gas/Casinghead Gas - MCF 
Prod Month Commingle
Permit No. On Hand
Beginning of Month Production Disposition On Hand
End of Month Formation
Production Disposition 
Volume Code Volume Code 
09/2006  0 3,615 3,301 01 314 11,552 180 01 
                 11,372  02 
10/2006  314 3,702 3,478 01 538 13,460 310 01 
                 13,150  02 
11/2006  538 1,223 1,106 01 655 4,450 125 01 
                 4,325  02 
12/2006  655 3,592 3,669 01 578 12,358 310 01 
                 12,048  02 
01/2007  578 2,720 2,811 01 487 10,870 305 01 
                 10,565  02 
02/2007  487 2,814 2,929 01 372 10,540 840 01 
                 9,700  02 
03/2007  372 2,387 2,287 01 472 9,708 930 01 
                 8,778  02 
04/2007  472 2,328 2,116 01 684 9,150 900 01 
                 8,250  02 
05/2007  684 2,335 2,344 01 675 9,603 930 01 
                 8,673  02 
06/2007  675 2,213 2,402 01 486 9,775 900 01 
                 8,875  02 
07/2007  486 2,063 1,995 01 554 9,126 930 01 
                 8,196  02 
08/2007   NO REPORT ON FILE 

  [ < Previous ]   |  Page:  1  of  1   


Lease Comments 
04/05/2007 e-mailed Dorsey for schedule start date 







Disclaimer | RRC Online Home | RRC Home | Contact


----------



## Agentm

*The Sugarkane Field*
The “Sugarkane” field is a trap of around 50 kilometres by 20 kilometres. Unlike the well-known Austin Chalk fields, which produce from fractures in tight chalk, *the Sugarkane field has porous chalk, apparently as a result of early oil entrapment*. The Sugarkane vertical discovery well is highlighted in the attachment and this well, owned by Connoco-Phillips and Texas Crude, a private US company, has been producing gas and condensate for the past year. The gas has an exceptionally large condensate content (more than 250 barrels per million cubic feet of gas) so the oil (condensate) production is worth more than the gas.


----------



## Agentm

*The total Sugarkane field has been outlined by 11 holes*, including the discovery which has been producing for almost a year. *All 11 wells intersected the Austin chalk and all had shows and log interpreted gas zones*. Sugarkane appears to be a significant new discovery but requires confirmatory drilling and testing.
The biggest challenge at Sugarkane is likely to be in working out how to best develop the discovery to maximise returns. It is believed that horizontal wells with fracture stimulation of the chalk is the best way to go and the Joint venture has started the Kennedy horizontal development well next.


are you guys keeping up with the 11 wells???


kunde 3 is all fine:

*The horizontal well drilled by Texas Gulf 6 kilometres to the west looks to have been most successful*.


We are drilling the Kennedy 1H well not on guesswork,, its based on 11 wells and a successful horizontal]I hope the penny drops in the near term,... the sp is an absolute steal


----------



## Evangeline

My God!  Everything Couch said is now confirmed.  This is so exciting!  

Agentm - do you have any idea as to the prospectivity of AUT's extra acreage?  It is still in the Sugarkane I gather.

It might be worthwhile to get some AUT as well.  I did not think they were such a good buy since they have about double the shares out there.  What do people think?

Hold on tight folks - looks to be quite a ride!!!


----------



## resourceboom

Hi Evangeline, I have held ADI and EKAO for a fair while now.
After AUTs latest presentation I bought some AUT too, so now hold all 3.

Whilst AUT has double the shares they have more then double the net acreage, so I think it should do very well too, assuming they are quick to develop their extra interests.


----------



## Evangeline

Their partner in these acreages is TCEI - who have apparently been researching the areas in question for 12 yrs according to AUTs website - so I can't imagine TCEI would just let the whole thing slide.  Agentm has just been so spot on in all of this.

I would guess that AUT would be looking to use their cashflow from the Sugarloaf joint venture to develop their interests in Longhorn etc.  The 11 wells appear to be adjacent to these areas also - so they should get a good idea from that.

ADI are poised to make the most money in the nearer terms as Sugarloaf is now up and beginning to run - but for the longer term a punt in AUT may keep the money coming if all goes to plan.

I was surprised actually that the upside mentioned in the BP report for ADI was not more - but they are not taking into account the other two zones I gather?  

Anyway none of it has happened yet - I have to remind myself to keep from dreaming while I am awake!


----------



## resourceboom

Yeah, was still a little surprised in the valuation differences...

I think the risks in holding the JVP's now is:
1) the field not proving up as well as expected (low-med I reckon)
2) the vertical flow rates cause st weakness (higher risk but short term)

I'm waiting for the K3 results, apparently from the UK BB someone spoke to EME, and they are waiting on getting in a test team, but the shows in the well were very strong.

mmmm yeah, almost continuous gas shows, and 60 ft flares, thats more like it.  Hope we get the same with Kennedy-1.... mmm


----------



## Agentm

its a broker report..

its by a broker i respect,, but be warned...

1/ i am told he is a sustantail holder in AUT and the jvp..

2/ AUT used this firm to capital raise.. they are hardly going to paint a negative picture are they..


I personally have never invested on the sole word of a broker,, never used them and never will..  DYOR and use their reports to your advantage.. not theirs!!

AUT have no cash to develop a field like this,, no cash and no chance,, if you think their shares are thined out now,, wait until they have to capital raise to develop this field,,

the prime acreages, which in answer to your question eva, is the acreages the jvp we are in has, 20,000 acres, and is all about developing the field and as a group, all jvp's stand a great chance of making a killing here if they work as a team and achieve the goals they set,, but the AUT boys are way out of their league thinking they can take on that sort of acreages.. IMHO their ipanema and longhorn zones can not be developed with the capital they have, they have already announced their plans on how long they intend to stay in the project.. and they wont be able to achieve the goal of developing all the acreages in that time frame.. only CP can.. no one else!!! just do the sums on what sort of cash they need to have on ahnd to develop this play,, IMHO they will sell out as they planned..

the lease buying thats been going on and the forward planning of wells will be amazing,, in a very  short time the jvp's have to announce something, as i see leases that need a well on them!!  things are going very close to the wire here..

i like adi as the directors very own cash is in it,, they have not capital raised like AUT have and eka have.. ADI are cash rich,, have a well planned agenda,, have let things go to achieve success at SL,, and they wont be giving the SL  project away as they have ARQ and the major holders, including me,, behind them all the way!!

IMHO the BP report is good in what it reveals,, but it doesnt make me want to buy AUT. just put a close watch on them... the AUT boys set up EKA just to get more exposure to sugarloaf,, and get more options and freebies..  i dont have a problem with anyone making a buck ,, but when its not your own hard earned dollars,, then you tend to give it away feely too,, the directors at adi have not been loading themselves up on freebies..  and i have seen the AUT and EKA shareraising and IMHO, they were poorly timed and managed..

I research follow the people in the top 20 at ADI,,  they are clever people.. and i know the management at ADI, so thats why i enjoy being in this share..

ADI has a future ahead of it,, it intends to go somewhere..

Indonesia, yemen, africa, gulf coast, thailand, offshore WA..

all those projects are equally high risk high reward..

but ultimately,  you have to understand,, even brokers can be biased..

all IMHO and i am sure everyone will DYOR



 now back to the 11 wells.. anyone want to discuss them?


----------



## Agentm

1well  Pogue
2well  sugarloaf1
3well  Kunde 1
4well  Kunde 2
5well  Kunde 3
6well  Meeks 1
7well
8well
9well
10well
11well

ok  lets see who knows what around here..

fill in the missing wells and lets see if your research matches up..

(will post it on HC and UK bb also and see who fills it in first) my cash is on the uk boys!!


----------



## fflintoff

"..they have already announced their plans on how long they intend to stay in the project.. and they wont be able to achieve the goal of developing all the acreages in that time frame.. only CP can.. no one else!!!"

"IMHO they will sell out as they planned.."

Agentm,
AUT might exit in under 24 months as per their latest corporate presentation:-

Where Will We Be in 24 Months?
Aspiration -High Growth Large Mid-Cap
All projects have hydrocarbons present
“Sugarkane”regional play includes Sugarloaf, Longhorn and Ipanema and has the potential for significant reserves onshore
North Belridge has the potential for >6million barrels of oil net to AUT onshore California
Gone?
Major upside projects are of a size to interest large companies
Sale of Assets?
Distribution of capital
Continue with balance of assets
New projects

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070905/pdf/314d0fj2q22q03.pdf

page 20


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> and the Rev Couch is to be praised to high heaven for his insightful sermons!!
> 
> Bell potter 20 sept 07
> 
> *The other main new disclosure was that the total Sugarkane field had a reserve potential in the Upper Austen chalk of more than 3 trillion cubic feet gas and 500 million barrels condensate. [That does not include the 2 lower zones that are being be tested at the moment*
> 
> 
> but our man charles had a revelation in sept 06.......
> 
> Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
> We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
> *Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.*
> 
> The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ *looks very oil productive*. *The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone*. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.
> 
> 
> praise the rev couch for that revelation!!





One day on a visit to Texas to check on my investment I will have to buy him a beer thats for sure!!
 THANKS CHARLIE


----------



## Agentm

Flint..

i agree on AUT exiting,, and the way i see it is if your not serious about seeing it through, then how serious are you about getting value for your shareholders..

Tarz ...  couch won an industry award relating to O&G exploring..  nice to see there is some further credibilty extending to him..

great start to the week.. suddenly there is a thirst for adi stock..


----------



## Evangeline

Tomorrow we may get an update on SL1 and Kennedy.

Looking in the Bell Potter report:

"The Sugarkane discovery well....owned by Connoco-Phillips and TCEI...has been producing gas and condensate for the past year ..."

Then in the AUT presentation:

"Sugarloaf1 logs and shows identical to the Sugarkane discovery well"

It does seem promising...

Eva


----------



## Agentm

eva,, i thought you were on top of the top 20 list

trojan make their move,, the recent share buying is trojan capital and trojan retirement fund..

so the boys are in finally!!!

welcome aboard.. and enjoy the ride..

i like the way troy works..


i think once he arrives others will follow!!


*TROY JOHN HARRY - MANAGING DIRECTOR*

The Manager's officer primarily responsible for making investment decisions is Troy Harry.
Troy Harry is the founder and Managing Director of the Manager. He has a deep understanding of the Australian stock market, with more than 13 years experience in the Australian securities industry.
From April 1998 until July 2003, Troy was employed by ABN AMRO Morgans Limited in Brisbane where he advised a range of mostly high net worth individuals and small institutions. The advice provided was mostly regarding special situations identified by Troy and he developed a reputation among his clients for being able to identify undervalued asset situations. In July 2003, Troy resigned from ABN AMRO Morgans Limited to concentrate his efforts on his own business.
Concurrently with his roles at ABN AMRO Morgans Limited and Trojan Investment Management Pty Ltd, from November 2002 to June 2004, Troy acted as Managing Director of Harbour Capital Limited ('Harbour') (now Metals Exploration Limited). Harbour was an investment company listed on ASX with investments in royalties in Western Australia and private equity investments in greater China. Troy oversaw a significant corporate restructuring during his time at Harbour, with Harbour's share price rising from $0.35 at the date of his appointment to $0.76 at the date of his retirement.
Troy is a director of a number of private companies and is a former director of several ASX listed companies. He has experience in financial analysis, modelling and structuring, and in advising and managing investment companies.
He holds a Bachelor of Business (Banking and Finance) degree from the Queensland University of Technology and is a Fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australia and a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.


----------



## Evangeline

I wish!

However I did a print out dated 11th September of the top 20 and Trojan had already bought in then- 900k for the retirement fund and 500k for the Capital fund.

So whoever was buying on Monday was not Trojan.  Mr Thomas Brian Cannon has been steadily buying up -from 550k on 24th of August to 698k as of 24th September.  ANZ have bought a few more and so has Citicorp  - but only a few k here and there.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> I wish!
> 
> However I did a print out dated 11th September of the top 20 and Trojan had already bought in then- 900k for the retirement fund and 500k for the Capital fund.
> 
> So whoever was buying on Monday was not Trojan. Mr Thomas Brian Cannon has been steadily buying up -from 550k on 24th of August to 698k as of 24th September. ANZ have bought a few more and so has Citicorp - but only a few k here and there.





ok.. my mistake..  your off the hook for now..


would be nice to get a mid week operational report happening again..  i imagine the patterson rig crew are at their finest (fingers crossed)

no news is good news for me at the moment on SL1..


----------



## Evangeline

Well it doesn't look like we'll be getting an update today.  The last couple of weeks they've arrived just after 2.00

Hopefully it means they're very busy testing the flow!


----------



## resourceboom

The AUT update today conspicuously had no metion of any kane or kennedy update!! the wait goes on still!!


----------



## Agentm

resource,

my data tells me they are no further than 6100 on the kennedy 1H well, when they get to 6100 they will cement it back to the surface. once thats done its a 8 3/4 bit to 11658, taking 12 days , then a 4 day turn to 12,600 (MD).. hey thats odd! thats almost the same depth as kunde 2!!

SL1, is news blackout... and for good reasons too!

cheers


----------



## Evangeline

What do you mean - "For good reasons too" - what motivation could they have now for keeping everyone in the dark?


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> What do you mean - "For good reasons too" - what motivation could they have now for keeping everyone in the dark?




its essential to keep everyone in the dark..

look at the announcements GDN have made over the past 12 months, look closely at the bold and highlighted sections, and the overuse  of the word commercial.

eva, the chalks are not like the edwards or wilcox, they are very tricky plays. TCEi would not release any news, so remember that. CP allows no news to surface.. ADI has to release according to the rules of the ASX, so look at the sept 2006 releases of adi and how the announced what they then understood to be potentially a multi tcf play!

what if adi hyped it like GDN,, got the sp to $1.50 or more??  then afterwards go it all wrong, the investors at the $1.50price would be furious as the sp collapsed to .35...

GDN went to $1.20 and back to .10 in a heartbeat!! 

the area they are testing is significant, very important to CP TCEi and to our JVP, we have to be sure about the zone 3 play, 100% sure when your talking the sort of dollars that are about to flow in the forward well program.. so a news blackout is absolutely critical right now, any leaks would be foolish. 

ADI have investors who dont like and dont really need massive sp fluctuations, they are waiting for results, definititive results, then at each stage of the program they can make decisions to either increase of decrease their exposure, and lately you have picked up some increases!!

eric would never allow foolish announcements, he is reponsible for ARQ also, so we see conservative approaches to the sugarkane, and we see very very cautious reporting.. with a recent flavour of bullishness..

think of the three zones as seperate zones, one is absolutely proven, we are drilling into that with kennedy 1H.. 

what will happen if the SL1 well gets commercial flow or flow that going to be commercial with the use of horizontals?? do we get naming rights??

think laterally, think about the name of the well,, think about what couchys remark on what first phase success meant!!  to me it meant sugarkane was the success multi tcf..  but the well isnt called suagrkane, its sugarloaf!!  so whats its objective!!  i leave that to you to ponder!! i have my own ideas about that..

this well, this play has massive upside potential.. and right now there is no way any early news could be favourable to anyone.. 

no news is good news!!


----------



## Agentm

and we can still expect no more news for a while longer..

*SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE *​*Kennedy #1H *
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 26 September, 2007 the Kennedy #1H exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA was at a depth of 6,100’ (1,860 metres) and installing blow out preventers after having run and cemented casing. The proposed total depth for this well is 17,570 feet Measured Depth. 
*Sugarloaf-1 Well *
Since our last report of 19 September frac sand (proppant) has been drilled and washed from the well bore. Operations were then suspended pending repair of surface equipment. Running of tubing for flow testing the first zone is expected to commence after repairs are completed. 
Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available.


----------



## wallave

Sugarloaf-1 Well 
Since our last report of 19 September frac sand (proppant) has been drilled and washed from the well bore. Operations were then suspended pending repair of surface equipment. Running of tubing for flow testing the first zone is expected to commence after repairs are completed. 
Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available.


I wonder what the timeframe for the repairs to be completed.  Probably a couple of weeks I'd assume.


----------



## Agentm

if it was a major rig repair then there would have been more details given, most rigs are bolt on bolt off type of units, and its just a case of running down the road to your local store and picking up a 200 hp pump or a mud logger or what ever off the shelf and putting in on the F100 and bolting it on!!

its most likely days only in delays..

we had a perfect run in the drill, the screen out is beyond anyones ability to predict, its happened, and could have been a number of factors there.

the rig repair, thats always going to happen in drilling opertions, thats not a big deal in any case. just an inconvenience..

the well is being prepared for a flow test, which means the cleanout was successful, they tested the wells integrity, and we are not hearing they have to redo the cement squeeze, so the reasons for the screenout are narrowing down into the more positive regions in my view. (geology rather than well failure)

cant see any negative news here today. only gives a slightly more optimistic view on the screenout perhaps.


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> if it was a major rig repair then there would have been more details given, most rigs are bolt on bolt off type of units, and its just a case of running down the road to your local store and picking up a 200 hp pump or a mud logger or what ever off the shelf and putting in on the F100 and bolting it on!!
> 
> its most likely days only in delays..
> 
> we had a perfect run in the drill, the screen out is beyond anyones ability to predict, its happened, and could have been a number of factors there.
> 
> the rig repair, thats always going to happen in drilling opertions, thats not a big deal in any case. just an inconvenience..
> 
> the well is being prepared for a flow test, which means the cleanout was successful, they tested the wells integrity, and we are not hearing they have to redo the cement squeeze, so the reasons for the screenout are narrowing down into the more positive regions in my view. (geology rather than well failure)
> 
> cant see any negative news here today. only gives a slightly more optimistic view on the screenout perhaps.




THIS ONE SOUNDS BETTER.

Empyrean Energy Sugarloaf Update


RNS Number:5976E
Empyrean Energy PLC
27 September 2007



Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Blocks A & B, Texas USA
----------------------------------------------------------


TCEI JV Block A-1 Well
----------------------

The operator has advised that the fracture stimulation and testing of the zones
of interest that produced multiple hydrocarbon shows and gas flares in the TCEI
JV Block A-1 Well, during drilling, may involve specialist monitoring and
interpretation techniques that require equipment to be placed in a nearby well
bore during the fracture stimulation operations. At this stage the operator
intends to use the TCEI JV Block A-2 Well, for this specific purpose. The
information gained from this analysis will assist the operator in determining
the efficacy of the fracture stimulation techniques and further help to
establish the best way to develop the reservoir. Fracture stimulation and
testing operations will therefore likely commence on the TCEI JV Block A-1 Well
following the completion of drilling the TCEI JV Block A-2 Well. It is not
expected that this will affect the potential prospects for the TCEI JV Block A-2
Well in any way. The whole process is designed to maximise potential
productivity by utilising the best modern day techniques available.


Sugarloaf-1 Well (Block B)
--------------------------

Since our last report of 19 September Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") advises
that frac sand (proppant) has been drilled and washed from the well bore.
Running of tubing for flow testing the first zone is expected to commence
shortly.


Kennedy #1H Well (Block B)
--------------------------

TCEI has also advised that that at 6am Texas time on 26 September, 2007 the
Kennedy #1H exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas,
USA was at a depth of 6,100' (1,860 metres) and installing blow out preventers,
before preparing to drill ahead, after having run and cemented casing
successfully. The proposed total depth for this well is 17,570 feet Measured
Depth.

Further updates will be provided following developments.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

For further information: 

Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman 
Conduit PR 
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 / +44 (0) 7791 892 509 

Rod Venables / Cecil Jordaan 
HB Corporate 
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600 

Empyrean Energy plc 
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746 


This information is provided by RNS


----------



## Agentm

your going to have to wait at eme for the kunde 2 well to reach TD before they start testing the kunde 3. this could take some time!!

the tesing will be very very interesting, and be of value to the jvp we are in, we have 2 of out jvp's in that venture that possibly will gain insights from the testing..

all good news, and looking forward to the next update from adi!!


----------



## mpls

Do you think Kennedy H1 will test before Kunde#3.
I doubt it myself since Kunde#3, with the advantage of Kunde#2 monitoring, will provide the information to fracture Kennedy in the optimal way.

Remind me, is the Rig for Kunde#2 secured or not?


----------



## mpls

It will be the Nabors 775 rig?

This post from Father Ted was very close to the mark!

15th-September-2007, 02:37 PM
Father Ted's Avatar 	
Father Ted Father Ted is offline

<SNIP>

More interesting, is that the postion of the horizontal leg of the kunde 3 well - as shown on the new kunde 2 survey map - is different from that on the original kunde 3 survey.

It ends much closer to the bottom right hand corner of the field, nearer the well head. Its therefore shorter, than intended and runs out in a more westerly direction, at a dirrerent angle.

This means that the bottom is 611ft from the horizontal of kunde 3 - or is it?

either they have drilled kunde 3 somewhere different to where they said they were going to - or they have it wrong on the new survey map.

If its wrong on the new map - then kunde 2 would be a lot closer than 611 ft to kunde 3

the permit states that his well cannot be produced concurrently from the same reservoir as: Kunde Gas Unit #1 Well 3

*I wonder if this is looking for connectivity between the zones? (which they may be trying to do even if it is 611ft away.)*


----------



## Evangeline

Agentm (or anyone!)

I have attached a map of the 200,000 acres from the AUT presentation - with the 11 wells represented by stars.

The discovery well, Kennedy and SL1 are already labelled - but I am most interested in the names of the others and have numbered them 1 to 8.

Could you name them and perhaps tell us anything you know about them.  Sorry the pdf is a bit rough.

EVA


----------



## Father Ted

Just as I suspected, using an adjacent well to measure changes in pressure gradient across the reservoir as they control flow is a pretty cool bit of development technology. This is a very sophisticated operation.

One thing is certain, this is a smart outfit that will get the absolute maximum amount of gas out of the ground by using the best drilling technology - given time.

Its a bit disappointing that we now have to contend with two mumbo jumbo well names - but who cares.

FT


----------



## Agentm

Father Ted said:


> Just as I suspected, using an adjacent well to measure changes in pressure gradient across the reservoir as they control flow is a pretty cool bit of development technology. This is a very sophisticated operation.
> 
> One thing is certain, this is a smart outfit that will get the absolute maximum amount of gas out of the ground by using the best drilling technology - given time.
> 
> Its a bit disappointing that we now have to contend with two mumbo jumbo well names - but who cares.
> 
> FT




father ted, your divinity and insights amaze me every day.

you were spot on, and its very exciting news indeed. there is no doubt the kunde 3 well will be fraced for some time now, i am very convinced the kunde 2 well will be on the go in no time as EME mentioned it.

I would hope that kennedy 1H is not fraced until the kunde 1 well is completed..

i pray that your divinity continues and we see the genisis of a frac technique that will bring up that texas tea like no one thought possible!!

i begin to hear those elephants again...


----------



## fflintoff

EME has a 7.5% wi in Kunde #2. Confirmed in an e mail from management on the limey thread:-

mpls>

I have asked the question do eme have an active interest in TCEI JV Block A-2, I await a response.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Response related to the question I asked above note they now reference that a major is involved .....

Yes the TCEI JV Block A-2 well is part of the 16 well program - the 16 well program includes the next 16 wells (starting with TCEI JV Block A-1 well and Kennedy 1H well) drilled on either Block A or Block B. Block A wells we have a major operating and EME will have a 7.5% interest and Block B we have Texas Crude Energy operating and EME has an 18% interest.

Beyond that we have a 6% interest in further wells on Block B.


----------



## Evangeline

Where is everybody.  We might get an update tomorrow.  Trying to remember to breathe!  

I wonder if we'll have a run like inp (and then some).  I hope so.


----------



## greenfs

Evangeline said:


> Where is everybody.  We might get an update tomorrow.  Trying to remember to breathe!
> 
> I wonder if we'll have a run like inp (and then some).  I hope so.




Agent M must have gone on (school) holidays as he/she is pretty much the owner of this thread LOLOLol


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hopefully todays update will tell us repairs to the rig are complete and fracing has recommenced!
Then we will expect an announcement on flow results within a week!


----------



## tarzanhey

Lucky_Country said:


> Hopefully todays update will tell us repairs to the rig are complete and fracing has recommenced!
> Then we will expect an announcement on flow results within a week!





Lets hope we do get an update today  

It is a year since Couchies site was doctored and the evidence of the famous page moved to a secret place. But not a bit of it disproved.


just to remind us.

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success

We have drilled the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.

Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.


The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.


The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’


The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.


This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’


----------



## Agentm

enjoying the sun and surf right now..

the mid weekly seems to be missing. which says to me there is a plan afoot.

adi annouced 

"Further ASX announcements will be made as results from this test become available"

there is nothing to announce on Kennedy 1H.. its on the way to 11500 feet.

so now more than ever, no news is good news.. if there were further rig issues or any issues the news would be done as a midweekly..

interestingly there is no movement out of the share...

enjoy the calm before the storm..


----------



## fflintoff

Oil and Gas Division
Oil and Gas Proration Schedule Listed by Purchaser
Purchasers names beginning with the letter C (continued)
October 2007


02  SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS)           FLD NO. 86950500 NO
     BURLINGTON RESOURCES 225297 KUNDE              6758     6758     6758       0
                             FIELD TOTAL MONTHLY DELIVERABILITY       6758

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisions/og/purchasers/c-1.html


----------



## Agentm

any one thinking the same way right now..

the well has been cleaned up last week.. so TCEI must be testing something..

be nice to hear the news at some stage.

i am still convinced the chalks are the real deal here.. looking forward to any news releases


----------



## Lucky_Country

Will be interesting too see what readings we get from SL as it will not be the real deal as it is a vertical well.
Kenned #1 should really let the cat outta the bag!


----------



## Dums

Guys,
Appreciate a bit of assistance here... The flow rates per month published for the Kunde well in the posts above .... 6758 ... is this 6758 thousand of cfg/month .. 

If so,  it's essentially 6.7 million cfg/month which is about 0.2 million cfgpd ie. less than any of the producing EME Margarita shallow wells ...

This been the case, surely all the excitement is miss-placed given that it's a deep and very expensive well ...

Appreciate a steer for those of you who had a better education than I, or, didn't always sit in the back of the maths class !!

Cheers
Dums


----------



## cathald1

I think you willl find it is mcf 
This equates to about $50k us/month..................................................


----------



## Lucky_Country

Flow testing only days away Kennedy #1 going very smoothly hold onto your hats.
Seems like repairs have only just been completed so we could have a series of good news flow results from all 3 zones followed closely by Kennedy #1 testing.


----------



## vpayne

While we are waiting on sugarloaf etc, why has there been no move in activity from the participants in new taiton, they cannot be still in discussions as to the next step after all this time. Lets stir this up a bit.


----------



## Agentm

NT is shut in. nothing will happen there, i watch index oils announcements and all mention of NT is limited. AZZ went from announcing it as commercial, and announcing it in their future reserves, to declaring it shut in and making no mention currently.

Empyrean Energy PLC

("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
----------------------------

* Third well in the new 16 well deal with Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI")
has commenced drilling.

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc. that the TCEI JV Block A #2 well, the third well to be drilled as part of the recently announced 16 well deal has spudded on Block A.

As at 2pm (Texas time) on 4 October, the operator had made good drilling 
progress and *was drilling ahead at 7,555 feet*.



the kunde 2 well must have commenced drilling almost as soon as the approval went through on the 19th sept..



SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Kennedy #1H
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 4 October, 2007 the Kennedy #1H exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA *was drilling ahead at a depth of 9,975’* (3,041 metres). The proposed total depth for this well is 17,570 feet Measured Depth.



keneny 1H started drilling on the 17th Sept and is 2200 feet, and slightly ahead of the Kunde 2 well.



so the timing is impressive here, as we turn and go horizontal, with kennedy 1H, conocophillips will be at TD and preparing the well for the use in participating in the testing and fracing of Kunde 3. and as that is going on, our well will be drilling 5000 feet horizontally then laying casing,, IMHO by the time the workover rig and crew is set up on the kennedy 1H well, the frac and tesing of Kunde 3 horizontal could be well on the way if not completed.

Our well would then directly benifit as its duplicatin the kunde 3 horizontal in it drilling direction in the chalks, and we can therefor take it for granted the understandings TCEI gains from the kunde 3 well in the fraq can be directly translated and utilized on the Kennedy 1H 5000 foot well.

conocophillips have and extensive team of chalks specialists, and they will no doubt continue to work in live oak and karnes soley with the view to prove up the chalks into a world class field, the testing at kunde 3 is very critical, and been taken deadly seriously. look at it this way,, if they absolutely stuff up the kunde 3 frac and tests, there is a 5000 foot horizontal that we have that can be used to try different techniques on.. but somehow i think they have a pretty good idea at conocophillips on what they want to do and how they want to frac these chalks!

i am certain TCEI has no doubts on the sugarkane in our acreages, its evident by their current strategy to drill a horizontal into the chalks without even having flow tested it at sugarloaf 1, that the data from all the 11 wells so far is more than sufficient for them to drill the sugarkane without any flow testing results from SL1. We are not privy to all the data from all 11 wells like of conocophillips and the TCEI outfit has, they dont take massive risks on a 5000 foot horizontal on a guess, you just dont do that!!

the essential and most critical event now is the frac testing on Kunde 3.. all other operations are a sideshow.

_TCEI JV Block A-I Well_
_Empyrean notes recent media coverage of the announcement made on 27 September__2007 *and whishes to confirm that the operations to be carried out as part of the testing and fracture stimulation of the TCEI JV Block A-I well should not be interpreted as a necessity but rather they are an appropriate use of the best modern day technology available in the industry and will enable the operator to have better information in order to establish best practice for the development and completion of the wells in this project.* Empyrean believes that this is a positive development and an appropriate use of the technology available_


what more can you say!!!!!


IMHO is the Kunde 3 and kennedy 1H tests are completed, the sugarloaf 1 well would have done some fairly extensive flow testing and some attention would be made on that well towards testing the middle zone 2 and / either / or going as a horizontal into the as yet unnamed zone 3 (not hard to guess what they will call it though!!)

in the mean while we will get over the next weeks some flow results on zone 3 and then of course with kennedy1H the usual shows, 60 foot flares and indications of liquids, and although these reports will be seen by some exciting announcements, its still going to slip past the keeper to the majority that regardless of what happens, the conocophillips and TCEI jvp is rock solid here, and has already gone a long way into the developing and proving up a world class multi tcf play..


the current sp is a steal, the potential for the chalks to be fraced successfully by conocophilips is very very high, i dont think they would be considering a horizontal test, and nor would tcei, unless they had some notion of what they needed to do to get these chalks to flow at a world class rate. you cant compare these chalks to the regular austin chalks plays, these chalks are different are unique,, thats why conocophillips are there!!

very exciting days ahead.. 

all imho and dyor


----------



## vpayne

Whilst it is pleasing to note that our agent is monitoring the situation at NT, this does not address my main concern. There are many reasons for shutting in a well, eg. to allow for pressure build up, awaiting special equipment or crews, legal or industrial disputes, demands by regulatory authorities, but none of these are announced as being the case here. So what is the Reason ????  The lower level of this well seems to be a writeoff as the gas is presumed to have escaped up the fault or into a porous zone nearby. The upper level is still not tested as far as I am aware. Also we have a second prospect in our acreage. Has this been downgraded because it is along the same fault and therefore likely to be in the same situation as to the lower level or is it in a different setting? This is what I am concerned about, I can fully understand how the sugarcane area has to be under the most secretive and information control, by why is information not forthcoming at NT?


----------



## Agentm

there is plenty of time for you to ring adi or email them if you need clarity on NT. i have looked at AZZ and index oil and all jvp's and notice they all have declared the well shut in, subject to the operator coming back with a quote to finish off the upper zone.. NT is being monitored by me, but all investors should do their own research.. after all its your money that your investing there..

my focus has been on Sugaloaf and kennedy 1H and the kunde wells along with the primary wells 3 miles away that discovered the play in the late 70's early 80's..


----------



## Agentm

i have posted this up before.. have a re read if your not familiar with whats been said in the ADI presentation.. its not conventional chalks that we have, and our SL1 well is identical to the kunde 1 well..

the key seems to be the matrix porosity, which in our chalks appears to be very different to conventional chalks like giddings and pearsall



Major Upside!"Sugarkane"
Regional Play 

Production, well log analysis and seismic has defined a trap in the Austin Chalk Total trap area ~ 200,000 acres

Major companies hold a significant proportion of the balance of the trap area 


Austin Chalk has produced 5TCF and 700MMBO from vertically fractured chalk in Giddings and Pearsall fields​ 

1930 –1970 vertical wells, mostly no stimulation​ 


1970 –1990 complete field coverage with vertical wells and fracs ​ 

1990’s –horizontal re-development of the vertical drilled areas, high economic success based on better productivity and reserves​ 

Conventional Austin Chalk​ 

Has virtually no matrix porosity (~2%) –requires fracture permeability for productivity​ 

Is normally pressured and has low porosity​ 

In the vertical drilling phases only 20% of wells were successful due to the difficulty of hitting vertical fractures in vertical wells​ 

The economics of third stage conventional Austin Chalk wells are 
better than for the Barnett Shale which is currently the major US producing formation. ​ 
[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Background to Austin Chalk[/FONT]


[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Background to Sugarkane Discovery​ 


The discovery well was drilled by Burlington 4 miles to the west of Sugarloaf and has been producing gas and condensate for the past year​ 


Both wells are central in a 50km x 20km+ trap where early structure on the Fashing Arch, formed by drape over the deeper Hosston structure drilled in the Sugarloaf-1), allowed migration of oil into the structure and preserved porosity​ 

Tight chalk forms the lateral seal all around the Sugarkane trap. ​ 

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Sugarkane gas-condensate discovery in the Austin Chalk has high porosity (6%+) and is overpressured[/FONT]​ 

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Production, well log analysis and seismic has defined areas of interest in the Austin Chalk[/FONT]​ 


[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Sugarloaf-1 logs and shows identical to the Sugarkane discovery well​ 
Reserve Potential -Sugarkane

Additional information from expanded operations will be required in order to make firm estimates of reserves and economics

Potential reserves have been estimated for the 200,000 acre "Sugarkane"field by TCEI.

The field is expected to be developed with horizontal wells

Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (upper zone of 3 –the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) 
is more than 3TCF and approx. 500MMBC

Based on these reserve and production assumptions, Sugarkane has better economics than conventional horizontal developed Austin Chalk and the Barnett Shale.[/FONT][/FONT]


----------



## Lucky_Country

AgentM when will we get the results in your opinion and what will they do too the sp knowing it is not a horizontal well do you think they will be a true reflection of what we got down there ?


----------



## Agentm

the SL1 well will never be a production well as a vertical, its an exploration well. IMHO the SL1 well will go horizontal in no time.

The testing of the 3 zones is part of the evaluation process to understand the best way forward.

What will happen in the next week is the well will be tested and results will be announced, and i feel that will occur in the near term. regardless of a refrac, i think there will be sufficient knowledge gained from the partial frac to understand how to develop the field..

If Sugarloaf 1 makes the discovery out of the zone 3, it will no doubt be named officially, and the need for a refrac will be to get the critical data.

This week will be an exciting week, as quiet as it is on the trade front, the news is about to surface.  late this week  we can also expect news on Kennedy 1H as it starts to get shows in the sugarkane.


if the news is good as we all hope, there is only upside..


but not long to go IMHO..


----------



## fflintoff

golde - 8 Oct'07 - 14:55 - 58897 of 58901


Here is c&p==

SUGARLOAF PROSPECT (20%)
Background
The Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) comprises a lease area of approximately 20,000 acres (80 square kilometres) in west Texas . This area falls entirely within a broad 200,000 acre area known as Sugarkane which is thought to be prospective for the well known and prolific Austin Chalk play. 

The Sugarkane area is defined by regional analysis of drilling results, hydrocarbon shows and wireline log interpretation from adjacent wells. The Sugarkane discovery well located 6.6km west of Sugarloaf-1 has been producing gas and condensate steadily from a vertical well since 2006 and a nearby horizontal is due to be tested following strong hydrocarbon indications while drilling. Potential reserves have been estimated for the Sugarkane area at greater than 3 TCF of gas and approximately 500 million barrels of condensate. 

The Austin Chalk play is well known in Texas and is exploited from a broad regional trend which passes just to the north of the Sugarkane area. The play shot to prominence in the early 1990's when horizontal drilling technology was first applied routinely. The reason for this was that horizontal wells of some 5,000 feet in length were able to access a much longer section of reservoir and in particular were able to intersect and drain hydrocarbons from complex fracture systems. 

The Sugarkane area is still in the earliest stages of appraisal. However, it appears to be over-pressured, have relatively high matrix porosity, contain >150bbls of condensate per MMCF of gas, and be vertically fractured – all of which are strongly positive signs for potential commerciality. The reason why the play had been overlooked to date is due to the overall paucity of wells on this trend, the fact that Sugarkane is some 20km south of the main Austin Chalk trend, and the traditional thinking that the Chalk is a relatively low productivity reservoir when compared to other reservoirs targeted by previous wells drilled in this area. 

Sugarloaf-1 Well
Adelphi originally farmed into the Sugarloaf area on the basis of a large, deep, 4-way dip closed growth fault play in early Cretaceous Hosston Formation clastics. Upon recognition of the Austin Chalk play as an attractive secondary target, we increased our equity in this well from 12.5% to 20% prior to the commencement of drilling Sugarloaf-1. 

The Sugarloaf-1 well commenced drilling during August 2006 and reached a total depth of 20,896 feet (6,371 metres) in December 2006 after 116 days. 

During drilling and subsequently confirmed by wire-line log analysis, the well encountered indications of hydrocarbons in both the primary and secondary targets. In the primary Hosston Formation, gas indications over both an upper and lower interval of interbedded clastics, and in the Austin Chalk with a 28 metre zone of possible gas pay. 

During March 2007, a testing program including fracture stimulation of part of the Hosston Formation intervals was undertaken but formation water and only minor quantities of gas were recovered at rates too small to measure. As a result, the well was plugged off to allow later testing of the Austin Chalk zone. 

The Sugarloaf-1 test of the Austin Chalk interval commenced during September 2007 with the fracture stimulation and testing of the bottom-most zone. If a potentially commercial flow of gas and/or gas liquids can be obtained, the well will be production tested so as to obtain productivity information. The scope and timing of testing the remaining two zones will depend on the results of the first. 

Kennedy-1 Horizontal Well
The drilling of a horizontal well located approximately 1,600m from Sugaloaf-1 commenced on 17 th September 2007. The well, named Kennedy-1 Horizontal (effectively a Sugarloaf-2 well) is planned to be drilled in a north-westerly direction with a horizontal section of some 5,000 feet (1,500 metres). It will be geo-steered so as to fully test the uppermost zone in the Chalk – the same zone that is productive in the Sugarkane discovery some 8km to the west. 

Based on limited horizontal drilling results reported to date in a neighbouring lease within the Sugarkane area, it would appear that vertical fractures have been encountered there which would significantly improve the flow potential and well economics of this play. However, this still needs to be confirmed by production testing and further appraisal drilling to determine the existence of these fractures across the wider Sugarkane area including the Sugarloaf AMI. This is also one of the key objectives of the Kennedy-1 well. 

It is worthwhile noting that vertical fracturing is a crucial factor in the success of Austin Chalk wells in the established fields to the north due to their relatively lower matrix porosity in the Chalk when compared to the Sugarkane area. 

If the Sugarkane area proves to be successful, that is if the horizontal wells deliver an economic return, prospective reserves are estimated to be in the range of 600 BCF to 1 TCF for the Sugarloaf AMI alone in which Adelphi owns a 20% working interest


----------



## Agentm

_*It is worthwhile noting that vertical fracturing is a crucial factor in the success of Austin Chalk wells in the established fields to the north due to their relatively lower matrix porosity in the Chalk when compared to the Sugarkane area. 
*_

that is the key to it all, the sugarkane has relatively high matrix porosity

you cannot compare the regular chalk plays in the austin chalks to this little gem.. its unique..


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> _*It is worthwhile noting that vertical fracturing is a crucial factor in the success of Austin Chalk wells in the established fields to the north due to their relatively lower matrix porosity in the Chalk when compared to the Sugarkane area.
> *_
> 
> that is the key to it all, the sugarkane has relatively high matrix porosity
> 
> you cannot compare the regular chalk plays in the austin chalks to this little gem.. its unique..




jj,
Exactly as stated by the blessed Charles all those West Texan full moons ago:-

“The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity”


----------



## Agentm

just one uk investor and myself left here now..  looks like the delays have blown most out of the door.

i'll keep holding..

motoben in the uk is very very interesting, i like the data that comes through, if you can filter the consortiums that operate on shares like eme and mpl over there and dont engage them, nor their other false identities that keep saying things like good post mate!! but if you filter enough you can get good info, most of the excellent posters like ed over there have given up as the determination of these consortiums and shorters and mm's are very frustrating. people like moto, saf, jjf, tarz, sussex mpl jacko to name a few are all keenly interested in the share and contribute great info.. you have to watch the thought police, when ever you get a poster who is trying "to protect the flock" you see right through them, they are on an agenda. any investor can see an obvious ramp, and anyone can tell positive sentiment from negative, its the ones that need to highlight the negatives day in day out, you see them here to, some of these crews work long hours with many operators with multiple identities, a few days ago one consortium member there posted 36 times on a stock claiming not to hold any shares but solely to protect the flock!!, any way enough on the pitfalls of shorting crews and gambling on the AIM.. thank christ we are not listed there!!




this is a little gem that moto put out, i liked it a lot and was a project i was planning on undertaking myself, worth looking at imho


----------



## Evangeline

Still hanging in and waiting for the results of S1 and Kennedy.  It is logical, as you say, that no news is probably good news.  They have commenced testing and obviously there must be something worth testing.  Otherwise they would have to announce a duster.  Hopefully some good news this week!


----------



## dont jump

Another UK investor here lurking for some time in the back ground, dont want you to feel too lonely.

Top research AgentM and the rest of you guys.

Your last post is spot on, many of the boards in the uk are being spoiled by these clowns. I have noticed it appears to be getting worse over the last few months on AIM oilers. Maybe its  down to the fact an RNS no longer gives 20% or more rise in a day. What little I have seen of the ASX is a good example of how AIM should be run but the FSA is impotent to act.

I hope we get a bit of news from ADI tonight or tomorrow. 

Luck to all.


----------



## Agentm

hey eva  and dontjump..

interesting to hear the views on the AIM are shared by others too, its very obvious to me whom are the consortium members, my filter list is full of them.. i have another stock i want to heavily invest in but its also listed on the AIM, which makes it tough to decide on accumulating. i am less inclined to as a result of it being there.



TCEI results are only a matter of time now i think, and probably not much of that left!! shares seem well held and the top 20 keep on buying!!


----------



## Evangeline

Agentm - Do you know anything about Thomas Brian Cannon - he just keeps on accummulating every time I look.  He is now up to 800k and it must have been him who bought up big that day.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Agentm - Do you know anything about Thomas Brian Cannon - he just keeps on accummulating every time I look. He is now up to 800k and it must have been him who bought up big that day.





i see many top 20 are buying up, and many like nioka jump across or hold large holdings in many camps.. 

cant comment on individuals, or who i have been in contact with, but seeing that adi is regularily updating the top 20 every week or so, shows you by these revisions that the last months has seen consistant accumulating on the adi share by the top 20.  if the others jvp's did reveal their lists and not guard them so closely it would be interesting to see who's on it what sort of weekly changes are happening there..


----------



## dont jump

I must admit I am a small fry invester but hold a great miner share on AIM which appears free from manipulation other than the market makers. However there are a few dogs on AIM which I have invested in. 

Carpie deum


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well more delays this is getting frustrating too say the least delay after delay after delay.
No flow but refracing seems like they really think they can get a good flow otherwise they would not bother just so frustrating all this waiting


----------



## nioka

Looks like I will have to repeat myself. GROUNDHOG DAY. This one is getting to be a relative of VPE where good news is always just around the corner.


----------



## Agentm

back to square 1

zone 3 is the lowest zone to be tested, they had a screenout, now will refrac as TCEI has made a recommendation. unfortunately there is nothing in the announcement given that can indicate whether its looking positive or not, its just got to be done right and tested thoroughly. perhaps the fact they are refracing is an indication that things may be positive, but thats unknown.

its a great time to stack the sell side and shake out the share a little..

Kennedy 1H and Kunde 3 are the real deal, its whats the share is about, the suagrkane!

The well is a about where i think it should be, 11,803feet and in about 500 - 800 feet or so the well will be in the sugarkane. not long to go.


13 trades after the announcement.. not exactly a mass exodus!! $38,419..

nothings changed IMHO.. i am in it for the sugarkane.. these other zones have never been factored into the sp..


----------



## stereo21

Could this be just another delay awaiting the results from Kunde 1, 2 or 3(think it is 2 but I could be mistaken)???

I know this may be just a conspiracy theory but thought I would throw it out there...


----------



## Broadside

why didn't they just refrac in the first place...another 2 weeks lost, very frustrating for holders all these delays.


----------



## Agentm

stereo21 said:


> Could this be just another delay awaiting the results from Kunde 1, 2 or 3(think it is 2 but I could be mistaken)???
> 
> I know this may be just a conspiracy theory but thought I would throw it out there...





if you ask me, i dont believe so, the screen out really didnt give them enough of a frac to get any idea of the flow. The refrac is on zone 3, which is not the sugarkane. there is one more zone above it then the suagrkane is in zone 1.

the plan is just as it always was, test all three zones but put any zone that flows on long term flow.. so refrac and test again.


kunde 2 is about 4 or so days behind kennedy 1H, so i think they will be looking at maybe late next week for a frac on kunde 3.. but thats speculation.. 

the frustration is being felt by all, but the reality is that nothing has changed. in a week we will be thinking about the rfrac and waiting on the expectation of news on the shows in kennedy 1h.. today is all about great buying opportunities


----------



## Lucky_Country

Yeh sp been hit but good oppurtunity too top up.
These delays are frustrating with confidence in ever getting a result wearing a bit thin.
Refrac and kennedy 1 should all be complete within 4 - 6 weeks could be a bumper ride before xmas and have been waiting well over 1 year so another 6 weeks wont hurt
Please deliver ADI


----------



## cathald1

I hurtin but im also holdin lets just get on with the refrac  they will have to withdraw the well tubing out to frac.

Does any one know if the frac team left site ?? 
I assume they have as it would be too expensive to keep them there for the last 2 weeks.

On the positive side  if Z3 was a duster they are going to alot of bother with it ier frac, clean up, tube,flow test, refrac etc

Agent M 
I agree with you on the aim it is full of shisters and heist merchants there is no midway. 
Just because we dont post doesn't mean we arn't here and looking for info you post. 

because of shorting it is so hard to predict the bottom of a stock on the aim


----------



## Agentm

cathald1 said:


> I hurtin but im also holdin lets just get on with the refrac they will have to withdraw the well tubing out to frac.
> 
> Does any one know if the frac team left site ??
> I assume they have as it would be too expensive to keep them there for the last 2 weeks.
> 
> On the positive side if Z3 was a duster they are going to alot of bother with it ier frac, clean up, tube,flow test, refrac etc
> 
> Agent M
> I agree with you on the aim it is full of shisters and heist merchants there is no midway.
> Just because we dont post doesn't mean we arn't here and looking for info you post.
> 
> because of shorting it is so hard to predict the bottom of a stock on the aim




if zone 3 flows they wont test sugarkane (zone 1) as they would have completed the Kennedy 1H well. so effectively they have saved money on that frac, and its possible after the zone 3 frac (and lets say they flow and put it on long term test), they then can go up the hole and test zone 2.
even though we have had a screenout, i see think it would have cost the same if they had frac tested all three zones early this year. its just that we have no data from one frac as it was a screenout, but 3 would have been required.

I have asked if our jvp would do similar tomography which the kunde 2 well is about to undertake during the frac test, and i was told its not likely as the well is cased and we are a little too far off the kennedy 1H well.

It all looks good to me, kennedy 1H will be 2 days into the turn now. by sat it will be finished, then case in and cement, two days there, so early next week the well will be drilling away into the chalks.

There is plenty of commentary now appearing on the boards in the UK that the sp will tank as a result of the screenout and refrac, IMHO the fact they are refracing means there is nothing so far that has been seen by TCEI to discount the zone 3 chalks as not being potentially productive.

as i said, the frac of the sugarkane may not be needed with kennedy 1H drilling the structure, so i see the well costs as being what they would have anticipated initially.

Great buying yesterday, obviously by the lack of buying in the past days the refrac had been anticipated, and there was plenty waiting to snap anything up on the trades yesterday. be interested to see if the trend continues..

good luck to those buying, i like their style.


----------



## chance fate

I think what we have to remember with zones three and two is that they represent upside potential over and above zone one; zone one correlates with sugarkane and so the decision has been made to proceed with kennedy 1h targeting that zone.  Three and two have to be tested in this well to get information on whether the subsequent field development needs to include targeting these zones.  So a complete data set is needed and hence the proposal to refrac it (cost for the information is justifiable given the potential upside) rather than the alternative which is to write off zone three immediately never to return....imo


----------



## Agentm

I agree, the two lower zones could have big upside, and if they have higher liquid content, as couchy has perhaps suggested, then we are in for some exciting days!!

But today we have no results to display, so its back to groundhog day and back to being in the "No flow sp flux"

Support is around as usual, if your wanting to bail theres plenty out there willing to take them from you..

Early next week is the next news on K1H.


----------



## fflintoff

agentm,
Is the new Burlington permit to drill a horizontal in Live Oak to 14000ft ( Edwards ? ) of any relevance to us?

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...e=BAKER+FAMILY+TRUST+A401&univDocNo=484814044


----------



## greenfs

I find I intriguing that the BHP thread is only 60 pages and that ADI has grown to a staggering 125 pages. 

I think that Agent M is trying to write a book on this one. Mebbe it will end up being bigger than "War & Peace'?


----------



## nioka

greenfs;211179. Mebbe it will end up being bigger than "War & Peace'?[/QUOTE said:
			
		

> The ADI story is already bigger than the 'War and Peace" story and it still has a long way to go. You would be better comparing it to the film "Groundhog Day". We wouldn't know much about ADI without Agentm so don't knock it.


----------



## chance fate

he he.....excuse my ignorance but does War and Peace have a happy ending?  or is it more a shakespeare tradegy?  hope it's not romeo and juliette...  the plot could go...  get totally pi$$ed with the share and bail only to find the next announcement details the results of the prolific several Tcf field...  or hang in there til the bitter end only to find the field is totally impermeable and even tho' there's a Tcf of gas it can't be produced...  a tradegy and a thriller!  Hope it's more like Pirates of the Carribean/Tomb Raider....  Please AgentM..  can you script it that way??!!


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff..

i will have a look at all their permit, does appear edwards only?.. 
smaller holder have the option of bailing, the larger are locked it..
still in all my research seen nothing to suggest that the TCEI kennedy 1H well nor the Kunde 3 wells are incapable of reaching their objectives. 

looking forward to the results of both wells

cheers


----------



## Father Ted

The new Baker#1 well is 3miles south east of Kunde and 5miles south west of kennedy

I assume that the total depth includes the horizontal, so 14000 ft will be the total drill length (I think) that makes bottom possibly nearer 9000 - 10000 ft.

 - but I will leave that for others to establish for certain!!

It does not appear to be any of the stars on the aurora oil & gas map from their presentation of 5th Sept - so not certain if its 'one of ours'

still it's interesting

Father Ted


----------



## Agentm

hey father..

i looked at all the permits, its 3 mlies SW of our SL1 well and as you say its a touch shorter than the other wells..

i like the news, its now looking like the outcome of Kunde 3 is such that new step out wells are on the agenda.

the well will not form part of our jvp, but its going to have an impact on the reserves calculations as the TCEI/ conocophillips jvp continue their step out program.

its getting more and more evident week by week that TCEI/conocophillips is no longer just testing the sugarkane, but the SL1 step out, and subsequent kennedy horizontal plus the kennedy horizontal and the new baker 1 well is showing me the suagrkane is being expanded into in a big way. 

the kunde 2 well is now looking at the lower zones, as is the SL1 well. Once they are assessed we may be in for some further action on the lower zones.. its critical to understand the zone 3 chalks are not the sugarkane!!

all good IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Agentm

monday or tuesday latest is my pick for the horizontal into suagrkane.

the barker permit looks like a vertical with a penetration point.  perhaps a future multi lateral well? if zone 3 is flowing well and then zone maybe theres some truth in the couch oils 500 barrels of oil per day from kunde 1? maybe couch added up all the zones they tested and maybe there is 200 barrels of oil pd in zone 2 and 3?

refrac is yet to be announced, by next monday a week has gone by, so i think by the end of next week the refrac will be on the way.

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## mjam

Long time holder , first time poster.

Agentm - your posts on this stock have been been informative and full of insight - thanks for your research and your willingness to share this info - much appreciated.

For me its now a simple equation - across the acreage ADI has rights to - there either is or is not commercial O&G in the ground. Time will tell!!!!

I hope there is and S$%t loads of it for all ADI holders , however also accept that this type of exploration is very high risk from a shareholder perspective.  

Looking back over the last 12 months - the main disappointment has been the fact that there has been no major good news story , however in this high risk investment - you should expect that.

Overall if you look at the players involved - you would hope and expect that they are not pi##ing good money after bad.

So whilst this post does not provide any further fact or insight - best of luck to all holders of the ADI stock.

DYOR


----------



## Agentm

mjam said:


> Long time holder , first time poster.
> 
> Agentm - your posts on this stock have been been informative and full of insight - thanks for your research and your willingness to share this info - much appreciated.
> 
> For me its now a simple equation - across the acreage ADI has rights to - there either is or is not commercial O&G in the ground. Time will tell!!!!
> 
> I hope there is and S$%t loads of it for all ADI holders , however also accept that this type of exploration is very high risk from a shareholder perspective.
> 
> Looking back over the last 12 months - the main disappointment has been the fact that there has been no major good news story , however in this high risk investment - you should expect that.
> 
> Overall if you look at the players involved - you would hope and expect that they are not pi##ing good money after bad.
> 
> So whilst this post does not provide any further fact or insight - best of luck to all holders of the ADI stock.
> 
> DYOR





Hey MJAM.

i agree on all counts, and i absolutely believe the kunde 1, kunde 2 vertical, kunde 3 horizontal, pogue vertical, and pogue directional, and the Sl1 vertical has given the TCEI conocophillips jvp the confidence to step out with horizontals and drill both Kennedy 1H and now Baker 1

we are apparently we are potentially staring 600bcfe  to 1tcfe in the face.

not seeing any change of heart in the conocophillips camp, and TCEI is not really doing much anywhere else in the country, its primarily 100% on this huge exercice.

happily keeping my money along side mr fluors... i think that guy knows more than any of us.


cheers


----------



## fflintoff

Father Ted said:


> The new Baker#1 well is 3miles south east of Kunde and 5miles south west of kennedy
> 
> I assume that the total depth includes the horizontal, so 14000 ft will be the total drill length (I think) that makes bottom possibly nearer 9000 - 10000 ft.
> 
> - but I will leave that for others to establish for certain!!
> 
> It does not appear to be any of the stars on the aurora oil & gas map from their presentation of 5th Sept - so not certain if its 'one of ours'
> 
> still it's interesting
> 
> Father Ted




Completion depth & total depth are the same at 14000ft so they are targeting the Edwards i.e. 14000ft is not the total drill length.


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm,
Posted on advfn earlier.

You may wish to respond to this plank.

*******************************************************

onetomany - 13 Oct'07 - 12:38 - 59607 of 59611


been away a few days - out of interest how did that twat agentm respond to the news last week. last posts i read from him the day before were how wonderful the next few days would be. 
onetomany - 13 Oct'07 - 14:50 - 59611 of 59611


gosscar,

you are drunk matey. agentm is quite obviously just a spoof. ramping constantly and decrying anyone who questions his pish. re consortium, well im a holder with a fair investment here and wish success (obviously). agentm talks pish however, as has been demonstrated many many times. since he really started to gain adoration from pillocks like you the share price has virtually halved! yet for some reason you and a few othrs continue to praise his work and advice. for the love of ****, wake up and smell the coffee, all of you.

im off to watch the footy, once ive taken the pins out of my ears - lol


----------



## Evangeline

The Edwards?  I thought they were targetting the Sugarkane in the Austin Chalks. 

Couch said that the Edwards from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.

I was under the impression that this was to be a production well, not a test???


----------



## Evangeline

Sorry - was under the mistaken impression you were referring to Kennedy.  It is the Baker well you are referring to (whew)


----------



## Father Ted

fflintoff said:


> Completion depth & total depth are the same at 14000ft so they are targeting the Edwards i.e. 14000ft is not the total drill length.




I am happy to stand corrected.

However, this is a wildcat you don't normally do horizontal wildcats, (do you?), so I suspect that it's a step out development well. I can't see the Edwards as the main agenda.

- but time will tell!

father ted


----------



## Agentm

Father Ted said:


> I am happy to stand corrected.
> 
> However, this is a wildcat you don't normally do horizontal wildcats, (do you?), so I suspect that it's a step out development well. I can't see the Edwards as the main agenda.
> 
> - but time will tell!
> 
> father ted




tend to agree father..

will wait and see, but with horizontals the permits often read for the TD not the actual depth, there are 17000 feet horizontals that are drilling the edwards at the moment in bee county and live oak, i tend to think baker 1 well is following the trend that conocophillips has been targeting, and my money is on the sugarkane, so i am with you.. the edwards has not been tested there so i agree a horizontal into it without testing the zone is not the usual process.. 

fflintoff,, all the above are on filter. i have no interst in commenting. posts like that which have little to do with the jvp and the CP/TCEI program are of little interest here.. re TD, its a horizontal, so i cant see the edwards being in their plans there.


----------



## fflintoff

14000ft does not include the horizontal i.e. true measured depth. A good example is the Kennedy Horizontal Well at a depth of 12200ft on the permit & which obviously excludes the lateral section.


----------



## Father Ted

fflintoff said:


> 14000ft does not include the horizontal i.e. true measured depth. A good example is the Kennedy Horizontal Well at a depth of 12200ft on the permit & which obviously excludes the lateral section.




Are you suggesting that they will go blind into the Edwards? I don't think the permit commits them to have to drill to that depth (or to complete the horizontal for that matter).

father ted


----------



## fflintoff

Father Ted said:


> Are you suggesting that they will go blind into the Edwards? I don't think the permit commits them to have to drill to that depth (or to complete the horizontal for that matter).
> 
> father ted



Of course not. We don ´t know. We don ´t even know if any of the partners has an interest in this well. I was merely pointing out the inaccuracy of the previous statements that 14000ft included the lateral section which is obviously not correct. However such a mistake is understandable & is frequently made.


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff

i cant agree with you at all, please look closely at a permit no# 42 025 3336, an example of how a horizontal well can look deeper than actual depth.

its listed as 17000 feet TD, but your confusing the TD with actual depth. once you get your head around the way permits change in the RRC system it becomes clearer. in most initial permits the actual depth isnt always evident, not all permits carrty the detail some of the CP/TCEI ones did ealier. but later as further information comes to hand they often change depths in the RRC databases.. sometimes they amend depths sometimes they dont, but you should consider the notion of mistaking the measurement of TD with actual depth in permits, or you can end up thousands of feet out in horizontals and directionals.. if its a vertical often you can accept TD will be close to actual depth.. but different story in horizontals, the RRC want the calulations of TD in the wells with lat and long coordinates and turn points etc, this then ensures the well in within a lease. So in horizontals, as it turns out, TD is MD

on the  permit 42 025 3336  you will notice it says 17000 feet, but the deepest the horizontal ever went was actual depth 13,780.  They perforated from 13,618 to 16,540. it produces from the edwards at the 13780 region and is not at 17000 feet actual depth. that well is an edwards well, its horizontal.

if your expecting the baker 1 well to get a 4000 foot horizontal in when the edwards is 13500+ in our area, your in for a pleasant suprise..

i'll stick with the notion the well is as father ted is saying..  hope this helps..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well AUT seem too have been sliding the cost of acquiring and exploring the extra leases are obviously weighing in their SP and diluting shareholder value with no gaurantees on what they may find.
ADI played it sensibly keeping shareholder value not getting greedy and will come out ontop and create more intrest from AUT shareholders in there stock.
Very impressed by ADI management cool calm and collected bit frustrated  but should be worth the wait more news would have been nice but they are doing a great job.


----------



## greenfs

Someone thinks the share price bottom is $0.60 as there has been good sales volumes in recent days without the price moving up or down significantly.

The attached graph suggests that the next move will probably be up to a target price of $0.75. For those very patient holders of which I am not one, I hope it goes much higher.

By closely watching the DMI & MACD movements over the next week, a prospective investor should get a pretty good idea if I am going to be proven correct with this guestimate.


----------



## nioka

greenfs said:


> Someone thinks the share price bottom is $0.60 as there has been good sales volumes in recent days without the price moving up or down significantly.
> 
> The attached graph suggests that the next move will probably be up to a target price of $0.75. For those very patient holders of which I am not one, I hope it goes much higher.
> 
> By closely watching the DMI & MACD movements over the next week, a prospective investor should get a pretty good idea if I am going to be proven correct with this guestimate.
> 
> View attachment 14173




Charts don't mean a **^^* thing where ADI is concerned. The dealers are long gone on this one and it is the true believers still holding. The sellers are those losing patience or needing the cash. The price increases a little when news is due and slips a little when it doesn't appear on time. What will make a difference is news of a duster or news of a great flow of oil and/or gas.


----------



## tarzanhey

Good morning all - Just a quickie to let you know that there is a new thread on ADVFN.

I have had enough!!!!

The EME NO VERMIN moderated thread.

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/pbb/edit_article.php3?id=15569580

I have set up this thread in order to try to bring some sanity back to the UK EME Threads. And may be of some interest to you guys in the JVP.

Please post your views there - we have some really good folks that post interesting research and I will ban any of the Bad guys who have been ruining the other thread - I cannot ban premium users but I can moderate their posts - and you can bet I will if they are in need of it.

All welcome.

Agentm - I hope to see you soon on there!

Tarzan


----------



## tarzanhey

tarzanhey said:


> Good morning all - Just a quickie to let you know that there is a new thread on ADVFN.
> 
> I have had enough!!!!
> 
> The EME NO VERMIN moderated thread.
> 
> http://www.advfn.com/cmn/pbb/edit_article.php3?id=15569580
> 
> I have set up this thread in order to try to bring some sanity back to the UK EME Threads. And may be of some interest to you guys in the JVP.
> 
> Please post your views there - we have some really good folks that post interesting research and I will ban any of the Bad guys who have been ruining the other thread - I cannot ban premium users but I can moderate their posts - and you can bet I will if they are in need of it.
> 
> All welcome.
> 
> Agentm - I hope to see you soon on there!
> 
> Tarzan





Please try this link instead it is the free bb one

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=15569579

cheers


----------



## sam76

tarzanhey said:


> Please try this link instead it is the free bb one
> 
> http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=15569579
> 
> cheers




Nope, that one doesn't work either?

If I write this then it should take my characters up to the magic one hundred.


----------



## Agentm

kennedy 1H is in the sugarkane now. Looking forward to the reports on its 5000 foot journey and using the oil based mud they should be able to control the well far easier.

will be extremely interested in any announcements in the next few days, and particularily any outcomes from operations that are announced next week.

conocophillips are not relenting in their exploration of the sugarkane, and they appear in my view to now be also interested in the Zone 3 region in an wildcat phase. I think the zone 3 test is of great interest to conocophillips and TCEI, and it will also equally contribute to our JVP's future as well.    

still very optimistic on all that i see, in our acreages and in the CP/TCEI camp.


----------



## kevro

sam76 said:


> Nope, that one doesn't work either?
> 
> If I write this then it should take my characters up to the magic one hundred.





Sam,

are you registered at ADVFN?

I just accessed the thread by using the appropriate passwords.

Kevro


----------



## sam76

kevro said:


> Sam,
> 
> are you registered at ADVFN?
> 
> I just accessed the thread by using the appropriate passwords.
> 
> Kevro





Nah mate, I just assumed as it was the free bb that I wouldn't have to register first.

No harm done.

Cheers,


----------



## Agentm

my pick is a mid week update, kennedy 1H in the chalks with shows. and refrac of SL1 zone 3 to go ahead immediately.

the shows are wishful thinking but totally expected.

the uk crowd are completely unaware of the timings in the kunde wells, they have no way of knowing, and i think will be caught unawares

i wonder how its going on baker street?

great days ahead

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Evangeline

It was last Wednesday we had our last update, so fingers crossed for today.  I can't wait for news and hope it is all good of course.  Thanks M, for your consistent contributions during this tense time.


----------



## Agentm

Hey eva,

lets say that any adi holder should be shock proof by now. I dont have any issues or problems with what i see in the research i have done. The conocophillips boys are now drilling baker 1, and i like the way they are continuing the progaram. baker will make it 3 horizontals in the sugarkane, and what is brilliant about the project is that these shares are under the radar, with exceptional value in them.

I can see that there are plenty of very very clever investors whom are accumulating on any nervous exits, not only on ADI but on all the jvp's. and good on them for having the forsight and understandings to take advantage of the screenout!!  if you add the shares traded and look at the top 20 of adi you may learn see which direction these sells are going..

Kennedy 1h news will be interesting i hope, and i recall couch oil telling us some interesting things about how charged the chalks were in sept last year..

Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
*Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations* 

you must understand how deep this well is and how much pressure is needed to do this..  

as i say, this share has completely been missed, and there are those that have been clever and accumulated in this very quiet period, as the wealth is transfered from the impatient to the patient.

i hope those nervous ones have made a good gain.. as i think the patient ones are on the winner here.

its all about the liquids and the matrix.. and these are not your ordinary chalks by any means..


good luck

all IMHO and DYOR


----------



## Evangeline

Good luck to you too M.  You certainly deserve it after your long wait and endless research!  As for me, I couldn't resist loading up on a few EKEO as well during the last week - they have been so cheap at 19c and 18c.  I now have a nice parcel - just hoping we get news before they expire lol!

Unfortunately I am all out of pocket money now, and am not inclined to go down the credit card line - I draw the line at going into debt to buy shares.


----------



## Agentm

well the midweek didnt go ahead. which would have been a nice event. and its quiet as all heck out there..  

back to groundhog days again!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Very suprised that there is no weekly update considering that Kennedy 1 is drilling ahead after all when SL 1 was drilling they did inform us weekly where it had reached in depth.
Does this also mean that fraccing at SL 1 has not commenced ?


----------



## Agentm

i am sure the jvp will announce any frac prior to it commencing.

kennedy 1H can be anywhere really.. according to my calculations they are in the chalks, but you have to allow for delays and equipment failure.. its always part of the process, and we have overpressurised chalks, so things may be needed to be done to endure the pumps and equipment can deal with the very tricky part of the drilling,,

i was anticipating a usual midweek senario, looks like its back to closed well and no news and groundhog day..


----------



## fflintoff

Amendment to the Kunde # 2 permit directional removing the following caveat:-

“This well cannot be produced concurrently from the same reservoir as: Kunde Gas Unit #1 Well 3”

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...name=KUNDE+NO.+1+GAS+UNIT&univDocNo=484826728


----------



## Agentm

just to keep you in the picture,

i think conocophillips have not been sitting there doing nothing, they have baker 1 near by now, and the TCEI kennedy 1H is drilling the chalks right now.

i put in the two wells that drilled the chalks in the 70's pre the horizontal technology eras of the 80's onwards.

as you may tell, there is a lot of data TCEi and conocophillips have on hand today regarding this play, and i dont see any slowing down of processes like we had since sept 06 whilst the leases were purchased. i see a step up in activity. precision timed.


----------



## Agentm

Kennedy #1H Well

Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 17 October the Kennedy-1 exploration well had reached a measured depth of 12,720 feet (3,878 metres) and was cementing casing. Since our last report, the well has been steered from vertical to reach a horizontal attitude just inside the target Austin Chalk upper zone, believed to correlate with the producing zone in the Sugarkane discovery well. Background gas increased from around 40 units to about 100 units on entering the Austin Chalk target zone. The commercial significance of the elevated gas background is not known but is regarded as encouraging.
As planned, casing is now being run before the planned final 4,850 feet (1,273 metres) of the well is drilled entirely within the near horizontal target Austin Chalk upper zone, in order to evaluate the zone and its productive potential if any. 

Sugarloaf-1 Well

The Operator has advised that preparations have commenced to re-frac and re-test the deepest of the three zones of gas shows and log interpreted potential gas pay in the Cretaceous age Austin Chalk Formation. As a result of the reported early screen out when attempting to frac this zone last month, a revised frac design and program will now be adopted.
Timing of the proposed fracture stimulation operation is subject to the availability of frac equipment and services but is expected to take place within a few days. 

Adelphi, through its wholly owned US subsidiary Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc., has a 20% interest in the Sugarloaf Project which includes the Sugarloaf-1 and Kennedy #1H wells.


----------



## Metron

Ok, Something a little weird just happened...  Just after this mornings announcement someone dumped a few thousand at 58c, thats fine, but then in the last half an hour 2,000,000 (Million) share go through at around 61c.

I for one would LOVE to know where they came from and more importantly where they went to!

Any Ideas? Or do I have the Jitters... Again..?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Very very interesting 2 million shares traded with no change of holding announcement I take that as a very positive sign as the sp went up


----------



## barney

(EDITED Hi IJH Posted this b4 I saw yours ........... )

Very Interesting movement of shares going on in the last half hour.  A big shareholder has transferred over 2 million shares from somewhere to somewhere else ????

The question is why??  If I owned a few million shares (I wish)  ......... the main reason I'd want to move them to other accounts would be for accounting reasons ......... ie to save money ,  

So working on that theory, they either know one of two things .....  

1) The shares are about to rise substantially, so they are syphoning the shares elsewhere to save tax, or share the wealth with family or whoever, OR,  
b) The shares are not going to go well, so they are moving them where a capital loss would be more beneficial ...

My guess ..... If you were wealthy enough to buy shares in the "millions" to start with, the chances are you would have already have them positioned for optimal tax purposes .......... therefore I see it as "sharing" the wealth with possibly a subsiduary company or family member ???

Lets hope it is the latter  ................. any thoughts anyone, cause I'm just thinking out aloud here and could be way off the mark.  Cheers.


PS There we go again ...... another half million at 60 cents ........... interesting


----------



## Lucky_Country

Would transfering shares from 1 account too another show as a sale and why would they do it in instalment ie 500,000 +300,000 etc.
Im no tax expert asking for advice anybody ?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Another 500.000 gone through has someone been accumulating over the past year and now showing there hand I hope its Mr Forkce that really will give me confidence


----------



## barney

Lucky_Country said:


> Would transfering shares from 1 account too another show as a sale and why would they do it in instalment ie 500,000 +300,000 etc.
> Im no tax expert asking for advice anybody ?




Hi IJH,   They could be transferring to several different accounts  ie half million for each family member/ or company etc  ................ I guess if they transfer now b4 the price goes through the roof, it will lessen the capital gains tax at a later date ............... Thats my guess, but I could be totally wrong ............ time will be the judge, but I bought a few more today. Cheers.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Could it be the reverse someone has been acummulating in different accounts too hide there holding and now have put all there holding into 1 account too guarantte a seat on the board maybe ?


----------



## wipz

Metron said:


> Ok, Something a little weird just happened...  Just after this mornings announcement someone dumped a few thousand at 58c, thats fine, but then in the last half an hour 2,000,000 (Million) share go through at around 61c.
> 
> I for one would LOVE to know where they came from and more importantly where they went to!
> 
> Any Ideas? Or do I have the Jitters... Again..?




Wow, yes i have just seen these now, FYI:

Adelphi Energy Limited (ADI) 
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions 
18-10-2007 12:15 PM $0.600 500000 $300,000.000 Crossed 
18-10-2007 11:55 AM $0.610 3750 $2,287.500 Crossed 
18-10-2007 11:52 AM $0.600 500000 $300,000.000 Crossed 
18-10-2007 11:51 AM $0.600 500000 $300,000.000 Crossed 
18-10-2007 11:50 AM $0.600 100000 $60,000.000 Crossed 
18-10-2007 11:42 AM $0.600 200000 $120,000.000   
18-10-2007 11:42 AM $0.600 300000 $180,000.000   
18-10-2007 11:39 AM $0.600 500000 $300,000.000 Crossed 

CRAZY... Looking good for ADI??!?!


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:


> Would transfering shares from 1 account too another show as a sale and why would they do it in instalment ie 500,000 +300,000 etc.
> Im no tax expert asking for advice anybody ?




Here is one possibility. Someone is expecting the price to rise. They also want to take some of the profit. The shares are held in their super fund which they can't draw from. The answer then would be to transfer the shares leaving cash in the fund. Sell the shares after the increase and the profit does not belong to the fund. Of course the profit is taxable but maybe they also owned RHG which they sell at a loss to offset the ADI profit. 
 Ah! The mind boggles at the possible senarios.


----------



## chance fate

...despite a seemingly positive announcement...  100 units of elevated background gas at the target level...  f.a. happening to the s.p....  would have thought that would be starting to attract some speculative interest...  but seemingly still stuck in holding pattern.....hopefully we'll see some 60ft flares to put some fire under the sp in the announcement next week!!!


----------



## wipz

Lucky_Country said:


> Would transfering shares from 1 account too another show as a sale and why would they do it in instalment ie 500,000 +300,000 etc.
> Im no tax expert asking for advice anybody ?




Yes a capital gain/loss will arise on transfer, however we are talking about future expectations. 

To realise a small gain now, when you are expecting a large gain later may be a wise idea if your transfering the shares into an entity with carried forward losses.  If you expecting a large gain in a entity with carried forward losses you can ofset the gains with the losses and pay no tax.  He may be doing this?

The other side of the story is that he is transfering the shares into a profitable entity to offset the loss on the sale of shares (in the future) with the profits the entity is making to effectively reduce his tax payable.  I dont think that this would really be the case here as if he was expecting the shares the fall you would expect that he'd sell at market now while the share price is still high..

Any thoughts?


----------



## Lucky_Country

nioka said:


> Here is one possibility. Someone is expecting the price to rise. They also want to take some of the profit. The shares are held in their super fund which they can't draw from. The answer then would be to transfer the shares leaving cash in the fund. Sell the shares after the increase and the profit does not belong to the fund. Of course the profit is taxable but maybe they also owned RHG which they sell at a loss to offset the ADI profit.
> Ah! The mind boggles at the possible senarios.




I understand yeh a good scenario imo must mean they think the time is almost upon us and if that is the case we should see whom bought the shares


----------



## wipz

Looks like this cheeky fella has just put a massive hunk of shares up for sale at 60c... hmmmm  dont know what to think now


----------



## Lucky_Country

Noticed that myself maybe trying too keep a cap on the sp something is definately up today.
Would need all the buyers + a few more too to take out the order playing games but someone bought another 100,00 and a differnet trade of 50.000


----------



## wipz

wipz said:


> Looks like this cheeky fella has just put a massive hunk of shares up for sale at 60c... hmmmm  dont know what to think now




Looks like hes topping it up too, another 500k on the sale side at 60c,   i think this is a bad sign... Any other thoughts???


----------



## nioka

chance fate said:


> .....hopefully we'll see some 60ft flares to put some fire under the sp in the announcement next week!!!




And put a fire under the groundhog and turn it into barbecued pork spare ribs. Anyone for a barbie? At least ther is something going on today.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well there are only 4 share holders with over 2 million shares too thier name so it will be interesting too see who has diluted transfered or aqccumulated there holding


----------



## chance fate

..reckon to break this groundhog cycle i'm gonna go out and help old ladies cross the road, catch kids falling out of trees, learn some bach or mozart, sculpt some ice, and pay that dude the cash for some life insurance!!!... anything.... argh.....


----------



## Lucky_Country

Only ARQ really have these kinda volume of shares available too sell.
But someone is buying bigtime or a group of instos are buying bigtime


----------



## Lucky_Country

They are at it again what is going on this is madness ?
Please explain ADI reassure us shareholders please !


----------



## Lucky_Country

I notice ARQ has almost 4 million shares traded today and is up is this a coincenece or are they taking thier positions in both companys.
ARQ is drilling in the Canning Basin at the momment tho


----------



## Agentm

too much guessing going on..

the buyer at .60 has been buying all day.  and is happily absorbing whatever comes on the market. i have my ideas who may be, but its guess work really, and will wait until the top 20 is released to confirm 

the kennedy 1H well is practically in the sugarkane, and as it tracks to the zone proper we are seeing the background gas increase, which i agree with ADI in terms of it being encouraging. pretty soon they will be on track and drilling 1,250 Km horizontally into the sugarkane.

the refrac is on in zone 3,  thats going ahead now and should commence in the next few days.

nothing negative in the news at all, and some encouraging news on the kennedy 1H well.


----------



## greenfs

Whilst the ann appears positive, the trade volume rise without a substantial sp increase is very bemusing when the recent daily trade volumes are taken into account. 

As the price has hardly changed in spite of today's volume increase, it seems to me that someone may be exercising some sort of (put) option based upon a pre- existing agreement in writing between two parties.


----------



## Agentm

did i post 1250 km??  

man thats long..  1.25 km is better for kennedy 1H... 

i have a lot of interest in the zone 3 frac on the strength of the zone having the best shows.  but all three zones had great shows, and the well was trying to flow back gas during the wireline as they were just about maxed out on the mud weight!!  all three zones were good, not just one.

all looks good to me, nothing negative in the news.. 

Next week we have a definitive answer.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well I think that what happened today marks the turning point in the ADI story.
It shows there is alot of intrest in ADI and should also show that we are at the pivtol point where we know its full steam ahead.


----------



## Agentm

one sparrow doesnt make a summer..

but it can mean the summer is coming!! so "encouraging" is appropriate.

the chalks are for conocophillips and TCEI a 200,000 acre play, for us we have only 10% of it, and prime acres by the looks, and the jvp's leases were as previously announced, hotly contested. and by major oil companies, not a bunch of wildcatting small caps!!

its very evident the play has got massive upside, and like many i have accumulated and held for a long time and will continue to do so for the duration. I see the 4 mill trades as just a transition of shares, nothing much to be of concern about.. its obvious the size of the trades indicated its a major holder cashing in some shares. and its a new chapter for the next holder. all good news. if it was 4.5 mill shares being dumped on a panic sell then i would be looking everywhere for a spare dollar and buying whatever comes on the market, as that would have tanked the sp to magic prices!!

if you like the story theres still time to gather some more and get on board.

all good IMHO

looking forward we have frac results and updates on this 5000 foot horizontal.. and cause to be "encouraged!!"


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> .. its obvious the size of the trades indicated its a major holder cashing in some shares. and its a new chapter for the next holder. all good news.






Agentm said:


> I agree Agent,  It was obviously a large shareholder who was probably "tired of waiting", and wants the cash for other ventures
> 
> It was actually a pretty clever job they did of offloading their shares ............   Cross trading (possibly the same million or so shares ) to create the appearance of "movement" and then placing the "real" shares on the market to sell  ......
> 
> The thing that I was impressed with, is that the sp, which would normally have tanked under that type of pressure, actually stood up and increased a little ............... There are a lot of savvy buyers out there ............. All you need is a little patience with this one ................ It won't happen overnight, but an extra few months in the overall scheme of things will reward the patient imo .............. Long term hold for me ............. Good luck all.


----------



## Agentm

hey barney, nice to see you still hangin in there.. when we all head to koh somui will you bring our axe and play a tune at sunset??

I have a little thought on todays movement of shares. i think the buyer was a holder of adi shares, as there was definate concern on the cause and effect of the trades.

lets say if that churn happened 2 days ago, the sp would have tanked on speculation "insiders knew something, and are selling out"

i think the arrival of the news release signalled the buy, and it couldnt have been interpreted as a bad signal.. the seller and buyer were lined up a long time before the trades..

the news release was relatively neutral to not signal any buying frenzy also..

thats how i see it..  all IMHO


----------



## henry vanderhave

holding,holding,holding.It looks promising.This has truckloads of potential.Look at ELK WGP on not so much.Could be heading for the space station if big news comes.Patience to let it unfold.holding,holding,holding.PS. the market is like an unpredictable lunatic et moment.Just my ramblings.


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> hey barney, nice to see you still hangin in there.. when we all head to koh somui will you bring our axe and play a tune at sunset??
> 
> I have a little thought on todays movement of shares. i think the buyer was a holder of adi shares, as there was definate concern on the cause and effect of the trades.
> 
> lets say if that churn happened 2 days ago, the sp would have tanked on speculation "insiders knew something, and are selling out"
> 
> i think the arrival of the news release signalled the buy, and it couldnt have been interpreted as a bad signal.. the seller and buyer were lined up a long time before the trades..
> 
> the news release was relatively neutral to not signal any buying frenzy also..
> 
> thats how i see it..  all IMHO





I agree 100% Agent.  The majority of buy/sell orders were obviously pre arranged, and as you say, they waited for the neutral news report so no one would get alarmed, which does indicate "associates" doing business .......... Simply moving some stock around for financial reasons ............ Lets hope those reasons were to save tax when the sp heads north in the future 

PS If the sp gets where I need it to, I'll even consider donating my "Les Paul" to charity !!!!  ............. and thats saying something cause I've owned it for 30 years.  Cheers.

PPS I only said "consider"


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well lets hope it was for tax reasons was getting pretty confusing there yesterday.
I was hoping someone was taking a new majority shareholder position thinking they were acquiring shares from ARQ only a guess tho


----------



## Agentm

hey barney.. dont give the axe away.. 

Lucky_Country,  no way would arq sell down is holdings in ADI.  its just increased it!!

all quiet again and back to groundhog day mode..

On the weekend we get the refrac which is interesting me a lot,  and obviously the well is drilling away in the chalks and eventually word will filter out how well thats going..

looks like the holders are holding and the buyers are uncertain whether the coast is clear to buy..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well annual report out and I like what I read.
Sounds like they are getting set for a big drilling campaign at SL pending results but they strike me as being confident.
Words like company maker short term get me excited !
NT doesnt sound dead and buried more like operator issues (whos paying for the stuff up)
Yemen too start early 2008 and ACP32 late 2008 should be an exciting 18 months for ADI.
Still looking ahead too Indonesia and Thailand all sound exciting prospects enjoy the ride !


----------



## Agentm

i did my own research on NT as i didnt like the delays, what i found was that one of the US jvp's was in court with the operator, they were up for fraud.  it doesnt detract from the success of the play, it just means the jvp has to tread carefully.  i chose not to discuss the things i founbd as ADI and AZZ had chosen not to.  I figured it was under control and nothing has changed in the well,, all that hareally happened is a breakdown in partnerships. so the well is shut in umtil things are sorted.

the report is excellent, its clear that they see the play as a new discovery, as do conocophillips.

the frac is on any day now, so  next week we will have clear understandings on the flow, and by then kennedy 1h will be a good way towards finishing the horizontal section, it takes only 10 days to complete it.

the other projects in asia are exciting.. as is yemen

good luck if your in it


----------



## fflintoff

Another Pioneer horizontal well planned for Edwards ( up to 17000ft ) at the mega Pawnee field.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...Y&name=MANSKER+RANCH+G.U.&univDocNo=484827818


----------



## resourceboom

agentm, I'm sure you've seen this, its from another devoted researchee JackoHelp in the uk....

http://rrcsearch.neubus.com/esd-rrc/index.php?_module_=esd&_action_=viewimage&id=412179&oversized=0

You've long mentioned K1 as not producing from the Kane. This link seems to back that up!

But this is a very intesting and confusing read !!


----------



## Agentm

resource, i was under the impression kunde 1 was only producing above 11520 feet,  in those documents that restriction was removed. i believe the well is currently only producing from that zone, its because they have named the zone and its listed on the RRC database monthly what the production figures are.  i am given the impression the kunde 1 well is not allthat it seems, and its entirely capable of a lot more production, i think the 500 barrels of oil per day from couch oil was not based on fiction. i feel the kunde 1 well may indeed be allowed to produce in perhaps a far better fashion in the near future.

in terms of next week, i am very unsettled by the kunde 2 well, the well is completed yet no shows were reported by eme in any of the three zones, 

lets hope the frac and the kennedy 1h well comes through with some news, as the "no news" from kunde 2 is not making  a good picture there. i hope is just a case of the EME directors holding back price sensitive information deliberately, because if it isnt, and the well is dry, then things will take a dramatic turn i feel, its very unsettling in that respect..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well after reading the annual report I feel more confident than ever.
Very unusual for ADI management too be so bullish with the phrases "company maker"
Not long too go now with results and then all should be reveiled


----------



## mpls

agentm,

Do you know for a fact which rig was drilling kunde#2 directional?
Do you know for a fact which rig is now drilling the baker well?
Do you know for a fact when rigs moved?

The fact I know is

"As at 2pm (Texas time) on 4 October, the operator had made good drilling
progress and was drilling ahead at 7,555 feet."

Kennedy was drilling at some 450ft per day. On that rate Kunde#2 would reach TD(12800ft) 11.5 days later at 2am (Texas time) on 16th Oct. Which doesn't match with your "rig is moved off ages ago"

How do you know "kunde 2 is completed to the current permit"?

Even if you are right about completion, not sure you can say "no news must point to the the fact that all three austin chalks zones were dry". Did we get show reports from Kunde#3? How delayed was the K3 spud announcement? How delayed was the K3 flaring announcement.

It seems to me that without the Oz jvp involved in Block A (and the consequent tighter rules on announcing) then we have to wait a little longer for the news to come out.


----------



## Agentm

mpls.

i seem to remember the kunde 3 announcing shows all the way through the drill. but if you say they did not then so be it. i remeber plenty of people making money on knowing about the shows a week beforehand.. 
hows the volumes been going lately? is all ok? nothing suspect at all?


why is there no update on the status of the completed kunde 2 well. 

i ask you mpls,  are you certain the well is not completed and that the nabors 775 rig is not drilling the baker 1 well? 

i think the fact there is no news will be negative, not positive on the jvp's as the three zones prospectiveness can be questioned if a rig moves off and no horizontal is drilled and no explanation is given..

i think they got shows in all three zones, i think the will test the zone 1 and then later return the nabors 775 rig to make a horizontal out of kunde 2, and i think they will go into zone 3 with that well.


others will think there is a problem with the well..  why not report whats going on operationally, if at least not to disclose the detials or results, but to at least give the shareholders some clarity on whats being done.


----------



## Father Ted

agentm

I personally don't think that the Kunde #2 well has completed to permit depth yet. I think it's not far off, but may have been delayed by the paper work.

It was only on 16th Oct, that the permit for Kunde#2 was revised to remove the restriction not to produce concurrently from the same reservoir as the Kunde #3 well.

This has probably caused a (nother) (small) delay in drilling to target depth, which must be close, but is probably not there yet.

This project, from the very start, has been maticulously planned and timing is everything in keeping the ball in play. delays will occur, but it all seems to knit together pretty well, considering the number of operations that are now involved.

I can't see why the UK bb's get so up tight about all this.

father ted


----------



## Agentm

well father, with your devine intervention we may have to pray a little and hope all is well at kunde 2!

i cant see the fuss, i would have though an operational update is easy to do, the eme directors are updated daily, and the nabors operators have systems which allow you to log in on the net and see exactly where you are with the well..

imho no news from eme can allow people to get in under the real price the share would be if that news was released.. i dont follow volumes, but in the last week adi had some crazy share trades,, did eme have anything there?


----------



## mpls

i ask you mpls, are you certain the well is not completed and that the nabors 775 rig is not drilling the baker 1 well?

*I never said the well was not complete, only that on 4 October they drilling ahead at 7,555 feet.*



i think the fact there is no news will be negative, not positive on the jvp's as the three zones prospectiveness can be questioned if a rig moves off and no horizontal is drilled and no explanation is given..

*Hmmmmmmmm, negative on three zones*



i think they got shows in all three zones, i think the will test the zone 1 and then later return the nabors 775 rig to make a horizontal out of kunde 2, and i think they will go into zone 3 with that well.

*Hmmmmmmmm, you are now positve on three zones as you state testing*


----------



## Father Ted

agentm,

sorry I just missed your last post, but I don't follow what you are saying.

_quote agentm_..."i think the fact there is no news will be negative, not positive on the jvp's as the three zones prospectiveness can be questioned if a rig moves off and no horizontal is drilled and no explanation is given.."

Are you talking about kunde #2? - because it was never going to be a horizontal from the permit!

_quote agentm_..." i think they got shows in all three zones, i think the will test the zone 1 and then later return the nabors 775 rig to make a horizontal out of kunde 2, and i think they will go into zone 3 with that well.."

It's entirely possible that after they have done _all _the development testing, that, as they have three zones, they may end up with a horizontal well in each zone, but I think that's a long way off yet.

father ted


----------



## fflintoff

Considering how much weight agentm ´s posts carry ( rightly or wrongly ) it is not surprising that he has stirred up a hornet ´s nest. Perhaps it might be better sometimes to keep certain thoughts re dry wells very very private as it plays into the hands of the UK numpties such as Robin, cahbunny, one2many etc in particular. Maybe a retraction & an apology for such thoughtlessness will suffice?


----------



## mpls

Good Point Father Ted!

_It was only on 16th Oct, that the permit for Kunde#2 was revised to remove the restriction not to produce concurrently from the same reservoir as the Kunde #3 well._

So if the rig was moved off on the 15th why would on 16th Oct they revise the permit so they could produce from Zone 3.

Certainly not because they found no shows!


----------



## Father Ted

agentm

Facts - that's the key here.

As I have said before, there are things we know - and things we don't know - and things we _think _we know.

I assume that all that is being said under the _'I think' _ banner, are just things that we _'think we know'_



Agentm said:


> .... and the nabors operators have systems which allow *you* to log in on the net and see exactly where you are with the well..




would the '*you*' be an *'us' *or a *'them'*?

If an 'us' please let on how.

father ted


----------



## Lucky_Country

Everyone is entitiled too there own assumptions on the drilling campaign but hopefully by now no one is going too change what there thoughts are at this point in time ie. selling out with news just around the corner based on 1 post which is only a persons own point of view.
We have waited this long if you are not prepared for the gamble then you should not have invested in the first place.
Lastly GOOD LUCK TOO ALL HOLDERS !


----------



## fflintoff

Lucky_Country said:


> Everyone is entitiled too there own assumptions on the drilling campaign but hopefully by now no one is going too change what there thoughts are at this point in time ie. selling out with news just around the corner based on 1 post which is only a persons own point of view.
> We have waited this long if you are not prepared for the gamble then you should not have invested in the first place.
> Lastly GOOD LUCK TOO ALL HOLDERS !




I fully agree with your opinion that everybody is entitled to their own view even if it is irresponsible ………..”i feel the "no news" and the conclusion "there is no news to report" must point to the the fact that all three austin chalks zones were dry,”
 However it is strongly believed by some on the UK threads that certain high profile posters on ASF & HC are attempting to manipulate the EME price & have an agenda there. Hence the EME investors have deep reservations about the conflicting & inconsistent views that are sometimes expressed.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Does ASF and HC have a real influnce over the EME share price I am not so sure on that one but rule nothing out.
Personally I feel those in the know already know and have got there holding.
Thursday over after the weekly update nothing overly exciting in it over 4.5 million shares in ADI were traded in the day very rare you see over 100,000 traded lately then lo and behold the following day we have the Annual report  with comments like "company maker" thrown in there.
The point being we average punters take all points of view and weigh them up and decide what is right for our own investments personally I dont know whats happening within the companies but I like how ADI management conduct themselves and run their buissness hopefully we all benefit from our prospective companies pity some know more than others and we are not all on a level playing field.
People like yourselves obviously know the oil and gas industry very well and all of your info is kindly regarded


----------



## Agentm

i saw 4 mill shares traded last week..  in one day.. so i  investigated..

the uk boys are snowballed and are completely certain the kunde well is still drilling, and are blind to the reality of the operations there, eme has deliberately done this and its a great trading envelope ther for holders in the share, the knowledge they sit on and are not releasing is astounding, yet their sp drops day in day out. so obviously as far as the management is concerned they are not worried about the share price, nor are they remotely concerned about not releasing any data on wells that are completed.  I asked a simple question after making a few hints all week that the usual suspects have been throwing the eme shareholders off the game,  the debate on who's forum is the best was of no interest, the moment i asked how kunde 2 was, i got slammed!! i dont understand why its such a touvchy issue, its a very simple question, is it fair to assume that a completed well with no reporting is perhaps negative news??  

i wont live in a world of fantasy, if the uk forum wants to believe the kunde 2 well has a rig on it and is drilling then so be it.. 

as far as i am concerned the lack of any reporting on whats down there can be very negative, once a rig has moved off and is drilling another well. particularily if no reporting is done, surely you cant hold back price sensitive news on a pubically listed company? and i am absolutely sure there is some taking advantage of it in light of whats happening down on the kunde sites! as they are not doing things operationally which indicates anything negative, its the lack of reporting in light of what is happening operationally thats obviously going to make the insiders a good fortune.. does anyone know what sort of volumes eme has done lets say in the last 2 weeks compared to the average?

as far as Sl1 goes, and the frac, we will be updated shortly, as with kennedy 1H, i know that ADI wil report and not hold back too much news.


good luck to all holders..


----------



## Agentm

JOINT ASX/MEDIA ANNOUNCEMENT
Monday, 22 October 2007

Anzon and ARC announce merger discussions

The Boards of Anzon Australia Limited (“Anzon”) (ASX:AZA) and ARC Energy Limited (“ARC”) (ASX:ARQ) today announced that they are currently negotiating the final terms of a proposed merger of the companies (“Merger”) and have requested a trading halt in the shares of both of the Companies for a period of 2 days while negotiations are finalised.

The proposed Merger remains subject to the agreement of final outstanding terms and execution of a merger implementation deed. An agreement to proceed with the Merger will conclude Anzon’s strategic review process announced on 17 September, 2007. Anzon received a number of proposals and has elected to pursue the Merger with ARC on an exclusive basis.

About Anzon

Anzon is an upstream oil and gas company listed on the ASX on 15 December 2004, to acquire, explore, develop and commercialise oil and gas fields in Australasia. Anzon’s principal asset is a 40% interest in the Basker, Manta and Gummy Fields of which Anzon is also the operator. Anzon has built an enviable record of declaring a profit in each full year since listing. The key to this performance has been the rapid development of the Basker Manta oil fields by Anzon’s technical team of staff and contractors. Merging the BMG Project with a more balanced portfolio of assets has been a stated goal of Anzon.

About ARC
ARC is one of Australia’s pre-eminent mid-tier energy companies, owning and operating oil and gas interests in the Perth, Canning and Bass Basins and internationally. ARC has an aggressive onshore and offshore exploration and development drilling program. It has a successful track record of the early adoption of innovative technical and commercial practices and project and corporate delivery.


interesting indeed


----------



## dont jump

You can see the volume on EME, slightly up against the last week or so in September but nothing vast.

Go to www.Ft.com > put uk:eme in quotes, hit go and select analytical charting.

The link was too long to post.


----------



## Father Ted

Agentm said:


> i saw 4 mill shares traded last week..  in one day.. so i  investigated..
> 
> the uk boys are snowballed and are completely certain the kunde well is still drilling, and are blind to the reality of the operations there, eme has deliberately done this and its a great trading envelope ther for holders in the share, the knowledge they sit on and are not releasing is astounding, yet their sp drops day in day out. so obviously as far as the management is concerned they are not worried about the share price, nor are they remotely concerned about not releasing any data on wells that are completed.  I asked a simple question after making a few hints all week that the usual suspects have been throwing the eme shareholders off the game,  the debate on who's forum is the best was of no interest, the moment i asked how kunde 2 was, i got slammed!! i dont understand why its such a touvchy issue, its a very simple question, is it fair to assume that a completed well with no reporting is perhaps negative news??
> 
> i wont live in a world of fantasy, if the uk forum wants to believe the kunde 2 well has a rig on it and is drilling then so be it..
> 
> as far as i am concerned the lack of any reporting on whats down there can be very negative, once a rig has moved off and is drilling another well. particularily if no reporting is done, surely you cant hold back price sensitive news on a pubically listed company? and i am absolutely sure there is some taking advantage of it in light of whats happening down on the kunde sites! as they are not doing things operationally which indicates anything negative, its the lack of reporting in light of what is happening operationally thats obviously going to make the insiders a good fortune.. does anyone know what sort of volumes eme has done lets say in the last 2 weeks compared to the average?
> 
> as far as Sl1 goes, and the frac, we will be updated shortly, as with kennedy 1H, i know that ADI wil report and not hold back too much news.
> 
> 
> good luck to all holders..




Agentm

With respect, I think you are in part to blame for the reaction. It is very difficult for people to blindly accept a statement that the rig has moved on, simple on your say so. You do not indicate how you know, and frequently add to the uncertainty by including 'I think'.

An 'I know, because..." may go down better.

As you aware, it's very difficult sorting fact from fiction with sugarloaf, and if we say 'I think..', then can only taken as an opinion at best.

Do you have any positive evidence that the rig has moved on? - if so what is it?

father ted


----------



## Agentm

father ted..

i am over it now.. 

if you think the kunde well is still drilling and was never completed then so be it. my research tells me baker 1 well is being drilled by the nabors 775 rig. my research tells me the nabors 775 rig has also drilled the kunde 2 well. you dont have to believe it father, its your choice. i am not asking you to believe it, all eme holders have made it clear they dont want comment on kunde 2, so its a dead issue to me, why continue to drag it on, if you trust eme management to be updating you correctly then so be it..  and invest accordingly..

unclefox posted on hotcopper that a bird told him an announcement is due tomorrow.. i believe that, not because i need proof, i trust the source!!  

lets say i think those who are in the bigger picture, like ones buying 4.5 mill shares in one day, see the bigger picture. that picture is the kunde 3 well and kennedy 1H well.  IMHO  you dont buy 4.5 mill shares on a guess, you have to have a fair degree of certainty.. it doesnt happen in AUT nor in EKA nor from what i have seen in eme, but in ADI i see massive share tranfers, and the ones accumulating have brillinat credentials.

somehow in the scheme of things the 4.5 mill share purchase is going to be looked at one day as a massive mistake or an extremely wise decision.

lets see what the jvps throw at us next,  the frac has gone off and there would be some idea of what to do next, and the kennedy 1h well is drilling away into the sugarkane.. the fact that they are not reporting (including the lack of updates on the mumbojumbo wells) tells me they are not allowed to say anything. which makes what unclefox said very interesting indeed..


----------



## fflintoff

The majority of last week ´s buy/sell orders were pre arranged. Simply moving some stock around for financial / tax reasons. No big deal & nothing to get excited about as the trades were not as a result of any fundamental news in the sugarloaf programme unfortunately.


----------



## Father Ted

Agentm said:


> father ted..
> 
> my research tells me baker 1 well is being drilled by the nabors 775 rig. my research tells me the nabors 775 rig has also drilled the kunde 2 well.




Agentm,

Oh dear! I'm sorry to say that you really don't understand why people are having a problem with some of your posts.

ft


----------



## Agentm

Father Ted said:


> Agentm,
> 
> Oh dear! I'm sorry to say that you really don't understand why people are having a problem with some of your posts.
> 
> ft




ok father, as i said before, i am over the kunde 2 well, you can believe what you like, kunde 3 was reported as spudding a month after it was commenced! and you believe the reports coming from eme, i dont happen to. you can rely on your eme reports and i will rely on my research!


----------



## fflintoff

“unclefox posted on hotcopper that a bird told him an announcement is due tomorrow.. i believe that, not because i need proof, i trust the source!!” Yesterday, 09:21 PM

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=215100&postcount=2574

So no news whatsoever as expected.by the rest of us!


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> “unclefox posted on hotcopper that a bird told him an announcement is due tomorrow.. i believe that, not because i need proof, i trust the source!!” Yesterday, 09:21 PM
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=215100&postcount=2574
> 
> So no news whatsoever as expected.by the rest of us!





*Posted By:*unclefox24*Views:*42*Post #:*2217124  (Start of thread)*Sentiment:*Buy*IP:*124.149.xxx.xxx*Voluntary Disclosure:*Stock HeldNo I admit I got it wrong, however buyers building up late in the day so I would expect a spike late this afternoon.

There are plenty of punters getting on , as its very very close.




there you go.. he got it wrong..

and btw,  if he posted a bird told him the same thing right now,, i would trust him again. 

oddly enough your not on HC going nuts at unclefox, your just here gloating on a comment i made and usual unable to see tongue in cheek remarks due to your extremely narrow vision..

give yourself a rest flintoff.. theres no need to save the world on a humorous remark uncle  fox has been beating up all day on HC,, we all have had some fun with it..


----------



## maverick11

I see there are a few new faces around here...

Hopefully tomorrow we will get some news on some of their projects, and more importantly, kennedy 1H.  I know a lot of smart money have moved in on ADI... sitting and waiting.  Have a feeling this one is waiting to explode on the back of some decent news.  Would be good to see this one finally trading in a higher channel, that's for sure.  Only issue is, the operators are clearly controlling the show and not releasing any solid info.  I have been wondering and this is just my opinion that when the cat is released, they will simply offer the JVP a cheque.  Could be very interesting times ahead.


----------



## Agentm

maverick11 said:


> I see there are a few new faces around here...
> 
> Hopefully tomorrow we will get some news on some of their projects, and more importantly, kennedy 1H. I know a lot of smart money have moved in on ADI... sitting and waiting. Have a feeling this one is waiting to explode on the back of some decent news. Would be good to see this one finally trading in a higher channel, that's for sure. Only issue is, the operators are clearly controlling the show and not releasing any solid info. I have been wondering and this is just my opinion that when the cat is released, they will simply offer the JVP a cheque. Could be very interesting times ahead.





at last, someone understands!!

long time no see mav.. but nice return!!

absolutely agree 100% with what your saying, i have seen that theory out there in the email circles, amoungst some very astute investors and observers, and i believe the idea has some credibilty. I have discussed it with adi a few times myself and had mixed responses.. 

absolutely 100% bang on the money, thanks for a brilliant return!


----------



## Lucky_Country

All seems too be shaping up into a jvp buyout especially in ADI's case with the  ARC - ANZON merger and Nexus waiting in the wings ARC would love a nice big cheque for ADI then merge the remains of the company into the new entity !
But what we need first is the results and hopefully they will be forthcoming in the very very near term.
ADI itself has some great projects on the horizon and NT may see some action soon hopefully so the future is bright regardless


----------



## greenfs

It seems today's announcement is bad news for investors and this has immediately reflected in a sp decline. I feel geniunely sad & sorry for those that have invested so much time and effort in this thread.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Very disappointing announcement !
After waiting and holding well over 1 year too be hit with this kind of announcement is not good.
Annual report was full of confidence company maker then this not commercial no better shows in Kennedy 1 what is going on no more delays put us out of our misery and tell us what we have or have not got !


----------



## sbop

Bugger!............. Oh well i guess its not as bad as say............. hmmmm ..... Sons of Gwalia. 

Good luck to all holders with the Other two zones.


----------



## dont jump

It is best out of three remember . As I try to keep positive .

Disappointing yes but thats the oil and gas industry for you.


----------



## Lert

There is a lot more to ADI than the Sugarloaf-1 hole.. I grabbed another bundle this morning and am prepared to wait this one out..


----------



## Lucky_Country

I will be holding regardless this is an exciting company with many good projects lined up just seems too be dragging out with their SL play its been promising for a year now and ontop of that NT seemed very promising but still none the wiser of what going too happen there.
What concerns me is if no commercial discovery is found and put into production that spells a capital raising too fund future projects.


----------



## Evangeline

Could someone correct me if I'm wrong - but it was my understanding that Couch was referring to the whole of the Austin Chalk section was he not - which would encompass all three zones in S1?   Thanks


----------



## Agentm

no flow in the zone 3..  

only 700 feet in with kennedy1H.. 

some amazing volume today compared to the past few days, excluding the 4.5mill last week..  whereas AUT and EKA are quiet.  AUT seems to not have had any selling and held a nice price for the day.. some nice cross trading going on, i think the buyers are winning big time..

interesting to see the trades yesterday on some of the jvp's we had a lot of selling.. leaky boat syndrome perhaps?

Zone 2 next maybe, and the kennedy 1H continues to drill away..

smart buying today thus far as far as i am concerned.. real clever..


----------



## Evangeline

Yes - there are still nearly a million buyers today, which is interesting.  I am thinking that news in the following weeks will be more positive.  Very noncommital on Kennedy today.


----------



## Evangeline

Sorry - I meant 1 million shares traded....not buyers..I wish.  Top 20 still not updated on website - what was that all about...something going on and someone is mopping up those throwaway shares.  hmmmm..........


----------



## wallave

Strike 1 hey...hold on, was Hosston Strike 1.  Two more hits to go.

Lets hope that isn't going to be more long delays before they go ahead and test the next zone.

With Kennedy they have gone a further 700feet with no rise in the gas pressure.  Is anyone aware of how far into the horizontal that they are expecting some increased pressure?


----------



## Evangeline

They are looking for fractures (I gather) and that could happen anytime - its not a uniform thing, so the fact that the background is 100 units is not necessarily a problem.  Surely they would abandon ship if they were not confident - it must be a very expensive process.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Earlier in SL they had background gas @ 30 units peaking @326 units and still wasnt commercial in the Hosston Sands.
If NT had of been completed and in production at least we would have a floor under the sp. The operator there has alot too answer for


----------



## blues

I have been emailing ADI a few times in the last few weeks and from a response today the level of background gas is roughly consistent with what has been seen in other wells. They are looking for natural fractures which havent been encountered in Kennedy yet. They basically said there is still along way to go yet and there shouldnt be any geological reason why these natural fractures should not be present in our area. 

I have held ADI for over 18 months and I have taken some profit off the table today.

Cheers


----------



## Broadside

thanks for the post blues, that is encouraging and we certainly need some (encouragement)....sounds like if the percentages come in the fractures will be encountered in Kennedy, but as always there is risk.  Still holding for risk/reward but a little less insurance now that zone 3 is no go at Sugarloaf-1.


----------



## Agentm

early days.  the well is only just begun.


these low levels of background gas are not unusual for what has been experienced in all the wells.

there is no reason to say the well cant be fraced and will produce in the 700 feet drilled so far. the readings can be misleading, we are using oil based mud, and we dont know the integrity/calibrations of the loggers and reading equipment..

its not over until the frac lady sings


----------



## fflintoff

Open briefing from ARQ earlier related to their ADI holding..

“We will also be continuing to aggressively build on the asset base and are also looking at further corporate growth. One of the things the merger will do is give us the impetus to look closely at the assets outside our core areas. These include the Anzon New Zealand assets and our Yemen assets and our holding in Adelphi.
These will all need review in the context of the new asset portfolio.”


http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Open Briefing AZA and ARC Agree Merger 24 Oct 07.pdf


----------



## nioka

fflintoff said:


> Open briefing from ARQ earlier related to their ADI holding..
> 
> “We will also be continuing to aggressively build on the asset base and are also looking at further corporate growth. One of the things the merger will do is give us the impetus to look closely at the assets outside our core areas. These include the Anzon New Zealand assets and our Yemen assets and our holding in Adelphi.
> These will all need review in the context of the new asset portfolio.”




In view of today's results I think I will do the same as ARQ and review my holding in ADI and AUT. They are starting to bark. For the first time I am beginning to question the wisdom holding. If ARQ are unsure why should I not be unsure too.


----------



## sam76

All this negativity is likey to make me paranoid. 

My (limited) understanding is that zone two and three were only going to be bonuses to the mother load that is zone 1.

So what if zone three wasn't flowing in that location. There are many more locations in the 20,000 acres.

Admittedly I sold out half my holding in AUT first thing this morning at .54then bought ADI at .52

I think a lot of people got caught out thinking that all 3 zones were going to be brilliant.

There is a lot more to this field then one flow test.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Its definately not all doom and gloom just getting a bit frustrating as we have been waiting a long time waiting for some definate positive news.
I personally would not rule out any of the zones unless they have been horizontally drilled then fraced upon which time no more could be done too make them commercial.
SL 1 is just being used as an information gathering system at the momment may 1 day become a horizontal well itself upon completion of vertical frac and flow testing of all 3 zones.
The next week will be interesting with the Kennedy 1 well drilling deeper into the upper zone hopefully producing higher reading but still may require fracing.
Good luck too all !


----------



## Agentm

ARQ  has not even completed this merger, it could go two way or spanner into a three way fromidable merger.. 

all assets would be reviewed,, thats logic..

no way will ARQ release this one until the fat lady sings..

and i would be staggered if kennedy 1H did not replicate kunde 3..


----------



## Evangeline

Well the new top 20 list is out on the website.  Quite substantial changes....ARC still has the same holding however.  HSBC Custody Nominees has sold out...previously was the second largest holder after ARC.  New is Tricom Nominees with 1500 and JH Nominees with 500k, as well as Mr Paul Nagle.


----------



## nioka

sam76 said:


> All this negativity is likey to make me paranoid.
> 
> Admittedly I sold out half my holding in AUT first thing this morning at .54then bought ADI at .52s




It's groundhogs that are making me paranoid. I considered selling AUT and buying more ADI as I would have done in the past because of the relative prices. I decided not to, but to continue holding AUT as insurance, because AUT has some other prospects apart from Sugarloaf.


----------



## fflintoff

Three way merger is inaccurate which is hardly surprising considering the prior bad blood between Nexus & Anzon:-

“Nexus also notes today’s inaccurate media speculation that it is in discussions with Anzon and ARC in relation to a three-way merger and wishes to clarify its position.
Whilst a merger proposal with respect to Anzon was put forward a number of weeks ago, the proposal did not extend to a three-way merger and such a proposal is not under consideration by the Board of Nexus.”


----------



## Lert

Evangeline said:


> Well the new top 20 list is out on the website.  Quite substantial changes....ARC still has the same holding however.  HSBC Custody Nominees has sold out...previously was the second largest holder after ARC.  New is Tricom Nominees with 1500 and JH Nominees with 500k, as well as Mr Paul Nagle.




I see that the missus Streitberg still has her 1.2mil shares (my barometer so to speak)  I took the chance to double my holding today at a 10% reduction in average buy price.. sitting tight..


----------



## Metron

Evangeline said:


> Well the new top 20 list is out on the website.  Quite substantial changes....ARC still has the same holding however.  HSBC Custody Nominees has sold out...previously was the second largest holder after ARC.  New is Tricom Nominees with 1500 and JH Nominees with 500k, as well as Mr Paul Nagle.




I was a little uncomfortable with HSBC selling their 4.6 (ish) million shares when I found out last week... 

Tricom however bring some fresh credibility given their prior connections/relationship with Babcock & Brown.

I don't know much about JH Nominees but they are Top 20 ARC ShareHolders so no big surprises there! (I assume a phone call from ARC helped in placing the stock!)  UPDATE: ALSO TROJAN!

As for Mr. Paul Nagle, he is a real Estate Agent from FNQ but more importantly is a Trojan client.

Incidentally, if you were to do the sums, Trojan in it's various forms and related people easily hold down the theoretical Number 2 spot close behind ARC Energy...

It seems Troy Harry (Trojan) swept them all up!

Metron

PS. All this information is *Easily* available form a quick Googleing


----------



## Evangeline

Yes..I noticed a strong connection with Trojan with many of the top 20...interesting.  Thomas Brian Cannon..who has been accummulating steadily over the last couple of months and now has 880k, was an executive in Pipenetworks....and one of the directors of Trojan is also with Pipenetworks.

Hmmm......what does it all mean?


----------



## Metron

Evangeline said:


> Yes..I noticed a strong connection with Trojan with many of the top 20...interesting.  Thomas Brian Cannon..who has been accummulating steadily over the last couple of months and now has 880k, was an executive in Pipenetworks....and one of the directors of Trojan is also with Pipenetworks.
> 
> Hmmm......what does it all mean?




Pessimistically it means there is not a lot of "Breadth" to the stock...

But that is perhaps a bit "glass half empty"...


----------



## zander

I am not holding. 
Maybe this is of some use to holders maybe not:

One of the things the merger will do is give
us the impetus to look closely at the assets outside our core areas. These include
the Anzon New Zealand assets and our Yemen assets and our holding in Adelphi.
These will all need review in the context of the new asset portfolio.
corporatefile.com.au
Thank you Eric.


----------



## Agentm

so the trojans are still buying.. great to see.

I think if i recall there is well called kennedy 1H drilling  a 5000 foot horizontal in karnes county.. 

should think about that as who is buying what, and who mergers with whom is all very interesting, but its not exactly going to give you cash in the hip pocket!!

all holders must be getting flighty now, and there is plenty of crews around on all the stocks waiting for the stock to come on the boards..

the stockmarket is a means of transfering wealth from the impatient to the patient..  

thats what i am seeing..

look at the big picture, look at who is spending literally countless millions on the play, have they stopped, are they convinced the chalks dont produce? if they are not then either am i !!!


----------



## Evangeline

Glad to hear it M, certainly took a body blow yesterday.  Not much point jumping prematurely though...all those new major shareholders from last week must have been pretty convinced to take out such big stakes....wonder how they are feeling after big drop yesterday.....or are they better informed than us mere mortals?


----------



## Agentm

they pinned their ears back and bought up bigtime!!

its greats prices right now, so plenty are taking advantage, and why not!!

there are now 3 horizontals in the sugarkane and no sign of it stopping..

i am not convinced conocophillips and TCEI are at all slowing down, baker 1 is drilling away and we see the successes of Kunde 3 is just a handful of miles away.. 

plenty happening in kaarnes and live oak....


----------



## Evangeline

Well at least the bleeding seems to have stopped...very low volume.  ADI seems ok, but I'm a bit worried about the EKAOs I picked up the other day....if this waiting game stretches out too much longer.  Hohum...


----------



## Lucky_Country

Kennedy 1 should be drilling ahead quite nicely in the horizontal by now.
If they are true too there words we should hear some news in quick time if successful but if we hear nothing by next wednesdays update then i would be worried


----------



## Agentm

i wouldnt assume anything at kennedy now.

i looked at the top 20 on eka today,, i noted a certain person who also is a broker has accumulated a lot of shares and options.

i think its obvious those who are close to the action are topping up big time..

very bullish signals here imho..


----------



## mick z

Agentm said:


> i wouldnt assume anything at kennedy now.
> 
> i looked at the top 20 on eka today,, i noted a certain person who also is a broker has accumulated a lot of shares and options.
> 
> i think its obvious those who are close to the action are topping up big time..
> 
> very bullish signals here imho..




how is it they are topping up big time when i see only low volume.
one of the top 20 has sold out, why would a top 20 holder sell out ? you would think a top 20 holder would be in the know.....puzzled

mick


----------



## Agentm

mick you cant assume to know all the reasonings for a top 20 to sell out, but each time it happens a bunch of it goes one direction..

the adi top 20 had had a lot of big buyers,, sometimes the company isnt obvious to the person looking who they are.. once you figure it out the volumes you see (like the 4 mill the other day) appear in other peoples hands on the next update.  I keep the updates and then check them against the next ones.. 

you see one exit,, i see people coming in and others getting more..  i dont know the one who left, but i know about the ones in and newbies,, allgood imho


----------



## Evangeline

Well a of them went to people associated with Trojan in some way.....Trojan are a fund........there's plenty of other investment funds too - like ANZ and SG etc......Is Trojan a broker?


----------



## Evangeline

What we do know about the new top twenty....

Mr & Mrs Nagle are investors in Trojan.  

Mr Cannon ( who has been steadily accummulating huge chunks) is an executive in Pipe Networks (an IT operation).  

The chairman of Pipe Networks is also a non-executive director at Trojan.

So Trojan now has, by association, about 2.6 million shares.  

But nobody knows what is in S1 and Kennedy until they test it...

Why did the second largest holder HSBC sell out at this critical juncture?

Big shakeup in the company - everything pre-arranged for massive chunks of the stock to change hands.  

So it seems Troy Harry once worked for Morgans and is indeed a broker from Brisbane now running his own operation.


----------



## Evangeline

Manukey is not new but they also have a 5% stake in Trojan and they hold 500k in ADI.  So that makes over 3 million shares associated with Trojan...the 4th largest holder.

Tricom are new big holders in ADI with 1.5 million, and they are closely associated to Babcock & Brown...indeed it has been said they have on occasion been a little too close.  So they probably bought in last week at 60 too.


----------



## Agentm

looking forwad to how these two wells come up.. kunde and kennedy.

I have an impression the elephants are starting to gather.. it was evidenced last week when we saw some exciting SP activity, with a lot of very keen buying on the HSBC exit. 

koh samui is looking good imho..


----------



## Evangeline

I have a good feeling about next weeks announcement.....there will have been a lot more progress at Kennedy and news should start to flow more freely...no reason for further delays now


----------



## Agentm

so have i..

conocophilips is just marching on.

imho we wont see any change in the sentiment of the reporting, adi have maintained this dead pan no frills monotone reporting throughout. enabling them to release the detail of what they have and in the case of the last few reports, the market has completely misunderstood and misread the implications of the content of the report.. whats has been seen as negative in the kennedy well at a later stage will be evident as the contrary imho.

all great buying prices currently.. pity i am totally maxed up on these guys!!

sit back and relax.. plan for the full moon party koh samui early next year then!


----------



## Agentm

well its quiet around here

so who's up for koh samui?

lets get the show on the road..  the elephant now stays..


----------



## kevro

Agent M

what happened to your cat. Its grown a set of tusks and the ears are a little larger.

kevro


----------



## Agentm

thats just one of the elephants couchy was talking about,, see how big and mean it looks.. i hear thers a whole masssive heard of them stampeding our way!!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hope its not a white elephant !
Could become embarrasing but we have faith just not as confident as you until I see it in black and white


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:


> Hope its not a white elephant !



 I'm beginning to think it may have been a pink elephant. I just hope someone is not looking at ADI through rose tinted glasses.


----------



## Agentm

everyones talking it up big time..  i think theres a lot of confidence in amoungst the brokers.. 

all in all i think couch got it right..


----------



## Agentm

you see the faith comes from understanding what conocphillips is doing and what TCEI are doing, and who TCEI were the leases were before we arrived.. 

Its strange, but if you dig below the surface, you find things..

cheers


----------



## greenfs

Agentm said:


> you see the faith comes from understanding what conocphillips is doing and what TCEI are doing, and who TCEI were the leases were before we arrived..
> 
> Its strange, but if you dig below the surface, you find things..
> 
> cheers




Pity ADI can't find anything below the surface. Mebbe we should all get out there and help em dig instead of reading this thread furever


----------



## Agentm

greenfs said:


> Pity ADI can't find anything below the surface. Mebbe we should all get out there and help em dig instead of reading this thread furever





i am up for it.. would love to be there and help them out..

you dont have to read the tread though.. i only look in a few myself.. so easy to fix.. just dont read it if it bugs you!!


----------



## Evangeline

Having another look at the top 20 shareholders and option holders in Trojan Equity and it seems I missed a few names also in ADI:

Michael Craft (and by association I guess Fopar Nominees) are also investors in the Trojan Equity fund.  Another 1.7 million ADI right there

JH Nominees is a fund for the Harry family.....500k

Now we're looking at about 5 million ADI shares owned by Trojan and associated companies and clients!  

These guys are up to their eyeballs in ADI! ANZ nominees are also major investors in the Trojan Fund....well well well...

Trojan Equities largest investment is in ARC....


----------



## Father Ted

So it looks as if the Kunde#2 well has not been drilled (to full depth) yet!

The following is on the RRC website under the Kunde#2 permit details.

This permit has moved from 'Engineering' to 'State Wide Rule Hold' catagory.

Two new documents (interestingly both dated 29th Oct 2007!)have appeared today, the main document of interest:

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/300000-399999//PR0000372842_0001.pdf

states:

RAILROAD COMMISSION OF TEXAS

OIL AND GAS DIVISION
DISTRICT 02
Rule 37 Case No. 0254056
DATE OF ISSUANCE: Oct 29, 2007
Status/Permit No. 625493

N O T I C E O F A P P L I C A T I O N

NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP, [RRC Operator No.
109333] has made application for a spacing exception permit under the provisions of
Railroad Commission Statewide Rule 37 (16 Tex. Admin. Code section 3.37). Applicant
seeks exception to the DISTANCE BETWEEN WELLS requirement for the AMENDED NEW DRILL
permit in Sec. 120, Bk. , INGRAM, J Survey, A-261, WILDCAT Field, LIVE OAK County, being
15 miles SW direction from KENEDY, Texas. The location and identity of the well is as
follows:

FIELD: WILDCAT
---------------
*Lease/Unit Name : KUNDE NO. 1 GAS UNIT
Lease/Unit Well No. : 2*
Lease/Unit Acres : 683.94
Nearest Lease Line (ft) : 1720.0
Nearest Well on Lease (ft) : 611.0
Lease Lines : 845.0 F EAST L, 2070.0 F NORTH L
Survey Lines : 3699.0 F SOUTH L, 845.0 F EAST L
Wellbore Profile(s) : Directional
Bottom Hole: BH1
Lease Lines: 1720.0 F E L
2399.0 F S L
Survey Lines: 1720.0 F E L
2856.0 F S L

Field Rules for ALL fields on the permit application are as follows:
WILDCAT : Statewide rules 467/1200, 40.0 acres.

*This well is to be drilled to an approximate depth of 12800 feet.*

If you have questions regarding this application, please contact the Applicant's
representative, Ceal Yarbrough, at (832)4862591.
PURSUANT TO THE TERMS of Railroad Commission rules and regulations, this application may
be granted without a hearing if no protest to the application is received. An affected
person is entitled to protest this application. Affected persons include owners of
record and the operator or lessees of record of adjacent tracts and tracts nearer to the
proposed well than the minimum lease line spacing distance. If a hearing is called, the
applicant has the burden to prove the need for an exception. A Protestant should be
prepared to establish standing as an affected person, and to appear at the hearing either
in person or by qualified representative and protest the application with
cross-examination or presentation of a direct case. The rules of evidence are applicable
in the hearing. If you have any questions regarding the hearing procedure, please contact
the Commission at (512)463-6848. If you have questions which are specific to the
Application or the information set forth in this Notice, please contact the Commission at
(512)463-6701.
IF YOU WISH TO REQUEST A HEARING ON THIS APPLICATION, YOU MUST FILL OUT, SIGN AND MAIL OR
DELIVER TO THE AUSTIN OFFICE OF THE RAILROAD COMMISSION OF TEXAS THE ENCLOSED NOTICE OF

INTENT TO APPEAR IN PROTEST. A COPY OF THE INTENT TO APPEAR IN PROTEST MUST ALSO BE
MAILED OR DELIVERED ON THE SAME DATE TO APPLICANT AT THE ADDRESS SHOWN ON THE SERVICE
LIST. THIS INTENT TO APPEAR IN PROTEST MUST BE RECEIVED IN THE RAILROAD COMMISSION'S
AUSTIN OFFICE WITHIN THREE WEEKS OF THE DATE OF ISSUANCE OF THIS NOTICE OF APPLICATION.
IF NO PROTEST IS RECEIVED WITHIN SUCH TIME, THE REQUESTED PERMIT MAY BE GRANTED
ADMINISTRATIVELY, TO BE EFFECTIVE THE DAY FOLLOWING THE TERMINATION OF SUCH THREE-WEEK
PERIOD.

My guess is that rig did move off to drill Baker #1 and won't be back until the mess with the paper work is sorted out. _How long is that likely to take to drill Baker #1_first?

father ted


----------



## Agentm

*The commercial significance of the elevated gas background is not known but is regarded as encouraging*.​ 

Background gas levels within this horizontal section drilled to date have continued to be broadly consistent with those reported last week.​ 
*interesting comments.. *​ 
just as this was on 29th september 2006​ 
Wire-line logs were successfully run over the open hole section of the well between 6,500 feet (1,981 metres) and the present well depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres). 
Interpretation of logs by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc, indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling in the secondary target (reported to the ASX on the 20th September 2006). 
While Adelphi *considers that the logs are encouraging* the commercial significance of the log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing and there is a risk that the zone *may not* flow at commercial rates. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed. 
The current operation at the well-site is the running of the 9-5/8 inch intermediate casing to present depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres). Once run and cemented, the well will continue drilling in 8-1/2 inch diameter hole to the primary target expected between approximately 17,000 feet (5,182 metres) and proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres). There is a further secondary target in carbonate rocks between present depth and just above the primary target. 


the TCEI ADI jvp have a habit of understating the situation.. when they have identical logs to the kunde 1 commercial well, and masiive spikes in pressure, it was report that blandly and with no fan fare..


i will repeat the last parts of the recent announcements again

*The commercial significance of the elevated gas background is not known but is regarded as encouraging*.​ 

dont underestimate what TCEI means as encouraging...!!! i know i have never done so.. encouraging last year meant multi tcf.. what does it mean today???


----------



## barney

Howdy Agent.  Could you do me a favour ..... This thread has become so big, I couldn't even find the pics of the well positions you posted a while back. Would you mind posting a brief pic of the position of the producing Kunde well in relation to the SL1 and Kennedy wells with NSEW direction and distance between wells ........... Also, if possible a rough outline of our lease (dont want much do I??) 

The chosen position of the Kennedy is interesting to me, and I'm curious as to why TCE chose that specific site in relation to the successful well "next door" ............ 

I think its fair to say, that if they have "guessed" right with Kennedy and we hit pay dirt, then it really will be game on ............ of course nothing is for certain, and it should be remembered that both SL1 and Kennedy have still both been drilled primarily to gain information for a possible future drilling programme .............. If we get lucky, that could be one big programme!! ... 

I believe that the upper zone in SL1 is already considered "on the money",and that testing that zone although important, is secondary to results in Kennedy  ....... 

Kennedy is where the importance lies now ............ this is where some real information will be gathered ............. Hoping for a good result like everyone else,  and as you point out, the management is "encouraged" by the results so far ........... AND ...... we still have a long way to drill, so plenty of chances for more "encouragement" before we finish .......... Cheers.


----------



## Father Ted

barney said:


> Howdy Agent.  Could you do me a favour ..... This thread has become so big, I couldn't even find the pics of the well positions you posted a while back. Would you mind posting a brief pic of the position of the producing Kunde well in relation to the SL1 and Kennedy wells with NSEW direction and distance between wells ........... Also, if possible a rough outline of our lease (dont want much do I??)
> 
> The chosen position of the Kennedy is interesting to me, and I'm curious as to why TCE chose that specific site in relation to the successful well "next door" ............
> 
> I think its fair to say, that if they have "guessed" right with Kennedy and we hit pay dirt, then it really will be game on ............ of course nothing is for certain, and it should be remembered that both SL1 and Kennedy have still both been drilled primarily to gain information for a possible future drilling programme .............. If we get lucky, that could be one big programme!! ...
> 
> I believe that the upper zone in SL1 is already considered "on the money",and that testing that zone although important, is secondary to results in Kennedy  .......
> 
> Kennedy is where the importance lies now ............ this is where some real information will be gathered ............. Hoping for a good result like everyone else,  and as you point out, the management is "encouraged" by the results so far ........... AND ...... we still have a long way to drill, so plenty of chances for more "encouragement" before we finish .......... Cheers.




barney

a good starting place would be the Sept 2007 Adelphi presentation, see home page of the adi website - page 12

and I think you will find that there is "not much guess work" about this development.

ft


----------



## fflintoff

Barn,
Have a butchers here:-

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1029194&page=0&vc=1&PHPSESSID=#Post1029194

Kennedy should be at 4000ft lateral soon so the well is likely to be tested before zone 1 at SL.
The SL well could be used as a sidetrack or even drilled out to a full blown horizontal.


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> *The commercial significance of the elevated gas background is not known but is regarded as encouraging*.​
> 
> Background gas levels within this horizontal section drilled to date have continued to be broadly consistent with those reported last week.​
> *interesting comments.. *​
> just as this was on 29th september 2006​
> Wire-line logs were successfully run over the open hole section of the well between 6,500 feet (1,981 metres) and the present well depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres).
> Interpretation of logs by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc, indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling in the secondary target (reported to the ASX on the 20th September 2006).
> While Adelphi *considers that the logs are encouraging* the commercial significance of the log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing and there is a risk that the zone *may not* flow at commercial rates. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed.
> The current operation at the well-site is the running of the 9-5/8 inch intermediate casing to present depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres). Once run and cemented, the well will continue drilling in 8-1/2 inch diameter hole to the primary target expected between approximately 17,000 feet (5,182 metres) and proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres). There is a further secondary target in carbonate rocks between present depth and just above the primary target.
> 
> 
> the TCEI ADI jvp have a habit of understating the situation.. when they have identical logs to the kunde 1 commercial well, and masiive spikes in pressure, it was report that blandly and with no fan fare..
> 
> 
> i will repeat the last parts of the recent announcements again
> 
> *The commercial significance of the elevated gas background is not known but is regarded as encouraging*.​
> 
> dont underestimate what TCEI means as encouraging...!!! i know i have never done so.. encouraging last year meant multi tcf.. what does it mean today???



Agentm, there is no requirement to increase the font size to make a point. 

In regard the statement above you have neatly turned what looks to be a negative report into something less bearish. 

The most significant part of the report is this I believe:



> the commercial significance of the log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing and there is a risk that the zone may not flow at commercial rates. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed.


----------



## Agentm

hey kennas

i tried about 3 times after i posted the thing to reduce the fonts,, i blocked the whole thing and it wouldnt rectify??  so i gave in.. i nearly added a little note but i thought i would just leave it in the end..

sorry about that..

in terms of the adi reporing,, they have been so ordinary in reporting anything positive that you need a microscope,, yet their presentations to brokers and the public are bullish..

i was pointingn out the usual practice of making a good thing sound very neutral or bearish..

have a look at this presentation adn compare it to what i just posted..


the differences are dramatic.. adi are very cautious on making any asx announcements positivein any way, they dont want a gdn senario on the stock..

mind you once things look remotely positive, i feel things will change

cheers

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/presentations/Investor Update Presentation Sep 2007.pdf


----------



## zander

Father Ted said:


> a good starting place would be the Sept 2007 Adelphi presentation, see home page of the adi website - page 12
> 
> and I think you will find that there is "not much guess work" about this development.
> 
> ft





I thought the answer to the riddle was: 'WAGON WHEELS'

page 11 
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/presentations/Investor Update Presentation Sep 2007.pdf


----------



## barney

Father Ted said:


> barney
> 
> a good starting place would be the Sept 2007 Adelphi presentation, see home page of the adi website - page 12
> 
> and I think you will find that there is "not much guess work" about this development.
> 
> ft





"Forgive me Father"   The "guess" comment was meant with all due respect to TCE .......... They know exactly what they're doing. Lets hope they are on the money, cause we need some results at this point to get the ball rolling .... Cheers.

fflintoff,  Thanks for the "google" link.  That is exactly what I was after. It puts the angle and position of the wells in perspective.  If we get a good strike at Kennedy, we would certainly be backing SL1 (or any other well they drill in close proximity on the same reservoir line) to produce as well.  Kennedy is obviously not the last string on the bow, but a result from it will generate some serious interest ............. 
Impatiently waiting patiently, like everybody else.


----------



## fflintoff

Oil Barrel 29 Oct 2007

"Empyrean Energy Gets Some Encouraging If Inconclusive News From Its Kennedy-1 Well On Its Sugarloaf Prospect In Texas 
The latest drilling report from London AIM-listed Empyrean energy concerns its Kennedy-1 exploration well on the Sugarloaf prospect in Texas, US. The well is drilling ahead at a measured depth of 13,481 feet. The planned measured depth of this well is 17,570 feet. 

Since its previous report casing was successfully run and cemented at a depth of 12,719 feet followed by the start of drilling the horizontal section within the target Austin Chalk upper zone. There are background gas levels broadly consistent with those found in shallower zones. 

The re-frac of the deepest of the three zones of gas shows, and log interpreted potential gas play in the Cretaceous age Austin Chalk formation, was undertaken, with all of the Frac protant injected into the formation as per the programme. The lack of significant hydrocarbon recovery and the flow pressures seen, to date indicate that this deepest zone of the Austin Chalk is unlikely to be commercially productive at this location. 

In other words, there looks as if there is gas in the shallower zones but we do not know how much at this point. Empyrean has assets in Germany but it is focused in the US, like other small independents from the UK and Australia, because the high prices available for gas and the good infrastructure make it worthwhile revisiting low risk discoveries which were not deemed worth exploiting by the companies which originally discovered them. The low cost nature of the assets means that even the most junior of companies can quickly build up a good cash flow business. 

Sugarloaf is important to Empyrean because it represents a potential step up from the modest developments the company has achieved on Project Margarita, also in Texas. You are talking about the difference between hundreds of thousand of cubic feet a day to possibly millions of cubic feet a day from individual wells. 

The Sugarloaf prospect covers 60 sq km in the prolific Gulf Coast Basin of Texas and lies just 6.6 km east of the producing Sugarkane gas-condensate field. Empyrean has a 6 per cent working interest in the Texas Crude Energy operated project which was first drilled in 2006 when Sugarloaf-1 found tight reservoir sands in the primary Cretaceous-aged Hosston formation. 

This was a disappointment but the compensation was that there was at least 92 feet of potential gas play in a shallower secondary target, the age Carbonates. So the shallower zones looked prospective if the deeper ones don’t. 

On the basis of past drilling Empyrean extended its interests. It has farmed into a 12 well programme (Kennedy-1 is the first well) over Sugarloaf Block A and Block B. Empyrean will earn a 7.5 per cent interest in Block A by paying 12.5 per cent of the pre-production costs. The first well here, a horizontal appraisal of a putative gas reservoir, encountered encouraging gas shows. 

Empyrean also has an 18 per cent working interest in Block B, where, as part of the programme, the Kennedy-1 well is taking place. It is early days but it is suggested there could be a multi-tcf gas target to be exploited. 

There is also movement on Project Margarita, the other Texas asset. A six well drilling programme has meant output of around 2 million cubic feet of gas a day and some 60 barrels a day of oil. Empyrean has 44 per cent of this acreage, and at current prices for both oil and gas there is good cash flow. 

But it was always agreed that if the shallow low cost/low risk wells came good, the partners would graduate to three deeper, high impact wells on Project Margarita. The first proposed prospect is a potential gas accumulation of between 15 and 48 billion cubic feet:"


----------



## maverick11

Can't wait until they get into zone 1!  This wait is tedious, but should be worth it.  Seems like 1H has been drilling ahead rather trouble free.

Evangelin, don't forget the people who's holdings are spread across multiple funds so don't register on the top 20   Lot's of people are 'onboard & waiting'


----------



## Evangeline

Oilbarrel refers to the jvp as an example of "low risk discoveries which were not deemed worth exploiting by the companies which originally discovered them." Are they referring to Conocophillips here in relation to the Sugarloaf Discovery?


----------



## sam76

Evangeline said:


> Oilbarrel refers to the jvp as an example of "low risk discoveries which were not deemed worth exploiting by the companies which originally discovered them." Are they referring to Conocophillips here in relation to the Sugarloaf Discovery?




Just taking a stab here, but they could be refering to vertical drilling technology versus horizontal drilling technology.  The jvp's are using the most up to date drills and methods available today.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> Oilbarrel refers to the jvp as an example of "low risk discoveries which were not deemed worth exploiting by the companies which originally discovered them." Are they referring to Conocophillips here in relation to the Sugarloaf Discovery?





my view is that they are refering to whom originally discovered the play.

i guess it gets down to how much you may know about it, when i look at the leases i see who would have originally looked at it, so perhaps TCEI did take up where the previous left off.. but what were the previous looking at is the question!!


----------



## fflintoff

CBO going public.

“Another succesful well and frac “ October 25 , 2007

“Pre IPO (Pre Initial Public Offering) 
We are assembling a 10 million share @ $1 per share Pre IPO for our Delaware registered Central Basin Oil corporation. Jason and I will add 5% of each previous field and 5% of each future field. So we will have immediate cash flow and many millions in reserve value added to the initial offering. 

We have begun interviewing investment bankers for a $100+ million dollar offering to be offered about 1 year from now with pink sheet or OTC trading. We estimate the offering to be $1.50 to $2 minimum per share in one year that should increase in value quickly as oil prices continue to increase and we continue to facilitate successful projects. This will create a future vehicle to allow investor liquidity to cash out if need be from Central Basin’s projects or to offer another liquid investment vehicle. 

Unfortunately, investing by stock does not allow immediate tax deductions as our individual field participation allows. It does allow needed liquidity. We will offer both investment type vehicles in the future after the stock complies with audits and registration requirements. 

As each project matures, we will hire a 3rd party reservoir engineer to determine the value of each field for each field value determination for the publicly traded company and individual working interest estate planning. 

We also have been adding some of the best drilling and completion experts in the industry that will be lured away if we cannot offer some stock options from time to time. We had not planned to grow this fast, but we have not ever assembled such a large inventory of drilling and completion equipment and experienced personnel before. I personally thought it would take a much longer period of time. The drilling equipment alone is worth almost $10 million. 

When we started the CBO journey, oil was $50 a barrel. It is already $80 a barrel and appears to be heading higher due to commodity value and the weakening of the dollar. I don’t see us changing of our trade balance practices anytime soon. 

The Bush family had three fields and they were able to run almost the whole family for president from that created wealth. We have more fields than that, so somebody in our group may be a presidential candidate down the road. Not Jason or me though. 

Drop me an email if you wish to participate in the Pre IPO and I will send you documents”

Charles Couch, Accounting & Exploration Mgr

http://www.cboil.net/

http://www.cboil.net/contact.asp


----------



## Evangeline

I'm a bit confused ... I've read what Couch had to say about S1.....and I know he got an award recently.......but what, if anything, does he actually have to do with the jvp?  Can anyone tell me (in brief).   Does this latest news about Couch have anything to do with ADI?


----------



## fflintoff

Couch is part of TCEI ´s private USA interests of 41.5% in SL.
This amount has been subsequently diluted to acconmmodate EME ´s increased interest via the 16 well programme. Couch ´s involvement post SL is uncertain. He may have clammed up or he might have been gagged. He only invests on a well by well basis so maybe he is not invested in Kennedy #1 nor in Kunde nor Baker but that is speculation at present.


----------



## Evangeline

Thanks for that fflintoff.  

I have wondered for a while exactly what the connection was, and how Couch knew what was going on with S1.  

Certainly AUT's most recent report ratifies what Couch said about the unusually high porosity in the chalks and gives one hope that the rest of his reportage may also be true, but yet to emerge......

This certainly is a gruelling time, but for holders who have hung in since 2006...must be even more so.


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> I'm a bit confused ... I've read what Couch had to say about S1.....and I know he got an award recently.......but what, if anything, does he actually have to do with the jvp? Can anyone tell me (in brief). Does this latest news about Couch have anything to do with ADI?





your confused??

i am struggling to understand the relevance of any of that post to anything?? wtf???

anyone get it?


----------



## fflintoff

Evangeline said:


> Thanks for that fflintoff.
> 
> I have wondered for a while exactly what the connection was, and how Couch knew what was going on with S1.
> 
> Certainly AUT's most recent report ratifies what Couch said about the unusually high porosity in the chalks and gives one hope that the rest of his reportage may also be true, but yet to emerge......
> 
> This certainly is a gruelling time, but for holders who have hung in since 2006...must be even more so.




Evangeline,
I am glad that you found the post useful. If EME announce a forward well programme it will be interesting to compare that programme to Couch ´s 100 wells in offsetting leases. Regards.


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> Evangeline,
> I am glad that you found the post useful. If EME announce a forward well programme it will be interesting to compare that programme to Couch ´s 100 wells in offsetting leases. Regards.





what eme program to what couch's 100 wells??

sorry flintoff, when did couch oil become operator on the leases???

what the heck are you talking about?  please clarify??

are you and eva adi holders???


----------



## fflintoff

This is from that numpty tRol on the UK forum. Sorry but I don ´t know what it means. Maybe more code & smoke & mirrors etc?

********************************************************

I see sheep with their ears pinned back... 

I see a dark stranger wearing a hat with dangling corks herding the sheep...

I see a rabid dog following in his wake, biting all those who dare to think for themselves....

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=12461310


----------



## barney

fflintoff said:


> This is from that numpty tRol on the UK forum. Sorry but I don´t know what it means. Maybe more code & smoke & mirrors etc?
> 
> ********************************************************
> 
> I see sheep with their ears pinned back...
> 
> I see a dark stranger wearing a hat with dangling corks herding the sheep...
> 
> I see a rabid dog following in his wake, biting all those who dare to think for themselves....
> 
> http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=12461310




Mmmm .............. ADI thread is turning into a poetry thread (where's 2020 Hindsight when you need him)

I don't know Mr tRol at all, but I guess he showed "some" decency by dressing up an insult as poetry ................ 

I assume you wouldn't give much creedence to this gentleman Agent?


----------



## Agentm

barney said:


> Mmmm .............. ADI thread is turning into a poetry thread (where's 2020 Hindsight when you need him)
> 
> I don't know Mr tRol at all, but I guess he showed "some" decency by dressing up an insult as poetry ................
> 
> I assume you wouldn't give much creedence to this gentleman Agent?





hey barney..

there is a tendancy for people to not talk about the share in the uk and go after anyone who does in a personal way, its a crew of shorters and mm's whom work a bunch of stocks hard,, i have them on ignore,, we have a few from there on this thread at the moment, they are not investors nor interested in discussing the current events of the adi or the current drills, as you can see, if you id them and ask them the relevance of their posts, they come back with personal insults.


----------



## Evangeline

I just wanted to know what Couch's relationship to the jvp was......and how he came into possession of the knowledge to make the claims he did regarding the drilling process in 2006 and S1, which is the well which has just tested Zone 3.

I am heartened by the fact that AUT's annual report backs up Couch's description of the porosity of the chalks being high 6-12%....it gives higher credibility to his claim about the productivity of the austin chalks.


----------



## Evangeline

I've got a feeling we won't get news till later in the week .... maybe not even till Friday, but that it will be good news....just a feeling though


----------



## mfunksta

Just a feeling.... Here 'tis.

Kennedy #1H Well
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 30 October the Kennedy-1
exploration well had reached a measured depth of 14,664 feet (4,469 metres). The
planned measured depth of this well is 17,570 feet.
Drilling progress during the week was affected by the need to replace parts of the
bottom hole assembly and to re-log the well for correlation and steering purposes. Drilling
is expected to re-commence shortly.
Background gas levels whilst drilling in the Austin Chalk upper target zone have
increased from our last report and are mostly in the range of 40 to 300 units. The
commercial significance of the gas background readings whilst encouraging will not be
known until testing operations are completed.
Sugarloaf-1 Well
Since our last report flow test operations of the lower most Austin Chalk interval were
completed and current operations are to prepare the well bore for the acquisition of
post frac logs. The forward program and timing in relation to testing the other remaining
Austin Chalk zones in this well will be made pending a full assessment of the logs and flow
test results.
Adelphi, through its wholly owned US subsidiary Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc., has a 20%
interest in the Sugarloaf Project which includes the Sugarloaf-1 and Kennedy #1H wells.


----------



## Agentm

*Kennedy #1H Well *
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 30 October the Kennedy-1 exploration well had reached a measured depth of 14,664 feet (4,469 metres). The planned measured depth of this well is 17,570 feet. 
Drilling progress during the week was affected by the need to replace parts of the bottom hole assembly and to re-log the well for correlation and steering purposes. Drilling is expected to re-commence shortly. 
Background gas levels whilst drilling in the Austin Chalk upper target zone have increased from our last report and are mostly in the range of *40 to 300 units.*[/COLOR] *The commercial significance of the gas background readings whilst encouraging* will not be known until testing operations are completed. 
*Sugarloaf-1 Well *
Since our last report flow test operations of the lower most Austin Chalk interval were completed and current operations are to prepare the well bore for the acquisition of post frac logs. The forward program and timing in relation to testing the other remaining Austin Chalk zones in this well will be made pending a full assessment of the logs and flow test results. 
Adelphi, through its wholly owned US subsidiary Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc., has a 20% interest in the Sugarloaf Project which includes the Sugarloaf-1 and Kennedy #1H wells. 


usual sanitised report.. as conocphillips and tcei requie it. just say enough to get away it..

looking good imho, very good.. this well is completely different to the kunde well, and the overpressurused chalks are well under control with the oil based mud.. but i imagine the usual punters wont get it and sell out.. 

all imho and dyor


----------



## Evangeline

Well, wrong as usual...lol...but at least the progress is regarded as encouraging...I think it is more positive than last week.  Increasing gas levels and now we are 40% of the way in.  Another 3 weeks to go at this rate and then testing ....


----------



## fflintoff

barney said:


> Mmmm .............. ADI thread is turning into a poetry thread (where's 2020 Hindsight when you need him)
> 
> I don't know Mr tRol at all, but I guess he showed "some" decency by dressing up an insult as poetry ................
> 
> I assume you wouldn't give much creedence to this gentleman Agent?




Thanks for your reply. The latest that we have from EME is as follows:-

"The TCEI JV A-1 well is being prepared for testing NOW and eme will announce when they get conformation from the operator of a test start - but it appears not long away.

EME currently has enough funds in place for all committed wells and operations right now.

Hope this answers a couple of points !!!."

So we could get a RNS from EME shortly on the start of testing at Kunde 3?


----------



## Agentm

TCEi got another 25 leases which have come through my datbase in the last week

the map i am posting is the locations where all the TCEI leases are, i dont have atascosia, and each pink dot has many many leases attached

it relects the maps that ADI and AUT gave out recently on sugarkane

i gather the recent announcements by ADI reflect the ongoing need to keep a very bearish sentiment on the progress of the well as they did throughout.

IMHO the word "encouraging" has a significant reason to be used in the announcement. 

i am equally encouraged by:

Conocophillips drilling 2 horizontals

Conocophillips drilling afurther directional/horizontal, 

TCEI drilling a horizontal in the austin chalks sugarkane. 

its beyond reasoning to believe all these wells are being drilled without knowing or understanding anything about the probable outcomes! No one drills that many horizontals on a guess..


----------



## tarzanhey

morning all

Empyrean Energy Drilling Report




 RNS Number:7989G
Empyrean Energy PLC
01 November 2007


1st November 2007

                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

   * TCEI JV Block A # 1 well being prepared for testing to commence
   * TCEI JV Block A # 2 well reaches total depth
   * Gas shows (# 2) correlate with the shows seen in the Sugarloaf-1
            well on Block B
Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas company with exploration and production 
assets in Germany and USA today announces the following regarding Sugarloaf 
Block A in Texas:


TCEI JV Block A-1 Well   
----------------------
The operator of Block A is preparing the TCEI JV Block A-1 well for fracture
stimulation and testing.

As previously reported, this well encountered gas shows and gas flares during
drilling - including a 600 foot zone with a constant gas flare.

A further update will be provided when the exact timing for this testing becomes
clear.

TCEI JV Block A-2 Well
----------------------
Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A #2
well has reached a total depth of 12,032 feet and production casing has been
run.

The vertical well encountered gas shows that correlate with the gas shows seen
in the Sugarloaf-1 well on Block B.

It is understood that this well will be used to monitor the testing of the TCEI
JV Block A-1 horizontal well and then subsequently tested.

Further updates will be provided as the timing for testing operations is
confirmed.

Proposed TCEI JV Block A-3 Well
-------------------------------
Empyrean has agreed to participate in the drilling of a further well on Block A,
the TCEI JV Block A-3 well. This well will be part of the recently announced 16
well program and as with the previous two wells on this Block, Empyrean will
have a 7.5% working interest in this well. The well will be a horizontal well
targeting the shallow zone that correlates to the production from the discovery
well nearby.

Empyrean director, Tom Kelly commented "This third well following the Block A
operator's discovery well earlier this year is a clear indication that the
operator has a high degree of confidence in the shallow zone that they have
production from. We look forward to the results from this well and eagerly await
testing to commence on the previous two wells".

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


For further information:

Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 / +44 (0) 7791 892 509

Rod Venables / Cecil Jordaan
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746




                      This information is provided by RNS
            The company news service from the London Stock Exchange


----------



## Agentm

"This third well following the Block A operator's discovery well earlier this year is a clear indication that the operator has a high degree of confidence in the shallow zone that they have production from. We look forward to the results from this well and eagerly await testing to commence on the previous two wells".


i totally agree, Conocophillips TCEI have done a brilliant job so far, and they have an extremely high degree of confidence..

imho eme will have two very nice wells producing from the sugarkane in a matter of weeks.. and by end dec will have baker and kennedy 1h as well.. thats 4!! 

That kennedy 1H well is looking very encouraging

Kennedy 1H is getting nearer to its completion, forward well program must be just around the corner..

looking good imho


----------



## chance fate

re. the gas shows i'm encouraged.. a fact is a fact... if it was just gas liberated whilst drilling the shows would have died away.... the fact that they are conitnuing to remain at good levels is good news - it shows there is connectivity into the reservoir (are they underbalanced drilling?)...  i'm now happy to hold to the end and wait for a good well test.


----------



## Agentm

underbalanced?? i think they want to keep the BOP in good shape!

IMHO they will be overbalanced big time. the well needs to make it in reasonable time, kunde 3 would have been drilled underbalanced imho, but not this one..

EME made a fine point, that conocphillips appears to be very confident to drill all these horizontals, in a matter of weeks we will know what the chalks can produce from a  horizontal. its what i was saying yesterday..

the excitement builds and we remain encouraged


----------



## Evangeline

Which well is Tom referring to here?

""This third well following the Block A
operator's discovery well earlier this year is a clear indication that the
operator has a high degree of confidence in the shallow zone that they have
production from. We look forward to the results from this well and eagerly await
testing to commence on the previous two wells".


1) The discovery well is S1, currently just finished testing zone 3, I gather

2) 'This third well' is Kunde ? How far is it from Kennedy?


Much thanks
Eva


----------



## tarzanhey

Evangeline said:


> Which well is Tom referring to here?
> 
> ""This third well following the Block A
> operator's discovery well earlier this year is a clear indication that the
> operator has a high degree of confidence in the shallow zone that they have
> production from. We look forward to the results from this well and eagerly await
> testing to commence on the previous two wells".
> 
> 
> 1) The discovery well is S1, currently just finished testing zone 3, I gather
> 
> 2) 'This third well' is Kunde ? How far is it from Kennedy?
> 
> 
> Much thanks
> Eva




Eva - I think it is the BAKER well. or perhaps mumbo jumbo3?

All bodes very well for Kennedy.

Tarz


----------



## Agentm

if you ask me it means the Kunde 1 well.  its producing on the vertical from the sugarkane (zone 1).

SL1 has confirmed the Sugarkane (zone 1) on the wirelines, but only tested the bottom zone so far (zone 3). 

i think whats confusing is that the discovery well, kunde 1, was drilled 2 years ago, and last year in feb after many months of testing, they permitted it to be a production well.. eme is not contractually able to name wells, you fall into a trap of making things very clouded if you slip up..

Block A really only has  one discovery well so far, as the kunde 2 vertical was shut in.. but in reality they have kunde 3 and kunde 2 ready to produce, just waiting for a permit approval i guess on kunde 2..


this baker well is going ahead really well, if i look at the data i have and comparing it to the other wells IMHO its at about the 6100 feet region (guessing). by the end of next week it should be turning.   


come the end of this month 2 horizontals and the original vertical well will be producing from the suagrkane,, by the end of next month we could have kennedy 1h and baker also..  

i remain encouraged!!


----------



## Evangeline

Noticed over on hc someone reckons we won't get any real news till next year....I hope not....any thoughts guys?

Btw thanks for the explanations re the eme well...it is very confusing.


----------



## Agentm

ADELPHI MANAGEMENT CHANGES​ 
1. Appointment of Exploration Manager​ 
ADELPHI MANAGEMENT CHANGES​ 
1. Appointment of Exploration Manager Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) is pleased to advise that Mr William (“Bill”) Ashby has joined the Company as Exploration Manager. Bill is a geophysicist with over 23 years of professional experience in the oil and gas industry in Australia, SE Asia as well as North and South America. During his career he has held senior exploration and management positions in a number of ompanies including Ampolex/Mobil, Conoco-Phillips and of late with Sun Resources NL where he held the position of Managing Director.
In his position as Director Exploration – Australia Business Unit with Conoco-Phillips, his team was responsible for the significant Caldita gas discovery in the Bonaparte Basin. More recently, he was responsible for managing and growing Sun Resources’ international exploration and production portfolio, with a major emphasis on the USA and SE Asia.
Bill’s experience and well developed contacts in these regions will provide invaluable and immediate synergies with respect to Adelphi’s existing asset portfolio and new venture activities.​ 
2. Managing Director/Chairman Positions​ 
Concurrent with the above appointment of Bill Ashby, the Board has restructured Adelphi’s existing management team as follows:​ 
• Mr Chris Hodge has been appointed as Managing Director of Adelphi. Chris has been an Executive Director of Adelphi since April 2005 and has been responsible for building and managing the Company’s exploration portfolio.​ 
• Mr Alex Forcke who has undertaken the combined roles of Chairman and Managing Director since the inception of Adelphi in January 2005, will remain as Adelphi’s Chairman but will relinquish his full time executive role with the Company to pursue personal business interests. He will continue to provide ongoing support to the management team to ensure an efficient and smooth transition.
Following these changes, Adelphi’s Board positions will now consist of:
Chris Hodge, Managing Director Eric Streitberg, Non-Executive Director​Alex Forcke, Chairman Graham Riley, Non-Executive Director


----------



## nioka

Evangeline said:


> Noticed over on hc someone reckons we won't get any real news till next year....I hope not....any thoughts guys?
> 
> Btw thanks for the explanations re the eme well...it is very confusing.




Maybe they are right. We haven't had much in the way of news for the past year so another month or two is not a big deal. Remember it is the groundhog day stock. By January though I'll be making a decision as to whether or not I continue with ADI and AUT. Together they are 25% of my portfolio and this year has not been good.


----------



## fflintoff

Seems to be Baker?

RNS Number:0012H
Empyrean Energy PLC
05 November 2007


05 November 2007

                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

   • TCEI JV Block A # 3 well spuds

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas company with exploration and production
assets in Germany and USA today announces the following regarding Sugarloaf
Block A in Texas:

TCEI JV Block A-3 Well

Empyrean has been advised that the TCEI JV Block A-3 well has commenced
drilling. The latest report from the operator advised that drilling had reached
a depth of 6236 feet and the operator was preparing to run 9 5/8' casing before
drilling ahead towards the target zone. The TCEI JV Block A-3 well is planned to
be drilled to a total measured depth of 14,000 feet. The well is targeting a
zone that correlates to a producing zone in a nearby well operated by the Block
A operator and is planned to have a horizontal completion.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


For further information:

Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 / +44 (0) 7791 892 509

Rod Venables / Cecil Jordaan
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746


----------



## fflintoff

Oil and Gas Division
Oil and Gas Proration Schedule Listed by Purchaser
Purchasers names beginning with the letter C (continued)
November 2007


02  SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS)           FLD NO. 86950500 NO
     BURLINGTON RESOURCES 225297 KUNDE              6540     6540     6540       0
                             FIELD TOTAL MONTHLY DELIVERABILITY       6540


http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisions/og/purchasers/c-1.html


----------



## Agentm

SUGARLOAF PROJECT UPDATE​Kennedy #1H 
Eureka advises that at 6am Texas time on 6 November the Kennedy-1 exploration well was pulling out of hole at a depth of 15,940 feet (4,860 metres) to replace the measure while drilling tool. The planned measured depth of this well is 17,570 feet. 
Background gas levels whilst drilling in the Austin Chalk upper target zone remain in the range of 40 to 300 units; the commercial significance of which will not be known until testing operations are completed. 
Sugarloaf-1 Well 
The well bore continues to be prepared for the acquisition of post frac logs. The forward program and timing in relation to testing the other remaining Austin Chalk zones in this well will be made pending a full assessment of the logs and flow test results. 


i cant seem to master this cut and paste, i hope it goes on this time,, i find i try 3 times or more sometimes to edit these things, particularily when it goes bold... cant seem to negate it..


back to the topic..

the announcement doesnt give anything away..


----------



## Lucky_Country

This is really dragging on now being drip feed !
Zone 2 fracing surely they had a plan in place before they even fraced Z3 just always seems too be some kind of spin so we dont get the full story very frustrating !


----------



## gdaf

regarding the K1H well, there's a little over 1000 ft to go. Would you say that with levels of 300 units, this isn't likely to be commerical?


----------



## tarzanhey

AGENTM

i have downloaded a fre pdf to word doc converter.

seems to work okay and you can post all one size.

(have not tried it on here though ;-)

download at your own risk.

http://www.download3k.com/Business-...html-word.com-Easy-PDF-to-Word-Converter.html

Download Easy PDF to Word Converter 2.0.3


----------



## Agentm

i think they are testing zone 3 as long as they need to.

Once its completed they will decide on other zones.  the jvp's are reporting up to 300 units background gas..  mud weights are unknown so its not able to be called uncommercial, the jvp's have announced the well as encouraging.. its taking forever to finish just as kennedy 1 H was.  

all looks fine to me.


----------



## godzillaismad

Agentm, I don't mean to pour cold water on you, but it seems this stock has no real news on the horizon... I am getting a little impatient with it, sp wise this stock has been in a downtrend for a while, and by the look of things, it does not looked like it will turn around quickly. Let's hope I'm wrong, though.....


----------



## fflintoff

Pioneer 3rd Qtr 

Nov 6 ,2007

Edwards Trend

Production increased 63% vs. Q3 2006 and 31% vs. 9 months 2006Expected to grow >30% in 2007 and ~25% in 2008Two new fields discovered in Q3 bringing total in the expansion area to eightExpect to drill ~35 wells in 2007 (primarily development wells)–Multiple isolation packer fractechnology increasing average EUR of ~3.5 BCF by 1.0 -1.5 BCF at additional cost of ~$1 MM per wellProppantfracsof existing horizontal wells at Pawnee continuing to show success –EURsincreased by average 1.0 –1.5 BCF per wellProgressing >900 sq mi 3-D seismic surveys and infrastructure expansion (treating and pipelines)~300 M gross acresMMCFEPD

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/90/909/90959/items/268398/2007_11_06ThirdQtrEarnings.pdf


----------



## Agentm

i have been looking hard at the other chalk wells in the area, there are 2 others the jvp have not mentioned. its interesting discussion with the geologists, as the wells themselves show the same traits that the kunde well did, but its up for debate if they were in the sugarkane or on the other side of the fashing fault.

for me its confirmation that in regions further out, and possibly outside the zone (by a ultra narrow margin), we have evidence of a healthy verticals producing from the chalks.  so these high marix porosity rocks have got some form nearby. which is encouraging


----------



## Ken

This has to be the most talked about stock on the asx.

The longest thread in the history of aussie stock forums.

We are all here to make money.

Whats the return on investment over the last 6 months? Lots still holding for the long term. 3 years plus???

The returns generally happen when few people understand a stock, for example ELK petroleum has gone from 20 cents to 80 cents in less than a 2 months.


ADI is well known among day traders, and investment circles now, so I wonder how that is having an effect on the shareprice.

It has bounced off 50 cents a couple of times.

The pay day on ADI would want to be good for you AgentM and I hope it is. You have put lots of effort into your research.


More than most I would think.

Still holding?


----------



## nioka

Ken said:


> This has to be the most talked about stock on the asx.
> 
> The longest thread in the history of aussie stock forums.
> 
> We are all here to make money.
> 
> Whats the return on investment over the last 6 months? Lots still holding for the long term. 3 years plus???
> 
> The returns generally happen when few people understand a stock, for example ELK petroleum has gone from 20 cents to 80 cents in less than a 2 months.
> 
> 
> ADI is well known among day traders, and investment circles now, so I wonder how that is having an effect on the shareprice.
> 
> It has bounced off 50 cents a couple of times.
> 
> The pay day on ADI would want to be good for you AgentM and I hope it is. You have put lots of effort into your research.
> 
> 
> More than most I would think.
> 
> Still holding?




 Day traders have long gone from ADI. Holders are waiting for a final result from Sugarloaf. That's my opinion anyway. Some are bound to be losing patience and falling off and I've got to admit I'm close to being one of them. I,ve made a bit out of it along the way and now mainly hold AUT with the same story. New Year will see my patience end one way or the other.


----------



## Agentm

still holding, and i think many who get it are accumulating, theres a lot happening near by that conocphillips have done to suggest this isnt a pipe dream..  more the real deal.. wait for kunde 3 results to giude you to the potential.. all good imho


----------



## Agentm

ken, i gather you have not realised something on this jvp.

normally a well is completed and tested in a matter of months. the reasons for the delays were primarily for conocophillips to land grab. so the jvp has been at the mercy of this operation. its been frustrating for many. i have continued to research as it became obvious the play was not 150 bcf, and Conocophillips wouldnt be in a small play like that..

i think all holders are feeling the pain in this investment. and as ADI can say little until the formation is tested, we have to endure the wait. its obviously causing a lot of impatient to transfer their wealth to the patient.  

i see a fine future on this sugarkane, as the 100 mill so far easily spent on the project is certainly been no skin off conocphillips nose..  All the ADI management can say is that the background gas readings are encouraging, there are wells inside to suagrkane zone and outside that have produced for many years on the vertical, I would say the fact conocphillips are putting in 2 horizontals is enough to convince me they have sufficient confidence in exploring the formation. 

We are in a strange position, TCEI has a screenout in zone 3, and they are checking to see if the secnd frac was successful..  TCEI has yet to test the sugarkane, yet a horizontal is practically completed there.

I agree theres been no joy in this share at all this year. But in a matter of a very short time, we are assured the kennedy well will be tested.. 

I understand theres lots of scepticism, and many have it, but that doesnt match the research, nor the evidence i find.

EME have recently announced kunde 2 as a vertical behaved just as SL1 did.  so the couch experience of mud flowing back up the well is evident in both zones. I feel very optimistic that the sugarkane story of >3 tcf and 500mmbbls is showing good signs, i hope all investors make some great rewards.

in terms of returns?  i have seen these shares listed in the  10 bagger newsletter. so 12 months of waithing for a 10 bagger, i know its a little long, but hey!! why jump now when wells are about to be tested??

the wells are all being completed roughly at the same time ken, so good news may be very very close.


----------



## fflintoff

Interesting thought from q44 on ADVFN:-

"About K2: Perhaps they only had permission to drill this as a monitoring well and so it was faily close to the other well(s)and closer than permits allowed between potential producers. Once drilled they came across a pot load of oil and are now trying to apply to turn it into a producer after initial frac monitoring. Just a thought off the top."
q44


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> Interesting thought from q44 on ADVFN:-
> 
> "About K2: Perhaps they only had permission to drill this as a monitoring well and so it was faily close to the other well(s)and closer than permits allowed between potential producers. Once drilled they came across a pot load of oil and are now trying to apply to turn it into a producer after initial frac monitoring. Just a thought off the top."
> q44





i was thinking the same thoughts, its a match as far as i am concerned. that eme share looks very very good value, if i had any faith in the AIM i would back that share anyday, but with those crews working it, and making threats of violence to tarz,  i am sorry to say the market there has too much garbage going on and not enough regulation..

but on topic, the quatro statement rings very true imho. i was going to post it myself on here..


----------



## fflintoff

Oil and Gas Division
Oil and Gas Proration Schedule Listed by Gatherer
Gatherers names beginning with the letter R
October 2007

SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS)
                                 BURLINGTON  225297 KUNDE       6758 ( MCF)          


http://209.85.129.104/search?q=cach.../r.html+sugarkane+&+kunde&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=17



Oil and Gas Division
Oil and Gas Proration Schedule Listed by Gatherer
Gatherers names beginning with the letter R
November 2007

02  SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS)
                                 BURLINGTON  225297 KUNDE        6540 ( MCF )


http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/divisions/og/gatherers/r.html


----------



## Agentm

this kennedy well would have to be close to completion now in terms of drilling, i gather the next good news is the announcement of puting in production casing.


----------



## mpls

Agentm,

I would've thought, going at the rate they've gone at, it going to be another 7-10 days to TD. Then 5 days to log. Has a decision to put in production casing already been made? How do you know? 

Just curious.


Any well news on K2 and K3? Baker going well?


----------



## Agentm

mpls said:


> Agentm,
> 
> I would've thought, going at the rate they've gone at, it going to be another 7-10 days to TD. Then 5 days to log. Has a decision to put in production casing already been made? How do you know?
> 
> Just curious.
> 
> 
> Any well news on K2 and K3? Baker going well?




I think the major issue with kennedy has been the drill bit,   the thing has spent more time giong in and  out of the well than on the fromation. I was given the impression that the matter was sorted last week and they would be finishing the well off in quicker fashion, so based on the 10 days to drill 5000 feet, i gave the assumption that the drilling would be completed.

re the logging?  i was under the impression the well was logged as they went, but maybe there is more to come,  if thats the case then your correct, it could be a while before they decide on production casing and frac.

IMHo the encouraging elevated background regions would be their targets, and i would assume they may be very interested in completing this well. this well has different mud to the kunde 3 well.. 

I think the news on kunde 3 so far has been outstanding, i still see the kune 2 well permit is awaiting approval and i am convinced its the cause of the delays of the kunde 3 frac. i understand K3 can be fraced right now, but somehow the kunde 2 well permit seems to be there in my view its for a good reason, and if they intend to produce from zone 1 as well, i am assuming it may form part of the testing process of the formation? 

if they are seeking to produce from K2 it says to me theres some good reason to be upbeat on the kunde wells in any case, as kunde 2 appears to be vertical perhaps afterall

regarding baker,, my view is based on the info i have on the spud dates, and  i am of the belief the well has to be in the chalks.. 

the coming weeks looks very busy IMHO.. plenty of updates and news to come on austin chalks formation ability to produce on the horizontal, and 
as these wells are nearing completion, the jvp's must have to make decisions on the way forward.. so plenty of news to come in the near term imho


----------



## maverick11

crikey guys, the chart is not looking good lately.  What are other peoples thoughts?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well there seems too be a battle looming for the control of ARQ.
Wonder wether this has anything too do with  ADI or what implications it may have too ADI.
Clive Palmer is the owner of ARH iron ore now want ARC umm interesting any thoughts ?


----------



## fflintoff

Agentm said:


> I think the major issue with kennedy has been the drill bit,   the thing has spent more time giong in and  out of the well than on the fromation. I was given the impression that the matter was sorted last week and they would be finishing the well off in quicker fashion, so based on the 10 days to drill 5000 feet, i gave the assumption that the drilling would be completed.
> 
> re the logging?  i was under the impression the well was logged as they went, but maybe there is more to come,  if thats the case then your correct, it could be a while before they decide on production casing and frac.
> 
> IMHo the encouraging elevated background regions would be their targets, and i would assume they may be very interested in completing this well. this well has different mud to the kunde 3 well..
> 
> I think the news on kunde 3 so far has been outstanding, i still see the kune 2 well permit is awaiting approval and i am convinced its the cause of the delays of the kunde 3 frac. i understand K3 can be fraced right now, but somehow the kunde 2 well permit seems to be there in my view its for a good reason, and if they intend to produce from zone 1 as well, i am assuming it may form part of the testing process of the formation?
> 
> if they are seeking to produce from K2 it says to me theres some good reason to be upbeat on the kunde wells in any case, as kunde 2 appears to be vertical perhaps afterall
> 
> regarding baker,, my view is based on the info i have on the spud dates, and  i am of the belief the well has to be in the chalks..
> 
> the coming weeks looks very busy IMHO.. plenty of updates and news to come on austin chalks formation ability to produce on the horizontal, and
> as these wells are nearing completion, the jvp's must have to make decisions on the way forward.. so plenty of news to come in the near term imho




My understanding is that they log as they drill so the next step is the production casing as per the schematic:-

“10 days to drill horizontal section & then run 4  ½" casing”

(12.5 ppg oil based mud)

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...ublicQuery=Y&name=KENNEDY&univDocNo=484723106


----------



## cicak_kupang

ADI's down, the whole market is down over the last 2 ish weeks.  I feel the price had dropped as there are people who wanted to see alot more happenng in the weekly announcements.  Zone 3 didnt flow, big deal, we still have an estimated 600 bcf in zone one wating to be tested.
Remember the upbeat comments in the JVP's annual reports a few weeks ago.........things like " ....the sugarloaf austin chalk has the potential to be a companymaker for ADI..."  and the comments similar to...near term upside....major market re-evaluation....from the other JVP's????

Still fresh in moi mind, and i aint goin' no where......
'


----------



## Agentm

hey cicak..

Sugarkane is in my opinion the real deal. and the 20,000 acreas are imho going to be a company maker. 

Its now too easy to say the wells are over and the sugarkane is no good, as the censure orders are making it hard for the jvp's to report..

I am happy to hold and remain like you..  i aint going nowhere either!!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Seems like a no news gag is in place and impatient sellers are falling into the trap!
It may take a while longer too get some positive news confirmed and could see a long lead up time too get the full story but I'll hang around for the rewards.


----------



## Agentm

so i gather we have a koh samui party going anyways??

IMHO this JVP is about to go pretty crazy, if this kennedy well is ever completed then  we can expect some nice rewards for the long wait.

lets see what the next updates bring, its going to be either of two things, they are going to test this horizontal or they are not!!


IMHO this horizontal has been less than brilliant in the drill constantly being the problem, but if they got some action in the chalks, and i think those "encouraging" remarks were indications of that, then the jvp has all the ingredients for a pretty good well..

lets get the party started and start announcing something!! these years of waiting is driving me nuts!! 

btw,, good luck if you hung around and held this share and didnt sell to to trojan and his mates!!

anyone going to the agm??


----------



## Gspot

I didn't realize how much I had invested in this play. Topping up here and there for a year now, and......CRIKEY!  
This is becoming a major stress, with the sp drifting downwards, I'm finding it harder to believe in.  With all the players involved, any good news would leak somewhere in the chain, or more stock being bought at these levels.
I suppose just a little too quiet for my liking? Hopefully I totally wrong??????


----------



## rolisatosser

Hi Roger

I know you look into this message board sometimes.  Did you notice the villa fan who posts here.  That makes two villa fan adi holders.  Makes me want to get out!

Won't be long now Rog, this rocket will make November 5th look like a fading candle.


----------



## Agentm

in terms of what i think, i think conocophillips has got themselves some nice wells there in liveoak..

in terms of what i think we have in karnes county..  equality comes to mind immediately.

as far as what the definition of "encouraging" is..  its got to be imho the most under rated  term ever used to describe a well... and can be used as long as the formation is not tested. i have a feeling they wont be using the encouraging term soon, after the frac that is..

and as far as the jvp goes. i think about what is being said at advfn.. its sure looking very exciting

those elephants are starting to move!!


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> those elephants are starting to move!!



Must be minature elephants.

Looks to be hitting a little bit of a support line, but could be classed as descending.

Any particular reason for the poor performance?


----------



## stereo21

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Kennedy #1H Well
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that the Kennedy-1 exploration well has reached Total Depth of 16,750 feet Measured Depth and is running logs prior to casing for completion and testing. Total depth was called some 820 feet short of the original proposed measured depth of 17,570 feet for operational convenience.
Background gas levels whilst drilling in the Austin Chalk upper target zone remain in the range of 40 to 300 units; the commercial significance of which will not be known until testing operations are completed.
Sugarloaf-1 Well
Post fracture stimulation logs have now been run and are being analysed. The lowermost Austin Chalk interval that was previously fracture stimulated has been put back on flow test and on 11 November commenced flowing gas at a rate of 387,000 cubic feet per day with approximately 335 barrels of water (mostly frac fluids) per day. As at report time on 13 November, the well had declined to 180,000 cubic feet per day with minor quantities of water. Over the final 5 hours of the report period, 39 barrels of condensate had been produced. The significance of these flows will not be known until the testing of the zone has been completed and analysed.
Adelphi, through its wholly owned US subsidiary Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc., has a 20% interest in the Sugarloaf Project which includes the Sugarloaf-1 and Kennedy #1H wells.
For further information please contact Chris Hodge on 08 9480 1300 or info@adelphienergy.com.au.


----------



## Agentm

nice news dont you think guys??

still think the party is over anyone???

time to get very excited here.. the elephants are arriving!!


kenna.. you cant apply charts to O&G explorers!! its about this mate nothing more and nothing less

Sugarkane area potential​>3TCF + 500mmbbls


----------



## stereo21

Can anyone with knowledge of the O&G industry shed some light on these results???   good / bad / too early to tell....


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> kenna.. you cant apply charts to O&G explorers!! its about this mate nothing more and nothing less



 LOL. You can apply them to ANYTHING, AM. All the available information is in there. Don't want to create a FA v TA argument, but for those that have some understanding of it, the chart for this stock is just more information to consider. Good luck! I hope the elephant comes soon!


----------



## maverick11

Sounds like the frac fluids have been recovered and she is flowing off the lower zone 3 which was previously written off.  Approx 195 bbl per day @ $100bbl = $19,500/day for condensate.  And this is just on the vertical!  Say 400% for a horizontal and we're talking around $USD 80k per day on condensate.


----------



## Agentm

hey kennas..  its really been a long haul waiting for this news,  but to see zone 3 flow means its possible to see the reserves "Sugarkane area potential
>3TCF + 500mmbbls" go way higer.

those figures are only foe zone 1.

we now have sl1 producing from zone 3, and kunde 2 is also looking at zone 2 and 3!!

all brilliant news


----------



## Broadside

we have just picked up a zone which was previously written off, across the whole 20,000 acres that is a whole lot of condensate and gas...great news, finally.


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> hey kennas..  its really been a long haul waiting for this news,  but to see zone 3 flow means its possible to see the reserves "Sugarkane area potential
> >3TCF + 500mmbbls" go way higer.
> 
> those figures are only foe zone 1.
> 
> we now have sl1 producing from zone 3, and kunde 2 is also looking at zone 2 and 3!!
> 
> all brilliant news



I don't want to come on here being too negative and being accused of 'downramping' but anyway.......

If it's going so great, and has so much potential, why is it around about 12 month lows? 

It's because CSG doesn't follow normal TA principles? Actually it is. Check the support line at 50 cents. Classic TA. If it breaks there, then support is gone in theory.....

I hope your FA is spot on, support holds, and it breaks up through serious resistance at 75 cents. Long way to go, but your elephant might take it there....All the best.


----------



## HOMER J

Agree, finally some good news. Zone 3 looked to be over before this. Cant wait until they fracture/test the top zone....


----------



## Lucky_Country

Z3 was written of then all of a sudden its flowing this jv are just so hard too read with there plans its a brave man too write anything off at this point in time.
If Z3 is written off then flows whats the potential for K1 "encouraging" they are a cagey bunch !


----------



## Agentm

Broadside said:


> we have just picked up a zone which was previously written off, across the whole 20,000 acres that is a whole lot of condensate and gas...great news, finally.





195 bopd was reported..  39 over 5 hours!!!  thats only the condensate.. 

thats way better than kunde 1... and we are only vertical.  the chalks are not supposed to be commercial on a vertical well normally.. as they say, these chalks are overpressurised and unique, so on a normal frac the wells going good,, having two zones is great news..


----------



## Agentm

looks like only a few adi investors left.. i think the long delays must have shaken them all out,  that leaves the trojan crowd and a small handful left!! 

the upside of zone 3 to the reserves potential is going to be very interesting to me, i think TCEI and CP will start to look at multi lateral horizontrals perhaps if they have 2 or 3 zones producing. the sorts of returns those wells can give on these chalks will be mind blowing. 

All eyes on zone 3 now, and with kunde 2 & 3 about to frac, we will have some idea of how good kennedy will produce. they couldnt finish the well, which says theres a lot of pressure down there to me preventing the completion, and they are satisified and will line it and frac it..  this is very good news indeed..

good luck to the small handful that lasted and held..


----------



## maverick11

I topped up at rock bottom prices this morning.  Looks like it's going to take a little more to kick this one off.  Interested to find out what occured to suddenly allow flow and recovery of the frac fluids in zone 3...


----------



## Agentm

The way i see it, there are a lot of wells out there, and mostly close to completion side of things.

things have to happen, so anyday now more news will flow..

all news is positive, to have movable hydrocarbons on our acreage is extremely encouraging.

lookin forward to each day now as once the Sl1 well brings back all the fluids it may flow a lot better than its current rate, its being reported minute by minute now, so there is plenty of reasons to be very optimistic on zone 3 and also zone 2!!

how big is this thing going to get??  imho its got a long way to go yet..


----------



## billhill

Just thought i would give a technical input for this stock from my current knowledge. (have only been studying  T/A for a year so am not an expert).

So here is what i see on the adi chart. From a volume spread analysis perspective the 18th and the 24th of october stand out to me in that their volumes were much greater then average. Both these days feature a large spread initially pushing down but then closing on the highs. This shows that buyers have come in strongly to snap up all the supply. My opinion is this is likely to be insiders or smart money due to the excessive volume. This would be considered a positive for the stock. 

The second point i notice is the drying up of volume as stock price aproaches the resistance level around 50c on the 9th and 12th. This shows a lack of supply which is also a positive for the stock.

IMO what these features show is an accumulation of the stock by bigger players. For them to do this they must be confident in the prospects of the company.


----------



## fflintoff

Slammer from Empyrean:-

Headline Drilling Report 
Released    09:06 14-Nov-07 
Number 6879H 



 RNS Number:6879H
Empyrean Energy PLC
14 November 2007


14 November 2007
                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

              Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block B, Texas USA

   •Sugarloaf-1 well starts producing gas and condensate on flow test from
    deepest of three zones

   •Kennedy #1H well reaches total depth after encouraging gas readings
    whilst drilling and prepares to run electric logs

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in
Germany and USA today announces the following:

Kennedy #1H Well
----------------
Texas Crude Energy Inc has advised that the Kennedy-1 exploration well has
reached total depth of 16,750 feet (measured depth) and is running logs prior to
casing for completion and testing. Total depth was called some 820 feet short of
the original proposed measured depth of 17,570 feet for operational convenience.
Background gas levels whilst drilling in the Austin Chalk upper target zone
remained in the range of 40 to 300 units; the commercial significance of which
will not be known until testing operations are completed.

Sugarloaf-1 Well
----------------
Post fracture stimulation logs have now been run and are being analysed. The
lowermost Austin Chalk interval that was previously fracture stimulated has been
put back on flow test and on 11 November commenced flowing gas at a rate of
387,000 cubic feet per day with approximately 335 barrels of water (mostly frac
fluids) per day. As at report time on 13 November, the well had declined to
180,000 cubic feet per day with minor quantities of water. In addition, over the
final 5 hours of the report period, 39 barrels of condensate had been produced.
The significance of these flows will not be known until the testing of the zone
has been completed and analysed.

Further updates will be provided following developments.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said - "The fact that the
Sugarloaf-1 well has started producing gas and now condensate on test flow is
very encouraging. This has significant implications for the potential
productivity from the deepest of three potentially productive zones in the
Sugarloaf-1 well. More testing and information is required, but this is
certainly encouraging from a zone that was not looking so good. In addition, the
Kennedy well appears to have gas zones that correlate to the discovery well on
Block A nearby and we look forward to analysis of electric logs and testing."

For further information

Charlie Geller/ Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6605/
+44 (0) 7979955923

Rod Venables
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746


----------



## fflintoff

Bell Potter seem confident:-

“Meanwhile, Bell Potter, Stripe Capital and Tolhurst have ended up adding more shares than expected to their holdings in Aurora Oil & Gas after taking up the shortfall in the one-for-10 rights issue. Only 15.2 per cent of the rights issue was subscribed, leaving 15.42 million shares to be placed by the underwriters. Aurora has separately raised an additional $10.6 million from "professional and sophisticated" investors at 53c a share. 
Aurora, which closed on Friday at 48c, thought it had left itself enough time since announcing the rights issue in July. The idea was that results would be in from the Sugarloaf-1 well in Texas, of which it has 20 per cent, and these would encourage shareholders to take up the issue. 
But delays of various sorts put paid to that plan, and those results are still awaited (as they are at Adelphi Energy and Eureka Energy, which also have stakes in Sugarloaf). 
But the words is that the underwriters aren't sweating, given the goal at Sugarloaf is several trillion cubic feet of gas along with condensate.”

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22740709-18261,00.html


----------



## chance fate

At the current test rate the condy is worth around $3m/year... dividing that by respective shareholdings and issued shares - that's only in the order of cents per share...  but as someone else said it's a vertical well and it's zone 3and it's still being tested...  but for a 3Tcf (gas) field I would have expected a higher gas flow rate...  or is this actually a condensate field with associated gas???    arghh... more anxious waiting....


----------



## Agentm

chance fate said:


> At the current test rate the condy is worth around $3m/year... dividing that by respective shareholdings and issued shares - that's only in the order of cents per share... but as someone else said it's a vertical well and it's zone 3and it's still being tested... but for a 3Tcf (gas) field I would have expected a higher gas flow rate... or is this actually a condensate field with associated gas???  arghh... more anxious waiting....





The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.

so is the zone 2 and 3 potential oil wells with gas??


----------



## fflintoff

Conservative post from lottie on ADVFN?

"Lotire - 14 Nov'07 - 10:58 - 3173 of 3177


K1h is another monster.
it big, bad ,and pressurised beyond belief."


----------



## Agentm

its now very interesting days, will SL1 zone 3 come on strong or not!!!!

looking forward to any announcements on that zone, 

tom is saying it as he sees it!!

 "The fact that the Sugarloaf-1 well has started producing gas and now condensate on test flow is very encouraging. This has significant implications for the potential productivity from the deepest of three potentially productive zones in the Sugarloaf-1 well. More testing and information is required, but this is certainly encouraging from a zone that was not looking so good. In addition, the Kennedy well appears to have gas zones that correlate to the discovery well on Block A nearby and we look forward to analysis of electric logs and testing."


----------



## Broadside

seems like Empyrean talks up the prospect much more than the Aussie partners, would be good to see a little more optimism from the JVPs on this side of the pond.


----------



## Agentm

Tom has been saying this for some time now..

In addition, the Kennedy well appears to have gas zones that correlate to the discovery well on Block A nearby and we look forward to analysis of electric logs and testing

from what i have heard they have tested the gas and it appears our formation has the same qualities in the gas as the kunde 1 production well. (he cant name it under the terms of the contract they have with TCEI / conocophillips)

We can see the formation is producing already in zone 3, and all the signs are there that kennedy 1H has all the ingredients for success. matching gas, matching formation and overpressurised chalks. The logs will be interesting, and i have no doubt at all that the kennedy well can be viewed with a high level of optimism..  

keeping on being "encouraged"


----------



## Agentm

as usual, well worth a read


<A class=un1 title=Validated href="http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/pby.php?user=quattro44">*quattro44** - 14 Nov'07 - 22:50 - 3289 of 3310*

estseon et al.

Most fluid/proppant frac jobs are combined with pumping near liquid nitrogen down at the same time. The idea is that the nitrogen expands in the formation at elevated temperatures and forces the frac fluids back out after fraccing so helping clean up. This may or may not happen instantly but take a day a day or two especially if the perforations take a while to clear themselves. The fact that this has sinced produced significant gas and condensate from a vertical well in chalk may be very significant. The reduction in flow will be due to the expelled nitrogen running down but the fact that gas continues to flow means that they have proved that the frac job has managed to connect various natural fractures in this formation and thus it could well produce very very much more after horizontal drilling.

Separate zones rarely are interconnected together: that is why they are separate and pressurized due to a natural impermeable cap above each one. A frac job never intends to connect different zones, only to propagate a fracture within each zone. To send a fracture outside a zone would court disaster as you could send it into a water zone. You would also be unable to monitor pressure and not know from where you were producing gas etc from, as the pressures in each zone may be very different.
Conversely, this is perhaps one reason why they want k2 as a monitor well as they would be able to detect if there was any interconnectivity between zones during a frac job on an adjacent well.
Therefore it is never intented to just drill one horizontal in one zone with the intention of producing from many! It is perfectly possible, and done in practice, to drill more than one horizontal in multiple zones in one well, as this is obviously the most economic. Having said that, if they can prove that zone 3 is fractured, can take fracturing, and may be connected to zone 2 without any nasty water zones, AND it is not worth producing from this zone 3, then it MAY be worth using zone 3 as a water or gas injection zone to pressurize the more prolific upper zones. But that is a wild one from me and i have to say very unlikely!

Imho this appears to be extraordinary good news in such a well and vindicates their decision to frac.
q44


----------



## prawn_86

Sorry guys about this question,

but i have never met a company board member that isnt 'enouraged' or 'excited' abouts its prospects, even though a lot of them never get anywhere.

Im not saying ADI wont, im just wondering why I should listen to what the board has to say. Rather than 'actual' results not preliminary studies or anything.


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> Sorry guys about this question,
> 
> but i have never met a company board member that isnt 'enouraged' or 'excited' abouts its prospects, even though a lot of them never get anywhere.
> 
> Im not saying ADI wont, im just wondering why I should listen to what the board has to say. Rather than 'actual' results not preliminary studies or anything.





you dont have to believe anything at all.. ADI have never used encouraged in their announcements, they do so to remain fairly neutral at this point when the formation is not proven to flow, but with zone 3 flowing oil you have to be a little encouraged. 


tom at eme has every reason to say what he did, and i am as bullish as the jvp are on this one. 

others that are encouraged are the ones buying 4 million shares the other day.. and also the aut brokers, if you look at the australian article.

dont let it bother you too much.. i use encouraged as if i say much more i get slaughtered for being optimistic, now it not even cool to be encouraged.

hows this then

i am not discouraged by anything thats happening?? safer for you?

prawn if your going to moderate me, let me know via pm now,  happy to leave this forum ok!!


----------



## fflintoff

Latest from Empyrean in London;-


RNS Number:7801H
Empyrean Energy PLC
15 November 2007


15 November 2007

Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

* TCEI JV Block A # 3 well encounters gas shows whilst drilling over the
target zone

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas company with exploration and production
assets in Germany and USA today announces the following regarding Sugarloaf
Block A in Texas:

TCEI JV Block A-3 Well
----------------------
Empyrean has been advised by the operator that gas shows have been encountered
over a 185 feet interval at about 12,000 feet depth which is the main objective
of the TCEI JV Block A-3 well. The gas recordings rose to a maximum of 350 units
which is approximately ten times the background gas readings immediately prior
to the shows. These gas readings were recorded during drilling of the vertical
pilot hole section of the well.

Current operations are preparation for open hole logging. The well is then
planned to be drilled 1500-2000 feet horizontally into the target zone for
completion and testing.

The commercial significance of the gas shows will not be known until the full
results of any testing are analyzed.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.

Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said - "This is further good news
for Empyrean as we now have a total of five wells in the Sugarkane discovery
area - two on Block B and three on Block A that have encountered gas whilst
drilling. We look forward to the results of testing from each well during what
promises to be an exciting testing phase for the company."

For further information

Jonathan Charles/Charlie Geller
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611

Rod Venables
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Empyrean Energy plc
Tel : +44(0) 207 182 1746



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END
DRLIIFIDLSLELID


----------



## prawn_86

Agentm said:


> prawn if your going to moderate me, let me know via pm now,  happy to leave this forum ok!!




It was actually a legitimate question.

just because im a mod doesnt mean i cant participate in discussions. 

I find it intersting that a company whose chart/price hasnt been that extraordinary over the last couple years, can have so many posts. I mean like 140 pages for a co which has gone from 20 to 60c in 2 years. It certainly must have done something right to make its shareholders so loyal.

Perhaps i could write an essay to do with brand loyalty using this co as an example for my marketing degree


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> It was actually a legitimate question.
> 
> just because im a mod doesnt mean i cant participate in discussions.
> 
> I find it intersting that a company whose chart/price hasnt been that extraordinary over the last couple years, can have so many posts. I mean like 140 pages for a co which has gone from 20 to 60c in 2 years. It certainly must have done something right to make its shareholders so loyal.
> 
> Perhaps i could write an essay to do with brand loyalty using this co as an example for my marketing degree





this *could* be one of the biggest onshore gas discoveries in recent history,
not worth it in your book,  well worth it for the holders

6tcf 1 billion barrels of oil,, and looking better and better..

enjoy


----------



## doctorj

Agentm said:


> this could be one of the biggest onshore gas discoveries in recent history,
> not worth it in your book, well worth it for the holders
> 
> 6tcf 1 billion barrels of oil,, and looking better and better..



You’ve got my attention.  Given you seem to be the expert –
1)     Those numbers you quote, are they reserves or just a target?  If so what confidence rating is that based on?
2)     How many wells have they drilled? How many have found something? What have they flowed?
3)     How deep? What sands?
4)     This seems to have been going on quite a long time.  What’s the hold up?
5)     Is there a recent investor presentation that gives me answers to these questions?

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

You’ve got my attention. Given you seem to be the expert –
1) Those numbers you quote, are they reserves or just a target? If so what confidence rating is that based on?

reserve estimates on zone 1 are 3tcf 500mmbbls , based on conocophillips tcei numbers over 200,000 acres.. we have 20,000 acres

zone 3 is begining to flow, if that flows each zone can hold equal reserves.. so 6tcf for zone 3 and if zone 2 (which is the biggest zone) then add another 3 maybe?


2) How many wells have they drilled? 
where do we start.. 
Pogue, 
kunde 1 and 
Kunde 2 vertical
Kunde 3 Horizontal
meeks 1 vertical (pioneer)
baker 1 horizontal
Kunde 2 directional

our acreages...

Sugarloaf 1 vertical
Kennedy 1H horizontal

there are others, but i wont go into them...


How many have found something?

all of them

What have they flowed?

only kunde 1 has flowed zone 1 and SL1 has just flowed in zone 3, the rest are all about to..

3) How deep? 

11500 - 12300

What sands?

no sands,, extremely high overpressurised high matrix porosity austin chalks

4) This seems to have been going on quite a long time. 

15 years of research

What’s the hold up?

nothing now.. before,, proving the play in ultra secrecy, and getting all the leases.. conocophillips is the player, worlds top 10 corporation, this is a discovery project for them.. massive well progam about to commence..

5) Is there a recent investor presentation that gives me answers to these questions?

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/presentations/Investor Update Presentation Sep 2007.pdf

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20070905_2.pdf



Cheers


----------



## jtb

Agentm said:


> reserve estimates on zone 1 are 3tcf 500mmbbls , based on conocophillips tcei numbers over 200,000 acres.. we have 20,000 acres




Excuse my tired mind AgentM but can you clarify this statement please?

Have we got some zero's in the wrong place?

Ta 

J


----------



## Agentm

jtb said:


> Excuse my tired mind AgentM but can you clarify this statement please?
> 
> Have we got some zero's in the wrong place?
> 
> Ta
> 
> J





i cant see any numbers wrong,, can you clarify which ones you think are wrong please.. that link on the post takes you to the presentation which i thought was the same..

cheers


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> i cant see any numbers wrong,, can you clarify which ones you think are wrong please.. that link on the post takes you to the presentation which i thought was the same..
> 
> cheers



Agentm, ADI is only involved in Sugerloaf isn't it, which is the 20K acres?

The 200K is Sugerkane, and isn't that Aurora's?

And, how much of Sugarloaf does ADI own? Isn't it just 20%? So, 20% of 20K is 4K? And, this is just 'potential' isn't it?

The quarterly didn't sound too great for success here. Can you clarrify it, or say why it's encouraging? Perhaps recent anns overide this.

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> I mean like 140 pages for a co which has gone from 20 to 60c in 2 years. It certainly must have done something right to make its shareholders so loyal.



Actually, it's gone from 30 cents to 50 cents in 3 years, which is a 30% return. Not bad for 3 years: 10% a year, not much under the average for the market, which is around 12% isn't it?

This descending triangle is looking tenuous to me. 



> *Descending Triangle (Continuation)*
> 
> The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> Agentm, ADI is only involved in Sugerloaf isn't it, which is the 20K acres?
> 
> The 200K is Sugerkane, and isn't that Aurora's?
> 
> And, how much of Sugarloaf does ADI own? Isn't it just 20%? So, 20% of 20K is 4K? And, this is just 'potential' isn't it?
> 
> The quarterly didn't sound too great for success here. Can you clarrify it, or say why it's encouraging? Perhaps recent anns overide this.
> 
> Cheers,
> kennas





hey kennas

i dont concur with what you say,, i feel you have it slightly wrong.

the total acreages that is currently given by TCEI/ conocophillips as being
the sugarloaf play is 200,000 acres.

there is a JVP that adi is in with

TCEI
ADI
AUT
EKA 
EME (uk)
and various unnamed partners

that is what your looking at 20,000 acres in this JVP, so 10% of the total sugarkane play.


AUT has gone out and purchased smallacreages south of and north east of the 20,000 acres. called ipiama and longhorn.. i could go further into who named it and what its targets are etc ,but i wont..

on zone 1 TCEi has said sugarkane is potentially 
>3 TCF and ~500mmbbls in​upper Chalk zone only

our jvp called sugarloaf AMI has said that just on the 20,000 acres the potential for "one zone only" the ZONE 1 region, is potentially 

600 bcf. 
Upside of ~1TCFE if other Chalk zones factored in.​ 
regarding the quarterly, ADI are not talking this play up deliberately as they dont want a gdn senario, as this play is totally unique, and far from traditional austin chalks plays, they will not talk it up unless the play is confirmed. A few days ago we got the confirmation that the chalks are able to produce on our acreages, as the testing of zone 3 at SL1 well showed the well suddenly came on after being written of by the masses. 

currently conocophillips are sitting on horizontal well, kunde 3 (sugarkane) to be fraced next week, directional well kunde 2 (all three zones awaiting permit to produce from zone 1 sugarkane) awaiting frac shortly after, and drilling baker 1 horizontal (sugarkane), currently drilling and last night reported shows, all wells are showing potential.


We have kennedy 1H horizontal being logged right now, all zone 1 sugarkane. and Sl1 flow testing zone 3 chalks.

so the 600bcf is able to be increased if zone 3 comes good, then theres zone 2 which imho is superior to both the others on the logs i have seen.

hope that helps..​


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> Actually, it's gone from 30 cents to 50 cents in 3 years, which is a 30% return. Not bad for 3 years: 10% a year, not much under the average for the market, which is around 12% isn't it?
> 
> This descending triangle is looking tenuous to me.




re the charts, i have to say i dont follow them kennas. i admire people like you that do, and i find it difficult to translate it.. for instance you could have the same tenuos graph for BUR two days ago, then yesterday, all hell broke loose as they announced the wells returns..  in terms of ADi that senario can equally happen imho.  

you say tenuos, i would say its just a share that reacts to news from the various jvp's announcements. imho the announcement yesterday from eme will generate confidence in the buy side of the aussie jvps today...  when the share was .60 they announced zone 3 was not going to happen, the share dropped on that... its news driven by and large imho kennas..


baker is coming good, and many understand the history there and feel that well was drilled not primarily to get a target but more perhaps because of leasing requirement, so to see a well basically understood to be a dartboard type well, very hit and miss perhaps, looking the goods makes the 200,000 acres very enticing..

imho there will be a massive forward drilling program to follow in the near term..


----------



## Sean K

Hi AM,



Agentm said:


> that is what your looking at 20,000 acres in this JVP, so 10% of the total sugarkane play.




From my understanding ADI have NIL of the 'Sugarkane play', but have a 20% interest in Sugarloaf. 

Can you explain why you are referring to ADI having an interest in the total Sugakane area.

Sorry, I may be way off track here, but from my basic reading it doesn't seem to add up. 

I'm fairly green with O&G. 

kennas


----------



## doctorj

Ok, so without reading too much more than what's posted here, 600bcf is likely the p5 number for this play.  For comparison, PPP, Tap & Apache recently drilled at Maitland and there's the potential for 880bcf there with plenty of upside given they're yet to find the edge of the field.


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> re the charts, i have to say i dont follow them kennas. i admire people like you that do, and i find it difficult to translate it.. for instance you could have the same tenuos graph for BUR two days ago, then yesterday, all hell broke loose as they announced the wells returns..  in terms of ADi that senario can equally happen imho.  .



Yes, I absolutely agree, charts can be shot to pieces. Normally the ones I draw. 

They are just probabilities, a nice disclaimer for chartists, especially EW'ers who can only decifer a chart after the fact. 

A significant strike anywhere for an O&G'er will blow any charting out of the well!


----------



## barney

Hi all,
The thing that I keep remembering is the Exec Directors comment in the Annual Report which stated …… “We believe we have discovered a new play in this part of Texas” ………….  This comment was made prior to “Kennedy” and without testing SL1 (Testing that we punters know about anyway  )  
For the company to make statements like this, they must be fairly confident about what they have in SL, ………. If not, the comment could be considered irresponsible.  I guess at this stage, it comes down to whether you believe what they say or not ………….. an act of faith no less.
 The chart is obviously not pretty, but there has been some steady accumulation whenever the 50 cent region is tested …………. Plenty of 50,000 share orders slipping through here and there. 
Many have decided to bail out, but I suspect, if Kennedy hits anything substantial, the already thin sell side could evaporate in the blink of an eye ….. I’ll continue to hold for future results …………..  I personally think we are just at the beginning of the Sugarloaf story …. There will probably be lots more ups and downs,  but we need to remember that these first wells are testing the formation to work out where to drill future wells for the best results …………… The proess is slow, but the potential of a “new play in Texas” should be kept in mind imo.  Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> Hi AM,
> 
> 
> 
> From my understanding ADI have NIL of the 'Sugerkane play', but have a 20% interest in Sugarloaf.
> 
> Can you explain why you are referring to ADI having an interest in the total Sugakane area.
> 
> Sorry, I may be way off track here, but from my basic reading it doesn't seem to add up.
> 
> I'm faily green with O&G.
> 
> kennas




we absolutely have the sugarkane.. we have all three austin chalks zones.

ok kennas, this is where it gets more complex..

our area is called sugarloaf AMI, because of operational reasons,

1/ AUT has had to secure more acreages, but was previously not allowed to disclose locations.
2/ EME has a deal on wells with TCEi conocophilips, and cant even name the true well names.
3/ the well was named suagrloaf 1 the AMI was named after the well.

the play is 3 zones of high matrix porosity overpressurised chalks.

ZONE 1

its called sugarkane, its named by conocphillips whom discovered it, its officially named in the rrc. 

ZONE 2

unnamed potentially equal or better size to zone 1

ZONE 3

unnamed, recently (this week) put on flow test at SL1. potentially equal or better to suagrkane ZONE 1..


We have rights to all zones all regions all depths in the 20,000 acres.

this is from the UK,, froma guy called ed.. he is explainignthe wells from EME perspective, JV-3 is baker horizontal.. jv-1 is kunde 3


They may have stopped short as they encountered a change in lithology or perhaps zone 1-3 were slightly higher in Kennedy-1, impossible to say without the logs. Either way SL-1 has produced from zone 3. I had written that one off. Gas and condensate is positive. I reckon the wellbore reservoir interface is damaged from the previous failed frac attempt giving the poor flows at this point. Kennedy will be the real tester of this zone. If the reservoir is highly compartmentalised then it will be the horizontal well that breaches the compartments in the payable zone and with more communication with the reservoir should come increased premeability and sustainable flows as well as a much bigger pay section exposed to the hole. Carbonates are much more robust than sandstones so horizontals should be easier to complete. We know from previous logs that the main austins are a slight mix of sandstone, but high very % carbonates. Liquids are much more valuable than gas still so the more condensate and higher flows the better for the value to EME.

I reckon it'll all happen from alternative wells, SL-1 was drilled to test the hosston, the Austins were a bonus. They'll probably test zones one and two but do the horizontal testing from Kennedy only. We could be onto a gas and liquids find at block A and B now. Still not convinced by the size and pressures until we get monster well production (possibly JV-1 fingers crossed).

I still reckon that SL-1 is only scratching the surface of possible production potential, at least we know we have a viable reservoir for gas and condensate flow at present, although we still need a long-term test. A horizontal production test well at Kennedy or JV-1 will make or break this one as a big find or only a modest find. Well damage in SL-1 may not be giving the entire picture at present.

JV-3 well with 185ft gas column is good news, ten times above background sounds very good too. I would imagine that it will respond similarly to the other Kunde wells when tested. All looking good all wells coming in gas +ve from the appraisals of Kunde. Its all pointing in the right direction for a big find now with lots more wells to be drilled. We still need those horizontal well test results, sounds like Tom is keen to get those done and dusted too which is a good sign. Plenty more wells to come and plenty of wells to be tested so we are going to be busy (don't forget Bondi in the middle of all this action).


----------



## jtb

kennas said:


> Agentm, ADI is only involved in Sugerloaf isn't it, which is the 20K acres?
> 
> The 200K is Sugerkane, and isn't that Aurora's?
> 
> And, how much of Sugarloaf does ADI own? Isn't it just 20%? So, 20% of 20K is 4K? And, this is just 'potential' isn't it?
> 
> The quarterly didn't sound too great for success here. Can you clarrify it, or say why it's encouraging? Perhaps recent anns overide this.
> 
> Cheers,
> kennas




Thanks K, thats where I was coming from- I keep coming back to look at this mainly due your relentless optimism AgentM
About due for another run to 75c maybe............


----------



## prawn_86

It keeps reminding me of another oiler AKK.

They continually were updating the market saying they have 'encouraging' results and 'excellent potential' and 'new leases with lots of pay', but each time the announcements were disappointing.

Point being, co's like to use these words to keep shareholder interest and the ASX doesnt seem to pull them up on it.


----------



## Sean K

AM,



Agentm said:


> we absolutely have the sugarkane.. we have all three austin chalks zones.
> 
> ok kennas, this is where it gets more complex..
> 
> our area is called sugarloaf AMI, *because of operational reasons*,
> 
> 1/ AUT has had to secure more acreages, but was previously not allowed to disclose locations.
> 2/ EME has  a deal on wells with TCEi conocophilips, and cant even name the true well names.
> 3/ the well was named suagrloaf 1 the AMI was named after the well.
> 
> the play is 3 zones of high matrix porosity overpressurised chalks.
> 
> ZONE 1
> 
> its called sugarkane, its named by conocphillips whom discovered it, its officially named in the rrc.
> 
> ZONE 2
> 
> unnamed potentially equal or better size to zone 1
> 
> ZONE 3
> 
> unnamed, recently (this week) put on flow test at SL1.  potentially equal or better to suagrkane ZONE 1..
> 
> 
> *We have rights to all zones all regions all depths in the 20,000 acres*.
> 
> this is from the UK,, froma guy called ed.. he is explainignthe wells from EME perspective, JV-3 is baker horizontal..
> 
> [FONT='Tahoma','sans-serif']Hi Saf,
> 
> They may have stopped short as they encountered a change in lithology or perhaps zone 1-3 were slightly higher in Kennedy-1, impossible to say without the logs.  Either way SL-1 has produced from zone 3.  I had written that one off.  Gas and condensate is positive.  I reckon the wellbore reservoir interface is damaged from the previous failed frac attempt giving the poor flows at this point.  Kennedy will be the real tester of this zone.  If the reservoir is highly compartmentalised then it will be the horizontal well that breaches the compartments in the payable zone and with more communication with the reservoir should come increased premeability and sustainable flows as well as a much bigger pay section exposed to the hole.  Carbonates are much more robust than sandstones so horizontals should be easier to complete.  We know from previous logs that the main austins are a slight mix of sandstone, but high very % carbonates.  Liquids are much more valuable than gas still so the more condensate and higher flows the better for the value to EME.
> 
> I reckon it'll all happen from alternative wells, SL-1 was drilled to test the hosston, the Austins were a bonus.  They'll probably test zones one and two but do the horizontal testing from Kennedy only.  We could be onto a gas and liquids find at block A and B now.  Still not convinced by the size and pressures until we get monster well production (possibly JV-1 fingers crossed).
> 
> I still reckon that SL-1 is only scratching the surface of possible production potential, at least we know we have a viable reservoir for gas and condensate flow at present, although we still need a long-term test.  A horizontal production test well at Kennedy or JV-1 will make or break this one as a big find or only a modest find.  Well damage in SL-1 may not be giving the entire picture at present.
> 
> JV-3 well with 185ft gas column is good news, ten times above background sounds very good too.  I would imagine that it will respond similarly to the other Kunde wells when tested.  All looking good all wells coming in gas +ve from the appraisals of Kunde.  Its all pointing in the right direction for a big find now with lots more wells to be drilled.  We still need those horizontal well test results, sounds like Tom is keen to get those done and dusted too which is a good sign.  Plenty more wells to come and plenty of wells to be tested so we are going to be busy (don't forget Bondi in the middle of all this action).
> 
> Regards,
> Ed.
> 
> [/FONT]



OK, who is Saf and a who is Ed and how is that related to anything I have just asked?

'Operational reasons', is this a classified Defence operation?

ADI confirmed to have all rights to 20K acres, but they only own 20% of this? This is not the surrounding 200K acres, correct?

I'm still a little lost. I will go back through the anns to try and make heads and tails of this. 

Cheers, kennas


----------



## Broadside

prawn_86 said:


> It keeps reminding me of another oiler AKK.
> 
> They continually were updating the market saying they have 'encouraging' results and 'excellent potential' and 'new leases with lots of pay', but each time the announcements were disappointing.
> 
> Point being, co's like to use these words to keep shareholder interest and the ASX doesnt seem to pull them up on it.




If anything, from what I have seen since holding these (and EKAO) they prefer to take the "glass half empty" route and not hype...this has protected punters from excessive spikes (alright, we got to a dollar but compare the volatility of GDN as how not to announce things to the market)....the fact zone 3 flows (on a vertical well) after seeming a duster 2 weeks ago is testament to the fact they don't "talk it up" without justification.


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> AM,
> 
> OK, who is Saf and a who is Ed and how is that related to anything I have just asked?
> 
> 'Operational reasons', is this a classified Defence operation?
> 
> ADI confirmed to have all rights to 20K acres, but they only own 20% of this? This is not the surrounding 200K acres, correct?
> 
> I'm still a little lost. I will go back through the anns to try and make heads and tails of this.
> 
> Cheers, kennas





so much interest kennas, will try to help here,

OK, who is Saf and a who is Ed and how is that related to anything I have just asked?

saf and ed post on advfn and other sites, ed is from the oil industry, he comes through with a lot of good insights into the geology and the operations. take it or leasve it i guess.. 

'Operational reasons', is this a classified Defence operation?

not at all, just a highly secrective play being explored and developed by TCEI, our jvp and conocophillips, 

ADI confirmed to have all rights to 20K acres, but they only own 20% of this? This is not the surrounding 200K acres, correct?

correct, the sugarloaf ami that adi is in has rights only to the 20,000 acres..

kennas,, i can assure you as you go through this you will find more questions than answers.. 

good luck in your journey!!


----------



## Sean K

jtb said:


> Thanks K, thats where I was coming from- I keep coming back to look at this mainly due your relentless optimism AgentM
> About due for another run to 75c maybe............



Hi jtb, 

Not due, IMO, but I would be watching closely for a break up out of this trading  range. Descending triangles, as mentioned, are generally bearish, but a break up from these changes the picture. Still, if you were a technical trader this is a low probability set up for an entry before any break. 

Having said that, the funnymentals need to be clear, and I am struggling to see the high probability upside right now, considering the information presented. 

I do abosolutley agree that O&G ers can change direction VERY quickly (up and down), so that needs to be taken into consideration. 

I look forward to some more facts and figures that I can make heads and tails of....

All the best to ADI believers!


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> It keeps reminding me of another oiler AKK.
> 
> They continually were updating the market saying they have 'encouraging' results and 'excellent potential' and 'new leases with lots of pay', but each time the announcements were disappointing.
> 
> Point being, co's like to use these words to keep shareholder interest and the ASX doesnt seem to pull them up on it.





i agree 

the current optimism shown by the jvp is the first time we have really seen it, and the best we have is encouraging, although Tom from eme was very excited in the baker release of eme's in the uk!

Commenting today, Empyrean director Tom Kelly said - "This is further good news for Empyrean as we now have a total of five wells in the Sugarkane discovery area - two on Block B and three on Block A that have encountered gas whilst drilling. We look forward to the results of testing from each well during what promises to be an exciting testing phase for the company."


i think adi have been very conservative, and i think it stems from alex and also from eric (arq energy) being cautious to not ramp this thing. its unique and different geology, very new territory, so until more is known the jvp are keeping the news flow tight and the share price in a nice little pocket..

as things play out, and if as we all hope the wells come through strong as expected, then they will hype it up i can assure you!


----------



## Evangeline

Gee I hope you're right M....seems all my stocks are going *rse up atm...would be great to get some action here!


----------



## resourceboom

Hi Doc, not sure what a p5 is, did you mean p50 (50% probability)? I believe the kane 600bcfe is a medium-high probability.  If we get z1 and z2, gas and condensate could well be above 1TCFE.

True we only have 20% (more like 16% NRI) but when you consider that is around 100BCF for ADI with a mkt cap of around 55M AUD, I think we have plenty of scope for a rerating.

I also have a very small holding in PPP and yes the estimates sound similar, however the gas is 1) onshore (cheaper opex & capex) and 2) in USA, where I believe gas prices are much stronger then in AUS. Of course when testing of Z1 at SL1 as well of Kunde 3, Baker 1 and Kennedy 1 horizontals are done the market will be much more informed, and on success I don't think it would be unreasonable for the sp to be between $1-2 ($1-2 per BCFE).

Having said that of course there are many ways to play an investment in ADI. Some may wait till the bearish chart pattern turns around, some may wait till the fundamentals have been derisked with further testing, some may bag it and not invest at all. But there are also plenty who are invested now in the hope of larger returns who are of the belief that this could well be a great new texas play. Agentm is one of the most confident holders, has done a stack of research, much of which he has shared here. As such an outspoken character he risks being glorified or crucified upon success or failure, and we have already seen posts carrying both of these sentiments. 



doctorj said:


> Ok, so without reading too much more than what's posted here, 600bcf is likely the p5 number for this play.  For comparison, PPP, Tap & Apache recently drilled at Maitland and there's the potential for 880bcf there with plenty of upside given they're yet to find the edge of the field.


----------



## Agentm

hey resource..

nice to see your still around. i think your response was extremely precise.. i believe broker expectations i have heard gave the $2+ region as a next stop on the sp. with wells all testing in quick fashion the p10 p50 p90 will start to kick in. With zone 3 suddenly firing up the jvp have a lot more to think about, and zone 2 must be looked at without doubt. I think the days ahead are going to flow with plenty of information. kunde wells are due for testing, baker is steaming ahead, kennedy is due to be cased and fraced. if kunde 2 is in the zone 3 region as i believe, and with the data from Sl1 testing zone 3 right now, the TCEI Conocphillips camp can start to look at the reserve potentials of the zone 3 region as well.. i gather zone 2 will have to be looked at in SL1 once they are satisfied with the flow tests of zone 3.. 

compared to the news blackout days of the past, we are seeing the early stages of a genuine play developing here, maybe we will hear more on how big this discovery is in the near term.. i think its just around the corner.

cheers


----------



## pauldoohan1

Gday guy's excuse my stupid question but when i look at the announcments for ADI and AUT they are the same I'm assuming this is because they are part owners of the same well's.  Why are the share prices for these two companies alway way different.  AUT seems to hold more land more wells on the go and a share in the big potential wells that ADI does.  Am I missing something here?


----------



## sam76

pauldoohan1 said:


> Gday guy's excuse my stupid question but when i look at the announcments for ADI and AUT they are the same I'm assuming this is because they are part owners of the same well's.  Why are the share prices for these two companies alway way different.  AUT seems to hold more land more wells on the go and a share in the big potential wells that ADI does.  Am I missing something here?





hey mate, Yes AUT has a bigger slice of the pie so to say but the discrepency in price is most likely due to AUT having a lot more shares on issue.

You also have to take into account the recent C raising that finished well under subscribed (85%) meaning that the underwriters (Bell Potter et al) had to take up a lot of script which no doubt will be sold into the next run.


----------



## fflintoff

sam76 said:


> hey mate, Yes AUT has a bigger slice of the pie so to say but the discrepency in price is most likely due to AUT having a lot more shares on issue.
> 
> You also have to take into account the recent C raising that finished well under subscribed (85%) meaning that the underwriters (Bell Potter et al) had to take up a lot of script which no doubt will be sold into the next run.



15 November 2007 

“RIGHTS ISSUE – PLACEMENT OF SHORTFALL 
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT, “Aurora”) advised on 6 November 2007 that the underwritten shortfall of 15.4 million shares under the Company’s 1 for 10 non-renounceable entitlement issue (“Rights Issue”) was being placed by the underwriters of the Rights Issue. 
Aurora advises that this placement (“Placement”) has now been completed and that 15,426,633 new fully paid ordinary shares have been allotted and issued to professional and sophisticated investor clients of the Rights Issue underwriters. “

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20071115.pdf


----------



## Evangeline

I guess that must indicate quite a degree of faith by the sophistos...wouldn't you say Flintoff.....?


----------



## Agentm

i thought i would add some info so you can get a picture of how many wells in the region are producing from or have produced from the austin chalks.

the red markers are producers, the yellow ones by and large are not, they were either shut in or are currently on hold pending frac.

in so far as the fashing field is concerned, there are wells there that have produced for 50 years from the edwards, they keep fracing up the well and only a few have been fraced in the chalks.. but its interesting that they have been productive outside the fault in the fashing.

the two sturken wells near by were drilled in the 70's, pre horizontal technology, they noted the chalks but back then the chalks were not considered as production zones..

meeks 1 i have mentioned before, drilled last year by pioneer, it tested the chalks and then immediately shut in the well.. there are actually 2 richter wells  richter 1 and 5.  they are just hard to see on the image.


----------



## Agentm

Kennedy #1H Well 

Well logging operations over the open horizontal portion of the Kennedy-1 well have been completed and a 4-1/2 inch liner is presently being run to the measured Total Depth of 16,750 feet. 
Interpretation of the logs indicates several extended zones of potential pay in the upper part of the Austin Chalk sequence. A liner is presently being run as the first step in an extensive fracture stimulation and testing program. 
It is considered that the log results at the Kennedy-1 well are encouraging in their own right. However, this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play and will require careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the test program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks. 

Sugarloaf-1 Well 

The well is currently shut-in and is preparing to run completion tubing in order to carry out longer term production and pressure tests. 
Since the last report on Wednesday 14th November, gas and condensate production has continued to decline and gas, condensate and water flows became intermittent. During this test period gas was produced at a maximum rate of 387,000 cubic feet per day. A total of 51 barrels of condensate and 391 barrels of water (mostly frac fluid but with formation water being produced in the latter stages of the test) were also recovered over the period. 
Analyses of the formation water are characteristic of a formation below the Austin Chalk and it is likely that the frac has penetrated to below the Austin Chalk target zone and is allowing water production into the well. Further well testing will be required in order to confirm the source of the formation water and hydrocarbons. 
The Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc. has advised that it does not expect further tests to be carried out on the Sugarloaf 2 and 3 (middle and upper) zones until the test on the Kennedy well has been concluded.


----------



## Evangeline

I like the sound of this:

"It is considered that the log results at the Kennedy-1 well are encouraging in their own right. However, this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a *new reservoir and stratigraphic play* and will require careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the test program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks."


----------



## Agentm

Evangeline said:


> I like the sound of this:
> 
> "It is considered that the log results at the Kennedy-1 well are encouraging in their own right. However, this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a *new reservoir and stratigraphic play* and will require careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the test program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks."





hey eva..

they have been saying that for some time, and its appearing again all of a sudden.. its really good to hear them continue to appraise it that way.

the 3 tcf equation for zone 1 over 200,000 acres becomes more and more a reality as each week from now on we will hear more and more good news from all the wells. If you thinkt eh SP was sitting at 1.20 on the expectation of the hosston sands, and we have a horizontal well about to go on production!!

With the amount of wells in the formation, and the amount producing the adi share far better value right now than pre the hosston sands stage of SL1 imho.

its great day ahead imho


----------



## resourceboom

Anybody notice the discrepancy in the ann:

"...carried out on the SL 2 and 3 (middle and upper) zones..."

now from upper to lower is SL Z1 Z2 Z3
so unless they were saying 2 is the second test and 3 the last tested zone

can be confusing...


----------



## Agentm

i would like to discuss zone 3..

"Analyses of the formation water are characteristic of a formation below the Austin Chalk and it is likely that the frac has penetrated to below the Austin Chalk target zone and is allowing water production into the well. Further well testing will be required in order to confirm the source of the formation water and hydrocarbons."

 either there is a natural frac or the frac itself went down into the next formation, they do chloride tests and each zone have distinct water characteristics.. so they know the formation water is not chalk water.. that is a good thing.. 

as q44 said

_"No not necessarily. They have learnt a lot from it whatever and that is the reason for doing it. For example, they know that the type of frac they did went outside the producing zone into water so they can change the design. There may be more production in another part of the field. It shows more encouragement for the other zones.
Judging by the comments on this thread over the last few days I really do not know why the vast majority of people invest in something they do not understand. When a series of oil companies do so much appraisal work on several different wells whilst giving out limited information it usually only means one thing: They have a serious discovery, but getting full information in order to report it as such and get the true extent takes ALOT of time. If you don't appreciate nor understand this then do not invest and let the rest of us enjoy a less volatile share!! Thanks"
_
_Yes the water is a problem, although it can be made less of a problem if it is coming from the same zone and you produce from slightly higher up in the formation or ensure you only drill into the upper part of the formation where the oil and gas is with a subsequent horizontal well.

It is very hard to say as if the frac caused it as the natural fractures may extend into the water formation if in the same zone. Water in the same formation as the gas/oil is less of a problem than one that might be infiltrating from another formation, as the water may well be at a higher pressure than the gas/oil. Therefore you will get more of it. That is why in a previous post I said that you have to avoid letting your frac move outside the formation you are really interested in.
q44_

its always good to get some insights from people with a little more industry insights..


if TCEi is still interested in zone 3, its because they have to eliminate all possibilities, and so far the well is showing them zone 3 is interconnected to a lower zone, but it doesnt mean the zone 3 is not in contention, imho it says zone 3 is still very much in contention.  as is zone 2..


there is $100 mill in land grab alone,, i look at the areas and look at fashing and the pioneers fields on the edwards to the south, and i look at the leasing, its like 5% of the leasing we have seen with the CP TCEI  efforts in the last 2 years..  this is, on the face of the massive leasing program , the makings of major discovery, and the kunde wells will be fraced soon, then kennedy then baker.. imho as the results come through on all of those wells, it will change everyones view on this jvp!


----------



## Evangeline

Imho this latest ann has been the most positive so far....kennedy is looking like a goer and zone 3, which was always a bonus, is not being ruled out.


----------



## Agentm

I am convinced that SL1 will come good, TCEI is going well there. its not possible to write off zone 3 if its producing!!

kennedy 1H imho has every chance of becoming a great well, i am very confident all the right things have been done to make it a success. I remain of the conviction that the elevated readings were regions close to natural fractures, and i feel a successful frac will open the well up to these fractures. 

i think zone 3 is seriously on the agenda again


----------



## Evangeline

Is the problem with zone 3 something to do with the screenout?....did this damage the formation, which is why they have let in water from the layer underneath?....is this why the flow might have petered out and the flow been intermittant?


----------



## Evangeline

And M....why do they want to finish Kunde 3 first?  Why is secrecy necessary now...who does Kunde belong to?


----------



## Agentm

re the zone 3.. all that is known by the JVP but not passed on as yet. There would be many theories on the water, it seems by the announcement the water is not from zone 3 perhaps. and they can trace it. so it makes zone 3 worth putting on production.. lets see what they do, perhaps they can pack the lower sections off and get less connectivity from the lower zones. its all unknown really, but they are trying to make a well out of it.

re kunde 3. its ready to frac according to EME, the secrecy is totally at the request of conocophillips. who are the operators of the well.

TCEI wouldnt ask the Cp guys to wait and let them frac first at Kennedy. IMHO and the way i hear it, kunde 3 is fraced and the TCEi guys will frac kenndy after.. as we all know. kunde 3 is ready to go any day, and i gather thats what will happen, next horizontal will be Kennedy 1H. But as the well is not completed yet and hasnt even got a workover rig there, i think you can expect to wait a few weeks..

kunde 3 will tell us what sort of results we can expect in the zone 1 sugarkane.. its not far off imho.. so next news will be as good as the last news..

btw eva, are you mainly a eme investor.. i notice you converse a lot there... sugarkane is an interesting discovery dont you think!!


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## mick z

what i don't understand is why are they fracing k3 when they have a natural frac of 600ft and 65ft flares.

if you have alook at BUR they are drilling in the austin chaulks,which have natural vertical fracs, they have two wells on production and havn't had to frac.

mick


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## fflintoff

:bananasmiFrom a " new " poster on ADVFN. His style seems to be identical to a prolific poster on this forum:-

â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬â‚¬

Lance Baltimore - 21 Nov'07 - 09:06 - 4431 of 4484


"I've been watching from the sidelines for some time but haven't posted. Good thread tarz.

I'm fairly certain that a placement is imminent and I won't be buying until this is out of the way.

The problem Tom Kelly is having is that institutions are driving extremely hard deals on price at the moment and will negotiate down on any excuse. They won't be influenced by a short time rise after a positive RNS when the odds are the share price will then fall back.

I know oil workers in the SL area who have confirmed there is a chronic shortgage of rigs in the area and Texas as a whole. I understand eme have to release their rigs after the next couple of tests which means no forward drilling plan.":bonk:


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## Agentm

mck, no one seems to want to discuss it, i will have a go if you like..

"The Austin Chalk is a brittle carbonate reservoir that outcrops across Texas and trends south-west to north-east. The chalk is made up of very fine, densely packed calcareous shells and is therefore an impermeable layer. In the subsurface the Chalk matrix has less than 3% porosity. Due to fracturing of the Chalk the porosity is increased by 2%-3%. It is mainly the increased permeability due to fracturing that makes the Austin Chalk a good reservoir rock wherever these fractured-zone “sweet spots” are encountered."

remeber couch oil and the jvps have all confirmed the overpressurised chalks have high matrix porosity, 9 - 12 %!!! 


The sugarkane chalks are considered by adi to be:


"The Sugarkane area is still in the earliest stages of
appraisal. However, it appears to be over-pressured,
have relatively high matrix porosity, contain >150bbls
of condensate per MMCF of gas, and be vertically
fractured – all of which are strongly positive signs for
potential commerciality. The reason why the play had
been overlooked to date is due to the overall paucity
of wells on this trend, the fact that Sugarkane is some
20km south of the main Austin Chalk trend, and the
traditional thinking that the Chalk is a relatively low
productivity reservoir when compared to other reservoirs​targeted by previous wells drilled in this area."


and in respect to why they are fracing, unlike the giddings and pearsall where only natural fractures are the precursor for success, what your not taking into account is this i think:


"Based on limited horizontal drilling results reported
to date in a neighbouring lease within the Sugarkane
area, it would appear that vertical fractures have been
encountered there which would significantly improve
the flow potential and well economics of this play.
However, this still needs to be confirmed by production
testing and further appraisal drilling to determine
the existence of these fractures across the wider
Sugarkane area including the Sugarloaf AMI. This is​
also one of the key objectives of the Kennedy-1H wel"


adi are implying that natural fractures would improve economics, and are not saying its the critical factor in success..



"It is worthwhile noting that vertical fracturing is a
crucial factor in the success of Austin Chalk wells in
the established fields to the north due to their relatively
lower matrix porosity in the Chalk when compared to
the Sugarkane area.
If the Sugarkane area proves to be successful, that
is if the horizontal wells deliver an economic return,
prospective reserves are estimated to be in the range
of 600 BCFE to 1 TCFE for the Sugarloaf AMI alone in​
which Adelphi owns a 20% working interest."


i have been saying all along these chalks are unique, until you throw off your traditional hat and actually read and listen to what is being said its easy to miss, you cant compare giddings chalks to these, they are different, but these chalks are unique in that they can be fraced to produce, they may not nessesarily need natural fractures like BUR needs in all their wells.. IMHO the work done at Kunde 1 and SL1 is based on TCEi and CP trying to see if they can just fracturing a vertical chalks well, and be able to produce great wells.. its completely against the odds to produce commercial wells on the vertical, yet right now we have kunde 1 doing so, and SL1 is about to flow test zone 3 on the vertical.. most people seem to think this is all hot air, a fairy tale, and that the sugarkane is nothing at all. its only one third of the 3 zones of interest, with zone 1 being a producer and zone 3 about to be flow tested at SL1. remember we are talking verticals in the chalks here!!!




flintoff. your not even remotely funny. 


all imho and dyor


----------



## cicak_kupang

e mail to ADI this morning came back with what i thought it woulkd say, however sounds like testing at SL after K1H is only..." if appropriate"
interesting........

FW: SL project 
Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2007 10:50:31 +0800 
From: "Chris Hodge" <chris@adelphienergy.com.au>  Add to Address Book 
To: cicak.biru@yahoo.com.au 


M

There are no further wells planned until we finish the test of K1H and then SL (*if appropriate).*
Forward program will hang off those results and to some extent, the result of the wells next door being drilled / tested by EME.

Regards

Chris Hodge 



From: M S [mailto:cicak.biru@yahoo.com.au] 
Sent: Thursday, 22 November 2007 7:42 AM
To: Lauren Doust
Subject: SL project


Good Morning ADI,

                             Are you able to tell me what the forward programme for the SL AMI in which we are part off, following SL 1and K1H?

Are you planning further wells...? and what time schedule is any future plan likely to have...?



                 Many thanks  M s


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## Evangeline

Is that Kunde 3 they are refering to as the well next door/owned by eme?

Why would it not prove to be "appropriate" to test S1....what are they saying....is it that if Kunde 3 and Kennedy are tested they will know the story and will not need to test S1...

A lot is hanging on Kunde 3 and Kennedy then...


----------



## barney

Evangeline said:


> Is that Kunde 3 they are refering to as the well next door/owned by eme?
> 
> Why would it not prove to be "appropriate" to test S1....what are they saying....is it that if Kunde 3 and Kennedy are tested they will know the story and will not need to test S1...
> 
> A lot is hanging on Kunde 3 and Kennedy then...




Hi Eva,   I think that pretty much sums it up.  I think they believe/know they are on to something, and the only reason they would need to test the upper zones of SL1 would be if Kennedy was a failure (doubt that will be the case), and need to get additional information.  
My take on it is that they are very confident of the upper zones in SL1 ... Kennedy is showing signs of "proving" their beliefs ... If K gives the results that they are confident of, then the shows which were indicated in SL1 during drilling will be deemed to be "proven" without further testing, and a drilling plan will be on for young and old .............. Its going to be drawn out a bit and patience will probably be required, but this play is showing great potential.  Many will jump ship I'm sure through impatience and lack of conviction ............. Until K and SL1 are proven duds, I'm in for the payday down the track ............... Bit like the Pantene ad ............. "It won't happen overnight .............. but it will happen" .............. For me, if it fails, I'm a "dead duck" ............... when I look back in 2009 will I be a "duck" ...... I don't think so ............... but .........  If I end up being a duck, I'll take it on the "beak" and move on !! ....  Good luck to the "faithful".


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## Evangeline

Thanks Barney....yep..seems rational to me...why bother with testing zone 1 if kennedy is what they think......makes me think they really haven't let on how confident they are about the drilling of kennedy in recent anns......fingers crossed everyone!


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## Gspot

Evangeline said:


> Thanks Barney....yep..seems rational to me...why bother with testing zone 1 if kennedy is what they think......makes me think they really haven't let on how confident they are about the drilling of kennedy in recent anns......fingers crossed everyone!




Why are they still keeping it all secret...IF they are sooooo confident.
Are they still aquiring leases?????
Starting to get frustrated, after a year of waiting. Is good for CGTax though.


----------



## prawn_86

Admittedly I have not done a lot of research on this stock,

But i would urge caution for a stock to have been rumoured to have such a 'massive' amount under its belt and to not have done too much on the price side of things.

Companies managers will always be optimistic, its thier job. IMO if they were sitting on such potential there should have been a bigger rise over the last couple years, or at least a few different funds buying into them.

But thats just my


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## Evangeline

Well there have been several funds bought into this stock....in fact around 60% is tightly held by the top 20 shareholders...most of whom are funds...like anz nominees...trojan.....SG Growth....Tricom Nominees....heaps of them and a few individuals.

When you consider that there are only about 100 million shares all up....then there aren't really very many out there to trade....


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## prawn_86

Well thats good for holders then IF they can get a run on, as it means it will move up (or down) quickly.


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## Agentm

Gspot said:


> Why are they still keeping it all secret...IF they are sooooo confident.
> Are they still aquiring leases?????
> Starting to get frustrated, after a year of waiting. Is good for CGTax though.




looked hard at the leases today, yes there are leases still available, right between kunde and SL and to the north a touch, these guys are holding out.. but all are leasing to TCEI in the end, its amazing to watch over the last year!!

its absolutely critical to ADI not to talk this up, they have 2 reasons, one is corporate watchdogs, the other is conocophillips.

once the kunde 3 and 2 wells test, the cats out of the bag, then we will learn of the zone 3 flow test, followed by our kennedy well. IMHO the sp is a rock solid bargain right now. unless we get a major correction, this is as cheap as it gets..

you all would have noticed the 1 mill buy order on the EKAO's, there big confidence on the short term future as a good deal of positive news flow is very likely in the near term. i like their style,, i hope they pick it all up as the accumulators keep taking the shares from the impatient to the patient.

all the top holders of adi are increasing as we have all noticed..

getting closer to news day..  pity if your selling now, and good luck to them.. but its only weeks away,  such is life hey!


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## doctorj

Agentm, your name is very appropriate. This thread has more conspiracy theories than your average x-files episode.


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## prawn_86

I will certainly be watching with interest. If it is under $1 this time next year i'll officially call it a dud.

Good luck to holders


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## nioka

prawn_86 said:


> I will certainly be watching with interest. If it is under $1 this time next year i'll officially call it a dud.
> 
> Good luck to holders



 If it is under $1 in six months I'll call it quits.I'll call it quits if it doesn't have some good news very early in the new year. That won't be all I'll be calling it.


----------



## Evangeline

Yes..that 1 million order on the ekao's (the dead canaries as shares put it lol)....shows there is a lot of quiet interest and confidence that we will get good news in the short term.....it is "encouraging" to me anyway.

I'm too scared to get any more oppies with all the delays but the current sp of all the jvps is bargain basement and the news has gotten a lot more positive imo in the last couple of anns.

It seems M may be right about the operators learning a lot and drilling Kennedy with more control....its all gone well over there...no screenouts etc


----------



## Agentm

doctorj said:


> Agentm, your name is very appropriate. This thread has more conspiracy theories than your average x-files episode.





yet to see any conspiracy.

the well was to be a "closed well" as adi have said, the problem conocphillips have is that the asx has a lot of regulation on reporting.

this is how they reported a potential 3 tcf play last september..


_Wire-line logs were successfully run over the open hole section of the well between 6,500 feet (1,981 metres) and the present well depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres). _
_Interpretation of logs by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc, indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling in the secondary target (reported to the ASX on the 20th September 2006). _
_While Adelphi considers that the logs are encouraging the commercial significance of the log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing and there is a risk that the zone may not flow at commercial rates. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed. _
_The current operation at the well-site is the running of the 9-5/8 inch intermediate casing to present depth of 14,480 feet (4,413 metres). Once run and cemented, the well will continue drilling in 8-1/2 inch diameter hole to the primary target expected between approximately 17,000 feet (5,182 metres) and proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres). There is a further secondary target in carbonate rocks between present depth and just above the primary target. Assuming trouble-free drilling, the primary Hosston Formation target is expected to be reached in mid to late October and total depth in mid November. _
_ASX releases will continue to be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material matters which require an earlier release. _
_Commenting on the wire-line logging results, Chris Hodge, Adelphi’s exploration director said that "whilst the wire-line logging results appear to indicate the presence of hydrocarbon in the rocks, we will not fully understand the commercial significance until the zone is production tested at a later date, possibly with a different rig. Our immediate priority is to case off the 2,432 metres of open hole in order that we can drill to the main Hosston target without delay"_ 


did you see the fan fare?  the only real indication came from couch oil.. this was his take on it..




Sugarloaf – Hosston – 1st phase a success
We have dug the well to 14,480’ and logged the upper sections.
Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations.

*The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive.  The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone*. *The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.*

The Edwards is from 12,275’ to 14,000’ looks tight or too dense to produce.

The Sligo formation begans about 14,500’

The Hosston (Objective) begans at 17,000’ Planned total depth is 21,000’.

This morning they are running 9 5/8” casing to 14,480’


the conspiracy theory as others call it was this..

couch oil was directed to shut down the website by one of the partners, can anyone guess who had the clout to do that?

both couch oil and ADI were briefed by TCEI, they were both passing on information as they thought fit.  one obviously had  a directive to remain silent the other had not had such a directive.


ADi in their annual report has given an explanation for it.. it was no conspiracy, just operational proceedure as directed by conocphillips

_Based on the joint venture’s interpretation of this play’s_
_potential in the area combined with production and early_
_appraisal drilling results from the nearby Sugarkane Field_
_(which is operated by a major international oil and gas_
_company), our joint venture has successfully pursued_
_an aggressive leasing program which has resulted in our_
_acreage position having increased to over 20,000 acres_
_of mineral rights for the Austin Chalk play. We have also_
_now commenced the drilling of the first horizontal well_
_within our leases which is designed to provide further_​_critical reservoir and production data._
 


so although many see it as a conspiracy, it really wasnt, its just that in the O&G exploration game secrecy on a world class discovery like this is paramount, particularily in Texas. the lease buying operation was ongoing in any case, all of live oak was done by june 2006, the sugarloaf well had to be delayed while they got them,  then they continued into karnes county, in sept 06 they had a lot of acreages,, when couch oil put that report out it went all over the boards,, the texas landowners became aware of the play then.. and they have been slowely signing over to TCEI ever since,, still some more work to be done imho.

currently there is still a gag order on all wells. the directors of EME are not allowed to refer to their shareholders that conocophillips is the partner in their wells, and they are not allowed to use the true well names in their reporting.  you again may call that a conspiracy, but it really isnt, its just conocphillips protecting its interets whilst trying to secure leases on this entire discovery.

hope that clears up the misconception of any conspiracy


----------



## Gspot

Evangeline said:


> Yes..that 1 million order on the ekao's (the dead canaries as shares put it lol)....shows there is a lot of quiet interest and confidence that we will get good news in the short term.....it is "encouraging" to me anyway.
> 
> *I'm too scared to get any more oppies with all the delays but the current sp of all the jvps is bargain basement and the news has gotten a lot more positive imo in the last couple of anns.*
> It seems M may be right about the operators learning a lot and drilling Kennedy with more control....its all gone well over there...no screenouts etc




This is what has me worried. Bargain basement prices with confidence and results just around the corner. 
Nothing can be kept that quiet in any market....... from what I've seen.


----------



## Evangeline

But then look at what's just happened with fdl.....yesterday morning it was a 1c stock....now it has gained over 1000%.....why weren't those 'in the know' all over this one before news came out...and how about inp...


----------



## Agentm

interesting town perth is.

imho the programs are going fine. looking forward to the AGM today, and looking forward to those kunde well results, its the same chalks afterall.


----------



## cicak_kupang

Just looking at the AGM presentation from today. Noticed on pg 14, they are now not expecting to test/frac K1H till January now......should have seen that comming.....................  Other than that they arent giving to much away.  Other than Wisteria1 planned for 2008, there is an obvious lack of drilling.......keeping it that way planning for The year of the Sugarloaf maybe...?

Did anyone goto the AGM today?  How was the tone and choice of the words from the board?


----------



## Evangeline

M has been saying that he felt it unlikely that Kennedy would be fraced and tested till January - his reasoning being that they want to wait for the results of Kunde to be in, which will give them additional information on how to best design the frac for Kennedy.....patience patience and more patience seem to be required.

Hopefully it will all be worth the wait in the end.


----------



## Agentm

the agm was as tight as one would expect in the cirumstances.

nothing was being given away.

these best summarise the impressions.

For any long term holder what i think is about to be said would maybe give you some heart, maybe not.. as the majority of long term holders are not investing for timor sea nor yemen nor indonesia. and you can write off thailand. 

NT was mentioned again, they are forcing off the operator, its in litigation, so no comment can be made, but i am of the understanding that will continue for some months to come. (if its worth fighting for there must be something in it!)

interesting Chris said the top 50 shareholders hold 54% of the adi share, leaving 50 mill shares in smaller lots.. tightly held!

its unlikely there will be any change there, and the share has hardly been traded. just the usual low prices on offer for those with no patience or forced to sell for other reasons. great buying oppotunities on no news imho.

The all important frac, answered by ADI. january 2008, reasoning, they will wait for the other wells to frac and use their data and understandings to design the best possible frac for kennedy. I am fine with that!


Forward well program? they say they dont have one. well there would be one, but not able to be worked on until the kennedy well is on the go.

Whats happening? will they hammer the stock?

I gather those who are not patient will have to pay a low price as there is no reason for the SP to rocket with currnet news flow..

Primarily IMHO, the real deal is all about waiting a little more. TCEI/CP have now 3 wells to test, its understood kunde 2 is testing the zone 3 region. Kunde 3 is about to test, and we have Baker closing rapidly.

My impressions were that the JVP are uniform in their confidence on the potential. and they are all waiting and avoiding any new projects until they have reasonable confidence of commercial production from the current wells. How close is it? IMHO its very very close, testing of kunde 3 will be the start of things, then we have to complete kennedy !H, still to be announced when that will happen, but the well is not completed. once that happens its rig swapping time, workover rig to come through, then conditioning the well to be ready for the frac. january 08 is easily the right time frame.

Kunde 2 would be tested by then also, and that will give more info on zone 3. IMHO at SL1, they will test zone 2 then decide to go horizontal on whatever zone they want.


I cant see our JVP jumping forward and going into full development until two things happen.

1/ TCEI/CP have tested their well(s) and themselves undertaken a development of the sugarkane

2/ We have got kennedy 1H on production and can capital raise by debt and going to the market for the development of the 20,000 acres.

My impressions i gathered was that the most cautious and conservative outlook is being undertaken until the play is announced as a major discovery. its like a groom waiting for the bride, we have to be patient for the most important thing to arrive..

short term i imagine the kunde results will impact on the jvp's, its will confirm the potential of the horizontals, then in january the games begin as ADi will begin to talk seriously to the market on what its potential is. then i see only excellent days ahead as the sugarkane on our acreages becomes confirmed as productive..

my last impression is that conocophillips and TCEi are serious as ever on the play. and i will be holding for the outcome. 

lastly, in my view, the feeling adi have on their future is a lot clearer. Yemen and timor sea are now being worked harder, and new projects are being looked at by Bill Ashby. in terms of the feel about the future is that they have a good idea on how to develop the sugarkane with adi, and they have now decided to think about the furture projects and new projects ADI can take on board. I get the feeling the "groundhog days" of the last 18 months are numbered right now, all jvps are completely tied down in this sugarkane, but suddenly there is a change in the outlook for ADi imho.

i remain holding as before, for the outcome, and am glad that adi has timor sea and yemen ahead, and suagrkane is about to happen.

not long to go imho... not long at all..


----------



## Agentm

From the eka presentation

Potential reserve estimates from Operator (TCEI)


Total Sugarkane potential of Austin Chalk (upper Zone only)​ 
= 3 TCF & 500MMBC​ 



On this basis, Sugarloaf AMI upper zone=​ 
= 300BCF & 50 MMBC (800 BCFE)​ 



Net EKA reserve potential after royalties​ 
= 37 BCF & 6.25 MMBC (100 BCFE)​ 



Additional reserves potential in lower zones 2 & 3
(not included in estimates)​ 

nice points..​ 
they dont write off zone 3,, thats not a typing error!!!​ 
enjoy​


----------



## Evangeline

Hi M

Thanks for keeping up the posts....eka presentation looks very positive...a little movement on the sp at eka today too....worth the wait imho.....


----------



## Agentm

the sp of all the jvp's will remain as they are, or a touch down, until the market is aware of the second phase: horizontal success.

kunde 3 will soon be on production and then the zone 3 region will be tested by kunde 2, as EKA is rightly is pointing out, they know Zone 3 has potential and the two zones are potentially going to add significant value as they are tested. There is no doubt zone 1 is extremely promising, talk to anyone who knows this project and they have the same view, but views dont generate dollars, the value of ADi and the jvp's come as the wells begin to flow.  

A few cents up or down here is neither here nor there.. its doesnt imply success or failure of the sugarkane. We all are aware that the jvp's are going at great pains to point out that:

​​Sugarloaf-1 & Kennedy-1H logs and
shows similar to the Sugarkane discovery

no one really wants to debate this point, but the "me too" senario thats being said here is very important. the play is a stratographic trap.. very large, high porosity +6%, and over pressurised. its got very very high liquids.. and amazing reserves potential, i am certain the TCEi estimations are grossly underestimated.. so if this play happens, be prepared for some serious re evaluations.. there is no way conocophillips would allow the real potential of this play to be known right now..  we have been fed a nice conservative story on the 3tcf thing,, but i have no doubt that its way under the reality of what 6 -15% porosity can deliver..  but this is all really hypotheticals, we need a well, any well really to show us some potential.. If the screenout didnt happen i wonder  if we wouldnt be testing the zone 2 right now and not be talking a whole different ball game?

So how do you value that if there is no well producing?  simply put, you cant.  but as kunde 3 comes through you will see some changes imho. 

how long can we say its not long to go now? for any top 50 holder its not worth trashing the sp to get out, and i cant see anyone really jumping this far in.. but we saw yesterday some good buying, or great selling opportunity, an offer of 200k went through. nice buying, great strategy..

i have always had the plan to sit out the sugarkane and NT.. that plan stays,, but somehow NT will become insignificant in the scheme of things if the prospect is as good as the adi presentations suggest..

good luck if your still holding..​


----------



## vpayne

We know a lot about zone 1, and a lesser amount about zone 3 and in both cases about to learn a lot more. But what do we know or have hints about zone 2 apart from that it is very likely to contain hydrocarbons. Does anyone have any info?


----------



## Agentm

i was given the understanding all three zones are supposed to be equally charged, and equally prospective. 

Zone 1 was given the most attention so far, its very very early days.

in the presentations they specifically say that zone 2 and 3 are definately still on..


----------



## Lucky_Country

How long is a piece of string?
I fully understand why the delays but what is frustrating is not knowing when we will get results each time I think we get close another story for a delay!
Horizontal drill into each zone frac then flow test how hard is that?


----------



## Agentm

devon presentation a few years back, gives you an idea of the size and scope of a full field development

http://petersco.com/whatsnew/Devon Jan 07.pdf 


CUM. YEAR 2005 (BCF)
Top Ten Texas Gas Fields​ 

1. NEWARK EAST (BARNETT SHALE) 497
2. CARTHAGE (COTTON VALLEY) 214

3. GIDDINGS (AUSTIN CHALK) 106 
4. OAK HILL (COTTON VALLEY) 98
5. FREESTONE (BOSSIER/CV) 81
6. SPRABERRY TREND AREA 79
7. WASSON (SAN ANDRES) 78
8. SAWYER (CANYON) 75
9. BALD PRAIRIE (COTTON VALLEY) 55​
10. FARRAR (COTTON VALL 53


when you see that conocphillips and TCEi estimate the potential in zone one to be as substantial as >3 tcf , without the two zones added, it becomes evident why they are taking their time researching everything, making sure all is done meticulously and accurately, and the upside is perhaps a top 5 spot in texas for the field.. happily holding for the upside good news story, but also would like some good news soon.. 

patiently trying to hold here!!


i remember at the agm being said 6bcfe per well..  this is looking more interesting imho by the day ​


----------



## Evangeline

Very quiet here atm...any word on Kunde 3?

Interesting how AUT's sp is holding up the best in the current news blackout.  Nice 100k order on the bid this morning.

Agreed it would be good to get some news real soon!


----------



## Agentm

the AUT order has been there for days, below that there is nil.. EKAO has a 1 mill order there also then zip below it.. EKA has no orders to speak of.

ADI has mild support in the current price bracket imho. it fluctuates up and down.. 

there is little the jvp's holders can do. until the operational news is announced the buyers are going to show little interest, its great buying opportunity, but the sp is decreasing on tiny volumes, so IMHO its not a sign of anything untoward, its a case of no news and therefor no ability for the share to gain any value, so the buyers are smart and the sellers, if your unfortunate enough to have to sell now, they are not getting any good value at all.

whats about to happen in terms of news is a different story of course, i am waiting for the jvp to announce some insights into what its currently doing operationally. its possible for any of the following news stops/senarios to play out in the coming days.

SL1 flow tests Zone 3 results announced, maybe positive maybe negative

Kunde 3 frac tests and flows (confirming commercial horizontal wells producing in identical formation for the JVP) 

Kunde 2 is Frac tested and flows in what i believe to be Zone 3

longer term in terms of weeks, i see further results of kunde 3 coming, and that should start the action on the jvp deciding what to do in the future imho.. and kennedy will be fraced as quick as they can afterwards, once they know how to best approach the frac..


but it sure is very quiet around here..

Lucky_Country, in terms of how long things take on the horizontal, i wonder if they should rename the wells as follows

Sugarloaf 1 - Eternity 1
Kennedy 1H - Eternity 2H



it sure has beena long time, i noticed kunde 3 was equally long, and baker is doing alright.. but no record breaking wells thats for sure. 

maybe there is something down there making the job difficult, so maybe think lateral and read between the lines a little.. imho if they finished the drill on time then there would have been cause for alarm, these formations are overpressurised. in a big way.. perhaps that has something to do with the delays! its enough to keep me solid in this share!!


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> ADI has mild support in the current price bracket imho. it fluctuates up and down..
> 
> there is little the jvp's holders can do. until the operational news is announced the buyers are going to show little interest, its great buying opportunity, but the sp is decreasing on tiny volumes, so IMHO its not a sign of anything untoward,



Next technical support for ADI is down around 35 cents. Once it broke what looks to be critical support at 50, there was a high probability of a drop to this level. Now, on the way back up, 50 is likely to provide some significant resistance. 

Fundamentally may be a buying opportunity, except it hasn't developed any fundamentals yet. Just seems to have exploration potential at the moment.


----------



## Agentm

interesting chart, i am no chartist, have to take what your saying on board.

My own view is that the down trend has limited days if the news from the region begins to filter through. IMHO there is more a possibilty of some great short term news flows in the kunde 3 and SL1 well results, but we have to wait and see. if they come through it may not reach the lows you mentioned  

but my aim is to see the project through, risk reward,, we are still in the risk area as you rightly point out kenna. and on low volumes the sp deminishes,, i am of the opinion that with any news the jvp's will fire up rapidly and make healthy recoveries.

patiently waiting.. (as best as you can i guess)


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> i wonder if they should rename the wells as follows
> 
> Sugarloaf 1 - Eternity 1
> Kennedy 1H - Eternity 2H




Why not;

Sugarloaf 1 -Groundhog 1

Kennedy 1H - Groundhog Revisited.
I can't remember the end of the groundhog day movie. Did they ever get to the next week? I got a bit bored with it and turned off. Can anyone help with the ending. It may be an omen.


----------



## prawn_86

Yep, seems to be a hell of a lot of talk and no action. Just like a lot of oilers.

I find it interesting that you see delays as a good sign Agent


----------



## Agentm

its just my own view,

i look at it this way, if the formation dint have anything in it, then the well would be complete, but it seems that all the horizontals have had a heck of a time trying to get to completion. i think the wells are everything that conocphillips TCEI think they are. My investment remains as long as they are developing the field, and we know 16 wells are already planned..

i have heard a few stories on the kunde 3 wells, and i think kennedy is experiencing the same delays they did for the same reasons. Now kunde 3 was eventually able to be completed, and will test very shortly. my thinking is that knowing the formation we are in is identical to the formation kunde 3 is in, and seeing both wells going through pergitory to be completed, then as far as i am concerned, and its just my view on this, i think the possibilty of the formation producing at similar rates to the identical formation in the kunde wells is also on the cards..

after all, they believe this to be an extremely large overpressurized stratographic play with some amazing matix porosity numbers.. these wells are kicking back and making life extremely difficult for the operator.  

i dont think anyone relishes these delays at all, but i believe the major holders are holding and dont give it much thought really. the big picture stuff is what we all hold for..


----------



## gdaf

question: a.Who owns the Kunde wells that are about to be tested
b. when will they be tested?
c. have you got some sort of illustration or confirmation quoted by the respective companies that shows the Kunde wells current due for testing are in the same formation (not doubting your statement, just want to see it for myself)


----------



## Agentm

most people would look at those questions and wonder what your asking..

i know exactly where your coming from..

The kunde wells are owned by conocophillips. with other parties in the well, I believe TCEI has a stake, and EME has a farm in (on the well only.) 

EME announced the kunde wells would be tested shortly a month ago. so very soon imho..

re the same zone, this is mentioned in the quarterly:

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...ober 2007 - Quarterly Report 30 Sept 2007.pdf

The Kennedy 1H exploration well, located some 1,600m from Sugarloaf-1, was spudded on 17 September and is designed to test the uppermost zone of the Austin Chalk Formation – the same zone that is productive in the Sugarkane Field discovery well some 8km to the west. Kennedy 1H is the first horizontal well targeting the Austin Chalk within Adelphi’s Sugarloaf leases and its 5,000 feet horizontal section is designed to provide critical reservoir data.
illustrated in the sept presentation:  slide 9

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...lphi Investor Presentation September 2007.pdf


thats how i see it.. hope it helps


----------



## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:

   06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
                         anticipates the good news ... ???

   14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
   with positive news expected, on the summer solstice  20122007 ... 

January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
for ADI, until about 25012008.

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## tomcat

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
> as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:
> 
> 06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
> anticipates the good news ... ???
> 
> 14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
> with positive news expected, on the summer solstice  20122007 ...
> 
> January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
> for ADI, until about 25012008.
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====





Paul,

I have never really had a chance to look at how you model your work...you have been particularly right with ADI in the past, with Agent even wondering if you are god.

Hope you are...ADI could do with a little luck and some positives cycles, I think you are right though...news is just around the corner.


----------



## Agentm

tomcat said:


> Paul,
> 
> I have never really had a chance to look at how you model your work...you have been particularly right with ADI in the past, with Agent even wondering if you are god.
> 
> Hope you are...ADI could do with a little luck and some positives cycles, I think you are right though...news is just around the corner.





he is god... i am certain of it.. how can anyone post all those things and get away with it? if i posted that i would be a ramper.. we all know god isnt a ramper. therefor he is god!

thanks again for the predictions,, they match up perfect to what i think will happen.. how on earth you do it i have not a clue.. jesus...

ahh  sorry,, i meant christ

ahh god i did it again.. jesus..  i mean hell i am sorry..


----------



## Trader Paul

tomcat said:


> Paul,
> 
> I have never really had a chance to look at how you model your work...you have been particularly right with ADI in the past, with Agent even wondering if you are god.
> 
> Hope you are...ADI could do with a little luck and some positives cycles, I think you are right though...news is just around the corner.






Definitely *NOT* God, Tomcat ...  

..... just another sinner, using God's gift to all traders ... His own
cosmic clock and associated time cycles ... !~!

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## mfunksta

Anyone else wondering where the weekly update has gone?  Great to hear that positive news is coming.


----------



## prawn_86

Lol, it always makes me laugh when co's provide consistent weekly updates.

Blatant ramping from management imo, as sometimes nothing at all changes in a week or even a month.


----------



## Agentm

mfunksta

i dont think adi are doing weeklies, they have told the market the kennedy well situation, so nothing to report really..

i agree prawn, some companies have used weeklies to blatantly ramp their finds, thankfully adi and this jvp never took that course at all, just kept the market informed of progress.


----------



## Agentm

kenna

how does the charting look with adi now.

i see two distinct upsides coming in the near term myself. 

first one i see is the the immediate response to the kunde 3 well thats in the exact same formation a few miles west. if the well fracs as its expected to in the very immediate future, the upside on a great well will have a flow on effect imho. 

the second one i think will follow or perhaps come with the first, that would be the conocphillips TCEI annoucing along with EME the play as a "discovery". and perhaps extrapolating a little on how they view the discovery.. again that news will have a flow on effect onto the jvp imho.

can the charts have indicators or trends earlier before such events are announced to point to expectations like this, do they indicate buying interest for instance?

dont know if read this thread a lot, but would be interested in your views..


----------



## prawn_86

im not really much of a chartist, but i know that buying interest can be represented by increased volume. Although this can also represent selling interest, so you need to look at the daily moves.

IE - an decent % up day (relative to the stock) with nice volume _could _indicate buying

im sure someone else can elaborate further and better than I


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> kenna
> 
> how does the charting look with adi now.



Still shoddy. Needs to start making some higher lows and highs, and get back through 50 resistance. 

Charts on explorers, low volume, or news responsive stocks are a little less reliable than blue chips in my experience, so I don't rate the probabilities of S&R, or TA formations playing the game that highly. As you say, a major discovery could blow any resistance out of the water. Or alternatively, bad news, support! Not many companies can keep news a secret though so the price action can determine which was a stock is headed, but it's not always the case. As far as people getting set for news goes, yes if there's high expectations of a good find. (See the EGO chart for a good example of that ) However, if news is just OK, or as expected, then 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' is a big possibility (See BMN chart for that )


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> kenna
> 
> how does the charting look with adi now.
> 
> i see two distinct upsides coming in the near term myself.
> 
> first one i see is the the immediate response to the kunde 3 well thats in the exact same formation a few miles west. if the well fracs as its expected to in the very immediate future, the upside on a great well will have a flow on effect imho.
> 
> the second one i think will follow or perhaps come with the first, that would be the conocphillips TCEI annoucing along with EME the play as a "discovery". and perhaps extrapolating a little on how they view the discovery.. again that news will have a flow on effect onto the jvp imho.
> 
> can the charts have indicators or trends earlier before such events are announced to point to expectations like this, do they indicate buying interest for instance?
> 
> dont know if read this thread a lot, but would be interested in your views..




Hi Agent,  Just about to post but Kennas beat me to it ……… I’ll post it anyway since I’ve already written it …….. …. 
We all know the chart on ADI has not been pretty, ….. BUT, the last three days candles represents some positivety in the sense that the selling appears to have slowed/reversed for the moment. As Prawn says, volume will be the key to any serious moves, ………. ADI is moved by news more than fundamentals/technicals, so until we get the news we are after, technicals won’t make a lot of sense.

The real action (volume) started back in early October at about the same SP levels we are currently at so we could assume that unless we get bad news, the SP should be reasonably stable atm (larger support level at around 35 cents, hopefully we won’t drop that far).  Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

thanks for the replies..

all good info, so the real consensus is without news driven buying the share is vunerable to trending down slowely or staying roughly where it is..  and of course bad news will always do what it will to any share..

at best the chart can indicate support levels, but not much more can be relied on.. i was watching the trades yesterday, anyone notice the entire day the trades were eithe 25,000 or 2 derivitives of that volume..


----------



## Logique

Those still holding ADI, are presumably believers. I have taken the view, why bother getting out now. It might as easily jump above 0.50 as drift in a range 0.30 to 0.40 until announcements come through. It's a news driven stock, not TA driven.  

I never expected it to behave like a bank stock.

All I would say technically, is that you would expect less Sell volume and less volatility from here, a lot of the short termers have gone by now. Technically, there's volume, and then there's volume indicators, and these latter do look encouraging for ADI.  

Keep plugging away Agent. I have no intention of logging in one day to see that stock I gave up on has jumped 200% on an announcement.


----------



## Agentm

this one wont make it jump, but at least kennedy is finished and Sl1 is firing up!!

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Kennedy #1H Well
The 4-1/2 inch liner has been run to a Total Depth of 16,530 feet and been cemented in place. Operations continue to prepare the well for the planned extensive fracture stimulation testing program.
As previously advised, the interpretation of the logs indicates several extended zones of potential pay in the upper part of the Austin Chalk and are encouraging in their own right. As this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play it will require the careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the testing program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks.

Sugarloaf-1 Well
Since our last report completion tubing has been re-run and testing has just begun. Early swabbing has recovered hydrocarbons. The significance of the hydrocarbons cannot be determined until the well has stabilized and the test has run for an extended period.


----------



## tomcat

Agentm said:


> this one wont make it jump, but at least kennedy is finished and Sl1 is firing up!!
> 
> Sugarloaf-1 Well
> Since our last report completion tubing has been re-run and testing has just begun. Early swabbing has recovered hydrocarbons. The significance of the hydrocarbons cannot be determined until the well has stabilized and the test has run for an extended period.




I like the fact they have recovered hydrocarbons at SL1...looking forward to hearing more on that. Cant wait to hear how the Kunde testing goes.


----------



## cicak_kupang

Im really begining to think that Z3 may be a goer in SL....and im sure that the jvp's wouldnt be stuffin around with it if it was otherwise.
Wonder if there is any chance that they will but a horizontal in Z3 some day? 
I view todays announcement as positive and they are sounding upbeat about the  K1H with the "upper sections in their own right"   I understand that to mean they may have drilled into some of the natural fractures.

Liked how they mentioned that the testing of K1H  is the early stage of testing a new stratographic play .....thats postitive....


----------



## Agentm

last time the flow went they gave all sorts of measurements, this time there are none, so they are saying precious little, and they are not saying the well flowed like last time either, so what it did is now up for speculation. i am very curious how the extended testing gets going and what they tell from it.

cicak

your starting to understand something here i see, good pick up, they are going to use the "stratographic play" line in all thier announcements,, its been creeping in more and more, IMHO they use it to let the market know the potential of the play in the kunde wells will equally be feasable in the 20,000 acres we have.

all in all the announcement has a lot of positives in it, the Sl1 well is firing up and the kennedy well is ready.. and in the short term i am happy to learn more on zone 3.


----------



## fflintoff

cicak_kupang said:


> Im really begining to think that Z3 may be a goer in SL....and im sure that the jvp's wouldnt be stuffin around with it if it was otherwise.
> Wonder if there is any chance that they will but a horizontal in Z3 some day?
> I view todays announcement as positive and they are sounding upbeat about the  K1H with the "upper sections in their own right"   I understand that to mean they may have drilled into some of the natural fractures.
> 
> Liked how they mentioned that the testing of K1H  is the early stage of testing a new stratographic play .....thats postitive....




ADI AGM Presentation Horizontal under consideration as you rightly surmise:-

“SL Lower zone produced measureable
hydrocarbons in vertical hole – could improve
in horizontal & encouraging for the overlying
play in the chalk in the SL area.”

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...mber 2007 - Adelphi 2007 AGM Presentation.pdf


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> this one wont make it jump, but at least kennedy is finished and Sl1 is firing up!!
> 
> SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
> Kennedy #1H Well
> The 4-1/2 inch liner has been run to a Total Depth of 16,530 feet and been cemented in place. Operations continue to prepare the well for the planned extensive fracture stimulation testing program.
> As previously advised, the interpretation of the logs indicates several extended zones of potential pay in the upper part of the Austin Chalk and are encouraging in their own right. As this horizontal well represents the early stage in the appraisal of a new reservoir and stratigraphic play it will require the careful selection of a fracture stimulation program to optimise the flow and recoverability of any hydrocarbons. As such, the testing program at Kennedy is not likely to commence for several weeks.
> 
> Sugarloaf-1 Well
> Since our last report completion tubing has been re-run and testing has just begun. Early swabbing has recovered hydrocarbons. The significance of the hydrocarbons cannot be determined until the well has stabilized and the test has run for an extended period.




Intertesting post about swabbing from advfn


quattro44 - 6 Dec'07 - 22:16 - 6409 of 6409  (premium)


Swabbing is always done through tubing with a packer on the end just above the potential zone. That way you only need to pull out a (relatively)small amount of well fluid in order to reduce the hydrostatic head above the formation. By having a packer and circulating valve down there you can easily control the well and ultimately circulate to kill it again before pulling tubing out of the hole to start the next zone.
When they state that they are waiting for the well to stabilize, they are waiting to see how the well performs over a period of time. It may flow for a short time and die. It may start flowing slowly and then increase and then stabilize at a constant rate, it may then start to reduce again. Whatever, they are looking to see what happens over a few days. This will tell them a great deal about the well, and even if the well only produces small amounts of hydrocarbon and may well eventually die, it does not mean that the well is duff. You just need the best way to get it out. Of course, it could actually be duff as well!
I have tested wells where only about 100 feet of oil flowed above the perfs and then stopped. Once stimulated and pumps installed they have flowed constantly at hundreds of barrels per day.


----------



## Agentm

hey tarz.

i like the way these jvps are situated. imho they are the luckiest bunch of unlikely companies in texas..

how the heck they got into this is amazing me.. and to most out there they have no idea what i am talking about..

i am absolutely 100% looking forward to the coming weeks.. if they fracing get on with things that is..


----------



## Agentm

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
> as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:
> 
> 06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
> anticipates the good news ... ???
> 
> 14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
> with positive news expected, on the summer solstice 20122007 ...
> 
> January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
> for ADI, until about 25012008.
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul
> 
> 
> 
> =====





i dont know how you do it..

you are going to be spot on this time.. absolutely on the money.

lets begin with next week..  monday the anticipation as you call it will happen.. i totally agree, i expect a lot of interest in the ADI share.

Tuesday- Wednesday 13122007 ADI will benifit from news, and i see the steady lift in the prices on those days for sure.. big time..

the 3 positive cycles from thursday are also evident to me..

as i say,  i dont know how you do it, but your going to be on the money.

can i ask if you actually trade on these predictions?


----------



## fflintoff

7 December 2007
ConocoPhillips Approves 2008 Capital Budget of $14.3 Billion. 

“In the U.S. Lower 48, the company intends to spend about $3.3 billion, primarily on its ongoing development programs, including those in the Bossier and Lobo trends and the San Juan, Permian, Fort Worth and Piceance basins. Funds also will be spent on the development of new projects, including the Rockies Express natural gas pipeline project.”

http://www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/news_releases/2007news/12-07-2007.htm


----------



## Agentm

pretty good so far..

well done trader paul..   now for the second part


even in a day like today, the sp is lifting as you said it would..

tomorrow is the 13th..  unlucky for some..  but then again, maybe lucky for others.. and imho


----------



## tomcat

Hey Paul,

Looking forward to the cycles and the stars coming together for ADI over the next month....do you have a mid range projection for this stock through 2008?  

I think the long term cycles should have it around $10 by 2009...assuming conoco havent bought them out 

Cheers
Tom


----------



## Agentm

Kennedy #1H Well​ 
A 4-1/2 inch liner was cemented in the horizontal section of the Kennedy well and the drilling rig was released on 8 December 2007. The operator intends to run a radial bond log to assess the cement job before finalising plans for an extensive fracture stimulation program and test operations on the well. It is likely that these operations will start early in the new year.​ 
Sugarloaf-1 Well​ 
Since our last report, completion tubing has been re-run and flow testing of the deepest of the three zones of interest in the Austin Chalk has continued. Swabbing and short periods of natural flow have recovered small quantities of gas and condensate together with fracture stimulation and work fluids. The operator has advised that the test program will include further swabbing before shutting in the well for a seven day pressure build up test. An electronic pressure gauge assembly has been deployed by wireline. Further work on this zone will be dependent on the analysis of the test and other data.​ 

interesting that they have changed the well design at kennedy,  initially they had planned to keep that liner uncemeneted, now they have replicated kunde 3 and i see they have also replicated the other words that Kunde 3 has all over it 

"an extensive fracture stimulation program and test operations on the well"

IMHO they are replicating kunde 3 in every respect..

the SL1 well keeps holding their attention, they are keen as to test the so called zone 3 or whatever you want to call it..

only thing i am interested in currently is the kunde 3 frac, somehow it dwarfs any frac test i have ever heard of..


----------



## fflintoff

Burlington is peppering South Texas with 14000ft horizontal wells. New Hooks well 14 Dec 2007. De Witt county is next to Karnes.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/viewW1PdfFormAction.do?submit=w1Pdf


----------



## Father Ted

fflintoff said:


> Burlington is peppering South Texas with 14000ft horizontal wells. New Hooks well 14 Dec 2007. De Witt county is next to Karnes.
> 
> http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/viewW1PdfFormAction.do?submit=w1Pdf




And your point is what exactly? - that the sugarkane extends that far?

I suppose if Conoco started drilling off Craggy Island - you would report that as well!

Lets get back to reality shall we!

lol

ft


----------



## Agentm

in 1993 an earthquake, the largest in texas, was caused by the slip in the fashing fault, that fault a little north of the wells we are drilling.

there are papers from academics on the causes of the fault slip, one is that it was caused by the fashing fields depleting the reserves as a contributor. 

whats significant about it is that there are wells in the 70's that didnt show anything, and since those two wells, nothing went into the chalks until a little theory on the edwards was being looked into by burlington TCEI with kunde 1. today we have wells now either side of those wells that are showing something amazing.. 

This play, this unconventional play has some amazing history alright, and this unconventional play landed in all our laps, including pioneers in the south imho. 

what conoco is doing right now, the reasoning for them spending the 100's of millions on this moment, is to explore and understand and develop the cretaceuos zones that are charged up and overpressurised, as difficult and unpedictable the play is, its very evident that this play has conoco's undivided attention and a sizable and significant percentage of its 2008 exploration budget!

this play went from a look at the edwards by burlington, into a unconventional discovery thats absolutely staggering everyone right now in texas.

some of the biggest discoveries have been made in unconventional plays. and i am happily holding whilst this one is being explored by our jvp and Conocophillips!


----------



## gdaf

I read that Kunde 3 well was being fracced over the last weekend.... when are where are we going to learn the results of this frac job?


----------



## Trader Paul

Trader Paul said:


> Posted 05122007:
> 
> Hi folks,
> 
> ADI ... looks like the lows will be confirmed over the next couple of weeks,
> as some VERY POSITIVE cycles come out to play:
> 
> 06-13122007 ... steady lift in prices, as market
> anticipates the good news ... ???
> 
> 14-24122007 ... strong rally, as 3 positive time cycles take affect,
> with positive news expected, on the summer solstice  20122007 ...
> 
> January 2008 should see underlying positive sentiment
> for ADI, until about 25012008.
> 
> happy days
> 
> paul
> 
> =====






Hi folks,

ADI ... wide bid/offer spread, as market anticipates news,
expected 20122007, as posted above ... 

have a great day

  paul



=====


----------



## Agentm

paul,

your doing it again, somehow theres a good chance your predictions are going to be astrnomically close..


----------



## daeff

How do you do it??? 

I guess we will wait and see what happens on Kunde 3 tonight but alas I will not be holding my breath....although you have just given us the date....


----------



## Logique

20122007 our time? or Texas time I wonder. 
I will say that the sellers side looks thin at the close today, and plenty of buyers through the depth.


----------



## Agentm

i give up on dates, theres every chance at any moment something can go wrong.. as i have said before, expect delays, plan for them then add some more for good measure.. 

that kunde 3 well was started in march 07!! can anyone remember when kennedy started?? sept 26..

on 7th November BUR started Jet 3... and its about to go on production..

i am not complaining at all, as i fully undersatnd why this is happening.. but these wells are very unique in every respect, there isnt one thing going on in these wells that you would do in traditional chalks!


----------



## jackohelp

I have been planning for delays on this project since sept 2006. How much planning can you do before you say enough?


----------



## Agentm

jacko, i think for you guys the waiting is practically over
for me its going to be very interesting as to how things pan out in the next few days and weeks


----------



## Agentm

just thought i would put up a little something for the uk guys..

i aint saying anything other than if you look at kunde 2 you will notice something about the bottom hole coordinates on both those kunde 2 permits..

interesting workings on those kunde wells imho.. 

hope things pan out as pauls summer solstice prediction says..


----------



## nioka

Logique said:


> 20122007 our time? or Texas time I wonder.
> I will say that the sellers side looks thin at the close today, and plenty of buyers through the depth.



 Must be Texas time ADI down 4c or 9% today. No announcements to cause it. Looks like we wait until tomorrow. Groundhog day  !!!!!!!!!


----------



## Agentm

the buyers are real clever right now.. without news the sellers are at their mercy..

its great to see.. really good to see the buyers make each one of them pay big time..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Smart buyers for sure getting there share at almost the same price I paid 18 months ago or maybe I wasnt such a smart buyer.
Well hopefully they wont have too wait as long as some of the hardy shareholders for positive definative news.
Look forward too the new year and increased news flow


----------



## fflintoff

PIONEER NATURAL RES. USA, INC.

FILER Dec 20, 2007 1:02 PM]: Filing to Recomplete to a vertical wildcat. 14000ft Live Oak

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/300000-399999//PR0000396916_0001.pdf


----------



## tomcat

Interesting point from HC:

4.5 inch casing
Forum: ASX - By Stock (Go Back)
Code: ADI - ADELPHI ENERGY LIMITED (Google ADI) 
21/12/07 11:57 (View)	  Back  	 	Post Reply	Options:	
resourceboom
Post #: 2403747
Start of thread: 
IP: 119.11.xxx.xxx
Sentiment: Buy
Disclosure: Stock Held
Views: 22


anyone take any interest in the casing at Kennedy 1H using 4.5 inch pipe. seems quite large according to the azz folks,

eg from AZZ thread:

"The announcement they have run 4.5" casing at JHF indicates expectation of a large volume of gas, otherwise 2.3/8" casing would save a bundle is my advice"


----------



## Agentm

4.5 inch?? sound like a perfect size liner for the type of wells these guys have built..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well AgentM must be on holiday I'm affraid I cannot give you the great commentry he does but then again none of us ADIans can!
A poor close for us holders but a great buying opportunity for those who think we are on a winner.
The drip feed scenario is killing the patience of some if not most holders.
2008 I hope should start well with the imminent fracing of K1 hopefully Kunde has been fraced with flow results due out any time soon those should give the sp a real boost but in all feel it maybe 6 months before we really know what we got


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## Agentm

Kennedy #1H Well
A 4-1/2 inch liner was cemented in the horizontal section of the Kennedy well and the drilling rig was released on 8 December 2007. The operator intends to run a radial bond log to assess the cement job before finalising plans for an extensive fracture stimulation program and test operations on the well. It is likely that these operations will start early in the new year.​ 
and still nothing happens!!​ 
so whats the go there? why not get it happening?​


----------



## fflintoff

View from q44 on ADVFN that they will wait to frac all wells before assessing and announcing:-

quattro44 - 30 Dec'07 - 11:03 - 8575 of 8575

"They would only stop for an hour or 2 on Cristmas Day on a drilling rig if practical. If a frac job would naturally fall on Christmas Day then they might wait a day.
I reckon they will wait to frac all wells before assessing and announcing.
q44."


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well lets hope we dont have too wait too much longer we have waited long enough and seen our investments drop.
1 year ago ADI was trading a $1 now its not even half that.definately time to repay the faithfull


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## banska bystrica

All the research in the world doesn't change the fact that this is on shore Texas and as such, very very tricky. The market is not stupid and the facts are the Operator hasn't been able to get commercial flow yet. They may not ever get commercial flow. I see further delays and this could still not be concluded in 2008. Agentm seems to have lived his life for ADI but that in itself will not get the wells to flow. Never fall in love with a stock! ADI has taught plenty a harsh lesson.


----------



## Agentm

sorry sushi, just an investor waiting for an outcome, ​ 


Sugarloaf Area (SL)​

• The play and potential remains intact….​ 
High levels of activity in the adjacent area​ 
SL Lower zone produced measureable
hydrocarbons in vertical hole – could improve
in horizontal & encouraging for the overlying
play in the chalk in the SL area​ 
We have yet to flow test the main zone
The challenge for us is to produce hydrocarbons from
these Chalk rocks at commercial rates – and to
appraise and develop the acreage under lease in a​
reasonable time-frame.


----------



## banska bystrica

I see problems with cash for ADI. The longer this all takes, the greater chance they will need to raise funds sooner rather than later. Drilling and fraccing in Texas is not cheap and this complex set of wells will be costing plenty. ADI will be burning the cash pretty quickly. If Kennedy doesn't flow commercially quickly, ADI are caught between a rock and a hard place. There will be no flow and no cash. They will then ask shareholders to dip in more money and to do that in a depressed position will not be easy.
The next month or two will be critical. Get commercial flow from Kennedy and the shares climb back towards the 70c to $1.00 area. Don't get commercial flow and the market crucifies the ADI price to around 25c and then they have to raise money at 20c or less.


----------



## gdaf

i think you'll find that commercial flow at kenedy means a lot more to ADI's share price than 70c to 100c. But obviously we'll have to wait and see. Yes, there is a lot resting on this.


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## Agentm

q44 is incorrect

conocophilips allows all production wells and teams christmas and boxing day off, so sites like kunde 3 and 2 and 1 were on holidays, whereas Baker, which has a drilling team on it still worked.

kunde 3 is going through a complicated frac program, and conoco are taking their time, as with all things, there are delays and problems when dealing with these depths and an overpressurised formation. once the kunde wells are fraced they will either replicate or improve the program to the kennedy well.

i think what is being missed by many is the fact kennedy is on hold. many doubters out there are in disbelief that the sugarkane play is as potentially extensive as it is, and the sheer potential size of the play is currently ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls" please read the last agm presentation closely.

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...mber 2007 - Adelphi 2007 AGM Presentation.pdf

If you have read and understood the previous announcements, then you you can understand the critical facts are in play still.

Sugarkane and indeed all three zones are what a broker described perfectly recently as a "me too" formation. what they have in the kunde and baker wells is what we have in sugarloaf 1 and Kennedy 1H

The point being missed is that these identical formations are capable of producing some extremely enticing production, and without doubt the TCEI would be greatly underestimating when allowing figures like this out, ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls". I trust TCEI in their appraisals, i think they would have calculated the potential and downsized it with by the direction of and assistance by conocophillips.

So whats so important about the formations being identical in this stratographic play? It means ADI and the JVP's have been told by TCEI to save costs and alleviate replicating expensive research, they have opted to wait for the frac program in the identical formations in the kunde wells, thereby saving a lot of expense. the idea being if kunde flows, then absolutely kennedy will.

as for the false claims the operator has not got commercial flow from the formation, this is a totally false claim. The formation, sugarkane zone 1, has already got commercial flow from the vertical well in Kunde 1. and that well is choked back to the max.. The program at the moment is to construct horizontal wells to get fast payback and tap into the vast resource available to the jvp. just be wary if your researching the play and please read the adi presentation i posted above, it confirms the fact. there are people around desperately trying to cast seeds of doubt about right now, unable to post without personal remarks and attacks on anyone who posts on any forum, making wild claims on the financial viability of adi, and producing no evidence to back up the claims..look at what the poster is doing, assess the motivations.

*"Cash Position *
As at 30 September 2007, Adelphi’s cash reserves totaled some A$8.3 million. Of this amount US$2.84 million (approx. A$3.4 million) has been secured against Letters of Credit which have been issued by Adelphi in favor of the Yemen Government authorities, representing Adelphi’s minimum work obligations for Blocks 7 and 74"



"The challenge for us is to produce hydrocarbons from
these Chalk rocks at commercial rates – and to
appraise and develop the acreage under lease in a
reasonable time-frame."

*"Summary*
Company well placed for success
• Sugarloaf testing and Sugarkane drilling and
testing results imminent
• Yemen is looking highly prospective
• AC/P32 Wisteria prospect has matured nicely and
is on the verge of being farmed out
New ventures in South East Asia in progress
• Emphasis on near-term drilling activity" 


dyor, and dont believe simple one liners with no evidence to back them up.. 

this is an oil and gas explorer, always make your own risk reward assessments,

looking forward to the days ahead as tom kelly has recently announced.


----------



## banska bystrica

"the sheer potential size of the play is currently ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls"

Critical word there agentm is "POTENTIAL".

"If you have read and understood the previous announcements, then you you can understand the critical facts are in play still."

Agree it's still in play but time is money.

"what they have in the kunde and baker wells is what we have in sugarloaf 1 and Kennedy 1H"

Not necessarily.

"the idea being if kunde flows, then absolutely kennedy will."

False!! There are NO ABSOLUTES in oil and gas exploration. To say if Kunde flows, Kennedy ABSOLUTELY will is ridiculous. It "probably" will but no guarantee.

"as for the false claims the operator has not got commercial flow from the formation, this is a totally false claim."

The claim was ADI have got no commercial flow and that cannot be refuted. Right now, ADI have got zilch as far as commercial flow goes.

"As at 30 September 2007, Adelphi’s cash reserves totaled some A$8.3 million"

Three months later, how much do you think is left of that? How much is needed for the next three months? 

A reality check is needed for ADI holders. The Sugarloaf/Sugarkane could still be a company maker but it is far from certain as some people seem to think.


----------



## Agentm

""the sheer potential size of the play is currently ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls"

Critical word there agentm is "POTENTIAL"."

correct, the critical word is potential, and thats a damn sight more than 50 bcf!!


""If you have read and understood the previous announcements, then you you can understand the critical facts are in play still."

Agree it's still in play but time is money."


time is not money, time is time, saving money on designing a frac program from scratch is very clever.. the JVP has agreed to this, and any shareholder can exit if they chose.


"what they have in the kunde and baker wells is what we have in sugarloaf 1 and Kennedy 1H"

Not necessarily."

yes, absolutely..


""the idea being if kunde flows, then absolutely kennedy will."

False!! There are NO ABSOLUTES in oil and gas exploration. To say if Kunde flows, Kennedy ABSOLUTELY will is ridiculous. It "probably" will but no guarantee."

not correct, i can believe it will absolutely flow, and thast what i inevested for,  the frac program it designed to get great delivery from the identical formations in all the horizontals, it will flow if they get the frac sorted.  


""as for the false claims the operator has not got commercial flow from the formation, this is a totally false claim."

The claim was ADI have got no commercial flow and that cannot be refuted. Right now, ADI have got zilch as far as commercial flow goes."

your deluded in thinking ADI is the operator, ADi is part of a JVP, the operator is TCEI . you are totally aware the kunde 1 well is commercial and the operator has a JVP with adi, eme, aut and eka on the 20,000 acres, the operator has interests in the entire 200,000acrs of the sugarkane.


""As at 30 September 2007, Adelphi’s cash reserves totaled some A$8.3 million"

Three months later, how much do you think is left of that? How much is needed for the next three months? "

not much

"A reality check is needed for ADI holders. The Sugarloaf/Sugarkane could still be a company maker but it is far from certain as some people seem to think."

any investor in adi doesnt need to be reminded of whats happening out there, they are all extremely aware of the ongoing efforts by conoco phillips and TCEI to finish kunde 3 and 3 and then get stuck into kennedy.. 

risk reward, you can buy and sell as you wish,,


----------



## Annwn

Hi all, 
Hope everyone had an enjoyable new year, looking forward to trading the challanges of 2008, cannot help but wonder where the All Ords will be at the end of the year.

Back to ADI
From a TA point, the sellers are still the dominant players, certainly not in an accumulation phase.

Broken down out of a significant trading range - Mar '07 to Nov '07, price now
back to July '05 levels.

Weekly Chart
Cheers


----------



## banska bystrica

agentm on August 15, 2007.
_"i came close to snaring another 100k today, some clown had it at .62 

i was on the phones trying to get the funds together, then it went away!!

to be frank it would be overextending, but even for a few weeks i think i could have made a great return!!

for those fortunate enough to have the cash,, good luck!! i envy you.."_

The "clown" selling 100K at 62c had the last laugh. the clown eventually bailed at average 60c. Guess who the clown was? The "clown" bought at 67c and copped a $7,000 haircut. The "clown" is thankful he only lost $7,000 and moved on. The "clown" thanks the buyer who stepped up to the plate.


----------



## prawn_86

banksa,

Please refrain from posting comments that are just rubbing mistakes in other members faces.

We all make mistakes. and you seem to have a strong opinion that ADI is going down, without providing a lot of evidence as yet.

Thanks.

Prawn


----------



## maverick11

banska bystrica said:


> agentm on August 15, 2007.
> _"i came close to snaring another 100k today, some clown had it at .62
> 
> i was on the phones trying to get the funds together, then it went away!!
> 
> to be frank it would be overextending, but even for a few weeks i think i could have made a great return!!
> 
> for those fortunate enough to have the cash,, good luck!! i envy you.."_
> 
> The "clown" selling 100K at 62c had the last laugh. the clown eventually bailed at average 60c. Guess who the clown was? The "clown" bought at 67c and copped a $7,000 haircut. The "clown" is thankful he only lost $7,000 and moved on. The "clown" thanks the buyer who stepped up to the plate.





I must say this is a bit unnecessary.   I have been accumulating ADI for 18 months now and have bought as high as 93cps back in feb 07 and I don't sweat it.  Youd don't make a loss until you sell.

You may well be "that clown" when the sp could very well be much higher in 6 months time!

Warren Buffet once said "The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient"


----------



## nioka

ADI and AUT have been good for me during 2007. I have been trading back and forth between the two as I have often posted. Luckily I chose to cream off some profit each time. My main holding now is AUT, which is holding better than ADI but it may be time to reverse the situation again. I have usually sold ADI and bought AUT when 2 ADI bought 3 AUT and went back to ADI when they were close to one another. In the past I have not swapped when AUT was worth more than ADI as is the case now. I'm still prepared to hold both or either as I am a believer. I'm not sure how much to outlay on just a belief. I would like to see more volume traded before I act.
 Maybe I'm typing out my thoughts to help me decide. ??????????????


----------



## tomcat

nioka said:


> ADI and AUT have been good for me during 2007. I have been trading back and forth between the two as I have often posted. Luckily I chose to cream off some profit each time. My main holding now is AUT, which is holding better than ADI but it may be time to reverse the situation again. I have usually sold ADI and bought AUT when 2 ADI bought 3 AUT and went back to ADI when they were close to one another. In the past I have not swapped when AUT was worth more than ADI as is the case now. I'm still prepared to hold both or either as I am a believer. I'm not sure how much to outlay on just a belief. I would like to see more volume traded before I act.
> Maybe I'm typing out my thoughts to help me decide. ??????????????




Hey Nokia,

I think success in Texas will see both of them kick along the same lines...it will really depend on which one you see doing better in the long haul. I'm in ADI primarily for Texas but will also be hanging around for Yemen as I think there is a lot of opportunity there. 

Would love to see a good result to get us back on the right path and I will be keeping a close eye on EME over the coming days as their Kunde well gets close to give us the first indication of how these horizontals go.


----------



## banska bystrica

prawn_86 said:


> banksa,
> 
> Please refrain from posting comments that are just rubbing mistakes in other members faces.
> 
> We all make mistakes. and you seem to have a strong opinion that ADI is going down, without providing a lot of evidence as yet.
> 
> Thanks.
> 
> Prawn




Point taken. By the way, I don't actually have a strong opinion that ADI is going down. It all depends on Kennedy and that could turn out great. I'm just pointing out the contra argument to agentm's.


----------



## Agentm

noika

i had a detailed lease map up over the last days, its not hard to work out the acreages based on images in the presentations and the leases details i have in my database, which gives me exact acreages in the hands of TCEI. I was thinking about AUT and i have thought the same thing myself, like you, i wonder how people view the AUT gamble on going "all in" on this play. EKA has a one play stratergy also, i have to say i know a few of the larger holders in AUT are extremely confident, and they will benifit from the acreages that are in the area between the wells.. i look at the size of this play and have studied the chalks wells in the 200,000 acres in karnes county. a lot of cash has been invested in the chalks, pioneer had a nice look at the sugarkane late 2006 in live oak, and shut the meeks well in, no testing needed, and its no P&A! they will learn how conoco is doing things and no doubt and the next few months will see a lot more activity from all interested stakeholders, not just the TCEi sugarloaf ami jvp.



interesting days to come i think..

just as a bit of a side note, these leases i am posting, the ones with purple dots, are coming close to expiry, they would have to be drilled in the first 12 months. there are others in the north, but this batch is interesting as they are in the baker region, and baker is doing fine i hear..


----------



## banska bystrica

maverick11 said:


> You don't make a loss until you sell.




I disagree actually. A paper loss is just as real. There have been many chapters in financial management books dedicated to this topic but that is for others to read up on. Let's just agree to disagree.
Right now, my decision to take a small loss selling at 60c is the right one. I can always purchase my shares back at approx 40c and keep the $20K "saved" in my pocket.


----------



## resourceboom

banska bystrica said:


> Let's just agree to disagree.
> Right now, my decision to take a small loss selling at 60c is the right one. I can always purchase my shares back at approx 40c and keep the $20K "saved" in my pocket.




BB, I think its perfectly obvious to all that we do agree to disagree. Most posters on this site tend to be quite optimistic on the prospect (and you are simply more cautious??), so good for you.

The point of the holders is that ADI could do anything, and rather then trying to time a purchase as you may do, we are happy to hold and wait for the rewards that we expect. Your approach or ours could prove a better option, which of course will be known at some time in the future, but as you say lets agree to disagree. Lets not turn this into a copy of the UK ADFVN EME boards. ....luckily the mods here can moderate all posts 

In regards to AgentM's "all in" question, my preference is to hold a larger batch of EKA and AUT then ADI as I think they will be more leveraged to the kane, however if the worst was to happen, its still no more then 10-15% of my portfolio, so a manageable risk in my opinion and for my risk profile.

Good luck to all holders.... and timers


----------



## banska bystrica

agentm,
Your research is second to none. I commend you on that. However, don't you honestly think that if this play was a certainty, those in the know would be buying as many shares as they can at these prices? Something's just not quite right here. "IF" they've got the porosity Couch mentioned in 2006, then I would say the shares are a steal at 40c.


----------



## resourceboom

banska bystrica said:


> There have been many chapters in financial management books dedicated to this topic but that is for others to read up on.




Also sorry for the off topic, but the book I'm reading at the moment "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" is a highly recommended read. He is probably the person that Buffet's approach is most based off (more then Ben Graham), and has interesting thoughts on timing investments. Granted its not as applicable to what we are discussing now, but still a great book!!


----------



## banska bystrica

resourceboom said:


> BB, I think its perfectly obvious to all that we do agree to disagree. Most posters on this site tend to be quite optimistic on the prospect (and you are simply more cautious??), so good for you.
> 
> The point of the holders is that ADI could do anything, and rather then trying to time a purchase as you may do, we are happy to hold and wait for the rewards that we expect. Your approach or ours could prove a better option, which of course will be known at some time in the future, but as you say lets agree to disagree. Lets not turn this into a copy of the UK ADFVN EME boards.
> 
> In regards to AgentM's "all in" question, my preference is to hold a larger batch of EKA and AUT then ADI as I think they will be more leveraged to the kane, however if the worst was to happen, its still no more then 10-15% of my portfolio, so a manageable risk in my opinion and for my risk profile.
> 
> Good luck to all holders.... and timers




I agree. let's keep this thread friendly. Good friends often disagree respectfully. For all the work agentm has put in, he deserves commercial flow with abundant gas and more than enough oil.


----------



## Agentm

mav.

there are those who claim a lot of things and those that do..

try and disprove that i didnt sell all my holdings at $1 and buy them back in the last few months. its just words, and bravado, its not really the discussion point,  i have taken some profit and dont make a song and dance over it.. its part of the investment cycle as all people have to consider it.. i know a lot of holders who have taken profit and have bought back in. i like nioka, he has always declared when he got in and out, an i like his style, he doesnt do it for brownie points, he just has a very interesting way of jumping between the jvp partners and historically he has just passed on his views in a polite and interesting way, and very non judgemental.. 
for all you know i may have started with 5k lets say 5 years ago and now  today i may be close to a top 20 holder in ADi amoungst other investments! hey you never know it may be the truth and it may be just a pack of garbage.. i know the truth of it and its not relevant to the adi share what point i got in or got out, my interest has always been in researching the reasons for the delays, and they keep bringing up interesting things..

i like to post informations on the adi jvp, but i notice a lot of posts are never commenting on those aspects, they are designed to deflect from anything posted on the stock, like in the uk, keep the topic personal and aggressively attack anything, as long as i post there will be the ones who will just chip away..

my strategy in adi was to accumulate and for NT and Sugarloaf results.. even thats changed, turns out kennedy will beat them both, who would have thought that!!

will hold for the results, no need to sell out now and take profit, as i dont want to pay the capital gains and will stick by my plan to hold for the outcomes. we have different reasons to buy and sell, and we all have to put up with hindsight cowboys everywhere. claiming they did this and they did that.. theres one particular person who has made it his single goal to see my investment in adi fail, and post non stop every time i do some "counter" remark to save the world from adi.  adi is just another oil and gas explorer, it has an exciting prospect and will soon see the operator, TCEI take an active role in finishing off the kennedy well. and i like all investors have to wait for the outcome. 

a few  months ago a major holder bought adi, and i believe it was  in the millions, for .53.........  so what!!!!!!!!  do we have to lay praise on the seller day in day out and then say day in day out that the buyer has bad insights and made a shocking error?  hey if the forum has to degenerate to that then so be it, but i will continue to research the adi jvp and contribute!! as for  paper losses, i know guys happy to take paper losses and buy in again, swings and round abouts!! all to deflect from the discussions!


----------



## Agentm

banska bystrica said:


> agentm,
> Your research is second to none. I commend you on that. However, don't you honestly think that if this play was a certainty, those in the know would be buying as many shares as they can at these prices? Something's just not quite right here. "IF" they've got the porosity Couch mentioned in 2006, then I would say the shares are a steal at 40c.




firstly if you look at the top 20 and see if they are accumulating then you could say the ones that know are buying as many shares as they can.


i am happy to discuss porosity, as the couch figures fall short of the actual porosity in sections of the wells,  but it a very green field, infact for adi its not the perfect type of play to be in, if it wasnt for its size i am certain the focus would have gone ages ago.  unconventional as this play was, it was never the target.. never did burlington drill for the chalks in kunde 1..  this play was never seen, but it couldnt fail to be noticed, it  has blown a few wells so far, and it showed up equally in sugarloaf and in kennedy, and baker..  hey but oddly it never showed in the sturkens back in the 70's!!  

porosity and permeabilty, the ability to hold and to deliver. both important and critical questions and factors, and so far vastly underexplored, we know the pressure can lift a rig into orbit, kennedy was drilled overbalanced to the max and was drilled safe, i cant say i think the other wells have had the same experience..

the results of kunde 3 and the results of any well producing will determine all sorts of factors on the suagrkane, this type of play needs years of deep pockets as one person aptly puts it. and it has been taking years and had deep pockets on it.. but with 36 month and 60 month leases you dont have the luxury of time infinitum. so the balance has to be struck. do the R&D, then try to get the show on the road. the investor wants sp movement, not negative but positive, and when your buying leases and trying to keep a lid on things for 2 years, then its tough, but then comes the tricky part, leases run out, and you have to make a start with things.

time for the curtains to be raised on the show i hear, kunde results any day, and then kennedy to follow. i cant account for the share price as in my view its great value for the potential outcome, dont ask me to buy more as i cant..  i am not in this share for a 50 bcf outcome, i fully expect the wells will deliver far more..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well a little movement up and down in the sp all seems like some are getting bargin basement prices atm.
K1 soon too frac should know the results by end of the month proving no curve ball delays !
Oil set too go through $100 and may stay there or on a new sustainable higher level now would be a good time too tell everyone what they have got down there !
Suprised we havent seen no change in substantial shareholder notices from ADI


----------



## cicak_kupang

m
Thanks for your queries.

The Indonesia block is likely to be qazetted Q1 this year (we then have first right of refusal).

The Thai application appears to have been awarded to another company but we have yet to receive official notification that this is the case. We are continuing to apply for other prospective blocks in this country however.

The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. We don’t have a firm timetable as yet.

Regards

Chris Hodge


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: 
Sent: Thu 3/01/2008 9:11 AM
To: Lauren Doust
Subject: INDONESIA AND THAI UPDATE

Good Morning ADI,

                              Are able to tell me how the Indonesian Study and Thai bidding is going?  Seems like its been a while without no updated news..

The Kennedy testing in on shore Texas is likely to start soon?



Thanks for your time, best wishes for 2008.



M









Chris Hodge

Managing Director



Adelphi Energy Limited

Ground Floor

88 Colin Street

West Perth WA 6005



Tel:          61-8 9480 1300

Fax:         61-8 9263 4688

Mobile:     61 (0)411 176 162



Email:               chris@adelphienergy.com.au

Web Page:       www.adelphienergy.com.au 


So, maybe late Jan, Feb even for testing Kenedy i'd say going by this....Still holding, still happy to be part of the wait.......


----------



## Agentm

_The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. We don’t have a firm timetable as yet._

i shouldnt think we should put the directors emails on forums too much, it may not be good practice as they usually dont expect them on the forums.. but none the less, the news is accurate as i see it..

just curious about the freudian slip, how many horizontals has conoco got,  i know baker is one but its still drilling, we know kunde 3 is one and completed, and we know the rig sat in kunde 2 for a long long time, and is completed.... maybe kunde 2 is more than just a vertical, there are two permits for it..  all guess work.. but interesting remark in any case.. he is saying "one of sugarkane horizontal wells"..   anyway who knows what they did there in those months and months with the nabors well on kunde 2..  it only takes a days for a vertical sidetrack, but the well was there for months in the end..

have a great weekend, it seems the "closed well" policy also excludes all news from all wells, so lets see when they greenlight it all.


----------



## fflintoff

It is obvious from the EME releases that the reference to:-
_"The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. "_ is Kunde #3.


----------



## Lucky_Country

I see HSBC and Citigroup have both sold their holding in ADI thats where the selling pressure has come from lately.
Just wonder why they would sell down  ANZ has increased its stake with a few other movers in there.
Umm interesting times.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> I see HSBC and Citigroup have both sold their holding in ADI thats where the selling pressure has come from lately.
> Just wonder why they would sell down ANZ has increased its stake with a few other movers in there.
> Umm interesting times.





initially i also thought they were actual  investment houses coming in but they are nominee accounts, so the accounts are on behalf of individuals or companies.. 

there has been no change on the website since 11 december, and all the previous movements were noted then, there was a move out of some 5 million shares that were taken up by the various top 20 to top 50 shareholders.. 

best i can understand is that kunde 3 has a little way to go and they start the last of the frac stage. i would say its not to far away. we are all awaiting the results of that. as soon as the frac is completed then kennedy will be attended to. i think by now they would have enough data from sugarlaof to understand how to frac the zone 3 with the horizontals, and they have stated no further work at sugarloaf until kennedy is completed. 

next few weeks are news weeks according to tom at EME..

lets see if he is right..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well a minimum ofover 12 months on since the finish of drilling at sugarloaf and we are still none the wiser.
January had better give us some definative news with both K1 and SL1 other wise I can see alot of phone calls too the company from alot of investors.
Obviously these things are very complex deals and need too be handled in the most efficient way possible but I do feel some of us that have been with the company for quite some time deserve an announcement that will let us know what too do with our investment.
I feel for the people who bought at around the $1 mark.


----------



## prawn_86

I'm no chartist, but the ADI chart certainly looks very very unhealthy to me. 

If I was looking to buy this, even on fundamentals, I would wait till the chart at least leveled out, especially in current market conditions. 

Double (or triple) top has formed and now in a vicious downtrend. Resistance previously to this 9 month chart was at $1.

Hows that for a bit of sweet charting


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> next few weeks are news weeks according to tom at EME..
> 
> lets see if he is right..



This month is make or break for me. During the last week I have traded AUT for ADI so that I am now 50:50 with the two. Luckily I sold the AUT before the last announcement and was able to get 6 ADI for every 5 AUT. With the low turnover it wasn't easy. If the news isn't good by the end of the month I will sell half and if there is no good news in Feb then I'll be out. Definitely no more buying for me.


----------



## gdaf

tick tick tick tick -

what's going on with zone3? pressure testing the well for 7 days turned out to be 27?


----------



## resourceboom

prawn_86 said:


> I'm no chartist, but the ADI chart certainly looks very very unhealthy to me.
> 
> If I was looking to buy this, even on fundamentals, I would wait till the chart at least leveled out, especially in current market conditions.




Hey Ray,
Whilst it may be safer to not buy in the short term, you also could miss out on some potentially massive gains in the next few days/weeks/months when the real news finally comes out.

Charting may be of assistance in small periods of no news, but as everyone says small news driven speccy oil companies are not the best use for this technique!! 

ie don't want to miss out on any gains like this :
(I know I know..... but this or much better is what we hold for)


----------



## prawn_86

RB,

I can find plenty of stocks that have gone sideways or dropped a lot over the same time period as that chart.

My point is, in current market and stock trending conditions you are almost assured to lose value on paper in the short to medium term if no announcements come.

If you wanted wait for an announcement, then why not just set up an alert so you can check every announcement they release and jump onboard early if you think it is worthwhile.

At least this way your $ will be working elsewhere and not in a downward trend, and you can still have the upside of a big announcement. Even if it gaps up a bit, it is probably the same as if you buy now and the value drifts lower in the current trend.

EG (purely fictional): 
buy now @ 37c hold for a month price at 30c.
watch for announcement and buy then. Price gaps from 30 - 36c (20% gap) and all else is equal plus your cash has been employed better over a month.
It wouldnt work this 'nicely' though


----------



## nioka

prawn_86 said:


> RB,
> 
> I can find plenty of stocks that have gone sideways or dropped a lot over the same time period as that chart.
> 
> My point is, in current market and stock trending conditions you are almost assured to lose value on paper in the short to medium term if no announcements come.
> 
> If you wanted wait for an announcement, then why not just set up an alert so you can check every announcement they release and jump onboard early if you think it is worthwhile.




I don't think this is a stock that you can do this with.When it goes, if it goes, it will be a massive jump. I have done what you suggest with LYC where I bought at 37c, sold at $1.343 but will buy in again when the start up date for production gets closer. I did the same with AGM. Both those stocks faded but will come good as the production date gets closer.Luckily I got back into AGM before the Zinifex offer, I am not back into LYC yet.  ADI and AUT are a different kettle of fish. If you are "out" when the news comes you miss out.( for better or for worse.)


----------



## prawn_86

nioka said:


> ADI and AUT are a different kettle of fish. If you are "out" when the news comes you miss out.( for better or for worse.)




So you are saying that if it gaps up it will be a huge % and that will be it? No further rises?

I find that hard to believe : especially if the news is as good as people are hoping.


----------



## Agentm

hey nioka

so your moving around again!!

in talking to adi recently i was under the impression they were equally feeling the frustration of the delays. 

As i have mentioned in the past weeks, i am more concerned as each week passes about the prime leases in our acreages that are not on 60 month terms. there are a bunch of very very prospective leases which need to be seriously looked at by adi, and in my discussions with adi they are accutely aware as i am of them.

i feel the goundhog day senario is continuing for a while yet.. but it cant be too long,,

i am waiting for kennedy myself, then if its as good as i believe it will be, then i may be forced in staying in for a while longer..

good luck to the holders.. 

all imho and dyor


----------



## ScottMG

Where do you find out who is buying / selling ? and who are the top 20 holders in the company ? Anyone know


----------



## nioka

prawn_86 said:


> So you are saying that if it gaps up it will be a huge % and that will be it? No further rises?
> 
> I find that hard to believe : especially if the news is as good as people are hoping.



What I mean is that, in my opinion, there will be a spike on good news. The better the news the bigger the spike. Then it will trade sideways, without much gain, maybe even a fall, until the next news, and depending on that news we will see a trend one way or the other. I would expect a huge jump if the elephants start to sing and there may be little warning. That is how I am approaching my holding, I'm often wrong.


----------



## resourceboom

prawn_86 said:


> EG (purely fictional):
> buy now @ 37c hold for a month price at 30c.
> watch for announcement and buy then. Price gaps from 30 - 36c (20% gap) and all else is equal plus your cash has been employed better over a month.
> It wouldnt work this 'nicely' though




... Thanks for that, but yes, I hope a decent announcement will see it gap larger then 20% 
I'd be very interested in your thoughts over the coming weeks as things unfold.

ie If you can give some ongoing thoughts for a hypothetical as with your example but with updates, I would be interested to see how it plays out.


----------



## prawn_86

resourceboom said:


> ... Thanks for that, but yes, I hope a decent announcement will see it gap larger then 20%
> I'd be very interested in your thoughts over the coming weeks as things unfold.
> 
> ie If you can give some ongoing thoughts for a hypothetical as with your example but with updates, I would be interested to see how it plays out.




ok well lets use my previous post as a hypothetical and see how things go.

I will assume i bought today at 37c and i will let you know when i will 'buy' in on the announcement. Hopefully i dont miss it


----------



## Agentm

interesting, but what volumes are we talking about, as if you talking just a few thousand then its neither here nor there, for me i hold considerable stock levels, i cant sell today nor could i buy the levels i hold without making some serious damage in the share price.... hypothetically speaking


----------



## prawn_86

Well im only a student so lets assume small levels.

Admitedly a large holding would take time to buy, or affect the price when dumped, but thats not really what we are testing here


----------



## resourceboom

Lets say a smallish 50K shares... They could have been picked up today for 37c for mr hypothetical 1

Interesting to see which news mr hypothetical 2 will purchase at, eg: SL, K3, K1H, other.... ?  (or is it just 1st news)

Sorry if this is a bore (or silly) for current holders.


----------



## prawn_86

Not 1st announcement. It will be one Mr Hypothetical 2 chooses to trade.

And for simplicity lets say Mr Hypothetical 2's money is in a Bankwest account earning 7%pa from today.

So Mr H 1 currently has 50000 shares initial outlay = $18500

Mr H 2 has $18500 in his bank account waiting to buy on his choice of announcement

**Both Mr H's will be overseas for 2 weeks so Mr H 2 is hoping there isnt an ann in that time**


----------



## sam76

prawn_86 said:


> Not 1st announcement. It will be one Mr Hypothetical 2 chooses to trade.
> 
> And for simplicity lets say Mr Hypothetical 2's money is in a Bankwest account earning 7%pa from today.
> 
> So Mr H 1 currently has 50000 shares initial outlay = $18500
> 
> Mr H 2 has $18500 in his bank account waiting to buy on his choice of announcement
> 
> **Both Mr H's will be overseas for 2 weeks so Mr H 2 is hoping there isnt an ann in that time**




This is going to be an interesting test for those who A) are in the share already and B) are sitting on the sidelines waiting for an announcement and entry.


I'm looking forward to tracking this as it progresses.

Good idea fellas


----------



## Agentm

in terms of hypotheticals, i like the idea, i can assure you that my money is on adi and stayin there!!

i cant make money hypothetically, its up to each person to put their b*lls on the line and follow thier own research.. 

no one expected this long a wait for a well to be completed, and its now at its lowest ebb.. its time for the volume to return imho..

imho first run up will be now as the kunde news breaks. then its full steam ahead for kennedy..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Why sell that is my question ?
Why would ADI have waited all this time drilled another well acquired more acerages if SL 1 was a duster please explain.
Now I am keen for some answers like every other holder and feel it is overdue but I wont be selling until we get those answers which surely must be close.
Waiting on frac end of Jan then I will be expecting news


----------



## BBand

Why sell? *because the stock is in a downtrend, and has been since around October. *

If you think ADI will ultimately be successful, wait for it to prove itself and then buy back in,(at a lower price). 

In the mean time make your money work elsewhere.

Price will have to increase approx 100% just to get back to where it was in September.

Trade what you see - not what you hope.

Nothing is certain in this game - it would just be like the thing for ADI to take off to-morrow - but the probability factor is negative

Good luck
Peter


----------



## Agentm

good luck to those selling.. although none chose to today.. no daytraders on this stock at the moment, that will change as news flows are expected soon..

i am remaining for the big picture, it was for a result in either NT or kennedy i went in for, and remained in and accumulated as i discovered conocophillips was even more keen on this and has spent  a lot of time and effort to develop the play.  first horizontal results in a very short time. 

i have not seen conoco drop ther focus yet, and as long as they are trying i am staying in..

share price day to day may look tired on no news, but we all know news is expected in only days to a week away.. imho its closer than most are expecting..  low volumes to zero turnover is the order of the day as no one is the wiser on when the kunde 3 news will break from the "closed well" there..


----------



## banska bystrica

Bad news on Kennedy will see the stock at 20c. Good news and there is still plenty of time to get set. Even if it spikes to 60c, it is better to wait. I must say the complete lack of buyers willing to step up to the plate makes one wonder if they have got anything over in "Sugarland".


----------



## Lucky_Country

What I will say about ADI is over the last 18 months we have drilled 3 well NT SL and K1 and havent a had a result good or bad  from one of them  thats what I think is very frustrating and maybe even unaceptable but hopefully this will change in day weeks as Agentm says !


----------



## banska bystrica

Trading at 33.5c. 
Not real indicative of having anything significant over in Sugarland. Low to mid 20's might get me for a few as Yemen in 2009/10 could be interesting.


----------



## gdaf

One can only assume they are still on holidays. The longer this thing goes on without a word, the longer the shares will languish. Mind you - I think the bottom's in. EKA have been at rock bottom for some time now, so you could argue that the same was bound to happen to ADI without any news. This is a very sour investment at the moment, but I guess one could argue (here I go again) that anybody buying shares in July last year was in for a pretty horrible time (ok, bring out the success stories to rub it in). Honestly - I'm going to hold this for as long as it takes them to produce from texas or tell us they don't have anything there. My thinking is that if texas is a dud, it'll probably drop to the low 20s, and then as time goes on, and their other projects come into focus, they may find some new investment. If texas comes through with the goods though, we'll all be looking back at these days thinking why oh why didn't I pick up that parcel of 100k at .40c..... If they don't update the market tomorrow, I'm emailing the directors - enough is enough.


----------



## Gspot

banska bystrica said:


> Trading at 33.5c.
> Not real indicative of having anything significant over in Sugarland. Low to mid 20's might get me for a few as Yemen in 2009/10 could be interesting.




This is what worries me, that if it WERE so promising, and good news around the corner, then why the sp is so low?
With so many JVP's, any good news, wouldn't be secret for long.


----------



## Agentm

Gspot said:


> This is what worries me, that if it WERE so promising, and good news around the corner, then why the sp is so low?
> With so many JVP's, any good news, wouldn't be secret for long.




85k traded this year, if i placed an on market buy for 85K the sp would reach .60..

as for leaks,, the wells are "closed wells" nothing is allowed out, its more than your job if you do!!

anyone looked at kunde 1 closely?

*Using Oil Geochemistry to Determine the Origin of Light Oils and Condensates* 

Hydrocarbon liquids which at surface conditions are high gravity (e.g., ~ 45-60 oAPI) may be either a light oil (volatile oil) or a gas condensate.  A true condensate is a hydrocarbon LIQUID at surface conditions that is a GAS at reservoir conditions, while a volatile oil is a liquid at both surface and reservoir conditions.  Two, general “rules of thumb” for distinguishing between a volatile oil and a gas condensate include:​ 
(1) When the GOR of a produced petroleum is > 3,000 cu ft of gas/ barrel oil (cfg/bo), then the liquid is a condensate (i.e., exists as a gas in the reservoir; Kingston, 1990). 

(2) Condensates typically contain < 12.5 mole %C7+, while volatile oils typically contain > 12.5 mole% C7+ (Danesh, 1998).  


maybe if you some of you guys read the completion reports on kunde 1 you would see the numbers (not the volume on production) but the actual chemistry of the condensate is pretty well as good as it can possibly get..

its all about the liquids... how many time has that been said??

conoco is not dealing with trash here, they bought out burlington and would have discarded this project if it didnt come up to scratch..

imho its potentially up to a world class find, a world class discovery and worthy of keeping my cash in it..

its up to each of us to respect someones investment and not do as so many do here and talk the share down without any idea of what they are talking about.. to call the suagrkane project right now as a fail is a big call in light of the infrastructure and development so far undertaken.. big call indeed..  

if your investing for a fast return,, dont invest in adi, its about investing for the outcome of the exploration in hand..  once the news comes out in the coming days i am of the belief people will not be keen to sell many at all too cheaply.. 

all imho and dyor..

goog luck in the next few weeks if your lucky enough to be holding..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well it wouldnt suprise me if ADI were already fraccing K1 as they have a way of suprising interested followers.
Just late last year SL was fracced with no great outcome and supposedly moving to the next zone then a week later they were getting oil from z3.
Agree sp is so frustrating and delays have just been made too suit everyone on this play but hopefully all shareholders holding through this stage will be rewarded.
Lets just see what there next announcement say  cant imagine it will be too far away.


----------



## fflintoff

Latest Adelphi drilling program on the ARQ website.

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/web/operations/drilling-program.php


----------



## jackohelp

Agentm said:


> 85k traded this year, if i placed an on market buy for 85K the sp would reach .60..
> 
> as for leaks,, the wells are "closed wells" nothing is allowed out, its more than your job if you do!!
> 
> anyone looked at kunde 1 closely?
> 
> *Using Oil Geochemistry to Determine the Origin of Light Oils and Condensates*




yes, i have. posted some stuff on advfn for the vermin to get their teeth into!

do you have any latest production figures?


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Well it wouldnt suprise me if ADI were already fraccing K1 as they have a way of suprising interested followers.
> Just late last year SL was fracced with no great outcome and supposedly moving to the next zone then a week later they were getting oil from z3.
> Agree sp is so frustrating and delays have just been made too suit everyone on this play but hopefully all shareholders holding through this stage will be rewarded.
> Lets just see what there next announcement say cant imagine it will be too far away.




nothing is happening at kennedy.. nor sugarloaf.  currently conoco are very keen to get kunde 3 and rocket ship baker  on production immediately. 

as far as zone 3 goes, they did the pressure build up tests a month ago, and imho they have the data they needed now and the formation has been tested as much as anyone needs to. the zone 2 region is to be tested post kennedy completion.

full focus on the horizontals currently, once they finish the frac at kunde 3 in the near term they will announce the flow rates after its put on production. 

the idea of these wells is to make them extremely profitable, and the sorts of flow rates they are conditioning these wells to achieve are designed to pay the wells off in a matter of months. imho the wells could  be put on production right now with what they have in them.. but the chalks are over pressurised and have high matrix porosity and other factors that make it very attractive to frac them and boost them up..  lets wait and see what the frac can deliver!!

if you think about how long its taken conoco to frac the kunde 3 well, with all its complications, then you must understand they are treating this deadly seriously..

unlike the conoco projects in the lower 48 like piceance, the burlington project has only really slipped in the last year  or so, 2006 was when burlington and conoco combined. this project went from a look into the edwards to a discovery that was completely unexpected. if you search through conoco releases over the last 2 years you will not find a single reference to this play anywhere officially, yet they have invested a small fortune there and from what i hear fully intend to increase that dramatically in the very near term..

although the general public is mostly unaware of the conoco program there, its not missed by the industry itself, it prompted pioneer to drill at meeks and see what they were looking at.. they can later look at driling some horizontals there on their leases once they see how conoco is  doing.. as are a number of lease holders in the sugarkane region.. including our jvp.. but there is a  close watch on the conoco works in the industry..


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> nothing is happening at kennedy.. nor sugarloaf.  currently conoco are very keen to get kunde 3 and rocket ship baker  on production immediately.
> 
> as far as zone 3 goes, they did the pressure build up tests a month ago, and imho they have the data they needed now and the formation has been tested as much as anyone needs to. the zone 2 region is to be tested post kennedy completion.
> 
> full focus on the horizontals currently, once they finish the frac at kunde 3 in the near term they will announce the flow rates after its put on production.
> 
> the idea of these wells is to make them extremely profitable, and the sorts of flow rates they are conditioning these wells to achieve are designed to pay the wells off in a matter of months. imho the wells could  be put on production right now with what they have in them.. but the chalks are over pressurised and have high matrix porosity and other factors that make it very attractive to frac them and boost them up..  lets wait and see what the frac can deliver!!
> 
> if you think about how long its taken conoco to frac the kunde 3 well, with all its complications, then you must understand they are treating this deadly seriously..
> 
> unlike the conoco projects in the lower 48 like piceance, the burlington project has only really slipped in the last year  or so, 2006 was when burlington and conoco combined. this project went from a look into the edwards to a discovery that was completely unexpected. if you search through conoco releases over the last 2 years you will not find a single reference to this play anywhere officially, yet they have invested a small fortune there and from what i hear fully intend to increase that dramatically in the very near term..
> 
> although the general public is mostly unaware of the conoco program there, its not missed by the industry itself, it prompted pioneer to drill at meeks and see what they were looking at.. they can later look at driling some horizontals there on their leases once they see how conoco is  doing.. as are a number of lease holders in the sugarkane region.. including our jvp.. but there is a  close watch on the conoco works in the industry..




Appreciate your research as always Agent.  Was that you that just bought another $20,000.00 worth at 6 cents above the market offer?    First time in a few days that has happened ................ Those who have picked this up at under 40 cents at this stage of developement have done very well I think. Like many, I'm well down on paper, but sitting tight and waiting patiently ....


----------



## Logique

Have bailed on this one.

And on a few others too. It's more about the overall market conditions than about ADI specifically. Where there's smoke there's usually fire, so Agent's faith in ADI will probably be rewarded. I'm taking the risk of missing a big announcement and being left behind on the price action. 

Will be watching closely, ready to re-enter.


----------



## Agentm

TCEI JV Block A-3 Well                 BAKER
----------------------

Empyrean has been advised by the operator that significant further gas shows and multiple gas flares have been encountered over approximately 2,700 feet during drilling of the horizontal section of the well in the target zone. It is important to note that the shows and flares were encountered whilst drilling with relatively heavy mud weight and that the well was observed as trying to flow naturally. This has prompted the operator to cease drilling at a measured depth of 15,100 feet prior to the planned total depth of 17,800 feet in order to carry out a natural open hole test to see if the well will flow commercially without stimulation.

The drilling rig has been released in order to bring in a workover rig to run tubing and commence testing as a natural open hole completion. Depending upon testing results the operator has advised that a water frac may then be used to enhance flow rates. If non-commercial flow rates are sustained following a water frac then it is likely the operator will bring the drilling rig back on site to continue drilling to the original planned total depth.

The testing is expected to commence shortly and a further announcement will be made when the workover rig arrives on site prior to commencing testing.

The commercial significance of the gas shows will not be known until the full results of any testing are analyzed.

TCEI JV Block A-1 Well                KUNDE 3
----------------------

Present operations are the running of 41/2" casing to tie back the 41/2" liner in the horizontal section of the well all the way back to the surface. This is being done in order to get a higher pressure rate than the previous 7" casing would allow, such that effective fracture stimulation can be carried out using a conventional gel sand frac. The 7" casing did not allow for high enough pressure to effect the fracture stimulation.


----------



## fflintoff

From q44 on ADVFN:-

"If the well wants to flow naturally under these sort of conditions it is VERY significant. This is a major major opportunity for longs imho.
q44:"


----------



## Lucky_Country

Very good announcement wonder if Kennedy 1 had any significant flares ?
Lets hope this is the start of good news for all jv partners.


----------



## barney

Lucky_Country said:


> Very good announcement wonder if Kennedy 1 had any significant flares ?
> Lets hope this is the start of good news for all jv partners.




Very positive indeed ....... EME up 15% atm on about three times normal volume, so the market is obviously watching this play with interest ..... Considering the whole of Europe is down tonight it certainly looks "encouraging" ..........


----------



## Agentm

with baker in the vicinty of 3 miles away going for it..

_The drilling rig has been released in order to bring in a workover rig to run tubing and commence testing as a natural open hole completion. Depending upon testing results the operator has advised that a water frac may then be used to enhance flow rates. If non-commercial flow rates are sustained following a water frac then it is likely the operator will bring the drilling rig back on site to continue drilling to the original planned total depth._


its certainly interesting.. couldnt drill any further, so why not produce from it hey!


_It is important to note that the shows and flares were encountered whilst drilling with relatively heavy mud weight and that the well was observed as trying to flow naturally_


this part is very interesting.. its been said "its important to note" there were shows and flares.. that got to be the most conservative description of the wells drilling activities i have ever seen so far.. how many shows are there that can send a rig to the moon?


if what happened to baker is a a show and a flare, then the "elevated back ground readings" we hear about at kennedy would have to be 50 times more than what they are described as also!!


happily waiting for conoco to figure out how to frac that kunde 3 well, its got a lot of complications that are imho pretty exciting ones to be dealing with.... if they can frac it without burst then i think both baker and kunde 3 wells themselves are showing right now some problems indicative of potential commercial flow.. in any case they seem to be indicating the confidences that baker is capable of commercial flow right now. and i am of the opinion all the wells are equally charged and capable of the same thing..

i am extremely optimistic now that the formation and the readings that both sugarloaf 1 and kennedy 1H, in terms of the sugarkane and the understandings that we are in the same structure, combined with the recent announcements by eme on the kunde 3 and baker wells, fits well with the ADI objectives! 


• size and nature of any drilling prospect has to be of
sufficient scale to achieve a “high impact” outcome​
in a discovery/success case;


the sorts of statements made by adi in the recent annual report are begining to look a good to me..

_We believewe have discovered a new play in this part of Texas_
_– so with 80 square kilometres (20,000 acres) under_
_lease, we are now in a position to fully benefit from a_​_successful outcome._


i remain convinced of that also and good luck to all holders.. i am certain plenty of news is to come over the coming weeks..


----------



## jackohelp

Agentm>
Do you believe this to be classed as a continuous accumulation as defined by Schmoker of the USGS.?  Or do you believe it to be unconventional in some other way, i.e to do with the fact they are using some fracc techniques to get flow.

I asked Mr Kelly , but so far has evaded the direct question of a continuous accumulation.

from Schmoker......
Continuous petroleum accumulations form a geologically diverse group that includes coalbed methane, “tight” gas, basin-center gas, oil and gas in fractured shale and chalk, gas hydrates, and shallow biogenic gas. Despite their obvious differences,
these various petroleum deposits are linked together as continuous accumulations by two key geologic characteristics:
(1) they consist of large volumes of rock pervasively charged with oil or gas, and (2) they do not depend upon the buoyancy of oil or gas in water for their existence.


----------



## Agentm

jackohelp said:


> Agentm>
> Do you believe this to be classed as a continuous accumulation as defined by Schmoker of the USGS.? Or do you believe it to be unconventional in some other way, i.e to do with the fact they are using some fracc techniques to get flow.
> 
> I asked Mr Kelly , but so far has evaded the direct question of a continuous accumulation.
> 
> from Schmoker......
> Continuous petroleum accumulations form a geologically diverse group that includes coalbed methane, “tight” gas, basin-center gas, oil and gas in fractured shale and chalk, gas hydrates, and shallow biogenic gas. Despite their obvious differences,
> these various petroleum deposits are linked together as continuous accumulations by two key geologic characteristics:
> (1) they consist of large volumes of rock pervasively charged with oil or gas, and (2) they do not depend upon the buoyancy of oil or gas in water for their existence.





i think its too early to speculate of these things, tom kelly would be a great source to get an answer from, have you enquired why he cant answer your questions?


----------



## megla

hmm.. obviously the market thinks its interesting. I looked at the opening this morning and was disappointed to see about 2:9 buy:sell volume ratio, and now we are at 3:1 ratio.


----------



## Agentm

Adi have released this today

 _The "significant gas shows and multiple gas flares" reported during drilling provide further encouragement in terms of the possible existence of permeable natural fracture systems in this productive formation which is believed to extend over the Sugarloaf Joint Venture area of some 20,000 acres. The existence of any such natural fracture systems is likely to improve the potential productivity of horizontal development wells that intersect them. The operator’s plans to test the wells using different completion techniques will provide them with valuable information for the future development of the discovery. _

i think as far as the jvp is concerned, the significance of the baker announcement is worth looking at..

again they are saying the chalks are flowing!! thats significant!!  remembering also they are rich in liquids and also have high matrix porosity

now those flares and shows were significant also.. in their intensity and delivery.. the flares were not missed at all in that county and a few others,, and the gas shows were significant.. imho enough to stop them drilling!!


----------



## resourceboom

AgentM, check out todays announcement of a great result from NXS.
Their offshore Crux well testing at 50MMCFD and 2000 barrels condensate, constrained by equipment.

Now, how do we find a picture of the Baker flares to compare


----------



## fflintoff

Father Ted said:


> And your point is what exactly? - that the sugarkane extends that far?
> 
> I suppose if Conoco started drilling off Craggy Island - you would report that as well!
> 
> Lets get back to reality shall we!
> 
> lol
> 
> ft




LOL! Best guffaw of the day!

Father Ted2 - 14 Jan'08 - 09:31 - 61278 of 61278


mpls

sorry that should have been was "hooks #1", and its the latest burlington application for lease in Dewitt at ~14000 depth (that would likely require a big rig)

Its a long way out from the kane but in line with it

ft


----------



## Agentm

resourceboom said:


> AgentM, check out todays announcement of a great result from NXS.
> Their offshore Crux well testing at 50MMCFD and 2000 barrels condensate, constrained by equipment.
> 
> Now, how do we find a picture of the Baker flares to compare




up until now the size of the flares were a "significant" part of the eme's previous announcements 

i see the wells psi are real low compared to the chalks we are in.. i hope the pressure stays there and they get continious production ...look forward to the flow rates of the horizontals at sugarkane..


----------



## Father Ted

fflintoff said:


> LOL! Best guffaw of the day!
> 
> Father Ted2 - 14 Jan'08 - 09:31 - 61278 of 61278
> 
> 
> mpls
> 
> sorry that should have been was "hooks #1", and its the latest burlington application for lease in Dewitt at ~14000 depth (that would likely require a big rig)
> 
> Its a long way out from the kane but in line with it
> 
> ft




The distance from the kane is of no consequence. the interest is where the big rigs are going - and when they will be available again.

If the Baker rig had _not_ gone to Hooks, the question would have been 'where did it go'.

ft


----------



## Agentm

Father Ted said:


> The distance from the kane is of no consequence. the interest is where the big rigs are going - and when they will be available again.
> 
> If the Baker rig had _not_ gone to Hooks, the question would have been 'where did it go'.
> 
> ft





imho perhaps than one well is being done at the hook locations.. currently there is only one permit.. but it was odd that patterson rig did not go anywhere for several months.. 

i dont see it as a chalks target, i think its more likely to be part of the massive exploration and development at runge.. which i believe is edwards..

further north from that is plenty of chalks activity.. 

father ted, what are your thoughts on the lack of interest in EME with 5 wells in the sugarkane?


----------



## jackohelp

Agentm said:


> imho perhaps than one well is being done at the hook locations.. currently there is only one permit.. but it was odd that patterson rig did not go anywhere for several months..
> 
> i dont see it as a chalks target, i think its more likely to be part of the massive exploration and development at runge.. which i believe is edwards..
> 
> further north from that is plenty of chalks activity..
> 
> father ted, what are your thoughts on the lack of interest in EME with 5 wells in the sugarkane?




it's probably this agentm, with my bits added in stars:

Technology Needs for U.S. Unconventional Gas Development
Final Report
Contract DE-RP26-04NT41817 TSK41817.211.01.05
December 2005

2.1.4 Low Permeability Carbonates
Figure 9 shows the major locations of low permeability carbonate plays in the Continental United States. The largest of these formations is the Austin Chalk, which runs from near Laredo Texas through eastern Louisiana. Other carbonate formations are found in West Texas, southeastern Ohio and southern New York. Wells in the Austin Chalk are currently yielding 1 to 3 bcf per well per year.
Figure 9 - Major Low Permeability U.S. Carbonate Plays Devonian/Montoya(Permian Basin)Austin ChalkTrenton/Black RiverMajor Carbonate PlaysDevonian/Plays
Evaluation and characterization of carbonate reservoir rocks, be they shallow or deep, low or high permeability, has been problematic.*** you're telling me***!!! For low permeability carbonates, the issues are most difficult, because subtle property changes that affect the flow properties of the reservoir units are below the resolution and capabilities of current imaging technology. Nonetheless, recent successes in low permeability carbonate plays in the Appalachian Basin, South Texas, and the Permian Basin have clearly demonstrated the potential of this resource.
One source of problems in understanding and characterizing carbonate reservoirs is the fact that, except for reservoirs where granular dolomites contribute to porosity and permeability development, tools and techniques that are successful in characterizing sandstone reservoirs do not produce reliable results in carbonate plays. This is because the major flow conduits in carbonate reservoirs are natural fractures.**have we hit a few!!** In the absence of any proven and reliable technology for fracture identification and characterization, well placement for carbonate reservoirs bears a high risk factor. Further, in the case of tight carbonates, gas stored in the fracture space initially flows at high rates, but production may fall off quickly as the flow from the tight pore spaces replenish the fracture space at a very slow rate. Reliable reservoir assessments may therefore only be possible after a relatively long period of time. The net effect has been that carbonate formations tend to be higher risk plays, thus discouraging exploration for the resource.*** and investors in eme!!


----------



## Agentm

jacko, your presenting information done on the low permiablity carbonates..

these chalks are untested in the horizontal, officially.. but we are uncertain of whats happening at kunde 1 and baker, did baker do a drill stem test to establish their ideas to flow the chalks open hole? they did say it tried to flow naturally during drilling operations! maybe theres an indication there?

remember these chalks are unique, they have an extremely high matrix porosity, and i am unsure of the measure of the permiability until they flow the wells, that will give the best measure of it all. it has yet to be established if they will flow without a fracture, kunde 1 is indicating they can flow without a natural fracture, so be cautious in judging the chalks too hastily.. imho all wells would produce without naturla fractures, i think the idea of fracing is to connect to those natural fractures and there by boost production into some amazing areas, its just the formation is overpressurised and the best at halliburton couldnt crack it open!! they will be back, i can assure you of that!! 

all will be answered in the very very near term..


----------



## jackohelp

I realise this agent. I understand from Schmoker that there is an area of grey when trying to categorise between the two. i.e. it doesn't automatically follow that all continuous accumulation  are low permeability but it does mention natural fractures and extremes of pressure either high or low. I have Put a lot of stuff on advfn on the subject in the last few weeks.

I like the way sweet spots are mentioned as they are in the geology documents i've been studying.


----------



## Agentm

i promised to post the TCEi leases that are running close, these leases are anywhere form may 2009 june july and sept 2009..

so in the next 12 months the tcei are going to be busy getting all those leases covered.. i am not commenting on which ones may or may not be part of the 20,000 acres out jvp is engaged in..

but none the less if this drags on for month after month, eventually someone has to start drilling and developing the play.. the way i see it, if kunde is commercial, and baker is and kennedy, would you want the leases around there to run out??

imho, the baker well is a brilliant well, the way it behaved and the flurry of remarks on it having shows, flowing and flaring with heavy mud, it is also interesting to think like they are, and imagine how well it may flow with no mud there trying to stop the formation from flowing!! hence the future for baker is to flow open hole!!

somehow i think as soon as kunde 3 is up and running the show will begin big time.. well thats what i am investing for in any case..

all imho and dyor

btw there are leases in the name of grace and also in TCEi up north a good 4 miles that run the same..!! and grace have done zip so far..


----------



## fflintoff

Broker report on EME Jan 2008.

Empyrean Energy PLC 32.00p Speculative Buy.

Empyrean Energy is in the middle of a potentially high impact 16 well drilling programme at their Sugarloaf project in which they hold working interests ranging from 6-18%.
The company's latest interim figures were inline with expectations. With respect to specific operational activity, it was announced that 5 wells drilled to date at Sugarloaf all have potential gas pay; each well is at a different stage of completion and production testing. News flow with respect to each wells potential commercial production is expected in the coming months in
addition to further updates as each new well comes online. The top zone out of three being targeted and tested at Sugarloaf is viewed to hold the most potential as it is analogous with the nearby Sugarkane gas-condensate field; this zone should represent the highest chance of success.
Meanwhile production continues at Margarita in which Empyrean holds a 44% working interest. 3
out of 6 wells during this project are now in production, an excellent achievement given industry
drilling statistics for wildcat wells are usually 1 success in every 12. Production to date from
Margarita since hook up in the summer has generated revenue of £198k.
The company reached target depth at its Ruan-1 well at the Bondi prospect however only thin noncommercial
gas sands were encountered here. Further testing of shallower zones will commence
once a more cost effective rig has been sourced.
With respect to the Eagle Oil Pool Project in California, the possibility of a potential horizontal
recompletion is being discussed although the timing of this remains uncertain. Progress at Glantal
in Germany is also being made as the company also announced in their interim update that
preparation to shoot further seismic to indentify potential drill locations for 2008 is underway.

Steady cash flow from Margarita will continue to underpin Empyrean's share price and
facilitate their continued operations as a going concern.
There is thought to be significant upside potential in the order of 100's of Bcf at Sugarloaf
should any of the target zones prove to be commercially viable.
Additional exploration and development potential exists at the Bondi and Coogee prospects
where Empyrean has increased their working interest to 20%. Coogee in itself represents a
potential 28-62 Bcfe target; success at either will add significant shareholder value.

Strengths
Steady cash flow from operations from
Margarita now underpins the company,
enough to cover operational expenditure.
Prospect of reserve upgrades from the
16 well drilling programme at Sugarloaf.
Plans to acquire new seismic at Glantal
define future well placement are ongoing
High gas sales prices will be beneficial.

Weaknesses
Oil and Gas E&P is inherently risky and
share price volatility can be significant in
response to corporate news flow.
There is an operational concentration
risk with only 3 producing wells
difficulties at the current producing
assets will have a significant negative
impact on cash flow.

http://www.hoodlessbrennan.com/stock-research-prices/aim-small-companies/


----------



## Agentm

looking at kunde 1, the condensate is sure making up for any low yield in the gas,,

it generates 3 times more revenue in condensate compared to gas..

cant wait to see what the kunde 3 well delivers!


----------



## blues

Well hope the results are soon as ADI are back to 32 cents. I bought in at 30 cents 18 months ago and it is very disappointing to see it almost back there. Luckily I have traded ADI along the way so have made some money on them. The clock is a ticking but cant see anything from Kennedy soon unfortunately. Still a strong believer in the story but the constant waiting and missed dates is very concerning especially when there is nothing the JVPs can do about it.

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

i agree blues..

if the frac was done on kunde 3 before christmas, then the announcements now would be around what production kunde 3 achieved and the workover rig would be on site at kennedy, doing some works like bond logs and waiting for the frac crew to arrive imho..  the sp would not have tanked like it has on very minimal turnover.. $169,000 in turnover this year and the sp has dropped from .40 to .32.   thats not much turnover imho..  support seems to be maintained in the share, but the price isnt as the volatility of the markets are crunching the expolorers..

what didnt happen before christmas is the reason why we are not fracing kennedy right now.. the kunde 3 well was unable to be fraced, and the solution is at hand, they are putting in a smaller casing and then fracing the well. it cant be too long from now. even conoco could not be keen to see any delays. they have acreages running out of time also, and rigs are not easy to get on short notice!!. baker is also going to be put on production at any time imho, and we still have no clue on kunde 2, but its not been mentioned in any announcements so i assume they are not fracing it yet..

cant see it taking too much longer, if they dont succeed in fracing, which i doubt, then they can always flow it as it is.. but imho they really want to get the best they can from the formation, and will achieve that once they can deliver more psi to the formation in the casing than the formation is throwing back at the well..  if you think about it, the formation must be delivering some amazing pressures in the well.. it kind of wets the appetite as to what these wells will deliver, and what sort of psi they dial up to once they are fraced.. 

look at the share prices of all the jvp's and many other shares, and although its not exactly as one would like, i am not at all concerned with my large holdings in this one, i am waiting for the outcome, which will surface in the very near future.. imho the frac is getting closer by the day and i cannot see it taking weeks. we are all aware that time is running short and the entire project cant just sit and wait, its real close and the share market volatility and the small parcels selling for next to nothing is just a part of the cycle right now..

i understand how its frustrated a lot of holders, but one view is that the things learned in kunde 3 are not costing our jvp anything, we will eventually be able to frac kennedy and have invaluable knowledge on the frac processes.. its a painful time i agree but not without its rewards imho.. i am told by adi that TCEI is very aware of all the jvp's situations.. 

but as with all things, we all have entry and exit strategies, mine is not price driven at all, mine is entirely on the premise of the successful outcomes on the sugarkane, imho the risk / rewards of that will be as adi have stated.. high risk and high reward.

 

cant be long


----------



## nioka

prawn_86 said:


> Well im only a student so lets assume small levels.
> 
> Admitedly a large holding would take time to buy, or affect the price when dumped, but thats not really what we are testing here



There certainly isn't a lot of turn over at this stage. It took me the last 2 days to get a 10000 order filled at a price of 34c. ( I put the order in on Monday and was away for 2 days) part filled Tuesday, part filled Wednesday. Any demand will send the price skyward. Of course a lemming run could do the opposite. Interesting times ahead.


----------



## sam76

Is this your "swap and accumulation" system in action Nioka or are you taking a punt and just buying more?

cheers


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> There certainly isn't a lot of turn over at this stage. It took me the last 2 days to get a 10000 order filled at a price of 34c. ( I put the order in on Monday and was away for 2 days) part filled Tuesday, part filled Wednesday. Any demand will send the price skyward. Of course a lemming run could do the opposite. Interesting times ahead.





i have to say i contimue to admire the way you do it nioka, you are buying more on a decreasing sp across two of the jvp's..  it says to me you would be showing a paper loss each time you do it, yet you would be increasing your holdings in terms of volumes???? i hope i have understood this right.. ( if my brain is working correctly this time of the day)

i like your style.. and you pick the right moments for sure.. 

transfering wealth from the impatient to the patient imho.. 

all we need is the kunde results and then the support will return imho.. maybe a touch sooner for the speculators.. you could jump in now and ride the gap and make some impressive returns if only a little interest returned to the jvp.. but then again it could continue to plunge and nioka can continue to increase his holdings..


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> i have to say i contimue to admire the way you do it nioka, you are buying more on a decreasing sp across two of the jvp's..  it says to me you would be showing a paper loss each time you do it, yet you would be increasing your holdings in terms of volumes???? i hope i have understood this right.. ( if my brain is working correctly this time of the day)
> )



It does work that way. Sold 8500 AUT to buy another 10000 ADI. Lately it has been AUT to ADI for an increase in numbers. That has not always been the case. You have to take the market cap of both into the equation for the exposure to sugarloaf. Then consider the interests both have in other projects. I have been able to increase my holdings while creaming off enough profit to say that neither owe me anything but my patience is tested and will admit that without your posts I would have exited completely by now instead have building up the ADI holding.


----------



## Agentm

in terms of the austin chalks, the usual convention is to have a 80% or more decline after 12 months..

_Recent studies of wells in the Austin Chalk_
_indicate that the average horizontal well_
_produces 4.4 Bcfe of gas, with 40% produced in_​_the first 6 months._


what i find interesting in the sugarkane is that its very very unconventional indeed..

these unconventional, overpressurised, high matrix porosity chalks, that generates some 3 times more revenue in the condensate factor alone than the gas.. also does not conform to the normal decline ratios of conventional chalks fields like giddings and pearsall..

looking at kunde 1, i dont see much of a decline after 12 months.. a touch over 32%..

i am waiting on the kunde 3 results with great anticipation, and also the kennedy well, as i would like to see that well still producing on a decline of only 32% less after 12 months myself..

we shall wait and see i guess

dyor and all imho


----------



## megla

Personally, I am glad no announcement has been made. Imagine giving out great news during a major market sell off like now?!? Would anyone notice?

But wait for the market to begin rebounding, then make an announcement and it should go far!

Waiting and holding - might buy some more...


----------



## Agentm

interesting gas storage unit being expanded in the atkinson field


http://www.escondidogasstorage.com/index.cfm?id=2


_Escondido Gas Storage, LLC (Escondido) announced a non-binding open season beginningJanuary 9 for its Escondido Gas Storage Project (the Escondido Project, the Project) under development in the depleted Atkinson Gas Reservoir southeast of San Antonio, Texas in Live Oak and Karnes counties. The facility design includes 18 Bcf of working gas capacity with an injection rate of 275,000 Mcf/d and a withdrawal rate of 335,000 Mcf/d, allowing for 3 to 4 cycles per year. Based on market demand, the Escondido Project’s capacity could be expanded. The Escondido Project is projected to be in service for the 2010 injection season_​


----------



## mfunksta

Agent M, I honestly don't know how you get all this stuff.  Your knowledge of the entire area borders on omniscient.  I am surprised one of the oil companies haven't recruited you to keep them updated on their own fields.


----------



## Agentm

mfunksta said:


> Agent M, I honestly don't know how you get all this stuff. Your knowledge of the entire area borders on omniscient. I am surprised one of the oil companies haven't recruited you to keep them updated on their own fields.





hey mf

i think the research i do on all my shares have always put me in front, and even this one as sad as it looks today does not reflect in a moment to the work and potential that is being displayed and undertaken in the greatest state of texas..

It has to remembered its all my own research, and even i get it wrong from time to time.. but the story that sits beneath the earth that we have 60 month and 36 month leases on remains the same, and it wont change for all the research i nor anyone does..

one thing really  badly missed by the market in the last week is the baker announcement, now there is  imho confirmation that the formation is flowing in the horizontal with massive mud weights on it whilst trying to keep control of the well, and failing to whilst drilling, and indeed to the degree that they couldnt continue, pulled out of the hole as best they could, and the rig workers can now come off the medications for their nerves in the coming months!!  well thats how i read the announcement..

so if you take all that mud away, whats going to happen to your well??

if you have a formation dissallowing you to drill, with massive mud weights,  and being "observed"  flowing..  then you have to conclude it looks great for the formation if all you need to do is a low cost water frac and get the well on production as it is open hole!!

For zone1 to be doing this is fantastic news..  confirmation that the zone 1 is flowing for 12 months with minimal decline at kunde 1, and confirmation that *the horizontal well 3 miles from us*, and i*n the same formation*, is equally showing everything a well will to demonstrate it wants to produce..



just as a curious little note IMHO until now all things sugarkane have very strange meanings..

SL1..

Elevated background readings = 200,000 acres leasing spree + "Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations"


Kennedy  

Elevated background readings = ??? (overbalanced oil based mud) one heck of a well imho

Baker 

Gas shows and flares =  midnight county wide gas light show and as saddam would have said " mother of all flares"   plus attempted rig launch to outer space

Kunde 3

65 foot baby (compared to others) Gas flares = formation unable to be fraced by one of the best frac crew in the US of A.. 



as usual we see this ground hog day statement repeated on all announcements

*"The commercial significance of the gas shows will not be known until the full results of any testing are analyzed."*


and as much as i can research, i cannot find anywhere in texas where anyone was unable to frac a chalks well due to the formation pressure exceeding the pressure the city of frac trucks could generate.. thats un heard of..

this is an unconventional chalks play, with the formation hardly having any significant drop off or decline in 12 months of production, with high matrix proosity and extremely overpressurised..

there are a stack of horizontals recently put on line in live oak, bee and karnes in the edwards,  not a great deal of them are getting the sorts of pressures kunde 1 has..  and imho the horizontals have a great deal more psi than kunde 1 has.. if the horizontal had 4000 psi like kunde 1 had then no problem with the frac..  you have to imagine what pressures the formation is throwing now in kunde 3.. 

did i mention the condensate levels in the gas in this sugarkane? it has a gravity of 57 and is in the sugarkane generating 3 times more revenue than the gas.. ie kunde 1.. $800k gas  $2.4 mill condensate in 12 months....  i like those numbers!!


still holding and enjoying the story every day more and more..


----------



## gdaf

We'll I for one would like to know when we will be testing 'our' well, as the shares are not going to go up even if baker starts making conoco and EME $1m a day. ADI needs to show some results in texas (hard numbers) before their shares will be anything like what they were. Risk and low cap stocks and good stories are dead (for now)


----------



## megla

*NWE: AC/P 32 Farm-out to Cosmo Energy*

ok, so why was that such bad news? Or is it just that the market is sucking so baddly today? This industry hasn't been hit any worse than any other. Am I missing something?


----------



## Agentm

from adi presentation​ 
• Three targets
• Amplitude and HRDZ
supported Puffin strat
trap geometry
• Simple Montara & Plover
structural trap
• 200mmbbls potential
• July or Oct 2008 drilling
• Near infrastructure –
5mmbbls economic
• Adelphi near fully carried
through drilling*​
*
subject to finalisation of farmout​​
documentation

Northwest announcement​ 
AC/P32 Farm-out to Cosmo Energy
Norwest Energy NL (Norwest), is pleased to announce the execution of a farmin agreement between a number of the AC/P32 Joint Venture parties and Cosmo Energy Exploration & Development Ltd (Cosmo Energy).
Under the terms of the agreement, Cosmo Energy will acquire a total 22.5% equity interest in the AC/P32 Licence from the participating farm-out partners by contributing towards the cost of the Wisteria-1 exploration well on a 2 for 1 promoted basis. The promote payable by Cosmo Energy is capped at an agreed dry hole cost for this exploration well.
As a result of the farm-out, Norwest’s equity interest in the AC/P32 License will reduce from 24.08% to 15.0%, with a remaining exposure towards the dry-hole cost of the Wisteria well of less than 6%. Any costs incurred beyond the agreed farm-in cap such as well completion and testing would be funded by Norwest at its reduced 15% equity interest.
Cosmo Energy is the oil and gas exploration arm of the Cosmo Oil Group, a major Japanese oil refiner and distributor with annual sales of over 2.8 trillion yen. The Cosmo Group already holds interests in several Timor Sea permits including the Tenacious and Audacious oil discoveries some 50 km to the north of the AC/P32 Licence.
As a consequence of this farm-out agreement, the Joint Venture interests in the AC/P32 Licence will now be as follows (subject to standard regulatory approvals):​Coogee Resources (Operator) 22.5%Westranch Holdings (100% subsidiary of Norwest) 15.0%Cosmo Energy 22.5%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited 20.0%
Adelphi Energy 10.0%
Bounty Oil and Gas 10.0%​ 
Peter Munachen, Norwest’s CFO, commented:​ 
“Together with our Joint Venture partners, we are very pleased that a significant corporation of Cosmo’s size and experience will be joining the joint venture in the lead up to the drilling of the Wisteria-1 exploration well later this year. The terms of this farm-out deal reflect the quality and potential of the AC/P32 permit, in which the multi-objective Wisteria Prospect alone is targeting up to 200 million barrels of oil.
As a result of this transaction, Norwest will be free-carried for much of the projected dry-hole cost of drilling Wisteria, yet retain a considerable equity interest with attractive leverage potential for our shareholders in a discovery case. The farmout arrangement is consistent with Norwest’s measured approach across our assets, both in managing our shareholders funds in a challenging cost environment, and through building our relationships with experienced and capable operators and Joint Venture partners.
A suitable drilling rig has also now been secured and we expect to drill the Wisteria-1 well during the third quarter of 2008 as part of a multi well drilling program by the permit operator, Coogee Resources.”​ ​


----------



## Broadside

This is madness.  There is absolutely zero Sugarloaf value built into share price.

How long can the testing be strung out because it is killing the JVPs and they will be issuing twice as many shares as before to raise the same capital (assuming the JVPs raise capital to develop Sugarloaf - which the market obviously thinks will never happen).

Does CP have the JVPs exactly where it wants them now?

Has to be the most frustrating stock I have ever held.


----------



## bazollie

I'm with you Broadside. I remember thinking last November that "It can't be long now!" I understand in a sense what the delays have been in terms of acreage accumulation etc. But it must surely be so close now! 
You read about what is happening down the road, it is all exciting stuff, but the news doesn't seem to help our cause at ADI. 

Still waiting & hope that the news will still be good!!

Regards

Bazza


----------



## tomcat

Broadside said:


> This is madness.  There is absolutely zero Sugarloaf value built into share price.
> 
> How long can the testing be strung out because it is killing the JVPs and they will be issuing twice as many shares as before to raise the same capital (assuming the JVPs raise capital to develop Sugarloaf - which the market obviously thinks will never happen).
> 
> Does CP have the JVPs exactly where it wants them now?
> 
> Has to be the most frustrating stock I have ever held.




Agree...it is madness. Nothing has changed with the potential of the Sugarkane play. That is nothing except that Baker was trying to flow back and they are now about to test it open hole. That is massive and if it does produce at commercial rates we will see some interest back in the JVP.

Delays at Kunde are killing us...Kennedy is sitting there waiting to be tested but not until they sort Kunde and work out the best way to frac the well. Who knows how long we have to wait but I'm sure some of the top 20 shareholders will be asking Chris as he moves around the country this week with an ADI roadshow...Shoud be some questions coming his way in Brisbane today

Lets hope there is not to much longer for the testing to be sorted and we get some news. Still holding and think that 26c was a steal...good luck all long term holders.


----------



## Gspot

Broadside said:


> This is madness.  There is absolutely zero Sugarloaf value built into share price.
> 
> How long can the testing be strung out because it is killing the JVPs and they will be issuing twice as many shares as before to raise the same capital (assuming the JVPs raise capital to develop Sugarloaf - which the market obviously thinks will never happen).
> 
> Does CP have the JVPs exactly where it wants them now?
> 
> Has to be the most frustrating stock I have ever held.




Would CP deliberately delay results, in order to have Jvp's sp fall, making them an attractive takeover target. I posed this question a few months ago.


----------



## Broadside

Gspot said:


> Would CP deliberately delay results, in order to have Jvp's sp fall, making them an attractive takeover target. I posed this question a few months ago.




Yeah, I posed the same question on hotcopper last week, because rice seems confident the JVPs will get taken out in the next year or two.  The way this is playing out they will be at the mercy of a cashed up major (all this is assuming of course SL meets our hopes).

In about 2 years we can look back on this thread and see it as die hard denialists of what the market is telling us, or one of the great bargains of all time.  I hold, why wouldn't I when the results still haven't come in?


----------



## Trader Paul

Hi folks,

ADI ..... trading below September 2006 lows now, but expecting some 
significant news, around 23-25012008, possibly finance-related ... ???

..... figure this could reveal some previously hidden information, so no
position on this end, as yet ... 

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## Agentm

NWE and BUY did not get the kicking we did for announcing the free carry news on wisteria, so currently i think the adi share is reacting in a very strange fashion to that news..

There was no news in the presentation to warrant the reaction to the sell down of the share, so i gather we have to wait and see where the sp ends up.

ADI have agreat list of projects on the books, i dont view the other jvp's projects anywhere near as prospective as the current Yemen, Wisteria and soon to be announced indonesia project.

As for the current situation. we have a fully completed horizontal well in the suagrkane. Kennedy is ready to go, but as yet untested.

its really not a issue for me, i cant see what the current drama is all about, conoco are testing kunde 3 and probably baker as soon as they can, and we have to test our well once they have conditioned the kunde 3 well to be able to do the frac..

great buying prices i guess, but failing to understand why the wisteria news was taken so badly today..


----------



## blues

I dont think the sell off was to do with the farm out news as this was always going to happen. ADI has been sold down on $31000 so not exactly a huge volume and in the current environment there arent many buyers around. I believe some shareholders are getting tired of waiting with the constant delays and with the markets as they are cashing in to preserve capital. Other than the Kennedy testing ADI doesnt have any news comng up to move the share price and no one can tell you if the Kennedy testing is days, weeks or months away. All holders are impatient with the delays and news of the comencement of Kennedy testing will be a welcome relief for all holders. I have been holding 18 months and I am well and truly over it!

Cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Yeh am getting well and truely over the rehteric of delays talk is heap time too get a move on !
How much longer must we wait ?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well Im over the shell shock of the last few days and now pondering what going on at ADI ?
18 months later 3 well drilled no results and a share price now below what it was before they even started drilling.
I really think they have too get things moving or the company will just die a slow death.


----------



## Gspot

'Groundhog Day' is turning into 'Nightmare on Elm St', as this stock is really starting to bite. 
Been waiting patiently, while knowing their was doom and gloom coming, and now I'm caught in the storm
What happen to the reports every wednesday? What is CP and Texas Crude telling these guys? We deserve to know!


----------



## Agentm

if it helps a little this is the best i can tell for now..  dont take this as gospel, i am just trying to give you an idea of what i think is possibly about to happen.. 

kunde 3 is being conditioned for a frac, right now, and frac has to be soon imho.

Baker would likely follow.  so two different frac processes taking place..

Kennedy would go after that, and imho, and its just the way i see it, it would be Feb/march.. as the frac has still to happen at kunde 3 and once that is understood they can get a workover at kennedy and set it up.. i wonder if kennedy would also adopt a 4 inch casing to the liner, and not wait for a expensive miscalculation to be repeated?

so three wells will be producing in a matter of 4 -8 weeks imho..

As far as i am aware a lot of visits to Texas by the jvp's and these would reinforce to TCEi the urgency that the directors are all feeling from the shareholders. its clear the kunde 3 frac miscalculated the pressure aspects on their frac and are finding the solutions they need now, so i think the frac at kunde 3 must be getting increasingly closer..

AUT promised big things for november, that was official and it was never explained by them why november didnt happen.. and i saw emails from EME promising things in december.. my own view is that its nearing that stage currently and it cant be weeks anymore, its simply not that complex..

at a guess, and i am absolutley guessing here, i think 7 - 14 days would be the limit for kunde 3.. my thoughts are it should be any moment, but a buffer is always nice to have.. 

as i say its all IMHO.. and real guess work here, but i think its fair to think kunde is close and baker closely behind as they have not much of a frac to do at all and the workover will get that well on production fairly quick.. 

again all IMHO and dyor..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Its not that I blame the company as such but no news can only go on for so long they have a job to do for their shareholders and at the moment just seems to be going no where. How long is a piece of string?
We are all here to see our investments grow not reverse especially over a 2 year period on drilling with no results and high spending.
The ease will have expired and the company will be broke not what I invested for I would rather see a duster than watch my share holding diluted and waiting around for no news.


----------



## tomcat

Lucky_Country said:


> Its not that I blame the company as such but no news can only go on for so long they have a job to do for their shareholders and at the moment just seems to be going no where. How long is a piece of string?
> We are all here to see our investments grow not reverse especially over a 2 year period on drilling with no results and high spending.
> The ease will have expired and the company will be broke not what I invested for I would rather see a duster than watch my share holding diluted and waiting around for no news.




Lucky_Country, I attended a meeting with Chris for Brokers the other day and there was no concern from him regarding a question pertaining to leases, at least nothing to worry about in the short term.

I am glad that ADI have not been sprouting announcements as if they do and they have nothing material to say then the sp will still take more of a dive.  

They are looking for the balance between learning as much as they can from Kunde but are still not prepared to wait another six months for Kennedy to be tested. Believe me I share your pain with where the sp is at the moment but nothing has changed in terms of the play for the last six months. As agent mentioned, the CEO's are heading to Texas and Im sure the testing of Kennedy will be the main agenda point.

The only thing that has changed over the last six months aside for low volume hammering the sp is that kunde is taking longer to frac than expected....this is because they basicallly stuffed up due to the pressure, but they are close to getting that sorted now...the other thing that the entire market seems to have missed is that they are about to test Baker open hole with no frac and then a water frac if they dont get the flow they are after. 

I think it is all about to happen...in the next couple of months  the question is can you...or are you prepared to wait that long...I am


----------



## Lucky_Country

tomcat said:


> Lucky_Country, I attended a meeting with Chris for Brokers the other day and there was no concern from him regarding a question pertaining to leases, at least nothing to worry about in the short term.
> 
> I am glad that ADI have not been sprouting announcements as if they do and they have nothing material to say then the sp will still take more of a dive.
> 
> They are looking for the balance between learning as much as they can from Kunde but are still not prepared to wait another six months for Kennedy to be tested. Believe me I share your pain with where the sp is at the moment but nothing has changed in terms of the play for the last six months. As agent mentioned, the CEO's are heading to Texas and Im sure the testing of Kennedy will be the main agenda point.
> 
> The only thing that has changed over the last six months aside for low volume hammering the sp is that kunde is taking longer to frac than expected....this is because they basicallly stuffed up due to the pressure, but they are close to getting that sorted now...the other thing that the entire market seems to have missed is that they are about to test Baker open hole with no frac and then a water frac if they dont get the flow they are after.
> 
> I think it is all about to happen...in the next couple of months  the question is can you...or are you prepared to wait that long...I am




I'm in for the long haul until we get an answer one way or the other!
This said it doesnt stop me airing my concerns after all it is my money.
Dont get me wrong I think ADI management have handled the whole situation well, no spruiking just straight talking and I know things are out of their hands but they need too put some pressure on which they are probably doing.
Just so frustrating !


----------



## Agentm

tom, i am glad you understood what chris is conveying, the play is similar to what was faced when tackling the burnett shale, and the years of research so far put in by burlington and conocophillips with TCEi and our jvp has come to this point in time, its time to frac and time to learn.

much has been learned by the frac on kunde 1, and kunde 3 and sugarloaf 1. the frac designs out now should give our well a great chance of producing imho..

i also agree on baker, its very very exciting to see it flow open hole, i believe you dont do such a thing unless you have done a drill stem test myself, so imho the baker well was as reported by EME, seen to flow. i think there is little doubt in my mind the result form baker will be nothing short of highly encouraging. But the market has indeed missd the news on Baker completely, andsits in the identical formation kennedy sits in imho.

conoco's kunde 2 is a deep well, like kunde 1 and like our Sugarloaf 1, it has contact with all the three zones, we dont hear much about it but imho it was drilled for the purpose of not just listening in on kunde 3, i believe it will also test the other zones there, and add further understandings to what type of frac process is best suited to the formation.

my view on ADI is basically fairly upbeat.

i view the ADI free carry on the wisteria offshore well as a positive. the farm out to a player the size of cosmo was a very encouraging move.

i view the paid for and finished well of Kennedy 1H as extremely positive as the well had elevated background readings that were "encouraging".. the frac thats about to commence there will certainly be the critical test for adi. no doubt about that at all.

I view SL1 as a success, it was able to determine the sugarkane was in the acreages, and basically formed the idea the playwas stratographic, and widespread, and it confirmed it was identical in all respects to what kunde and baker has.. That well has two zones to test still, but imho may only test zone 2.

i also view the value of the yemen project far more than many do, i think area 7 has great prospects.


i am of the opinion that the coming weeks can potentially deliver more an more positive news, as each well is tested in the sugarkane and brought on production it will become very evident what sort of prospect this sugarkane is. and the current views on the size and nature of the play may have been underestimated imho, as ADI has always had conservative estimates on all of its releases. looking forward to the development of the wells and the news that the formation is producing myself.. 

good luck to all holders..


----------



## Agentm

anyone prepared to sell a few now?

nothing available on the boards at the moment.

nice long weekend coming up. looking forward to the weeks ahead myself.  groundhog day may end soon


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> anyone prepared to sell a few now?
> 
> nothing available on the boards at the moment.
> 
> nice long weekend coming up. looking forward to the weeks ahead myself.  groundhog day may end soon



Who would sell at this price? Bought a few more AUT though. I'll have to review my "end of the month deadline" in view of the price. Just as well I have a flexible plan.


----------



## Agentm

hey nioka,

while your making gains crossing over between the two, i have been quietly watching the TCEI lease buying continue unhindered.

In the past 3 months its just been a non stop flow of lease buying in karnes and live oak. 

In amoungst all this we have seen the slow down of activity on all wells in the Sugarloaf AMI, to the stage where today there is absolutley no activity of any nature on any of our sites.

In the last weeks there has been a lot of activity of different nature in texas, we are seeing a stream of jvp partners visiting texas.

I am not overly concerned with the delays that have been experienced in the last 2 years, these are all accountable to processes i witness, and follow the announcements of a massive land grab on an exciting prospect.

At the AGM i went to in perth, the plan seemed to be to put kennedy on line and then follow up with a program to develop the 20,000 acres.

imho the live oak wells are doing better than anyone understands, and i would expect steady news flows to come through EME in the coming weeks. there are two wells about to be put int production in live oak, and i think kennedy will be the third well to go..

i continue to hold for the bigger picture, and look forward to the developments coming up.. 

good luck if your selling out now, and good luck to the new crews coming in and the long term holders..


----------



## Agentm

Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) is pleased to announce the execution of a farmin agreement earlier today between a number of the AC/P32 Joint Venture parties and Cosmo Energy Exploration & Development Ltd (Cosmo Energy). Under the terms of the agreement, Cosmo Energy will acquire a total 22.5% equity interest in the AC/P32 Licence from the participating farm-out partners by contributing towards the cost of the Wisteria-1 exploration well on a 2 for 1 promoted basis. The promote payable by Cosmo Energy is capped based on an agreed dry hole cost in relation to this exploration well. As a result of this farm-out, Adelphi’s equity interest in the AC/P32 License will reduce from 18.48% to 10.0%, with a remaining cost exposure towards the dry-hole cost of the Wisteria well of less than 2%. Any costs incurred in excess of the agreed farm-in cap such as well completion and testing costs would be funded by Adelphi at its reduced 10% equity interest.
Cosmo Energy is the oil and gas exploration arm of the Cosmo Oil Group, a major Japanese oil refiner and distributor with annual sales of over 2.8 trillion yen. The Cosmo Group already holds interests in several Timor Sea permits including the Tenacious and Audacious oil discoveries some 50 km to the north of the AC/P32 Licence. Further information on the Cosmo Oil Group can be obtained from their website at http://www.cosmo-oil.co.jp/eng/index.html
As a consequence of this farm-out arrangement, the Joint Venture interests in the AC/P32 Licence will now be as follows (subject to standard regulatory approvals):
Coogee Resources (Operator) 22.5%
Adelphi Energy 10.0%
Cosmo Energy 22.5%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited 20.0%
Westranch Holdings (Norwest) 15.0%​Bounty Oil and Gas 10.0%


so less than 2% costs, practically free carry.

cosmo seems also to like the prospect.


----------



## Agentm

it seems Gace Oil did some extensive lease buying, all 36 month leases in 2006, and they are situated in amoungst the zone i have detailed in the map. if you research Grace Oil you wont find them.. NB>>  *it doesnt mean its all the acreages marked*, but there are 14 grace oil leases all up i know about and they total about 3,500 acres from memory.. the area is shared with TCEI owning many leases there also..

our sugarloaf well and kennedy 1H sits below this acreages. now thats an interesting neighbour..  imho we should also own leases in this region..

IMHO the grace oil leases have recently changed hands to some multi national oil company that cant be named by the jvp.. conocophillips would be my prime suspect here!

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well Conoco seem very very interested in the whole area which has too be a very positive.
Just feel they are the ones calling the shots on the whole area that is too be expected I suppose too big too argue with.
See Chris Hodge made a further investment in ADI only small but more of a sign of confidence.
When will we get K1 tested thats my main priority.


----------



## Agentm

kennedy happens after kunde 3 and baker,, feb/march imho..

conoco are in karnes county now, thats big news for me, and it confirms my confidence in our acreages..  this is the first decisive move by conoco to own acreages outright, happy to be holding..

imho news is not too far away, there are signs everywhere that things are cranking up..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Do Conoco have any jvp on these leases ?
TCEI have done well so far they just need to take the next step this is a big play for them as well.
6 months time we will be wondering why we were so impatient for these wells and basking in glory and money


----------



## Agentm

i got it a touch wrong Lucky_Country, grace had always purchased the leases on behalf of conoco, its just now that the name has been changed officially. 

so the acreages to the north must have always been highly prospective, and we know we had to compete against major oil companies for the 20,000 acres we have..

but the story remains, conoco are in karnes county and have a good chunk of the sugarkane there in live oak also.. i cant vouch for atascosia as i have no records for that region.

i gather that some day soon they will be declaring to their own shareholders what the activities are, and how they view the prospect, we have yet to see any sign from conoco officially that they are in the two counties.. and all the jvp's are unable to mention their names in any releases..


----------



## kash

Can we derive any positive news out of their latest report apart from the fact we already have been told - it will be happen soon!!?


----------



## blues

Very little new stuff there except the explanation about water coming into the well while testing zone 3. Looks like the wait continues. My understanding from talking with the JVP's in the last week is they dont know when testing will commence. Could be days, weeks or months. It is about time they got some answers as the shareholders left are well and truly over the wait!

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

looking at zone 3, i think a lot has been learned..

the barnett shale is a good case to observe, they found in the vertical they got deeper water coming into the wells just as sugarloaf 1 has.

this from todays quarterly

"The results of this pressure buildup conducted after the flow tests showed that the pressure was significantly below that expected for the chalk zone based on offset well data, thus indicating that the well is now pressure connected to a zone outside of the target chalk. The water saturated Buda and Edwards Formations have pressures significantly below the objective chalk and similar to the final buildup pressure.
The most likely explanation for the observed gas/condensate and water flows and the changes over time of associated chlorides and other constituents within the water produced is that the frac propagated into the chalk zone but also extended deeper into the Buda and Edwards
Formations. The gas and condensate initially flowed from the objective chalk section along with some water from the frac operation. When the pressure of the gas/condensate from the chalk zone was drawn down to approximately the pressure of the Buda and Edwards, formation water from this deeper interval commenced flowing. The formation water then choked further flow of gas and condensate from the chalk.

In summary, the lowermost zone of the chalk has now been tested to the extent feasible within this vertical well and for the reasons set out above will not be tested further by this well. 
Further testing of the two upper chalk zones in this well has been deferred until after the results of the Kennedy 1H well flow test (see below). "


i am posting a few diagrams from the barnett shale , one demonstrates exactly what sugarloaf 1 has just experienced, and the other demonstrates what process worked the best for the unconventional play, horizontal drilling, with well engineered frac processes. 

so far we have:

Kunde 1 testing the upper zone. Zone 1. no formation water from below

Sugarloaf 1, testing lower chalks, Zone 3 with Frac, Draws edwards formation water, as per barnett shale experience.. 

Kunde 3 about to produce same formation (zone 1) in a horizontal. With a frac..

Baker 1 testing in a shortened horizontal, (Zone 1) No frac


Sugarloaf 1 is merely proving what can and cant be done with the zone 3 lower chalks, and in no way can i see the jvp ignoring the zone 3 chalks for future exploration with horizontals..


----------



## Agentm

with the pending frac of Kunde 3, i think these following diagrams of the use of geophones in the barnett shale best show what the Conocophillips/TCEI camp are currently doing there in live oak.

Conoco have drilled kunde 2 into all the 3 zones, very close to kunde 3. and the geophones used in the frac will pick up valuable data that can determine what type of frac process can best suit the horizontals to aid in understandings and establish and engineer frac designs that will best suit the horizontal wells productivity. they will show exactly whether the frac is inside the zones they want or not.. and if you understand what zone 3 at SL1 brought up from the edwards below, effectively killing the zone 3 production, , then you will also understand why the frac process can be critical to the success of the well.

Our jvp have learned a lot from all driling so far and the two fracs done in kunde 1 and in particular also with sugarloaf 1. these horizontal wells are expensive and TCEI has decided, with the agreement of the jvp's, for them to not duplicate the high costs of drilling a well near kennedy and replicating this process, but because the goelogy is identical in the region, they are saving considerable costs by having the conoco kunde 3 frac and get free carry on the data gathering to then best serve our kennedy well into being a success. this frac of kunde 3 cannot be underestimated in its importance to the understandings of the formation and how best to frac the rock.


i have included 2 diagrams of what the geophones can deliver, and included a rather simplistic diagram showing you how kunde 2 had to be drilled again with its close proximity to the kunde 3 Horizontal. 

imho as soon as they decide to frac this kunde 3 horizontal, a city of pumpers, engineers, and specialists will appear around the two wells and the important data gathering will once again recommence from where it left off a good 6 weeks ago.  imho the timing of that kunde 3 frac is extremely close..

all imho and dyor


----------



## kash

Looks pretty with all those colourful dots. Wish i understood. Glad to know your confidence is high. I hold and will hold because of the potential. Hope it is soon..


----------



## Agentm

sorry i didnt explain the dots too clearly, but what the idea of the geophones are can be seen at this site..

http://www.harbourdom.de/frac_monitoring.htm

your not alone there re the holding. i hold on the potential as well.


this frac was commenced in december 07, but failed due to pressure issues, the frac will happen  any moment imho and then will follow the production data, and confirmation (fingers crossed) that horizontal wells are commercial. Then its on to the business of baker and kennedy..


----------



## mfunksta

I'm guessing the guy who does the press releases is still on holidays.  Or perhaps they've just decided to give up sharing with us less-than-market-sensitive information....


----------



## barney

Patiently waiting as most here are .............  The general market conditions are fairly volatile at present, so it's good to see an "interested" punter accumulating several hundred thousand ADI shares at around 29 cents over the last few days (and not finnished just yet I suspect)  ............ Lets hope that turns out to be "smart money" ............ I think it will be, but I also think that the patience of many holders may be tested before the "real story" unfolds on this play..............  I hold as many as I can afford to atm, but hindsight would have had me holding about 40% more if I had waited  ............. but as I tell my kidz ......... Hindsight is a useless commodity .............  Happy to hold ............. Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

hey barney, you mentioned smart money, i think the situation in live oak could envoke a lot more of that.  IMHO the fact there are only 5 sellers speaks for itself, tighly held pending the kunde 3 and baker results.

i agree on the situation regarding the "real story" and hindsight, no one, not even the management of all the jvp's could have known the area had an unconventional chalks play in it when they formed the jvp, and TCEI has insisted the play be not mentioned for a long time whilst protecting their interests, our interests and buying the acreages in both karnes and live oak.. Allbeit the acreages we ended up with ended up in karnes county, the knowledge that conocophillips have now got the grace oil leases next to us, is enough for me to be equally optimistic on the agreages we have in our jvp.

i am also of the belief no one could have got a major holding or a large position in the share with the minute volumes of the past months..

IMHO the results from kunde 3 and baker will hopefully be exceptional, as i said before, for a company to have pipelines across acreages before even opening up a single well must be showing a lot of confidence in the prospect. 

i am looking forward to the pending results of kunde 3 and baker..


----------



## Lucky_Country

SO when will they test K1 ?
When will we know whats down there will it be before the leases expire ?
When will we hear something on NT ?
Just hangng like a peice of string atm ?


----------



## banska bystrica

ADI is an interesting company in an interesting JVP with some major USA players. I asked my broker about these back in early 2007 when I think the share price was about 80c.
He knew a little about them but asked his oil and gas analyst what his thoughts were.
The response was along the lines of the area historically requires extensive fraccing. It would take years to get results because of the involvement of non-listed companies and he thought the risk was the small Australian JV partners would possibly run out of money before anything significant was known. I didn't buy as a result but with the price down at 29c, it is a lot less risky.


----------



## mpls

Anyone heard that the kunde 3 and baker results are due in the next few days? 

Also is it true that a pipeline is already in place pending the kunde 3 and baker production, is this pipeline use for anthing at the moment?


----------



## Sean K

banska bystrica said:


> I didn't buy as a result but with the price down at 29c, it is a lot less risky.



I assume you mean that because it's market cap has reduced by 2/3rds since it's highs in Jan 07 this makes it relatively 'cheaper'. I am unsure how it is less risky though. In fact, I'm not sure how you calculate 'value' on such a high risk, speculative stock. This seems to be a purely risk/reward play. There's potential for it to do anything really. Punters must calculate their own risk tolerance and their willingness to lay cold hard cash on the line for something whose odds of succeeding are anyone's _best guess_. Good luck to those taking the punt.


----------



## blues

I know that all the JVP's have been over in the USA to meet with the operator to discuss the program and timing for the planned tests. An update is planned around mid Feb. As there hasnt been any news from EME about Kunde/Baker one would have to assume there is going to be more delays! 

Cheers.


----------



## fflintoff

Pioneer still going well in the Edwards trend South Texas:-

“2007 production grew 38% vs. 2006
* Production expected to grow ~25% in 2008
* Drilled 34 wells in 2007 (primarily development wells),
with a similar drilling program expected in 2008
* 9 new field discoveries in the Trend to-date brings total
discovered gross resource potential to 400 - 600 BCF
– One Q3 discovery now believed to be largest new field in Edwards
Trend in last 30 years with gross resource potential of ~150 BCF
* 3 recent wells tested 12 – 16 MMCFPD1 each
* Q4 production essentially flat at 62 MMCFPD, waiting on
facilities expansion to accommodate recent wells (expected
late Q1)
* 50% of >900 sq mi 3-D seismic shoot completed; remainder
to be completed by year-end 2008.”

Credit Suisse Energy Summit 8 Feb 

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/90/909/90959/items/278695/Pioneer_CreditSuisse_revised.pdf


----------



## Agentm

blues,

i am not certain all the jvp partners have entirely finished in texas myself.

as for delays, i think the speculation of more delays is always something that can be predicted in any operation.

My own view on the operations going on in texas is much as before, and i still dont have a problem with anything that is occuring and has occurred, its a matter of waiting for the confirmations of yes or no..

IMHO kennedy is still likely to be pushed ahead and fraced in the coming weeks.


----------



## blues

I hope you are right Agentm. The longer it takes for news to be released the more you would have to think they are having problems with the fraccing and testing process. IMHO. I spoke to Alex late last week and he was still very positive but I got the feeling he was over the waiting as well! Hopefully when Chris gets back from the US we will have some positive news and the testing will start in a few weeks. I think we are all well and truly over the waiting and want some results. 

Cheers.


----------



## Lucky_Country

OK so what is the hold up ?
If TCEI want it all too themselves let them have it just pay ADI us$1 billion for there 20% share.
Then ADI should pay a special dividend of $5 too their share holders and the rest too be spent on progressing the company.
Easy !
Not very technical I know thats AgentM s job


----------



## banska bystrica

I have a conspiracy theory. The US giants want to delay until the JVP's are broke. Then they will acquire 100% and start testing. Don't laugh, my broker didn't dismiss it when we chatted.


----------



## prawn_86

prawn_86 said:


> Not 1st announcement. It will be one Mr Hypothetical 2 chooses to trade.
> 
> And for simplicity lets say Mr Hypothetical 2's money is in a Bankwest account earning 7%pa from today.
> 
> So Mr H 1 currently has 50000 shares initial outlay = $18500
> 
> Mr H 2 has $18500 in his bank account waiting to buy on his choice of announcement
> 
> **Both Mr H's will be overseas for 2 weeks so Mr H 2 is hoping there isnt an ann in that time**




Just an update, as the SP seems to be going nowhere fast.

both Mr H's enjoyed their holidays, but Mr H2 was relieved to see the price didnt run up while he was away.

Mr H1 is currently down 24% and happily holding waiting waiting like others on this thread.

Mr H2 is very happy with his cash in an account and is sitting at roughly $18624 (not taking compounding into account). Mr H2 is still waiting for an announcement in order to jump on board if the price does start to rise.


----------



## Agentm

just curious prawn,,

what do you think will make the sp go somewhere?  your saying its going nowhere fast..   its been .25  and up to .35 and a lot have added the tiny offerings in the lows..  it seems to be at about .30 levels right now..
mr hypothetical may just have missed the lowest buying price by sitting on the side lines..  risk / reward,,  buying at .25 and selling at .35 could have made a handy  71.42857142857143 %

opportunity missed hey!!

As a larger holder in this share i cant buy the amounts i hold in a moment and the circumstances facing all holders and all buyers is that there is not the turnover available for many to get on unless your picking away with tiny trades.

nice to see your soley doing this with only adi, and not with any of the other oil and gas shares on the asf site, its obviously extremely important to you to make a point of what your doing.. but it wont change my trading style at all, i invest for an outcome and hold and add and as i wish.

best of luck..

banska.. what delays is your broker talking about?


----------



## blues

I have spoken to all 3 JVP's in the last week and have noticed a distinct changing in attitude. In the past month or so when talking to them they all trotted out the same line that they are awaiting the results of testing nearby and that the plan to learn from that experience before testing Kennedy. Now you sense and they all mentioned their frustration with progress and that this has been conveyed to the Operator. The JVP's have been or still are in the US discussing issues and timing with the Operator. In my discussions with the JVP's you get the feeling the JVP's have told the Operator to get on with it. I am not sure how much notice they will take of 3 little aussie companies. It was also mentioned by 2 of the 3 JVP's that they expected testing of Kennedy to begin within weeks. I will believe that when I see it!!

Cheers.


----------



## prawn_86

Agentm said:


> just curious prawn,,
> 
> what do you think will make the sp go somewhere?  your saying its going nowhere fast..   its been .25  and up to .35 and a lot have added the tiny offerings in the lows..  it seems to be at about .30 levels right now..
> mr hypothetical may just have missed the lowest buying price by sitting on the side lines..  risk / reward,,  buying at .25 and selling at .35 could have made a handy  71.42857142857143 %
> 
> opportunity missed hey!!
> 
> As a larger holder in this share i cant buy the amounts i hold in a moment and the circumstances facing all holders and all buyers is that there is not the turnover available for many to get on unless your picking away with tiny trades.
> 
> nice to see your soley doing this with only adi, and not with any of the other oil and gas shares on the asf site, its obviously extremely important to you to make a point of what your doing.. but it wont change my trading style at all, i invest for an outcome and hold and add and as i wish.




I agree that there are many other trading styles and that everyone has their preffered style. Thats what makes the market what it is.

The reason i am doing it for ADI is that it has constantly been talked up about how progress is been made and that results are never far off or must be coming out soon.

I also stated that buying into a downward trend has risks, hence the 2 different styles of the hypotheticals.

I also stated that Mr H2 would be buying on what he considers a major announcement, not trading 'small' ranges. A lot of posters here seem to think that if the right peice of news does come through then there will be a huge huge gain on offer, which is what Mr H2 is after. Although that 70 odd % would have been nice, it wasnt due to any announcement, hence didnt set off an alert.


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> I agree that there are many other trading styles and that everyone has their preffered style. Thats what makes the market what it is.
> 
> The reason i am doing it for ADI is that it has constantly been talked up about how progress is been made and that results are never far off or must be coming out soon.
> 
> I also stated that buying into a downward trend has risks, hence the 2 different styles of the hypotheticals.
> 
> I also stated that Mr H2 would be buying on what he considers a major announcement, not trading 'small' ranges. A lot of posters here seem to think that if the right peice of news does come through then there will be a huge huge gain on offer, which is what Mr H2 is after. Although that 70 odd % would have been nice, it wasnt due to any announcement, hence didnt set off an alert.





happy to comment on this again, regarding the results never being far off, can you be specific about what announcements you are expecting.

re trading styles, i dont get yours at all, you put money in the bank and dont have the balls to trade,, whats that about????


as for the 70% gain, you say it had nothing to do with any announcements. you are toally incorrect on that.   on the 21st january two announcements were made, both of which were positive to ADI. one was NWE announcing cosmos as a partner in the timor sea deal and the free carry of the next offshore well for adi, and the other was the roadshow presentation announcement..  the sp went up 70% on that alone!!  which is shocking decision making on your part imho, why do you choose to miss an opportunity like that and then have the gaul to ridicule a stock you dont have any shares in and say the sp "has gone nowhere" when you clearly missed the 2 announcements and simply wont accept your error! its an insult to those that added to say the sp is going nowhere prawn...  they were smart, your inabilty to see it speaks for itself..

get real prawn, your timing is hopeless and if your making poor judgements like that and missing 70% jumps, then dont come on a thread and say the sp is going no where..  you simply dont like the share and as a moderator your able to ridicule a share without fear!  if i did the same on any thread i would be called up for it prawn,, the share went up 70% and you simply dont know how to invest at the right time.. 

a 70% jump is not a "small range" prawn.. you may not have the potential to see a major announcement, but cosmo energy is no small fry and the timor sea deal is a great prospect, its a major announcement and if you care to read the one adi put out later you will see how they feel about it..


prawn you dont need to be hypothetical any more, if you remained neutral and didnt make degrading comments on the shareprice because you missed two announcements and a 70% leap, and now you want mr hypothetical to leap on board some other point,, its a joke prawn.. 

you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> happy to comment on this again, regarding the results never being far off, can you be specific about what announcements you are expecting.
> 
> re trading styles, i dont get yours at all, you put money in the bank and dont have the balls to trade,, whats that about????
> 
> 
> as for the 70% gain, you say it had nothing to do with any announcements. you are toally incorrect on that.   on the 21st january two announcements were made, both of which were positive to ADI. one was NWE announcing cosmos as a partner in the timor sea deal and the free carry of the next offshore well for adi, and the other was the roadshow presentation announcement..  the sp went up 70% on that alone!!  which is shocking decision making on your part imho, why do you choose to miss an opportunity like that and then have the gaul to ridicule a stock you dont have any shares in and say the sp "has gone nowhere" when you clearly missed the 2 announcements and simply wont accept your error! its an insult to those that added to say the sp is going nowhere prawn...  they were smart, your inabilty to see it speaks for itself..
> 
> get real prawn, your timing is hopeless and if your making poor judgements like that and missing 70% jumps, then dont come on a thread and say the sp is going no where..  you simply dont like the share and as a moderator your able to ridicule a share without fear!  if i did the same on any thread i would be called up for it prawn,, the share went up 70% and you simply dont know how to invest at the right time..
> 
> a 70% jump is not a "small range" prawn.. you may not have the potential to see a major announcement, but cosmo energy is no small fry and the timor sea deal is a great prospect, its a major announcement and if you care to read the one adi put out later you will see how they feel about it..
> 
> 
> prawn you dont need to be hypothetical any more, if you remained neutral and didnt make degrading comments on the shareprice because you missed two announcements and a 70% leap, and now you want mr hypothetical to leap on board some other point,, its a joke prawn..
> 
> you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer..
> 
> all imho and dyor..




AgentM, you are a tool.

You have been ramping this stock for near on 18 months and in that time it has lost more than 2/3rds of its value.

You'd be a pretty good used car salesman I'd reckon, because ADI is a dog and a joke.

And the only bad trading involved in this is holding in it like you seem to be doing. And lashing out at those who do see what a joke this stock is, makes that even more apparent.

If you guys weren't so busy spooning Mr Forke, you might be able to see it for what it is.


----------



## Agentm

chops_a_must said:


> AgentM, you are a tool.
> 
> You have been ramping this stock for near on 18 months and in that time it has lost more than 2/3rds of its value.
> 
> You'd be a pretty good used car salesman I'd reckon, because ADI is a dog and a joke.
> 
> And the only bad trading involved in this is holding in it like you seem to be doing. And lashing out at those who do see what a joke this stock is, makes that even more apparent.
> 
> If you guys weren't so busy spooning Mr Forke, you might be able to see it for what it is.




chops your just a insulting and abusive,, as usual..

firstly if i was ramping then this would happen..

6. Any post that is simply a blatant ramp of a stock will be deleted. Continued ramping will result in the suspension of your Aussie Stock Forums account. 


and as for the code of conduct on abuse.. try and follow it

2. All members will treat other members with the utmost respect at all times. This means insults, name calling, personal attacks and the abuse of other members in any way are strictly forbidden. Please, treat other members as you yourself would wish to be treated. Offenders will be warned once and then have their account suspended from Aussie Stock Forums for a period of time to be determined by the administrator.

but i gather this wont be the case with you and you will continue on without being called up for it..

cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> chops your just a insulting and abusive,, as usual..
> 
> firstly if i was ramping then this would happen..
> 
> 6. Any post that is simply a blatant ramp of a stock will be deleted. Continued ramping will result in the suspension of your Aussie Stock Forums account.
> 
> 
> and as for the code of conduct on abuse.. try and follow it
> 
> 2. All members will treat other members with the utmost respect at all times. This means insults, name calling, personal attacks and the abuse of other members in any way are strictly forbidden. Please, treat other members as you yourself would wish to be treated. Offenders will be warned once and then have their account suspended from Aussie Stock Forums for a period of time to be determined by the administrator.
> 
> but i gather this wont be the case with you and you will continue on without being called up for it..
> 
> cheers




So when you effectively say to a mod, "you don't have balls", that's not an insult?

Ramping can take many forms. Continual posting when nothing is happening, to me, is a ramp. Trying to persuade others to buy is a ramp. Insinuating that others don't know what is what because they aren't buying is a ramp. I have read nothing of yours that has come to fruition. Continual speculation on your behalf, when nothing is happening is a ramp. But as always DYOR and IMHOO. 

To me, ADI is terminal. If you were able to short it, you wouldn't have been stopped out on a short trade since November.


----------



## Agentm

chops_a_must said:


> So when you effectively say to a mod, "you don't have balls", that's not an insult?
> 
> Ramping can take many forms. Continual posting when nothing is happening, to me, is a ramp. Trying to persuade others to buy is a ramp. Insinuating that others don't know what is what because they aren't buying is a ramp. I have read nothing of yours that has come to fruition. Continual speculation on your behalf, when nothing is happening is a ramp. But as always DYOR and IMHOO.
> 
> To me, ADI is terminal. If you were able to short it, you wouldn't have been stopped out on a short trade since November.




you so blind you cant even quote in context chops..

"you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer.."

if you think i am ramping then report it, the mods are checking everything and you can abuse freely and have  no consequence for it, thats all i see..

as for your own version of ramping..  claims of posting when nothing happens.. i dont agree.. i post information about the play and all of which has come to fruition..

your opinions on adi are well known chops.. and your constant abuse to me never ceases..


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> you so blind you cant even quote in context chops..
> 
> "you either have the balls to invest and take the risk for the reward or you dont,, thats clearly the only way to make headway on a O&G explorer.."
> 
> if you think i am ramping then report it, the mods are checking everything and you can abuse freely and have  no consequence for it, thats all i see..
> 
> as for your own version of ramping..  claims of posting when nothing happens.. i dont agree.. i post information about the play and all of which has come to fruition..
> 
> your opinions on adi are well known chops.. and your constant abuse to me never ceases..




You can't even quote the passage I was referring to.

I'm sure you are very well aware of what you are doing. Not too many threads attract this level of mod activity. Because I'm sure they are bright enough to know when someone is ramping something without it being a blatant ramp. I don't think you did any favours when you bulk messaged that "Keep The Faith on SL" private message.

And FWIW when I see complete nonsense posted, I'll pipe up, like here. Your comment that I responded to was complete bollocks. 

And I'd like to know what exactly has come to fruition. The numbers you posted at the end of 2006, or the extensive drilling programme?

I only criticise you in this thread, so any claims of constant abuse are spurious. And your thrashing only confirms my suspicions that you must be losing an absolute packet on this.


----------



## Agentm

www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/member.chops_a_must 

This message is hidden because chops_a_must is on your inore list




i have to say chops, its the first time i have put anyone on ignore here, but your just not worth reading.. i have yet to see a post from you that has not called the stock a dog and where you have not been abusive towards me.. if you wanted to discuss adi i would be read some your commentary, but unfortunately  your not into discussing the share..


----------



## prawn_86

Firstly guys, 

Both cut the abuse. 

Chops is right in saying that you are out of line by saying I "dont have the balls" Agent. However he probably also did cross the line a couple times.

Secondly lets not forget why I did this scenario in the first place.



prawn_86 said:


> I'm no chartist, but the ADI chart certainly looks very very unhealthy to me.
> 
> If I was looking to buy this, even on fundamentals, I would wait till the chart at least leveled out, especially in current market conditions.
> 
> Double (or triple) top has formed and now in a vicious downtrend. Resistance previously to this 9 month chart was at $1.






prawn_86 said:


> RB,
> 
> I can find plenty of stocks that have gone sideways or dropped a lot over the same time period as that chart.
> 
> My point is, in current market and stock trending conditions you are almost assured to lose value on paper in the short to medium term if no announcements come.
> 
> If you wanted wait for an announcement, then why not just set up an alert so you can check every announcement they release and jump onboard early if you think it is worthwhile.
> 
> At least this way your $ will be working elsewhere and not in a downward trend, and you can still have the upside of a big announcement. Even if it gaps up a bit, it is probably the same as if you buy now and the value drifts lower in the current trend.
> 
> EG (purely fictional):
> buy now @ 37c hold for a month price at 30c.
> watch for announcement and buy then. Price gaps from 30 - 36c (20% gap) and all else is equal plus your cash has been employed better over a month.
> It wouldnt work this 'nicely' though




So far my fictional scenario was on the money.

Thirdly,

Agent you are beginning to destroy your credibilty. You have been saying for months that results must be soon. Here is just a few that I have randomly clicked on page numbers and found. They have been edited for brevity due to the length of some of the posts. But all are essentially stating results must be soon, along with some other info.




Agentm said:


> next few weeks are news weeks according to tom at EME..
> 
> lets see if he is right..






Agentm said:


> _The Kennedy testing will commence soon after one of the Sugarkane horizontal wells has been tested. We don’t have a firm timetable as yet._
> 
> i shouldnt think we should put the directors emails on forums too much, it may not be good practice as they usually dont expect them on the forums.. but none the less, the news is accurate as i see it..






Agentm said:


> time for the curtains to be raised on the show i hear, kunde results any day, and then kennedy to follow. i cant account for the share price as in my view its great value for the potential outcome, dont ask me to buy more as i cant..  i am not in this share for a 50 bcf outcome, i fully expect the wells will deliver far more..






Agentm said:


> this kennedy well would have to be close to completion now in terms of drilling, i gather the next good news is the announcement of puting in production casing.






Agentm said:


> That kennedy 1H well is looking very encouraging
> 
> Kennedy 1H is getting nearer to its completion, forward well program must be just around the corner..
> 
> looking good imho




Finally, unless the discussion is relevant to ADI or the hypothetical scenarios and put forth in an appropriate manner, further posts on the matter will be removed.

Please contact me via PM if there are any problems with this, so as not to clutter this thread further.


----------



## ScottMG

I for one appreciate all the research your do AgentM. Daily i look for your updates. Back in Oct / Nov we used to get Wednesday company ann almost every week. I believe in this stock and only wish i had more cash around to buy more. Keep up all your good work AgentM and dont be put off by others negative comments.


----------



## prawn_86

ScottMG said:


> I for one appreciate all the research your do AgentM. Daily i look for your updates. Back in Oct / Nov we used to get Wednesday company ann almost every week. I believe in this stock and only wish i had more cash around to buy more. Keep up all your good work AgentM and dont be put off by others negative comments.




There is no doubt that Agent puts in a hell of a lot of research.

The main point my contrarian view is trying to make is the fact that the opportunity cost of holding this one over the past few months has been massive. The company always seems to be getting closer to releasing results, but never actually do.

Ultimately something will happen be it up or down, but my "negative" view, is just an alternative, that sometimes holders do not like to hear.


----------



## megla

I too am happy with Agent's postings. I figure anyone wanting to get into this stock would have *plenty* of information provided to them with over 3000 posts! 

On a side note, with the losses being experienced by many of us and the negative sentiment around, this banter going on between these two is some good comedy - is just too funny - you can't pay for entertainment like this


----------



## Gspot

prawn_86 said:


> There is no doubt that Agent puts in a hell of a lot of research.
> 
> The main point my contrarian view is trying to make is the fact that the opportunity cost of holding this one over the past few months has been massive. The company always seems to be getting closer to releasing results, but never actually do.
> 
> Ultimately something will happen be it up or down, but my "negative" view, is just an alternative, that sometimes holders do not like to hear.




I don't like hearing your 'negative views' prawn, but your right. Been going for years now and still just around the corner. No offence to Agent M and his info but........
I posted a while back, that the yanks could delay results, as to hurt the little jvp's, and this still seems likely.
Not being racist, but I don't trust Americans.


----------



## Agentm

Gspot said:


> I don't like hearing your 'negative views' prawn, but your right. Been going for years now and still just around the corner. No offence to Agent M and his info but........
> I posted a while back, that the yanks could delay results, as to hurt the little jvp's, and this still seems likely.
> Not being racist, but I don't trust Americans.




in an unfortunate circumstance, if i answer prawn i risk him coming down on me and then face being banned, those quotes by prawn, each and every one of them, have followed with a news announcement, 

i have pointed out to him via PM that each of those quotes did follow with announcements from the jvp's, and have asked the post be removed.. 

if its my credibility on the line, the i expect to be able to be allowed to post the announcements prior to and after each of those quotes to prove that what prawn says about my credibility is false.. 

further he is claiming i abused chops, utter fancy, i have only had a one way barrage of abuse from him for over a year, and a further claim i abused him, again utter fancy, i deny both of those claims.

for me, to be misquoted by prawn and have this follow is staggering..

_"Finally, unless the discussion is relevant to ADI or the hypothetical scenarios and put forth in an appropriate manner, further posts on the matter will be removed.

Please contact me via PM if there are any problems with this, so as not to clutter this thread further. "_


so i guess this post gets removed and no  matter what i wont be able to answer and correct allegations on my credibility.. pretty poor imho


----------



## Go Fast

To whoever it was looking to short ADI - I'm happy for you to borrow 200,000 of mine to sell through the market at around todays prices..... I'm confident with the story & the risk vs reward equation. I'd love to see you chasing that volume in the event of good news. Could cost you alot of money. Problem with shorting - limited upside but unlimited downside.

There's still further news flowing around about the fields nearby. I'm not surprised there was a seller or two today.

In my mind it's a April/May story.... so waiting til then.


----------



## prawn_86

Agent,

Once again...

As I have said before, it is not that news hasn't been released by the company. Hell at one stage they were releasing updates all the time.

It is the fact that still nothing seems to have happened, especially on the SP front.

The opportunity cost of buying into these guys when they were 80c or $1 has/would have been massive if people continued to hold. Especially as it has seemed this whole time that the 'big' news is only a few weeks away, or just around the corner, or should be here soon etc etc.


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> Agent,
> 
> Once again...
> 
> As I have said before, it is not that news hasn't been released by the company. Hell at one stage they were releasing updates all the time.
> 
> It is the fact that still nothing seems to have happened, especially on the SP front.
> 
> The opportunity cost of buying into these guys when they were 80c or $1 has/would have been massive if people continued to hold. Especially as it has seemed this whole time that the 'big' news is only a few weeks away, or just around the corner, or should be here soon etc etc.




prawn, 

happy to reply..

the hosston sands was not so much a big deal and updates came through all the time, that target ended some time ago, i hope your not confusing the two?? these prices your quoting was in the era of the hosston sands.. that target was found to flow but not at commercial quantities..

nothing will happen on the sp front unless the formation flows in the horizontal wells, so you may feel stressed out about it, and others may be, but for me i am not concerned about the daily sp..

if i was selling today i would be concerned, but i am not, i am holding for the outcome of the testing of the wells in the sugarkane.

the sugarkane is an unconventional play, the way i see it with respect to the sp, is that the play cant be realised and hold value until the commercial flow is achieved from the wells drilled so far. currently conoco has two types of wells to be tested, one is a cased well that is to be fraced and flow tested and put on production, the other is a horizontal well that is open hole and wont be fraced. these two wells are experimental wells, like kennedy can be considered to be.. i will post some info from adi to explain, but essentially , the share price is just a reflection of how optimistic people are in the prospectivity of the sugarkane. 

what is known about the suagrkane is that it flows on the vertical, and has 3 times the gas value in condensate, so its very very attractive as a prospect..

what is known is that it flowed from the baker horizontal, with massive mud weights in it, so its likely to flow very nicely with no mud against the formation, or thats the theory and thats why its to be tested open hole..

but adi said this about kennedy.. 

Based on the joint venture’s interpretation of this play’s
potential in the area combined with production and early
appraisal drilling results from the nearby Sugarkane Field
(which is operated by a major international oil and gas
company), our joint venture has successfully pursued
an aggressive leasing program which has resulted in our
acreage position having increased to over 20,000 acres
of mineral rights for the Austin Chalk play. We have also
now commenced the drilling of the first horizontal well
within our leases *which is designed to provide further*​
*critical reservoir and production data*.


now prawn, when your drilling a well designed to do that, you have to also understand theres not a lot of cash around to drill a bunch of them.. tcei asked the jvp if they would wait for kunde 3 to frac and thereby relieve the jvp of high costs of frac experimentation.. the jvps agreed, and thus far the wait for the frac that began on kunde 3 in november 2007 is still to be announced. we are aware the fracing happened in december, and imho they are still continuing the frac program and experimentation as before.

so there will be little sp relief imho until the results from the wells in live oak being worked by conocophillips are finshed up ..


The delay in testing was due to a number of commercial
and operational factors including an extensive
leasing program to enable us to lease additional
land to fully capitalise on any discovery. We believe
we have discovered a new play in this part of Texas
– so with 80 square kilometres (20,000 acres) under
lease, we are now in a position to fully benefit from a​successful outcome.

this for kennedy in the last quarterly:

The timing of the testing program remains subject to
the finalisation of an optimal program design as well as equipment availability but the intent is that the well will be tested as soon as possible.​

The timing of the fracture stimulation and testing program is yet to be confirmed by the operator, Texas Crude Energy, Inc. pending optimisation and joint venture agreement of the program design as well as availability of suitable equipment.​



but in terms of the big news!! there seriously isnt any big news around the corner, for me the formation flows vertical, did so at baker horizontal, and is about to be put on production test at baker imho.. and for others the formation is no good, they need to save the world from people investing in the share, and conocophillips has some conspiracy going in trying to squeeze out the jvp!! what a joke that is, when they are doing all the R&D right now!​ 
so when the wells flow near by prawn, there wont be any big news,, everything is already understood and out there.. sorry to dissappoint..​


----------



## resourceboom

Chill out dudes, the wait goes on, business as normal for the JVPS 

I was originally interested in Prawns thoughts on the 2 mr hypotheticals, as I find it an interesting dilemma.  I have a core holding of JVP shares, but am thinking of getting some trading shares, but think I will probably only jump in once we finally get some good news (read flows announced).

Hopefully the sp doesn't get further caned in the meantime.


----------



## wipz

Get off AgentM's back guys, I don't hold this stock but his research and analysis, investers pay top dollar for.... He is doing a great job and correct me if i'm wrong but sharing information is what this forum is all about? 
You're doing a great job mate and a majority of us appreciate your contribution to the forum.

Cheers


----------



## Lycon

wipz said:


> Get off AgentM's back guys, I don't hold this stock but his research and analysis, investers pay top dollar for.... He is doing a great job and correct me if i'm wrong but sharing information is what this forum is all about?
> You're doing a great job mate and a majority of us appreciate your contribution to the forum.
> 
> Cheers




I agree I have read this thread for the past 6 mths and have found Agents Info to be interesting to say the least.
Keep it up mate


----------



## prawn_86

wipz said:


> Get off AgentM's back guys, I don't hold this stock but his research and analysis, investers pay top dollar for.... He is doing a great job and correct me if i'm wrong but sharing information is what this forum is all about?
> You're doing a great job mate and a majority of us appreciate your contribution to the forum.
> 
> Cheers




While there can be no doubting the amount of time Agent puts into his research, that does not stop this stock from being a dog.

According to a majority of posts things are moving forward however this is not reflected in the share price. The company does not seem to be actually getting anywhere, despite the number of press releases.

What I fail to see is that if all this information is available and this company is so good then why is the share price languishing?? 

If all this information had such a dramatic effect on the company then its price would not have fallen from $1 to 25c in just over a year. And it is still trending down.


----------



## nioka

I've been away for a few days and have logged in hoping for some good news from one of my stocks. Had a little good news but as per groundhog day none from ADI. I am a little frustrated as usual but not as much as some it seems. OK call this one a dog and who can argue. Is it a dog with a future. That is the Question. (with a capital Q)
Without the research done by Agentm I would have given this one away long ago. I don't consider it ramping by him. Enthuasium maybe but nobody has shown any of his information to be incorrect and a lot can be shown to be correct. His posts have convinced me to stay with it but that makes him in no way responsible regardless of the outcome. I made my own decision as has everyone else. 
 To cover my investment I have traded ADI and AUT (as per previous posts) and continue to do so in a small way. All my ADI is now "free carried". I suggest anyone else could do the same. By switching from ADI to AUT as the relationship between their SP changes you can maintain your percentage interest in sugarloaf and at the same time recoup some of your capital. Wouldn't it be a pity not to be holding if the elephant stampede starts.


----------



## jackohelp

prawn_86 said:


> While there can be no doubting the amount of time Agent puts into his research, that does not stop this stock from being a dog.
> 
> According to a majority of posts things are moving forward however this is not reflected in the share price. The company does not seem to be actually getting anywhere, despite the number of press releases.
> 
> What I fail to see is that if all this information is available and this company is so good then why is the share price languishing??
> 
> If all this information had such a dramatic effect on the company then its price would not have fallen from $1 to 25c in just over a year. And it is still trending down.




I am surprised at you, being a moderator too. Isn't the idea that you stand on the sidelines and moderate rather than wading in with your size 11's.
No doubt you'll moderate this, but you really should take a long hard look at yourself.


----------



## prawn_86

jackohelp said:


> I am surprised at you, being a moderator too. Isn't the idea that you stand on the sidelines and moderate rather than wading in with your size 11's.
> No doubt you'll moderate this, but you really should take a long hard look at yourself.




Tell me why i should have a look at myself? 

Moderators are ordinary members of this site. We help to enforce the forum rules on a volunteer basis. We are not employed by or associated with ASF in any way other than that we have agreed to volunteer our time to help police the forums. So when a moderator posts in a thread people should automatically assume that we are posting as an ordinary member of this site. 

There are no posts that i have removed from this thread, although if it continues off topic i would rather it be via PM than in this particular thread. All i am doing is putting forth a contrarian negative view, in comparison to those that have put forth optimistic views. I am happy to discuss the good/bad points of my views, but feel that i should not be singled out as a moderator. If it were any other member you would focus on what they have said, rather than focusing on their credibilty. The same rules apply to me as to everyone else.

Just because members are confident of a stock, does not mean it is necessarily a good one.


----------



## Lucky_Country

This thread is deteriorating rapidly.
Any info on ADI good or bad is what I come here for not petty squables !


----------



## barney

There is no doubt that the SP is languishing.  Are we are all crazy for investing in ADI? …. Who knows? ………… We can only speculate on the info we have to date, and the only thing that has changed is the time factor involved.  

It won’t surprise me if the SP drops even further cause we humans are impatient buggas ………. But even with the price dropping I note the several hundred thousand shares accumulated by “someone” over the previous week or so at 29 cents (They obviously have their quota now since the buying has stopped) ………….. And somebody/s has been accumulating AUT over the last week as well ( about 1.3 million shares) ………… 

At a time when the sugarloaf project is being down ramped by many, and the market in general is acting like a yo-yo on steroids I find it interesting that these “investments” are going on ……………… Chris Hodge was happy to put down about $20,000 of his cash the other day …………… We all know 20 grand is not enough cash to prop up the SP, so if the project is a total dud he was basically throwing his money away !!    Is he that crazy?? (Time will tell) ……….  Perhaps he saw value for his money …………… Maybe the ones buying atm are the clever ones ……………  Maybe the clever ones will push the price even lower by dropping a few large bundles on the market now at low prices to scare the last of we punters who are losing on paper, while they discreetly accumulate at even lower prices …………. Certainly worth keeping an eye on the price action atm …………..I’m holding and will try to accumulate more if  the “smart money” starts to work this one over …………….. If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time.   Good luck.


----------



## Agentm

prawn, is every stock that trends down a dog in your book, or only adi?  you see no upside in it, yet the investors in it do..  

your claim is to be a moderator with a special misson, to come on the thread and openly claim things like the stock being "a dog" and "the share is going nowhere.."


how can anyone debate that with you, that level of debate, like what chops does, coming on the forum and saying those types of statements is very simplistic,emotive and childish in my view.. and detracts the level of discussion into a school yard barney (no offence implied barney) your not backing it up with any facts, and when i spend the time to explain to you why the sp is like it is, you dont debate it, you ignore the response and just come back and say you "What I fail to see is that if all this information is available and this company is so good then why is the share price languishing?? " then proceed to call the share  "a dog"..   your hypotheticals were interesting.. this current foray is certainly anything but..

i ask you to look at my reply and stay on topic, and if your level of input is going to be "this share is a dog".. then i will put you on ignore and suggest all to do the same here..

as for your complaint about people defending their credibility, that wouldnt happen if you were not making the challenge on peoples credibility in the first place, dont complain about something you yourself have generated!!

so please prawn, stay on topic, and  allow the thread to be disscussion on adi with those whom are investors in it,

i am getting tired of this thread being trashed this way.. if you want to deteriorate it then i cant stop it, your a moderator after all, but i can do things like put you on ignore, thereby allowing me to discuss the adi share with those i think are genuinely intersted in the share like i am.

keep the discussions on track please 

many thanks...


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well AgentM I am genuinely interested in ADI why wouldnt I be I have put my money into them ?
That being said how long must we wait till we really know whats down there I'm getting a bit fed up of speculation and feel we have waited long enough as Im sure everyone involved in ADI does including management.
Im all for keeping partners happy but are they bleeding us dry !


----------



## Agentm

cut and paste form HC, just to keep you guys in the loop, i am pretty curious about this new conocophillips well in karnes county..

i am keeping my eye on this one..

permit BORDOVSKY A7 - Well # 1

api pending

horizontal wildcat 14000 feet

17 miles NE of kennedy 1H


conocophillips maybe checking out the extent of the chalks play??? who knows??

as i say, i am keeping a close watch on it myself.. very curious what thats about


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country

i think the news is really out there already, my view is that kunde 3 and baker are being worked, and when a result is definitive, the jvp's will announce. i agree on the wait, its been some time alright. 

As for whats down there, its been tested long term in the vertical at kunde 1, and imho the baker well is the really interesting one, its wanted to flow on them already with them throwing massive mud weights at it, no wonder they are thinking of doing a water frac and letting her rip!! that one is of real interest to me..

as is this new conocophillips bordovsky horizontal well..


i will post a google earth image to get you an idea of where it sits..


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> imho the baker well is the really interesting one, its wanted to flow on them already with them throwing massive mud weights at it, no wonder they are thinking of doing a water frac and letting her rip!!







Agentm said:


> as is this new conocophillips bordovsky horizontal well..
> 
> i will post a google earth image to get you an idea of where it sits..



How far away is that AM? Looks to be about 40km. Is this relevant to ADI? I'm sure it is. Like anything in the OD belt is the next OD...

Chart wise, I haven't seen a more consistant down hill run than this. God knows why anyone would hold onto a specualtive stock with few if any fundamentals when it is trending short/mid/long term down.  

Good luck long term holders/speculators....


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> How far away is that AM? Looks to be about 40km. Is this relevant to ADI? I'm sure it is. Like anything in the OD belt is the next OD...
> 
> Chart wise, I haven't seen a more consistant down hill run than this. God knows why anyone would hold onto a specualtive stock with few if any fundamentals when it is trending short/mid/long term down.
> 
> Good luck long term holders/speculators....




hey kennas 

i did mention it in my post that it was 17 miles from our wells.. i had heard rumours that cp were interested in the play to the north, and i know what sort of extensive work they have done there over the past 6 - 12 months, and some holders have privately speculated to me that CP are thinking the play is far more extensive than the jvp themselves do.. the conocophillips Bordovsky well is perhaps look in that region. so for me i am keeping a close watch on it myself.

as for the chart, i am sure that your not telling anyone who holds this stock anything they dont know already. thanks again for posting it, i wouldnt mind if you also posted them around the time of those long waited for announcements of flow in the horizontal wells, maybe the TA will show a different profile then. as for your opinion that you have never seen a more consistant hill run than adi.. your not looking hard enough i think kennas, i have seen plenty of stock do far worse than adi.. i'll post AFG for you so you get the idea of a top stock looking pretty sad. 

good to see your wishing the holders all good luck kennas.. my research tells me a lot of luck is not needed, i see too much evidence of conocophillips doing far to much work on wells and pipelines and 2d's and 3d's north west and east for me to convinced like many are that this play is exactly what the jvp have announced it to be... for me i remain in until the outcome of the sugarkane..

cheers


----------



## blues

I would think at this price ADI are a good buy if you have a long term view. They have a market cap of approx. $26 million and they have $7 million in cash. With projects coming up in Yemen, the Timor Sea and hopefully Indonesia next year there are other things happening. At present ADI is all about the Sugarkane which with ADI at about 26 cents has been almost written off I believe.

Although I must admit the longer it takes to frac and test the Kunde well the more concerned I get. You would have thought by now that they should have a result of some sort!

I have traded them along the way but have kept a core parcel as I am still a believer. Luckily for me I am free carried on my remaing parcel but I must admit my patience has just about worn out. Unfortunately for most there isnt the volume in the share at these prices to get out even if they wanted too.

Just my thoughts.

Cheers.


----------



## Lucky_Country

No updates too their shareholders is my gripe.
The reports they issue is just the same old rhetoric yes they are a good long term play but Ive been in long term already !


----------



## prawn_86

Once again i ask:

If all this research which is freely available, shows that this company has so much potential, why isnt the share price performing?


----------



## juw177

prawn_86 said:


> Once again i ask:
> 
> If all this research which is freely available, shows that this company has so much potential, why isnt the share price performing?




Well you can say that about any stock that people speculate on. (I have no interest in ADI but I was just reading this thread for some reason)

I do see where you are coming from though. There are people that post about research and upcoming anns when that info has already been factored into the price, then SP may tank when the news is confirmed. (or it may run).

Information is everywhere. How it is used is up to the person.


----------



## resourceboom

Hi Prawn.

If this information has been available for 18mths that might explain why selling pressure now is stronger then the "research informed buying". Even with all the information and research garnered its still speculative until we know definitive flows, timings etc etc.  Also specs are very much out of favour at the mo.

Sure it would have been better to buy in now than say 6 months ago, but who knew timing would be so delayed, and it may still be delayed further, but at some stage things will progress.  There may still be a chance to get in on news before big gains, but I am comfortable to accept this.  I tend to mostly buy and hold for a few years anyway to see good gains.

I do not believe in "Efficient Market Theory" and have little interest in charting.  Risk and Reward is more to my liking 

Each to their own. 



prawn_86 said:


> Once again i ask:
> 
> If all this research which is freely available, shows that this company has so much potential, why isnt the share price performing?


----------



## barney

prawn_86 said:


> Once again i ask:
> 
> If all this research which is freely available, shows that this company has so much potential, why isnt the share price performing?




Hi Prawn and welcome to the ADI thread. I assume you must have a passing interest in this one as many punters do, if only for the "just in case" scenario. 

Re the share price not moving, to me, it is simply because the only thing that makes any share price move is ............. 

1) Institutional or Major Shareholders buying or selling  or 

2) Traders pumping or dumping ............. (Ok There are probably a couple more reasons, but you get my point)

There are no Traders left in ADI at present because the stock is in limbo until definitive news hits the wires, and no Trader is going to park his money in a long term venture .............. 

The Insto's will turn up eventually imo, but again not until some concrete news is announced .......... I suspect there are probably a lot of potential shareholders waiting in the wings, but the "serious" ones (who can make a share price move) will not enter until the time is right ....

The major shareholders are sitting patiently (and some still buying) ..........  and no I'm definitely not one of them ..... unfortunately!!... and most of us small punters already have our affordable quota, so in these volatile market times, small spec stocks like ADI which are testing investors patience, have only one direction to go ..............    

As you and Kennas have pointed out, this could be seen as a "dog" of a stock, .........  or alternatively, an opportunity to buy in at what could turn out to be rediculously low levels ............... (I admit if the Sugarkane turns out to be a fizzer, those rediculous levels could well be to the downside      .......... My research says that won't be the case, but I'm not the kind of trader I would take notice of 

I personally don't think that Conoco/P would be sniffing around these leases spending millions of dollars in search of "peanuts", but that is obviously speculation on my part  ..............   I will admit, even though the potential may be high, the delays/long time frame involved may be the biggest problem that ADI faces

In the end we all make our own decisions .......... I've made mine, ...... even though I'm sitting on substantial paper losses, I'm prepared to lose my dough based on what I know (bit of poetry there for the artistic ADI'ers  ) ......... I wish all holders well ...... I think it could be a rocky ride, but I think the end result (maybe one, two or three years) will be well worth it ........... End of ramblings ................ (for now)


----------



## Agentm

i think the way your thinking sounds right to me barney, adi recently did a roadshow, i think many would be looking at what results the wells bring out.

i am curious about new conocophillips bordovsky permit in karnes county. if its a chalks well i would say EME could well be a partner in that one, so time will soon reveal if its a prospective chalks well part of the 16 well program of eme or not i guess..

the near term is still waiting on any announcements from EME on the two wells currently being worked on by conocophillips..

groundhog days continue relentlessly for the long term holders!


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well lets hope managements visit too the US has done some good and put a bit of pressure on everyone there too get things moving.
Everything seems to have ground too a halt even management wont be happy at the slow progress.
I hope all long term holders get rewarded including myself !
The big question is when ?


----------



## Agentm

what ever has been decided, i think the news of that will be released very quickly, the most pressing news for me is the kennedy 1H well, and i would like to see that one started as soon as they can, not for the sake of anyone else but for my own investment here.. 

currently i have mapped all the conocophillips leases in the adjoining counties, and for karnes county, and for me its staggering how fast they have worked in the past 2 years to secure the acres. now that it is coming to light there are many a different oil company name used to buy leases in conocophillips name, and once you discover each of them, the picture gets so large it becomes hard to believe. and suddenly a lot of wells appear that once were thought to be too far off, and out of reach of the sugarkane, and those regions are now imho very open for debate right now.. be it edwards alone or edwards and chalks both, whatever the formula is, the one thing suddenly becoming very obvious, is that conoco is drilling away in all different locations now.. and with the lease buying they have undertaken, the size of this sugarkane play has potentially become substantially larger than the region that the jvp has displayed in their presentations.. 

my own personal belief right now is that the play itself is way way bigger than anyone is aware of. and i am very very sceptical on two wells, and possibly a third well that is about to be drilled in karnes county, i now see them on trend, and now have to changemy view on things as i cannot discount them as chalks wells at all.. i know i did earlier discount entirely the notion that a poster put forward here, to that someone who posted that well a while back i apologise, and i remember then that i did not believe the region the well was in was a point of interest to sugarkane,, that person gets an apology from me on that score, and who ever he was, that was very perceptive back then to associate it to the chalks,, i think right now, i have to change my opinion on that well and a few others and not discount that region as out of the sugarkane play.. imho it goes a long long way further than ever expected..


for me i am now viewing this prospect in a very very different light, even until this week i had no idea of how advanced conocphillips were in the region, their leases are adding up more and more month in month out.. and they use a very clever group of names to buy the leases.. and the landowners would never have really known that they were dealing with CP imho.. 

the next months ahead will be interesting to me, i am now certain many more drilling permits will have to appear in karnes county and in live oak. and its no longer a case of sit and wait, the lease buying appears to be very very advanced and the permits on those areas are giving me the impression the conoco outfit is not concerned to alert the locals they are on the scene, and are now exploring the entire play imho without fear. which is a big change from the past..


----------



## Lucky_Country

So AgentM what do you think this play holds for ADI will they develop it or sell it off too CP ?
Do they really have a choice too keep the project is it too big and expensive for them or can they do the job and develop the field if it does become a proven multi tcf field ?


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> So AgentM what do you think this play holds for ADI will they develop it or sell it off too CP ?
> Do they really have a choice too keep the project is it too big and expensive for them or can they do the job and develop the field if it does become a proven multi tcf field ?





that i have no idea about, i think the jvp will at least put in a lot of development wells.. what happens tomorrow is anyones guess..


----------



## Agentm

Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Projects Update
---------------

AIM listed Empyrean, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in
Germany and the USA, today announces the following general projects update:

Sugarloaf Block A, Onshore Texas, USA 
-------------------------------------

KUNDE 3

The TCEI JV Block A-1 Well has now had 41/2" casing run that ties the 41/2" liner in the horizontal section of the well all the way back to the surface.

An attempt to fracture stimulate the first interval has resulted in the frac
sand unable to be pumped even with high pressures (12,000 psi). Initial analysis suspects poor contact between the casing holes and the reservoir, as this zone in the reservoir was trying to flow whilst it was being drilled indicating good permeability. The operator is conducting an analysis of this with a possible remedy of bringing in a higher calibre perforating gun to gain better contact with the reservoir.

Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest in this well. A further update will be
given as significant developments occur.

KUNDE 2

The TCEI JV Block A-2 Well is still planned to be used to monitor the fracture stimulation of the TCEI JV Block A-1 Well, above, following which it will be completed for production testing itself.

Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest in this well. A further update will be
provided as significant developments occur.

BAKER 

The TCEI JV Block A-3 Well has had a workover rig arrive on site and currently there is 7' casing to a depth of 12,272', then a 61/8" open hole to Total Depth at 15,100'. This open hole section of the well was trying to flow whilst being drilled and is therefore the focus of testing operations on this well. A packer has been set at 11,507' with 27/8" tubing run back to the surface. The open hole still has 15.9+/- ppg drilling fluids in it. Present operations are the pulling of the packer at 11,507' following which the drilling fluids will be cleaned out of the open hole for an open hole flow test.

As mentioned previously, following the open hole test, fracture stimulation may be required depending upon flow rates from the open hole test.

Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest in this well. A further update will be
provided as significant developments occur.

Sugarloaf Block B, Texas, USA
-----------------------------

The Sugarloaf-1 Well is currently shut-in awaiting the results of Block A well testing before the operator concludes plans for completion and testing of the zones of interest.

Empyrean has a 6.0% working interest in this well. A further update will be
provided as significant developments occur.

The Kennedy-1H Well has had 41/2" liner run from Total Depth back to the
surface. The operator is awaiting the results of Block A well testing before
finalizing completion and testing operations on this well.

Empyrean has an 18.0% working interest in this well. A further update will be provided as significant developments occur.



and so endeth the sermon.........


----------



## Lucky_Country

Even more delays by the sound of it !
Are these guys professionals Im begining too wonder.
So we are awaiting all of block A to be tested could be years the way they are going


----------



## mick z

Agentm said:


> The Sugarloaf-1 Well is currently shut-in awaiting the results of Block A well testing before the operator concludes plans for completion and testing of the zones of interest.




I thought the above was the test well...... I give up I am lost now.
This is becoming a snow job.

mick


----------



## Agentm

mick..

dont follow what you mean..

i have been researching all the acreages along the 3 counties, all acreages have been purchased by advocates or front companies, and i am aware of a lot that are handed over to conocophillips.

the play is easily 60 miles long, it has conocophillips wells right along the entire play.. some in their name, and a few in other names..

once conocophillips have seen this they have gone to work with people like TCEI whom have been instrumental in getting acreages in liveoak and karnes, and a few other advocates in dewitt county and the east section of karnes..

i dont view the play in our little 200,000 region anymore, and i cant discount any conocophillips wells that are in this trend as not being a chalks targetted well anymore..  the yellow line is some 63 miles long, and along this trend conocophillips name is all over the place, there are many jvp's imho on this sugarkane.. we are certainly not alone and the wells are starting to show up for me.. more research for me now along the entire play, thats for sure..

for me i see very well orchestrated and planned acreage grab over many counties over two years, with wells being tested and now permits and wells going in all along the trend. if the doubters believe the sugarkane is dead in the water, then so be it. i would like to say unless there is conclusive proof to the contrary, i am unable to believe conocophillips is doing this lease buy up and expansion on this play on a guess. that is not how conocophillips operate.. my own view is that they know the play is sound and commercial, and they have gone ahead on the program on the basis of not guessing anything! as long as i se conocophillips continue east west north and south of us,, then i am happily holding.. this operation has been going on right under your noses and no one has noticed anything!!


----------



## prawn_86

Agentm said:


> . that is not how conocophillips operate.. my own view is that they know the play is sound and commercial, and they have gone ahead on the program on the basis of not guessing anything!




How could they possibly know this Agent without having done much (if any drilling).

Seismic data and GPR has been proven to not have the most accurate track record.

I find it strange that you can think it is a sure thing with very little drilling, and no flow so far (that im aware of)


----------



## Agentm

prawn, as a moderator i would like you to please show me where i said the play was a sure thing?  your trying to paint me as a ramper and thats entirely not the case.. i am not sure i appreciate your use of terms or the sentiment you portray.. 

the conocophillips organization does not buy acreages like this on a guess.. they have studied the play for some time, they took over the program from burlington, reevaluated the program, and then after doing their own research went ahead with it.. hence the delays on suagrloaf initially.. if burlington and conoco have both drawn the same conclusions, then i am happy to invest on that basis..  and as for seismic data not being the most accurate track record, which seismics are you referring to, and which technology is CP using?

prawn, your view is not the same as mine, i have invested on what conocophillips are doing and the money they have spent on acreages and testing of wells. and there is proven long term production on the sugarkane. just because your not prepared to read the presentations and data from this thread or by the jvp's doesnt mean you can make statements that the sugarkane cant produce..

please understand conocophillips would not have gone throught with the lease buy up and well program just on a show in a well..  they have done their homework , you dont believe it , so be it,, i happen to understand it and i certainly know the formation flows.. hell i wouldnt invest if i knew the formation wouldnt flow!! and conoco wouldnt be in this for a moment!


----------



## mick z

agentm,

if this land is so hot why isn't adi and the other jvp's grabbing there share of the spoils. ??

i've given back $150,000 profit waitng for an outcome on these wells...... so yes iam not happy. there is only one company winning at the moment.

looking at a sp in the low 20c tomorrow

mick


----------



## Agentm

mick z said:


> agentm,
> 
> if this land is so hot why isn't adi and the other jvp's grabbing there share of the spoils. ??
> 
> i've given back $150,000 profit waitng for an outcome on these wells...... so yes iam not happy. there is only one company winning at the moment.
> 
> looking at a sp in the low 20c tomorrow
> 
> mick





mick 

imho the jvp's were all bound by contracts dissallowing them to buy adjoining acreages, and i ask you to direct that line of questioning to adi, not to me.. they could perhaps confirm it for you..

also they announced the 20,000 acres were contested against major oil companies..


i am not going to be drawn into sp debates today mick. so i wont comment on that aspect myself.


----------



## mick z

well what was stopping texas crude from buying up the leases and farming out to the jvp's, that would seam to be the right thing to do buy the jvp's, and not stand by watch cp take them up.
somethink just seams amiss with all this and it's costing me and others dearly.

re- kude#1  5000 cfpd  that is far from commercial, if you put a small enough choke on a well it is going to last a lot longer than if it was open full, do you see where iam coming from.?

if they put a bigger choke on kude #1 it would not run at 5000cfpd.

mick


----------



## prawn_86

Agentm said:


> prawn, as a moderator i would like you to please show me where i said the play was a sure thing?  your trying to paint me as a ramper and thats entirely not the case.. i am not sure i appreciate your use of terms or the sentiment you portray..




Agent,

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. You also do not need to say something is a sure thing to be ramping a stock.

Below is a selection that you have posted from as far back as 13 months ago.

Admittedly hindsight is a good things, however I am merely highlighting the fact that you have been super confident for years now, despite the falling share price.



Agentm said:


> remaining as confident as ever on this share..






Agentm said:


> the austin chalks are a definate, there is no doubt at all in my mind the well is successful. $2+ and multiple (double figure) wells to expand and develop the field..
> 
> 
> I wount be selling any shares in ADI, today tomorrow nor next week.. I am 100% certain of the success of the secondaries in the well. I not only believe the secondary have mmet the highest expectations that were estimated, I believe the rumours and figures distributed last year are accurate and have been unable to find any reason to doubt their integrity.






Agentm said:


> I am super confident on the secondaries in SL, i believe both the magnitude and importance of the find is beyond what anyone can  understand. The reasons for my continuing to purchase the share in the past month or more is soley on the reasoning that the return on the secondaries carry more than $2 to the sp. i see little downside. if i had to punt on the well and guess, my money is in the area of multiple 100's bcf on the secondary..   and 1.5 tcf on the sands..






Agentm said:


> trading on adi is still quite solid, with not many prepared to sell lower anymore as we near the business end of the explorer stage and the transition into a producer...
> 
> interesting days for adi. still cant see any downside..




Hopefully my view provides some balance to the thread, so others reading it have more than one point of view. But of course people should research thoroughly themselves anyway.


----------



## mick z

prawn,

in the early days we all thought the same as agentm.
i think we are getting a bit testie due to all the delays.
also prawn you seam to respond to agentm's posts all the time whats with that, your not storking are you. LOL

MICK


----------



## Agentm

prawn..

thanks for that, stand by all that 100%..  please go find some more

add this please.

i am 100% confident on the austin chalks play that adi are currently exploring. thats 100% confident, and i intend to add more to my holding based on my findings that i have posted here on this forum..

btw i could not put you on ignore which was a real pity..

Sorry prawn_86 is a moderator/admin and you are not allowed to ignore him or her.


----------



## Agentm

cash position is fine, the last quarterly updated the cash position and its very healthy. i have not seen any announcements from adi re them stating its a con job.. can you please post a link to that announcement.

capital raising is a certanty, absolutely agree that it looks that way, the wells in live oak are close to completion, and baker was certainly showing the signs of open hole flow.. with the data from those wells and kennedy it would be a good time to go to the market post kennedy. At the agm, the strategy stated then was to get the first well, kennedy 1H on production then the jvp's would have to eventually go to the market and raise capital and adi indicated they would look at a balance of capital raising and debt, and then proceed with the forward well program. 

prawn, 

i can put you on ignore, so i have to unfortunately take you on again..

thanks for the time you took on going through all my posts, may do the same for you soon

the falling share price is not going to change my view on the play, if your going to criticise the sp, then do so, but leave me out of it, i have posted all the reasons for me staying in the investment and holding, yet that seems to draw your attention and you feel as a moderator its vital for you to single me out for being confident in my decision. regardless of the sp, regardless of the stock market turmoil , i will hold this stock for the outcome of the sugarkane.. end of story prawn..

i support anyone with conviction prawn, with balls, and i look at people who have large holdings in the share and they have conviction to hold and buy more.. i also do the same, add some more.. and if the price falls to .10 then i will be adding all the way to that level..

can you please stick to the topic, you have not posted anything where i have said its a sure thing, and conveniently you have not posted the posts where i have a had a red hot go at adi, nor posted the high risk high reward statements.. and lastly,, this forum is not for financial advice, i try my utmost to post IMHO and DYOR.. you have never posted that in your attacks on me personally.. so prawn, i put you on notice, all my comments are IMHO and DYOR ok.. 

I notice that your not critical of anyone buying the share i see prawn, your only critical of me personally for holding a stake of my portfolio in this share.. 

so prawn, on topic please. this part i am interested in, can you please answer my question to you on the seismics that COP are using, you seem to know about them.. 

"Seismic data and GPR has been proven to not have the most accurate track record."


mick ..

_well what was stopping texas crude from buying up the leases and farming out to the jvp's, that would seam to be the right thing to do buy the jvp's, and not stand by watch cp take them up._
_somethink just seams amiss with all this and it's costing me and others dearly._

_re- kude#1 5000 cfpd that is far from commercial, if you put a small enough choke on a well it is going to last a lot longer than if it was open full, do you see where iam coming from.?_

_if they put a bigger choke on kude #1 it would not run at 5000cfpd._

_mick _


the first part of what you said has already happened, the sugarloaf AMI jvp was exactly that, the TCEI gave 20,000 acres to the jvp, it was not the same acres that our jvp had for the hosston sands target, that deeper target basically went under the edwards and towards the kunde wells, i think the bigger part was in live oak.. put it this way, if the hosston sands was a comemrcial success, the deep wells would be drilled right on the same site at the kunde wells, and we would own the minerals for the deeps below edwards somewhere and beyond, and the shallows, the chalks mineral rights would be in the hands of concocphillips.


further to what your saying mick, TCEI has worked extensively in live oak and karnes bee and atascosia. they have secured a lot of land, and have farmed out to form other jvp's. conocophillips has also done their own lease buying, and they have extended through live oak into ganzales and de witt.. 

its a dog eat dog menatlity in texas, and TCEI does not owe the jvps anything, they formed the jvp to test the deep target, later they gave the jvp an opportunity for 20,000 acres on the sugarkane, and i personally think they gave that in return to stop the jvp form going out and doing exactly what you have said they should have done. chase the acreages themselves,, you may notice none have done so, so my view is that they simply cant... the jvp got into this play by chance, pure luck mick, dont forget that.. the fact its taking years for conoco and tcei to put this together doesnt matter to me, i have my own views on the risk reward, and have my position, i will hold for the outcome. as long as conoco is there, so am i..

re the vertical kunde 1, the well has so far brought back 3.2 million to conocophillips in 12 months. and thats in zone 1. they have not opened up zone 2 or 3 yet. the well had a 40% decline then steadied.. they are looking at the play in terms of horizontal wells currently..

all imho and dyor


----------



## mick z

thanks for the post agentm,

in a way i wish cp would make an offer for our 20% interest. say $100mil would be nice. lol
then we can move onto ac/p32 which i have high hopes for.

drilling logged in for july.

we just can't keep on with all these delays it's killing the sp
and that's what it is all about the sp, i really don't care what cp are doing, ADI need results and now.

mick


----------



## Lucky_Country

Mick Z $100 million ?
Multiply that by10 maybe but AgentM wouldnt accept that after all his hard work.


----------



## mick z

just thinking...... if the 100mil didn't make the sp go up at least we might get a divvie.  lol

nah..... it's not funny any more is it

mick


----------



## Agentm

mick z said:


> thanks for the post agentm,
> 
> in a way i wish cp would make an offer for our 20% interest. say $100mil would be nice. lol
> then we can move onto ac/p32 which i have high hopes for.
> 
> drilling logged in for july.
> 
> we just can't keep on with all these delays it's killing the sp
> and that's what it is all about the sp, i really don't care what cp are doing, ADI need results and now.
> 
> mick




it seems the two issues that gravitate over the jvp is very obvious to all.

1/ the concern over the sp falling

2/ the concern over the the progress on the play 

regarding the SP, which is a subject i try to steer clear of as it attracts heated remarks.. i say this

Not much turnover this year on the sp, i remember the weeks where on a day the share turned over $1mill and $500k ..

$52 mill rolling year turnover, so $1 mill a week average.......

so far this year,,,,,,,,, $711,157 .. amazing turnover hey!!


i think the share remains tightly held, with little demand from the buy side. my view is that should geniune buying interest return, and that would happen with any chalks horizontal showing promise, then i believe the demand for the jvp's share may return and deliver a far stronger share price.. All imho and DYOR

over the past 5 days i have researched the entire leasing situation on all the permits related to conocophillips... the story is very very interesting for me and just reaffirms the vastness of this play..

when i map the leases in each advocates name, i get solid blocks of leases in each advovcates name, joining on end to end along that 60 - 70 mile long tend, so i can see very clearly why conocophillips would be slow on wells being tested.. but now that they are putting drilling permits in right along the trend, my view is is that they are not so concerned any more on the secrecy part of the equation, the 90% of landowners are signed up, and it takes some years, and a lot of effort to sign up the thousands of leases they have sucured.. our little JVP is only aware of our little universe, i have said all along that to be aware that the play could easily be larger than the jvp has been letting on. back then the average punter was having trouble grappling with this 

SUGARKANE PLAY AREA
>3 TCF and ~500mmbbls in​ 
upper Chalk zone only​ 
Based on area, productivity & 160 acre spacing
.STILL LARGELY UNTESTED​ 
so as far as the investors in sugarkane are concerned, the world of sugar is 200,000 acres.. my view is that conoco has secured acreages that multiply it many times over..​ 
IMHO the unconventional chalks play picked up by the burlington TCEI jvp years ago, which conocophillips took over, was given the green light a long time ago by conocophillips, they have secured an amazing tract of acreages, and our jvp by default has been fortunate enough to have 20,000 acres right in the middle of it.. (well actually its left of centre really)​ 
I have seen a lot of leasing activity in karnes, liveoak, dewitt, and gonzales and atascosia and bee, the play seems to even run through to lavanca as well with lease buying! i look forward to the upcoming results from the chalks wells in live oak, and i hope the other wells conocophillips are drilling right now are not completed and put on production before our kennedy well is!​


----------



## Lucky_Country

No news just like watching paint dry !
3 times as many buyers as sellers and not many willing too give their shares away.
When can we expect some news thats the question ?


----------



## Sean K

Lucky_Country said:


> No news just like watching paint dry !
> 3 times as many buyers as sellers and not many willing too give their shares away.
> When can we expect some news thats the question ?



3 times as many buyers as sellers 

Perhaps my market depth is out of whack. 

Not too many willing to give their shares away? Is that a positive thing? Those who are willing have let it drop 8%...


----------



## sam76

kennas said:


> 3 times as many buyers as sellers
> 
> Perhaps my market depth is out of whack.
> 
> Not too many willing to give their shares away? Is that a positive thing? Those who are willing have let it drop 8%...




you think that's strange, Kennas.

Check out the buys v's sells on EKA

Now almost 9 to 1


----------



## Lucky_Country

kennas said:


> 3 times as many buyers as sellers
> 
> Perhaps my market depth is out of whack.
> 
> Not too many willing to give their shares away? Is that a positive thing? Those who are willing have let it drop 8%...




Cant understand why you would sell now ?
At its bottom testing results within the next month Id hope or at most 2 months.
ADI also have a habbit of springing suprises eg Finish testing SL 1 then 1 week later they have producede 59 boe.
There way of rewarding the few loyal holders left.


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:


> No news just like watching paint dry !
> 3 times as many buyers as sellers and not many willing too give their shares away.
> When can we expect some news thats the question ?



 You just have to accept that ADI is groundhog day revisited. One of these days you will wake up in the morning and find a new and different day has dawned. Maybe it will be fine and sunny with plenty of fruit on the vine or ? . We won't go into the "or".


----------



## maverick11

Groundhog day alright!  Not much 'rewarding' going on until they can get their act together over in texas.  There is simply no way what they are doing can take this long and they have had many a c*ck ups along the way just to keep things ultra fun.  I am still confident however that _eventually_ they will get commercial flow.  I think all the loyal holders who wanted in have been in for 18months now and are in a position where they can't afford to sell.  That is probably also why the volume is so low, just my opinion.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well the frustrating thing about being a shareholder in ADI is the uncertainty during these times.
Things obviously take time and cannot be rushed but waiting for some news is just a grind but why sell ?
Shareprice has dropped dramatically but ADI not alone in that respect but with that in mind ADI s prospects are far greater now than they were before they started drilling with the news that we do know.
3 zones of interest, 59 boe produced, K1 horizontal drilled with good readings and almost 2 years closer too an outcome than where we were in 2006 yet the sp is lower !
You gotta think there is some lack of reasoning in the market lately !


----------



## Agentm

nioka

now that eka is practically the same value as adi, and lets say there was any volume available in adi which there isnt, would you think a few EKA  holders could see the benifit in jumping to adi, as it has a considerable higher leverage in sugarkane? then jumping again back to eka if adi rose any time in the future?  your way of trading these jvps has got me thinking..


if anyone out there is following the pioneer wells and looking closely at the completion reports like i have been, can you PM me if your observing the same thing i am regarding the number of pioneer wells that as horizontals appear to be in the austin chalk and ending only just inside the edwards formation. .  its becoming very interesting that conoco are appearing so close to them and imho chasing the same targets..  particularily interested in recent completions like the sawfish cluster in dewitt...


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> nioka
> 
> now that eka is practically the same value as adi, and lets say there was any volume available in adi which there isnt, would you think a few EKA  holders could see the benifit in jumping to adi, as it has a considerable higher leverage in sugarkane? then jumping again back to eka if adi rose any time in the future?  your way of trading these jvps has got me thinking..
> ...



Probably worthwhile but the volumes being traded make it hard. So far my last switch, AUT to ADI, hasn't paid off and I would have been better to stay with AUT. If only we had been to the future and knew what happened to Sugarloaf. My concern is that we hang on and lose out with a takeover at the last minute. I've had that happen to me with Aztec and Allegience. I made some profit on both but not the big gain from production. That is the good side of ADI, there is very little turnover, making a takeover less likely unless ARQ give in.
 Of course the market cap of EKA is only half that of ADI and with a 12.5% share of sugarloaf against 20% for ADI, they are probably at a comparative value. The way things are dragging they may both run low on cash.
 In other words and judging by my confusing answer, I don't know.


----------



## Agentm

sorry nioka,, missed the reply..

hindsight is a wonderful thing. and your observations on the takeovers is interesting. i dont think adi has any ambition to be taken over, arq is too big a block. and i believe outfits like ADI and EKA were set upfor the sugarkane myself.. the O&G exploration sector is very well represented, maybe a lot of consolidation and merging will occur as time goes by..

things are progressing imho, the amount of time since the last eme announcement makes it hard to believe why the announcements that should come out of live oak are not upon us. we see conoco finish a well in dewitt and about to start one in karnes county and we are still waiting for some positive indications on the austin chalk horizontals of conocophillips in live oak. if conoco are happy to drill away in karnes then our jvp should feel equally confident as well imho..


----------



## Agentm

10% of the this years turnover in one trading day..  a touch out of character with the amazingly low volumes for the past months..

so is something about to happen then?


----------



## blues

I was told by one of the jvp's yesterday that the Baker well testing has been waiting for a pipeline to be connected and they now believe that has been done. Perhaps testing of that might be close.


----------



## TheIceMan

Anything would be better than what is occurring ATM. Call it "death by a thousand cuts"? Maybe comparing it to water torture would be a better analogy. Most of us just want to be put out of our misery.

Highest daily volume since mid Nov last year.


----------



## Mad Punter

It is finely good to see some volume, but at a 2% drop probably not the best way to head. I would like an update from Captain Chaos as to where we are in Texas, even just timeframes will shut us up for another month. I now know how Geelong felt waiting to win the AFL grand final, it is a long time between drinks. If we find what we are after the drinks are on me !!!!!


----------



## Sniffer

Agentm said:


> 10% of the this years turnover in one trading day..  a touch out of character with the amazingly low volumes for the past months..
> 
> so is something about to happen then?




In January ADI wrote "Further updates will be provided upon commencement of these operations." Refering to the completion of K1H. You think they will tell us before they start pushing water down the tube?
Maybe we will know more soon.


----------



## Agentm

Sniffer said:


> In January ADI wrote "Further updates will be provided upon commencement of these operations." Refering to the completion of K1H. You think they will tell us before they start pushing water down the tube?
> Maybe we will know more soon.




The completion of kennedy 1H will not happen until operations in live oak are advanced to a stage where it can be of use to TCEI.. imho we will definately be updated on everything once TCEI is clear on what they can successfully do in that well..


----------



## TheIceMan

Calling AgentM - I need your opinion (or anyone else for that matter).

What is going on today? Nearly 2 million shares traded so far today. Virtually all at 0.225. I can understand that there could be sudden interest in this even though there is no news to suggest it. What I can't understand is, where have all the sellers come from?

This was tightly held, then all of a sudden, plenty of sellers to accomodate the buyers at 0.225???

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me - but what would I know?


----------



## barney

TheIceMan said:


> Calling AgentM - I need your opinion (or anyone else for that matter).
> 
> What is going on today? Nearly 2 million shares traded so far today. Virtually all at 0.225. I can understand that there could be sudden interest in this even though there is no news to suggest it. What I can't understand is, where have all the sellers come from?
> 
> This was tightly held, then all of a sudden, plenty of sellers to accomodate the buyers at 0.225???
> 
> Doesn't make a lot of sense to me - but what would I know?




Could be just a transfer of holdings, but the fact that half of the the last 500,000 share order is still in the queue indicates someone is/has been happy mopping up the sellers who want to get out  (If that order stays at close of trade I wonder how many sellers will take advantage?  For the moment they have gone quiet) ............. There will no doubt be a few stale bulls on the road to recovery, but if todays price action turns out to be fair dinkum, then the current level should be close to the bottom ..... thats my take on it anyway .... could be wrong.
 ..... Very little change on the major shareholders as at 29th Feb ..... Will be interesting to see if that 2 million traded shows up there next month ............ Very happy to see those trades go through today ..... I see it as positive .... If it is accumulation, there is every chance the money is "smart" imho ...... time will tell of course.


----------



## Agentm

TheIceMan said:


> Calling AgentM - I need your opinion (or anyone else for that matter).
> 
> What is going on today? Nearly 2 million shares traded so far today. Virtually all at 0.225. I can understand that there could be sudden interest in this even though there is no news to suggest it. What I can't understand is, where have all the sellers come from?
> 
> This was tightly held, then all of a sudden, plenty of sellers to accomodate the buyers at 0.225???
> 
> Doesn't make a lot of sense to me - but what would I know?




hey iceman..

any comment on the 2 mill trades would be speculation..

i would say top 3 or 4 must be involved..


----------



## Lucky_Country

We have been through the crossed trades scenario before late last year if I remember correctly.
Not entirely sure but think it may have happened just before they started drilling K1 so with that in mind maybe testing K1 will be almost upon us.
Good luck too all holders there is light at the end of the tunnel imo


----------



## Agentm

Meridians Drees well, a horizontal well next to conoco's Bordovsky well is worth keeping an eye on. two miles west of the conoco well..

the Drees well is a chalks well, and if you research meridian you will see they have an extensive history in chalks. I wont comment too much on the leases in the region just yet, but it makes for interesting research if you look at meridian resources. they have announces several jvps in the chalks basin on their website.  they have extremely successful wells in polk county..

nice to see another experienced explorer on the austin chalks scene in karnes county


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> We have been through the crossed trades scenario before late last year if I remember correctly.
> Not entirely sure but think it may have happened just before they started drilling K1 so with that in mind maybe testing K1 will be almost upon us.
> Good luck too all holders there is light at the end of the tunnel imo




i think conoco is taking a serious look at things.. they tend to do things at their own pace..

this is the 2d seismics they have done in the region.. pretty comprehensive and i am told they have begun, and continue to still be doing, a 3D seismic of the region also..


----------



## blues

What about doing some testing?? Would have thought they have had enough time to get things sorted at Baker & Kunde and get testing under way. Anyone heard anything on the testing front?

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

the only ones who really know that are the operators of those wells, conocophillips.

imho baker is about to test, but as for kunde 3, i couldnt even hazard a guess on that front.


----------



## Agentm

next permit is the hawthorn permit,

they have done extensive seismics in the region there.. 

6 or so miles north of our wells, right on the edge of our leases..

benyon is the name.. as its that close to our leases i will again be keeping a close watch there..


----------



## fflintoff

From AUT

"Since the effective completion of leasing activities in late 2007, the Sugarkane and Sugarloaf participants have been independently working to determine the best way to develop and produce this unusual and potentially significant new discovery.

Austin Chalk fields are generally developed using horizontal wells with reservoir stimulation (hydraulic fracturing), however each new field development has critical differences relating to the local characteristics of the reservoir. These differences are important economically and are established through the application of Austin Chalk engineering expertise and systematic evaluation of drilling and stimulation methodologies. For classic Austin Chalk fields this optimisation process has taken several years. The Sugarloaf participants are fast-tracking the ‘learning curve’ for the Sugarloaf Project by drawing upon the best available knowledge and personnel. Recent application of consultants with relevant experience in Austin Chalk field development are preparing the plans for commencement of the next phase of development. These plans will require the drilling of further horizontal wells and appropriate stimulation of the Kennedy-1 Horizontal well."


----------



## Agentm

besides the very interesting webcast from meridian, the press release does mention this...

http://www.b2i.us/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?f=1&BzID=1440&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=0&ID=4630

http://www.tmrx.com/press_releases/


"Levering off the knowledge and experience of the Company in this play, the Company has expanded beyond its currently established boundaries to explore and test acreage located in two separate south-central Texas areas. Meridian is building leasehold positions and has budgeted four test wells in these areas for calendar year 2008. *It is anticipated that in these areas, the production will have a higher liquid (oil) content than its current production in the initial wells in east Texas*. The expanded play areas are unproven and in the early stage, therefore, as they are tested, the Company will release additional details on these opportunities as they develop."


higher liquid than the current wells they have, which have exceptional liquids!!

i listened to the webcast and i feel they are also discussing another play in the area, one i think relates to something pioneer has recently discovered.. we shall see in the future if its also in our acreages i gather..

so with meridian conoco in the wesrt and east, meridian in the east, hawthorn in the north, and pioneer in the south, and the karnes county and its neighbours having the heaviest activity in lease buying in texas.. i think we are in the thick of it alright.. exciting days ahead imho..

all imho and DYOR


----------



## Lucky_Country

News seems too be slowly filtering out regarding the Sugarkane play hopefully this is a sign that things will start too move in the area.
Regarding the jvp well it will be interesting how they will develop this play if K1 a sucess it has been  5 months almost since the drilling of K1 moves must be imminent surely  I have a mortgage too ADI !


----------



## Agentm

frac for kennedy and new well..

nice way to start the week..  

time for the fun to begin and relief for the investors..


----------



## Sean K

Agentm said:


> frac for kennedy and new well..
> 
> nice way to start the week..
> 
> time for the fun to begin and relief for the investors..



Fun? FUN??? You have been running with this for some time AM and the only 'fun' people might have had is if they'd been able to short it. 

I think you must start to question your investment decision with this stock.

Not that I am a qualified advisor or anything. 

Just a concerned member of this investment community.


----------



## blues

Hi Agentm,

What do you mean "frac for kennedy and new well.."? Havent seen anything announced??

Sure hope that is right.

Cheers


----------



## blues

Have just read todays announcement from AUT and answered my own question. Looks like we might finally get some movement.
Thanks.


----------



## Lucky_Country

AgentM is correct as he said check out AUT presentation.
Last chance too get some ADI at these levels.


----------



## Sean K

Lucky_Country said:


> Last chance too get some ADI at these levels.



Rediculous statement. Please justify this with some facts and figures. Really, really, testing the boundries here...


----------



## Agentm

hey blues..

sugarloaf will go horizontal, and the kennedy well will now be fraced.

more wells to go after..

if you follow AUT, and look at their presentation its pretty well covered..


*The Operator is **preparing a frac design of the #1 Kennedy and a proposal for drilling a new well at Sugarloaf soon. Additional wells will follow.*


----------



## Lucky_Country

kennas said:


> Rediculous statement. Please justify this with some facts and figures. Really, really, testing the boundries here...



Watch and learn !
Pure speculation will drive the sp upwards let alone positive results and being put into production seems like all is go now.


----------



## Agentm

the presentation is very informative, and for me its the first one that is really getting into the production potential of this formation.

conocophillipshave done extensive 3d's and seeing them in the presentation is good to see, the jvp can use their data from that to decide on where to drill the next wells, but we will see sugarloaf now go horizontl, which will mean 2 horizontals in a the near term fully completed. i have not seen the permit for sugarloaf as yet, but imagine it will use the patterson rig that is practically finished in de witt county.

using the meridian resources wells as comparisons in polk county is very interesting ,they have almost identical formations there.. and have had brilliant success there.. i recommend listening to their webcast from the 13th march, and reading their webiste.. they are very capable, and welcome operators on the sugarkane in karnes county..

http://www.tmrc.com/home/


----------



## Sean K

Lucky_Country said:


> Watch and learn !
> Pure speculation will drive the sp upwards let alone positive results and being put into production seems like all is go now.



Like betting at the casino?

Again....rediculous statement....

Into production on what? Someone elses field?


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country

i think those on the sidelines would look at  the share again. its been an eternity for all the jvp partners, and conoco have gone ahead with a full scale 3d of the region to pinpoint their wells, so they are in no rush to put any wells into production, the years of experimentation at the kunde and baker wells, as well as the hook and bordovsky wells (and a few others)  has given them enough data to buy the expensive leases they have and  to now map the region.

our jvp has the concerns of the investors to deal with, most of them have only this play to get them anywhere, and the excessive time delays has taken its toll on their respective shareprices.

although kennas is very correct in saying what he is saying, i am none the less convinced the sp may be seeing more positive days than negative in the days to come, with the usual experctations driving up the sp prior to results coming out.. but AUT has made it clear the jvp is going ahead irrespective of what is to come from baker and kunde 3.


----------



## Lucky_Country

All investment has its own risk !
So Kennas what is your point of view on ADI are they doing a Bear Sterns are they never going too produce have they got nothing at SugarKane ?
Look forward too your comments on this company.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm said:


> Lucky_Country
> 
> i think those on the sidelines would look at  the share again. its been an eternity for all the jvp partners, and conoco have gone ahead with a full scale 3d of the region to pinpoint their wells, so they are in no rush to put any wells into production, the years of experimentation at the kunde and baker wells, as well as the hook and bordovsky wells (and a few others)  has given them enough data to buy the expensive leases they have and  to now map the region.
> 
> our jvp has the concerns of the investors to deal with, most of them have only this play to get them anywhere, and the excessive time delays has taken its toll on their respective shareprices.
> 
> although kennas is very correct in saying what he is saying, i am none the less convinced the sp may be seeing more positive days than negative in the days to come, with the usual experctations driving up the sp prior to results coming out.. but AUT has made it clear the jvp is going ahead irrespective of what is to come from baker and kunde 3.




AgentM thats all Im saying speculation will drive the share price untill results are in.
If the results are positive then that should put a floor under the sp.
More wells more results higher shareprice.
Bad results equate too a sell off obviously but I feel confident on 2 years of delays that we have something worth waiting for.
Thats my opinion and Im entitled too have that and express it.


----------



## Sean K

Lucky_Country said:


> All investment has its own risk !
> So Kennas what is your point of view on ADI are they doing a Bear Sterns are they never going too produce have they got nothing at SugarKane ?
> Look forward too your comments on this company.



I've made a comment here and there, but more towards my role as a Moderator.

It troubles me both as an investor and as a moderator when a stock gets so much _positive_ airplay and _support_ when it is most obviously in a downtrend. 

I should also add that it is only holders and rampers who get upset with objective and reasonable questioning of a stock and it's value, at ANY TIME, even when it's going UP, let alone long term down.

A very clear indication of ramping, and/or unreasonable obsession and emotional attachment in a company, is when punters get offended with a 'negative' comment of a stock. It's at those times when investors should very, very seriously check themselves and question where they are placing their money, and encouraging others to do so.


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> I've made a comment here and there, but more towards my role as a Moderator.
> 
> It troubles me both as an investor and as a moderator when a stock gets so much _positive_ airplay and _support_ when it is most obviously in a downtrend.
> 
> I should also add that it is only holders and rampers who get upset with objective and reasonable questioning of a stock and it's value, at ANY TIME, even when it's going UP, let alone long term down.
> 
> A very clear indication of ramping, and/or unreasonable obsession and emotional attachment in a company, is when punters get offended with a 'negative' comment of a stock. It's at those times when investors should very, very seriously check themselves and question where they are placing their money, and encouraging others to do so.




kennas 

posting up that AUT announces kennedy is going to be fraced and that sugarloaf will become a horizontal is significant news to the shareholders, its news that all have been endlessly waiting for..

it is not a ramp to post that on asf.. i have an interest in the share, and as an investor i am sharing my research on this forum..

what your saying is nonsense.. your very condesending in your previous post to me, i ignored it..  i PMed you and told you i didnt like it, you didnt take the point but added insults instead!!


kennas, your hardly a moderator, your just insulting people and provocing any way you can.. please elaborate what part of my posts today were ramping..  and why did you not remove them?


----------



## Lucky_Country

kennas said:


> I've made a comment here and there, but more towards my role as a Moderator.
> 
> It troubles me both as an investor and as a moderator when a stock gets so much _positive_ airplay and _support_ when it is most obviously in a downtrend.
> 
> I should also add that it is only holders and rampers who get upset with objective and reasonable questioning of a stock and it's value, at ANY TIME, even when it's going UP, let alone long term down.
> 
> A very clear indication of ramping, and/or unreasonable obsession and emotional attachment in a company, is when punters get offended with a 'negative' comment of a stock. It's at those times when investors should very, very seriously check themselves and question where they are placing their money, and encouraging others to do so.




Just because a stock is in a downward trend doesnt means its doomed to failure.
The whole market is in a downward trend are they all doomed?
Please tell us what your point of view on this share faliure or success?


----------



## Sean K

LOL 

You are right, hardly a Moderator. 

Hardly anyone could reasonably question the performace of this stock over the past little while. 

Just gone down with the market of course. 

This is one of those companies that just needs a find to turn around I suppose, so good luck to long term holders and speculators.


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> LOL
> 
> You are right, hardly a Moderator.
> 
> Hardly anyone could reasonably question the performace of this stock over the past little while.
> 
> Just gone down with the market of course.
> 
> This is one of those companies that just needs a find to turn around I suppose, so good luck to long term holders and speculators.




every holder and the directors of all the jvp's are painfully aware of the sp trend since the decision to wait on the kunde 3 frac and baker frac was taken. i and many others have made calls to the directors, and we all know the story, its now evident the jvp has the confidence to frac the chalks.. so kennedy will now be fraced in the near term.

clearly the AUT presentation has not only a comprehensive amount of info on the formation and its envisaged potential

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2008/AUT20080317.pdf

but it signals the jvp is now going forward..

i agree kennas, good luck to all holders.. 



all imho and dyor..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Up 34% there goes that downward trend !
As AgentM has stated delays have hindered the shareprice along with a bear market.
AUT presentation was very positive and opens the news flow from the jvp.


----------



## HRL

I haven't been on this one for a while so was amazed to see you guys still banging on about ADI.  Have they produced anything yet or are they still close?  In all seriousness I have to agree with Kennas that the only way anyone would have made money on this lately is from shorting it.  Regarding the comment about speculation driving it back up you need to understand that the market sentiment has changed a lot since ADI hit $1 last year on the back of wild speculation.  Since the current bear market set in it has scared a lot of people away from little spec plays like ADI.  Even the smart money in big blue chips is being hammered so you've got to wonder how many people are game enough to throw money at stocks that were even risky in a bull run.  Honestly you're better off opening a CFD account so you can go short and run tight stop losses.  Getting onto my soapbox here but diversification and money management are key to longterm success.  Loading up on one stock and praying is not good practice.  If you give yourself plenty of options and handle your money well there's no reason why you can't make a boatload regardless of which way the market is going.  Bull & bear markets don't exist for the trader who can take long or short positions and trade on trends and momentum.  Just my 2c of course...


----------



## Lucky_Country

I think all depends on your investment strategy.
ADI too me are a stock I will stick with till we know what they have got in Texas good or bad as there are no certainties there but I personally am optomistic.
ADI yesterday went up 34% on AUTs presentation which too me proves people are in the sidelines waiting for an entry once fraccing has started I expect another jump until some kind of results come out.
It has been a long road for us longterm shareholders and a rollercoaster at that but as the old saying goes
"The more you want it the longer it takes"


----------



## HRL

Lucky_Country said:


> I think all depends on your investment strategy.
> ADI too me are a stock I will stick with till we know what they have got in Texas good or bad as there are no certainties there but I personally am optomistic.
> ADI yesterday went up 34% on AUTs presentation which too me proves people are in the sidelines waiting for an entry once fraccing has started I expect another jump until some kind of results come out.
> It has been a long road for us longterm shareholders and a rollercoaster at that but as the old saying goes
> "The more you want it the longer it takes"




Well you're right that everyones investment strategy is different, risk tolerance also, but the basis of every strategy should be to get the best possible return and preferably in a relatively short time if you want to enjoy it before old age sets in.

In general I trade only on established trends and momentum - once something starts to happen then get on and ride it out.  I don't understand the practice of getting in way too early on something that has a poor track record and may not return much anyway.  If you're waiting patiently in the wings for ages you could have already made a fortune elsewhere in the same time and then if your horse turns out to be lame then you've wasted a lot of time and loads of money so what's the point?  There are 1700 companies on the ASX and thousands more in exchanges around the world so why get hung up on one that isn't doing anything?  Just wait for something to happen then get on - it's not that hard.


----------



## nioka

HRL said:


> Well you're right that everyones investment strategy is different, risk tolerance also, but the basis of every strategy should be to get the best possible return and preferably in a relatively short time if you want to enjoy it before old age sets in.
> 
> In general I trade only on established trends and momentum - once something starts to happen then get on and ride it out.  I don't understand the practice of getting in way too early on something that has a poor track record and may not return much anyway.  If you're waiting patiently in the wings for ages you could have already made a fortune elsewhere in the same time and then if your horse turns out to be lame then you've wasted a lot of time and loads of money so what's the point?  There are 1700 companies on the ASX and thousands more in exchanges around the world so why get hung up on one that isn't doing anything?  Just wait for something to happen then get on - it's not that hard.



 Hindsight is a wonderful trait to have. I don't have it. Looking back I should have waited to get into ADI. Looking forward, one day at a time, it has been hard not to be in ADI and it still is that way. I did not anticipate the delays and I'm sure nobody else did either. My consolation is that I did trade a little along the way yet at the same time kept "in" at all times. I can not see into the future either so I guess I will just have to wait and have a little faith in agentm's research being at least half correct. I have interests in some of the other 1700 companies and some of them are a lot worse off today than ADI.
P.S. The gestation period for an elephant is a year.  Any resemblance?


----------



## HRL

nioka said:


> Hindsight is a wonderful trait to have. I don't have it. Looking back I should have waited to get into ADI. Looking forward, one day at a time, it has been hard not to be in ADI and it still is that way. I did not anticipate the delays and I'm sure nobody else did either. My consolation is that I did trade a little along the way yet at the same time kept "in" at all times. I can not see into the future either so I guess I will just have to wait and have a little faith in agentm's research being at least half correct. I have interests in some of the other 1700 companies and some of them are a lot worse off today than ADI.
> P.S. The gestation period for an elephant is a year.  Any resemblance?




And it only takes a few seconds and brief lack of attention to get hit by a bus and die.  

You can rely on luck and other peoples hopeful research if that's your plan but you could also get hold of some charting software and a stock scanning service and start setting up a few indicators.  That way you'll know which companies are starting to get some upward (or downward) pressure and when things are most likely to start happening.  Otherwise your fate is in someone elses hands and you might as well just go out and buy a lottery ticket.


----------



## prawn_86

Everyone has different style HRL.

That is why prices change so much in the market. Your style works for you, doesnt mean it would work for everyone.

ADI is still in a downtrend though imo


----------



## nioka

HRL said:


> And it only takes a few seconds and brief lack of attention to get hit by a bus and die.
> 
> You can rely on luck and other peoples hopeful research if that's your plan but you could also get hold of some charting software and a stock scanning service and start setting up a few indicators.  That way you'll know which companies are starting to get some upward (or downward) pressure and when things are most likely to start happening.  Otherwise your fate is in someone elses hands and you might as well just go out and buy a lottery ticket.



 I do rely on other peoples research and that is why I think ASF does such a good job. I think agentm's research has been well worth while reading. I make my own decisions and I follow up with my own research. Some of my most productive investments have come as a result of finding it first on ASF. AGM and AOE have been a couple of the best.
 ADI can be traded on the charts very easily by hindsight traders but there is not a chart that I can find that will predict drilling results and so I believe there is one way to hold ADI and that is as a believer. Unless one has insider knowledge it is hard to be in it unless you have faith in the research. The trading volume proves that. 10,000 only turnover today, hardly daytraders volume.
 I'd love to be able to buy a lottery ticket with the same odds.


----------



## Broadside

Well of course with hindsight HRL some of us wouldn't have held through thick and thin for 2 years, though you seem to assume it's the only stock we hold?  I am in it for the risk/reward, I am still awaiting testing and am prepared for the worst, of all the risks I saw with this stock and EKA, delays like this was the least of them, but has proved very very costly in a bear market.  Anyway, testing is on its way, bring it on, for better or worse.  Good results and it will run hard.  Bad results?  well to my mind, a lot of bad news is already assumed.

Glad to see agentm retains his faith and optimism (not blind faith, research backed faith) and I hope it's well rewarded, not just because I will participate in the riches, just because it would be great to see him vindicated, in spite of all the doubters over all this time.

All the best to holders and 20/20 hindsight posters can bugger off.


----------



## resourceboom

prawn_86 said:


> Everyone has different style HRL.
> 
> That is why prices change so much in the market. Your style works for you, doesnt mean it would work for everyone.
> 
> ADI is still in a downtrend though imo




Exactly prawny, everyone has their own own approach, HRL shouldn't try and force his style on others.


----------



## nioka

resourceboom said:


> Exactly prawny, everyone has their own own approach, HRL shouldn't try and force his style on others.



Don't be too critical on HRL. He has every right to bring another point of view to the thread and it does not hurt to have us look at the situation through other eyes from time to time. Nobody is forcing anyone to accept anyone elses view. His post caused me to rethink and I responded according to my conclusions.


----------



## resourceboom

ok. I am perfectly fine with an opposing view, but thought he was being a bit forceful in his views, and not everyone is a trader.

It is frustrating when you believe that a company has potential for a strong future, and you get people who make posts that feel to me at least very condescending....

anyway said my piece...


----------



## HRL

Broadside said:


> All the best to holders and 20/20 hindsight posters can bugger off.




Interesting.  So past performance, or hindsight as you call it, plays no part in your investment strategy?  Therefore a company that hasn't done anything of real worth for two years is just as good a bet as one with stellar results for the same period?  Write it off as smartarsed hindsight from a non-believer but past performance is a key indicator for anyone holding for anything from 1hr to 5yrs.

As for forcing my style on other people that wasn't my intention.  I've held my share of underperforming companies and am always interested to know why other people hold.  If it's a little bottom drawer spec that you're happy to hold indefinitely then that's fine.  Overall I was/still am keen to know why this is such a hyped thread.  Save the emotion if you're going to reply and just tell us all why you got in orginally, what it's done for you so far and why you're holding.  Some facts would be nice.


----------



## nioka

HRL said:


> Overall I was/still am keen to know why this is such a hyped thread.  Save the emotion if you're going to reply and just tell us all why you got in orginally, what it's done for you so far and why you're holding.  Some facts would be nice.



That is a very easy question to answer. There is no other thread that has a researcher prepared to spend the time to fully research the facts and be prepared to share them with others. ADI has Agentm. His research can be checked for it's authenticity by anyone who wants to follow up with their own. The facts he has published seem to stand testing. No one has proved otherwise. There possibly are elephants in the vacinity and I hold as a believer in them. If I'm on a hunting expedition that fails to bag an elephant then so be it, but I'll stay for a few more days hunting yet.


----------



## Agentm

back to the topic of the AUT presentation.. i would like to discuss adi and the operations of adi and the AUT presentation relating to the sugarkane and kennedy well.. 

imho the graphs put up on the Kennedy well being only 4 times the usual vertical, can throw a good slant on the prospectivity of the suagrkane.. horizontals can give way more than 4 times the vertical wells in deliver imho..


----------



## Broadside

HRL said:


> Interesting.  So past performance, or hindsight as you call it, plays no part in your investment strategy?  Therefore a company that hasn't done anything of real worth for two years is just as good a bet as one with stellar results for the same period?  Write it off as smartarsed hindsight from a non-believer but past performance is a key indicator for anyone holding for anything from 1hr to 5yrs.
> 
> As for forcing my style on other people that wasn't my intention.  I've held my share of underperforming companies and am always interested to know why other people hold.  If it's a little bottom drawer spec that you're happy to hold indefinitely then that's fine.  Overall I was/still am keen to know why this is such a hyped thread.  Save the emotion if you're going to reply and just tell us all why you got in orginally, what it's done for you so far and why you're holding.  Some facts would be nice.




Not emotional, I apologise if it seemed I was full of the angry pills but anyone can criticise decisions with hindsight, I don't regret the decision to buy nor the decision to hold since I acted on the best information I had at the time, and my own judgement.  Read the thread from 2 years ago if you want my reasons, the jist of it is, I think the risk/reward is very favourable and the outcome remains to be seen, I've waited this long but won't exit because I am impatient.  It's a tough market and has gone very risk averse, which is bad news when a stock has no news and is high risk.  But the potential outcomes remain the same.


----------



## Agentm

last week Beirne Trading Pty Ltd put in for 1.398 mill shares... in one day becoming the 6th largest holder in ADI. i note there is not one post criticising him, none warning him of impending doom.. and no one concerned enough about such a massive investment into the share and feeling obliged to offer invaluable hindsight to them. no bombardment of ta graphs sent to them.. what bliss, IMHO your sometimes better off not discussing the share than try to communicate with fellow shareholders on a forum under a constant attack from the usual suspects asking politely why you invested then broadsiding you. sorry broady, but its the right term to use...  

Now we know the majority of the largest holders have stayed. right throughout. I believe the holders in the top 20 would not done so too unwisely, i think they have researched and held.. 2 years or more in some cases, no issues and no problems at all..


----------



## Adam A

With all due respect agentm, if a major holder wanted to get out he/she might have great dificulty in doing so. The buy side has been weak for a while now Only 457,261 want in down to 0.19c                                                                                                        However the sell side is low too,positive news could very well see it run imho what to do?


----------



## Agentm

Adam A said:


> With all due respect agentm, if a major holder wanted to get out he/she might have great dificulty in doing so. The buy side has been weak for a while now Only 457,261 want in down to 0.19c However the sell side is low too,positive news could very well see it run imho what to do?




thats your opinion adam,, but with due respect, if a major holder wants to get out they have had no problem doing so.. 5 mill @ .53 and 2.5mill @ .225..    

adam if you expect positive news then  it may run,  imho the groundhog days are here for a while longer, no announcements followed the AUT presentation.. which was very informative, but imho out off time with reality..  bottom draw for a while longer..


----------



## gdaf

"High Profile Dusters" - Interestingly, they fail to mention that Zone 1 anywhere in any of our plays haven't been tested yet... shows the mentality of the sellers, and the general feeling of ADI to some in the investment community.
---------------------------------------------
Slump offers bargains for investors
24/03/08 11:12 	


Some unloved stocks are now a third of the price that they deserve to be and the share market rout presents bargains for retail investors and corporate predators, analysts say.

Cheap share market valuations have led to strong merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, particularly in the resources sector. The the most recent example is the Lihir Gold/Equigold NL combination announced on Friday, and a takeover bid by Indophil Resources NL for Lion Selection Ltd announced on Thursday.

"And we're going to be more of this, there is no doubt," said independent analyst Peter Strachan.

CopperCo Ltd, which is merging with Mineral Securities Ltd, was a prime example of a company now priced at a third of its value, he said.

Mr Strachan said many companies were trading at bargain basement, bottom-of-the-cycle levels.

"They're probably three to five per cent from the bottom in any continued downward movement, which I think we're going to get," Mr Strachan said.

"The stocks that stick out are property developers and property trusts, and also financials: the main banks, Suncorp-Metway and ANZ particularly.

"Those stocks have fallen 50 per cent.

"I know there will be profit downgrades from the banks ... but I still think, if you take a two or three year views, those stocks are looking particularly cheap."

Mr Strachan said oil and gas producers such as Petsec Energy Ltd, Arc Energy Ltd, AWE Ltd and Roc Oil Company Ltd represented extraordinary value.

"Petsec ... would spit out the same amount of cash as you would pay to buy the company in about 14 months."

While not yet producers, oil and gas explorers Otto Energy Ltd and Nexus Energy Ltd were also good value, he said.

"Any company that's got oil and gas assets, as opposed to undertaking pure exploration, looks cheap."

Mr Strachan said the energy sector had lost favour with investors due to a lack of recent exploration success and operational woes at projects including AED's Puffin field and the Anzon Australia Ltd-operated Basker Manta Gummy joint venture.

Mr Strachan said a string of high profile dusters - dry wells - included Adelphi Energy Ltd's Sugarloaf project in the United States and others in Mauritania and China's Beibu Gulf.

He said some companies servicing the resource sector offered better value than others, with GRD Ltd, RCR Tomlinson Ltd and Monadelphous Group Ltd being the top picks.

Among this sector, the most expensive stocks included United Group Ltd, Leighton Holdings Ltd and WorleyParsons Ltd, he added.

He said BHP Billiton Ltd and Rio Tinto Ltd, which comprise 20 per cent of the S&P/ASX 200, were highly priced.

"If Rio goes back to $80 and BHP goes back to $28 to $29, we'll see this market back at 4,800 points, and that's when I'd be looking to pick up some stock."

In a research note on Sunday, brokerage DJ Carmichael said the companies that were merging were acquiring targets with large sums of cash.

"This makes sense in these difficult times of raising debt to build large projects," the brokerage said.

As for future M&A targets, DJ Carmichael singled out Murchison Metals Ltd and Mount Gibson Iron Ore Ltd, as potential targets.

Murchison has cash and liquid investments of about $190 million and Mount Gibson, $120 million.

DJ Carmichael also pointed to Troy Resources NL, a 60,000 ounce-a-year gold producer with $80 million in cash and an enterprise value of about $100 million.

Not only are companies including Moly Mines Ltd facing deferred project development as financing arrangements become increasingly hard to complete, new floats were drying up, DJ Carmichael resources analyst James Wilson said.

While retail investors should be making the most of the current fire sale, they remained averse to risk, Mr Wilson said.

There were "bargains galore" to be had, he said.


----------



## Joe Blow

Can I just remind everyone that if you are quoting another source you must do two things.

1. Not quote the entire article as this infringes copyright. Please only quote a portion of it (say 20%) as this constitues fair use.

2. Always include a link to the original article. If the article is not on the internet you must refer to the publication (title and issue/date) from which it came.

Thank you for your co-operation.


----------



## gdaf

sure - will do in the future. I might add though, that any attempt to police copyright law on a public forum does seem completely futile given the sheer amount, frequency and nature of the medium. I imagine this is something that you 'have to say', however, I really doubt that this breach of copyright could be in any way shape or form tested in a court of law with a successful outcome by the litigating party. Quite simply, even with an IP address being logged, my excuse to the judge in all its rudimentary basic form could be "It wasn't me, I must have left my computer on". Of course, that is provided that the IP was in fact logged to be an IP of my own, and not that of a new user at an internet cafe, university etc etc, the list goes on. 

The anonymity of the internet has long been, and will continue to be the thorn in the side of all that stands to be breached in our existing antiquated copyright laws.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well thanks for the post anyway gdaf read it myself a day or 2 ago and thought another classic case of read between the lines !
Peter Strachan is a big supporter of ARQ and would be well up on the ADI story as well.


----------



## Agentm

hey gdaf, interesting read on the report.. i agree with Lucky_Country, if you read between the lines its fairly obvious the article can be easily misread..

i read it as hosston sands as the duster... and if he had of been a little kinder in elaborating he could have mentioned the potential upside of the secondary which could be equal to if not bigger than the primary  ever was capable of.. and a mention of the the significant amount of work conocophillips/TCEI were doing in the region on the austin chalks would have been nice, but the report was just generalizing and not dealing in specifics..

i think at the AGM he was a very vocal, i thought he was slightly aggressive in his questioning, and he showed no respect to the answers given by chris as a geologist to his questions on open hole vs cased and fraced completions.. but he is very up to speed on all things with ADI and ARQ thats for sure..  but with respect to the primary target at sugarloaf, it indeed was a discovery, but the gas was not at commercial quantities, and eme are not convinced the hosston sands are a duster, but i believe for the time being they are looking at the chalks..


----------



## Sean K

Lucky_Country said:


> Up 34% there goes that downward trend !



Obviously one positive day does not break a downtrend. I always embarass myself when calling technical changes to a company's price action on intra or one day anomalies.


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> Obviously one positive day does not break a downtrend. I always embarass myself when calling technical changes to a company's price action on intra or one day anomalies.




oouch,, pretty cutting ther kennas!

the only partner in the jvp that got any upside to the AUT presentation was adi, and then it trended down as the news of further wells and a frac on kennedy became more just a case of hot air by AUT and no announcements followed.  we are no clearer on timings now than before.. imho the interest in this share will only commence once the announcements are made of timing, and of course, if the frac of kennedy  delivers commercial flow.. until then the investors have to endure groundhog days, and the jvp 's will see the market do its thing on them..


----------



## TheIceMan

Just to top things off, a new 12 month low hit today. And our 200K unit buyer at 0.20c has disappeared. Not much interest at all in this ATM. Buy side is about as thin as you can get, i.e 5 buyers for 63,565 units (well, I suppose it could get thinner).


----------



## Agentm

the delays are frustrating, the AUT presentation is a strong indication of how the prospect is viewed none the less. the planning is for more wells and for kennedy to be fraced. all we need to see is the commencement of proceedings.

my view on baker is there is concern there, not so much on the formation producing, but the more the length of time is being taken thus far on dealing with the packer on baker is indicative of further mechanical problems being experienced, and EME have remarked on there being mechanical issues there, and remarked the well was trying to flow whilst drilling and the only solution then was for the drilling to cease and for conoco to flow open hole. it looks like the operation has not gone to plan and thus far no results are known, and we must assume that as long as they are working on the well the plan is still to flow it. the alternative is obviously to redrill.

The half yearly reports all indicated kennedy was next to be tested, and frac designs are on the go currently. those designs must be close to completion right now.. I expect the next news release to be in the vain of frac dates and i can easily see many other things also coming into play.. my own view right now is that there are less and less ground hog days left for ADI to experience.. adi has many projects on the go to also consider. and the AGM last year they did announce they were not looking at one project alone in the coming year, but quite a few..


----------



## fflintoff

BROOKELAND (AUSTIN CHALK, 8800) Oil or Gas Well 
15500ft Horizontal
BLACK STONE TAYLOR A-33 UNIT

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/400000-499999//PR0000442417_0001.pdf

Another Blackstone RRC permit has gone in from Anadarko in Tyler County which is in the analogous field referred to by AUT in their technical update dated 17 Mar.. Horizontal well Completion depth 15500ft.


----------



## banska bystrica

Below 20c looks a formality. Sick as a dog with a flea infestation. Where is this going? Yemen would be worth 10c but does anyone see the need for a capital raising at distressed prices?


----------



## Agentm

fflintoff said:


> BROOKELAND (AUSTIN CHALK, 8800) Oil or Gas Well
> 15500ft Horizontal
> BLACK STONE TAYLOR A-33 UNIT
> 
> http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/dpimages/img/400000-499999//PR0000442417_0001.pdf
> 
> Another Blackstone RRC permit has gone in from Anadarko in Tyler County which is in the analogous field referred to by AUT in their technical update dated 17 Mar.. Horizontal well Completion depth 15500ft.




i know anadarko is well represented on the board with mr fluor from TCEI and the chairman james hackett sits on the board of Fluor corp.. Anadarko is no small fish.. they have done a lot of work in the west texas austin chalks like Geosouthern and meridian have.

Dewitt county has wells worthe following

Goesouthern whom are austin chalk specialists, Buchhorn, a massive dual lateral, which should be close to ready, and the migura permit just went in. 

Conoco have Hooks in dewitt county..

In our county, a little closer in we see Conocophillips again drilling for the sugarkane with Bordovsky and Meridian, whom are also specialists in the identical west texas austin chalks, coming in on the sugarkane with their well Drees.   

I dont think the credibilty of the chalks play is being harmed with meridian and geosouthern in the area, i think thye are both austin chalk specialists worth keeping an eye on,  and conoco certainly are not slowing down with the 2 new wells they are drilling, and the 3d seismics that they are doing throughout..

In the immediate north there is the hawthorn leases , immediately next to ours imho.  and their well, the Beynon well, is also worth keeping a close watch on..

who will have the first horizontal on production??  do we have to rely on the  two conocophillips horizontals in live oak? baker and kunde 3?

will kennedy be the one?


----------



## barney

Curious to see AUT getting some more buying interest this morning ... over 3 million shares traded ..........  while ADI continues to sit idle. Buyers seem happy to pay a higher premium for AUT, so they must perceive the extra land that AUT has as holding more value. Either that, or there is simply not enough volume on the sell side of ADI to accumulate what they want  ........ 

The company could do well to improve their PR skills imo ............. Its a case of no news is not good news ......... A little positivety would go a long way  ....  Very frustrating............ Then again maybe they want the SP in the low teens so they can pick up the last of the annoyed sellers shares ..... not getting mine just yet.


----------



## sam76

barney said:


> Curious to see AUT getting some more buying interest this morning ... over 3 million shares traded ..........  while ADI continues to sit idle. Buyers seem happy to pay a higher premium for AUT, so they must perceive the extra land that AUT has as holding more value. Either that, or there is simply not enough volume on the sell side of ADI to accumulate what they want  ........
> 
> The company could do well to improve their PR skills imo ............. Its a case of no news is not good news ......... A little positivety would go a long way  ....  Very frustrating............ Then again maybe they want the SP in the low teens so they can pick up the last of the annoyed sellers shares ..... not getting mine just yet.




AUT has the support of a Victorian brokerage house, hence why it seems to always be propped up.  Without that support AUT would be at a very similar price to ADI.

There's also a 2,5000,000 @ 8  bid over at EKA as well


----------



## barney

sam76 said:


> AUT has the support of a Victorian brokerage house, hence why it seems to always be propped up.  Without that support AUT would be at a very similar price to ADI.
> 
> There's also a 2,5000,000 @ 8  bid over at EKA as well




Hi Sam, ........... Perhaps the management at ADI could be a bit more pro-active in pushing their own barrow as well if that is the case.

I've written to ADI again today voicing my dissapointment at their apparent lack of interest in keeping the market informed .............. Fair enough, we have delays in the project, but how much trouble is it to write a weekly/fortnightly update to keep the shareholders "interested" ............. Just because there is no new breaking news, doesn't alter the fact that shareholders like to be reminded that we potentially have a "new play in Texas" ................ Thats what they told us, right??

When they go to the shareholders and ask for more money to develop the play, they may well regret the fact that they didn't keep the market better informed ..... I know if I was running a Company, I would much rather be raising cash on any new issue of shares at the highest possible SP ............ Then again ........... in 6 months the current SP may hopefully be outdated   ........ I'll stop whinging now .... Almost beer o'clock   :bier:


----------



## Agentm

conocophillips bordovsky permit needed to be modified, and its now been approved once the resubmitted permit in the name of burlington resources was put in.  i gather they can drill away now as the rig is on site.

same ole groundhog days as usual, there are some big trades going through every now and then, perhaps opus prime minor holdings? 

looking forward to that "soon" event that AUT went on about what i thought was some time ago..


----------



## Agentm

just thinking back over these long groundhog days, and when we started there were a few wells in the chalks, if i remember correctly there was Kunde 1 and Kunde 2 which was shut in, and pioneer meeks, so three wells

Today i am seeing a different picture, and believ it or not, there is only one well on commercial production, kunde 1!!!!

So all these wells, and all these new operators, and when i look at leases i see distinct connections between a lot of these entities..

imho the last 6 months has seen an esculation of activity into the austin chalks by a lot of operators.. the original 3 is now becoming something else again imho, with conocophillips and a few austin chalk specialists suddenly getting very very active in the sugarkane..


----------



## blues

You would think there would have to be something there with all that activity in the vicinity. It is disappointing that AUT released that announcment on the 17/3 saying there would be activity soon and 3 weeks later nothing, no follow up announcement. It is beyond the point of frustration and I am becoming quite disillusioned with this process. I have been a long, loyal supporter but slowly coming to the conclusion that the Aussie jvps might be out of their depth. At least ADI has the Timor Sea in July and I hear the gazzeting of the Indonesia play in May to look forward too.

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

all those operators, geosouthern, conoco, meridian, hawthorn, they work off 3d's.. i dont think they are drilling and completing all those wells on a wild guess. the horizontals are very very expensive, and theres a lot of them, with a few being dual lateral horizontals also..

the decision to wait for kunde 3 was made by the jvp as a group on the advice of the operator. once the kunde 3 well had two mechanical failures, the last 3 or so months has brought a change of heart, and the jvp is confident they want to frac the kennedy well now without waiting. i am under the impression once the decision is made on the frac process, then the jvp can announce something more, the announcement to go ahead has already been made, its just the aut announcement was months ahead of the game plan imho..


----------



## Sean K

This is going to be the most fantastic turnaround story in the history of the multi universises!!!!!!!!!

Good luck ASF punters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## nioka

kennas said:


> This is going to be the most fantastic turnaround story in the history of the multi universises!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Good luck ASF punters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



 I like the way you say "going to be". No ifs ?. Anyone still holding certainly doesn't use stop loss as a tool and they certainly are the faithful. All the time there has been little selling, not enough volume to trade it most times. That must say something.


----------



## Sean K

nioka said:


> I like the way you say "going to be". No ifs ?. Anyone still holding certainly doesn't use stop loss as a tool and they certainly are the faithful. All the time there has been little selling, not enough volume to trade it most times. That must say something.



Noika, it will definately be the MOST analysed!!! ADI must be the most analysed company in the multimultiversies!!!!!!! 

AM has provided ASF followers with some of the most detailed analysis of any O&G play on the planet!!!


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> Noika, it will definately be the MOST analysed!!! ADI must be the most analysed company in the multimultiversies!!!!!!!
> 
> AM has provided ASF followers with some of the most detailed analysis of any O&G play on the planet!!!




hardly call it analysis.. i just was churning through the database this morning and mapped up the wells i have a close watch on,, and it struck me how many are currently being drilled.. 

wait a few weeks for the better quality information to come, once the formation is flowing the detail can come through, until then its really speculation..

good to see you support the holders still kennas, i am like you, i want everyone to make good gains on their investments.


edit.. i had broady's reply as a quote, and was about to post my comments kennas, but i noticed he was removed so i followed the protocol and didnt want to upset anyone, i hope your not too offended by me posting today on the adi forum, if you have a problem please pm exactly what i am allowed to post.. we all dont want you to remove this thread..


----------



## nioka

You can say that again and again. Thanks to agentm we have had enough information to understand the play and the risks. The company certainly hasn't been too forthcoming of late.


----------



## Agentm

RNS Number:2374S
Empyrean Energy PLC
14 April 2008



Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
----------------------------

* Empyrean confirms significant discovery at the Sugarloaf Project area.
* First well tested from five drilled to date (Sugarloaf Blocks A & B)
flows commercial quantities of gas and condensate on test.
* Four further wells which have all encountered hydrocarbon shows
whilst drilling are yet to be tested.

Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and
production assets in Germany and USA today announces the following
initial test results from its TCEI JV Block A-3 well on Block A at
the Sugarloaf Project in Texas:

Initial flow testing of the TCEI JV Block A-3 well has recorded flow
rates using 12/64" choke close to 1.9 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet
gas per day) with over 460 bcpd (barrels of condensate per day) and
75 bwpd (barrels of water per day - normal under these
circumstances) with a FTP (Flow Tubing Pressure) of almost 4000 psi.
On the present day prices for condensate and gas whilst converting
the condensate to a gas equivalent, the equivalent gas flow rate
exceeds (using a 10:1 conversion) 6.5 mmcfepd (million cubic feet
gas equivalent per day).

This open hole test has been conducted without stimulation and is
testing the vertical pay section in the upper part of the Cretaceous
Austin Chalk reported in our announcement of 15 November 2007 (peak
readings 350 units - 10 times background levels). The drilling of
this well ceased 2,700 feet short of the proposed length as
significant gas shows and flares whilst drilling were encountered
prompting the operator to prepare the well for an open hole flow
test, to see if the well would flow without stimulation, as reported
in our announcement of 11 January 2008.

Much work is now being conducted to correlate these early results
with that of a similar field in the region to help establish best
practice for completions moving forward on this substantial and
significant gas condensate discovery. The Brookeland Field in Tyler
County is one such field and early comparisons are very favorable. A
typical well drilled by one of the operators in the Brookeland Field
has an approximate equivalent rate of 1.4 mmcfepd per thousand feet
of horizontal (comparing favorably to Empyrean's TCEI JV Block A-3
well at approximately 2.4 mmcfepd per thousand feet of horizontal).
The typical well for one operator at the Brookeland Field has
approximately 12,000 feet of horizontal with average initial rates
of over 16 mmcfepd.

Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director Tom Kelly said "The
importance of this comparison is that Empyrean's TCEI JV Block A-3
well has approximately 2800 feet of horizontal and a much higher
equivalent production rate per thousand feet of horizontal well
indicating that at the Sugarloaf Project there is every chance that
better production rates may be able to be gained by increasing the
length of the horizontal portion of the wells."

After some 20 hours of flow testing the TCEI JV Block A-3 well has
been shut in to conduct pressure measurements and other reservoir
data measurements as part of the normal engineering procedures to
measure the parameters of this discovery. Further testing will be
required to confirm the extent of the reservoir and the field
deliverability. At this early stage there is no clear indication on
the time it will take to determine these important factors.

Empyrean has a 7.5 % working interest in the TCEI JV Block A-3 well
and further announcements will follow as significant developments
come to hand.

Tom Kelly added "This is terrific news for Empyrean and our
shareholders. The initial recorded flow rates are excellent using a
choke that was not fully opened and the pressure is high. Much is
being learnt from this well and the comparison with Brookeland that
should see many of our future wells flowing even better than this
one. After a very patient wait Empyrean's shareholders are being
rewarded with being part of a major discovery. This is the first
flow test from 5 drilled wells that have all encountered hydrocarbon
shows whilst drilling on this project's extended area. We still have
4 already drilled wells to test which is very exciting. More
importantly, this first well tested has confirmed a significant gas/
condensate discovery, and with oil fetching over US$100 a barrel the
economics are even more attractive."

The information contained in this announcement was completed and
reviewed by the Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum
geologist.


----------



## maverick11

ohhhh, i'm getting excited.  Nearly 2 years and finally things are starting to come together.  This should hopefully see the SP start to go back up with Baker flowing with no frac and proving commercial flow


----------



## sam76

Indeed this is good news and helps vindicate Agent M's research on the area.

Although not directly related, hopefully this will put a floor under the share price of the Aussie jvp's.


----------



## barney

Thanks for the update Agent.  Certainly very upbeat from EME ......Quote  "major discovery"    ............

A brief follow up on my email to ADI ............... A positive response ........... A little frustration over the delays, but looking forward to a plan on Kennedy soon ............. no hint of dissappointment in the project at all at this stage .....  

Also like the statements from AUT with reference to the recent appointment of Ian Lusted to their board who will be invaluable as they develop their ..... Quote ...... "significant acreage position in the Texas based Austin Chaulk formation"  ........

We "punters" as Kennas refers to us, will hopefully be rewarded for our loyalty rather than our gambling ...........


----------



## Agentm

we now see two types of wells in the chalks, each are commercial. 

the kunde 1 well was a vertical, straight in and did not intersect any natural fractures, they got good flow off the frac they did, and if you read the last AUT presentation, they see up to 15 years of longevity there, which is unique for a chalks well really.

the Baker well is a 2500 odd foot horizontal, they couldnt get the full 5000 feet done, because of the massive pressure and blowouts after hitting a natural fracture.. it is a  horizontal, open hole and unfraced, they have a very handy well there. Conocophillips have done a lot to get it fixed, and now they are rewarded.

EME is talking significant discovery.. and "major" i hear

there are 3 zones in the chalks, all the wells are in the upper zone, and they are talking 3tcf and 500mmbls in that region alone on the smaller field size of 200,000 acres, i know of 4 wells that are being drilled outside the 200,000 acres and 2 are conocophillips wells, they are apparently seeing a much larger play.

early days, but the significance of a second commecial well, and horizontal at that, cant be ignored..

good luck to all holders


----------



## nioka

EME sp up 70% according to the quotes I have seen just a few minutes ago. That should get the speculators interested in AUT and ADI tomorrow.


----------



## KillerWolf

First post here, i believe. just wanted to say here as well as ADVFN : many thanks to AgentM for sharing his reseach w/ us. it's much appreciated, and you should feel justifiably proud at having been vindicated after all the sht you've had to put up w/ from certain posters on the other board.

thanks again bud.


----------



## gdaf

So sugarloaf is flowing!! You beauty! Very nice result for EME and the operator. This makes fraccing our Kennedy well all the more important in the coming weeks/months. Let's hope for weeks. To get a commercial flow will see this share well back to record highs. I for one am going to stick this out to the end. If anything, this should provide ADI with some very important data for a forward drilling program in Texas, and put to bed any thoughts of abandoning the area. Good luck to all holders.


----------



## nioka

The EME share price has now shown a 100% increase for the day on the LSE. They only hold a small interest in the well tested. Looks like those ADI holders who have recently sold out should be very disappointed in the not too distant future. The results for EME must encourage the joint venture of  ADI and it's partners to speed up the move towards development of their areas.


----------



## jackohelp

Well said Killerwolf... Good call Agentm. TImings been a bit out for 9 months but you got this one bang on.  Can you clarify something for me over on advfn bb about the use of the word vertical in TK's rns. See my posts from arounds
 16.45 uk time.


----------



## tarzanhey

Just like to wish all you ADI holders GOOD LUCK for the coming day.

I hope the EME RNS will stop some of the doubting thomas's Kennas and prawn, sushi, melua etc etc etc.

Hope I dont get banned for mentioning the moderators - no offence guys! 


Many thanks to AgentM - fantastic work and research over the last year and a half. _ I never doubted you mate.


This is just the beginning - we still have a long way to go.



hmm

Commercial - Major find - I like the sound of that.

Cheers all


Tarzan


----------



## rub92me

Pre-open market depth doesn't indicate a massive rise for ADI at this stage. It could take a good while for confidence to return for this.


----------



## Sean K

tarzanhey said:


> I hope the EME RNS will stop some of the doubting thomas's Kennas and prawn, sushi, melua etc etc etc.
> 
> Hope I dont get banned for mentioning the moderators - no offence guys!
> 
> Tarzan



LOL Tarzan. I hope it opens well up, and follows through. Just a note though, EME is not ADI. Obviously searching in the same ballpark, but, doesn't mean it's a slam dunk! Pretty damn positive though. All the best, kennas


----------



## Agentm

hey tarz..

great to see eme get a good day for once, and what tom kelly is saying about the chalks, and the wells to come being far better producers..  not that the expected fantastic flow rates at baker are in any way less than spectacular given the circumstances of the well..

_Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director Tom Kelly said "The
importance of this comparison is that Empyrean's TCEI JV Block A-3
well has approximately 2800 feet of horizontal and a much higher
equivalent production rate per thousand feet of horizontal well
*indicating that at the Sugarloaf Project there is every chance that
better production rates may be able to be gained by increasing the
length of the horizontal portion of the wells*."
_

the meridian resource company (TMR on the NYSE)  has 20,000 acres in a 50% partnership with "another major operator"  and they say they will do dual lateral horizontals, 6000 feet each.. and 100 wells.. they expect 7 - 15 years on the wells.. all similar talk to the AUT announcement last week..

our jvp will fire up and start announcing dates for kennedy very soon, and i feel a forward well program also.. there is no way they will hang back any more, as the Baker 2800 foot horizontal that is nearly half the size of the Kennedy well,  it is looking great for the longer wells that may have the ability to connect to 3 or so natural fractures..  and dont forget the natural high porosity of these wells allows them to be productive on the high matrix porosity factor alone without fractures as kunde 1 has shown..
so unlike gidding or pearsall wells, it may be that the sugarkane wells will be producing for a long time on the high matrix porosity that all the wells have reported...

very positive indeed, look forward to the news as it gets released


----------



## mfunksta

Just like to thank Agentm also.  You kept me believing, mate.  Glad I didn't sell out yesterday...  ADI up almost 39% in an hour!!!


----------



## Agentm

thanks for the kind words,

i am in the sugarkane for an outcome, and if i can use the words of the MD of Meridian and state what he says about the region, its very similar to Tom Kelly imho..  he expects better wells than baker, and his belief is that the Meridian Wells with dual laterals to produce 7 - 35 mmcfgpd and 1000 - 4000 Bopd  and is talking 100 wells that they expect 7 - 15 years of production from if i hear him right..

as always,, all imho and dyor.. 

just a quick note,,  oilsearch announced a sale to KSC  Kuwait Energy Company thir interests in block 74!!  so a new operator there for ADI..

very importantly the block 7 lease that sits a few miles off that massive oil discovery was not sold, and oilsearch remains operator there..

"The most noteworthy discovery from Adelphi's point of view is that OMV has commenced the development of its Al Nilam and Habban discoveries. This oilfield – believed to be a single large structure, is located just a few kilometres from Block 7. First oil production from the Al Nilam field commenced in late 2006 at a rate of 1,000 bopd through temporary production facilities. The field is expected to be developed in a staged process, with production rates to reach 32,000 bopd by 2009/10 while proven field reserves are 50 mmbbls and the field's production life will be about 20 years."


so oilsearch likes block 7 very very much, and hangs onto it..... i cant wait for that one to start myself..


----------



## gdaf

IMO the immediate test for ADI shares will be the K1H frac. Think about it this way - if last year, it hit natural fractures as reported a small distance away, we'd be into the 100c region, and have never looked back. The frac will take the shackles off ADI if they can hit something. Then as mentioned, it'll all be about the forward drilling program. To really get the interest in this up, we need a timely announcement from ADI that they've have locked in a crew and equipment, and more importantly a date. Realistically, we're no further out of the dark that we have been, just that we have a nice report from EME to get our hopes up. The play is 'in play' so to speak.


----------



## Agentm

totally agree..

i think the difference between our well using oil based mud and drilling overbalanced and Conoco drilling water based mud and drilling underbalanced and getting all sorts of strife when they hit a fracture, and ended the drill, as with baker, and it is a dissappointment not to see that well completed to 5000 feet, but the baker well has demonstrated some great numbers just on the open hole test on the 2800 feet they did drill..

kunde 3 will show what a 5000 foot horizontal does with multiple fractuires in the drill..

i am expecting a good result, and i look forwared to the days ahead as the jvp announce the frac of kennedy and get it done..

early days and very very promising.. and agreed, this major discovery is "in play"


----------



## Agentm

very informative report from UK bb,,

15.04.2008
Sugarloaf Starts To Look Very Sweet For Empyrean Energy And Its Shareholders As Shares Surge on Back Of Successful Well Test
Shares in AIM-quoted Empyrean Energy surged almost 90 per cent yesterday on news that a well on its Sugarloaf project in Texas has tested commercial quantities of gas and condensate. This was the first of five wells to test in the project area, with the TCEI JV Block A-3 well flowing 1.9 million cubic feet of gas per day and over 460 barrels of condensate per day, equivalent to a total gas flow rate of 6.5 million cfe/d. The AIM company described the find as “substantial and significant” in an announcement that triggered the shares to gain 16.5 pence by afternoon trading to stand at 35 pence.

The well, which was open hole tested in the upper part of the Cretaceous Austin Chalk formation, stopped drilling 2,700 feet short of the proposed depth because of the significant gas shows and flares encountered while drilling. This encouraged the operator to see if the well would flow without costly stimulation, which it has now successfully done. The well has been shut-in to conduct pressure and other reservoir data measurements. Investors, who have waited patiently for some good news from this multi-well programme which saw the first wells spud last Spring, will be keen for further updates to learn more about the potential of this find and what happens next to realize that potential.

The Sugarloaf partners are already comparing these early test results with similar fields in the area to work out the best completion techniques for production. Typical wells on the Brookeland field, for example, have horizontal sections of around 12,000 feet and flow 1.4 million cfe/d per thousand feet of horizontal section, which compares favorably to Empyrean’s well which has flowed 2.4 million cfe/d per thousand feet of horizontal section. Average initial flow rates at Brookeland exceed 16 million cfe/d.

“The importance of this comparison is that Empyrean’s TCEI JV Block A-3 well has approximately 2800 feet of horizontal and a much higher equivalent production rate per thousand feet of horizontal well indicating that at the Sugarloaf Project there is every chance that better production rates may be able to be gained by increasing the length of the horizontal portion of the wells,” said Empyrean executive director Tom Kelly. He pointed out that the choke was not fully opened and the well pressures were high.

Empyrean has just a 7.5 per cent working interest in the well but this could still prove material for the oil junior. After all, this is onshore gas in the Lower 48 close to existing infrastructure and with the added bonus of a high condensate stream, which will see the company cash in on US$100-plus oil prices.

What’s more, there are four more wells to test in the Sugarloaf project area, all of which encountered hydrocarbon shows. Attempts to fracture stimulate the TCEI JV Block A-1 well, which spudded last May, have proved problematic, with initial analysis suggesting poor contact between the casing holes and the reservoir: a higher calibre perforating gun may be brought in to gain better contact with the reservoir. The TCEI JV Block A-2 well will be tested using knowledge gained from the testing of the A-1 and A-3 wells.

The reason for taking a cautious approach to completing and testing the wells is that this is an Austin Chalk reservoir, which requires careful handling to get commercial flow rates from the fractured, brittle chalk. Horizontal wells are far better at delivering commercial flow rates from these reservoirs, which are often seen as providing a long term return on investment rather than quick bang for buck. Even so, these chalk reservoirs can be prolific: in the Austin Chalk, some 5tcf of gas and 600 million barrels of oil have been produced from the Giddings and Pearsall fields alone. Given the encouraging open hole results from TCEI JV Block A-3 well, it would seem Sugarloaf is not a typical Austin Chalk field and that could make this discovery even sweeter for Empyrean and its patient shareholders.


----------



## banska bystrica

KillerWolf said:


> First post here, i believe. just wanted to say here as well as ADVFN : many thanks to AgentM for sharing his reseach w/ us. it's much appreciated, and you should feel justifiably proud at having been vindicated after all the sht you've had to put up w/ from certain posters on the other board.
> 
> thanks again bud.




agentm been vindicated? You guys must also believe in the tooth fairy. If Kennedy flows commercially and the share price is $1+, then you can be justified in saying agentm has been vindicated.


----------



## nioka

banska bystrica said:


> agentm been vindicated? You guys must also believe in the tooth fairy. If Kennedy flows commercially and the share price is $1+, then you can be justified in saying agentm has been vindicated.



 Allways the critic. ( unless it is something good to say about ZFX). Do you have the credentials to have a comment on ADI or agentm?...


----------



## Lucky_Country

banska bystrica said:


> agentm been vindicated? You guys must also believe in the tooth fairy. If Kennedy flows commercially and the share price is $1+, then you can be justified in saying agentm has been vindicated.




Well he aint been wrong yet his timing may have been a bit out but we will all see his research proven soon.


----------



## Agentm

hey nioka,

was thinking about you these last days, wondering if you are weaving your way between the AUT - ADI stock.. not asking if your still doing it, but i have admired the way you have added value as the two have fallen away during this long phase of delay...

I am monitoring all the chalks wells closely myself, hooks, buchhorn, baker, bordovsky, drees, benyon. These are wells that are adjacent to our acreages and also the extended acreages of AUT... If i am seeing sugarkane type results in those wells i will pm you and let you know..

2 things i am aware of, after examining the well logs on some of the 11 vertical wells anounced as having intersected the chalks, its clearly obvious that the high matrix porosity and overpressurised chalks in our region (identical to east texas chalks with exception of the chalks there having lower condensate), or the "sugarkane" as its been called by conocophillips, has to be explored by the jvp. it would be irresponsible not to explore the region, and its impossible for them to be anything but as excited as Tom kelly was the other day, and to go forward and explore and appraise the "major discovery" in the austin chalks.

exploration wells will have to be drilled, and the exploration apprasal phase will continue. I have no doubt in my mind that kunde 3 will be an extremely impressive well, just as baker is. they reported that kunde 3 was like baker, trying to flow back whilst drilling.. and kunde 3 is 5000 feet not 2800 feet..

we will have a few days more of ground hog days until the kennedy frac is announced, imho the conocophillips plan will be to frac kunde 3 next. i am of the opinion that a slight delay for that result would be of considerable benifit to the frac design at kennedy.. but we will see soon enough which well goes first.. but i am convinced that the kennedy frac and a forward well program is partially what we are about to hear about.. as AUT said "soon" .. as well as a lot of other projects which are also moving ahead..


----------



## banska bystrica

nioka said:


> Allways the critic. ( unless it is something good to say about ZFX). Do you have the credentials to have a comment on ADI or agentm?...




For all the great spruiking of ADI, the share price is 27c. It was also good buying at 60c, 50c, 40c, even 35c if I recall. This stock is a dog with fleas. There is no denying that. Just look at the graph. A ski slope downwards of Whistler type proportions.


----------



## Agentm

from the ARQ website

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys%207%20April%202008.pdf

just some interesting opinions from hartleys, they reviewed ARQ and gave their opinions on the ADI aspect of ARQ, whom are the major shareholder and holds 32% of the ADI shares..


----------



## Lucky_Country

2008 the year of ADI ?
Very busy year for ADI and with Kennedy 1, Wisteria, and the long forgotten New Taiton news flows could come thick and fast.
New Taiton is the real interesting one as news was positive and has long been forgotten.
AgentM has kept us all up too date on Kennedy and we may be nearing some results in the near term.


----------



## nioka

banska bystrica said:


> For all the great spruiking of ADI, the share price is 27c. It was also good buying at 60c, 50c, 40c, even 35c if I recall. This stock is a dog with fleas. There is no denying that. Just look at the graph. A ski slope downwards of Whistler type proportions.



 Well it did give you a chance to get in on a winner cheaply. I have traded my way with them and those I hold are "free carry" and I still have some change to get a few more. Are you a holder or just a cynic?


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> hey nioka,
> 
> was thinking about you these last days, wondering if you are weaving your way between the AUT - ADI stock.. not asking if your still doing it, but i have admired the way you have added value as the two have fallen away during this long phase of delay...
> .




 The relative prices of ADI, AUT and EKA have been constant for a while now and the opportunity for any benefit has not been there as it has been in the past. I'm still looking for any opportunity.


----------



## doctorj

Has anyone considered the impact of AWE's play for ARQ on ADI? If I recall correctly, ARQ has about 32% of ADI.


----------



## Agentm

doctorj said:


> Has anyone considered the impact of AWE's play for ARQ on ADI? If I recall correctly, ARQ has about 32% of ADI.




i have been told the adi management have viewed the merger as "positive"  and they have no problem with it at all..


----------



## Agentm

i am not sure if anyone has been reading the hartley report..

i agree with the substance of what they say, but this part is very interesting to me.. it confirms the methods that meridian and geosouthern and conocophillips really abide by in their drilling programs, and i am very pleased that our jvp has aquired it for themselves..

_"However, 3D seismic has now been acquired so that subsequent wells will be drilled into the natural fractures which should result in increased flow rates."_

i know the use of 3ds has been instrumental in meridian getting exceptionally good wells in the east texas chalks.. and conoco are doing extensive 3d's before they drill away, and for our jvp to have been also doing one makes me sleep easier.. that is very positive news and one very important revelation in ensuring successes in the forward well program.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well the northern hemisphere winter is now over and we are inching closer to testing on K1. Timeframe for testing is what I would like to see the ADI management release rather than rely on an AUT presentation that they didnt seem too fully endorse.


----------



## Agentm

hartleys indicate ~6 weeks

if you consider that kunde 3 may be pretty soon, then the timing makes sense...  i think there are many projects on the verge of going somewhere, so plenty of news stops in the near term.. and i include NT like you do!


----------



## mjam

> *Lucky_Country *
> Re: ADI - Adelphi Energy
> 2008 the year of ADI ?
> Very busy year for ADI and with Kennedy 1, Wisteria, and the long forgotten New Taiton news flows could come thick and fast.
> New Taiton is the real interesting one as news was positive and has long been forgotten.




Work on New Taiton stopped in ~ March 2007, as a result of some technical issues and financial issues relating to the operator of the well. 

In the last ADI half year report it was highlighted that legal proceedings had commenced against the operator and a new operator was being sought.

You would expect some progress has been made on this front (positive or negative) and that an update on New Taiton will occur in 2008. 

Anyway been holding this stock for a while now, news in recent days has been good, albeit not directly about ADI wells but promising anyway.

Best of luck to all ADI holders. 

AgentM - your research and insights have been great and valued - thanks for sharing it on the forums.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well quite a few of us have been holding for years and it has been a rollercoaster ride up and down maybe we are back on an upward sprint especially if news flows.
You would think that they wont let this go on much longer and also want too get down to the buisness of producing and drilling additional wells and returning some kind of reward to the holders.


----------



## fflintoff

Improved flow 



Regulatory Announcement 

Go to market news section      

Company Empyrean Energy PLC   
TIDM EME 
Headline Sugarloaf Block A - Update 
Released    07:10 17-Apr-08 
Number 5292S 



 RNS Number:5292S
Empyrean Energy PLC
17 April 2008



                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
                        ------------------------------

- Flow testing of the TCEI JV Block A-3 well continues successfully.
- Flow rates have increased by approximately 20% since testing began
  to the most recent rate of 7.8 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day.

Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and production
assets in Germany and USA today announces the following initial test
results from its TCEI JV Block A-3 well on Block A at the Sugarloaf
Project in Texas:

Initial flow testing of the TCEI JV Block A-3 continues and since the
last report the operator has successfully collected pressure and other
data measurements from the well. The well was then opened back to flow
and the operator has increased the choke size incrementally to 14/64".
As of the latest report the well was flowing at approximately 2.2
mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas per day) with over 560 bcpd (barrels of
condensate per day) and nil bwpd (barrels of water per day) with a FTP
(Flow Tubing Pressure) of around 2500 psi (it is normal for FTP to drop
as the choke size increases).

On the present day prices for condensate and gas whilst converting the
condensate to a gas equivalent, the most recent recorded equivalent gas
flow rate exceeds (using a 10:1 conversion) 7.8 mmcfepd (million cubic
feet gas equivalent per day).

Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director Tom Kelly said "So far
this well is exceeding our expectations from an open hole test without
stimulation. Importantly the pressures are excellent for the rates of
flow recorded. Condensate is making up over 70% of the flow in terms of
value, and with the oil price reaching record highs this condensate to
gas ratio is healthy for the economics of the project."

The information contained in this announcement was completed and
reviewed by the Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum
geologist.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Roll on K1 testing  !
Great news anyone a non beliver now ?
I am really getting impatient now just badly want too test K1 and see the results get the well into production and watch the shareprice pay for my retirement !


----------



## tarzanhey

from Quattro 44 on advfn re new EME rns

This RNS is more significant than the first. They have now basicaly proved up a field and not just one well. Very fast pressure build up on shut-in; extra flow with larger choke; constant well head pressure; open hole; no stimulation; partly driled hole. This is a Jed Clampet moment and a company maker, but the real significance does not appear to have been realized yet.
q44


----------



## Agentm

good to see q44 comments,,

i noticed them too..

i think ed will appear again.. tarz, if you can, as i know the UK bb will go nuts again,, if ed posts some good engineering perspectives on this can you perhaps post them here..


----------



## Dukey

hey y'all !!

nice to see some good news for the sugarloaf stocks.... at last!!   believe it or not I still have a few ADI in my basket- though  I did sell most last year when I felt the delays might go on forever and figured I'd be better invested elsewhere for a while.

Must admit the groundhog day delays drove me nuts for a bit - so I went AWOL from the thread and focused on other stocks!!    
Without AgentM's bottomless enthusiasm - based on deep research - I probably would have sold the lot...  so thanks muchly for your hard work bloke, and likewise to all the other experienced and knowledgeable posters who have made this thread a great educational experience for the likes of me!! 

Looking now like it might be time for me to find some more cash to throw at ADI soon (was beginning to think I would never say that!).


I'm still expecting slow, steady progress from here though - as it seems all the junior partners are subject to the plans of CP who no doubt know how to wrap the leases and get the most out of the project.  ... they also aren't in any hurry what so ever - seeing POE seems unlikely to come down any time soon!!  


So as (secret?)AgentM has always said - it's a waiting game - but there is light now... getting brighter.. slowly!!!!!!!
- good luck all believers!!  (and re-believers!)

-Dukey

Quick thought on ARQ - the hartleys report values  ADI at 2c to ARQ !!!    so theres gotta be some upside there!!


----------



## barney

EME up another 20% on the further good news ........... Looking like a good well for them at this stage. 


Heres a link (hope it works) for anyone who likes to read a bit of technical stuff .. "Dynamics of Oil and Gas Accumulations"  ............ (P107 has a bit on Chaulks) 


http://books.google.com.au/books?id...g=qcyjjA-hzmxUVcDN9kI6TIDUVkc&hl=en#PPA107,M1


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> good to see q44 comments,,
> 
> i noticed them too..
> 
> i think ed will appear again.. tarz, if you can, as i know the UK bb will go nuts again,, if ed posts some good engineering perspectives on this can you perhaps post them here..




Many seem to have missed the signifigance of todays update.

When Ed posts next I will post it here.


Cheers.

Tarz


----------



## Lucky_Country

Seems like upward pressure definately building as news flows out.
Not sure why anyone would be selling now as we must now surely be close.
Im definately interested and excited by what they have got in Texas and the icing on the cake would be a positive result from NT.
Indonesia (if sucessfull), Timor Sea, Yemen and maybe Africa all exciting projects.


----------



## Lucky_Country

King Baz with a very good read found this on SS.
Just another thing for everyone to ponder on the fortunes of ADI and their Sugarloaf Project.


----------



## tck

I am new to the site but am a shareholder in AUT and wanted to hear anyone's views on why there is such a disparity on relative values on all the listed SL JVP's.

AUT has the most exposure to the Sugarloaf area more that 17,000 gross acres (ADI has approx 4,000 acres) and sufficient cash to fund the next 6/7 wells.

However ADI is capped at $30m net of cash and AUT is capped at $43m net of cash.

Interested in any comment.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Check out the ammount of shares on offer from each company and you will see ADI has a greater leverage with less risk attached.


----------



## tck

Thats my point.

AUT had twice the shares and 4 times the land hence the leverage to SL is substantially more even allowing for the issued capital of both companies.


----------



## Lucky_Country

4 times the funding and 4 times the risk.
ADI have a lot of other exciting projects and backing from ARQ.


----------



## Agentm

with aut you have all your eggs in one basket, they are "all in" so to speak on sugarkane..

ADI has other prospects all over the world adding value to it. such as

Timor sea wisteria.. which is about to spud.  free carry on that offshore well

Yemen.  two blocks with oil search (recently oilssearch sold all of its interest in most of its blocks which Macquarrie valued at $88 mill for over $200 mill but held onto the better blocks such as block 7 and maybe a few more?)   block 7 sits just a few kilometres from one of yemens largest recent discoveries,

_"The most noteworthy discovery from Adelphi's point of view is that OMV has commenced the development of its Al Nilam and Habban discoveries. This oilfield – believed to be a single large structure, is located just a few kilometres from Block 7. First oil production from the Al Nilam field commenced in late 2006 at a rate of 1,000 bopd through temporary production facilities. The field is expected to be developed in a staged process, with production rates to reach 32,000 bopd by 2009/10 while proven field reserves are 50 mmbbls and the field's production life will be about 20 years. _
_The pipeline and development infrastructure being put in place by OMV will improve the economics of any discovery made in Block 7.  "_

There is NT, which will also be completed once the litigation on the operator has been completed, could be any time i hear..

Indonesia.. a play which ADI has been working 3 years on..

 no doubt that sugarkane is very prospective, but if you get too greedy and take a massive slice of the area, you must also be able to fund the hundreds of wells and also be aware that the leases could easily run out unless you get cracking..  you would need a lot of rigs, alot of capital to get such a massive show that aut have on the road..

as an AUT investor tck, have you asked AUT why its not going ahead with any wells on any of its extended leases? they have a lot of acreages to put wells on and surely they must have to get started soon? they tout ipeama ond longhorn as being prospective acreages, which i totally understand, yet no wells have been discussed there?  maybe AUt will only have parity with some of its compatriots as long as it continues to only be exploring the sugarloaf ami 20,000 acreages? 


what are your thoughts?


----------



## tck

Or if you believe that the structure is geologically the same as the  EME discovery then 4 times the upside. 

I suppose my real point is that all of these companies are exploration plays and the majority of value in all of them is attributable to SL so if your an optimist on SL then AUT is the best leverage however ADI would have less downside if SL is not a positive outcome.


----------



## nioka

tck said:


> I am new to the site but am a shareholder in AUT and wanted to hear anyone's views on why there is such a disparity on relative values on all the listed SL JVP's.
> 
> AUT has the most exposure to the Sugarloaf area more that 17,000 gross acres (ADI has approx 4,000 acres) and sufficient cash to fund the next 6/7 wells.
> 
> However ADI is capped at $30m net of cash and AUT is capped at $43m net of cash.
> 
> Interested in any comment.




 I have always valued AUT and ADI as almost equal as fas as SP goes. Every time I have been able to sell one and buy 12% more of the other with the proceeds I have done so. I have been back and forth a few times. That should show that when I say they are about equal I must believe it. When Sugarloaf looked as though it would pay off early I did value ADI higher than AUT.
 I don't think you have the acreage correct.


----------



## sam76

I would have thought EKA was the best leverage (although riskier due to $$$ shortage)

12.5% of what AUT has for 13 cents (if you can get them)

considering AUT are 30+ cents atm this would be a better bet for leverage if you are risk adverse


----------



## tck

nioka said:


> I have always valued AUT and ADI as almost equal as fas as SP goes. Every time I have been able to sell one and buy 12% more of the other with the proceeds I have done so. I have been back and forth a few times. That should show that when I say they are about equal I must believe it. When Sugarloaf looked as though it would pay off early I did value ADI higher than AUT.
> I don't think you have the acreage correct.




AUT announcement 18th AUG states they have 17,600 net acres.

ADI have 20% (Gross) of SL 20,000 acres ie:  4,000 acres.


----------



## tarzanhey

Sugarloaf Block A Update




 RNS Number:7251S
Empyrean Energy PLC
21 April 2008





                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
                          ----------------------------

- TCEI JV Block A-1 well begins to flow at commercial rates direct to sales
line.
- Well was being prepared for a fracture stimulation program and was not
expected to flow without stimulation.
- Very early encouragement as the well is expected to be stimulated during
forward operations.

Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and production assets
in Germany and USA today announces the following initial test results from its
TCEI JV Block A-1well on Block A at the Sugarloaf Project in Texas:

The TCEI JV Block A-1 well unexpectedly began to flow commercial quantities of
gas and condensate during operations to prepare the well for a fracture
stimulation and flow testing program. As of the latest report the well was
flowing at approximately 0.66 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas per day) with
approximately 130 bcpd (barrels of condensate per day) and 45 bwpd (barrels of
water per day) with a FTP (Flow Tubing Pressure) of around 2300 psi.

On the present day prices for condensate and gas whilst converting the
condensate to a gas equivalent, the most recent recorded equivalent gas flow
rate exceeds (using a 10:1 conversion) 2.0 mmcfepd (million cubic feet gas
equivalent per day).

The well will now be shut in for a pressure build up test. It is expected that
this well will be fracture stimulated during forward operations. The exact
timing of the program is not known and will depend on how the well performs in
the coming days without stimulation.

Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director Tom Kelly said "This gas and
condensate flow has come as a very pleasant early surprise as the well was not
expected to flow without stimulation. We could see a multiple on these
production rates if fracture stimulation proves successful. This well also had
liner cemented in place whereas future wells are likely to be completed without
cement using perforated liner slotted into the open hole. We now have 2 wells
flowing commercially from the 5 wells already drilled to date (3 of which are
yet to be tested) further de-risking the project."

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


For further information:
Empyrean Energy plc
Tel: +44(0) 207 182 1746

Rod Venables / Cecil Jordaan
HB Corporate
Tel: +44(0) 207 510 8600

Jonathan Charles / Ed Portman
Conduit PR
Tel: +44 (0) 207 429 6611 / +44 (0) 7791 892 509


----------



## Agentm

tck,  there is an AUT thread,, maybe discuss it there.. or maybe understand AUT botched their capital raising and left bell potter holding the can.. the adi manangement wont do that to their shareholders..

back to the news that just came through..

two wells now commercial, the Kunde 3 well has yet to be fraced, but its flowing on its own right now..

the results of these wells just show you that even if you cement a chalks well, and prerforate its going to flow..  pretty impressive formation.


----------



## Lucky_Country

So is K1 after Kunde 3 ?
I certainly hope so as with these kind of results it bodes well for a great company maker !


----------



## tck

Agentm said:


> tck,  there is an AUT thread,, maybe discuss it there.. or maybe understand AUT botched their capital raising and left bell potter holding the can.. the adi manangement wont do that to their shareholders..
> 
> back to the news that just came through..
> 
> two wells now commercial, the Kunde 3 well has yet to be fraced, but its flowing on its own right now..
> 
> the results of these wells just show you that even if you cement a chalks well, and prerforate its going to flow..  pretty impressive formation.




Agent M - Yes Great Result on Kunde 

I am a supporter of the  SL play  in general and was endeavouring to illustrate the valuations that apply to all the ASX listed JVP co's which i don't think people fully appreciate. 

 AUT & ADI & EKA are in my opinion all  undervalued


----------



## Nigel Foolsack

tck said:


> Agent M - Yes Great Result on Kunde
> 
> I am a supporter of the  SL play  in general and was endeavouring to illustrate the valuations that apply to all the ASX listed JVP co's which i don't think people fully appreciate.
> 
> AUT & ADI & EKA are in my opinion all  undervalued




Thanks TCK I have been of the opinion for sometime that AUT offers the best leverage to this play.
IF SL is shaping up as prospective as we all think it is (as evidenced by todays EME announcement) then I belive AUT is best positioned to fund the exploitation of SL.
Keep up the good work TCK


----------



## Lucky_Country

tck said:


> AUT & ADI & EKA are in my opinion all  undervalued




Not for much longer !
We could see a run greater than the  one 18 months ago that took us over $1 mark.
The stock is more tightly held now than then and people have far greater confidence in what they think they have got.
The hard work done over this time and patience shown by all long term holders is too be rewarded on success which should soon be known hopefully.


----------



## Agentm

tck

eme are currently up 20% to .50p  so they are about $1.05 a share

this is their value on the sugarloaf ami according to their website.

Texas Crude Energy remains the operator in Block "B" as does the 6% working interest earned by Empyrean by paying 7.5% of the costs under a previous agreement. In addition , under the terms of an additional agreement , Empyrean earns a further 12% by paying 20% of the costs. The first Block "B" well  part of the 16 well programme will be Kennedy#1 located about 5.5 miles to the east of the producing Sugarkane gas-condensate field. It is anticipated to spud mid- September 2007.


so if you look at their share price and compare it to the ausiie jvp.. how do you see it?

a agree with you.. ADI EKA and AUT have outstanding value, and my own view is similar to yours, all undervalued.. AUT has a massive risk to go "all in" on the sugarkane,  i am waiting to hear how they will get the operations happening on all their acreages.. 

but the news on kunde 3 demonstrates a lot about the sugarkanes ability to flow open hole regardless of what you do to it..

the announcement did not elaborate how much was perforated during its initial frac attempt.. so we have no real idea what section of the well is flowing.


----------



## tck

Agent M 

I think the ASX listed co's are more of an appealing  value on a relative basis because my understanding is that EME fund their participation on a well by well basis which could ultimatelty be more dilutive to share holders given the number of wells that need to be drilled.


----------



## Agentm

cant see that myself, these wells when built properly will be paying themselves off in a month or two imho.. 15 years after that is profit.. 

the sugarloaf ami would not allow the same deal they have with the conoco wells

the eme share is now .60p  or $1.26


----------



## sam76

I'm now in the black with this share.

What a strange feeling it is....



Once again thanks to Agent M for helping me to keep the faith..


----------



## Agentm

the report from eme gave little away on what it was they perforated, but i am very encouraged that now 3 out of 3 wells have been commercial..  and if a vertical such as kunde 1 is commercial just on the extremely  high matrix propsity, then the future of the play look very very promising..

_"This gas and condensate flow has come as a very pleasant early surprise as the well was not expected to flow without stimulation. We could see a multiple on these production rates if fracture stimulation proves successful. This well also had liner cemented in place whereas future wells are likely to be completed without cement using perforated liner slotted into the open hole. We now have 2 wells flowing commercially from the 5 wells already drilled to date (3 of which are yet to be tested) further de-risking the project."
_
tom kelly is very upbeat right now, who wouldnt be.. he is correct on the derisking of the project.. if you look at the reasons for these wells being drilled (leases were running out) and not on the basis of most prospective targets.. then it will be very interesting to see these chalks drilled on acreages where they have the very prospective natural fractures..

for me i am never going to keep my eye off the outcome, the reason for the investment, and that for me is for our sugarloaf AMI jvp to open up kennedy and to put in place a forward well program..


----------



## Agentm

last few days has seen a lot of buying interest into adi.. its seemingly holding to a different value every day.

as yet none of the jvp's are releasing anything about the sugarkane, the kennedy well nor the forward plans,,, when will this so called "soon" announcement that AUT alluded to in their presentation happen?


----------



## Sean K

Was an outstanding breakout from the downward trend around the green circle. Need to see some higher highs and lows appearing on the long term chart for a definate change to up. Just coming up against some old resistance, next at 50. Looking like a definate change in sentiment.


----------



## nioka

Been a good day to get value switching from ADI to AUT. It has been easy to get 4 AUT for 3 ADI and still have some change after brokerage. I may lose out if the jump in ADI is not Sugarloaf related but I saw value in the change for me.


----------



## resourceboom

Hi Kennas, not trying to start a fight or anything but you seem to have changed your tune.  Before you seemed very negative. The good news in regards to ADI's ground hasn't started.

Still plenty to prove up before the ADI reaches its potential share price wise.  Hopefully the great news next door has helped derisk it a good deal.

& Prawny, hows H1 and H2 going...?



kennas said:


> Was an outstanding breakout from the downward trend around the green circle. Need to see some higher highs and lows appearing on the long term chart for a definate change to up. Just coming up against some old resistance, next at 50. Looking like a definate change in sentiment.


----------



## Sean K

resourceboom said:


> Hi Kennas, not trying to start a fight or anything but you seem to have changed your tune.  Before you seemed very negative. The good news in regards to ADI's ground hasn't started.



Of course I was negative. Look at the chart up to 10 April ish. It was disasterous! Since it broke up, it's been outstanding. I'm only commenting on the chart, and as identified before there'll probably be resistance around this level. Hopefully not.


----------



## sam76

Thought it might be nice to post EME's chart up.

Finished the week up 6% to close on 60 pence.

After looking at this I'm sure we're all eagerly awaiting Kennedy to be cracked now 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=eme:ln


----------



## Gspot

A quick drop from 48 only a day ago, which is disappointing. As usual, on low vol, probably 1 seller wanting out, for reasons unknown.
 Starting to really annoy me, how little management keep their share holders informed. What happened to wednesday updates? Or just updates?
I think I'll make time to call them today.


----------



## nioka

Another good day for trading between ADI and AUT. This time I took the advantage to reverse the trade I made last Thursday by selling the AUT and buying back the ADI. Without outlaying any funds I have increased my holding in ADI once again.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> Another good day for trading between ADI and AUT. This time I took the advantage to reverse the trade I made last Thursday by selling the AUT and buying back the ADI. Without outlaying any funds I have increased my holding in ADI once again.




as i said, i like your style, and i think your outstanding in this practice of cross trading so to speak!

my view is that the AUT announcement of "soon" is about to arrive, the ADI quartely will obviously contain the elements that we are all waiting for, and the wheels of motion are starting to crank up slowly..  the shackles are coming off, i think myself that this puppy is about to draw a breath and come to life..  maybe the end of the ground hog days!!


----------



## tarzanhey

write up from ED - http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/articles/art.php?EME5

A very active year for Empyrean has seen them establish modest production from shallow discovery wells at the Margarita Project in Texas, and in the last few days, confirm commercial gas flows at the Sugarloaf Project in Texas which is shaping up as a major discovery.

Tom Kelly, Chief Executive Officer of Empyrean Energy, has a straightforward game plan. Since listing in 2005, the concept of Empyrean was to invest in more advanced, technically sound projects that had drilling on the immediate horizon. Tom didn’t want to be chasing grass roots or frontier exploration projects that required years of investment and time before a drill-ready target was defined. Since listing, Empyrean has stuck to this model and is now reaping the rewards. 

Empyrean listed on AIM in mid 2005 with the high risk/high reward Glantal Gas Project, in Germany and has since balanced their portfolio by earning into projects that offered the potential for near term production. Of course, oil and gas exploration and development is never an easy game, and all kinds of things can go wrong, even after a commercial discovery has been made. However, to date, Empyrean has had an impressive technical track record: every well the company has participated in has returned oil or gas shows. Completion problems at the Eagle Oil Pool, where oil shows were recorded, overshadowed the company, plus there were non-commercial gas flows from the first exploration well at Glantal. However, commercial discoveries from 3 out of 6 wells drilled at Margarita, in Texas, and recent news that two wells on the Sugarloaf Project have flowed commercial rates of gas, have rejuvenated shareholders’ optimism and sent the shares soaring.

Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) first identified the Sugarloaf Project whilst examining seismic for shallower play types. The size of the structure made it one of the biggest untested structures onshore USA. The big appeal of the prospect was the potential for multiple pay zones at different depths. Empyrean started out with a 6% working interest in Block B, a 22,000 acre landholding operated by TCEI. 

The first well drilled, Sugarloaf-1, identified multiple gas shows both in the Hosston sands and the secondary targets of the Austin chalks and Edwards formation. These carbonate plays are proven in discoveries all around the Sugarloaf license, with several significant oil and gas fields - discovered in the 1950s and 1960s - containing a cumulative 5TCF of gas and 100MMbbls of oil. Carbonates can provide excellent reservoirs for commercial accumulations due to natural cracks and fissures opening up permeability. In most cases, carbonates need to be fractured to open up the reservoir and allow natural cracks and fissures to connect and channel gas and/or liquids to the wellbore. Fracture stimulation of the Hosston Formation recovered only minor gas at a rate too small to measure, so a decision was made to plug off the Hosston and to test the shallower plays. 

Before these shallower zones were tested, TCEI and partners increased their leased areas around the Sugarloaf discovery. Empyrean also announced a new deal with TCEI giving them an increased interest in wells drilled on Block B and also giving them an interest in wells drilled on the adjacent Block A where they previously had none. The new deal is for the next 16 wells drilled, after the Sugarloaf-1 well, on either Block A or B, where they earn 7.5% of Block A wells drilled as part of the 16 well deal and an additional 12% of Block B wells drilled as part of the 16 well deal. Assuming there will be 8 wells drilled on each block as part of the program - the deal gives them 7.5% of the Block A wells and a total of 18% working interest in 8 wells on Block B. Beyond the 16 well deal, Empyrean retain their 6% working interest in Block B.

Subsequently, the A-1 well - the first of the sixteen wells to be drilled - has returned spectacular results. The well was earmarked for fracture stimulation but flowed commercial quantities of gas during preparations. This is big news for Empyrean, as it implies that subsequent wells on the field may not require fraccing if natural cracks can be targeted; something that can be identified on 3-D seismic. Not having to fracc reduces the cost and complexity of the well completions. On testing, A-1 has already recorded flow rates exceeding 2mmcfepd (million cubic feet gas equivalent per day). This flow rate could increase substantially with fraccing.

Equally good results emanated from the A-3 well too, where a horizontal well stopped short of its proposed target after encountering strong gas flows and high pressure. Testing to date has recorded flow rates exceeding 7.8mmcfepd - this time from an open hole test, again with no fracture stimulation.

All of this recent good newsflow has sent shares in Empyrean soaring, with the prospect of the company having an interest in, potentially, one of the largest U.S. gas field discoveries for many years. Results to date are excellent, and the potential to drill horizontal wells and increase gas flow by multiples is very enticing. In many ways, Empyrean Energy’s business model has been completely vindicated by the success at Sugarloaf, and enticingly, there are plenty more wells to drill. Results from the Kennedy 1 Well are pending.

The past twelve months have been particularly active for Empyrean Energy with a largely successful campaign of shallow wells in Texas bringing the company its first cash flow. Viewing the volatility and range of the share price over the same period, it is clear that it has not all been plain sailing. Nonetheless, there is no doubt that Empyrean now has significant potential in the Sugarloaf carbonate reservoirs. The option for Empyrean to participate in the 16 well deal at Sugarloaf to appraise (and develop) the Austin chalk reserves, will be one of the driving forces behind the share price for the rest of 2008 and 2009. The production thus far has come from the uppermost zone of three potentially productive zones. The two deeper zones are likely to be tested shortly, and have the potential to double or even triple the recoverable reserves of the Sugarloaf Project discovery. Empyrean suddenly finds itself in a very enviable position. It still has £1.4 million in the bank, with cash flow from Margarita and several commercial discoveries at Sugarloaf. Glantal and Eagle Oil Pool still sit in the portfolio, but at last investors can look past those projects and focus on the rapidly evolving portfolio in Texas which looks set to keep investors on their toes for many months to come.


----------



## tomcat

Sugarloaf Block A Update

RNS Number:4129T
Empyrean Energy PLC
30 April 2008



                              Empyrean Energy PLC
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

                          Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
                          ----------------------------

- TCEI JV Block A-1 well continues to flow at commercial rates direct to
  sales line.

Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and production assets
in Germany and USA today announces the following initial test results from its
TCEI JV Block A-1well on Block A at the Sugarloaf Project in Texas:

Since the last report the TCEI JV Block A-1 well was shut in for a pressure
build up test and then subsequently opened to flow. As of the latest report the
well was flowing to sales at approximately 0.50 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas
per day) with approximately 150 bcpd (barrels of condensate per day) and 20 bwpd
(barrels of water per day) with a FTP (Flow Tubing Pressure) of around 660 psi.

On the present day prices for condensate and gas whilst converting the
condensate to a gas equivalent, the most recent recorded equivalent gas flow
rate approximates (using a 10:1 conversion) 2.0 mmcfepd (million cubic feet gas
equivalent per day). The well has had an average equivalent flow rate above 2.0
mmcfepd for the past week, peaking at approximately 2.4 mmcfepd.

Commenting today, Empyrean Director - Tom Kelly said "This well is flowing
nicely to sales. Importantly this well is flowing from about 900 feet of
perforations from a total 2700 feet of horizontal well. When the well is
stimulated it is likely the operator will add perforations as well as performing
multiple fracture stimulations with the aim of enhancing the flow rates".

A further announcement will be made when the timing of the planned fracture
stimulation on this well is confirmed by the operator.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


----------



## Agentm

Eureka is pleased to announce that it has agreed the placement of
10,500,000 shares at an issue price of 17 cents per share to raise
$1,785,000, before the costs of the issue.
Funds raised from this issue are intended to be applied to the
Sugarloaf gas and condensate project in Texas, USA, and in
particular, to Eureka’s 12.5% share of drilling activities for the
remainder of 2008 and early 2009.


----------



## Agentm

KENNEDY-1H OPERATIONAL UPDATE

Adelphi Energy announces that it has been advised by Texas Crude Energy
International (“TCEI”), Operator of the Sugarloaf AMI that preparations for fracture operations have commenced on the Kennedy-1H well.
The well has been completed with a 4  ½” cemented liner with an effective Total Depth (“TD”) of 16,530ft. The liner has been previously cleaned out and by 0600 hrs on 6th May 2008 four intervals in the deepest quarter of the hole had been perforated using coiled tubing and a tractor assembly.
The well is now shut in and being pressure monitored. The fracture stimulation is scheduled to commence on Friday 9th May, depending on equipment availability.

Recent analysis of the Kennedy-1H well suggests that the horizontal section of the well may be completed in a deeper chalk zone than the zone that is already producing in an adjacent lease block (Block A). The deeper chalk zone in which the well appears to be located has demonstrated gas charge in offset wells and this well, but has not as yet been produced in a sustained manner. If the well is in the deeper zone then positive results from the fracture stimulation of this zone may provide significant additional potential recoverable reserves. If this zone is not productive then it does not affect the productive potential of the zone already producing gas and condensate in the adjacent block (Block A).

We are also cautious about the potential productivity that will be achieved from this well because it did not appear to exhibit indications of natural fractures when it was drilled, and recent technical work has indicated improvements can be applied to future completion design. However, information learned from the Kennedy operation will contribute significantly to the appraisal of the area and can be incorporated into future wells.

Regardless of the specific result from the flow test result from Kennedy-1H, further  drilling to evaluate the Sugarloaf acreage under lease (approx. 22,000 acres) is expected to commence in the third quarter of 2008.



worth thinking about!  the well is in the lower zones!


----------



## cicak_kupang

Todays announcement has alot of info in it, if you read it very carefully and think about what it is they're saying.  Still the usual "if, but" feel to it, but there is certainly a positive underlying feeling to the announcement.

More activity in 3rd quarter...


----------



## kash

AgentM please intepret. Did they drill too low and missed the area they were trying to drill? It doesn't sound too positive that this hole will do anything and their directing our attention to the next hole. Please help


----------



## Agentm

Sounds like the operator has eventually concluded that the well is not in the zone.

added to this they completed the well  by cementing the casing.

so what is now known is that kunde 1 in Zone 1 had shows, then they fraced it, the well has flowed ever since and proved the matrix porosity factor in the chalks allows the formation to produce.

kennedy is about to be fraced and a great deal will be learned over the prospectivity of the chalks with fracture stimulation.


----------



## wallave

Agent M

"The deeper chalk zone in which the well appears to be located has demonstrated gas charge in offset wells and this well, but has not as yet been produced in a sustained manner. If the well is in the deeper zone then positive results from the fracture stimulation of this zone may provide significant additional potential recoverable reserves.

Is the above what you are pointing towards the exciting part of the announcment??

Thanks


----------



## Agentm

my view on these chalks is that they are certainly unique.

1/ the condensate is about 58% gravity, quite unique

2/ the matrix porosity is very high, its been quoted as high as 16%. it would be fair to say that ordinarily chalks wells dont usually have anyhing like that type of matrix porsity. and usually the chalks wells flow on the strength of natural fractures which greatly improve the connectivity of the well to the rock.. Its been demonstrated in kunde 1 that the matrix porosity was sufficient there to allow the frac on the vertical well to flow and the well has been on production for a good year or more. 

3/ the well although not located perhaps in the upper zone, will now frac the lower 1/4 of the well. and if the chalks behave such as they do in the kunde 1 well then its extremely correct to say 

"If the well is in the deeper zone then positive results from the fracture stimulation of this zone may provide significant additional potential recoverable reserves"

the kennedy well had a number of zones which encountered elevated gas readings, these zones may be just the spot to frac the well and gauge the chalks.. fracing chalks is not a common practice imho, an acid treatment can also be a great way to stimulate and open up the chalks. but the frac at kunde 1 has absolutely changed things around.. firstly they diagnosed it, then looked into the region and saw it was picked up in a broad area, hence the massive lease buy up..

i think the zone 2 region has always been considered as prospective,conocophillips with kunde 2 is about to test that region in the vertical, and here we are in the thick of it and about to frac it in a horizontal.

there is a long way to go on this well, and i look forward to this initial frac, and my expectation is that the formation should perform as kunde 1 has, then its very exciting news..


----------



## Agentm

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in
Germany and USA today announces the following:

Kennedy #1 Well

Empyrean is pleased to announce that it has been advised by Texas Crude Energy International ("TCEI"), the operator of Block B on the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field, that preparations for fracture operations have commenced on the Kennedy #1 well.

The well has been completed with a 4 1/2" cemented liner with an effective total depth of 16,530 feet. The liner has been previously cleaned out and by 06:00 hrs on 6th May 2008 (US CST) four intervals in the deepest quarter of the hole had been perforated using coiled tubing and a tractor assembly.

The well has now been shut in with down hole gauges for pressure monitoring
until final preparations start later this week for the fracture operations.  The
fracture stimulation is presently scheduled to commence on Friday 9th May,
depending on equipment availability.

*Vertical wells drilled so far at Sugarloaf (Sugarloaf-1 well & TCEI Block A-2
well) have intersected three broad potential pay zones whilst drilling. These
can be broadly categorised into "upper", "middle" and "lower" potential pay
zones. The 80 feet thick upper pay zone has now been proven productive with the TCEI Block A-1 and A-3 wells. The 120 feet thick middle potential pay zone has not yet been flow tested. The bottom part of this zone is expected to be tested by the TCEI Block A-2 vertical well. The 50 feet thick lower potential pay zone has been proven to contain gas and condensate (during initial testing at Sugarloaf-1) but has not yet proven commercial.

Recent analysis of the Kennedy #1 well suggests that the horizontal portion of the well predominantly drilled a deeper chalk zone (i.e. the middle potential
pay zone) in addition to the upper zone that is producing gas and condensate
from the TCEI Block A-1 and A-3 wells. The perforations are expected to test the top part of the middle potential pay zone. A successful test of this middle
potential pay zone, either from the Kennedy #1 well or the TCEI Block A-2
vertical well, may provide significant additional potential recoverable
reserves. If the middle potential pay zone is not productive it does not affect
the potential of the upper zone that is already producing from the TCEI Block
A-1 and A-3 wells.*
Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest in the TCEI Block A-1, A-2 and A-3 wells.

In addition it has a 6% working interest in the Sugarloaf-1 well and a 18%
working interest in the Kennedy #1 well on Block B.

Further updates will be provided following developments.

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Not sure what to make of the latest announcement with the drilling of the zones.
Could become a real boon for the jvp if the zone is productive but was this an intentional target or an of track drill.
ADI seemed too wording there statement very carefully and not giving there thoughts on the zone away but if they were not confident would they be wasting there time fraccing K1 and wasting alot of money ?


----------



## Agentm

the unknown unknowns hey! drilled low. thats the long and the short of it.

the activity in the chalks that TCEI got there is plenty, its not like theres nil to work with..

options are plenty...... and if you look at what the wells have no had done to them in kunde 3 and baker, imho there is plenty of scope for improvement.  they appear to be doing what you expect, studying the reservour..

not overly concerned about the situation, the kennedy well is absolutely not looking at a P&A, imho its being viewed in a completely different light over in texas to how the jvp's are painting it over here, only tom at eme seems to be on the pulse imho..

conservative and cautious is a good approach, as it would be out of line for adi to pump this play right now and then be faced with some severe flack if the outcome was less than expected, so setting a very low expectation is very responsible, but i would be equally cautious in not underestimating anything to do with kennedy at this point in time 

all imho and dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

Yes cautious in the wording is always a wise thing too.
The thing that worries me tho is why wait untill 3 days before fraccing before telling everyone the are off target ?
The have had this well drilled for 6 months now surely they would have known before now.
That being said doesnt mean Im writing K1 off just got me wondering why they have only just told us.
Still on a good thing imo.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Yes cautious in the wording is always a wise thing too.
> The thing that worries me tho is why wait untill 3 days before fraccing before telling everyone the are off target ?
> The have had this well drilled for 6 months now surely they would have known before now.
> That being said doesnt mean Im writing K1 off just got me wondering why they have only just told us.
> Still on a good thing imo.






 since the well was completed there was conjecture i believe, i think the last weeks is the first time since completion that any coil tubing unit could get on the well and do some investigations..

my view is that the plans afoot on kennedy are designed to get some return of the shows. and imho there is every chance the well will be capable of producing regardless of the less than favourable completion of the well.  many things that can be done to stimulate these wells have not been done as yet, and i am certain the reasons for the frac and what they will learn will have far reaching impacts on the jvps


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well fracing over Friday and the weekend should be some kind of results out by monday so I wonder what the jvp will have too say.
Get the feeling that EME will be the first too announce something that always seems to be the way.
If K1 has a positive result then that would really bode well for for the rest of the project.
Still keep wondering when will we hear something about NT just have a good feeling that the results there were above expectations.


----------



## maverick11

Lucky_Country, I heard a couple weeks ago that NT was resolved and we get to walk away, cost free.  No upside, but no downside either.


----------



## Agentm

"The well is now shut in and being pressure monitored. The fracture stimulation is scheduled to commence on Friday 9th May, *depending on equipment availability.*"

dont always assume everything went to plan. 

anyone noticing the recent changes in the top 20, its a cosy family in there and a lot of extremely confident players in that crowd.


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> "The well is now shut in and being pressure monitored. The fracture stimulation is scheduled to commence on Friday 9th May, *depending on equipment availability.*"
> 
> dont always assume everything went to plan.
> 
> anyone noticing the recent changes in the top 20, its a cosy family in there and a lot of extremely confident players in that crowd.




Hmm Agentm are you saying that they have not started?

Or that they did not start Friday?

How long do you think it will take them to complete one frac section?


----------



## Agentm

tarzanhey said:


> Hmm Agentm are you saying that they have not started?
> 
> Or that they did not start Friday?
> 
> How long do you think it will take them to complete one frac section?




my view is that the addition of the term "depending on equipment availability" must be taken into consideration if your trying to suggest the operation had commenced.

not aware of timings, but i imagine the frac will not be a big operation,  days not weeks on this one imho..

the amount of leases going through in karnes county continues to be staggering, i am hearing the brokers see karnes county as one of "the hottest counties" and the court houses are jammed with crews scouring the lease records. its extremely active to say the least, there is not a landowner in karnes not aware of what is happening.. i saw a geologist website in the us that had mr paul bordovsky discuss his family's ranch where the conoco rig is drilling right now, they were discussing the availability of drilling core samples with other geologists, anyways some clown went on there trying to get info on bordovsky and he asks if its agent m!!  imho there are many landowners in texas investing in the jvps..


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> my view is that the addition of the term "depending on equipment availability" must be taken into consideration if your trying to suggest the operation had commenced.
> 
> not aware of timings, but i imagine the frac will not be a big operation,  days not weeks on this one imho..
> 
> the amount of leases going through in karnes county continues to be staggering, i am hearing the brokers see karnes county as one of "the hottest counties" and the court houses are jammed with crews scouring the lease records. its extremely active to say the least, there is not a landowner in karnes not aware of what is happening.. i saw a geologist website in the us that had mr paul bordovsky discuss his family's ranch where the conoco rig is drilling right now, they were discussing the availability of drilling core samples with other geologists, anyways some clown went on there trying to get info on bordovsky and he asks if its agent m!!  imho there are many landowners in texas investing in the jvps..





Yes I spotted that - It seems you are world famous! keep up the good work and research. there are many of us investors - and maybe also it seems  Landowners who are following your research.

Fingers crossed for Kennedy! 

cheers 


tarz


----------



## Lucky_Country

Waiting waiting !
Well no news is good news imo hopefully they are digesting the flow rates they are getting so they can give a good acurate announcement too the market.
If flow rates were no production they may have released the info by now of course they may have had a delay on the arrival of equipment but feel it has been planned well in advance.
Time will tell.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country

you are assuming the well has been fraced, yet there is no news forthcoming, imho if a frac had happened, good or bad the news would be out by now..

as for delays on the frac, that is speculation only..

my view is when it happens it happens, there are 4 zones they are to test, and no one is privy to the logs or can tell anything from now till the operation is completed.

the advantage to adi is that the zone 2 region is not a factor in its sp, so any flow from these chalks will do two things, it will greatly improve the reserves that the jvp can attribute to the result, and it would also give great support to zone one being equally prospective..

on the downside, if the middle zone is not productive, it has no bearing on the upper zones prospectivity as the two horizontals., one open hole, and one completed completely wrong, have both got commercial flow without stimulation.  so in essence the sp has not got any value in it for zone 2, so any failure in the well would imho not be a factor in the prospectivity of zone 1.  but markets react differently to news dont they!


i think the way kunde 3 has been able to get great flow, with a well that is identical to kennedy and cemented and completed the wrong way, shows that unstimulated chalks are showing great connectivity to wells thus far, even the vertical kunde 1 has been demonstrating flow on the frac of the chalks.  the kennedy well could be a good place to learn as much as possible on the middle chalks, and what high matricx chalks can do in the horizontal..

although not ideally what the jvp had wanted, there is plenty that this appraisal well can deliver. on one hand it can deliver some pretty amazing results if the chalks react to fracture and stimulation, and it has already answered a lot of things on well design, and completions and will give invaluable data on the chalks also..  

further wells are already on the drawing board, regardless of  this result the zone 1 region is going to be explored by the jvp..

upside good.. and failure should not nessesarily have any impact on the prospectivity of having 20% of 3tcf and 500mmbbls in zone 1..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Waiting waiting waiting !
Wonder if we will get some kind of weekly update today just like the good old times 2 years ago !
The middle zone could really give us a boost and am looking forward too seing their drilling program for the 3rd Qtr that should shed some light on how much they rate their block.
Fraccing would hopefully at least be underway by now and results forthcoming I hope !


----------



## resourceboom

Sorry mate, can't remember, wasn't the 3tcf & 500mmbbls for the defined sugarkane 200K acres, and not our 20K acres?



Agentm said:


> should not nessesarily have any impact on the prospectivity of having 20% of 3tcf and 500mmbbls in zone 1..


----------



## Agentm

yes thats correct.. we have 10% of the 200,000 acres and in terms of wi we currently have 20% of that.


----------



## mick z

agentm, you said currently we have 20% wi.

are you trying to tell us somethink ?????  lol

mick


----------



## speculator101

*ADI - Adelphi Energy - ARQ creep?*

Hi All. Just wondering why ARQ has not purchased more of ADI if it has such a bright future?

I know it has a large holding, and must either make a bid for the company, or 'creep' buy more shares. Has it done this in the past? Or is it allowed to...etc?
Im assuming if it did start buying more, then the sp would indeed go crazy. 

IMHO.

And yes, i have held on for a looonnnnggg time.


----------



## Agentm

that question is best answered by arq management and its shareholders wouldnt you think?  its their investment after all.


----------



## speculator101

I fully agree and understand that Agentm, I was more just postulating why ARQ might not want to get a little more involved; perhaps due to the possible takeover offer from AWE, or, simply because it would seem from your and others commentary that ADI has a great future. Sorry if this post is off topic of just ADI.

Anyway, Im just waiting like the rest of the holders..... FOR NEWS!!

IMHO


----------



## nioka

*Re: ADI - Adelphi Energy - ARQ creep?*



speculator101 said:


> Hi All. Just wondering why ARQ has not purchased more of ADI if it has such a bright future?
> 
> I know it has a large holding, and must either make a bid for the company, or 'creep' buy more shares. Has it done this in the past? Or is it allowed to...etc?
> Im assuming if it did start buying more, then the sp would indeed go crazy.
> 
> IMHO.
> 
> And yes, i have held on for a looonnnnggg time.




 Just speculation ........but suppose the directors of ADI are holding ADI as an oiler investment which they will still have if ARQ is taken over by another company that may not want them to continue. They may not want ARQ to have a larger share at this stage.

ADI is fairly tightly held with ARQ having a good share and the next top shareholders in for the long haul. If ARQ started buying the price would rocket.

Just my opinion. Not based on any particular facts that are not readily available. DYOR


----------



## cicak_kupang

Though id post the top 20 s holders here for quick ref. I'll post the top 20 every so often so we can see who the movers are.. / changes...


Top 20 Shareholders
As at 10 May 2008

Rank Shareholder Total Units  
1 ARC Energy Limited  33,900,000 
2 ANZ Nominees Limited (SL Cash Income 4SF A/C)  4,309,900 
3 SG Growth Equities Limited 2,351,500 
4 Mr Alexander Forcke 1,516,667 
5 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited  1,500,332  
6 Rotherwood Enterprises Pty Ltd  1,259,100  
7 Beech Grove Pty Ltd  1,241,027 
8 Rocket Science Pty Ltd (Trojan Retirement Fund A/C) 1,200,000  
9 Christine Mary Streitberg  1,200,000 
10 Libbit Holdings Pty Ltd (Bitomsky Super Fund No. 1 A/C) 1,155,999 
11 Mr Graham Douglas Riley & Mrs Anne Marie Riley 1,016,667 
12 Mr Thomas Brian Cannon  880,000 
13 ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C)  820,484 
14 Michael Craft Pty Ltd (Superannuation Fund Account)  800,000 
15 Merrill Lynch (Australia) Nominees Pty Limited 733,215 
16 JJNA Super Pty Ltd 716,667 
17 Mr Paul Nagle & Mrs Jacqueline Terri Nagle 700,000 
18 Taperslee Pty Ltd 614,719 
19 Hot Springs Pty Ltd 600,000 
20 Rocket Science Pty Ltd (Trojan Capital Fund A/C) 536,151 
  TOTAL 57,052,428


----------



## Agentm

i know the topic has not been on kennedy, but imho despite the fact there have been discussions here on arq, i feel the point is being missed..

there is a well being fraced in texas..  does anyone have aview on the implications of what zone 2 would have if it proved a success?


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> i know the topic has not been on kennedy, but imho despite the fact there have been discussions here on arq, i feel the point is being missed..
> 
> there is a well being fraced in texas..  does anyone have aview on the implications of what zone 2 would have if it proved a success?





SORRY I HAVE ADDED ANOTHER POINT (8) AND ENDED UP WITH ANOTHER POST - NOT INTENTIONAL.

I have - After the negative announcement put out about the frac commencement it is hard for some people to see what it really could do.

implications of what zone 2 would have if it proved a success

1. It will the first commercial find, proven for the Aussie JVP on Block B - making ADI a producer.
2. It could, by proving up zone 2 as commercial, effectively double the value of the play in an instant. 
3. Spark off the forward drill plan - in the style of Couches (100 wells to get this oil out).oil rich, gas, condensate?
4. Increase the chances of zone 3 being commercial.
5. If this zone proves a success it will bring the attention of the market to the whole play over our acreages.
6. I have always held the feeling that zone 2 could be the biggie - since I think Charles Couches famous page on the Website was around the zone 2 area and no logs ever saw the light of day from that area (only my opinion and maybe wrong),that is what sparked the removal of Couch from view
6. Ground Hog day will be over.
7. Agentm will be arranging a party somewhere in Thailand.
8. Edit I forgot another important = very important point - It will mean we can produce without a natural fracture from the chalks !!!!!

Tarzan


----------



## Agentm

KENNEDY-1H OPERATIONAL UPDATE


Further to our release of 7 May, 2008 Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) advises that an approx. 600 foot zone at the bottom of the Kennedy-1 horizontal well was hydraulic fracture stimulated (fracced) on 14 May, 2008.
The frac went according to plan and by 18 May a total of approx. 940 bbls of fracfluid had been recovered, with 4,480 bbls still to be recovered. In addition to the frac fluid some 30 bbls of condensate and minor quantities of gas were also recovered.

The current operation is preparing to set a packer and production tubing which will facilitate efficient flow from the well.

The significance of the condensate and gas recoveries and the implication for
potential flow rates will not be known until all frac fluids are recovered. This may take several days.

Further releases will be made on completion of the testing operation or beforehand if there is significant news to report.


in a few days the well will be flowing on its own. interesting to see the fracture of the chalks has been a success. There is definately pressure in the well and they are getting the frac fluids to return.. i remain positive on this one.


----------



## blues

All loking good imo. They are getting condensate while still cleaning up which has to be seen as positive as well as successfully fraccing the chalks.


----------



## maverick11

Agentm said:


> The current operation is preparing to set a packer and production tubing which will facilitate efficient flow from the well.




This one has me intrigued agentm.  I wonder if they're making commercial implications.  If this flows commercially from zone 2, this will be very exciting indeed!!


----------



## Agentm

blues, the last bit has been missed by all.. 

"as well as successfully fraccing the chalks. "


chalks are not fraced traditionally as they dont flow off a frac , unless the high matrix chalks can allow it.  the success in the frac is monumentally important to everyone, and to be able to tap into the chalks and fracture stimulate it and not rely soley on natural fractures, which is the only way to get commercial wells traditionally in all thr major chalks fields like the giddings and pearsall, which have nothing in terms of matrix porosity like we have in the sugarkane..  its extremely exciting news.. 

its like most things on this share,, it slips past the keeper..

the jvp are making no comment on anything so far, they will want to be 100% sure that this stunning news continues, then i am sure they will be opening up and delivering their verdict..

imho, right now i am extremely pleased.. looking forward to the confirmations and updates.


----------



## Broadside

how do you see things unfolding now AgentM? do you think we will see an acceleration of the entire program?  thanks for all your posts, continue to hold and always read your opinions with interest.


----------



## Agentm

imho there is a lot of work to be done on all the wells so far completed, including the borovsky well conoco has completed in karnes county recently.

meridian are about to drill in the near future, and wells are planned by the jvp already, the idea is to complete kennedy, and there are many wells that  conoco have that could be completed in the near future also.. 

the successful frac is a milestone, and very important to the abilty to explore and drill dual laterals or even more elaborate configurations into the chalks in the future..

the flow back of fluids with condensate and gas is a good sign, but once the fluids have returned they have more options still on the well to further stimulate the chalks.. these are real early days and its looking very positive thus far. only 900 feet perforated and we do not know which chalks had the best shows and which section of the well is viewed the most favourable. it would be impossible to say the back end of kennedy is the most prospective, from memory they got a few shows more in first half of the well. never heard anything positive on the last section.. so if these chalks are not the best ones and most ideal and they flow,, its extremely exciting imho..


----------



## noco

Interesting buy by ARC today. Holdings in ADI increased from 17,500,000 to 33,900,000 reprsenting an increase of voting power from 24.88 to 31.994.
ARC must have a lot of confidence as to what is happening with ADI.
ALL IS LOOKING GOOD FOR ADI  SHARE HOLDERS.


----------



## Agentm

noco

cant say i get your post exactly???

the arq holding has been at the level it is today for a considerable time..


----------



## noco

Agentm said:


> noco
> 
> cant say i get your post exactly???
> 
> the arq holding has been at the level it is today for a considerable time..




Yes Agentm you are right; it was just a formalisation from 15/09/06 and 10/01/07. Thought I was onto something good. Will have to read the info more carefully next time.


----------



## Agentm

i think the announcement took its time to get out, a touch late imho..

perhaps picked up in due dilligence?


it has been like many things adi, long in the wait..


----------



## cicak_kupang

Why would ARQ re-release an old announcement about thier increased holding in ADI, on the same day when ADI has a promising sounding announcement, if ARQ wasnt trying to maybe draw importance to what ADI has at SL?
Maybe ARQ knows what they are onto at SL and are trying to draw attention to that.  If that results in any substantial ARQ SP increase, may also mean that AWE may have to re-nego an offer for ARQ?  IE; the $1.59 per share offer with 32% interest in ADI with what they are onto at SL is a bargan basement price and ARQ wants a better offer?

Comments Anyone?


----------



## Agentm

i think your drawing a long bow.. arq does not practice the things you suggest

imho you need to forget all about arq..  in all seriousness the focus that adi have right now is entirely on a well called kennedy 1h in texas.   that well has brought back gas and condensate in  the return of frac fluids and in a few days as the well cleans up there is a good chance that the kennedy well which is out of zone may just produce from the matrix chalks without any connectivity to any natural fractures.


----------



## barney

Both ADI and particularly AUT being pushed up today on only a handful of orders ................  and I doubt it is "short covering"  
I suspect an announcement is close, and the price action points to a positive statement. I actually don't expect too much from Kennedy due to the off target drill, but a lot of tries in rugby league are scored after a dropped ball   ........ Lets get this game started ... The crowd is restless


----------



## blues

Update from Bounty today. ADI does have other things about to happen.

WISTERIA 1 – AC/P 32, TIMOR SEA
Bounty Oil & Gas N.L. (“Bounty”) announces that drilling of the Wisteria 1 well in
the Vulcan Sub Basin; AC/P 32; Ashmore Cartier Region, Timor Sea is on track to
commence in late July, 2008 using the “Western Atlas” rig.
Bounty holds a 10% interest in the well and in this large 1,092 sq km permit.
Bounty is contributing 7.6% to the dry hole cost of Wisteria 1.
Wisteria 1 will test 3 zones for oil with a combined resource potential estimated at
around 180 mmbbls of oil.


----------



## Agentm

there is a lot to like about wisteria i think, initially i had little regard for it, but i have been looking at the jvp's research they put on their websites, and its extremely interesting.. 

yemen really excites me and i cant stress how good block 7 is..

sugarkane, well for me itsthe major reason for the long stay in this share..

looking forwad to the O&G conference in sydney, will repot on here and the other boards on what i pick up,, i hear a few others will also be there so plenty to come..

watch for the adi release on the day (tuesday i imagine) should be very insightful on all the projects and give investors, and future prospective investors a lot to digest..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Oil at record highs ADI must be licking their lips at a positive outcome from K1 but will we get a positive outcome.
2 weeks since testing began and seems that there announcements are very carefully worded that to me says they are quitely confident.
What will this week bring a final result on K1 positive or negative ?


----------



## Agentm

there are two ways of looking at this.. 

one is that all outcomes completely are dependant on kennedy..

the other is that the future of the play is already known and that irrespective of kennedy the sugarkane zones are going to be developed..

only one is really correct..


all imho and dyor, and suggest aut presentation recently will give you the answer..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well I must agree with you there AgentM and my feeling is regardless of K1 Sugarkane will be developed !
Time will tell but surely news must be forthcoming soon !
We have waited thyis long lets hear the full story ADI


----------



## Agentm

KENNEDY-1H OPERATIONS UPDATE Eureka Energy Limited (ASX: EKA, “Eureka” or “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc. (“TCEI”), the Operator of the Sugarloaf joint venture within the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate field, that production tubing has been successfully installed in Kennedy - 1H and the well has been flowed and placed back on well test. The reservoir stimulation program on the Kennedy-1H well commenced on 14 May, 2008 with the hydraulic fracture stimulation (“frac”) of an approximately 600 feet long zone at the end of the horizontal section of the well via four sets perforations. As at 6am Texas time on 25 May a total of 1,274 bbls of frac fluids and 257 bbls of condensate had been produced from the well which is continuing to produce small quantities of gas and condensate. With the production tubing now in place there are several options available to accelerate the recovery of frac fluids and the potential for additional fracture stimulation along the horizontal section of the well will also be considered. The condensate and gas recoveries from this zone are encouraging being the first conclusive test of this lower zone within the Sugarkane Austin Chalk. Further releases will be made as appropriate. Eureka has a 12.5% working interest in the Sugarloaf Joint Venture. Yours faithfully EUREKA ENERGY LIMITED Graham Dowland


----------



## Lucky_Country

Just so happy with the results so far in K1 its been a long wait but this zone is such a bonus.
ADI is now in a great position and has been extremly well handled by management.
Good luck too all holders !


----------



## Broadside

see the Excellence in Oil presentation released today.  Very positive for Sugarkane, next horizontal well in July and 2 more following this calendar year. 

Sugarkane "on threshold of being proven"...exciting times for patient shareholders.


----------



## Lucky_Country

What I liked about the presentation was that it was very upbeat yet conservative in line with ADI managements approach.
SL looks the goods but with some other very exciting projects going forward.
Let the good times begin.


----------



## tomcat

Tom Kelly a bit more optimistic on Kennedy and the significance to the play:

RNS Number : 2704V
Empyrean Energy PLC
27 May 2008

Empyrean Energy PLC 
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block B, Texas USA


* Kennedy Ã‚Å¾1 well flows gas and condensate from a new pay zone
* New pay zone is 120 feet thick versus 80 feet thick upper zone already producing
from two wells in Block A
* This test alone could more than double the potential recoverable reserves from the
project

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and USA
today announces the following:
Kennedy Ã‚Å¾1 Well 
Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Incorporated ("TCEI"), the operator of
Block B on the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate
field, that production tubing has been successfully installed in Kennedy Ã‚Å¾1 and the well
has been flowed and placed back on well test. The
reservoir stimulation program on the Kennedy Ã‚Å¾1 well commenced on 14 May, 2008 with the
hydraulic fracture stimulation ("frac") of an
approximate 600 ft zone at the end of the horizontal section of the well via four sets of
perforations.
As at 0600hrs (US CST) on the 25th May 2008 the well had produced a total of 1,274 bbls of
fracture fluids, 257 bbls of condensate and
is continuing to produce small quantities of gas and condensate. With the production tubing
now in place there are several options
available to accelerate the recovery of fracture fluid and the potential for additional
fracture stimulation along the horizontal section of
the well will also be considered. 
Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director Tom Kelly said "This is very encouraging
news for the project as a whole because we now
may have approximately 150% larger potential recoverable volumes when you add this new "middle
pay zone" to the "upper pay zone" that we had
already proven commercial from the testing of the Block A wells. Significantly, this test at
Kennedy was a relatively small fracture
stimulation conducted over a relatively small horizontal section of the well and we would
expect that much better flow rates can be achieved
using knowledge gained from these early wells. The completion technique used on this most
recent test should measurably improve the
production rates for the third potential pay zone, a lower zone some 50 feet thick, which was
initially tested by the Sugarloaf-1 vertical
well." 
Further releases will be made as appropriate.
The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the Technical
Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.
For further information:


----------



## Agentm

"Significantly, this test at Kennedy was a relatively small fracture stimulation conducted over a relatively small horizontal section of the well and we would expect that much better flow rates can be achieved using knowledge gained from these early wells. The completion technique used on this most recent test should measurably improve the production rates for the third potential pay zone, a lower zone some 50 feet thick, which was initially tested by the Sugarloaf-1 vertical well." 


so a mini frac on a couple of perforations.. and its this test is delivering them the confidence that zone 3 is a vaible zone utilizing mini fracs..

it shows signs that the high matrix of these chalks is seperating this play from all other traditional chalks fields like giddings and pearsall.. 

promising indeed that eme believe the potential reserves can be doubled.


----------



## tomcat

WOW - EME will be cooking tonight, good news for the play!!

 Empyrean Energy PLC 
    ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
    Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
    *     Spectacular condensate and gas flows following a very limited fracture stimulation
of the TCEI JV Block A-1 well. 
    *     Well flowing at an average rate of over 950 barrels of condensate with an average
rate of over 2.5 million cubic feet of gas being
an equivalent of around 12 million cubic feet equivalent gas per day.
    *     Rate is over 6 times the pre-stimulation rate.
    Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and production assets in Germany
and USA today announces the following initial
test results from its TCEI JV Block A-1well on Block A at the Sugarloaf Project in Texas:
    Fracture stimulation operations at the TCEI JV Block A-1 well commenced over the weekend
using a small acid frac in 5 sets of
perforations over approximately 900 feet of the horizontal section of the well. As of the
latest report the well was flowing on 14/64" choke
at approximately 2.5 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas per day) with approximately 950 bcpd
(barrels of condensate per day) and nil bwpd
(barrels of water per day) with a FTP ("Flow Tubing Pressure") of around 4000 psi. 
    On the present day prices for condensate and gas whilst converting the condensate to a gas
equivalent, recent recorded equivalent gas
flow rates approximate (using a 10:1 conversion) 12 mmcfepd (million cubic feet gas equivalent
per day). The well flow rates had increased
incrementally in the 24 hours to the last report as the well cleaned up and recovered frac
fluids.
    Commenting today, Empyrean Director - Tom Kelly said "These flow rates are spectacular
from an acid frac of only 900 feet of horizontal
with only 5 sets of perforations. To be getting such a great condensate flow is also very
pleasing given where the oil price is right now.
Our shareholders have been patient and it is pleasing to see this being rewarded as the
completion methods learnt early on in the project
are being successfully implemented by the operator."
    Further announcements will be made as significant developments occur.
    The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the Technical
Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist.


----------



## Lucky_Country

News coming thick and fat on the SK area.
Lets see how it affects ADI tommorow must be a positive.
Seriously looking forward to the next 6 months with ADI drilling campaign.


----------



## sam76

Well you know how people say a picture is worth a thousand words?

Well this one may say it all



*EME up 22% already according to bloomberg*

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=EME:LN


----------



## fflintoff

*Empyrean pumps up Sugarloaf flow*

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article155784.ece

Empyrean pumps up Sugarloaf flow



By Upstream staff 
AIM-listed Empyrean Energy said fracture stimulation on the TCEI JV Block A-1 well on the Sugarloaf prospect in Texas has boosted flow rates six-fold. 
In April the company had reported that the well was flowing at about 65, 000 cubic feet of gas per day, 130 barrels of condensate per day and 45 barrels of water per day. 
The well I snow reported to have average flow rates of 2.5 MMcfd and 950 bpd of condensate. 
“These flow rates are spectacular from an acid frac of only 900 feet of horizontal with only five sets of perforations. To be getting such a great condensate flow is also very pleasing given where the oil price is right now,” said Empyrean boss Tom Kelly in a statement. 

28 May 2008 09:01 GMT  | last updated: 28 May 2008 09:11 GMT


----------



## Agentm

time to update the meridian slide..

the region is begining to look very very "encouraging" 

not changing my view on it one bit myself, continue to hold and accumulate


----------



## Lucky_Country

Looking forward too some drilling results over the next 6 months and seeing ADI with some revenue flow !
Would also like to see ADIs plans for the next 2 zones but obviously Z1 is the main priority.
Stil have futher testing of K1 and NT has just gone missing whats going on there ?


----------



## prawn_86

After about 18months of all hype and no action, its good to see that ADIs managment actually can do something aside from talk.

Well done to those who kept the faith, and even more congrats to those who bought under 30c.

Im still watching with interest and the amount of news flow sounds promising now they are actually starting to put runs on the board


----------



## Lucky_Country

prawn_86 said:


> After about 18months of all hype and no action, its good to see that ADIs managment actually can do something aside from talk.
> 
> Well done to those who kept the faith, and even more congrats to those who bought under 30c.
> 
> Im still watching with interest and the amount of news flow sounds promising now they are actually starting to put runs on the board




Wouldnt exactly say ADI management have done nothing over the last 2 years !
Fighting court case with NT, securing leases for Sugarkane, Indonesia, Yemen, Fought hard for Thailand, Fracing and drilling plan for Sugarloaf.
Been real busy imo and about to be rewarded for our patience !


----------



## Broadside

prawn_86 said:


> After about 18months of all hype and no action, its good to see that ADIs managment actually can do something aside from talk.
> 
> Well done to those who kept the faith, and even more congrats to those who bought under 30c.
> 
> Im still watching with interest and the amount of news flow sounds promising now they are actually starting to put runs on the board




It was actually quite easy to keep the faith because throughout, despite lack of news flow from the JVPs themselves and considerable scepticism from some posters, AgentM was keeping the fire burning.  He is an asset to this forum.


----------



## Agentm

the beauty of adi right now is that there is a abundance of anecdotal evidence to be conclusive that the zone 1 chalks are more than commercial.
My own conclusions are that all three zones are more than capable of commercial flow.

ADI are not in a position to announce any official figures and claim any value in zone 1 until they get flow in zone 1.. so 3 miles away the zone is going gangbusters and adi are unable to claim their zone is commercial.. you have to see the value there!!

ADI are in a position to achieve success in zone 2 which would increase their reserve potential by 125%

ADI could still be seen as great value as they are trading at 25% to thier risked NVP,  which is $1.74

right now today the adi share has some ability to actually gain significant value, its still way undervalued imho.. very very good value for a high risk high reward outcome, with a safety buffer of wisteria, indonesia and yemen to keep some underlying value in the investment..


----------



## nioka

Has anyone noticed that AUT is racing ahead of ADI, especially today, with good volume as well for AUT. Makes it a good proposition for those wanting to trade AUT for ADI. I wanted to go the other way this time. Either one seems good buying considering the news.


----------



## Agentm

nioka

overseas buyers are hitting aut with massive orders, they have 1.5 million shares this morning first up, so its not aussie investors coming after them its from overseas right now.. things are starting to hot up i think..

cheers


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> nioka
> 
> overseas buyers are hitting aut with massive orders, they have 1.5 million shares this morning first up, so its not aussie investors coming after them its from overseas right now.. things are starting to hot up i think..
> 
> cheers



 Let's hope someone tells them about ADI. AUT does have the advantage of better acerage in the area although according to my calculations the acreage per share is similar and ADI do have better backup projects. Six of one and half a dozen or the other. I only trade across when I end up with more shares.


----------



## Lucky_Country

I would like to see someone try to buy 2.5 million shares in ADI on the market would send the  price through the roof !
Just a matter of time before ADI has a good sustained run.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well I thought we may have got some kind of update from K1 by now.
All very quite even AgentM has burnt out understandable I must admit.
Looking forward to the drilling program to start that should be a great source of constant news flow.


----------



## Agentm

BLOCK B




Sugarloaf-1 Well (Empyrean Interest 6%)




Remedial cementation was required prior to the fraccing operations of the lower part of the gas-bearing chalk interval in which there are at least three separate intervals of enhanced porosity development. Testing operations began on 11 September 2007.




The first fracc attempt was unsuccessful due to premature screen out of the proppant with only 6% entering the formation; all of which required redesigning a second fracc attempt which was executed on 19 October 2007.




Despite initial gas flows of 387mcfgpd with associated condensate, the flow rate declined. Following the completion of swabbing operations and the setting of production tubing, the well was shut in until results from wells already being drilled and tested in Block A could be used to modify the continued testing programme of the remaining porous zones of the Austin Chalk. 




Kennedy-1H Well (Empyrean Interest 6% - 12%)




This well was originally called Sugarloaf-2 and is the second well to be spudded in the 16 well deal mentioned above. It is located 1.6 km from Sugarloaf-1 well. The zone targeted in the horizontal section of approximately 5,000 ft of Austin Chalk reservoir is believed to correlate with the producing section in the Sugarkane Field discovery well located 8 km to the west of Kennedy-1H well.




Backround gas readings increased significantly on entering the Austin Chalk. 




The rig was released on 8 December 2007 following the emplacement of a 4  ½" liner in the horizontal part of the well. On 15 February 2008 it was announced that fraccing and testing procedures were necessarily dependent on the results of the operations in the adjacent Block A, and it was not until 16 April 2008 that Empyrean received notification of the details of the final completion programme. 




The fraccing operation was carried out on 14 May 2008. A total of 95,000 lbs of sand and 5182 barrels of fluid were injected under pressure into four sets of perforations over an approximate 600ft horizontal interval. Initial flow results of gas condensate and fracc fluid recovery were announced on 25 May 2008, and since then the well has been slowly expelling the fracc fluids prior to the measuring of full gas condensate flow.




The result is particularly relevant to the overall prospectivity of the area as it has shown that the so-called "middle pay zone" contains gas condensate and could therefore add 150% to the recoverable reserves attributed to the "upper pay zone".




As of 29 May 2008 the plan was to run pressure gauges while the well was continuing to flow, then shut in the well for a prolonged pressure build up. There still remained approximately 4,120 barrels of fracc fluid to recover.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Looking forward to an additional 150% increase in reserves and theres still Z3 that has not been touched yet.
Its been  along wait and has tested the patience but there is light at the end of the tunnel.


----------



## maverick11

Thanks mate, it is worrying that they have only recovered a small portion of the frac fluid


----------



## Agentm

Baker 2 is the next well for EME and Conocophillips will no doubt be keen to actually fully complete the well this time..

the TCEI guys will no doubt put through their permit also as they are also drilling in the very near future..   both these wells will be deisgned to be completed with slotted liner and open hole completion according to recent releases..

I have no doubt that baker 1 would have possibly had formation damage when you consider all they had to do to it..  so the next well will be targeting the same fractured regions again.. and this time they can design the drill to minimize any potential damage..

interesting days ahead..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Cant come quick enough I must admit Im getting a bit restless with this SugarKane project.
There has been alot of talk and speculation but no results throw in NT and I sometimes wonder when we will get any results form any wells.
Good to see the directors taking up their option and have been impressed with their proffesionalism in the whole saga as Im sure they are keen as all of us to get things moving.
6 months time one would hope we will all be smiling.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well record Oil Prices and ADI and its jvp getting ready to do a great drilling campaign to confirm their reserves.
Timing may become impecable and maybe that was their stratergy from day one.Lets just hope we reap the rewards of the oil price gains and just get great results and many wells drilled.


----------



## Agentm

looking forward

Early july 2008  new wildcat well in karnes county sugarkane target.

late July 2008  wisteria offshore timor..

then i believe the bidding rounds for indonesia are next


----------



## blues

Hi Agentm,

It is coming into exciting times for all holders with the testing of Kennedy still continuing, drilling in Texas to begin soon, drilling in the Timor Sea etc. Lots on.
Have you heard of a rough spud date for drilling in the US?

Cheers


----------



## Lucky_Country

Lets get Sugarkane up and running and become a producer.
Cashflow would be a main priority and ould fund alot of great projects ADI have and are going for.


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> Hi Agentm,
> 
> It is coming into exciting times for all holders with the testing of Kennedy still continuing, drilling in Texas to begin soon, drilling in the Timor Sea etc. Lots on.
> Have you heard of a rough spud date for drilling in the US?
> 
> Cheers




last conversation i had said early july was still very real target... my view is that is still the case, permits should be going through soon.

imho yemen has been totally overlooked and not at all understood.. oilsearch kept block 3 and 7, and they are deadly serious about a region  in the north west corner of  block 3 trending up into the south west corner of block 7 (our block)  they are about to do a 3d there..

i recommend this presentation is worth looking at

http://www.oilsearch.com/resource/2007 Investor Field Trip - MENA.pdf


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well  seems like an eternity since we had any news and as a result the share price is suffering.
K1 well where are the results surely the jvp have had enough time to let the pressure build up.
Looking forward to the start of a new FY and a better news "flow" excuse the pun.


----------



## nioka

At least we have some positive news as far as the SP went today. Someone must know something that I don't know. Up 16%+ for the day.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well its got to be close to hearing something from K1
Combined with a share price that looks good value for money and the start of a drilling campaign in July seems to show a few have an interest in ADI.
It was over $1 some time ago on the drilling of Sugarloaf and oil and gas were far cheaper then alot havent forgotten that.


----------



## Agentm

this is the eme questions answered from the other day, i took out the eagle and glantal stuff as adi is not involved in it, and left in the eme project with conocophillips, and our jvp stuff

Empyrean Energy: your questions answered
ONLINE Q&A: Empyrean Energy director Tom Kelly answers IC readers' questions on prospects, funding, drilling programmes and more
18 June 2008

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...a/Empyrean-Energy-your-questions-answered.jsp


Created: 
18 June 2008 
Written by: 
Jonathan Eley 

Empyrean Energy is on a roll. Shares in the Aim-quoted oil and gas exploration company have almost tripled over the past month, following a gas and condensate discovery in Texas, and the company has just raised £4.5m via a placing. Here, executive director Tom Kelly answers questions submitted by Investors Chronicle readers, ahead of the company's annual meeting in London next week.
Advertising


Any information on plans for fund-raising to complete drilling at Sugarloaf/Sugarkane? 

Empyrean has just completed a placement to UK and European institutions and other investors, raising £4.48 million before expenses [this was completed between submission of questions and receipt of answers - Ed] This raising will hold Empyrean in a strong position as we continue to appraise and develop the exciting Sugarloaf Project within the Sugarkane Field Gas/Condensate discovery area.

I've read that flow rates decline very quickly in these onshore wells. How representative are these test numbers of what we're going to see if Sugarloaf gets to production? 

We need more test data before we are able to provide longer term representative numbers for the flow rates. The initial flow rates are often greater than the longer term stabilised rates. We will also get a variation in flow rates from well to well, depending on the natural fracture swarms that the horizontal wells are able to intercept. Where the wells intercept multiple swarms, we are likely to see spectacular initial flow rates with good permeability that may not require fracture stimulation. *Where we do not intercept these fracture swarms*, *we have proven with the TCEI JV Block A-1 (KUNDE 3) well that successful fracture stimulation can achieve great results. The results to date indicate good pressures and long reservoir production life.* (WTF????)


What's the outlook for US gas prices? Are they directly linked to the soaring oil price? 

Although it is not our job to predict energy prices, the current oil and gas price regime in the US is obviously strong. The important thing to note with Empyrean is that at both our production assets (Margarita and Sugarloaf) we have production from both gas and oil. *Especially at Sugarloaf where the condensate fetches a price directly linked to the oil price - and we have a terrific condensate to gas ratio that provides a greater value from the condensate than the gas production.* To conclude, we have direct exposure to the soaring oil price through oil production at one of the Margarita wells and condensate production which makes up the bulk of the Sugarloaf production in terms of value.


The share price has been very volatile, and despite the recent gains, it's still well off previous highs. How confident are you that we are ending 'famine' and entering 'feast'? 

Empyrean is now part of a major discovery in onshore USA and the early results from this project should give everyone confidence. This is the second project that Empyrean has brought into production in just under three years since floating on Aim. Some projects take more than 10 years from conception before a first well is drilled. Empyrean has a tight committed team dedicated to continuing the momentum that exploration success brings. *At Sugarloaf Block B alone there is the possibility of at least another 34 wells to be drilled to develop the acreage.* If these wells are brought successfully into production with anything like the initial flow rates from the first Block A-1 (KUNDE 3)  and A-3 (BAKER 1)  wells then it will likely be a worthy "feast". If we have additional exploration success from our other projects then it has the possibility of being described more as a "smorgasbord". Empyrean is in the strongest position it has ever been in during its short history.

With your plans to develop more oil/gas wells on the Sugarloaf complex in Texas USA, can you explain how you intend to finance this development programme and highlight in what time frame you intend to start and finish this? 

The recent fundraising puts Empyrean in a strong position as we continue to appraise and develop the exciting Sugarloaf Project within the Sugarkane Field Gas/Condensate discovery area. In terms of development timeframes, we would expect that there will be a number of wells drilled on both Block A and B before the end of this calendar year. I would say a minimum of two wells and a maximum of six wells likely before year's end. As development wells are brought into production successfully it is natural for the development schedule to speed up. *These are our best estimates right now *and we will obviously notify the market as the operators confirm the development schedule and the timing of wells.

Is it intended to test Zone 2 at SL/SK in parallel namely Kennedy at Block B & Kunde #2 at Block A. If so, has the testing started at Kunde 2 yet ? 

Blocks A and B each have different operators. The TCEI JV Block A-2 (KUNDE 2) well is likely to test the "middle" pay zone but has not commenced testing yet as it is being used to monitor the fracture stimulation of the TCEI JV Block A-1 (KUNDE 3) well. Kennedy testing has commenced.

When you expect to be able to issue estimated production numbers and reserves etc for the Sugarkne condensate fields? 

There is already an estimate of recoverable production to Empyrean based on our net acreage position in Block B and the additional wells in Block A. That estimate is 32.5 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent, and relates to the uppermost pay zone only - i.e. the zone that the TCEI JV Block A-1  (KUNDE 3) and A-3 (BAKER 1) wells are producing from. If we get good flow rates from a second or third zone, then that estimate will be revised.

When do you plan to name the major partner in Block A with TCEI ? 

We are not able to comment on the identity of the block A operator at the present time due to confidentiality agreements (CONOCO PHILLIPS  )




just finding this statement completely perplexing myself..  if i read it right, then Tom kelly is saying the fractures done on Kunde 3 were not in a part of the well that was intsecting naturally fractured chalks, or "fracature swarms" as he calls them..  are we to assume the 12mmcfpde is coming from the high matrix chalks with artificial fractures?????????????  


*Where we do not intercept these fracture swarms, we have proven with the TCEI JV Block A-1 (KUNDE 3) well that successful fracture stimulation can achieve great results. The results to date indicate good pressures and long reservoir production life. *


----------



## sam76

Nice run down for the Layman, Agent M

ADI has seen some support over the last couple of days. Hopefully it's related to K1


----------



## Agentm

i think the new permit,  KOOPMANN A274 - Well # 1 that conoco are doing next in dewitt says something more about how propective they see this region!!

as for the statement by Tom Kelly that kunde 3 is not producing from fracture swarms and is producing from the perforating and fracturing of the well mechanically is staggering...........


----------



## EEE

So are we to say that the best is yet to come from Kunde 3? 

Thats my only question but need some more filler to make the 100 character min


----------



## Agentm

EEE said:


> So are we to say that the best is yet to come from Kunde 3?
> 
> Thats my only question but need some more filler to make the 100 character min




we know kunde 3 hit a sreies of fracture clusters, but it appears from what tom is saying that COP have fractured regions that are not fracture clusters.. just the rock matrix...  so its fair to say if the rocks are doing 12mmcfpde  then what will the staggering flow rates be if they open up the fracture clusters?? 

if we believe tom kelly is not yanking our chain, then if i read his answers right then kunde 3 has got some amazing flow rates to come if they open up the other zones...


----------



## Agentm

next well is KOWALIK 1

its a horizontal into the SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS)

maybe 3 miles north of our wells now.. 

spud is scheduled for  early july


----------



## Lucky_Country

Am looking forward to seeing confirmation of the spud of our next well in the Sugarkane.
Also very keen to hear how K1 is going ?


----------



## Lucky_Country

4 new wells first to spud mid July
K1 40 barrels a day with futher frac stimulation to come.
This is sounding real positive even worth the wait !
Looking forward to xmas and we should really now alot more by then.


----------



## Agentm

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide an update on operations within the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”).

Kowalik -1H

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator of the Sugarloaf AMI, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”) that the next well will be called Kowalik -1H. The well will spud as soon as the rig completes operations on another well and is mobilised to site, possibly by mid July. The well is engineered to take advantage of the knowledge gained from the work carried out to date within the area and an analogous offset field in the region.
It will target the upper pay interval that is understood to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in adjacent acreage. The well is planned to have a 6,000ft horizontal section. The Joint Venture is working towards this being the first in a continuous sequence of 4 wells and it is expected that further announcements will be made to this effect in due course.


Kennedy -1H

Adelphi has also been advised that preparations are underway to further fracture stimulate the deepest 600 feet of the horizontal section of the Kennedy -1H well. The fracture operations previously reported by Adelphi in May, 2008 have been partially successful. Although stable production of minor gas volumes and 40 barrels per day of condensate were achieved, it is believed that the well would benefit from a larger fracture stimulation with a modified design. 

As previously reported, the Kennedy -1H well is believed to be located in the middle interval of the reservoir which has not previously been fully tested. Adelphi is encouraged by the demonstrable productivity and looks forward to the results of the second stimulation. Subject to equipment availability, TCEI has advised that this work will take place within the next 14 days.


----------



## Agentm

One mile is 5280 feet,  

this kowalik will be 6000 feet, so i hope i got the scale fairly accurate..


----------



## tarzanhey

Empyrean Energy PLC 
    ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
    Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
    *     New horizontal well planned for Block A - the TCEI Block A-4 well. 
    Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and production assets in Germany
and USA today announces the following on Block
A at the Sugarloaf Project in Texas:

    TCEI Block A-4 Well
    Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") has advised that the operator of Block A is preparing for
a new horizontal well to be drilled following
the success of both the TCEI Block A-1 and A-3 wells. The new well is planned to be completed
horizontally into the upper zone that has
proved productive in the TCEI Block A-1 and A-3 wells.
    The well is expected to commence as soon as the rig is able to finish drilling and
mobilize from the well it is currently being used by
the Block A operator to drill.
    Empyrean will have a 7.5% working interest in this well.
    A further announcement will be made when the well spuds.
    The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the Technical
Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank
Brophy BSc (Hons) who has over 40 years experience as a petroleum g


----------



## Broadside

156 pages!  hopefully we'll see some good action by about page 165 

I think next FY is the one for the patient.


----------



## Lucky_Country

156 pages 156 wells at Sugarloaf maybe 
Personally I feel its now showtime and let the games begin.
Good luck to all holders.


----------



## Agentm

adi has had a great day on the back of the broker report that is obviously being taken very very seriously by peter strachans clients.   this is the first broker report for nearly two years!!

peter basically states things like 

"StockAnalysis has little doubt that this play will work"  

and rates the POS (probability of success) at 45% in the development wells on the play..

there is much quality in the report not only on the sugarkane, but also on wisteria.. he believes success at the deeper Plover target would more than underpin Adelphi’s current market capitalisation, while the shallower pinch-out prospect holds upside of up to and over $2.50 per share

i think the report has had a great influence on the buying today, and anyone wanting to dump out and get a tax advantage has had ample opportunity today..  

lots of news to come in the near term with the kennedy well being fraced to bring up production.. and the  kowalik horizontal about to spud in the next weeks..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Certainly would not want to miss out on the next 6 months with ADI.
EKA also got a lift from the report and about time all long term holders got rewarded for the long wait.
Id rather be in than  out !


----------



## Agentm

the next few weeks are the most interesting ones..

TCEI is now on an agenda to do an aggressive frac in zone 2, the jvp's prime objective right now is to have good steady flow of condensate and gas from the rock purely on the mechanics of an artificial frac, the high matrix porosity and permiabilty of these chalks that are laden with 58 gravity (60 is as good as gets) condensate will be nothing short of spectacular.. it will mean any well that hits natural frctures will have easily 7 - 15 years life as the wells can be fraced further to access all the reserves in the rock matrix..  70% is a figure i have seen..  any well not hitting fractures will be in a very good position and as with kennedy, they are getting the science right to get commercial flow in any case with artificial fractures..

as kennedy is on a program for immediate frac on the back 600 feet of well, the zone 2 news look remarkably near..  that will sure get the sp to fly!

good luck to all holders  all imho and dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

ADI already looks to be a $1 per share company on prospects and oil price alone.
Although nothing has been officially confirmed this cannot be far away.
To think that the company a normally conservative one at that has flagged 4 new wells say to me thay are extremley confident.
Not many sellers


----------



## nioka

ADI looks as though it may finally throw away the groundhog day influence. The news that more wells are planned for sugarloaf and the prospects of some production is promising. What ADI needs is income to stop the bleeding of it's cash balance. ADI and AUT need a cash flow from these wells more than the other partners in the venture. New wells can't be drilled fast enough as far as I'm concerned. It has been a long slow ride so far that has tired a lot of holders and there has been a lot of times I have been close to giving up.Time to startand stop


----------



## Agentm

TCEI could have run with 50 bopd with kennedy but the jvp has gone with a major frac on only the back 600 feet, not the entire well!!!

you have to realise that they dont spend 1 mill on a frac, and not on just 600 feet unless they are after some major return for their investment..

the jvp will be getting significant improvements in the flow rates on kennedy, the the revenue will immediately begin..  adi can be a producer in a very very short period of time..!!

the kennedy frac is any day..

all imho and dyor


----------



## Agentm

copy of the recent report put out by stockanalysis

in view of the buying that occurred on thursday and friday after the release, its fair to assume the clients of this firm liked the story..


----------



## Lucky_Country

A great indepth report using very conservative figures.
The market must be waiting for some confirmation on flow testing before a big leg up imo.
Tightly held will be a big jump if K1 proves to be a producer and with more drilling to come should be a flow of good consistant news.


----------



## Hatchy

And good consistent news is what we want. Been in since 80cps. 

I just love it how they've waited to see what their buddy next door has done, and is copying them - kind of like cheating on a math test isn't it?


----------



## Agentm

hey hatchy

not quite cheating 

TCEI has an interest in the Conocophillips wells, so its very clear that some info from lessons learned can be shared and benifit out JVP.

The way i am hearing it, each frac has taught our JVP a lot, even the light kennedy frac has been a success and was analysed, it produced a steady flow of 40 bopd, with four sets of perfs and a light water frac..  no mention of any gas thus far, only condensate is mentioned in the reports, cant hear me complaining about that.. oil wells are very very attractive to me..  EME are saying 14 - 30 years lately in the longevity stakes...!!!!

IMHO the primary objective is to see if this latest redesigned frac, which involves more perfs and a heavier proppant and an very large aggressive frac,  will focus on the same 600 feet already proven to be flowing hydrocarbons..  that design is to make the well commercial and flow off just the matrix and artificial fractures..  then we have the rest of the well to look forward to being fraced later,,


brokers are saying to their clients they believe in this play... 

We have 3 wells all happening at once, one well that prodiuces hydrocarbons is being worked up to get way way more production, and theres Kowalik and wisteria in a matter of weeks..  within 60 days all the news on all the wells will be known and there will be another well in karnes county...  

first news on the prospectivity of zone 2 is a matter of days away.. success on zone 2 will also have a dramatic impact on adi, it would make it a producer, and prove the play is commercial without natural fractures!!!


very exciting few days to come imho...  all imho and dyor


----------



## Gspot

Hey AgentM,
Still thinking of that Full moon party at Koi Samui. It's a good thing they are every month.
Good luck to us patient lot.


----------



## Agentm

Gspot said:


> Hey AgentM,
> Still thinking of that Full moon party at Koi Samui. It's a good thing they are every month.
> Good luck to us patient lot.




i'm keen to still do it!!


lets hope after this frac that this kennedy well just keeps producing massive amounts of condensate and minor gas just like it has been thus far, and we can buy the island!


----------



## solomon

Agentm thanks for sharing your tireless research and commitment to ADI, I've decided to jump on board what seems to have been the stock equivalent of the Hotel California - "you can check out anytime but you just can't leave" (it is one long thread)

Anyway thanks Agentm.

Could anyone share a timetable of when we can expect some news?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Soon.
Testing was supposed to be happening within 14 days of the statement on 23/6/08.
Spudding of Wisteria and the next wells to be drilled in Texas are due this month.
News flow should become more frequent from now on.
.


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> Agentm thanks for sharing your tireless research and commitment to ADI, I've decided to jump on board what seems to have been the stock equivalent of the Hotel California - "you can check out anytime but you just can't leave" (it is one long thread)
> 
> Anyway thanks Agentm.
> 
> Could anyone share a timetable of when we can expect some news?




sorry solomon, i didnt even check this thread till now..

monday/tuesday will definately have an announcement.. imho all scheduled activity in texas went according to plan.. so the monday coming is definately my pick for next announcement..  but thats all imho and dyor..

"Relax," said the night man, 
"We are programmed to receive".


----------



## solomon

Today's action so far makes it look like I've jumped on board just in time - here's hoping that my take on the research meets with reality.


----------



## Agentm

when conoco stop building pipelines and infrastructure, when they stop drilling and putting in permits, then is my time to exit..  and that has never happened..  there is way too much flow coming out of wells that are not even optimally designed to allow flow from the chalks!  

who ever heard of a well with cemented casing flowing straight condensate from the austin chalks?

this latest kennedy frac is totally about getting larger flow rates, they have already proved the formation flows and is hydrocarbon saturated!!


----------



## buzzbuzz100

ADVFN ......... problem is acknowledged by www.advfn.com
Quote:-
ADVFN is currently unavailable due to a general power failure at our hosting facility. 
July 4th 2008 21:10: Our hosting providers are not providing an ETA for power restoration, but our best estimate at this point is at least 6 hours. They have tested one set of power supply systems in isolation and have commenced work on the the second set. When both sets have been tested they will gradually start supplying power to the data center. 

When power is restored our engineers will then commence bringing services on-line. 

We apologise for any inconvenience this has caused.


----------



## KillerWolf

cheers for that Buzz, was wondering what happened. it's still gone to me :-/

i was beginning to think an overload of shte by certain parties had crashed the boards :-D


----------



## tarzanhey

buzzbuzz100 said:


> ADVFN ......... problem is acknowledged by www.advfn.com
> Quote:-
> ADVFN is currently unavailable due to a general power failure at our hosting facility.
> July 4th 2008 21:10: Our hosting providers are not providing an ETA for power restoration, but our best estimate at this point is at least 6 hours. They have tested one set of power supply systems in isolation and have commenced work on the the second set. When both sets have been tested they will gradually start supplying power to the data center.
> 
> When power is restored our engineers will then commence bringing services on-line.
> 
> We apologise for any inconvenience this has caused.





Thanks for that Buzz - seemed a bit of a mystery with no answer to emails to clem@advfn I was starting to wonder.


Back To Kennedy - I would love to be a fly on the wall (or rig) over there today and know what is happening.

good luck to all jvp holders.


----------



## majorca

So I take it there will be an announcement soon? Anyone know anything?
What is the go with this hundred character thing? Is it to force a conversation?
My wife needs one of these.


----------



## barney

majorca said:


> What is the go with this hundred character thing? Is it to force a conversation?
> My wife needs one of these.




LOL ..... Nice first post Majorca, just don't let your wife see it ..

You could be a candidate for this ... :horse:

or this .... :whip .............. then again some people like it that way !!

Welcome to ASF and ADI .... An interesting choice of threads for your first post ... Hope you hold a few.


----------



## majorca

Hey Barney,Actually my wife and I do hold , she actually bought the first parcel a bit over a year ago. It may yet be a stroke of brilliance, we are only about 20% down with a possibility of a huge upside. Though at the moment given the current economy 20% loss can be a good result? I have worked hard to loose more so at least we are doing it easy at present! And you are right she could kick my **** in a heart beat, I live in the constant fear of being embarrassed in front of my mates!


----------



## Agentm

KENNEDY -1H

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude (“TCEI”) that the second stage of fracture stimulation took place on Thursday 3rd July. In preparation for the
stimulation, an additional three sets of perforations, each 3 ft long, were placed in between those used for the first stimulation in the bottom 600 ft of the well.

The fracture operation successfully placed approximately 100,000 lbs of high strength proppant into the fractures before high pumping pressures prevented the full
program being completed, this represents 90% of the planned fluids and 50% of the planned proppant.

Flow back has recovered about 1,200 barrels of the 6,540 barrels of fluids pumped during fracture operations. Trace amounts of gas and condensate were also recovered towards the end of this period.

Operations are now in progress to clean out any fracture proppant that was left in the well bore as a result of the early termination of fracture operations. After that, flow-back and testing operations will resume. Further announcements will be made as the results become available.

As previously reported, the Kennedy -1H is believed to be located in the middle interval of the chalk reservoir, which has not previously been fully tested. *Adelphi remains encouraged by the demonstrable productivity from the first stimulation and looks forward to the results of the current stimulation of the same section of the well*. 

Adelphi has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.


that little line there is exactly what i would have expected.. chris is extremely conservative, and will not release anything unless its definitive.. this announcement is the best news i have had all week..


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> KENNEDY -1H
> 
> this announcement is the best news i have had all week..




 It looks like the market will not settle for less than an announcement of an out of control gusher before giving the SP a boost. The last few days have not been too good for either ADI or AUT. I had been hoping that one would at least travel differently to the other. Where to for now? Will we ever get away from the groundhog?


----------



## solomon

I'm about to ask for a bit of spoon feeding as I don't fully understand the operational aspects of drilling a well - so 'no worries' if everyone ignores it - what are the implications of the 'high pumping pressure'?

Is this a good thing? Does it mean that they pushed as much proppant down there as they could and no more would go? And if so are there any implications of this.


----------



## Agentm

best i understand is this..

the well casing is rated to a certain pressure, you may have say 8000 psi on the pumper, and trying to get more in you need to up the rate to 12000 psi, but your casing may be rated to burst at 10000 psi, so on most sites you go to the max and then stay there, you cant go higher or risk bursting the pipe..

as for the screenout, there was 50% of the proppant in the formation, then the rest is in the pipe, jammed in there, and there is one big mess down there right now, this happened at kunde 3, they thought the well was dead, then when they cleaned it out, the well came on at  about 2.5 mill,, the condesate there was pretty high  950 bopd.. 4000 psi and they had 4 sets of perfs on 900 feet of well..

i think some real clever buying is happening right now.. and i hope the sp keeps on dropping, i know a few who are buying right now.. 

you asked what the implications are for all this..

i see a few potential ones, 

1. they clean up the well as they announced, and report the new anticipated flow rates and pressures..

2. they announce the condensate field officially.. have to re rate the value of adi surely??

3. the ones buying now have a huge smile on their faces! and the ones holding are extremely happy..

4. the jvp keep using words like "we are pleased to announce" and "encouraged" and "looks forward" for results of operations, and the market doesnt get it.. that implication remains very obvious to me!! great value in the sp..

5. everything they learn, even the partial screenout of this frac, is invaluable to all operations in the futrure..


lets see if the well cleans up and i am PLEASED to say i LOOK FORWARD to their ENCOURAGING reports in the near future..

all imho and dyor


----------



## solomon

Thanks AgentM - I think I get it. It does sound promising. If they can't pump anymore propant down then something must be stopping it - and seeing as there was already 40bpd coming out of the well - it could be a whole lotta oil!

----
this isn't financial advice just my opinion


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> Thanks AgentM - I think I get it. It does sound promising. If they can't pump anymore propant down then something must be stopping it - and seeing as there was already 40bpd coming out of the well - it could be a whole lotta oil!
> 
> ----
> this isn't financial advice just my opinion




solomon, your getting it i see!

welcome to club sugarlaof!!  and i hope the others in the club have got it also, i mean you cant tell me that a formation that is delivering minor gas, and 40 bopd is a gas formation, it has to be something else  imho


----------



## barney

majorca said:


> Hey Barney,Actually my wife and I do hold , she actually bought the first parcel a bit over a year ago. It may yet be a stroke of brilliance, we are only about 20% down with a possibility of a huge upside. Though at the moment given the current economy 20% loss can be a good result? I have worked hard to loose more so at least we are doing it easy at present! And you are right she could kick my **** in a heart beat, I live in the constant fear of being embarrassed in front of my mates!




Only 20% down .... I'm still 40%   ........... Good luck to you and your wife

PS. I know a good boxing trainer if you need help with that wife of yours ..... I don't like bullies esok:  (I bet she's really a good sort though) 



nioka said:


> It looks like the market will not settle for less than an announcement of an out of control gusher before giving the SP a boost. The last few days have not been too good for either ADI or AUT. I had been hoping that one would at least travel differently to the other. Where to for now? Will we ever get away from the groundhog?




Agree Nioka,  I think the market may have misinterpreted the word "traces" re the gas and oil ........... Once the well is cleared of frac fluid, the picture will be a lot clearer ..........

PS. I'm off to feed my groundhog ... he's still hungry.:taz:


----------



## Agentm

worth a read from the uk bb..

i think when you see a person who is very experienced in the industry comment on a process that is not clarified in the asx announcement, it brings clarity and understandings that are very insightful and also takes the edge off the negitivity people have towards partial screenouts.. i see it as a 50% success rather than a 50% fail,  conoco have failed twice n their frac attempts in zone 1 at kunde 3, but still got flow by doing a well clean up and discovering the formation was flowing naturally, then followed an acid job that worked brilliantly on the well..  

imho TCEI is the only successful operator to frac a horizontal well into this very overpressurised rock and we are seeing signs of flow, and also traces of hydrocarbons, once the mess is cleaned up we will have a definitive result..



quattro44 - 10 Jul'08 - 09:54 - 32209 of 32309


The RNS is certainly not pointless to those that understand the oil business.

Solid chalk zones are notoriously difficult to frac, and there is a serious amount of knowledge to be learnt in this zone. When they say that they did not get all the proppant in due to high pressure, this would be due to the fracture propagation ending thus there would be nowhere for the proppant to go anymore thus the pumping pressure would gradually increase until it could not be allowed to go any higher. The amount that a zone can take under certain designs will vary, and something that needs to be learnt. The 'screening out' of the proppant is an entirely normal event in these circumstances, even if not entirely desirable. It would appear to me that they have done extremely well to get this amount of proppant away in such a zone, and they would always have an excess of proppant on site just in case the formation did take it all. They did in fact use most of the frac fluid, thus they have definitely managed to propagate the fractures, but at some stage, due possibly to the pressure increasing, they may have had to reduce the proppant concentration in order to keep things flowing. Thus it may be that they have learnt how to initiate the fractures, and get them a considerable distance from the perforations, but have not perfected the proppant concentration in order to ensure it is carried all the way to the furthermost voids.

They have used a synthetic proppant, almost certainly sintered bauxite, and the question is whether this was resin coated or not as to how long it will take them to extract the unused proppant from the well bore. This is because coated proppant sticks together under heat and pressure (whilst maintaining its permeability) and would be more difficult to extract from the well but is a normal practice, it just takes a little longer.
The well has already flowed back a significant amount of fluid, so this is clearly not a real problem. As the formation is so hard and the pressures high it is less likely that the proppant was coated as on pressure release the formation would more likely trap the proppant sufficiently to prevent it being blown out of the formation under production.

The fact that they have reported to the market at this juncture, and using the terminology they have, I would suggest means that they are extremely pleased at the result they got and are more than confident of very positive results. But that is just my opinion from my experience and I am a large holder here, so dyor etc etc.
q44


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## nioka

Another good day to move between ADI and AUT. There is always a lag in AUT catching up to a price increase of ADI as we have had today. I have made a couple of trades today and am now back 50/50 ADI and AUT. This has allowed me to get another 5% increase in my interest in sugarloaf at no cost and have a little more petty cash left over. As long as this one comes good in the end I find that I am enjoying groundhog day.


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## sam76

nioka said:


> Another good day to move between ADI and AUT. There is always a lag in AUT catching up to a price increase of ADI as we have had today. I have made a couple of trades today and am now back 50/50 ADI and AUT. This has allowed me to get another 5% increase in my interest in sugarloaf at no cost and have a little more petty cash left over. As long as this one comes good in the end I find that I am enjoying groundhog day.





Well done on increasing your exposure,



Are you including brokerage and CGT in that 5% Nioka?

many thanks,


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## nioka

sam76 said:


> Are you including brokerage and CGT in that 5% Nioka?
> ,



 Yes. I try and sell 20,000 but will trade with selling 10,000 min (shares that is) and invest the nett amount ( less some petty cash sometimes, usually to round off the number).It is not easy to trade larger numbers because of the low turnover. It is usually possible to do some trading most weeks. This can be done with a lot of dirrerent stocks. I am also trading the difference in MOS and MOSO, TEY and TEYO in the same way. I also trade within the group of Coal seam gas stocks, have just sold a few of my AOE and bought BUL as AOE has risen and BUL is being given away.

( on checking the BUL price has risen 11.36% since buying. I could probably now trade back to AOE for an increase in the number?)


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## Agentm

nioka said:


> Yes. I try and sell 20,000 but will trade with selling 10,000 min (shares that is) and invest the nett amount ( less some petty cash sometimes, usually to round off the number).It is not easy to trade larger numbers because of the low turnover. It is usually possible to do some trading most weeks. This can be done with a lot of dirrerent stocks. I am also trading the difference in MOS and MOSO, TEY and TEYO in the same way. I also trade within the group of Coal seam gas stocks, have just sold a few of my AOE and bought BUL as AOE has risen and BUL is being given away.




you need to put a blog up on this imho, the way you trade really interests me, your very clever on when you move in and out.. i  like your style and i think you could find a few would follow your moves..  have you ever gone into EKA in the shuffle?


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## nioka

Agentm said:


> you need to put a blog up on this imho, the way you trade really interests me, your very clever on when you move in and out.. i  like your style and i think you could find a few would follow your moves..  have you ever gone into EKA in the shuffle?




 Nothing really clever, it only needs a few watch lists and pick the changing relative values. I have not traded EKA as I found in the past they didn't give me enough advantage to get the in the first place because I preferred ADI or AUT to them. 
 This type of trading means you are never out of the market. On a falling market the CGT is not a problem, actually it is an advantage. You trade the one that has yet to fall for one that has fallen too far.


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## daeff

yeap agree nioka and I am following your plan.

I got set today on AUT cause I am not going to push up adi just yet....

more funds next week so will be watching which provides the best leverage as well...... EKA must also come on the radar although they are purely a SL play with nothign else....  

can feel it gettign closer now... chart looks ready to pop


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## Agentm

15 July 2008
Company Announcements Platform
ASX Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000

Via ASX Online

ADELPHI ENERGY LIMITED

Notice under Section 708AA

On 15 July 2008, Adelphi Energy Limited (Company)announced that it will be offering eligible shareholders the opportunity to acquire fully paid ordinary shares in the capital of the Company (Shares) via a non-renounceable rights issue on the basis of one Share for every six Shares held at the record date of 23 July 2008 at an issue price of $0.32 per Share (Rights Issue).

The maximum number of Shares which may be issued under the Rights Issue is estimated to be approximately 17,744,000 (assuming no existing options are exercised).

An Appendix 3B in relation to the Rights Issue is attached to this notice.

Notice under section 708AA of the Corporations Act
The Company hereby notifies that:

(a) the Company will offer the Shares for issue without disclosure to investors under Part 6D.2 of the Corporations Act 2001 (the Act);

(b) the Company is providing this notice under paragraph 2f) of section 708AA of the Act;

(c) as at 15 July 2008, the Company has complied with the provisions of Chapter 2M of the Act as they apply to the Company;

(d) as at 15 July 2008, the Company has complied with section 674 of the Act;

(e) as at 15 July 2008, there is no information:

(i) that has been excluded from a continuous disclosure notice in accordance with the ASX Listing Rules; and
(ii) that investors and their professional advisers would reasonably require for the purpose of making an informed assessment of: 
(A) the assets and liabilities, financial position and performance, profits and losses and prospects of the Company; or (B) the rights and liabilities attaching to the Shares; and

(f) the impact that the Rights Issue may have on the control of the Company is as follows:

The following table shows the number of Shares on issue as at the date of this notice and the total number of Shares on issue as at the close of the Rights Issue based on the maximum total Shares to be issued under the Rights Issue (assuming no existing options are exercised).
Shares on issue as at the date of this notice 106,458,662
Shares offered pursuant to the Rights Issue 17,744,000
Total Share on issue at completion of the Rights Issue 124,202,662 

*ARC Energy Limited (ACN 009 204 031) (ARC) has confirmed its intention to the Company to take up its full entitlement to subscribe for Shares pursuant to the Rights Issue with respect to its holding of 33,900,000 Shares.*


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## Lucky_Country

Been away for a while and miss all the action !
Capital raising, K1 fraccing, Wisteria spudding gees and the sp is still not doing much its a tough market at the momment.
Capital raising looks to be a way of rewarding holders before K1 results come in well thats what Im hoping for.
The SA reprt was well timed and gives a good insight Im sure the directors will be buying there allocation even got their options in before the rights issue !
Lets see some results !


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## tomcat

Quarterly Report Out


http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...08 - Quarterly Report ending 30 June 2008.pdf


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## tomcat

These are the main points I like:

*Kennedy*

_The well has since been cleaned up and is now being prepared for continuation of testing and flow-back operations.

Kennedy -1H well is believed to be located in the middle interval of the reservoir which has not previously been fully tested._

We are most likely a week or so away from knowing if zone 2 can be stimulated to produce commercially on matrix porosity alone!!

*Kowalik*

_located approximately 5km north of Kennedy -1H in an area thought more likely to contain natural fractures_

Do we remember how Baker got on when it encountered natural fractures...and this well will be completed with the advantage of all the experience gained so far. This is the first of 4 wells to be drilled continuously one after the other!!

The rest is a good read, New Taiton resolved...Wisteria about to spud...Farm In's already sorted for Indonesia...and then Yemen which could be really exciting next year.

Good luck all holders...we are moving into a very exciting stage in ADI's development from explorer to producer IMHO


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## nioka

Lucky_Country said:


> Capital raising looks to be a way of rewarding holders before K1 results come in well thats what Im hoping for.
> !



 I can't see it being much of a reward. The price is not much below the issue price and it will dilute the number of shares by around 17%. Discount the price before the announcement by 17% and the new issue is at a premium. Of course that matters little if there is some good results. 

 The new issue has made me rework my AUT/ADI relationship. Vulue ADI down, value AUT up. Luckily I hold more AUT than ADI this month. Both are good bargains in my humble opinion but DYOR.


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## Agentm

the hartleys report is very interesting, i like the 2500 bopd from kowalik!!

worth a read, i will post it up..

its on the adi website also along with


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## Lucky_Country

nioka said:


> I can't see it being much of a reward. The price is not much below the issue price and it will dilute the number of shares by around 17%. Discount the price before the announcement by 17% and the new issue is at a premium. Of course that matters little if there is some good results.
> 
> The new issue has made me rework my AUT/ADI relationship. Vulue ADI down, value AUT up. Luckily I hold more AUT than ADI this month. Both are good bargains in my humble opinion but DYOR.




The reward would be on success of K1 and the rest of the drilling program.
Rther than a placement to an institution release the share to existing holders that the majority of are holding tightly which will benefit all the company has more capital directors get a nice little increase in there holdings and no real increase in liquidity.


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## Agentm

*Kennedy -1H well is believed to be located in the middle interval of the reservoir which has not previously been fully tested*

again adi continues to believe they may be in the middle interval..  the question remains is where else can it be believed to be??  

i guess we have to wait until tcei knows for sure?


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## nioka

No quotes for ADI this morning. Anyone know what is going on. Aut still quoting. Can't get my potential swapover trade orders accepted???


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## nioka

nioka said:


> No quotes for ADI this morning. Anyone know what is going on. Aut still quoting. Can't get my potential swapover trade orders accepted???




Quotes comingin. 

1 x 35,000 @ 32c buy
1 x 40,000 @ 20c buy
and only one sell  7,500@ 50c ???????????????????????? this is a puzzle


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## tomcat

Nioka,

Yesterday was the last trading day where any shares bought would be entitled to the 1 for 6 share offer.

They then clean out the system overnight and trading restarts today and any trades done from now on are not entitled to the offer...at least that is the way I understand it.


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## blues

Another well for EME in the Sugarloaf area cant be too long now before we get a spud announcement for Kowalik-1H!  



Empyrean Energy PLC

("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

TCEI JV Block A-4 well has spudded and is drilling ahead

Empyrean, the AIM listed oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and USA announces that it has today been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A-4 well has spudded on Block A. The report showed that operations had commenced on 4th July 2008 and that presently the well had reached a depth of 9,664 feet and the operator was drilling ahead.

The TCEI JV Block A-4 well is designed to drill to the upper pay zone that has proven productive in the TCEI JV Block A-1 and A-3 wells and then drill approximately 6,000 ft horizontally within that zone in order to effect a lateral completion.

The TCEI JV Block A-1 and A-3 wells had early production flow test rates of 12 million cubic feet gas equivalent per day ("mmcfepd") and 7.8 mmcfepd respectively from shorter lateral completions than the 6,000 ft (approximate) lateral completion planned in the TCEI JV Block A-4 well. It is believed by the operator that there is a correlation between the length of successful lateral completion and the flow rates that can be achieved.




Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest in this well.


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## resourceboom

WTF ???? How funny is that comment about ConocoPhillips, I'd damn well hope that there'd be a correlation !! 



blues said:


> It is believed by the operator that there is a correlation between the length of successful lateral completion and the flow rates that can be achieved.


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## Agentm

looking ahead, its clear the drilling takes 14 days to reach 9664 feet, and we have been told kowalik is practically ready, so its either drlling ahead now or will be this weekend imho.

it would be reasonable to assume then these sequences are very likely.

in the coming week, probably early next week, i expect news of the spud of kowalik and drilling ahead, plus the news on kennedy and its flow rate.


two weeks later,  week commencing 4th August, i think kowalik would have drilled its pilot hole to TD and have wirelined, and a report on what the chalks are like there, gas shows etc etc, and they would go back up the hole and commence a horizontal..

in that week it would be expected that wisteria would be spudding.. kowalik would have completed its turn into the zone 1 chalks and would be running a horizontal section..

by the last week of august there would be much learned about kowalik, and wisteria would have been completed to TD..


it would be fair to say the news flow from monday, and the results of all 3 wells will have an impact on the adi share in the near term..


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## Agentm

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide an update on operations within the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”).

Kowalik #1H

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator of the Sugarloaf AMI, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that Kowalik #1H spudded on 18 July 2008 and on 20 July 2008 preparations were being made to commence drilling the 12 1/4" hole section having set and cemented 13 3/8" casing to a depth of 825 ft.
The well is located approximately 5km north of the Kennedy -1H well and on trend from producing wells in adjacent acreage.

As previously advised, the well is engineered to take advantage of the knowledge gained from work carried out within the nearby Sugarkane Gas and Condensate field and an analogous offset field in the region. It will target the upper pay interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in adjacent acreage.

The well is planned to be drilled vertically to approximately 12,000 ft, as a pilot hole, when it will be logged, plugged back and kicked off to drill a 6,000ft horizontal section in the upper pay interval of the Austin Chalk.
It is expected it will take approximately 30 days to drill the pilot hole and a further 30 days to conclude the drilling of the horizontal section.
The Joint Venture is working towards this well being the first in a continuous sequence of 4 wells.

Kennedy -1H
The second stage of fracture stimulation (frac) took place on Thursday 3rd July. As previously advised, in preparation for the stimulation, an additional three sets of perforations were placed in between those used for the first stimulation in the bottom 600 ft of the well. The fracture operation successfully placed approximately 100,000 lbs of high strength proppant into the fractures before high pumping pressures prevented the full program being completed which represented 90% of the planned fluids and 50% of the planned proppant.

Flow back initially recovered about 1,200 barrels of the 6,540 barrels of fluids pumped during fracture operations along with trace amounts of gas and condensate recovered towards the end of this period.

Clean out operations were implemented to wash out fracture proppant that was left in the well bore as a result of the early termination of the frac and well production testing of the well resumed on 15 July 2008.

The well flowed initially at an unstabilized rate of approximately 425,000 cubic feet per day, 106 bbls condensate per day and 48 barrels of water per day. After a few hours at these rates the well commenced slugging and produced intermittently with rates varying between 46 – 107 barrels of condensate per day and gas rates of 200,000 to 300,000 cubic feet per day with periodic influxes of water. 

To ensure that the remaining frac water (at least 5,000 barrels has not yet been recovered from the most recent fracture stimulation) was not preventing the well from unloading efficiently, coiled tubing was mobilised to the rigsite on Friday 18 July. Two attempts have been made to use nitrogen to jet the water and condensate from the well bore. Although additional fluid was recovered, the operation did not improve the flow rates. The well has recovered 44 barrels of fluid with associated gas in the last 24 hours, with the most recent fluid sample showing 80 % condensate. The well will continue
to be monitored.

Further updates will be made as required.


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## Lucky_Country

Well there were some positives from the K1 result but still alot of uncertainty.
106 barrels of condensate an improvement but not great so whats the next move ?
Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks there but the spudding of Kowalik 1 will be the definative time for the future of this project.
No ramping has been done by the management and has been played with a straight bat but Kowalik is expected to be a producer and anything less will be a severe disappointment.


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## Broadside

See investor presentation today which has a few timelines....I like this statement with respect to Kowalik-1H:  "will be drilled and completed using latest techniques including *immediate testing*"

Enough of the waiting.


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## godzillaismad

Any existing shareholders interested participating in the capital raising offer? Have been thinking about it but you can easily pick up a share cheaper in the market at this moment though.


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## nioka

godzillaismad said:


> Any existing shareholders interested participating in the capital raising offer? Have been thinking about it but you can easily pick up a share cheaper in the market at this moment though.





According to the initial notice ARQ are committed to take up their quota which is around 30%. There may not be a lot more unless the SP rises so look out for any good news that the company could release. Some good news could come before the final date and if it does not then the offer date will possibly be extended. The offer is NOT underwritten and company will need the money. Then again the SP is around the offer price and there is no brokerage which does help with small purchases. Like the commentators say at election time "too close to call".


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## speculator101

Well holders, I am going to take up the offer, only a few thousand  shares, (and yes, no real discount) but about 18 months ago I decided that after a bit of DOI research I bought in, ADI has all the makings of great Oil company and I will continue to ride the wave.
I agree, that ADI does need the money and oil exploration is not a fast investment. Then again, the idea of investment to me implies a long term view, so.....

Goodluck to all holders.


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## bazollie

speculator101 said:


> Well holders, I am going to take up the offer, only a few thousand  shares, (and yes, no real discount) but about 18 months ago I decided that after a bit of DOI research I bought in, ADI has all the makings of great Oil company and I will continue to ride the wave.
> I agree, that ADI does need the money and oil exploration is not a fast investment. Then again, the idea of investment to me implies a long term view, so.....
> 
> Goodluck to all holders.




I agree with you Speculator101. At the moment the SP is around the Rights issue price , but the stock available is very thin. With that being the case , and if you are a current holder, it is a great way to add more ADI stock to your portfolio and also , for some of the existing shareholders , a great way to even average down your price without paying brokerage. I am sure that I wouldn't be the only one who has purchased ADI at prices greater than their current price!
If so and you still like the story, and with the current drilling programmes , I see it as an easy way to make some more money. 
I am in this stock for the long term and don't trade in and out of it. I continue to accumulate as I believe there is light at the end of the tunnell. 

DYOR
and yes I am still holding ADI
Regards
bazollie


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## Agentm

i cant get my orders completed, so i will have to buy in the rights issue..

plenty of upside on wisteria and kowalik and kennedy is due to be reported any day now..

Overview of Key Assets

Sugarloaf Project, Texas Gulf Coast (20%)

• commenced drilling the first of up to 4 horizontal wells aimed at
developing a play that has mean potential of 600bcfe

Wisteria Prospect, Timor Sea (10%)

• drilling to start early August targeting reserve potential of
200mmbo with Coogee Resources and where Adelphi is close to
free carried

Blocks 7 & 74, Yemen (8.5%)

• a 3D seismic programme is currently ~90% complete, and 2-3
wells are scheduled for 2009; with Oil Search and Kuwait co’s
Indonesia (50%)

• first right of refusal on a gazettal block and negotiated a farm-out
for a free carry on a significant work programme


Sugarloaf Conclusions
• The Sugarkane production and test results 6km SW of our Sugarloaf
Project on the same trend are encouraging and confirm the
presence of a new Austin Chalk play
• This play highly likely to extend into our Sugarloaf area
• Kennedy test results confirm the presence of condensate and gas
saturated rock mid to lower chalk
• The highly productive upper chalk productive zone has yet to be
tested in the Sugarloaf area. This highly productive zone is the
target for Kowalik
• Kowalik has now spudded – the first of up to 4 back to back
horizontal wells using optimal drilling and completion techniques
• 600 BCFe gross mean potential – 120 BCFe to Adelphi


Yemen – Block 7 (8.5%)
10 km from Uqlah field
276 sq km 3D seismic survey in SW of Block 7 
• 3D seismic survey detailing prospects similar to the Al Uqlah field
• World class prospectivity
• Oil Search retained this area / divested other areas
• Partners
- Oil Search (operator) 34%
- KUFPEC 21.25%
- ARC 21.25%
- The Yemen Company 15%
- Adelphi 8.5%

The 110mmbbls Al Uqlah field 10km west of Block 7 Block 7 Prospect



Wisteria Prospect (ADI 10% near fully carried)
• Three targets in a single well
• Amplitude and HRDZ supported
Puffin stratigraphic trap
• Simple Jurassic structural trap
• 200mmbbls gross potential
• Early August 2008 drilling
• Surrounding production &
developments
• Partnered with Basin’s most
successful operator - Coogee
Resources


New Ventures – Southeast Asia
• Adelphi is pursuing a number of oil and gas opportunities
throughout Southeast Asia with a focus on oily, underexplored
areas with potential for large discoveries
• In Indonesia, our Joint Study with Government is completed and
Adelphi has first right of refusal on a block which was recently
gazetted
• Adelphi has negotiated a farm out in respect of this right in return
to be carried on a significant work program
• Bids close mid-August





Conclusions
• Activity / Leverage / Diversity
• Sugarloaf – *Chalk play in area is proven*, $2.55 cps success case
value
• Kennedy-1H *oil saturation proved*; test still in progress
• Kowalik -1H *spudded* - the first of up to 4 consecutive horizontal wells
• Wisteria-1 – *Multi-target high impact near fully carried well*. Early
August spud; $2.61 cps success case value
• Yemen – 3D seismic 90% complete. Block 7 is Oil Search operated;
world class with a 110mmbbls discovery within 10km of block
• Indonesia – Well positioned to win a block in the upcoming bid
round with pre-bid farmout already secured for a significant work
program
………*a very exciting year ahead.*


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## Agentm

http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-h/REPORTS/69_H_CH_2.pdf

Reservoir Rocks


Austin Chalk

As described previously under the heading Hydrocar-bon Source Rocks, the Austin Chalk is that part of the Austin Group consisting of an argillaceous, compacted, foraminiferal biomicrite (Dawson and others, 1995). Overall, its reservoir properties vary greatly with geographic location and depth of burial, but the strata are considered tight in most areas. *On the San Marcos arch, for example, porosity averages between 15 and 30 percent, and permeabilities are between 0.5 and 5.0 mD* (Scholle and Cloud, 1977); *off the structure, however, porosity and permeability decrease to 10 percent or less and 0.5 mD or less, respectively *(Snyder and Craft, 1977; Hinds and Berg, 1990). The causes of the reduction in porosity and permeability are carbonate recrystallization, which resulted from compaction and pressure solution, and crystallization of secondary ferroan calcite as cement (Dravis, 1981). The Aus-tin is extensively fractured, containing both tectonic fractures and microfractures, the latter resulting from hydrocarbon gen-eration (Snyder and Craft, 1977; Berg and Gangi, 1999). For our study, the Austin Chalk was considered as a reservoir only in limited areas where the unit has been further fractured by extrusion of and structural adjustments over volcanic mounds (fig. 8). The databases we used (IHS Energy Group, 2003a, 2003b) showed Austin production in association with volcanic mounds in about 50 leases (out of a total of more than 22,600 whose wells reach the Austin). In our study, we considered the Austin to be more important as a source rock than as a reservoir.


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## Agentm

this is a report from baker 2 

3 miles west of kennedy it sits right next to baker 1 had significant gas and condensate flows and could only complete 2800 feet of horizontal and had to discontinue drilling due to the overpressurized formation..

1st August 2008
Empyrean Energy PLC 
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA
* TCEI JV Block A Å¾ 4 well reaches total depth in the pilot hole section
* Encouraging gas shows over approximately 300 feet
* Horizontal drilling about to commence along the gaseous interval

Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the USA provides the following update on operations:

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A Å¾4 well has reached a total depth in the pilot hole section of 12,756 feet. Electric logs have been run. Current operations are the setting of cement plugs in order to kick off and commence the horizontal drilling for approximately 6000 ft. 

The electric logs show an interval of approximately 300 feet of gas shows between 12,400 and 12,700 feet. This interval is encouraging and the horizontal portion of the well is designed to drill laterally along a portion of this
interval.

Maximum gas readings reached 1325 units against an average background level of approximately 50 units.


Further updates will be provided as significant developments occur.


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## eopiela

I was alerted to this forum by a fellow Karnes County resident; I'd like to share some on-the-ground knowledge re: the Kowalik well.  We own the property immediately adjacent to the drill site and included in the pooled acreage since it is over the horizontal run.  I've attached a photo of the rig  taken last week.  We received a call from Texas Crude yesterday wanting to negotiate a pipeline easement across our property "by the end of the week."  They sent out surveyors today and should have a plat back to us tomorrow.  Texas Crude is working quickly to get a pipeline laid to connect the well into the Houston Pipeline (high pressure gas) approximately a mile away.


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## sam76

Hey mate, thanks a lot for posting this!

I'm sure agent m will have something more to say about this!


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## Agentm

thanks for the update eopiela, nice post..

the well would be about 10,800 feet by now, and should be finishing the pilot hole by saturday our time..

i think your getting the benifit of a lot of research on the kowalik well, its going to completed open hole with a slotted liner..  and if the TCEI operator can keep it in the upper chalks, you stand a good chance of becoming a wealthy landowner in the future..

We have been told the well will be connected as soon as its completed, so what your saying about TCEI wantingto run a pipeline makes perfect sense.

good luck to you and to all investors.. have you thought of investing in the JVP by any chance, i hear a lot of your neighbours have..


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## Mad Punter

Thanks for the post eopiela, good to hear from the other side of the world.. If you see dirty big flares roaring from there make sure you get a shot and send it down to the believers........


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## buzzbuzz100

*Eopiele*

Thanks for the picture. Any chance you could go and take another couple of photos? Perhaps enlarge the roadside notice/sign, or other notices of interest so we can have proof of the location.


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## Agentm

buzz, eopiela has not got to prove his credentials, the photo is genuine and there has been a savage attack on his privacy by some UK people in the last hours i have been told, the mods have taken care of it, and i recommend everyone steer clear of fflintoff..   i ask the uk people to back off big time!! 


eopiela

well i hear that people have been trying to place severe pressure on you, and i have the impression this person is a guy from the UK..  i cant say how disgusted i am in that person doing this, and i absolutely encourage you to not be too offended by the absolute determination by people to invade your privacy..


i cant apologise on behalf of anyone, but i am deeply upset, disgusted and dissappointed in the way people have acted towards you, i assure you that we here are very interested in you input and we share your excitement of the kowalik well and the TCEI operations,,

i doubt if you will be keen to share anything in light of what happened, and i hope you can understand there are always very unstable people on internet, and your experience was certainly extreme and alarming. the mods here have acted swiftly and i applaud them for their actions..

flintoff, i have no idea what your about, and why you would possibly behave this way towards someone,  but i have no respect for your disregard, and the invasion of privacy and the deep disrespect you have shown on this forum...


----------



## nioka

I agree with agentm. As a person who is prepared to criticise at times I hope that when I do that it is done fairly. Unjust personal criticism as we saw here is uncalled for and I agree with it's removal by the mods. My criticism of ADI is purely along the lines of "when will groundhog day be in the past". No contributor to this forum can answer that question or be responsible for the groundhog.


----------



## Agentm

you have been as frustrated with the TCEI operations "groundhog days" as we all have. and we are all aware, as its been very very clearly said throughout the road show and to all investors through the presentation, the groundhog days are gone..  its now getting to the business of 7 wells in 10 months..

i appreciate your input more than anyones nioka, you have shown us all how to trade between the two shares. ADI and AUT, and come out in front with huge gains in the number of shares..  i admire your very perceptive and clever trading style..

ADI has no other ambition but to give its long term shareholders, and those that support the rights issue, a steady stream of wells that will reward them immediately in texas.. imho we can say that the long wait is over, kowalik will be horizontal in  a week, and imho they will be at 11400 today, and in the chalks tomorrow..

looking forward to the updates next week..


----------



## solomon

eopiela said:


> We received a call from Texas Crude yesterday wanting to negotiate a pipeline easement across our property "by the end of the week."  They sent out surveyors today and should have a plat back to us tomorrow.  Texas Crude is working quickly to get a pipeline laid to connect the well into the Houston Pipeline (high pressure gas) approximately a mile away.




This rings a note of confidence on behalf of the operator. Why else would there be so much urgency to get a pipeline laid. If I was uncertain about the outcome of the well I wouldn't be negotiating contracts and employing surveyors to build a pipeline.


----------



## Broadside

Thanks for the news on the ground eopiela, it's appreciated.  I am very sorry if some people have invaded your privacy but hope it doesn't dissuade you in future.  All the best regardless.


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> This rings a note of confidence on behalf of the operator. Why else would there be so much urgency to get a pipeline laid. If I was uncertain about the outcome of the well I wouldn't be negotiating contracts and employing surveyors to build a pipeline.




i share that sentiment also, there is a lot of confidence that should this rig drill the well into the upper chalks and intersect the natural fracturing rock in the region, then its going to need to put what comes back at it somewhere.. a pipeline is definately needed in the case of drilling these chalks wells.. 

the reasoning for the pipeline hook up is twofold imho, they cant flare for more than 7 days i believe, but importantly, if your going to flare off 2500 bbls per day i think a pipeline would be a far more profitable alternative..


----------



## buzzbuzz100

*Agent & Eopiela*

I accept that all posters on any board should remain anonymous. We should respect their privacy. However I would expect anything posted to have 'proof', especially when its effect can have financial consequences. The photo posted by Eopiela was welcome but it could be any rig anywhere.
I did copy and paste to try maximising the photo. I attempted to read the notice at the road side or read if it was a Texan number plate on the truck. Neither could be proven.  Many of you will have done similar but found the photo insufficient to give a quality that could be dramatically enlarged. [The camera I use would certainly have given sufficient definition to read the small print]
Eopiela tells us he lives local to the drilling site and anticipate pipelines etc. Obviously he is interested in the activities. What I would hope to see is clarification. I would hope Eopiela would find time to revisit the drilling site and take a few photos to prove the location. What is written on the notice board? There must be some detail of a drilling license etc. Let us see proof.

PS ... I recollect we had a similar 'spy' at Glantal. That photo included proof ... it showed the location, license and operators name at the gate!


----------



## fflintoff

*Re: Agent & Eopiela*



buzzbuzz100 said:


> I accept that all posters on any board should remain anonymous. We should respect their privacy. However I would expect anything posted to have 'proof', especially when its effect can have financial consequences. The photo posted by Eopiela was welcome but it could be any rig anywhere.
> I did copy and paste to try maximising the photo. I attempted to read the notice at the road side or read if it was a Texan number plate on the truck. Neither could be proven.  Many of you will have done similar but found the photo insufficient to give a quality that could be dramatically enlarged. [The camera I use would certainly have given sufficient definition to read the small print]
> Eopiela tells us he lives local to the drilling site and anticipate pipelines etc. Obviously he is interested in the activities. What I would hope to see is clarification. I would hope Eopiela would find time to revisit the drilling site and take a few photos to prove the location. What is written on the notice board? There must be some detail of a drilling license etc. Let us see proof.
> 
> PS ... I recollect we had a similar 'spy' at Glantal. That photo included proof ... it showed the location, license and operators name at the gate!




buzz,
It is very important to check the credentials of those that purport to be landowners on this thread in view of the vested interests of certain investors. If they are genuine then they have nothing to hide as they freely chose to post here & to make declarations of land ownership & laying of pipe.
Always be wary of those that champion causes far too freely.


----------



## eopiela

*Re: Agent & Eopiela*



fflintoff said:


> buzz,
> It is very important to check the credentials of those that purport to be landowners on this thread in view of the vested interests of certain investors. If they are genuine then they have nothing to hide as they freely chose to post here & to make declarations of land ownership & laying of pipe.
> Always be wary of those that champion causes far too freely.




I have attached the survey of the site (publically available at the Texas Railroad Commission site http://www.rrc.state.tx.us), clearly showing my name as the landowner of record in the land immediately to the South of the drill site.  Any questions?


----------



## Dukey

*Re: Agent & Eopiela*



eopiela said:


> I have attached the survey of the site (publically available at the Texas Railroad Commission site http://www.rrc.state.tx.us), clearly showing my name as the landowner of record in the land immediately to the South of the drill site.  Any questions?




Eopiela - as others have said - I'd like to add my thanks for sharing your local info & adding some more certainty for us 'remote' holders. & The evidence you've just posted should more than satisfy anyones doubts as far as I'm concerned.

-------------------
PS .. guys.. I thought I had posted a +ve comment thursday night... but it seems to have been removed in the fracas that i've obviously missed.   but I've had no notification from anyone that my post was removed....   can anyone confirm that a post of mine was removed... and/or suggest why?  I seem to recall it was fairly innoquous.

... then again maybe I just pressed the wrong button.. it was late.
-------

Good luck all holders - D


----------



## Agentm

eopiela

you dont need to post details to prove your credentials, i think there is nothing that you can post here that i wouldnt believe as genuine.. i think a photo of kowalik is not going to do anything to the share price, but i can assure you that if you report flares on the forum, that it would cause a lot of speculation on the adi share, and be information that is not declared by the ADI management.. so it would be very interesting to see what sort of impact any pictures or reports from you of any flares during the horizontal completion will be percieved and impact the adi share price, imho this site will be heavily monitored!!  

i have been told TCEI would not like the rig number on the patterson rig at kowalik to be released, but it is public knowledge and  i know as you do its the patterson 160, which has finished recently completing the geosouthern migura and buchhorn dual lateral  horizontals in de witt county.. if they use the same crew then at least there will be some chalks experience on the site.. 

you would be aware that the site info goes to TCEI in houston then to the jvp partners for consideration daily.. your reports would be faster than the info they would get.. that makes for interesting days ahead imho.. 

as your aware there has been a lot of wells drilled not only by texas crude, but also by conocophillips and also geosouthern in live oak, karnes and de witt county..

i doubt if you know too much around the area, but i will ask anyway if you dont mind..

i would like to know if you have heard anywhere how bordovsky went? we know its completed, but have you been able to understand what conocophillips found in the chalks there? i gather you would have spoken to the bordovskys?

it appears that conocophillips has yet to complete a horizontal well and place it on long term production test, we can see kunde 3 has been put on production for a while but i also appears to be on pressure build up tests also. you would have noticed the large number of  tanks on the kunde 3 site recently for their condensate separation,  which indicates they are possibly looking to do some further work on the well or perhaps look at putting it on production for longer term..

i am hearing for over a year that the baker well region is being looked at for a processing plant being put in there, seperators and pipeline connection tie in, but i have yet to see that eventuate, have you been seeing or hearing what the conocophillps operator has planned there?

i gather kowalik is close to being completing its vertical pilot hole, you wouldnt be getting any insights into that, but you may notice when they wireline..

so if you have any insights on these questions i would be interested to know..  btw you are welcome to use the private mail feature if you dont feel comfortable answering the questions in the forum..


----------



## jackohelp

*Re: Agent & Eopiela*



Dukey said:


> Eopiela - as others have said - I'd like to add my thanks for sharing your local info & adding some more certainty for us 'remote' holders. & The evidence you've just posted should more than satisfy anyones doubts as far as I'm concerned.
> 
> -------------------
> PS .. guys.. I thought I had posted a +ve comment thursday night... but it seems to have been removed in the fracas that i've obviously missed.   but I've had no notification from anyone that my post was removed....   can anyone confirm that a post of mine was removed... and/or suggest why?  I seem to recall it was fairly innoquous.
> 
> ... then again maybe I just pressed the wrong button.. it was late.
> -------
> 
> Good luck all holders - D




well done eopiela. I personally don't think you have to prove your identity but it all helps. There has been so much secrecy for the last two or more years, especially for the uk investors, anything you add is more than welcome.

good luck.


----------



## jackohelp

sorry quoted the wrong person in my last post. meant to quote epiola and the survey etc.

anyway thanks again.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

*Eopiela and the photo*

I remain unconvinced! I do not wish you to assume I want an argument. I repeat that the location of the rig in the photo could be unknown and hence unproven. Eopiela could be genuine - we each remain anonymous. The RRC detail is available to everyone. Anyone, including President Bush, could post RRC details. Do we assume a poster is genuine according to name? 
What we need is photographic proof. If Eopiela can post another photo, it should include evidence of location, site license and operator. Until then, despite the goodwill of Eopiela, the photo must be assumed as having no extrinsic value.
IMHO I hope Eopiela can revisit and take photo evidence – license and operators notice etc.  Hopefully a massive flare over the rig!
  I would assume,despite any company wishing for a blackout,if the site is within sight of public access, it is open-house for photos. I would also assume any access road would have posted details of reasons for closure.


----------



## Agentm

buzz, no one has to prove anything to anyone here, least of all to you..

your not even an adi investor. correct?? 

buzz i have photos of various wells flaring, pipelines in the region and i can post them if i care to. but there is no need to, i know where the pipelines are and what size they are and whether they are tied in or not to any major pipeline service... i dont have prove their credentials if i post them just as i dont have prove to my credentials if i say i am an adi investor, or if i am a resident of karnes couty or from vicoria auastralia..  your paranoia is very laughable, next every post on  every bb will be needed to be proved to you!! get a grip on yourself buzz..

there are rules on this forum buzz..

(1) You are solely responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of your posts, including any alterations made to posts. Any misleading or deceptive information may result in action being taken against you by ASIC or those acting on such information.

if the resident from texas is in breach of anything there are mods here to deal with it, and also there are various institiutions that have relevant jurisdiction over any conduct on this forum..


----------



## mick z

I agree with you agentm why does he have to prove himself.
buzz who are you?....... buzzbuzz100 never heard of it... can you authenticate that name. lol

why would he want to post here now any way? to many want to be cops here.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

I post here for the same reason that Australian based Agentm is posting on United Kingdom Advfn. Agentm holds shares in Adi and I hold shares in EME. Agentm posts on our UK website and I post on this Aus website. There are other UK holders of EME shares who appear on this ASF board. 
Until recently I only read your ASF board. The Eopiela drill-rig photo gave interest but also uncertainty. The same photo was posted on our United Kingdom Advfn board. The photo implied it was proven and could be trusted. 
I see no problem in requesting photographic evidence of details. I care not who posted the photograph. In response I received your suspicion. Now I suspect I have detected a weakness. Agentm will know I have read this ASF forum for some time. He has for some time answered my ASF emails which I posted to his box on this ASF site. EME and Adi are JV in Sugarloaf. I hold thousands of EME shares so I also hope Sugarloaf is a proven resource. 
It seems odd that many of you are eager to accept any Eopiela photo credited to Sugarloaf. Perhaps it is an Australian trait never to question detail but here in the UK we expect unequivocal proof before accepting anything in the media.  I DID NOT ask for proof of identity. I did ask for proof of location which would at minimum; include at the location photographic evidence of operators license and drilling permit. A simple factor you apparently wish to overlook.
I will tell you that when EME drilled Glantal, we did get a photo of the drilling rig, site, license and operator. One of our regular anonymous posters on Advfn was on holiday in Germany. He took his camera. The quality photo pictured the drilling site with operators name and license. We knew it to be genuine; it was photographed at the drilling site showing all the necessary details posted on the gate. 

PS ... I do not like Australian lager.


----------



## tarzanhey

buzzbuzz100 said:


> I post here for the same reason that Australian based Agentm is posting on United Kingdom Advfn. Agentm holds shares in Adi and I hold shares in EME. Agentm posts on our UK website and I post on this Aus website. There are other UK holders of EME shares who appear on this ASF board.
> Until recently I only read your ASF board. The Eopiela drill-rig photo gave interest but also uncertainty. The same photo was posted on our United Kingdom Advfn board. The photo implied it was proven and could be trusted.
> I see no problem in requesting photographic evidence of details. I care not who posted the photograph. In response I received your suspicion. Now I suspect I have detected a weakness. Agentm will know I have read this ASF forum for some time. He has for some time answered my ASF emails which I posted to his box on this ASF site. EME and Adi are JV in Sugarloaf. I hold thousands of EME shares so I also hope Sugarloaf is a proven resource.
> It seems odd that many of you are eager to accept any Eopiela photo credited to Sugarloaf. Perhaps it is an Australian trait never to question detail but here in the UK we expect unequivocal proof before accepting anything in the media.  I DID NOT ask for proof of identity. I did ask for proof of location which would at minimum; include at the location photographic evidence of operators license and drilling permit. A simple factor you apparently wish to overlook.
> I will tell you that when EME drilled Glantal, we did get a photo of the drilling rig, site, license and operator. One of our regular anonymous posters on Advfn was on holiday in Germany. He took his camera. The quality photo pictured the drilling site with operators name and license. We knew it to be genuine; it was photographed at the drilling site showing all the necessary details posted on the gate.
> 
> PS ... I do not like Australian lager.





Buzz if are you trying to win an Aussie popularity contest you are not doing very well.

This guy does not have to prove anything to you or anyone - you can beleive him or not that is your choice.

I would advise you to just leave it now. What is the point of alienating fellow jvp investors???.

chill 


Tarzan


----------



## Agentm

my view on kowalik is that it will be close to completion of the vertical, i had calculated 500 feet per day, but its likely the last 3000 feet would have slowed the average down,  i expect news on that in the coming days myself..

good luck to all holders


----------



## nioka

Buz. I accept your explanation for your request. I also accept the reasons why it is drawing criticism from the loyal band of ADI believers. I suggest this matter has had enough comment for now and ask all parties to the debate to put this in the past, refrain from more disruptive comment and relax and wait for a result.


----------



## Agentm

nioka, not one of my contacts in karnes has got any problem with the posts that are coming from eopiela.  i can assure you if it was inaccurate there would be no hessitation in them letting me know, there are many locals in karnes who are also investors in adi, and should any misinformation come through i know i would be notified immediately.. 

now i can say that i am 100% certain of the accuracy of everything eopiela has posted thus far, and i can say the photo and information posted by him is as far as i am concerned completely beyond question..

if any holder is not convinced every well that the jvp is about to complete is not going to be hooked up and put on production after completion, then please email or ring ADI and get the answer there, i have, and nothing being said here by the resident of karnes is not completely accurate to what adi have told me and anyone else that attended the recent roadshow.. all wells are going to be hooked up and put on production,, they certainly have not had that experience in the conocophillips wells, and there is only 1 well that Conocophillips have drilled, in which EME is a JVP, that has been put on any production, thats kunde 3. and if you look at the production rates from the well reported and the RRC figures on production its very hard to say if that well is having long term production testing or is being shut in at times.. the latter seems more likely based on the figures i have seen..

its very important to understand that no one was going to be part of this recent ADI capital raising (including ARQ/AWE) unless the TCEI was going to produce immediately from the completed wells, what other jvp partners have promised their investors in their capital raisings for the future wells that capital was going towards is their issue, just do not listen to the Uk doubters whom are on this thread trying to discredit the absolute truth of what is happening to these block B wells.. So again i stress, its very critical to all to understand that ADI has made certain for its investors that 4 wells in a row will be drilled tested and put on immediate production.. 

final word...  photo 100% genuine imho, pipeline hookup and TCEI surveying oepiela's ranch is 100% genuine imho, and all 4 wells will be hooked up and put on immediate pipeline connection thats 100% going to happen IMHO...

by next week i believe the bid process for indonesia acreages is finished..

anyone who  wants to lay a bet that ADI wont have 100% take up of the rights issue please PM me, i need some spare cash to buy more adi..


----------



## fflintoff

*Re: Eopiela and the photo*



buzzbuzz100 said:


> I remain unconvinced! I do not wish you to assume I want an argument. I repeat that the location of the rig in the photo could be unknown and hence unproven. Eopiela could be genuine - we each remain anonymous. The RRC detail is available to everyone. Anyone, including President Bush, could post RRC details. Do we assume a poster is genuine according to name?
> What we need is photographic proof. If Eopiela can post another photo, it should include evidence of location, site license and operator. Until then, despite the goodwill of Eopiela, the photo must be assumed as having no extrinsic value.
> IMHO I hope Eopiela can revisit and take photo evidence – license and operators notice etc.  Hopefully a massive flare over the rig!
> I would assume,despite any company wishing for a blackout,if the site is within sight of public access, it is open-house for photos. I would also assume any access road would have posted details of reasons for closure.




Buzz,
You are right to be sceptical. This is starting to stink to high heaven as there is so much obvious collusion. It started with the fabricated posts on the mindat thread & now there is an attempt to repeat it here on the ASF thread which is regrettable.
Be very wary of this contrived exchange of correspondence.

http://www.mindat.org/forum.php?read,17,94321,95883


----------



## mick z

come on guy's let it go.

we dont want this board ending up like yours.

this board is heavily moderated fflintoff, so don't be surprised if your last post gets lifted.

mick


----------



## Agentm

second time i have had to use the ignore feature on this site.. 


View Post  Today, 04:49 PM  

This message is hidden because fflintoff is on your ignore list.  


i have to say eopiela there is no problem with you posting on this thread, and i have seen there are a lot of adi investors who post here who value your input..


----------



## Hatchy

I'd personally love to see more photo's, eopelia - if you've got more that'd be great! 

I'd like to see a photo of the general area to get an idea what the whole place looks like - i've not seen concentrated drilling acreage.


----------



## Agentm

these are 2 pictures of kowalik being built that i aquired.

below that is the kowalik well as of a week or so ago..

as far as regional pictures go the country is relatively flat, kowalik is actually on a small ridge so it stands high on the horizon and is noticable..

the region has lots of ranches, i know there are plenty of deer farms in the area, where kowalik is there seems to be more pasture and open fields..


----------



## Hatchy

Thanks!

See this is what it's about, seeing what's going on so we can feel connected to the shares we've waited so long to see run.


----------



## estseon

Hi Guys,

All of the chat about whether the wells will be put on production and connected to sales or not, and here is proof that they will, and here is evidence that CoP is not (????) over on Block A, has got me all a bit confused.

So far as I am aware, there are 3 completed wells over at Block A. Kunde 1 (the vertical that EME has NO interest in), Kunde 3 that was reported as linked to the sale line months ago, but which may not be under continuous production, and Baker 1, which was shut in for pressure build up whilst infrastructure was being constructed (EME reported in its 2008 Report and Accounts a couple of months back). The plan for Baker 1 (reported) was to separate the condensates on site and to truck them to sales.

The other two wells are Kunde 2 used for monitoring fracturing - there is no suggestion that it is or is about to be completed, and Baker 2, which is being drilled (the horizontal section).

I don't see any evidence from Block A to support any contention that Kowalik will not be producing for sales and earning revenues as soon as possible after successful completion. However, they will need to do as CoP is doing over at Kunde 3 and if they are going to truck 400 tonnes of condensate a day (Agentm suggested 2,500 barrels of condensate a day) they might need to tarmac the gravel road. So constructing the high pressure gas pipeline link might be only part of the story but that doesn't necessarily mean waiting for 2009 before income flow. It might only take a few weeks if there are no planning consent and environmental impact issues to deal with (such as in Europe).

With luck, the compounding revenue stream will start to finance the accelerating drilling programme from next year. Fingers-crossed that we have seen the last of the capital raisings for Sugarloaf.

I have interests in both companies.


----------



## Agentm

esteon, lets get technical on this..

1. i am NOT saying kowalik will produce 2500 bbls, i am saying that correctly completed wells are estimated to produce a minimum of 2500 bbls if they encounter the right formation. but having said that i am as optimistic as anyone in hoping for a successful completion..

2. the stuff about the gravel road and trucks not being able to use them.. utter rubbish (sorry to be blunt but it really is nonsense) there is not a site in texas or even a site locally where a tanker cannot access a gravel road to a pad and haul liquids out, the pads and roads are designed for the use of heavy vehicles and loads.. the frac fluid tanks for instance, massive tankers fully  laden with liquids.. have no trouble getting in and out.. and a smaller tanker hauling oil from storage tanks on site anywhere in texas, USA or anywhere on the the planet has not a problem..  

why suddenly has kowalik got this unique problem?


----------



## estseon

Hi Agentm,

I did not mean to suggest your figure to be a firm prediction. I was more focussed on what it meant in relation to transportation, not to mention temporary storage and separation facilities. 

As to roads etc, this was EME's experience in March 2007 in relation to the Margarita project in Texas:

(RNS 19th March 2007): "AIM quoted Empyrean Energy PLC today advises that the first three wells of the six well shallow drilling program ( < 2,000 metres depth) on Project Margarita, South Texas, USA, have been technical successes, with El Viejito #1 and Dos Dedos #1 being gas discoveries and Milagro #1 being an oil discovery.

However, due to winter rains in the last two weeks, inclusive of 8" of rain in
one day, all sites are currently inaccessible until late next week to resume
completion operations, ie Dos Dedos #1 is still awaiting testing and Milagro #1
connection to a sales line to sell the volatile oil (gas) being produced which
should change to oil in a short time period...."

They might not consider it an issue and may be prepared to weather a week or so. The point that I was trying to make was that the installation of a pipeline is one only of the things they need to do to sell the production as is the case for Baker 1. I wasn't making a big issue of it. There was no suggestion in the EME Report & Accounts that the infrastructure construction for Baker 1 was a major operation.


----------



## Agentm

next well for conocophillips

OP # 109333   -   BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP    
Pending Approval , Submitted  08/12/2008 , Filed  Online   

MARLENE OLSON - Well # 1 
02 - LIVE OAK County New Drill 
Vertical  

listed as a vertical.. having a look!


----------



## eopiela

Hatchy said:


> I'd personally love to see more photo's, eopelia - if you've got more that'd be great!
> 
> I'd like to see a photo of the general area to get an idea what the whole place looks like - i've not seen concentrated drilling acreage.




Here is another picture, taken from our property, that shows the rig and the land around.  The rig is in an overgrown wooded area across FM 2102 from our property.


----------



## Agentm

bit of green there in pasture, nice picture.

nice 50,000 unit dump late in the day, 15k exit!  

conoco is still drilling the chalks again in live oak with a new well after baker so i am happy to see they are putting in step out wells.. the baker region is very attractive to them.. no updates on baker 2.. interesting!

kowalik is about to go horizontal, and its evident the chalks again are showing background readings in the vertical, its what i expected to hear..

looking forward to the next weeks ahead now..


----------



## speculator101

Hello loyal holders.
Just thought I would post the latest.
I must admit, I am a little disappointed, in how large the shortfall is, of course in the current economic conditions (local and world) people have zipped up their wallets!

“RIGHTS ISSUE - NOTIFICATION OF SHORTFALL
Adelphi Energy Limited (Company) confirms that the shortfall from the rights issue of shares announced by the Company on 15 July 2008, was 7,969,353 shares. This represents a take-up of approximately 55.1%, with total proceeds of some $3.13 million.
Pursuant to the Offer Document lodged with ASX on 15 July 2008, Adelphi retains the right to place the balance of the shortfall at $0.32 per share to eligible shareholders and exempt investors under section 708 of the Corporations Act.
The Company expects that, following allotment of the rights issue shares, holding
statements will be dispatched on or before 18 August 2008.”

So I guess all I’m after, is some opinions on whether this shortfall will have any effect of ADI’s future plans etc? Also, does this give ARC the option of taking up more?
And please no screams of this is the end etc, as ADi clearly has a future in oil and gas, if not this year, then the next…

IMHO. Cheers.


----------



## hashertu

For Agentm.
Apologies for disturbing you here, but ADVFN is a kindergarten at the moment.
Kennedy 1H.
1.  Why only 19ft of perforations given how long the horizontal section is?
2.  Where do you think all the frac fluid has gone?
3.  Am I right to think that there are limitations on how much flaring is permitted in Texas?  Therefore, to put the well on a long term test a means has to be provided to safely dispose of the gas.   Hence the connection of Kennedy to gas infrastructure.


----------



## Agentm

as far as i am concerned the shortfall is as i had expected, the top 20 would have been big contributors..  smaller speculators would not need to get the increases as its available on a day to day basis..

i have the understanding that there is sufficient interest in the shortfall from various parties.. its of no concern to me at this stage, its not underwritten and if the rights issue is fully subscribed then the right sort of folk are on the register..  ie: fully supporting the comapny not in by default! (check other capital raisings for comparisons)..

4 wells in texas, one in timor sea, 2 in temen, in the coming months... exciting days ahead..


hashertu.. i agree with your sentiment..

it was light frac initially in kennedy, followed by extra perferations.. the frac fluid that doesnt immediately return just stays in teh formatin,, its not unusual for all the frac fluids not to return on certain fromations.. 


re the flaring, there are limitations on how long,, 14 days i believe.. but its more a case of putting a serparator on the gas and not giving it to the pipeline owners for free..  if you donrt seperate the condensate, their systems clean their gas later and get it for free!! i prefer to see it in our hands..


----------



## Hatchy

eopiela said:


> Here is another picture, taken from our property, that shows the rig and the land around.  The rig is in an overgrown wooded area across FM 2102 from our property.




Ah, fantastic - it's great to know where it actually is. 

Does your property get used for cattle or deer?

I wonder if there's oil/gas somewhere beneath those grassy knolls? 

Thanks again.


----------



## Agentm

just some things to think about regionally..

i will post a map of the wells close by from the baker wells to the kowalik..  the new well conocophillips is about to drill, marlene olsen well..  

down south from the two baker wells there is a well drilled by mobil in early 1989..  that well is called the Mobil Ford, i will post the scouting report well logs..  i have highlighted the region that Mobil noted during the drill, the well was an edwards well, it tested the edwards then was shut in.. back then the thought of drilling or testing the austin chalks this far south was not ever contemplated, the very attractive edwards was on the menu..

they missed something, didnt think to test it or facc it..  but when burlington saw it in kunde 1, testing the edwards yet again.. they knew with the well logs from mobil and later from the other well logs of 11 wells in the region, this same chalks play appears.. no one tested it as everyone was after the edwards then.. burlington really hit on something then, conoco has been eager for it and i can clearly see where they are buying leases in the region,

i will list the logs of the mobil well..

lastly i will list recent lease activity by TCEI and meridian just in the past few months.. you would note in the recent report the acreages got larger? estseon reported it recently "I also note that the AMI has increased from 22,200 reported by EKA on 30th April to a bit over 23,100 reported today."

the regional lease activity by tcei in karnes and  live oak is also worth a look so i will demonstrate their lease activity there also..  in the karnes county map i have included the meridian leases recently aquired (black dots).  btww these dots can represent 5 or 10 or more leases on the title there.. .  

with conoco filing a new permit and our jvp doing 4 in a row in karnes county, it sure hasnt shown any signs of stopping imho.. happily holding for results..


----------



## Agentm

the chalks in east texas, although thinner (only 30 feet) have still been producing some excellent results, its comforting to know the sugarkane is80 feet just in the zone 1 proven zone...

they have pipeline constraints there and have had to restrict flow rates. 



Meridian Reports Test Results of BSM A-507 No. 1 Well in East Texas Austin Chalk Play

HOUSTON, Aug. 12, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- 

The Meridian Resource Corporation (NYSE:TMR) today announced initial production test results on its Blackstone Minerals A-507 No. 1 ("BSM") well, located in Polk County, Texas in the Company's East Texas Austin Chalk Play. *The well was recently tested over a several day period at gross daily flow rates as high as 20 million cubic feet of natural gas per day ("Mmcf/d") and 6,200 barrels of oil per day ("Bopd")*. Flowing tubing pressure was measured at approximately 1,300 pounds per square inch ("psi") through an open choke. The well was drilled vertically to approximately 13,000 feet then added two horizontal laterals. The first lateral extends approximately 5,400 feet in length with the second extending approximately 6,200 feet for a total wellbore exposure in the Austin Chalk of 11,600 feet. 
The dual lateral well was placed on production shortly after the start of the test, and is still in a "clean-up" of drilling fluids phase with intermittent fluctuations normally experienced during the first several day phases of production for wells similarly drilled and produced in the area. *The well is currently producing between 11 and 17 Mmcf/d into sales relative to pipeline pressure constraints, in addition to approximately 4,200 Bopd.* The Company expects that the well will display similar producing characteristics to other Austin Chalk wells in the area, with the typical hyperbolic decline curve from current production levels during the coming months. However it can be noted that the initial test rate for this well is one of the best in this area. This well is located approximately 5 miles southeast of Leggett, Texas. Meridian owns approximately 38% working interest in this well (26% net). 
A second well in this area, the Davis A-388 No. 1, recently reached total depth on the second horizontal lateral section at a depth of approximately 19,000 feet MD. Currently a liner is being set in the second lateral in order to complete the well, and is scheduled to be tested in the coming weeks. The Company has approximately 45% working interest in this well (31% net) which is located approximately two miles to the northwest of the BSM A-507 No. 1 well. 
The Company's Triton rig was moved off the BSM A-507 well and is being deployed to drill the Sutton A-574 No. 1 well. This dual horizontal lateral well is located approximately two miles due north of the BSM A-507 No. 1 well.


----------



## nioka

Still a possibility for trading between ADI and AUT. I've increased my interest in Sugarloaf again this week and had some petty cash left over at the end. No big trades but a little here and there when the opportunity arises. The best way to get a little pork fat from the ground hog. It saves a person getting bored with the snails pace development. Surely there are others in on the act by now.


----------



## Agentm

your extremely clever at this cross trade process. i absolutely hope you make a fortune from it myself..

I have been looking closer at baker 2 in live oak, and the more i research whats going on in the well, the more the well intrigues me..

it makes sense that EME is not reporting on it as i think a lot of what is happening there would not be allowed out in the open because it would be allowing too much information to the competitors in the region.

I think very little information will be released from this point by conocophillips on the live oak well, and in no way could the long time periods between the reports be interpreted as being negative, imho the Baker 2 well will be a long completion..

Kowalik is in the process of kicking off and going horizontal.. 

7 wells in the next 10 months.. ADI has a busy time ahead..


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> your extremely clever at this cross trade process.




What exactly is cross trades? I've often thought it would be a good idea to chase whoever has the next well, but I don't think that's what you mean?


----------



## Agentm

its not a cross trade as like a broker to broker, nioka trades between AUT and ADI and makes great gains on the timing between the two, he has been documenting it for a long time..  nioka does this with other shares also,, imho he should set up a separate thread and explain how its done.. its very clever imho


----------



## nioka

Hatchy said:


> What exactly is cross trades? I've often thought it would be a good idea to chase whoever has the next well, but I don't think that's what you mean?



 ADI and AUT in my eyes are around equal value. If I can sell 10,000 of one and buy 10,500 of the other (greater quantities if possible. min 10,000) and end up with some change after brokerage then I trade. 
 I do the same with some other stocks for which I set relative values. TAS and TASO. TEY and TEYO as examples.
 You have to establish your own relative values. DYOR.


----------



## Hatchy

Very interesting... I will get stuck into some research on that this weekend. Can you give me a pointer as to how you determine one share to have equal value - is it future prospects or current assets?


----------



## Broadside

Hatchy said:


> Very interesting... I will get stuck into some research on that this weekend. Can you give me a pointer as to how you determine one share to have equal value - is it future prospects or current assets?




they have exposure to the same prospects (differing % participation) but the stocks don't always move in unison, I think this is how nioka works the trades...eg if ADI fell 15% and AUT only 5% you'd sell some AUT and buy some ADI (simplified) and vice versa etc etc


----------



## estseon

EME & ADI are comparable in terms of interest in reserves per share. Because of the time difference, I can only place limit orders with my UK broker. So trading between the two, especially taking account of the relatively thin market in ADI most of the time, is a bit of a mission. Nevertheless, I did top up with ADI instead of EME last time. ADI still represents 2x gearing on the reserves. It is twice as undervalued


----------



## nioka

Broadside said:


> they have exposure to the same prospects (differing % participation) but the stocks don't always move in unison, I think this is how nioka works the trades...eg if ADI fell 15% and AUT only 5% you'd sell some AUT and buy some ADI (simplified) and vice versa etc etc




 Basically that is right.It is a little more complicated than that. ADI and AUT have the same percentage interest in the Sugarloaf but the market cap of AUT is almost twice that of ADI. If there is news coming for Sugarloaf it will impact more on ADI than AUT. If the news is good ADI will rise more than AUT in the first instance but AUT has more leasehold area than ADI so it probably will follow ADI's rise with one of it's own. Another factor to take into account is the available cash. Cash will be needed until there is an income flow to fund the expansion of drilling. All things taken into account I conclude that the have equal value to me. Therefore if one exceeds the other with regards to the SP then I trade one for the other. I often make wrong decisions so DYOR. Available volumes are not great so it is little by little. Maybe I have made it hard for myself by telling others of the idea but at least a little trading in the shares of both helps maintain liquidity.


----------



## nioka

The trades are still there. I have traded 10500 AUT for 11,500 ADI this morning. Not as neat as I would have liked the extra shares cost $34. Usually I like to have some petty cash left over, had tried to sell at 34c and buy at 30c but ended up getting 33c at open. Earlier on the indicative price was 34c. As I said it is little by little but it adds up by the end of the week. I'm also trading the difference in MCR and OZL.


----------



## Hatchy

I think a start for me is to get some free cash and then buy some AUT. 

Nioka, would I be right in saying it helps to have an interest in both companies that you're cross trading? That way you can go either way instead of waiting for the swing to go your way?

Cheers


----------



## nioka

Hatchy said:


> I think a start for me is to get some free cash and then buy some AUT.
> 
> Nioka, would I be right in saying it helps to have an interest in both companies that you're cross trading? That way you can go either way instead of waiting for the swing to go your way?
> 
> Cheers



 The simple answer is yes but it is not necessary. If you hold ADI and they are worth less than AUT then you can't gain and will have to wait for an opening. The chance will come. I like to hold both as an insurance policy. Both have some other interests apart from the one they hold together. You can get caught out if you sell one and miss out on the buy at the right price. At times I have sold and the buy hasn't happened because of queue jumping on opening and the reverse can happen too. Wise move to sell first unless you can afford the buy without making the sale.


----------



## mick z

hi guys,

just a tit bit from the western australian this morning.

HEAD LINE.- global projects delays and export curbs cause analysts to predict a massive jump in gas prices and parity with oil.

they say it could jump as high as $us25per million british thermal units in the northern hemisphere winter.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hard to understand whom is selling this close to results from Kowalik 1 but everyone has there own reasons.
Current market sentiment may not give ADI the full boost to the shareprice warranted if sucessful but that will change as confidence returns.
Looking forward to some positive results in the next few weeks even feel Kennedy 1 is still on the cards for commercial production with the statement in the update.
Its been a long wait good luck to all !


----------



## Agentm

Today    61,017  17,558  
This Week    72,517  21,008  
This Month    506,003  159,155 

not many trades Lucky_Country

there is no mass exodus from adi, nor any of the jvp's in australia. 

the adi holders know the 7 wells coming up all have great prospects for them, and that is probably why the share still has some value in it.. if you compare to many of its peers you will see they have had a disater keeping any value and they have been extremely volatile,

there is no way i am selling whilst Conocophillips are drilling continiously 5 miles away.. the recent meridian blackstone well in polk county had 6200 bbls per day and 20 mmcfpd gas..

i am staying in this one.. theres enough cash in the bank, and AWE/ARQ fully supports adi in the various world class projects its undertaken.. no need to say patience is required as its all happening right now, the results of sugarkane in kowalik will now be known in a matter of days and weeks...


good luck to all holders and dyor..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Good to see the directors taking up the rights issue thats the tick of approval imo.
Looking forward too seeing whom takes out the shortfall in the issue.


----------



## Agentm

awe i dont have a clue

there was a recent report to the rrc by conoco on baker 2, its interesting in that the baker 2 well has a permit as a single lateral completion so far.. yet they have reported this on the well the other week..

API Number:  42-297-34790   Location: Live Oak ,   Texas  
Current Well Type: Active Permit  Status: drilling in progress  
Current Lease Name: BAKER FAMILY TRUST   

Event: Other  Event Date:  07/28/2008 09:00  Event Depth:    

Operator (ph): BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP   Well Number: 2  

Comments: CALLED TO NOTIFY THAT THEY WERE GOING TO SET TWO KICKOFF PLUGS (WHIPSTOCKS) FOR ORPHAN PILOT WELL BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 ON 7-28-08  


setting two kick off plugs on a single lateral.. whats that about?  dual lateral?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Just been reading this months ResourceStocks magazine and a whole page on ADI in the August issue.
Peter Strachan is the authour and he seems very positive with his coverage of ADI and Sugarloaf prospect.
Well worth a read !


----------



## sam76

you can get a free copy of the magazine here

http://www.resourcestocks.com.au/freetrial.html

Not sure if it's this months edition though.


----------



## barney

Lucky_Country said:


> Good to see the directors taking up the rights issue thats the tick of approval imo.
> Looking forward too seeing whom takes out the shortfall in the issue.




Agree IJH, Especially good to see Graham Riley top up with about $67,000 worth.

Re those selling at the moment ... everyone has there own reasons for selling, but in the current "groundhog" climate, it would be no surprise if those buying atm. are the same punters with their sell orders sitting in the queue UNDER the current rights issue price ...... Until we get some definitive news, the smart buyers can force the price down by dumping on the sell queue with a small % of their holdings, while at the same time picking up the dregs from the "weaker hands" at better than the R/I price ......... Any sniff of positive news and the sell orders at these prices will vanish pretty quickly I suspect.  Its an unfortunate bi-product of holding very illiquid stocks ..


----------



## Agentm

someone is trying real hard in the afternoons to buy about 500,000 aut, and it keeps happening each day,,  it floats up and down..  ,32 .31 .315  then goes away..


if anyone didnt want to stay in then there is an exit price there.. 

tomorrow the update on kowalik..  expect to hear its nearing the horizontal section..


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> someone is trying real hard in the afternoons to buy about 500,000 aut, and it keeps happening each day,,  it floats up and down..  ,32 .31 .315  then goes away..
> 
> 
> if anyone didnt want to stay in then there is an exit price there..
> 
> tomorrow the update on kowalik..  expect to hear its nearing the horizontal section..





Gidday Agent,  Been noticing that potential buyer on AUT as well .... I get the feeling they may have split their order up today so they got a partial fill, but not 100% sure on that ......... Agree that if someone wanted to get out, that buy order was giving every opportunity ......... no takers  ...

Iv'e got to say that owning ADI has been like getting teeth drilled at times, but "the story" is still alive .............. Not sure about everyone else, but I'm not known for my patience ........ so this share has taught me some new skills   ........... 2009 will be a year to remember methinks ..  Could I suggest, that anyone who is only now considering entering an ADI shareholding ...... buy those current shares being offered at less than the rights issue price, and teach those silly buggers a lesson .............. I'm unfortunately out of spare cash


----------



## Lucky_Country

I just hope all of us long term holders profit and have one party to remember !
Its been a real rollercoaster ride up to over $1 down to 18c and really tested all the trading emotions so we deserve to be rewarded so come ADI lets get  some results.


----------



## nioka

Look for a move in ADI today with the news out on Kowalik-1H operational update. Everything appears to be proceeding to plan.


----------



## tomcat

20 August 2008 

WISTERIA 1 WELL 

Norwest has been informed by Coogee Resources, the Operator of AC/P32 in the Timor Sea, 
that the Wisteria-1 well, which had been delayed to the first quarter of 2009 could now spud 
as early as the coming weekend 23/24 August. The turnaround in the likely spud date is due 
to weather related issues and the scheduling of development operations at Coogee’s Montara 
field. Contractual arrangements for the drilling rig that is to drill Wisteria-1 allow Coogee 
Resources the right to determine the rig work schedule. 

Further updates will be made as soon as the rig schedule has firmed up. 

The Company has a 15% interest in the Wisteria 1 well and will contribute approximately 6% 
of the dry hole costs of the well. 

The participants in the AC/P 32 permit are: 

Coogee Resources (Ashmore Cartier) Pty Ltd (Operator)  22.5% 

Westranch Holdings Pty Ltd 
(a wholly owned subsidiary of Norwest)    15.0% 

Adelphi Energy Limited      10.0% 

Bounty Oil & Gas NL      10.0% 

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd     20.0% 

Cosmo Energy Exploration & Development Ltd   22.5% 




For and on behalf of  
Norwest Energy NL 


EA Myers 
Company Secretary


----------



## Agentm

wisteria news i like..  been hearing this story for a few days now..

in live oak, conocophillips has announced Kunde 4, a horizontal completion next to kunde 3..

will post a comprehensive map with this...

who's selling??


----------



## forfunsake

Hi guys and especially AgentM

I bought in at 68c and have watched the slow decline in the price. Your insight AgentM has kept up the confidence in this share and the company management should buy you lunch.

I just love it when someone gets out at 30c as it helps me average down.

All the best to holders as I imagine some great times are not far away.


----------



## Agentm

adi need to spend their cash in texas and yemen and timor sea, not on lunches! 

i certainly am staying in now that conoco is drilling the wells like they are.. the amount of permits they are putting through indicates to me that perhaps more dilling rigs are about to arrive.. so an intensive drilling program of up to 40 wells has been mentioned by eme.. this is the first time we are seeing the chalks getting close attention with multiple rigs and wells..  imho there is not any doubt in my mind that the chalks are everything the jvp has been saying about them, and imho a hell of a lot more.. 

all these wells will be completed open hole and slotted liner.. and if you follow the announcements they are now not even discussing completion lengths of the wells any more.. things are very very tight in texas..

we need our karnes county resident to perhaps enlighten us as to how the pipeline is going and when the cement trucks arrive on site at kowalik,, that would be very interesting news for the holders..

things are really starting to turn around for adi,, 7 wells at least in the next 10 months..  maybe many many more..


----------



## Lucky_Country

ADI just love suprises ie ACP32 spudding this weekend even.
Now the next suprise maybe Kennedy 1 love too hear more on that front.
Kowalik seems to be smooth sailing so far and going according to plan.


----------



## fflintoff

"Coogee’s Wisteria-1 may spud this week


Wednesday, 20 August, 2008, 01:58 GMT  | last updated: Wednesday, 20 August, 2008, 03:36 GMT

By Upstream staff 

Coogee Resources may spud the Wisteria-1 well off north-west Australia in licence AC/P32 as early as this coming weekend after recently postponing the hole till the first quarter next year. 
Co-venturer Norwest Energy said that the turnaround in the likely spud date is due to weather-related issues and the scheduling of development operations at Coogee’s Montara field. 
The spud date was previously delayed as Coogee needed the rig urgently for installation work at the Montara project. 
Norwest said that contractual arrangements for the West Atlas jack-up drilling rig, which is set to drill Wisteria-1, allow Coogee the right to determine the rig work schedule. 
Co-venturer Bounty Oil & Gas recently said that Wisteria is an attractive play targeting gross reserves of 200 million barrels of oil in three zones. 
Coogee operates the AC/P32 permit with a 22.5% stake, with partners Westranch on 15%, Adelphi Energy on 10%, Bounty Oil & Gas with 10%, Bharat Petroleum Holding 20% and Cosmo Energy Exploration & Development on 22.5%"

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article161388.ece


----------



## nioka

The balance for value between ADI and AUT swings slightly in favour of ADI after taking into account the bringing forward of Wisteria-1 and with the news that Kowalik-1H is progressing to plan. My previous assessment rated them equal. At today's value I suggest at least a 10% premium for ADI. This is allowing for different market caps when considering Kowalik and the fact that AUT has no interest in Wisteria. 
These are my thoughts. DYOR and make determine your own values.


----------



## Agentm

you cant compare ADI to AUT..  this is the way hartleys see it..

Adelphi Energy Limited (“ADI”, “Adelphi”, “Company”) is on the verge of significant activity at its Sugarloaf project (ADI 20%) in the US. Over the last 12 months, the Company has experienced delays and a disappointing result due to technical issues. However, during this time, *the prospectivity of the play has been de-risked by successful results nearby.* Testing at its Kennedy-1 well is imminent; however, the well was not drilled ideally so results are not expected to be great. 

The next well, Kowalik-1, is expected to spud in July 08 and could yield
flow rates in the order of 10 million cubic feet per day with 2,500 barrels of
condensate per day. 


Adelphi is leveraged to the high risk / reward Wisteria prospect (ADI 10%) in the Timor Sea, which is scheduled for drilling in July 08. *This well will target a medium risk deeper prospect that has potential for 25 million barrels of gross recoverable oil, and a shallower high risk prospect that may contain 175 million barrels of gross recoverable oil.*
The Company has an 8.5% interest in an attractive exploration permit in Yemen, *which has a 110 million barrel oil discovery immediately adjacent to it*. 

Adelphi also has a 100% interest in an Indonesia study, soon to be gazetted, and is in the advanced stage of a farmout agreement to obtain a free carry on the forward work program. 

We rate Adelphi Energy Limited as a Speculative Buy.

Investment Highlights

*• Sugarloaf Potential  190cps – *

The Kowalik-1 well will be drilled, completed and tested in one seamless operation, with spud planned for July 08. The well will target the upper Austin chalk, which has produced strong results in adjacent permits. Through better understanding of the play, the joint venture has planned the location for Kowalik by using seismic to identify areas that are more likely to contain natural fractures. The well will also be completed using the same techniques that have yielded flow rates in an analogue field of up to 20 million cubic feet per day. *The potential of Sugarloaf remains unchanged at an estimated gross 600 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent*.

• Kennedy-1 Testing – Kennedy-1 was stimulated using a light sand frac
over the deepest quarter of its horizontal section and produced minor gas
volumes and 40 barrels of condensate per day. A bigger frac with different
fracture fluid will be implemented over the same interval within the next few
weeks. It is thought that this could increase rates to between 80 and 200
barrels of condensate per day. Kennedy was drilled into the lower – middle
Austin chalk, which is thought to be less productive than the upper chalk, so
is not indicative of the expected rates at Kowalik.


*• Wisteria Prospect Potential 350cps (ADI 10%) – *

*Potential company making drilling is imminent on the Wisteria prospect* in the Timor Sea, Australia. The deeper target, potentially worth 58cps to Adelphi, is considered medium risk. *The shallower target is higher risk but has a potential value of 326 cps for the Company*. 

*Adelphi is essentially free carried for the drilling of this well*.

• Oil Search Sells Midde East Assets – Not Block 7 (ADI 8.5%) – *Oil
Search has recently completed the sale of most of its Middle East assets,
but has opted to retain Block 7 due to its prospectivity*. Immediately adjacent
to Block 7 is a large oil discovery that high grades the potential of the block.
3D seismic has commenced prior to possible drilling in late 2009.

• Activity Ramping Up – Adelphi’s cash balance of $5m will allow it to fund
its share of the upcoming program in the US. The Company is free carried
through imminent potential company making drilling at Wisteria and has a
working interest in prospective acreage in Yemen. After relative inactivity,
the Company is entering an exciting phase with potential for significant
share price appreciation.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> you cant compare ADI to AUT..




 I don't agree with you on that point. By comparing them on a regular basis and trading according to my calculations I have been able to increase my holding, take some profit, recoup my original outlay and still hold a reasonable parcel. The recent events have helped and I'll continue to compare and trade the differences as I see them. I am mainly in ADI now after a period where the AUT price has exceeded the ADI price but will still look for opportunities to trade either way.

 Both will benefit from some good news, today ADI has more to gain than AUT if the prospects prove up to expectations. Tomorrow could be a different ball game.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> I don't agree with you on that point. By comparing them on a regular basis and trading according to my calculations I have been able to increase my holding, take some profit, recoup my original outlay and still hold a reasonable parcel. The recent events have helped and I'll continue to compare and trade the differences as I see them. I am mainly in ADI now after a period where the AUT price has exceeded the ADI price but will still look for opportunities to trade either way.
> 
> Both will benefit from some good news, today ADI has more to gain than AUT if the prospects prove up to expectations. Tomorrow could be a different ball game.




read hartleys report, AUT is not in any of the projects mentioned, you are absolutely incorrect.., 

as i have said before, i have admired how you have traded before between them, but adi is not a one play stock like EKA an AUT..  sugarkane is the common theme between them but it no longer is relevant once other projects come into play..

if you have this opinion on AUT then you have to say right now BUY has to be fluctuating the same price percentages as ADI,  as ADI is also in wisteria which is close to being drilled, and later when yemen is drilled in  2009, are you going to draw the same differences to oilsearch?

AUT has a far greater exposure to sugarkane Nioka, and would attract a different investor with the taste for an "all in or nothing approach to the suagarkane"

If you think the one play stocks like AUT and EKA will now increase on the drill results form wisteria and later in yemen then your perhaps going to be miscalculating somewhat..

i agree whilst only one play was in motion the trading between the various shares was likely to be stable and allow for predictable outcomes,  imho the fluctuations on the ADI sp with other projects like yemen, indonesia and wisteria will make the valuations between the shares a lot harder..

good luck if you can still achieve the cross overs nioka, but i can assure you i cant get any value for all the ADI projects by investing in AUT or EKA.. they are different stocks with distinctly different risk profiles and exposures to the suagarkane in acreages also..


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> read hartleys report, AUT is not in any of the projects mentioned, you are absolutely incorrect..,
> 
> as i have said before, i have admired how you have traded before between them, but adi is not a one play stock like EKA an AUT..  sugarkane is the common theme between them but it no longer is relevant once other projects come into play..
> 
> if you have this opinion on AUT then you have to say right now BUY has to be fluctuating the same price percentages as ADI,  as ADI is also in wisteria which is close to being drilled, and later when yemen is drilled in  2009, are you going to draw the same differences to oilsearch?
> 
> AUT has a far greater exposure to sugarkane Nioka, and would attract a different investor with the taste for an "all in or nothing approach to the suagarkane"
> 
> If you think the one play stocks like AUT and EKA will now increase on the drill results form wisteria and later in yemen then your perhaps going to be miscalculating somewhat..
> 
> i agree whilst only one play was in motion the trading between the various shares was likely to be stable and allow for predictable outcomes,  imho the fluctuations on the ADI sp with other projects like yemen, indonesia and wisteria will make the valuations between the shares a lot harder..
> 
> good luck if you can still achieve the cross overs nioka, but i can assure you i cant get any value for all the ADI projects by investing in AUT or EKA.. they are different stocks with distinctly different risk profiles and exposures to the suagarkane in acreages also..




The facts you present I do not disagree with. That is why in a previous post I said that the situations are now NOT equal as I had seen them in the past. I did say that the balance had swung in favour of ADI and I am surprised that today the SP of AUT still exceeds that of ADI. AUT still has some value as insurance against failure by ADI in Yemen, Indonesia and Wisteria. If the price relationship changes so that ADI is 15 to 20% ahead of AUT I will again trade back a proportion to AUT.
 At the moment I am busy trading MCR for OZL, so far successfully, by selling MCR at todays top and OZL a buy at near the bottom for a 10% increase in the number held and some petty cash left over.


----------



## Agentm

next well for adi

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...Query=Y&name=WESTON+118-1&univDocNo=485242660

weston 1h

next to kennedy

great stuff, 2 in a row in texas and wisteria makes three..

like the chances of success now!


----------



## Agentm

map of the next well for ADI

its more or less heading south from where kennedy went north.. 

i would like to see more details on wisteria and this well come through, as well as how the 3d in yemen went and how indonesia is going..


----------



## Agentm

Wisteria-1 Prepares to Commence Drilling

Adelphi Energy Limited is pleased to advise that the Seadrill “West Atlas” drilling rig which will drill the Wisteria-1 exploration well in AC/P32 has arrived on location, jacked up and is preparing to spud. It is anticipated that the well will spud later today.

Wisteria-1 is being drilled in 97 metres of water to a planned depth of some 3,323 metres.

The well is designed to intersect the Puffin Formation reservoir just inside the pinch-out edge of the Puffin Sandstone and coincident with an amplitude anomaly. The well will then intersect the Montara and Plover sandstone targets on the crest of a separate culmination, at the Jurassic level, vertically below the Puffin play. It is expected that the Puffin sandstones will be intersected approximately 12 days after spud and the well will reach its planned depth within 3 weeks. The AC/P32 Permit is located in the Vulcan sub-basin off the coast of Western Australia, and is surrounded by a number of existing oil and gas production and discoveries including Jabiru, Challis, Cassini, Skua, Swift, Puffin and Montara.

The Wisteria prospect is well defined by 3D seismic and has the potential to hold more than 200mmbbls of recoverable oil. Potential reserves (P50) for the Puffin reservoir are estimated to be 174mmbbls while the Montara and Plover sandstone reservoirs have potential reserves (P50) of 21 and 12mmbbls respectively. 

Adelphi Energy is virtually free carried through the drilling of this well following farmout to Cosmo Energy.

Chris Hodge, Managing Director of Adelphi Energy commented that:

"This Wisteria prospect has a bit of everything – multiple targets, high upside and an excellent overall chance of success. Even a relatively small discovery of just 5mmbbls can be economic because of the closeness of the Wisteria prospect to the operator Coogee Resource’s nearby Montara facilities. 

We are also pleased to welcome Cosmo Energy of Japan to the joint venture - a move which endorses our strong technical view of the AC/P32 permit and allows us to be near fully carried through this very significant well”


----------



## Hatchy

Exciting times ahead, would I be wrong in saying that it's a good sign the Japanese are on board for wisteria?


----------



## barney

Interesting that BUY (Bounty), with their 10% interest in Wisteria (7.2 % costs) Sp has risen 30% today (2.6 million shares traded) ........  on the same news ADI has reported .......... Obviously some confidence being shown on the play ....

ADI up only 6% ........... Bit of hesitancy being shown, but that is to be expected considering the time frame we have been waiting.............. I think there will be a few more buyers stepping up to the plate soon ...... If/when this finally runs, it could be like a runaway train, or maybe that's just wishful thinking


----------



## Agentm

hey hatchy

for cosmo its not a company maker, but a good addition to their list of prospects.. for adi its a company maker if they larger targets are in play..

i believe the fact they are onbaord speaks for itself, they have a pretty stringent risk profile on these type of plays i hear..


----------



## Father Ted

I trust everyone is holding the faith down there. the UK is into a bank holiday weekend - and as usual for these events, its raining, the rail network is all but closed down, and clown cocked up in blowing up a couple of cooling towers next to the M1 motorway, so they have closed that for a while as well.

I suppose the only thing to do, is to get out a few tinnies and make the most of it.

There is obviously a lot going on over the winter / summer (whichever) and we should be seeing interesting things happen by Christmas.

regards

father ted


----------



## Hatchy

Hi M,
Yes, I would have thought the Japanese would have a stringent risk profile when it comes to foreign investment. If anyone does the research.... it'd be those guys. 

Surely we have a horizontal section going ahead this week over in texas and that'll probably show high pressures. 

Kennedy went too deep is what i've heard. Is that possible?

Hatchy


----------



## JOHAUD

May or may not be of interest,taken from the iii site.

  1) hey guys, i'm knew at this chat stuff. i'm one of the land owners pooled into the kowalik well and have lived her all my life. Here is some i on the spot info. TCE has 5 new stacked pad sights that are being bid on this week. there is a 7.5 inch production transport line being dug, as i type, across pooled property. it's there and they are going after it. infrastructure is also being performed to get product transported. 

2) hold on cowboy, i don,t know who psssst whom off. i'm not here for that. i just came from the ranch (pooled proterty) and the right of way has been cleared by johnson construction and pipe is being devilered monday -texas time! 

you guys want me off this message board. just state so. or ask me sight ? s 

3)i have to chuckle (laugh). i'm american but worse for you guys, texan. 1st of all, i missed spelled staked. sorry. let me explain some laungage. the geologist give the TCE well site supervisor a map of the next place/s to drill. the site supervisor goes to the land/property site and stakes/flags the site. (this is where the next drilling platform will be placed on) there has to be a heavy equipment type construction leveling/clearing of the land then a foundation pad built (with certain type and thickness of dirt material for an all weather work site) to hold the drilling rig, platform, housing, equipment and transportation vehicles. this is called a site pad/pad. It takes approximately 10 days to 2 weeks to get this site pad, service roads, water wells/access, fencing and entrance gates ready. TCE site manager has directed a construction site company (johnson construction) to bid (cost proposal) on the next site pads. there are 5 staked/flaged well sites as of august 21 nin this area by TCE. the next one on record is the weston 118. our neighbor, mr. opelia, is next in line. (the weston well has been named and recorded with texas railroad commission. i do not know what the opelia name will be) the reason why i know about this opelia is that my stepfather is signing a statement of land/property owner knowledge for TCE. This statement is a witness statement of property rights, boundaries, family land feuds ect. My family is not in the weston pool nor the opelia. the weston well is approximatly 4 miles south/southeast of the kowalik which is going to be a 1/2 mile or so (east/northeast) from the kennedy. this is on farm to market road 626 (fm626) east of the kennedy well at el oso, texas. if you get on google maps and ask for el oso, texas, you will see cr 171 and 626. (upper left 1/4 of the screen) this is where the kennedy well is. the weston family house is the house to the right of the 171/626 corner. to see the weston well site, pull out of map zoom and when 626 turns right/east, that makes the north boundary of the weston pool acreage. keep pulling out of zoom and you will see lenz in your upper right screen. keep following 626 north (up) to 2102 and go west (to the left). opelia property is on north side of 2102 at this entersection. keep going west (to the left) and you well see cr190 T-ing off northwest of 2102. zoom in st tight as google well let. the right hand corner of cr190 and fm2102 is where the kowalik well is!! This kowalik well is close to the northwest boundary of he sugarloaf field. kowalik well is horizontal southeast back towark el oso, the kennedy well. have fun with this. welcome to SOUTH TEXAS. o by the way, my family owns the texas longhorn steer named WOW. google (wow, texas longhorn steer) and see what else is big in texas. to my overseas friends, have a good day. hope this helps.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

Johaud .... that quote is on several boards. If we have absolute proof then each JV would rocket. We need photographic evidence. If 'i-on-spot' is a resident then ask him to take his digital camera for a walk.

Could someone ask 'i-on-spot' to join Advfn and post a few photos. 
Let us see a few notices of licence standing/posted on Sugarkane sites. If he is resident then he has the opportunity to spy!


----------



## Agentm

the clown is back i see..  

if tcei are puting in 5 pads it is a positive indication that the potential for a second drilling rig is being considered.  in live oak there are plenty of new pad sites noticed also.. 

we are told of 3 more wells for our jvp, which means there are potentially 2 more sites that TCEI is looking at with one of its partners..

Wisteria is now on its 4th day in on drilling, 8 days before it reaches the puffin sandstones

"Potential reserves (P50) for the Puffin reservoir are
estimated to be 174mmbbls"


yes please!!!


----------



## mick z

buzzbuzz100 said:


> Johaud .... that quote is on several boards. If we have absolute proof then each JV would rocket. We need photographic evidence. If 'i-on-spot' is a resident then ask him to take his digital camera for a walk.
> 
> Could someone ask 'i-on-spot' to join Advfn and post a few photos.
> Let us see a few notices of licence standing/posted on Sugarkane sites. If he is resident then he has the opportunity to spy!






so buzz you would like him to give you inside info on a public board, LOL.
ican't believe your asking, would you like my bank details to.


----------



## solomon

Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to where the share price might go?

What could it do with announcment of a clear win on kowliak?

What could it do with announcement of a win on wisteria?

I'm in the process of working out at what levels I will trade out (if at all)


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to where the share price might go?
> 
> What could it do with announcment of a clear win on kowliak?
> 
> What could it do with announcement of a win on wisteria?
> 
> I'm in the process of working out at what levels I will trade out (if at all)





wisteria and kowalik are potential company makers.. both plays are extremely good to an investor with the desire for high risk high reward profile imho..

places to start your research are adi presentation recently page 25 & 22

Conclusions

• Activity / Leverage / Diversity

• Sugarloaf – Chalk play in area is proven, $2.55 cps success case value

• Kennedy-1H oil saturation proved; test still in progress

• Kowalik -1H spudded - the first of up to 4 consecutive horizontal wells

• Wisteria-1 – Multi-target high impact near fully carried well; $2.61 cps success case value

• Yemen – 3D seismic is complete. Block 7 is Oil Search operated; world class with a 110mmbbls discovery within 10km of block 

• Indonesia – Well positioned to win a block in the upcoming bid round with pre-bid farmout already secured for a significant work program

………a very exciting year ahead.


http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/August 2008 - Investor Presentation.pdf


or the three recent broker reports....


stock analysis 

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Stock Analysis 24.06.08.pdf

hartleys

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys Broker Report - 27 June 2008 .pdf

strachan

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Strachan Corporate Report 9 July 2008_0.pdf

good luck to all holders..


----------



## solomon

Thanks AgentM, I wasn't aware of those recent reports. Between the recent reports and your comments I have more than enough to make an informed decision. If there is success at either I won't be selling at anywhere near the current price.


----------



## tarzanhey

Another new well Reckling

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...uery=Y&name=RECKLING+24-1&univDocNo=485247910


----------



## buzzbuzz100

*Blind faith?*

Having questioned the validity of two annonymous Texan posts I have been emailed and apparently identified as trashing posts. I do not wish to copy/paste the email. Perhaps Agentm could explain his reasoning. 
I continue with my large holding of EME shares.


Mick Z ... no thanks. I have no need of you bank account details. I am already very wealthy. Cash comes by being very cautious and checking facts.


----------



## Agentm

great news tarz

i will map it and post it a little later, but the program of drilling looks great to me..

i expect an update tomorrow on kowalik, and it would be an opportunity for the jvp to announce officially these wells to all their shareholders..


----------



## tarzanhey

Agentm said:


> great news tarz
> 
> i will map it and post it a little later, but the program of drilling looks great to me..
> 
> i expect an update tomorrow on kowalik, and it would be an opportunity for the jvp to announce officially these wells to all their shareholders..




Would be a great time to announce them I agree - however I think they may await the approval - Busy times ahead!


----------



## Agentm

wisteria is now 4 days in.. 

Kowalik must be drilling horizontal

next permit from TCEI is Reckling 1H


----------



## Hatchy

Isn't it interesting how people who blow their own trumpet seem to always choose nicknames that when you add "off" to the end it makes sense..... 

Buzz Buzz like the bee. 

"I'm very wealthy already" - well good for you buzz buzz - now have some positive input or .... off


----------



## Agentm

put them on ignore hatchy.. just click on their user name and then add them to your ignore list..   adi has plenty of things happening and thats where the discussions should be on the forum.. 

wisteria -  potential company maker
sugarkane - potential company maker
indonesia
yemen - “Botten said Oil Search would refocus on the organic growth program for its remaining MENA assets (i.e. Block 3 and 7), and each licence there has substantial upside potential, prompting further evaluation and de-risking.”


----------



## Hatchy

Thanks Agent,
I didn't know about that ignore function, clicking on their name didn't bring it up, but through the CP I was able to work it out. 

I would like to hear if yemen is just going to sit in the wings until late next year when the current wells have been done with, or will they try to tackle it also at the same time. 

I can see ADI has a fair bit on it's plate, but it's not an operator on any of the current prospects is it?

Just have to patiently wait. 

Hatchy


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> Thanks Agent,
> I didn't know about that ignore function, clicking on their name didn't bring it up, but through the CP I was able to work it out.
> 
> I would like to hear if yemen is just going to sit in the wings until late next year when the current wells have been done with, or will they try to tackle it also at the same time.
> 
> I can see ADI has a fair bit on it's plate, but it's not an operator on any of the current prospects is it?
> 
> Just have to patiently wait.
> 
> Hatchy





ADI is not operator in texas but they have their people on the ground there and all the shareholders interests are closely watched.. cant speak for the other jvp's but i do believe both ADI and AUT are doing a lot of work there to make sure things happen smoothly


yemen has a little while to go, the 3d's are to be reporocessed, and oilsearch is the operator there, they have a lot of experience in the M.E.  so imho adi would not be as effective there as an operator as oilsearch is.. remember that oilsearch divested most of their leases except a few, and bloc k 7 is one of them.. theres a lot of upside in there imho.. wait a while for the 3d's


indonesia i believe will be ADI's first operation where they will be the operator if the bidding goes well.. so something to look forward to there..

wisteria is in the timor sea, and no one would expect anyone other than coogee to be operator there.. they have the expertise, the planning and the right stuff to complete the work they are doing, very impressive outfit..


----------



## estseon

That's very interesting (about ADI having people on the ground).

I doubt that EME has anyone to send out there (to Texas) although Tom Kelly and Frank Brophy quite possibly pay visits. Even the new FD is non exec.


----------



## sam76

Mate, that's pretty childish posting up pm's like that.

Doesn't give any support to your argument.

Keep PM's to PM's please.


----------



## mick z

i don't understand what your trying to achieve here buzz..... why would you want to post a private email ? that is between you and agentm its only making you look worse, now no one will trust YOU including your uk friends.

no wonder the Texans wont post here any more, that's two for two now buzz.

lighten up buzz.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

*Emails from Agentm*

I make it quite clear that those emails came unsolicited. I question who is the child.
If members wish to state their viewpoint, why do so in a menacing manner?


----------



## tomcat

3 more permits were submitted by Texas Crude for Karnes last night:

Rudolph
Gonzalez
Albert Esse Heirs

add this Weston and Recklin and there is definately something afoot in Texas.

Looking forward to seeing Agents map now.

Its all happening!! Some very interesting wells coming up!!


----------



## estseon

tomcat

over on Block A there is a new application for Kunde 4 (submitted 19th) as well. That is a total of 6 within a week. What is happening?


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> tomcat
> 
> over on Block A there is a new application for Kunde 4 (submitted 19th) as well. That is a total of 6 within a week. What is happening?





the number of permits in block A would indicate 12 months of drilling with one rig imho, if you managed to complete each one in 60 days, which we have not seen on any well in the sugarkane thus far..  i think the possibility of two or more rigs for TCEI in the near term is more than likely.. look forward to any announcements on that front from the jvp..

there is now no doubt that TCEI is embarking on an extensive exploration program into the acreages.. remember the minimum TCEI expects is 2500 bopd on wells completed into regions with natural fractures..


----------



## red rats

Buzz,

all this is not helping. I very much value agentm's input on the ADVFN EME BB. It would be a real shame if bad blood were to spoil this relationship.

Emails should never be posted on a BB unless both parties agree, c'mon mate you know this.

Ratty


----------



## Agentm

the 3 permits TCEI put through are on the map i will post here..

interestingly they are quite long completions , gonzales 1h is listed for over 6000 feet and  the Albert Esse Heirs 1h  is listed for a 7083 foot horizontal..

wisteria is now at 1670 meters


----------



## Gspot

And with all this action, the sp drops 13% today, though on small vol. Would love to know the reasons for getting out now.


----------



## Hatchy

I agree, there's very few reasons for getting out now - other than people just needing the cash. They might have bought in at 32c and are just taking a profit today to cover some other venture. Who knows, it's not related to prospects though - you'd see far higher volumes.


----------



## solomon

I was just reading the AUT progress report and encountered something that I either missed in the ADi report or wasn't in the ADI report

The Kennedy #1H well  ....  *The Operator is currently installing a production facility and the well will be tied to a nearby gas transmission line.*

Was anyone else aware of this?

I know Kennedy was producing small amounts of gas, but perhaps this well is more positive than anyone is letting on.


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> I was just reading the AUT progress report and encountered something that I either missed in the ADi report or wasn't in the ADI report
> 
> The Kennedy #1H well  ....  *The Operator is currently installing a production facility and the well will be tied to a nearby gas transmission line.*
> 
> Was anyone else aware of this?
> 
> I know Kennedy was producing small amounts of gas, but perhaps this well is more positive than anyone is letting on.






the production facility was put in to basically separate the condensate from the  gas.. it means only gas is being fed into the pipeline and the condensate is being trucked away from the site..

essentially ADI is a producer, but the well is producing at very marginal rates.   the upside is that there is a return in revenue for the wells completion right now. Althouhg there is no plan to frac the well immeidately throughout the entire horizontal completion, the well is not optimally completed for chalks production, it was never intended to cement the casing in kennedy, but circumstances during the drilling obviously required this to be done..  

kennedy 1h demonstrates the chalks formation in our acreages are able to produce, which is why there is a sudden intense drilling exploration program in place by TCEI..   the next wells will be completed optimally, with open hole completions and slotted liners to get maximum connectivity to the overpressurised formation.. if you read the EME report on baker 1 and how complicated the completion is there.. once that well is cleaned up i am sure the marginal rates so far reported will be upgraded to staggering rates of production..

kowalik is now on a lot of peoples  radars...   any indications there of formation wanting to flow will bring a lot of immeidate reaction to the buy side on adi imho..


----------



## solomon

Agentm said:


> kowalik is now on a lot of peoples  radars...   any indications there of formation wanting to flow will bring a lot of immeidate reaction to the buy side on adi imho..




I hope it is on people's radars AgentM because it wasn't on their buy list's today. But I guess I can't complain because I topped up today and if Kowliak or Wisteria turn out well (excuse the pun) then today was a great day for me.

Best of luck to all holders.


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> I hope it is on people's radars AgentM because it wasn't on their buy list's today. But I guess I can't complain because I topped up today and if Kowliak or Wisteria turn out well (excuse the pun) then today was a great day for me.
> 
> Best of luck to all holders.





i dont think anyone can be critical of anyone buying a share at these prices..

i only wish i had more cash myself.. 

i know its on many peoples radars.. there are a great deal who have not the courage to venture in and are expecting cheap shares should any positive signs come through,, but imho there wont be much stock on offer nad the share will remain tighly held.. lets see if firstly we get those positive signs and secondly if any volumes will be available for the many who are waiting..

lets see if your decision to add early before the news is better than waiting..

we had this debate with prawn aerlier about waiting for announcements and finding the correct timings.. but imho they are fairly hard to pick..

cheers..


----------



## Hatchy

I know i'll be topping up a bit more tomorrow if the price remains right. I wish i'd applied for more in the offer seeing as it was undersubscribed. 

Bring on the black gold.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

*Rights Issue 1st Sept.*

RIGHTS ISSUE – PLACEMENT OF SHORTFALL SHARES
Adelphi Energy Limited (Company) is pleased to announce that it has placed a total of
3,695,000 shortfall shares resulting from the recent rights issue to exempt investors under
section 708 of the Corporations Act. This placement brings the total funds raised from the
rights issue to approximately $4.3 million, with the total issued capital of the Company
increasing to 119,998,061 shares.
The Directors reserve the right to place the remaining balance of the rights issue shortfall
shares (some 4.3 million shares) as set out in the Offer Document dated 15 July 2008.


----------



## Agentm

RIGHTS ISSUE – PLACEMENT OF SHORTFALL SHARES
Adelphi Energy Limited (Company) is pleased to announce that it has placed a total of 3,695,000 shortfall shares resulting from the recent rights issue to exempt investors under section 708 of the Corporations Act. This placement brings the total funds raised from the rights issue to approximately $4.3 million, with the total issued capital of the Company increasing to 119,998,061 shares.

The Directors reserve the right to place the remaining balance of the rights issue shortfall shares (some 4.3 million shares) as set out in the Offer Document dated 15 July 2008.


they are still slogging away with the rights issue at ADI.. tough job,  but up from the mid month announcement:

Adelphi Energy Limited (Company) confirms that the shortfall from the rights issue of shares announced by the Company on 15 July 2008, was 7,969,353 shares. This represents a take-up of approximately 55.1%, with total proceeds of some $3.13 million.



$3.13 mill then ..

$4.3 mill now 

$5.7 mill was the total available to the market on this issue.. with the directors working hard still to get their placement away by the looks..


----------



## Agentm

Via ASX Online
WISTERIA-1 DRILLING UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") advises that the operation at the Wisteria-1 well at 1800 hours WST on 31 August, 2008 was drilling ahead in 311mm hole at measured depth of 2,019 metres. Since our last report, the well set 340mm casing to a depth of 1,670 metres and has drilled through the first of the three targets, the Puffin Formation, without encountering any reservoir quality sandstones or significant hydrocarbon shows. The well will now drill ahead in 311mm hole to intersect the Jurassic Montara and Plover sandstone targets at a deeper level. Hydrocarbon prospectivity of the Montara and
Plover targets is geologically independent of the Puffin Formation target and, if oil is present, has the potential to contain significant reserves of 21 - 32mmbbls (P50). The Montara sandstone is the same reservoir that contains producible oil and gas at the nearby Montara field which is currently under development by Coogee resources, the Operator of Wisteria-1.
The total depth of the well is estimated to be 3,323 metres.
The AC/P32 Permit is located in the Vulcan sub-basin off the coast of Western Australia, and is surrounded by a number of existing oil and gas production and discoveries including Jabiru, Challis, Cassini, Skua, Swift, Puffin and Montara.

Adelphi is virtually free carried through the drilling of this well following farmout to Cosmo Energy.

Commenting on the result of the well so far, the Managing Director of Adelphi Energy Chris Hodge stated 

"the lack of development of the Puffin sandstone is a disappointment and suggests that the zero edge of the stratigraphic play is located further to the west than expected. Importantly however, Wisteria is a multi-target prospect and the Montara and Plover sandstones both represent excellent deeper targets which are geologically independent of the Puffin. These sandstones are expected to be present within a welldefined  tilted fault block - a proven play type the Vulcan sub-Basin"


----------



## Hatchy

So the lottery didn't come in over the weekend - it was probably only a short chance to hit the big payload anyway. 

Bring on some news from Texas - that's what we want to hear.


----------



## Agentm

the POS on the puffin sandstone was 5% from reports i have read..  the well is practically free carry.. there are 2 further targets in the wisteria well..



there is a new permit in dewitt county for conocophillips, maraldo 1.. i maintain a stance in this share this exploration continues


there has been strong support by the Top 20 shareholders of late, with some increasing their holdings by as much as  1 million shares in the last weeks.. i appreciate their support..

back to  waiting........


----------



## pistol72

here is a weekly chart(hoping)
looks to be forming a decending triangle,more often than not a continuation of primary trend, a breakout to the upside could produce a great result,although there seems to be a fair bit of resistance @.50.solid support at .28.
any other technical opinions out there?
cheers P


----------



## Agentm

cant get the chart stuff like others do..  your obviously getting the hang of it..

i tend to think the share will trend up or down not for any other reason than on the new flows..  with 4 wells in a row in texas there wont be a mass exit on adi any time soon imho..  the shareholders are keeping the shares and they are hard to get right now in any large numbers..   

kowalik is ready to go on its lateral i believe.. good luck to all on this lateral..


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> cant get the chart stuff like others do..




With ADI the chart is past history and only reflects the news, or the lack of it, at the time. ADI has not been a traders stock for some time and is not influenced by traders definition as relating to charts. Forget the chart, watch the news or if possible anticipate the news. If anyone is in a better position to get the news as it happens than readers of agentm's posts I'd like to find them. In the meantime I'm happy to rely on the info from this thread. No matter how good the info is, the results may or may not follow our hopes but to use a chart to promote the future seems a waste of time to me.


----------



## solomon

I was pleased to see that the share price didn't cave in too bad after the Wisteria news today. It looks like the selling is coming from someone who bought in the share offer at .32, cause the price seems like it doesn't want to go under .32. Who would sell this one at a loss at the moment?

If that is the case then it supports Agentm's theory that it is hard to get hold of shares in any volume, even if the price has fallen away a bit.

I didn't buy more today because the Wisteria puffin announcement spooked me a little. Lets hope for some more good news soon.


----------



## estseon

EME estimated the time to complete the lateral at 40-60 days. The estimate for the pilot hole was 30 days. It spudded on 18th July and reached TD on 12th August. They seem to have spent 3 weeks (all but) logging, plugging back etc. That work did not feature in the EME timetable. However, if they now get on with it and don't encounter problems that they can't solve quickly. the lateral  should be completed by the end of next month. In the general scheme of things (such as the time we have waited to date) that isn't too much more to wait. I'm not quite clear what the SPs of either EME or ADI reflect but there seems to be little linkage with potential reserves or earnings at the moment. There's still the chance of it giving a new meaning to "Happy Christmas".


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> EME estimated the time to complete the lateral at 40-60 days. The estimate for the pilot hole was 30 days. It spudded on 18th July and reached TD on 12th August. They seem to have spent 3 weeks (all but) logging, plugging back etc. That work did not feature in the EME timetable. However, if they now get on with it and don't encounter problems that they can't solve quickly. the lateral  should be completed by the end of next month. In the general scheme of things (such as the time we have waited to date) that isn't too much more to wait. I'm not quite clear what the SPs of either EME or ADI reflect but there seems to be little linkage with potential reserves or earnings at the moment. There's still the chance of it giving a new meaning to "Happy Christmas".





COP have yet to have completed a well in one go.. baker 1 and kunde 3 were both drilled 3 times to completion..  so plenty of laterals there.. how many are connected in baker is unknown, and we are aware of only one completion in kunde 3, so the other laterals are lost there obviously..

Baker 2 is somewhere in the drilling phase, whether its actually drilling a lateral or not is conjecture.  COP have the ability to drill a well and spend 4 months on it just to complete  a single  lateral or in the case of baker 1 (with a  half completed lateral)..  in both instances of kunde 3 and baker 1, the operator has not fully explored and completed the wells for optimum production.. in fact COP have yet to put any of these wells on production that are drilled..

*Kunde 2 (vertical)
Baker 1H
Bordovsky 1H
Butler 1 (vertical)
Hooks 1H*


Geosouthern have drilled two Dual Laterals about 13000 feet completions
both of which are not on production

*Migura
Buchhorn*

*Wells in the permit stage not drilled

Live Oak

Marlene Olsen (vertical) Conocphillips
Kunde 4H  Conocophillips

Karnes (all in our acreages)

Reckling 1H
Gonzales 1H
Rudolph 1H
Weston 1H
Albert Hesse heirs 1H

Karnes (outside our acreages)

Drees 1H (meridian)

De witt county

Koopman (vertical) Conocophillips
Maraldo (vertical) Conocophillips*


Wells completed

*Kunde 1  (on production)
Kunde 3  (on production test???)*
*Sugarloaf 1  (shut in)
Kennedy 1H (on production)*

Wells Drilling

*Kowalik 1H
Baker 2*


You cant just view this sugarkane play as a smaller 20,000 acre play and ignore the acreages near by and further afield.. i see a whole lot more and believe the presentations that say its a regional play, that is stratographic, and that it far exceeds 200,000 acres..

all imho and dyor


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> You cant just view this sugarkane play as a smaller 20,000 acre play and ignore the acreages near by and further afield.. i see a whole lot more and believe the presentations that say its a regional play, that is stratographic, and that it far exceeds 200,000 acres..
> all imho and dyor




 This fact is the reason that I use to validate my relative valuations between ADI and AUT. The groundhog seems to have infiltrated the boundaries of all the sugarkane play. I wish one of the gun toting Texans would hunt him down and let the production begin.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> This fact is the reason that I use to validate my relative valuations between ADI and AUT. The groundhog seems to have infiltrated the boundaries of all the sugarkane play. I wish one of the gun toting Texans would hunt him down and let the production begin.




your relative valuations must also take into consideration that even a successful chalks operator like meridian wont drill in karnes county unless it has 50% farmed out.. and AUT has acreages up to 80% in its own right.. is not an operator with any chalks experience, and that ownership ratio requires a lot of cash to pay for the leases and a lot more for each and every well thats drilled in those acreages, and we have yet to see any evidence of AUT  acreages having a well drilled and producing from the sugarkane..  the original  Sugarloaf  AMI jvp that we are in as a group is the only acrages i know that was hard fought for. and it has got gas shows and production from the chalks. imho AUT needs to valued with that in mind, and also the risks taken into consideration.. its got one play only.. ADI has many irons in the fire.. and many in the future coming through also.. i maintain that ADI and AUt can never be compared they are completely seperate companies with different cash flows, different cash requirements on their leases and completely different projects and futures.. 

but regionally in texas , the factors that are preventing completions and  preventing production from wells are dependant on how good you were at securing acreages in those regions..  regions in east karnes and in dewitt have lots of acreages to still be secured.. and we see no wells there producing in those regions at all, just wells drilled and then shut in with no comment from anyone..

plenty of leases not secured, and a lot coming back up for a second time looking for a partnership that may be interested in drilling their acres..  the region is having a land grab, thats for sure, and the same regions residents are also preventing successful drilling of acreages due to pockects of landowners not signing up.. 

it can be tough for an operator trying to secure acreages in blocks with the aim of all acreages participating with eachother..   TCEI have been and still continueto do so, working with and in oppsoition to a whole group of land brokers doing the same representing their various interested entities..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well after AgentM pointed out AUTs presentation is hugely bullish.
Commentry on the Sugarloaf leases that ADI has interest in are the best indication yet that this area will become a huge producing area and a company maker for ADI.
Mad to sell now but hey each to there own !


----------



## Agentm

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT KOWALIK #1H
Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations at the Kowalik #1H well within the Sugarloaf AMI, which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field.
Kowalik #1H
Aurora has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that as of 06:00hrs 02/09/08 (US CST) the production casing has been run and cemented at a measured depth of 11,861 ft. The preparations and rig up on surface for the reservoir section has also been completed and the drilling assembly was being run in the hole to commence drilling the final build section into the target chalk. The horizontal section is targeting the upper pay interval that has been reported as successfully producing gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage.


yesterday AUT presented at the oil and gas conference..







AUT - Value Proposition
• Large net acreage position on giant multi Tcfe resource
• 8 recent well penetrations in Sugarkane field all observing hydrocarbons –
including step out Kowalik #1H
• *Appraisal & development now – NOT exploration*• Near term producer with imminent growth
• Long life assets with ongoing development potential
• Premiums paid on recent transactions for analogous US onshore
unconventional gas plays of similar maturity
*THE EXISTENCE OF THE FIELD IS ESTABLISHED.*
CURRENT PHASE WILL DEMONSTRATE VALUE POTENTIAL.


----------



## tomcat

Good oil conference presentation is out...

3 weeks to drill the lateral at Kowalik...

Closing in on secondary targets at Wisteria


----------



## Agentm

next well up for conocophillips

olsen baker

getting busy for Conocophillisp and TCEI..  

Meridian will be drilling Drees in a very short time also introducing the 4th participant to join Geosouthern Conocophillips and TCEI


----------



## estseon

Useful map, agentm.

Do you have any feel for which of the new permits will be drilled next?

Kowalik appears to be a little away from the new cluster.


----------



## Agentm

somehow i see gonzales and reckling are out of view..

they are there. a bit north and east..

this map may explain it regionally..  from meeks to hooks..  60 miles or 100 km..

not a bad size field.. if its all one play!


----------



## nioka

The wisteria report today hasn't helped the ADI SP. The second targer has shown to be a "duster". Two out of three targets dry. One more to go so there is hope but ADI's future seems to be still reliant on Sugarloaf and the hope of the elephants stamping their mark on that area. Groundhogs still rule.


----------



## mick z

nioka said:


> The wisteria report today hasn't helped the ADI SP. The second targer has shown to be a "duster". Two out of three targets dry. One more to go so there is hope but ADI's future seems to be still reliant on Sugarloaf and the hope of the elephants stamping their mark on that area. Groundhogs still rule.




hey nioka,

              yeh it's bad luck with the second target, still one more to go.
i for one am happy with the sp conpared to buy nwe, i also managed to pick up a few more this morn at 30c.

mick


----------



## Hatchy

I think there's been a bit too much hype around Wisteria - there's a better chance that it will turn up dry that it will produce any oil at this stage. 
ADI has produced yet another dud here, but it was only a lottery ticket anyway. 

Texas is where all eyes should be - the neighbours are producing oil. What we need is a properly drilled well, not a botch up like kennedy. 

Get in there and drill some oil!


----------



## Agentm

hatchy

early days at kowalik..  the well is in a position now where it can be hooked up to the pipeline.. and the interest is now is seeing this well completed and wirelined and up and running as soon as possible.. 

the 5 permits will be approved by the time kowalik is finished, and at some stage in the near future the next well site will become evident..

extremely interested in the operations on the ground at the moment myself, and looking forward to how the next few weeks pan out..

i am not changing my position on this at all.. holding long..


----------



## solomon

I've been surprised by the relative weakness of ADI vs AUT at the moment. Does anyone have an explanation? My only guess is that a bit of hot money went into ADI for Wisteria and as the first 2 targets are dry it is flowing out.


----------



## nioka

solomon said:


> I've been surprised by the relative weakness of ADI vs AUT at the moment. Does anyone have an explanation? My only guess is that a bit of hot money went into ADI for Wisteria and as the first 2 targets are dry it is flowing out.



 There is almost no volume in the trades, not enough to do cross trading so overall price is not a worry. The daily price is of no importance unless you are buying or selling so it represents a good buying opportunity, however by now most holders are in for the long haul regardless. The true believers and those with a liking for groundhogs.


----------



## sam76

This is my lame attempt at humour over the whole scenario 

lame lame lame lame lame lame attempt.

I apologise


----------



## nioka

sam76 said:


> This is my lame attempt at humour over the whole scenario
> 
> lame lame lame lame lame lame attempt.
> 
> I apologise



 You had better do a little editing. I certainly don't deserve equal billing with Agent. He is the news editor I'm just the critic that only deserves a small column on the back page. Apart from that no apologies necessary.


----------



## sam76

Ok mate, I've included you with the rest of us.

Hope you don't mind equal billing with the likes of myself


----------



## nioka

sam76 said:


> Ok mate, I've included you with the rest of us.
> 
> Hope you don't mind equal billing with the likes of myself



That's better I'll still claim a column on the back page as the critic. Anyone can criticise but none of us come anywhere near Agent for research or info regarding ADI. I'm sure even the ADI staff tune in to find out what is happening.


----------



## blues

Nice update from ADI today. Increasing gas and even some minor flares. Hopefully after a long wait things are finally going to turn and things are beginning to look up. Nice comment from Chris as well.

Cheers.


----------



## Lucky_Country

2 weeks to go until drilling is finished then we may get some kind of confirmation on reserve estimates and flow rates.
Looking good imo!


----------



## Agentm

the well is going extremely smoothly from all appearances..

the gas flaring has not been experienced in any well in our acreages, sugarloaf 1 only flared after an extensive frac, as did kennedy.. but during the drilling your not trying to do anything but counter the pressures down there an not lose circulation with heavy muds in the hole, any flaring from these chalks is to be viewed as extremely positive. which is how i view it..

1500 feet completed and the flaring has only just commenced in the last 100 feet.. there could be more news to follow imho..

10 September 2008
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

KOWALIK-1H UPDATE

Adelphi Energy ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide an update on operations at the Kowalik- 1H well which is located in the Sugarloaf AMI.

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that as at 6am Texas time on 9 September 2008 the well was drilling ahead in near horizontal hole within the target upper part of the Austin Chalk at a measured depth of 13.364 feet.

Approximately 1,500 feet of horizontal hole has now been drilled with total gas recorded in the range 300 to 700 units – up from a background of approximately 200 units.

Intermittent minor gas flares were present over the last approximately 100 feet of drilling. The horizontal section to be drilled is planned to be 6,000 feet in length and is targeting the upper pay interval that has been reported as successfully producing gas and condensate in three wells in adjacent acreage.

The Joint Venture is working towards this being the first in a continuous sequence of 4 wells.

Commenting on the progress of the Kowalik well, Chris Hodge the Managing Director of Adelphi advised that “a number of measures have been put in place to ensure that the horizontal section is drilled in the prospective upper part of the Austin Chalk; these include underbalanced drilling, new directional drilling equipment and additional logs to aid geosteering. These measures have been effective and the well is progressing according to plan. The first signs of flares while drilling are also encouraging. Based on progress to date, the well will take approximately 2 more weeks to complete drilling the horizontal section."


----------



## Hatchy

So in the next two weeks we should find out about Kowalik and Wisteria. Very interesting news ahead I would imagine.


----------



## Agentm

nioka

i am very interested in how AUT develops..

with their acreages i have yet to see an accurate map to assess their land position, and its important to me to make a decision on this play and whether to invest in AUT as this project runs..  i know they say they have a lot of acreages, but is it continious? and where is it? why the secrecy. why maps with no boundaries and definitions?   the jvp is clearly stating the location of the 23000 acres it now has.. 

i am very curious why yesterdays announcement did not create more interest in the jvp, and to see AUT neutral at the end of the day worried me a lot.

the news of the flaring was excellent news, i am relieved as any holder would be to know the formation is trying to flow whilst drilling. and with the massive mudweights they need to use in these wells to drill them, 

"The first signs of flares while drilling are also encouraging"

great prices for entry into adi at this point, with confirmation of flowing hydrocarbons from the formation and COP about to embark on a massive drilling operation..  would be buying if i could, but definately not selling for a long time now..

good luck to those selling out now, and best of luck to anyone getting in or adding..


----------



## fflintoff

*TCEI JV Block A # 4 well reaches total depth*

RNS Number : 2001D
Empyrean Energy PLC
11 September 2008



11th September 2008

Empyrean Energy PLC 

("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA

TCEI JV Block A # 4 well reaches total depth 

Encouraging gas observations and flares over more than 1500 feet

Operator preparing the well for setting production casing followed by testing




Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the USA, is pleased to provide the following update on operations at Block A within the Sugarloaf Prospect:

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc that the TCEI JV Block A #4 horizontal well has reached a total measured depth of 15,084 feet. Current operations are circulating gas out of the drilling fluid in preparation to run production casing. The well will then be tested. 

During drilling, high gas readings and flares have prompted the operator to call total depth earlier than anticipated as they believe the gas observations from an interval of more than 1500 ft in length suggest sufficient encouragement to provide for a good commercial outcome. The early total depth has also meant that this well has been drilled under the budgeted cost.

Multiple gas readings in excess of 500 units (background gas approximately 50 units) and multiple flares measuring over 20 feet in height were observed during drilling of the 1500 ft interval.

Further updates will be provided as significant developments occur. 




Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest in this well.




Commenting today, Empyrean executive director Tom Kelly stated "The gas readings and flares provide great encouragement for Empyrean on this well. We look forward to the testing in due course."


----------



## Metron

eopiela said:


> Here is another picture, taken from our property, that shows the rig and the land around.  The rig is in an overgrown wooded area across FM 2102 from our property.




Hi eopiela,

How did you guys (and the drilling rig) hold up during Hurricane Ike?

Was your area hit hard?


----------



## Agentm

wisteria is finally over.. and will be a P&A

it was free carry so it should have no impact on the sp thankfully.

metron, if it of any help, there was no impact on the karnes county from ike, they had hundreds of trucks and disaster crews on the highways there waiting in massive convoys to move in to assist in the aftermath,  many good frinds of mine in houston are without power and gas and there are areas very much devistated by ike. unfortunately, despite the warnings, there was loss of life in texas as a result of ike. 

they shut down kowalik rig, and all rigs there did the same, but they did not need to lay them down at all, they returned on saturday night to fire up the operations again..

hope it helps.


----------



## fflintoff

*Wisteria-1 disappoints Coogee*

“Wisteria-1 disappoints Coogee

By Upstream staff 


Coogee Resources is set to plug and abandon the Wisteria-1 well in the Timor Sea off north-west Australia in licence AC/P32 after unveiling minor gas but no significant hydrocarbon shows. 

The well reached a final depth of 3281 metres today and Coogee is preparing to run wireline logs and a checkshot survey. These will be used to assess the well results and assist in the forward seismic mapping and evaluation of the permit. 

Joint venture partner Norwest Energy (via Westranch) recently said the prospect had the potential to hold more than 200 million barrels of recoverable oil. 

Coogee operates the AC/P32 permit with a 22.5% stake, with partners Westranch on 15%, Adelphi Energy on 10%, Bounty Oil & Gas with 10%, Bharat Petroleum Holding on 20% and Cosmo Energy Exploration & Development on 22.5%. “


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, 16 September, 2008, 05:57 GMT  | last updated: Tuesday, 16 September, 2008, 06:00 GMT


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article163200.ece


----------



## Hatchy

You've got to be sad on a day like today, don't you? Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, sometimes you hide under the table.


----------



## nioka

Hatchy said:


> You've got to be sad on a day like today, don't you? Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, sometimes you hide under the table.



Why the sad bit as far as ADI is concerned. The well is progressing. The project is continuing. Nothing has changed except a minor decrease in value today. That only has a bad effect on sellers. Anyone holding ADI for any time is looking past this week and next. The question with ADI is not what is happening to merchant banks or property values. The question is " will the elephant trumpet" If it does little else matters.


----------



## Metron

KOWALIK-1H UPDATE 

Adelphi Energy (Adelphi) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations 
at the Kowalik -1H well within the Sugarloaf AMI. 

Kowalik-1H 

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that on 12 
September 2008 the rig suspended operations in preparation for Hurricane Ike. The rig 
was also evacuated as a precaution.  Adelphi has been informed that the rig sustained 
no damage from the hurricane and drilling operations recommenced on 14 September 
2008.  

Since the last operational update drilling of the horizontal section of Kowalik -1H within 
the target Austin Chalk has continued and as of 6am Texas time on 16 September 2008 
the well had reached a measured depth of 13,835 feet.  Following minor changes in the 
rig configuration to more accurately measure gas readings, TCEI have advised an 
increase in background values to 1,000 - 1,300 units.  Gas flares have been observed of a 
more sustained and substantial nature whilst drilling during the last week and a significant 
flare occurred following a wiper trip.   

Whilst encouraging, the commercial significance of these gas shows and flares will not 
be known until the well has been flow tested. 

The horizontal section is targeting the upper pay interval that has been reported as 
successfully producing gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage.   

The Joint Venture is working towards this being the first in a continuous sequence of 4 
wells and preparations are presently underway for the next well location. 



Flow Baby, Flow....


----------



## Agentm

these wells flow without fractures, right now this one is kicking and flaring and doing everything you want a chalks well to do..

its a great report, and continious episodes of gas shows and flares is what your drilling for..


----------



## Agentm

from the uk

this is comment from tom kelly at eme..

worth a read

tonudiki - 17 Sep'08 - 07:58 - 38837 of 38851

Great news on more and bigger flares, but I am getting confused as to just what "background gas" actually means in these Kowalik reports. 

So was I, but explained via email by Tom as follows, with permission to pass on.

“The previous reports had given the lower background gas levels prior to entering the target zone to indicate the significance of the increased levels and accurately report the observations.

This week’s report is accurate – in that the gas levels have now risen to 1000-1400 units – whether they are now called background gas levels or gas levels is irrelevant – they have been in that higher range for a few days now. In any case changes had been made to the way the readings are now being taken as opposed to before – and we are now in the target zone ( so we expect increased levels). The other significant thing is the flares.

Our interpretation is that the readings are significantly positive.”


----------



## solomon

Hey can someone fill in the timetable for me?

When the drilling gets to depth (I'm thinking 4-5 days max) how long to do the wireline logs and flow test?

How long from here until a confirmation of success or failure?

Then how long until (if successful) the well goes into production?

thanks

PS I appreciate the last post from Tom Kelly AgentM


----------



## Agentm

firstly, the well is hooked up already, so it can produce as soon as its completed.

once the well is completed in drilling, and it wont be 5 days at all,  its then cleaned up and wirelined, (some wells may be overpressurized so clean up and putting in the casing may be slow, so timings are not possible to estimate).. all wells have been extremely complex and hard to complete, if kowalik reaches TD it will be the first open hole completion to go to TD..

once the well is ready the rig will move off, there will be a workover rig put over the well and the well will be completed for production by the workover rig..

the drilling rig will move to the next location and drill away whilst kowalik is finished for production, this process will go on for 4 completions..

you cannot estimate the timings on these formations.. at baker 2 they didnt even get half way.. and they have a hell of a job ahead of them right now to finish that well.. but imho they have it in hand..  dont rely on timings on anything,, add a week, add a week more and throw in a few for good measure..


----------



## solomon

Agentm said:


> you cannot estimate the timings on these formations.. at baker 2 they didnt even get half way.. and they have a hell of a job ahead of them right now to finish that well.. but imho they have it in hand..  dont rely on timings on anything,, add a week, add a week more and throw in a few for good measure..




Thanks AgentM, I was thinking we would know a little sooner, I'll get less excited and grow some more patience.


----------



## Agentm

solomon

the well is showing all the signs of becoming a producer, no one i know is saying any different, but the flow rates are yet to be revealed.. the well is 100 times more active than kennedy ever was, and with the way they completed that kennedy well which was not optimal in any way, yet it still produces!  

the kowalik well will be completed optimally, open hole and slotted liner, and will be delivering connectivity to the formation in the best possible manner.

timings are always very tricky,, if i mention timings here, my posts get reproduced on another bb in the uk, then if its wrong, if things change, tools get stuck or packers fail ,or anything happens in the well in texas, these uk investors spit chips and become hostile at me.. its remarkable how they behave.. but i hope everyone understands its all imho and dyor.. things change every day and week in the overall operations and in the strategy by the operators on the sugarkane, they themselves are staggered how big this unconventional play has become, in a few months ther will be announcements imho that will clarify what i am saying, but today its all about a 4 well program in karnes county as far as i am concerned..

i will give you kennedys timings, and you can see what i mean..

10 days to drill a lateral..  now we are 2 weeks at least into the lateral already and not any cause for panic, i expected this myself. if the formation is kicking then you slow down the drill, you back off..  expect  things to be slower..

allow 3- 5 days at least to wireline.(if you can).

allow 2 days to run a liner/casing. (impossible to do in these formations thus far).  in kennedy it took many many trips, and many weeks. (baker 2 is trying to run one now, i think they have a long way to go and have been at it for some time already)


now if the drilling hits a particularily nasty frac, and they lose circulation, lose tools, and cant get out, you can have all sorts of problems and be stuck on the hole, and have to kill it to get out (as in baker 1) and you could be faced with massive tool costs and also massive costs to bring in specialised workover units to try be able to work the well and deal with the massive pressure and temperatures coming at you. this can take months and cost would be very high, but once you overcome that, your also likely to be sitting on a well that once flowing will be paying off the entire operations in days to weeks.. (baker 1 and 2) theres upside to any downside in some cases!


workover, can take a few weeks to prepare the well for production.. you have all sort of testing to do.. but there would be flow tests conducted on the wells integrity itself, on the flow, and choke sizes adjusted and all sorts of testing done to get maximum understandings on the formation.. and reports made to the shareholders then on th flow rates etc....


practically every day something goes wrong on these wells, things are in a constant state of reaction and action.. we are talking massive pressures and temperatures, and performing an almost impossible task or drilling horizontally into a formation and geosteering your way up and down to try and locate and direct a drill with a 8 3/4" drill bit a mile horizontally..

i know everyone loves to find a scapegoat or criticise the management of ADI or TCEI on the delays and timings,, but imho its completely irrelevant..

if the well is drilled on time, then you have to assume its not getting much reaction from the formation.. these chalks wells are very very difficult, and the expertise is there at kowalik to try and get a completion for the operator..

looking very promising, indeed  i agree with TK entirely

"Our interpretation is that the readings are significantly positive.” 


hope it helps


----------



## Hatchy

hi agentm,
Thank you for that big post. I know very little about the whole process and I've learnt heaps this morning by reading your post.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Things seem to be falling into place and being conducted in a very proffesional manner.
No rush just get the right result.
Timing as mentioned is what everyone wants to know but in 1 months time one would imagine flow rates will be in ADI will be a producer and the next well will be drilling.
Busy period and good times oil is also looking to become a safe haven if turbulant times.


----------



## solomon

Hatchy said:


> hi agentm,
> Thank you for that big post. I know very little about the whole process and I've learnt heaps this morning by reading your post.




Hi Agentm, I can only say, I can't say it any better than Hatchy, I've learnt heaps and am very appreciative.


----------



## Agentm

keep researching and you always get the answers

*this is what the jvp is not allowed to discuss with their shareholders..*


if you dont think COP is serious about the sugarkane, or Cote d'Or, then i suggest you also please go to their own website and see what sort of people they are employing for this operation

read it carefully, and understand what this means in terms of how COP view the play:

*"This position will be an integral part of the South Texas Operations Leadership Team and will be expected to be a fully engaged member of that team. They will also be a part of the larger Cote D'Or Development team and will be able to independently operate within and outside a formal organizational structure."*




enjoy!!

http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cach...ophillips+cote+d'or&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=17&gl=au


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ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with operations in nearly 40 countries. As the third-largest integrated energy company in the United States and fifth-largest refiner in the world, ConocoPhillips' goal is to deliver energy in a safe, environmentally and socially responsible manner. Approximately 32,600 ConocoPhillips employees work worldwide to consistently deliver top performance and value to maintain the company's global market position. Employees' individual talents and strengths combine to  create a  diverse and  energized  workforce  within  ConocoPhillips.  Headquartered in  Houston, Texas, the  company  had  $178 billion of assets as of December 31, 2007.

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The Lower 48 Gulf Coast BU Cote D'Or Operations Team is seeking a Facility and Production Engineering Supervisor to build a multi functional team working the Cote D'Or development in South Texas. The Cote D'Or project is a green field exploration and development carbonate-dominated resource play which covers approximately 250,000 acres to date in South Texas and continues to expand. The successful candidate will be responsible for the overall facility infrastructure development in the Cote D'Or area along with being responsible for all production engineering functions in the same area. The job is located at ConocoPhillips' Westlake Office in Houston, Texas.

Responsibilities:

The Facility and Production Engineering Supervisor will be responsible for overseeing the facility and production engineering team working on the Cote D'Or project in South Texas. This position will build and manage the team necessary to safely design, build and optimize the facilities needed to commercialize the Cote D'Or development project. Along with facility oversight this position will be responsible for building the team necessary to design and optimize production engineering for Cote D'Or. Additionally, they will be responsible for Cote D'Or facility and production engineering budget development and oversight.

The successful candidate will have 12+ years of increasing responsibility in facility engineering, production engineering and operations. They will have a minimum of 3 years supervisory experience and will have experience in the start up of new oil and gas developments. This position will be an integral part of the South Texas Operations Leadership Team and will be expected to be a fully engaged member of that team. They will also be a part of the larger Cote D'Or Development team and will be able to independently operate within and outside a formal organizational structure.

Qualifications

Required & Preferred Skills/Competencies

Required/Preferred Qualifications

• Bachelor of Science degree in Engineering

• Must have a strong commitment to safety and promoting safe work practices

• Be a proven and recognized leader within the organization he / she currently resides

• Strong interpersonal, teamwork and organizational skills

• Ability to travel approximately 20% each year to participate in various functions/meetings in South Texas or other Networking sites as necessary

• Ability to work as a creative member of many multi-disciplinary teams

• Gets Results - Must demonstrate an ability to operate in a decisive, urgent and committed way to deliver results that are sustainable and measurable.

Proven ability to deliver results on time and within budget.

Flexibility - Must be able to prioritize and execute multiple assignments in a changing environment.

Capable of handling a large volume of diverse tasks. Capable of adapting to changes in project scope

• Solid written and oral communication skills

• Proficient in Windows and all MS Office applications (Excel, Word, Powerpoint, etc.) and have a working knowledge of other industry and company supported software

• Legally authorized to work in the United States on a regular, full-time basis without restrictions.

Required/Preferred Qualifications

• Must have 12+ years of combined and increasingly responsible experience in facility engineering, production engineering and operations.

• Proven leadership track record with at least 3 years previous supervisory experience

• Proven, vocal and visible safety leader

• In depth knowledge/experience in design, operation, and optimization of production and facility systems.

• Familiarity with facility risk assessment processes included but not limited to PHA's, Haz Ops, etc.

• Familiarity and experience with completions, re-completions, workover practices, procedures, and well design

• Scoping, planning and scheduling skills

• Previous budget development and management responsibility

Desired Experience Level:

Candidates should have a minimum of 12 years experience in Production Engineering, Facility Engineering and Operations along with at least 3 years of varied supervisory experience.

Additional Information:

Minimum assignment duration of 3 years is required due to the strategic importance of developing the Cote D'Or project.

Job Function
: Engineering

Job Level
: Team Leader

Primary Location
: NORTH AMERICA-USA-TEXAS-LAREDO

Organization
: LOWER 48

Line of Business
: Exploration & Production


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well what we are all waiting for is confirmation from the jvp,s on what they rekon is down there.
In this market even that wouldnt stir the sp but a cumulative well development will increase the potential of the partners and there share prices.


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## Agentm

Lucky_Country,, your incorrect

i am not trying to stir up the sp.. nor should i have to debate that with you imho.. i am posting my research here, i hope you appreciate it.. 

at least the shareholders can discuss the cote d'or,,


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## Lucky_Country

AgentM I never said you were trying to stir the sp what I posted were my veiws on the sp.You are welcome to post your comments no matter what anyone says.
My comments were basically saying that the market is just not taking any notice of the potential due to the Credit Crisis fear is ruling the market.
ADI will gain some traction when the management come out and tell us conclusivley what they think they have found in Texas.
As each well is developed that will also be taken into account on the sp.
Anyone whom has bought today got them cheaper than what I paid 2 years ago and good luck to them and all of us.


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## Agentm

its what COP call this major project 

The Cote D'Or project is a green field exploration and development carbonate-dominated resource play which covers approximately 250,000 acres to date in South Texas and continues to expand.

its what adi has 23,000 acres of


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## Agentm

meridian announced this news from a dual lateral a short while ago..  3200 bopd is still pretty handy, our chalks are said to be similar to the east texas play, but we have got better porosity and possibly permiability according to recent presentations ..

HOUSTON, Aug. 28, 2008 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Meridian Resource Corporation (NYSE:TMR) today announced initial production test results on its Davis A-388 No. 1 well, located in Polk County, Texas in the Company's East Texas Austin Chalk Play. The well was recently tested at gross daily flow rates as high as 19 million cubic feet of natural gas per day ("Mmcf/d") and 3,200 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD"). Flowing tubing pressure was measured at approximately 1,200 pounds per square inch through an open choke. Instantaneous shut-in pressure was measured at 4,650 psi. The well was drilled vertically to approximately 13,000 feet then added two horizontal laterals. The first lateral extends approximately 6,000 feet in length with the second extending approximately 5,500 feet for a total wellbore exposure in the Austin Chalk of 11,500 feet. 


in our region there are things happening that  indicate a very large amount of operations are coming our way.

there is an operator which puts down pads for the rigs who is putting in a permanent facility to store a lot of machinery and to deal with some long term full scale demand.. there is still talk of many rigs to arrive in the coming months, so to see this operator set up certainly points to the fact this is not about to stop..


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## seasprite

Agentm do you know whatever happened with the testing of Kennedy 1H , has this been done or is it ongoing?


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## Agentm

kennedy 1h well was tested, and last announcement was that TCEI will put it on production, very marginal rates of production due to well not being optimally completed for the chalks formation .. 

the plan is to frac it again later this year or early next year.. 

focus is on an upper chalks completion open hole..


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## estseon

Agentm said:


> kennedy 1h well was tested, and last announcement was that TCEI will put it on production, very marginal rates of production due to well not being optimally completed for the chalks formation ..
> 
> the plan is to frac it again later this year or early next year..
> 
> focus is on an upper chalks completion open hole..




agentm,

does that mean that they will re-drill part of the lateral? Or is it that part of the lateral drilled was in the upper chalks?

Also, I've noticed that they have been referring to "upper chalks" and "lower chalks" instead of zones 1, 2 & 3. Does this mean that they have a revised view of the formation? Or do they still see the formation as having a potentially productive middle zone of about 120ft thickness?

Rather testing questions but I just wondered whether you had a view based on the slight change of language used.


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## seasprite

estseon , I Just found in 27 May presentation that they drilled Kennedy 1H too low in the lower to mid chalk instead of the Sugarkane productive top zone. One of their options is to move up hole and as you say drill another lateral to test another zone. see pages 16 & 17. Looks like Sugarloaf may add significant value to ADI . 600 BCF mean potential.
Bring it on .


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## estseon

seasprite,

the 8th September presentation:

 Kowalik targeting.....
 10mmcfgpd and 2,500bcpd ($260,000 per day)
 Payout in 2-3 months
 10 BCF + 2.5mmbc with 15 years reserve life
 NPV US$70mm (US$2/mcfe)

Previously, they had suggested 36 wells for the Sugarloaf. Not sure how much acreage acquired AFTER that suggestion.

Focus on the NPV. If, say, 30 wells achieve that Kowalik target (there will be the need for extra discounting anyway because they won't have them all drilled within 12 months):

US$70m x 30 x 20% = US$ 420m discounted value of risked cash flow.

I'd agree that there would appear to be a bit of upside potential.

ADI must be pretty confident to put figures like that out in a public document.

If Kowalik comes in at the figures 'speculated' by ADI, and IF the market buys the ADI figures, we could see the price up 50% or more.

Their figures suggest a revised view of reserve potential.


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## Hatchy

Up 50% - that's conservative isn't it? 

I think I speak for everyone here when I say - I would like to see it up at least 100% after the next 2 wells.


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## Agentm

estseon

thanks for taking the effort to put some figures down..

on a sniff of success at the deep hosston sands target ADI speculated to over $1, that deep 21000 foot target in sugarloaf 1 was said to be 800 BCF (1.5 TCF)



638 acre spacings will get you 36 wells..

36 wells @ 10 BCF + 2.5mmbc with 15 years reserve life


100 acre spacings will get you 230 wells.. 


oh, and 40 acre spacings, which is what Conocophillips is talking about doing, will get you around the  575 wells region for our AMI sugarloaf 23,000 acres.. 

if TCEI is allowing ADI to do all calculations based on 638 acre spacings in their presentations then so be it..  i would think that it would be impossible to drain a chalks formation on that type of spacing, imho the region of 100 acre spacings on average is already more than likely, but 40 acre spacings is probably closer to what the operators know is needed in the chalks, as evidenced already in the Kunde 3 & 4 wells and baker 1 & 2 wells..

becomes staggering, and even more so  when you have Conocophillips looking to do over 250,000 acres in their Cote d'Or project on this same austin chalks play both north east and west of our acreages..

perhaps a touch more than the 50% latitude in the future share price could be expected..  who knows, maybe no one owns a calculator..?


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## estseon

Hi agentm,

the 50% was just on the back of Kowalik. You know the ASX better than me. Perhaps the SP will take off at that point when they do arithmetic based on these figures and that published plan. ADI are saying 35mmcfepd.

35 x 330 (say production year) x 15 (years - it won't flat line but let's see what the figure produces) x 36 (number of wells) millions cfe.

That comes out at 6,237,000 million cfe. In non-scientific terms, 6.24 trillion cfe.

Production is bound to decay, so it wouldn't be this much.

You are saying that the 36 wells over the acreage (working out at 1 per square mile) would be just the start. This must be correct. The rock has low permeability.

Does 1 well define a field? or 1/10th of a field? I was just suggesting that the ASX might like to see some evidence of replication of results before extrapolating them.

What of total reserves? EME has said that there are 3 zones of thickness 80ft, 120 ft and 50 ft. Perhaps the formation is not uniform over the acreage. But a total of 250ft thickness over 36 square miles at, say, 7.5% porosity suggests around 1.5 cubic miles of gas (crushed under huge pressure - 80 atmospheres) & condensate. Convert that volume into barrels of oil (it isn't all condensate but it will give a top end theoretical capacity figure) and it calculates out at 21 billion.

A fantasy figure, obviously.

What about the volume ratio of gas/condensate? I don't know the pressure at which the projected 10mmcf is 'measured' at. Say, 1 atmosphere. The volume at 80 atmospheres will be 125,000cuft =  3,500 cu metres. The volume of 2,500 barrels will be 400 cu metres, so say 10% of the volume is condensate. That's 2 billion barrels with the gas in addition.

More fantasy figures.


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## solomon

Hi estseon, thanks for the posts, I realise they are fantastical, but even so, they have only added to my excitement for ADI, 5% of those numbers would bring us all great joy.

I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas, I know there's going to be something great under the tree and I just can't wait.


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## Agentm

estseon

each well going in determines the extent of the field, you get p10 p50 p90 reserve calculations, the more you explore and infill the higher your possible reserves and probable reserves go,,

we know this is a stratigraphic play.. so it will go a long way, i think the initial well already proved hydrocarbons, the second well confirmed they flowed, and this kowalik well, the third well in our acreages, is likely to be put on immediate production and demonstrate commercial flow.. 

subject to all going well at kowalik, ADI is about to be looking at its first of hopefully 4 commercial wells in a row, in  a greenfield play with what is no doubt a staggering play in terms of size and potential..

news should come soon on how kowalik progressed this last week.


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## Agentm

Kowalik-1H 

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that at 6am  Texas time on the 23 September, 2008 the well had reached a measured depth of 14,385 feet, which equates to approximately 2,500 feet of the planned 6,000 feet of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk. 

*The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, which has led to sustained flaring activity. In addition, when routine operations such as connections reduce the downhole pressure, larger flares have been observed on surface, indicating a response to drawdown**. *Elevated gas readings of approximately 1,500 units have been consistently  measured during the drilling of this portion of the horizontal section. 

Whilst encouraging the commercial significance of these gas shows and flares will not be known until the well has been flow tested. 

The horizontal section is targeting the upper pay interval that has been reported as successfully producing gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage. 

*** in essence, this means that when operations such as the addition of drillpipe require the circulation to be stopped, this temporarily reduces the pressure downhole and causes additional gas to influx into the well bore which ultimately produces the larger flares at 
surface. *


the well has only gone 550 feet since last week, so very very slow going, which is remarkably smilar to the story in the conocophillips wells, where they had to stop drilling  eventually.

right now, hearing this news, i think you would have to be optimistic.. perhaps even slightly elated.. this is very promising indeed,, flaring all the time is excellent, and then larger flares on changing to a new section of pipe really indicates the well is wanting to flow in a big way..

good luck to all holders..


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## seasprite

I compared my records to ADI's latest Top 20 shareholder list. It appears the majority have increased their holdings presumably from the rights issue while 3 or 4 have remained at their previous amount. ARQ energy (AWE) remain No 1 at 39,550,000 as of 19 Sept 08


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## Agentm

a few months ago 500,000 units qualified you for the top 20,, now you need more than 700,000..  one top 20 increased by 1,000,000 if i remember rightly..

the announcement today is pretty sensational imho. 


"The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, which has led to sustained flaring activity"

great news, great progress report.


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## barney

Agentm said:


> a few months ago 500,000 units qualified you for the top 20,, now you need more than 700,000..  one top 20 increased by 1,000,000 if i remember rightly..
> 
> the announcement today is pretty sensational imho.
> 
> 
> "The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, which has led to sustained flaring activity"
> 
> great news, great progress report.




Agree Agent ..... An excellent progress report indeed ............. The interesting thing is, if this report had come out after they had drilled Sugarloaf, or Kennedy, the SP could have been almost off the map .............. I think most average punters (Of which I am definitely one), will need something "written in stone" by ADI and TCE , to entice the bigger punters into the fray, before the Sp will reach its full potential ................ I think the patient will be rewarded, but I also think the patient might need to be (extra) patient .................... Just the same, I find it odd that people are selling their shares at below the rights issue price after this kind of news .......... Then again, there are a thousand reasons why people need/want to sell their shares ................ I don't have a lot of shares compared to most, but I'll hold what I have left until the gas and oil dries up .................. 

I mean if COP and TCE are happy to invest millions of dollars into this area, the least I can do is hang on to my few thousand $ worth ..........


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## Agentm

barney said:


> Agree Agent ..... An excellent progress report indeed ............. The interesting thing is, if this report had come out after they had drilled Sugarloaf, or Kennedy, the SP could have been almost off the map .............. I think most average punters (Of which I am definitely one), will need something "written in stone" by ADI and TCE , to entice the bigger punters into the fray, before the Sp will reach its full potential ................ I think the patient will be rewarded, but I also think the patient might need to be (extra) patient .................... Just the same, I find it odd that people are selling their shares at below the rights issue price after this kind of news .......... Then again, there are a thousand reasons why people need/want to sell their shares ................ I don't have a lot of shares compared to most, but I'll hold what I have left until the gas and oil dries up ..................
> 
> I mean if COP and TCE are happy to invest millions of dollars into this area, the least I can do is hang on to my few thousand $ worth ..........




hey barney,,

firstly, lets see if they make td on this well,, imho its getting pretty hard,..

cop and tcei have not spent millions, but billions..

Cote d'Or is not a figment of my imagination, my research is correct, and the jvp cant discuss the project..  but that will change soon.. very soon..

no one is downbeat on kowalik right now, thats for sure.. it wants to produce while drilling, thats unbelievable!  great prices right now, but no volumes of any note..

i am with you, i will hold, gladly, theres nothing i know thats going to better this one.


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## hashertu

Agentm.
What are your thoughts about the slow rate of drilling at Kowalik?
If I was to hazard a guess, it would include:
Don't want to damage the bore hole.
Don't want to get anything stuck.
Possibly steering between fracture clusters.
Do want to get to 6000ft horizontal because it gives the most economic return on drilling costs.


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## Agentm

i would tip mechanical reasons and also formation.. bit of both..

its all in all abrilliant drill so far. we can only speculate on the reasons but i would be glad to see a 6000 foot lateral if its possible..


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## bazollie

G'day to all of the ADI holders and followers. 

I read every day this thread and post occasionally on it as well. One thing that has been catching my attention is the number of "views" this thread has attracted ( in excess of 300,000!)

I would be surprised if this thread hasn't the greatest number of views on this website. Maybe the Moderators could comment on this one!

Now your guesses would be as good as mine as to why so many views- Is it that the visitors to this site start at the beginning of the Alphabet and can't get past ADI? Is it that this stock has the potential to be a Company Maker for the smaller JVP's involved in Sugarloaf? 
Or is it the fact that there is so much great information and research that is posted on this thread!

I know and have seen some great information, some "sledging and downright verbal attacks " on some of the posts on ADI. 

I also can see that there is a nucleus of True Believers ( you know who you guys are ) that have been in the stock for same reason as me , build wealth over time , based on a good story with great potential. 

There have been times where I could have lost patience and bailed , but being a long term investor and not punter ( I work full time and can't risk punting ) I couldn't bring myself to do this. 

The way I see it, the JVP companies , must surely have a better understanding of this AMI they have , and the risk / reward ratio that this play offers must surely be a great reason to stick with it. 

The volume of stock changing hands is minimal in the scheme of things and I see evidence that the Top 20 seem to be accumulating ever so slowly. I would be interested to see what the top 40 would hold. 

I would be very hesitant to sell any of ADI at the moment , as I believe that they must be getting so much closer to really understanding what they have under ground at the moment. IMO and DYOR etc. 

I know that we all have reasons to invest and DYOR etc. but I am still hanging on , and have been accumulating for the last 12 months or so. 

I await in anticipation for the next 3 months as these 3 months could clearly be the most exciting of ADI and the JVP's.

Good luck to all holders and new investors,

Regards
bazollie


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## Hatchy

What a good time to add a few extra's to my holdings. I agree with the sentiments here earlier - had the latest announcements come say this time last year - we'd all be a bit happier. I guess the low volumes can offer some assurance, that people are holding this stock for when the storm is over. 

I'm just not sure the storm has finished yet. 

Hold people hold!


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## Lucky_Country

Just with the general tone of ADI announcements moving from the conservative approach to the seemingly more confident tone is a good sign imo and could not ask for a more upbeat assesment.
Kowalik looks destined to be a producer what flow rates is now the real question.


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## Agentm

Cote d'Or keeps getting more attention from conocophillips, this latest job ad shows more detail, the highlighted regions are extremely interesting to me. 

http://www.simplyhired.com/job-id/lqbq2iry2y/cote-d-jobs/


This play is one of ConocoPhillips' largest global exploration projects, with planned 2008 investment in excess of $100 MM

Cote D Or Exploration Geologist - 005WE

Description

Company Overview

ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with operations in nearly 40 countries. As the third-largest integrated energy company in the United States and fifth-largest refiner in the world, ConocoPhillips' goal is to deliver energy in a safe, environmentally and socially responsible manner. Approximately 32,600 ConocoPhillips employees work worldwide to consistently deliver top performance and value to maintain the company's global market position. Employees' individual talents and strengths combine to  create a  diverse and  energized  workforce  within  ConocoPhillips.  Headquartered in  Houston, Texas, the  company  had  $178 billion of assets as of December 31, 2007. 


Description

General Responsibilites:


*Responsible for participating and leading our company's exploration efforts within the Lower 48 Region's Cote d'Or carbonate-dominated resource play. This play is one of ConocoPhillips' largest global exploration projects, with planned 2008 investment in excess of $100 MM. The Cote d'Or Exploration Geologist (or Reservoir Engineer, depending on posting) with spend the majority of time creatively assisting the exploration drilling campaign, employing multi-discipline and state of the art technologies, to test the commerciality of the quarter million acres of land we have already acquired to date, and also direct where additional leasing and opportunities should occur. The successful candidate will hard-line report to the Cote d'Or Exploration Manager and the Manager of the Cote d'Or Project.*


Responsibilities

The Geologist will have the ability to:

Participate in an unconventional gas multi-disciplinary team that performs subsurface technical evaluations to determine exploration drilling potential in the Cote D'Or asset.
Provide an integrated geologic model and assessment of unconventional assets through characterization of producing and non-producing areas.
Participate in an exploration strategy that requires the inception of ideas to the implementation and execution of an aggressive drilling program.
Display strong organizational skills that will allow for interpretations and assessments to be available for presentation.
Become knowledgeable in unconventional gas concepts and integrate leading technology practices into capital program to promote commerciality.
Evaluate and high grade opportunities to grow asset position.
Identify prospects and propose drillable location through a peer review process.
Learn to develop detailed well plans and fully supporting an aggressive drilling program within a multi-discipline team.
Take part in an aggressive exploration drilling program and become exposed to portfolio management and coordination of multi-discipline activities that includes land, regulatory, commercial and engineering functions.
Determine resource and reservoir estimates; prepare structure, isopach, and net pay estimates of prospects in regional and target exploration areas.
Contribute to the Gas in place/Resource assessment of both regional and prospect areas for Exploration Inventory Database.
Support the development of the Long Range Plan, Budget, Capital Outlooks and SLT presentations.
Research, evaluate and integrate multidisciplinary data to create new lead areas and prospects.
Interpret digital and rastor logs, rock property and chemical analysis, sorbed and pore gas content evaluation.
Conduct detailed petrophysical analysis of open hole log data.
Knowledge share with Development Team and efficiently transfer information to the team as the exploration program matures.
Knowledge sharing with the Global Unconventional Gas Team that will advance ConocoPhillips position in becoming a leader in unconventional resource plays.
Monitor industry activity to gain insight to competitive trends and practices.
Provide continuous improvement in both the execution and planning phases of the business plan.
Knowledge share and mentor less senior staff and/or interns.
Become a geologist that has knowledge of the emerging unconventional gas resource plays and has the ability to implement and execute an aggressive drilling program.


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## estseon

So, most of whoever matters operating in the region is being told all about it but EME remains a silent partner bound by a confidentiality agreement unable to say a word about what a lot of people will be talking about. That makes sense. I can't imagine that thsi information drought can last very much longer.


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## Agentm

i know COP have a lot in mind for Cote d'or, but 100MM??  that will last about 4 months!  somehow the numbers dont add up imho.. maybe add a few more zeros.


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## estseon

Agentm said:


> i know COP have a lot in mind for Cote d'or, but 100MM??  that will last about 4 months!  somehow the numbers dont add up imho.. maybe add a few more zeros.




That was the level of capital budget for Meridian's drilling (in each of the last 2 years, I think).

Perhaps it's the residue of the 2008 budget?

If the budget for each well (single 6,000ft lateral) is $8m and they can complete 4 in a year they could absorb that budget using 3 rigs.

Besides which, will they have an authorised budget for 2009 at this stage in 2008? Seems a bit early.


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## Agentm

thanks for that estseon

i was thinking 2009 and it didnt add up,, but in 2008, this year they can easily spend that on the current wells and a few to come.. and leases,,  then some more imho...

your right,  2009 budget will be astronomical in comparison..

2009 would be their financial year commencing january 2009 is it not?

cheers


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## estseon

Agentm said:


> thanks for that estseon
> 
> i was thinking 2009 and it didnt add up,, but in 2008, this year they can easily spend that on the current wells and a few to come.. and leases,,  then some more imho...
> 
> your right,  2009 budget will be astronomical in comparison..
> 
> 2009 would be their financial year commencing january 2009 is it not?
> 
> cheers




Yep. They seem to report on a calendar year basis.

The regional managers / directors will be putting together their budgets for 2009 over the next couple of months (might have done it). I don't know how the process in CoP works but they will be bidding for a limited resource (money) against other regions. They will have to justify their bid and it would be helpful for their case if they could produce some attractive test results, plans and projections. I don't know how many tiers of management board would have to authorise but, working down, there will be a global budget, a country budget and, for the US, doubtless a regional budget. That would be my guess. Then the projects in the region will compete. That all will take time and lots of pretty presentations. All in my honest speculation. It's a bit different at EME: Frank & Tom sitting around a table with a plate of biscuits (to time the meeting) and a pot of coffee, a few sheets of photocopier paper and a couple of pencils. Maybe a cash projection also and a few "what-if" projections showing variances.


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## Agentm

a short little interview with eme by an recently started internet investment magazine..

thanks saf for posting it..  i have edited to fit...

From Aimzine. Written by Michael Crockett. Includes an interview with Tom.

"Empyrean Energy 

If you are looking for an exciting investment you need look no further than the Oil & Gas exploration companies listed on AIM. However, with nearly 100 of these companies listed, there are quite a few to choose from.We have selected Empyrean Energy for our analysis this month. We believe that the company is particularly worthy of further investigation for a number of reasons - not least of which is the company's Sugarloaf project. 


If you are looking for an exciting investment you need look no further than the Oil & Gas exploration companies listed on AIM. However, with nearly 100 of these companies listed, there are quite a few to choose from.

We have selected Empyrean Energy for our analysis this month. We believe that the company is particularly worthy of further investigation for a number of reasons:-
• The company is having significant drilling success at their Sugarloaf project 
• There will be a steady flow of news to interest investors for months and years to come 
• All of Empyrean’s four major projects are in politically stable countries (3 in the USA and 1 in Germany) 
• ...and all four are onshore 
I spoke to Tom Kelly, Director and Co-Founder of Empyrean, by telephone - Tom was in Perth, Western Australia. We discussed Empyrean’s projects and their prospects. In our conversation I learned just how key Empyrean’s Sugarloaf project could be for the company and its shareholders. Unlike some projects Sugarloaf is not a short term thing. Forecasts are indicating the potential for over 40 years of production here. Before I expand on the Sugarloaf project I will firstly say a little about the company’s brief history.

Change of Focus
Empyrean (meaning: The highest heaven, where the pure element of fire was supposed by the ancients to subsist) was first listed on AIM just over 3 years ago. At that time the company raised £2.1 million in a placing at 35p per share. These funds were raised to progress the company’s German gas project located near Frankfurt. As can be seen from the graph below, the shares have had a number of upward spikes. They even reached £1.60 within their first year of trading but today the shares are not far from the price of the initial placing

Empyrean’s focus has subsequently switched to the USA and it is one of the three US projects, namely Sugarloaf, where the current excitement around Empyrean lies. Sugarloaf is an oil and gas project in the Gulf Coast Basin of Texas.

Sugarloaf
The company refer to Sugarloaf as a multi Trillion cubic feet gas prospect and that is an awful lot of gas. To date, all 7 of the wells that have been drilled have encountered gas in varying quantities. Most of the wells have been fracture stimulated (what’s that? – see here) with varying results. As yet, very little gas is being produced, but some of the wells are likely to be significant producers. Sugarloaf has the advantage of a nearby gas pipeline infrastructure so it will be easy to sell the gas once the wells are producing.

Empyrean has a working interest in a 16 well program that commenced in 2007. Empyrean’s actual interest ranges from 7.5% to 18% - see the RNS here from May 2007 for more details of Empyrean’s interest in this area. This RNS is also useful in understanding the split of Sugarloaf into 2 Blocks (A & B) with differing operators. One of the operators is a major international oil and gas company whose name is ‘undisclosed for confidentiality purposes and to preserve and protect competitive advantage’ – the company is named on numerous different bulletin boards worldwide and as such is not the world’s best-kept secret. 
Although Empyrean’s interest is small in percentage terms, the potential rewards are considerable for a small company (market cap £20m at 34p) . It is almost exactly 2 years ago since the company reported the ‘encouraging gas shows’ from a 92 feet gas pay in the first Sugarloaf well. To see a current status of the 7 wells drilled to date we would recommend the ADVFN ‘Long Term Investors Thread’ bulletin board – see here (if you are not already registered for advfn, click the link anyway and then select ‘cancel’ – you will then be able to register for advfn for free).
The vertical wells drilled at Sugarloaf have encountered 3 potential pay zones – referred to as the upper, middle and lower zones. To date, results from the upper zone have been by far the most encouraging. However, the company is hopeful that the lower zones will eventually prove to be commercial. 
In a broker’s note dated 23 May 2008, Hoodless Brennan placed an estimated value on Sugarloaf at 74p per share. They say that the figure is based on conservative estimates and is in line with Empyrean’s internal Net Present Value estimate. At this stage, estimates are extremely ‘early stage’. Not only do we not know how much oil and gas is down there, the volatility of the dollar as well as oil and gas prices make long term forecasting even less reliable than usual. Tom Kelly indicated that their new brokers, Blue Oar, are currently working on a new detailed research note.

Prospects at Sugarloaf
The immediate interest at Sugarloaf is the on-going drilling of the Kowalik 1 Horizontal Well. This well is drilling horizontally through a 6000 foot of the upper pay zone. The company reported on September 24 that the well had drilled 'approximately 2,500 ft of the planned 6,000 ft of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk’. The company also reported sustained gas flaring during drilling. However the company cautioned that: ‘whilst encouraging, the commercial significance of these gas shows and flares will not be known until the well has been flow tested’. To read the 24 September RNS statement click here. We shall be looking out for the flow test results in a few weeks time. This well is particularly important for Empyrean as they have an 18% interest in the well.

I asked Tom Kelly when we would see production begin in earnest at Sugarloaf. Tom was unable to give an exact timetable as there are too many variables, but he indicated that the operator is working as quickly as possible to get the first two Block A wells into production. Tom explained that Empyrean are fortunate that wells at Sugarloaf have produced a good deal of gas condensate (what’s that? – read about condensate on Wikipedia). The advantage of condensate is that it will be financially rewarding with its price being close to that of oil. Also, condensate is easy to store and transport by truck. Permanent production facilities for gas/condensate separation are currently being built.

As yet the middle and lower pay zones have not been proved to be commercial. However, Tom believes that there is ‘tremendous potential for the middle and lower pay zones to produce at commercially attractive flow rates’ and he suspects that it will not be long before ‘further work will be undertaken in this regard’.

Other Projects
Sugarloaf has been taking centre stage over recent months, but Empyrean's three remaining projects have all got potential:-

1. Glantal, Germany  
2. Eagle Project, California . 
3. Margarita, Texas - 



Aimzine will provide updates on Empyrean over the coming months."



http://www.aimzine.co.uk/aimzine/1008/1008_b3/1008_b3.htm


----------



## estseon

"...As yet the middle and lower pay zones have not been proved to be commercial..."

Apart from stating the obvious (because they haven't actually done all that much work on those zones that we know of) it suggests that the feeling is that they are (exploitable commercially) but that they've not managed to prove it yet. The comment attributed to TK confirms that. TK must have said something interesting for that paragraph of non-news to be included.


----------



## Agentm

next permit to appear for conocophilips is the Eskew East 1H

its a short lateral well, but unlike the other laterals its not following the same course as all the chalks wells, this one is at nearly 90 degrees to the baker wells which are about 800 feet to the east of Eskew 1H

interesting to note that all edwards wells follow this laterals direction.. whether its a chalks well or not is conjecture, but its not listed as a sugarkane cretacious well like all the others, its listed as a wildcat..

its about 1.6 miles south east of the Albert HE  permit that TCEI has put in south of the sugarlaof 1 vetical

interesting..  COP is coming right up to the edge of our permits now..


----------



## solomon

Hi AgentM,
Could you give the google earth latitude and longitude (no need to post the map) so that I can plug it into my own map and visualize where this well is? Thanks for sharing so graciously your research in this forum.


----------



## Agentm

another site has this guy called moto, he has been posting all th well locations on google earth.. including his best guess at the acreages of our sugarloaf AMI and the AUT acreages which i think is inaccurate.. but a good effort none the less.

Motos maps

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat...Words=+motoben&topic=&Search=true#Post1029194

i will post a map of recent permits shortly.


----------



## Hatchy

I just plugged that guy's info into google earth and it's great. 

Agent - do you use google earth also?

Perhaps you could let us have your co-ordinates if moto's aren't up to scratch.


----------



## Agentm

hatchy

motos well locations are spot on, its the acreages i dont agree with nor the AUT extra acreages.. The mapping i post is absolutely accurate, i use google earth to find roads and references sometimes..


----------



## Hatchy

I've uploaded what moto's stuff looks like cleaned up a bit and without the acreages as well. 

I wonder how low people will sell at today - there's no logic in it really. 

FEAR turns into SEAR (sell everything and run)


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## Agentm

the ariel view is ok, i hear a few days ago a Gulfstream G3 was flying tight circles over kowalik (which i hear is seen to be flaring still by locals),  andthen moved over to baker and then kunde for quite some time and then another location..  

obviously nothing


----------



## Agentm

the reports keep getting better

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT KOWALIK-1H

Adelphi Exploration Limited (Adelphi) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations at the Kowalik -1H well within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Kowalik-1H 

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that at 6am Texas time on the 30 September, 2008 the well had reached a measured depth of 15,239 feet, which equates to approximately 3,500 feet of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk. The current operation is pulling out of hole to assess the drilling assembly.

Since the last report the well has continued to produce gas intermittently while drilling, with larger flares observed following periods of shut in when tripping to change components of the drilling assembly. The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section. *More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section* prior to pulling out of hole.


----------



## tomcat

Great stuff...

So they managed to drill around 1000 feet since last announcement and they say that over this 1000 feet:

The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 
units during this section.

Wow!! 

50 foot flare...has there been any bigger Agent?

So maybe another week or so of good drilling and we are closing in on TD...I would be happy to see them call TD and get this monster producing!!


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## maverick11

I'm still holding tight to every single share.  Another great announcement today.  Hmm, will be interesting to see if they even bother to continue drilling or put this baby straight on production.


----------



## Hatchy

It's great news, but why do they keep adding - "the commercial significance of these flares will not be know.. blah blah"

Anyone read the end of year report - makes great bedtime reading, but one thing worth noting - Chris Hodge only has a bit over 200K shares - why is that?


----------



## tomcat

Have a look at his options Hatchy!! He will be very keen to see ADI go through the roof.

The reports on Kowalik show we are in a sweet spot...perhaps as long as they stay in zone 1 it is all a sweet spot

Be interested to see what happens when they finally get around to fully testing the other zones but I think we will have a lot to be happy about with zone 1


----------



## maverick11

Because they can't speculate and must only state the facts.  Although the news is definately positive, it is not yet definitive until they test and flow.


----------



## Hatchy

Right, yeah I thought they were covering their butts. 

Sure he's got a lot of options, exercisable at 90 or so... 

Have to wait and see what happens - we could be a ways off 90cps if these markets don't settle down.


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> Right, yeah I thought they were covering their butts.
> 
> Sure he's got a lot of options, exercisable at 90 or so...
> 
> Have to wait and see what happens - we could be a ways off 90cps if these markets don't settle down.






umm..  ok hatchy..  

i am sure none the wiser about who's covering who's butt!  

i think 90 cents thingo is fine, but i would be happy if we could get there quickly??  but we are kinda floating in the .30 region right now.. eeerrrr..

look i have to be frank here.. i have no clue what your on about


----------



## nioka

On the strength of the ADI report I have added EKA to my "sugarloaf" interest and now make the trading a three way deal between ADI, AUT and EKA. by trading in the last few days I have another 10,000 "free" ADI shares. I think the groundhog is going to be consumed in gas flares in the not too distant future and disappear into the sunset.


----------



## Hatchy

- ADI covering their butt saying they don't know what the flares mean commercially

- 90 cents or so for the big boys to exercise their options

I have not clue what i'm on about most of the time!!!





Agentm said:


> umm.. ok hatchy..
> 
> i am sure none the wiser about who's covering who's butt!
> 
> i think 90 cents thingo is fine, but i would be happy if we could get there quickly?? but we are kinda floating in the .30 region right now.. eeerrrr..
> 
> look i have to be frank here.. i have no clue what your on about


----------



## Agentm

3 weeks ago 

measured depth 13364 feet 

*Approximately 1,500 feet of horizontal hole has now been drilled with total gas recorded in the range 300 to 700 units – up from a background of approximately 200 units. Intermittent minor gas flares were present over the last approximately 100 feet of drilling.*
2 week ago

measured depth 13835

*the well had reached a measured depth of 13,835 feet. Following minor changes in the rig configuration to more accurately measure gas readings, TCEI have advised an
increase in background values to 1,000 - 1,300 units. Gas flares have been observed of a more sustained and substantial nature whilst drilling during the last week and a significant flare occurred following a wiper trip.*

1 week ago


measured depth 14,385 feet

the well had reached a measured depth of 14,385 feet, which equates to approximately 2,500 feet of the planned 6,000 feet of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk. 

*The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, which has led to sustained flaring activity. In addition, when routine operations such as connections reduce the downhole pressure, larger flares have been observed on surface, indicating a response to drawdown**. Elevated gas readings of approximately 1,500 units have been consistently measured during the drilling of this portion of the horizontal section.*

today

measured depth 15239


*Since the last report the well has continued to produce gas intermittently while drilling, with larger flares observed following periods of shut in when tripping to change components of the drilling assembly. The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section.

More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section prior to pulling out of hole.*


the well is now 3500 feet in the lateral, and has 2500 of drilling to complete

854 feet drilled this week..

elevated background readings have gone up consistantly, 300 - 700 in the first week, then with flaring, and then they changed the configuration on how to read the background readings and it has gone to 1000- 1300, then 1500, and now 2000

flaring has increased in frequency and size during drill breaks, to now flare during drilling up to 50 feet.

imho TCEI is hitting good chalks throughout and have also drilled closer to, or indeed intesected fractures of late..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Great reading todays announcement Kowalik seems to be getting stronger and stronger by the metre.
The most bullish announcemnent from ADI management ever a year ago this company would have been trading well in excess of $1 on this kind of report so when market confidence returns we should quickly profit.
Lets hope AgentM wins this months tipping comp finally he deserves it !


----------



## lukentel

Lucky_Country said:


> Great reading todays announcement Kowalik seems to be getting stronger and stronger by the metre.
> The most bullish announcemnent from ADI management ever a year ago this company would have been trading well in excess of $1 on this kind of report so when market confidence returns we should quickly profit.
> Lets hope AgentM wins this months tipping comp finally he deserves it !




I'd agree AgentM has done his work on this stock and a great job at keeping everyone updated across the online forum universe - god knows I dont have the technical smarts to interpret all that stuff that you all do

The only thing nagging me is that if you go to the beginning of this thread to now, theres been so much - what promise the stock has - to hit $1 or $6, and everyone is still waiting for that years later - it just doesnt seem to have the legs to get there.  

More than happy to be told I told you so when/if it comes off but for now I'm really on the fence.


----------



## Agentm

lukentel said:


> I'd agree AgentM has done his work on this stock and a great job at keeping everyone updated across the online forum universe - god knows I dont have the technical smarts to interpret all that stuff that you all do
> 
> The only thing nagging me is that if you go to the beginning of this thread to now, theres been so much - what promise the stock has - to hit $1 or $6, and everyone is still waiting for that years later - it just doesnt seem to have the legs to get there.
> 
> More than happy to be told I told you so when/if it comes off but for now I'm really on the fence.




good place to be perhaps.. if you have the cash and sitting on the fence you have so many choices..

two years ago the jvp announced they were drilling sugarkane..when the first target found the chalks to be very active they immediately implemented a massive lease buying strategy. thus ended any further activity on the sugarkane play for a good 12 months or more..

in that period TCEI secured 20,000 acres (now its 23000 acres) for our jvp and many more acres with other jvps such as AUT, and also in its own right..

in that time Conoco also drilled many verticals such as butler, hooks, bordovsky and in turn secured about 250,000 of it own acreages.. there are players such as meridian with 20,000 acres and other players not yet surfaced.

i gather you cant appreciate both the size of the play and the complexities of both securing leases and then drilling wells without revealing their successes, and whilst this happens you have a major player like conocophillips now declaring the sugarkane (cote d'or) as one of its major exploration projects..
and indeed they have now structured an entire separate division to just soley run this project. separate from south texas division entirely..

pipelines are in the planning, and infrastructure needs to be budgeted.. so in 2009 the show fully cranks up.. 

the current program of discovery and appraisal wells has given conocophillips the green light to make this "greenfield" (look it up) play one of its most important projects.. this is not a 3 tcf play..

where is the $3 - $6?  it arrives as the market understand the size and calculations thus far declared by the jvp is for 250 acre spacings, and extremely conservative well life figures.... no chalks play can be drained on that level of spacings.. thus 100 wells is giving you a net figures of 600bcf for our acres.. so your getting into 200m region to adi here. about $2/mcfe. .. look at the slide from the recent presentation to get some value from it.. now remember thats on 250 acre spacings..  there is no way this play will be drained on that, it will be far far smaller than that.. even on 100 acre spacings the figures are staggering, and thats based on just 6 bcf per well.. all on zone 1 alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so the current presentations are based on very conservative and low figures, and very big well spacings.. i have been told COP would look at 40 acre spacings in the good regions..

some see future value and have invested, others like yourself will sit on the fence.. all up to the individual investor and their risk profile..

btw all this is based on just the upper 80 foot zone alone!!  there is 220 feet more below to consider in two zones as its has been classified thus far.. 


when people say it could be the largest onshore US discovery, they are not kidding..!!  wonder how concophillips will announce it..??

you understand that the jvp are not allowed by contract to mention anything other the most conservative of figures, which is sensible, and the cote d'or project and Conocophillips are not allowed to be mentioned in any way shape or form on any presentation or release....

how many companies do you know are under contract not to discuss all aspects and angles and interests in a play they are investing massive capital into??


----------



## Agentm

next well for conocophillips with eme as a farm in partner

marlene olsen,,


*The well is designed as a vertical well that will target all three potential pay zones* (Upper, Middle & Lower) identified on the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field. The "Upper" zone has two wells that Empyrean has previously reported as successfully flowing commercial quantities of gas and condensate on test (Block A-1 & A-3 wells).


conocophillips is now exploring the deeper zones


----------



## estseon

Baker 1 vertical pilot took 20 days to TD. Baker 2 information is less certain. It spudded on 4th July and EME reported on 1st August that it had reached TD, that logs had been run and that they were setting plugs to kick off the lateral drill. So drilling might take about 3 weeks but we might not hear anything until nearer the end of the month. For SL-1, they started work at the deepest level.


----------



## Lucky_Country

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sugarloaf Testing

            Zone 3 fracture stimulation completed
            During initial test period flowed gas, 
            condensate and water
            Water characteristics were of a 
            formation below the Austin Chalk -
            likely frac has penetrated to below 
            the Chalk
            Further well testing required
            Currently installing completion 
            tubing in order to carry out longer 
            term production and pressure testing
            Will not test upper 2 zones until post 
            Kennedy-1H testing

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Reserve Potential - Sugarkane
Additional information from expanded operations will be required in 
order to make firm estimates of reserves and economics
Potential reserves have been estimated for the 200,000 acre 
"Sugarkane" field by TCEI.
The field is expected to be developed with horizontal wells
Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (upper zone 
of 3 - the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) is 
more than 3TCF and approx. 500MMBC
Based on these reserve and production assumptions, Sugarkane 
has better economics than conventional horizontal developed 
Austin Chalk and the Barnett Shale.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aurora JV's Sugarkane Reserve Potential - Upper Zone

                                        1.91 TCFe


----------



## Agentm

the kowalik is sure lively of late..  imho the flares whilst drilling has not changed at kowalik one bit.. and also imho the midweekly will be as positive as all the previous ones were. perhaps more so...


Lucky_Country, the figures going around on what these chalks can hold is staggering, when you think that anything announced so far has been extremely over conservative.


----------



## seasprite

I am not sure what it is , maybe it is the size or type of font that ADI use , however I can read EKA or AUT announcements and get quite exited with the result , but reading ADI's exact same announcement , I liken it to reading a dictionary which does not exactly push my buttons for any form of fun.

I have also noticed after an announcement AUT share price will rise while ADI share price remains unchanged. 

AUT has 202m shares on issue
ADI has 124m


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## nioka

seasprite said:


> AUT has 202m shares on issue
> ADI has 124m




The relationship between ADI and AUT must take into account the fact that AUT has additional acerage which may offset the different number of shares. I'm still happy to give them equal value and while the AUT price has been higher I have been trading AUT for more ADI. I have now taken EKA into the equation as the EKA SP dropped more than I thought it should drop. At the moment I hold all three with ADI being the dominant one. I am watching the relationship daily. Good news will not cause an even increase in the SP. It will depend on the numbers of buyers and sellers of each and one will be faster to react and one will be slower. There will be an opportunity for a profitable exchange arise here. Be prepared.


----------



## Agentm

if you can equate additional acreages in AUT to a better share price when no wells have been drilled in those regions to prove the additional acreages are prospective then so be it, but then how do you equate the acreages ADI hold in yemen with a major discovery only a few miles from the acrages? surely you must add something to adi for that nioka? both are the same then are they not?? both have acreages in world class areas that have not been drilled, ipanema and longhorn for AUT.. and yemen for adi (276 square kilometers just for block 7 alone)


Block 7
Prospectivity
• Several basement leads 20 - >100 mmbbls
• Other sub-salt leads up to ~100mmbbls
• 3D seismic completed
• Drilling mid-2009

oil search did nto sell this block!!!!!!  it kept it for very good reason

• Primary play is fractured basement 
• Similar to nearby 110mmbbls Habban (Al Uqlah) field that will be 32,000 bopd by 2009
• Several secondary / traditional targets provide upside


dont forget there is also indonesia..

it still confuses the heck out of me in how you can consider ADI and AUt have any parity what so ever nioka....  imho, AUT have not the same portfolio as ADI, nor does it have to 100% support of a great partner like AWE.. i would agree EKA and AUT have similarities, but ADI is not imho..

imho you take a very simplistic view of the partners.. and i am trying to criticise you because thus far you have managed to make an absolutle killing and increase your holdings on these partners by trading in and out of them.. but is this simplistic view of only considering acreages and not costs going to be the only view that people will accept? 

AUT has its own costs to meet on the 80% and 50% ownership of the additional acreages, so in terms of the near future, with the high costs of drilling thes horizontals, which easily takes $6 - $10 mill to drill,  wouldnt you consider the 80% of costs to ipanema and 50% of well costs needed to drill in longhorn in the valuations you make??  i would have thought for them to drill 5 wells on each region to prove it up will mean a considerable amount of capital would be required.  with the current 4 well program stretching all partners to the max, and the need for more capital on the 20,000 acres by the jvp once the 4 wells are completed and adding in additional for kennedy being fracced...  are you certain that AUT would not be requiring additional capiatal for any fairly expensive expansion into longhorn and ipanema??

imho the dumping of the large volume of AUT and EKA was attributed to perhaps margin calls? but whatever the causes for holders to have to dump the shares is directly related to the very sharp decreases in their share prices..

imho ADI is well managed, has very strong shareholder support and patient holder who do not panic and dump their shares.. it is a well held share imho..


----------



## nioka

Agent.

I agree with all you say. I admit to the fact that I may be wrong. To a certain extent I am using a blanket approach that is influenced by the values that the market in general have placed on the various assets and prospects for all three. I agree that ADI is the soundest investment where risk is taken into account. IF the SP values are/were equal all the time then I would stay with ADI 100% and I keep going back to ADI on that basis. Last week is the first week I have put extra funds into the project for a long time. I did it by buying EKA and AUT as their price was better than ADI at that stage. It is also the first time I have held EKA. ( I only really started following EKA closely after one of your posts asking if I had considered EKA in the equation.) All I can say is that it is working for me and has allowed me to cream off some profit and increase my holding.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well ADI has to be my best perfomer in recent times I know that does not say much for the rest of my portfolio but also speaks volumes for ADI.
The shareprice has been reasonably well supported on two fronts imo.
Existing holders keeping a firm grip on what they hold and some increasing including myself.
Also the results on Kowalik 1 have been very pleasing in a conservative way.
I just like the way management in ADI go about their business, professional, and know a good project from a average one.
ADI in Wisteria farmed out at a great time when oil and gas were real vogue but still maintained good exposure what a great deal that was.
Lets see the rewards near term and enjoy the ride.


----------



## Hatchy

seasprite said:


> I have also noticed after an announcement AUT share price will rise while ADI share price remains unchanged.





I think you'd have to look at who own the shares, ADI will only generally move if someone wants to sell - and there's been bugger all selling of ADI lately!


----------



## nioka

Hatchy said:


> I think you'd have to look at who own the shares, ADI will only generally move if someone wants to sell - and there's been bugger all selling of ADI lately!




There has also been "bugger all" buying. More buying offers would mean increased price. Let's face it all three ADI, AUT and EKA have had very low volume. Those holding are mostly all long termers with some faith. Those selling probably either need the money or are swapping like I have been. Those few new buyers have probably been reading Agentm's reports. I'd suggest they are not a stock for the day trader.


----------



## Agentm

ADI  has the cash for the next 4 wells..

so far we hear kowalik is flaring whilst drilling, as reported last wednesday..  and my contacts report the well is still behaving as reported last week.. 

i remain totally convinced that there is nothing wrong with kowalik, and those dumping out of adi at the moment are imho are really not undersatnding the situation out there in texas..

"The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section. *More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section *prior to pulling out of hole."

that aspect of the report from my understanding was not once off.. i hear this flaring at kowalik is continuing even till today..  i think the kowalik well is absolutley looking like its going to achieve commercial flow..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Commercial flows are almost certain imo.
The question is whar are the flow rates ?
Are the flow rates going to be impressive a company maker, money spinner, and continuos throughout all 4 wells and more ?
Soon we will see ADI may even let some more positive news come out over the next few announcements.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> those dumping out of adi at the moment are imho are really not undersatnding the situation out there in texas..



Today,74,034 shares traded for $19,113. 

Hey! that's not dumping. 

That is just the odd few sales by some needing cash. More like a few people getting out of investing in a troubled market. I bought a few more AUT and EKA today (no ADI sold) So for every seller there is a buyer.

Today's prices don't matter to anyone holding. Don't worry. Just ignore them unless you want to buy. It's the price that we see AFTER the drilling results that will count. Until then just count groundhogs.


----------



## seasprite

Lucky_Country said:


> Commercial flows are almost certain imo.
> 
> Soon we will see ADI may even let some more positive news come out over the next few announcements.




Yeah , I hope they put exciting words like SIGNIFICANT ,SUBSTANTIAL , OUT STANDING in big bold capital letters (flashing Neons) . 

Pressures must be extremely high to produce a 50ft (15.2m) flare on a continuous bases . I just hope the next announcement is timely and coincides with a rebound in the DOW and not another slide because that will not be of any benefit whatsoever in a falling market.


----------



## mick z

nioka said:


> Today,74,034 shares traded for $19,113.
> 
> Hey! that's not dumping.
> 
> That is just the odd few sales by some needing cash. More like a few people getting out of investing in a troubled market. I bought a few more AUT and EKA today (no ADI sold) So for every seller there is a buyer.
> 
> Today's prices don't matter to anyone holding. Don't worry. Just ignore them unless you want to buy. It's the price that we see AFTER the drilling results that will count. Until then just count groundhogs.





nioka,

looking at the sugarloaf project only, EKA has by far the best leverage of the au jvp's ( as of today )

eka  10c  82mil shares

adi   25.5c  120 mil shares

aut    25c   ?????

like you i also bought more eka today,  it must have been just you and who bought eka today.


mick


----------



## Lucky_Country

seasprite said:


> Yeah , I hope they put exciting words like SIGNIFICANT ,SUBSTANTIAL , OUT STANDING in big bold capital letters (flashing Neons) .
> 
> Pressures must be extremely high to produce a 50ft (15.2m) flare on a continuous bases . I just hope the next announcement is timely and coincides with a rebound in the DOW and not another slide because that will not be of any benefit whatsoever in a falling market.




Not sure we will see a massive run up on the release of outstanding flow rates more a sensible climb on each well proving to be commercial.
4 wells minimum producing oil and gas would put ADI into the mid teir producer problem is it may become a takeover target and it has way to much potential USA Indonesia Yemen all are impact targets.
Indonesia will be interesting to find out more about the project tho


----------



## nioka

mick z said:


> nioka,
> 
> looking at the sugarloaf project only, EKA has by far the best leverage of the au jvp's ( as of today )
> 
> eka  10c  82mil shares
> 
> adi   25.5c  120 mil shares
> 
> aut    25c   ?????
> 
> like you i also bought more eka today,  it must have been just you and who bought eka today.
> 
> 
> mick




3.04 pm 20,000 @ 10.5c Definitely get's more of sugarloaf than any of the others today.Should have put in the order for more as there were another25,000 at the same time at the same price.

ADI, AUT and EKA all good value in my opinion. The longer the groundhog lingers the better off I seem to be. But I do want it to end soon.


----------



## seasprite

Consolidation is the name of the game lately . We have seen it with NXS & AZA attempt.
BG/ORG attempt
ROC/AZA
QGC/RPM
DLS/GOG
COE/IPM
AWE/ARQ to name a few.

I suspect STO will do some sort of deal in the near future as well with another prominent player so it doesn't become a target, possibly BPT .

It is becoming difficult nowadays to raise funds , we have seen that with ADI's rights issue and with the credit crunch it will be even harder for companies to get loans . So maybe AWE might take advantage of its holdings to have exposure to the US market . Time will tell .


----------



## Hatchy

Lucky_Country said:


> Not sure we will see a massive run up on the release of outstanding flow rates more a sensible climb on each well proving to be commercial.




I agree - the most likely scenario is we're looking at next year before the market takes notice. That'll mean at least another well drilled and successfull before we find the gains we're all after. 

Then at that point we'll probably just want to buy some more. 
Please sir I want some more?


----------



## nioka

seasprite said:


> It is becoming difficult nowadays to raise funds , we have seen that with ADI's rights issue and with the credit crunch it will be even harder for companies to get loans . So maybe AWE might take advantage of its holdings to have exposure to the US market . Time will tell .




 There will be no problem raising funds if there is a good result. If there is not a good result then they may not need more funds. EKA may be the best buy today in some respects but will probably be the first one to need more cash.


----------



## Hatchy

I still like ADI for their Yemen prospect. I think that in itself could finance all of the texas development for ADI's side of the JV, but alas it's not in production...


----------



## Agentm

i disagree with the markets valuation of adi at the moment, sure its not a producer, but if your going to devalue this share and ignore the string of reports put out by adi on kowalik, and sell this share down, then someone is buying into a potentially very undervalued share imho..

adi, although it has a well on production, is not considered a producer, and  nor should it..  the second well, kowalik is producing whilst drilling at the moment, and evidenced still by locals noticing the well is flaring whilst drilling even up until yesterday.. but the actual flow rates will not be released  before the well is completed and conditioned for optimum production..

i have no doubt the well is commercial.. i think a lot of others share that view..

there are a lot of investors who were very keen to get on board this share, they are waiting for the flow rates before making the move, so imho the share will re rate once the production figures are announced, and there are now 4 wells in a row for adi in texas, and two in yemen in the coming months ahead..  with indonesia coming in this month, if we get  the bid, then we will also be drilling there fairly quickly. and should any of the 4 wells in texas be commercial i am certain they will be immediately be planning an extensive drilling program for the acreages.. 

no doubt on tiny volumes the sp will continue to fall when infact the adi has never been in a better position with a commercial find on its doorstep..  but one day in the very near future someone will figure out that the 230 acree spacings and 600 bcf is easily on the cards and indeed the wells may produce more, and its very likely that 100 acre spacings or even less is seriously on the cards..

i am holding as regardless of what happens today, tomorrow or next week.

strachan....

 Adelphi offers short term speculative interest based on
imminent drilling at the high impact Wisteria prospect
in the Bonaparte Gulf Basin and appraisal drilling at its
US Gulf Coast, Sugarkane project during Q3, 2008.

 Longer term, Adelphi is well positioned with two
exploration permits in Yemen, where drilling targeting
50-100 million barrel prospects is expected during
2009, while a new project in Indonesia will require
seismic data acquisition and drill evaluation.

 The Sugarloaf project in Texas holds potential to deliver
a long term gas and condensate production asset.
 Target valuation of $0.71 per share should support
share price appreciation as exploration drilling and
development gets underway.

 Importantly for a pure exploration company, Adelphi’s
high quality technical and financial management team
is backed by an experienced Board with strong
industry credentials


The company estimates that the total play could yield 600 Bcfe of gas, so Strachan Corporate risks an additional target of 200 Bcf plus 40 mmbbls of condensate with an 18% POS and assumes that a further 22 wells would provide sufficient coverage to scope out a 3P resource, given the nature of the play.

Success at this level would be worth over $400 million to the company, whose current market capitalisation is just $42 million (currently $31.5 mill), so there is significant leverage for shareholder wealth. Once the project is proven, debt finance would be available for field development, limiting the requirement for significant new equity.

this from hartleys based on only 1200 boc/d

Valuation
Our well cost assumptions for Sugarloaf are US$10m per well (completed) with ongoing opex of US$5 per mcf produced. We assume initial flow rates of 5 mmcf/d with 1,200 boc/d per well from 20 wells drilled over three
years. This yields gross recovery of 125 bcf of gas and 30 mmbbl of condensate. This equates to 425 billion cubic feet equivalent (gross by value), which is conservative compared to the Company estimate of 600 billion cubic feet equivalent gross. We have used an 80% net revenue interest with a 10% state royalty and a 36.5% corporate tax rate. Using these assumptions, we calculate a net present value for Sugarloaf of $213m or 198cps net to Adelphi. This has been further discounted to account for technical and exploration risk; however, success at Kowalik would result in a significant reduction in risk and a re-rating of the Company.

Our exploration valuation is done on a risked basis given the resource potential, probability of success (“POS”) and approximate NPV per bbl/mcf for the different tax regimes in which Adelphi operates.


these valuations are based on the upper zone of chalks only.. and a whole lot more is known about it now and was not made available to the brokers then..


well done to those buying at the moment and adding.. i have no doubt the sellers are thinking they will get better elsewhere, and good on them for having the balls to sell this share down on tiny volumes and find better elesewhere.. but i cant see a mass exodus of holders, infact the top 20 shareholders hold 64.5 mill shares.. in August 07 it was 56 million shares between them..  that an average of 15% increase.. it indicatees steady support there imho..


----------



## mick z

hi agentm,

              i think every one would agree with you on your last post, there is huge potential at sugarloaf for this project to be a company maker for ADI and every knows it.

its just market sediment that's holding the sp down........but it will change in the future, maybe not until next year but things will change, i myself am trying to pick up the cheapies at the moment and i think any one who believes in the sugarloaf project should be doing the same, i think all the jvp's are extremely good buying at the moment.

i agree.......this well will be commercial that's for sure and i hope the announcement tomorrow tells us that they are still drilling and flaring, i would like to see them drill the entire horizontal, now that would also give confidence to the market.


mick


----------



## Hatchy

I'm not sure about Strachan - He didn't get CSG right - said it'd never go, now look where it is.

ADI is going to go ahead, we believers know that. The market can drop the price, but the volume is so very low we shouldn't be concerned.


----------



## Hatchy

mick z said:


> hi agentm,
> 
> its just market sediment that's holding the sp down........b
> 
> mick





I think you might mean sentiment? 
Surely there is a bit of sediment around at the moment too - but wait till it settles.


----------



## Agentm

i was feeling a little sedimental today..

these brokers have been following thesugarkane story for some years, and they are very conservative on their estimates here.. i agree that most have no clue on the sugarkane other than whats been fed them, and i doubt if any are aware the suagrkane is conisdered by conocophillips as this in this financial year of 2008 

*This play is one of ConocoPhillips' largest global exploration projects*, with planned 2008 investment in excess of $100 MM.   

we already know they would have blown that budget out of the water already..


----------



## nioka

Not a good day on the ASX so far. I couldn't help myself taking the ADI offered at 23c today. Wednesday is the day for an update on the progress of Kowalik so you'd think sellers would at least wait to see the result before selling.


----------



## solomon

Nioka you beat me to them, I saw and hesitated. Oh well good for you. Good luck to all holders in this crazy market.


----------



## Hatchy

It's a joke really.... 
People just dont' have the balls to hold out - it's good, get rid of those that don't believe we've got it.


----------



## seasprite

Hatchy said:


> It's a joke really....
> People just dont' have the balls to hold out - it's good, get rid of those that don't believe we've got it.




There is an article posted on www.oil-price.net about $700b bailout and oil price. JP Morgan appear to be a dominant player in the oil and gas industry , so those selling out may infact regret it if they sell at a loss instead of hanging in there.


----------



## nioka

solomon said:


> Nioka you beat me to them, I saw and hesitated. Oh well good for you. Good luck to all holders in this crazy market.




Your turn now. Looks like I paid too much. Down to buying at 20c. I'm going fishing, when I come back I will hope the news has been released. All I have proved this morning is that "he who hesitates is NOT lost."


----------



## Hatchy

nioka said:


> I'm going fishing, when I come back I will hope the news has been released.




What a good idea, there's nothing to do on the market without spare cash - I wish I could go fishing!


----------



## Agentm

your crackin me up nioka..

i bet its you thats sellin and buyin..  somehow you'll end up with 80% gains and the sp will be worth pennies..

man,, the more it goes down the more units your making in the crossovers..

keep going, its not bothering me as i am not selling to no one until the big picture is done.. whats happening today or next week wont change the value of the sugarkane.. oil will always be needed and the massive reserves in the sugarkane will pay a dividend, even if one day its more than the sp..


----------



## Hatchy

_*TCEI have also reported that commercial production commenced at Kennedy-1H at initial rates of 0.2 million standard cubic feet per day and 60 barrels of condensate per day on the 02/10/08 (US CST). This initial Kennedy production comes from a fracture stimulated zone of approximately 600ft in the bottom of the 4,000 ft horizontal section of the well drilled through a lower stratigraphic level to that currently being drilled at Kowalik-1H. To our knowledge this represents the first production from this level within the Sugarkane Field.*_

Finally we have some good news from Kennedy!!!!!
WOOHOOO!!!


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> your crackin me up nioka..
> 
> i bet its you thats sellin and buyin..  somehow you'll end up with 80% gains and the sp will be worth pennies..
> 
> man,, the more it goes down the more units your making in the crossovers..



 My trading must be helping keep the SP up. I usually take out a seller if I buy. I thought this morning I would take out the 23c seller but another came along and I had to take out another. I went down to the river to check my crab pots and came back to see sales at 20c. Thought I'd go fishing for an hour or so and come back for some price lifting good news. 

Results: No crabs, No fish, except for 1 stingray, Good news but not much price action. I guess the groundhog lives on.

The price level itself doesn't help in cross overs unless one changes more than the other.


----------



## Agentm

2/3 the way in,, still a way to go yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


4 weeks ago 

measured depth 13364 feet 

Approximately 1,500 feet of horizontal hole has now been drilled with total *gas recorded in the range 300 to 700 units – up from a background of approximately 200 units. Intermittent minor gas flares were present over the last approximately 100 feet of drilling.*

3 week ago

measured depth 13835

the well had reached a measured depth of 13,835 feet. Following minor changes in the rig configuration to more accurately measure gas readings, *TCEI have advised an increase in background values to 1,000 - 1,300 units. Gas flares have been observed of a more sustained and substantial nature whilst drilling during the last week and a significant flare occurred following a wiper trip.*
2 weeks ago


measured depth 14,385 feet

the well had reached a measured depth of 14,385 feet, which equates to approximately 2,500 feet of the planned 6,000 feet of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk. 

*The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, which has led to sustained flaring activity. In addition, when routine operations such as connections reduce the downhole pressure, larger flares have been observed on surface, indicating a response to drawdown**. *Elevated gas readings of approximately 1,500 units have been consistently measured during the drilling of this portion of the horizontal section.

1 week ago

measured depth 15239


*Since the last report the well has continued to produce gas intermittently while drilling, with larger flares observed following periods of shut in when tripping to change components of the drilling assembly. The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section.

More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section prior to pulling out of hole.*
today

measured depth 16,178

progress for week 939 feet

the well had reached a measured depth of 16,178 ft which
equates to approximately 4,350 ft of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk.

*The well has continued to produce gas whilst drilling, with regular intervals producing strong flares with back pressure on the well. The rig has consistently measured gas readings in excess of 2,000 units.*

imho the well is consistantly drilling in the chalks formation and the well continue to produce gas whilst drilling.. trying to see where this report is negative, despite the massive pric drop in adi throughout the drilling, i am still convinced the people selling are not understanding that the reports are actually very good and imho you cant judge this well as a dry hole, i know the sellers are thinking it obviously must be and bailing, but i believe the kowalik well may be misinterpreted by the shareholders who are selling this share down every week..

imho the adi share is undervalued and the outlook on kowlik is nothing like what those who are bailing out think..

good luck to those selling and i still believe those buying are perhaps understanding the reports better

"strong flares with back pressure on the well".. does not usually equal a dry hole


----------



## solomon

nioka said:


> Your turn now. Looks like I paid too much. Down to buying at 20c. I'm going fishing, when I come back I will hope the news has been released. All I have proved this morning is that "he who hesitates is NOT lost."




I walked away from it after my last post this morning and have only now come back - so I missed those that went at 20c as well. 

My reading of todays report was very good. ADI officially announced that Kennedy was on production, and I'm reading the Kowalik news as positive as well.


----------



## Agentm

yes you could say the eagle has landed in kennedy... and be 100% correct.

but its not understood thus far by most punters what the geology is..

right now, if you get adi at these prices, you should be arrested for theft, its a steal alright.. but cash is king right now...


----------



## tomcat

The significance of the Kennedy well shouldnt be overlooked, it shows there is the potential for the reserves to be increased significantly. 

Tom Kelly had this to say:

 Commenting today, Empyrean Director Tom Kelly said - "This first commercial production
from Kennedy in the middle pay zone is very
exciting as it confirms the middle pay zone as being commercially productive. The middle zone
has the potential to hold greater reserves
than the upper zone. We think there is also vast room for improvement in flow rates from this
zone"


----------



## fflintoff

*Empyrean's Kennedy H1 well starts production*

Empyrean's Kennedy H1 well starts production

“Oct 8 (Reuters) - Oil and gas explorer Empyrean Energy Plc (EMEL.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Wednesday said its Kennedy 1H well in the Sugarloaf prospect, Texas, had started commercial production.
The company said the well initially produced at 0.2 million standard cubic feet of gas and 60 barrels of condensate a day.
The production will have a significant positive impact on the overall reserves potential of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate field, the company said.
"This first commercial production from Kennedy in the middle pay zone is very exciting as it confirms the middle pay zone as being commercially productive," Empyrean Director Tom Kelly said. (Reporting by Tresa Sherin Morera in Bangalore; editing by Simon Jessop”

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSBNG37578520081008


----------



## Agentm

you can say that again!!

i am kinda partial to a whole zone being commercial, but who would want to invest in a 1 tcf field in zone 1 and potentailly that again in zone 2?


----------



## Hatchy

I can't think of anyone who would want to invest in a company that has a bright looking future. 

Un freakin believable.


----------



## Lucky_Country

The market just isnt listening at the momment but one day hopefully soon it will think positive again.
ADI has done extremley well getting production maintaining a low number of shares and fully funding the next 3 wells.
Flow rates from Kowalik will be very very exciting imo and they are doing extremley well drilling the horizontal should reach target depth next week at these rates.
Good Luck to all holders.


----------



## solomon

AgentM I love your new avatar picture, it speaks of confidence, of the future, of a squillion cubic metres of gas and condensate down in those chalks!


----------



## nioka

solomon said:


> AgentM I love your new avatar picture, it speaks of confidence, of the future, of a squillion cubic metres of gas and condensate down in those chalks!




I preferred the elephant until it proves that we are in elephant country but a good gas burn is second choice. I think there was an elephant close by today.


----------



## solomon

I have added a few more this morning at 20c, lets hope the seller at 20c is gone for good never to be seen again.


----------



## nioka

solomon said:


> I have added a few more this morning at 20c, lets hope the seller at 20c is gone for good never to be seen again.



 Good for you. I paid 21c this morning. Sometimes I wonder if I am trying to keep the price up or get a bargain. I'll shoot that bl###y ground hog if I get the chance.


----------



## solomon

nioka said:


> Good for you. I paid 21c this morning. Sometimes I wonder if I am trying to keep the price up or get a bargain. I'll shoot that bl###y ground hog if I get the chance.




Well if you are trying to hold the price up it seems to be working for now. As for 21c v. 20c what is 1c going to be when ADI breaks loose of that evil ground hog and sets forth into a new day? Nothing! It is good buying.


----------



## Hatchy

gee there's a high volume today as compared to recent times. What the heck is going on?

I'd like to see a lot lower volumes - probably margin calls, but still


----------



## nioka

Hatchy said:


> gee there's a high volume today as compared to recent times. What the heck is going on?
> 
> I'd like to see a lot lower volumes - probably margin calls, but still




Lots of investors sell on news. Some decided the news yesteday wasn't good enough for them. Maybe we are holding up fairly well under the circumstances. I wouldn't really describe it as volume though. Just a little more than normal.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

nioka said:


> Lots of investors sell on news. Some decided the news yesteday wasn't good enough for them. Maybe we are holding up fairly well under the circumstances. I wouldn't really describe it as volume though. Just a little more than normal.




It's been fairly rock solid at 20c all day. Looks determined not to duck its head under this mark. A trade at 21.5c just went through as I speak. Maybe the start of some support coming through???


----------



## Hatchy

I just have to wait for my tax return to come through to see how much I owe, then i'll sink a few more cashes into ADI - at this price it's a steal.


----------



## tomcat

Nice to see buyers finally outnumbering sellers and on a day like this:

The last time adi got down around 18c it had a nice bounce back up to 40c.

With the cow only having a couple of weeks max of drilling left and having flared for the last 3 weeks I think there could be quite a commercial well about to be put onto production.

Well done the buyers at these prices...great value IMO


----------



## tomcat

Looks like those rigs must be getting closer:

Conoco are putting in another well called Lasca Butler Searcy Trust which is the latest Burlington well in Live Oak.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...LASCA+BUTLER+SEARCY+TRUST&univDocNo=485320269

Getting very buys over there. With the number of wells being applied for you would think this play definately justifies the expenditure conco are pumping into it.

Looking forward to wed update on Kowalik...not long to go now!!


----------



## Gspot

tomcat said:


> Looks like those rigs must be getting closer:
> 
> Conoco are putting in another well called Lasca Butler Searcy Trust which is the latest Burlington well in Live Oak.
> 
> http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...LASCA+BUTLER+SEARCY+TRUST&univDocNo=485320269
> 
> Getting very buys over there. With the number of wells being applied for you would think this play definately justifies the expenditure conco are pumping into it.
> 
> Looking forward to wed update on Kowalik...*not long to go now*!!




Hhmmm!! 'not long to go now!!' Now where have I heard that before, 
"Please lord, *make this happen*, so we can get on with our lives."


----------



## Hatchy

Gspot said:


> Hhmmm!! 'not long to go now!!' Now where have I heard that before,
> "Please lord, *make this happen*, so we can get on with our lives."




Well - there really isn't long to go till the hole is dug!
Then we'll see the testing, then we'll see it in it's glory.


----------



## nioka

Hatchy said:


> Well - there really isn't long to go till the hole is dug!
> Then we'll see the testing, then we'll see it in it's glory.




That is right yet in the last few days I bought a few EKA at 8.5c, a few AUT at 18c and a few ADI at 21c. Some people certainly have run out of patience. I think that they will regret selling in the very near future.I thank Agentm for helping me maintain the faith.


----------



## Agentm

hatchy..

cant be long now, i think no more than a week for the drill to finish, few days for the liner,, take the rig off ,small workoverr rig to work on cleaning the well bore out.. then straight on production..

nokia..

i am not changing my view on this play, i was never goign to stay in if COP were not deadly serious, it seems the years of poeple laughing themselves stupid at me for saying its potentially a 3tcf play was sure showing me that research pays more than ignorance and bignoting yourself by saying a well is dry.. evryone called sugarloaf 1 dry, it flowed before the well got edwards water in it and it couldnt continue.. so zone 3 is fine and produces..  

kennedy the same, everyone called it a dry hole, its producing right now, and will be worked on to make it far more commercail.. and as tom kelly said , it makes the reserves potential double with zone 2 producing....

zone 1, it seems by the sp its still very much not believed, no value what so ever for that one.. kowalik is still considered absolutely uncommercial by the market and no value given for the well or zone 1 in the sp.... 

with kowalik still flaring, and concocophillips still putting in permits to follow fractures back from where they were located, and with pipelines being built by COP.. i am happily staying in this one..

imho the 230 acre spacings are way off the mark, i think 100 acre spacings and the reserves easily  2 times what they say they are for zone 1..  and zone 2 is double that again and zone 3 is not out of the equation at all..

cant see any reason to bail right now, only reasons to add..

imho TCEI has to be looking at 4 rigs right now very soon...  just to explore zone 1..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Lets hope that the markets worst is behind us and ADI shareprice gets full value for money which at these levels are less than 10% of some recent ADI presentations.
Remember when everyone had confidence in the market ADI was over $1 and oil price was $60. Now we are almost at Z1 production Z2 is producing and shareprice is ~22C what a joke but some will soon be laughing imo.
Also feel it maybe some time before we total value for money but 2009 should be a real great run with more wells coming online, more rigs onsite and Yemen !


----------



## estseon

It might be too early to call the general market but just about every single share in the FTSE 100 (apart from RBS) is up. If this actually does signal a return to sanity and some degree of composure in the general market, and is replicated in New York and other major markets, we could see also a re-focus on fundamentals. And Kowalik might be coming in just at the right time.

Fingers crossed but the period of misery may be almost over.


----------



## sam76

estseon said:


> we could see also a re-focus on fundamentals. And Kowalik might be coming in just at the right time.




The same thing occured to me this morning, Estseon.

Fingers crossed alright, mate. The shareholders deserve to be rewarded.


----------



## Agentm

the new permit in live oak for conoco makes it look like they will be very busy there as soon as the rigs arrive.

there is plenty of buying in the top 20 and imho the kowalik well has so far behaved as good and in some respects a lot better than any other lateral completed..


----------



## seasprite

One shareholder has sold down in the top 20 , a mere 15,000 shares and before that it was 3,000 . No activity for the rest up to the 6th Oct.


----------



## Hatchy

Who's keen for some good news this week? 

I am!

With the recent fluctuations in the market, I really think those that are holding ADI long are starting to take over - there's really been low volumes, and even last friday we didn't see the total plummet we probably could have. 

I'm keen for some news.


----------



## seasprite

Gas readings regularly in excess of 2000 units continued to be measured. Is that good news or what.

approx 1500ft(457m) to go .


----------



## Agentm

Kowalik-1H 

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that on the 14 October 2008 the well was preparing to drill ahead at a measured depth of 16,325 ft which equates to approximately 4,500 ft of horizontal section within the Austin Chalk.

Slow progress over the week was primarily the result of the drill string parting and the subsequent successful fishing operation. 

*The well has again continued to produce gas whilst drilling, with regular intervals producing strong flares with back pressure on the well. Gas readings regularly in excess of 2,000 units have continued to be measured.*
Whilst encouraging the commercial significance of these gas shows and flares will not be known until the well has been flow tested.

The horizontal section is targeting the upper part of the Austin Chalk that has been reported as successfully producing gas and condensate in 3 wells in the adjacent
acreage.

Kennedy -1H

TCEI has also reported that production at Kennedy-1H over the prior week averaged 0.15 million standard cubic feet per day and 44 barrels of condensate per day.

Further updates on Kennedy production will be made in the event of a material change and on a quarterly basis


----------



## Hatchy

Right news is out, and what a lacklustre set of news - right when we all want some good news, when all we get is bad news elsewhere and we hear that all week TCEI have been "fishing" 

Did they drill at all?


----------



## seasprite

Hatchy said:


> Right news is out, and what a lacklustre set of news - right when we all want some good news, when all we get is bad news elsewhere and we hear that all week TCEI have been "fishing"
> 
> Did they drill at all?




If they announced they were fishing , especially between wednesday and friday last week , imagine what that would have done to the share price with major sell downs globally . So I am quite glad they announced it now while the market is in some sort of recovery. 

an announcement for the Indonesia bidding result was due around October , so I hope that brings good fortune to all holders.


----------



## tomcat

Yeh hatchy

150 feet, sounds like they are just getting back into the drilling now!

The good news is they successfully got the string back...and they are still getting good gas readings.

I wonder if they will call TD prior to the 6000ft mark, could still be a possibility but the further they get the more fractures the well bore will be exposed to!


----------



## Agentm

on a long lateral, you dont want doglegs.. it can cause drill string breakages and in the case of baker 2 you can have an operator like nabors have some issues with the drill and come up very short.. the best drillers cant prevent things from happening, its just how it goes, i always expect long delays whilst these experimental wells go in.. each one teaches you how to improve, and drilling this lateral is no exception.

the drill string was successfully recovered.. and i am sure the 150 feet of well that was drilled is not the issue that was on anyones mind, it would have been the ability to get that drill string out.. this formation is really testing the limits of equipment on all well sites.. there are serious pressures down there, and the well just wants to flow!!  

now wait until they flow this one.. i am really keen for them to stop the drill now, but when you getting the right sort of reaction from the formation the tendency is to go for it and follow it on.. 

plenty of drilling left.. this well has a staggering lateral planned.. 1781 feet still to go.  they are  looking at 6281 feet on the lateral.. imho replicating the sizes that they use in the east texas chalks on the laterals..


----------



## Lucky_Country

All seems quiet here at the momment everyone waiting for the day of truth.
The annual report was a great read with 100 wells mentioned, reward shareholders patience, Yemen and Indonesia also featuring strongly.
Yemen could really be the icing on the cake and Indonesia looks to be a great coup for ADI if their bid is sucessful.

Sugarloaf just weeks away if not closer than that to really find what Zone 1 has got down there.

Zone 2 and Zone 3 still more work to be done.

Im really looking forward to the development of this field it looks to be a real rewarding one for all shareholders.

2009 a real busy year for ADI


----------



## blues

Indonesian oil award is out. Will be interesting to see if we hear anything from the company about that and who their partnership is with.

http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=67986

Should be interesting update tomorrow.


----------



## Agentm

please read this for details of the region and what the expectations are from continental..

http://www.continentalenergy.com/?page=bengara

i am pretty impressed with it and i am glad ADI stuck it out and got the bid, 

extremely interested in who they partner this one up with..


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Agentm,

What was the exact bid ADI was successful with? Can't find any such announcement as yet???


----------



## Agentm

Sunburnt Land said:


> Agentm,
> 
> What was the exact bid ADI was successful with? Can't find any such announcement as yet???





they won a bid in indonesia. the location was kept quiet by ADI, buts its an onshore block south of  the continental region. link posted above..

i hear the government has not oficially announced it but the department has..

i am not privy to the other partners in the bid and how its all farmed out. i am hoping that can be announced also.



Oil and Gas OA Winners Announced, Chevron Achieves 2 Blocks
Friday, 17 October 2008, 10:35:06 WIB, ( Hits: 78 ) 

Jakarta,
The Government announced 22 winners of oil and gas operational area offered through joint study, cycle I-2008. Oil and Gas Companies included in The Seven Sisters, such as Chevron Indonesia Ventures, won at 2 operational areas, while ConocoPhillips manages Arafura Sea area.


From the 22 oil and gas operational area, the total investment commitment for the first 3 years is US$ 330 million and signing bonus for US$ 45,5 million. 

Director General of Oil and Gas, Evita H. Legowo, when announcing the winners at MEMR Lobby, Friday (17/10), explained that from 25 areas offered last 27th May 2008, only 22 areas fulfilled the requirement. 

“The bid participants took 62 documents. From the amount, only 25 documents were returned,” said Evita. 

Unreturned participation documents are North Bali II, North Masela and West Papua II areas. 

The complete winners of oil and gas operational area cycle I-2008 are:

1. East Seruay : Serica East Seruway BV

2. South CPP : Ranhill Energy Sdn Bhd

3. South West Bukit Barisan: Consortium of PT Radiant Nusa Investama-PC (SKR) International Ltd

4. Lirik II : PT Karya Inti Petroleum

5. West Tungkal : PT. Tiga Musim Mas Jaya

6. South East Tungkal : Konsorsium Gujarat State Petroleum Corp.Ltd-Essar E&P Ltd

7. Lampung III : PT Harpindo Mitra Kharisma

8. East Muriah : Konsorsium Pearl Energy Ltd-Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd

9. Madura : PT. Sinochem Petroleum E&P

10. North Sumbawa II : Husky Energy International Corporation

11. West Sageri : Konsorsium Kaizan Oil&Gas LLC-Niko Resourches (Overseas II) Ltd

12. South East Ganal I : Konsorsium Kaizan Oil&Gas LLC-Niko Resourches (Overseas III) Ltd

13. South East Sangatta : Konsorsium PT Kutai Timur Resourches-Salamander Energy (SE Sangatta) Ltd

14. South Bengara II : Adelphi Energy Ltd

15. North Bone : PT General Energy Indonesia

16. South Matindok : Konsorsium Kaizan Oil&Gas LLC-Niko Resourches (Overseas IV) Ltd

17. Bone Bay : Konsorsium Kaizan Oil&Gas LLC-Marathon Indonesia New Ventures Ltd

18. Buton I : PT Putindo Bintech

19. Arafura Sea : ConocoPhillips

20. Seram : Konsorsium Biak Petroleum LLC-Niko Reasourches (Overseas VI) Ltd

21. West Papua I : Chevron Indonesia Ventures Ltd

22. West Papua III : Chevron Indonesia Ventures Ltd


----------



## Sunburnt Land

South Bengara II sounds promising. Any predictions on who may be partnering ADI in this bid? ADI is already up this morning (albeit on a very low volume). Hoping the official announcement, together with a positive update from Kowalik, will ramp up the share price over the next couple days.


----------



## Agentm

i cant help there, its two international companies that are involved and i am under the impression ADI must remain the operator.

the block was considered a great block from what i have understood of it. There is plenty happening next door with continental, and they say if 1TCF is discovered regionally then a pipeline and plant will be put in to the south..

For there to be two international companies lining up to be in on this i gather its just not ADI who is interested an fairly upbeat about it, continental consider it a medium risk play.


----------



## seasprite

here's another write up 

http://www.ogj.com/display_article/343072/7/ONART/none/ExplD/1/Indonesia-expects-E&P-investment-to-reach-$375-million/


----------



## seasprite

Top 20 activity Merrill Lynch (Australia) Nominees Pty Limited have reduced their holdings by 32,500 shares , no other top 20 activity up to 17th Oct 08 . Expect a drilling report today Kowalik-1H , getting close to Total Depth .


----------



## Agentm

overnight another permit for conocophillips in live oak..

this one is called Eskew West 1H, a horizontal well west of the baker wells and south of kunde..

So far Conocophillips has drilled

Kunde 1 (discovery well - on production)

Kunde 2 (twice - first hole lost, second well is on hold pending frac tests Kunde 3)

Kunde 3 (cemented liner - on hold!!! fracced An acid fracc with 5 sets of perforations over only 900' of the 2700' horizontal, produced "spectacular" flows of 2.5mmcf of gas and 950 brls. of concentrate per day from zone)

Baker 1 (open hole completion - on hold!!  2.2mmcf of gas and 560 brls. of concentrate per day. this well was not cleaned up, had to stop drilling due to formation pressure. expections of the well once cleaned up and stimulated to vastly increase flow rates)   

Baker 2 (open hole completion. unable to complete lateral due to drill string breakage. well has partial slotted liner, apparently on test right now)


Maerlene Olsen Vertical well (currently drilling away - Target is the deeper zones)


TCEI has drilled

Sugarloaf 1

Kennedy 1H (on production - averaged 0.15 million standard cubic
feet per day and 44 barrels of condensate per day.)

Kowalik 1H  (drilling)


----------



## tomcat

I view this as good news...only a few hundred feet in the last 2 weeks, definately tough drilling with high pressure and the well wanting to flow. Glad they have called it in and are getting ready to test.

Imagine the 7-10 day timeframe is conservative coming from the JVP's...it will all depend on how they get on with installing the liner. If that goes in without to many issues then we may be getting a flow rate update early next week...but this is oil and gas so who knows.

Getting very exciting and I am happy that TD has been called, it is still the longest lateral so far so lets see what it can produce!


----------



## queenstown

Does anyone have any experience on how long the flow rates will take to be advised to market? I note they mention 7-10 days which could be as early as next weeks update.


----------



## Agentm

within 14 days according to the annual report..

that formation was extremely hot and overpressurised. it literally is destroying equipment which is at the upper most tollerence levels of what technology can give us currently. 

now we get to see what the chalks can deliver.


----------



## Agentm

posted with permission from hartleys:


Hartleys Express Note

Train Leaving the Station

Stock:Adelphi Energy Limited (ADI 23.5cps)

Valuation: 64cps

Recommendation:Speculative Buy

Details and Impact:

Success at Sugarloaf Could Increase Valuation to >200cps - 

Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi", "ADI", "Company") has reported that total depth has been called at its Kowalik-1H well in onshore Texas (ADI 20%). The well has continued to report significant gas flares and high gas readings whilst drilling the 4,600 ft horizontal section. 

Completion is scheduled to be finalised in 7-10 days before flow testing commences.

*Gross flow rates of 5-10 million cubic feet of gas per day with 1,250-2,500 barrels of condensate per day could see our valuation increase to > 200cps.

Even discounting for the current market conditions, a 500% return on investment is not unreasonable if results are as per expectations.

Testing Imminent, Last Chance for Investment - *

The next 2-3 weeks represent an opportunity to invest at low prices with significant leverage to a relatively high chance of success. The chance of success is considered to be good due to positive indications observed during
drilling and the success of wells on adjacent acreage, targeting the same play.

We rate Adelphi Energy Limited as a Speculative Buy.

If you have any questions please call.

Dave Wall
Oil and Gas Analyst
Hartleys Ltd


----------



## solomon

I am very happy to be well (excuse the pun) and truly set for this one before the broker reports and the flow (another pun - some days i just can't help myself) that is, flow of new money. I've been accummulating over the last two weeks and have doubled my holdings and brought my average price down significantly. Bring on the 500%. Thanks Agentm for sharing. All the best for holders.


----------



## estseon

As usual, the language used in these terse announcements leaves messages open to interpretation:

"...The Joint Venture has elected to call Total Depth at this point and a wiper trip has been carried out in preparation for completion of the well.  These operations are expected to take 7 - 10 days before the well will be flow tested...."


I would interpret that as saying that they've done the wiper trip (no small feat) and that they are now preparing to run the liner. They didn't say when they stopped drilling - it could have been some days ago (?). Now they have to move the rig to the new site (stand by for spudding news) and bring in the workover rig - unless that, too, has been done.

I must say that I am greatly relieved. If they have made directional changes during the drilling that is making the task even more difficult (agentm has spoken of 'doglegs' and I don't suppose that he was talking about fossils discovered) far better to line and test than to risk doing as CoP did in Baker 1 (lose a string and block the well). 

Besides which, they've drilled about 1,800 feet further than CoP did on the Baker twins - they are learning as they go. The next one may go to design depth.

It's looking good.


----------



## Agentm

agree on a lot there estseon.

the well must have been called TD a few days ago, the wiper trip is quite possibly completed and its likely that the liner could be prepared right now.

pulling down a rig takes a few days, so for the liner to be completed and the rig dismantle i think a week to 10 days is probably easily going to cover that. 

imho the processes will be clearer next week in the mid weekly report, but i expect to hear they may be up to testing the well pretty much towards next weekend.

there is no doubt this well is going to produce, hartleys is reminding all what 5 - 10 mcfpd can impact the sp.

in light of how the other wells regionally have come in, i am extremely keen to hear what kowalik is capable of.

i also agree that the next well announcement will be coming through in the near term also estseon..


----------



## Agentm

courtesy the aut annual report

"As further information is gained from new wells, it is
possible to make volumetric assessments of the contingent
resource potential of the Sugarkane field. Aurora believes
that the upper chalk horizon could contain as much as
8 Tcfe across the full 200,000 acres which would equate
to a net figure of 700 bcfe for Aurora across its acreage.
These figures do not consider the middle and lower chalk
horizons within the reservoir, which have already proved
to be hydrocarbon bearing and productive in Kennedy
#1H . Of course at this early stage of appraisal there are
a number of assumptions that must be made to generate
such figures."


----------



## seasprite

Agentm said:


> posted with permission from hartleys:
> 
> 
> 
> Valuation: 64cps
> 
> Recommendation:Speculative Buy
> 
> Details and Impact:
> 
> Success at Sugarloaf Could Increase Valuation to >200cps -
> 
> *Gross flow rates of 5-10 million cubic feet of gas per day with 1,250-2,500 barrels of condensate per day could see our valuation increase to > 200cps.
> 
> Even discounting for the current market conditions, a 500% return on investment is not unreasonable if results are as per expectations.
> 
> Testing Imminent, Last Chance for Investment - *
> 
> The next 2-3 weeks represent an opportunity to invest at low prices with significant leverage to a relatively high chance of success. The chance of success is considered to be good due to positive indications observed during
> drilling and the success of wells on adjacent acreage, targeting the same play.
> 
> We rate Adelphi Energy Limited as a Speculative Buy.
> 
> If you have any questions please call.
> 
> Dave Wall
> Oil and Gas Analyst
> Hartleys Ltd




I guess this valuation is based on the pure fact that ADI will be receiving NYMEX prices US$ and with the exchange rate as it is now , makes ADI more favourable to those gas producing in Australia.

This maybe a bit premature pending flow rate results, however here is an extract from Natural Gas Weekly update

"Virtually all natural gas spot trading locations registered price increases on the week. These increases occurred in response to the arrival of cold weather in many areas of the country. Furthermore, significant price increases in the Southwest and in the Rockies likely were the result of numerous pipeline maintenance projects undertaken this week. Additionally, the slow recovery of the production outages in the producing areas of the Gulf of Mexico provided a further boost to natural gas spot prices. According to the Minerals Management Service (MMS), as of October 21, 2.7 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day remained shut-in the Federal Gulf of Mexico. With another 0.5 Bcf reported shut-in for the onshore and offshore State waters of Louisiana, more than 3 Bcf per day, or greater than 10 percent of U.S. natural gas production, remains unavailable to domestic markets. The cumulative production shut-ins caused by the recent hurricanes are estimated to be roughly 265 Bcf through yesterday (October 22)."

NYMEX Natural gas futures are forecast to increase over coming months 
www.nymex.com/ng_fut_cso.aspx


----------



## Agentm

eureka annual report

KOWALIK-1H

The Kowalik-1H appraisal well was spudded on 18 July
2008 with a surface location some 5 km’s north of the
Kennedy-1H well and on trend from producing wells in the
adjacent acreage. This well has been drilled vertically to
approximately 12,000 feet as a pilot hole where it was
logged, plugged back and sidetracked with the intention
being to drill up to a 6,000 foot horizontal section within
the upper horizon of the chalk. *The pilot hole encountered
a chalk section correlated to the Sugarloaf-1 well but some
40% thicker. This was anticipated as the seismic data
indicates that the chalk thickens in the northern portion of
the AMI.* Whilst horizontal operations are not completed at
the date of this Report, higher gas readings and flares
have been observed whilst drilling which have been further
elevated when activities are undertaken that reduce the
bottom hole pressure in the well. This would suggest that
the reservoir is acting in a favourable manner with
hydrocarbon ingress into the well bore. We are encouraged
by the indications received to date and are looking forward
to well completion and production testing.

*40% thicker chalks..  *

WOW!!!


----------



## Hatchy

I with that punter at 27.5c would drop his asking price a few notches. I want to pick up some more today. Actually I want to pick up more most days, but spare cash is hard to find....


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Hatchy,

Just buy them at 27.5c and boost the share price for the rest of us 

What's 2.5c per share anyway if this well flows like its meant to


----------



## Hatchy

well it's 3.5c which is 14 odd %

I believe it's worth more than 27c, but when it was trading lower than that yesterday and nothing has changed today I don't think it's worth 27c for this instance in time based on the market conditions.


----------



## estseon

agentm,

re the CoP article that you posted on the other board.

"The temporary pullback in the lower 48 U.S. states and Canada would result only in delays, not cancellations, of projects and would be part of a broader effort by ConocoPhillips to watch costs and prioritize spending, Chairman and Chief Executive James Mulva said in a conference call after release of the company’s third-quarter earnings report....Falling commodity prices have spurred ConocoPhillips to watch oil and gas project costs "very, very closely," Mulva said....But Mulva said the company has begun to notice a "softness" in rental rates for drilling rigs and other service cost reductions that could help improve the economics of projects going forward...."

What's your take in advance of the publishing of the full cap-ex budget in December?

Production from the Austin chalks should be relatively cheap, should it not? Gas, light oil, infrastructure nearby, refineries not too far away, local market, onshore, skilled labour force on tap, equipment and supplies easily accessed, no security problems, certainty of law....just name it and it seems to be optimised.


----------



## Agentm

i listened to the presentation and q&A the other day.. the way he spoke was that some more high risk or higher cost projects will be calmed down, but he was saying they would possibly step up in the lower 48 on some new projects, and said in december the details would be announced.

my view is that cote d'or is already being upscaled into full swing, with permits for many completions and COP looking at the deeper plays below the chalks in their lateest marlene olsen well. i look forward to their results as it means a lot for kennedy to be able to get superior connectivity in the shale.

COP cant stop or slow down cote d'or.. its just about to get a whole lot of new rigs arrive to bring the exploration and development of the live oak region into a more meaningful position.

kowalik is imho a lot further ahead of where i thought it was..


----------



## estseon

"...kowalik is imho a lot further ahead of where i thought it was.. "

Now that is a real tease! Clearly not the length of the lateral because that is now revealed. I don't think that you're talking about completion operations either - not taken in the context of your comment on CoP likely activity (thanks for the additional comment on Mr Mulva's comments). We'll just have to wait for the flow results.

TCEI now has 5 permits approved for the remaining 3 of the four well programme (?) Looking at your excellent map, Gonzales and Reckling are up in the north near Kowalik where the 40% additional thickness of the formation is reported. Albert & Weston are further south either side of Kennedy but drilling SE instead of NW and Rudolf is nowhere in particular (NE of Weston but well south of the northern 3). Any guess on which will be spudded next?


----------



## Agentm

two ways you can explore i guess..

one is to have a crack at the region and step your wells far apart and try to gauge what the region has to offer, the other is to do wells closer in and take advantage of what you know you have already got and expand on it..

imho a project this size needs bold step out exploration wells throughout the acreages.. so my guess is that we have no real  zone 1 connectivity in the south. imho a more southern well may be next.. but in all seriousness i think the decision on the next well would still be up for debate.


----------



## estseon

"...so my guess is that we have no real zone 1 connectivity in the south..."
============================================================

Looking at your map, the most southerly of the drilled wells was Baker 1 and that is supposed to have nearly blown them off the planet (until they blocked it).

Most certainly, it is further west and the formation can change over short distances (the +40% thickness in the north, which is no great distance in reality) but is there any basis to query connectivity in the south at this stage?


----------



## Agentm

estseon..

the pressure in sugarloaf 1 was noticed!



i saw somewhere you commented on the amount of proppant used in the petrohawk fracc of the eagleford..

can you recall how much proppant was used in the kennedy fracc?


----------



## Agentm

_10 July 2008

KENNEDY -1H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude (“TCEI”) that the second stage of fracture stimulation took place on Thursday 3rd July. In preparation for the  stimulation, *an additional three sets of perforations, each 3 ft long, were placed in between those used for the first stimulation in the bottom 600 ft of the well*. 

*The fracture operation successfully placed approximately 100,000 lbs of high strength proppant into the fractures before high pumping pressures prevented the full program being completed, this represents 90% of the planned fluids and 50% of the planned proppant.*

Flow back has recovered about 1,200 barrels of the 6,540 barrels of fluids pumped during fracture operations. Trace amounts of gas and condensate were also recovered towards the end of this period.
Operations are now in progress to clean out any fracture proppant that was left in the well bore as a result of the early termination of fracture operations. After that, flow-back and testing operations will resume. Further announcements will be made as the results become available._

a 600 foot section getting a planned 200,000 pounds of proppant, which means *2,000,000 pounds would be used in a 6000 foot completion.. thats some staggering amounts of proppant *..

i shale remind you of what they used in the eagleford again


_ HOUSTON, Oct. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Petrohawk Energy Corporation ("Petrohawk" or the "Company") (NYSE: HK) announced a significant new natural gas field discovery in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. This new field in La Salle County, Texas, was discovered after extensive regional subsurface and seismic mapping, geochemical analysis and petrophysical study. The Company has leased over 100,000 net acres in what it believes to be the most prospective areas for commercial production from the Eagle Ford Shale. The field is located immediately south of the Stuart City Field, which is on the Edwards Reef Trend that extends across South Texas.

"This discovery folds perfectly into our portfolio of unconventional resource assets," said Dick Stoneburner, Chief Operating Officer. "Petrohawk's staff has extensive experience in the acquisition and development of horizontal plays as exhibited by our results in the Haynesville Shale and Fayetteville Shale plays. Leveraging that expertise to uncover new opportunities like the Eagle Ford Shale adds significantly to our playbook."

The discovery well, the STS #241-1H, was drilled to an approximate true vertical depth of 11,300 feet during which extensive coring and open hole logging was performed.* An approximate 3,200-foot lateral was drilled and subsequently fracture stimulated with over two million pounds of sand in ten stages. The well was placed on production at a rate of 9.1 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (7.6 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and 250 barrels of condensate per day)*. A confirmation well, the second well drilled on the project, the Dora Martin #1H, which is approximately 15 miles from the discovery well, has been drilled, cored and logged. The quality of the Eagle Ford Shale in this well appears to be superior to that found in the STS #241-1H. The Company is currently drilling the lateral on this second well. A third well is expected to spud by mid-November._

imho the kennedy is not in the chalks at all, and the fracture was done in the deepest part of the kennedy well which is more in the shaley eagleford regions which was equally overpressurised and it was hardly able to get half the proppant in because of pressure issues..

those pressure issues and fracc techniques will be resolved also in the near future imho, conoco did immediately go for the deeper regions in marlene olsen after seeing what the kennedy well did..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## seasprite

Agentm

what downhole pressures are we expecting to see with Kowalik-1H , I see AUT have noted 0.76 psi/ft in their annual for the adjacent sugarkane field. Are COP reporting similar pressures.


----------



## Agentm

i know estseon did some downhole pressure calculations based on the reported mudweights,  8300 psi was his figure i believe.. 

imho it is hard to be accurate but those sort of psi figures are commonly talked in all the wells..


----------



## seasprite

Agentm said:


> i know estseon did some downhole pressure calculations based on the reported mudweights,  8300 psi was his figure i believe..
> 
> imho it is hard to be accurate but those sort of psi figures are commonly talked in all the wells..




Thanks , I wasn't sure if I was doing my calculation right after seeing 8000+ psi.

I got about the same figure using a 10 degree inclination and assuming a perfect triangle with a 4500ft lateral gave a vertical depth of about 11,000
and    11,000 ft X 0.76 psi/ft = 8360 psi . I am not sure what the correct inclination was but 10 degrees kept popping into my head for some reason.

That would explain a 50ft flare don't you think.


----------



## Agentm

thats the flare on my avatar.. a reminder that kowalik was constantly trying to produce gas throughout the entire lateral, and 50 foot flares were quite often experienced.

this hand book is very useful if your into maths..  estseon!!

http://books.google.com.au/books?id...X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#PPA423,M1


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Interesting to see several relatively large trades take place in the last half hour this afternoon, pushing the share price up to 30c at the close (+22.5%). Today was the third biggest volume traded in the last 3 months.

Maybe there's some extra positive news in the next announcement, likely due tomorrow.

Fingers crossed!


----------



## Agentm

something is about to give out there..

something is brewing... 

i  agree on the announcements side of things also, well sensed!!


----------



## estseon

this hand book is very useful if your into maths.. estseon!!

I've bookmarked it for future reference!

Seriously though, it's not worth putting guesswork into sophisticated equations. Logic would suggest that the pressure in the Eagle Ford will not be much different from the chalks - they've had a lot of time to balance out.

The fraccing does make sense (Kennedy) but the choice of proppant doesn't. The expensive bauxite based proppant (wasn't it?) was chosen because it was thought that the marble hard chalk would crush the cheaper sand (used by Petrohawk) - I haven't checked back but I thought that was the story at the time. If it's shale, it will be a lot softer than chalk. And it's not brittle like marble hard chalk.

So, what happened? Did they really not know what they had drilled through? Was the fracc only partly successful because it was designed for chalk rather than shale. Was the problem the liquid/proppant mix? 

And how much of the lateral is actually in the shale?

Lots of questions - let's hope that they have the answers. Perhaps the JV will wait to see what answers CoP comes up with


----------



## seasprite

I was way off the beaten track as far as inclination of the horizontal goes , the actual inclination was 60 degrees(ann 27 Aug 08). Wow that is one impressive piece kit they are using . You're right , leave the calculations to the professionals , there are too many variables to consider . Here is website about directional drilling if anyone is interested.

www.pathfinderlwd.com/services/directional_drilling.asp


Looking forward to results within next few days.


----------



## Agentm

seasprite..

they came in high @ 60degrees.. they did not want to miss the formation,, so the first part of the lateral section of the well is finding the chalks.. hence the first report indicating gas reading that were increasing.. when they found the extremely hot and overpressurised chalks they would have gone straight and level so to speak....  my view is  that well was in the zone all the way.. it got a lot of connectivity..


----------



## Sunburnt Land

More strong buying activity this morning, following on from some spirited late buying yesterday arvo. Someone is quite happy to be picking up a heap of shares at 30c.

Do they know of something in the upcoming announcement that we don't?


----------



## Agentm

29 October 2008

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT SUGARLOAF JOINT VENTURE

Adelphi Energy (Adelphi) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Kowalik -1H 

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that at 10:30pm Texas time on 25 October 2008 the Kowalik -1H well had been completed and the Patterson #130 rig was released and commenced demobilisation to the next drilling location.

Once the well site has been cleared, preparations will begin for the production test of Kowalik – 1H, which is anticipated to commence within the next 3 days. Results will be announced as soon as possible thereafter. The location has been tied into production and export facilities so that when the test is complete the production can be immediately switched to sales.

Weston -1H

Adelphi has also been advised by TCEI that the next well to be drilled within the Sugarloaf AMI will be the Weston -1H well. The well site is located approximately 1.5km to the east of the Kennedy -1H well and it is designed with a 6,000 feet horizontal section drilled to the south east. The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that produced flares while drilling the Kowalik -1H well and which has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage. The well design continues to build upon the knowledge gained from recent operations and offset data.

The well is planned to take 65 days from spud date which is anticipated within the next week.


so weston is about to spud and production within a week..


----------



## forfunsake

Rig released and commenced demobilisation to next site

Preparations for production testing on Kowalik - 1H

Location has been tied into production and export facilities so that when testing completed production can be immediately switched to sales.

Sounds like they know what they have before testing and it is positive.

Been a holder for a long time and might get something back soon.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

"The location has been tied into production and export facilities so that when the test is complete *the production can be immediately switched to sales*."

Payday!!!


----------



## seasprite

Agentm said:


> 29 October 2008
> 
> Once the well site has been cleared, preparations will begin for the production test of Kowalik – 1H, which is anticipated to commence within the next 3 days.




What the ??? tell us now you swines !!! . Another week before we know flow rates . Pay them double time with a double shift and let's get crackin.


----------



## Agentm

*The Kowalik-1H horizontal well in the Sugarloaf AMI is preparing to carry out a
production test following a succession of strong gas shows including flares up to 50 feet in height which were encountered while drilling the upper Austin Chalk.*

*The Kennedy-1H horizontal well is producing condensate from a limited section of the horizontal borehole within the lower Austin Chalk at a rate of 30 barrels per day plus 100,000 cubic of gas per day with no water.*
Subsequent to the end of the quarter, Adelphi has been announced as the winning bidder of an onshore exploration block in Indonesia. A farmin by two international companies to this acreage has already been negotiated, subject to finalisation of the Production Sharing Contract (PSC); full details will be provided once Adelphi has concluded all contractual arrangements.

The Wisteria-1 exploration well spudded in August 2008. The well did not encounter any sandstone at the Puffin Formation level, the Montara Formation sandstones were tight, and the Plover Formation sands were water wet. Consequently, the well was plugged and abandoned.

In the Yemen Block 7, seismic data processing of the 280 km² 3D seismic survey acquired during June and July 2008 has commenced.

In Yemen Block 74, regional geological and geophysical work continued during the quarter. Preparations are being made to acquire seismic data in the second quarter of 2009.

During the quarter a total of 13,479,399 shares were issued at 32 cents per share pursuant to a one for six rights issue to raise approximately $4.3 million before costs. This has increased the Company’s issued share capital to some 120 million shares. 


EXPLORATION

Sugarloaf Project – Onshore Texas, USA (Adelphi 20.0%)

Activity within the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) in west Texas continues to be a major focus for the Company. The area under lease has now expanded to some 23,000 acres (93 square kilometers).

Adelphi continues to be very encouraged by the high levels of production and appraisal activity in the Sugarkane Austin Chalk field area located adjacent to the Sugarloaf AMI.

Kowalik -1H Well
The Kowalik -1H spudded on 18 July 2008 and reached total depth (TD) of 16,483 feet on 19 October. *During the drilling of the approximately 4,600 feet lateral within the upper Austin Chalk several gas flares were encountered, many of which ranged from 35 – 50 feet in height.* Gas readings were consistently higher than 2,000 units. At the end of October 2008 the well was in the process of being completed pending a flowtest.
If successful, the well can be put on production in a matter of days because a pipeline to a nearby gas pipeline has already been constructed.

Kennedy -1H Well
*During the previous quarter, two fracture stimulations were carried out over a 600 feet interval at the toe of the completed well.* A total of 7 perforations, each of 2 to 3 feet in length, were made over the two frac treatments.
The well flowed on test at a maximum rate of 0.43 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) + 106 barrels of condensate per day (bcpd) before declining over a 3 week period to flow at an average rate of 0.18 mmscfd + 35 bcpd. Flow was not stabilized and only a small percentage of the frac fluid was recovered, indicating that the flow from the well had not adequately cleaned up and the potential flow rate had not been fully evaluated.
In order to evaluate future productive potential further, a small production facility was installed to flow and clean up the well. Production commenced on 2 October 2008 at rates of 0.2 mmscfd + 60 bcpd. By the end of October, the rate had declined to 0.1 mmscfd + 30 bcpd. No water is being produced.
The flow rates obtained from this well are modest, partly because the well was drilled in the lower part of the Chalk, and partly because the lateral has not been effectively stimulated over a significant portion of the wellbore.
Information obtained from the producing operations will help determine whether further improvements to flow rate are possible by alternative methods of perforating and stimulating the remaining 3,000 feet of horizontal section behind pipe.

Weston -1H Well
Weston-1H will be spudded following the Kowalik well. It is located approximately 1.5 km east of the Kennedy-1H well and the horizontal section will be drilled in a southeasterly direction targeting the upper Austin Chalk. The planned total depth is 18,405 feet with an approximately 6,000 feet lateral. *The dry hole cost of this well was paid for during the quarter.*

Blocks 7 and 74 – Yemen (Adelphi 8.5%)

Block 7
*Seismic processing of the 280 km² of 3D seismic acquired during June and July 2008 has commenced.* The results will be available late in 2008, and will be interpreted ahead of *drilling two planned wells early in the third quarter of 2009*. Adelphi will be *targeting a similar play-type to the nearby 110mmbbls Habban (Al Uqlah) field that is expected to produce around 32,000 bopd by the end of 2009.*
The total remaining work commitment for this block comprises the drilling of four wells.

Block 74
Regional geological and geophysical work continued during the quarter and preparations are being made to acquire seismic data in the second quarter of 2009. Results from the regional work have upgraded the prospectivity of the block based upon the likely presence of source rock extending over a much greater area than previously thought.
The total work commitment for this block is for 250 km 2D seismic and the drilling of three wells.

NEW VENTURE ACTIVITIES

Indonesia
Adelphi was advised on 20 October 2008 that it was the winning bidder for the South Bengara II Block onshore East Kalimantan.
Award of the block is conditional upon entering into a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Government of the Republic of Indonesia.
A farmin by two international companies to this acreage upon successfully being awarded the PSC has been negotiated. Full details will be provided once Adelphi has concluded all contractual arrangements.


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## Hatchy

*The Kennedy-1H horizontal well is producing condensate from a limited section of the horizontal borehole within the lower Austin Chalk at a rate of 30 barrels per day plus 100,000 cubic of gas per day with no water.

*This is constantly reducing isn't it? 

_*In order to evaluate future productive potential further, a small production facility was installed to flow and clean up the well. Production commenced on 2 October 2008 at rates of 0.2 mmscfd + 60 bcpd. By the end of October, the rate had declined to 0.1 mmscfd + 30 bcpd. No water is being produced.*_


Kowalik: 
I suspect we should hear as early as tomorrow if not monday about the production test. That's considering the usual 48 hour turn around. 

I hope that they don't have the same closing up failures as they've had with Kennedy.


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## Agentm

hey hatchy.. gotta give you a little bit of an idea about kowalik and the upper chalks. vs  kennedy in the shale/chalk deeps..

upper chalks are proven to be flowing, in some wells like kunde 1, which is a vertical, it has flowed for some two years!! 

although burlington resources (now conocophillips) fracced kunde 1, they believe its flowing on the fracc stimulation alone and thats whats very exciting about these chalks.

due to the overpressurised chalks and the shale below, they are having great difficulty in devising an adequate fracc process for the deeper zone, so in a well like kennedy, the formation appears to be folding in on the proppant and reducing the connectivity, at kennedy they only fracced 600 feet, as they really dont want to go for a full fracc on the entire lateral until they are absolutely sure of success. There are many thousands of feet of well left for them to fracc later, imho, with the current focus by conoco on the lower zones in live oak, it will mean they will be fraccing these regions themselves soon, and with TCEI being a partner with them, their understanding and refinements on the fracc process can be used and replicated in kennedy later when its understood what things work.. we cannot afford to do the R&D, so imho kennedy will not be fracced until we see conoco fracc some shale themselves..

now the chalks are different, it sits above the shale. current thinking is that these wells will behave just as regular chalks well will that are not overpressurised, in that they will flow at very high rates on any occasion they encounter natural fractures..  and there is compelling evidences that fracc stimulation can be also utilised on these chalks because they differ from the lesser pressurised giddings and pearsall, and the sugarkane chalks are very high in porosity and permeability.. all extremely ggod and the primary reason why a corporation like conocophillips would lease up and explore as  a major project on some 250,000+ acres.. cote d'or.. (hill of gold)

imho kowalik would not be a contender for a fracc operation, maybe in 15 years they would do that to stimulate the well when the charge is lesser and the rock more depleted..  but imho they will let it fly as it is..


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## sam76

So Nioka, you still selling (read holding back) ADI to get into AUT?

Of course it's your choice but with the limited amount of shares available it has a detrimental affect on the SP.

just mho


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## Hatchy

Thanks agent, 
That has cleared up a few worries i had - I knew they didn't drill Kennedy properly, but I didn't have it together about them getting into the shale and that being the reason why it's closing in on itself. 

You think it will last 15 years without a frac? That's substantial! 
They must have encountered some decent natural fractures then. 

Will a natural fracture close down when the pressure lowers?


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## Agentm

no i think the 15 years is just me talking.. its very early days, and they are learning all about the formation every time it is drilled.. there is no doubt about the upper chalks zone, its extremely attractive, but the deeper zones interest me a lot as i really believ that tom kelly from eme was not talking through his hat when he said the lower zones could easily double the potential reserves of the sugarakane.. i think he was being conservative myself..

remember 80% of the gas is condensate, so 20% goes to the pipeline abd 80% is separated and the oil trucked off..

$us dollar is really in a different place to a few months ago is it not??


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## Lucky_Country

Pipeline already there sales are imminent and Weston 1 already set tospud if that is not confidence for you I'm not sure what is.
Throw in Yemen and Indonesia this company has a big future all to be off the cash generated from Sugarkane field.
Yemen and Indonesia along with Sugarkane development make 2009 a real exciting year


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## Hatchy

If it's 80% condensate - I doubt the sales will be made up of much Gas?

Wouldn't there be more money in the condensate? 

So there's confidence in having a gas pipeline - but I think it's also convenience don't you think? That way they can get off the condensate without worrying about the Gas.


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## Agentm

Lucky_Country.. 

right now i am in a state of shock, the well is hooked up, there is only a workover rig needed and they can clean up the well, but in all honesty, i was not expecting the number of storage tanks are online on that site!!  in all honesty i was not anticipating that..

now i am really looking forward to the flow rates..


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## seasprite

Agentm said:


> Lucky_Country..
> 
> right now i am in a state of shock, the well is hooked up, there is only a workover rig needed and they can clean up the well, but in all honesty, i was not expecting the number of storage tanks are online on that site!!  in all honesty i was not anticipating that..
> 
> now i am really looking forward to the flow rates..




sounds like you have a secret webcam set up onsite agentm . Flow rates are bound to be good but I want to see some figures (yesterday). Let's hope the Dow doesn't affect the good news to come.


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## Dukey

Agentm said:


> Lucky_Country..
> 
> right now i am in a state of shock, the well is hooked up, there is only a workover rig needed and they can clean up the well, but in all honesty, i was not expecting the number of storage tanks are online on that site!!  in all honesty i was not anticipating that..
> 
> now i am really looking forward to the flow rates..




Its been a long wait for the faithful Agent M  and over something like 2 years or more (?) ... you've done a great job keeping everyone informed and motivated.   Your time and effort to share your knowledge and enthusiasm has been much appreciated. You'll deserve your payday when it comes. Omedeto Gozaimasu.... honto!!!  
Really getting to the pointy end of the deal now - very exiting.   And as you say - the AUD-USD rate will be helping out nicely when the flow  starts.... and no doubt the POO will be on the way up again soon..... All very good signs for ADI's income and the SP. That said -  in this market - I don't expect sp to react as much as it otherwise might have, but there should be something to smile about fairly soon...

Would be very interesting to see just how many ASF ADI holders there are at the moment!!!
-D..... still here


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## Gspot

I'm still holding too, thanks to AgentM and his great knowledge and research.
Been with ADI since 2006, so I'm ready for some good news. I'm still keen for the full moon party, when this baby runs. 
Bout $3 Should get me to Kosamui.


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## tomcat

Still here as well, been in for what seems like forever but really only a couple of years.

The fundamentals have never changed, just timing unfortunately...I think that the Kow is about to let us know what this play can produce.

Well done to Agent for all his research...Kowalik is only the beginning!


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## solomon

I am a relatively recent holder, but am excited over what is about to happen. EME was up 39% last night in the UK - all the best for all holders.


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## Sunburnt Land

Good sign that Empyrean (18% interest in Sugarloaf?) has surged in the UK the past couple days. Up almost 50%! ADI should do likewise very soon.

Can someone please post the current buyer and seller market depth for ADI? There's a glitch with my online broker this morning.

Cheers.


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## solomon

Here is the market depth of a minute or so ago, I can't think of what else to  say here, go ADI, go adi, GO ADI !!.


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## Sunburnt Land

Cheers solomon,

The share price will take off when the day traders latch on, after the flow test results are announced.


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## seasprite

Sunburnt Land said:


> Cheers solomon,
> 
> The share price will take off when the day traders latch on, after the flow test results are announced.




I really hate mary poppins but I love this song today "Super cali  fragilistic expi alidocious" . 

Extreme pressure buying in correspondence to the extreme pressure well . That's what we like to see!


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## solomon

Go you good thing GO ! EME up significantly at the open again in London.

Without doing a full company analysis and comparison, until recently EME (18% of our acreage) and ADI (20%) had reasonably similar prices hovering in the low 20s, EME just hit 47c before falling back to 43c !! Woohoo ! )


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## solomon

Oct 31 (Reuters) - British oil and gas explorer Empyrean Energy Plc said on Friday a Texan well flowed gas and condensate on test at commercial rates, sending its shares up almost 7 percent in early trade.

Empyrean said the Sugarloaf Prospect, Block A-4 well, a joint venture with Texas Crude Energy Inc, had consistent flow rates in excess of 2 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfgpd) and 200 barrels of oil per day (bopd) over the test period.

The company said the initial flow rates during the test period were as high as 2.5 mmcfgpd and 260 bopd, adding that work was in progress to connect the well to a sales pipeline and put it on long-term production.

The sales pipeline and production facility are likely to be connected in December, Empyrean said. The company has a 7.5 percent working interest in the well.

http://www.hemscott.com/news/static/tfn/item.do?newsId=69778186210981


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## solomon

Can someone remind me the real name of the block A-4 well?

This news release seems confusing? Has the reporter got their wires crossed? Anyway can't wait to hear what Kowalik does!


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## fflintoff

International Herald Tribune

Hot small caps - Empyrean Energy up on positive well result
Published: October 31, 2008



LONDON: Following is a roundup of key small cap movers on the London stock market on Friday.
10:19GMT -Empyrean Energy up on positive well result
Shares in AIM-listed oil and gas exploration group Empyrean Energy jump as much as 29 percent after the group gives a positive update on its Sugarloaf Prospect in Texas. The company said the Block A-4 well had consistent flow rates in excess of 2.0 million cubic feet of gas per day.
Craig Howie, an oil analyst at Blue Oar Securities, said the flow results were "very positive news" for the company and bring the full commercialisation of the SugarLoaf Project a step nearer. "Flow rates from the A-4 well are commercial and will be put into long-term production. This bodes well for the full development of the field," he said.

http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2008/10/31/business/OUKBS-UK-MARKETS-STOCKSNEWS-UK-SMALL.php


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## solomon

This report has a little more in it, check out Tom kelly's comment.

"Shares in Empyrean Energy were given a boost this morning after the company reported that A-4 well on Block A of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field had flowed at commercial rates.  Empyrean Energy has a 7.5% working interest in the well; the operator is Texas Crude Energy Inc.

Texas Crude informed Empyrean that on flow testing the well returned initial rates as high as 2.5 million cubic feet of gas per day and 260 barrels of oil per day with flow tubing pressure of 4400 psi.  

Empyrean Executive Director Tom Kelly added:

“This un-stimulated flow from a 1,500 odd foot interval of horizontal well is a great result for the A-4 well. This further de-risks the project and provides another successful well that will shortly go into production to a sales pipeline. There is still great potential for wells that have longer horizontal completions in the productive zone to have even better or multiples of these flow rates without stimulation – and we already know that stimulation can achieve excellent results.”

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...commercial-flow-rates-from-a-4-well-3340.html


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## solomon

Do you think Tom Kelly had Kowalik in mind when he said ...

"There is still great potential for wells that have longer horizontal completions in the productive zone to have even better or multiples of these flow rates without stimulation"


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## Agentm

From EME Block A

TCEI JV Block A-4 Well

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") that the well has been opened to flow during testing and has flowed on a choked back basis using 10/64" choke at initial rates as high as 2.5 million cubic feet of gas per day ("mmcfgpd") and 260 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") *with flow tubing pressure of 4400 psi*. This equates approximately to a gas equivalent rate (10:1) of 5.1 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day.




Flow rates over the test period have consistently been in excess of 2.0 mmcfgpd and 200 bopd using 10/64" choke. During flow back operations the well has continued to clean up. It is understood that the operator intends to continue flow back and testing for a day or so and then shut the well in temporarily while production facilities and a sales pipeline are connected to the well. *Pipeline sales are typically with the well wide open at a flow tubing pressure of 1000 psi.*




Preparations for the sales pipeline connection and production facility have already commenced. The pipeline and facility are expected to be connected during December 2008.




Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director - Tom Kelly said "This un-stimulated flow from a 1500 odd foot interval of horizontal well is a great result for the A-4 well. This further de-risks the project and provides another successful well that will shortly go into production to a sales pipeline. *There is still great potential for wells that have longer horizontal completions in the productive zone to have even better or multiples of these flow rates without stimulation - and we already know that stimulation can achieve excellent results."*


choked back a fair bit imho, i wouldnt be surprised if the baker 2 well produced at far higher rates after choke adjustments and after clean up.


this picture below is kowalik flaring on test

kinda suggests were in for nice announcement on monday imho


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## seasprite

Agentm said:


> Flow rates over the test period have consistently been in excess of 2.0 mmcfgpd and 200 bopd using 10/64" choke.




That's a very small choke indeed . If they double the radius of choke , area increases by a square relationship as we all know . So those are very good results . Very similar to another company operating in the Texas area . Im impressed. Well done Agentm


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## estseon

solomon said:


> Can someone remind me the real name of the block A-4 well?
> 
> This news release seems confusing? Has the reporter got their wires crossed? Anyway can't wait to hear what Kowalik does!




Hi Solomon

A-4 is Baker 2.

A-1 is Kunde 3 (cemented liner/fracced/did nothing/closed in/re-opened/flowed/acid fracc/flow x 6)

A-2 is Kunde 2 (re-drilled vertical used to house sensor equipment to monitor Kunde 3 fracc)

A-3 is Baker 1 (about the same length as Baker 2 - nearly blew the rig into orbit but then they lost a drill string and partially blocked it)

A-5 is Marlene Olsen ("vertical" targeting "all 3 zones" but will be looking at the shales - agentm is following this one with interest - probably limited permit to vertical because there was no plan where to kick out a lateral - exploratory well)


Kowalik flared from 1,200 ft along the lateral - i.e. for over 3,000ft of drilling.


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## Agentm

i hear that it looks like kowalik is burning tyres right now..thick black smoke is coming from the site.. condensate is what i think is causing that.

again i am looking forward to the monday announcement.. these chalks oil wells are remarkable imho


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## solomon

Thanks etseon, I was confused, not the reporter. I feel like a kid waiting for christmas at the moment!

As it turns out I won't be anywhere near a computer on monday, so I won't be able to watch things unfold.

Anyway, best luck to all holders.

Thanks Agentm for the photo! What are all the white circles, rain, or dust in the lens or something?


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## Agentm

solomon said:


> Thanks Agentm for the photo! What are all the white circles, rain, or dust in the lens or something?





the picture does not do either the flare nor the roar that it gave off any justice..

the picture is about 45 degrees from behind at least.. to your seeing a flare disappear away from you.. 

regarding the particles on the lens.. condensate and smoke was real thick in the air there.. 

all of yesterday the previous nights flaring and smoke during the day from kowalik has been the talking point of the county.. 

monday morning pre open the jvp will be announcing.. i think the large separator, and the 8 X 500 bbl capacity tanks (4000 barrel max capacity) to store the condensate on site will be well used, and soon we will be learning if they will be having multiple tankers arriving per day to the site or not i guess..


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## Evangeline

well i'm back in.  this is looking pretty exciting.  finally testing the upper chalks 

good luck guys


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## Agentm

Kowalik -1H

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that on 31 October 2008 operations commenced to unload the Kowalik -1H well. As at 6am Texas time on 2 November 2008 the well was still cleaning up and was flowing gas, condensate, drilling and completion fluids. Once the well is fully unloaded, which may require a second chemical wash to remove mud from the well bore, the fully stabilised production rate will be advised.

Weston -1H

Adelphi has also been advised by TCEI that the Weston -1H well spudded on 2 November 2008. At 6am the well was drilling ahead at a depth of 392 feet. The well site is located ~1.5km to the east of the Kennedy -1H well which is designed with a 6,000 feet horizontal section drilled to the south east.
As previously advised, the well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in four wells in the adjacent acreage and in which the Kowalik -1H well has been drilled.


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## Hatchy

Well that's a little disappointing isn't it? Surely it shouldn't take so long! Last chance to buy some more before we see some blue skies?


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## banska bystrica

You're kidding aren't you? We've waited two years for commercial flow and you can't wait another day or two for clean up and production figures.


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## Agentm

a bit disappointing in what regard? 

i believe the well was briefly flowing gas and condensate into the sales pipline.

second clean up is on the cards.

one thing you dont do, is put mud down the sales pipeline..

that well has given a huge oil hit, which imho made them run the separators, then imho they just went far too quick onto sales..

all kowalik needs is a good clean up..


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## seasprite

Agentm said:


> a bit disappointing in what regard?
> 
> that well has given a huge oil hit, which imho made them run the separators, then imho they just went far too quick onto sales..
> 
> all kowalik needs is a good clean up..




here is a picture of one of the processess they may use if anyone is interested
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e7/NaturalGasCondensate.png


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## sam76

Cheers for that SeaSprite.

I agree a couple more days aren't going to hurt anyone.  It just allows a bit more positive pressure on the share price.


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## red rats

Superb news IMHO, it sounds like this is going to be the one at last. I am amazed that the well has been plumbed into production piping so quickly, it shows the confidence that the JV has in the Kow even if as Agent M suggests this was a touch premature.
From my point of view the best of both worlds as the price should be at the worst stable, while at the same time enabling the believers to load up even further - great stuff.

How is the SP in Oz doing? I expct you are up a few percent.

Also hi to Agent, looks like you were pretty spot on this time!!!

Ratty


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## seasprite

Agentm said:


> second clean up is on the cards.
> 
> all kowalik needs is a good clean up..




How long do you think this second clean up will take Agentm. Do you think we may have an announcement tomorrow ?


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## Hatchy

banska bystrica said:


> You're kidding aren't you? We've waited two years for commercial flow and you can't wait another day or two for clean up and production figures.




I believe you have misintepreted what I've said.
Don't flame me for being disappointed, I was expecting full results today. I'm allowed to be disappointed for not getting them.

I've not lost hope, I've taken a further stake today as I have been doing since early 06. 

You obviously missed my comment about last chance before blue skies.

You must be in Melbourne cup mode and already have your blinkers on! 

Good luck to those having a punt tomorrow!


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## Sunburnt Land

Maybe MAD RUSH is the omen tip for the Cup, because that's what mode the buyers of ADI shares will be in when the flow rates for the Kow are released!


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## Agentm

bit perplexed by the reaction to the announcement. couldnt argue that its seen extremely negatively, but such is life hey..

re the melbourne cup 


*num du jeu* cote d'or


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## estseon

"...As at 6am Texas time on 2 November 2008 the well was still cleaning up and was flowing gas, condensate, drilling and completion fluids.  Once the well is fully unloaded, which may require a second chemical wash to remove mud from the well bore, stabilized production rates will be advised...."

Yesterday morning, Texas time, it was still flowing drilling gunge. I would guess that they will first have to wait until that flow diminishes to something relatively insignificant and then give it a further scrub with their chemicals. Then they will have to flow it clean again. Once is is clean (enough) they will have to connect it all up again to the separator etc and flow test.

They will continue the test until "stabilised production rates" are achieved.

I don't see how timings can be predicted.

It doesn't sound like a three day job but maybe.....

They've not had to use any type of pressure hosing to do the job - the formation pressure seems to be doing it for them without assistance.

Despite all the gunge, it is flowing both gas and condensates.


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## Agentm

quattro44 - 3 Nov'08 - 10:08 - 43399 of 43409

It never ceases to amaze me how share prices react to news.
The key words here are : 'flowing gas and condensate' and 'production rates' These add up to only one thing : They fully expect more flow and to produce from this well.
It can take days to clean up one of these wells. That is alot of horizontal and to get all the mud and fluids out, working very carefully is some undertaking. It is clear that after only after a day or so they already have flow which they had throughout drilling, so it should only improve from here. But what do I know?
q44


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## fflintoff

*Aimzine Nov 2008*

AIMZINE
Featured Companies Update 

Nov 2008
“Once again our Aimzine featured companies have been busy and most of them have had positive news to report. If you are looking for a share with plenty of exciting news flow, look no further than Empyrean Energy. During October the Company issued no less than 8 RNS statements updating shareholders on progress with the Company’s Sugarloaf project. Empyrean’s share price during October has been pretty ‘exciting’ as well, drifting down from 30.5p to 19.75p up until 27 October and then doubling back up to over 40p in the last 4 days.

The latest announcement on Friday 31 October reported that the A-4 well (Empyrean’s interest = 7.5%) was flowing gas and condensate at commercial rates. The A-4 well will be connected to production in December. Tom Kelly commented on this announcement by saying 'This un-stimulated flow from a 1500 odd foot interval of horizontal well is a great result for the A-4 well. This further de-risks the project and provides another successful well that will shortly go into production to a sales pipeline. There is still great potential for wells that have longer horizontal completions in the productive zone to have even better or multiples of these flow rates without stimulation - and we already know that stimulation can achieve excellent results.'

It is interesting to note that Tom is speaking of ‘great potential for wells that have longer horizontal completions’ – could he be thinking of the Kowalik well, with a horizontal section of 4600 feet, which was completed on 25 October. Empyrean have reported on a number of occasions that the Kowalik well had produced significant gas flares. The two photographs here show flaring at Kowalik. Production test results for Kowalik are expected any day now and we would gather from Tom’s comments that he is optimistic about the outcome. Empyrean has an 18% interest in Kowalik. 

Finally, on Empyrean Energy, the company announced that drilling is due to commence shortly on the Weston Well (Empyrean’s interest = 18%). This is another well with a planned long horizontal section”


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## seasprite

Any ideas on Bengara II? I am assuming/guessing it is this block that was a mandatory relinquishment by Continental-Geopetro.

View attachment bengara_maps02.pdf


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## tomcat

Doesnt look like conocophillips have any concerns with the play, yet another well application has gone in!!

This is the application by Burlington in Live Oak for a directional well called Gonzales

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...blicQuery=Y&name=GONZALES&univDocNo=485350278


How many rigs will they have there soon I wonder?


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## Agentm

looking at the gonzales well, if i got my bearings right i think its practically twinning marlene olsen, or i should say olsen baker..

not seen any sign of the rigs that will drill out these permits for conocophillips as yet, imho they will be arriving in the next 30 - 60 days..

i would be very surprised if eme is going to be able to be a partner in these wells all at once myself.  the 23,000 acres we have are going to keep the jvp on its toes over the coming 6 -12 months, enormous work ahead..


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## estseon

EME only has the opportunity to participate in a further 3 wells in BlocK A if the split of the "16 well programme" is equal between the 2 blocks, as suggested by some on ADVFN. If Kunde 3 is now actually producing for sales, that will help. And the Baker twins will help come the New Year. Over on the Block of mutual interest, Weston must have been paid for. Whilst they have only 1 rig operating, there is a chance that Kowalik may pay for well 3 but should for well 4. Weston should be on stream by well 4 spud. I'm not too worried about cash at the moment. Once they have production, they should be able to raise 6 month money at least - poor show if they can't. On the positive side, CoP did report softening in rig hire costs.


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## Agentm

RNS Number : 3610H
  Empyrean Energy PLC
  04 November 2008

     4 November 2008
    Empyrean Energy PLC 
    ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
    Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block B, Texas USA

    Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the
USA, provides the following update on
operations on Block B which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field:

    *     Kowalik well flowing gas and condensate to sales line during test
    *     Operator planning to inject the well with mud-cleanout treatment to enhance the flow and further clean the formation

    Kowalik -1H Well 

    Empyrean has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI"), that at 6am on 3 November 2008, the Kowalik-1H well was
flowing un-stimulated to sales on test.  During the 24 hour period to 6am the well produced 937,000 cubic feet of gas, 321 barrels of oil and 14 barrels of water. The water production is considered to be predominantly drilling and
completion fluids. The well was still producing slugs of drilling mud during the period and had not fully cleaned up.

    The operator is planning to inject a mud-cleanout treatment into the wellbore in the next day or so to help mobilize any remaining drilling mud and completion fluids. Such treatments have effectively been used many times in
the Chalk at analogue and other fields to enhance the flow and clean the formation. 

    Commenting today, Empyrean Executive Director - Tom Kelly said: "We are happy to see the Kowalik well flowing to sales early in this test. The operator has not finished clean up operations; therefore we will make a further announcement as those operations are completed."


----------



## Lucky_Country

Seems a bit odd that EME have waited so long after the rest of the jvp to announce flow rates that are 2 days old.
Still some cleaning up to do so flow rates should increase.
I am looking forward to seeing what ADI have to say tommorow


----------



## maverick11

Bit weird EME would release such vague data.  Good condensate to gas though!!  But how about choke size, pressures and flow duration etc?  IMO a decent acid wash should still see many multiples of this.  No doubt the aussie JVP will be forced to release an update pre open tomorrow.  Hope they get this one wrapped up before the end of the week or all momentum will be lost


----------



## Agentm

Empyrean has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI"), that at 6am on 3 November 2008, the Kowalik-1H well was *flowing un-stimulated* to sales on test. *During the 24 hour period to 6am* the *well produced 937,000 cubic feet of gas, 321 barrels of oil* and 14 barrels of water. The water production is considered to be predominantly drilling and
completion fluids. *The well was still producing slugs of drilling mud during the period and had not fully cleaned up*.

ok looking at it three distinct things come to mind

1/ not 24 hour test period, imho less than 12

2/ un stimulated

3/ mud hits so not cleaned up


nice little acid job and away you go.. this could become a potentially much bigger producer imho.. great report..  retract all early criticism..


----------



## maverick11

Agentm, if it was less than 12 hours say 8 hours on a small choke then after an acid wash we could expect even 10x this per day i would imagine.  Quite possible and it is a long lateral afterall.  This week has been annoying - i wish they would just clarify things and get it finished and flowing


----------



## Lucky_Country

maverick11 said:


> Agentm, if it was less than 12 hours say 8 hours on a small choke then after an acid wash we could expect even 10x this per day i would imagine.  Quite possible and it is a long lateral afterall.  This week has been annoying - i wish they would just clarify things and get it finished and flowing




Just another blow on what is the real story !
I was happier with no flow rates just hold on to see what really is the production of this well not some dribble of info !


----------



## solomon

I just reminded myself that ....

We have ourselves a major 'new' gas and condensate discovery confirmed with Kowalik, and even if the volumes don't blow us all away (and they may yet do that) it doesn't matter. Without the stellar volumes the share price might not go balistic with each new announcement, but I wasn't looking to trade ADI on news anyway, and over the mid term people will come to realise the scope of our 23,000 acres. Every new well will bring in new money chasing oh so few shares.

So note to self, the groundhog is dead!

Second note to self, don't let my emotions run when the price drops a cent or two, the direction is up from here.

Hope you all enjoyed this journey in the inner workings of my mind.


----------



## barney

maverick11 said:


> Good condensate to gas though!!  :





A good point that might get overlooked Mav.

The well is "Condensate rich" at 300 barrels per million cf of gas ............. If they can get this thing flowing anywhere half decent, the amount of oil could be pretty amazing .....


----------



## gdaf

I thinik it won't be long before people start to see the picture here.....

This part of the chalks appears extrememly oil rich. If well spacings are anything like what they could be if we get 'oil' classification instead of 'gas', then look out. This will be a major producer IMO.


----------



## bazollie

New update out now on Kowalik. More of the same news , except well was shut in yesterday to commence the clean up of any muds etc. 

Maybe 2 more days then we may have some news ??

Next week should give us an idea if this process will improve the flows,

Regards
bazollie


----------



## Agentm

05 November 2008

Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT SUGARLOAF JOINT VENTURE

Adelphi Energy (Adelphi) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Kowalik -1H

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that at 6am Texas time on the 4 November 2008 that the Kowalik -1H well was flowing at an unstimulated rate to sales. During the 24 hour period prior to this time the well produced 937,000 cubic feet of gas, 321 barrels of oil and 14 barrels of water. The water production is considered to be predominantly drilling and completion fluids. The well was still producing slugs of drilling mud during the period and is not believed to have been fully cleaned up yet.

TCEI is making preparations to flush the well with a mud cleanout treatment to help mobilise any remaining drilling mud and completion fluids. Such treatments have effectively been used many times in the Chalk at analogue and other fields to enhance the flow and clean the formation. The well was shut in on 4 November 2008 in preparation for this operation.

Weston -1H

Adelphi has also been advised by TCEI that the Weston -1H well has reached a depth of 735 feet and has run and cemented the surface casing at this depth. Preparations are currently underway to commence the next hole section.
The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and gave positive indications while drilling in the Kowalik -1H well. The well design continues to build upon the knowledge gained from recent operations and offset data.


----------



## seasprite

Are the EKA holders reading the same news or not. Interesting to see ADI and AUT are up while EKA is down. I agree with your comment Agentm "It never ceases to amaze me how share prices react to news." Maybe those EKA holders don't see what ADI holders see.

My opinion is the configuration of how TCEI drilled , effectively acts as a "U tube' , where the condensate will be gravity assisted from the 60 degree inclined lateral into the vertical and held there under pressure . So this can only be seen as an excellent means of extraction of condensate. Anyone with other views , I would be very interested.


----------



## Agentm

in case you all missed it

the upper chalks are flowing gas and oil at a pretty amazing ratio..

usually you would expect some high fives and jubilation on news such as this, the chalks are way way thicker at kowalik and the oil ratio looks way higher updip

it unlikely the well is going to produce less after a clean up.. kunde 3 responded in a staggering way to some very simple clean up operations.. 

*Such treatments have effectively been used many times in
the Chalk at analogue and other fields to enhance the flow and clean the formation. *


----------



## gdaf

agentm - can you please quote the figure before and after cleanup at the kunde? I know they got some good flow rates, but wasn't sure what they were initially


----------



## Agentm

been done by a few on other boards..


copied from HC

copied from iii.co.uk, posters name "2 tcf"

recap on kunde 3

18.02.08

An attempt to fracture stimulate the first interval has resulted in the frac sand unable to be pumped even with high pressures (12,000 psi). Initial analysis suspects poor contact between the casing holes and the reservoir, as this zone in the reservoir was trying to flow whilst it was being drilled indicating good permeability. The operator is conducting an analysis of this with a possible remedy of bringing in a higher calibre perforating gun to gain better contact with the reservoir.



21.04.08

The TCEI JV Block A-1 well unexpectedly began to flow commercial quantities of gas and condensate during operations to prepare the well for a fracture stimulation and flow testing program. As of the latest report the well was flowing at approximately 0.66 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas per day) with approximately 130 bcpd (barrels of condensate per day) and 45 bwpd (barrels of water per day) with a FTP (Flow Tubing Pressure) of around 2300 psi.



30.04.08

Since the last report the TCEI JV Block A-1 well was shut in for a pressure build up test and then subsequently opened to flow. As of the latest report the well was flowing to sales at approximately 0.50 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas per day) with approximately 150 bcpd (barrels of condensate per day) and 20 bwpd (barrels of water per day) with a FTP (Flow Tubing Pressure) of around 660 psi.



28.05.08

RNS Number : 3739V Empyrean Energy PLC 28 May 2008

Empyrean Energy PLC

("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))

Sugarloaf Block A, Texas USA


SPECTACULAR CONDENSATE AND GAS FLOWS FOLLOWING A VERY LIMITED FRACTURE STIMULATION OF THE TCEI JV BLOCK A-1 WELL.

WELL FLOWING AT AN AVERAGE RATE OF OVER 950 BARRELS OF CONDENSATE WITH AN AVERAGE RATE OF OVER 2.5 MILLION CUBIC FEET OF GAS BEING AN EQUIVALENT OF AROUND 12 MILLION CUBIC FEET EQUIVALENT GAS PER DAY.

RATE IS OVER 6 TIMES THE PRE-STIMULATION RATE.
Empyrean, the AIM listed energy company with exploration and production assets in Germany and USA today announces the following initial test results from its TCEI JV Block A-1well on Block A at the Sugarloaf Project in Texas:

Fracture stimulation operations at the TCEI JV Block A-1 well commenced over the weekend using a small acid frac in 5 sets of perforations over approximately 900 feet of the horizontal section of the well. As of the latest report the well was flowing on 14/64" choke at approximately 2.5 mmcfgpd (million cubic feet gas per day) with approximately 950 bcpd (barrels of condensate per day) and nil bwpd (barrels of water per day) with a FTP ("Flow Tubing Pressure") of around 4000 psi.

On the present day prices for condensate and gas whilst converting the condensate to a gas equivalent, recent recorded equivalent gas flow rates approximate (using a 10:1 conversion) 12 mmcfepd (million cubic feet gas equivalent per day). The well flow rates had increased incrementally in the 24 hours to the last report as the well cleaned up and recovered frac fluids.

Commenting today, Empyrean Director - Tom Kelly said "These flow rates are spectacular from an acid frac of only 900 feet of horizontal with only 5 sets of perforations. To be getting such a great condensate flow is also very pleasing given where the oil price is right now. Our shareholders have been patient and it is pleasing to see this being rewarded as the completion methods learnt early on in the project are being successfully implemented by the operator."

Further announcements will be made as significant developments occur


----------



## maverick11

I wonder if they will end up doing a little acid frac at Kowalik.  Huge flows in that case could still be weeks away... the story of ADI's life!!! 

Either way, sounds like it has the potential to be bigger than Kunde 3, eventually.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Are we ever going to get the long promised results from the jvps this is becoming a joke.
I would be feeling alot happier had they not released initial flow rates especially 48 hours after the event !


----------



## maverick11

Mate, slow game I know.  Funny when you look back over the last two+ years and realise it has only been a matter of weeks away.  Unfortunately we've had a few misfortunes along the way and Kowalik definately sounds like a change of luck.  I think most of the issues have been the operator dicking us around.  It was disappointing though to see the aussie JVP releasing old news simply because they were forced after EME's announcement.  We investors always seem to be the last ones to know which i think is wrong.  Hopefully the cat will be out of the bag shortly..


----------



## Lucky_Country

maverick11 said:


> Mate, slow game I know.  Funny when you look back over the last two+ years and realise it has only been a matter of weeks away.  Unfortunately we've had a few misfortunes along the way and Kowalik definately sounds like a change of luck.  I think most of the issues have been the operator dicking us around.  It was disappointing though to see the aussie JVP releasing old news simply because they were forced after EME's announcement.  We investors always seem to be the last ones to know which i think is wrong.  Hopefully the cat will be out of the bag shortly..




Theres people who do know and are not to worried by this announcement and theres people who dont know like myself that have waited for years and are still left not knowing where the investment is going.

I think I have every right to voice my concerns even as you say it was EME prompting this flow rate announcement not ADI management.

Just unfair and frustrating imo.


----------



## estseon

There seems to be further confusion in the ASX announcements. ADI reported the flows as occurring on the 4th, whereas it was the 3rd. And AUT & EKA thought that it was last month.

The reason for the announcement remains a bit of a mystery because it did not report daily flow rates and was a snapshot taken in the middle of operations. 

However, they have reported commercial flow and that may have prompted the release.

There's no telling what the final outcome will be.


----------



## Agentm

with both petrohawk and pioneer going public on the eagleford shale. i have added to their recent slide a lot of extra data to update holders on how the region looks.. with conocophillips drilling far and wide, in colarado county right now and in dewitt as well right now..

cote d'or is significant and many operators are coming across it and seeing it deep in the eagleford and in the upper cretacious chalks region..

kowalik would be cleaning up imho and weston is drilling away.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

That's all good and well, providing the operator is competent enough to get the stuff out of the ground.


----------



## tomcat

I'm sure they are working hard to get it out of the ground...this out on oil barrel:

06.11.2008 
Sugarkane Remains The Sweet Spot In The Aurora Oil & Gas Portfolio 
These are exciting times for investors in ASX-quoted Aurora Oil & Gas, which is currently cleaning up the Kowalik-1H well on the potentially world-class Sugarkane gas and condensate field in South Texas. The well, which is operated by Texas Crude Energy, is currently producing oil, gas, water and drilling fluids: at the last count, the output was 937,000 cubic feet of gas per day, 321 barrels of oil per day, 14 barrels of water per day plus slugs of drilling mud. The well was shut in on Tuesday to allow the well to be flushed out with a mud cleanout treatment, a procedure that has been successful on similar fields in the area, after which point the company will be able to give a better idea of the sustained production capability of the well and enjoy sales income from the well. 

Aurora has a 20 per cent working interest in the well, which is part of the Sugarloaf AMI project area. This is one of three areas of the Sugarkane gas and condensate field in which Aurora has an interest, the others being the Longhorn Area (Aurora 50 per cent) and the Ipanema Area (80 per cent). This is a very interesting project. Sugarkane, which was discovered in 2006 with the Kunde-1 well and is believed to have the potential to hold the equivalent of several trillion cubic feet of gas, is believed to be a unique Austin Chalk formation with the potential to outclass the performance of classic Austin Chalk fields. 

The newcomer lies some 20 km to the south of the main Texas Austin Chalk formation, home to classics such as the Giddings and Pearsall fields that have produced over 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 600 million barrels of oil. Although still in the early stages of appraisal, the Sugarkane field is over pressured, has a higher porosity and a higher condensate-to-gas ratio than the classic Austin Chalk fields. Covering over 200,000 acres with potential gross reserves of more than 3 tcf of gas and 700 million barrels of oil, Sugarkane is possibly one of the largest undeveloped gas and condensate fields in North America – and ASX minnow Aurora has a 20 per cent chunk of over 48,000 acres of the 200,000 acre field. 

To date, eight exploration and appraisal wells have been drilled into the targeted Austin Chalk formation since the field’s discovery in 2006, three of which (Sugarloaf-1, Kennedy-1H and Kowalik-1H) lie in Aurora’s areas of interest. This isn’t easy work as operators must drill long horizontal sections through the fractured chalk reservoirs to deliver the best production rates and, as evidenced by the Kowalik-1H well, there often needs to be stimulation and clean-up operations to get the best results. It’s a learning curve to get the technical drilling and completion procedures just right, so every well drilled is valuable in terms of providing more information about what works, what doesn’t and, importantly, just how valuable this resource is shaping up to be. 

Certainly companies working up the 200,000 acre field haven’t been slow to push ahead with appraisal work. Aurora is already drilling ahead with the Weston-1H well, which is currently at a depth of more than 735 feet. The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has successful produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and which also gave positive indications while drilling in the Kowalik-1H well. Other operators are also busy appraising this potentially world class resource, with the adjacent acreage currently seeing work on one horizontal and one vertical well with a further six wells being permitted for drilling. 

These wells can be quickly tied into the local production infrastructure (the discovery well, Kunde-1, has been producing since September 2006 in line with expectations). For Aurora’s account, the Kennedy-1H well is producing 0.15 million cf/d and 44 barrels of condensate per day - this isn’t a huge amount but there remains plenty of untapped potential in the well with over 3,000 ft of horizontal section still to stimulate. More will be known about the Kowalik-1H well’s production capability in the coming weeks. And then there’s the prospect of first drilling on the Longhorn and Ipanema AMI project areas, which is expected to get underway in 2009. This promises plenty of newsflow in the months to come. 

http://oilbarrel.com/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1225936753&feed=oilbarrel_en


----------



## Agentm

learning curves here, kowalik was first chalks well for the jvp, when you consider that kennedy is not even in the chalks at all..

they know what the zone looks like and how to identify it now..and how to stay in the zone throughout

i think the last release was indicating exactly that.. 

Weston -1H
Adelphi has also been advised by TCEI that the Weston -1H well has reached a depth of 735 feet and has run and cemented the surface casing at this depth. Preparations are currently underway to commence the next hole section. 

The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and gave positive indications while drilling in the Kowalik -1H well. *The well design continues to build upon the knowledge gained from recent operations and offset data.*


----------



## mick z

Agentm said:


> learning curves here, kowalik was first chalks well for the jvp, when you consider that kennedy is not even in the chalks at all..
> 
> they know what the zone looks like and how to identify it now..and how to stay in the zone throughout
> 
> i think the last release was indicating exactly that..
> 
> Weston -1H
> Adelphi has also been advised by TCEI that the Weston -1H well has reached a depth of 735 feet and has run and cemented the surface casing at this depth. Preparations are currently underway to commence the next hole section.
> 
> The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and gave positive indications while drilling in the Kowalik -1H well. *The well design continues to build upon the knowledge gained from recent operations and offset data.*





there was no mention of a pilot hole this time, wonder if they are still using this methed, anyone know ?


----------



## Agentm

absolutely, it imperative..


http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/90/909/90959/items/314101/PXD_ThirdQtr08Earnings.pdf

pioneers transcript..

Pioneer Natural Resources Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

5 Nov 2008

“Speaking of Edwards, we are really speaking of South Texas. We have another slide in here that Scott alluded to. Our interests in the Eagle Ford shale and that shown on slide 14. I thought it would make sense to discuss our interest in the Eagle Ford shale, we really have never discussed this before, but in light of the Petrohawk discovery it seems to make sense. We have about 15,000 acres it turns out just north of the Petrohawk discovery, which is in La Salle County, as shown on the slide. But really, the play is a lot more extensive than that and really underlies all of our other Edwards related acreage as you go northeast from their discovery through the entire trend. And of course, we have a lot of data on the trend. We have, of course, 150 wells or so in our 310,000 acre lease position that you can see in the yellow boxes in the slide. This whole acreage of course is spread over the whole Edwards trend, which is six counties and about 150 miles long, and just a few miles wide along the Edwards reef trend. And every one of our wells of course is drilled through the Eagle Ford, because the Eagle Ford directly lies over the Edwards that we're drilling the reef play. And it is the case that as we drill through here, it is frequent that we have to actually flare gas when we are drilling through the Eagle Ford and we have logged all this information in all of our wells
It gives us a lot of encouragement that we have Eagle Ford ubiquitously spread across essentially all of our Edwards acreage. And we know that the Eagle Ford has significant unconventional gas potential across the acreage. We have been gathering the data to be able to progress that, to map it, and to quantify what we think is the potential. And what we believe is, if the Eagle Ford is present across all of our acreage, or at least 100,000 acres we control of that acreage, *and based on the sweet spot we think we have identified, it is probably about 30,000 acres that we are going to choose to drill our first initial wells. And the first of which we spud in Dewitt County in the middle part of October. It is about 100 miles north east of Petrohawk’s discovery and the objective is it begins the test the Eagle Ford on our acreage*. We have just completed coring this well and are preparing to drill a lateral section and we should be done with that well, say in the next couple of months. We will be drilling the 2,500 foot lateral and be using the typical multistage isolation packer technology. Then we will drill our second well about 5 miles away. So as we get into the latter parts of 2009 or in the middle parts of 2009, we can talk a little bit more about how these wells are performing in the early stages of evaluating what our potential is. B*ut we think looking at early economy and early evaluations that our current estimate of mean recoverable resource potential within that sweet spot is already over 500 Bcfe.* The cost of the wells in the Eagle Ford wells would be essentially similar to the Edwards wells we have drilled. They are basically the same depth and will have similar costs. And of course, by the time we get through with all of our infrastructure development, we will have the ability to tie in to some of the Edwards infrastructure we have been waiting on and putting in place for the last couple of years.
*We also believe we have Austin Chalk potential that sits immediately above the Eagle Ford shale, and it could be substantial in terms of resource potential, because we believe it to be also gas charged as it overlies the Edwards reef structure and that is frequently fractured. We have also typically got a flare gas when drilling through that Austin Chalk zone, which is typically about 300 feet in our areas. So we know we have some conventional pay within the Austin Chalk that is currently behind 5 and we are really also in the process of looking at the resource potential and seeing where there are attempts to test the Austin Chalk in ‘09. So that is just kind of a recap of a new thing we are looking at and we are pretty excited about it. It turns out that we have the acreage in place that we believe can lead to substantial growth in a new play.”

*


----------



## hashertu

Agentm.
Do you know how they have completed Kowalik 1H?
For example, any perforation?  Over what length?
Fraccing?  I assume not because there has been no mention of it.


----------



## Agentm

well was completed open hole then with a slotted liner, usually they put in a production tubing as well, whether they have packer set in the hole will determine how they can circulate or reverse the circulation and how effective they can be with a clean out.

because this is the first real chalks well for them (kennedy imho never stay in the chalks) the well was able to be completed open hole and whatever connectivity they have to the formation would be in the upper chalks on this completion. there was no fracc done on this well.

the current operation is entirely a clean out operation, where you get a few pumpers and pump kcl down there and allow it to return, as it returns the well gets gas into it again, then those gas pockets heat up and your mud and muck will churn around and fly all over the shop.. 

if there is any concern out there about well damage there has not been any swabbing on this well and i think the well hs shown big signs of cleaning up, there are lot of different reports of flaring and one report of the pit being on fire.. so i am not too worried about the kowalik at all, its proven there is oil and gas, and oil at a very high ratio, and with it fully loaded with kcl fluid the well has demonstrated it has expelled a lot of fluids and water and is definitely in the clean up mode right now. 

what TCEI is looking for is stabilised flow, they got massive mud hits after choking it down and flowing it onto the sales pipeline, so the preceedure is to clean it up.  imho the well dropped off big time from friday to monday, and if the fractures are considered to be full of mud still and not cleaned out, a further option for kowalik is to consider acid wash, which worked on kunde 3, or fracture stimulation to increase connectivity and flow rates


----------



## Lucky_Country

Doubt we will hear anything from the jvps today after such a shocking 2 days on the bourse.

Patience is required by all concerned as long as we get the results we are all after and no damage is done to the well.

Flow rates will be interesting to see after the initial release of results am hoping for a much improved rate.

A few extra days doing the right thing may reap the rewards on the results hopefully early next week.


----------



## seasprite

Lucky_Country said:


> Doubt we will hear anything from the jvps today after such a shocking 2 days on the bourse.
> 
> Patience is required by all concerned as long as we get the results we are all after and no damage is done to the well.
> 
> Flow rates will be interesting to see after the initial release of results am hoping for a much improved rate.
> 
> A few extra days doing the right thing may reap the rewards on the results hopefully early next week.




The old saying "No news is good news"
and good news is good news . So I prefer to hear one or the other , not anything in between .


----------



## Hatchy

Alright, so what's the go?
We sit and wait, all the while the price drops back off. 
Doesn't seem to make sense, if anything we'll get marginal results, but we'll still have a great asset and not insignificant flow. 

If they then do a frac, we might get better results if they can keep the chalks open and pumping out the condensate. 

Let's see something positive!


----------



## Sunburnt Land

As each day passes I get more convinced that this well is a dead duck 

This company really needs to take a hard lesson in how to manage their annoucements to the market


----------



## gdaf

big question is - have they improved the flow?????????

would they have reported if they did? - probably yes, so I guess we just have to wait to see if:

- the well is flowing at the same rate, or has it dropped off?
- the well is flowing at a better rate (if substantially better, would they have anounced?)
- Has Weston hit anything yet???? (is it nearing the zone/in the zone?)
- Are there any plans to frac Kowalik or Kennedy in the near future?

Wish I knew!


----------



## seasprite

I see SG Growth Equities Limited have mysteriously vanished off the top 20 list, that probably happened on the 2nd & 3rd of November. At least the price was pushed up when that happened instead of being dumped. 
  Any news on cleanup Agentm , the kids in the backseat are getting restless.


----------



## estseon

11 November 2008 

Empyrean Energy PLC  

("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME)) 

Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block A,  Texas USA 

TCEI JV Block A-5 well reaches TD 

Electric logs interpret upper, middle and lower pay-zones over 220 feet gross interval   

Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the USA provides the following update on operations on Block A which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field: 

TCEI JV Block A-5 Well  

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") that the TCEI JV Block A-5 well has reached total depth of approximately 12,470 feet. Electric logs and casing have been run. The logs indicate that the well intersected the upper, middle and lower potential pay-zones of the Austin Chalk and possibly the Eagleford Shale. 

The operator is presently assessing the well data before deciding upon a completion and testing plan. 

Empyrean has a working interest of 7.5% in this well. 

Further updates will be provided following developments. 
==========================================================

This report has been a long time coming. We have mention of the shale but they do not seem to be prepared to commit to that. They are still referring to 3 pay zones. It seems to be a case of 'watch this space' but they clearly haven't finished with the well yet.


----------



## maverick11

Tomorrows's release wil be crucial to both the future short term sp and perception of management IMHO.  I am expecting they will announce slightly improved flow and either of 2 things... they are going to flow it to sales or they are going to do a light acid wash or frac to improve flow rates.  It is proven this works and if it was my well, this is what i'd be doing.  If they don't schedule a PROMPT light acid wash or frac I will be mighty disappointed and I think we will see a sellout and a lot of investors wanting an explanation, which we are well overdue for.

Looking forward to hopefully some more concrete answers rather than vague reports from ADI management tomorrow.  I really hope the flow rates are much improved or scheduled to be improved.  Wait and see


----------



## seasprite

you can't really blame ADI , although this is frustrating for all holders . EME jumped the gun too early and let the cat out rather than have a simultaneous release as with what ADI,AUT & EKA do. 

People have got excited too early because of this , which has then prematurely pumped the share price up , only to have it fall back to where it started. AWE(ARQ) would know exactly what ADI have , 
and I think once cleaned up , she will be a hummer and the jv's must of known this when they drilled the pilot hole . There obviously needs to be more coordination with press releases so this doesn't turn to s??t again.


----------



## Agentm

estseon.

"Electric logs and casing have been run. *The logs indicate that the well intersected the upper, middle and lower potential pay-zones of the Austin Chalk and possibly the Eagleford Shale*.

The operator is presently assessing the well data before deciding upon a completion and testing plan. "

the announcement of the well not being completed, a fact made very obvious by the lack of permits on marlene olsen for a horizontal, has struck eme hard.

it leaves them with Kunde 3 horizonrtal producing, the extremely expensive baker 1,  and baker 2 horizontals  not on production, and now two verticals drilled into the lower regions, kunde 2 and marlene olsen, without any short term prospect of those wells having any laterals drilled. 

all conoco rigs have left  the live oak fields a long long time ago, i have been eaiting for over 3 weeks for the news on marlene olsen, that rig is drilling away in dewitt county on the verticals there. 

for the life of me i cannot see how eme can sustain such cash drag on that many expensive completions with no return. but the upside for eme is the prospect of baker 1 and 2 being cleaned up and put on production in december 2008.  imho eme will have to reconsider its deal with TCEI.

even with the report on marlene olsen not being taken very well, i believe the marlene olsen was primarily interested in the lower regions and the eagleford

*"Electric logs interpret upper, middle and lower pay-zones over 220 feet gross interval"*

i think that news is familiar, and i look forward to further announcements on what the jvp may think about the eagleford.. which i have always  maintained is what kennedy is producing from. and thats all imho

regions and formations change, some regions can be more chalk than shale and others can be the opposite. nothing is uniform.. and the region has very little data to work off, there are the sturken wells and the mobil well, thats it!

the dynamics of the region is very interesting , kowalik is chasing a trend similar to the kunde wells, and weston is definitely following the baker trend..

i have the impression a lot of news will surface today from the jvp, particularily on kowalik and i am hopeful there will be some indications on the future plans for the region can be indicated in some way.. but early days still..

the kowalik well is showing TCEI the play in the upper regions is active, and until i hear the full analysis about kowalik i am not that concerned at all, i have my own views on kowalik, and see the well as very promising for the future of the acreages, although initial flow results which have been posted already, indicate the well will be completed with results at the lower end of expectations..

with the expectations of vastly improved flowrates for kowalik, i am not convinced that will happen, a clean up will not give you many multiples of the initial flow rate.. i am hearing that further stimulation on kowalik is being discussed by tcei ti the partners, the two stand out candidates would be acid wash to clean up well and clear out blockages in the natural fractures, or a mini fracture stimulation of a section of the well, or the well done entirely..

others see the inital kowalik flow rates as a disaster, but keep in mind the wirelines report has not been released nor any indications on how much of the well may be connected to formation or rock that will flow. once that is released perhaps a different view on the well would be had.. who knows..

for me nothing has changed, i never doubted the sugarkane play was in our acreages, and i remain invested for the duration of what i think will be a development program involving many rigs in 2009. i looked at the presentation AUT did in new york and i think they are as keen to go forward as before.


----------



## seasprite

I wonder what the jv's intentions are. Are they going to re visit drilling the final section of the pilot hole in Kowalik to increase surface exposure to the fractures or are they just going to stimulate the last 1500ft . Fairly vague comment open to interpretation.


----------



## blues

I think the lack of information being provided by the JVP's is becoming concerning. The flow rates arent great. It would be interesting to see a business plan for the jvps and how they are going to pay for the multiple rigs they are talking about for 2009.


----------



## maverick11

I'm bitterly disappointed.  Once again, nothing concrete about their announcment today and still plenty of information not divulged.  Now they are promising the next well will be the winner - where does it end?

It concerns me very much that there are no definite plans to acid wash or frac the well anytime soon and TCEI seem to have total control over us and the future of this well... then presumably the plan would be to farm out or sell to them down the track.  Not good and it would seem our JVP have no control.


----------



## Agentm

We agree with the Operator’s interpretation that whilst approximately 4,600 feet of horizontal section was drilled in this well, it was approximately the last 1,500 feet that was drilled at a specific horizon within the upper chalk which should be pursued in subsequent wells drilled in this area of the field. This particular horizon demonstrated the gas flows and flares during drilling which are an indicator of higher permeability, usually through natural fracturing. Accordingly completion operations have focused on that 1,500 foot section

i think it says it all.

they know where the active chalks are now and how to locate them..

imho kennedy found nothing and ended in the eagleford. 

imho kowalik went through different zones and identified and picked up the productive zone later in the well, unfortunately they broke the drill string and had no chance of finishing it off another 2000 feet. 

makes weston a real clincher for all the jvp partners.. 

talk about expensive learning curves..

this will shake the less risk prone out ..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Hatchy

I'm starting to worry that this share is going to do my dough. 

1. Is management bonkers? 
2. Why the heck aren't they fraccing this one? 
3. Will they learn, or are they just going to drill and hope? 
4. Can I use all of these emoticons in one post - apparently not, there's a 5 image limit. 

Well the current share price has shat itself. I remember a line from Casino Royale - "I'm Bleeding Chips"


----------



## estseon

Why the heck aren't they fraccing this one? 
============================================================

quattro on ADFVN has suggested that there's still a lot of KCL solution and mud to clear out. I don't know the volume of the full well but 500 barrels might have been put down there. It's not going to queue up to get out in an orderly fashion either. It's hotter than the boiling point of water at atmospheric pressure down there. So, there could be a lot of back pressure from the remaining fluids. But, maybe they pumped them out. Don't know.

JVPs need to conserve cash for drilling, imo. They can fracc later when they have had some good flows elsewhere. Did they not say that each fracc of Kennedy cost about $1m? Leave it, let it clear up, move on, find the horizon - 6,000ft of it. Maybe 1,000bpd if they do. Maybe more? From initial flows and latest flows the oil/gas ratio is favourable compared to Baker on Block A.


----------



## gdaf

anybody care to do a cost analysis for 2009? Can they continue without dilution or trying to borrow funds? The Weston well appears to be paid for. They want to drill 2 more after that. Add to that some fraccing on the existing wells - we really need a nice hit or we'll be out of cash soon. What's the combined revenue from Kennedy and Kowalik on current flow rates?


----------



## resourceboom

estseon said:


> Why the heck aren't they fraccing this one?
> ============================================================
> JVPs need to conserve cash for drilling, imo. They can fracc later when they have had some good flows elsewhere. Did they not say that each fracc of Kennedy cost about $1m? Leave it, let it clear up, move on, find the horizon - 6,000ft of it. Maybe 1,000bpd if they do. Maybe more? From initial flows and latest flows the oil/gas ratio is favourable compared to Baker on Block A.




In my opinion they MUST frac now, fraccing is a lot cheaper then drilling, and the cost benefit, even if it *only* gets to 1000bpd is well worth it. Then the income can help pay off the drilling.


----------



## Hatchy

gdaf said:


> anybody care to do a cost analysis for 2009? Can they continue without dilution or trying to borrow funds? The Weston well appears to be paid for. They want to drill 2 more after that. Add to that some fraccing on the existing wells - we really need a nice hit or we'll be out of cash soon. What's the combined revenue from Kennedy and Kowalik on current flow rates?




I spoke with Chris a few months ago when they raised up some cash and he said they had enough money for the next 2 wells - so that leads me to believe that they're in a bit of trouble if weston isn't spewing out oil and gas sales.


----------



## seasprite

I'm still trying to decipher the latest drilling report. I have re read all the reports from start to now , and it is still not clear to me if they are talking about the 1,500 ft lateral pilot hole (ie 4600ft to 6000ft) or from around the 14,000 ft measured to 16325 ft measured mark.

at 13,835 ft measured (1000 to 1300 units , 17/9/08)
at 15,239 ft measured (2000 units , 50ft flares , 1/10/08)
at 16,178 ft measured (excess of 2000 units , 8/10/08)
at 16,325 ft measured or 4600ft lateral (2000 units , 15/10/08) 

are we talking about the 1,500 ft inside these measured ranges or not. 

The comparison to dual 6000 ft laterals only seems to be an indication of how Kowalik is with respect to drilling a shorter lateral and single one at that . What is it ?????


----------



## gdaf

If cash became an issue, we'd know about it pretty soon IMO. I wonder if AWE would look at tipping into the Sugarloaf? They have an indirect 32% interest in the project now through ARC and have net cash reserves of $283 million at the
end of the quarter following the merger.


----------



## tomcat

seasprite said:


> I'm still trying to decipher the latest drilling report. I have re read all the reports from start to now , and it is still not clear to me if they are talking about the 1,500 ft lateral pilot hole (ie 4600ft to 6000ft) or from around the 14,000 ft measured to 16325 ft measured mark.
> 
> at 13,835 ft measured (1000 to 1300 units , 17/9/08)
> at 15,239 ft measured (2000 units , 50ft flares , 1/10/08)
> at 16,178 ft measured (excess of 2000 units , 8/10/08)
> at 16,325 ft measured or 4600ft lateral (2000 units , 15/10/08)
> 
> are we talking about the 1,500 ft inside these measured ranges or not.
> 
> The comparison to dual 6000 ft laterals only seems to be an indication of how Kowalik is with respect to drilling a shorter lateral and single one at that . What is it ?????




Hi Seasprite,

I believe they are saying that the 1500ft is the very last section of the Horizontal (Lateral) section of the well.If you have a look at the release they state the following:

_We agree with the Operator’s interpretation that whilst approximately 4,600 feet of horizontal section was drilled in this well, *it was approximately the last 1,500 feet that was drilled at a specific horizon within the upper chalk which should be pursued in subsequent wells* drilled in this area of the field. This particular horizon demonstrated the gas flows and flares during drilling which are an indicator of higher permeability, usually through natural fracturing. Accordingly completion operations have focused on that 1,500 foot section. _ 

So they found a horizon where they essentially hit the 'Sweet spot' This can also be seen from their weekly updates as below:


_measured depth 15239_ (Which was about 400 ft into the last 1500ft drilled)

_Since the last report the well has continued to produce gas intermittently while drilling, with larger flares observed following periods of shut in when tripping to change components of the drilling assembly. The surface gas readings have averaged 2,000 units during this section.More significant gas flares including a 50 foot flare were observed while drilling the horizontal section prior to pulling out of hole._

Here we have our first indication that the readings hit over 2000 units and they encountered more significant gas flares (the first 50 foot flare was seen)

AUT also point out:

_We consider it worth comparing the current production at Kowalik #1H to our analysis of recent wells drilled in analogue Austin Chalk formation in Polk and Tyler Counties in East Texas. There development operations are advanced and upwards of 100 development wells have been drilled, the majority now being dual 6,000’ lateral sections (i.e. up to 12,000’ of exposure to an established and well known reservoir). In relative terms applying a comparative rate per 1,000’ of horizontal section, we consider that the Kowalik #1H initial production represents a mid-level producer and is consistent with and within the range of productivity levels to be expected. _ 

My take on this statement is that if they can drill a 6000ft lateral in the same horizon as the last 1500ft of Kowalik then they will have a decent producing well. 

High risk / High reward, patience is hard to come by in this market and I have been in this stock for a loooong time. So very biased towards a successful outcome, but I have always been happy with the big picture and Kowalik has shown that this play extends through our acreage which is what ADI was getting at:

_
The present production rate of approximately 2.8 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day is significant to the extent that it expands the area of gas and condensate productivity. Kowalik -1H is located approximately 5 km from our producing Kennedy - 1H well and 9 km from announced recent production in adjacent acreage.  _

So we have a lot of acreage of a play that extends between Kowalik and the Kunde / Baker wells...they just need to get into the right horizon and drill away...easier said than done it would seem, but I remain in for a while yet.

With AWE as a major shareholder of ADI they will have available all the technical info ADI is receiving. Doubt they will let their investment in ADI fall by the wayside if they think this play is the real deal...time will tell


----------



## seasprite

Thanks for that tomcat, you could have read that report in one of two ways , that's why I decided to go back and re read the whole lot , I suppose a good indication of AWE's commitment would be the taking up of the remaining rights issue possibly . But I'm only speculating , as you do .


----------



## Hatchy

Has anyone else picked up on this and can interpret whether it's a mistake or whether we have gas production higher than initially reported, Why does it say 884,000 then talk about 2.8mil cub feet?

Quote from announcement:

_*During the 24 hour period prior to this time the well produced
approximately 884,000 cubic feet of gas, 190 barrels of oil and 30 barrels of water. The water production is considered to be predominantly fluids used in the recent cleanout operation.

The present production rate of approximately 2.8 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day is significant to the extent that it expands the area of gas and condensate productivity.*_


----------



## seasprite

hi hatchy , it's barrels of oil equivalent refer to 
http://www.eppo.go.th/ref/UNIT-OIL.html for conversion factor


----------



## seasprite

Hatchy said:


> Has anyone else picked up on this and can interpret whether it's a mistake or whether we have gas production higher than initially reported, Why does it say 884,000 then talk about 2.8mil cub feet?
> 
> Quote from announcement:
> 
> _*During the 24 hour period prior to this time the well produced
> approximately 884,000 cubic feet of gas, 190 barrels of oil and 30 barrels of water. The water production is considered to be predominantly fluids used in the recent cleanout operation.
> 
> The present production rate of approximately 2.8 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day is significant to the extent that it expands the area of gas and condensate productivity.*_




I see what you mean hatchy . Sounds like they are talking about flow rates prior to clean and then the after figure is given . Who knows . These reports are written to confuse .


----------



## estseon

resourceboom said:


> In my opinion they MUST frac now, fraccing is a lot cheaper then drilling, and the cost benefit, even if it *only* gets to 1000bpd is well worth it. Then the income can help pay off the drilling.




They have made the point that they are in a different area of the field. Weston is further south and someone has posted (cannot remember who or where) that it is more likely to be an analogue of the Baker wells (Block A). There was also mention that the zone that Kowalik was drilling into was about 40% thicker than encountered in other wells. This appears to add up to there being a different formation in the north, so they need to learn about it. Now, in my view, is not the time to spend money that they might need for wells 3 & 4 in pursuit of knowledge. If they drill, say, Gonzales after Weston, they will hopefully know now what they are targeting. However, spending money designing a fracc of the first 3,000 ft of Kowalik may not be the best way forward at this time. Besides which, they will have to wait for the well to clean up. By that time, they may be ready to kick off the lateral for Weston. Frankly, I'd rather that they keep their focus on that. But, that is a personal view.


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## maverick11

I think EKA and EME will feel a bit of financial pain soon.  AUT currently has the most cash but ADI is backed by AWE.  I have heard around the place that there is the posibility AWE will top up ADI down the track.  That would also be my persoal assumption.

I really want to see plans for an acid wash/frac at Kowalik.  I know they have left the possibility vaguely open, but I want to see something concrete for once.  Presently Kowalik and Kennedy are sub economic.  When they know the frac's work, why not go after one at Kowalik??  Hopefully they will once it cleans up, meanwhile all momentum in the sp has been lost.  It was looking to break out by the end of last week!!  Good to see someone soak them up today though..


----------



## seasprite

maverick11 said:


> Good to see someone soak them up today though..




ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) have been picking up dribbs & drabs.


1,018,123 (increase to)
1,033,693 (increase to)
1,101,193 (increase to)
1,136,761 (as at 4/11/08).


----------



## nick2fish

maverick said:


> I think EKA and EM will feel a bit of financial pain soon.  AUTO currently has the most cash but ADI is backed by AWE.  I have heard around the place that there is the possibility AWE will top up ADI down the track.  That would also be my personal assumption..




Yea mine too Marverick , Awe got plenty of cash and in need of exploration assets which ADI has plus producing assets which maybe undervalued.

A 30% shareholding already and maybe a bigger or more sustainable appetite to risk than ARQ's 

Cheers


----------



## estseon

EME's basic interest is 6% (cost sharing 7.5%). It has funded an additional 20% of costs for an additional 12%WI under a special deal with TCEI for a limited number of wells but can pull out at any time for new wells. That's the understanding, anyway. There are, perhaps, 5 more wells (after Weston) to which this special arrangement would apply (unless the deal is renewed). In view of the fact that the JVPs are looking at dozens of wells over the next few years, the weighted average participation from the current deal will wane to the point where there is a balance between major dilution through share issues at the present time to keep funding this substantial cost share and the benefit of the increased participation for a limited number of wells.

Looking at AUT's recent presentation, one gets the impression that they could drill anything up to 30 wells over the next 3 years. EME's averaged WI would be 8% instead of 6% and that assumes that all wells perform equally. The cost would be funding the equivalent of one entire well in addition to its basic share and that could be by April next year because of prepayment.

There have been many figures bandied around for well costs. Let's say GBP5m. To break even on WI/share EME taking that 3 year view, would have to issue no more than 20 million shares. To raise £5m, they would have to be issued at 25p or more. Beyond 3 years, EME's WI will converge towards 6% but the dilution from the increased number of shares will remain.

If Weston is good and the SP rebounds so that they can issue at 50p or more, the case is stronger for continuing with the special deal.

If EME ducks out and just moves forward with the basic WI, TCEI will have to find the additional cash.


----------



## Agentm

seasprite said:


> I see what you mean hatchy . Sounds like they are talking about flow rates prior to clean and then the after figure is given . Who knows . These reports are written to confuse .




its not confusing or designed to confuse, what the jvp are doing is adding both the gas and oil into one quations, they use the term "equivalent". so you have your oil and gas rates which you can either do the sums of on their own, or you have the daily gas "equivalent" rate which only needs one calculation to get your daily revenue figures off. 




some would be disappointed in the kowalik result, others very jubilant.  i know what camp i sit in.. it remains a long term investment for me, and there are some very critical months ahead for all oil explorers.. i view this in the way that was summed up beautifully on another forum by a guy i know, as far as the oil industry goes, is very knowledgeable in it.  his little addition and a view into his thoughts struck home to me, as its really how this play has to be viewed, its a big picture view, and as someone said to me today, a lot of "ifs" are involved, but thats the nature of high risk high reward investing..  lets see what you think..

sandlion wrote this.

_Ladies and Gents....

Expectation is the death of most explorers...it's not a management issue at all, it's not like they are sitting in the weekly planning meeting throwing darts at a map. It's obvious that this is a long play, and to be fair the results are improving each hit. We all want the fast buck, but in a huge new tenement you have too proceed by elimination with the information on hand. Chalks are NOT standard anticline formations, the factors involved are many and diverse and only a continued program of narrowing the circle will yield the true results.

You should see how many cruddy wells are drilled for CSG which are low yield but not deemed failure. Information is power.

I hold and will continue to do so, it's not a stock for the quick buck is all but neither is it a 'stick a hole in the ground' operation like GDN or EGO. It's a professional JV with boxes to tick.

Regardless, heres hoping for good results for all...I see my guesstimates flows weren't too shabby after all  _


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## seasprite

I put the figures into the rigzone and santos conversion calculator yesterday and they didn't match , you might have to enlighten us on how they come up with the total figure . 

I'm in for the long haul as well and are movin on to Weston 1H . The important thing to me was flow rates are commercial and cash for the jv's is generated in the interim until they re visit Kowalik .


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## blues

I have spoken to 2 of the jvp's in the last day and they both are saying pretty similar things. They both said that the flow rates at Kowalik are disappointing at this stage based on the size and no. of flares they had while drilling and it will take time to work out what they can do to improve it. They also said they are now very confident the whole area is gas saturated and it is just trying to work out how to get it out of the ground commercially. Both jvps talked about being on a massive learning curve but are more confident than ever but said it will just take time. How much time and money is the question!

Cheers.


----------



## Hatchy

What I fail to understand is that we have a falling, if not tanking share price and yet what remains is that we have a field that has been shown to produce. 

This market doesn't make sense. 

Would all those selling out please leave and not come back.


----------



## Lucky_Country

I think the fact that the share price is not tanking is testament to the fact alot are confident they have got something down there.

The next 3 well will define the resource and increase productivity.

2009 should be a stella year with more than 1 rig drilling in a fiels that they have learnt so much about.Throw in Yemen and developments surrounding Indonesia harry hindsight may be appearing in 12 months time !

Every investment has its risk but I feel they are diminishing on the Texas acerage


----------



## fflintoff

*Oil Barrel 13 Nov - Empyrean Brings Out News Of Two New Wells On Its Flagship Sugarlo*

Empyrean Brings Out News Of Two New Wells On Its Flagship Sugarloaf Project In Texas 


It is becoming a little tricky keeping track of Empyrean Energy which is listed on London’s AIM and has assets in the US and Germany. We reported a month ago about two wells on its flagship Sugarloaf project in Texas which has two blocks - A and B - and is also referred to as the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field. Now we have news of two new wells. 

Empyrean is one of a group of companies which grew rapidly in the early 2000s that sought their fortune in the US by revisiting lots of small and medium sized discoveries of hydrocarbons made by large companies which were never exploited because of low prices when the finds were made. The high oil and gas prices prevailing until recently changed that. 

Empyrean started out with the Margarita project on the Texas Gulf Coast. The company drilled six shallow wells, was successful with three of them and achieved cash flow from modest production. It then decided, while keeping Margarita alive, to go for bigger targets with the Sugarloaf project. It established a position of a working interest of 7.5 per cent in Block A and interests ranging from 6 to 18 per cent in Block B. 

This acreage has always been considered highly prospective but the reservoirs can be difficult, particularly the Cretaceous Austin Chalk. The oil and gas can be “tight”. It is held in crevices and fractures, and requires new techniques like horizontal drilling, underbalanced drilling and fracture stimulation to fully exploit it. 

Last April the company’s shares surged 90 per cent on news that a well on the Sugarloaf tested commercial quantities of gas and condensate. (The shares have drifted up and down since.) At the time, this was the first of a number of discoveries to test the project area with the TCEI JV Block A-3 well flowing at 1.9 million cubic feet of gas a day and over 460 barrels of condensate per day equivalent to 6.5 million cubic feet equivalent a day. (The company subsequently talked of even better flow rates.) The well was open hole tested in the upper part of the Cretaceous Austin Chalk Formation. Okay, Empyrean only has 7.5 per cent of this but considering that its take from the Margarita wells was of the order of 120,000 cubic feet a day it represented a major step up and was obviously worth pursuing. 

Last month we commented on news of the Kennedy #1 well on Block B and the Kowalik #2 well on Block A. Here it gets a bit confusing because there was at the time a Kowalik #1H extant on Block A. We have to start thinking of zones here. 

Empyrean said the operator Texas Crude Energy (TCEI) had advised that commercial production commenced on the Kennedy #1H well at initial rates of 0.2 million cubic feet of gas per day and 60 barrels of condensate on October 2. This initial Kennedy production came from a fracture stimulated zone of approximately 600 feet in the bottom of the 4,000 feet horizontal section of the well drilled through a lower stratigraphic level to that being drilled at Kowalik #1H. This represented the first production from this level within the Sugarloaf field. 

Commenting on the Kennedy news Empyrean director Tom Kelly said: “This first commercial production from Kennedy in the middle pay zone is very exciting as it confirms the middle pay zone as being commercially productive. The middle zone has the potential to hold greater reserves than the upper zone. We think there is also vast room for improvement in flow rates from this zone.” The company also said around the same time that TCEI also reported that on October 8 the Kowalik #2H well on Block A of Sugarkane had reached a measured depth of 16,178 feet which equates to approximately 4,350 feet of measured gas readings in excess of 2,000 units. 

Are you still with me? Good. The latest release from Empyrean now gives us new information on the Kowalik #1 on Block B. This well flowed gas and condensate sales to line during test. TCEI advised that at 6am on November 3, the Kowalik 1H well flowed un-stimulated sales to test. During the 24 hour period from 6am the well produced 937,000 cubic feet of gas, 321 barrels of oil and 14 barrels of water. The water production is considered to be predominantly drilling ad completion fluids. The operator is now planning to inject the well with mud-cleanout treatment to enhance the flow and further clean the formation. Empyrean has a working interest of 18 per cent in this well. 
Meanwhile, back on Block A Empyrean has been advised that the TCEI JV Block A-5 well, a new well, has reached total depth of approximately 12,470 feet. Electric logs and casing have been run. The logs indicate the well intersected the upper, middle and lower pay zones of the Austin Chalk and possibly the Eagleford Shale across a 220 feet gross interval. 

What all this goes to say is that Empyrean is building quite a stream of gas and liquids output which should begin to translate into cash flow. It is a little soon to be precise about the level of cash flow, but some back of the envelop calculations go like this. 
The Sugarloaf is a 44 well development. On the data available so far, the broker Blue Oar reckons the recoverable amount of hydrocarbons net to Empyrean is 32 billion cfe. 

Assume a ten year life of the field (this may not be correct) and divide by the number of days in the year and you get output in the region of 8 million cfe/d. These are crude figures but add in some more guesstimates and assume a price of US$10 per 1000 cubic feet for the gas ( again this might be dubious), then the cash flow begins to look very appealing for a small company; something like US$ 80,000 a day or over US$2.4 million a month. But these are gross figures, very rough estimates and with this kind of acreage you are very much in the “many a slip between cup and lip territory”.


----------



## Agentm

Sugarloaf Update Block A (Empyrean Energy) 

RNS Number : 0713I
Empyrean Energy PLC
13 November 2008


13 November 2008
Empyrean Energy PLC 
"Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block A,  Texas USA  *KUNDE 3*


    *     TCEI JV Block A-1 kunde 3 well production facility and optimization complete
    *     Well is currently flowing gas and condensate to sales  



Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the USA provides the following update on operations on Block A which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field:

    TCEI JV Block A-1 Well (Kunde 3)


Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") that the TCEI JV Block A-1 well (kunde 3) is flowing to sales after having had a
production facility built and optimized.

The reported 7 day average stabilized rate was approximately 200 barrels of oil per day and 650,000 cubic feet of gas per day. This is approximately equivalent to 2.6 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day.

The well is flowing from a 900 feet interval that had an acid treatment during flow testing. It is the intention of the operator to fracture stimulate this 900 feet of perforations and then add a further 1800 feet to the completion interval for a total of 2700 feet. The additional 1800 feet will also be fracture stimulated if the initial stimulation is successful.

It is expected that the fracture stimulation operations will commence in December 2008 and that the well will continue flowing to sales until then.

Commenting today, Executive Director Tom Kelly said "This first Block A well flowing to sales is a significant step for the company and paves the way for the A-3 and A-4 wells to be connected to sales now that the operator has
finalized optimization of the production facility at the A-1 well. This early work will save time and allow future wells to have production facilities ordered in advance of completion to ultimately allow wells to be brought on to production as soon as possible after drilling."


So this is how i read it

Kunde 3 has 900 feet of the well in the zone thus far.

The have done an acid treatment and is flowing off the perforations.

In DEC 2008 the operator will be fracture stimulated over 900 feet of the well, and then drill the well a further 1800 feet.

if the 1800 feet is good they will fracture stimulate that also..

current flow rates of the well off the perferated section with acid treatment:

The reported 7 day average stabilized rate was approximately 200 barrels of oil per day and 650,000 cubic feet of gas per day. This is approximately equivalent to 2.6 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day.


Kowalik flow rates of 1500 feet of well unstumilated and open hole with no fracture stimulation as yet..


at 6am on 11 November 2008, the Kowalik-1H well was flowing un-stimulated to sales on test. During the 24 hour period to 6am the well produced 884,000 cubic feet of gas, 190 barrels of oil and 30 barrels of water.

The water production is considered to be predominantly fluids used in the
recent cleanout operation. This combined rate is approximately equivalent to
2.8 million cubic feet equivalent gas per day.


conocophillips well olsen baker has 2 permits in for the horizontal completion of that well


----------



## seasprite

Seismic survey over south bengara II block


----------



## Agentm

14 November 2008

Via ASX Online

ADELPHI ACQUIRES INDONESIAN PRODUCTION SHARING CONTRACT

Adelphi Energy Limited is pleased to announce that it has acquired a majority interest in a new production sharing contract ("PSC") in Indonesia.

Pursuant to a joint bid agreement ("JBA") with Continental Energy Corporation and GeoPetro Resources Company, the group's joint venture company, ACG (South Bengara-II) Pte. Ltd. ("ACG"), signed a new PSC for the South Bengara-II block. Adelphi owns a 50.002% interest in ACG and its new PSC.

The South Bengara-II PSC was one of several new PSC's signed by the Minister of Mines and Energy at a ceremony in Jakarta yesterday. The award is a result of ACG's winning
bid submitted in the August 2008 international bid round held by the Indonesian ministry of oil and gas.

ACG, in accordance with the terms of its bid and the PSC, is obliged to pay a signing bonus of US$1 million and complete a work program during the first three PSC contract
years which includes conducting geological and geophysical field surveys and studies, acquiring at least 100 line kilometres of 2D seismic,and drilling one exploration well for a total minimum expenditure of US$7,850,000.

In accordance with the provisions of the JBA, Adelphi will be free carried through the first US$4 million of gross expenditure on this block including the initial $1 million signing bonus.

This is expected to cover the first two years of the PSC term.The South Bengara-II Block encompasses an area of 5,257 square kilometres and lies onshore on the northeast coast of the island of Borneo in the Indonesian province of East Kalimantan. The block contains an existing gas accumulation, several oil and gas seeps,and large prospects and leads. It also lies adjacent to and immediately south of the Bengara-II Block which is partly owned by Continental and GeoPetro and in which a drilling program revealed encouraging results last year.

Continental will have management rights over ACG’s operations during the initial exploration phase of the PSC given the synergies with its existing Indonesian interests and its fully staffed Jakarta office with experienced technical and commercial personnel.

Commenting on the award, Chris Hodge, Adelphi’s Managing Director said that “we are delighted to have signed this PSC with the Government of the Republic of Indonesia and we look forward to working closely with our new partners to immediately commence exploration work on this prospective acreage.

Importantly, Adelphi has no cost exposure towards this PSC for the initial years and has retained a significant equity interest which provides us with options to fund future drilling expenditures.”


----------



## maverick11

*From Petroleum News today..*

*Aussie oilies in the red*

WITH oil prices hitting their lowest in 22 months and investor confidence at similar lows,
it comes as no surprise that the majority of Australian oilies are wallowing in the red.

Despite a stellar result from the Kowalik-1H well onshore Texas, the Australian partners in
the Sugarloaf joint venture were all victims of the general market malaise.

Kowalik-1H is flowing about 2.5 million cubic feet of gas equivalent with the operator,
Texas Crude Energy, planning to produce the well for some time while considering further
operations to test the potential for increasing production.

The JV also plans to establish production in upper Austin Chalk before pursuing the
potential in the deeper zones.

The Australian partners in the Sugarloaf JV are Aurora Oil & Gas (20%), Adelphi Energy (20%)
and Eureka Energy (12.5%).

AUT closed at 25c on Thursday, down 5.7% for the week and 13.8% for the month, ADI
closed at 22c, down 20% for the week and the month, while EKA was down 43.8% for
the week and 30.8% for the month to 9c.

Red Fork Energy managed to break even on the exchange with the announcement of a
gas discovery at its West 2-2 well intersecting the target Woodford Shale zone in East
Oklahoma.

The well has been cased and cemented and is awaiting an initial production test of the
shale, and has strong gas shows according to sample analysis and log information.

Red Fork now has four production wells drilled, cased, cemented and awaiting
production tests at its 100%-owned East Oklahoma project and will start testing soon.

RFE closed at 25c on Thursday, unchanged for the week though still down 13.8% for the
month.

Oddly, Pryme Oil & Gas, which plugged and abandoned the Indigo Minerals 27-1 well at
its Turner Bayou 3D project as a dry hole, was also unchanged for the week.
PYM closed at 10c, down 9.1% for the month.


----------



## seasprite

I would be very interested to see how they attack Weston 1H , now that the jvs have had a big learning curve . I can only picture in my mind how Kowalik was drilled and from that I imagine Weston may not go as deep , possibly 10,500 ft mark vertically and the inclination will not be as steep as 60 degrees and reduced to maybe 30-40 degrees to hit the transition point (sweet spot) . I know it's all guess work but it kills time and gets the old brain in action. Any other ideas out there besides "we will just have to wait and see".


----------



## Agentm

weston is the second well to be drilled byTCEi in the same fashion.

kennedy had no pilot hole, so they went in  and missed the formation by quite some distance.. the decision to guess where the formation was based on sugarloaf near by was a disaster imho, and you notice the jvp is not adopting that approach in the current wells.  maybe one day they can get so good at drilling they dont need the vertical pilot hole any more, but i doubt if any change will happen whilst they drill for the coming few years.

Kowalik had a pilot hole, which was wirelined, and then the jvp decided on which formation is the target. and then sidetrack the well and commenced a lateral.

Weston will adopt the same process, it will drill a pilot hole, wireline it, and then drill a lateral and target a specific region and try to keep the lateral in that zone.  

imho all three wells are drilling different targets..   kowalik would have followed the kunde 1 wells trend, and weston imho will be chasing the baker play..  and imho the kennedy well is not in the chalks at all..


----------



## Hatchy

Ok, 
Hands up who's worried where the share price is headed?

I'm included in that pack. 

I went for all I could plus more in the issue, now i've seen near on a 50% decline since that, and lacklustre drilling. 

I thought the JV would have more brains behind what they're doing. They make a stupid mistake of going too deep on kennedy - they drill apparently correctly with loads of flares in Kowalik and yet get nothing, and now we're faced with them targeting yet another area of chalk. It's not as if they're learning off Kowalik either - agentm correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't it a different chalk structure being targeted with Weston?

So the only lesson the JV has learnt is that we need a pilot hole - but what about what really matters in getting the barrels out of the ground? 

It took years to get CSG out of the ground in a profitable way here in QLD, we could be in for the same with these Chalks over in Texas I think - and that's at a time when Cash is King and money is getting tighter day by day, not when people could throw money into a project and not care too much like 3 years ago. 

It's not as if they should need to learn to drill a pilot hole. Are they pro's. Surely they should be focussing on getting the brain squad in to work out a way to effectively get what's down there out. 

Hold on tight boys, you're gonna get scared with this ride!


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> Ok,
> Hands up who's worried where the share price is headed?
> 
> I'm included in that pack.
> 
> I went for all I could plus more in the issue, now i've seen near on a 50% decline since that, and lacklustre drilling.
> 
> I thought the JV would have more brains behind what they're doing. They make a stupid mistake of going too deep on kennedy - they drill apparently correctly with loads of flares in Kowalik and yet get nothing, and now we're faced with them targeting yet another area of chalk. It's not as if they're learning off Kowalik either - agentm correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't it a different chalk structure being targeted with Weston?
> 
> So the only lesson the JV has learnt is that we need a pilot hole - but what about what really matters in getting the barrels out of the ground?
> 
> It took years to get CSG out of the ground in a profitable way here in QLD, we could be in for the same with these Chalks over in Texas I think - and that's at a time when Cash is King and money is getting tighter day by day, not when people could throw money into a project like 3 years ago.
> 
> Hold on tight boys, you're gonna get scared with this ride!





its all matter of perspective imho.. 

i think kennedy is fine myself, and i agree with the jvp to frac it thoroughly in the future..

easy to have hindsight and be critical of operators, but with oil wells, you have to accept things go wrong, weston can have any of a number of things go  wrong and you can lose the well..

kowalik has about 1500 feet of connectivity with a frac operation or acid job in the future.  again its fine, it shows me two zones are definately active and have hydrocarbons..

now weston imho is chasing the baker play, and i am not convinced kowalik and baker are the same plays myself, and its only my own theory hatchy, its not been announced that way at all from what i see.

the drilling goes where the drilling goes, things happen all the time, COP have sidetracked kunde 3 twice and baker 1 twice and could not complete either lateral fully..  kowalik has at least achieved a long lateral completion and found 1500 foot of formation thats producing. i am excited about it, but others are not.. kunde 3 only has 900 foot over a similar length, cost easily two to three times kowalik and if you understand where the well is, and whats been done to it, i think kunde 3 is worth every cent invested in it, and concoco have got ambitions to frac it next month, and if that works, drill out the end and complete a further 1500 feet of well..

so what you need to appreciate hatchy is its very difficult, very unsure and its not like drilling a straight line, that never happens, and  finding what your after, and staying in that formation is one hell of a skill indeed..

as the jvp say, each completion teaches them more, weston has the benefit of the other completions to utilise.

no guarantees here hatchy, just good old fashioned high risk high reward exploration.. 

imho you need to lower the expectations of exploration wells and understand how fortunate the jvp is  to have kenendy still on a future plan, despite the formation really not responding to fracture stimulation as yet, but imho its not over yet, only a very small part oft the well has been experimented on thus far. and kowlik in early days and still likely to be worked further, no P&A here on those two wells..

the jvp have proven hydrocarbons in two regions now, time to get smart and work these wells further,  1500 feet in kowalik to work with and an entire lateral in kennedy to work with..

early days,  real early days hatchy..


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> now weston imho is chasing the baker play, and i am not convinced kowalik and baker are the same plays myself, and its only my own theory hatchy, its not been announced that way at all from what i see.




Hi AgentM,
I think that it has been announced that way, I do remember reading something about it - not from ADI though, one of the other JVP partners. 

I agree that I need to lower my expectations. 

Would you agree that if they had the cash, they should have the smartest engineers in to wisper to the rocks?

Hatchy


----------



## Agentm

from what i hear about operationally, i have no doubt TCEI and the jvp is on the right track, but others may not..  and imho they are using whatever skills they can muster that have been in the chalks.. as any operator would.

this is extremely interesting geology, much is being learned each well, all you have is a tiny hole 8 inches wide miles underground.. and with that you have to try and figure it all out.

petrohawk have, meridian has, pioneer is about to and is drilling now in dewitt county, geosouthern has it figured, anadarko, TCEI, our jvp, 

did i mention conocophillisp has the cote d'or figured out, right now two rigs are drilling in dewitt, north of yorktown, and pioneer is also there at yorktown chasing the same play right this second..

this play extends right across texas, imho  BCC may have it also.. and a number of other players are drilling in the region and have been doing their own research over the past few years, 

thats what i see, one after the other saying the same thing, eagleford feeding the chalks!!!

dyor and imho


----------



## Agentm

19 November 2008
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT THE SUGARLOAF AMI

Adelphi Energy (Adelphi) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Weston -1H

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that as at 6am Texas time on 18 November the Weston -1H well was drilling ahead at a depth of 10,527 feet.

The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and is currently on production at the Kowalik -1H well.
Adelphi has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI. Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf AMI and their respective working interests are:

Aurora Oil and Gas Limited 20%
Eureka Energy Limited 12.5%


pilot hole is pretty close now..


----------



## hashertu

Agentm.  Thanks for your last response to one of my questions.  100 character minimum message precluded a short reply.
Do you think there is any significance attached to Weston pilot hole is going to 12550 feet whereas Kowalik went to 11970 feet?
Do you know if Kennedy production facility has been installed?
TIA


----------



## fflintoff

hashertu said:


> Agentm.  Thanks for your last response to one of my questions.  100 character minimum message precluded a short reply.
> Do you think there is any significance attached to Weston pilot hole is going to 12550 feet whereas Kowalik went to 11970 feet?
> *Do you know if Kennedy production facility has been installed?*
> TIA




From AUT ´s weekly reviews:-

“The Operator has installed a production facility and the well has now been tied to a nearby gas transmission line and commenced production. “


----------



## Agentm

hey hash..

production facility at kennedy is in place, as is a very good one at kowalik.

the sugarloaf well found the chalks at 11900. we know that as we all have the kslogs on sugarloaf. and the austin chalks are not 600 feet deep, they were 300 so my conclusion on weston is that it is drilling the chalks and the eagleford below it.

all imho and dyor


----------



## woltage

My concern is cash reserves. They have 4.5 mill cash with Weston paid for (I think?). Are they able to fund further exploration wells, fracs etc from 4.5 mill plus revenue from Kowalik and Kennedy if Weston fails?


----------



## gdaf

should ask AWE - they have well over 250m and own 30% of ADI.

The one hundred character limit is frustrating yes. But blah di blah di da, the stock market is moving into one of its historically cheapest times compared to earnings blahdi blah


----------



## blues

Good presentation from AUT today at their AGM. It is well worth a read for all ADI supporters.

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm

something tells me that 2009 is going to be a very busy year for some people in karnes county..

a company that prepares drill sites for oil companies has been busy setting up in karnes county, its not unusual for a company to set up a site to store equipment, but 57 acres is sure a huge site for an operator.

i know that last year all drilling in karnes county was about 58 permits put in for all operators throughout karnes county. 

this contractor is gearing up for over 200 sites that they are aware of coming up that is in their immediate scope of works..   

the conocophillips operator is active again in karnes county right now,, they only have one drill site in karnes, that the bordovsky site.  its got a workover rig on it.. after a long sleep there the well is about to have some work done to it..  i'll let you know if anything else arrives on that site soon.,, 

apparently anything east of bordovsky is being heavily worked for lease opportunities right now..

as much as it appears to be all quiet on the western front, with no rigs in live oak at all for COP, they have plenty of rigs in dewitt county drilling on trend with the sugarkane.

i picked up 3 wells that pioneer have that are in the eagleford and producing in de witt and in lavaca.. and permits for a lot of wells that will follow suit,, i picked up a very old well that was a P&A .. recently it had the plugs drilled out and is being looked over by an exploration company. that well was a vertical and did intersect all the formations everyone is hot about right now...  i noticed that pioneer like the old fred and barney and have named the cretacious/eagleford play as flintstone.. and some wells in their stingray and sawfish clusters in dewitt county are definitely in the eagleford.

looking at the logs for sugarloaf on the rrc, it announced the formation picks as austin 11982  and edward 12228..  in kennedy their completion report for the last fracture stimulation says the TVD (total vertical depth) is 12332

our  jvp says the kennedy well is in the middle zone, and kowalik in the top zone..  it say to me the top zone is chalks, and the middle is eagleford..

so whats the bottom zone then..


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Would anyone care to place a value that AWE would be prepared to pay for ADI in the event of a takeover?  

Current market cap of ADI is just over $19m (at the current $0.16 share price). Bear in mind AWE already owns about 30% of ADI.

IMO, ADI would be a nice little bolt-on acquisition for the cashed-up AWE.


----------



## Hatchy

In the current market, companies will be looking to snap up bargains. 
I'd be inclined to say it wouldn't fly for less than 35c. 

Sunburnt Land - This is the last thing we want though. Sure maybe in a years time when we've proven asset bases and are pumping out oil faster than we can cart it away. Not now though. I got stung with QGC - they'd be $20 in a few years if they weren't taken over. 

I think AWE's 30% is probably best thought of as security in troubled times, rather than a take over nudge bar.


----------



## blues

Any comments on ADI's AGM presentation? I found it quite a down beat and  disappointing presentation. Looks like the jvp has money problems and will be interesting to see how this plays out. Perhaps they will all need to farmout a percentage of their holdings to continue here. Lets hope Weston is a ripper.
Interesting comment about "farming out or selling assets to recapitalize our balance sheet".


----------



## Agentm

the presentation was far more informative than the other jvp's, it tells a good story and its also telling the holders that they are aware of the economics and are reacting to it. 

i dont agree it was downbeat, a dose of reality is not downbeat but to me is just what you need in these times, sure the potential upside is always fantastic, but you need to manage through these times and be as efficient and clever as you can be.

yemen is coming through in no time, with the results of the 3d also to be released in the near future i think.. and weston is closer to a lateral than many may believe.. 

taking a breather and fixing wells up that you have drilled is a very good road to take, after 90 days you can then reevaluate again.. farming out is not unexpected at all to me.. a few% is neither here nor there if the upside of eagleford becomes evident.. dont forget the other laterals that conocophillips have drilled are all pretty deep imho, and i think they have not forgotten to check the eagleford out in their exploration throughout colorado, dewitt, karnes and  liveoak.. and we know what the likes of petrohawk and pioneer have said, they have already got eagleford wells on the go also..  

my view is that this play 2 years ago was never talked about, all of a sudden all the operators large and small are talking about it.. the eagleford is worth remembering as being a feed to the chalks, it says to me that should the chalks be productive then theres really a good chance the
eagleford is also on your agenda..

Pioneer Natural Resources Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

5 Nov 2008

“Speaking of Edwards, we are really speaking of South Texas. We have another slide in here that Scott alluded to. Our interests in the Eagle Ford shale and that shown on slide 14. I thought it would make sense to discuss our interest in the Eagle Ford shale, we really have never discussed this before, but in light of the Petrohawk discovery it seems to make sense. We have about 15,000 acres it turns out just north of the Petrohawk discovery, which is in La Salle County, as shown on the slide. But really, the play is a lot more extensive than that and really underlies all of our other Edwards related acreage as you go northeast from their discovery through the entire trend. And of course, we have a lot of data on the trend. We have, of course, 150 wells or so in our 310,000 acre lease position that you can see in the yellow boxes in the slide. This whole acreage of course is spread over the whole Edwards trend, which is six counties and about 150 miles long, and just a few miles wide along the Edwards reef trend. And every one of our wells of course is drilled through the Eagle Ford, because the Eagle Ford directly lies over the Edwards that we're drilling the reef play. And it is the case that as we drill through here, it is frequent that we have to actually flare gas when we are drilling through the Eagle Ford and we have logged all this information in all of our wells
It gives us a lot of encouragement that we have Eagle Ford ubiquitously spread across essentially all of our Edwards acreage. And we know that the Eagle Ford has significant unconventional gas potential across the acreage. We have been gathering the data to be able to progress that, to map it, and to quantify what we think is the potential. And what we believe is, if the Eagle Ford is present across all of our acreage, or at least 100,000 acres we control of that acreage, *and based on the sweet spot we think we have identified, it is probably about 30,000 acres that we are going to choose to drill our first initial wells.* *And the first of which we spud in Dewitt County in the middle part of October. It is about 100 miles north east of Petrohawk’s discovery *and the objective is it begins the test the Eagle Ford on our acreage. We have just completed coring this well and are preparing to drill a lateral section and we should be done with that well, say in the next couple of months. We will be drilling the 2,500 foot lateral and be using the typical multistage isolation packer technology. Then we will drill our second well about 5 miles away. So as we get into the latter parts of 2009 or in the middle parts of 2009, we can talk a little bit more about how these wells are performing in the early stages of evaluating what our potential is. *But we think looking at early economy and early evaluations that our current estimate of mean recoverable resource potential within that sweet spot is already over 500 Bcfe.* The cost of the wells in the Eagle Ford wells would be essentially similar to the Edwards wells we have drilled. They are basically the same depth and will have similar costs. And of course, by the time we get through with all of our infrastructure development, we will have the ability to tie in to some of the Edwards infrastructure we have been waiting on and putting in place for the last couple of years.
*We also believe we have Austin Chalk potential that sits immediately above the Eagle Ford shale, and it could be substantial in terms of resource potential, because we believe it to be also gas charged as it overlies the Edwards reef structure and that is frequently fractured. We have also typically got a flare gas when drilling through that Austin Chalk zone, which is typically about 300 feet in our areas. So we know we have some conventional pay within the Austin Chalk that is currently behind 5 and we are really also in the process of looking at the resource potential and seeing where there are attempts to test the Austin Chalk in ‘09. So that is just kind of a recap of a new thing we are looking at and we are pretty excited about it. It turns out that we have the acreage in place that we believe can lead to substantial growth in a new play.”*


----------



## Hatchy

I think it's a very serious dose of reality. 
It makes us look not at next year, or the year after but the year after that when oil prices will be higher than now, and hopefully the aussie will be back up. 
It's a funny thing though - what cash ADI has now isn't worth all that much in USD, and that's the currency that pays for a well. It's also the currency that comes out of a well if successful. 

Right now we want the aussie to be high so that we've got lots of USD to drill holes, frac etc. Then when we've drilled we want the aussie to be low to reap the benefits therein. 

I honestly don't think we have the cash reserves to afford to frac anything. 

I think we've got a bleak future - expect low prices going forward - whatever red your ADI shares are in at the moment won't get better for some time. 

You're not alone in the pain. 

IMHO


----------



## gdaf

all of these questions are still unanswered by the report, and still remain crutial to this company's immediate future:

- Will AWE bankroll them or not?


----------



## gdaf

- will they frac the K1H and Kowalik now?
- what happens if (when?) one of the JVP partners runs out of cash, or goes into liquidation? Do the others have to up their share?

Basically, unless there's funding options that they are not letting on I think the future depends on Weston and


----------



## gdaf

sorry - this browser is acting up...

unless they have something going on with funding that they're intentially not letting on (why mention farm ins etc?) or they can secure funds from AWE, I think the future of this company depends on Weston and improved flow results from their existing wells. There's simply not enough in the kitty as it is, and not enough confidence to go forward without this.


----------



## Agentm

gdaf.. ask them.. ask awe and ask adi.. maybe you will clarity maybe you wont, but i dont look tp awe for anything myself..

whats important is what on the ground, weston.. its at the level where the logs from sugarloaf 1 showed huge spikes, 19500 is the zone..

the operator needs to be in that right zone and stay in it, lots of sampling done, which is what thye would have done in all wells, it will show them some data on where they are.. and reassure them of where to look for that play.. i certainly dont hope for 4000 feet of finding it and 2000 foot of "in the zone"   i would expect the well to be in the zone at the front end of the well this time..


Adelphi Energy (Adelphi) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Weston -1H

Adelphi has been advised by the operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that since the last  report the well was drilled to a depth of 11,659 ft where intermediate logging and sidewall cores were taken. Drilling then recommenced and the hole is currently at a depth of 11,950 ft with operations ongoing.

The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and is currently on production at the Kowalik -1H well.


----------



## gdaf

What about income from the two wells producing? What is ADI's share. No mention of this in the report?


----------



## Agentm

gdaf said:


> What about income from the two wells producing? What is ADI's share. No mention of this in the report?




again, ask adi gdaf,, 

or go to the rrc site, look up the well, look up production and then calculate it through. make yourself a spreadsheet on excel if you like and punch in the monthly numbers.. my database tell me a few months later the sale price of the gas and oil on the wells.. but as you know we all need to dyor..


----------



## barney

Agentm said:


> weston a real clincher for all the jvp partners..
> 
> talk about expensive learning curves..
> 
> this will shake the less risk prone out ..
> 
> all imho and dyor..




Spot on there Agent !!

We may well see sub 10 cents before we see 20cents+ now, but just to keep a perspective on what a bear market can do, here is a chart showing the relative volume areas that Adelphi has been most traded/invested at ........... The price could keep dropping, but the fact is, that those selling into these prices are in the minority ...... those buying, if it eventually comes good, will be better off than most ............ Like everyone else, I wish I'd waited ..... but hindsight is a "useless commodity" ............. Sit tight .... grin and bear it ...... or sell to the bargain hunters .....


----------



## speculator101

Hi all.

Dire times indeed.
Would anyone be able to guestimate how much ADI's Yemen holdings would be worth to AWE. Considering AWE is already exploring Yemen.
If you care to read AWE's AGM its mentions that it has lots of capital to finance both further exploration, development and bolt on acquisitions...  – Oh, it is also paying out a dividend of about $50 million – which could have been used to buy ADI.. So im thinking a T/O is prob not on the cards. AWE already has %30.
Anyway.

ADI doesn’t seem to have too many choices right now.. funding wise.
So here’s hoping AWE see a bright future for ADI.

IMHO.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Sell down on Yemen looks on the card but if Weston comes in as a great revenue earner all may fair well.

If they can get a substantial cash flow from Weston I expect them to go back to Kowalik and Kennedy and give them the best shot of increasing flow rates on these well for little as can be outlayed.

Kowalik seems to be being watched very closely with the jvp not letting to much information released.
All is not lost infact chances of success seem to be growing finance is the problem.

I must admit this waiting and watching the shareprice is really depressing me although I remain optomistic !


----------



## seasprite

Weston -1H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that at 6am Texas
time on 2 December 2008 the well was at a depth of 12,480 ft with the build section now
complete with an inclination of 70 degrees. The well will now be drilled down into the chalk
and the final casing string set before commencing the horizontal section.


----------



## gdaf

Lets hope next week's report includes a statement that flaring has been observed while drilling the horizontal. There is so much riding on this well now for ADI. All eyes will be on this part of the drill. We're close to the zone.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Now let's just hope they don't go and do something stupid like losing the drill string aka Kowalik.


----------



## seasprite

it appears to me an ex director Patrick O'Connor has been selling up through his interest in SG Growth Equities Limited and latest sell down by Beech Grove Pty Ltd to take both of them off the top 20 list. Unfortunately his other interest Cenotaph Nominees remain in the top 20. 

Sooner he has gone the better.


----------



## Agentm

i believe sg growth was an investment company, that had holdings in various places, if i recall you needed half a mill to tip into it. perhaps they have had stressed investors withdrawing just as anyone else has had on their share registry? imho any investment company can have geared investors and normal cashed up investors, and people withdrawing is probably not unexpected and very common, imho its not unusual for the top 20 holders to change around, whats been very unusual about adi is that by and large the top 20 have had the same familiar names for years now. and that may be true of all the aussie jvp's.

sunburnt, all i have asked for christmas is for a straight lateral, i hope santa understands my letter to him.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Not many sellers and real move will see the sp move substantially higher.

Weston 1 may be close to bringing some kind of results lets hope they are positive.

Wheres my Xmas present ADI ?


----------



## Sunburnt Land

The only Adelphi that will be putting smiles on faces this Christmas is the ham sitting on the table at lunchtime.


----------



## Agentm

Weston -1H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that on 9 December 2008 the well was at a measured depth of 13,013 ft and has been drilled into the Austin Chalk with an increase in background gas. The final casing string is now being run in the hole and once cemented, preparations will take place for the drilling of the horizontal well section.

The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and at the Kowalik - 1H well.


----------



## gdaf

The is a good anouncement IMO. It shows we're in saturated rock. The horizontal section will now be drilled, and hopefully we'll be heading straight into a fractured area. Can we get more than the 1500ft at kowalik? Let's hope so. What have they learnt from their experience there? 

The market has priced in comeplete failure in Texas, and basically writes off any chance that ADI will get anything out of their other plays, including a year free carry that may well turn out to be very productive. 10c looks pretty appealling if you've got an appetite for risk (.01% of the population in this environment?)

Better times ahead? Let's hope so.


----------



## blues

EKA doing a capital raising and it will be interesting to see if ADI are right behind them. Need a good result at Weston.


----------



## JOHAUD

EME interim results

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=29856931&epic=EME

 contain some useful info.


----------



## Agentm

HIGHLIGHTS

*     All nine wells drilled to date at the Sugarloaf Project have encountered
hydrocarbons whilst drilling and five have successfully tested gas and condensate  
*     Production commenced from three wells at the Sugarloaf Project with two already tested wells to come on to sales shortly
*     The Weston-1H well at the Sugarloaf Project has reached the target zone and is currently drilling the horizontal with elevated gas readings being observed upon entry into the target zone 
*     Appointment of Finance Director, John Laycock and new Nominated Adviser and Broker, Blue Oar Securities Plc

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

Overview

........Two more wells commenced during the reporting period in Block A. The first of these wells, TCEI JV Block A-4 well *(Baker 2)*, has a horizontal section in the upper pay zone *(Austin chalks)* , and is now in the process of being connected to sales. TCEI JV Block A-5 well *(Marlene Olsen)* commenced drilling during the period and is a vertical well targeting all three potential pay zones *(Austin chalks is upper zone)*. This well successfully reached the target depth and intersected all three potential pay zones and is due to be tested shortly. It is envisaged that the operator will test the middle pay zone and lower pay zone *(eagleford)* , before testing the already proven upper zone *(Austin Chalks)* and possibly combining production from all zones if possible and successful. The Middle and Lower Pay Zones are also called the Eagleford Shale which is an active new Play in South Texas............

OPERATIONAL REPORT

The Sugaloaf-1 well was drilled and following analysis of logs showing the presence of at least a 92 feet gross column of gas, Empyrean entered a second agreement with TCEI for an additional interest in the next 16 wells to follow Sugarloaf-1 on Block B or the adjacent Block A.

To date, a total of seven wells have been drilled with one currently drilling as part of the 16 well deal. All wells have encountered hydrocarbon shows while drilling and three have already tested positively for gas and condensate. Four of these eight wells have been spud since May 2008, being TCEI JV Block A-4*(baker 2)*, TCEI JV Block A-5*(marlene olsen)*, Kowalik-1H and Weston-1H.

The operations in progress are as follows:

BLOCK A

TCEI JV Block A-1 (Empyrean Interest: 7.5%)  *(Kunde 3)*

The TCEI JV Block A-1 *(kunde 3)* well was brought into production and commenced flowing to sales at an initial seven day average production rate of
2.6 million cubic feet equivalent gas per day (10:1 conversion on condensate value). The well was flowing from 900 feet of perforations and the operator intends to add an additional 1800 feet of perforations to provide some 2700 feet (approximate) of perforations and also fracture stimulate the additional interval. These operations have commenced.

TCEI JV Block A-2 (Empyrean Interest: 7.5%) *(kunde2)*

The TCEI JV Block A-2 well is being used to monitor the fracture stimulation operations of the A-1 well following which it will be completed for production itself.

TCEI JV Block A-3 (Empyrean Interest: 7.5%)* (baker 1)*

The TCEI JV Block A-3 well * (baker 1)* was spudded on 24 October 2007.

On 14 April 2008 Empyrean was finally able to announce the initial test results of a significant gas-condensate discovery. Initial flows through a 12/64 choke were measured at 1.9 million cubic feet gas per day with 460 barrels of condensate per day. Based on present day prices for gas and condensate this would be equivalent to 6.5 million cubic feet of gas
equivalent per day.

This open hole test has been conducted without stimulation.  

A-3 * (baker 1)* has been flow tested then "shut in" as part of the normal reservoir and production engineering procedure. During the "shut in" period the operator has been finalising the design (based on the TCEI JV Block A-1 well *(kunde 3)*) and construction of production facilities and pipeline connection. Condensate will be separated in situ and trucked to the appropriate markets. As of 4 December 2008 the connection operations are still in progress.

TCEI JV Block A-4 (Empyrean Interest: 7.5%) *(baker 2)*

TCEI JV Block A-4 well *(baker 2)* was designed to test the same "Upper" zone of the Austin Chalk as those Block A wells in production, being TCEI JV Block A-1 well and TCEI JV Block A-3 well. (Kunde 3 and Baker 1)

The well was spudded on 4 July 2008 and reached total depth of 12,756ft in the vertical pilot hole on 26 July 2008. At least 300 ft of gas shows were encountered during this phase of drilling.

The horizontal phase terminated at 15,084ft (measured depth) on 7 September 2008.  Sufficient pay had been intercepted in the Austin
Chalk reservoir and this was considered by the operator to provide sufficient potential for a good commercial outcome. *(damn short well but in the good stuff)
*
 Preparations for production testing commenced at the beginning of October 2008, and on 31 October 2008 it was announced that A-4 * (baker 2)* had flowed initial rates as high as 2.5 thousand cubic feet of gas per day and 260 barrels of condensate per day, equating to approximately 5.1 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day.

Preparations for sales pipeline connection and production facilities have already commenced. *(correct)*

TCEI JV Block A-5 (Empyrean Interest: 7.5%) *(marlene olsen)*

The well was spudded on 29 September 2008 and reached a total depth of 12,469ft on 27 October 2008.

It is a vertical well which had hydrocarbon shows in all three zones, Upper *(Austin Chalk)*, as well as the Middle and Lower Pays which are called the Eagleford Shale by on-trend operators.

The operator is at present assessing the well data before deciding on a testing and completion procedure. It is envisaged that the operator will test the Middle and Lower pay zones, (*the Eagleford Shale)*, before testing the already proven Upper Zone and possibly combining production from both zones if possible and successful.

BLOCK B

Kennedy -1H (Empyrean Interest: 18%)* (eagleford well)*

The well spudded on 17 September 2007 and after kicking off from the vertical at 11,845ft, the total depth of 16,750ft (measured depth)
was reached on 12 November 2007 was 820ft short of the original proposed measured depth of 17,570ft. 

A fraccing operation was carried out on 14 May 2008. A total of 95,000 lbs of sand and 5,182 barrels of fluid were injected under pressure into four sets of perforations over an approximate 600ft horizontal interval. Initial flow results of gas condensate and fracc fluid recovery were announced on 25 May 2008.

An impending second fraccing operation was announced on 23 June 2008 and carried out on 3 July 2008. An additional three sets of perforation intervals, each 3ft long, were interspersed between the original 600ft perforated
interval prior to the introduction of 100,000lbs of high strength proppant. The fraccing operation was terminated prematurely due to the high pumping pressures encountered and only 50% of the proppant entered the formation.

After cleanup operations, testing of the well resumed on 15 July 2008. The initial, unstabilised rates of 425 thousand cubic feet of gas per day and 106 barrels of condensate per day reduced, after intermittent slugging, to 200-300 cubic feet of gas per day and 46-107 barrels of condensate per day.

Since at least 5,000 barrels of fluid had not been recovered after the fraccing operation, a coil tubing unit was mobilised on the 18 July 2008 to displace the fluid. Some additional fluid was recovered but the flow rates
remained the same. It has been estimated by the operator TCEI that the production originated from only 17ft of perforations in the bottom section of the 600ft horizontal section.

On 31 August 2008 it was announced that Kennedy 1H was being shut- in while production and tie-in facilities were completed for eventual
connection with the nearby transmission line. Production recommenced on the 2 October 2008 at a rate of 200 thousand cubic feet of gas per
day and 60 barrels condensate per day. 

This is the first time production has originated from the "Middle" pay zone, *(eagleford)* and therefore augurs well for recoverable reserve considerations. A decision whether or not to perforate and fracture stimulate the remaining 3,000ft of horizontal section will be made following the analysis of production performance.

Kowalik-1H (Empyrean Interest: 18%) *(austin chalks well)*

Kowalik-1H was spudded on 4 July 2008 and was designed to test the "Upper" pay zone of the Austin Chalk over a 6,000ft horizontal interval. It is located 5 km north of Kennedy-1H and is on trend with the Block A producing wells TCEI JV Block A-1 well and TCEI JV Block A-3 well.

The vertical pilot hole reached a total depth of 11,970 ft on 11 August 2008. The horizontal phase was successfully completed and on 22 October 2008 it was announced that the well had reached a final measured depth 16,483ft
(equivalent to approximately 4,600ft of horizontal section). Although the original plan was to penetrate a 6,000ft horizontal section, it was
considered technically prudent to stop at this depth. There had been significant gas shows throughout the section, often reading more than
2,000 units with attendant flares on surface. 

Testing operations commenced on 3 November 2008. Initial flows measured 937 thousand cubic feet of gas per day and 321 barrels of condensate per day.  It has been interpreted that most of this production is from approximately 1800 feet of the horizontal well.        

    FJ Brophy BSc (Hons)
    Technical Director
    12th December 2008


----------



## Agentm

confirmation of the kennedy being in the eagleford

confirmation the baker 2 well is about to go on production

confirmation that kunde 3 is being fracced at the moment

interesting that they operator TCEI required the jvp to wait for all that time (practically a year), for kunde 3, which is a chalks well to be fracture stimulated, before fracture stimulating the eagleford in kennedy 1h.  now to my way of thinking isnt it fair to say the two formations would be fracture stimulated by completely different methods and processes?  

so how is this possible????  you cant tell me that TCEi did not know the frac of sugarloaf 1 was in the eagleford ?



adi presentation January 2008  

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX Release 21 January 2008 Corporate Presentation.pdf

Sugarloaf
Vertical

• *Fracture stimulated and
tested bottom chalk zone*
• Flowed max 387mcgfd +
50bbls condensate then
water
• Water is from an
underlying formation
penetrated by the
induced fractures
• No further tests planned
until after Kennedy tested

Kennedy
Horizontal

• *Drilled in upper Chalk
interval with liner
cemented in place*
• Detailed frac and test
design underway
• Timing of test as soon as
practical subject to
finalisation of frac design
and availability of
equipment
• *Valuable information to
be learned from
application of different
frac and completion
techniques in adjacent
wells*


eme release last night on kennedy 1h

On 31 August 2008 it was announced that Kennedy 1H was being shut- in while production and tie-in facilities were completed for eventual
connection with the nearby transmission line. Production recommenced on the 2 October 2008 at a rate of 200 thousand cubic feet of gas per
day and 60 barrels condensate per day.

*This is the first time production has originated from the "Middle" pay zone, (eagleford) and therefore augurs well for recoverable reserve considerations. A decision whether or not to perforate and fracture stimulate the remaining 3,000ft of horizontal section will be made following the analysis of production performance.*

the chairman of eme says this in the release

We are mindful of shareholders needing to rely upon a*ccurate information *for their Company and urge shareholders to only rely upon Company endorsed information either via announcements or reliable published research.

ok... 

so without apology the operators are now actually declaring the truth on kennedy being in the eagleford, and yet failing to elaborate on sugarloaf 1 which was not testing the austin chalks at all.

when i look at completion reports and it says 12500 feet in kennedy and i am told to believe its in the upper chalks!! do they think i am unable to read a completion report??  

the chalks are at 11900 feet in sugarloaf 1 and the kenendy well was never in it..

why they decided to ignore the chalks completely, and change strategies and go for the eagleford without even knowing how to frac that region and without telling any of the shareholders is a question very much unanswered.

as far as i am concerned, if the jvp are going to continue to change operational stategies and not inform the shareholders for 12 months, then its going to be tough to convince prospective investors into the future operations of sugarkane play (all three zones)

i participated in capital raising and put money down for operations that in hingsight had zip to do with the austin chalks. and i kinda feel duped here..

if the focus is the eagleford then make it the focus, but imho so far the only capital actually invested into the austin chalks so far in block b is one well kowalik, and all other operations in sugarloaf 1 and  kennedy have been in the eagleford whilst maintaining steadfastly the ops were in the chalks!!

we are so far being told the weston well is to test the upper chalks zone..

this is absolutely confusing, how can i be sure its the case??


----------



## speculator101

Hey Agentm and all contributors.
Cheers as always for the info.
Like you and many ADI shareholders, I was in for the capital raising...
These are prob fairly hard (wishful) questions but I doubt I will get any from ADI!
Where do you see ADI in 6 months time?
Do you foresee another capital raising?
Trading volume has continued to basically be zip.
When will actual production rates be announced, as in that ADI is actually making some cash?
Cheers.

IMHO.


----------



## estseon

"we are so far being told the weston well is to test the upper chalks zone..

this is absolutely confusing, how can i be sure its the case??"

Impossible to say from the reported well depths. They're drilling off the vertical and don't disclose vertical depth. Perhaps there will be more information from EKA in relation to their capital raising.

Have a look at the pictures on this web page:

http://courses.unt.edu/hwilliams/GEOL_1610/fieldtripsites/eagle_ford_shale.htm

How can anyone confuse chalk with shale?


----------



## maverick11

Agentm, sometimes i am unsure if our management even know what is going on!!  All along we have been fed vague and misleading info and investors have lost faith.

When the timing is right, IMHO i think the best option is bail out of texas and move on to yemen.


----------



## mick z

maverick, i have always wondered which one of the jvp's actually writes the announcements, something that makes me laugh is the fact the announcement from Texas always comes in at 6.00am .


if TEXAS CRUDE is the writer of announcements then we all have been deceived, if the jvp's are the writer then they have alot of explaining to do.

hmmmm


----------



## Agentm

12-15-2008
ConocoPhillips to Announce its Capital Spending Plans in Early 2009


HOUSTON, Dec. 15, 2008 - ConocoPhillips [NYSE:COP] today announced it will communicate its 2009 capital spending plans in January. The company continues to evaluate its capital and operating plans in light of the significant uncertainties associated with the outlook for crude oil, natural gas, and refined product prices, as well as the effects on service and other costs related to the integrated oil sector.

ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with interests around the world. For more information, go to www.conocophillips.com.


----------



## Agentm

the EKA announcement show where the next operations will happen

its focus is on kowalik..  which is very much in need of further clean up works to allow the well to perform at a far superior flow rate. 


The proceeds from the capital raisings will primarily be used to meet operating costs at the Sugarloaf project in Texas. Having pre-paid drilling costs for the Kowalik – 1H well and the current Weston – 1H well, *Eureka seeks additional working capital to contribute to the planned and possible completion operations for each of these wells.*

Kowalik - 1H has recently undergone clean-up operations and is now tied into the sales pipeline system. *Over the next few weeks this well will undergo planned completion operations to maximize the flow of hydrocarbons*.

Weston - 1H has been drilled to a measured depth of 13,013 feet and is being cased to this depth prior to continuing drilling the horizontal section in the Austin Chalk horizon for up to a further 6000 feet. *Completion operations on this well will be undertaken at the conclusion of drilling the lateral length.*

Following completion of operations at the Kowalik – 1H and Weston – 1H wells at Sugarloaf, Eureka with the Operator intend to review and consider the results together with results from other wells being drilled on adjacent acreage within the Sugakane Gas & Condensate Field ahead of undertaking further operations.

so why does weston need completion operations when the well was paid for in advance? and what are the completion ops?  i thought the well was open hole and designed to be completed in the chalks???????


----------



## Lucky_Country

Sounds like they still have work to do on Kowalik must be a good sign that they can increase flow rates.

Just been wondering about what ADI will be doing in regards to capital raising or farm out etc.

Maybe that uncertainty is holding the shareprice down in its lows.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Sounds like they still have work to do on Kowalik must be a good sign that they can increase flow rates.
> 
> Just been wondering about what ADI will be doing in regards to capital raising or farm out etc.
> 
> Maybe that uncertainty is holding the shareprice down in its lows.





last announcement they had 2 mill in the bank and potential to get 1 mill from indonesia.

i guess the speculation you bring will contribute to the negative sentiment.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm said:


> last announcement they had 2 mill in the bank and potential to get 1 mill from indonesia.
> 
> i guess the speculation you bring will contribute to the negative sentiment.




I would say Im entitled to speculate on this forum afterall an investment in ADI is pure speculation until we have proven the size of the field in ADIs acerage.

Just like your speculation on the size of the field you are purfectly entitled to do and have done on many occasion.

Not sure anyone really knows how big this field is even the company drilling it but speculation on the size is quite big even up to $2.55 per share according to management of ADI with their speculative figure.

Time will tell and as Ive stated before Im holding until some proven news on what they have in the acerage is released.


----------



## gdaf

kowalik 'extra' cleanup operations over the next few weeks. Ok - what exactly does this entail? - is EKA's funding required for this? Are we talking about fraccing/acid wash/ etc. ? Need more detail here. This could well be the kick in the a"se that we're after. Big news IMO.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country, your entitled to "speculate" as you call it, and i am entitled to comment on it, its a forum after all.

gdaf,  the most likely candidate for kowalik would be an acid job with a coiled tubing unit. imho the gas flares indicated good connectivity, and something went horribly wrong with kowalik obviously, nothing makes sense with the current flow rates. even baker 1 & 2 have similar completion lengths in the chalks (if we are to believe the announcements) and there is no reason to believe the kowalik well shouldnt perform at the similar rates those wells have thus far.

what i would love to know is why weston needs further completion work already when it has not drilled the lateral yet?? wtf is that about?


----------



## mick z

what i would love to know is why weston needs further completion work already when it has not drilled the lateral yet?? wtf is that about? 

where does it say completion work now ? agentm
your not reading it right.


----------



## Agentm

mick i dont think your following what i am asking? 

how can you predict there are to be more completion works to be done on weston? my understanding is that the wells were designed to be open hole then hook them up ontoi the sales pipeline.. a chalks well needs no further completion works after its drilled. unlike a eagleford well or an edwards well, where you put a production liner in there then bring in specialist frac crews and machinery and start a very expensive completion in that way.

what i am trying to understand is what has changed from kowalik, was it not the case that the chalks wells were to go directly onto sales when the wells have finished drilling?

EKA are specific here... 

*Completion operations on this well will be undertaken at the conclusion of drilling the lateral length.
*

sounds to me like the TCEI jvp have further completion processes in mind on weston when its finished drilling regardless..


----------



## Agentm

but looking at the share purchase plan that eka released after close of trade the wording is now "possible"

"The proceeds from the SPP will primarily be used to meet operating costs at the Sugarloaf project in Texas. Having pre-paid drilling costs for the Kowalik – 1H well and the current Weston – 1H well, Eureka seeks additional working capital to contribute to the *planned and possible* completion operations for each of these wells."


i assume planned is the kowalik and possible is weston

all imho and dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well bit disappointe at todays announcement eems like things are not going according to plan with th drilling.

It seems a long drawn out process trying to crack the Austin Chalks and get the production that they think it is capable of.

Im sure the jvp will reap the rewards but we are going have to be very patient it seems.

Well Im hoping that ADI can deliver the goods in a timely fashoin and would be disappointed if things are not sorted out in a reasonable timeframe.


----------



## prawn_86

Lucky_Country said:


> Well Im hoping that ADI can deliver the goods in a timely fashoin and would be disappointed if things are not sorted out in a reasonable timeframe.




What would you call a timely fashion?

Originally 2007 was going to be ADIs year, then 2008, now 2008 is virtually over i guess 2009 must be it... 

Serisously though, i personally think things have goit even more complicated and confusing now some forms of drilling have started. Wasn't the drilling supposed to clear things up?

As they say, if you dont understand it, dont invest in it, and i personally have no clue what is going on in ADI land


----------



## barney

prawn_86 said:


> What would you call a timely fashion?
> 
> Originally 2007 was going to be ADIs year, then 2008, now 2008 is virtually over i guess 2009 must be it...
> 
> Serisously though, i personally think things have goit even more complicated and confusing now some forms of drilling have started. Wasn't the drilling supposed to clear things up?
> 
> As they say, if you dont understand it, dont invest in it, and i personally have no clue what is going on in ADI land





Well I'm a long time holder of ADI, and I've got to agree Prawn .... I am really disappointed with the whole scenario

TCE have led us up the garden path in many ways I reckon

I firmly believe that if ADI can stay afloat, it will be a lucrative venture in the future, but I have considered the cash I have involved "written off" for  some time ............. I actually forsee leaving the shares to my children in the hope that they will benefit after I'm long gone ( I'm happy with that) 

I had a story to tell re my ADI investment, which is still valid, but maybe it wont get told on ASF ....... such is life ......


----------



## mick z

barney said:


> Well I'm a long time holder of ADI, and I've got to agree Prawn .... I am really disappointed with the whole scenario
> 
> TCE have led us up the garden path in many ways I reckon
> 
> I firmly believe that if ADI can stay afloat, it will be a lucrative venture in the future, but I have considered the cash I have involved "written off" for  some time ............. I actually forsee leaving the shares to my children in the hope that they will benefit after I'm long gone ( I'm happy with that)
> 
> I had a story to tell re my ADI investment, which is still valid, but maybe it wont get told on ASF ....... such is life ......






that's right BARNEY i remember now you were going to tell us a story when it got to $2.00.

come on mate we need a good story at the moment, lets have it.


----------



## barney

mick z said:


> that's right BARNEY i remember now you were going to tell us a story when it got to $2.00.
> 
> come on mate we need a good story at the moment, lets have it.





Seriously Mick,  You have no idea how much I would love to tell that story ...

And to be honest, I still believe the story is true .... but I'm a gullible bastard lol ..... 

But I am silenced until it hits 2 bucks + cause the story has no credibility till then 

I may well be in a box 6 feet under by that time ....  lol, but I will instruct my "decendants" to tell the story ............... 

Lets hope I get to tell it before that happens.


----------



## sam76

At least OPEC has agreed to cut output by two million barrels a day.

should have a flow on effect to oilers tomorrow.


----------



## mick z

ahhhh......so Barney no story tonight straight to bed. lol

you big meanie.

i have to type one hundred characters. hmmmm that should do it.


----------



## solomon

Well Barney that you've got a story to tell is about the best news I've heard all day. I'm hanging in for $2 just to hear the story. Is there anything that could make you yield.


----------



## barney

mick z said:


> ahhhh......so Barney no story tonight straight to bed. lol
> 
> you big meanie.
> 
> i have to type one hundred characters. hmmmm that should do it.






solomon said:


> Well Barney that you've got a story to tell is about the best news I've heard all day. I'm hanging in for $2 just to hear the story. Is there anything that could make you yield.





Haha ........... You guys have no idea how much I need to tell the story!!  But I wont relent 

Tell ya what .. I'll do  a deal ...... The story gets told at a buck 99 ($1.99) ... Can't be any fairer than that 

Seriously though, what  a dog fight this stock has tuned into .... very disappointing all round.  I remember Agent made the comment early on "why did the JVP's get asked to participate" in this potential boomer??

We now have the answer to that .... TCE needed to lower their own exposure cost wise because the whole play was speculative ........... With Ozzy minnows footing a portion of the bill, they could still do things the way they wanted without any serious repercussions ....

We aren't down and out, but lets face it, we don't get much say in what goes on .......... I quizzed Chris Hodge a while back as to whether TCE had ADI's best interest at heart ....... He said they did, but I've never been 100% convinced ..

Like I said, I have resigned myself to pass this one on to my children.  I just hope they get the benefit of the potential that we have all seen ... 

Then again we might all get lucky, ..... but I'm not looking at telling my story anytime soon to be honest  ........ unfortunately.


----------



## Agentm

the essential problem is this jvp has not the cash to burn on a greenfield play such as this.

imho the Conocophillips side of things will go on regardless, but in 2009 it may be scaled back somewhat, and for very good reason.

rig operators are stacking up rigs all over texas, so its telling me that the unconventional plays like the chalks  and the shale are not going to be drilled on economic conditions alone.

that doesnt mean this play is not without its merits, it needs two things that adi spelled out very clearly in their agm to be prevalent. whqats happening now is no shock for anyone..

adi is joining the rest of texas and going into sleep mode until a warmer and more welcoming climate is on the horizon.

you cant be critical of the operator nor adi for the "perfect storm" as its described.

my view on sugarkane (eagleford chalks and the mystery 3rd zone) remains as before, its proven to be there, but as yet the jvp has to experience success in the drill.

historically plenty of green field exploration wells performed badly or not at all until the right drilling processes were understood and developed. whereas we have production in the two wells drilled in both the eagleford and the chalks with further works scheduled.  

Weston is the best chance on the play in terms of using previous histories and understandings to get a long completion "in the zone"

would have better to have 4 wells drilling in 4 locations to prove it up, but two is all that will happen in the near term.

kowalik is due for a fuerther works, and it appears a lot of live oak wells are getting operations on them as the sites become active again.

i can assure you of one thing, its clear that in the proposed development of sugarkane that was touted by some of the jvps for 2009 are not likely to occur as the operators have clearly informed many in the region that plans have changed.

if opec do their thing and things stabilise in 2009 to allow the economics to return, we may see oil rise, drilling costs dramatically come down steeply and perhaps a favorable dollar..

remains an extremely high risk high reward play for those jvp partners with nothing else on the books, but adi is an exception with two further projects to consider in the future, yemen has two wells scheduled for mid 2009.

time for the jvp to do as announced, finish weston, fix kowalik, and then its time for adi to look at the operations in yemen also. 

i am hanging in there as it really doesnt present any choice for me nor many other investors.

absolutely predictable for the critics to line up and kick the crap out of the sentiment on the share, but they wont get much volume nor value for their effort imho.. but good on them for trying and good to see they have the same venom as before..

i am sure all investors have assessed their risk exposures and adjusted accordingly through this well publicised and heavily predicted economic slump..  

looking ahead i dont see a rosy picture for the planet myself, but lets see what the obama can magic up for the world..

hard days for all in all sectors imho..


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> looking ahead i dont see a rosy picture for the planet myself, but lets see what the obama can magic up for the world..
> 
> hard days for all in all sectors imho..



Bollocks mate.

Had a look at the gold sector lately?

Just because ADI is sitting at all time lows, despite all the 'hopeful' postings does not mean that everything else is going to poo.

But yes, make sure you all "keep the faith" you lot. I'm sure it's done you very well in this stock over the years.


----------



## Agentm

its amazing when people gloat about how things go, i have chops on ignore as his view on investing is short term and not long term.

no one here is asking anyone to keep the faith, everyone is responsible for their own investment decisions. chops just tries to make out that this is whats happening and then adds free licence to criticise..

i doubt things can change with him..


----------



## Agentm

anyone notice volumes of trades in adi??


This Year  	
2,809         	
32,337,399           	
$9,674,420 

This Month  	
40  	     
542,309         	
$61,844 



eka...

This Year  	
928    	
24,418,239          	
$3,896,701 

This Month  	
21     	
532,000      	
$24,225 



AUT...

This Year  	
2,561         	
44,367,399             
$14,619,919 

This Month  	
46      	
703,435       	   
$123,450 


now check out eme..


11 million shares traded already this month !!!!!

and thats about the average month for the share..  with 62.85m shares on issue. april and may were exceptions with 32 mill shares traded.. 


from april - july 2008 eme traded 6 mill sort of all three aussies jvps yearly totals combined!!

i tend to view the 3 partners shares on the ASX as being fairly quiet and volumes are extremely low..


----------



## buzzbuzz100

Price of EME is going down the pan.
Today 1,950,000 EME were dumped at 7.5p whilst trading at 10/11.5p
No comment.


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> its amazing when people gloat about how things go, i have chops on ignore as his view on investing is short term and not long term.
> 
> no one here is asking anyone to keep the faith, everyone is responsible for their own investment decisions. chops just tries to make out that this is whats happening and then adds free licence to criticise..
> 
> i doubt things can change with him..



No-one asks for anyone to keep the faith... apart from that mass message you sent people all that time back? 

And short term? I'm holding bucket loads of AOE, that are for the long term.

I'm only doing what you guys told me to do... to come back when it is known that ADI is a complete failure. Now who of you are prepared to man up and admit it?

Amazing the love that people keep for an absolute dog of a stock that will most likely lose them everything they put in.


----------



## prawn_86

prawn_86 said:


> Not 1st announcement. It will be one Mr Hypothetical 2 chooses to trade.
> 
> And for simplicity lets say Mr Hypothetical 2's money is in a Bankwest account earning 7%pa from today.
> 
> So Mr H 1 currently has 50000 shares initial outlay = $18500
> 
> Mr H 2 has $18500 in his bank account waiting to buy on his choice of announcement
> 
> **Both Mr H's will be overseas for 2 weeks so Mr H 2 is hoping there isnt an ann in that time**





Mr H 2 is carving it up by having cash in the bank.

Admittedly most stocks have lost value in this timeframe, but it goes to show to not buy things in a downtrend, no matter how confident some members are, or how upbeat co anns are, or how many pretty pictures and graphs are displayed.


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> Mr H 2 is carving it up by having cash in the bank.
> 
> Admittedly most stocks have lost value in this timeframe, but it goes to show to not buy things in a downtrend, no matter how confident some members are, or how upbeat co anns are, or how many pretty pictures and graphs are displayed.




prawn,  you seem to have done the same thing in BCC thread from .40 to .05  and yet adi has not dropped to those level yet but who knows where it goes on minimal volumes

BCC

This Month  	
40  	
1,140,100  	
62,944  

This Year 	
3,398 	
78,683,071 	
20,725,773 	


imho your bcc is also going through the same cycle.. oil price dropping with lack of world demand.. 

prawn,, in a downward cycle its really a no brainer that cash in the bank will beat any falling share index.. 

comparing one investment to another is not going to interest many, but thanks for telling me that you think money in the bank beats investing and picking the right moment to invest,, you have missed three cycles in adi history since posting this garbage that could have done well with your investing.. 

.18 to .39
.29 to .43
.20 to .34

thats pretty poor form prawn.. you missed 3 great chances to make massive returns in a very long world wide downward trend..

now i hope your going to post on every board how poor their investment went,, and keep in mind prawn no one is telling anyone to invest here, this is a forum to discuss the operations of adi, which is what i do.. your the only one carrying on about the sp..  

do you want to discuss the sugarkane or yemen propects or simply discuss share prices?


----------



## chops_a_must

Agentm said:


> thats pretty poor form prawn.. you missed 3 great chances to make massive returns in a very long world wide downward trend..
> 
> now i hope your going to post on every board how poor their investment went,, and keep in mind prawn no one is telling anyone to invest here, this is a forum to discuss the operations of adi, which is what i do.. your the only one carrying on about the sp..
> 
> do you want to discuss the sugarkane or yemen propects or simply discuss share prices?




I love it how you always trot this out.

You invested in ADI, and subsequently missed a fair chunk of one of the greatest bull markets in history, and caught all of the bust.

Pretty good going there.


----------



## barney

chops_a_must said:


> I'm only doing what you guys told me to do... to come back when it is known that ADI is a complete failure. Now who of you are prepared to man up and admit it?




Hey Chops,    Failure? ..... Yep ... I admit it.  (Time will be the final judge though ...... on the current time frame ... yeah, its a failure ) ..... 

You are quite right in some ways to have a go Chops ..... and to be fair, you did give it a fair bit of time before you came back to remind us.  

You are a bit of a stirrer though eh? 

On face value, I don't think we can argue with you ..... it looks like a profit on ADI shares may well be some time in the future .... (You can say "if ever" and atm that statement would be justified)

Funnily enough the best time to "invest" in any stock is when its at rock bottom ............. is ADI at rock bottom yet?    .... Well I think it may even drop a little further, but on NO volume until the play is proved a fizzer ...

Is it a fizzer ..... I don't think so, but punters don't invest in maybes in the current market

Do I wish I hadn't invested in ADI? ....... Nah ..... I just wish I was investing the same amount of cash at today's (maybe next months) prices ....... 

Will I buy more if it drops to 5 cents or less? .............. If the fundamental possibilities remain positive and the price dives ..... I will,  because I would then be effectively buying what I already own for a crapload less .... 

Am I an idiot ..... Of course !!! .... What kind of idiot "averages down" 

In the end we all do what we do ............. I personally have lost a crapload (I like that word) more money in the past doing way dumber things than investing in a fledgling O/G Co. which is having some initial issues getting going ............... If it fails, so do I ........... I've failed before, and will no doubt fail again ......

Now be nice Chops .... some of us are suffering around here


----------



## Hatchy

I agree with a lot of what Barney has said. 

I've lost a lot of money, but hey I could have done my dough on a property trust as well.... 

Chops, you're one of those annoying guys that just has to say something to rub crap in other's faces aren't you?

Lets just keep talking about the prospects going forward, not making this a smear contest. 

... Keep the faith ...


----------



## Lucky_Country

Yes now is the time to really be buying ADI at these rock bottom prices but how many do you want.

Volume is tiny ADI is very tightly held and news hopefully positive is no it the to distant future.

Anyone who buys now I has a hell of alot of upside potential in what timeframe Im not to sure  but it will happen imo.

The chalks are turning out to be a complex drill but the knowledge bank is growing.


----------



## nioka

chops_a_must said:


> Bollocks mate.
> 
> Had a look at the gold sector lately?
> 
> Just because ADI is sitting at all time lows, despite all the 'hopeful' postings does not mean that everything else is going to poo.
> 
> But yes, make sure you all "keep the faith" you lot. I'm sure it's done you very well in this stock over the years.




I have to break my self imposed ban on posting to show how the above is utter rubbish. 

ADI has been one of my best stocks. As posted before I have been trading back and forth between ADI, AUT and recently EKA. In fact a large proportion of the trades mentioned above by Agent have in fact been my trades.The ratio between the three regularly varies giving the oportunity to switch from one to the other and always be in the play at Sugarloaf. It is all there in my previous posts, check them out.

 My original investment was worth $3700. Today, even at the low prices my holding is worth around $45,000. Along the way I have creamed off my original investment and some profit. I still have faith in the project. That faith has been maintained by examining the facts that Agent M has shown. I have found nothing he has posted to be factually incorrect. However Oil drilling is a spec investment and not for the faint hearted.

 If there were more posters like Agent and more stocks like ADI and less sceptics like Chops then ASF would be the forum it was. (another forum I now frequent  had (yesterday) 487 posts on 6 stocks I was following while ASF had 4.

Chops, if you were more constructive and less destructive ASF would be a better forum.

ADIers know the problems and if they were not happy to hold they would be exADIers. It is a free choice. To me ADI has already been a 10 bagger and everything from here is a bonus.


----------



## chops_a_must

nioka said:


> My original investment was worth $3700. Today, even at the low prices my holding is worth around $45,000. Along the way I have creamed off my original investment and some profit. I still have faith in the project. That faith has been maintained by examining the facts that Agent M has shown. I have found nothing he has posted to be factually incorrect. However Oil drilling is a spec investment and not for the faint hearted.



If you are a real investor, it is irrelevant what your paper profit is now, because the way ADI is going, it could well be worth nothing.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well it now looks like Indonesia South Bengara is floundering with jvp not paying the $1 million to secure the deal.

Well my old fashioned buy and hold with ADI has certainly not worked out at the momment although I definately do feel Sugarkane will deliver the goods but its not happening in any great rush.

Hopefully an update on Weston 1 will be positive maybe something on Kowalik would also be a nice xmas present if any report comes out tommorrow.

Wouldnt want too end the year on Indonesian not coming good.

Merry Xmas fellow ADI suffers.


----------



## Hatchy

The report is out, and hey, what's that?
They've done zip, zero zilch, nothing, nada. 

What a surprise.... 

TCEI - those buggers are screwing us over.


----------



## maverick11

I am expecting to see ADI management take a pay cut, do other investors think that is a reasonable call?

Times are tough...management have not delivered on one thing in 3yrs...funds are running short...

Would be good to see positive action at kennedy and kowalik and some news from kunde frac.  Weston will easily push well into Feb or longer imho.

Hope you all had a good xmas!!


----------



## Agentm

recent presentation from AUT with some huge plans for 2009

Forward Plan – Austin Chalk Assets

 Program under way to establish a portfolio of appraisal and development
wells.
 Need to build up a statistically meaningful population of well performance.
 Further wells in the Sugarloaf AMI are planned and permitted.
 It is expected that additional rigs will be introduced in 2009 and drilling
expanded into Aurora’s other AMI’s Longhorn and Ipanema, adjacent to
Sugarloaf.
 Strategy over next 2 years is to demonstrate productivity over our wide
acreage position, establish reserve potential and build production.

APPRAISAL DRILLING PLANNED TO ROLL IN TO MULTI RIG
DEVELOPMENT PHASE 2009

AUT - Value Proposition
 Large net acreage position on giant multi Tcfe resource
 8 old well penetrations help delineate field boundaries. 9 recent well
penetrations in Sugarkane field all observing hydrocarbons –including step
out Kowalik #1H
*Appraisal & development now – NOT exploration*
 Near term producer with imminent growth, wells tied in for immediate
production
 Premiums paid on recent transactions for analogous US onshore
unconventional gas plays of similar maturity
THE EXISTENCE OF THE FIELD IS ESTABLISHED.
CURRENT PHASE WILL DEMONSTRATE VALUE POTENTIAL.

with AUT claiming the weston well is 100% appraisal and development and ADI reluctant to say anything othert than exploration, the difference of opinion is vast imho.

from adi presentation

• Prospectivity

o Kowalik was a 10km step-out.......(insert your own conclusion here)

Kowalik 50’ flare while drilling Kowalik Initial production

o Gas & condensate saturation confirmed in chalk zone over a
wide area (~60 sq km)

o Gross 600bcfe potential remains


• Forward Plan

o Take a pause in the multi-well drilling program

o Consolidate technical and Chalk Production from Sugarkane wells in
adjoining area


you have kowalik as adi says burning a 50 foot flare during drilling and initial production (clean up)  then nothing!!  extremely frustrating imho when there is no explanation given.. but there are many factors that have to be considered and tests done primarily to determine what was the cause of the well bore damage in kowalik. then after the initial agreement is made on the potentially correct diagnosis, a solution needs to be agreed upon and initiated.

Formation Damage and Horizontal Wells - A Productivity Killer?

http://www.hycal.com/old/PDFPapers/Formation Damage/Formation Damage & Horiz Wells.pdf

Mechanism of Formation Damage During Drilling of Horizontal Wells

Mechanisms of fonnation damage which may be operative in
reducing the productvity of horizontal wells have been discussed
in the literature by various authors1,2.

These damage mechanisms can be grouped into several major
categories,

Fines Migration. 

Fines migration is the motion of naturally preexisting
particulate matter in the pore system. This may be
induced during the drilling process by high fluid leakoff rates of
water or oil-based mud filtrate into the near wellbore region
caused by elevated hydrostatic overbalance pressures or
excessively high underbalanced pressures

External Drilling/Mud Solids Invasion. 

The invasion of artificial mud solids (weighting agents, fluid loss agents or
bridging agents), or naturally generated mud solids produced by
bit-rock interactions and not removed by surface solids control
equipment into the fonnation during overbalanced drilling
conditions.

Phase Trapping. 

The loss of both water or oil based drilling
mud filtrate to the fonnation in the near wellbore region due to
leakoff during overbalanced drilling operations, or due to
spontaneous imbibition in some situations during underbalanced
drilling operations, can result in permanent entrapment of a
portion or all of the invading fluid resulting in adverse relative
permeability effects which can reduce oil or gas permeability in
the near wellbore region.

Chemical Incompatibility of Invading Fluids with the In-situ
Rock Matrix 

Many formations contain potentially reactive
material in-situ in the matrix, including reactive swelling clays
such as smectite or mixed layer clays, or deflocculatable
materials such as kaolinite or other loosely attached fines.
Expansion or motion of these materials within the pore system,
which may be induced by the invasion of non-equilibrium water
based mud filtrates into the near wellbore region, can cause
considerable reductions in permeability

Fluid-Fluid Incompatibility Effects Between Invading Fluids
and In-Situ Fluids. 

Oil or water based mud filtrates invading
into the near wellbore region during overbalanced drilling
processes can react adversely with in-situ hydrocarbons or waters
present in the matrix with detrimental results which may reduce
permeability. Problems would include the fonnation of insoluble
precipitates or scales between incompatible waters, de-asphalting
of the in-situ crude or hydrocarbon based drilling fluid caused by
blending of incompatible oils, or the formation of highly viscous
stable water in oil emulsions due to turbulent blending of invaded
filtrates with either in-situ water or oil.

Near Wellbore Wettabllity Alteration and Surface Adsorption
Effects. 

Many drilling fluid additives used for mud rheology,
stability, emulsion control, corrosion inhibition, torque reduction
or lubricity contain polar surfactants or compounds which can be
preferentially adsorbed on the surface of the rock. The physical
adsorption of these compounds can cause reductions in
permeability by the physical occlusion of the pore system, in the
case of high molecular weight long chain polymers, particularly
in low permeability porous media where the small pore throats
may be easily bridged by long chain polymer molecules. Polar
compound adsorption may alter the wetting characteristics of the
matrix in the near wellbore region, generally in most cases to a
preferentially more oil-wet state. This causes a potentially
significant increase in water phase relative permeability in this
region, which may adversely elevate producing water oil ratio for
the well if the completion is in a zone where a mobile water
saturation is present.

Mechanical Near Wellbore Damage Effect. 

Mechanical action of the bit, combined with tine cuttings, poor hole cleaning and a poorly centralized drill string may result in the formation of a
thin "glaze" of low permeability surrounding the wellbore. This
problem is believed to be aggravated by straight gas drilling
operations, where a large amount of heat is generated at the rockbit
interface due to the poor heat transfer capacity of the gas
based drilling fluid system in comparison to a conventional
drilling fluid. Open hole completions in low permeability clastic formations  
tend to be the most probable candidates for this type
of damage. Glazing will not generally occlude large permeability
features, such as fractures or lugs, and the glaze is usually
readily removable in carbonate based formations with a light acid
wash due to its highly soluble nature.


i recommend reading the whole article, it certainly is far superior to being critical of TCEI or the directors of adi.. this is a greenfields play, its very hard to get any data from anyone to help you when your drilling and each time you drill you get new circumstances and events thrown at you, all which change how and what happens in the well bore..

to rescue or fish out a drill string in kowalik would imho have required a different approach to how to keep the well balanced during that phase.. there are lots of ways to speculate on what happened, but imho kowalik was demonstrating a whole different set of numbers and what it produces today is not anything like what it was likely to have produced should the well bore not be damaged for whatever reason.

all imho and dyor


----------



## resourceboom

agree with what your saying agentm.... however

the JVPS are not telling us any information, why not put more detail into the announcements, rather then have everyone have to ring them to get more info. we are the owners of the business.

lets hope its that last wellbore damage, so it can be nicely cleaned up with an acid wash


----------



## Agentm

with these things they would be doing all sorts of tests on it, like pressure build up tests, and there would be some understandings gleaned from that. its hard to understand waht happened to kowalik, i had a photo fo sunday night flare, there was one during the day that adi posted on their last presentation, they were easily 50 feet on clean up, as were the flares during the last stages of the drilling.  what happened afterwards to cause this to stop is unknown.  it baffles me still. i mean during drilling you can damage a well, but this one was finished, the well was roaring and spitting out oil and flaring like all hell on clean up, then zip?????????????????  wtf????

imho an acid job with coil tubing unit would be the most likely candidate for kowalik, and if its to happen then it would be in the next few months, and we have seen them talk about it sooner than that on some presentations recently.  



i hear they are burning something at kowalik, probably just cleaning up the pit, but you never know..  i hear they were planning on putting that well on production recently..

weston is still on the go..


----------



## Agentm

weston..  



looks huge out on its own in the middle of nowhere imho..

i post this for the members of the forum who are nice enough to say a kind word here and there.  i stay in for the big picture!

happy new year hey!!

if your lucky enough i may post a shed load more of other sites, depends on how hard you lot bite i guess..


----------



## sam76

Thanks Agent.

You can certainly see where all the $$$$$$$$ goes........

Happy new year to you as well


----------



## resourceboom

Thanks agent and for all your research, lets hope it finally rewards you in 09. I'd love to get some great Weston news before EKA's placement is due, but since that is 30 Jan dont think we'll make it.

Happy new year all, bring on 09!!


----------



## Agentm

eka had a massive trading day on volumes and went well up in their sp. 

32.4%	1,972,635


good stuff imho..


kowalik.. neat site imho, workers on site atm


----------



## Agentm

31 December 2008
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT THE SUGARLOAF AMI

Adelphi Energy (Adelphi) advises the following update on operations at the Weston -1H well which is located within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Weston -1H

*Adelphi has been advised by the Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that the production casing has now been run and cemented at a depth of 12,250 ft*. Preparations are currently underway to commence drilling the final hole section which will be steered horizontally through the Austin Chalk.
The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has been reported to have successfully produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and at the Kowalik - 1H well.


----------



## Agentm

last one for now..

kennedy 1H..  which is in the eagleford and looks kinda lonely out there on its own. 

btw the news on weston was a relief in terms of the last three weeks solely dedicated to getting that well fixed.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> eka had a massive trading day on volumes and went well up in their sp.
> 
> 32.4%	1,972,635




Finally agentm is human and makes a mistake. I wish EKA had gone up 32.4%. No such luck. It was EME.

However if that is his biggest mistake I'll be happy.

Pictures look great. Looks like some production facilities. Thanks for posting them.

Happy New Year agent and all ADIers and ASFers.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> Finally agentm is human and makes a mistake. I wish EKA had gone up 32.4%. No such luck. It was EME.
> 
> However if that is his biggest mistake I'll be happy.
> 
> Pictures look great. Looks like some production facilities. Thanks for posting them.
> 
> Happy New Year agent and all ADIers and ASFers.




thanks for the correction. 

it must not have made much sense, so apologies there..

eme did make the meteoric rise yesterday on heavy trade.

usually such events match up with events that occur in texas. be it coincidence or not, then it follows with releases from them about that event anywhere from days/weeks after. so imho there may well be some excellent news to come through from them. as there is no other events surrounding eme that can explain the spike that i have seen or heard of... my own hunch would be events around kunde 3.. but its purely speculation..


----------



## estseon

For the record, trading in EME on New Year's Eve (4 hours to midday) was 1.5million. The closing price spread on 30th December was 12/12.5 and that for 31/12 was 13/11.5, so mid price was 1/8th of a penny less, though this has little meaning as the MMs widened the spread to balance their position before a public holiday (1/2p each way). Broadly speaking, the rise held.

Tomorrow (Jan 2) is a normal trading day but sandwiched between a public holiday and a weekend it would not be a good day to release significant news. That hasn't stopped EME in the past.

If there is anything underlying the spurt of buying other than traders taking a punt, we are more likely to hear next week.

EME has a record of reporting Block A developments very much after the event. The latest example was Kunde 3 fracture stimulation, which was reported in the Interim statement after it had commenced.

A Happy & prosperous New Year to all. We could do with a change in the tide.


----------



## estseon

Friday was uneventful for EME. A small rise of 0.75p and 539k traded. No news release.

Have a good weekend all.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> For the record, trading in EME on New Year's Eve (4 hours to midday) was 1.5million. The closing price spread on 30th December was 12/12.5 and that for 31/12 was 13/11.5, so mid price was 1/8th of a penny less, though this has little meaning as the MMs widened the spread to balance their position before a public holiday (1/2p each way). Broadly speaking, the rise held.
> 
> Tomorrow (Jan 2) is a normal trading day but sandwiched between a public holiday and a weekend it would not be a good day to release significant news. That hasn't stopped EME in the past.
> 
> If there is anything underlying the spurt of buying other than traders taking a punt, we are more likely to hear next week.
> 
> EME has a record of reporting Block A developments very much after the event. The latest example was Kunde 3 fracture stimulation, which was reported in the Interim statement after it had commenced.
> 
> A Happy & prosperous New Year to all. We could do with a change in the tide.





hey estseon


when you say this i think your right myself

"If there is anything underlying the spurt of buying other than traders taking a punt, we are more likely to hear next week."

there is plenty happening on the ground in live oak, frac operations, flaring on baker wells and on kunde 3..


"EME has a record of reporting Block A developments very much after the event. The latest example was Kunde 3 fracture stimulation, which was reported in the Interim statement after it had commenced."


its apparent to me the new well, baker olsen, has not being reported by EME as a well they are participating in, i wonder if EME will participate in that one or not myself. 

with flares being seen subsequent to connections to the pipeline on the two baker wells, as well as flares on kunde 3 after frac operations (perhaps clean up?) last week,  its suggesting news must be getting close.. 

as for those trading spikes, its very clsoe to whats happening out in live oak imho..

imho everyone including the jvp partners will welcome data from all three wells.

baker olsen drilling way and being permitted for a horizontal completion, will mean weston and baker olsen may finish pretty close together.


----------



## kirtdog

this share is cheap... i havent done much research but looking at the charts and reading a little bit about it sounds like it is well worth an educated punt..


----------



## seasprite

Weston -1H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that drilling has
now commenced in the final hole section and at 6am Texas time on 6 January 2009 the well
had reached a depth of 12,471 ft. The well trajectory is now being built to horizontal and will
be landed within the Austin Chalk.

That wreaks of confidence this time . they don't seem to be announcing background pressures this time though. what's up


----------



## Agentm

seasprite said:


> Weston -1H
> Adelphi has been advised by the Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) that drilling has
> now commenced in the final hole section and at 6am Texas time on 6 January 2009 the well
> had reached a depth of 12,471 ft. The well trajectory is now being built to horizontal and will
> be landed within the Austin Chalk.
> 
> That wreaks of confidence this time . they don't seem to be announcing background pressures this time though. what's up




the background readings will come through once the well enters the chalks zone. so next report will possibly contain what the lateral is getting. 

they are very close to the chalks now and can drill ahead unimpeded, most laterals in the chalks take about 3 - 4 weeks to complete, so without any hitches the near future looks like getting us all the results we have been waiting for.

i am of course hoping that the well completes a full 6000 feet of lateral in the zone as i know all holders will be. the 1500 feet in kowalik which finished far short of the planned length due to drill string separation is not a result i want repeated, i would like a proper completion in the zone and to TD..

btw i am not convinced one bit that the kowalik well is not capable of far superior production rates in the future.. that result still perplexes me


----------



## Agentm

this is what it looks like


----------



## sam76

LOL I saw this the other week when having asearch on 'the tube'

it's pretty interesting to watch.

I also believe a US company had a similar visual explanation on it's website as well. I'll see if I can dig it up.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm said:


> this is what it looks like




Interesting video to watch you can see why its such a tricky operation.

Well after Im feeling  a bit more positive on the whole area yesterdays announcement was quite a decisive statement about drilling into the chalks so management seem far more confident and are expressing that view.

Patience has been stretched of late but Im sure we will be rewarded.


----------



## Agentm

i saw that weber (where the youtube thing is posted also) took over the geosouthern site in dewitt county, they have put in a new permit for the same site, a single lateral.

so they have taken over the goesouthern migura 1

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...PublicQuery=Y&name=MIGURA&univDocNo=485432365

also interesting is that weber claim to be one of the first companies to drill horizontal wells, so they started in the chalks, and also did extensive work in the barnett shale..

to see them come through as specialists in the middle of what conocophillips is buying up big time is very interesting indeed.

everyone likes this eagleford/chalks play alright.

this is worth a look

http://www.weberenergy.com/TxOilGas/Tx-Oil-Gas-1.html


this too

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=cEmadgNz9vI


----------



## Agentm

top 10 barnett shale producers in 2007 (RRC)

interesting to see burlington there and makes sense to have them chase the shale (eagleford) further.. note burlington is second highest on oil.. they like the condensate it seems..


----------



## estseon

As foreshadowed in its interim statement, EME has withdrawn from further participation in the special 16 well arrangement with TCEI. The withdrawal has effect in relation to Weston but not in relation to the 7 wells already drilled (Kennedy, Kowalik and the 5 on Block A of which 3 are confirmed as coming on stream producing revenues).

To be confirmed: it would appear that EME's cost contribution rate for Weston (from now) and for future wells in the AMI will be equal to its gross WI rate of 6%, which is a reduction from the original 7.5% for SL-1. It is not clear whether the 6% would apply to further development of SL-1 but I don't suppose that to be on anyone's agenda for some time to come.

EME emphasised that its withdrawal from the special deal would have little significance on its overall interest in the AMI when fully developed and it mentioned the 140 wells for full development mentioned by the other JVPs at various times. This is significant in that it appears to confirm EME's continued confidence in the project. It appears to confirm that EME's decision has been taken because the financial burden of a 27.5% contribution rate for AMI wells and 12.5% for Block A wells was just too much for it in the present market conditions.

It should be noted also that EME has other projects including, in particular, a coal bed methane project in Germany, which has a licence expiring in December of this year. That licence has been extended once already and it is likely that the company is under pressure to do a bit more than just shoot seismic in order to secure a continuation of its rights beyond 2009.

EME's action should NOT be seen as a vote of no confidence in the Sugarloaf project. There are plenty of reasons for the action that it has taken.


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## estseon

Kunde 3 flow results (new frac) now out.

Formerly producing zone of 900 ft length temporarily plugged to test new zone of 1,800 ft.

24 hr test produced 1.5mm cu ft gas + 270 barrels of condensate.

That is 420 boepd at their standard 10:1 conversion for gas.

The original 900 ft was last reported as producing 260 boepd.

That gives an average of 25 boepd / 100 ft completed.

This compares to the Baker twins (natural fractures) that seem to have been producing at the rate of 34 boepd / 100 ft completed based on last reports.

This suggests that a mixed completion of natural + stimulated might produce 30 boepd / 100 ft, or 1,800 boepd for a standard 6,000 ft lateral.

Kowalik, producing 280 boepd from 1,500 ft, is clearly out of line as previously suggested by agentm. Based on Block A production rates for natural fractures, it should be in the region of 500 boepd. If the remaining 3,000 ft can be made to produce at the Kunde 3 rate, that would add some 750 boepd, but that is speculative because it was drilled "in the wrong horizon".


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## Agentm

at last conocophillips has cracked the fracture stimulation problem!!!!!!

well done imho.. fantastic news really..



Sugarloaf Block A Update (Empyrean Energy)

RNS Number : 4524L
Empyrean Energy PLC
12 January 2009


Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block A, Texas USA


    *     Further 1800 feet of perforations added to the well
    *     This 1800 feet of perforations has been separately fracture stimulated
* *     Production to sales for the 24 hours to 1600 hours Texas time 7th January 2009 averaged approximately 1.5 million cubic feet of gas per day and 270 barrels of condensate per day
*


Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the USA, provides the following update on operations on Block A which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field:

TCEI JV Block A-1 Well   (Kunde 3H)


Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") that the TCEI JV Block A-1 (kunde 3) well is flowing to sales after having had 1800
feet of new perforations added during December.

The well is flowing to sales from a new 1800 feet interval that has been fracture stimulated in late December. The original 900 feet of perforations has been plugged off during this new production test. It is the intention of the operator to couple the original 900 feet of perforations with this additional 1800 feet interval following further flow testing.

Empyrean has a working interest of 7.5% in this well. Further updates will be provided following developments.

Commenting today Empyrean director Tom Kelly stated "It is great to see production to sales from this well on Block A after a successful fracture stimulation program on a new interval. This is the first of a number of Block A wells that were having work commencing in December to be brought back on to production."


again its worth contemplating what tom kelly is saying, for the first time the conocophillips operator has been able to counter the massive pressure issues faced in previous frac exercises and get a fracture stimulation of the well successfully completed.. a huge breakthrough imho.

each well is improving on the previous well by using the data from the previous, we have seen changes in how to deal with the drilling thus far, from experiments in underbalanced and cemented liner  (kunde 3) to overbalanced and cemented liner (kennedy) and underbalanced open hole with kowalik.

eme has indicated there are a number of block A wells in live oak that had work done in december, which confirms what i have heard, so plenty of good data to come back from eme in the near term still.

the fracture stimulation success in kunde 3 could also have implications on how they look at kowalik. 


all in all a brilliant result for the jvp in terms of having devised a frac that will deal with the massive pressure problems thus far experienced in all wells.


----------



## estseon

"This is the first of a number of Block A wells that were having work commencing in December to be brought back on to production".
============================================================

Only 3 wells have been on production ("...brought back on to..."): Kunde 3 (which is what the RNS was about), Baker 1 and Baker 2.

Taking Kelly's words at face value, he appears to be saying that the Baker twins have also had "work" done to them. Previously, we had been informed that they were being hooked up to the new infrastructure. But Kelly has mentioned "work" in the context of the "work" done to Kunde 3, which was fracture stimulation. So, does he mean to say that the Baker twins have been fracture stimulated also? Or have they just been cleaned up after being shut in?

The reason for labouring this point is that Baker 2 was completed with a slotted liner, as Kowalik, so a successful fracture stimulation operation will be of considerable interest and Baker 1 may not have been completed at all:

"...Workover operations commenced on 29 January 2008. The operator was forced to leave in the open hole a fish made up of a length of 2 7/8” tubing and a 5 7/8” rock bit. It is permanently lodged in the horizontal part
of the open hole in the interval 12,676 ft to 13,097 ft...." (EME Report for y/e 31 March 2008).

The latest RNS also only reported the new fracture stimulation of the 1.800ft not previously stimulated.

quattro44, who appears to have drilling experience, had this to say about the 900 ft previously fracture stimulated:
===========================================================

"quattro44 - 13 Nov'08 - 20:38 - 44775 of 44793

Jacko. In may they only did a small acid frac over 5 small intervals of perforations (Maybe 10 feet each or so) along a 900 foot section. This would only have the effect of literally cleaning up the formation in the area of the perforations. i.e. not really a frac at all but more like a high pressure acid job. Now, they are obviously proposing to perforate a much larger section and hydraulically frac the lot. Serious stuff. look out!
q44"
===========================================================

Going back to the EME 2008 report:

==========================================================
"Gas shows were encountered over the whole horizontal length of approximately 2,500 ft. Multiple gas flares measuring up to 65’ were recorded over approximately a 1,000 ft horizontal length, including an interval of about 600 ft that produced a constant gas flare..."
==========================================================

So, was the 900ft section chosen for the acid treatment that initially produced "...an average gas flow of 2.5mmcfgpd accompanied by 950 bcpd and no water through a 14/64” choke..." that 1,000 ft section that produced multiple flares?

The reason for labouring this point is that Kowalik was reported as having similar flaring over at least part of the 1,500 ft or so 'drilled in the right horizon'. If Burlington has re-worked that 900 ft of Kunde 3 and if it is now
producing as it did before immediately after the acid clean up, that could have implications for the potential for Kowalik.

This is all speculation until EME reports the full flow results for the 3 wells and provides further information on the "work" done.


----------



## Agentm

conocophillips have now got two step out development wells next to kunde 1, 2 & 3 ..

the latest is a 6294 foot horizontal called Lasca Butler Searcy 1H

imho the three wells are demonstrating the interest in the formation is not waining at all


----------



## maverick11

Some encouraging news today  

They have cleaned up Kowalik and are now preparing for an acid frac.  They must be hopeful of a positive outcome imho to throw funds at in now before they finish Weston.

As for Weston, it sounds like they have really nailed out how to drill these chalks.


----------



## queenstown

Any idea how long it will take to complete the Horizontal section (assuming TD of 6000ft).....................


----------



## basilio

This is all very fascinating... I have no doubt that Agentm has an excellent technical understanding of all the ins and outs of drilling for oil. Great.

Trouble is I remember back in November 08 when it seemed that there was going to be a real gusher, this was the one and so on. The shares surged to 36cents.... and then it all went pear shaped. Now sitting at 12 cents with no doubt many bruised pockets wondering exactly what went wrong.

And now it seems that "the problems have been fixed' . I feel however that the singed specs will want to see some very real results before biting and being bitten again.  Any thoughts?


----------



## Agentm

a few points.. i am no expert in he ins and outs in of driling for oil and gas and its only your opinion that i have excellent technical understandings not mine.. 


conocophillips has put in all the dollars on finding a solution to whatever formation that the kunde 3 well sits in. so far its been declared that the well is in the upper chalks. 

the "problem" that was "fixed" that i referred to was how to properly fracture stimulate against the intense and massive pressure that had previously caused the screen outs in kunde 3.  nothing to do with the ADI operations at all ..

now if your point is that your saying that i am saying kowlik is fixed,, *it is in no way fixed* and the remedial works done so far have simply allowed the operator to clear the blockages found, and also gives the operator confidence to be able to get to the toe of the well and do a further acid wash if needed.

currently the well is cleaning up after a second (and also previously unannounced) washout of the kowalik well with a coiled tubing unit.

please dont put words in my mouth regarding kowalik being fixed basilo.. also this is the one and its a gusher never came from me.. cheers..

the status of wells adi are involved in are to the best of my knowledge as follows.. 

kennedy 1h, 2 fracs attempted on the eagleford shale, one screen out and one partial screen out, well shut in i believe

kowalik.. 1500 of formation is in open hole, well has a slotted liner, 2 clean ups attempted thus far, the second with a coiled tubing unit. well is flowing back as reported today.

Weston ..  well is according to the recent announcement now drilling away into the formation with elevated background reaading happening from 50 - 250

cheers


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## seasprite

latest quarterly report for ADI can be found at http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/news/runner.php?section=asx

A$0.5m cost over run at Weston is not good , surely they could find a turnkey contractor that drills at a fixed cost basis , especially now.


----------



## blues

Will be interesting to see what assets are sold or what they farm down? There isnt to much to choose from!


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## Agentm

i dont believe there are any other operators other than nabors and pattersons..


lasca butler searcy in live oak put in a report yesterday they were at 6000 feet, thats where weston was on the 12 dec according to their reports to the rrc.  there is marlene olsen being drilled also by conocophillips.

conocophillips is using nabors have not done any good at all, only one lateral over about 2000 feet so far and  that was with 3 attempts in kunde 3,  in baker 2 they tried 3 times and came up short also. 

the current rig did one pass with kenney, one pass with kowalik and we know is now drilling through the chalks zone this minute.


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## estseon

I posted the following summary on ADFVN. Note that we are currently awaiting updated figures for Kunde 3 (original 900 ft), Baker 1 (have they managed to remove the abandoned drill bit and complete the well?) and Baker 2. The JVPs appear to admit now that Kowalik is damaged and I do not suppose that the JVPs will do anything with Kennedy until CoP has worked out a successful fracture design for Marlene Olsen (although the lowest of the zones encountered might be Edwards and we might have to wait for them to move up to the Eagleford).

Kunde 3 900 ft (natural fractures) 29 boepd / 100ft
Kunde 3 1,800 ft (artificial fractures) 23 boepd / 100 ft
Baker 1 (natural fractures but blocked) 23 boepd / 100ft
Baker 2 (natural fractures) 34 boepd / 100
Kennedy (shale) 10 boepd / 100 ft
Kowalik 1,500 ft (natural fractures) – damaged – 13 boepd / 100ft
Kowalik initially – 28 boepd / 100 ft

natural fractures in the chalks might produce flows in the region of 30 - 35 boepd / 100ft (up to 2,100 boepd for a 6,000 ft lateral)

artificial fracturing of the chalk might produce flows in the region of 20 - 25 boepd / 100ft (minimum of 1,200 boepd for a 6,000 ft lateral)

Gas has been counted at 10,000 cuft = 1 barrel, the conversion used by EME.

The condensate / gas mix across the wells is fairly consistent at about 70% + or - 5% (even Kennedy). Baker 1 is a bit odd (50%) but it has a drill bit lodged in the well bore blocking flow.


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## Lucky_Country

Weston will prove to be a critical well for the jvp's as by now one would hope they know exactly what is going on and their recent statements seem to echo those feeling with the confidence in drilling the chalks.

ADI are obviously looking to sell down asstes is Texas one of them ? Is it turning out trickier than first expected and with great potential yet to be realised maybe a sell down would suit.

Yemen strikes me as being the jewel in the crown and now all looking set for a drilling campaign.

Indonesia the less said the better ADI have been seriously let down there imo.


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## Agentm

did someone say 4.75 tcf??????????????


geosouthern have farmed in expert drillers and some good cash backed oilmen..  

nice.......


AREF Energy Holding announces the discovery of natural gas quantities in DeWitt County - Texas

AREF Energy Holding announces the discovery of natural gas quantities in DeWitt County - Texas, within the project that is 50% owned by AREF energy and the balance by U.S. partners "WEBER ENERGY & GEO SOUTHERN".

It should be noted that "Halliburton" was selected by the partners to carry the initial drilling activities, and coring. "Core Labs" which is a company listed in the stock market and one of the most renowned laboratories in upstream field- analyzed core samples from exploratory wells and reported the discovery of hydrocarbons in the cores.

The Corelabs report showed an estimated natural gas reserve of nearly 19 trillion cubic feet. When taking into consideration a recovery factor of 25%, the volume of gas available for production might be estimated at 4.75 trillion cubic feet, If fully developed and produced.

Weber Energy is currently taking preliminary steps to commence gas production operations from the first two wells and will use Halliburton or Shlumberger expertise for the fracturing process. Accordingly, actual production is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2009. Within the same concession, other layers are being evaluated for possible containment of gas reserves are also evaluating other layers containing for gas reserves.

It's worth mentioning that on 21 October 2008, PETROHAWK Energy CP (NYSE: HK) announced the start-up of actual daily production of 9 million cubic feet of free gas from their first well out of "Eagle Ford Shale" geological layer, and 13 Million Cubic feet of daily production from their second well. Such announcement would reinforce our positive outlook on our gas project which would have similar characteristics.

Such achievements will have positive and significant contribution on AREF Energy financial results for the coming years.


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## Agentm

that right 4.75 tcf!!!


and the bigger picture...

19 tcf

hello?? anyone home here, anyone following this??

i believe they have about 75,000 acres

*The Corelabs report showed an estimated natural gas reserve of nearly 19 trillion cubic feet. When taking into consideration a recovery factor of 25%, the volume of gas available for production might be estimated at 4.75 trillion cubic feet, If fully developed and produced.*


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## Sith1s

Just noticed a trading halt announced today.  Which should hopefully be resolved by Wednesday.  Cause for concern perhaps??


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## seasprite

probably farmout of permit with maybe the issue of shares that weren't taken up in rights issue at a guess.


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## Agentm

Web Posted: 12/16/2008 12:00 CST


Company claims gas find in rural county



   By Vicki Vaughan and Anton Caputo   - Express-News

A Kuwaiti company said it has discovered a huge natural gas field in DeWitt County, in South Central Texas, that holds reserves equal to 80 percent of the state's annual production.

So far, though, no one has been able to confirm printed reports that the company's claims are true.

Aref Energy Holding, a unit of a Kuwaiti investment firm, said in a statement Sunday that its joint-venture operation in DeWitt County found roughly 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, with about 25 percent, or 4.75 trillion cubic feet, that is “recoverable.”

“If it is true, that would be very large,” Texas Railroad Commission spokeswoman Ramona Nye said, but commission officials haven't heard any buzz about a major find in DeWitt County.

Texas produces about 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas a year and consumes about 4 trillion cubic feet a year, Nye said.

Texas accounts for one-third of the nation's natural gas production.

Aref said its project manager, Houston-based oil-field-services giant Halliburton Co., is taking “preliminary steps” to begin natural gas production, but Halliburton did not respond Monday to requests for comment.

If the reports are accurate, “that's a pretty substantial find ”” no question about it,” said Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

Officials and business leaders in DeWitt County were unaware of the announcement.

“I simply haven't heard of this,” County Judge Ben Prause said of the possibility of tens of billions of dollars' worth of natural gas being discovered in his largely rural area.

The names Aref Energy and DeWitt Tract Co., the joint venture company, were virtual unknowns to people in Cuero, the county seat. No filings or records could be found for either company at the county appraiser's office, the county clerk's office or the Pecan Valley Groundwater Conservation District.

“Wow ”” I hope it's true,” said Kay Wild, the Groundwater Conservation District's general manager. “This is very interesting, but all drill supply permits come through this office. I don't know of them.”

Other sources close to the oil and gas industry in DeWitt County, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, expressed similar confusion over the announcement and said “major players” in the industry were trying to confirm the news.

DeWitt County has been a hotbed of oil and gas activity in the last few years, a fact that made some in Cuero, 85 miles southeast of San Antonio, speculate that a major player in the industry could have slipped in unknown.

In late 2006, as competition over energy became intense, representatives from oil and gas companies converged on Cuero to lease mineral rights from landowners. The demand for storefronts, office space and hotels rooms for the leasing operations far outstripped the supply, said Kay Lapp, executive director at the Cuero Chamber of Commerce. Oil and gas representatives, known as “land men,” set up tables at the public library or any place they could find space.

The rush has since died down for a simple reason, Lapp said.

“There's probably not a single land lease left in this county,” she said.

SMU's Bullock said any excitement over a big discovery could be dampened by the market for natural gas.

“Prices have been declining,” he said. “The market is somewhat oversupplied to the point that activity is decreasing in the Barnett Shale,” the state's most productive natural gas region that has sparked a lot of activity in the Fort Worth area.

“The fact that you find gas of this size is great ”” but whether you find a market for it at an economic price is another matter,” he said. “Most forecasts that I've seen indicate that natural gas prices will probably decrease in 2009.”

Natural gas prices averaged $9.17 per thousand cubic feet for the first 11 months of 2008, but estimates are that prices will average $6.25 per thousand cubic feet in 2009, according to the Energy Information Agency.

“That's a 30 percent drop,” said Neil Gamson, an analyst with the agency, a part of the Energy Department.

Natural gas prices will decline, he said, because the economy is expected to shrink next year and because demand from key sectors will be weak.


----------



## seasprite

comment quote from mySA news

QUOTE
For some reason, the Express did not report some essential facts contained in the press release. First, Aref Energy Holding owns a 50% interest in 75,000 acres under lease in Dewitt County. The balance is held by "U.S. partners". The operator is Weber Energy, a private company based in Dallas, so Aref's name would not be on any of the permits or other filings with the Railroad Commission; that's why no one has heard of them. Halliburton is only a contractor being used by the operator; the release says Schlumberger may also be used. Two wells have been drilled so far. The reserve figures they give are very preliminary and I would not put a lot of stock in them. The release also refers to the Eagleford Shale, which extends over a number of counties in South and Southeast Texas, so presumably their discovery is in this formation. Being impermeable, this formation requires an expensive frac job before it will produce. So the real story is: they have drilled two wells in the Eagleford which appear to be capable of producing gas. That's great for them, but really not a big news story.
UNQUOTE

I don't think I would read too much into this , however the find appears to be close to the Karne's county border


----------



## fflintoff

seasprite said:


> comment quote from mySA news
> 
> QUOTE
> For some reason, the Express did not report some essential facts contained in the press release. First, Aref Energy Holding owns a 50% interest in 75,000 acres under lease in Dewitt County. The balance is held by "U.S. partners". The operator is Weber Energy, a private company based in Dallas, so Aref's name would not be on any of the permits or other filings with the Railroad Commission; that's why no one has heard of them. Halliburton is only a contractor being used by the operator; the release says Schlumberger may also be used. Two wells have been drilled so far. The reserve figures they give are very preliminary and I would not put a lot of stock in them. The release also refers to the Eagleford Shale, which extends over a number of counties in South and Southeast Texas, so presumably their discovery is in this formation. Being impermeable, this formation requires an expensive frac job before it will produce. So the real story is: they have drilled two wells in the Eagleford which appear to be capable of producing gas. That's great for them, but really not a big news story.
> UNQUOTE
> 
> I don't think I would read too much into this , however the find appears to be close to the Karne's county border




TXCO & Petrohawk employ a 8 - 10 stage frac at Eagleford:-

“On the Eagle Ford play, TXCO currently is rigging up to re-enter and drill a 3,300-foot horizontal lateral on the Briscoe Catarina West 1H (50% WI through completion). The lateral will have a cemented liner and will be fractured in 8-10 stages, as done by other operators developing the Eagle Ford. TXCO’s emerging Eagle Ford play covers 565,800 gross (312,900 net) acres covering 884 gross (489 net) sections, with estimated recoverable gas of 16 to 22 bcf per section. Recently, Petrohawk Energy Corporation completed an Eagle Ford well horizontally using a 10-stage frac that produced 9.1 mmcfde. The well is in LaSalle County, Texas, east of TXCO’s acreage, and is indicative of the Eagle Ford’s high potential.”

http://www.txco.com/news/2008/122208.htm


----------



## tomcat

The eagleford is certainly getting a lot of interest at the moment. Kennedy sits in the eagleford shale and we may be a chance of looking at that more seriously soon.

Conoco may also be looking at the eagleford in both the Kunde 2 and Marlene-Olsen verticals. 

If conoco / TCEI can work out how to successful complete and then frac horizontals in the shale it should be possible to revisit Kowalik and Weston and add further horizontals into this new zone.

Very exciting times ahead which ADI should be well positioned to participate in once it consolidates its balance sheet.


----------



## Agentm

i agree tomcat

i think seasprite is missing the point of the play a little, it extends far past dewitt as pioneer knows, and conoco has drilled a well past lavaca in the next county. colarado county (this is from memory for the county name)

and we all know apache and petrohawks movements also to the east and west also.

plenty of other players also.

i have seen lots of test wells in all the counties through to polk.. big names in there also..

i agree with the current focus in the upper zones, the chalks..

i will be interested to see if the news on both wells i hear translates to the midweekly..


----------



## seasprite

If I was missing the point agent , I would have not bought into AZZ's not yet drilled Yellow Rose permit in McMullen County.


----------



## Agentm

seasprite, i think you have when you discount the likes of geosouthern that have drilled already two wells in de witt and have farmed in aref and weber and allowed the minor holder weber to be operator and go free carry.


with two wells geosouthern have made it very attractive to  other cashed up entities. and they also see the importance of the eagleford as a large resource and the feed to the austin chalks.

just south of the migara,  pioneer have already got a lateral into the chalks and have got 7900 psi on the well head and have had that well sitting there for a good year or more, (johnson it think from memory) gravity is 60.. they call the chalks flintstone there.

enduring have put in a modiifed permit as well just there also for thieme gas unit 1, also imho hunting the eagleford and chalks.

pioneer have another permit there for their eagleford experiment.

pioneer have got a lavaca well going into the eagleford.

next to the geosouthern wells  migura and buchhorn conoco have on both sides got butler, koopman maraldo and hooks spread across the entire county, they extend past lavaca and back into karnes with bordovsky..

its all part of the same extended play seasprite.


----------



## seasprite

re read my post agent, especially the bit that says "comment quote from mySA news" . The words between the QUOTE and UNQUOTE marks are not mine.


----------



## Agentm

my apologies seaprite..

the AZZ well called francis dilworth and has the operator SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, was posted on the rrc in dec 08

many cashed operators besides san isidro are chasing this play. 

Submitted 09/15/2003 Approved 09/15/2003  	 536469   	 025-33245   	 SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)   	 LAWSON, BARBARA ESTATE   	 1    	 02   	 BEE   	 Vertical   	 New Drill   	 -   	 3600   	 Approved 
Submitted 09/09/2004 Approved 09/09/2004 	550753  	311-33759  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	GOLANDRIAN 	1   	01  	MCMULLEN  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	1200  	Approved 
Submitted 03/18/2005 Approved 03/23/2005 	559233  	025-33326  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	DIRKS-HATCH 	1   	02  	BEE  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	4100  	Approved 
Submitted 06/23/2005 Approved 06/29/2005 	602459  	249-32480  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	FREEBORN 	1B   	04  	JIM WELLS  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	2300  	Approved 
Submitted 07/14/2005 Approved 07/15/2005 	603471  	479-39209  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	C.H. RAMIREZ MINERALS, LTD. 	1   	04  	WEBB  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	7700  	Approved 
Submitted 03/13/2006 Approved 03/13/2006 	615708  	479-39453  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	C.H. RAMIREZ MINERALS, LTD. 	2   	04  	WEBB  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	9000  	Approved 
Submitted 10/09/2006 Approved 10/10/2006 	627207  	249-32499  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	LONESOME DOVE 	1   	04  	JIM WELLS  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	10000  	Approved 
Submitted 12/28/2006 Approved 02/07/2007 	627207  	249-32499  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	LONESOME DOVE 	1   	04  	JIM WELLS  	Vertical  	New Drill  	Yes  	10600  	Approved 
Submitted 02/27/2007 Approved 03/30/2007 	627207  	249-32499  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	LONESOME DOVE 	1   	04  	JIM WELLS  	Vertical  	New Drill  	Yes  	10600  	Approved 
Submitted 03/13/2007 Approved 04/11/2007 	635106  	131-38966  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	DUWEL COMPANY 	1   	04  	DUVAL  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	3850  	Approved 
Submitted 03/22/2007 Approved 03/29/2007 	635737  	249-32504  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	ZWERNEMANN NCT 	1   	04  	JIM WELLS  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	7000  	Approved 
Submitted 07/20/2007 Approved 07/31/2007 	642963  	249-32511  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	FREEBORN, JEAN H. 	1   	04  	JIM WELLS  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	16500  	Approved 
Submitted 08/07/2007 Approved 08/14/2007 	644012  	479-39907  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	C. H. RAMIREZ MINERALS, LTD B 	1   	04  	WEBB  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	8500  	Approved 
Submitted 02/13/2008 Approved 02/21/2008 	655216  	131-39065  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	TAYLOR 	1   	04  	DUVAL  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	14500  	Approved 
Submitted 04/10/2008 Approved 04/25/2008 	659365  	479-40185  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	ALEXANDER 	1   	04  	WEBB  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	8000  	Approved 
Submitted 04/25/2008 Approved 05/14/2008 	659365  	479-40185  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	ALEXANDER 	1   	04  	WEBB  	Vertical  	New Drill  	Yes  	8000  	Approved 
Submitted 05/28/2008 Approved 06/17/2008 	659365  	479-40185  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	ALEXANDER 	1   	04  	WEBB  	Vertical  	New Drill  	Yes  	8400  	Approved 
Submitted 06/23/2008 Approved 07/09/2008 	665137  	321-32243  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	WEATHERS 	1   	03  	MATAGORDA  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	11000  	Approved 
Submitted 08/19/2008 Approved 09/08/2008 	669439  	025-33613  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	YOWARD-SCHRAMM GAS UNIT 	2   	02  	BEE  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	11400  	Approved 
Submitted 12/02/2008 Approved 12/04/2008 	675741  	311-34120  	SAN ISIDRO DEVELOPMENT CO, L. C. (745991)  	FRANCES DILWORTH 	1   	01  	MCMULLEN  	Vertical  	New Drill  	-  	15000  	Approved

san isidro has 20 permits to its name and no horizontal experience as an operator.


----------



## Sean K

If ADI can not farm out or sell whatever they need to to remain solvent this quarter, are they in trouble?

I note the halt has turned into suspension, pending an announcement regarding equity financing, so assume they are talking to a bank, or ??

Any of you long termers concerned?


----------



## seasprite

UPDATE ON OPERATIONS AT WESTON-1H
Eureka Energy Limited (“Eureka”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations at the Weston-1H Well which is within the Sugarloaf AMI and is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field.
Weston - 1H
Eureka has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that at 06:00hrs on 20/01/09 (US CST) the well had reached a depth of 14,978 ft. Gas readings have increased since entering into the chalk with a maximum daily average reading of 3,100 gas units. Minor flares have been observed whilst drilling and circulating.
The well is targeting the upper chalk interval that has produced gas and condensate in three wells in the adjacent acreage and at the Kowalik #1H well. The well design continues to build upon the knowledge gained from recent operations and offset data.
Eureka has a 12.5% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI. Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf JV, and their respective working interests are:
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited 20%
Adelphi Energy Limited 20%


----------



## Agentm

kennas said:


> If ADI can not farm out or sell whatever they need to to remain solvent this quarter, are they in trouble?
> 
> I note the halt has turned into suspension, pending an announcement regarding equity financing, so assume they are talking to a bank, or ??
> 
> Any of you long termers concerned?




not concerned on the adi front, since december adi has been announcing its intention to sell assets. as they have not announced their sale of any asset as yet i am of the opinion that near term considerations are being considered.

my outlook remains long term and these events unfolding are part of a proactive stance being taken over some time now.


----------



## prawn_86

Agentm said:


> not concerned on the adi front, since december adi has been announcing its intention to sell assets. as they have not announced their sale of any asset as yet i am of the opinion that near term considerations are being considered.
> 
> my outlook remains long term and these events unfolding are part of a proactive stance being taken over some time now.




Obviously it cannot have been planned like this, if they have to sell, then they have to sell, but are any holders worried that the price they will get for their assetts/leases are dramatically lower than 18 months ago?


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> Obviously it cannot have been planned like this, if they have to sell, then they have to sell, but are any holders worried that the price they will get for their assetts/leases are dramatically lower than 18 months ago?




who planned for this economic crisis prawn? did rio? did anyone?

cash is king prawn, cash is king.. its no longer possible to raise 10 or 20 mill anymore. so those with the cash can sift through the rubble for he diamonds

who knows what the outcomes are so its speculation to say the prices of assets will be lower than 18 months ago.. dont underestimate the fine assets adi have imho..

imho none of the jvp partners have the options adi have before them, i have not heard adi has changed its plans on selling assets, so i am expecting they may still be taking that course


----------



## blues

prawn_86 said:


> Obviously it cannot have been planned like this, if they have to sell, then they have to sell, but are any holders worried that the price they will get for their assetts/leases are dramatically lower than 18 months ago?




I dont get your point Prawn.That can be said of a lot of stocks. Look at RIO and its attempt to sell assets, OZL and its problems and I wont start on the property trust sector, the Babcocks, AFG...the list could go on for a long time.
All assets and leases are worth a lot less now than 18 months ago. With the benefit of hindsight a lot of companies would have offloaded assets 18 months ago if they new how bad things were going to be.

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> I dont get your point Prawn.That can be said of a lot of stocks. Look at RIO and its attempt to sell assets, OZL and its problems and I wont start on the property trust sector, the Babcocks, AFG...the list could go on for a long time.
> All assets and leases are worth a lot less now than 18 months ago. With the benefit of hindsight a lot of companies would have offloaded assets 18 months ago if they new how bad things were going to be.
> 
> Cheers





OT

as rio paid some 40 billion (is that right?) for the aluminum asset i believe, and they will have to write it down this year, maybe its worth 4 or 8???

imagine if bhp had of taken over rio recently? all bhp and others have to do is watch rio melt down and take their pick in the fire sale.

adi have no debt, so anything it sells is not payiong off anything but is going to be used in exploration. huge difference to other companies with debt..

may be simplistic view perhaps but i think cash is king, and getting cash will be a brilliant thing for adi to see it through imho.


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## prawn_86

blues said:


> I dont get your point Prawn.That can be said of a lot of stocks. Look at RIO and its attempt to sell assets, OZL and its problems and I wont start on the property trust sector, the Babcocks, AFG...the list could go on for a long time.
> All assets and leases are worth a lot less now than 18 months ago. With the benefit of hindsight a lot of companies would have offloaded assets 18 months ago if they new how bad things were going to be.
> 
> Cheers




I agree with you Blues, however ADI (and other specs) are in a more precipitous position, as if they cannot offload, or only sell for a small amount, then they run the risk of going broke, especially if they dont hit any oil that can be recovered


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## solomon

Hi all, I'm still in, but haven't posted for a long time.

Sorry if I missed someone comment on this earlier, but did anyone notice that the gas readings in the current drill are significantly higher than the ones recorded for kowalik? Bodes well, lets hope the equity raising is not a disaster for current shareholders.


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## resourceboom

Precipitous - extremely or impassably steep

nice word prawny, I had to look that one up 

yep. all we can do is wait and see what the reaising is, and hope we dont get shafted too much. as you said much the same as many speccies.

I also agree that cash is king, but am very surprised those companies with great amount of cash is also getting pummelled. I've been accumulating CFE and AEP lately, and hope PPP will be taken over. (sorry for o/t)


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## Agentm

solomon, yes the gas background readings are real high, and the well is flaring which indicates the operator is right in the zone, i have heard they have solved the problems of drilling in the zone (no repeat of kennedy is likely) and having connectivity this early is great news.  the possibility of a good lateral is being indicated very early on here imho 

Resource

OT also

i am in aep also resource, and its been climbing back to where it was before the crash steadily now, at $2 level now.. i liked their announcement yesterday indicating their sp valuation as follows:

"The Net Assets per Share of Allco Equity Partners Limited (ASX: AEP) at 31 December 2008 were $5.69 per share based on asset carrying values at that date (excluding any current financial year contribution from equity accounted
investments). Marking to market the value of listed securities at 31 December 2008, including IBA Health Group Limited, would result in Net Assets per Share of $4.65 per share. "


----------



## gdaf

Interesting how this stock if valued. The cash position has left all but the true believers in the share. Speculative dollars have long since gone (or been wiped out) . Interesting how these things work with the company potentially so close to finally achieving a financial reward with the outcome from current operations - no pump and dumpers, nobody but the patient left. They will either be left holding nothing, or be the true gainers from all this. Will a discovery be reflected in the shares? Probably not for a while. With a long term view (at least until the Western world starts spending again) and reliable flow this could be a nice little reward for the patient. My tip is a discovery at Weston (already showing that they've hit natural fractures and connected to the play), and a cleanout at Kowalik to sure up the potential from the zone that flared (there's condensate down there intially flowing at 300+ bopd with a less than ideal completion). 

The small raising and what they may get for sell down of other assets may seem quite small if that is the case.


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## seasprite

refer http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090123/pdf/31fpp6kg5dwhrm.pdf for latest ann ADI's Share Purchase Plan .


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## Lucky_Country

seasprite said:


> refer http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090123/pdf/31fpp6kg5dwhrm.pdf for latest ann ADI's Share Purchase Plan .





Well I must say 6c a share is bargin basement prices for all that participate in the spp upto $5000.

Now we would all hope that this funding will give us the result from Sugarloaf we have been waiting for and they are obviuosly putting alot of faith into the area which has been the focus of their attention for some time now.

The certainty surrounding funding may now actually be a blessing for the shareprice and give confidence to the market.

They will get my cash and I will be in until they get a definative result one way or the other.


CRACK THE CHALKS !!!!!!!!


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## seasprite

share placement rubs dirt in the faces of those who took up the rights issue at 32c . I imagine a large dumping on monday , could be wrong.


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## Lucky_Country

seasprite said:


> share placement rubs dirt in the faces of those who took up the rights issue at 32c . I imagine a large dumping on monday , could be wrong.




Market closed on Monday !!!

I think the announcement is actually a good thing  for the sp as it gives clarity to the market and stability to the company.

Bargin price imo


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## Agentm

this is not a picture of kuwait post the iraqi withdrawl,

this IS kowalik!!


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## sam76

looks to me that there is some serious unblocking going on over there!

thanks for the pic Agent M!


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## martyfar

Yeah thanks for the pic Agent .....  this is my first post but I have held shares in the sugarloaf joint venture  since mid 2007,   and have been browsing with interest the posts on this forum for the last 6 months .....  may I enquire as to the possible rationale for the smoke coming from Kowalic  ? 

cheers


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## Hatchy

Hi Agentm,
Are you sure that's not Kuwait?

So, 
They've either blown up the drilling rig or have started to get significant flares.

Can't complain either way!

What's your thoughts on the SPP?


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## Agentm

not heard what the operation was..

i cant speculate on it myself, its certainly bellowing heavy black smoke..

this type of activity has been seen a few times, this particular event was noteworthy enough to invoke a picture being taken..

if its flaring then i expect some report on kowalik in the near term. nothing has come from the jvp over the last weeks while this has been seen..

re the ssp..

i just see it as a means to an end, there is cash needed in the short term so the raising may get some interest, price point is amazing really, if you get a free look at the outcome of weston then imho its going to be attractive to some.

lets see what the announcements bring in the near term. i expect lots of interesting news myself


----------



## JOHAUD

Has anyone noticed this article in Oil Barrel mag.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html

 It seems to be posting a positive picture of the future prospects for the area.


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## Agentm

estseon - 27 Jan'09 - 20:21 - 49757 of 49757

The Sugarkane Field was discovered with the Kunde-1 well which started producing in September 2006 and is a unique Austin Chalk formation that lies some 20 km south of the main Texas Austin Chalk trend. In the early stages of appraisal the field is exhibiting many characteristics that are superior to the classic Austin Chalk fields such as the nearby Giddings and Pearsall fields that have produced over 5 tcf of gas and 600 million barrels of oil. Notably, the Sugarkane field is over pressured, has a higher porosity and a higher condensate to gas ratio to the classic Austin Chalk fields.

The Sugarkane Field covers an identified area exceeding 200,000, acres with potential gross reserves estimated at greater than 3 tcf of gas and 700 million barrels of condensate making it potentially one of the largest undeveloped gas and condensate fields within North America.

That said, it would be wrong to walk away with the idea that a company or consortium is going to hit a gusher or huge elephant field which will immediately be company- making. These are “tight” fields which often need special techniques like fracture stimulation or underbalanced drilling to get the gas or condensate up. The work isn’t easy. Operators must drill long horizontal sections through the fractured chalk fields to deliver best production rates, and as evidenced by the recent Kowalik-1H there needs to be not just stimulation but also laborious clean up operations to get the best results.

The point about this kind of operation is that a successful well can yield upwards of 1 million cubic feet of gas. This is more than enough to keep the lights on, as the saying goes in the industry. The name of the game is the number of wells -- drill enough successful wells and you build up a very successful cash flow business. The operation is suitable for small groups as well as mid caps because it is low risk. Some joint venturers have talked of drilling between 60 and 100 wells to spread this risk.

Aussie group Aurora, which holds interests in three separate project (AMI) areas within the Sugarkane Field, including the Sugarloaf Area, with a combined gross land position of 52,189 acres ( 20,561 acres net to Aurora before royalty interests), is the most recent company to give an operations update. Before we move on to that though, it is perhaps important to point out that not only are the fields fractured; so are the holdings in them.

Take Empyrean’s involvement in the Sugarloaf prospect. This is complex and you need to be bright eyed and bushy tailed, with not too much drink taken, easily to follow it. The prospect is divided into Block A and Block B. Empyrean has a 6 per cent interest in Block B, and an extra 12 per cent interest in a series of 16 wells that end up on Block B. A yet- to- be-determined number of these 16 wells will be drilled on Block A and Empyrean has a 7.5 interest in Block A, but it is not clear that this 7.5 interest will be continued after the 16 well series is drilled, even though Empyrean has talked of at least 44 wells on the prospect. Still with me? Good. It gets more convoluted.

Empyrean works with Texas Crude Energy (TCEI) as operator. Last November the operator gave us news of the Kennedy # 1 well on Block B and the Kowalik #2 well on Block A. Here it gets a bit confusing because there was at the time a Kowalik #1H well extant on Block A. So not only are the holdings fractured you have to think in terms of different wells for different zones maybe, and zones running across the blocks.

Cutting through the zones and revenue holdings, the situation looks like this: Empyrean and its partners had two successful wells on Sugarloaf A-1 and A-3 . A-3 last April saw the company’s shares surge 90 per cent because the TCEI JV Block A-3 well flowed at 1.9 million cubic feet of gas a day and over 460 barrels of condensate a day. At 6000 cubic feet to a barrel of oil this means over 4 million cubic feet a day, about 4.3 million cubic feet a day in fact.

The Kennedy #1H well on B flowed at 200,000 cubic feet a day and 60 barrels of condensate giving 560,000 cubic feet in all. In November 2008 TCEI advised the Kowalik 1H well produced over a 24 hour period 937,000 cubic feet of gas, 321 barrels of oil and 14 barrels of water , namely some 1.8 million cubic feet of gas equivalent a day. This would mean a total of 6.6 million cubic feet a day of gas equivalent; a substantial volume which could easily be tied into the local infrastructure and presumably be quickly monestised. Of course not all of this would be net to Empyrean.

When those of us interested in trying to work out what it all meant broker Blue Oar came galloping to the rescue, with some back-of -the envelope calculations. Blue Oar reckoned that on the data available last November the recoverable amount of hydrocarbons net to Empyrean from Sugarloaf was 32 billion cfe.

Assume a ten year life of the field ( this may not be correct) and divide by the number of days in a year and you get output in the region of 8 million cfe/d, assuming Empyrean continued to have drilling success, and worked the field for all it was worth.. These are crude figures but add in some more guesstimates and assume a price of US$ 10 per 1000 cubic feet for the gas at that time, the cash flow began to look very appealing for a small company; something like US$ 80,000 a day or over US$2.4 million a month give or take.

So we come to Aurora. With its three separate project (AMI) areas within the Sugarloaf Field, there is a 50 per cent stake in the Longhorn Area, a 80 per cent interest in the Ipanema Area and the 20 per cent holding in Sugarloaf. There have been nine exploration and appraisal wells drilled into the targeted Austin Chalk formation since discovery. Three of these wells are within Aurora’s area of interest and six wells have been drilled in an area adjacent to Aurora’s. There are more wells underway. We know what the three wells in Aurora’s areas have done, for it is they, the Kennedy #1H, the Sugarloaf #1 well and the Kowalik #1H well.

We now have a report on a new well the Weston #1H well. Its partners here include Eureka Energy with 12.5 per cent and Adelphi Energy with 20 per cent. Aurora says it has been advised by the operator TCEI that as of January 20 the well had reached a depth of 14,978 ft. Gas readings increased since entering the chalk with a maximum daily average reading of 3100 gas units. Minor flares have been observed. To put t in perspective this gas unit reading was in excess at that shown in the Kennedy #1 well. So Aurora looks as if it is on the way to another successful well. All in all it seems as if it is in for a 20 per cent stake in 3 to 4 million cubic feet of gas equivalent a day. It is some way behind Empyrean, but, it too, plans dozens of wells. It too should be able to build a substantial cash cow business even if gas prices are not quite what they were.


----------



## blues

Slow progress this week according to weekly update and disappointing no update on what is happening at Kowalik after Agentm's picture. They will need to get moving as I would assume shareholder's will want to know the result at Weston before handing over more cash in a SPP. I defintely do.

Cheers.


----------



## maverick11

Thanks for the photo Agentm.

I wonder what the EPA think about that 

Looks like they are burning out the wax encrusting the inside of the well.  Hope they get plans in action soon and can clear the fractures.  I want to see at least 4-5 mcfepd


----------



## estseon

CoP recently fracture stimulated 1,800 ft of Kunde 3 and reported flows of about 23 boepd / 100 ft.

EKA raised new capital and made specific reference to completions of both Kowalik and Weston.

Although TCEI has not reported any large flares whilst drilling Weston (intersecting natural fracturing) it has reported high levels of saturation in the rock. It was similar in the case of Kowalik.

It could be that the JVPs are expecting to fracture stimulate part of both wells.

If CoP's Kunde 3 success is replicated, that would suggest flows of about 700 boepd + whatever the bottom 1500 ft in the fractures flows for Kowalik.

Similarly, for Weston, except we do not yet know how much of it will intersect natural fracture swarms.

The point is that the initial flows from the unstimulated wells might not be the end of the story by any means.


----------



## jestex12

I am new to the sight but was interested in the information being posted.  My family has 164 acreas on the border of Dewitt County and Karnes county.  My family has been contacted regarding leasing the land and have been offered $250 per acre.  Does anyone know the going rate per acre and does any have any information regarding this area as a potential hot-bed for new exploration.  

P.S.-specifically the land is 5 miles southwest of Nordheim, TX in the J. Taylor A-462 & Alderete A-52 survey's.


----------



## Agentm

jestex

if you PM me (private mail) i can help you out a little, i am familiar with your region and the type of drilling that is taking place there.


----------



## estseon

Sorry, jestex, don't know land lease rate but royalty rate seems to be about 29% and they are talking 10 years + for a well. Not much data on flows because they are still drilling experimental wells but rates per day of 25 boe/100ft for artificial fractures and 35 boe/100ft for natural fractures are indicated at the present. Say 50:50 for a well with a single 6,000ft lateral (Meridian in East Texas are drilling dual laterals), that's 1,800 boe per day. Even at $60 (from next year, say) that would earn you $30k per day. That would make the lease rent somewhat less relevant.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> Sorry, jestex, don't know land lease rate but royalty rate seems to be about 29% and they are talking 10 years + for a well. Not much data on flows because they are still drilling experimental wells but rates per day of 25 boe/100ft for artificial fractures and 35 boe/100ft for natural fractures are indicated at the present. Say 50:50 for a well with a single 6,000ft lateral (Meridian in East Texas are drilling dual laterals), that's 1,800 boe per day. Even at $60 (from next year, say) that would earn you $30k per day. That would make the lease rent somewhat less relevant.




estseon

i have yet to see any chalks wells that far south in dewitt, imho the only activity has been on two other types of rock in that region, i would need to take a closer look.. i see various players taking a keen interest in the land south of the fault, even in live oak and in bee, but as yet i am not sure if the chalks/eagleford play goes too far south of the faulting there.

jestex, what side of the fault are you on?


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

I just sent you a pm.  I tried to send you some attachments but I noticed when sending a pm the attachments icon is disabled but one can send attachments when sending a basic reply.  Not sure what I'm doing wrong.


----------



## Agentm

jestex12 said:


> Agentm,
> 
> I just sent you a pm.  I tried to send you some attachments but I noticed when sending a pm the attachments icon is disabled but one can send attachments when sending a basic reply.  Not sure what I'm doing wrong.




its ok, i got the pm.. the pm doesnt allow attachments unfortunately, but i have got email  also if you like..

i think the new pioneer wells testing the eagleford are just north of your leases, its interesting that your land is being looked at, and the prices offered are reasonable. is it 36 or 60 month? i am not sure of how far south of the faults the play goes, pioneer has discussed the acreages there and says its eagleford and chalks play are only in some part of their acreages, so i assumed it followed along north of the fault not south of it, but thats not to say it isnt there in your region, i have seen heavy leasing activity in bee county and live oak way south of the fault even by TCEI.

the apache gas unit 1 near you is interesting, very deep and lots of condensate there with that characteristic high gravity that we see around the place.. its saying its WENDLING (WILCOX 11200) and magnum is running the show there, do you know it?


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Here is a detailed map of the area with fault lines in black.  My families land is located in where I've made a red circle in the middle of the map.  The company exploring in the area is Winn Exploration.  Lease is for 36 months.  What seems a little suspect about the negotiations when inquiring as to why they wanted to lease they(rep. from Winn) stated "our intentions are to set up a well adjacent to landowners next to our land and pull land owners together.  But, if they didn't need our land why are they pooling?  They are offering also 1/5 royalties.  Some additional tid-bit information some blue and white helicopters where hovering around the land about a week ago all day and last Tuesday late at night.


----------



## Agentm

the region you are in has aa lot of wilcox and warmsley and christmas wells all about 15000.. the pioneer wells are about 17000 feet..

i think winn are keen on the region as the leasing tells me that, and where you are between the faults is obviously prospective .. there has been some horizontal wells drilled from time to time by winn,, so maybe thats why they want to pool?

i will post a map of the region but it looks like the purple fault on your map is the edwards fault that pioneer are tracking across the many counties and extends to polk county and beyond.


----------



## Dink

Lol... down 50% yesterday and not a single comment... obviously everyone who has said anything negative about this stock in the past gets shouted down and is now too scared or indifferent to say anything. I think this one is a dud guys... I have lost plenty and I don't think I will ever see that money again...


----------



## prawn_86

I am/was one of those negative posters, and I maintain my convictions. The drilling is proving far more difficult than originally thought, and its been "about to happen" for years now. And ADI is also in the unfortunate position of being a small party so they are being squeezed by the bigger partners.


----------



## resourceboom

Whilst being a very prospective set of leases, that they are paying big money for, the drilling results have been extremely poor so far, and they have had much difficulties with the geology.

Of course imo this is still a speccy share, so I wouldn't invest any money you can't afford to lose. Happy to hear positives and negatives!


----------



## subi1

prawn_86 said:


> I am/was one of those negative posters, and I maintain my convictions. The drilling is proving far more difficult than originally thought, and its been "about to happen" for years now. And ADI is also in the unfortunate position of being a small party so they are being squeezed by the bigger partners.




I am pretty sure the credit crisis hasn't  helped much either. There are many companies in need of cash at the moment. ADI certainly isn't an orphan in things going slow and then money drying up. I would also imagine that the current oil price isn't helping small oil and gas companies worldwide. If things go right at least the drilling costs may be cheaper.


----------



## Hatchy

Aren't we just seeing 6c because of the share issue? Doesn't that make sense to other people? 
I expected to see 6c, people want to flog off what they've got and can replace at a later date. 
I'm not happy that TCEI seem to be stuffing another hole up though. I can't imagine why they haven't learnt. 

I've thought for some time that they're trying to screw the little aussie companies, and that's becomming true - they're using our money to figure out how to drill. 

I reckon we'll sell Yemen and whoever picks it up will be sitting on a goldmine 5 years down the track.


----------



## Agentm

Dink said:


> Lol... down 50% yesterday and not a single comment... obviously everyone who has said anything negative about this stock in the past gets shouted down and is now too scared or indifferent to say anything. I think this one is a dud guys... I have lost plenty and I don't think I will ever see that money again...




dink, i think the sp was always going to meet the ssp price..  if its a dud on based on the sp following the trend all stocks follow in this circumstance, which is your view, then so be it, nice to hear it and i have no problem with your view, other than i dont agree with it. but not shouting you down, the shouting down has come in the past from people negative on the stock in a directly personal way towards anyone who discussed the operation ADi and the jvp undertook..

the only comment i have on the massive exit that occurred, is its very odd that people on HC knew of the drill string issue prior to the announcement,  and obviously there were other who also knew.. from no trades at all to a massive exit in one moment.. very odd.. but well done to the buyer who is obviously not seeing the same picture you paint dink.. i think you would agree that we all wish the investor the best and all want investors to do well?  



prawn_86 said:


> I am/was one of those negative posters, and I maintain my convictions. The drilling is proving far more difficult than originally thought, and its been "about to happen" for years now. And ADI is also in the unfortunate position of being a small party so they are being squeezed by the bigger partners.




prawn, the delays in the beginning were always explained, leasing 350,000 acres of land is no small undertaking, the first well was drilling for the hosston sands at 21000 feet, when the chalks were as active in our well as it was 6 miles west, it would have been irresponsible to disregard the discovery and not act on it, so the jvp did act on the discovery and lease acreages.. your simplistic view that the events always seem to reflect the "about to happen" scenario is somewhat tiresome, every holder is aware of the delays, and the biggest hurdle, the ability to successfully frac a well at 12000 feet down and up to a mile horizontal against this massively overpressurised and extremely hot formation,  has finally been solved by the conocophillips operations in kunde 3. which replicates the staggering results of the vertical frac in kunde 1 discovery well.  so no more expensive underbalanced drilling is needed.. there are options now to make wells cheaper and less complicated and get similar results. things are moving forward prawn, your just dont seem to acknowledge it.. 

i know you dont get it, but these rocks can be fracced and produce of the fracture stimulation, no other tight chalk rock has been able to do this in texas. the economics are practically there.. it didnt take 14 years like it did in the barnett shale, this has taken about 4- 5 years

as for them being squeezed out by bigger parties? thats exactly what they are planning on!! bring it on i say!!



resourceboom said:


> Whilst being a very prospective set of leases, that they are paying big money for, the drilling results have been extremely poor so far, and they have had much difficulties with the geology.
> 
> Of course imo this is still a speccy share, so I wouldn't invest any money you can't afford to lose. Happy to hear positives and negatives!




agreed



subi1 said:


> I am pretty sure the credit crisis hasn't  helped much either. There are many companies in need of cash at the moment. ADI certainly isn't an orphan in things going slow and then money drying up. I would also imagine that the current oil price isn't helping small oil and gas companies worldwide. If things go right at least the drilling costs may be cheaper.




correct.. drilling costs are already 40% lower, and the thought of now moving away from underbalanced to fast wells with fracture stimulation is going to be very attractive to the jvp imho


my view is that while oil is low and the $US remains the safe haven currency it miraculously is today, then the economics is still a tough out of reach, but well costs have come back 40% which is about what the AUS$ has devalued against the greenback, and imho the modeling  done on this must be looking better when/if oil may makes its recovery, and who know how long the $US will be the safest place to put your cash.

tough to see the sp fall away but imho totally expected in light of the cap raising price..


----------



## Gspot

Gspot said:


> I don't like hearing your 'negative views' prawn, but your right. Been going for years now and still just around the corner. No offence to Agent M and his info but........
> I posted a while back, that the yanks could delay results, as to hurt the little jvp's, and this still seems likely.
> Not being racist, *but I don't trust Americans*.




This is more evident today than anytime before. Don't trust Americans when money is involved. 
This one is starting to hurt, and yet I'm contemplating throwing in another $5k.


----------



## Agentm

from pioneers recent presentation

http://library.corporate-ir.net/lib...E0DF3B32D8_PXD_CreditSuisseEnergyConf2509.pdf

 Well costs
– Continuing to work with service companies to reduce drilling and completion
costs (using only PXD equipment where possible)
• Achieved 15% - 20% reduction in costs by year-end ’08
• Targeting an additional 10% - 20% reduction

 Will increase drilling activity when we have confidence in sustained
commodity prices above $60 oil / $6 gas, coupled with additional well cost
reductions from current levels

Decreased Drilling Activity
– 29 rigs to 9 rigs during Q4
– 3 rigs by mid-February




sounds familair.. there will be not a great deal of drilling on a lot of onshore unconventional and a great deal of offshore fields whist the oil remains where it is.  imho it cannot last. with oil rigs stacked up all over texas and companies scaling back dramatically, surely there will be a day of reckoning.


----------



## Agentm

estseon

1/ kowalik would either face an acid wash/frac or they can cement the entire well casing and frac the entire well.

2/the fishing out of the drill string is expensive and complex but not out the reach of technology available today. its done a lot and its a standard operation generally, there are crews extremely experienced in this type of operation. my concern is the well costs right now there.


this from saf..

Safiande - 6 Feb'09 - 10:09 - 50258 of 50307

Pioneer expecting “ tremendous results “ from Eagle Ford well 3000ft lateral.
Well drilled in DeWitt next to Karnes. Expected to be fracced in late March / early Apr.

Pioneer 4th qtr earnings 4 Feb 2009 Transcript
Scott D. Sheffield - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

“In addition in the same area, and where we feel like as a sweet spot, very comparable to Petrohawk's recent two discoveries. In regard to the Eagle Ford Shale we completed our 3,000 foot lateral. We did call it, we're analyzing it and we will frac that well next month in March, expecting tremendous results from this well in the Eagle Ford Shale play.”




“The Eagle Ford Shale, of course is shown on slide 18, is an important growth area, in a sense that we have about 310,000 acres under lease, it just happens to coincide with the Edwards Trend acreage as shown on yellow on slide 18. We even have acreage, it's very close to juxtapose to the Petrohawk recent discoveries. In fact, in a couple of cases we've got 15,000 acres juxtaposed about a mile away from the more Southwest of the Petrohawk wells. And, we've got about 6,000 gross acres about 8 miles away from where the next completion is expected. So we'll probably be pursuing some drilling in these areas looking ahead.
Notwithstanding that we would believe, that our acreage in general will have equal prospectivity to some of the results you're seeing with Petrohawk, and we'll be pursuing that looking ahead. And we have as Scott has already mentioned, one well, we drill a 3,000 foot lateral along. But right in the midst right now, as we're evaluating the core and these objective being properly design the frac for this well which is anticipated at the end of March or into early April. But this is something looking ahead that has substantial resource potential, and we think can really grow our South Texas operations.”

“Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs
Wanted to check in on backlog on both the oil and the gas side if you look to lower 48 onshore, how much production do you have behind pipe or are waiting completion?
Scott Sheffield
Yes, I'm surprised by the comments that I have seen a lot of people are doing that. Most leases in the U.S., most royalty owners do not allow you to unless it's on a held by production lease. So we have zero, very little and so the articles that I have seen in new releases you can not drill a well and leave it shut in, you'll loose your lease. And so its got be on held by production leases that people are doing at. So I don't understand the companies that are doing that you really have to ask them.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs
Okay. And I guess the flipside is when you do start drilling again if commodity prices improve would you expect an immediate production ramp or is there some delay that one should expect?
Scott Sheffield
It will be a lag period of about at least three months. Obviously, in South Texas with the top of the wells that we make 8 million to 10 million a day, you'll see a big ramp up there. In Spraberry, it will be a slower ramp because the type of well. Raton will be a slower ramp so it varies by area.
Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs
Okay. And then lastly, on the Pierre, Eagle Ford and Edwards, what gas price would you need to see to get more aggressive in drilling is that the $6 or there different numbers for those three basins?
Scott Sheffield
I'm going to say $6 with the appropriate well cost that we see are coming done. We will definitely get more aggressive”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118...urces-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=2


----------



## Agentm

further research from saf

not sure on the answers estseon, as tcei is a partner with conoco on those wells, and tcei would view the entire play they have leased as a major project, i think most investors only have the narrow view on the 23,000 acres we are jvp in and not understand that the tcei/conoco operations are part and parcel of the big picture. anything TCEI learns will be utilised in the development of our acraeges.

saf again has been researching well, this is well worth looking into..

Safiande - 9 Feb'09 - 12:08 - 50327 of 50347

More encouraging noises on Eagleford, this time from Anadarko (APC)

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Feb 3 , 2009


“John [Wagazino] - Wachovia
Same thing on the Eagleford, I’m curious if you’d just give a little bit more color on expected IP, well costs, that kind of thing.

Robert P. Daniels
On Eagleford, the Maverick [pason] we’re in a deal with TXEO right now where they’re operating the wells. It’s a drilled earn type of thing and they’re in Phase 2 of that program. We like what we’re seeing down there but we’re really early in that one. It’s got a lot of work to do both on what the costs are going to ultimately get down to and what the rates are going to be. We haven’t gotten off a full frac yet on any of our horizontals that we think would be like a production stage frac but we do see very good encouragement in gas and actually liquid rates coming out of there and we’re going to be spending more money in the maverick to try to learn what we need to learn to see how economic it’s going to be but so far so good down there.”




“Raymond Deacon - Pritchard Capital
I guess just curious as far as your deepwater needs, you talked about needing price concessions. Is there... I guess how many rigs do you see yourself looking into? My impression was you had a lot of long term contracts and so there wouldn’t be much ability to cut your costs in ’09.

Karl F. Kurz
Right now we’re excited about our program. As we mentioned during the call, everything we are doing in ’09 we think is value accretive. We’ve looked at everything. We’re moving some stuff around to make sure we drill the core areas on our portfolio both onshore and offshore is very competitive. We have new projects like the Marcellus and Haynesville and Maverick. They’re competing aggressively for capital. Very excited. Our desire is to widen our margins and make these projects even more competitive and more value accretive by getting costs down. I don’t want to leave you under the impression that we have to get our costs down to make our projects work. As Jim mentioned in our big projects work at current cost with $30 oil. So we’re working the cost side just to create more value but not to make our projects economical”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/118...8-earnings-call-transcript?source=bnet&page=7

http://library.corporate-ir.net/lib...01F0-4B70-8DEB-46DBCE52BB01_APC_2.3.09_v2.pdf




APC partner is TXCO. From their web site:-

http://www.txco.com/operationscube.html







Safiande - 9 Feb'09 - 14:10 - 50329 of 50347

Interesting comment about ConocoPhilips moving into Eagle Ford & the associated number of rigs from Meridian in their conference call transcript on cost cutting measures released as a 8k SEC filing to AMEX today on their site i.e. COP originally planned a 10 rig Eagle Ford programme (Cote DÃ³r)in 2009 which indicates the prospectivity of the formation, but which now might be reduced to 6 rigs because of the economic crisis etc. COP ´s CAPEX for 2009 is due to be issued on 11 Mar 2009.

"Gary Dohner - Financial Management International - Analyst

Okay. You also made mention in that same announcement about relevant acreage positions in South Central that is on the trend with the new Eagle Ford shale discoveries. What is the size, the potential of the field, drilling depths and cost, and how important is this play and when do you plan to begin exploration and development? And if partners are not found to defray the cost, is it possible to fund the initial exploration well ourselves given the new budget?
Also, what is the status with the Archtop play and possible partners as I believe the lease is coming up for renewal and the cost of
drilling, as well as the technical expertise required, are rather substantial in both


Paul Ching - Meridian Resource - Chairman & interim CEO

On the Eagle Ford shale, we are in a position that we have -- what is it 12,000 --? (multiple speakers) 30,000-some acres if I remember right, 30,000 acres on trend with the Petrohawk well. Petrohawk has made a well in Eagle Ford. They came on. I don't remember the numbers -- and what we're doing is we're watching. We are not going to go out and drill the well. We're going to see what they do. We're going to see whether they start to develop the area around there if they drill some more wells, and we are also going to see what the production curve of that particular well or any other wells they drill is to see what the type curve is. So if it comes in real high rate, 12 months later what is this, we can get an idea what the type curve is so we can get an idea what we might have on our lease.

Gary Dohner - Financial Management International - Analyst

So you are going to let them do the experimentation and the exploration and then learn from that to conserve the capital in the interim and not necessarily look for partners to defray the cost and jump in at this time?

Paul Ching - Meridian Resource - Chairman & interim CEO

We are looking for partners. We're looking for partners out there with this acreage, and most of the partners have somewhat of the same idea. They are kind of waiting to see what happens with the Petrohawk discovery and what Petrohawk does.
Also, remind me guys, Conoco Philips? Conoco Philips has acreage, and Conoco Philips had said they were going to move in, and they were going to have a 10 rig program is what we heard, and now we are hearing that it is a six rig program, and that may even be optimistic. So there is plenty of activity going on around us, and what I want to do is learn."

http://b2i.api.edgar-online.com/EFX...ConvPDF1?SessionID=LuDIWSxXa9tANR9&ID=6389031


http://www.b2i.us/profiles/investor/secxml.asp?f=1&BzID=1440&to=sc&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=0


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Thanks for the last two post's.  Very informative and snapshot of the area getting attention.


----------



## Drubula

Well I have been monitoring this stock for a while and decided over the past two weeks to buy in.

AgentM I compliment you on your reporting.

Goodluck to LT holders and the newies like me.


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## jestex12

Here's some interesting readings


Pgs':  1, 7, 9, 26, & 40

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2008/08100harris43/images/harris43.pdf

and:

http://www.energyindustryphotos.com/eagle_ford_shale__formation_of_s.htm


----------



## Agentm

jestex..

i really  liked the edwards study, i think its worth a read myself.

the 2 conoco wells continue to be drilled side by side in live oak

hope you do well drubula, all LT holders i think are well and truly over the time things have taken. i hope we can see some sort of turnaround soon.


----------



## Agentm

i recommend anyone with long term views on the project listen to the feb 17 presentation by txco

http://www.txco.com/presentation.html


anadarko is doing a jvp farm in with them, and runs the show on their recent eagleford well, they put in a 10 stage frac on that well and will not disclose their results. (reminds me of conoco and the kunde 3 well!)

they did get some results from 5 stage fracs in the eagleford open hole, they were all short completions, 2500 feet.. but i get the impression this last well was designed differently in their engineering of the frac, with a 10 stage multifrac, but i got the impression they did the last well with a cemented liner.

all operators including petrohawk have had their problems with the overpressurised shale, and all operators say they are finding better solutions after each completion.

you have to keep in account that TCEI is headed up by mr fluor, he sits on the board of anadarko, they have extensive exposure to the eagleford shale and chalks play that trends throughout this very active region across texas

TCEI is also in a jvp with conocophillips who are equally interested in this play.. both anadarko and conocophillips are the type of players that can take on a project this size, and both are doing extensive work on these eagleford and chalks regions..

time to track down and study this last completion of TXCO/anadarko well..


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Nice post.  I'm pretty sure you've seen Weber Energy's information on there on going exploration in South Texas.  

The 7th slide is the one that grab's my attention.

http://weberenergy.com/TxOilGas/Tx-Oil-Gas-3.html


----------



## Agentm

it bodes well for your region imho jestex, de witt looks good as far as pioneer is concerned and petrohawk are doing their thing in lavaca next door to you..

winn is in you region jestex, but a very small player.. 

imho once pioneer gets their wells finished in de witt you will see some interest down your way.

crude is $35, so most people in the world are really happy about it,, here in australia we have to use the tapas prices set in singapore, so we have $50 plus prices to contend with, even in the economic crisis we still cant get any relief at the petrol pump!


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Price of gas is up here in the states also but not as much as it is in Australia.  The economy seems to be in limbo.  Just took a look at the UK and Asian markets which are reflecting our dismal day.  Unfortunately the greed of the past is catching up.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well todays announcement was quite a good one.

They have successfully finished Weston and is now waiting to be fraced as is Kowalik and Kennedy.

Also clearly spelled out which zones each well is in stating the natural fractures.

Playing the waiting games for a while now but they have suprised in the past.


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Weber Energy submitted a W-1 today in Dewitt County take a look. 

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...PublicQuery=Y&name=KRAUSE&univDocNo=485486156


----------



## Agentm

jestex..  i saw that the other day.. its location is next to the conocophillips well called hooks. weber took over as operator for geosouthern, and has a kuwaiti oil company as a jvp partner.. great farm in.. becoming more convinced your region may be in consideration one day..


figures for kunde 3 and the baker wells from saf..

















interesting that blackbrush is also chasing the play.. they have extensive acrages in karnes county also with plenty of edwards wells and a few chalks wells in the hotshots play.

Blackbrush To Drill Eagleford Horizontal Well In Lasalle County, Texas
BlackBrush Oil & Gas, LP has signed an agreement with its partners to drill an Eagleford horizontal well on the South Texas Syndicate Ranch of LaSalle County.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PRLog (Press Release) – Jan 28, 2009 – BlackBrush Oil & Gas, LP has signed an agreement with its partners to drill an Eagleford horizontal well on the South Texas Syndicate Ranch of LaSalle County.  BlackBrush, with its partner, shot approximately 34 square miles of high quality 3D seismic data this past summer which has delineated prospects in the Lower Wilcox, Olmos Sands, Eagleford Shale, Edwards Limestone, Pearsall Shale, Sligo and Cotton Valley formations.  
The third party operator will spud the Eagleford test before May of 2009.  
This block of acreage is approximately 9,416 contiguous acres on the South Texas Syndicate Ranch and is a direct offset to the Petrohawk South Texas Syndicate #241-H, which was placed on production in October 2008 at a rate of 9.1 million cubic feet of gas per day from the Eagleford at a true vertical depth of 11,300 feet.  
Petrohawk has reportedly drilled another successful offset well to the east of this acreage, the Donnell #1 in McMullen County and a third well 15 miles west southwest of the #241-H, the Dora Martin #1


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Just read your post.  Seems like the Aref discovery is starting to play out.  Interesting to see what happens in the next year or so.  Oh, I will be in the Nordheim/Kennedy region April 8 - April 13 visiting family and relatives.  If I have time I'll take some pictures of the area.


----------



## Agentm

the pioneeer well johnson 1h near you is in the chalks, it was drilled in 2006 and completed in 2007/2008... that well is not producing at the moment, just a completion.. and they had only about 2000 feet of well to use, its completion report didnt set the world on fire for pioneer, and i have not too much more detail on it.. they then drilled a well next to it a few miles and tested the eagleford.. and that well is doing very well.. 

pioneer doesnt discuss the austin chalks much other than to say its also a very extensive resource, and pioneer is looking at the oil in thew eagleford and has cracked it in de witt north of you and is doing more with it in lavaca..

we have 3 completions ready to be tested, a wait for the jvp to get their teeth into it and decide on the best fracs.. so far the wells have been unable to flow on their own at commercial rates (except for that kunde 1!!)

The Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford Shale are Upper Cretaceous deposits that extend across Texas from the northeast to southwest. These formations contain organic carbon enriched mudstones and chalks that were deposited during transgressions of the Cretaceous epeiric sea in North America. Recent workers in petroleum geochemistry have demonstrated that these organic enriched rocks possessed attributes common to oil source rocks. The present study of these Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford Shale rocks is from the perspective of organic petrology, and it augments the earlier geochemical work that documented source variability within units of these formations. As with the earlier work, the results of this study show that both formations contain intervals that are, when mature, capable of generating commercial quantities of liquid hydrocarbons. However, this work further revealed that Eagle Ford rocks not only exhibit greater organic carbon contents, but also have greater quantities of oil-prone kerogen (fluorescent amorphinite and exinite) when compared with rocks from the Austin Chalk. These source rock differences relate to levels or degrees of organic preservation. Dysaerobic to oxic depositional settings seem to be more characteristic of the Austin Chalk than of the Eagle Ford Shale. Such oxic environments do not consistently favor the preservation of organic matter. Usually, well-preserved kerogen forms under more anoxic conditions, such as those that occurred during deposition of some Eagle Ford units. These anoxic conditions suggest that the geographically more extensive Eagle Ford Shale is a more important source for oil than is the Austin Chalk.


----------



## jestex12

Well put Agentm!!  Through research and observation of pioneer, weber, txco, etc. I get the same impression that the eagle ford is the rock source for great mineral reserves.  The way these players are following the others leads only to believe that they all know how naturally rich this area is.


----------



## Agentm

after 3 untested wells we have the market giving no value to the play in adi, plenty in aut and eka without cash is somehow practically in parity..

strange days indeed.. 

if tcei can offer some viable and effective frac design on the 3 wells then commercial flow may be attained..  

never been riskier an investment in this share than right now, and many are prepared to pay very little for the chance..  high risk reward stocks are not on anyones buy list at all..

its down to the operator and jvp to find a frac solution here.. and we all hope there is one out there that these guys correctly select.

pioneer got in right in the eagleford in dewitt,, we know petrohawk  have it nailed, and we understand from txco their jvp operator anadarko has found some solution they are excited about..

obviously conoco has yet to get it right in kunde 3 and the bakers look dismal dont they..

adi is about to sell a yemen asset and may raise some cash and be able to bunker down for the time being, not sure the other jvps have the same luxury.. find the sp differences between partners difficult to read really.. but some must be happy imho..

good luck to all holders.. its up to the results on the 3 untested wells now..


----------



## Agentm

"obviously conoco has yet to get it right in kunde 3 and the bakers look dismal dont they.."

the flow rates look dismal if indeed they are assumed to be a full months flow.. 

on the other hand if the wells are on test and not on and long term production then higher rates may be a possibility..


----------



## queenstown

So did any of you sign up for the SPP? I have my cheque in hand stil undecided. Averaging down seems the logical thing to do but struggling with a clear understanding of the furture direction with this one.


----------



## Agentm

glad to  see someone has some cash on hand..

i hear conoco is putting through a second pipeline in live oak at the moment, this new one is an 8inch pipeline.

pretty sure one of two rigs that conoco just drilled has been released, and also hearing bordovsky well near by in karnes county, is getting a lateral drilled anytime soon.

plenty of activity at the baker 2 well.  which can been seen in the recent rrc releases..


----------



## queenstown

Agentm, to be honest I was hoping on a announcement regarding the sale of some/all of Yemen before I committed. In my mind that would have strengthend the SP at 6 cents leaving little doubt the SP would dive further resulting in better value proposition.

I would be very interested to hear from other existing investors on their thoughts on the SPP.


----------



## Lucky_Country

SPP seems to be a fair deal for all concerned.

ADI need the cash, it gives existing shareholders a chance to average down and support their initial investment in the same move.

Prices at the momment are a great dissappointment to all and this saga has gone on longer than I personally anticipated or like.

One must think the next 12 months all will be known on the currewnt wells with fraccing and acid washing to increase flow.

Risk reward seems a good value proposition atm.


----------



## queenstown

It seems Yemen is heating up....

Yemen woos heavyweights

Yemen has received investment offers from major oil players including US-based ExxonMobil and France’s Total, Oil Minister Amir al-Aidarous said in remarks this weekend. 

Yemen's Ministry for Oil and Mineral Resources has received eight oil investment bids from international companies, pan-Arab daily al-Hayat quoted Aidarous as saying, four of which were from oil groups seeking direct negotiations with Yemen. 

The companies include ExxonMobil, Total, and Uk supermajor BP, the minister said, but did not elaborate on the nature of the investments, a Reuters report said. 

Other companies that made bids included Austrian oil and gas group OMV, Canada’s Nexen, and Us independent Occidental, he said. 

Aidarous said Yemen, as part of measures to encourage investments in its oil industry, would raise the state's share in production costs. The higher revenue from the increased government participation would offset the decline in oil prices, he said. 

Yemen exports about 200,000 barrels of oil per day.


----------



## Agentm

24 February 2009 
Empyrean Energy PLC 
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME)) 
Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block A, Texas USA 




  *  Block A-3 *(baker 1)* and A-4 *(baker 2)* wells placed on production to sales 

  *  Combined flow rates from both wells averaged 5.8 million cubic feet of gas per  day and 680 barrels of condensate per day for the seven days up to 21st February 


Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in 
Germany and the USA, is pleased to provide the following update on operations on Block A which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field: 


TCEI JV Block A-3 Well *(baker 1)*


Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI") that the TCEI JV Block A-3 *(baker 1)* well commenced flowing to sales on the 14th February *after having a water and surfactant flush treatment*. 


The well achieved average flow rates for the seven days up to and including 21st February, 2009 of *1.7 million cubic feet of gas per day and 280 barrels of condensate per day*. 


TCEI JV Block A-4 Well *(baker 2)*


TCEI also advised that the TCEI JV Block A-4 *(baker 2)* well commenced flowing to sales on the 14th February* after having an acid fracture stimulation performe*d. 


The well achieved average flow rates for the seven days up to and including 21st February, 2009 of *4.1 million cubic feet of gas per day and 400 barrels of condensate per day*. 


Empyrean has a working interest of 7.5% in both of these wells. 


Commenting today Empyrean director Tom Kelly said: "Empyrean is very pleased that these wells have now had production facilities completed and have been connected to the sales pipeline. We now have production from all three horizontal wells on Block A, with two vertical wells undergoing further 
testing." 


the two wells, baker 1 and 2 sit side by side and we can clearly see the two different completions have delivered 2 distinct results.

what TCEI/conoco have shown in their completions is that a "water and surfactant flush treatment" on 2800 feet of lateral has resulted in a flow of *1.7 million cubic feet of gas per day and 280 barrels of condensate per day.*  this is a very similar result to the kowalik well, where a flush out has not brought any staggering flow rates.

then we see that TCEI/conoco did a different completion on the baker 1 well, i believe its length is only about 1200 feet going by an earlier report by eme. but in baker 2 they completed the well in a different fashion, they did a an "acid fracture stimulation"

now that small lateral of 1200 feet with that acid frac really brought a very different result to the water and surfactant flush treatment,  in terms of flow they announced the rate of *4.1 million cubic feet of gas per day and 400 barrels of condensate per day.*. resulting in a much higher gas ratio and lower condensate ratio.

indeed a very interesting announcement. and will give the TCEI operator and the jvp on our acreages a lot of things to contemplate in the way they approach all three laterals..


----------



## estseon

It should be remembered that Baker 1 was never completed.

From the EME 2008 accounts:

Workover operations commenced on 29 January 2008. The operator was forced to leave in the open hole a fish made up of a length of 2 7/8” tubing and a 5 7/8” rock bit. It is permanently lodged in the horizontal part of the open hole in the interval 12,676 ft to 13,097 ft.

The drilling and initial flows of Baker 1:

During the horizontal drilling operation, three sidetracks were made to precisely target high permeability pay zones. The third and final sidetrack spanned 13,230 to 15,100 ft. Significant shows and flares were recorded
while drilling the entire 2,800 ft of open hole. The well continually tried to flow despite the high mud weights being used. This persuaded the operator to stop drilling at 15,100 ft, short of the original 17,800 ft, and attempt a natural open hole test. A plug was set at the base of the 7” casing and the rig released and replaced by a smaller and less expensive workover rig.

On 14 April 2008, Empyrean was finally able to announce the initial test results of a significant gas/condensate discovery. Initial flows through a 12/64” choke were measured at 1.9mmcfgpd with 460 barrels of condensate per day. Based on present day prices for gas and condensate this would be equivalent to 6.6 mmcfepd.

It sounds as though it might have been a bit of a monster had they not blocked it with drilling gear.

There is a reason why the Baker 1 result might not be representative of what might be obtained.


----------



## Agentm

estseon,, i know both baker 1 and baker 2 hit some pretty rough terrain, and during baker 1 they had a massive flare one evening that brought people from their beds and to the well as they thought the well was on fire, the flare was deafening and reported to be higher than the rig itself and there were other issues on the rig itself that caused grave concerns i believe, the baker 1 well had 3 goes at the formation and 2800 was all they could get, they had to get off the hole which took some effort, and then had a snubbing unit there to deal with the repair work. and you dont use one of those if your hole is not throwing back a lot of pressure.  anyway after many months the well was repaired, but from what we see after a water treatment, the flow rates are not very much improved. i think the operator may be examining two different techniques for a very good reason myself.. with baker 1 they can easily replicate baker 2 or if weston does something amazing they can replicate a frac that we do or improve on it.. good planning going on here in some respects.. 

with what happened in both wells its highly likely the mud weights used and techniques employed to save the wells would not have been favorable to the formation.. these completion  are extremely interesting ones for everyone. 

all imho and dyor..


----------



## estseon

Agentm

The point that I was making was that EME has not reported that the blockage has been removed and the well cased. So, can they actually do an acid fracc on Baker 1 if it is partially blocked and not cased?

But, perhaps they did sort it out - you say that it was repaired. But I don't recall EME making any report of that. However, that may mean very little - EME is not good on follow-up.

Kowalik was pretty lively as well but I'm sure that the JVPs have said that they can get gear down the hole to the end. We might yet see what Baker 1 could have been.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> Agentm
> 
> The point that I was making was that EME has not reported that the blockage has been removed and the well cased. So, can they actually do an acid fracc on Baker 1 if it is partially blocked and not cased?
> 
> But, perhaps they did sort it out - you say that it was repaired. But I don't recall EME making any report of that. However, that may mean very little - EME is not good on follow-up.
> 
> Kowalik was pretty lively as well but I'm sure that the JVPs have said that they can get gear down the hole to the end. We might yet see what Baker 1 could have been.





clearly the baker 1 well had an acid frac completed on it.. its in the public statement from EME to their shareholders.. 

TCEI JV Block A-4 Well (baker 2)


TCEI also advised that the TCEI JV Block A-4 (baker 2) well commenced flowing to sales on the 14th February *after having an acid fracture stimulation performed.*


The well achieved average flow rates for the seven days up to and including 21st February, 2009 of 4.1 million cubic feet of gas per day and 400 barrels of condensate per day. 


the operator, conocophillips has performed an acid frac on the well, this can be done open hole, but there is no detail of what specifics went on with the acid frac, and imho it wont be for obvious reasons.

we know from a previous eme report the well had about 1200 feet of  lateral to work with.


----------



## Agentm

another operator whom is a jvp with TXCO had some things to say, and some interesting "no comment" on particular anadarrko well (TXCO/anadarko have also got a jvp going on the eagleford there)

this from saf.. who has been doing outstanding research lately imho..

St. Mary Land & Exploration Company Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

“Jay Ottoson ( SM ) - EVP and COO

In the Eagle Ford shale program in South Texas, we plan to continue into phase two of our joint venture with TXCO and Anadarko. We expect four horizontal tests will be drilled in 2009 in that JV area. Additionally, we plan to drill four horizontal wells outside of the JV to further test the potential of our acreage. We expect to drill the first operated well here in the second quarter.
As many of you are aware, Petrol has announced two very good Eagle Ford wells just to the east of us. So we’re excited to test our acreage this year. We have the potential to earn up to 210,000 net acres with Eagle Ford potential”

“Mike Scialla – Thomas Weisel Partners

*I have a question on South Texas. You talked about the Petro hot [ph] wells. You guys also have some non-operated wells in there. Can you say anything about those at this point?
*
Jay Ottoson

*Well, they’re operated by TXCO in a partnership with Anadarko. At this point, we haven’t released auto data about them. TXCO is the operator and we’ll let them talk about them at the point when the partnership can agree to release data. All I can really say at this point is that the results are fairly encouraging”*

“Tony Best ( SM )– President and CEO

……………But then what I’m really excited about are the emerging resource plays that we’ve mentioned. And that’s why, even in a difficult market, we are going to invest over $80 million in those three emerging plays, in the Marcellus, the Haynesville, and the Eagle Ford. And we’ve got great running room in all three. And a year ago, those three weren’t even on our radar screen. And now, with success in those plays, it has tremendous opportunity to strengthen and grow our inventory”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/122...mpany-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=5








http://www.stmaryland.com/Investors/Feb 2009 IR Presentation 2-23-09.pdf


These wells will be of interest to the JVP & could influence the timing of the next set of Block B wells. The CEO of TCEI is a main board member at Anadarko ( APC )


----------



## Agentm

looking at the region i am following 60 different wells in the eagleford/chalks

this larger map fills in the region a little better than the smaller maps the various operators put out.






[/IMG]


----------



## seasprite

Agentm , who is drilling in McMullen County at the moment and are there any results to date , thanks.


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Appreciate the indepth coverage of the area.  The bigger map gives a great snapshot of the exploration in Southern Texas.  All of the wells confirm what all the big players in area are looking for.  One can gather the published maps of TXCO, Weber, Pioneer, Meridian, etc, etc, and the area's they are hot on align perfectly with tracking you have shown in the last post.  Keep up the great informatio!!!!


jestex


----------



## Agentm

seasprite

the well is a horizontal completion, and was completed late last year to a length of xxxx feet, its called xxxxxxx 1 and it has xxxxxxxx as the operator.


xxxxx can mean 4000 donnell and  petrohawk

no completion reports yet that i have seen, and imho they have it ready for test at the moment.. 

so you get a visual, the one i neglected in mcmullen (just for a laugh, and its probably why you ask..) was the AZZ well they call yellow rose, its  jsut north of the petrohawk well..  i failed to put a lot of smaller operators in the search and list of wells, as i was feelin lazy..









jestex

the wells are really interesting to follow. plenty have been absolutely critical of me for posting the information. it seems its upsets some to know about the region greatly. (like mentioning pogue as a well tcei purchased off devon energy, and i didnt put it on the map.. which has drilled and tested the rock we like.. and is in the ipanema acreages for AUT. why the secrecy?? and why not tell the shareholders whats in pogue in any case?? was it no good??). 

anyway it bodes well imho for your acreages in dewitt thats for sure, with the pioneer well up the road from your ranch still going ahead.. and a chalks horizontal completion only a mile or so from it as well..


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Well not sure why all the "secrecy" especially to those shareholder who have invested large sums of money.  Without such shareholders these type of operations could not take place.  Even in my limited experience I have been able to put together the pieces and come to a pretty good guess as to how these players are exploring the area.  But, thanks to your indepth information it has only shed more light on the operations taking place.  So, many thanks for the efforts you make!!!!


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Here's today's W-1 filed by Winn Exploration.  Very close to my acreage.

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...ery=Y&name=GREEN+GAS+UNIT&univDocNo=485465235


----------



## estseon

"Well not sure why all the "secrecy" especially to those shareholder who have invested large sums of money. Without such shareholders these type of operations could not take place."
============================================================

Glad that somebody else finds it a bit of a puzzle. Understandable if there was competition to secure acreage but only to a point. One look at the RRC applications and approvals would give away much to somebody in the industry. What are they frightened of: over-supply?

We found out that the two Baker wells had been hooked up from the RRC production reports weeks before the company disclosed anything.

They could all make more money and less mistakes if they shared technology. We might even make some money...........


----------



## seasprite

has everyone missed the latest news http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090227/pdf/31g9qfj7bqywyk.pdf on Yemen sale


----------



## Agentm

this is what TXCO think they will get,, and on listening to their webcast the talk is that the recovery of 20% from the formation is possibly very conservative, they hav been getting 30% from the deeper shale and they are convinced with their  extensive core sampling and frac techniques that they are alraedy way abve the 20% threshold..

*TXCO and its partners also are drilling the
Eagleford. The company has so far successfully tested
three Eagleford wells. TXCO has 783,400 gross
(497,300 net) acres in its Eagleford project area. It
estimates 80- to 110 Bcf of gas per section, or 16- to
22 Bcf per section with a 20% recovery factor. Thus,
TXCO’s potential net asset in the Eagleford could be
7- to 10 Tcf of gas equivalent*


http://www.txco.com/OGI0109_UnconventionalGas_TXCO.pdf


----------



## Agentm

another participant.. nice backer on this one..  they have a well in mcmullen to drill now.. all on trend.

DALLAS, Texas, November 7, 2006 – Broad Oak Energy, Inc. announced today that it has received an equity commitment of up to $150 million from company management and Warburg Pincus to pursue the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and gas leasehold interests in certain onshore regions of the United States.

Broad Oak Energy will explore for and develop oil and gas resources in selected proven hydrocarbon basins between the Texas Gulf Coast, northern Louisiana and New Mexico, a region recognized as one of the world’s most prolific hydrocarbon producing areas. Initially, Broad Oak Energy is concentrating on identified tight gas opportunities in southern Texas and in northern Louisiana, but over time will draw on the previous experience of its management team to target other unconventional opportunities where it believes significant value can be created through infill and repeat drilling.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David Braddock, a former executive with Pioneer Natural Resources, said: “I am delighted to be teaming with Warburg Pincus, a leader in the field of private equity investing in the energy sector. With the firm’s financial backing and expertise, I am confident that our management team is in the best possible position to create and realize value.”

Mr. Braddock is joined by President John Coss, formerly Vice President of Acquisitions at Pioneer Natural Resources and Exploration Manager at Conoco, and by Vice President of Operations Robert Skinner, who previously held the same position at Camden Resources. This executive team has been complemented by strong hires in the areas of geology and geophysics, land and engineering.

Commenting on the investment, Peter R. Kagan, a Warburg Pincus Managing Director, said: “Led by a senior management team with extensive technical experience in all of its targeted areas, Broad Oak Energy has the operational capability and financial foundation to pursue multiple exploration projects and developments simultaneously and to succeed in the competitive environment of onshore oil and gas exploration in the United States.” Mr. Kagan added: “And, this investment is entirely consistent with our practice of backing strong management teams to build companies of meaningful scale.”

About Broad Oak Energy:
Broad Oak Energy, Inc. is a privately held oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on certain onshore regions of the United States. Formed with financial support from Warburg Pincus, Broad Oak Energy is led by a seasoned management and technical team with extensive relevant experience and a proven record of finding and developing hydrocarbon reserves. For additional information, please call (469) 522-7800 or visit www.broadoakenergy.com.


----------



## Hatchy

At the risk of sounding like i'm having a winge,

Why has this thread turned into a "any company looking for oil/gas in texas" thread?

We seem to be missing the point, which is ADI. 

No mention of the 4m raised by the sale of yemen - which could have been worth a heck of a lot more.


----------



## noco

Hatchy said:


> At the risk of sounding like i'm having a winge,
> 
> Why has this thread turned into a "any company looking for oil/gas in texas" thread?
> 
> We seem to be missing the point, which is ADI.
> 
> No mention of the 4m raised by the sale of yemen - which could have been worth a heck of a lot more.




Yes Hatchy, I have often wondered the same thing.

Have become confused as to what wells  ADI are actually involved.

Perhaps AGENT-M is trying to compare other plays with wells ajoining ADI's area.  Agent-M may care to elaborate.


----------



## prawn_86

Good question hatchy.

Perhaps its because ADI doesnt seem to be doing anything or getting anywhere so people are just talking about nearology, just like back in the bull market...


----------



## Agentm

i thought it was pretty clear..

i posted this before the article..

"another participant.. nice backer on this one.. they have a well in mcmullen to drill now.. all on trend."

i see its bothering you all to have info on the new wells going after the eagleford.. so i wont post anything..

as for why you guys didnt discuss seasprites message about adi getting $6million??  beats me why no one wants to discuss it or even sees it as worth discussing. so hatchy, why not discuss it with adi investors?? 

it appears to me the only thing of interest being discussed right now,  is not the regional operators, nor the recent sale of yemen, but only criticism of me.. with the usual childish mod taking his earliest opportunity to have a go at me as usual..

happy to leave the thread.. just let me know..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well I must say that even though AgentM's research is pretty in depth and full on maybe some dont think it is that relevant I must say I would rather read the info than not have it at all.

On the research seems like many explorers have their eye on the region spending vast ammounts of dollars exploring for whatr ADI are confident they have found.

Looks like not to much happening with ADI at the momment but they have a habit of suprising.

Yemen sale give some certainty to the financing and one would think it maybe lockdown time until the recession ends.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country,   regionally there are 60 wells i am following, just been posting a little bit here and there on the operators entering the arena..

originally mainly the top secret conocophillips was discussed in the early stages, and later the other participant in the play became public on it as they secured their acreages over the last few years.

if you look at the presentations of AUT and ADI you will see plenty of slides from pioneer, petrohawk etc that i have posted here also in their presentations. its not just me looking at the other regional players, its evident that the jvp itself is also doing it. 

We know that our jvp operator TCEI, headed up by Mr Fluor, also has a massive jvp with conoco, and also sits on the board of anadarko, which also has entered into the eagleford play. i know some here want to be insular, but its just not a play specific to our acreages..

i didnt mention too many of the smaller outfits, like AZZ recent yellow rose permit,  but the team in the broad oak energy camp are extremely interesting people indeed..  

i have not seen much chatter on this site anyway, i last posted last friday..
jestex from dewitt county and estseon were talking about a few things last week.. but apart from that there is only occasional chatter criticising me for posting research.. cant see anyone discussing anything on adi much,, i thought it was all about laying low for a good while now?? waiting to see how many jvp partners can make it through without cash? 

i have not even heard the jvp discuss testing the laterals.. just raising capital and keeping afloat is the name of the game now..  how many small caps without any cash will survive this??  i mean bare bones it costs $400K - $600K to run a asx listed company for a year.. how many have that in the bank?


----------



## solomon

Agentm I would like you to keep posting even when I don't fully understand the implications of your posts, I've learnt as much or more on this thread as any other source on the eagleford. Thanks.

As for the prospects lets hope the Yemen sale is completed (ie. ADI get the cash in the bank), something good comes of the indonesian mess and that the company can weather the current storm.


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

I agree with Lucky_Country and solomon.  Though I am new to this site your information has been very insightful.  I am not a share holder nor do I invest in ADI but I do own land in southern Texas and Agentm's posts have been very helpful in understanding what lies beneath the soil.  In addition, I am willing to share what information I have regarding the area and what I've managed to compile over the last year in researching the area.  Once, again thanks again to Agentm!!!!!


----------



## seasprite

keep it comin AgentM , sometimes this forum is like talking to a box at a McDonalds drive thru  1 minute to closing time . At least there is a bit of chatter now.


----------



## Agentm

solomon said:


> Agentm I would like you to keep posting even when I don't fully understand the implications of your posts, I've learnt as much or more on this thread as any other source on the eagleford. Thanks.
> 
> As for the prospects lets hope the Yemen sale is completed (ie. ADI get the cash in the bank), something good comes of the indonesian mess and that the company can weather the current storm.




as for not understanding the implications.. besides a lot of the research infuriating the investors here on this forum..  i know that the operator and some jvp members would prefer little or indeed no information to come out on this play. land owners like jestex love it!!

we know conoco monitors this thread and others that i post on, and we know that some jvp members would love to post some of the data i do on releases.. we have seen the posting of the sugarloaf 1 logs on websites.. but the jvp cannot release that information at all..  other asx companies freely post the well logs all the time.. texas is very competitive,, this play is ultra competitive and extremely closed shop by all operators..

its also all about the landowners getting wise to the play, unlike other smaller plays, this one goes across the state, so instead of a play being in partially in a county or along a fault and being a few miles long, this is an unconventional tight play thats stratagraphic and extends through many counties..

i'll rattle some off you.. 

webb dimmit maverick zavala lasalle mcmullen live oak karnes dewitt lavaca colorado austin waller grimes montgomery san jacinto tyler polk jasper newton sabine san augustine..... just to name a few..  and involves millions upon millions of contingent acreages.  

how many plays involve this many acres and this many counties in usa? none.. anywhere in the usa?? none onshore! 

so the likes of TCEI and  conoco get mighty peeved off if i post the sort of stuff i do..

lately the other operators have been putting out incredible reserve potentials on their acreages.. they have their acreages now and can talk it up to let the locals know who to deal with.. we know some regions will be very active, other will not be..

we know we are next door to some impressive chalks activity.. 

 a few years back everyone laughed themselves stupid at the notion this was the biggest onshore discovery in us history,, now we see conoco clearly agreeing on the potential.. and others starting to tell their shareholders and investors what they have done with their cash..

will it take as many years to crack as the barnett shale?? it appears its taking about half the time with petrohawk and anadarko and txco leading the way there..

conoco did some thing in the chalks in baker 2.. so its really interesting if our jvp are watching that or not..

no news of any testing on the laterals from our jvp!! whats going on??


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> i thought it was pretty clear..
> 
> i see its bothering you all to have info on the new wells going after the eagleford.. so i wont post anything..
> 
> I could see that you were possibly talking about an adjacent well, but still I had no idea where or what relevance to ADI it was, something like - "this well is going after the eagleford too" might deconfuse the post's when they're not something ADI is investing or involved in.
> 
> as for why you guys didnt discuss seasprites message about adi getting $6million??  beats me why no one wants to discuss it or even sees it as worth discussing. so hatchy, why not discuss it with adi investors??
> 
> Off forum I have discussed it with other ADI investors as you suggest. On forum if the topic is raised and not taken up, and has happened some time ago, why rehash, flog a dead horse anyone?
> 
> I'm going to be burned alive here, and this is purely personal opinion, but I would have liked to see them sell down their share in texas (not complete sale), and keep yemen. I think a broader portfolio of developable assets is a good thing.
> 
> 
> it appears to me the only thing of interest being discussed right now,  is not the regional operators, nor the recent sale of yemen, but only criticism of me.. with the usual childish mod taking his earliest opportunity to have a go at me as usual..
> 
> You seem to take these things personally, try not doing that. There's a hell of a lot more being discussed than criticism of you. At what point did I mention you in my post? At no point.
> 
> You don't own the forum, so the mods are no doubt going to have a go at people that stick their head out, you're well and truly the lead poster here on ADI, and more than likely the most knowledgeable with regards to the texas shale / austin chalk here at ASF.
> 
> 
> happy to leave the thread.. just let me know..



There's just no need for that sort of comment - why would you write that? 

Are you unhappy with me mentioning that it seems that the thread is off the topic of ADI, and now asking for clarification with posts that aren't necessarily about ADI? Is that such a stab at you that you are 'happy to leave'? I probably should have worded my post in a more sensitive way. I did make no mention of 'tagging' the posts as a way of distinguishing them. 

Agent if you were offended by my post, I do apologise and be assured the sharing of your paramount research on Texas and knowledge in general about this play is very welcomed by most if not all posters here on the ADI thread, and I welcome it very much, it's the most education i've been given about the play.  

Can I ask that if posters are going to put something up that's relevant because it's texas shale / chalk but not relevant to ADI that it's somehow tagged so that the laggards such as myself can keep up? I don't, as other don't, want this thread to be insular to ADI - but I am seeking something that clarifies the non-ADI posts for readers. Sure some are obvious to most readers, but some really aren't. 

Hey look, if somehow people tags things it'll be great. I won't hold my breath and it won't stop me reading it if people don't take to tagging posts. It'd just be nice.


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> There's just no need for that sort of comment - why would you write that?
> 
> Are you unhappy with me mentioning that it seems that the thread is off the topic of ADI, and now asking for clarification with posts that aren't necessarily about ADI? Is that such a stab at you that you are 'happy to leave'? I probably should have worded my post in a more sensitive way. I did make no mention of 'tagging' the posts as a way of distinguishing them.
> 
> Agent if you were offended by my post, I do apologise and be assured the sharing of your paramount research on Texas and knowledge in general about this play is very welcomed by most if not all posters here on the ADI thread, and I welcome it very much, it's the most education i've been given about the play.
> 
> Can I ask that if posters are going to put something up that's relevant because it's texas shale / chalk but not relevant to ADI that it's somehow tagged so that the laggards such as myself can keep up? I don't, as other don't, want this thread to be insular to ADI - but I am seeking something that clarifies the non-ADI posts for readers. Sure some are obvious to most readers, but some really aren't.
> 
> Hey look, if somehow people tags things it'll be great. I won't hold my breath and it won't stop me reading it if people don't take to tagging posts. It'd just be nice.




lol

wow.. the length folk go to to keep the adi issues off the agenda and to just maintain their personal grievances against me for posting here..  but despite your vaiant efforts here hatchy, i am going to continue to post about adi and the operators near by and what they say about the play..

if you spent the same time researching the region instead of critiquing me all the time hatchy... you would not of course not have missed this..

thanks for the heads up saf..


----------



## Hatchy

I really think what I said was taken the wrong way. 

I apologize and retract the comment about there being posts not about ADI. I want and encourage freedom of information here. I just support organisation of information, that's it.

Agent I never asked that you not post. Never have, never will.

I have no campaign to stop info about this play coming out. I invest in ADI - why would I want that? Why would anyone? 

This is what I would call making a mountain out of a molehill.

Forget everything I have mentioned.


----------



## Agentm

again on topic and thanks to saf.. more operators coming out with their eagleford exposure,,

rosetta moved into the unconventional eagleford plays and listed these as 2008 achievements... 

_Significant progress on strategy shift to onshore unconventional player

Entered several new unconventional plays with substantial upside from meaningful positions_


----------



## Hatchy

About the Yemen Sale:

This appeared on BI-ME Yesterday. 

YEMEN. Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co is set to acquire an interest in an oil and gas field in southern Yemen from Australian resources developer Adelphi Energy, it was learned on Friday.

The prospective deal, seen to be worth  ¥400 million (US$4.1 million) will give Mitsui an 8.5% stake in an undeveloped area of the field. 

It will be the first time for the company to obtain a stake in a Yemeni oil and gas field. 
 Mitsui plans to conduct joint exploration with other companies, the sources said. 
 Since there is a field nearby that produces 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day, the area to be explored by Mitsui is seen to be promising, the sources said. 
 Mitsui is promoting oil and gas development in the Middle East. It has acquired concessions in Oman, Qatar and Abu Dhabi of the UAE.


----------



## Hatchy

About the Indonesia (should I call it mess?) - It'd be great to hear some more about what's going on here - [FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]5,257 square kilometers onshore - that's a lot of prospect to look at. [/FONT]

One of the JVP's in [FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]ACG (South Bengara-II) Pte. Ltd.[/FONT] - GeoPetro have delisted from the Toronto Ex - maybe they're in a bit of financial trouble and they're really trying everything to cut down on spending - even paying their bills to Indonesia. 



               SAN FRANCISCO, Mar 03, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- GeoPetro Resources Company ("GeoPetro" or the "Company") (NYSE Alternext        US:GPR) (TSX:GEP) announces that the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") has        accepted the Company's application to voluntarily delist its common        stock from the TSX. The Company's common stock will cease trading on the        TSX effective at the close of trading on March 5, 2009. In recent        months, the trading volume of the Company's common stock on the TSX has        been extremely low. In light of the low trading volume on the TSX and        the Company's listing on the NYSE Alternext US market, the Company's        board of directors determined that it is no longer in the Company's best        interest to continue to incur the expenses associated with a second        stock exchange listing. Accordingly, the Company requested that the TSX        delist its shares.            
                                                  The Company's common stock will continue to be listed on the NYSE        Alternext US market. The Company confirms that its transfer agent will        settle all trades on the TSX up until the date of delisting. The Company        continues to be a reporting issuer under the securities laws of each of        the provinces of Canada.            
                                                  About GeoPetro            
                                                  GeoPetro is an independent oil and natural gas company headquartered in        San Francisco, California. GeoPetro currently has projects in the United        States, Canada and Indonesia. GeoPetro has developed a producing        property in its Madisonville Project in Texas. Elsewhere, GeoPetro has        assembled a geographically diversified portfolio of exploratory and        appraisal prospects.


----------



## seasprite

Hatchy said:


> About the Yemen Sale:
> 
> This appeared on BI-ME Yesterday.
> 
> YEMEN. Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co is set to acquire an interest in an oil and gas field in southern Yemen from Australian resources developer Adelphi Energy, it was learned on Friday.
> 
> The prospective deal, seen to be worth  ¥400 million (US$4.1 million) will give Mitsui an 8.5% stake in an undeveloped area of the field.




Is block 74 still on the books , I have been concentrating on other projects and have lost touch a bit with ADI , maybe this will be up for sale as well.


----------



## Hatchy

With regards to Yemen:



seasprite said:


> Is block 74 still on the books , I have been concentrating on other projects and have lost touch a bit with ADI , maybe this will be up for sale as well.




I think you're right, block 74 should still be on the books - it was only block 7 that was sold. 

From what I gather block 7 was the more explored block. 

"In Yemen Block 74... Preparations are being made to acquire aeromagnetic data in the second quarter of 2009 followed by seismic in the fourth quarter."

Quoted from the quarterly. I think block 7 had seismic done at time of sale. 

Thanks for the reminder about 74 Seasprite.

Just a reminder about 74:

Block 74 Working Interests
Oil Search (Yemen) Limited 34%, operator
Kufpec (Aden) Limited 21.25%
Voyager Energy Limited 21.25%
Adelphi Energy Limited 8.5%
The Yemen Company 15%, carried


----------



## Agentm

block 74 is for sale as are all things with any company on any exchange.

an extensive 2d is due on it very soon. 

the interests are not as posted above. oilsearch is not operator, oilsearch has no interest in the block what so ever, it sold its interests to a kuwati oil company a good year ago or so. i think they got about $80 mill for all their ME assets, with a few exceptions. which makes the $6mill for our small part of one block very good in terms of the sale itself... oilsearch kept the likes of block 7 and the one below as it was too good to let go.. ADI could not afford to drill those wells there, too expensive. yemen is a very popular region to go searching for oil..

voyager is not involved, they were purchased by ARQ, who are now owned by awe.


----------



## seasprite

Agentm is correct , I know that much , OSH sold their interest in Block 74 last year (reported 25 Aug 08) as part of the Mena arrangement. Block 74 had 500km of seismic reprocessing and 250km of 2D seismic to do.


----------



## Hatchy

Thanks for the update, I couldn't find that info myself. 

I guess that's going to be the big thing for them - do they sell yemen 74 to people with more cash to develop or do they keep trying to fund it through the seismic, and hope to come up with something really worth selling?

I'll try to look for a better list than I posted.


----------



## seasprite

Hatchy said:


> Thanks for the update, I couldn't find that info myself.
> 
> I guess that's going to be the big thing for them - do they sell yemen 74 to people with more cash to develop or do they keep trying to fund it through the seismic, and hope to come up with something really worth selling?
> 
> I'll try to look for a better list than I posted.




my apologies Hatchy , it was posted under OSH's asx announcements , see http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080825/pdf/31bwkzgz8wq57z.pdf

Yemen looks like a good prospect , it's a pitty ADI put block 7 up for sale , but cash is what they need now to move forward.


----------



## Hatchy

Thanks seasprite, 
Yemen Block 74 could still surprise us I think. 
It's still right in there close to the action. 

Question will be.... By the time the seismic is through and analysed, is ADI going to have the cash to fund it's 8.5% of a test well?

Only time will tell that one. 



All's very quiet on the Indonesia front.... Makes sense to try and sit on a lease until times are better, but for how long can that go on?


----------



## Agentm

aurora has released a half yearly

good report, the company appears to be in good shape as at dec 08..

*at last* the play will be called the eagleford

i think when they say "excelsior" that they may mean "empyrean"??? 

Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field, Texas USA

The Sugarkane field consists of approximately 200,000 acres of Austin Chalk overlying Eagle Ford Shale with a combined gross reservoir thickness of 250 – 400 ft. The Eagle Ford Shale has recently become a regional play extending far beyond the boundaries of our field where Aurora believes the local quality and pressure make it particularly attractive. Aurora participates in 52,000 acres within the Sugarkane field and has a net acreage position of 20,500 acres. The Company is a participant in three Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI) and the following sections provide an update on activity in each.
Sugarloaf AMI (20% Working Interest) Texas, USA

To date all of the modern wells drilled into this field as part of the appraisal program have been drilled in either the Sugarloaf AMI or the adjacent “Sugarkane” AMI (Aurora does not have an interest in the Sugarkane AMI). At the time of writing there have now been 10 wells drilled in total and a further 2 are presently underway. Of these there are 4 drilled within the Sugarloaf AMI.

In prior periods the company has carried out operations at the vertical Sugarloaf #1 well and the horizontal Kennedy #1H well. The present status of these two wells is that Sugarloaf #1 well is suspended as a potential sidetrack candidate and Kennedy #1H has been on production since October 2008. The horizontal section of Kennedy #1H is believed to be within the deeper Eagle Ford formation and has had two small fracture stimulation attempts across the bottom 600 ft of the 4,000 ft horizontal well. Whilst the well produced at an average rate of 0.38 mmscfe/d over a 101 day period, neither attempt at stimulation is thought to have been effective. The intention is to fracture stimulate the entire length of this well using a revised hydraulic fracture design based on successful results from wells recently completed in the regional Eagle Ford Play.

In July 2008 the Kowalik #1H well was spudded. The surface location of this step-out well was just over 6km to the north of the Kennedy #1H well. A pilot hole was first drilled down through the reservoir which encountered a
reservoir that correlated with the broad structural field model in terms of depth, gross thickness and character. The well was then sidetracked and a 4,600 ft horizontal section was drilled underbalanced within the Austin Chalk reservoir. The well encountered indications of natural fractures across the final 2,500 ft, in particular, the final 1,500 ft encountered significant flaring and gas shows. 
The drilling and completion strategy at Kowalik #1H was based on an analogous field that produces from naturally fractured and over pressured Austin Chalk formations. A slotted liner was installed with no annular isolation and a chemical wash was used to remove the drilling mud from the system. Initial production rates of 4.2 mmscfe/d were observed from this unstimulated well with rates of 1.4 mmscfe/d recently achieved. The Joint Venture believes that the characteristics observed whilst drilling indicate that this rate can be improved and an alternative completion strategy is required. The Joint Venture continues to monitor performance and results across the field before optimising a further completion work program on this well.

The Weston #1H well was drilled with a 1.5km step out to the east of the Kennedy #1H location. The well was drilled underbalanced with a 3,000ft horizontal section within the Austin Chalk formation. Although the well encountered overpressured gas charged matrix rock along the entire length of the horizontal section, it is not believed that the well encountered any natural fractures.
Based upon the lack of natural fracture indications and the knowledge gained during the completion operations at Kowalik #1H, the Weston #1H well has been completed with a cemented liner and will be fracture stimulated in due
course.

Regional Eagle Ford Activity

The deeper part of the reservoir encountered across the Sugarkane field is regionally known as the Eagle Ford Shale. 

*This silaceous shale has a relatively high chalk content and in earlier reporting we have referred to this horizon as the ‘new chalk’. To ensure consistency with others, it will be referred to as the Eagle Ford Shale henceforth.*

There has been a significant amount of leasing and drilling operations carried out across a broad trend in South Texas, with the Sugarkane Field being in the centre of this activity. Experienced US based unconventional gas
companies such as Petrohawk Energy, Apache Corporation, Pioneer Natural Resources and Anadarko have all announced leasing activity and early well results within the Eagle Ford Trend. Petrohawk for instance have reported
two wells with initial production rates of 9.1 and 8.3 million cubic feet equivalent of gas per day following fracture stimulations.

Sugarkane AMI (Aurora has no interest in either the Sugarkane or Excelsior AMIs within the Sugarkane field but proximity makes the results relevant)

(Note: the contents of this section are entirely based on information disclosed by Empyrean Energy PLC (EME”) to the AIM market during the reporting period and publically available data lodged with the Texas Railroad Commission.

There have now been a total of 6 wells drilled within the Sugarkane AMI, 3  horizontal and 3 vertical. The original vertical well continues to produce with a plateau profile. EME have announced production results for the 3
horizontal wells. There are a further 2 horizontal Austin Chalk wells being drilled at the time of writing this report.

Well A1, a horizontal Austin Chalk well, has been producing at a stabilized rate from the bottom 900 ft of horizontal section at a rate of 2.6 mmscfe/d. This section was then isolated while attempts were made to stimulate the shallower 1800 ft of the horizontal section. This 1800 ft section has reported an initial production rate of 4.2 mmscfe/d following stimulation. These zones will now be comingled and further production testing will take place.

Well A3, which has 2,800 ft drilled horizontally within the Austin Chalk, has had a chemical wash treatment carried out and was recently reported as flowing to sales at a rate of 4.5 mmscfe/d.

Well A4, another horizontal Austin Chalk well has been reported as flowing to sales at 8.1 mmscfe/d after an acid fracture stimulation.


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

As us Texans say "Yeehaa!!" finally acknowledgment from the players that the Eagle Ford has landed!!  I figured  they realized the cat has long been out of the bag might as well call it what it is.  


Looks like things are looking better for ADI investors.  Thanks once again Agentm for the info.!!!!


----------



## estseon

The ADI report seems to be pretty much a re-hash of AUT or the result of coordination. Both suggest a change of priority away from Weston and Kowalik to Kennedy. If so, this is significant as EKA definitely mentioned operations on the two chalk wells as the objective for raising capital.

But that was whilst Weston drilling was underway.

Frankly, I don't really care which they tackle first as long as they get production.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> The ADI report seems to be pretty much a re-hash of AUT or the result of coordination. Both suggest a change of priority away from Weston and Kowalik to Kennedy. If so, this is significant as EKA definitely mentioned operations on the two chalk wells as the objective for raising capital.
> 
> But that was whilst Weston drilling was underway.
> 
> Frankly, I don't really care which they tackle first as long as they get production.




there is always a reason for each completion or each process to be chosen or undertaken

most drilling so far has been concentrated on underbalanced open hole completions. following the east texas chalks experience, anadarko has had good wells there with underbalanced open hole completions, and the chalks in our region was reported to be very similar by all jvp members..

some experimental wells like kunde 3 were drilled underbalanced and completed with a cemented liner, mainly due to the kunde 1 well flowing commercial flow off the vertical after a frac operation. most other wells were only finished with a liner and cemented due to factors and  problems during the drilling process. and that mainly due to the massive pressures and temperatures in the eagleford.

i think our first good open well experience, kowalik, was damaged as suggested in reports.. kennedy before it went too deep to find good chalks. so completed in typical eagleford shale fashion.

what has been discovered about the formation since, imho, is that the present drilling techniques for underbalanced open hole well completions are not producing at the rates considered commercial. and as they now say, fracture stimulation is now considered the key to commercial success here. the region is yet to give up a lot of natural fractures. 

kunde 1 was the first well to be fracced, it proved successful.

kunde 3 has been fracced and has been getting considerable flow rates off the sections so far completed.

baker 2 has been acid fracced, again a successful operation from initial reports

leaving baker 1 as just being washed out and cleaned up and having much more connectivity to the formation in terms of completion length than baker 2, yet not exactly flowing at brilliant rates open hole. i wonder if the well will be fracced in a different way there, perhaps a contrast to the acid frac?

marlene olsen and kunde 2 are yet to be reported on. nor the recent olsen baker and lasca searcy wells.. which little will be divulged imho..

not enough has been reported back from the wells in live oak, and not enough to really gauge what the thoughts are on the formation. but its evident as far as the TCEI/conoco jvp is concerned, further wells have been drilled and more laterals in karnes and dewitt are on the way also. they will all need to be tested in some fashion in the future, and those laterals are critical to theTCEI/conoco jvp in terms of determining how the region looks.. i doubt they will be experimenting in those laterals, i think they will only be drilled if they have reason to believe the outcome will be good enough for them to be able to make commercial evaluations with the lateral. the verticals drilled would have established for them whether the hydrocarbons were there or not


kennedy sits in the tighter and lower eagleford shale.. and is untested
kowalik, is possibly damaged and is yet to be tested
weston is yet to be tested

plenty of scope for improvement, the hydrocarbons are there, the overpressurised formation is obviously making the frac process a nightmare. and other operator have overcome that problem already.

it seems no forward plans are in place for any further fracture stimulation operations as yet. its deadly quiet all round. all three laterals need good outcomes, and what is not needed on them is haste. i think the jvps all need to keep a close watch on the current ops in live oak before considering how to best approach the completions in the laterals. in the mean time the laterals are producing income , adi as a producer right now.

perhaps the way ahead is likely to be cheaper drilling with fast overbalanced completions? perhaps once the frac processes are proven to be effective. 

it seems the open hole 6000 foot or 12000 foot dual laterals are not solutions currently being sought, but perhaps the anadarko experiments in recent months in the eagleford have come up with far better outcomes, pioneer and apache seem to think so, so does petrohawk and anadarko..  obviously conoco and tcei have not even remotely stopped their exploration and appraisals

its a long way from calling this current exploration a resounding success, nor can you justify walking away, but there seems to be more regional activity falling in favor towards the success side of things right now, with participants like petrohawk and anadarko making good wells off 2500 laterals. equal to what the 12000 foot open hole wells in the east texas region are giving.. up until now the open hole methods utilised have been from the "east texas chalks"..  i think the methods of the recent wells in central and  west texas in the eagleford shale are now getting greater scrutiny,  and is being mentioned more and more in all the releases from the jvp. conoco is certainly going into frac completions also..

real early days.. its definitive that the rock is hydrocarbon saturated, and as with all the early wells that petrohawk had, they got some flow from it but nothing really world changing until recently, the anadarko experience there is certainly what made them come out and start getting excited about their discovery and their acreages.. whatever judgement people make on the absolute viability with the current ops, they will certainly see that one thing is there, the hydrocarbons, but the catalyst to make them flow at very good commercial rates is what all investors alike want to see. We are seeing pioneer and petrohawk getting very close to the mark,, anadarko is obviously a real good factor as they are using their open hole experience in east texas and definitely improving on things in the eagleford. not over yet for me..

all imho and dyor.



Oil to Make New Highs in Bull Market, DB Advisors Say

By Aaron Clark

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices will make new highs “in this secular bull market” and commodities will surge in the second half of 2009, said Theresa Gusman, the head of equity research for Deutsche Bank AG’s DB Advisors unit.

“We do believe we will exceed” last year’s record high crude oil price of $147.27 a barrel “in this secular bull market,” Gusman told reporters in New York today. Oil and other commodities will rise in the second half of 2009 as producers cut back on production, she said.

The so-called secular bull market, or period of sustained price gains, started in 2002 and may last 15 to 20 years, she said, without specifying when oil will reach new highs.

“We do think over time, as demand globally recovers, we are going to see oil prices return to those highs that we saw last year because the supply and demand situation hasn’t changed all that much,” she said.

Crude oil for April delivery rose 54 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $47.61 a barrel at 11:25 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have plummeted 68 percent since reaching a record high last year.

Gusman estimated U.S. energy exploration and production spending will drop $22.5 billion this year, a 40 percent year-on- year decline, she said.

“These dramatic cutbacks in capital expenditures are going to lead to shortages as we move through this recession and come out the other end,” she said.

DB Advisors oversees more $215 billion in assets and manages long-only commodity funds for institutional and retail investors. The funds include holdings in commodity indexes and commodity- related equities. 

also from saf (thanks again)


Anadarko Investor Conference 10 Mar 2009

3 emerging resource plays inc Eagleford transitioning to development in 2010

Eagleford categorised as a discovery since the 2008 investor conference

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NYS/APC/2009APCInvestorConf.pdf


----------



## Agentm

conocophillips latest presentation announces their early entry into the eagleford.

its also part of the major exploration program for 2009

Good acreage positions in many of
best unconventional resource plays

• In 2007/08 added >750,000 net acres in
North American resource plays

• Optionality to sustain long-term organic
growth onshore

• Reducing 2009 spend in the most price
sensitive plays

 Extensive experience in CBM, shale,
and tight gas reservoirs

 2009 exploration spend focused in
Barnett, Bakken, Montney, and
emerging Eagle Ford shale play







[/url]


----------



## Agentm

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...hillips-scales-drilling-discloses-texas-buys/


Wednesday, March 11, 2009
ConocoPhillips Scales Back Drilling, Discloses Texas Buys

NEW YORK -- ConocoPhillips CEO Jim Mulva said the oil and gas giant is scaling back some drilling programs in North America because of low energy prices and dips in demand tied to the recession, but the company still plans to meet its overall production forecast for the year. *Officials at the Houston energy firm said the company has been quietly acquiring acreage in Maverick and La Salle counties in southern Texas in the Eagleford shale region rather than paying higher costs for other oil shale acreage. Looking ahead, ConocoPhillips plans to ramp up its efforts in unconventional natural gas, the company said. Apache and Petrohawk have both been talking about success in Eagleford, ConocoPhillips executives noted.*



ConocoPhillips Eyes Natural Gas Shale Investments -Executive
March 11, 2009: 11:54 AM ET

 NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- *ConocoPhillips (COP) plans to continue investing in unconventional natural gas basins and has built up positions in the Haynesville and Eagle Ford shale reservoirs,* Jim Gallogly, the company's executive vice president of exploration and production, said Wednesday.

*"We're going to be a player in unconventional resources in a big way in the future," said Gallogly, speaking at ConocoPhillips' analyst meeting in New York.
*
Gas shale reservoirs have sparked a flurry of drilling activity from independent producers including Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) and Petrohawk Energy (HK), but oil majors' involvement has been limited. And producers are sharply reducing rig counts as natural gas prices tumble.

*ConocoPhillips has acquired a leading position in south Texas' Eagle Ford shale, buying up 300,000 net acres ahead of the rest of the industry at low cost,* Gallogly said. The company also has a position in Louisiana's Haynesville Shale.


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...hillips-scales-drilling-discloses-texas-buys/
> 
> 
> 
> *"We're going to be a player in unconventional resources in a big way in the future," said Gallogly, speaking at ConocoPhillips' analyst meeting in New York.
> *
> *ConocoPhillips has acquired a leading position in south Texas' Eagle Ford shale, buying up 300,000 net acres ahead of the rest of the industry at low cost,* Gallogly said. The company also has a position in Louisiana's Haynesville Shale.





What a smart bunch they are over there at ConocoPhillips. That's surely how every company wants to play it, grab a huge acreage "at low cost". Somehow I think they might be finished getting their acreage, and have announced it now so that there's upward price pressure for anyone else trying to follow suit. 

Nice to see that the Eagleford is a play that they're actively persuing in 2009, which is only one of 4 they're going after this year in the "unconventional play" sector - and all they're going after is Shale according to that graphic. So they must really think they can score a big hit from their Shale plays. 

Would be nice for ADI to be teamed up a bit more directly with ConocoP, but I doubt we'd be considered on that big money stage. 


Great bit of commentary yesterday Agent, loved the insight given when you pull it all together.


----------



## Agentm

Agentm said:


> conocophillips latest presentation announces their early entry into the eagleford.
> 
> its also part of the major exploration program for 2009
> 
> Good acreage positions in many of
> best unconventional resource plays
> 
> • In 2007/08 added >750,000 net acres in
> North American resource plays
> 
> • Optionality to sustain long-term organic
> growth onshore
> 
> • Reducing 2009 spend in the most price
> sensitive plays
> 
> Extensive experience in CBM, shale,
> and tight gas reservoirs
> 
> 2009 exploration spend focused in
> Barnett, Bakken, Montney, and
> emerging Eagle Ford shale play
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> [/url]






Hatchy said:


> What a smart bunch they are over there at ConocoPhillips. That's surely how every company wants to play it, grab a huge acreage "at low cost". Somehow I think they might be finished getting their acreage, and have announced it now so that there's upward price pressure for anyone else trying to follow suit.
> 
> Nice to see that the Eagleford is a play that they're actively persuing in 2009, which is only one of 4 they're going after this year in the "unconventional play" sector - and all they're going after is Shale according to that graphic. So they must really think they can score a big hit from their Shale plays.
> 
> Would be nice for ADI to be teamed up a bit more directly with ConocoP, but I doubt we'd be considered on that big money stage.
> 
> 
> Great bit of commentary yesterday Agent, loved the insight given when you pull it all together.






ConocoPhillips flaunts its exploration finds

*ConocoPhillips put its exploration efforts front and center Wednesday in an apparent effort to debunk Wall Street’s view that the Houston-based oil major grows by acquisition rather than finding its own oil and gas.*

That view was bolstered when ConocoPhillips slashed $34 billion in asset values late last year to bring them in line with oil and natural gas prices that plunged from lofty highs as the worst recession in decades gripped the globe. The company also is eliminating more than 1,300 jobs.

Some analysts said the write-offs exposed the potential weakness in ConocoPhillips’ prevailing growth-by-acquisition strategy.

Bernstein Research analyst Neil McMahon suggested in a recent report that ConocoPhillips consider spinning off its exploration operation.

“A truly exploration-focused spinoff would undoubtedly catch the eye of true exploration geologists, whereas ConocoPhillips may not,” McMahon wrote.
80% of capital budget

*Chairman and CEO James Mulva and his executive team sought to rebut such views on Wednesday during a conference with analysts in New York.*

*The company expects production to be flat at 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day this year, and ConocoPhillips cut its capital spending. But about 80 percent of that $12.5 billion capital budget will fund exploration and production. And of that, 37 percent will go to major ongoing projects while 36 percent is poured into exploiting new and existing resources.*

Mulva stressed that the company has always found reserves on its own in addition to acquisitions but acknowledged that “we have not distinguished ourselves in terms of exploration success.”

*The company isn’t shopping for more assets and aims to bring on another 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day over the next decade with its current portfolio.*

Asked about acquisitions, he said: “We don’t need to do anything to be the company we want to be five or 10 years from now. *We’ve got a lot on our plate.”*

Larry Archibald, the company’s vice president of exploration and production, also acknowledged the analysts’ skepticism, noting that “some of you tough critics have challenged me by saying, ‘What exploration?’”

Strategic projects in the pipeline include engineering and design to develop the Shah natural gas field in Abu Dhabi, a partnership with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., and a liquefied natural gas and coal bed methane business in Australia stemming from the company’s new joint venture with Origin Energy.

Startups planned for this year include projects in Indonesia and Qatar.
Additional acreage

Archibald noted that the company has gained acreage for exploration as well in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska’s northern shore, in the Gulf of Mexico and in U.S. natural gas shale.

*He said ConocoPhillips shied away from “feeding frenzies” at high-profile shale plays where some companies rushed in and spent $25,000 or more per acre amid the pre-recession boom in gas production.* Those plays included the Haynesville in East Texas and northern Louisiana, and the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio and West Virginia.

*He said ConocoPhillips will keep spending in more established plays, such as the Barnett shale near Fort Worth, and the lesser-known Eagle Ford in South Texas, where the company has a leading acreage position.*

*“We’re going to be a player in unconventional resources in a big way in the future,” said Jim Gallogly, executive vice president of exploration and production.*

ConocoPhillips also is increasing deep-water presence in the Gulf of Mexico as well as Bangladesh, where little exploration has occurred.

The company’s spending pullback is showing up in some higher-cost operations, Archibald said, including Canadian oil sands operations. And with natural gas prices below $4 per million British thermal units and a glut of natural gas in inventory, it has cut its rigs to 40 from 60.


hatchy

TCEI is 100% tied up with COP.. since moving away from initially mobil to later on burlington, TCEI found a very good region, initially they were chasing an edwards play, but burlington (pre conocophillips buyout) found something amazing in kunde 1. and that discovery well was the catalyst for many years of exploration and experimentation in laterals and different completion processes. the rock is very overpressurised and has 60 gravity on the condensate- it doesnt get any better! plus its about 80% condensate to gas in the return.. amazing stuff.. 

TCEI and Conocophillips have combined in their efforts in all wells. There is no doubt the current wait on the live oak wells is not for any other reason than to make sure all 3 completions we have to undertake on our laterals (Kennedy-Kowalik-Weston) will have the benefit of the latest understandings and techniques undertaken by COP and by anadarko (mr fluor does sit on the board of anadarko)

TCEI has a direct relationship with COP, so by default ADI is also involved there, not getting direct knowledge, as that would not be allowed..  but TCEI is allowed access and  therefor ADI is absolutely benefiting by default from the TCEI/conocophillips jvp and sharing of data..

small minnows in some good acres.. with 3 good laterals all in the region needed.. we know these operators like conoco, pioneer, petrohawk,anadarko and apache are all going places on the shale.. and we are right in the thick of it and totally surrounded by conoco acreages..

looks good for the ADI share if success is made from the 3 laterals and a few more wells go in to prove up all the acreages..

in dewitt county the weber well has started krause..  its practically next to the hooks well that conoco have been working on there for a good years or more.... so pioneer and weber and conoco have all got eagleford action there,  in karnes its conoco with the bordovsky well and our TCEI jvp with the 3 laterals and one vertical..

in live oak its all TCEI and conoco, they took the lot, pioneer managed one lateral, but difnt get much acreage around it, TCEI blitzed them big time..

EKA announced the sugarloaf 1 well will now be considered for a sidetrack.. great news there.. looks like all money invested in all wells still have plenty of options and all have massive upside potential in terms of generating significant amounts of revenue..

imho long days but early days still.. i am in until conoco pulls out.. (and that aint happening in 2009)


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Your last two posts were great.  Great information on how these companies are positioning themselves like chess pieces each looking for that checkmate.  Your prospective was also very well versed.  Seems like COP have very nicely padded there porfolio's!!  As for ADI investors seems like things are starting to pan out in there favor imho.  Keep up the great posts Agentm!!


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

I'm sure you saw this presentation.  But, for those who are skeptical as to the significance of the southern Texas play should take a look at this presentation from 11/24/09 in particular slide's 8, 9, 18, 20, & 21.

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2008/AUT20081124.pdf


----------



## Agentm

Operations Update

TXCO has significantly reduced drilling in light of current commodity prices and liquidity constraints. *It is moving ahead with a limited drilling program, focused on high-impact projects, particularly the Maverick Basin's Pearsall and Eagle Ford shale gas resource plays*. It currently has two rigs operating.

*In tests following a multi-stage fracture stimulation, the Briscoe Catarina West 1H (50 percent working interest through completion) flowed at rates as high as 6 mmcfde from the Eagle Ford with a high liquids content*. On the Pearsall play, a multi-stage frac is under way on the San Pedro Ranch 2 (50% WI through completion) following mechanical delays. Targeting the Georgetown formation, the Burr C 7-231XH (50% WI) flowed at rates as high at 1.9 mmcfe with high liquids content in tests.

Management Perspective

"*TXCO's leasehold assets have excellent prospects but currently we face extraordinary challenges following the unprecedented collapse in oil and gas prices that occurred late last year*," said Chairman and CEO James E. Sigmon. "*We are moving ahead, within current financial constraints, to drill the Eagle Ford, Pearsall, Georgetown and other highly prospective plays*. We're taking aggressive and prudent actions to re-set financial obligations of the Company and to our stakeholders. We also are continuing our strategic alternatives review. Our goal continues to be converting the extensive potential of our large acreage position with multiple plays into stockholder value."


----------



## Agentm

conoco transcripts from COP - ConocoPhillips Analyst Meeting

http://www.conocophillips.com/NR/rd...1E41942B98/0/2009analystmeetingtranscript.pdf

John Carrig - ConocoPhillips - President, COO

*I wanted to mention the new play that we're working, Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. We've accumulated over 300,000 net acres. The key here is to be one of the first, the people who discovered the play instead of one of the people who come in the back end and pay extra for the acreage. Larry's going to talk more about that play in the exploration section. Strong positions in many of these top resource plays in the Lower 48.*


Larry Archibald - ConocoPhillips - VP - Exploration

We also do a lot in onshore North America, about 190 wells there, a very successful program. We're going to talk about a few successes but if I had any disappointments it's a few of the bigger growth opportunities. *We drilled some nice wildcats, had some nice discoveries in '08.* Some of the bigger ones slipped into '09. *The good news is we're drilling some of those now and we'll talk about some of those programs.*

*Really the big news for me in '08 was the acreage position that we built up in some high impact plays. Starting out in North America, we invested over $1 billion in some several high impact plays,* notable the Chukchi Sea. We'll talk about that. Deepened our position in the Gulf of Mexico, particularly in the emerging Lower Tertiary play. *And many of you don't know it but we continued to quietly pick up large acreage positions in the best North American resource plays and we've tended to shy away from the feeding frenzies in the better publicized ones but we'll talk to you about some of those positions.*

*Before we get to the Big E I do have to mention briefly the North American resource plays,* although we're going to spend less money on them. A lot of you don't realize what a huge footprint we have in many of the best plays in North America. Jim already mentioned that San Juan Basin that we are the biggest player, that's the mother of all CBM plays, only rivaled by our new position in Origin. *But in the shale gas plays we have some impressive positions. We're going to continue to spend some money in exploration in several of the best established ones.*

In 2009, we'll continue to spend money in the most profitable hearts of the Barnett, the Bakken in North Dakota which is more liquid, Montney in Canada, *and Jim mentioned the Eagle Ford. While people were making very expensive, highly publicized moves in Marcellus and Haynesville and other places, we were quietly putting together a few hundred thousand acres in the emerging Eagle Ford play at a few hundred dollars an acre.*

*We didn't say much about it but now that our competitors, PetroHawk and Apache have bookended our positions and making a lot of public announcements about the good rates they're getting out of their horizontal wells, we're coming out of the closet on that one*. We also have some smaller HBP positions in some of the plays like the Haynesville, but again, chose not to join the feeding frenzy for high priced acres last year. *Exciting position, we've got some great legacy positions. Some of this acreage we'll own for a long time and we're going to be a player in unconventional resources in a big way in the future.*


and for the people who dont get what the giant conocophillips are talking about..

its pure and simple really.. they are talking about the exact same play that adi is currently exploring. with TCEI a jvp partner with conocophillips as well as having a small jvp called sugarloaf AMI  with adi. 

its all happening in 2009 for them and i would hope that adi also shares some success in the eagleford.


----------



## Hatchy

AgentM,
Thanks for the research over the last few das, very interesting. 

Having a read of that transcript - it reminds me of how Steve Jobs talks about his next greatest product - they are full of enthusiasm about the eagleford... that's so good to see. 

I don't get why some people are selling down at this point. We may see 5c today. Wish i'd held out when I topped up at 30c. 

It seems as though all the Giants in oil and gas are putting aside projects just to be able to explore the eagleford. This surely has to come to the attention of the market. I guess small caps will just continue to be hammered. 

I don't think it matters for those holding long term. In my opinion we'll see ADI firm up it's position in texas, but will spend some cash doing so, which hopefully will be made back if the flow rates of Kennedy become what the neighbours have. We may still not see price movement though, but let it flow let it flow let it flow. 

I hope that 4mil from Yemen is enough. I know I didn't have the cash to support this recent raising. Did anyone else?


Hatchy


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> AgentM,
> Thanks for the research over the last few das, very interesting.
> 
> Having a read of that transcript - it reminds me of how Steve Jobs talks about his next greatest product - they are full of enthusiasm about the eagleford... that's so good to see.
> 
> I don't get why some people are selling down at this point. We may see 5c today. Wish i'd held out when I topped up at 30c.
> 
> It seems as though all the Giants in oil and gas are putting aside projects just to be able to explore the eagleford. This surely has to come to the attention of the market. I guess small caps will just continue to be hammered.
> 
> I don't think it matters for those holding long term. In my opinion we'll see ADI firm up it's position in texas, but will spend some cash doing so, which hopefully will be made back if the flow rates of Kennedy become what the neighbours have. We may still not see price movement though, but let it flow let it flow let it flow.
> 
> I hope that 4mil from Yemen is enough. I know I didn't have the cash to support this recent raising. Did anyone else?
> 
> 
> Hatchy




whats interesting about these wells in this formation is that they appear to be capable of very long sustained flows. they will decline as any well does, then flow far longer than any chalks well ever has. this point has been mentioned many times in the AUT presentations.

all operators with eagleford exposure have got their 2009 plans set in the eagleford. pioneer, apache and petrohawk.. all looking at it and exploring its characteristics.  COP describes their position as being "bookended" with pioneer and apache and petrohawk all neatly around them.. we are literally in the mid section of those players. and totally surrounded by cop and tcei.

I agree the US$4 mill or  AUS$6 mill is plenty for adi. 

there is still more work to be done in yemen on exploration, and plenty of operators are finding yemen very attractive and want some avenue to get exposure in there..

ln terms of todays activity,  $10k in shares today thus far, not much at all.. and obviously the person exiting is getting a whipping.. the buyers are doing a great job..  to exit in no news territory will often pay you dearly imho.. 
small trades and very little turnover in adi shares this year really.. this year so far 142 trades for $173,000 in value..  not really seeing much buying pressure on the adi share,,

imho the progress of adi is best summarised as this..

adi has drilled 4 wells, 1 vertical and 3 horizontals.

the vertical is a candidate for a lateral as it did flow from the eagleford but managed to get water from the buda,,  

the kennedy well is totally cased and the formation sits behind cement. a frac is being designed.

weston is also totally cased and cemented, and is yet to be opened up.

kowalik, is open hole and flows..  is said to be damaged, and these are the flow rates.. Initial production rates of *4.2 mmscfe/d *were observed from this unstimulated well *with rates of 1.4 mmscfe/d recently achieved* 

2 laterals sitting there waiting for a frac, one well flowing but damaged. and also expecting some form of stimulation there..

its been said by all partners that they can see potential upsides in all the wells, and i have not seen any eagleford wells flowing open hole, all are being fraced with 10 or 12 stage multifracs.. so its likely there is some truth in the potential for these wells to flow at much greater rates..

but its great to see conoco being the last to come clean on the eagleford.


----------



## hashertu

Agentm.  Slightly off topic.
Can an operator start drilling in Texas before getting an RRC approved drilling permit?  Drilling in this sense means drill bit making a hole in the ground rather than surface preparations.
TIA


----------



## Agentm

is possible to drill without a permit? 

if you did it, and struck oil or gas and then sold it on the market you would be charged with the various criminal offenses that come with it.

the purpose of the process is to firstly have a lease signed over to you, then you have to get a permit, and once the RRC looks at all the possible complications and sees that all the correct documents are in order, it will approve the permit. things like ground water has to be protected so any one contemplating drilling without rrc compliance would be in severe trouble for sure..

to drill without one would be something else, if you could get a drilling outfit to do it would be a task in itself, and to think you could get away with it with all the paperwork that comes with sales to the pipeline, imho it would be somethiong that you could not get away with for long..   it could also mean that the completed well would be awarded to the landowner as a penalty and if the operator had a leased from you, it would in all likelihood forfeit its capacity to stake any claim to it. i think any sales from the well would also be paid back to the landowner 100%.. 

very risky to do, i doubt if anyone would attempt it..


----------



## Agentm

from the st mary presentation from the Howard Weil 37th Annual Energy Conference yesterday.

they have a JVP with  TXCO and Anadarko as well as their own acreages there.

still as upbeat on the eagleford. the recent well tested is about 2500 feet, similar rates to the TCEI/COP wells a few miles away


----------



## estseon

Hi agent,

just wondered if it could be clarified a bit.

At its peak, Kennedy (the only Block B well in the Shale so far as I am aware - ignoring SL-1) produced 25 boepd per 100ft. That was calculated equating 10,000 cu ft of gas = 1 Barrel.

That production rate has tailed off significantly - wrong fracc design.

If the horizontal referred to in the presentation paper is 2,500 ft long and tested at 6mm, that is almost spot on that initial flow at Kennedy: 24 boepd/100ft.

Presumably, they used the right fracc design and their well has remained open.

However, we have not seen any other Eagleford disclosed flow results although you refer to TCEI/COP wellS. Marlene Olson is an Eagleford vertical that EME has an interest in but nothing has been reported. So, are you saying that COP/TCEI has an Eagleford fracc design that works?

Could a re-work and new multi-stage fracc of Kennedy be the next TCEI Block B operation?


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> Hi agent,
> 
> just wondered if it could be clarified a bit.
> 
> At its peak, Kennedy (the only Block B well in the Shale so far as I am aware - ignoring SL-1) produced 25 boepd per 100ft. That was calculated equating 10,000 cu ft of gas = 1 Barrel.
> 
> That production rate has tailed off significantly - wrong fracc design.
> 
> If the horizontal referred to in the presentation paper is 2,500 ft long and tested at 6mm, that is almost spot on that initial flow at Kennedy: 24 boepd/100ft.
> 
> Presumably, they used the right fracc design and their well has remained open.
> 
> However, we have not seen any other Eagleford disclosed flow results although you refer to TCEI/COP wellS. Marlene Olson is an Eagleford vertical that EME has an interest in but nothing has been reported. So, are you saying that COP/TCEI has an Eagleford fracc design that works?
> 
> Could a re-work and new multi-stage fracc of Kennedy be the next TCEI Block B operation?





estseon, the questions you ask are difficult for an investor to know.

TCEI/conocophillips in live oak have the following wells drilled.

Kunde 1, Kunde 2, Kunde 3,  Baker 1, Baker 2, Marlene Olsen,  Olsen Baker and lastly Lasca Butler Searcy.

Now of them EME have been involved in 5 wells. and marlene olsen, which is a vertical well testing the eagleford, was fracced months ago, i knew about it in january. but as you know the shareholders are not updated in the UK on that at all, i think on the asx you would find reporting is required on things like fracture stimulation of wells. you could also draw a conclusion that EME is not being informed of events on their wells at the moment. I know of other operational things that also are not being reported by eme..  my own view is that eme is limited in their knowledge of operations in live oak currently as i cant comprehend why an update wouldnt be made if they had the information in hand about the potential production from the vertical well or whether they will put a lateral into that well in the future....

regarding the frac on kunde 3, it was on an 1800 foot section of the well. if its on rock that is not naturally fractured, then its promising, but the result is to what many competitors are getting, but what is interesting is that petrohawk and swift a few weeks ago as well as apache and anadarko are claiming very high rates off their multi stage frac designs. i have not seen the completion reports on kunde 3 so i cant comment on the current frac design, i have seen the completion reports on quite a few of the competitors, and if conoco is following their path i have to see any evidence of it, and if conoco is changing their views on how to frac their wells we will be the last to know.

one thing is certain, TCEI/conoco  is nearly replicating some of the very impressive results of their competitors and we have yet to see any announcements or evidence of them using multi stage frac techniques as well.. conoco at the moment is completely in a different ball park when it comes to frac processes.


the rigs have completed 2 wells for conoco this week, and one will go to bordovsky and finish the lateral to the east of our acreages, and the other will drill one of the eskew wells on live oak.

the new pipeline is going in everywhere in live oak, and i know kunde 3 is being worked on a lot, so its not just on the sales pipeline and producing, there must be issues there at kunde 3 imho..

still a very high risk high reward investment, and the obvious thing needed is for jvp to move forward on the laterals. but when??

my view is that they are getting closer to understanding this formation and swift have really cracked it open a few miles away in mcmullen county, 10.4 mmcfpd/e, and keeping a close eye on that one as well as the petrohawk well next to it

the delay in opening the laterals up right now are very much justified. i think the wait will increase the  probability to deliver commercial success there..


----------



## estseon

Thanks for your comment, agentm.

The February production reports filed by Burlington on RRC show Marlene producing at about 2/3rds the rate of Kunde 1, their original vertical. We don't know whether that is a result for the full month but there was no condensate on site reported for the beginning of the month, so possibly not. EME advised in its Interims (mid December 2008) that testing on Marlene would be the lower 2 zones, both described in that report as Eagleford. EME has said nothing about this well since that interim report. It is possible that EME's interest in that well may have been terminated when the TCEI agreement was terminated (reported 9 January).


----------



## Agentm

pioneers recent howard weil presentation

again they mention the work they are doing, with a frac of their well in dewitt county in april 09, and they mention the pending frac of the petrohawk wells in lassalle and mcmullen


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Like your last post.  Looks like the Eagleford is showing how expansive it is.  The potential for my area in Dewitt is looking better, and better every day!!!  Once again thanks for the coverage Agentm!

Jestex


----------



## Agentm

hey jestex..

it does look like dewitt is going to be a busy place for the eagleford, with pioneer on side of the fault and conoco and everyone else having a lot of the region north of it....

some pictures of the live oak wells conocophillips are drilling and completing

lasca butler searcy






kunde 1






kunde 3






kunde 3 flaring earlier this month as operations continue on the well


----------



## Lucky_Country

Still here just waiting on news and slowly accumulating.

I would like to hear what they plan to do with there existing well and in what kind of timeframe they intend to do it in.

I have been watching a few shares with SPP they all seem to be selling at very low prices with directors participating they must surely know the bottom of the cycle and are snapping them up at bargin prices.

ADI management have put there cash forward Im sure they are not in the business of good money after bad.

All taking time but Im sure we will be rewarded definately more upside than downside here.


----------



## estseon

Brilliant photos. I haven't seen a sky like that since last year.

At some time, the operator will be unplugging the bottom 900 ft of Kunde 3 and flowing it with the recently fracced top 1,800 ft. EME should report revised flow figures once they have done that.


----------



## Agentm

eme release today

RNS Number : 8456P
Empyrean Energy PLC
31 March 2009

31 March 2009
Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))




Salary sacrifice and grant of options


Empyrean today announces that certain directors and management have agreed to take 30% of their current salaries in equity for the next 12 months. The move to take a percentage of salary as equity has been initiated by the directors because they believe that the Company is presently undervalued. The foregone salaries will be converted to equity at the same price as the recent capital raisings at 3p. The amount of foregone salary totals GBP84,960 and along with the Company's GBP900,000 raised in recent placings puts the Company in a stronger financial position to development its assets. The conversion to equity will result in the issue of 2,832,000 new ordinary shares. These new shares will also be subject to an orderly market arrangement with Blue Oar Securities for a period of 12 months.


The salary to equity conversion has been performed under existing share
allotment authorities, and the new shares issued will equate to 2.94% of the
enlarged issued share capital of the Company following allotment.


The company has also resolved to grant options over 3,700,000 ordinary shares of  0.2p each in the Company to its management. The options will be granted with an exercise price of GBP0.04 per share. All options will expire 3 years from the date of the grant.


----------



## Lucky_Country

I see AOE today paid $400 million for BPT's CSM project in QLD, now these figures amaze me for CSM projects but also get me thinking what is someone willing to pay for ADI's acerage in Texas.

Its a proven oil and gas play in the worlds thirstiest  energy country surrounded by Conoco drilling furiously for the oil and gas.

ADI must be ranked as very very cheap just needs a bit of a push to get the sp going.


----------



## resourceboom

Mate theres still plenty of potential for adi's tenements, but until they can prove they've cracked the kane, the mkt will attribute almost no value to the project..... 



Lucky_Country said:


> I see AOE today paid $400 million for BPT's CSM project in QLD, now these figures amaze me for CSM projects but also get me thinking what is someone willing to pay for ADI's acerage in Texas.
> 
> Its a proven oil and gas play in the worlds thirstiest  energy country surrounded by Conoco drilling furiously for the oil and gas.
> 
> ADI must be ranked as very very cheap just needs a bit of a push to get the sp going.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

Very worrying now one of the JV’s price has plummeted to new depths. In sterling EME was 160p and now it is just 3.25p. That is a 98% drop in the value of the share price. All we seem to get is EME confetti share placements. RNS news has stopped. 

Today yet another 6% was taken from the share price. Considering all the graphs, charts, pictures and hype, is it not time someone asked if we are being told JV fairy tales.


----------



## Agentm

resourceboom said:


> Mate theres still plenty of potential for adi's tenements, but until they can prove they've cracked the kane, the mkt will attribute almost no value to the project.....




hey resource

certainly right about the adi share not being given any value for their acreages and production from the sugarkane.  

its not like operations on the TCEI/conocophillips jvp on the 300,000 + acreages is standing still. a lateral in bordovski is being drilled right now, which is a few miles east of our acreages.  and another well in live oak next to the baker wells is being drilled by conocophillips. eskew west 1h


2 completed wells sit behind casing and cement, that being kennedy and weston.  Kowalik is open hole and damaged and on production and will be attended with further completions and workover.. so adi is a producer of sorts..

there are many conoco wells on production currently. and its a waiting game for our jvp at the moment. all three wells need to be stimulated and tested further..


----------



## noco

Agent M , ADI stocks hit an all time low today.
How much more pain do you think shareholders will suffer?
Are the JVP waiting for  the price of oil to rise above $60?


----------



## Agentm

those are questions best asked to the directors.

my view is that the next month will see some activity..

in the uk the eme share rose 24% last night off 7.6 million shares

something is obviously happening..


----------



## Lucky_Country

I would rather have a low shareprice in these uncertain times than a company in administration.

The directors have achieved great results in the saleof Yemen and raising capital for futher activities in SL. In the process stabalising the companies future.

Timing is everything no point spending cash if results dont achieve a profit with a low oil price and what were high drilling costs.

The shareprice is a concern for existing holders but a great entry for new investors.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

EME increased by 24% or 0.8p. Peanuts. EME has lost 98% of its value in the past few months. A 24% increase is pityful when holders have seen such a massive loss in their investment. Another 18,000% increase and we might recover our losses.

.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> I would rather have a low shareprice in these uncertain times than a company in administration.
> 
> The directors have achieved great results in the saleof Yemen and raising capital for futher activities in SL. In the process stabalising the companies future.
> 
> Timing is everything no point spending cash if results dont achieve a profit with a low oil price and what were high drilling costs.
> 
> The shareprice is a concern for existing holders but a great entry for new investors.





the share is lower than cash value right now. and as stated, at an all time low.

the kowalik well is producing some small revenue for adi, and will achieve higher rates after it is properly worked and tested. the other two wells have not been tested. $50 - $60 oil makes shale viable. and i agree that TCEI is waiting for the results on their wells with conoco in live oak and elsewhere before opening up their well they have with us.. makes sense to me, Conoco have superior departments than this small jvp have, i cant imagine TCEI wanting to crack open its wells until some good understandings are concluded from the many laterals currently being tested and about to be tested by TCEI/conoco..   imho the jvp are in total agreement on that..

i think adi had every intention of farming out according to their last presentation. and i noticed that none of the jvp partners are announcing anything on the play at all. so their intention to wait and see how the regional wells play out with their completions is obviously still the plan.

plenty of good turnover with the jvp partner eme last night which indicates some value is being seen there, a 24% increase in the share price and plenty of shares traded. i hope we see some increases one day with adi, there was a lot of selling yesterday, and equally there was plenty of cash there from the buyers who i think did well out of it.


----------



## estseon

Re EME, maybe the market overhang is cleared and investors are remembering that the directors waived 30% of their remuneration for shares issued at 3p. The recovery in the oil price may be helping sentiment and there could be bargain hunters sniffing around. There was also a rumour going around about a potential bid but no explanation of why a predator might want EME's bits and pieces. Some other poster even suggested hedge funds - the whole MKT CAP is less than the income tax payable by some hedge fund managers on their annual bonuses, so I don't buy that one either. The only form of take-out that makes any sense to me would be COP buying in TCEI's interest in the Live Oak acreage. TCEI would then have to settle with EME and EME might then talk to the other JVPs about buying in a few % in the AMI.

Buzz:  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/banghead.gif


----------



## Hatchy

Here's a little bit of news on one of ADI's mates:



Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation has given formal notice to NYSE Amex, LLC (the 'Exchange') of the Company's intention to voluntarily delist its common stock from the NYSE Alternext ('Alternext') market.
 On April 9, 2009, the Company received a letter from the Exchange, which stated the following:
"The staff of the Exchange's Corporate Compliance Department (the "Staff") has determined based upon its review of publicly available information that Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation (the "Company" or "Aurora") does not meet certain of the Exchange's continued listing standards as set forth in Part 10 of the NYSE Amex Company Guide (the "Company Guide"; accessible at www.nyse.com/regulation), and the Company has therefore become subject to the procedures and requirements of Section 1009 of the Company Guide. Specifically, the Company is not in compliance with Section 1003(a)(iv) of the Company Guide in that it has sustained losses which are so substantial in relation to its overall operations or its existing financial resources, or its financial condition has become so impaired that it appears questionable, in the opinion of the Exchange, as to whether the Company will be able to continue operations and/or meet its obligations as they mature."
 These factors, together with the Company's internal objectives to pursue cost savings measures, have led Aurora's Board of Directors to pursue voluntary delisting from the Alternext and not take any action to maintain its Exchange listing. The Company will take appropriate actions for its common stock to be quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board.
 Aurora anticipates that it will provide notification (Form 25) to the Securities and Exchange Commission on or around April 27, 2009. The Company further anticipates that the last day of trading of its common stock on the NYSE Alternext will be on or around May 6, 2009.


----------



## martyfar

Hatchy said:


> Here's a little bit of news on one of ADI's mates:
> 
> 
> 
> Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation has given formal notice to NYSE Amex, LLC (the 'Exchange') of the Company's intention to voluntarily delist its common stock from the NYSE Alternext ('Alternext') market.
> On April 9, 2009, the Company received a letter from the Exchange, which stated the following:
> "The staff of the Exchange's Corporate Compliance Department (the "Staff") has determined based upon its review of publicly available information that Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation (the "Company" or "Aurora") does not meet certain of the Exchange's continued listing standards as set forth in Part 10 of the NYSE Amex Company Guide (the "Company Guide"; accessible at www.nyse.com/regulation), and the Company has therefore become subject to the procedures and requirements of Section 1009 of the Company Guide. Specifically, the Company is not in compliance with Section 1003(a)(iv) of the Company Guide in that it has sustained losses which are so substantial in relation to its overall operations or its existing financial resources, or its financial condition has become so impaired that it appears questionable, in the opinion of the Exchange, as to whether the Company will be able to continue operations and/or meet its obligations as they mature."
> These factors, together with the Company's internal objectives to pursue cost savings measures, have led Aurora's Board of Directors to pursue voluntary delisting from the Alternext and not take any action to maintain its Exchange listing. The Company will take appropriate actions for its common stock to be quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board.
> Aurora anticipates that it will provide notification (Form 25) to the Securities and Exchange Commission on or around April 27, 2009. The Company further anticipates that the last day of trading of its common stock on the NYSE Alternext will be on or around May 6, 2009.





Hey Hatchy.... I read with interest you post re. AUT,  ...  what do you see as the implications / meaning of this move in relation to AUT's continued viability in the Sugarloaf developement ?


----------



## Agentm

martyfar said:


> Hey Hatchy.... I read with interest you post re. AUT,  ...  what do you see as the implications / meaning of this move in relation to AUT's continued viability in the Sugarloaf developement ?




i would first be checking the details a little closer.

my view is that its the wrong company and never had a partnership with adi..

Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation Announces Year-End 2008 Results

TRAVERSE CITY, MICHIGAN, March 13, 2009 – Aurora Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE Alternext US: AOG) today reported a net loss of $107.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2008, largely related to one-time non-cash items. 

William W. Deneau, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "This has been a challenging year for our business and the economy at large.  When we entered 2008, we anticipated a favorable conclusion to our strategic alternatives process.  Instead, the year presented a strong headwind of limited capital resources, global credit challenges, and weakening energy markets.  I believe 2009 will present more of the same.  Fortunately, our team has been working to 'batten down the hatches' since the beginning of 2008 and we will continue working diligently to weather this storm."

http://www.auroraogc.com/News_and_Events.htm


AUT, the partner in the sugarkane is not listed on any other exchange,  only eme from the UK is liked on the AIM in london.


----------



## Hatchy

martyfar said:


> Hey Hatchy.... I read with interest you post re. AUT,  ...  what do you see as the implications / meaning of this move in relation to AUT's continued viability in the Sugarloaf developement ?




Sorry Martyfar - my mistake, as AgentM pointed out there's two Aurora Oil and Gas's

1 - Aurora Oil and Gas Corp.
2 - Aurora Oil and Gas Limtd. (aussies)

Apologies to all.


----------



## Agentm

pioneer and swift both did presentations yesterday.  swift spoke about the eagleford and is planning a well in the near future.  pioneer continues to go forward on their R&D on the eagleford.. testing the well in dewitt county this month.

conocophillips continues to drill the bordovsky well in our county (karnes) near by and the live oak wells are ready for testing and they are drilling the eskew west 1h


----------



## Agentm

this from petrohawk..

http://www.petrohawk.com/news/?id=1278493



Eagle Ford Shale

In South Texas, Petrohawk has leased approximately 160,000 contiguous net acres prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale in LaSalle and McMullen counties. This area has been recognized by the Texas Railroad Commission as "Hawkville Field." During the first quarter, Petrohawk operated one horizontal rig in the play and recently added a second rig. Three wells were drilled and two were completed during the quarter. The Donnell #1H was completed on February 20th at a rate of 3.6 Mmcf/d and 395 barrels of condensate per day (Bc/d), or 6.1 Mmcfe/d, on a 19/64" choke with 3585# flowing casing pressure. The Brown Trust #1H was completed on March 26th at a rate of 8.1 Mmcf/d and 200 Bc/d (9.3 Mmcfe/d) on a 24/64" choke with 4210# flowing casing pressure. *Production data from the four wells completed to date indicates lower initial annual decline rates, and a flatter hyperbolic decline, than those observed in other shale plays.*

Petrohawk is encouraged by analysis of core samples from two of the wells drilled to date. The Company recognizes a trend across the field from southwest to northeast of increasing condensate yield, from no condensate production from the Dora Martin #1H to a yield of approximately 110 barrels per million cubic feet of gas from the Donnell #1H, with a distance of approximately 30 miles between the two wells. The Eagle Ford Shale has been encountered in all five wells from between approximately 11,000' and 11,700' true vertical depth.

Other encouraging aspects of the core analysis of these two wells include the following: average total organic content (TOC) between 4.4% and 4.7%; total porosity ranges between 9.4% and 10.7% average permeability ranges between 1,110 and 1,280 nanodarcies; gas saturation ranges between 83% and 85%; and estimated free gas in place per section between 180 and 210 Bcf.
*These measurements, as they relate to other shale plays, suggest that the Eagle Ford Shale in this particular area is one of the highest quality shale reservoirs discovered to date in the United States.*


*Based on gas in place data derived from the core analysis, along with the performance of wells completed to date, Petrohawk is raising its internally estimated ultimate recovery assumption for wells in this play to a midpoint of 5.5 Bcfe per well, with a range of 4 to 7 Bcfe/well.
*
Drilling efficiencies already achieved in the play highlight the economic potential of the Eagle Ford Shale, relative even to other efficient properties in the Company's portfolio, such as the Haynesville Shale. Drilling and completion costs have been reduced by approximately 60% from the first well drilled to the most recent well completed. The first three wells drilled in the play, which were all drilled with pilot holes, whole cores and intermediate casing set, averaged 53 days from spud to rig release. The fourth well, which did not have a pilot hole drilled but did set intermediate casing, was drilled to total depth in 32 days. The fifth well, which also did not require a pilot hole but did not have intermediate casing set, was drilled to total depth in 22 days. An improvement in well design has eliminated the need for intermediate casing going forward. *Average drilling and completion costs for Eagle Ford Shale wells in Hawkville Field are currently ranging from $4.5 million to $5.5 million.*


----------



## Agentm

the petrohawk presentation reveals a lot of information that our jvp partnership have not been so forthcoming with, well logs are very good indicators of whats in the rock. and the work they have done on these 4 wells they have drilled and the two they are currently drilling really puts the eagleford into a good light, particularly in our region, it seems to be improving when they compare it to their wells further west. they include arrows indicating which direction they see the eagleford improving, and when you compare the results of the conoco wells, its clear that they are drawing conclusion based on results not assumptions.. the condensate gets better where we are..

these slides are extremely interesting..


----------



## blues

Petrohawk seem to be having good success and makes our play look better. I know a few of the JVP's are looking at farming out some of their interest, good idea to get Petrohawk involved as they are having more success than we are!


----------



## Broadside

blues said:


> Petrohawk seem to be having good success and makes our play look better. I know a few of the JVP's are looking at farming out some of their interest, good idea to get Petrohawk involved as they are having more success than we are!




they should look at that, better that than Conoco letting them bleed dry before taking over the acreage....if there is something of value there why not get on the front foot and have a competitive situation not a fire sale.


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> Petrohawk seem to be having good success and makes our play look better. I know a few of the JVP's are looking at farming out some of their interest, good idea to get Petrohawk involved as they are having more success than we are!




blues..

in lasalle county, further west..

Browns trust  8.1mmcfpd and 395 BOPD
STS 1H         7.6mmcfpd and 250 BOPD

in mcmullen county, closer to us and to east of the lasalle wells

Donna Minerals 1H  3.8 mmcfpd and 395 BOPD

practically half the gas but the same oil...

when you get to live oak and karnes its 250 BOPD per 1mmcfpd

you would think that one day the penny will drop,, adi sit on very good acreages.. 

broadside, the TCEi were done over mnay years, and often come up for renewal.. conocophillips have thus far never approached the landowners that have leased to TCEI.. i see lots of renewals on leases in our acreages and none have gone to conocophillips, all have remained in the hands of our jvp.. and vise versa, the land owners holding out in the region that are in the region of the conoco acreages in live oak are not being approached by TCEI..
i cant find any evidence of what you saying, and i assure you i check all the time.. have you got any references to guide me where you are seeing this happen?  TIA..


----------



## Broadside

hi agentm, what I mean is, conoco can just sit and wait at their leisure unless the JVPs hit paydirt soon...at the moment EKA and AUT are getting bled of cash...they should at least try and get value for a farm in rather than wait till the coffers are totally dry....ie get an auction rather than a firesale....if value is there and other parties recognise it the JVPs should be proactive rather than waiting till their options have run out.  That's just my take...I don't have evidence but it seems like common sense.


----------



## Agentm

Agentm said:


> this from petrohawk..
> 
> http://www.petrohawk.com/news/?id=1278493
> 
> 
> 
> Eagle Ford Shale
> 
> In South Texas, Petrohawk has leased approximately 160,000 contiguous net acres prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale in LaSalle and McMullen counties. This area has been recognized by the Texas Railroad Commission as "Hawkville Field." During the first quarter, Petrohawk operated one horizontal rig in the play and recently added a second rig. Three wells were drilled and two were completed during the quarter. The Donnell #1H was completed on February 20th at a rate of 3.6 Mmcf/d and 395 barrels of condensate per day (Bc/d), or 6.1 Mmcfe/d, on a 19/64" choke with 3585# flowing casing pressure. The Brown Trust #1H was completed on March 26th at a rate of 8.1 Mmcf/d and 200 Bc/d (9.3 Mmcfe/d) on a 24/64" choke with 4210# flowing casing pressure. *Production data from the four wells completed to date indicates lower initial annual decline rates, and a flatter hyperbolic decline, than those observed in other shale plays.*
> 
> Petrohawk is encouraged by analysis of core samples from two of the wells drilled to date. The Company recognizes a trend across the field from southwest to northeast of increasing condensate yield, from no condensate production from the Dora Martin #1H to a yield of approximately 110 barrels per million cubic feet of gas from the Donnell #1H, with a distance of approximately 30 miles between the two wells. The Eagle Ford Shale has been encountered in all five wells from between approximately 11,000' and 11,700' true vertical depth.
> 
> Other encouraging aspects of the core analysis of these two wells include the following: average total organic content (TOC) between 4.4% and 4.7%; total porosity ranges between 9.4% and 10.7% average permeability ranges between 1,110 and 1,280 nanodarcies; gas saturation ranges between 83% and 85%; and estimated free gas in place per section between 180 and 210 Bcf.
> *These measurements, as they relate to other shale plays, suggest that the Eagle Ford Shale in this particular area is one of the highest quality shale reservoirs discovered to date in the United States.*
> 
> 
> *Based on gas in place data derived from the core analysis, along with the performance of wells completed to date, Petrohawk is raising its internally estimated ultimate recovery assumption for wells in this play to a midpoint of 5.5 Bcfe per well, with a range of 4 to 7 Bcfe/well.
> *
> Drilling efficiencies already achieved in the play highlight the economic potential of the Eagle Ford Shale, relative even to other efficient properties in the Company's portfolio, such as the Haynesville Shale. Drilling and completion costs have been reduced by approximately 60% from the first well drilled to the most recent well completed. The first three wells drilled in the play, which were all drilled with pilot holes, whole cores and intermediate casing set, averaged 53 days from spud to rig release. The fourth well, which did not have a pilot hole drilled but did set intermediate casing, was drilled to total depth in 32 days. The fifth well, which also did not require a pilot hole but did not have intermediate casing set, was drilled to total depth in 22 days. An improvement in well design has eliminated the need for intermediate casing going forward. *Average drilling and completion costs for Eagle Ford Shale wells in Hawkville Field are currently ranging from $4.5 million to $5.5 million.*






Agentm said:


> the petrohawk presentation reveals a lot of information that our jvp partnership have not been so forthcoming with, well logs are very good indicators of whats in the rock. and the work they have done on these 4 wells they have drilled and the two they are currently drilling really puts the eagleford into a good light, particularly in our region, it seems to be improving when they compare it to their wells further west. they include arrows indicating which direction they see the eagleford improving, and when you compare the results of the conoco wells, its clear that they are drawing conclusion based on results not assumptions.. the condensate gets better where we are..
> 
> these slides are extremely interesting..






Broadside said:


> hi agentm, what I mean is, conoco can just sit and wait at their leisure unless the JVPs hit paydirt soon...at the moment EKA and AUT are getting bled of cash...they should at least try and get value for a farm in rather than wait till the coffers are totally dry....ie get an auction rather than a firesale....if value is there and other parties recognise it the JVPs should be proactive rather than waiting till their options have run out.  That's just my take...I don't have evidence but it seems like common sense.




i think the idea of the jvp was for a few small caps to get into a world class play. but the ability to churn through the years it takes and to to be liquid at the end has taken its toll on some jvp members. i dont know what aut and eka are doing, but i think it matters little, the play is being touted by all operators now as legitimate and there is very strong evidence the region we are in is close to the best acreages seen thus far..

eme has increased its stake in a farm in with TCEI on a number of live oak wells, and it turned very sour there..  

AUT has increased its acreages considerably, and it needs to fund 2 wells at 100% cost to keep that acreage. i struggle to see them funding it at this stage and i guess its possibly looking to farm out right now or face having to raise capital to the tune of $12+ mill

You mentioned EKA, i gather its not sitting of a fat wallet either, 

We know adi is not at all concerned with cash flow, it has sold one asset and has no cash concerns at the moment.

TCEI has the leases with the jvp..

Conocophillips has a jvp with TCEI, and i cant see them starving out anyone, so far conoco has been extremely active in their exploration and appraisal program, which commenced with the burlington resources discovery well of kunde 1 in 2006.. three years later they have drilled 6 horizontals and 2 further verticals next to that well, and in kanes county one horizontal (currently drilled) and in dewitt they have 3 verticals and perhaps one horizontal.. hardly waiting for anything imho.. full steam ahead really.. and  they have 2 rigs dedicated to the eagleford.  one drilling in live oak one in karnes county.

pioneer have halted all drilling in the edwards and only one rig is being used on the eagleford..

petrohawk have 2 rigs drilling exclusively on the eagleford.

weber (in dewitt county) have 2 rigs drilling right now on the eagleford.

anadarko are drilling and are apache..

to me i see all operators doing extensive drilling and exploration on the eagleford. TCEI has spent a lot of capital on the leases and on their JVP with conocophillips and on their jvp with ADI..

I cant see how conocophillips can be doing he things you see, i see conoco and TCEI doing the majority of drilling and our jvp right now playing a very conservative role of wait and see on many regional wells to determine how to efficiently forge ahead..


----------



## Agentm

adi never released the logs for sugarlaof 1, but couch oil did and it soon found its way around the traps..


this is a sugarlaof 1 logs and the open hole log from petrohawk..


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Your last three posts were great!!  Some good information on the activities taking place in South Texas and the Eagleford.  If these trends continue it will be interesting to see what lies in Karnes and Dewitt County.  The potential looks good though!!!


----------



## Agentm

jestex12 said:


> Agentm,
> 
> Your last three posts were great!!  Some good information on the activities taking place in South Texas and the Eagleford.  If these trends continue it will be interesting to see what lies in Karnes and Dewitt County.  The potential looks good though!!!




jestex

watch out.. petrohawk are on the prowl, they just took a stake on the AZZ land..

imho there is a lot going on and a lot of operators want eagleford land..

some of these small caps have some great acreages,,

interesting movements on AUT today..  early birds arriving perhaps?


----------



## seasprite

This is an interesting video that ties in with Obama's plan to reduce reliance on oil imports (that he goes on and on about, in every speech) . CEO of Chesapeake Energy talking of gas . I couldn't copy the link so you will have to search for it at this site http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-us and search for "Betting on Natural Gas"


----------



## Agentm

Please note the below is paraphrased into bullet points from the Petrohawk Energy Corporation

First Quarter 2009 Operational Update:

*1. Petrohawk has leased approximately 160,000 contiguous net acres prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale in LaSalle and McMullen counties and the area is now recognised by the Texas Railroad Commission as Hawkville Field.*

2. Petrohawk has been operating one rig in the play and has *now increased this to two.*

3. The production history from four wells completed to date indicates lower initial annual decline rates and a *flatter hyperbolic decline which is a very positive production characteristic and superior to those observed in other shale plays.*

4. Analysis of the available data indicates a trend across the field from southwest to northeast of increasing condensate yield with the Eagle Ford Shale having been encountered from true vertical depths of approximately 11,000’ to 11,700’. 

5. The Eagle Ford Shale is a highly calcareous organic shale beneath the Austin Chalk with very high average total organic gas filled porosities in excess of 10% and very low water saturations.

6. *Estimated free gas in place per section (1 section = 640acres) between 180 and 210 Bcf.*

7. *Tabulated data available suggests the Eagle Ford Shale in this particular area is one of the highest quality shale reservoirs discovered to date in the United States.*

8. Petrohawk has raise its internally estimated ultimate recovery assumption for wells in this play to a midpoint of 5.5 Bcfe per well, with a range of 4 to 7 Bcfe per well.

9. Eagle Ford Shale wells on average are currently ranging from $4.5 million to $5.5 million for drilling and completion costs with the latest well designs allowing total depth to be achieved in as little as 22 days.

10. *Petrohawk has a 1 billion dollar capital budget for 2009 and expects increased activity levels in the Eagle Ford Shale.
*
Furthermore, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has recently announced that it has amassed a 300,000 net acreage position in the Eagle Ford in South Texas, while St. Mary Land & Exploration Company (NYSE:SM) is acquiring up to 210,000 net acres realising the potential of this new resource play.

Antares is extremely pleased to be involved with a company of Petrohawk’s calibre and successful history. Antares is encouraged by the above activity adjacent to its 8,200 acre Yellow Rose position and will thoroughly evaluate the Eagle Ford in its initial Yellow Rose well.


----------



## estseon

The Petrohawk slide talks about 156,000 acres and 1,500 locations. If they mean that they envisage drilling 1 well per 100 acres, each having a mean recovery of 5.5bcf, that has significant valuation implications for our acreage, particularly as ours is likely to have a richer condensate yield. Applying their estimates to our 23,161 acres suggests 1.27tcf recoverable.

The currently producing Austin Chalks may be in addition.


----------



## hashertu

Agentm.  Thanks for responding to previous O/T.
Can I ask another?  
If you wanted to find out about Atascosa Exploration LLC, San Antonio, how would you set about it?  The obvious google search yields nothing.
(This question relates to Vialogy who are trialling some seismic image enhancement software in Texas). 

TIA


----------



## kpas

No offense, but as a previous holder of ADI I find it amazing to see the same names on this thread.

Do the true believers still think there is a future for this company?


----------



## Agentm

hashhertu

pm me if you want to discuss off topic things

kpas.. what is a true believer?  sounds religious..


conoco has built a second pipeline in live oak and is drilling development wells one after the other.. latest permit next to the baker wells... baker 3


----------



## estseon

From the plan, it seems that they are intent on drilling at 90 degrees to the line of the trend, which seems to be WSW to ENE (as shown in the Petrohawk slides) like the Bakers, Lasca Butler, Olson Baker, Kunde 4, Kunde 3.

Eskew East, however, appears to be along the trend.


----------



## buzzbuzz100

Lots of graphs, hype and uncomfirmed news. We have had months and months of the same. Meanwhile the share prices have gone down and down and down. You can be certain anyone questioning for proof in their sending of private messaging to our agent will result in being blocked by the reciever.

.


----------



## Agentm

http://www.dailymarkets.com/contributor/2009/04/20/natural-gas-is-ready-to-rally/

its interesting that with the price of gas at the shut in price, where its no longer profitable to drill wells and sell it, there is either of two ways the price can go.. down and all is over for explorers and most oil companies,  or up??

natural gas prices dropped as low as $3.50 per million British thermal units (BTUs).


15 million BTUs of natural gas to buy one barrel of oil

historically the ratio is 10-1 

past decade 8-1 

15-to-1 ratio is the most extreme reading of the past 20 years. This means one of two things has to be true: Either oil is too expensive or natural gas is too cheap.

\\\\


imho there is also a consensus that oil may go up.. if that happens its hard to imagine the gas price still trending down

conoco is primarily interested in the shale.. for the oil..

petrohawk thinks about the eagleford in this manner

Petrohawk Energy Corp., Houston, recently announced the discovery of large gas reserves in LaSalle and McMullen counties in South Texas from the Cretaceous Eagle Ford shale.

Petrohawk spokesman call the discovery "one of the highest-quality shale reservoirs discovered in the U.S."

The company estimates 5.5 billion cubic feet of gas per well can be recovered.

The Eagle Ford shale has been encountered in all five wells drilled by Petrohawk from 11,000-11,700 feet (true vertical), and average 53 days from spud to rig release at a cost of $4.5 million to $5.5 million per well.



imho interesting days ahead for the eagleford explorers


----------



## Agentm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/125...ngs-call-transcript?page=-1&find="eagle+ford"

We have a very meaningful acreage position in the potential Eagle Ford Shale play area, and we have a number of people interested in that. And we're working with others to potentially take a position, and get some wells drilled.

Unidentified Analyst

I hope I am not the only person here. Could you, just kind of discuss a little bit more in terms of the prospects of selling properties or leases down in order to... your debt problems as far as the opportunities to do so between proven properties on the one hand and your exploratory leases on the other hand?

Paul Ching

*So we are working hard to and I believe that we are potentially close to a deal on our exploratory properties in South Texas which is mainly look at Eagle Ford Shale and then in Chalk, and we have a party that is very interested and we're close to it to deal and actually sell that down. We have been working on our... to sell down our East Texas, Chalk and again we're working in that direction with a party.*

On our main assets as far as selling properties, our main producing assets, we've not lead, we look at the alternatives but we've not come to a conclusion. Yes, we've to do that and I think that depends on the discussions that we're having with the banks. And whether or not we end up having to go in that direction, it is not a preferred direction we would hope that we can work through the borrowing base redetermination with banks and with potentially other kinds of structures, our ability to maintain those properties and keep those in the company and of course as prices improve and for better day.

Unidentified Analyst

*So it sounds clearly as if the, the focus is on your East Texas properties in terms of assisting your liquidity and in regard to the South Texas and Eagle Ford Shale places et cetera on the assumption that you try and maximize a front-end payment out of that what would you expect to retain in the way of working interest in those wells?*

Paul Ching

Larry, we expect to retain about 25% working interest in those wells.

Unidentified Analyst

And get an upfront cash payment?

Paul Ching

And yes, some up front cash payment... and be reimbursed for the laying cost.


----------



## blues

Interesting announcement from AUT after the bell about farmout arrangements for their acreage. Interesting to see if the other jvp's are involved.


----------



## martyfar

blues said:


> Interesting announcement from AUT after the bell about farmout arrangements for their acreage. Interesting to see if the other jvp's are involved.




Yes certainly is an interesting development by AUT, probably to be expected with their obligations re leses they hold and a tight cash flow situation.... anyone care to share their views related to the positive / negative implications for AUT  related to this decision.... and also whether the other JVP's are likely to follow suit ..the market doesn't seem to like it , Aut dropped four cents in yesterday's trade  .........


----------



## estseon

It was TCEI that was the surprise to me, not AUT (which has huge acreage) or EKA (which clearly had cash problems).

However, COP has been forging ahead since EME terminated its special deal with TCEI and there are 5 additional laterals (approved, at least) plus a directional. And there was quite a lot of work done on the 3 producing wells that EME retains an interest in.

That might explain why TCEI is now looking to farm out some of its other acreage. That might also explain why EME had no alternative but to terminate the special agreement.

It is the danger of getting into bed with a substantially bigger corporate with a substantially larger budget and no clause in the agreement enabling the smaller partner to call upon the Goliath to cool it a bit.

The proposal to farm out appears to be necessary but the danger is that the JVPs could get burned out by that new partner coming in as operator. They will just have to have an agreed programme and budget agreed in advance.


----------



## estseon

There was significant volume traded in EME shares (about 7m total - 8% of the SC) and it gathered momentum around US opening. It may mean nothing but it might suggest something happening over on Block A. There was a 50% increase in share price (from miserably low to significantly undervalued (imo)). One might normally point the finger at day traders or momentum traders but not, in my experience, before a bank holiday weekend. Those guys tend not to want open positions even overnight. Nor can one really see it as a continuation of 'normal' trading activity - it was well in excess of that. So, maybe this will be all resolved before October.....


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> There was significant volume traded in EME shares (about 7m total - 8% of the SC) and it gathered momentum around US opening. It may mean nothing but it might suggest something happening over on Block A. There was a 50% increase in share price (from miserably low to significantly undervalued (imo)). One might normally point the finger at day traders or momentum traders but not, in my experience, before a bank holiday weekend. Those guys tend not to want open positions even overnight. Nor can one really see it as a continuation of 'normal' trading activity - it was well in excess of that. So, maybe this will be all resolved before October.....




i was looking at the eka announcement before, one holder has shown purchases of 5,499,000 this year, and in total holds 5,999,000 including dec figures..

doesnt match up with the trading volumes for the share (	3,316,158 shares traded for $116,898 in value)  so i gather its off market tranfers in this also??

appears to be some other risk adverse investors coming into the jvp..


----------



## martyfar

Agentm said:


> i was looking at the eka announcement before, one holder has shown purchases of 5,499,000 this year, and in total holds 5,999,000 including dec figures..
> 
> doesnt match up with the trading volumes for the share (	3,316,158 shares traded for $116,898 in value)  so i gather its off market tranfers in this also??
> 
> appears to be some other risk adverse investors coming into the jvp..




Hi agent

I watch with interest  all the developments associated with the various JVP's.  I hear there's a possibilty that EKA may be contemplating a farmout relationship with  Conocophilips ??  there certainly apears to be some change in "sentiment" (in a positive terms) relatd to this pay in recent times  as evidenced by the increase in the volume of shares traded and SP


----------



## mjam

Long term holder of ADI stock - don't post a lot but appreciate your views. I have not been keeping up to date with other JVP's , but overall the performance of this company over the last 12 months has been poor (to say the least).

Reviewed the last quarterly and in summary : 

*1) Sugarloaf * - seams to be on hold - quote from qtrly " the timing and type of further operations in the sugarloaf area remains dependent upon the detailed design by the operator and agreement of the joint venture partners"

how long and when ?????? 


*2) Yemen- Block 7* - the company needs this deal (US$4m) to come to fruition otherwise it is very weak from a cash flow perspective.

*3) Yemen - Block 74 *- 3d seismic to be carried out late in 2009 - will they have the cash by then to manage this and Sugar ? 

*4) Indonesia *- Fail 

*5) AC/P32 timor* - Fail 

Overall - not a good report card over the last 12 months.

Cashflow - ~$2m in bank and with admin costs of ~$0.5m per qtr and exploration costs of ? - it does not look pretty.

When are management go to make it happen or at least up the ante on sugar ?


----------



## Agentm

mjam said:


> Long term holder of ADI stock - don't post a lot but appreciate your views. I have not been keeping up to date with other JVP's , but overall the performance of this company over the last 12 months has been poor (to say the least).
> 
> Reviewed the last quarterly and in summary :
> 
> *1) Sugarloaf * - seams to be on hold - quote from qtrly " the timing and type of further operations in the sugarloaf area remains dependent upon the detailed design by the operator and agreement of the joint venture partners"
> 
> how long and when ??????
> 
> 
> *2) Yemen- Block 7* - the company needs this deal (US$4m) to come to fruition otherwise it is very weak from a cash flow perspective.
> 
> *3) Yemen - Block 74 *- 3d seismic to be carried out late in 2009 - will they have the cash by then to manage this and Sugar ?
> 
> *4) Indonesia *- Fail
> 
> *5) AC/P32 timor* - Fail
> 
> Overall - not a good report card over the last 12 months.
> 
> Cashflow - ~$2m in bank and with admin costs of ~$0.5m per qtr and exploration costs of ? - it does not look pretty.
> 
> When are management go to make it happen or at least up the ante on sugar ?





i agree on some your sentiments, its all very long winded in terms of timings, but do the adi management have the control of external factors relating to the severe financial constrains on the jvp partners?  i think not.

re the free carried well in timor sea, yes it was a dry hole but it was free carried there.

re indonesia, a complete disaster.. external factors at play there, imho its not easy to conclude it was directly an adi management issue.

yemen deal was outstanding. so i conclude differently to you there, imho adi would be in a vastly different place if it had the cash reserves of say $370k like eka..

i think the sudden turnaround announced by AUT and TCEI and the release a day later by EKA to follow suit has revealed the forward plan.. i suggest reading those reports and draw your own conclusions.


----------



## Agentm

st marys put forward some info about their eagleford operations overnight



In the Maverick Basin in South Texas, the Company is presently drilling in the horizontal lateral of its first operated well targeting the Eagle Ford shale. The Eagle Ford section was cored prior to plugging back and kicking off the lateral and St. Mary intends to conduct a micro-seismic study during fracture stimulation of the well. Three additional horizontal Eagle Ford wells are currently planned for the remainder of 2009. The Company also intends to continue participating in the joint venture targeting the Pearsall and Eagle Ford shales with TXCO Resources and Anadarko Petroleum.


----------



## Agentm

5 May 2009
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

FARMOUT OF SUGARLOAF AMI

Adelphi Energy Limited is pleased to advise that it has entered into arrangements with Texas Crude Energy Inc. (TCEI) to seek a farmout of up to half of Adelphi's 20% interest in the Sugarloaf AMI. TCEI is the Operator of the Sugarloaf AMI and will lead the farmout effort which will involve the assistance of Jefferies, Randall & Dewey, a leading US oil and gas advisor.

Adelphi will now join some of the other joint venture partners in the Sugarloaf AMI to contribute equity to this joint farmout effort which will result in sufficient equity being available to attract a significant E&P company or investor. It is envisaged that the incoming party will earn equity by carrying the farmout parties including Adelphi through a drilling and well stimulation work program in a fixed time-frame. Details of the terms of any farmout will be
advised at the time they are concluded.

Pending finalisation of the farmout arrangements, it is expected that field operations within the Sugarloaf AMI will be limited.

From a strategic perspective, a successful farmout will result in Adelphi retaining meaningful equity in a valuable resource project and be carried through a significant work program with little or no funding by Adelphi. This preservation of capital for Adelphi during the current difficult financial environment is an appropriate strategy at this stage of the development of
the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford plays in the Sugarloaf area. These promising resources must be developed using state of the art horizontal drilling technology and fracture stimulation which have proven to be highly capital intensive during this current early stage of field appraisal and development.
A successful farmout and subsequent aggressive work program will generate significant momentum for the project, as well as allow the leasehold acreage position to be managed proactively.

A farmout of Adelphi's Sugarloaf interest is consistent with the corporate strategy adopted by the Board in late 2008 in light of the deteriorating global capital market conditions - namely to achieve financial security and to create a solid platform for growth once financial conditions improve. The proposed farmout of Sugarloaf in conjunction with the recent agreement to sell Adelphi's Block 7 interest in Yemen for a considerable cash consideration
will place Adelphi in a much stronger financial position, without the need to obtain further equity funding for its current projects. Importantly, Adelphi is expected to retain a meaningful equity interest and hence leverage to shareholders in the large Sugarloaf resource play.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Bye Bye Sugarloaf !!!

Well my hopes of ADI being sucessful in producing from the SL with a 20% stake are officially over.

The key now is what are the terms of this deal one would hope some substantial free carried works in the area.


----------



## nioka

Lucky_Country said:


> Bye Bye Sugarloaf !!!
> 
> Well my hopes of ADI being sucessful in producing from the SL with a 20% stake are officially over.
> 
> The key now is what are the terms of this deal one would hope some substantial free carried works in the area.




Look at it this way,without a farmin partner it may well have been Bye Bye or another capital raising that would have massively diluted the shareholding. Now it should be a free carry. Half a loaf is better than no bread. I'll settle for it.

(At the current SP you can double your holding cheaply and still have the same equity.)


----------



## solomon

I'm out.

It wasn't entirely due to negativity on ADI though. I need to raise some cash and ADI looks to be the most vulnerable to further downside in my portfolio, so I've taken the loss over the last few days (starting before the announcement).

I wish all holders a quadzillion percent return from here.


----------



## seasprite

solomon said:


> I'm out.
> 
> It wasn't entirely due to negativity on ADI though. I need to raise some cash and ADI looks to be the most vulnerable to further downside in my portfolio, so I've taken the loss over the last few days (starting before the announcement).
> 
> I wish all holders a quadzillion percent return from here.




I was glad to sell the majority of my holdings when Meryl Lynch pumped the share price up to the mid 30's which allowed me to sell mine before they dumped . Remaining sharees are considered to be free . 
One top 20 shareholders activity was becoming a concern to me and maybe in a bull market their selling technique may have worked of dumping shares on good news , however it didn't and it led lead to a mass exodus and wealth destruction of a few including themselves . I won't name them , however caution remaining holders this holder has taken up the SPP and is in the lower 10 of the top 20 as of today http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/investors/shareholders.php 

Once ADI receive some cash from block 7 , a good farmout agreement and management stop B***S****ing themselves they will move forward.


----------



## Agentm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/135...-earnings-call-transcript?source=bnet&page=-1

st marys conference call is very interesting


pioneer also did one


----------



## Agentm

RNS Number : 7454R
Empyrean Energy PLC
06 May 2009

?
6 May 2009
Empyrean Energy PLC
("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME))
Sugarloaf Prospect, ("Sugarloaf"), Block A, Texas USA


* Combined total production from Block-A for the month of March 2009 was reported to the Texas Rail Road Commission ("TRRC") as 15,621 barrels of oil and 113,693,000 cubic feet of gas.

* Empyrean has a 7.5% working interest (5.25% net interest after royalties) in the 5 Block-A wells that it has participated in.



Empyrean Energy Plc, the oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Germany and the USA, is pleased to provide the following update on operations on Block A which is part of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate Field:


The operator of Block A, Conoco Phillips, has reported production figures for the month of March 2009 to the TRRC. The production figures show production from the Block A-1 Well (Kunde 3), Block A-3 Well (Baker Trust 1), Block A-4 Well (Baker Trust 2) and the Block A-5 Well (Marlene Olsen). It is believed that the fifth well, the Block A-2 Well (Kunde 2) is presently awaiting production facilities. It is not known how many days production this represents for each well. The following table shows the production summary for the individual wells:


+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| Well Name | Oil Production (Barrels) | Gas Production (Cubic Feet) |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| A-1 | 5,687 | 18,205,000 |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| A-2 | Awaiting facility | Awaiting facility |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| A-3 | 3,862 | 42,950,000 |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| A-4 | 5,372 | 49,907,000 |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| A-5 | 700 | 2,631,000 |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+
| TOTALS | 15,621 | 113,693,000 |
+------------------+-------------------------------+------------------------------------+


Empyrean advises that following drilling and completion operations the daily reporting of operations by the operator ceases once wells move to production status. The general regime for the reporting of production in the USA is that the operator will file monthly production figures to the RRC. This is usually accompanied by a subsequent notification of that filing to any partners.


Revenue notifications and accompanying monthly revenue cheques are received approximately 1.5 months following the production for oil and 2.5 months following the production for gas.


Commenting today Empyrean Executive Director, Tom Kelly said - "We are pleased with the early production, in particular from the horizontal wells A-1, A-3 and A-4. With the A-2 vertical well to come on to production and further work likely on A-5 vertical well, we expect that production will increase. *We are also finally able to confirm that Conoco Phillips is the operator of the Block A wells and having a company of their caliber operating really speaks for itself.*"


----------



## estseon

3 points concerning the RNS

1.  Note that EME suggests that some of the wells may have been shut in for part of the month. I don't personally feel that we can get a proper view on flow rates until we see the May or June flows.

2.  Though not of interest to ADI holders (yet), it has still to be clarified whether revenues are shared in the cost sharing ratio for each well until full recapture of costs for that well.

3.  Of interest to ADI holders, it has still to be clarified whether royalties only become payable for the production from a well after the costs of that well have been fully recovered out of production income.

Factors 2 & 3 make considerable difference to initial cash in-flows 

Factor 2 might mean that the new JVP will recover his costs out of production income before the existing JVPs start to receive their proportionate shares (although the farm-out agreement might not have the same terms).


----------



## Agentm

estson

i note that the following flow rates for feb 09 for kunde 3

734.39 mcfpd	254.61bopd.. 

that well has consistently produced 30% more than the 250 bo per 1mmcfpd ratio the jvp tout for the region.

baker 2.. feb 09

323.14 mcfpd	113.75 bopd

baker 1

507.39 mcfpd	100.21 bopd

marlene olsen (vertical well)

71.64	mcfpd   24.50 bopd


kunde 1 discovery well (vertical)

167.18 mcfpd	34.14 bopd


in karnes county adi has one open hole damaged well producing, thats kowalik,  and only 900 foot of kennedy opened up with a frac..



kennedy

68.25	 mcfpd 14.07 bopd

kowalik

312.39 mcfpd   74.14 bopd


----------



## estseon

agent,

The Bakers were worked on in February and fracturing seems to temporarily increase the gas/condensate proportion. Kunde 3 and Kowalik are probably a better guide. Kowalik was about 320 barrels per 1mmcfg and Kunde 3 (worked on end of December and beginning of Jan) seems to be comparable. Kennedy flows are low (only 600ft of incorrectly designed fracturing), so I'm not too sure that much can be learned. They have oscillated more recently around about 290. Kunde 3 bottom 900ft is now connected so April & May figures might give a better idea but the condensate production seems to be 20% better than the 250 per 1mmcfg produced in the western fields.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

ADI

Recently did a cap raising at 6c which was taken up aby ARQ/AWE and by the directors

"During the quarter the Company issued a total of some 27.3 million shares by way of share placement and a Share Purchase Plan at an issue price of 6 cents per share to raise a total of approximately $1.6 million before costs. The share placement was taken up by professional investors, ARC Energy Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited) and by Directors of the Company."


The Company’s current cash position of some $2 million will be considerably strengthened upon settlement of the
sale transaction with Mitsui in relation to Yemen Block 7, with expected net cash backing of some 5 cents per issued Adelphi share following settlement.



*So 5c per share cash backing, placements taken up by ARQ and directors at 6c and some projects still on the go*


One to watch, sell side non existant and given the recovery runs on ADX AZZ and SEA I think its about time this hammered oiler got up and galloped


----------



## Agentm

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> ADI
> 
> Recently did a cap raising at 6c which was taken up aby ARQ/AWE and by the directors
> 
> "During the quarter the Company issued a total of some 27.3 million shares by way of share placement and a Share Purchase Plan at an issue price of 6 cents per share to raise a total of approximately $1.6 million before costs. The share placement was taken up by professional investors, ARC Energy Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited) and by Directors of the Company."
> 
> 
> The Company’s current cash position of some $2 million will be considerably strengthened upon settlement of the
> sale transaction with Mitsui in relation to Yemen Block 7, with expected net cash backing of some 5 cents per issued Adelphi share following settlement.
> 
> 
> 
> *So 5c per share cash backing, placements taken up by ARQ and directors at 6c and some projects still on the go*
> 
> 
> One to watch, sell side non existant and given the recovery runs on ADX AZZ and SEA I think its about time this hammered oiler got up and galloped





young trader

pretty well spot on imho

adi has a very low market cap and will be sitting on a load of cash.. and its very obvious that the farm out on the eagleford will be designed to get many more completions happening and the 3 laterals can be worked over in no time.
plenty of permits all ready set up and can be drilled immediately.


the second yemen block would also be a very handy item in the future to sell.

Market Cap:	9,572,640
Issued Shares:	119,998,061

no need for adi to capital raise at all in the eagleford,

pleny of reasons to think the company is worth more than cash value..


----------



## philly

Young Trader & agentm I agree with you. The current SP barely reflects the cash value of ADI. The SP fails to factor in its acreage in the USA and the potential of Sugarloaf. ADI seems friendless in the market. It is up to the directors to get things moving and moving soon. IMHO there is plenty of upside but how long can one wait?


----------



## jestex12

From Associated Press Re: Oil/Gas:



Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Singer on Monday upgraded a litany of companies in the oil and gas sector based on expectations of oil price recovery and shale gas growth over the next three to six months.

Singer raised his rating for Devon Energy Corp. as he believes its stock has room to rise and will benefit from a rebound in commodity prices. He added that the company shows potential in its key shale plays, oil sands and deep water Gulf of Mexico. Singer upgraded Devon to "Conviction List-Buy" from "Neutral," and raised his price target for the stock to $80 from $67.

Devon shares fell $1 to $62.81 in afternoon trading.

Singer upgraded Anadarko Petroleum Corp. to "Neutral" from "Sell" due to improved shale exposure and upside from exploration and commodity prices. Shares of the company slid $3.30, or 6.4 percent, to $48.66.

Stocks likely to benefit the most from oil price recovery are Pioneer Natural Resources, Encore Acquisition Co., Devon and Newfield Exploration Co., Singer said, raising the price target of Pioneer to $37 from $35, Encore to $38 from $35 and Newfield to $45 from $37.

Shares of Pioneer slid $2.19, or 7.3 percent, to $27.68. Encore shares dropped $1.86, or 5.2 percent, to $34.18. Newfield shares fell $2.13, or 5.9 percent, to $33.88.

Among companies with shale gas exposure, Singer listed as "best stock ideas" Chesapeake Energy Corp., Encore, Newfield, Devon and Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. Chesapeake shares dropped $1.38, or 5.8 percent, to $22.47. Shares of Cabot dropped $1.48, or 4.3 percent, to $33.09


----------



## Agentm

we have seen all the regional participants give their first quarter speeches, and all speak of the eagleford as part of their forward plans, 12 months ago it was barely mentioned by most.



Swift Energy Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript May 8 , 2009
*
“We continued to annualize the potentials that all of our South Texas acreage has for both the Eagleford Shale formation and other emerging place. Bob will discuss our land position in greater detail. But I am pleased with the work our folks have done to grow our Olmos and Eagleford positions at a very attractive price. We're planning to drill at least one well in 2009 to test the Eagleford Shale formation on our acreage”*

*“We also continued to evaluate our exposure to the Eagleford Shale on our acreage. This is an exciting new play and we are optimistic about its potentials, but cautious about making predictions until we have data to support them.*
Our AWP field is where we will focus our evaluation of this play in 2009. We have approximately 60,000 acres on Eagleford rights and in around AWP field, most of which we believe to be on trend with current competitor activity in the area.
We are currently forming a strategy to accelerate the development of our Eagleford rights which will consider all options available to us including the addition of potential joint venture partners. Swift energy plans to drill a well to test the potential of Eagleford Shale formation during the second half of this year.
We continued to evaluate and acquire acreage prospective for both Olmos and the Eagleford Shale across our entire South Texas core area. Our current acreage position has approximately 97,000 acres with new Olmos potential and 82,000 acres with Eagleford potential.
Thanks for your attention this morning. And I'll turn it back to Terry now to recap”


“Ken Carroll - Johnson Rice & Company
Good, good. Just in certainly back to the Eagleford, you're talking about most of your focus these drill on will on be laid up in peak and going back through kind of presentations, you show Sun TSH and Fasken and Briscoe having potential lot in that area. Of the 82,000 you got acres that you've identified, I assume most of that related to AP with some at TSH, is that correct?

Terry Swift

That is correct.
Robert Banks

60,000 is around... in an around AWP and we have a total of about 82,000. So --
Bruce Vincent
82,000 that undeveloped.

Robert Banks

Undeveloped that's out between AWP and the other areas.

Ken Carroll - Johnson Rice & Company

Now, when you say other areas, is that scattered between Briscoe and Fasken as well or based on --

Robert Banks

Briscoe, Fasken and Sun TSH.

Ken Carroll - Johnson Rice & Company

Got you. So there is... we wouldn't look for a meaningful increase in that acreage number as you evaluate that you have there been? Got you. Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you.”



*“Jeffrey Robertson - Barclays Capital
Thanks Bob. At AWP, have you all actually... have you all penetrated the Eagleford with any other wells to have any idea of what the fitness or what any of the rock characteristics are?

Robert Banks

As you may we aware, we actually purchased our regional position out AWP from Shell and certain of the wells of Shell drilled that actually all going all the way down to the Edwards which did in fact then give us a look at the Eagleford though there weren't any specific tests in those vertical wells.
In and about the field at Shasta, there are enough controlled points around us that we can tie into a very extensive 2D seismic database that we that have in and by extensive. I mean we got that thing covered over which way with 2D. And then to the north, we've actually got 3D in the area.
So, well we are very confident that we understand the Eagleford. We will also been able to tied on strike with some of the activity that the competitors doing out there. We know this owns underneath our acreage and obviously it's in our developing play status and certainly not a mature play. But we have every reason to believe we've got a really excellent Eagleford position.
*
Jeffrey Robertson - Barclays Capital

Terry, can you tell much about the factoring under AWP from what you've... from the data that you do have?

Terry Swift

Factoring in terms of the Eagleford itself?

Jeffrey Robertson - Barclays Capital
Yes.

Robert Banks

Natural fracturing?
Terry Swift

The natural fracturing itself while it's a component out there, we actually have a lot of fall prices up in the... through the Olmos sand, we know where the falls moves extensively through that zone and I think the Eagleford is really only, how many feet below that has gone down, roughly a 1000. So we've got a real good handle on the debt structure, the rate of change in depth in the area. And I think we know as well as anybody what kind of fraction to expect there.

Jeffrey Robertson - Barclays Capital

And then your drilling plans in the second half of the year, do you just plan the one wells in 2009 or would you try to ... will it be drilled early enough in the second half to benefits works the way you hope it does, you'd be able to fit in another well?

Robert Banks

Well, there is a lot of what ifs there. We definitely want to get to well in and get it in soon enough that we've got an evaluation on this year and you can make plans for 2010. That's the reason we get that well.
*Now we're also looking at as we noted in our call, we're looking at brining in a partner and should we bring in a partner into the Eagleford activity, the whole purpose of that would be to accelerate, to get more than one well, get a much better mileage and get some momentum into 2010.*

Jeffrey Robertson - Barclays Capital

Thank you”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136...nings-call-transcript?page=-1&find=Eagle+ford


----------



## Agentm

other players talikng up the eagleford

New entrant to the Eagle Ford shale.

Murphy Oil Corporation Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript David M. Wood May 7 , 2009

“Our business development group has been very engaged looking at many different opportunities. One of our aims has been to replicate the position in the Montney formation previously mentioned at Tupper. To date we have entered and successfully accumulated well over 100,000 acres in the Eagle Ford play in southwest Texas. We are early in the process, have much work to do but are very pleased to add this caliber of potential resources to our portfolio. It will be exciting to watch this natural gas play evolve”

“Mark Gilman – The Benchmark Company

On the Eagle Ford transaction, what did the acreage cost you?

David M. Wood

You know Mark, we’re still actively leasing so I hate to hamper our guys’ effort there. We’re targeting really focus area on two counties although we’ve got acreage in other places La Salle and McMullen and we’ve been doing it for a while here but I’m a little loath to say what the acreage costs are because it’s still active work.

Mark Gilman – The Benchmark Company

When do you plan to drill?

David M. Wood

We have a location set now but I doubt that we’ll start drilling before the fourth quarter. I’d like to drill multiple wells so we can get a sense of the acreage. As you know most of those types of plays have variability to them and so we see what other people are doing, they are near where we are or we’re near where they are but we’re going to have to drill our own acreage. So, we’re going to put together our own appraisal program including coring, etc. and kick that off in the fourth quarter.”

David M. Wood

“But, I would say for new types of business that we’re looking to do the Eagle Ford being one, if I look at rig prices today for that play versus what it was nine months ago they’re 40% plus down. So, I think the industry is moving that way and I think costs are going to help us, they’re going to help everybody and I still think there’s a little way to go”

“David M. Wood

It’s a picture that has many moving parts and a lot of the people that are playing it have hedges in which allow them some flexibility that’s independent of where prices are currently. So, I still thing that the bid/ask spread is wide. What we’ve been doing in the Eagle Ford is actually going and buying the leases. So, that’s a different approach, we’ve not been buying companies to get the acreage position. So, I’m very happy with the entry costs, I’m very happy with the quality of the play below ground and I’m comfortable that above ground that I don’t think we’ll see any untoward issues.
Buying things is fine, I have no issue. Our business development group is very good at drumming up opportunities but as I said earlier in my comments, I think you’ve got to have things that work at $4 or less or you’re just going to be disadvantaged. So, I’m open to any mechanism that lets us get to that point.

Mark Caruso – Millennium Partners

One follow up Eagle Ford question, I know you’re hesitant to give too much info and it sounds like the drilling program is more backend loaded but can you give us a sense of where you are in relation to some of your peers who have already announced their acreage positions?

*David M. Wood

We’re right in the heart of the plays is the way I’d look at it and I’d qualify that by saying that we haven’t drilled any wells yet but other people have and so we’re in that game. So, we’re in McMullen and La Salle counties primarily and we’ve got some acreage spread across there, we’ve got over 100,000 acres net and we’re growing. So, I think we’re in the play”*

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136...nings-call-transcript?page=-1&find=Eagle+Ford


----------



## Agentm

http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/news.asp?articleid=290769

Anadarko Announces 1Q Results



Anadarko APC announced first-quarter results after the close on Wednesday. First-quarter production came in at 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboed), which is higher than our expectations and the company's forecast. For the year, the company is still projecting toward 575 mboed. Our 2009 production forecast currently exceeds the top end of the firm's range, but we anticipate adjusting that downward based on reduction in our natural gas production growth estimate.


...........


Preliminary results from the Eagle Ford and Pearshall Shales in the Maverick Basin look promising, but the firm still needs sufficient well control data before releasing per-well reserve estimates. Management also stated they still need to drive down well costs and delineate the play. Anadarko is adding another rig to drill additional wells in the play.


----------



## Agentm

anadarko has mr fluor as a director, the director of TCEI also in our jvp, its a big player in the shale and likes the eagleford..

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

James Hackett – Chairman, President and CEO

We continue to gather information to gain insight into the performance of this reservoir. In the Maverick Basin in south Texas, we had some good success in the first quarter with our third horizontal well in the Eagle Ford shale that tested rates as high as six million cubic feet equivalent per day with a significant liquid component.

Operator

(Operator instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Tom Gardner of Simmons and Company. Please proceed.
 Simmons and Company

*Hey, Jim, some operators have been touting multi TCF potential in the Pearsall and Eagle Ford shales in the Maverick Basin. I just wanted to see if this was consistent with Anadarko's view. I know it's early but could you give us a view on your economics in these eme
Tom Gardner –rging plays?

Jim Hackett

Tom, I appreciate the question. I might ask Bob Daniels to give us his thoughts on that.

Bob Daniels

Sure. Tom, I think that clearly the multi TCF number from a gas and place number is there without a doubt. I think the key question we're trying to answer is the economics out there. Our drill costs need to come down from where they are, but we're making good progress on that. And then we need to monitor how the wells are going to perform. We've got a couple of Eagle Ford wells online right now and we're bringing on 10 million a day Pearsall well here shortly. And then we'll watch and see how those perform. Meanwhile, we're out there moving a rig in to drill some more wells and some get more data because we do like what we're seeing and we recognize there is a huge resource potential there. Now, it's making it all work.

Jim Hackett

Tom, I think the fact that you got gas prices where they're at kind of foreshadows why Bob is making a comment about drilling costs. I think where you're in a Eagle Ford with little higher liquid content, there is obviously an advantage there today and that revenue stream.*


Doug Leggate – Howard Weil

Great. Final one for me is I don't know if you can answer this or not but the Eagle Ford, some of the issues your partner has done there is facing right now, what are the things shaking out for you done there? Has there been any disruption to partner participation funding or that kind of stuff. Is it a possibility you might be able to, would you want to increase your position in that area? That's it for me.

Charles Meloy

Well, our partners continue to execute the program. They are in a bit of financial trouble but they continue to execute this program. I think they view this as their star asset in their portfolio and have continued to progress the program and as Bob mentioned earlier, with the recent results, I think they have a lot of enthusiasm for this area and with both the Pearsall, IPT that we saw over ten million a day and the results in the Eagle Ford that has been out there, I think you'll continue to see them say this is one of their star assets and execute to what their capacity is.

Doug Leggate – Howard Weil

Okay. So no prospect of you increasing your position down there?

Al Walker

Well, this is Al Walker, I think you might see us whether it's via any particular issues coming out of TXCO and what they do or don't do, that would be a little difficult for us to speculate on. We have a very large acreage position as it currently stands and we think a pretty good area. But opportunistically, we could add some leases in that area, in places that we currently see being equal to or better than the acreage position that we currently have.


----------



## Agentm

Petrohawk Energy Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript May 6, 2009

“Floyd C. Wilson

And the news is all good down at Hawk Field in South Texas as well. We have two operated rigs running there and one non-operated rig. This is in our Eagle Ford Shale play. Five wells are on production, our latest well the Henderson, the Nessell (ph), is our best well to-date and the least expensive as well.
Down here we are targeting about 20 days. We're adding small bits of strategic acreage in Hawk Field Services is on the job preparing infrastructure for the expected surge in production”

“Ron Mills - Johnson Rice & Company LLC

Good morning Floyd. Can you discuss a little bit about, hey I think you mentioned another well in the Eagle Ford, curious just in terms of relative to the other wells where it was located. It sounds like it was -- at one of the better rates and just any more details on that well?

Floyd Wilson

Yeah, I'll let him talk to you a little bit about the location of the well. The point of bringing that well out was it is our best well to date. But the ideas of the programs going quite well, improving in terms of efficiencies in cost and the series (ph) behind is design a frac jobs and so on.

Mark Mize

Yeah, that well is located in the Southwestern part of the field in the dry gas area. As Floyd mentioned we have two rigs running, its river kind of dissects the field. We got one rig running on the southwest side of that river, one rig on the northeast side. So we're going to have kind of a spread of results about the field as the year goes on”



*“Ron Mills - Johnson Rice & Company LLC

Subash just asked one, the other question just in terms of Eagle Ford since you're still early in that play. Any tweak that you can discuss in terms of how you all are completing the wells out there to this point and is there a depreciable difference whether you're in the gas (ph) and versus the oil wind go into completions.

Floyd Wilson

No Ron the huge tweak has been that the, I think the first well took us 75 days to drill or more and this last wells is 20 or 22 days or something. Cost have come down from 12 or 12 plus million down to I think the last AFE I have signed was under 5 million so, those are some significant tweaks.
Its early days to say that much. We can't say that so far, wells are exhibiting the slightly more shallow decline, didn't say Haynesville. And far as the completion, it looks to me like that we completing about the same whether they are in the dry gas area or the high Btu or liquid, high liquid content areas. Their made to completions are identical”
*

http://seekingalpha.com/article/135887-petrohawk-energy-q1-2009-earnings-call-transcript


----------



## Agentm

Pioneer Natural Resources Company Q1 2009 Earnings Call Transcript May 6 , 2009

“Chris will talk a lot more detail about the Eagle Ford Shale. Obviously, we are in the process of frac-ing this week, next week our first Eagle Ford Shale well in South Texas. Also we will be starting a second well horizontal well in the third quarter”

“Turning to page nine, I am going to pass the call over to Chris, as Scott already mentioned, the Eagle Ford Shale has generated a lot of attention and we thought it would be a good idea to have him discuss all of our South Texas operations with the focus also on the Eagle Ford.

Chris Cheatwood

All right. Thanks, Tim. As Tim said, in most of comments I will be talking about the Eagle Ford this morning. But I think it’s important that we not overlook what we have accomplished in the Edwards reef trend that directly underlies with Eagle. Also, I will provide this low historical perspective the database that we have in the Eagle Ford.

From 1997 through 2005, we drilled around 80 horizontal wells in Pawnee field that produces from the Edwards. We more than doubled the reserves in the field during that time and grew production from under 10 million cubic feet per day to over 50 million cubic feet per day. Because of our results and what we learned upon, we began taking up trend acreage in mid-2005 along the Edwards reef play and acquired over 300,000 acres that we still hold today.

In 2006 through 2008, we shut over 900 square miles of 3-D seismic, drilled around 75 wells mostly horizontals and grew production in Edwards outside Pawnee during this time from the previously mentioned 15 million cubic feet per day to over 120 million cubic feet per day. These are gross numbers that I am quoting here. As shown on the slide, that resulted in Q1 ’08 to Q1 ’09 production growth of 28%. Also because of this drilling campaign, we currently have an inventory of over 200 Edwards’ locations to drill. As we were drilling the wells in the Edwards play, we regularly had to flare gas as we drill to the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford formations.

We became very interested in the shale formation and gathered information on them as we drilled our Edwards wells. Combining data from the lots and coursing these wells with our expensive 3-D seismic has given us a very good picture of their potential overall acreage. In late 2008, we drilled our first well that has the Eagle Ford formation in Dewitt County. We got a 180 fleet of lower Eagle Ford in the vertical well, and then drilled a 3,000 foot lateral. Completion of the lateral was deferred, so we could incorporate the rock property data from the core. The completion should be done in the next couple of weeks. We will be drilling an 8-stage frac over that 3,000 foot lateral.

We are planning to drill a second horizontal well with Eagle Ford on our acreage in the third quarter. This well will be approximately 75 miles south of the first well. The distance between these wells I think gives you an idea of the scale display across our acreage position. We had plans for a larger drilling campaign, but the world has changed significantly in the last year and accordingly as you heard us discuss before, we reduced our capital expenditures across the company. Because of this, production from our South Texas assets is expected to decline in 2009 about 5% relative to ’08.

Turning to slide 10, I will now talk about Eagle Ford play specifics. The Eagle Ford is a calcareous organic rich shale that overlies our Edwards reef play over our entire 300,000 plus acreage position as shown on the map. It ranges in depth from around 10,000 feet in the Southwest to around 14,000 feet in the Northeast. The thickness ranges from 120 feet wet to 250 feet wet. The good average thickness to use and calculate volume metrics is around 200 feet. The effective porosity averages consistently across the area of around 10%. The formation is slightly overpressured with the pressure radiant on 0.65 to 0.7 psi per foot.

One of the most intriguing features across our acreage is the fracturing of the Shale Ford – Eagle Ford in Austin Chalk formations, because we essentially have total 3-D seismic coverage on our acreage, can see fracturing in shallower Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk formations, both on raw seismic data and especially from coherency process. Most of our previously drilled Edwards well had strong mud log shows which frequently require gas while drilling throughout the lower Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford formations. This extends our gas column in many instances throughout the Edwards, Eagle Ford and lower Austin Chalk. The magnitude is a natural fracturing of individual well production that recovers, it is difficult to predict until we get multiple test, but it is well known in these types of plays that mother nature's contribution can be far greater than man made horsepower. This could be a great benefit to us both from well performance and reduced in completion cost.

As stated earlier, we have drilled around 150 horizontal wells since 1997. Because of this, we feel comfortable that drilling and completion cost in the long run will average around $6 million. Wells during the initial phase have planned additional cost for science and will probably over designed the completions on the first few wells, but I am confident in our process long term. Most of the questions we feel that today as Frank alluded to earlier would sense how Eagle Ford on our acreage compares to the new discovery by Petrohawk in La Salle County. You can see the location of their acreage on the map relative to our. Their play is slightly different and it is concentrated basically of the Edwards reef trend. They have completed four wells to date and are drilling two more at this time.

On the next slide, I am going to show you well (inaudible). My comments will be brief and you can draw your own conclusions because I think the data speaks for itself. A cross-section on slide 11 shows Petrohawk’s Dora Martin well and La Salle County on the left. This well is a strong producer in the Eagle Ford and next to it are two wells on our acreage. The well named Pioneer 1 on the right is a vertical log on the well where we drilled our 3,000 foot lateral and that well is currently complete. It's important to note that this well is located over 125 miles northeast of the Dora Martin.

The well Pioneer 2 in the center is a vertical log near the location where we will drill our second well later this year. It is located over 50 miles from the Dora Martin well. All three lags, on all three lags the curve on the left is (inaudible), the center curve is the decreased activity and the right curve is density porosity with density porosity greater than 9% highlighted in pink. I am not sure on the mud loss because I don’t have one on the Dora Martin, but there were very strong gas shows throughout the Eagle Ford in both of our wells and I am sure on merits as well. Also shown is the location of the core taken in our first well.

*On the right is a table comparing published data by Petrohawk combined with lag calculated and core data to compare the three wells in areas. I think the data from both the lag and new tables showed all three to be very similar. So I hope this gives you a relative comparison, the one you’ve been looking for. Our next step of course is to confirm this with a couple of well test. So to conclude today, I would say our South Texas acreage is fulfilling our expectations in the Edwards reef play and the Eagle Ford Shale looks very promising. All of our data supports what you’ve heard from us so far about the new play. Also, it indicates our wells to perform similar to the current producers in La Salle County. I look forward to discussing this again with you in the future when we have some shale test results and some higher gas prices.
*
I will turn it back now to Tim to talk about Alaska.”


http://seekingalpha.com/article/135...pany-q1-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1


----------



## Agentm

volumes on the rise..




http://www.murphyoilcorp.com/ir/presentations/expro2009/expro.pdf

murphy decided to come clean and announce its acreages, and presented a few slides that are interesting


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Nice post on Murphy's acreage!  You know my acreage.  Interesting to see what develops around Dewitt.  Thanks for the post.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Volumes cetainly are on the rise Agentm but I really expected more of a movement once it convincingly broke 6c

No doubt it needs a catalyst to really get it moving, perhaps confirmation of the Yemen sale proceeds being recieved or update on forward operations



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> ADI
> 
> Recently did a cap raising at 6c which was taken up aby ARQ/AWE and by the directors
> 
> "During the quarter the Company issued a total of some 27.3 million shares by way of share placement and a Share Purchase Plan at an issue price of 6 cents per share to raise a total of approximately $1.6 million before costs. The share placement was taken up by professional investors, ARC Energy Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited) and by Directors of the Company."
> 
> 
> The Company’s current cash position of some $2 million will be considerably strengthened upon settlement of the
> sale transaction with Mitsui in relation to Yemen Block 7, with expected net cash backing of some 5 cents per issued Adelphi share following settlement.
> 
> 
> 
> *So 5c per share cash backing, placements taken up by ARQ and directors at 6c and some projects still on the go*
> 
> 
> One to watch, sell side non existant and given the recovery runs on ADX AZZ and SEA I think its about time this hammered oiler got up and galloped


----------



## Agentm

hey jestex

your ranch is right on the sligo trend, yet is only a few miles from the pioneer eagleford well.  so it makes your acreages interesting alright..


youngtrader..

i hear that the olsen baker well test was outstanding, and if my regional information is up to speed, then these new wells that TCEI/Conocophillips just drilled are paid off in just 60 days. based on $6mill completion costs. 

i am adding right now as i consider the next farm in partner to be getting involved into a play with considerable local and regional information available to it. Surely its seriously going to be impossible for TCEI to not be pushing for the next wells to be drilled other than in a very similar way to the ones they just drilled with conocophillips.

my own view is that right now,  regionally in the eagleford, it would be a requirement to be making more than 5.5 mmcfpd and say 1700 bopd to take the award for best well in the eagleford. at a guess 

if only folk understood how close in feet that well sits to our acreages..


----------



## Agentm

pioneer have been presenting their progress in the eagleford.. this last presentation from yesterday demonstrates their continued interest

one well is being fracture stimulated, the other is planned Q3

austin chalks gas column is mentioned.


----------



## mattyhammer

Not a bad little break up this morning, ADI supporters. The share price looks like it's getting a bit of an upward trend forming which is only a good thing. Some good volume over the past couple of days. Lets hope it can hold its strength and move on to bigger and better things.


----------



## Agentm

hey mattyhammer  its a strange week, volumes went ballistic then dead stop.

north of kowalik, some 11 miles,  dan A hughes, a smaller operator who works out of beeville in bee county, and who does a lot of drilling in the area has put in a permit for a 4500 foot chalks well

closer to kowalik, and i am talking within 2 miles,  3 d seismic is being shot right this minute


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Agentm you follow this like a hawk, thanks for all the info, research & hardwork

Buy depth strengthening, still be nice to see it go on a little trot


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## Agentm

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Agentm you follow this like a hawk, thanks for all the info, research & hardwork
> 
> Buy depth strengthening, still be nice to see it go on a little trot




it sure has got strength in the buy side

i have been posting this updated map of the local wells. Conocophillips is pushing ahead both with the new oil pipelines and with the permits still left to drill. each completion they are learning more and more on the chalks and marlene olsen vertical well is flowing from the eagleford

it makes the eagleford a very prospective target, as ADI has eagleford production from a 600 foot feather duster mini frac in kennedy 1h.   

my understanding is that all these oil pipelines conoco are laying are in expectation of some impressive flow of condensate  not only from the extremely high rates seen in the chalks, but the eagleford is reportedly very very oily..

its evident that eagleford wells are now all commercial once a multi stage frac is utilised in them. very much looking forward to any progress in the kennedy well myself. 

all valuations on potential reserves have been primarily based on chalks calculations. from what i understand the eagleford offers many times more potential. with demonstrated flow from both the eagleford and chalks in adi acreages, i am eager for them to move forward myself.


----------



## Agentm

a fairly impressive 3d seismic is being shot right now, as i mentioned earlier 

dawsons are a very well respect company that is doing a very substantial shoot right now..  from dawsons annual report:

As we enter the new year, the landscape for seismic
services remains solid. Exploration and production
companies continue to strive to increase reserves and
production at low costs. *Ongoing exploration efforts in
shale plays across the lower 48 are driving even greater
opportunities.* As a result, our order book reflects
continued commitments to sustain full operations of
all 16 crews into 2009. 

dawsons employs over 1400 staff,, right now some 210 are on this job which i understand is some 102 square miles on the immediate primary project.

its quite an impressive show with many crews working extremely hard to finish off this job in quick fashion.

conocophillips builds oil pipelines, seismic being shot, and adi remains cash value..

interesting that not even the chalks play on its own can attract any value to adi yet conocophillips is doing a major operation 3 miles away..  i am not aware of any fault, or dramatic change in the geology in the region that differentiates our acreages from the conocophillips wells a few miles west..

perhaps there is something in the chalks and eagleford after all and the market has got it wrong! maybe there will be a reward for holding and one day adi wont be at cash value

just a thought


----------



## Agentm

Operational Review

BLOCK A


(KUNDE 3)

The TCEI JV Block A-1 well (KUNDE 3) was shut in for pressure build-up measurement during the period 28 May 2008 to 21 November 2008, interspersed with several brief periods of production. The first production to sales was announced on 13 November 2008 when an initial seven day average rate of *2.6 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day ("mmcfgepd") was produced from the lateral interval 13,521ft - 14,404ft. (883 feet)* 

*A second stage of perforations was then carried out over the interval 1,805ft - 13,305ft accompanied by acid fraccing of the Austin Chalk. 
*
*The well is now flowing from a combined interval of 2,600ft and the latest production figures released to the Texas Railroad Commission showed 5,687 barrels of oil and 18.205 million cubic feet ("mmcf") of gas produced for the month of March 2009.*

(KUNDE 2)

The TCEI JV Block A-2 well (KUNDE 2) was up until 21 December 2008 used or microseismic monitoring purposes during the fraccing and testing operations of the A-1 well which is located 1.5km to the south.

Operations pertinent to TCEI JV A-2(KUNDE 2) resumed on 21 December 2008 and perforations were made over six separate intervals between 1,865ft and 11,980ft in the formation underlying the classic Austin Chalk. An acid fracc was then carried out through the perforated intervals, followed by a shut in period of three months for the purpose of measuring reservoir pressure build up.

The well was re-opened on 2 April 2009 to allow 'well intervention operations' including swabbing and flow back.

This is a vertical well which exhibited encouraging hydrocarbon shows during drilling.

(BAKER 1)

The well was spudded on 24 October 2007 and had significant shows and flares recorded for the entire 2,800ft open hole interval. It had been trying to flow while drilling, despite the fairly high mud weights, to such a degree that it was decided to test the flow potential even before reaching the proposed total measured depth of 17,800ft.

On 14 April 2008 Empyrean was able to announce the initial test results of a significant gas-condensate discovery.* Initial flows through a 12/64" choke were measured at 1.9 million cubic feet of gas per day ("mmcfgpd") with 460 barrels of condensate per day. Based on present day prices for gas and condensate this would be equivalent to 6.6 mmcfgepd.* This open hole test was conducted without stimulation.

The well was then "shut in" as part of the normal reservoir and production engineering procedure. During the "shut in "period the operator has been finalising the design (based on TCEI JV Block A-1 (KUNDE 3)) and construction of production facilities and pipeline connection.

Operations resumed on 4 February 2009 and the well was again opened to flow following a water and surfactant flush of the open hole interval 12,276ft - 15,100ft. On 24 February 2009 Empyrean announced that the A-3 (BAKER 1) well had commenced flowing to sales, with average flow rates for the 7 days up to and including 21 February 2009 being 4.101 mmcfgpd and 408 barrels of condensate per day.


*The latest production figures released to the Texas Railroad Commission showed 3,862 barrels of oil and 42.95 mmcf of gas produced for the month of March 2009*.

(BAKER 2)

*TCEI JV Block A-4 (BAKER 2) is the fifth well in the original 16 well programme and the fourth drilled well located in Block A and is designed to test the same "Upper" zone of the Austin Chalk as the producing Block A wells TCEI JV A-1 and TCEI JV A-3 (KUNDE 3 & BAKER 1)*


The well was spudded on 4 July 2008 and reached total depth of 12,756ft in the vertical pilot hole on 26 July 2008. *At least 300ft of gas shows were
encountered during this phase of drilling and backround readings of 50 units
rose to a maximum of 1325 units in some instances (sounds familiar!!)*.


The horizontal phase terminated at 15,084ft (measured depth) on 7 September 2008. More than 1500ft of gas-condensate pay had been intercepted in the Austin Chalk reservoir and this was considered by the operator to be sufficient to provide a good commercial outcome.


Preparations for production testing commenced at the beginning of October 2008, and on 31 October 2008 it was announced that TCEI JV Block A-4 *(BAKER 2) had flowed initial rates as high as 2.5 mmcfgpd and 260 barrels of condensate per day, equating to approximately 5.1 mmcfgepd.*


The sales pipeline connection and production facilities were completed, and on *14 February 2009 the well commenced flowing to sales after having been stimulated by an acid fracc. At the time the well achieved average flow rates for the 7 days up to and including 21 February 2009 of 4.101 mmcfgpd and 408 barrels of condensate per day.*


The latest production figures released to the Texas Railroad Commission showed 5,372 barrels of oil and 49.907 mmcf of gas produced for the month of March 2009.
*

*************(MARLENE OLSEN)***********

*This vertical well was spudded on 29 September 2008 and reached a total depth of 12,469ft on 27 October 2008. Hydrocarbon shows were encountered during drilling in the traditional Austin Chalk and the underlying fractured Eagleford Shale.*


*The completion operations consisted of 2 phases. In Phase 1 the Eagleford Shale was perforated over the interval 12,190ft - 12,300ft, fracced and allowed to flow briefly. Initial rates recorded were 1.293 mmcfgpd and 408 barrels of condensate per day before the well was shut in for 38 days*. 

*In Phase 2 the overlying Austin Chalk reservoir was perforated over the interval 12,100ft - 12,160ft and acid fracced on 12 February 2009. The well was briefly allowed to flow recording 1.430 mmcfgpd and 403 barrels of condensate through a 12/64"  choke.
*

Production tubing has since been run and the well is now completed in both the Austin Chalk and the Eagleford Shale with open ended tubing (no packer) at 12,079ft.


The latest production figures released to the Texas Railroad Commission showed 700 barrels of oil and 2.631 mmcf of gas produced for the month of March 2009.


----------



## Agentm

BLOCK B

Kennedy-1H (Empyrean Interest: 18%)

Kennedy-1H is located 8km to the east of the Sugarkane Field discovery and contains the same primary target, the Austin Chalk.

The well spudded on 17 September 2007 and after "kicking off" from the vertical at 11,845ft, the total depth of 16,750ft (measured depth) was reached on 12 November 2007, being 820ft short of the original proposed measured depth of 17,570ft.


A fraccing operation was carried out on 14 May 2008. A total of 95,000 lbs of sand and 5,182 barrels of fluid were injected under pressure into 4 sets of perforations over an approximate 600ft horizontal interval. Initial flow results of gas condensate and fracc fluid recovery were announced on 25 May 2008.

A second fraccing operation was performed on 3 July 2008. An additional 3 sets of perforation intervals, each 3ft long, were interspersed between the original 600ft perforated interval prior to the introduction of 100,000lbs of high strength proppant. *The fraccing operation was terminated prematurely due to the high pumping pressures encountered and only 50% of the proppant entered the formation.*


*After cleanup operations, testing of the well resumed on 15 July 2008. The initial, unstabilised rates of 425,000 cubic feet of gas per day ("cfgpd") and 106 barrels of condensate per day reduced, after intermittent slugging, to 200-300 cfgpd and 46-107 barrels of condensate per day.*


Since at least 5,000 barrels of fluid had not been recovered after the fraccing operation, a coil tubing unit was mobilised on 18 July 2008 to displace the fluid. Some additional fluid was recovered but the flow rates remained the same.

*It has been estimated by the operator that the production originated from only 17ft of perforations in the bottom section of the 600ft horizontal section.*


On 31 August 2008 it was announced that Kennedy-1H was being shut- in while production and tie-in facilities were completed for eventual connection with the nearby transmission line. Production recommenced on 2 October at a rate of 20,000 cfgpd and 60 barrels of condensate per day.


*This is the first time production has originated from the "middle" pay zone of the Austin Chalk (which is still referred to as the upper part of Eagleford Shale by some authors),* *and therefore augurs well for recoverable reserve considerations.* A decision whether or not to perforate and fracture stimulate the remaining 3,000ft of horizontal section will be made following the analysis of production performance from other wells in the area.


Kowalik-1H (Empyrean Interest: 18%)


Kowalik-1H is the third well drilled in Block B and the sixth well of the original 16 well programme. It was spudded on 4 July 2008 and was designed to test the so-called "Upper" pay zone of the Austin Chalk over a 6,000ft horizontal interval. It is located 5 km north of Kennedy-1H and is on trend with the producing wells A-1 and A-3 of Block A. (KUNDE 3 & BAKER 1) 

The vertical pilot hole reached a total depth of 11,970ft on 11 August 2008. the horizontal phase was successfully completed on 22 October 2008 when it was announced that the well had reached a final measured depth 16,483ft (equivalent to approximately 4,600ft of horizontal section). Although the original plan was to penetrate a 6,000ft horizontal section, it was considered technically prudent to stop at this depth. *There had been significant gas shows throughout the section, often reading more than 2,000 units with attendant flares on surface.*


*Testing operations commenced on 3 November 2008. Initial flows measured 937,000 cfgpd and 321 barrels of condensate per day. Interpretations indicate that most of this production comes from approximately 1800ft of the horizontal well through an uncemented, 3  ½"slotted liner.*


Weston-1H (Empyrean Interest: 6%)


Weston-1H is the fourth well to be drilled in Block B and is located approximately 1.5 km to the east of the Kennedy-1H well. It was designed to test approximately 6,000 ft horizontally the upper part of the Austin Chalk interval.

The well spudded on 2 November 2008. It kicked off as planned at 11,916ft and had 7" casing set at 12,250 ft measured depth on 28 December 2008. *Gas readings increased dramatically on entering the Austin Chalk and maximum daily average readings of 3100 units were reported with flares of up to 60 ft in length.*

Total depth of 15,797ft was reached on 13 February 2009, after which a 4  ½" liner was cemented to total depth. The original plan was to drill to 18,405ft measured depth and drilling was cut short to reduce risks as several challenges were encountered whilst drilling. *This premature termination still meant that approximately 3000ft of horizontal hole lay within the target zone of the Upper Austin Chalk.*

The Weston -1H well remains suspended for completion with those operations likely to be a priority part of any farm-out deal concluded.


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Enjoyed your last few post's.  Seems like things are in full swing especially in your area!!  Looks like the entire Edwards/Sligo trend is producing the same results...Impressive results!!  Hopefully the same will transpire in my area.  

FYI-Barcelona 2 Man United 0 in the Championship Final!!


----------



## Agentm

jestex

i think the region is proving to be very attractive, we see pioneer completely stopping a edwards gas expansion and changing tactics and only drilling exploration wells into the eagleford/chalks

i have a map of the region that details the wells progress so far for TCEI and their partnership with conocophillips

imho adi is way undervalued at $9 mill market cap.. 

jestex just north of your ranch, inb dewitt county geosouthern jvp did extensive tests in the migura and buchhorn eagleford wells. they hold 77,000 acres in dewitt county.  this is what one jvp partner who owns 50% says about their acreages 

“Kuwait Aref Energy Completes Texas Gas Reserve Analysis-Report
Zawya Dow Jones Newswires

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

BEIRUT (Zawya Dow Jones)--Kuwait's Aref Energy Holding Co. has completed the technical analysis to evaluate the volume of actual production in a natural gas reserve recently discovered in Texas, Kuwait-based Al Watan daily reports Tuesday.

Aref will announce Tuesday the outcome of the analysis, the paper reports citing people familiar with the matter.

*The quantities discovered in the reserve amount to about 25 trillion cubic feet of hydrocarbon contents, and 19 trillion cubic feet of non-associated gas while the volume of gas viable for production is estimated at 4.7 trillion cubic feet, Al Watan reports."
*

http://www.zawya.com/printstory.cfm?storyid=ZW20090512000006&l=050206090512


----------



## Lucky_Country

Sorry about the stock tipping AgentM hopefully a new tipster will get the shareprice moving.

Looks like the shareprice is on a slow upward climb but the lack on news is holding us back.

A drop in the US$ will be most welcome as cost come down activity should resume.


----------



## Agentm

deals are still being done in texas on the eagleford

FORT WORTH, TX -- (Marketwire) -- 05/27/09 -- ReoStar Energy Corporation (OTCBB: REOS), an oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development and production of natural gas and oil properties with operations primarily focused on developmental resource plays and enhanced oil recovery projects, today announced that it has entered into a definitive contract to acquire 13,000 acres of Eagle Ford Shale leasehold in the Gulf Coast region of South Texas for $5.5 million.

The Company will receive a 75% net mineral interest in 13,000 acres of leases covering all depths for three-year terms. The transaction also grants ReoStar the right to acquire an additional 30,000 acres of surrounding mineral leasehold within an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) known as the Hackberry Prospect and includes access to 44 miles of seismic data covering the same.

The Eagle Ford Shale, which is located in Gulf Coast region of South Texas near the State's border with Mexico, is an upper-cretaceous deposit that is approximately 100 million years old and ranges from 4,000 to 14,000 feet in depth, with thicknesses of 50 to 500 feet. Prospective target zones in the newly acquired block include the Wilcox, Edwards, Buda and Eagle Ford Shale.

The Company estimates potential reserves of 500 billion cubic feet equivalent (BCFE) in the initial 13,000-acre leasehold block, with individual well bore reserves ranging from 6 to 11 BCFE depending on the zone. Test wells will be drilled in both the Eagle Ford Shale and Edwards zones and estimated drilling and completion costs range from $5.5 million to $4.5 million per well, respectively.

A large, independent oil and gas company is actively drilling its very sizable leasehold block and recently completed its #1-H Butaud into the Eagle Ford Shale, which initially tested at 17.5 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) and 2,500 bbls of condensate per day (BCD). Other operators in the area have reported initial production rates ranging from 5 to 9 MMCF and several hundred BCD per well, all of which are stated to be choked back to regulate production.
*
Mark Zouvas, CEO of ReoStar, stated, "We are very pleased to announce our entering into a definitive agreement to acquire the Eagle Ford shale assets, an area which has seen tremendous activity recently and is turning out to be one of the more rewarding unconventional gas plays in the US.* This opportunity gives the Company low-cost access to this reserve-rich play and allows us to continue with the operational success we achieved in the Barnett Shale, where we have successfully drilled and completed over 70 deep (9,000') shale gas wells. An important part of this transaction is our affiliation with ZaZa Energy, LLC and our ability to leverage the talent and experience of its staff in developing this acreage. We will draw on ZaZa's vast knowledge of the area and bolster our own technical capabilities at the same time. This acquisition has the ability to launch the Company's reserves and profitability to significantly greater heights."

In connection with the transaction, the Company has acquired the services of ZaZa Energy, LLC under the terms of an executed Exploration and Development Agreement, which includes tenured oil and gas staff experienced in geology, engineering and land acquisition. The terms of the transaction include the issuance of 12 million shares of ReoStar's common stock.


----------



## jancha

Hi Agentm. You take a lot of interest in this company & do quite a bit of homework on it. Can you explain in a nutshell why you like this company so much or is it just the location they're in? Rather than read thru this whole thread to get an idea as to why could you briefly explain? Cheers Jancha


----------



## Hatchy

If you're a potential investor and you want to get a good handle on the activities - you should be reading through the whole thread, the company reports and making up your own mind. Sounds like you want someone else to make your mind up for you?

My 2c.


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## estseon

Agentm

Going back on that report on Weston:

"The original plan was to drill to 18,405ft measured depth and drilling was cut short to reduce risks as several challenges were encountered whilst drilling. "

Is that a polite way of saying that they felt that they were in danger of losing control of the well, do you think? "Challenges" does not say a lot but juxtaposed with "risks" and knowing something of the pressure surges that they have had when hitting the fractures it suggests that the well was becoming a bit of an animal.


----------



## Agentm

hey  estseon

been away for a bit, just got back and saw some comments on the thread.

weston had drilling issues i believe and the jvp was not able to justify the costs of continuing to drill over and above the massive costs it had already expended on this unique underbalanced drilling process that had some initial problems, a less than perfect run really can hurt in drilling.  

it did encounter hydrocarbons throughout the lateral with pretty high background readings throughout.  kunde 3 did an frac experiment recently where they chose rock that had no natural fractures present and fracced some 1800 feet of lateral. it appears to me that the frac experiment worked and proved the theory that chalks with no fractured zones can be stimulated to flow with high yields of condensate.

despite the excessive secrecy surrounding the TCEI/conocophillips operations and more specifically the excessive secrecy on the  wells we have invested in in block B, i remain, as always, convinced the hydrocarbons are down there and also convinced its totally within the capabilities of fracture stimulation technology right now today to not only successfully frac these three  wells we have aready completed, but i also believe commercial flow is achievable in these wells and also future wells with greatly reduced costs.

i see TCEI/conocophillips now drilling a completely different completion technique in live oak, and i would not be surprised if the eagleford is now more on their minds and also that those oil pipelines were not built unless they had a clear expectation that the oil will flow at some historic rates not seen in the region before.  Reostar had noted they can see a lot of wells are being choked back big time on these shale wells.. 

all imho


jancha

a lot of info is available in this thread, i like adi on the basis i invest for an outcome, and all my research indicates the outcome adi is after, both by not diluting the sp with excessive cap raising and also by maintaining cash in the company with the sale of yemem, keeps me in the belief that should a jvp farmout be a success adi will be in a very attractive position for the high risk reward investor (should any remain on this planet)

i am looking forward to the next months ahead with interest as the cash value of adi makes it a curious share, unlike its jvp partners, there is next to no value for ADI's share in the sugarkane asset, just a minimal cash value.. will it achieve any gains in the future? will it become attractive to investors? who knows..??


----------



## jestex12

Update on Pioneers Natural Resources Drilling:

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Pioneer_Natural_Resources_Provides_Drilling_Update/c75551d7.aspx


----------



## Agentm

i see the next well is being drilled by conocophillips.

they just completed the eskew west 1H in 60 days and 5 days ago they spudded the baker 3 h well.


----------



## estseon

COP is very keen on that area. If the attributes that they are chasing follow a NE trend, that looks good for Weston and Kennedy.

Agent - are they still drilling the chalks, do you know? Or are they now drilling the shales?


----------



## Agentm

estseon, i do think i know what they are drilling but am reluctant to comment.

its been a different type of trading seen on adi lately, instead of massive price fluctuations on $300 worth of shares traded and 20% price drops on the sp, the volumes are appearing at a much higher and perhaps healthier rate.. good volumes are being traded above the .07 range

just after close the 250,000 order was filled.  

its imho possible to argue a case of punters getting in early on speculation on the prospect of farm out happening and the cash from yemen coming in also. buyers now may be of the view the pressure on sp may be more on the upside.  there must be a limit to how many shares will be available at these prices as the likely scenario  is that the bulk of the ones selling could be the ones who bought in at .06 ... to sell now would get you some 16% return.

27 million shares were issued @ .06    of which 40% would be held by the top 20 and seemingly there has been little change there,  it may be fair to say that max number of shares available for the current price for those wanting to sell ADI at a profit today would be 13 mill shares. but i doubt if all the new entrants would be selling out completely either..  in this past  16 days alone
this month the volume in ADI has been 6 mill shares traded.  i think some 10 million traded in may..  

i wonder if the volumes will be infinitely available  at .07 or if there may eventually be a trend above it? 

just a few observations,, probably nothing


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## estseon

Fair enough, agent.

But Marlene Olson is public information.

It is a vertical.
==========================================================
The completion operations consisted of 2 phases. In Phase 1 the Eagleford Shale was perforated over the interval 12,190ft - 12,300ft, fracced and allowed to flow briefly. Initial rates recorded were 1.293 mmcfgpd and 408 barrels of condensate per day before the well was shut in for 38 days. In Phase 2 the overlying Austin Chalk reservoir was perforated over the interval 12,100ft - 12,160ft and acid fracced on 12 February 2009. The well was briefly allowed to flow recording 1.430 mmcfgpd and 403 barrels of condensate through a 12/64" choke. 
===========================================================

So COP perforated and fracced 110 feet of Eagleford and it produced initial flows (using EME's conversion rate) of 537 boepd. 76% condensate in line with previous results.

They then added 60 feet in the chalks and flowed it briefly through a choke at a combined 546 boepd.


----------



## Agentm

tcei/conocophillips latest permit in live oak, these lateral are getting closer and
closer to our acreages, the marlene olsen 2h permit is just north of the  EME jv
vertical well marlene olsen 1


----------



## estseon

Looking at the map that you posted on 11th June, they are very busy in that small pocket of their acreage. There is a common orientation of NNW / SSE approx at 90 degrees to the Edwards rift fault. Is the interpretation of this: 1) that is where the strata is thicker / richer in condensate or 2) that is where they expect to find natural fracturing?


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> Looking at the map that you posted on 11th June, they are very busy in that small pocket of their acreage. There is a common orientation of NNW / SSE approx at 90 degrees to the Edwards rift fault. Is the interpretation of this: 1) that is where the strata is thicker / richer in condensate or 2) that is where they expect to find natural fracturing?




those two wells there in green, kennedy and weston, they are both sitting inthe thick of it, kennedy in the eagleford and weston a touch higher in the chalks

both untested - well kennedy has been tested on 1 feet of eagleford and flowed.

the answer for adi investors are very much inside those two yet tested wells.

conoco put in very substantial pipelines, two so far, just for the condensate issues.. and what an issue to have hey..

i am not convinced he two untested wells are dry.. infact every indication is completely contrary.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Hello All,

I am new here and greatly appreciate the valuable information that has been posted. I am hearing rumors about a big Eagle Ford oil well in Karnes County Texas by EOG Resources.  The well is the EOG #1 Milton Unit (API#42-255-31608) and it has supposedly tested at the rate of 1800 barrels of oil per day.  EOG is also planning a large 3D seismic survey of approximately 100 square miles in the vicinity.  About 14 miles to the west-southwest of this well Dan Hughes Company is drilling an Ealge Ford test: the 1H Darline well (API#42-255-31612).  Another interesting well, apparently an Eagle Ford test, has been permitted 32 miles northeast of the Milton well in Gonzales County.  The Modern Exploration #1 Texas Two Step (API#42-177-31979).  Anyone else heard anything about the EOG well?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hey Bubba those are pretty good flow rates and theres definately alot of activity in the area.

ADI and the jvps seem to be stuck in the slow mode waiting for a farmin partner I hope that soon they will make a decision to either go it alone or find a partner.

ADI is waiting for funds from the sale of its Yemen assets which should not be to far away then maybe we will see more activity in the area !!!


----------



## Agentm

hey bubba

the darlene well is being drilled right now and is being monitored closely here by me and there in texas.

the eog well was a wildcat, i was watching it but the completion report i had did not include any indications of what zone they were in and what rates were tested. will ask around and see what comes up.. those flow rates are impressive. do you know what the gas flow rate was?

the gonzales wells have been less on my radar, mainly because of the chalks hotshots field being well developed. i can think of a few more wells there that imho are looking a little deeper.. but i was following the pioneer and conoco and Weber/geosouthern wells closer in dewitt than the gonzales wells

the gonzales county modern texas two step permit is a re completion of an older well


did you ever follow the caskids permit near the centre of kenedy?

API #:  	42-255-31605

or the cheyenne petroleum young ruby well that was drilled a half mile north of it?

42-255-31365


----------



## Bubba Oil

Howdy Agentm,

I have not heard any gas rate for the EOG #1 Milton but I have heard the oil rate of 1800 BOPD from several people.  You know how these oil rumors work though - they are a lot like fish stories.  EOG is said to have an army of landmen out leasing in the area.  I believe the Cheyenne and Caskid wells are both Edwards reef tests.


----------



## Agentm

bubba

that eog is a very very impressive outfit, conservative and very experienced in the shale.. i believe they like oil a bit also..! 

the landman rumor is 100% correct, they are all over the court house,and following up all over the county

thanks for the fish story! i saw reostar do their fish story on the apache well

"A large, independent oil and gas company is actively drilling its very sizable leasehold block and recently completed its #1-H Butaud into the Eagle Ford Shale, *which initially tested at 17.5 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) and 2,500 bbls of condensate per day (BCD)*. Other operators in the area have reported initial production rates ranging from 5 to 9 MMCF and several hundred BCD per well, all of which are stated to be choked back to regulate production. "


reostar had to retract that wild claim a week ago publicly,  as they got their data from the grapevine, but apache did not publicly state the story was false!

the milton well sits a few miles north of the conocophillips bordovsky well (and if you believe local rumor mill, cop tell everyone they are pulling pipe there!!)  but discounting that amazing rumor completely,  the COP ops have completed, they cemented the liner, and imho its prepared now for a frac-  and the eagleford is my call where that well is going...

a few people i know are getting their ranches surveyed with the 3D seismic..  i think you may find conoco are doing similar numbers on their plan..


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm,

I agree with you that EOG is a good company.  They could probably use a good oil play because the are pretty heavily weighted towards gas.  I saw the announcement and subsequent retraction by Reostar and had a good laugh.  Are you following the Pearsall play in South Texas?  Not much info yet but it should be interesting to watch.


----------



## Agentm

bubba

your thoughts on the mueller well permit?  

looks interesting

Status #  682454
API # 255-31471 	OP # 588595   -   MORRIS, W. DALE INC.   
Approved ,Issued: 06/24/2009 ,Filed: Online  	MUELLER - Well # 1
02 - KARNES County 	

Reenter Vertical


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm,

The original well was drilled by Petrohunt to a depth of 17,000' in and area of shelf edge reef devlopment in the Edwards and Sligo formations.  It looks like the drilled a good spot but the formations must have been tight.  I have not seen the electric log from the original well.  Morris may be attempting a recompletion (or perhaps a horizontal leg) in the Edwards or Sligo.  Or they may be going after the Eagle Ford.  

Did you see the announcement by St. Mary on their Briscoe G 1-H well (42-479-40493) in Webb County?  
It tested the Eagle Ford at the rate of 4.4 MMCFG/d and 192 barrels of condensate over a 7 day initial flow period.  This well was drilled to a depth of approx. 7500' TVD (11,300 MD) and completed with a 3200' lateral and a 10 stage frac.

Bubba


----------



## Agentm

bubba

i saw the st marys announcement and also the blackbrush one, they have extensive acreages in karnes county also..

Tuesday, June 30, 2009
BlackBrush Oil selling off bulk of its producing assets


San Antonio-based BlackBrush Oil & Gas LP will sell 70 percent of its producing properties in order to focus on its Eagleford shale position. The sale of the properties will result in a consolidation of the company’s offices and, as a result, a 27 percent reduction in workforce will be implemented.

The sale of the properties will allow BlackBrush to pay off 100 percent of its existing bank debt and emerge as a stronger and leaner operation, according to company officials.

“We’re confident that by taking this action, we will be better able to provide improved operating and financial results than we could have done under the current operation,” BlackBrush CEO Scott Martin says. BlackBrush retains an interest in over 100,000 acres of land in South Texas for development.

Martin adds, “In addition, we will be in a great position to redouble our efforts on the midstream side by focusing our attention to projects in Dimmit County, Frio County and *Karnes County*.”

But Martin says the big opportunity for BlackBrush is in the Eagleford.

“Twelve to 15 Eagleford tests in the last few months all came in meeting or exceeding expectations,” says Martin. “The area is more condensate rich than other shale plays and is more attractive in this oil price environment.”

While the scope of its operations will decrease, BlackBrush and all of its affiliated companies will continue to operate, Martin says.



bubba.. are you familiar with all the COP eagleford wells thus far drilled and tested? are you aware of the reported flow rates in them?


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agnetm,

It appears to me COP is playing it pretty close to the vest.  Most of what I have learned about their wells is from your valuable posts.  One of their executives did refer to the Eagle Ford as "the big E" in one of the company conference calls.  I am hearing they are encouraged by their preliminary results but are having some problems drilling the laterals as long as they would hope and battling other technical issues.

B


----------



## choppy

Bubba Oil said:


> One of their executives did refer to the Eagle Ford as "the big E" in one of the company conference calls.
> B




Bubba if you reread the Conoco transcript you will see the the term "Big E Portfolio" refers to Big Exploration Portfolio,  not Big Eagleford Portfolio.


----------



## Bubba Oil

choppy said:


> Bubba if you reread the Conoco transcript you will see the the term "Big E Portfolio" refers to Big Exploration Portfolio,  not Big Eagleford Portfolio.



 Oops!  I listened to their presentation while I was doing something else - guess I better pay better attention.  Thanks for pointing that our Choppy.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Murphy has permitted an interesting Eagle Ford test in McMullen County, Texas.  This well (Murphy 1H George Miles 42-311-34139) is significantly downdip of the existing Eagle Ford wells and would stretch the play to the south.


----------



## jestex12

Bubba, 

This would make sense why StrandEnergy was approved a permit 10.19 miles SW of Cuero.  Everything seemed to be going north in McMullen and north of Kennedy in Karnes and Cuero in Dewitt.  But Murphy's along with Strand's recent permits seems to be indicating that the play goes further south than what was initially thought.

StrandEnergy permit approved 7/3/09:

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...PublicQuery=Y&name=BRANDT&univDocNo=485656331


----------



## Agentm

bubba and jestex -good to see the usa crowd take over this thread 

re the murphy permit, pioneer will drill their second eagleford well about 5 - 7  miles or so west of that well..

i have seen a photo of the 3d map that conoco is undertaking in live oak, i will ask the person who took it if i can post it up on this site

the 3d covers all of the north of live oak county from mcmullen to karnes and covers a portion of the adi region as well..

all the blackbrush and eog completions in karnes are now being listed as oil completions, they see their play as an oil field.

eskew west 1h, the conocophillips well in live oak was completed in the eagleford and produced about 5mmcfpd and 500 bopd from the reports i get.

the big conocophillips bordovsky well in karnes county is in the eagleford and is about to be fracced, i have been told anywhere from 140  - 240 tankers were on site on the weekend.  an impressive multistage frac to occur there.


----------



## Agentm

this is the 3d map that is being done in live oak..

very extensive 3d and imho the cococophillips operator must be extremely interested in the eagleford for them to undertake this






our sugarloaf 1 well sits just right of the white blank region there on the map.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm,

Nice work procuring the outline of the COP 3D in Live Oak County.  EOG has a large 3D shoot in the works in Karnes County and St. Mary has recently completed a 3D survey in Webb County.  Petrohawk has a new presentation up on their website with some good Eagle Ford information (IPAA/TIPRO Leaders in the Industry Luncheon 7-8-09).  I have included one slide from their presentation showing the wells they have drilled to date.

Bubba


----------



## Agentm

bubba, i saw that one and posted it up on other sites also..

for those who understand how big a multi stage frac can get, this is bordovsky setting up..  i hear some 240 tanks were on site,, i dont know the exact number.. if you look close you can see there are 2 rows there..

the frac operation is certainly attracting a lot of interest

looks like some nitrogen tankers maybe in the foreground perhaps,, COP like using that..


----------



## philly

Hi AGENTM & BUBBA OIL thank you for your informative posts. Whilst I am a long term holder of ADI the coy has failed to do anything for quite a while. It seems that ADI is trading simply on the basis that it has wells located  in what seems to be a prospective zone. By all reports other coys are very active in the zone whilst ADI seems very idle. What do you think ADI will do and what are the time frames. Your views appreciated


----------



## choppy

The rumors I have heard around South Texas are that Texas Crude is trying to sell their acreage position.  I assume this would include all partners as well but it might not.  In my opinion their acreage position would be worth alot more with a few good wells producing on it,  but I don't think they want to spend any more money in this commodity pricing environment.

These small companies just don't have the long term staying power like COP.  If something doesn't work right away and start producing cash flow,  they have to bail out of the play,  usually too early on.  Read up on the history of the Barnett Shale in DFW area and you will see that it took lots of perseverance to make that play work.

I wouldn't be surprised if some other midsized independent who wanted in the Eagleford play didn't buy out TCEI.  Like Chesapeake or a similiar sized company who needs to add some liquids to their portfolio.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm - That is an awesome picture of the Bordovsky frac operation.  Do you know the parameters of the fracture treatment?  My guess is roughly a 10 stage frac with 300,000 pounds of proppent per stage.

Choppy - I totally agree with you regarding small companies in the Eagle Ford play.  I think the small companies will be bought out by independents and the independents will be bought out by larger independents or majors.  It is like the cartoon where the small fish gets swallowed by a larger fish who in turn is swallowed by the big fish.  Ultimately this play could be developed on 80 to 100 acre spacing. When you consider the broad extent of the play that is a lot of wells and money!

Bubba


----------



## Agentm

philly said:


> Hi AGENTM & BUBBA OIL thank you for your informative posts. Whilst I am a long term holder of ADI the coy has failed to do anything for quite a while. It seems that ADI is trading simply on the basis that it has wells located  in what seems to be a prospective zone. By all reports other coys are very active in the zone whilst ADI seems very idle. What do you think ADI will do and what are the time frames. Your views appreciated




philly

adi announced its intentions a while back. it really has not failed to anything as you term it, but it has succeeded in seemingly not doing anything, which is its plan.

adi is not trading  simply on the basis this it has well located in a prospective zone, its trading with a plan in mind which it still follows.

adi is idle in the region as they have clearly said they would be..

the january road show presentation states its intentions

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/presentations/January-Roadshow-Presentation.pdf

Sugarloaf AMI (20% before royalties)
• Adelphi and partners acquired 23,000 gross acres (Sugarloaf) of Austin
Chalk between 2006 and 2008 on basis of nearby 2006 Kunde-1 discovery
which opened up a significant new trend
• Hydrocarbon indicators in old wells drilled through the Chalk confirmed the
trend and guided the Sugarloaf AMI acreage acquisition
• Since then, the trend (>350,000 surrounding acres) has been near fully
leased by other companies – including majors
• All recent wells in the Sugarloaf and adjacent Sugarkane area (7), have
recovered gas with high oil ratios
• Current focus is on better understanding the play – with emphasis
on economics and improving production rates


Sugarloaf Forward Plan
• Weston -1H: finish drilling up to 6,000 ft lateral - then
production test (Kowalik 50’ flare while drilling
if appropriate)
• Kowalik -1H: Further flow testing and well intervention
operations to attempt to increase well productivity
• Kennedy –1H: Consider stimulation of remaining 3,200
lateral
• Multi-well drilling program: Take a pause. Adelphi has no
commitment for further wells and will not commit until
risked economics are robust
Initial production
• Technical Review: Consolidate all geological, reservoir,
analogue, drilling and completion information plus
competitor activity
Kowalik • Take heed of economic conditions: Await reduction in well
costs (already ~20% down) and recovery in oil price outlook


shortly after that presentation AUT announced it could no longer fund its commitments to the 2 wells needed for it to keep the extended acreages they held, they went to TCEI and asked to save the situation, and announced a farm out with TCEI.. ADi having no choice and realising the partners they had in the jvp were basically broke, joined in the deal.. my view is that its way to premature to be farming out, and its a real shame the partners in this had no further funds..

ADI sold one yemen asset and is basically waiting for the jvp farmout to happen. should it not, they are funded with the yemen capital to undertake further works on the 3 wells so far drilled.




choppy said:


> The rumors I have heard around South Texas are that Texas Crude is trying to sell their acreage position.  I assume this would include all partners as well but it might not.  In my opinion their acreage position would be worth alot more with a few good wells producing on it,  but I don't think they want to spend any more money in this commodity pricing environment.
> 
> These small companies just don't have the long term staying power like COP.  If something doesn't work right away and start producing cash flow,  they have to bail out of the play,  usually too early on.  Read up on the history of the Barnett Shale in DFW area and you will see that it took lots of perseverance to make that play work.
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised if some other midsized independent who wanted in the Eagleford play didn't buy out TCEI.  Like Chesapeake or a similiar sized company who needs to add some liquids to their portfolio.





choppy adi and TCEI have a deal to farm out the region and i believe to still keep a (50%???) stake in it as a group. so the rumor of TCEI selling out is not one that relates to the 23,000 acres adi are in a jvp with tcei in.. 




Bubba Oil said:


> Agentm - That is an awesome picture of the Bordovsky frac operation.  Do you know the parameters of the fracture treatment?  My guess is roughly a 10 stage frac with 300,000 pounds of proppent per stage.
> 
> Choppy - I totally agree with you regarding small companies in the Eagle Ford play.  I think the small companies will be bought out by independents and the independents will be bought out by larger independents or majors.  It is like the cartoon where the small fish gets swallowed by a larger fish who in turn is swallowed by the big fish.  Ultimately this play could be developed on 80 to 100 acre spacing. When you consider the broad extent of the play that is a lot of wells and money!
> 
> Bubba




bubba, that was a very early photo, the tanks were just arriving, so plenty more were coming all day long..  12 stage multi frac at least.. its a 6000 foot lateral, on of the longest i have seen in the eagleford..

most of the regional eagleford competitors have 3000 odd feet generally

re big fish,, the idea is to be the most attractive and expensive little fish to eat out there in the pond


----------



## Agentm

Friday, July 10, 2009
A tale of two shale plays
Natural gas prospects pick up in Haynesville, heat up in Eagle Ford

With natural gas prices hovering just below $4 per million British thermal units, two Texas shale plays ”” one evolving, the other emerging ”” are attracting attention from companies looking to expand exploration and production.

In the evolving Haynesville play, smaller companies are starting to establish a presence on the fringes of the honey holes controlled by bigger drillers in a section spanning the northern Texas-Louisiana border.

*In South Texas, near the Mexican border, the emerging Eagle Ford Shale is drawing interest from major players as a cost-effective alternative to Haynesville.*

http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2009/07/13/story1.html


----------



## jestex12

FYI- From Petrohawks VP re: Eagleford 

http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/Headlines/2009/WebJuly/item42282.php


----------



## Agentm

jestex12 said:


> FYI- From Petrohawks VP re: Eagleford
> 
> http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/Headlines/2009/WebJuly/item42282.php




love it jestex

this bit is very upbeat..

One anomaly within the play is wells on the northeastern end of the field tend to flow about 100 barrels of condensate per million cubic feet of gas, while wells on the southwestern end are dry gas, likely due to an uplift. Stoneburner says that because of the difference between prices of gas and liquids, a well flowing at a lower volume of gas can be more economical than one with a higher rate due to the liquids it produces.

“It’s a great economic benefit to have a liquid component to it.”

When comparing the Eagle Ford to the Haynesville, “as you go down the list there are a lot of ties””all in all you’ve got two really good shales.”

One difference, however, is that the Haynesville has recoverable reserves of 7.5 Bcfe per well, while the Eagle Ford has 5.5 Bcfe. Why is that if the Eagle Ford has more gas in place?

“We don’t see any natural fracturing in the Eagle Ford while we see extensive natural fracturing in the Haynesville.” When the Haynesville is fracture-stimulated, the frac is effective and thorough, while an Eagle Ford frac does not penetrate as thoroughly. “We’re not draining as big an area.”

*But, he adds, 5.5 Bcfe for $5 million is nothing to complain about. “You can do the math on the F&D (finding and development costs) and it’s in the low $1s.”

Completion costs came down significantly after the first quarter when the inventory of frac jobs depleted and service companies were scrambling to keep crews busy and trucks working. “An amazing drop in stimulation costs occurred almost overnight. Our $3-million frac went down to $700,000.”
*
*The Eagle Ford is “a cool story” that came about in a short period. “We want to be in the best rock. It’s ben a great run to develop such a fun play.”*


----------



## sam76

Agentm said:


> *The Eagle Ford is “a cool story” that came about in a short period. “We want to be in the best rock. It’s been a great run to develop such a fun play.”*




I'm looking forward to some of the 'fun' heading ADI holder's way... 

the longer we wait the better the story turns out


----------



## Travis Albrecht

Agent M
What's up with the COP wells in Dewitt County? They drilled two wells (Koopman and Marlado) . Both have been just sitting there with no activity for a few months. My families land is located between the two wells (which is leased by GeoSouthern) and we are interested in what ever info you have.

Thanks


----------



## Agentm

hey travis

koopman and maraldo were part of an 4 well exploration program in dewitt. on top of that they drilled 2 more wells hooks and butler.

the koopman and maraldo wells are vertical pilot holes, which would have had some initial testing completed on the rock. once they put through a further permit then you can expect laterals on those wells.

you would be aware the butler well has had a further lateral added in the last months, as i believe hooks a while ago

these wells you need to keep a track of, one chalks well and the rest are eagleford

42-123-32122 	PIONEER NATURAL RES. USA, INC. 	JOHNSON GAS UNIT 	1 	Dewitt 	14740 	gas well 	G 	10/5/2006
42-123-32192 	WEBER ENERGY CORPORATION 	BUCHHORN 	1 	Dewitt 	17684 	oil well 	O 	12/30/2007
42-123-32193 	BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP 	HOOKS 	1 	Dewitt 	13313 	gas well 	G 	1/16/2008
42-123-32202 	GEOSOUTHERN ENERGY CORPORATION 	MIGURA 	1 	Dewitt 	16798 	gas well 	G 	4/4/2008
42-123-32208 	BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP 	BUTLER A304 	1 	Dewitt 	13573 	gas well 	G 	6/2/2008
42-123-32231 	BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP 	KOOPMANN A274 	1 	Dewitt 	16000 	gas well 	G 	11/16/2008
42-123-32252 	BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP 	MARALDO A403 	1 	Dewitt 	16000 	gas well 	G 	11/20/2008
42-123-32255 	PIONEER NATURAL RES. USA, INC. 	FRIEDRICHS GAS UNIT 	1 	Dewitt 	16823 	gas well 	G 	10/17/2008
42-123-32284 	WEBER ENERGY CORPORATION 	KRAUSE 	1 	Dewitt 	14000 	drilling in progress 	AP 	2/26/2009


i have added a map of the chalks and eagleford wells pioneer have drilled and are producing from, and we see pioneer also have filed the eagleford well as an oil completion like weber and eog have


----------



## Agentm

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...cQuery=Y&name=DREES+A-179&univDocNo=485674074


murphy oil has taken over the permit for the drees well that meridian has originally put a permit for in a year ago. obviously meridian has a partner or sold out completely to murphy

the drees well is east of our acreages and a few miles west of the conocophillips bordovsky well that is currently being fracced

murhy oil has 100,000 eagleford shale acres

its no slouch in the world of corporates,

these are its competitors

Principal Subsidiaries: Murphy Eastern Oil Company (U.K.); Murphy Exploration & Production Company; Murphy Oil Company, Ltd. (Canada); Murphy Oil USA, Inc.

Principal Competitors: Alberta Energy Company Ltd.; Apache Corporation; BP Amoco plc; Canadian Occidental Petroleum Ltd.; Chevron Corporation; The Coastal Corporation; Enterprise Oil plc; Exxon Mobil Corporation; Kerr-McGee Corporation; Marathon Ashland Petroleum LLC; Noble Affiliates, Inc.; Petro-Canada; RaceTrac Petroleum, Inc.; Ranger Oil Limited; Royal Dutch/Shell Group; 7-Eleven, Inc.; Southern Mineral Corporation; Suncor Energy Inc.; Texaco Inc.; Texoil, Inc.; Union Pacific Resources Group Inc.; Unocal Corporation.


http://www.murphyoilcorp.com/about/default.aspx

forbes has murphy ranked 169 in The 400 Best Big Companies


----------



## Agentm

jestex12 said:


> Bubba,
> 
> This would make sense why StrandEnergy was approved a permit 10.19 miles SW of Cuero.  Everything seemed to be going north in McMullen and north of Kennedy in Karnes and Cuero in Dewitt.  But Murphy's along with Strand's recent permits seems to be indicating that the play goes further south than what was initially thought.
> 
> StrandEnergy permit approved 7/3/09:
> 
> http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...PublicQuery=Y&name=BRANDT&univDocNo=485656331




jestex

murphy are in with meridian now, and i see dan hughes is looking a little south of runge..  maybe check that one out!

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...licQuery=Y&name=HALL+UNIT&univDocNo=485674070


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Thanks for the information!!  I'll keep my eye on it!! Things are looking prosperous!!!!

Jestex


----------



## choppy

Looks like the "fish" story on the EOG Milton well may be just that!  The completion report came out today, with 112 bbls of oil 131 mcf of gas and 28 barrels of water.

This well is not being held back,  it is on a huge choke (64/64) and has only 131 psi of flowing pressure,  the well is also on gas lift.   I think if you get too far updip you get into the oil part of the play, (not the gas condensate part that TCEI/COP are in)  and the reservoir doesn't have enough pressure to lift all of the oil.  The oil in this well is 43.8 gravity which means it is probably oil not condensate.

The well probaby started out at about 1000 barrels a day (it has already made 9200 barrels).  But it declined very quickly as it just doesn't have enough reservoir energy to move the oil through the tight rock (shale).

My theory is that the eagleford won't be as good under the oil part of the Austin Chalk (barring some advances in engeering.)  Tight rock (shale or sand) isn't as permeable to liquids as it is to gases.  In the Sugarloaf area,  it is likely that all of the gas and condensate exist as a gas only in the formation.


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Looks like the "fish" story on the EOG Milton well may be just that!  The completion report came out today, with 112 bbls of oil 131 mcf of gas and 28 barrels of water.
> 
> This well is not being held back,  it is on a huge choke (64/64) and has only 131 psi of flowing pressure,  the well is also on gas lift.   I think if you get too far updip you get into the oil part of the play, (not the gas condensate part that TCEI/COP are in)  and the reservoir doesn't have enough pressure to lift all of the oil.  The oil in this well is 43.8 gravity which means it is probably oil not condensate.
> 
> The well probaby started out at about 1000 barrels a day (it has already made 9200 barrels).  But it declined very quickly as it just doesn't have enough reservoir energy to move the oil through the tight rock (shale).
> 
> My theory is that the eagleford won't be as good under the oil part of the Austin Chalk (barring some advances in engeering.)  Tight rock (shale or sand) isn't as permeable to liquids as it is to gases.  In the Sugarloaf area,  it is likely that all of the gas and condensate exist as a gas only in the formation.




have to agree choppy

i know from landowners it dropped back to 675 bopd within a week, so once the charge came out it it has  a lot less flow alright.

i was given the impression TCEI always had the better acreages, and the northern aspect was always left for others to fight over.. maybe it will impact the longhorn acreages of AUT?  they would have to explain their acreages better perhaps.. i think excelsior acreages across atascosia are probably due for a test at some atage also.  tcei does have a strong presence there

the adi 23,000 acres do appear to be in the more favorable region..

i noticed the murphy presentation had the correct stars on it for the eagleford, but forgot about kennedy..

thanks again for your input choppy.


----------



## Bubba Oil

choppy said:


> Looks like the "fish" story on the EOG Milton well may be just that!  The completion report came out today, with 112 bbls of oil 131 mcf of gas and 28 barrels of water.
> 
> This well is not being held back,  it is on a huge choke (64/64) and has only 131 psi of flowing pressure,  the well is also on gas lift.   I think if you get too far updip you get into the oil part of the play, (not the gas condensate part that TCEI/COP are in)  and the reservoir doesn't have enough pressure to lift all of the oil.  The oil in this well is 43.8 gravity which means it is probably oil not condensate.
> 
> The well probaby started out at about 1000 barrels a day (it has already made 9200 barrels).  But it declined very quickly as it just doesn't have enough reservoir energy to move the oil through the tight rock (shale).
> 
> My theory is that the eagleford won't be as good under the oil part of the Austin Chalk (barring some advances in engeering.)  Tight rock (shale or sand) isn't as permeable to liquids as it is to gases.  In the Sugarloaf area,  it is likely that all of the gas and condensate exist as a gas only in the formation.





Wow that does not sound too encouraging for EOG and other companies in the immediate area.  I agree with you Choppy it is very difficult to move liquids through any tight rock.  This is especially true of shales in which the matrix permeabilities are measured in nano-darcies.


----------



## Agentm

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...icQuery=Y&name=EMMA+TARTT&univDocNo=485458985

choppy

xto took a look at the eagleford in the emma tartt vertical well in atascosia..  the completion report on the vertical test in the eagleford was listed in february 09.. you may want to compare or comment on that one.

its hard to spot its in the middle of the wilkinson lease.  look for the horizontal well there its right next to it


----------



## choppy

Agentm,

It is hard to base much on a vertical well test,  but it appears that the XTO well may end up having the same problem as the EOG well.  As a side note, geologically speaking it appears they are both drilled in a large regional graben that is known as the "Karnes Trough",  so it could be that the graben isn't the place to be for the Eagleford.


----------



## Agentm

thanks again for your very qualified response.

the "karnes trough" may also impact the chalks, i can see a few attempts seem to have been fairly unproductive. 

the conoco bordovsky well, which is about to test the eagleford, sits maybe 5 miles south of the EOG milton well..

this is what it looked like less than a week ago.


----------



## Outlaw

Leasing Activity has been strong throughout Gonzales County during the last several months. Griffith Land Associates has leased up a significant amount of the county, Does anyone know what company Griffith is buying leases for? It would be interesting to know who is making a move on the Eagleford in this area. EOG is picking up some lands on the Dewitt-Gonzales line.


----------



## Agentm

outlaw 

mot sure who is behind griffith, when i put up the lease map in gonzlaes there are many operators there, maybe marathon?

choppy

EOG put in a vertical permit, edwards and wildcat

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...PublicQuery=Y&name=MILTON&univDocNo=485683729

what are your thoughts on that? the karnes trough does produce from the edwards i believe


----------



## choppy

There is some spotty Edwards production in the trough,  but the good production is upthrown on the Fashing-Person fault.  I bet after drilling the vertical hole on the #2 Milton,  EOG will go horizontal again in the Eagleford or maybe even the chalk.


----------



## bart9

Any more information on COP's Bordovsky horizontal test? Despite the promoters trying to sell a gas trend....the maturity finger prints oil in Karnes, north of the local proximity to the Edward's shelf margin, is oily.  Did COP have any distinct EFS shale problems...pressure?.....even reminant pressure from oil/gas expulsion?....I'm in the same camp as PXD as to understanding the regional compartmentalization and impact on the trend's maturation and yields. I expect an oil test at the Bordovsky well.....with limited recovery...as experienced by EOG in the Milton....if the frac is controlled/constrained to the shales....unlike Petrohawks wells, were the "shale" is largely an interbedded limestone / shale sequence....up in Karnes the rock is marly...not as brittle as the Chalk.....and not holding the Lower Member EFS clastics seen over in Giddings.....I apologize for the rambling.


----------



## Agentm

bart

 ramble all you want... 

still not hearing anything on bordovsky, we know they set up day before 4th july, and its certain they are eagleford there. 

i agree they will be looking at an oil completion there like the other eagleford wells,  i assume it also allows for closer well spacings? is that correct?

dan hughes has aone drilling near falls, they are listed as a chalks and a wildcat..  wonder what they chased there when they finished the pilot hole.

the eog milton is some 5 miles north of the bordovsky bart,  i expect a different outcome myself to you..  i am told the view is that conoco has leases in the better acreages  and they have far higher expectations on their wells.. the live oak wells are already demonstrating potential and are not requiring lift at all.. and i believe adi acreages is right on trend with them

i am hearing the barnett shale is scaling down a lot and they are all talking about the eagleford now

this from saf

Safiande - 28 Jul'09 - 09:27 - 58631 of 58638

The Economic Impact On South Texas

Eagle Ford Shale

"The article The Eagle Ford Shale discussed the new shale gas discovery in that is beginning to boom in McMullen, LaSalle, Dimmitt and Maverick Counties. Petrohawk Energy now has a handful of horizontal wells in the Tilden area that are exceeding expectations in both amount of gas and condensate produced and quality of gas in terms of hydrocarbon components.

Not Like Past Oil Booms In South Texas

Petrohawk has now leased almost 200,000 acres in LaSalle and McMullen counties and now other oil and gas companies are following suit, paying up to $400 an acre or more. Only because the price of natural gas has been below $4.00 per MCF has the lid on drilling stayed put. Once the Henry Hub price of natural gas (the measure by which it is traded on U.S. futures exchanges) gets above $6.00 we will see a dramatic increase in Eagle Ford shale drilling.
One thing that makes this natural gas play different from past oil and gas booms is the fact that, like the Barnett Shale, there is a very good chance that a well will be productive anywhere in the leasehold area.
While the Eagle Ford shale is not uniform and has different porosity and quality of gas depending on where it lies, it is for the most part uniform throughout much of McMullen and LaSalle county. This means that once the boundaries of the Eagle Ford shale have been determined a program of infill drilling will begin to fill in the spaces.
This will mean the creation of hundreds of oil and gas industry jobs in this area of Texas. In the 1980's the small town of Tilden enjoyed a brief oil boom with the development of the Olmos sand. Production is still being made from a few wells but the impact on the area in terms of oilfield jobs has diminished greatly.
Once the full extent of the Eagle Ford shale is being explored we should see a dramatic boom in the number of service company jobs. There will be a need for wireline logging trucks, workover rigs, pipeline construction crews, water haulers, hotshot delivery services, lease construction and more. The number of oilfield jobs in South Texas that could result is very encouraging.
Alice Texas and Corpus Christi Texas, currently feeling the effects of the oil and gas slump, should get a big boost from the Eagle Ford shale in the coming months. Small towns like Jourdanton, Pleasanton, Tilden, Three Rivers, Freer (already home to many service companies) and Cotulla should see a number of oilfield jobs created by the upcoming drilling activity. Owners of every type of business should benefit as royalty checks and oilfield payroll money is pumped back into the local economy. Local tax coffers should see more revenue and this is good news for small town school districts.
Another Barnett Shale?


Differences Between The Eagle Ford Shale and Barnett Shale

While there are some very big differences in the Barnett Shale and the Eagle Ford shale we should see a similar rate of job creation. Barnett shale wells are much shallower, about 4000 feet shallower on average.
Eagle Ford shale wells cost more to drill due to the depth and because of more complex frac jobs that are required. However, the cost of drilling wells in the Eagle Ford shale will diminish with time and cost will become less relevant as the price of natural gas rises.
Another factor that makes McMullen and LaSalle counties an ideal location for a large gas field is the lack of any major city. In the case of the Barnett shale there are tremendous obstacles to drilling, including subdivisions, roads, golf courses, noise regulations, etc.
Another large headache to oil companies is the incredible number of parcels, some as small as thirty by fifty feet, on which gas royalty payments must be paid to landowners holding mineral rights. Most of the land in McMullen and LaSalle county is in the form of large ranches, which simplifies a number of things.
None of the obstacles seen in the Barnett shale exist in this sparsely populated part of Texas and this in itself will result in lower costs to oil companies.
What will the impact on the economy of South Texas be? Perhaps we can look to the Barnett shale for an example. In the Dallas - Fort Worth area it was estimated that the job creation effect in the past five years was equivalent to one Boeing aircraft plant opening every six months. These jobs largely resulted from drilling and completion of horizontal wells, pipeline construction and the trickle down effect on other professions.
In South Texas, should drilling in the Eagle Ford shale formation take off, there will be all kinds of jobs created besides oilfield jobs. As landowners get large royalty checks they often use this money for ranch improvements, bigger homes, cars and trucks and so on.
For an area of the country that has seen it's share of boom and bust oil activity, the Eagle Ford shale formation could mean quite a few lasting jobs."

http://www.energyindustryphotos.com/eagle_ford_shale_jobs_in_south_t.htm


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> bart
> 
> ramble all you want...
> 
> still not hearing anything on bordovsky, we know they set up day before 4th july, and its certain they are eagleford there.
> 
> i agree they will be looking at an oil completion there like the other eagleford wells,  i assume it also allows for closer well spacings? is that correct?
> 
> dan hughes has aone drilling near falls, they are listed as a chalks and a wildcat..  wonder what they chased there when they finished the pilot hole.
> 
> the eog milton is some 5 miles north of the bordovsky bart,  i expect a different outcome myself to you..  i am told the view is that conoco has leases in the better acreages  and they have far higher expectations on their wells.. the live oak wells are already demonstrating potential and are not requiring lift at all.. and i believe adi acreages is right on trend with them
> 
> i am hearing the barnett shale is scaling down a lot and they are all talking about the eagleford now
> 
> this from saf
> 
> Safiande - 28 Jul'09 - 09:27 - 58631 of 58638
> 
> The Economic Impact On South Texas
> 
> Eagle Ford Shale
> 
> "The article The Eagle Ford Shale discussed the new shale gas discovery in that is beginning to boom in McMullen, LaSalle, Dimmitt and Maverick Counties. Petrohawk Energy now has a handful of horizontal wells in the Tilden area that are exceeding expectations in both amount of gas and condensate produced and quality of gas in terms of hydrocarbon components.
> 
> Not Like Past Oil Booms In South Texas
> 
> Petrohawk has now leased almost 200,000 acres in LaSalle and McMullen counties and now other oil and gas companies are following suit, paying up to $400 an acre or more. Only because the price of natural gas has been below $4.00 per MCF has the lid on drilling stayed put. Once the Henry Hub price of natural gas (the measure by which it is traded on U.S. futures exchanges) gets above $6.00 we will see a dramatic increase in Eagle Ford shale drilling.
> One thing that makes this natural gas play different from past oil and gas booms is the fact that, like the Barnett Shale, there is a very good chance that a well will be productive anywhere in the leasehold area.
> While the Eagle Ford shale is not uniform and has different porosity and quality of gas depending on where it lies, it is for the most part uniform throughout much of McMullen and LaSalle county. This means that once the boundaries of the Eagle Ford shale have been determined a program of infill drilling will begin to fill in the spaces.
> This will mean the creation of hundreds of oil and gas industry jobs in this area of Texas. In the 1980's the small town of Tilden enjoyed a brief oil boom with the development of the Olmos sand. Production is still being made from a few wells but the impact on the area in terms of oilfield jobs has diminished greatly.
> Once the full extent of the Eagle Ford shale is being explored we should see a dramatic boom in the number of service company jobs. There will be a need for wireline logging trucks, workover rigs, pipeline construction crews, water haulers, hotshot delivery services, lease construction and more. The number of oilfield jobs in South Texas that could result is very encouraging.
> Alice Texas and Corpus Christi Texas, currently feeling the effects of the oil and gas slump, should get a big boost from the Eagle Ford shale in the coming months. Small towns like Jourdanton, Pleasanton, Tilden, Three Rivers, Freer (already home to many service companies) and Cotulla should see a number of oilfield jobs created by the upcoming drilling activity. Owners of every type of business should benefit as royalty checks and oilfield payroll money is pumped back into the local economy. Local tax coffers should see more revenue and this is good news for small town school districts.
> Another Barnett Shale?
> 
> 
> Differences Between The Eagle Ford Shale and Barnett Shale
> 
> While there are some very big differences in the Barnett Shale and the Eagle Ford shale we should see a similar rate of job creation. Barnett shale wells are much shallower, about 4000 feet shallower on average.
> Eagle Ford shale wells cost more to drill due to the depth and because of more complex frac jobs that are required. However, the cost of drilling wells in the Eagle Ford shale will diminish with time and cost will become less relevant as the price of natural gas rises.
> Another factor that makes McMullen and LaSalle counties an ideal location for a large gas field is the lack of any major city. In the case of the Barnett shale there are tremendous obstacles to drilling, including subdivisions, roads, golf courses, noise regulations, etc.
> Another large headache to oil companies is the incredible number of parcels, some as small as thirty by fifty feet, on which gas royalty payments must be paid to landowners holding mineral rights. Most of the land in McMullen and LaSalle county is in the form of large ranches, which simplifies a number of things.
> None of the obstacles seen in the Barnett shale exist in this sparsely populated part of Texas and this in itself will result in lower costs to oil companies.
> What will the impact on the economy of South Texas be? Perhaps we can look to the Barnett shale for an example. In the Dallas - Fort Worth area it was estimated that the job creation effect in the past five years was equivalent to one Boeing aircraft plant opening every six months. These jobs largely resulted from drilling and completion of horizontal wells, pipeline construction and the trickle down effect on other professions.
> In South Texas, should drilling in the Eagle Ford shale formation take off, there will be all kinds of jobs created besides oilfield jobs. As landowners get large royalty checks they often use this money for ranch improvements, bigger homes, cars and trucks and so on.
> For an area of the country that has seen it's share of boom and bust oil activity, the Eagle Ford shale formation could mean quite a few lasting jobs."
> 
> http://www.energyindustryphotos.com/eagle_ford_shale_jobs_in_south_t.htm





Mate Agentm

Well written and thanks 

I knew nothing about ADI until I started reading this thread and developed interest

But you proved to be a real champion with  your tip on SLA in July and looks like to repeat it in August with ADI tip. The other persons will be competiting with your top slot probably be Grace and Seaspirite if I am not wrong.

I learnt few things on ADI from   postings on this site and subsequent readings on this exploration.


Hope you be a winner and let me scratch some pennies to put on this stock


----------



## Agentm

i didn't post a map but i think this one shows that the eog leases are very much ones accumulated later on,  murphy took the leases over from meridian and have some good acres west of  bordovsky and towards karnes city

bordovsky is a lot more south of the karnes trough that choppy discussed


----------



## Agentm

bart9 said:


> Any more information on COP's Bordovsky horizontal test? Despite the promoters trying to sell a gas trend....the maturity finger prints oil in Karnes, north of the local proximity to the Edward's shelf margin, is oily.  Did COP have any distinct EFS shale problems...pressure?.....even reminant pressure from oil/gas expulsion?....I'm in the same camp as PXD as to understanding the regional compartmentalization and impact on the trend's maturation and yields. I expect an oil test at the Bordovsky well.....with limited recovery...as experienced by EOG in the Milton....if the frac is controlled/constrained to the shales....unlike Petrohawks wells, were the "shale" is largely an interbedded limestone / shale sequence....up in Karnes the rock is marly...not as brittle as the Chalk.....and not holding the Lower Member EFS clastics seen over in Giddings.....I apologize for the rambling.




i am hearing today that the conocophillips bordovsky multistage frac is currently progressing through the stages. thats the best i can do thus far bart9

if conoco know how its done and gets it right then TCEI will have the advantage of having a share in that intel on the frac.. which bodes well for the kennedy well that sits in the eagleford and needs to be opened up..


----------



## Outlaw

Bart9

Thanks for joining in the conversation. What type of recovery results would you predict when "shale" exploration moves updip of the Karnes Trough, into Gonzales and Wilson Counties. Multiple companies have taken large positions on the horst block that underlies "first shot field".  Being that the EOG well is performing poorly for a multi-million dollar horizontal with a massive frac, and is situated in a massive graben, could placement over a horst improve the potential yields? Do you perceive any significant differences in the Eagleford rocks as you move updip out of the Trough? There were some great chalk wells drilled in the 90's updip of the trough


----------



## choppy

Outlaw,

The better chalk production was not on top of the San Marcos Arch (First Shot Field),  it was on the flanks (Pearsall and Giddings Fields).  The reason for this is because the Chalk was alot thinner up on the Arch.  I think the Eagleford will work up there,  but I don't think it will be a real sweet spot because it will be alot thinner, and will be oil.  The Chalk and Eagleford are substantially thinner (50%?) up in Gonzales County as compared to in the Karnes Trough.


----------



## Agentm

from another site, it discusses the eagleford.. in gonzales,, they have high hopes for the play there  by the looks


Savoy Energy Corp. (SNVP.OB) Answers Questions about Eagleford Shale Formation

http://blogs.transworldnews.com/QualityStocks/Post.aspx?postID=43886

Posted on 7/28/2009 12:27:17 PM

Savoy Energy Corporation, the Texas-based oil and gas company focused on bringing old well sites back to life, is actively working the Texas Cretaceous Trend, the largest single pool field in Texas. The company has a special interest in the Eagleford Shale Formation, which has a history of long-producing wells, and holds a number of properties in the Gonzales County area of southern Texas. Savoy feels it can pull from 5,000 to as much as 140,000 barrels from a single vertical well.

In response to investor inquiries, Savoy has addressed the most frequently asked questions regarding their plans for Eagleford.


• Will the production be oil or gas?

In most cases, production will be oil, primarily above the 11,000 foot level.

• What is oil quality in the area?

Oil quality in Savoy’s area of interest varies from heavy to very desirable high-gravity crude.

• How much oil can be recovered from the initial target area?

Hundreds of millions of barrels are in place. Identifying the “sweet spots” for exploitation is key in determining what can actually be recovered. Savoy plans to start in areas of known tests or where high-quality oil shows.

• How much production can be expected from a good horizontal well at Eagleford?

Based upon the production profile of the best vertical Eagleford well, 300-400 BOPD (barrels of oil per day) can be expected, and possibly above 75 BOPD for an extended period of 5-8 years. A dual lateral well in the basal Eagleford may well recover 400,000 barrels of oil. The idea is to explore with vertical and exploit with horizontal. The sweet spots can be identified with vertical wells before taking on the higher costs associated with horizontal wells.

• Why are Savoy’s properties in Gonzales County considered prime for tapping the Eagleford?

The Savoy/Louis Zavadil #1 actually flowed 35 BOPD on test from the Eagleford back in 1978 before being plugged in search of higher deliverability. The well is also in close proximity to an Eagleford well that produced 142 MBO as a vertical completion


http://www.savoyenergycorp.com/index.html



back on topic a bit,, adi will release the quarterly tomorrow as we all know

but will it contain the magic farmout or will we stay in groundhog days for a whule longer?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well congratulations to AgentM for the July stock tipping competition now all ADI holders must hope he can make it 2 on the trot !

As for ADI well the quarterly seemed quite open and gives shareholders the best insight to whats happening behind the scenes for some time.

Flow rates, reserve estimates, Petrohawks activities were all mentioned its just a matter of time before we see some more onsite action how long tho thats the real question.


----------



## Agentm

i put adi in the stock tip comp on the basis they would farm out and get the yemen cash.  

those factors are still to be finalised so i anticipate much of the same with adi, with trojan possibly selling down more at the .065 region and groundhog days continuing until a farmout deal is completed.

from the adi quarterly

Sugarloaf prospectivity can be summarized as follows:

*• It is prospective for both the Chalk and Eagle Ford. Future completions may involve drilling horizontally in the Eagle Ford, then fracture stimulating to draw hydrocarbons via induced fractures from both the Eagle Ford shale and the Austin Chalk.*

• It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas – higher than the 50 to 100 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in Petrohawk areas)  

• The Kennedy well is believed capable of producing at rates comparable to the Petrohawk wells when fracture stimulated over the whole lateral (currently only 600’ has been lightly fracture stimulated and ~3,000’ remains to be multi-stage fracced)

*• Sugarloaf has similar geological attributes to the Petrohawk areas and if Petrohawk measured gas in place estimates of 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres are applied to the entire 23,000 acre Sugarloaf area, the Sugarloaf in-place resource size could be in the order of 7 TCF equivalent[/B]

adi have now give some clue on how they may approach both the formations. by fraccing both formations at once.  perhaps this is what conoco are currently doing..








from AUT presentation

When Aurora first reported on the discovery at Sugarkane, as well as the over pressured Austin Chalk, reference was made to an underlying formation that also portrayed reservoir quality as well as having a high organic content. At the time we referred to this zone as being the ‘New Chalk’ because of the calcareous chalk inter-bedded with the organic shales that was seen in core and on electric logs taken whilst drilling.

Following this discovery we undertook significant land acquisition programs in adjacent contiguous areas. During Q4 of 2008 a number of large US companies made announcements of a new shale play within which they too had made substantial land investments. This shale play trend has been named the Eagle Ford Shale and Sugarkane is located centrally within it.
Recent information continues to support the geological model of the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate field consisting of a localised pool of over pressured Austin Chalk directly above a regionally extensive Eagle Ford organic shale that is also over pressured with a now well established common pressure gradient of 0.8 psi/ft. This can be compared to a ‘normal’ pressure gradient of 0.45 psi/ft, meaning that the reservoir pressure is almost double a ‘normal’ gradient. Gross reservoir thickness across the Sugarkane field is between 180 – 250 ft, which is controlled by at least 8 fully logged historical wells (plus a large number of wells with less than full log suites available), 14 wells drilled in the last 4 years, 2D seismic and partial coverage by a 3D seismic survey. Whilst we make a distinction between the two horizons, they act as a single reservoir and have many similarities including lithology with calcareous (Chalk) interbedding being evident down through the Eagle Ford reservoir, hence the earlier designation of a ‘New Chalk’. Production from the Sugarkane Field has been fairly consistent across all of the recently producing wells. Gas being produced is very rich with 1250 British Thermal Units per cubic feet of gas (“BTU/scf”) and a significant condensate ratio of 150 – 300 barrels per million cubic feet of gas (“bbls/mmscf”).

These factors are important as they distinguish our production from elsewhere within the trend and from other ‘dry’ gas shales with ~1000 BTU/scf gas being produced only. This has a substantial impact on the commerciality of the play with higher BTU gas priced higher than low BTU gas and liquids being considerably more valuable than gas. Using current prices and the condensate ratios observed to date, liquids should account for over 60% of the value of the produced hydrocarbons from the field.


i will post an update on driling. conocophillips is drilling the marlene olsen 2 well right now

Eskew West started on the 1st April
Baker 3 started on the 5th May
Marlene Olsen 2H started on 28th July

same rig on each so the precision 550 rig is drilling a completion within 60 days





*


----------



## Agentm

petrohawk very upbeat on the shale, and have plans to acquire more acreages


Petrohawk Announces Second Quarter 2009 Financial and Operating Results




Production Averages 483 Mmcfe/d; Grows 17% Quarter Over Quarter; 2009 Production Guidance Raised to 58% Year Over Year Growth

Haynesville Shale Position Now Approximately 325,000 Acres; Eagle Ford Shale Holdings Reach Approximately 210,000 Acres

HOUSTON, Aug. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Petrohawk Energy Corporation ("Petrohawk" or the "Company") (NYSE: HK) today announced its second quarter 2009 financial and operating results, including record production, drilling cost reductions in the Haynesville Shale and Eagle Ford Shale plays, and increased production guidance for 2009. The Company also issued guidance for 2010 capital expenditures and production.

Petrohawk achieved continued improvements in drilling results and notable operational efficiencies during the quarter, contributing to above-plan production rates in the Haynesville Shale and Eagle Ford Shale. In addition, better than expected results from non-operated drilling contributed to production growth in the Fayetteville Shale. The Company's production for the second quarter averaged 483 million cubic feet equivalent per day (Mmcfe/d), a 17% increase over first quarter 2009 and a 200 Mmcfe/d (71%) increase over the same period one year ago. Total production for the second quarter was 43.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (Bcfe), 94% of which was natural gas. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which Petrohawk has achieved double-digit quarter-over-quarter production growth.

*"This quarter, our operations in two prominent U.S. shale plays, the Haynesville and Eagle Ford Shales, made key strides in further establishing productive areas and achieving operational efficiencies. Operational improvements have resulted in lower average costs per well and higher initial production rates which we believe will lead to increased returns on investment," said Floyd C. Wilson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.* "Petrohawk's operating staff has achieved these efficiencies early in the development of these plays with great success. Additionally, we are keeping pace with infrastructure requirements as we continue to work marketing channels to sell gas at the best available prices.

"We continue to be fiscally conservative, expanding our portfolio of hedges into 2011. Based on the combined effect of strong quarterly performance and positive hedge positions, we stand in an excellent position to continue our exciting pace of production and reserve growth."


*Acquisition of Additional Acreage in Haynesville Shale and Eagle Ford Shale*

Through August 1, 2009, Petrohawk has acquired or committed to acquire additional acreage in key areas of the Haynesville Shale including a prospective area in East Texas (Shelby and Nacogdoches Counties) and under an expanded AMI with EOG Resources in this region. *In South Texas, additional leases were acquired in both the Hawkville Field and undisclosed areas outside of Hawkville Field that are prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale. *In Northwest Louisiana, the Company has drilled or is in the process of drilling twenty-five wells within sections where acreage has recently been acquired. By year end 2009, Petrohawk expects that it will have drilled wells on approximately 40% of the sections in Northwest Louisiana within which the Company has acquired new acreage in 2009.

Operational Update

During the three months ended June 30, 2009, the Company expended $327 million on drilling, completions, seismic and infrastructure. Expenditures for land were $55 million. *The Company participated in the drilling of 30 operated and 102 non-operated wells during the quarter with a success rate of 100%.*


Haynesville Shale

During the quarter, the Company drilled a total of 13 operated and 19 non-operated wells in the Haynesville Shale. 

................

Petrohawk continues to experience drilling efficiencies in the play. In the first half of 2009 the spud-to-rig release time averaged 55 days, down from 59 days in the second half of 2008. The second quarter average drilling days, excluding two wells that encountered unusually difficult drilling conditions, was just over 46 days. Days from rig release to first sales decreased from approximately 31 days in the fourth quarter 2008 to approximately 16 days in the second quarter 2009. With the ongoing benefit of the decrease in drilling days, the various operational efficiencies being achieved, and the continued effect of service cost reductions, the forecast for drilling and completion costs in the second half 2009 ranges between $8.5-$9.5 million per well.

*The Company is constantly working to improve its drilling and completion operations and efficiencies. Petrohawk is currently evaluating 1) increasing the length of each frac stage and the number of perforation clusters/stage while keeping the number of perforations constant; 2) increasing the volume of proppant per foot of lateral; 3) utilizing various proportions of 40/70 Ottawa sand along with 40/70 Premium Resin Coated sand, 4) using 40/80 Hydroprop on an increasing number of wells and 5) increasing proppant concentration. While some time will be required to ascertain results, early data points to opportunities to improve both cost and performance, as well as to modifications that could potentially result in an even more effective completion procedure for Haynesville Shale wells*.



*Eagle Ford Shale
*
During the second quarter, Petrohawk drilled six operated wells and participated in the drilling of one non-operated well on the Company's Eagle Ford Shale position, known as Hawkville Field, in South Texas. *Initial production rates from the three operated wells completed during the second quarter of 2009 averaged 9.3 Mmcfe/d.* *The average initial production rate for all eight operated wells completed to date in the Eagle Ford Shale is 8.6 Mmcfe/d with a 6:1 gas to oil and natural gas liquids equivalency ratio, which corresponds to an effective 10.6 Mmcfe/d on an 18:1 equivalency ratio, *taking into account the Btu content of the natural gas and natural gas liquids. Production rates have averaged 6.0 Mmcfe/d over the first 30 days of production for the seven wells with at least 30 days of production history, or an effective 6.9 Mmcfe/d on an 18:1 Btu adjusted revenue equivalency ratio. Two of the wells experienced modest curtailments during the first 30 days of production, and after normalizing those wells to their estimated unrestricted production rates, the 30 day averages are estimated to be 6.6 and 7.6 Mmcfe/d, respectively.

*During the second quarter, Petrohawk operated two horizontal rigs in the field and recently added a third. The following wells were completed during the quarter:

    * Henderson-Cenizo 874 #1H was completed on April 27th at a rate of 9.1 Mmcf/d on a 25/64" choke with 4,012 psi flowing casing pressure.
    * Dora Martin 1716 #1H was completed on May 26(th) at a rate of 9.7 Mmcf/d on a 24/64" choke with 4,215 psi flowing casing pressure
    * STS-Palmert 944 #1-H was completed on June 17th at a rate of 9.1 Mmcf/d, on a 24/64" choke with 4,350 psi flowing casing pressure.

In addition to the above, the J.C. Martin 1850 #1H was completed on July 17(th) at a rate of 8.8 Mmcf/d and 50 Bc/d (9.1 Mmcfe/d) on a 24/64" choke with 3,710 psi flowing casing pressure.*

Petrohawk has achieved both improved production performance and drilling efficiencies in the field. *The first three wells drilled, which included pilot holes with extensive technical data gathering as well as setting intermediate casing, averaged 53 days spud to total depth*. The Company has now drilled a total of six wells without setting intermediate casing and without drilling a pilot hole, *and these six wells reached total depth of approximately 16,000' in an average of 18 days*.* As a result of this decrease in drilling days, as well as significant decreases in service sector costs, drilling and completion costs have been reduced from approximately $12.0 million to approximately $5.0 million per well.* These cost reductions have occurred while the average lateral length has increased. The first three wells averaged 3,620' with 10.7 frac stages while the last six wells averaged 3,990' with 13.3 frac stages. The last well completed, the J.C. Martin 1850 #1H, utilized 18 frac stages. *Petrohawk is using a similar approach in the Eagle Ford Shale to that in the Haynesville Shale, where the Company is making controlled changes to the original completion technique in an attempt to optimize completions. Although early in the field's development, Petrohawk is encouraged by these recent developments and believes additional efficiencies remain to be gained.*

The very rapid success of the Hawkville Field within the Eagle Ford Shale trend has enabled Petrohawk to obtain a significant amount of geologic data pertinent to the reservoir, allowing the Company to expand into other areas of the trend where it believes the rock quality could compare favorably to Hawkville Field. While building on its acreage position in the area of the field that Petrohawk believes to be commercially productive, *the Company has also acquired acreage in other areas, both along strike and updip to the shale formation in the Hawkville Field. Petrohawk currently owns or has contractual commitments to acquire approximately 210,000 net acres in the trend. The Company expects to drill several exploratory wells in the second half of 2009 to evaluate its new acreage.*



http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayR...STORY=/www/story/08-04-2009/0005071797&EDATE=


----------



## Bilja

Hey all,

I am a long time follower of this thread and think the information that you all provide is excellent.

I have a little holding in ADI (purley speculative) and wondering, when and if there will be some positive moves in the sp?  Also, on a best case scenario how high could the SP get?

Thanks


----------



## estseon

Bilja,

News awaited for ADI is receipt of Yemen monies and of farm out of Sugarloaf.

Farmout was expected to be done within 6 months starting from May.

Both could give a little boost to the SP. Further boost could be gained from market approval of new partner and the operations plan. Re-rating could happen following successful completion of Kowalik/Kennedy and Weston depending upon production flows achieved. Re-rating will then continue with additional successful completions. Market will be looking at flow rates achieved, well costs and drilling times (Petrohawk have said that they can drill a 16,000 ft well in 18 days but in geology that is not necessarily the same).

Target SP depends upon a few variables that cannot be quantified at the current time. It's a case of doing your own calculations.

AMI is about 23,100 acres
ADI has suggested 7 TCFGE in place for the Eagleford
EME has suggested that the Eagleford contains reserves = 150% of the Austin chalks so possibly add 2/3rds to the Eagleford shales
Recovery rate: agentm has produced some evidence for a 25% assumption
Oil/gas production ratio 250 barrels to 1 million CFG
ADI's diluted interest in the AMI should not be less than 10%
ADI has about 140 million shares in issue
You will need to speculate on oil and gas prices


----------



## Agentm

extracts from the pioneer earnings and conference call

less on the eagleford as they are still in early appraisal of the eagleford. with gas prices as they are they are staying low and keeping the cashflow on exploration tight.



http://seekingalpha.com/article/154...s-co-q2-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Scott Sheffield - Chairman and CEO

We are going to deliver free cash flow in 2009 and beyond, continuing to improve the balance sheet and our financial flexibility. It is important for us with our large acreage position of over 300,000 acres to find out the true potential of our Eagle Ford Shale resource potential and we should know that over the next six to nine months.



Tim Dove

Slide 10 a review of our South Texas drilling. Of course, we are not doing much drilling now other than for an Eagle Ford program, that Scott has alluded to. Our production was up in the first of this year compared to the first half of last year. That's because we had an excellent Edwards drilling campaign in 2008. Of course, we shut that down, due to the fact that gas prices were not cooperative during the time period. It goes to show you if we were drilling in the Edwards, we would have a substantial ability to ramp up production as we look forward.

A lot of that's coming from the fact we have completed the interpretation of our seismic across this wide swath of acreage and from all of the wells that we have drilled, some 150 plus wells. That has allowed us looking forward to identify about 200 optimized Edwards drilling locations for future drilling and those will be drilled of course when gas prices improve in order to meet our internal hurdle rates.

Importantly, as we drill through all those 150 wells, we drilled right through the Eagle Ford Shale sitting above the Edwards and we are just in the process of ramping up an Eagle Ford Shale a campaign as we speak.

Our first well that we reported on in the past incurred mechanical problems. We had a casing failure. We had a sidetrack. The combination of those altered the well trajectory, such that we only have a limited amount of the hole section in the bottom half of the Eagle Ford Shale, which is the more brittle and therefore more able to take a frac.

The result was out of eight planned frac stages, we have only got two we put away properly. We were encouraged with the fact that even with that mechanical issue that we have with this well, the fact that we have 3.7 million cubic feet a day equivalent was encouraging.

The program as we look forward right now will be a series of wells. The current thinking is we would drill a series of five wells back-to-back starting late August, testing various areas of this extensive acreage position we have, and all of those locations are currently picked. So we are ready to get after a substantial drilling campaign to prove up this resource base across Pioneer's extensive acreage.

Overall, the South Texas area is on decline as we are not drilling today, and of course that decline can be stemmed immediately upon putting the rigs back to work when gas prices cooperate.


............

Leo Mariani - RBC

Question on Eagle Ford. Obviously you've got that well that you drilled a little while ago. Just curious if that well went right to production and kind of how that's holding up? I know it was on a pretty limited frac.

Scott Sheffield

Yes. Obviously, it's on [hydrobolic] decline curve. I have not kept up with the production on it. But as Tim mentioned, we did not get very little of the well bore was into the pay zone.

..........

Unidentified Analyst

Then switching to the Eagle Ford, are you guys adding any additional acreage there?

Tim Dove

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

You are. Okay. The well that you drilled, was that in LaSalle County?

Tim Dove

It was in DeWitt County.

Unidentified Analyst

DeWitt County. Okay, all right. It does very helpful.

Xin Liu - JPMorgan

You mentioned you bought some Eagle Ford acreage. Can you talk about how much you paid for it on a per acre basis and how many acres?

Tim Dove

Due to competitive reasons, we're not at liberty to discuss that.


----------



## Agentm

extracts from the petrohawk earnings and conference call

fair bit of talk on the eagleford. and some interesting questions..



http://seekingalpha.com/article/154...tion-q2-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Floyd Wilson - Chairman, President and CEO

......* Another ongoing important activity in our combined evaluation of the Eagle Fort Shale in South Texas – that is another important activity. We have taken what we have learned at Hawkville, our discovery in South Texas, which ignited the entire Eagle Fort Shale play, you know began to evaluate other areas in that region that looked to us to be perspective.
*
More on that from Dick in a minute. Anyone that has followed Petrohawk knows that our business view is a multi-year view and conservative financial view that supports our expansion in existing and new areas, our priorities are significant production growth and reserve growth, paid with low operating costs, or active hedging program and our ever present attempt and successful I should say to gain technical advantages and efficiencies, which improve over time in these large scale resource plays.

We expect what is good to get even better and we're conservative managers of our capital structure. I will turn the call now over to Mark Mize to discuss our financial performance.


Dick Stoneburner

......... In the Eagle Ford, we operated two horizontal rigs, drilled six operated wells, and one non-operated well, and put three of the operated wells on production, resulting in 140% increase in production from 5 million a day to 12 million a day

Switching to the discussion of the Eagle Ford Shale trend, our excellent results in the Hawkville Field continue to support the belief that this discrete geological area appears to be a highly commercial field. The company drove drilled six wells in the quarter and completed three of them at an average IP rate of 9.3 million per day.

Similar to the Haynesville production practices, these IP rates where all obtained by producing the wells at a maximum rate on a 24/64 choke with average flowing casing pressure of almost 4,200 pounds. Additionally, we completed the J.C. Martin well in mid-July at a rate of 8.8 million a day and 50 barrels of condensate on the 24/64 choke with 3,710 pounds for casing pressure.

This brings the total number of wells on production to eight of which seven have been on production for at least 30 days. The average rate of those wells based on a 621 Gascon estate ratio was 6 million a day and it was 6.9 million a day when calculated using an 18 to 1 gas to and condensate ratio and using the appropriate BTU adjustment.

*Additionally, a few of the wells experienced some curtailment during the first 30 days, in which case the normalized 30 day average using conventional gas ratios against condensate ratios were 6.6 million per day and 7.6 million per day, when using the higher ratio assumption.*

While there is not sufficient production history to utilize the time zero EUR forecasting method that we presented earlier on the Haynesville wells, we are very encouraged with performance of the wells to date and confirm the belief that the EUR range should be in the 4 to 7 Bcf range.

*The economics of the fields have been greatly enhanced by the dramatic decrease in well cost*.* At the end of the second quarter, we had drilled six wells without intermediate casing, without drilling a pilot hole. Those wells have averaged reaching total measured depth of approximately 16,000 feet in 18 days from spud, which is a result in an average cost to rig release of $2.4 million.*

Combine that with a significant reduction in service costs, specifically pumping services and the result is total well costs that are averaging slightly less than $5 million. Similar to the Haynesville, we have been varying certain aspects of our frac jobs, in order to optimize the cost versus benefit ratio.

The most significant change within a significant increase in the number of stages. The last two wells that we have fraced, we have pumped 18 stages. This has decreased the average stage link in these wells to approximately 245 feet with eight per clusters per stage that are approximately 30 feet apart. While it is too early to determine whether this project will be more effective, there does appear to be evidence of a flatter decline curve in early data, which could have significant impact on the EUR.

*While we have focused the majority of our efforts to date in the area of the Hawkville field, we have been actively putting our geological experience to work in identifying areas and the trend that appeared to have rough quality, similar to what we have found at Hawkville.

These efforts have resulted in obtaining leases in several additional perspective areas in both the up-dip and mid-dip areas of the field. This leasing along with additional leases acquired in Hawkville has increased our net leasehold position to approximately 210,000 acres.*

Lastly, regarding the Fayetteville Shale, we have intentionally decreased our operated focus in the Fayetteville Shale, in order to ensure that timing development of our leasehold and Hayneville and Eagle Ford. As recently as the middle of the fourth quarter of 2008, we were operating 11 horizontal rigs in the field.

But have now decreased that to two rigs. However, due to the increased level of activity and exceptional operational results of our non-operative partners, we have been able to achieve steady and impressive production growth in the field. At the beginning of the year, our net production in the field was approximately 71 million a day and by the end of the second quarter it had grown to just over 80 million a day, or approximately 13% growth.

While we are still very positive about the opportunities set in the Fayetteville, we will continue to direct the majority of our capital expenditures to the Haynesville and Eagle Ford over the next two years as we develop our term leasehold in each field.

With that I will turn the call back over to Floyd.

.............


*Michael Hall - Stifel Nicolaus

Okay, fair enough. If I one – if I may one more, can you come at all on the exploratory counties and the Eagle Ford and kind of which direction you are heading, is up-dip north or northeast any commentary there or color?

Floyd Wilson

I know Dick would really like to talk about that, but I'm going to hold him back. It is highly competitive if we have – been reviewing some areas that are both for reef and back reef up dip if you will and we are very specifically targeting some areas that have a geologic story rather than just acreage. Beyond that it is so competitive down there right now that we are just not going to comment too much.*
*
Michael Hall - Stifel Nicolaus

Okay, kind of figured, but it was worth a try. Thanks gentlemen.
*
............

Subash Chandra - Jefferies

Yes. Good morning. I guess the question is for Dick. I think, Dick, (inaudible) I saw in the presentation, you referred to permeability in Eagle Ford sort of over a thousand Anadar season [ph]. And I was curious if you’re seeing that pretty much everywhere or if you’re seeing some variety to the perm? And then secondly, is there a tipping point for too much liquids in the stream?

Dick Stoneburner

Regarding perm, Subash, we have two core available to us at this point. The third one’s still in analysis. I think the 1.1 was the higher of the two. But the other one was not too far behind it. Though it was probably – I can’t, off the top of my head. It wasn’t higher than. It wasn’t quite as high as, but it was close.

In terms of liquids, I don’t think so, Subash. For one, it’s a great revenue add. But you’re comment is probably more addressed to performance. And you know, in this type of rock with nano-perm and in a highly fractured network that we’ve induced, we don’t think – and peers that I’ve spoken to, whether it be Marcellus or other areas of the Eagle Ford, I don’t think anybody is seeing, number one, any detrimental effects to date, or expect any.

It’s just not the same type of situation in a conventional high-perm reservoir where you have a retrograde condensate reservoir. Any liquids that drop are nominal. And your fracture network has sufficient perm to deliver those liquids and gas without a change. That’s our opinion.




petrohawk claim to be the first in the eagleford and everyone else followed

what is positive is that they are seeing the play through now.. for a long time the general trend was to just explore, now we are seeing the likes of conocophillips and petrohawk start development wells in the region right along the trend

another petrohawk permit appreared for mcmullen yesterday

DONNELL 1086 1H

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...Query=Y&name=DONNELL+1086&univDocNo=485703438


----------



## Bilja

Thanks for your reply Estseon, much appreciated.  I have been following for a while now and I guess its much more of the same waiting game.

AgentM - thanks for all your stella work


----------



## rock86

Hey Everybody,

I have been following this thread for a while now. I know that in this forum you are not allowed to offer advice on what stock to buy/sell. I want to purchase ADI shares, but I'm currently in a catch 22 situation. My car just carked it, and I'm looking for a new car atm, I was just wondering whether anybody thinks it's an idea purchasing the shares now, or will it still be a little bit before ADI releases some announcements. Bloody cars


----------



## Agentm

bilja

no probs, its not too hard to research a play once you get involved for a while, unfortunately this one has gone on for a long time then the cash ran out, and 90 days more of these ground hog days max  is needed to close the farmout or start doing things with capital already in the bank.

rock86.  no one can offer advise to you. good luck with the car problem..

btw   the eme agm had a few people i know attend, it was suggested in their presentation that the deal was in an advanced stages then.  but these stories dont mean a deal will be struck

all imho and dyor


----------



## estseon

bija,

no probs.

Two points re the farmout.

Firstly, Jeffries has been instructed and the JVPs are looking for the best deal from the most credible bidder - it has been noted elsewhere that Petrohawk is raising some more cash. The JVPs haven't spelt out their criteria but they are obviously looking for the longest carry on both drilling/completion costs and on infrastructure; they want accelerated development and proving up of the acreage; and they will want fast and cheap drilling and completion with no mishaps. So they will probably be looking at some organisation with track record and experience in the over-pressured chalk and shales.

Secondly, the package includes acreage held by TCEI & AUT that ADI and the other JVPs (EKA and EME - UK company) have no interest in. The deal has to suit their purposes as regards those other acreages.

That is bound to make it a bit more complicated.

Rock86 - if you need a new car before Xmas, it might be an idea to give priority to that purchase. There's no telling when the deal will be done; no telling when the completion operations on the 3 drilled wells will be completed and the wells tested; and, in particular, no telling when the ASX investors will start to recognise the prospective value of this company. Oh, and there cannot be certainty that a deal on acceptable terms will be offered to the JVPs.


----------



## Agentm

petrohawk did talk up the eagleford big time and they have plans for pipelines and a lot of wells in 2009


----------



## Agentm

http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=170927


Rosetta Resources Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2009 Results and Provides Update On Emerging Plays


Randy Limbacher, Rosetta's President and CEO, commented, "We are at the half-way mark in a challenging, but exciting year for Rosetta. *We are operating effectively and prudently in this environment by optimizing our organic drilling program, divesting non-core properties, and maturing our positions in the prospective Eagle Ford and Bakken plays.* These plays have the potential to add significant value for Rosetta shareholders, and our progress to date is clear evidence of our commitment to become a resource player. Our priorities continue to be preserving liquidity, protecting against commodity price downside and positioning for the recovery that is inevitable."

*EMERGING PLAY UPDATE

Eagle Ford Shale

The Company made significant progress during the second quarter in advancing its position in the Eagle Ford play. Evaluation of technical data from the Company's two vertical wells as well as continued regional work was ongoing. In addition, Rosetta increased its acreage position to roughly 35,000 net acres in the play which includes 31,000 net acres fully assigned and 4,000 net acres committed. The majority of the leases are 100% operated working interests. The Company continues to maintain an active, yet selective, leasing program based on favorable geoscience, petrophysical and engineering indicators.

Rosetta commenced horizontal drilling on the Springer Ranch #1H. The well is located in southwest LaSalle County, Texas. This horizontal well is currently drilling laterally in the Eagle Ford Shale interval at a measured depth of 14,276 feet (10,861 TVD). The well is targeting a lateral length of roughly 4,000 feet.

Additionally, the Company initiated a second Eagle Ford horizontal well, the Gates 05D #9-5H, which is located in northwest Webb County, Texas. This well is currently drilling at a depth of 3,210 feet and is targeting the Eagle Ford Shale interval at approximately 8,000 feet TVD.

Both the Springer Ranch #1H and the Gates 05D #9-5H are operated by Rosetta with a 100% working interest.*

FINANCING UPDATE

In addition, during the second quarter, Rosetta filed a universal shelf registration statement with the SEC and it has since been declared effective. *The Company does not have any stated plans to issue securities, but would consider doing so under certain circumstances, notably to fund an attractive acquisition or to fund follow-on activities in our prospective Eagle Ford and/or Bakken plays.*

2009 OUTLOOK

The Company continues to project its organic capital spending level at no more than its internally-generated cash flow. The majority of the current estimate for 2009 expenditures is earmarked for developmental drilling in the Lobo Trend of South Texas, recompletions in the Sacramento Basin, and exploratory tests in the Eagle Ford Shale and the Bakken Shale. Currently, the Company expects to spend $115 million of organic capital, which includes a significant Lobo drilling and seismic program ramp in late 2009, lease acquisition and drilling capital in the Eagle Ford, drilling capital in the Bakken, and a multi-well recompletion program in the Sacramento Basin. At this expected level of spending, the Company expects to achieve between 130-140 MMcfe/d of full year production, excluding acquisitions, divestitures, and possible contributions from the Eagle Ford and Bakken programs

"We continue to monitor the environment closely and adjust our activities and programs, as appropriate," noted Limbacher. *"We are focused on protecting liquidity and optimizing capital to minimize volume impacts. We are spending on our impact exploratory programs to build value for the future. *And we are staying diligent on the big and small controllable factors that will improve our relative position and allow us to emerge from this downturn as a stronger company."


----------



## Bubba Oil

El Paso has permitted an Eagle Ford test in southern LaSalle County just north of the Webb County line.  The El Paso 1H Briscoe-Nunley (42-283-32211) is located significantly down dip from Hawkville Field.  Has anyone heard anything new on the Hughes 1H Darlene or EOG 1 Milton wells in Karnes County?


----------



## Agentm

from saf, who researches this eagleford play like i do













http://www.stmaryland.com/Investors/August 2009 - print.pdf



This is Pioneer Drilling ( PDC ) transcript dated 6 Aug i.e. not to be confused with Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD ) who reported the day before. PDC is a land driller & rig fleet owner.

Pioneer Drilling Q2 2009 Earnings Transcript ( PDC ) Aug 6, 2009

Wm. Stacy Locke - President and Chief Executive Officer

*"I think we're also seeding a modest pick up in our South Texas market. Some of that for Pioneer at least is turnkey work. We have increased our turnkey activity. But I also think it's impart due to the Eagle Ford shale play that continues to develop -- we just completed a well or we just completed a drill in a well therefore a customer and there has been a number of well drilled. And it looks like that activity will continue to increase even this year."

“Unidentified Analyst
Good morning. At this point Stacy in terms of Eagle Ford, given the current prices on oil and the higher liquid content. It's logical that with those economics down there, you might see that pickup first, are you seeing any to that or you're seeing import activity that kind of thing going a little bit faster than maybe the Marcellus or Haynesville at this point.

Wm. Stacy Locke
Well, it still in it's infancy but there is very active leasing activity. There have been a number of wells drilled there probably several rigs running today that are drilling in the -- as I mentioned earlier we just finished drilling one. And I would say that activity will probably continue if not picked up towards the end of the year. There are some operators talking about really starting to drill it that evaluated further and I think its' a very attractive play essentially for the point you mentioned that some area that oil and other areas that condensate rich gas. So, I think it could be a pretty significant place.”
*
http://seekingalpha.com/article/154...ings-transcript?page=-1&find=eagle+ford+shale

Murphy Oil drilling their first well this month in the Eagle Ford. Big hitter
( market cap $10.99B ) Possible candidate for the farm out?

also keep in mind murphy took over the meridian acreages and have taken over the permit drees 1H ..  which will drill this month according to them.

Murphy Oil Corporation Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript Aug 6 , 2009

David M. Wood – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director

“While we have been quite active of late in exploration, things will naturally slow down in the second half of 2009. We plan to drill an Eastern Gulf of Mexico well later this year. We will also commence drilling this month on our Eagle Ford shale position located in south Texas where we are still actively leasing.”

*“We are still seeing many more opportunities on the horizon, and I’m looking forward to our group of wells in our Eagle Ford share acreage.”*

"Eagle Ford which will drill our first well here this month, I am hoping that will have some production tests from that well in November, and then if you get to put that online, and in the event that it does what we think it’s going to do, there will be something there as well. So, I like the momentum that we have here."


*“Michael Jacobs - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

If I could squeeze in one more on the Eagle Ford, you mentioned actively ongoing lease efforts; from a high level given where you’re at, I believe you’re between the Edwards and the Sligo reef; are you thinking of adding additional acreage more to the east or more to the west?

David M. Wood

Yes, the play in concept I think stretches in a pretty good length as a rhythm between the two reef trends you mentioned and we’re looking at all of that area. We’re primarily focused on the gas part here, but don’t preclude an interest in the oil part, and beyond that I really don’t want to hamper our lease guys, otherwise they’ll say it’s my fault for lease costs going up in certain areas versus others. So, I’ll bow to the pressure from them and say we’re still very actively leasing, very interested in the play, and having said that all we’ve got to go off is other people’s results because we have not drilled a well, but we’re going to fix that this month. The wells that we’re going drill, we’re going to core in and ultimately drill them horizontal and crack them. So, we’re very much climbing a learning curve ourselves, but there are a lot of other people active. We’ve been getting good experience from our British Columbia effort, in the Montney effort, we have a good idea what we need to do, and so we’re going to apply that here. Overall, I like the plan.”
*
http://seekingalpha.com/article/154...call-transcript?page=-1&find=eagle+ford+shale



and lastly


Anadarko ( APC ) have six wells & still learning.

Important player because of the Peter Fluor link to Texas Crude Energy / COP & the APC / St Mary / TXCO & Encana JVs generating pooled knowledge to crack open the current Block B wells & optimum completions of the new wells at Reckling, Rudolph etc

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript Aug 4, 2009

“Subash Chandra - Jefferies

Two quick ones here. On the Eagle Ford, any comment on I guess almost the half dozen wells that have been drilled, how many of them have been producing length of time? How the wells might have held up? Second, on the cash balances on hand, you know pretty enormous what plans are with what? If there are further things you might do to you know sell down interests and raise more cash by year-end?

Unidentified Company Representative

Yes. Subash, I shall go ahead and start with the Eagle Ford. I guess the way to put a frame around the Eagle Ford right now that we are very encouraged about it but its real early we have got the six wells that you have mentioned. We have seen rates as high as six million equivalent, out of some of those horizontals. From the Eagle Ford we also have Pearshall zones that we are testing out there, we have announced 10 million a day but what we are seeing is that some of the infrastructure is not adequate to really get good long-term data on these things like the Pearshall well is way choked back because of the gathering system out there. We’re having to build that out, so we can get the information we need. To-date, right, now it’s encouraging, but we've got a ways to go to really know exactly what we've got.”

"Doug Leggate - Howard Weil

Okay, great. Thanks for that. The only follow-up I have is just jumping back to the lower 48 and the Eagle Ford. It seems there has been some comments from one of your partners this morning about changes to operator ship. Can you just maybe bring us up to date as to what your plans are now that you guys are kind of running the show? And whether or not we'd expect you to accelerate activity down in that region?

Bob Daniels

I don't think there is going to be any change to our plan. We did pickup an operated rig here a few months ago, I guess. We didn't have to do that but we saw enough encouragement we wanted to start that process. And we'll probably have a couple of rigs running out there to continue to evaluate the Eagle Ford and also to test the pierce Saul as we go on. I don't think there is a change. What we wanted to do is have the partnership earn the acreage, spend their money to test it, and meanwhile we saw enough encouragement we wanted to start learning ourselves, so we put a rig out there a little early"



http://seekingalpha.com/article/153743-anadarko-petroleum-corp-q2-2009-earnings-call-transcript


----------



## Agentm

Bubba Oil said:


> El Paso has permitted an Eagle Ford test in southern LaSalle County just north of the Webb County line.  The El Paso 1H Briscoe-Nunley (42-283-32211) is located significantly down dip from Hawkville Field.  Has anyone heard anything new on the Hughes 1H Darlene or EOG 1 Milton wells in Karnes County?




not heard anything bubba, i think dan hughes is still completing their well, and eog have put in second permit on those leases, so a vertical followed by a horizontal next to it. which indicates the vertical will possibly be involved in monitoring perhaps? 

what are your thoughts?

bubba, do you hear anything on the farm out TCEI is doing yourself in houston (i assume your connected to the oil industry in some respect)??


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> not heard anything bubba, i think dan hughes is still completing their well, and eog have put in second permit on those leases, so a vertical followed by a horizontal next to it. which indicates the vertical will possibly be involved in monitoring perhaps?
> 
> what are your thoughts?
> 
> bubba, do you hear anything on the farm out TCEI is doing yourself in houston (i assume your connected to the oil industry in some respect)??




The EOG #2 Milton is currently drilling and it appears it could indeed be a vertical well originally.  I think you may be right Agentm the #2 well would be used to monitor the frac in the #3H Milton Horizontal well.  Also, EOG may be planning to take full diameter cores in the #2 well to get a better understanding of the rock properties.

I have not heard anything specific with regard to the TCEI farm out but I think there are many potential suitors.  In addition to the usual suspects (companies already active in the Eagle Ford) I would not discount the possibility of a new player such as XTO, Devon or similar company farming in the acreage.


----------



## Agentm

Bubba Oil said:


> The EOG #2 Milton is currently drilling and it appears it could indeed be a vertical well originally.  I think you may be right Agentm the #2 well would be used to monitor the frac in the #3H Milton Horizontal well.  Also, EOG may be planning to take full diameter cores in the #2 well to get a better understanding of the rock properties.
> 
> I have not heard anything specific with regard to the TCEI farm out but I think there are many potential suitors.  In addition to the usual suspects (companies already active in the Eagle Ford) I would not discount the possibility of a new player such as XTO, Devon or similar company farming in the acreage.




hey bubba

i heard they are still working on bordovsky, some production liner is needed there, pretty quiet on the site.  

the other eagledofrd wells in live oak are settling down and producing.

eskew west was drilled in record time, and i hear baker 3 smashed that drilling time.  the rig is currently on the  marlene olsen well



hey nioka now that eka and adi are basically trading on a parity, is this the time that you buy and sell between them?


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> hey nioka now that eka and adi are basically trading on a parity, is this the time that you buy and sell between them?




Maybe I am. Just not telling anyone about it. Oops..Until now. There is not a lot of opportunity most of the time.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> Maybe I am. Just not telling anyone about it. Oops..Until now. There is not a lot of opportunity most of the time.




lol..



eka is practically the same value as adi there would seem either to be value in one or complete miscalculation on another..

still accumulating currently, imho the fact adi has no value to it compared to a jvp member with half the share adi has in the sugarkane, and with adi holding further acreages in yemen and the cash from the sale of block 6 in yemen still to come, there must be some upside  coming soon

EME in the uk turned over some 6% of its shares overnight, some 7 million shares traded,  and i think they rose some 34% there

perhaps there is some interest in these eagleford explorers yet?


----------



## Lucky_Country

Although Im a firm beliver in the prospects of this company and the credentials of management  Im finding this long wait with no news very very frustrating.

We have been through many periods of lack of news flow and after 3 years Im sitting thousands of dollars down and we are no further knowing whats going on.

How long is this going to keep playing out like this ?


----------



## vinniesn

what is going on with adi partner EKA company. share prize is going up for last one week. I dont think last ann made any impact on SP. I think it could be one of two reason for rise in SP. 
1. director may be buying some more share or
2. capital rise at 6cents?


----------



## prawn_86

Lucky_Country said:


> How long is this going to keep playing out like this ?




Call me a cynic but i bet the management are still all raking in 6 figure salaries for no progress...

Go figure.


----------



## Agentm

prawn_86 said:


> Call me a cynic but i bet the management are still all raking in 6 figure salaries for no progress...
> 
> Go figure.




wrong..

prawn, you regularly put down adi, so it would be appreciated if you didnt just guess things and make things up.. your not an investor for a start, and as a moderator perhaps show some balance on the adi thread..


prawn.. the adi management of do not all take a 6 figure salary, (but your also forgetting adi made 1 mill profit in the first quarter) and your post doesnt really portray the truth at all, only one director is on a salary in six figures, chris hodge at $240k the chairman is working part time and taking a salary on days worked, one non exec is getting 20 k  and the other is not taking any salary

lets look at another random oil stock.. why not your oil stock bcc, it made a loss in 2008 of $2 mill

the directors salary total for the board of 5 and 3 managers $1.4 mill

but theres more

when you add to that the gravy train of bonuses for the massive losses of 2 mill, they get wonderful options and bonuses added for that massive loss and the total  salary and bonuses in the annual report is  a whopping $3.48 million!!!

imagine what they would have paid themselves if they made a profit!!

WOW!!


come on prawn, its about time you stopped spruiking bcc and slamming adi. every small cap oil explorer in the usa is having a tough time, and some like adi have deliberately shut down all ops for 12 months until the oil prices came back and the aussie dollar and drilling costs made it economic again. 

but BCC didnt just make a 2 mill loss and pay themsleves 3.4 million alone, they also issued 35 mill option to founder at 0.001 then another 12 mill also at 0.001  and 16 million shares at 12.5 to seed capital investors and then cap raised a further 80 mill at 0.25 cents.. 

prawn, if you want to talk about shale exploration that adi is undertaking  and if you look at where all exploration is occurring in the usa.. the shale plays and oil plays are the place to be, and adi is right in the thick of it. as is EKA and AUT

i hope you can come on this thread and start to talk with some level of balance and perhaps appreciate what adi and the partners are doing in light of the world crash and the crash of oil and gas prices..  and perhaps prawn on the bcc thread you can show some balance there and perhaps question the directors and managements salaries and free options there!!  good luck with your bcc investment prawn and lets hope the lee county exploration finds good chalks and oil.. what they dont want is gas..


----------



## Agentm

bubba

eog have their next permit, milton 4h

this one is listed as an vertical edwards well (person)

what are your thought now?  the milton 2 vertical is drilling away


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> wrong..
> 
> prawn, you regularly put down adi, so it would be appreciated if you didnt just guess things and make things up.. your not an investor for a start, and as* a moderator perhaps show some balance on the adi thread..*
> 
> 
> prawn.. the adi management of do not all take a 6 figure salary, (but your also forgetting adi made 1 mill profit in the first quarter) and your post doesnt really portray the truth at all, only one director is on a salary in six figures, chris hodge at *$240k the* chairman is working part time and taking a salary on days worked, one non exec is getting 20 k  and the other is not taking any salary




Interesting posting and observation on Prawn's comments.

I think some one should be moderating the moderators or there must be some frankness with a moderator to come clean and face the music to demonstrate fair ness in the forum

Thanks for your comments Agentum

I am a holder of ADI


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> bubba
> 
> eog have their next permit, milton 4h
> 
> this one is listed as an vertical edwards well (person)
> 
> what are your thought now?  the milton 2 vertical is drilling away




Agentm:

The EOG #4 Milton (42-255-31619) is permitted as  a vertical well southwest of the #1H Milton well. I would guess the #4 Milton well is another monitor well for fracture treatments in future horizontal wells.  I noticed on the permit plat there is also a #4H Milton Unit well shown (horizontal well in between the 1H well and 3H permit).  A frac in the #4H Milton Unit well could be monitored from the #2 Milton vertical well.


----------



## Bubba Oil

EOG has permitted another Eagle Ford well in the area of the Milton wells in Karnes County.  The EOG 1H Harper Unit (42-255-31260) is located east of the Milton wells and looks like it will have a longer horizontal leg than the other wells in the vicinity.


----------



## Agentm

lol 

i just posted exactly the same bubba..

just editing now

now i have to fill in 100 letters to waste some space..


the harper is 4000 feet

did you see the production figures for eskew, not too bad for a eagleford completion. i know COP is still learning

lasca butler is very interesting as they got amazing production from that well for a chalks well


cheers


----------



## rock86

just noticed that trades have been inscreasing the past few days; and the price has also risen, I know they both ain't that much but was just wondering if anybody had an explanation for the move.


----------



## choppy

Agentm said:


> lol
> did you see the production figures for eskew, not too bad for a eagleford completion. i know COP is still learning





AgentM,

What did you find out about the Eskew well?  Are we talking about the eskew east or the eskew west?


----------



## Agentm

hey choppy

local talk,, so we are talking landowners that own the minerals here only,  are told eskew west 1 h was settling down at 500 bopd.


eskew east 1h is not drilled, they are drilling the marlene olsen 1 h right now 

cheers


----------



## Bilja

Hey guys,

thanks for all your information and up to date analysis...its really great to know there are people out there willing to take the time to help amatures (like myself) learn and dabble in the stock market.

I had a totally unrelated question (sorry) and was hoping for some opinions on Prima biomed (PRR), if anyone could give me their opinion on this company at the PRR thread that would be great!!

Thanks!


----------



## oel2006

agentm & all, I see that this is the place to get current info on exploration activity in Live Oak. A US company I follow (Crimson Exploration - cxpo) has  made public that they are looking to drill (by year-end) a Austin Chalk/Eagleford/Sligo well in Bee county very close to the Sugarkane field. They came out with a new presentation showing their prospect including referencing other wells and operators in the area. I would like to learn more about this play. The boards comments are much appreciated.


----------



## Agentm

hey oel2006

thanks for the heads up

and welcome to the forum, which is dominated by texans and adi holders and combinations of both

the presentation is indeed interesting

they like the logs in the sturken well and the old mobil well, i posted the mobil
logs a while back myself here.. it had a pretty big kick in the chalks and eagleford.. so the crimson acreages would have to be propsective for the chalks and eagleford combined imho

that region has been hot property in terms of leasing, and crimson has some 
2000+ acres there i see.. there is a permit called warley in bee county which is obviously the first exploration well for crimson

the acreages may well border our acreages and conocophillips..




http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9MzQ4MTQwfENoaWxkSUQ9MzM2ODA3fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1


----------



## oel2006

Thanks agentm for taking a look at this. Could you guide me to some must read posts or other info on this play.


----------



## Agentm

oel2006 said:


> Thanks agentm for taking a look at this. Could you guide me to some must read posts or other info on this play.




the region is discussed here on this thread and if you flick back through the pages you will see plenty of regional info.. also on site called hotcopper.

bubba

i hear that as late as last week the bordovsky well was still fraccing

the caskids permit in kennedy is being drilled now, a massive rig is set up in town there


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

The Caskids well is a horizontal Edwards Test, I believe.  Of course they will be drilling through the Chalk/Eagleford to see the Edwards.


----------



## oel2006

Agentm, what kind of flow rates are operators getting in the Austin Chalk/Eagleford and in the Edwards? 

If I understand this correctly, the current thought is to drill horizontal wells into the eagleford and have the frac reach into the Austin Chalk. Is this correct?


----------



## Agentm

hey choppy, your right its a wildcat and edwards permit.

oel2006.

there have been some pretty high ip's on the chalks and eagleford. going back through the thread i have posted data on the ip's of all the chalks wells and some of the recent eagleford wells.

even with low flows like 4mmcfpd, the wells would be producing somewhere between  1000 - 1200 bopd ($30 mill PA in oil here)   the oil is what its all about here..

the plan i believe for the jvp, with both the eagleford and chalks being active, is as you have stated, to drill more of less mid way in the two zones and frac into both regions.. i gather the frac technique would be a little more complex than just a standard frac on the eagleford.

COP are doing many variations and many different well completions right now, the latest trend is away from the earlier underbalanced and slow ROP drilling  to fast over balanced drilling and i am assuming multistage fracs..


----------



## EEE

Did anyone ever hazard a price target for if things go well at Sugarloaf? The quartlery says 7 TCF equivalent is a possibility. 

Anyone care for an educated guess? (as I can't provide one)


----------



## Agentm

hey eee

valuations done by hartleys in feb 09 see's upside on $1.50 based on what they knew then, and no consideration for eagleford at that stage, just chalks and yemen and cash.. since then the yemen deal went through for one of the two yemen blocks adi had, cash is still to arrive.

in the 2008  annual report chris had this to say on the chalks (remember chalks was all they talked about, under strict orders to not mention the eagleford at that stage)

Overall,  the  Sugarloaf  plus  greater  Sugarkane  area  is 
thought to occupy at least 200,000 acres with a resource 
potential  of  500 million  barrels  of  condensate  plus  3 
TCF of gas.  *Sugarloaf area mean potential reserves are 
estimated to be 50 mmbbls of condensate plus 300 BCF 
of gas – of which Adelphi’s share is 10 mmbbls and 60 
BCF. *


recently in the half yearly chris at adi released this statement regarding the region and talked up for the first time the secondary and imho larger target that ConocoPhillips finally opened up to and publically stated in early 2009 was a big part of their future exploration.. the primary target- *the eagleford shale*  adi are now free to discuss the eagleford but not to discuss the COP wells atm in any detail. 

Sugarloaf prospectivity can be summarized as follows:

• *It is prospective for both the Chalk and Eagle Ford*. Future completions may involve drilling horizontally in the Eagle Ford, then fracture stimulating to draw hydrocarbons
via induced fractures from both the Eagle Ford shale and the Austin Chalk.

• *It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas – higher than the 50 to 100 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in Petrohawk areas)*

• *The Kennedy well is believed capable of producing at rates comparable to the Petrohawk wells when fracture stimulated over the whole lateral (currently only 600’ has been lightly fracture stimulated and ~3,000’ remains to be multi-stage fracced)*

• *Sugarloaf has similar geological attributes to the Petrohawk areas and if Petrohawk measured gas in place estimates of 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres are applied to the entire 23,000 acre Sugarloaf area, the Sugarloaf in-place resource size could be in the order of 7 TCF equivalent.*


so based on in place resource of 7 tcf in the eagleford and the production from the eagleford at kennedy and the conocophillips wells @ 250 bo per 1 mmcfg  there is reason for speculation that the eagleford and chalks could be a massive winner for adi..  so how much more than the  $1.50 figure based on chalks and yemen in feb does the massive eagleford target give adi??   

these are hartleys figures for the chalks and yemen only


----------



## mfunksta

Agent M,

I've followed this stock for a long time.  U average more than one post a day, and have done for years.  How is it that you're so into this stock?  What incentive could you possibly have for being so involved?


----------



## rock86

mfunksta said:


> Agent M,
> 
> I've followed this stock for a long time.  U average more than one post a day, and have done for years.  How is it that you're so into this stock?  What incentive could you possibly have for being so involved?




Well, my guess is that Agent M has lots and lots of shares... hahaha: or maybe he's even a director


----------



## estseon

If you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.


----------



## sam76

estseon said:


> If you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.




here here!

bah, why can't two words be enough for a post these days, lol 

I'm thankful for the tireless research AM puts in to this stock and play.


----------



## rock86

estseon said:


> If you have noted the quality of his posts, you might conclude that agentm does more research than most. He has extensively researched operators in the region and posts updated information on their reported results from drilling. In most cases he provides links that can be followed to verify the information. There is a lot of activity and interest in the region currently and, so, much to report. I certainly appreciate the information and the follow-up explanations and, from comments posted by others from time to time, so do other followers of this board.






sam76 said:


> here here!
> 
> bah, why can't two words be enough for a post these days, lol
> 
> I'm thankful for the tireless research AM puts in to this stock and play.




yeh no doubt, some of his info. on his posts have definately helped me deciding in investing in ADI in particlular, but also other companies as well. Now according to Agent M it's just a waiting game for ADI, and I'll be waiting


----------



## Agentm

most of the data i post is purely regional, eee asked about things and i answered, and a few texas investors are also asking things every now and again.. like choppy.. if it upsets people its happening no one has complained to me , i have had no warnings from the mods for discussing regional wells and the eagleford play here at all.. 

some people ask questions. i answer if i can.  

also every quarter the major players in the eagleford will report their progress, swift, anadarko, murphy, apache, st mary, petrohawk etc etc.. so a lot of data comes out then, as i openly state, there are others posting data on other threads like saf,, hell it takes a few seconds for me to repost that,, he also posts things i find.. if you know how to use the internet then you configure it to send info to you that you want to know about, i dont spend all day researching, if i feel like spending 10 minutes every so often trolling into the web on all the shares i like then i do so,, what fascinates me is that by doing so, you get an onslaught of attacks for having done so, they just appear and dont like talking about the share, the asf site was designed to discuss shares and i simply contribute,, theres a crowd of posters that  spend their time attacking me personally,, and despite it being against the protocols of the asf site, the mods dont do anything about it,,  just a bunch of clowns out there that are flaming and trying to bait me so as  keep the thread off topic..  

if the likes of mfunksta are upset about the research posts then so be it, you can put a poster on ignore and i think you can put a thread on ignore also.. why let it bother you if someone posts on a thread?

adi is in hibernation, we all know that, they announced that zero activity is their objective in 2009,, and investors have to wait for the TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on...  i post whats happening on trend and closer to home.. but adi is not changing direction in a hurry right now,, its dead in the water and badly in need of a deal to be finalised,,  sp is really at cash value and ground hog days continue..

all that any investor can hope for (and it applies for EKA and AUT) is that tcei does get this huge farmout deal done and dusted, then i guess the aussie jvp wakes up and things being to happen.. otherwise anyone can exit for the cash price thats on offer atm..  

if its ok with everyone i would be happy to just discuss the eagleford and adi..  cheers


----------



## martyfar

Hiya agent

well I for one, absolutely appreciate your posts ...many thanks for the information, and as many thanks for your  "opinions" ...keep up the good work  !!!!


----------



## otnixo

I just registered and this is my first post.  I have been reading this thread for about a week and have learned a lot about the eagle ford shale.  My interest is because I am a landowner in Karnes county and the property is close (about a mile) to the two EOG wells currently drilling off of county road 261).


----------



## philly

Hi AGENTM, 
I have been a holder of ADI since it was spun out by Arc Energy. I have even posted a few times on this thread. I say good on you for your informative posts I have certainly learnt a tremendous amount from them. I am prepared to sit and wait for ADI to take off. As for others you don't have to read the posts its your choice. I'm sure AGENT M isn't going to worry. As for me good on you AGENT M


----------



## gdaf

AgentM - you write "TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on."

How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal.

Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> most of the data i post is purely regional, eee asked about things and i answered, and a few texas investors are also asking things every now and again.. like choppy.. if it upsets people its happening no one has complained to me , i have had no warnings from the mods for discussing regional wells and the eagleford play here at all..
> 
> 
> 
> all that any investor can hope for (and it applies for EKA and AUT) is that tcei does get this huge farmout deal done and dusted, then i guess the aussie jvp wakes up and things being to happen.. otherwise anyone can exit for the cash price thats on offer atm..
> 
> if its ok with everyone i would be happy to just discuss the eagleford and adi..  cheers




Dear Agentm

I am not sure what others will comment on this. But personally I learnt a lot from your posting and found they were very educative for many like me.
Please do not make changes in your style of posting. There are many useless postings made here like any forum but generally quality of ASF postings are very good and above average. It is because people like you and few others understand the technical stuff and contribute for the larger audience. 

Regarding some one's question if you are a Director of ADI or not ! I am amused as it was a complimentary for you if you are not a director of ADI. If you are then it is a great bonus of your unbiased reporting. There are many name sake company directors who may have the millions to put stake on certain company but keep the knowledge or lack of it, themselves. So why do you worry mate ?

Please continue the good work and in a democratic world do not change your postings.


----------



## Agentm

gdaf said:


> AgentM - you write "TCEI operator pull a rabbit out of their hat and get a massive deal with only a few operators in the usa could manage to take it on."
> 
> How come you're so sure this is a massive deal, and equate it to pulling a rabbit out of a hat? From my conversations with management, around $10m would be needed to frac our existing wells and theoretically allow the JVP to achieve significant production. Of course the management cannot elaborate specifically on any part of the farmin, and therefore the size of the deal, but I'd be interested to know why you consider this to be a 'massive' deal.
> 
> Additionally, it thoroughly confuses me with the amount of investment and attention that currently exists in the Eagleford why a deal hasn't been snapped up at this stage, and I'm sure other investors are feeling the same. Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production. My only explanation is the recent economic disaster has left some very cautious, wounded investors and nobody wants to back a small capped play. It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you. I for one am baffled that we don't have a deal yet.




gdaf

i ask you, how come you dont think its a massive deal?

what equations are you using on the deal..???  imho its easy a $100 mill deal, the only operators with that sort of capital this current month are down to a few, petrohawk being one.

you kinda contradict you own belief and say this in your own post

"It doesn't help though when you see everybody else in the area raising and spending hundreds of millions around you"

i agree with that, i see everyone spending 100's of millions,  petrohawk just raised over $620 million for their expansions into the eagleford

you speculate that a deal should have been snapped up by now...  i think any deal of this size doenst get snapped up, if your about to spend 100's of millions and be the operator of a project like this one, imho you do massive due diligence and you look at things very carefully..  i know what i am saying is the opposite to your view, but  i cant recall any deal in the industry where you jump in with haste and dont calculate all the possible outcomes carefully.. 

what typically happens during the farmout process is:

1.	data room
2.	short list of companies
3.	negotiation of key elements of the deal
4.	negotiate the terms of a farmout agreement
5.	sign the farmout agreement

during the processes of discussion with any number of candidates, there could be many deals happening all at various stages. 


there is a need to get a move on, and get the deal sorted and the forward plans in place, this deal is not one where you are looking for a partner to do an a few exploration wells of a new field, this farmout is about making sure the partner you involve has the cash in the bank and is fully capable of funding and finishing the entire field development of this project. 

the exploration phase is over, its all about getting the development of the entire field sorted and up and running. 

TCEI knows the eagleford and chalks is condensate rich and so does  everyone in the oil industry, thats why there are as many wells drilling into the eagleford and chalks.  each month a new operator is starting their show in karnes county, dan hughes, eog, and conocophillips  have drilled this year, and we know murphy is about to start also. The TCEI sugarkane jvp has enough there to make the region extremely palatable to many large operators.. we have the best acreages in the eagleford and we have the chalks above also active and  flowing hydrocarbons

everyone knows this eagleford is a new play, its very attractive to the oil industry, and because adi acreages in karnes  hardly have any gas in the return and its mainly condensate,  this oil field is one that will attract a lot of interest.

imho if you take the view that no interest was there in this farm out,  the jvp would have closed the data room by now, and looked at raising options such as capital and continuing on for a while longer with the 3 laterals. but the announced plan was to get a deal signed this quarter, so not much time left.  if nothing was on the table there would be no point in continuing in leaving the data room open and trying to flag interest, no deal of this size can be negotiated and closed in a space of 3 weeks..  

imho my speculation is that there would be more than likely deals in progress that may eventuate in a singing off and it would be only down to a handful of contenders..

gdaf you say this

"Surely if all that's been written about our acreages and the surrounding areas is true, our JVP is a number 1 draft pick for a large cap to pluck out and spend a tiny fraction of their investment budget to get us into production."


imho its not about attracting a large cap just to allow them to spend a few dollars on getting the wells on production, thats not what TCEi nor what the jvp is in this play for, imho they are in it to see the total acreages developed..

any group of high risk investment houses could do a quick cash injection short term and boot these wells up and cash in on the profit, but your missing the point of what the farmout is about..


Adelphi will now join some of the other joint venture partners in the Sugarloaf AMI to contribute equity to this joint farmout effort which will result in sufficient equity being available to attract a significant E&P company or investor. It is envisaged that the incoming party will earn equity by carrying the farmout parties including Adelphi through a drilling and well stimulation work program in a fixed time-frame. Details of the terms of any farmout will be
advised at the time they are concluded.

Pending finalisation of the farmout arrangements, it is expected that field operations within the Sugarloaf AMI will be limited.

*From a strategic perspective, a successful farmout will result in Adelphi retaining meaningful equity in a valuable resource project and be carried through a significant work program with little or no funding by Adelphi.* This preservation of capital for Adelphi during the current difficult financial environment is an appropriate strategy at this stage of the development of
the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford plays in the Sugarloaf area. These promising resources must be developed using state of the art horizontal drilling technology and fracture stimulation which have proven to be highly capital intensive during this current early stage of field appraisal and development.
*A successful farmout and subsequent aggressive work program will generate significant momentum for the project, as well as allow the leasehold acreage position to be managed proactively.*


imho the objective is to make sure the farmout partner is funded, is capable and has the desire to be part of what TCEI and the jvp objectives are, and it goes far beyond just gettign a funded partner to complete a few wildcat wells.. its about the whole acreages and the completion of a farmout that is looking for a full field development of the acreages  

all imho and dyor


----------



## gdaf

look agent - you're probably right in that they're seeking a large deal to fully fund the field development. I just wanted to know the detail on what made you think it was going to be a larger rather than smaller deal, and you've answered that.

I would assume this limits the potential suitor to a handful of co's. However, questions need to be asked:

- If nobody signs by the end of the quarter, does the JV have the capital to attempt flows from our existing laterals? Last time I checked, Adelphi was the only partner in a good position to fund forward development, and we don't even have that cash in the bank yet. There's very little chance of going back to the market to raise funds. 
- What would stop a buyer just waiting on the above to occur to further de-risk their investment? Why commit to spending now when you can wait until flow results are on the table?

I feel as strongly about the prospects of our acreages as anybody, I just want to discuss all the possibilities. I don't have a firm view that a smaller deal on just the existing wells would be done, I just put it up there for consideration. There's every possibility a deal will be done before the end of the quarter, but if not, what then?


----------



## Agentm

good questions..

if no deal?

adi goes ahead with the yemen capital and we know regionally these wells turn a profit..  each completion that these operators do regionally into the eagleford teaches them what is working and what didnt work.. and you cant hide from your competitors what you did on a frac.

adi is ok in financial terms. and adi would just soldier on in the sugarkane

with a deal... 

adi has a self funded project in the sugarloaf acreages and then can look at plenty of new projects..  will become an even more exciting company..

if a debt laden small cap like azz can trade from .4 to .40 then back to its .25 today on the strength of a background gas show (no flares), a failure in the edwards test and absolutely no production on its acreages..  then i imagine a debt free small cap like adi may manage an equally stellar trip into orbit should it  move forward either way into the eagleford..  

adi has the advantage of having a geologist running the show and that accounts for a lot, the company is running very lean, and not allocating options, not paying exorbitant fees to the directors and keeping itself in a very low profile and saying little while in the background trying to achieve the goals of getting the yemen cash and a farm out in place.. with those two things done adi will be firing on all pistons and surging ahead, without a farm out adi will still be able to open up the wells and make a profit 

all imho and dyor


----------



## gerkin02

Agentm,
           As a significant holder of both adi and azz, I detect a little jealousy on your behalf towards azz.

It dosent matter if you have the best of something,you still have to market it.

Adi and azz are different plays.The only similarities are that they are both involved in the eagle ford.

Blind freddie can see that once the yemen cash is received and a farmout is announced that adi will be significantly rerated.

Unfortunately no news equals no moves.

I would love to see adi rocket to 30c in a few months.

Agentms comprehensive coverage of the eagle ford shale is predominately the reason for my decent stakes in both these stocks.

With natural gas prices looking to improve into 2010 and oil holding or trending up as well,the eagleford will see a lot more action into next year.

Hang in there and all the best.


----------



## Agentm

gerkin02 said:


> Agentm,
> As a significant holder of both adi and azz, I detect a little jealousy on your behalf towards azz.
> 
> It dosent matter if you have the best of something,you still have to market it.
> 
> Adi and azz are different plays.The only similarities are that they are both involved in the eagle ford.
> 
> Blind freddie can see that once the yemen cash is received and a farmout is announced that adi will be significantly rerated.
> 
> Unfortunately no news equals no moves.
> 
> I would love to see adi rocket to 30c in a few months.
> 
> Agentms comprehensive coverage of the eagle ford shale is predominately the reason for my decent stakes in both these stocks.
> 
> With natural gas prices looking to improve into 2010 and oil holding or trending up as well,the eagleford will see a lot more action into next year.
> 
> Hang in there and all the best.




lol

firstly gerkin.. please dont make assumptions about me personally, i am tired of the onslaught and free licence here on this thread towards me. i know i have made no remarks about you personally and i am a bit shocked your joining the ranks of the others..  i know plenty of people who invested in azz and exited at the highs, fully understanding the company would be raising capital,  and i have no animosity to them, i am happy for any investor in any share to make a great return, after all thats one of the objective imho..

personally i dont want to be defending myself to you, but as you are making personal remarks about how i feel toward azz then so be it, your forcing my hand and reluctantly i have to rebuke this nonsense..

"if a debt laden small cap like azz can trade from .4 to .40 then back to its .25 today on the strength of a background gas show (no flares), a failure in the edwards test and absolutely no production on its acreages.. then i imagine a debt free small cap like adi may manage an equally stellar trip into orbit should it move forward either way into the eagleford.."

that was a straightforward statement, an observation of azz, totally correct in every respect, one that  that contains no criticism of any nature, nor what your claiming to be jealousy, i am staggered really.. wtf is going on in peoples minds?  gerkin its purely comment, an observation.. and obviously its not inappropriate to speculate and draw an analogy that adi would achieve some sp momentum like azz achieved


i will refrain from making any personal comments about you gerkin, but you seriously need to calm down a bit and keep it less personal.. 

i apologise to the adi investors here and will digress o/t here for a moment

azz has a market cap of some $53 mill has  a debt with convertible notes (AZZG) of 9,342,965 shares -last buy back price was $1.82.   so adding the two together if you take out the debt then AZZ is valued atm at about $73 mill by those purchasing the share.  not bad on the back of the vertical well results which i say shows the edwards to be noncommercial and there being a gas show only in the eagleford, *no flares at all*.  We know from regional reports and the reports from our wells that our experience in the eagleford and chalks is different.  pioneer reports this :*As we were drilling the wells in the Edwards play, we regularly had to flare gas as we drill to the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford formations*.  



a cashless jvp partner, eka, is trading with a market cap of $4.6

aut has cash (some 6 - 8 mill) and has a market cap of $23 mill

ADI has cash of coming (some 6 mill) and a market cap of $9 mill

these are all observations, and all correct..

all imho and dyor..  

gerkin, as much as i would love to discuss o/t the issue you mention of marketing.. please dont get me started on what i actually think about azz and gdn and their style of reporting  or what you call marketing... i will refrain atm from comments here and on the azz threads about that for the time being!  adi will never join that style of reporting even in the worst economic crisis.. they do show some professionalism in that regard

again all imho and dyor..  and any further banter on azz can be done via pm as far as i am concerned..


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> adi is ok in financial terms. and adi would just soldier on in the sugarkane
> 
> while in the background trying to achieve the goals of getting the yemen cash and a farm out in place..




I imagine that achieving completion on a sale of assets in this current environment is going to be a significant feat - at least it's not being sold off to a struggling company... and surely only a matter of legality. 

If there's no deal - I guess we'll see another raising to make use of some of the potential in the shale. 

AgentM:
Any ideas as to how long ADI can sit in the background for? By this I mean how long till the cash runs out (albeit slowly by good management)? My reason for asking is I wonder if these matters might drag out until the US recovers (maybe years).


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> I imagine that achieving completion on a sale of assets in this current environment is going to be a significant feat - at least it's not being sold off to a struggling company... and surely only a matter of legality.
> 
> If there's no deal - I guess we'll see another raising to make use of some of the potential in the shale.
> 
> AgentM:
> Any ideas as to how long ADI can sit in the background for? By this I mean how long till the cash runs out (albeit slowly by good management)? My reason for asking is I wonder if these matters might drag out until the US recovers (maybe years).




hey hatchy

i am starting to think that anyone looking at this deal right now would be crazy to walk from it.

if you go to the court house right now in karnes county, it is swarming with landmen, i am told they have never seen anything like it, compared to a few years ago when it got busy there they thought that was huge, but right now it is insane

TCEI hs leased these acres at about $300 an acre.. now we see some staggering action in the county

the latest lease offering  is 3 X 3 X 1.. $1100 all up.. you get $500 for 3, then $500 again for 3 and $100 on the last..

and i hear no one is signing..  

adi are sitting on a very impressive and very attractive lease position..

imho the best acreages in the county, the ones we have, are needing a huge forward plan to get it all happening.. 

so if the deal does not go off imho anyone walking must be confident they can do better, but i cant see how..


will TCEI and jefferies get it done, well i think they have something pretty amazing to offer, 2 active zones and condensate rich rock below..

as you say hatchy if no deal is struck adi fully intends to go forward..

re how long they have,, adi is pretty relaxed atm, they have plenty of cash from yemen so the company cant fall over, and has a good outlook in terms of how to spend that capital in the future, and unlike the other 2 partners, should no deal transpire, adi is not facing a commitment to 2 wells as AUT are, nor cashless as EKA are, so they have managed to achieve one of the two objectives for 2009. get cash and in the most severe economic downturn to achieve that is not an easy task..

what they have still is one further block in yemen to sell imho

and of course a few weeks now to get the farmout deal over the line, which is frustrating as they have absolutely no influence on the outcome nor the success of the deal, its entirely in TCEI and jefferies hands

thats how i see the situation atm..


----------



## Agentm

the petrohawk presentation (thanks saf)

Petrohawk ( HK )
Barclays 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conference Sep 9 , 2009


“Eagle Ford Shale
~210,000 net acres
~1,500 net drilling locations
1 Bcfe Proved Reserves
7.0 Tcfe Resource Potential “

Forthcoming HK well locations are primarily northwards
towards the SK/SL AMI Blocks A & B acreage “ increasing
condensate yield “

















from the adi summary in the quarterly

Sugarloaf prospectivity can be summarized as follows:

• *It is prospective for both the Chalk and Eagle Ford*.
Future completions may involve drilling horizontally in the
Eagle Ford, then fracture stimulating to draw hydrocarbons
via induced fractures from both the Eagle Ford shale and
the Austin Chalk.

• *It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million
cubic feet of gas – higher than the 50 to 100
barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in
Petrohawk areas)*

• T*he Kennedy well is believed capable of producing at
rates comparable to the Petrohawk wells* when fracture
stimulated over the whole lateral (currently only 600’
has been lightly fracture stimulated and ~3,000’ remains to
be multi-stage fracced)

• Sugarloaf has similar geological attributes to the Petrohawk 
areas and if Petrohawk measured gas in place
estimates of 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres are applied to the 
entire 23,000 acre Sugarloaf area, t*he Sugarloaf in-place
resource size could be in the order of 7 TCF equivalent.*


----------



## Agentm




----------



## estseon

It should be remembered that the farm out does not just concern the AMI but also the substantial acreage shared by AUT & TCEI - that's how it all started. The deal with the new partner (according to the public statements) will be a package including rights and obligations as regards the other acreage. So, it will be a complex balancing act to make it fair and equitable and the new partner will have early drilling obligations as regards that other acreage as well as early completion and drilling obligations as regards the AMI. With that, there will also be infrastructure considerations.

That is possibly why they allowed themselves 6 months to negotiate something in the first place. That is also possibly why they brought in Jeffries. There's a 3-way negotiation. ADI/EKA/EME will have to be satisfied that they are not subsidising TCEI/AUT in relation to the other acreage.


----------



## Agentm

repost of info (again thanks saf for your great research)

Pioneer ( PXD ) :Barclays Capital CEO Energy/Power Conference

September 10, 2009

“Substantial Eagle Ford Shale resource potential”






http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9MzUwNTQ4fENoaWxkSUQ9MzQwMDM3fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Murphy is also a candidate for the farm out.

Murphy Oil Corp

Barclays 2009 CEO Energy Power Conf Sept 10, 2009

http://www.murphyoilcorp.com/ir/pdf\Barclays_Sept_09_Murphy_Oil_DMW_website.pdf












saf also noted some conoco rrc submissions


The field designation to which Eskew & Lasca relate as per the earlier post from agentm is the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field which as per Burlington ´s submission is “a single field from 11,360 feet to 11,662 feet & which is bounded by the Pecan Gap Shale and below by the tight Buda Limestone, both of which provide reservoir pressure seals.” At the time of the RRC classification the field contained six wells ( Kunde #1, Baker #1, Kunde #3 , Kennedy ( TCEI ), Baker #2 & Marlene Olsen )

“OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131
THE APPLICATION OF BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO., LP TO ADOPT FIELD RULES AND CONSIDER PERMANENT GAS WELL CLASSIFICATION FOR ALL WELLS IN THE SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS) FIELD, LIVE OAK AND KARNES COUNTIES, TEXAS”

The status of these wells as per the examiners report is as follows:-

The discovery well for the field was the Burlington - Kunde Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a vertical well and was completed from 11,440 feet to 11,520 feet. This well was permanently classified as a gas well based on PVT analysis performed on September 12, 2006 and submitted for the well during a hearing held on February 9, 2007 in Oil & Gas Docket No. 02-0250021. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a Constant Composition Expansion (“CCE”) at pressures ranging from 8,000 psia down to 500 psia.The original reservoir pressure was 8,653 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 5,072 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.5 mol% methane and 10.4 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 32.4% at 3,000 psia. The liquid sample had gravity of 57.5 degree API and a straw color.

The second well completed in the field was the Burlington - Baker Family Trust
Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,071 feet to 12,248 feet TVD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on April 14, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 12,022 psia down to 1,616 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,678 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,216 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 67.1 mol% methane and 7.2 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 13.3% at 2,014 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.0 degree APIand a straw color.

The third well completed in the field was the Burlington - Kunde Lease, Well No. 3.The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 11,805 feet to 14,405 feet MD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on June 27, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 10,000 psia down to 500 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,029 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,669 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysisindicates the full wellstream to be 61.7 mol% methane and 10.1 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 27.5% at 3,000 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 52.9 degree API and a straw color.

The fourth well completed in the field was the Texas Crude - Kennedy Lease, Well
No. 1H. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,232 feet to 12,253 feet TVD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on November 20, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 9,000 psia down to 500 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 7,975 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,435 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure.Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.5 mol% methane and 10.2 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 29.5% at 3,500 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.8 degree API and a straw color.

The fifth well completed in the field was the Burlington - Baker Family Trust Lease,Well No. 2. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,165 feet to 12,316 feet TVD. No PVT analysis was performed on this well.

The sixth well completed in the field was the Burlington - Marlene Olson Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a vertical well and was completed from 12,026 feet to 12,213 feet. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on December 18, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 12,015 psia down to 2,430 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,439 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,422 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 67.7 mol% methane and 7.0 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 16.5% at 2,430 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 54.0 degree API and a straw color.

“Liquid hydrocarbons produced at the surface from the subject wells are the
product of condensation and should not be classified as crude petroleum oil. Because the liquids produced from the wells are not crude petroleum oil, the subject wells should be classified as a gas wells.”

www.rrc.state.tx.us/meetings/ogpfd/ogpofldrules/02-61131-frl.pdf


----------



## Agentm

some ip's for rosetta on the eagleford.. which continue to have a 100% strike rate across all operators it seems


Rosetta Resources Inc. Provides Operational and Financial Update
Thu Sep 10, 2009 5:30pm EDT

HOUSTON, Sept. 10, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 
Rosetta Resources Inc. ("Rosetta") (Nasdaq:ROSE) today provided an update on several operational and financial matters, *including updates on key drilling programs in the Eagle Ford Shale*, the Alberta Basin Bakken Shale and the Sacramento Basin, as well as updates on its hedging program and liquidity. In announcing these items, Randy Limbacher, Rosetta's President and CEO commented, "We have been on a path to differentiate our company and strengthen our competitive position as a resource company. *Our practice is generally to provide comprehensive program specifics as part of our routine quarterly disclosure; however, given the interest in our emerging programs, we believe it is timely to provide this interim update. While it is still early in these plays, we believe today's announcement offers some evidence that we are creating significant value for our shareholders through a combination of operational success and financial discipline.*" Among its recent achievements, Rosetta announced the following:

Horizontal Eagle Ford Shale Program

Springer Ranch #1H Well Results

Rosetta Resources has successfully completed its first horizontal Eagle Ford
well, the Springer Ranch #1H. This well is located in southwest LaSalle County, Texas. Rosetta has a 100% working interest in the well and roughly 13,000 net acres under lease in the Springer Ranch Area.

The Springer Ranch #1H well was re-entered and drilled to a total measured depth of 15,240', which includes a 4,000' horizontal wellbore drilled through the Eagle Ford Shale at a true vertical depth of roughly 10,900'. The wellbore was cased with 4-1/2 inch production casing and cemented in place. A 2.5 million pound, 116,000 bbl fracture stimulation treatment was performed in the
horizontal portion of the wellbore over 10 stages. *The well was first delivered to sales on September 3, 2009. After seven days, the well was producing on a 26/64 inch choke at a rate of 5.2 MMcf/d and 10 bbls per hour of frac fluid recovery. Cumulatively, the well has produced and sold 39 MMcf of gas and recovered roughly 20,000 bbls (~17%) of the frac fluid.*

Regarding the Springer Ranch well, Limbacher commented, "We are in the early stages of assessing the results in our first Eagle Ford well, but performance has met or exceeded our expectations for this test well. As the well continues to clean up, we will monitor production rates and pressures to estimate the ultimate recovery of the well. We are encouraged that our 13,000 net acre leasehold position in the Springer Ranch Area has the potential to add significant value to our company."

Gates 05D #9H Well Drilling Update

Rosetta Resources has reached total depth on its second horizontal Eagle Ford well, the Gates 05D #9H. This well is located in northwest Webb County, Texas. Rosetta has a 100% working interest in the well and roughly 10,000 net acres under lease in the Gates Area.

The well was drilled to a total measured depth of 12,400' which includes a
3,700' horizontal wellbore drilled through the Eagle Ford Shale at a true
vertical depth of roughly 8,300'. The wellbore was cased with 5-1/2 inch
production casing and cemented in place. A multi-stage fracture stimulation
treatment is planned to commence in early October, 2009.



magnum takes out sharon talks up the eagleford

Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation Announces Acquisition of Sharon Resources, Inc.


HOUSTON, TX -- (Marketwire) -- 09/10/09 -- Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation (NYSE Amex: MHR) (the "Company") announced today the execution of a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of the capital stock of Sharon Resources, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Calgary based Sharon Energy Ltd. (TSX-V: SHY).

The total consideration of $2.35 Million (USD) under the agreement will be paid in 2,294,474 shares of restricted common stock of Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation. This represents approximately 5.6% of the Company's 40.8 Million fully-diluted common shares outstanding as of August 1, 2009. No debt or any other liabilities will be assumed by Magnum Hunter and no other consideration beyond issuance of the new Magnum Hunter restricted common shares was paid for the acquisition.

Closing is anticipated to occur on or about September 30, 2009 and is subject to certain customary conditions including, but not limited to, the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals.

About Sharon Resources, Inc.

Houston based Sharon Resources, Inc. ("Sharon Resources") is an independent oil and gas exploration company engaged in the exploitation of emerging trends and the development of proven reserves. *Sharon Resources has an established track record for identifying, acquiring, drilling and developing oil and gas reserves, particularly in areas which utilize advanced drilling and completion techniques.* Sharon Resources' primary focus has been on exploration and development projects along the Texas Gulf Coast (onshore) offering repeatable, lower risk development opportunities. *Specific project areas include mineral acreage positions in the Eagle Ford Shale, Austin Chalk,* and Northwest Speaks areas where a substantial inventory of lower risk projects with repeatable success profiles have been assembled.

*Notably, Sharon Resources has acquired approximately 6,400 acres in the Eagle Ford fractured shale resource play. This acreage position is directly on trend with recent developmental success by other operators in the area. Under the direction of Magnum Hunter's senior management, Sharon Resources will continue to pursue the acquisition of additional acreage in this new resource play.*

Based on the analysis completed by Magnum Hunter as of June 30, 2009, Sharon Resources had estimated total proved reserves of approximately 2.9 Bcfe's (30% proved developed producing and 85% natural gas) with daily net production of approximately 288 Mcfe's per day (95% natural gas). The PV-10% value as of June 30, 2009 was $4.2 Million at the SEC pricing ($69.89 per Bbl pricing for crude oil and $3.835 per MMBtu pricing for natural gas). Sharon Resources operates over 65% of its proved reserve base.

*H.C. "Kip" Ferguson III, President of Sharon Resources, Inc., stated, "Our team of three highly seasoned exploration and evaluation oriented professionals are very excited to be joining forces with the new management team at Magnum Hunter Resources. With the contribution of our existing inventory and ready to drill portfolio of lower risk and repeatable projects, we believe our Company is positioned with one of the better situated acreage holdings in the emerging Eagle Ford Shale resource play. We are truly excited about the business combination of our two organizations whereby we can contribute an immediate impact to Magnum Hunter's business model."*

Management Comments

Mr. Gary C. Evans, Chairman of Magnum Hunter Resources, commented, "The announcement today of our acquisition of 100% of Sharon Resources from its Canadian parent in an all stock transaction follows in line with the strategy we previously laid out in late May when I joined the Company as its new Chairman of the Board. Kip Ferguson and his team of successful exploration and evaluation professionals brings to Magnum Hunter three seasoned industry professionals with specific expertise that previously did not exist in our organization. Sharon's existing inventory of attractive drilling opportunities, expertise in advanced drilling and completion technologies (particularly in resource plays), and expansion of our operational and technical staff will be immediately accretive to our existing organization. We have been most impressed by the high quality of Sharon's existing projects even in this low commodity price environment. *In particular, their 6,400 acre position in the Eagle Ford Shale resource play is something we are very excited about and intend to pursue immediately."*

About Magnum Hunter Resources


----------



## Agentm

bubba

copy of the eskew west completion.. about 5 miles west of our adi well in live oak county,  this report is for production after a 60/40 hydroprop frac on 3524 feet of the lateral

the eskew west well is listed as an eagleford well  but i am given the impression by the total vertical depth of 12072 and the sugarkane at 12205 that the figures in the report are  interesting in that regard 

i assume its a ceramic proppant.. so conocophillips are experimenting with different types of fracs in their wells on an ongoing basis..

the lateral had 2 sidetracks i see in the revised permit from a few days ago

ip flow rates were about 3.5 mmcfpd off 24/64 choke..  so the bopd would have been anywhere from 875 to 1000 bopd

i hear it settled back to 500 bopd from "local talk"


this from petrohawk on 4th aug

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3395041


some info on hydroprop from petrohawk



The Company is constantly working to improve its drilling and completion operations and efficiencies. Petrohawk is currently evaluating 1) increasing the length of each frac stage and the number of perforation clusters/stage while keeping the number of perforations constant; 2) increasing the volume of proppant per foot of lateral; 3) utilizing various proportions of 40/70 Ottawa sand along with 40/70 Premium Resin Coated sand, 4) *using 40/80 Hydroprop on an increasing number of wells and* 5) increasing proppant concentration. While some time will be required to ascertain results, early data points to opportunities to improve both cost and performance, as well as to modifications that could potentially result in an even more effective completion procedure for Haynesville Shale wells.




also the manufacturer discussing this new proppant last year

CARBO Ceramics Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
February 05, 2009

http://seekingalpha.com/article/118889-carbo-ceramics-q4-2008-earnings-call-transcript


Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering Energy & Co.
*
Okay. And in the release, you mentioned HYDROPROP being sold into the Haynesville. I think thinking back to November, I think you guys talked about CARBOPROP and EconoProp as being the primary products used in that play. Is HYDROPROP utilization new in that play and what's driving that?

Gary Kolstad

Well, so first of all, think about the Haynesville. You are drilling horizontal wells, your fracs are transverse. So three critical items there. One is that your wellbore contact with your frac is very limited, which is one reason you need a heck of a lot of conductivity, okay? Two, the pressure is... it needs to be ceramics, right, the stress on the proppant. Three, the temperature. Sand-based products degrade like crazy, if you would have listened to my... the webinar presentation I did on the Haynesville recently, we have all the graphs and stuff on that.

Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering Energy & Co.

Sure.

Gary Kolstad

Finally, a lot of people are using slick water in the Haynesville. So why did we create HYDROPROP? One, they have the strength of ceramic, but two, the transportability of it. So you are going to get that proppant transported out to the long link. So HYDROPROP has really come out strong in the Haynesville*.


----------



## Agentm




----------



## gerkin02

Agentm,
           There is an interesting article that i found that may be worth posting.

Energy and capital.

Natural gas price rebound-the bullish case for natural gas.
By Keith Kohl,tuesday 18th August 2009.

Thanks.


----------



## estseon

"Natural Gas Price Forecast
Investors are Betting Millions on $10 Gas

By Ian Cooper
Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Natural gas may be plunging to seven-year lows, but one fund is betting heavy that the commodity will rebound by more than 200% over the next six months. And we’re looking to profit right along with them.....P.S. When natural gas begins to rebound, Keith Kohl’s unearthed natural gas trades stand to skyrocket even more. Already, the four companies he’s initiated coverage on have spiked 51%, 80%, 41%, and 66% in mere months. But this is just the beginning ”” there’s plenty more money to be made. Read more in our free report, here..."


Nice to believe and may be true but be aware that he is talking his own book.

Watch the weather forecast - if the US turns cold this winter, prices will respond...


----------



## jestex12

Natural gas prices jump 12 percent
Natural gas prices spike 12 percent even with storage facilities bulging 
On Monday September 14, 2009, 11:21 am EDT 
       Buzz up! 6 Print
 NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices dipped below $69 a barrel Monday though a strong rally for natural gas extended into its third straight day.

Prices jumped more than 12 percent in value for each per 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas on the New York Mercantile Exchange to start the week.

Rapidly spiking prices led to some talk on Nymex that a very large player in the market believes that, at least in the short term, prices have fallen too far.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said prices for natural gas may even triple over the winter, though most energy experts believe there is a far greater chance that prices will plunge again.

There are two big factors that support the latter view, which would mean extremely cheap heating bills for a lot of people over the next few months.

The first is that natural gas in storage is 17 percent greater than it was last year and it is even nearing the maximum storage capacity in some places. And the U.S Energy Information Administration said in its short-term energy outlook that it expects another 12 percent buildup through October.

At the same time most meteorologists predict a very mild winter for large parts of the country. With demand already way down from industrial utility customers, the U.S. has an enormous amount of unused natural gas.

Oil and natural gas have historically tracked one another as far as prices go, but this year has been a different story. On Monday crude prices fell again as natural gas rose.

Benchmark crude for October delivery fell 84 cents to $68.45 a barrel. On Friday, the contract tumbled $2.65 to settle at $69.29.

A lot of pressure has been placed on the dollar-based crude because the dollar has rebounded in recent days. Oil prices have fallen about $4 during the last two trading days. Still, prices have doubled from earlier this year during what may have been the depth of the recession.

A lot of experts believe that optimism is premature because crude in storage, like natural gas, remains at very high levels.

Signs of an improved economic outlook have fueled optimism for growing demand for crude around the world, but supplies remain at high levels.

"At some point hope has to become a reality or prices will have to adjust accordingly," said PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn.

At the pump, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell a tenth of a cent to $2.572, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. That's 7.3 cents more than a month ago, but $1.22 less than at this time last year.

Gasoline for October delivery on the Nymex fell 1.41 cents to $1.7457 a gallon.

Prices have most certainly peaked for most motorists this year, barring some disruption in the Gulf of Mexico.

"The 'driving season' is over ... and supplies are greater today than in May," analyst and trader Stephen Schork wrote in his morning report.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil for October delivery rose less than a penny to $1.7329 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 38 cents to $3.342 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude fell 13 cents to $67.56 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Associated Press Writers Pablo Gorondi in Budapest, Hungary, Alex Kennedy in Singapore and Stephen Bernard in New York contributed to this report.


----------



## Agentm

gerkin estseon jesstex

i have watched the gas prices like all have,and fortunately they are not a major factor in the adi acreages, the primary reason the eagleford and chalks are a being developed is for the condensate, and at current prices and with the aussie dollar getting into good territory, the oil that sits under the acreages adi have an interest in, is in my view the primary drive for the moment.

this from lucas and their mysterious partner

September 14, 2009 (FinancialWire) -- Lucas Energy, Inc. (NYSE AMEX: LEI ) an independent oil and gas company based in Houston
, Texas, announced the commencement of drilling the Ervin et al No.1 well, Gonzales County, Texas, a deepening of a horizontal Austin Chalk well plugged back last year.

The well was spudded on August 24, 2009 and is expected to be drilled down to total depth within two weeks. The lateral in the Austin Chalk was plugged back last year in anticipation of this deepening. *The well will be cleaned out to the top of the plug back cement plug and drilled straight down to the lower intervals (Austin Chalk, Eagleford Shale, and Buda). This well is a part of a joint venture program involving Lucas Energy, Inc., as operator, and two other non-operator working interest owners, one of which purchased an eighty percent BPO (before payout) working interest in the subject well.*

Lucas operates twenty-two wells in Gonzales County, Texas. Lucas, recently, re-entered two other wells in this area, the Norris No.1 well and the Mills Oil Unit No.1 well. The Norris No.1 well has been completed and tested 99 BOPD flowing. The Mills Oil Unit No.1 well is awaiting installation of a pumping unit to test the well.

William A. Sawyer, president and CEO of Lucas Energy, said "Lucas Energy, Inc. has moved ahead in this quarter toward the completion of Phase I of our operational business plan. With oil prices at $67 per bbl now and headed into the $70 per bbls range for the next quarter, we are looking forward to a good fiscal 2nd quarter financially."


----------



## Bubba Oil

EOG has permitted several interesting Eagle Ford locations.  The EOG 1 Marshall Unit (42-177-32077) is located approximately 32 miles northeast of the EOG Milton wells in Karnes County.  The EOG 1 Peeler (42-013-34272) and EOG 2H Peeler (42-013-34273) wells are located approximately 44 miles southwest of the Milton wells.  These are big time step out wells and could really stretch the play.  If the Atascosa County wells are successful that would be good news for ADI.


----------



## adobee

I am been watching ADI and this thread for some time now.. There seems to be some avid believers / interest in the stock which is great.. However there also seems to be some substanial difference in the amount if information put into the thread and the amount of information released by this company..

For the holders are you expecting some market sensitive news out in the near future.. Is this company going to do anything in the near future that will actually affect the share price .. ?  If not why are you holding on and giving more information than the company cares too..


----------



## prawn_86

adobee said:


> I am been watching ADI and this thread for some time now.. There seems to be some avid believers / interest in the stock which is great.. However there also seems to be some substanial difference in the amount if information put into the thread and the amount of information released by this company..
> 
> For the holders are you expecting some market sensitive news out in the near future.. Is this company going to do anything in the near future that will actually affect the share price .. ?  If not why are you holding on and giving more information than the company cares too..




Have to agree with this.

It seems that a lot of the info in this thread is not actually directly related to ADI (ie what they are doing), rather what other companies in the area are doing.

Huge opportunity cost holding this one, especially over the last 6 months.


----------



## adobee

prawn_86 said:


> Have to agree with this.
> 
> It seems that a lot of the info in this thread is not actually directly related to ADI (ie what they are doing), rather what other companies in the area are doing.
> 
> Huge opportunity cost holding this one, especially over the last 6 months.




This is how I feel.. I have been holding for about 8 months.. and see the opportunity that if there was some market sensitive news this could easily break out which a huge return.. but the market news has been poor and I have spent about 25 hours reading this thread which hasnt really made me any more confident that I should just dump it and jump back in 18 months time..

I am not putting the stock or company down but from the perception of making money on shares am not sure about holding this unless it is really long term and if it is then why hold now and not come back to it .. ?


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> I am been watching ADI and this thread for some time now.. There seems to be some avid believers / interest in the stock which is great.. However there also seems to be some substanial difference in the amount if information put into the thread and the amount of information released by this company..
> 
> For the holders are you expecting some market sensitive news out in the near future.. Is this company going to do anything in the near future that will actually affect the share price .. ?  If not why are you holding on and giving more information than the company cares too..





the eagleford play was discovered by TCEi and conocophillips in the kunde 1 well.  our well which was the second well to test the eagleford was sugarloaf 1.. since that time the play has gone from a very secret discovery to a long drawn out development program.. and a substantial amount of research and capital has been invested by all  operators including adi,  adi has been restricted by TCEI and conocophillips (the partner with tcei) on what little regional information was allowed to be published, the majority of info on the eagleford has really only been released in the previous 12 months, prior to that all operators were the same, buying leases and testing under heavy silence..  any data i released on the play was laughed at and mocked and  disbelieved. until regional operators finally started talking it up, and more recently the dicussions on the play has been more appreciative..

adi can only release regional info on the likes of petrohawk but is still severly restricted on anything close by that either adi or conocophillips do, a few of us talk to locals and get good data, which upsets the operator big time every time its put on the web.  an exapmle of how paranoid they are, we know what i have posted post here and on hc is seen at ground zero, printed and published on the COP drill sites to determine if any contractors are talking.

the next news to come will be whether the farmout deal has been successful, they wont be negotiating much more than a few more weeks. so that is when news on the future of the current untested laterals will be revealed and the forward plan to develop the entire field

it will be a substantial deal, so i imagine the ole adi will wake up from hibernation then.

as for the sp?  i gather some are holding and anticipating some better days ahead   my view is that adi would be making sure the yemen cash is secured, perhaps selling the other yemen asset and waiting on whether the farmout deal is a success or that capital will be spent on the sugarkane or on the positive outcome,   it will be free carried on 6 or 8 wells and  have plenty to spend on new ventures immediately.. 

once adi comes out of hibernation there may be some better days for holders and exciting projects in the making.. who knows??  after years of waiting a few weeks more is no big deal..

you can speculate on whether to hold or sell any share really, its always entirely up to the invetsor on the timings..


----------



## prawn_86

Agentm said:


> once adi comes out of hibernation there may be some better days for holders and exciting projects in the making.. who knows?? after years of waiting a few weeks more is no big deal..




What if it never eventuates? Or takes years more? And you cant say that wont happen, because things have been 'just around the corner' for years now already...

Do current holders have an exit plan? Or is it just a buy with the possible rewards outweighing the possible entire loss?


----------



## Agentm

prawn

adi is at cash value as it stands right now. 

adi and indeed the entire jvp went into hibernation. 

adi plan was to survive, the announced their intentions as such..

1. sell assets and get capital to stop the company from risking liquidation.

2. join in with the previously announced AUT/TCEI plan to farmout some of the sugarkane (eagleford/chalks) play. 

3. no activity for any operations in the sugarkane at all. then if a deal is struck - continue on the sugarkane..   and if no deal is struck be financial to continue on the sugarkane...

jefferies has a few weeks left to do a deal on the farmout.   so until they complete their work there is nothing planned for the jvp.. 

if the deal is struck adi are free carried there for a good period to come, and have plenty of capital to invest in other new ventures.

if no deal is struck, then adi have the capital to develop the wells thus far completed. and go ahead with more and develop further and put in more development wells.. 

its up to the individual to assess whether the other jvp members keep their acreages, or will be liquid enough to continue, should the deal not be completed i guess.   

at near cash value the risk reward is far less than before..


----------



## Agentm

gatta love rumours

Emerging Eagle Ford Shale In South Texas

This play is heating up more and more. It is larger than the active operators that are drilling the Eagle Ford are saying. It is not isolated only beneath the Edwards Reef trend in the downdip section. EOG and others are leasing in the middip and the updip section of the play. LaSalle, Mcmullen, and Atascosa are the three most active counties. *There have been rumors that 2 wells have tested in the middip section of the play in excess of 1,600 BOPD with associated gas. This is the oil play for Texas.*

http://www.oilvoice.com/post/Main_D...gle_Ford_Shale_In_South_Texas/b1ad44b230.aspx


----------



## adobee

well theres no denying that some interest is showing today.. small volumes still but sellers really drying up... If something crazy comes out soon we could see this run off the hook...

Please oh please announce something...  anything ...


----------



## rock86

adobee said:


> well theres no denying that some interest is showing today.. small volumes still but sellers really drying up... If something crazy comes out soon we could see this run off the hook...
> 
> Please oh please announce something...  anything ...




Yeh i know, but there has been small volumes for the past few days. Sp has moved up over the past week, I know only a little, but maybe some speculation of an announcement AgentM ??


----------



## Lucky_Country

I think if you havent got your fair share of ADI now then you are going to have to pay up.

Its been along time coming but news maybe about to break.

Yemen and Farmin could really calm investors nerves and see a substantial rise.

LNG / GAS are currently the market darling so ADI will want to capitalise on the momentum.


----------



## blues

I have talked to all the Aussie JVP's in the last few weeks and the impression I got was that the potential farmin wasnt going to happen in the next few weeks. I would love to be wrong on that as we are all over the waiting. 

Although I was told the Yemen deal would settle in the next few weeks and that was a couple of weeks ago.

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> I have talked to all the Aussie JVP's in the last few weeks and the impression I got was that the potential farmin wasnt going to happen in the next few weeks. I would love to be wrong on that as we are all over the waiting.
> 
> Although I was told the Yemen deal would settle in the next few weeks and that was a couple of weeks ago.
> 
> Cheers




blues there would be only 2 ways to take that

1. the negative view that there is absolutely no farm in partner talking to jefferies and no farm in would happen in the next few weeks and the jefferies contract would be closed..

2.  or a very much promising view that there is a potential farm in partner negotiting with jefferies and the deal would not likely be made in the coming few weeks. then you need to speculate as to whether the jvp will allow any further negotiations past the end date, or forget the deal and go ahead in their own right..

blues your doing a damn sight better than i am in talking to the jvp partners, because i get told the jvp know zip.. that tcei have said very little about the deal, and that they cant even speculate on whether a deal is going to be secured or not. other than the land and region has attracted a lot of attention and a deal should be secured on the type of acreages adi have.. the best i get on the current status is they would likely have perhaps 1 perhaps more suitors in at various stages with jefferies and TCEI has not elaborated anything..

well done for getting a better picture than i ever could.. imho if you have been told no deal can be done in the coming weeks (and god knows how that is known) then it may be a fair bet there is one still out there, i would be very surprised if there was no interest past looking at the data room level..


----------



## adobee

there is only one way i can take it at the moment ... no one is selling people are buying... its been dead for the past 9 months.. something is on the cards...


----------



## blues

Hi Agentm,

All this is my impression from talking to the JVP's and perhaps I might be reading to much into it but I thought I would share my observations. It is my understanding that there are interested parties (as you would expect) but the the feeling I got from the jvp's that a deal wasnt immminent although I believe there have been detailed discussions on a deal. I also got the impression that they wont wait forever and that they want action quickly or other options would be considered. 

Also was told that a couple of different options were being considered such as someone financially backing a development/exploration program or someone becoming the Operator of our leases.

These are my impressions and I havent been told a deal isnt imminent but I just didnt get the feel it was weeks away. I would love to be wrong and wake up to an announcement tomorrow morning.

Cheers


----------



## estseon

Because of the other TCEI/AUT acreages, it's bound to be a complex balancing act to secure fairness for all the partners. That is possibly one of the reasons why Jeffries has been employed. That is possibly why the starting point from our side was to cede up to 50% WI across the board on all the acreages. But there is some development of the SL acreage in contrast to the other TCEI/AUT acreages and the initial focus for the new partner will be completion of the 3 wells drilled on SL + free carry for [3] new wells [?]. The existing wells are linked up to the gas line. AUT/TCEI have a lease commitment to drill [2] wells in their acreage. Timing might be of the essence to comply with those lease requirements.

It is a complex deal. Protracted negotiations will not necessarily mean that the SL is difficult to sell. It could simply be the allocation of the new partner's commitment between the different JVP's interests.

I'm just guessing (like everyone else) but I see potential problems that have little to do with the attraction of SL. Also, they are problems that can be solved by compromise.


----------



## Agentm

nice to see the farmout successful

yemen cash needs to be confirmed, and as adi have yet to report the farmout success perhaps they have some good news to add

we shall see


----------



## OK2

Agentm said:


> nice to see the farmout successful
> 
> yemen cash needs to be confirmed, and as adi have yet to report the farmout success perhaps they have some good news to add
> 
> we shall see





Well done on the call, where to from hear in your opinion or based on all of your research? Perhaps a speeding ticket is coming up for ADI at open!


----------



## Miner

OK2 said:


> Well done on the call, where to from hear in your opinion or based on all of your research? Perhaps a speeding ticket is coming up for ADI at open!




Interesting to see today's market for ADI - gone to 8.1 cents - no report yet. Hope something is hatching as you suspected or speculated. But ADI yet  to earn the status of a speeding ticket 

Disclaimer - I hold


----------



## Agentm

Australian Stock Exchange Limited

ADELPHI FARMS OUT INTEREST IN SUGARLOAF AMI

Adelphi Energy Limited is pleased to advise that it has farmed out half of its 20% interest in the Sugarloaf AMI to Hilcorp Energy Company (Hilcorp) via Texas Crude Energy Inc. (TCEI) in return for a significant farmin work program.

Hilcorp is a major privately owned Houston based oil exploration and production company with considerable operating experience onshore USA.
The farmin work program is expected to commence promptly, and will involve initially the completion or recompletion of up to 3 existing Sugarloaf AMI wells; Kennedy – 1H, Kowalik – 1H and the Weston -1H. Thereafter up to 3 new horizontal exploration wells will be drilled.

Interest may be earned progressively across parts the Sugarloaf AMI only as each element of the farmin work program is undertaken and completed. This work program has a series of deadlines over the next 20 months, and no interest will be earned unless the agreed work programs are completed.
This farmout is an excellent outcome for Adelphi because it will continue development of the Sugarkane Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford shale field within the Sugarloaf AMI and will allow the leasehold acreage position to be managed proactively.

From a corporate perspective, this farmout will result in Adelphi retaining meaningful equity in a multi TCFe resource project and be free carried through a significant work program.

Preservation of capital for Adelphi remains an appropriate strategy at this early stage in the development of the resource in the Sugarloaf area.
This farmout of Sugarloaf in conjunction with the sale of Adelphi's Block 7 interest in Yemen will place Adelphi in a much stronger financial position without the need to obtain further equity funding for its current projects.
Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.


----------



## Miner

Well Done AGENTM : the hawk eye for ADI 
While I was trying to down load the ASX report you have done it.
Any way here goes the ASX report from ADI.
The volume was very high - expected
But the price went up much higher  before the report was published than the price level now after the report got published.
General market is down since it went up at the start .


----------



## Agentm

the asx report was out pre open.

i saw the eka and aut reports were nearly 45 minutes earlier

the deal is very heartening, the free carry on the completion of kennedy and weston and the remedial frac needed on kowalik will mean very quick returns to adi, ontop on the yemen cash

the drilling of 3 further wells completely free carried is also brilliant news

my view is that the jvp may target both zones, imho the eskew west well of conocophillips was designed to flow off both chalks and eagleford, and imho the future wells will follow that strategy. the eagleford is 7 tcf on it own and 25% recoverable has been projected by other operators

add to that the chalks as well, and i think adi may look very undervalued atm..


----------



## gerkin02

There appears to be some significant repositioning occuring today.

Once this has run its course we can move forward with greater certainty now.

All the best.


----------



## Miner

Reading the report, it appears ADI almost said no equity will be raised as an effect of the Farm In.

So it should be good news for current holders to increase value of their shareholding.

The heavy volume also indicates there are far more interest on ADI with some expectation 

I am sitting tight hopefully to be rewarded for my patience


----------



## adobee

EKA & AUT have alot better run from this news than ADI..  EKA up something like 114% now...  AUT 50% ...


----------



## rock86

adobee said:


> EKA & AUT have alot better run from this news than ADI..  EKA up something like 114% now...  AUT 50% ...




I'm a little dissapointed atm, I thought with this good news we might see a little bit more of a rise, I'll still hold tight. More good movement to come


----------



## Hatchy

I'm not that surprised that there isn't a great deal of interest in ADI today even with the news. 

The news tells us two things:


ADI have sold off 50% of their stake in Texas for a deal that will eventually see great returns if the flows are similar to the neighbours.
ADI are still trying to finalise the sale of the yemen asset. This might be worry enough to keep the punters away / showing caution. (which is counter intuitive considering there isn't a need for cash with this new farm in)
My Opinion:
Don't be disheartened by the lack of movement today - when reports start coming through about the refinishing of the wells currently flowing and the drilling of the three prospectives there will be movement in the price. 

As far as to why EKA and AUT are moving faster - there's no logic there. 

Patience is what's needed - and those ADI faithfull that are still left know what that stuff is. 

DYOR


----------



## Agentm

rock86 said:


> I'm a little dissapointed atm, I thought with this good news we might see a little bit more of a rise, I'll still hold tight. More good movement to come




to equate .007 cents of a rise into 3 laterals being fracced and 3 new wells being drilled is a big disappointment, but thats all the sellers think its worth so thats how the markets are played

imho the volume is more related to a move out by a group of investors.. waiting for the news and knowing the outcome would stimulate buying interest.

so its being sold into bigtime right now, so there is no shortage at all

is 7tcf or 200 bcf ($2 in ground) worth investing in? 

i keep accumulating


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> to equate .007 cents of a rise into 3 laterals being fracced and 3 new wells being drilled is a big disappointment, but thats all the sellers think its worth so thats how the markets are played
> 
> imho the volume is more related to a move out by a group of investors.. waiting for the news and knowing the outcome would stimulate buying interest.
> 
> so its being sold into bigtime right now, so there is no shortage at all
> 
> is 7tcf or 200 bcf ($2 in ground) worth investing in?
> 
> i keep accumulating




I am a little surprised there was not more of a bump.  Once the existing wells are fraced and new wells are drilled and fraced I think the stock will soar.  At that time a good portion of the acreage can be considered Proved Undeveloped (PUD).  The future looks bright in my opinion.


----------



## rock86

So, now that the farm out and (when the Yemen cash is tied up), where to now for ADI? Will they just be focusing on Eagleford?


----------



## Agentm

These 3 new lyssy   eog permits a few miles north west of kennedy are pretty interesting!!

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...icQuery=Y&name=LYSSY+UNIT&univDocNo=485779127

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...icQuery=Y&name=LYSSY+UNIT&univDocNo=485779128

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...icQuery=Y&name=LYSSY+UNIT&univDocNo=485779130


eog will drill them pretty quick


it points to the fact that these eagleford wells that eog are drilling must be impressing them as they continue to drill at a very high rate, i think they have possibly 2 rigs on the go atm

they are very close to the adi/tcei acreages


the dan hughes well a few miles due north of kennedy, i hear from a few sources that the well is very impressive also. very high rates of oil are been rumored from them.. similar to the rumor article i posted a few days back..


----------



## Agentm

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report-21.09.09.pdf

the latest hartleys report on adi

they factor in only .60 cents on the austin chalks, the eagleford (7 tcf in ground) is not put into the equation atm

interesting


----------



## rock86

does anyone want to elaborate why after the good announcement yesterday that there has been no favourable movement for ADI.

Still holding


----------



## Agentm

rock86

just an observation here

adi's turnover has been amazing, and the sp remains flat, indicating an exit from the share.

various people have suggested the .06 cap raising crowd is moving on out. if you recall adi did a cap raising then the jvp suddenly went into hibernation instead of progressing on the wells and went into farmout mode.

my view is that its an opportunity for them to exit so they are, the announcement has generated some 10% of the yearly turnover in the stock occurring in the past week.. 

its being touted as a good buy by hartleys and i think there is good healthy turnover atm indicating the interest in this small cap is there.

i agree that adi flatlined whilst the other jvps went up 19% (eme) 97% (eka) 70% (aut)

pretty much nil anyone can do atm other than accumulate or wait.

all imho and dyor


----------



## gdaf

a 20%+ profit from a few weeks ago most likely.

a couple of thousand bopd should sort things out

   zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


----------



## adobee

rock86 said:


> does anyone want to elaborate why after the good announcement yesterday that there has been no favourable movement for ADI.
> 
> Still holding




could have something to do with the fact i am a share holder... i will drop it shortly and you will see new highs immediately..

Hartley 6 month target of 10c doesnt sound that promising to me..
might be time to drop it like its hot !!


----------



## rock86

Agentm said:


> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report-21.09.09.pdf
> 
> the latest hartleys report on adi
> 
> they factor in only .60 cents on the austin chalks, the eagleford (7 tcf in ground) is not put into the equation atm
> 
> interesting




Agentm, if Hartley's have a 60c price target with only the austin chalks, and if all goes to plan with this and eagleford, care to have a guess of how much more cps eagleford could add to ADI. If all goes to plan do you think we're looking at $1 plus??

I'm gunna stick it out


----------



## Agentm

there 7 tcf in ground resource is for the sugarkane. about  1/3 is for the chalks and 2/3 is the eagleford

hartleys is ignoring that the sugarkane field actually exists and extends from the liveoak wells to the kennedy and if you look at other wells you may see it mentioned

sugarkane is distinctly different to the eagleford.. its two big zones the eagleford and austin chalk zones and a few smaller ones.. "The proposed interval is bounded above by the Pecan Gap Shale and below by the tight Buda Limestone, both of which provide reservoir pressure seals."

hartleys give no credibility to the sugarkane what so ever, they only talk the chalks, nd give it .60 to the share, but we know the eagleford is producing. eskew west was the first deeper well that conoco put in, its in the eagleford and is producing very nicely. kennedy is producing from a featherduster frac and will be completed for production shortly.


let me explain with what conoco say it is, keep in mind they needed our kennedy wells results to present this one some 180 days ago

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/meetings/ogpfd/ogpofldrules/02-61131-frl.pdf

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131

THE APPLICATION OF BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO., LP TO ADOPT FIELD RULES AND CONSIDER PERMANENT GAS WELL CLASSIFICATION FOR ALL
WELLS IN THE SUGARKANE (CRETACEOUS) FIELD, LIVE OAK AND KARNES
COUNTIES, TEXAS

HEARD BY: Richard D. Atkins, P.E. - Technical Examiner
HEARING DATE: March 25, 2009
APPEARANCES: REPRESENTING:
Jamie Nielson Burlington Resources O & G Co., LP
Greg Cloud
Yolanda Perez
EXAMINER’S REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION
STATEMENT OF THE CASE

Burlington Resources O & G Co., LP (“Burlington”) requests that Field Rules be
adopted for the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field. The proposed rules are summarized as follows:
1. Designation of the field as the correlative interval from 11,360 feet to 11,662 feet as shown on the log of the Burlington Resources O & G Co., LP - Kunde Lease, Well No. 1 (API No. 42-297-34621);

Burlington also requests that all wells in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field be
permanently classified as gas wells, effective the date of first production for each well.

The application was unprotested and the examiner recommends approval of the Field Rules and permanent gas well classification for all wells in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field.

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 2

DISCUSSION OF EVIDENCE
The Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field was discovered in September 2006. The field is classified as a non-associated gas field and operates under Statewide Rules. Two wells are carried on the proration schedule with one vertical well operated by Burlington and one horizontal well operated by Texas Crude Energy, Inc. (“Texas Crude”). However, Burlington has drilled and completed one additional vertical well and three horizontal wells that are not yet listed on the schedule. Production is from a depth of approximately 11,400
feet and the initial reservoir pressure and temperature was 8,653 psia and 287 degree F.

Cumulative production from the field through February 2009 is 324 MMCFG and 63.4 MBC. 

*Burlington requests that the correlative interval from 11,360 feet to 11,662 feet as shown on the log of the Burlington Resources O & G Co., LP - Kunde Lease, Well No. 1 (API No. 42-297-34621), be considered a single field known as the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field. The proposed interval is bounded above by the Pecan Gap Shale and below by the tight Buda Limestone, both of which provide reservoir pressure seals.* The Cretaceous formation was deposited in a deep shelf environment and is composed of limestone with inter-bedded calcareous shales. The formation also contains natural fractures that enhance hydrocarbon production. 

The discovery well for the field was the Burlington - Kunde Lease, Well No. 1. 

Thewell was a vertical well and was completed from 11,440 feet to 11,520 feet. This well was permanently classified as a gas well based on PVT analysis performed on September 12, 2006 and submitted for the well during a hearing held on February 9, 2007 in Oil & Gas Docket No. 02-0250021. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a Constant Composition Expansion (“CCE”) at pressures ranging from 8,000 psia down to 500 psia.
The original reservoir pressure was 8,653 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 5,072 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.5 mol% methane and 10.4 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 32.4% at 3,000 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.5 degree API and a straw color.

The second well completed in the field was the Burlington - Baker Family Trust Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,071 feet to 12,248 feet TVD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on April 14, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 12,022 psia down to 1,616 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,678 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single
phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,216 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 67.1 mol% methane and 7.2 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 13.3% at 2,014 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.0 degree API and a straw color.

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 3

The third well completed in the field was the Burlington - Kunde Lease, Well No. 3. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 11,805 feet to 14,405 feet MD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on June 27, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 10,000 psia down to 500 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,029 psia and the results of
the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,669 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.7 mol% methane and 10.1 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 27.5% at 3,000 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 52.9 degree API and a straw color.

*The fourth well completed in the field was the Texas Crude - Kennedy Lease, Well No. 1H. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,232 feet to 12,253 feet TVD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on November 20, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 9,000 psia down to 500 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 7,975 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until
the reservoir pressure reaches 4,435 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure.
Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.5 mol% methane and 10.2 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 29.5% at 3,500 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.8 degree API and a straw color.*


The fifth well completed in the field was the Burlington - Baker Family Trust Lease, Well No. 2. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,165 feet to 12,316 feet TVD. No PVT analysis was performed on this well.
The sixth well completed in the field was the Burlington - Marlene Olson Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a vertical well and was completed from 12,026 feet to 12,213 feet. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on December 18, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 12,015 psia down to 2,430 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,439 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,422 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure.
Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 67.7 mol% methane and 7.0 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 16.5% at 2,430 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 54.0 degree API and a straw color.

Statewide Rule 79 defines a gas well as “....A well which produces hydrocarbon liquids, a part of which is formed by a condensation from a gas phase and a part of which is crude petroleum oil, shall be classified as a gas well unless there is produced one barrel or more of crude petroleum oil per 100,000 cubic feet of natural gas; and that the term “crude petroleum oil” shall not be construed to mean any liquid hydrocarbon mixture or portion thereof which is not in the liquid phase in the reservoir, removed from the reservoir


----------



## Agentm

the rest of the report.........

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 4

in such liquid phase, and obtained at the surface as such.” Burlington believes that because the liquid hydrocarbons in this reservoir are essentially non-existent, any liquid produced at the surface does not meet the definition of “crude petroleum oil”. Instead, the produced liquid is a product of condensation and should not be used as a basis for classification of the wells as oil wells. 

Burlington also believes that all wells in the field should be permanently classified as gas wells, based on the available data for current wells in the field. All five of the wells that had PVT analysis performed in the field have passed most of the requirements for administrative classification as gas wells. Any additional wells completed in the field are expected to exhibit similar fluid characteristics and additional PVT analysis is unnecessary
for classification of wells as gas wells.

FINDINGS OF FACT

1. Notice of this hearing was given to all persons entitled to notice and no
protests were received.
2. Burlington applied for and received a new field designation for the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field in September 2006. The new field is classified as a nonassociated gas field and operates under Statewide Rules. A total of six wells have been completed in the field.
3. Burlington requests that the correlative interval from 11,360 feet to 11,662
feet as shown on the log of the Burlington Resources O & G Co., LP - Kunde
Lease, Well No. 1 (API No. 42-297-34621), be considered a single field
known as the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field. The proposed interval is bounded above by the Pecan Gap Shale and below by the tight Buda Limestone, both of which provide reservoir pressure seals.
4. All wells in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field should be permanently
classified as gas wells. 
a. The original reservoir pressure and temperature in the discovery well
was 8,653 psia and 287 degree F.
b. The PVT analysis for the Kunde Lease, Well No. 1, indicates that the
original reservoir pressure was 8,653 psia and the results of the CCE
indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the
reservoir pressure reaches 5,072 psia, the retrograde dew point
pressure.

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 5

c. The PVT analysis for the Baker Family Trust Lease, Well No. 1,
indicates that the original reservoir pressure was 9,678 psia and the
results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase
gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,216 psia, the retrograde
dew point pressure.
d. The PVT analysis for the Kunde Lease, Well No. 3, indicates that the
original reservoir pressure was 9,029 psia and the results of the CCE
indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the
reservoir pressure reaches 4,669 psia, the retrograde dew point
pressure.
e. The PVT analysis for the Kennedy Lease, Well No. 1H, indicates that
the original reservoir pressure was 7,975 psia and the results of the
CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the
reservoir pressure reaches 4,435 psia, the retrograde dew point
pressure.
f. The PVT analysis for the Marlene Olson Lease, Well No. 1, indicates
that the original reservoir pressure was 9,439 psia and the results of
the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until
the reservoir pressure reaches 4,422 psia, the retrograde dew point
pressure.
5. Liquid hydrocarbons produced at the surface from the subject wells are the
product of condensation and should not be classified as crude petroleum oil.
6. Because the liquids produced from the wells are not crude petroleum oil, the subject wells should be classified as a gas wells.

CONCLUSIONS OF LAW
1. Proper notice of this hearing was issued.
2. All things have been accomplished or have occurred to give the Commission
jurisdiction in this matter.
3. Adopting Field Rules for the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field is necessary to
prevent waste, protect correlative rights and promote development of the
field.
4. All wells ever completed in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field are gas wells,
effective the date of first production, based on the definition of a gas well
pursuant to Statewide Rule 79 (a) (11) (C).

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 6
RECOMMENDATION

Based on the above findings of fact and conclusions of law, the examiner
recommends that the Commission adopt Field Rules for the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field, as proposed by Burlington, and approve permanent gas well classification for all wells ever completed in the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field. 

Respectfully submitted,
Richard D. Atkins, P.E.
Technical Examiner


----------



## Agentm

i guess sometimes maps are easier to get a picture of things..

there is a lot of talk about the eagleford, its one section, below the austin chalks, 

then theres the massive discovery that adi sit on, its a double whammy, both the chalks and eagleford, called the "sugarkane"

these maps explains how far both plays reach thus far

first the eagleford play, a massive play:







now the thing that everyone was keeping so secret on top of the secrecy of the eagelford that all operators are blabbing about now they are leased up to the eyeballs

this is the sugarkane.. a very impressive play, it contains both the chalks and the eagleford









is this helping anyone understand whats going on here with adi?

hartleys is in the dark ages imho


----------



## rock86

so ADI's acreage sit's with in both plays, yet Hartley's do not include the more impressive play


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> is this helping anyone understand whats going on here with adi?
> 
> hartleys is in the dark ages imho




Hartley's in the Dark Ages? Surely Not!!!!!! ::::::::::

It's a waiting game, and it's one that's been taking a few non-waiters out of play in the last week - we'll see if this large turnover can continue going forward. 

Once again I re-iterate what I said previously - sit tight guys, it's going to take some new results to stimulate an upward trend.

But yes Rock86 - we'll be looking at significant upside if this play comes off


----------



## adobee

Dumped it yesterday... left the profits in to run.. (which are f.all)..
Will revisit if some news comes out and has positive affect...  from buying before last announcement doesnt seem like it will be to hard to pick up on before hand..


----------



## Agentm

hatchy

i have checked all my data and i cannot conclude nor agree with hartleys report.  if my data told me that the adi acreages were not smack in middle of the sugarkane field, and if my data showed me the kowalik chalks well and the kennedy eagleford well were not both producing, and if the hooks well in dewitt county and the live oak wells of conocophillips were all not  producing, then i would have to agree that the sugarkane field was not a factor at all. but imho its clearly not the case and harlteys is entirely in the dark ages,


i will post all the production data for the sugarkane field which is in direct conflict with what hartley is concluding.

my data shows production both ends of the field in in the middle in adi's 2 wells


----------



## Hatchy

Thanks AgentM,
I have full faith in this field and in the overall play. 

I shake my head sometimes when reports come out that go one way or the other - too high or too low, generally indicates the researchers aren't too sure of what they know. 

It's just a shame that hartleys have a knack of it. Just my view. 

Even if they don't classify it as sugarkane, how can they not see the two plays Eagle and Chalk as being worth more than a few cents?

Anyway - The end to a good week of trade in ADI - may there be many more to come and much good news before the years end.


----------



## jancha

Rarely a week goes by without updates or comments on this company so why has it been quiet the last week or so? Has agentm gone on holiday or are we just waiting on some breakout to occur?


----------



## rock86

jancha said:


> Rarely a week goes by without updates or comments on this company so why has it been quiet the last week or so? Has agentm gone on holiday or are we just waiting on some breakout to occur?




just waiting for some updates and things to start happening I think, hopefully it'll be soon, still a little dissapointing with the reaction of the market to the farmout, this stock needs some attention


----------



## Agentm

i am hoping for the jvp to start contacting the new partner, hilcorp, and get a feel for their timings. imho its pretty early days atm, but some clarification is slowly coming out.

my view is that the jvp want very immediate action, and it would be a major disappointment if hilcorp were not equally as interested in the sugarkane play 

this from aut in the past hour or so. i think if your investing in adi its worth a read myself


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## rock86

do you think this news had anything to do with the price jump at the end of the day??? Argh this one hundred charcters


----------



## estseon

There's nothing particularly new about these kind of figures (and they seem more conservative than the ones imported by ADI) but more people are talking them. I don't know what it will take for the market to start believing in them but it might me quite exciting once faith is restored.


----------



## Miner

estseon said:


> There's nothing particularly new about these kind of figures (and they seem more conservative than the ones imported by ADI) but more people are talking them. I don't know what it will take for the market to start believing in them but it might me quite exciting once faith is restored.




You may be right.
what about switching from ADI to AMCOR shares ? AMCOR bought the Alcan stake from Rio and also makes good tissues to wipe out tears 
I am holding ADI and not complaining as a passive contributor to this thread. My betting horse is Agentm - He or She knows about ADI many times more than I know about oil and gas.


----------



## Agentm

rock86 said:


> do you think this news had anything to do with the price jump at the end of the day??? Argh this one hundred charcters




in a word

absofriggenlutely




Miner said:


> You may be right.
> what about switching from ADI to AMCOR shares ? AMCOR bought the Alcan stake from Rio and also makes good tissues to wipe out tears
> I am holding ADI and not complaining as a passive contributor to this thread. My betting horse is Agentm - He or She knows about ADI many times more than I know about oil and gas.




miner

its always good to look at regional research, and it appears that i have gone from being laughed at in the early days to being somewhat correct about everything on the eagleford and the sugarkane. AUT have made it clear they believe its a legitimate play as have all jvp partners.. 

in terms of investing on the research, i always think that in a high risk high reward share such as adi is, then exposure to risk needs careful consideration, and all research needs investigating also, i try and reference as much as i can to at least demonstrate other major players are also seeing and investing in what i have invested in. and sugarkane imho is worth substantially more in the ground in texas than what they grow in queensland 

i know plenty who are very heavily invested, and all have the same ideal, invest for the outcome.. as it has the highest upside, and imho that is coming sooner than later..

this morning there are only 6100 shares available to buy.  thats an indication imho of a change coming on adi..

it appears that each day the eagleford play is becoming derisked more and more. 

eog for instance put out a presentation to their shareholders yesterday, and make no mention of their play nor its prospectiveness, despite having 2 rigs drilling EF wells in karnes county today, and 2 rigs drilling eagleford wells in gonzales ( a few miles north and across the county line where the conocophillips hooks well sits in dewitt)

petrohawk are spending 1 billion in exploring their 2 major shale plays in the coming 12 months

all imho and dyor


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## rock86

only 6000 shares left, nice. Yeh just had a quick squiz and it looks like ADI will open at around the 10c mark, hallelujah, some movement finally


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> in a word
> 
> absofriggenlutely
> 
> 
> 
> 
> miner
> 
> its always good to look at regional research, and it appears that i have gone from being laughed at in the early days to being somewhat correct about everything on the eagleford and the sugarkane. AUT have made it clear they believe its a legitimate play as have all jvp partners..
> 
> in terms of investing on the research, i always think that in a high risk high reward share such as adi is, then exposure to risk needs careful consideration, and all research needs investigating also, i try and reference as much as i can to at least demonstrate other major players are also seeing and investing in what i have invested in. and sugarkane imho is worth substantially more in the ground in texas than what they grow in queensland
> 
> i know plenty who are very heavily invested, and all have the same ideal, invest for the outcome.. as it has the highest upside, and imho that is coming sooner than later..
> 
> this morning there are only 6100 shares available to buy.  thats an indication imho of a change coming on adi..
> 
> it appears that each day the eagleford play is becoming derisked more and more.
> 
> eog for instance put out a presentation to their shareholders yesterday, and make no mention of their play nor its prospectiveness, despite having 2 rigs drilling EF wells in karnes county today, and 2 rigs drilling eagleford wells in gonzales ( a few miles north and across the county line where the conocophillips hooks well sits in dewitt)
> 
> petrohawk are spending 1 billion in exploring their 2 major shale plays in the coming 12 months
> 
> all imho and dyor





Thanks Agentm

In short I am brave to admit it and probably many are on the same road but will not admit that your research has been commendable. I am  at least getting value from  my investment reading your research notes.

There are few others like you in this ASF who also contribute their work and reserach notes  on  many other stocks which many of us reap the benefits.

I should also admit to thank one of the outstanding contributors who has helped  and coached me to write better English as well. 

Yes as you said, I am also learning to rely on outcomes leaving  emotion on stocks in the bin.

So my ADI is still looking good and thanks again.


----------



## Agentm

these presentations on the eagleford are extremely interesting, the improvements across the industry operators in the eagleford is something worth keeping in mind.. its obvious to me that all competitors are achieving significant improvements and learning off each other.. 

i would love some brokers in australia start to take note of this and countless other competitiors and appreciate that the eagleford, and in the case of adi, the sugarkane (eagleford and chalks combined) are the real deal..  ffs start talking it up i say


rosetta and swift like the eagleford and keep on looking at the resource potential there with very big upsides..

http://www.swiftenergy.com/SFY/Publications/Presentations-and-Speeches/2009/IPAA-OGIS-SFY-9-2009.pdf

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...A649/092909_OGIS_San_Francisco-M_Rosinski.pdf


*they both say very upbeat things about it, and report they had an eagleford well produce 5.57 mmcfpd on a 7 day run, then in our acreages a well like that would produce 1392 bopd based on the reports from adi.  swift report ip's as high as 9.7 mmcfpd, which equates to a 2375 bopd if they were flowing in the sugarkane acreages.  which gets you your well cost back in about 40 days!!

• It has very high liquids yield (250 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas – higher than the
50 to 100 barrels of oil per million cubic feet of gas reported in the Petrohawk areas). *


rosetta say:

Increased Eagle Ford acreage by 60% to over 40,000 net acres

Drilled 3 Eagle Ford wellsSpringer 

*Ranch #1H produced 39 MMcf during first seven days*
Gates #9 well completion pending
Vela #1 set up for horizontal drilling


Opportunistic Growth
South Texas Eagle Ford Shale


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## jancha

Hi AgentM
             Looks like your research into ADI seems to be coming to fruition. Not many sellers & sitting on 10.5c. All what it needs is a little push & I'd say it would take off. Good luck


----------



## rock86

wooooooooooowwww, finally a bit of descent of movement, and hit the 10c mark, I'm now starting to get excited. Atm I'm glad I waited


----------



## gdaf

Just a reminder folks - this stock hit $1.00 on 16/1/07 and started life in the mid 40s. For anybody that's been holding this patiently for a LONG time, these prices are pathetic. The current price is still reflecting one of the largest assets bubbles popping in history with next to no appetite for risk amongst the investment community. Remember too that the company had to raise money at 6c recently to stay alive. The difference between 2007 and now is massive, and can be seen in the share price. 

Of course there is upside from here, but there's no way it'll materialize until they are pumping large amounts gas and fluids down a pipeline to sales. I'm not being negative on the company, I think they've done very well just to survive. So many of these small cap companies have simply closed the doors and told shareholders 'bad luck'. That's the risk we take. If we get to $1.00 again, we will *all* be rewarded for our patience, but until then its still hold and hope for many.


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## Agentm

jancha said:


> Hi AgentM
> Looks like your research into ADI seems to be coming to fruition. Not many sellers & sitting on 10.5c. All what it needs is a little push & I'd say it would take off. Good luck




i would hope adi can report their cash from yemen is secured, and also a nice update on which well gets worked over first.

adi would also be considering acquisitions in the near term imho

i agree that .10 is hardly a comforting sp for holders, and i know many have doubled up when the distressed sellers took adi to .06.. i know i did

with the aussie dollar strengthening and the apparent strength in the oil keeps the sugarkane an attractive prospect.

its early days and there has been no news at all since the hilcorp announcement.. things must change soon and i hope in the near term we will all be clearer of the way forward.

good solid trading of late..


----------



## Agentm

great news

time to see some action..

Adelphi Energy Limited

Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF AMI: SUGARKANE GAS & CONDENSATE FIELD WORK PROGRAM

Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to announce that it has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), the operator of the Sugarloaf AMI, that planning and initial preparatory work has commenced on the stimulation and completion program for the 3 existing horizontal wells within the Sugarloaf AMI. This work forms the first stage of the workscope required to be funded by Hilcorp Energy (“Hilcorp”) to earn its interests in the field
under the recently announced farm-in deal.

The wells will be stimulated using a fracture design that is based upon recent operations within the Eagle Ford trend as well as taking account of the specific nature of the Sugarkane field. TCEI has advised that the major part of the work program is likely to start in November, subject to the availability of rigs and equipment. In preparation for the fracture stimulation operations, shallow water wells will be drilled and holding pits will be dug at each well
location. This work has commenced at the Weston -1H well. 

Prior to November, a rig will be mobilised to the Kowalik -1H well location to  attempt to pull the slotted liner which was originally deployed in the horizontal open hole of this well. If successful the rig will then run and cement a conventional liner and the well will be fracture stimulated in similar fashion to that planned for the other two horizontal wells. If the slotted
liner is unable to be recovered, it is likely that an acid stimulation will be attempted on the well. This alternative treatment has been successfully applied locally within the Austin Chalk.

In addition, planning has commenced for a 2010 drilling program as part of the recently announced farm-in deal, with the first wells drilled in this program likely to be within the Sugarloaf AMI. Under the terms of the Adelphi farm-out agreement all 3 new horizontal wells must have started by mid-2011 for Hilcorp to qualify for its full interest within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Whilst this program of work remains subject to change, it does represent a significant acceleration of activity on Adelphi’s Sugarloaf AMI acreage over the coming months. In addition to the Sugarloaf AMI wells, Hilcorp will also be involved in drilling up to 7 additional wells targeting the same play in adjoining acreage. As a result of this activity and the significant number of wells scheduled for drilling by competitor companies in the Eagle Ford
regional play near to the Sugarloaf AMI, we can expect to see continuous improvement in the understanding of and value of our asset.


Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI. Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf JV, and their respective working interests are currently:
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited 20%
Eureka Energy Limited 12.5%

This release is available on the Company’s website at: www.adelphienergy.com.au
For inquiries please contact:
Chris Hodge, Managing Director
Telephone: +61 8 9480 1300
Email: info@adelphienergy.com.au
Yours faithfully
CHRIS HODGE
Managing Director
Adelphi Energy Limited


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## philly

ADI has copped a speeding ticket from ASX. LOL The ASX [and the market] would do well to read the recent company announcements. Prospects are looking good for ADI now after a long wait. If ADI can get the cash from the Yemen sale soon it will further boost the SP. Happy to be a holder


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## Agentm

the part worthy of note is the 10 wells in 2010


*Planning has also commenced for a 2010 drilling program across the Sugarkane farmin area.

10 wells are scheduled to be drilled across the larger Sugarkane area next year with the first wells drilled in this program likely to be within the Sugarloaf AMI*

this has to impact on the prospectivity of the play surely?

7 tcf in ground is what adi claim is potentially there on its acreages alone!


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## Miner

Good work and Good reward Agentm

I am very pleased to see some outcome from your research is paid by stock prices.

Hope the good days have begun to pay off all those waitlisted

Dislcaimer : Of course I hold ADI


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## Agentm

Miner said:


> Good work and Good reward Agentm
> 
> I am very pleased to see some outcome from your research is paid by stock prices.
> 
> Hope the good days have begun to pay off all those waitlisted
> 
> Dislcaimer : Of course I hold ADI




hey miner

a .05 cent rise on news of a well completions and followed by a well being drilled every month in 2010 was very muted. infact adi had more of a rise last week on no news (if you believe that there was no leak which adi answered in the speeding ticket)

i will post up the front page of the houston chronicle a bit later, it may impress a few..


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## Agentm

a few friends from texas alerted me last night to the front page of houston chronicle yesterday



*MAMMOTH DISCOVERY*
*Companies bet big on South Texas gas find*
By BRETT CLANTON Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle

Last October, just as the economy was tilting into crisis, a small oil and gas company in Houston quietly announced the discovery of a mammoth natural gas field in South Texas that at any other time might have garnered bigger headlines.

Petrohawk Energy's find, however, did not go unnoticed in the oil and gas industry — and it didn't take long before oil companies large and small began making their moves.

Today, though the economy and natural gas prices remain weak, the Eagle Ford shale remains one of the hottest prospects in North America, and energy companies are moving forward there even as they're pulling back elsewhere.

That's because of what some companies suggest is a virtually recession-proof combination of highly productive wells and low drilling costs they say can yield profits even as natural gas prices hover near seven-year lows.

Also attractive: the flat South Texas ranch land, where obstacles are few and Gulf Coast oil and gas infrastructure is nearby; and landowners have grown comfortable with the industry after decades of oil drilling.

“You can certainly make more money from wells than cows,” said Joe Martin, whose family leased nearly 20,000 acres of land to Petrohawk in LaSalle County for drilling.

But it may still be a while before the full potential of the Eagle Ford shale is known. Though early results are promising, companies have been cautious about overstating what could be in the ground, especially since so few wells have been drilled so far.

“What we're going to find out, as with most shale plays, is there's going to be sweet spots,” said Bob Banks, chief operating officer at Swift Energy, a Houston-based oil company with nearly 90,000 acres leased in the Eagle Ford. “That's what we don't know yet, which areas are really going to work better than the others because it's pretty early days.”

Recently discovered U.S. shale plays, including the Haynesville in Louisiana and Marcellus in Pennsylvania, are expected to provide a major boost to U.S. natural gas supplies in coming years. The dense rock formations, once thought too difficult to explore, have been unlocked with the help of recent advances in drilling technology.

The core areas of the eight largest U.S. shale plays may contain 475 trillion cubic feet of recoverable resources, according to an estimate by Ross Smith Energy Group, an industry research firm in Calgary, Alberta. That's roughly ten times the size of Texas' famed Barnett shale play in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, which supplies nearly 10 percent of U.S. natural gas production, excluding Alaska.


*$3.88 break-even point*

While the Eagle Ford is among the smallest of the group, with some 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remaining, the economics is among the best, the firm said.

Producers in the Eagle Ford can break even when natural gas is priced as low as $3.88 per million British thermal units, the firm said, versus break-even prices of $5.18 in the Barnett, $3.74 in the Marcellus and $4.49 in the Haynesville.

Natural gas closed at $4.99 per million BTUs Monday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from nearly $14 in summer of 2008, amid a recession-related drop in demand and bulging stockpiles. Consumption will fall by 2.4 percent this year and remain flat in 2010, according to the Energy Information Administration's most recent short-term forecast.

*A potential boom*

Yet that has not stopped companies from pushing ahead in the Eagle Ford play, which starts near the Mexican border and extends east below San Antonio across a string of counties including Webb, Dimmit, LaSalle, McMullen and Live Oak.

“It's got the potential of being a boom,” said Martin, whose family leased to Petrohawk, noting that land prices in the region have risen to $1,500 per acre in some places, 10 times what they were two years ago.

Houston's Petrohawk, with 210,000 acres in the Eagle Ford, has been the most active. It operates 17 wells in the Eagle Ford and aims to add another seven or eight by year-end, said Joan Dunlap, the company's head of investor relations. This month, the company said it will sell its properties in West Texas' oil-rich Permian Basin to an unidentified privately held company for $376 million to focus on its assets in the Eagle Ford and Haynesville shale plays.

Asked if the Eagle Ford could be as big as other major U.S. shale gas plays, like the Barnett shale, Dunlap said, “it's a big question mark.”

Other oil and gas companies including Pioneer Natural Resources, Swift Energy and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. also have drilled wells in the Eagle Ford or are planning to in coming months.

Less clear are the intentions of Houston-based ConocoPhillips and Irving-based Exxon Mobil Corp., each of which has large acreage positions in the Eagle Ford.

Houston's ConocoPhillips, with 300,000 acres, considers the region “one of the top resource plays in the lower 48” and will concentrate much of its 2009 exploration spending in the Eagle Ford and other North American unconventional resource plays, spokesman Charlie Rowton said. But he declined to elaborate.

Exxon Mobil confirmed it holds an interest in the Eagle Ford shale in La Salle and McMullen counties, but a spokesman said, “the details of the exploration program are considered confidential.”

Exxon Mobil confirmed it holds an interest in the Eagle Ford shale in La Salle and McMullen counties, but a spokesman said, “the details of the exploration program are considered confidential.”

Bob Fryklund, industry analyst with IHS-Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Houston, said highly diversified oil majors may not have the same urgency to act as independent oil and gas producers do.

“This is just one portion of their portfolio, while for a lot of the independents it's their whole portfolio,” he said.

But increasing moves by major international oil companies into U.S. shale plays, he said, suggest they may see more potential there than they once did.


----------



## Miner

Agentm

Thanks for the detailed posting which unfolds more facts.

Holy Cow the break even point for eagleford could be at $3.88 ! 

I should have accumulated more ADI then. But it is okay.  I do not want to be greedy or seen as greedy. 

There were plenty red in my portfolio and gradually and slowly most of them are turning into green. Thanks to ASF and  contributors  like you and few others  have made fantastic input for dummies like me.  

Hope I can smile all through in this financial year


----------



## Agentm

just remember we are in the suagrkane, so its eagleford plus the chalks!!

and oil is not being produced at 50 - 100 bopd  off 1mmcfpd like the maujority are experiencing in the eagleford,  *but all wells in the sugarkane produce at 250 - 320 bopd per 1mmcfpd*

breakeven is way lower than that

bubba.. things are getting interesting in gonzales!!


http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=174819

Source: Lucas Energy
Lucas Energy, Inc. Ervin No.1 Well Drilling Progress

HOUSTON, Oct. 6, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Lucas Energy, Inc. (NYSE Amex:LEI) an independent oil and gas company (the "Company") based in Houston, Texas, today announced that the Ervin No.1 well, Gonzales County, Texas has reached TD (total depth) and has been logged and cased. *Preliminary analysis of the well logs indicate the potential for completions in three intervals: (1) the Buda formation, (2) the Eagleford Shale formation, and (3) the Austin Chalk formation. Expectations are that the successful completion of any one of these formations could result in a 5-10% increase in the Company's net production.*

William A. Sawyer, President and CEO of Lucas Energy, said, "The Ervin No.1 well is a part of our 2009-II joint venture program with partners that we hope will participate in additional drilling and workovers beyond the current six well program." Additional information will be posted on the Lucas web site (www.lucasenergy.com) within the next few days.


----------



## Miner

Hi Agentm et. al

I saw this ASX note from AZZ. It is not about ADI but tells the unfolding story about Eagleford Shale discovery. Their area is very near to ADI and we can enhance our correlation factor for similar zoning effect.


----------



## jancha

Finally ADI starting to see a bit of blue sky. Up around 14c without too many sellers looking positive.
 Sold out of WDR when i should held longer. I know they have nothing to do with this thread but it would be nice to know how & what are the tell tale signs (if any) of when to sell.
 Like WDR they had a retrace to 39c and have now jumped up to 70c with no apparent news.
 In your case Agentm would be pleased with the rewards with your constant research finally starting to pay off but a what point would you exit?


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Finally ADI starting to see a bit of blue sky. Up around 14c without too many sellers looking positive.
> Sold out of WDR when i should held longer. I know they have nothing to do with this thread but it would be nice to know how & what are the tell tale signs (if any) of when to sell.
> Like WDR they had a retrace to 39c and have now jumped up to 70c with no apparent news.
> In your case Agentm would be pleased with the rewards with your constant research finally starting to pay off but a what point would you exit?




i would think that 50% rise is just a small run up..   its old territory was .30 and its very hard to justify the sp being below that now that so much is being said about the sugarkane.

i know leasing is going through the roof atm,, with $2000 - $3000 being mentioned.. i know landowners getting many times what conoco paid a year ago..

i invested for an outcome, so when adi open up all the wells i will re assess 

imho the sugarkane is worth $2 to adi once the wells are up and running,  and i think adi will look for other opportunities once the yemen cash arrives..

many more green days to come imho.. cant see the downside on the share atm..


----------



## Simon29

AgentM,

Thank you for all of the research you've done into this stock. I've been lurking around for quite a while now, looking for an undervalued stock to enter. I did so with ADI at 7c and then some more at 8c and am now enjoying the ride like everybody else! 

Are you still accumulating at these levels? I'm thinking of buying some more..if 30c is the likely next stable point, 14c would seem cheap!


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> i would think that 50% rise is just a small run up..   its old territory was .30 and its very hard to justify the sp being below that now that so much is being said about the sugarkane.
> 
> i know leasing is going through the roof atm,, with $2000 - $3000 being mentioned.. i know landowners getting many times what conoco paid a year ago..
> 
> i invested for an outcome, so when adi open up all the wells i will re assess
> 
> imho the sugarkane is worth $2 to adi once the wells are up and running,  and i think adi will look for other opportunities once the yemen cash arrives..
> 
> many more green days to come imho.. cant see the downside on the share atm..




I like your confidence in the company & hear what your saying agentm. You've done a lot of the ground work on this ADI thread & deserve the credit on it. Well done.


----------



## jestex12

AgentM deserves the praises he is getting.  Since joining this thread my knowledge of the Eagleford has increased 10 fold due in most part to AgentM's research and 24/7 efforts.  There have been those who have doubted and critized AgentM's information but for some reason continue creaping back to this thread.  Finally, the information AgentM has been so gracious to share is coming to past.  Here's to AgentM and his on the spot invaluable research.


----------



## Agentm

Simon29 said:


> AgentM,
> 
> Thank you for all of the research you've done into this stock. I've been lurking around for quite a while now, looking for an undervalued stock to enter. I did so with ADI at 7c and then some more at 8c and am now enjoying the ride like everybody else!
> 
> Are you still accumulating at these levels? I'm thinking of buying some more..if 30c is the likely next stable point, 14c would seem cheap!




hey simon

i doubled up when trojan and a few others exited and forced the sp down to .06

i know a lot of holders who did the same

the old stomping ground of .30 is where adi used to sit, and imho what it has to offer today is way better than back then, with free wells coming and working capital, imho i am expecting a retrace to those levels myself. 






jancha said:


> I like your confidence in the company & hear what your saying agentm. You've done a lot of the ground work on this ADI thread & deserve the credit on it. Well done.




thanks jancha


----------



## adobee

adobee said:


> Dumped it yesterday... left the profits in to run.. (which are f.all)..
> Will revisit if some news comes out and has positive affect...  from buying before last announcement doesnt seem like it will be to hard to pick up on before hand..




Just my luck.. as usual exit just before the prices starts to go crazy !!
Good luck to those holders i think there will be some good news on the cards shortly


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> Just my luck.. as usual exit just before the prices starts to go crazy !!
> Good luck to those holders i think there will be some good news on the cards shortly




adobee

if adi have 7tcf potential in ground, and there are 3 laterals to be immediately put on production and 3 further wells to be drilled free carried, its most likely that the sp will go back to the historical safe regions of pre the crisis, and pre the massive sell off by the distressed major holders..

.30 is where it traded when it had potential and no production, now it has a far better understanding of potential and an immediate program of works that are being undertaken by TCEI/hilcorp.. production at commercial levels is very much what adi is about to explore in a big way on both levels of the sugarkane, chalks and eagleford..

my view is that the jvp will run back up to those historical points again, this time adi will have $6 mill in the bank and can also look at further aquisitions.

i know you bailed, so your recommendation was to sell, but i think you may have over looked the immediate plans before adi atm.

still to come in the days to come

$6 mill cash.. not yet factored in to the adi sp - which imho will have a positive impact on the sp very near term

Completion of the first lateral- which also has a big impact on the sp, both prior to the lateral being completed and post completion

post that hilcorp have 10 wells planned, and still have 2 more laterals in the chalks and eagleford to complete for production. all for late 2009/2010

i cant be critical of the way you trade, everyone has entry and exit strategies, but can i ask why you overlooked the immediate plans of adi, do you think they are not potentially company changing events in the next few weeks?

a good friend of mine was busily buying today into the jvp.. i think there is plenty of upside in this one and my view is strong on the hold and a strong buy also..  not at all seeing adi as a sell imho

my view on the sugarkane is $2 at a minimum to the adi share

dyor and all the best..


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> adobee
> 
> if adi have 7tcf potential in ground, and there are 3 laterals to be immediately put on production and 3 further wells to be drilled free carried, its most likely that the sp will go back to the historical safe regions of pre the crisis, and pre the massive sell off by the distressed major holders..
> 
> .30 is where it traded when it had potential and no production, now it has a far better understanding of potential and an immediate program of works that are being undertaken by TCEI/hilcorp.. production at commercial levels is very much what adi is about to explore in a big way on both levels of the sugarkane, chalks and eagleford..
> 
> my view is that the jvp will run back up to those historical points again, this time adi will have $6 mill in the bank and can also look at further aquisitions.
> 
> i know you bailed, so your recommendation was to sell, but i think you may have over looked the immediate plans before adi atm.
> 
> still to come in the days to come
> 
> $6 mill cash.. not yet factored in to the adi sp - which imho will have a positive impact on the sp very near term
> 
> Completion of the first lateral- which also has a big impact on the sp, both prior to the lateral being completed and post completion
> 
> post that hilcorp have 10 wells planned, and still have 2 more laterals in the chalks and eagleford to complete for production. all for late 2009/2010
> 
> i cant be critical of the way you trade, everyone has entry and exit strategies, but can i ask why you overlooked the immediate plans of adi, do you think they are not potentially company changing events in the next few weeks?
> 
> a good friend of mine was busily buying today into the jvp.. i think there is plenty of upside in this one and my view is strong on the hold and a strong buy also..  not at all seeing adi as a sell imho
> 
> *my view on the sugarkane is $2 at a minimum to the adi share*
> 
> dyor and all the best..




Hi Agentm

If I take your word again and  sugarkane background lifts ADI to $2 and I still hold the share then my 6.4 cents investment (To be frank I am the same person who bought GCR at 4.5 cents and lost many $$$ , bought ANZ  at $25 and sold at $13). Now  the return from ADI (and hopefully RAW in near future)  will pay off my mortgage if I hold  ADI until $2 price. 

I saw what you said and what happened. I like your guts, knowledge, confidence and courage.  You have shown me a dream so far to stick to the outcome . Now should I see my dream to bear real fruits ?


----------



## estseon

Miner,

Only you know your own pain threshold. My personal rule is that I should sell when the pain of seeing the share price halve is likely to exceed the joy of seeing it double. Each to his own.

ADI at this price is almost a lottery ticket except that the cash & receivables are worth about 4 cents. 

Usually with small explorers there is the risk of dusters. Neither TCEI not COP (next door) has failed to find HCs that flow. The problems encountered have been engineering: it's very hot down there and the natural fractures provide bursts of pressure. They drilled under-pressured and had all kinds of problems. COP lit up Texas one evening, I heard. They have also spent time and money on learning how to fracture the rock but there is more knowledge and experience now. TCEI is a partner with COP on the neighbouring acreage in Live Oak and so, one assumes, has information on what's going on.

The quandary (sell/hold) for me will be later, when the first results are through. But my spreadsheet tells me that the arithmetic for the reserves talked about could translate into a net asset per share of $4 although the company would not necessarily be priced at NAV.

If there's volume and the price is rising then there must be buying. Nobody would go to the bother of buying into a company with variable liquidity unless he had the hope of multiplying his money. So watch what other people do if you're not certain. It's the buying by others that will make you your profit. 

There has been talk of the wells having a commercial life of up to 20 years.


----------



## Agentm

Miner said:


> Hi Agentm
> 
> If I take your word again and  sugarkane background lifts ADI to $2 and I still hold the share then my 6.4 cents investment (To be frank I am the same person who bought GCR at 4.5 cents and lost many $$$ , bought ANZ  at $25 and sold at $13). Now  the return from ADI (and hopefully RAW in near future)  will pay off my mortgage if I hold  ADI until $2 price.
> 
> I saw what you said and what happened. I like your guts, knowledge, confidence and courage.  You have shown me a dream so far to stick to the outcome . Now should I see my dream to bear real fruits ?




if the eagleford flows, conservative inground value would be attributed to adi during the course of the infill wells, so $2 a share would be given, if it didnt i think a whole bunch of us would band together and make a cash bid for the company and delist it, then live off the profits for the rest of our lives 

still waiting for the yemen cash announcement, which i feel is the next big news stop for adi..

early october was promised,..


----------



## Agentm

things are moving along i hear in texas..

tcei and hilcorp are running along pretty quick

its likely the program could be advancing ahead of schedule on some wells

adi are a bit more like a passenger in terms of the timings, so a lot that was said in the announcements recently should be looked at closely

"The wells will be stimulated using a fracture design that is based upon recent operations within the Eagle Ford trend as well as taking account of the specific nature of the Sugarkane field. *TCEI has advised that the major part of the work program is likely to start in November,* subject to the availability of rigs and equipment. In preparation for the fracture stimulation operations, shallow water wells will be drilled and holding pits will be dug at each well
location. This work has commenced at the Weston -1H well.

*Prior to November, a rig will be mobilised to the Kowalik -1H well location to attempt to pull the slotted liner which was originally deployed in the horizontal open hole of this well. If successful the rig will then run and cement a conventional liner and the well will be fracture stimulated in similar fashion to that planned for the other two horizontal wells.* If the slotted
liner is unable to be recovered, it is likely that an acid stimulation will be attempted on the well. This alternative treatment has been successfully applied locally within the Austin Chalk."

also

*In addition, planning has commenced for a 2010 drilling program as part of the recently announced farm-in deal, with the first wells drilled in this program likely to be within the Sugarloaf AMI.*


imho there needs to be some consideration that these events recently posted with the asx are indeed materialising in karnes county

imho the plans are done, the frac designs done and the preparation works are in full swing for all the above..  

looking good for plenty of news in the very near future


----------



## Agentm

conocophillips put in a new permit for their sugarkane field

this time it is on the mcmullen live oak county border way east of the kunde wells, and imho on the far eastern fringe of their leases..

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...ery=Y&name=PLOMERO+RANCH+&univDocNo=485803154


i hear there is a workover unit on kowalik circulating  and lubricating the slotted liner in readiness to pull the liner out.

things are advancing fast on the 3 laterals.  there will be no stopping tcei from immediate action in stimulating and fracing these three laterals in the very near term once they have the dams in place and the water wells drilled..

november is mentioned as a point in time when things can happen, its remotely possible that before then the ops can commence..

cheers


----------



## martyfar

Many thanks to all the contributors on this thread, and particular thanks to Agentm for his generosity in sharing his research and his knowledge 

With the fracs on the three laterals now confirmed,  can anyone offer an opinion on whether a lateral off the vertical well Sugarloaf 1 is a  possibility ??


----------



## Hatchy

Martyfar - Go back through this thread and you'll see a video posted of what a lateral drill involves - should answer your question. 




:bananasmi


----------



## Agentm

martyfar said:


> Many thanks to all the contributors on this thread, and particular thanks to Agentm for his generosity in sharing his research and his knowledge
> 
> With the fracs on the three laterals now confirmed,  can anyone offer an opinion on whether a lateral off the vertical well Sugarloaf 1 is a  possibility ??




they are buying out old wells in the chalks in gonzales and reentering into the eagleford with them

doing a lateral in the sugarloaf 1 well is not out of the question at all

great to see a permit by conocophillips looking at the furtherest westerly point of their acreages also

imho there is plenty happening on the ground at the wells to demonstrate its seriously going ahead in a hurry


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> they are buying out old wells in the chalks in gonzales and reentering into the eagleford with them
> 
> doing a lateral in the sugarloaf 1 well is not out of the question at all
> 
> great to see a permit by conocophillips looking at the furtherest westerly point of their acreages also
> 
> imho there is plenty happening on the ground at the wells to demonstrate its seriously going ahead in a hurry




Hi Agentm
              Noticed a lot of activity with BCC. Do you know where Lee County is in relationship to ADI grounds and what are your thoughts on BCC?


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Hi Agentm
> Noticed a lot of activity with BCC. Do you know where Lee County is in relationship to ADI grounds and what are your thoughts on BCC?




hey jancha

its a little o/t.. but i did make some comments on them a while ago regarding my opinion on their management and in particular the bhp level of remuneration..

when your a small cap explorer and the gas price hits the wall, its one sure fire way to decimate a company imho

i noticed they recently resurrected a very difficult well that blindsided the market, it got a bit of a run, which would be great for long term holders and anyone clever enough to see it and get in..

i have studied and researched their lee county plans.. i am not sure of what to make of it atm. earlier trends indicated the eagleford trend fell short of their county, but more recent ones are changing my view on it.. 

i dont have them on my watch list but had them for a while on watch, i hope they make it but i consider their management, as well qualified as it is, to be very eager for monetary reward which heavily impacts revenue available for exploration imho. but should they get through with lee county it may change things. 

sorry about long reply.. its way o/t.. but i am real comfortable being invested smack in the middle of the conocophilips sugarkane play they so cleverly snared with tcei...  imho its got more short term upside than anything else atm.. in a few weeks the wells get stimulated, maybe earlier.. and if they demonstrate what all the other wells are, its going to be hard seeing adi stay in low teens, imho its quite easy for a share to go back to its .30's range in quick fashion with any sign of success..the AUT and eka indications are that they are prepared to talk it up real big. it will impact on the adi also by default.. adi is certainly out trading the other two atm bigtime. in the past the heavy trading on adi with news on the positive always brought the sp up leaps and bounds..


----------



## fscmark

Hey guys, I just registered here after reding this thread and what you guys have to say about the Eagle Ford Shale. I currently work for Halliburton and am being sent to the area from Bossier ( haynesville ) area to frac. Just 3 months ago we were sent to Bossier to help with the frac crews here because of the haynesville popularity. Now it seems Halliurton is focusing its attention to the Eagle Ford. So looks like we will be busy in that area for a while. Lots of good info here guys!


----------



## jestex12

Welcome fscmark,

I noticed halliburton was starting to lick there chops regarding the Eagleford.

http://www.halliburton.com/ps/default.aspx?navid=1614&pageid=3027

Anyhow welcome this thread is imho the leading source for all things Eagleford and much of the credit goes to AgentM.


----------



## fscmark

yah I noticed agentm has alot of useful information.  Right now we are hearing Halliburton will be splitting up its frac horsepower evenly between Pennsylvania, Haynesville and EagleFord. We currently have a 16 stage round the clock frac starting this sunday on the briscoe-nunley. I'll let ya know how that goes.


----------



## Agentm

fscmark said:


> Hey guys, I just registered here after reding this thread and what you guys have to say about the Eagle Ford Shale. I currently work for Halliburton and am being sent to the area from Bossier ( haynesville ) area to frac. Just 3 months ago we were sent to Bossier to help with the frac crews here because of the haynesville popularity. Now it seems Halliurton is focusing its attention to the Eagle Ford. So looks like we will be busy in that area for a while. Lots of good info here guys!




absolutely welcome fscmark

i was talking to my mate in texas just a minute ago.. he was liking the rain they have been having and its hotting up in the eagleford alright.

pioneer have spudded their second live oak well into the eagleford this week, 

API Number: 42-297-34849  	
Location:Live Oak ,   Texas
Current Well Type: Active Permit  	
Status: drilling in progress 
Current Lease Name: 	ROBERT CRAWLEY GAS UNIT 
Event:	Surface  	
Event Date: 	10/11/2009 00:00  	
Event Depth:	 
Operator (ph):	PIONEER NATURAL RES. USA, INC.  	
Well Number:1 
Drilling Contractor:	H AND P DRILLING  	
Rig Number:	254 
Company Man:	JEFFERY MOEHRIG  ( 713-422-4236 )
Location:	3 MILES NW FROM THREE RIVERS ON HWY 281. 
Casing Depth:	3,000.0  	
Casing Size: 	13 3/8 
Cementer:	 
Comments: 	CALLED INTO THE ANSWER SERVICE (WEEKEND) SPUD IN CALL NO CEMENTER REPORTED DI ADVISORY: NO S/C DATE GIVEN, USED SPUD DATE AS ESTIMATE. 




i liked this comment about petrohawk on another forum from plunger

Petrohawk gets coverage all good ;-)

Stocks on the move [HOT-RTRS]
Real-time Equity news [U E] [RESF/US]
U.S. stock market report [.N]
1138 ET 14Oct2009-KeyBanc starts coverage on Petrohawk, stock up
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KeyBanc on Wednesday started coverage on Petrohawk Energy Corp (HK.N) with a "buy" rating, citing the quality of the company's exposure to the Haynesville and Eagle Ford Shale plays.

*The company is "the best way for investors to gain exposure to what we
believe are two of the most economic natural gas plays in the United States,"*
the firm wrote to clients.
For details, see [ID: nBNG475266]
Shares rose 3.5 percent to $27.21.


imho adi is also one of the best ways to get exposure to the eagleford and more importantly the sugarkane with 250 -  350 bopd per 1 mmcfpd gas

all imho and dyor


----------



## Agentm

fscmark said:


> yah I noticed agentm has alot of useful information.  Right now we are hearing Halliburton will be splitting up its frac horsepower evenly between Pennsylvania, Haynesville and EagleFord. We currently have a 16 stage round the clock frac starting this sunday on the briscoe-nunley. I'll let ya know how that goes.




try and beat the frac record at the conocophillips at bordovsky 

i think it goes without saying that any info on how the fracs are going in the eagleford in the  region is extremely interesting..

i have been hearing for a while that the 16 stage fracs are what a lot of operators are progressing towards...

cheers


----------



## Agentm

this report imho is very interesting..

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2009

*EAGLEFORD SHALE: MORE COMPANIES JOINING THE PARTY FOCUS
*
Eagleford Shale well performance and activity update

METHODOLOGY

• Reviewed public data on recent wells.

• Examined company news releases, presentations and regulatory fi lings.

• Talked to producers, consultants and land agents active in the Texas play.

*KEY POINTS
BP (BP), Williams Companies (WMB), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Exxon
Mobil (XOM), Bill Barrett (BBG), Forest Oil (FST) and Chesapeake Energy
(CHK) are all window-shopping or actively leasing in the Eagleford.
*
Southwest

Some notable new wells in the Eagleford’s southwest region since our last
update include a test by Common Resources (Southwestern Energy’s (SWN)
and Cabot Oil & Gas’ (COG) partner in the Haynesville) that offsets
Petrohawk (HK) acreage. Privately owned Common’s well had a rate of 4.7
MMcf/d of gas and 474 bbl/d of condensate on a 24/64-inch choke.
HK’s test rates in La Salle County, continue to impress, with the latest few
in the 6-13 MMcfe/d range. HK is moving from 10- to 12-stage fracture
stimulations to 15-18 stages. The wells for which we have completion
information show increasing proppant volumes as well.
St. Mary Land & Exploration (SM) drilled and completed two follow-up
wells in Webb County, which will be about 1,000 feet deeper than its fi rst
well, the Briscoe G 1H. The Briscoe had a true vertical depth (TVD) of
about 7,500 feet and tested at 4.4 MMcf/d plus ~190 bbl/d of condensate on
a 48/64 choke, but the rate declined to 2.2 MMcfe/d in the second month
of production. The Eagleford where HK is drilling is found about 3,000 feet
deeper than at Briscoe. Compared to HK, SM will likely see lower rates
because of the shallower depths but also lower well costs.
El Paso (EP) spudded a well in southern La Salle while Murphy Oil (MUR)
has one drilling in McMullen. MUR currently holds six Eagleford permits,
spread over Karnes, La Salle and McMullen counties.
We’ve heard Anadarko Petroleum (APC) is constructing a 12-tank oil
battery offsetting its recent Briscoe Cochina East Ranch #1H on the La
Salle/Dimmit county line.

Consistent with comments made in HK’s 2Q09 conference call, the company is leasing updip in the Eagleford’s oil window in Zavala County. This would be a low-cost call option on oil if HK can make it work as acreage costs should be signifi cantly lower than in the derisked, higher productivity gas window. In addition, CHK has taken some leases in the oily area and is getting
active in the trend. When analyzing exposure to the Eagleford, investors should be sure to differentiate between the oily and gassy areas as they are very different plays.

On trend gassy acreage along HK’s position is now going upwards of $2,000/acre.

Along with expected results from Rosetta Resources (ROSE), SM and Swift Energy’s (SFY) farm-out, expect more news fl ow soon from this part of the play.

*Central

We have peak calendar-month production data on Pioneer Natural Resources’ (PXD) Friedrichs 1H in DeWitt County, which had a botched completion. It produced only 570 Mcfe/d in its second month (June) and was down to 350 Mcfe/d in July. PXD reported an initial fl ow rate of 3.7 MMcfe/d.

PXD is drilling its second Eagleford horizontal well, this one in Live Oak, about 57 miles southwest of the Friedrichs #1. FST and PXD are reportedly leasing in this area at $1,500/acre.

GeoSouthern Resources drilled the Migura 1 horizontal in DeWitt County, which tested at 789 Mcf/d of gas and 129 bbl/d of condensate.
XTO Energy (XTO) applied for a new Eagleford fi eld designation in southeast Atascosa County, in its Fashing fi eld. The vertical discovery well had a condensate yield of 147 bbl/MMcf, which is even higher than the yields seen out of APC/TXCO Resources (TXCOQ) wells in southern Dimmit.

EOG Resources (EOG) is drilling a second horizontal well offset the Milton Unit 1. The company continues to lease in the area and is moving updip into Wilson and Gonzales counties. EOG applied for a new fi eld designation called the “Golden Eagle” (second and third preferences are “Osprey” and “Eagle’s Claw”).

ConocoPhillips (COP) drilled two wells in northern Live Oak County, which we are keeping an eye on. There is no information available at this time.
Northeast Apache (APA) drilled its fi rst gas-directed Eagleford horizontal in Brazos County. Results were unimpressive – the well’s peak calendar-month rate was 260 Mcf/d, and it had cumulative production of only 19.5 MMcf after four months. *


----------



## fscmark

Agentm said:


> try and beat the frac record at the conocophillips at bordovsky
> 
> i think it goes without saying that any info on how the fracs are going in the eagleford in the  region is extremely interesting..
> 
> i have been hearing for a while that the 16 stage fracs are what a lot of operators are progressing towards...
> 
> cheers




I'd like to hear more about that conoco/bordovsky frac. Ive been on some pretty large fracs, including what was supposedly the largest nitrogen frac in the US. But yah 16 stages seem to be the norm these days. Averaging 13 stages over here at Haynesville running about 100bpm. 

Thats a really interesting pic you attached.


----------



## Agentm

hey fscmark

there is a pm (private mail) system on this site, so you can pm me and i can get you the original article if you like

bordovsky well started fraccing on the 4th july..!!

they are still fraccing it,  like most wells conoco are doing, they are experimenting with all different completions. the frc guys are thinking about where to buy a house in karnes its taking so long they may need to retire there 

they did an eagleford well in live oak, its called eskew west, its a one stage frac so far..

they did 4 tests the last one they got 975 static choke pressure 	3550 mcfpd flow  7200 run time  	24/64 choke  	2215 psi .. 

about 875 bopd on that rate


they put this on the completion report.. for the frac

13147 - 16671 -    417146# 40/80 HYDOPROP, 1051060# 30/60


looks one stage?  

what are your thoughts?


----------



## fscmark

Agentm said:


> try and beat the frac record at the conocophillips at bordovsky
> 
> i think it goes without saying that any info on how the fracs are going in the eagleford in the  region is extremely interesting..
> 
> i have been hearing for a while that the 16 stage fracs are what a lot of operators are progressing towards...
> 
> cheers






Agentm said:


> hey fscmark
> 
> there is a pm (private mail) system on this site, so you can pm me and i can get you the original article if you like
> 
> bordovsky well started fraccing on the 4th july..!!
> 
> they are still fraccing it,  like most wells conoco are doing, they are experimenting with all different completions. the frc guys are thinking about where to buy a house in karnes its taking so long they may need to retire there
> 
> they did an eagleford well in live oak, its called eskew west, its a one stage frac so far..
> 
> they did 4 tests the last one they got 975 static choke pressure 	3550 mcfpd flow  7200 run time  	24/64 choke  	2215 psi ..
> 
> about 875 bopd on that rate
> 
> 
> they put this on the completion report.. for the frac
> 
> 13147 - 16671 -    417146# 40/80 HYDOPROP, 1051060# 30/60
> 
> 
> looks one stage?
> 
> what are your thoughts?




from the looks of your pictures earlier in this thread, it looks like Halliburton is the one fraccing it. Halliburton Mountain movers and Belts. Im going to have to figure out which crew it is. 
As for the completion report, looks like they frac'd between 13147 and 16671 ft and used two types of sand, both are what we are primarily using these days on the Haynesville. But the totals are quite a bit for 1 stage. Sounds more like 4 stages worth of sand. I'll pm you for that article.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Top 20 Shareholders
As at 09 October 2009

Rank Shareholder Total Units  
1 ARC Energy Limited 47,864,000 
2 Mr Alexander Forcke 3,000,000 
3 ANZ Nominees Limited <Cash Income A/C> 1,751,243 
4 Streitberg Family  1,705,000 
5 Mrs Sharon Teresa Lydeamore 1,539,679 
6 Riley Group  1,477,779 
7 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 1,315,326 
8 Libbit Holdings Pty Ltd <Bitomsky Super Fund No 1 A/C> 1,283,332 
9 J J N A Super Pty Ltd <Chatterton Family Super A/C> 1,252,446 
10 Taperslee Pty Ltd <Major Family A/C>  1,114,219 
11 Mr Dallas John William Allman + Mrs Judith Dawn Allman <D J W & J D Allman S/F A/C> 1,000,000 
12 Lorilaw Pty Ltd 1,000,000 
13 J J N A Pty Ltd  997,612 
14 Mr Thomas Brian Cannon  951,000 
15 Michael Craft Pty Ltd <M J Craft Pty Ltd S/F A/C > 950,000 
16 Etrade Australia Nominees Pty Limited  884,472 
17 Mr Neil Hargreaves + Mrs Lois Valma Hargreaves  855,000 
18 Comsec Nominees Pty Limited  807,739 
19 Mr Paul Nagle + Mrs Jacqueline Terri Nagle <PJ Nagle S/F A/C>  805,000 
20 Michael Craft Pty Ltd <Superannuation Fund Account> 800,000 
  TOTAL 71,353,847 

Well the excitement is really building here.

Some new names in the Top 20 and others increasing there shareholding.

Novemeber may turn out to be a company defining momment for ADI and one alot have been waiting for on the rollercoaster ride.

Management have impressed with there proffesionalism and commitment to getting the job done now we await the results.


----------



## Miner

Lucky_Country said:


> Top 20 Shareholders
> As at 09 October 2009
> 
> Rank Shareholder Total Units
> 1 ARC Energy Limited 47,864,000
> 2 Mr Alexander Forcke 3,000,000
> 3 ANZ Nominees Limited <Cash Income A/C> 1,751,243
> 4 Streitberg Family  1,705,000
> 5 Mrs Sharon Teresa Lydeamore 1,539,679
> 6 Riley Group  1,477,779
> 7 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 1,315,326
> 8 Libbit Holdings Pty Ltd <Bitomsky Super Fund No 1 A/C> 1,283,332
> 9 J J N A Super Pty Ltd <Chatterton Family Super A/C> 1,252,446
> 10 Taperslee Pty Ltd <Major Family A/C>  1,114,219
> 11 Mr Dallas John William Allman + Mrs Judith Dawn Allman <D J W & J D Allman S/F A/C> 1,000,000
> 12 Lorilaw Pty Ltd 1,000,000
> 13 J J N A Pty Ltd  997,612
> 14 Mr Thomas Brian Cannon  951,000
> 15 Michael Craft Pty Ltd <M J Craft Pty Ltd S/F A/C > 950,000
> 16 Etrade Australia Nominees Pty Limited  884,472
> 17 Mr Neil Hargreaves + Mrs Lois Valma Hargreaves  855,000
> 18 Comsec Nominees Pty Limited  807,739
> 19 Mr Paul Nagle + Mrs Jacqueline Terri Nagle <PJ Nagle S/F A/C>  805,000
> 20 Michael Craft Pty Ltd <Superannuation Fund Account> 800,000
> TOTAL 71,353,847
> 
> Well the excitement is really building here.
> 
> Some new names in the Top 20 and others increasing there shareholding.
> 
> Novemeber may turn out to be a company defining momment for ADI and one alot have been waiting for on the rollercoaster ride.
> 
> Management have impressed with there proffesionalism and commitment to getting the job done now we await the results.




Interesting IJH and looks like you are crusing to be the winner for Oct tipping too.

BTW which one is Agentm out of top 20  - JJNA if A stands for Agentm?


----------



## adobee

ADI looking really good at the moment.. Cant believe I sold out a few weeks ago.. but couldnt resist buying back in today even after missing 140% return... sell side is just so small.. any news or hint of news out of this and people wont be able to buy any shares ..


----------



## Agentm

AI have gone from .06 to .175

and imho once it nears the frac of the 3 laterals commencing november there will a real buying surge into the share..  speculation on the results and then some serious reratings afterwards.. thats normal pre drill or pre frac in these types of stocks

my view is that the safe haven of the .30's is where adi is trending atm.. its getting a healthy turnover of stock compared to the jvp partners.. 

its clear eog have put in a lot of permits in mcmullin county as well. so gonzales, karnes atascosa and mcmullen exploration wells are all on the planning and drilling

imho murphy will drill their karnes well real soon

lots of preparations for sites all over the place atm..

intersting days ahead


----------



## JOHAUD

Informative info. from iii bb
 re.drilling

 It doesn't matter what the formation is, it's a lot harder to control the well-path in a horizontal well than a vertical well. There can be many obstacles, from poor hole cleaning, differential sticking of the drillpipe, the drilling assembly hanging up on ledges, hole stability problems, and directional drilling control problems.

Specialist directional drillers, with tools specifically designed for directional drilling are required. This adds considerable cost to the well, and it means that a horizontal drilling project is not usually considered unless there is already very good reason to commit to the additional expense. I have no idea about the reservoir characteristics for this project but but when you are looking for production from fractured formations, you vastly increase your production potential by drilling extended reach horizontal wells. 

The tools available for directional drilling can be very basic downhole motors, to very high tech rotary steerable systems, it depends on how deep the pockets of the oil company, and how much the drilling rig costs per day, as to what tools they might consider to use. Obviously if your drilling rig is costing a small fortune everyday, it will be more cost effective to use more advanced tools in the hope of drilling the well quicker. 

With all the problems you can get, from the geology not being exactly as expected, to hole problems, and drilling tool problems, it is not unusual for a two month project to end up being 3 or 4 months. This is why when an oil company say's it will have a rig in 45 days to start drilling their well, it often turns up a month or two later. Because the last company to use the rig just might be stuck in hole and unable to release the rig. This sort of thing happens all the time, and projects are always slipping. 

I hope this helps answer your question, but I guess it will just lead to a whole lot more! 


By tbo


----------



## Agentm

johaud

i have no idea what that comment has to do with ADI? i am aware of the bb, as i posted on it years back, but never again.. if i understand it the bb discussion you pasted was about the long delays and possible reasons for them relating to the eme well, which is an austin chalks well called quinn, which they are drilling atm in east texas?  am i right?

cheers..

fscmark..

i was alerted to this article by an adi investor, it was interesting as the cobra frac system is one that conocophillips is messing with on some wells, i know it was used in kunde 3 horizontal on the regions in the lateral where there were no natural fractures in the austin chalks. i suspect they didnt give up on it either..

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=81021


Halliburton Rolls Out Solutions for Unconventional Gas Reservoirs

Monday, October 05, 2009

At the Society of Petroleum Engineers' Annual Technical Convention and Exhibition in New Orleans, Halliburton introduced new solutions designed to help operators address the challenges they face with unconventional gas reservoirs due to significant variances across plays, increasing reservoir complexity and rapid production decline.

"Halliburton understands and is responding to these challenges," said David King, president, Completion and Production Division, Halliburton.

"Experience shows that improving overall reservoir understanding, along with offering customized solutions, can help operators develop assets that could not be technically or economically produced before."

For example, Halliburton's Stimulation for the Digital Asset™ workflow now provides the capability to view real-time stimulation data in engineering, geological and geophysical interpretation environments. This enables operators to use all the information they have not only to monitor and adjust treatments on the fly, but also to design better stimulation treatments, improve perforation strategies, and improve field development plans. This workflow brings together leading solutions from Halliburton’s fracturing, microseismic mapping, and software products and services.

*The company's Cobra Frac ® H coiled-tubing-based fracturing service helps operators achieve increased fracture intensity by enabling the placement of virtually an unlimited number of fractures in the horizontal section of a well. This solution, based on Halliburton's unique treatment process coupled with a new bottomhole assembly using advanced elastomer technology, has already provided significantly improved production from more than 30 horizontal wellbores in Canada's Spearfish tight-sand formation. The Cobra Frac H service utilizes a bottomhole assembly which enables post-frac analysis to determine treatment effectiveness and it can also be used to efficiently refracture existing wellbores.*

Halliburton also has a new extreme-temperature synthetic fracturing fluid comprising the first system that performs confidently at temperatures above 450 °F while providing the proppant transport capabilities critical for the successful fracturing of deeper, hotter formations. In addition, this fluid system does not require a formation cool-down process, as did previous systems, which often contributes to poor initial well performance. This new fluid system is helping operators turn high-temperature discovered resources into producing assets.

Halliburton also helps operators manage the health, safety and environmental aspects of chemistry used in stimulation treatments with the Chemistry Scoring Index, which assigns a numeric score to each chemical used in the stimulation treatment. This solution can provide a solid basis for choosing more environmentally focused chemistry while reconciling it with overall well-completion costs.


----------



## jestex12

Not new but a good article imho:

Pub. July 2009

http://www.tidalpetroleum.com/downloads/Emerging_Shale-Fly_Like_An_Eagle_Ford_Article.pdf


----------



## jestex12

Taken today from the Fort Worth Business Press.


New shale play gives Texas oil, gas in four directions

BY JOHN-LAURENT TRONCHE
October 19, 2009 

In a seemingly nonstop line of emerging shale plays, the Eagle Ford Shale of southwest Texas, near the Texas-Mexico border, is just the latest during the past several years to spark interest, but many companies see potential all the same.

Since Houston’s Petrohawk Energy Corp. “discovery” well – the shale was known to exist but sat untouched for decades – one year ago, the Eagle Ford Shale steadily has raised interested eyebrows from industry exploration and production companies large and small. Now, at least 10 producers have drilled or will drill wells in the play to get a better idea of its true size and potential.

The shale is located south of San Antonio running in a crescent moon shape from the coast to the western border of the state. It begins in Dimmit and Webb counties at its westernmost and runs through La Salle, McMullen and Live Oak counties before turning northeast in a diagonal line through Bee, Karnes, Goliad, De Witt, Lavaca and Colorado counties. Thickness is estimated anywhere between 150 feet and 475 feet and Petrohawk estimates drilling and completion costs for wells at about $5 million or more.

Petrohawk now boasts 210,000 acres in the play, and recently sold its Permian Basin assets for $376 million to a private company to shift focus on its Haynesville and Eagle Ford assets. The company isn’t alone either. Other players that have taken up stakes in the play include Apache Corp., Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Swift Energy Co., EOG Resources Inc., Rosetta Resources Inc., ConocoPhillips Co., XTO Energy Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corp. and more.

Some numbers

Leasing in the Eagle Ford Shale has been concentrated in Karnes, De Witt and Colorado counties since December 2008. In Karnes, 818 leases have been signed, compared to 561 leases in De Witt, 386 leases in Colorado, and 374 leases in Live Oak County. Goliad has experienced the least interest with 62 leases, according to August data from The Tobin Monthly, a newsletter that publishes data compiled by P2 Energy Solutions Inc., an oil and gas software, data and services company.

“I’ve seen some numbers that in the Eagle Ford you can be more economical and more profitable than in other areas such as the Marcellus,” said Tom Neubert, senior vice president of data operations at P2 Energy Solutions. “Is it different? I think the only things I’ve heard are the ability to produce oil and it’s just a low break-even point.”

Needless to say, the interest is good but many companies are playing their cards close to their chests.

XTO Energy CEO Keith Hutton recently acknowledged the company had some acreage in the Eagle Ford Shale, saying the company was watching it closely but would not comment just yet.

An EOG Resources spokeswoman also said the Houston-based company would not comment on its Eagle Ford Shale development at this time.

Overseas visitors

The shale also has interested some producers from abroad. Brisbane, Australia-based Texon Petroleum Ltd. has been drilling for oil and gas in McMullen County, east of La Salle County, for more than a year, but its fifth Leighton Project well, begun October 10, will be the company’s first to tap into the Eagle Ford.

“It’s an emerging play, it has oil associated with it and gas prices are improving,” said CEO David Mason. “We wanted to assess the value of what we have on our properties so we’re just deepening to get a look.”

Texon Petroleum is drilling with a planned depth of 11,300 feet. The Eagle Ford rests at about 10,500 feet, Mason said, and another oil reservoir is located at about 8,700 feet. Results are expected around the beginning of November, and should the well produce, it would be Texon Petroleum’s fifth producer in 

the zone.

“Petrohawk is to the south of us. San Isidro is drilling a horizontal well just now,” Mason said. “We’ve just been watching the trend and we wanted to evaluate the potential in our area and it doesn’t cost us much more to go a bit deeper.”

San Isidro Development Co. is the operator on the Yellow Rose project, also in McMullen County, in which another Australian producer, Antares Energy Ltd., has a 75 percent working interest. The latter announced Oct. 12 it acquired 500 additional acres, giving it working interests of between 50 percent and 75 percent in more than 17,800 prospective Eagle Ford Shale acres.

Antares Energy’s James Cruickshank, CEO and managing director, said the company divested its Turkish and Australian assets so it could focus entirely on oil and gas production along the Gulf Coast. The company has drilled in the area for several years, but its most recent well is, like Texon’s, its first Eagle Ford Shale well. The companies will drill down 11,300 feet and horizontally another 3,000 feet. Antares Energy and San Isidro already hit gas at 11,100 feet during another well.

“Our desire is to become a significant Eagle Ford player,” Cruickshank said. He added, “We’d like to develop the largest possible reserves, production and revenue possible from our Eagl Ford prospects. We certainly see a lot of prospectivity and upside potential in the Eagle Ford.”


----------



## jestex12

Adelphia Energy Limited annual report 2009
October 19, 2009

http://newsstore.smh.com.au/apps/previewDocument.ac?docID=GCA00999933ADI


----------



## Agentm

bordovsky is flaring big time.. off two flare towers

so the eagleford is good to the east of the adi acreages.. good for AUT holders imho also


the kowalik well has a rig over hole attempting to pull the pipe.

all wells have operations on them atm

ops can begin pretty quick.. imho november is equally as prospective as october..

all imho and dyor


----------



## Agentm

things are getting interesting

This little map shows various operators and where they are active.

Firstly, the conoco phillips acreages extend from mcmullen/liveoak county line to mid dewitt county and perhps a little further.. in there are operators like TCEI/Hilcorp (with ADI in partnership) and Murphy, Weber, and a few other smaller operators.. Pioneer also has acreages in the belt

Conoco just put in a permit last week for the Plomero ranch on the western fringe or the bookend with petrohawks acreages in mcmullen and lasalle

The far eastern well. Hooks did flow pretty good, they tested it a few months back.. its all sugarkane to there (chalks and eagleford) and our jvp and pioneer have talked about the chalks and eagleford being active in karnes/ live oak and dewitt..

south of the conoco acreages is the pioneer acreages, they are drilling a eagelford well right now in live oak just a mile or so south of the conoco plomero ranch well.

EOG is a newcomer, in the last 3 months they have been drilling like all stink.. they have yet to really let their shareholders know of what the heck they are doing in the counties, as they are still very active in leasing right now as we speak.. i hear as many as 40 landmen are involved for them atm

in karnes they drilled 5 eagleford wells and have opened up one at least.. in gonzales they have the same 3 rigs going full tilt on 3 eagleford wells there right now today.. they have permits in place for 3 wells just north of the ADI kowalik well in karnes county and in atascosa north of the conoco phillips plomero another cluster, and also a cluster in mc mullen further east

sheepishly in lasalle, el paso is quietly at work on an eagleford well. been keeping a close watch on it as it about to be fraced.. the well is locked down with security and no one is prepared to talk about it atm..

petrohawk as we all know in the east have been making huge noises about their discovery and their progress is very much advanced..

what i am hearing is that many operators are all designing varied frac designs, and some are utilising very advanced frac methods (ala conoco and the cobra frac)

in the adi acreages a rig sits over kowalik atm, and the weston well is being prepared for a frac, kennedy is also being prepared

Ihere is a the massive well in kenedy township is also completed, and rumor is that the well was an eagleford well.. i hear another near by it is also on the go and possibly eagleford also..

the conocophillips bordovsky well just east of ADI's acreages is also ready for production, and has been flaring massive flares a few night back on dual flare towers. the flares were seen from runge, kenedy and karnes city

each day i see more and more evidence that the rock adi sit on is producing north south east and west in the eagleford and chalks..

looking forward to the very near future (only days away imho) when adi announce what well is fraccing first and where things are at..

all imho and dyor


----------



## adobee

*looking forward to the very near future (only days away imho) when adi announce what well is fraccing first and where things are at..*


How are you deriviing this opinion ??? If this is the case I will start buying more today ... Cant wait for update on this one ..


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> *looking forward to the very near future (only days away imho) when adi announce what well is fraccing first and where things are at..*
> 
> 
> How are you deriviing this opinion ??? If this is the case I will start buying more today ... Cant wait for update on this one ..




Trouble is if there's no news out soon the share price will drop pruely from share holders getting restless & taking a quick profit. More sellers around today than a few weeks ago so price could come down for a better price pick up.


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> *looking forward to the very near future (only days away imho) when adi announce what well is fraccing first and where things are at..*
> 
> 
> How are you deriviing this opinion ??? If this is the case I will start buying more today ... Cant wait for update on this one ..




sounds like your a short term investor, or are you topping up? , day trading adi can be very painful. imho adi is a long term share atm but with some serious short term (1-3 month) re rating potential..

so purely from announcements from adi, plus from what i know is happening on the ground at the well sites. i think operationally there is a lot of news that can easily be announced...  dont expect the garbage some other small caps have been announcing on to be replicated by adi. when you have a lawyer or a banker or accountant running a company, you can get some very hyped up garbage announcements... just the facts will be announced by adi..


adi and the jvp announced that in november 09 there would be ops happen on these wells, and prior they would be prepped..

and its very evident that the 3 wells are all being prepared for a frac. it would be impossible for them to set up a frac without me knowing about it also, the landowners there are very much known to me and also contribute on this site.

imho all small cap explorers get a frenzy of buying prior to test of a well. 
adi has always had that in the past, and i think there is no doubt that the 3 wells are about to be stimulated, and in this instance the same pattern of buying would happen on the adi share again in all likelihood.. 

one week left in october, imho further updates on ops could easily happen in the near term. i think some wells may be very much ready far quicker than expected..

all imho and dyor.. and never buy on the postings in a forum.. (check the forum rules on that issue)


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> things are getting interesting
> 
> This little map shows various operators and where they are active.
> 
> Firstly, the conoco phillips acreages extend from mcmullen/liveoak county line to mid dewitt county and perhps a little further.. in there are operators like TCEI/Hilcorp (with ADI in partnership) and Murphy, Weber, and a few other smaller operators.. Pioneer also has acreages in the belt
> 
> Conoco just put in a permit last week for the Plomero ranch on the western fringe or the bookend with petrohawks acreages in mcmullen and lasalle
> 
> The far eastern well. Hooks did flow pretty good, they tested it a few months back.. its all sugarkane to there (chalks and eagleford) and our jvp and pioneer have talked about the chalks and eagleford being active in karnes/ live oak and dewitt..
> 
> south of the conoco acreages is the pioneer acreages, they are drilling a eagelford well right now in live oak just a mile or so south of the conoco plomero ranch well.
> 
> EOG is a newcomer, in the last 3 months they have been drilling like all stink.. they have yet to really let their shareholders know of what the heck they are doing in the counties, as they are still very active in leasing right now as we speak.. i hear as many as 40 landmen are involved for them atm
> 
> in karnes they drilled 5 eagleford wells and have opened up one at least.. in gonzales they have the same 3 rigs going full tilt on 3 eagleford wells there right now today.. they have permits in place for 3 wells just north of the ADI kowalik well in karnes county and in atascosa north of the conoco phillips plomero another cluster, and also a cluster in mc mullen further east
> 
> sheepishly in lasalle, el paso is quietly at work on an eagleford well. been keeping a close watch on it as it about to be fraced.. the well is locked down with security and no one is prepared to talk about it atm..
> 
> petrohawk as we all know in the east have been making huge noises about their discovery and their progress is very much advanced..
> 
> what i am hearing is that many operators are all designing varied frac designs, and some are utilising very advanced frac methods (ala conoco and the cobra frac)
> 
> in the adi acreages a rig sits over kowalik atm, and the weston well is being prepared for a frac, kennedy is also being prepared
> 
> Ihere is a the massive well in kenedy township is also completed, and rumor is that the well was an eagleford well.. i hear another near by it is also on the go and possibly eagleford also..
> 
> the conocophillips bordovsky well just east of ADI's acreages is also ready for production, and has been flaring massive flares a few night back on dual flare towers. the flares were seen from runge, kenedy and karnes city
> 
> each day i see more and more evidence that the rock adi sit on is producing north south east and west in the eagleford and chalks..
> 
> looking forward to the very near future (only days away imho) when adi announce what well is fraccing first and where things are at..
> 
> all imho and dyor




EOG is really getting after it in the trend.  One more new area of activity for them is north of Hawkville Field in LaSalle County.  EOG has permitted the #1 and #2H Hoff Ranch wells (42-283-32224 & 42-283-32225)


----------



## Miner

adobee said:


> *looking forward to the very near future (only days away imho) when adi announce what well is fraccing first and where things are at..*
> 
> 
> How are you deriviing this opinion ??? If this is the case I will start buying more today ... Cant wait for update on this one ..



Did you buy ultimately today ? How is your feeling after you bought. Sorry just extending the sentence for 100 characters


----------



## adobee

Miner said:


> Did you buy ultimately today ? How is your feeling after you bought. Sorry just extending the sentence for 100 characters




Yes bought more.. had a profit i had left in from 6c to run which had good returns doubled the size of this parcel.. have an average price of 15.2c ..
 would like to see more news out otherwise I too think we could dwindle back to 7/8c...     Think a serious re rating of this stock is required


----------



## jestex12

Article as it appeared in Rigzone today 10/26/09:


Pioneer Pleased with Eagle Ford Shale Well's Initial Rate
Pioneer Natural Resources Co.|Monday, October 26, 2009 

Pioneer Natural Resources has announced a significant discovery in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Sinor #5 well, which is located in Live Oak County, Texas, flowed at an initial rate of approximately 11.3 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (approximately 8.3 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and 500 barrels of condensate per day) on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. The liquids-rich gas contains 1,200 British thermal units per cubic foot. The well was drilled to a true vertical depth of approximately 13,000 feet and completed in a 2,600-foot lateral section with a nine-stage fracture stimulation (frac). The well is currently producing to sales.

Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated, "The initial results of the Sinor #5 discovery are very encouraging, especially considering the significant volume of higher-valued condensate and natural gas liquids. This discovery, coupled with the Eagle Ford Shale wells recently completed by others, reinforces our expectation that this shale play will be very prolific. Our South Texas team has extensive experience drilling horizontal wells in the Edwards formation, which lies directly below the Eagle Ford formation. When combined with our greater than 2,000 square miles of 3-D seismic data, logs from more than 150 operated wells, proprietary core samples and existing infrastructure, we are confident in our ability to unlock the significant resource potential contained within our 310,000 gross acres in the play."

The Sinor #5 well is the first of a five-well program initiated by Pioneer in August to assess the resource potential across the Company's Eagle Ford acreage. Pioneer now plans to expand the five-well program by continuously operating one rig in the play through 2010 and will evaluate a further expansion as additional drilling results become known. The Company has spud its second well and expects to test the benefits of longer laterals and additional frac stages going forward.


----------



## Agentm

Pioneer Natural Resources Drills Successful Eagle Ford Shale Well

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 26, 2009-- Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSEXD) today announced a significant discovery in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Sinor #5 well, which is located in Live Oak County, Texas, flowed at an initial rate of approximately 11.3 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (approximately 8.3 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and 500 barrels of condensate per day) on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. The liquids-rich gas contains 1,200 British thermal units per cubic foot. The well was drilled to a true vertical depth of approximately 13,000 feet and completed in a 2,600-foot lateral section with a nine-stage fracture stimulation (frac). The well is currently producing to sales.
Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated, “The initial results of the Sinor #5 discovery are very encouraging, especially considering the significant volume of higher-valued condensate and natural gas liquids. This discovery, coupled with the Eagle Ford Shale wells recently completed by others, reinforces our expectation that this shale play will be very prolific. Our South Texas team has extensive experience drilling horizontal wells in the Edwards formation, which lies directly below the Eagle Ford formation. When combined with our greater than 2,000 square miles of 3-D seismic data, logs from more than 150 operated wells, proprietary core samples and existing infrastructure, we are confident in our ability to unlock the significant resource potential contained within our 310,000 gross acres in the play.”

The Sinor #5 well is the first of a five-well program initiated by Pioneer in August to assess the resource potential across the Company’s Eagle Ford acreage. Pioneer now plans to expand the five-well program by continuously operating one rig in the play through 2010 and will evaluate a further expansion as additional drilling results become known. The Company has spud its second well and expects to test the benefits of longer laterals and additional frac stages going forward.
Pioneer is a large independent oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Dallas, with operations in the United States, South Africa and Tunisia. For more information, visit Pioneer’s website at www.pxd.com.
Source: Pioneer Natural Resources Company

its an interesting result imho



2600 feet long 

8.3 mcfpd and 500 bopd on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure



and the next well the ROBERT CRAWLEY GAS UNIT, which is drilling atm, has a permit for it to be 5425 feet long

what are your thoughts bubba or fscmark?

pioneer are confident they can extract the resource


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> Yes bought more.. had a profit i had left in from 6c to run which had good returns doubled the size of this parcel.. have an average price of 15.2c ..
> would like to see more news out otherwise I too think we could dwindle back to 7/8c...     Think a serious re rating of this stock is required




I think you could be right Adobee. Started to dwindle back last week & without anything positive coming out it just may go back to where it was. Pity it doesn't have the same interest as BCC.


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> Pioneer Natural Resources Drills Successful Eagle Ford Shale Well
> 
> DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 26, 2009-- Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSEXD) today announced a significant discovery in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Sinor #5 well, which is located in Live Oak County, Texas, flowed at an initial rate of approximately 11.3 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (approximately 8.3 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and 500 barrels of condensate per day) on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. The liquids-rich gas contains 1,200 British thermal units per cubic foot. The well was drilled to a true vertical depth of approximately 13,000 feet and completed in a 2,600-foot lateral section with a nine-stage fracture stimulation (frac). The well is currently producing to sales.
> Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated, “The initial results of the Sinor #5 discovery are very encouraging, especially considering the significant volume of higher-valued condensate and natural gas liquids. This discovery, coupled with the Eagle Ford Shale wells recently completed by others, reinforces our expectation that this shale play will be very prolific. Our South Texas team has extensive experience drilling horizontal wells in the Edwards formation, which lies directly below the Eagle Ford formation. When combined with our greater than 2,000 square miles of 3-D seismic data, logs from more than 150 operated wells, proprietary core samples and existing infrastructure, we are confident in our ability to unlock the significant resource potential contained within our 310,000 gross acres in the play.”
> 
> The Sinor #5 well is the first of a five-well program initiated by Pioneer in August to assess the resource potential across the Company’s Eagle Ford acreage. Pioneer now plans to expand the five-well program by continuously operating one rig in the play through 2010 and will evaluate a further expansion as additional drilling results become known. The Company has spud its second well and expects to test the benefits of longer laterals and additional frac stages going forward.
> Pioneer is a large independent oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Dallas, with operations in the United States, South Africa and Tunisia. For more information, visit Pioneer’s website at www.pxd.com.
> Source: Pioneer Natural Resources Company
> 
> its an interesting result imho
> 
> 
> 
> 2600 feet long
> 
> 8.3 mcfpd and 500 bopd on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure
> 
> 
> 
> and the next well the ROBERT CRAWLEY GAS UNIT, which is drilling atm, has a permit for it to be 5425 feet long
> 
> what are your thoughts bubba or fscmark?
> 
> pioneer are confident they can extract the resource





Hi Agentm

Could you please advise what is the relationship between Pioneer Resources and ADI?
If both of them being same region then TXN (please refer to TXN thread posted by Seaspirite) is facing some difficulty.

So from risk management perspective should we see both the stories?
Also ADI is showing some sliding down trend contrary to expected better result.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> Pioneer Natural Resources Drills Successful Eagle Ford Shale Well
> 
> DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 26, 2009-- Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSEXD) today announced a significant discovery in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Sinor #5 well, which is located in Live Oak County, Texas, flowed at an initial rate of approximately 11.3 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day (approximately 8.3 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and 500 barrels of condensate per day) on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. The liquids-rich gas contains 1,200 British thermal units per cubic foot. The well was drilled to a true vertical depth of approximately 13,000 feet and completed in a 2,600-foot lateral section with a nine-stage fracture stimulation (frac). The well is currently producing to sales.
> Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated, “The initial results of the Sinor #5 discovery are very encouraging, especially considering the significant volume of higher-valued condensate and natural gas liquids. This discovery, coupled with the Eagle Ford Shale wells recently completed by others, reinforces our expectation that this shale play will be very prolific. Our South Texas team has extensive experience drilling horizontal wells in the Edwards formation, which lies directly below the Eagle Ford formation. When combined with our greater than 2,000 square miles of 3-D seismic data, logs from more than 150 operated wells, proprietary core samples and existing infrastructure, we are confident in our ability to unlock the significant resource potential contained within our 310,000 gross acres in the play.”
> 
> The Sinor #5 well is the first of a five-well program initiated by Pioneer in August to assess the resource potential across the Company’s Eagle Ford acreage. Pioneer now plans to expand the five-well program by continuously operating one rig in the play through 2010 and will evaluate a further expansion as additional drilling results become known. The Company has spud its second well and expects to test the benefits of longer laterals and additional frac stages going forward.
> Pioneer is a large independent oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Dallas, with operations in the United States, South Africa and Tunisia. For more information, visit Pioneer’s website at www.pxd.com.
> Source: Pioneer Natural Resources Company
> 
> its an interesting result imho
> 
> 
> 
> 2600 feet long
> 
> 8.3 mcfpd and 500 bopd on a 22/64 inch choke with 4,550 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure
> 
> 
> 
> and the next well the ROBERT CRAWLEY GAS UNIT, which is drilling atm, has a permit for it to be 5425 feet long
> 
> what are your thoughts bubba or fscmark?
> 
> pioneer are confident they can extract the resource




Agentm,

I would say the test on the Sinor well is encouraging in that a high rate of production was achieved with a relatively short lateral (2600') and a nine stage frac.  A longer lateral in the Robert Crawley GU with more frac stages should be significantly better.  This is important for adi because their acreage position is on trend.


----------



## Agentm

bubba

we got our answers on bordovsky.. which was still flaring the last few days on dual towers

conocophillips released their pr on the last quarter and did a conference call

jim puts the eagleford in the highlights and mentions it specifically in the press release as exploration success


ConocoPhillips Reports Third-Quarter Earnings of $1.5 Billion or $1.00 Per Share
Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:30am EDT


http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20091028005698/en

Year-to-date E&P production up more than 5 percent

HOUSTON--(Business Wire)--
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP):

Highlights

* Third-quarter earnings of $1.5 billion, or $1.00 per share, a decrease of 71 percent, compared with the same period in 2008

* E&P production up more than 5 percent year to date, with international crude oil projects adding approximately 130,000 BOE per day

* Ramp up of SAGD oil sands projects with quarterly production of more than 50,000 BBLs per day and approval to expand the Christina Lake development

** Exploration success with the Tiber discovery and Eagle Ford shale play*

* San Francisco hydrocracker commissioned in late September

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jim Mulva commented, "We operated very well during the third quarter, with E&P production and R&M refinery utilization rates higher than a year ago. Through September year to date, our E&P production has increased nearly 100,000 BOE per day, or more than 5 percent, compared with the same period in 2008."

Year-to-date production in Exploration and Production (E&P) was 1.86 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, compared with 1.76 million BOE per day in the same period of 2008. The increase was mainly due to new production from major project developments in the United Kingdom, Russia, China, Canada, Vietnam and Norway. Production also increased due to higher operating efficiency and lower production sharing and royalty volumes, partially offset by base field decline and planned downtime.

For the quarter, total production, including the company`s share of LUKOIL, was 2.2 million BOE per day and worldwide refining crude oil capacity utilization rate was 90 percent. Third-quarter production was impacted by the partial shut-in of the Ekofisk field in Norway due to the previously communicated platform incident. Ekofisk resumed full operations in mid-September.

Mulva added, "Although we operated well, we were adversely impacted by low North American natural gas prices and worldwide refining margins, which led us to curtail approximately 300 MMCFD of natural gas production starting in late August and reduce refinery runs. During the quarter, R&M returned to positive earnings, and both R&M and Chemicals continue to benefit from low utility costs.
In addition, for the third consecutive quarter, our operating costs were down compared with 2008, and our full-year cost reduction target of $1.4 billion has been achieved.

"Our refocused exploration program is delivering strong results so far this year. During the third quarter, the BP-operated Tiber discovery was announced. 
This is our second discovery in the Lower Tertiary play in the Gulf of Mexico this year, and we are currently drilling the Rickenbacker prospect. *In the Eagle Ford shale play, we have seen encouraging drilling results and are pleased with our large acreage position*. Off the northwest coast of Australia, although the Kontiki well, which tested a separate structure in the Browse Basin, was unsuccessful, the basin remains promising and we are continuing with appraisal of our Poseidon discovery. Finally, during the quarter we executed new agreements for exploration opportunities in Indonesia, coalbed methane in China,
and shale gas in Poland." 




the Q&A section of the call is on this page



http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/investor/presentations_ccalls/Pages/index.aspx


go in 21 minutes,  (saves you some time)

discusses farming out, but yet to have a good offer..

one rig atm

also will ramp up next year

he talks about  bordovsky and the ip flow rates

*4 mmcfpd and 1500 bopd was given*

375 bopd per 1 mmcfpd is the highest so far interms of condensate levels


go to 26 minutes in they talk about the eagleford further. a bit of history.. how promising it is.. they said the majority is term leasehold  and they said they have to ramp up there drilling...

cheers


----------



## tonudiki

It's pleasing to hear the continuing stream of good news/drill results coming out of the Eagleford from other companies.

Our turn will come soon...

  In the meantime, has anyone any idea why ADI has not yet received it's cash from the sale of its 8.5% working interest in Yemen block 7?  It's 8 months since the deal was done and it seems a very long time to get the final payments from Mitsui...or am I being unduly impatient?


----------



## Agentm

tonudiki said:


> It's pleasing to hear the continuing stream of good news/drill results coming out of the Eagleford from other companies.
> 
> Our turn will come soon...
> 
> In the meantime, has anyone any idea why ADI has not yet received it's cash from the sale of its 8.5% working interest in Yemen block 7?  It's 8 months since the deal was done and it seems a very long time to get the final payments from Mitsui...or am I being unduly impatient?




ton

last i heard they were same as b4.. waiting on one last process. 

adi has no liability to the yemen block in terms of capital, mitsui will cover it i understand.  adi cant access the cash until yemen sign off and mitsui authorises its release

just a small update on how close the regional eagleford is going

adi has been ignored in terms of its potential and the share has gone down some 33% this week.. i intend adding more as the sell off brings the sp down further.. 

conoco, petrohawk, eog, pioneer are all getting the eagleford, ADI have it flowing in kennedy and there is nil given for it atm.. waiting for some great buying opportunities in the coming days as the world markets correct..


----------



## jancha

Hi Agentm
All sounds good for ADI but what makes you think the market will correct in the next few days? Could we be finally having the correction that a lot people have been expecting? If so there would be better buying opportunies later.


----------



## Agentm

yeah i actually believed the markets would correct jancha. 

i also chose adi for the stock tipping comp this month, my view is that any success in weston may cause a rerating of the share prices on all jvp partners. 

the quarterly was pretty positive imho some very interesting days ahead, within a week or so..

HIGHLIGHTS

Adelphi has successfully farmed out the Sugarloaf AMI and will be substantially freecarried through three stimulations of existing horizontal wells and three new completed and tied-in horizontal wells in return for farming out up to half of Adelphi’s 20% interest.

*Preparatory work on the stimulations of existing horizontal wells has commenced at Weston – 1H, Kowalik – 1H and Kennedy – 1H. The first stimulation is expected to commence in November 2009 and planning has commenced for the 2010 drilling program.*

High levels of drilling activity and leasing of land continue on trend to the Sugarloaf AMI. This activity is primarily focused on the Eagle Ford Shale which is evolving into a premier shale play in the USA – in part because of its exceptionally high liquids yield.

During the quarter the majority of the funds from the Block 7 sale were received from Mitsui, with final settlement of this transaction expected to occur shortly pending finalisation of a number of administrative matters relating to the sale.

Yemen Block 74 2D or 3D seismic will be acquired early in 2010. A new prospective trend has been identified adjacent to mature source rock and will be the focus of the new seismic. Drilling is expected to commence in late 2010.

*Adelphi’s current cash position is $5.5 million* following receipt of Block 7 sales proceeds.


Well Horizontal Length 
Status 
Forward Plan

Kennedy -1H 3,800 ft 

Currently producing from a lightly stimulated 600 ft interval at the toe of the
well.

Fracture stimulate the entire 3,800 ft lateral with up to 14 stages.


Kowalik – 1H 4,600 ft 

Until early October was producing unstimulated from uncemented slotted liner.

Acid stimulation or large single stage fracture stimulation or both.

Weston -1H 3,000 ft 

Liner cemented in place. 

Fracture stimulate the entire 3,800 ft lateral with up to 14 stages.



later on a bit of regional info was released

•* The rocks comprising the Eagle Ford shale, and where present the Austin Chalk, are gas and condensate saturated across a wide area. The resource size is therefore very large.*

• Completed well costs are in the range US$5 – 8 million per well.

•* Multi-stage fracs (10 – 20 individual fracs) applied over >3,000’ of horizontal hole appear to yield the best initial rates and overall recoveries*

•* Hydrocarbon recovery per well is typically in the range of 5 – 6 BCFe but can be significantly more in geological sweet spots or when liquid yields are high. ConocoPhillips recently announced that one of its Eagle Ford (Sugarkane) wells located ~30km northeast of the Sugarloaf AMI tested at 4 MMCFGPD and 1,500 BOPD – an excellent initial rate which further confirms productivity and the high  liquids yields in the area.*

• There is intense competition for land with both major and mid-cap companies seeking liquids rich resource plays such as the Eagle Ford, with long-term stable cash-flow.


----------



## Agentm

great post agent m..

good research


i noticed this article on the role technology plays in shale development  and its a nice read, it fits with what adi has been saying in its quarterly re the costs

a lot of people of course dont believe the shale play has any potential, and regardless of its maturity,  its becoming increasingly hard to dispute some of the outstanding results that technology is delivering in the mature oil play in the karnes trough, with the likes of EOG and dan hughes, then there is  the less mature plays of condensate/ oil that conoco and TCEI and ADI are following and the more mature dry gas plays like pioneer have tapped into like the sinor ranch which is more southerly on the trend.

i am remaining optimistic at this point that the upcoming efforts on the wells by the jvp may indeed release the potential there in...  

plenty still clambering for the exit..


----------



## Agentm

interesting jvp in the eagleford..


*Swift Energy Company and Petrohawk Energy Corporation Announce Joint Venture to Develop Eagle Ford Shale*

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 2, 2009-- Swift Energy Company (NYSE: SFY) (“Swift Energy”) and Petrohawk Energy Corporation (NYSE: HK) (“Petrohawk”) *have executed a definitive agreement to jointly develop and operate an approximate 26,000 acre portion of Swift Energy’s Eagle Ford Shale acreage in McMullen County, Texas.*

*Swift Energy received approximately $26 million in cash consideration upon closing of the agreement. Petrohawk will also fund approximately $13 million of capital expenditures on Swift Energy’s behalf within the first twelve months of the joint venture.* If any portion of this amount is not expended during the first twelve months, it will be paid to Swift Energy as cash consideration.

Swift Energy retains a 50% interest in the joint venture that calls for joint development of this approximate 26,000 acre prospect area located in Swift Energy’s AWP field and covers leasehold interests beneath the Olmos formation (including the Eagle Ford Shale formation) extending to the base of the Pearsall formation. Petrohawk will serve as operator during the drilling and completion phase of the joint development, and Swift Energy will operate the wells drilled once they have entered the production phase, subject to terms of the agreement. The appraisal drilling program covered by the agreement will begin before the end of 2009 with an acceleration of activity anticipated in 2010.

Terry Swift, CEO of Swift Energy, remarked, “We have found an excellent partner to jointly develop with us a portion of our highly prospective Eagle Ford shale acreage. Petrohawk is one of the leaders in developing natural gas from shale formations responsibly, efficiently and cost effectively. Their technical and commercial expertise has already produced strong operational results in the Eagle Ford Shale, making Petrohawk an excellent choice as a partner for this project. Both organizations are committed to aggressively pursuing a strategy that will maximize production and reserves growth. This transaction is another step forward in Swift Energy’s plan to build operational momentum and strengthen its balance sheet entering 2010. We look forward to a long and fruitful relationship with Petrohawk.”

“We are very pleased to have the opportunity to develop this very prospective area of the Eagle Ford Shale," said Floyd C. Wilson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Petrohawk. “Swift Energy’s position, geologically speaking, is in what we believe to be an ideal depositional location and contiguous to our rapidly growing program in Hawkville field. We will waste no time in bringing the experience derived from our established Eagle Ford drilling program, as well as our access to processing and transportation in the area, to this new acreage for the mutual benefit of our two companies.”

Swift Energy Company, founded in 1979 and headquartered in Houston, engages in developing, exploring, acquiring and operating oil and gas properties, with a focus on oil and natural gas reserves onshore in Louisiana and Texas and in the inland waters of Louisiana.

Petrohawk Energy Corporation is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, production, exploration and development of natural gas and oil with properties concentrated in North Louisiana, Arkansas, East Texas, South Texas, and Oklahoma.


----------



## Agentm

just for clarity.. i noticed comment about me on HC.. am in the cooler on hc for posting a three letter abbreviation wtf.. i apologised and asked for reconsideration but its not replied to. you can write lmfao and plenty of other abbreviations, the wtf one was not personal, just in a sentence... pity as theres some good news flowing on the eagleford the moment


back on topic.. st mary announced its flow rates on the eagleford also last night

they are noticing regions of dry gas and further looking at a region that will yield more condensate

ST. MARY PROVIDES OPERATIONAL UPDATE; 
UPDATES PERFORMANCE GUIDANCE FOR 2009

•*	Strong Eagle Ford wells result in additional operated rig in fourth quarter
*
•	Positive developments in East Texas Haynesville shale position

•	Exploratory Marcellus shale wells drilled and completed; sales line in process of being completed


DENVER, November 2, 2009 – St. Mary Land & Exploration Company (NYSE: SM) today provides an update on the Company’s operational activity, capital investment levels for 2009, and financial guidance for 2009.  Additionally, a new presentation for this operational update and third quarter 2009 earnings has been posted on the home page of the Company’s website at stmaryland.com.  This presentation will be referenced in the conference call scheduled for 8:00 a.m. Mountain time (10:00 a.m. Eastern time) on November 3, 2009.  


MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY

Tony Best, CEO and President, remarked, *“The past quarter has been an important period for the company.  I am very excited about the well results in the Eagle Ford shale that we are announcing today *and the recent results in our East Texas Haynesville program are encouraging.  We are continuing to make great strides in expanding our inventory and are quickly moving the company into a position to be able to organically grow production and proved reserves every year.  As we begin planning for 2010, we do so with a solid balance sheet and a greatly improved portfolio of projects that we can exploit to create value for our shareholders.”


OPERATIONS UPDATE

Eagle Ford shale – Since its last update, St. Mary has drilled and completed an additional 3 horizontal wells on its 100% working interest acreage in South Texas with sufficient production history to provide a meaningful update.

•	The Galvan Ranch 1H (SM 100% WI) was spud in early June and was drilled to a vertical depth of approximately 8,500 feet.  *The well had an effective lateral of 5,005 feet and used a 17 stage completion.  The well had a maximum seven day sales average of 8.0 MMCFED*.  *This well is the farthest south of any of the wells drilled to date and has 1,000 BTU/SCF gas with essentially no condensate yield.*
•	The Briscoe Apache Ranch 1H (SM 100% WI) spud in mid-July, and was drilled to a vertical depth of approximately 7,900 feet.  *The well had an effective lateral length of roughly 4,000 feet and used a 14 stage completion.  The well had a maximum seven day sales average of 7.1 MMCFED.*  The Apache Ranch well was drilled south of our first well in this program, the Briscoe G 1H, and north of the second well in this program, the Galvan Ranch 1H.  *Consistent with the Company’s expectation, the well has a richer stream of gas at approximately 1,200 BTU/SCF.*
•	The Galvan Ranch 4H (SM 100% WI) spud in late August and was drilled to a vertical depth of roughly 9,100 feet.  *The well had an effective lateral length of 5,000 feet and used a fifteen stage completion.*  The well’s sales rate has been constrained by temporary pipeline limitations.  Currently the well is flowing at a rate of 7.0 MMCFED at a flowing wellhead pressure of 3,600 psi.  *Similar to the Galvan Ranch 1H well, the production from this well is very dry with little condensate*.
St. Mary’s first well in this program, the Briscoe G 1H (SM 100% WI), was initially reported to have an average sales rate over its initial seven day flow period of 5.6 MMCFED.  Using the same methodology for calculating average production rates as the wells above, the maximum seven day sales average for this well was 6.4 MMCFED. 
*The well design being used by the Company on its 100% acreage has evolved to one that utilizes a longer lateral and more completion stages.  Completed well costs are now estimated to be between $4.5 to $5.5 million per well, depending on well depth.*
St. Mary will be completing the Briscoe G 2H (SM 100% WI) and the Briscoe B 1H (SM 100% WI) in the coming weeks.  *The Company will be adding a second drilling rig in the play during November*.  The seventh and eighth wells in the program, the Galvan Ranch 7H and Briscoe G 3H (both SM 100% WI) will spud early this month. 
In the joint venture acreage north of the Company’s 100% working interest position, St. Mary took over from TXCO as the drilling operator in the JV earlier this year and drilled and completed the remaining three earn-in wells in Phase II of the joint venture with Anadarko Petroleum Corporation.  Consistent with the Company’s prior statements, *it is clear from the initial flowback results from these wells that this portion of the play will have high condensate yields*.  Anadarko is installing additional sales infrastructure to facilitate further testing.  With Phase II complete, Anadarko will take over full operatorship of the JV acreage and St. Mary plans on participating in Phase III and the subsequent development of this acreage.

St. Mary has leased or optioned 225,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford shale, with roughly 159,000 net acres of operated, high working interest acreage and approximately 66,000 net acres in the joint venture.


----------



## adobee

they need to get some market sensitive announcements out otherwise nobody is going to take any notice of this one or give any re rating ..


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> they need to get some market sensitive announcements out otherwise nobody is going to take any notice of this one or give any re rating ..




would expect the next news once the weston well commences its frac operations

imho a week or so from now

cant think of any other market sensitive news other than the sale of the second yemen block thats in negotiations

cash is in for the first block.  yet market caps and sp on the jvp partners are all over the shop, 

adi 

market cap $19 mill, ($5 mill cash)

EKA

market cap is $9.9 mill,  (limited cash reserves)

adi has no value given for the cash nor for the second yemen block


----------



## blues

Petrohawk buying more Eagleford acreage for $26 million.

http://www.reuters.com/article/OILPRD/idUSBNG51055420091102


----------



## Agentm

blues said:


> Petrohawk buying more Eagleford acreage for $26 million.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/OILPRD/idUSBNG51055420091102




hey blues

i posted some info on that a few days ago

its great to see them taking on jvp partners. would have loved to have seen them with tcei on their acreages, i hear COP like petrohawk a lot also..


----------



## Agentm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/170934-swift-energy-co-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Finally, as of yesterday, we entered in to a join venture agreement in South Texas to exploit and develop the Eagle Ford shale. This particular transaction is very strategic for us. We’ve taken a portion of our Eagle Ford shale position in the AWP area, and teamed up with Petrohawk, a well respected shale resource player to develop jointly 26,000 acres. We will provide the important details of this arrangement later in the call.

.........

*During the third quarter, we advanced preparations to drill horizontally in the Eagle Ford shale* for the fourth quarter, and both in our newly announced joint venture as well as the undeveloped acreage outside of the venture, we plan to drill additional wells. *The exceptional value this play brings cannot be ignored*. We’ve analyzed the locations and the results of wells that have been by others in the industry, and we believe our acreage remains highly prospective, particularly in the AWP area and certain other areas of South Texas where we have sizable acreage positions.

We will be developing this play, beginning with wells drilling in the fourth quarter of this year and into 2010. The most turbulent portion of this particular economic downturn appears to be behind us. However, we appreciate how quickly the environment can change. We have managed our business prudently and we’ll be cautious as we increase activity levels in the fourth quarter of 2009 and into 2010.

..............


Finally, we announced yesterday a joint venture agreement with Petrohawk to develop an approximate 26,000 acre portion of our Eagle Ford shale acreage in McMullen County, Texas, in and around the AWP field. At least one well will be drilled to test the Eagle Ford shale horizon in this 26,000 acre prospect during 2009. We currently expect our rig to remain active in the area during 2010.

The company will retain a 50% interest in the approximate 26,000 acre prospect area, which covers leasehold interest, beneath the Olmos formation and inclusive of the Eagle Ford shale formation, extending to the base of the Pearsall formation.

Swift Energy received approximately $26 million in cash consideration upon closing of this agreement. Petrohawk will also fund approximately 13 million of capital expenditures on Swift’s behalf within the first 12 months of the joint venture.

Presently, Swift Energy expects to utilize this entire 13 million amounts to cover drilling and completion cost of horizontal wells targeting the Eagle Ford shale in the joint venture area. If the full amount is not utilized during the first 12 months of this agreement, the difference will be paid to Swift as a cash consideration.

Petrohawk will serve as an operator during the drilling and completion phase of the join development, and Swift will operate the wells drilled once they’ve entered the production phase, subject of course to the terms of the agreement.

The company is also planning to spud a horizontal well to test the Eagle Ford shale on its undeveloped acreage position outside of the joint venture. As with all of our operations, we will provide results from drilling activity in this joint venture during our regularly scheduled quarterly conference calls or in the event that any results are material in nature.


........................

We recently entered into a joint venture agreement to accelerate the development of a portion of our AWP acreage believed be prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale.

We plan to spud a horizontal Eagle Ford Shale well within this joint venture during the fourth quarter. We will also begin testing the Eagle Ford Shale on our acreage outside of this joint venture area this year. A secondary equity stock offering and closing of our South Texas joint venture have allowed us to significantly improve our balance sheet and reduce our borrowings on our credit facility.


......................

Leo Mariani - RBC

Curious here as to while you got the decision to go out and JV 26,000 acres, you had talked about having a bigger position, roughly 90,000 acres that are prospective, just curious as to how you got the decision to get out there and just do a portion of this versus doing a bigger piece.

Terry Swift

Clearly, we do have a very significant acreage position in South Texas, both for the Olmos and prospectively as well as the Eagle Ford Shale. The Eagle Ford Shale is a homogeneous type of resource play, but even then there are sweet spots in this play and through the drilling programs that are going on now and will go on into the next year, folks are going to find some really nice places to drill out there and some areas that maybe aren’t as good as others. We decided that was strategically important for us to accelerate our drilling in this play and to go into the play with a partner that we thought would bring exceptional technical expertise to us as it had already had been a well respected shale player.

As to why, we ended up with just 26,000 acres, we do want to keep a bunch of it for ourselves. We felt that strategically this was the right type of deal, it worked well with out partner. We’ve got acreage in and around it, that’s a 100%. We got acreage in other parts of the play, that’s a 100% . We are looking forward to with Petrohawk on this 26,000 acres and teaming up with their technical expertise and expanding then expanding beyond this play area where we’ve done the deal.

Leo Mariani - RBC

Okay, are there any other sort of significant terms for JV like maximum or minimum wells that get drilled in a year and this 100% for the 50-50 JV where either of you has a right to propose a well?

Terry Swift

Yes, we each the right to propose a well. There is no minimum or maximum. We do have one obligation well that has to be drilled. We are in the planning mode to begin that well here within the next 30 to 60 days. Each party has a right to propose wells. We spend a lot of time working through the agreement terms on both sides and we think we’ve ended up with a very good agreement.

Leo Mariani - RBC

Any estimate in terms of ASPs for that first well out there and what it might cost you.

Terry Swift

*We going to hold back on some of that information until we actually get the first well spudded. *It should be clear that the first several wells in here, we are going to conduct some more science, get some core data that’s not present in the area because we want to optimize the results out here and Petrohawk has worked closely with us on the science side. We are in complete agreement that the first couple of wells will probably be a little more expensive than the most that subsequently come forward.

Bruce Vincent

*Clearly, initially we are going to drill a pilot hole, we are going to take cores, and we’re going to run a full suite of logs to understand the geology better. If you look at what Petrohawk is doing in the Hawkville field. The reason they are interested in our acreage is they believe and we believe too that the same trend runs wide underneath AWP. If you run the other side, if you look at the Pioneer well, we are right smack in the middle between the Pioneer well and what the Petrohawk has been doing. We would fully expect both, looking at Petrohawk’s experience and our experience at driving the cost down in the Olmos horizontal drilling, it should drive those cost down as you start doing repetitive drop drilling.*


..........


Unidentified Analyst

When you look out at your Eagle Ford program in 2010, can you kind of put a range as to how many wells you guys think you can drill either on your own or with the JV?

Terry Swift

We actually won’t come out with our complete budget and presentations until the February analyst meeting, and that’s where we go through all that in detail. However, we are clearly looking at that. Within the venture in AWP with Petrohawk, we do expect the rig to continue to run all year drilling Eagle Ford wells in that venture.

There maybe a slowdown initially between the first couple of wells in order to get some good data, and we will be spotting those wells across the acreage. It’s a big position, so we’ll have those first several wells be more like appraisal wells before we go in to what we hope to be a manufacturing mode. I think it’s reasonable to expect a rig to running there all year.

Additionally, I think I our other Eagle Ford positions, you’ll see us stepping around the play. As we’ve noted, several of the positions we think are extremely highly prospective, and then there is some other areas we are looking at drilling of others, and we may stay away from that and watch the results of others before we move in there. You could expect us to maybe have a rig running in the other parts of our acreage throughout all 2010.

Bruce Vincent

Yes, but we could easily be moving that rig back and forth between Olmos and Eagle Ford. You are not going to distinguish much between that. One of the real advantages of AWP is you are tied right into the market so you can get stuff on production immediately. Some areas have more gas marketing and distribution issues, and so you’ll need to both evaluate the acreage and understand the performance that you can get, and then deal with market access. Sometimes that takes a little so don’t want to drill a bunch of wells and keep them shut-in.

Unidentified Analyst

The right way to think about it though is, you guys should probably have at most one horizontal rig that you guys are operating in South Texas next year?

Terry Swift

We are likely to have one horizontal well drilling program that is on 100% Swift acreage, whether it is Olmos or Eagle Ford, other rig on the joint venture acreage.


----------



## Agentm

elpaso also spoke a few minutes ago about their recent well in the eagelford


http://ca.sys-con.com/node/1171296

--  $0.23 adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) versus $0.35 in 2008.
    A sharp increase in Pipeline Group earnings was more than offset by lower
    natural gas and oil prices.
--  2009 adjusted earnings per share guidance raised to $1.15 to $1.20.
--  Third quarter 2009 reported EPS of $0.08 per diluted share versus
    $0.58 in 2008. A sharp decline in natural gas prices in the company's
    Exploration and Production (E&P) business was the major reason for lower
    reported earnings.
--  Third quarter 2009 Pipeline Group earnings before interest expense and
    taxes (EBIT) rose 17 percent from the third quarter of 2008.
--  Third quarter production averaged 732 million cubic feet equivalent
    per day (MMcfe/d), including 71 MMcfe/d of Four Star volumes. Strong
    domestic results, particularly from Haynesville Shale activities, offset
    delays in Brazil's Camarupim project.
--  *The company announced that its first Eagle Ford shale well was
    successful and that it had increased its acreage position to 112,000 net
    acres.*


"I am very pleased with our third quarter financial results and the solid execution by our Pipeline and E&P businesses," said Doug Foshee, chairman, president, and chief executive officer of El Paso Corporation. "We placed the Piceance Lateral Expansion project in service during the quarter -- on time and on budget, while at the same time advancing other projects in our committed backlog as well as new growth opportunities. In E&P, we continued to generate excellent results from our Haynesville Shale program and have ramped up our activity level to five rigs. *Importantly, we are transferring our Haynesville expertise to the Eagle Ford Shale, where we are off to a great start. In summary, we are generating consistent results that will provide sustained value creation for our shareholders.*" 


*El Paso also announced that its first Eagle Ford shale well in La Salle County, Texas was recently drilled with a 4,000 foot horizontal lateral and completed with a 16-stage frac. The well is still cleaning up with volumes steadily increasing. The current flow rate is approximately 6.1 MMcfe/d with a flowing tubing pressure of 5,200 psi. The company has almost doubled its lease position to 112,000 net acres. El Paso will maintain a one-rig program as it progresses in this new play. *


----------



## Agentm

so swift and elpaso announced their well programs and intention

this from pioneer a few minutes ago

http://austin.dbusinessnews.com/viewnews.php?article=bwire/20091103006794r1.xml

Pioneer Natural Resources Reports Third Quarter 2009 Results

 Recent highlights include:

*Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated*, "Despite a substantial reduction in drilling activity for 2009, our high-quality assets delivered production growth of 7% during the first nine months compared to last year, and we continue to expect full-year production growth of at least 5% per share. We remain committed to a free cash flow model, with excess cash flow being used to reduce debt this year."

"Improving oil prices and our strong derivative positions support operating cash flow forecasts of approximately $1 billion in 2010 and $1.4 billion in 2011. As a result, we are aggressively ramping up our drilling program in the Spraberry field and will continue our successful oil development program in Alaska. *We have also expanded our Eagle Ford Shale drilling program where we hold 310,000 gross acres in one of the premier shale plays in the U.S. With this drilling program and the expiration of our 5 MBOEPD volumetric production payment obligation, we expect to once again generate quarterly production growth in 2010, while preserving our free cash flow model."* 


Operations Update

In South Texas, Pioneer's daily production for the first nine months of 2009 rose 4% to 76 MMCFPD versus the prior-year period benefiting from its strong 2008 Edwards Trend drilling program. *The Company also recently announced a significant discovery in the Eagle Ford Shale play where it holds 310,000 gross acres overlaying the Edwards Trend. The Sinor #5 well flowed at an initial rate of approximately 11.3 MMCFEPD of gas (approximately 8.3 MMCFPD of liquids-rich gas and 500 BPD of higher-valued condensate). The liquids-rich gas contains 1,200 British thermal units per cubic foot. Pioneer now plans to continuously operate one rig in the play through 2010 and test the benefits of longer laterals and additional frac stages. The Company is drilling its next well and will evaluate a further rig expansion as additional drilling results are known. Pioneer is also exploring a joint venture strategy to accelerate development of its extensive Eagle Ford acreage position*. 



all great statements from 3 fine companies, run by real genuine and well respected oilmen



take note of this if you think your investment in the eagleford is sound, one thing to really keep a close watch on is size of the play..

conoco, swift, pioneer and many others are looking to farm out

right now i see two small cap aussie participants in the eagleford with substantial acreages and one is actively expanding its acreages, and at the same time we see the monoliths of the industry in texas, all very capable of finding cash and managing some of their exploration positions.. all with eagleford exposure and some with extensive experience in the well designs, but they are all saying they want to farm it out..

just a word of caution, i think everyone knows what i am talking about.. but i think you should be very clear on what a small cap company in this play is capable of exploring and what costs it would be to them to expand into these plays.. it has to be an essential consideration as to whether that company is a true long term stayer and player or in for a short term red flag buy me out i will never make it otherwise strategy.. 

all imho and dyor


----------



## Agentm

would love to see an announcement like el paso put out be replicated in the sugarkane acreages

*El Paso also announced that its first Eagle Ford shale well in La Salle County, Texas was recently drilled with a 4,000 foot horizontal lateral and completed with a 16-stage frac. The well is still cleaning up with volumes steadily increasing. The current flow rate is approximately 6.1 MMcfe/d with a flowing tubing pressure of 5,200 psi. The company has almost doubled its lease position to 112,000 net acres. El Paso will maintain a one-rig program as it progresses in this new play. *

imagine an ADI well producing 6 mmcfpd on a well producing 1500 bopd in condensate, and then cleaning up with volumes increasing

elpaso have achieved some real excellence there

pioneer went from disaster in their first frac to a pretty successful second go at it in live oak

TCEI has done a mini frac in the eagleford in kennedy and i would say the designs floating around  at the moment would not look anything like that design from last year. things have improved remarkably

first cab off the rank will be the chalks well. Weston 1H


----------



## martyfar

just a word of caution, i think everyone knows what i am talking about.. but i think you should be very clear on what a small cap company in this play is capable of exploring and what costs it would be to them to expand into these plays.. it has to be an essential consideration as to whether that company is a true long term stayer and player or in for a short term red flag buy me out i will never make it otherwise strategy.. 


 Hiya Agent,

Thanks for your post.  Its certainly encouraging in recent times to see the Eagleford getting such positive commentary from sources "right across the board". 

May I seek your "opinion"  on whether or not  you see ADI in a financial position in the near future  (12mths or so) to develop its share of the Sugarloaf play ... I'm assuming all going well and we have the proceeds from a few flowing wells to play with

Also,  can you offer some insight into the kind of problems / dilemas the small players such as ADI, AUT, and EKA, may encounter as a result of "mixin it with the big boys" in the board game "Oil Monopoly"

many thanks


----------



## gerkin02

Agentm said:


> would love to see an announcement like el paso put out be replicated in the sugarkane acreages
> 
> *El Paso also announced that its first Eagle Ford shale well in La Salle County, Texas was recently drilled with a 4,000 foot horizontal lateral and completed with a 16-stage frac. The well is still cleaning up with volumes steadily increasing. The current flow rate is approximately 6.1 MMcfe/d with a flowing tubing pressure of 5,200 psi. The company has almost doubled its lease position to 112,000 net acres. El Paso will maintain a one-rig program as it progresses in this new play. *
> 
> imagine an ADI well producing 6 mmcfpd on a well producing 1500 bopd in condensate, and then cleaning up with volumes increasing
> 
> elpaso have achieved some real excellence there
> 
> pioneer went from disaster in their first frac to a pretty successful second go at it in live oak
> 
> TCEI has done a mini frac in the eagleford in kennedy and i would say the designs floating around  at the moment would not look anything like that design from last year. things have improved remarkably
> 
> first cab off the rank will be the chalks well. Weston 1H




Agentm,

Swift energy probably paid no more than $400 us an acre for the 26000 acres that it has entered into with petrohawk (12-18 months ago).

Now petrohawk has effectively paid $3000 us an acre to farm into this.

If you were swift would you be happy with the upside obtained in such a short time frame with still retaining a 50% interest.

As swift has a 90000 + acre position it probably has a reasonable amount of drilling to retain leases.

Other majors aquired land cheaply and it makes good business to farm out on good terms.

If adi was to use some of its cash to expand into the eagleford,how much additional land would it be able to aquire in todays market?

Great posts,lets keep everyone thinking.

Well done and all the best.


----------



## Agentm

martyfar said:


> just a word of caution, i think everyone knows what i am talking about.. but i think you should be very clear on what a small cap company in this play is capable of exploring and what costs it would be to them to expand into these plays.. it has to be an essential consideration as to whether that company is a true long term stayer and player or in for a short term red flag buy me out i will never make it otherwise strategy..
> 
> 
> Hiya Agent,
> 
> Thanks for your post.  Its certainly encouraging in recent times to see the Eagleford getting such positive commentary from sources "right across the board".
> 
> May I seek your "opinion"  on whether or not  you see ADI in a financial position in the near future  (12mths or so) to develop its share of the Sugarloaf play ... I'm assuming all going well and we have the proceeds from a few flowing wells to play with
> 
> Also,  can you offer some insight into the kind of problems / dilemas the small players such as ADI, AUT, and EKA, may encounter as a result of "mixin it with the big boys" in the board game "Oil Monopoly"
> 
> many thanks




*Adelphi’s strategy over the past year has by necessity
been defensive. We have been rigorous in preserving
capital and directing our efforts to retain equity in those
parts of our business most likely to generate revenue
and value in the near term.*
In practice, this has involved the sale of Yemen Blocks 7
and 74 and the farm-out of equity in the Sugarloaf AMI.
In addition, we withdrew from AC/P32 in the Timor Sea
and assigned our rights to the Indonesian Bengara South
Block to a third party following the default of our previous
farm-in partners for that asset.
*This rationalisation process is nearly complete, after
which we can concentrate on the Sugarloaf Project.
Once we see the results of the first farmin operations
there, we will be well placed to adopt the best
growth strategy.*








positive is one way to put it.. as someone pointed out to me, with petrohawk paying $3000 an acre for 50% partnership with swift to get some acreages close by in mcmullen, and with the knowledge the condensate is higher in our acreages, you would conclude that any success by TCEI/Hilcorp  must be considered favorably

how all partners and players in the region are financed for this is a question that should be more directed at the individual companies themselves. have they cash reserves, the capacity to develop acreages, funding is a primary consideration.

have all players come through and gained capital and put their companies in order?


what problem other players will have in their capacities to fund their incredible acreages is up to the individual to assess and price themselves. 

my view on adi is that despite offers made to expand i think they have held a conservative approach, and are still in the position to be able to expand into the acreages as a long term player and hold their own,   i dont think they have overextended and i am certain the ability to manage the sugarkane development commitments in the future are totally an achievable target.

having the cash in the bank, and more to come should  the second block sell, eliminates the concerns of massive dilutions in cap raising on adi

i recall alex a  while back at an agm saying the most probable way to get it done would be cap raising and debt finance in combination. but with capital in the bank i think the near  term looks ok.

imho the parcel that a company like adi or eka hold are manageable, but holding massive acreages like some others do is a different story imho


----------



## estseon

Moving forward, the cash generated from the production will first repay Hilcorp's outlay (so far as I can gather) and will then be split in the new WI ratio and will be available to fund future development of S/L.

ADI has a buffer of $5m+ and that should be viewed in terms of the number of wells that can be financed. At the new WI, and assuming $7m per well, just to put some numbers in, that represents 7 new wells after the fracture stimulation of the 3 drilled wells and 3 new wells.

Whether that will be sufficient to bridge the operations between commencement of new well 4 and full payout of Hilcorp (don't know whether payout will work on a well by well basis - it might) will depend on the payback period for the wells. To get some feel for that, say 1,500 bpd (ignore gas) at $30 retained (just to put a number in) gives approx $50k per day. So, payback using those figures plucked out of the air would be 140 days- so within 6 months. The first of the new wells won't be until 2010. It then depends on how many rigs are deployed. If they can move the drilling rig on every month, the first well should be producing by the time that the 3rd one is started and the existing wells should be producing cash for the JVPs to share by the time that the 3rd one is drilled.

So the 1st new well should be starting to fund new drilling (after paying out Hilcorp) by the time that the 9th is spudded, the 2nd by the time that the 10th is spudded and so on. But the 3 existing wells would have paid out the frac costs and might be financing 1 new well every 3 months.

So, put that in a spreadsheet and you can see that the buffer of $5m could be sufficient to bridge until the development of S/L is self-funding.

However, by the time that $$$ are ringing in the till from successful production, the SP is going to be very different from the current one and so raising additional capital (if required) will be far far less dilutive.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Petrohawk provided an update on the Eagle Ford Shale play in their 3rd Quarter Financial and Operating Results Press Release (11/4/09):

Eagle Ford Shale 

Petrohawk drilled ten operated wells and one non-operated well during the third quarter in Hawkville Field. Seven of the operated wells were completed with an average initial production rate of 6.7 Mmcf/d and 220 Bc/d, or 8.0 Mmcfe/d using a 6:1 ratio for condensate, or 10.0 Mmcfe/d using a 15:1 ratio. There are currently sixteen operated wells on production. The average initial rate of all sixteen wells is approximately 7.8 Mmcf/d and 143 Bc/d, or 8.7 Mmcfe/d or 10.0 Mmcfe/d depending on which ratio is used. Current gross operated production is approximately 55 Mmcf/d and 1,300 Bc/d, or 75 Mmcfe/d using a 15:1 conversion ratio. Net operated production is currently approximately 49 Mmcfe/d using a 15:1 conversion ratio. Twelve of the sixteen wells on production have at least 30 days of production with the average rate during the first 30 days being 7.1 Mmcfe/d using a 15:1 conversion ratio. 

Drilling operations in the Hawkville Field have continued to gain efficiencies with the average number of days from spud to total depth for the nine non-pilot holes drilled during the quarter being 19 days. This efficiency has resulted in an average spud to rig release cost of approximately $2.3 million, with current total drilling and completion costs averaging approximately $5.3 million. The Company currently has two operated rigs running and one non-operated rig working in the play. Petrohawk intends to focus drilling operations during the next quarter on the high condensate yield area of the field due to more restrictive hunting season restrictions in the dry gas window area and the Company's desire to take advantage of the current disparity between condensate and natural gas prices. 

In addition to the decrease in drilling days, Petrohawk is continuing to refine completion techniques used in the play. The first seven completions in Hawkville Field had an average lateral length of 3,736' with an average of 10.6 stages pumped across an average stage length of 350'. The last nine completions had an average lateral length of 4,356' with an average of 15.3 stages across an average stage length of 285'. In addition to the increased lateral length and associated increase in the number of stages and decreased stage length, the Company is increasing the sand concentration to 2.5-3.0#/gallon for each stage. These combined changes in the completion design appear to have resulted in better well performance that Petrohawk hopes will result in higher EUR's. Additionally, the Company will be extending the lateral length on its wells to approximately 6,000-6,500' when possible, a change that is also expected to translate into potentially better overall well performance.


----------



## Agentm

*Petrohawk*

*Twelve of the sixteen wells on production* have at least 30 days of production with the average rate during the first 30 days being *7.1 Mmcfe/d* using a 15:1 conversion ratio.

*Pioneer*

Initial rate of approximately *11.3 MMCFEPD* of gas (approximately 8.3 MMCFPD of liquids-rich gas and *500 BPD* of higher-valued condensate).


*Elpaso*

*6.1 MMcfe/d* with a flowing tubing pressure of 5,200 psi.


*St mary*


• The Galvan Ranch 1H (SM 100% WI) . The well had a maximum seven day sales average of *8.0 MMCFED*.
• The Briscoe Apache Ranch 1H (SM 100% WI). The well had a maximum seven day sales average of *7.1 MMCFED*.
• The Galvan Ranch 4H (SM 100% WI) . Currently the well is flowing at a rate of *7.0 MMCFED* at a flowing wellhead pressure of 3,600 psi.

St. Mary’s first well in this program, the Briscoe G 1H (SM 100% WI), was initially reported to have an average sales rate over its initial seven day flow period of *5.6 MMCFED*.
St. Mary will be completing the Briscoe G 2H (SM 100% WI) and the Briscoe B 1H (SM 100% WI) in the coming weeks. 


*Conocophillips
*

Sig Cornelius

*Sure. I'd be happy to. I referred to some successful results that we've had recently on our well, our last well, the BrodskyA7well. We had online for relatively short period of time but we are very encouraged it's got a flow rate of nearly four million cubic feet a day, but more importantly around 1500 barrels a day of condensate*. So that has been part of our strategy to focus on plays that have a very high these shale plays that have a very high liquid content, obviously very important on the economics.
We have a very substantial position there, close to 300,000 acres when you consider our interest in the Eagle Ford and the adjoining Austin Chalk play. You are correct. We have been entertaining some offers for potential farm out of our position, but we are not going to farm it out unless we see a compelling value proposition. So far we have not seen that so.


*4 mmcfpf  1500 bopd*



its an interesting observation that all wells in a very broad region, spread over many many counties, are delivering very commercial wells.

the greater majority are in the western part of the trend,  and *the highest well with condensate delivery is on trend in KARNES COUNTY  and EAST of ADI acreages, conocophillips bordovsky, 4mmcfpd 1500 bopd ip*


looking forward to the upcoming works on the ADI weston well, the first chalks well to be stimulated in a week or so.. mid november is very much a possibility

will be very interested in wells in the eagleford also in the sugarkane region including the adi kennedy well in the near term.

after a long long wait i am having trouble thinking of reasons to sell out of adi..

maybe soon groundhog days will be gone..


----------



## adobee

Agentm said:


> *Petrohawk*
> 
> looking forward to the upcoming works on the ADI weston well, the first chalks well to be stimulated in a week or so.. mid november is very much a possibility
> 
> will be very interested in wells in the eagleford also in the sugarkane region including the adi kennedy well in the near term.
> 
> after a long long wait i am having trouble thinking of reasons to sell out of adi..
> 
> maybe soon groundhog days will be gone..




they better do something soon.. i have to pay a deposit on a house in four weeks.. and am waiting  !!!!  if they do something i can then leave the profit in.. if they dont.. i will have to pull out .. and i know that if this happens an announcement will be the following day !!?!?!


----------



## Miner

adobee said:


> they better do something soon.. i have to pay a deposit on a house in four weeks.. and am waiting  !!!!  if they do something i can then leave the profit in.. if they dont.. i will have to pull out .. and i know that if this happens an announcement will be the following day !!?!?!






Agentm said:


> *Petrohawk*
> 
> 
> 
> [
> looking forward to the upcoming works on the ADI weston well, the first chalks well to be stimulated in a week or so.. mid november is very much a possibility
> 
> will be very interested in wells in the eagleford also in the sugarkane region including the adi kennedy well in the near term.
> 
> after a long long wait i am having trouble thinking of reasons to sell out of adi..
> 
> maybe soon groundhog days will be gone..




Dear Agentm and Adobee

I do follow ADI postings with great hope and interest.
But I am a bit frightened to see both your postings are suggesting  a SELL thought.

I hope the ADI reports should rather support us to buy more ADI

I am still holding and honestly hoping patience will bear its own fruit

Good luck to all ADI holders.


----------



## Agentm

the heavy selling down of adi in the past weeks from .18 to .12 was not me, i looked today and my levels are as high as they ever were.

i said i cant think of any reasons to sell.. far cry from saying the share is a sell as you put it.

adobee is looking for and exit in 4 weeks. i think by then some value may be given to adi.

if petrohawk have valued the eagleford acreages in the AWP field in mcmullen @$6000 an acre, (50% partnership paying $3000 an acre) then imho adi has about $27,000,000 acreage value for the 20% it owns of eagleford in the sugarkane. and i view the sugarkane as far more condensate rich than the petrohawk jvp acreages.. then the chalks must hold some value on top of that imho. adi has $5.5 mill more cash in the bank than before also.. so a $30+ mill company is a view i hold of adi just on acreage value and cash..

hilcorp only gets their % share of regions they actually develop, and hold nil % on anything not developed... they did not pay up front.

my view that adi is far more a share that can be very easily valued in the old benchmark of .30 like before..

all imho..


----------



## gerkin02

Agentm said:


> the heavy selling down of adi in the past weeks from .18 to .12 was not me, i looked today and my levels are as high as they ever were.
> 
> i said i cant think of any reasons to sell.. far cry from saying the share is a sell as you put it.
> 
> adobee is looking for and exit in 4 weeks. i think by then some value may be given to adi.
> 
> if petrohawk have valued the eagleford acreages in the AWP field in mcmullen @$6000 an acre, (50% partnership paying $3000 an acre) then imho adi has about $27,000,000 acreage value for the 20% it owns of eagleford in the sugarkane. and i view the sugarkane as far more condensate rich than the petrohawk jvp acreages.. then the chalks must hold some value on top of that imho. adi has $5.5 mill more cash in the bank than before also.. so a $30+ mill company is a view i hold of adi just on acreage value and cash..
> 
> hilcorp only gets their % share of regions they actually develop, and hold nil % on anything not developed... they did not pay up front.
> 
> my view that adi is far more a share that can be very easily valued in the old benchmark of .30 like before..
> 
> all imho..





Petrohawk have paid $39m for 50% of 26000 acres.Therefore 13000 acres at 100%.
$39m divide by 13000 acres equals $3000 per acre.

Hope this clarifies things.


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> they better do something soon.. i have to pay a deposit on a house in four weeks.. and am waiting  !!!!  if they do something i can then leave the profit in.. if they dont.. i will have to pull out .. and i know that if this happens an announcement will be the following day !!?!?!




Hey Adobee do you think you can sell today so we can get that announcement out & make a profit? Only kidding but i know where your coming from.
 ADI does'nt seem to come out with too many announcements & if it weren't for Agentm keeping us up to date i dont think there would be as much interest in this one.


----------



## Agentm

gerkin02 said:


> Petrohawk have paid $39m for 50% of 26000 acres.Therefore 13000 acres at 100%.
> $39m divide by 13000 acres equals $3000 per acre.
> 
> Hope this clarifies things.




lol

holy cow.. that is embarrassing..   your right, i doubled it up with the 50% rule..

i eagleford is good value, and adding in the potential of the chalks on top makes the acreages a good asset for adi.


----------



## gerkin02

Agentm said:


> lol
> 
> holy cow.. that is embarrassing..   your right, i doubled it up with the 50% rule..
> 
> i eagleford is good value, and adding in the potential of the chalks on top makes the acreages a good asset for adi.




I listened to petrohawks webcast today and they stated that 1mmcsfd gas plus 100bls condensate is equivelent to 2mmcfd gas.

If adi can get 4mmscfd gas plus 1200bls condensate that equates to 16mmscfd gas equivelant.

These are Haynesville rates with a substancially reduced well costs.(leases are $5000 an acre in the Haynesville shale)

The economics here are truely off the chart.

The punters are asleep and we need results.

All the best.


----------



## Agentm

transcripts posted  by saf on another site..

this is pioneers transcripts from a conference call

i will post it in 2 parts with slides


“So we’re really excited about getting back to drilling after what's been a slow drilling year, 2009. Slide 12 is, and a couple of slides thereafter are some details surrounding the Eagle Ford Shale expansion. We’re extremely excited about the recent well results from the Sinor #5.
As Scott has already mentioned, this well IPed at substantial rates, 11.3 million cubic feet per day equivalent and importantly had a large component of both condensate and NGL such that we can calculate that about 55% of the production is essentially liquids and only about 45% gas.
We were somewhat limited on the extent of the lateral section of this well to only 2,600 feet. We’ll be increasing that as we look forward to future wells. Importantly, we had originally planned about a five well program as we embarked upon our Eagle Ford Shale development.
Now we’re planning to keep that one rig at a minimum growing all the way through 2010 to assess the resource potential in various areas of the field with one of the main objectives being to increase the length of laterals and increase potentially the number of frac stages.
And toward that end we have our second well drilling. It’s shown as the second – the southern most of the two red stars below the Sinor well. This well is about 2.5 miles away from the Sinor well. We’re starting as we speak to drill the horizontal section here shortly. It will itself have about 4,600-foot lateral and the plan is for 16 stages of fracs to be pumped.
And so we’re very much looking forward to this well as the second of several wells looking forward. We’ll have to evaluate a further program expansion as we look the results of this well and additional wells to decide whether to increase the rig count in the play.
As Scott has already alluded to we think there is benefit associated with exploring joint ventures opportunities. We've got a lot of acreage here, the objective is to accelerate the development of that acreage in the Eagle Ford and we think a joint venture could potentially do just that.
Importantly as we return to slide 13, the liquids components of this first well is indicative of potential significant value added when it comes to the economics of these wells, especially based on today's commodity price model where you have based on today's nearby strip prices something like 16 to 1, oil to gas ratio.
So if I were to calculate then the type of impact from the liquids just using the IP of the Sinor #1 well, Sinor #5 well is an example, you would take a dry gas well of the similar volume 11.3 million a day, $5 gas and achieve about $57,000 per day revenue.
If we then compute the amount of revenue that's generated from the Sinor # 5 well, giving consideration to let's say $70 condensate, NGL price is about 50% of that and the remaining dry gas after shrinkage, we would achieve some $96,000 a day of revenue, about a 68% increase compared to the revenue from the dry gas well.
So you can see the very significant impact of a combination of condensate and 1,200 Btu gas on the economics of these wells. And another way to think about it is liquids rich Eagle Ford well with 11.3 million cubic feet a day equivalent IP would have essentially the same revenue as if we had a drilled a dry gas well with about 19 million cubic feet a day dry gas IP.
So it's clear that the liquids content is going to continue to be a critical component in the overall economics and maybe one of the keys to the Eagle Ford shale economics being very competitive as compared to several other shale plays.
So obviously we're very excited about the play and its impact on Pioneer going forward and we have lot more to talk about in subsequent quarters as we begin our exploitation of the Eagle Ford shale”


----------



## Agentm

more from the pioneer conference call

Q & A

Michael Jacobs -Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

On your JV commentary the Spraberry ramp is generating some pretty nice free cash in 2011 plus how do you think about using that cash to accelerate the Eagle Ford whether it would be in Live Oak or the Dewittarea?

Timothy L. Dove

I would look at it like a Spraberry it's going to build on itself in regard to just for ramping up Spraberry, it may or may not have a lot of free cash flows into ramping it up to a 1000, it will start generating significant free cash flow in 2012 and beyond.
And we will take some of our long life gas assets that will be having free cash flow and using some of that to accelerate the Eagle Ford play along with a possible JV, so.

Michael Jacobs -Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Did you guys take a look at the swift assets and so why didn't you get involved?

Timothy L. Dove

We have a policy Michael not to comment on what data rooms we go into. So obviously if you look at, Tim made a comment on this, but if you look at our acreage map, we have extended acreage buying into McMillan County, which is where the swift acreage is.
So obviously it's very, it's close to our acreage. So but just can't comment on what data rooms we go into.

Michael Jacobs -Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

One last question on (inaudible) if we assume best case results from the Eagle Ford, which hope might get into to a development case, would that increase your willingness or your desire to sell international assets?

Timothy L. Dove

We always look at different ways to come up with capital in regard to accelerating obviously the first one will be in regard to JV strategies over looking at with a lot a people are very excited about the Eagle Ford Shale and Petrohawk stating it is good or better than the Haynesville.
And with the oil richness of it that obviously that’s number one but obviously we are always open to looking in other ways to raise capital to accelerate Spraberry and also the Eagle Ford play

David Kistler - Simmons & Company

Okay that's helpful. And then just talking about CapEx for a second, if you look at what you guys been thrown out as your potential budget going forward, there's obviously an opportunity throw off free cash flow tying that to your comments on looking at a JV structure for the Eagle Ford to accelerate drilling there.
Do you think about deploying that gap of free cash flows straight to the Eagle Ford and accelerating that on your own? I guess the gist of the question is does the CapEx number that you throw out have a bias upwards potentially?

Scott Sheffield

Obviously, we need to see some more results. We're watching activity all around our acreage. There's over 20 rigs running now and the Eagle Ford is picking up significantly. And so we're getting reports on all of the wells that lot of our acreage being tested on the outside parameters at the same time we are testing it internally.
So the more data we get the more of comments we have, we will definitely be accelerating in spending that. But at same time I think it's important to deliver free cash flow under any model that we go forward at the same time we need more data to accelerate greatly the Eagle Ford play

http://seekingalpha.com/article/171...call-transcript?page=-1&find=eagle+ford+shale


----------



## Agentm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/171891-eog-resources-inc-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Michael Jacobs - Tudor, Pickering, Holt

Hoping you can nail me out the conceptual question, you are purview to more industry chatter than most. I’d like your thoughts on how you think about geologic versus economic risk in South Texas as you think of acreage North and South of the Edwards Reef?

Mark Papa

Yes. That’s code for what’s going on in Eagleford and our flip response is to know how the Eagleford, but it’s an open secret that we are drilling some wells at Eagleford, but it’s just too soon for us to really opine on the results we’re achieving or what acreage position we have. So all we can offer on that is that in subsequent calls, not necessarily immediately the next call perhaps, but in subsequent calls within the next 12 months we’ll disclose what the situation is in South Texas.





Murphy oil a bit more open



http://seekingalpha.com/article/171...tion-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1




Onshore US we are in the midst of a three well drilling program that will extend into next year and marks our initial Eagle Ford shale drilling in South Texas.

The first well is nearing total depth and testing should be completed within a month. We are continuing to acquire acreage and moving towards 200,000 net acres in the play. These are early days for us but our acreage is well situated and has good promise. 


Paul Sankey – Deutsche Bank

And is there any major moving parts relative to what you said at you analyst meeting, for instance that we should be aware of.

David Wood

No not really, I think things are moving along pretty well. The big step up for us is going to occur actually in 2011 when we get Tupper West on production in the second quarter and we bring on 180 million cubic feet a day so that’s the next big step up that we’re going to look at. We are drilling Eagle Ford wells, an Eagle Ford well now. We have anticipation that in a success case we will have some of that come on but we’re a few steps away from that.

So that could be something else that we would look to add in the event that that works. 


Blake Fernandez – Howard Weil

And then you had mentioned the preference to lease rather then acquire and obviously you’ve been adding to your Eagle Ford position, do you think that’s really where you’re area of focus is going to maintain for right now or do you think you’re going to start to evaluate some other shale play opportunities.

David Wood

We’ve been looking at all, pretty much all types of North American shale opportunities and we settled on the Eagle Ford for a lot of good reasons I think. Having said that we haven’t drilled a well yet. We’re drilling one now which should be at TD this weekend in its horizontal section and then we should flow it here and have some results in a month.

I’m happy to keep growing the Eagle Ford position based on the data that we’ve seen. The well that we’ve drilled, we haven’t flowed it yet but its done all the things that we would ask. The section has drilled more like Haynesville section then anything else that we’ve seen.

And so we the play is well worth making. And 200,000 acres getting that, it puts us with a great footprint and I think one of the pluses for that particular play is the richness of the gas as well. So there’s lots of good reasons. Above ground issues are less then some other plays.

Being able to lease has lots of advantages, one of which you don’t have to write a big check to start off with and the second thing is you don’t have to make all of your commitments all at once and you can kind of space things out and so you can, it goes back to one of the earlier questions, about where the over supply of gas is likely to be.

One of the flexibilities that you want to have in these games is to slow down or speed up and if you’ve got commitments that force you to drill a lot of wells very quickly, you remove a lot of that flexibility and so one of the beauties of having leases with longer terms is that you can go in there and you can decide how fast you want to go and so both the [inaudible] play for us and Eagle Ford for us allow us that flexibility and so I like that.


----------



## Agentm

ADELIPHI announcement


Future operations 

It is anticipated that fracture stimulation of the three horizontal wells, Weston – 1H, Kennedy – 1H and Kowalik – 1H *will commence during the month of November* with the new horizontal wells planned for early 2010.


EKA announcement

• planning and well-site activity on the first phase of the Hilcorp farmin work program at Sugarloaf has commenced with operations underway at all three existing horizontal wells in preparation for *stimulations that are scheduled to start in mid November*.

Having completed this transaction preparation and planning activity commenced immediately at the three existing Sugarloaf wells that are to be stimulated. The fracture design being used requires considerable volumes of water and dedicated water wells and holding pits are being prepared at each location. *Stimulation activities are due to commence on these wells in mid November.* The first farmin wells are expected to be drilled within the Sugarloaf area and are anticipated to commence in Q1 2010.


AUT announcement

• Planning and preparation activity has commenced on the first phase of the Hilcorp farmin work program with operations underway at the three existing horizontal wells in *preparation for stimulation which is scheduled for mid November.*



so its pretty clear that the 2 jvp partners are anticipating a frac this week

have many stayed in the share or have most exited and been part of the big sell down from .18???

very quiet on the adi forums now, when usually there was interest in the share close to operations and often a larger volume of trade, this is the first time i have seen the share grind to a complete halt in the hours before a pretty major event..

keeping my fingers crossed the frac designs in weston will provide access to the charge and get connectivity from the formation into the well bore at commercial rates.

best of luck over the next days to anyone still in it.


----------



## Bubba Oil

Newfield Exploration Company could soon become a player in the Eagle Ford Trend.  NFX has bid $223 million to take TXCO out of bankruptcy.  TXCO has a large acreage position in Dimmit, Maverick, LaSalle and Webb Counties, and is in a joint venture in these areas with Anadarko and St. Mary.

*From Oil & Gas Investor Online (11/9/09):*

Newfield Exploration Co., Houston, (NYSE: NFX) plans to acquire all of the assets of San Antonio-based TXCO Resources Inc. (Nasdaq: TXCO) for $223 million in cash via court auction.

TXCO filed for protection under Chapter 11 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the western district of Texas in May. The Newfield offer is subject to higher and better offers, due by Jan. 6, which includes a 3% break-up fee to Newfield.

TXCO has interests in the Maverick Basin, the onshore Gulf Coast region and the Marfa Basin of Texas, and the Midcontinent region of western Oklahoma. At year-end 2008, TXCO had proved reserves of 81.7 billion cubic feet equivalent (56% oil). 2008 total production was 9.2 billion cubic feet equivalent. It held 160,000 gross developed acres (66,700 net) and 1.1 million gross undeveloped acres (694,000 net) in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Assets included 749 gross producing wells (457 net). TXCO core operations are in the Maverick Basin of South Texas prospective for the Pearsall and Eagle Ford shales, and the San Miguel heavy oil sands. It also holds interests in the Marfa Basin in West Texas, the Fort Trinidad area of East Texas, and in the Midcontinent region of western Oklahoma.

In February, the company retained Goldman Sachs & Co. to review strategic alternatives and in August retained Global Hunter Securities LLC.


----------



## adobee

You would think ADI could make an anouncement to some affect and get some interest pre frac...

Still hold .. But attending an auction this weekend so may be forced to sell before settlement say 35days from 14th ..

Should leave me in for a bit of a run if something comes out .. If it does will leave profit in ..


----------



## sam76

do you hold many shares in ADI, Adobee?

If you hold over 100k you could probably sell it down 30% lol


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> You would think ADI could make an anouncement to some affect and get some interest pre frac...
> 
> Still hold .. But attending an auction this weekend so may be forced to sell before settlement say 35days from 14th ..
> 
> Should leave me in for a bit of a run if something comes out .. If it does will leave profit in ..




lol

i think they are fracing all three straight away


so one after the other..  i think exactly 36 days after the 14th of this month the sp will fly up, and all in one day,  and be north of $1 and heading for $2

pity you will be selling the day before, (the 35th day) but you will have a nice house..

maybe wait a few months then you can buy a whole town

lol


----------



## adobee

sam76 said:


> do you hold many shares in ADI, Adobee?
> 
> If you hold over 100k you could probably sell it down 30% lol




I was just considering taking it up to 16c which would be hard either and then quickly printing a snap shot of my portfolio for my loan docs ... Same goes for my BMYO & ROGO and actually all my other shares.. I would only need to spend about 30k and my portfolio value could x4 !


----------



## adobee

looks like sellers are slowly drying up which is positive.. it wont take much to run.. but it will take something .. fingers crossed that something comes soon !


----------



## rock86

adobee said:


> looks like sellers are slowly drying up which is positive.. it wont take much to run.. but it will take something .. fingers crossed that something comes soon !




Seems like we have been waiting forever, but hasn't been that long since the farmin and well frac announcement, I think we all just no this little stocks potential and want it to fly the coup soon


----------



## Kremmen

Agentm said:


> have many stayed in the share or have most exited and been part of the big sell down from .18???



I have been watching this thread with interest for a little while. When they started sliding back, I put in an order at .13 but didn't think they'd get that low. I suddenly got a contract note email a few days ago, which reminded me! 

You are obviously watching this company, and those in the same area, very closely. You may have commented on this before, (I haven't read all 200+ pages of this thread) but what was behind you becoming the ADI expert, as opposed to following anything else?


----------



## Agentm

Kremmen said:


> I have been watching this thread with interest for a little while. When they started sliding back, I put in an order at .13 but didn't think they'd get that low. I suddenly got a contract note email a few days ago, which reminded me!
> 
> You are obviously watching this company, and those in the same area, very closely. You may have commented on this before, (I haven't read all 200+ pages of this thread) but what was behind you becoming the ADI expert, as opposed to following anything else?





its a bit off topic,  if you want to discuss the share i am all for it.. and i dont think i will be discussing other issues OT on this thread

imho some potentially great days ahead.. 

cheers


----------



## Kremmen

Agentm said:


> its a bit off topic



You are not compelled to tell us, but I think someone's reason for becoming heavily involved in a stock is on topic, if they are going to be writing tens of pages of data here. If someone has a vested interest, for example, it may be appropriate for readers to know.

Secondly, how investors choose to get involved with specific shares is relevant to the topic of stock investment in general.


----------



## martyfar

Agentm)

i think they are fracing all three straight away[/QUOTE said:
			
		

> Hiya Agent,
> 
> Got a coupla queries,  was wonderin if you may be able to shed some light on...
> 
> .....any idea on how long it will take  (roughly) to complete each frac, and what is the likely cost of the revised frac method ??
> 
> I understand Hilcorp will pay for the fracs and a number of new wells in the new year ....  however is ther money they spend on fraccing the three existing wells,  and the drilling costs of the new wells (as per the farmout agreement) to be paid back to them (Hilcorp) out of initial production earnings ?
> 
> cheers


----------



## Agentm

marty

i think bubbaoil can answer timings on 14 stage multi fracs, 

Kennedy

Fracture stimulate the entire
3,800 ft lateral with up to 14
stages.

Kowalik

Acid stimulation or large
single stage fracture
stimulation or both.


Weston

Fracture stimulate the entire
3,800 ft lateral with up to 14
stages.


lol  lets hope there is not a 3 month frac job planned for these wells like conocophillips had with bordovsky!


ADI is free carried on the operations.. and for the completion of 3 news wells in the acreages. The first well is scheduled to start any time from about 52 days from now (Q1 2010)  where hilcorp are currently scheduling 10 wells for 2010.


sorry kemmen, not entering into it.. cheers


----------



## estseon

Though ADI said that Weston was 3,800 ft in the latest qtly, that is an error, I think. They did a cut & paste on Kennedy. It is 3,000ft. That is what I recall from the RNSs and that is what EME says in its published accounts.

"Total depth of 15,797ft was reached on 13 February 2009, after which a 4  ½” liner was cemented to total depth. The original plan was to drill to 18,405ft measured depth and drilling was cut short to reduce risks as several challenges were encountered whilst drilling. This premature termination still meant that
approximately 3000ft of horizontal hole lay within the target zone of the Upper Austin Chalk"

There's a suggestion ("several challenges") that this might be a bit of a monster. we shall see....


----------



## Agentm

regency partners on the eagleford

In South Texas, volumes around our South Texas gathering and treating system continue to ramp up with the continued drilling of the Eagle Ford shale plate.

We added 5 new Eagle Ford wells to our system in the third quarter and we expect an increase in drilling activity going forward.

*Currently, we are flowing out of the Eagle Ford shale area, approximately 70 mill cubic feet per day*.* That’s a significant increase from where we were at the beginning of the year with very low volumes. So this area is getting very active and we’re seeing the results in our South Texas region*.





John Edwards - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.

On the Eagle Ford shale, given the push by enterprise in that areas, well how are your, how is margins holding up on the volumes coming in there?

Patrick Giroir

This is Pat Giroir, the margins are holding on quite well, I mean we have through the couple of different contracts, been able to provide some effective out takes for the liquids for our customers. So in terms of the gathering margins they are holding at this time.


.............

Lenny Brecken - Brecken Capital

Did you quantify the actual contribution to volumes for Eagle Ford for the quarter?

Byron R. Kelley

Let's get exact number we're moving 70 now we did an average 70 for the whole quarter though, I'll let my numbers do to look that up.

Lenny Brecken - Brecken Capital

So it's definitely up substantially sequentially?

Byron R. Kelley

That's correct.

Stephen L. Arata

It's up every month.

Byron R. Kelley

That’s right and we had five wells in the quarter.

Lenny Brecken - Brecken Capital

Can you please just review to us what your capacity is there to expand that?

Byron R. Kelley

Pat, you want to go around?

Patrick Giroir

The capacity I mean it just depends on where we take the gas and the one nice piece to our system down there is we have a number of key takeaways by the different takeaway locations on several or the other pipelines in the processing folks down there.

So, we can probably load up that line depending on whether the gas comes in another 100 million plus, I mean it's easily expandable.

Lenny Brecken - Brecken Capital

Easily expandable, is that capital or --?

Patrick Giroir

With the limited amount of capital we can probably get another $50 million to $75 million a day out of the line.

Lenny Brecken - Brecken Capital

So, it is bringing close to 250 to 300 then?

Patrick Giroir

Right.

Lenny Brecken - Brecken Capital

Total?

Patrick Giroir

It's just a factor of the key line that we have down there that is ideally suited for this, it goes right through kind of the heart of the current drilling that you're seeing down there.

The impact in the third quarter, the increased drilling down there was about three-quarter to a million dollars of margin for us.


...............


Michael Blum - Wells Fargo

Two other questions. One, you did a nice job of going through by geography what you're seeing now, but I'm curious if you have any general thoughts on where you see volumes in the gathering business going in 2010?

Byron R. Kelley

Well, obviously we expect the Eagle Ford shale area and South Texas continue to add volumes. West Texas, we think we've got a chance to add a little volume in West Texas with the increased prices in oil and associated gas as well as with the higher capacity we now have through our upgrade in our plant.

We have the opportunity to go try to capture some additional packages there.



http://seekingalpha.com/article/172...ners-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> marty
> 
> i think bubbaoil can answer timings on 14 stage multi fracs,
> 
> Kennedy
> 
> Fracture stimulate the entire
> 3,800 ft lateral with up to 14
> stages.
> 
> Kowalik
> 
> Acid stimulation or large
> single stage fracture
> stimulation or both.
> 
> 
> Weston
> 
> Fracture stimulate the entire
> 3,800 ft lateral with up to 14
> stages.
> 
> 
> lol  lets hope there is not a 3 month frac job planned for these wells like conocophillips had with bordovsky!
> 
> 
> ADI is free carried on the operations.. and for the completion of 3 news wells in the acreages. The first well is scheduled to start any time from about 52 days from now (Q1 2010)  where hilcorp are currently scheduling 10 wells for 2010.
> 
> 
> sorry kemmen, not entering into it.. cheers






I would say the 14 stage frac would take from five to seven days.  Typically two or three frac stages can be completed per day.


----------



## estseon

Bubba,

Would I be right in thinking that they will isolate each section (say 2-300 ft), perforate, fracc, put in a temporary plug, then move on down to the next section? It has been suggested that they might want to flow test the early ones to optimise the design - is this possible? That would take a few days, surely?

I just wondered because there seem to be doomsters on some BBs who think that oilfield ops should all go according to undisclosed timetables and will bray about failure if there is no report when they think there should be one. They work out constant drilling rates and do simple arithmetic based on those.

The history of Weston per EME releases at the time:

21 Jan 09 - minor flares gas readings 3,100
28 Jan 09 - still flaring gas readings 2,000 - 3,000
04 Feb 09 - drilling assembly stuck - flares up to 60ft
11 Feb 09 - 'fish' bypassed - flares up to 40 ft (gas units 2,000+)
18 Feb 09 - cemented production liner successfully run

Two things occur (but I could be totally wrong):

1.  There does not seem to be anything uniform about the 3,000 ft so fraccing design might have to be modified as they proceed along (??)

2.  There could be sections encountering natural fractures.


----------



## choppy

Word around the campfire in Texas is that the Bordovsky well (IP 4 mmcfg 1500 bo)  went downhill really fast.  Anyone else heard that rumor?  AgentM?

 I heard that they screened out alot of their frac and they were bailing sand out of the tubing for weeks,  so it may be that it has sand plugging up the tubing again.  Seems like Burlington should farm out their acreage to another operator who knows what they are doing.


----------



## Miner

Kremmen said:


> You are not compelled to tell us, but I think someone's reason for becoming heavily involved in a stock is on topic, if they are going to be writing tens of pages of data here. If someone has a vested interest, for example, it may be appropriate for readers to know.
> 
> Secondly, how investors choose to get involved with specific shares is relevant to the topic of stock investment in general.




Dear Kremmen

Curiosity is good but that should be taken with reason.

You chose not to read the postings on ADI and just asking Agentm's interest.
 He was a bit polite to evade the issue. But I thought to write something more from the perspective of excellent knowledge base posting Agentm has been contributing on this stock for few years. Of course Agentm  has vested interest from the gain from ADI. But look he is sharing all info he could. Why not appreciate it?

Yes I do have vested interest as I hold. I bought ADI at 6.4 cents knowing nothing but following this thread. I give the major credit to Agentm and balance to others in this forum. 

It is not always true as I bough GCR at 4.8 cents following postings by some so called excellent contributor. I lost heaps of money. That was my discredit as I was idiot not to undertake enough research and jumped into conclusion into buy. For the record I also learnt heaps from the postings from Kennas, Grace, Hanseng, Jman, Seaspirite, Julia, So Cynical,  Kegee, Kauri,  and others. Hats off to them. 

So lessons learnt  FIRST ADI or any thread just read objectively and cut the fat if any and DYOR. Profit is your and loss is your too. Do not blame or no point in asking some one's interest unless you feel it is a ramping or wrong info. 

Why not share some of your experience too ?

Regards


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Word around the campfire in Texas is that the Bordovsky well (IP 4 mmcfg 1500 bo)  went downhill really fast.  Anyone else heard that rumor?  AgentM?
> 
> I heard that they screened out alot of their frac and they were bailing sand out of the tubing for weeks,  so it may be that it has sand plugging up the tubing again.  Seems like Burlington should farm out their acreage to another operator who knows what they are doing.




choppy

all i heard was that halliburton and conoco worked hard on cobra frac, and i did hear of down hole issues but nothing like your alluding to.  i will ask around and see if the local talk matches up.. jim from conoco was pretty positive on the well and the eagleford, and they must have said it a few times that they are in negotiations with a farm out of the sugarkane.. they are just waiting for the price to be right..  i have no idea on what declines bordovsky has had..

halliburton advertise that cobra system on wells to about 8000 feet so to be using it in overheated and overpressurised formations at 16000 feet is stepping up the technology big time

i thought a far simpler multi stage frac is very much on the minds of the frac engineers working for TCEI and hilcorp..

bubba may want to comment on multistage fracs on the chalks, i am not familiar with many regional austin chalk wells doing them, but the eagleford is being extensively fracced with multistages and delivering good wells so far.


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

I have some doubts/questions as to how Conoco views the play:

If the play is so great then why are they farming it out?  It definitely isn't too small for them.  On the other hand of course they say they like the play if they are trying to court a farm-out partner. 

There are many wells being drilled/ fraced in the eagleford by other companies without any of the associated mechanical problems that they have had in this area.  Do you think the bordovsky well is in the basal austin chalk (upper eagleford?) or in the eagleford (lower eagleford)?  What is your basis for where in the zone the well is?  Most of the other successful wells produce from the lower eagleford on trend.


----------



## Bubba Oil

estseon said:


> Bubba,
> 
> Would I be right in thinking that they will isolate each section (say 2-300 ft), perforate, fracc, put in a temporary plug, then move on down to the next section? It has been suggested that they might want to flow test the early ones to optimise the design - is this possible? That would take a few days, surely?
> 
> I just wondered because there seem to be doomsters on some BBs who think that oilfield ops should all go according to undisclosed timetables and will bray about failure if there is no report when they think there should be one. They work out constant drilling rates and do simple arithmetic based on those.
> 
> The history of Weston per EME releases at the time:
> 
> 21 Jan 09 - minor flares gas readings 3,100
> 28 Jan 09 - still flaring gas readings 2,000 - 3,000
> 04 Feb 09 - drilling assembly stuck - flares up to 60ft
> 11 Feb 09 - 'fish' bypassed - flares up to 40 ft (gas units 2,000+)
> 18 Feb 09 - cemented production liner successfully run
> 
> Two things occur (but I could be totally wrong):
> 
> 1.  There does not seem to be anything uniform about the 3,000 ft so fraccing design might have to be modified as they proceed along (??)
> 
> 2.  There could be sections encountering natural fractures.




esteon,

I have not heard of anyone flowing back their wells after only doing a few frac stages and I do not think it would be prudent to do so.  The standard way to do it is to complete all the frac stages and then flow it back.

agentm,

In the "classic" chalk play operators often do two or three horizontal legs from the same wellbore and do not frac.  It is not necessary because of the natural fractures in the chalk.  The Sugarkane area might be a little different and the fracs in the Eagle Ford may be fracing in to the chalk also.  Maybe this is why this area is so rich in liquids.


----------



## Agentm

thanks for the reply bubba


this eog map in their presentation are pretty good, i added 3 eagleford wells they missed belonging to pioneer in live oak, their wells north of our kowalik well, the dan hughes well,  eog wells in dewitt they neglected to tell their shareholders about.. but they have a lot of the others pegged in..

they speicfy the sugarkane field also which is the first time i have seen it mentioned, not even conocophillips have talked about their sugarkane field, only the eagleoford..


----------



## estseon

Bubba,

Thanks a lot for the reply.

I tried to say just that the other day, but it was too short to be accepted by ASF.

So, if I may, I would like to clarify the possible Kowalik single stage frac. I was trying to think how that would work. Surely they cannot (hydraulic)  fracc where there are natural fractures? The fracc fluid and proppant would just disappear.

EME reported (2008)

10 Sept: 1,400 ft - intermittent flaring for last 100 ft
17 Sept: 2,100 ft - flaring following wiping operation
24 Sept: 2,500 ft - flaring activity
1 Oct   : 3,500 ft - gas intermittent - flares 45 - 55 ft
8 Oct   : 4,350 ft - Significant flares & back pressure
15 Oct : 4,500 ft - Ditto
22 Oct : 4,600 ft - Ditto - well completed short of target 6,000 ft

They had flaring activity for the 'bottom' 3,300 ft and seem to have had significant problems with the final 250 ft (they lost equipment and had to fish it out)

They were drilling underpressured (I think).


----------



## Agentm

baker 3  is 4190 foot lateral into the sugarkane, drilled by conocophillips and the ip report for it has become available.

the well was tested for ip on the 16th sept 2009

initial ip flow rates were as high as 4mmcfpd, and based on sugarkane averages you would be expecting the bopd to be in the region of 1230 bopd

any comments on baker 3  bubba!!


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

Based on the Gas to oil Ratio stated on that completion report of 7228,  if it is making 4 mmcfd of gas then it would be making 553 bopd.


----------



## Agentm

18 November 2009

Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF AMI: SUGARKANE GAS & CONDENSATE FIELD OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) provides an update on preparatory work for well stimulation operations within the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (AMI). These operations will form the first phase of the farm-in workscope as outlined in our announcement dated 6th October 2009.

The detailed planning for the fracture stimulation of each of the three horizontal wells has been completed. The operator of the Sugarloaf AMI, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI) intends to carry out ‘multi –staged’ fracture stimulations along the horizontal section of each of the three wells. Each stage will be individually hydraulically stimulated using a design that has proved effective elsewhere in the play; that stage is then isolated and
the process repeated further up the liner. At Kowalik -1H, where it was not possible to recover the slotted liner, the slotted section will be stimulated with a single larger treatment and the conventional solid section of the liner will be treated in a similar fashion to the other two wells. Once treated, the wells will be brought on line to sales.

Each well has now been prepared with the production tubing now pulled at both Kennedy -1H and Kowalik -1H. The horizontal liners of all three wells are presently being washed out and clean water left behind ahead of the stimulations.

At Weston - 1H, production facilities are being installed, including a pipeline connection to the Kennedy -1H location to utilise the existing tie-in to a major export gas pipeline. 

Progress to date and the availability of equipment indicates that the likely start of fracture operations will be during December. Each stimulation will take approximately 10 to 14 days. A further announcement will be made when these operations commence.

Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.


----------



## Bubba Oil

agentm,

I agree with choppy's bopd number for the #3Baker based on the GOR.  Yesterday Common Resources announced a good well result in LaSalle County (from PLS Market Alert):

Common Resources scores record Eagle Ford well, 12.9 MMCFeD
Common Resources LLC founder Roger Jarvis announced, at the November
17 Houston Producers Forum, drilling the “best Eagle Ford well to date.” The STS-
29H well in southeast LaSalle Co., Texas yielded 12.9 MMcfe/d on a 72 hour test and
was completed with a 15 stage frac. The well encountered 240 feet of reservoir, 18%
porosity and is currently producing 10 MMCFeD. Jarvis stated the well is expected
to yield 4.5 Bcfe and probably better than that. For perspective, Jarvis described the
Hawkville field in the Eagle Ford shale play as “uniquely thick and porous” coming
in at 180 to 300 feet. The average rates in the field are 9.1 MMCFeD on a 72 hour rate.
Common Resources holds 48,675 gross, 36,918 net acres in LaSalle and
McMullen counties and has 50 sq. miles of 3D and 3,320 miles of 2D. The leading
neighbor is Petrohawk who has recently been bringing wells in the 9.4 MMCFeD
range – again on a 72 hour test basis. Also in the area are El Paso, Lewis Petroleum,
Murphy Exploration and Rosetta Resources. — Gentry Braswell


----------



## Agentm

Bubba, do you think Baker 3 is open hole flow?  i cant see any frac mentioned in the completion report  


just a quick regional overview

SOUTH AND WEST

conooco is drilling plomero
Pioneer is drilling Robert Crawley
Crimson is Drilling Dubose


NORTH

EOG is drilling 2 wells Lyssy 1 and 2H


----------



## Bubba Oil

Agentm said:


> Bubba, do you think Baker 3 is open hole flow?  i cant see any frac mentioned in the completion report
> 
> 
> just a quick regional overview
> 
> SOUTH AND WEST
> 
> conooco is drilling plomero
> Pioneer is drilling Robert Crawley
> Crimson is Drilling Dubose
> 
> 
> NORTH
> 
> EOG is drilling 2 wells Lyssy 1 and 2H




agentm,

I would say the test rates shown on their completion report are post frac.  I do not think they could achieve these kind of rates without fracing.


----------



## estseon

Bubba Oil said:


> agentm,
> 
> I agree with choppy's bopd number for the #3Baker based on the GOR.
> ==========================================================
> Bubba / choppy.
> 
> I fished around on the RRC site and found this form:
> 
> http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/forms/forms/og/pdf/g-1p.pdf
> 
> There's no doubt (I think) that the figure is CFG/bbls (physical not energy conversion) but there is no clarity as to whether the reported gas volume includes the equivalent for the condensate (in which case, what conversion factor?) or whether it is just gas (in which case, why no report on the liquids).
> 
> If the reported flow includes the energy value of the liquids at about 5,660 cfg/bbl, it looks like a flow of 310bbls + 2.25mmcfg.
> 
> The liquids look low against the expected 250 bbls/1mmcfg but many of the early results on Block A were gassier immediately after fraccing but settled down towards the expected ratio.
> 
> Any views on this form and the meaning of the figures?


----------



## choppy

On a gas well completion report there is no place to put the number of bbls of condensate.  You simply state the actual amount of gas and the GOR.  On an annual gas well test report there is a place for liquids amounts: gas and/or water.  Based on this I think the well is approx 4mmcfg and 550 barrels per day.


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> You would think ADI could make an anouncement to some affect and get some interest pre frac...
> 
> Still hold .. But attending an auction this weekend so may be forced to sell before settlement say 35days from 14th ..
> 
> Should leave me in for a bit of a run if something comes out .. If it does will leave profit in ..




Still holding Adobee?

Agentm you must have much patience in order to be still holding these over the years without any significant results. I hope it pays of you in the long run but for myself as with BMY i'm starting to lose interest in it. Sold out of BCC at .062c for a 80% profit only to buy more ADI


----------



## buttonzhu

Every dog has its day. 

I think it is turning back in the short term trade according to my model.

Cheers


----------



## nomore4s

buttonzhu said:


> Every dog has its day.
> 
> I think it is turning back in the short term trade according to my model.
> 
> Cheers




buttonzhu,

Please provide some more detail to this post. Maybe explain why it is turning into a short term trade with either a chart or some reasoning. This is your last warning

This is a reminder to all posters that ASF expects a high standard of posting in the stock threads to keep the quality content up for the benefit of all users of the site. Posts like the above would normally be removed so to save wasting both your time and the mods time please try to add some useful content.

Thank you.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Still holding Adobee?
> 
> Agentm you must have much patience in order to be still holding these over the years without any significant results. I hope it pays of you in the long run but for myself as with BMY i'm starting to lose interest in it. Sold out of BCC at .062c for a 80% profit only to buy more ADI




whether i have traded in and out or taken profit is not up for discussion jancha..

a year back the gfc caused adi to shut down all ops and try and survive, it did so by selling assets and getting a farm in partner.

those two objectives were reached

oil came back up from $35 bo to its current value around $77

if you understand the history, most investors got in way above the .03 - .06 range that adi sat at from about jan/feb.. 

a lot of investors, and me included, added considerably during the long wait when it was uncertain adi would be coming back in any shape at all..

in october 09 the farm in happened, and the yemen cash came thru.. so adi has only really come out of hibernation in the past 2 months,,


since then the frac designs were agreed to, and all three wells were worked over and prepared for a frac. water wells drilled, dams built and a new way of attacking the formation is now foremost in their minds

right now all 3 wells are ready for fracture stimulation, using a staged multifrac processes, those operations are likely in dec 09.. but i have heard on one well it could be a lot sooner 

another 12 months of waiting was something one had to do if they chose to.

dont concern yourself too much over what patience i am capable of achieving. its not something i will be discussing in any case.. 

its very likely imho that with 3 laterals about to be opened up, and with 3 further wells drilled completely free carried, that some serious upside is available to the sp of adi..  what your not getting is hyped up reports that other small cap oilers are putting out...


----------



## adobee

I am still in.. (missed the house by $30k) agent underquoted it by $200k pretty poor form.. anyway Still in and have decided today to hold.. I am very positive on this one and sick of pulling out of things when I read other peoples negativity which changes my sentiment .. check out GWR today.. sold last week following all the negativity ...  Short term not sure where this is going but once news is out it should be a different story..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> whether i have traded in and out or taken profit is not up for discussion jancha..
> 
> a year back the gfc caused adi to shut down all ops and try and survive, it did so by selling assets and getting a farm in partner.
> 
> those two objectives were reached
> 
> oil came back up from $35 bo to its current value around $77
> 
> if you understand the history, most investors got in way above the .03 - .06 range that adi sat at from about jan/feb..
> 
> a lot of investors, and me included, added considerably during the long wait when it was uncertain adi would be coming back in any shape at all..
> 
> in october 09 the farm in happened, and the yemen cash came thru.. so adi has only really come out of hibernation in the past 2 months,,
> 
> 
> since then the frac designs were agreed to, and all three wells were worked over and prepared for a frac. water wells drilled, dams built and a new way of attacking the formation is now foremost in their minds
> 
> right now all 3 wells are ready for fracture stimulation, using a staged multifrac processes, those operations are likely in dec 09.. but i have heard on one well it could be a lot sooner
> 
> another 12 months of waiting was something one had to do if they chose to.
> 
> dont concern yourself too much over what patience i am capable of achieving. its not something i will be discussing in any case..
> 
> its very likely imho that with 3 laterals about to be opened up, and with 3 further wells drilled completely free carried, that some serious upside is available to the sp of adi..  what your not getting is hyped up reports that other small cap oilers are putting out...




Agentm that wasn't a question for you to answer nor to discuss i was merely stating that you would have to had been very patient with ADI over the years. I've bought in at between .05 & .15 with a base cost of 10c & been following it for the last 6mths.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm that wasn't a question for you to answer nor to discuss i was merely stating that you would have to had been very patient with ADI over the years. I've bought in at between .05 & .15 with a base cost of 10c & been following it for the last 6mths.





its been great value since february, and with trojan and a few others who really supported adi for many years moving out in those tough months, there was plenty available. plenty of shares from the .06 cap raising also were sold in the recent run up..

my view is that the fraccing of 3 wells at the same time will spark a bit of speculation and see some buying pressure come back on the sp..

its very interesting times with the type of frac being undertaken imho

http://www.iogcc.state.ok.us/Websites/iogcc/Images/Biloxi2009/IOGCC Uconv Gas 10_09 Handout.pdf


http://www.pe.tamu.edu/crisman/files/CrismanAnnualReport2008.pdf


----------



## gerkin02

Agentm,
           How long after an eagle ford well is completed and flow tested,does a company have to file a report with the Texas railroad commission?

Thankyou in advance.


----------



## Agentm

they can be filed many months later in some circumstances. i have seen them held off for close to a year on some wells.

the other aspect is that once the report is filed and it can also take a long time to process it online in some offices. if that office is busy..

lately its been a few months later and they pop up, if the region is getting a lot of leasing activity, it seems to take forever.  (understandingly)


----------



## estseon

Choppy,

Thanks a lot for clarifying the entries on the form.

agentm,

I get the feeling that the shale gas reserves are viewed as a strategic resource by the US that will both reduce reliance on imported supplies and vulnerability to politically motivated pressures by producer countries and also will provide a means of maintaining some influence over global energy prices.

I believe that to be one of the reasons why the US is reluctant to reduce its use of coal. It may also be a factor in its aggressive stance towards Iraq and Iran.

External factors seem to indicate towards US government support for the development of the gas shale resource. I don't feel that the US administration's sudden concern for carbon emissions is based on a newly discovered concern for polar bears. I therefore do not feel that the US administration will permit temporary economic factors to jeopardise the development of this resource. They need at least 20 years before nuclear fusion generation can hope to start to come on stream and that is assuming that they can crack the engineering problems of controlling what is in effect a hydrogen bomb.

That might be a naive view however.


----------



## Agentm

hey estseon..we all need a good panic story to ratify the next commodity, or bubble, carbon credits.. 

the spin today, to get things over the line,  is that the polar caps are melting. apparently this is a revelation of sorts... the bears will have to get leaner and meaner to survive.... 

so relating it to texas.. its real important to get the oil out of places like texas before they have to use sea based jack up rigs in karnes county when the tides rush in..


choppy and bubba


any thoughts on Ceradyne?


----------



## estseon

agent

some people think that the melting of the north pole sea ice will raise sea levels. It might a bit. The cooling of the sea by the melt water might cause local temperatures to fall below 4 degrees for a while. As everyone knows, the temperature of maximum density of that rather extraordinary liquid is 4 degrees and so local cooling could result in a bit of local expansion. I bet that they did not factor that into "The Models", which we must now all pay homage to.

Do you have a theory (other than the Buda water danger) as to why COP has focussed on the Austin chalk rather than the Eagleford? The neighbours seem to be focussed on the shale and our experience is that the chalk is difficult to drill. EME also has the experience at Quinn 3 in the Riverbend acreage of chalk. The natural fractures produce exciting flares during drilling but it must make the operation difficult as well as hazardous.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> agent
> 
> some people think that the melting of the north pole sea ice will raise sea levels. It might a bit. The cooling of the sea by the melt water might cause local temperatures to fall below 4 degrees for a while. As everyone knows, the temperature of maximum density of that rather extraordinary liquid is 4 degrees and so local cooling could result in a bit of local expansion. I bet that they did not factor that into "The Models", which we must now all pay homage to.
> 
> Do you have a theory (other than the Buda water danger) as to why COP has focussed on the Austin chalk rather than the Eagleford? The neighbours seem to be focussed on the shale and our experience is that the chalk is difficult to drill. EME also has the experience at Quinn 3 in the Riverbend acreage of chalk. The natural fractures produce exciting flares during drilling but it must make the operation difficult as well as hazardous.




in kunde 1 burlington fracced the chalks.. they drilled a second vertical, a "twin" well called kunde 2, that well had massive pressure problems, and i heard there was some expensive equipment down hole when things went wrong, and they ended up cementing the equipment down hoile and getting out, later it was side tracked and drilled again as a well to purely to do down hole readings from when fraccing kunde 3.. i think eme invested in that one but its not been a great investment at all in terms of the well design not being considered for production..

why the interest in the chalks?  why not? its a massive resource and technology was advancing. back then it was a new discovery, over the last 3 years its developed to a stage where conoco is about to embark on a drilling program. imho Q1 2010

if you look at petrohawk, with the use of clever technology, and with ceramic bearing technology they are drilling wells in weeks that took months before. although their eagleford acreages is productive, the chalks and eagleford in the sugarkane are many times more productive in condensate. i have been told many times that conoco are not in the region and not leasing acreages for the gas, its purely a very positive move on the condensate rich chalks and eagleford - sugarkane - thats their primary concern. i have never seen conoco spend any time on presentations concerning themselves with a new field, but the eagleford was highlighted in their recent announcements, and discussed many times in the presentation and in the Q&A.. that company has many plays and many irons in the fire, but the eagleford was very very much in discussion.. in my view its a very prospective project to them..  

Conoco have now got somewhere with the sugarkane, they have fracced bordovsky which i am still hearing good things about. choppy has heard otherwise i know, but local talk is that the well is good. my own view on the eagleford is that technology is advanced enough to see many large operators commence exploration. although we are the first into the sugarkane, its clear the learning curve has progressed, no more are we hearing about east texas chalks completions being replicated in our wells, now we are hearing multistage fracs. more the eagleford progression imho

close by to our kowalik well hawthorn have a permit for a vertical a bit south of the 3 eog lyssy wells being drilled into the oil rich eagleford right now.. 

dan hughes liked their darlene well so much they are drilling a slightly longer well 1400 feet east of darlene 1h, called darlene 2h.. nice oil wells in the eagleford just a but north and east of kowalik, near falls city







[/IMG]


this is what saf posted last night in the uk, interesting article





“Investors Hope For Early Christmas Present From The Eagle Ford Shale Play”

For investors in Aurora Oil & Gas, 2009 has been a fairly quiet year, dominated by the ASX-company’s search for farm-in partners for its promising Sugarkane gas and condensate field in South Texas.That hunt concluded in September, when the company signed agreed farm-in terms with Hilcorp, the fourth largest private E&P in the US.
The deal, which signaled some much-needed uplift in the share price, means Aurora will now be free carried for the drilling, completion and tie in of up to seven new horizontal wells and the stimulation of the three existing horizontal wells on the field. This will put ten wells into production across its three Areas of Mutual Interest: Sugarloaf (20 per cent pre-farm-out), Longhorn (50 per cent) and Ipanema (80 per cent). In return, Hilcorp will earn up to 50 per cent of Aurora’s interest in the Sugarloaf and Longhorn Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI) and five/eights of the smaller Ipanema AMI.
With the terms agreed, the joint venture is keen to return to the field to test its potential. And that potential could be significant, with talk of a multi-tcf condensate-rich resource within the prolific and well known Austin Chalk formation and the emerging Eagle Ford Shale trend. The field, discovered in 2006, lies some 20 km south of the main Texas Austin Chalk trend and is on trend with recent Eagle Ford Shale discoveries.
Aurora holds over 20,000 net acres within the Sugarkane field, providing a solid footprint in what could turn out to be a world-class play, with independent petroleum engineers Netherland, Sewell & Associates giving the ASX group’s slice of the pie a 2C contingent resource estimate of 391 billion cubic feet of gas and 72 million barrels of condensate. This estimate comes at an early stage in the evaluation cycle. Since its discovery, 15 exploration and appraisal wells have been drilled into the reservoir, four within Aurora’s area of interest and eleven drilled by US oil major ConocoPhillips in an adjacent AMI. Yet it is only recently that the potential of the Eagle Ford Shale play has been recognized.
The growing regional buzz surrounding the Eagle Ford shale trend has seen increased investment in land and drilling activity on neighbouring leases. As we pointed out in last week’s note on Texon Petroleum, another ASX -company with ambitions in the US, shale oil and gas plays are big news in North America but they come with a health warning: they only work if the right completion and production solutions can be found to economically extract the hydrocarbons from these tight rock formations.
Some local operators are getting it right. NYSE-listed Petrohawk Energy has 16-operated wells in production on its lands to the southeast of Aurora, with an average initial rate of 7.8 million cubic feet per day of gas and 143 bpd of condensate, while the Sinor-5 well, operated by Pioneer Natural Resources some 18 miles to the southwest of Sugarloaf-1, flowed 8.3 million cf/d of gas and 500 bpd of condensate.
Aurora and its joint venture partners plan to learn from their neighbours. Two wells are producing limited volumes on the Sugarloaf AMI, Kennedy-1H and Kowalik-1H, with the unstimulated Kowalik well producing 10.3 million cubic feet of gas and 3,395 barrels of condensate over the September business quarter and the partially-stimulated Kennedy well producing just over 2 million cf of gas and 743 barrels of condensate for the three month period. A third horizontal well, Weston-1H, is not producing..There are hopes that hydraulic stimulation will significantly boost production.
Fraccing operations should get underway next month. The operator Texas Crude Energy Inc plans to carry out “multi-staged” fracture stimulations along the horizontal section, using an engineering solution that has proved effective elsewhere in the play. Each stimulation is expected to take between ten and fourteen days, meaning investors shouldn’t have too long to wait for some operations-driven news flow. The first new wells under the farm-in deal should get underway in Q1 2010. Two thousand and nine may have been a quiet year for Aurora but next year is already looking much livelier.


----------



## estseon

Thanks a lot, agent.

I don't recall any report on the Kunde 2 problems.

Hopefully, we do not have too long to wait for the first frac results. Would you think that the new wells will be in the chalks? or do you think that they will be looking at the Eagleford? Or might they try to drill the top of the Eagleford and fracc both horizons?


----------



## estseon

estseon said:


> Or might they try to drill the top of the Eagleford and fracc both horizons?




Well, it would seem that the ADI board has answered that question. That is precisely what they have planned according to the presentation published.


----------



## jancha

estseon said:


> Well, it would seem that the ADI board has answered that question. That is precisely what they have planned according to the presentation published.




Nice presentation with lots of potential. Nothing really new tho with whats already been said. One day this will see blue skies question is when.


----------



## bart9

Yesterday I had a conversation with a landman recently cut loose from one of the operators in Karnes.....the word is that COP has been flaring gas continuously  (presumabley under a burn permit from RRC-Austin) in order to produce the liquids from the Bordovsky well....seems the nearest gas line is 5 miles away...further, the comment was made that the volume gas per location locally may not justify laying a gathering line of much length anytime soon.....I haven't looked at the pipeline locations in Karnes...to detect an operator's preference for locations nearest existing gas lines...


----------



## swm79

long time reader of your thread agent... i say yours because hey, just look at your posts... anyway, i've always read with interest but never been a holder... until now... i'm in!

traded some SSS while the market woke up to the fact that these guys now are miners... and now everyone wants a piece... but with no details as to what they have their hands on, its all just talk.. time to bail before people wake up to that... in at 2.1c, out at 5.9c... could go longer but dont want to be caught with my pants down!

so yesterday i jumped on-board the ADI train yesterday at 13c

agent's posts speak for themselves... great looking set up. CP, $19m market cap, 3 wells on the way

good luck holders


----------



## Agentm

looks like the directors options were taken up, so that is out of the way..

bart, i have a few people i know looking around various wells atm. hopefully get a bit of an update on the wells. the photos in the presentation were showing a lot of works being done..


----------



## Agentm

looks very interesting at weston and kowalik


imho the wells are very close to being fracced, kowalik  has a coiled tubing unit on the hole and some tankers very close by.. acid frac bubba?

you can see weston is set up with a rig over the hole and looks close, with a lot of extra tank batteries set up at weston


kowalik













weston


----------



## OK2

Nice pictures.

Because I am a share holder does that mean I am also entitled to commission from the sale of the hay in the picture? 

It is looking more and more like "Texas Tea" as Uncle Jed from the Beverly Hillbillies would say.


----------



## moses

Hi, not wanting to spoil the fun (I hold ADI) but my reading of this chart doesn't look terribly inspiring. Volume in particular is low and the price seems to be settling around 13c for a while. Surely if we were very close to something good happening we'd start to see some action here...any thoughts?






Oh dear...the chart won't display...


----------



## Agentm

well moses, you have been around a long time so waiting a bit for a result should be a breeze 

eka has a market cap of $10 mill. $345K in the bank

adi has a market cap of $19 mill  so if you remove the $5mill cash, and assume nil value for the second yemen asset up for sale atm.. adi is getting only  $14 mill for the sugarkane

adi have double the exposure to the sugarkane than EKA,

$14mill for adi  vs $10mill for eka on the sugarkane aspect is an interesting valuation

there are 3 laterals to be fracced and 3 further free carried wells to be drilled by hilcorp.. 

adi have got some big expectations for the frac processes


----------



## jestex12

Texon Petroleum on the Eagle Ford dated Nov. 25, 2009:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091125/pdf/31m986hk945h52.pdf


----------



## Agentm

texon maps were extremely inaccurate. poorly presented, may post them later.

the ADI kennedy well is completely ready for a frac, nothing more to be done on that well at all imho.


----------



## Roux

AgentM I have been watching this thread for a sometime now and I am impressed with your knowledge.....great job on keeping us up to date on the sugarkane / eagleford play in this area

AgentM have you heard anything new on the EOG wells to the north... the last I heard is that their are 6 wells permitted around the milton #1 and 3 wells permitted around the lyssy #1.  The railroad commision production report shows the milton #1 to be a dog, and showing no production on the last report.  Is EOG reworking the well or recompleting the well?  

Also another tid bit I have heard from some of the Landmen around town here that Dan Hughes has partnered up with EOG on the Darlene #2 and have a JV together on the acreage that Dan Hughes currently has under lease.  Does anyone have any knowledge of this or are these just rumors?


----------



## Agentm

Roux said:


> AgentM I have been watching this thread for a sometime now and I am impressed with your knowledge.....great job on keeping us up to date on the sugarkane / eagleford play in this area
> 
> AgentM have you heard anything new on the EOG wells to the north... the last I heard is that their are 6 wells permitted around the milton #1 and 3 wells permitted around the lyssy #1.  The railroad commision production report shows the milton #1 to be a dog, and showing no production on the last report.  Is EOG reworking the well or recompleting the well?
> 
> Also another tid bit I have heard from some of the Landmen around town here that Dan Hughes has partnered up with EOG on the Darlene #2 and have a JV together on the acreage that Dan Hughes currently has under lease.  Does anyone have any knowledge of this or are these just rumors?





hey roux

not heard about the eog/dan hughes partnership, but i have contacts who could enlighten me, i may be able to find that out.

the lyssy wells have operations on them, and i wouldnt be concerned about a few low producing wells, eog is still leasing so they may not be turning on the taps yet. but i dont think that by the sheer numbers of eagleford wells they are drilling right now that eog is concerned about it. they will neeed to get the science right and perhaps dan huhes out of beeville are the ones to talk to..

the milton cluster have mostly been drilled, a new went in there and i think they are drilling in mcmullen atascosa and karnes county with the 3 or 4 rigs they use.

early days for them, they are looking at primarily an oil play in that karnes trough, as you know adi sit south of that in the prime acreages. where its gas/condensate.

that dan hughes well just outside of falls city, darlene, has been choked back i am told, so its sitting on 400 or 500 bopd there.. there is a permit in for a second well next to it. 

murphy started their drees well next to the river and close to bordovsky on friday.. and you would be seeing the night flares on bordovsky in any case, its not hard to miss my friends tell me..

conoco is busy, they are drilling the plomero well, and they are reworking marlene olsen with a thinner liner. 

kunde 3 is flaring as is kunde 1..

tcei has a lot of interesting people on board, and hilcorp are keen it seems.

market is pricing only 10% for adi right now on this play!  

pretty good odds for investors getting in.. 

patience needed for the longer term holders..

petrohawk presentation






[/IMG]


----------



## Agentm

*Koch Pipeline Co. LP in January plans to increase its crude oil pipeline transportation capacity by about 25 percent in Texas*, the company announced Monday.

*Koch will boost capacity to transport crude oil and gas condensates from the Eagle Ford shale formation, a South Texas natural gas field, to the Flint Hills Resources refinery in Corpus Christi.*

The company, a subsidiary of Koch Industries Inc., has about 540 miles of active crude oil transportation lines in Bastrop, Bee, Brooks, Caldwell, Calhoun, *Gonzales*, Fayette, Jim Wells, *Karnes*, Kleberg, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, Starr, Victoria and Wilson counties.

also a revised slide of petrohawk


----------



## Agentm

if you look  at this post from saf, there is a slide that pioneer puts out that clearly shows the oil | oil/condensate | dry gas zones

the third slide here,, that slide where it says oil/condensate.. thats adi acreages

azz holders should take note of their position, its clear their acreages are different to the likes of petrohawk, conoco, tcei/adi murphy and weber.. a point very much not liked by them.. but azz will in all likelihood face the issues of the likes of eog and dan hughes, where results are not clear yet from the wells drilled so far..



courtesy saf

Pioneer FBR Capital markets Investor Presentation Dec 1 , 2009.

Second permanent rig allocated to the programme. Also examining a JV which is clearly the way to proceed in view of the vastness of the discovery.



















http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9MzYwODMwfENoaWxkSUQ9MzU0MDYyfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1


----------



## gerkin02

Agentm,
           some solid research again.well done.

If you look at Petrohawks presentation at where they deliniate the eagle ford shale,their boundaries and segregations of the different hydrocarbons vary significantly from Pioneers.

El-Paso also has a different interpretation.

I dont know if anyone has a real handle on the size and/or distribution of the eagle ford shale.

I am assuming Halliburton has done many of horizontal fracs on producing eagle ford wells.They would probably have more idea than most.

I dont believe the edwards reef trend has any significance to the eagle ford shale other than running roughly parallel with it.

In my opinion it will be years still until a boundary of the play itself is determined and also the segregation of hydocarbon types.

2010 will certainly go a long way to opening the play up.

It was interesting to note in Pioneers latest presentation that the liquid richness in much of the eagle ford thus far,make it appear to be economically superior to almost any other shale play to date.

All the best.


----------



## noirua

Apologies for interrupting this busiest of threads on ASF.  I need to draw your attention to a best forum vote at The Bull.  ASFs vote has been in sharp decline from 48% and ASF desperately needs your vote at:  http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums

 Thanks!


----------



## adobee

so much information from the public yet so little from the company. ..
I wonder if we will see anything about the fracs pre christmas or if everyone will be packing up for festive season very shortly..


----------



## Agentm

gerkin02 said:


> Agentm,
> some solid research again.well done.
> 
> If you look at Petrohawks presentation at where they deliniate the eagle ford shale,their boundaries and segregations of the different hydrocarbons vary significantly from Pioneers.
> 
> El-Paso also has a different interpretation.
> 
> I dont know if anyone has a real handle on the size and/or distribution of the eagle ford shale.
> 
> I am assuming Halliburton has done many of horizontal fracs on producing eagle ford wells.They would probably have more idea than most.
> 
> I dont believe the edwards reef trend has any significance to the eagle ford shale other than running roughly parallel with it.
> 
> In my opinion it will be years still until a boundary of the play itself is determined and also the segregation of hydocarbon types.
> 
> 2010 will certainly go a long way to opening the play up.
> 
> It was interesting to note in Pioneers latest presentation that the liquid richness in much of the eagle ford thus far,make it appear to be economically superior to almost any other shale play to date.
> 
> All the best.




cant agree at all

i think your underestimating the knowledge and the years pioneer have been in the region.  they know the region very well, they understand the cretacious eagleford and edwards very well.. so far they have been accurate throughout on how they think the play looking. i think you may have misread petrohawk and their reasons for only drilling and leasing south of the edwards reef. surely its no coincidence??

there are no massive drilling programs in that oil corridor in mcmullen other than what azz is proposing. eog is drilling along it and getting their interpretations of it, and we know dan hughes got darlene to produce at about 400 bopd just north of the adi acres in the karnes trough. so its getting interesting imho.. real early days in that region..  gerkin, dont you think there is any significance in the petrohawk strategy of keeping south of that reef in lasalle mcmullen and live oak? wouldnt you think that hayes horizontal indicated what was going on?  imho the azz eagleford is very prospective future play in the oil corridor, and once technology is good enough in that corridor, it may be a lucrative play one day, but i equally believe there is not much known on how prospective all the acreages will be in that oil corridor.. other than what was learned in the hayes well..  its very early days and to interpret the azz acreages as similar to petrohawks as the azz spin, or perhaps your own spin on what azz is saying imho may well not necessarily equate with what the geology is going to deliver in that oil corridor.. but those hyped up announcements from azz are keeping the punters keen as anything imho..



adobee said:


> so much information from the public yet so little from the company. ..
> I wonder if we will see anything about the fracs pre christmas or if everyone will be packing up for festive season very shortly..




the jvp are waiting for the preparation to be finalised, there is nothing preventing a start on these laterals in the near term imho, all preparations on these laterals fall into line with previous announcements imho


----------



## gerkin02

In the next 3 months there will be significantly more data available in multiple locations about the eagle ford shale.

Now this data may not be publicly available(as has been the case in the past) although well and frac designs will incorporate the most relevent information pursuent to each area/well.

The companies performing the fracture stimulations are the wealth of knowledge about the play at this point.

all the best.


----------



## Agentm

conoco has approved their capital program for 2010, exploration into the eagleford is approved, which matches up with the local talk of many rigs moving in around january 2010....

keeping my money in the eagleford and i like the fact conoco see it as a part of their future,,


HOUSTON -  ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) today approved a 2010 capital program of $11.2 billion, representing a 10 percent decrease from estimated 2009 expenditures. Approximately 86 percent of the capital program will be in support of the company’s Exploration and Production (E&P) segment, while the Refining and Marketing (R&M) segment represents about 12 percent of the program. The 2010 program is consistent with the company’s recently announced plan to improve returns through increased capital discipline, asset sales and continued growth in shareholder distributions.

“Our planned 2010 capital program will advance existing exploration and production projects, while preserving the potential to develop the company’s large resource position in the future,” said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. “We intend to achieve our objectives of organically replacing reserves and increasing our upstream production from a reduced, more strategic asset base, consistent with our recently announced portfolio optimization plan.

“We look forward to discussing our 2010 capital, operating and financial plans in greater detail when we meet with the investment community next year.”

Exploration and Production

The 2010 capital program for E&P is approximately $9.7 billion, including capitalized interest of $0.5 billion and $0.7 billion for the company’s contributions to the FCCL business venture and loans to other affiliates. This program also includes about $1.4 billion for worldwide exploration.

In North America, the capital program is expected to total approximately $4.1 billion. Spending in North America is reduced, compared with prior years, with emphasis on the highest-graded production basins and opportunities.

    * In the U.S. Lower 48, capital funding will be prioritized on oil and certain natural gas assets that offer the highest potential returns, including ongoing development in the San Juan and Permian basins and the Bakken, Lobo and Barnett trends.
    * Spending in Canada will focus on existing oil sands projects and selective programs in the Western Canada gas basins, primarily on high-graded resource plays and on maintaining a substantial lease position for future development.
    * Spending in Alaska is expected to be directed toward development of the existing Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields, as well as the Alpine field and satellites on the Western North Slope.

In Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, the E&P capital program is expected to total about $5.6 billion.

    * Within the Asia Pacific region, funds will be used for further development of coalbed methane projects associated with the APLNG joint venture, as well as for the continued development of Bohai Bay in China, new fields offshore Malaysia, offshore Block B and onshore South Sumatra in Indonesia, and offshore Vietnam.
    * In the North Sea region, spending is planned for existing and new opportunities in the Greater Ekofisk Area, the Greater Britannia fields, various Southern North Sea assets, and development of the Jasmine discovery in the J Block and the Clair Ridge project.
    * Capital for the Middle East and Africa region is expected to be primarily directed toward completion of the Qatargas 3 project in Qatar, with remaining funds supporting onshore developments in Nigeria, Algeria and Libya.
    * Spending in the Russia and Caspian Sea region will primarily support continued development of the Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea.

Exploration will be focused on finding significant resources, advancing high-potential opportunities and appraisal of recent discoveries. Spending on wildcat wells will be directed to the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Australia’s Browse Basin, Kazakhstan’s Block N, Canada’s East Coast, offshore Indonesia and the North Sea. *The company also plans to progress exploration drilling in the Eagle Ford shale position in the U.S. Lower 48*, a coal seam gas play in China, and a shale gas play in Poland.

Refining and Marketing

The 2010 capital program for R&M is approximately $1.3 billion, with about $0.9 billion for its U.S. downstream businesses and $0.4 billion for International R&M. These funds will be used for projects related to sustaining and improving the existing business with a focus on safety, regulatory compliance, and reliability. As previously announced, the refinery upgrade project in Wilhelmshaven has been delayed.

Emerging Businesses and Corporate

The 2010 capital program for Emerging Businesses and Corporate is approximately $0.2 billion. The majority of the Emerging Businesses funding is for completion of the second phase of an expansion project at the company’s Immingham Combined Heat and Power plant in the United Kingdom, as well as for other Technology Research and Development spending.

In Corporate, capital expenditures are expected to be primarily for global information systems and services projects and corporate facilities.

ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with interests around the world. For more information, go to www.conocophillips.com.


----------



## choppy

The Edwards Reef trend has no bearing on the makeup of the gas (dry versus wet),  but it has a significant bearing on the thickness of the Eagleford.  The Eagleford generally thickens at least 1.5x when you cross the reef.  What effect the thickness will actually have on the EUR of the wells is yet to be determined.

In conventional reservoirs the thickness is directly proportional to the EUR, but in unconventional reservoirs it is more complicated than that due to the fact that you may or may not be draining the entire thickness of the reservoir.


----------



## Agentm

choppy, i am not convinced the azz acreages sit entirely in the condensate window, its very obvious that petrohawk have a distinct and deliberate preference for the acreages between the sligo and edwards reef. and are keeping a close watch on the acreages north of it... besides one horizontal near the azz wells, and the eog wells further north in mcmullen, its not entirely certain what the acreages are like, but imho  there is a strong preference shown by petrohawk for the acreages, including the awp acreages they recently acquired at about $3000 an acre.  i think its too early to determine what their region will achieve until there are some further wells drilled and extensive testing done to assess. i am sceptical on that part of the play being entirely in the condensate window myself, i tend to think the oil corridor has a potential to be prevalent in the northern aspect of mcmullen and perhaps as low as the edwards reef there..  what is very obvious in the azz acreages is that the eagleford appears to be a potentially active play.

this study is interesting in lavaca  

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/fritzetal/images/fritz-harris.pdf

also

Emerging Eagle Ford Shale In South Texas

This play is heating up more and more. It is larger than the active operators that are drilling the Eagle Ford are saying. It is not isolated only beneath the Edwards Reef trend in the downdip section. EOG and others are leasing in the middip and the updip section of the play. LaSalle, Mcmullen, and Atascosa are the three most active counties. There have been rumors that 2 wells have tested in the middip section of the play in excess of 1,600 BOPD with associated gas. This is the oil play for Texas.

Posted by Jurassic Exploration Inc on 14 September 2009

it seems to be active north of the reef and as pioneer points out, its trending towards an oil play the further north of the reef you travel

the pioneer slide imho demonstrates with fair accuracy the delineation between the dry gas window and the condensate window, particularly in the counties they are active in..


closer to home and east of the adi acreages in karnes county

pioneer put in their permit yesterday for the handy 1h well 1 mile south of bordovsky in the condensate window. 

eog put in two further permits for the harper units a few miles north of bordovsky..


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

The reason petrohawk want to stay downdip of the edwards reef is due to thickness of the eagleford.  They want to stay in the gas/condensate window, but also want to be in the thick.  I do agree that the further updip (north/northwest of the edwards reef) you get, the more likely you are to be in the oil window.  All of the wells EOG has drilled are in the oil window, along with the Dan Hughes wells, the new Dewbre Peeler well, and maybe even the Bordovsky well.  

It is unknown where the line between the oil and the gas/condensate window lies in LaSalle and McMullen counties, but it is definitely updip of the edwards reefs and downdip of the austin chalk oil production in northern LaSalle.  The line is probably somewhere around the EOG Hoff Ranch well.  What kind of rates are you hearing about from the Bordovsky well now?


----------



## Agentm

not hearing anything on the rates, but its clear the well was flaring day and night as late as last week.

eog put in further permit for their peeler ranch 11h well in atascosa. dewbre petroleum commenced drilling their vertical test well on dec 1st a few miles south of them also called peeler ranch

the conoco plomero well in live oak ran some intermediate casing at 10,768 feet a few days back

interesting interview with petrohawk ceo.. 

INTERVIEW: Petrohawk CEO: Not Eager For JV With Majors,Buyout 

petrohawk wants to capitalise on the shale..

also

HOUSTON, Dec. 3 -- Enterprise Products Partners LP expects to have its White Kitchen Lateral””a 62-mile, 16-in. OD natural gas pipeline that extends through the Eagle Ford shale in LaSalle and Webb Counties in Texas””in full service by the end of December. 


day in day out the eagleford is being mentioned in the oil sector, from pipleine contructions,  to cap ex forecasts by majors. market remains convinced adi is not in the money..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> not hearing anything on the rates, but its clear the well was flaring day and night as late as last week.
> 
> eog put in further permit for their peeler ranch 11h well in atascosa. dewbre petroleum commenced drilling their vertical test well on dec 1st a few miles south of them also called peeler ranch
> 
> the conoco plomero well in live oak ran some intermediate casing at 10,768 feet a few days back
> 
> interesting interview with petrohawk ceo..
> 
> INTERVIEW: Petrohawk CEO: Not Eager For JV With Majors,Buyout
> 
> petrohawk wants to capitalise on the shale..
> 
> also
> 
> HOUSTON, Dec. 3 -- Enterprise Products Partners LP expects to have its White Kitchen Lateral””a 62-mile, 16-in. OD natural gas pipeline that extends through the Eagle Ford shale in LaSalle and Webb Counties in Texas””in full service by the end of December.
> 
> 
> day in day out the eagleford is being mentioned in the oil sector, from pipleine contructions,  to cap ex forecasts by majors. market remains convinced adi is not in the money..




Why do you think the market feels that ADI isn't in the money Agentm?

Interesting how this would have to be one of the most posted threads. So much interest in the company & yet very little interest in volume & movement.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Why do you think the market feels that ADI isn't in the money Agentm?
> 
> Interesting how this would have to be one of the most posted threads. So much interest in the company & yet very little interest in volume & movement.




glad you appreciate the posts

the market values adi at about 10% success.. not a big endorsement of the play they are exploring.. and its obvious there is no belief that the conoco announcement yesterday to crank up the eagleford exploration in 2010 on their 300,000 acres - which sit either side of the adi acreages - validates any potential of the prospect.

the volume and movement was on the share some weeks back, this has stopped in the past weeks. its curious that adi traditionally turned over a lot of volume prior to operations commencing, i think with some of the jvp partners eka and aut getting overexcited and announcing mid november start times for the fracture stimulation of the 3 wells has caused some further disbelief

ground hog days continue on adi, i will post regional info and discuss adi as always, hope its not disturbing too many members on this forum..  

good luck to all holders


----------



## Adam A

Thanks for the updates Agent

Ive jumped back in with a small holding(it owes me)

quite exciting waiting for news,heres hoping for great results in the future


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> glad you appreciate the posts
> 
> the market values adi at about 10% success.. not a big endorsement of the play they are exploring.. and its obvious there is no belief that the conoco announcement yesterday to crank up the eagleford exploration in 2010 on their 300,000 acres - which sit either side of the adi acreages - validates any potential of the prospect.
> 
> the volume and movement was on the share some weeks back, this has stopped in the past weeks. its curious that adi traditionally turned over a lot of volume prior to operations commencing, i think with some of the jvp partners eka and aut getting overexcited and announcing mid november start times for the fracture stimulation of the 3 wells has caused some further disbelief
> 
> ground hog days continue on adi, i will post regional info and discuss adi as always, hope its not disturbing too many members on this forum..
> 
> good luck to all holders




Hi Agentm
How do you come to the conclusion that the market has about a 10% chance of it being successful? Also any idea as to when the results may come in regard to the three wells fract? I noticed you had taken ADI again in the December stock tipping competion. Hoping for an outcome soon?


----------



## adobee

All i can say is that its looking pretty awful at the moment and i cant see any support...  unless there is some good news out this isnt looking positive in the coming week ...

Still holding reluctantly ..


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Hi Agentm
> How do you come to the conclusion that the market has about a 10% chance of it being successful? Also any idea as to when the results may come in regard to the three wells fract? I noticed you had taken ADI again in the December stock tipping competion. Hoping for an outcome soon?




the  3 wells are not fracced, they are preparing them for  frac right now. when they commence that program there will be announcements made by the jvp..

adi announced they were likely to be in december, and from the photos and the reports i get there is nothing i can see that is out of order with their last announcement.. weston has to fill its dam, which it probably has, i thnk kennedy was good to go, and i think kowalik was pretty close like weston.

re taking the adi share last month and this month in the stock tipping comp,, eka and aut announced in their quarterly that the start of the fracs were mid nov..  i took it again in dec as i think they are closer to a start now than ever..

regarding any results, the wells will take 10 - 14 days to frac. then post that they will open them up an flow them onto production. what the flow rates will be will be announced in the post frac period as they all get hooked up onto production once they are cleaned up.. the jvp is just keen to get them all opened up and flowing. hilcorp will drill a further 3 wells that adi will be free carried on immediately in 2010. 

hilcorp a program already announced to the jvp of drilling new wells very early on in 2010, looks like conoco and tcei/hilcorp  will be drilling at the same time.

ground hog days until the frac commences unfortunately


adobee

nothing happens until the 3 fracs go ahead and the next wells are drilled free carried.   atm its groundhog days as before.. could change any time when the fracs begin


----------



## Hatchy

Does anyone know a little about the Hilcorp company? Past performance as a driller? I'd like to think ADI has teamed up with someone that's going to give some smashing results, not a company that's going to take advantage of the little aussies. 

As far as I can see there never has been an announcement that Mitsui has paid up on the yemen block 7 sale. Can anyone shed any further light? I wasn't at the AGM this may have been mentioned there?
Plenty to say that it's sold, just nothing that the money has arrived.


----------



## rock86

Hatchy said:


> Does anyone know a little about the Hilcorp company? Past performance as a driller? I'd like to think ADI has teamed up with someone that's going to give some smashing results, not a company that's going to take advantage of the little aussies.
> 
> As far as I can see there never has been an announcement that Mitsui has paid up on the yemen block 7 sale. Can anyone shed any further light? I wasn't at the AGM this may have been mentioned there?
> Plenty to say that it's sold, just nothing that the money has arrived.




Mate don't know that much about except they're the 3rd biggest private oil company in America (i think)). AgentM will definately fill you in on their background


----------



## sam76

Hilcorp Energy Company
Hilcorp was founded 20 years ago and is now one of the top 5 largest private E&P companies in the USA. The company has a number of domestic assets both on and offshore and has a demonstrable record of commercialising their investments. The company has an annual production in excess of 15 mmboe of oil and a staff of over 600 professionals, and is an experienced operator in the US.


----------



## Miner

I got these stock scans for ADI for four weeks.

Probably chartists will be able to infer them better. 

What is intriguing to me were, the trigger signs and the falling prices from 14 cents to 12.5 cents in last four weeks

Like many of you I am also looking for some good announcement hopefully before Christmas

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

local talk.. is that the bordovsky which had used a halliburton cobra frac, settled down to 1200 bopd..

that being the case it makes the well pay itself off in months. despite the difficulties and complexities of the newly developed frac processes

others have been using the petrohawk method of multistage fraccing and getting very reasonable results

the jvp has completely gone from underbalanced chalk completions looking for connectivity with natural fracture.. to the idea of fraccing into both zones

these upcoming fracs are monsters when dial compared to the previous mini frac in kennedy


conoco drilling plomero ranch in live oak
pioneer would have finished their well south of that


murphy is drilling drees 1h next to the conoco bordovsky well
dan hughes is drilling darleen 2h  a few miles north of kowalik


----------



## Roux

I have been told that Texas Crude just paid $900+ per ac for a 300 ac tract in the Odem survey Karnes County....this is in their core area of the Karnes Acreage....somebody must think they got something good going.

Also what do you think about EOG permiting 6 wells in the Milton/ Harper units......they (EOG) must be keeping something under raps ....if you look at the milton #1 on the RRC it has even stop producing but yet EOG likes it enough to have 5 more well permited and two of which i have heard are already drilled......FYI I have also heard that EOG told their land broker that they will have land work for the next 6-8 yrs in the area....Why would they not go more public with this area/play and their existing wells.....mmmmm the word with EOG in this part of the world wierd


----------



## Agentm

Roux said:


> I have been told that Texas Crude just paid $900+ per ac for a 300 ac tract in the Odem survey Karnes County....this is in their core area of the Karnes Acreage....somebody must think they got something good going.
> 
> Also what do you think about EOG permiting 6 wells in the Milton/ Harper units......they (EOG) must be keeping something under raps ....if you look at the milton #1 on the RRC it has even stop producing but yet EOG likes it enough to have 5 more well permited and two of which i have heard are already drilled......FYI I have also heard that EOG told their land broker that they will have land work for the next 6-8 yrs in the area....Why would they not go more public with this area/play and their existing wells.....mmmmm the word with EOG in this part of the world wierd





roux

i know that eog are doing well on some of their wells.

i hear some wells are doing ok in dewitt also

i am less concerned with adi than ever before. conoco will be bringing in more rigs in 2010 and may even get a farm out happening if they can get the right deal done.

eog will not discuss that oil play at all.. not while they are still leasing. and its possible petrohawk and a few others are also in there gathering acreages

looking forward to that frac program tcei/hilcorp are about to commence

best of luck


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> roux
> 
> i know that eog are doing well on some of their wells.
> 
> i hear some wells are doing ok in dewitt also
> 
> i am less concerned with adi than ever before. conoco will be bringing in more rigs in 2010 and may even get a farm out happening if they can get the right deal done.
> 
> eog will not discuss that oil play at all.. not while they are still leasing. and its possible petrohawk and a few others are also in there gathering acreages
> 
> looking forward to that frac program tcei/hilcorp are about to commence
> 
> best of luck




Hi Agentm

With no posting on ADI from you I thought your Chrisy Break has already started . and good to see you back in ADI play.

I was intrigued to find out there was one only trade for ADI today.

Is it loosing traders or investors' interest ? 

What do you think


----------



## jancha

Miner said:


> Hi Agentm
> 
> With no posting on ADI from you I thought your Chrisy Break has already started . and good to see you back in ADI play.
> 
> I was intrigued to find out there was one only trade for ADI today.
> 
> Is it loosing traders or investors' interest ?
> 
> What do you think




I reckon we should vote Agentm in on ADI's management team.
We might get some insight as to ADI's progress.


----------



## Miner

jancha said:


> I reckon we should vote Agentm in on ADI's management team.
> We might get some insight as to ADI's progress.




I fully support this with a variation. He should be in the Executive Management Team or in the Board. If the ADI share increase has any merit for its sheer technical strenght but also for the excellent research and some sort of fan club of investors created by Agentm. So he should be eligible for director's bonus and options.

Now as there is no free lunch we would expect that Agentm offers us discounted mates shares like other companies are doing .

Agentm - if you are reading this mail : Tell Us Deal or No Deal


----------



## Agentm

working hard with the burial of my mother.. wont be as available as before for the next week or so..


news will flow in due course

texas crude has listed a new permit in karnes county

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...cQuery=Y&name=EASLEY+28-1&univDocNo=485882388

EASLEY 28-1 1

its a 6330 foot lateral into the sugarkane

plans are obviously now in the pipeline to continue on as the jvp has announced previously, hilcorp are keen for some 10 wells in 2010.. to put in new permits this early is very curious


----------



## Adam A

Sorry to hear about your mum agentm,bad news, thanks for all your postings

Look forward to your return


----------



## Miner

Agentm

My condolences at the tragic loss of your mum.

Hope you will recover to normal and pray to God to rest her soul in the abode of immortals.

Regards


----------



## onthebeach

Hello all, 

Interesting following this thread. I am a landman with Dewbre Petroleum, and have been looking for any clues as to the success of the EOG Peeler Ranch wells. We are in the process of reviewing our cores from the Eagle Ford, but preliminary results look very promising. Initial log analysis through the section, which is typically not completely trustworthy, indicates roughly 20BCFE per square mile, with, I think, roughly 20% of that being recoverable. Core analysis should be complete around Christmas time. 

Word on the street is that EOG was drilling out their plugs post-frac, which of course is a good sign. Anyone else heard any news?

Thanks, 

Chris in Texas


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hello Chris in Texas good to have you here.

We all await confirmation on our Eagleford acres with great anticipation after a very very long wait for some of us.

AgentM has kept us inthralled and up to date on happenings in the area with his contacts and hard research work.

The big boys are definately interested in the play and would not suprise me to see the little Aussie JVP being taken over within the next 12 months.


----------



## onthebeach

Glad to be here. Didn't realize I wasn't the first Texan to invade!

Leasing is of course at full frenzy mode; word from most smaller operators is the opportunity will come to us via too much land leased too quickly. We farmed out from an operator out of Denver b/c they were about to let their lease expire...chances are good several of the bigger outfits will start farming out some of the less desirable acreage (to them, not us!) in the coming year-two years. 

I just want to know about this EOG Peeler well! They have quite a gate guard set up out there, and nobody's talking.


----------



## adobee

wow lots of positivie speculation here today ...  I would be happy to see any news out of the company before my holdings dwindle down to 6c.. updates seem very very slow ..


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> wow lots of positivie speculation here today ...  I would be happy to see any news out of the company before my holdings dwindle down to 6c.. updates seem very very slow ..




I gather your refering to this site and not the market.
 It seems any buy orders above 12.5c quickly get get sold back down. 
Nothing positive about that.


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> I gather your refering to this site and not the market.
> It seems any buy orders above 12.5c quickly get get sold back down.
> Nothing positive about that.




Not at all, but this isn't really important at the moment, it is only going to be relevant until the frac results, which will most likely either send ADI quickly back to around half its current share price or quickly to double or more. If you buy at the moment you are putting your hopes on the frac result. The people wanting to sell out at 12.5c or so are basically deciding not to take that chance. Once the frac results are announced it will be an entirely different situation, it will go from hoping for a good result to attempting to calculate exactly what the result is worth. I have been waiting for a few weeks now, and must admit, it is getting boring!


----------



## jancha

Sdajii said:


> Not at all, but this isn't really important at the moment, it is only going to be relevant until the frac results, which will most likely either send ADI quickly back to around half its current share price or quickly to double or more. If you buy at the moment you are putting your hopes on the frac result. The people wanting to sell out at 12.5c or so are basically deciding not to take that chance. Once the frac results are announced it will be an entirely different situation, it will go from hoping for a good result to attempting to calculate exactly what the result is worth. I have been waiting for a few weeks now, and must admit, it is getting boring!




A few weeks!! Try a few years.
So holders selling @ around the 13c to 14c mark dont want to take the risk? Why would you buy it in the 1st place. 
This is exactly what this type of share is. Spec high risk.
My thoughts would be more along the lines of share holders being impatient & selling the moment it gets above 13c.
I cant see you sticking around if you've only been waiting a few weeks.


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> A few weeks!! Try a few years.
> So holders selling @ around the 13c to 14c mark dont want to take the risk? Why would you buy it in the 1st place.
> This is exactly what this type of share is. Spec high risk.
> My thoughts would be more along the lines of share holders being impatient & selling the moment it gets above 13c.
> I cant see you sticking around if you've only been waiting a few weeks.




I suppose it depends on your own strategy and desires. I bought in during November hoping for/expecting a frac result in November. Now I am expecting one in December. If it turns out to be January/February, so be it.

You are right, I don't expect to be sticking around for a few years, and yes, that means that if they end up being $5 per share in a few years I won't be reaping the rewards. By the same token, I haven't already been waiting around for a few years and won't have to wait a few more. My profit (or loss) will be less, but it will take less time to get there. Both strategies have their merits. Having said that, there are others I hold with a longer term view, and if things go in the right direction I may decide to stick around for x years, but at this point it isn't my plan.

Your thoughts are similar to mine really re 'being impatient and selling now rather than waiting for the next frac result which is due soon'. Obviously these are (at least predominantly) the people who have not been sitting on them for years; that sort of investor would be hanging on right now, just before a fairly big announcement is to be made. The frac is expected in December, so it isn't far off in anyone's timeframe other than daytraders, who presumably wouldn't be touching this one (at least at the moment), so, getting out at this point, just before an announcement, is a decision to avoid a particular risk (the imminent frac). A lot of the ones selling now probably got in during the recent spike to about 18c and they are selling out now because they were expecting an announcement sooner.


----------



## onthebeach

Just an FYI guys:

Most operators aren't going to frac at year end, especially if they are optimistic, due to taxes. We are taxed for a full year based on initial production, when initial flow rates are obviously higher. Always better to wait until Jan 1.


----------



## jestex12

Hey Chris,

Glad to see you join!  I've been monitoring the south texas for well over a year now.  I have land in the Nordheim area.  I've seen some recent permits by Winn, GeoSouthern, etc. Have you seen any other pickup in this area or heard any news in the Nordheim/Dewitt area??


----------



## onthebeach

jestex, 

I know that that area is soundly within the "band" from west to east that stretches up into Lavaca county, ultimately. I'm shocked you haven't been leased or at least approached for a lease...

The only things I know about that area are that the courthouse has been extremely active for a couple of years now, and speculation is that most of that has been by/through Pioneer, who has a pretty solid interest through the area.


----------



## jestex12

Morning Chris,

My families land has been leased my apologizes for leaving that out.  I was just wondering what the progress in the area is.  More specifically my families land is about 5 miles south west of Nordheim.  The reason for my inquiry is because I live in Southern California and do not frequent the area. I try and make it out to the area every 6 months.  I was there in April and have noticed substantial activity just north of our land.  Just curious of any word on the street.  Any info is humbly appreciated.  In advance thanks!


----------



## Miner

jestex12 said:


> Morning Chris,
> 
> My families land has been leased my apologizes for leaving that out.  I was just wondering what the progress in the area is.  More specifically my families land is about 5 miles south west of Nordheim.  The reason for my inquiry is because I live in Southern California and do not frequent the area. I try and make it out to the area every 6 months.  I was there in April and have noticed substantial activity just north of our land.  Just curious of any word on the street.  Any info is humbly appreciated.  In advance thanks!




Hi Jetsex12

Understand your concern for your family properties in Southern California.

Probably avoiding the SELL of family jewels you may consider using  PM mail box than using the open forum. Just a suggestion to keep your privacy intact and letting us to continue to play with ADI postings. 

Regards


----------



## Agentm

thanks for the kind thoughts.. will be many sad days to come i feel..



onthebeach said:


> Hello all,
> 
> Interesting following this thread. I am a landman with Dewbre Petroleum, and have been looking for any clues as to the success of the EOG Peeler Ranch wells. We are in the process of reviewing our cores from the Eagle Ford, but preliminary results look very promising. Initial log analysis through the section, which is typically not completely trustworthy, indicates roughly 20BCFE per square mile, with, I think, roughly 20% of that being recoverable. Core analysis should be complete around Christmas time.
> 
> Word on the street is that EOG was drilling out their plugs post-frac, which of course is a good sign. Anyone else heard any news?
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> Chris in Texas




hello chris

not heard anything on peeler atm, keeping a close watch on all eog wells, i think in the coming 2 weeks i may find out more on a few of the eog sites



onthebeach said:


> Glad to be here. Didn't realize I wasn't the first Texan to invade!
> 
> Leasing is of course at full frenzy mode; word from most smaller operators is the opportunity will come to us via too much land leased too quickly. We farmed out from an operator out of Denver b/c they were about to let their lease expire...chances are good several of the bigger outfits will start farming out some of the less desirable acreage (to them, not us!) in the coming year-two years.
> 
> I just want to know about this EOG Peeler well! They have quite a gate guard set up out there, and nobody's talking.




plenty of texans post here and many locals are keeping a close watch on progress throughout..

if you look at the antares announcement to the the asx recently they claim the hundley wells have an oil discovery yet i have not seen a single word uttered from eog on those wells. still searching for clues on where that data came from, eog have yet to reply to my email for clarification




onthebeach said:


> Just an FYI guys:
> 
> Most operators aren't going to frac at year end, especially if they are optimistic, due to taxes. We are taxed for a full year based on initial production, when initial flow rates are obviously higher. Always better to wait until Jan 1.




thanks for that information, i am not entirely sure if the tax issue is of primary concern to the jvp, but you may be well be right on this, i was under the impression a december start was still likely.. but january is obviously not out of contention



jestex12 said:


> Hey Chris,
> 
> Glad to see you join!  I've been monitoring the south texas for well over a year now.  I have land in the Nordheim area.  I've seen some recent permits by Winn, GeoSouthern, etc. Have you seen any other pickup in this area or heard any news in the Nordheim/Dewitt area??




jess more permits are going in in that region recently, i think a few are eagleford possibilites



jestex12 said:


> Morning Chris,
> 
> My families land has been leased my apologizes for leaving that out.  I was just wondering what the progress in the area is.  More specifically my families land is about 5 miles south west of Nordheim.  The reason for my inquiry is because I live in Southern California and do not frequent the area. I try and make it out to the area every 6 months.  I was there in April and have noticed substantial activity just north of our land.  Just curious of any word on the street.  Any info is humbly appreciated.  In advance thanks!




jestex

pioneer spud of the pickett well 3.0 miles in a NE direction from YORKTOWN took place on the 5th dec.. it will be a eagelford completion.


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> thanks for the kind thoughts.. will be many sad days to come i feel..
> 
> 
> 
> hello chris
> 
> not heard anything on peeler atm, keeping a close watch on all eog wells, i think in the coming 2 weeks i may find out more on a few of the eog sites
> 
> 
> 
> plenty of texans post here and many locals are keeping a close watch on progress throughout..
> 
> if you look at the antares announcement to the the asx recently they claim the hundley wells have an oil discovery yet i have not seen a single word uttered from eog on those wells. still searching for clues on where that data came from, eog have yet to reply to my email for clarification
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thanks for that information, i am not entirely sure if the tax issue is of primary concern to the jvp, but you may be well be right on this, i was under the impression a december start was still likely.. but january is obviously not out of contention
> 
> 
> 
> jess more permits are going in in that region recently, i think a few are eagleford possibilites
> 
> 
> 
> jestex
> 
> pioneer spud of the pickett well 3.0 miles in a NE direction from YORKTOWN took place on the 5th dec.. it will be a eagelford completion.




Welcome Agentm you back in ADI forum

It was a bit less exciting with the absence of your postings.

Hope you are recovering fast and returning to normalcy

Take care and all the best for a better New Year.


----------



## Sdajii

onthebeach said:


> Just an FYI guys:
> 
> Most operators aren't going to frac at year end, especially if they are optimistic, due to taxes. We are taxed for a full year based on initial production, when initial flow rates are obviously higher. Always better to wait until Jan 1.




That's interesting, thanks  That being the case, why would they have been talking about fracs in November/December? If what you say is correct, perhaps they have some reason to have people expecting fracs too soon (???) I suppose that is already what they seem to have done, so a bit longer would make sense.


----------



## Wysiwyg

This may seem a bit cynical but the small Aussie oil/gas companies appear to be taking Australian dollars to pay their U.S. drillers and executives and effectively transferring Australian dollars to the U.S. while the *mug shareholders in Australia keep throwing money into  hastily depleting oil/gas fields with the hope some other mug will push the share price up when the drill gets a sniff of gas.*

Aussie oil and gas companies in Texas and surrounds are a joke. Sugarloaf being squeezed for every last drop. Very sad.


----------



## nioka

Wysiwyg said:


> This may seem a bit cynical but the small Aussie oil/gas companies appear to be taking Australian dollars to pay their U.S. drillers and executives and effectively transferring Australian dollars to the U.S. while the *mug shareholders in Australia keep throwing money into  hastily depleting oil/gas fields with the hope some other mug will push the share price up when the drill gets a sniff of gas.*
> 
> Aussie oil and gas companies in Texas and surrounds are a joke. Sugarloaf being squeezed for every last drop. Very sad.




As I understand it, the "Small aussie companies" are free carried by an american firm that has farmed in to the Sugarloaf. So now, hopefully, it is US dollars being spent for the benefit of those "small Aussie companies" and their shareholders of which I am one hopefull and holding a good number of shares.

As for sugarloaf being squeezed for every last drop, I hope that happens, that it continues for a very long time and there is plenty of oil and gas to be squeezed out.


----------



## Agentm

Wysiwyg said:


> This may seem a bit cynical but the small Aussie oil/gas companies appear to be taking Australian dollars to pay their U.S. drillers and executives and effectively transferring Australian dollars to the U.S. while the *mug shareholders in Australia keep throwing money into  hastily depleting oil/gas fields with the hope some other mug will push the share price up when the drill gets a sniff of gas.*
> 
> Aussie oil and gas companies in Texas and surrounds are a joke. Sugarloaf being squeezed for every last drop. Very sad.




i agree that many aussie small cap drillers are a joke, particularly ones that pay their executives millions upon millions each year, are poorly managed and are only in it for a fat salary.. many are not run by geologists and oilmen, and make wild claims, often they are bankers or some other profession and have NFI how to present a asx release with any honesty and integrity, and many have nfi about the industry they are in. 

in regards to this jvp, the 3 involved all share a similar resolve, to not rip off their shareholders and to make this amazing play one that will reward the LTH

there is no hype, no risk of the mug investor not being bamboozled by garbage announcements and false claims.

wysiwyg i agree that the small cap oil explorers have skinned many a punter, but i dont think your post demonstrated any evidence of how this jvp is doing what the others are doing. can you elaborate on what you think is out of the ordinary with adi?

if you check the recent annual reports you will see how these guys are paying themselves very small salaries, are not loading up with free shares and options and have maintained great value for their respective companies throughout this discovery

the eagleford play is a reality now.. the sugarkane in the adi acreages are even more prospective that ever

kowalik in the past few days. getting busy there













thanks for the kind words miner,  i put my mother to her final rest this morning.

all those who pm'ed me i thank you also


----------



## onthebeach

Interesting car ride with a source (to remain nameless) working for EOG on the Peeler wells. They have commenced drilling a 3rd horizontal, between the monitor well and the initial horizontal. We should have our core analysis any time now...will let you know!


----------



## Agentm

onthebeach said:


> Interesting car ride with a source (to remain nameless) working for EOG on the Peeler wells. They have commenced drilling a 3rd horizontal, between the monitor well and the initial horizontal. We should have our core analysis any time now...will let you know!




hey onthebeach

i saw that antares recently declared that eog had an oil discovery in hundley on page 3 of their release last week.  they did not quote any sources nor any press releases from eog i noticed.. 

it was a yellowrose operational update






i emailed eog and asked when they announced hundley publicly and for a copy of the release, as its a pretty big thing imho to have a oil discovery on trend. i know eog have been saying in their last Q&A with the CEO that they would not discuss anything on the eagleford and were not releasing anything on the eagleford while they were leasing

this is their reply to my email


"EOG has not disclosed any additional information on the Eagleford. 
Thank you for sending the Antares Energy press release. "


try and figure that out????

i gather that eog are not talking about their well at all but AZZ is claiming a discovery for them.. this is getting stranger by the day?


----------



## Speculator

Hey guys loving your work

I look forward to each of your new posts Agent and Minor, have found them to be helpful and as unbiased as one can be.

As I am still on my L's I was hoping that I might pick your brains as to how you intend to play ADI if we do get the good news were all hoping for.

Let me be clear I'm not asking for advice but rather am interested in gaining knowledge about the options available to us should the SP start rolling.

As I see it each exit strategy has pros and cons, so I guess I'm trying to figure out the best one for this situation... if you feel you have helpful suggestions I'm all ears but as always I will DMOR.

The two main strats I can think of are to either simply hold and ride for as long as possible... say a predetermind amount of time corresponding to your understanding of where the market and this sector are headed.

Or use TA as best possible and exit after the initial major run.

I guess I'm asking everyones understanding of how a positive result will affect the SP both short and long term.

I assume it would also depend on your investment style/portfolio and cash flow.

If this post was totally noob my apologies.

Looking forward to hearing from you, Cheers.


----------



## jestex12

Very interesting read imho regarding emerging natural gas


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_us_energy_shift


----------



## Agentm

frac program and next well to happen before all three fracs have finished

22 December 2009

Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000

Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following update on preparations within the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) for the first phase of the farm-in work program as outlined in recent announcements.
*The first of the three existing horizontal wells to be stimulated will be the Kowalik #1H well and the equipment and services are scheduled to be on site to commence operations on 28 December 2009.*

The horizontal section in the well has approximately 3,800 ft of slotted liner and then a further 850 ft of conventional solid liner in place. The plan is to stimulate the slotted section with a single large treatment and the conventional solid section of the liner will be treated in four stages with an isolation plug between each one. This program will take approximately seven
days to complete and the well will then be cleaned up and flowed to sales.
The stimulation approach to be used on the Kowalik #1H well is dictated by the slotted liner in place in the well and whilst it differs from our preferred stimulation program planned for the  other wells, it is expected to improve upon the productivity observed to date.

*The fracture stimulations at Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H are presently scheduled to commence at the end of January 2010 and early February 2010, respectively.* The timing of these operations has been impacted by the availability of fracture stimulation equipment as a result of the ramp up in activity within the Eagle Ford Shale trend.

As these wells have cemented solid liners in place they will be stimulated in stages along their length with 14 and 13 stages, respectively. It is anticipated that it will take approximately 10 - 14 days to complete the stimulation operations on each well.

*Work has now commenced in preparation for the drilling of the first new Sugarloaf well as part of the farmout program that was announced on 21 September 2009. It is anticipated that the first well will spud in early 2010, ahead of the completion of the frac program on the existing three wells.*

A further announcement will be made once fracture stimulation operations commence at the Kowalik #1H well.


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> frac program and next well to happen before all three fracs have finished
> 
> 22 December 2009
> 
> Company Announcements Platform
> Australian Stock Exchange Limited
> Exchange Centre
> 20 Bond Street
> SYDNEY NSW 2000
> 
> Via ASX Online
> 
> SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
> 
> Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following update on preparations within the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) for the first phase of the farm-in work program as outlined in recent announcements.
> *The first of the three existing horizontal wells to be stimulated will be the Kowalik #1H well and the equipment and services are scheduled to be on site to commence operations on 28 December 2009.*
> 
> The horizontal section in the well has approximately 3,800 ft of slotted liner and then a further 850 ft of conventional solid liner in place. The plan is to stimulate the slotted section with a single large treatment and the conventional solid section of the liner will be treated in four stages with an isolation plug between each one. This program will take approximately seven
> days to complete and the well will then be cleaned up and flowed to sales.
> The stimulation approach to be used on the Kowalik #1H well is dictated by the slotted liner in place in the well and whilst it differs from our preferred stimulation program planned for the  other wells, it is expected to improve upon the productivity observed to date.
> 
> *The fracture stimulations at Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H are presently scheduled to commence at the end of January 2010 and early February 2010, respectively.* The timing of these operations has been impacted by the availability of fracture stimulation equipment as a result of the ramp up in activity within the Eagle Ford Shale trend.
> 
> As these wells have cemented solid liners in place they will be stimulated in stages along their length with 14 and 13 stages, respectively. It is anticipated that it will take approximately 10 - 14 days to complete the stimulation operations on each well.
> 
> *Work has now commenced in preparation for the drilling of the first new Sugarloaf well as part of the farmout program that was announced on 21 September 2009. It is anticipated that the first well will spud in early 2010, ahead of the completion of the frac program on the existing three wells.*
> 
> A further announcement will be made once fracture stimulation operations commence at the Kowalik #1H well.




Damn

I thought for a change I will be smart and post this announcement before Agentm does. But Agentm probably sleeps at Sugarloaf and never misses a drop of penny in ADI.

Thanks mate, so I can sleep well with you in the door. Just wake me up when ADI rises at 20 cents following the announcement on fracture simulation operations at Kowalik and spudding of first well in early 2010.


----------



## estseon

Speculator said:


> Hey guys loving your work
> 
> I look forward to each of your new posts Agent and Minor, have found them to be helpful and as unbiased as one can be.
> 
> As I am still on my L's I was hoping that I might pick your brains as to how you intend to play ADI if we do get the good news were all hoping for.
> 
> Let me be clear I'm not asking for advice but rather am interested in gaining knowledge about the options available to us should the SP start rolling.
> 
> As I see it each exit strategy has pros and cons, so I guess I'm trying to figure out the best one for this situation... if you feel you have helpful suggestions I'm all ears but as always I will DMOR.
> 
> The two main strats I can think of are to either simply hold and ride for as long as possible... say a predetermind amount of time corresponding to your understanding of where the market and this sector are headed.
> 
> Or use TA as best possible and exit after the initial major run.
> 
> I guess I'm asking everyones understanding of how a positive result will affect the SP both short and long term.
> 
> I assume it would also depend on your investment style/portfolio and cash flow.
> 
> If this post was totally noob my apologies.
> 
> Looking forward to hearing from you, Cheers.





Hey, Speculator,

We now have a bit of a timeline.

I have a firm plan but it's always subject to revision in the light of actual share price movement.

I will sell at least 1/3rd of my stock for AUD 2 or more and probably the balance for AUD 4 or more.

It's the variables that I have trouble with:

Flow rates
Reserves estimates (possibly after completion and testing of 3rd new well)
Development plan (by JVP)
Big Oil Co interest - Exxon may be satiated but what about Centrica, for instance?
Projections for gas/light oil prices (market perception of such is more important)
Renewed confidence and enthusiasm for ADI
"Other opportunities" that ADI may be looking at.

Plug estimates of these into a spreadsheet and you will get something only just a little more reliable than the global temperature projections being produced by a lot of expensive machinery all round the developed world. Seeing as there is still no explanation of "the little ice age" that froze the Thames and wiped out the Norsemen settlements in Greenland (and, apparently, heralded the Black Death), I am a little cynical about people who can't explain the past climate claiming ability to reliably project the future. But, if it improves the market for our gas, bring it on.....


----------



## onthebeach

EOG permitted a 4th Peeler horizontal yesterday. This is getting good. We have preliminary sidewall core analysis back but we still don't have total organic compounds/etc, so the information we do have only tells us that we have ~150' of (very slightly) permeable shale in the EagleFord. Stay tuned!


----------



## Miner

onthebeach said:


> EOG permitted a 4th Peeler horizontal yesterday. This is getting good. We have preliminary sidewall core analysis back but we still don't have total organic compounds/etc, so the information we do have only tells us that we have ~150' of (very slightly) permeable shale in the EagleFord. Stay tuned!




Buddy On The Beach thanks for the optimism.

But who are WE  here ? You while watching on the beach , ADI directors, punters, ASF people or just the current shareholders (assuming you are also in the share holder club).

Let ADI rise against the tide and WE (the current shareholders and believers) are happy Chappy


----------



## jancha

Miner said:


> Buddy On The Beach thanks for the optimism.
> 
> But who are WE  here ? You while watching on the beach , ADI directors, punters, ASF people or just the current shareholders (assuming you are also in the share holder club).
> 
> Let ADI rise against the tide and WE (the current shareholders and believers) are happy Chappy




Looks like the tides coming in on speculation of ADI latest annoucement. Hopefully it's a king tide.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Looks like the tides coming in on speculation of ADI latest annoucement. Hopefully it's a king tide.




hilcorp are about to embark on a 10 well drilling campaign the first 3 or which will be free carried for adi. all in 2010

it is clear the first well will be spudded in early 2010, very possibly in january and feb the latest

the current frac ops on the 3 wells will mean immediate revenue for adi

the farm in deal was designed to make things happen, to explore and develop the entire play. and hilcorp has the capacity to make it happen.

very interesting days ahead now.


----------



## estseon

Happy Christmas to one and all and fingers crossed for a wealthy 2010.

The new design wells will be the ones to watch, IMO. From the news releases it sounds as though expectations for Kowalik are a little subdued. But a good result from the mini multi-frac of the short cemented liner section might herald good prospects for Weston.


----------



## Agentm

have a great christmas estseon

at least on this forum there are not clowns signing their forum names at the end of each post, trying to sound like know alls and actually knowing zip, and constantly degrading a company day and night. its a great forum here with well managed moderators keeping things in check..

enjoy the great day tomorrow and the new year..

to all holders in adi, with the 3 wells about to be stimulated, that will achieve some positive momentum, and its obvious that there are many well permits being redesigned and planned for 2010. 10 are scheduled by hilcorp

adi is definitely in a position where they can afford to stay in this play, at a manageable level and have not the issues of overreaching their ability to fund the future exploration and development. as much as many many opportunities have presented to adi to expand into the sugarkane, with more acreages, and higher %, adi have steadfastly kept their approach to the play in a  very level headed manner..

keeping my cash in this one while tcei and hilcorp explore, and while conoco keeps its objective on the play in mind as a major exploration program for the coming years..

merry christmas all..


----------



## Agentm

kowalik 24 hours ago.. 

activity on kennedy atm also, just preparatory works

nice to have kowalik frac underway this week.


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> kowalik 24 hours ago..
> 
> activity on kennedy atm also, just preparatory works
> 
> nice to have kowalik frac underway this week.
> 
> 
> Nice pics Agentm.
> Just out of curiousity where did you get them from?
> 3 announcements to look forward to.
> A bit like a baseball game. 3 wells & 3 strkes your out. (well i'm out) Hopefully 3 home runs with this.
> Either way at least it's happening.
> Exciting times ahead.


----------



## Agentm

good friend of mine in houston, who is a ranch owner very close by.

was there a few days back..  took out some time to take the photos, very much appreciated

30 December 2009

Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

*COMMENCEMENT OF KOWALIK #1H FRACTURE STIMULATION PROGRAM*


Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) advises that fracture stimulation operations on the Kowalik #1H well commenced on 28 December 2009 (US CST), with the stimulation of approximately 3,800 feet of the slotted liner section presently underway.


*Following stimulation of this section with a single large treatment, the remaining 850 ft of conventional solid liner will be treated in four stages with an isolation plug between each one.*


*This program will take approximately seven days to complete *following which the well will be cleaned up, completed for production and flowed to sales.

Further details of this operation were provided as part of the ASX release dated 22 December 2009 which is available on the Companys website at www.adelphienergy.com.au.
A further announcement is expected to be made upon the completion of this fracture stimulation operation on the Kowalik #1H well.
__________________________________________________
Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.




its been going for a day now.. practically 2..  so 5 days and they clean it up and produce..   monday - tuesday its all done..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> good friend of mine in houston, who is a ranch owner very close by.
> 
> was there a few days back..  took out some time to take the photos, very much appreciated
> 
> 30 December 2009
> 
> Company Announcements Platform
> Australian Stock Exchange Limited
> Exchange Centre
> 20 Bond Street
> SYDNEY NSW 2000
> Via ASX Online
> 
> *COMMENCEMENT OF KOWALIK #1H FRACTURE STIMULATION PROGRAM*
> 
> 
> Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) advises that fracture stimulation operations on the Kowalik #1H well commenced on 28 December 2009 (US CST), with the stimulation of approximately 3,800 feet of the slotted liner section presently underway.
> 
> 
> *Following stimulation of this section with a single large treatment, the remaining 850 ft of conventional solid liner will be treated in four stages with an isolation plug between each one.*
> 
> 
> *This program will take approximately seven days to complete *following which the well will be cleaned up, completed for production and flowed to sales.
> 
> Further details of this operation were provided as part of the ASX release dated 22 December 2009 which is available on the Companys website at www.adelphienergy.com.au.
> A further announcement is expected to be made upon the completion of this fracture stimulation operation on the Kowalik #1H well.
> __________________________________________________
> Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> its been going for a day now.. practically 2..  so 5 days and they clean it up and produce..   monday - tuesday its all done..




Yes it nice to see a visual of a project coming along.
Thanks for passing it on & sharing with other ASF users.


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> 3 announcements to look forward to.
> A bit like a baseball game. 3 wells & 3 strkes your out. (well i'm out) Hopefully 3 home runs with this.
> Either way at least it's happening.
> Exciting times ahead.




Cute analogy.

We still don't know if it's going to go good or bad, but at least we have a timeframe, and the exciting times are now very close! I see the speculation has pushed the share price back up (though still below what I paid!). Not long now before it is either much higher or much lower


----------



## estseon

Best wishes for a happy and prosperous new year to all and special thanks to agentm for his tireless research and for sharing it with us.

A poster on ADVFN has reported that TCEI has finally secured approval for Easley 28-1.

Hopefully we are now at the end of the beginning.


----------



## Father Ted

Estseon,

"_That poster_" on ADVFN, would like to wish you, Agentm and all those who are still with very much with _The Kane_, a healthy and prosperous New Year.

all the best

Father Ted


----------



## Agentm

the first stage is nearing its completion

while the first frac on the slotted liner was underway, a second frac crew pulls up ready to go in and set up after the first crew leaves

kowalik

about 48 hours ago


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> the first stage is nearing its completion
> 
> while the first frac on the slotted liner was underway, a second frac crew pulls up ready to go in and set up after the first crew leaves
> 
> kowalik
> 
> about 48 hours ago




That's exciting stuff Agentm. 
As Big Kev would say " I'm Exicited"
I just hope ADI shares dont end up where he did.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> That's exciting stuff Agentm.
> As Big Kev would say " I'm Exicited"
> I just hope ADI shares dont end up where he did.




why is it exciting?

its just a detail of the ops

big kev imho has zip to do with the ops in karnes

pretty weird comment i think.. 

whats your point here???


----------



## estseon

Father Ted said:


> Estseon,
> 
> "_That poster_" on ADVFN, would like to wish you, Agentm and all those who are still with very much with _The Kane_, a healthy and prosperous New Year.
> 
> all the best
> 
> Father Ted




Sorry Father - didn't mean any offense - just had not seen you post on this site. Very grateful for your research contribution.

A happy and prosperous 2010 to you, fellow ADI investors and other posters on this BB.


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> why is it exciting?
> 
> its just a detail of the ops
> 
> big kev imho has zip to do with the ops in karnes
> 
> pretty weird comment i think..
> 
> whats your point here???




It maybe just a detail of the ops to you but for me it's showing the depth of activity going on there.
I'm excited with the prospect of good news within the next week.
Whats my point here? 
Does everything have to have a point?


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> It maybe just a detail of the ops to you but for me it's showing the depth of activity going on there.
> I'm excited with the prospect of good news within the next week.
> Whats my point here?
> Does everything have to have a point?




sorry about that post the other day. my apologies. just a bad day/year for me..

its going to be very interesting for many as to whether this damaged well can perform to its clean up ip that it had such a long time ago before the massive mud hits and the disaster that ensued with the clean up of that by pumping the mud back into the formation..

the excitement will be building for many holders no doubt once these ops have gotten through to the final stages and they start drilling out the plugs and getting all the sections to flow, with that will come some intense flaring and following that some reporting on the ip..

the rrc just gets more permits, eog are very very active and constantly drill, and despite azz declaring a discovery for eog resources in mcmullen, the company itself has yet to confirm officially to me nor to anyone else what their interest is in the eagleford, but unofficially i am hearing very high numbers.

whether we can believe the market which has priced the sugarkane at a very conservative price of about 10% of its immediate potential, we will inevitably see punters become warmed to the share and see its value if the tcei hilcorp fracs become a commercial reality.

when you consider there was just a massive stimulation of 3800 of chalks and now some 850 feet of well will get a 4 stage multifrac, theres reason to have some mild optimism, whether its outcome can remain at a market priced 10% chance or not will soon be known..

there is another small cap oiler harping on about the eagelford having some 100% success rate in with wells drilled into that formation, that kinda bodes well for kennedy which is deemed to be sitting too low in the chalks and very likely to be in the eagleford shale also..

good luck to all holders


----------



## Lucky_Country

Well is tomorrow D day for results on Kowalik ?

Its been a long wait for this to come to fruition and many have held right the way through and have topped up at very low prices.

I for one will be immensely looking forward to positive results wether it be tomorrow or sometime during the week.

Operations are definately ramping up an with a partner like Hilcorp the seem very keen on getting things moving !

Could be a great 6 months with ADI


----------



## adobee

I am just really excited that there is something happening here... good or bad we will have some market moving news so I can expect some action...  Things certainly heating up in ADI...


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> I am just really excited that there is something happening here... good or bad we will have some market moving news so I can expect some action...  Things certainly heating up in ADI...





yeah its interesting all right

i have been told there was a pretty huge frac operation that took place when the multistage was done..

there is talk of flaring being seen at kowalik, but this is not something that is has been seen first hand from the people i really trust  in terms of information flow, but if its accurate then its certainly promising

it would indicate that the frac is most probably completed and the well is the process of plugs being removed and cleaning up.. there is usually a lot of flaring during that phase, but the well is hooked up to  pipeline, so production can be commenced during clean up also 

 its really guessing atm, but i would be pleased if the well is cleaning up and producing..

good luck to all holders

and its all imho and dyor.. info is very much unconfirmed and very much second hand.. may know more tomorrow if the jvp does not announce beforehand in any case


----------



## EEE

Hi All,

Just a quick couple of questions as I am trying to develop an exit strategy for ADI but lack the knowledge that numerous other posters on this thread possess of the specific oil and gas industry (you all know who you are and I along with everyone else thank you for sharing your thoughts and keeping us all up to date on a regular basis. Of course an honourable mention goes out to Agent M)

I bought my first batch of ADI in Nov 2006 for 0.625c, rode them up to .88 cents and back down to what they are today. My faith in the share has been rocked a number of times as I'm sure a lot of peoples have but I have continued to add to my position taking into account the postings I have read and the education I have received on a lot of areas of the oil and gas industry and companies involved in the Sugarloaf. I need the share to get to .26 cents to break even so I'm feeling relatively safe.

I have now been considering adding to my position once again if the Kowalik results come out postive. I was wondering if anyone else was thinking of doing the same. Does it mean if Kowalik flows well than the other two have a higher probability of doing the same or am I way off? Are prices likely to spike as soon as the announcements are made or will there be expected to be a gradual increase/decrease if the news comes out either way.

Anyones help would be appreciated as it really looks like the next couple of months will be the time I let go of my ADI. Its been a hell of a ride and I'm sure if things go well, subsequent wells will increase the sp but I've waited long enough.

Fingers crossed and lots of positive thinking

EEE

PS - sorry this has turned into an epic but hopefully this also helps some of the other amateurs like myself who are struggling with an exit stratey.


----------



## Agentm

no one can nor will advise

simply put, advising on shares is not a part of what the asf condones

many are adding in these pretty astonishing days of very low sp.. and equally you have to assume the ones exiting have their own reasons and strategy

a while back some major holders were exiting, so plenty of shares were on hand for a great price, i know i took some up..

exit when ever you feel its right, but no one can advise on what you asking..

hope it helps.. i know its not going to give you any answer you need

the sugarkane is a project conoco is often mentioning and is part of their 2010 strategy.. i am investing on that basis, if cop pulled out for instance so would i have.. there is nothing different about our sugarkane acreages compared to any other conoco holds in the immediate region

looking forward to any future promise of a solve to this formation and some positive announcements of success.. we need some change on this share, its long overdue, being in the mid teens is just so undervalued, still only 10% priced into the share atm..   adi will take its time and announce only facts,, no ambiguity is necessary.. one thing is certain, the sp is not in the clouds like some other eagleford operators atm,, and the shareholders here have 3 laterals free carried and 3 wells to come free carried..  there wont be any need for capital like many small caps would need to get with their large % in the eagleford.. and the company is totally able to deal with the % of sugarkane it owns.. where as many others are totally out of their depth, with no oilmen on board with the management skills or ability to deal with on their plates.. and totally reliant on a buy out or they will fall over..but great days ahead on any success in the upcoming and present wells for adi

good luck to all holders


----------



## Lucky_Country

EEE said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Just a quick couple of questions as I am trying to develop an exit strategy for ADI but lack the knowledge that numerous other posters on this thread possess of the specific oil and gas industry (you all know who you are and I along with everyone else thank you for sharing your thoughts and keeping us all up to date on a regular basis. Of course an honourable mention goes out to Agent M)
> 
> I bought my first batch of ADI in Nov 2006 for 0.625c, rode them up to .88 cents and back down to what they are today. My faith in the share has been rocked a number of times as I'm sure a lot of peoples have but I have continued to add to my position taking into account the postings I have read and the education I have received on a lot of areas of the oil and gas industry and companies involved in the Sugarloaf. I need the share to get to .26 cents to break even so I'm feeling relatively safe.
> 
> I have now been considering adding to my position once again if the Kowalik results come out postive. I was wondering if anyone else was thinking of doing the same. Does it mean if Kowalik flows well than the other two have a higher probability of doing the same or am I way off? Are prices likely to spike as soon as the announcements are made or will there be expected to be a gradual increase/decrease if the news comes out either way.
> 
> Anyones help would be appreciated as it really looks like the next couple of months will be the time I let go of my ADI. Its been a hell of a ride and I'm sure if things go well, subsequent wells will increase the sp but I've waited long enough.
> 
> Fingers crossed and lots of positive thinking
> 
> EEE
> 
> PS - sorry this has turned into an epic but hopefully this also helps some of the other amateurs like myself who are struggling with an exit stratey.




Well an exit stratergy for ADI ? Buy low sell high !!

I personally feel that an American entity may make that decision for you if you can understand where Im coming from !

After holding ADI for so long I for one am just concentrating on results before having an exit stratergy as how can one decide on what to do without results.

There have been various figures put out on good results at Sugarkane so you could base your sell price on these figures but these kind of stocks tend to get overbought and oversold at various stages but continuos drilling and and good results could see the shareprice go far higher than many expect !!!


----------



## condog

This is one of the most popular stocks on ASF....it has so many responses its hard to keep track....for me and anyone else whos just started watching it can someone or a few people give a very brief commentary of the key reasons they think its a great stock and why they think it has so much upside if thats the case ta...

Ive read the last few pages and checked braphs plus financials, but a global overview of whats doen and whats in the pipeline would be lovely.  ta...


----------



## Agentm

low entry price, high upside and all major oil companies chasing acreages in the vicinity..

apart from that no big deal



oh,, and no one thinks the acreages adi have stand a snowballs chance in hell atm,, sp is about 10% of the upside


----------



## Sdajii

Agentm said:


> low entry price, high upside and all major oil companies chasing acreages in the vicinity..
> 
> apart from that no big deal
> 
> 
> 
> oh,, and no one thinks the acreages adi have stand a snowballs chance in hell atm,, sp is about 10% of the upside




Why do you think the SP is so undervalued? Is it simply that ADI is completely under the radar? If so, why are people like yourself who are in the know not buying up big, by getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt if necessary? Surely that would make sense, at least until the SP is up to at least 50-70% of their true value. If you're so sure of a 1,000% profit, it seems madness for anyone in the know not to be throwing everything they can into it. You are certainly talking this company up, up, up, not keeping it hushed.

Is it that there is a real reason to think that these wells stand no more than a snowball's chance in Hell? It does seem like the market believes so. Why is this?

Or is it a case of it being blatantly obvious for anyone in the know, but with people like yourself being so few that even though you have bought up big, the buy up just hasn't been that large? I know there are cases where exactly that does happen.

It just seems very strange that you could continually give this company such a hype with predictions of such confidence, and for the SP to lay down in defiance for so long.

Certainly not an attack on you, I'm just wondering. For the record, I hold, so I obviously agree that this one is worth betting on, though perhaps not quite the 1,000% profit prediction, and certainly not with a high confidence level. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong, of course


----------



## Ramblin Round

Greetings from Texas.

After reading all 200+ pages (twice) I feel ready to invest in Adelphi. However there is no change in the stock on Nasdaq since Dec. 24th and they are not trading since then. Why ?

How can I buy some shares ? I have done my dd and am ready to invest and now I can't ? I've never bought shares of a company before and I'm quite ignorant to trading, etc. But I've seen what these wells are capable of and know that Agent M must travel the same highways that I do because I see all the activity and have friends in the field. What Agent M speaks is purely truth. Invest or don't invest, it's your business but I want in on Adelphi. Now I just need to know how.


----------



## estseon

Ramblin Round said:


> Greetings from Texas.
> 
> After reading all 200+ pages (twice) I feel ready to invest in Adelphi. However there is no change in the stock on Nasdaq since Dec. 24th and they are not trading since then. Why ?
> 
> How can I buy some shares ? I have done my dd and am ready to invest and now I can't ? I've never bought shares of a company before and I'm quite ignorant to trading, etc. But I've seen what these wells are capable of and know that Agent M must travel the same highways that I do because I see all the activity and have friends in the field. What Agent M speaks is purely truth. Invest or don't invest, it's your business but I want in on Adelphi. Now I just need to know how.




Ramblin

I invested from the UK through a UK broker that has a collaberation with a local (ASX) broker and stock custodian. Not all UK brokers offer that type of facility. You may have to do similarly from the US. Only an existing US investor or a US broker could advise you. Good luck!


----------



## mjam

Sdajii said:


> Why do you think the SP is so undervalued?




My view on why the share price is as the current level is simply due to the fact this company has not delivered anything over the last few years. 

If anything it has delivered a number of exploration failures during this time - e.g Indonesia just to name one.

We can say things like the company managed to stay alive during the GFC and that's all good - but bottom line is it is a exploration company that has had no real success to date.

Now to the present - the company has a potential company making play in sugarloaf and at face value it has a farm in partner (hilcorp) that provides me with some level of confidence - lets hope they nail it and deliver some long awaited returns to the shareholders.


----------



## Agentm

Sdajii said:


> Why do you think the SP is so undervalued? Is it simply that ADI is completely under the radar? If so, why are people like yourself who are in the know not buying up big, by getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt if necessary? Surely that would make sense, at least until the SP is up to at least 50-70% of their true value. If you're so sure of a 1,000% profit, it seems madness for anyone in the know not to be throwing everything they can into it. You are certainly talking this company up, up, up, not keeping it hushed.
> 
> Is it that there is a real reason to think that these wells stand no more than a snowball's chance in Hell? It does seem like the market believes so. Why is this?
> 
> Or is it a case of it being blatantly obvious for anyone in the know, but with people like yourself being so few that even though you have bought up big, the buy up just hasn't been that large? I know there are cases where exactly that does happen.
> 
> It just seems very strange that you could continually give this company such a hype with predictions of such confidence, and for the SP to lay down in defiance for so long.
> 
> Certainly not an attack on you, I'm just wondering. For the record, I hold, so I obviously agree that this one is worth betting on, though perhaps not quite the 1,000% profit prediction, and certainly not with a high confidence level. I'm more than happy to be proven wrong, of course




wow, with all thats been posted on the thread you still dont get it?  huge attack on agent m here..

all i can say is dyor.. 

i dont hype, your a bit insulting. you wont get away with saying you not attacking someone in a sentence after you just did... i just post regional facts, when adi started in the chalks and eagleford many years ago, *it was a huge secret*, and noone believed the eagleford shale could produce, then a number of explorers got involved besides adi and tcei and conoco.. petrohawk got on with things,, but the rock in karnes county was a little different, it had two zones active, its called the sugarkane and it is a touch tricky.. but right now all the major oil corporations are buying into the play.. why is that?????

conoco recently announced a 4mmcfpd 1500 bopd well a few months back, if you dont believe it, then look up their press releases..

hilcorp, the 4th biggest privately owned oil company just bought into the sugarkane,, why is that?

adi sit in the same, if you can prove to me the field is unproductive, and can never be commercial i will sell my shares today, but all anecdotal evidence i find points to hydrocarbons in the field and production from wells..  i make no apologies for posting data and from what i hear, many people learn a lot from the research i post.. grow up and thank someone rather than criticise and call it hype..  what hype?  there has been no hype, just the facts,, adi wont even hype it up, they cant post anything due to the secrecy with tcei and conoco, i post so much stuff here, my data here appears on well sites in karnes county, so big is their concern over the play and keeping a lid on it.. i am closely watched and only post as much as i can what i know to be factual, and when its not i certainly say its from a source.. the directors are far more concerned with sp stability, and with straight shooting and honesty,, look to gdn, azz or many others if you want hype..

you invest what you feel comfortable with, and with respect to your asking if i topped up, ffs, how many times have i said i did top up?  why ask someone and pretend they they have not topped up? and then criticise them for not topping up??  when they have and openly say so time and again?

if you dont see a huge upside, then what upside do you see and for what reason?

you ask questions like you have no confidence in your own investing, thats your deal,, not mine,, if you cant handle investing and need a warm blanket and need to be spoon fed, and need others to make the decision feel right,, then dont look to me for your comfort.. dyor and invest to the levels you can deal with..


this is how adi see the value 








on the topic of the wells, so far only one well, kowalik, had some open hole exposure to the chalks and kennedy has had a mini frac attempt in eagelford. oth produced, koalik was damaged and was not commercial, kennedy on a featherduster frac obviously did not flow commercial, but there are plans to frac the entire well and expose it to the eagelford for production.
in about 4 weeks or so.

conoco had huge success at bordovsky, there is anticipation that the stimulation of these wells will deliver flow, we are invested in the hope its good flow and commercial,,

this is how adi see the frac, its many times the size of any frac attempt so far.. 






btw.. your very close to being put on ignore permanently..  usually asf folk are a lot politer than you are..


----------



## nioka

Sdajii said:


> Why do you think the SP is so undervalued? Is it simply that ADI is completely under the radar? If so, why are people like yourself who are in the know not buying up big, by getting themselves up to their eyeballs in debt if necessary? Surely that would make sense, at least until the SP is up to at least 50-70% of their true value. If you're so sure of a 1,000% profit, it seems madness for anyone in the know not to be throwing everything they can into it. You are certainly talking this company up, up, up, not keeping it hushed.




It may surprise those that are critical of some posters and suggest continuous ramping to know that there are a few who do post here that are in the top 20 shareholder list, backing their post with hard cash.

As far as suggesting that those with faith should "throw everything they can muster" into ADI ?. Nobody should ever invest in ANY stock more than they can afford to lose.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> It may surprise those that are critical of some posters and suggest continuous ramping to know that there are a few who do post here that are in the top 20 shareholder list, backing their post with hard cash.
> 
> As far as suggesting that those with faith should "throw everything they can muster" into ADI ?. Nobody should ever invest in ANY stock more than they can afford to lose.




this site, and this thread is not about investment advising,  as hard as many try to lure me into it..  

its near impossible to just discuss the operations and the play itself

its not just investors that are making money here, i hear landowners are getting very large pay cheques, and one in particular in karnes county was staggering.. paid by conoco to a landowner.. 

sugarkane has delivered.. adi needs the tcei hilcorp crew to get it happening in one open hole well (kowalik) and the next two cemented laterals of kennedy and weston..

early days atm..


----------



## Sdajii

Wow! Sorry, I obviously came across very differently from the way I intended.

Agentm, I appreciate your posts, I am not accusing you of posting fiction, I watch this thread multiple times every day, largely because of your input. That has been a big part of my buying into ADI. Obviously I am not trying to discredit you, I have literally put thousands of dollars down in what you are saying and what else I have learned about ADI.

Perhaps the offense was taken in my misuse of colloquial investor jargon/lingo. Perhaps words like 'hype' carry more sting to people like yourself, while to me they are 'softer' words with a different meaning.

I'll say it again, I meant absolutely no attack on you at all. I gave several very reasonable (at least to me) possible explanations for the share price being so low which were mutually compatible with everything you say being top knotch information, which I still assume it to be. I also asked if there was something I was missing.

It seems fairly clear that you missed the point. Your going over the basics of the situation again seems to indicate that you think I was accusing you of giving misinformation. I was not. My question related to the investment world as a whole, and most likely, why ADI is not attracting more attention and money. If I throw up the possibility of the majority of the market realising something we/you don't and staying out, it is not that I am suggesting it is likely or that I think it is the case, it is just staying balanced and not blindfolding myself to any possibilities.

I think the main piece of misunderstanding came from me saying you keep hyping ADI up. In colloquial investor language, I take it this would be interpreted as 'falsely hyping' or 'presenting fictional data to artificially inflate interest' while I meant it simply as 'displaying it as a good investment'. The fact that I said I had invested my own money after reading this thread should make it plainly obvious that I take you seriously. Please, see the message being the words as it was intended, not as the message carried by the mistranslation. If I say I am not attacking you, perhaps you could take that at face value rather than getting upset and retaining the belief that an attack had been launched.

My question wasn't answered, but I don't really care now, forget it.

Good luck to all ADI investors  Me included!


----------



## OK2

Sdajii said:


> Wow! Sorry, I obviously came across very differently from the way I intended.
> 
> Agentm, I appreciate your posts, I am not accusing you of posting fiction, I watch this thread multiple times every day, largely because of your input. That has been a big part of my buying into ADI. Obviously I am not trying to discredit you, I have literally put thousands of dollars down in what you are saying and what else I have learned about ADI.
> 
> Perhaps the offense was taken in my misuse of colloquial investor jargon/lingo. Perhaps words like 'hype' carry more sting to people like yourself, while to me they are 'softer' words with a different meaning.
> 
> I'll say it again, I meant absolutely no attack on you at all. I gave several very reasonable (at least to me) possible explanations for the share price being so low which were mutually compatible with everything you say being top knotch information, which I still assume it to be. I also asked if there was something I was missing.
> 
> It seems fairly clear that you missed the point. Your going over the basics of the situation again seems to indicate that you think I was accusing you of giving misinformation. I was not. My question related to the investment world as a whole, and most likely, why ADI is not attracting more attention and money. If I throw up the possibility of the majority of the market realising something we/you don't and staying out, it is not that I am suggesting it is likely or that I think it is the case, it is just staying balanced and not blindfolding myself to any possibilities.
> 
> I think the main piece of misunderstanding came from me saying you keep hyping ADI up. In colloquial investor language, I take it this would be interpreted as 'falsely hyping' or 'presenting fictional data to artificially inflate interest' while I meant it simply as 'displaying it as a good investment'. The fact that I said I had invested my own money after reading this thread should make it plainly obvious that I take you seriously. Please, see the message being the words as it was intended, not as the message carried by the mistranslation. If I say I am not attacking you, perhaps you could take that at face value rather than getting upset and retaining the belief that an attack had been launched.
> 
> My question wasn't answered, but I don't really care now, forget it.
> 
> Good luck to all ADI investors  Me included!




*Sounded like a HC response, let ADI speak for itself! Agentm has informed us with facts that have supporting information and very little ramping. As a share holder is it not his duty to talk up the share? To me it would appear that there are people out there wanting to buy into ADI after the share price has began to bolt.*


----------



## adobee

nioka said:


> It may surprise those that are critical of some posters and suggest continuous ramping to know that *there are a few who do post here that are in the top 20 shareholder list,* backing their post with hard cash.
> 
> As far as suggesting that those with faith should "throw everything they can muster" into ADI ?. Nobody should ever invest in ANY stock more than they can afford to lose.




How do you know this ? Is this you ? Are you referring to me .. ?
How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?


----------



## sam76

I can't believe everyone is being to touchy and defensive on this thread.

The words sand and vagina come to mind, lol

relaaaaax people.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>


----------



## Agentm

adobee said:


> How do you know this ? Is this you ? Are you referring to me .. ?
> How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?




lol

i know a lot of the top 20 myself,  and they are mostly very long term holders.

Total and Chesapeake ink $2.25 billion shale-gas pact

NEW YORK  ........ French oil major Total SA n Monday struck a deal to enter the U.S. shale-gas market for the first time with a $2.25 billion accord with Chesapeake Energy, sending shares of the domestic natural gas producer up handily.

The assets subject to the Chesapeake-Total joint venture include about 270,000 net acres of leasehold in the Core and Tier 1 areas of the Barnett, about 700 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day of current net production and about 3.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent of proved reserves.

In addition, Chesapeake believes that its leasehold position will support the drilling of some 3,100 additional net locations with 6.3 trillion cubic feet of unrisked unproved reserves.

*And Chesapeake is talking with Total about the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas and Canadian natural gas shale plays. *

this is also interesting


http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/haynesville-the-movie-now


----------



## Speculator

AgentM

I think I can safely stand for all the 'polite asx folk,' when I say thank you for your tireless research and factual postings. Regardless of how the SP moves in the coming months I, for one, have learned an invaluable amount of information from your postings, information which will benefit me through my trading life. 

Keep up the good work AgentM!

GL to all holders.


----------



## OK2

sam76 said:


> I can't believe everyone is being to touchy and defensive on this thread.
> 
> The words sand and vagina come to mind, lol
> 
> relaaaaax people.
> 
> <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/l7IHyGzPYIU&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>




Did I miss something? I am unable to work out the second half of your comment, could you please enlighten me as I find it intriguing.
Cheers


----------



## sam76

This is the only forum that doesn't automatically recognise youtube links.  

all the others i'm on with the the same skin don't have a problem - it's just ASF

(this isn't a whinge just something to say to get up to 100 letters)

try this link.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7IHyGzPYIU


----------



## Agentm

there is a new permit TCEI has put in


http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...Query=Y&name=MORGAN+228-2&univDocNo=485893121


----------



## nioka

[QUOTE
How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?[/QUOTE]

Thats a trade secret. Something for me to know and for others to guess. Believe me though it is a fact.


----------



## Sdajii

OK2 said:


> *Sounded like a HC response, let ADI speak for itself! Agentm has informed us with facts that have supporting information and very little ramping. As a share holder is it not his duty to talk up the share? To me it would appear that there are people out there wanting to buy into ADI after the share price has began to bolt.*




That's lovely. I didn't use the word "ramp". I did not say he shouldn't tell us the facts, why do you assume I did? I have repeatedly acknowledged my gratitude for Agentm's input.

Rather than unwittingly put sand where it is uncomfortable (I must say, some of you must be laying wide open just downwind of a dry sandy path if I can put it there so easily and accidentally), I'll just watch this thread quietly from now on.

Thanks again for the information and good luck to all ADI holders


----------



## adobee

nioka said:


> [QUOTE
> How do you know who posts here is in the top 20 shareholder list .. ?




Thats a trade secret. Something for me to know and for others to guess. Believe me though it is a fact.[/QUOTE]

If you cant back it up i dont believe it .. that is like me saying someone told me the price is going to skyrocket.. It is a secret who but take it as a fact ..

anyway if there is people in the top 20 aside from agentm and that other american (bubba) i think is the name..   they could post some better quality materials .. or buy some more shares to push us past 20c


----------



## Father Ted

Texas Crude have submitted a new application in Karnes - MORGAN 228-2

I don't seem to be able to download the Plat at the moment, but expect it to be the resubmit for GONZALEZ with the drilling from the other end of the horizontal.

we shall see.

things are certainly hotting up on the Kane at the moment, its difficult to keep up!

father ted


----------



## Agentm

adobee. nioka has never uttered a false statement on this forum, and his claims are backed up by my research.. there are many here who post who are in the top 20..  i think well over 50% of adi is held by about 50 individual holders, awe are the biggest company holding then alex is the second largest holder..  i know many of them and what some of their aliases are on the forums, then there are plenty i am sure who are major holders but either dont contribute nor participate in the forums but are active in watching what goes on.


btw you could be also hold amounts equal to the top 20 but hold in various names   and not be in the public eye

194k in sellers left now, not seen that in a while.. usually heralds a price leap when that is seen

all imho and dyor

father ted. i looked at all the different permits, gonzales was cancelled a few weeks back, so i would assume its either on that lease or close by.. could well be a new one in its own right..


----------



## Hatchy

Love the clip SAM76

To all those who've posted lately who think this forum or it's members owe them something (especially those asking for trading advice) -  - The 'sand in your vagina' comment was no doubt for you. 

As to all those faithful who have held since the days of 50c plus - Good Luck, perhaps we might see a return someday soon. The technology going into fracs has improved significantly since ADI started in Texas, so lets hope Hilcorp and TCEI have now planned it to perfection. 








sam76 said:


> This is the only forum that doesn't automatically recognise youtube links.
> 
> all the others i'm on with the the same skin don't have a problem - it's just ASF
> 
> (this isn't a whinge just something to say to get up to 100 letters)
> 
> try this link.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7IHyGzPYIU


----------



## gdaf

i for one am wondering what the results of a 7 day frac job is 9.5 days after the start......

.......

tick tick tick...


----------



## jancha

gdaf said:


> i for one am wondering what the results of a 7 day frac job is 9.5 days after the start......
> 
> .......
> 
> tick tick tick...




No news is good news?
Not in this case with no news it will drive down the sp with the restless however on a positive note you may pick up more at a lower price.
Agentm has your friend managed to take anymore photos?
Would be nice to see some flares.


----------



## BBR

Does anyone know what is happening with the Lyssy wells?  I am a landowner and information is very hard to come by.  Thanks for the help.


----------



## Father Ted

Well, my apology, I got that one a bit wrong. The MORGAN permit runs parallel to the KOWALIK well, about a mile to the east, which puts it about halfway between KOWALIK and GONZALEZ (the latter has now been cancelled). It does however run south to north like both EASLEY and KENNEDY. 

What is odd, is that it runs toe to toe with what I had mapped out as the RECKLING permit, but I don’t seem to be able to find RECKLING on the W1 site any more, (unless I’ve simply missed it). This new horizontal ends up almost underneath the Emrick Opiela ranch.

ft


----------



## onthebeach

From a very reliable source (actually 2): 

SE Atascosa County, EOG's first Peeler lateral making ~ 3.5mmcf/d and 1,000 bbls of condensate/oil per day. Second source (works in my office) confirmed flaring (the drillsite is less than a mile from ours). That's some serious change in their pocket!


----------



## Agentm

gdaf said:


> i for one am wondering what the results of a 7 day frac job is 9.5 days after the start......
> 
> .......
> 
> tick tick tick...




if there was nil to report, then there would be news very early. the formation was flowing before in the damaged open hole section, with a stimulation program possibly completed, if it was a complete failure, it would be evident very early on.





jancha said:


> No news is good news?
> Not in this case with no news it will drive down the sp with the restless however on a positive note you may pick up more at a lower price.
> Agentm has your friend managed to take anymore photos?
> Would be nice to see some flares.





hey jancha

perhaps some will come through, pretty cold down there in karnes atm..
the kowalik well is hooked up to the pipeline, so the amount of flaring needed may be very minimal



BBR said:


> Does anyone know what is happening with the Lyssy wells?  I am a landowner and information is very hard to come by.  Thanks for the help.




not hearing anything on the lyssy wells, its obvious that eog are interested in the region there as there were further permits there

that hawthorn vertical well near you must be close to completion, have you been keeping a watch on that one?




Father Ted said:


> Well, my apology, I got that one a bit wrong. The MORGAN permit runs parallel to the KOWALIK well, about a mile to the east, which puts it about halfway between KOWALIK and GONZALEZ (the latter has now been cancelled). It does however run south to north like both EASLEY and KENNEDY.
> 
> What is odd, is that it runs toe to toe with what I had mapped out as the RECKLING permit, but I don’t seem to be able to find RECKLING on the W1 site any more, (unless I’ve simply missed it). This new horizontal ends up almost underneath the Emrick Opiela ranch.
> 
> ft





many permits were cancelled last month, and it appears with the new drilling techniques, the direction of drilling is being reversed..  easley and morgan are valid ones atm, i believe most of the others were pulled




onthebeach said:


> From a very reliable source (actually 2):
> 
> SE Atascosa County, EOG's first Peeler lateral making ~ 3.5mmcf/d and 1,000 bbls of condensate/oil per day. Second source (works in my office) confirmed flaring (the drillsite is less than a mile from ours). That's some serious change in their pocket!




i hear the krause in de witt was 1100 bopd, that one is in the sugarkane and sits near the conocophillips hooks well. (from another source..)

i hear the eog wells in mcmullen were also running similar numbers..

speaking of change in your pocket, did you think what the pay cheques to some of these land owners are atm on the bigger wells?!!!!??

whats great to hear is that the eagleford is consistently bringing in good wells across the oil zones, and i would be very pleased if these condensate/ gas wells in the sugarkane begin to match up with the pack..


anyone know whats going on with sugarloaf 1 ???????


----------



## estseon

adobee said:


> Thats a trade secret. Something for me to know and for others to guess. Believe me though it is a fact.




If you cant back it up i dont believe it .. that is like me saying someone told me the price is going to skyrocket.. It is a secret who but take it as a fact ..

anyway if there is people in the top 20 aside from agentm and that other american (bubba) i think is the name..   they could post some better quality materials .. or buy some more shares to push us past 20c[/QUOTE]

1. Maybe there is contact off-BB between them;

2. It cannot be surprising that big investors will want to keep tabs on general investor opinion so why would they not at least view the principal BBs?

3. I do not suppose that they care a jot whether you believe it or not.

4. So far as I recall, agent was the first person on any BB that I followed to call "oil" and "Eagleford" and also the scramble for leases.

5. quattro44 occasionally posts on ADFVN EME BB and he appears to have had past experience of working the machinery.


----------



## nioka

"If you cant back it up i dont believe it "

In this stock there are the believers,the nonbelievers and the doughters. Believe what you will, that is your choice. Backing up my post is my choice. I'll not help you identify individuals,nor should I.


----------



## gerkin02

The potential of the eagle ford shale was alerted to me back in April 2009 by agentm.

This enabled me to take a large position in the play via two companies.

The global financial crisis created some opportunities that maynot be seen again for a very long time.

Companies like adi that have cash,a forward business plan and low numbers of shares on issue will prosper upon success going forward.

The best part is, for this stocks journey, it is only just the beginning.

All the best.


----------



## moses

Hello hello hello. What have we here? I believe I see a teacup formed. What think ye?


----------



## tomcat

moses said:


> Hello hello hello. What have we here? I believe I see a teacup formed. What think ye?




I would settle for some black texan tea!

Lets hope the cup overflows!!

Good luck all holders as it has been a long wait for a commercial well.


----------



## onthebeach

agentm: RE"speaking of change in your pocket, did you think what the pay cheques to some of these land owners are atm on the bigger wells?!!!!??"

The lease bonuses alone are making millionaires in that area every other day. This is all taking place on what was just 3 short years ago considered barren goat pasture. As for the royalty owner's take, Mr. Peeler stands to take home 22.5% of roughly 2 million (USD)/month, per well. We have 11 locations on our lease. I figure EOG has about twice that in this (small) area alone. Mr. Peeler's take, if they were all successful, and assuming just the first month's production held (which it won't) would be in the neighborhood of $5 million/month.


----------



## Agentm

onthebeach

its clear that the conoco bordovsky lease will also create instant millionaires just on the first cheque alone..

i think the local counties bank managers will be very warm to anyone coming into their doors right now



father ted

an update of the permits.


----------



## Father Ted

agentm

I concur with that.
Do you have any information on the gather pipeline, I haven't seen any actual mapping - or time scales, athough there are references to pipeline capacity in Karnes being increased by 25% by beginning of this year.

I don't know where to look to follow this through.

The best I've seen was the slide presented at the EME agm a couple of years ago.

regards

father ted


----------



## Agentm

Father Ted said:


> agentm
> 
> I concur with that.
> Do you have any information on the gather pipeline, I haven't seen any actual mapping - or time scales, athough there are references to pipeline capacity in Karnes being increased by 25% by beginning of this year.
> 
> I don't know where to look to follow this through.
> 
> The best I've seen was the slide presented at the EME agm a couple of years ago.
> 
> regards
> 
> father ted




omthebeach may know more, but i did post a while ago that pipline companies were gearing up for the eagleford, they were servicng liveoak wilson atascosa gonzales i believe..  imho with eog really pushing out the wells, these pipeline companies are increasing capacity and upgrading their stations..  eog in karnes have many rigs on the go, as well as atascosa and possibly still in mcmullen

in dewitt pioneer are doing another eagleford called CHARLES RIEDESEL 

conoco are completing plomero in live oak with that amazing Precision rig

in karnes county eog have at least 3  rigs on the go in the harper and  milton cluster

murphy must have just completed the drees 1h well by now

dan huges must have drilled their second eagleford well a few miles north of kowalik, darlene 2 

hawthorn must have finished their vertical well a few miles south of the eog lyssy wells (just north of the adi acreages near atascosa/wilson/karnes county junction)

activity is increasing..

adi will drill at the end of this month..


----------



## adobee

starting trying to buy some more today round 17 & 18c ...
only small parcels.. but am feeling positive about this one ..  soon as someone picks up the rest of my rog I will buy some more ..  Portfolio now consists of 70% CTP  & 30% ADI ... BOUYAKACHA!


----------



## sam76

adobee said:


> starting trying to buy some more today round 17 & 18c ...
> only small parcels.. but am feeling positive about this one ..  soon as someone picks up the rest of my rog I will buy some more ..  Portfolio now consists of 70% CTP  & 30% ADI ... BOUYAKACHA!




I reckon you should just buy 'at market'

EVERYONE would jump in if they saw someone buy that way.

'gotta get me some ADI before they're all gone!'

So many people on the sidelines it's not funny.


----------



## Lucky_Country

KOWALIK #1H FRACTURE STIMULATION UPDATE & NEW WELL PREPARATIONS
Kowalik #1H Fracture Stimulation Program
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) provides the following update on the fracture stimulation
operations at the Kowalik #1H well:
As previously reported the pumping operations commenced on 28 December 2009 (US CST)
with the first stage comprising of four phases targeting the horizontal 3,800 ft of slotted liner.
After 22 hours of continuous pumping and during the fourth phase of the stimulation program
an anomalous pressure drop was noted and operations were suspended to allow further
investigation. At this point the first three phases had been successfully completed with over
80% of the planned fluids for this stage having been pumped with encouraging real time
indicators of the stimulation.
Following the investigation the Operator has elected to run a tie back string of 5
 ½ casing from the top of the liner to surface. Thereafter an isolation plug, which has been
set in the liner as part of the investigation, will be removed and the well flowed to surface.
The fracture equipment has demobilised and a rig is now moving on to location to carry out
the abovementioned work. It is presently estimated that the Kowalik well will be flowed to
production in 1-2 weeks.
First New Well Under Farmin Agreement
Preparations and planning is now underway for the first farmin well at Sugarloaf, the Easley
#1H well, which will be located approximately 2km to the north east of the Weston #1H well.
As previously reported, this well is expected to be spudded during the month of January 2010.

Yet more delays am I ever going to get a result ?

How long is a piece of string waiting waiting waiting gees its geeting to me now !


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country

there were 3 phases completed in the slotted liner,, think it through, then 22 hours in the forth the pressure dropped

so they say they are putting in a 5 1/2 inch liner,  so why do that? 

once they have the liner in they will flow it.. so wait for the results

of course its disappointing to have events like this, but it part and parcel of drilling.

i am mostly interested in what the 80% of the frac has the ability to deliver, if they are saying:

_At this point the first three phases had been successfully completed with over 80% of the planned fluids for this stage having been pumped *with encouraging real time indicators of the stimulation.*
_ 

then to put that into an announcement means something, they are only announcing what happened and what they do know..

imho the sellers atm have no idea what the announcement is telling them, its not exactly clear in the report what the reasons are, its guessing, so it would be incorrect to state them.. but its obvious that the 5 1/2 inch liner is not being put there unless its part of what may be contributing to the problem

some of the more experienced may want to hazard an opinion, but i dont see any problem other than a pressure drop and remedy..


----------



## adobee

adobee said:


> starting trying to buy some more today round 17 & 18c ...
> only small parcels.. but am feeling positive about this one ..  soon as someone picks up the rest of my rog I will buy some more ..  Portfolio now consists of 70% CTP  & 30% ADI ... BOUYAKACHA!




you wouldnt read about it .. come back to my desk .. and we dropped to 15c ..   apart from the time frame cant see why anyone would start selling now ..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm said:


> Lucky_Country
> 
> there were 3 phases completed in the slotted liner,, think it through, then 22 hours in the forth the pressure dropped
> 
> so they say they are putting in a 5 1/2 inch liner,  so why do that?
> 
> once they have the liner in they will flow it.. so wait for the results
> 
> of course its disappointing to have events like this, but it part and parcel of drilling.
> 
> i am mostly interested in what the 80% of the frac has the ability to deliver, if they are saying:
> 
> _At this point the first three phases had been successfully completed with over 80% of the planned fluids for this stage having been pumped *with encouraging real time indicators of the stimulation.*
> _
> 
> then to put that into an announcement means something, they are only announcing what happened and what they do know..
> 
> imho the sellers atm have no idea what the announcement is telling them, its not exactly clear in the report what the reasons are, its guessing, so it would be incorrect to state them.. but its obvious that the 5 1/2 inch liner is not being put there unless its part of what may be contributing to the problem
> 
> some of the more experienced may want to hazard an opinion, but i dont see any problem other than a pressure drop and remedy..




Hey AgentM 

Im just venting my frustration at yet a gain some sort of delay and problem its just been a long road that we have been on.

Im sure things will work out just the way we had hoped just taking longer than any of us had hoped.


----------



## Agentm

adobee

its  just the way it goes,  i think adi has possibly more day traders sitting on it, and lack of understand may contribute to the selling in earnest


its clear that aut has not moved, and eka only .05 of cent.. hardly a panic there, its just day traders imho not understanding the big picture, and thinking the worst..

look at azz for example, the frac there should have been completed weeks ago, they have gone from announcing day in day out on anything, to total silence.. so you have to accept they have most probably have big down hole issues, and you have to accept further that as a shareholder there your not going to get the information about it.. 

the  jvp adi is in is quite prepared to announce the facts here, adi is never going to hype it up nor are they going to disguise a down hole issue like this. 

your not putting a liner in a hole unless you need to.. think it through

its a bit of a pity but no disaster at all..

when they say they have encouraging indicators then its waht they have.. 

lets wait for the flow.. 

all imho and dyor


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> adobee
> 
> its  just the way it goes,  i think adi has possibly more day traders sitting on it, and lack of understand may contribute to the selling in earnest
> 
> 
> its clear that aut has not moved, and eka only .05 of cent.. hardly a panic there, its just day traders imho not understanding the big picture, and thinking the worst..
> 
> look at azz for example, the frac there should have been completed weeks ago, they have gone from announcing day in day out on anything, to total silence.. so you have to accept they have most probably have big down hole issues, and you have to accept further that as a shareholder there your not going to get the information about it..
> 
> the  jvp adi is in is quite prepared to announce the facts here, adi is never going to hype it up nor are they going to disguise a down hole issue like this.
> 
> your not putting a liner in a hole unless you need to.. think it through
> 
> its a bit of a pity but no disaster at all..
> 
> when they say they have encouraging indicators then its waht they have..
> 
> lets wait for the flow..
> 
> all imho and dyor




Hi Agentm. Lack of understanding is probably correct.
Could you explain what the purpose of the 5 1/2inch liner is?
Or better still could you suggest a web site i can go to for better understanding of that similar type of set up. Thanks in advance


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Hi Agentm. Lack of understanding is probably correct.
> Could you explain what the purpose of the 5 1/2inch liner is?
> Or better still could you suggest a web site i can go to for better understanding of that similar type of set up. Thanks in advance




jancha

i think there is plenty to be learned in dyor,  i cant point you anywhere, and cant advise.. some people may conclude the press drop out was formation derived, others may conclude that it was equipment failure in the well..

theres indications in the announcement on what the jvp is working on atm, what remedy they see for the well. 

only facts are being posted there..

the actual conclusion on what caused the drop off wont be known until the well flows.. believe it or not..


----------



## choppy

Agent

This is pure speculation on my part but I am guessing they parted the casing in the slotted horizontal or the vertical part of the well.  For this reason they are running a liner to maintain the integrity of their wellbore.  There would be no other reason (off the top of my head) to run a liner at this point because the well is already cased.

P.S.  I have heard that AZZ has casing problems in their well also and are debating on what to do.


----------



## onthebeach

Agentm said:


> omthebeach may know more, but i did post a while ago that pipline companies were gearing up for the eagleford, they were servicng liveoak wilson atascosa gonzales i believe..  imho with eog really pushing out the wells, these pipeline companies are increasing capacity and upgrading their stations..  eog in karnes have many rigs on the go, as well as atascosa and possibly still in mcmullen




Pipelines, marketers and the whole lot = foaming at the mouth at the new opportunity created by all the new exploration in what was previously almost all small-time oil production country. A new 42" lateral was going in, N to S along hwy 86 (I forget) from Crystal City to Carrizo Springs. I believe that was a Kinder Morgan line. Smaller gatherers are analyzing their throughput options all throughout the play. My dad is a gas marketer, so I'm fairly hip to what's happening up there. In a nutshell, they're gearing up, but pipeline infrastructure takes a while.


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Agent
> 
> This is pure speculation on my part but I am guessing they parted the casing in the slotted horizontal or the vertical part of the well.  For this reason they are running a liner to maintain the integrity of their wellbore.  There would be no other reason (off the top of my head) to run a liner at this point because the well is already cased.
> 
> P.S.  I have heard that AZZ has casing problems in their well also and are debating on what to do.




i think your possibly right choppy, it makes sense when your announcing a liner..

re azz... hearing the same choppy

but whats interesting is they cant seem to hype it up to the market.. dead silence there..

onthebeach

thanks for the input, its more or less how i am seeing it. 

on the beach, i am hearing there is a well or 2 in gonzales county that eclipsed bordovsky by factors of many times..  have you heard anything on the eog ops there?


----------



## Father Ted

Hi agentm

regarding the Kow, do you think that they will go back and frac the final 850 ft in the solid liner, using the 4 section frac as originally intended? - or call it a day?

regards

ft


----------



## onthebeach

Agentm said:


> onthebeach
> 
> thanks for the input, its more or less how i am seeing it.
> 
> on the beach, i am hearing there is a well or 2 in gonzales county that eclipsed bordovsky by factors of many times..  have you heard anything on the eog ops there?




Haven't heard about anything that far East, but I will be drinking a few beers tonight with one of EOG's area drilling engineers while watching the football game. Will let you know how many beans are spilled


----------



## Ramblin Round

Can someone brief me on the relationship between the Sugarloaf and Eagle Ford plays ? i.e- what does one have to do with another. In layman's terms that is.

I finally found a broker who can help me invest shares in Adelphi. I think I'll be holding in a few days and don't want to miss out before something big is announced.

Do your own research before investing. I am investing what I can afford to lose but this might turn into a long term holding if the flows are as expected from this and future wells. 

Best luck to all.


----------



## Agentm

Father Ted said:


> Hi agentm
> 
> regarding the Kow, do you think that they will go back and frac the final 850 ft in the solid liner, using the 4 section frac as originally intended? - or call it a day?
> 
> regards
> 
> ft




father

they will flow it first, i am sure once that is done they can look at the multistage section closer



onthebeach said:


> Haven't heard about anything that far East, but I will be drinking a few beers tonight with one of EOG's area drilling engineers while watching the football game. Will let you know how many beans are spilled





i want to watch that game tonight, so dont let on if texas wins until tomorrow ok!

try and get him tanked and grill him on the gonzales wells 




Ramblin Round said:


> Can someone brief me on the relationship between the Sugarloaf and Eagle Ford plays ? i.e- what does one have to do with another. In layman's terms that is.
> 
> I finally found a broker who can help me invest shares in Adelphi. I think I'll be holding in a few days and don't want to miss out before something big is announced.
> 
> Do your own research before investing. I am investing what I can afford to lose but this might turn into a long term holding if the flows are as expected from this and future wells.
> 
> Best luck to all.




theres a lot of signs that the eagleford and chalks are active in the acreages

the sugarkane is a play that conoco has named, its the combination of the chalsk and eagelford

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 
PAGE 2
DISCUSSION OF EVIDENCE
The Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field was discovered in September 2006. The field is classified as a non-associated gas field and operates under Statewide Rules. Two wells are carried on the proration schedule with one vertical well operated by Burlington and one horizontal well operated by Texas Crude Energy, Inc. (“Texas Crude”). However, Burlington has drilled and completed one additional vertical well and three horizontal wells that are not yet listed on the schedule. Production is from a depth of approximately 11,400
feet and the initial reservoir pressure and temperature was 8,653 psia and 287 degree F.

Cumulative production from the field through February 2009 is 324 MMCFG and 63.4 MBC.

Burlington requests that the correlative interval from 11,360 feet to 11,662 feet as shown on the log of the Burlington Resources O & G Co., LP - Kunde Lease, Well No. 1 (API No. 42-297-34621), be considered a single field known as the Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field. The proposed interval is bounded above by the Pecan Gap Shale and below by the tight Buda Limestone, both of which provide reservoir pressure seals. The Cretaceous formation was deposited in a deep shelf environment and is composed of
limestone with inter-bedded calcareous shales. The formation also contains natural fractures that enhance hydrocarbon production.

The discovery well for the field was the Burlington - Kunde Lease, Well No. 1. 
The well was a vertical well and was completed from 11,440 feet to 11,520 feet. This well was permanently classified as a gas well based on PVT analysis performed on September 12, 2006 and submitted for the well during a hearing held on February 9, 2007 in Oil & Gas Docket No. 02-0250021. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a Constant Composition Expansion (“CCE”) at pressures ranging from 8,000 psia down to 500 psia.

The original reservoir pressure was 8,653 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 5,072 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. 
Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.5 mol% methane and 10.4 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as
a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 32.4% at 3,000 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.5 degree API and a straw color.

The second well completed in the field was the Burlington - Baker Family Trust
Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,071 feet to 12,248 feet TVD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on April 14, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 12,022 psia down to 1,616 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,678 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single
phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,216 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 67.1 mol% methane and 7.2 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 13.3% at 2,014 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.0 degree API and a straw color.

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 3

The third well completed in the field was the Burlington - Kunde Lease, Well No. 3. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 11,805 feet to 14,405 feet MD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on June 27, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 10,000 psia down to 500 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,029 psia and the results of
the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,669 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure. Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.7 mol% methane and 10.1 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 27.5% at 3,000 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 52.9 degree API and a straw color.

The fourth well completed in the field was the Texas Crude - Kennedy Lease, Well No. 1H. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,232 feet to 12,253 feet TVD. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on November 20, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 9,000 psia down to 500 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 7,975 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,435 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure.
Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 61.5 mol% methane and 10.2 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 29.5% at 3,500 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 57.8 degree API and a straw color.

The fifth well completed in the field was the Burlington - Baker Family Trust Lease, Well No. 2. The well was a horizontal well and was completed from 12,165 feet to 12,316 feet TVD. No PVT analysis was performed on this well.
The sixth well completed in the field was the Burlington - Marlene Olson Lease, Well No. 1. The well was a vertical well and was completed from 12,026 feet to 12,213 feet. The PVT analysis for the well was performed on a fluid sample taken from the well on December 18, 2008. The recombined fluid was evaluated during a CCE at pressures ranging from 12,015 psia down to 2,430 psia. The original reservoir pressure was 9,439 psia and the results of the CCE indicates the reservoir fluid exists as a single phase gas
until the reservoir pressure reaches 4,422 psia, the retrograde dew point pressure.
Compositional analysis indicates the full wellstream to be 67.7 mol% methane and 7.0 mol% heptanes plus. The maximum retrograde liquid as a percent of hydrocarbon pore volume is 16.5% at 2,430 psia. The liquid sample had a gravity of 54.0 degree API and a straw color.
Statewide Rule 79 defines a gas well as “....A well which produces hydrocarbon liquids, a part of which is formed by a condensation from a gas phase and a part of which is crude petroleum oil, shall be classified as a gas well unless there is produced one barrel or more of crude petroleum oil per 100,000 cubic feet of natural gas; and that the term “crude petroleum oil” shall not be construed to mean any liquid hydrocarbon mixture or portion thereof which is not in the liquid phase in the reservoir, removed from the reservoir 

OIL AND GAS DOCKET NO. 02-0261131 PAGE 4

in such liquid phase, and obtained at the surface as such.”

Burlington believes that because the liquid hydrocarbons in this reservoir are
essentially non-existent, any liquid produced at the surface does not meet the definition of “crude petroleum oil”. Instead, the produced liquid is a product of condensation and should not be used as a basis for classification of the wells as oil wells.

Burlington also believes that all wells in the field should be permanently classified as gas wells, based on the available data for current wells in the field. All five of the wells that had PVT analysis performed in the field have passed most of the requirements for administrative classification as gas wells. Any additional wells completed in the field are expected to exhibit similar fluid characteristics and additional PVT analysis is unnecessary
for classification of wells as gas wells.

hope it helps.. no one really believes this apart from the lth in the jvp


----------



## Agentm

eog had a problem with lyssy 2 and plugged that well, and decided not to try a sidetrack that they put a permit in for..

new permit for eog lyssy 6, which is a replacement for the eog lyssy 2 h well that had problems and was plugged a few days ago

dan hughes has a further permit, next to the darlene 1 (drilled) and darlene 2 (currently drilling)  KASPRZYK-JENDRUSCH UNIT 1h


----------



## Agentm

repost of regional activity

3 regional views

bordovsky with conoco eog pioneer and murphy

north of kowalik  with adi and eaog and dan hughes

adi wells and conoco wells


----------



## Ramblin Round

> theres a lot of signs that the eagleford and chalks are active in the acreages
> 
> the sugarkane is a play that conoco has named, its the combination of the chalsk and eagelford





And just that I understand, what exactly does Adelphi have to do with all of this ??? In layman's terms again that is. Thank you.


----------



## Agentm

adi are in a jvp with tcei and hilcorp and a few other companies and hold a position in the acreages.

best read up on the adi website as to their position and also reference from there their last annual report and presentations

http://adelphienergy.com.au/


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yes thank you. i have already been through all thedata on their website with a fine tooth comb. The investors presentation PP was my favorite. 

Are there any Texas based production companies starting up based on this play that you know of ?


----------



## Ramblin Round

What is the relationship of Buru Energy to Adelphi ?


Other than Streitberg and Graham Riley who work for both companies ?

Do these people just run around starting businesses or are these more hot penny picks that stand to explode with ADI ?

Buru Energy's secretary Ms Kirsten Cadle resigned in 2008 and joined Adelphi. She just recently resigned from Adelphi and was replaced with Alex Forcke.

All of this was factual research discovered today while doing Google searches. What does it all mean ? What is the replationship between Adelphi and Buru Energy other than sharing the same graphiics for their websites ? And having same executive directors ?


----------



## Ramblin Round

http://www.buruenergy.com.au/web/Corporate_Information/Directors_and_Key_Staff/


And Adelphi energy ?

http://adelphienergy.com.au/corporate/directors_keystaff16.10.06.php



What does this all mean ? Simple turnover within the industry ?


----------



## Ramblin Round

New secretary again for Buru as part of a merger.

http://www.buruenergy.com.au/getfile/226.pdf


Forcke was head of financial services for ARC.

http://investing.businessweek.com/r...apId=4481909&previousTitle=ADELPHI ENERGY LTD

And everybody knows everybody (relationships)

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/people.asp?symbol=ADIHF:US

What does it mean ?


----------



## Ramblin Round

Adelphi Energy just changed its address to Murray Street, same as Buru Energy.


For convenience of the execs  maybe ? :dunno: 


http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=ADIHF:US


----------



## Ramblin Round

ARC/Buru merger. Could Adelphi be setting up for the next one ? Is that good or bad for the company ?


http://www.arcenergy.com.au/


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> ARC/Buru merger. Could Adelphi be setting up for the next one ? Is that good or bad for the company ?
> 
> 
> http://www.arcenergy.com.au/




ramblin

give them a call, speak to alex or chris, they can fill you in.. these no secret agendas nor cloak and dagger secrets, 

adi was a offshoot of arc energy (now awe)  buru an offshoot of the awe-arc energy merger/buyout..  buru contains the canning basin asset awe did not want.. its run by eric, a major shareholder and director of adi.

adi was set up to explore high risk high reward targets only, ones that arc back then would not be prudent to explore..

thats a 10 second version, but seriously, give them a ring, they will help you with all details of the company


----------



## Ramblin Round

Thanks for the info. I'm not hunting for bad news or conspiracies, just hunting for information. Thanks for the advice.



........................................................


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> Thanks for the info. I'm not hunting for bad news or conspiracies, just hunting for information. Thanks for the advice.
> 
> 
> 
> ........................................................




the annual report is pretty spot on

get rid of yemen, (partly completed) and use the cash on sugarkane and any new projects..

the sugarkane will keep adi on its toes this year, with 10 wells at a minimum and there being no question that more than 1 rig could easily be added, which would increase the well count many times over..

i am anticipating that hilcorp and tcei would in all liklihood escalate the program without much of a problem, other than the ability of the jvp to keep up.. the farmin imho was designed to allow the partner to meet minimum requirements, and its clear its not set at max.. imho that aspect is not being considered by many atm..

could easily become a whole new program imho

kowalik a few days back


----------



## jestex12

Posted Today in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists:

---------------------------------------
Eagle Ford Joins Shale Elite 
By LOUISE S. DURHAM, EXPLORER Correspondent 

A still-fledgling shale gas play appears to be on the cusp of snagging a sizeable spot in the limelight alongside U.S. shale gas heavyweights such as the Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett and others. 

The newbie lies in south Texas in the Cretaceous Eagle Ford shale, which is long known for sourcing hydrocarbons to Austin Chalk fields as well as the renowned East Texas field. The play extends from near the Mexican border outward to the east/northeast across several counties. 

It’s early in the drilling game, but so far the shale appears to offer relatively high well production rates and low drilling costs – a combo essentially guaranteed to warm the heart of any operator. 

This being Texas, there’s plenty of oil and gas infrastructure in place, along with large areas of ranch land available for leasing from owners long comfortable with – and knowledgeable about – the industry. 

In other words, this won’t be a repeat of the earlier frenzied leasing activity in the still-relatively new Jurassic Haynesville shale play concentrated in northwest Louisiana. As the hype intensified there, landowners began demanding – and receiving – lease bonuses that soared into the stratosphere in many instances. 

Petrohawk Energy Corp., which has hit significant home runs in the Haynesville play, was first up to the plate in the Eagle Ford play, where it now has 16 wells on production. 

The company drilled the discovery well – the STS-241 #1H – in the fall of 2008 in what would be christened Hawkville Field. The horizontal well in LaSalle County flowed 7.6 MMcf and 250 barrels of condensate per day from the Eagle Ford. 

Petrohawk validated the play when it moved about 14 miles to the southwest and drilled the Dora Martin #1-H. 

In contrast to the discovery well, the horizontally drilled Dora Martin tested 8.3 MMcf/d with no condensate, even though completed at essentially the same TVD of 11,500 feet. 

*‘Something Funky’:*
This difference in production makeup is an intriguing aspect of the play. 

The Hawkville, where Petrohawk holds 216,000 net acres, is in a kind of mini-basin, or natural topographic low, containing high porosity and high-resistivity facies, and positioned between the Edwards and the Sligo shelf margins. 

The field is characterized by a downdip dry gas play in the southwest, a mid-dip gas/condensate and an updip oil play. 

“There’s something funky going on,” said AAPG member Dick Stoneburner, executive vice president and COO at Petrohawk. “There’s burial history or a lot of things you can throw into the equation on why there are different thermal maturities at each end. 

“We think it’s pretty clear it’s mainly a function of burial history,” he said. “The southwest end of the field at one part was considerably deeper than today, but it’s been uplifted. 

“This is a plausible interpretation based on the presence of the Chittim arch, which is a prominent Laramide feature,” Stoneburner said. “That would have had the ability to affect that end of the field and have it uplifted to the present depth, so the theory has support based on burial history and regional tectonics.” 

With regard to mineralogical makeup, the Eagle Ford is a different breed of cat from what you might expect in a shale. Some samples contain as much as 70 percent calcite and a goodly bit of silica, with average clay content tallying 11 percent, according to Stoneburner. 

“It’s very brittle rock and not water sensitive,” he said. “It has the perfect mineralogical makeup for a shale gas play.” 

He noted that the Eagle Ford is so full of gas and so permeable, the rock actually falls apart as the gas is liberated when a core is brought up to, say, 15 pounds of pressure. 

“We haven’t seen any fracturing in the Eagle Ford core data we’ve seen,” Stoneburner commented. “This is a key difference with the Haynesville.”

*The Price Is Right: *

The Eagle Ford wells appear to lack the high deliverability or ultimate recovery potential of the impressive Haynesville shale wells, but they’re far less expensive on a per well basis. In fact, the development cost comparison between the Haynesville, Marcellus and Eagle Ford indicates they’re very comparable, according to Stoneburner. 

He noted Petrohawk’s first Eagle Ford well topped out at $14 million and required 60 days from spud date to TD. The last 10 wells they drilled averaged about 17 drilling days and ran up an average tab of $5 million each. 

Stoneburner emphasized geophysical support helped considerably to extend the limits of Hawkville beyond what was originally mapped. The field now spans 90 miles east-west and 15 miles north-south. 

The company has an extensive 2-D grid and anticipates receiving its first set of 3-D data in the first quarter of 2010. More 3-D data will be coming in later, which is a good thing given that Petrohawk has latched on to yet another 25,000 net acres outside Hawkville. 

Pioneer Natural Resources recently announced a major Eagle Ford discovery near Pawnee Field in Live Oak County about 60 miles southeast of San Antonio. 

The Sinor #5 well reportedly flowed at an initial rate of approximately 8.3 MMcf/d and 500 barrels of condensate per day. The well was completed in a 2,300-foot lateral with a nine-stage frac stimulation. It reached a TVD of approximately 13,000 feet. 

According to Scott Sheffield, chairman and CEO at Pioneer, the initial results of the well were highly encouraging, particularly given the significant volume of condensate and natural gas liquids. A second well has kicked off, and more are planned across the company’s reported 310,000 gross acres in the play. 

Pioneer has considerable experience drilling horizontal wells in the Edwards section, underlying the Eagle Ford. 

Leasing activity is going gangbusters throughout the play where a number of other familiar names are in the game, including EOG, Swift, Anadarko and St. Mary Land & Exploration. 

Perhaps the most profound yet unspoken statement about the play’s potential is that the big guys are here as well. 

Both ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil have reportedly acquired large acreage positions but are keeping mum on their plans. 

*Optimism rules:*

“The recent results of other active players in the trend bodes very well for establishment of a much more regional accumulation than just Hawkville field,” Stoneburner said, “and we’re encouraged by the success of other players and the expansion of the play. 

“We think the activity will change dramatically over the course of the next year,” he added, “and change positively.”


----------



## Agentm

this site is so much more easy to post on.. mention that adi has value on hc and you get nailed!

jestex, the article is great,, read this one?

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stoc...le-Ford-Shale-HK-COP-SM-ROSE-APC-EPD0111.aspx



CORRECTED Murphy Oil Announces Results from First Eagle Ford Shale Well and Update of Drilling Activities 

EL DORADO, Ark. - (Business Wire) Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) announced encouraging results from their first well drilled in the Eagle Ford Shale in McMullen County, Texas. Two appraisal wells drilled in Malaysia encountered less than prognosticated oil pays and were abandoned. In the Gulf of Mexico, the Company announced its participation in the Deep Blue prospect currently being drilled in Green Canyon.

A discovery was made at the George Miles #1H well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The well was drilled vertically to a depth of 13,320 feet then completed in a 3,190 ft. horizontal section with a 13 stage fracture stimulation. *The well flowed at an initial rate of approximately 7.5 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.* President and Chief Executive Officer, David M. Wood, commented “We are very pleased by the results of our first well in this promising Eagle Ford Shale play and by the quality of the acreage we have accumulated. *We are currently drilling our second well in Karnes County to evaluate another tranche of our leasehold, and expect to stay very active in this play throughout the year.” *


----------



## jestex12

Agentm,

Great article!!!  Seems like 2010 is going to be the revival of the Gold Rush!!


----------



## estseon

That George Miles well seems to be in the dry gas zone and it's quite deep.

According to EME accounts, Kennedy was 11,845, Kowalik 11,970 and Weston 11,916 vertical depth (kick off). The fraccing was slightly more aggressive: every 245 ft length vs 270 ft length planned by ADI. I don't know if that means anything.

Of more interest will be their next one in our county.


----------



## jestex12

*Worlds Largest Producer of Natural Gas?? Now It's The U.S.!!*

http://seekingalpha.com/article/182347-worlds-largest-producer-of-natural-gas-now-it-s-u-s


*6 Stocks Headed For Explosive Growth In Eagle Ford Shale*

The Eagle Ford Shale will break out of the shale pack in 2010, as the exploration and production industry accelerates its development in South Texas. The area remains attractive due to its low break-even cost, high liquids content and large lease sizes relative to other shale plays.

Petrohawk Energy (NYSE:HK) is one of the acknowledged leaders in the Eagle Ford Shale, and has 225,000 net acres under lease, with as many as 2,700 net drilling locations. The company is devoting $350 million in capital here in 2010, and plans a total of 82 operated and non-operated wells. 

In 2010, the play moves to the Northeast of current development, where Petrohawk Energy has identified an oil formation at its Red Hawk prospect. This area is 89,000 net acres. The company started a well in December 2009, and should have results in early 2010.

Lots Of Liquid
The Eagle Ford Shale is currently attractive because of the high amount of liquids and condensate in the mix. Conoco Phillips (NYSE:COP) is one of the few majors in the play, with approximately 300,000 acres under lease. The company recently drilled the Bordovsky A-7 well, which was flowing at a production rate of four million cubic feet per day of natural gas, along with 1,500 barrels per day of condensate.

This high liquid content makes the Eagle Ford Shale economically competitive with both the Haynesville and Marcellus Shale. Scotia Waterous estimates that the liquids-rich areas of the Eagle Ford Shale will earn operators a 10% rate of return at a natural gas price of $2.73 per MMBTU.

The Shift To Horizontal
In 2010, several exploration and production companies will transition from a vertical to a horizontal well program. St. Mary Land & Exploration (NYSE:SM) has 225,000 net acres prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale. The company reported several high production rate completions in 2009, and will move forward with a large-scale development program in 2010. 

Rosetta Resources (Nasdaq:ROSE) is also developing its properties in the Eagle Ford Shale. The Company just announced its 2010 capital budget and will operate three rigs in the Eagle Ford Shale. Rosetta Resources also added to its acreage positions, and now has 52,000 net acres here. 

Other companies are taking time to get into this shale. Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) has 350,000 gross acres in the Maverick Basin, and drilled four horizontal wells in the third quarter of 2009. The company has not announced any large-scale development plans for 2010, as it has its hands full with its Gulf of Mexico assets and a possible ramp up in the Marcellus Shale.

Infrastructure continues to be a problem in these fast growing shale plays, and the industry is trying to keep up with that production growth. Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) is currently building two pipelines in the area that will add 200 million cubic feet per day of capacity. These pipelines are expected to be complete in early 2010.

The Bottom Line
The Eagle Ford Shale will be a major focus of the exploration and production industry in 2010 due to its early stage of development and the high amount of liquids and condensate in completed wells, making it competitive with other North American Shale plays


----------



## Agentm

drilling drilling drilling

conocophillips finished the plomero well and is drilling eskew north, which sits next to the kunde 3 well just west of adi acreages in live oak

pioneer is drilling the handy 1h well a few miles south of the conoco bordovsky well that flowed at 4mmcfpd and 1500 bopd.

eog just continues to drill with the 3 rigs in karnes county, the next wells to go these past days is the milton 10h and the harper 2h

murphy is drilling drees 1h a few miles west of bordovsky

dan hughes would have just completed the second development well, darlene 2h well just a bit north of kowalik a few miles..

we know that the easley well is about to commence for adi

busy times right now for karnes county and surrounds


----------



## condog

Guys n gals unless you know something i dont why on earth would anyone invest in ADI over AUT....

AUT smaller market cap , thus more leverage to the same projects in Sugerkane (sounds wrong, should be called sugar loaf)

AUT significantly more cash to equity

AUT significantly more tenement exposure to the area.....


Like I said maybee im missing something, but ive been looking into this on and off for a week now and cannot see any reasoin why ADI is remnotely as attractive as AUT.....  Please smack me round the head and tell me if im missing something as Im ready to pull the trigger....

Dont get me wrong ADI looks great toooooo, but in initial analysis i plucked AUT over ADI or buy both????

I guess what i want you to say is if you have a reason ADI is the better pick please say so...


----------



## condog

Correction ADI mcap $25m , AUT mcap $59M and that puts ADI back in the running, but AUT still has huge tenemant control of 20300 acres net after farm ins.. just in sugar kane

Any one know the tenemant area that ADI has at sugarkane its net or gross area... but please state pre or post farmin if you know it ta,,, have looked extensively and cant find it...

Anyone?


----------



## condog

I took the plunge on AUT as i liked that it has virtually no sell volumes every time i look..... not rulling out ADI , it looks good so may end up in it to....

Still would like to know why you would or have picked ADI over AUT given they are so closely related....


----------



## sam76

I may be wrong, but...

I think you'll find AUT needs to either drill the acreages they have or they lose the leases.

The leases must be coming up for renewal soon

AUT doesn't have the cash for that much drilling unless it raises a lot more capital or farms in.

so, bascially it has bitten off more than it can chew.


----------



## condog

sam76 said:


> I may be wrong, but...
> 
> I think you'll find AUT needs to either drill the acreages they have or they lose the leases.
> 
> The leases must be coming up for renewal soon
> 
> AUT doesn't have the cash for that much drilling unless it raises a lot more capital or farms in.
> 
> so, bascially it has bitten off more than it can chew.




Thanks Sam i actually looked hard for some expirey dates and no mention that i could find other then a 2008 pdf which stated Feb 2010....but they where relient on exploratory work and did not stipulate that they required drilling...
So my guess is they are OK... the acerages ive worke off are in the most recent reports...
In any case Sugarkane looks IMO (please DYOR & Seek expert advice) set to skyrocket the sp of both ADI and AUT.... if they manage to get 10 wells flowing with good flow rates in 2010 as funded and planned .... then my god...hold on tight.... bu thats pure speculation till it happens.....

AUT in thier investor presnetation said if all 10 wells flowed they aimed for market cap of 200-600M within 12 months....thats insane .... and for ADI that would be more given thier interest is the same at 20% and they are comming of a market cap half the size....

Looks like interesting times ahead...

DISC - DYOR, seek expert advice, cross check all information....this is all unqualified  opinioon and i mean it...


----------



## sam76

Don't forget they all will lose 50% of their holdings if the farm in is successful.

damn 100 charecters, lol


----------



## Agentm

thanks sam

if i comment on eka or aut we all know the consequences.. lol

condog.  there are small caps on the asx holding such vast acreages in the eagelford they have little ability to fund the infrastructure, pipelines and well costs to extract the oil..

my view is that adi has always had a larger shareholder, arc energy initially then later awe. this shareholder would have imho had a big impact on whether adi went crazy and bought up massive acreages. i think restraint and a conservative and calculated approach can also deliver very good upsides to a company. and there is no doubt adi has had many opportunities to increase its acreage position in texas in the shale..

if your going to hold these acres, then you need massive capital, you need to fund the acreages themselves with lease buying. $300 - $500 an acre..($5 mill in costs every 3 years if you hold 10,000 acres) and if you hold them then you have to have the funds for the costs related to the drilling. if you hold 80% of the leases in your name then you generally need to cough up 80% of the well drilling costs ($5 - $8 mill each easy), pipeline costs, pipeline leases, and mineral leases. and all associated plant and equipment costs at the well sites.  you also have to gauge the companies ability to deliver these wells to their shareholders. (look for announcements relating to cap raisings and promises of wells over the years for a clue there) 

we are talking 100's upon 100's of millions needed..

thats why there are some small caps on the asx right now screaming for a takeover or buyout of their positions, if they dont, then you have to calculate the dilution to their respective sp to raise capital, and also if a company of that size has the ability to raise the capital needed in any case.

some of these small caps have acreages that mid size oilers in the usa cant even contemplate handling.. some of these guys cant raise 150 mill or 300 mill in a few months i am certain..

it all a case of dyor and work out for yourself how much things will cost, work out if its well calculated, does the forward plan meet the capabilities of the cash reserves, the capabilities of the management, and work out what dilutions may be occurring in the future should the forward plans start to unfold..

makes it an interesting exercise in practicalities.. sometime having it all is simply too much..

all imho and dyor


----------



## sam76

No worries Agent M.

I'm going to let my thoughts build up until i have more than 100 letters next time though.

Copped a kick in butt for that last post, lol


----------



## mir

condog i think you made the right choice ( i only hold aut & eka but think all 3are great value )
aut is the best value out of all 3 imho.

reason  
adi has 150 million shares & approx 4500 to 5000 net acres pre farm out
3 fracs 3 new wells inc fracs done by hilcorp

aut has 200 million shares & approx 18000 net acres pre farm out.
3 fracs 7 new wells inc fracs, 4 of these will be on their extra acres done by hilcorp. aut extra acres are near conocos bordovski well ,so plenty of action there.

sam76 i think these 4 extra wells done by hilcorp are to fill their obiligation on the extra acres

so i think if the sugarcane is as good as everyone thinks, funding will not be a problem after the 10 well program or a possible sellout of acres once true value is recognised.

been here since day 1 of sugarloaf well have felt many a frustration over the years


----------



## condog

Agent thats an interesting and extremely well informed viewpoint on the acerage holding costs....

AUT seems to have sugarkane sorted with the ADI / EKA arrangments holding 20% in sugerkane, 50% in longhorn and 80% in Ipanema after the farmin/out to hillcorp...

I hear what you say and have taken it on board....thanks...

Looking into ADI more tonight ....


----------



## Miner

mir said:


> condog i think you made the right choice ( i only hold aut & eka but think all 3are great value )
> aut is the best value out of all 3 imho.
> 
> reason
> adi has 150 million shares & approx 4500 to 5000 net acres pre farm out
> 3 fracs 3 new wells inc fracs done by hilcorp
> 
> aut has 200 million shares & approx 18000 net acres pre farm out.
> 3 fracs 7 new wells inc fracs, 4 of these will be on their extra acres done by hilcorp. aut extra acres are near conocos bordovski well ,so plenty of action there.
> 
> sam76 i think these 4 extra wells done by hilcorp are to fill their obiligation on the extra acres
> 
> so i think if the sugarcane is as good as everyone thinks, funding will not be a problem after the 10 well program or a possible sellout of acres once true value is recognised.
> 
> been here since day 1 of sugarloaf well have felt many a frustration over the years




MIR

Nothing related to ADI :topic

But I noticed the posting suggests this was your first posting though you are in ASF since 2006.

I am sure this shows you are also one of those patience investors who make good returns by virtue of their patiently wait game on some scrips.

Good work and replying to this will be your second posting - Ha Ha


----------



## condog

Miner said:


> MIR
> 
> Nothing related to ADI :topic
> 
> Good work and replying to this will be your second posting - Ha Ha




Its a legit topic as the two are so similar and in huge JV together ....sorry if anyones thinks its off topic, but who better to come to, for reason to split the two hairs so to speak...and the dialogue above has been excellent for anyone considering one ro both....  I certainly very much appreciated the input....

It confirmed some of my thoughts, challeneged others and raised a few issues to further investigate...Great stuff..


----------



## mir

now for no 2 miner   just answering condogs question from earlier today.
whether you invest in adi aut eka i think there is significant up side in all 3.
i have attended  many presentations in the early days  of the sugarcane re the potential .tcei  had alot of data on the chalks back then via jv with conoco and some other old wells (this info was kept quiet due to leasing activities).the condensate & gas has always been there just a matter of getting fracs right & i think others are getting there .if we can get a resonable result on kowalik we should be away, given not ideal completion. 
this is why i have been patient.


----------



## Miner

condog said:


> Its a legit topic as the two are so similar and in huge JV together ....sorry if anyones thinks its off topic, but who better to come to, for reason to split the two hairs so to speak...and the dialogue above has been excellent for anyone considering one ro both....  I certainly very much appreciated the input....
> 
> It confirmed some of my thoughts, challeneged others and raised a few issues to further investigate...Great stuff..




Hi Mir

Your topic was right on ADI

I raised the point stating mine was off the topic as it was unrelated to ADI . Basically I was stirring instigating you to make another posting. YOu did  Not bad and think if our share prices go up double on a day ?

So  Mir enjoy your multiple postings


----------



## Agentm

mir said:


> now for no 2 miner   just answering condogs question from earlier today.
> whether you invest in adi aut eka i think there is significant up side in all 3.
> i have attended  many presentations in the early days  of the sugarcane re the potential .tcei  had alot of data on the chalks back then via jv with conoco and some other old wells (this info was kept quiet due to leasing activities).the condensate & gas has always been there just a matter of getting fracs right & i think others are getting there .if we can get a resonable result on kowalik we should be away, given not ideal completion.
> this is why i have been patient.




totally agree with you on all things mir and great to see you post..

my view on aut was it was a bold decision to venture into the acreages and i absolutely hope your long term hold on eka and aut pays off.. which i think it will..

aut eka and adi all have exposure to the eagleford, with aut definitely having the lions share on acreages

good luck to all holders in all all jvp partners, these next days will deliver news on the flowrates of kowalik, and a new well being drilled and of course two more fracs are about to commence

low volumes on the shares, but a steady increase in the sp is being given to all jvp partners..

50% increase in the eka price in 15 days
12% increase for adi price in 15 days

liking the way its going myself


----------



## adobee

I think ADI is really testing 18c barrier again today with little available for purchase by those on the side line.. ( good to see some shares have already traded before lunch time .. things must be heating up..  )  I would like to 18c broken and then become some support for this one..   today could be the day..


----------



## Agentm

easley well site is on the go as reported in adi's last release. fencing is going up and the pad is being readied right now.  

a rig can easily be pur on the site by the end of the month as suggested in the last report.


----------



## mir

agentm i have been reading your posts for years and enjoyed the doubters  doubt your posts on the regional play & all the major players involved (& even a mod who has gone very quiet of late ,cant remember what forum)
the info i received was pretty much the same as yours & came from a very reliable source .


----------



## Bigukraine

not quiet the ann. that ADI holders were waiting for and all we can do now is look forward to the next two well's


----------



## condog

Bigukraine said:


> not quiet the ann. that ADI holders were waiting for and all we can do now is look forward to the next two well's




Its fine they will sort that,,,

Also two + announcments re other wells to boot so no big shakes IMO , if anything the update on the other two  is fine...technical glitches like this happen..


----------



## Bigukraine

condog said:


> Its fine they will sort that,,,
> 
> Also two + announcments re other wells to boot so no big shakes IMO , if anything the update on the other two  is fine...technical glitches like this happen..




Thanks for that condog,just feels like friday the 13th not 15th:topic just the
ctp ann of coal and the "rocketing" share price (pardon the cynicism) and this ann from adi didn't meet my expectations for the day:cussing:


----------



## adobee

adobee said:


> I think ADI is really testing 18c barrier again today with little available for purchase by those on the side line.. ( good to see some shares have already traded before lunch time .. things must be heating up..  )  I would like to 18c broken and then become some support for this one..   today could be the day..




okay i will refrain from making any more comments on any shares i own .. the second i hint that its looking rosey they drop a bomb or the share price doesnt react ..  i will start some real negative talk that should do the trick ..


----------



## Agentm

easley about to be drilled

kennedy about to be fracced

kowalik suspended until the current down hole issue is carefully thought through and solved. with two more operations on the way its probably stretching things a little to have all three things going at once. taking a step back and planning things properly is a good move

starting to believe the kowalik well was cursed in some way.. this is really a problematic well for tcei.. 


15 January 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) provides an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Kowalik #1H - Fracture Stimulation Program

Following the decision to tie back the liner at Kowalik #1H, having observed an anomalous pressure drop at the end of the main fracture stimulation stage, a rig was mobilized to the wellsite to carry out the necessary work. During one of the final stages of this work, when cement had been circulated into the annulus of the tie back string, a section of slim drill pipe being used as a running string for the tie back string parted some 700ft below surface.
The initial fishing activities have so far recovered tubing down to a depth of 8,150ft but in light of the other activities commencing within the Sugarloaf AMI, it has been decided to suspend operations on Kowalik #1H so that further evaluation and planning can take place before reentering the well.

The workover rig is presently being demobilised from the location. This will lead to a further delay before Kowalik #1H can be prepared for flow testing following the fracture stimulation carried out on 28 December 2009.

Easley #1H Spud Date for new Horizontal Well

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (TCEI), that the Patterson #150 drilling rig commenced mobilization to the Easley #1H rig site on Thursday, 14 January 2010. It is expected that the well will be spudded early in the week beginning 18 January 2010. Easley #1H is the first new well to be drilled under the farmin agreement with Hilcorp Energy within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Kennedy #1H Scheduled Commencement of Fracture Stimulation Program

Adelphi has been advised by TCEI that the Kennedy #1H fracture stimulation is scheduled to commence on Monday, 18 January 2010. As previously advised, the 4,000ft of horizontal liner will be fracced in 14 separate stages with an isolation plug set between each stage. The operation is expected to take 7 10 days after which the isolating plugs will be drilled out and the well cleaned up and then flowed to sales.


----------



## mir

i also feel like pulling the rest of my teeth out but was told early in the piece it would take several wells to get drilling ,completions & fracs right (& now mechanical failure) kawalik is the 2nd horizontal well to be drilled.           then it will become a numbers game with some wells  performing better than others especially in the chalks due to natural fractures.


----------



## choppy

AgentM or others:

Any word on how Burlington did with the Plomero Ranch well?  Haven't heard anything about it myself,  also haven't heard anything about Pioneer's Crawley well.


----------



## Annwn

An updated chart to show where trading is at.
Broke upwards from trading range Sept 09 and went to .185 an increase of 264% 

has been trading between .12 and .185 since Oct 09, has had a few tries at the .185

I currently hold


----------



## Agentm

choppy

cant seem to get any info on their wells, all i hear about is the antares well in mcmullen and bordovsky and of course the eog wells mainly..

plenty of drilling in karnes with 

pioneer - 1 rig 
eog - have to be 3 at least
dan hughes - 1 rig
TCEI - 1 rig presently

kennedy is being fracced right now

a hell of a lot busier than last year when the gfc and oil slump killed the share..

agree with you annwn. the charts look good..

great turnover for aut today and some small buying for adi also

early days.. but everyones very upbeat still on the sugarkane


----------



## choppy

Well the word is out on the Pioneer Crawley:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=85928&hmpn=1

Best well in the dry gas trend so far. 
17 mmcf/d.  
WOW.  
Starting to sound like Haynesville numbers.


----------



## condog

Yep AUT broke through its upper resistance line which is always very nice, however saying that by 7-10 days when #1 Kennedy and #1 Easley are likely to be done, I think the last few and next few days will seem so rediculously  insignificant...

ADI, AUT and EKA need to get very smart on this and do a major combined press release when they flow thier first major one....  Im sure the floor will know by the volumes, but they need to get out from under the radar to all the news paper readers....

IMO the next few days  to month will be the beginning of a major re-pricing on these stocks....once flow rates and possibly two wells are flowing, there would be funds and major investors that want to cash in on the small punters taking small profits....


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Well the word is out on the Pioneer Crawley:
> 
> http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=85928&hmpn=1
> 
> Best well in the dry gas trend so far.
> 17 mmcf/d.
> WOW.
> Starting to sound like Haynesville numbers.









"Pioneer Natural Resources Drills Second Successful Eagle Ford Shale Well

DALLAS, Jan 19, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
Pioneer Natural Resources Company today announced its second significant well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Robert Crawley Gas Unit #1 well, which is located in Live Oak County, Texas, flowed at an initial production rate of approximately 17 million cubic feet of gas per day on a 24/64 inch choke with 7,300 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. It was drilled to a true vertical depth of approximately 14,000 feet and completed in a 5,400-foot lateral section with a 16-stage fracture stimulation (frac). The well is currently producing to sales.
The new well is located approximately three miles south of Pioneer's previously announced liquids-rich Sinor #5 discovery well. The Eagle Ford Shale formation at the Crawley #1 location is 1,000 feet deeper and has a 30% thicker pay zone than at the Sinor #5 location.
Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated, "As a continuation of our multi-well program to assess our acreage position, the objective of the Crawley #1 was to test productivity towards the dry gas window in a deeper, thicker Eagle Ford Shale section with a longer lateral and additional frac stages. With the highest gas rate reported to date in the play, the Crawley #1 exceeded our expectations and confirms that dry gas wells provide strong economics at today's prices. These results increase our confidence that the Eagle Ford Shale will be very prolific in both the liquids-rich and dry gas portions of our extensive acreage position and will add significant value for our shareholders."
To accelerate Eagle Ford Shale development, the Company is actively pursuing a joint venture, with bids expected in the second quarter of 2010. In response to the joint venture effort and in preparation for an aggressive development drilling program to be initiated in this play, Pioneer formed a new asset team to focus solely on the Eagle Ford Shale. Management responsibilities within Pioneer associated with the establishment of this team are detailed in a separate press release issued by the Company today.
Pioneer is a technology leader in this play with greater than 2,000 square miles of 3-D seismic data, logs from more than 150 operated wells, proprietary core samples and micro-seismic results. The Company is currently operating a two-rig horizontal drilling program, with wells in DeWitt and Karnes Counties underway, both of which are targeting liquids-rich areas."

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/...-successful-eagle-ford-shale-well-711124.html


----------



## Ramblin Round

Here's the info on Pioneer's team they just put together for the Eagle Ford play mentioned in that report.


http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=90959&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1376521






> Pioneer Natural Resources Announces New Executive Management Responsibilities
> DALLAS, Jan 19, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSEXD) today announced the formation of a new Eagle Ford Shale Asset Team and the realignment of responsibilities for certain Executive Vice Presidents (EVPs) who are members of Pioneer's Management Committee. These changes are effective immediately and will support the Company's plans to potentially accelerate development of its sizable acreage position in the Eagle Ford Shale, including active pursuit of a joint venture partner, and to ramp up Spraberry drilling and other Permian services.
> William F. Hannes, formerly EVP Business Development, has been named EVP South Texas Operations. Two asset teams will report to Mr. Hannes, the existing South Texas Asset Team and the newly formed Eagle Ford Shale Asset Team. The new Eagle Ford Shale Asset Team will focus on executing Pioneer's Eagle Ford JV strategy while preparing to initiate an aggressive development drilling program in the play.
> 
> Danny L. Kellum, formerly EVP Domestic Operations, has been named EVP Permian Operations and will focus his attention on Pioneer's expanding Permian activities, with executive responsibility for the Permian Asset Team and Permian integrated services. Pioneer plans to drill 1,000 wells per year by 2012 in the Spraberry Trend, the Company's largest asset.
> 
> Jay P. Still, EVP Domestic Operations, will add executive responsibility for Pioneer's Mid-Continent operations to his current responsibilities for the Company's Rockies, Alaska and Barnett Shale assets.
> 
> Chris J. Cheatwood, formerly EVP Geoscience, has been named EVP Business Development and Technology and will have executive responsibility for business development and geoscience/engineering technology.
> 
> Scott D. Sheffield, Pioneer's Chairman and CEO, stated, "Considering the magnitude of opportunity we foresee in the Spraberry Trend and Eagle Ford Shale, we have realigned our executive team to optimize our ability to capture and accelerate the value of these strategic assets."
> 
> Pioneer is a large independent oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, with operations primarily in the United States. For more information, visit Pioneer's website at www.pxd.com.


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Well the word is out on the Pioneer Crawley:
> 
> http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=85928&hmpn=1
> 
> Best well in the dry gas trend so far.
> 17 mmcf/d.
> WOW.
> Starting to sound like Haynesville numbers.




choppy, whats your thoughts on bee county,  crimson have drilled a few there and no news.. anyone hearing anything on their efforts?

(not to mention a very distant tcei jvp well down there a good while back)


----------



## condog

Agent where for art thou...

I want my daily dose of ADI and your missing in action.....

Come on mate lets have it....whats your thoughs for the day...


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yeah what's the deal, hand ? Went down to Karnes County last week and lost count of all the new rigs that are up in that area.


----------



## Tordilla Kid

*Recent Sugarkane Drilling Permits*

No insight here, just some facts from TRCC site.  Things are picking up.  Six drilling permits have been approved in the Sugarkane since 12/01/2009.  Only ten permits were approved in Sugarkane the previous 12 months (11/30/2008 to 11/30/2009).  

There are many additional approved drilling permits updip and downdip of Sugarkane.  

Can't post links to details yet as this is my first post.  So I just listed the company and name of the well FYI.  

BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333) -- MARALDO A403

BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333) -- ESKEW NORTH UNIT

TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. (845062) -- EASLEY 28-1

TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. (845062) -- MORGAN 228-2

BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333) -- F. MALEK

BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP (109333) -- BUTLER A-304


----------



## condog

Are these two part of the JV agreement involving ADI, AUT and EKA??

TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. (845062) -- EASLEY 28-1

TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC. (845062) -- MORGAN 228-2

DJIA south by 200 at 4am...


----------



## Agentm

copy of the marlene olsen well completion.. ip only

marlene olsen sits west of the adi acreages a few miles, its a conoco well

perhaps a comment bubba?


----------



## condog

Ive not seen a form of this type so am not exactly sure on the raw data details...

Most the RCC data I see is an a report indicating its meaning...not the raw data like this

But it would seem??? a massive find given huge depth distance bewteen TOL and BOL... across one small formation  and subsequent producing interval of over 4000ft ???

Im not entirely sure on thier raw data they are reporting, but it would seem those Gas volumes per day are insanely high....unless im misreading it.... and especially if they are from the 4000ft interval...

The Pioneer Crawley was reported at 17 million cubic feet of gas per day on a 24/64 inch choke with 7,300 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure... if that helps anyone

These latest ones appear to be on a smaller choke so thats getting out of my current league of interpretation...but my understanding was a smaller choke size inhibits flow volume, but raises pressure....and thus the same flow rate on a smaller choke indicates a higher volume....could be wrong on this and happy to have it blatently pointed out if i am please...

I have no idea how to interperet the related choke size pressures in section 2 and what they mean other then that in paragraph above...

Is that the way anyone else is reading it.... ....

Thus if thats correct, section 1 is inticating rediculously high gas volumes in Mcf per day.....

Anyone else???


In reference to Tordilla Kid's post - Im assuming Easley is the Easely as part of JVA.....
And the other TCEI is also part ???


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

That completion report indicates flow rates between 2 and 3 million per day.  (17 million is 17,000 mcf condog).  The gas oil ration indicated that depending if they are producing 3 million per day they will be making around 850 barrels of condensate a day.  That is 283 barrels per million.  The flow rates don't have to be adjusted for choke size as they are calculated using choke size and pressure (for dry gas).

That is a pretty good flow rate for a well that is only acidized.  I personally don't understand why burlington isn't fraccing their wells in this area.  I think these wells are probably in the Austin Chalk not the Eagleford and that is why the difference in completion. 

Answering your earlier question about the Crimson well:  They have drilled and cased a vertical pilot well, and plan to go horizontal this spring is what I hear.
There original play was a backreef edwards/sligo play, but they have the Austin Chalk/Eagleford as well.


----------



## condog

choppy said:


> AgentM,
> 
> That completion report indicates flow rates between 2 and 3 million per day.  (17 million is 17,000 mcf condog).  The gas oil ration indicated that depending if they are producing 3 million per day they will be making around 850 barrels of condensate a day.  That is 283 barrels per million.  The flow rates don't have to be adjusted for choke size as they are calculated using choke size and pressure (for dry gas).
> 
> That is a pretty good flow rate for a well that is only acidized.  I personally don't understand why burlington isn't fraccing their wells in this area.  I think these wells are probably in the Austin Chalk not the Eagleford and that is why the difference in completion.
> 
> Answering your earlier question about the Crimson well:  They have drilled and cased a vertical pilot well, and plan to go horizontal this spring is what I hear.
> There original play was a backreef edwards/sligo play, but they have the Austin Chalk/Eagleford as well.




ahh yess ta....overlooked that one....
Thanks for such a detailed and timely correction ...
Whats the average cut off depth for the shale to chalk


----------



## Agentm

thats how i read it choppy

thanks for that, and also the crimson well info..

this in nov 09 from them

South Texas
In October 2009, we spudded the Dubose #1 exploratory well in our NW Pawnee prospect in Bee County, Texas targeting the Edwards, Eagleford Shale and Austin Chalk objectives. We recently reached our total vertical depth objective and are currently evaluating our next steps. Crimson is the operator with a 40% working interest after casing point. 


i was curious about the marlene olsen just having an acid job, its very typical of conoco there, all these wells seem to have different completions, all are very much experimental. and we know that halliburton has published on their website the cobra frac being used in the eagleford.. and conoco is the operator they refer to and bordovsky was the success story!!

http://www.halliburton.com/ps/default.aspx?navid=1614&pageid=3027


conoco put a P&A on kunde 2 a few days back, they dont need that well anymore, it was designed to assist in getting data on the kunde 3 well when they were fraccing it.. i believe eme had a partnership in it.

extremely optimistic on adi atm, not hearing any negativity on the play at all. i think the hilcorp initiative speaks loudly myself, and the possibility of the adi wells being fracced and exceeding the acid treatment wells of cop imho is distinct eventuality. i would be staggered if they flowed less..

if you get 3 mmcfpd on acid treatments in the chalks, the presentation of adi recently start to bring home what the upside can be..

i may be buying more in the very near future..


----------



## adobee

New Sugarloaf AMI update out... looking good.. right on time too to get rid of the 16c sellers... would love a push past 18c resistance


----------



## Bigukraine

adobee said:


> New Sugarloaf AMI update out... looking good.. right on time too to get rid of the 16c sellers... would love a push past 18c resistance




hi adobee,
Had a small holding on this and sold out on CTP to top up and on the ann looks like i've got on the right train. Nice to see no probs and all going well at the moment .175 was a good finish and am looking forward to next week . finally looks like things going in right direction !!!!


----------



## Bubba Oil

choppy said:


> AgentM,
> 
> That completion report indicates flow rates between 2 and 3 million per day.  (17 million is 17,000 mcf condog).  The gas oil ration indicated that depending if they are producing 3 million per day they will be making around 850 barrels of condensate a day.  That is 283 barrels per million.  The flow rates don't have to be adjusted for choke size as they are calculated using choke size and pressure (for dry gas).
> 
> That is a pretty good flow rate for a well that is only acidized.  I personally don't understand why burlington isn't fraccing their wells in this area.  I think these wells are probably in the Austin Chalk not the Eagleford and that is why the difference in completion.
> 
> Answering your earlier question about the Crimson well:  They have drilled and cased a vertical pilot well, and plan to go horizontal this spring is what I hear.
> There original play was a backreef edwards/sligo play, but they have the Austin Chalk/Eagleford as well.




I too am surprised Burlington is not fraccing their wells and agree with you choppy that the horizontal wellbore must be in the Austin Chalk.  Since they are producing gas with a lot of condensate they must be intersecting some natural fractures in the chalk.  If they fracced the wells they could reap some additional production from the Eagle Ford.  Maybe they are planning a separate Eagle Ford program down the line.


----------



## Agentm

hey bubba, i agree with you...

new permit for pioneer just SE of kenedy towship

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...=Y&name=CHESNUTT+GAS+UNIT&univDocNo=485928010

chesnutt

adi announced the easely was drilling away and 3 stages of the kennedy safely done, no issues,  one poster on hc reports huge pressure in the well post frac, must be talking to very chatty directors of one of the jvp members


very promising..  looking for a 5 - 9 mmcfpd well there imho


----------



## bart9

To assist organizing the drilling activity across the Eagle Ford Trend I offer the following links:

Regional structure map covering 22 counties:
"users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/index.html"

EFS Gross Interval Isopach:
"users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_grs_intl.html"

EFS TOC Isopach:
"users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_toc.html"

That's what I do ...make maps,

Bart9


----------



## condog

Hi Bart

Thanks, can you offer any interpretation of what you see in the JVP area....from your maps....

I havent downlaoded each and though you may be able to put a good summation in using your knowledge..ta.


----------



## bart9

The EFS structure map is not suprising.

Often in regional mapping of this scale the significance of subtle local structures and fairways of productivity are masked...the implementation of basement plate shears is something I ( like probably others) have been observing for some time....my scribing of these shears is at first driven by region-wide gravity and magnetic surveys, corroborated by or reinforced by linaments of Edwards, Georgetown, Buda and Austin Chalk "fairways of production.  Adding the overlay of "reservoir pressure" (mudweights) and GOR of recent EFS completions is illuminating and providing further "sweet spot" compartmentalization.  Tracking the character of Edward's ratios offers more data points...and  "crossplotted" below, as it were, the Eagle Ford is distinquishing a set of "fencelines for expectations I look to be fulfilled in future EFS drilling.

The contrast scoping between Petrohawk's map of net porosity and my map of gross interval velocity  arises from: 1) I don't have logs of recent wells to flush out the isopach, 2) I don't have any contact with Petrohawk, to have a sense of cutoffs / flags / or data points they have used.

The artful interpretation of net TOC stands alone here. I have not seen nor heard of anyone else unveiling such a map...I developed transforms calibrated to EFS wells, scant geochemistry, and some gas shale log analysis. My  efforts sought to establish a trend-wide transform with cutoffs and flags I could apply to conventional legacy logs of gamma ray, resistivity, density porosity, bulk density, and sonic records. The problem, among several, is the depth/pressure/compressibility/fluid components that are NOT laterally continuous. While I considered drawing compartments to gain resolution....I thought the better of it to wait until I felt I had a better foundation of what really was significant and defensible.  My sense is that some workers are not looking at the storage issue to support the significant rates we are experiencing in the trend.....for not recognizing the lithologic variance in the system. 

B.


----------



## Agentm

is that a clever way of saying its your best guess given the data

but seriously,, great answer..

love to meet up with you bart,,   your in houston i gather..  maybe this year i will get there, love to see more of your work..


cheers


----------



## condog

Holy crap bart , can you dumb that down like 500% and give it in laymans terms....

Clearly you know you stuff like no tommorrow...

How bout just answering this.....in your educated guestimate how do you rate the JV tennement area of ADI, AUT, EKA and hillcorp......

Is it likely to produce #$%#@ loads of oil and gas .....and why, relative to its neighbours????


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Howdy Bart9, 

Thanks for the maps.  Really fine work!

I'm curious.  On the structure map, are the black and orange lines major and minor faults?  By, "the implementation of basement plate shears" are you referring to these faults and how they (and other factors) might impact sweet spots in our shale rock?  Interestingly, the area has a recent history of half a dozen minor tremors?  

Thanks again.


----------



## sam76

Good to see a Texan with a taste for Aussie rock!

Great maps Bart, you should send in to the JVP.


----------



## bart9

For the "Tordilla Kid",  see the jpeg explanation of structure map

To simplify the map I changed color of antithetic faults (DTNorth) to brown as well. Interpreters have long recognized  "families of faults" offsets along these trends....few maps published are as clear in seeking to tie these offsets to some basement controls. Observations of fault groups (ie. the Karnes Trough, Charlotte, Sample, Jordanton, Edwards, Sam Fordyce, Vanderbilt, Luling fault trends) were the subject of papers pbulished in the '50's and '60's. 

Until more EFS well data gets out in circulation the measure of influence on TOC, fracturing, productivity will remain interpretative. I do think we are observing an influence but it is the unknowns: ldistribution of wells, effective lateral length, completion procedure, number of stages, actual vs calculated rates, sustained test vs burp distort the picture.   

To reply to those with advice as to resource productivity I am mindful of the jeopardy to my professional certifications for furnishing investment advice or the basis of such to the public or otherwise unqualified investors. See as well ASIC Notice (1). My intention had been to provide maps with which to post drilling results that others may benefit in seeing spatial and other rather generic relationships of the Eagle Ford Shale trend. 

B.


----------



## bart9

For those who have not found the url here are small shots of maps in question.

Maps that should plot with good resolution up to Ansi D size are at the previously posted url.

B.


----------



## RDA

Bart9
Having a hard time accessing the maps you posted. Another texan here having to go "Downunder" to find out whats going on!
Any suggestions?


----------



## bart9

Agentm, 
I hold highest regard for what you bring to this forum....my small offering is only in support for the cause....you're on the mark, I don't have acccess to the "lot of data" that has resulted from EFS drilling over the last 18 months....but make do with volumes of legacy well data.

RDA, and others, try these links again....though you should be able to see the smaller jpegs  I posted here earlier...


http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/index.html

http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_grs_intl.html

http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_toc.html

B.


----------



## condog

bart9 said:


> Agentm,
> I hold highest regard for what you bring to this forum....my small offering is only in support for the cause....you're on the mark, I don't have acccess to the "lot of data" that has resulted from EFS drilling over the last 18 months....but make do with volumes of legacy well data.
> 
> RDA, and others, try these links again....though you should be able to see the smaller jpegs  I posted here earlier...
> 
> 
> http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/index.html
> 
> http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_grs_intl.html
> 
> http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_toc.html
> 
> B.




Have you accessed the RRC database...I would have thought that would be the place for the data you are seeking...

To others whats the news... has anyone heard anything about what AEST day are we expecting flow to sales announcment....


----------



## Sean K

Love your Signature condog!!

Not many provide good analysis and then ask for it to be tested. 

Great work!! 

kennas


----------



## Agentm

bart9 said:


> Agentm,
> I hold highest regard for what you bring to this forum....my small offering is only in support for the cause....you're on the mark, I don't have acccess to the "lot of data" that has resulted from EFS drilling over the last 18 months....but make do with volumes of legacy well data.
> 
> RDA, and others, try these links again....though you should be able to see the smaller jpegs  I posted here earlier...
> 
> 
> http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/index.html
> 
> http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_grs_intl.html
> 
> http://users.hal-pc.org/~bgroth/efs_toc.html
> 
> B.




bart

i understand, as you do, that the mapping is extremely generalised, and there are far too few datum points to get an accurate picture through out, but on a general trend, the maps follow the trends along and give great indications of where to look in some regards.. you have put some effort into it, i commend your effort.

i gather you know that some studies on the edward backreef were undertaken in the recent past.. i know that a while back one geologist has put up some interesting data about this region adi is in.. particularly the edwards backreef play

did you take data from the sturken wells in live oak. or the old butler horizontal just north of kowalik..from a few decades back.. the pogue well that tcei drilled.. or that mobil well in northern bee county??


condog

the data is very interesting, in the future as more data is presented bart will be able to map the play far more accurately.





imho you cant deny that the eagleford is indeed in play, that many of the industry giants are chasing acreages, and that the majority of people laughed themselves stupid when i first started posting about the eagleford shale.. but when the president of conocophillisp is talking up the exact same play i was talking up a few years back.. speaks for itself,,


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> imho you cant deny that the eagleford is indeed in play, that many of the industry giants are chasing acreages, and that the majority of people laughed themselves stupid when i first started posting about the eagleford shale.. but when the president of conocophillisp is talking up the exact same play i was talking up a few years back.. speaks for itself,,




I hear what you say...its a brave move to poke your neck out...as i have done on several stock in here which i have researched thoroughly...

I commend you for your efforts, thank you for your input and admire you for your courage.... I take my hat off tou you agent.....and IMO we will all be rewarded in due time on these stocks thanks to your research and input here....

You have stared doubters in the face with shear grit and belief over a long time and its almost pay day..congrats...


----------



## condog

Hi guys can anyoneconfirm or otherwise- who Morgan 228-2 belongs to... its approved for TCEI on 5th jan 2010 and appears to be not too far from kawalik... its a bit hard to tell with some as they dont have the section numbers...its 8 miles SW of Karnes City....., Kowalik is 10 mile SW, Kennedy is 12 miles...


----------



## condog

condog said:


> Hi guys can anyoneconfirm or otherwise- who Morgan 228-2 belongs to... its approved for TCEI on 5th jan 2010 and appears to be not too far from kawalik... its a bit hard to tell with some as they dont have the section numbers...its 8 miles SW of Karnes City....., Kowalik is 10 mile SW, Kennedy is 12 miles...




There was some discussion on page 222 of this thread by Agent and Father ted... Is it going ahead and is it part of the JV

Or is it one of the ones that got canned because they decided to drill the other way...??


----------



## Agentm

condog

morgan is next to go.. as new permits go in i generally post info or sometimes some others see them and post them

at morgan a pad is ready on the site, built in last few weeks, fences are up around it so i think its pretty close to being capable of having heavy equipment  on site..

once easley is completed, if hilcorp and tcei wish, they can move the rig there, but to date only the announcement on easley has been released

many of the permits you see there are now cancelled..

with the new designs on the wells, and with them wanting to drill with different engineering plans, they are pulling the permits, putting in new ones and going ahead with them.


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Condog,

AgentM is right, about drilling permits.  Operators can amend, or just cancel 'em, and a lot of that is going on.

To answer your original question, There' a shortcut to locating wells in the TRCC site.  Find the Drilling Permit (Form W-1) for either well.  Where the W-1 shows the API click on the TRCC icon.  It puts the API in the space for you in the GIS.  Click to search by API.  Then zoom out some and you'll see both Morgan 228-2 and Kowalik 228-1 in the Coy City Survey near the intersection of FM 99 and FM 626.  

You can drill deeper by clicking on individual wells, but most operators don't report production right away.  Plus, they can get TRCC to allow confidentiality for up to a couple years.  Some will just pay a fine for not reporting.  So, you can't tell a lot about new wells from the TRCC site other than location and what's approved in the permit.  Like Bart9 cautioned me about his most excellent maps, TRCC info can only show general trends--particularly with new wells.

Tordilla Kid.


----------



## condog

Cheers to both

Yep had drilled doen to map previously and id'd 595 and 642 nearby, but was still uncertain on morgan ownership....  Ta both for clearing that up...
So with easley anticipated to flow around 2nd March is that when youd be anticipating start for Morgan, or could they shift rig from Kennedy much sooner??

Kowalik rig has gone elswhere I assume...


----------



## mir

condog not a 100% on this but heard  morgan will spud in 1 to 2 weeks . i also thought morgan would spud after easley was completed.


----------



## adobee

Interesting how many new members there are whom seem to have joined to post on ADI .. Not saying that this is bad or good but just interesting...  The more generating interest the better... I am sitting and watching for now.. if it breaks past 18c I will buy some more ..


----------



## Agentm

mir, where did you hear that? if its the case its an interesting development..


condog.. the kowalik well will in all likelihood no longer have a workover rig on it. once a plan is constructed for the down hole issues, the crews return with whatever type of workover rig they need, be it coiled tubing or whatever. cant be sure what the frac program for easley is,, it took many years for kenendy, lets hope the easley is immediate..

has a frac been mentioned yet,, i cant recall

kennedy has a workover atm. whether they use the same crews and the same workovers is not clear. 

also condog, not sure if you realise,, the workover rig for a completion is way smaller than a drilling rig..

cheers


----------



## rock86

I'm probably wrong hear, but after the kennedy frac is completed weren't the plans then to frac weston?? I thought that would've been the case and then then after weston the new wells would be on the go.


----------



## condog

Hi Agent 
yeh knew that, but ta.'

In ref tou frac mentioned, not sure which one you where refering to so, but i think you meant easely:
From update:
Easely - No specific mention of frac, "The well is scheduled to take approximately 40 days to drill, which includes a vertical pilot hole from which additional data on the Eagle Ford Shale will be gathered. The well has been designed with a 4,000 ft horizontal section and will access both the Austin Chalk horizon, which is locally prevalent within the Sugarkane Field and the Eagle Ford Shale when it is subsequently stimulated.."


----------



## Agentm

kennedy and weston are due for a frac one after the other, and i was just kiddin about with easley, i am certain they will frac that one immediately

i was looking at the live oak well events, these are listed as a well is drilled. its normal for the operators to do this requirement with the rrc

this is the conocophillips eskew north unit 1H well in live oak a few miles west of the adi acreages

Event:	Spud  	
Event Date: 01/08/2010


then today

Event:	Prod_Int  	
Event Date: 01/22/2010 

Casing Depth: 	10,597.0  	
Casing Size:	7 5/8 
Cementer:	HALLIBURTON SERVICES 
Comments:	CALLED INTO THE ANSWER SERVICE (AFTER HOURS) INTERMEDIATE TO MIX/PUMP/CIRCULATE THE CEMENT 


14 days to this stage is pretty impressive.. the precision rig that conoco use is an extremely powerful and high tech rig.. its been used on most of their laterals in the past 6 months..


easley will drill a pilot hole, so its a longer completion.. taking their time and making certain of the formation intervals


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

That is the intermediate casing they set before they start building the curve into their horizontal leg.  14 days is an okay pace but the shallow section is generally easy drilling.  Petrohawk says they can drill their whole well including the horizontal in 17 days.


----------



## Agentm

thanks for that choppy.. i was thinking a bit later after posting that it may have just been the turn and not the production liner in the horizontal..

there is every chance the jvp may commence their mid weekly reporting regime today


"Further operational updates will be issued on a weekly basis or if required following material events. Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI."

mir was suggesting the morgan well could be drilled soon. he has been an aut and eka holder from the start.. it would historically be the most demanding period for tcei to have 2 wells drilling and 3 wells being fracced in the same month


----------



## yma

Has anyone know when will the frac result come out, sometime this week? Just to put more words here to make it more than the minumum


----------



## Agentm

should be close to completed

Kennedy #1H – Scheduled Commencement of Fracture Stimulation Program
Adelphi has been advised by TCEI that the Kennedy #1H fracture stimulation is scheduled to commence on Monday, 18 January 2010. As previously advised, the 4,000ft of horizontal liner will be fracced in 14 separate stages with an isolation plug set between each stage. The operation is expected to take 7 – 10 days after which the isolating plugs will be drilled out and the well cleaned up and then flowed to sales.


----------



## condog

Unless they have encountered problems announcment of flow should be today, tommorrow and at the absolute latest monday....  10 days is up today, so if they are on time expect an announcement today....


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> Unless they have encountered problems announcment of flow should be today, tommorrow and at the absolute latest monday....  10 days is up today, so if they are on time expect an announcement today....




condog

in this game things take as long as they have to..

millions of dollars are spent on ops, and you dont have to rush..

7 -10 days to complete the frac is expected,,, not guaranteed.. 10 days would be tomorrow in the usa..

then you start looking drilling out plugs and flowing to sales as your well cleans up. i am not considering any more news on flow rates until next week, but if it comes this week and things went super smooth and fast.. then it would be a welcome surprise to all

i expect neutral reporting on ops in the interim, and followed by reporting on flow rates in the near term (possibly next week)

and i bet as soon as i post this some news will be announced...

all imho and dyor


----------



## condog

I concur agents..... perhaps my lack of keyboard intinations and facial expressions  has led to some misunderstanding.....or as matter of start date, but either way...imminent not impotent...


----------



## Agentm

lol

conoco is still talking up the eagleford..



ConocoPhillips Reports Fourth-Quarter Earnings of $1.2 Billion

*Elsewhere, the company continues to see good results from our Eagle Ford shale gas play activities*, and we have commenced drilling on our Muskwa shale gas acreage in British Columbia, Canada."

http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/newsroom/news_releases/2010news/Pages/01-27-2010.aspx


----------



## yma

condog said:


> Unless they have encountered problems announcment of flow should be today, tommorrow and at the absolute latest monday....  10 days is up today, so if they are on time expect an announcement today....




not too sure how they count the days, including Sat and Sunday? If we are talking about 5 working days a week, then the result might be next Wed or Thursday


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> in this game things take as long as they have to..
> 
> millions of dollars are spent on ops, and you dont have to rush..
> 
> 7 -10 days to complete the frac is expected,,, not guaranteed.. 10 days would be tomorrow in the usa..
> 
> then you start looking drilling out plugs and flowing to sales as your well cleans up. i am not considering any more news on flow rates until next week, but if it comes this week and things went super smooth and fast.. then it would be a welcome surprise to all
> 
> i expect neutral reporting on ops in the interim, and followed by reporting on flow rates in the near term (possibly next week)
> 
> and i bet as soon as i post *this some news will be announced*...
> 
> all imho and dyor






condog said:


> I concur agents..... perhaps my lack of keyboard intinations and facial expressions  has led to some misunderstanding.....or as matter of start date, but either way...*imminent *not impotent...




Guys

How could you are so accurate on your forecasting

Job well done folks

Predicably ADI has published an update fulfilling both the time line Condog mentioned and content in line with Agentm mentioned. 

I however did not like the information on 8th shell in the attachment and would like to know your thoughts

Regards


----------



## Ramblin Round

The Kenedy 1 sounds like it collapsed and is currently still in the workover phase. Not sure about the coiled tubing or why. I have to check with some sources. Maybe a fishing expedition but I thought that was when they twist off during the drilling phase. Again, I'm no expert. Others here will have the answer.

Easley 1 .......Out of boredom I'll go ahead and make my prediction with no facts. I predict they will go down to about 9000-12,000ft before they run it directional to go a huntin' for Eagle Ford. 6K is very shallow for that area from what I have heard and seen all around it. Most rigs are being permitted down to the 14,000-19,500 range.


----------



## Bigukraine

Kennedy 1h

trying to get a handle on the prob and this is how i see it the fracc was to have a total of 14 stages and upon the stimulation of the 8th stage they had a loss of pressure/colapse and are now going to go with the 7 stages that have been stimulated to get a test flow to access flow rates/quality of oil ???
 (please feel free to correct me).

Kowalik 1h

Had a piece of slim drill pipe parted at 700ft down hole and did some fishing at over 8000ft with limited sucess and have suspended ops until they can evaluate plans for a better way forward for this hole.

Easley 1h

the horizontal drilling still to be done so will have to wait for progress reports and considering the depths they are going to have to drill to (as per Ramb R)
they had better make sure no more bits of pipe part. Sounds like to me i might put these in the draw and see you guys end of Feb.


----------



## Agentm

sounds right to me

8 stages in, 6 missed on the lateral.

the 8 stages that are completed will give tcei/hilcorp the data they need on how good this type of completion is in the sugarkane..

all i am looking for is good production numbers, which i am fairly  sure everyone is..

its dog unlucky to have this occur in a frac operation. but what the well still can do is produce. and what the well will demonstrate is what ability the formation can produce at, given the type of engineering and frac design utilised.


----------



## condog

Not terrible news, but certainly not what we wanted....

Hopefully we get some good flows from it anyway....

TCEI are off my xmas card list though...


----------



## Agentm

condog

watch out for hilcorp 

things are happening in karnes county, the frac in kowalik was not a problem, the down hole issue with the liner became the issue

there are investors in AUT and EKA suggesting there is another rig on the way.

something peculiar is happening out there, at least from an investor point of view. talk of more rigs yet no flow from wells???? so why is that then??

i see a new horizon developing, a far different one to what the invetsors here are..

conoco yesterday

Elsewhere, the company continues to see good results from our Eagle Ford shale gas play activities

imho hilcorp today could be saying 

Elsewhere, the company continues to see good results from our Eagle Ford shale gas play activities


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> watch out for hilcorp
> 
> things are happening in karnes county, the frac in kowalik was not a problem, the down hole issue with the liner became the issue
> 
> there are investors in AUT and EKA suggesting there is another rig on the way.
> 
> something peculiar is happening out there, at least from an investor point of view. talk of more rigs yet no flow from wells???? so why is that then??
> 
> i see a new horizon developing, a far different one to what the invetsors here are..
> 
> 
> Hey agentm,
> 
> The new horizon you are suggesting could you elaborate a little if possible eg, possible take over or other? just a little hint on your thoughts please would be nice


----------



## Ramblin Round

My understanding is that not all Eagle Ford fracs are successful the first time. Some produce and some don't. And then some multi-stage fracs produce like no well they've ever seen before. If Eagle Ford is such a hit and miss game then it seems that there is no choice but to keep poking holes in the Earth. It all sounds good to me.

Drill baby drill !


----------



## Agentm

Bigukraine said:


> Agentm said:
> 
> 
> 
> Hey agentm,
> 
> The new horizon you are suggesting could you elaborate a little if possible eg, possible take over or other? just a little hint on your thoughts please would be nice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> pretty easy stuff really
> 
> on hc there are suggestions from a long term aut holder that there is progression at morgan, and indicating there is a chance of a spud in the near term..
> 
> if hilcorp are drilling with 2 rigs, then imho watch out for hilcorp..  they are deadly serious about the play and are drilling away
> 
> sure the aussie investors disbelieve the sugarkane potential. thats very evident by the lack of interest in the share.. but that by no means suggests that the sugarkane is being treated any less seriously by the main parties investing in it, hilcorp and tcei appear to be going ahead, drilling easley as we speak.. would that happen if there was nothing there to drill after???
> 
> lol
> 
> if you follow how intense the landmen are in the region it would be evident to anyone that theres a lot at stake here..
> 
> i will tell you three that are interested
> 
> conocophillips
> TCEI/Hilcorp
> ME...
> 
> happy to wait.. what ever else happens is not a concern to me, its purely a case of time before the results will speak for themselves.
Click to expand...


----------



## condog

Ramblin Round said:


> My understanding is that not all Eagle Ford fracs are successful the first time. Some produce and some don't. And then some multi-stage fracs produce like no well they've ever seen before. If Eagle Ford is such a hit and miss game then it seems that there is no choice but to keep poking holes in the Earth. It all sounds good to me.
> 
> Drill baby drill !




I tend to agree 

Theres a good post on the HC forum which i quoted in the AUT thread....

Its only an opinion, but well worth a read....


----------



## condog

Agent I wholeheartedly agree - once again thanks for your tireless efforts in providing fantastic info on the Sugarkane prospects....

Im in backing them till theres a LOT more news one way or the other....Im ignoring this negative noise about the place for the moment... and focusing on the true potential and whats actually happeing over there rather then the negativle little ...#!@#$%#@ are saying in Aus...


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm said:


> Bigukraine said:
> 
> 
> 
> pretty easy stuff really
> 
> on hc there are suggestions from a long term aut holder that there is progression at morgan, and indicating there is a chance of a spud in the near term..
> 
> if hilcorp are drilling with 2 rigs, then imho watch out for hilcorp..  they are deadly serious about the play and are drilling away
> 
> sure the aussie investors disbelieve the sugarkane potential. thats very evident by the lack of interest in the share.. but that by no means suggests that the sugarkane is being treated any less seriously by the main parties investing in it, hilcorp and tcei appear to be going ahead, drilling easley as we speak.. would that happen if there was nothing there to drill after???
> 
> lol
> 
> if you follow how intense the landmen are in the region it would be evident to anyone that theres a lot at stake here..
> 
> i will tell you three that are interested
> 
> conocophillips
> TCEI/Hilcorp
> ME...
> 
> happy to wait.. what ever else happens is not a concern to me, its purely a case of time before the results will speak for themselves.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agentm thankyou for your insight and as allways informative and will be waiting for the results on easley 1h over the coming weeks .
Click to expand...


----------



## Ramblin Round

> Theres a good post on the HC forum which i quoted in the AUT thread....




Please share some links to other discussion forums. I am hungry for all the info I can get regarding Sugarloaf and Eagle Ford.


----------



## mir

agentm have you any info from your end to support / not support my post on morgan starting in the next few weeks?also I've been told hilcorp are in a different league to tcei, a lot more fire power.


----------



## Agentm

on the ground theres plenty to support it. so i cant find anything there that discounts it as a possibility


----------



## condog

From AUT quarterly report


> Following the recent farmin to Aurora’s Sugarkane assets by Hilcorp Energy (“Hilcorp”), this reporting period has seen an acceleration of operations under the associated work program.
> Regional Eagle Ford shale activity has continued to increase with new entrants, further positive
> results and a level of interest that puts the play amongst the most sought after of the US shales.



But then they dont stipulate what....to my knowledge we have not seen any accellerations to date...so perhaps they are referring to an accelleration of Morgan

Also very encouraging, but i think the non-doubters already knew this:


> The Eagle Ford Shale trend is now one of the pre-eminent unconventional gas resources onshore in the
> USA. Major US and international companies have made announcements of significant acreage acquisitions and drilling activity surrounding Aurora’s acreage. Initial results continue to support the premise that the
> Eagle Ford shale is one of the most economic within the USA. Within the trend and based on publically available initial production rates, three of the best results,on a gas equivalent basis, are from wells drilled
> within or on the boundary of the Sugarkane field.
> 
> Production from the Sugarkane Field has been fairly consistent across all of the recently producing wells. Gas being produced is very rich with 1,250 British Thermal Units per cubic feet of gas (“BTU/scf”) and a very high condensate ratio of 100 – 300 barrels per million cubic feet of gas (“bbls/mmscf”).





> Petrohawk has provided the most public information to date. Based on their presentation dated 12th Jan 2010, they have drilled 27 wells and have 16 operated wells on production with an average initial rate of 7.8
> mmcf/d and 143 bpd condensate (8.7 mmcfe/d or 10.0 mmcfe/d using a 6:1 calorific conversion or 15:1 ratio based on current relative fiscal conversion for condensate). They have continued to acquire land on trend towards the Sugarkane field in a venture with Swift Energy.
> 
> Recent announcements have been made relating to nearby Eagle Ford Shale wells which are located just outside the Sugarkane Field. Pioneer released the results of the Sinor #5 well in Live Oak County which is some 18 miles southwest of the Sugarloaf #1 well. Initial rates of 8.3 mmscf/d of gas and 500 bpd of condensate from a 2,600 ft horizontal section have been reported. Pioneer have also reported the results of the Robert Crawley Gas Unit #1 well, which is a few miles to the southeast of Sinor #5 at 17 mmscf/d IP (dry gas). ConocoPhillips provided the results of their Bordovsky #1H well as having initial production of 4 mmscf/d of gas and 1500 bpd of condensate. *This well is 18 miles to the northeast of the Sugarloaf #1 well and has exhibited a high condensate ratio which is comparable to that observed in Sugarloaf AMI production to date*.



 hmmm??

Whats your thoughts on that, given they reckon they have a year worth of data projections...see quote below from start of same report


> Production was suspended during the quarter from Kennedy #1H and Kowalik #1H in preparation for the fracture stimulation program, but there is now approximately one year of production data from each well.




Are they saying they have 1 year of data from Kennedy and Kowalik and its "comparable" to 







> ConocoPhillips provided the results of their Bordovsky #1H well as having initial production of 4 mmscf/d of gas and 1500 bpd of condensate




Or am i just reading stuff into this... id like to know your thoughts..

Cause if they are then, this is a massive massive  positive for the AMI....

These three IMO are now so rediculously undervalued its not funny....they are holding acerage with JV agreements inplace, have advanced teams on site in the most sought after onshore filed in the enitre USA.....  Guys marke my words...but DYOR and seek advice.....IMO this thing is set to blow....


----------



## rock86

condog said:


> From AUT quarterly report
> 
> But then they dont stipulate what....to my knowledge we have not seen any accellerations to date...so perhaps they are referring to an accelleration of Morgan
> 
> Also very encouraging, but i think the non-doubters already knew this:
> 
> hmmm??
> 
> Whats your thoughts on that, given they reckon they have a year worth of data projections...see quote below from start of same report
> 
> 
> Are they saying they have 1 year of data from Kennedy and Kowalik and its "comparable" to
> 
> Or am i just reading stuff into this... id like to know your thoughts..
> 
> Cause if they are then, this is a massive massive  positive for the AMI....
> 
> These three IMO are now so rediculously undervalued its not funny....they are holding acerage with JV agreements inplace, have advanced teams on site in the most sought after onshore filed in the enitre USA.....  Guys marke my words...but DYOR and seek advice.....IMO this thing is set to blow....




I totally agree with you, however it's been set to blow for the last 2 months now. All we need now is some luck to fully complete a frac. C'mon Weston


----------



## Agentm

condog, from zip a few months back to potentially 2 rigs working full speed any time now, acceleration it is..

2 wells fracced, one about to imho

next tcei permit for the sugarkane

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...RANCHO+GRANDE+TRUST+168-1&univDocNo=485938586

the well is called 	RANCHO GRANDE TRUST 168-1

its 5753 feet in the lateral

i am not seeing any slowdown here,,

its absolute that the investors see nil value for the sugarkane to the jvp,, but imho they are totally underrated and have totally misunderstood what the liquids are in the play and what value that will bring..

plenty are selling their shares at very much a discounted price imho, and happy too.. but imho the upside is totally misunderstood..

patiently waiting for a change in direction for the jvp..


----------



## Agentm

perhaps read this from murphy they  talk about their gaszone well in mcmullen, and then how they view the karnes county oil zone and their new well and also the play itself

many questions on the eagleford in the Q&A section

http://seekingalpha.com/article/185259-murphy-oil-corp-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript

no one thinks this play is valid i know with the jvp, but imho its a seriously wrong view..


----------



## condog

Agent thats great find once again......its all stacking up perfectly - Easley and Kennedy finished?? and about to finish soon....

Two rigs on site and 

Two wells set to go  Morgan and Rancho..... 

Agent whats your thought on the quote above about a years data in comparrison to Conoco 4mmcfs gas and 1500bopd condensate....is that your understanding....  are they saying Kennedy so far is comparrable????


----------



## Agentm

This well is 18 miles to the northeast of the Sugarloaf #1 well and has exhibited a high condensate ratio which is comparable to that observed in Sugarloaf AMI production to date.

i assume this is what your discussing?

the eagleford and the chalks are both active in the adi acreages, and whats staggering them is the 250 - 390 bopd per 1mmcfpd flow

kennedy has already indicated in the mini frac what ratio of condensate it will deliver..

where petrohawk are in mcmullen and lasalle the oil ratio is very low, so its primarily gas with low condensate, 50- 100 bopd per 1mmcfpd some times a little more...  so any wells there are close to wire on economics, you need high yielding condensate in the play to make a good return, with the giant petrohawk on a very handy hedging deal still in 2010 with the gas, the economics make the play over there somewhat attractive, but you have to consider that there are small cap explorers on the asx right in that zone, particularily in mcmullen and lasalle..  and when your investing there you need to be certain that when your comparing the returns that petrohawk get and the returns that others get, the hedging aspect is a significant factor in the economics of exploration if your in high gas yielding eagleford territory..


Petrohawk Energy will spend $1.45 billion in capital expenditures in 2010. The company will devote $900 million to development activities in the Haynesville Shale and $350 million in the Eagle Ford Shale.

Although the company finds the Eagle Ford Shale as attractive as the Hayesville Shale in terms of economics, the company needs to drill less to hold its acreage in the Eagle Ford Shale because the lease sizes are larger.

Hedging
*Investors concerned about the macro situation in natural gas in 2010 should take some comfort in Petrohawk Energy's hedge position. The company has 61% of its anticipated 2010 natural gas production hedged through a series of collars and swaps at a floor price of $5.93 and a ceiling of $9.21.*

also from petrohawk website

During the second quarter, Petrohawk gained $2.34 per Mcf from hedging, bringing realized natural gas prices to $5.62 per Mcf. The Company also gained $2.92 per barrel from its hedging program during the quarter, bringing realized oil prices to $56.64 per barrel. Before the effect of hedges, Petrohawk realized 94% of NYMEX for its natural gas production and 90% of NYMEX for oil


condog, do you follow my point here? in this play your economic modelling needs to be spot on, the well costs are a very important aspect.. the gas ratio needs to be in a very comfortable zone and the condensate needs to be way high.. and that region where adi are is being recognised by many as the best territory there is..


now adi have  a play that is chalks and eagleford combined.. conoco has demonstrated in one well, bordovsky, with a small production run and an ip of  1500 bopd off 4mmcfpd flow that there is a lot of potential in the rock and also you have to consider the type of completion they undertook is vastly different to the completion methods the adi jvp are undertaking..

this in the adi annual report

Petrohawk holds over 150,000 acres in the Eagle
Ford play which is located ~60km to the southwest of
and on trend to the Sugarloaf area. The Eagle Ford
shale in their area is 250 feet thick, overpressured,
highly calcareous, organic, relatively porous (~10%),
and sits stratigraphically beneath the Austin Chalk. It
is effectively a mature source rock. From direct rock
property measurements, Petrohawk has measured its
gas in place at 180 – 210 BCF per 640 acres (i.e. per
square mile).
*
The above rock property characteristics are very similar
to the Eagle Ford shale in the Sugarloaf AMI with two
important exceptions.

1. Gas richness at up to 300 barrels of condensate per
mmscf of gas is much higher at Sugarloaf; and

2. the play at Sugarloaf which forms part of the
Sugarkane (Cretaceous) Field comprises both the
Eagle Ford shale and the Austin Chalk.*


----------



## sam76

So what you're really saying is theirs is fantastic but ours is sooooooooooo much better!

lol


----------



## Agentm

no

its about the economics..

what you pay for leases, what the ratio of gas is, and whether you have capital to go further.

being undercapitalised and having 28 mill debt is one thing, having cash in the bank and the ability to fund forward well program is another..

imho hilcorp is demonstrating they have the initiative and the funds to hit the region hard.. i think a 10 well program they announced is just the tip of the iceberg, you have to appreciate the leases and the forward plan and i think there is no way 10 wells in 2010 is going to come close to meeting the demands of the acreages..  my data tells me different to whats being announced..

imho the barest minimum is what i needed to be demonstrated immediately for me to stay in the share,, and i am waiting for the demonstration of that,, all my research tells me its a possibility.. i am hanging in this one as i think the upside is not there in the share and the partnership with hilcorp was missed entirely by the market.. they have no clue whats on their minds..

i might add if the kennedy is what i think it will be..

oh, and did i mention conoco said they are pleased with all progress in the eagleford?

adi is a dead set standout bargain.. those selling imho have little understanding nor patience,, great for those accumulating  

all imho and dyor


----------



## jancha

adi is a dead set standout bargain.. those selling imho have little understanding nor patience,, great for those accumulating 
all imho and dyor


With the market jitters atm i feel that ADI could be picked up at much lower sp. Definately long term. That also could be part of the reason why they haven't been heading north.


----------



## mir

agentm what are your thoughts regarding kennedy? it should be flowing back frac fluids by now ,I'm hoping for about 400 to 500 bpd & 2 to 3 mmscf/d ip now with only 8 of the fracs complete .do you think that  I'm being to optimistic?


----------



## philly

Agentm said:


> perhaps read this from murphy they  talk about their gaszone well in mcmullen, and then how they view the karnes county oil zone and their new well and also the play itself
> 
> many questions on the eagleford in the Q&A section
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/185259-murphy-oil-corp-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript
> 
> no one thinks this play is valid i know with the jvp, but imho its a seriously wrong view..




Hi Agent m
thanks for that post.
I seems that others appreciate the value of Sugarloaf but the aussie market just doesn't get it... yet. Even at the current SP it may be worth picking up some more.
I have been trying to calculate how much HILCORP paid the JVP for their 10% share in Sugarloaf. Now maths is not my strong point so I was interested to read that David Morgan from Murphy Oil estimated  that to  drill 3 wells including fracturing would be between $8 - $13 million.
So say HILCORP paid $8m for a 10% interest based on the 3 existing wells success at any of the 3 new wells that HILCORP is drilling will add significantly to the SP.
Am I taking a too simplistic view of the value of ADI?


----------



## Hatchy

How about looking at it this way...
Hilcorp has paid for 50% of ADI's stake. Lets say costs blow way out fixing up their current mistakes of dropping lines etc. Call it 25Mil total for all the work they need to do (3 wells plus fracs (7ish million per well), and 3 fracs (1ish million per frac)) - This is all figures out of the air with a little research - nobody knows the real cost at this point - take it as a pure estimation. 

They'll have paid ADI effectively 20% (that's ADI's share pre farm out - and Hilcorps covering that share of cost to get 10% off ADI) of 25 Mil est. for 50% of ADI's share in the eagleford region. $5Mil

Let's hope that one day we all (market included) consider it to be too cheap a price! I know I already do.


----------



## estseon

Hatchy,

I don't think that you can use Hilcorp's estimated cost for the 3 fracs + 3 new wells to value the acreage. Hilcorp will earn 50% by shouldering the full cost of that work and then 50% of the cost of all future works in line with its WI.

Frankly, if they can realise the value of this acreage it's a good deal for ADI.

The indications are that they are prepared to spend the money to get the results. Kowalik was not completed to be fracced and yet the frac team managed to frac 75% - OK, they have a problem with a fatigued string...

Kennedy was fracced twice a year ago or more and the formation got blocked. The 2nd frac had to be abandoned. That might have weakened the lining because there is specific mention by EME of unduly high pumping pressures. But the bottom 600ft seems to have been re-fracced (3rd time) to their satisfaction -  no contrary comment and Plymouth comment on HC of rumoured high wellhead pressures. If so, these guys know their stuff. What can they do with a properly completed well? Let's ssee what they can do with Easley. The jury's out until that well is tested.

Weston was completed early because of "challenges". It flared up to 60ft. It could be an animal. But is was drilled in the chalk. The frac design is to frac both the Eagleford and the Austin. They might not be able to do that from the Austin.

Easley will be the first proper test. 

But that frac team did 8 stages and over 2,000 ft of Kennedy as compared to 1 frac of 600 ft and a subsequent, failed, re-frac of that 600 ft.

I am impressed if that means anything. Just reading the accounts of the early attempts and then comparing to what appears to be a stunning achievement gives me confidence.  And if you compare it to wells such as Kunde 3 in Live Oak fracced by COP - 5 failed attempts....Early days, maybe.

The value is not simple arithmetic based on what Hilcorp might spend, imo. They are buying expertise and experience from all appearances. Let's see what they can do. They may make it happen.


----------



## Hatchy

Esteon,
I sure hope that Hilcorp does make it happen. 

I think shale plays are undergoing a similar evolution of understading that CSM plays did about 4-5 years ago. Companies are still trying to work out the best techniques for fraccing and like anything experience is the key - as you said.  

Great news out today. Very encouraging. 

All in all (much like yourself) I am happy that Hilcorp is now going to be on board - I have had the impression over the last few years that TCEI might be taking advantage of the 'little aussies'. Hilcorp seems to be more interested in getting a job done and pushing this thing forward - TCEI were on too steep a learning curve IMO. 

Hatchy


----------



## Agentm

KENNEDY #1H - OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Kennedy #1H well.

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the isolation plugs set as part of the fracture stimulation operations have been drilled out and the well commenced unloading at 0100 hrs on Thursday, 28 January 2010 (USCST).

The initial production rate going to sales at 0700 hrs on Saturday 30, January (USCST) using a 22/64 choke was 4.39 mmscf/d gas and 1,132 bpd of condensate. The water production rate, from the recovery of frac fluids, was 408 bwpd.

Whilst these initial rates are very encouraging, the following points should be noted:-

• This is an initial production rate during clean up and is not yet indicative of a short or long term production profile.
• The well still has considerable fluids to recover from the fracture stimulation operations.
• The well is flowing from approximately 2,200 ft of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale with the remainder of the 4,000 ft horizontal liner isolated and not contributing.
• The well is currently producing through the 7" production casing, with a production tubing string to be installed in due course.

Adelphi’s Managing Director, Chris Hodge commented:
“Whilst it is early days, these initial flow rates are extremely encouraging including the expected high condensate ratio. We look forward to seeing how the well cleans up as well as the imminent fracture stimulation of our Weston well. Together with the three new wells being drilled as part of the farm-in program by Hilcorp across the Sugarloaf AMI, we expect to obtain additional valuable production performance data in the very near term to further
prove up the commercial potential of our interests."

Adelphi will continue to advise the market on production rates as part of its regular updates or as specifically required.

Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI including the Kennedy #1well.


----------



## condog

I know its early and we have frac fluids included, but those figures where better then I was expecting off 8 stages.....it will be good to see what they are in a weeks time...

Fantastic news IMO


----------



## kurtneverdied

Hi guys,

I hold AUT and wondering why the last couple of days ADI has gone up and AUT has gone a little lower.

I'm certainly no stock market expert or and know nothing about mining. I have done a lot of reading over this forum and the two companies seem very similar.

Have a made the wrong choice in your opinion buying AUT over ADI or will they pretty much stay 'together' or could they go there seperate ways?
Will the latest annoucement help AUT as well? No movement in price today.

Thanks form a nubie..


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> I know its early and we have frac fluids included, but those figures where better then I was expecting off 8 stages.....it will be good to see what they are in a weeks time...
> 
> Fantastic news IMO




• The well is currently producing through the *7" production casing*, with a production tubing string to be installed in due course.

Adelphi’s Managing Director, Chris Hodge commented:
“Whilst it is early days, these initial flow rates are extremely encouraging including the expected high condensate ratio. *We look forward to seeing how the well cleans up* as well as the imminent fracture stimulation of our Weston well.

condog, murphy had a well doing this..

We are off to a great start with our Eagle Ford Shale program in south Texas. We recently announced the discovery at our first well,* the George Miles number one drilled in McMullen County.*

*Initial rate of flow from the well was approximately 7.5 million cubic feet a day*. *This was increased to 11.7 million cubic feet a day once tubing was run*. 

once the production string is put in the well can perform a lot better again..

imho the result is exceptional. and hilcorp imho will go full steam ahead.. look out karnes county!!


----------



## Ramblin Round

After the tubing is run and the injections are complete that sucker should take off like all hell froze over when the rest of the fracs are completed. I am very pleased with the Kenedy 1 Operations Update. Sounds like it will be an exciting week for ADI.


I am currently (and happily) holding ADIHF. DYOD and IMHO as always.


----------



## yma

I am a bit confused, even with such a good result the SP drop by almost 6%. Not too sure why, i am currently the holder of ADI.


----------



## bazollie

G'day YMA , It would appear that the market still doesn't understand what we have here. 

All around the AMI there are wells being drilled and flowing gas and condensate. 
We have a good result here with the Kennedy Frac, with more to come from Easley. 

With the expertise on hand and the area to drill and explore , it seems that the S.P. must surely appreciate in the short term. 

ADI has cash in the bank, and a free carry ahead of them, the risk versus reward has decreased , with an opportunity for a catalyst if Easley proves to be a producer.

I still hold and will continue to hold to ensure I can be part of a re-rating once the market realises what the future may hold. 

Regards
bazollie


----------



## Ramblin Round

Any word on the Yemen sale ? Haven't heard that mentioned in quite awhile. It was being discussed back in December and I was wondering if it is still being pursued.


----------



## onthebeach

Great news on the Kenedy well. 

Just thought I'd add a little fuel to the fire. News over the weekend that EOG is producing as much as 25,000 bbls/oil/day in their new Gonzales County wells (N/E and updip of your holdings). That is a disgustingly high number not seen from land-based wells in this area in a long time. Log analyst with Baker Hughes confirmed the news. Gold rush!

I also had an EOG drilling engineer drunk at a bachelor party in my house this weekend, but was unable to pry any info from him. That's a fine sign if you ask me!


----------



## choppy

Onthebeach,

Those are some crazy numbers for EOG in Gonzales.  Best I can tell they have only completed four wells in that area.  If that is true that is about 6,000 bbl/day per well.  That would be simply amazing if that is the case.  Makes me wonder if those wells are in the Austin Chalk or Eagleford?


----------



## condog

onthebeach said:


> News over the weekend that EOG is producing as much as 25,000 bbls/oil/day in their new Gonzales County wells




This would be a cumulative total across multile wells, impressive at that though. How many wells are we talking here ????


----------



## Ramblin Round

Taken from the Lucas website. This says there were at least 22 at time of publication of this article back in August. 



> Lucas Energy announced the commencement of drilling the Norris No.1 well, Gonzales County, Texas, a re-entry of a vertical Austin Chalk well originally drilled down to the Buda and Georgetown formations.
> 
> The well was spudded on August 10, 2009 and is expected to be drilled down to total depth within the next few days. After drilling out the cement plugs in the casing, the well will be cleaned out to total depth and the lower intervals (Eagleford Shale, Buda, and Georgetown) will be tested. If the lower intervals are noncommercial, the Austin Chalk interval will be perforated and acidized. This well is a part of a joint venture program involving Lucas Energy, Inc., as operator, and two other non-operator working interest owners, one of which purchased an eighty percent BPO (before payout) working interest in the subject well.
> 
> Lucas operates twenty-two wells in Gonzales County, Texas. Of these, seven are vertical wells completed in the Austin Chalk and Buda formations. The Company's wells are in the new Eagleford Shale trend now being explored to the Northeast and Southwest of Gonzales County, Texas. Another well in the joint venture program, the Mills Oil Unit No.1, was spudded on August 4, 2009 and is expected to be completed within the next week.
> 
> William A. Sawyer, President and CEO of Lucas Energy, said, "Lucas Energy, Inc. has been leasing acreage and buying up wells in Gonzales County, Texas for several years. This joint venture program is the formula for proving up our acreage position and developing new reserves."




http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=79456


----------



## choppy

Ramblin,

That says that Lucas Energy has 22 old wellbores in Gonzales that they are re-entering for the eagleford/chalk.  I don't think Lucas has any involvement with EOG in Gonzales County.  EOG has drilled 4 wells in Gonzales and is currently drilling two more.


----------



## Ramblin Round

It said they operate 22 wells with 7 being directional. Sorry, I've never heard of Lucas either. With the info. being that outdated I was probaby better off not posting it.


----------



## Agentm

hi rambling

adi have the yemen asset on sale, i think once the process is certain you may get comment, but imho there will be no updates on it in the interim 

also re eog and gonzales... Lucas has said 22 wells 

eog has 6 wells in the eagleford in gonzales

2 verticals and 4 marshall wells which are horizontal.. 2H 3H 5H 6H

the rates onthebeach quote staggering to say the least, 25,000 bopd off the 4 horizontal and 2 verticals are way off the dial 


kennedy is going to return about  $2 mill for the month if its ip keeps up for a month.  and there is a chance with a production string in place of improvement and or a decrease.. who can tell. my view is that the eagleford is definitely looking commercial. and its not unreasonable to have have expectations of 3 times the flow rate or more coming from the new wells being drilled, they are designed to be  around 5000 - 6000 feet and they will be drilled differently and completed with a cemented liner

my view is that the slick water fracs are superior to any acid wash treatments conoco have thus far utilised in live oak experimental wells. they would have to consider them in their thinking imho. tcei and conoco are partners in a lot of acreages, so imho their would be some data shared in that configuration.. 

the advent of a brilliant partner such as hilcorp whom are totally capable of dealing with a project this size, and with the slck water frac treatments imho demonstrating commercial flow, it would be difficult to envisage tcei/hilcorp adopting conoco style completions atm.. i think a full forward drilling program would be the next step for the jvp.. my view is that one rig is no way near enough and there would have to be indications of a step up in operations very quickly. if that does not happen i know i am bailing big time.. my research tells me the use of a single rig would be a disaster for the jvp..

looking forward to seeing what i think the next steps are for adi.. if this is the real deal then things are about to get mighty busy for the jvp..

i think aut with its acreages are surely going to be temptation for many??

ops atm in the adi ami


----------



## Agentm

conoco has a permit for the next well, eskew east..






this from saf on the petrohawk presentation i mentioned the other day

Petrohawk results Feb 1

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...oration-doubles-proved-reserves-83234617.html

“Eagle Ford Shale

Petrohawk's position in the Eagle Ford Shale, comprising 310,000 total net acres and producing in Hawkville Field between the Edwards and Sligo reef trends in McMullen and LaSalle Counties, Texas, continues to deliver ever-improving results with four rigs currently running. The overall play is unique in its varied composition of dry gas, condensate and oil deposits in a geologically diverse, highly faulted and overall more complex exploration area compared to the blanket depositional patterns encountered in other shale plays. In particular, the presence of condensate yield in Hawkville Field appears higher than originally expected, making the area potentially even more economic on a revenue equivalency basis.
The Company drilled six wells in the Eagle Ford Shale during the fourth quarter of 2009, of which five were on production at year end, and drilled 24 wells during 2009, bringing the total number of Eagle Ford Shale operated wells on production at year end to 20, all located in Hawkville Field. The average initial production rate for the 22 wells to date is 9.7 Mmcfe/d adjusted on 6:1 natural gas to condensate ratio and 10.4 Mmcfe/d adjusted on a 12:1 ratio. Average production for the first 30 days for the 19 wells with sufficient production history has increased to 7.2 Mmcfe/d and 7.8 Mmcfe/d adjusted on a 6:1 and 12:1 ratio, respectively. Average production for the first 60 days for the 18 wells with sufficient production history has increased to 6.0 Mmcfe/d and 6.6 Mmcfe/d adjusted on a 6:1 and 12:1 ratio, respectively. Total gross operated production as of mid-January, 2010 was approximately 66 Mmcfe/d (or approximately 61 Mmcf/d and 800 Bc/d) from 22 operated wells.
Petrohawk is currently operating four horizontal rigs in Hawkville Field and expects to drill approximately 60 operated wells during 2010. The Company continues to see dramatic improvement in performance in the Hawkville Field wells. The primary drivers in this improvement are drilling longer laterals, the ongoing refinement of the completion technique, as well as operational efficiencies on existing wells. The first extended reach lateral, the Caroline Pielop #4H, was completed in December 2009. It was completed with 16 stages over a approximately 5500' lateral. The initial production rate from the well was 11.6 Mmcf/d on a 24/64" choke with 4800# flowing casing pressure. When compared to other wells completed nearby, early data indicates that this well could have a significantly higher EUR. The Company intends to drill the majority of its upcoming wells with lateral lengths approaching 6,000', and possibly exceeding that length if the results continue to suggest improved recoveries for longer lateral lengths.”


----------



## moses

rather nice looking result today finishing on its high and breaking out from October. Lets hope its the start of something good!


----------



## Bigukraine

Bigukraine said:


> Kennedy 1h
> 
> trying to get a handle on the prob and this is how i see it the fracc was to have a total of 14 stages and upon the stimulation of the 8th stage they had a loss of pressure/colapse and are now going to go with the 7 stages that have been stimulated to get a test flow to access flow rates/quality of oil ???
> (please feel free to correct me).
> 
> Kowalik 1h
> 
> Had a piece of slim drill pipe parted at 700ft down hole and did some fishing at over 8000ft with limited sucess and have suspended ops until they can evaluate plans for a better way forward for this hole.
> 
> Easley 1h
> 
> the horizontal drilling still to be done so will have to wait for progress reports and considering the depths they are going to have to drill to (as per Ramb R)
> they had better make sure no more bits of pipe part. Sounds like to me i might put these in the draw and see you guys end of Feb.







Well hello , what a diff. 6 days make. Now which draw did i put them in ? . Great news a bit of a slow response from the market , oil price up ,kennedy 1h good sign's and can't wait for post clean up results. I'm going to stay away from black cat's, walking under ladders and refrain from breaking mirriors ; hope this helps all holder's


----------



## condog

Congrats to all ADI holders for your new high today....you must be extatic...in AUT we closed at ours....spending mid afternoon with only two sales well above our high, i thought we where going to blow right through it, but then some impatient sellers bid us back down....

Looks like a good night will see us blow though ours tommorrow....and you guys should see new tops as well if oil and DJIA are up...

Lots of positives lining up right now, a lot has changed in a week

I havent seen this discussed in here, maybe it was last year, but ExxonMobil M&A of XTO now has them sniffing around in the shales as well....which IMO will make the shales center stage as results emerge...



> “ExxonMobil’s blockbuster $41 billion all-stock bid to buy U.S. unconventional resource leader XTO Energy took the market by surprise and marked a significant shift for the major back to North America onshore natural gas,” said Brian Lidsky, PLS’ managing director of research, in a statement. “The deal vaults ExxonMobil to the largest producer in the United States and gave the market and producers a large dose of confidence.  U.S. gas prices have been in a slump for over a year.”
> 
> Even without the Exxon Mobil-XTO Energy deal, the largest to date, he said, U.S. deal value tripled in size versus the previous quarter.
> 
> .........
> 
> Unconventional gas resources and development in the U.S. was valued at $44 billion in 14 separate transactions during the fourth quarter.
> 
> The Marcellus shale ranked No. 1 in activity. The Barnett Shale took second place with buyers Sumitomo, Total, and Talon Oil and Gas spending to get into the play, according to the release. The Haynesville Shale had two deals with the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and the Fayetteville shales each striking a single deal.


----------



## Hatchy

condog said:


> Congrats to all ADI holders for your new high today....you must be extatic...in AUT we closed at ours....spending mid afternoon with only two sales well above our high, i thought we where going to blow right through it, but then some impatient sellers bid us back down....




You must be fresh on the scene... or joking. 
New high today? 
Sure it's a high for the year, but unfortunately I can remember the days of 80c - ADI has a long way to go before paying me back, but i'm buckled in for the ride, and it's been one hell of a ride so far. 

Hatchy


----------



## condog

Hatchy said:


> You must be fresh on the scene... or joking.
> New high today?
> Sure it's a high for the year, but unfortunately I can remember the days of 80c - ADI has a long way to go before paying me back, but i'm buckled in for the ride, and it's been one hell of a ride so far.
> 
> Hatchy




Yeh im talking its 52wk high... its been stuck below 18c for a while now and finaly got through is what im refering too...nothing more nothing less...


----------



## jancha

condog said:


> Yeh im talking its 52wk high... its been stuck below 18c for a while now and finaly got through is what im refering too...nothing more nothing less...




Finally cracked the 20c barrier.
Bit more interest in volume as well.
Things are looking up for ADI


----------



## Agentm

pioneer announced they were looking at 2 rigs full time on their acreages and are looking for a partner also

i think the .20 barrier is just the beginning.. my view is that adi will trend to the safe haven of .30 and will probably run up to there quickly

plenty of news to come in the weeks ahead with weston on the verge of a  frac followed by easley


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> pioneer announced they were looking at 2 rigs full time on their acreages and are looking for a partner also
> 
> i think the .20 barrier is just the beginning.. my view is that adi will trend to the safe haven of .30 and will probably run up to there quickly
> 
> plenty of news to come in the weeks ahead with weston on the verge of a  frac followed by easley




Totally agree with this for EKA, ADI and AUT...

There is now value that needs re-rating in light of kennedy news and in light of Hilcorp saying it wishes to accellerate development of Eagleford...  I think we are seeing the beginning of a volotile but gradual incline...

Clearly to me there is IMO significantly more value here this week then last week thanks to Kennedy, with Morgan starting, a second rig soon it has more value again, as each well begins our value needs re-rating....

Happy days to all holders....


----------



## tomcat

You might like this one Condog:

This may have helped in the volume and price rise over the last few days:

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf

Price Target 27c
possible resource of ~45 billion cubic feet of gas and ~8 million barrels of light oil / condensate to Adelphi. 
Our modelling suggests that this could be worth >180cps for the Company.


----------



## condog

Hey Tomcat....thanks  that was a good read....

I think their price targets are extremely conservative.....especially thier short term one....this thin IMO will blow past 25.9c with no news, then with Easely, Morgan and Louigie (forgot the name of the new one so Louigie sounded good) its rediculous if it doesnt rocket past 30c...

Likewise right now AUT with its now rediculously sought after acerage is IMO worth significantly more then 38c..... then as soon as Easely is producing, Kowalick ??, Morgan and Louigie begin its got to be worth substantially more again.....


----------



## rock86

condog said:


> Hey Tomcat....thanks  that was a good read....
> 
> I think their price targets are extremely conservative.....especially thier short term one....this thin IMO will blow past 25.9c with no news, then with Easely, Morgan and Louigie (forgot the name of the new one so Louigie sounded good) its rediculous if it doesnt rocket past 30c...
> 
> Likewise right now AUT with its now rediculously sought after acerage is IMO worth significantly more then 38c..... then as soon as Easely is producing, Kowalick ??, Morgan and Louigie begin its got to be worth substantially more again.....




Each report on ADI that I have read by Hartley's was extremely conservative, the last one if I remember correctly was 10c, that got blown away real quick.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Wish we could see some positive here stateside. Nasdaq has not been so forgiving lately. In sheer irony, the Eagle Ford play by Adelphi is in Texas, yet the Australian market shows more promise for ADI this week. 

Is this play some big "secret" in Texas ? Most of the company men or drillers I talk to have known about Eagle Ford for years already. It's like "what do you think all these rigs are for ?" Duh.


----------



## condog

Ramblin Round said:


> Wish we could see some positive here stateside. Nasdaq has not been so forgiving lately. In sheer irony, the Eagle Ford play by Adelphi is in Texas, yet the Australian market shows more promise for ADI this week.
> 
> Is this play some big "secret" in Texas ? Most of the company men or drillers I talk to have known about Eagle Ford for years already. It's like "what do you think all these rigs are for ?" Duh.




Na i think its more of a case of people putting there capital into something immediately more immienet...then backing the AMI companies once they look like results are imminent....  why back it 3 years out when you can jump on board a week or two out...usually at the same price... and have your money working elsewhere in the mean time...

IMO its only now that they are looking like value will immenently rise.... up unto this point they have been of interest....but not looking like they would make that defining change...such as the wells that are occurring right now...


----------



## Bigukraine

Nice finish for the week,the new resistance level has been tested and considering the amount of red around in the market today nice to see only a small retrace on light volume. Onwards to next week (unless ahrs ann).


----------



## estseon

EME RNS - Hilcorp exercise option to take over as operator - no chance of them dropping out now.....................

Empyrean Energy PLC - Empyrean Energy PLC - Sugarloaf Project Block B Update

RNS Number : 7394G

Empyrean Energy PLC

5th February 2010

 Empyrean Energy PLC

('Empyrean' or the 'Company', (EME))


Sugarloaf Project, Block B, onshore Texas, USA.

 Empyrean Energy Plc is pleased to provide the market with the following update:

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE

Empyrean has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc ("TCEI"), that Hilcorp Energy ("Hilcorp") have exercised their right under the farmout agreement to assume operatorship of activity within the Sugarloaf AMI effective from the 1st February 2010.  Empyrean welcomes this development but would also like to acknowledge and thank TCEI for the significant role they have played to date in maturing the project to its present status. TCEI remain very actively involved and in particular will continue to manage land related issues. 

Easley-1H

The well has reached a depth of 8,362ft having run and cemented the intermediate casing string.  Forward plan is to drill down to the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford Shale targets with a vertical pilot hole to a planned depth of 11,800ft.  The pilot hole will be logged before sidetracking as a horizontal production well.

Weston-1H

Empyrean has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp, that fracture stimulation operations commenced at the Weston-1H well on the 4th February.  The 3,000 ft of horizontal liner will be stimulated in a number of stages.  The fracture design is similar to that recently applied to the Kennedy-1H well with success.  Process equipment and flow lines have already been installed and the well will be flowed to sales during the clean up.

Kennedy-1H

The well continues to clean up with production performance in line with expectation after the recently reported IP rates of 4.4 mmscf/d and 1,130 bcpd.  Production tubing will be installed in this well in due course.


----------



## Agentm

New Issue-Hilcorp Energy $300 mln of 10-year notes

Thu Feb 4, 2010 1:04pm EST
Feb 4 (Reuters) - Hilcorp Energy I LP/Hilcorp Finance Co on
Wednesday sold $300 million of senior notes in the 144a private
placement market, said IFR, a Thomson Reuters service.
Deutsche Bank, Barclays Capital, JP Morgan, BMO Capital and
Wells Fargo Securities were the joint bookrunning managers for
the sale.
BORROWER: HILCORP ENERGY I LP/HILCORP FINANCE CO
AMT $300 MLN COUPON 8.00 PCT MATURITY 2/15/2020
TYPE SNR NOTES ISS PRICE 98.315 FIRST PAY 8/15/2010
MOODY'S B2 YIELD 8.25 PCT SETTLEMENT 2/8/2010
S&P BB-MINUS SPREAD 455 BPS PAY FREQ SEMI-ANNUAL
FITCH N/A MORE THAN TREAS NON-CALLABLE 5 YRS

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0446887420100204?type=marketsNews


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm said:


> New Issue-Hilcorp Energy $300 mln of 10-year notes
> 
> Thu Feb 4, 2010 1:04pm EST
> Feb 4 (Reuters) - Hilcorp Energy I LP/Hilcorp Finance Co on
> Wednesday sold $300 million of senior notes in the 144a private
> placement market, said IFR, a Thomson Reuters service.
> Deutsche Bank, Barclays Capital, JP Morgan, BMO Capital and
> Wells Fargo Securities were the joint bookrunning managers for
> the sale.
> BORROWER: HILCORP ENERGY I LP/HILCORP FINANCE CO
> AMT $300 MLN COUPON 8.00 PCT MATURITY 2/15/2020
> TYPE SNR NOTES ISS PRICE 98.315 FIRST PAY 8/15/2010
> MOODY'S B2 YIELD 8.25 PCT SETTLEMENT 2/8/2010
> S&P BB-MINUS SPREAD 455 BPS PAY FREQ SEMI-ANNUAL
> FITCH N/A MORE THAN TREAS NON-CALLABLE 5 YRS
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0446887420100204?type=marketsNews






hi agentm,

pardon my ignorance but does  your post suggest that hilcorp will be using some of these funds to ramp up exploration/drilling/production in the chalk and shale plays in the area and may use funds for purchase of acreage's lease,s ?????  

p.s. on a bright note the dow added aprox 10.05 points with a late turn around before their close, could be a good lead for the asx monday imo.


----------



## sam76

Agentm said:


> New Issue-Hilcorp Energy $300 mln of 10-year notes
> 
> Thu Feb 4, 2010 1:04pm EST
> Feb 4 (Reuters) - Hilcorp Energy I LP/Hilcorp Finance Co on
> Wednesday sold $300 million of senior notes in the 144a private
> placement market, said IFR, a Thomson Reuters service.
> Deutsche Bank, Barclays Capital, JP Morgan, BMO Capital and
> Wells Fargo Securities were the joint bookrunning managers for
> the sale.
> BORROWER: HILCORP ENERGY I LP/HILCORP FINANCE CO
> AMT $300 MLN COUPON 8.00 PCT MATURITY 2/15/2020
> TYPE SNR NOTES ISS PRICE 98.315 FIRST PAY 8/15/2010
> MOODY'S B2 YIELD 8.25 PCT SETTLEMENT 2/8/2010
> S&P BB-MINUS SPREAD 455 BPS PAY FREQ SEMI-ANNUAL
> FITCH N/A MORE THAN TREAS NON-CALLABLE 5 YRS
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0446887420100204?type=marketsNews





This would have to be some of the biggest news to hit Adelphi since the field was discovered.  We now have a firm commitment from one of the larget private companys in The States.

Weston has begun it's multi-stage frac

Everyone is still happy with the flow at Kennedy

Easely is ticking along nicely (good to see the slow and steady approach)

One of the best announcemenst in ADI's history IMHO.


----------



## Agentm

Bigukraine said:


> hi agentm,
> 
> pardon my ignorance but does  your post suggest that hilcorp will be using some of these funds to ramp up exploration/drilling/production in the chalk and shale plays in the area and may use funds for purchase of acreage's lease,s ?????
> 
> p.s. on a bright note the dow added aprox 10.05 points with a late turn around before their close, could be a good lead for the asx monday imo.




i think they raised capital for no other reason than *for all their unfunded forward works programs*

i am aware that hilcorp is aggressively chasing leases in the region around our acreages..

i guess the clever will take something from the excellent research on hilcorp saf posted.. if you dont get it then perhaps just sit back and look out for some pretty big announcements in the near term as the show cranks up..

all my research points to a massive crank up of ops in the extreme near term

if it didnt happen i would be selling right now big time i assure you

all imho and dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

Has everyone finally realised the scale of this Sugarloaf Field ?

Hilcorp are taking serious moves to ramp up and develop this play the size of which may suprise.

ADI management have done a great job in cementing our place in the development and have funding in place as well as free carried for the foreseable future so existing holders should prosper as they deserve.

This is going to be a great ride.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I am here to report that I am a landowner in this play and that myself and about 2000 acres around me are currently not leased at this time. I was contacted today about leases from two different outfits. Both are low key drilling outfits IMO, but is is interesting that it happened today. In the past it has been driven by economics only.

Something big is happening. Also just today it was discovered that a local entrepreneur is hosting office space for a new leasing company to make a home for a couple of years. It's a race now boys. The word is out.


----------



## condog

Ramblin what sort of figure per acre are they talking these days, cause at one stage i believe it was $30,000 per acre per annum.... obviously most people didnt get that, but at its 2008 peak, i believe that was the best figures quoted.....

Might be worth an email to all the big players before you accept an offer........

That new Ferrari is lookin good mate....

PS..i think you should show loyalty and only sign with the AMI parties....lol


----------



## Agentm

condog

acreages are not at that level yet, but are going for significantly more than what conoco and tcei first paid in the first leasing agreements

re the car purchase, i think if you look at the first pay cheques these wells will deliver its clear that rambling will not be buying ferrari's but buyin out farrari inc

karnes county was one of the poorest counties in texas.. now its due for a big change..


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> acreages are not at that level yet, but are going for significantly more than what conoco and tcei first paid in the first leasing agreements
> 
> re the car purchase, i think if you look at the first pay cheques these wells will deliver its clear that rambling will not be buying ferrari's but buyin out farrari inc
> 
> karnes county was one of the poorest counties in texas.. now its due for a big change..




Na there not there at present but during 2008 they where... just google "eagle ford $30,000 acre" without the quotation marks and you will have an abundance of articles siting the dizzy highs of 2008

I also watched a BBC news / documentary....i think the link was in here or hc....cant remember...on how the acerage lease prices have transofrmed the life from extreme poverty to rediculous wealth, and it also cited lease values over $25,000 per acre...in 2008


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> Na there not there at present but during 2008 they where... just google "eagle ford $30,000 acre" without the quotation marks and you will have an abundance of articles siting the dizzy highs of 2008
> 
> I also watched a BBC news / documentary....i think the link was in here or hc....cant remember...on how the acerage lease prices have transofrmed the life from extreme poverty to rediculous wealth, and it also cited lease values over $25,000 per acre...in 2008




condog

the eagleford was known for its low acreage prices.. you are incorrect in your assumptions totally..

$250 - $300 per acre is where it started.. i think a jvp in live oak went for $3000 and acre for petrohawk under the awp field??  someone may correct me there??

haynesville and also the legendary barnett shale play in fort worth saw some dizzying figures on leases

eagleford is yet to climb to those figures, but i am hearing some big numbers but will not discuss them on the forums, its not really about that for adi, its about the acreages they do have and what the forward plan is on the acreages that are secured..

imho the thing to focus on is the objective, the extraction of the resource, how its done how well it flows, what technology works, what doesnt work so good etc etc

its getting closer to the time where the curtain is about to be raised. some are startign to get it, others are still oblivious..

good luck to those lucky ones buying and best of luck to those eager sellers!


----------



## Ramblin Round

Correct Agent M. I was always taught that it is the fool who wants to "get rich" on simply the leasing portion. I too refrain from discussing lease prices in this area. I've seen as low as $75/acre and as high as $1750/acre in the last 10 years. My interest is to be a steward of the land as well as look out for the well being of production opportunities on and around the ranch. (lol... a warm hearted hippie oil man?)  :  On the other hand more is always better. But this Texas fool is sitting on %100 of all royalties from the topsoil down. I want someone to DRILL lol....

Condog, you're right on. When the time is right I would be willing to negotiate a bit more to help a well vested AMI party for this play. I'll hard nose to any and all small sellout companies. But if a fair offer with an honest company who will let their guard down a bit and talk straight with me comes along, I will play nice. Guess I'll know it when I see it.


I am so glad I found this forum !!!


----------



## estseon

Good luck, Rambling.

You may be able to extract a bit of "nuisance value" if the surrounding land becomes leased.

It couldn't happen in the UK - minerals belong to the Crown. Water belongs to the water company except when you get flooded - then it's your problem.

Hilcorp are doing a lot of logging on their way down...wonder what else there is?


----------



## condog

Definitely reached $30K for Haynesville, i stand corrected, eagleford has reached $400 with projection of possible $15,000 per acre for 2010...if things stay hot
"6/30/08 - CHK - Plains gives $30,000 an acre for Haynesville
acreage" but as you say the important thing is the royalty and getting the resource out of the ground for us...

" 185.6 acres scattered around the Mansfield area of DeSoto Parish went to Classic Petroleum for a $18,537 per acre lease bonus and a 25% royalty."

Rambling...i was only joking about AMI...you do whats right by you...enjoy your spoilings......

I agree Agent with hilcorp on board, there new $300M stash, IMO this thing is really going to ratchet up now...IMO hilcorp took over for one predominent reason, they reckon as operator they can extract more value faster.....


----------



## Agentm

hard to see any downside is there condog

all the cards have fallen into place now

unlike many other junior oil explorers, adi is in the box seat

all aboard for the sugarkane hilcorp express


----------



## philly

Agentm said:


> hard to see any downside is there condog
> 
> all the cards have fallen into place now
> 
> unlike many other junior oil explorers, adi is in the box seat
> 
> all aboard for the sugarkane hilcorp express




Hi Agentm and Condog 
thankyou again for your massive input to this thread.
I am really really excited about ADI. I am so pleased that management didn't rush the farm-in process they have secured a fantastic partner in Hilcorp. Clearly, Hilcorp can see the upside in the Sugarkane and hopefully we will all benefit very soon. I'm going to enjoy this ride.


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Ramblin' I concur that bonuses in the area (Karnes County) have not been what they've been in other shale plays nationally.  Big ranches down here, history of oil and gas, we be poor, IDK.  Folks I know are starting negotiations a lot higher recently, however.  

Forty or so Cummings diesels blowing full bore will likely chase the game from your place to mine.  I won't complain one way or the other.  I've a couple huge boar hogs you're welcome to.  Suckers are rootin' up my roads like two feet deep.  The recent rains are welcome . . .  don't get me started.

A recent Ross Smith Energy Group report, "Eagleford Update – Let’s Talk Details: Friday, January 22, 2010" indicated that rigs operating in the play quadrupled from 11 in August to 45 in January!  Significant?

Local folks are talking about landmen wanting to lease for a 20"+ pipeline to run the length of the play.  Enterprise?   

Things is definitely heatin' up. :evilburn: 

Tomorrow I will check my rain gauge.  Hoping for two plus inches.  :dance:


----------



## condog

Tordilla Kid said:


> A recent Ross Smith Energy Group report, "Eagleford Update – Let’s Talk Details: Friday, January 22, 2010" indicated that rigs operating in the play quadrupled from 11 in August to 45 in January!




"Petrohawk Energy plans a similar ramp up in the Eagle Ford shale. The company drilled 24 wells at its Hawkville Field in 2009, and plans 60 more wells in 2010.  "

Petrohawk intend to heat things up big time too, so expect that number to jump significantly...Also ExxonMobil took over TXO and expect to be making in-roads into the "non-conventianal onshore US plays...in 2010 ( eagleford?? bakken?? Haynesville??)


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yes we hear the new pipeline is already being discussed. Local fencing contractors are putting in their bids for fencing jobs. Can't get a parking spot at the courthouse in DeWitt for all the landmen shoulder to shoulder doing research. Seen it with my own eyes last week.

Pioneer built a pipeline location last year/year before in North Dewitt. I suspect they will have to connect to that to flow out of the Yorktown wildcat oilfied among others on the line. Don't know much about pipelines. But I do know one is coming, and is greatly needed. Some of these wells flare for a year.

Rigs that are stacked are currently being pulled and rebuilt. Can't get on the highway without getting stuck behind trucks these days. They are actually meeting each other. One going on location, one back to the yard. lol.............

This is so exciting ! I'm holding ADI _*and *_sitting on Eagle Ford dirt ??? I better go check the toilet for gold nuggets. :bonk:


----------



## condog

Extremely interesting update this morning especially the bit where it says:

*"will continue to make releases as and when required and in accordance with ASX disclosure obligations. However, with the increase in field activity currently under way and planned going forward"*

Easley #1H
The well has reached a depth of 11,350ft having run and cemented the intermediate casing
string. This hole section will now drill down to the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford Shale targets
with a vertical pilot hole to a planned depth of 11,800ft. The pilot hole will be logged before
sidetracking as a horizontal production well.
Weston #1H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp, that fracture stimulation operations
commenced at the Weston #1H well on 4 February 2010. It is expected to take
approximately two weeks to stimulate the 3,000 ft of horizontal liner in a number of stages.
The fracture design is similar to that recently successfully applied to the Kennedy #1H well.
Process equipment and flow lines have already been installed and the well will be flowed to
sales during the clean up.
Kennedy #1H
The well continues to clean up with production performance in line with expectation after the
recently reported IP rates of 4.4 mmscf/d and 1,130 bcpd. Production tubing will be installed
in this well in due course.


----------



## Agentm

condog

the operator is under a lot of pressure to keep the ops quiet, so sensitive info will be held off.

the parts you posted were interesting but you missed some better ones..

the key point is the operatorship aspect

Operatorship

Adelphi has been advised by Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that *Hilcorp Energy (“Hilcorp”) have exercised their right under the farmout agreement to assume operatorship of activity within the Sugarloaf AMI effective from 1 February 2010.*

Adelphi welcomes this development but* would also like to acknowledge and thank TCEI* for the significant role they have played to date* in maturing the project to its present status*. TCEI remain very actively involved and in particular will continue to manage land related issues


tcei have done a brilliant job so far, and hilcorp can now demonstrate to the jvp their preparedness to move forward, as we note in todays release, and we can look forward to the next phase of exploration and field development..

we can also see how the sensitivity of the play is creating issues with the operator on the news releases

With regard to ASX releases in particular but all other relevant disclosures, Adelphi and its listed joint venture partners follow a formal review and approval process with the operator to ensure that commercially sensitive information remains confidential. Adelphi will continue to make releases as and when required and in accordance with ASX disclosure obligations.
However, with the increase in field activity currently under way and planned going forward, Adelphi intends to make regular releases updating the market but when appropriate rather than strictly on a weekly basis on a particular day.

obviously the operator wont allow weekly updates.. so news will be released, as it can be, and whenever


----------



## estseon

"Commercially sensitive".

So, they are still in leasing mode??? It's a bit difficult to see what else it might be.


----------



## condog

Yep as important as the operator ship was I thought in here it was old news dated 1st feb so i dint focus on it....  I acknowledge its more useful to investors then anything else......  but todays news acknowledging things where accellerating is the first serious acknowledgment by the AMI threesome from the ASX that things are likely to accellerate....and it was welcome news to my eyes...

*"However, with the increase in field activity currently under way and planned going forward"*

I would read the commercially sensitive mainly to be pertaining to new well annoucements, drilling results etc so that all parties recieve timely infromation together....but we all know in reality it doesnt usually happen....unless they have mobile phone jammers on site and security cameras and bugs on the phone...

Not that i care, as long as there drilling and theres gas and condensate im happy..


----------



## condog

See AUT thread page 6 , post 111 for a slide from Pioneers Q3 Earnings report and presentation from seeking alpha.... you may find interesting...  where they have highlighted three zones in thier lease are as liquids, condensate and dry gas....


----------



## Ramblin Round

Just got word that EOG are moving offices into DeWitt with 70+ landmen ready to go. It's probably a combination of the shale plays and the pipelines being discussed.


----------



## Agentm

hilcorp got a fine rating for the  bonds issued

courtesy of saf..

S&P rates Hilcorp ´s debt as BB & confirms that the bonds will be used to fund recent & pending acquisitions as expected.

“-S&P rates Hilcorp Energy I LP new notes 'BB-'
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Feb 3 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it assigned its issue-level and recovery ratings to Hilcorp Energy I L.P.'s proposed $300 million senior notes due 2020.
*The issue-level rating is 'BB-*' (the same as the corporate credit rating). At the same time, we assigned a recovery rating of '3', indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
"Our recovery analysis incorporates Hilcorp's plans to use the proceeds from the proposed notes offering to, among other things, repay outstanding balances under its revolving credit facility and *fund recent and pending acquisitions*," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Patrick Lee.

Houston-based Hilcorp is a private partnership that acquires, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas. Our corporate credit rating on Hilcorp is 'BB-', and the outlook is stable. (For the corporate credit rating rationale, see the research update on Hilcorp published Sept. 16, 2009.) RELATED RESEARCH -- "Volumetric Production Payments (VPPs) For U.S. Oil And Gas Exploration And Production Companies," Jan. 30, 2009 RATINGS LIST Hilcorp Energy I L.P. Corporate Credit Rating BB-/Stable/-- New Rating Hilcorp Energy I L.P. Proposed $300 mil. senior notes due 2020 BB- Recovery Rating 3 Primary Credit Analyst: Patrick Y Lee, New York 212-438-4682”

https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/CommoditiesNews?documentKey=


----------



## Agentm

saf delivers more


agentm,
Also a more comprehensive note from Mooodys which confirms the very solid naure of Hilcorp ´s debt. Seems to be a very well run company with a Houston billionaire at the helm.



http://www.bondweb.co.kr/menu01/sub...Direction=&gubun1=0&gubun2=Dow Jones&keyword=

The following is a press release from Moody＇s Investors Service:


Approximately $992 million of Rated Debt Affected


New York, February 03, 2010 -- Moody＇s Investors Service assigned a B2
rating to Hilcorp Energy I, L.P.＇s (Hilcorp) proposed $300 million senior
unsecured notes due 2020. Moody＇s also affirmed Hilcorp＇s B1 Corporate
Family Rating (CFR) and the B2 rating on the company＇s existing senior
unsecured notes. The outlook is stable.

"This bond offering refinances outstanding revolver borrowings and
provides additional cash to fund planned acquisitions and development,"
commented Francis Messina, Moody＇s Vice President. "While this will
increase Hilcorp＇s debt level, Hilcorp entered 2010 with low leverage
metrics relative to similarly rated peers."

Pro forma for the notes offering, Moody＇s estimates Hilcorp＇s adjusted
Debt/PD at approximately $10/Boe and debt plus future FAS 69 proven
reserve development capex on total proven reserves at approximately
$13.50/Boe. However, in terms of debt to average daily production
Hilcorp carries less leverage compared to its peers estimated less than
$22,000/Boe. Moody＇s estimates that Hilcorp will reduce further its
adjusted debt/PD level below $10/boe as the company rationalizes its
reserve portfolio.

Hilcorp＇s B1 CFR reflects strong production growth trends from
investments, comparatively stable production and a long generally
productive history in most of its focus regions, and an expected
reduction in financial leverage as earnings continue to grow. Though
Hilcorp has an aggressive acquisition strategy the company has indicated
it will appropriately contain leverage.

Hilcorp has had a successful track record for replacing production through
its acquire and exploit strategy of purchasing mature properties from
the majors then adding reserves through the drillbit, with an estimated
14% compounded annual growth rate from year-end 2002 projected into
2010. The relatively low three-year drillbit costs of estimated at
approximately $15.73/boe underlines Hilcorp＇s solid exploitation reserve
replacement trend and also reflects management＇s strong operational
expertise. Hilcorp operates 93% of its net production.

The stable outlook is based on an expectation that Hilcorp funds its
capital expenditures at levels largely in line with its operating cash
flows while achieving its production growth targets. The outlook could be
changed to negative if spending were to materially exceed operating cash
flow. The outlook could also be pressured or the ratings downgraded if
the company were to significantly increase debt through further property
acquisitions, dividends, and/or outspend its operating cash flows.
Dividends for year-end 2008 were approximately $100 million, with an
estimated dividend of $75 million for 2009.

The ratings for the senior unsecured notes reflect both the overall
probability of default of the company, to which Moody＇s assigns a PDR of
B1, and a loss given default of LGD 4, 62%, previously LGD 4, 66%. The
B2 rating of the senior unsecured notes reflects their position in
Hilcorp＇s capital structure, including the subordination to all first
lien senior secured creditors and full guarantees of existing and future
subsidiaries.

The last rating action was on November 13, 2009 when Moody＇s upgraded
Hilcorp＇s CFR to B1 from B2, and upgrade its senior unsecured notes to
B2 from B3.

The principal methodology used in rating Hilcorp was Moody＇s Global
Independent Exploration and Production Industry rating methodology
published in December 2008. The methodology is available on
www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the
Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have
been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in
the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody＇s website.

Hilcorp is a private limited partnership engaged in onshore and coastal
oil and gas production, acquisitions, exploitation, and divestitures.
Hilcorp acquires properties late in their productive lives with a goal of
boosting production through recompletions, workover and repair of
downhole hardware, restimulation of the wellbore/reservoir interface, and
refracturing of reservoir rock.


----------



## Ramblin Round

In my previous post I noted a group of landmen moving into town. Correction on the name of the company. It is Geo Southern moving into town, not EOG.


----------



## Agentm

rambling

research aref energy from kuwait and dewitt county in google.. they are the partner with weber and geosouthern

http://www.arefenergy.com/Subpage.aspx?aid=452&cid=322


----------



## condog

Agent they said Weston fraccing began on 4th and would take approx 2 weeks.... whats your thoughts on flow rates beeing announced prior to next friday the 19th.... is it possible we would have pre clean up flows announced....

Also whats your time line on Easily testing how long till fracs begin and end IYO....

And am i correct in assuming Morgan will be straight ont he back of Weston, with Rancho on the back of Easily..... who owns the rigs, are these hilcorps now or TCEI's...and if they are still owned by TCEI does that mean hilcorp have two spares up there sleeve ready to start Morgan and Rancho

Ta in advance,.


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> Agent they said Weston fraccing began on 4th and would take approx 2 weeks.... whats your thoughts on flow rates being announced prior to next friday the 19th.... is it possible we would have pre clean up flows announced....
> 
> Also whats your time line on Easily testing how long till fracs begin and end IYO....
> 
> And am i correct in assuming Morgan will be straight ont he back of Weston, with Rancho on the back of Easily..... who owns the rigs, are these hilcorps now or TCEI's...and if they are still owned by TCEI does that mean hilcorp have two spares up there sleeve ready to start Morgan and Rancho
> 
> Ta in advance,.




hey condog

i should charge by the hour now!!

lol

weston is scheduled for a 14 day frac, so literally a day a stage.. it would be near impossible to know what day flow rates are announced, as there is no updates atm, the flow number of stages finished is unknown so you cant gauge timings. so its safe to assume it will be 14 days maybe less, if its more the jvp will announce its going to be longer.

easley was at td in the pilot hole, they will drill the turn, then case and cement that, then drill out and do the lateral. plenty of time b4 that one is finished. after the completion they will design a frac and get a crew on it pretty fast imho. 

morgan, the site was ready for a rig a few weeks back i heard from the locals.  timing on the well start up and what rig they use is entirley up to the operator hilcorp.

rancho is another permit, i am not sure if a pad is prepared as yet..

as for rigs, they are not rigs owned by the operator, so easley has a rig on it, its a patterson rig number 550.  if hilcoorp wanted 2 or 3 or 6 rigs they would discuss that with various rig operators and decide on which services to use.

i think there are about 1000 rigs stacked up in the usa atm.. i hear operators are working on a lot of them gearing them up.. with the shale gas and oil exploration boom its going nuts over there..


----------



## Miner

Agentm and ADI experts 

Could some one please view the posting by adobee in CTP and his alert on ADI.

I already have asked him but thought to draw your attention on the concerns raised in that thread.


----------



## jetblack

Miner , I would not worry about what Adobee said. What I think he means that because his luck is crappy he just wants you aware that it will follow him where ever he next goes.

Look at what ADI have , and the news that has been presented to you by Agent M and the others. Dont get distracted by the noise, it wasnt long ago Adobee had a time limit to sell because he was buying a house.

If I have this all wrong then I will stand corrected.


----------



## condog

Adobee your not welcome here...nobody who has bad luck is in any of the JV companies.....  lol

I?Ts all goood miner....he was giving ADI the thumbs up

Thanks Agent for such a detailed response.... mate if this comes off, i will pay you by the hour in beer.....the only international currency worth anything these days...lol

I know Hilcorp have only just taken over, but im sure they have one eye on the lease terms, the other on thier ROE for the year..... so id be expecting big and forthcoming announcments asap.... they wont want to be messing around.... they have $300m sitting in the kitty needs deploying or they look rediculous....

Bring on the hillcorp express.... i got my tickets, and soon i will be buying a family pass...


----------



## condog

Hey Rambling

You may have been mistakenly mistakenly correct on EOG landmen the other day....

EOG plans to boost investment and leases in Eagle Ford Shale Play, targeting oil


> Feb 11th 2010
> Mark Papa, chairman and chief executive of EOG Resources, said ......that the company will invest most of its capital in oil-related projects.
> 
> Papa said the Haynesville and Bossier Shales--two natural gas-rich rock formations in Louisiana--would be "the largest single driver" behind the increase in natural gas output. The company plans to drill 70 Haynesville and Bossier wells this year.
> 
> But EOG Resources did not provide details on the Eagle Ford Shale, a rapidly developing oil and gas field in South Texas, where the company has been drilling wells and leasing acreage.
> 
> *"Until our lease situation is tied up, we're not going to make any further comments," Papa said. *



From Wall Street Journal dot com


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yeah I had heard it was EOG again today but did not post at the risk of looking more stupid. I'm afraid it's too late. lol........

I'm just going to wait and see what sign they hang on the door and then we'll know for sure. :


----------



## bart9

These following graphs address EFS performance based on (8/8)'s oil and gas monthly production volumes reported to the TEXAS RRC. The volumes in circles are "actuals" ...the following red path is the best fit following evident decline rates. The two errant oil wells remain somewhat a mystery.... but I plotted them as reported. To nullify the obvious anticipated backlash I've chosen not to identify the specific wells nor location.....The conclusions you reach are your own...

B.


----------



## Agentm

from saf a few days back, remember the sugarkane is way overpressurised compared to the eagleford wells they refer to, and all sugarkane wells results are not in the survey map

i know what conoco expectations are, and its not 2 -5 bcfe





RRC Texas Website

Eagle Ford Shale Play
Highlights

First entry description of the Eagle Ford Shale published by the RRC on 7 Feb including the following statements.-

Early production figures indicate that individual wells will experience total production of between 2 billion cubic feet and 5 billion cubic feet (bcf) with more liquid hydrocarbons than other shale fields. Initial drilling and completion costs have been averaging about $5 million per well

The Eagle Ford shale appears attractive because of several additional factors:

It has a much higher carbonate to shale percentage, thus making it more brittle and fracable;

It is not highly pressured (as the Haynesville Shale).







http://209.85.135.132/search?q=cach...ndex.php+eagle+ford+shale&cd=22&hl=en&ct=clnk


----------



## Miner

bart9 said:


> These following graphs address EFS performance based on (8/8)'s oil and gas monthly production volumes reported to the TEXAS RRC. The volumes in circles are "actuals" ...the following red path is the best fit following evident decline rates. The two errant oil wells remain somewhat a mystery.... but I plotted them as reported. To nullify the obvious anticipated backlash I've chosen not to identify the specific wells nor location.....The conclusions you reach are your own...
> 
> B.




Mate Bart 9

I just do not know how some of you guys like  Agentm, you, Condog get such an excellent information and you give us the privy of sharing that too. 

Well done mate and to be honest, the graphs are too technical for me and this not a joke.  I think it is time to go back to school and do some serious studies on oil and gas to get the best out of such postings and to put my money right spot (not damn scrip like BCC ).

ADI price today reflects the good work some of you (Hello Agentm - you are listening too) have done and disseminated .

Regards


----------



## Tordilla Kid

To my knowledge C.W. Lake and Associates out of Kennedy has been representing EOG in Karnes County for about a year now.  They were gettin' after it six to eight months ago, then a lull.  Now, in a recent conversation with a Carroll Lake landman (details spared), he indicated that his firm has 40 landmen working Karnes County.  All EOG most likely.  The guy I talked to was representing EOG.  I don't think much of either, but that's neither here nor there.  

BTW, the TRRC info about Eagle Ford is like Prince playing the Super Bowl--that just ain't right!  The Who were OK, but I'm in favor of AC/DC next time around, obviously.

BTW, there's an E&P in the play that starts with a "C" then a "vowel" and then a "French" ending like "butt."  Hey French and butt in the same sentence, and I'm in trouble with Sweetie, St. Valentine's day coming up and all. Dang, I got to get some flowers, or candles or something, in the AM.

Happy Trails,  Tordilla Kid (Roll the "rrrr," "di" is "dee," "lla" is "ya" and "Kid" is "Keed.")  I know it's not PC, but it's authentic outlaw.  

P.S.  There are vatos from Laredo who run stolen cars down FM 791, but I'm not one of them anymore lol.


----------



## condog

Miner said:


> Mate Bart 9
> 
> I just do not know how some of you guys like  Agentm, you, Condog get such an excellent information and you give us the privy of sharing that too.
> 
> Well done mate and to be honest, the graphs are too technical for me and this not a joke.  I think it is time to go back to school and do some serious studies on oil and gas to get the best out of such postings and to put my money right spot (not damn scrip like BCC ).
> 
> ADI price today reflects the good work some of you (Hello Agentm - you are listening too) have done and disseminated .
> 
> Regards




Investing and some ( i repeat some ) threads in here and hc plus talking and reading is the best school there is...... the best hourly rate you will ever get is learning how to invest, learning how to evaluate small caps...bar none...

miner you wil find experts on a stock in some threads eg: agent in here, use their knowledge to learn and google, google news, google then when your exhausted google again.... subscribe to news announcments eg "eagle ford" & "austin chalk" "Hilcorp eagle ford" etc , read there reports and search for analyst reports, and you wont miss a beat.... but always check the cash flow statements to look for debt, cash problems and truth...


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> Investing and some ( i repeat some ) threads in here and hc plus talking and reading is the best school there is...... the best hourly rate you will ever get is learning how to invest, learning how to evaluate small caps...bar none...
> 
> miner you wil find experts on a stock in some threads eg: agent in here, use their knowledge to learn and google, google news, google then when your exhausted google again.... subscribe to news announcments eg "eagle ford" & "austin chalk" "Hilcorp eagle ford" etc , read there reports and search for analyst reports, and you wont miss a beat.... but always check the cash flow statements to look for debt, cash problems and truth...




missing plenty of ingredients, but a few factors are mentioned by you..

you have no idea about me condog, and what methods and tools i use are not visible to you, all you will ever see is essentially only aspects of my research that i share..

but researching with the right attitude is what makes it work


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> missing plenty of ingredients, but a few factors are mentioned by you..
> 
> you have no idea about me condog, and what methods and tools i use are not visible to you, all you will ever see is essentially only aspects of my research that i share..
> 
> but researching with the right attitude is what makes it work




Arr but i do know that you know a lot about this stock and the shales and that makes you the expert on this topic in here.....people would be well advised to listen to you on this topic....

Yes its a pretty simplistic overview of the tens of thousands of hours spent learning and reading but its a damn good starting point...a good fast track....for others...Ive found formal eduactaion pretty slow boring and out dated on most investing topics.... the cutting edge stuff is in doing it yourself and with the knowledg of those that are also doing it, not those that are teaching it...

Anyway its a lot of topic so lets get back to ADI...which is far more exciting and interesting...


----------



## Miner

condog said:


> Arr but i do know that you know a lot about this stock and the shales and that makes you the expert on this topic in here.....people would be well advised to listen to you on this topic....
> 
> Yes its a pretty simplistic overview of the tens of thousands of hours spent learning and reading but its a damn good starting point...a good fast track....for others...Ive found formal eduactaion pretty slow boring and out dated on most investing topics.... the cutting edge stuff is in doing it yourself and with the knowledg of those that are also doing it, not those that are teaching it...
> 
> Anyway its a lot of topic so lets get back to ADI...which is far more exciting and interesting...






Agentm said:


> missing plenty of ingredients, but a few factors are mentioned by you..
> 
> you have no idea about me condog, and what methods and tools i use are not visible to you, all you will ever see is essentially only aspects of my research that i share..
> 
> but researching with the right attitude is what makes it work




Dear AgentM and Condog

Let us come back to ADI and thanks for every word both of you said.

Thanks again

MIner


----------



## Miner

Lucky_Country said:


> Cant belive someone sold at 43.5 right on the close they will *never get ADI at those prices ever again.*




I was intrigued to learn more about Eagleford Shale, ADI, AUT relationship by visiting websites and past postings in ASF in this thread.

Way back 2006 the postings suggest ADI and AUT were hot cakes. 

I need to follow more and can not be done over night. But it seems both ADI and AUT have had lovely rise and may be future is turning back after 4 years

Good luck holders


----------



## mir

miner this is my simplistic view on things back then ,much much different now.the jvp knew what they had & the potential of it, but drilling , completions & fracing was guess work & until it was worked out by us or others(conoco,& few more) it was only potential. we are now seeing great results & getting better all over the place.


----------



## condog

mir said:


> miner this is my simplistic view on things back then ,much much different now.the jvp knew what they had & the potential of it, but drilling , completions & fracing was guess work & until it was worked out by us or others(conoco,& few more) it was only potential. we are now seeing great results & getting better all over the place.




I agree.MIR......when you have companies like Petrohawk, Conoco, and Pioneer publicly proclaiming how Eagle Ford and Haynesville has or is projected to significantly help their numbers....its the real deal....

When you have Mobil buting TXO to get exposure to on shore USA plays its become a serious proposition.....  now BP is allegedly sniffing around  ...  a lot has changed in 4 years that makes this not potential anymore...its actually happening...... and happening at a rediculous pace...


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> I agree.MIR......when you have companies like Petrohawk, Conoco, and Pioneer publicly proclaiming how Eagle Ford and Haynesville has or is projected to significantly help their numbers....its the real deal....
> 
> When you have Mobil buting TXO to get exposure to on shore USA plays its become a serious proposition.....  now BP is allegedly sniffing around  ...  a lot has changed in 4 years that makes this not potential anymore...its actually happening...... and happening at a rediculous pace...




condog

mobil have been around in a lot from a long way back..

in a very odd way they are directly benefiting from the eagleford 

lol


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> mobil have been around in a lot from a long way back..
> 
> in a very odd way they are directly benefiting from the eagleford
> 
> lol




Yeh i know but when they are making acquisitions like TXO it would seem they are extremely serious about fast tracking there shale plays.... they want the personell, acerage....and whole package now....and they are not prepared to be patient and grow through organic....they mean business and they mean it now....

The other thing is the more major that take a stake force more others to take a stake to protect market share....its a nice development....agent have you or anyone else heard anything yet about BP....and wht there intentions are??


----------



## estseon

With the oil giants, I think that it is more a case of re-alignment of portfolios away from areas where the 'rule of law' is rarely seen and more rarely heeded.

The Eagleford might be a jackpot for our company and even the larger of the domestic US oil companies but I would tend to think that it is of less importance and significance to the Giants, who are looking for a bridge to maintain reserves until higher prices justify exploration and development of places like Greenland and development of the Canadian tar sands.

The Giants' shareholders are possibly starting to get a bit jaundiced with nationalisation, expropriation of assets, kidnap of personnel, spurious tax charges and environmental damage fines, reneging on contracts, war mongers and so on.


----------



## Agentm

ADI  AUT and EKA now dominate the tipping comp this month

clearly the 40% rise is amongst these partners is no fluke, there is genuine across the board support for all three

rumours of a new rig, of kennedy doubling production, of ops on all sites really.. 

and with all that the speculation is rife on the share.

imho any positive announcements in the coming week will generate a lot of excitement and possibly see some healthy buying into all three partners..

best of luck to all holders


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> lol
> 
> i think they are fracing all three straight away
> 
> 
> so one after the other..  i think exactly 36 days after the 14th of this month the sp will fly up, and all in one day,  and be north of $1 and heading for $2
> 
> pity you will be selling the day before, (the 35th day) but you will have a nice house..
> 
> maybe wait a few months then you can buy a whole town
> 
> lol




Agentm
As has been said before your time & research put into this area has much been appreciated over the coarse of time.
Do you still feel that ADI has the potential to reach $2?
Or perhaps even a take over?


----------



## mir

very good day for adi ,aut & eka , the next couple of days  should be  very interesting re weston ip.


----------



## SouthTexasPetro

agentm,

what is this of Kennedy doubling production?  That seems to be a little much considering its already high rates of condensate.  Any new word on Weston/Easley?


----------



## Agentm

SouthTexasPetro said:


> agentm,
> 
> what is this of Kennedy doubling production?  That seems to be a little much considering its already high rates of condensate.  Any new word on Weston/Easley?




hey south texas


dont take too much notice on the rumours..

it was stated on a uk forum by someone who has been around a long time and often comes up with some remarkably accurate one liners from time to time..

like mir for instance and plymouth on the hc forum..

i cant see it doubling myself, but there was a recent well in mcmullen where a liner was pu in and the increase was dramatic.. 8mmcfpd to 11mmcfpd after the production string,, and that was reported by the management on seeking alpha,, so i take that one seriously

jancha

adi easily is a $1 share and $1.80 is reported by hartleys

imho there is little research i am doing that is demonstrating the eagleford is all garbage and all operators and landmen are clambering over nothing..

aussie market yet to wake up on the play.. be good when it does..


----------



## SouthTexasPetro

Look to hear something soon on Weston results.  Frac should be completed by now...  Hopefully another Kennedy type results


----------



## estseon

southtexas

it was drilled in a different horizon.

What we don't know is whether Hilcorp managed to frac both the Eagleford and the Austin from Kennedy.

Weston is in the Austin. I suppose, technically, they could frac down into the Eagleford...don't know - we shall have to see. But it was a virgin well. Kennedy had had 2 fracs previously (bottom 600ft) and the 2nd blocked up - had to be abandoned because of pumping pressures. It wouldn't be surprising if that caused the problem with the liner that resulted in the final 6 stages being abandoned this time. They fracced 2,200 ft and 600 ft of that had been previously gummed up. What a result!


----------



## Joe Blow

I see a lot of price targets being thrown around in this thread with no attempt at substantiation. I really hope this thread isn't going back to the bad old days of 2006/2007.

I would like to remind everyone that if you post a price target, you are placing a valuation on a company and you *must* provide some fairly detailed analysis to support your case. Otherwise it's just ramping.


----------



## mir

joe blow i don't post much but do know a bit about this play,i remember  a while back some mod posting stuff without much substance , a bit like your last post.


----------



## Agentm

Joe Blow said:


> I see a lot of price targets being thrown around in this thread with no attempt at substantiation. I really hope this thread isn't going back to the bad old days of 2006/2007.
> 
> I would like to remind everyone that if you post a price target, you are placing a valuation on a company and you *must* provide some fairly detailed analysis to support your case. Otherwise it's just ramping.




joe.. totally understand where your coming from..

if harlteys sees the upside of the play at 180 cents then i cant say i disagree other than saying their calculations were done on very conservative estimates..  imho the value of adi will creep into the share as they continue to announce the successes and the play becomes "derisked" by the very cautious aussie investors.. when you consider how many small caps are blatantly misleading their investors with garbage announcements,, the better ones like adi with geologists on the board making the conservative calls throughout, the risk of being misled is minimised.. 

adi management will keep the value in the share by carefully orchestrating the rapid development of the eagleford/ sugarkane field, and its evident they have not bitten off more than they can chew and are not languishing with phenomenal acreages that is totally unmanageable to a small cap.. 

my view on hartleys upside is that it is a totally realistic outcome for adi joe....


----------



## condog

One only needs to look at the AUT investor presentation from november then extrapolate that onto ADI ....so far everything except Kowalick and 6/14ths of Kennedy is on target.... so it should be reasonably easy to come up with a detailed projection of current and future value....

Overlay the value of Morgan and Rancho with say 14 or less stages and you will have a 90 day price target...or to be conservative base them on Kennedy

I will run one in the AUT and you can bash it or accept it then modify it for ADI..

Congrats on your new 52wk high of 24c....


----------



## jancha

Joe Blow said:


> I see a lot of price targets being thrown around in this thread with no attempt at substantiation. I really hope this thread isn't going back to the bad old days of 2006/2007.
> 
> I would like to remind everyone that if you post a price target, you are placing a valuation on a company and you *must* provide some fairly detailed analysis to support your case. Otherwise it's just ramping.




Does Hartley's analysis @ $1.80 for ADI support the case?
No ramping intended. Just trying to justify ADI value.


----------



## Joe Blow

Agentm said:


> joe.. totally understand where your coming from..
> 
> if harlteys sees the upside of the play at 180 cents then i cant say i disagree other than saying their calculations were done on very conservative estimates..  imho the value of adi will creep into the share as they continue to announce the successes and the play becomes "derisked" by the very cautious aussie investors.. when you consider how many small caps are blatantly misleading their investors with garbage announcements,, the better ones like adi with geologists on the board making the conservative calls throughout, the risk of being misled is minimised..
> 
> adi management will keep the value in the share by carefully orchestrating the rapid development of the eagleford/ sugarkane field, and its evident they have not bitten off more than they can chew and are not languishing with phenomenal acreages that is totally unmanageable to a small cap..
> 
> my view on hartleys upside is that it is a totally realistic outcome for adi joe....




I certainly don't mind price targets made by brokers being quoted, as long as it is mentioned when they made it, so it can be verified. If it's on the web, then please link to it. This sort of stuff is in the public domain and is fine to post.

However, price targets posted by thread participants must be accompanied by some analysis that supports their point of view. 

Don't want to make a huge issue of this, just wanted to remind people to support their assertions - especially price targets - with facts and analysis.


----------



## Bigukraine

jancha said:


> Does Hartley's analysis @ $1.80 for ADI support the case?
> No ramping intended. Just trying to justify ADI value.




Just a friendly suggestion go to the adi web site and you can get the hartley's analysis for free which will help you to  DYOR.:fu:


----------



## estseon

Hartleys report 1/2/10

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf

Their condensate/gas mix assumption is on the dry side.

Specific comment by the company can be found on this ASX release concerning Kennedy. The mix calculates at 258bcpd per 1mmcfgpd and the company comment on this uses the word "expected",

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...February 2010 - Kennedy Operations Update.pdf

As an alternative valuation, it is possible to speculate on a possible drilling programme, such as that suggested by AUT in a presentation in Aug 2008, or to look at activity in the region (as continuously posted by agentm) and to construct a "what/if" model plugging in figures based on Kennedy actual production per 1,000ft of pay, ADI's presentation on the new design of wells (expected length of new lateral pay), oil & gas prices, tax, royalties, estimated operating costs, and that will spill out a income stream that can be stress tested. Following which, a range of price/earnings multiples can be applied, a presumption that there will be no further capital issues necessary, ad it is then easy to find a credible scenario that would support the Hartleys price on an earnings basis.

In terms of data posted, this must rank as one of the richest chat threads in the cyberspace generated from planet Earth. That is not to say that there are far richer threads in the cyberspaces generated by the infinite number of replica planet Earths that must exist if you follow the belief that the universe is infinite. If, as implied by many astronomers, you take the view that the universe is finite (by calculating the mass of the universe that is implicit) there is then the philosophical question of what lies "beyond" it. That matters not here, however. Taking the view that the universe is finite restricts, as a corollary, the number (unproven) of potential cyberspace threads on which views on ADI may be posted. So, following that view of the universe, I would hazard again the suggestion that this is one of the most data-rich threads in the universe unless you, or someone else, can successfully persuade me that the universe is infinite and can resolve some of the paradoxes that mathematicians enjoy torturing themselves with such as proving that, despite the definition of infinite, there could be an infinite number of infinite universes which, to me, just throws in the towel, and reverts to the biblical account.

Thank you for your attention to my ramblings. Perhaps there is no such thing as 'certainty''. Perhaps everything is relative.


----------



## Speculator

estseon said:


> Hartleys report 1/2/10
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf
> 
> Their condensate/gas mix assumption is on the dry side.
> 
> Specific comment by the company can be found on this ASX release concerning Kennedy. The mix calculates at 258bcpd per 1mmcfgpd and the company comment on this uses the word "expected",
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...February 2010 - Kennedy Operations Update.pdf
> 
> As an alternative valuation, it is possible to speculate on a possible drilling programme, such as that suggested by AUT in a presentation in Aug 2008, or to look at activity in the region (as continuously posted by agentm) and to construct a "what/if" model plugging in figures based on Kennedy actual production per 1,000ft of pay, ADI's presentation on the new design of wells (expected length of new lateral pay), oil & gas prices, tax, royalties, estimated operating costs, and that will spill out a income stream that can be stress tested. Following which, a range of price/earnings multiples can be applied, a presumption that there will be no further capital issues necessary, ad it is then easy to find a credible scenario that would support the Hartleys price on an earnings basis.
> 
> In terms of data posted, this must rank as one of the richest chat threads in the cyberspace generated from planet Earth. That is not to say that there are far richer threads in the cyberspaces generated by the infinite number of replica planet Earths that must exist if you follow the belief that the universe is infinite. If, as implied by many astronomers, you take the view that the universe is finite (by calculating the mass of the universe that is implicit) there is then the philosophical question of what lies "beyond" it. That matters not here, however. Taking the view that the universe is finite restricts, as a corollary, the number (unproven) of potential cyberspace threads on which views on ADI may be posted. So, following that view of the universe, I would hazard again the suggestion that this is one of the most data-rich threads in the universe unless you, or someone else, can successfully persuade me that the universe is infinite and can resolve some of the paradoxes that mathematicians enjoy torturing themselves with such as proving that, despite the definition of infinite, there could be an infinite number of infinite universes which, to me, just throws in the towel, and reverts to the biblical account.
> 
> Thank you for your attention to my ramblings. Perhaps there is no such thing as 'certainty''. Perhaps everything is relative.




Label on joint should read: 

'WARNING: Its is best to wait at least three hours after puffing to commence posting on internet, failure to comply may result in slightly abusive banter and personal regrets after a good nights sleep.

Rule No.1: Never speculate inebriated or if you are sober and are seriously contemplating the existence of multiple universes... 

I'd suggest youve gone a little bit to macro to be able to infer anything that really makes any applicable sense at that point.


-Speculator-


----------



## jancha

Bigukraine said:


> Just a friendly suggestion go to the adi web site and you can get the hartley's analysis for free which will help you to  DYOR.:fu:




Taxi driver in town!
What are you doing on a thread which requires some sort of intelligence?
I know about Hartley's recommendation & I know it's free.
Hence the comment.'mandreou@aae.com.au'


----------



## Agentm

indicative opening says .25  and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..

thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report 

i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..

any chartist want to venture a comment atm?


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> indicative opening says .25  and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..
> 
> thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report
> 
> i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..
> 
> any chartist want to venture a comment atm?




Hi Agentm

Surely we look forward shiny stars for ADI today and future

But I did not realise you are an astrologer too.

Normally Cheiro and other astrologers were very good chartists to lay the horoscopes and predict. How could then you avoided not being a chartist too


----------



## WRONG'UN

Firstly, Agentm, thanks for your fantastic work on this thread - I am indebted! 
I think it's a great chart - just emerging from a nice "cup and handle" pattern, the top of which is coincidentally at the important old support/resistance level of 20 cents - see attached weekly chart.
The target for the c&h breakout coincides pretty well with the earlier high at 36 cents - looks like a clear run if it can get past the top of a gap on the daily chart at 25.0c. On the way to 36c it may try to retest the 20 cent level - the gap at 25.0 cents on the daily chart may be a point for this reaction to start - no guarrantees, of course!
On balance volume is solid, particularly on the daily chart.
Overall it looks like it's early days in the chart - if it does get to $1, it wouldn't be the first time it's done it.

The charts for AUT and EKA are quite similar to ADI.
That's my five cents worth - hope it's of some use!


----------



## radioham6

Agentm said:


> indicative opening says .25  and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..
> 
> thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report
> 
> i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..
> 
> any chartist want to venture a comment atm?




Hi AgentM & others,

May I take this opportunity to thank you AgentM, for the research on this very stock over the life of this thread. 
It's been one of the most interesting and informative threads on the forum. Well done.

I'm a holder and have only recently doubled my holding over the past weeks and agree that $1 is possible in the near future.


----------



## Agentm

WRONG'UN said:


> Firstly, Agentm, thanks for your fantastic work on this thread - I am indebted!
> I think it's a great chart - just emerging from a nice "cup and handle" pattern, the top of which is coincidentally at the important old support/resistance level of 20 cents - see attached weekly chart.
> The target for the c&h breakout coincides pretty well with the earlier high at 36 cents - looks like a clear run if it can get past the top of a gap on the daily chart at 25.0c. On the way to 36c it may try to retest the 20 cent level - the gap at 25.0 cents on the daily chart may be a point for this reaction to start - no guarrantees, of course!
> On balance volume is solid, particularly on the daily chart.
> Overall it looks like it's early days in the chart - if it does get to $1, it wouldn't be the first time it's done it.
> 
> The charts for AUT and EKA are quite similar to ADI.
> That's my five cents worth - hope it's of some use!




thanks for the kind words

it becomes apparent that there is this desire by the market to be part of the hilcorp sugarkane express that left the station week or so ago.. but its also apparent it is gaining momentum..


----------



## skip9

Sorry to be ignorant when i say this, but i have been watching this stock closely of late and it has only been going one way and that is up. 

What is it about ADI that is making it such a strong stock that it continues to rise? More importantly what is the prediction among shareholders where the price will go, both long and short term?


----------



## rock86

skip9 said:


> Sorry to be ignorant when i say this, but i have been watching this stock closely of late and it has only been going one way and that is up.
> 
> What is it about ADI that is making it such a strong stock that it continues to rise? More importantly what is the prediction among shareholders where the price will go, both long and short term?




Not to be ignorant back, but have a read of the thread, ADI's announcements and what is happening on the ground with the JVP's. There's plenty of reason's ATM, so DYOR


----------



## Agentm

skip9 said:


> Sorry to be ignorant when i say this, but i have been watching this stock closely of late and it has only been going one way and that is up.
> 
> What is it about ADI that is making it such a strong stock that it continues to rise? More importantly what is the prediction among shareholders where the price will go, both long and short term?




skip

that topic has been discussed in the last day or so, just look up the page and one page back

hartleys report is in easily accessible from the adi website

hope it helps


----------



## Ramblin Round

Skip,

A few of us here are landowners on this play in Texas. I fall directly in that category and I mean "directly" in every sense of the word. We wondered for the last couple years what the big deal was around here with all these rigs. I stumbled upon this forum and immediately after reading the 200+ pages invested in this stock. I among others see with our own eyes daily what the fruition of this area holds and bask in the knowledge that ADI is in on the play at 20%.

My suggestion is to rearead the entire post twice and then revisit your own assumptions. After I rearead it twice, I wished I had found it a year ago and bought in then. The internet is a wonderful tool. Good luck to all holders. I was very, very pleased with my ADI holdings today.


----------



## condog

Hey rambling have they tapped on your door yet...

It might pay to put a sign out the front sayting land men welcome with all good offers....

Low ball offers will be shot on the spot....

Or FREE coffe and biscuits to all landmen.....get em inand pick there brains...then come tell us...


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> any chartist want to venture a comment atm?



.

 All the charts do is record the past. The future will be guided by the results and for ADI these will in no way follow the same path as the past. Predicting the oil and gas flows is what is needed.:


----------



## Speculator

Agentm said:


> indicative opening says .25  and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..
> 
> thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report
> 
> i am no chartist, but as an astrologer i would say all the stars are in alignment..
> 
> any chartist want to venture a comment atm?




Hi AgentM

I acknowledge that you admit charting is not your forte. However after viewing numerous stocks SP action which have been in similar positions to ADI I could not but help but notice there is in many  cases a period where (I assume) long term holders take significant prophets driving the SP down (normally for approx 2 weeks).

If we look back into ADI's history we can see this occurring in Nov 2006. 
ADI was re-rated and made an impressive total gain of 300% in the months of Sep-Nov only to fall 33% over two weeks in mid Nov and then to recover 40% in the following two weeks.

I understand ADI will see semi large price fluctuations as peoples values of the stock differ, people get swept up in the 'mania' and people take profits however in your opinion will we have a similar event to that of Nov 2006 where longer term and I imagine in this case seriously longer term holders take significant profits?

And if so do you intend to trade the action?

Purely asking this out of curiosity as I have my action plan set in stone.

Disc: I hold many parcels and intend to trade only one of them as I am still very new to this but would like to utilse my 'new charting skills' and programs, plus I can imagine it will be quite thrilling. The rest of my parcels will just hold tight for the next two years or so.

I adress this to you Agent as you clearly have the best knowledge base and history with ADI however any teccies please feel free to add your 

Thank you.


----------



## Agentm

speculator

i invested for the outcome of the wells adi drilled, weston kennedy and kowalik

my plan was to see that through then re evaluate based on what plans the jvp had at the time. if no plans were in place then i think my decision would be made for me.. but as adi now has a serious partner who has taken over as the operator.. well thats a real bonus dont you think? 

i invest for an outcome.

when the wells are finished the plan will be somewhat different to how they looked 12 months ago... what is evident is that adi has seen the recovery of the oil prices, survived the gfc and selling an asset.. has a new farm in operator, and its obvious to me that the stunning successes in the sugarkane/eagleford in the near region needs to be considered,  and in the adi acreages also.. all this has really changed the situation considerably.. all things seem to falling into the right place

some investors like adobee have declared their entry point and exit.. 

some are long term holders like myself

my plan is to reassess adi once the results come through. and i am sure that the conservative upside value of adi that hartleys put forward will come if the wells continue to produce as they have been.. for me that upside journey is exactly why i invested.. oddly for the upside not the downside 

every investor has a different entry and exit strategy, some may share similar strategies..    we saw heavy selling by trojan s they exited mid 2009.. and speculating on what will happen in the future on the sp is just that.. speculation..

the way i view things is that people will invest at different times in a share as they see fit. some like me like the high risk high reward and invest and add as it suits.. others will wait for definitive news and invest on that plateau.. less risk reward..

great days ahead for those who understand what the potential of eagleford and sugarkane to be, and understand it to be a legitimate play.. and those understanding the economics of it will imho be well rewarded for waiting for the value to arrive in the share..

best of luck to all holders..


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> speculator
> 
> i invested for the outcome of the wells adi drilled, weston kennedy and kowalik
> 
> my plan was to see that through then re evaluate based on what plans the jvp had at the time. if no plans were in place then i think my decision would be made for me.. but as adi now has a serious partner who has taken over as the operator.. well thats a real bonus dont you think?
> 
> i invest for an outcome.
> 
> when the wells are finished the plan will be somewhat different to how they looked 12 months ago... what is evident is that adi has seen the recovery of the oil prices, survived the gfc and selling an asset.. has a new farm in operator, and its obvious to me that the stunning successes in the sugarkane/eagleford in the near region needs to be considered,  and in the adi acreages also.. all this has really changed the situation considerably.. all things seem to falling into the right place
> 
> some investors like adobee have declared their entry point and exit..
> 
> some are long term holders like myself
> 
> my plan is to reassess adi once the results come through. and i am sure that the conservative upside value of adi that hartleys put forward will come if the wells continue to produce as they have been.. for me that upside journey is exactly why i invested.. oddly for the upside not the downside
> 
> every investor has a different entry and exit strategy, some may share similar strategies..    we saw heavy selling by trojan s they exited mid 2009.. and speculating on what will happen in the future on the sp is just that.. speculation..
> 
> the way i view things is that people will invest at different times in a share as they see fit. some like me like the high risk high reward and invest and add as it suits.. others will wait for definitive news and invest on that plateau.. less risk reward..
> 
> great days ahead for those who understand what the potential of eagleford and sugarkane to be, and understand it to be a legitimate play.. and those understanding the economics of it will imho be well rewarded for waiting for the value to arrive in the share..
> 
> best of luck to all holders..





Without stuffing around to put neatly what you said in this post alone today, I believe should be worth of $10,000 (considering some one  seriously investing). 

What you have been saying for some time on ADI if people have listened, understood and invested would make them a million. It is of course driven by the gutts, amount of initial investment and time. (Thankfully you have joined  in ADI belatedly by Condog, Bart 9 and few others amade the thread stronger.   IMO I saw  no ramper in this thread due to high technical information being flown here)

I have been greatly motivated by your postings (so far  ) and surely to keep ADI in my portfolio considering it is the only scrip which has increased by more than 300%. I wished to have invested all my dollars into this scrip to make my portfolio a super green. 

But I lacked knowledge hence confidence and gutts


----------



## jancha

Miner said:


> Without stuffing around to put neatly what you said in this post alone today, I believe should be worth of $10,000 (considering some one  seriously investing).
> 
> What you have been saying for some time on ADI if people have listened, understood and invested would make them a million. It is of course driven by the gutts, amount of initial investment and time. (Thankfully you have joined  in ADI belatedly by Condog, Bart 9 and few others amade the thread stronger.   IMO I saw  no ramper in this thread due to high technical information being flown here)
> 
> I have been greatly motivated by your postings (so far  ) and surely to keep ADI in my portfolio considering it is the only scrip which has increased by more than 300%. I wished to have invested all my dollars into this scrip to make my portfolio a super green.
> 
> But I lacked knowledge hence confidence and gutts





Been holding for over a year now & have been picking up more shares on the dips.
However I dont thing i would have bought into ADI without Agentm's postings & research. Much thanks for that.
This is one share i wouldn't sell in a hurry unlike WDR where i bought @ 13c & sold @ 41c only to watch it go to 80c. Sold too early.
Imo this is just the beginning for ADI with the sp rising.
As you have said Agentm everything has fallen into place with Hilcorp ect. 
All looking good imo. Currently up 121%


----------



## jetblack

estseon said:


> Hartleys report 1/2/10
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/Hartleys Broker Report 1 February 2010.pdf
> 
> Their condensate/gas mix assumption is on the dry side.
> 
> Specific comment by the company can be found on this ASX release concerning Kennedy. The mix calculates at 258bcpd per 1mmcfgpd and the company comment on this uses the word "expected",
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...February 2010 - Kennedy Operations Update.pdf
> 
> As an alternative valuation, it is possible to speculate on a possible drilling programme, such as that suggested by AUT in a presentation in Aug 2008, or to look at activity in the region (as continuously posted by agentm) and to construct a "what/if" model plugging in figures based on Kennedy actual production per 1,000ft of pay, ADI's presentation on the new design of wells (expected length of new lateral pay), oil & gas prices, tax, royalties, estimated operating costs, and that will spill out a income stream that can be stress tested. Following which, a range of price/earnings multiples can be applied, a presumption that there will be no further capital issues necessary, ad it is then easy to find a credible scenario that would support the Hartleys price on an earnings basis.
> 
> In terms of data posted, this must rank as one of the richest chat threads in the cyberspace generated from planet Earth. That is not to say that there are far richer threads in the cyberspaces generated by the infinite number of replica planet Earths that must exist if you follow the belief that the universe is infinite. If, as implied by many astronomers, you take the view that the universe is finite (by calculating the mass of the universe that is implicit) there is then the philosophical question of what lies "beyond" it. That matters not here, however. Taking the view that the universe is finite restricts, as a corollary, the number (unproven) of potential cyberspace threads on which views on ADI may be posted. So, following that view of the universe, I would hazard again the suggestion that this is one of the most data-rich threads in the universe unless you, or someone else, can successfully persuade me that the universe is infinite and can resolve some of the paradoxes that mathematicians enjoy torturing themselves with such as proving that, despite the definition of infinite, there could be an infinite number of infinite universes which, to me, just throws in the towel, and reverts to the biblical account.
> 
> Thank you for your attention to my ramblings. Perhaps there is no such thing as 'certainty''. Perhaps everything is relative.




I thought for a sec that you were pizzed, but then thinking more about your ramblings, you probably might be talking about time and relative dimensions in space.

And your relating this to the percentage that ADI have , as many think that 20%, 10% after  farm in is not much, but people dont understand this, and maybe you because you may well have been pizzed, but you knew that but really were'nt.

Where as an example of your time and relative dimensions in space would actually be Dr Who's phone both, "the Tardis" in relation to how big ADI acerage perecentage really is.


Hope this helps.


----------



## skip9

Ramblin Round said:


> Skip,
> 
> A few of us here are landowners on this play in Texas. I fall directly in that category and I mean "directly" in every sense of the word. We wondered for the last couple years what the big deal was around here with all these rigs. I stumbled upon this forum and immediately after reading the 200+ pages invested in this stock. I among others see with our own eyes daily what the fruition of this area holds and bask in the knowledge that ADI is in on the play at 20%.
> 
> My suggestion is to rearead the entire post twice and then revisit your own assumptions. After I rearead it twice, I wished I had found it a year ago and bought in then. The internet is a wonderful tool. Good luck to all holders. I was very, very pleased with my ADI holdings today.




Ramblin - Thanks for the great reply. I will certainly read over the thread and look into the company, my main concern is where the future of this company lies. Obviously it has a high of $2.47, but that was a long time ago. It has had some good raises over the last few days/weeks, should this continue to happen? i know its the question that everyone wants to know but what is the share price mark, you as shareholders are hoping for.

I am relatively new to the stock market and i am only 20yrs of age. I have been educating myself about stocks and am looking to hold for the medium - long term but do get confused when there is so much speculation about a stock.


----------



## doctorj

skip9 said:


> I am relatively new to the stock market and i am only 20yrs of age. I have been educating myself about stocks and am looking to hold for the medium - long term but do get confused when there is so much speculation about a stock.



This is probably the most sensible post here for some time. There's no doubt the company has something worth looking at, but it is a long way off a sure thing.  And if it does happen it will take a while, probably longer than most hope with plenty of ups and downs along the way.

The unrisked value published by Hartleys is just that, unrisked.  I don't know how Hartleys tracks this, but you could probably count the number of times these targets are achieved for a company like this on one hand.


----------



## estseon

jetblack said:


> I thought for a sec that you were pizzed, but then thinking more about your ramblings, you probably might be talking about time and relative dimensions in space.
> 
> And your relating this to the percentage that ADI have , as many think that 20%, 10% after  farm in is not much, but people dont understand this, and maybe you because you may well have been pizzed, but you knew that but really were'nt.
> 
> Where as an example of your time and relative dimensions in space would actually be Dr Who's phone both, "the Tardis" in relation to how big ADI acerage perecentage really is.
> 
> 
> Hope this helps.




Having followed agent's posts (initially on ADFVN re Empyrean) for almost 4 years, and having seen a lot of his assertions become proved, I find the suggestion that he is ramping as surreal as the mathematicians' ponderings on the meaning of infinity. I went a bit overboard.

As to ADI's valuation, the two R's, Revenues and Reserves, are both important, in my view. Agent has made the point that the speed of development is as important to SP progression as assessed reserves. Perhaps more important. However, having done some back of the envelope calculations making assumptions based on information in presentations made by ADI & AUT, I found that the Hartleys figure could be validated taking either route. I don't mean that both come out at $1.80. What I mean is that a figure of that order looks quite possible with upward revisions over later years as the development progresses, always assuming that ADI is still invested in those later years.

Looking at their website, Hilcorp seem to have built up their business by buying mature assets and applying technology to increase recovery. That, to me, seems to be precisely what we needed. Not one of the wells in Block A that EME has had an interest in, nor any of the Block B wells, including SL-1, has failed to find the HCs. Not one dry well. Nothing approaching a dry well. The problem has been on the engineering side. And that seems to be their skill.

It is far too early to make future assumptions but that one result with Kennedy is just so positive compared to the sad and sorry stories that we have heard over so many years that it is very difficult not to bubble with belief that Hilcorp will actually manage to crack the problems and make that acreage gush USDs.

And if Hilcorp meshes its skill and success (hopefully) with its financial muscle, and that is important because Hilcorp will be funding 50% of all costs after the free-carry, production could start escalating. In the meantime, the combination of the reduced WI and the cash reserves give comfort that ADI should have little problem in meeting its obligations.

Far, far better to have 10% of something producing revenues than 20% of hope buried over 2 miles underground.

It is also a point that seems to have been missed by the EME investors. The diluted interest is only 3% but it is all relative. 3% of something quite big for a company quite small is significant.

Incidentally, I noticed a slight dislocation in prices between ADI & AUT last night so I thought that I might dabble a bit in the latter and take a gamble on Longhorn & Ipanema.


----------



## nioka

Joe Blow said:


> I certainly don't mind price targets made by brokers being quoted, as long as it is mentioned when they made it, so it can be verified. If it's on the web, then please link to it. This sort of stuff is in the public domain and is fine to post.
> 
> However, price targets posted by thread participants must be accompanied by some analysis that supports their point of view.
> 
> Don't want to make a huge issue of this, just wanted to remind people to support their assertions - especially price targets - with facts and analysis.




One thing that reflects the factuality of some posts here is that three, possibly four, of the persons posting here are in the top twenty shareholder list. Putting your money where your mouth is should be some justification for suggesting a share value. ( Not that this post in any way is meant to criticise the ASF policy regarding ramping).


----------



## doctorj

nioka said:


> One thing that reflects the factuality of some posts here is that three, possibly four, of the persons posting here are in the top twenty shareholder list. Putting your money where your mouth is should be some justification for suggesting a share value. ( Not that this post in any way is meant to criticise the ASF policy regarding ramping).



Agreed, sort of (it also gives them more motivation to ramp).   At the very least it makes a nice change from those that don't back up their posts with hard cash.


----------



## Miner

nioka said:


> One thing that reflects the factuality of some posts here is that three, possibly four, of the persons posting here are in the top twenty shareholder list. Putting your money where your mouth is should be some justification for suggesting a share value. ( Not that this post in any way is meant to criticise the ASF policy regarding ramping).





I agree Nioka

IMO the ADI thread discussions and information exchanged are probably one of the best threads.

Personally I would like to see sometimes notes of encouragement from the Administrator and the Moderators. They behave like old school monitors. Always pull up negativity but world has changed. Taylor's scientific management theory of hire and fire is  just not valid. 

*The philosophy is to have penalties for speeding but also reward good drivers. *

Every one needs a bit of cuddle and hug. The dog in the house needs to be disciplined but also requires to be cuddled and appreciated. Not trying to lecture but for last two years never seen a complimentary note from the moderators or the administrator (sorry Joe but hope you would take it on board).

To conclude if every thread publishes information like ADI contributors ASF will have no doubt to be an outstanding site consistently. That means more advertisements and ROI  for Joe

Correction : I just got a nice compliment for my positive posting from one of the moderators within 2 minutes . I felt good and sharing with you all. Thank you moderator for restoring the confidence.


----------



## condog

estseon said:


> Far, far better to have 10% of something producing revenues than 20% of hope buried over 2 miles underground.
> 
> It is also a point that seems to have been missed by the EME investors. The diluted interest is only 3% but it is all relative. 3% of something quite big for a company quite small is significant.
> 
> Incidentally, I noticed a slight dislocation in prices between ADI & AUT last night so I thought that I might dabble a bit in the latter and take a gamble on Longhorn & Ipanema.




Yes i agree, and hopefully they can get Kowalik back on track with their skills.........

I wouldnt like to see them tinkering with kennedy till they have easly, weston online and  morgan as well as  rancho started.......


----------



## Agentm

great posts by all 

i totally understand where dr j is coming from and all here need to totally understand the adi share is HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD. and you always adjust your investment according to how you personally feel comfortable.. if you cant stand the heat then get the hell out of investing in this sector.. simple..

these shares fluctuate rapidly on sentiment and also gain value on the back of drilling results that are absolutely correctly reported.  asf should color the shares by catagories.. bright red for high risk,, yellow for low risk etc,, then those reading these threads will understand the context of what the investment is able to achieve..

there are plenty of cowboy directors on the boards of many small caps, and the oil and gas sector has a lot of them.. i follow a great deal of them and oddly they dont get penny of my investment dollar. i have been to seminars, seen them talk the talk, but i dont see them walk the talk..

adi is doing everything they announced in their strategy for the last 12 months. even achieved a farm in partner.. their share dropped to record lows with the gfc and the price of oil

adi has achieved significant upside in the past months, being critical and sceptical of me for delivering the information on the share and its drive out its lows is just bad form imho.. claiming i am ramping is the share when i am primarily pointing out the eagleford was always a legitimate target and seeing the oil giants chase the same play hard.. it validates the play and validates what i am saying..

being critical of those investing into and discussing the possibilities and eventualities/ outcomes of the risked value of a share is just bad form imho

we are all here to live and learn and explore..


----------



## Ramblin Round

At this point me whining about and wishing I would have invested more back at the .11 range is equivalent to ADI wishing they could have done something to own more than 20% of this wonderful unkown (at the time) and now tremendously popular Texas shale play. Guess it's all about what your  perspective is and which end of the stick you are on. Not to mention moeny involved.

There ain't no room for coulda, shoulda, woulda's here.


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> adi has achieved significant upside in the past months, being critical and sceptical of me for delivering the information on the share and its drive out its lows is just bad form imho.. claiming i am ramping is the share when i am primarily pointing out the eagleford was always a legitimate target and seeing the oil giants chase the same play hard.. it validates the play and validates what i am saying..
> 
> being critical of those investing into and discussing the possibilities and eventualities/ outcomes of the risked value of a share is just bad form imho
> 
> we are all here to live and learn and explore..




I hole heartedly agree..... 

Whether people agree with you or not the constant flow of news and opinions on this stock has been invaluable to many...

It seeems the people who go around in here accusing others of ramping, if there accusations are unfounded should sustain a significantly heavier penalty then that of ramping......as its effectively downramping and defamation in one....

I have read every post in this thread and can honeslty attest you have never once been anything but objective and intelligent.....well done, thanks and keep it up...

In response to rambling, yeh we all have stories about shoulda....the point is what do you do now....even if you bought at 11 and sold at 14c.....if now its 26c and next month you feel it will be 30c then its a buy... (after youve DYOR and sought advice of course)....irrespective of time and what you coulda, should, done...... the only thing not making it a buy is if you have something better to buy....(thats if in your opinion its heading up fast)


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> At this point me whining about and wishing I would have invested more back at the .11 range is equivalent to ADI wishing they could have done something to own more than 20% of this wonderful unkown (at the time) and now tremendously popular Texas shale play. Guess it's all about what your  perspective is and which end of the stick you are on. Not to mention moeny involved.
> 
> There ain't no room for coulda, shoulda, woulda's here.




rambling

adi could get more acreages, and had plenty of opportunity to. some of its jvp partners have. there are others near by who have huge stakes in the eagleford.

adi would have never been able to handle the 20% and trying to handle 10% of it will be a task in itself..  if you believe a small cap can handle more than that, and invest into that share.. then by your simple misunderstanding of what it costs to be in a world class play (like the sugarkane) could place your investment in a real tail spin as the market corrects to the reality of the costs,  and you will see every investor scamper for the exit and probably abuse their broker for completely missing the basics of economic modelling on the play.
i know of a few highly valued shares with share prices way way into the upside of the risked aspect of their valuations, (with no criticism by asf of the ramp crew on them) and they have no oil revenue at all coming in and are at the very beginning of an exploration into the eagleford and facing a monumental task to raise 100's of millions into billions needed to exploit their acreages. and without being the operator to boot!!  and i cant see them doing it in a pink fit..

rambling,, adi has more than enough to deal with on the hilcorp expansion into their acreages,, 240 wells.. they are not being greedy, not overextending and they will not require an immediate takeover or face financial disaster for lack of funding like many i believe are facing in the eagleford in the very near term.. happily holding with the ones who are walking the talk


----------



## estseon

I'd suggest that it's probably valid to look at the quality of Hilcorp. Nothing to 4th largest private E&P company in 20 years. They didn't do that either by messing things up or by taking excessive risk.

Doing a search on RRC for district 2 threw up 1,084 permits (some will be varied permits), most since 2001.


----------



## Ramblin Round

ADI is involved with 240 wells ? Wow. 

I know there are nothing but more leases and more wells being drilled in this area. All systems are go for profit and production !


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> ADI is involved with 240 wells ? Wow.
> 
> I know there are nothing but more leases and more wells being drilled in this area. All systems are go for profit and production !




240 wells is what its about, thats why i invested rambling.. for the oil thats under your land...

 adi aut and eka are killing them all on the stock market comp right now, first to third!!

the jvp have yet to report on ops this month.. we know weston is about to be reported on any day.. imho the share is looking for higher grounds and weston results may validate that claim.. theres been heavy speculation that the jvp is a leaky boat now that hilcorp is reluctant to have weekly updates on its acreages.. the 40% increase has not been questioned by the asx at all thus far.. but imho the vibe is very upbeat..

there are reports of the wells being 2 - 5 bcfe.. i think 5 - 8 bcfe will be used for our region myself

looking  forward to hilcorp doing its thing.  i look at who they employ, who they have hired in the recent months and my research is telling me they are financing and employing and hiring along a frame work that indicates expansion,,, waiting to see the indications of that research becoming publicly announced 

good luck to all holders in the coming weeks.. hilcorp express imho left the station some time ago some 400% ago.. lol...  and is gaining momentum

some got on the express early,, others will get on now and still have potentially an amazing  journey..

all imho and dyor


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

I am not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but what do you base your 5-8bcfe number on?  No well in this area that i know of points towards this number.  2-5 bcfe seems spot on to me.


----------



## banska bystrica

With all due respect agentm, to be trumpetting a 400% gain on ADI is a bit rich considering you were calling ADI a screaming buy at 70c (yes 70c) back a few years ago.
Love your research but no need to be blinkered. Other companies will be successful in the Eagleford shale.


----------



## Agentm

choppy

i think the oil aspect in some regions will tilt it up somewhat, the talk i hear from the conoco side of things was for the wells to be a lot higher than 5 bcfe. 

adi are looking at deterministic rates like 5.5 bcfe, which is a lot higher than the rates predicted for the eagleford play to the west where petrohawk are in mcmullen etc..  and traditionally adi have always been conservative in their projections. the operators make them understate everything dramatically or commercial reasons..  i think its early days in the sugarkane and maybe some improvements in the design and fracs will deliver more.. its apparent that there is progression occurring in the play that has yet to plateau

slide 15 in the adi presentation in nov 09 is a good guide to how things were being seen last year..

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/presentations/Adelphi AGM 25 Nov 2009 Presentation.pdf


----------



## Agentm

banska bystrica said:


> With all due respect agentm, to be trumpetting a 400% gain on ADI is a bit rich considering you were calling ADI a screaming buy at 70c (yes 70c) back a few years ago.
> Love your research but no need to be blinkered. Other companies will be successful in the Eagleford shale.




banska.. 

i think if you look at the companies in the eagleford, you would have to say they are doing pretty good.. and good on them i say!!


----------



## estseon

Rambling

As Agent said: "adi would have never been able to handle the 20% and trying to handle 10% of it will be a task in itself.. if you believe a small cap can handle more than that, and invest into that share.." 

So EME proved! It took an additional 12% WI on specified wells at the early stage for assuming a staggering additional 20% of costs.

Shareholders get precisely nowhere if the company has to double its issued share cap in order to service a 2 x higher WI. They just have the agony of waiting for the next capital raising.

At a 10% WI, ADI has cash to contribute to drilling post the free-carry costing, perhaps, $45m gross. Drilling costs are paid in advance, production revenues are paid in arrears. Sure, receivables can be sold. ADI looks pretty comfortable with that cushion of cash in place to fund its WI obligations pending self-financing of the drilling programme from production revenues.

Looking at the various risk factors - they've not drilled a dry well or anything approaching; they've got the funding in place to pay their share up to the point of having revenues streaming from 8 or 9 wells (2/3 fracced, 3 free-carry, 3 post free-carry assuming 2/3 rigs in operation); they have an operator that has risen from nothing to being significant on the basis of success and private capital and that has significant cash at its disposal to fund 50% of the ongoing costs; and the operator has demonstrated that it can produce something significant from a damaged well.

This project seems to be considerably de-risked now compared to the situation pre-farmout. The SP movement reflects that. 

You can't kick yourself for not having loaded up with more at the lower prices - the risk profile was different then. I did all of my loading up AFTER they announced the proposal to farm out and more than half of that AFTER they announced the new partner. Before they decided the farm out, the risk looked far too great. I could have paid less, but the risk was then too great for me.

So new investors should still be attracted. They might not make the same multiples but they will be buying into a considerably de-risked investment. There could be many waiting to see Kennedy replicated in Weston and/or waiting to see what Hilcorp can do with something designed by them from the outset.


----------



## condog

Any doubters need only take a look at the JVP's graphs for the last 4 months. AUT is up 400% in 4.5 months....id imagine ADI and EKA are very similar....but have not checked...I posted the AUT one in the AUt thread so any doubters can go check.....

Time to buy mor IMO...im looking, for a temporary weakness to get in.

eosteon - they will still get great multiples, as its only just beginning...just not the same as you say..

Hey Rambling from seeking alpha today

 Chesapeake Energy - chasing eagleford acerage...theres ya dinner date..



> In the Bossier, we have 180,000 net acres and in Eagle Ford, we are now up to 150,000 net acres and hope to have 300,000 to 400,000 net acres before it’s all said and done.




http://seekingalpha.com/article/189...-corporation-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript
Disc no responsibility for external links by me or asf dYOr


----------



## Ramblin Round

Oh yeah I forgot about them. They've always been active around here. Thanks mate. This information really helps when it comes down to knowing how many companies are out to buy up land.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I just checked my ADIHF holdings and I am very pleased. Methinks it might be time to acquire more shares. Looks like others are thinking the same way since the price went up both yesterday and today.


----------



## estseon

News release.

Easley about to kick off lateral.

Weston completed successfully, plugs drilled out, now cleaning up.

No mention of blockages, ruptures, lost equipment etc. Just waiting on flow figures.

Speculation- because ADI previously stated (28 Jan) that we could expect to extrapolate flows from Kennedy results, they might be bound to issue a caution if they would expect materially less from Weston. That could mean 1,400bpd + 6mmcfgpd.


----------



## rock86

Announcement out, 

Positive announcement, Weston fraccing completed *successfully* and Easley formation were as expected.

Everything going to planned, finally


----------



## Miner

Folks

ADI released good news. Share price jumped but not so much aligning with the good news .

I reviewed Hartley's report again.

ADI SP has now exceeded the target price  and valuation Hartley predicted (which appeared to be ambitiouns on 1 Feb  and ADI has exceeded that).

Reading the thread postings it appear that we are hoping the SP could be much hihger. 

Under the circumstances what the experts say ? I understand one can not predict price which is not allowed in ASF code of conduct. But could some inference charting be provided?

Attaced the Hartley Report for those who always asked for it.

Happy Investing


----------



## Agentm

hey miner 

there is zero negative in the announcement

the weston well is flowing to sales. and to see a chalks well flowing is very positive..

i am sure the flow rates will come through as announced by the jvp.

easley drilling away nicely in the lateral


----------



## estseon

They didn't say very much but they did say "which was in line with expectations". It could mean anything from 'comparable to the other wells drilled' to 'it fits well with our model of the geology of this field'. Or it could mean that this is all that the operator will let us say about it at the present.


----------



## jetblack

estseon said:


> They didn't say very much but they did say "which was in line with expectations". It could mean anything from 'comparable to the other wells drilled' to 'it fits well with our model of the geology of this field'. Or it could mean that this is all that the operator will let us say about it at the present.




estseon, I'm not picking on you, just using your quote cause it was handy.

IMO and the price action today supported my thinking, was that todays announcement was the get set, 

They cant hold back the Ip's, the info will be passed on. 

If I'm wrong then , well I'm wrong.


DYOR


----------



## estseon

No probs.

The production gas and condensate is flowing to sales - they said that in the news release.

Some time back, EME failed to disclose production on Block A. Details have to be returned to RRC and access to the details is unrestricted. I had to write to the Company's brokers and point out that they were creating a disorderly market. Anyone knowing how to access the information on the public website would have an information advantage.

The same will apply to Kennedy, Weston, Easley and any other well drilled. From the moment that it starts producing, it is just a matter of time until the information becomes accessible. That is, assuming that the operator does not default on its obligations.

Management who leave their shareholders to search out important performance information from public records win no acclaim from such. The information will have to be released, it is just a question of when.


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## condog

Esteon

Thats my understaning, they are required by both TRCC and ASIc to release information in timely and full disclosure, which allows them to not publish till stabilised, but once stabilised, rules require in both continents full disclosure and reporting.

Its a dangerous game with both TRCC and the toothless tiger ASIC to hold back...

Time will tell, but investors tapping on their door for full disclosure will prompt pretty quick and full disclosure....


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## Ramblin Round

This flow of information (or limited lack therof) is to be expected and somewhat predictible at this point in the game. Now that things are heating up for the Eagleford play, folks are clamming up as if it will help negotiate acreages and joint ventures/rig leasing/etc. So many companies are trying to get in right now it's not even funny.

Actually it _is _pretty funny........ that all this time some guys in Australia started talking about it on a forum back in 2006 and nobody believed them.  :thankyou:


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## estseon

I don't get it.

Rhetorical question.

Try to keep it a secret from whom?

The oil companies and the service companies will know what's happening.

The stock analysts in the US O&G sector know what's happening.

The landowners must know what's happening.

TRRC knows what's happening.

Judging by the reporting on some of the flaring, the man on the moon knows what is happening.

Is there actually anybody in Texas (having any potential financial interest) who does not know what is happening?

If they delay reporting flow rates they are bound to create a disorderly market


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## Ramblin Round

Yes you and I know that, but that's the way it goes around here. Sometimes I really do think it comes down to just trying to dumb down the landowners for cheap leases. Everyone "in the know" knows how well these shale plays are and has been going on successfully for years. All the companies know too so why BS each other.


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## condog

The other thing to get excited about is not only have we got more wells commencing but they are bigger. Keenedy only got 8 of its 14 stages flowing, Easily is 4000ft with 14 stages, but Ranch Grande is from memory 5700ft+ in the horizontal with around 20 stages... so thats presumably up around 40% bigger , with all other factors beeing equal..., but hopefully around double the output of kennedy.

Now i might be getting a bit too excited here and ahead of myself, but in the bakken they have most horizntals doing 26 stages now and some attempting 32 stage fracs.... hopefully in the near future ours will be pushing 7000ft using similar engeneering and with each well we will be seeing double to tripple the Kennedy flows, for a not too dis-similar expense and time line. Im not sure on the limitations from one shale to the other, but it was less then 12 months ago they where excited about 5- stage fracs in the bakken. 

Its a bit simplistic and makes it all sound a bit easy, but im very excited by the near term prospects. And with hilcorp on board one can only imagine our fracs will get a lot bigger a lot faster then most. 


With a climbing well count , growing flow rates and compounded by increaseing productivity from each new well.....you can work the rest out.


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## estseon

The different lengths for the new wells might be so that Hilcorp can compare (at their own cost) the relative costs and benefits of the longer completions.

Looking back at the reporting of Kennedy, They started it flowing at 01.00 on Thursday (US CT) and had an initial production rate at 07.00 on the Saturday.

Weston was reported at ASX open last night. So maybe they started flowing it Thursday morning, as before (17.00 US CT = 10.00 Aus time the following day). This means that an announcement on Monday is possible.

They might have reported Friday open because they had said 14 days from 4th February.

All conjecture - we'll find out Monday. Have a good weekend.


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## condog

I know its only speculation till monday, but both the empyrian and asx JVP's announcments stated Weston was in line with expectations. 

The only clear expectations Im aware of come from the ADI investor presentation from late 2009. Which indicated The hayensville shale had averages of 18mmcfgpd  equivelents....Thats $3-5M p.a. for AUT and $1.5M - $2.5M p.a. for EKa and ADI... 

It appears some of the calcs in that presentation where made on that average...so if thats the expectation they where in line with then...we can expect a great result hopefully on monday.

The other was what eosteon presnented a few posts ago "Speculation- because ADI previously stated (28 Jan) that we could expect to extrapolate flows from Kennedy results, they might be bound to issue a caution if they would expect materially less from Weston. That could mean 1,400bpd + 6mmcfgpd. " Still around the same figures, slightly higher.... at $4-6M for AUt and 2-4M for ADI, AEK

All in all seems to indicate all JVP's rediculously undervalued based on anticipated and possible near term results. Not a lot of value has been placed on any future earnings. Withsome other asx Eagleford explorers running at 17+ PE....we may see a major re-rating upon bankability very soon.

From a speculative funnymentalist view all three JVP's would in my amatuer opinion, be less then 50% of thier calculated value if Weston is in the range discussed. If Easily then comes online on the back of it with better figures again....then it could possibly add that much again at a minimum....

So sp based on postive very good  weston - i speculate IMO (DYOR) ADI 46c +, AUT 80c +, EKA 25c+

Based on very good Easely and Weston i speculate IMO (DYOR) ADI 69c +, AUT 1.20c +, EKA 39c+

The above rough calcs are amatuer opinion only. DYOR and seek expert advice. This is extremely high risk. Currency and volatile commodity prices may massively alter results.

Depending on the reason AZZ is halted at present may have our 3 JVP's as the shining starts of the Eagleford on the ASX.

Disc - i own AUT, DYOR


----------



## condog

More good news with this amazingly aggressive acquisition news out today by Chesapeake.... this is a fast development given the previous post was only announced two days ago..



> Chesapeake now has six plays after the addition of Eagle Ford and Bossier. It has leased 600,000 acres with an additional target of 400,000 acres.


----------



## WRONG'UN

The overnight surge in the oil price won't do any harm, either - liquids make up nominally 80% of the value of the product (ref ADI AGM Report 25/11/09), so a sulking gas price is not an issue at this time.


----------



## WRONG'UN

Further to the above, and to Agentm's post #4714 of 18 Feb, I have attempted to assess the "oil aspect".

The attached sheet comprises three sections:
1. To check that I am reading ADI's Slide 15 correctly.
2. To determine the oil and gas prices that ADI have used in arriving at an gas/oil conversion factor of 10,000 cubic feet of gas = 1 barrel of oil.
3. To determine the effect of the current gas and oil prices on the 130BCFe deterministic estimate, and on the 5.5 BCFe recovery per well, which is affected in the same ratio.

There are some obvious conclusions, but the main one is that the high liquid content of the product, along with a disproportionately increased oil price, increases the 130 BCFe deterministic estimate by 39% to 181 BCFe, and the 5.5 BCFe recovery per well to 7.6 BCFe. This will fluctuate, of course, but that's how it seems at the moment.

The above takes no account of the other value adding enhancements described by Agentm.

Feedback welcomed.


----------



## estseon

wrong'un

The oil/gas conversion is generally done on the basis of BTUs and we don't know that but, for this type of calculation, 5,700 cfg = 1 bbl might give a closer answer.

These are long life wells, which means that the recoverable reserves need to be heavily discounted for time. That can be done by applying a much lower price. Maybe $15 - $20 for the condensate (suggestions?) and 10% of that for the gas (suggestions?).

Rambling

There's another thing about Hilcorp scrabbling for acreage that I don't really get. Between Sugarloaf and Longhorn they might drill (as discussed) 500 wells before they run out of land. That's years of drilling. In the meantime, if they are paying, say, $500/acre pa, that would be $50k per potential well site pa for potential future benefits. Enough land for 100 wells for drilling after S/L & Longhorn would cost them $5m pa, assuming that the landowners would be happy with just the rents for years and years.


----------



## condog

estseon said:


> There's another thing about Hilcorp scrabbling for acreage that I don't really get. Between Sugarloaf and Longhorn they might drill (as discussed) 500 wells before they run out of land. That's years of drilling. In the meantime, if they are paying, say, $500/acre pa, that would be $50k per potential well site pa for potential future benefits. Enough land for 100 wells for drilling after S/L & Longhorn would cost them $5m pa, assuming that the landowners would be happy with just the rents for years and years.




Thats less then one good well to pay the enitre acerage leases per annum, so its no big shakes. While $5m p.a. seems a lot , with the given likely upside and well counts you speak of, its an absolute pitence to pay such rentals. Sure intially right now it seems a lot for AUT, ADI EKA, but in hilcorp terms its peanuts. And with the long term upside that it can secure its a upside downside gamble that makes very good economic sense. by 2011, this will seem so cheap it wasnt funny.

All opinion of course.


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## WRONG'UN

Hi Estseon

I assume that a gas/oil conversion rate of 5,700 cfg to 1 barrel of oil assumes that the BTU values of each are equivalent - that's fine, we are comparing heat with heat, and 1 barrel of oil has presumably the same number of BTUs as 5,700 cubic feet of gas. The conversion rate will be essentially fixed, subject to variations in the quality and makeup of the products.  
But if we are comparing dollars values, and valuing a mixed resource, don't we need to convert using the prices? And because the ratio of gas price to oil price fluctuates, so should the gas/oil conversion rate? At current prices the dollar conversion rate is 15,962 cfg to 1 barrel of oil - ie. 1 barrel of oil is worth the same number of dollars as 15,962 cubic feet of gas.  

When you talk about "heavily discounted for time", I assume you are referring to the discounted NPV of the future production. Of course this depends on the time profile of the production - I assume it will climb to a peak after x years, and then taper off. Without knowing what the shape of the curve is, we can't work out the NPV - but, very roughly, if the production each year is assumed to be equal, over a 10 year field life, and the discount rate is 10%, then the discount factor is about 0.61 = an oil price of about $48 using your discounted price approach. The figures for a 20 year production life are 0.42 and $34 respectively. My figures are slightly higher than your $15 - $20, but there they are, for comparison - you may possibly have better information to work on.

Sorry, I'm not involved in the energy sector, I'm a civil engineer - just questioning assumptions, as engineers do. Please tell me if I'm out of my depth, and I shall withdraw gracefully and enjoy the ride!

Cheers, Wrong'un


----------



## sam76

WRONG'UN said:


> Further to the above, and to Agentm's post #4714 of 18 Feb, I have attempted to assess the "oil aspect".
> 
> The attached sheet comprises three sections:
> 1. To check that I am reading ADI's Slide 15 correctly.
> 2. To determine the oil and gas prices that ADI have used in arriving at an gas/oil conversion factor of 10,000 cubic feet of gas = 1 barrel of oil.
> 3. To determine the effect of the current gas and oil prices on the 130BCFe deterministic estimate, and on the 5.5 BCFe recovery per well, which is affected in the same ratio.
> 
> There are some obvious conclusions, but the main one is that the high liquid content of the product, along with a disproportionately increased oil price, increases the 130 BCFe deterministic estimate by 39% to 181 BCFe, and the 5.5 BCFe recovery per well to 7.6 BCFe. This will fluctuate, of course, but that's how it seems at the moment.
> 
> The above takes no account of the other value adding enhancements described by Agentm.
> 
> Feedback welcomed.




Hey wrong un, looks impressive mate but i can't decipher is for nuts!!!!!

Do you have a $ value for your scenarios?

cheers big ears!


----------



## WRONG'UN

Hi Sam76
The sheet that I posted shows ADI's 130BCFe as having an in-situ value of $650m, or $4.42 per share, on the  basis of gas and oil prices of $5 and $50 respectively.
Allowing for the current prices of $5 and $80 increases the value to $908m, or $6.18 per share - 39% more.
These values have to be discounted to allow for risks, the productive life of the field, the time value of money, costs, tax etc..., - beyond me at this stage, but even a 90% discounting on the current figure still leaves us at 62cents. And there is always the chance that the field will be better than expected, with a positive impact on the valuation.
Sorry I can't be more explicit - all I was really trying to show was the effect of an increase in the oil price, relative to the gas price, and raising the question as to whether this was being allowed for by those involved in valuing the stock.
Hartleys have risked valuations ranging from 27cps to 37cps, and unrisked valuations from 180cps to 186.2cps. I am not sure whether they have allowed for the "oil effect" or not.
Whatever, more will be revealed with the passage of time, and the consequent reduction in the uncertainty. 
Good luck to all holders.
Cheers, Wrong'un.


----------



## estseon

Hi wrong'un.

Hyperbolic decay profile like most other things in nature.

Think of the pressure gradient from the surface discontinuity into the rock.

I think that you will find data for Kunde 1 (Burlington/COP 1st well on Block A) in one of the ADI/AUT (probably) presentations. Trouble is, COP can't leave anything alone. They did a workover and so the graph starts again. 

We're looking at post royalties (say 29%) and then expenses (not too much) then tax (how could you forget - the sleeping partner).

Total production will take a different profile because of new drilling.

I think that cash revenues are more important at the present time. Those and success replication.


----------



## cicak_kupang

I cant wait to see what the forward drilling programme will look like for the JVP's, once this current  drilling programme is over. Some how i dont think they will be packing up and going home.....


----------



## Agentm

cicak_kupang

exxon mobil are very keen on the acreages.

looking in the counties of mcmullen and lasalle there are 3 and 2 permits respectively for the giant..


----------



## jetblack

Strong price today, compared to the other jvp's so far. 

Not trying to jump the gun as its early days yet. 

However, Agent M has made a few points which I believe supports more movement of ADI to where it is.

That they ADI have a good deal of money in the bank and extra acerage does not mean more share price, ADI dont have the burden they have the focus.


----------



## adobee

I have picked up more this morning equal to my profits todate .. getting on the cane express with the rest of the crowd before it leaves the station ..

Been very happy over last few weeks up about 87%  dont have a huge amount but now around 150k shares ..  hope we push strongly through 30 cent range soon ..


----------



## Agentm

this little historic shows what the advent of a series of very positive announcements have..

i agree the $5 mill in the bank for adi is a real positive, and not having any obligations of big spends on extra acreages has its advantages jetblack










adi said this in their last annual report..  imho it still is relevant to investors to consider how world events impacted on the shale plays and the oil prices, along with currency imbalances.. 

Dear Shareholder,

Around the time of our last AGM in November 2008,
the outlook for Adelphi, in common with most junior oil
exploration companies, was problematic. The oil price
had plummeted, Sugarloaf well results were inconclusive,
Wisteria -1 was a dry hole, our farm-in partners for
our newly acquired Indonesian exploration block had
defaulted on their commitments, and our cash reserves
had been decimated by the plunge in the Aussie dollar
and cost overruns. It was not a good time to be a junior
oil explorer in the midst of a global financial crisis!
As a result, your Board immediately put in place a
strategy for financial security; which initially involved
cutting off discretionary expenditure, secondly by
raising $1.6 million in new equity, and thirdly by selling
and farming out assets to reduce our forward exploration
commitments.

*These initiatives were successful and I am pleased to
report that Adelphi is now in a financially secure position
with approximately $6 million in cash, modest exploration
commitments and an active work program at Sugarloaf
with exciting upside potential.
*
50% of Adelphi’s interest in the Sugarloaf AMI has
been farmed out to Hilcorp – a significant US based
exploration and production company. In return,
Adelphi will be free carried through a work program
comprising up to three recompletions and/or
multi-stage fracture stimulations of existing wells, and
up to three new horizontal wells.

Adelphi’s 8.5% working interest in Yemen Block 7 has
been sold for a consideration of US$4 million.

Adelphi’s 8.5% working interest in Yemen Block 74 is
in the process of being sold. Discussions with several
companies are advanced


----------



## Lucky_Country

Hey AgentM just wondering wether you know how the farmin actually works ?

Does Hillcorp get its 50% share on each well after they have completed that well or do they have to wait until all wells are complete and flowing then they get the percentage ?

Be nice if the jvp keep the revenues pre farmout until the completion of all wells !!

Cheers


----------



## Agentm

adi hold firm 20% on the undeveloped acreages

hilcorp will only achieve their farm in on the basis they contribute. 

say if hilcorp were not impressed with 3000 bopd and 12 mmcfpd on easley and decided to walk. lol ... which would absolute madness .. hilcorp would hold their interest on that well and any wells they completed as part of the farm in deal, and adi would hold their respective farm in value for those wells.. all other regions would remain 20%


----------



## Lucky_Country

I would be amazed if Kennedy or Easley produced 3000 bopd !!

Kennedy even on the initial flow rates was at the top end of my calculations.

AgentM does this mean that ADI now only have 10% of Kennedy and Hillcorp now has its farmin percentage ?


----------



## rock86

New high's again today.......... someone has to know something about these results Over on HC someone was saying something about Yemen block 74 being sold, anyone got any info on this????


----------



## Agentm

rock

yemen has always been up for sale.. it was at pretty advanced stages according to them in their last annual report..

where its at now would be entirely speculation


----------



## prawn_86

Some very good technical knowledge and discussion happening in this thread. Still got some way back up to all time highs, but well done to those holders who kept the faith.


----------



## prgudula

24 February 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
Weston #1H – Initial Production Rate
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations
at the Weston #1H well.
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful
fracture stimulation of 3,000’ of horizontal section, the Weston #1H well continues to clean up
to sales. The average production rate over the first five days was 5.68 million cubic feet of
gas per day (“mmscf/d”) and 414 bbls of condensate (“bcpd”) per day. Flow back of the
fracture fluids started at rates of 1,000 bbls of water per day (“bwpd”), decreasing to 500
bwpd over the same period.
This initial production rate corresponds to an equivalent gas rate of 10.65 mmscfe/d on a 12:1
conversion ratio and before providing for any uplift associated with high calorific gas.
Whilst these initial rates are encouraging and continue to further demonstrate the viability of
the field, the following points should be noted:
• This is an initial production rate during clean up and may not be indicative of a short
or long term production profile.
• The well still has considerable fluids to recover from the fracture stimulation operations.
• The well is currently producing through the 7" production casing. A smaller diameter
production tubing string will be installed in due course which should allow higher
production rates.
• Geological factors have generated the dry gas, condensate rich gas or oil reservoirs
observed to date across the trend. These same influences will vary the gas to
condensate ratio observed across the Sugarloaf acreage. The Weston results broadly
conform to expectation but a population of wells within the area will better define
these variations.
• The gas produced to date from the field has had a high calorific value and has
commanded a 25% uplift on dry gas pricing.
As further results become available from the ongoing work program across the Sugarloaf AMI,
Adelphi will in due course move away from reporting an ‘Initial Production Rate’ to reporting
the average rate over the initial 30 days of production. This approach has greater technical
validity and provides a sound basis from which to commence the extrapolation of decline
curves as more production data is acquired.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.
Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf AMI, and their respective pre-farm-out working
interests are:
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited 20.0%
Eureka Energy Limited 12.5%


----------



## jetblack

As it is , like the previous announcement. 

No fan fair tell it like it is, but I bet they were glowing inside.

Weston, a chalk play , successful 3000 ft frac. 25% increase on quality gas.

They would have to take that well into the shale, at some stage, they have the quality people to it.


This is getting a nice build for Easley.


----------



## jancha

adobee said:


> I have picked up more this morning equal to my profits todate .. getting on the cane express with the rest of the crowd before it leaves the station ..
> 
> Been very happy over last few weeks up about 87%  dont have a huge amount but now around 150k shares ..  hope we push strongly through 30 cent range soon ..




From a High of 38c down to a low of 30c.
The only reason i can justify the downturn is adobee's back on the scene or am i missing something here with the last announcement?


----------



## adobee

jancha said:


> From a High of 38c down to a low of 30c.
> The only reason i can justify the downturn is adobee's back on the scene or am i missing something here with the last announcement?




haha i was doing well for about six hours...  Nah.. I have been holding this since 17c.. got more at 31c the other day .. 

I think it will bounce back tomorrow.. post announcment I think there may have been a few who bought up when they saw the low volume available it was stacked 900k buy to 200k sell at one stage and jumped in which pushed it up.. on the hope it would run.. when it didnt they needed to get out before close of trade bring it back down.. could be wrong but thats how i see it ..

I am holding on and expect to see steady rise as more information comes out and broker updates increase there targets ..


----------



## basilio

Yipee!! I'm back to where I started with ADI.

Originally jumped in at 30c I think Nov 2008 when there was a drill that was going to be the goods....

Anyway 15 months later  it all looks so much better.  Thank you to Agentum in particular who has kept a very strong presence in this forum with his ongoing analysis. I believe it has kept a number of us involved when other factors would have  suggested cutting our losses. Really liked your graph  of a couple of days ago showing the progress from 6c to 30c. (It would have been a courageous decision to keep buying at 6 cents....)

Now if only a  few other sick puppies could sit up and bark..

Cheers


----------



## Miner

ADI shot up 38 cents today and came down to 31 cents. Still a handsome gain so soon .

But where are our favourite ADI contributors or gurus like Agentm and otehrs  in this thread today ? 

Agentm you must be enjoying your  well deserved bottle of champagane after working so hard to educate a bunch of follks on the benefits of ADI with  real technical stuff  assisted by few  others. I did not see your postings at all since morning - very unusual and hope you  are well.

Condog - you were missing as well in ADI thread today so far.

Tomorrow will be an exciting day.

Since all three are closely related ADI, EKA and AUT. I did not understand when ADI rose up why EKA and AUT did not follow the trend. Technically they share most of the holdings of success. 

Disclaimer : I do hold ADI


----------



## condog

Nice to be missed.

Yes good day for ADI. Might be the other twos turns soon. 

The market misread the info for most the morning session , then the traders moved in just as the ADI crew realised with agents help that they mis read it.

The AUT crew largely dont monitor agent and others so missed the analysis. 

Looking very good.

What many forgot was those weston figures should clean up beetter. But more importantly is when they are on the production tubing. That should bring a lot more condensate. Likewise for Kennedy.


----------



## estseon

Lucky_Country - I think that Agent was saying that Easley could be expected to produce 3,000 bpd. That is based on a scaling up of Kennedy, as ADI said we could. The other reference to Kennedy might have been a slip of the keyboard.

Miner - looking at ADI volume and price movements, there could have been some 'funny trading' in ADI, which might explain why AUT and EKA were more subdued. The AUT price now seems to be out of line (haven't checked EKA - don't follow it) compared to market valuation against ADI for the last 6 months or so. There has been minor dilution through exercise of options there.

We'll be looking at higher if the new wells come out at 3,000bpd apiece, 'funny trading' or no.


----------



## jancha

condog said:


> Nice to be missed.
> 
> Yes good day for ADI. Might be the other twos turns soon.
> 
> The market misread the info for most the morning session , then the traders moved in just as the ADI crew realised with agents help that they mis read it.
> 
> The AUT crew largely dont monitor agent and others so missed the analysis.
> 
> Looking very good.
> 
> What many forgot was those weston figures should clean up beetter. But more importantly is when they are on the production tubing. That should bring a lot more condensate. Likewise for Kennedy.




Hang on Condog
How is a good day for Adi when it finished half cent lower on close than yesterday?
Not particularly worried over it as it would have only been profit takers & will head back north but to say it was a good & the likes of Eka & Aut turn will come? Dont follow.


----------



## AG1979

I think for my first post i would like to thank AgentM, he has change avatars as often as i have had hot dinners, but he knows what is going on, please don't ever be silent. ADI has been a ride, i sold when i needed to get my money back... not quiet all, i purchased again because i believe in the story. ADI is almost a religion, just have faith brother! For all holders lets watch this one go sky high!


----------



## condog

jancha said:


> Hang on Condog
> How is a good day for Adi when it finished half cent lower on close than yesterday?
> Not particularly worried over it as it would have only been profit takers & will head back north but to say it was a good & the likes of Eka & Aut turn will come? Dont follow.




New high on huge volumes=  vote of confidence - getting noticed. didnt give back much of massive gains. good results out....


----------



## Ramblin Round

The Friedrichs rig has been disassembled and looks ready to frac. Halliburton only has two frac teams in the South region so I'm told so it's a wait and see scenario. They're out lining the tank today.

Anybody have info on the Freidrichs ? It's a Pioneer leased location Region 2 Dewitt Co. .


----------



## Miner

AG1979 said:


> I think for my first post i would like to thank AgentM, he has change avatars as often as i have had hot dinners, but he knows what is going on, please don't ever be silent. ADI has been a ride, i sold when i needed to get my money back... not quiet all, i purchased again because i believe in the story. ADI is almost a religion, just have faith brother! For all holders lets watch this one go sky high!




Did you send cut from your profit by selling ADI to Agent M and Joe .

I am sure they will be posting more goodies once commissions arrive on profits


----------



## estseon

Just an observation drawn from one of Agent's excellent maps:

Easley is ENE of Kennedy following the trend.

Morgan and Rancho are either side of Kowalik, which is about 2/3rds of a mile north of Kennedy.

Supposedly, those 3 are nearer the oil richer area of the trend. When Kowalik first flowed, the ratio was over 320bbls/1mmcfg., Then they did a chemical wash....

When Kennedy first flowed the ratio was 250bbls/1mmcfg. After the recent frac, it flowed 258bbls/1mmcfg.

I'm not suggesting that the IP flows, especially in 2008, can be relied upon to indicate ratios but a higher ratio for Kowalik/Morgan/Rancho would not be a surprise.


----------



## Agentm

AG1979 said:


> I think for my first post i would like to thank AgentM, he has change avatars as often as i have had hot dinners, but he knows what is going on, please don't ever be silent. ADI has been a ride, i sold when i needed to get my money back... not quiet all, i purchased again because i believe in the story. ADI is almost a religion, just have faith brother! For all holders lets watch this one go sky high!




thanks ag

didnt realise the avatar change was such a big deal

the underlying sentiment in the region and in the jvp is for progression, and i see upside in this one with that progression, as for the others in the region and in the jvp?? well thats for others to decide upon.. i only invest where i understand the story and know it can be achieved..

“As I grow older I pay less attention to what men say,” said industrialist Andrew Carnegie (1835 - 1919). “I just watch what they do.”


imho when you walk the talk it not only means something it has value..


----------



## jetblack

Agentm said:


> the underlying sentiment in the region and in the jvp is for progression, and i see upside in this one with that progression, as for the others in the region and in the jvp?? well thats for others to decide upon.. i only invest where i understand the story and know it can be achieved..
> 
> imho when you walk the talk it not only means something it has value..




I agree with the comments about the other jvp's, however, I think you have to keep an open mind, especailly with the latest announcement from AUT.
Spouce buys more, nothing unusual its all above board.

All in all a day to be expected, test of patience.


Btw I also walk the walk.


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> thanks ag
> 
> didnt realise the avatar change was such a big deal
> 
> the underlying sentiment in the region and in the jvp is for progression, and i see upside in this one with that progression, as for the others in the region and in the jvp?? well thats for others to decide upon.. i only invest where i understand the story and know it can be achieved..
> 
> “As I grow older I pay less attention to what men say,” said industrialist Andrew Carnegie (1835 - 1919). “I just watch what they do.”
> 
> 
> imho when you walk the talk it not only means something it has value..




Agent youve been the most grounded sole in this thread since day dot...the price goes up and suddenly you start talking random jibbba jabba.... perhaps youve toasted a little too much sparly this week.  Enjoy mate and thanks for your tireless efforts.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Another good report from Adelphi. Sounds like the Weston is right on track setting the stage for a good average of all other wells. 

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil... 2010 - Weston 1H Initial Production Rate.pdf


----------



## Miner

Ramblin Round said:


> Another good report from Adelphi. Sounds like the Weston is right on track setting the stage for a good average of all other wells.
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil... 2010 - Weston 1H Initial Production Rate.pdf




Thanks for the report

Good report but market received it with 6.25% drop in price until now 9.39 AM WST so far today .

Thursday 25 Feb  ADI Closed  -1.54%  with a volume  543,145 shares transaction.

Wednesday  24 Feb  ADI Closed -1.52% with a volume of 1,843,000 shares transaction

Tuesday 23 Feb ADI clsoed +13.79 % with a volume of 918,700 shares transaction and before days it was all up and up making all happy.


Is the reversal of trend telling us something  but reading reports published by the company and information exchanged in the forum it is unlikely to see any imminent danger. 

Any expert comments please confused:


----------



## Agentm

Miner said:


> Thanks for the report
> 
> Good report but market received it with 6.25% drop in price until now 9.39 AM WST so far today .
> 
> Thursday 25 Feb  ADI Closed  -1.54%  with a volume  543,145 shares transaction.
> 
> Wednesday  24 Feb  ADI Closed -1.52% with a volume of 1,843,000 shares transaction
> 
> Tuesday 23 Feb ADI clsoed +13.79 % with a volume of 918,700 shares transaction and before days it was all up and up making all happy.
> 
> 
> Is the reversal of trend telling us something  but reading reports published by the company and information exchanged in the forum it is unlikely to see any imminent danger.
> 
> Any expert comments please confused:




it was all planned for and well executed imho


i know adi acreages are one county away from ramblings acreages in de witt, but there they have had plenty of good wells..

looking forward to the next announcements from the jvp. i am certain the next ones will be very enlightening. there is no doubt in my mind that the operator is keen to get progressing on the acreages, and there is every likelihood the weston and kennedy wells will clean up and continue to hit their strides.

the recent clear out by the traders on the adi share is just a buying opportunity for those wanting to average down or get in.. volumes have been available which is great.. and good to see such a well executed buy on the rumour sell on the news scenario played out 

its all part of what these small caps will inevitably attract, although i wonder how the recent announcement of more staggered news drops will determine if any repeat is going to happen with easley and morgan and rancho grande..plus we have to agree that there must be more news on weston and kennedy still to come

interesting days but the sp fluctuations are part of the plan and will swing less as the exit slows down..

all imho and dyor..


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> it was all planned for and well executed imho
> 
> 
> i know adi acreages are one county away from ramblings acreages in de witt, but there they have had plenty of good wells..
> 
> looking forward to the next announcements from the jvp. i am certain the next ones will be very enlightening. there is no doubt in my mind that the operator is keen to get progressing on the acreages, and there is every likelihood the weston and kennedy wells will clean up and continue to hit their strides.
> 
> the recent clear out by the traders on the adi share is just a buying opportunity for those wanting to average down or get in.. volumes have been available which is great.. and good to see such a well executed buy on the rumour sell on the news scenario played out
> 
> its all part of what these small caps will inevitably attract, although i wonder how the recent announcement of more staggered news drops will determine if any repeat is going to happen with easley and morgan and rancho grande..plus we have to agree that there must be more news on weston and kennedy still to come
> 
> interesting days but the sp fluctuations are part of the plan and will swing less as the exit slows down..
> 
> all imho and dyor..




Thanks Agentm for the update.

I can now continue my sleep towards a good long weekend in WA (market will be awake on Monday however)


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> it was all planned for and well executed imho
> 
> 
> i know adi acreages are one county away from ramblings acreages in de witt, but there they have had plenty of good wells..
> 
> looking forward to the next announcements from the jvp. i am certain the next ones will be very enlightening. there is no doubt in my mind that the operator is keen to get progressing on the acreages, and there is every likelihood the weston and kennedy wells will clean up and continue to hit their strides.
> 
> the recent clear out by the traders on the adi share is just a buying opportunity for those wanting to average down or get in.. volumes have been available which is great.. and good to see such a well executed buy on the rumour sell on the news scenario played out
> 
> its all part of what these small caps will inevitably attract, although i wonder how the recent announcement of more staggered news drops will determine if any repeat is going to happen with easley and morgan and rancho grande..plus we have to agree that there must be more news on weston and kennedy still to come
> 
> interesting days but the sp fluctuations are part of the plan and will swing less as the exit slows down..
> 
> all imho and dyor..




Hi Agentm.
In your opinion do you think that Hilcorp have improved on their drilling technique & that their progression with easley is moving along more smoothly than prior wells in the area?


----------



## Agentm

i wouldnt know

i expect the way to go with wells drilled in the formation is not to be underbalanced, and all operators are logging very rapid completions. 

how easley is going is only known by the jvp partners and little news on that wells progress is being released.

no one can really comment on that.  when they announce TD then you can calculate the time it takes..


----------



## Lucky_Country

Easley, Morgan and Rancho wow these are company making wells !!!

Its been a long road for us longterm holders but what has really kept me interseted in this company is the honesty and proffesionalism of its management.

No spruiking making the hard decisions and making good choices with asset sales and farmdowns all are hard to make but we are now seeing the rewards.

Along with the great information shared on these forums by those whom research alot more than most its would have been a bigger risk to sell than to hold.

ADI is in strong financial position free drilling in an area many would love to have entered.

The signs are very very positive.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> Easley, Morgan and Rancho wow these are company making wells !!!
> 
> Its been a long road for us longterm holders but what has really kept me interseted in this company is the honesty and proffesionalism of its management.
> 
> No spruiking making the hard decisions and making good choices with asset sales and farmdowns all are hard to make but we are now seeing the rewards.
> 
> Along with the great information shared on these forums by those whom research alot more than most its would have been a bigger risk to sell than to hold.
> 
> ADI is in strong financial position free drilling in an area many would love to have entered.
> 
> The signs are very very positive.




i am starting to get a tad excited Lucky_Country

seeing the spud of the second well at morgan demonstrates 2 rigs are on our acreages.

hilcorp have taken things to a new level. no only taking over as operator but willing to go full tilt right now with 2 rigs.

i expect the jvp will announce the news in the near term, and i look forward to the market reaction myself..

news just gets better by the week..

no one is talking much about the 3 free carried wells i know, but with 2 rigs drilling simultaneously, i think its a topic that will be hard to ignore..

imho its also important to not forget kennedy and weston also, kennedy in the eagleford and weston in the chalks.. 2 zones are producing now..


----------



## jetblack

Not only the news getting better, but the price action on friday had a nice solid close.

The stocks being bought into, as other posters have noticed, those thinking of pushing the stock down i think are having second thoughts.

Agent M , I briefly skimmed the Swift preso, you mentioned on another site.

They talking expected prod. from one well 6-10mmcfe/d
4-7 bcfe per well. (running from memory on these figs)

Sort of thinking they are actually giving the lower end of possibilities the Eaglford has to deliver.

Rephrase that last sentence: I am now believing that these figures the companys in the Eagleford are mentioning are at the lower end of the targets, but are  still very impressive. I feel that know they can deliver more.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Agentm said:


> i am starting to get a tad excited Lucky_Country
> 
> seeing the spud of the second well at morgan demonstrates 2 rigs are on our acreages.
> 
> hilcorp have taken things to a new level. no only taking over as operator but willing to go full tilt right now with 2 rigs.
> 
> i expect the jvp will announce the news in the near term, and i look forward to the market reaction myself..
> 
> news just gets better by the week..
> 
> no one is talking much about the 3 free carried wells i know, but with 2 rigs drilling simultaneously, i think its a topic that will be hard to ignore..
> 
> imho its also important to not forget kennedy and weston also, kennedy in the eagleford and weston in the chalks.. 2 zones are producing now..




Definately not alone in being excited about this stock.

I remember the days of ADI @ $1 Im even starting to think that with the current buying and suprising sellers that may soon run out we could easily venture into that region again with news from the 3 current well and the 3 soon to be drilled wells. (Easley already in action)

These new wells are what will really judge the jvp on and I for one am very very positive.


----------



## Agentm

new permit for conoco in live oak, plomero ranch 3H
obviously next to their first well drilled out there

conoco has drilled the eskew north well and is drilling the
F malik well now

conoco has only one rig drilling in live oak, the adi jvp
have 2 rigs in karnes county drilling

conoco has a second rig, a nabors f15 rig in dewitt county,
that rig finished the maraldo well and is now completing the
butler well

in karnes county

pioneer have have drilled the handy 1H well east of adi
acreages close to bordovsky and now drilling closer to our
acreages the chessnut 1 H

dan hughes finished the darlene 3H and is drilling the
KASPRZYK-JENDRUSCH UNIT a few miles north of the adi
kowalik well

eog have finished the lyssy unit 6 and is drilling the
lyssy unit 4 just a few miles north of the adi acreages and
a touch west of dan hughes..

eog have finished the harper 8 and are drilling the harper
4 now a few miles north of the conoco bordovsky

all imho and dyor


----------



## Lucky_Country

How rude of me I forgot to congratulate AgentM on his thrilling victory in this months tipping competition.

Well done AgentM mind you its been 4 years in the making the odds were in your favour LOL.


----------



## Agentm

Lucky_Country said:


> How rude of me I forgot to congratulate AgentM on his thrilling victory in this months tipping competition.
> 
> Well done AgentM mind you its been 4 years in the making the odds were in your favour LOL.




i have won it before Lucky_Country

primarily use the comp to see the % fluctuations.. but for the last 5 months i think its been worth following just as chance to win the comp.. its been in the green most months Lucky_Country..

chose it again this month also.  i think its a pity that wsywyg didnt win on his choice.. it had massive sp gains also.. but all three jvps were in the top 4 of the comp


----------



## Agentm

bp paid up to $4500 per acre to get into the shale with lewis energy

it obvious the eagleford story is yet to be believed here in australia, but imho the moves and the prices per acre are indicating the opposite for many heads of the oil giants.. its really transformed from an unheard of and disbelieved play 12 months back to an extremely sought after play right now..

zero news flow on the second rig from the jvp.. interesting indeed!


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> bp paid up to $4500 per acre to get into the shale with lewis energy
> 
> it obvious the eagleford story is yet to be believed here in australia, but imho the moves and the prices per acre are indicating the opposite for many heads of the oil giants.. its really transformed from an unheard of and disbelieved play 12 months back to an extremely sought after play right now..
> 
> zero news flow on the second rig from the jvp.. interesting indeed!




All good reading Agentm but why is zero news on the 2nd rig interesting?
Dont see how that has any bearing on anything.


----------



## WRONG'UN

Excerpt from ADI's 24 Feb report:

"As further results become available from the ongoing work program across the Sugarloaf AMI, Adelphi will in due course move away from reporting an ‘Initial Production Rate’ to reporting the average rate over the initial 30 days of production. This approach has greater technical validity and provides a sound basis from which to commence the extrapolation of decline curves as more production data is acquired."

Does this explain the "no news", or were you expecting something else, not related to flow rates?


----------



## condog

I assume hes referring to the rumour that hilcorp where bringing in a 2nd drilling rig to accellerate proceedings. Its the obvious next step. Several people have been commenting on it, but as yet there has been no confirmation.


----------



## Bigukraine

noticed this in the fraccing frikin etc thread agentm, condog etc thoughts ???

http://www.democracynow.org/2010/2/2...ety_of_natural


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> I assume hes referring to the rumour that hilcorp where bringing in a 2nd drilling rig to accellerate proceedings. Its the obvious next step. Several people have been commenting on it, but as yet there has been no confirmation.




i have it confirmed.. they are using a patterson top drill on morgan at the moment..

morgan is underway

hilcorp will drill 3 free carried wells for the jvp in the AMI.. 

easley is still drilling away,, so two rigs are  side by side going for the old sugarkane


bigukraine

load of hot air.. been following it a little..


----------



## majorca

Big ukraine , 
                 Apparently aload of hot air and aload of hot water. If you read the notes on the interview on the fraccing site link they show the people on national tv that they can light their own tap water! Maybe a bit of a pun from Agent on that . Could affect Adi further down the track, maybe sanctions put in place to bring fraccing in line with EPA guidlines?


----------



## Bigukraine

majorca said:


> Big ukraine ,
> Apparently aload of hot air and aload of hot water. If you read the notes on the interview on the fraccing site link they show the people on national tv that they can light their own tap water! Maybe a bit of a pun from Agent on that . Could affect Adi further down the track, maybe sanctions put in place to bring fraccing in line with EPA guidlines?




Looks like it could be a concern for the future and found this on the subject as well.....

GOOGLE   drilling tactic digs up controversy


----------



## majorca

Bigukraine, 
              had a read ...that is alarming. Do you think they ate the cows that chespeake killed ? Seriously though in reading that I can't help but wondering if the horror stories are from the infancy of the technology? Interesting to see the get out clause exxon negotiated before signing, they couldn't be 100% on a favourable outcome.


----------



## condog

Well spotted agent - parden the pun 

Whats the deal with morgan is it onsite or spudded. If they know its a patterson it must be on site at least .

Good find ta.


----------



## prgudula

Team & AgentM,

I have been enjoying the ride with ADI due to valuable information provided by AgentM. Thanks 

BTW, is there any co-relation with the price ADIHF traded in US and over here ADI?

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...sedLine&cmpto=ASX:ADI&cmptdms=1&q=PINK:ADIHF&


----------



## jancha

Bigukraine said:


> Looks like it could be a concern for the future and found this on the subject as well.....
> 
> GOOGLE   drilling tactic digs up controversy




Yeah interesting stuff Taxi Driver.
Hot Air Agentm? 
If congress is looking into it I say there'd be some merit in it.


----------



## Agentm

lol @ jancha

if i hear reports of cows exploding after drinking local water i will get detailed reports and let you know

congress imho has a few more pressing things to concern themselves over.. now that arnie the governator has no cash, having the 4th biggest economy on the planet on the ropes may need their serious attention now that sachs has screwed it for them..

cant see them worrying any texans right now.. 

lol





condog said:


> Well spotted agent - parden the pun
> 
> Whats the deal with morgan is it onsite or spudded. If they know its a patterson it must be on site at least .
> 
> Good find ta.




my texas friends tell me i am mistaken on the rig..

easley has the toprig on it!!  crazy that no one here picked it up.. you need to lift your game guys!!

morgan has another type of rig on it  a H&P rig no# 229


better post my agentm report on morgan for the interested investors

03/01/2010   08:00  texas time

morgan ran 9 5/8 casing to 6200 feet


btw morgan spud date was last friday 26th february 2010


----------



## prgudula

3 March 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on operations
within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Morgan #1H
Adelphi has been advised by the operator Hilcorp Energy that the second farm-in well within
the Sugarloaf AMI, the Morgan #1H well, was spudded on Friday, 26 February 2010 (US CST).
The well is located approximately 5 km North West of the Easley #1H well and is expected to
take approximately 6 weeks to drill to TD. The well design includes a vertical pilot hole prior to
drilling a horizontal section that will access both the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford horizons
following fracture stimulation.
Easley #1H
As at 0730 hrs on 2 March 2010 (US CST) the well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,535 ft
(MD) with approximately 2,800 ft of horizontal section now having been drilled within the
reservoir. Elevated gas readings have been observed since penetrating the reservoir.
Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H
Both wells continue to produce to sales in line with expectation. Production tubing has yet to
be installed in either well and further updates on production rates will be provided once this
has occurred and stable rates have been established.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.
Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf AMI, and their respective pre-farm-out working
interests are:
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited 20.0%
Eureka Energy Limited 12.5%


----------



## jancha

Yeah Agentm wasn't really referring to cows exploding more along the line of the water basins being polluted with diesel used in hydraulic fraccing.
Cows exploding sounds a bit far fetched but the chemicals they use in drilling is. Interesting news clip on Democracynow.


----------



## nioka

prgudula;537372 said:
			
		

> The pink sheet price seems to run parallel with the Aus price. The last pink sheet price at todays exchange rate equals AUD$.3145.


----------



## nioka

jancha said:


> Yeah Agentm wasn't really referring to cows exploding more along the line of the water basins being polluted with diesel used in hydraulic fraccing.
> Cows exploding sounds a bit far fetched but the chemicals they use in drilling is. Interesting news clip on Democracynow.






Cracking Down on Fracking
Mike Markham of Colorado has an explosive problem: His tap water catches fire. Markham demonstrates this in a new documentary, “Gasland,” which just won the Sundance Film Festival Special Jury Prize. Director Josh Fox films Markham as he runs his kitchen faucet, holding a cigarette lighter up to the running water. After a few seconds, a ball of fire erupts out of the sink, almost enveloping Markham’s head.

The source of the flammable water, and the subject of “Gasland,” is the mining process called hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.”


----------



## Ramblin Round

> if i hear reports of cows exploding after drinking local water i will get detailed reports and let you know




You think that's something, the other day I was pulling up old fence posts. Pulled up one of them and damned if oil didn't start flowing out of the ground. :alcohol:


Black Gold........Texas Tea........ lol..........


To hell with dirty tap water. I'll move to the coast with my gabillion dollars and visit this place on the weekends. 

Drill baby drill !!!


----------



## Sdajii

nioka said:


> Cracking Down on Fracking
> Mike Markham of Colorado has an explosive problem: His tap water catches fire. Markham demonstrates this in a new documentary, “Gasland,” which just won the Sundance Film Festival Special Jury Prize. Director Josh Fox films Markham as he runs his kitchen faucet, holding a cigarette lighter up to the running water. After a few seconds, a ball of fire erupts out of the sink, almost enveloping Markham’s head.
> 
> The source of the flammable water, and the subject of “Gasland,” is the mining process called hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.”




If my tap water was flammable I'd be thrilled! I don't think there's a flammable liquid worth less than I pay for tap water. Screw drilling a massive well, I'd have the stuff on tap! Cha ching!


----------



## jetblack

For a while today it was like a mexican stand off with the price, until exploding cows signaled a drift lower in price, some profit taking or shenanigans, was to be expected.

Interesting in the AUT presentation today page 9

"We are seeing :
improved initial production rates
*Decrease in early decline rates*  (Agent M touched on this pt before)
substantial reduction in costs.

Also AUT mention that the Easley well page 17

"expectation for this well location to be at the lower end of the range for condensate yield"

and in todays announcement Easley have elevated gas readings.

Eagleford always seems to amaze.


----------



## estseon

They are fraccing more than 2 miles underground so it doesn't make much sense if the fracc fluid can travel a mile or so towards the surface whilst the oil and gas remains contained within a seal.

The top part of the vertical has to conform with TRRC regs to prevent contamination of water, so it shouldn't be coming from there.

If there is contamination, it could be from the recovery operations on the surface unless anybody else has a view on this. That would not seem to be a particularly difficult problem to solve.

I don't automatically discount everything that the green lobby says but I do keep in mind that a lot of money in the form of research grants is available for claiming. That might have had some connection with the transposition error of the millenium: date for melting of the Himalayan glaciers:

2035

Oh, whoops, did I really say 2035?

Tut, tut, I meant 2350, of course....


Yeah, great, who's going to give any credibility to a projection on global climate running forward 340 years? We can't even predict the next major earthquake or eruption.

Contamination of aquifers by fracc fluid? Prove it. Put a radioactive trace in the frac fluid and prove it.

Back to Easley - it actually seems to be quite a deep well - over 12,000 ft vertical depth (MD less lateral) - perhaps that is why they are expecting it to be 'drier' - the more oily wells are shallower, I thought.


----------



## mir

imo they think it will be drier  because easley is in the southern part of sugarloaf, they are targeting drilling between the chalks & shale.


----------



## adobee

Bigukraine said:


> noticed this in the fraccing frikin etc thread agentm, condog etc thoughts ???
> 
> http://www.democracynow.org/2010/2/...epost if it is interesting ... ... cheers ...


----------



## condog

adobee said:


> cant get this link to work to see what its all about .. can you please repost if it is interesting ... ... cheers ...




Its a report about fraccing, possibly contaminating ground water. Some people allegedly have flamable tap water now???

A lone Congress member has raised it for investigation. ??

Perhaps we should hook our wells up to thier taps and just buy the houses. Iamgine being able to fill the car up from the garden hose. Awesome. lol. Its all hot air in my opinion till proven otherwise.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Let's get this thread back on track by talking about how well the Eagle Ford play is doing. Enough of this EPA/Global Warming Hippie-ish chitter chatter. 

adobee, it's best that link doesn't work. It's just scare tactics and a bunch of hype. TRRC has strict guidelines on drilling and fraccing procedures to protect our great state. Just because soemthing happnes wrong once doesn't mean go cry Chicken Little like the sky's falling and start an investigation.

I'm off to check my shares and today's new $$$ being made.\

ADI and holding.


----------



## condog

Well said Ramblin , like a true Texan. dont hold back, tell us what you really think. Mate you get out the front with the coffee and cookies and cut yourself a deal for 25% royalities and $5000 an acre from BP or Exxon.

They are sitting in pretty wide bollingers at present, ADI more so then AUT, so dont expect any huge action till news. Id like to be proven wrong, but thats my take for a few days or so.


----------



## choppy

Ramblin Round said:


> Let's get this thread back on track by talking about how well the Eagle Ford play is doing. Enough of this EPA/Global Warming Hippie-ish chitter chatter.
> 
> adobee, it's best that link doesn't work. It's just scare tactics and a bunch of hype. TRRC has strict guidelines on drilling and fraccing procedures to protect our great state. Just because soemthing happnes wrong once doesn't mean go cry Chicken Little like the sky's falling and start an investigation.
> I'm off to check my shares and today's new $$$ being made.




AMEN!

Nobody in Congress cared about the fraccing that has been going on safely for over 50 years, they start doing it in their backyard and suddenly the sky is falling.


----------



## jetblack

I have been thinking about my earlier post. 

Where AUT mentions "Decrease in early decline rates" in their presentation.

Maybe I'm nit picking but how would they know this, as they would need to have monitored these wells for at least 30days?, Or this is the standard amongst the players in the Eagleford (or its already known???). And if it is then it alters the dynamics and calculations of what the Eagleford can deliver.

(Agent M touched on this - as mentioned before)

I think its important as this dictates the hydrocarbon content.

Ok, we have had Kennedy and Weston showing more than encouraging results.
Kowalik is another that I believe is full of liquids, yet to be repaired, but I'm just speculating.

AUT have still go to get funding , so I expexct them to talk up their book.

(Agent M touched on this division between the JVP's- it will all come out later)


The area the JVP's are in is high pressurised leads to abundants in liquids, I would'nt be surprised that these guys are drilling for oil more than gas..



Enough from me.


----------



## noco

I am starting to believe that all the good news and glad tidings of the past 2 weeks was designed to ramp up the SP of ADI. Now the 'stags' have moved in and taken some healthy profits.
Agent M I hope you can prove me wrong.
Have held ADI for 4 years. Original cost 80 cents. Added more at the low price to bring my average down to 51 cents. Becoming really pessimistic and p$$ed off.


----------



## sam76

Poor old Agent M.  he get's the gears when the price is languishing and now he gets the gears when the price doesn't increase every day...


Geez, mate ADI doubled last month and now your having a whinge because it has retreated?


----------



## jetblack

noco, I think you are worrying over nothing. The share price technically needed a little softening. Just profit taking , to me the stocks been well accumulated, I dont share your earlier pain holding the stock for so long or at those levels, but would understand the frustration. 

Everyone always wants non stop info, yet its all been positive and moving along nicely. 

Lets wait for the flow rates and even then they will only tell you half the story because there is more in the ground. ( figuratively speaking , the better part is getting flow rates over 6 - 12mnths).


----------



## Ramblin Round

As a new shareholder, who can argue with the historic chart of ADI from the last 4 months ? Now that's easier to say if you bought in at .11 instead of .80 for sure. However, to understand the oilfield and how LONG these processes can take one must know that as long is the chart is going evel slightly up that it is still a positive. 

My speculation ? Multiple corporations are  probably at this very time vollying for leased acreage in return for drilling locations all in and around that area. The contiguos acreages aren't big enough for some of the leased pools. If I were to negotiate deals like this it would definitely be through my lawyer. And we all know.....when lawyers get involved with this kind of money everyone knows how long that can take. Even the permitted locations have dropped off in the last month according to the W1's. There's a hangup down there somewhere but it sure as hell ain't the shale or production capability. I think big things are brewing.

As for your philosophy condog about the comment on price per acre leases.....well right now we just want to get in on the game. To hell with per acre price, I want some production action. Eagle Ford is known for its low PPA and we are willing to support that to get in.


----------



## noco

Thanks fellows, thought I would stir the pot for a reaction.
I wasn't diappointed.
I guess I will just have to wait for some more good news and glad tidings to boast the SP to my level.


----------



## SouthTexasPetro

Kennedy and Weston are in the bag.  The upside for the weston is tremendous considering it is an Chalk well.  Easley is not further south than the Kennedy, its ENE of it...which should yield high condensate levels as well.  The possible difference is it will flow through both the Eagle Ford and Chalk.  Chalk=higher gas/condensate Shale=higher condensate to gas ratio.  Everyone needs to hold on to their panties and watch this thing; patience is a verture.


----------



## Agentm

noco said:


> I am starting to believe that all the good news and glad tidings of the past 2 weeks was designed to ramp up the SP of ADI. Now the 'stags' have moved in and taken some healthy profits.
> Agent M I hope you can prove me wrong.
> Have held ADI for 4 years. Original cost 80 cents. Added more at the low price to bring my average down to 51 cents. Becoming really pessimistic and p$$ed off.




noco

pi%%ed off at me.. your all class mate!!

what have i got to do with the adi sp? can you perhaps stick on topic and discuss the share please?

what price you buy or sell or how much you averaged down and bought at .06 is your deal

please dont post your aggression at me on the forums, if your pi$$ed off then dont make this personal..  

there are rules on this forum and i think it would be wise for the mods to perhaps reflect on what you should and should not do on a forum, and also the wisdom of using a forum to make your investment decisions on..

lastly, if you did average down at .06 like many including my self did, then imho your aggression towards me over the 500% rise in the sp is pretty remarkable


----------



## Miner

Good morning folks

Could one of you please clarify how such sales happen ?

This morning ADI was sold under several transactions. The interesting part was the consideration was only for 28 cents changing over one share only. With commsec the minimum value is $500 and that too attract $29.95 fee unless one has a cash management acct with Commsec.

How can some one pay brokerage for one share transaction and the motive of such transactions. 21 shares transacted in 5 transactions


----------



## sam76

I beleive brokers don't pay any fees when they are the ones that are making the transaction.

EG: if broker x is buying for themselves then they don't pay fees.

I may be wrong though...


----------



## nomore4s

Miner said:


> Good morning folks
> 
> Could one of you please clarify how such sales happen ?
> 
> This morning ADI was sold under several transactions. The interesting part was the consideration was only for 28 cents changing over one share only. With commsec the minimum value is $500 and that too attract $29.95 fee unless one has a cash management acct with Commsec.
> 
> How can some one pay brokerage for one share transaction and the motive of such transactions. 21 shares transacted in 5 transactions






sam76 said:


> I beleive brokers don't pay any fees when they are the ones that are making the transaction.
> 
> EG: if broker x is buying for themselves then they don't pay fees.
> 
> I may be wrong though...




What Sam said, but it could also be partially filled orders getting moved down to be filled - especially considering the drop of the last few days.


----------



## Miner

noco said:


> Thanks fellows, thought I would stir the pot for a reaction.
> I wasn't diappointed.
> I guess I will just have to wait for some more good news and glad tidings to boast the SP to my level.






Agentm said:


> noco
> 
> pi%%ed off at me.. your all class mate!!
> 
> what have i got to do with the adi sp? can you perhaps stick on topic and discuss the share please?
> 
> what price you buy or sell or how much you averaged down and bought at .06 is your deal
> 
> please dont post your aggression at me on the forums, if your pi$$ed off then dont make this personal..
> 
> there are rules on this forum and i think it would be wise for the mods to perhaps reflect on what you should and should not do on a forum, and also the wisdom of using a forum to make your investment decisions on..
> 
> lastly, if you did average down at .06 like many including my self did, then imho your aggression towards me over the 500% rise in the sp is pretty remarkable




Dear Noco

I read your reaction and read Agentm's respond too.

I urge for peace and let us not enter into personal accusation.

To be perfectly impartial and honest let me say that each of us has a strategy to invest. Gains and Losses are our own risks and gains. 

This forum or comments posted can not be held responsible. Yes we do have to follow the code of conduct. 

I am not aligning with any side but how many times we have gone back to the recommendations of sell/hold/buy recommendations made by the brokers, newsletters and even our own financial planners? Look at Bull Newsletter, Daily Reckoning, Aust Small Cap newsletter, Charlie Aitkin, Brokers updates,  and   beloved Alan Kohler's newsletter. All part of the game. 

We all need to be fair to Agentm and  others who have done extensive research and shared the information. Look at the quality of information Agentm has passed on here. With more than 25 years industry experience (not in oil and gas however ) and few university degrees I feel humbled at the detailed knowledge dissemination in this thread. It is upto the readers to read them to act or reject. Why blame them for the outcome ? Has any one shared with the profit if any made from the shared information ?

I do hold ADI and bought it at 6.4 cents by sheer fluke before reading this thread. Now I have hooked into this thread. 

My honest request is please do not treat Agentm or any one contributor in ASF as your adviser or planner for your or any one's financial losses. I am not lecturing or trying to be barracking for Agentm and it is a purely voluntary call from my own side. 

Thanks for your understanding and I do wish that you make some profit from ADI. 

Sorry ADI folks  but took the initiative to intervene before this healthy ADI thread become an unhealthy  sxxt fighting forum for no good reason.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I too will jump in to defend Agentm on his input. This ADIHIF (NASDAQ) investment is not only my first, but is also my first _penny_ to trade at that. In the world of penny stocks this one IMHO is doing pretty well being stable through the crash last year as well as sitting pretty on the physical (and geological prospects) of the future it holds. The reason I invested is because I can drive to the rigs in Texas that Agentm knows about and reports on in Australia, on this here forum. That is amazing to me....... being the simple country boy trying to get in the game that I am.

How silly it is for us to debate profits of 20K-40K US. Or even 50K-100K US to some bold investors, when local oil/gas companies are gambling 150-900 million on the Eagle Ford shale play. 

ADIHF and holding. Patience is a virtue indeed. We all hold pocket change compared to the potential real money to be made here.


----------



## condog

I too - Agents information is well researched. make your own descisions, sheek exscpert adsvic e ass thsese splacses can be wrrrong..


----------



## Ramblin Round

Here's an update:

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX Release 3 March 2010 - Sugarloaf Operations Update.pdf


----------



## noco

Agentm said:


> noco
> 
> pi%%ed off at me.. your all class mate!!
> 
> what have i got to do with the adi sp? can you perhaps stick on topic and discuss the share please?
> 
> what price you buy or sell or how much you averaged down and bought at .06 is your deal
> 
> please dont post your aggression at me on the forums, if your pi$$ed off then dont make this personal..
> 
> there are rules on this forum and i think it would be wise for the mods to perhaps reflect on what you should and should not do on a forum, and also the wisdom of using a forum to make your investment decisions on..
> 
> lastly, if you did average down at .06 like many including my self did, then imho your aggression towards me over the 500% rise in the sp is pretty remarkable




Agent M, sorry you have taken it personally, I was just hoping you could ease my mind.

When I look back to 2007 posts and beyond, month by month, one would almost believe something was always going to happen within a few days or weeks and but never seemed to eventuate.

I am not blaming you as I believe you posted imformation to the best of your knowledge and all in good faith, but after reading these promising posts for the last 4 years, I trust you can understand my frustrations in light of the sudden increase in the SP  over one month and then within a couple days it drops 6 cents. I trust you understand where I am coming from?


----------



## Synergy

This has fallen on decreasing volume and looks to have moved up off the small support level at 27c. Anyone think this is shaping up for another run?


----------



## Ramblin Round

> Agent M, sorry you have taken it personally, I was just hoping you could ease my mind.
> 
> When I look back to 2007 posts and beyond, month by month, one would almost believe something was always going to happen within a few days or weeks and but never seemed to eventuate.
> 
> I am not blaming you as I believe you posted imformation to the best of your knowledge and all in good faith, but after reading these promising posts for the last 4 years, I trust you can understand my frustrations in light of the sudden increase in the SP over one month and then within a couple days it drops 6 cents. I trust you understand where I am coming from?




noco,

Please refer to my sig for furthur advice. If you're still 4 years into a penny stock thread then you already know this game ain't for everyone. If you're not entirely on board then sometimes it's best to get off the boat at the next stop.

In the last week there have been some interesting trades taking place that's for sure. I think it's ready for another run too.

ADIHF and holding.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Agentm said:


> new permit for conoco in live oak, plomero ranch 3H
> obviously next to their first well drilled out there
> 
> conoco has drilled the eskew north well and is drilling the
> F malik well now
> 
> conoco has only one rig drilling in live oak, the adi jvp
> have 2 rigs in karnes county drilling
> 
> conoco has a second rig, a nabors f15 rig in dewitt county,
> that rig finished the maraldo well and is now completing the
> butler well
> 
> in karnes county
> 
> pioneer have have drilled the handy 1H well east of adi
> acreages close to bordovsky and now drilling closer to our
> acreages the chessnut 1 H
> 
> dan hughes finished the darlene 3H and is drilling the
> KASPRZYK-JENDRUSCH UNIT a few miles north of the adi
> kowalik well
> 
> eog have finished the lyssy unit 6 and is drilling the
> lyssy unit 4 just a few miles north of the adi acreages and
> a touch west of dan hughes..
> 
> eog have finished the harper 8 and are drilling the harper
> 4 now a few miles north of the conoco bordovsky
> 
> all imho and dyor





Look at the circle around the ADI acreages. This picture ALONE is enough to get any common sense energy investor to jump onboard with these stock plays.

Do you have any idea the amount of potential CASH that can come from within that circle ? SERIOUSLY ? If you're complaining then no ,you don't.


----------



## condog

Ramblin Round said:


> Look at the circle around the ADI acreages. This picture ALONE is enough to get any common sense energy investor to jump onboard with these stock plays.
> 
> Do you have any idea the amount of potential CASH that can come from within that circle ? SERIOUSLY ? If you're complaining then no ,you don't.




Well said, and look at the names surrounding that circle, do you see many fools there looking to burn cash. I see serious energy players.

In reference to your price graph, i think theres been some seriou cross partner trading. In addition its just a natural pull back ready to consolidate. With kennedy 30 day flows likely, morgan spudded, a pending new apllication and all the news thats imminent, its hard to see all jvp's not having another run very soon.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Synergy said:


> This has fallen on decreasing volume and looks to have moved up off the small support level at 27c. Anyone think this is shaping up for another run?




A period of consolidation is well warranted but any positive news will drive us alot higher.

Things are shaping up very nicely including the charts !!!!


----------



## jetblack

To me ADI is the striaght up play, this is the company that will reap the best rewards. No debt , work what they have and improve on the play.

AUT, AZZ may have extra grounds but this comes at a great cost, you either dilute to raise capital or sell off part of the acerages, this is a big red herring that not alot are seeing. The later is more than likely. 

As it stands I would rather a company that has no debt can further fund their position as it stands and benefit from the wells drilled instead of further speculation in further fields that have yet to be tested (that to me is ground hog revisited)

Coincidence that the previous friday saw a close at 34c ??? only fits in to AUT's presentation, (every jvp for themselves ).

  Maybe jumping at shadows, the calculations that other posters have expressed dont take into account the selling off of further acreages. (the costs are enormous)

Wait until the flow rates are known then there will be no arbitrage amongst the jvp's.


----------



## Agie82

Been reading a little on the Eagle Ford in Gonzales County.  I am southwest on Gonzales in Wrightsboro, small community between Smiley and Gonzales.  We over to look at the Marshall wells, looks like 4 are producing, with 1 pad ready for rig, and building a new pad today.  H-P rig moved over to Clampit-Cusack and is drilling on one site with another pad ready for drilling.  Saw a 12 tank gathering station on Marshall place with a larger group laying pipeline to one of the new wells.  Great deal of seismograph activity just south of Gonzales and on FM 1116, Pilgrim Road area.  Our 800 acres is leased through Griffith Land Services, but we think Denali Oil and Gas is the group they lease for.  Did see 1 rig s/w of Smiley on the Mostyn lease just starting up.  Will comment as I know of new items.


----------



## SouthTexasPetro

ADI doesn't have any holdings in the Gon. area as far as I know.  Their play is in Southwest Karnes Co.  
Maybe someone could help out with this one.


----------



## Lord Badger

Anybody know what EOG is up too in Karnes County, just south and north of Gillett on Hyw 80; they have serveral well on going, on the Harmony Rd on the Dragon place, as well they have purchase the old Opiela place about 150 acres or so, and have erected a very large radio tower, they have placed a sign showing there new hyw address.


----------



## Tordilla Kid

SouthTexasPetro

Appreciate the update on Gonzales County.  May swing by to check it out.  EOG also active SW of you at Harper & Milton wells in NE Karnes, Lyssy & Orr in NW Karnes, and Peeler & Peeler West  in Atascosa.  Dan Hughes is SW of Falls City along FM 791 (Darleen, Kasprzyk-Jendrusch, and Kowalik).  Polish names are pronounced exactly as they are spelled!

Cabot's first Eagle Ford well is in Frio County (Patrick West).  I heard that it is a "good" well.  API 163-33403 

Just west of ADI in Atascosa near the Regency gas plant is XTO (Exxon?) Tartt just approved.  Field is new to me "Fashing (Eagle Ford)."  Completion depth:  10,615'.  API:  013-34291.  

With the recent rains, Spring will be nice.  :guitar:

TK


----------



## Lucky_Country

WOW its great having you Texas Locals on here I hope you all prosper from your landholding just as I hope to prosper from my ADI holdings.

Well EKA are now raising capital thought they may wait until Easley is drilled and up and running but maybe speculation has become a rag on the shareprice.

Hopefully we may have a 30 day report from Kennedy soon would also love to know more about Kowalik !!!


----------



## Ramblin Round

I know there is a lot of activity in the Goerge West area  down there too. This also seems to emulate the activity seen in Cuero and DeWitt County lately too.


----------



## onthebeach

We just received an unsolicited offer to buy strictly our Eagle Ford depths for $1500/acre in the SW Kenedy (Karnes Co.) area. We would retain our overriding interest and continue to operate our existing production. 

It was Hillcorp making the offer...keep in mind it was a first offer, too. ~2000 acres.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Hilcorp is not playing around. After they cashed out their paper a couple weeks ago to make this play, the flag should have been up for all investors that these people mean serious business.


----------



## SouthTexasPetro

Onthebeach...

Interesting that Hillcorp would offer to buy Dewbre's interest in the Eagle Ford in Karnes Co.  Why would Dewbre not drill it themself?  I know their limited success in this play may be a reason; 2.4mm to .5mm "until recently".  With that being said; I would anticipate that DPC would be looking to drill or jv this holding, if cash is a problem.  They stand to make much more than 3M and the fact that leases are headed above the 1750 pt. in the area... seems to be an offer that I would refuse.  

Hillcorp is a player and will be here for a while...   Not sure if they know their offer has been made public... like this.  Interesting.


----------



## Ramblin Round

People..........let's respect the offers and keep them private. It could hurt the JVP and ADI. Then nobody wins. Not that I'm wanting to tell others what to do. It's a free country, do what you want. Just know that there's a lot of money on the table and would hate for someone to sell *me* out on a public forum.


----------



## SouthTexasPetro

I agree completely.  Deductive reasoning tells you who beach works for... he states it in his own posting.  That is the type of info. that needs to be kept private from a corp. level as well as in this blog.  Prices for acreage is fine and helps land owners know the market.    The additional info regarding the play is accurate info.  I only work with the info. in front of me.


----------



## choppy

SouthTexasPetro said:


> Onthebeach...
> 
> Interesting that Hillcorp would offer to buy Dewbre's interest in the Eagle Ford in Karnes Co.  Why would Dewbre not drill it themself?  I know their limited success in this play may be a reason; 2.4mm to .5mm "until recently".




Dewbre's production in Karnes was historically from the Edwards.  Comparing those flow rates/ decline to the eagleford is apples to oranges.  I am speculating the real reason that Dewbre may be interested in farming out (onthebeach did say it was unsolicited so they may just drill it themselves) is the high development costs for the play.  

Even the larger independents are getting JV partners to help fund development.  Dewbre is currently operating one eagleford well in Atascosa County offsetting the EOG Peeler acreage.


----------



## Agentm

choppy

enduring finished off that eagleford well in karnes county

just 5 miles south of the ADI weston well, and  in bee county, enduring have a permit going in the pawnee field for a wildcat

looks suspiciously like an eagleford completion to me,, your thoughts?


----------



## Ramblin Round

Damn talk about a hot spot. Directional rigs are EVERYwhere on that map !!! That's the sort of things dreams are made of.


----------



## estseon

Those short ones are drilled with the trend - they might be chasing a different horizon.

Almost all the Burlington wells, and all of ours, have been drilled at right angles to the trend - the Weston well is typical from what I recall.

Hilcorp's wells seem to follow the same orientation from maps posted.


----------



## Agentm

estseon

the pawnee is a field that chases the edwards like the fashing, those wells there are not eagleford, they ARE on a different horizon.. only a few on the trend are in the eagleford.. 

and only a few here like choppy and some other texan oilers are discussing those wells.... 

some local wells are discussed and some remain deeply hidden and never discussed, like the one drilled by TCEi in the AUT ipanema acreages.. 

the laterals there are all edwards except for the one i have pointed out, imho its not an edwards permit.. and its only imho..

nowhere have i said nor suggested that all those laterals on the rrc map are eagleford, no one is suggesting that for a moment, and everyone is aware of the huge gas field that has been developed there over the past decades.. 

there are thousands of wells in both trends..

kunde 1 was the discovery well for the sugarkane, a well burlington and texas crude energy inc did exploring the edwards backreef from memory, the rest is history..


----------



## mick z

geez estseon,

                   please check with the one that know all before posting havnt you learnt yet, please keep up with the program. LOL

cheers.


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

I would agree that the Enduring Nichols well is probably an Eagleford Test.  Enduring is leasing heavily in the area for the Eagleford in addition to the acreage they already have leftover from their Edwards program.  Lease bonuses in the area are skyrocketing to say the least.  Hillcorp is actively trying to add acreage to their block.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Bordovsky is flowing at 1500 barrels a day !! That means it's generating over $100,000 per day in oil alone. I hear that the pipeline is already being planned to start connecting the dots in that area. Butler, Bordovsky, etc. will all be producing at record volumes. 


IMHO and DYOR, but it's a nice day to have stock in this area. Literally.


----------



## condog

Ramblin Round said:


> Bordovsky is flowing at 1500 barrels a day !! That means it's generating over $100,000 per day in oil alone. I hear that the pipeline is already being planned to start connecting the dots in that area. Butler, Bordovsky, etc. will all be producing at record volumes.
> 
> 
> IMHO and DYOR, but it's a nice day to have stock in this area. Literally.




Thats a staggering figure. Whats the location of Bordovcsky relative to aMI , and how many frac stages etc was it. Im guessing its only in the eagleford, not the Austin.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Location of the Bordovsky = 

GIS_LAT27 28.9391251 
GIS_LONG27 -97.7972237 
GIS_LAT83 28.9393784 
GIS_LONG83 -97.7975018 


Right near the town of Helena.


----------



## choppy

The Bordovsky well is just NE of the ADI acreages, right on trend.  It is an eagleford horizontal but I don't know how many stages the frac was.  The well's initial production was 4mmcfg and 1500 barrels per day.

The first month (october) it made 18500 barrels, the second month it made 14500 barrels and the third month it made 779 barrels.

I suspect they shut it in early in the third month to build a gas pipeline, becasue they were flaring the gas up until that point.  Realistically it is more like a 500 barrel per day well.

When you frac the eagleford you will most likely at least partially drain the Austin Chalk.


----------



## estseon

Kennedy was half a well and it still managed 1,100 bbls + 4.3mmcfg when at an early stage of cleaning up. I think that to be Hilcorp magic.


----------



## Agentm

dan hughes started their next well the kowalik well north of the adi kowalik well
also north of the kowalik well there are 2 rigs drilling lyssy 4h and 5h side by side

pioneer has 2 rigs operating on the eagleford play in karnes, one on handy south of the bordovsky well, and one just east of the adi acreages called chessnut

not hearing much on the adi wells other than the weston well being seen to be flaring a while back, on clean up

rambling

in your county geosouthern have put in plenty of new permits along with conoco and enduring

choppy

i was looking with interest at the many wells in gonzales that eog have, then looked at an  vertical and the horizontal that went on production last year.. i see the first horizontal well boosted the bopd to 500 in nov-dec 09..


----------



## choppy

estseon said:


> Kennedy was half a well and it still managed 1,100 bbls + 4.3mmcfg when at an early stage of cleaning up. I think that to be Hilcorp magic.




There are alot of references around to "cleaning up".  In reality I think that almost always your peak production rate is reached within the first week after flowback begins.  I think its generally safe to assume that the reported IPs are peak rates.


----------



## prgudula

Half Year Report for the period ending 31 December 2009

report released and price went down to 28.5 cents. so is there anything in report we need to be worried about


----------



## Sdajii

prgudula said:


> Half Year Report for the period ending 31 December 2009
> 
> report released and price went down to 28.5 cents. so is there anything in report we need to be worried about




The price went down to 28.5c on tiny volume and before the announcement's release. After the announcement the bid is now back at 29c, so I don't think there was anything which spooked anyone. I looked through it and didn't see any obvious gremlins to be worried about or any exciting surprises (not that I'd necessarily recognise them).


----------



## estseon

Reports on wells frozen at 3rd March. There is some mention of 'lease maintenance'. Escrowed cash. Yemen 2nd block still up for sale. EKA says even less. The underwriters of the EKA share issue must know more and it must be comforting. If they have continued to drill Easley at the rate for the first 2.800 ft, it will be approaching TD some time this week.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Checking for updates. Any word on JVP top leasing activities or locations ? There's quite a few handshakes being made around here lately from what I hear. Really expensive handshakes.


----------



## Ramblin Round

What happened to drop ADI down to the .23 range today ? One minute I'm happy and the next minute....not so happy.

OUCH !!!!

EDIT: OPEC meeting may have had something to do with it. I think it's just 1st quarter economics at play.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6142V820100316


----------



## WRONG'UN

Volume was tiny - 5000 shares.
The volume has also dried up on the ASX, which suggests that this downleg is a correction, and just needs to run its course. It is understandable that there would be some profit taking after such a strong run.   
The overnight rebound in the oil price, and commodities in general, may help sentiment.


----------



## lemontree

WRONG'UN said:


> Volume was tiny - 5000 shares.
> The volume has also dried up on the ASX, which suggests that this downleg is a correction, and just needs to run its course. It is understandable that there would be some profit taking after such a strong run.
> The overnight rebound in the oil price, and commodities in general, may help sentiment.




That's what i believe too. I actually topped off yesterday, fell a bit short from the low but what can you do.. haha


----------



## Miner

WRONG'UN said:


> Volume was tiny - 5000 shares.
> The volume has also dried up on the ASX, which suggests that this downleg is a correction, and just needs to run its course. It is understandable that there would be some profit taking after such a strong run.
> The overnight rebound in the oil price, and commodities in general, may help sentiment.






Ramblin Round said:


> What happened to drop ADI down to the .23 range today ? One minute I'm happy and the next minute....not so happy.
> 
> OUCH !!!!
> 
> EDIT: OPEC meeting may have had something to do with it. I think it's just 1st quarter economics at play.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6142V820100316





Hi Ramblin Round

I second  what lemontree and Wrong'un have suggested.
The volume was low and that means the real holders are sitting tight to see things to happen. Me too

However I did not see if ADI actually dropped to 23 cents range. Was it a typo for 28 cents ?

 I have reproduced the low and high values for last five days of ADI quote from ASX 

16 Mar 2010 0.275 -3.51%  0.290 0.275 17,300 
15 Mar 2010 0.285 -5%  0.300 0.285 50,000 
12 Mar 2010 0.300 -1.64%  0.320 0.300 74,890 
11 Mar 2010 0.305 -4.69%  0.330 0.305 36,367 
10 Mar 2010 0.320 -1.54%  0.340 0.320 90,621 





lemontree said:


> That's what i believe too. I actually topped off yesterday, fell a bit short from the low but what can you do.. haha


----------



## WRONG'UN

ADIHF was 23.5 (cUS) on the OTC Bulletin Board. I think that's what Ramblin is talking about (that right, Ramblin?). Hardly any volume for some days.


----------



## lemontree

I suspect the volume levels will remain relatively lwo unti lthe next announcement on their drilling process. Hopefully positive news will be reported soon.


----------



## Miner

Here u go with the announcement.

This caused a 7 % spike in ADI price.

However I am confused whereas ADI, AUT and EKA all reported and benefitted from this announcement why EKA still slogged and currently quoted 4% less than yesterday's closing rate, AUT got excited by 1.2 %  so far.

Probably the same dose of is not good enough for all of them to be excited at same level


----------



## prgudula

17 March 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on operations
within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Easley #1H
The first new well under the farm-in agreement with Hilcorp Energy has reached a depth of
15,593 ft and a production casing string has now been run and cemented in preparation for
a staged fracture stimulation. The well has approximately 3,000 ft of horizontal section within
the reservoir and is in a similar location to the Weston #1 well. The drilling rig is presently being
demobilised off location. The Operator will in due course undertake fracture stimulation
operations on this well and it will then be flowed to sales.
Morgan #1H
The well has drilled to a depth of 12,664 ft and the well path has built angle to approximately
horizontal within the reservoir section. Preparations are presently underway to commence
the horizontal section of the well.
Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H
Both wells continue to produce to sales in line with expectation. Further production guidance
will be provided once trends are established.
_____________________________________________________________________________


----------



## jancha

Miner said:


> Here u go with the announcement.
> 
> This caused a 7 % spike in ADI price.
> 
> However I am confused whereas ADI, AUT and EKA all reported and benefitted from this announcement why EKA still slogged and currently quoted 4% less than yesterday's closing rate, AUT got excited by 1.2 %  so far.
> 
> Probably the same dose of is not good enough for all of them to be excited at same level




I realize that this isn't the EKA thread but I noticed in the announcement that EKA has a 12.5% interest in the farm in.
I thought originally they had a 10% interest.
Why the extra 2.5% & where's it attained from?


----------



## lemontree

I am also curious as to whether production tubing has been fitted into the Kennedy and Weston #1 wells? If not how long does it normally take for them to do so?


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yes I'm trading US Nasdaq and it was .23 down from .28 as of yesterday. Haven't looked today yet.


I thought the annual report was a bit dismal from a laymans persepective if you didn't know anything about oilfield activities. I thought that might have had something to do with the drop. But knowing how good these wells clean up and how much money is on the line it won't be long until full production. Wish I was in a position to buy more. I think the pipeline is really the holdup to all of this. Too many holes in the ground and nowhere to go. Speculation and DYOR of course.


----------



## estseon

There's no real volume and no real results for the market to get its teeth into.

I get the impression that Hilcorp are a 'no nonsense' outfit that have a clear view of their objective. They drilled 2,800 ft between 19 Feb and 2nd March and then stalled. We can only guess at the reason but they lined it ready for fracccing and then prepared to move on. Significantly, there was no tearful report of having to fish out lost equipment. I feel that we should look at the positives.  With a potential of over 200 wells on Sugarloaf using existing technology, there's no reason to take additional risk with any particular well. We know that it's difficult geology and that the technology is at an early stage of development. They''re focussed on results (so it would seem) not perfection (yet). That's fine by me. Drill away!


----------



## jancha

Hardly any trading with ADI AUT or EKA of late even tho everything seems to be going to plan.
Guess we're all waiting on flow results.
Also noticed that Agentm seems to have taken a back seat or maybe he's gone on a well deserved holiday after all his research & postings over the years.


----------



## Speculator

jancha said:


> Hardly any trading with ADI AUT or EKA of late even tho everything seems to be going to plan.
> Guess we're all waiting on flow results.
> Also noticed that Agentm seems to have taken a back seat or maybe he's gone on a well deserved holiday after all his research & postings over the years.




Flow results are key, now its just a patience game. Judging by the SP of late many have already lost thier cool.

I would suspect Agentm has nothing further to add atm (as I believe he would let us know if he went on holiday or simply comment on his holiday) but I agree it would be comforting to hear from him.

My plan has no reason to be altered and thus remains unchanged. Holding patiently.


----------



## Agentm

Speculator said:


> Flow results are key, now its just a patience game. Judging by the SP of late many have already lost thier cool.
> 
> I would suspect Agentm has nothing further to add atm (as I believe he would let us know if he went on holiday or simply comment on his holiday) but I agree it would be comforting to hear from him.
> 
> My plan has no reason to be altered and thus remains unchanged. Holding patiently.




there are no signs of any of the adi wells being P&A..

kennedy has a new pipeline being built to it for instance


the huge murphy well west of karnes township is flaring away atm..

rig is coming down on easley as reported by the jvp and morgan is drilling away.. 

conoco is about to frac their eskew north well and the lasca butler well i hear is flaring atm

plenty of indications on the ground as to where the hilcorp operator is going next..

my view is that this little jvp is right on the money..


----------



## Adam A

Gday agent what does p&a mean?
looking forward to further news
Thanks to all for keeping us informed


----------



## philly

Adam A said:


> Gday agent what does p&a mean?
> looking forward to further news
> Thanks to all for keeping us informed




P & A means plugged and abandoned and usually indicates a dry hole ie that no hydrocarbons ie oil or gas were located.
Our wells have gas and some oil time will tell if the wells are commercial or not.
Iam a happy holder


----------



## Agentm

philly said:


> P & A means plugged and abandoned and usually indicates a dry hole ie that no hydrocarbons ie oil or gas were located.
> Our wells have gas and some oil time will tell if the wells are commercial or not.
> Iam a happy holder




lol doesnt matter how short it is, how much you screw it up, they all are commercial

 these is a lot of pressure there for  sure..


----------



## Agentm

this is the new kennedy pipeline being put in as of yesterday, i am sure it already had one before..

in line with expectations (mine) the kennedy well continues to produce to sales. 

lol

we all know that further production guidance will be provided once trends are established.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yeah that bugger is dug out to cross HWY 119 close to Gillette too. Looks like they have a big project going on to connect the dots. Nothing but pipeliner welders around these parts working O/T. Let that tube get finished up and you're gonna see some action like nobody's business in the South Texas oil and gas exploration.


----------



## Agentm

Agentm said:


> this is the new kennedy pipeline being put in as of yesterday





easley







morgan







and somewhere else near by which looks pretty interesting


----------



## Miner

Looks like the sell pressure on ADI is rather high but the sales orders are however for a much higher value .
3.3 million scrips to sell against .73 M to buy.
Current screen dump from COmmsec this mornnig


----------



## prgudula

current market depth for ADI in E*Trade

Buyers	Qty	Price		Price	Qty	Sellers
2	69295	0.255		0.26	1558	        1
3	100122	0.25		0.265	8554	        1
1	10000	0.245		0.27	13867	1
2	104000	0.24		0.275	20000	1
1	20000	0.22		0.28	33000	2
5	87500	0.2		0.29	14000	1
2	11911	0.195		0.3	1708	        1
1	100000	0.19		0.31	17000	1
1	6000	        0.11		0.315	97000	2
				        0.32	50000	1

18	508828				256687	12


----------



## lemontree

Hey Miner i took a look at your attachment.. i'm not sure if that actually represents ADI?

At the moment i see: 
18 buyers for 508,828 units 	40 sellers for 1,229,059 units 	

The prices also do no match up.


----------



## jancha

lemontree said:


> Hey Miner i took a look at your attachment.. i'm not sure if that actually represents ADI?
> 
> At the moment i see:
> 18 buyers for 508,828 units 	40 sellers for 1,229,059 units
> 
> The prices also do no match up.




Wouldn't be placing too much importance on buyers v's sellers or volumes for for & against at this stage.
EKA is the opposite & AUT is about on even par atm.
Just wait for some flow rates & then we'll see.


----------



## adobee

I agree with this, whilst I prefer to see a bank of buyers building up on the whole if someone decides to take a position they will just take a position they wont stick in there buy 5c lower for 1000000 shares.. . just my thoughts anyway..


----------



## Miner

lemontree said:


> Hey Miner i took a look at your attachment.. i'm not sure if that actually represents ADI?
> 
> At the moment i see:
> 18 buyers for 508,828 units 	40 sellers for 1,229,059 units
> 
> The prices also do no match up.




Thanks Lemon Tree
Sorry for mixing up and the wrong attachment in my previous post.

You helped me to reduce my blood pressure as well.

I have attached the revised attachment and it gives a better picture.


----------



## Miner

Probably it is all known and seen by ADI researchers.

But I read with interest about Eagleford published in Upstream and posting the link for common interest. Looks like it is all happening and bigger players are there in Eagleford too. I am sure our most reverred ADI guru (we all ADI followers definitely know who it is,  will provide some additional information ) will provide more update on this.  

Enjoy the wait 

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article209289.ece


----------



## Agentm

its a nice well miner

it sits smack in the dead centre of the county, if its their northern most well then further south they will possibly experience the drier gas zones

the 6-1 ratio makes it a 7.2 mmcfpde well on ip

the oil is certainly higher than usual for the region there.. 


closer to home i think the easley well will test pretty soon, as the site itself is being prepared for a frac.

_"The Operator will in due course undertake fracture stimulation
operations on this well and it will then be flowed to sales" _


pretty spot on, as thats certainly what it appears like on the ground..

imho the possibility of the first free carried hilcorp jvp well being on production may be in a week or so..

the eskew north ewell in live oak is about to test more or less right now, will be curious how the conocophillips well will go.. 

all imho and dyor


----------



## jestex12

Pioneer scores Eagle Ford treble
US independent Pioneer Natural Resources has notched up its third success in the south Texas Eagle Ford shale play. 

UpstreamOnline staff  23 March 2010 12:18 GMT 


The Charles Riedesel GU 1-1 well, in DeWitt County, flowed at an initial production rate of about 15.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day on a 22/64 inch choke with about 6300 psi wellhead flowing pressure. 

The well was drilled to a vertical depth of 13,800 feet and completed in a 4500-foot lateral section with a 14-stage fracture stimulation. 

*Pioneer chief executive Scott Sheffield said: “We are very pleased with the results from the Riedesel-1 which has high liquids content and one of the highest total combined gas and liquids rates reported in the play to date. *

"The well is approximately 55 miles from the Crawley -1 discovery and confirms the potential of the northeastern portion of our Eagle Ford Shale position. 

"Combined with our earlier success in the south-western portion of our acreage, this well further strengthens our confidence in the development potential of the 1750 Eagle Ford Shale locations we’ve identified, with most of these in the condensate window. "


----------



## jestex12

More Eagle Ford Success for Pioneer 
by Catharina Milostan | 23 Mar 2010  
From The TorontoStar




Pioneer Natural Resources' PXD third successful Eagle Ford Shale well in south Texas revealed strong gas and liquids production potential in the northeastern portion of its acreage position in DeWitt County, Texas. This helps to extend the potential size and liquids potential of the Eagle Ford Shale trend to the northeast from core drilling activity in McMullen County, Texas.

Pioneer's Charles Riedesel GU 1-1 well flowed at an initial production rate of about 15.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (mmcfe/d). More important, this initial flow included liquids of 680 barrels of condensate per day and liquids-rich gas containing 1,200 BTUs per cubic foot. A higher liquids content allows Pioneer to take advantage of the current pricing advantage of oil over natural gas to earn higher returns per well. The well was drilled to a depth of 13,800 feet and was drilled horizontally with a 4,500-foot lateral section and 14-stage fracture stimulation. The Riedesel #1 well is 55 miles from Pioneer's Crawley #1 discovery in Live Oak County, which is two counties to the southwest of DeWitt. This discovery helps to support Pioneer's estimate of 1,750 potential Eagle Ford Shale drilling locations.

*Pioneer is targeting liquids-rich areas with two rigs drilling in Karnes County, which lies between Live Oak and DeWitt counties. The firm is looking to form a joint venture to help develop its 310,000 gross acres in the Eagle Ford Shale, with bids expected at the end of the second quarter. We'll monitor the firm's progress in developing Eagle Ford Shale wells to support production growth goals.*


----------



## Agentm

hey jess

closer to you in dewitt we see petrohawk have taken a huge chunk of the geosouthern land. so they like the trend and particularly like the oil there!!

the geosouthern wells mentioned in their presentation is indeed interesting

i have been watching those wells recently and lanik 1 kickendahl and krause 2 are all recent wells on the go..

the geosouthern (now petrohawk) krause 1 flow of 3.3 mmcfpd with 1150 bopd is next to the conocophilips hooks well.  it settled down to 3 mmcfpd and 960 bopd.  nice result on a gel frac


----------



## Happy

I am watching this one and I would love stock to go down to between 0.23 and 0.175 which would either confirm a-b-c retracement, or 61% retracement. 

As it is now for my liking, chart hangs in the air as it went past weak 0.27 support/resistance.

Luckily watching doesnt cost too much just my time.


----------



## rock86

Happy said:


> I am watching this one and I would love stock to go down to between 0.23 and 0.175 which would either confirm a-b-c retracement, or 61% retracement.
> 
> As it is now for my liking, chart hangs in the air as it went past weak 0.27 support/resistance.
> 
> Luckily watching doesnt cost too much just my time.




Is this a good thing going past the 27c or may we still see it drop (from chartist POV), and what the hell is a a-b-c retracement


----------



## prgudula

new updates

25 March 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
SUGARLOAF AMI PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS UPDATE
Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on production
and operations at the Sugarloaf AMI within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Production
Initial production trends for the Kennedy #1H and the Weston #1H wells are now being
established, although neither well has yet had production tubing installed. Further to previous
ASX announcements detailing initial production rates, Adelphi can now provide 30 day
average production rates for these wells.
· Kennedy #1H – 11.7 mmscfe/d*
· Weston #1H – 11.5 mmscfe/d*
*These figures have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and
a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.
These figures are very encouraging and compare favourably with other reported 30 day
averages across the Eagle Ford trend, in particular Petrohawk Energy Corporation (NYSE:HK),
who recently announced (01/02/10) in their fourth quarter results that 19 wells in the Hawkville
Field (located to the south east of Sugarkane within the Eagle Ford Trend) were averaging 7.8
mmscfe/d (12:1 conversion) over their first 30 days of production.
Operations
Morgan #1H – The horizontal section of this well is progressing with the latest reported depth
at 16,926 ft which equates to a reservoir section of approximately 4,800 ft. Once TD is called
on this well it will be completed with a cemented casing string and fracture stimulated before
being flowed to sales.
Rancho Grande #1H – A drilling rig has been mobilised to the location of this, the third farm-in
well within the Sugarloaf AMI, and is presently being rigged up. This well is expected to spud
shortly.
Easley #1H – This well is waiting on commencement of fracture stimulation operations and it
will then be flowed to sales.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Adelphi currently (pre-farmout) has a 20% working interest in the Sugarloaf AMI.
Other ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf AMI, and their respective pre-farm-out working
interests are:
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited 20.0%
Eureka Energy Limited 12.5%


----------



## jancha

ADI's Western 11.5 mmscfe/d
Kennedy 11.7 mmscfe/d
Petrolhawk has an average of 7.8 mmscfe/d with their wells.
ADI looks to have the prime spot.
Come on Easley.


----------



## Bigukraine

jancha said:


> ADI's Western 11.5 mmscfe/d
> Kennedy 11.7 mmscfe/d
> Petrolhawk has an average of 7.8 mmscfe/d with their wells.
> ADI looks to have the prime spot.
> Come on Easley.




have to agree with you and look's like the market reaction is over the top  maybe trying to fish out some nervous nellie's


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> ADI's Western 11.5 mmscfe/d
> Kennedy 11.7 mmscfe/d
> Petrolhawk has an average of 7.8 mmscfe/d with their wells.
> ADI looks to have the prime spot.
> Come on Easley.




what about morgan?  4800 feet and still going strong


conoco put out a presentation last night. imho worth a look..

http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/investor/presentations_ccalls/Documents/2010_AM.pdf


----------



## Bigukraine

Thanks for the info agentm very informative as we have come to expect from yourself and it looks to me a smooth trans from the ops from tcei to hilcorp is already begining to bare fruit onwards and upwards i say (or downwards in this case) !!!


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm,

Question re morgan, ADI reported that they have reached a depth of 16,926ft and have gone through a reservior section of 4,800ft and are saying the frac will start after TD is called 1) are they going to keep drilling a reasonable distance until they they meet resistance because it sounds like the TD is fluid thing(not defined) 2) would they of got an indication of gas/oil from the reservior section (4800ft) thanks in advance !!!


----------



## Agentm

Bigukraine said:


> Agentm,
> 
> Question re morgan, ADI reported that they have reached a depth of 16,926ft and have gone through a reservior section of 4,800ft and are saying the frac will start after TD is called 1) are they going to keep drilling a reasonable distance until they they meet resistance because it sounds like the TD is fluid thing(not defined) 2) would they of got an indication of gas/oil from the reservior section (4800ft) thanks in advance !!!




morgan can drill to a bit over 6000 feet

they will go until td, or if they have to end it sooner they will

my cash is on them going a lot further than todays length

you cant go longer than the plan, but often if the formation has pressure and temp issues like this one has, then you can end up with smaller laterals.

right now having close to 5000 feet there is sensational

pretty happy myself.


----------



## rock86

Agentm said:


> morgan can drill to a bit over 6000 feet
> 
> they will go until td, or if they have to end it sooner they will
> 
> my cash is on them going a lot further than todays length
> 
> you cant go longer than the plan, but often if the formation has pressure and temp issues like this one has, then you can end up with smaller laterals.
> 
> right now having close to 5000 feet there is sensational
> 
> pretty happy myself.




I think all us holders like it (this whole announcment is very posistive and upbeat) however, once again the market doesn't even take notice


----------



## jancha

rock86 said:


> I think all us holders like it (this whole announcment is very posistive and upbeat) however, once again the market doesn't even take notice




First up thanks Agentm good info.
Secondly you would think that with the updated announcements ( all positive) the sp would head north and yet it's down from it's high of 3wks ago.
Am i missing something here?


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> First up thanks Agentm good info.
> Secondly you would think that with the updated announcements ( all positive) the sp would head north and yet it's down from it's high of 3wks ago.
> Am i missing something here?




I'm puzzling over the same thing. I've increased my holdings twice (well, once in ADI and once in EKA) recently, and since then the news has been good while the price has not improved. If I better understood oil I would probably increase my holdings again, but I just don't understand if the market is missing an opportunity or if the picture would not look so rosey if I knew how to properly view it. From 38c to 28c on nothing but good news just seems bizarre. Is there a negative I have missed? Has the global supply/demand situation changed THAT much over the last few weeks? Doesn't look to be the case to me.


----------



## estseon

The reporting in cfge hides the rich condensate ratio. Because of the conversion, Kennedy (73% of the length of Weston) is appearing to produce the same as Weston. Morgan is heading towards 2.5x Kennedy on trend with Kowalik, which flowed a better ratio than Kennedy. Hopefully, we will have 30 day figures for Morgan by the end of May and figures for Easley early in May.

I suspect that there is disappointment in the fall of Kennedy's reported production from 19.1mmcfge/d. Explanation might help.


----------



## choppy

jancha said:


> ADI's Western 11.5 mmscfe/d
> Kennedy 11.7 mmscfe/d
> Petrolhawk has an average of 7.8 mmscfe/d with their wells.
> ADI looks to have the prime spot.
> Come on Easley.





Make sure you are comparing apples to apples.  Remember that ADI's numbers are adjusted for mmbtu equivalent and on a 12:1 basis of gas to oil.  Overall I think it is amazing how uniform the production has been across the trend.  The only real variable being liquids content.  The drier wells have a higher gas rate that yields very similiar economics at the end of the day.


----------



## WRONG'UN

There are some interesting points in Patersons' 22 Dec 2009 report on AZZ which are relevant to ADI. Excerpts from the report are attached:

Para 1. Flow rates are similar to those recorded elsewhere in the Eagle Ford - confirmation of the uniformity across the field.
Para 2. A post tax NPV of $1/mcfe. On this basis ADI's 130bcfe would have an unrisked valuation of 88 cents per share.
Para 3 - last sentence: "....unlike conventional oil and gas, a positive result in a resource play essentially de-risks the entire resource."
The Dec 2009 Hartleys' report (ref my post #4741, 21/2/2010) valued ADI at 27 - 37c risked, and 180 - 186c unrisked. If, as Patersons contend for AZZ, positive results de-risk the entire resource, then the valuation should move towards the unrisked valuation of 180 - 186c. The oil/gas prices themselves remains a risk (oil the more significant due to the high liquids content in the product), but the the figure of 88c (Para 2, above) could be a reasonable first target.
On the basis of the above, I would suggest that the recent reaction in the sp is in part a healthy correction after a strong rise, and in part a disproportionate reaction to a slight softening in the oil price, and a slightly larger but less significant fall in the gas price.


----------



## vpayne

Geosouthern/petrohawk should employ better map makers. The counties named on slide 18 are correct, however slid 22 shows the Kraus & lanik wells  in Karnes instead of Dewitt.

 Yes I know, typical picky accountants observations


----------



## Ramblin Round

Ha ha that's pretty funnt right thar ! Wonder if any of the landmen even notice these days. LoL...........


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Make sure you are comparing apples to apples.  Remember that ADI's numbers are adjusted for mmbtu equivalent and on a 12:1 basis of gas to oil.  Overall I think it is amazing how uniform the production has been across the trend.  The only real variable being liquids content.  The drier wells have a higher gas rate that yields very similiar economics at the end of the day.




choppy the pioneer chesnutt gas unit 1h has got to a completion of 17,566 feet, its about 500 feet shorter than the pioneer handy 1h well which got 17,966 feet

hoping hilcorp will lift their game and get somewhere further with morgan, and at least live up to my expectations of completing one lateral to td

choppy, whats your view on the petrohawk eur on the 53000 acres at blackhawk,  its estimated at 500 - 750 MBoe in dewitt county?  they have average EUR estimates as 5.5 Bcfe per well in hawkville.


----------



## Sdajii

wrong'un: $1.80-1.86 sounds just on acceptable to me, in fact, I'd grudgingly accept 88c figure (yes, I'm joking, my average buy has been about 20c and I'd be thrilled with anything in the vicinity of either figure). I am still pretty green, but have seen a lot of price targets being thrown around for companies in all sectors, and more often than not they are fairly meaningless which intertwined with time and reality. What is the timeframe for those targets/predictions? More like six months or more like six years? 

I was originally buying in at about 17c hoping for a quick profit (which I got), selling out and buying a house later this year, but (FML!) my situation has turned out a little differently from expected and I'm now expecting it to be late 2012 at the earliest before I'm house hunting. So, I'm seeing this as looking good and holding for a while if things keep looking nice. If we hit $1.50 before then my mortgage will be looking a lot less menacing!  (or maybe I'll get greedy and have the same mortgage on a larger house : )


----------



## estseon

At 100 acre spacings, that's about 1 - 1.5 mmboe per well.

As their discovery well is comparable to Kennedy, which might be a half or less of a new well drilled at full length, that suggests a potentially ridiculous value for each of our wells. At the current share price, even moving the decimal point back would have most whooping for joy.


----------



## gdaf

"potentially ridiculous value " - could you elaborate? I haven't plugged any figures into the latest round of results yet, but I know that the 30 day averages change the game quite considerably. I wasn't actually expecting those rates until we were well into the newer wells.


----------



## Sdajii

estseon said:


> At 100 acre spacings, that's about 1 - 1.5 mmboe per well.
> 
> As their discovery well is comparable to Kennedy, which might be a half or less of a new well drilled at full length, that suggests a potentially ridiculous value for each of our wells. At the current share price, even moving the decimal point back would have most whooping for joy.




So you're suggesting we're going to see ADI scream well beyond $2.80? Bold claim, but I hope you're right. What ballpark time frame do you suggest? With that potential there are presumably some big risks I am not seeing, or there is a severe shortage of people who understand oil viewing ADI and a spectacular opportunity is being missed by just about everyone. There seem to be enough wells in the area now to give quite a good idea of how much hydrocarbon can be extracted per acre, and assuming Texas doesn't get submerged by an earthquake or nuked by Chinese terrorists I assume that oil is going to be coming out of the ground, so the only major risks in the long term are currency and oil/gas price fluctuations. I was under the assumption that the largest risk was that the area would turn out not to have a lot of oil, or it would be very patchy, but the whole area is now dotted with wells and that risk seems to be gone. Am I missing something?


----------



## Ramblin Round

I am directly in the play and my comment is this: You can't take your grandma to the hair salon without hearing about Eagle Ford shale or the oilfield explosion aorund here lately.  Like a mad scramble, daily. Rigs, lease companies, vaccuum truck companies, location production companies. The job market from Houston to Corpus is asking nothing but frac operators, oilfield hands, geologists and experienced drillers. You can't even get from point A to point B on the highway anymore without getting stuck in a herd of oilfield trucks on these small Texas Farm to Market roads. It is getting ridiculous actually. I've never seen anything like it.

If you don't beleive me, I know personally who the Riedesel 1 is named after and they are 7 miles from me. He still won't buy a new truck but he might buy a new tractor for all that hay from the recent rains here.

ADI for the win !


----------



## Sdajii

Forgive my ignorance, but how far from all this is Bourne, TX (or San Antonio)? Would people out there be hearing about it?


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> At 100 acre spacings, that's about 1 - 1.5 mmboe per well.
> 
> As their discovery well is comparable to Kennedy, which might be a half or less of a new well drilled at full length, that suggests a potentially ridiculous value for each of our wells. At the current share price, even moving the decimal point back would have most whooping for joy.




4127 feet lateral in krause

it was a weber operatoed well and in partnership with geosouthern and a kuwati oil company

the petrohawk outfit purchased it after they put it on the market

this is the first three months production











Ramblin Round said:


> I am directly in the play and my comment is this: You can't take your grandma to the hair salon without hearing about Eagle Ford shale or the oilfield explosion aorund here lately.  Like a mad scramble, daily. Rigs, lease companies, vaccuum truck companies, location production companies. The job market from Houston to Corpus is asking nothing but frac operators, oilfield hands, geologists and experienced drillers. You can't even get from point A to point B on the highway anymore without getting stuck in a herd of oilfield trucks on these small Texas Farm to Market roads. It is getting ridiculous actually. I've never seen anything like it.
> 
> If you don't beleive me, I know personally who the Riedesel 1 is named after and they are 7 miles from me. He still won't buy a new truck but he might buy a new tractor for all that hay from the recent rains here.
> 
> ADI for the win !




rambling

if you talk to the jvp they disagree, they believe that only this forum and one other is solely the reason for anyone in the counties knowing about the play..

its a point i absolutely disagree with as i am certain the many websites and blogs set up in the us specifically for landowners have far more data and info that is relevant to the landowners.

i do agree that not discussing lease prices on this forum is really important, as we all know there are many factors in the region that change the bid prices of the offers. 

but there is not a single landowner in any of the counties that doesnt know whats going down..

my own view of conoco thumbing their noses at the landowners and  constantly reminding everyone how cheap they got their leases in their presentation doesnt help in any way.. but thats a point the falls on deaf ears with thsi jvp.. they believe i am to blame!!  lol

rambling you and i both know what prices are happening, much as choppy and others do, but that does zip for the adi share right now.

but in dewitt where you are its sure looking good..


----------



## Ramblin Round

That's pretty comical for the JVP to blame only two forums for the entire knowledge of what people know. This being in a region funded by oilfield economics to begin with. Word gets out. My comment to the JVP is this........can you picture a bunch of 60-80 year old ranchers and landowners sitting around tooling on the internet ? No. They're out haying and feeding cows. Word gets out no matter what you do. It's always been like that. Discretion is only going to work so far until the game heats up. For example, one of my lease offers presented thier Eagle Ford project at an investor's convention. After their offer to me I simply go to the energy company's website and find their recent plays and their projections for future plays. It would be foolish to blame a public forum for info that is already out there for anyone to find.  

Perhaps just blame the internet in general. That would be more fair. The invention of the internet has changed persuasion of politics, negotiating knowledge for car sales, knwoledge of who you are dating, and knowledge of healthcare to find out if your doctor is doing a good job or not. Tell the JVP that the oilfield is not exempt from the way the internet has changed the world either.

ADI and holding.


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Here are a couple very recent Eagle Ford Blogs.  Both very informative and show local/US industry  interest.  

http://eaglefordshaleblog.com/

http://info.drillinginfo.com/urb/eagleford/

I've been a bit active on gohaynesvilleshale.com talking Eagle Ford.  A separate Eagle Ford thread was opened yesterday and already 67 members:  http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/group/eaglefordshale.  More local interest.

Also, this month EOG got TRCC approval for temporary field rules for Eagleville (Eagle Ford) in Karnes County.   

Temporary Field Rules:  http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/meetings/ogpfd/ogpofldrules/02-64010-frl_000.pdf

Examiners Report:  http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/meetings/ogpfd/ogpofldrules/02-64010-frl.pdf

What's up whit dat?  Would appreciate input on the field rules from a land owners perspective.

I drive by the Dan Hughes and EOG rigs on FM 791 (west of Falls City) every week to check the rain gauge, etc.  Like Ramblin' I see a lot of activity.  

My sense is that the bonus and royalty paid to land owners have improved considerably in the past six months.  

TK


----------



## tomcat

Hartleys Update:

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys Broker Report 26 March 2010.pdf

ADELPHI ENERGY LTD

What happened?

Adelphi Energy has reported sustained average 30 day flow rates from its
first two wells at its Sugarloaf project onshore USA. The Kennedy #1H well
has averaged 11.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day* (“mmcfe/d”)
and the Weston #1H well has recorded average 30 day production of
11.4mmcfe/d. These results have been achieved without the benefit of
installation of production tubing, which has been indicated in nearby wells to
result in a decrease in initial decline.

The Company has also reported that it now has three additional wells in the
process of being drilled or fracture stimulated.
ADI is free carried through the current work program.

What does it mean?

At these rates, we estimate that each well is making US$50k-US$65k in
revenue per day, with combined revenue from both wells grossing estimated
US$3-4m in the first 30 days. We calculate that the average gas /
condensate production per well is 3.75 million cubic feet of gas per day with
615 barrels of condensate per day (flow rates will decline significantly in the
first year). With well costs estimated at US$6-8m, payback should be
achieved within 5-8 months.

It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
of gas equivalent. *We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps*.

Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the
technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90%
chance of success).

Hartleys Initial View

*We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.

If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months)
continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation 
for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by 
our unrisked valuation of 188cps.*

*mcfe is calculated using a 12:1 conversion ratio for gas / condensate 
and a 25% uplift in gas equivalent volume due to high calorific value 
of the produced gas


----------



## bart9

Are these for real numbers?...I went back to the RRC...no production has been reported there on the Weston....I posted the plot of the Kennedy 1H DAILY RATES..the RRC reports MONTHLY GAS in mcf / CONDENSATE in barrels.....the average day rate for Jan 2010 was: 667 mcf and  120 bc. At your $80 /BO and $4/mcf thats $12,268 per day, or $380,308 per month in Jan 2010 / NRI 75% = $210,231 net to payout $6M in 28 months.....what wrong with the numbers??? The bottom scale in years ...Jan 2010 is the last data point posted.


----------



## Agie82

Hey Ramblin, you are exactly right.  Over here in Gonzales, the only activity is still limited to about a mile north of Cheapside on the Marshall lease and the Cusack-Clampit lease.  Looks like they have completed 4 on the Marshall and have one more new location to drill and completed one and are drilling on the 2nd on Cusack.  Must have promise  on the 1st well, because they filed for a 5th permit last week.  But this limited activity sure doesn't curtail the talk at the Dairy Queen or the auction barn.  Most of those guys couldn't turn on a computer, much less blog, but they sure know where the wells are being staked and who's land just came out of lease and who is getting $1500 acre lease on that land that came open.  Tax accountants talking to local roughnecks all say it is moving north into our areas from Karnes.  Who knows, but it is sure fun watching.  Oh, and whoever it was that asked about the location of Boerne, about 150 miles west, northwest of this action.


----------



## Agentm

tomcat said:


> Hartleys Update:
> 
> http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys Broker Report 26 March 2010.pdf
> 
> ADELPHI ENERGY LTD
> 
> What happened?
> 
> Adelphi Energy has reported sustained average 30 day flow rates from its
> first two wells at its Sugarloaf project onshore USA. The Kennedy #1H well
> has averaged 11.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day* (“mmcfe/d”)
> and the Weston #1H well has recorded average 30 day production of
> 11.4mmcfe/d. These results have been achieved without the benefit of
> installation of production tubing, which has been indicated in nearby wells to
> result in a decrease in initial decline.
> 
> The Company has also reported that it now has three additional wells in the
> process of being drilled or fracture stimulated.
> ADI is free carried through the current work program.
> 
> What does it mean?
> 
> At these rates, we estimate that each well is making US$50k-US$65k in
> revenue per day, with combined revenue from both wells grossing estimated
> US$3-4m in the first 30 days. We calculate that the average gas /
> condensate production per well is 3.75 million cubic feet of gas per day with
> 615 barrels of condensate per day (flow rates will decline significantly in the
> first year). With well costs estimated at US$6-8m, payback should be
> achieved within 5-8 months.
> 
> It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
> has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
> well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
> equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
> well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
> of gas equivalent. *We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
> prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
> calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
> At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps*.
> 
> Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
> wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the
> technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
> wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90%
> chance of success).
> 
> Hartleys Initial View
> 
> *We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
> from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
> surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
> the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
> short term price target of 45cps.
> 
> If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months)
> continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation
> for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by
> our unrisked valuation of 188cps.*
> 
> *mcfe is calculated using a 12:1 conversion ratio for gas / condensate
> and a 25% uplift in gas equivalent volume due to high calorific value
> of the produced gas





*It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent.*

i have been criticised for saying exactly what harleys just said here by many here in aus and also from our state side friends. but i think after what petrohawk said on blackhawk, the  penny is drooping for many now.. hope you invested accordingly

imho ready for takeoff!!


----------



## Simon29

I have topped up numerous times when the sp was in the teens and then told myself that I had enough. However, reading this latest report has tipped me over the edge and I will be buying some more tomorrow (hopefully for under 30c). I don't see how people can doubt this story for much longer.


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> That's pretty comical for the JVP to blame only two forums for the entire knowledge of what people know. This being in a region funded by oilfield economics to begin with. Word gets out. My comment to the JVP is this........can you picture a bunch of 60-80 year old ranchers and landowners sitting around tooling on the internet ? No. They're out haying and feeding cows. Word gets out no matter what you do. It's always been like that. Discretion is only going to work so far until the game heats up. For example, one of my lease offers presented thier Eagle Ford project at an investor's convention. After their offer to me I simply go to the energy company's website and find their recent plays and their projections for future plays. It would be foolish to blame a public forum for info that is already out there for anyone to find.
> 
> Perhaps just blame the internet in general. That would be more fair. The invention of the internet has changed persuasion of politics, negotiating knowledge for car sales, knwoledge of who you are dating, and knowledge of healthcare to find out if your doctor is doing a good job or not. Tell the JVP that the oilfield is not exempt from the way the internet has changed the world either.
> 
> ADI and holding.




i think thats a fair comment ramblin


its been a long time for the shareholders of the jvp to wait for the play to be finally drilled and exploited.

there has been considerable costs for all the major holders who across all jvp partners have actively placed their capital into the partnerships and supported further capital raisings to realise their initial investment.

i have supported many cap raisings, and been an active contributor for the information flow on regional activities, and always had a very pro adi stance on the share throughout

i also dove in and purchased many shares on offer during the hibernation phase of the gfc, where a major holder had to release their adi holdings. imho many would have thought about and also actively purchased during that phase, as its not often you get volumes on adi during the falls in the sp. historically there was always small volumes.. but the opportunity was there for many to take advantage of. no one is complaining about that.

i am heartened to see a hartley report conservatively  revising the adi share. and i look forward to aut and eka also doing so, surely their respective brokers are long overdue on commenting on their respective shares?


shell arrives in the eagleford shale!!

Shell raises natural gas stake with S. Texas lease

shell has 150,000 acres in the shale now they announced

the chronicle reports this:

*“It’s time for Shell to step out and show what we’ve done in that area,”* Odum told the Chronicle in an interview Friday 



http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2010/03/27/shell-raises-natural-gas-stake-with-s-texas-lease/


so with exxon, bp conoco shell all in the play, how the heck are they expecting this one to be kept quiet?


----------



## estseon

Rambling

ASF and Hotcopper are not the only discussion boards.

How about this one?

http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/group/eaglefordshale/forum

Courtesy Golde on ADVFN


----------



## estseon

Not wishing to labour a point, but is the guy who wrote this some naive cattle farmer who'd jump at and offer of $100/acre for all horizons?

"i just reread my comment per my preferred lease -- and the releasing of zones and horizons..what i meant to say more precisely was this --- after the expiration of the primary term of my lease, i want all zones and horizons released back to me save and except those zones presently producing and selling commercial quantities of either oil and gas, or both..you can get into a catfight w an operator here in a heartbeat, when the operator knows going in, he's likely to have stacked pay in both the haynesville shale and the middle bossier shale..he can argue justifiably, i drilled this well and am entitled to produce the haynesville, and the come up hole later and produce the bossier..and, i would agree with that, and then clarify that..i'd say ok, you got it..you've earned the middle bossier and haynesville..but you release back to me everything 100 ft above and 100 ft below those zones, after primary term expires..you have to allow them that and possibly slightly more, that's ok..or, whatever that concept requires vis a vis pertinent geological and regulatory requirements..it does vary in zones, and situations..but that is what i tell my attorney conceptually to achieve, whenever possible..to sum it up, avoid getting your minerals needlessly held by production whenever possible from a single producing zone..and tying up you property infinitum, ad nauseum..also, you want only what's to be held, from that particular producing proration unit..remember -- depth restrictions, and pugh clauses are concepts you can't ignore or over-research.."


----------



## Kremmen

We seem to be following the pattern of last month's rises. AUT starts first (last week), then ADI starts to follow, while EKA sits still and waits to see what everyone else does.


----------



## Agentm

bart9 said:


> Are these for real numbers?...I went back to the RRC...no production has been reported there on the Weston....I posted the plot of the Kennedy 1H DAILY RATES..the RRC reports MONTHLY GAS in mcf / CONDENSATE in barrels.....the average day rate for Jan 2010 was: 667 mcf and  120 bc. At your $80 /BO and $4/mcf thats $12,268 per day, or $380,308 per month in Jan 2010 / NRI 75% = $210,231 net to payout $6M in 28 months.....what wrong with the numbers??? The bottom scale in years ...Jan 2010 is the last data point posted.




the well was producing last year on a minifrac in the toe of the well, they did  it just to prove the eagleford would flow.. 

the jan 2010 production figures are for about 3 days in jan after a massive slick water frac.. so dont extrapolate it out for a an average of a month, it simply didnt flow all month, only a few days cleaning up after the frac..

hope it helps..

btw  wait 3 weeks then look at the feb flow rates, it will be for a solid 4 weeks on a 7 inch liner.  remember the well has yet to have a production string put in place, im mcmullen county they put in a production string after a long while and the eagleford well increased in flow some 30% from memory

cheers


----------



## Agentm

absolutely amazing  commentary from conoco researched by saf

COP transcript on their site.
Extremely interesting final point from Larry Archibald SVP Exploration namely.-

“…*but what we haven't talked about much is equally interesting.
Stacked over most of our Eagle Ford acreage is a beautiful Austin Chalk play. We've drilled some laterals in the Austin Chalk and achieved exceptional rates, good liquids content in the Austin Chalk as well. So, I expect we'll be exploiting that play for a decade later; after we're done with the Eagle Ford, coming back and hitting most of the Austin Chalk with laterals*”


F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T
Mar. 24. 2010 / 12:30PM, COP - ConocoPhillips Analyst Meeting

Kevin Meyers - ConocoPhillips - SVP E&P - Americas

“So where are we spending our money in 2010 in lower 48 and Canada onshore? We plan to spend about $1.2 billion in new investment in 2010 in this area, and our focus areas really are threefold. The first of these is in our shale plays, in particular the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. We look at the Bakken; we continue to get very, very exciting results out of there. Our initial production rates in the Bakken in our recent wells have ranged from 1,800 to 2,400 barrels per day. And, again, that is liquids, so you get excited about those liquid production.
*When you look at the Eagle Ford, we currently have three rigs drilling in the Eagle Ford. We have planned by the next six months to bring on about 15 wells and put them on production. Our most recent well that we tested down there got 4.5 million standard cubic feet per day of gas, and that's a pretty good result in and of itself, but when you add on the fact that we also got 1,800 barrels of liquids, then you start to get really excited. So we're looking at expanding our program there into Eagle Ford and believe it has great promise for us.”*


Larry Archibald - ConocoPhillips - SVP Exploration & BD

*"I'd just reinforce the Eagle Ford. At a time we had such a big position in the Eagle Ford -- we amassed over 300,000 acres in the overall Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford trend, about 240,000 of that in the sweet spot of just the Eagle Ford, the rest of that in the nice Austin Chalk play. We continued to drive down costs and see such good rates that we decided not to flip any of our acreage and we're just ramping up rigs now.
For example, we are in a very oily part of the play relative to some of the competition, Petrohawk and others in a more dry gas part of the play. Last fall, we tested at a rate of about 4.5 million cubic feet a day and 1,800 barrels of condensate per day on tests. So, over 11 million cubic feet equivalent a day, but two-thirds of that liquids.
So, this high liquid content, the high value, is consistent with our strategy of delivering near-term value in the liquid side, and we're adding rigs to the play, and really focused on Eagle Ford now, but what we haven't talked about much is equally interesting.
Stacked over most of our Eagle Ford acreage is a beautiful Austin Chalk play. We've drilled some laterals in the Austin Chalk and achieved exceptional rates, good liquids content in the Austin Chalk as well. So, I expect we'll be exploiting that play for a decade later; after we're done with the Eagle Ford, coming back and hitting most of the Austin Chalk with laterals."*

http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/in...ts/RevisedCOP-Transcript-2010-03-24T12_30.pdf


----------



## estseon

"So, I expect we'll be exploiting that play for a decade later; after we're done with the Eagle Ford, coming back and hitting most of the Austin Chalk with laterals"

That's odd - Hilcorp are planning to tap both horizons in our new wells


----------



## mir

estseon
i wondered about  that myself ? i would be taking my computer on holidays with me if i was you, things are getting interesting lol. have a great holiday.


----------



## Agentm

check this out

from another forum posted by doodle

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/globenewswire/187646.htm

Meridian also announced today that it has been provided preliminary information regarding an Eagle Ford well drilled by a third party on acreage in Karnes County, Texas in which Meridian owns a 2% over-riding royalty interest. This information indicates that the well, which was first tested on March 10, 2010, has been testing continuously since March 14, 2010 on a 14/64th inch choke at a rate between 1,300 and 1,550 barrels of oil per day and about 1.2 million cubic feet of natural gas per day with initial flowing casing pressure of 5,250 pounds declining to 4,270 pounds as of March 26th. The oil has a gravity measured in the field between 46 and 49 API. The well was drilled to a measured depth of approximately 17,340 feet (about 11,900 feet TVD at end of lateral) with a horizontal lateral of about 5,000 feet in the Eagle Ford. The well was completed with a 15 stage fracture treatment. It is possible that, if this well is a successful discovery, subsequent development may occur in Meridian's Karnes County acreage. Based on the information received to date, Meridian cannot give any assurance regarding the significance of the well, its anticipated decline rate and associated future production, or what impact it may have on our future reserve values.


talk about staggering results in the region..!!


----------



## Agentm

rio grande rig is up on site 

i hear that murphy well drees 1h that meridian reported on yesterday (see previous post) is flaring hard on dual flare towers


----------



## bazollie

According to the latest update from ADI , there is 2 (possibly the most important and largest ) Fracs about to commence. The share price heads south?? 

I know that it will be about 2 weeks after commencement of these fracs before any news will be at hand. 

Maybe all the investors have taken off early on holidays??

I cannot understand why the share price wallows ( is that a word? ) at these levels! 

Any ideas from anyone why adi doesn't seem attractive at the moment?

I still hold although sometimes I wonder why,

Bazollie

Happy and Safe Easter to all !


----------



## Sdajii

It's reasonably small volume, maybe a small number of people have just decided to sell on the speculation, or maybe some people are sticking to old plans about selling on the speculation rather than the result, or maybe a couple of investors lost their day jobs and need the money at any cost, or just bought houses and need to raise funds for deposits, or maybe some people think the results in a few weeks won't be as good as generally anticipated, or maybe the market is just being its usual weird self and not making sense.

Very likely, there will be lots of people nervous about holding and eager to sell, because keep in mind a lot of people bought in below 20c and anything could set them off to lock in profits. I bought in under 20c, but for better or worse topped up recently at just under 30, despite human psychology urging the opposite.

Or maybe it's most likely that the market is responding to Agentm's April entry for the ASF stock tipping competition.

Seems like an exciting time to me, and I'm happy to be holding right now.


----------



## Agentm

Sdajii said:


> It's reasonably small volume, maybe a small number of people have just decided to sell on the speculation, or maybe some people are sticking to old plans about selling on the speculation rather than the result, or maybe a couple of investors lost their day jobs and need the money at any cost, or just bought houses and need to raise funds for deposits, or maybe some people think the results in a few weeks won't be as good as generally anticipated, or maybe the market is just being its usual weird self and not making sense.
> 
> Very likely, there will be lots of people nervous about holding and eager to sell, because keep in mind a lot of people bought in below 20c and anything could set them off to lock in profits. I bought in under 20c, but for better or worse topped up recently at just under 30, despite human psychology urging the opposite.
> 
> Or maybe it's most likely that the market is responding to Agentm's April entry for the ASF stock tipping competition.
> 
> Seems like an exciting time to me, and I'm happy to be holding right now.




lol

i doubt anyone reads anything into stock market comps. i was looking for a long shot there..

as i posted on the the thread, i though adi could double on good results, but i like sbr a heck of a lot.  i also like aut.. imho a very very undervalued share, but i keep a vast holding in adi right now as before.

in hindsight i understand with sbr that only border is being drilled not kaskara (too wet to get in)  but they are going to drill the anomalies at border, which is where some serious upside can happen. sbr could be another cdu but sbr would be like a monster on steroids in comparison


----------



## Sdajii

Agentm said:


> lol
> i doubt anyone reads anything into stock market comps. i was looking for a long shot there..




I'm sure there aren't many, but I hoped to get a laugh from anyone who does, and it looks like I got at least one 

I must admit I was surprised at your tip, and would have taken ADI myself except that I would have thought that even though I beat you to it I'd be rude to grab it away from you. I'm still happy with EKA though. Those fracs could really trigger some action.


----------



## Agentm

still busy in the eagelford


rancho grande from the air








also turnbull well just 6000 feet north on the longhorn acreages


----------



## Ramblin Round

Happy days are here again for Adelphi. With the JVP almost in full swing towards pipelining the product we should be experiencing accellerated production in no time.


----------



## Agentm

rambling

north of you in gonzales a private company is buying up big time..

any one guessing who it may be?

Lucas Energy inches forth in Eagle Ford venture

*Houston-based independent Lucas Energy has signed the purchase and sale agreement of the previously announced letter of intent for a new joint venture with a large, privately-owned, oil and gas company.*

Upstream staff  06 April 2010 18:46 GMT

The purchase and sale agreement is binding but is subject to determination of the actual acreage to be conveyed and the actual closing which is anticipated to be completed prior to 30 April.

Further details will be available after closing, the company said in a statement.

The purpose of the proposed joint venture is the development of the Eagle Ford Shale properties owned by Lucas Energy in Gonzales County, Texas.


----------



## condog

Absolutely no idea, but all this M&A  activity is justified and adding to the hype and hysteria surrounding the Eagleford.


----------



## Lucky_Country

How long will our jvp stay independant ?

All look like serious takeover targets to an American entity.


----------



## choppy

Agentm said:


> north of you in gonzales a private company is buying up big time..
> 
> any one guessing who it may be?
> 
> Lucas Energy inches forth in Eagle Ford venture
> 
> *Houston-based independent Lucas Energy has signed the purchase and sale agreement of the previously announced letter of intent for a new joint venture with a large, privately-owned, oil and gas company*



*

I got my money on Hillcorp as the Lucas acreage buyer.  They are the only private company I can think of off hand with those kind of $$$$.*


----------



## Agie82

Choppy, you may be right.  Our land is located in Wrightsboro, about halfway between Smiley and Gonzales.  We received a registered letter from Hilcorp wanting to lease our property for 500 per acre.  Really sorry we are about to enter our 3rd year of a 3 year lease.  I would say we are in a good zone, but I would also say Hilcorp may be the Lucas partner as Lucus is very active re-entering old chalk wells in this area or we may have several players coming into the area.  We know EOG is the big player on the Gonzales-Dewitt county line as there is a lot of activity in and around Westhoff.  Counted 4 rigs within 5 miles of there last Saturday.


----------



## jancha

Certainly lots of activity & talk going on around the vicinity but very little with ADI to have little friends of interest. Unless everyone is sitting on the fence waiting for something to happen but when a positive announcement does come out the sp seems to go nowhere but slightly down if anything.
Why the lack of interest when the the opposite can be said for the region?


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Certainly lots of activity & talk going on around the vicinity but very little with ADI to have little friends of interest. Unless everyone is sitting on the fence waiting for something to happen but when a positive announcement does come out the sp seems to go nowhere but slightly down if anything.
> Why the lack of interest when the the opposite can be said for the region?




people posting regional info is just how it goes, i know of no other thread anywhere on any forum that holds the level of regional info that this one does..

there are certainly plenty of specific blogs out there that are directly dealing with the eagleford and the leasing issues etc.. but this site is not about the leases, its about adi..

the lucas deal means a lot, it indicates the serious  commitment that hilcorp quite possibly are involved in.. my view is that the news items i post are relevant to the adi share as its blatantly obvious to me that there is yet to be any significant value attributed to the jvp thus far to what i consider to be world class play..

no one is getting it right now, the comments from conoco recently are being ignored also imho..

but imho they are absolutely spot on

F I N A L T R A N S C R I P T
Mar. 24. 2010 / 12:30PM, COP - ConocoPhillips Analyst Meeting

Kevin Meyers - ConocoPhillips - SVP E&P - Americas

“So where are we spending our money in 2010 in lower 48 and Canada onshore? We plan to spend about $1.2 billion in new investment in 2010 in this area, and our focus areas really are threefold. The first of these is in our shale plays, in particular the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. We look at the Bakken; we continue to get very, very exciting results out of there. Our initial production rates in the Bakken in our recent wells have ranged from 1,800 to 2,400 barrels per day. And, again, that is liquids, so you get excited about those liquid production.
When you look at the Eagle Ford, we currently have three rigs drilling in the Eagle Ford. We have planned by the next six months to bring on about 15 wells and put them on production. Our most recent well that we tested down there got 4.5 million standard cubic feet per day of gas, and that's a pretty good result in and of itself, but when you add on the fact that we also got 1,800 barrels of liquids, then you start to get really excited. So we're looking at expanding our program there into Eagle Ford and believe it has great promise for us.”


Larry Archibald - ConocoPhillips - SVP Exploration & BD

"I'd just reinforce the Eagle Ford. At a time we had such a big position in the Eagle Ford -- we amassed over 300,000 acres in the overall Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford trend, about 240,000 of that in the sweet spot of just the Eagle Ford, the rest of that in the nice Austin Chalk play. We continued to drive down costs and see such good rates that we decided not to flip any of our acreage and we're just ramping up rigs now.
*For example, we are in a very oily part of the play relative to some of the competition, Petrohawk and others in a more dry gas part of the play. Last fall, we tested at a rate of about 4.5 million cubic feet a day and 1,800 barrels of condensate per day on tests. So, over 11 million cubic feet equivalent a day, but two-thirds of that liquids.
So, this high liquid content, the high value, is consistent with our strategy of delivering near-term value in the liquid side, and we're adding rigs to the play, and really focused on Eagle Ford now, but what we haven't talked about much is equally interesting.
Stacked over most of our Eagle Ford acreage is a beautiful Austin Chalk play. We've drilled some laterals in the Austin Chalk and achieved exceptional rates, good liquids content in the Austin Chalk as well. So, I expect we'll be exploiting that play for a decade later; after we're done with the Eagle Ford, coming back and hitting most of the Austin Chalk with laterals."
*
http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/inv...3-24T12_30.pdf


----------



## jancha

Exactly my point Agentm.
All strong positive news. Even Hartleys recommendation was upgraded recently so i cant see how or why ADI just sits in limbo.
What possibly more would it take for the likes of ADI to head north with all the positive sentiment & interest out there? 
Rambling: When you stated happy days are here again.
What happy days are you referring to or are talking about the land owners in the area?


----------



## Bilja

Is anyone able to provide some sort of rational explanation as to why the SP seems to flounder and even drop after a positive announcement??

I just cannot seem to understand what is going on and why we have not seem continual incremental increases in SP on the back of the latest positive announcements....heading towards the well know Hartley's estimates.....


----------



## Agentm

imho if the price flounders, and you see the value, then perhaps its a perfect time to accumulate.

its not like there is any volume in the share atm, so i see it as before in the groundhog days, one day up, one day down..

imho tomorrow will be a very interesting day again, eog will be coming out with a lot of data on their eagleford play, and they have many wells in operation just north of kowalik and rancho and turnbull.

that will impact aut dramatically as eog are next to their acreages..

hilcorp recently presented their eagleford position recently and are obviously keen to let everyone know what they have got also.

http://www.ugcenter.com/Shales/US/EagleFord/item54518.php

imho all positive news really


----------



## philly

maybe there is a bit too much happening ATM!
After Hilcorp completes its committment in the sugarloaf [ 3 fractures and 3 drills] it has to then drill another 7 wells to get its share of AUT. And if Hilcorp is the rumoured buyer of Lucas leases then it more work to do there. If you add this to the workload of the other big players in the zone then everyone is just falling over each other in an attempt to get things done. In the end there must be order and some wells will be drilled first and others later. ATM the picture with ADI is clear and the results are not far away thereafter there may be some delay as to when the next wells commence. In the meantime some may choose to move out of ADI and into AUT and then back or elsewhere and some will sit tight. All of this action will impact on the SP.


----------



## Bwanablue

The EOG presentation on the South Texas Eagle Ford portion of their holdings is available on their website for download now, and I must say, they have "opened the kimono".

Easily the most detailed analysis of the play that I've seen so far.
If this presentation doesn't get your blood pumping, nothing will.

I don't have enough posts to post a link, but it's easy to find in the Investor Relations section of EOG Resources' website.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Happy days because ADI stocks went up a few cents yesterday, that's why. : But also the activity around here has been white hot. Petrohawk and GeoSouthern seem to be working very heavily together on the Eagle Ford play. The pipeline projects are moving right along and the gas being produced is so pure they won't mix it wth other pipelines. They want one just for this gas. As for leasing activity ? Two old tyme "town hall" meetings were locally hosted last week by two of the major players in this field due to all of the lease activity and discussions from landowners. I haven't seen anything like this since the oil boom of the 1900's. Crazy stuff.


----------



## Jman2010

Ramblin Round said:


> Happy days because ADI stocks went up a few cents yesterday, that's why. : But also the activity around here has been white hot. Petrohawk and GeoSouthern seem to be working very heavily together on the Eagle Ford play. The pipeline projects are moving right along and the gas being produced is so pure they won't mix it wth other pipelines. They want one just for this gas. As for leasing activity ? Two old tyme "town hall" meetings were locally hosted last week by two of the major players in this field due to all of the lease activity and discussions from landowners. I haven't seen anything like this since the oil boom of the 1900's. Crazy stuff.





Petrohawk and Geo have a deal where Petrohawk operates the wells until they go to sales then Geo takes over.


----------



## Ramblin Round

How would this work out on the lease ? Is there a certain way to set up the lease or is it all transparant to the landowner ?


----------



## Agentm

EOG Announces Significant South Texas Eagle Ford Horizontal Crude Oil Discovery

In South Texas, EOG has accumulated acreage across six counties in the Eagle Ford Play where it has drilled 16 delineation wells over a 120 mile trend. Based on initial drilling and production results, as well as technical and core analysis, the estimated reserve potential on EOG's 505,000 net acre position in the oil window is approximately 900 million barrels of crude oil equivalent (MMboe), net after royalty (NAR). Development of this high rate-of-return crude oil play is underway with the first significant production impact projected for 2011.



*“We believe the South Texas Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil play will prove to be one of the most significant United States oil discoveries in the past 40 years," said Papa.*

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...0-analyst-conference-highlights-90075512.html


----------



## Ramblin Round

At an average of say 80US/barrell that would be 72 billion dollars worth of oil. Talk about a big discovery now _that's _a big discovery.


----------



## Agentm

the presentation is a must read imho

http://www.eogresources.com/media/slides/ac_st0410.pdf

slides like this put the hartleys comment on the play being totally derisked into perspective

"We interpret the key remaining risk to be operational"

"Hartleys Initial View
*We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.*
If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps."


----------



## condog

Ramblin Round said:


> At an average of say 80US/barrell that would be 72 billion dollars worth of oil. Talk about a big discovery now _that's _a big discovery.




Hey agent thanks for all the updates. 

Ramblin I think most are working on an IRR of 55% - 65% per well from memory so around 45Billion or so. Still a damn big return on investment.


----------



## jestex12

Nice EOG map Agentm!!  This Map gives a great snap-shot of what's happening in South Texas and why all the big players are there.


----------



## Agentm

jestex12 said:


> Nice EOG map Agentm!!  This Map gives a great snap-shot of what's happening in South Texas and why all the big players are there.






Agentm said:


> the presentation is a must read imho
> 
> http://www.eogresources.com/media/slides/ac_st0410.pdf
> 
> slides like this put the hartleys comment on the play being totally derisked into perspective
> 
> "We interpret the key remaining risk to be operational"
> 
> "Hartleys Initial View
> *We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
> from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
> surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
> the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
> short term price target of 45cps.*
> If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps."




if your looking at the reserves tht eog give for the darlene well, just a few clicks north of the kowalik and rancho grande wells, then your starting to see why i invested in this oil and gas play

eog are saying this today about it, a huge statement imho

*“We believe the South Texas Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil play will prove to be one of the most significant United States oil discoveries in the past 40 years," said Papa.
*


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Personally pleased with the EOG report overall, as was the intended audience--Wall Street.  Was hoping for proven undeveloped reserves, but must be content with estimated sixth largest US field of all time displacing East Texas Field of the 1930's (Spindletop). Can another E&G “top” EOGs “spin.”  Papa’s team did a great job!  

Hillcorp Turnbull horizontal 6 t0 7 miles south east of Lyssy/Orr wells so will be interested along with ADI holders in the IP there.   

Disappointed that EOG didn't report anything on the Lyssy/Orr wells, but then again they didn't really get started until January of 2010. Lyssy 1-H approved in September of 2009, but a problem with I-H, then sidetrack proposed, then they started over apparently in January 2010.  EOG has been “getting busy” there ever since.  Was down FM 791 last week.  Appeared to me the Orr 2-H pad is ready to go with Orr 1-H drilling away in the background.  Have heard good things about Lyssy/Orr.

, TK


----------



## Hatchy

Ramblin Round said:


> I haven't seen anything like this since the oil boom of the 1900's. Crazy stuff.




You were around to see the oil boom of the 1900's? That'd make you at least 100 years old!

Happy days to be had soon.... I'll make back that 80c I paid a few years back, I can feel it in my bones.


----------



## Agentm

Tordilla Kid said:


> Personally pleased with the EOG report overall, as was the intended audience--Wall Street.  Was hoping for proven undeveloped reserves, but must be content with estimated sixth largest US field of all time displacing East Texas Field of the 1930's (Spindletop). Can another E&G “top” EOGs “spin.”  Papa’s team did a great job!
> 
> Hillcorp Turnbull horizontal 6 t0 7 miles south east of Lyssy/Orr wells so will be interested along with ADI holders in the IP there.
> 
> Disappointed that EOG didn't report anything on the Lyssy/Orr wells, but then again they didn't really get started until January of 2010. Lyssy 1-H approved in September of 2009, but a problem with I-H, then sidetrack proposed, then they started over apparently in January 2010.  EOG has been “getting busy” there ever since.  Was down FM 791 last week.  Appeared to me the Orr 2-H pad is ready to go with Orr 1-H drilling away in the background.  Have heard good things about Lyssy/Orr.
> 
> , TK




i think the lyssy wells are too close to be reported on, as you and i know they had serious trouble with the first, and then the side track, then drilled a clean well right next to it.

the dab hughes darlene well was exceptional, and no one is commenting on that in any forum over here,,

imho still completely misunderstood by and large over here, and the jvp has serious upside potential with 3 wells to be opened up any day on the AMI acreages and a further well turnbull to be opened up in longhorn

as hartleys said

It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
of gas equivalent. We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps.

Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the
technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90%
chance of success).

Hartleys Initial View

We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.
*If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps.*


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> i think the lyssy wells are too close to be reported on, as you and i know they had serious trouble with the first, and then the side track, then drilled a clean well right next to it.
> 
> the dab hughes darlene well was exceptional, and no one is commenting on that in any forum over here,,
> 
> imho still completely misunderstood by and large over here, and the jvp has serious upside potential with 3 wells to be opened up any day on the AMI acreages and a further well turnbull to be opened up in longhorn
> 
> as hartleys said
> 
> It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
> has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
> well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
> equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
> well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
> of gas equivalent. We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
> prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
> calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
> At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps.
> 
> Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
> wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the
> technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
> wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90%
> chance of success).
> 
> Hartleys Initial View
> 
> We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
> from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
> surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
> the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
> short term price target of 45cps.
> *If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps.*




That is a big confidence booster coming from Hartleys.
They even talk about the price of oil ratio with ADI with oil at US$100.
Also positive on oil price and yet ADI still seems stagnant atm.
Noticed that AUT have admirers with larger trading volume and an increase in sp.
Would that be because of their growth potential where as ADI have limited acreage in the play?


----------



## sam76

jancha said:


> That is a big confidence booster coming from Hartleys.
> They even talk about the price of oil ratio with ADI with oil at US$100.
> Also positive on oil price and yet ADI still seems stagnant atm.
> Noticed that AUT have admirers with larger trading volume and an increase in sp.
> Would that be because of their growth potential where as ADI have limited acreage in the play?





A lot of the AUT interest would come from broker support. Something ADI doesn't have........................


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> That is a big confidence booster coming from Hartleys.
> They even talk about the price of oil ratio with ADI with oil at US$100.
> Also positive on oil price and yet ADI still seems stagnant atm.
> Noticed that AUT have admirers with larger trading volume and an increase in sp.
> Would that be because of their growth potential where as ADI have limited acreage in the play?




jancha

if you do the costings on 10% of 23,000 acres you will be blown away on how that can be managed. i think your underestimating the potential value considerably

adi is not "limited" in any way, it has a very handy holding in the acreages

there are other players with very substantial holdings in the oil belt that are very "limited", and their ability to run with the acre spacings needed to hold those leases is not even feasible. they simply dont have the capital, nor even the management expertise to delver a project of that size, so selling would be the only option for them but getting those wells in and keeping the acres would be critical also.

aut has extended acreages, but be very weary of how those acres can be managed. great upside as they have free carried wells and cash in hand

major companies are coming in with larger positions, but they have the capital and know how to successfully carry it off.

if you overextend into these acreages your also needing to be mindful of the consequences of how to hold those acreages.

 all imho and dyor


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> jancha
> 
> if you do the costings on 10% of 23,000 acres you will be blown away on how that can be managed. i think your underestimating the potential value considerably
> 
> adi is not "limited" in any way, it has a very handy holding in the acreages
> 
> there are other players with very substantial holdings in the oil belt that are very "limited", and their ability to run with the acre spacings needed to hold those leases is not even feasible. they simply dont have the capital, nor even the management expertise to delver a project of that size, so selling would be the only option for them but getting those wells in and keeping the acres would be critical also.
> 
> aut has extended acreages, but be very weary of how those acres can be managed. great upside as they have free carried wells and cash in hand
> 
> major companies are coming in with larger positions, but they have the capital and know how to successfully carry it off.
> 
> if you overextend into these acreages your also needing to be mindful of the consequences of how to hold those acreages.
> 
> all imho and dyor




I understand what your saying Agentm & all makes good sense but i was querying the difference in interest with the two companies AUT & ADI. 
AUT seems to have more volume an interest with the sp going up where as ADI has little interest and sp flat.
Sam76 said that AUT has broker support but with 29 buyers & 9 sellers and a volume of 1.1mil buying & 365k selling it seems more than just broker support. 
(Public in general seem to be more interested in AUT).
ADI on the other hand has 25 buyers & 30 sellers with a volume of 640 buying & 910 selling.
If as Sam76 said AUT has more broker support then why doesn't ADI have the same broker support?
Dont quite understand why the 2 would vary so much unless it's to do with the acreages that AUT hold as opposed to the ones that ADI hold.


----------



## adobee

sam76 said:


> A lot of the AUT interest would come from broker support. Something ADI doesn't have........................




With reference to above which brokers are covering AUT in comparison to ADI ? I am aware of Hartleys & pattersons.. who else is doing any research on these ?


----------



## WRONG'UN

Of course what we see in the MD is only from people who are prepared to show their hand - I have a feeling that if and when the sps of ADI and AUT decide to run again, there won't be much advertising in the buy queue.


----------



## condog

Wronun I agree - If AUt slips i will wait for right volume and smack on without warning, as i would expect others to do if they want in. I want many more and my buy is not sitting in that cue yet.

with reference to brokers. TBOMK only pattersons are covering AUT. Hartleys are covering ADI.

With reference to buy sell spreads. Over the last few months when drilling was only in the JVP AMI, ADI consistently out performed AUT in terms of relative price to either acerage or boe estimated reserves. ADI also had far better volumes and buy sell spreads.

Only since Longhorn was announced has AUT started to perform and rightly so , given the value those extra free carried wells will create.

This wont be popular, but its my honest assessment, rightly or wrongly. In the short term i expect EKA and ADI to flounder relative to AUT until flows are released, then they should kick up a bit. But your kidding yourself if you think ADI can keep pace with AUT in the short term with those wells, which are not only free, but higher interest and potentially Longhorn ones will be very oilly or condensate rich. 

Dont get me wrong ADI is a fantastic investment and will do exceptionally well, but not relative to AUT in 2010. 2011 may be a different story, but 2010 is a no brainer.


----------



## philly

condog said:


> This wont be popular, but its my honest assessment, rightly or wrongly. In the short term i expect EKA and ADI to flounder relative to AUT until flows are released, then they should kick up a bit. But your kidding yourself if you think ADI can keep pace with AUT in the short term with those wells, which are not only free, but higher interest and potentially Longhorn ones will be very oilly or condensate rich.
> 
> Dont get me wrong ADI is a fantastic investment and will do exceptionally well, but not relative to AUT in 2010. 2011 may be a different story, but 2010 is a no brainer.




Hi Condog, 
I hold ADI and I agree with your "unpopular" assessment regarding ADI v AUT v EKA. In the short term AUT seems to have the greater upside as it is free carried for 7 wells with great potential. We have already seen that Hilcorp is an excellent operator so the SP for AUT will get a nice kick along when drilling begins. ATM I'm looking at selling half my ADI shares and buying into AUT. Just my thoughts and DYOR


----------



## mir

philly
I've been in aut & eka from day 1 & have followed very closely.i  have posted many times recently ,imo auts's share price should be 2.5 times adi's & 4 times eka's so what you are considering doing imo is spot on.


----------



## WRONG'UN

So, from a money/risk management point of view, what is the "best" strategy - put 100% of one's Eagle Ford allocation into AUT - or hold two, or all three, in some ratio? And how big a proportion of one's total funds should the Eagle Ford allocation be? And what does "best" mean anyway - is it maximum profit, or is it optimum profit with acceptable risk, or what?
Do your own research and analysis, and make your own decisions, of course. I've made mine.


----------



## Silhouetteau

Can someone help me better understand the Hartley's report.

In it, they state one well is producing 11.4mmcfe/d and this is generating around $50/60k a day.

I was just wondering how they determined the 50/60k?

My rough go at this:
11.4mmcf = 11400 mcf
11400mcf x $4mcf = $45600/d

Can someone help explain why i'm so far off?

Thanks


----------



## mir

silhouetteau
it's not all gas ,70% oil @ $80 &  30% gas @ $4 imo.
redo your calc's on that, 11.4 mmcfe "E" is equivalent .i think when they convert to equivalent they times oil by 10 to 12 times  which only works out at just over $40 per barrel.


----------



## Agie82

Made a run through Cheapside, still EOG still drilling on Clampit 2nd well.  Saw a new pad on Marshall last week, turned out to be tank pad, 20 tanks on pad.  That makes 34 tanks on 2 locations on Marshall. I am sure EOG is using that as central location for Marshall, Clampit, and Brothers, (new location on property about 1/2 mile west of Marshall.  Also saw new rig moving in 6 miles south of Smiley toward Yorktown.  Koenning lease being drill by Riley Resouces.  New name in area.  Also, land owners are being paid for new pipeline coming in from south.  They say it is a right of way for 4 lines, 2 oil, 1 gas, and 1 other condensate.  Keep you informed as we hear other news in Gonzales.


----------



## Agentm

dont let hilcorp and texas know its this good!!

obviously as far as hilcorp is concerned, the locals cant read!!

lol


Pro: Shale gas will be a pivot to the oil and gas industry and regional economy



      In the throes of recession, the oil and gas industry's one silver lining may be the proliferation of natural gas, which is being harvested from underground rock formations across the country.

      In South Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale has been an economic boon to DeWitt County, county and Cuero officials have said.

      Landowners are raking in on lease sales where they had not been leasing in decades, and the presence of the companies in the area is stimulating other sectors.

      And with new well sites appearing and more companies moving in, the industry seems to be taking note of its value.

      But the technique used to recover natural gas from shale rock has come under recent scrutiny.

      Hydraulic fracturing is the subject of controversy in many northern states, where people believe it is contaminating their drinking wells.

      Gas leaks and leaching of fracturing fluids are two potential causes of water contamination cases in Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania, according to reports from ProPublica, an investigative journalism Web site.

      It's perked the eyebrows of the Environmental Protection Agency, which is currently proposing a research approach to study the safety of hydraulic fracturing.

Shale gas: It's the "crown jewel" of the oil and gas industry, said an industry expert.

Travis Windle, spokesman for the energy coalition Energy in Depth, cites colleagues working in the industry as saying shale gas has changed the game.

And the Eagle Ford Shale, a formation of carbon-rich rocks that belts South Texas, may be the newest game changer.

It is especially significant to the Crossroads region, where the appearance of drilling wells has stimulated the economy.

But the micro effects create a macro boom, Windle said.

"While the Eagle Ford is smaller in size, the actual reserves there that have been able to be tapped through hydraulic fractures and horizontal drilling are going to do great things for not only the Texas economy, but also for the country," he said.

The Perryman Group, a economic analysis firm based in Waco, estimated in a 2009 study that the Barnett Shale in North Texas will create about 108,000 jobs annually until 2015.

The same study found that in 2008 Barnett Shale activity was responsible for an estimated $13.7 billion in annual output and 132,497 jobs.

DeWitt County and its residents have reaped benefits from the recent Eagle Ford drilling.

Activity is expected pick up with one gas company expecting to have six active sites in the county this June, County Judge Ben Prause said.

"Apparently, the future's going to be really bright for years," Prause said. "It should be increasing from what we're told."

"It's going to be quite a busy time," he added.

Last year's activity helped reduce taxes and introduced new revenue streams to the county.

Drillings rigs in the county are taxable property. Appraisal value, in general, increases with drilling activity.

The economic benevolence of natural gas drilling has manifested in small rural towns within the Marcellus Shale. This formation spans eight states and extends into Canada and is the second largest natural gas play in the world, Windle said.

In the direst of economic times, natural gas has effected a domino effect, generating jobs in not only the gas industry but other sectors as well, he said.

"The grocery stores, the car dealerships, the contractors, the hotels, the whole gamut - it's pretty neat to see," Windle said.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Front page news right there !! I'm holding one in my hand as we speak. I am so glad I got into this play when I did. This is really exciting stuff !


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> Front page news right there !! I'm holding one in my hand as we speak. I am so glad I got into this play when I did. This is really exciting stuff !




i expect hilcorp will ring that paper and complain bitterly that they are putting out sensitive information on the eagleford that they want no one to know about.

keep in mind that hilcorp believe ALL information on the eagleford that all locals know about comes SOLELY from ME..  lol.. 

could you do me a favour and pull out all the papers from everyones mail box for me immediately, i dont want anyone stealing my  limelight..

i think hilcorp underestimates the intelligence that the communities have in liveoak and karnes and dewitt..  my view is that playing that card will backfire on them..


lol


----------



## Ramblin Round

What's worse is how fast the hippies get ahold of this and use it against the oil/gas industry. Rubbish !

http://txsharon.blogspot.com/


----------



## Agentm

crimson has some acreages south of the conoco and adi acreages in bee county

this press release a few hours back

South Texas - Eagle Ford Shale

Crimson and its partners are nearing completion of strategic plans for the pursuit of the Eagle Ford Shale in our Bee County acreage. We own a 40% working interest in approximately 2,800 acres in the area. Plans likely will include the commencement of a horizontal well during the fourth quarter of 2010. The probable location of this well, in what we have designated as our Pawnee prospect area, is between successful Eagle Ford wells drilled recently by Conoco Phillips to the north and northeast and Pioneer to the southwest.

In our Fashing area, approximately 16 miles to the north of our Pawnee area, and where we own an approximate 50% working interest in 1,500 gross HBP acres, leasing and drilling activity has increased dramatically. EOG has been active, drilling and permitting horizontal wells approximately two miles north of our leasehold, which is currently believed to be in the oil corridor of the Eagle Ford Shale Play.

We also own a 95% working interest in approximately 4,600 gross acres in southeast Zavala County where activity targeting the Eagle Ford Shale in the oil corridor of the play has increased. Petrohawk has announced the initial results on their Redhawk Prospect located approximately 17 miles WNW and Chesapeake has drilled to total depth on their initial horizontal well in Zavala County approximately 6 miles N of our leasehold. We are currently reviewing the area for potential late 2010 or early 2011 company operated drilling activity.


----------



## Agentm

this from forbes


Forbes Energy Services Reports Selected Operating Data for March 2010


~ U.S. Rig hours up 21.7% year-over-year ~

~ Truck hours up 31.7% year-over-year ~

ALICE, Texas, April 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Forbes Energy Services Ltd. (TSX: FRB) today announced its rig and trucking hours for the month of March 2010.  


John Crisp, Forbes Energy's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "Our industry is continuing to experience a robust recovery.  Forbes is benefitting significantly from the recent strength in oil prices due to our exposure to oily markets, such as the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, the Permian Basin in West Texas, and Chicontepec in Mexico.

"In particular, we expect significant additional upside from our position in the Eagle Ford Shale.  One of our largest customers recently stated, 'We believe the South Texas Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil play will prove to be one of the most significant United States oil discoveries in the past 40 years.'  South Texas is Forbes core base of operations, and with seven of our twenty eight yards supporting the Eagle Ford, we have the infrastructure in place to continue to leverage our rapid growth in the play.  With the youngest rig fleet engineered with the most modern technology, and with significant experience working in tight formations similar to the Eagle Ford, we believe Forbes is the best suited Company for managing the depth and complexity of these wells for our larger customers.  Five of our top ten customers, and nine of our top twenty-one customers, operate in the Eagle Ford shale, resulting in more than one third of Forbes fluid logistics revenues currently being generated from this play.

"Pricing has firmed up across both of our operating segments.  Although price increases have been sporadic across our geographic area, on average we see improvement throughout 2010 as strong oil prices continue to encourage increased activity."

Forbes Energy Services cautions that several factors other than those discussed above may impact the Company's operating results and that a particular trend regarding the factors above may or may not be indicative of the Company's current or future financial performance.

U.S. rigs generally work all weekdays except holidays.  Mexico rigs generally work every day except holidays.  Trucks generally operate every day except Sundays and holidays.   Rig and truck hours represent actual hours billed to customers.

Forbes Energy Services Ltd. is an independent oilfield services contractor that provides a broad range of drilling-related and production-related services to oil and natural gas companies, primarily onshore in Texas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Mexico.


----------



## Agentm

the frac ops are about to commence or under way now on easley.. followed by the 5000 foot morgan the rancho grande

looks like a very interesting month ahead with plenty of very critical data to come through

liking the news very much myself


13 April 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Sugarloaf AMI within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.

Easley #1H

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp, that the rig up of fracture stimulation equipment has commenced for the planned Easley #1H well fracture operations. It is expected to take approximately two weeks to stimulate approximately 3,000 ft of horizontal liner in a number of stages. The fracture stimulation design is similar to that recently successfully applied to the Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H wells. The well will be flowed to sales during cleanup.

Morgan #1H

The well was drilled to a Total Depth of 17,015 ft and production casing has been run and cemented across approximately 5,000 ft of reservoir section. This well is to be fracture stimulated soon after the completion of fracture stimulation operations on the Easley #1H well.

Rancho Grande #1H

This well was spudded on 25 March 2010 and as at 12 April had been drilled to a Total Depth of 16,957 ft. The length of the horizontal lateral drilled within the target reservoir is approximately 5,000 ft. The forward plan is to run and cement casing in the well followed by fracture stimulation in due course. As per the other Sugarloaf AMI wells, Rancho Grande #1H will be cleaned up and produced directly into sales upon conclusion of that operation.


----------



## Agie82

Agentm said:


> i expect hilcorp will ring that paper and complain bitterly that they are putting out sensitive information on the eagleford that they want no one to know about.
> 
> keep in mind that hilcorp believe ALL information on the eagleford that all locals know about comes SOLELY from ME..  lol..
> 
> could you do me a favour and pull out all the papers from everyones mail box for me immediately, i dont want anyone stealing my  limelight..
> 
> i think hilcorp underestimates the intelligence that the communities have in liveoak and karnes and dewitt..  my view is that playing that card will backfire on them..
> 
> 
> lol




So I guess if Hilcorp sends out numerous letters to landowners in southcentral Gonzales county offering 500 per acre, no one will breathe a word about it and keep it all to themselves.  Especially when most of them are already leased for about a fifth of that amount.  It makes you wonder if your really want to do business with them if they are that naive or worried about information "leaks".


----------



## Ramblin Round

Leasing is and always has been a nasty nasty part of oil and gas. Half of it is a flip of the coin and the better half is unethical at best. The landowners should just be glad they are in the game. Think how many acres in Texas is not circled for anything on these maps. Countless millions of acreas are worthless. How can landowners cry over getting 500/acre instead of 1000/acre when the rigs are on the way ? It makes no sense to me why any of it matters. Waaaah waaah all the way to the bank. If they were smart they would take their free money and go buy the hell out of Adelphi stock.

And THAT sir is indeed In My Honest Opinion.


----------



## jestex12

UPDATE 1-Pioneer Natural hits 4th successful well in Eagle Ford
Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:45am EDTStocks  
Pioneer Natural Resources Company
PXD.N
$61.36
+0.52+0.85%
6:09am PDT
 * Hits fourth successful well in Eagle Ford shale * Sees initial production rate of 19.9 mmcfe/d * Eagle Ford shale to add significantly to its production

Stocks  |  Energy

April 13 (Reuters) - Independent oil and gas producer Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD.N) said it drilled a fourth successful well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, and expects this shale to significantly add to its production.

The gas rich well located in Karnes County, Texas, tested at an initial production rate of 19.9 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (mmcfe/d), and is expected to be connected to a sales line by early May.

"With a gross resource potential of more than 11 trillion cubic feet equivalent, we expect the Eagle Ford Shale to add significant production and reserves," Chief Executive Scott Sheffield said in a statement.

Pioneer also said it is targeting liquids-rich areas with two rigs currently drilling horizontal wells in Karnes and Live Oak Counties, and it plans to ramp up drilling activity within the next few months.

Shares of the Dallas, Texas-based company closed at $60.84 Monday on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan in Bangalore; Editing by Jarshad Kakkrakandy)


----------



## JOHAUD

More on Pioneer

Pioneer Natural Resources Continues Successful Eagle Ford Shale Drilling Program 
DALLAS, Apr 13, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSEXD) today announced its fourth successful well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Handy Gas Unit #1 well, which is located in Karnes County, Texas, tested at an initial production rate of 19.9 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (including 7.7 million cubic feet of gas per day and 2,030 barrels of condensate per day) on a 22/64 inch choke with approximately 6,300 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. This equates to a condensate yield of 263 barrels per million cubic feet of gas. The liquids-rich gas contains 1,300 British thermal units per cubic foot. The well was drilled to a vertical depth of approximately 13,100 feet and completed in a 4,400-foot lateral section with a 12-stage fracture stimulation. The well is expected to be connected to a sales line by early May. 

Scott Sheffield, Chairman and CEO, stated, "We are very excited to have successfully drilled another highly productive well in the Eagle Ford Shale, especially one with the highest condensate production rate and yield per million cubic feet of gas as well as the highest combined gas and liquids production rate reported in the play to date. The well, which is located 17 miles southwest of our recent successful Riedesel #1 well and 36 miles northeast of our earlier Sinor #5 and Crawley #1 successes, further strengthens our confidence in the development potential of the 1,750 Eagle Ford Shale locations we have identified across our large acreage position, with most of these in the condensate window. With a gross resource potential of more than 11 trillion cubic feet equivalent, we expect the Eagle Ford Shale to add significant production and reserves while enhancing shareholder value." 

Pioneer is a technology leader in this play with greater than 2,000 square miles of 3-D seismic data, logs from more than 150 operated wells, proprietary core samples and micro-seismic results. The Company is targeting liquids-rich areas with two rigs currently drilling horizontal wells in Karnes and Live Oak Counties, and it plans to ramp up drilling activity within the next few months. To further accelerate Eagle Ford Shale development, the Company is actively pursuing a joint venture, with closing expected by the end of the second quarter of 2010.


----------



## Agie82

I would like to throw this out for info. purposes concerning frac water.  Iknow reading some posts that this is definitely becoming as issure with drilling in Texas.  I work for a company that has a patented system that removes heavy metals, chemicals, organics, and oils from water using a system that operates using electrocoagulation verses chemical treating.  We operate one of the largest plating plants in the southwest and developed it for or own use treating zinc, nickel, chrome, alkalines and acids.  We can run rates as low as 1-5 gal per minute up to 500 or better gal. per minute.  One of our competitors, that has a good product, but not quite the capacity, was bought by Haliburton for frac water clean up.  If you would pass this on to some of the frac companies that you have contact with or if you work for one and are intersted in the process, please contact me at apache@gvtc.com for additional info.


----------



## Agentm

great posts as usual here

nice to see some discussions on the pioneer handy well, and imho if you look at the whole play in central-east karnes, it looks very much like the eagleford is active throughout

this is the state of play as i see it and as its being reported in the press by eog, pioneer, meridian(Murphy drees 1h) and conoco


----------



## Agentm

turnbull 2h permit

this well from hilcorp is south and west of turnbull 1h..

could be longhorn, maybe not?? who knows..


----------



## Agentm

choppy

re that AZZ well. i recall they announced some staggering ip on the well

ASX/NEWS RELEASE 1 February 2010

INITIAL PRODUCTION – 15.4 MMCFE/D
18:1 Revenue Equivalency Basis
Project: Yellow Rose
Well: Frances Dilworth No. 2H
Working Interest: 75%
Location: McMullen County, Texas
Operator: San Isidro Development Company (25%)

Antares Energy is thrilled to announce the Initial Production (IP) rate of the Frances Dilworth No. 2H is 790 Bo/d and 900 Mcf/d with an initial flowing tubing pressure of 4,500 psi on a 22/64” choke. The well is flowing 53 API gravity oil and 1,300 MBTU/Mcf gas. This equates to a 15.4 Mmcfe/d rate on an 18:1 revenue equivalency basis accounting for the quality of the liquids rich gas.

looking at the ip report they lodged with the TRRC its pretty much different in every respect

what are your thoughts on that?


----------



## choppy

AgentM,

The observation you have made is kind of the 800 lb gorilla in the room so to speak.  24 hr IP's are almost useless in determining the economic success of the well.  30 day or 60 day average rates tell a lot more about what kind of well it is really going to be.

My bet is that the rate reported by San Isidro to the RRC is somewhat of a more stabilized rate than the initial ip reported.  The initial rate could probably not be sustained.

This same thing will be true for many wells in the play.  The operators like to report these barnburner ip's, but often the wells won't produce at that rate for more than a couple of days.  For instance I heard the 17mmcf per day Pioneer Crawley well was down to 3 mmcf in about 45 days.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I agree to a point choppy, but you DO know they're choking these wells down quite a bit after announcing and logging until the pipeline is completed right ? I'm sure a man of your talent has already calculated that. They're showing off the potential of what it is capable of, but no need to continue that initial flow rate if you can't get the product anywhere fast enough. You just wait intil this pipeline is finished and you'll see the big $$$$$ moving!


----------



## choppy

Ramblin Round said:


> they're choking these wells down quite a bit after announcing and logging until the pipeline is completed right  You just wait intil this pipeline is finished and you'll see the big $$$$$ moving!




In a few instances this is true,  but more often than not, surface facilities and pipelines are built before the wells are frac'ed and tested (this is especially true for the larger operators.)


----------



## Jman2010

Ramblin Round said:


> I agree to a point choppy, but you DO know they're choking these wells down quite a bit after announcing and logging until the pipeline is completed right ? I'm sure a man of your talent has already calculated that. They're showing off the potential of what it is capable of, but no need to continue that initial flow rate if you can't get the product anywhere fast enough. You just wait intil this pipeline is finished and you'll see the big $$$$$ moving!





Companies always report the highest numbers they legally can for their stocks.  I have heard the decline rate is much less compared to the Austin Chalk.


----------



## Agentm

Jman2010 said:


> Companies always report the highest numbers they legally can for their stocks.  I have heard the decline rate is much less compared to the Austin Chalk.




i have to say it is the case of AZZ and the francis dilworth well if you consider that they announced the well with a spectacular *790 Bo/d* and 900 Mcf/d  *and only achieved one third of that in reality*

in february some *248 bopd* is all it got, and thats a fact!!

then you have to agree the announcement was very much one worthy of raised eyebrows hey!

i will post up the february figures for that francis dilworth well


----------



## rock86

Weston results for Feb., only 9 days of production too.

Don't know if this has been posted already, if it has, my bad.

Not bad for a chalks well really, can't wait for these new wells data.


----------



## lemontree

SUGARLOAF AMI PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS UPDATE
Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on production
and operations at the Sugarloaf AMI within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Kennedy #1H
This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous
production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.
Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)
Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^
60 day gross production
Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^
Weston #1H
This well has been on continuous production since 16 February 2010 and has not yet had
production tubing installed. The 60 day gross production has been estimated to allow
comparisons to be made.
Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^
60 day gross production*
Total Gas – 342 mmscf (average 5.7 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 21,351 bbls (average 356 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.4 mmscfe/d^
^equivalent gas rates have been calculated using an industry standard 12:1 conversion of oil
to gas and an uplift to the gas volume of 25% representing the high calorific content of the
gas.
*this figure is based on 57 days data and 3 days extrapolation based on the decline observed
in the last day of reported data.
2
On 25 March 2010 Adelphi reported 30 day average production figures (calculated on the
same basis) and these were: Weston #1H – 11.5 mmscfe/d and Kennedy #1H – 11.7
mmscfe/d.
By comparison the Petrohawk (NYSE:HK) announcement released on 01/02/10 had a 30 day
average from 19 wells in its Hawkville Field at 7.8 mmscfe/d and a 60 day average from 18
wells at 6.6 mmscfe/d when calculated on a 12:1 basis.

Agentm, do you think fitting production tubing will have a significant impact on the flow rates?


----------



## rock86

lemontree said:


> SUGARLOAF AMI PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS UPDATE
> Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on production
> and operations at the Sugarloaf AMI within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
> Kennedy #1H
> This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous
> production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.
> Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)
> Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^
> 60 day gross production
> Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^
> Weston #1H
> This well has been on continuous production since 16 February 2010 and has not yet had
> production tubing installed. The 60 day gross production has been estimated to allow
> comparisons to be made.
> Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
> Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^
> 60 day gross production*
> Total Gas – 342 mmscf (average 5.7 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 21,351 bbls (average 356 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.4 mmscfe/d^
> ^equivalent gas rates have been calculated using an industry standard 12:1 conversion of oil
> to gas and an uplift to the gas volume of 25% representing the high calorific content of the
> gas.
> *this figure is based on 57 days data and 3 days extrapolation based on the decline observed
> in the last day of reported data.
> 2
> On 25 March 2010 Adelphi reported 30 day average production figures (calculated on the
> same basis) and these were: Weston #1H – 11.5 mmscfe/d and Kennedy #1H – 11.7
> mmscfe/d.
> By comparison the Petrohawk (NYSE:HK) announcement released on 01/02/10 had a 30 day
> average from 19 wells in its Hawkville Field at 7.8 mmscfe/d and a 60 day average from 18
> wells at 6.6 mmscfe/d when calculated on a 12:1 basis.
> 
> Agentm, do you think fitting production tubing will have a significant impact on the flow rates?




Good announcement, flow rates are excellent, expecially for Kennedy when only 1500 ft (by memory) was fracced. Then we have Weston that was a chalks well producing above average gas production from surrounding areas.

These two wells clearly show what is possible of these new wells, the horizontals will be over 3 times bigger and will encounter both zones.

I think we might have 3 monsters on our hand if all fraccs go to plan.

All IMO

on a different note, 5,000 posts on ADI thread, amazing


----------



## Agentm

Kennedy

• *The well is flowing from approximately 2,200 ft of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale *with the remainder of the 4,000 ft horizontal liner isolated and not contributing.


Kennedy #1H 

This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.

Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)

Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^

60 day gross production
Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^


Weston

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful fracture stimulation of *3,000*’ of horizontal section...

Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^


pretty spectacular imho


----------



## rock86

rock86 said:


> Good announcement, flow rates are excellent, expecially for Kennedy when only 1500 ft (by memory) was fracced. Then we have Weston that was a chalks well producing above average gas production from surrounding areas.
> 
> These two wells clearly show what is possible of these new wells, the horizontals will be over 3 times bigger and will encounter both zones.
> 
> I think we might have 3 monsters on our hand if all fraccs go to plan.
> 
> All IMO
> 
> on a different note, 5,000 posts on ADI thread, amazing






Agentm said:


> Kennedy
> 
> • *The well is flowing from approximately 2,200 ft of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale *with the remainder of the 4,000 ft horizontal liner isolated and not contributing.
> 
> 
> Kennedy #1H
> 
> This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.
> 
> Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)
> 
> Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^
> 
> 60 day gross production
> Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^
> 
> 
> Weston
> 
> Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful fracture stimulation of *3,000*’ of horizontal section...
> 
> Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
> Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
> Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
> Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^
> 
> 
> pretty spectacular imho




I was a fair bit off in the horizontal lengths but agree Agent great reults, and with no production tubing as of yet, how much difference (better) do you think it will make to production rates and decline??

ps. still think these new wells will be monsters


----------



## AngusSmart

I wish the AUT thread was this active, but its all the same same really right?

good news however..

AUT has not moved at all today while the other two have upped 4%


----------



## lemontree

Yeah this thread basically covers EKA and AUT as well. I wouldnt worry about the price movements of ADI and EKA comapred to AUT today. ADI is going up and down between .280 and .300 while EKA is fluctuating between .115 and .120 there probably wont be any real price changes until after the fracs are done for the other 2 wells


----------



## swcbonfire

Howdy y'all.  Good to see some Gonzales people on here, this thread is a great source of information and probably the most specific source about exploration in the Eagle Ford.

I came across some information compiled by the USGS in my search to see if the Eagle Ford was under my property in Gonzales County.  I am on the updip side 13 miles from Gonzales... but I don't know of anyone in Gonzales county leasing north of a Nixon to Gonzales line, a line approximating the top of the Austin chalk above 8000 feet. 

As I am a new poster, I cannot post a direct link but the study is entitled :
"2003 Geologic Assessment of
Undiscovered Conventional Oil
and Gas Resources in the Upper
Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor
Groups, Western Gulf Province, Texas"

A google search of the document name, "69_H_CH_2", should take you right to it.


Figure 5 shows a map of the total thickness of the Austin/Eagle Ford group... I'm no expert about the relative thicknesses between the two, and I'm sure they vary locally, but from what I know the Austin chalk is significantly thicker in relation to the underlying Eagle Ford, often many times thicker.

Based on that map, the Karnes county wells are probably on the 100-300' thick portions of the trend as all but the western tip of the county is thicker than 100'.

Figure 6 shows a map of the overburden to the top of the Austin Chalk (and you can extrapolate out to the bottom of the underlying Eagle Ford).

Thought I'd share.  I don't know if I'll get anything from this, if the shale is thick enough or has enough hydrocarbons in my area of the shallow updip to be viable, but this is going to be a net positive for our area, period.  I appreciate the investors in this group and down under for providing the capital to utilize our natural resources to the fullest - looks like it's going to take a lot of it to get all these wells producing.


----------



## Agentm

swcbonfire

this is not a forum for geological advice, this forum is for investors, and the topic is adi, on the asx stock exchange. my view is that should the topic  remain on landowners it would likely be moderated.. 

some locals are posting here, but many are either adding info on the regional developments for investors.. the info is about developments in the play, not about whos land has what!

my view is that your way off topic here.. and its easy to pm a mod and ask they remove a post you  think needs removing, this one can be wiped too as its simply a reply to yours


----------



## mick z

oh.....my.......god....agentm that takes the cake, who do you think you are telling people what they can post on here, you do NOT run this forum.
unbelievable


----------



## fflintoff

Mick,
Most of the folks in the UK misguidedly think that all of the aussies act in the same manner as agentm so the nature of his posts won ´t come as a surprise to those folks.:bonk::bonk:


----------



## Agentm

mick z said:


> oh.....my.......god....agentm that takes the cake, who do you think you are telling people what they can post on here, you do NOT run this forum.
> unbelievable






fflintoff said:


> Mick,
> Most of the folks in the UK misguidedly think that all of the aussies act in the same manner as agentm so the nature of his posts won ´t come as a surprise to those folks.:bonk::bonk:




what has this got to do with adi??

your just trying to breach the rules of the forum and flame

please stay on topic,..  imho moderation is required..


----------



## Silhouetteau

Can someone explain why they haven't put production tubing on the first two wells? 
Can this be done simultaneously with the other drilling that's going on?

I think agentm posted a while ago that production tubing increased flow by 30% and I just did a few quick calculations, they're missing out on around $10k/day per well by not including the tubing.

Also interesting to note that they have decided to frac Morgan before Easley now, I'm keen to see what production comes from the 5000ft horizontal.


----------



## fflintoff

Silhouetteau said:


> Can someone explain why they haven't put production tubing on the first two wells?
> Can this be done simultaneously with the other drilling that's going on?
> 
> I think agentm posted a while ago that production tubing increased flow by 30% and I just did a few quick calculations, they're missing out on around $10k/day per well by not including the tubing.
> 
> Also interesting to note that they have decided to frac Morgan before Easley now, I'm keen to see what production comes from the 5000ft horizontal.





The 30% increase is extremely unreliable & should be treated with extreme caution.


----------



## Ramblin Round

And fflintoff, circumventing the minimum character count should be treated with extreme caution as well. 


As for the production tubing (in my limited experience of commenting on it), that seems to be a confusing take for the driveby oil and gas investor. It could mean that when inserted the well is ready to produce heavily, or it could mean they're having hell with that particular well and it needs more stimulating to perform. And yes if done correctly this can be done while other drilling is going on.


----------



## Agentm

Silhouetteau said:


> Can someone explain why they haven't put production tubing on the first two wells?
> Can this be done simultaneously with the other drilling that's going on?
> 
> I think agentm posted a while ago that production tubing increased flow by 30% and I just did a few quick calculations, they're missing out on around $10k/day per well by not including the tubing.
> 
> Also interesting to note that they have decided to frac Morgan before Easley now, I'm keen to see what production comes from the 5000ft horizontal.




there have been improvements, but that is no a given

production strings will be put in place as needed and when needed, and there is a possibility the lifting capacity will improve, but it doesnt mean production will. its a case of wait and see.

petrohawk for instance has commented on experiments where they choke the well back to see if there are any improvements over a 12 month period in some shale plays..  one operator reported improvements in mcmullen after putting in a production liner later, would be brilliant if that happened for our wells but imho its just a possibility only


----------



## Agentm

just south of the turnbull 2 well is the next well turnbull 3  in line with kowalik, rancho grande 5000 foot completion and morgan 5000 foot  completion


----------



## Agie82

Trying to get more informed on ADI, are there any producers that ADI is associated with.  I mean I see EOG and Hilcorp mentioned quite a bit, but is ADI in with these guys or are the just the ones doing the drilling in and around sugarloaf.  If ADI comes up our way do they operate as ADI or are they using a different name.  Just trying to be more informed.


----------



## Agentm

Agie82 said:


> Trying to get more informed on ADI, are there any producers that ADI is associated with.  I mean I see EOG and Hilcorp mentioned quite a bit, but is ADI in with these guys or are the just the ones doing the drilling in and around sugarloaf.  If ADI comes up our way do they operate as ADI or are they using a different name.  Just trying to be more informed.




adi aut and eka on the ASX and a private company called TCEI are in a jvp with hilcorp. hilcorp have just taken over as operators from texas crude ind inc..


the AMI is 23000 odd acres.  AUT has extended their position into further acres with TCEI and Hilcorp

Hilcorp are buying more regional acreages

you wont see adi in gonzales imho

TCEI and conoco have combined acreages and we know TCEI originally made the discovery well in live oak called kunde 1 in 2006 when it was in partnership with burlington, which was taken over by conocophillips

adi is just a partner here.. not an operator

hilcorp are doing an outstanding job right now on the play as operator..

amazing outfit imho


----------



## Agie82

Agentm said:


> adi aut and eka on the ASX and a private company called TCEI are in a jvp with hilcorp. hilcorp have just taken over as operators from texas crude ind inc..
> 
> 
> the AMI is 23000 odd acres.  AUT has extended their position into further acres with TCEI and Hilcorp
> 
> Hilcorp are buying more regional acreages
> 
> you wont see adi in gonzales imho
> 
> TCEI and conoco have combined acreages and we know TCEI originally made the discovery well in live oak called kunde 1 in 2006 when it was in partnership with burlington, which was taken over by conocophillips
> 
> adi is just a partner here.. not an operator
> 
> hilcorp are doing an outstanding job right now on the play as operator..
> 
> amazing outfit imho




So, Agentm, I see Hilcorp is drilling its first well on the Barnhart ranch lease at Pilgrim Lake, about .5 mile se of Pilgrim and 4 miles or so north of Westhoff.  You are saying ADI does not have any part in these wells, that Hilcorp is doing the Gonzales county wells on their own?  Also, more coffe house talk, EOG is looking to drill around 400 wells in Gonzales 
County on their leases over the next 2-3 years, for what it's worth.


----------



## Agentm

Agie82 said:


> So, Agentm, I see Hilcorp is drilling its first well on the Barnhart ranch lease at Pilgrim Lake, about .5 mile se of Pilgrim and 4 miles or so north of Westhoff.  You are saying ADI does not have any part in these wells, that Hilcorp is doing the Gonzales county wells on their own?  Also, more coffe house talk, EOG is looking to drill around 400 wells in Gonzales
> County on their leases over the next 2-3 years, for what it's worth.




hilcorp are certainly expanding into he play

adi have no interests in the gozales acreages.. just the karnes county acres

in the nearby acreages turnbull 1 is practically drilled out if you consider 19 days to complete is practical now.  

turnbull 2 has a rig on it

i am getting reports of frac crews all over these sites that adi have interests in

imho will be getting busy there in the near term for all


----------



## Bilja

Why is it that ADI SP dropped 5% today, whilst AUT SP gained 5%??

Can anyone explain why AUT SP seems to be driving higher each day, and most importantly on the back of positive announcements....whilst ADI continues to slide.  

Why is ADI SP sliding on the back of positive announcements and what is it going to take to see some proper gains towards the mooted derisked SP that has been so widely advertised??


----------



## lemontree

Perhaps the presentation from AUT had something to do with the raised awareness and therefore increased sp. I can only assume the sp for AUT will continue on an uptrend for a while.

In relation to ADI, i think people MAY be selling out of ADI and reinvesting into AUT for the short term gains. Might also have something to do with AUT having the 3 turnbull wells.

After fraccing of the 2 new wells, ADI should see a rise in sp. (assuming the results are positive). Of course all this is my own speculation.


----------



## WRONG'UN

I agree, Lemontree, the presentation would have been a catalyst.
It's worth noting that yesterday's volume in AUT was more than 10 times the volume in ADI, and it was also the highest for many months. In contrast, the ADI volume was still quite low. So, while there may have been some rotation out of ADI into AUT, the numbers indicate that the move in AUT was primarily driven by new buyers. That's a good sign for the other JV partners, at some stage.


----------



## condog

With due respect - smell the cheese. its so obvious what is happening and why. Dont bury your heads.

SO far AUt is not even on par in terms of $sp/boe reserves or production, let alone the value of whats currently happening. Expect to see a monumental gap occur. 

ADI is fantastic imo, but dont expect to see it track AUT in the short term. Even beyond that surely AUt will have too much cash flow and too much devlopment happening outside the AMI for ADI to track it.

Id simply be comparing ADI and EKA from this point on.


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> With due respect - smell the cheese. its so obvious what is happening and why. Dont bury your heads.
> 
> SO far AUt is not even on par in terms of $sp/boe reserves or production, let alone the value of whats currently happening. Expect to see a monumental gap occur.
> 
> ADI is fantastic imo, but dont expect to see it track AUT in the short term. Even beyond that surely AUt will have too much cash flow and too much devlopment happening outside the AMI for ADI to track it.
> 
> Id simply be comparing ADI and EKA from this point on.





a decoupling of aut from the other jvp members is very much expected as there has to be, at some stage, a consideration given for adi towards their acreages

we also will see reserves based on the 23,000 acres come into play as the AMI wells of easley, morgan and rancho grande are fracced. all wells are totally free carried to the jvp partners and i would expect the recent assessment by hartleys to come into play, they see .45 as a short term price target. i expect that one to arrive shortly myself..


_ADELPHI ENERGY LTD

What happened?

Adelphi Energy has reported sustained average 30 day flow rates from its
first two wells at its Sugarloaf project onshore USA. The Kennedy #1H well
has averaged 11.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day* (“mmcfe/d”)
and the Weston #1H well has recorded average 30 day production of
11.4mmcfe/d. These results have been achieved without the benefit of
installation of production tubing, which has been indicated in nearby wells to
result in a decrease in initial decline.

The Company has also reported that it now has three additional wells in the
process of being drilled or fracture stimulated.

ADI is free carried through the current work program.
What does it mean?

At these rates, we estimate that each well is making US$50k-US$65k in
revenue per day, with combined revenue from both wells grossing estimated
US$3-4m in the first 30 days. We calculate that the average gas /
condensate production per well is 3.75 million cubic feet of gas per day with
615 barrels of condensate per day (flow rates will decline significantly in the
first year). With well costs estimated at US$6-8m, payback should be
achieved within 5-8 months.

It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
of gas equivalent. We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps.
Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. *Now that the
technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90%
chance of success).*

Hartleys Initial View

We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.

*If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps*._

what i noticed over the last few days was the reclassification of the conocophillips bordovsky well to a sugarkane gas well. and all the dewiit county wells are also named as sugarkane.. i think that will become a significant factor in the future myself as hilcorp and conoco expand into the play.. for those not aware of the implications of a gas field compared to an oil field like eog are facing in the north then i suggest you dyor..



hartleys maintains the project is 90% derisked.. and imho they are spot on.

the small daily turnover in adi is hardly a concern to me, imho those buying atm are picking up great value as the jvp i expect will have a significant re rating to the hartleys .45 very shortly.,,, as soon as the jvp announce the frac has started and the results come through is when i expect those targets to be met. if it doesnt i know where my spare cash is going!


----------



## lemontree

Time	Price	Volume	Value	Condition
10:21:01 AM	0.275	56,201	15,455.28	 
10:21:01 AM	0.275	12,223	3,361.33	 
10:21:01 AM	0.275	20,000	5,500.00	 
10:21:01 AM	0.275	11,576	3,183.40	

one person bought up 100k shares, readying for the future haha


----------



## WRONG'UN

Now it just needs the 325,000 share iceberg from 27.5 - 29c to melt - like the 361,000 share iceberg on AUT yesterday.


----------



## rock86

condog said:


> With due respect - smell the cheese. its so obvious what is happening and why. Dont bury your heads.
> 
> SO far AUt is not even on par in terms of $sp/boe reserves or production, let alone the value of whats currently happening. Expect to see a monumental gap occur.
> 
> ADI is fantastic imo, but dont expect to see it track AUT in the short term. Even beyond that surely AUt will have too much cash flow and too much devlopment happening outside the AMI for ADI to track it.
> 
> Id simply be comparing ADI and EKA from this point on.




Condog I'm pretty sure we all know that AUT is going to create a gap from the other JVP's with Longhorn and Ipenama being drilled, however I do think with the recent marketing and promotion that AUT has been doing is the reason we are seeing an increasing number of trades over the past few days not there additional acreage (which has been known for some time now). Maybe the other JVP's can take a leaf out AUT's book and start promoting and marketing themselves as AUT is presently doing, good on the AUT BOD.


----------



## cicak_kupang

rock86 said:


> Condog I'm pretty sure we all know that AUT is going to create a gap from the other JVP's with Longhorn and Ipenama being drilled, however I do think with the recent marketing and promotion that AUT has been doing is the reason we are seeing an increasing number of trades over the past few days not there additional acreage (which has been known for some time now).* Maybe the other JVP's can take a leaf out AUT's book and start promoting and marketing themselves as AUT is presently doing, good on the AUT BOD.*





Yep agree there.  This has been on goat for a while.  While its great to have a company thats not rampng itself and playing its cards close to its chest with very smooth and calculated announcements, there is nothing wrong with a bit of self promotion. i know, fine line between self promotion and ramping.  under promotion can be just as worthless as self ramping.....


----------



## Agentm

cicak_kupang said:


> [/B][/COLOR]
> 
> Yep agree there.  This has been on goat for a while.  While its great to have a company thats not rampng itself and playing its cards close to its chest with very smooth and calculated announcements, there is nothing wrong with a bit of self promotion. i know, fine line between self promotion and ramping.  under promotion can be just as worthless as self ramping.....




imho the recent promotion i have seen on the eagleford have left some with egg on their faces

an ip is nothing, adi has released the 60 day flow rates on the two short laterals of kennedy and weston.

all are extremely impressive

imho once the flow rates of the next wells are disclosed, expect some serious promotion..

if you pin it all on an ip and it turns out to be a fizzer, then where are going to go, and where is your reputation?

adi and aut are doing it right

right now is the perfect time to accumulate

all imho and dyor


----------



## Sharejon

What do you think is the reasoning behind the the fact that there are currently 540,000 shares in the purchase collumn and 1.2 million in the sell collumn?

I noticed Wrong'Un state that maybe it was a case of investors 'trading' their stocks from ADI into AUT. Any other opinions?

Thanks,
S


----------



## WRONG'UN

Actually it was Lemontree who suggested possible rotation out of ADI into AUT. I noted that on the basis of the trading volumes in the two stocks, rotation would have had only a minor effect on AUT's sp - there was a lot more new buying.
The relativity between ADI and AUT (and EKA for that matter) is an interesting subject. While there are the fundamental considerations that have been well described already, there is also a technical aspect. The attached PairTradeFinder charts (see separate thread for PairTradeFinder details) show a definite cyclical pattern in the relativity between ADI and AUT - at the moment it could be argued that ADI is on the verge of reasserting itself against AUT.
There is, of course, no guarrantee that the historical pattern will repeat, so I'm not sure if this helps or not - but there it is.


----------



## JOHAUD

Interesting-

 no wonder they all want to be there,

http://www.dailywealth.com/1330/The-Most-Important-U-S-Oil-Discovery-in-40-Years


----------



## jancha

JOHAUD said:


> Interesting-
> 
> no wonder they all want to be there,
> 
> http://www.dailywealth.com/1330/The-Most-Important-U-S-Oil-Discovery-in-40-Years




If this is the biggest oil find in forty years why hasn't the likes of ADI AUT or EKA at their current sp been gobbled up by Hillcorp or any other major player?
ADI in particular seems to be losing popularity & the sp reflecks it.
If this were a serious play the sp would have more volume & the sp would be heading north.
Apart from AUT with it's presentation yesterday there hasn't been any real volume with these companies.
For this so called biggest oil find in forty years Blah Blah Blah there is bugger all interest on it other than on this forum.


----------



## condog

You can accuse me of what ever you want after this post but i tell it honestly how i see it.

1. invest to make money.
2. move your money to where you see the greatest gain.


ADI will not come close to AUt and imo you are extremely niavie to hold unless required to do so due to a tax position or other that deminishes normal market forces.

AUT has the AMI benefits.

The slalable assett value of the extraordinarily valuable acerage

The extra free carried wells in a better area and higher percentage interests.

ALl this will establish a clear gap in the very short term. But then the extra cash flow, acerage will allow AUt to drill its acerage and take interest in other wells at a much more accellerated rate the ADI or EKA.

As such i see an accelleration now followed by multiples of that accelration as the cash flow allows further drilling.

As a rough guid if at the end of the free carried program ADI has 3 wells cash flow they may be able to drill 1 well per 2 months using cash flow. In comparrison AUt will have 10 wells some at much higher interest. 
Thus they can drill at 3 times the rate using cash flow to fund. 

Hence after 12 months ADI might at best have an extra 6 wells using existing capital, where as AU will have possibly 18 wells. 

In the following 12 month period they will have cash flow from 28 wells compared to ADI' possible 9 wells. Get the picture its  case of not only acerage, but leverage and accelerated cash flow.

do as you wish but please be open eyed. ADI is fantastic, but your kidding yourslef if you think it can stay anywhere near the pace of AUt.

Id be more then happy to see people in here in 2 years time saying i stayed in ADI to diversify my risk,. But id be horrified if they stayed in hoping to get the same return on equity.


----------



## jetblack

Your accelerated multiple well work is pretty basic and I think the majority of ADI investors understand what the investment in Eagleford is about. I dont think the investors are kidding themselves, its not the impression I get.

What I believe is an important factor is the management of each of the jvp's acerages. What about the multiples of dollars needed to fund each well, surely AUT will need more multiples of cash than what your skewed example outlines.

But as yet we dont know what  are the real consist figures will be, nor do we know what any future well will produce, I understand the derisking of the venture.

Its still speculative, but im in no hurry.


----------



## condog

jet theres no skew about it.

If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.

In the second year if AUT have significantly more wells, possibly 3-4 times as many, which do you think will have more cash fklow for the following year.

Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately.

Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.

I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.


Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious.


----------



## tomcat

condog said:


> jet theres no skew about it.
> 
> If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.
> 
> In the second year if AUT have significantly more wells, possibly 3-4 times as many, which do you think will have more cash fklow for the following year.
> 
> Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately.
> 
> Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.
> 
> I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.
> 
> 
> Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious.




Not quite so obvious Condog,

No one knows what the forward plan is for hilcorp or how these fracced wells will produce.

They may pay back Hilcorp in 2-3 months or it may be longer...so AUT may be waiting longer for cashflow. Remember AUT only get paid once Hilcorp have re-couped their driling and fraccing costs.

Ever here the story about the small players being drilled out, with AUT's added percentage for their additional acreage comes additional risk associated with their ability in keeping up with capital requirements...no one really knows what Hilcorps forward plan is. Hilcorp will not wait for AUT to raise money if they decide to go nuts!! Look at how quickly they are smashing the wells at the moment. Who is to say how fast they accelerate their drilling program. The presentation from AUT provides a nice little schedule for forward drilling but none of the JVP I talk to can give me any indication of what the real forward plan for Hilcorp is.

I wouldnt be so confident in telling people what is blantently obvious when it is far from so....AUT may have more blue sky based on their acreage but be careful...as you say go in with your eyes wide open...LOL


----------



## rock86

tomcat said:


> Not quite so obvious Condog,
> 
> No one knows what the forward plan is for hilcorp or how these fracced wells will produce.
> 
> They may pay back Hilcorp in 2-3 months or it may be longer...so AUT may be waiting longer for cashflow. Remember AUT only get paid once Hilcorp have re-couped their driling and fraccing costs.
> 
> Ever here the story about the small players being drilled out, with AUT's added percentage for their additional acreage comes additional risk associated with their ability in keeping up with capital requirements...no one really knows what Hilcorps forward plan is. Hilcorp will not wait for AUT to raise money if they decide to go nuts!! Look at how quickly they are smashing the wells at the moment. Who is to say how fast they accelerate their drilling program. The presentation from AUT provides a nice little schedule for forward drilling but none of the JVP I talk to can give me any indication of what the real forward plan for Hilcorp is.
> 
> I wouldnt be so confident in telling people what is blantently obvious when it is far from so....AUT may have more blue sky based on their acreage but be careful...as you say go in with your eyes wide open...LOL




Here here tomcat Condog, I'm pretty sure nobody here has been whinging about AUT gaining and putting a gap on ADI, because we all know this is going to happen. As for the fact about the extra cah flow from additional wells and a higher interest, we again all know this and will see AUT distance itself again.

However where I think most people are dissapointed is the fact of how good we know this play is and that ADI has been lacking interest from investors as seen by the sliding share price and little volume.

And your views on AUT and it's extra acreage, even with this extra cash flow AUT is going to have to come up with larger capital for new wells (with more of an interest) fast, and at the rate Hilcorp is drilling there cash flow from the free carried wells (and the'r cash at bank) probably won't see them through the drilling problem without a cap. raise IMO. That's with my eyes open


----------



## jetblack

con, you might find that I dont whinge about what I invest in.  Its great that you can swap and change your holdings in various companys.

You got this razzle n dazzle thing going on like a sideshow vendor.  Tomcat shares the same opinion on your simplistic well acceleration.

Look into how the jvp's are going to manage the acerage, I know thats foremost  with ADI management and they would concur that AUT will need a huge deal of cash to go forward/manage their lease and more than likely their portion of wells to be drilled.
This is no sledge on AUT management just my opinion.

The presentation from AUT certainly got the desired result.

As for the do yourself a favour with the eyes wide open, yeaah right,,,lol.


----------



## Sdajii

condog said:


> But id be horrified if they stayed in hoping to get the same return on equity.




So you expect ADI to go up dramatically, and AUT even more dramatically... and you'd be horrified if in two years people made a great profit with ADI because they could have made a better profit with AUT?

I don't have a crystal ball and don't know what will actually happen (though I suspect in two years anyone who invested in either will be happy). You may be right, you may be wrong, but either way, apparently you horrify easily!  I wish I was good enough for the most horrific outcome to be a great profit which is less than it could have been 

Good luck to all ADI, AUT and EKA holders


----------



## condog

Thats cool guys - you all got the message loud and clear. Your making your own investment decisions based on your opionion and research which is fine.

Hope for your sakes your right.

By the way acerage is no longer an issue at all. With so much demand for the acerage a farmi-in partner would be instantly found if capital was required and would come at a pretty good price.


----------



## subi1

condog said:


> jet theres no skew about it.
> 
> If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.
> 
> In the second year if AUT have significantly more wells, possibly 3-4 times as many, which do you think will have more cash fklow for the following year.
> 
> Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately.
> 
> Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.
> 
> I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.
> 
> 
> Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious.




ADI are going to have 6 wells after Hilcorp finishes their farmin commitments not 3 so can you let us know how you came up with 3. (Kennedy,Kowalik, Weston & the 3 new wells)

ADI also have less shares and therefore any profit from their wells means more profit per share for holders. It isn't all one way as you appear to be pushing.


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> jet theres no skew about it.
> 
> If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.
> 
> In the second year if AUT have significantly more wells, possibly 3-4 times as many, which do you think will have more cash fklow for the following year.
> 
> *Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately.*
> 
> *Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.
> 
> I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.*
> 
> 
> Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious.






condog said:


> Thats cool guys - you all got the message loud and clear. Your making your own investment decisions based on your opionion and research which is fine.
> 
> *Hope for your sakes your right*.
> 
> By the way acerage is no longer an issue at all. With so much demand for the acerage a farmi-in partner would be instantly found if capital was required and would come at a pretty good price.





condog, imho your offering investment advice here time and again..

can you clearly state that the purpose of your posts in the adi thread right now is not to offer any investment advice nor any leanings for any investor to sell adi and go into a share you say is better. for instance aut..

i am asking you this as i think your failing to understand the purpose of the forum, and the rules that guide it

RESPONSIBILITIES OF POSTERS

It is not permitted for any Aussie Stock Forums member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor.

Aussie Stock Forums members are solely responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their posts, including any alterations made to posts.

*It is not permitted for Aussie Stock Forums members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.*



my view is that when your saying this 

"Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.

I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.


Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious."

your handing out a lot of investment advice to others, saying that you have enough experience to know whats happening..

also you say this

"Its not rocket science.* If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt,* which has been the case lately"


can you clearly clarify and make it perfectly clear to me that your not posting any advice, not recommending aut over adi in any way what so ever, nor stating aut has far superior investment outcome..

just asking whether your just ramping the aut share on the adi thread and offering advice to investors or not here..   please make it very very clear what your intention are on this thread for me..

TIA

all imho and dyor


----------



## condog

Agent I categorically state that it is not advice. Investors should always do thier own research, seek expert advice and make thier own decisions.

The purpose of my points made is to alert investors to what they seem to be ignoring or unaware of so they can discuss these issues with thier brokers and advisors.

Agent you yourself said less then 2 weeks ago that you could not reisst and that AUT was a no brainer.

In my opinion, and its only opinion i do think AUt will have a far superior outcome. But hey thats only opinion. My intention is not to ramp or cross ramp, but to inform, so investors are well versed on whats occuring. given most holders of AUT and ADI and EKA do the majority of there discusssion in this thread it is appropriate that it be in here.


----------



## nioka

WRONG'UN said:


> Actually it was Lemontree who suggested possible rotation out of ADI into AUT. I noted that on the basis of the trading volumes in the two stocks, rotation would have had only a minor effect on AUT's sp - there was a lot more new buying.
> The relativity between ADI and AUT (and EKA for that matter) is an interesting subject. While there are the fundamental considerations that have been well described already, there is also a technical aspect. The attached PairTradeFinder charts (see separate thread for PairTradeFinder details) show a definite cyclical pattern in the relativity between ADI and AUT - at the moment it could be argued that ADI is on the verge of reasserting itself against AUT.
> There is, of course, no guarrantee that the historical pattern will repeat, so I'm not sure if this helps or not - but there it is.




What the charts don't show s the daily fluctuations in the Relative SPs. It is usually possible to buy at lower than the closing price and sell at higher than the closing price. I usually have a high buy order or a low sell order placed and wait for its execution. eg. I bought some ADI at 26c both today and yesterday ( which is marginally lower than the average price during that time) after selling at 30c 3 weeks ago. I had to wait 3 weeks to replace them but I did end up with a few thousand more freebies.During that 3 weeks I used the funds to turnover EKA for a few freebies there too.


----------



## Bigukraine

nioka said:


> What the charts don't show s the daily fluctuations in the Relative SPs. It is usually possible to buy at lower than the closing price and sell at higher than the closing price. I usually have a high buy order or a low sell order placed and wait for its execution. eg. I bought some ADI at 26c both today and yesterday ( which is marginally lower than the average price during that time) after selling at 30c 3 weeks ago. I had to wait 3 weeks to replace them but I did end up with a few thousand more freebies.During that 3 weeks I used the funds to turnover EKA for a few freebies there too.




smart man.... did the same thing but with rhm instead but yet to buy back into adi.... will wait a little longer market to hot in other areas imo at the min. and due to the lack of info being given from the ami partners they don't deserve my money at this point in time ...imo dyor


----------



## Miner

rock86 said:


> Condog I'm pretty sure we all know that AUT is going to create a gap from the other JVP's with Longhorn and Ipenama being drilled, however I do think with the recent marketing and promotion that AUT has been doing is the reason we are seeing an increasing number of trades over the past few days not there additional acreage (which has been known for some time now). Maybe the other JVP's can take a leaf out AUT's book and start promoting and marketing themselves as AUT is presently doing, good on the AUT BOD.






cicak_kupang said:


> [/B][/COLOR]
> 
> Yep agree there.  This has been on goat for a while.  While its great to have a company thats not rampng itself and playing its cards close to its chest with very smooth and calculated announcements, there is nothing wrong with a bit of self promotion. i know, fine line between self promotion and ramping.  under promotion can be just as worthless as self ramping.....






tomcat said:


> Not quite so obvious Condog,
> 
> No one knows what the forward plan is for hilcorp or how these fracced wells will produce.
> 
> They may pay back Hilcorp in 2-3 months or it may be longer...so AUT may be waiting longer for cashflow. Remember AUT only get paid once Hilcorp have re-couped their driling and fraccing costs.
> 
> Ever here the story about the small players being drilled out, with AUT's added percentage for their additional acreage comes additional risk associated with their ability in keeping up with capital requirements...no one really knows what Hilcorps forward plan is. Hilcorp will not wait for AUT to raise money if they decide to go nuts!! Look at how quickly they are smashing the wells at the moment. Who is to say how fast they accelerate their drilling program. The presentation from AUT provides a nice little schedule for forward drilling but none of the JVP I talk to can give me any indication of what the real forward plan for Hilcorp is.
> 
> I wouldnt be so confident in telling people what is blantently obvious when it is far from so....AUT may have more blue sky based on their acreage but be careful...as you say go in with your eyes wide open...LOL






jetblack said:


> con, you might find that I dont whinge about what I invest in.  Its great that you can swap and change your holdings in various companys.
> 
> You got this razzle n dazzle thing going on like a sideshow vendor.  Tomcat shares the same opinion on your simplistic well acceleration.
> 
> Look into how the jvp's are going to manage the acerage, I know thats foremost  with ADI management and they would concur that AUT will need a huge deal of cash to go forward/manage their lease and more than likely their portion of wells to be drilled.
> This is no sledge on AUT management just my opinion.
> 
> The presentation from AUT certainly got the desired result.
> 
> As for the do yourself a favour with the eyes wide open, yeaah right,,,lol.




Folks

Please help me.
I am totally confused.
All the above posts are related to AUT but posted in ADI.
I am sure there is  a separate thread for AUT too and why not post there ?
No offence not disagreeing the merit of AUT, the ADI only holders would like to see the posting on ADI in ADI thread and no matter how valuable pieces are there on AUT - please post in relevant thread.

I hold ADI and do not hold AUT.

Thanks


----------



## Agentm

there are 5 current asx listed companies actively operating in the eagleford that i am aware of, all with very interesting and different plays under their acreages

TXN operates in live oak and has a great position in the AWP  region that petrohawk had recently paid a premium for to get access to,
texon have a well drilling and testing the eagleford atm under the awp field

AZZ operates in the tougher economics zone, the oil zone..  the ADI jvp operates in the more favourable wet gas zone with TXN

these respective oil/wet gas/dry gas zones have vastly different economics due to well spacings for AZZ and very much a hard one to manage with the incredible costs needed to keep those oily acreages

ADI/AUT/EKA and TXN sit in the wet gas zone, and we all know that unlike AZZ the wet gas wells are being classified as gas wells in the sugarkane. all wells from live oak to dewitt have been classified that way by both  hilcorp and conocophillips

all players will get significant upside from their respective positions in the play, the biggest factor that will impact upside on all the players is how much the costs will be to hold the acreages considering their respective acreages and the equally important well spacings requirements that will be
needed to hold those acreages..  and how much cash they hold or debt they have is also a critical factor in valuations and future dilutions..  imho a few of the small caps in the ADI jvp will have little requirements for massive dilutions with vastly smaller % giving huge leverage into the play 

i totally agree with a lot of opinion that these players have amazing potential, and we have seen one player peak recently in AZZ then fall back heavily as major investors bailed and further again as keen investors spotted production figures reported did not match the reported figures to the RRC

imho this wont happen to the adi jvp. only accurate production figures are given, no hyped up ip's, and all ips and the oil/gas ratio's for the sugarkane are 100% exact to the operators TRRC releases

biggest downside is of course whether any of these players burn their respective investors with inaccurate figures and valuations, which imho makes it hard for the small cap sector to have institutional investors confidence in them.. we can only hope whats happening atm improves and the potential damage doesnt continue

so far i have seen 100% accurate announcements by the ADI jvp, equally i like the txn standard.. its no secret that i am seeing a lot of discrepencies that concern me from azz, as nothing matches up to their operators releases on the IP report nor monthly production to the TRRC.  adi has also not held back any long term production figures, which is vastly different to azz, and unlike azz,  they see absolutely no reason to not disclose these production figures and announced their 60 day flow rates and have been incredibly open on how good their wells are, even with the 2 wells being drilled for chalks completions and being 2200 and 3000 feet long, they are very impressive 60 day numbers and far superior to anything seen east of the adi acreages in the petrohawk mucmullen and lasalle fields.. 

this eagleford, and in the case of ADI, the sugarkane (which is eagleford and chalks) has incredible upside potential, but economics have to be there for upside to be realised.. 

keeping oil wells acreages is far easier for the big players like eog with deep pockets imho, and its very very evident if your a small cap, the oil regions will restrict your capacity to have negotiations in selling out if you cant hold your position

importantly hilcop have done an amazing job as operator, unlike azz, the hilcorp operator for adi has now nailed 19 day completions with a super efficient H&P rig, so rig costs and well costs are significantly down compared to the other aussie listed eagleford players.. azz announced in the last days that it took an entire month to drill their second well, so they have a long way to go before they can demonstrate the economics of cost efficient drilling like hilcorp have.. a well imho at 5000 feet can pay itself off in a month based on them achieving the same ratio on production rates from 5000 feet that the 2 shorter laterals so far have demonstrated.

the eagleford will become very relevant and valuable to many in the very near term imho, adi is imho very much under valued with hartleys seeing near term the sp reaching a .45 valuation.. that will come as these wells come online. so atm adi have a huge amount of potential in just the near term let alone the long term..

waiting for the market to accept the story, which in america is very very much understood but clearly not so in australia

a few years back i said this was the biggest discovery onshore in the us for a long long time, and laughed at.. i hear many US oil giants CEO's saying the same thing openly now..  misunderstood in australia for sure atm, but as soon as these next wells open up in the coming days to weeks a different story will unfold imho 

all imho and dyor


----------



## mick z

why are you even comparing azz to adi there not even in the same location, they are miles and miles away please keep the topic on track please.

cheers


----------



## Agentm

as i said in my previous post, the hartleys valuation will come into play as the wells are put into production

we see today that the morgan well is being fracced

come on hilcorp, deliver us a 5000 foot lateral please!

22 April 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Sugarloaf AMI within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas. 

Morgan #1H

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator that the multi-stage fracture stimulation operation on the Morgan #1H well commenced on 16 April 2010. The fracture stimulation design is similar to that recently successfully applied to the Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H wells.
Following completion of this operation the well will be flowed directly to sales.

Easley #1H 

The previously advised fracture stimulation on the Easley #1H has now been re-scheduled to commence following the conclusion of the Morgan #1H frac later this month.

Rancho Grande #1H

After reaching a Total Depth of 16,957 ft with a horizontal lateral of approximately 5,000 ft, production casing has now been run and cemented in preparation for a multi-stage fracture stimulation program which has been scheduled to commence following the conclusion of the Easley #1 frac during May 2010. As with the other Sugarloaf AMI wells, Rancho Grande #1H will be cleaned up and produced directly into sales upon conclusion of that operation. 


nice update there imho


----------



## AngusSmart

I really dont mind all the cross talk in this thread with AZZ AUT ADI EKA, TXN..

they are all at play in the similar area, some may have other interests elsewhere but its great to see how they are all going in one happy place..

i still only hold one of them. but have been lookin at a topup or another one of the 5..


----------



## WRONG'UN

You speak for yourself, Mick. As far as I'm concerned, Agentm's post is spot on - great post, Agentm!


----------



## rcm617

I think we will all be well rewarded in any of Eagleford players, I have shares in a few of them. AZZ does have a few problems but on an EV/BOE it is also the cheapest, $1.55 compared to $2.85 for ADI, so these problems are already in the share price. If the price of gas keeps dropping it may be an advantage to have higher oil to gas ratios.


----------



## Agentm

The Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas is getting a lot of buzz.

Some things being said about Eagle Ford:

* 50 drilling rigs should allow production to grow to nearly 40,000 barrels of oil per day within the next 24 months. That's roughly $1 billion worth of oil per year at current prices.

* Eagle Ford to yield more than $2 billion in oil and gas by 2013 and to increase steadily for at least 20 years. These numbers mean Eagle Ford will probably produce hundreds of billions worth of oil and gas over the next 30-40 years.

* On April 7, EOG Resources announced drilling results from 16 test wells drilled across a 120-mile trend. Based on the initial results and a core analysis, EOG believes it will produce 900 million barrels of crude from these wells over the next decade.


----------



## adobee

I think it may be time for a new thread called the Eagleford Oil Play for discussion and comparison of the many players rather than it taking place in ADI thread.. Which I think it does cause ADI seems to get the most interest and views..    Aside from AZZ, EKA, AUT, TXN, ADI are there any other small cap players getting amongst it .. more so the ones on ASX or other ASX with substanial exposure via share holdings etc in Petrohawk or EOG ..


----------



## Agentm

i dont know of any other ASX eagleford players myself adobee, AWE perhaps with their 32% holding in adi is the only other i can think of.. i hear they are pretty impressed with the shale play adi has.. which means imho the chance of them selling out is pretty low, making the share tightly held still for a long time to come

my friends in texas tell me the morgan frac is pretty advanced, the jvp say its 6 days in already.. i would have thought by mid to late next week the whole show will be possibly over.. 

5000 foot of morgan is about to be put on production.. we saw pioneer report their 5000 foot well near by and on trend Handy 1h

"*Initial production at the Handy well of 19.9 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (mmcfe/d) had a high liquids component*. This confirms the potential for liquids-rich production in Karnes County after similar results in Live Oak and DeWitt Counties. "

bring it on!


----------



## nioka

A question for Agentm.Or anyone else that can suggest an answer.

How long will it take Hillcorp to recover the drilling expenses if the wells perform as expected. Or better still an estimated time related to different levels of production.

My prediction is that there should be a positive cash flow for the three partners within months.


----------



## mick z

hi nokia,

             i would think they have recoup there out lay for the fraced well already i'm guessing would cost approx 
1.5 to 2mil per frac both wells have produced about 30mil barrels each so far so we should be getting cash flow from them now.
as for the other three wells each wells cost approx 7 to 8mil
maybe arround 4mths each ?

cheers


----------



## Lachlan6

Looking positive. Has spent a couple of months consolidating on low volume so the next sunstantial move should be to the upside.


----------



## Joe Blow

Asking questions or challenging the analysis of someone else is fair enough, but posting solely with the intention of provoking others is not.

Lets stay on topic and keep it civil please!


----------



## stickman

HI

iam looking to get back in having brought the first break at .19 asc /triangle and sold at .30,

maybe a re test at .19 ????


cheers


----------



## condog

This thing has 5000 posts and its becasue all eaglefor posting goes on in here. Its great i love it. Perhaps Joe can just temporarily accommodate us by allowing all 5 to be posted in here together. 

We all have our favourites and our reasons, and its healthy to discuss those and have them cross examined. 

One thread while the jvp is in operation like htis is far better.


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> This thing has 5000 posts and its becasue all eaglefor posting goes on in here. Its great i love it. Perhaps Joe can just temporarily accommodate us by allowing all 5 to be posted in here together.
> 
> We all have our favourites and our reasons, and its healthy to discuss those and have them cross examined.
> 
> One thread while the jvp is in operation like htis is far better.




condog, my view is that there is no problem for anyone to set up a specific thread on the asf forums which deal with a general topic covering all of the eagleford participants, so a thread specific to the comparisons of the eagleford players could  easily be the best place to discuss all the asx companies in the eagleford..  why not set one up? 







stickman

a revisit for adi into .19 will be welcomed by me, i would be chasing more at those levels myself.. good on you for achieving a healthy gain recently and lets see if it goes to .19 or .47


----------



## nioka

Joe Blow said:


> Asking questions or challenging the analysis of someone else is fair enough, but posting solely with the intention of provoking others is not.
> 
> Lets stay on topic and keep it civil please!




If this refers to my request then I'd like to say that the post was not intended to provoke in any way what so ever.Nor was it posed as a challenge. AgentM is the most informed  and reliable poster I have ever come across and his opinion is valued. 

The question asked was one that was asked of me and one which I felt that I would not answer correctly. I therefore opened the question to others that may have an opinion on this important question.


----------



## Miner

stickman said:


> HI
> 
> iam looking to get back in having brought the first break at .19 asc /triangle and sold at .30,
> 
> maybe a re test at .19 ????
> 
> 
> cheers



 Hi Stickman

Could you please elaborate your reading ADI to be tested at .19 ? What time frame and why do you think so?

Other chartists could you please come to the party and infer if you are in agreement with Stickman's observation / readin gof curve


----------



## lemontree

stickman said:


> HI
> 
> iam looking to get back in having brought the first break at .19 asc /triangle and sold at .30,
> 
> maybe a re test at .19 ????
> 
> 
> cheers




Looking at the chart at the moment, it's going sideways. I don't think it'll drop back to .19 again. In my own opinion i think the chart will begin an upward trend with increased volumes in the next few months.


----------



## Agentm

Agie82 said:


> Made a run through Cheapside, still EOG still drilling on Clampit 2nd well.  Saw a new pad on Marshall last week, turned out to be tank pad, 20 tanks on pad.  That makes 34 tanks on 2 locations on Marshall. I am sure EOG is using that as central location for Marshall, Clampit, and Brothers, (new location on property about 1/2 mile west of Marshall.  Also saw new rig moving in 6 miles south of Smiley toward Yorktown.  Koenning lease being drill by Riley Resouces.  New name in area.  Also, land owners are being paid for new pipeline coming in from south.  They say it is a right of way for 4 lines, 2 oil, 1 gas, and 1 other condensate.  Keep you informed as we hear other news in Gonzales.




i noticed the gonzales county ip report for that riley well did 836bopd with 793 mcf and 110 in water on the ip for 24 hours

the well was maali.. that region is in the oil zone and close to the eog operations

closer to home the eog operator has put in 3 permits in karnes for the lyssy cluster  4h 5h and 6h..  keeping busy just a few miles north of the adi acreages,  as is hawthorn chasing the edwards and dan hughes(eog?)  with their wells there also..

morgan site a few days b4 the frac


----------



## Kremmen

condog said:


> If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.




While true, don't forget that ADI has 1/3 the market cap and 3/4 the number of shares on issue of AUT. The income per $ invested in your above scenario is about the same for both companies.



Agentm said:


> i dont know of any other ASX eagleford players myself adobee, AWE perhaps with their 32% holding in adi is the only other i can think of.. i hear they are pretty impressed with the shale play adi has.. which means imho the chance of them selling out is pretty low, making the share tightly held still for a long time to come




It also means ADI would be an easy takeover target if AWE accepts the offer.


----------



## mick z

i wonder how much longer it will take for Hilcorp to recoup thier investment for the three frac's.
i would have thought they would of recouped it by now
oil has been over $80.00 a barrel during the frac's.

total of 48,031 barrels =  $3,842,480

gas of 404,000,000 mmcf = $ 1,616,000


grand total  $ 5,458,480

dont forget this is only for 30 & 60 day average and there one month behind in payments

any thought anyone ?


cheers


----------



## Agentm

QUARTERLY REPORT

FOR THE QUARTER ENDING 31 MARCH 2010

HIGHLIGHTS

The Sugarloaf AMI farmin program by Hilcorp Energy continued to gather pace during the quarter with three existing wells fracture stimulated, two wells (Kennedy and Weston) producing to sales at strong flow rates and three new wells (Easley, Morgan and Rancho Grande) drilled and completed in preparation for fracture stimulation as at mid April.

*Initial 30 day production rates of approximately 11.5mmcfe/d from each of the Kennedy and Weston wells are an excellent result and demonstrate that the Sugarkane reservoir comprising the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford shale combined are able to flow at strong commercial rates*.

These, and subsequently reported 60 day production rates, compare very favourably to the average regional Eagle Ford production results reported by Petrohawk from their Hawksville Field, predominately due to the higher gas liquids ratio in the Sugarloaf area.

*With the Kennedy well, only a 2,200 feet section of the lateral was fracture stimulated, indicating considerably higher production potential for future wells in the area with longer fracced laterals*. A recently reported well drilled by Pioneer located near to the Sugarloaf area (Handy Unit #1) achieved a reported initial production rate (IP) of 7.7 mmcf/d and 2,030 bbl/d (~34 mmcfe/d on a 12: 1 conversion basis) from a 4,400 feet fracced lateral.
This compares to the Kennedy well IP of 19.1 mmcfe/d from its 2,200 feet fracced lateral.

The three new Sugarloaf wells were drilled and completed with laterals of up to 5,000 feet, with the first of these wells (Morgan #1) being fracced as at the date of this report. The Easley and Rancho Grande fracs are scheduled to commence successively thereafter.

Significant improvements are already evident in the drilling times and costs for the new Sugarloaf wells, which will not only contribute towards enhanced well economics but also allow for a faster development of our acreage to maximize project returns.

The Sugarloaf AMI farm-in program by Hilcorp is expected to be completed by mid 2010, with the full scale development of our leases expected to commence by early 2011.

Subject to operator confirmation, there is potential for further wells to be drilled in our area during 2010.

In Yemen Block 74, mapping of reprocessed seismic data was concluded during the quarter which identified a new prospective trend in the southern part of the block, with several large multi-target prospects and leads of up to 80 mmbls of oil. Approximately 270 km of 2D seismic is targetted to be acquired by mid-year, followed by a three well drilling campaign expected to commence in late 2010.


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm said:


> QUARTERLY REPORT
> 
> FOR THE QUARTER ENDING 31 MARCH 2010
> 
> HIGHLIGHTS
> 
> The Sugarloaf AMI farmin program by Hilcorp Energy continued to gather pace during the quarter with three existing wells fracture stimulated, two wells (Kennedy and Weston) producing to sales at strong flow rates and three new wells (Easley, Morgan and Rancho Grande) drilled and completed in preparation for fracture stimulation as at mid April.
> 
> *Initial 30 day production rates of approximately 11.5mmcfe/d from each of the Kennedy and Weston wells are an excellent result and demonstrate that the Sugarkane reservoir comprising the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford shale combined are able to flow at strong commercial rates*.
> 
> These, and subsequently reported 60 day production rates, compare very favourably to the average regional Eagle Ford production results reported by Petrohawk from their Hawksville Field, predominately due to the higher gas liquids ratio in the Sugarloaf area.
> 
> *With the Kennedy well, only a 2,200 feet section of the lateral was fracture stimulated, indicating considerably higher production potential for future wells in the area with longer fracced laterals*. A recently reported well drilled by Pioneer located near to the Sugarloaf area (Handy Unit #1) achieved a reported initial production rate (IP) of 7.7 mmcf/d and 2,030 bbl/d (~34 mmcfe/d on a 12: 1 conversion basis) from a 4,400 feet fracced lateral.
> This compares to the Kennedy well IP of 19.1 mmcfe/d from its 2,200 feet fracced lateral.
> 
> The three new Sugarloaf wells were drilled and completed with laterals of up to 5,000 feet, with the first of these wells (Morgan #1) being fracced as at the date of this report. The Easley and Rancho Grande fracs are scheduled to commence successively thereafter.
> 
> Significant improvements are already evident in the drilling times and costs for the new Sugarloaf wells, which will not only contribute towards enhanced well economics but also allow for a faster development of our acreage to maximize project returns.
> 
> The Sugarloaf AMI farm-in program by Hilcorp is expected to be completed by mid 2010, with the full scale development of our leases expected to commence by early 2011.
> 
> Subject to operator confirmation, there is potential for further wells to be drilled in our area during 2010.
> 
> In Yemen Block 74, mapping of reprocessed seismic data was concluded during the quarter which identified a new prospective trend in the southern part of the block, with several large multi-target prospects and leads of up to 80 mmbls of oil. Approximately 270 km of 2D seismic is targetted to be acquired by mid-year, followed by a three well drilling campaign expected to commence in late 2010.




holding on to the yemen block 74 and doing a three well drill campaign.... good to see not all the eggs in one basket and could add value to ADI .... mmmm might be time to jump back in .... IMO DYOR


----------



## estseon

"Subject to operator confirmation, there is potential for further wells to be drilled in our area during 2010."

This what EME said on 14th April in explanation of its capital raising (it had other purposes as well):

"With recent successful results at Sugarloaf project, we are expecting that Hilcorp Energy Company ("Hilcorp") will continue to scale up the development operations. Three wells are nearing fracture stimulation operation at Hilcorp's cost, following which Empyrean will be required to contribute to its working interest of 3% to new development wells. "

It seems to be gathering momentum. ADI has cash on hand for its share. This appears to be very encouraging.

Has anyone discovered why Morgan was re-scheduled in advance of Easley? Morgan and Rancho appear to be either side of Kowalik on trend. Kowalik's initial flow was condensate rich (>300bbls per 1mmcfg).


----------



## Tordilla Kid

AgentM, 

The three Lyssy wells you mentioned earlier as recent approvals were simply amended to change field name from wildcat to Eagleville (Eagle Ford). They've already been drilled as has Orr 1H.  The rig is now on Orr 2H pad.  

There are two new EOG wells approved in Wilson County the Borgfeld Unit 1H and 2H about six kilometers north of the Lyssy/Orr wells.  Two new wells approved on the Orr lease as well 3H and 4H.  So still plenty of action in that vicinity.

So far in April, EOG has amended existing wells to change to Eagleville (Eagle Ford) and added a well or two to all their "well clusters" across the play.  The temporary field rules were approved last month.

TK:guitar:


----------



## rock86

To be honest, we all know what they have said about Sugarloaf in their quarterly. We know that it is highly profitable, the results on our acreage are above average, drilling costs have decreased, and (assumed) the drilling program was going to step up in 2011.

The most positive thing I take from the quarterly is that they are performing more seizmic data analysis on Yemen which in the report looks promising, and if results come back will drill a 3 well program. If results are positive ADI will be in blue sky by the 1st quarter in 2011


----------



## Hatchy

Bigukraine said:


> holding on to the yemen block 74 and doing a three well drill campaign.... good to see not all the eggs in one basket and could add value to ADI .... mmmm might be time to jump back in .... IMO DYOR




Perhaps this is the reason for the trading hold pending equity raising announcement that has come through this morning. 
I would have though that ADI was in a fairly solid position as far as equity goes, perhaps not.


----------



## lemontree

Trading halt until the 29th of April. Something about "seeking the trading halt pending an announcement in relation to equity financing"


----------



## Miner

Hatchy said:


> Perhaps this is the reason for the trading hold pending equity raising announcement that has come through this morning.
> I would have though that ADI was in a fairly solid position as far as equity goes, perhaps not.






lemontree said:


> Trading halt until the 29th of April. Something about "seeking the trading halt pending an announcement in relation to equity financing"




Trading Halt announcement and no commentary from Agentm or Condog yet seems to be unusual .

I thought they do not sleep  to sniff any gaseous smell from ADI - but probably long weekend effect.

Any way more seriously I am eager to know why the halt.


----------



## Agentm

Miner said:


> Trading Halt announcement and no commentary from Agentm or Condog yet seems to be unusual .
> 
> I thought they do not sleep  to sniff any gaseous smell from ADI - but probably long weekend effect.
> 
> Any way more seriously I am eager to know why the halt.




miner, the reason for the halt was made clear in the announcement, page 2 detailed raising equity finance.

i recall an agm where adi was keen to raise debt and also minimise cap raisings, and it appears the need to have capital in 2010 despite a considerable cash reserve in the bank indicates to me some forward planning is going on.

somehow i think there is less and less likelihood of there not being further drilling in the AMI..  imho its becoming obvious there is an argument that "game on" is about to be the war cry.. go club sugarkane


----------



## Lucky_Country

Umm well lets hope its short term pain long term gain scenario.

Flows from the 3 new well should be conclusive once and for all on the area that ADI has a hold in.

Forward drilling will hopefully be increased the US econemy is on the mend and with it comes a higher oil price.

Still a long play ahead for ADI until the full value of this field is reached.


----------



## Agentm

i think getting new blood into the share registry is a brilliant move myself.

conoco has put an new permit in karnes county called edith gray 1h


pretty near the bordovsky well

hilcorp put in another pilgrim permit in gonzales, making that 2 for that county


----------



## estseon

I thought that EME's 2nd placing this month was just to 'catch up' with ADI & AUT and be in a position to fund further drilling in S/L this year but, as agent remarks, this is suggesting an acceleration of plans. I thought AUT to be pretty much on par with ADI for S/L drilling. So, perhaps it might be a case of watch that space.

Hilcorp's efficiency in drilling just seems to be getting better and better. They must be scything the costs as well. We're not even 4 months into this year and they've drilled 4 wells, fracced 3 (including Kowalik), drilling on a 5th well is in progress, fraccing of a 4th well is in progress and they originally reserved 18 months to complete the initial programme. If they had originally said that they would drill 7 new wells and frac 10 in 6 months, as is now looking likely, we'd have fallen over laughing.

So plans may well have changed. Why stall the momentum?

I confess to being a bit gutted by the capital raising, particularly in advance of IP figures for Morgan and Rancho, but this rate of drilling progress was just wishful thinking when they were drilling Easley.


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> i think getting new blood into the share registry is a brilliant move myself.
> 
> conoco has put an new permit in karnes county called edith gray 1h
> 
> 
> pretty near the bordovsky well
> 
> hilcorp put in another pilgrim permit in gonzales, making that 2 for that county




Agentm one of your positives about ADI in previous post was that they didn't need capital raising with money in the bank.
Now your saying getting new blood into the registry is a good move with the capital raising?
Aren't the shares being diluted by this?
Can you explain why this is good or necessary?


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> i think getting new blood into the share registry is a brilliant move myself.
> 
> conoco has put an new permit in karnes county called edith gray 1h
> 
> 
> pretty near the bordovsky well
> 
> hilcorp put in another pilgrim permit in gonzales, making that 2 for that county




 Seeing that I promote thinking outside the square I'm going to suggest a possible partner that will prospect the Yemen leases. That sort of new blood would be an asset and could signal a boost to the SP.

Maybe ?.


----------



## jetblack

Agentm said:


> i think getting new blood into the share registry is a brilliant move myself.
> 
> conoco has put an new permit in karnes county called edith gray 1h
> 
> 
> pretty near the bordovsky well
> 
> hilcorp put in another pilgrim permit in gonzales, making that 2 for that county




Agree Agent, thats exactly what ADI are after.

Hilcorp are powering through this play at a rate of knots. Management are on the ball, in, or be drilled out, they need the cash to keep up with Hilcorp. I'm sure ADI management know that they are getting close to becomming producer status.



Drill away, drill away.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm one of your positives about ADI in previous post was that they didn't need capital raising with money in the bank.
> Now your saying getting new blood into the registry is a good move with the capital raising?
> Aren't the shares being diluted by this?
> Can you explain why this is good or necessary?




jancha

hilcorp have done their thing, no more wells needed in the ami

so why raise capital?

think it through yourself.. either they need it or they dont..

my view is that they will need the capital, and everyone was aware there was a need for new blood and for a cap raising, the timing is first class, on the eve of some amazing progress, with wells being drilled in 20 days, and the fraccing is going ahead full steam..

time to introduce the share to the new generation, and time to see some welcome positive news flows and some positive news ahead

you can always look at negative and argue that the dilution is such a bad thing and the end of everything.. but imho capital is needed, and a new chapter as producer is about to transpire..

not seeing anything too negative in it at all.. just part and parcel of what is needed imho


----------



## bazollie

The equity raising that's happening now has been timed to perfection IMHO.
Hilcorp are in the process of some serious fraccing and with some positive news ( fingers crossed but they have the runs on the board) we should see renewed interest in ADI.

What better time to entice some new major shareholders to the company than now! A chance where these new majors could see some serious appreciation in the SP if the news follows suit with the other drillers in our area.

I thought that there would be no more equity / dilution but I would rather see them trying to raise say $5M now , than when the SP was at say 10cents!

The next 3-4 weeks should be very interesting, and with the results released by others next door, ADI could be a May Stock Tipping Winner!

AUT have had a good run, now it's time for ADI to kick some gassy butts!

Regards
bazollie


----------



## condog

Under normal circumstances most dilution concerns me. But given ADI's progress in the AMI a CR to persue further wells asap in the AMI will add far more value to the company in the medium term. Assuming thats what its for of course.

Consider the worth of a multiple extra wells compared to the dilution of 5 or 10% at 3c. Its never nice to have dilution, but sometimes it is actually for the shareholders benefit., and right now appears to be one of those times.


----------



## basilio

It would be really great for ADI to tie up it's capital raising before the capital markets are well and truly roiled with issues around the Greece et al debt problems.

And you know,  today is probably a equally great day for a stock to be closed. If I was ADI I wouldn't be in a hurry to reopen for a few days


----------



## Sdajii

I openly confess to being somewhat green, but why did they say "raising equity finance" rather than simply "capital raising"? Is this significant in some way or is it just said colourfully for the sake of it? If they are in such a strong financial position in that the near future should have oil sales bringing in plenty of money, could they be getting a loan rather than having a SPP?

One thing which seems very odd to me (but likely has a perfectly good explanation I am simply too green to see) is that everyone says this is a perfect time for raising capital. This seems like nonsense to me; if the SP is about to soar, why not raise capital at 40-60c rather than at the current price of under 30c? Sure, it's better to do it now than a few months ago, but surely any time before an expected increase in SP is a poor time for capital raising. As I said, maybe I'm wrong and if so please set me straight.



bazollie said:


> The next 3-4 weeks should be very interesting, and with the results released by others next door, ADI could be a May Stock Tipping Winner!




I certainly hope so!


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> the timing is first class, on the eve of some amazing progress, with wells being drilled in 20 days, and the fraccing is going ahead full steam..
> 
> not seeing anything too negative in it at all.. just part and parcel of what is needed imho




I agree, but allow me to add a different spin on things (Sdajii this should answer your question). Timing is indeed spot on perfect. We're at a stage of having drilled 3 wells, but without results on them as yet. We've learn from the Kow that things can go wrong at just about any stage in the operation, and fraccing is included. 

The board doesn't want to risk the company. If a frac goes wrong, or 3 fracs go wrong we're right back at 15c, and going out to institutions for more money (or having them come to you) is bound to be as hard as getting blood from a stone. 

It's time to get some cash under the belt to drive this thing forwards, and not much has been said about it, but how good is it to have the option of exploring Yemen? 12 months ago it was a near certainty that it would need to be sold, something I wasn't all that happy with at the time. It's great that this company has a field that is proving itself and also an opportunity for some major exploration. 

Time to re-rate.


----------



## Sdajii

So basically they are hedging their bets in case the three fracs go bad? For all three to go bad, wouldn't a scenario of "Oh, crap, there's no hydrocarbons down there!" be required? Stuffing all three of them up due to human error/mechanical failure seems pretty unlikely (as does a lack of oil for that matter). If they are feeling the need to hedge their bets I am a little concerned at their level of confidence in operations. Then again, maybe I am just more of a risk taker than most, so going for all or nothing doesn't seem as good an idea to most people, including the ADI board, as it does to me.


----------



## rock86

I highly doubt that we will see any of these fraccs stuffed up like Kowalik (touch wood), and I agree with Sdajii here that I don't even think there will be a SPP here, but a line of credit/loan of some sort if needed by the company. All this points to is the ramping up of this field, second half of 2010 will see a fair few additional wells being drilled and fracced IMO, that's what I take from this.

The Morgan frac should be pretty close too, I'd say we'll have news on it either next monday, tuesday


----------



## Hatchy

Sdajii and Rock86

It's not that these fracs are going to fail, but there's money that is needed going forward. What would you rather, the company be run poorly with poor forward planing or to be run in a way such that it negotiates the risk that is presently here?

The board has done a great job in staying this company through dire financial times, and it is through this careful management we see ADI in it's current position. 

I reiterate that I believe it will be an institutional raising as this is the least messy, and it's over with the soonest.

We'll all know in a few days.... Enough of this speculation.


----------



## chand

Hi,

I think it will be a semi quasi equity raising like some sort of convertible bonds (hopefully priced at well above current market prices and maturing in say 2 to 3 years)


----------



## gdaf

we could bet on it - enough speculation to get a real pool going 

My bet is they issue options that expire in June 2012 for a strike price of .30, or .25? Should be a 1b company by then


----------



## Lucky_Country

Personally Im more focused on the wells than the capital raising.

Sure dilution is not something anyone wants but capital is needed.

Yemen will hopefully be kept drilled and producing after all it has been a long term asset held by the company and lots of work has been done on this project and sounds to tempting to sell.

Sugarloaf will be fraced producing, drilling fracing producing etc etc. 

Doesnt matter how much money is in the bank or how many shares are on issue its the results that count.


----------



## jetblack

I cant see it being a rights issue or options issue for that matter, its too messy in the short time they have.

They will probably raise up to about about 15% of their issued share capital to institutional investors. Strike price to be determined but I would not discount it being around 25c. Agent M hit on it earlier with the new blood into the company. 

Management are gearing up for a Hilcorp explosion of the Eagleford.


----------



## WRONG'UN

The fear with a CR is that the additional shares created will dilute the value of the existing shares. But this implies that the value of the company remains the same. However, unless the funds raised are used to feather the nests of the directors, or are frittered away in overheads, value will be added to the company, perhaps many times the value of the funds raised. I am sure this will prove to be the case with ADI.
The current directors have managed ADI prudently throughout the GFC, to the extent they are now well positioned to fully capitalise on the exciting resource that they are sitting on. Whatever their plans are for the CR, they have my trust.


----------



## Agentm

jetblack said:


> I cant see it being a rights issue or options issue for that matter, its too messy in the short time they have.
> 
> They will probably raise up to about about 15% of their issued share capital to institutional investors. Strike price to be determined but I would not discount it being around 25c. Agent M hit on it earlier with the new blood into the company.
> 
> Management are gearing up for a Hilcorp explosion of the Eagleford.




cheers jetblack.. i think we are on the same page here




WRONG'UN said:


> The fear with a CR is that the additional shares created will dilute the value of the existing shares. But this implies that the value of the company remains the same. However, unless the funds raised are used to feather the nests of the directors, or are frittered away in overheads, value will be added to the company, perhaps many times the value of the funds raised. I am sure this will prove to be the case with ADI.
> The current directors have managed ADI prudently throughout the GFC, to the extent they are now well positioned to fully capitalise on the exciting resource that they are sitting on. Whatever their plans are for the CR, they have my trust.




value comes through the wells flowing and getting you increased reserves, through using capital to gain more assets or to expand the ones you have and further achieve value

cap raising doesn't mean you lose the value, the value is kept in cash unless spent. a point missed by just about everyone i think

plenty of time to see the well results achieve some solid sp gains .. imho each well will cause a significant re rating of adi and with the reserves upgrade becoming a short term probability, looks good for new blood and a healthy short and long term future in every respect. including yemen!

good luck to all holders


----------



## Ramblin Round

So if they need cap, why don't they just sell off other asetts such as Yemen ? I thought that's what they were going to do...sell Block 7 ? Hell.....a couple weeks ago Petrohawk sold out 800+ million $$$ worth of the sacred Haynesville shale, a play they have been in for quite some time to gather more cap for the Eagle Ford play. What is the strategy for Adelphi if they are not selling Yemen ?


----------



## choppy

Ramblin Round said:


> So if they need cap, why don't they just sell off other asetts such as Yemen ? I thought that's what they were going to do...sell Block 7 ? Hell.....a couple weeks ago Petrohawk sold out 800+ million $$$ worth of the sacred Haynesville shale, a play they have been in for quite some time to gather more cap for the Eagle Ford play. What is the strategy for Adelphi if they are not selling Yemen ?




Petrohawk sold 50% of its Haynesville midstream assets (pipelines, gas treatment plants, etc) to Kinder Morgan (a pipeline company).  They didn't sell any acreage.  I dont know that ADI really owns any midstream assetts that they could monetize.


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> So if they need cap, why don't they just sell off other asetts such as Yemen ? I thought that's what they were going to do...sell Block 7 ? Hell.....a couple weeks ago Petrohawk sold out 800+ million $$$ worth of the sacred Haynesville shale, a play they have been in for quite some time to gather more cap for the Eagle Ford play. What is the strategy for Adelphi if they are not selling Yemen ?




no one is saying yemen is not for sale, and block 7 was sold a long time ago and the cash is in the bank for adi.. last week they said it was still active in selling the remaining block rambling



choppy said:


> Petrohawk sold 50% of its Haynesville midstream assets (pipelines, gas treatment plants, etc) to Kinder Morgan (a pipeline company).  They didn't sell any acreage.  I dont know that ADI really owns any midstream assetts that they could monetize.




choppy, adi are a little different to the other jvp partners, in that they hold both considerable cash reserves and also have a block of acreages in yemen.

they have stated the block is up for sale, but they also need to be prepared for the liabilities of drilling should that not occur.

hilcorp will require some considerable capital from the jvp partners when drilling commences on the acreages, so adi is preparing themselves for all eventualities and outcomes in the near term the way i see it. and giving themselves a potential injection of new capital from new investors which imho is critical at this point also..  

unpopular as always a cap raising is, but imho its part and parcel of development. 

imho the value about to be attained by the jvp through the current wells being opened up and the injection of new blood is excellent timing and will be positive for adi long term.. no one can argue a cap raising will be popular with current holders but its necessary and well timed imho

all imho and dyor


----------



## jetblack

Agentm said:


> hilcorp will require some considerable capital from the jvp partners when drilling commences on the acreages, so adi is preparing themselves for all eventualities and outcomes in the near term the way i see it. and giving themselves a potential injection of new capital from new investors which imho is critical at this point also..
> 
> unpopular as always a cap raising is, but imho its part and parcel of development.
> 
> imho the value about to be attained by the jvp through the current wells being opened up and the injection of new blood is excellent timing and will be positive for adi long term.. no one can argue a cap raising will be popular with current holders but its necessary and well timed imho
> 
> all imho and dyor




On the same page Agent.


Add to that the fact that alot of smaller oilers can get drilled out (this has been brought up before)
Hilcorp raised up to 300mil (by my memory) not to spend at the local shops, but to do some serious drilling. You can bet the jvps are just as astonished at the rate these guys are going. 


Pay for it or lose it. Hilcorp are not wasting time, as I mentioned in a prior post the reality will be ADI becomming a producer and management would know this.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Well if there's any good news out of this then this might be it. I pass on my compliments to the Board for taking a careful approach to future "possible" expenditures for the corporation. It seems to be a wise strategy and a good worst case scenario to be prepared for such things such as the need to furthur drilling Yemen if necessary.

The downside is that it may be a gloomy projection on paper for ADI and perhaps will shun some investors, but knowing what is going on in Texas and seeing it here with my own eyes the ADI and AUT seem derisked to a level that I am comfortable with.

IMHO and DYOR, of course. I'm no expert. Just watching the rigs go up over here that's all. And MAN are they going up fast !


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> Well if there's any good news out of this then this might be it. I pass on my compliments to the Board for taking a careful approach to future "possible" expenditures for the corporation. It seems to be a wise strategy and a good worst case scenario to be prepared for such things such as the need to furthur drilling Yemen if necessary.
> 
> The downside is that it may be a gloomy projection on paper for ADI and perhaps will shun some investors, but knowing what is going on in Texas and seeing it here with my own eyes the ADI and AUT seem derisked to a level that I am comfortable with.
> 
> IMHO and DYOR, of course. I'm no expert. Just watching the rigs go up over here that's all. And MAN are they going up fast !




been watching the rig activity closely myself,, and totally agree

up fast.. but have you noticed how fast they come down with hilcorp.. 3 weeks!  and they are putting in cemented liners and  pulling them apart!!

on a side note.. adi has been suspended trade until the announcement on the equity is issued


----------



## Ramblin Round

Being around the oilfield most of my life, I must add. It is AMAZING............I say again........... AMAZING the turnaround time from drill bit to production on these wells. The perfection of this drilling process has been the talk around here lately. Nothing better than a good operator to reduce overhead for these wells. Amazing production these are. Talk the talk, walking the walk is what I see.


----------



## prgudula

30 April 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
ADELPHI TO RAISE $5.5 MILLION TO PROGRESS SUGARLOAF DEVELOPMENT
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi” or “the Company”) is pleased to advise that it has resolved
to raise $5.5 million through a placement of 22 million ordinary shares at $0.25 per share
(“Placement”), predominately to institutional and sophisticated investor clients of Hartleys
Limited, which acted as Broker to the Offer in respect of the Placement. Adelphi’s long-term
cornerstone shareholder AWE Limited has confirmed its ongoing support for Adelphi and has
committed to take up a pro-rata share in the Placement to maintain its 32.5% shareholding in
the Company.
Funds raised pursuant to the Placement will be primarily used to fund the development
program at Sugarloaf following the rapid progress made by our operator in relation to the
recent farm-in wells, where flow rates of up to 1,132 bopd and 4.4mmcfg/d have been
achieved.
Commenting on the success of the Placement, Adelphi’s Managing Director, Chris Hodge
stated:
“As demonstrated by the sustained strong oil and gas flows achieved from the first two wells
on production at Sugarloaf, which we consider to be comparable with the best achieved in
the Eagle Ford, Adelphi’s perseverance at Sugarloaf is now beginning to reap rewards. We
are excited by the potential upside offered by the ongoing work program - with results from
the 3 wells that have recently been drilled expected to be reported over the coming 4-6
weeks.
We are also very pleased with the strong support that has been received in respect of the
Placement, which will ensure Adelphi remains well funded to progress the Sugarloaf
development.”
The Placement shares will be issued pursuant to the Company’s 15% capacity under ASX
Listing Rule 7.1. On completion of the Placement, Adelphi will have cash reserves of
approximately $9.5 million.
Adelphi’s latest investor presentation will be released separately this morning to ASX.


----------



## Kremmen

prgudula said:


> raise $5.5 million through a placement of 22 million ordinary shares at $0.25 per share(“Placement”)



The upside to this is that getting a large placement at a small discount to market rate shows the amount of confidence the market has. The downside is the dilution. This has halved ADI's advantage over AUT in the joint venture profits.


----------



## jancha

prgudula said:


> 30 April 2010
> Company Announcements Platform
> Australian Stock Exchange Limited
> Exchange Centre
> 20 Bond Street
> SYDNEY NSW 2000
> Via ASX Online
> ADELPHI TO RAISE $5.5 MILLION TO PROGRESS SUGARLOAF DEVELOPMENT
> Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi” or “the Company”) is pleased to advise that it has resolved
> to raise $5.5 million through a placement of 22 million ordinary shares at $0.25 per share
> (“Placement”), predominately to institutional and sophisticated investor clients of Hartleys
> Limited, which acted as Broker to the Offer in respect of the Placement. Adelphi’s long-term
> cornerstone shareholder AWE Limited has confirmed its ongoing support for Adelphi and has
> committed to take up a pro-rata share in the Placement to maintain its 32.5% shareholding in
> the Company.
> Funds raised pursuant to the Placement will be primarily used to fund the development
> program at Sugarloaf following the rapid progress made by our operator in relation to the
> recent farm-in wells, where flow rates of up to 1,132 bopd and 4.4mmcfg/d have been
> achieved.
> Commenting on the success of the Placement, Adelphi’s Managing Director, Chris Hodge
> stated:
> “As demonstrated by the sustained strong oil and gas flows achieved from the first two wells
> on production at Sugarloaf, which we consider to be comparable with the best achieved in
> the Eagle Ford, Adelphi’s perseverance at Sugarloaf is now beginning to reap rewards. We
> are excited by the potential upside offered by the ongoing work program - with results from
> the 3 wells that have recently been drilled expected to be reported over the coming 4-6
> weeks.
> We are also very pleased with the strong support that has been received in respect of the
> Placement, which will ensure Adelphi remains well funded to progress the Sugarloaf
> development.”
> The Placement shares will be issued pursuant to the Company’s 15% capacity under ASX
> Listing Rule 7.1. On completion of the Placement, Adelphi will have cash reserves of
> approximately $9.5 million.
> Adelphi’s latest investor presentation will be released separately this morning to ASX.




I'd like to get hold of some more shares at 25c.
So much for new blood Agentm.
Tho i'm a long term holder of the company i guess i don't qualify as a sophisticated holder
Maybe the sp will go below or hang around the 25c mark for a few months.


----------



## lemontree

Since ADI has released a presentation much like AUT did last week. Perhaps new blood will be attracted!


----------



## potchip

"institutional and sophisticated investor clients of Hartleys
Limited, which acted as Broker to the Offer in respect of the Placement"

Does this change Hartley's price target given the dilution then or was it already factored in? The recent push on AUT may not be a coincidence then.

Not too fussed given the new investors shouldn't introduce too much volatility. However with the cash injection, the emphasis has shifted a bit from operational excellence(which hilcorp has proven) to strategy.


----------



## nioka

potchip said:


> "institutional and sophisticated investor clients of Hartleys
> Limited, which acted as Broker to the Offer in respect of the Placement"
> 
> Does this change Hartley's price target given the dilution then or was it already factored in? The recent push on AUT may not be a coincidence then.
> 
> Not too fussed given the new investors shouldn't introduce too much volatility. However with the cash injection, the emphasis has shifted a bit from operational excellence(which hilcorp has proven) to strategy.




I'll bet that Hartleys will be promoting the stock at a much higher price than they paid. I'm annoyed that they had the offer at a discount price and the offer was not made to all shareholders. AWE were given a pro rata issue for them to maintain their percentage holding, but then they are represented on the board so they were able to look after themselves. Hartleys were handed about $1M in easy profit.


----------



## jancha

lemontree said:


> Since ADI has released a presentation much like AUT did last week. Perhaps new blood will be attracted!




Yes the more exposure the more likelyhood of new blood but wouldn't you opt for AUT over ADI if you were looking to come in?


----------



## jancha

nioka said:


> I'll bet that Hartleys will be promoting the stock at a much higher price than they paid. I'm annoyed that they had the offer at a discount price and the offer was not made to all shareholders. AWE were given a pro rata issue for them to maintain their percentage holding, but then they are represented on the board so they were able to look after themselves. Hartleys were handed about $1M in easy profit.




I'm with you on this nioka.
Been holding this company for a long time now. 
Just wondering if Agentm is a sophisticated investor?
Where's my discount?


----------



## rock86

You can say what you want about the equity raising, I for one am not over the moon about it but at least we know that there is going to be alot more action on the AMI.

What made me happy today was the release of an investor presentation. WOW it's about frickin time they did some promoting of this world class play, let's hope this promoting brings some increased volume and apreciation to the SP.


----------



## estseon

If you adjust the cash balance for the Yemen reserve, ADI and AUT (which both have a 10% WI) now seem to have comparable cash that can be allocated to S/L of about AUD 6m.

The cost of a well (in one of the 31/3 presentations) is about USD 7m. The FX is about AUD = 0.93 USD. That all suggests that both ADI & AUT have cash allocated to S/L sufficient for about 8 wells......

They are still quiet about proposals for 2010 post completion of the farm out programme.

Perhaps that should be the focus rather than the dilution. Dilution can be partially / wholly compensated for by bringing forward production and increasing NPV values. They seem to be using a 10% discount rate ("NPV 10").

Note that ADI reports that there are only 6m option shares available to be exercised by directors at 23 cents - that would not have raised the cash raised by the placement.

EME is cashed up as well.

I don't follow EKA and haven't done any calcs but they've recently raised cash.


----------



## Bigukraine

looks like me getting out at .31 was a good move in the short term and will re-enter after things stabilize ....... I feel for the long term holders not fair to them and at .25c the shoe could of been on the other foot and you guys could of been saying "i told you so" to myself, dilution was going to happen so why not give a bit to the average shareholder....


----------



## potchip

Rock86, I don't think it's about advertising the play in general. The different small caps in the play are currently receiving different levels of interest.

Following recent successes ADI has been the most de-risked out of the similar caps and different people with different risk preferences may well choose to invest differently.  However this now may change, as Estseon has pointed out and I touched on, there hasn't been a lot of information on the 'future direction' of ADI, in terms of beyond the farm-in what's in store. 

I read it thus: 
Short term ADI will try to promote interest, and has started with the long overdue presentation. It however is nothing new. Just reading by the wording of the announcement the cap raising is not underwritten as such we shouldn't speak about as if the cash is already in the bank. See EKA's recent raising (to existing share holders mind you) which was undersubscribed. ADI has an interest to maintain the share price leading up to the raising to respectable levels. If so, some clear view of the future direction is essential.

Yemen I assume is about oil, and the success with hilcorp so far does not extend it to that area, so I wouldn't assess the potential cash in the same basket. 

Interesting to see how ADI wishes to position itself now. Whether the risk profile will suit existing investors it's up to the individuals.

Disclosure: I do hold ADI.


----------



## Ramblin Round

While it may seem foolish and immature I look at myself as a long-term holder of ADI at least for a few years (3-5). If other investors can absorb this current dilution you're still in a company with no debt and mucho money in the bank with wells in place in the largest oil and gas play in North America. It has been totally derisked on the Texas side because we live it and see it daily. How to explain this to worldwide investors will be the difficult issue. Exposure is the key...more exposure to EVERYone about ADI's position along with the other JVP as well will hlep springboard this thing later this year.

That's why I find the recent presentation pleasing and easily absorbed with a bit of prior knowledge. My advice is to start hustling more Texas money into this thing to attract large investors and get on the map. Even in the most recent articels AZZ and AUT are mentioned, but ADI is invisible. Alex Forcke if you're reading this do some PR in the states man....get with it !!

If there's ever anything to get you excited about, read this article and blog. I still can't beleive my land and surrounding cities are in this thing and this is what I am seeing. This article is spot on to what is going on here in our small towns in Texas.


http://eaglefordshaleblog.com/


Even with the current price the .25 is still a win for me as I see furthur down the road the capability of this company when production hits full scale. It should still be so for others too that can see long-term advantages of this play. I would like to hear the thoughts of others here as well.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I just had a thought. 5.5 mill is barely enough to cover expenses for just one well. What are their plans for this money ? One more rig ? _Maybe_ two ? Etc. ?

Thoughts and comments ? In the oilfiled 5 mill is not that much money. I hope it was worth it.


----------



## jancha

Ramblin Round said:


> I just had a thought. 5.5 mill is barely enough to cover expenses for just one well. What are their plans for this money ? One more rig ? _Maybe_ two ? Etc. ?
> 
> Thoughts and comments ? In the oilfiled 5 mill is not that much money. I hope it was worth it.




Didn't they say in their presentation that they were funding 10% of the future drill costs? 
How does that equate to one or two wells?


----------



## Ramblin Round

> Didn't they say in their presentation that they were funding 10% of the future drill costs?
> How does that equate to one or two wells?




I know. That's exactly what I'm trying to figure out. Did somebody miss a zero on that 5.5 ? 50.5 million yes. 5.5 million to fund 10% of all future production will need to be explained in a manner in which I can understand it. I must be too dumb to know how 5 million will fund 10% of future prodution when it's $100,000 on average per day to operate a rig.


----------



## estseon

General News:

"The US administration has banned oil drilling in new areas of the US coast while the cause of the oil spill off Louisiana is investigated."

Don't know if offshore in the Gulf of Mexico ranks as competition but it can't be bad for us.

Ramblin:

ADI used an estimated well cost of $7m in its presentation released yesterday. In view of the speed with which they drilled Rancho, your $100k/day would account for little over a third of that cost estimate. Sure, they have other costs and then the fracture stimulation but $7m looks like it is more than comfortable.

ADI's share of that cost is $700k. Present cash (less about $3m for Yemen) would cover 8 wells. Payout is 4 - 6 months per the presentation. So, if they drill with just 2 rigs, the development of S/L should be covered by that capital and and by sales cash - those 2 rigs have to complete the farm-out obligations on Longhorn and on Ipanema before they can return to S/L.

Kennedy and Weston should be paid out soon and Morgan should be paid out by the end of October at the latest using their payout estimates etc. Then Easley and Rancho should be paid out by the end of November on the basis of their fraccing schedule..

What the capital might not service is the 2011 ramp up in operations. How many rigs??? We cannot possibly guess at this stage.


----------



## Ramblin Round

The offshore play affects the economics of oil and gas but from an investor perspective it is an entirely different arena with entirely different players and expenses, etc.

Of notable discussion however is that Hilcorp was (is) primarily an offshore production company to begin with. If anything they've just found their onshore project's motivation. lol.......


----------



## WRONG'UN

Mention has been made of the NYSE listed stocks with Eagle Ford interests.
The weekly relative strength chart, Conoco Phillips / Dow Jones is attached. COP has been outperforming the DOW for several weeks, and the relative strength has now reached resistance at the level of the May 2009 swing high. If it can clear the resistance I'm thinking long COP, short DOW - it might be good insurance if the DOW decides to pack a sad.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yes. JP Morgan has been hot on the investment side along with Wells Fargo and many other heavy hitters. Pioneer PXD has been on par with COP this past week even through the rig mess offshore with BP. 

I'm out of play money and can't do anything but sit back and watch the stocks go up  but yes I've noticed too. Maybe Wall Street will take a bite out on every player in Eagle Ford and we'll really see some action stateside.


----------



## philly

What's going on? On the back of positive news the SP for ADI  goes down albeit on low volumes whilst AUT and EKA are both up on higher volumes. The news is the same the effect is opposite.


----------



## jancha

philly said:


> What's going on? On the back of positive news the SP for ADI  goes down albeit on low volumes whilst AUT and EKA are both up on higher volumes. The news is the same the effect is opposite.




Maybe holders of ADI jumping ship after capital raising went to sophisticated investors.
Agentm with your posting regarding EKA falling short of the capital raising & ADI not taking the chance of that happening & not offering to the public is BS.
Wouldn't AWE have taken up any slack if there was a short fall?
I think AUT is starting to look more attractive & slowly over time will change over.
Cant believe you'd be happy with ADI's capital raising unless you were one of the sophisticated investors.


----------



## Agentm

jancha.. keep it civil please.. 

my posts are all imho and dyor.. i dont need your personal abuse thanks


----------



## 1968BELBAY

adi seems to be full of bs to me how can aut and eka move up and adi move down not happy i will hold only cause im in to deep........


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> jancha.. keep it civil please..
> 
> my posts are all imho and dyor.. i dont need your personal abuse thanks




Dont mean to be abusing you Agentm but surely you dont believe that had ADI gone public they would have fallen short? 
Would you not have preferred the option of buying in at 25c as yourself being a long term holder?
You seem to praise the management on the decisions they make but i dont see anything positive for the sp or in particular the confidence in long term holders as myself out of this.
Who are they looking after by keeping this capital raising to just sophisticated holders?
Who will company management be looking after in the future?


----------



## barney

jancha said:


> Maybe holders of ADI jumping ship after capital raising went to sophisticated investors.
> Agentm with your posting regarding EKA falling short of the capital raising & ADI not taking the chance of that happening & not offering to the public is BS.
> Wouldn't AWE have taken up any slack if there was a short fall?
> I think AUT is starting to look more attractive & slowly over time will change over.
> Cant believe you'd be happy with ADI's capital raising unless you were one of the sophisticated investors.




Not directed at you jancha so please don't take offence, but there seems a lot of unwarranted angst against the ADI capital raise ..... 

I wonder how many of the "un" sophistocated punters would have actually parted with their cash at 25 cps considering EKA was undersubscibed,  and the market in general looks a little toppy ..... 

ADI management have secured the cash required without having to go through unecessary uncertainty ....... maybe AWE would have taken up the slack as you say, but that is an assumption we can't be sure of considering the sugarkane is only a small portion of their interests

My opinion for what its worth .....   EKA up until today was the undervalued partner ..... AUT at its current sp has a lot of short term upside already factored in relative to the other partners imo, and considering the sp of ADI today, I think it is now entering the under valued zone ... 

Today looked like a few punters switching camps from ADI to either of the other JVP's ...... The market runs on sentiment, and when those "trading" AUT see the momentum start to drop, they will switch back or sell in an instant  ......  

Sour grapes directed at ADI management imo is nothing more than an admission of lack of forsight from any traders who have had ample opportunity to switch from one JVP to another if they wanted .... I was tempted to swap some ADI when AUT was 23 cents but I didn't ..... Am I happy about that?   No ! ...... am I winging about it?    Absolutely not !  ... It was my decision !!

ADI management have done a pretty responsible job from the outset imo ..... I have the current sp's of the JVP's as slightly out of balance in ADI's favour ... time will tell.  Cheers.


----------



## Hatchy

jancha said:


> ADI not taking the chance of that happening & not offering to the public is BS.
> Wouldn't AWE have taken up any slack if there was a short fall?
> .




They might have fallen short if they had gone public. You're no doubt aware that each day they're on thin volumes. You probably also know that this means that there's either little trading in the stock due to the average investors holding the stock long term or it's due to institutions having a good number of shares and choosing to hold on. 
Either way there's good reason to go to institutions to get the money. I've been in ADI for some time and have passed up raisings because i'd rather have other options with the money. You're probably the same with adi or others. 
Institutions can buy large amounts of new shares and it means that only a small number need to be approached. This is far less messy, happens quicker and I suspect costs a shade less than going through with a full SPP. 
ADI have got the money, they've set themselves up going forward and i'm happy with that. 

As far as AWE picking up the slack of any SPP - do you really think that ADI board wants to give AWE a greater share in the company (at a 15% discount) when they kicked ADI out of their offices? 
I think ADI is grateful that AWE has the cash to maintain their level of investment, but I doubt they're best buddies just yet. 

Barney - Agree fully.


----------



## sam76

The whole thing could have been sorted with everyone happy if management had offer a 1:20 (or whatever the correct ratio would be) to existing shareholders with the remainder being taken up by institutions.

Everyone wins.

* this option would obviously work better with time on side


----------



## mick z

jancha said:


> Dont mean to be abusing you Agentm but surely you dont believe that had ADI gone public they would have fallen short?
> Would you not have preferred the option of buying in at 25c as yourself being a long term holder?
> You seem to praise the management on the decisions they make but i dont see anything positive for the sp or in particular the confidence in long term holders as myself out of this.
> Who are they looking after by keeping this capital raising to just sophisticated holders?
> Who will company management be looking after in the future?





I'll give you the truth why they didn't come to its exiting holders

its because last time they came to us nobody supported adi....it was well under subscribe to, if it hadn't been for awe adi wouldn't have raise very much at all.
and its all because investors had no confidence in them with nothing happening for over twelve mths.

cheers


----------



## estseon

AUT SP is now 2.5 x ADI, which is looking quite toppy. You would have to assume that the average worth of their acreage is greater than the average worth of the S/L acreage to push that ratio much higher. That might well be, of course but another alternative is that we could see arbitrage traders switch from AUT to ADI.

Personally, I think that fundamentals are now near exhausted and the ADI CR is irrelevant. Besides which, AUT has signalled clearly that it will need to make a CR to develop Longhorn and Ipanema post Hilcorp's farm out drilling and it has had some dilution itself from option exercises.

I hold both shares.


----------



## jancha

mick z said:


> I'll give you the truth why they didn't come to its exiting holders
> 
> its because last time they came to us nobody supported adi....it was well under subscribe to, if it hadn't been for awe adi wouldn't have raise very much at all.
> and its all because investors had no confidence in them with nothing happening for over twelve mths.
> 
> cheers




How long ago was that?
There's a fair bit more confidence around with the success of results consistently flowing thru with ADI & surrounding companies.
Sam76 post is more along my way of thinking.
Whats stopping the large holders @ 25c off loading at 15% profit over next few months?
In turn that will keep the sp down imo.


----------



## condog

estseon said:


> AUT SP is now 2.5 x ADI, which is looking quite toppy. You would have to assume that the average worth of their acreage is greater than the average worth of the S/L acreage to push that ratio much higher. That might well be, of course but another alternative is that we could see arbitrage traders switch from AUT to ADI.
> 
> Personally, I think that fundamentals are now near exhausted and the ADI CR is irrelevant. Besides which, AUT has signalled clearly that it will need to make a CR to develop Longhorn and Ipanema post Hilcorp's farm out drilling and it has had some dilution itself from option exercises.
> 
> I hold both shares.




Esteon they have not said a CR. Definitely not. AUt have said they think they have enough capital with a debt facility and various options. Jon Stewart is well aware of the shareholders feelings with regard to cap raisings and he has just witnessed the backlash against his JVP's first hand. 

Theres ample capital to avoid a CR at present for the current program imo but DYOR. 

ADI holders i dont hold, but i share your frustration with timing and price. A 1:20 offer would have been much better. Got to question managments loyalties on that one.


----------



## Agentm

1968BELBAY said:


> adi seems to be full of bs to me how can aut and eka move up and adi move down not happy i will hold only cause im in to deep........




i am loving the sp movement, i hope it goes down heaps more.. i have a lot of orders waiting..

as far as i am concerned the more it shifts down the better and keep it coming.. 

adi was up on all the jvp members in a big way for months and there was non stop hankering by the usual suspects, management was lousy, adi this adi that..  lol.. but of course the eka and aut threads were not even having any critique given of their positions.. they are not doing anything bad what so ever..

cap raisings like what azz organised gave them significant support.. and imho adi territory is far superior to the azz region.. their 60 day results i posted have not indicated any spectacular at all

whos to say there is not a reason for cap raising, things like a forward well program or expansions? 

imho its done for a reason and i am looking forward to the next months ahead

bring on the sp fall.. i am ready for it..


----------



## mick z

seems agentm has no confidence in ADI if he is waiting for the sp to drop.

quote- bring on the sp fall.. i am ready for it..  

i think we should all sell now and wait for the drop. LOL


----------



## estseon

Not quite, Mick.

A person with lack of confidence is worried that it might fall. He doesn't want it to fall. A person with confidence may want it to fall so that he can pile in and make money on the inevitable rise.

But I take it that you were talking tongue in cheek.

The gap between AUT and ADI could close significantly if the arbitrage traders switch horses.

nursery reported a corker of a trade between EKA and ADI on HC. He reported turning 100k ADI into 145k ADI. Good for him. It wouldn't surprise me to hear of others doing the same using AUT bought before the recent rise.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> Not quite, Mick.
> 
> A person with lack of confidence is worried that it might fall. He doesn't want it to fall. A person with confidence may want it to fall so that he can pile in and make money on the inevitable rise.
> 
> But I take it that you were talking tongue in cheek.
> 
> The gap between AUT and ADI could close significantly if the arbitrage traders switch horses.
> 
> nursery reported a corker of a trade between EKA and ADI on HC. He reported turning 100k ADI into 145k ADI. Good for him. It wouldn't surprise me to hear of others doing the same using AUT bought before the recent rise.




i am loving the long term holders smashing the sentiment on adi

why not

i see an definite advantage

so i think the sellers should believe it all and sell away imho

do i  believe the oil in the eagleford has evaporated.. no

do i see many scenarios about to unfold in the ami and adjoining acreages.. yes

do i believe the sp will drop post the morgan flow results.. i absolutely dont, but most holders have such a negative outlook on the adi share i am certain they wouldnt want me to be placing my money on buy orders and getting ahead out of it, that would cut them to pieces if i made a killing off their negative sentiment.... and i have plenty in reserve if it does..

will the usual suspects maintain a negative stance on their investment day in day out regardless? yes

do i think the likes of hartleys have it understood better?  yep

so sell it down big time i say. i am loving the aut price shift and eka's atm

ADELPHI ENERGY LTD

What happened?

Adelphi Energy has reported sustained average 30 day flow rates from its
first two wells at its Sugarloaf project onshore USA. The Kennedy #1H well
has averaged 11.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day* (“mmcfe/d”)
and the Weston #1H well has recorded average 30 day production of
11.4mmcfe/d. These results have been achieved without the benefit of
installation of production tubing, which has been indicated in nearby wells to
result in a decrease in initial decline.

The Company has also reported that it now has three additional wells in the
process of being drilled or fracture stimulated.

ADI is free carried through the current work program.

What does it mean?

At these rates, we estimate that each well is making US$50k-US$65k in
revenue per day, with combined revenue from both wells grossing estimated
US$3-4m in the first 30 days. We calculate that the average gas /
condensate production per well is 3.75 million cubic feet of gas per day with
615 barrels of condensate per day (flow rates will decline significantly in the
first year). With well costs estimated at US$6-8m, payback should be
achieved within 5-8 months.

It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
of gas equivalent. We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps.

Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the
technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
wells being drilled in the play, *we view these wells as very low risk (90%
chance of success).*

Hartleys Initial View

We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.

*If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation**, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps.*

*mcfe is calculated using a 12:1 conversion ratio for gas / condensate and a 25% uplift in gas equivalent volume due to high calorific value of the produced gas


----------



## condog

Agent 

that effectively means they now value it at 90% of 1.88 is my take.

I do not hold, but reading the commentry thats what it means to me.

It makes sense for ADI & EKA to be substantially below AUT, but these prices, given the well results and impending results are comical to a non holder. imo its the effect of the CR being cleared out. time will tell, in a month. As you say its an opportunity.


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> Agent
> 
> that effectively means they now value it at 90% of 1.88 is my take.
> 
> I do not hold, but reading the commentry thats what it means to me.
> 
> It makes sense for ADI & EKA to be substantially below AUT, but these prices, given the well results and impending results are comical to a non holder. imo its the effect of the CR being cleared out. time will tell, in a month. As you say its an opportunity.




all the jvp members are brilliant value atm.. and i hope morgan will be 60% better than kennedy at a minimum, which will make it probably the best result in the eagleford thus far if i understand things correctly. and thats entirely imho and dyor

and i am investing accordingly into the partners as they move.. both up and down..

i think the reserve upgrade and the coming well results will not see adi get into the teens as many lth would want.. but i am not going to stand and protest their efforts, i am inclined to let it go and take full advantage..

loving their work atm and investing heavily into it..

bit peeved off their efforts has not diminished the sp more, there are 600,000 or more on the buy side between .25 and .28  best we can hope for is a massive sell off as they weave their magic, but i hope they can get it way below .25 in the next day or so, i think we will see them work hard on the threads for it..


----------



## lemontree

I also saw this as an opportunity to pile up more ADI, but unfortunately (or fortunately? ) for us the sp has recovered today. Now sitting at 32c per share. Agentm, you make a good point about all the positives ADI still has to offer in light of the CR, still a bright future ahead for share holders i believe. That is not to say, i am not upset about the recent CR and who they offered it to.


----------



## Kremmen

sam76 said:


> The whole thing could have been sorted with everyone happy if management had offer a 1:20 (or whatever the correct ratio would be) to existing shareholders with the remainder being taken up by institutions.
> 
> Everyone wins.




Quite right. I am currently holding both EKA and ADI. My ADI has been diluted, but EKA has not, as I subscribed to the 10c issue.

Those who are saying the EKA issue wasn't fully subscribed: What?!? No issue ever will be on a straight 1-for-X issue. There are always going to be some shareholders who don't have the money, don't want to invest further, or even just fail to see the paperwork and/or fail to get around to it. I've even missed offers because I was overseas when they happened. EKA's 70% looks like a pretty good achievement to me.

Don't get me wrong: The big issue is that the companies have value. This is a small issue, but it's one which will inevitably annoy loyal shareholders so, IMHO, it was a really stupid management decision.


----------



## nioka

Kremmen said:


> EKA's 70% looks like a pretty good achievement to me.
> .




EKA could have had a 100% take up by existing holders if they had allowed applications for excess to entitlements. I'd have asked for at least four times my entitlement. ADI could have made an issue on that basis also. It was discrimination of the smaller holders (as well as against nineteen of the top twenty) that allowed AWE to participate exclusively.


----------



## jancha

Kremmen said:


> Quite right. I am currently holding both EKA and ADI. My ADI has been diluted, but EKA has not, as I subscribed to the 10c issue.
> 
> Those who are saying the EKA issue wasn't fully subscribed: What?!? No issue ever will be on a straight 1-for-X issue. There are always going to be some shareholders who don't have the money, don't want to invest further, or even just fail to see the paperwork and/or fail to get around to it. I've even missed offers because I was overseas when they happened. EKA's 70% looks like a pretty good achievement to me.
> 
> Don't get me wrong: The big issue is that the companies have value. This is a small issue, but it's one which will inevitably annoy loyal shareholders so, IMHO, it was a really stupid management decision.




Hear Hear Kremmen. 
Agentm does a great job informing us on valuable imformation but trace back on comments that Agentm has posted in regard to ADI's CR & backing them on there decision leaves me to believe that Agentm is a bit bias as to ADI's management.
Not trying to abuse you Agentm but i cant see why you would back management on the CR decision.
 Anyone holding ADI shares wouldn't be impressed other than those who received 15% discount.
I think the sp price will hang around the 30c for awhile now as some of those holders will sell to make a quick profit while retaining there original shares.
 All good in the long run even tho i'm starting to prefer AUT better now and holding more of them.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Hear Hear Kremmen.
> Agentm does a great job informing us on valuable imformation but trace back on comments that Agentm has posted in regard to ADI's CR & backing them on there decision leaves me to believe that Agentm is a bit bias as to ADI's management.
> Not trying to abuse you Agentm but i cant see why you would back management on the CR decision.
> Anyone holding ADI shares wouldn't be impressed other than those who received 15% discount.
> I think the sp price will hang around the 30c for awhile now as some of those holders will sell to make a quick profit while retaining there original shares.
> All good in the long run even tho i'm starting to prefer AUT better now and holding more of them.




listen jancha, each post you make contains a quip at me

your agenda to make the cap raising directly an issue about me is ludicrous..

every post you make is not just about the cap raising but contains a personal remark about me in some way..

my view, if you had looked back on the issue, was that the cap raising , and indeed any cap raising is not popular, and i could see some rationale for getting institutional support in the case of adi's recent one.

your attacking me about bias and trying in every post to make a personal remark about me is just as offensive as your post about my comments being BS..

i am an adi shareholder and support the plans they have in place, hell why would you invest heavily into a share and be an permanent detractor?  and i support the efforts of the  adi and the jvp in all their endeavours to get the sugarkane from exploration to development..

again, jancha, just stick to the discussions on adi, dont have to tell the world what your thoughts are about me, whether i am bias, or a full of BS.. its not the topic, the thread is about adi.. 

and again keep your personal remarks about me out your posts..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> listen jancha, each post you make contains a quip at me
> 
> your agenda to make the cap raising directly an issue about me is ludicrous..
> 
> every post you make is not just about the cap raising but contains a personal remark about me in some way..
> 
> my view, if you had looked back on the issue, was that the cap raising , and indeed any cap raising is not popular, and i could see some rationale for getting institutional support in the case of adi's recent one.
> 
> your attacking me about bias and trying in every post to make a personal remark about me is just as offensive as your post about my comments being BS..
> 
> i am an adi shareholder and support the plans they have in place, hell why would you invest heavily into a share and be an permanent detractor?  and i support the efforts of the  adi and the jvp in all their endeavours to get the sugarkane from exploration to development..
> 
> again, jancha, just stick to the discussions on adi, dont have to tell the world what your thoughts are about me, whether i am bias, or a full of BS.. its not the topic, the thread is about adi..
> 
> and again keep your personal remarks about me out your posts..




Fair enough Agentm. 
You stated your oppinion on this thread about ADI & it's CR stating that it was good for new blood ect.
Didn't intend on ruffling your feathers just stating that i dont agree on your thoughts with ADI's CR.
I have supported ADI managements decisions in the past but not on the CR to selected few.
Thats all.
If it sounds personal & i'm attacking you in some way it wasn't meant to be more of a response to your comment on the CR as others respond & you yourself respond to others.
I will however omit comments as BS & bias in future as you have obviously been offended by it.


----------



## Agentm

jancha, being biased and full of BS, as you call me, is what you want to portray me as.. as far as i am concerned i wont go into a slanging match as to what i think you are.. 

its easy to just post a point of view, many do, and its obvious its not possible for you to just post a point of view, it requires you add more and to just call someone as biased or them to be full of BS. 

am i supposed to ignore your taunts jancha?  lol


but you never backed it up..

imho if your changing the topic and just want to call someone biased, prove it.. or if you intending on degrading someone and telling all they are full of BS.. prove it..

your intention to deflect the topic from adi to me is a complete success jancha..

love to post what i think of you jancha.. but all in all your not worth it..

enjoy the thread and thanks for your enlightening input jancha..

lets just say i cant agree with your opinions of me..

i am having trouble discussing adi atm. and believe it would be great to discuss adi and not your opinions of me jancha. maybe you need to change the subject matter jancha???

somehow i dont think you can discuss adi jancha, it seems your fixated with your insults on me atm..

lol


----------



## condog

With respect to all parties this is a brilliant thread. Lets drop it and move on, clearly both have expressed how you feel and your contributions to the ADI thread are very much appreciated.


----------



## Hatchy

Announcement out today. 
Marvelous flow rates. 
I am a little interested to see that easley's frac was fairly short. 

Anyone else notice that you can't just copy and paste out of the PDF's anymore?


----------



## prgudula

5 May 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
Further Success in Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field - Sugarloaf AMI Production Update
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following initial production results
from the recently stimulated Morgan #1H and Easley #1H wells located within the Sugarloaf
AMI in the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field.
Morgan #1H
Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section as
per the frac design, the Morgan #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 27 April
2010. The well production has now stabilized and the following Initial Production rate was
achieved:
· 5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or 31 mmscfe/d
Easley #1H
Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 2,750 ft of horizontal section as
per the frac design, the Easley #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 1 May
2010. The well production stabilized relatively quickly and the following Initial Production rate
was achieved:
· 6.81 mmscf/d Gas & 780 bcpd or 17.9 mmscfe/d
Whilst these initial rates are very encouraging, the following points should be noted:-
• These values are the maximum average rates achieved over consecutive 24 hour
flowing periods since the wells were brought on line.
• The gas equivalent rates have been calculated using a 12:1 conversion ratio and a
25% uplift in the gas rate based on the observed high calorific value of the gas
produced within the field to date.
• These are initial production rates observed during clean up and as such are not yet
indicative of a short or long term production profile.
• The wells still have considerable fluids to recover from the fracture stimulation
operations.
• The wells are currently producing through the production casing. A production tubing
string will be installed in due course in each well.
Adelphi Managing Director Chris Hodge commented:
“These latest flow rates are at the higher end of our expectations and continue to
demonstrate the highly productive liquids rich nature of the Eagle Ford shale in our area. We
now have four producing wells within the Sugarloaf AMI and have successfully appraised a
2
large proportion of our lease area. We look forward to the upcoming fracture stimulation of
the Rancho Grande well and to the continued production performance of our existing wells
before commencement of the Sugarloaf development phase.€


----------



## Agentm

pretty spectacular results imho

i think its way beyond anything i have seen anywhere in the eagleford..

blue sky right now

will be adding some heavily today


----------



## condog

Agentm said:


> pretty spectacular results imho
> 
> i think its way beyond anything i have seen anywhere in the eagleford..
> 
> blue sky right now
> 
> will be adding some heavily today




Absolutely staggering is my way to describe it. 

Makes Rancho and others look good.  Down day today could be a blessing for multiple reasons.


----------



## Speculator

condog said:


> Absolutely staggering is my way to describe it.
> 
> Makes Rancho and others look good.  Down day today could be a blessing for multiple reasons.




Beautiful result could not have hoped for better or a better day to have them released.

Makes me feel all warm and fusy inside.

Good Luck ALL!


----------



## barney

Morgan is a monster !:taz:
That one well will pay for the forward drilling of a new well every two months without having to dip into the bikkie barrel (after Hilcorp cover their initial costs of course) The future looks very positive for all the JVp's. The toppy market might help the late comers get in a reasonable prices ..... but I'm not sure there will be too many chances left ..... personally I hope the sp rises on the back of a falling market to cement a real base under the price.


----------



## Agentm

the sell off is brilliant

adi is getting smashed atm.. 

with that result and the way the stock market is today, its pure gold for me..

waiting for the low point today and its all about timing today

keep on selling is all i can say


----------



## Ramblin Round

Yes all, can't wait to pile up more of ADI here.

Hatchy, yes I've noticed too. Had to capture and save like this to share: Try control V then drop the screenshot on a Word document or equivalent. Go from there to increase size, etc.


----------



## mick z

Agentm said:


> the sell off is brilliant
> 
> adi is getting smashed atm..
> 
> with that result and the way the stock market is today, its pure gold for me..
> 
> waiting for the low point today and its all about timing today
> 
> keep on selling is all i can say





what sought of a post is this, one from the great supporters in ADI, a real let down to his fellow supporters
a little irresponsible i would say !


----------



## Sdajii

mick z said:


> what sought of a post is this, one from the great supporters in ADI, a real let down to his fellow supporters
> a little irresponsible i would say !




Hardly. He is showing his faith in the underlying strength of ADI and pointing out that the temporary drop in price (which only lasted a few minutes as it turns out) was due to reasons which don't relate to even the short-term outlook of the share price, so it represents an excellent but brief buy opportunity.

I bought as much as I could afford this morning and my only regret was that I didn't have more funds on hand. I also topped up on EKA at open of trade... Agentm indicated he would also be topping up today, which presumably he now has, unless he is waiting for close of trade.


----------



## Agentm

imho its so irresponsible that i would hope all these alleged adi supporters, and you of course are not one, will sell irresponsibly to me at way lower prices than currently

fingers crossed

what is sought?


----------



## Agentm

Sdajii said:


> Hardly. He is showing his faith in the underlying strength of ADI and pointing out that the temporary drop in price (which only lasted a few minutes as it turns out) was due to reasons which don't relate to even the short-term outlook of the share price, so it represents an excellent but brief buy opportunity.
> 
> I bought as much as I could afford this morning and my only regret was that I didn't have more funds on hand. I also topped up on EKA at open of trade... Agentm indicated he would also be topping up today, which presumably he now has, unless he is waiting for close of trade.




sdajii

not you also?? thats two of us that are irresponsible and letting down the team

smarten up mate


if it goes down i am ploughing in,   if it rises then so be it, thats where i think the sp should go in any case


----------



## Sdajii

Agentm said:


> sdajii
> 
> not you also?? thats two of us that are irresponsible and letting down the team
> 
> smarten up mate
> 
> 
> if it goes down i am ploughing in,   if it rises then so be it, thats where i think the sp should go in any case




I think some people struggle to grasp sarcasm 

Gee, I hope everyone sells all their ADI because it's clearly total garbage and they should get out now so I can watch it fall in price and not buy any more... yeah...

Oh, wait, I'm already maxed out until I can raise some more disposable funds.... never mind.

What price did you get in at, Agentm? My order stuffed up for open, but managed to get in at 31c (bringing my average to about 24 I think). I got EKA for 0.15c.


----------



## Agentm

Sdajii said:


> I think some people struggle to grasp sarcasm
> 
> Gee, I hope everyone sells all their ADI because it's clearly total garbage and they should get out now so I can watch it fall in price and not buy any more... yeah...
> 
> Oh, wait, I'm already maxed out until I can raise some more disposable funds.... never mind.
> 
> What price did you get in at, Agentm? My order stuffed up for open, but managed to get in at 31c (bringing my average to about 24 I think). I got EKA for 0.15c.




you seem to have purchased some irresponsibly low prices today sdajii

well done.. unfortunately i am in the dog box for buying when the sp went down..

nice move on eka,  been eyeing them of for days, but didnt buy any, but seriously think they are undervalued,, well done again

aut and adi is where i have been chomping away at for days, with all the detractors weaving their magic and supporting my irresponsible buying that is..


----------



## Sdajii

Agentm said:


> you seem to have purchased some irresponsibly low prices today sdajii
> 
> well done.. unfortunately i am in the dog box for buying when the sp went down..
> 
> nice move on eka,  been eyeing them of for days, but didnt buy any, but seriously think they are undervalued,, well done again
> 
> aut and adi is where i have been chomping away at for days, with all the detractors weaving their magic and supporting my irresponsible buying that is..




Haha!

My nicer move on EKA was picking some up last week for an average of 10.7c

My watch list looks so pretty with the few dots of green against an ocean of red... the green in the right places!


----------



## Tordilla Kid

It's good to hear good news about ADI.

I drop in now and again as a local with local info.  No holding in ADI for me as I've kids to put though college yet.  Plus, I'm fortunate enough to have inherited some royalty interest in the Eagle Ford.  

I've been following the ADI thread for quite a while.  All the recent criticism of AgentM is disheartening to me.  Everybody will make money in the oily/wet Eagle Ford in the next year or two, fer sure--probably sooner.  

In South Texas we say that good poker players have "huevos grandes." More politely described as "ganas."  AgentM has demonstrated a passion for this play for years now, and I appreciate all the info he's sent our way.  

OK then. there are two rigs near Fashing--drove by today.  One is Pioneer 16.  The other not marked.  Neither appear fully operational, but interesting nonetheless.  This is just west of ADI leases.  XTO Emma Hart just around the corner.  IDK.

There are two rigs on the EOG Orr wells.  Dan Hughes has two rigs operating between Falls City and EOG Orr.  Two significant production facilities, and an 8" or so pipeline, near Lyssy/Orr wells.  

It was warm today in South Texas, but not as hot as the Eagle Ford.

TK


----------



## Agentm

Tordilla Kid said:


> It's good to hear good news about ADI.
> 
> I drop in now and again as a local with local info.  No holding in ADI for me as I've kids to put though college yet.  Plus, I'm fortunate enough to have inherited some royalty interest in the Eagle Ford.
> 
> I've been following the ADI thread for quite a while.  All the recent criticism of AgentM is disheartening to me.  Everybody will make money in the oily/wet Eagle Ford in the next year or two, fer sure--probably sooner.
> 
> In South Texas we say that good poker players have "huevos grandes." More politely described as "ganas."  AgentM has demonstrated a passion for this play for years now, and I appreciate all the info he's sent our way.
> 
> OK then. there are two rigs near Fashing--drove by today.  One is Pioneer 16.  The other not marked.  Neither appear fully operational, but interesting nonetheless.  This is just west of ADI leases.  XTO Emma Hart just around the corner.  IDK.
> 
> There are two rigs on the EOG Orr wells.  Dan Hughes has two rigs operating between Falls City and EOG Orr.  Two significant production facilities, and an 8" or so pipeline, near Lyssy/Orr wells.
> 
> It was warm today in South Texas, but not as hot as the Eagle Ford.
> 
> TK




hey tordilla

agree the  eagleford is hot, 

it sure upsets the investors big time for some reason 

i have been aware of that site near fashing, imho its a hilcorp site according to the kind folk in karnes that tell me so.

i do think the people in karnes are way nicer than the shareholders in adi, thats for sure.. and i backed adi from the start, bought high and bought up big when it was low in the gfc.. about .06 at the time.. and have been buying a lot more of late. its not as though the shareholders have not been aware of the upside on this one for a long long time..

i appreciate your input, and i can see on my database the dan hughes/eog wells are drilling away there a few miles north of our wells

i hear the eskew north well of conocophillips was a nice one, its next to the kunde wells just west of our wells,  and there is another well out there that they reported on a few weeks back that also was a good little producer..

all the best and enjoy the good texas weather..


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Also a rig today on a Hawthorn vertical between Lyssy/Orr and and ADI Turnbull-rig not marked at the road.  It's Orr 255-31660.  Again, just the rig, not all the rest.  Will check back on all next weekend.


----------



## condog

Thanks Tordilla. Agent get your chopper and get some shots hey.

Tordilla / agent do you reckon they may be for Turnbull 3.

By the way , i also take huge offence to unfounded accusations against agent and express my distaste at such frivilous comments.


Ta. Tordilla. Ta. Agent in advance for info at least 48 hours prior to ASX release.

Keep it up agent and ignore the rubbish.


----------



## jancha

condog said:


> Thanks Tordilla. Agent get your chopper and get some shots hey.
> 
> Tordilla / agent do you reckon they may be for Turnbull 3.
> 
> By the way , i also take huge offence to unfounded accusations against agent and express my distaste at such frivilous comments.
> 
> 
> Ta. Tordilla. Ta. Agent in advance for info at least 48 hours prior to ASX release.
> 
> Keep it up agent and ignore the rubbish.




Condog in your earlier post you said " Lets drop it & move on"
I take an offence also to not being able to express an opinion without sensitive individuals twisting it around.
Maybe i should have asked how many long term holders of ADI were happy about not being part of the 25c capital raising instead of involving a certain party who in the past i have praise also & not critisized other than his thoughts on the last CR.
That is in the past now so as you said "just drop it"  enjoy the thread & keep up the good work.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Here's today's Adelphi report update on Sugarloaf. Looks like they are producing as scheduled with good flow rates to boot. This news is pleasing to us.

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX Release 5 May 2010 - Sugarloaf Production Update.pdf


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Condog in your earlier post you said " Lets drop it & move on"
> I take an offence also to not being able to express an opinion without sensitive individuals twisting it around.
> Maybe i should have asked how many long term holders of ADI were happy about not being part of the 25c capital raising instead of involving a certain party who in the past i have praise also & not critisized other than his thoughts on the last CR.
> That is in the past now so as you said "just drop it"  enjoy the thread & keep up the good work.




jancha, as your still at it, i have to explain something to you again..

"I take an offence also to not being able to express an opinion without sensitive individuals twisting it around."

jancha you have every right to express your opinion on adi, i have no issue with them at all, what is clear to me is that when you call me a biased b&llsh^tter then your expecting me to say nothing..

as i said b4. just stick to subject and dont be offensive and you wont get the reaction that your continuing to provoke..

talk about you twisting things around.. i raised your first offensive statement with you and you came right back with a second..

now you saying i have an issue with your posts content on adi itself..  and are "not being able to express an opinion".. 

when did that happen??

just stick to adi and talk away.. and the moment you start doing so this thread will probably come back into some sort of order, its easy... try it..

in the meanwhile continue on with your ambition to distract the thread from adi..  fire away..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> jancha, as your still at it, i have to explain something to you again..
> 
> "I take an offence also to not being able to express an opinion without sensitive individuals twisting it around."
> 
> jancha you have every right to express your opinion on adi, i have no issue with them at all, what is clear to me is that when you call me a biased b&llsh^tter then your expecting me to say nothing..
> 
> as i said b4. just stick to subject and dont be offensive and you wont get the reaction that your continuing to provoke..
> 
> talk about you twisting things around.. i raised your first offensive statement with you and you came right back with a second..
> 
> now you saying i have an issue with your posts content on adi itself..  and are "not being able to express an opinion"..
> 
> when did that happen??
> 
> just stick to adi and talk away.. and the moment you start doing so this thread will probably come back into some sort of order, its easy... try it..
> 
> in the meanwhile continue on with your ambition to distract the thread from adi..  fire away..




Agentm why don't you drop it yourself.
I didn't realize your name was Condog so why respond?
I am only interested in ADI & their interests in this thread.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm why don't you drop it yourself.
> I didn't realize your name was Condog so why respond?
> I am only interested in ADI & their interests in this thread.




jancha, its becoming monotonous..

as you are aware, its entirely up to you to drop your current tactic of discussion, which is what you personally perceive me, to the subject of ADI, when you start doing so it will change the course of discussion and the thread will return to normal..

if you raise issues about me personally, and make claims that your not entitled to have an opinion on adi, then i simply corrected you, its simply not the case, i would welcome your input myself and encourage you to do so..

i am merely pointing out how incorrect you are when you make claims that i am not allowing you in some way to have an opinion on adi, that as i said i welcome, the personal remarks on me and about me that you make i will simply keep on replying to.

you can actually post whatever you like on this thread, be it entirely up to you to decide if you post on the subject of adi or indeed just keep on making statements about me as you did with your last post to condog..

my preference would be that you posted  on the topic, but as  before, be my guest and keep this distraction going..

either way its entirely up to you when it ceases


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> jancha, its becoming monotonous..
> 
> as you are aware, its entirely up to you to drop your current tactic of discussion, which is what you personally perceive me, to the subject of ADI, when you start doing so it will change the course of discussion and the thread will return to normal..
> 
> if you raise issues about me personally, and make claims that your not entitled to have an opinion on adi, then i simply corrected you, its simply not the case, i would welcome your input myself and encourage you to do so..
> 
> i am merely pointing out how incorrect you are when you make claims that i am not allowing you in some way to have an opinion on adi, that as i said i welcome, the personal remarks on me and about me that you make i will simply keep on replying to.
> 
> you can actually post whatever you like on this thread, be it entirely up to you to decide if you post on the subject of adi or indeed just keep on making statements about me as you did with your last post to condog..
> 
> my preference would be that you posted  on the topic, but as  before, be my guest and keep this distraction going..
> 
> either way its entirely up to you when it ceases




Agentm you seem to be doing a good job of keeping up the distraction on yourself. 
May i suggest you use private message box if you want to keep going on about nothing.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm you seem to be doing a good job of keeping up the distraction on yourself.
> May i suggest you use private message box if you want to keep going on about nothing.




jancha, you are very persistent i must admit..

the way i view it right now is that you have an option, you can post on this thread about adi and you can continue to post on the thread and keep it totally off topic..

please use the thread to discuss adi and i think you will find things can get back to normal. i think everyone would welcome your input, so please, as before, be my guest and use this thread to discuss adi..

cheers


----------



## basilio

Folks, this thread offers some of the most detailed analysis of one of the very few shares that is still showing some life . At least part of this "greenness" is because fellow forum members appreciate the insights on Agentum et al

Is it possible to leave the oneupmanship  in private mail and continue the focus on ADI? Watching fellow members attempting to have the last word in a word play fight feels unpleasant and I suggest unnecessarily distracts from the topic. And it is probably not in the spirit of this forum.

I for one would really appreciate it 

Cheers


----------



## rock86

enough with the back and forward, these little digs at each other aren't doing this thread any favours. Let's keep it purely to ADI


----------



## Hatchy

Can anyone with technical knowledge explain why you don't frac the whole length of the lateral ? - there seems to be several hundred feet left that doesn't get fracced. 

I did post a query a few days ago that I thought Easley was a bit short on the frac. My mistake - it was only a 3000ft lateral - shame about that, seems like the longer laterals get the better result. 

If Morgan is anything to go by, (we should really be waiting to see what the stabilised results come back as) then Rancho should be a stunner also. 

It's got to be the BCPD that turns these wells into big spinners - feel sorry for the other acreages with just dry gas! 

Now I reckon the Kow needs to be worked out. Can anyone comment as to whether this well needs to be fixed before Hillcorp finalises their interest? I'll email ADI today and ask.


----------



## Hatchy

I've always been interested in Yemen.

I know it's the poor cousin to the Eagleford / Austin play, but I've just had this gut feeling that it could be a decent play. 

I've attempted to attach a file that I found whilst searching around. It's from a company that brokers the deals to sell shares in acreages. Quite interesting reading for anyone else interested in Yemen. 
View attachment P174Adelphi(Yemen)IntroFlyer.pdf


----------



## Agentm

Hatchy said:


> Can anyone with technical knowledge explain why you don't frac the whole length of the lateral ? - there seems to be several hundred feet left that doesn't get fracced.
> 
> I did post a query a few days ago that I thought Easley was a bit short on the frac. My mistake - it was only a 3000ft lateral - shame about that, seems like the longer laterals get the better result.
> 
> If Morgan is anything to go by, (we should really be waiting to see what the stabilised results come back as) then Rancho should be a stunner also.
> 
> It's got to be the BCPD that turns these wells into big spinners - feel sorry for the other acreages with just dry gas!
> 
> Now I reckon the Kow needs to be worked out. Can anyone comment as to whether this well needs to be fixed before Hillcorp finalises their interest? I'll email ADI today and ask.




the rates on morgan and easley are not initial ips, the way i understand it, but as they announced, a more stabalissed flow report after a few days production..

Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section as per the frac design, the Morgan #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 27 April 2010. *The well production has now stabilized and the following Initial Production rate was achieved*:
*· 5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or 31 mmscfe/d*


also.. the way i understand it hatchy, the wells are wirelined pretty extensively.. so any fractures indicated in the wireline would possibly be bypassed as they could potentially induce connectivity to other formations zones or create a screenout perhaps??  anyway thats how i understand it.. sections deemed not too favourable would possibly be missed in the frac process and the actual fractured length of the completion would be smaller thn the completion..

hope it helps


----------



## Hatchy

Agentm said:


> the rates on morgan and easley are not initial ips, the way i understand it, but as they announced, a more stabalissed flow report after a few days production..
> 
> also.. the way i understand it hatchy, the wells are wirelined pretty extensively.. so any fractures indicated in the wireline would possibly be bypassed as they could potentially induce connectivity to other formations zones or create a screenout perhaps??  anyway thats how i understand it.. sections deemed not too favourable would possibly be missed in the frac process and the actual fractured length of the completion would be smaller thn the completion..
> 
> hope it helps




Ah! Thanks Agent - I think I have a better grasp on the process now.

I got an email back from ADI about the Kow - it's all still under consideration and as such they can't give an answer, but they hope to have it sorted out soon.


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## Agie82

Can anyone give detailed instructions on where to find initial production rates and follow up production rates on oil wells and how to get them at that site. Thanks.  Also see Hilcorp has 3 permitted sites on Barnhart Ranch at Pilgrim Lake.  EOG is up to around 14 permitted and drilled wells at Cheapside.  Gonzales County is still buzzing.


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## rock86

well well what a day, I'd like to thank Greece and the likes for sending markets into termoil...again

After a great announcment on awesome flow results from two wells yesterday we find the SP in the 20's...again

Some of you might say, aw it's a great time to accumulate. But this is just getting utterly rediculous. This play has now been proved how good it is and de-risked (completely for me) yet we see these rockbottom prices

Royally annoyed


----------



## Hatchy

rock86 said:


> well well what a day, I'd like to thank Greece and the likes for sending markets into termoil...again
> 
> After a great announcment on awesome flow results from two wells yesterday we find the SP in the 20's...again
> 
> Some of you might say, aw it's a great time to accumulate. But this is just getting utterly rediculous. This play has now been proved how good it is and de-risked (completely for me) yet we see these rockbottom prices
> 
> Royally annoyed




Yes it is a great time to accumulate, but that doesn't help those who've got no more cash to feed the monster. 

What I can say is that patience is what helps. There's no use in tracking a share like this 10 times throughout the day.

ADI has shown itself IMO to be an investors stock, not a traders stock. 

It's too easy to get carried away in the fact that this stock should be sitting pretty, it's missed the surge that carried AZZ and AUT upwards etc etc. 

The fundamentals remain and that's what's so pleasing to remember. 

Despite and possibly because of all this global turmoil the oil price has stayed up above $80 and the eagleford is producing! 

As I heard recently at the start of a comedy show:
Now... Take a big breath in... good now everyone lower their expectations. 

Don't fall prey to Prediction Addiction!


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## AngusSmart

Is Adi doing any more cap raising or is this all done for now??

i've not been following adi all that much. was more interested in aut..


----------



## Hatchy

AngusSmart said:


> Is Adi doing any more cap raising or is this all done for now??
> 
> i've not been following adi all that much. was more interested in aut..




Hello Angus,
Well ADI should be all done for now, with about 9 Mil in the bank that'll last at least through the winter, then plus some more. It really does all depend on the future funding requirements of both Yemen and Texas. If things aren't developed too quickly, profits from the current 6 wells will contribute nicely to the bank balance without it getting too eaten away. 

Nice to see you're back taking some interest in ADI - It's not necessarily the poorer cousin to AUT. Not at all!


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## estseon

"I got an email back from ADI about the Kow - it's all still under consideration and as such they can't give an answer, but they hope to have it sorted out soon"

Thanks, Hatchy. The JVPs seemed to be still counting it but its still reassuring to hear.

You're just jumping the gun a little bit with Rancho. I'm sure that it will be good but it'll be nice to hear what it flows.

In view of the reduced payout times, ADI might have enough now to bridge cash requirements for further development of the S/L. That's assuming that Hilcorp do a ramp up not a pole vault. With 6 existing wells flowing and cash for another [8], the cash flow might well finance the future development from now.


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## condog

Esteon i hope they will drll a side track form where the broken garbage sits., id hate to see them wasitng capital fishing for too long or starting over.


----------



## Ramblin Round

My understanding of multi-stage fracs and why they aren't all done at once is twofold. I am probably wrong altogether but here's how I understand it:

One, they will actually flow too much and risk blowout. Two, it makes for a manageable producing well. Frac 4 stages of a 14 stage frac and produce X amount per day/month/year. When those flow rates are no longer favorable you can frac however many stages a decade later with re-entry to get back up to good flow. It's as if you can actually predict how long the wells can last on an Eagle Ford and manipulate it successfully a decade later.

Speaking of a decade later, someone is suppsoedly building a water pipeline through DeWitt to get the water down to may of those Karnes County wells to get ready to frac. Not sure where the water is coming from yet, but this leads me to beleive this isn't a 2-5 year project. This is at least a decade of research in the works here with another decade for the play.


----------



## WRONG'UN

Hi Ramblin - I hope you are not "probably wrong altogether", because it sounds like a great idea! The mind boggles at the thought of ten years production at rates that are comparable with the first year's, if this is what is achievable.


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## Agentm

Pioneer Natural Resources Continues Successful Eagle Ford Shale Drilling Program

Pioneer Natural Resources Continues Successful Eagle Ford Shale Drilling Program
DALLAS—-Pioneer Natural Resources Company today announced its fifth successful well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Chesnutt Gas Unit #1 well, which is located in Karnes County, Texas, tested at an initial production rate of 15.6 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day on a 24/64 inch choke with approximately 5,600 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure.

this well is pretty close to adi acreages


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## adobee

With some pain due in about 22 minutes what is the strategies for the ADI support team.. hold and buy ... sell and wait .. ? Even with all the oil in the world if we start round 2 of the GFC is anyone going to care ?


----------



## Agentm

adobee

if oil goes to $30 and below again then the play wont be economic, i imagine it would hibernate for a long period again, like in the last gfc and as much as any other small cap explorer in any of the resource sectors facing the price crash of their resource.  

but the difference this time is that the jvp would have 5 - 6 completions fully completed and producing free carried in the AMI and a further number of wells for AUT in the extended acreages, thus far 2 are in completion.. so in the jvp favor would be revenues from the wells and the resource value of the reserves and acreage values, that may not see the jvp go to cash value as before, but this time they may stay at far higher values..  imho these valuations are expected to come through in the very near term after the completion of the free carried well program

if oil does not crash and burn, then the eagleford will be critical to texas and very economic, so full steam ahead for the jvp. if they have the cash to keep up with the forward plan i guess. if you dont have the cash and cant keep up then you can simply opt out of the wells that you wish to..

forward planning is what the jvp would be considering right now, but being mindful of the critical price of oil..

thats how i view the risks of a gfc 2 as you put it imho

as an investor i care a lot about the price, but i will take advantage of any good value shares that i can pick up should that occur..


----------



## 5haretrader

It is getting ridiculous ey adobee. The market depth might tell differently but my instinct is to keep the faith and top up wherever possible.


----------



## AngusSmart

well i got my buy in this morning, and ouch!!

i changed by buy 5c below what i had planned yesterday and still got in


----------



## 5haretrader

Well played Angus, there are some great buys out there today, if only I had the cash to top up


----------



## Agentm

5haretrader said:


> It is getting ridiculous ey adobee. The market depth might tell differently but my instinct is to keep the faith and top up wherever possible.




Electronic Trading to Blame for Plunge, NYSE Says

lol

nice way to have a market rout.. maybe its not such a big rout after all


----------



## Sdajii

5haretrader said:


> Well played Angus, there are some great buys out there today, if only I had the cash to top up




I hear you there! On Wednesday I put in everything I could spare. No regrets, but today is an even better opportunity and all I can do is watch!


----------



## AngusSmart

I need to find the money now..

i have a spare kidney for sale! and maybe a lung!

looks like i just cracked in at the lowest point too. i was surprised to see someone selling at it.


----------



## WRONG'UN

Does anyone have any idea how the proposed 40% "super tax" will/won't affect Aust companies that have their activities offshore? Mr Rudd claims Aust resources are owned by "the Australian people", who are therefore entitled to a (big) slice of the cake. The Australian people do not own the Eagle Ford shale, nor any possible resources in Yemen.
As they say, the devil is in the detail.


----------



## condog

It only applies to resources in Australia. Its not on oil and gas anyway, they have had theres in place for years.

It wont get through the senate anyway, so i wouldnt worry about it too much. If they drastically reduce it the coalition might back it, but not at that rate.


----------



## Hatchy

condog said:


> It only applies to resources in Australia. Its not on oil and gas anyway, they have had theres in place for years.




Hi Condog,
I thought it was for all resources? 
I do agree that it only applies to things that are literally taken out of aussie soil, but I was under the impression that flowed through to oil and gas - well at least CSG.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Here's a great article found on the internet regarding production plans and goals for shale plays all the way through year 2030 and beyond. It was published in 2007 and seems right on track to what we are doing around here.


http://www.npc.org/Study_Topic_Papers/29-TTG-Unconventional-Gas.pdf


----------



## McCoy Pauley

Hatchy said:


> Hi Condog,
> I thought it was for all resources?
> I do agree that it only applies to things that are literally taken out of aussie soil, but I was under the impression that flowed through to oil and gas - well at least CSG.




I think the proposed tax would apply to CSG (that's the impression I've had from Origin Energy and Arrow Energy) but "traditional" forms of oil and gas production would not be covered by the proposed tax because they already have their own rent tax levied.


----------



## Agentm

how can the royalty apply to a resource not in the territory of australia?

i think you may be confusing what the proposed tax law applies to imho..

anyone want to post up where this new rudd tax is taxing in ground resources world wide please?


----------



## condog

Its absolutely definitely only applies to resources mined in Australia. And i still think it wont get through in anything like its current form. The coalition will block it in the senate, they are 100% definite on the record going to block it.

But an ammended version might get through, it would still only apply to operations on Australian soil, not Aussies mining over seas.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

Coalition doesn't have the numbers in the Senate to block anything by itself.  If the Govt persuades the Greens and the independents to support the legislation, it would be passed.  Greens are all for it, so it will depend on Xenophon and Fielding.


----------



## estseon

As long as the US does not follow suit, the new law shouldn't be a concern for us. The new tax might deter excessive exploitation of Aus mineral reserves. The giant miners might be forced to reconsider their plans.


----------



## Agentm

this study done recently is posted with the permission of the author

its covering a lot of issues that ADI and AUT have been presenting on the sugarkane. thats the eagleford and chalks combined..

this study has no knowledge of the region we are in, they have no idea that conocophillips has been flowing chalks wells in the play, and recently have opened up eagleford wells throughout dewitt karnes and live oak counties, nor are they aware of the Hilcorp/TCEI/aussieJVP region. the AMI longhorn and ipanema and of course the excelsior play hilcorp/tcei are in

the reason for them missing it imho is that they dont identify the sugarkane Cretaceous play thats been passed by RRC as an eagleford/chalks target

but in light of all the short laterals like kennedy and weston really equalling and surpassing the best the petrohawk wells have performed at, and now the 4400 foot lateral of morgan really mirroring the best of the best.. 

all good news for adi holders


----------



## Agentm

i am including these further slides as the forum limits the number to 10..

the entire presentation i think really makes the jvp acreages look outstanding









































]


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## Agentm

last 2 slides they presented are copies of ones i have posted before but still express the inportance of what petrohawk and eog are saying about the wetgas and oil aspect of the play


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## WRONG'UN

Thanks, Agent - that's going to take a bit of digesting!

I've just posted some analysis on the AUT thread, based on ADI's latest presentation.

Applying the same rationale to ADI, I get an after (30%) tax valuation of
($US1.2m x 0.7 / 0.89) x 235 /147 = $A1.51

There is, of course, Yemen.

For EKA, the valuation is ( $US1.2m x 1.25 x 0.7 / 0.89 ) x 235 / 154 = $A1.60

DYOR


----------



## WRONG'UN

Make that $A0.80 for EKA - I forgot to allow for the farm-out.
...........................................


----------



## Agentm

nioka

i recall you wanting some more independent broker reports.. this appeared on another thread but interestingly mentions the need for AUT to raise capital and praised the jvp management for excellence in reporting as well as really praising hilcorp.  all of which a i agree with,, 

i swapped out of aut and backed it all back into adi.. which are at excellent prices.. as i think short term, AUT will have that cap raising hurdle to overcome and i think the prices i got were excellent

i gather aut will also introduce a further broker report in the next few days..

this is a cleaned up version of that report as appeared on another thread.


The Sugarloaf trio, Adelphi Energy, Eureka Energy and Aurora Oil & Gas reported initial flush production of 5.15 mmcf of gas and 2,046 barrels of condensate from their Morgan #1 well and 6.81 mmcf of gas and 780 barrels of condensate from the Easley #1 well. 

The trio acknowledged that these initial production rates were not indicative of a short or long term production profile. But they claimed the rates compared very favourably to results achieved by other participants in the wider Eagle Ford Shale play.

The current four Sugarloaf wells could return $13,000,000 gross a year to ADI and AUTs 10% equity interest. So far we have the following daily production profile for the Hilcorp farm in wells: 
Well Gas Condensate mmscfep/d 
Weston # 1H * 5.70 mmscf 378 bocpd 9.1 mmscfe 
Kennedy #1H * 2.47 mmscf 540 bocpd 9.6 mmscfe 
Easley #1H ** 6.81 mmscf 780 bocpd 31.0 mmscfe 
Morgan #1H ** 5.15 mmscf 2,046 bocpd 17.9 mmscfe 
Total 20.13 mmscf 3,744 bocpd 67.6 mmscfe # 

* 60 day average. Recompleted previously drilled wells. 
** Initial production. New wells. 
H stands for horizontal. 
# Converted at 12:1 that is 1 bo equals 12,000 cubic feet of gas (12 mcf). 

Adelphi Energy and Aurora Oil & Gas each have a 10% interest in the Sugarloaf project after Hilcorp‟s farm in. Eureka Energy has 6.25%. 

So ADI and AUT have net daily production on the above numbers of 6.76 mmscfe/day. Or 2 mmcfs/d and 374 barrels of condensate per day. One mmcf of gas at US$4.00 per mcf is worth a gross US$4,000 a day or US$120,000 a month or US$1,460,000 a year. One hundred barrels of condensate at say US$75 a barrel is worth US$7,500 a day or US$225,000 a month or US$2,700,000 a year. 

*So provided flow rates don‟t change and oil and gas prices remain the same, ADI and AUT could be looking at some US$13,000,000 a year in gross sales revenue from the first four wells alone.* But flow rates will decline. That‟s inevitable. How fast only time will tell. It is not unusual to see up to a 30% decline in the first year. That decline could be offset by higher prices. 

The break even gas price for the project looks to be around US$2.73 an mcf, reportedly the lowest of all US shale plays. And of course by drilling more wells. The JV expects to have one more recompleted well, Kowalik #1H, and one new well, Rancho Grande #1H, in production by the end of June. 

In Adelphis recent investor presentation it claims up to 200 potential new well locations on the 23,500 acre lease that is the Sugarloaf AMI. With full scale, multi rig development to commence in 2011 when the JV partners will pay for development wells at their respective equity interest level. The Sugarloaf project‟s economics look very strong. *The numbers stand up to close scrutiny. The professionalism and experience of Hilcorp has made all the difference to a project we once derided. All three companies involved are competently managed and factual and transparent in their presentations*. 

There is little of the hyperbole that accompanies so many of the junior Aussie oilers operating in the US. So the share price of the JV partners have not been inflated with b/s.

Which stock to support is a question. 

Adelphi, Aurora or Eureka with its slightly smaller equity interest. 

Aurora has an interest (50%) in the Longhorn and Ipanema projects in the same Sugarkane field. These are AMIs not shared by Adelphi or Eureka. And Hilcorp is now drilling the first two of three farm in wells on Longhorn (Turnbull #1 and Turnbull #2) with one farm in well to come on Ipanema. So the Longhorn and Ipanema acreage that only Aurora has the interest in provides Aurora with three times the net acreage interest that it, ADI and EKA have in Sugarloaf. Paterson Securities recently put a research paper on Aurora with a target price of $0.92

*(this line next look like a real typo,, where they say adelphi imho instead of AUT... but he is correct in his calculations that AUT need capital )*

But bear in mind that Adelphi like Adelphi and Eureka before it, will likely need to raise more capital to meet their drilling commitments if, as seems anticipated, Hilcorp will go hell for leather in developing the three AMIs. We don‟t know what a well costs but assume it is around US$5 million so payback is reasonably quick at less than six months. In short it probably doesn‟t matter which of the three stocks one chooses. 

Adelphi which is currently raising money at $0.25 and Eureka Energy are our current preferences given the leverage of their lower share prices when compared to Aurora. 

This past week ADI dropped from $0.295 to $0.275, AUT from $0.65 to $0.61 and EKA from $0.14 to $0.13. The drivers for these stocks will be the news flow as Hilcorp gets on with the drilling and completes and places more wells on production. The third well Rancho Grande was due to be fracced and completed this month. And for Aurora only, results from the Turnbull wells can‟t be too far away. The possible downside is a dramatic fall in gas prices though we don‟t see them falling much further as the US economy rebounds. It is always possible decline rates will exceed expectations, though the JV doesn‟t think that will happen based on analogue fields. And for ADI and EKA the drilling priorities of Hilcorp could become an issue if Longhorn and Ipanema prove even better fields than Sugarloaf.


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> i swapped out of aut and backed it all back into adi.. which are at excellent prices.. as i think short term, AUT will have that cap raising hurdle to overcome and i think the prices i got were excellent
> 
> i gather aut will also introduce a further broker report in the next few days..
> .




I bought both ADI and EKA with the intention of an AUT swap. I decided to hang onto the AUT that I intended to sell into the swap for a few more days while the brokers update their reports. I also like to buy Fridays, sell  early the next week. I wont have to sell as many AUT to finance the purchases by the way the market is trading so far this week. I may also just sell some of the purchased ADI and/or EKA and retain the freebies. These three just keep on with trading opportunities.


----------



## estseon

"i swapped out of aut and backed it all back into adi.. which are at excellent prices.. as i think short term, AUT will have that cap raising hurdle to overcome and i think the prices i got were excellent"

There was impressive volume and price stability in AUT trading today (last night for me). That suggests two-way trading and it suggests no particular dislocation between the ADI & AUT prices.

IMO, it will be the drilling programme for H2 2010 that will be most important and with ADI & EME raising capital for additional activity, whilst AUT still saying that its own cap raising is likely in 2011, there is a strong suggestion that the rigs might return to S/L for the rest of the year. If Hilcorp maintain their awesome rate of drilling and completion, that could mean that S/L could have 15+ producing wells before the end of 2010. That will be good for all of the JVPs but ADI & EKA have the greater gearing and the prospect of future development of S/L being self-funding should take an awful lot of risk out of the equation.

AUT will have the results of the 3 Turnbulls and Ipanema. It is disappointing that the 3 Longhorn wells will be so closely grouped because it will still leave a degree of speculation concerning the productivity of the rest of the Longhorn acreage whose boundaries have yet to be defined. The prospective cap raising will be a damper on the price but AUT cannot really plan anything until it knows the degree of ramp-up in 2011 and whether any S/L cash will be available to fund development of the other acreages.

There could be an AUT price surge after favourable Turnbull results but a 2-rig development programme of S/L for the rest of 2010 could result in ADI outpacing AUT in H2 2010.

My thoughts, FWIW - possibly very little.

In the meantime, I have to mull whether to pocket 70k free ADI shares. The only certainty is that there is no way that I would take cash out at this time.


----------



## choppy

Agentm said:


> But flow rates will decline. That‟s inevitable. How fast only time will tell. It is not unusual to see up to a 30% decline in the first year. That decline could be offset by higher prices.




Sorry AgentM, but 30% is a pipe dream.  70% is much more likely.  The trend average is around 70-80% so far.


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Sorry AgentM, but 30% is a pipe dream.  70% is much more likely.  The trend average is around 70-80% so far.





i know that john campbells summary you quoted was rather like a pipe dream to many,  but he doesnt have some facts on the sugarkane on hand and much is being kept  quiet, but his summary on the declines are very interesting to watch on these wells, and imho can be validated

the kunde 1 well, the discovery well dropped from 17 mmcf to 12mmcf over 12 months..  not the 70% or 80% you refer to, but it still had a mild decline of 30%.

its pretty nice acreages in the sugarkane, and there are good reasons to believe that the 70-80% declines you mention may happen, but on the other hand, you may be surprised to know it can also be as john campbell says..

i am keeping an open mind on the sugarkane.. as am following and investing into the sugarkane Cretaceous play very much on the finer points that these rocks deliver


----------



## choppy

Agentm said:


> the kunde 1 well, the discovery well dropped from 17 mmcf to 12mmcf over 12 months..  not the 70% or 80% you refer to, but it still had a mild decline of 30%.





That well dropped from 17mmcf to 10mmcf  per MONTH over the first year.  That is from approx 566 mcf per day to 333 mcf per day.  You have to understand the way vertical vs horizontal wells produce.  

The vertical well never has the high initial rates of a horizontal well and thus never has the high declines.  A vertical well production profile is like a horizontal well production profile 1 or 2 years in.  If you are factoring a 30% decline rate for these horizontal wells then you are grossly overestimating the potential reserves.


----------



## Miner

choppy said:


> That well dropped from 17mmcf to 10mmcf  per MONTH over the first year.  That is from approx 566 mcf per day to 333 mcf per day.  You have to understand the way vertical vs horizontal wells produce.
> 
> The vertical well never has the high initial rates of a horizontal well and thus never has the high declines.  A* vertical well production profile is like a horizontal well production profile 1 or 2 years in.  If you are factoring a 30% decline rate for these horizontal wells then you are grossly overestimating the potential reserves*.





Choppy 

For the first time I am getting nervous on ADI after reading what you said.
I am sure our  ADI guru AgentM will come back with more facts but until then - I am a bit shakened. Will not loose sleep as my average buy out of ADI is 8 cents but still who does not like paper profit ?

Regards


Agentm said:


> i know that john campbells summary you quoted was rather like a pipe dream to many,  but he doesnt have some facts on the sugarkane on hand and much is being kept  quiet, but his summary on the declines are very interesting to watch on these wells, and imho can be validated
> 
> the kunde 1 well, the discovery well dropped from 17 mmcf to 12mmcf over 12 months..  not the 70% or 80% you refer to, but it still had a mild decline of 30%.
> 
> its pretty nice acreages in the sugarkane, and there are good reasons to believe that the 70-80% declines you mention may happen, but on the other hand, you may be surprised to know it can also be as john campbell says..
> 
> i am keeping an open mind on the sugarkane.. as am following and investing into the sugarkane Cretaceous play very much on the finer points that these rocks deliver


----------



## Ramblin Round

Miner, what you may be forgetting is how manageable these multi stage fracs make this play. Most wells drilled for Sugarloaf/Eagle Ford are only fraccing, on average, 4 stages of say a 14 stage setup. So re-entry a few years down the road with coil tubing and another 4 stage frac gets it back to full production. You can do this a number of times while you're still in pay dirt. That's part of the beauty of what makes this shale play so significant.

DeWitt County and other counties around here are currently survey planning a water pipeline to provide continuous water flow. It is my belief that this water is to frac wells in Dewitt, Karnes County and all wells south and beyond.

Now think about this for a minute....... why would you spend hella money on a water pipeline if you are only trying to get wells to production _*once*_? This leads me to believe that this project has decades to continue producing and stimulating these wells with re-entries to revolve around the economics of oil and gas production and sales. DYOR but these are things I see with my own eyes here that I am reporting. Perhaps this makes you feel better about your ADI investment no ?


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## Agentm

choppy said:


> That well dropped from 17mmcf to 10mmcf  per MONTH over the first year.  That is from approx 566 mcf per day to 333 mcf per day.  You have to understand the way vertical vs horizontal wells produce.
> 
> The vertical well never has the high initial rates of a horizontal well and thus never has the high declines.  A vertical well production profile is like a horizontal well production profile 1 or 2 years in.  If you are factoring a 30% decline rate for these horizontal wells then you are grossly overestimating the potential reserves.




totally agree choppy. i was posting monthly figures. please dont suggest i am using those figures as daily production figures.. i am not forgetting to factor in anything choppy. i observe all the monthly flow rates and i see very healthy wells in the adi acreages, i dont see that in the AZZ well so far for instance..

choppy, your misquoting something and attributing it to me.. and i again point out that what i put on the forum had an author whom was john campbell, not myself.. i merely looked around for wells that he may be quoting and found one, and as i said, the well went from 17mmcfpm to 12 mmcfpm over the 12 months,  30% decline, which i assume is what john used.. i have not studied declines so far as most of the conoco wells are in the chalks, these are the first wells that are proper in the eagleford.  i also noted several obvious grammer mistakes and its very likely there are further mistakes in the transcripts. i also agree that JC has never been correct on anything on the eagleford up till now when he has dramatically changed course and derision on the play itself, the jvp and the operator.

most wells have declined 80%, that what the jvp are relying on, i was just pointing out that there is data pointing to a slower decline..

choppy, when you say.."Sorry AgentM, but 30% is a pipe dream. 70% is much more likely. The trend average is around 70-80% so far."  then i agree entirely on the pipe dream, but i was just pointing out how john may have concluded it. and with higher calorific content and very much high end results from the chalks/eagleford completions drilled by hilcorp, i think the economics are very much in control atm on a stellar acreage position. 

i have seen many presentations where the declines of the wells are mentioned

this from a broker covering aut

Shale Attributes
The Eagle Ford shale is in its infancy with a production history of less than 2 years. However the results seen to date suggest that it could be one of the most productive and high value shales. Some 50 wells have now been drilled with a success rate of 100%. Decline curves used to predict the wells were initially based on those observed in the Haynesville Shale, however early results suggest that the initial decline rates are lower than this. *Decline is estimated at ~80% in year 1 followed by ~45% in year 2 and 30% in year 3*. Chesapeake Energy has been operating in the Haynesville for a number of years and recently published a decline curve based on the aggregated data from 56 wells from 2008, as did Petrohawk Energy in a recent presentation:

i note these comments in a recent presentation by aut in april

*Production casing strings have not yet been installed in these wells.Competitor reports indicate improved production following ultimate
deployment of production tubing.*

Preliminary Results Indicate Robust Economics

Industry analysis shows the Eagle
Ford to be one of the best shale
plays in North America

Project Returns improve with
increased Condensate and NGL
yields

AUT acreage has condensate yields
of 75 – 300 bbl/mmscf and high
yield gas ~1250 BTU/scf

AUT’s initial well results compare very favourably with the best regional Eagle
Ford wells

*The solid IP rates extrapolated using analogue decline rates suggest that within the current cost structure, AUT’s Eagle Ford shale acreage will be very
economic*


----------



## Agentm

Ramblin Round said:


> Miner, what you may be forgetting is how manageable these multi stage fracs make this play. Most wells drilled for Sugarloaf/Eagle Ford are only fraccing, on average, 4 stages of say a 14 stage setup. So re-entry a few years down the road with coil tubing and another 4 stage frac gets it back to full production. You can do this a number of times while you're still in pay dirt. That's part of the beauty of what makes this shale play so significant.
> 
> DeWitt County and other counties around here are currently survey planning a water pipeline to provide continuous water flow. It is my belief that this water is to frac wells in Dewitt, Karnes County and all wells south and beyond.
> 
> Now think about this for a minute....... why would you spend hella money on a water pipeline if you are only trying to get wells to production _*once*_? This leads me to believe that this project has decades to continue producing and stimulating these wells with re-entries to revolve around the economics of oil and gas production and sales. DYOR but these are things I see with my own eyes here that I am reporting. Perhaps this makes you feel better about your ADI investment no ?




i agree rambling on your point on pipeline companies

we know there is a pipeline company that recently set up offices in karnes county, and local talk is that they are not there for the cheap rent..

i am hearing conoco and eog are most likely to be on their client list, and perhaps a few others..

adi is central to the most leased county, karnes is nearly 100% leased atm.. no other counties match this level of leasing

its also noteworthy that petrohawk have spoken about the eagleford being more oily in the return as  it trends east to west from lasalle and mcmullen, and we note the shorter laterals in kennedy and weston pretty easily match the petrohawk 5000 feet completions to the west.  the morgan well imho is one of the highest stabilised ip flow rates i have seen in the region

i am of the belief that the adi acreages are right in the heart of a very sweet region, its attracting a lot of competitor attention, and i am not convinced hilcorp are walking from the jvp nor from these acreages at all. my belief is that hilcorp will continue to develop these acreages and produce from them.. its obvious by the way the sp is trending  that its a story not believed by the shareholders keen to exit, but i think the current prices are attractive if you understand the possibility of hilcorp developing the ami eagleford is very likely. there is significant upside to adi if the punters exiting today are miscalculating this and i am more of the opinion that the recent broker reports talk of progressing this play is very much a realistic outcome..



all imho and dyor..


----------



## condog

Adi is cheap cheap cheap at present.

Choppy, plenty of evidence floating around now indicateing significantly reduced declines in newer wells then from last year. 30% in yr one is almost being unanimously quoted now.

Rambling agree - with re-entries, the chalks and the eagleford, plus perhaps down to 50 acre well spacing there is many many years left. 

I note looking at recent available lease data there is plenty of non leased acerage in the oil window and id hope the JVP's get cash flow early enough to not only drill but secure more acerage in the oil window.

Agent have to agree. Morgan blows everything away. These things can easily be re fracced much much longer then they are currently doing. Up in the bakken they have 32 stage and the odd 36 stage frac happening with some upwards of 9000 feet. 

Ieveitably technology will bring those horizontals into play in the Eagle ford. The future will also involve imo re-drilling these wells with longer horizontals and also up inthe Austins when the eagleford flows are depleated for each well. Could be wrong, but i see 10-15 years in these acerages alone.


----------



## lemontree

In my opinion now is a good time to stock up on ADI, it's going for cheaper than before the Morgan IP results! I suspect it'd have to do with the 22mil issues shares distrubted just yesterday ;p


----------



## Agie82

Ramblin, I personnally know of land leased for a large pipeline ROW come up FM 1116 from Westhoff towards Gonzales.  I was coming back from Victoria and notice a staking crew working on the north side of 87 from Cuero to about 4 miles out of Westhoff.  The pipeline supposedly has 4 lines, 2 oil, 1 gas, and 1 unkown, water???  But then Gonzales County is on top of 3 aquifers, Corrizo Wilcox being the largest.  Hilcorp now has 6 permits on Barnhart country between Pilgrim and Westhoff and EOG is permitting more wells just west of Cheapside.  All I know right now.


----------



## condog

Any of our USA correspondants know whether the frac crews have tapped that big Keg known as Morgan and got it flowing to sales yet. I will be bitterly dissapointed if i find out on the asx before the forums.

Last time you only gave us about a days notice, thats slipping guys. LOL


----------



## Agentm

condog said:


> Any of our USA correspondants know whether the frac crews have tapped that big Keg known as Morgan and got it flowing to sales yet. I will be bitterly dissapointed if i find out on the asx before the forums.
> 
> Last time you only gave us about a days notice, thats slipping guys. LOL





condog the morgan announcement was a week ago on the asx

5 May 2010

Morgan #1H

Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section as per the frac design, the Morgan #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 27 April 2010. The well production has now stabilized and the following Initial Production rate was achieved:

· 5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or 31 mmscfe/d


hope it helps


----------



## rock86

Think condog probably meant to say Rancho. In saying that have a look at them flow rates, incredible yet we are still so cheap. Just imagine if they did start drilling and fraccing 9000 feet horizontals in our sweet spot acreage, flow rates would be unseen.


----------



## condog

rock86 said:


> Think condog probably meant to say Rancho. In saying that have a look at them flow rates, incredible yet we are still so cheap. Just imagine if they did start drilling and fraccing 9000 feet horizontals in our sweet spot acreage, flow rates would be unseen.




Yep its a typo, meant to say Rancho...clearly Morgans flwoing ive only made about 40 posts on it....any news on Rancho


----------



## dazby

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------















Australian Equities Research




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.64) Buy, Initiation of Coverage 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Initiation of Coverage

Investment Highlights

?      AUT is a liquids-rich shale gas producer, focused upon the highly prospective Eagle Ford Shale in on-shore Texas .

?      Low geological risk underpins a growing production profile, reserve base and strong earnings.

?      AUT hold a material position within the high condensate yielding Sugarkane Field within the Eagle Ford Shale trend. 

?      JV partnership with Hilcorp provides experienced shale gas operator to extract maximum value from the acreage. 

?      Flow rates (initial, 30 and 60 day), from AUT’s existing wells are among the best recorded in the Eagle Ford to date.

?      Recent transactions value prospective shale acreage in the US at US$19,000/acre and include all of the Majors. This values AUT @ A$210m or $0.95/sh.

?      AUT is cheap with EV/boe of A$4/boe, based on 1C resources of 100bcf gas and 17mmbbls of condensate.

?      An upgrade to resources and a maiden reserve expected Sept Q’10, with at least 6-7 wells on production by mid-year.

?      Continued reserves growth with an active drilling campaign over the next 10 years. 

?      On current conservative production forecasts, AUT can be +2mmboe (or 5,500boepd) producer by FY’13 and double total production by FY’15.

?      AUT has A$9m in cash and no debt.

?      Quality management, underpinned by strong technical team and a strategic partnership with a proven shale gas operator.

?      We initiate coverage with Buy and a price target of $1.02/sh.


----------



## choppy

condog said:


> Choppy, plenty of evidence floating around now indicateing significantly reduced declines in newer wells then from last year. 30% in yr one is almost being unanimously quoted now.




Show me some evidence if you believe this to be true.  In my opinion,  from studying the production data,  this is unequivocally false.  If you look at EOG's decline rate type curves from their April presentation you will see huge decline rates.


----------



## Ramblin Round

Agie - Petrohawk has again partnered with Kinder Morgan and have a sub entity called Kinder Hawk now in which they are on the pipeline projects with.

Petrohawk and Geo Southern are a 66%/33% JV. 

For some strange reason just recently Lower Colorado river Authority (LCRA) has bought up many right-of-ways and are surveying the electric lines and rights to many areas around here. I'm not sure how thye fit in except for just surveying thus far. But they ahve went and cleaned up many of their electrical right-of-ways and are currently doing the surveying for the pipelines.


----------



## estseon

I posted this on the AUT board by mistake (the discussion on depletion is on this board):

Re Depletions:

Go to http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/PDQ/q...ilderAction.do

Lease 245465 (gas well) district 02 for the period 1/1/09 to 1/1/10 Baker 1

The production is all over the shop but at Jan 09 was 10.3 MMCFG + 2,148 bbls and in Jan 10 was 25.6mmcfg + 1,867 bbls.

It was obviously shut in during part of Sep 09 for further works. Possibly Nov 09 also. COP won't stop tinkering with them. It's in the chalk. EME has an interest in this one.

March 09 was 47.2 mmcfg + 3,862 bbls - that was the peak.

So Jan 10 was 50% of the peak subject to the caveat that the operator is constantly tinkering with it. The 12 month comparison gives 250% gas and 85% of oil - no depletion if the two are taken together (gas + oil).

These are actual results in Live Oak, next door.

Postscript.

Those are monthly figures. They put Morgan into perspective.


----------



## Agentm

2 new permits from conoco into karnes county..
edith gray from a few weeks back and the new  yanta cattle co permit

as previously disclosed many weeks back, the murphy drees well was brilliant

these wells are on trend and just to the east of the adi acreages..  

the murphy drees well and the recent pioneer well which is a good deal south and east of the adi acreages are very critical wells and completely reinforce the nature of the play in karnes county.. which imho is demonstrating some staggering results time and again.. and confirming the adi acreages are right in the heart of the best results seen thus far..

Murphy Oil - Eagle Ford Shale - First Quarter Of 2010 Update - Part One

Murphy Oil (MUR) reported earnings for the first quarter of 2010, and held a conference call to discuss the results. The company disclosed additional details on its acreage in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas.

Murphy Oil (MUR) has accumulated more than 200,000 net acres across the oil and gas windows and has 2 rigs operating in the Eagle Ford Shale. The company has drilled 4 wells and reported the results of the Drees A-79 1-H and George Miles #1 well.

*Drees A-79 1-H Well

“In the oil trend our number Drees number one in Karnes County came in at 1462-barrels of oil a day plus 1.25 million cubic feet of gas and had a 30-day production average of 1264-barrels of oil and 1.1 million cubic feet of gas per day. Clearly, a very strong well, and one that sets us up for a nice development.”*

*“The oil well in the Carnes is a great well and today, I was looking this morning before I came in and it's flowing 860-barrels of oil and 770,000 cubic feet. So that's after almost 60 days, 58 days today of production, so a real strong well.”
*
George Miles Well

“The second well in this acreage block spud shortly. The other two drilled wells are situated in the gas trend and are in various stages of completion. The earlier reported well test at the George Miles number one well in McMullen County is producing at less than 1 million cubic feet a day.”

“Here (George Miles well) our frac treatment did not open up all of the zones we thought and we are re-looking at our options. We have just completed a previously drilled well Ash Number 1 purchased as part of an acreage drill that's in LaSalle County and clean up is just above 2 million cubic feet a day.”

“Our budget for the Eagle Ford this near had a nominal 10 million cubic feet a day and clearly we aim to improve on that. On the beauty of this particular play is the ability to ship focus between the oil to the gas parts as product prices dictate.We’ve got $115 million in our budget for Eagle Ford spend.”



you can see the massive differences in well results from karnes to mcmullen over and over again


this  is the recent pioneer result well south of the adi trend

The Chesnutt Gas Unit #1 well, which is located in Karnes County, Texas, tested at an initial production rate of 15.6 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (including 14.1 million cubic feet of gas per day and 255 barrels of condensate per day) on a 24/64 inch choke with approximately 5,600 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure. The liquids-rich gas contains 1,200 British thermal units per cubic foot. The well was drilled to a vertical depth of approximately 13,300 feet and completed in a 4,100-foot lateral section with a 12-stage fracture stimulation.


all imho and dyor


----------



## condog

I noted another Aussie junior in a JV in the Bakken pulled off a 9600ft Horizontal with over 2800boepd announced yesterday. Be nice when / if we start cracking rock that size in the Eagleford. They only have a small interest so dont go looking for them. The point is the lengths of fracs and flows that the technology is bringing. Im not sure on the cost of the well, would like to know, as Im pretty sure they are saying only $5M per well now for those lengths. 

Bring it on hilcorp.


----------



## choppy

Agentm said:


> *Drees A-79 1-H Well
> 
> “In the oil trend our number Drees number one in Karnes County came in at 1462-barrels of oil a day plus 1.25 million cubic feet of gas and had a 30-day production average of 1264-barrels of oil and 1.1 million cubic feet of gas per day. Clearly, a very strong well, and one that sets us up for a nice development.”*
> 
> *“The oil well in the Carnes is a great well and today, I was looking this morning before I came in and it's flowing 860-barrels of oil and 770,000 cubic feet. So that's after almost 60 days, 58 days today of production, so a real strong well.”
> *




As you can see that is a 42% decline in condensate production (30% decline in gas production) in the first 60 days, and this well is touted as one of the best.  This play is definetely going to be economic,  but lets just recognize that it isn't going generate some totally insane rate of return.


----------



## Hatchy

choppy said:


> As you can see that is a 42% decline in condensate production (30% decline in gas production) in the first 60 days, and this well is touted as one of the best.  This play is definetely going to be economic,  but lets just recognize that it isn't going generate some totally insane rate of return.




Drees being touted as one of the best? pffft. They'll tout anything won't they! 

Is there a play that does deliver an insane rate of return? 

I'm happy with it being economic and delivering a sustainable rate of return.


----------



## condog

choppy when i talk about declines im not comparing them to IP's. Im comparing them to 30 or 60 day averages. then the flow rates at 12 months. This is at or below 30% for most now using the nezer horizntal fracs with lenty of stages imo. I dont have time to go digging data.

Of course Ip's will decline, its like popping a baloon.


----------



## choppy

condog said:


> choppy when i talk about declines im not comparing them to IP's. Im comparing them to 30 or 60 day averages. then the flow rates at 12 months. This is at or below 30% for most now using the nezer horizntal fracs with lenty of stages imo. I dont have time to go digging data.
> 
> Of course Ip's will decline, its like popping a baloon.




The rates that were quoted for some of the hillcorp wells were ip's not 30 or 60 day average rate.  By the way,  you don't calculate decline curves using averages.  First year decline rate is equal to 100 minus the rate at day 365 divided by the rate at day 1.  Another way to calculate it would be 100 minus the 12th month production divided by the 1st month production (can be confusing bc the first month reported isn't always a full month and that can hide some of the actual decline.)

Looking at the data i still don't see any wells that have a 30% decline in the first year, even calculating it your way.


----------



## estseon

"First year decline rate is equal to 100 minus the rate at day 365 divided by the rate at day 1. Another way to calculate it would be 100 minus the 12th month production divided by the 1st month production"

Please explain.

Firstly, you talk about rates of decline.

Then you equate rate of decline to physical production and bring in an absurdity (100 - 12th month production.....)

I can only make sense of [(Prod month 1-Prod month 13*)/Prod month 1] x 100

* using month 13 ensures a full 12 months temporal span. If the production for month 12 is used instead, so be it.

We are talking about Sugarloaf and we have not yet seen full production from the completed wells. None have had production tubing installed. The Live Oak results (a few miles away) are on TRRC's website.


----------



## gerkin02

From ADI management.

Expect 80% decline in production (1st year),40% decline 2nd year.

50% of EUR produced in first 18 months.

All the best.


----------



## Agentm

gerkin02 said:


> From ADI management.
> 
> Expect 80% decline in production (1st year),40% decline 2nd year.
> 
> 50% of EUR produced in first 18 months.
> 
> All the best.




seems to match up with the AUT statements perfectly

i have posted them also

well done for posting that up gerkin, it may stop the debate, who knows?


----------



## choppy

estseon said:


> Firstly, you talk about rates of decline.
> 
> Then you equate rate of decline to physical production and bring in an absurdity (100 - 12th month production.....)
> 
> I can only make sense of [(Prod month 1-Prod month 13*)/Prod month 1] x 100
> 
> * using month 13 ensures a full 12 months temporal span. If the production for month 12 is used instead, so be it.




Sorry if I was confusing bc I didn't use parantheses  it should have read 1.00-(12th month divided by 1st month).

Anyway you slice it 30% is a pipe dream.  I am glad ADI cleared it up for all you dreamers/rampers out there.


----------



## Agentm

choppy said:


> Sorry if I was confusing bc I didn't use parantheses  it should have read 1.00-(12th month divided by 1st month).
> 
> Anyway you slice it 30% is a pipe dream.  I am glad ADI cleared it up for all you dreamers/rampers out there.




as did petrohawk for me

lol  

i love it when the likes of petrohawk ramp the regions that imho are lesser in quality to the karnes county  region,,

this is what they say just on mcmullen county wells on their website


_*Production data from the four wells completed to date indicates lower initial annual decline rates, and a flatter hyperbolic decline, than those observed in other shale plays*_

_These measurements, as they relate to other shale plays, suggest that the Eagle Ford Shale in this particular area is *one of the highest quality shale reservoirs discovered to date in the United States*._

i do think petrohawk were correct on their analysis..

i equally like the murphy comment on the shale play in karnes, they compare their mcmullen gas well and the karnes county oil wells and make a very obvious comment..

Drees A-79 1-H Well

“In the oil trend our number Drees number one in Karnes County came in at 1462-barrels of oil a day plus 1.25 million cubic feet of gas and had a 30-day production average of 1264-barrels of oil and 1.1 million cubic feet of gas per day. Clearly, a very strong well, and one that sets us up for a nice development.”

*“The oil well in the Karnes is a great well and today, I was looking this morning before I came in and it's flowing 860-barrels of oil and 770,000 cubic feet. So that's after almost 60 days, 58 days today of production, so a real strong well.”
*
George Miles Well

“The second well in this acreage block spud shortly. The other two drilled wells are situated in the gas trend and are in various stages of completion. The earlier reported well test at the George Miles number one well in McMullen County is producing at less than 1 million cubic feet a day.”

“Here (George Miles well) our frac treatment did not open up all of the zones we thought and we are re-looking at our options. We have just completed a previously drilled well Ash Number 1 purchased as part of an acreage drill that's in LaSalle County and clean up is just above 2 million cubic feet a day.”

“Our budget for the Eagle Ford this near had a nominal 10 million cubic feet a day and clearly we aim to improve on that. On the beauty of this particular play is the ability to ship focus between the oil to the gas parts as product prices dictate.We’ve got $115 million in our budget for Eagle Ford spend.”






what the likes of petrohawk and murphy are saying about the eagleford may be pipe dreams and ramping to some, but imho they are still very very valid comments and i will maintain my position in the jvp, and in particular in the cashed up adi share.

i am satisfied that hilcorp have achieved comparably, the best performances in their results for the jvp seen in the eagleford..

i may be dreaming as choppy suggests, but the eagleford is showing decreases in early declines all the time, imho there have been many improvements in the eagleford region since the early wells went in..

pipe dreams and ramping by the major companies like conoco, murphy and pioneer, and smaller outfits like petrohawk.. and the entry of many more majors like exxon and others leaves me to believe these pipe dreams may be believed by many more..

adi was extremely fortunate to be able to secure excellent acreages very early on through the excellent work of conoco and tcei..

i dont think the play in the ami is a pipe dream, and the recent ramping announcements of the morgan well speaks for itself in terms of how good it is,,



5 May 2010

Morgan #1H

Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section as per the frac design, the Morgan #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 27 April 2010. The well production has now stabilized and the following Initial Production rate was achieved:

*5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or 31 mmscfe/d*

good luck to all holders


----------



## WRONG'UN

Gerkin02
Are the ADI management talking about:
the difference between the initial production rate and the production rate 12 months later.
or
the difference between the production rate at the end of the first month and the production rate 12 months later
or
the difference between the average production rate of the first month (month 1) and the average production rate for month 13 - ie 12 months of decline
or
something else

It is really important that we are absolutely clear on what we are talking about.


----------



## Agentm

although in lasalle and mcmullen to the west, they only have eagleford, the sugarkane, which is austin chalks and eagleford is a different play in some respect

it has the same characteristics in the eagleford, plenty of oil, and so far in our region the play is as good as it gets..

then if you follow the comments from conoco then the chalks aspect speaks for itself

http://www.conocophillips.com/EN/in...alls/Documents/Analyst Meeting Transcript.pdf

I'd just reinforce the Eagle Ford. At this time we have a big position in the Eagle Ford - *we've amassed over 300,000 acres in the overall Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford trend, about 240,000 of that in the sweet spot of just the Eagle Ford,* the rest of that in the nice Austin Chalk play. We continued to drive down costs and see such good rates that we decided not to flip any of our acreage and we're just ramping up rigs now.


For example, we are in a very oily part of the play relative to some of the competition,* Petrohawk and others in a more dry gas part of the play*. Last fall, we tested a well at a rate of about 4.5 million cubic feet a day and 1,800 barrels of condensate per day.

So, over 11 million cubic feet equivalent a day, but two-thirds of that liquids.

*So, this high liquid content, the high value, is consistent with our strategy of delivering near-term value in the liquid side, and we're adding rigs to the play, and really focused on Eagle Ford now, but what we haven't talked about much is equally interesting.*

*Stacked over most of our Eagle Ford acreage is a beautiful Austin Chalk play*. We've drilled some laterals in the Austin Chalk and achieved exceptional rates, good liquids content in the Austin Chalk as well. So, I expect we'll be exploiting that play for a decade later; *after we're done with the Eagle Ford, coming back and hitting most of the Austin Chalk with laterals.*

lol 


still dreaming on i guess, but so is ole conoco imho..

maybe they are right about the play maybe they are wrong.. but all data i have seen points me in the direction of investing in adi.. its cashed up and ready to run on this play right now.. 

all imho (and conoco's)  and dyor..


----------



## rcm617

If you look at figures from kennedy and weston and take off the 30 day production from the 60 day production, you get a decline of 34% for condensate and 8.7% for gas from the first month to the second month.


----------



## Agentm

rcm617 said:


> If you look at figures from kennedy and weston and take off the 30 day production from the 60 day production, you get a decline of 34% for condensate and 8.7% for gas from the first month to the second month.




absolutely correct..

i think it been stated many many times in the last days what the declines are and pretty much cleared up..  pretty nice decline there and those wells are reported as this

Kennedy #1H
This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.

Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)

Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^

60 day gross production

Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^

Weston #1H

This well has been on continuous production since 16 February 2010 and has not yet had production tubing installed. The 60 day gross production has been estimated to allow comparisons to be made.

Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)

Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^

60 day gross production*

Total Gas – 342 mmscf (average 5.7 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 21,351 bbls (average 356 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.4 mmscfe/d^
^equivalent gas rates have been calculated using an industry standard 12:1 conversion of oil to gas and an uplift to the gas volume of 25% representing the high calorific content of the gas.
*this figure is based on 57 days data and 3 days extrapolation based on the decline observed in the last day of reported data

On 25 March 2010 Adelphi reported 30 day average production figures (calculated on the same basis) and these were: Weston #1H – 11.5 mmscfe/d and Kennedy #1H – 11.7 mmscfe/d.

By comparison the Petrohawk (NYSE:HK) announcement released on 01/02/10 had a 30 day average from 19 wells in its Hawkville Field at 7.8 mmscfe/d and a 60 day average from 18 wells at 6.6 mmscfe/d when calculated on a 12:1 basis.

Sugarloaf AMI Fracture Stimulation Program

Adelphi has been advised that due to a late scheduling change, the Morgan #1H well will now be the first well to be fracced ahead of the Easley #1H well with operations expected to start very shortly.

Chris Hodge, Adelphi Managing Director commented that: "The 60 day average production results from the first 2 farmout wells are excellent and confirm the highly prospective nature of the Sugarloaf area. We look forward to the results of the forthcoming fracture stimulation operations on our next three Sugarloaf wells which we expect to further demonstrate the production potential across a large proportion of our acreage. Our Operator is to be 
commended for having drilled these wells very quickly and efficiently, with the resultant drilling cost reductions significantly enhancing well economics."


----------



## Sdajii

This might be a stupid question (I am a biologist, not a geologist)...

The plan is to Eagle Ford is below the Austin Chalk. If the Eagle Ford hydrocarbons are extracted, is it possible that the hydrocarbons from the Austin Chalk above could seep down and become less available for extraction?

This may take hundreds or thousands or millions of years rather than a short few, or it may be a stupid thing to wonder at all, but can someone comment?


I also think it's interesting that the claim was made in the AUT presentation that improvements have been made in IP rates and early decline rates. If these are improving, doesn't it follow that the excellent IP rate from the most recent well could be due to improved methods/technology rather than being in a good position? Hey, even if the high rate is from improved technology it makes our position strong, if we get to sell the oil and skip into the sunset with the profits I don't really care about whether we had some nice drilling or nice land.

I think it would be good if we could get a better understanding of the relevance of IP rates and a firmer grasp of decline rates. At the moment it seems like some people are trying to extrapolate unreliably (whether underestimating or overestimating, I am not sure). If the methods are changing, it follows that comparing the IP rates and decline rates of different wells is like comparing apples and oranges. We don't seem to be able to decide on a typical rate of decline, and claims range from 30% to 80%, which is puzzling to a biologist.


----------



## Hatchy

All this talk of "pipe" dreams, and the dreams are a reality because we have oil and gas flowing to sales through a pipe.... I'm actually quite sure pictures have surfaced here of that actual pipe. 

Why the surfing reference of 'pipe' dream? seems a bit off skew.


----------



## lemontree

Sdajii said:


> This might be a stupid question (I am a biologist, not a geologist)...
> 
> The plan is to Eagle Ford is below the Austin Chalk. If the Eagle Ford hydrocarbons are extracted, is it possible that the hydrocarbons from the Austin Chalk above could seep down and become less available for extraction?
> 
> This may take hundreds or thousands or millions of years rather than a short few, or it may be a stupid thing to wonder at all, but can someone comment?
> 
> 
> I also think it's interesting that the claim was made in the AUT presentation that improvements have been made in IP rates and early decline rates. If these are improving, doesn't it follow that the excellent IP rate from the most recent well could be due to improved methods/technology rather than being in a good position? Hey, even if the high rate is from improved technology it makes our position strong, if we get to sell the oil and skip into the sunset with the profits I don't really care about whether we had some nice drilling or nice land.
> 
> I think it would be good if we could get a better understanding of the relevance of IP rates and a firmer grasp of decline rates. At the moment it seems like some people are trying to extrapolate unreliably (whether underestimating or overestimating, I am not sure). If the methods are changing, it follows that comparing the IP rates and decline rates of different wells is like comparing apples and oranges. We don't seem to be able to decide on a typical rate of decline, and claims range from 30% to 80%, which is puzzling to a biologist.




30 Day decline rates reported thus far are ~30%, gerkin posted an 80% first year decline followed by a 40% decline in the second year. So our main interest should lie in whether the play is economically viable and how much money could be made from it as such. I think i read somewhere that the play would be economically viable even at $45/bbl oil. I do not have the necessary sources to back up what i'm saying, this is just my own speculation.


----------



## Sdajii

Haha! True true, this literally IS a pipe dream!



lemontree said:


> 30 Day decline rates reported thus far are ~30%, gerkin posted an 80% first year decline followed by a 40% decline in the second year. So our main interest should lie in whether the play is economically viable and how much money could be made from it as such. I think i read somewhere that the play would be economically viable even at $45/bbl oil. I do not have the necessary sources to back up what i'm saying, this is just my own speculation.




Clearly we need to know if this is economically viable and if so how viable, and if there was a bottom line, that would be it.

Presumably whether or not it is viable depends primarily on three things:

1) Cost of setting up infrastructure

2) Amount of oil produced

3) Price of oil

(yes, there will be ongoing costs associated with maintenance etc, but my understanding it that the bulk of the costs come from putting a well in the ground, setting up the pipe, etc, and other costs are small in comparison).

My understanding is that we have a reasonably good idea of the cost of the wells (5-7 million dollars or something in that ball park).

We can then presumably say "At x barrels produced on average per well, oil would need to cost $y per barrel in order for this to be viable". This could fairly easily be plotted on an x-y axis with a parameter of, say, profitable equals wells paid off after 12 (or six or 24 or 70, etc) months. Price of oil on the x axis, production per well required on the y. Then we just need to try to extrapolate how much oil we'll get per well based on currently available data.

To say that this would be viable at $45 per barrel implies you have a very accurate figure on how much oil we are going to be producing per well, but I think at this point it's unrealistic to have that. We're still working with two big unknown values (market oil price and production/production efficiency/cost of producing each barrel). If you ask a hundred people on the street if the price of oil is going to go up or down over the next few years, at least 98 will probably say up. We can *probably* assume oil is going to remain a valuable commodity, and if anything it will be higher in a year or two than it is now (if anyone wants to disagree, please shoot me down).

So, if we can look at the IP rates so far, we should be able to work out what decline rates are necessary for this to be viable (assuming our average IP rate to date is indicative of the average IP rates we'll get in the future). The maths is easy and I love to crunch numbers, but there are gaps in the data I need to start crunching. If we assume oil will remain around where it is, we can plot decline rate on the x axis and profit on the y axis.

If the above graphs sound worth seeing, I'm happy to make them if anyone wants to confirm a few figures and assumptions.


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## philly

whilst everyone here is pre occupied with production rates and flow rates I am comforted by the fact that 2 ADI directors have purchased more shares this week - on 11/5/10 Mr Hodge  brought 25000 shares @ 0.265 cents each and on 12/5/10 Mr Forcke  brought 50000 shares @ 0.265 cents each. This has to be a positive sign. Good news coming soon I expect. I am a holder


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## Sdajii

philly said:


> whilst everyone here is pre occupied with production rates and flow rates I am comforted by the fact that 2 ADI directors have purchased more shares this week - on 11/5/10 Mr Hodge  brought 25000 shares @ 0.265 cents each and on 12/5/10 Mr Forcke  brought 50000 shares @ 0.265 cents each. This has to be a positive sign. Good news coming soon I expect. I am a holder




Either good news coming, or maybe more likely, the directors just understand how underpriced they were at 26.5c! Either way, it's a positive sign


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## Agentm

lol

this from another forum

gotta love the talk over there in the Uk on eme,  a small partner in the sugarkane AMI ..  hearing a lot of talk on kowalik from all over the place.. nothing like this though

claims it came straight from the horses mouth

lets see if the reliable posts this person has placed over the years comes through

bishopawn - 14 May'10 - 13:49 - 80490 of 80527

Contact has it that things are going very well indeed at the moment = "extremely well" to be exact. 2 to 5 rigs on the go for the rest of the year because they have been so successful at Sugar. Kowalik will be done by the end of June is the talk at the mo. They know what they are doing. Bring it all on boys and some.


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## Miner

Agentm said:


> lol
> 
> this from *another forum*
> 
> gotta love the talk over there in the Uk on eme,  a small partner in the sugarkane AMI ..  hearing a lot of talk on kowalik from all over the place.. nothing like this though
> 
> claims it came straight from the horses mouth
> 
> lets see if the reliable posts this person has placed over the years comes through
> 
> bishopawn - 14 May'10 - 13:49 - 80490 of 80527
> 
> *Contact* has it that things are going very well indeed at the moment = "extremely well" to be exact. 2 to 5 rigs on the go for the rest of the year because they have been so successful at Sugar. Kowalik will be done by the end of June is the talk at the mo. They know what they are doing. Bring it all on boys and some.




Agentm

You  have  always demonstrated to be  a conformist of best practice and I mean it.
To align with that best practice, may be you please disclose the name of the forum and the contact.

Your contribution to ADI forum and all interactions have been truly to the top of any one I have ever seen. Commendations for that.

Please for heaven's sake do not consider I am having a Go with you . But in line with ASF guidelines reference of any real 'reference" without citing them probably a breach. No offence and you know where from I am coming.

Regards


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## condog

I did a quick google search and found chatter  from esteon and bishopawn  + others

http://www.advfn.com/lse/ShareChat.asp?sharechat=EME

ASF and i take no responsibility for content or safety of external links.

Not sure if its agent one hes referring to , but it seems like it, or its talking about similar contnet.


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## Miner

condog said:


> I did a quick google search and found chatter  from esteon and bishopawn  + others
> 
> http://www.advfn.com/lse/ShareChat.asp?sharechat=EME
> 
> ASF and i take no responsibility for content or safety of external links.
> 
> Not sure if its agent one hes referring to , but it seems like it, or its talking about similar contnet.




Thanks Condog or sparkling gem should I say 

Yes, it looks the site you linked is the site Agent referred. Thanks again.


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## condog

Miner said:


> Thanks Condog or sparkling gem should I say
> 
> Yes, it looks the site you linked is the site Agent referred. Thanks again.




Sparkling Gem??? is that a poster somewhere or are you getting affectionate towards me. Not too sure but it sounds funny, wish my boss would call me that


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## barney

Lol ... been waiting what seems a million years and now they are gona try and buy us out for 40 cents ..... Half the long term holders will only break even.

If Arc energy see immediate cash value at 40, what is this play really worth 

I won't be giving mine away easily.


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## Hatchy

This is BS
I cannot believe this could actually happen. 
There should be a law against this kind of muscling out. 
I will only just break even on a play that I was hoping to be in for the next 5 years. 

I didn't see this coming at such a low price. 

AWE you are the pits and I hope you don't succeed.


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## Bigukraine

hmmmm,

Agentm and condog would like to hear your take on these developments,,thanks in anticipation !


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## basilio

Interesting play isn't it ? Just shows that the potential value of the  Sugar Cane shales are being realised by the broader market.

So that means that ADI will have to spell out just how much their interests could earn and how that should translate into current /future value for the company.  Hopefully that will either raise the offer, bring in new bidders or convince shareholders to stick around.  (Depending on whether there are some big guys who want out and can swing the game.)

It will also throw the spotlight on AUT given their share of  the Sugar Cane interest. And of course if successful it will give AWE a big boost in value.


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## Hatchy

It could be that we are seeing just a low ball first offer. Fingers crossed everyone. 

The issue I see is that AWE once establishing a controlling share can just take the rest by force. That's why I think their actions are deplorable. 

I would really like to say what exactly i'm thinking, but it's against forum rules for bad language.


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## adobee

Seems a bit low and opportunistic to me.. they have done well to pick up an extrat 1% holding without any major share growth .. maybe they are just making an offer to inflate the value of there current holdings .. I wont be selling for less than $1 !


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## Hatchy

adobee said:


> Seems a bit low and opportunistic to me.. they have done well to pick up an extrat 1% holding without any major share growth .. maybe they are just making an offer to inflate the value of there current holdings .. I wont be selling for less than $1 !




Good to hear adobee, I'm with you. 

What's your take on them just taking it by force once all the opportunistic sellers that picked up shares at 6c sell up?


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## cicak_kupang

NOT OVER MY DEAD BODY AWE! well, not at 40c.  Come back witha $1+....
A bit bloody rude i think, even if they are allowed to do it...


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## Agentm

be staggered if management endorse the takeover offer

not close to the potential value this play offers

but it sure is a strong endorsement of how good that sugarkane is

i suggested a takeover myself a few weeks back, use the $10 mill cash to partially fund the payout of the shares

pretty clever move but i cant see it succeeding in its present form..


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## gdaf

Agentm said:


> be staggered if management endorse the takeover offer
> 
> not close to the potential value this play offers
> 
> but it sure is a strong endorsement of how good that sugarkane is
> 
> i suggested a takeover myself a few weeks back, use the $10 mill cash to partially fund the payout of the shares
> 
> pretty clever move but i cant see it succeeding in its present form..




There are some questions that need answering:

- Why did they just raise 5m?

- How many shares do AWE need to obtain a controlling stake?

- How many of these potential shares that are trying to be obtained by AWE are owned by directors? 

- How many are owned by us? IMO a tally should be started today that illustrates the collective percentage of shares held by ASF and Hotcopper users to give all holders an indication if their shareholding will make a difference to the prospect of AWE gaining a controlling stake. I'm happy to divulge my percentage holding, but would like to see others support this idea first.


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## adobee

Does ADI now stay in a trading halt ? If so for how long ?
How does the on market take over work .. they have a bid in at 40c for 10000000 shares .. people just sell now and they buy them up or they fill out a form  ? It doesnt allow others to take it higher on the presumption of a higher bid etc ?


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## lemontree

From my understanding, starting from next month, whoever decides to sell their shares to AWE can do so at 40c until the offer closes in july. Since it's unconditional i think you can just sell it off the bat, with no strings attached. Until next month, ADI will not be open for trade.


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## noco

Will ADI share holders have a choice or will it be TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT?

I'm with the others, $1.00 minimum or they can shove it where the sun don't shine!


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## gdaf

Macquarie to buy Adelphi for AWE   [MQG]   [AWE]   [ADI]
Mon 17-May-2010 09:07


Investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd has offered to buy petroleum explorer Adelphi Energy Ltd in cash on behalf of AWE Ltd, an oil and gas company.

Macquarie will pay 40 cents per Adelphi share on market in an unconditional offer, the Sydney-based investment bank said in a statement on Monday.

Shares in Adelphi, in which AWE already has a 33.8 per cent stake, closed at 28 cents on Friday, meaning that Macquarie's offer represents a 43 per cent premium.

Macquarie said it would accept Adelphi shares up to the close of trading on July 9, up to a maximum of 112 million shares, the number not already owned by AWE.

The offer period could be extended and the price may be increased in accordance with the corporations act, Macquarie said.

AWE chairman Bruce McKay encouraged Adelphi shareholders to accept the cash offer as soon as possible.

"As the Offer has no conditions it is able to be accepted immediately on market, with cash payment three trading days after your acceptance," Mr McKay said in the bidder's statement.

"I believe that AEL's Offer... is a compelling proposition."


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## adobee

what date would we expect to see some feeback from the directors .. this will obviously have a bearing on whether the offer will be increased. .. 

I am a bit perplexed as to why we did the cap raising which if not done would have meant an offer price of 50c + and why the directors were buying more shares very recently.. will be interesting to see what they recommend ..


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## basilio

> From my understanding, starting from next month, whoever decides to sell their shares to AWE can do so at 40c until the offer closes in july. Since it's unconditional i think you can just sell it off the bat, with no strings attached. Until next month, ADI will not be open for trade.




Whoa!!!  I would have thought there would need to be an immediate response from ADI management regarding the offer. In the circumstances that should outline the  results from the current drills and the evident potential of the fields.

It is a very cunning play. The market is falling through the floor so suddenly almost any offer looks good. The highlighting of  the "43% increase in value" for the shares is IMO quite misleading. It translates into just 12 c a share difference between the last sale  and the proposed buyout. Given this is an oil play  which is already showing excellent results with possibly very big profits the extra 12c seems miserly.

On the same theme I am surprised and bit suspicious at the way ADI shares have  actually fallen over the past week or so.  Given the drilling results a realistic expectation is that there would have been net buying pressure to push the shares to the low/mid 30's or higher. But they have actually fallen - and coincidentally there is now a takeover over bid theoretically based around a low SP of 28 cents. 
*
 Now why does that smell fishy when Maquarie Bank is the takeover merchant?* I think it would interesting to see the trades made over the last couple of weeks.

It is also not unusual for a small mining company with a big brother to eventually be taken over. Happened to PES, could easily happen to ESG. The important point is to somehow ensure that current ADI management ensures  that other shareholders get a fair return and sufficient information upon which to make a decision.


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## philly

adobee said:


> Does ADI now stay in a trading halt ? If so for how long ?
> How does the on market take over work .. they have a bid in at 40c for 10000000 shares .. people just sell now and they buy them up or they fill out a form  ? It doesnt allow others to take it higher on the presumption of a higher bid etc ?




ADOBEE
ADI is not in a trading halt
if someone wants to sell ADI then they tell their broker to sell to Maquarie and they get the 40 bits of silver in T + 3 days as normal. No forms to fill.

Memo to AWE pay up your subscription fees to Hartleys and come back to us when you are serious


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## Hatchy

The Board of Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) (ASX:ADI) acknowledges the receipt of an _*unsolicited*_ on-market takeover offer from AWE Limited (“AWE”).

The Board of Adelphi advises its shareholders should *TAKE NO ACTION* and await Adelphi’s further advice after it has properly considered the offer in consultation with its advisors, Hartleys Limited




Any questions, we're to call ADI


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## lemontree

basilio said:


> On the same theme I am surprised and bit suspicious at the way ADI shares have  actually fallen over the past week or so.  Given the drilling results a realistic expectation is that there would have been net buying pressure to push the shares to the low/mid 30's or higher. But they have actually fallen - and coincidentally there is now a takeover over bid theoretically based around a low SP of 28 cents.




I believe the SP was pushed back to 26c then rising again to 28c because of the recent capital raising. Institutions and sophisticated investors were able to buy ADI shares at 25c, so they were unloading like crazy while making a profit. Was a good time to buy in at 26 - 28c


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## solomon

Look at it another way.

It is obviously not a serious offer. You would have to be a goon to take it. So it looks like it puts a floor under the price for the next 6 weeks, which could be a very good thing.

PS I have not held for 2 years and wish i was.


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## rock86

I'm not as big as a holder as most on this forum, but bought in at a 7c average and still have been holding for less then a year. I have a very good profit at the moment (for me) and the tax implications would ruin my profit, was at least waiting for $1 which would have seen me holding for 1+ years and in a much better tax position.

Go and get you know what AWE, 40c is a JOKE


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## adobee

SO who is buying at 41c ?????
Its not me ... I can believe I sold out half my small holding last week to use the cash for a trade in AKM as I thought not much would be happening for a couple of weeks !!


----------



## Agentm

so is awe chasing down the aut share next?

based on the valuations they offer for adi the current aut price is a steal..

minimum price 100 cents for aut..


----------



## philly

gdaf said:


> There are some questions that need answering:
> 
> - Why did they just raise 5m?
> 
> - How many shares do AWE need to obtain a controlling stake?
> 
> - How many of these potential shares that are trying to be obtained by AWE are owned by directors?
> 
> - How many are owned by us? IMO a tally should be started today that illustrates the collective percentage of shares held by ASF and Hotcopper users to give all holders an indication if their shareholding will make a difference to the prospect of AWE gaining a controlling stake. I'm happy to divulge my percentage holding, but would like to see others support this idea first.




GDAF
ADI has 147,271 380 shares on issue
AWE needs 50.1% = 73,782,962 shares to gain a controlling stake
As at 10.00am this morning AWE has 57,200,533
AWE needs another 16, 582, 429 shares
This isn't a lot as the top 20 shareholders [As at 23 April 2010] hold as follows:
Rank Shareholder Total Units  
1 ARC Energy Limited 47,864,000 
2 Mr Alexander Forcke 3,000,000  
3 ANZ Nominees Limited <Cash Income A/C> 1,918,633 
4 D J W & J D Allman S/F A/C 1,750,000 
5 Riley Group 1,742,779 
6 Streitberg Family  1,705,000 
7 Mrs Sharon Teresa Lydeamore 1,580,000 
8 Mr Leigh David Kalazich 1,571,563 
9 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 1,377,276 
10 Palethorpe Super Fund A/C  1,300,000 
11 Chatterton Family Super A/C 1,252,446 
12 Major Family A/C 1,114,219 
13 Windsor Hotel A/C 1,000,000 
14 Mr Ashok Verma  1,000,000 
15 Mr Thomas Brian Cannon 980,000 
16 Ms Allison Wilkinson 930,000 
17 Visser Super Fund A/C 890,000 
18 J J N A Pty Ltd 847,612 
19 Major Family S/F A/C 836,400 
20 PJ Nagle S/F A/C  824,000 
TOTAL 73,483,928 

Not sure if any of these holders belong to ASF or Hotcopper 

IMHO the sophisticated investors from the recent CR are all likely sellers
buy at .25 sell at .40 represents a 60% profit in less than a month

As at 2.00pm today just over 9 million ADI shares have been traded
Apart from AWE who would be buying at .40+ ?

We need a white knight HILCORP??
I am holding ADI and not selling


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## Sdajii

I bought in a few months ago just looking for a quite profit, but because I was holding I had a closer look, and I decided that rather than the original plan of selling out when things went nice I wanted to stay in - this thing is just too good. On the day I bought, I'd have expected that if I could sell out for 40c in May I'd be thrilled to do so, but now I wouldn't be happy being forced to sell at twice that. I'm glad to see the trading price has stayed above 40c today, and hope these opportunists get nothing.

Let's hope the holders understand what they have and choose to hang on to it rather than give in to the fear which could rob them of so much down the track. Good on the guys picking up shares for over 40c today, and mopping up what is being sold by the frightened, desperate or uninformed holders. I hope they choose to hang on to what they have.


----------



## bazollie

A very Opportunistic Offer which is not in the interests of the Long Term Holders of this stock. I have been holding and accumulating for a fair while and given the latest drilling results, gives AWE the chance to snare cheaply and then turn their 40 cents into a SP that could reach $1.50 given the Research recently from Hartleys. 

I for one will not be selling at this price. Look at the big picture, in 3-6 months time with some more good news, we will be kicking ourselves if we sell now!!

Not fair AWE , look after the long term holders and we can all get something out of this!!
All in IMHO and DYOR.

Regards
bazollie


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## rock86

I am confident they will not even get close to 90%, unless they come up with a much higher bid. But I am worried because I think that they will end up being the majority shareholder at over 50.1% which in any case is just as bad.


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## Kremmen

philly said:


> ADI has 147,271 380 shares on issue
> AWE needs 50.1% = 73,782,962 shares to gain a controlling stake
> As at 10.00am this morning AWE has 57,200,533
> [ ... ]
> As at 2.00pm today just over 9 million ADI shares have been traded
> Apart from AWE who would be buying at .40+ ?




I'm not sure the 50.1% is relevant to anything. AWE has an order on the board for 112,070,847 at 40c.

Also, all the ADI shares traded today have been between 40.5c and 42c, so those 9M+ shares have not gone to the AWE order. I think the answer to your question is obvious: Buying above 40c is by those who believe that AWE (or someone else) will offer more.

BTW, I'm surprised that takeovers have been pretty much ignored here. Did you guys really think we'd all be sitting here in 10 years time with ADI shares at $4 or whatever? If there's one thing I'd have bet on more than the success of the JVPs, it's that we'd be gobbled up by takeovers.


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## Simon29

Whilst it is disappointing, it's not entirely surprising. What happens to those of us who don't sell our shares if AWE get a controlling interest (50.1%+)? I know I won't be selling at anything near these prices.


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## potchip

I actually don't understand why people are buying above the 40c expecting higher bids for ADI, unless driven by defensive mechanism. You would think the best alternative for non-holders is actually to invest in the other JVP partners? If I was a holder, I would not sell.


----------



## gdaf

so, did anybody sell their shares today?

...................................................................................................................................


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## rock86

gdaf said:


> so, did anybody sell their shares today?
> 
> ...................................................................................................................................




at these prices, it's just a kick in the crotch to ADI holders, so no I definately did not and will not be selling at these prices.

Double it and a little, maybe then I would start thinking, and still then, there is still probably to much upside.

As a previous poster has asked, what will happen to us shareholders still holding if AWE get 50.1%


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## luap77

No, but wondering what happens if you don't sell your shares and just keep holding? Is there any scenario where you would lose out (as long as the sp remains above 40c)?


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## Sdajii

potchip said:


> I actually don't understand why people are buying above the 40c expecting higher bids for ADI, unless driven by defensive mechanism. You would think the best alternative for non-holders is actually to invest in the other JVP partners? If I was a holder, I would not sell.




You don't understand why? If someone says "This thing is so awesome I want to buy the whole lot for 40c" it is a very strong indication that it is actually worth more than 40c. We were all saying that ADI (and EKA, AUT) was severely undervalued for quite some time. Here is a good demonstration of someone demonstrating that by putting their large amount of money where their large mouth is. Very likely there will be plenty of people thinking "Wow, if I buy in now, the worst that I can do is sell out for 40c in early June!" and also, a lot of people thinking "Wow, if the first offer is 40c and they're making it at a time when people are in panic, at some point in the next six weeks it's sure to go higher". Let's face it, we have a 40c buffer for the next six weeks! If it goes up, great, if it goes down, well, it ain't going too far down! Talk about a low risk punt! 50-60c is easy to imagine seeing in the next six weeks, but 40c is an almost guaranteed minimum. I through in the last of my available funds at 41c at 4.10pm. Fingers crossed in six weeks I'll be choosing to hold while looking at a SP of around 50c+. If I manage to save a little more over the next month or two I may well be putting that in as well.

With the bulk of my funds in EKA, ADI and AUT, today was a very nice day! My main sadness is that I didn't have time to buy more before someone set the rocket off.

The cherry on the cake is that I have ADI in the tipping competition this month!


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## potchip

The question is why buy in ADI when
1. there's a minimum price (which can be a good thing)
2. there's a cost for the company to respond to the 'open bid'
3. there's a potential ceiling, as in how much the bidder is willing to go
4. uncertaining due to controlling stake threshold and implications


when other JVP partners EKA/AUT
1. free carried on the information ADI has to supply
2. still enjoys the same 'bluesky' scenario until a bidder shows up


----------



## Sdajii

potchip said:


> The question is why buy in ADI when
> 1. there's a minimum price (which can be a good thing)
> 2. there's a cost for the company to respond to the 'open bid'
> 3. there's a potential ceiling, as in how much the bidder is willing to go
> 4. uncertaining due to controlling stake threshold and implications
> 
> 
> when other JVP partners EKA/AUT
> 1. free carried on the information ADI has to supply
> 2. still enjoys the same 'bluesky' scenario until a bidder shows up




In the long term, sure, you might be right, you might not, it's hard to say. In the short term, buying in at 40.5-42c or so carries almost no risk. Either ADI goes up and you are laughing, or it goes down and you hit the 40c level. In the short term you basically can not lose. You have a guaranteed 40c stop loss until July, and the potential for all three companies to shoot up to well above their current positions.

If you want safety at the moment, ADI is offering a great deal courtesy of AWE. We could get positive news at any time, which will send the price up. In that case you can hold or sell as you see fit. If we get no news you're safe, and can either hold, or sell out at 40c for little to no loss - plenty of potential earnings with a big safety net. If you paid 20c for EKA today you might see it at 14c tomorrow, and it's a case of "too bad". I can see plenty of very obvious reasons to buy ADI at the moment, even if you don't particularly care about the company. Even without news, ADI could easily top 50c before July, and might have done it even without AWE's hostile attempt. They've already been close to 40c and the situation is better now than it was then. If it wasn't for the recent global panic they'd have been well over 40c by now, and let's face it, oil is a precious resource which isn't going to become worthless in a hurry, regardless of whatever economic hiccups we might see along the way.

If you are looking at the longer term, increasing your holdings now means AWE doesn't get what they want, and will consider a higher offer, which will push the SP up again. There's just so much to gain and with nothing to lose.

For me, the obvious thing is that you have a 40c safety net and a potential to hit 50-60c. Why would you not buy in the low 40s?


----------



## condog

Why would they offer??

Because they want to benefit from the future profit and unlocked value.

Its imo too cheap, but thats only an opinion. 

dont forget The Hartleys valuation at 45c which we all regarded as tooo conservative prior to Morgan results ???

Seems too cheap imo.  And for big holder it may trigger unwanted CGT.


----------



## Kremmen

potchip said:


> I actually don't understand why people are buying above the 40c expecting higher bids for ADI, unless driven by defensive mechanism. You would think the best alternative for non-holders is actually to invest in the other JVP partners? If I was a holder, I would not sell.




If a stock is going up, you want to be buying. If it's going down, you want to be selling. Something you wouldn't buy and wouldn't sell makes no sense at all to me. (... excepting issues of taxation and risk assessment, which are relevant to personal circumstances, not the overall worth of the stock.)

Is ADI worth buying? Sure. Are other JVPs better value? I believe so, as they are lagging behind ADI's big jump. If I'd been watching the market open, I might well have sold ADI and bought AUT.


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> so is awe chasing down the aut share next?
> 
> based on the valuations they offer for adi the current aut price is a steal..
> 
> minimum price 100 cents for aut..




Why not EKA even if the holding of EKA is only 12.5% (generally) whereas AUT and ADI has about equal stakes.
EKA rose by 25% as well today.
Who knows but you should be at moon after such a hard effort .
Good work


----------



## rider58

So what would have to happen for this stock to drop below the 40c mark before june, or is that impossible? 

Seems like this "stop loss" will only benifit us small investors as everyone will want to be buying in, essentially taking JVP out of a large porportion market share in a sense?

Happy holder, but being a newb unsure what it all means


----------



## megla

rock86 said:


> ... bought in at a 7c average ... was at least waiting for $1




My dollar cost ave is .65 - not selling until I at least break even... been holding for a long time.


----------



## Sdajii

megla said:


> My dollar cost ave is .65 - not selling until I at least break even... been holding for a long time.




I paid less than 20c for most of what I hold, but I see purchase price as irrelevant. What I see as relevant is what I can get now and what I can get later. What I can get later is a heck of a lot more than 40c. Even though my entry was much less than half yours, I would need to be offered substantially more than 65c to sell at this point.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I am awaiting the position on Adelphi for advice. I too bought under the 20c mark so 40c is a nice starting point offer IMHO. Of course I'm on the US market which acts differently to the ASX. This thing is spreading all over the internet via Wall Street like crazy today ! Exciting times for sure !

Does anyone know when we might see the updated "shareholders advice" from Adelphi ?


----------



## condog

Correct me if im wrong, but didnt ADI recently go to 38c pre-morgan results.

Then if thats the case and Rancho about to produce, why would 40c seem at all attractive?
With the Hartleys valuation admitting its low and upgrades likely in july form 45c, and now yesterday saying itsa buy at 50c according to Agent, how is 40c ok.

Its a low ball offer. And you must be very pesimistic about drilling condensate and gas to think you cant easily surpass that without a takeover.

Its crazy the board didnt immediately advise rejection.


----------



## Agentm

Miner said:


> Why not EKA even if the holding of EKA is only 12.5% (generally) whereas AUT and ADI has about equal stakes.
> EKA rose by 25% as well today.
> Who knows but you should be at moon after such a hard effort .
> Good work





eka had reached parity to adi in minutes..  aut is still way way off.. 100 cents should see it right..

piling into aut  right now miner..

no one is pleased with awe from what i can tell, but the valuation of it will drive the likes of aut into the correct price range over 100 cents in quick fashion

condog, the board imho will do so very quickly,  i expect a reply from them in the coming weeks myself

the offer is set for months from now, and there is plenty of upside to adi as results come through..

i am not privy to the awe boards knowledge of adi myself, whether they knew of the delays of rancho grande.. but imho they have certainly timed the run right when no results are coming through, pre the re evaluation of adi, and pre adi being able to present their reserve estimates..

pretty ruthless work by awe, if you into their share its going to be high fives and smiles all round, but there is no doubt the awe board have woken up to how good the eagleford is and crashed the adi party..  so no reserve estimates releases to impede higher valuations for adi..

i would hope the reply by adi would put out as much as they can on reserve estimates as soon as possible and perhaps prove to the shareholders and market alike that the .40 price is way off the mark..

the shirts ore off now imho.. time for major holders, indeed all holders to hang tight and perhaps allow adi some opportunity to place some realistic valuations on the table

lets hope for some better days on that front.. 

i was always hoping for and aut-adi merge.. that would have made for a better strategy for awe to hang back and later on strike on the bigger stake in the eagleford..

imho awe lost the plot there, poor judgement and shocking tactics.. as now for it to get into aut will take more  effort, surely its not going to be satisfied with a mere 10% of the eagleford?


----------



## Bigukraine

condog said:


> Correct me if im wrong, but didnt ADI recently go to 38c pre-morgan results.
> 
> Then if thats the case and Rancho about to produce, why would 40c seem at all attractive?
> With the Hartleys valuation admitting its low and upgrades likely in july form 45c, and now yesterday saying itsa buy at 50c according to Agent, how is 40c ok.
> 
> Its a low ball offer. And you must be very pesimistic about drilling condensate and gas to think you cant easily surpass that without a takeover.
> 
> Its crazy the board didnt immediately advise rejection.




could be a great way to get your mkt cap up no cap raising ,no fees and the take over attempt and the trading over the .40c mark = risk free way for all parties involed to achive this. Would make things easier to borrow money to accelerate program and or untill monies come through from sales of product.....


----------



## rock86

if the ADI board was serious about the potential of this company, then they would have a reply this morning, which would read pretty much along the lines as "low ball crappy offer, put it where the sun don't shine AWE"


----------



## cicak_kupang

In the pasti have been anoyed by ADI management for what seemed to me as lack of sugarcane promotion, the way the reporting of things was done.  In hind sight, management was doing the right thing, it was had for me to see it at the time.  ADI  management have had investors best interest at heart before and im sure that will be the case this time. (recent cap raise pixxed a few off, but the way they did it was the  quickest way to raise funds without all the  time delays that going to the public investors would have involved.
 They are very well calculaed and worded announcements by ADI, always have been.
Some may see differently, thats fine.  But im happily to have ADI management on my side of this ball game....


----------



## Kremmen

Agentm said:


> i was always hoping for and aut-adi merge.. that would have made for a better strategy for awe to hang back and later on strike on the bigger stake in the eagleford.




Interesting idea. One I've thought about before, too.

I'm surprised nothing had happened until now, takeover-wise. I reckon if I were running one of the big players in the area and saw that puny Aussie contingent in the middle of everyone, I'd have been making a takeover offer long before now. Some of those guys could swallow EKA and ADI with ease. AUT's a little bigger.

Anyhow, I don't understand why anyone is criticising AWE. There's been discussion about how little known this play is and how little self-publicity some (esp. ADI) have done. Well, my thanks to AWE. Sure, it's a low-ball offer. So what? We don't like it, we don't sell. There's no downside. It's given us higher prices, higher volume and publicity. That is a massive favour to all of us holding any of ADI/EKA/AUT.


----------



## rock86

Kremmen said:


> Interesting idea. One I've thought about before, too.
> 
> I'm surprised nothing had happened until now, takeover-wise. I reckon if I were running one of the big players in the area and saw that puny Aussie contingent in the middle of everyone, I'd have been making a takeover offer long before now. Some of those guys could swallow EKA and ADI with ease. AUT's a little bigger.
> 
> Anyhow, I don't understand why anyone is criticising AWE. There's been discussion about how little known this play is and how little self-publicity some (esp. ADI) have done. Well, my thanks to AWE. Sure, it's a low-ball offer. So what? We don't like it, we don't sell. There's no downside. It's given us higher prices, higher volume and publicity. That is a massive favour to all of us holding any of ADI/EKA/AUT.




I agree Kremmen, I'm holding till I feel a price is justified, whether it be takeover or just general market. Let's look at it this way, I am 99.9% confident that AWE will not obtain the 90% of shares which will then allow them to fully own the company. However I do think that they will probably obtain 50.1% to have majority ownership and voting power control.

Some people have said this will be a bad thing, I thought this at first but having thought about it, if they do obtain 50.1% they will run it how they want, bad thing, I don't think so. AWE along with people still holding ADI are still going to want the SP to head north, them taking control may not be such a bad thing as they will want to add value for themselves.

All IMHO


----------



## mick z

Kremmen said:


> Interesting idea. One I've thought about before, too.
> 
> I'm surprised nothing had happened until now, takeover-wise. I reckon if I were running one of the big players in the area and saw that puny Aussie contingent in the middle of everyone, I'd have been making a takeover offer long before now. Some of those guys could swallow EKA and ADI with ease. AUT's a little bigger.
> 
> Anyhow, I don't understand why anyone is criticising AWE. There's been discussion about how little known this play is and how little self-publicity some (esp. ADI) have done. Well, my thanks to AWE. Sure, it's a low-ball offer. So what? We don't like it, we don't sell. There's no downside. It's given us higher prices, higher volume and publicity. That is a massive favour to all of us holding any of ADI/EKA/AUT.




what about the poor buggers that bought above 40c.
dont they deserve some consideration kremmen, it wasnt long ago that the sp was 38c only a few weeks ago guess there happy to make a 2c premium.

self self self......give me a break


----------



## Ramblin Round

I don't foresee a lot of bleeding hearts of concern when millions of dollars are at stake. Some people view things as a good deal, some as a loss. That's the market, huh mick ?


----------



## estseon

Mick,

They're not going to get ADI for 40 cents a share, are they?

It's up to the ADI board to persuade Hilcorp to allow them to release information and projections and to make a good job of communicating the prospective value of the company to the market. But I somehow can't see AWE walking away - that would make them look soft and they must have had a good idea of what they might have to pay. I don't think that anyone is particularly pleased about this offer.


----------



## rock86

I wonder if we'll see a response from the board, there was an update from hartley's recommending only 50c price target (seen on HC from memory), and that's after Easley and Morgan Fair bit conservative, we should have our reserve upgrade soon also too, rancho out, all of this boosting our price target. 40c, or even the 41-41.5c SP atm, whoever's selling AWE has surely got what they want, alot of tree shaking.

How long does it take for the board to co-ordinate a response, I would hope there would be one today or definately before weeks end.


----------



## Agentm

rock86 said:


> I wonder if we'll see a response from the board, there was an update from hartley's recommending only 50c price target (seen on HC from memory), and that's after Easley and Morgan Fair bit conservative, we should have our reserve upgrade soon also too, rancho out, all of this boosting our price target. 40c, or even the 41-41.5c SP atm, whoever's selling AWE has surely got what they want, alot of tree shaking.
> 
> How long does it take for the board to co-ordinate a response, I would hope there would be one today or definately before weeks end.




rock, they have to do a lot of work in a very short period of time..

they will reply by late next week

i expect an interim reply

real rough calculations here.. excluding options etc..

AWE only have to gather up 113 mill shares to own the eagleford play and the yemen asset

paying .40 means they will spend $45 mill

ADI has around 10 mill in the bank

so $35 mill is what they spend 

so they are getting 100% ownership over 2300 acres for $19,723 if you add no value for the yemen asset what so ever

please correct this if i am miscalculating here


----------



## WRONG'UN

Hi Agent
Would you mind explaining the link between 2300 acres and $19,723 - sorry, I can't see what you've done. The rest is very clear. Thanks.


----------



## Sdajii

Looking at the announcement from ADI this morning confirms what I was suspecting when I bought yesterday. AWE's aggressive action is going to force ADI to promote itself and point out in clear terms what the future holds. This will generate interest and attention from brokers and advisors, and we should quickly see a price increase (starting immediately after the late May announcement and continuing into June in my opinion). ADI has no choice but to make their presentation, which will be out in less than two weeks, something very impressive (which shouldn't be difficult given their situation). The price can only go up from here - it's not going below 40c, I'm just sad it has happened before I had time to get some more capital together to throw in. As long as it is in the low 40s I'll be buying whatever I can afford, as I just can't see imagine it being under 45c by early June (a 10% profit in two weeks is nice) and I can easily see the offer being upped to 50-60c, or the share price getting there in response to ADI's action, even without a higher offer from AWE. With an unconditional buy at 40c and a position which is worth more than 40c, it seems crazy not to be buying in at anything in the vicinity of 40c! Seriously, we're _probably going to get a better offer, we know ADI is going to put out a very impressive "look how freaking awesome we are" announcement, and we virtually know that is going to push the price up, and the know there is a backstop of 40c! Crikey, talk about a low risk investment with high upside! If I was expecting to bring some capital in a bit sooner I'd be quietly hoping everyone would continue to miss this opportunity for a bit longer. As it is, the sooner people start buying, the more chance we have of a higher offer from AWE.

With most of my money in ADI and EKA at the moment, the tipping competition leaderboard is looking very pretty this month! _


----------



## prgudula

New announcement release at 19 May 2010 11:00 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100519/pdf/31qdsp3x73hrwv.pdf


----------



## Agentm

$35 mill divided by the acres adi have in sugarkane.. so exclude all acreages in yemen..(which is an 8.5% interest 60 - 70 km long and 20 km wide by my estimates)

$45 mill in 2300 acres is $19,565  per acre.. yemen is free and you have $10 mill in cash

so using the cash you keep in the deal its really only cost you $35 mill, which divided into 2300 acres of AMI acres in the sugarkane gets me $15,217 an acre of sugarkane, the chalks and the eagleford combined!!  and 8.5% of yemen is totally free

that gives you 6 free carried wells producing as a bonus.. so instant cashflow.. 

does that make my rough calculations  make sense? 

any corrections are welcomed..


----------



## Sdajii

I hope ADI gives out all the details, but I also hope that they put it into even simpler terms than you have there, Agentm, just to make it immediately clear to everyone, even the most stupid or time-strapped investor. Considering the wells already flowing, the cash on hand, and the potential, 40c is completely insane. I think the people concerned about not making their 65c back are going to be pretty happy pretty soon. I can't see movement taking long at all now.


----------



## AngusSmart

Question in regarding takeover..

if you just continue to hang onto your shares thru the takeover (if and when it happens) what happens? do you then own shares in awe? or hows it all work?

or is the best idea to sell out when you feel the price is right?

all good news! and i am glad this has also show value to AUT, i just hope Aut come in with an offer soon!!


----------



## rock86

AngusSmart said:


> Question in regarding takeover..
> 
> if you just continue to hang onto your shares thru the takeover (if and when it happens) what happens? do you then own shares in awe? or hows it all work?
> 
> or is the best idea to sell out when you feel the price is right?
> 
> all good news! and i am glad this has also show value to AUT, i just hope Aut come in with an offer soon!!




AWE can only force you to sell your shares if they gain 90% of ADI's shares, they are then able by law to purchase your shares (even if you don't want to) and de-list ADI. However this is very unlikely IMO, they may get close to the 50.1% majority but that's it, I think they'll be lucky to get there. We have to remember that AWE have gained no additional shares as yet as all trades have been above the 40c mark.

This statement released finally tells us that the BOD believe what us share holders believe this company is capable of. This announcement how I read it, the BOD think exactly the same as we do, this is a crappy low ball offer and the company is worth alot more then this figure.

I liked the bit to where they said how the market was trading above the 40c mark, indicating what everyone thinks of this offer.

Very good announcement, thanks BOD for finally restoring some faith in you. Can't wait for this Target Statement, I'm pretty sure it'll cement our view on how good the companies potential is.


----------



## Kremmen

rock86 said:


> I wonder if we'll see a response from the board




I bet part of their stalling is because of what turds they look for diluting our holdings by giving away a bunch of shares at 25c recently. If they are going to tell us how massively undervalued 40c/share is, it exposes their 25c capital raising as an appallingly bad move.


----------



## vincent191

AngusSmart said:


> or is the best idea to sell out when you feel the price is right?




Some people are calling AWE scumbags but if not for their t/o offer do you think ADI sp will be what it is now??

Of course AWE will start off with a low ball offer. They may increase the offer later, who knows. It is just like you buying a used car, you don't start at the top end.

Takeovers happen if someone sees and asset which is in their opinion is undervalued. You will only buy that used car if you think it is a good bargain. This is business.

If the BOD of ADI is so crash hot, how is it then their sp is languishing so far behind their true value? Whichever way you want to look at it ADI holders should be thankful that AWE came along.

I think it is best to trust your own judgement whether or when it is the right time to sell.


----------



## JOHAUD

Some exposure in the media could be useful

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article215241.ece:)


----------



## adobee

Sdajii said:


> Looking at the announcement from ADI this morning confirms what I was suspecting when I bought yesterday. AWE's aggressive action is going to force ADI to promote itself and point out in clear terms what the future holds. This will generate interest and attention from brokers and advisors, and we should quickly see a price increase (starting immediately after the late May announcement and continuing into June in my opinion). ADI has no choice but to make their presentation, which will be out in less than two weeks, something very impressive (which shouldn't be difficult given their situation). The price can only go up from here - it's not going below 40c, I'm just sad it has happened before I had time to get some more capital together to throw in. As long as it is in the low 40s I'll be buying whatever I can afford, as I just can't see imagine it being under 45c by early June (a 10% profit in two weeks is nice) and I can easily see the offer being upped to 50-60c, or the share price getting there in response to ADI's action, even without a higher offer from AWE. With an unconditional buy at 40c and a position which is worth more than 40c, it seems crazy not to be buying in at anything in the vicinity of 40c! Seriously, we're _probably going to get a better offer, we know ADI is going to put out a very impressive "look how freaking awesome we are" announcement, and we virtually know that is going to push the price up, and the know there is a backstop of 40c! Crikey, talk about a low risk investment with high upside! If I was expecting to bring some capital in a bit sooner I'd be quietly hoping everyone would continue to miss this opportunity for a bit longer. As it is, the sooner people start buying, the more chance we have of a higher offer from AWE.
> 
> With most of my money in ADI and EKA at the moment, the tipping competition leaderboard is looking very pretty this month! _



_

This is a interesting concept I am looking at too... If I buy substanially more shares now at say 40.5 to 42c I am guaranteed 40c stop loss .. Which means a big potential up side with minimal down side (on $100k I look to loose round $3,750) ? With this in mind the questions are -
Can AWE pull out there offer all together before specified dates ?
What is the time frames for AWE to make an increased offer if they do ? Would this usually happen before the first offer expires or after the first offer expires ? 
If Oil prices plumet overnight can AWE just pull out ?

There is the option of jumping into AUT which looks undervalued now but still there is no minimum price for them .._


----------



## Silhouetteau

Adobee,

You need to look at the 35 Page report AWE released when they announced the takeover, it details AWE's rights. From memory, I believe they have to right to extend  or cancel the deal when they choose.

Edit: Taken from page 12:
"Unless withdrawn, the Offers will be open during the period commencing at 10.00am Sydney
time on 1 June 2010 and ending at close of trading on ASX on:
(a) 9 July 2010; or
(b) any date to which the Offer is extended or as required by the Corporations Act.
AEL may extend the Offer Period in accordance with the Corporations Act."

There are a few references to the requirements of the Corporations Act which I don't fully understand.


----------



## 5haretrader

adobee said:


> This is a interesting concept I am looking at too... If I buy substanially more shares now at say 40.5 to 42c I am guaranteed 40c stop loss .. Which means a big potential up side with minimal down side




I too am also considering this as we could take advantage of a short term 'safety net' for want of better words. Ofcourse alot of whether I do this lies in how I feel about AWE maintaining their offer to the July 9 date. Even if people start chewing through AWE's bid at 40cents, it would take a fair effort to get all the way through and by then we'd all be screwed given the share-hand-over legislation. So really the only threat of a considerable loss is if AWE withdraw their bid entirely.

The only reason I can imagine for AWE to have a sudden change of heart is if the oil price plummets, as you say. Have AWE attempted a takeover in the past? If so, how did they conduct themselves during the process?


----------



## rock86

hey, we all know how crappy this offer is. However, let's give AWE some credit, very very smart business move, and they shook the tree big time. Even if they don't succeed they got free PR on a company they own 33% of, and they have increased their 33% holding by 46% in one day.


----------



## Sdajii

rock86 said:


> hey, we all know how crappy this offer is. However, let's give AWE some credit, very very smart business move, and they shook the tree big time. Even if they don't succeed they got free PR on a company they own 33% of, and they have increased their 33% holding by 46% in one day.




Sorry, I must have missed something. AWE increased their holding of 33% by 46%? So they now have 48%? Really? When? Huh?


----------



## Mactavish

Sdajii said:


> Sorry, I must have missed something. AWE increased their holding of 33% by 46%? So they now have 48%? Really? When? Huh?



I think he meant that AWE's stock value increased by 46%.... was thinking the same thing when i first read it..


----------



## jancha

Sdajii said:


> Sorry, I must have missed something. AWE increased their holding of 33% by 46%? So they now have 48%? Really? When? Huh?




When ADI had their CR raising AWE's 30% interest was taken up @ 25c a share (as well as the sophicated ones).
Wouldn't that have inceased their % holding in ADI?
Cheers on management on now asking the unsophicated ones not to sell @ 40c.
Where's ADI's managements care factor?


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> When ADI had their CR raising AWE's 30% interest was taken up @ 25c a share (as well as the sophicated ones).
> Wouldn't that have inceased their % holding in ADI?
> Cheers on management on now asking the unsophicated ones not to sell @ 40c.
> Where's ADI's managements care factor?




This is still a brilliant investment, but I have to agree with you and say that I'm not at all fond of the way the board have treated us.

I'm amazed that the share price still has not gone up. A safety net immediately below the current price and an obvious indication that the outlook is bright (AWE wouldn't be saying "WE WILL BUY THE WHOLE LOT RIGHT NOW" unless they had thoroughly done their research and knew they were getting a good deal. Some idiot investor like you or me might wast a few grand on a bad buy, but they're not going to put millions of dollars on the line without doing a lot of research and having a solid level of certainty. People are probably sitting around thinking "When the ADI board put out their statement it'll go up", but why wait until you've missed the boat? It could jump up at any time, and the safety net will stop it from going down.


----------



## prgudula

21/05/2010  	 Sugarloaf Operations Update  - ADI

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100521/pdf/31qg4mgy5sgbw7.pdf


----------



## nioka

Sdajii said:


> I'm amazed that the share price still has not gone up. A safety net immediately below the current price and an obvious indication that the outlook is bright (AWE wouldn't be saying "WE WILL BUY THE WHOLE LOT RIGHT NOW" unless they had thoroughly done their research and knew they were getting a good deal. Some idiot investor like you or me might wast a few grand on a bad buy, but they're not going to put millions of dollars on the line without doing a lot of research and having a solid level of certainty. People are probably sitting around thinking "When the ADI board put out their statement it'll go up", but why wait until you've missed the boat? It could jump up at any time, and the safety net will stop it from going down.




The reason ADI hasn't gone up is because there is still a profitable alternative option. The price of AUT and EKA allows an ADI holder to sell at near the 40c base and buy a proportionative interest in the Sugarloaf project at a cheaper price. The volume of trades in AUT and EKA show that this is happening. ADI is setting the base price at this stage. As their prices increase with more drilling and flow results so will the ADI SP. There is plenty of upside room left here in my opinion.


----------



## Sdajii

nioka said:


> The reason ADI hasn't gone up is because there is still a profitable alternative option. The price of AUT and EKA allows an ADI holder to sell at near the 40c base and buy a proportionative interest in the Sugarloaf project at a cheaper price. The volume of trades in AUT and EKA show that this is happening. ADI is setting the base price at this stage. As their prices increase with more drilling and flow results so will the ADI SP. There is plenty of upside room left here in my opinion.




I realise that's what people are thinking, but buying ADI seemed like a better idea. Perhaps today is different (and we're seeing that with a slight drop in ADI's SP). I bought ADI after the AWE offer, and it has held, while AUT and EKA have both dropped since then. In the short term it seemed like a safer option, and it looks like it turned out as I expected. Of course, the global collapse is a bit more extreme than most people anticipated. The last few weeks have been a lovely time to be in ADI (and/or the other two).

The severe market collapse might be enough to slow this rocket down for long enough for me to get some more fingers in. I'll have to get my tax return in early this year so I can get that in too.


----------



## 5haretrader

No doubt about it, the companies that are consolidated in the eagleford play have alot to gain from here on. The risilience of AUT/ADI/EKA to go against market trends (except AUT which has copped it a bit in the last few days due to short term profit takers) has shown how keen holders are to keep a share in the extremely big potential of the JV.


----------



## estseon

I don't suppose anyone has any bright ideas on how to stop the AUD depreciating against GBP?

On a more serious note, if it is reasonable to assume that the Target Statement is going to demonstrate a much higher fair value (if it doesn't, the directors should have recommended the bid), does anyone expect buying in anticipation? There are a maximum of 5 trading days before its release.


----------



## condog

estseon said:


> I don't suppose anyone has any bright ideas on how to stop the AUD depreciating against GBP?
> 
> On a more serious note, if it is reasonable to assume that the Target Statement is going to demonstrate a much higher fair value (if it doesn't, the directors should have recommended the bid), does anyone expect buying in anticipation? There are a maximum of 5 trading days before its release.




Yep easy

Come over hear and tell Kevin Rudd PM that hes got rocks in his head for implementing the Reasource Super Profits Tax the way he has. Hes created a soveriegn risk to all australian assets. Secondly get hold of the directors of the EUcentral bank and tell them to sort out greece, via a restructure, rather then a loan. Then kick them and others out of the EU with debts they can service..

Job will be done, shouldnt be too dificult.

Hey but given the mess you guys are in in the UK i cant see the pound being too strong against the aussie in the future. We are a powerhouse, sorry, but you guys are an economic joke. Fair value will eventually shine thu. 

Ive worked with some poms esteon, they are the laziest people on earth. LOL


----------



## estseon

"Ive worked with some poms esteon, they are the laziest people on earth. LOL "

I don't really want to get into a slanging match over this but I am sure that you could find examples of any nationality that fit that description.


----------



## Lucky_Country

Umm sounds like condog has some grudges to get off his chest !!

I would much rather talk about the prospects of ADI than having a go at other posters for no reason what so ever.

Can understand why AgentM has a gutfull of being abused for voicing his very much appreciated posts !


----------



## jancha

Lucky_Country said:


> Umm sounds like condog has some grudges to get off his chest !!
> 
> I would much rather talk about the prospects of ADI than having a go at other posters for no reason what so ever.
> 
> Can understand why AgentM has a gutfull of being abused for voicing his very much appreciated posts !




Hmmm Why bring that up?
Interesting tho that if this thread had not had the likes of Agentm's input it wouldn't be the informative thread as we know it imo.
Natives must be getting a bit restless on this report coming out.


----------



## condog

Jokes boys - sense of humour needed.

Not the bit abour rudd but the rest is jokes, sort of true, but tongue in cheek. obviously aimed at getting esteon going, but loooks like some others took it hook line and sinker.


----------



## Miner

estseon said:


> "Ive worked with some poms esteon, they are the laziest people on earth. LOL "
> 
> I don't really want to get into a slanging match over this but I am sure that you could find examples of any nationality that fit that description.




Interesting comments about lazy poms.

I fully agree. But even the lazy pomps defeated Oz cricketers in the world cup 20/20 final. So what could be worse than lazyness ? Don't know .


----------



## condog

Just kiddin

All my in laws are poms - i married into them. lol 

When you get the chance to rib a pom or a kiwi never miss it or they get in first. All the best esteon, i was kidding.

Back to ADI, hopefully they will put out thier rejection valuation in the next day or to with a really solid plan telling the market exactly what they value themselves at and why. That should be interesting.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I find it increasingly frustrating that the ADI board takes little to no interest in hyping up their position in the Eagle Ford shale play. Actually, I might even go as far as telling Alex Forcke myself that ADI needs to have a larger presence in Texas.

Here in DeWitt county we have billboards going up of people wanting to buy our leases and mineral rights, oil and gas company billboards, etc. This morning Petrohawk had a 2 hour presentation about their present and future plans of harvesting the Eagle Ford. If ADI has *any *interest in having a presence in this play then why don't they make it known what is available to raise capital for themselves ? I am starting to wonder myself if the ADI board aren't just out to get themselves rich. I've been telling everyone that will listen about a small cap Australian penny stock in the middle of the Eagle Ford and people can't beleive it. I always get the same comments.........."Why doesn't anyone know about this ?" 

So....what's the deal ADI ?


----------



## barney

Ramblin Round said:


> I find it increasingly frustrating that the ADI board takes little to no interest in hyping up their position in the Eagle Ford shale play. Actually, I might even go as far as telling Alex Forcke myself that ADI needs to have a larger presence in Texas.
> 
> Here in DeWitt county we have billboards going up of people wanting to buy our leases and mineral rights, oil and gas company billboards, etc. This morning Petrohawk had a 2 hour presentation about their present and future plans of harvesting the Eagle Ford. If ADI has *any *interest in having a presence in this play then why don't they make it known what is available to raise capital for themselves ? I am starting to wonder myself if the ADI board aren't just out to get themselves rich. I've been telling everyone that will listen about a small cap Australian penny stock in the middle of the Eagle Ford and people can't beleive it. I always get the same comments.........."Why doesn't anyone know about this ?"
> 
> So....what's the deal ADI ?




Howdy Ramblin. Agree that sometimes the boys at ADI seem a little conservative with their verbal communication, but we have to remember they are only a junior partner, and "big brother" kind of dictates their position a bit. Probably a good time to reiterate the recent announcement from the board .........  Cheers.

Adelphi has appointed the following key advisors to assist in responding to the Offer: 
·         Hartleys Limited has been appointed as Corporate Advisor to Adelphi to take the lead role in advising Adelphi in responding to the unsolicited takeover offer from AWE;

·         Cochrane Lishman Carson Luscombe has been appointed to the role of Legal Advisor;

·         PriceWaterhouseCoopers Securities Ltd has been appointed to the role of Independent Expert; and

·         RISC Pty Ltd, an independent technical specialist, has been engaged to provide a technical valuation of Adelphi’s assets, in particular the Sugarloaf Project. 

Adelphi will respond to the Offer in its Target Statement which will analyse the proposal from AWE and provide a recommendation to shareholders. The Target Statement will include an Independent Expert’s Report and a Technical Report valuing Adelphi’s assets. The Independent Expert will provide shareholders with an independent view of whether the Offer is fair and reasonable. The Target Statement will be issued by no later than 31 May 2010.


----------



## Agentm

just east of the JVP  acreages (and the extended acreages of AUT longhorn and ipanema).. this little cluster of wells are in full swing with pioneer and conocophillips








and to the west of our acreages you can be certain there has been plenty of drilling activity by conoco for many years







these are pictures of the conocophillips rig in karnes county drilling the yanata cattle  well. the well is right next to the pioneer acreages to the west of our acreages and the rig has just finished the eskew junior well in live oak right on the border of the jvp acreages


----------



## adobee

[COLOR="DarkGreen" said:
			
		

> Adelphi has appointed the following key advisors to assist in responding to the Offer:
> ·         Hartleys Limited has been appointed as Corporate Advisor to Adelphi to take the lead role in advising Adelphi in responding to the unsolicited takeover offer from AWE;
> 
> ·         Cochrane Lishman Carson Luscombe has been appointed to the role of Legal Advisor;
> 
> ·         PriceWaterhouseCoopers Securities Ltd has been appointed to the role of Independent Expert; and
> 
> ·         RISC Pty Ltd, an independent technical specialist, has been engaged to provide a technical valuation of Adelphi’s assets, in particular the Sugarloaf Project.
> 
> Adelphi will respond to the Offer in its Target Statement which will analyse the proposal from AWE and provide a recommendation to shareholders. The Target Statement will include an Independent Expert’s Report and a Technical Report valuing Adelphi’s assets. The Independent Expert will provide shareholders with an independent view of whether the Offer is fair and reasonable. The Target Statement will be issued by no later than 31 May 2010.[/COLOR]





I read this in the announcement and thought that if they dont increase the bid we will have wasted all our cap raising on paying these damb consultants.. i know how much pwc etc cost and its not cheap.. Awe should have to pay these fees.. The fact that we are paying all these consultants and not just flat out rejecting the offer makes me think the board may be inclinced to do something with AWE ..


----------



## rock86

adobee said:


> I read this in the announcement and thought that if they dont increase the bid we will have wasted all our cap raising on paying these damb consultants.. i know how much pwc etc cost and its not cheap.. Awe should have to pay these fees.. The fact that we are paying all these consultants and not just flat out rejecting the offer makes me think the board may be inclinced to do something with AWE ..




Maybe the "something" with AWE was just this, raise attention to the market through a low ball offer, free publicity, increased SP in an instance, then the target statement shows the market how valuable Eagleford is and the potential of this company, and for any company with interest in the Eagleford.

Just a different look at things, but it is possible, as it is in AWE's best interest also (if they don't takeover) if ADI receives publicity, a proper (higher) valuation, and reports that show the potential (including the SP) of ADI. 33% of a $1 company is worth more then 33% of a 40c company.


----------



## philly

rock86 said:


> Maybe the "something" with AWE was just this, raise attention to the market through a low ball offer, free publicity, increased SP in an instance, then the target statement shows the market how valuable Eagleford is and the potential of this company, and for any company with interest in the Eagleford.
> 
> Just a different look at things, but it is possible, as it is in AWE's best interest also (if they don't takeover) if ADI receives publicity, a proper (higher) valuation, and reports that show the potential (including the SP) of ADI. 33% of a $1 company is worth more then 33% of a 40c company.




OMG rock86 I had the same thoughts about AWE'S motives. I always like the old conspiracy theory. If I had 33% of the shares and thought the SP was undervalued I would do something to increase outside interest and if in the meantime I was able to pick up some more cheap shares then I would be very pleased.  
AWE is a big player and if it takes over ADI to get a 10% interest in Sugarloaf then IMO AWE may well target AUT & EKA to increase its stake in what we holders all know is a first class play.
All IMHO and DYOR
I hold ADI & AUT


----------



## Ramblin Round

Rock, your theory is definitely a delightful stretch of the imagination that's for sure. I do not know the ADI board well enough to give them that much credit....yet. But I can appreciate that theory as good forward thinking.

I do say that it all could have been a great flag to gather investment attention, but that still doesn't explain the trading options by key shareholders at .25 prior to the current event. 5.5 mill for what ? Auditors and analysists ? To review a lowball offer ?

I also think it is unreasonable to expect AWE to carry the expense of analyzing an offer to purchase ADI _for_ ADI. That's just silly. They [AWE] obviously researched before they offered. What ADI does now is their own business decision, and therefore must research the offer for themselves.

Truth be known I hope we all profit from whatever the outcome is. This play is larger than most people here can fathhom and I'm glad to be in it. Perhaps  ADI _is _being supressed purposely by someone for reasons we penny stock peons are not priviledged to. Some people will get rich. Others will get very rich. And then choice few others will get very very rich.


----------



## AngusSmart

i have some book today at home, Bidders statement dated 17th may however... its from awe by the brief look of things, seems to be about them telling me to sell them my shares..

fat chance!!

i guess most people will receive this in the mail today also.


----------



## Sdajii

This is empty speculation, and possibly completely insane, akin to crop circle alien beliefs etc, but is there a chance that someone from AWE could be saying to someone from ADI "Get yourselves hideously undervalued, we'll buy you out for nothing, then under the table give you a big fat chunk of what we buy, and we'll both be utterly disturbingly wealthy"?


----------



## Ramblin Round

That's very far fetched. Although the relationships between oil and gas companies are all fat cat relations, especially here in Texas. One day they hate each other with mudslinging to the death and then the next they top lease each other and throw profit parties together. Almost as bad as lawyers I say.  


The crossover between company executives with ADI has always been curious to me, but I can't put my finger on what it means other than small caps starting other smaller caps. It happens all the time on a larger scale here. Rich getting richer by hiring themselves or their friends.


----------



## Ramblin Round

June the 4th ?????????????????    



http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...ion of Time to Despatch Targets Statement.pdf



You've got to be bloody kidding me. They can't release an advisory position on a lowball offer by this week ?? No statement until June 4th ? Oh, but don't take any action either holders. Just like last time.

Seriously ? Why does the ASX get to know but shareholders do not ? I'm in the states here so it may work differently for ya'll down under. Can anyone make sense of this ?


ADI had better hustle and quick. The competition has already made their position VERY well known, yet ADI is slow to respond. ADI better get on with it. That's just some good ol' Texan advice.


----------



## Agentm

whats your issue rambling..??  are you keen to sell?

just put your shares on sell today..

imho your getting .40 today quicker than if the share was trading right now..

june 4 is just a reply date.. there is much more work to be done after that

anyone wanting in gets more chances..

i am with the buyers atm.. brilliant value right now is adi..  imho it wont go for .40 in any way.. so dead set certainty for a upside win..

moan all you like rambling,,,  go ADI!!

think i will add a lot more now myself


----------



## condog

I tend to agree Agent

Wont sy it wont go for 40c, but geeze id be surprised if it did.

Right now its pretty easy decisions for all involved.

If ya scared, sell, take ya 41c and take advantage of AUT / EKA on the splits.

If ya think its going higher, buy or hold.

If ya dont know, seek advice. Or take a 50/50 hedge or some other hedge that suits your position.

Its a bad move by managment to blow so much cash to say no. It wont suit a yes or a no response. AWE want them cause they are cheap and loaded with cash. If thye blow the cash on defence, they make the offer less attractive and they ruin post offer performance somewhat. 

Dumb dumb dumb move by ADI managment.  1 response penciled in a day or two would have been adequate to back the board gut feeling. If ADI mgmt think ADI is only worth 40c then thats a strong sell signal based on poor or "other" managment.

A buy strategy will prove brilliant if offer is raised, dangerous if offer  is pulled.

Make your own decisions based on your research, limit risk, seek advice.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I'm still in it to hold, but you guys have to understand my frustration stateside. I'm holding a NASDAQ pink sheet stock which trades much more infrequent here stateside. What you guys hold trades solidly and much more frequently on the ASX. 

My intent is to hold, and hold indefinitely for the long haul. But my risk is even more that maybe I can't sell on the open market when the time comes. But again that's my business and mine to weigh out. No problems here mates. Only been trading for 4 months and here I am in the middle of an attempted agressive takeover such the likes that you read about but rarely see enacted. 

I did have an opportunity to read the AWE bidders statement in its entirity and I'll say it is very flawed in its positioning in regards to the ADI projects. How can a company mudsling on ADI when they purchased and supported the same ADI at 33% holdings ? The AWE reasoning in their statement is silly and smoke and mirrors. Quite frankly I'm insulted as an investor for them thinking that I'm that dumb as to be pursuaded by a 30 page document on their reasons why I should sell so cheap !

I _*do*_ see what ADI is accomplishing with these wells and I _*do*_ see that they are producing with great success. ADI has been derisked here IMHO as I have stated before yet AWE wants us to believe it is too risky to hold ? Wrong wrong wrong !

I guess I keep checking for movement in price, movement from ADI directors, and I get neither from neither. That's what I'm hungry for.......... some action I guess. Plus you guys down under talking on the internet all night and I'm sitting here all day talking to myself while you're still sleeping.


----------



## rock86

how I read today's announcement, it will be released on the ASX on or before 31st May for all Investors to read, and be sent to shareholders by at least the 4th June


----------



## estseon

Ramblin

They have to go through the motions.

All in my opinion but I view the AWE offer as a trigger to start the ball rolling.

Even if AWE does not have operations information that has not been released to the public, the suspicion will be that they do.

If they pitched in with a higher bid, before ADI had a chance to issue its defence document, and if they managed to secure some shares before the release of that document, sellers might complain that AWE exploited that additional knowledge or suspected additional knowledge.

Remember that they will have received a briefing in relation to the recent placing.

So, they have pitched in below the Hartleys short-term price target. I don't see how anybody could complain at them exploiting insider information doing that.

By my theory, AWE are playing this clean. The real offer should follow ADI's defence document, its "Target Statement".

There are rules and procedures that they are obliged to follow.

But it's all guesswork.

The ADI time extension seems to be for bulk printing and distribution by snailmail. They are working to quite a tight timing and they might have the complication of clearing things through Hilcorp, which adds a time zone factor.


----------



## lemontree

rock86 said:


> how I read today's announcement, it will be released on the ASX on or before 31st May for all Investors to read, and be sent to shareholders by at least the 4th June




I thought the announcement meant they were going to release a target statement on the 31st and the paper work will be sent to share holders on or before the 4th.


----------



## adobee

wow trading at 42c today ... people are really keen ..
cant wait to see what happens with this ?  I cant buy at this price though .. taking another look at AUT .


----------



## rock86

so Rancho frac started 17th May, it's now the 28th. Frac should pretty much be complete. Anyone heard anything??

Am expecting an announcement on Monday about it, funnily enough on the same day as the target statement being released


----------



## Agentm

i may ask a few people i know in texas on the weekend..

its been 11 days, it took morgan 11 days.. commenced 16th and finished on the 27th..   6 days later on the 5th may the flow rates were disclosed

5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or *31 mmscfe/d*.


i know morgan was a smaller frac with only 4400 feet done.. if rancho is a longer frac completion then add a few more days.. late next weeks looks like the timing..  but things may be longer than that..


----------



## Tordilla Kid

Well, I got my "notice of appraised value" from the Karnes County Appraisal District today, and I must say that I'm much amazed that "total market value" dropped by 15%!  New revenue sources?  Likely. Duh!

Our Texas governor (Rick Perry) the one that put the "goober" in gubernatorial.  Just had to get that one in.  Sorry.     

My wildlife/ag value is flat, but taxes on a home or business in Karnes County likely dropped significantly (e.g 15%).  Very conservative group here, but down 15% is really something. Positive business environment.    

Then there's the minerals.  Karnes County taxes on my very waning 1990's production very conventional oil wells a bit more than doubled tax wise.  Go figure.  They had just about gone to nil tax wise, so I'm not sure if there's any broader application to future production.  My hunch is probably ubetcha.

The Falls City High School "Beavers/Beaverettes" may have to decide between swim, ice hockey, rugby, la cross or some other expensive esoteric sports team.  Maybe they'll quite putting those blue and white banners on my gate?

I suspect ADI holders are gonna make mucho dinero, regardless.  YeeHaaw!

As for AgentM, women want him, men want to BE him and he makes really pretty worthless maps .  Well he does give some worthwhile insight.  Give him that.

I personally appreciate the Yanks and Aussies that sacrificed their lives for freedom this Memorial Day Weekend.  Can't say enough about that.  I'm thinking just now about mine.  

Have a great Memorial Day weekend!

TK


----------



## Ramblin Round

Oh yeah TK I'm feelin you on that one. Dewitt Co. wised up quick and hit us here too. 

Would you mind checking your private messages here and get back with me ? Thanks.

lol@the maps

They still used that Hawkville map in the Petrohawk analysts day presentation too. Made me lol when I saw it again.


----------



## lemontree

Was hoping for the target statement today, but alas it has not yet been released.

I did however notice this massive offloading of ADI shares just now. With such a large quantity i would guess it's not an individual, anyone have any thoughts on this?

01:49:58 PM	0.410	548,399	224,843.59	XT


----------



## Agentm

lemontree said:


> Was hoping for the target statement today, but alas it has not yet been released.
> 
> I did however notice this massive offloading of ADI shares just now. With such a large quantity i would guess it's not an individual, anyone have any thoughts on this?
> 
> 01:49:58 PM	0.410	548,399	224,843.59	XT




just a trade lemontree

plenty of holders have 500k units

news will be out after close.. no one is in any hurry,, why rush?


----------



## 5haretrader

Report is out. Advice is to REJECT the offer. Valued as a 'best estimate of 61cents' with a low of 21cents and a high of $1.10. How do we feel, I wouldve thought 80cents as a best estimate but who knows.


----------



## Kremmen

The report looks good. A 107-page document with a great deal of information in one place.

Independent analysis ranges from 22-110c, with a preferred value of 61c.


----------



## jancha

5haretrader said:


> Report is out. Advice is to REJECT the offer. Valued as a 'best estimate of 61cents' with a low of 21cents and a high of $1.10. How do we feel, I wouldve thought 80cents as a best estimate but who knows.




They'd be fairly conservative on that.
They also put a future upside on ADI with a lot of positives.
This is just the start imo.
Pity AWE hold 33% as the likelyhood of a third party entering would be remote.
I hope down the track ADI's management look after the average share holder when they have another capital raising instead of limiting it to to likes of AWE.
After all if we the public share holders did sell to AWE where would their jobs be?


----------



## AG1979

To throw a hypothetical out there (unfounded i might add), AUT see the value so they throw in a script offer around 1.5 for 1 ADI, that will test AWE's offer, if AUT see the value they just might do that, ADI holders get exposure which we all desire, AUT build there holding of the Sugarkane AMI, AWE make a load on the script and still have exposure, maybe make a go of AUT later, just an unfounded thought!


----------



## gerkin02

Aut havent got the cash or the reserves yet to borrow the cash.

What if adi fend off the takeover and merge with eka.

That could be a possibility?


----------



## kevro

AG1979 said:


> To throw a hypothetical out there (unfounded i might add), AUT see the value so they throw in a script offer around 1.5 for 1 ADI, that will test AWE's offer, if AUT see the value they just might do that, ADI holders get exposure which we all desire, AUT build there holding of the Sugarkane AMI, AWE make a load on the script and still have exposure, maybe make a go of AUT later, just an unfounded thought!




I like your line of thought there. All depends on the script price but I would be interested for one. We still would have our interest in the Sugarkane which I suspect most still want.

Kevro


----------



## rock86

on another note, we should be hearing Rancho results very soon. Let's hope it's a corker.

Oh another thing how in the report there were dry wells predicted the only way there will be a dry well is if Hilcorp stuff things up royaly (at present looks unlikely) or we either hit gold down there while drilling (not a bad upside though)


----------



## philly

jancha said:


> They'd be fairly conservative on that.
> They also put a future upside on ADI with a lot of positives.
> This is just the start imo.
> Pity AWE hold 33% as the likelyhood of a third party entering would be remote.
> I hope down the track ADI's management look after the average share holder when they have another capital raising instead of limiting it to to likes of AWE.
> After all if we the public share holders did sell to AWE where would their jobs be?




I have read bits and pieces of the report.
There is one aspect that I think is not mentioned in the report and will have a serious impact on the SP and that is what plans does Hilcorp have for ADI after the current 6 well program is completed. Is there any info out there about this?


----------



## zerolimit

so do we think they will make a higher offer or what?

whats the usual play for this kinda stuff? how have AEL done this before?


----------



## rock86

philly said:


> I have read bits and pieces of the report.
> There is one aspect that I think is not mentioned in the report and will have a serious impact on the SP and that is what plans does Hilcorp have for ADI after the current 6 well program is completed. Is there any info out there about this?




So true, well i'm guessing we will see at least another 4 wells in the AMI by years end. And giving the results I wouldn't be surprised if Hilcorp ramp things up. I think we will have to wait until AUT's Ipenama well is drilled to find out Hilcorp's plans. But IMO we will always have one drill rig (if not more) on the AMI from the second half of 2010


----------



## nioka

AG1979 said:


> To throw a hypothetical out there (unfounded i might add), AUT see the value so they throw in a script offer around 1.5 for 1 ADI, that will test AWE's offer, if AUT see the value they just might do that, ADI holders get exposure which we all desire, AUT build there holding of the Sugarkane AMI, AWE make a load on the script and still have exposure, maybe make a go of AUT later, just an unfounded thought!




That would make AWE a major shareholder in AUT and the directors of AUT may not be happy with that.

AUT would need to get value in the transaction by having better value for their additional acreage than is presently factored into the SP.

AUT would be better off doing a deal with EKA than with ADI given the current situation, 1 AUT for 4 EKA. ( I hold all three)


----------



## AG1979

Nioka, I was more thinking that a script offer from AUT for ADI might force AWE to move higher, as far as what is best we can only assume, EKA with AUT or ADI merge with EKA as a defensive move, either way it would be nice to see a higher offer from AWE straight away. You are completely right with AWE's major holding in ADI, it makes it less attractive as a target for any other buyer. (I hold both ADI & AUT)


----------



## 5haretrader

What are script offers? Its sounds like an artificial manipulation of the share price if AUT don't have the intent to go through with such an offer. However, having said that, that could be all that AWE is trying to get out of this smart little business ploy.


----------



## Kremmen

nioka said:


> AUT would be better off doing a deal with EKA than with ADI given the current situation, 1 AUT for 4 EKA. ( I hold all three)




I think 1 for 4 would be way more laughable than the offer for ADI at 40c. If all three are going up together, it's surely because of the joint venture. (ADI and AUT have additional value on the side, but it's longer term, especially for ADI.) EKA's share of the JV (per share) is greater than AUT's and almost as large as ADI's! (EKA only has 12.5%, but much fewer shares on issue too.) So, in a period in which ADI and AUT have risen over 20c, EKA should have risen close to 20c too. (Instead, it's risen about half that.)

1 for 2 would be more like it.
(I also hold all three.)


----------



## nioka

Kremmen said:


> I think 1 for 4 would be way more laughable than the offer for ADI at 40c. If all three are going up together, it's surely because of the joint venture. (ADI and AUT have additional value on the side, but it's longer term, especially for ADI.) EKA's share of the JV (per share) is greater than AUT's and almost as large as ADI's! (EKA only has 12.5%, but much fewer shares on issue too.) So, in a period in which ADI and AUT have risen over 20c, EKA should have risen close to 20c too. (Instead, it's risen about half that.)
> 
> 1 for 2 would be more like it.
> (I also hold all three.)




You have to look past the joint venture when comparing AUT and EKA. I'll settle for 1 for 4. The market also settles for around that figure. If you believe 1 for 2 then you should sell AUT and buy EKA now.


----------



## philly

zerolimit said:


> so do we think they will make a higher offer or what?
> 
> whats the usual play for this kinda stuff? how have AEL done this before?




To my knowledge this is the first time that AEL have engaged in a takeover bid. AEL is a subsidiary of AWE. When AEL was taken over by AWE the AEL board recommended the takeover so there were no plays as such.

IMO we have to wait for AEL to react to the ADI report. AEL can then increase their offer or put the takeover to bed.
In terms of when AEL will decide what to do I guess they are in no hurry and can wait until July when their current offer expires.
In the meantime the SP will have a fall back price of 40cents and if there is any + news from the fraccing program the SP could get a bit of a push along. If there was some good news and SP goes up then that may force AEL to decide sooner what it will do. ATM patience is required. All IMHO & DYOR


----------



## zerolimit

thanks philly

i have picked up a small parcel since with the .40c reasonable solid backstop i might make a quick dollar or two if they raise their offer.. if not sell at .40 and take a small loss

interesting to see what they say regarding the target statement


----------



## jancha

zerolimit said:


> thanks philly
> 
> i have picked up a small parcel since with the .40c reasonable solid backstop i might make a quick dollar or two if they raise their offer.. if not sell at .40 and take a small loss
> 
> interesting to see what they say regarding the target statement




You make it sound so simple.
What if they dropped their offer?
Where would ADI sp price be then?
It would be more than just a small loss however imo things are looking fairly rosy for ADI.
I cant see the sp going anywhere until July even with Rancho's results being on par with Morgan.
I dont think they have anything else in the pipeline other than that do they?
Just a waiting game until then.
Perhaps Agentm would have a better opinion on it.


----------



## barney

jancha said:


> You make it sound so simple.
> What if they dropped their offer?
> Where would ADI sp price be then?
> It would be more than just a small loss however imo things are looking fairly rosy for ADI.




Probably worth noting again for the punters in general:-

*The Corporations Act permits the withdrawal of unaccepted offers only in exceptional circumstances.*

Failing anything off the map happening, the offer will stand and run its course as submitted. Basically AEL can't do any backflips without incurring the wrath of the powers that be. So the SP has a firm base till July 9.  

Be nice to see a revised bid on market by friday July 2, which would prove these guys are serious. At the moment I'm still a little unsure of their true motives, but would not be surprised if the T/O offer is an attempt to "fish" out a bigger player. If our leases are as good as they are shaping up, Hilcorp looks the obvious candidate, but that is pure speculation ..... Could be a bit more subterfuge to play out before this gets sorted I think.


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> You make it sound so simple.
> What if they dropped their offer?
> Where would ADI sp price be then?
> It would be more than just a small loss however imo things are looking fairly rosy for ADI.
> I cant see the sp going anywhere until July even with Rancho's results being on par with Morgan.
> I dont think they have anything else in the pipeline other than that do they?
> Just a waiting game until then.
> Perhaps Agentm would have a better opinion on it.




Even without the offer, ADI probably wouldn't change much. They got into the high 30s even before the offer, and quite conceivably could have been over 40c now without it; we're in a better position now than then, and I think without the recent slump, ADI would be over 40c irrespective of a takeover offer (although it certainly wouldn't have outperformed the average market value to the same extent). The 40c offer might actually be holding the price down, with it standing as a psychological point of value, preventing the price from going much higher.


----------



## zerolimit

jancha said:


> You make it sound so simple.
> What if they dropped their offer?
> Where would ADI sp price be then?
> It would be more than just a small loss however imo things are looking fairly rosy for ADI.
> I cant see the sp going anywhere until July even with Rancho's results being on par with Morgan.
> I dont think they have anything else in the pipeline other than that do they?
> Just a waiting game until then.
> Perhaps Agentm would have a better opinion on it.




Well reasonable solid backstop of 0.40c means i don't think the offer will dissapear anytime soon, the risk is if the offer is pulled early but as barney said that they cannot just pull it tommorrow because they don't like the target statement etc AFAIK. DYOR.

So on that basis i believe the SP has a pretty good backstop of 0.40c while the offer stands, hence for the small loss.


----------



## philly

Between 17 May and today Goldman Sachs JBWere Holdings Pty Ltd have acquired 8, 545, 546 ADI shares. This is just over 5% of the issued shares.


----------



## 5haretrader

Is this a good thing philly? Goldman Sachs are a pretty established company so you would assume they know what theyre doing...or are they sneaking under the radar for a move at something?


----------



## Kremmen

This could be great news. If ADI is now on Goldman Sachs's radar, that's really getting into the big end of town. Maybe Goldman is positioning to make a counter-offer, or maybe they are planning to sell when a better offer comes along. Either way, they're not buying to make a loss.


----------



## jetblack

Yes, great development for ADI . The bid by AWE is soo bad that its good for ADI holders.  From a discussion with the MD just when ADI announced their CR it was mentioned then that they have the support of AWE.

Anyway, my point is out of all the jvp's imo ADI has been best positioned for the further development of the Sugar. They are cashed up and I believe this is where Hilcorp will focus majority  on first.  These wells are cash cows and believe this bid by AWE was to support ADI shareprice  (re, a GFC2 and in anticpation of Hilcorps speed) as there is in my mind a second cashed up player on the go.

Nothing like speculation eh!


----------



## Ramblin Round

> Be nice to see a revised bid on market by friday July 2, which would prove these guys are serious.





It would be very delicious to see a bid revision prior to the deadline and I do think that would seal the deal for AWE if it is at (or even near) the acceptable FMV. ADI has shown their hand on what they know they are worth, WHY they know they are worth it, and what they intend to do about it. The thing I have always wondered is what is the future of Australia exploration companies in a Texas play ? What was the thought process/exit strategy getting into this thing back in 2005 to begin with ? Obviously AWE wishes to be in the shale plays in Texas. They even discussed it in their recent presentations. 

It's like fishing now with the Target Statement out as the bait. Just sit back and wait who bites.


----------



## zerolimit

I feel this is good news that Goldman Sach's have bought in at 0.41 and a substantial amount of shares as well, i believe the second highest shareholder after AWE itself?

They must either belive that the offer will go higher and they are after a quick profit, or there is some other play at hand.

i might increase my holdings on this news... as it just strengthens my convinction that 0.40 offer is just the start!

i do hold ADI


----------



## WRONG'UN

If GS buy another 5% they will be able to block AWE's right to compulsorily acquire the last 10% of ADI - ie they would be in a position to force AWE to raise their bid if they want the company.


----------



## rock86

LMAO at the reply by AWE, do they think we are utterly stupid. Honestly, they try to back up the reasons they made in their offer statement, which were laughable. 

AWE need a reality check, and to smell that black gold coming from the wells. Everyone else can, and knows how much it is worth.


----------



## Hatchy

WRONG'UN said:


> If GS buy another 5% they will be able to block AWE's right to compulsorily acquire the last 10% of ADI - ie they would be in a position to force AWE to raise their bid if they want the company.




Very Smart thinking Wrongun. It's a cunning plan. 
I would imagine that the supporters of ADI would hold greater than 10% currently, but a large company taking up greater than the 10 would be a fairly solid stance against AWE. 

AWE's statement today really does think we're all stupid. 
I note the 3rd section that states that ADI will need to raise capital. How about everyone just step back and realise that cash flow is going to happen. Perhaps if Hilcorp gets aggressive and pushes for more wells soon there will need to be another raising, but i'm happy to see where the shares sit in 9 months and if ADI sits significantly higher than where they are now then capital raising will offer far less dilution than the cost of a well in 25c parcels. 

It really does frustrate me to see AWE try and buy back the companies it spins off at a price unreasonable and unfair. 

AWE must surely be joking.


----------



## WRONG'UN

The 9.5m odd shares bid for at 40.5 and 41.0 amount to about 5.6% of the company - just what GS needs.

AWE are making a lot of a perceived need for a CR, and not saying much about the revenue that will come on stream from the completed wells.
Critical to this, apart from the oil/gas price, is the cost of drilling a well (Hilcorp are getting this down - the independent report estimates $7m/well, but I have seen estimates of $5m from the Goodrich/Common Resources deal).
Also critical is the depletion rate - there should be some progress figures for Kennedy and Weston available any time. This will give three data points on the depletion curve, enabling the one year depletion rate to be extrapolated with more certainty. We have a one year estimate of 80% from ADI, but if it is 60%, for example, the effect would be hugely beneficial.


----------



## Sdajii

I found it very funny that they said the money in the bank wouldn't last until the end of the year! It would only last nine months, I think they said, before the money for new wells would run out...

Stupid indeed! They're only drilling wells because oil comes out of them, and that oil is sold for money! If they weren't profitable they wouldn't be drilled, and since they're producing money, we're going to be having income over that nine months, so in nine months when we've spent as much money as we now have, we'll have more money from the previous nine months of oil sales. It's so simple I'd feel insulting putting it in those terms to a five year old!

I'm sure more than 10% of holders have a similar attitude to mine (you can prize my ADI shares out of my cold, dead hands before I sell to AWE for 40c). I got my proposal from AWE in the mail the other day, I went as far as opening it, but it was in the rubbish within about 30 more seconds (largely because I'd already gone through it online, admittedly : )

Good news about GS. It's a message that ADI has solid value, they wouldn't be buying in if they didn't have good reason to believe it was a good move, and they've obviously done their research. A bidding war would be nice, but I'd rather be able to hold on for another year or two or three rather than take quick profits now.


----------



## rock86

sdajii, my AWE proposal got as far as halfway out of the envelope before it was rubbished. thought about going out side and p#ssing over it, but did the adult thing


----------



## zerolimit

AWE's statement today really is quite weak.

Look forward to a higher offer


i too saw those big order stacked up just above the 0.40

love it


----------



## happytown

Sdajii said:


> I found it very funny that they said the money in the bank wouldn't last until the end of the year! It would only last nine months, I think they said, before the money for new wells would run out...
> 
> Stupid indeed! They're only drilling wells because oil comes out of them, and that oil is sold for money! If they weren't profitable they wouldn't be drilled, and *since they're producing money, we're going to be having income over that nine months, so in nine months when we've spent as much money as we now have, we'll have more money from the previous nine months of oil sales*. It's so simple I'd feel insulting putting it in those terms to a five year old!
> 
> ...
> 
> Good news about GS. It's a message that ADI has solid value, they wouldn't be buying in if they didn't have good reason to believe it was a good move, and they've obviously done their research. A bidding war would be nice, but I'd rather be able to hold on for another year or two or three rather than take quick profits now.




ADI will not be making any money from sales from the wells until Hilcorp recoup costs

see for eg, ADI activities and fins for Mar qtr dated 23/04/10, p 4 ("Production/Forward Program")



> Following the completion of the three new farm-in wells, Adelphi will have an interest in six horizontal wells within the Sugarloaf AMI of which at least 5 are expected to be on production by mid 2010 across a large proportion of our lease area (refer illustrative map below).
> 
> Production revenue from these wells will accrue to Adephi following rescoupment of the farm-in costs incurred by Hilcorp which is expected by later this year.



or a week later in the Adelphi Investor Presentation dated 30/04/10, p 22 ("Adelphi Outlook")



> Cashflow to Adelphi expected Q4 2010 after farminee cost payout



and p 17 ("Sugarloaf Single Well Scoping Economics")



> Approx 6 months payback per well



The GS purchases are interesting from several perspectives

they have purchased just above the legal reporting requirement for subs holders, 5.05% (5% reporting threshold)

yesterday when there was more than 1,000,000 available at .415 they only picked up 168,000 approx, that 1,000,000+ sell has since been pulled

why didn't they pick up the 1,000,000+ yesterday (was it their sell order at .415 trying to squeeze out other sellers at .41, for GS to pick up)

why have they thus far only picked up the bare minimum for the reporting threshold

do AWE use GS for advisory/bookbuilding etc - are GS pimping for business

interesting times ahead

NB - shout out to AgentM for his work on this and one or two other threads


----------



## AngusSmart

Hey just a quick question regarding the above. where do you see orders on queue?

does comsec show this?


----------



## zerolimit

AngusSmart said:


> Hey just a quick question regarding the above. where do you see orders on queue?
> 
> does comsec show this?





I don't use commsec but on my broker you can have a look at market depth  and then market detail to see the individual orders and the size of each one


im sure commsec would have this


----------



## Agentm

wrongun

imho a new well will happen in the ami acreages, one that is not involved in the AMI farm in deal, so instant revenue @10% for adi.. i say that as i dont believe the jvp will let some critical acreages go.. so some real happy landowners are going to be pretty excited in only a matter of days really.. 

that will mean instant revenue to the jvp partners if the event takes place..

imho awe will want to think this plan through a little clearer.. 

lets see if this happens..

cheers


----------



## condog

40c is trash talk

i read the AWE staeemtn and in my opinion its underpricing ADI.

imo ADI should be 40c plus with or without the interest of AWE.

60c is in the ball park , but still forgets about CGT problems and future growth

75c would be fair imo, but i think 60c will get up come early july.

40c will only get up if holdrs are ill disciplined and lack unity.


----------



## WRONG'UN

Thanks for sharing that great idea, Agent - a catalyst to really set the cat amongst the pigeons if it happens!


----------



## Sdajii

Rock86: Hahahaha!    I should have thought about that! I was tempted to throw it into the fire, but the bin was closer.

happytown: Sure, Hillcorp needs to be payed back, but with oil constantly flowing to sales, they'll get their money, and once paid back, further revenue can be put into more wells. In nine months, even if they haven't fully paid Hillcorp back, they're going to be producing a nice amount of oil from multiple wells, and it won't take much longer. With that much oil being produced by that stage, it's hardly going to be difficult finding a line of credit if required - any lender will be able to see a clear method of paying it back, and by then there will be a good idea of the timeframe. Even if CR is required at that stage, it's presumable that it will be happening at greater 40c anyway, assuming this play is viable, and AWE can't possibly try to convince us that they don't believe it is a viable play if they are trying to buy it!

Fair comment though, happytown. Point taken.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I found the AWE rebuttal a bit interesting on the topic of the examples used. Share sales at .25 did indeed happen but should that be used to support a lower share price offer ? Stock options are offered all the time on the open market. What's the difference ? And again, how can they say ther is no cash for futures when clearly they are not recognizing the producing wells and near producing wells connected to the pipelines for sales ? How can you totally dismiss the sale of oil and gas as a future revenue source ? Fools.

The AWE response is greatly flawed. I expect another offer soon but probably not within the time frame. If AWE holds on to this crazy notion that there is not money to be made in ADI we might be in it for the long haul. I would hope that they are smarter than that. They need to get off their billionaire high horse if they want some action.


----------



## zerolimit

Ramblin Round said:


> I found the AWE rebuttal a bit interesting on the topic of the examples used. Share sales at .25 did indeed happen but should that be used to support a lower share price offer ? Stock options are offered all the time on the open market. What's the difference ? And again, how can they say ther is no cash for futures when clearly they are not recognizing the producing wells and near producing wells connected to the pipelines for sales ? How can you totally dismiss the sale of oil and gas as a future revenue source ? Fools.
> 
> The AWE response is greatly flawed. I expect another offer soon but probably not within the time frame. If AWE holds on to this crazy notion that there is not money to be made in ADI we might be in it for the long haul. I would hope that they are smarter than that. They need to get off their billionaire high horse if they want some action.





if they didn't believe there was money to be made they wouldn't be trying to buy everyone out, they are just trying to make it seem like there isn't THAT much value and the risks are higher so they don't pay top dollar.

I would be doing the same if i was them.


----------



## rock86

SUGARLOAF PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS UPDATE
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following update on production
and operations at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas &
Condensate Field, Texas.
Production Update
The recently completed Morgan #1H and Easley #1H wells have now been on production for
sufficient time to provide the following first 30 day production figures:
Total Gas Production(mmscf)  Total Condensate Production (bbls) Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate (mmscfe/d)*
Morgan #1H 109.4 38,500 19.97
Easley #1H 125.9 12,212 10.13
* The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for
condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced
gas.
These additional production figures continue to be very encouraging for the economics of
the field. Further production updates for these wells will be provided in quarterly reports
going forward.
Rancho Grande #1H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator that the multi-stage fracture stimulation operation
of the Rancho Grande #1H well has now been completed and the well is presently
unloading. A production update will be provided to the market once stabilised flow has
been achieved.
Kowalik #2H
Adelphi has been advised by the Operator that the Kowalik #1H well location will be twinned
with a new well, which is planned to spud in July 2010. This decision has been made in light of
the sub-optimal original well design for the now preferred completion activities and the
previously reported operational difficulties at the well. The Kowalik redrill will be the first of a
number of Sugarloaf wells to be drilled during this calendar year where all Joint Venture
partners will contribute to costs and derive revenue on a post farm out basis.
ASX listed participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Adelphi (ASX: ADI) – 10% (post farmout)
Aurora (ASX: AUT) – 10% (post farmout)
Eureka (ASX: EKA) – 6.25% (post farmout)


----------



## rock86

Wow, Morgan is a monster producing almost 1,300 BOCD.

Rancho finished, results will be next week I'm guessing.

Kowalik#2, now that brought a smile to my face. What also brought a big grin was the quote, 
"The Kowalik redrill will be the first of a number of Sugarloaf wells to be drilled during this calendar year where all Joint Venture partners will contribute to costs and derive revenue on a post farm out basis."

Lots more wells in the AMI by years end, bring it on.

AWE 40c, LMFAO hahahahahahah


----------



## zerolimit

rock86 or anyone

im not to ofay with the volumes and production amounts and whether they are good or not? the vibe from the release seems to indicate they are good?

will this help push our price up or what?


----------



## zerolimit

thanks for that rock86 we must have posted almost at the same time

sounds good 



i do hold adi


----------



## Agentm

rock86 said:


> Wow, Morgan is a monster producing almost 1,300 BOCD.
> 
> Rancho finished, results will be next week I'm guessing.
> 
> Kowalik#2, now that brought a smile to my face. What also brought a big grin was the quote,
> "The Kowalik redrill will be the first of a number of Sugarloaf wells to be drilled during this calendar year where all Joint Venture partners will contribute to costs and derive revenue on a post farm out basis."
> 
> Lots more wells in the AMI by years end, bring it on.
> 
> AWE 40c, LMFAO hahahahahahah





morgan was running state records on the biggest producing oil well, and as you know those numbers are averaged out over 30 days, the Ip flows were off the dial!!  


putting it into perspective.. the AZZ francis dilworth 2h well produced a total of *14612 bo over 90 days*, *morgan  did 38,500 in 30 days*.. so twice the 90 day flow rate of the other well in one month..

monster.. absolutely!!



can you see why AWE is putting in a bid for ADI at .40 and not chasing down the far bigger acreages that the AZZ region holds??  


kowalik 2 needed to be drilled, i am aware that locals in the ami were very certain that the hilcorp jvp would not want to drop the acres to other competitors, so the jvp imho are wise to keep the leases and are completing kowalik 2h now.  with that very nice flow rate on morgan, the wells are paying themselves off in the 90 day region..

kowalik 2H and morgan are going to be side by side in terms of how the sit on the trend..


my view is that without the awe offer,, the adi share would have been trading in the low to mid .30's by now with that morgan announcement.. and heading towards the near term .47 price target that harleys were talking about..

the drilling of kowalik 2  imho and the knowledge that the jvp are deciding to drill leases before expiry rather than let them go, and who wouldnt with the spectacular results thus far, makes it a very busy time in the very near future..

sure awe will be hopeful of a current bid being looked at, but imho the price is not going to be that attractive as the days roll by.. 

with that shocking response from awe yesterday, it almost was trying to say that adi would never achieve the current price on its own merits..   that will be a very tough one to get over later as i think there is momentum and weight to say adi would be mighty close to these bid prices on their own accord 

awe imho is saying you will be worse off without a bid.. well maybe a few cents worse off, but i think there is better upside in adi and personally i would like to see adi trade 6 months more and sell on market then..


----------



## rock86

Agentm said:


> morgan was running state records on the biggest producing oil well, and as you know those numbers are averaged out over 30 days, the Ip flows were off the dial!!
> 
> 
> putting it into perspective.. the AZZ francis dilworth 2h well produced a total of *14612 bo over 90 days*, *morgan  did 38,500 in 30 days*.. so twice the 90 day flow rate of the other well in one month..
> 
> monster.. absolutely!!
> 
> 
> 
> can you see why AWE is putting in a bid for ADI at .40 and not chasing down the far bigger acreages that the AZZ region holds??
> 
> 
> kowalik 2 needed to be drilled, i am aware that locals in the ami were very certain that the hilcorp jvp would not want to drop the acres to other competitors, so the jvp imho are wise to keep the leases and are completing kowalik 2h now.  with that very nice flow rate on morgan, the wells are paying themselves off in the 90 day region..
> 
> kowalik 2H and morgan are going to be side by side in terms of how the sit on the trend..
> 
> 
> my view is that without the awe offer,, the adi share would have been trading in the low to mid .30's by now with that morgan announcement.. and heading towards the near term .47 price target that harleys were talking about..
> 
> the drilling of kowalik 2  imho and the knowledge that the jvp are deciding to drill leases before expiry rather than let them go, and who wouldnt with the spectacular results thus far, makes it a very busy time in the very near future..
> 
> sure awe will be hopeful of a current bid being looked at, but imho the price is not going to be that attractive as the days roll by..
> 
> with that shocking response from awe yesterday, it almost was trying to say that adi would never achieve the current price on its own merits..   that will be a very tough one to get over later as i think there is momentum and weight to say adi would be mighty close to these bid prices on their own accord
> 
> awe imho is saying you will be worse off without a bid.. well maybe a few cents worse off, but i think there is better upside in adi and personally i would like to see adi trade 6 months more and sell on market then..




Hey Agent, once we have stabalised Rancho flow rates will we (if Rancho results are positive as I'm expecting) get a reserve upgrade do you think?

Just as a note i because in the target statement, our current fair market value will increase with reserve upgrades as well as an accelerated drilling program as I read it.

61c with most probably a new well each month, I'd be more inclined to say our fair market value by years end will be at the top half of the value in the target statement.


----------



## philly

rock86 said:


> Wow, Morgan is a monster producing almost 1,300 BOCD.
> 
> Rancho finished, results will be next week I'm guessing.
> 
> Kowalik#2, now that brought a smile to my face. What also brought a big grin was the quote,
> "The Kowalik redrill will be the first of a number of Sugarloaf wells to be drilled during this calendar year where all Joint Venture partners will contribute to costs and derive revenue on a post farm out basis."
> 
> Lots more wells in the AMI by years end, bring it on.
> 
> AWE 40c, LMFAO hahahahahahah




Hi rock86 
I and others agree with you yet the SP remains static on volumes of just over 1.2m.

I would have thought that the release this morning would have had an immediate impact on the SP especially given that for the first time there are definite plans to drill more wells this year.
Any thoughts?


----------



## rock86

philly said:


> Hi rock86
> I and others agree with you yet the SP remains static on volumes of just over 1.2m.
> 
> I would have thought that the release this morning would have had an immediate impact on the SP especially given that for the first time there are definite plans to drill more wells this year.
> Any thoughts?




Hey philly, I'm surprised as you. This takeover is holdiing things down at the moment as people are keeping their cards close to their chest to see how things pan out. IMO i'm with agent, we would pretty much be at this price now even without the takeover, and once Rancho results come in we would have been past it. ATM i'd say we're stuck around here for a bit.

However this accelerated drilling program commencing in July is going to add value to the SP, and quick as they will all be post farm out (income earning straight away). 61c fair market value after july, please


----------



## Sdajii

philly said:


> Hi rock86
> I and others agree with you yet the SP remains static on volumes of just over 1.2m.
> 
> I would have thought that the release this morning would have had an immediate impact on the SP especially given that for the first time there are definite plans to drill more wells this year.
> Any thoughts?




I am pretty sure the 40c offer by AWE is acting as a psychological benchmark which is keeping the price down now. Taking the offer away at this point may actually cause the price to go up. AUT hit 87c and looks set to go further, I'd say sooner or later ADI is going to move above the 40c area, and once it unsticks it'll probably have a bit of a run.


----------



## Ramblin Round

I'll chime in to say this:  This multistage frac process is long term for sure. After the water pipeline is set, operators are re-inventing ways to recycle frac water to reduce water consumption by way of hydro recycling plants along the pipeline. That's the plan anyway. This is no small time project.........these are long term rewards here. Fracs will be revisited in multiple stages in decades to come thus furthur providing stimulated production for sales.


----------



## Dink

announcement out...

Rancho Grande Initial Production Rate
The Rancho Grande #1H well commenced flow back on 1st June 2010 and has been flowing on a reduced choke setting. The maximum production rate over a consecutive 24 hour period has been:-

Rancho Grande #1H
Gas Production Rate 3.19 (mmscf/d)
Condensate Production Rate 1170 (bbls/d)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate 18.00 (mmscfe/d)*

* The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.

The intent of producing the well on a reduced choke setting is to investigate whether a limited reservoir drawdown can improve decline rates and the ultimate recovery from the wells. It should be understood that the well is capable of flowing at a higher rate, but this investigation is part of the ongoing efforts to optimise the commerciality of the field. In addition, the following comments should be considered:-
•	This is an initial production rate that has been observed during clean up and as such is not yet indicative of a short or long term production profile.
•	The well still has considerable fluid to recover from the fracture stimulation. 
•	The well is currently producing through the production casing. A production tubing string
will be installed in due course.


----------



## lemontree

Dink said:


> announcement out...
> 
> Rancho Grande Initial Production Rate
> The Rancho Grande #1H well commenced flow back on 1st June 2010 and has been flowing on a reduced choke setting. The maximum production rate over a consecutive 24 hour period has been:-
> 
> Rancho Grande #1H
> Gas Production Rate 3.19 (mmscf/d)
> Condensate Production Rate 1170 (bbls/d)
> Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate 18.00 (mmscfe/d)*
> 
> * The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.
> 
> The intent of producing the well on a reduced choke setting is to investigate whether a limited reservoir drawdown can improve decline rates and the ultimate recovery from the wells. It should be understood that the well is capable of flowing at a higher rate, but this investigation is part of the ongoing efforts to optimise the commerciality of the field. In addition, the following comments should be considered:-
> •	This is an initial production rate that has been observed during clean up and as such is not yet indicative of a short or long term production profile.
> •	The well still has considerable fluid to recover from the fracture stimulation.
> •	The well is currently producing through the production casing. A production tubing string
> will be installed in due course.




We're seeing some good results, but i don't think this news will be enough to keep the JVPs from going into the red today. Fear is contagious! Conversely this could be a good time to buy in.


----------



## Agentm

petrohawk have conducted similar experiments with wells in their acreages.

you compare to declines over 12 months or more and assess the best completion method with your wells. 

early days on these wells and various types of completions have been initiated by different operators.

i will be watching the decline on rancho with interest myself over the coming months

eog news is pretty grim with the  DEP Ordering EOG Resources to halt all Natural gas drilling in Pennsylvania.. serious blow out in the shale there


----------



## estseon

367 bbls per 1mm cfg looks pretty good. Kowalik 1 started delivering at about that rate. Looking good for Kowalik 2.


----------



## Agentm

estseon said:


> 367 bbls per 1mm cfg looks pretty good. Kowalik 1 started delivering at about that rate. Looking good for Kowalik 2.




awe will find some huge negative spin on that announcement and tell you all its useless and the best value you will ever achieve it their garbage offer..

the spiel that its fairer and more compelling to sell to them at .40 in light of the facts we see about the sugarkane is laughable.

let me guess, the next announcement will tell us they are doing us a huge favour in offering this measly .40 bid and no doubt it would be far fairer that awe makes takes on the burden of the play rather than the long term adi holders..

lol


----------



## WRONG'UN

Agent, I have not seen any ASX updates on Kennedy #1H (2200' lateral) and Weston #1H since 25 March 2010, which reported the 30 day flow rates - 60 and 90day rates should now be available. Do you know of any other sources , ie should I be looking elsewhere, or are they obliged to report to the ASX? Decline rates are vital information.


----------



## Agentm

Adelphi Managing Director Chris Hodge commented:

“This successful flow rate, together with the recently announced 30 day production rates from the Morgan and Easley wells, further demonstrates strong production results being consistently achieved across our Sugarloaf acreage - particularly from the more recent optimally drilled and fracture stimulated wells.

With each well result our lease holding continues to be de-risked. This process was recently quantified in the Independent Expert’s Report contained in Adelphi’s Target Statement, where approximately 18%* of Adelphi’s overall lease position was re-classified from “contingent resources” to “reserves” based on the existing producing Sugarloaf AMI wells. These reserves can be expected to further increase now that the Rancho Grande well has demonstrated productivity.

The Independent Expert Report valuation was also subjected to a value discount of approximately 35%** to account for the fact that a significant proportion of the Sugarloaf AMI acreage remains to be developed. With each additional successful well being drilled in our field, such as this latest result from Rancho Grande, the discount being applied to the valuation of this asset can be expected to be further reduced.”

* Refer section 2.6 of the RISC Technical Expert’s Report as part of Adelphi’s Target Statement dated 31 May 2010, using assessed recoverable “P50” reserves and “best estimate” resources based on 80 acre spacing development as applied to the Independent Expert’s preferred market value for Adelphi shares

* *Refer Independent Expert Report (paragraph 125 on page 26) as part of Adelphi’s Target Statement dated 31 May 2010


----------



## rock86

hey agent, when do you think they will have the reserve upgrade figures out??

Before the end of the month?


----------



## Ramblin Round

To name this field as "reserves" should de-risk an already de-risked investment even furthur correct ? Perhaps this will invite some larger than .40/share offers around here.


----------



## Agentm

rock86 said:


> hey agent, when do you think they will have the reserve upgrade figures out??
> 
> Before the end of the month?




there was one done the other week

i dont think any further ones would be needed


----------



## Agentm

Goldman Sachs JBWere Group Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 006 163 524 and its subsidiaries (Goldman Sachs JBWere Group)

There was a change in the interests of the substantial holder on 10 June 2010
The previous notice was given to the company on 2 June 2010

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares

Previous
8,545,546
5.05%

PRESENT
10,261,503
6.06%


chipping away..  working at being a decisive vote holder in that last week of chaos


----------



## jetblack

I would be guessing that the GSJB holdings are part of ADI's BOD  blocking strategy. I think that management held about 4% and with a number of loyal top twenty holders and others probably find that there may well be in total close to over 20% including GSJB.

But I think that this will block AWE attempts.


----------



## zerolimit

what would be in it for GS to form a blocking stake to stop AWE.. i think GS would rather just get a nice chunk that AWE have to pay them handsomely for....

GS are just after the $$$ imho


----------



## estseon

"i think GS would rather just get a nice chunk that AWE have to pay them handsomely for...."

They'd have to pay us the same or more......https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif


----------



## zerolimit

estseon said:


> "i think GS would rather just get a nice chunk that AWE have to pay them handsomely for...."
> 
> They'd have to pay us the same or more......https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif




thats what im hoping for hahah waiting for a revised offer!

my fingers are crossed daily

i do hold ADI


----------



## Agentm

looking at conoco a bit closer it has become evident they are picking up the pace..

many new permits in live oak, with 2 rigs dedicated to that county.. pegging out lots of sites all over their acreages right now..  they have put the pedal to the metal..

in karnes they are running with 1 rig 

in dewitt they are running with 1 rig


enduring is willing to pay $3500 and acre right now for town acreages in karnes and kenedy city..  operators are keen to drill under those two towns..

prices on these acreages are really esculating..

aut got a further 500 odd acres recently..  which imho accounts for some considerable outlays..   with a few more mop up acres to be chased down..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> looking at conoco a bit closer it has become evident they are picking up the pace..
> 
> many new permits in live oak, with 2 rigs dedicated to that county.. pegging out lots of sites all over their acreages right now..  they have put the pedal to the metal..
> 
> in karnes they are running with 1 rig
> 
> in dewitt they are running with 1 rig
> 
> 
> enduring is willing to pay $3500 and acre right now for town acreages in karnes and kenedy city..  operators are keen to drill under those two towns..
> 
> prices on these acreages are really esculating..
> 
> aut got a further 500 odd acres recently..  which imho accounts for some considerable outlays..   with a few more mop up acres to be chased down..




Agentm you state AUT have got a further 500 acres recently & a few more mop up acres to be chased down.
Can you be more specific as to the whereabouts of these acres & where you've recieved this imformation from?
I've noted that you've been a bit touchy over some of the posts in the past  which have challenge your thoughts & ideas in regard to ADI & AUT so dont respond if you feel threatened in any way. 
I hold both ADI & AUT.


----------



## estseon

jauncha,

AUT's June 9th presentation has reference to further acreage purchased. They don't believe in maps, though.There's just a schematic effort.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm you state AUT have got a further 500 acres recently & a few more mop up acres to be chased down.
> Can you be more specific as to the whereabouts of these acres & where you've recieved this imformation from?
> I've noted that you've been a bit touchy over some of the posts in the past  which have challenge your thoughts & ideas in regard to ADI & AUT so dont respond if you feel threatened in any way.
> I hold both ADI & AUT.




lol  

touchy on aut...

what a joke.. i moved out of aut a few weeks back. moved into another stock.. made a considerable return there and exited.. the reasons for my exit. which was the immediate concern over the volatility of the markets coupled with aut massive capital shortfall which will debilitate any move forward has been such a hard deal for many to accept i have been criticised for mentioning it..  lol.. and criticised for anything positive i have said about the share to boot.. lol..  imagine the reaction if i had anything negative to say on aut!!

with respect to acreages, both what estseon said and what the locals tell me, there are acreages, some large, very large and many small still needing a home..  and i have given an undertaking not to mention them at all on the forums, but as it was mentioned in a releases  and in reports i did glance a comment on it too. but if you have been following it close you will notice from time to time in the releases of adi the acreages mentioned in the ami has increased over time..  but interestingly aut does not specify its longhorn and ipanema acreage region, and as it wont map it properly, other than a reference to a broad sweeping coloured region on a map thats inaccurate, it has no desire to make it public, so i would say if i did a fair effort with my database and mapped it up, it may well make a lot of people very uncomfortable.. including the operator hilcorp.  who know i can do it in a heart beat..

if you pm me i can let you know of some incredible acreages yet to be secured.. enough to make any company an extremely large fortune..  but i may charge a fee for that type of information.. $20,000 would be my fee..


----------



## stefan_invester

hi everyone 

anyone got a clue or any idea of when a revised offer if any, will come from AWE.

cant wait to see what the result will be


----------



## Sdajii

stefan_invester said:


> hi everyone
> 
> anyone got a clue or any idea of when a revised offer if any, will come from AWE.
> 
> cant wait to see what the result will be




I'm pretty sure AWE is going to stay very quiet about any revised offer until it becomes public. If word got out that they were going to put a higher offer in, AWE knows as well as anyone that they'd have no hope at all of picking up any at 40c. We can only really speculate at this stage (unless someone wants to share some inside information), but since AWE is already a substantial holder, they probably won't want to see the price drop. Things will be interesting in about a month.


----------



## stefan_invester

yeah fair enough
the next month seems like a big
month for all the 3 JVP with ADI,
so will just have to wait and be patient


----------



## estseon

Sdajii said:


> I'm pretty sure AWE is going to stay very quiet about any revised offer until it becomes public. If word got out that they were going to put a higher offer in, AWE knows as well as anyone that they'd have no hope at all of picking up any at 40c. We can only really speculate at this stage (unless someone wants to share some inside information), but since AWE is already a substantial holder, they probably won't want to see the price drop. Things will be interesting in about a month.




They haven't picked up any shares as a result of their offer and they will not pick up any shares at the current offer price. The market bid price has been consistently above 40 cents. I had to pay 41.5 and 42 cents when I topped up. AWE has got zilch.

As to capital (AUT), it has said that current requirements are moderate, so possibly in the 5 - 10% region. But planning their capital requirements at this stage must be hell. It depends upon the operator's drilling plan and lease acquisition opportunities, neither of which is under the control of the Board. All that the Board can really do is to ensure that it doesn't obstruct the momentum build-up. The ADI Board got unfairly slagged off for its recent capital raising. I hope that the AUT Board isn't given the same treatment even if it elects for a cheaper, faster route for the raising at this time, such as a placement.

It's all guesswork but Hilcorp should have completed the farm-out wells by the end of July and Kowalik revisited also. The next well on S/L (@10%) and on Ipanema (@30%) will gobble up half the cash. Cash is generally committed up front and not necessarily for just one well. So, let's hope that the market gives those guys a break. This is all about a change in momentum driven by the operator, which is clearly happy with the results achieved. It's all good news for those with a longer term view. There could be a bit of pain initially.


----------



## Ramblin Round

> They haven't picked up any shares as a result of their offer and they will not pick up any shares at the current offer price.





This isn't an entirely accurate statement. Their holdings increased by 3% after the cash offer was made, and then they cut a statement bragging about it. If ADI Board was smart they would cut a letter today about how everyone is holding instead of selling. I say the ADI Board must sleep in quite often. Publicity is of key importance in a situation like this and yet and still ADI has little to no interest in it. AWE picks up shares and they immediately go bragging about it ? ADI needs to puff a bit showing how weak the offer is. Sure, we spent 55K on a 107 page independent review but let the Board share their feelings in a letter. Plus it's much cheaper.


----------



## philly

Ramblin Round said:


> This isn't an entirely accurate statement. Their holdings increased by 3% after the cash offer was made, and then they cut a statement bragging about it. If ADI Board was smart they would cut a letter today about how everyone is holding instead of selling. I say the ADI Board must sleep in quite often. Publicity is of key importance in a situation like this and yet and still ADI has little to no interest in it. AWE picks up shares and they immediately go bragging about it ? ADI needs to puff a bit showing how weak the offer is. Sure, we spent 55K on a 107 page independent review but let the Board share their feelings in a letter. Plus it's much cheaper.




IMHO this is really dead time in so far as this AWE bid is concerned
They have picked up a few shares initially but the SP has been above the bid for most of the time. They maintain that their offer is a good one despite this and they reject the conclusions in the ADI report. 
Given their current holding which prevents any other viable bid being made for ADI AWE can just wait until the current offer expires before it needs to take any further action. So I don't think the ADI BOD need do anything ATM. Hopefully the good news from Sugarloaf continues to come in the next few weeks which will truly show up the inadequacies of the AWE bid. 

IMO come July AWE will up their bid otherwise its just been a bit of a distraction. [Having said that, AWE like all holders has seen the value of its investment go up. Maybe AWE wants to sell out and was simply ramping the price upwards. I'll leave this for all the conspiracy theorists out there to comment on this]

Whether AWE offers the 61 cents which the ADI report suggests is a fair price is the only live issue here. If they are fair dinkum then they will because otherwise the bid is just going to drag on too long. On my reading of the ADI report such an offer would be supported by the BOD so that would greatly assist AWE in achieving their goal. 

The fact GS has purchased a 6% interest in ADI since the takeover bid suggest that GS is punting on a revised offer being made and sees some upside in the near term. IMO GS is in it for a quick 48% profit [ie buys @0.41 & sells @ 0.61]. I dismiss any suggestion that GS is aligning itself with the ADI BOD to block AWE.

As a holder I see plenty of upside in ADI & I would prefer to hold on even at 61 cents. Maybe if AWE were to offer holders an option of cash and or shares in AWE then they may achieve their goal. How about one AWE share for every 3 ADI shares.
ALL IMHO & DYOR


----------



## Bigukraine

Well know U.S. takeover firm KKR are in talks with Hillcourp and may acquire their Eagleford Shale assets for approx. U.S $400 million.... now that will spice up the action even more


----------



## Agentm

the article is this one i think bigukraine

http://sfgate.bloomberg.com/SFChronicle/Story/Print?docId=1376-L3Z1OH0D9L35-9


thsi is part of the report

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- KKR & Co., the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, may acquire about $400 million of shale assets in Texas’s Eagle Ford formation from Hilcorp Energy Co., two people familiar with the deal said.

KKR and Hilcorp, a closely held exploration and production company based in Houston, may partner to develop the south Texas formation, which has  gas deposits, according to one of the people who declined to be identified because the deal is private. The purchase may be announced this week.
KKR spokeswoman Kristi Huller said she couldn’t comment. Calls to Hilcorp


----------



## philly

Agentm you refer to this article from June 13 (Bloomberg) that KKR & Co., the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, may acquire about $400 million of shale assets in Texas’s Eagle Ford formation from Hilcorp Energy Co.

Now as I see it HILCORP has acquired its interest in the Sugarloaf AMI from the farmin with ADI, AUT & EKA and an extra interest in Turnbull and Ipanema from the additional farmin with AUT. So are these collective interests in the Eagleford worth $US400m? Or does HILCORP have other interests in the Eagle Ford that KKR & Co will buy? If HILCORP sells out who will operate the future drilling program. I'm not convinced that HILCORP selling their interest is necessarily good news for the ADI holders. It could in fact delay future drilling and slow down growth.
Please Agentm tell me its not so


----------



## gdaf

Hilcorp aren't selling out, they are doing a deal with KKR to share some of the recently acquired Eagleford Shale assets for US$400m. Hilcorp have 50% of the sugar AMI post farmout, and interests in the other wells with AUT. If this deal goes through, it will completely dismantle the AWE bid IMO. The re-rating is almost upon us folks - watch this space. If KKR invest anything near $400m and that is announced this week, I urge every single ADI shareholder firstly write to AWE asking them why a private investment company is willing to pay such a price for the exact same assets they're trying to steal and low ball from us, and also to ADI board of directors asking if they have entered into any separate negotiations with KKR. Make no mistake, there is money on the table for these assets right now, and it's in every shareholder's interest to ensure the best price is paid for them.


----------



## Agentm

philly said:


> Agentm you refer to this article from June 13 (Bloomberg) that KKR & Co., the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, may acquire about $400 million of shale assets in Texas’s Eagle Ford formation from Hilcorp Energy Co.
> 
> Now as I see it HILCORP has acquired its interest in the Sugarloaf AMI from the farmin with ADI, AUT & EKA and an extra interest in Turnbull and Ipanema from the additional farmin with AUT. So are these collective interests in the Eagleford worth $US400m? Or does HILCORP have other interests in the Eagle Ford that KKR & Co will buy? If HILCORP sells out who will operate the future drilling program. I'm not convinced that HILCORP selling their interest is necessarily good news for the ADI holders. It could in fact delay future drilling and slow down growth.
> Please Agentm tell me its not so




hilcorp have extensive acreages

what part is being farmed out by them is yet to be announced

what gdaf is stating is pretty accurate


----------



## estseon

Ramblin,

"This isn't an entirely accurate statement. Their holdings increased by 3% after the cash offer was made, and then they cut a statement bragging about it"
=========================================================

I have checked back.

The statements issued through ASX from the notification of the offer on 17 May to the AWE response to the Target Statement on 3rd June all state AWE's holding (through its sub) as 33.79%. The SP has not dipped down to or below the offer price since that date so far as I am aware. AWE cannot buy ADI shares at a price above the prevailing offer price - it is not permitted to.

Further, ADI's presentation of 30th April shows AWE's holding at 33% and, for that matter, so does its presentation of 23 January 2009, 17 months ago.

If AWE has acquired any additional % in ADI, it must have been since 3rd June 2010.

The only 'substantial holding' notice from ADI has been in relation to Goldman Sachs.


Re KKR

I see that as a big vote of confidence in Hilcorp, our operator. KKR is not only backing the commercial value of the shales and chalk but also the ability of Hilcorp to deliver. This means that Hilcorp won't have to ration its own cash resources and slow down the development of the ADI/EKA/AUT acreages. So, everyone is raising capital but Hilcorp through its earlier debt issue and now through an asset sale (in effect). They really do mean to hit this area hard.

Note that Hilcorp itself is happy to dilute its interest for cash and risk transfer. There cannot be any lingering doubts over the JVPs' decision to farmout. Nor their decision to raise further capital to maintain their WIs.


----------



## stefan_invester

well does anyone know
what does all this mean for ADI/EKA/AUT shareholders?

very interested to know if this is a good thing or not


----------



## Kremmen

Until we knew how much KKR was buying, it was fairly meaningless. According to current reports, they are buying 40% of Hilcorp's Eagleford operation for their US$400M. (see Businessweek article)

So, that values Hilcorp's 100,000 net acres at US$1B.


----------



## nioka

Kremmen said:


> Until we knew how much KKR was buying, it was fairly meaningless. According to current reports, they are buying 40% of Hilcorp's Eagleford operation for their US$400M. (see Businessweek article)
> 
> So, that values Hilcorp's 100,000 net acres at US$1B.




It is not as simple as that. Are they selling the best acreage, the worst acreage, the most expensive lease areas or the cheapest lease areas.? I doubt they are selling the best!


----------



## Silhouetteau

On a side note,

Does anyone (agentm) know why all the acreages are are named after Brazilian landmarks? (Sugarloaf mountain, Ipanema Beach)


----------



## lemontree

Silhouetteau said:


> On a side note,
> 
> Does anyone (agentm) know why all the acreages are are named after Brazilian landmarks? (Sugarloaf mountain, Ipanema Beach)




Good observation Silhouetteau! I never noticed this! A bit of trivia for us all - i do hope someone might be able to answer this, im not curious haha


----------



## jetblack

The names most probaly come from a landing strip that services the sugar area. 

I previously speculated that there was another cashed up player, my thoughts on this bid by AWE and the ADI indie valuation has been to assign a more tangible value asset wise to their holding in the Sugar. (the bid has always struck me as being haphazzard and is there for show)

There is every possibility now with what is going on with Hilcorp that we see a bid by them to buy out ADI.

More speculation.


----------



## Ramblin Round

> There is every possibility now with what is going on with Hilcorp that we see a bid by them to buy out ADI.




I agree. Hilcorp is primarily an offshore corporation now suffering under the offshore exploration freeze of the Gulf by Obama. In the meantime they will need to make a strategic move to stabilize future production onshore. This will then offset the loss of new deepwater rig exploration until that mess gets straightened out.

As for onshore exploration, *Drill Baby Drill *comes to mind.


----------



## Agentm

the longhorn ipanema excelsior regions and others were named by the original geologist working with TCEI previous to drilling the initial target well when the play was the edwards

serendipity and a very switched on engineer at burlington resources (steve weston) had the foresight to frac a zone that displayed potential in the kunde 1 well... we picked up the same target in sugarloaf 1 a year or so later and the rest is history..


----------



## Miner

Agentm said:


> the longhorn ipanema excelsior regions and others were named by the original geologist working with TCEI previous to drilling the initial target well when the play was the edwards
> 
> serendipity and a very switched on engineer at burlington resources (steve weston) had the foresight to frac a zone that displayed potential in the kunde 1 well... *we picked *up the same target in sugarloaf 1 a year or so later and the rest is history..





Just curious Agentm - are you a Geo working in ADI or a free lance consultant for Eagle Bay notwithstanding we get free services from your knowledge in ADI. I was intrigued in the word *'We" marked red in your post*


----------



## sam76

I think Agent M means "we" as in JVP etc....

just a side point, is there some way for the mods to tell us exactly how many characters we need to fill 100 limit.

Again, sometimes people can express what they need to say within 100.


----------



## Agentm

sam76 said:


> I think Agent M means "we" as in JVP etc....
> 
> just a side point, is there some way for the mods to tell us exactly how many characters we need to fill 100 limit.
> 
> Again, sometimes people can express what they need to say within 100.




lol


i think anyone reading that understood it in the context of the adi thread and adi being the "we"

what a weird place this forum is. post anything and your grammar is analysed to the max.. next conspiracy theory!!

i find the usa contacts to be the most polite and amenable folk i have ever met.

whereas there are very obvious folk whom are investors in the  jvp  that are less than cordial to say the least..  i have been putting up info on the sugarkane play for some time as an investor and copped constant huge flak and criticism for contributing!!

imho the old tune applies here... "Lily the Pink" which is a modification of the older folk song "The Ballad Of Lydia Pinkham"

lol


----------



## Agentm

a further permit for the kowalik well is in the rrc 

as is a permit for the schendel unit 1,  a conoco permit near runge

oil prices are gaining in this uncertain economic climate.. and a nuclear option for the bp spill is being touted by someone.. its like red adair is coming back in remake.. but with hollywood scripting!!


----------



## philly

The deal has been done and this should give the SP  a kick along as more investors realise the potential of the Eagleford.

KKR Forms Partnership to Develop Acreage Within Eagle Ford Shale
Houston, TX, June 14, 2010 –Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (together with its affiliates, "KKR") and Hilcorp Energy Company ("Hilcorp"), a privately owned oil and gas exploration and development company based in Houston, Texas, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement for KKR to invest up to $400 million in Hilcorp Resources, LLC (the "Company"), a newly formed partnership created to own and develop Hilcorp's oil and gas properties located in the Eagle Ford Shale trend of South Texas (the "Eagle Ford"). 

The Company will develop certain acreage within the Eagle Ford, located in an approximately two hundred mile long area in South Central Texas, southeast of San Antonio. The partnership combines a capital commitment from both parties as well as the contribution of a 100,000 net acre Eagle Ford position from Hilcorp. Upon close, Hilcorp will hold 60% and KKR will hold 40% of the Company, with Hilcorp's management and employees running the day-to-day operations. "With more than two decades of history, Hilcorp is a known leader when it comes to exploring for, developing and producing oil and gas, and Hilcorp's management is unparalleled in terms of its experience in the South Texas region. This partnership is an endorsement of the founding vision of Hilcorp Energy and the strength and experience of its management team," John Bookout, Managing Director of KKR, said.

The Eagle Ford represents a promising energy development in North America. Comprised of a layer of rock found at depths of 7,000 feet to 14,000 feet, with a thickness of approximately 250 feet, the Eagle Ford is richly deposited with hydrocarbons and is estimated to contain over 80 billion barrels equivalent (BBoe) of original oil in place. One of the newest shale plays in the country, the Eagle Ford has become an increasingly attractive area of interest for oil and gas companies given that it benefits from a favorable (oil-weighted) commodity profile and is located proximate to existing oil and gas infrastructure and liquids product markets. Over the past year, *Hilcorp has assembled approximately 100,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford, in some of the most attractive areas of the play, substantially all of which is operated by Hilcorp. Hilcorp is in the process of commencing its Eagle Ford development program and is currently running two horizontal drilling rigs in the play. In addition to the development program, the Company will actively look for opportunities to increase its acreage position in the Eagle Ford through leasing, joint ventures and acquisitions.* Going forward, the Company intends to be creative in structuring future transactions as it expands its Eagle Ford position and believes that it can offer a strong value proposition to landowners and operators in the trend.

"We are thrilled to partner with such an impressive management team on an investment that will develop much needed oil and natural gas reserves in Texas. We believe in the long-term potential of the Eagle Ford and see a tremendous opportunity to drive job creation and related economic benefits for a variety of stakeholders in connection with the development of the Eagle Ford," Marc Lipschultz, Member of KKR and Global Head of KKR's Energy and Infrastructure business, said."       


I am particularly interested by this disclosure:
In addition to the development program, the Company [HILCORP] will actively look for opportunities to increase its acreage position in the Eagle Ford through leasing, joint ventures and acquisitions.

What does this mean for the JVP?
More interesting times ahead
I am a holder


----------



## Ramblin Round

Wouldn't that be great if Hilcorp jumps in and makes all our dreams come true ? They have the cash, they have the power and they have the position to buy up the entire field if they choose to. Hope to see a move soon.


----------



## lemontree

The offer has been increased to a staggering... 42c! It seems this may have been a ploy to grab some attention after all. If AWE claim the 42c offer is final, i don't think they're actually serious about the takeover.


----------



## Agentm

not a compelling situation by the looks

unless someone else wants it  

would have been a nice steady transition from explorer to producer for adi

lets see what the next few weeks offer..


----------



## lemontree

It seems the board is expecting AWE to be successful, on the basis that hedge funds who hve accumulated shares at 41c are probably going to sell at 42c as they most likely won't hold long term. What are your thoughts agentm?


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm said:


> not a compelling situation by the looks
> 
> unless someone else wants it
> 
> would have been a nice steady transition from explorer to producer for adi
> 
> lets see what the next few weeks offer..




Correct me if i am wrong but the directors of ADI are going to sell their shares to awe/arc due to the probability of some of them getting voted out at the next gm.. looks like you won't have the same jockey on this horse.


----------



## bazollie

Hey guys , the trouble is with this last offer is exactly that , it is their* last* offer! The hedge funds will exit at 42 cents so AWE will end up with a controlling stake. Add to that the directors appear to support the offer so I think that we are screwed. 

All in all , AWE have got a bargain and we long term suffering holders get jack sh%t!!!!!

Not happy Jan!!!!!


----------



## Kremmen

It seems a bit premature for the directors to be selling out at 42c. Maybe the funds which have been buying in aren't long-term investors, but they also probably want more than 1c profit and they can and might stall and support the current management if they think it's in their interests to do so.


----------



## Agentm

its up to the funds to decide really

they act fast and think later, and mostly end up in front in the majority of situations..

i cant see any offers coming through with awe commanding a huge blocking stake for anyone..

its up to the shareholders to make their own mind up

i was certainly happy to hold for better days..


----------



## Kremmen

Do any of you know how long it takes in this situation before the ASX starts trading on them again? It's taken 20 mins to just move the buy order, and they're still in "adjust".


----------



## lemontree

Kremmen said:


> Do any of you know how long it takes in this situation before the ASX starts trading on them again? It's taken 20 mins to just move the buy order, and they're still in "adjust".




I think it can remain in adjust for a few hours. I remember with the SIP bid recently, SIP remained in "adjust" for something like 2 hours. But that's just from memory


----------



## Kremmen

lemontree said:


> I think it can remain in adjust for a few hours. I remember with the SIP bid recently, SIP remained in "adjust" for something like 2 hours. But that's just from memory




They re-started at exactly 2pm. Quite a few trades going through at 42c, though I doubt many will want to crystalise their capital gain in this financial year, rather than wait a week or so.


----------



## noco

A couple of weeks ago, ADI directors placed a value of 61cents a share. Why are they now selling us down the drain? Confused!


----------



## tonudiki

I am very unhappy at this derisory final offer by AWE of 42 cents per share. 

  The "Target's Statement", recently issued by ADI, demonstrated a fair value of 61 cents per share and this was after some very heavy discounting at 15% of values by PWC. A more usual and justifiable discounting rate of 10% would IMHO have produced a CURRENT fair value of over 80 cents. 

 This offer truly is a stich up as far as ordinary shareholders in ADI are concerned and we have been mugged unless a larger offer comes along. I am also unhappy at the weak response by ADI today.


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> its up to the funds to decide really
> 
> they act fast and think later, and mostly end up in front in the majority of situations..
> 
> i cant see any offers coming through with awe commanding a huge blocking stake for anyone..
> 
> its up to the shareholders to make their own mind up
> 
> i was certainly happy to hold for better days..




Sorry Agentm but what better days do you anticipate?
Dont quite follow... with management selling us down the river there'll be no ADI to have better days with.


----------



## martyfar

jancha said:


> Sorry Agentm but what better days do you anticipate?
> Dont quite follow... with management selling us down the river there'll be no ADI to have better days with.




Yeah ... I find myself asking the same question .. What better days???   It seems that in ADI allocating AWE shares  in the capital raising they have held contributed  to a situation where AWE is now able to hold the  "symbolic knife" to the throat  of ADI and its long term  LOYAL  shareholders and force us to accept a "firesale" price for our shares.     

At the risk of  being branded a conspiracy  theorist,  the situation as it stands today doesn't bode well for the management team of ADI   ...me  !!!   not  happy Jan


----------



## Sdajii

I took Agentm's words "I was happy to hold for better days" to mean that he *was* wanting to hold on for better days, but now that's not an option, because AWE have screwed us. The ADI board really didn't have much of an option here, the mistake was probably being made for several months, as they allowed ADI to be so undervalued for so long, and thus made it so attractive for a hostile move like AWE's. It's quite ridiculous that they did a capital raising at 25c.

I had been expecting to be a lot more than 42c out of my shares over the next few years.


----------



## noco

Does anyone anticpate what will happen if we do not accept 42 cents?
AWE have to get to 90% before they can force shareholders to sell.
What will happen to the price when the offer closes?


----------



## jancha

Sdajii said:


> I took Agentm's words "I was happy to hold for better days" to mean that he *was* wanting to hold on for better days, but now that's not an option, because AWE have screwed us. The ADI board really didn't have much of an option here, the mistake was probably being made for several months, as they allowed ADI to be so undervalued for so long, and thus made it so attractive for a hostile move like AWE's. It's quite ridiculous that they did a capital raising at 25c.
> 
> I had been expecting to be a lot more than 42c out of my shares over the next few years.




Capital Raising was i sore point for me & other average holders @ 25c except for the sophisticated investors such as AWE.
AWE picked a fair amount of cheap shares then & now cleaning up with this cheap rip off offer.

So whats with ADIs Target Statement book (cost?) telling us to reject the offer a few weeks ago....whats changed?
After this week-end with directors from both AWE & ADI ADI come back indirectly saying in their annoucement to sell.....So what if 21% of the shares have been traded since the offer... Has Goldman Sach sold the 9mil they've picked up over that time?
 ADI are encouraging us to sell now..why?
Whats changed other than 2c token rise & their boardroom meeting


----------



## estseon

tonudiki said:


> I am very unhappy at this derisory final offer by AWE of 42 cents per share.
> 
> The "Target's Statement", recently issued by ADI, demonstrated a fair value of 61 cents per share and this was after some very heavy discounting at 15% of values by PWC. A more usual and justifiable discounting rate of 10% would IMHO have produced a CURRENT fair value of over 80 cents.
> 
> This offer truly is a stich up as far as ordinary shareholders in ADI are concerned and we have been mugged unless a larger offer comes along. I am also unhappy at the weak response by ADI today.




Agreed re stitch up. The fault lies with the ASX rules permitting a bidder to point a shotgun at the heads of PIs once it has bare control. AWE only needed 25% of the shares held by the public. The ADI directors had little choice but to make the recommendation, imo. They appear to be saying "don't expect any fairness from the new squad". The replacement directors will be answerable to AWE shareholders and they will be in a position to both de-list the ADI shares and bleed ADI dry like swamp leeches.


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> Capital Raising was i sore point for me & other average holders @ 25c except for the sophisticated investors such as AWE.
> AWE picked a fair amount of cheap shares then & now cleaning up with this cheap rip off offer.
> 
> So whats with ADIs Target Statement book (cost?) telling us to reject the offer a few weeks ago....whats changed?
> After this week-end with directors from both AWE & ADI ADI come back indirectly saying in their annoucement to sell.....So what if 21% of the shares have been traded since the offer... Has Goldman Sach sold the 9mil they've picked up over that time?
> ADI are encouraging us to sell now..why?
> Whats changed other than 2c token rise & their boardroom meeting




It's not that ADI is saying 42c is a fair price, they're saying we're screwed and have no choice. People wanting to make a quick profit bought up lots of shares at around 41c. They aren't people wanting to hold long term. Now the offer is 42c, they can get their quick profit by selling, which means AWE gets the shares. Once they get enough they can vote the ADI board out, and effectively take over, so once selling momentum builds, which is what the ADI board expect, AWE is going to get the lot, and if you don't sell now you'll probably have to take less after the offer expires, or you'll end up being forced to sell to AWE because they get a big enough share to make you.

ADI slit all our throats and their own by giving so many cheap shares to AWE. That's where the critical mistake was made. It's very disappointing.


----------



## philly

All holders please do not despair

The Corporation law places requirements and obligations on Substantial Shareholders of companies listed on stock exchanges in Australia.

The objective of the law is so that market participants, shareholders and directors of a listed company are able to identify the controllers (including the associates of those shareholders who also hold such shares) of substantial blocks of voting shares or interests in that company.

Section 9 of the Act defines a ‘substantial holding’ in shares as being a ‘relevant interest’ of 5% or more (of the voting power of those shares) under the control of a shareholder and/or his associates.

Notification Obligations
Under section 671B, any shareholder who acquires (alone or with associates) a relevant interest in 5% or more of a company’s shares must disclose that fact by lodging an ASIC Form 603 “Notice of Initial Substantial Shareholder” with the Company and the stock exchange. 

This lodgement requirement also extends to a shareholder making a takeover bid even if the initial holding is below 5%.

Furthermore, for each 1% (or more) change in holding a Form 604 “Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Shareholder” must be lodged.

And, if the holding falls below 5% a Form 605 “Notice of Ceasing to be a Substantial Shareholder” must be lodged.

These Forms must be lodged within 2 business days after they become aware of the transaction or change in % holding and by 9:30am next stock exchange trading day in a takeover situation.

Now I have searched the ASX company announcements and report as follows:
17 May 2010 AEL lodges a Form 604 advising that it holds 57,200,533 shares [33.79%] in ADI

2 June 2010 Goldman Sachs lodges a Form 603 advising that it holds 8,545,546 shares [5.05%] in ADI

11 June 2010 Goldman Sachs lodges a Form 604 advising that it now holds 10,261,503 shares [6.06%] in ADI

From this it appears that from 17 May 2010 AEL has not acquired any more that 1% of the shares in ADI. If it had acquired more than 1% then it would have had to lodge a Form 604.

I then went to the ADI website and the top 20 Shareholders as at 11 June 2010 AEL is on top with 57,200,533 shares. The same amount it held back on 17 May 2010. *AEL has not acquired any shares during this takeover bid*

Today I am told by the ADI BOD to sell because the hedge funds have been buying up and they will be selling at 42 cents and AEL will get a controlling interest [50.01%]

Well hedge funds are shareholders too so if they are buying up when will they be lodging their Form 603? The law requires them to do so if they acquire 5% or more. Oh they are SO SO smart that they buy less than 5% so they don’t have to lodge a Form 603.

But the problem is that AEL still needs 16.22% of the ADI shares to get control [50.01%]. So are there 4 hedge funds out there each holding 4% of the shares and all ready to sell to AEL for 42 cents?
And if there are so what? AEL can't compulsory acquire my shares until it has 90% of the shares. ITS A LONG WAY FROM 50% TO 90%
And what is AEL going to do with  Sugarloaf. It's going to drill, drill and then drill some more
so I'm a minority holder I still get the benefit of discoveries and the SP will go north and I can decide when I sell and no one else

IMHO & DYOR


----------



## lemontree

philly said:


> All holders please do not despair
> 
> The Corporation law places requirements and obligations on Substantial Shareholders of companies listed on stock exchanges in Australia.
> 
> The objective of the law is so that market participants, shareholders and directors of a listed company are able to identify the controllers (including the associates of those shareholders who also hold such shares) of substantial blocks of voting shares or interests in that company.
> 
> Section 9 of the Act defines a ‘substantial holding’ in shares as being a ‘relevant interest’ of 5% or more (of the voting power of those shares) under the control of a shareholder and/or his associates.
> 
> Notification Obligations
> Under section 671B, any shareholder who acquires (alone or with associates) a relevant interest in 5% or more of a company’s shares must disclose that fact by lodging an ASIC Form 603 “Notice of Initial Substantial Shareholder” with the Company and the stock exchange.
> 
> This lodgement requirement also extends to a shareholder making a takeover bid even if the initial holding is below 5%.
> 
> Furthermore, for each 1% (or more) change in holding a Form 604 “Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Shareholder” must be lodged.
> 
> And, if the holding falls below 5% a Form 605 “Notice of Ceasing to be a Substantial Shareholder” must be lodged.
> 
> These Forms must be lodged within 2 business days after they become aware of the transaction or change in % holding and by 9:30am next stock exchange trading day in a takeover situation.
> 
> Now I have searched the ASX company announcements and report as follows:
> 17 May 2010 AEL lodges a Form 604 advising that it holds 57,200,533 shares [33.79%] in ADI
> 
> 2 June 2010 Goldman Sachs lodges a Form 603 advising that it holds 8,545,546 shares [5.05%] in ADI
> 
> 11 June 2010 Goldman Sachs lodges a Form 604 advising that it now holds 10,261,503 shares [6.06%] in ADI
> 
> From this it appears that from 17 May 2010 AEL has not acquired any more that 1% of the shares in ADI. If it had acquired more than 1% then it would have had to lodge a Form 604.
> 
> I then went to the ADI website and the top 20 Shareholders as at 11 June 2010 AEL is on top with 57,200,533 shares. The same amount it held back on 17 May 2010. *AEL has not acquired any shares during this takeover bid*
> 
> Today I am told by the ADI BOD to sell because the hedge funds have been buying up and they will be selling at 42 cents and AEL will get a controlling interest [50.01%]
> 
> Well hedge funds are shareholders too so if they are buying up when will they be lodging their Form 603? The law requires them to do so if they acquire 5% or more. Oh they are SO SO smart that they buy less than 5% so they don’t have to lodge a Form 603.
> 
> But the problem is that AEL still needs 16.22% of the ADI shares to get control [50.01%]. So are there 4 hedge funds out there each holding 4% of the shares and all ready to sell to AEL for 42 cents?
> And if there are so what? AEL can't compulsory acquire my shares until it has 90% of the shares. ITS A LONG WAY FROM 50% TO 90%
> And what is AEL going to do with  Sugarloaf. It's going to drill, drill and then drill some more
> so I'm a minority holder I still get the benefit of discoveries and the SP will go north and I can decide when I sell and no one else
> 
> IMHO & DYOR




You forget to mention AEL would have gained about 7million shares today, they probably havent submitted the 604 yet, as they have 2 days to do so. 7 million shares will bring their holdings to approximately 38%. In my own opinion we won't be seeing too much selling off until the start of july. Either because of tax considerations or because the offer ends on the 7th, so perhaps decisions are still being made!


----------



## jancha

Philly in regard to your last post....then why has ADI management changed their sentiment in the new offer that AWE has submitted?

They should be strong within their management & sit tight instead of stating if AWE achieve their 50% some directors will sell their shares & options.
All what ADI are achieving by these comments are the sale of shares post haste to AWE. Why?
This is the opposite is needed...also how many buyers who bought @ 41c would be happy selling at 42c..making a .25% profit? Chicken feed.
I can smell a rat?


----------



## Sdajii

If AWE gets over 50%, that means they can vote for pretty much anything and get it, right? Put it to a vote and they automatically win. So they can bleed ADI dry, shove it into their own pockets, and leave us stuffed.



jancha said:


> Philly in regard to your last post....then why has ADI management changed their sentiment in the new offer that AWE has submitted?
> 
> They should be strong within their management & sit tight instead of stating if AWE achieve their 50% some directors will sell their shares & options.
> All what ADI are achieving by these comments are the sale of shares post haste to AWE. Why?
> This is the opposite is needed...also how many buyers who bought @ 41c would be happy selling at 42c..making a .25% profit? Chicken feed.
> I can smell a rat?




People like me will probably sell out at 42c now (I initially bought in at 17.5c, then topped up and up until 41c) because there isn't a better alternative. I topped up at 41c hoping for AWE to get thrown out or for an offer of 50-60c, but I also did it with the confidence that I had a safety net of 40c (which has now become 42c). Looks like it hasn't gone well, and I'm basically just using that safety net. You don't use safety nets because you're happy about it, you use them when plan A doesn't work.

I never thought I'd be this sad about making a 65% profit in about eight months.


----------



## Ramblin Round

So here's the million dollar question...........what happens if we do not sell ? what happens to the shares do they disappear or are then rolled into ARC AEL AWE ? Strategy ideas anyone ?


----------



## Agentm

Sdajii said:


> If AWE gets over 50%, that means they can vote for pretty much anything and get it, right? Put it to a vote and they automatically win. So they can bleed ADI dry, shove it into their own pockets, and leave us stuffed.
> 
> 
> 
> People like me will probably sell out at 42c now (I initially bought in at 17.5c, then topped up and up until 41c) because there isn't a better alternative. I topped up at 41c hoping for AWE to get thrown out or for an offer of 50-60c, but I also did it with the confidence that I had a safety net of 40c (which has now become 42c). Looks like it hasn't gone well, and I'm basically just using that safety net. You don't use safety nets because you're happy about it, you use them when plan A doesn't work.
> 
> I never thought I'd be this sad about making a 65% profit in about eight months.




nicely put

its a takeover, its a final offer. 

some will take it and  there may be those who will leave it.

imho its up to yourself to work it out and i think your on the money..

if no offers come through by today imho its all over..

there is a whole word of opportunities to invest into out there..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> nicely put
> 
> its a takeover, its a final offer.
> 
> some will take it and  there may be those who will leave it.
> 
> imho its up to yourself to work it out and i think your on the money..
> 
> if no offers come through by today imho its all over..
> 
> there is a whole word of opportunities to invest into out there..




Agentm its a final offer @ 42c till the 9th of July.
What happens if they dont get there 50%?
AWE will still hold a large portion of ADI without having the final say in anything?


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm its a final offer @ 42c till the 9th of July.
> What happens if they dont get there 50%?
> AWE will still hold a large portion of ADI without having the final say in anything?




they held 57 mill on the 18th

got about 7.4 mill yesterday


they need 84 mill or so for the 50%

there is already 2 mill there on the sell

kinda thinking its not likely that they wont reach their objective, with major holders and the directors not about to stay around..

its just a process now imho..


----------



## Bigukraine

Agentm said:


> nicely put
> 
> its a takeover, its a final offer.
> 
> some will take it and  there may be those who will leave it.
> 
> imho its up to yourself to work it out and i think your on the money..
> 
> if no offers come through by today imho its all over..
> 
> there is a whole word of opportunities to invest into out there..




Hi agentm,

I have a few small facts that i need my memory refreshed on and please feel free to correct me at any time....

1) I think in previous threads it was mentioned that you are/were a top 20 holder of ADI and in the ANN by ADI/AWE that major shareholders were consulted prior to the  final .42c offer so were you a party to these negotiations??????

2) It also stated that the major players had indicated that they would be selling their stake to AWE at the .42c did that include you ????

3) Considering over the years your information has been very informative you seem subdued in your assesment of this latest development that could see the end of a company that has had your support over those years

puzzled


----------



## zerolimit

im out

i only joined in, in an attempt to make a quick buck on a good chance of a revised offer with a solid safety net.

that said for those who still want the exposure, its not like they plan to destroy the company, they still want the same thing you do! drill drill drill

it may not be so bad being a minority shareholder!


----------



## luap77

48% if the directors + GS sell. Add on major holder or a smaller hedge and that's at least 50%, hence the announcement IMO. I smell a rat, but from what I can tell this isn't that unusual in the game.


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> they held 57 mill on the 18th
> 
> got about 7.4 mill yesterday
> 
> 
> they need 84 mill or so for the 50%
> 
> there is already 2 mill there on the sell
> 
> kinda thinking its not likely that they wont reach their objective, with major holders and the directors not about to stay around..
> 
> its just a process now imho..




Agentm do you think the negativity with management is helping AWE get their 50% mark?
The only way AWE will reach 50% is if large holders like yourself sell & they're not atm.
Scare tactics with general holders might get them over the line tho imo you seem to be taking it quite calmly.
You've been on this thread for years & yet your calmly excepting defeat???
As i said before i think your bias as far as management goes or you dont like to admit being wrong.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Agentm do you think the negativity with management is helping AWE get their 50% mark?
> The only way AWE will reach 50% is if large holders like yourself sell & they're not atm.
> Scare tactics with general holders might get them over the line tho imo you seem to be taking it quite calmly.
> You've been on this thread for years & yet your calmly excepting defeat???
> As i said before i think your bias as far as management goes or you dont like to admit being wrong.




lol

 your back into your usual fashion.. why did i bother a reply to you? 

jancha, you asked me a question that i politely answer and then go nuts and get insulting.. 

i think what ever your problem is with me is totally your deal, i will act as i chose and behave as i wish.. and obviously i am not acting as you want me to, and your behaving like a child.. 

the takeover was unexpected and a disappointment.. my preference was to ride the adi share through at least another 12 month cycle.. 

i think you meant to say i was accepting defeat in your post?  which is kinda odd.  i am a holder in adi and i have just witnessed a take over by awe with a final offer of .42.. i wasnt in any battle to begin with.. i held on hoping a better offer would come, or a new player enter the picture,, but thats very unlikely

unless some miracle happens today and a blindside happens (which is why i am not selling until  later in the piece) i am certain i will not be leaving my capital in the hands of the awe directors.. 

from what i read in the release, the management is pulling out, so will the major holders, so what battle is left to fight?

i am admitting nothing to no one jancha. just watching an awe takeover on my adi shares atm..

your a totally rude piece of work jancha!


----------



## jancha

luap77 said:


> 48% if the directors + GS sell. Add on major holder or a smaller hedge and that's at least 50%, hence the announcement IMO. I smell a rat, but from what I can tell this isn't that unusual in the game.




If the directors & GS sell.
So why are'nt ADIs management encouraging share holders to sit tight instead of the opposite?
Why state in their announcement yesterday that 21% of the company shares have been sold since the announcement of AWEs offer? Giving the impression that AWE will be picking them up.
If i was Goldman Sach why would i buy 10mil ADI shares (6%) @ 41c & sell @ 42 for a .25% profit?
Whats that? Wow a whopping 100k!!
I smell a rat alright.


----------



## prgudula

ARC ENERGY Limited’s Takeover: Form 604 – Notice of Change of Interests of
Substantial Holder
ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 advises that its current substantial holding in
Adelphi Energy Limited (ASX: ADI) yesterday 21 June 2010, has increased from 33.792% to
37.975%.

Please see the attached Form 604 for further details.
For further information please see our website www.awexplore.com or contact:
Bruce Wood Garry Marsden
Managing Director Corporate Development Manager
AWE Limited garry.marsden@awexplore.com
Phone: +61 2 8912 8000 Phone: 0400 040 106
26038984v1 Page 1


----------



## Agentm

Bigukraine said:


> Hi agentm,
> 
> I have a few small facts that i need my memory refreshed on and please feel free to correct me at any time....
> 
> 1) I think in previous threads it was mentioned that you are/were a top 20 holder of ADI and in the ANN by ADI/AWE that major shareholders were consulted prior to the  final .42c offer so were you a party to these negotiations??????
> 
> 2) It also stated that the major players had indicated that they would be selling their stake to AWE at the .42c did that include you ????
> 
> 3) Considering over the years your information has been very informative you seem subdued in your assesment of this latest development that could see the end of a company that has had your support over those years
> 
> puzzled




1/ i am not a top 20 holder atm.. just outside it..  i was not aware of the awe discussions with adi over the weekend at all. 

2/ i will possibly sell in the next few weeks,, i am waiting for today to finish up, if nothing further comes through i would say with the board not hanging around, either will my capital. i place capital with those i think i can trust, and obviously awe would not fit that profile in any way.

3/ i am a realist, i have supported adi, as an investor, and its not like anyone who likes the region cant invest into it further..  i cant change the awe scenario at all.. its totally out of my control..  i would love to hold adi for another 12 months, but imho that cant happen..


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> lol
> 
> your back into your usual fashion.. why did i bother a reply to you?
> 
> jancha, you asked me a question that i politely answer and then go nuts and get insulting..
> 
> i think what ever your problem is with me is totally your deal, i will act as i chose and behave as i wish.. and obviously i am not acting as you want me to, and your behaving like a child..
> 
> the takeover was unexpected and a disappointment.. my preference was to ride the adi share through at least another 12 month cycle..
> 
> i think you meant to say i was accepting defeat in your post?  which is kinda odd.  i am a holder in adi and i have just witnessed a take over by awe with a final offer of .42.. i wasnt in any battle to begin with.. i held on hoping a better offer would come, or a new player enter the picture,, but thats very unlikely
> 
> unless some miracle happens today and a blindside happens (which is why i am not selling until  later in the piece) i am certain i will not be leaving my capital in the hands of the awe directors..
> 
> from what i read in the release, the management is pulling out, so will the major holders, so what battle is left to fight?
> 
> i am admitting nothing to no one jancha. just watching an awe takeover on my adi shares atm..
> 
> your a totally rude piece of work jancha!




Lol
Not insulting Agentm just observant.

You tend to agree with everything that management does & have little criticism towards them which in my opinion makes you bias.
You only have to look back in your posts to see that.

In ADIs announcement yesterday they basically have given up the fort as you have.
There was too much negativity in their announcement.
Why did they bother with costs of the Target Statement asking share holders not to sell only a few weeks back & now instead of asking us to sit tight & not sell....basically telling us to sell.
Whats changed?
As someone else has enquired.... were you at that board meeting?


----------



## lemontree

I dont see any miracles happening agentm, AWE now have another 8mil in the first 25 minutes of trading today. So that brings their total to about 72 million shares now. It's funny how most of us will be making quite a decent profit, but everyone is still displeased cause there certainly would've been a bigger profit to be made in the future.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Lol
> Not insulting Agentm just observant.
> 
> You tend to agree with everything that management does & have little criticism towards them which in my opinion makes you bias.
> You only have to look back in your posts to see that.
> 
> In ADIs announcement yesterday they basically have given up the fort as you have.
> There was too much negativity in their announcement.
> Why did they bother with costs of the Target Statement asking share holders not to sell only a few weeks back & now instead of asking us to sit tight & not sell....basically telling us to sell.
> Whats changed?
> As someone else has enquired.... were you at that board meeting?




lol jancha, your just plain insulting and rude ...  never been anything else but that ..

your right jancha, i have supported adi and agreed with the direction the board took throughout.  if i didnt agree with the direction they moved i would have removed my capital immediately.. 

that doesnt make me biased.. i have too much at stake to be biased..

your painting me as something i am not jancha.

i have not given up the fort jancha, as i dont own it, the shareholders do, and one major holder just bought the fort up..   if a better bid came through and someone wanted the asset then i would say things would be different, but i cant see any bids other than awe atm.. 

all i am seeing is the awe shareholder take over the majority of shares at .42

its not something i particularly am happy about, and i have no ability to change the situation thats happened.  

jancha , your one mixed up puppy hey..

btw lol at asking me whether i was at the meeting..  your head is all messed up pal.. lol


----------



## Agentm

lemontree said:


> I dont see any miracles happening agentm, AWE now have another 8mil in the first 25 minutes of trading today. So that brings their total to about 72 million shares now. It's funny how most of us will be making quite a decent profit, but everyone is still displeased cause there certainly would've been a bigger profit to be made in the future.




i was just curious this morning if any bidders came in, but as none appeared i think awe has the lot now..

plenty of opportunities in the future,, there is always the eka and aut share  for some punters..


----------



## AngusSmart

the question now i ask is to move into Awe? however they seem like a bunch of cowaboys who havent gotten much right lately except maybe this take over... or put what i have here back into Aut thru their share offer @ 75c

will hang onto them till the 9th and make my move late.


----------



## jancha

Agentm said:


> lol jancha, your just plain insulting and rude ...  never been anything else but that ..
> 
> your right jancha, i have supported adi and agreed with the direction the board took throughout.  if i didnt agree with the direction they moved i would have removed my capital immediately..
> 
> that doesnt make me biased.. i have too much at stake to be biased..
> 
> your painting me as something i am not jancha.
> 
> i have not given up the fort jancha, as i dont own it, the shareholders do, and one major holder just bought the fort up..   if a better bid came through and someone wanted the asset then i would say things would be different, but i cant see any bids other than awe atm..
> 
> all i am seeing is the awe shareholder take over the majority of shares at .42
> 
> its not something i particularly am happy about, and i have no ability to change the situation thats happened.
> 
> jancha , your one mixed up puppy hey..
> 
> btw lol at asking me whether i was at the meeting..  your head is all messed up pal.. lol




Lol Touchy touchy
I dont think calling you bias is being rude.
Mixed up puppy? Now who's being rude?
As i've said before you've been very imformative with ADI and i'm glad your still happy with managements sentiments but there's no way i'm mixed up as far as your sensitivity & loyalty to management.
Get over it


----------



## Agentm

lol angusSmart

awe is never to see a penny of mine!! i think a lot of investors will steer clear of them, and your correct in seeing their own performance is dismal thus far..

i am real curious on the aut share price,, 1.5% of the share traded on friday.. 

its got a wings after a 40% dilution hasnt it!!


----------



## basilio

An interesting ride with Adelphi.  

Like many other investors/punters I have bought into the stock and followed it courtesy of Agentum's excellent research and discussion. Thanks again.

This neat little takeover trick by AWE and the seeming compliance by current ADI Board members does leave a sour taste in my mouth. The first offer for ADI is a very light 40c a share. Immediately the price goes to 41c and tons of stock changes hands allegedly into hedge funds.

We then have an independent evaluation which puts a fair value of 61c a share. In fact everyone is aware that what was once a speculative venture is becoming a well and truly profitable operation. Real oil, real dollars.

*And now AWE comes back with a derisory 42c offer which is intended to pick up the millions of hedge fund shares that changed hands over the past few weeks. And the ADI Board seems to accept that the company the are supposed to represent is going to taken over for at least 50% less than a it's fair value*

Neatly snookered. The investors to date took the risks. The big boys take the profits.

Most  oil exploration companies  fall over before they make a buck.  It seems that most profits are made by the directors,  in the initial IPO and then trading the stock between promising drills and dry hole disappointments . And now when a company actually seems to have made a worthwhile discovery - it's neatly  swallowed up for a fraction of it's real value. 

I think this represents an abuse of market power.  I also think that if it is successful then it will be repeated with many other similar companies. It's just too good a lurk to be missed. That is not good news for investors who arn't in the big loop.

*And finally. I wonder why the current Board didn't have the courage to say that the final offer is quite inadequate; that the shareholders interests have been seriously damaged by the current play and that the actions of AWE in creating this situation are unconscionable.*


----------



## jancha

basilio said:


> An interesting ride with Adelphi.
> 
> Like many other investors/punters I have bought into the stock and followed it courtesy of Agentum's excellent research and discussion. Thanks again.
> 
> This neat little takeover trick by AWE and the seeming compliance by current ADI Board members does leave a sour taste in my mouth. The first offer for ADI is a very light 40c a share. Immediately the price goes to 41c and tons of stock changes hands allegedly into hedge funds.
> 
> We then have an independent evaluation which puts a fair value of 61c a share. In fact everyone is aware that what was once a speculative venture is becoming a well and truly profitable operation. Real oil, real dollars.
> 
> *And now AWE comes back with a derisory 42c offer which is intended to pick up the millions of hedge fund shares that changed hands over the past few weeks. And the ADI Board seems to accept that the company the are supposed to represent is going to taken over for at least 50% less than a it's fair value*
> 
> Neatly snookered. The investors to date took the risks. The big boys take the profits.
> 
> Most  oil exploration companies  fall over before they make a buck.  It seems that most profits are made by the directors,  in the initial IPO and then trading the stock between promising drills and dry hole disappointments . And now when a company actually seems to have made a worthwhile discovery - it's neatly  swallowed up for a fraction of it's real value.
> 
> I think this represents an abuse of market power.  I also think that if it is successful then it will be repeated with many other similar companies. It's just too good a lurk to be missed. That is not good news for investors who arn't in the big loop.
> 
> *And finally. I wonder why the current Board didn't have the courage to say that the final offer is quite inadequate; that the shareholders interests have been seriously damaged by the current play and that the actions of AWE in creating this situation are unconscionable.*




Thank you Basilio
Finally someone is seeing what im reading into it.
ADI management appear to be selling down the river.


----------



## AngusSmart

Agentm said:


> lol angusSmart
> 
> awe is never to see a penny of mine!! i think a lot of investors will steer clear of them, and your correct in seeing their own performance is dismal thus far..
> 
> i am real curious on the aut share price,, 1.5% of the share traded on friday..
> 
> its got a wings after a 40% dilution hasnt it!!




Yeah i think i will stay clear of them, as for Aut, i think sitting out and waiting for it to drop below the 75c offer would be a good idea. the dilution is huge, yet still holding above 80c just..




jancha said:


> Thank you Basilio
> Finally someone is seeing what im reading into it.
> ADI management appear to be selling down the river.





That they are, but i dont think there is anything they can really do about it.


----------



## jancha

AngusSmart said:


> That they are, but i dont think there is anything they can really do about it.




All a bit suss with the CR raising @ 25c to sophisticated investors a while back.
Seems like it's all about profit taking for the big boys.
What of those that bought in @ $1 in 2007?
I think the management stinks


----------



## Sdajii

It's a bit harsh blaming Agentm for what it going on. All he can do is call it as he sees it. Things have taken a turn for the worse, but that's not his fault, and shooting the messenger won't help. The reality is, AWE have very cleverly, perhaps underhandedly, and maybe even with some dodgy assistance, set things up so that they'll have over 50% of the company and thus be able to get their own way with everything. None of us wanted it, Agentm didn't plan or foresee it, but sometimes unfortunate events occur and things don't go as we'd planned.

If everyone who holds stood firmly together and refused to sell, sure, we'd be fine, but when there are more of them than there are of us, we just don't have a choice. If you're clearly outnumbered, sometimes it's better to retreat from the battle than be slaughtered, even if you would love the victory and deserve it.


----------



## jancha

Sdajii said:


> It's a bit harsh blaming Agentm for what it going on. All he can do is call it as he sees it. Things have taken a turn for the worse, but that's not his fault, and shooting the messenger won't help. The reality is, AWE have very cleverly, perhaps underhandedly, and maybe even with some dodgy assistance, set things up so that they'll have over 50% of the company and thus be able to get their own way with everything. None of us wanted it, Agentm didn't plan or foresee it, but sometimes unfortunate events occur and things don't go as we'd planned.
> 
> If everyone who holds stood firmly together and refused to sell, sure, we'd be fine, but when there are more of them than there are of us, we just don't have a choice. If you're clearly outnumbered, sometimes it's better to retreat from the battle than be slaughtered, even if you would love the victory and deserve it.




Sdajii Agree with what your saying but if your referring to me i'm not blaming Agentm for anything other than he (in my opinion) has been bias towards ADIs management decisions. Informative yes & very sensitive also.
The CR issue for sophisticated investors?
I think Agentm comments was something along the lines of it was good move to bring in new blood?
Agentm has'nt critised any of managements decisions which leads me to believe he's bias.
Maybe i should just ask Agentm if he was one of the sophisticated investors who picked up ADI shares 25c?


----------



## potchip

I don't see why the overt pessimism for AWE taking majority stake. Sure the board might get replaced, sure AWE might be self-interested, but at the end of the day, ADI is still an exploration company, as such their valuation is based on predicting the future. These talks of AWE pillage and plunder is quite moot given there needs to be further development, before AWE will be in a position to pillage and plunder. Without that, ADI is just a company holding lease in a gas promising land, hardly tangible assets...

The upside is still there. Just prior people talked about ADI being de-risked. What's de-risked here is there's no longer uncertainty on the gas potential and in a big way the management/strategic direction (it's pretty clear now doesn't need a visionary to show there's gas here..). The other part the operation which is Hillcorp will drill on. So what has changed? The gas is still there, the ops teams are still there, just 'potentially' the management, and the fear of these upside not all will flow back to public share holders in the normal waym (which, btw by the looks of things is longer term than many poster's patience..)..However AWE needs to grow the fruits before they can steal them!


----------



## estseon

Potchip,

the AWE appointed directors won't be looking after your interests if you stay invested and AWE has already signalled in its Bidder Statement that it may seek to de-list ADI's shares. Even if you can sell them over the counter or to AWE, the investment will be less liquid than it is as a fully listed security.

The ADI directors might have been able to secure loyalty and support in respect of more than 50% of the share capital in the hands of the public but, because of its 34% launchpad, AWE only need 25% of the outstanding shares. In a true democratic fashion, the takeover rules allow a minority to dictate to a majority. The rules should require AWE's votes on the launchpad shares to be disapplied until it acquires 50% of the outstanding shares.

There's nothing that can be done about the deficiency in the rules except to lobby the politicians. It won't help ADI.

I bought during the offer period, I did not sell. If less shareholders had sold, the directors might have concluded differently. Don't blame the directors for the actions of others over whom they have no control.

I don't see how it can be agentm's fault either. I have made a lot of money through listening to him.


----------



## curryinahurry

Hi folks
First post. I have been following ADI thread for quite a while. Made good reading. However I think at times like this it may be wtime well spent to send some key events info to the likes of Terry McCrain c/o Herald sun and maybe ASIC (big assumption if they will understand!!) on the basis that on the face of it the Directors behaviour is rather strange and possibly self rewarding.

Disclosure - holder of small parcel of ADI shares
Cheers


----------



## jancha

estseon said:


> Potchip,
> 
> the AWE appointed directors won't be looking after your interests if you stay invested and AWE has already signalled in its Bidder Statement that it may seek to de-list ADI's shares. Even if you can sell them over the counter or to AWE, the investment will be less liquid than it is as a fully listed security.
> 
> The ADI directors might have been able to secure loyalty and support in respect of more than 50% of the share capital in the hands of the public but, because of its 34% launchpad, AWE only need 25% of the outstanding shares. In a true democratic fashion, the takeover rules allow a minority to dictate to a majority. The rules should require AWE's votes on the launchpad shares to be disapplied until it acquires 50% of the outstanding shares.
> 
> There's nothing that can be done about the deficiency in the rules except to lobby the politicians. It won't help ADI.
> 
> I bought during the offer period, I did not sell. If less shareholders had sold, the directors might have concluded differently. Don't blame the directors for the actions of others over whom they have no control.
> 
> I don't see how it can be agentm's fault either. I have made a lot of money through listening to him.




Another one. Who is blaming Agentm for anything other than being bias to management?
Directors have helped AWEs quest imo.
Just look back at their CR & read their latest announcement & ask yourself if they could of handled it better?
You may have bought in at the right time but what of those who have been holding for years & having a base cost of 60-80c.
Im sure you would'nt be happy if you were one of those loyal holders who got screwed with the CR ect..


----------



## noco

Wish I had a crystal ball. Gonna hang in 'tll the death knock to see what happens. If no other offer is forth coming, then perhaps the only sensible thing left to do is to give in.


----------



## Agentm

Dear Sirs

ARC ENERGY Limited’s Takeover: Form 604 – Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Holder ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 advises that its current substantial holding in Adelphi Energy Limited (ASX: ADI) increased on 22 June 2010 from 37.975% to 46.293%.

Please see the attached Form 604 for further details.


----------



## AngusSmart

Just read that one now agent.. looks like they have it. and will have it very easily! and once again nothing any of us could do about it! the ship was sinking a while ago, yet we were unaware of their intentions.


----------



## jancha

AngusSmart said:


> Just read that one now agent.. looks like they have it. and will have it very easily! and once again nothing any of us could do about it! the ship was sinking a while ago, yet we were unaware of their intentions.




Yep looks like AWE only need around 4mil more to get over the line.
Oh well lets hope managements in EKA & AUT can look after the average share holders interests & not just their own.
ADI had the most posts on the ASF. R.I.P.


----------



## Kremmen

estseon said:


> the AWE appointed directors won't be looking after your interests if you stay invested and AWE has already signalled in its Bidder Statement that it may seek to de-list ADI's shares.




This is only partly true. The directors will be looking after AWE's interests, but if they have, say, 80% of the company, those interests (making profits) are mostly aligned with ours.

If they want to de-list, won't they need compulsory acquisition? That would require 90% and the longer they leave it, the less likely that 42c would be considered a reasonable price.


----------



## potchip

Kremmen said:


> This is only partly true. The directors will be looking after AWE's interests, but if they have, say, 80% of the company, those interests (making profits) are mostly aligned with ours.
> 
> If they want to de-list, won't they need compulsory acquisition? That would require 90% and the longer they leave it, the less likely that 42c would be considered a reasonable price.




Precisely. 50% and delisting is totally different. If anything AWE's statement achieved their aim to cause some panic amongst some investors to sell now. As I stated previously this is not a hostile takeover where the market value of a company is < than the market value of assets of a company, but the takeover happens due to debt issues. In that case there will be destruction of value due to asset sales. ADI's valuation is not based on tangible assets. AWE still need to complete the job to get what they paid for. How can AWE bled ADI dry? By voting to dispose of the land leases so AWE can pay the rent? LOL. Don't forget prior to the bid market valued ADI at 29c/s. If I am a short term holder, I get my return off the year, so what's the compliant? If I was a long term holder circa 07, I don't see why I would sell now.

Btw to see whether AWE achieve their target today, just monitor the queue to see if the buy-order decreases by a further 3.4 or so mil..

Disclosure, I don't hold ADI, not anymore anyway. And I consider myself one of those short-term quick buck guys, precisely the type some on this thread is hating on yet are ironically of the same mentality (ie oh my turn $0.1 to $1 scheme didn't quite work out but I made 0.3 per share I guess I need to complain about management not doing their job) If you are consider selling now, you were never in for the long haul anyway amiright?


----------



## estseon

Kremmen said:


> This is only partly true. The directors will be looking after AWE's interests, but if they have, say, 80% of the company, those interests (making profits) are mostly aligned with ours.
> 
> If they want to de-list, won't they need compulsory acquisition? That would require 90% and the longer they leave it, the less likely that 42c would be considered a reasonable price.




Read the bidder's offer (first) and the ADI directors' advice re the final offer.

Those wanting to hold for CGT purposes might find that they can do so for a few months regardless.

Those expecting to participate in any future value of the company may be disappointed.

I sold out yesterday for UK CGT reasons .


----------



## noco

At close of trading today as per ComSec, there were:-

8 buyers for 88,085,261 units and 41 sellers for 2,149,982 ranging from 42c to 60c.

Can anyone explain the ramifications on this variation between buyers and sellers?
Are the sellers still hopeful of attaining a higher price or are they being super optimists?


----------



## Kremmen

estseon said:


> Read the bidder's offer (first) and the ADI directors' advice re the final offer.



And what do you suggest I'll find there that has any relevance to my comment? The directors are bailing because they won't have control any more. (diddums)

Those expecting to participate in any future value of the company may or may not be disappointed. We don't know what will happen yet. (I think we'll have a better idea once the FY is over.)


----------



## Kremmen

noco said:


> Can anyone explain the ramifications on this variation between buyers and sellers?
> Are the sellers still hopeful of attaining a higher price or are they being super optimists?




The AWE buy order at 42c is big enough to consume every share on issue, so buyers below 42c are plain stupid and/or wasting their time.

The sellers above 42c are hoping that someone will buy from them at higher than the takeover offer. I guess they are working on the theory that it worked last time. ... or that's there's one born every day.


----------



## Hatchy

I sent off an email to Alex to clarify a point that bothered me. Decided to share:

what could be the outcome of AWE not getting to 90% from here: 
•	A company can be delisted on its request if the ASX agrees.  The ASX has discretion and we understand regards itself as having a duty not to deprive shareholders of a market for their shares. 
•	So without AWE getting to 90% it is very unlikely that the company can be delisted.  ASX may be prepared to allow de-listing if the minority shareholders agree. If Adelphi was to be de-listed, it will no longer be traded on ASX and becomes a private company.

Cheers
Hatchy


----------



## prgudula

ARC ENERGY Limited’s Takeover: Form 604 – Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Holder

ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 advises that its current substantial holding in Adelphi Energy Limited (ASX: ADI) increased on 23 June 2010 from 46.293% to 48.962%.

Please see the attached Form 604 for further details.


----------



## nioka

Kremmen said:


> The sellers above 42c are hoping that someone will buy from them at higher than the takeover offer. I guess they are working on the theory that it worked last time. ... or that's there's one born every day.




I control over 1,000,000 shares and am not one of the sellers. ADI is worth more than 42c. I wont be robbed without a fight. I'll see them in court if necessary. Maybe I was the one born that day but I hope there are enough of us born on different days with a fighting spirit.


----------



## adobee

I am fully out this morning and wont waste any more time on it.. the directors are out.. awe will block anyone else.. what else is there to wait for ..   I am moving into AUT & EKA I think this is where all the interest will no be headed..


----------



## philly

nioka said:


> I control over 1,000,000 shares and am not one of the sellers. ADI is worth more than 42c. I wont be robbed without a fight. I'll see them in court if necessary. Maybe I was the one born that day but I hope there are enough of us born on different days with a fighting spirit.




Hey Nokia, I'm still holding and I agree this ain't over yet. AWE will get their 50% but they need 90% before they can force me to sell. 



adobee said:


> I am fully out this morning and wont waste any more time on it.. the directors are out.. awe will block anyone else.. what else is there to wait for ..   I am moving into AUT & EKA I think this is where all the interest will no be headed..




Hey adobee don't take issue with what you have done and AUT & EKA do give us the opportunity to stay with the Sugarloaf.

Maybe I'm dreaming but what if someone [like HILCORP already committed to the EagleFord and cashed up after the deal with KK&R] made AWE an offer so good they couldn't refuse? I reckon they would sell out in a blink. And so would I at the right price which is a lot more than this crappy offer of 42cents.


----------



## jancha

philly said:


> Hey Nokia, I'm still holding and I agree this ain't over yet. AWE will get their 50% but they need 90% before they can force me to sell.
> 
> 
> 
> Hey adobee don't take issue with what you have done and AUT & EKA do give us the opportunity to stay with the Sugarloaf.
> 
> Maybe I'm dreaming but what if someone [like HILCORP already committed to the EagleFord and cashed up after the deal with KK&R] made AWE an offer so good they couldn't refuse? I reckon they would sell out in a blink. And so would I at the right price which is a lot more than this crappy offer of 42cents.




Philly you could have a point there.
Huntleys recommendation on AWE is a buy ( they got that part wrong so far) but as to the reasons why they are interested in taking ADI are 
A. To gain experience in the Shale gas for their Perth Basin interests or to repackage ADI & sell it at a better price.
Only holding a small parcel of them now.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> Philly you could have a point there.
> Huntleys recommendation on AWE is a buy ( they got that part wrong so far) but as to the reasons why they are interested in taking ADI are
> A. To gain experience in the Shale gas for their Perth Basin interests or to repackage ADI & sell it at a better price.
> Only holding a small parcel of them now.




awe is performing pretty bad atm

7.5 mill exit today and the sp is screwed

huge exit for sure there and in one big hurry


----------



## Agentm

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD:  News ) announced it has signed joint venture deal with U.S. subsidiary of Reliance Industries Ltd. Closing is expected within five business days.

Under deal, Pioneer will sell 45% interest in about 212,000 net acres leased by the company in Eagle Ford Shale play for $1.15 billion. Reliance will pay $266 million in cash to Pioneer and will pay an additional $879 million to carry Pioneer's share of future drilling costs.

Reliance has also entered into joint venture deal with Pioneer's existing partner in Eagle Ford Shale play, Newpek LLC, for about $210 million. Under deal, Reliance acquires 95,300 net acres of leasehold held by Pioneer.


In addition to funding drilling obligations, Reliance has agreed to fund 75% of Pioneer's portion of drilling costs until the $879 million of drilling carry is fully utilized. Pioneer and Reliance have agreed to joint venture development plan which forecasts drilling of 26 horizontal Eagle Ford Shale wells during June through December 2010, increasing to 70 wells in 2011, 120 wells in 2012 and 140 wells in 2013.

Based on joint venture development plan, Pioneer's net production in Eagle Ford Shale is expected to increase from an average of 2,000 barrels oil equivalent per day or BOEPD in 2010 to a range of 32,000 BOEPD to 41,000 BOEPD in 2013. With the addition of ramp up in Eagle Ford Shale drilling, the company now expects production growth over this same period to be 15+% per year.


----------



## nioka

The latest top 20 shows some unexpected and interesting new names.

ANZ nominees have gone from 1,910,055 to 6,837,754

Weresyd slf a/c new at 4,885,722

Harbour Nominees sl a/c new at 4,885,722

Comsec Nominees new at 4,887,623.

(copied from another forum with permission)


----------



## philly

Agentm said:


> awe is performing pretty bad atm
> 
> 7.5 mill exit today and the sp is screwed
> 
> huge exit for sure there and in one big hurry




The hunter could become the hunted lol
I reckon I'll offer  a share

AWE seems to hold some good acreage in the Perth Basin, NZ and Yemen yet the SP is on a big slide
Maybe the market thinks it won't get all of ADI after all and management has stuffed up again
Time will tell
This is far from over IMO


----------



## prgudula

ARC ENERGY LIMITED LEVEL 4, 679 MURRAY STREET WEST PERTH 6005 AUSTRALIA

ASX Announcement
June 25, 2010
ARC ENERGY LIMITED ACHIEVES CONTROL OF ADELPHI 

Further to our announcement of 21 June 2010, ARC Energy Limited* (“AEL”) is pleased to announce that it has achieved a 51.2% ownership of Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”).

AEL’s offer is compelling and AEL urges Adelphi shareholders to accept the offer for the following reasons:
1. AEL’s 42 cents per Adelphi Share Offer is fully priced and final;
2. Adelphi’s Directors have unanimously recommended that, shareholders who are concerned about being minority shareholders in Adelphi controlled by AEL, should accept the AEL offer;
3. AEL now controls Adelphi and Board transition arrangements will be pursued;
4. Adelphi directors have unanimously indicated that they will be accepting the AEL offer for their shares and options;
5. It is highly unlikely an alternative bid can emerge as AEL owns over 50% of Adelphi; and
6. If you do not accept AEL’s compelling offer you will be a minority shareholder in a controlled company, with the following significant future risks:

 Lower trading liquidity once the offer lapses;
 Likelihood of a lower trading price once the offer lapses; and
 Potential for dilution from any future capital requirements by Adelphi.

The AEL Offer is scheduled to close on Friday 9 July 2010. Adelphi shareholders can immediately accept the AEL Offer by selling their Adelphi Shares on market to Macquarie Securities, acting on behalf of AEL.
Adelphi shareholders who have questions on AEL’s Offer should contact the AEL Offer Information Line on 1300 086 730 (toll free) (callers within Australia) or +61 3 9415 4198 (callers outside Australia).

For further information please see our website www.awexplore.com or 
contact:

Bruce Wood Garry Marsden
Managing Director Corporate Development Manager
AWE Limited garry.marsden@awexplore.com
Phone: +61 2 8912 8000 Phone: 0400 040 106
* A wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited


----------



## nioka

prgudula said:


> ARC ENERGY LIMITED LEVEL 4, 679 MURRAY STREET WEST PERTH 6005 AUSTRALIA
> 
> ASX Announcement
> June 25, 2010
> ARC ENERGY LIMITED ACHIEVES CONTROL OF ADELPHI
> 
> Further to our announcement of 21 June 2010, ARC Energy Limited* (“AEL”) is pleased to announce that it has achieved a 51.2% ownership of Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”).
> 
> AEL’s offer is compelling and AEL urges Adelphi shareholders to accept the offer for the following reasons:
> 1. AEL’s 42 cents per Adelphi Share Offer is fully priced and final;
> 2. Adelphi’s Directors have unanimously recommended that, shareholders who are concerned about being minority shareholders in Adelphi controlled by AEL, should accept the AEL offer;
> 3. AEL now controls Adelphi and Board transition arrangements will be pursued;
> 4. Adelphi directors have unanimously indicated that they will be accepting the AEL offer for their shares and options;
> 5. It is highly unlikely an alternative bid can emerge as AEL owns over 50% of Adelphi; and
> 6. If you do not accept AEL’s compelling offer you will be a minority shareholder in a controlled company, with the following significant future risks:
> 
> Lower trading liquidity once the offer lapses;
> Likelihood of a lower trading price once the offer lapses; and
> Potential for dilution from any future capital requirements by Adelphi.
> 
> The AEL Offer is scheduled to close on Friday 9 July 2010. Adelphi shareholders can immediately accept the AEL Offer by selling their Adelphi Shares on market to Macquarie Securities, acting on behalf of AEL.
> Adelphi shareholders who have questions on AEL’s Offer should contact the AEL Offer Information Line on 1300 086 730 (toll free) (callers within Australia) or +61 3 9415 4198 (callers outside Australia).
> 
> For further information please see our website www.awexplore.com or
> contact:
> 
> Bruce Wood Garry Marsden
> Managing Director Corporate Development Manager
> AWE Limited garry.marsden@awexplore.com
> Phone: +61 2 8912 8000 Phone: 0400 040 106
> * A wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited




Reads as an intimidating threat to me. It gets my hackles up and makes me more determined to hold on.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> Reads as an intimidating threat to me. It gets my hackles up and makes me more determined to hold on.




nioka, then who do you think will be bidding for adi? will it be a US based company or an another aussie one?

awe wants it, but i have not seen any other bid from anywhere.

if your holding on for another bidder then i would have thought over the last 48 hours their move would have been made.

i cant see it happening right now. i have held waiting to see if any appeared, but its evident to me the final bid by awe looks to be the winning bid.

just trying to understand where you see the bid coming from?


----------



## Sdajii

Agentm said:


> just trying to understand where you see the bid coming from?




Admittedly, he has nothing to lose by waiting another two weeks or so. Maybe there'll be another bid... probably not, but stranger things have happened, and he isn't going to get any less if he sells 10 days from now rather than today.

I wish more people shared nioka's attitude. It's very sad to have seen AWE just stomp on the (relatively) little guy. Mid July is going to be very interesting for ADI.


----------



## nioka

I'm not expecting another bid. I just want fair value. That value will be proven if the Sugarloaf field can be productive and it appears that it will be. For AWE to get benefit from ADI they have to allow the minority shareholders to benefit along side them. They can not discriminate. That's the law.

In the event that they reach 90% they have to pay a price at an acceptable value to make a compulsory aquisition of the remaining shares. That price has been established by an independant source at this stage at 60c.

I will fight as long as possible to obtain that price or better.


----------



## Sdajii

Good on you! More people should have that spirit, you have my admiration and I hope everyone who digs their heels in gets justice. Even 60c is robbery in my eyes, especially for the long term holders.


----------



## Kremmen

There are two issues apart from lack of other bidders.

1) Yes, AWE can control the company now, but they can't absorb it unless we all sell. If they want to get to 90%, they have to make it worth it for us. If they want to take over completely, there's a buyer for every share. At this price, there isn't a seller for every share. Thus, supply < demand.

2) CGT. Those (non-traders) who have invested in ADI in the past 6-9 months have a huge tax bill coming if they dispose of them now, and a much less huge tax bill if they can delay for a few months.


----------



## philly

nioka said:


> The latest top 20 shows some unexpected and interesting new names.
> 
> ANZ nominees have gone from 1,910,055 to 6,837,754
> 
> Weresyd slf a/c new at 4,885,722
> 
> Harbour Nominees sl a/c new at 4,885,722
> 
> Comsec Nominees new at 4,887,623.
> 
> (copied from another forum with permission)






nioka said:


> Reads as an intimidating threat to me. It gets my hackles up and makes me more determined to hold on.






nioka said:


> I'm not expecting another bid. I just want fair value. That value will be proven if the Sugarloaf field can be productive and it appears that it will be. For AWE to get benefit from ADI they have to allow the minority shareholders to benefit along side them. They can not discriminate. That's the law.
> 
> In the event that they reach 90% they have to pay a price at an acceptable value to make a compulsory aquisition of the remaining shares. That price has been established by an independant source at this stage at 60c.
> 
> I will fight as long as possible to obtain that price or better.






Sdajii said:


> Good on you! More people should have that spirit, you have my admiration and I hope everyone who digs their heels in gets justice. Even 60c is robbery in my eyes, especially for the long term holders.




I agree with all of you. I got into ADI in 2006 by seeking out information and reading forums like this [ thanks agentm] I don't plan to sell out without a fight. I am an investor and I will fight for a fair price for my shares. ASF ADI HOLDERS UNITED


----------



## AngusSmart

So what's everyones opinion on whats to happen if we dont accept their offer and choose to hang onto our shares? surely they will still have to kick on under instruction of hilcorp? and keep whatever agreement they have with the JVP. and it would be business as usual, just under new management.. which we know that management might not be the best..


----------



## philly

AngusSmart said:


> So what's everyones opinion on whats to happen if we dont accept their offer and choose to hang onto our shares? surely they will still have to kick on under instruction of hilcorp? and keep whatever agreement they have with the JVP. and it would be business as usual, just under new management.. which we know that management might not be the best..




There seems to be all this bad press [mainly coming from AWE] about being a minority shareholders, but hell have'nt we always been the little players here because AWE has always held a third of the shares.
The loss we suffer is the loss of a good BOD although I still think they gave up meekly on this bid. Increasing the bid by 2 cents is hardly a compelling reason to abandon ship especially when 2 weeks before a fair price was 61 cents
Until AWE gets a 90% interest they can't force us to sell. In the meantime the new BOD are duty bound to progress the company. AWE will have to develop the Sugarloaf and don't forget about Yemen. Hilcorp is a private company motivated by profit it isn't going to sit around playing games with AWE. It is committed, cashed up and ready to drill more and more wells. Any further discoveries are going to add to the SP which is what the remaining holders want.
Until AWE achieves 90% [and there is no certainty they will given that not all holders are prepared to sell at 42 cents] I can't see any downside
Open to consider any other views. Cheers


----------



## noco

AngusSmart said:


> So what's everyones opinion on whats to happen if we dont accept their offer and choose to hang onto our shares? surely they will still have to kick on under instruction of hilcorp? and keep whatever agreement they have with the JVP. and it would be business as usual, just under new management.. which we know that management might not be the best..




I'm hanging in untill the due date and sell the day before. IMHO the sp could drop after the offer closes 9th July.


----------



## Agentm

noco said:


> I'm hanging in untill the due date and sell the day before. IMHO the sp could drop after the offer closes 9th July.




bingo


nice to see there is some reason here..

awe have bidded higher than the comparative value of aut and eka.   and in all likelihood, like it or not, post the offer date the share will trade lower

all this talk about rallying people to hold out has never come with the disclaimer that a lower price would in all likelihood occur post the expiry of the offer

i would love to see some of these guys actually convince me that the adi sp will rise post the offer date..

when adi is currently on a way higher trading peg to the jvp partners right now, how can it climb even higher post the offer??

open question nioka, and a very fair one..  and you know i am holding a huge bundle right now..

please make it clear to me how it will happen..


----------



## nioka

Agentm said:


> bingo
> 
> 
> nice to see there is some reason here..
> 
> awe have bidded higher than the comparative value of aut and eka.   and in all likelihood, like it or not, post the offer date the share will trade lower
> 
> all this talk about rallying people to hold out has never come with the disclaimer that a lower price would in all likelihood occur post the expiry of the offer
> 
> i would love to see some of these guys actually convince me that the adi sp will rise post the offer date..
> 
> when adi is currently on a way higher trading peg to the jvp partners right now, how can it climb even higher post the offer??
> 
> open question nioka, and a very fair one..  and you know i am holding a huge bundle right now..
> 
> please make it clear to me how it will happen..




I'll return the question with a question.

1. What will the SP of EKA be when Hillcorp are repaid the costs of drilling and wells are producing. 
2. What will the SP be for AUT at the same time.
3. What would you expect ADI to be worth at that same time.

We invested in ADI to get the benefit of an oil and gas find. We accept the risk of no find no value. There is a find and the size of that find will determine the value of that find.

I will not be bullied by anyone or anything and that is what AWE are trying on. In my lifetime I have fought bigger industrial battles than this so it doesn't worry me to have to take them on. They can buy me out, but not for 42c. They won't bully me out. Their last message was pure bully bulls^#>t.


----------



## bazollie

Well, from a long suffering shareholder I cannot see any resolve from here. 

AWE have controlling interest now, they hold enough shares to form a blocking bid from potential suitors, and the roll over of the new financial year for newish shareholders to book their profit in 2010-2011 financial year makes it a given!!

I have stuck with ADI for a number of years through CR's, GFC, Oil Spills in the Gulf- you name it! I really did think that after Hilcorp's involvement we would all propser long term. The holdings that AWE have had since the ARC demerger has been against us ( even though I failed to realise) I always thought that ADI would eventually kick the goals, dot the "I's" and all the other buzz words you want to use. Well , my quest to turn a 40 cent share into a $4 share has been shattered by the ADI Major Shareholder. 

I have sold out today , and even though I have failed to materialise a large profit, I have realised a lot of cash that I can convert into other stocks that are truly undervalued at the moment. 

I can moan and complain for the next 2 months about ADI but guess what? The price stands- 42 cents and move on. We all have different reasons for investing and buying and selling in various times and cycles, I am now into other stocks that I believe will return me over 40% in the next 6 months. 

I am not going to stick around and pretend that I will make a difference to AWE and their quest to snaffle a potential cash box. Between a good friend of mine and myself our combined stockholdings would have been easily in the top 20. 

I am moving on to make money in other places, and preferably in stocks that don't have major shareholders who will have my ba$ls in a vice!!

Regards and good luck to the few remaining ADI holders!

Bazollie


----------



## Kremmen

Agentm said:


> awe have bidded higher than the comparative value of aut and eka.   and in all likelihood, like it or not, post the offer date the share will trade lower



ADI got pushed ahead and (if we were to ignore CGT) it would be better to simply switch to EKA and AUT. However, those who are prepared to switch out at 42c are the ones doing so.

Who will sell after the offer expires? If the remaining shareholders are ones such as nioka who won't accept 42c, there will be no sellers below that. Given a random spread of shareholders, or a situation in which AWE was buying some arbitrarily smaller parcel of shares, you'd expect the price to fall. But the remaining ADI shareholders will not be a random sampling, they will be, by definition, the group of people who've decided not to sell at 42c.

Seems to me that the most logical (and some people aren't logical, or might panic, or suddenly need to liquidate for some real-life reason) result is a stock which doesn't trade, with buyers sitting below 42c and sellers sitting above. If that happens, AWE have to decide whether to encourage those minority holders to sell (i.e. them offer more) or wait it out. ... and the longer they wait, the more the value will rise.


----------



## Agentm

nioka said:


> I'll return the question with a question.
> 
> 1. What will the SP of EKA be when Hillcorp are repaid the costs of drilling and wells are producing.
> 2. What will the SP be for AUT at the same time.
> 3. What would you expect ADI to be worth at that same time.
> 
> We invested in ADI to get the benefit of an oil and gas find. We accept the risk of no find no value. There is a find and the size of that find will determine the value of that find.
> 
> I will not be bullied by anyone or anything and that is what AWE are trying on. In my lifetime I have fought bigger industrial battles than this so it doesn't worry me to have to take them on. They can buy me out, but not for 42c. They won't bully me out. Their last message was pure bully bulls^#>t.





nioka

i gather your not able to answer just a simple question.. why is that?

i am not asking from you anything other than a very simple answer. to a very fair question.. please dont reply with hypotheticals, or questions to me on future hypotheticals... the current takeover is not a hypothetical, its a straight out buyout. real, tangible and imminent .  i am a substantial holder and here is the question for you once more... as you are not making it very clear to the people you are trying to rally that there is a massive risk that post the expiry date of the offer..JULY 9....  the sp in all likelihood will tank bigtime downwards..

so if you could please just forget your personal views on bullying, and we all get that your not happy, the message is well received.. just focus on the very important question, you cant ignore the consequence of the expiry date..

*when adi is currently on a way higher trading peg to the jvp partners right now, how can it climb even higher post the offer?? 
*



tia





bazollie said:


> Well, from a long suffering shareholder I cannot see any resolve from here.
> 
> AWE have controlling interest now, they hold enough shares to form a blocking bid from potential suitors, and the roll over of the new financial year for newish shareholders to book their profit in 2010-2011 financial year makes it a given!!
> 
> I have stuck with ADI for a number of years through CR's, GFC, Oil Spills in the Gulf- you name it! I really did think that after Hilcorp's involvement we would all propser long term. The holdings that AWE have had since the ARC demerger has been against us ( even though I failed to realise) I always thought that ADI would eventually kick the goals, dot the "I's" and all the other buzz words you want to use. Well , my quest to turn a 40 cent share into a $4 share has been shattered by the ADI Major Shareholder.
> 
> I have sold out today , and even though I have failed to materialise a large profit, I have realised a lot of cash that I can convert into other stocks that are truly undervalued at the moment.
> 
> I can moan and complain for the next 2 months about ADI but guess what? The price stands- 42 cents and move on. We all have different reasons for investing and buying and selling in various times and cycles, I am now into other stocks that I believe will return me over 40% in the next 6 months.
> 
> I am not going to stick around and pretend that I will make a difference to AWE and their quest to snaffle a potential cash box. Between a good friend of mine and myself our combined stockholdings would have been easily in the top 20.
> 
> I am moving on to make money in other places, and preferably in stocks that don't have major shareholders who will have my ba$ls in a vice!!
> 
> Regards and good luck to the few remaining ADI holders!
> 
> Bazollie





with arq previously, i think the relationship of a blocking stake was always a positive for adi.. i recall it being mentioned many times back then,,  with awe buying out arq the playing field changed.. i was pretty concerned.. most of last year my major concern was whether awe would take out adi in the .06 region.  i gather they had cold feet then as the resource was yet to be defined or proven,, so a higher risk then, but each day the play was further derisked the better the possibility of an awe buyout..

good luck bazza. and i agree its disappointing the bid came through before some long term value could have been achieved.. feel the same myself..






Kremmen said:


> ADI got pushed ahead and (if we were to ignore CGT) it would be better to simply switch to EKA and AUT. However, those who are prepared to switch out at 42c are the ones doing so.
> 
> Who will sell after the offer expires? If the remaining shareholders are ones such as nioka who won't accept 42c, there will be no sellers below that. Given a random spread of shareholders, or a situation in which AWE was buying some arbitrarily smaller parcel of shares, you'd expect the price to fall. But the remaining ADI shareholders will not be a random sampling, they will be, by definition, the group of people who've decided not to sell at 42c.
> 
> Seems to me that the most logical (and some people aren't logical, or might panic, or suddenly need to liquidate for some real-life reason) result is a stock which doesn't trade, with buyers sitting below 42c and sellers sitting above. If that happens, AWE have to decide whether to encourage those minority holders to sell (i.e. them offer more) or wait it out. ... and the longer they wait, the more the value will rise.




i think the question is who will buy from you after the bid has expired..

how many will place their hard earned capital into a share that imho will not be managed with any objective of making adi seem valuable, that would be self defeating..

will you be buying adi post the buy out expiry date kremmen?


----------



## philly

noco said:


> I'm hanging in untill the due date and sell the day before. IMHO the sp could drop after the offer closes 9th July.






Agentm said:


> bingo
> 
> 
> nice to see there is some reason here..
> 
> awe have bidded higher than the comparative value of aut and eka.   and in all likelihood, like it or not, post the offer date the share will trade lower
> 
> all this talk about rallying people to hold out has never come with the disclaimer that a lower price would in all likelihood occur post the expiry of the offer
> 
> i would love to see some of these guys actually convince me that the adi sp will rise post the offer date..
> 
> when adi is currently on a way higher trading peg to the jvp partners right now, how can it climb even higher post the offer??
> 
> open question nioka, and a very fair one..  and you know i am holding a huge bundle right now..
> 
> please make it clear to me how it will happen..




Like nioka, I'm a holder hanging out for a fairer price but I can why noco and agentm think that the SP could drop after the closure of the offer

On 17/5/10 when AWE announced it's 40 cent bid for ADI.
The previous [14/5/10]  closing prices for the JVP were ADI 28cents, AUT 80cents and EKA .195cents.

Since that time these annoncements have effected  all the JVP
on 4/6/10 the 30 day production figures for Morgan #1H and Easley #1H were released
on 8/6/10 the initial production rates for Grande Rancho #1 were released

At cob on 25/6/10 the closing prices of the JVP [compared to 14/5/10] were ADI 42cents [up 50%], AUT 81cents [steady] and EKA 22cents [up 12%]

There is a premium built into the ADI SP that the others don't have so the SP can drop when the offer closes.
IMO it shouldn't give it all up because of the positive announcements made since the bid.  I would think a SP in the low 30's or thereabouts 
Also AWE would want to keep the SP up otherwise it will immediately be losing value with its acqusition. 
And there won't be as much shares being traded after the bid closes.
Given that a new bidder is unlikely [I wish HILCORP and KK&R would have a go] the only way the SP can hold ground is more positive news from the wells, but when this comes will also be relevant. The sooner the better for all us holders. In the meantime I will reconsider my exit strategy. 
Thank you all for your thoughts


----------



## Agentm

philly

anyone can do as they wish in this takeover, but why cant the ones who urge holding out not discuss any possibility of a downside in their less than convincing ranting of bullying ?

i think its a fair question to ask.. and i am very curious as to whether those advocating holding can put forward a very compelling and fair answer as to how the adi wont tank past the expiry date, as i said, i have a good holding in adi and i am waiting for some clear answers here.. 

always in for better value, but where is the clarity here, is someone just guessing or wishing for a higher price on adi here? or can someone post up how the adi price will rise immediately post the july 9 deadline?


----------



## philly

Agentm said:


> philly
> 
> anyone can do as they wish in this takeover, but why cant the ones who urge holding out not discuss any possibility of a downside in their less than convincing ranting of bullying ?
> 
> i think its a fair question to ask.. and i am very curious as to whether those advocating holding can put forward a very compelling and fair answer as to how the adi wont tank past the expiry date, as i said, i have a good holding in adi and i am waiting for some clear answers here..
> 
> always in for better value, but where is the clarity here, is someone just guessing or wishing for a higher price on adi here? or can someone post up how the adi price will rise immediately post the july 9 deadline?




agentm
I concede that there is nothing I can post to say the SP will rise post 9 July. The reality is as you and nokia both say the SP could fall post 9 July
As I said in my previous post there is a subtantial premium built into the offer price so when the offer closes the premium will disappear.
I am re-assessing my position and I am leaning more towards selling just prior to 9 July


----------



## jancha

philly said:


> agentm
> I concede that there is nothing I can post to say the SP will rise post 9 July. The reality is as you and nokia both say the SP could fall post 9 July
> As I said in my previous post there is a subtantial premium built into the offer price so when the offer closes the premium will disappear.
> I am re-assessing my position and I am leaning more towards selling just prior to 9 July




I would say with CGT quite a few more ADI shares will be sold as of the 1st of July.
Personally i'm disappointed as i've been holding a few years now and was hoping for a better result also.
None the less i've sold the majority of my ADI shares and kept a small portion in case of a miracle.
I'm leaning towards a dip after the 9th but i"m puzzled as to why ANZ nom has increased its holdings as well Comsec ect coming on board.
That must be a positive for holders but can someone explain as to why the interest and increase with them?


----------



## Hendeus

Hi folks,

I've been watching this for a while now and would like to throw my 2 cents on the matters.

I think everyone needs to thing logically and put themselves in AWE's position - why would they buy into ADI if their sole purpose was to not make a buck? Clearly, if the value of the SP goes down, they are at a loss too and a significant one for that matter given their size of the pie. Keep in mind that they wanted to purchase 90% of ADI's issued shares, why/how could a publicly listed AWE privately run a company? It can't. What it can do (and I assume is a potential move apart from running ADI with business as usual) is to do a share offer placement. I.e. x AWE shares for x ADI shares. That way with a lower SP, it makes a bigger gain. The value of ADI is therefore is diluted within AWE. Note however, the overall value would still equate (in the long run) greater than 42 cents - everyone including AWE is a winner but with AWE a bigger winner in this cases. 

In order for that share placement to work, they need to justify a fair trade value to occur. If the SP goes down post 9th July, they may instigate a lower trade giving AWE greater value however, I can't see this happening given independent reports which have a higher target value. It would be hard for them to justify such an action as there is potential for class action suit from minority shareholders (which includes firms far larger than AWE) as there is clear information publicly available now demonstrating a higher value of the ADI shares. 

The other possibility for AWE's move is that they want to run ADI with business as usual. All they wanted given their large stake is to have control of the board. I would too if I had more than 50% worth of shares. They clearly know ADI is undervalued. For them, this was a project decision with a clear benefit realisation target for x dollars investment to turn it into x more dollars. Surely change of board is a risk, but for AWE, it is in their best interest. Maybe it will be the best interest for all of us considering their size and management experience in comparison to ADI. 

In summary, AWE is trying to make some cash. Right now, it is intimidating to see a large ownership of ADI go into their hands therefore people are flocking out. Great news for AWE as the more they buy, the more they will make. Not sure what the short term implications are for other share holders but in the long run, there is still value IMO. Remember, BoD have a defined set of rules and regulations for their job within a LISTED company. They should be doing their best for their shareholders whoever that may be.

Disc. I hold ADI shares.


----------



## AngusSmart

i would like to know, does Adi currently have any contracts with hilcorp? do they have a certain amount of wells they have to participate in? surely if the above to are a yes, the price should eventually increase if AWE actually run the company similar to how its been run? you'd think if they were trying to delist this company and gain over 90% control they'd want to to turn over money like Hendeus has mentioned above

Or what else could be on their plan?


----------



## Hatchy

Here's my thoughts - dyor. 

AWE have a lot of cash and a 200mil unused debt facility. If they get ADI, they'll go after the others. 

AWE love to spin off companies and then buy them back later on. 

Piece these two together and you have a spin off that encompasses some classy eagleford acreage - that will make a tidy profit no doubt. 

Yes Agentm I too believe we'll be seeing lower prices post close of offer. I think that's normal market psychology. It would be odd not to have a few people go 'oh crap offer's closed, time to liquidate'. I do think that we'll also be seeing considerable numbers sold come wednesday through friday.

I think people should make up their own mind's - but don't be concerned about ADI being run into the ground - because it's only a minor player in the JVP I can't see that happening, it's not in control of the throttle. I do believe there is a clause that lets ADI get out of participating in a well, but then it forfeits share in profits of course - now nobody in their right mind would do that. What is to be concerned about is AWE's threat of causing dilution. AWE's people on the ADI board can cause capital to be raised whenever they see fit. This can (correct me if i'm wrong) be completely taken up by AWE. The way I see it, if AWE get's close to 90%, they could raise capital, dilute everyone else and then sneak in above the 90% - wouldn't put it past them to do this. 

Time for everyone to have a long hard think about what to do.


----------



## Agentm

AngusSmart said:


> i would like to know, does Adi currently have any contracts with hilcorp? do they have a certain amount of wells they have to participate in? surely if the above to are a yes, the price should eventually increase if AWE actually run the company similar to how its been run? you'd think if they were trying to delist this company and gain over 90% control they'd want to to turn over money like Hendeus has mentioned above
> 
> Or what else could be on their plan?









Hatchy said:


> Here's my thoughts - dyor.
> 
> AWE have a lot of cash and a 200mil unused debt facility. If they get ADI, they'll go after the others.
> 
> AWE love to spin off companies and then buy them back later on.
> 
> Piece these two together and you have a spin off that encompasses some classy eagleford acreage - that will make a tidy profit no doubt.
> 
> Yes Agentm I too believe we'll be seeing lower prices post close of offer. I think that's normal market psychology. It would be odd not to have a few people go 'oh crap offer's closed, time to liquidate'. I do think that we'll also be seeing considerable numbers sold come wednesday through friday.
> 
> I think people should make up their own mind's - but don't be concerned about ADI being run into the ground - because it's only a minor player in the JVP I can't see that happening, it's not in control of the throttle. I do believe there is a clause that lets ADI get out of participating in a well, but then it forfeits share in profits of course - now nobody in their right mind would do that. What is to be concerned about is AWE's threat of causing dilution. AWE's people on the ADI board can cause capital to be raised whenever they see fit. This can (correct me if i'm wrong) be completely taken up by AWE. The way I see it, if AWE get's close to 90%, they could raise capital, dilute everyone else and then sneak in above the 90% - wouldn't put it past them to do this.
> 
> Time for everyone to have a long hard think about what to do.




any jvp member can opt out of any well they please.  they would lose their rights to that well

awe would participate in all events from now on.

what awe would not do well is promote adi, where is the rationale in doing that?

with the current directors and with new directors with different motivations (delisting) its obvious the company will be run as needed to that end.

my capital will obviously be removed from adi just as soon as it suits me.

but i will not have my capital in a company who's directors are primarily there to delist the entity..

i know far better places to invest my capital 

for those who have faith in the new awe management taking over and their goal of delisting adi.. best of luck

good luck if you think adi will reach $1   b4 they delist and good luck if it goes above the current bid price..

as many have missed the point of the on market offer and the meaning of the final offer, my own view hatchy is that post 9th july, the volumes will be very small if anything, a handfull here and there.. and the share will meander and tail off downwards and be forgotten.. 

just my own view..   i cant see any one having the desire to trade in the share and keep it in their portfolio.

all imho and dyor..


----------



## jetblack

My speculation was all wrong, them the breaks.

Can't blame AWE for taking advantage of circumstances whilst their offer is opportunistic , its also created an opportunity for me to shift my sizeable holding, in what would become an even more illiquid stock.

While investing in the spec end of town is risky  and although each new Well in the Eagleford derisks the play, the ironic thing is the unknown risk which I cant quite guage is AWE and its full tilt holding.

I will be looking to shift come the new financial year, and on reflection ,considering the market as a whole on its shakey direction AWE have done me a favour.

Agent M, thanks for the info you have given ,much appreciated.

I am still interested in the Eagleford but will just sit on the sidelines for now and whatch , as there will be many more capital raisings to come for the jvp's.

Adious, 

Argentina to win World Cup.


----------



## estseon

AUT looks pretty cashed up at the moment.

Thanks to BP (Amoco arm) and Obama, deep sea exploration isn't flavour of the month. Big Oil needs to be able to put reserves on balance sheet and the Sugarkane field is onshore, in Texas (do they allow Greens across the border? Or are Greens to Texans simply an over-cooked variety of limp cabbage) and trendy. There seems to be little exploration risk and gas/oil break-even prices are pretty low.

I don't personally feel that it's a time to be sitting on the sidelines. That doesn't mean reinvest the whole lot. Things are generally a bit rocky and chartists don't seem to be able to work out the charts at the moment. Volume is generally low. One major piece of bad news and investors might run for cover. There's no telling. But AUT's projects look sound.

I'm taking a cautious stance but re-applied some of the proceeds in EME and AUT. I feel that you need to be able to take a longer view in the current market which means being able to stand the sight of downward swings (if they occur) before recovery and to be able to hold through the swings (ditto).


----------



## nioka

I've decided to sell but at my price. My price is 60c which is still daylight robbery but a fair value according to the experts. I'm hoping enough will hold out for that price to force the hand of AWE. They are not the only ones that can deal hard. I think it is time to "hold em" the time to "fold em" is not here yet.

That is my opinion DYOR.


----------



## Agentm

jetblack said:


> My speculation was all wrong, them the breaks.
> 
> Can't blame AWE for taking advantage of circumstances whilst their offer is opportunistic , its also created an opportunity for me to shift my sizeable holding, in what would become an even more illiquid stock.
> 
> While investing in the spec end of town is risky  and although each new Well in the Eagleford derisks the play, the ironic thing is the unknown risk which I cant quite guage is AWE and its full tilt holding.
> 
> I will be looking to shift come the new financial year, and on reflection ,considering the market as a whole on its shakey direction AWE have done me a favour.
> 
> Agent M, thanks for the info you have given ,much appreciated.
> 
> I am still interested in the Eagleford but will just sit on the sidelines for now and whatch , as there will be many more capital raisings to come for the jvp's.
> 
> Adious,
> 
> Argentina to win World Cup.




best of luck jetblack, happy to share research with all.. and i hope all made some huge gains on the share

i particularly enjoyed the .6  to .42  run myself

even the derisked .22 run to to .42 from the awe bid was a great run also

agree on the cap raisings for the jvp and sitting it out,, currently in the same mode



estseon said:


> AUT looks pretty cashed up at the moment.
> 
> Thanks to BP (Amoco arm) and Obama, deep sea exploration isn't flavour of the month. Big Oil needs to be able to put reserves on balance sheet and the Sugarkane field is onshore, in Texas (do they allow Greens across the border? Or are Greens to Texans simply an over-cooked variety of limp cabbage) and trendy. There seems to be little exploration risk and gas/oil break-even prices are pretty low.
> 
> I don't personally feel that it's a time to be sitting on the sidelines. That doesn't mean reinvest the whole lot. Things are generally a bit rocky and chartists don't seem to be able to work out the charts at the moment. Volume is generally low. One major piece of bad news and investors might run for cover. There's no telling. But AUT's projects look sound.
> 
> I'm taking a cautious stance but re-applied some of the proceeds in EME and AUT. I feel that you need to be able to take a longer view in the current market which means being able to stand the sight of downward swings (if they occur) before recovery and to be able to hold through the swings (ditto).




lots of swings and with usa in a double dip, i am not keen to dabble in the shares other than the one i have a holding in.. (currently sbr only after taking all others into cash)

still researching the many on my watch lists, but not at all keen on anything out there atm..


----------



## Agentm

30 June 2010
The Manager
Australian Securities Exchange
Company Announcement Office
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Dear Sirs
ARC ENERGY Limited’s Takeover: Form 604 – Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Holder
ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited ASX: AWE) advises that its current substantial holding in Adelphi Energy Limited (ASX: ADI) increased on 29 June 2010 from 56.374% to 57.494%.


----------



## AngusSmart

It seems we well be getting a report like this up untill the 9th..

my guess is, about 67% they will end up with.. still unsure what i want to do, since Aut has taken a hit since its CR information has been mailed out.. now below the current CR offer if anyone was thinking to pick some up..


----------



## Agentm

the volume will increase dramatically in the last days..

aut has fallen day by day,  today its at the .75 cap raising price and a bit below.. 

i thought it would have arrived at .75 a lot quicker, some very lucky sellers out there when you look at what they got last week..

will be very intrigued to see the jvp prices strengths or weaknesses in the absence of the awe bid..  

wonder what the floor will be on this rout??


----------



## AngusSmart

Yeah i agree that the volume will increase near the end, there still seems to be a few who'd i think want to hold on beyond the offer since they bought in at much higher prices, i might just flip a coin to decide what to do, since i didnt really risk all that much when i jumped in.

 Re: JVP/AUT You'd think there would be some sort of drop once the offer expires, since there was a dramatic rise (AUT:60c to 80c) when the offer was put in place.. even with the news we've had since the offer they seem to add on average 5c per announcement, and lately drop off a few days after... time will tell for sure!

whoever got out at 88c was surely lucky, in it for the long term however so not all that concerned with Aut.. unless some takeover bid was to jump up outa no where....


----------



## Agentm

have to be some sort of record perhaps 

lol

GS left today.. 4.2 mill  

leaves nioka to switch the light off later on when he leaves..


----------



## Lert

Just had a call from Arc asking what my intentions were regarding the offer. I'm by no means a large holder so no idea why they should ring me. I said I would make a decision late next week.


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## noco

Lert said:


> Just had a call from Arc asking what my intentions were regarding the offer. I'm by no means a large holder so no idea why they should ring me. I said I would make a decision late next week.




Yes I had the same caller and expressed my total disatisfaction 
in the way the whole thing was handled.They absolute con artist in the first degree.


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## prgudula

ARC ENERGY Limited’s Takeover: Form 604 – Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Holder

ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited ASX: AWE) advises that its current substantial holding in Adelphi Energy Limited (ASX: ADI) increased on 30 June 2010 from 57.494% to 64.695%.


----------



## Hatchy

Well with 26 million going today, it's fair to say that this show is on it's last legs. I calculate that the dirty cockroaches have 80%. 

So. 
If they get 90% before the close next friday, will that mean that they shut it all down? 
If I don't sell before that time and I get caught after they've shut the shop, will that mean that they will send me a cheque?
Oh so many questions.


----------



## Agentm

2 July 2010
The Manager
Australian Securities Exchange
Company Announcement Office
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Dear Sirs
ARC ENERGY Limited’s Takeover: Form 604 – Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Holder
ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited ASX: AWE) advises that its current substantial holding in Adelphi Energy Limited (ASX: ADI) increased on 1 July 2010 from 64.695% to 80.467%.


SUGARLOAF AMI PRODUCTION UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on production at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Production Update

The following wells have reached the 60 day production milestones:-

Fractured Horizontal Length (ft) 
Total Gas Production (mmscf)
Total Condensate Production (bbls)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate (mmscfe/d)*

Morgan #1H 

4400
201
65,200
17.2

Easley #1H

2750
221
19,600
8.5

* The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.

These additional production figures continue to be very encouraging for the economics of the field. Further production updates for these wells will be provided in quarterly reports going forward.
ASX participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Aurora (ASX:AUT) – 10% (post farmout)
Adelphi (ASX:ADI) – 10% (post farmout)
Eureka (ASX:EKA) – 6.25% (post farmout)
Aurora also participates as a 50% WI holder in a larger area made up of an additional ~ 27,000 acres within the Sugarkane Field adjacent to Sugarloaf. Aurora is the only listed participant in these areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).


----------



## prgudula

On market takeover bid by ARC Energy Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited, for ordinary shares in the capital of Adelphi Energy Limited – extension of Offer Period.

As a follow up to the announcement of Monday 21 June 2010, Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 58 002 832 126 (Macquarie) announces that Macquarie will, on behalf of ARC Energy Limited ABN 74 009 204 031 (AEL), a wholly owned subsidiary of AWE Limited ABN 70 077 897 440 (AWE), extend the Offer Period (Offer Period) of AEL's on-market bid for the shares in Adelphi Energy Limited (Adelphi) by 1 week.

The Offer Period is now due to close at the close of trade on Friday 16 July 2010.

For further information please refer to the attached release by AEL.

The Adelphi Shares

The Adelphi Shares which are the subject of the Offer are all fully paid ordinary shares in  the capital of Adelphi which AEL does not already have a relevant interest in at the date of the Bidder’s Statement or such other shares which are issued during the Offer Period.

Immediately before the making of this announcement: 
• in so far as AEL is aware, there are 169,271,380 Adelphi Shares on issue, all of
which are quoted on ASX; and
• As at the close of trade on Thursday 1 July 2010, AEL had a relevant interest in
136,207,913 Adelphi Shares, which represent approximately 80.467% of all
Adelphi Shares on issue in the capital of Adelphi.
Signed on behalf of Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited.


----------



## toocool

So now that it looks more likely that they will get their 90% will there be any action in the AWE thread ??

I noticed someone called into Your money your call during the week and asked about AWE and the guests on the show pretty much hammed it.

Any thoughts ? 

Any holders in AWE ?

(note, im not)


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## jancha

toocool said:


> So now that it looks more likely that they will get their 90% will there be any action in the AWE thread ??
> 
> I noticed someone called into Your money your call during the week and asked about AWE and the guests on the show pretty much hammed it.
> 
> Any thoughts ?
> 
> Any holders in AWE ?
> 
> (note, im not)




Yeah started buying into on basis of their growth rate of a 1 rating with Huntleys valuing them at $3 ps on a buy.
Just out of interest what did the panel have say about AWE?


----------



## condog

imo the only good thing about awe is the price it got adi for. 

Put your money in AUT or EKA. I know which one i prefer.


----------



## AngusSmart

condog said:


> imo the only good thing about awe is the price it got adi for.
> 
> Put your money in AUT or EKA. I know which one i prefer.




I'm thinking of going a little into eka, where can i find a list of substantial holders for eka?

all i can find is

Substantial shareholder list at 30-09-09
Shareholder Name 	Share Holding 	% Shares Held
David Neate 	            6,000,000 	        5.20
Hugh Wallace-Smith 	   11,850,000 	        1.03


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## philly

I sold today and whilst not happy about the circumstances I did achieve a gross profit of 124%  I am cashed up now and looking for a new opportunity. Thank you to all posters for sharing your information and views regarding ADI. Special thanks to agentm you are a legend.
Hope to meet you again on another thread!


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## Ramblin Round

Bye bye Adelphi. That statement menas so much now in so many different ways. lol............................


----------



## WRONG'UN

I'm out too.
This has been one of my best ever trades, and I thank all contributors to the fantastic thread, particularly Agentm - as Philly said, you are a legend.


----------



## jancha

condog said:


> imo the only good thing about awe is the price it got adi for.
> 
> Put your money in AUT or EKA. I know which one i prefer.




Condog do you think you could possibly elaborate on why the only good thing about AWE is the price it got for ADI? 

I hold AUT as well but i dont think you should be able make such statements as "Put your money in AUT" without adding the risk factors!!


----------



## Sdajii

jancha said:


> I hold AUT as well but i dont think you should be able make such statements as "Put your money in AUT" without adding the risk factors!!




I think he means "AWE is a crap company without much good going for it apart from the part of its business which used to be called ADI and is undervalued"


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## jancha

Sdajii said:


> I think he means "AWE is a crap company without much good going for it apart from the part of its business which used to be called ADI and is undervalued"




I'm quite aware of what condog means Sdajii.
Reasons as to why it's a so called "crap company" would be more appropriate.



R.I.P ADI.


----------



## Agentm

jancha said:


> I'm quite aware of what condog means Sdajii.
> Reasons as to why it's a so called "crap company" would be more appropriate.
> 
> 
> 
> R.I.P ADI.




have to agree

i also cant agree a company is a crap company without any fundamentals to back it up..

some are saying $1.30 is the bottom for them others see it at the current price

its been interesting to watch


----------



## condog

I didnt say its a crap company, that would be defamatory. 

I said i dont like it. 

I have plenty of reasons including not being able to find anything menaingful that gives me a reason to invest other then the fact they got ADI for a bargain.

In terms of reccomending AUT, its not a reccomendation, just an opinion, as ADI holders know the deal and the play, they could easily migrate to EKA or AUT and know exactly what the situation is just by researching the directors and financials.

All the best, ultimately make your decisions, seek advice and DYOR.


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## jancha

Condog i dont mean to pick bones but when you post a comment like...
"Put your money in AUT"...(and without the risk factors)
Is that not you recommending to buy it??
Maybe if you stated that YOU would put your money in AUT it might have made a different meaning as in you personally would invest giving it your opinion but by leaving you out of it puts it in a different context.

Wonder if ADI will get the 90% by the closing date?
Only dribbles trading now.


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## Kremmen

jancha said:


> Wonder if ADI will get the 90% by the closing date?
> Only dribbles trading now.




Dribble, you say. Look again, mate. Millions of them going through. I wonder if they will get to 90% by COB today.


----------



## condog

Janca if you read the AUt thread you will  know why i think its a red hot buy. 

If i did it in here id be acused of cross promotion or some garbage. 

Perhaps more appropriate in here is why you guys think AWE is a buy with your ADI funds.


----------



## Hatchy

Well folks, it's been great to chat with you about ADI over the last few years. AWE by my calculations have snuck over 90% today, so that's it, show's over. Everyone pack up and head home. Party's closed. 

I sure hope that the Eagleford evokes a bit more response from the markets in the future. Too cheap on ADI is an understatement. 

I wonder if AWE will head for AUT next and consolidate their eagleford play.... Interesting times, watch out AUT, they'll probably offer 80c and claim it's a good deal and offer threats (instead of cash) like we were offered for ADI.

Many thanks to AgentM for the reports over the years. 
Thanks to Nioka for staying strong. Thanks also to seasprite and IJH.

Thanks to Jancha for offering very little apart from amusement and conflict. 

Over and Out.


----------



## condog

Hope your wrong on the AUt TO offer.

The Eagleford party is far from over, theres EKA, AUT, AZZ?? to name them, but also SEA in the Bakken shale and others.

Like to second that thanks to AGent for his never gro weary approach to EAgleford reporting.


----------



## Agentm

my research was free!!

plenty came on here and on hc and said it was all BS. and we have a fishy character constantly talk it down, but the fish was wrong as we all know..
lately it looks like the fish is some sort of investor in the play...

adi was gone for all money, gfc and oil at $30.  so anyone taking up the .06 adi got to, and made hay while the sun shined,, (like i did) ... then good for them..



azz...its in deeper (you know what) than a werribee duck. yet to have any economic flows in any wells. but i am watching closely, if anything comes up i would drop 100k into it in a heart beat.. but so far NIL.. needs to make a economic well then sell the lot pronto.. or just dilute to oblivion

Eka  its in sale mode, lets see who gets it, awe or aut.. you can make a few cents on it if you want atm,, but dont ignore the risks on oil prices..

AUT.. some severe dilutions, following some very difficult turnbull announcements, which imho have to be closely watched..

oil prices........  where to next.. i wont be trapped in a small cap explorer in any GFC ever again.. so until things become crystal clear to me, then i am staying in cash for a long time...

imho.. if your into equities..  take profit and be conservative.. its on a knife edge atm..


----------



## AngusSmart

90% and board changes already!!

a few announcements up on the asx today,

Thanks Again Agent! i hope you can keep us informed on Aut, and the eagleford in general.


----------



## Kremmen

I was so hoping this wouldn't happen. So long as they had less than 90%, we might have been able to drag out the takeover long enough for me to get discounted CGT. I'm sure they'll move to compulsory acquisition rapidly, so I'm out.


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## gerkin02

The compulary aquisition will take between 3 and 8 weeks,starting from monday the nineteenth of july.

All the best.


----------



## Bilja

Can someone run me through the compulsory acquisition process?

What price would they acquire at 42c? Or discount/premium by chance ??

Also, to get CGT exemption, is that calculated on a FIFO basis on units? What about if I bought some for a family member held < 1 yr?


----------



## vince3321

Unfortunately, I am among the loser on this one. I bought ADI about 2 year ago when prices were much higher than 42c. I lost about 10k Not sure how I can recoup this one. 

I also was a shareholder of Arc Energy before it was bought out by AWE. 

AgentM what do you think about BRU? Any good to keep?


----------



## Bilja

How will this compulsory acquisition take place......Refer the High Court handing down its decision in Giancarlo Gambotto and Anor v WCP Limited and Anor (1995).

_This proper purpose must not be exercised in an oppressive
manner. For the majority the expropriation of the shares of a minority cannot
be 'simply for the purpose of aggrandising the majority',11 nor 'merely in
order to secure for themselves the benefit of a corporate structure that can
derive some new commercial advantage'.12 Expropriation is only possible if it
is 'to secure the company from significant detriment or harm' such as to
eliminate a shareholder who is competing with the company (as was the case
in Sidebottom v Kershaw, Leese & Co),13 or where it is necessary 'to ensure
that the company could continue to comply with a regulatory regime
governing the principal business which it carries on'.

As well as the proper purpose test the other main issue discussed was that
of fairness. The majority discussed this notion briefly and held it involves
disclosure of all relevant information and also a fair price, which itself
involves a number of factors including the nature of the company and its
future prospects.18

nformation concerning the current and historical market prices of the
shares where they are applicable, the net book value of the assets, and the
value of the company both as a going concern and on a liquidation together
with any reports or appraisals prepared in relation to the alteration and
any firm offers for, or serious inquiries about the purchase of, the assets of
the company.

So in short, at what price will comp acq take place.....

REF: 

http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1106&context=blr_


----------



## philly

Bilja said:


> How will this compulsory acquisition take place......Refer the High Court handing down its decision in Giancarlo Gambotto and Anor v WCP Limited and Anor (1995).
> 
> _This proper purpose must not be exercised in an oppressive
> manner. For the majority the expropriation of the shares of a minority cannot
> be 'simply for the purpose of aggrandising the majority',11 nor 'merely in
> order to secure for themselves the benefit of a corporate structure that can
> derive some new commercial advantage'.12 Expropriation is only possible if it
> is 'to secure the company from significant detriment or harm' such as to
> eliminate a shareholder who is competing with the company (as was the case
> in Sidebottom v Kershaw, Leese & Co),13 or where it is necessary 'to ensure
> that the company could continue to comply with a regulatory regime
> governing the principal business which it carries on'.
> 
> As well as the proper purpose test the other main issue discussed was that
> of fairness. The majority discussed this notion briefly and held it involves
> disclosure of all relevant information and also a fair price, which itself
> involves a number of factors including the nature of the company and its
> future prospects.18
> 
> nformation concerning the current and historical market prices of the
> shares where they are applicable, the net book value of the assets, and the
> value of the company both as a going concern and on a liquidation together
> with any reports or appraisals prepared in relation to the alteration and
> any firm offers for, or serious inquiries about the purchase of, the assets of
> the company.
> 
> So in short, at what price will comp acq take place.....
> 
> REF:
> 
> http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1106&context=blr_



_

Bilja,
this isn't the forum for this type of question you really need to seek out expert advice.
AWE has extended its bid by a week and will now close this Friday 16 July 2010 so the 42 cents per share is still on the table if you want to take it._


----------



## Agentm

vince3321 said:


> Unfortunately, I am among the loser on this one. I bought ADI about 2 year ago when prices were much higher than 42c. I lost about 10k Not sure how I can recoup this one.
> 
> I also was a shareholder of Arc Energy before it was bought out by AWE.
> 
> AgentM what do you think about BRU? Any good to keep?




erik has been really confident on the canning

trojan are still backing it there

the part i dislike on the canning it the seasonal drilling aspect of it. in the wet you have to shut down

i watch the results a bit, but have not ventured into the share

pity you didnt add more adi in the .06 region..  could have averaged down..

cheers


----------



## skyliner

I must say im not happy that this can happen, it sucks you can spend years in a stock only to have it ripped from you at under fair value.


----------



## radioham6

WRONG'UN said:


> I'm out too.
> This has been one of my best ever trades, and I thank all contributors to the fantastic thread, particularly Agentm - as Philly said, you are a legend.




Yes ADI...... I sold out in late Jun. The most I've ever made on the market to date. May I thank all the contributors to this wonderful thread. Especially Agentm!  The forum has been a wealth of information especially this very thread, ( Thank you Joe) now it's time for another opportunity.


----------



## Bigukraine

after close of trade today ADI will no longer be quoted on the ASX 



:goodnight:engel:



no more flogging to be imposed on this poor beast :horse:


----------



## Agentm

radioham6 said:


> Yes ADI...... I sold out in late Jun. The most I've ever made on the market to date. May I thank all the contributors to this wonderful thread. Especially Agentm!  The forum has been a wealth of information especially this very thread, ( Thank you Joe) now it's time for another opportunity.




its ok.. happy to put forward some info on the eagleford.. and adi.. anyone jumping in or adding at .06 like i did will be extremely happy with their investment..

its been great to hear that others have made a few $$$ on the share..

love to see people make a killing on the stock market..

also totally agree.. thank you joe for the forum and allowing this thread to continue


----------



## OK2

Agentm said:


> its ok.. happy to put forward some info on the eagleford.. and adi.. anyone jumping in or adding at .06 like i did will be extremely happy with their investment..
> 
> its been great to hear that others have made a few $$$ on the share..
> 
> love to see people make a killing on the stock market..
> 
> also totally agree.. thank you joe for the forum and allowing this thread to continue




ADI came to my attention at .06 because of some raving mad man who made a lot of sense. I jumped on board in a small way only out of curiosity and did quite well out of it. Thanks Agentm.

Anyone game to put in a substantial buy order for ADI by the end of the day?


----------



## J&M

OK2 said:


> ADI came to my attention at .06 because of some raving mad man who made a lot of sense. I jumped on board in a small way only out of curiosity and did quite well out of it. Thanks Agentm.
> 
> Anyone game to put in a substantial buy order for ADI by the end of the day?




I would also like to thank Agentm I brought these at 18c1K,  26c1K, and 
415c 1k total expecting an up swing
Total spent 3k sold for 5k maybe not much for the experienced share traders here but WOW not bad for me 
re invested in AUT 
Thanks Agentm


----------



## AngusSmart

You could try buy them today @ .41 and tomorrow probably get a call from AWE about their .42 delisting offer..

i doubt you will pick up a whole heap at that price tho and /or cover brokerage..




J&M said:


> I would also like to thank Agentm I brought these at 18c1K,  26c1K, and
> 415c 1k total expecting an up swing
> Total spent 3k sold for 5k maybe not much for the experienced share traders here but WOW not bad for me
> re invested in AUT
> Thanks Agentm





Did a very similar thing, but 2k in at 28c and sold at 42/..

thanks Agent and all involved spreading the news.. *please jump over and continue on the AUT thread!!* still should have alot more to run there!


----------

