# CEL - Challenger Exploration



## System (30 March 2011)

Challenger Energy Limited (CEL) was formerly known as Sunset Energy Limited (SEY).

Previous discussion of this company can be found in the SEY thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19710

http://challengerenergy.com.au


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## philly (31 March 2011)

philly said:


> The last ASX announcement regarding the Triple Crown Prospect was back on 21-1-11. There was talk of preparing the well for fraccing but no news since. What is happening?
> 
> I suspect that there must be something stirring because in the past fortnight 2 new investors have lodged a Form 603 with ASX. A Queensland Super Fund has picked up a6.71% interest and a NSW Absolute Return Fund has picked up a 5.97% interest. Strange bedfellows. Watch this space.... any thoughts welcome.






CapnBirdseye said:


> Yes, it's good news to have a couple of funds involved.  I think Pitt St is related to Novus who were the broker for a recent placement.  If this is the case, then I'd be surprised if they weren't party to some good, reinforcement lets say of recent announcements.
> 
> It's been very quiet on the testing front, I'd dearly like to get a little news some time soon on progress/forward programme.  Maybe this Friday?  It may be that the next announcement is regarding new acreage.  If this is the case, I'd say we really are on to a good thing here.  After new acreage is secured we might start getting info regarding a test programme.
> 
> I'm holding CELO.




The last news regarding the Triple Crown Prospect was on 21-1-11 that is now 69 days ago. IMHO shareholders need to be better informed and up dated.


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## galumay (21 January 2013)

Does anyone know anymore about this stock? I have been given a 'tip' by a friend that works for the company and he is hopeful they are about to have a run up. He bought it at .20 a while ago - looks they fell after that to a low of round .08 and have been slowly rising again with a bit of a bump recently.

There seems to be some good news coming out of South Africa about their ground there and they have been 'pushed' by a guy called James Gerrish on the Finance News Network, looks like he is an senior advisor for Novus Capital. This is what he had to say/spruik about CEL,

Lelde Smits: "Finally gentlemen, if you were given $1 million for Christmas – what’s the first stock or sector you’d put it in to generate the greatest returns over 2013?"

James Gerrish: "I’ll put it on one stock and put it out on the line there, Challenger Energy Limited (ASX:CEL) is one I’ve been looking at for a long time- CEL- owner of the stock, I have a lot of clients in the stock, it’s a shale gas play, it’s just got some good news coming out of South Africa. If I had my choice I’d spread the $1 million around but if I had to put it on one name, it would be Challenger Energy, CEL."

Its not the sort of stock I would invest in, but I am considering a pure speculation/gamble play with some spare coin that I am prepared to lose!


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## bigbankerbroker (4 January 2014)

CEL has an application to drill for Shale Gas in the Karoo Basin (South Africa). The application is for 1 million acres around Cranmere CR 1/68, the only well in the entire Karoo Basin to flow significant gas to surface. In 1968, Cranmere CR 1/68 had flowed more than 8 million cubic feet of gas per day from a 158 foot (48 metre) shale interval. Large players such as Chesapeake, Statoil, Sasol and Falcon Oil & Gas have also moved in on the action. The US department of energy estimated that 485 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas resources could be hosted in the Karoo. CEL has a potential asset worth $1.9b with a current market cap of $33.79M. 
CEL has noted in its last announcement that they are looking to source a JV partner to help develop the asset. If this happens, and presuming that CEL retains 50% of the asset, and based on initial estimates, that leaves them with 4.25 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) With Bandu (partially owned by CEL) has a 10% share leaving CEL with 45% net. With net risked recoverable gas to CEL of around 3.8TCF and given that most gas sales are in the range of US$0.40-US$0.60 per MCF (or about $US500m per TCF), CEL has a potential asset worth $1.9b. 
I expect the share price to triple from 0.07 to 25 cents in the next few months.


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## galumay (4 January 2014)

bigbankerbroker said:


> I expect the share price to triple from 0.07 to 25 cents in the next few months.




Well unless the South African Government legislate to allow fracking it wont be worth anything. 

I do hold in my speccy portfolio in case they get lucky, but its been talked up for a long time with nothing yet.


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## System (13 May 2019)

On May 13th, 2019, Challenger Energy Limited changed its name to Challenger Exploration Limited.


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## willoneau (13 May 2019)

Interesting chart, but volume very low. With monthly volume not exceeding 2million shares and price below 10 cents would be very volatile to trade and more of a gamble trade at moment. imho


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## galumay (14 May 2019)

Not a squiggly line type, but its had a 40-1 consolidation recently, so make sure thats accounted for!


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## Cam019 (1 January 2020)

This is my top pick for the CY2020 tipping competition. Chart looking good with CEL up 250% since the 04/07/2019. See below:


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## galumay (1 January 2020)

It was in a trading halt for most of the 12 months proceeding July this year, its also had a 40 for 1 consolidation. If it goes up by 250% a few more times I may actually end up turning a profit on this speculative piece of crap! I bought a small parcel years ago for all the wrong reasons, a tip from someone else, a speculative bet that I had no probalistic insight on, in a sector I never put money into! 

I treat it as a reminder of how not to invest!!


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## Sean K (25 March 2021)

This looks a little bit interesting. A couple of highly prospective projects with some results out today indicating a large extension of the resource envelope in the Hualilan Project. Pretty high MC for what is basically an explorer. Maybe there's more to it.


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## Sean K (3 June 2021)

Looks like they'll be able to extend the current resource to the south through these channel samples in previous workings and exploration adits. Seems to be some upside if they can get some rigs down there and drill some holes.


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## Beaches (3 June 2021)

From the announcement today

_The sampling was undertaken using a rock saw to cut  and recover a continuous channel measuring approximately 40cm x 40cm, with sample weight averaging 4.8 kg per metre. Samples were logged, and submitted for assay with QAQC samples (blanks and standards) using the same procedure as drill core. The channel sample is analogous to a drill core sample, and it is expected that the data can be incorporated into a resource estimation in the same way as drilling results._​
_In  light  of  the  recent  results  from  this  program,  notably  the  broader zones  of  mineralisation  which appear to have been missed by the selective historical sampling, the program was extended to include channel sampling of all underground workings and exploration adits throughout the project including those located outside of the footprint of the known mineralisation._​​_Channel Sampling Program_​_The  channel  sampling  program  has  been  designed  to  allow  the  inclusion  of  the  component  of  the historical high-grade mineralisation which is up-dip of the Company's drilling in a resource estimate that  can  be  reported  according  to  JORC.   This  includes  the majority  of  the mineralisation within  40 vertical  metres  of  surface  and  the  extensions of mineralisation  up  into  the  hills  at  Cerro  Norte  and Cerro Sur.  _​

They are hoping to use the channel samples as drill cores for a JORC resource and if that comes off, would be the equivalent of another rig.

Currently with 5 drill rigs on site for a 20,000 program for this quarter (Q4 21). Another 3 rigs are planned to be brought in to make it 8 rigs for 30,000 metres in each of Q1, Q2 and Q3 FY22, for a total of 120,000 metres plus the channel samples.  The maiden JORC resource is due in Q3 22 and a PFS hopefully in Q4 22.







The recent $42mil cap raise fully funds them to PFS and has brought the price down from 0.36c to 0.29.5c currently for a market cap of $209mil.

Should present some good trading opportunities for the rest of the year.


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## Sean K (4 June 2021)

Beaches said:


> They are hoping to use the channel samples as drill cores for a JORC resource and if that comes off, would be the equivalent of another rig.




When I read this I questioned how it could be possible to include these samples into a JORC resource estimate. How can you tell the true depth, width, length of the mineralisation with a channel? Surely they need to drill it out to be able to create a model and have some fidelity of the grades over the entire ore body.


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## Beaches (4 June 2021)

kennas said:


> When I read this I questioned how it could be possible to include these samples into a JORC resource estimate. How can you tell the true depth, width, length of the mineralisation with a channel? Surely they need to drill it out to be able to create a model and have some fidelity of the grades over the entire ore body.




The channels are from the underground workings of the old mines and I am assuming they are vertical channels into the wall face rather than horizontal trenches. There will still be drilling in the area but I am assuming these channels will be small localised cores of the direct wall face area which will supplement the drilling cores and slightly reduce the drill meters required by the 8 rigs.

This is only my assumption and there is no confirmation in the announcements to date.


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## Sean K (16 June 2021)

This thing is definitely getting bigger with quite a long strike length, still open by length and depth. Lots of rigs on site with tons of results still to be announced. 

The grades they're getting don't seem to match up with the historical MRE for the project though. 627K @ 13.7g/t? Perhaps what they're drilling into now is just a different type of deposit.


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## Sean K (22 June 2021)

Wow, these guys have been smashed the past few weeks. The 16 June 'positive drilling results' smashed them. Obviously not that positive... 

As mentioned above the grades they're coming up with there just don't seem to fit the historical MRE. Maybe that's it. There's two types of ore bodies a high grade skarn and then an intrusion hosted material/porphyry. The original MRE must have focussed on the high grade area. Or, maybe that historic MRE (non-JORC) is crap.


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## Sean K (29 June 2021)

Found some support around .22c. 

They really need to confirm the high grades from the historic MRE, IMO. The non-JORC MRE is questionable until they drill a few more holes in that region for confirmed grades. 

The intrusion or porphyry zones are OK grades but lack widths for a porphyry. Needs to have a huge strike length. 

8 rigs running, but not many results coming out...


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## Sean K (30 June 2021)

You'd have to think 20-22c is long term support here. Will be interesting to watch. I don't trust the fundamentals at this stage.


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## Sean K (1 July 2021)

OK, I think these grades are pretty OK.    I take some of my skepticism back. But, it is 'rock saw channel sampling' whatever that is.


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## Sean K (1 July 2021)

I just still don't trust their concept of using these channel samples to create a JORC compliant MRE. If that's how the historical MRE was done, I'm a bit perplexed. 

I assume they're not drilling this area because the hills are a bit steep and they can't be bothered putting a track and a pad in somewhere...


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## Beaches (1 July 2021)

With 8 rigs now on site turning and 120,000m of cores to examine, there should be plenty of hard evidence over the next 3 quarters.

On another note, I got busy with year end stuff and missed the 22c entry. I would appreciate if everyone could sell their shares tomorrow so I can get the 22c entry.


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## Sean K (1 July 2021)

Beaches said:


> With 8 rigs now on site turning and 120,000m of cores to examine, there should be plenty of hard evidence over the next 3 quarters.
> 
> On another note, I got busy with year end stuff and missed the 22c entry. I would appreciate if everyone could sell their shares tomorrow so I can get the 22c entry.




I was waiting for the 20-22 support to firm before pulling the trigger for a short term chart trade. Missed a 20% jizzem.


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## Sean K (1 July 2021)

Missed a 34% jissem. 

I've been googling what 'rock saw trench channel sampling' means and trying to understand how this can lead to anything JORC compliant and can't find anything. I mean, 64m @ 28 g/t AuEq is obviously not a hole going down. Where the hell did they take it from? Cut into some old working veins from the 1800s that couldn't be done with 1800s tech? 

I just don't understand this deposit and this 'drilling' plan. It smells.


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## The Triangle (3 July 2021)

kennas said:


> Missed a 34% jissem.
> 
> I've been googling what 'rock saw trench channel sampling' means and trying to understand how this can lead to anything JORC compliant and can't find anything. I mean, 64m @ 28 g/t AuEq is obviously not a hole going down. Where the hell did they take it from? Cut into some old working veins from the 1800s that couldn't be done with 1800s tech?
> 
> ...



Below last capex raise price of 28 cents.  With this many rigs turning they will be pumping out the news flow and can afford to selectively dump good news on market.  Took a punt at 27.  Same price as 2 weeks ago. Certainly not a cheap company at 215 million.     But worth a short term trade like a TIE.   

Agree using questionable methods in a developing nation is not a good look.   Trench is just a super special directors special.    Can't see how far they are away from an updated resource.  Will stick it out to that point.


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## Sean K (24 July 2021)

The Triangle said:


> Below last capex raise price of 28 cents.  With this many rigs turning they will be pumping out the news flow and can afford to selectively dump good news on market.  Took a punt at 27.  Same price as 2 weeks ago. Certainly not a cheap company at 215 million.     But worth a short term trade like a TIE.




Back finding some support at .27, looks like a good entry to me with those 'bonanza' grades they announced on 1 Jul. 

Still, it's 'rock saw channel sampling'. 😕

Not sure how effective these 'man portable rigs' are to complete decent drilling into the hills. Maybe they should be taking complete rigs up by donkey in pieces and putting them together. Or, how about a decent track they can drive up to make a pad or two. I'm just a bit perplexed how doing a channel sample at what depth, say 5m?, can result in knowing the true dimensions of any deposit to complete a JORC MRE.


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## The Triangle (25 July 2021)

I am interested to see how the drilling progresses at their Ecuador leases.  It was flagged to start in June/July but suspect this has been pushed out to August/September.  Might be wrong.  

Reading a few old reports it looks like copper was maybe ignored by newmont years ago as they were focused on gold.   Could be very intetesting if there is something with 0.5% copper and 1g+ gold.  

Im a believer of picking up the scraps of big players.


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## Sean K (29 July 2021)

Finally some actual drill results I can sort of understand. Looks pretty good. 

It's the steep topo of the Hualilan Hills which is really getting in the way of them finding out what's going on under that particular region where they're ramping up those amazing grades listed above.  Plan seems to be to drill from the east into the hills and see what pops up. By the photos they've published though I don't understand why they can't build a decent couple of tracks up the hill to get some drills up there. They've got the cash to do so. Doing man portable drill rigs seems like a second rate plan to me. Unless they have some Quechuan Inca Trail Porters who can carry them, they could take a complete rig up each by themselves.


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## Sean K (3 August 2021)

My last chart had the bottom support level around .19-20c and I missed the entry. Poor me. :-( But, I bought some anyway as I do think they've got a lot of gold there, especially in the porphyry which is getting bigger. Can't trust these trench samples though, imo. Hopefully support at .25ish holds. Once the 'man portable' rig get up the hill, hopefully they can put a few holes into the right places. They could have helicoptered a couple of proper rigs up there, they've got the cash. 🐢


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## Beaches (3 August 2021)

Beaches said:


> On another note, I got busy with year end stuff and missed the 22c entry. I would appreciate if everyone could sell their shares tomorrow so I can get the 22c entry.



Clearly you have all ignored my request for you people to sell this down so I could get an entry at 22c. It's very disappointing that I had to settle for an entry at 26.5c. 


Assay results should start to filter through soon.
.


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## Beaches (12 August 2021)

@kennas they must have heard your complaints about the channel samples. Drill results released today.









With 8 rigs turning there are still a lot of assay results pending that will be of interest

_▪ This new zone in the footwall has significant width and down-dip extent with deeper _​_drilling (assays pending) intersecting this new footwall zone a further 200 metres down dip. _​_▪ Ten additional holes completed (assays pending) with another nine holes planned in the 
current Sentazon drilling which, based on these early results, is likely to be extended._​


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## Sean K (12 August 2021)

Beaches said:


> @kennas they must have heard your complaints about the channel samples. Drill results released today.




These are some very good widths and grades amongst a few others less inspiring but shows that there's a gold zone expanding over two kms and it looks like it might join up and be open at depth. It's really hard to work out the continuity of the deposit as it shifts between high grade skarn over short widths and intrusion/porphyry over 100s of m at low Au. They've had some significant hits of Ag and Zn within the system as well. How they work out an MRE will be very interesting. Lots of rigs spinning so should have a constant flow of results.


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## Sean K (20 August 2021)

More decent gold intersections at Sentazon following on from the last ann and in line with expectations but they're going a bit OTT on the grades over such short width with so much space between the hits. This hole was 350m deep but they've only reported about 25m of it. Even in Table 1 where you normally find the entire drill hole by meterage they report nothing. So, 25m of mineralisation dispersed over 350m. Sure, bonanza grades over one short section, but does it turn into a mine? I don't know. I suppose if that width and grade extends for a km horizontally it's worth digging up. Sill open at depth. This overall deposit confuses me a little. It's all over the shop. I'm still piecing together the various lodes and trying to decipher where's skarn v intrusion/porphyry. In this case they're reporting this is skarn, inside intrusive zone... Interesting how much Zn is down there.


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## Sean K (7 September 2021)

KK, the MD, is a pretty good ramper of his company. Claiming the entire strike length is one big deposit. I'm not too sure about that, but sounds like a lot of ounces once they get a JORC MRE out. 

Looking forward to 'surprises' out of Ecuador. 

He's pretty confident they're going to double and double again and be taken over. LOL. 

I like his confidence.


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## Sean K (9 September 2021)

kennas said:


> He's pretty confident they're going to double and double again and be taken over. LOL.




Ann today saying they now own 100% of their main project which is nice. Boring, but nice.

In the ann they had to include this picture of their project location, surrounded by Newmont and Glencore. hint hint. 

My crystal ball says these guys are just drilling this out to set up for a take over and a handy pay day.


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## Sean K (28 September 2021)

Ann out yesterday regarding over 50 drill holes. Only a handful of really good ones so while I'm happy this Verde Zone has a strike length of 1.5km there seems to only be some patches where there's 1 g/t or better and very few 2 g/t +. There's really only 4 great hits out of 50+ holes here. I suppose this is the 'low grade, bulk tonnage' part of the project but I'm hopeful they find some higher grade zones closer to surface. I'm not even sure if most of it is open pittable with the huge gaps in mineralisation. There seems to be a lot of waste in there. MD seems to think they're eventually just going to make this one giant open pit down to 300m. 





__





						Investor Centre – Challenger Exploration Limited
					






					challengerex.com


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

kennas said:


> Ann out yesterday regarding over 50 drill holes. Only a handful of really good ones so while I'm happy this Verde Zone has a strike length of 1.5km there seems to only be some patches where there's 1 g/t or better and very few 2 g/t +.




Another ann out. Much happier with these widths and grades at depth showing that this system does get better deeper. If this can be proved to be relatively consistent over a 1.5km strike length then we're looking at multi million ounces in the 'low grade, bulk tonnage' part of the project.


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## The Triangle (30 September 2021)

kennas said:


> Another ann out. Much happier with these widths and grades at depth showing that this system does get better deeper. If this can be proved to be relatively consistent over a 1.5km strike length then we're looking at multi million ounces in the 'low grade, bulk tonnage' part of the project.
> 
> View attachment 130846



Kris is very good at sounding like a confident competent geologist... but not that far off sounding like a crazy used car salesman.  0.5 - 1.5 g/t is not impressive and certainly won't support two doublings of the share price.  That would put CEL at 1.4-1.6 billion market cap after adding in some additional dilution likely to come.  I would like that - but don't think its possible unless there are some spectacular results from Ecuador or we see grades and widths increase.  

I'm over his citadel and degrey references and would like to see CEL start to throw out initial ideas on how to develop Hualilan deposit.


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

The Triangle said:


> Kris is very good at sounding like a confident competent geologist... but not that far off sounding like a crazy used car salesman.  0.5 - 1.5 g/t is not impressive and certainly won't support two doublings of the share price.  That would put CEL at 1.4-1.6 billion market cap after adding in some additional dilution likely to come.  I would like that - but don't think its possible unless there are some spectacular results from Ecuador or we see grades and widths increase.
> 
> I'm over his citadel and degrey references and would like to see CEL start to throw out initial ideas on how to develop Hualilan deposit.




Agree on his ramping. I think his objective is to market it to an experienced mine developer and get bought out.


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## Sean K (16 October 2021)

The Triangle said:


> 0.5 - 1.5 g/t is not impressive and certainly won't support two doublings of the share price.




I meant to add, there's two parts to this project. The intrusive hosted / porphyry low grade/bulk tonnage style thing and then there's the high grade bit, that they have as shown in the histerical drilling and in some of their hits as mentioned in these pages. They have a 'man portable' rig in the hills drilling for the high grade stuff and we're eagerly awaiting results from that. So, the low grade stuff you mention is just the normal porphyry type grades you get anywhere in the World, like in the NSW Lachy Ford Belt or the Golden Triangle in Canuck Land which can be economical between 0.05-1g/t as long as the tonnage is there. With a strike of 1.5km, the tonnage will be there.

I'm pinning my hopes on Kris' salesmanship in selling this to a major nearby who have the wherewithal to dig it up and ship it to China. I'm sure he's a facebook friend of Tony Palmer sending him DMs 5 x a day. Hey! Look at all this gold ready to be picked up!

Chart looking OK at the moment, slowly creeping back to a wave of resistance. I wish they'd hurry up with some more high grade numbers or an initial MRE that supersedes the non-JORC one that can't be trusted.


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## Sean K (19 October 2021)

Sentazon is certainly firming up to be a high grade part of the project, relatively shallow, and growing. 

Come on Newmont! Offer 50c and I'll be happy.


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## Sean K (29 October 2021)

Quarterly out. Good luck reading it all, coming in at only 184 pages weight.

I've really only dipped my toe into this puppy, waiting for confirmation of some continuity in the strike and thickness of the intersections. I think I understand the narrow high grade stuff in the faults and Sentazon, as the grades, widths and their little cartoons make it clear there's a lot of gold there, but a crap load of waste as well.

The Verde Zone is something I'm really trying to understand. There's been some huge low grade intersections along the entire strike, with some higher grades, it's just how continuous this is and what it adds up to. It's about 1.5kmx250mx300m. That's going to add up to some significant tonnage if it's all mineralised, or even partly thereof.





The go forward plan is to complete infill drilling over the entire 1.5 kilometre Verde/Gap Zone trend down to 300 metres vertically with at least three of the current drill rigs on site. Drilling is being conducted on fences of holes spaced 80 metres along strike with drilling on each fence of holes spaced at no more than 80 metres. *This drilling has been designed to allow the calculation of an inferred resource in accordance with the JORC Code along the entire 1.5 kilometre long Verde Zone trend.*

So, God knows what this initial inferred MRE will be, or when it's delivered. There's a zone of Verde yet to be drilled so perhaps after that with some additional infill where there's uncertainty. They might even put out separated JORCs on each zone.


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## Sean K (4 November 2021)

Sentazon certainly looking the goods. One part of this that's been relatively overlooked is the high zinc grades in the deposit, particularly the skarn. These would be good hits just for the zinc. Getting more confident that this overall deposit has some significant mineralisation. Discrete high grade areas not far from surface and a huge low grade intrusive halo over 1.5km, so far. Not really well loved though. Must be the ore type and potential capex which I'm yet to fully grasp. Their plan is to ship concentrate rather than produce dore in situ. But, even that is not really their plan, I think they're just shopping it around.

If you produced intersections like this in Australia, the stock would be many multiples of current MC.


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## Sean K (4 November 2021)

Interesting research piece from Canaccord which was done earlier in the year and does not include any of the significant step out drilling since and Sentazon, which is turning into the best high grade section along the project. Back then they were guestimating up to 1.5m in the high grade zones and potentially 4m in the intrusives. It's much larger now.


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## Sean K (8 November 2021)

This puppy just doesn't like 30c ish, but it is respecting 27.5ish, for now. Even with those previous results and the general gold sector running, just won't push through. Not sure what else they can do to prove they have a decent resource in the making - apart from actually putting out an MRE! Maybe they're waiting to close off some of these zones of mineralisation before putting something out, but an interim inferred one would be nice to juice things up a bit. Potential for overall 5m oz au and the MC around $282m with $35m in the bank...


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## Sean K (11 November 2021)

CEL finally looks like it might break up from this sideways ambling move between 27 and 32. Poked it's head through yesterday but slightly backtracked. With POG breaking out surely that will give this the push it needs. But, stranger things have happened...

A new presentation out today with a lot of updated slides. Preso on this afternoon in Noosa. Wish I could be there...

I think I might be the only holder here. Not sure why it's not loved and seemingly still undervalued to me. Maybe because it's Argentina. I'm having fun in the corner by myself anyway.


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## galumay (11 November 2021)

No, I still hold a parcel I bought many years ago! My only hole digger, bought for all the wrong reasons, hot tip from a mate that knew someone, some talk of Twiggy being involved I think. Still deeply underwater on it, but its a tiny position, not in my main portfolios and serves to remind me to never allocate capital to explorers ever again!


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## galumay (11 November 2021)

galumay said:


> Does anyone know anymore about this stock? I have been given a 'tip' by a friend that works for the company and he is hopeful they are about to have a run up. He bought it at .20 a while ago - looks they fell after that to a low of round .08 and have been slowly rising again with a bit of a bump recently.
> 
> There seems to be some good news coming out of South Africa about their ground there and they have been 'pushed' by a guy called James Gerrish on the Finance News Network, looks like he is an senior advisor for Novus Capital. This is what he had to say/spruik about CEL,
> 
> ...



There you go @Sean K - nearly 9 years ago! I had completely forgotten it was all about the shale in SA, that turned out to be a total dud in the end! (a good reminder to ignore anything analyst/advisors say!)


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## Sean K (11 November 2021)

galumay said:


> No, I still hold a parcel I bought many years ago! My only hole digger, bought for all the wrong reasons, hot tip from a mate that knew someone, some talk of Twiggy being involved I think. Still deeply underwater on it, but its a tiny position, not in my main portfolios and serves to remind me to never allocate capital to explorers ever again!




LOL. Haven't heard the Twiggy one. The current management definitely expect someone to buy them out before they get to mine it. I reckon you'll make some money on this eventually, one day, maybe...


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## Sean K (12 November 2021)

Finally broke through that resistance zone. That _should_ be support on the way back down now. If it goes back down. The way POG is going, there shouldn't be much holding it back now. While the gold majors will probably track gold - or lead it - comparatively, some juniors will overshoot on hype, and I hope this is one of them, but who knows. Might depend on how much it's ramped by twitter. 

Fundamentally, this is bound to be a mining operation, pending any surprises from the Argentine government. There's no sacred sites nearby and the local population consists of llamas. Analysts reports have anything from 2-5m oz au already in the ground. 5m divided between 2m high grade and 3m intrusion hosted would be nice. Plus, the outlier to me is the additional minerals in their high grade areas. There's a lot of zinc in there that seems to go unnoticed. 

If POG continues it's run then all time highs are on the horizon in the short term but I expect, and hope for, consolidation soon.


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## Sean K (14 November 2021)

Noosa Mining Conf Preso on their web site.

Gives a good summary of where they're heading with a concept of mining around the 9min mark.


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## The Triangle (14 November 2021)

Saying a preliminary resource estimate should be out by February definitely would have helped the SP.    Yes, gold is up - but now the market has a date by which they can apply actual numbers and estimates to this deposit.    One a resource is published it should link the SP to the gold price a bit more and establish a bottom price.  I have been thinking it probably needs to be about 2.5 million ounces to justify this SP - the market knows it will grow from there.  The trend at the moment seems to be get the highest possible tonnes or ounces of metal published and screw the grade.    If 5-10 million ounces at a decent grade is the target then 60 cents to $1.20 wouldn't be impossible.    KK obviously knows the metrics and knows exactly what to say in these presentations to get ppl like me working out what ifs.

I am hoping Ecuador turns in to solgold 2.0.  They don't seem very interested in the deposit, it receives very little airtime in all these slides and presentations but 20,000 drill meters is a hell of a big cost to just test out a few targets - they must be confident.


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## Sean K (14 November 2021)

The Triangle said:


> Saying a preliminary resource estimate should be out by February definitely would have helped the SP.    Yes, gold is up - but now the market has a date by which they can apply actual numbers and estimates to this deposit.    One a resource is published it should link the SP to the gold price a bit more and establish a bottom price.  I have been thinking it probably needs to be about 2.5 million ounces to justify this SP - the market knows it will grow from there.  The trend at the moment seems to be get the highest possible tonnes or ounces of metal published and screw the grade.    If 5-10 million ounces at a decent grade is the target then 60 cents to $1.20 wouldn't be impossible.    KK obviously knows the metrics and knows exactly what to say in these presentations to get ppl like me working out what ifs.
> 
> I am hoping Ecuador turns in to solgold 2.0.  They don't seem very interested in the deposit, it receives very little airtime in all these slides and presentations but 20,000 drill meters is a hell of a big cost to just test out a few targets - they must be confident.




KK is very confident in this but, he comes across as a little too confident to me. Maybe his success at Citadel has influenced this. He sounds like he’s ramping it sometimes.

I’ve been completely skeptical in the deposit for months, as you may have read in my posts, but the consistency of high grade intersections in the skarn, plus discovering Sentozan along with the traditional Andean bulk tonnage, low grade intrusive/porphyr all adds up to me.

The historical non-JORC 600k @ 10g/t will at least double in size at a slightly lower grade. Then, it’s 1.2km strike of the intrusive with the dimensions that were mentioned in the preso. I think he said a likely total tonnage of 60-70Mt. The overall grade is a guess, and I guess it’s around 0.5g/t, so about 3.5m oz.

That may be an initial inferred MRE of 4.7m oz au (with Ag, Zn), divided between the three high grade skarns and the intrusive.

Yes, the MC is now getting away for an explorer in Argentina. The easy money may have already been made. I have been in for a while, yes, my average entry is in the mid 20s.

I’m still skeptical of the stock because, even though it’s got a high MC, as it should be much higher with that much gold sitting at surface. Unless those numbers are completely bogus, but no one has provided a counter point so far.


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## Sean K (22 November 2021)

This is turning into a buy the dips proposition for me with the extent of mineralisation being proven up and it's still relatively cheap, IMO, with 4-5Moz already defined and it's expanding. 

If this was a just a Zn explorer you'd be happy with those grades and that's just going to be a by-product.


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## Sean K (23 November 2021)

Investor Webinar on tomorrow for those interested. I guess I'll see galumay, the triangle and me there. 

Brief discussion of above results here:


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## The Triangle (28 December 2021)

Nothing intelligent to add here other than blatant pumping.... 

I was expecting results from Ecuador before Christmas and I suspect a few others were as well.  Combined with the general poor last few weeks of trading for foreign gold juniors I think there were probably some shaky hands on those sell buttons.   I may well be proven wrong, but very good opportunities to pick up shares near 6 month lows.

If you take the cherry picked old numbers of the CEL website for Ecuador  they have 156m @ 2.6 g/t Au + 9.7 g/t Ag + 0.2% Cu & 112m @ 0.6 % Cu +0.7 g/t Au +14.7 g/t Ag.   Average those out and I get a CuEq of 1.5%.   If I made up a width and length of a deposit of 500m x 500m x 134m deep I get about 70 million tonnes.    That's about $10 billion in the ground.   Now I know I'm being somewhat fanciful, but I think this is an ex-newmont project from the late 90s - so not a bad starting point.


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## Sean K (28 December 2021)

The Triangle said:


> Nothing intelligent to add here other than blatant pumping....
> 
> I was expecting results from Ecuador before Christmas and I suspect a few others were as well.  Combined with the general poor last few weeks of trading for foreign gold juniors I think there were probably some shaky hands on those sell buttons.   I may well be proven wrong, but very good opportunities to pick up shares near 6 month lows.
> 
> If you take the cherry picked old numbers of the CEL website for Ecuador  they have 156m @ 2.6 g/t Au + 9.7 g/t Ag + 0.2% Cu & 112m @ 0.6 % Cu +0.7 g/t Au +14.7 g/t Ag.   Average those out and I get a CuEq of 1.5%.   If I made up a width and length of a deposit of 500m x 500m x 134m deep I get about 70 million tonnes.    That's about $10 billion in the ground.   Now I know I'm being somewhat fanciful, but I think this is an ex-newmont project from the late 90s - so not a bad starting point.




I think you can pump it a bit more than that Triangle. There is zero value assigned to Ecuador. And there's hardly any value assigned to Argentina....

KK has already told us what's in the Verde Zone. 50-60Mt @ about 1g/t ish - depending on which hits you choose. Say half that, so 0.5 g/t and you get 2.5-3Moz, then add in the high grade skarns and they are at least double the historical non-JORC resource, so somewhere between 1-2m oz. So, inferred MRE early next year _should_ be between 3.5-4.5M oz au. This type of deposit should be worth at least $200 an ounce (KK says $250-300 at about the 5m mark below - but he's a better pumper than you or I) = $700-900M MC on current in-ground resources.






						Investor Centre – Challenger Exploration Limited
					






					challengerex.com


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## Sean K (29 December 2021)

Drill results out this am which has given it a little spike, but these aren't anything to write home about really. 

Doesn't change any of the above, as I'm not sure if these hits will materially change any mining scenario, especially the narrow and deep ones. Is it going to be worth digging UG to 530m for 45 g/m gold? Maybe a geo / mining engineer would know.


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## Sean K (7 January 2022)

The sooner these guys get an initial MRE out the better. There's quite a few high expectations of a number starting with 4, so hopefully they can deliver. Maybe I shouldn't be putting any numbers up so it's a complete surprise, but some analysts are also putting some big numbers on it unfortunately. Peloton are even calling it Hemi like potential, but I think they're getting that ramp from the MD. The general market seem to think they've got something decent, with a $330m MC, and no resource out yet. So, a lot is factored in already. A surprise to the upside will be the amount of Zn they have in this deposit. You could take out the Au and this could be a Zn mine.


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## Sean K (7 January 2022)

How Peloton value them according to MRE scenarios:


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## Sean K (13 January 2022)

I don't think anyone is assigning any value to Eduador but they might have to look now. This is a huge intercept. Low grades in AuEq, but this is Andes porphyry. Thinking of it gram gold meters it's 313 g/m gold. That's the same as about 100m @ 3 g/t. Interesting development.

Hopefully the follow up holes into the higher priority targets come up with something similar. Very early days in Ecuador.


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## The Triangle (13 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> I don't think anyone is assigning any value to Eduador but they might have to look now. This is a huge intercept. Low grades in AuEq, but this is Andes porphyry. Thinking of it gram gold meters it's 313 g/m gold. That's the same as about 100m @ 3 g/t. Interesting development.
> 
> Hopefully the follow up holes into the higher priority targets come up with something similar. Very early days in Ecuador.
> 
> ...



Those smaller intercepts are looking like 0.30% to 0.37% Copper equivalent (yes I know there's bugger all copper).  That's not enough to be economic.   I've discounted the moly to zero.  Not even sure it would be recoverable?   I think a copper project is probably easier to fund on a mega scale vs a gold project, but it's definitely gold dominant.   

_"a low priority hole, collared significantly east of the main high-grade section of the 1.8km gold in soil anomaly"_

So it's only the first hole and supposedly was not going to be great... so we'll see a few more and then decide.   I'm not excited or depressed by this announcement.   a CuEq of > 0.6 or a AuEq of > 1g/t would excite me over 800+ meters.   But 0.5%/0.8g/t would certainly be enough to keep things interesting to justify more drilling.  If we hit more of the same then dump the project and keep on Argentina.


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## Sean K (13 January 2022)

The Triangle said:


> a CuEq of > 0.6 or a AuEq of > 1g/t would excite me over 800+ meters.   But 0.5%/0.8g/t would certainly be enough to keep things interesting to justify more drilling.




Agree. Needs better grades, or huge tonnage.

There are other porphyrys around the place with similar grades going into production so I wouldn't completely discount these grades if the tonnage is there.

Their aim is to sell the company off once they've established sufficient value I think, so if they make this look prospective they could sell off either project to different companies or as a package. They're only half way through their drilling program at Hualilan so I don't think they'll let anybody see the books until that's done around the EOY.


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## The Triangle (14 January 2022)

Argentina wants to triple mining exports, despite social conflicts
					

Government introducing new incentives to grow the sector over next decade, but social and environmental organisations warn of impact.




					www.batimes.com.ar
				




Always helpful.


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## Sean K (25 January 2022)

These guys seem to come out with over 100g/m gold hits in every ann. Extending he Verde Zone 400m is probably the most significant to me. That's the intrusion / bulk tonnage area which is the long life part of the project and is already about 50-60Mt or ore - according to one of the presentations KK gave and quoted in here previously. Not sure if that makes it into the initial MRE though. No mention of how the MRE is going or when the cut off is.


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## Sean K (15 February 2022)

I'm sure I've said this before, but not wanting to sound like a broken record, if an explorer hit 460 ggm in WA the stock would be going bananas.

Verde is at least 1.5km of continuous mineralisation with these sorts of grades in amongst the intrusive 1g/t stuff.

This is going to be one hell of an open pit.

The major problem that I see at the moment is that there's a heck of a lot of waste between the high grade mineralised sections of the overall deposit. The MD keeps telling us that it all links up, which is fine, but there's a lot of dirt between the stuff that links up. My only concern and maybe why the stock isn't doing a DEG.


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## The Triangle (18 February 2022)

Seems only Blackrock cares about a measly 70m at 7g/t....  

Have to think if gold didn't go up this week CEL would probably still be 27-28 cents!


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## frugal.rock (18 February 2022)

Going by the plan posted by Sean K, there's a heap of assays outstanding...mostly in "open down dip" area. 🧐


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## Sean K (19 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Seems only Blackrock cares about a measly 70m at 7g/t....
> 
> Have to think if gold didn't go up this week CEL would probably still be 27-28 cents!




I agree, CEL have been pretty good at bringing out regular results that on the surface seem outstanding, but there's been muted responses. Numerous intersections above 50 gold gram meters and a large number of over 100 along the entire known mineralised zone. If these drilling results came out in WA it'd be front page of the Mining Weekly. 

Latest video presentation below.






						Investor Centre – Challenger Exploration Limited
					






					challengerex.com
				




The problem I see is the gaps between the mineralisation that the MD has addressed at least three times in other video presentations that I've seen. He says things along the lines of 'I know some people have said 'the deposit doesn't link up' or something like that, which I think he means there's big gaps between the stacks, and it looks like there is.

At about the 7min mark he starts talking about the deposit with some cartoons displaying the intersections and you can clearly see the gaps in the mineralisation. It's just how they strip and mine those high grade areas that I'm not sure about. He's continually said it's just one giant open pit, but that's a lot of waste. 

Initial MRE was due early this year, but he's now saying it may be later this quarter but probably early next quarter. The aim is to have done half of the 200,000m of planning drilling for an initial MRE just so the market can appreciate the scale of what they've got. They're done 78,000m of drilling so far, so there's more to go for the MRE. I expect it may even be mid next quarter due to lab turn around times.



frugal.rock said:


> Going by the plan posted by Sean K, there's a heap of assays outstanding...mostly in "open down dip" area. 🧐




As above, and they haven't found the bottom of the system in the slightest, but they're focussed on the top 400m or so which will be amenable to open pit. 

Ecuador drilling update due next week will be interesting. They could have a huge porphyry system there, which most Australian's won't get as they are low grade, but massive tonnage.


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## The Triangle (19 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> I agree, CEL have been pretty good at bringing out regular results that on the surface seem outstanding, but there's been muted responses. Numerous intersections above 50 gold gram meters and a large number of over 100 along the entire known mineralised zone. If these drilling results came out in WA it'd be front page of the Mining Weekly.
> 
> Latest video presentation below.
> 
> ...



They'll for sure have a resource modeled up on their computers by now.  It seems clear that the average grade is going to be quite low, so the game is about adding bulk ounces.   Better off holding out for as long as possible on publishing an MRE to get as many drill results back to maximize total ounces.    

I'm waiting for the typical massive dilution from the Blackrock/institutional/executives 'mates' capital raising to 'accelerate resource growth'  or whatever line the current power brokers are using these days.   I just hope KK is smart enough (and has enough of a holding) that he can avoid that being done in the mid-high 20s.


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## Sean K (19 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> I'm waiting for the typical massive dilution from the Blackrock/institutional/executives 'mates' capital raising to 'accelerate resource growth'  or whatever line the current power brokers are using these days.   I just hope KK is smart enough (and has enough of a holding) that he can avoid that being done in the mid-high 20s.




I think they'll go back to market when the initial MRE comes out. KK says the have enough cash 'for the foreseeable future', but that foreseeable future might be just 2 months away. Hopefully the stock is high 30s by then to avoid too much dilution. They're only half way through the drill program, so it's gotta come around soon with 9 rigs spinning.


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## Sean K (23 February 2022)

As usual, Australians wont understand the significance of this as it's a porphyry discovery. But, it might get more attention due to the polymetallic nature of it with some significant copper. And, it's just the start. Would have liked to see some higher Eq overall grades though. 

Not sure what their longer term plan with this is. They definitely want a buyer for Hualian and they'll end up selling both the major projects but perhaps to different buyers.


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## The Triangle (23 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> As usual, Australians wont understand the significance of this as it's a porphyry discovery. But, it might get more attention due to the polymetallic nature of it with some significant copper. And, it's just the start. Would have liked to see some higher Eq overall grades though.
> 
> Not sure what their longer term plan with this is. They definitely want a buyer for Hualian and they'll end up selling both the major projects but perhaps to different buyers.
> 
> ...



Maybe interesting, but still not very exciting.   Over long intercepts continues to look like high 0.3X% CuEq so I think it's completely uneconomic so far.   Not everything is a winner, but this is why you do exploration.  At least glad these guys had a crack at this site rather than spinning it off in to some IPO.    What nonsense reporting 0.8m intercepts on holes like this.  I also don't think gram meters should be published either.  

Why is there no talk of hole 007?  

On a side note at the bottom of page 1  they said they rushed assays and expect results in 2-3 weeks.   So there you go.  If Ecuador and CEL can get lab results back on diamond Core in 2-3 weeks then why are some of the other small juniors taking months and months???  (Rhetorical question, its because the results are bad and the MD/CEO can claim there is an issue with the lab to get around releasing the results to the market)


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## Sean K (23 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Why is there no talk of hole 007?




Well picked up. Even if it was dirt it should have been announced. They do every other hole. Maybe an oversight.


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## Sean K (3 March 2022)

Blackrock Group have added 14m shares to their holdings over the past two weeks, which has what has probably driven the price up, along with POG. Now holding just under 10%. Maybe some M&A action on the horizon.


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## Sean K (9 March 2022)

Ecuador shaping up to be something. I don't think there's any value assigned to this in CEL's SP.

200 gold gram meters plus is very significant. Especially the high grade zones.


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## The Triangle (9 March 2022)

Sean K said:


> Ecuador shaping up to be something. I don't think there's any value assigned to this in CEL's SP.
> 
> 200 gold gram meters plus is very significant. Especially the high grade zones.
> 
> ...



Nice to see a professional junior which actually gets assays back in a timely manner.   They need a lot more results like this to see if this could be economic but definitely 260 at 1.4 AuEq is good enough to me to justify the expenditure to keep drilling around the area, especially considering these hits start pretty well from surface. 

Just need to get a handle on what kind of recoveries would be expected with ag, au, cu, mo.


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## Sean K (11 March 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Nice to see a professional junior which actually gets assays back in a timely manner.   They need a lot more results like this to see if this could be economic but definitely 260 at 1.4 AuEq is good enough to me to justify the expenditure to keep drilling around the area, especially considering these hits start pretty well from surface.
> 
> Just need to get a handle on what kind of recoveries would be expected with ag, au, cu, mo.




I think they'll drill enough to farm it out. Their overall intent is to sell to a major, so they could sell Argentina to someone and Ecuador to someone else. Might just mean who is locally best suited to buy them out of each project. I still don't think Ecuador is factored into their MC at all at the moment and if they have a few more hits like that then it could be a game changer. 

Approaching ATHs again and might only need one more significant intercept at either Hualilan or El Guayabo to free them up. Maybe the initial MRE at Hualilan will be the catalyst for a re-rating. 

I'm actually really curious as to how much zinc is in Hualilan. It's adding considerably to the AuEq score at the moment. 

My only concern with Hualilan remains the gaps in the resource. There's going to be a huge strip ratio in sections of the deposit if they're thinking one giant open pit, as KK has stated is the throw away mine plan. The more obvious thing is to selectively mine the high grade skarns first and use the cash for the bulk mining open pit Verde Zone.


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## Sean K (28 March 2022)

Initial MRE must be close. Was planned to be end of first quarter pending assays and haven't seen any assays out for 6 weeks at Hualilan, so must be very close. Will just be half way through the 200Km they've planned to drill, but still substantial. Hopefully surprises to the upside. Very hard to guestimate due to the gaps in the mineralisation but the MD keeps talking it up to be substantial. MC hovering around $330m so I think the market has factored in about 3Moz. Still no value assigned to Ecuador which the MD thinks would be worth $100m if it was a standalone project. 35-38c developed as a wall to break through.


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## Sean K (8 April 2022)

I thought we'd have the MRE by now. A bit tardy.

I noticed BlackRock have now accumulated more that 10% of the company. Interesting.


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## Sean K (22 April 2022)

El Guayabo in Ecudador discovery now 1km in strike and 1km wide in the centre. That's one hell of an open pit. This is potentially a company maker in itself and it's their second banana project. This should attract some interest, even moreso than Hualilan I think. They could potentially sell off either deposit as seperate deals. Probably needs a high grade zone in there somewhere.

Initial MRE at Hualilan due shortly.


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## Sean K (22 April 2022)

KK out ramping his company straight away as usual. Don't know of many MDs who do this so promptly.

According to him the current drill results out above could have dimensions of 1000x1000x500 x sg of 2.5 = 1.25Bt. Surely not. He goes on to compare it to a deposit 5km up the road that has 20m ounces in it.

This is not the main target and they have identified 15 on the property. Maybe they need to send some of those rigs from Argentina up here.


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## Sean K (27 April 2022)

CEL has held up remarkably well the past few days considering the general market sentiment. Makes me think the bigger players are soaking up any weakness but the volume doesn't really represent that. Gives me a little more confidence that the Ecuador story has some legs and when combined with Argentina, they have two major projects.

I'm actually fascinated with where this goes because the company's stated goal is to drill these targets out until it's at a critical mass where they can sell it off. I'm not sure what price they have on themselves but KK said some time ago the idea was to double and double again, which was stated at about the 30c mark. I'll be satisfied at the 50c mark.


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## Sean K (3 May 2022)

Gold testing the crucial 1850 mark overnight. eeeek. I'm surprised the gold stocks have held up so well today, could have been much worse.

Not a great day to bring out good results. They're doing a lot of work to make this project look well advanced and a major to pick it up. Sounds like the skarn material has excellent recoveries while they expect the intrusion hosted material _should_ be just as good.


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## The Triangle (15 May 2022)

As rivals turn screws on mining, Argentina puts out welcome mat
					

Government turns to capital-control loopholes and tax breaks, eyeing export boost as neighbours look to raise mine taxes.




					www.batimes.com.ar


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## Sean K (31 May 2022)

TH for MRE.

This was supposed to come out last quarter but didn't so I picked it in May comp because it should have come out this month. Going to miss by a day or two. :-(

The MD is on record as saying the high grade skarn / mantos should triple in size, so about 1.5-1.8Moz at around 5g/t, then the low grade intrusives in the Verde Zone. The Verde Zone is supposed to be 1.5kmx200mx300m going at about 1g/t with lots of gaps/waste in it from what I can tell by their cartoons so it's very hard to guess the number. 

It's only half way through the 200Km drill program, so it's just going to get bigger from what they come out with.


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## Sean K (1 June 2022)

I think the market is expecting much more than this and it will be smashed.


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## Sean K (1 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> I think the market is expecting much more than this and it will be smashed.
> 
> View attachment 142423



Although, maybe the upside is still attractive.


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## Sean K (1 June 2022)

Well, in a down day for gold and goldies, this has magically held up, so far, so maybe Mr Market didn't expect any more than 2Moz.


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## The Triangle (1 June 2022)

Surely this gets combined with a capital raising?

Grade probably better than expected but total Oz not enough to cause the SP to "double and then double again".  I didn't see strip ratios with pit shells.  Poor form by CEL.  Presumably that will be in his little webinar.  Not sure why the wasted my time with a $600 US pit shell as well. 

Still a few more months of assays to trickle in and plenty of upside.     Nearly held this for a year was looking to dump it next month.   So we'll see.


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## Sean K (1 June 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Surely this gets combined with a capital raising?
> 
> Grade probably better than expected but total Oz not enough to cause the SP to "double and then double again".  I didn't see strip ratios with pit shells.  Poor form by CEL.  Presumably that will be in his little webinar.  Not sure why the wasted my time with a $600 US pit shell as well.
> 
> Still a few more months of assays to trickle in and plenty of upside.     Nearly held this for a year was looking to dump it next month.   So we'll see.




There seems to be quite a bit outside the pit shell and overall dimensions of what's been drilled. There's a crap load of assays to be returned. They have actually completed about 180K m of the overall drilling with about 60K waiting in the shop.

Agree, CR probably on the cards, but I don't think they need it for the final 20K of drilling in Argentina. They might need it for PFS and Ecuador drilling though.


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## Sean K (1 June 2022)

I've worked out why I got the skarn/manto so wrong and it's because we may have been misled by the company. For the past year or so they've been telling us they had about 500-600K historical ounces (non-JORC) @ 10g/t Au in the deposit they inherited. It's been very clear from the announcements that the mantos had at least tripled in size, hence my call of about 2Moz in the mantos.

However, in the initial MRE announcement presentation they are now claiming the historical resource was just 250K @ 5g/t. The only out they have is that they're now calling it underground resource, as opposed to total resource, but still... It seems like they've been deceptive here, or just plain wrong.

I knew the Verde Zone had too many holes in it to even make a call and 1m ounces over 1.2km is pretty light on really.

I would be selling this on this MRE if it wasn't for Ecuador which could be better than this deposit.


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## The Triangle (2 June 2022)

So is it all the mom's and dad's expecting 3 million ounces who are dumping?

I watched the webinar - a few points I thought interesting but took with a big cup of salt...

The argentine mining minster told them he was going to put pressure on CEL to start mining...
Confirmed not looking for money in near future (how many times have I heard that before) 5-7 million quarterly cash burn (depends on rigs)
"750,000 to 1,000,000 oz per year long-term target"  
$0.10kw-h power cost estimates...connected to the argentine power grid...giving them 3 years royalty free??? 
$0.60l diesel costs estimates...
$2/usd/tonne mining cost for ore and waste
Talk about starting small scale - 100-150 million capex then scaling up out of cashflow (again, how many times have I heard that )
Hopeful for upgrade to resource in mid October
Seems like they'll go straight for a bankable feasibility and bypass scoping/pre-feas (which I am always in favour of)
Rough estimate - 1 MTPA/120koz for 3 years at a cost below $600? at a 6:1ish strip.  Then build up to the larger lower grade sections... Less than a 1 year payback - I more or less can get these numbers with my quick calculations as well.
10:1 strip ratio "Overall" - So that's pretty bad - so no wonder they left it out of the presentations.    I don't know how he can look into a camera and call that a 'nice strip ratio'
Water not considered a major issue.
They are very much talking about getting into production quickly.
They gave 2 groups access to their data room with a 12 month standstill agreement...
like most I was not very impressed by the resource, but it was still a very good presentation with a lot of details.


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## Sean K (3 June 2022)

The Triangle said:


> So is it all the mom's and dad's expecting 3 million ounces who are dumping?
> 
> I watched the webinar - a few points I thought interesting but took with a big cup of salt...
> 
> ...



Good points Triangle. I think the 10:1 strip ratio is generous, when you look at the models of the Verde Zone, there's way more dirt in the shells than that by the naked eye.

While the next MRE will improve the numbers both in size and more Indicated, maybe some measured, I'm banking on Ecuador being the company maker now.

They obviously just want to make this look feasible with upside in order to sell it off.


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## Sean K (3 June 2022)

The Triangle said:


> I watched the webinar - a few points I thought interesting but took with a big cup of salt...




Only just watched the webinar. He's very good at talking it up and gives a great spin on it. Some of the numbers he's thrown out in there are pretty wild, as you have indicated. 

Sounds like just the high grade skarns could be selectively mined if they make it to 2Moz. 

He also did briefly explain the difference in the original non-JORC compared to what they've produced but it's a bit flimsy. 






						Investor Centre – Challenger Exploration Limited
					






					challengerex.com


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## Sean K (6 June 2022)

Those drill results mentioned above in Ecuador have come through and the holes were mineralised. Over 0.5g/t AuEq is good overall but they would have liked to see some high grade areas in there, preferably close to the surface. There's a couple of intersections 0.6 and 0.7, but over 1g/t would have been better of course. Still, if each of the exploration targets (CV A-H and GY A-E) in this area are similar, that's a huge bulk mining operation. It's going to have to be gigantic at those grades.


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## Sean K (19 July 2022)

In a price query tonight after jumping 30% for no reason. Answer: we know nothing. Going to be embarrassing if they bring out some good drill results in the next few days.


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## Sean K (9 September 2022)

Don't often raise money at a premium to the SP, but there you go. I don't quite understand this plan yet, but I assume the debentures can be converted in the future when the SP may be trading at a higher price.


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## The Triangle (9 September 2022)

Sean K said:


> Don't often raise money at a premium to the SP, but there you go. I don't quite understand this plan yet, but I assume the debentures can be converted in the future when the SP may be trading at a higher price.
> 
> View attachment 146579



Just looks like debt issued at a 9% interest rate + a massive 3% upfront?   I would have lent them at 8.5% interest.  

_Upon closing, the Company will pay to QRC an establishment *fee equal to 3% of the principal amount* of the Debentures in cash or shares. QRC has notified the Company that is has elected for the establishment fee to be paid in Shares which will be issued at the same price of $0.19 as the At Market Placement_

The Debentures are unsecured with a *coupon (interest) rate of 9%* (7% payable in cash and 2% payable in either cash or Shares, at QRC's election) payable quarterly in arrears. The Share price used to calculate the number of Shares to be issued for the interest component payable in Shares is the to 20 day VWAP ending three trading days prior to the interest being payable. 

CEL were stuck in no mans land.  Limited cash left, limited market interest, Ecuador looking glass have empty, falling gold prices, a dysfunctional Argentina, an MRE below expectations, etc. etc.   Something is better than nothing, but this is certainly not as good as the headline suggests.


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## The Triangle (28 September 2022)

Since the comment about the SP going to "double and double again" by the MD the share price has actually halved and it's looking like it will halve again.  However, in the past 12 months blackrock have doubled their holding in CEL to ~140,000,00 shares.  Pretty much slicing their hands all the way down from the mid 30s to mid 20s to mid-teens catching the falling knife.   Not sure if I should feel good about that or not...

All these junior goldies are getting hammered at the moment so it's looking like that debt/raising from several weeks ago may have been a good idea but my biggest worry now with CEL is that it turns into the new HCH.  Forever drilling, forever diluting, never mining, and waiting around for the takeover that's never coming.


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## Sean K (24 October 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Since the comment about the SP going to "double and double again" by the MD the share price has actually halved and it's looking like it will halve again.  However, in the past 12 months blackrock have doubled their holding in CEL to ~140,000,00 shares.  Pretty much slicing their hands all the way down from the mid 30s to mid 20s to mid-teens catching the falling knife.   Not sure if I should feel good about that or not...
> 
> All these junior goldies are getting hammered at the moment so it's looking like that debt/raising from several weeks ago may have been a good idea but my biggest worry now with CEL is that it turns into the new HCH.  Forever drilling, forever diluting, never mining, and waiting around for the takeover that's never coming.




Rats are fleeing this sinking ship.

I've bought into this several time over the past 18 months, on break ups and also weakness.

Unfortunately, the reason why I first bought it, on what fundamentals or prospectivity there were, don't seem to exist anymore.

The interim JOC on Argentina was about half what I expected. The MD told us over and over that the skarn / high grade area in particular was going to be three times, or so, over the historical MRE. Wrong. Major wrong. In fact, potentially hidden from investors. If it was going to be so much less than ramped it should have been material to the market and announced prior. The 'intrusion' part was going to be bulk tonnage and you just make it one giant open pit. That is not going to be the case at all. Unless the updated JORC comes back with closer to 2Moz in the skarn and a mineable / payable 2Moz in the intrusion, then Argentina is an artisanal type prospect. 

Ecuador may be their saviour. They need the initial MRE to come out _way_ above expectations, or I fear this company may be toast. 

While just about every gold explorer has been trashed the past year, those participating in recent CRs must be wringing their hands.


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