# Paper Trading: Log your results!



## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

I thought i would start a thread for all you newbies to state our paper trades and log our results. 

Try to take trades that you would normally trade, with real money.

Say what your strategy is and how you feel about the trade (if you need to, eg, are you anxious, excited?). 

Perhaps we could structure it:

Instrument
Long or Short
Volume
Value
Amount of collateral you put up
Stop Loss
Strategy
Your thoughts and feelings (optional)

I'll start:

1. Took out a short on the Aus SPI at 3860 20/4/09. So far, $800.00 in the green. Full cash up front (no SL and no leverage). Do i take profits now, or hold on? Dedided to hold. Initial strategy = hold until 3,500. - put SL on at 3775.

2. Took out a short on Gold, 2 mini contracts. Collateral $1443.00, SL $881.00. $36.00 in the green. Strategy: hold.


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## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

Just closed out the SPI position at a $1250.00 profit. Dammit. Would have liked to have held, but, let's face it, if it was real cash, you'd close.


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## Mr J (20 April 2009)

Testing the SPI for a week, sold at 3780 and out at 3761. I also drive a Lamborghini and had two threesomes on the weekend. Just proving a point :.


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## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

Mr J said:


> I also drive a Lamborghini and had two threesomes on the weekend.




So, you're going to sell your Lambourghini and fund your trading account? :


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## Mr J (20 April 2009)

No, afternoon drives make my losses easier to take. Anyway, like most of these exotic cars, it's financed. So were the threesomes.


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## tech/a (20 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Just closed out the SPI position at a $1250.00 profit. Dammit. Would have liked to have held, but, let's face it, if it was real cash, you'd close.





WHY

You had an initial target of 3500 so whats altered that?

You have demonstrated one of the main reasons Traders fail.


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## Mr J (20 April 2009)

Missed that. Why did you set 3500 as your target? The only reason to deviate is if that target wasn't correct under your strategy. Otherwise, you should stay in until the market suggests your strategy is no longer working.


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## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

Mr J said:


> Missed that. Why did you set 3500 as your target? The only reason to deviate is if that target wasn't correct under your strategy. Otherwise, you should stay in until the market suggests your strategy is no longer working.




Yes, you're right. Thanks tech/a for your feedback too. It's the same old problem for me, anxiety. "I might as well take the profit now" mentality. You're right, i probably would fail as a trader if i wigged out at every "small" profit.

That is something i really have to work on. Used to be good at it, but after suffering some loses last year, i am really anxious and decided to make "many small profits" part of my trading strategy.

I now, however, know that this will not work long term because of losses you sometimes suffer when your stop-losses are hit.


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## Mr J (20 April 2009)

I did it too. For me it was likely due to lack of confidence as I was new to trading (still am, but have more idea now). I realised how much we are handicapping ourselves though. Now, I'm inclined to leave it there until I'm unhappy with it.


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## Wysiwyg (20 April 2009)

I am attempting to trade using the multi time frame indicator. Obviously the trend is down so I have entered short at 1.2988 with a TP at 1.2975. The M1 is my entry bar indicator and the other bars are for general overview.


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## Wysiwyg (20 April 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I am attempting to trade using the multi time frame indicator. Obviously the trend is down so I have entered short at 1.2988 with a TP at 1.2975. The M1 is my entry bar indicator and the other bars are for general overview.





Trade failed although came within 1 pip of my take profit. Games rigged I tell ya.


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## Trembling Hand (20 April 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Trade failed although came within 1 pip of my take profit. Games rigged I tell ya.




If it gets within 1 pip why would you let it run back past BE to 1R?


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## Wysiwyg (20 April 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> If it gets within 1 pip why would you let it run back past BE to 1R?





Yes, I am aware of that and should have been watching the trade. Moving the initial stop loss to break even (BE) is the best procedure.


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## tech/a (20 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> WHY
> 
> You had an initial target of 3500 so whats altered that?
> 
> You have demonstrated one of the main reasons Traders fail.




So seeing its a paper trade why not take the view that its still open (option 2) and your now looking for an opportunity to Pyramid the position? IE Add to your already successful short while now moving your stop the B/E.

Shall we see how that developes?


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## beamstas (20 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Just closed out the SPI position at a $1250.00 profit. Dammit. Would have liked to have held, but, let's face it, if it was real cash, you'd close.




Lets be honest here

Your doing this in a paper trade

What are you going to do with real money on the table?

Few Small Tips

1. Concentrate on the process and don't think about the money
2. Do the opposite to what you would normally do. Normal human instinct is to take the profit as soon as you get it because you fear you will lose profit by leaving it on the table, and to not sell a losing trade hoping the price will come back into profit. You want to do the *exact* opposite, you want to keep the winning trade and sell the losing trade before the loss gets any bigger

Brad


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## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> So seeing its a paper trade why not take the view that its still open (option 2) and your now looking for an opportunity to Pyramid the position? IE Add to your already successful short while now moving your stop the B/E.
> 
> Shall we see how that developes?




Good idea Tech/a. After i posted, i re-opened the position and am going to practise letting my trades run.

Not sure about pyramiding, as i am not sure whether i'd do that at this stage (i should have taken out two contracts), but i will definately move my SL to break even...

Thanks


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## tech/a (20 April 2009)

Your looking for an opportunity to add to your position.

IE if we have a pull back---the SPI has an up day--- then we are looking for a place to add to the short---not get out of it!

Your view is a longer period of bearishness thats why you are short. 
That is our/your view I gather from your initial post 3200 or so.

I'm not interested in wether I or anyone else agrees with you---lets just trade it to the best of our ability to the short side---hope you dont mind me hopping on and giving a hand?


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## alwaysLearning (20 April 2009)

maybe post a chart when you place your calls? Just so that it's easier to visualise what's going on in that particular instrument or security that you are trading.


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## alwaysLearning (20 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> WHY
> 
> You had an initial target of 3500 so whats altered that?
> 
> You have demonstrated one of the main reasons Traders fail.




Quick question tech, but what would you say is the best way to do MM? 

Some people like to let a trade go their way and then they take half profit and let the rest run and then add to that position as the market pulls back if if they think it will continue in their desired direction.

Then you read about strategies whereby you enter a position of say half a percent and if it goes your way then move your stop to break even and then add another half percent and keep doing this until you think the trend will break.

But the problem is what the heck do  you do if you are in profit by a substantial amount and the market goes against you...you are still in profit but it feels like you need to t/p but  you wait because you still think it will go lower. In the end  you can lose the entire profit you had because of not taking profit when you could have.

Ok that sounds like babbing:
If you are in profit, there is a strong temptation to take profit so you can put it in the bag. We all know that we should let profits run but for how long? What sort of retracement drawdown should you allow before you MUST take profit? 

So for example, let's say we are $200 in profit. Should we allow a 20% retracement on that $200 before we say, uh no, that's pulled back too much, I'm out. OR, should you just let it run, or should you take half off the table?

It's very difficult to work out the MM. I would think that the MM is dependent on the edge and working out the expectency but still MM can affect expectency as well since it has a bearing on how much you are willing to risk.


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## tech/a (20 April 2009)

alwaysLearning said:


> Quick question tech, but what would you say is the best way to do MM?
> 
> Some people like to let a trade go their way and then they take half profit and let the rest run and then add to that position as the market pulls back if if they think it will continue in their desired direction.




More so if the move isnt considered to be over according to their analysis---what they think personally "Shouldnt" come into it.



> Then you read about strategies whereby you enter a position of say half a percent and if it goes your way then move your stop to break even and then add another half percent and keep doing this until you think the trend will break.




Yes could do that too.



> But the problem is what the heck do  you do if you are in profit by a substantial amount and the market goes against you...you are still in profit but it feels like you need to t/p but  you wait because you still think it will go lower. In the end  you can lose the entire profit you had because of not taking profit when you could have.




Common happens to me on occasion but once in profit you should NEVER go below break even. Then when one does finally play out--pay day!



> Ok that sounds like babbing:
> If you are in profit, there is a strong temptation to take profit so you can put it in the bag. We all know that we should let profits run but for how long? What sort of retracement drawdown should you allow before you MUST take profit?




I take profit when its time to exit. Before then I'm just doing business.
Its the end result of that business thats important.



> So for example, let's say we are $200 in profit. Should we allow a 20% retracement on that $200 before we say, uh no, that's pulled back too much, I'm out. OR, should you just let it run, or should you take half off the table?




At break even.



> It's very difficult to work out the MM. I would think that the MM is dependent on the edge and working out the expectency but still MM can affect expectency as well since it has a bearing on how much you are willing to risk.




Your risking Zip if your moving to B/E as quick as possible.

Now for those who are nervous or who dont consider the move they are in is possible to predict an exit---then a Trailing stop is in order.
I have (When I use them) used a lower high, An obvious stop in the up move (Low volume test),double top on lower volume among other things.
The other is a parabolic stop.
When price advances basically vertical and then shows on a short term chart that is going to blow off.
Often getting me out before a 30-50% rapid down move.

But generally its longer term if I can.
But rarely if I can help it below B/E.


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## alwaysLearning (20 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> More so if the move isnt considered to be over according to their analysis---what they think personally "Shouldnt" come into it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thanks tech your post helps me out a lot. MM with the questions I asked above have been bugging me for quite some time. I'll give your MM strategy a go. Although I have been doing what you do at times, but not consistantly since I've been testing a few different systems with different MM.


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## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> hope you dont mind me hopping on and giving a hand?




No, not at all! I'd be appreciative of the advice .

I know it will be hard, challenging my weaknesses etc., but i'm thinking initial strategy is to keep moving stop losses and, as you say, scale in on short-term peaks to an overall down trend. Strange, i would have pyramided in when the price moved down.

Only thing is, how to manage pyramiding positions? Set new stop losses, at what stage do i liquidate trade, including initial position, if it turns against me? I guess i'd have a stop in place which would hopefully attract some profit.

Anyway, for now, i have moved stop to break even. Haven't added to position yet...

Just got to learn _when _to move my stops, and by *how much *

Okay. Example, went short 1 contract the SPI at 3769. I set my stop at 3755, it is now trading at 3725.


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## Mr J (20 April 2009)

> Just got to learn when to move my stops, and by how much




What is the reasoning for you placing your trades? Example, are you looking to short on a break of support, are you trading a trend, etc. The stops should be moved to the point where it's likely your strategy is no longer working. Think about your strategy and where the logical exists should be.


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## Aussiest (20 April 2009)

Mr J said:


> What is the reasoning for you placing your trades? Example, are you looking to short on a break of support, are you trading a trend, etc. The stops should be moved to the point where it's likely your strategy is no longer working. Think about your strategy and where the logical exists should be.




Reasoning: support and/or resistance. Momentum - thinning volume. Market exhaustion, negative sentiment. (i know, i need to study up on more of the indicators). 

I understand what you're saying about logical significant "points". I thought of that after i posted. 

Looking at the SPI chart, i wouldn't be surprised if the SPI retraces to around 3,600 (if it is a small retrace. Will depend on news over the next few nights in the US?). I currently have my exit set for 3,550.

I've just moved my stop to 3742, as is indicated as falling through support on chart. Gosh, i hope i have done the right thing


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

Well, the US is 1/2 hr into trading and it's looking red, red, red. My trade should go well tomorrow!


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## tech/a (21 April 2009)

If your taking a longer term view then set your stop (Initial stop) accordingly.
I personally would still have it a B/E until the trade matures a bit.

Pyramiding is another topis and in itself there are many ways of handling it.
I set each trade on its own merits.
You can of course set the trade as one and Average entry and stops for B/E.

I treat mine as individual trades as at times my pyramid may well be 2-3 times the size of the initial trade.

So all good for your short---dont worry about retracements thats very normal you must learn that you'll give some profit back at time to stay in the position of making excellent long term business profit.


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

Thanks Tech/a.

Sitting on 2.6k profit, so tempted to take it!


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## beamstas (21 April 2009)

"Sitting on 2.6k profit, so tempted to take it!"

But why?


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

Okay, i get your point . I would have said "because that's good money", but you're saying "you need technical or fundamental reasons to close the trade".

Technical reason: perhaps market will step up a little and retrace tomorrow... in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow? 

Other reason: if i see market retrace tomorrow (i am short and i think it will go up a little), i may lose my nerve and take it out. Then i would regret that i didn't do it today at a higher profit.

I guess also, i have a "take the money and run" and "don't be greedy" philosophy.

This is so hard, grr...


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## beamstas (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Okay, i get your point . I would have said "because that's good money", but you're saying "you need technical or fundamental reasons to take the money".
> 
> Technical reason: perhaps market will step up a little and retrace tomorrow... in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?
> 
> Other reason: if i see market retrace tomorrow (i am short and i think it will go up a little), i may lose my nerve and take it out.




*Why do you think it will go up?*
You are not using 100% of your brain. Only 50%, the side that says its going up

It has a chance to go up
It has a chance to go down

Don't forget the second scenario

Brad


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## Trembling Hand (21 April 2009)

Aussiest the reason you are lost is because you don't know where you are going!

Figure out what the hell you are trying to do by first observing whats probable. Then you will know how to deal with trades. along the lines of what Frank does.


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## Mr J (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Okay, i get your point . I would have said "because that's good money", but you're saying "you need technical or fundamental reasons to close the trade".
> 
> Technical reason: perhaps market will step up a little and retrace tomorrow... in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?
> 
> ...




You do need a good reason to exit, providing that your original reasoning for entering the trade was sound. However, if you do conclude that your original reasoning was flawed, then you should exit the trade immediately.

I think you're confusing yourself with trading different timeframes. Retracements must be expected on the chart you posted, and I thought you're confusing yourself by focusing on waves (movements) smaller than the one you plan to take advantage of. 

In the chart I attatched, your entry and profit target suggest that you're trying to trade the red line, but it sounds like you're focusing too much on what the blue line is doing. You should decide what timeframe you want to trade, as otherwise it's just going to scare you out of trades.

You wanted to see 3550-3600 and you're riding a downtrend. I imagine it's exactly how you wanted this trade to play out, so why exit?



> in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?




You could, this would be trading a different timeframe to your current trade. 



> Then i would regret that i didn't do it today at a higher profit.




That's part of trading. How would you feel if you exited today only to see it drop to 3100? This is why you should have a clear strategy and reason to exit. Without these, you'll just constantly second guess yourself and that can be very damaging.



> I guess also, i have a "take the money and run" and "don't be greedy" philosophy.




Trading is a funny business, but just remember that you should take what you can. The occasional big win you get from letting it run will add significantly to the bottom line. The choice to let it run isn't about greed, as emotions shouldn't have anything to do with it. The choice is because the trader has calculated it to be a profitable move to do so.


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

Mr J said:


> You do need a good reason to exit, providing that your original reasoning for entering the trade was sound. However, if you do conclude that your original reasoning was flawed, then you should exit the trade immediately.




Yes, i agree.



Mr J said:


> You should decide what timeframe you want to trade, as otherwise it's just going to scare you out of trades.




Yes, you're right. I've always been more comfortable with short term, multiple trades, but am learning to trade a bit more 'longer term'.



Mr J said:


> You wanted to see 3550-3600 and you're riding a downtrend. I imagine it's exactly how you wanted this trade to play out, so why exit?




Watching the Wall Street indicies and noticing they were trading up. The fall on the US was so big last night that there is sure to be a small rebound tonight, thus pushing our market up a little. I am still bearish for the medium term though.



Mr J said:


> You could, this would be trading a different timeframe to your current trade.




I thought about this and it is possible to take out two positions: one to hold medium term and the other to trade the shorter term fluctuations.



Mr J said:


> That's part of trading. How would you feel if you exited today only to see it drop to 3100?




Hmm, i get your point


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## beamstas (21 April 2009)

Aussie

Don't even think about the money


Think of it like a scoreboard.. and you are Richmond (LOL! )

Don't give up just because you kicked a goal 
Think about the next 50 goals.. 100 goals.. or even better the next 1000 goals!

You can't make a big profit taking a small profit

Brad


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

What are the best entry signals though?

Usually, i look for exhaustion (momentum dropping off, price action cooling down) - RSI, divergence

Market sentiment: what the news is saying and how people will likely respond to it

The US market: how the Dow and indices did the night before, what the Wall Street index is doing in after-market trade.

I guess i look at candles, but candles are great after the event. I am interested in what the event is going to do next.

I look at oil and gold prices so that i can monitor oil and gold stocks.

Is there anything i have missed?

Exit signals can be a reversal in the Wall Street index during the day (AEST), a sudden price move of oil or gold, how i perceive Wall St will do tonight.


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## tech/a (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> What are the best entry signals though?
> 
> Usually, i look for exhaustion (momentum dropping off, price action cooling down) - RSI, divergence
> 
> ...





The spine shivers.


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## MRC & Co (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> The spine shivers.




ROLFMAO.

Sorry, Aussiest, you will learn a lot here as I did, just funny seeing that list and then the comment.


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## Trembling Hand (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Is there anything i have missed?
> .




Oh you could add a hell of a lot more. 

Or you could forget all that crap and just look at what you are trading


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## James Austin (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Is there anything i have missed?





stay on sim


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> The spine shivers.




Well, people here go on about TA. What am i supposed to do? Rub a crystal ball?

Usually i just trade with instinct, around support and resistance, but thought that i should use some TA.

I don't know, i give up... (not on trading, but on trying to change my style).

By the way, to the person who said "keep using sim", i have gone well beyond sim. I am using sim for the SPI. I think i'll go alright, just got to get my stops into place. I have already made 3k+ doing trades i would have done in real life, and am confident i can do more. It's just a matter of waiting for the right conditions.


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## beamstas (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Well, people here go on about TA. What am i supposed to do? Rub a crystal ball?
> 
> Usually i just trade with instinct, around support and resistance, but thought that i should use some TA.
> 
> ...




Don't give up

*There are two people who have been instrumental in my progress as a trader - from listening to them and taking in what they say*
Tech/a is one of those two people

There is always much to learn 

Everyone in this thread is trying to help you (admittedly some more than others)

My advice

Don't give up
You will get there!

No need for a crystal ball!! 

No one can trade at 100% win rate

You don't even need to trade at 50% win rate

Just let those profits run  

Brad


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## nunthewiser (21 April 2009)

beamstas said:


> Don't give up
> 
> There are two people who have been instrumental in my progress as a trader - from learning and taking in what they say




thanks m8


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## tech/a (21 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> thanks m8




You crack me up!


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

beamstas said:


> Don't give up
> 
> *There are two people who have been instrumental in my progress as a trader - from listening to them and taking in what they say*
> Tech/a is one of those two people
> ...




Thanks Brad. You are right. I have logged a lot of what has been said in this thread and am going to study it over the next few days (memorise, absorb, see what fits).

I really do appreciate most of what has been said to me here and i really do appreciate when people help! I guess it was a bit of information overload.

Probably time for me to watch some mindless American sitcom and take my mind off it 

I read and listen to what Tech/a says, and Trembling Hand.

And, i thank you too for your contribution to this thread.


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## James Austin (21 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> I don't know, i give up...
> 
> By the way, to the person who said "keep using sim", i have gone well beyond sim. I am using sim for the SPI. I think i'll go alright, just got to get my stops into place. I have already made 3k+ doing trades i would have done in real life, and am confident i can do more. It's just a matter of waiting for the right conditions.





sorry aussie, that didnt come out well.
however there is nothing wrong with being on sim until you are consistently profitable, week after week, month after month or year after year if need be.

if you can do this, then you've got yourself the makings of a robust trading plan as well as aptitude.

_side note: may i also suggest an IG account as a sim account. it is different to the traditional sim in that you will get "real account" prices; simply dont fund the account, execute orders as in real live trading, IG simply rejects the trade due to lack of funds, but the trade will be logged in your activities.
_
i am presently using this as i test and develop a SPI system i am working on.

to be continued . . . .


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## tech/a (21 April 2009)

Here is the overload of information.

Youve taken a Short SPI trade with a target of around 3200
You have your Stop at break even.

Enjoy the sitcom


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Here is the overload of information.
> 
> Youve taken a Short SPI trade with a target of around 3200
> You have your Stop at break even.
> ...




Okay, .

Thanks James.


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## ThingyMajiggy (21 April 2009)

What are you using to paper trade? Are you using some kind of demo account, I am interested in having a go, but can't seem to find anyone with a decent demo account, might be better off just watching it and writing my ideas down.

Keep up the good work, tech and TH are definitely worth listening to


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## beamstas (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Here is the overload of information.
> 
> Youve taken a Short SPI trade with a target of around 3200
> You have your Stop at break even.
> ...




Exactly

He is aiming for 3200
In my humble opinion - it may take two weeks or longer to reach this

Aussiest, work out which time frame you are trading first!

If you are investing for 15 years a 1 minute chart is no use to you
If you are day trading on a 1 minute chart a 15 year chart is of no use to you

Same goes here
Don't worry about what happens on the small time frame - intra day and day to day. A trend is rarely a swan dive down or a straight impulsive move up (can happen though)

The price *will most likely* move against you at some stage during the two weeks

Now that you are armed with this knowledge - you won't be so easily shaken out with a small move up

Because we are looking at the bigger picture

Hope this makes some kind of sence

Brad


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## Aussiest (21 April 2009)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What are you using to paper trade? Are you using some kind of demo account, I am interested in having a go, but can't seem to find anyone with a decent demo account




I'm using IG as my demo account...

Trembling Hand and tech/a: as i said before, i appreciate every bit of advice / help they can give me, no matter how harsh it seems sometimes :grinsking


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## tech/a (21 April 2009)

There are a few here who wonder what T/H and I look like.
So here is a pik taken reciently.
I'm the tall one.


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## MRC & Co (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> There are a few here who wonder what T/H and I look like.
> So here is a pik taken reciently.
> I'm the tall one.




Is that at the weigh-in?


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## tech/a (21 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Is that at the weigh-in?




Acadamy awards after party.
Ive mislaid my hand bag and T/H is breaking out the ICE.


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## beamstas (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> There are a few here who wonder what T/H and I look like.
> So here is a pik taken reciently.
> I'm the tall one.





The height difference is really pronuounced in this happy snap


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## James Austin (21 April 2009)

beamstas said:


> The height difference is really pronuounced in this happy snap





i was wondering what the hands were doing in techs photo


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## Wysiwyg (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> There are a few here who wonder what T/H and I look like.
> So here is a pik taken reciently.
> I'm the tall one.




Hmmm, that is interesting, I completely mistook you guys for egg-heads.


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## Trembling Hand (21 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> There are a few here who wonder what T/H and I look like.
> So here is a pik taken reciently.
> I'm the tall one.




To be fair this is the one that hasn't been photoshopped.


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## nunthewiser (21 April 2009)

cmon now , u boys are being really silly , we all know that tech/a and trembling hand are one and the same person


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## skc (21 April 2009)

I was pretty sure this is TH...

The trembling hand, prior career in sports... the clues are all there people.

Not sure about tech/a. I have not researched any cartoon characters from Adelaide.


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## nomore4s (21 April 2009)

Aussiest,

Stick with it mate. It's a long and hard journey sometimes but all the successful traders have done it tough at some stage, especially while learning.

From reading this thread it appears to me you are still a bit unsure about how you can best go about trading, chopping and changing, trying every new thing that you find but not being consistant at any of them - this is a stage I also went through until I realised what worked for me.

I would suggest just sitting down and working a few things out - like TH said know where you are going.

What markets are you going to trade?
What timeframe are you going to trade those markets in?
Are you going to use FA, TA, a mixture of both, tea leaves or some other form of analysis?
Will this analysis suit your market & timeframe? Will it provide profitable opportunities?
Establish entry & exit rules. Have a plan.
Employ good money & trade management.
Is this system/method profitable in the market and timeframe you wish to trade?
And as TH says practice & review constantly but be consistant in what you do.

There are plenty of people on this site that will help you. Good luck


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## tech/a (22 April 2009)

*Personal Bias Risk.*



> Watching the Wall Street indicies and noticing they were trading up. The fall on the US was so big last night that there is sure to be a small rebound tonight, thus pushing our market up a little. I am still bearish for the medium term though.




They did and we didnt.
Let the market dictate.
Your opinion isnt going to shift the market.
Unless thats you George!


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## Aussiest (22 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Unless thats you George!




Haha


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## tech/a (23 April 2009)

Now your looking for that opportunity to pyramid.
Also looking for a place to raise that trailing stop from B/E to a little higher.

What do you reckon Aussie!

Or have you pulled the pin again?


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## tech/a (24 April 2009)

Yesterdays high would be a good place for a stop for a pyramid today into the current short.


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## Trembling Hand (24 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Yesterdays high would be a good place for a stop for a pyramid today into the current short.




I would use 12 ticks over last nights SYCO(M)


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## Aussiest (24 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Now your looking for that opportunity to pyramid.
> Also looking for a place to raise that trailing stop from B/E to a little higher.
> 
> What do you reckon Aussie!
> ...




Thanks for asking tech.

Well, i made a mess of this one (don't ask).

The things i have learned are this:

1. Decide which timeframe you are trading (thanks to all of you who drummed this concept into my head); whether it's intraday, few days at at time or a few weeks. I think i am most comfortable with a few weeks, but i don't mind the occasional intraday trade either.

2. Look at appropriate charts for timeframe. 

	Eg. Yearly, last few months for medium term trade

	Eg. Last few weeks, daily and minute by minute charts for intraday - identify   support and resistance levels. 

2. Position sizing. Yes, i finally get it... If you are sure about your direction, can do 1/2 position now and leave half for later.

3. Patience. Do not panic. If i calculate my position carefully and have reasons for entering (weight of evidence), then i will feel more comfortable with my position. 

Patience is also important when determining entry. Do not panic and settle for second best, be patient and wait for your entry. Do not compromise (another limitation of mine).

4. Initial stop loss - still working on this i admit. Not sure whether to set % of position value, just above or below support or resistance (depending on direction). *Grr*… will be working on this over the weekend. 

I now, however, have woken up to the importance of trailing stops. Still unsure as to exact % away from position to set them, but am assuming tighter for shorter term trades, and looser for longer term.

Right now, i am not sure where the broader market is heading, so i am taking time out and will think about it over the weekend. Am going to plan a long and short entry, with reasons. Will post here and *stick with it*.


Summary (i need to do this for my own sake): plan carefully, work out timeframe, have reasons for entering <and preferably for exiting>, position size carefully, stops <have to work on this>, patience for entering and exiting).


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## Cartman (24 April 2009)

i reckon ya doing pretty bludy good Aussie  ---- well done for having the ticker to put your stuff out there for scrutiny


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## beamstas (24 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> 2. Position sizing. Yes, i finally get it... If you are sure about your direction, can do 1/2 position now and leave half for later.




Not quite position sizing..
but it's a start..

Brad


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## Aussiest (24 April 2009)

You don't know unless you try. I really appreciate what everyone tells me here


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## tech/a (26 April 2009)

So Monday.

*The dilema.*

Leave the stop on the Pyramided trade where it is *OR* move it up to B/E.

Personally I would be moving to B/E. I like to see a trade move immediately and convincingly in my favor. Happy to let a pyramid go at B/E if hit and re assess the next opportunity.
Its a personal choice but as we have the opportunity to limit loss then I like to take it.


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## Aussiest (27 April 2009)

Hmm, yes. Well, the market hasn't been moving 'convincingly' in my direction, so i would move the pyramided position to b/e.

What's possible:

1. SPI will find weak support at 3,800 and continue till around 4,100 before a correction back to 3,600 or 3,500.

2. SPI shies away from 3,800 as usual and corrects back down to 3.650 (don't forget this support level) or 3,500.

3. SPI finds support at 3,800 and trends upward for a while, with small corrections along the way.

3. Anything's possible. Maybe we all have no clue 

Thoughts:

SPI has tested 3,800 resistance 3 times since Dec/Jan 09. This fourth one is particularly important: SP has been hovering, news not so bad in US.  

Reporting season in the US was "better than expected" last week. Hence one surprise day on wed/thurs, and a strong end to the week on Friday with 1.5% rise.

Nice green candle on last trading day, although it didn't gap up. Could be a worry.

Slight changes in short term trends every month or so. Statistically speaking, we are due for a change mid-late next week.

Also, have to remember that 3,100 was a significant low. Sentiment would have to be shattered in order for it to reach that again, or even 3,300. Is that possible? What news could possibly do that?

Interesting news to come this week:

ANZ and NAB to report half year results
US GDP March Qtr results
2 minor reports AUS: new home sales & private sector credit data (not market movers IMO).

And, then there's the future of GM, which could move the market in June.

Right now, i'd be aiming for a short around 4000-4,100. So, let's see


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## Aussiest (27 April 2009)

I don't think this rally's quite had it's run. Next few days perhaps?


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## tech/a (27 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> I don't think this rally's quite had it's run. Next few days perhaps?




We do know that moves up or down dont move in one direction from top to bottom, Bottom to top without periods of pause.
As the original analysis is looking for a prolonged down move then we would be expecting this pause.


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## beamstas (27 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> 1. SPI will find weak support at 3,800 and continue till around 4,100 before a correction back to 3,600 or 3,500.




Where did you get these numbers? Have you found these points on a graph or are you just assuming what the market will do?



Aussiest said:


> 2. SPI shies away from 3,800 as usual and corrects back down to 3.650 (don't forget this support level) or 3,500.




IMO this one is the most likely, we should reject 3820 and if not 3850. If we push through 3850 then red flags might start arising



Aussiest said:


> 3. SPI finds support at 3,800 and trends upward for a while, with small corrections along the way.




It is still in an uptrend, albeit a weak-overlapping one. Higher highs and lower lows.  3800 is a significant level, but not so significant as 3820 & 3850



Aussiest said:


> 3. Anything's possible. Maybe we all have no clue




Yep. I have no idea what the market will do either. It is a mighty beast very hard to tame



Aussiest said:


> Right now, i'd be aiming for a short around 4000-4,100. So, let's see




I currently have a short on the SPI, but if we move up i may be stopped out. Looking to re-enter around 3820 (if the run up is weak), or 3850 should we push up impulsively in the next few days. Should we break 3850 i won't be looking to open any positions at all, i'll just stand aside

Cheers,
Brad


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## Aussiest (27 April 2009)

beamstas said:


> Where did you get these numbers? Have you found these points on a graph or are you just assuming what the market will do?




Yes, i got them off chart. 3829 is more precise, guess i was a bit slack with my numbers.

I got the 4000-4100 from the small kick up on the LHS.


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## tech/a (27 April 2009)

Why are you both going into the ---if this does this stuff?
Just set the trade as Ive done and let it play out.


We will either have the pyramid stopped which will mean we have one open postion short or we will have an open position short with 2 contracts.

There is more numbers there than a phone book.
More predictions and what if's than an astrologer.


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## beamstas (27 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Why are you both going into the ---if this does this stuff?
> Just set the trade as Ive done and let it play out.
> 
> 
> ...




HA, I'll be trading Gann before i know it 

Cheers,
Brad


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## Aussiest (27 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> More predictions and what if's than an astrologer.




Lol.

Enter 3780, s/l at 3820?! Lol.


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## tech/a (27 April 2009)

Just as there are 5 waves in the direction of the trend there are 3 in the corrective move. So stopped out of the pyramid, should have waited for the 3 legs.

Next opportunity if support is broken.


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