# AVO - Avoca Resources



## Nicks (2 February 2006)

bought in at 20c just over a year ago, hit 40c by last Feb, hit 60c late last year.

backed up by solid news - actual results (finding lots of gold and moving into production - soon things will get moving) PLUS Gold price is only going higher.

all this = 20c, 40c, 60c next 80c, $1, $1.50, $2, and longer term (yes this company actually has a future viability) $5, $10 etc 

it has the stats and the backing for this call. look at similar outcomes for simlilar stocks in gold (eg Lihir) and in similar cap and industry (eg Paladin - bought in at 0.50c, sold at $1.02, now $3.50 - not making this mistake again with AVO)

Some say gold will hit $1000 USD an ounce (and I believe it the way its going) - plus if you look at why gold prices go high, things like uncertainty, terrorism, conflict etc etc

Gold is a precious metal commodity and there is only so much in the ground (supply / demand).

SHOW ME THE AVO   

I make analysis and calls with research, data and strategic thinking. If im on the money, look out for my next thumbs up (or down) and judge for yourself.


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## Nicks (2 February 2006)

This will be the next PDN.


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## stiger (7 June 2006)

*avo  avoca resources*

Avoca Resources 1 mill oz inferred resource .Contender or not?


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## Nicks (6 July 2006)

Big contender. They are sitting on 1 million oz gold resource.
If cost of mining the Gold is around $200 per oz, then they have $450-500 US oz profit. Do the math then....
Check out the market cap of this stock! Fundamentally this stock is severly undervalued and can only go up significantly.


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## Nicks (7 July 2006)

Nicks said:
			
		

> Big contender. They are sitting on 1 million oz gold resource.
> If cost of mining the Gold is around $200 per oz, then they have $450-500 US oz profit. Do the math then....
> Check out the market cap of this stock! Fundamentally this stock is severly undervalued and can only go up significantly.




---- and up 6% today


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## stiger (7 July 2006)

Very positive report today MR Nicks,You must be well pleased,  I am in this one for the long haul,cheers.


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## Rafa (2 August 2006)

AVO resource upgrade seems to have lit a fuse under the stock...

Its been on a strong uptrend since 2004... and just about to breach its all time high...


(tho i just noticed a gap at 84 - 85cents)


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## Rafa (3 August 2006)

AVO continues to fly... 

Previously it was mentioned this stock is undervalued?
What is it value?


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## Nicks (3 August 2006)

Very pleased. Been promoting this stock for some time now. Still well undervalued IMO based on resource base and market cap.
Last few times I made this call the stock has soared.  Just spewing I didnt get my Aug tips in on time, as AVO is a usual tip for me (was in July).
World tensions aint getting better soon, so time to bet on Gold over stocks IMO.


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## alankew (3 August 2006)

Been following a thread about rounding bottoms  ,looking at the charts on tradingroom.com for AVO would it fit into this category.Just learning about this so apologies if i have got it wrong


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## Sean K (3 August 2006)

From the ASX web site:

A rounded bottom is the result of gentle change in trend. It is quite subtle while it is in progress and only obvious once complete. The bar that creates the low is not all that significant in this pattern, but the price is very important. The bars on the left of the actual bottom make progressively and gradually lower lows, while the bars on the right of the bottom reverse that trend, making slightly higher lows at first and then increasingly higher lows as we move further away from the low.

A rounded bottom can be used as confirmation of a low, and therefore as a major reference point. It can be important as a major signal for trend change.

The AVO chart displays a short rounded bottom as indicated. The period 14 May to now could be one large rounded bottom, but you'd be stretching it.


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## ALFguy (3 August 2006)

Could someone explain what the U symbol is on the buy side? Not sure if it's specific to ETrade. Undisclosed bid? 


No.       Qty       Price

5	56400/U	   0.930


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## Nicks (3 August 2006)

Undisclosed (not an etrade thing, ASX i would think)


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## ALFguy (3 August 2006)

Thanks Nicks, but what does this mean?

How, and more importantly why, would there be an undisclosed bid?


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## Nicks (4 August 2006)

Good question... anyone? and how is it that they can have the right to do so?


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## Kauri (12 August 2006)

For mine has formed a cup and handle and exceeded the commonly expected target... time to tighten stops?


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## MichaelD (12 August 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Could someone explain what the U symbol is on the buy side? Not sure if it's specific to ETrade. Undisclosed bid?
> 
> 
> No.       Qty       Price
> ...



It means there is a large buy order in the market depth. From memory, I think it is a single order for greater than 150,000 shares that shows up as U. Once the order is brought under 150,000, the actual amount appears in the depth.


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## bvbfan (13 August 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> It means there is a large buy order in the market depth. From memory, I think it is a single order for greater than 150,000 shares that shows up as U. Once the order is brought under 150,000, the actual amount appears in the depth.




It actually by value not number of shares $200,000 minimum, here is a link to the asx site which has info on undisclosed


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## Chief Wigam (30 August 2006)

Nice looking chart. support at 1.10.


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## Nicks (9 October 2006)

I wonder if people don't like stocks that start with tht letter A.

This stock has not generated much interest in discussion on this forum, yet it has excellent fundamentals (high gold price, they are sitting on a lot of gold that is going to be coming out of the ground next year, they own 25% interest in ENR Encounter Resources, a Uranium Miner, Uranium at its highest levels), and a relatively low share price.

Based on the amount of Gold it is going to get out of the ground minus costs alone this stock si worth mucm much more than this, let alone its other minerals and ENR stake.


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## Nicks (10 October 2006)

With global tensions now, people testing nuclear bombs, people running nuclear power, what do you think will happen to Gold and Uranium prices?

AVO - future returns on Gold production pumping out next year, large stake in ENR whom have Uranium prospects. Increase in geopolitical tensions sends Gold soaring. Im guessing that next year will be tense the way things are going with N Korea and the mid east problems.

This stock is good value and more importantly will be attracting alot of attention soon, especially when they start mining the Gold in 2007, but by then the share price will reflect that - what does this mean? now is an opportunity to own some of this company with excellent prospets for gains, 2007 is not that far away now.


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## Nicks (10 October 2006)

Hey Chief Wigam (or anyone else) - any chance of some expertise and some Technical Analysis of this?


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## Nicks (11 October 2006)

Up over 5% on rumours of takeover or announcement, hmmmm


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## deftfear (11 October 2006)

Do you know what these rumours are Nicks? I was expecting a decent drop today thanks to the POG, so I am quite pleasently suprised by today's 5 1/2% jump.


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## Nicks (1 November 2006)

Looks like the announcement on 24th. Funding to start ramping up production at Trident!

Look at the fundamentals of this little beauty. This stock stands out as it is not driven only by speculation. It has solid underlying value, real life projects, great fundamentals and a now steadying historically high gold price. 
This is the undervalued cheapie of all the 2nd tier new generation of big miners, while people are focussing on some of the others such as OXR, Lihir etc this one stands out as a big potential gainer CG wise when realisation of that it has been left behind in SP gains becomes apparent and the pumping out of its mines starts next year (only 2 months away!).


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## Nicks (3 November 2006)

Well I think that realisation I was talking about is starting to kick in! I still think this is an excellent buy and will pay off especially in 2007. The SP CG should also begin more and mroe to reflect this, and the momentum seems to be starting in the past couple of weeks, and especially today!


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## GreatPig (4 November 2006)

Sorry to break in on your monologue Nicks, but here's a chart for AVO showing Friday's bounce back off the recent trend line.

Cheers,
GP


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## Sean K (5 November 2006)

Your charts are the best GP.    So clear.


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## GreatPig (5 November 2006)

Well I don't like them cluttered with heaps of indicators, which I mostly don't use anyway. I have separate charts for the few I sometimes look at, one of the benefits of using AmiBroker.

And as with most computer programs I use, since I'm using computers most of the day by profession, I like to keep things high-contrast: darker colours on white backgrounds. I don't like all these pastels and greys that some people have that give low contrast.

Cheers,
GP


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## Rafa (5 November 2006)

After trading this a few times over the last few months, but finally entered in two weeks ago at 1.25 for the mid - long term.

I think i'll be holding this for the next little while now as the Feasibility study is released in a couple of weeks or so.

its my only gold play left now... 
but GP's chart gives me good confidence for the ride ahead... Thanks.


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

Been doing a little research on this and it looks promising. I am now only really looking at goldies that might have more than 2 m oz of resource and this may get there with their main project (Higginsville) having 1.1 m oz JORC but the project has lodes open in all sorts of directions and the recent drilling came up with some great results which are now been placed into a revised resource estimate and a PFS was supposed to be completed by the end of Oct and due to be ann in Nov. If they increase the estimate considerably this will give the sp quite a boost. I might take a small bite and await the results. If they have closer to 2m oz, then I might take another.    Or if it's crap sell.  : 

I see a cup and handle in the chart.  

Down side limited to about $1.15. Looks like a good trade atm with gold going up. 

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/


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## Sean K (8 November 2006)

Breaking out. At $1.43 atm, looking good. Gold down a bit so this is very positive. I'm in, until this break is unproven.


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## Rafa (8 November 2006)

yeah, surprising move by AVO, no news, and a general down day in the market.
Somethings up.... 

Are you in Kennas?


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## Sean K (8 November 2006)

Yep.

I think the ann will be as I said above:

'a revised resource estimate and a PFS was supposed to be completed by the end of Oct and due to be ann in Nov.'

Good luck.


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## Sean K (9 November 2006)

AVO broken out again, finished at $1.44 yesterday. Probably come off a little today with the rest of gold, taking a break after recent strong gains and misconceptions about Democrats being bad for POG. Ha. 

Expectations about the FS ann comng out will probably keep this strong.


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## Rafa (9 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Probably come off a little today with the rest of gold, taking a break after recent strong gains and misconceptions about Democrats being bad for POG. Ha.




Is that cause its only republicans who start wars!!!     
Whoops, wrong thread...


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## Sean K (10 November 2006)

New weakish support now established at $1.40, with good support around $1.30. This has had a great year. Hope it can keep it up. Probably needing POG to keep going up, but this has not really been tracking it. The projects it's working on are obviously driving the company.


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## Sean K (14 November 2006)

Tested $1.40 twice and moved up. Good sign. Early days, but good sign.


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## Sean K (17 November 2006)

Hmmm, broken $1.40 intraday. Little alarm bells ringing for me. Damn $US strength is killing gold stocks atm. 

I have to put a stop in somewhere for this as not happy with overall market sentiment. Don't want to get caught out. I'm still expecting around $1.40 to be support so a close below this will be worrying. Perhaps $1.35 is a sell, and watch for another entry....


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## deftfear (17 November 2006)

AVO hasnt seemed to have followed the POG too much Kennas, since the may correction it has more than doubled while gold hasn't done much at all. Merril Lynch has a $2 price target for AVO, there is a 26 page report on it at http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_200611.pdf

My opinion of AVO looking at the charts is it takes a spurt upwards, consolidates for a week or so, then starts it's next spurt. Each high is usually around 10 cents higher, and the low about 10 cents higher as well, so a low of $1.30-1.35 is what I am expecting, thinking of topping up again around there, but I was saying that around 1.05 and 1.25 as well


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## Sean K (17 November 2006)

deftfear said:
			
		

> AVO hasnt seemed to have followed the POG too much Kennas, since the may correction it has more than doubled while gold hasn't done much at all. Merril Lynch has a $2 price target for AVO, there is a 26 page report on it at http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_200611.pdf
> 
> My opinion of AVO looking at the charts is it takes a spurt upwards, consolidates for a week or so, then starts it's next spurt. Each high is usually around 10 cents higher, and the low about 10 cents higher as well, so a low of $1.30-1.35 is what I am expecting, thinking of topping up again around there, but I was saying that around 1.05 and 1.25 as well



Yeah, you are right about the AVO/POG relationship. There doesn't seem to be one. Vely interestink. Should have seen that I suppose.    The FS is supposed to be out soon. Perhaps I just hold on.


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## Sean K (17 November 2006)

deftfear said:
			
		

> AVO hasnt seemed to have followed the POG too much Kennas, since the may correction it has more than doubled while gold hasn't done much at all. Merril Lynch has a $2 price target for AVO, there is a 26 page report on it at http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_200611.pdf
> 
> My opinion of AVO looking at the charts is it takes a spurt upwards, consolidates for a week or so, then starts it's next spurt. Each high is usually around 10 cents higher, and the low about 10 cents higher as well, so a low of $1.30-1.35 is what I am expecting, thinking of topping up again around there, but I was saying that around 1.05 and 1.25 as well



Thanks for the link too. Gives me more confidence in it!


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## deftfear (17 November 2006)

Their website also has a report by Patterson's, both reports are very bullish, a fair bit of reading there between the 2 reports, but very interesting too.


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## Rafa (17 November 2006)

agreed, the market conditions in general (as oppposed to the POG specifically) out there are certainly not favourable...

an announcement would be good, hope it can hover around 1.40 till then...
but i am certain i will be holding this thru the storm...
maybe buy some more...


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## Nicks (22 November 2006)

Gold up, commodity sotcks up, AVO not up (in fact down a fraction) - good buying opportunity as the market hasnt caught up with AVO - (or will in the last few minutes or tomorrow!!)


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## Sean K (22 November 2006)

Nicks said:
			
		

> Gold up, commodity sotcks up, AVO not up (in fact down a fraction) - good buying opportunity as the market hasnt caught up with AVO - (or will in the last few minutes or tomorrow!!)



Gold has been going down and sideways for the past 6 months but look at AVO. Perhaps it's an inverse correlation! I bought when it 'broke through' $1.40, but have just seen it drift and go down, just slightly. Mighten't be the 'break out' I had hoped for and I might put the cash to use elsewhere. Maybe a good vino or two....Or, maybe I'll give it a few more days to stay above the medium term trend which seems definately UP!


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## GreatPig (22 November 2006)

Patience Grasshopper 

The price is tracking the recent trendline well and hopefully will push up again very shortly. There is a bit of RSI divergence though, so worth keeping a close eye on.



> I might put the cash to use elsewhere



Whenever I do that, the price immediately takes off afterwards.

I recently got bored waiting for REA, VBA, and DLS to start moving, and they all did from practically the moment I sold 

GP


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## Rafa (22 November 2006)

please sell GP...
your holding this stock back!


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## Sean K (24 November 2006)

Sell now GP, it's hitting a critical support line...


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## Rafa (24 November 2006)

yup, its the moment of truth...

GP...
where are you???


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## Sean K (24 November 2006)

$1.30 looks like a support line. Will probably bounce around there.


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## Nicks (24 November 2006)

Ahh yes but we are overlooking something - THE FUNDAMENTALS PEOPLE

Here comes the slingshot up to $2+. Work it out, based on their reserves, cost of operations, revenues coming in, this stock is worth much more than its current market cap.


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## CanOz (24 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> $1.30 looks like a support line. Will probably bounce around there.




As expected:


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## GreatPig (24 November 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> GP...
> where are you???



Internet was down at work nearly all day. Didn't have a clue what was happening today until about 3.45pm.

I actually got a sell signal for this stock yesterday...

GP


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## Sean K (26 November 2006)

That long tail on Friday is a good sign I think. Gold price should give this enough reason to rebound Monday. I hope..


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## Sean K (27 November 2006)

How about the bounce off $1.30? Going to script.


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## Sean K (4 December 2006)

GP, you must have sold.    It's turned around and heading back up by the look. MACD converging on the up. Nice hammer candle today. Noice!


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## GreatPig (4 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> GP, you must have sold



Aw... how did you guess? 

But I bought MRE instead, which is doing better so far.

GP


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## Rafa (5 December 2006)

Thanks GP...   
finally this stock can get a move on... 

Must admit, my patience is wearing thin


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## Sean K (5 December 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> Thanks GP...
> finally this stock can get a move on...
> 
> Must admit, my patience is wearing thin



Hhhmmm, down today, not expected. Not sure what POG is doing. Is this perhaps in relation to the Norseman acquisition? Will initially be costly perhaps.  

Be patient Rafa, remember this has had a massive 1 year return.


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## GreatPig (5 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Hhhmmm, down today, not expected



Sheesh... I _always_ expect my stocks to go down...

...and I'm rarely disappointed! 

GP


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## Rafa (7 December 2006)

Its fallen thru the support line now!   

My head tells me to sell
My heart tells me to keep...


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## Sean K (7 December 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> Its fallen thru the support line now!
> 
> My head tells me to sell
> My heart tells me to keep...



I might be out under $1.30.


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## Rafa (7 December 2006)

i'm still holding but not reall sure why...

Where is the BFS!!!


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## Sean K (12 December 2006)

I'm still in but very close to pulling the pin until it looks like it's going to recover. Really need to bounce off this general support level around $1.25.

Anyone got any clues to the correction?


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## deftfear (12 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm still in but very close to pulling the pin until it looks like it's going to recover. Really need to bounce off this general support level around $1.25.
> 
> Anyone got any clues to the correction?




The DFS was meant to be out ages ago, maybe people have had enough waiting to see it, the AGM presentation says that it has been completed but why hasn't it been released to the market? Or don't these get released?  If I recall correctly they are meant to begin mining early next year and we haven't had any news regarding that yet either. No news at all in fact, which always gives the stock price a boost.


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## deftfear (12 December 2006)

At these prices I'm looking at getting topping up my holding, but no $$ to do so. I bought in at $0.71 and not around $1.40 like you Kennas so for me it doesn't have as much risk, it could go down to a dollar and I would still be in profit (although I have lost a fair bit from the highs of $1.50)


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## Sean K (14 December 2006)

I'm out. The ann should have driven it it. Going down.....poor darts.  

It might bounce off $1.25, but I'm not risking it at the moment. Bigger fish to fry!


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## Sean K (14 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm out. The ann should have driven it it. Going down.....poor darts.
> 
> It might bounce off $1.25, but I'm not risking it at the moment. Bigger fish to fry!



LOL.

I think it went up 3% immediately after I sold it. You're rubbing off on me GP.


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## Rafa (14 December 2006)

Incredible...
If your the new GP Kennas, maybe i should buy back in now...

ah... you gotta laugh sometimes...


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## Sean K (14 December 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> Incredible...
> If your the new GP Kennas, maybe i should buy back in now...
> 
> ah... you gotta laugh sometimes...



Well, next time I sell something I'll let you know so you can have a buy ready.

I'm thinking I have to sell HSP at the moment. Ducati has given it a $0.50 ish valuation and it's currently trading at $5.50ish.    I've got about 5000 of them so my $27.5K is actually only worth $2.5K! I'll PM you. LOL


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## Rafa (14 December 2006)

I think there will be a time when AVO will fly, but its not right now...

I will certainly be revisiting the stock, but in today market, when there are other stocks putting on few % a day, a stock that is sitting still, let alone going backwards, is costing money.


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## Sean K (15 December 2006)

This looks to have definately fallen over. Very disappointing. The t/a might be proven wrong, it's just a probability, but it's looking very sick. Turned just after I bought in, when it was looking outstanding!   

Hope it turns soon for long term holders.


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## Rafa (15 December 2006)

oh dear...
its looking very sick and sorry now...


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## Nicks (28 December 2006)

Time to revisit then!

Nothing wrong with a pull back every now and then to let off some steam. The fundamentals for this stock are still very strong and benchmarked against similar ASX companies this has yet to stamp its ground. I think another medium run as it has done over the last 6 months is going to begin from this point, with a goal of $2 by March / April.


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## GreatPig (2 January 2007)

Up about 12% at the moment. Nice bounce off $1.20, but now at the $1.40 resistance.

Cheers,
GP


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## Nicks (2 January 2007)

Thanks GP. Thats what I was thinking would happen. Now it just needs to crack the 1.40 and heads toward the $2 as I expect it will and receive a fair valuation in line and benchmarked with similar companies. $1.40 for this stock seems comparatively undervalued imo and I think shareholders are starting to catch on. Should pay healthy profits this year 2007 and 2008 once Higginsville starts to pump out. Thats if a bigger miner doesnt decide to make a grab for AVO. 
Interestingly they hold 25% I think of ENR which made a stellar jump 20% today. Coincidnce that they have both jumped significantly today? or something brewing?
Will be a nice confirmation if the moves continue higher again tomorrow for both. Perhaps the market took notice today.


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## Rafa (2 January 2007)

I think todays jump has more to do with ENR than anything else...

once the market see's a company has Uranium, they will buy it up regardless of fundamentals...

In AVO's case, the fundmentals have always been outstanding... but as usual, it takes the word Uranium to drive the share price!


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## Chief Wigam (2 January 2007)

I read today that Patersons still maintain a strong BUY on AVO.


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## Nicks (2 January 2007)

Apparently several brokers or fund managers are listing AVO as one of their top picks for 2007. Thats interest that is good enough for me.


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## Sean K (2 January 2007)

Nicks said:
			
		

> Apparently several brokers or fund managers are listing AVO as one of their top picks for 2007. Thats interest that is good enough for me.



Which ones Nicks? I sold out a little while ago and would be interested in some more broker analysis. Cheers.


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## Nicks (3 January 2007)

Kennas check out WA newspapers Sat (remember I dont make stuff up on this forum). 

Apparently (I say apparently as this is info I got third hand) 12 WA brokers picked their top stocks for 2007 and AVO was mentioned by 4 of them.

The others were:
Avoca Resources (4 picks), WA News (4), Fleetwood (3), Woodside (3), Wesfarmers (2), Peet (2), Fox Resources (2), PCH group (2)

Looks pretty strong for AVO.

Pattersons, Merryl Lynch and Hartleys all rate AVO a buy or strong buy.

It will hit 1.50 today easy imo, maybe higher, probably $2 soon. It has the support, the media talking, the gold price up. All this = share price up.

Kennas, I think this is a good stock fundamentally (have for some time) hence didnt sell out with fluctations, these are normal. I dont see Gold going down any time soon for a long long time. Once AVO starts pumping out the ground it is only up for the SP and some nice dividends or other projects - in fact apparently they have another big project in the pipeline right now. Not too late Kennas.


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## Nicks (3 January 2007)

'Intersuisse recommending a buy to clientelle.'


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## Sean K (3 January 2007)

Nicks said:
			
		

> 'Intersuisse recommending a buy to clientelle.'



Thanks Nicks, seems everyone is recommending it!

I've found that Merrily Lunching have it as a Buy, High Risk, too.

(not holding)


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## greggy (3 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Which ones Nicks? I sold out a little while ago and would be interested in some more broker analysis. Cheers.



Hi kennas,
I think from my reading of the newspaper that Pattersons were tipping this one.  I as yet do not own any.  There are only so many stocks one can follow.
DYOR


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## Nicks (4 January 2007)

I think the pullback today represents an excellent buying opportunity for both short gains when it hits 1.50 again and also for longer term holders like me whom expect logn term price over $2 and dividends once they start producing this year. 
So Greggy and Kennas now is as good a time as any, better buying today then yesterday or tomorrow while the SP has retreated a bit, check it out some more.


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## kgee (4 January 2007)

Just noticed fat prophets has a sell recommendation on AVO...while they are comfortable with long term they see now as a good time to take short term profits


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## Nicks (4 January 2007)

Fat Prohpets is probably one of the worst worst recommenders. Im very glad I haven't bought stock they have recommended in the past. They often lose and usually have an excuse as to why. I'd rather play poker with my money then buy on Fat Prophets recommendations. 2nd worst are Intelligent Investor. They both play it up big time when they get one right, but down play, hush hush or have a million reasons why a stock they picked went down.

So, IMO I would not heed what Fat Prophets say about this stock or any others for that matter. I guess their pockets are getting Fat from the market hype and thats about it. Id trust the Brokers, Banks and Fund Managers.


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## skegsi (8 January 2007)

Just out of interest is there any sites that have info on what the brokers, banks and fund managers are buying?


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## Nicks (9 January 2007)

kgee said:
			
		

> Just noticed fat prophets has a sell recommendation on AVO...while they are comfortable with long term they see now as a good time to take short term profits




AVO up to 1.45 now. If Fat Prophets were a stock they would have gone into Administration by now. Guess the guys at Fat got into the game while the market was hot and found a nice little business with a fancy quirky name, as its probably the only thing they are making their money on. Sorry to all those who listened to yet more bad Fat Prophet advice and sold this stock short, which has gone up strongly in the last few days since.


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## LifeisShort (9 January 2007)

Fat Prophets is listed on the ASX......and its not in administration


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## scsl (9 January 2007)

LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Fat Prophets is listed on the ASX......and its not in administration



Just for clarification, this is not the actual company 'Fat Prophets' but a listed investment company (which goes by the ASX code: FAT), which Fat Prophets created.


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## windwalker (8 February 2007)

Still holding, how about you Nicks?


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## speves (8 February 2007)

AVO SP has got great potential for growth and ResourceStocks mag voted it as the No2 Explorer of the year ahead of Image Resources in December.  I have been looking for an oppourtunity to get in but the chart is currently indicating  a decending SP at the moment.  29/30 Jan saw the RSI drop below index.  Most likely will drop back to the 1.20 support level before a recovery, and that would be my buy point.


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## Nicks (27 February 2007)

windwalker said:
			
		

> Still holding, how about you Nicks?




Been holding since I started this thread, when I bought in at 0.21c.

I have bought several large parcels since, with an average buy of 0.70c.

SRK is another thread I started when I bought in at 0.35c. This one however I unfortunately sold out at 1.00.

I wont make the same mistake with AVO. All the signs, and experts, are tipping gold to hit US$1000 an ounce. Coincidently this seems to be perfectly timed with when AVO will start pulling their gold out of the ground, by which time we should see excellent capital gains to reflect the dividends it will pay. 

If you are unsure, work out: 
(estimated reserves - cost of production) x current gold price = Highly undervalued. To be really sure, work it out at a gold price of US$500 ounce, still highly undervalued. Most of AVOs feasability studies were done in US$400 an ounce!

Add to this their speculative interests in Uranium with not only their large stake in ENR (Encounter Resources) + their large stakes in ENRs projects with AVO holding a large share of JV projects. 

You get a solid mining stock with proven production plus the added benefit of the chance of hitting it big with Uranium as a bonus, without risking your investment.


----------



## Nicks (27 February 2007)

Anyone want to give some technical analysis? looks like it has started to enter the recovery phase.

Certainly the fundamentals are looking good to support this.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (27 February 2007)

Nicks said:
			
		

> Anyone want to give some technical analysis? looks like it has started to enter the recovery phase.
> 
> Certainly the fundamentals are looking good to support this.




Would have to agree with you Nicks and have been accumalting AVO in recent weeks.
A new higher support seems to have been found this time around and AVO is in a general uptrend.
Fundamentally they have a lot going for them in 07, a ridiculous amount considering their market cap. Nice resource base and commodities spread in a tight market place


----------



## CanOz (27 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Would have to agree with you Nicks and have been accumalting AVO in recent weeks.
> A new higher support seems to have been found this time around and AVO is in a general uptrend.
> Fundamentally they have a lot going for them in 07, a ridiculous amount considering their market cap. Nice resource base and commodities spread in a tight market place




Still really consolidating, but is bouncing off the 13 ema nicely now on the daily chart. 

If the POG stays bullish then a challenge to the October high looks very possible...not enough in it technically for me, but an EW technician may be able to get something out of it.

Cheers,


----------



## Nicks (1 March 2007)

CBA are coming heavily on board.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 March 2007)

This ones solid Nicks, I'm on board for the haul........bring on Trident, the U potential.....and heaven forbid some high grade hematite in a core sample, now that would be nice


----------



## gunditrader (1 March 2007)

A little fundamental analysis  on the higginsville project (its my first one so go easy)  ...... looks like a bargain.


	Avoca 	Market Cap	$194,000,000					
	company forecast production 160-190ktpa				Production cost p ounce A$369

ounces pa	160,000 	160,000 	160,000 	160,000 	160,000 	160,000 	160,000 	

cash cost A$	 $369 	 $400 	 $450 	 $369 	 $400 	 $450 	 $500 	

au A$	             $600       $600     	 $600 	 $800 	 $800      $800 	 $800 	

EBITDA   A$ pa								
	 $36,960,000 	 $32,000,000 	 $24,000,000 	 $68,960,000 	 $64,000,000 	 $56,000,000 	 $48,000,000 	

EV/EBITDA	5.25 	6.06 	8.08 	2.81 	3.03 	3.46 	4.04 	


	 ++++++ 							

	 Exploration upside


----------



## Bullion (29 March 2007)

Some good ann's of late and volume/SP increasing too. Can anyone here speculate wether AVO is on the up only short term?


----------



## Bullion (2 April 2007)

Trading Halt this morning.

What on earth is a "potentially material" transaction?


----------



## doctorj (2 April 2007)

Some kind of corporate action - placement, raising, rights issue, convertible notes, merger, acquisition, take over.


----------



## Bullion (2 April 2007)

Thanks doc, thought it was babble for something a little more specific...


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (17 April 2007)

Have taken an exit in AVO today, although will take up the SPP. With recent dilution..... chances are it will range trend 'near term'.

Still like them fundamentally, but just trading the initial plan  .


----------



## disarray (18 April 2007)

I also intend to buy into the SPP. Question - why take an exit if you are going buy back in? I'm new to trading so am curious about your mindset.

I have a small parcel I bought at 73c, SPP is offering at 1.32 and price today is peaking at 1.60.


----------



## Bullion (18 April 2007)

I sold out a few days ago, but still received the SPP form today. Is it possible to still buy in? Or because I'm no longer a holder, I can't?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (18 April 2007)

Dissaray,

Not quite sure what your point is. AVO was purely a recent trade for me, they reached my profit target and I exited. 
Thats not to say at the right entry I wouldn't trade AVO again.
In regard to the SPP, you answered that one yourself with the SP .


----------



## Nicks (20 April 2007)

Bullion said:


> I sold out a few days ago, but still received the SPP form today. Is it possible to still buy in? Or because I'm no longer a holder, I can't?




Bullion check the record date, if you were a holder as of that date you can still buy.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (23 April 2007)

AVO are trending towards support again at $1.40ish.

Recent share placement/Capex dilution at $1.32, Trident ramp up and first ore out in June. 

10 percent slippage in the SP the last few days, towards the placement price

Potentially another short term trade opportunity .


----------



## mildew79 (23 April 2007)

potential entry point @ support. stochastic indicator suggests stock is oversold but considering the placement this is pretty normal. would be surprised if this stock rallied before hitting this buy point


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## Nicks (23 July 2007)

Nice. Broken the 1.50 resistance it has had for so long. Value of Gold and the increased portfolio of their tangible mining ventures, plus continued upgrades of their reserves is looking pretty promising for Avoca. 
Add to this that production is starting. Getting close to making it into a permanent space in the mid-tiers of Australian Mining.


----------



## hypnotic (23 July 2007)

Nicks said:


> Nice. Broken the 1.50 resistance it has had for so long. Value of Gold and the increased portfolio of their tangible mining ventures, plus continued upgrades of their reserves is looking pretty promising for Avoca.
> Add to this that production is starting. Getting close to making it into a permanent space in the mid-tiers of Australian Mining.





Yeap AVO is looking very bullish at the moment it has clearyl broken through the $1.50 resistance and approaching to the all time high of $1.58. 

Technically looking good. MACD turning up strongly looks like with a bit of steam. Today up 7 % with relatively high volume of 2mil!!

Possibly inside info?


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## Nicks (7 August 2007)

There are now at least two (Fat Prophets and Managing Director of Newmont Mining) that say Gold will hit US $1000 ounce by the end of the year.

I think Fat Prophets are a joke myself, ramping it up when they pick winners but mention nothing of their many losers BUT I give a lot of credit to the words of the MD of Newmont.

Any one else got any comments from experts on the direction of gold?

In my opinion Gold will hit this mark. Sharemarket volatility is a factor in higher gold prices and as we have seen over the last 2 weeks it doesnt get more volatile than this. With the ramping up of production for AVO things are only just going to get better in this market climate. Im obviously not the only one who thinks so as the share price has remained rock solid (increasing in fact) with the recent falls. Positive news on their ever increasing success and growth has helped also.


----------



## explod (9 August 2007)

A nice new high set yesterday with gold rising overnight.    These are the ideal trends that I like and the fundamentals of this one have the right mix for me also.  Enjoy the ride


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2007)

This is probably the best looking gold chart I've seen for some time. Good breakout recently, probably on the first high grade ore from Trident. Top 10 own 46%!! Much upside to go with exploration do you think?


----------



## powerkoala (9 August 2007)

another record high for AVO at $1.78.
should it be put under outstanding breakout thread?
chart looks promising for the future.


----------



## powerkoala (9 August 2007)

Kennas, are you following this?
just break 1.80 resistance.
big buyers just move in.
will this break 2 dolar today?


----------



## explod (9 August 2007)

powerkoala said:


> Kennas, are you following this?
> just break 1.80 resistance.
> big buyers just move in.
> will this break 2 dolar today?




Hope Kennas does not mind my jumping in, but suppose I hit the first button anyway.   This stock shows strenth on any gold move.  Any further move up on gold will see it continue on its merry way IMHO.   Dollar Index looking to test support at 80. tonight so we will wait and see.

cheers explod


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## Nicks (9 August 2007)

Hi All

When I started this thread back in Feb 06 I was impressed with this little miner and its fundamentals and performance since I had bought in at 2004 so I wanted to post about it and share it with everyone. I am still a happy holder as the fundamentals just keep getting stronger.

Not that I am the first to post about AAM but I thought I would make everyone, who isnt already aware, of a stock which I feel the same about now as I did for AVO in 2004. AAM - The fundamentals bear striking similarities to AVO when I first got in at 2004. The market cap and share price is almost the same as AVO was then. So check out A1 Minerals (ASX code AAM) and see for yourself. Potential to follow as a similar successful miner to AVO. In fact the conditions are better now for AAM than they were for AVO.


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## powerkoala (12 September 2007)

wow, this looks so strong today.
up 5% and trying to break 1.80 again.
with gold 710. will this be able to break the resistance?
good luck all holders.


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## powerkoala (21 September 2007)

news out.
look at those grades.
wow. 
this is really good news as gold now at 734.40.
here we go.
good luck all holders.


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## Go Nuke (21 September 2007)

Well i jumped on to AVO today after it broke through 1.80

I like the way the POG is going, so decided to increase my expose to it.

I am a little concerned though because AVO has had quite a good run lately, so it will probably turn soon.
The MACD doesn't impress me much at the moment either.

Guess we will wait and see.


----------



## powerkoala (21 September 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> Well i jumped on to AVO today after it broke through 1.80
> 
> I like the way the POG is going, so decided to increase my expose to it.
> 
> ...




problem with this SP are slow running and impatient holders.
that's why it can't just fly like other gold stocks.
but today's news really break the 1.80c resistance for so long.
SP tried couple times to break 1.80c but today it did it


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## explod (24 September 2007)

powerkoala said:


> problem with this SP are slow running and impatient holders.
> that's why it can't just fly like other gold stocks.
> but today's news really break the 1.80c resistance for so long.
> SP tried couple times to break 1.80c but today it did it




Now at $2.10 it is surely starting to show its value now

..............................................................................................


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## Nicks (24 September 2007)

This has got to be the best Gold Stock going around. Still very undervalued if you do a calculation. As its now a solid company there has to be plenty more upside to come.


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## Nicks (24 September 2007)

... forgot to mention have a look at their resource base now. It just keeps geeting bigger, and lets not forget when they did their initial feasability study it was somewhere aroun $400US an ounce for gold.


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## Go Nuke (24 September 2007)

Nicks said:


> ... forgot to mention have a look at their resource base now. It just keeps geeting bigger, and lets not forget when they did their initial feasability study it was somewhere aroun $400US an ounce for gold.




Thanks for that info
I'm clearly stoked about jumping on board at the right time. It seems not everything goes wrong for me
Although my girlfriends dad (who works for the ATO and trades quite regularly) is spewing :swear: because I told him about it on Thursday but he was too slow to act on Friday so missed the boat

Looks like $2.40 might turn into resistance....but lets hope not.

Todays price action sent the clear candle out of the BB, so being a beginner I'll be keen to see what happens tomorrow.

My only other concern is the XAO. Back at that old triple top level from a couple of months ago. Lets hope for some good news out of the U.S this week to help get us up and over.


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## Nicks (28 September 2007)

Merrily Lynch has issued a BUY on AVO.

They have upgraded their forecasts for AVO for 2008 - 2010.

For full and concise details it has a good write up in today's Australian Financial Review.


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## Go Nuke (28 September 2007)

I see JP Morgan has become a substancial holder with 11+ Mil shares in AVO.

I was once told a basic tip....if u see bank and the likes of these guys investing, then its usually a good sign


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## Go Nuke (21 November 2007)

Is anyone getting a little edgy in reguards to AVO?

I see its still a buy reccommendation on Commsec, but I feel like the share price is just starting to roll over a little.

All too often I watched my profits turn into losses from not knowing when to get out.

With the volitility still well and truely in the market, i'm still bullish on gold..but thats probably whats keeping me in at the moment.

Anyone know of any further ann comming?
The ann about the 2 boys mine seemed to have little reflection on the sp.


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## Go Nuke (5 December 2007)

Does anyone have any info from a broking firms on their outlook for Avoca?

I'm getting really uneasy with the slight downturn in the share price with some of the faster moving averages crossing down through the slower ones.

Ive been burnt so many times holding for too long. Ive noticed that on the Commsec website they have 2  recommendations as a "Strong Buy", 3 as a "Moderate Buy" and 2 as a "Hold".

The other positive thing is it looks like J.P Morgan recently increased its holding in AVO from 5.20% to 6.21%.

Gold has come down a bit lately in price and I think thats what might be pushing the sp down a bit.


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## austek (5 December 2007)

Technically the chart shows AVO stuck within a bull flag, so I will be waiting for a b/o and some good news on gold to get in.


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## mikepretty (5 December 2007)

Isn't AVO due to upgrade it's resource this quarter? I am sure I read this somewhere. I would expect an upgrade to be positive for SP, especially if POG maintains current levels or increases.


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## disarray (6 December 2007)

well $2.20 and $2 are important support levels for this stock but its still trading comfortably around $2.30ish. the share price has risen strongly over the last year, including a substantial re-rating in august / september which took the price from $1.30 to a high of $2.60.

we had a share placement around $1.32 in april this year, gold production starting a few months ago and field acquisitions since then. this seems like a company that is well run and gets things done, and they are sitting on more undeveloped gold areas as well as uranium. fundamentally this is a solid company that is producing gold so i'm not concerned about the price fluctuating between $2.20 to $2.60, although if it drops through $2 then theres not much to hold it up and $1.40 would be a target (pre-rerating price).

its still trading around the 10 week MA although the current formation is looking pretty bearish to me. as you say the gold price has been softening and so would have an impact on the sp. either way i'm very long with this stock (its my gold bull exposure) and expect great things in the future.


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## Go Nuke (6 December 2007)

disarray said:


> well $2.20 and $2 are important support levels for this stock but its still trading comfortably around $2.30ish. the share price has risen strongly over the last year, including a substantial re-rating in august / september which took the price from $1.30 to a high of $2.60.
> 
> we had a share placement around $1.32 in april this year, gold production starting a few months ago and field acquisitions since then. this seems like a company that is well run and gets things done, and they are sitting on more undeveloped gold areas as well as uranium. fundamentally this is a solid company that is producing gold so i'm not concerned about the price fluctuating between $2.20 to $2.60, although if it drops through $2 then theres not much to hold it up and $1.40 would be a target (pre-rerating price).
> 
> its still trading around the 10 week MA although the current formation is looking pretty bearish to me. as you say the gold price has been softening and so would have an impact on the sp. either way i'm very long with this stock (its my gold bull exposure) and expect great things in the future.




Thanks for that post Davros...I mean Disarray

I compared charts with AVO,LGL and RSG and they all look fairly similar, so I'm guessing its the gold price thats influencing the share price.
It finished off well today at $2.39 which i'm really pleased to see. I'm suprised it took all day to get up to those levels really considering the DOW was up nearly 200 points overnight.
I guess other than the averages crossing over its the volume thats troubling me too.
If the sp is up on low volume, can that suggest accumulation of the share?

After a little digging I came up with this recommendation from Myrill lynch from the 31st of October.

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_merrilllynch_20071031.pdf

 You were right Mikepretty, a resource update is due by the end of this year.
I'm just a bit edgy these days having watched so many of my shares go up, and not knowing when to sell out and am now sitting on losses

Thx guys.


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## mikepretty (18 December 2007)

*Resource Increase*

Avoca today announced It's resource increase. 23% increase (246 000 ounce) to Higginsville resource base.
 They also announced a 500 metre extension to the Trident mineralisation which is part of the Higginsville  project. 
Also ore grade mineralisation south of Poseidon South. 
Announcements look promising for further increases after more drilling in the new year.
SP got a little hammered this morning but now appears to be picking up again.


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## Go Nuke (18 December 2007)

Indeed.

If there is 1 thing I'm learning about the share market, its that the market always seems to have greater expectations from announcements!

After seeing it drop below support of $2.20 I bailed out for a small profit. I had a sell order in a few weeks back which I'm now wishing I hadn't pulled.

Might sit back and wait for some sort of breakout into new territory for AVO


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## explod (18 December 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> Indeed.
> 
> If there is 1 thing I'm learning about the share market, its that the market always seems to have greater expectations from announcements!
> 
> ...





A look at tonights chart indicates a reverse hammer, a jump up tomorrow should make it a buy. Volume up today at that price is a fair indicator also. A rise overnight in the gold price, which I expect will do the trick.  I got in recently at $2.43 and most happy to hold such a quality gold miner.  Good buying 0pportunity for those who got in today.


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## mikepretty (18 December 2007)

I would think after a little time to digest the announcements tonight, things may look better for AVO tomorrow. a 23% increase to the higginsville resource is great news although it came on an interesting day. 
  I was surprised to see AVO fall below 220 support today but think tomorrow will see the SP back above this point.


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## explod (4 January 2008)

Another great day for AVO.   As more notice the fundamentals of this company with the rising gold price we are going to enjoy a great ride.

Bell Potter had a buy rec. on this in todays Herald Sun.

Is this a good setup for a new breakout??? :-


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## explod (11 January 2008)

Avoca has been sailing along sideways on moderate to low volume for some time and wonder why the share price fall?   The last ann. late Dec seemed to be very good ?

Also on closing market how can one offer 10 shares at $2.12, is someone trying to push down on this?


----------



## michael_selway (12 January 2008)

explod said:


> Avoca has been sailing along sideways on moderate to low volume for some time and wonder why the share price fall?   The last ann. late Dec seemed to be very good ?
> 
> Also on closing market how can one offer 10 shares at $2.12, is someone trying to push down on this?




Hi Not Bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -2.7 9.1 16.9 19.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

Business Description 
Avoca Resources Limited (AVO) is a gold exploration and development company focused on advancing the underground Trident gold project, located in Higginsville, WA.


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## Nicks (14 January 2008)

AVO are going for a ride up as I type. 

Gold price hitting USD 900 ounce, fundamentals of AVO has been strong lately. Heading back up to the $2.60-$2.80 range we have seen common for AVO perhaps, although I think as the fundamentals sink in it will go higher this time.

Sometimes this happens, the market sits and bounces on a stock for a while and dijests, then wham it recorrects and goes for a sudden burst up and ususally then a long steady rise follows as the market has recorrect the valuation up. The recent excellent announcements and findings are kicking in.

IMO this could top previous peaks and hit $3 soon based on the market cap and the gold resource and gold price.


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## pajm (14 January 2008)

Hope you are right Nicks as SP movement a bit disappointing lately with the Gold momentum. Talk in papers of AVO being a takeover target in 2008. Any thoughts anyone?


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## Nicks (23 January 2008)

Well they have excellent resources which seem to be ever expanding. I like this stock because it is now at that point where all the hard work has been done. Resources (Gold) are secure and ready to come out of the ground and the timing could not be better with the price of gold!!
It would be an easy yet valuable takeover target so you could be right. A nice resource base for some of the bigger players to add to their resource base, some of which are desperate to do at the moment.

The major insti's are very bullish on AVO with many recommending it and with Gold price and resource base its fundamentals make for a simple financial calculation on the capital net worth of this company. Go have a look at their resource base, price of gold, costs and see for yourself.


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## Kuade (25 January 2008)

Fat Prophets have a positive outlook on Avoca, no doubt advising it as a buy to their membership -

"Cheap Mining Company #1 

The West Australian emerging gold producer about which we have previously said… 

"We remain overwhelmingly positive on this company's story. There are very few emerging, high quality gold producers in the Australian market, which means that the company should undergo a significant re-rating as first stand-alone gold production approaches during the middle of 2008." "


I doubled my holding today with AVO making it over the $2.00 mark with a solid amount of support behind it and upturning RSI. Gold also continues to remain strong with a continuing uptrend.


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## explod (31 January 2008)

Quarterly report out today which in my ivew contains the substance of a company about to take off.    However you be your own judge. go to www.avocaresources.com.au 

Current chart reflects the general market move but not the rising gold price.


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## Nicks (4 February 2008)

I honestly was quite happy with the report. It just has an overall optimistic future and I couldnt find anything that strategically I didnt like. There doesnt seem to be any fan fare with Avoca, they are just solidly getting on with the job and have the fundamentals going right - actual construction and milling equipment on the way. 
So they are at the start of a real future with real production coming online very shortly. Everything is aligning like a solar eclipse - the timing of the production couldnt be better with the external environment, ie the POG and their resource base keeps increasing. This has been evident in the making for some time and should pay off for the patient. Anyone can get in when the gold starts coming out, but its those of us that can deduce what is in store from their fundamentals that will be rewarded.


----------



## JTLP (9 February 2008)

WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH AVO 

I really don't understand it. Are they getting kept down for accumulation purposes or is something wrong in the wind?

They have so much press and broker backing that this price seems a little low 

Surely, with POG increasing, production to begin soon and the fundamentals as sound as ever (as per quarterly), this one must be ready to move north?


----------



## explod (9 February 2008)

JTLP said:


> WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH AVO
> 
> I really don't understand it. Are they getting kept down for accumulation purposes or is something wrong in the wind?
> 
> ...




Well I cannot understand your concern.  In spite of the Australian gold sector weakness they are close to an all time high.  Also note the volume, it is low but the price is climbing.   Look at the 12 month chart and then the ones for the other major gold stocks NCM, LGL and OXR  as examples.

Avoca is about to start production later this year.  With a rising gold price of late and a resultant pickup in the gold stock sector, which must come through soon, AVO will reward to the upside.   The stockmarket is shaky to say the least, AVO is doing fine thank you.   Love it, bout the best gold stock on the ASX.

Just my humble opinion.


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## Sean K (9 February 2008)

explod said:


> Well I cannot understand your concern.  In spite of the Australian gold sector weakness they are close to an all time high.



 I must be looking at the wrong chart explod. Isn't an all time high about $2.70, currently, $1.88...


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## explod (9 February 2008)

kennas said:


> I must be looking at the wrong chart explod. Isn't an all time high about $2.70, currently, $1.88...




Absolutely, blurring eyes at this late hour,  SBM was my mix up.  Yes AVO down with the rest.  My apologoes it is one of the worst effected as pointed out.

The stocks in the gold sector are down as the gold bugs are fully loaded but the newcomers were burnt off by the general market correction.  A little patience still required.

My feelings for AVO are still the same. I also love SBM but on a value basis AVO would be No. 1.


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## JTLP (25 February 2008)

Well, without trying to jinx AVO, they are having a nice run lately. Finally seems to be a sentiment turn around in the stock which is good.

When is the expected production date?

And how is that chart looking?

Any thoughts Nicks/Explod???


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## Nicks (25 February 2008)

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true

June 2008, then the gravy will start flowing. Timimg couldnt be any better. They have no hedging. Rising POG is going to fully benefit AVO. Cash reserves are good. See above link.


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## pajm (27 February 2008)

Article in Monday's Eureka Report identifies AVO as 1 of 5 emerging domestic gold producers (along with Norton, Dioro, Monarch and Citigold). ("PORTFOLIO POINT: Five companies aspiring to join the big league deserve investors’ consideration – and close monitoring").


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## Kuade (27 February 2008)

PAJM: Any chance you could post the report or copy and paste the gist of it? It would be interesting to read the full article.


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## pajm (27 February 2008)

Can do Kuade.........enjoy. Tables settings thrown out with copy and paste.        



New kids on the gold block 
By Troy Schwensen   



PORTFOLIO POINT: Five companies aspiring the join the big league deserve investors’ consideration – and close monitoring. 


Investors have few choices if they are seeking a locally owned gold miner producing more than 100,000 ounces of gold a year in Australia. In fact, they could count the number of companies on one hand. The recent success of Canadian company Northgate in its bid for ASX-listed Perseverance leaves just five remaining companies that meet the criteria. 

Top five Australian-owned domestic producers  
Company Annual 
production (oz) * Share price 
(Feb 19, 2007) Share price 
(Feb 19, 2008) Gain (%) 
Newcrest Mining  1,385,000  21.92  34.28  56% 
St Barbara  164,500  0.52  0.90  73% 
Resolute Mining ^  133,000  1.64  2.20  35% 
Equigold  117,500  1.52  3.81  151% 
Dominion Mining  114,000  1.94  4.13  113% 
Average  382,800    86% 
All Ordinaries   5,969.30  5,688.60  -5% 
* Domestic gold production for calendar 2007 
^ Just Ravenswood production (excluding Golden Pride in Tanzania) 


The share prices of these five companies have performed extremely well over the past 12 months, in light of the uncertain investment climate and rising gold prices. Since February 2007 these companies have averaged gains of 86%, while the All Ordinaries index lost 5%. All these companies produce respectable quantities of gold in a politically stable part of the world, which begs the obvious question: “Which companies could join this exclusive club over the coming 12–18 months? 

Finding new gold projects is tough, with many companies preferring to head offshore and develop projects in politically riskier environments such as the Philippines, Thailand, Ghana, Mali, China or Egypt. The risks are high, but so are the rewards for the management teams that have the experience and smarts to get it right. 

Back in the Australia, as gold prices have risen 38% over the past year, the following five companies will potentially be producing 100,000 ounces or more per year in Australia over the next 12–18 months: 

Australia’s emerging domestic gold producers 
Company Current annualised 
production * Forecast annual 
production Share price 
(Feb 19, 2007) Share price 
(Feb 19, 2008) Gain (%) 
Norton Gold Fields  179,000  150,000  0.10  0.39  290% 
Avoca  16,000  170,000  1.25  1.92  54% 
Dioro Mining  68,000  141,000  1.32  1.47  11% 
Monarch Gold  30,000  125,000  0.80  0.52  -35% 
Citigold  18,000  100,000  0.38  0.37  -4% 
Average  61,600  137,200    63% 
* December Quarter 2007 production multiplied by four to provide an indicative annualised rate 


These five companies provide a very interesting mix, with many challenges ahead in the quest to join the established five over the coming months and years. Norton, Monarch and Dioro have chosen to purchase some of their production ounces and have recently acquired projects with established infrastructure from major international gold mining companies. 


Recently acquired projects  
Company Project name Vendor Date Cost 
($Am) Cost per 
oz ($) ^ Reserves (million oz) Resource (million oz) 
Norton Gold Fields *  Paddington Mine  Barrick Gold  26/04/2007 39 28  0.625 1.4 
Monarch Gold  Mt Magnet Mine  Harmony Gold  8/11/2007 65 24  0 2.7 
Dioro Mining  South Kal Mine  Harmony Gold  3/12/2007 45 24  0.26 1.9 
^ This represents the cost per resource ounce paid by the company. 
* Norton has since announced an upgrade on the January 15, 2008, after a significant drilling program and the conversion of the resource from Canadian 43-101 standards to JORC. 


The three mining projects acquired by Norton, Monarch and Dioro were sold primarily due to deteriorating economics which no longer adhered to the strict performance criteria of the vendor companies. They had little in the way of remaining reserves, generally just one to three years’ worth. The primary challenge for Norton, Monarch and Dioro is to expand on existing reserves via extensive exploration programs, whilst keeping the mines operational and profitable. These projects each come with extensive resource bases of one to three million ounces, providing ample opportunity for reserve upgrades. Norton Goldfields recently announced an upgrade of its Paddington resource from 1.4 million ounces to more than three million ounces after significant drilling and a resource conversion to JORC. (Joint Ore Reserves Committee, the ASX industry standard for resource verification). 

Monarch has chosen to place Mt Magnet on care and maintenance and concentrate its efforts on exploration programs and the successful commissioning of its existing Davyhurst operation near Kalgoorlie. The advantage of these types of projects is of course the established infrastructure and the readily available mining personnel (both scarce and expensive in the present environment). 

Citigold and Avoca have been developing projects the traditional way by establishing a resource via extensive exploration and then developing mines in their own right. One of the advantages of following this process is that the company management tends to gain a much better understanding of what they are working with. The disadvantage can be the time and significant cost it takes to get these projects up and running which tends to test investor patience. Dioro Exploration is developing its 49%-owned WA-based Frog’s Leg project in the WA Goldfields, and intends to process the ore at their recently acquired South Kal mine, which is within trucking distance. This recent acquisition has given Dioro a strategic advantage that has effectively fast tracked it towards becoming a significant producer in 2008-09. 


Development projects  
Company Project name Total development 
costs ($A m) ^ Cost per oz ($) # Reserves (million oz) Resource (million oz) 
Avoca Mining  Higginsville GF  130 93  0.63 1.4 
Citigold  Charters Towers GF  60 6  0.33 10.4 
Dioro Mining*  Frogs Leg  40 80  0.3 0.5 
^ This represents exploration and development costs for the respective projects plus any remaining anticipated capital expenditure to bring these projects into commercial production at the planned rates. 
# This represents the total development cost divided by the resource base. 
* Represents Dioro’s 49% stake in the project 


All these emerging producers are in similar positions, with extensive resource bases, relatively small reserves, and mines that are in or near commercial production. The rewards for the companies that get this process right will be immense. Some companies will fail. View Resources, which had been listed on the ASX, recently went into voluntary administration after failing in its attempts to bring the Bronzewing project back into commercial production. Although a rising gold price provides a safety margin for these companies, poor management or fluctuations in mining fortunes can quickly negate these benefits. 

Investors should consider three important factors if they are considering putting money into developing gold mining companies: 

Healthy balance sheets. The uncertain nature of gold mining, even for the more established players, lends itself to unexpected events which can leave companies at the mercy of their creditors. Ensure companies have healthy balance sheets and access to contingency funds in the event of unexpected delays. Debt and any gold price hedging can potentially pose very significant risks. 

Good management. Difficult to quantify, but a proven track record usually speaks for itself. For example, Monarch has raised tens of millions of dollars to make acquisitions (its global resource is now more than five million ounces). Michael Kiernan, the former chief executive of Consolidated Minerals, fronts the company and has a stellar reputation of building successful mining houses against the odds. 

Significant insider ownership. This generally aligns management’s interests with that of its shareholders. For example the directors of Citigold own more than 13.5% of the company, with Mark Lynch the chief executive owning most of this stake. The Lynch family has been heavily involved in the development of the Charters Tower’s Gold Field project for two decades. This sort of commitment inspires investor confidence, which is clearly demonstrated by the loyalty and patience of Citigold’s shareholders. Regular capital raisings and prudent purchasing of equipment and infrastructure by management has ensured that Citigold remains largely debt-free and unhedged going into this important production phase. 

Prudent, ongoing analysis needs to be done to monitor adverse developments – breaches of debt covenants, negative operating cash flow, chief executive resignations, directors selling shares, etc. In other words, these are not the sort of investments that can be made and simply forgotten. For those proactive investors who make the effort and have access to timely information, substantial returns can certainly be made with significantly less risk than one might think. 


Troy Schwensen is editor of The Global Speculatorand a research analyst for GoldNerds.


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## Nicks (28 February 2008)

Thanks for the article, it's very useful. Any chance you can post the link as the formatting is a bit out.


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## pajm (28 February 2008)

Was able to access article Nicks as a result of signing-up for trial membership with Euerka Report. Unfortunately cannot post link for article without it also sending my personal details.


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## Nicks (28 February 2008)

pajm said:


> Was able to access article Nicks as a result of signing-up for trial membership with Euerka Report. Unfortunately cannot post link for article without it also sending my personal details.




Why not? then we can steal your identity as well.

Seriously no probs, thanks anyway (maybe a JPG attached next time?)


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## pajm (28 February 2008)

No worries. Do not know what JPG attachment is but will not be a next time as only took out free 21 day trial offer to see what report was covering without any intention to proceed to membership. Of course you could join-up similarly to get that article.


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## Kuade (1 March 2008)

Gold continues to push higher. Has anyone run the numbers on the potential value or return of AVO accounting for different prices of gold? It would be very interesting to see what sort of return AVO might produce.


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## Nicks (3 March 2008)

A chart would be a good indicator of wh you are suggesting. Running the numbers at current PG is straightforward.

I think AVO's extraction costs were around $369 AUD ounce from memory, but check their report.

Current POG is over $1000 AUD ounce. Market cap around $500 mil. 

Their Gold assets are well over 1 Million ounces and growing.

So a basic calculation imo would be around $3/4 Billion valuation increasing with their Gold inventory and the POG (with falling USD and increasing oil price and global instability, this looks only set to keep going on its already well defined long term up trend).

So at current share prices and fundamentals the stock looks quite cheap.


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## JTLP (14 April 2008)

This thread has gone pretty quiet lately...

AVO have announced that the Mill is en route to Higginsville...on time and within budget...a big tick.

They have also announced some nice gold hits today at their Musket project, with grades including:

- 18m @ 10.9 g/t gold from 68m

To go with previous results of:

- 3m @ 9.9 g/t gold from 13m
- 10m @ 2.9g/t from 67m 
- 16m @ 2.1 g/t

Within the silver spear project area.

Avoca are going to conduct more drilling to identify the extent of the high grade mineralisation.

Giddy up


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## JTLP (21 April 2008)

A big big move today...up some 24 cents / 10%.

Was it the move with the All Ords, the fact it is about to become a producer, or something else behind the move? AVO doesn't really fluctuate much during the days, so to me, something is in the wind (just don't know what!) Anyone else got an inkling??? Assays/studies/anything due?

Interesting to note the massive capper at the end of the day, dropping 100,000 shares at the close just about the ask price, and kept moving it back through the final minutes. Accumulation?

Nicks? Explod...i feel like im talkign to myself here


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## michael_selway (21 April 2008)

JTLP said:


> This thread has gone pretty quiet lately...
> 
> AVO have announced that the Mill is en route to Higginsville...on time and within budget...a big tick.
> 
> ...




Hi whats the current mine life of AVO atm?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -2.7 -1.5 16.5 22.2 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## Kuade (21 April 2008)

IMO the stock is returning to a more accurate value. It's been said plenty of times on this forum that AVO was seriously undervalued. Given processing and production is about to happen in the next couple of months, and the future potential for further discoveries is quite possitive, it was just a matter of time.


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## Nicks (22 April 2008)

Yes true but they have hit this level a few times before, and then strongly retreated (like really strongly). Profit taking maybe? not sure.


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## Nicks (22 April 2008)

Voila. Its already retreated much of yesterday's gains and on its cyclical downtrend which the last few times has hit $1.85. Hopefully it wont but this has been the trend.

I find that sharp runs up tend to run down just as sharply when there is no fundamentals or insider traiding behind the rise. Kinda annoying really.


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## JTLP (22 April 2008)

There has been a big time capper at work. 100,000 about 2 spots clear on the sell side...was there yesterday at the close on 2.61.

Accumulation?


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## Kuade (22 May 2008)

What has happened to this thread? AVO goes up over 10% and complete silence.

Does anyone have any thoughts on yesterday they'd like to share?

It seems the jump is the combination of a number of factors and the trigger was the announcement of AVO securing funding to guarantee its future.


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## Wilsta (22 May 2008)

Some big buyers in the last couple of days .. i wonder if someone is not accumulating... thats my thoughts.


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## coladuna (30 May 2008)

There seems to be something going on. AVO has been struggling for quite a few days and during pre-close session, someone put in a couple of massive orders, which brought the closing price upto $2.72.
Anyone noticed this?


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## JTLP (16 June 2008)

Seems like there were people in the "know" about AVO and the treatment plant.

A nice rise on friday of about 5%, only to see it go down today on a spectacular ann.

For all you AVO holders:

- Higginsville Treatment Plant Completed on Time and on Budget

Have a quick looksey at the Ann, very short but very sweet.

Avoca seems to be flying under the radar big time for some reason...has some nice buy recco's from Goldman as well


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## JTLP (24 June 2008)

AVO up a nice 7% today in which was not a nice day for GOLD in general!

Nice release too: ENR: "Large Base Metals Drill Targets Defined" (AVO 20%).

Still, ENR actually ended the day lower...perhaps something else is in the wind at AVO? Maybe anticipation about the first feeding of the ore (it is scheduled for the start of July).


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## alfaracing (26 June 2008)

Could anyone give me there opinon on wether avoca is going anywere soon.

Had avo for just over a year, 65% up don't know if i should sell soon and move on.

PS still learning


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## Kuade (26 June 2008)

Goldman Sachs believe AVO is worth $3.20 at the moment so there's still plenty of room to move IMO.

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_jbwere_200805.pdf


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## JTLP (29 June 2008)

We should hopefully be seeing some rises in the next few days/weeks as the first ore feed is conducted...a major milestone in any mining company.

AVO have massive ramp up projections for '09 which will be nice to see...maybe they can slip in a divi! 

JTLP


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## michael_selway (29 June 2008)

JTLP said:


> We should hopefully be seeing some rises in the next few days/weeks as the first ore feed is conducted...a major milestone in any mining company.
> 
> AVO have massive ramp up projections for '09 which will be nice to see...maybe they can slip in a divi!
> 
> JTLP




Hi do you know what the expected mine life is at teh max production rate?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -2.7 -2.0 15.5 25.1 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## JTLP (30 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi do you know what the expected mine life is at teh max production rate?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Hi MS,

Initial Reserve mine life is: 4 years to 2011

This is expected to increase with the inferred resource from Trident as well as other unclassified ore grade sections at Trident.

A Nominal annual production rate (post mine establishment) of 1Mt of ore for 160 - 190Koz per annum.

They also have some more recco's from Argonaut and Bell Potter...all recommending AVO as a very strong/solid emerging gold producer with low cash operating costs ($369/oz).

Thanks

JTLP


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## alfaracing (8 July 2008)

Things seem to be moving along VERY nice for Avoca. I think i may just hold on for a while

Check out the latest


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## JTLP (8 July 2008)

HERRO everybody =D

Well Avoca had its first gold pour today!

What a significant achievement for any company. They now have cash flow!
At the end of June the company had 145,000 tonnes at 4.0 g/t gold of high grade material was stockpiled.

Hopefully this will alleviate some pressure off the SP and we start to see some prices more aligned with broker recommendations.

Chart wise, still in an uptrend from Jan '08 D) LOL

Sometimes I feel like I am talking to myself with this little honey


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## JTLP (17 July 2008)

Poor AVO...cops another drop today!

GOLD didnt even drop a % today and AVO drops 5% 

Which leads me to speculate that CBA are continuing to lighten their holdings...they have been doing so for quite a while (Oct '07).

Hopefully it all finishes up soon and AVO can start to head higher...i thought producing was a good thing!

Any chartists got some opinions on old AVO?


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## JTLP (18 July 2008)

WHAT THE HELL!!!

This is getting smashed now beyond belief. 

Maybe CBA really need to get out (speculation but as I pointed out they have been gradually reducing their holdings).

GOLD only dropped 1% and LGL dropped only 4.5%. Why no love for AVO?

Anybody???


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## explod (18 July 2008)

JTLP said:


> WHAT THE HELL!!!
> 
> This is getting smashed now beyond belief.
> 
> ...




Same as all the other good gold stocks.  Have a read of gold thread the last few days, also "Imminent and servere market correction" thread.

They will be back IMVHO


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## michael_selway (23 July 2008)

JTLP said:


> WHAT THE HELL!!!
> 
> This is getting smashed now beyond belief.
> 
> ...




Hm was pretty good today 

Date: 18/7/2008 
Author: Michael Vaughan 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 63 
Avoca Resources is one of the few success stories in the Australian gold miningsector in 2008. It bought the Higginsville project in Western Australia for $A4million in 2004. Its $A49.2 million processing plant was completed on time andunder budget, and the first gold was produced in July 2008. Avoca has reachedthis position through exploration. Its Trident deposit has a resource of 927,000ounces, comprising most of the project's 1.35 million ounces. The companyaims to produce 170,000 ounces of gold in 2008-09 

thx

MS


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## JTLP (23 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm was pretty good today
> 
> Date: 18/7/2008
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> ...




Sure did Michael.

Nice hits today at Higginsville will ensure a longer mine life then what the very conservative management have stated.

Also a substantial holder upping their position (lol still doesn't outweigh what CBA have been dropping!).

Hopefully tomorrow brings some more of the green!


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## Go Nuke (24 July 2008)

> Hopefully tomorrow brings some more of the green!




Nope no love for AVO today..or any other gold stocks..or resources for that matter.
Seems the ann on Higginsville wasn't enough to stop people pulling the pin on gold.

I'd assume that the money is flowing from gold back into banks. Must be more optimisim out there about the world wide economy.


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## JTLP (28 July 2008)

Dear Avoca,
                I have long admired your crisp, efficient management style that has in no less then 4 years constructed a fantastic, fully operational gold mill with decent graded ore and a reasonable mine life.

Your continual resource upgrades around the Higginsville area are also nothing to be scoffed at; plus the fact that you are now producing gold thus creating cash flow is an incredible achievement (insert symbolic high 5 here).

So tell me, my dear Avoca, why the market does not like you? Were you a bully as a child? Are you from some misunderstood/lost culture that society fears?

Please write back to me soon my love...for I fear the worst is not over...you may still be in danger! Hold strong, shine when others are fading...and maybe one day you will truly be recognized for what you are...

Until we meet again...I love you

Signed:

JTLP


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## alfaracing (29 July 2008)

Hi JTLP

I hear you and i support you on this one but im sad to say i did sell up last week. Our beloved Avoca kept diving so i bailed out.
However, i would like to say thank you to Mr Avoca he did me well during the last 14 months.

JT i will still be keeping AVO on my watch list as i think it will have some great profits to come.


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## JTLP (30 July 2008)

SMASH!!!

CBA must be offloading their shares at a rapid rate...there is no other explanation for this drastic sell off...

No point in me selling out now...shoulda flogged them at $2.90!

Another one (like CVN) that has sound fundamentals but getting slammed by insto selling...bottom drawer is getting rather stuffy


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## Nicks (31 July 2008)

Check this out: http://www.globalspeculator.com.au/documents/AustralianGoldCompanyComparison_000.pdf

Avoca doesnt seem to fair to well.


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## Sean K (31 July 2008)

Nicks said:


> Check this out: http://www.globalspeculator.com.au/documents/AustralianGoldCompanyComparison_000.pdf
> 
> Avoca doesnt seem to fair to well.



Wow, doesn't that look similar to the graph that kbxk508 created?

Oooops.



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=317199&postcount=129


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## Nicks (31 July 2008)

Hmmm yes it does, but if you look closely I think to his credit he has redone the graph with new figures and quoted the original source.

I think this came out in May. Interesting to note the downtrend in AVO SP since then.

I sold out of my initial holding earlier in the year thankfully. Picked up a few out of nostalgia the other day at $1.88. Bit disappointed the company seems to have reverted to desperately releasing 'news' as the SP has been dropping. Better off just getting down to solid business. 

I say 'news' as the grades they released and how they released it seem to be nothing but trying to create sensation. If you look further into it though the depths are like...... deep! Not sure how much use these findings are?


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## Go Nuke (31 July 2008)

Even though that chart is pretty heavy reading from my point of view thanks alot of putting it up!

I think after reading all that, i should be happy with my shares in IAU

I can look back now and be happy with my sale of AVO some time back..even if it wasn't at its highs


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## JTLP (31 July 2008)

Err...i think i posted the TCO for AVO is something in the 3 or 4 hundreds...read a few pages back.

Anyway, shot off an e-mail to the company last night and got a response today...here tis:

Dear JTLP,



Thanks for your email.  Please see below where I have answered your questions.



Regards,



Rohan Williams

Managing Director

Avoca Resources Limited

PO Box 1156 West Perth WA 6872

Level 1 31 Ventnor West Perth WA 6005

Phone +61 8 9226 0625

Fax +61 8 9226 0629

Mob +61 439955051







Dear Rohan,

Firstly, congratulations on the completion of the Higginsville treatment plant. To have finished the project on time and on budget is a fantastic achievement.

I just have a few questions concerning Avoca:

1. Why is the price of AVO continually being pushed down? Are CBA selling out of there total position?  This is a mystery to me as well.  We have released no news that could be construed by the market as disappointing.  We have no bad news.  Many brokers I have spoken to of late tell me there are no rumours in the market.  I suspect the selling is a combination of redemptions on some fund managers and the need to generate cash (so sell liquid stocks like Avoca), and the general malaise of the Australian gold sector: investors are tarring all Australian gold companies with the same sell brush.  I do not know what CBA are doing.  They are still significant shareholders.

2. Avoca have published some fantastic hits around the Higginsville area (Chalice & Artemis). When can shareholders expect a resource upgrade? We are working on a resource upgrade and hope to get it out during this qtr.

Thank you and I look forward to your response,

Regards,

JTLP


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## Nicks (6 August 2008)

Sold out any remaining shares I had in AVO today. Gold looks under too much pressure ATM. Perhaps if oil turns back around I might get back in, but atm will just sit on the side.


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## stock_dexter (22 August 2008)

Looks like the boys at AVO are catching Olympic Fever...going for gold!

Today's announcement...

Avoca Resources Limited (Avoca) is pleased to announce that the recent infill drill program at its exciting Musket Prospect has intersected additional shallow, high grade gold mineralisation, confirming it as a new outcropping gold discovery at its 100% owned Higginsville Gold Project, located in Western Australia.


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## Wilsta (10 September 2008)

Hey did anyone else see that Mr Robert Reynolds (Director, Non Exec. Chairman) offload 1,000,000 shares?  Or did I miss something?


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## JTLP (12 December 2008)

LOL...I bought into AVO because I liked the low production costs etc and how efficient they are. Also financing commitments have been met and they are uncovering some great gold grades very near to their 100% owned production facility.

Well you think an outfit like this would be killing it on the gold days (like all the others...producers + explorers etc) but it's actually down when everyone else is up by 5%.

I never ask these questions but can someone help me out...Are CBA still offloading? Does AVO move on the HUI and not with the POG?


Where is the love AVO...where is the love...


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## JTLP (28 January 2009)

Hi JTLP,

How are you?

Good thanks JTLP how are you? What's news with AVO?

Well...

- Possible insider trading me thinks when the recent Capital raising was done. AVO seemed to be tied down when other producers were on the move up up up (see LGL NCM etc). Placement done at $1.47 which wasn't bad at the time (only 4 cents below close price from memory). Oversubscribed (has to raise a few eyebrows?) and they got some nice figure around 28 mil from memory. Nice to have funds.

- AVO quarterly report shows everything is on track...but still no mention of a cost per ounce? They once stated around 450 AUD per ounce...will be interesting to see if this is still the case. They are meant to be a pretty efficient outfit so I am wondering why no mention of cash costs?

- CBA upping their holding? I had recently been noting that they had been selling out big time...but a change in holding today reveals they have bought back up...intriguing and positive so i'm happy

- Some nice gold grade hits in the report also...keep beefing up this report. I think Merryl Lynch have put out a buy on AVO...target 2.40 to 2.60...but they have cut a proposed dividend (not sure if they were the ones to include possible divvie in 2010).

Any thoughts?

Xoxo


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## disarray (28 January 2009)

hi jtc! how are you? thats great. i'm fine too thanks.

yeah avo has started moving along with the gold price, afaik jp morgan has been offloading the last month or so which was keeping the price down, but then bought back in with the oversubscribed placement.

cash costs are in the $400-$450 "ballpark" according to an email from AVO, so that probably means they are a bit high at the moment but they are hoping its going to come down over the next quarter.

the price has gapped up out of a triangle that was building over the last few months around a major support / resistance line so either the gap will be filled or it will go for a run and ignore the gap which of course would be nice. at least the break was up 

there has been lots of discussion over at hotcopper on AVO so when asf is quiet on a stock it might be worth having a poke around over there and sifting through the shills and ramps for some more info. the avoca website has also put up a few new analyst reports this week from RBC, merrill lynch and fat prophets, all of which are pretty bullish about the stock. i'm not really into fundamentals but its nice to have some confirmation.

i've been trading in and out around the 1.50 range recently and am sitting on my most recent parcel acquired at 1.51, obviously i'm keeping a close eye on the gold price but the trading range had been pretty consistent and support held up well which is a good sign. given the recent problems at lihir with the landowners causing a ruckus i'm pretty happy about avocas location, although the jp morgan royalties look like taking a decent bite out of profits.

xoxo yourself


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## JTLP (23 February 2009)

Well well well...nice work Disarray.

JP Morgan are no longer a substantial holder...and CBA have been offloading chunks as well.

Sheesh...sometimes logic does not prevail! I guess they have there reasons though...

Still waiting on some official cash costs...will email the company tonight to get some insight. Management are pretty good with the old turnaround!

Perhaps they are unwilling to release cash costs due to the start up nature of gold pours and are waiting for a plateau of pricing before releasing the data?

In other news AVO up a nice 5% today...finally beating their gold counterparts...


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## JTLP (25 February 2009)

Word up JTLP...how are you big man?

Not bad thanks...just chuggin along...all good.

Good to hear mate. Anyway...here is the reply that you asked for from Rohan Williams...

Hello JTLP.  The $369/oz figure was based on our original feasibility which was completed in late 2006.  We now quote cash cost guidance in the $450/oz area once we are mining reserve grade material, which is 5.3 g/t gold.

regards

Rohan Williams

So there is the reply. $450/oz cash cost is pretty low so i'm happy...but I don't quite grasp the part after it. What are they processing now then if it is not the reserve grade material? Better quality or worse? Cheaper or more expensive?

When will AVO be processing the reserve grade material? J-Man? Anyone?


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## JTLP (6 March 2009)

AVO...biggest serial under performer of all time...

Gold down, AVO smash

Gold up, AVO flat/down

Can only speculate that some of the big boys are still reducing holdings...especially are receiving more via the institutional cap raising.

Still cutting me deep though...anyone have any answers to my previous question btw?

Ta!

JTLP


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## JTLP (18 March 2009)

Dirty Dog lately.

Perhaps people knew about this article from Mining News:

Avoca posts loss even as Higginsville grows
Kate Haycock
Monday, 16 March 2009

DESPITE its Higginsville gold project ramping up to produce 49,662 ounces of gold in the last six months of 2008, Avoca Resources posted a loss of $A14.6 million for the same period.

The company sold 45,322oz of gold from the Higginsville project in Western Australia at an average price of $A1102 per ounce during the half year, with total revenue hitting $50 million.

The Perth based company’s $14.6 million loss was mainly due to mining costs, coming in at $40 million, while depreciation and amortisation costs came to $18.3 million.

Earlier this month Avoca raised $28.9 million to finance a paste-fill plant, expected to cost around $15 million, and for future working capital.

Before this, the miner had only $4.05 million cash on hand at the end of the quarter and total debt of $66.8 million.

Avoca poured its first gold bar at Higginsville on July 8 last year, and shares in the company were last trading at $1.67, up 1.5c on Friday, but fell back 1c this morning.

MiningNews.net was unable to contact a representative of Avoca at the time of publication


I still think major holder's are exiting but now she is getting ugly...down 8% today.

People don't like losses...mmm...cap raising was a good idea now?


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## JTLP (19 March 2009)

I must be the only dud around these parts 

Anyway...some big trades throughout the day on AVO...with volume right up. Some big XT's in there as well...hopefully a major changing hands with somebody else without flooding the market?

Price is up as well (as with all goldies) but AVO's volume has got me thinking. Just before open some biggies...


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## JTLP (24 March 2009)

JTLP you been working out? You look good. When you joining the international modelling circuit? Ahh just when I get a job...sweet.

Anyway back to AVO.

Right royal smash today...down 8% when most goldies were only down between 1 and 3%. Volume was up again too...i'm getting sick of speculating on a major holder getting out but sheesh...something in the wings. 

Still in an uptrend from the November lows...also trading within a range of about 1.50 to 1.80 for a good 3 months.


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## JTLP (25 April 2009)

Far out JTLP...the gym has turned you from drab to fab! Wouldn't want to meet you on the modelling circuit...

Ok snap back to reality...so I wrote about the T/O on DIO's thread...but AVO look to be getting a pretty good deal. Have the DIO board approved or made any recco's?

If gold stays at these lofty levels and even higher then AVO will be one sexy big W.A miner...


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## QBN_BOY (5 May 2009)

JTLP said:


> Far out JTLP...the gym has turned you from drab to fab! Wouldn't want to meet you on the modelling circuit...
> 
> Ok snap back to reality...so I wrote about the T/O on DIO's thread...but AVO look to be getting a pretty good deal. Have the DIO board approved or made any recco's?
> 
> If gold stays at these lofty levels and even higher then AVO will be one sexy big W.A miner...




Looking at the Historical financial information on the Avoca Group
Set out below is an audit-reviewed balance sheet of Avoca as at 31 December 2008:Audit-reviewed Balance Sheet asat 31 December 2008 ($’000)

Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 4,053
Trade and other receivables 2,098
Inventories 9,434
Derivative financial instruments 2,081
Total Current Assets 17,666
Non Current Assets
Trade and other receivables 6
Derivative financial instruments 10,961
Property, plant and equipment 172,158
Mineral exploration and evaluation 35,178
Deferred tax assets 9,073
Other financial assets 807
Total non-current assets 228,183
TOTAL ASSETS 245,849
Current Liabilities
Trade and other payables 25,582
Provisions 149
Borrowings 15,957
Other financial liabilities 4,803
Total current liabilities 46,491
Non-current Liabilities
Provisions 3,500
Borrowings 88,818
Other financial liabilities 5,699
Total non-current liabilities 98,017
TOTAL LIABILITIES 144,508
NET ASSETS 101,341
EQUITY
Contributed Equity 122,086
Equity compensation reserve 2,817
Other reserves 2,701
Accumulated losses (26,263)
TOTAL EQUITY 101,341

I didn't go far at school but the above financial information (borrowings) looks pretty unhealthy to me, or am I missing something?


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## disarray (1 July 2009)

she's ranging again. been very reliable for quite some time now, i'd almost set my watch by it.

sooooooooooooooooooooo how much more do i need to type to get my 100 characters?

*edit*

/wave JTLP. how you doing? i'm fine thanks! you holding or trading or what? positive results keep coming in which is nice to see. even though POG has taken a bit of a dip we've got our lady here on an upswing. typical woman, unpredictable as hell till you learn to read her, then the goodies flow


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## JTLP (1 July 2009)

disarray said:


> she's ranging again. been very reliable for quite some time now, i'd almost set my watch by it.
> 
> sooooooooooooooooooooo how much more do i need to type to get my 100 characters?
> 
> ...




Wow...another poster!

Yeah i'm still holding. Interesting days for AVO recently with the ann stating they could output 190,000 oz per year...what a lovely ann.

Also PALA investments converting the note considerably early and buying shares on market...what's the go here?

I also think the DIO deal is shot. DIO management is too stubborn to realise the potential a takeover would mean and are too stuck up on the KPMG report in respect of T/O premiums (which is IMO ludicrous to say the least).

AVO are in a range you're right..lets see what's waiting in the wings...


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## LeeTV (6 July 2009)

Avoca increases Dioro bid
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, 6 July 2009
Kate Haycock
http://www.miningnewspremium.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=1030781

GOLD producer and predator Avoca Resources has upped its offer for fellow miner Dioro Exploration, and pushed out its offer by another week in a bid to reel in more Dioro shareholders.

Avoca and its associates hold a 15.75% stake in Dioro, up from 14.95% when the takeover bid was launched, indicating acceptances for the deal have been slow so far.

This morning Avoca increased its offer for Dioro to one Avoca share for every 2.4 Dioro shares – which it estimated valued Dior’s shares at 74.8c each.

Avoca was previously offering one of its shares for every 2.82 Dioro shares on the market. 

Avoca’s shares were last traded at $1.675, down 3c this morning, while Dioro’s were at 64c, up 1c. 

Perth-based Avoca said today the new offer represented a premium of more than 89% to Dioro’s 39.5c closing price on April 9, the day before the takeover offer was launched. 

Dioro has urged shareholders not to fold to Avoca’s deal as the offer undervalued the company – a claim backed up in Dioro’s target statement in May, when financial services firm KPMG valued Dioro at $A1.40-2.28 per share, with a preferred value of $1.88 per share.

Beyond this, Dioro also said it was in talks with rival parties over an alternative deal to the Avoca offer.

These parties have been tipped to include Dioro’s joint venture partner at the Frog’s Leg underground gold mine, Canadian company La Mancha.

However, today Avoca warned Dioro shareholders these discussions may not eventuate and Dioro’s share price could tank if Avoca does not succeed in its takeover bid. 

The offer is now due to close on Tuesday, July 21.


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## JTLP (7 July 2009)

Gah...AVO seem desperate now by extending and upping the bid. Hopefully this is the last time they do it and DIO just accept...I personally believe the holder's are getting a little into dreamland if they think they will achieve the 1.88 target from KPMG.

Hopefully tomorrow a reply from DIO management about what to do with the offer...if they don't accept I hope AVO just dump the 15% of shares they hold straight on market and push DIO back to where it started before the T/O bid...wouldn't it be funny for the DIO holder's to cry "KPMG VALUATION" then...


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## LeeTV (7 July 2009)

JTLP said:


> Gah...AVO seem desperate now by extending and upping the bid. Hopefully this is the last time they do it and DIO just accept...I personally believe the holder's are getting a little into dreamland if they think they will achieve the 1.88 target from KPMG.
> 
> Hopefully tomorrow a reply from DIO management about what to do with the offer...if they don't accept I hope AVO just dump the 15% of shares they hold straight on market and push DIO back to where it started before the T/O bid...wouldn't it be funny for the DIO holder's to cry "KPMG VALUATION" then...



Totally agree. I don't think they should have raised their previous offer personally. DIO holders will be happy though the sp shot up today on the news.


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## comptec (20 July 2009)

my god, what is going on

this company goes up and down between $1.5 and $1.9 ... next year it's all profit... they can easily pay off their debts in one hit

why is it only worth $1.75 right now? it should be well over $2.5 surely.

hmm.. come on guys what is wrong with this stock?


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## dandyjac (20 July 2009)

I could never get my head around this stock, I sold out last week I have been holding this stock for 6 months I was just glad to get my money back as it trades in a wide range massive up & downs


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## dandyjac (30 July 2009)

Looks like Ramelius Resources may trump Avoca's offer for Dioro


http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...ivals-avocas-bid-for-dioro-20090730-e2uy.html


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## Miner (31 July 2009)

dandyjac said:


> Looks like Ramelius Resources may trump Avoca's offer for Dioro
> 
> 
> http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...ivals-avocas-bid-for-dioro-20090730-e2uy.html




i DON'T get it.

First AVO takes over DIO pricing SP of DIO at much higher price than market. They are paying $1 for DIO against market price 71 cents.

Why not all share holders start buying shares of DIO from market and then sell them to AVO at $1.

Then it comes RMS to buy DIO shares.

My confusion if all DIO shares got sold to AVO then there is no DIO share in market. What RMS will do > Very confused and need some light


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## LeeTV (13 August 2009)

*It's decision time for Dioro in takeover imbroglio*
_Bryan Frith | August 12, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian _
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,25917023-16941,00.html

AVOCA Resources has clearly tired of waiting on the Dioro Exploration board to decide between the competing scrip bids of Avoca and Ramelius Resources.

Avoca yesterday declared its bid final, as to both the offer price and the offer period. The bid was due to close today but has been extended by a week. 

Given that relatively short time and the fact that there is no longer any prospect of Avoca further sweetening its offer terms, the Dioro board will now be forced to choose between the competing offers. 

It is now almost two weeks since Ramelius surprised by announcing an offer of two Ramelius shares for each Dioro share the day after the Dioro board recommended an increased offer from Avoca of one of its shares for each 2.3 Dioro shares. 

The Ramelius offer valued Dioro shares at $1, well above the 74.5c a share value of the enhanced Avoca bid. The Dioro responded by advising shareholders to take no action until they make a recommendation on the Ramelius offer, but added that based on the sharemarket price it may be a superior offer. 

The decision for the Dioro board should be which company's scrip offers the better prospects. 

Dioro shareholders would own 45.5 per cent of a merged Dioro-Ramelius but only 14 per cent of a combined Avoca-Dioro. That reflects not only the offer terms but the fact that Avoca is by far the more substantial company of the two. 

In terms of assets, Dioro holders would stand to gain more from the Avoca offer than the Ramelius alternative. In fact, acceptance of the Ramelius bid would involve a transfer of wealth from Dioro shareholders to Ramelius holders. 

Following the recent upgrade of the Frog's Legs joint venture, Dioro has reserves of 583,000 ounces, whereas Ramelius does not yet have any JORC compliant reserves; instead it has only 118,000oz of inferred and indicated (not even measured) at its Wattle Dam operation in WA, yet has begun underground development aimed at producing a single year's production of 70,000oz. 

Dioro has 2 million ounces of resources and on that basis would be contributing 95 per cent of the resources of a combined Ramelius-Dioro. But around 1.5 million ounces of those resources have been sterilised by two major pitwall collapses at the South Kalgoorlie project, which may now be worthless. 

If those resources were excluded, Ramelius would still be providing only 19 per cent of the resources. 

Avoca produced almost 53,000oz of gold in the June quarter at its Higginsville operation and is aiming to produce 160,000-200,000oz a year for at least the next eight years. Moreover, the Trident mine is open at depth raising the prospect of a much longer mine life. 

Acquisition of Dioro would lift Avoca to a 250,000oz-a-year producer and the company has ambitions to become the pre-eminent mid-tier gold company, producing 5000,000oz a year. 

If Dioro holders were to accept the Avoca offer, their implied share of Avoca's production would be 80,000oz, their implied share Avoca's reserves would be 80,000oz and the implied share of its resources would be 203,000oz. 

By way of comparison, their implied share of Ramelius' production would be 32,000oz (one year only), no reserves andtheir implied share of resourceswould be 54,000oz. 

On that basis, Dioro holders have more to gain by accepting the Avoca offer. 

Avoca's share price is at present depressed by its scrip offer, with short sellers active in the stock. At its present price of $1.72, its offer values Dioro shares at 74.8c a share. Dioro's independent expert conceded that if Avoca secured 100 per cent of Dioro, its share price would be re-rated and suggested a price range of $1.96-$2.22, with a preferred price of $2.10 a share. 

At $2.10 a share, the Avoca offer would value Dioro at 91c a share. At $2.20 a share the value would increase to 95.6c a share, which is much closer to the implied value of the Ramelius offer. 

Curiously, the Ramelius share price has not suffered as a result of its scrip offer, despite the amount of shares that would need to be issued. While the Ramelius share price dipped 1c to 51c yesterday, that still values its offer at $1.02 a Dioro share, or more than when the bid was first announced. 

Avoca argues that the Ramelius share price is heavily overvalued and there is a mismatch of asset base and market capitalisation. 

Assuming a gold price of $1130 a tonne, Ramelius' stated resources have a value of $134million, yet its market capitalisation is $112m. Avoca points out that Ramelius would need to convert its resources into reserves, complete all operational and capital development, all stoping and cover all overhead costs for zero dollars for Wattle Dam to have an intrinsic value of anything even remotely close to its current market value. 

Moreover, Avoca's offer is unconditional, it already owns 24 per cent of Dioro and has stated that it won't accept the Ramelius offer. 

Ramelius, therefore, cannot obtain 100 per cent, but it could satisfy its minimum acceptance of 50.1 per cent if the Dioro board were to recommend its offer. Apart from the fact that it raises the prospect of Dioro remaining listed with two holders owning at least 74 per cent of the company, it would also mean that neither Ramelius nor Avoca would be able to access the cashflows generated by Frog's Legs and South Kalgoorlie. 

That is likely to be of greater significance to the much smaller Ramelius, as Avoca already generates a strong cashflow from Higginsville. 

Ramelius is yet to lodge its bidder's statement, although there are suggestions it is poised to do so. Avoca is urging the Dioro board not to wait on that document, arguing enough is known for it to decide now which bid to support. 

That's because Avoca has given itself very little wriggle room. If acceptances over the next week take it to at least 50 per cent of Dioro, then its offer automatically extends for at least a further two weeks, and longer if Avoca wishes it. But if Avoca falls short of 50 per cent, then its offer is over. 

There are few large shareholders. Baker Steel owns 12.66 per cent, while Dioro's Frog's Legs joint venture partner, La Mancha, owns another 2 per cent, as does Mark Creasy, but much of the register is held by retail holders. 

Avoca has set itself a stiff task to reach 50 per cent within the next week, even if the target board maintains its recommendation, and a possibly herculean task if it recommends Ramelius. 

Ramelius last night attempted to make that task even more difficult by removing all conditions (including the 50.1 per cent minimum acceptance) other than FIRB approval. Avoca may yet rue that it did not extend the offer by at least two weeks.


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## LeeTV (20 August 2009)

_“Importantly, Baker Steel and La Mancha Resources Australia did not accept Ramelius’
inferior offer and neither will Avoca,” Mr Reynolds said._

The fact that these guys didn't take up the Ramelius offer says it all imo.




*Avoca reaches 44.85% at close of Offer for Dioro*

ASX200 gold producer, Avoca Resources Limited (ASX:AVO) is pleased to announce
that its takeover offer for Dioro Exploration NL (ASXIO) closed at 5pm (Perth time)
on Wednesday 19 August 2009, by which time its relevant interest in Dioro had
reached *44.85%*.
To the best of Avoca’s knowledge, most of Dioro’s larger shareholders (including,
significantly both Baker Steel and La Mancha Resources Australia accepted Avoca’s
Offer.
Avoca Chairman Robert Reynolds said this clearly demonstrates that major and
sophisticated investors considered the Avoca Offer (and the receipt of Avoca scrip) to
be superior to the proposed Ramelius offer.
“Avoca would like to thank and welcome its new shareholders, who will now have the
opportunity to be part of an ASX200 company with the credentials to become
Australia’s pre-eminent mid-tier gold producer.”
Baker Steel is a specialist investment manager in gold and natural resources and La
Mancha is a Canadian listed gold company which operates the Frog’s Leg gold mine in
which it owns 51% and Dioro has a 49% stake.
“Importantly, Baker Steel and La Mancha Resources Australia did not accept Ramelius’
inferior offer and neither will Avoca,” Mr Reynolds said.
Launched on 14 April 2009, the Avoca takeover offer was open for approximately four
months.
Pursuant to Listing Rule 3.3, Avoca advises that as at the end of the offer period,
Avoca and its associates have a relevant interest in 44.85% of the fully paid ordinary
shares in Dioro, and therefore that compulsory acquisition will not proceed.
As Dioro’s major shareholder, Avoca intends to take an active interest in the affairs of
Dioro.


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## Supra (29 November 2009)

*AVO - Trident Mine*

Trident is to produce 190k ozs+ @$A 650/oz.. at least 10 year mine life.
Potential to find more gold in the surrounding highly prospective area.

AVO is a top quality mid rang Australian Gold producer......


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## fuzzie (4 December 2009)

After taking a first look at the numbers here it looks like AVO will have sustainable profits over the next few years, enough even to fully repay debt in say 2 years.

What are the chances a Gold stock like this will start paying dividends? Or do they just plan to pocket all the profits and use them to do things like mop up Dioro?


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## Supra (20 December 2009)

“Avoca would like to thank and welcome its new shareholders, who will now have the
opportunity to be part of an ASX200 company with the credentials to become
Australia’s pre-eminent mid-tier gold producer.”
Baker Steel is a specialist investment manager in gold and natural resources and La
Mancha is a Canadian listed gold company which operates the Frog’s Leg gold mine 

The Short Sellers & the fall in the Gold price have sent AVO into quick share price retraction Whilst other Mid Range Gold Stocks have stabilised, AVO continues to fall. Down over 10% so far this month.
Anybody care to say when the SP will stabilise & resume an upward trend?

With share holders such as AVO has on the register, the future should be secure. The mines are producing & there is profitability, but still the SP still heads south.

As for a dividend.............. you will be waiting a long time.............The debt will be reduced, but a dividend is not likely....


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## Logique (23 December 2009)

Don't blame me for the short selling, I've never owned any AVO. But as a result it's now more attractively priced.  Recent signs of consolidation in the USD vs world currencies haven't helped AVO and others like LGL, but with Charlie Aitken of Southern Cross Equities and other gold bugs cheering it, I think AVO will have it's day. It's on my watchlist.


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## Logique (5 January 2010)

Supra,
if you stuck it out with AVO, today's chart might cheer you up. Today was generally a good day for most commodities stocks, but all the same it's a nice move in AVO, finishing at 1.925


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## Nicks (6 January 2010)

Although I sold out at $2.16 I continue to follow AVO with interest as I now hold a chunk of Integra and Ramellius. I also think Avoca along with Integra, Ramellius and Dioro will all continue to perform.

What do people think of the latest increased offer for Dioro? Trying to get over 50% perhaps and trumping Ramellius who themselves increased their offer but no longer can increase it further perhaps.

I am of the opinion that there will be some further consolidation between all 4 of these players (hence my holdings). All of them have been making consistent excellent resources which also adds confidence to the area geographically and geologically.


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## Logique (13 January 2010)

If I was a DIO holder I wouldn't need to think about it for very long.

It must be odds-on now that AVO will get Dioro, with an ensuing upward re-rating as per, but not necessarily limited by the price range within the analysis in posts above, i.e. depending on movement of the gold price.  Noting particularly the 13th Aug 2009 article (thanks for that LeeTV).


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## JTLP (16 March 2010)

So what's been happening in the life of Avoca since the last post?

Today, CBA's holding in AVO was upped. I take this with a grain of salt as they have often chopped and changed their holding in the past year. The price was up today which was nice but again...watching and waiting.

The new Avoca, as they are calling it, has the following:

290M shares on issue
70% register instutional
12M options (management)
A market cap of A$550M ($1.95)
Cash & Cash Equivalents A$28.8M
H12010 Profit - $34M

The reserves and resource base (inclusive of DIO) is now 3.639 Million oz...a nice amount of gold in them hills!

They are targetting 190,000 oz's for the 2010 calender year at cash costs of $452 per oz (net of royalties).

They've also recently had some fantastic hits at Higginsville and Musket. An extract from the Paydirt Conference on Higginsville:
- Outstanding potential for additional exploration discoveries within 2,700km² of underexplored, high-degree tenure. High undiscovered endowment. Kew focus areas are: Higginsville Line of Lode. 1Moz in top 300m. Negligble testing below.

With the acquistion of DIO, they will have:
- annual production of ~280K oz
- Two 1.2 Mtpa plants
- 1.2M oz, 3.7M resources

They've also got big plans for DIO's tenements. The complete wrap up of DIO is expected to take between 6-8 weeks duration.

So 2 questions:
- Why no rerating of this potential powerhouse?
- Kennas, what's the MC to OZ for this producer incorpating the new DIO oz's?

I'm at a bit of a loss here


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## JTLP (18 March 2010)

Anybody out there...out there...out there

So today Avoca finally managed to break the magical $2 dollar barrier (briefly) hitting 2.03 before settling for the day on 2.00. Volume has been well up lately for this mid tier producer...somebody taking a position perhaps? Maybe with the incorporation of DIO people can see long term value?

Thoughts


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## JTLP (24 March 2010)

JTLP said:


> So what's been happening in the life of Avoca since the last post?
> 
> Today, CBA's holding in AVO was upped. I take this with a grain of salt as they have often chopped and changed their holding in the past year. The price was up today which was nice but again...watching and waiting.
> 
> ...






JTLP said:


> Anybody out there...out there...out there
> 
> So today Avoca finally managed to break the magical $2 dollar barrier (briefly) hitting 2.03 before settling for the day on 2.00. Volume has been well up lately for this mid tier producer...somebody taking a position perhaps? Maybe with the incorporation of DIO people can see long term value?
> 
> Thoughts




Talking to myself here and on other threads...ahh well.

AVO struggling to maintain the hold above the $2 mark. Actually closed today on 1.99 with an intraday high of 2.03. Volume is still around the million mark which is nice to see.

I'm hoping when they finalise the t/o of DIO and everything is all systems go they will receive some rerating for getting off without a hitch. In the interim I think AVO is pretty much subject to the gold price and macro eco factors.

Anybody have a cash cost per oz for DIO's processing plant?


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## kgee (24 March 2010)

I see Hartleys have a buy rec. on AVO and that they have a resource upgrade expected next month....not sure if its factored in...maybe they should put in a trading halt like AZM and pump the jump


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## alfaracing (6 April 2010)

JTLP Quote[Talking to myself here and on other threads...ahh well]

Nice rise of late. any one think it will continue at this rate? It will have to pull back a bit?
JTLP I'm listening to you, but I have nothing intelligent to add


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## JTLP (11 April 2010)

alfaracing said:


> JTLP Quote[Talking to myself here and on other threads...ahh well]
> 
> Nice rise of late. any one think it will continue at this rate? It will have to pull back a bit?
> JTLP I'm listening to you, but I have nothing intelligent to add




Hi alfaracing...no drama...at least you came in here!

I suspect this rating has got to do with gold having a bit of a leg up and people realising the potential value of the AVO/DIO merger. Will be a pretty big producer of gold once everything is finalised. And with a resource upgrade I think we can expect a further rise. I don't think that it has been factored into the SP but we shall see.

Hopefully AVO can sustain this level above $2. Looking at the chart AVO has made significant gains since February but it did top out around this point back in December '09 and fell back to the 1.50 - 1.60 level. Pretty safe buying in that area I guess.






Anybody have a combined cash cost for the new entity?


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## alfaracing (13 April 2010)

> Hopefully AVO can sustain this level above $2. Looking at the chart AVO has made significant gains since February but it did top out around this point back in December '09 and fell back to the 1.50 - 1.60 level. Pretty safe buying in that area I guess.




JTLP, I bought a small amount at $1.65 about a month ago. Finally, i feel like i've bought at a good price. I always seem to be buying too late. I put 20K in direct shares March 2007 went well up untill the crash. I,ve been hanging on for the ride, still a long way to getting my money back.


Anyway learning lots and enjoying the market turnaround.


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## JTLP (18 April 2010)

alfaracing said:


> JTLP, I bought a small amount at $1.65 about a month ago. Finally, i feel like i've bought at a good price. I always seem to be buying too late. I put 20K in direct shares March 2007 went well up untill the crash. I,ve been hanging on for the ride, still a long way to getting my money back.
> 
> 
> Anyway learning lots and enjoying the market turnaround.




Hi Alfa,

I'd be happy purchasing in that price. It seems like a good entry point for AVO from months gone by. As I said i'd be happy to get in again around there.

AVO has been holding steady and news has come in that all shares for DIO holders have now been issued. I'm suspecting that some have/will get dumped on market for some time but overall AVO should be ok. 

News about the upgrade should be due soon and there are a few broker reports on Avoca's website with price targets between 2.25 - 3...take your pick!

There seems to be a question about the LOM (life of mine/mining) for AVO so the recent pick up of DIO is good and an upgrade will be even better. Perhaps they may even sniff out another producer/near term junior? 

IGR would make sense for this as like DIO; they have their own plant and cash to get the project into production. Will have to wait and see and I would think AVO might try and get the DIO operation downpat before making another move but you never know (and they might like to see if IGR have the expertise to actually get the project over the line)...

JTLP


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## JTLP (12 May 2010)

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100512/pdf/31q94r95xbnym4.pdf

New announcement out from Avoca - it's a presentation about their operations and the future.

Very very positive read and even with this lingering tax I am very pleased to be holding Avoca. An efficient outfit with very low cash costs (ableit royalties paid to Morgan Stanley provide a bit of an overhang).

Things of note:
- There is a convertible note due in 2012 for $20.4m @ 1.74
- 250,000th ounce produced in March 2010 - Targetting 280k for FY11 and 400,000k for FY13 (this is significant as it is the first mention of such a target).
- Confident of increase producing ounces well beyond 2013
- 4 Producing Mines (2 underground, 2 open pit)
- Fantastic opportunity for further discoveries with very large, lightly explored tenemants. 
- Resource upgrade due out this month

I hold


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## explod (12 May 2010)

Yes very pleasing direction all round, in the current climate do not be too surprised to see this go past the all time high soon and hit $3, 

However I have been very wrong before so DYOR 

this is just my own humble gut feeling based on fundamentals and the current direction of the gold price.


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## JTLP (12 May 2010)

explod said:


> Yes very pleasing direction all round, in the current climate do not be too surprised to see this go past the all time high soon and hit $3,
> 
> However I have been very wrong before so DYOR
> 
> this is just my own humble gut feeling based on fundamentals and the current direction of the gold price.




Hi Explod,

I honestly believe Avoca was well on it's way to $3 pre RPST. Trending up on good volume and gold hitting all time highs (just checked Kitco and it's up and away again).

I am a big fan of the fundamentals of this company as they have always delivered and maintained humility. Even delivering the paste plant under budget!

Do you hold Explod?


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## explod (12 May 2010)

JTLP said:


> Hi Explod,
> 
> I honestly believe Avoca was well on it's way to $3 pre RPST. Trending up on good volume and gold hitting all time highs (just checked Kitco and it's up and away again).
> 
> ...




No, (but have) wish I did, but too scared of the market overall at the moment.  AVO does not suffer the soverign risk of most others.

Only physical for this little black duck at this time.  However be ready, in my view, for any savage correction as even the best are dragged down in a market slaughter.  Look back and check the happenings of the last correction.  So tight stops Champ.

Cheers and good luck, explod


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## lucifuge (13 May 2010)

explod said:


> .....However be ready, in my view, for any savage correction as even the best are dragged down in a market slaughter.  Look back and check the happenings of the last correction.  So tight stops Champ.
> ....




I'd actually argue that AVO has been fairly resilient since the intial crash began in late 2007. Comparison charts of AVO vs All Ords shows AVO has consistently outperformed the index. It has a very robust long term trend as a backbone that seems fairly invariant to other market forces. If anything, it would be one of the few stocks I'd actually pipe money into in the interests of portfolio protection.


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## Logique (13 May 2010)

I am biased as a holder.  

Like other gold producers/explorers, AVO benefits from the 'flight to safety' syndrome in volatile times, and if you look at the price history, as lucifuge says it is very consistent in the face of market volatility. In these times it actually has defensive characteristics. It's got gold in the ground, and actively and optimistically looking for more.  

Hi explod. Market slaughter...europe is getting it together, volatility is fading imho. Not that there won't be scares, and/or fat finger trades to come.

With the proposed RSPT, remember that AVO would get rebates for all that exploration that they will continue to conduct.


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## Logique (16 July 2010)

Looks like you were right JTLP and Explod, just a few cents more and it hits $3. And I strongly doubt that will be the end of the growth either. Gold has been below $1,200 per oz this week, but lately just back above this again.

A re-rating appears to be underway, the company keeps finding more gold, and is moving into that mid-tier producer area, with little other competition in that space.  What a colossus this company is turning out to be, and beautifully placed for the times.


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## JTLP (16 July 2010)

Logique said:


> Looks like you were right JTLP and Explod, just a few cents more and it hits $3. And I strongly doubt that will be the end of the growth either. Gold has been below $1,200 per oz this week, but lately just back above this again.
> 
> A re-rating appears to be underway, the company keeps finding more gold, and is moving into that mid-tier producer area, with little other competition in that space.  What a colossus this company is turning out to be, and beautifully placed for the times.




Thanks for the chart Logique.

They recently had a resource upgrade of 2.9M oz at the South Kalgoorlie operations to take Avoca's total resource to 6.7M oz (an increase of 76%).

Read all about it here: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100715/pdf/31rbkkxxwv8h5z.pdf

They have had some astronomical resource upgrades and finds...loving this story more and more everyday.


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## Logique (17 July 2010)

Looks like some website upgrading is going on this weekend, 
but checking out the links below should lead to a research report by Argonaut on Avoca's website, placing a Buy rating with revised valuation 3.88ps on AVO.  But this was dated in early July, i.e. before the 15th July resource upgrade announcement you mention JTLP.

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_argonaut_20100705.pdf

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/


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## JTLP (17 July 2010)

Logique said:


> Looks like some website upgrading is going on this weekend,
> but checking out the links below should lead to a research report by Argonaut on Avoca's website, placing a Buy rating with revised valuation 3.88ps on AVO.  But this was dated in early July, i.e. before the 15th July resource upgrade announcement you mention JTLP.
> 
> http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_argonaut_20100705.pdf
> ...




Brilliant! Thanks Logique

There has now been 5 research notes/upgrades uploaded onto the AVO website following the resource upgrade.

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_merrilllynch_201007.pdf

Merrill Lynch have upgraded there forecast from $2.70 to $3.00 following hte find.

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_jbwere_201007.pdf

Goldman Sachs have gone from $2.80 to $3.50

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_ubs_201007.pdf

UBS targeting $3.80

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_20100715.pdf

Deutsche Bank $3.30

http://www.avocaresources.com.au/downloads/research/avo_research_20100716.pdf

Ord Minnett from $3.30 to $4.16.

There was some nice buying on Friday to help the close and go against the trend of the other goldies...hopefully somebody taking a nice stake with confidence building in AVO.


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## Logique (22 July 2010)

Nothing personal Explod,
and not intending to be deliberately provocative, but this is frightening. Looking to the Australian investment future, I'm defensively staying overweight gold, at least until the election result and resulting composition of the Senate becomes clearer.



> http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/...mments/column_the_green_plan_to_kill_your_job
> 
> Vote Greens in this election and you won’t get cuddlier koalas, bigger hugs and cleaner rivers. In fact, you’ll be voting to “transition from coal exports”, which means ending a trade worth $55 billion a year .
> 
> ...


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## Sharkymon (5 September 2010)

Recent analyst reports have been more conservative than previous, providing predictions from $2.80 (Credit Suisse) to $3.30 (Deutsche Bank). This is pretty much where the price sits now.
Admittedly, the reports do admit being conservative - depending on the South Kal operations and the potential HBJ Superpit.

Avoca havent paid dividends and no indication as to weather they will or wont in the future. So is this stock worth holding on to (the eternal question) for the med term?
I've had this stock for a few years now and have had a pretty good ride, but is there much left in the tank?

(My first 'post', so be gentle)


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## Logique (6 September 2010)

Sharkymon said:


> Recent analyst reports have been more conservative than previous



Hi Sharkymon, it's a little bit to do with your own strategy and expectations, i.e. are you looking for a short term trade, or to move on to another stock, or another sector? It all depends. 

In terms of analysts reports, check what the analysts were saying AND Andean was worth as recently as two weeks ago. 

Avoca is a fav of mine, so I am biased, but since you ask, I'm not letting any of mine go. 

Cheers, Logique


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## JTLP (6 September 2010)

Logique said:


> Hi Sharkymon, it's a little bit to do with your own strategy and expectations, i.e. are you looking for a short term trade, or to move on to another stock, or another sector? It all depends.
> 
> In terms of analysts reports, check what the analysts were saying AND Andean was worth as recently as two weeks ago.
> 
> ...




Tempted to take some off the table now. It's been in blue sky for a little bit and I wouldn't be surprised to see it take a breather - I would also expect a few brokers advising clients to sell now that it has reached most of their targets (one they can claim they got right!).

Can't see much that will drive it up in the near future - aside from POG and merger activity in the sector. Will decide in the next few days. Is there any material news Logique?


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## mr. jeff (6 September 2010)

Do you think the major resource upgrade for AVO been reflected in their SP yet?
There wasn't a big chase for them like there would have been for a smaller company... AVO is now a medium player in a field where there are a couple of big boys and plenty of small players... either AVO will be buying or someone will buy AVO!?


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## Logique (7 September 2010)

JTLP said:


> Will decide in the next few days. Is there any material news Logique?



No haven't heard anything JTLP. 

I do know that once Newcrest have bedded in the Lihir takeover, they will be casting around for the next target. But there's a big field of potential acquisition targets out there. 

Anyway for me it's more about the fundamental story of price of gold. I have confidence in the management of AVO to harness this. I'm happy to ride any sp volatility along the way, even buy the dips.

But what suits me may not suit Sharkymon, so it's great that other people came on to provide balance.


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## JTLP (9 September 2010)

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFSGE6870GO20100908

If true then I am DISGUSTED if this pans out! A 9% premium? Is that a joke? What EAU were initially willing to do for AND...NCM for LGL? 

I was tempted to sell but will see how this unfolds. The AVO story is a long way from finished and it will be a great sadness to see my boys get pulled from underneath me


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## johenmo (9 September 2010)

Sad to see another Oz company turn into foreign owned.  Bought a few months ago and it's done ok for me.  Will watch how it pans out with some interest. Tks for the article.


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## JTLP (9 September 2010)

I probably should mention that it is a merger, not a takeover, hence the crappy premium / effectively you don't get one, and also the fact that you will be able to trade the new company on the ASX (CDI's). 

I'm just frustrated that they willbe merging. I liked AVO as a standalone and thought it had massive upside. I guess it still does; now it's just lumped with a mining operation in Turkey.


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## Logique (9 September 2010)

Many thanks JTLP.

Still digesting this, but my preliminary feeling is to adopt a 'wait and see' attitude, but overall I think it's a positive development. Anatolia seem to have some good holdings and reserves in Turkey, so there's promise in a new merged entity. Avoca will send out an explanatory booklet, so I'll study that.

The mechanics are interesting, it appears that initially (if they vote yes) AVO holders would receive 0.4453 TSX:ANO shares for each ASX:AVO, which will be tradeable as CDI's on the ASX.

I'm thinking that the final stage would then be that shares of TSX:ANO and ASX:AVO would be cancelled, with holders of ANO CDI's and AVO ordinary shares then receiving their pro-rata allocations in the new merged entity *Alacer Gold*, to be jointly listed on TSX and ASX. 

With the premium to AVO holders on the initial ANO CDI allocations, I'm not too fussed, as it's not a takeover, but a 50%-50% merger. The real upside is in the value accretion from the merged entity. With a wider geopolitical focus - a plus I think.


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## Logique (9 September 2010)

http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Business/2010/09/09/Avoca_to_merge_with_Turkish_miner_511004.html
*Avoca to merge with Turkish miner*
Thursday, September 09, 2010  » 12:33pm 



> Perth-based Avoca Resources Ltd says it will merge with Turkish gold producer Anatolia Minerals Development to create an intermediate global gold producer.
> 
> Avoca says directors of both companies are supportive of the merger of equals, which will create a new company with a combined market capitalisation of about $US2 billion ($2.18 bil).
> 
> ...


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## JTLP (9 September 2010)

Logique said:


> http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Business/2010/09/09/Avoca_to_merge_with_Turkish_miner_511004.html
> *Avoca to merge with Turkish miner*
> Thursday, September 09, 2010  » 12:33pm




After reading the merger Ann the bitterness in my mouth just got worse. 

If you read the advantages to both companies...it would appear Anatolia absolutely rake it in - reduced sovereign risk, reduced single mine risk, exposure to Avocas technical expertise. 

And what do we AVO holders get? Why not flip the situation around? Increased sovereign risk, a single mine - lots of risk...and a 9% premium to our closing sp...which finished DOWN 4% today?!?!!!

Anybody else feeling a little done over here? Management must be getting some sweet kickbacks for this disaster...


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## explod (9 September 2010)

I think holders will find this mix to be a good result.  Uppermost is the duel listing with the Canadian exposure.  Sentiment towards gold stocks still greater than in Aussie yet. 

One of my favs., but not holding at the moment.


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## Sean K (9 September 2010)

JTLP said:


> After reading the merger Ann the bitterness in my mouth just got worse.
> 
> If you read the advantages to both companies...it would appear Anatolia absolutely rake it in - reduced sovereign risk, reduced single mine risk, exposure to Avocas technical expertise.
> 
> ...



I agree on the surface of it JTLP. I am a bit skeptical about why they harp on about the 'merger of equals' tag, when clearly they are not.


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## Logique (10 September 2010)

So it wasn't the full takeover and 30% margin you might have been hoping for, too bad.  Alright sell down your holdings then if you're so pessimistic. You're not breaking my heart, and I'll be waiting.

What I read in the merger proposal - is that Turkey has corporate tax of only 20%, excellent infrastructure and long-term reduced electric costs. VAT exemptions & recoverable against gold exports. And no super profits tax! ANO is a low cost producer, and Turkey is one of the largest under-explored mineral belts in the world, in which ANO has an early-mover advantage.  Turkish GDP 2010 growth estimate is 5.2%. 

Anatolia has bigger reserves of gold, plus big resources of silver and copper.

*ANO* Total resources: (Au -gold, Ag -silver, Cu -copper)
Copler - 6.04 Moz Au; 16.20 Moz Ag - first gold pour in Q4 2010
Karakartal - 709 Koz Au; 389 Koz Cu
Cevizlidere - 1.57 Moz Au; 3.73 Moz Cu 

*AVO* Total resources: (Au -gold)
Higginsville - 1.57 Moz Au
South Kalgoorlie - 4.51 Moz Au
Frogs Leg (49%) - 569 Koz Au 

Other benefits to Avoca holders:
- greater access to global capital markets through enhanced scale and diversity
- increased exposure to North American investor base and TSX listing - currently seem more bullish gold over there.
- anticipated improved trading liquidity
- potential valuation uplift through combined companies increased scale


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## JTLP (10 September 2010)

Logique why are you so defensive of the merger pal? It's quite apparent that AVO are getting the short straw - down 7.5% today whilst other goldies are down by about 2.5%. Is this push down to make the deal look better? Who knows. 

An article in Fairfax today had Rohan Williams, head honcho at AVO, come out and defend the bid...saying all the positives. There was an analyst in there who mentioned that he did not think the deal would get off the ground in its current form...guess we will find out soon enough. Sorry no links as travelling and on zi iPhone 

Some more food for thought -
1. Pala have majority holding in both - convenient merger?
2. Mr Castro sits on both companies boards. Convenient?
3. Anatolia won't have to raise a dime and just mooch off AVO's profits to bring there mine into full operation. 


Explain to me why a company with various producing mines and on the right path would want to merge with a non-producer with 1 mine and high political and sovereign risk? 

No offense intended but if you can clearly explain why then I'll see more clearly...because right now I feel like AVO holders are getting the Joan Collins special.


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## Logique (10 September 2010)

Just a bit grumpy this morning JTLP that's all. Surprise anns will do that to you. 

It's going to take the vote of 75% of AVO holders  at the meeting in December, and 50% of ANO-TSX holders when they meet, so I want it to be a considered decision all round.  Bouncing opinions around helps.

Yes Avoca are more advanced producers, but ANO are saying they will pour gold in Q4 2010. Does that invalidate the long term value built into the merger.

You keep saying that Turkey has sovereign risk. I'll need to study on that before I'm convinced of the extent of the risk - seems to be plenty of companies in there (including Eldorado of recent ASX-AND fame.)  I wanted to point out that recent federal politics has introduced an element of sovereign risk in Australia, eg the proposed MRRT minerals tax. 

ANO-TSX fell more than 8% last night, so they're not too keen across the pond either, so far anyway. Perhaps they think it's Avoca that's getting the better deal .  Might be a challenge to get enough shareholder votes anywhere.


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## Logique (13 September 2010)

Interesting comments from Argonaut Securities. But read the entire article for balance. My bolds. 

On Friday, ANO-TSX regained most of what it lost on Thursday (+6.8%).



> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/avoca-defends-merger-20100909-1539t.html
> *Avoca defends merger *
> Barry FitzGerald
> *September 10, 2010*
> ...


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## JTLP (13 September 2010)

There was an article in the AFR today about the deal between Avoca and Anatolia.

Basically it was saying how the deal is an absolute stinker for AVO - and many analysts/brokers had been flooded with complaints from shareholders and that the deal only required a backlash of 25% to fail. Would make me happy to see it fail 

There was also a mention of El Dorado possibly making a bid due to their presence in Turkey.

I have a little theory on the merger:
- It was never about equals - it was all about the break fee. Most likely this deal won't get off the ground due to Avoca shareholder's unwillingness. Avoca are forced to cough up the $10M; Anatolia get a sweet capital gain - put it towards there mine/construction and everybody walks away...Avoca a little poorer but a little wiser for trying to pull the rug from underneath its shareholders.


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## Sharkymon (15 September 2010)

I hope I haven't jinxed Avoca - a couple of days after my first post all this merger of equals kerfuffle happens 
Although the price did take a bit of a dip (I guess that could have gone either way form the initial market reaction), it seems to have recovered.

I can see the logic in both the for and against arguments from the previous few posts and I admit I was surprised that this "equal" merger was happening with a company yet to enter production. 
My other thought was that there may be some upside given the uncertainty surrounding our resources rent tax and the potential exposure to other metals.

Like Logique, I have a soft spot for AVO as I've held it since their pre production days and I'm also adopting a wait and see approcach. I guess the ride wasn't over after all, so I'm strapping myself in for more ..


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## Logique (15 September 2010)

Hi Sharkymon, no way to know how AVO shareholders will vote in mid-December, the 75% min. vote required is a healthy majority. Over in Canada, Anatolia shareholders are happy campers, the sp is back where it was a week ago (7.52). 

Actually JTLP and others might be doing us a favour if they talk the merger down, it might help us extract a better deal 

Heard the news item below overnight, and while I don't pretend to any real knowledge of Turkish politics, it did touch some good bases, as bolded. 



> *Turkey approves constitutional changes*
> http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7960300
> 
> Mon Sep 13 2010  By Hande Culpan
> ...


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## Logique (2 October 2010)

Just a couple of updated charts. Looks like both Anatolia and Avoca shareholders are grumpy about the proposed merger, with the result that both companies share prices now look technically oversold. Hasn't changed any of my views, it's just the market in operation.


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## JTLP (4 October 2010)

Logique said:


> Just a couple of updated charts. Looks like both Anatolia and Avoca shareholders are grumpy about the proposed merger, with the result that both companies share prices now look technically oversold. Hasn't changed any of my views, it's just the market in operation.




Dear Avoca Board,

Surely the shareholders have spoken in volumes by the consistent slide of the SP since the merger announcement. Please pay the $10M break fee, let Anatolia continue on their merry way and AVO can regain it's former glory and go from strength to strength. 

Sincerely,

An angry JTLP

In all serious...this is beyond a joke. How can the board possibly let this one go through now? The amount of negative publicity and press...corporate fat cats need to have some respect IMO. 

Anatolia have been sliding as well...but why? The deal far outweighs benefits in their favour than it does for ours!!!


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## Logique (4 October 2010)

Yes a frustrating state of affairs for holders on both sides of the pond. Must be a bit of pressure on both boards now.


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## JTLP (27 November 2010)

Did anybody go to the AGM or read the presentation that was made at the AGM?

Quite laughable how they are trying to sell this merger...the presentation shows the contribution to mining ore that both companies will give...AVO dominates all charts...so why do I want this crappy Anatolia?

Oh that's right - they've got 1 mine. We've got 3. Easier to concentrate all your energy on 1. 

I will be voting NO to the merger.


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