# KGN - Kogan.com Limited



## System (13 June 2016)

Kogan.com was founded by Ruslan Kogan in 2006, with an initial product range of two private label LCD televisions. Since then, it has grown without external equity funding to become Australia's leading pure play online retail website, generating more traffic and Google search queries than any other Australian pure play online retail website. In the calendar year ended 31 December 2015, 621,300 unique customers purchased from Kogan.com, driven by a record 52 million visits to Kogan.com's Australian website, in addition to Kogan.com's database of approximately 2.3 million email subscribers as at 31 December 2015.

It is anticipated that KGN will list on the ASX on 30 June 2016.

http://www.kogancorporate.com


----------



## McLovin (7 July 2016)

Early days, but down 15% on debut.


----------



## Craton (7 July 2016)

Curious to know, did KGN decide to float before or after the purchase of DSE's online store, anyone know?


----------



## pixel (7 July 2016)

Not a very auspicious debut ... :1zhelp:


----------



## SmokeyGhost (7 July 2016)

I wish holders of this share well but I have an aversion to placing my funds into an IPO.  Have seen too many tank and not over the short-term either.  Plus I wouldn't know a good IPO from a bad one.


----------



## notting (7 July 2016)

If I had to choose to be long or short I'd be backing this guy for sure.
He baught Dick at the Op Shop, after the fire, not when it was on fire from the used car salesman.


----------



## McLovin (7 July 2016)

notting said:


> If I had to choose to be long or short I'd be backing this guy for sure.
> He baught Dick at the Op Shop, after the fire, not when it was on fire from the used car salesman.




What did he pay for it though? Have a look at the _lack_ of brands at Dick Smith now. Suppliers won't sell to an online only retailer. And the brands they do have they don't get the full range. So Samsung phones, but no Samsung TV's. No Xbox, no Playstation. It's just rebadged Kogan.


----------



## notting (7 July 2016)

McLovin said:


> What did he pay for it though? Have a look at the _lack_ of brands at Dick Smith now. Suppliers won't sell to an online only retailer. And the brands they do have they don't get the full range. So Samsung phones, but no Samsung TV's. No Xbox, no Playstation. It's just rebadged Kogan.




Wasn't really much to do with the Dick deal it was what he was doing with his online business before that.  I felt what ever he bought of Dick would have just made some entry points easier into other areas of the market easier.

Risks would be new Chinese entrants like Gearbest marketing and now selling directly to Aussies very cheaply


----------



## notting (11 July 2016)

No mucking around, already got banner adds running up allover the joint.

The Dick Smith online thing was the only thing happening for them




price stabalising and looking up.


----------



## notting (26 July 2016)

Testing the lows, do we really trust him?  Was he getting out while the going was still good?
4 times over subscribed and now trading at a 23.7% discount to the float price, as it did on day one.


----------



## Ferret (8 September 2016)

Results commentary claimed the DSE purchase was working out better than expected.  Price spiked on this news, but now slipping back again.
I'm watching for a decent entry point.


----------



## notting (9 September 2016)

Yeah the kept pouting the Dick Smith Online purchase all through the report like it was an infomercial.
But they are happy with it and it may have been that which sent jitters through the dears (dears get F#$ked by stags)
So that's all good.
It seems the market is now looking for a few earnings reports before it fully trusts.


----------



## dpgrubesic (20 October 2016)

High risk high reward? 

or a knife waiting to fall? 

Kogan.com is a great idea and i reckon if it can become 'trusted' it could easily take market share off JBH and HVN with lower prices. 

Anyone think it could be worth a shot?


----------



## notting (9 December 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> Anyone think it could be worth a shot?






> Mr Ruslan Kogan On market purchase $158,111.85




That should answer your question.
I'm getting in with him!


----------



## SuperGlue (30 July 2017)

notting said:


> That should answer your question.
> I'm getting in with him!




You still in notting?
Sitting on a comfortable profit.


----------



## SuperGlue (31 July 2017)

SuperGlue said:


> View attachment 72073
> 
> 
> You still in notting?
> Sitting on a comfortable profit.




"Mr Ruslan Kogan On market purchase $158,111.85"

And so does Ruslan Kogan.

I would have thought that with Amazon Australia about ready to launch soon, would create more headache for Kogan.


----------



## SuperGlue (18 December 2017)

BO on daily & weekly chart.
Announcement : KGN going into pet insurance.


----------



## greggles (12 April 2018)

Retail, but not bricks and mortar.

So what can traditional bricks and mortar retailers learn from Ruslan Kogan?


----------



## greggles (23 April 2018)

Looks like I spoke too soon about Kogan. The company released their Q3 FY18 Cashflow Statement today and copped a belting from the market, ending the day down $1.64 (17.75%) to $7.60.

Revenue grew 46.1% and Kogan Mobile seems to be performing well but it might have been the $635,000 quarterly loss that sparked the sell off. Hard to tell.


----------



## notting (24 April 2018)

Got way ahead of itself.
They were talking it up like it was the Ausi Amazon.
Biggest load of crap.
 I like the company, thought it was a good bet at 1.40 and it was a good sell at 4 ish too!!!


----------



## leyy (21 May 2018)

Kogan has recovered most of the price drops in April and is now back near its ATH. Obviously the market was expecting more from the quarterly update.

I think there is some more room to grow with Kogan, especially in the broadband and mobile market.

The devastating nationwide multiple outages of Telstra will continue to shift dissatisfied customers to carriers including the likes of Kogan where they have a terrific value proposition.

Not sure how well they will perform in health, life and pet insurance. But if past performance or history is an indicator with selling verticals to their "loyal followers and subscribers" to low cost models it may prove to be successful.

KGN is my top performer of the year with an avg price of $3.3, I am keen to sell but haven't held this for more than 12 months for the CGT discount.

will continue to monitor closely as i will sell if the fundamentals of the business changes.

Ruslan Kogan is a good operator/CEO, very involved and hands on in the business. Very smart guy heavily focused on data and analytics. It helps when he has a lot of skin in the game with over 66 million shares worth > $615 million.


----------



## leyy (1 June 2018)

A late announcement after the market closed today "Kogan.com to launch Kogan Mobile in New Zealand"

Kogan.com Limited (Kogan.com; ASX:KGN) has signed agreements with Vodafone New Zealand Limited (Vodafone) that will see Kogan.com offering telecommunications services in New Zealand.

Vodafone is the largest network operator in New Zealand followed by Spark, there is also less competition compared to Australia. Vodafone has circa 40% market share in NZ compared to 15% in Australia. There are circa 6.5 million mobile phone connections in New Zealand.

A very good story here, Kogan Mobile is growing at over 300% YoY in Australia, if marketed correctly Kogan.com has a very good growth story here in New Zealand. Kogan Mobile now accounts for over 12% of GOP for all total sales.


----------



## greggles (6 June 2018)

Kogan shares sold off after news that Ruslan Kogan and David Shafer tried to sell a rumoured $100 million of KGN stock the day after announcing that Kogan was making its long-awaited move into whitegoods.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...s-another-big-share-sale-20180605-p4zjix.html


----------



## leyy (6 June 2018)

very disappointing after two positive announcements, poorly managed by the founders.

Stock has been hammered 16% in two days, may be a bit of an oversell reaction but doesn't give confidence to the market.


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2018)

leyy said:


> very disappointing after two positive announcements, poorly managed by the founders.
> 
> Stock has been hammered 16% in two days, may be a bit of an oversell reaction but doesn't give confidence to the market.




This will probably break its upward trend. It's a pretty bad look to have a positive announcement then have the founders try and unload a large amount of stock and fail. It's pretty obvious they want to sell down a large chunk of their s/holding which is going to weigh on the stock. And the question is, why? 

This was pretty good buy when it started going getting serious earnings momentum with a sp that was going to be really levered to any upgrade to the business' prospects.


----------



## leyy (7 June 2018)

McLovin said:


> This will probably break its upward trend. It's a pretty bad look to have a positive announcement then have the founders try and unload a large amount of stock and fail. It's pretty obvious they want to sell down a large chunk of their s/holding which is going to weigh on the stock. And the question is, why?
> 
> This was pretty good buy when it started going getting serious earnings momentum with a sp that was going to be really levered to any upgrade to the business' prospects.




Agree, it is a terrible look. It could of been executed and announced to the public in a more transparent way. Look at Appen (APX), where the founder/chairman sold off 15% of his holdings and how it was executed and announced to the public to maintain confidence in the underlying business.

I know that Ruslan shelled out $38.8 M for a mansion in Toorak/Melbourne in late April this year. There were queries on HOW Ruslan would pay for this purchase. Standard 45 day settlement of the property transaction would be about June to pay the balance of the property.

On another note, I will continue to hold but will monitor closely. I still believe the fundamentals of the business have not changed, just more of a PR disaster and bad execution from management. I guess only time will tell if they are able to maintain the current traction of growth and increase market share. Could be a good buying opportunity if you really look at it.

The founders Ruslan/David still have a 45.8% and 13.7% ownership of all outstanding stock which is some serious skin/stake in the game, even if they were to offload the suggested $100 M combined. It wouldn't be a bad thing if more stock was open to institutional/retail investors.


----------



## McLovin (13 June 2018)

Gotta love the wording from their CoDI this morning



> Kogan.com Limited (ASX: KGN, the Company) advises that Mr Ruslan Kogan and Mr David Shafer
> received an unsolicited bid for 6,000,000 shares this morning. They have reluctantly accepted the bid due to personal financial commitments.




Reluctantly accepted. OK.


----------



## greggles (13 June 2018)

hahahaha.... reluctantly accepted I bet.  

I reckon they're also dumping quite a few in the open market. 6 million shares won't get them that $100 million they were after.


----------



## McLovin (13 June 2018)

greggles said:


> hahahaha.... reluctantly accepted I bet.
> 
> I reckon they're also dumping quite a few in the open market. 6 million shares won't get them that $100 million they were after.




It's just a strange way to frame it. Shareholders don't care whether management's price expectations were met, beyond their "personal financial commitments" meaning more selling will follow. If they had got the price they were looking for would the announcement have said they "accepted with zest and delirium at the price achieved"?


----------



## greggles (13 June 2018)

McLovin said:


> It's just a strange way to frame it. Shareholders don't care whether management's price expectations were met, beyond their "personal financial commitments" meaning more selling will follow. If they had got the price they were looking for would the announcement have said they "accepted with zest and delirium at the price achieved"?



I think it was a bit of attempted damage control after the news broke that Kogan and Shafer were out to sell their KGN shares into strength after a good announcement so they could get a better price. It looked greedy and opportunistic, which it was. So now they are downplaying the sale by saying that they did it reluctantly. It's all very transparent but I think they felt they had to do it. The ploy didn't work.


----------



## leyy (13 June 2018)

hopefully the SP can move forward from here on, since the selling has passed.

reviewing my stops and will probably sell if prices gets under $7.00 although the next real support is $6.25

its dropped 25% in less than a week so have given back a bit of my profits


----------



## leyy (19 July 2018)

I ended up accumulating more KGN at around $6.75 instead of selling.

Thought it was a much needed retracement before the next leg up.

I don't see how the fundamentals of the business have changed, yes the founders made a massive screw up with the share sales.

Only time will tell soon.


----------



## notting (19 July 2018)

leyy said:


> yes the founders made a massive screw up with the share sales.



No.  They made massive profits and are fantastic business men.  Do you really think they give a shi7 whether everyone panics and starts selling the rediculously overpriced, great business becaus they do what any one with half a brain should do in that situation but doesn't normally have the balls?
They couldn't give a rats toss if the price went down to 4 which is about where it should be and is still great considering where it started.
They could just buy some more and contunue to run the thing as well as they do!  No mistake what so ever.
It's still on a PE of about 60 at 6.88 where it is now.  What kind of idiot was buying it at 9?  Momentum traders? Well who, running a business for oneself and share holders gives shi7 about them?
This time one year ago it was trading at 1.60 something.  investors in this company should have a statue of Mr Kogan in their living rooms!


----------



## Mr Bear (20 July 2018)

notting said:


> No.  They made massive profits and are fantastic business men.  Do you really think they give a shi7 whether everyone panics and starts selling the rediculously overpriced, great business becaus they do what any one with half a brain should do in that situation but doesn't normally have the balls?
> They couldn't give a rats toss if the price went down to 4 which is about where it should be and is still great considering where it started.
> They could just buy some more and contunue to run the thing as well as they do!  No mistake what so ever.
> It's still on a PE of about 60 at 6.88 where it is now.  What kind of idiot was buying it at 9?  Momentum traders? Well who, running a business for oneself and share holders gives shi7 about them?
> This time one year ago it was trading at 1.60 something.  investors in this company should have a statue of Mr Kogan in their living rooms!



Why should price be at $4? The pe is irrelevant, do you want a company growing earnings at 40% to trade on a FY19 pe of 15x?

Whether it was smart for the owners to sell down we won’t know for a couple years, there was a buyer for $42m worth of stock that thought it was a good deal.


----------



## peter2 (24 July 2018)

Kogan:  Revenue growth of 40% (YOY), EBITDA growth 90% (YOY)  That's good isn't it?
Shares are being sold down and price has broken significant support.


----------



## notting (24 July 2018)

Mr Bear said:


> there was a buyer for $42m worth of stock that thought it was a good deal.



They bagged a massive profit by floating a company for next to nothing.
That's a good deal. How blind do you have to be!?
Yeah 40% PE would be more appropriate and that's where it looks like it is going!


----------



## Mr Bear (24 July 2018)

notting said:


> They bagged a massive profit by floating a company for next to nothing.
> That's a good deal. How blind do you have to be!?
> Yeah 40% PE would be more appropriate and that's where it looks like it is going!



What’s a 40% pe? It’s not a good deal to exit a business for less than its worth.. it’s subjective if you think it’s expensive why don’t you short it.


----------



## notting (24 July 2018)

I did!
I'm not recommending that right now, however.
It will likely run again quite aggressively.
Let's see what it does below it's new resistance level.
I'm not that interested in trading it that's not why I'm talking about it.
Just commending Mr. Kogan......Again.....
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/kgn-kogan-com-limited.31110/#post-912677

PS. To clarify my above comments When I said they floated it at next to nothing I meant at no cost to them!!


----------



## leyy (24 July 2018)

peter2 said:


> Kogan:  Revenue growth of 40% (YOY), EBITDA growth 90% (YOY)  That's good isn't it?
> Shares are being sold down and price has broken significant support.
> 
> View attachment 88514



Results were under analyst expectations around 10-15% with no real explanation hence the massive drop.

Analysts were expecting around $26-$28m EBITDA , based on the 90% increase only brings FY EBITDA to $24.75m.

I guess I was wrong, I had a tight stop was stopped out at around $6.00 of my recent accumulation. 

I have a feeling that the stock my drop a bit more as several brokers will re rate and downgrade valuations. Before it moves up again.

I will also be looking to sell out of my long term holdings , as I have given back far too much profits.

Would like to enter again when momentum changes.


Cheers


----------



## notting (26 July 2018)

leyy said:


> Results were under analyst expectations around 10-15% with no real explanation hence the massive drop.




Now you have  a bone to chew, almost looks like inside trading, but not quite.
Still a great result.  If people thought it was worth where it was then they should be buying.
I didn't, let's see if it gets to 4.
I'd love to see people totally lose confidence in him over this, then watch him continue to run an awesome business.
If he hadn't sold I would of thought he was an idiot and lost confidence.


----------



## notting (1 August 2018)

Apparently there is some interest at 5ish. up 7% today!
Hasn't laid down a base, but this tends to be a V kind of stock as apposed to a U!
HVN, JBH, BBN!, and even MYR have been catching a few bids lately too!


----------



## leyy (13 August 2018)

More interest in KGN up over 15% in the last few days. Didn't think it will pick up again so quickly.

Kogan will report its full year results on Friday 17th. 

Will be watching with interest with a potential re-entry.


----------



## leyy (17 August 2018)

Kogan reported FY18 results this morning.

BOOM! Watch Kogan go today.

They actually made guidance of EBITDA $26m on the lower end of $26-28m, where previously they reported they would not make guidance, hence the stock was smashed. 

I re-entered yesterday around $6.25

Summary below:


----------



## aus_trader (30 November 2018)

Predators seem to be circling around the most heavily fallen stocks as seen from the opportunistic low-ball bid to grab the Aussie retailer Reject Shop Ltd (*TRS*) by some private equity group called Allensford. This shows there is good value in some of these stocks given the price fall.

Not suggesting there may be another low-ball bid on KGN by another parasite but there may be some value at these levels of $3.20's hence tipped for December competition.


----------



## barney (30 November 2018)

aus_trader said:


> *there may be some value at these levels of $3.20's hence tipped for December competition*.




Smart move methinks ….


----------



## mikejosef (19 January 2019)

Interesting move up over the last 2 days - over 30% gain after a report from good Christmas sales. What are your thoughts on Kogan as a company? Initially i was concerned about disruptors like Amazon, but im thinking there is still a place for it as a smaller locally based supplier for the medium term.

FYI i entered a trade $3.4 and plan to hold for 1-2 years.


----------



## aus_trader (19 January 2019)

mikejosef said:


> View attachment 91454
> 
> 
> Interesting move up over the last 2 days - over 30% gain after a report from good Christmas sales. What are your thoughts on Kogan as a company? Initially i was concerned about disruptors like Amazon, but im thinking there is still a place for it as a smaller locally based supplier for the medium term.
> ...



Don't know how high it'll go in the long term but it was surely due for a bounce as it was way over sold, and that's what we are seeing. See my comment earlier on 30 Nov.


----------



## explod (19 January 2019)

I have had a Kogan phone plan for 18 months.  Not good pick up in the bush but wherever I go an excellent system.  Have no home phone line and my computer runs (tethered) through my phone.  At $23 per month and 23 gigs of data, unlimited calls and texts people are increasingly turning to it.  NBN, got to be joking.  In fact I have of late only been using less than half so shortly will be halving the gigs for a fair price reduction too.

Recently  purchased a new Kogan 24 inch TV online, delivered to my door in five days for a total of $135.  And its great.

But the bit I really like is that the CEO and developer of this Company grew up and lives in Melbourne.  No doubt his products are manufactured offshore, but what isn't'.

https://www.kogan.com/au/ruslan-kogan/

Ruslan appears a bright spark and I believe you could be on a good thing here aus_trader


----------



## bigdog (27 February 2019)

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...complained-about-company-20190226-p510bd.html

*Kogan.com beats Apple as most complained about company*

*By Patrick Hatch and Rachel Clun*
February 26, 2019

Online retailer Kogan.com has been shamed as the company that customers are complaining about most often to the NSW consumer rights regulator, with a surge in unhappy shoppers after Christmas.

Data from NSW Fair Trading shows there were 70 complaints made about Kogan.com in January, up from 33 complaints about the company in January 2017 and none in January 2016.

Most (41) of the complaints about Kogan in January were over the quality of its goods, with the balance relating to delivery times, refunds and warranties.

Technology giant Apple was the second most complained about company in January, with 39 complaints. The collapsed travel agent Bestjet and Samsung Electronics were equal third with 34 complaints each, followed by Harvey Norman with 29.

Kogan.com was also the most complained about in October 2018 (36 complaints), July 2018 (42 complaints), and December 2017 (27 complaints).






Just over half of Kogan’s sales are from its own private label products, spanning consumer electronics, pet products, homewares, outdoors gear and exercise equipment. It also sells products from major brands.

A Kogan.com spokesman said the company had just finished its busiest half of trading ever and that its high customer satisfaction rating showed that most shoppers were happy with its service.

"When you deliver 4.5 million orders for tens of thousands of people around the country, a tiny fraction experience problems and we're always looking to improve," he said.

"We look forward to working closely with these customers to resolve any outstanding issues and continue to serve them in the future."

Australian and Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Rob Sims said on Tuesday that electronics and whitegoods retailers would be an "enforcement priority" for the watchdog this year.

“We’re concerned that many manufacturers and large retailers are not complying with consumer guarantee laws," Mr Sims said.

“Electrical and whitegoods products are the second most complained about industry after motor vehicles.”

Kogan.com has been growing rapidly in recent years as it branches into new products and services, with the number of products it ships annually growing from 2.5 to 4.5 million over the past two years.

The total value of products and services Kogan.com sold in the six months to December 31 was $277 million, up 13 per cent from $245 million in the same period a year earlier, while its number of “active customers” who purchased from the website in the past 12 months grew 32 per cent year-on-year to 1.54 million at the end of December.

Kogan.com listed on the ASX in 2016 at $1.80 and its shares have performed strongly since. They closed down 2.6 per cent at $4.14 on Tuesday. However that is down significantly on its all-time highs of almost $10 in March 2018.

NSW is the only state that publishes the names of companies that have been subject to more than 10 complaints in a month.

Companies that appear on the register are assigned a case manager to help resolve customer complaints and help improve complaint handling procedures.

If complaints appears to show that a law has been breached, they complaints can be referred to specialist NSW Fair Trading staff to investigate if any enforcement or disciplinary action should be taken.


----------



## Mattchimoku (28 February 2019)

70 complaints for 4.5mil orders isn't to bad at all imo!


----------



## SuperGlue (12 April 2019)

Mattchimoku said:


> 70 complaints for 4.5mil orders isn't to bad at all imo!







Must have resolved all the complaints and the SP has sneak out the back door the past few days.


----------



## SuperGlue (16 April 2019)

Ex Dividend Date: 18/4/2019
Dividend: 0.065


----------



## bigdog (24 April 2019)

Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/04/23/why-the-kogan-com-share-price-rocketed-higher-again-today/

*Why the Kogan.com share price rocketed higher again today*
James Mickleboro | April 23, 2019 |
One of the best performers on the Australian share market on Tuesday is the *Kogan.com Ltd* (ASX: KGN) share price.

Fresh from a 20% gain on Thursday, the ecommerce company’s shares are up a further 9% to $5.84 this afternoon.

*Why has the Kogan share price rocketed higher?*
Investors have been fighting to get hold of Kogan’s shares since the release of its business update last week.

That update revealed that company’s active customers had grown 23.4% year on year to 1,589,000 as at March 31. The increase in customer numbers helped lift gross transaction value by 17.5% and revenue by 9.5% during the third quarter.

Another positive was that margin improvement led to its gross profit growing by 28.4% and EBITDA increasing by a whopping 96.4% on the prior corresponding period during the quarter. The latter means that EBITDA is now up 15% year to date after the company recovered from a very disappointing start to the financial year.

In addition to this, Kogan announced that it was taking on *Carsales.Com Ltd* (ASX: CAR) and* iSelect Ltd* (ASX: ISU) through the launch of two new verticals.

The first is the launch of *Kogan Cars* in partnership with *Elicpx Group Ltd* (ASX: ECX).

Management advised that: “Kogan Cars will secure new cars at competitive prices from dealers across Australia while also enabling customers to trade-in cars from a wide range of makes and models. Kogan will receive fees from Eclipx Group under the arrangement. Further details will be announced closer to the launch of Kogan Cars, which is expected to occur prior to the end of the financial year.”

Another new vertical that the company has launched is *Kogan Energy Compare*, which “reflects its initial entry into the energy market, via the launch of an energy comparison tool enabling customers to simply upload an existing bill to see if any savings are available.”

Management advised that it intends to continue to explore a Kogan-branded energy offering in parallel to this service.

*Should you invest?*
Whilst I was pleased to see Kogan’s performance improve again and can’t say I’m surprised to see its shares race higher, I’m still not a buyer of its shares at this point. Due to its inconsistent performance, I intend to keep my powder dry for the time being and wait to see how its full year results look in August.

Instead of Kogan I would be buying this small cap share that has been tipped for very big things.


----------



## bigdog (24 April 2019)

Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/04/23/why-the-kogan-com-share-price-rocketed-higher-again-today/

*Why the Kogan.com share price rocketed higher again today*
James Mickleboro | April 23, 2019 |
One of the best performers on the Australian share market on Tuesday is the *Kogan.com Ltd* (ASX: KGN) share price.

Fresh from a 20% gain on Thursday, the ecommerce company’s shares are up a further 9% to $5.84 this afternoon.

*Why has the Kogan share price rocketed higher?*
Investors have been fighting to get hold of Kogan’s shares since the release of its business update last week.

That update revealed that company’s active customers had grown 23.4% year on year to 1,589,000 as at March 31. The increase in customer numbers helped lift gross transaction value by 17.5% and revenue by 9.5% during the third quarter.

Another positive was that margin improvement led to its gross profit growing by 28.4% and EBITDA increasing by a whopping 96.4% on the prior corresponding period during the quarter. The latter means that EBITDA is now up 15% year to date after the company recovered from a very disappointing start to the financial year.

In addition to this, Kogan announced that it was taking on *Carsales.Com Ltd* (ASX: CAR) and* iSelect Ltd* (ASX: ISU) through the launch of two new verticals.

The first is the launch of *Kogan Cars* in partnership with *Elicpx Group Ltd* (ASX: ECX).

Management advised that: “Kogan Cars will secure new cars at competitive prices from dealers across Australia while also enabling customers to trade-in cars from a wide range of makes and models. Kogan will receive fees from Eclipx Group under the arrangement. Further details will be announced closer to the launch of Kogan Cars, which is expected to occur prior to the end of the financial year.”

Another new vertical that the company has launched is *Kogan Energy Compare*, which “reflects its initial entry into the energy market, via the launch of an energy comparison tool enabling customers to simply upload an existing bill to see if any savings are available.”

Management advised that it intends to continue to explore a Kogan-branded energy offering in parallel to this service.

*Should you invest?*
Whilst I was pleased to see Kogan’s performance improve again and can’t say I’m surprised to see its shares race higher, I’m still not a buyer of its shares at this point. Due to its inconsistent performance, I intend to keep my powder dry for the time being and wait to see how its full year results look in August.

Instead of Kogan I would be buying this small cap share that has been tipped for very big things.

View attachment 94044


----------



## rnr (30 April 2019)

An interesting flag setup for Kogan. Is it ready breakout?


----------



## JTLP (11 May 2019)

All this diversification makes me uncomfortable. Why the need to do it? Just another thing to invest capital in to and try and manage. Why not maintain your core streams and make them super efficient?


----------



## bigdog (20 January 2020)

ASX announcement this morning
20/01/2020 8:19:46 AM 3  *January 2020 Business Update* (uploaded)

During the first half of FY 2020 Kogan reported its biggest half of gross sales and gross profit. This was driven by record sales during Black Friday and Boxing Day.

For the six months ending December 31, Kogan’s gross sales grew by more than 16% over the prior corresponding period. Gross profit grew a touch slower and was up more than 9% on the first half of FY 2019.

The latter is a slowdown on its first quarter growth. During the first quarter gross profit was outpacing its gross sales with growth of 28% over the prior corresponding period.






*Can only guess the market was expecting better results!!!





*
590


----------



## Trav. (23 January 2020)

wow I just had a look at the chart here and UGLY !!

I was thinking $5.50 might hold but nope....next support $5. 

One to watch but not for me here.


----------



## sptrawler (23 January 2020)

Trav. said:


> wow I just had a look at the chart here and UGLY !!
> 
> I was thinking $5.50 might hold but nope....next support $5.
> 
> One to watch but not for me here.



That's interesting Trav, when you consider the numbers bigdog posted look pretty good and online shopping is on the rise.
Having said that, online electronics is a crowded space, so one would think there may be casualties.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Trav. (23 January 2020)

bigdog said:


> Can only guess the market was expecting better results!!!




@sptrawler yes you are right the numbers look good to me as well, but as @bigdog said maybe the market wanted more as everyone is buying more online now.


----------



## peter2 (23 January 2020)

There's clearly something in those results that we're not seeing. I can't see it because I'm no FA analyst and it'll be there for those that are.  The reason I can be sure of this, is the price action after the news. Sure, the market may have expected more and sold off a little to take profit. The continued selloff indicates a much bigger problem.


----------



## peter2 (23 January 2020)

KGN was in the P2 Wkly/Dly portfolio. The buy was indicated by the 1st green bar as price looked like breaking above the 7.00 resistance (big green arrow). There was a long wait before a slow rise. The trailing stop was finally above BE, but couldn't protect the trade after price opened well below it. I sold on the next open after the poor news created the huge selloff.  There are times when selling quickly rather than waiting for the EOW can save me money. This seems to be one of them. 






Reporting season is going to produce many more disappointments (CIM, DOW) it's expected, and planned for in medium to longer term trend following systems.


----------



## sptrawler (23 January 2020)

WoW peter, that is an amazing tank, something has to be going on!!


----------



## Saqeeb (23 January 2020)

@Peter, KGN is the second one that has bitten me the way it has after good earnings report. My entry on this one was at $7.2

First one was A2M and I am still in it, just breaking even. Learned very quickly from it though....I cut loose KGN before EOD same day. What a relief that was!!

Learning from members likes yourself, @Skate, etc., on this forum!


----------



## Trav. (8 February 2020)

KGN still heading down.






Who is brave enough to pick the bottom ( catch that knife ), not me but will be looking at $4.50 for some support


----------



## frugal.rock (9 February 2020)

Did someone mention knife catching?

Kogan is on my list of actively watching, just waiting for the clear sign to pounce.
I have expected a turnaround before now, waiting catalyst patiently.
F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Did someone mention knife catching?
> 
> Kogan is on my list of actively watching, just waiting for the clear sign to pounce.
> I have expected a turnaround before now, waiting catalyst patiently.
> F.Rock



I think Kogan, catch, JB, Harfly Normal and ebay australian sellers will have a spike, as buying junk from China will be a real problem, while this virus is around.
Just my opinion.


----------



## So_Cynical (19 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think Kogan, catch, JB, Harfly Normal and ebay australian sellers will have a spike, as buying junk from China will be a real problem, while this virus is around.
> Just my opinion.



Kogan Catch ebay etc etc all source their goods from China anyway, none of them actually manufacture anything....did anyone identify the reason for Kogan's spectacular fall??


----------



## Country Lad (19 February 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> ....did anyone identify the reason for Kogan's spectacular fall??




From SMH interview yesterday:

_Mr Kogan told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald the impacts from the COVID-19 virus were too hard to predict at this stage, saying the company was "monitoring" the situation.
"China is a global manufacturing hub, so no matter what product in any industry or category you're after, chances are the product itself or the components are manufactured in China," he said.
"It's something that could potentially have a huge impact on any product out there."
Word from suppliers was patchy, he said, with some already returning to work but others' factories still closed due to the virus. Sustained closures or delays could see damage done to the company's second-half results, he warned._


----------



## Trav. (22 February 2020)

I am not much of a fundamental guy but the highlights look good here.





Market seemed to like the figures as SP increased ~ 5% since announcement. I do like the prospect of this rising so definitely worth a small position next week.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 May 2020)

*Afterpay and Kogan the new economy's winners*

For investors, the revolutionary power of COVID-19 is permanently reshaping where the big sharemarket winners will come from. Three accelerating structural shifts to remember are
- the rise of the stay-at-home economy,
- digital payment platforms, and
- e-commerce.

 The virus has suddenly brought forward the adoption curve of all three ...

Kogan.com is the market's only diversified online-only retailer that consumers have flocked to as an alternative to physical shopping.

Kogan added 62,000 active new customers in March and 139,000 in April to take its total to 1.95 million. Sales in April doubled on the corresponding period in 2019.

Similar to Amazon, its business model is to offer goods cheaper than rivals while aggressively building market share on ultra-thin profit margins. For first-half 2019-20, it reported a net profit margin of just 2.8 per cent on sales of $322.9 million. As an online-only business, Kogan also enjoys lower costs than traditional retailers with large store rental and staff overheads.

Kogan.com is building out its marketplace business that allows third parties to sell goods on its website. This reduces working capital demands and potentially permits greater profitability down the line.

Kogan shares have more than doubled since March and are up 475 per cent from their $1.80 2016 IPO price.


----------



## greggles (13 May 2020)

Now that's an uptrend!

Looks like Ruslan Kogan is having the last laugh. KGN is one of a handful of stocks that has done very well during the coronavirus crisis. Kogan was right about one thing: the future of retail is online. Bricks and mortar is now mortally wounded. It won't die completely anytime soon of course, but the growth in online retail is going to be huge in the next few years.


----------



## frugal.rock (28 June 2020)

Not letting up. 
Kogan TV for sale. Broken. 
Good for anything other than a TV...


----------



## qldfrog (28 June 2020)

I believe direct result of SPP below $12.dilution.,.
I sold a packet on the market friday and will participate to the same amount....


----------



## freebird54 (17 July 2020)

Anyone here subscribe to Kogan SPP - My broker took the $30000 for maximum allocation and allocation day was 10/7 nothing seen yet - anyone else have a delay
And how much were you scaled back?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 July 2020)

who'd have thought? Just another operator.



> Kogan.com is facing millions of dollars in penalties after the Federal Court found the online retailer misled consumers over tax-time discounts by lifting prices and then ‘‘discounting’’ them, breaching Australian Consumer Law. The court upheld allegations made by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which found Kogan.com misled customers by raising the prices of products immediately before advertising tax-time discounts of at least 10 per cent.



_Kogan.com ran the online promotion from 27 to June 30, 2018, advertising to consumers that they could use the code "TAXTIME" to reduce prices by 10 per cent at the checkout. The promotion was advertised on Kogan’s website, in emails it sent to more than 10 million consumers and in text messages to more than 930,000 consumers.

The Federal Court found that the advertisements conveyed false or misleading representations because Kogan.com had increased prices of more than 600 products by at least 10 per cent *immediately before* the promotion. Kogan also *reduced the prices of these products shortly after* the promotion ended, many back to their pre-promotion prices._


----------



## over9k (17 July 2020)

Not great, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a speed bump.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Not great, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a speed bump.



I don't know. Once one organisation goes after a tall poppy like KGN everyone from the ATO to ASIO hops on board. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (17 July 2020)

freebird54 said:


> Anyone here subscribe to Kogan SPP - My broker took the $30000 for maximum allocation and allocation day was 10/7 nothing seen yet - anyone else have a delay
> And how much were you scaled back?



I asked 7.5k, got around 1k, money remaining was credited back this week by direct credit and shares allocated on my account too ,this week.
am with Bell direct


----------



## over9k (17 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I don't know. Once one organisation goes after a tall poppy like KGN everyone from the ATO to ASIO hops on board.
> 
> gg



Maybe, but their earnings are so huge (and will be even more so over xmas) that I doubt it'll make much of a difference.


----------



## waterbottle (13 August 2020)

Any thoughts on upcoming earnings? Everyone would be expecting a healthy profit but not sure if it will align with the current trading price. 
$25 achievable?


----------



## over9k (13 August 2020)

Did you see the report listed? Earnings are up 160% year on year.


----------



## galumay (13 August 2020)

Its certainly in a COVID bubble, price is way ahead of value, in the current climate its probably got plenty of upside in the short term.


----------



## waterbottle (14 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Did you see the report listed? Earnings are up 160% year on year.




Not sure which report you're referring to?


----------



## over9k (14 October 2020)

Anyone else get on this a while back? 8% run just today.


----------



## Trav. (14 November 2020)

I have been watching KGN with envy since it has had a beautiful run from March Low to October High ~ up over 600%

It seems to have stalled and lost another 14% last week.

How far will it retrace? Previous ATH was $10 (2018)


----------



## over9k (14 November 2020)

Dunno. But the last earnings announcement was 160% up year on year iirc. I'd expect something else equally as mental next time.

I bought at $13, not planning on selling.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 November 2020)

Financial services firm Morningstar says Kogan.com shares are "materially overvalued" because investors are extrapolating the current surge in sales due to online migration during the pandemic too far into the future.

Morningstar's director of equity research, Johannes Faul, valued Kogan.com at $10.50 a share, compared with a current price of $16.96. The shares fell 3 per cent on Monday, taking losses since last month, when the stock reached $25.57, to 33 per cent.







The company was trading on a "markedly high" multiple relative to its peers, though sales and profit growth were expected to slow after growing at more than 100 per cent during the pandemic.


> "Near term we expect customers to return to physical stores as restrictions ease, and higher unemployment to result in lower household discretionary income and consumer sentiment," Mr Faul said. "Longer term we expect Amazon Australia to continue to aggressively take market share and many omni-channel retailers to become increasingly competitive online."


----------



## galumay (23 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Financial services firm Morningstar says Kogan.com shares are "materially overvalued" because investors are extrapolating the current surge in sales due to online migration during the pandemic too far into the future.




Sheesh! You wouldn't want to be paying for insights like that one, would you?! 

Its hardly just Kogan, every business that has had a revenue and earnings spike during covid has been run up in a similar way, even if the source is just JobKeeper payments!!

The return to reality is going to be a harsh reset when it comes.


----------



## sptrawler (23 November 2020)

galumay said:


> Sheesh! You wouldn't want to be paying for insights like that one, would you?!
> 
> Its hardly just Kogan, every business that has had a revenue and earnings spike during covid has been run up in a similar way, even if the source is just JobKeeper payments!!
> 
> The return to reality is going to be a harsh reset when it comes.



I can't see how this space is going to remain buoyant when there are so many competitors, there is only so much computer screen to fit adverts and be on the first page of the search engine.
IMO this could well be an online shopping crash, when the big players get geared up and as you say the jobkeeper payments cease.


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

I think he's only half right.

His premise is correct, but he's forgetting about how much bricks & mortar has been laid waste by the virus & is not going to return. E-tail has absolutely taken the spoils of war here. There's also the fact that electronics etc are constantly going out of date and so are effectively a consumable (albeit one which takes a fair while to consume) unlike things like furniture etc which are typically replaced on a decade+ basis. 

We aren't going back to how things were before.


----------



## galumay (24 November 2020)

over9k said:


> We aren't going back to how things were before.




So, you think things are different this time?!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 November 2020)

this amuses me


> Part of the group's recipe for cheap prices is a relentless focus on data and inventory management in guiding its import of exclusive brands from China. About half of gross profit still comes from house brands such as Kogan, Ovela, Fortis and Komodo, around 90 per cent of which are sourced from Chinese factories.



the article goes on to quote RK







> "_Other than Aldi I can't think of a business in Australia that would do anywhere near that from an *exclusive brands perspective*_," Mr Kogan said. "_The way we manage inventory there [in China] is what makes us such a strong business_."



Mainly undifferentiated cheap stuff out of factories, branded for the customer. The Kogan biz has certain advantages, of being an early mover, having robust IT, but _spin is not a moat._


----------



## over9k (24 November 2020)

galumay said:


> So, you think things are different this time?!



This time? Do you mean compared to the GFC? 

Bricks & mortar etc have been in structural decline for 20 years.


----------



## greggles (24 November 2020)

over9k said:


> This time? Do you mean compared to the GFC?
> 
> Bricks & mortar etc have been in structural decline for 20 years.




This is a classic case of not being able to see the forest for the trees. Most people can't imagine a world without huge shopping centres and bricks and mortar shops everywhere because that's the way it's always been. Well, at least since we started building shopping centres.

But things are changing, and they won't be going back to the way things were. The shift to online is still in its infancy but it cannot be stopped and it will accelerate from here.

The last place I would want to be now is in commercial real estate and stocks like Scentre Group that own and manage shopping centres. The inevitable massacre is coming and it will be brutal. We will start seeing ghost malls in Australia like they have in the USA.

Yes, foot traffic will return to shopping centres in the short term but the long term structural shift to online has begun and it cannot be turned back.


----------



## over9k (24 November 2020)

It began 20 years ago. It's just been accelerated tenfold this year. 5 years of change in 5 months kind of thing. We're living in the future. 

The one that's been in its infancy until now has been remote working. Again, coronavirus has put us 5+ years ahead of trend there too. That also won't be going back to where it was. 


There's also been a huge demand drop for inner city apartments, flats, houses etc as a result. Shoebox sized apartments are, as we all know, awful, and the only reason you'd live in one would be to save yourself the work commute.

Remove that commute and you remove the necessity to live in the city. 

The only hope commercial real estate has is to convert to residential - but even then, they're going to be inner city apartments etc that nobody actually *wants* to live in. 

In short, commercial real estate "investors" are _f***ed. _


----------



## greggles (24 November 2020)

over9k said:


> The only hope commercial real estate has is to convert to residential - but even then, they're going to be inner city apartments etc that nobody actually *wants* to live in.
> 
> In short, commercial real estate "investors" are _f***ed. _




I imagine there will be an increased demand for warehouse space but watch for this to happen close to Australia Post distribution centres so product can be shipped faster and easier.

Warehousing, logistics, shipping related services - these will be growth areas as online continues to gobble up retail market share.


----------



## bk1 (24 November 2020)

With Black Friday and Cyber Monday coming up we will see who is right. I would have thought they would be watched closely when gauging company performance of online retailers.


----------



## galumay (24 November 2020)

I think people will be amazed to discover how little things actually change and how quickly life goes back to normal post Covid. The death of B&M retail has been sounded for years, its still strong in many areas of retail and always will be. There are opportunities for some to use omni channels to take advantage of all means of distribution but at the end of the day the businesses like Kogan have seen a huge distortion from Covid and things like JobKeeper. 

People valuing their long term cash flows based on a few months of covid distortion are in for a nasty shock IMO. 

The opportunity was when Kogan was $4.50 in March, but it still didn't look cheap enough to me so I held off! Thats one I got very wrong, I misunderstood the impact of Covid, JK, JS etc and how bewitched the market would be by very short term performance.


----------



## frugal.rock (24 November 2020)

Working from home isn't all its cut out to be, on both sides of the coin.

Let's have some women's opinions about shopping centres, eh?!
Yes, there's no doubt bricks and mortar are in a slow decline, and internet shopping becoming more popular, that doesn't mean bricks and mortar is dead in the future.

The social aspect seems to be forgotten.
 "Meet you at the mall."?

We all have our opinions. 
Just like nostalgia bringing over $100k for some 50+ year old holdens and fords.... Did you think about that 25+ years ago when you could snap em up at the bottom dollar 5k range....

As for Ruslan?
Buy before Friday, sell on the overly good news about sales results....or are the results already priced in....?


----------



## over9k (24 November 2020)

I wouldn't say dead quite yet - more moribund. 

The trend over the past 20 years is more than clear and it hadn't even flatlined (so indicated a bottoming out) before. I can see it just reaching a point of X% of what it used to be and just staying there - but we didn't hit it before coronavirus, so the drop has more to go yet.


----------



## sptrawler (24 November 2020)

I agree with everyone on this, the malls as we know them are probably done, small boutique shops selling junk that is easily attained online is finished, but a lot will depend on how nimble the mall owners are at repurposing the space IMO.
The shops that survive will get bigger and the unused vacant space will have to be repurposed for entertainment, eating and child minding.

Because we don't have the population density, I can't see the malls becoming like Singapore's 'Lucky Plaza' or similar, but I think they will have to become more along the lines of community recreation facilities which includes shopping.
If not, well they will make new housing estates.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 November 2020)

bk1 said:


> With Black Friday and Cyber Monday coming up we will see who is right. I would have thought they would be watched closely when gauging company performance of online retailers.



Tepid Tuesday and Woeful Wednesday also approach.


----------



## UnicornHunter_8570 (16 February 2021)

KGN, falling under 12, who is with me?


----------



## greggles (16 February 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> KGN, falling under 12, who is with me?




That's a big call. It's currently trading at $16.65. What makes you think it's more than 35% overvalued?


----------



## over9k (16 February 2021)

I just sold, so expect it to bounce now.


----------



## UnicornHunter_8570 (26 February 2021)

greggles said:


> That's a big call. It's currently trading at $16.65. What makes you think it's more than 35% overvalued?



first of all price doesn't necessarily equal value. value is like a meme :> something we will neve touch haha. long story short, growth is slowing down, concerning signal the growth is due to COVID surge not organic. Gross profit is on a rise, but at a negative accelerator -11.43%, same story with gross margin -104.21%, EBITDA -61.5%, NPAT -68.51%. Don't forget profit taker, I guess big fish is out there in a million dollar mansion sunbathing sipping Lafite 82, and goes like " it is time to sell some KGN...…"


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 April 2021)

Shares in e-commerce firm Kogan.com were crunched on Friday as it   joined the growing number of companies reporting weak or weakening sales  and earnings figures for the March quarter.

Friday saw Kogan join the queue and the shares fell more than 11% in  the first hour of trading to $11.10. The shares touched an 11-month low  of $11.02 in trading. Kogan was one of the big winners from the surge in online sales  during 2020’s lockdowns during the pandemic but now its boost is running  out of puff.

 Customer demand during the March quarter slowed, expenses rose and despite a rise in gross profit, adjusted earnings fell 24%.

 Kogan said it had been increasing its promotional activity to improve its inventory position (ie to clear unsold stock).


----------



## UnicornHunter_8570 (21 May 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> KGN, falling under 12, who is with me?



Now we are talking...... hope you guys success dodging this one...


----------



## greggles (21 May 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> Now we are talking...... hope you guys success dodging this one...




Good call. What do you see as fair value for Kogan? Is it still overvalued in your eyes?


----------



## UnicornHunter_8570 (21 May 2021)

greggles said:


> Good call. What do you see as fair value for Kogan? Is it still overvalued in your eyes?



KGN just issued May business update, doesnt look good. I wont touch it for another six months.


----------



## UnicornHunter_8570 (21 May 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> KGN just issued May business update, doesnt look good. I wont touch it for another six months.



 I will be looking at 5.5-6.8 for a good buy.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 May 2021)

Online retailer Kogan.com has slashed its outlook pointing to its rapid growth during the past year which resulted in

*supply chain issues,

 miscalculation of inventory,

 higher warehousing costs.*


----------



## Miner (21 May 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> I will be looking at 5.5-6.8 for a good buy.



Just to have an adder with your expectation, @UnicornHunter_8570  could you please advise if you see the price could potentially reach $5.5 as you have given a big range and what will you do should the price come to its lowest point of $7 and go up?

Not long ago (subscribted this thread today only so have not followed the postings past - apology for referring back dated ones)- Feb 21, you asked who was joining you at $12  







No issue but definitely  curious as KGN is trading after today's fall at its lowest price in 12 months and reading the trading statement, probably many more surprise to come with a ' dynamic' word included in a business update today bringing the price lowered by 14.29 pc.
Interestingly you and few others always raised concern on KGN and its would be lack of perormance - excepting only one- the big marketeer Motley Fool . 



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02376765-3A567482?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


On the same subject but different reference point, I am thinking of this fundie who increased holding and the price dived down significantly.  How good their research is?


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02376329-3A567404?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## Miner (24 May 2021)

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - business update

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - increased holding
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - increased holding after selling off earlier

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 - reduced holding
today's trading after 4 PM, shows some interesting volume other than 14 % price increase after a similar reduction yesterday following business update published on Friday 21st May. 
Is some one manipulating the market ? 






$147 million transaction


----------



## Greynomad99 (22 August 2021)

KGN's price has risen back towards what was an earlier target of $13.50 it hit in July. Should it break and close confidently above that level there would be a probable target ahead of $17.00. However, $13.50 is a strong level of resistance which could turn price down again and a buy prior to a break would be high risk.


----------



## divs4ever (22 August 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> Now we are talking...... hope you guys success dodging this one...





UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> KGN, falling under 12, who is with me?



 no thanks 

 i bought in around  $5.64 in January 2020


----------



## qldfrog (24 August 2021)

um did not like the results gave back all gains it had since buying via system...


----------



## divs4ever (24 August 2021)

still nowhere cheap enough for me to add more 

 good luck if you are buying the drop though  , who knows how long these lockdowns will last


----------



## Greynomad99 (24 August 2021)

As my post before said - high risk to buy before a confident break above $13.50.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 September 2021)

UnicornHunter_8570 said:


> KGN, falling under 12, who is with me?




*Matthew Kidman (Livewire Markets)  :* _Chris, we are all at home, we’re all buying electronics, fridges, lounges, whatever you want, and you can definitely get all that stuff at Kogan. But it’s been out of favour, too much inventory recently. Buy, hold or sell?_

*Chris Stott (1851 Capital ) :* _Sell again. We think they’ve still got inventory issues that will remain for a little while longer, perhaps longer than what people are expecting. They’re cycling higher comps, benefiting at the moment from being locked down, but as soon as the economy reopens, their comps should normalise back down. *So sell*_*.

Matthew Kidman (Livewire Markets ) *: _James, this stock has virtually halved. It was a market darling, and it’s halved – and it’s still falling, even after the result. Buy, hold or sell?_

*James Gerrish (Market Matters ) : *_I think it’s a buy, Matt, at around $11. Obviously, they stuffed up in FY21. There’s no doubt about it. They got too bullish on the demand for their products. And when you have a heap of inventory, it’s hard to store it, it costs money, and they’ve obviously had to try and move it through sales. So, I think that’s a lesson for them. And I think going out into ’22, that aggressive stance towards growth will eventually pay dividends. *So, it’s a buy at these levels, *at around $11._


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

wake me up at $6  ( i bought @ $5.62 in January 2020 )

 cheers !


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 October 2021)

Kogan told the market on Wednesday in its latest update that it had overcome its overstocked issues from the closing months of the 2020-21 financial year after it had overestimated demand and stocked up on too many TVs, phones and other consumer products.

The overstocked position saw a sharp selloff in the already weak share price as investors wondered if Kogan had fallen victim to its success and hype as an e-tailer.

Kogan said on Wednesday it had resolved its previous inventory pressures, closing a number of “inefficient” overflow warehouses, cutting down on its inventory levels and warehousing costs.

Kogan said the size of its inventories (in warehouses and in transit) are down by around $30 million to $194 million at the end of the quarter from $228 million at the end of June. Gross sales rose 21% to $330 million but the gross profit fell 1.7% to $52.5 million which was up 31% from the June quarter. The number of active customers jumped to 3.35 million, a rise of nearly 31%



> “_When it comes to delighting our customers, we set a very high standard for ourselves, and I am proud of the way the Kogan team has continued to deliver on our mission of making the most in-demand products and services more affordable and accessible_,” CEO Ruslan Kogan said effusively in the update.





> “_While overcoming many challenges, the Kogan team has continued to deliver strong growth while investing in the future of the business and incubating new ways to deliver more value to our customers over the long term_.”




.... _hype being the operative word_

(DNH)


----------



## dyna (29 October 2021)

Article in this week's AFR  quoting a gun short seller hinting at an on-line retailer in his sights.
This must surely be it.
Flight Centre is the number one shorted stock on the market, at the moment ( 12 % shorted ) . Kogan.com is not too far behind in 6 th spot with just under 9 % of its shares out on loan to the horror- heads.


----------



## frugal.rock (25 February 2022)

I'm looking at the 3 year chart, today's drop, results, which look ok to a muppett like me...

So I'm wondering, what gives?
Is Ruslan being sanctioned for being born in Belarus? 🧐

Any thoughts on results?


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

for  a starter  , no div. being paid this half 

 that being said  i added more today  slightly below $5  , time proved i could have got a better discount this morning


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

ANOTHER potential factor is KGN MIGHT be close to being booted  from the major indexes ( XJO , or XKO , obliging some ETFs and LICs to sell )

 please take care


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 April 2022)

> “_Over the coming year, the company will be recalibrating its organisational costs in line with current growth levels to support a return to the historical operating margins previously generated_,” Mr Kogan said.



what that means is; "We're carrying too much stock, and sales are slipping."

_The number of active customers across the entire business was up 3.6 per cent to 4.1 million customers in the March quarter compared with a year ago._
_Gross profit fell 11 per cent to $41 million, and_
_Gross sales were 3.8 per cent lower at $262 million._
_Adjusted EBITDA; the overall business made a loss of $800,000 in the March quarter. The Kogan.com e-commerce unit made a loss of $3.5 million at an adjusted EBITDA level, but this was partially offset by the Mighty Ape business in New Zealand which made a profit of $2.8 million._
Now $4, was $25 once upon a time.


----------



## divs4ever (29 April 2022)

yes am considering IF i should add more ( say in the $3.90-$3.95 range )

 i expect this to struggle a little ( or a LOT ) more  .. BUT has formerly been volatile enough  to wonder  if a cash rescue trade ( 'free-carry ' ) is possible as well

 will rising costs  be an ally to KGN ( as many rivals have large infrastructure )

 DYOR

 i won't quite call KGN a 'safe-haven ' play  more a contrarian play ( in a troubled retail world currently ) ( a not that  dirty shirt in the dumpster  .. still a train-wreck if naked becomes the fashion )


----------



## divs4ever (29 April 2022)

PS .. KGN valuations  still look rather high  , you would have to consider IF this is still a growth stock 

 DYOR


----------



## waterbottle (29 April 2022)

KGN seems to have joined the trend that many of the US tech stocks have already been in.... 

Are they still planning to pay a dividend?


----------



## divs4ever (29 April 2022)

i didn't see a mention of that 

 NORMALLY you would think   NOT ( this year )   any extra cash being devoted to expansion , streamlining the business  , etc etc 

 but two directors  also hold more than 1 million shares each  , would they be content to just survive on their salary this year


----------



## divs4ever (10 June 2022)

Kogan.com amends Debt Facility
Reduces facility limit to $55.0 million
Kogan.com Limited (Kogan.com; the Company, ASX:KGN) today announces that it has
amended its multi-option facility agreement with Westpac Banking Corporation (Debt
Facility), with no change to the existing term of three years to 31 January 2024. The
amendment sees a reduction in the facility limit to $55.0 million (including an associated
reduction in line fees) with the next covenant testing to be 31 December 2022.
Other than the amendments noted above, the material terms of the Debt Facility remain as
detailed in the Prospectus dated 24 June 2016 and as further described in Kogan.com’s
subsequent announcements to the ASX on prior renewals and amendments of the Debt1
Facility.
The Company anticipates having no net debt (drawn bank debt plus total cash) at financial
year end.
Authorised for release by the Board of Kogan.com Limited.

i hold KGN ( and a trivial amount of WBC )


----------



## divs4ever (28 July 2022)

Kogan.com Business Update
Kogan.com Limited (the Company; the Business Kogan.com; ASX: KGN) is pleased to announce
another year of record Gross Sales and the return to positive quarterly Adjusted EBITDA in 4QFY22
1
following successful ongoing recalibration of operating costs.
Founder and CEO of Kogan.com, Ruslan Kogan, said:
"Times are changing. In uncertain times, people don't want to alter their lifestyle but they
are happy to shift the way they shop. We know that in an environment where great value
becomes even more important, Kogan.com serves an important need.
"Our Business was built for this. Efficiency and speed has been at the core of how the
Kogan.com team operates for 16 years now. We're honoured that there are millions of
Active Customers in the Group that have seen the value we provide. When the Australian
public was asked to vote for their favourite online retailer, Kogan.com was voted the
Australia Post ORIAS People's Choice Retailer of the Year for the sixth year in a row. This is
perfect validation of the value we create for the people that matter most - our customers.
"We're not resting on our laurels though. We are making the Business leaner to enable us
to pass on cost efficiencies to customers in the form of lower prices. A leaner company
means we discontinue parts of the Business that are not delivering value to customers or
shareholders, and also gives us the flexibility to respond to significant ongoing changes in
the macro environment."
The Company provides the following update which, where applicable, is based on unaudited
management accounts as at 30 June 2022. The update compares the FY22 results to FY21 and also
2
FY20:
● Gross Sales grew by 0.1% above FY21, and a CAGR of more than 23% since FY20
3
● Gross Profit declined by 9.4% below FY21, however a CAGR of more than 20% since FY20
● Adjusted EBITDA was $19.1m for FY22
● Group Active Customers
4 grew to 3,972,000, with Kogan.com Active Customer CAGR of 21%
since FY20

● Kogan First members have grown by 210% since FY21 to over 372,000
● As at 30 June 2022 the Company increased the net cash position (total cash less drawn debt) to
$31.2m, from $12.8m at the end of FY21
● Total inventories were $161.1m, with $139.2m in warehouse and $21.9m in transit. This reflects a
significant unwinding of inventories from total inventories of $227.9m at the end of FY21


===============================================================================

DYOR

i hold KGN

am not sure how the market will take this , but if it dips enough , i will nibble some more


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 August 2022)

one comment from a fund manager looking for opportunities to short a stock, and


> ... looks for instances of executives having audit committee duties, which he deems to be a weak link in the chain of governance. Kogan, according to him, navigates similar territory where the CEO has attended every single audit meeting.
> "_This is hardly the model of good governance,_” he said.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 August 2022)

revenue down 8%
adjusted net profit 2021 was $42 million, net loss 2022 at $2.9 million
no final dividend
The future of online shopping is undiminished.


> _“The opportunities for us are endless_,” Ruslan Kogan declared.







_"Climb every mountain
Ford every stream
Follow every mountain
Don't you ever give up, no ohh
Climb every mountain
There's a brighter day on the other side
Follow every rainbow
'Till you find your dream."_


----------



## divs4ever (23 August 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> one comment from a fund manager looking for opportunities to short a stock, and



 having worked in several warehouses/distribution centres  , the learning curve can be surprising   , especially for a rapidly expanding business  ( with new products coming in irregularly )  , one place specialized in electronic components and tapes ( video, audio and data )

 so the fund manager could easily be fair ( in the criticism ) but opportunistic 

 i will certainly CONSIDERING adding more KGN  if it goes under $3 

 but KGN MIGHT have to bring in some extra EXPERIENCED staff  to cope ( increasing costs )


----------



## divs4ever (23 August 2022)

_  ** “The opportunities for us are endless_,” Ruslan Kogan declared.  **

 a BIG difference between opportunities and deliveries  , chances are management will have to acquire skills in logistics  ( which is NOT impossible if willing to learn  , relying on out-sourcing  can be a total disaster )


----------

