# AWC - Alumina Limited



## 3 veiws of a secret (11 October 2006)

I just bought into AWC ......does anybody have Alumina in their portfolios? Bought totally on spec.


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## 36590 (19 October 2006)

Looking at AWC and KZL at the moment. I already have TZN so I have Zinc so I have put a order for AWC today.   

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - Target $9.05 and
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - Target $9.00 
(Broker News).

Is this similar to what you have heard? Post on AWC are very far between.

36590.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (19 October 2006)

36590.....wish I could tell you words of wisdom regarding this share -unfortunetly I only held it for less then a day and sold on interesting takings .In fact Westpac seems to rate this share......G'luck


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## imaginator (2 November 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> I just bought into AWC ......does anybody have Alumina in their portfolios? Bought totally on spec.




How muich did u buy AWC?
How's the spec looking?


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## Uncle Festivus (30 July 2007)

This one is very quite in here. Very loose observation of technical support at these levels now. In a normal market it would be tempting to go long?


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## 56gsa (30 July 2007)

Uncle F - love the 10 year weekly on this - really respects the various support/resistance levels - today its headed to the 710 level - will be interesting to see if this provides support although I think in the ST outlook for alumina is not good and the potential for takeover has been quashed - so could drop further - next levels 675 / 625


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## imaginator (11 October 2007)

What's going on with Alumina? Its broken the uptrend for no apparent reason.

Yesterday was a green day and it went down. TOday red day it went down a bit too. $&@)(&%()@$*()@%$


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## nikkothescorpio (11 October 2007)

Yes, I agree I6can't see why all of a sudden SWC is copping so much stick.

Al metal are good....good analysts reports out for what they're worth).....could it have to do with Alcoa's troubles?

Seems a long draw of the bow to link the two???

Thats the best guess I had.


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## TheAnalyst (31 October 2007)

I am watching the stock as well and have bought in, knowing that as China's has price pressure increases on producing aluminum, and that its smeltering uses 3 and a half times the amount of power to produce aluminum from bauxite, as what it takes Alumina to do with their plants.


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## tronic72 (15 January 2008)

Anyone have this on their watch list. I recently bought in as current Aluminium prices are too cheap and unsustainable. 

The current price is at the same level of resistance the company has hit three times over the last year

Anyone else have any thoughts.


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## hangseng (15 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Anyone have this on their watch list. I recently bought in as current Aluminium prices are too cheap and unsustainable.
> 
> The current price is at the same level of resistance the company has hit three times over the last year
> 
> Anyone else have any thoughts.




I really like AWC but the wall of selling is continuing so I am sitting out in waiting.

If it holds at this support level then I am back in.


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## Gspot (15 January 2008)

I'm waiting for the sp to steady before getting some too, following closely. Aluminium for 2008.
 Does anyone know when the Chinese can start importing, rather than producing their own at 3 times the cost?


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## tronic72 (15 January 2008)

Chinese spot alumina prices rise on demands
Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:31am EST 

SHANGHAI, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Alumina refineries in China, excluding the national champion Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) (2600.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), have hiked the spot alumina prices by seven percent partly due to rising demand before holidays, trade sources said on Monday.

Non-Chalco refineries have been offering prices at around 4,500 yuan ($620.4) a tonne starting from last Friday, compared with 4,200 yuan a tonne early last week, they said.

The price hike came one day after India's state-run NALCO (NALU.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) sold 25,000 tonnes of alumina for $432.32 per tonne free on board. NALCO's alumina sales usually serve as a price benchmark internationally.

"Rising purchases ahead of China's Lunar New Year pushed up the alumina prices, and higher overseas prices also helped," a Shanghai-based alumina trader said. The Lunar New Year falls in early February.

Chalco (601600.SS: Quote, Profile, Research) raised its spot alumina price by 10.5 percent in mid-December after Chinese alumina prices rose 10 percent in the month. The company was offering spot alumina at 4,200 yuan a tonne currently. ($1=7.253 Yuan) (Reporting by Alfred Cang; editing by Michael Roddy


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## imaginator (17 January 2008)

ALumina seems to have gone past the low support line.

Anyone going to grab some?

I think when the FED cut the interest rate end of this month, it may make the market rally again?

Anyway, AWC has been disappointing in the last rally. It went up high right after the August downturn, but then it started a downtrend.


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## tronic72 (17 January 2008)

Bought CFDs at 569 today. I had a buy at 568 for half an hour and couldn't get the stock. My thinking is there aren't many who want to part with the stock at the current price. 

I've recently lost money on AWC but I think the fundamentals are still good and the Aluminium price is currently too cheap. The price is also quite a bit less than when I bought in a week ago so I might make some of my losses back.


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## imaginator (22 January 2008)

Alright, just one summary, this stock stinks. Anytime the ASX or DOW goes down a little, AWC jumps down a flight of stairs! Son of a,, it was 7.23 few months ago, today only 4.80 and it can't even hold that level, lowest it went now 4.70.


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## aacantona (1 September 2008)

Anybody know a bit about this stock? Fundamentals/SP?? Has been falling for some time and while the outlook doesn't look that great, doesn't seem as bad as what the SP would have.


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## dan-o (16 October 2008)

This stock is now yielding 12% at $2 if the dividend holds...

Copping a huge pastnig the past days...

Anyone like it?


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## Out Too Soon (12 January 2009)

dan-o said:


> This stock is now yielding 12% at $2 if the dividend holds...
> 
> Copping a huge pastnig the past days...
> 
> Anyone like it?




I like it! Bought @ 1.53 today on a small dip in an up trend. Yeilds even better at this price. dividend soon.
Ouch- just went to inc a chart & my Incredible charts crashed- very unusual, will inc a chart soon.


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## billie (12 February 2009)

I also bought this not too long ago hoping for an OK dividend. Now that there won't be a dividend, and S&P has downgraded their credit rating, I sold at a small profit. But the share price is rising! Must be something going on that I don't know about - possible takeover?? Anyone have any thoughts?


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## haggis (3 June 2009)

been keeping an eye on this one for a couple of monthsHas started to move on low global inventories, and possible higher Japan rates for Alumina.
Awc has good infrastructure and supply in west aus, and has recently upgraded some infrastructure, that will increase volume and lower  maintenance down time.
Still a long way back from highs, but should come good long term.( 6- 12 mths)
PS first post-- would appreciate feed back on whether this is enough info, or do i need to add more?


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## johannlo (4 June 2009)

Me too (keeping an eye on it that is) I'm targeting it as my next big player resources purchase, been into all the juniors and explorers so far. Waiting for the right time but I need to cash something in to free up the $$$ and at this juncture I'm not confident enough to make my sideways move (i.e. this at bottom of the short term cycle, my selling at the top). Learning, learning


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## mr_delta (9 November 2009)

Hi Guys,

Bought Alumina last month at an average of around $1.70.

Fundamentally looks good with a good quarterly issued but technically not so sure. Any chartist out there who can throw some light on thistechnically?

Thanks in advance...

Mr_Delta


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## El Toro (9 November 2010)

I notice that Charlie Aitken from Under the Southren Cross has been doing some favourable write ups on AWC lately.


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## El Toro (18 November 2010)

Does anyone on here get the "Under the Southern Cross" daily newsletter?

What are the other daily newsletters do you use?


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## wilto (7 October 2012)

I bought AWC last mth @ .73c. The price is on the move in the right direction. Being new to share trading and this my 1st trade in shares, I'm wondering whats the long term forecast for aluminium. Cheers!
This sheds a bit of light on things. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/idUSWLA243920120829?feedType=RSS&feedName=bondsNews&rpc=43


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## burglar (7 October 2012)

Nice upturn, if you hold some!

Disclosure: I do not hold


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## wilto (7 October 2012)

Starting to get the hang of this chart thing. Looks like they are trending with aord,axjo, and the dow. Something to compare to any way.


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## Ann (27 May 2013)

Just a chart with a rather bearish outlook for the short term of AWC. Sorry CanOz, I see no flag waving on a flagpole, simply a thwarted bid for freedom through the short term overhead. It may break back up! Let's see!


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## CanOz (27 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Just a chart with a rather bearish outlook for the short term of AWC. Sorry CanOz, I see no flag waving on a flagpole, simply a thwarted bid for freedom through the short term overhead. It may break back up! Let's see!




lol....no worries Ann, no skin in the game for me on this....just came across it while eyeballing some stocks.

CanOz


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## Country Lad (27 May 2013)

CanOz said:


> ........just a wee flag...




Could very well be a wee one.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Valued (14 January 2014)

Interesting price action last two days. looks like a breakout supported by volume. It looks like the stock was being accumulated to me but I could be wrong. It seems to have broken out on decent volume and continued upwards. Last breakout ended up in a v shape though so we will see how this one goes. 

I have entered a long position on AWC as of today. I wouldn't take up a position near the reporting date though. They might lose more money. This was a purely technical decision. The company itself looks kind of rubbish. I don't even understand what it is they do, but they are good at earning low returns on equity.


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## notting (14 January 2014)

Some fat boys came in around the 1.22 and dropped on a few loaded bases trying to push the thing up.
They didn't sit and wait to be taken out.
Just depends on how deep their pockets are, clearly they don't want to hold.


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## Valued (14 January 2014)

PPT was buying in the trading range.  They will probably want to push it up. It will be clear if they start selling.


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## Valued (16 January 2014)

There was super strong resistance yesterday. When we were heading on close 1 million share orders were coming in to sell. The buying was only just stronger than the selling. The move up was quite narrow. This is not a good sign generally. They have disappeared this morning. The price is moving up with low volume trades. It looks to me that retail traders are just pushing the price up. Shhh no one tell them the price of Aluminium was down yesterday or they will panic sell


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## pavilion103 (20 February 2014)

I like this one at 1.35.
If it breaks it could be good.
I have a pending order.


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## pavilion103 (24 February 2014)

Still consolidating.
Will be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks I reckon.


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## galumay (24 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Still consolidating.
> Will be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks I reckon.




A dangerous play i reckon, RIO have closed the Gove Refinery, and its very much on the cards that Yarwun in Gladstone will be shut down too, Alcoa have announced Point Henry Smelter to shut down and the Kwinana Refinery is earmarked to close as well.

Thats a lot of bad news for AWC to absorb! 

The real problem is that there is no real money in Alumina - well not the sort of money the big miners want, RIO only want what they call 'Tier 1' businesses, round 70% ROI, copper and iron are at this end of the market, various other minerals fall in the 'Tier 2' category - 40-70% ROI and poor old alumina has never been above about 20% even in its best years. 

Australia is moving towards just being a bauxite exporter, mining is cheap, the RIO's & BHP do shovel to ship well but their structural incompetence makes it difficult for them to refine efficiently, so other companies overseas will end up with the refineries and smelters. Energy costs do play a part in that story here, but its greatly overstated.


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## pavilion103 (24 February 2014)

I'm not looking to get in for medium/long term on fundamental analysis.

I'm purely a technical trader who trades momentum.

I enjoy the thoughts of longer term traders, whose approaches are obviously different.


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## galumay (24 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm not looking to get in for medium/long term on fundamental analysis.
> 
> I'm purely a technical trader who trades momentum.
> 
> I enjoy the thoughts of longer term traders, whose approaches are obviously different.




Hey Pav, I did note you were approaching it from a TA/trading point of view, and I appreciate you are not looking at AWC as a long term investment, I just thought the storm clouds are building and it may be set for a strong downturn which might limit opportunities for profitable trading!


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## pavilion103 (24 February 2014)

Love hearing your thoughts.

One of the reasons I post in these stock threads is because I can pick up a fundamental perspective (whether or not it influences me I'm not sure).


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## galumay (24 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Love hearing your thoughts.
> 
> One of the reasons I post in these stock threads is because I can pick up a fundamental perspective (whether or not it influences me I'm not sure).




vice versa, no better way to test ones ideas and assumptions than to explain them to someone who has a different world view! Also not sure how much it influences me, but I hope it at least _informs_ me.

Of course the other thing is that two TA's or two FA's will often come to a different conclusion with the same information - I am sure some will see the problems with all the other players in the industry as a potential strength for AWC!


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## sptrawler (30 July 2015)

Aluminium inventories are low, smelters closing, wondering if it may be time to have a flutter on Alumina?
Alcoa's profits rising and demand in the auto sector is up 200% in the last 12 months.

What the heck, I've jumped in $1.47.  lol


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## notting (30 July 2015)

Did beautifully from July 2012 up to the start of this year then just lost it's mojo, for no obvious reason.
Although apparantly German car sales have gone south in China over the last quarter or so.
This is one indicator we can trust, cause it's recorded by Germans not filthy lying Chinese.
So China is week despite its stock market running up over that six month period, government was trying to fudge the weakness by ramping the share market in local media.
I bought a little AWC today although it needs to get through 1.50 with conviction to be looking like making another run.


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## sptrawler (30 July 2015)

Well they usually go ex dividend mid August, so hopefully there will be a little joy there. But I can't see demand for aluminium in the car industry reducing.
Especially if electric vehicle popularity increases, minimal weight is paramount for battery powered vehicles. Anyway just a small speculative flutter in the super, have to get income from somewhere.


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## joeno (31 July 2015)

The financials look weak for Alumina. Not sure why anyone would buy in at the moment. I'll wait until it goes down to $1.2 before i'd even think about it


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## notting (31 July 2015)

joeno said:


> The financials look weak for Alumina. Not sure why anyone would buy in at the moment. I'll wait until it goes down to $1.2 before i'd even think about it




Technically it has some support around this area.


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## sptrawler (19 August 2015)

Well big profit jump, and a fully franked dividend U.S 4.5c.
 Shame I didn't hold off a couple of weeks before jumping in, still IMO the fundamentals for aluminium and AWC haven't changed. 
My guess is still strong growth over the next 12 - 18 months, on the back of strong demand for aluminium.

http://www.fool.com.au/2015/08/19/alumina-limited-swings-to-a-big-profit-is-it-a-buy/


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## Porper (19 August 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Well big profit jump, and a fully franked dividend U.S 4.5c.
> Shame I didn't hold off a couple of weeks before jumping in, still IMO the fundamentals for aluminium and AWC haven't changed.
> My guess is still strong growth over the next 12 - 18 months, on the back of strong demand for aluminium.
> 
> http://www.fool.com.au/2015/08/19/alumina-limited-swings-to-a-big-profit-is-it-a-buy/




I have been tempted to jump on but the bottom line is that alumina prices are struggling with the Chinese holding all the cards.

Price has hit the 50% - 61.8% zone but too quickly compared to the prior leg higher. More likely that a larger consolidation pattern is underway...maybe a Triangle or flat pattern. Both offer higher prices but not liking today's selling into better than anticipated results. Weak close. Also now sitting beneath resistance.


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## sptrawler (19 August 2015)

Good points Porper, lucky it isn't a precise science. 

I'm not a trader though, so I'm more looking for something that will give a dividend and possible medium term price growth. The problem with SMSF's IMO, you have to try and stay in front of your drawdown. 
So medium term dividend or flip for cg, and long term sit and hold, always play a part in my portfolio. 
I don't have the skill or knowledge to play the trading game.


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## sptrawler (22 September 2015)

Picked another parcel at $1.16, while on holidays, don't you hate coming home to a spec turning up.


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## Wyatt (20 March 2017)

AWC is a stock with both medium and longer term momentum, current chart may be topping or just having a breather. Aluminium/Alumina demand seems to be growing along with prices and supply looks to be tighter than it has been for quite a while, although some input costs are also rising. There is a reasonable divvy in there for good measure and operations are tier 1, apparently.
Price action on 2/3/17 was bullish, but lacklustre since. Anyone else interested atm?
Oh Yeah i think i read there is a truckload of franking credits as well


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## Boggo (20 March 2017)

Wyatt said:


> ... Anyone else interested atm?




Got some in my SMSF, giving it room to move at the moment.

Weekly chart


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## Cam019 (21 March 2017)

Wyatt said:


> Price action on 2/3/17 was bullish, but lacklustre since. Anyone else interested atm?




AWC currently in a trading range. 02/03/17 saw a gap up bar, but floating supply entered the market and as a result the price was unable to push through the previous resistance at $2.04. There is also resistance at $2.10 which can be seen on Boggos weekly chart. The bar on the 13/01/2017 caught my interest. We have an extremely high volume down bar with a narrow spread closing on the low. I find it interesting that I previously would have thought that this was bearish sign but take a look 8 days later, a gap up on increased volume closing on the high. When I look at the down bar, I now see a bullish signal. I see supply being bought up by demand due to the bars narrow spread. If there was no demand and that kind of volume, we would have seen a huge wide spread down bar. There must be a significant amount of buyers buying up the supply entering the market.

I personally wouldn't be trading AWC until I saw a breakout and a close above $2.10.

Daily chart:


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## Boggo (18 June 2017)

Boggo said:


> Got some in my SMSF, giving it room to move at the moment




Follow up from post #53 above.
AWC came down and turned at W4 close to my stop at $1.64 and then turned up but not as far as I would have liked. I expected it to break through $2 and into the Min W5 area but it hit that resistance and is on its on the way down again.

Lets see what happens from here, back up I hope !


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## sptrawler (25 June 2017)

I held AWC until the dispute with Alcoa, then off loaded them, as their dividend may suffer.
I'm still not convinced their dividend is sustainable, I'm tending to think that S32, may be a better bet.
Reason being S32 is more diverse and as far as I know, hasn't exported raw bauxite yet.

I do hold S32.


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## Boggo (26 June 2017)

sptrawler said:


> I held AWC until the dispute with Alcoa, then off loaded them, as their dividend may suffer.
> I'm still not convinced their dividend is sustainable, I'm tending to think that S32, may be a better bet.
> Reason being S32 is more diverse and as far as I know, hasn't exported raw bauxite yet.
> 
> I do hold S32.




I hold AWC in my SMSF based on my weekly system. I did have S32 in a watchlist for a while but it ran out of time for a response, the system will pick it up again if it turns up.
Will keep an eye on the dividend prospect on AWC sptrawler, that could change market sentiment.

As an aside exercise I am tracking about a dozen stocks behaviour with EW (yeah, I know). I am currently looking at the current position on AWC being in a Wave.5. The Wave.4 turnaround was just above my Amibroker weekly trailing stop (now at 1.65).

Based on the current exercise I am expecting it to get close to $2.30 in a few months.

Chart of EW dynamics (click to enlarge).


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## sptrawler (26 June 2017)

I will keep an eye on your chart, I've got to increase my exposure to aluminium, LME levels are getting down to historic lows.
IMO the price of aluminium could really take off, demand is ever increasing and supply seems to be dwindling, due to the cost of electricity. It should end up in a huge shortfall.


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## Boggo (24 August 2017)

sptrawler said:


> I will keep an eye on your chart, I've got to increase my exposure to aluminium, LME levels are getting down to historic lows.
> IMO the price of aluminium could really take off, demand is ever increasing and supply seems to be dwindling, due to the cost of electricity. It should end up in a huge shortfall.




Still going in the right direction sptrawler.

Nice little kick along today.

Yesterday's daily chart.


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## sptrawler (24 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Still going in the right direction sptrawler.
> 
> Nice little kick along today.
> 
> ...




All looking good, I'm looking for a top up opportunity on S32, pre divi.


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## sptrawler (16 September 2017)

Boggo said:


> Still going in the right direction sptrawler.
> 
> Nice little kick along today.
> 
> ...




Well Boggo, I think everyone got ahead of themselves, and sold out of S32 at $3.20.
Hope I haven't shot my feet off.lol
Looking for a retraction on AWC, at the moment.


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## Boggo (16 September 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Well Boggo, I think everyone got ahead of themselves, and sold out of S32 at $3.20.
> Hope I haven't shot my feet off.lol
> Looking for a retraction on AWC, at the moment.




I am still holding AWC, weekly stop is now up to 1.87.

I went long on S32 on the open last Monday in two accounts, one is short term trade account that capitalises on divvy runups etc and I sold those two days later.
The other is a weekly longer term account.

It did trigger my weekly scan but even though that may have been dividend inspired I still think there is upside and with the entry and the divvy I have a bit of wiggle room. Initial stop is at 2.81 on the weekly account until the ATR stop catches up (if it runs up).


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## captain black (16 September 2017)

Boggo said:


> Initial stop is at 2.81 on the weekly account until the ATR stop catches up (if it runs up).




No need to disclose the full code Boggo, but curious if your initial stop is based on a 3-Bar countback line (ala Daryl Guppy) or using a Lowest low in "x" bars?

I use a type of countback line as an initial stop with a few of my futures setups so always interested when I spot someone else using something similar.


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## Boggo (16 September 2017)

captain black said:


> No need to disclose the full code Boggo, but curious if your initial stop is based on a 3-Bar countback line (ala Daryl Guppy) or using a Lowest low in "x" bars?
> 
> I use a type of countback line as an initial stop with a few of my futures setups so always interested when I spot someone else using something similar.




No problem with the basic code, basic low of the last three bars. I haven't programmed it into any backtesting etc, it's more of a point of interest and more often than not as is the case with the chart of S32 above a definite point of interest.

In particular it is handy in my scan as the results table using that as an initial stop "guide" gives a buy quantity and dollar value based on a maximum of $2000.00 at risk on any one trade.

Excuse the poor coding in the two extracts below, I know what I want but I am fairly agricultural in how I get there via programming.
The code should explain the the entry slippage assumption of an entry 5% above the close price and the exit 1 cent below that initial stop.

These two elements are not in my base formula and back tests, they are just additions that appear in the scan results (below) and on the chart but are definite items of consideration in the eyeball process of analysing the scan results as are all the colored areas in the output below.
(hope all that makes sense after a steak, a beer and two reds  )

Back to AWC on this thread after this me thinks.


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## captain black (16 September 2017)

Boggo said:


> (hope all that makes sense after a steak, a beer and two reds  )




Lol, well done (and thanks for the detailed explanation), you're far more coherent than I used to be after a couple of reds


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## sptrawler (13 December 2017)

Well Boggo, I certainly missed the top, but am ever hopeful of a re entry point soon.
Aluminium is still become a scarce commodity, the LME reserves aren't looking any better.
The next month or two should see some slide, due to lack of volume. IMO


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## Boggo (13 December 2017)

I'm still in there in my SMSF based on the weekly.
It did cross the stop last week but it closed back above it so I didn't sell on Friday evening or Monday morning.
Looking at it from an EW perspective I have a target of around 2.70 with a minimum expectation of around 2.55.
I am in a position where I can give it room to move around but another approach to the stop line might be time to bail out for now.

Couple of charts, both weekly with one being a VSA approach that I am trying to get my head around.


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## sptrawler (13 December 2017)

I think you are on the money, but I do think there is a lot of market sentiment, looking for a correction.
Sometimes it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.
I'm thinking a double with S32, both have a lot of upside space. IMO


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## greggles (10 April 2018)

Alumina Limited hitting five year highs.


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## leyy (23 August 2018)

A very good half year result today reaching a 10 year high, next price target is $4.00 all blue skies from here.

This has been another outstanding result for the Company, with AWAC’s alumina margins reaching levels not seen since before the GFC with the average realised alumina price up 35% on the previous corresponding period. AWAC contained production cost increases to 11% over the same period despite higher raw material costs.

“Current market conditions are broadly expected to continue into the second half with the 6.3 mtpy.
The alumina price has averaged US$504 per tonne since 1 July 2018 which provides a strong base for AWAC’s second half result.”

Highlights below:


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## greggles (4 October 2018)

Hydro shutdown pushes up shares of South 32, Alumina Ltd

Gap up and breakout today for Alumina Ltd after Norsk Hydro said it would shut production at the world's biggest alumina plant. 

The AWC share price finished the day up 10.8% to $3.09 on huge volume of more than 60 million shares traded.


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## sptrawler (24 December 2018)

I'm still hoping for a further retraction, would like an entry point nearer $2, preferably below.
Aluminium is going to become a valuable commodity, as EV's become more prolific. IMO


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## Miner (18 April 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I'm still hoping for a further retraction, would like an entry point nearer $2, preferably below.
> Aluminium is going to become a valuable commodity, as EV's become more prolific. IMO



Good morning all
For the hopeful to enter into AWC  possibly haa been given through today's quarterly report.
Great outcome with $2 reduction on cash cost, almost half the revenue compared with previous quarter, significantly  low margin on alumina price and high capex. The CEO needs his bonus so he is beating own drum blaming the significant low market price for the fall out. Interesting. Not sure if I or any one read a forewarning on the likelyhood revenue due to market.
On a side note enjoy Easter Break, watch double demerit, eat Easter bun and stay safe.


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## sptrawler (13 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I'm still hoping for a further retraction, would like an entry point nearer $2, preferably below.
> Aluminium is going to become a valuable commodity, as EV's become more prolific. IMO



Well I can't wait forever, in at $2.28 dividend due to be announced soon, hopefully a good result.


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## Trav. (29 May 2020)

@sptrawler I thought that I would throw up a daily chart here. 

Counter trend signal shown on the 19/5 so hopefully it can hold a break of the $1.60 then start it's recovery.

Good Luck mate !


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## hja (29 May 2020)

It's starting to look interesting with swelling of volume (not shown on your chart, Trav) on the right edge and higher lows inside the trading range.


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## Trav. (29 May 2020)

@hja yes the OBV is starting to turn


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## hja (29 May 2020)

Trav. said:


> @hja yes the OBV is starting to turn
> 
> View attachment 103900



Not to sure what to make today of the huge volume bar. Something is up because big player/s getting out? --after hours trading

Yesterday's upthrust-like bar looked a little ugly but nothing serious in the big scheme of things. But combining both today's and yesterday's price bars producing long up tail, price pushed 85% down into the previous leg of candles.


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## Trav. (30 May 2020)

@hja yes that was huge volume yesterday, by the looks of it the biggest in AWC's history.

Ugly day for it and S32 didn't do much better so put it down to being a Friday and people exiting positions, as I can't see any other driver for it.


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## The Triangle (30 May 2020)

AWC has about an additional 130 million to spend on capex vs last year and they also had a -170 million cash flow last year (Fair enough as it was their cash hoard going to dividends).  That cash hoard is now gone and they are 'back to normal' cash balances.   (I'm working in USD)

However you slice it that is a $300 million dollar swing in cash flow that is required this year vs last.  Consider 530 million went to dividends, that leaves at best $230 million for dividends this year or about 8 cps.  Seems reasonable for a SP around $1.50 - especially when you convert form USD to AUD.   But. Aluminum was/is expected to be in surplus this year.  Prices have tanked.  The main user is transport.  Not exactly a very hot sector at the moment.   At the AGM - dividends were specifically flagged as being under review given corona virus.   I doubt they will borrow to keep dividends as they speak about keeping a balance sheet for cycles and low debt levels.   With margins where they are, EBITDA might be below $500m.  

Everyone should be worried about the state of commodities for the next year.  The entire world has been partially shut down for 3 months.  People still need food, clothes, TV, drugs, alcohol.  They don't need new cars, airplanes, refrigerators, and Macbooks.  I'm interested in AWC, cost curve position is excellent, but will gamble, wait it out and see if this plunges lower on tax loss selling and assume general doom and gloom predictions will scare more people in to selling, triggering stop losses.


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## hja (30 May 2020)

Trav. said:


> @hja yes that was huge volume yesterday, by the looks of it the biggest in AWC's history.
> 
> Ugly day for it and S32 didn't do much better so put it down to being a Friday and people exiting positions, as I can't see any other driver for it.



Ugly is breaking below both short-term and long-term (after breakout) trend lines...


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## hja (2 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> @hja yes that was huge volume yesterday, by the looks of it the biggest in AWC's history.



This anomaly was so obvious but it's often more subtle or hidden among dated bars.
This is why I wonder if there is a way to remove such volume bars and its price bar/candle from a chart.  Any idea how Trav or if there are other workarounds?


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## Trav. (2 June 2020)

hja said:


> This is why I wonder if there is a way to remove such volume bars and its price bar/candle from a chart. Any idea how Trav or if there are other workarounds?




@hja not that I am aware of mate.


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## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

Well I hope everyone got out of AWC when I bought in.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...-1-billion-tax-bill/12433908?section=business

At least it shows, this Government is getting into the multi nationals about tax avoidance, at last someone is doing something about it.
Most past governments have talked it up pre election, then been missing in action, when they got in office.
It isn't as though Alcoa hasn't been operating in Australia, since the mid 1960's?


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## sptrawler (17 November 2020)

Well AWC looks as though it may start moving again at last, so a bit of dollar cost averaging today.

I do hold and am in the red.


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## Trav. (21 January 2021)

Alcoa Corp Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Released but market wasn't too impressed

Holding but on a short leash






Extracts below and CEO highlighted the rise in alumina prices so far this year


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## sptrawler (21 January 2021)

Yes @Trav. I've just about lost patience with AWC, so when I bail out they will go balistic.
The only thing that keeps me hanging in is, mature business with great processing plant and great resources.
The down side, they are in Australia.lol
Expensive power costs, expensive labour costs and a media that hates mining.
What can go right right, not much IMO.


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## sptrawler (21 January 2021)

Definitely a carbuncle that needs to be excised and sent to China.lol
Sounds like a plan from our caring left wing  friends. Lol
Probably will end up a bauxite miner, as opposed to a bauxite processor, but that actually may be more value. Who knows.lol


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## rnr (22 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> Alcoa Corp Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Released but market wasn't too impressed
> 
> Holding but on a short leash
> 
> ...





sptrawler said:


> Definitely a carbuncle that needs to be excised and sent to China.lol
> Sounds like a plan from our caring left wing  friends. Lol
> Probably will end up a bauxite miner, as opposed to a bauxite processor, but that actually may be more value. Who knows.lol












Hey @trav and @sptrawler,

Could the chart above perhaps be a possibility...i.e. a higher wave 5 still to come before price travels lower?

Cheers, Rob


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## sptrawler (22 January 2021)

noirua said:


> Chinese cities continue to promote digital yuan through festive lotteries
> 
> 
> Conditions restricting participation to employees at commercial entities make this round slightly different to Shenzhen's prior "red envelope" promotional lottery schemes.
> ...





rnr said:


> View attachment 118839
> 
> 
> Hey @trav and @sptrawler,
> ...



Yes last week I was only down about $900 and thought about bailing.
But I just hope the loonies pull it in a bit and realise without businesses there isnt any welfare, then they wont be able to travel around the country closing places down. Lol
The good thing will be, welfare will be gone and the custodians will be running tafe, so everyone can learn how to prepare bush tucker for the tourists.


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## Miner (22 January 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Yes last week I was only down about $900 and thought about bailing.
> But I just hope the loonies pull it in a bit and realise without businesses there isnt any welfare, then they wont be able to travel around the country closing places down. Lol
> The good thing will be, welfare will be gone and the custodians will be running tafe, so everyone can learn how to prepare bush tucker for the tourists.



Morning star analysis - extract only


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## sptrawler (24 August 2021)

AWC half year presentation.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02410713-3A573573?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


Still in, still red, thankfully a dividend.


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## Miner (24 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> AWC half year presentation.
> 
> 
> https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02410713-3A573573?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
> ...



In Alumina plant there are always two-sides: red and white to complete the process


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## sptrawler (3 September 2021)

Miner said:


> In Alumina plant there are always two-sides: red and white to complete the process



Miner what is with the latest price run? today nearly $2 and 30 million shares traded. 
Does someone know something we don't? or have you been ramping again? 🤣


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## Miner (3 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Miner what is with the latest price run? today nearly $2 and 30 million shares traded.
> Does someone know something we don't? or have you been ramping again? 🤣



don't know mate but not complaining either. The volume of transaction when I saw alarmingly high. Some one must be cooking with gas.
This is one of the stocks, I feel very comfortable as company's policies are strong and their Alcoa (partner with Alumina) works with UGL /CIM going very well . People on contract are getting permanent jobs. Long term of course. purely as a speculation, I think something happening on pure aluminium side.
But interesting what these people have said


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## sptrawler (3 September 2021)

Miner said:


> don't know mate but not complaining either. The volume of transaction when I saw alarmingly high. Some one must be cooking with gas.
> This is one of the stocks, I feel very comfortable as company's policies are strong and their Alcoa (partner with Alumina) works with UGL /CIM going very well . People on contract are getting permanent jobs. Long term of course.
> But interesting what these people have said
> View attachment 129835



I agree I still hold and can't understand what is holding back the ceiling, time will tell, but patience is wearing thin.
I've seen other parts of the portfolio sky rocket, especially after I sell them. 🤣  🤣  🤣  🤣  🤣

This share investing is like being a landlord, all your good tenants leave and buy their own home, all the bad tenants stay.

I must apologies for that statement, it wasn't meant to offend anyone, it wasn't directed at anyone and if anyone was offended, please accept my apologies. I actually took myself down the back yard and gave myself a stern talking to, I hope that will suffice as fair punishment.


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## divs4ever (3 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I agree I still hold and can't understand what is holding back the ceiling, time will tell, but patience is wearing thin.
> I've seen other parts of the portfolio sky rocket, especially after I sell them. 🤣  🤣  🤣  🤣  🤣
> 
> This share investing is like being a landlord, all your good tenants leave and buy their own home, all the bad tenants stay.
> ...



 probably  why i rescue the investment cash and let the profits run so often 

  it is very calming to look at a share  and realizing you are only risking potential profits


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## sptrawler (3 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> probably  why i rescue the investment cash and let the profits run so often
> 
> it is very calming to look at a share  and realizing you are only risking potential profits



The only problem with that reasoning is, the price has to go above the dollar cost average, if it has been a dog, most people bail out when they can save the capital.
It's a bit like those who bought amp shares, when they floated, they are still waiting to let the profits run.
It is a great plan on rising shares, not so good on those that have gone nowhere, which in reality is a lot of Australia companies.
That is one good thing about this renewable future surge, it is putting a lot of new blood, into a rather decrepit share market, I think buying the old true blue faithfull shares is a bit shakey at the moment.
Just my opinion


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## divs4ever (3 September 2021)

one of the few Buffet wisdoms i follow  , is looking at a share with the intention of holding  'forever'  ( although i do often  rescue the investment cash  when there is a sensible opportunity )

 i seldom look at a share with a one year (plus ?? ) timeline , i am normally thinking ten year ( plus ) ( considering i am unlikely to live another twenty years , that is pretty close to 'forever' for me )

 obviously a younger member can think about twenty and thirty year time-frames 

 with AMP  ( bought in 2011 and averaged down , but sold in 2018 ) that is the importance of WATCHING your investments  .. when Bell Potter put out some research   on AMP explaining what the proposed super changes were going to include  and AMP had millions of tiny super accounts ( as the fund of last resort, many less than $3,000 )  i realized AMP faced some big problems BUT i was in a modest profit  so reached for the parachute  , the Hayne Royal Commission  started a little after just made me look terribly lucky .

 had i just stuck AMP in the 'bottom drawer ' i would be deep underwater just like many others  , but that one report was enough to spark a lucky escape  , 

  the last 10 years of investing has been littered with lucky escapes  for me , simply by reading and thinking  , the IPL escape was sparked by the drama at CTP and as soon as IPL stated signing deals with CTP , i headed for the exit , 

 i don't get them right all the time  , but every profit crystallized is cash i can park elsewhere 

 one big trap for long term holders is the current trend towards 'board refreshes ' , if you have solid management  is it really  a good idea to gamble with a change , if the company is BLAH maybe the problems are deeper than  the board of directors maybe middle and upper management need to change as well


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## frugal.rock (11 September 2021)

Noticed around a week ago or so that Alcoa (US markets) came up in movers list more than once.

I must've noticed it when in an zombie insomnia daze, I also remember reading something about bauxite problems or issues somewhere, but can't remember more than that. 😔
I sometimes fall asleep reading something and wake up startled when I drop the phone... ha! 😵

So, hopefully I can remember to do some Al and Ni checking this weekend, along with copper, cobalt...and where's lithium prices at these days, still smashing it?

Here a chart to show what I missed... Is it a Big keV deal, but wait, there's more?!


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## rederob (11 September 2021)

AWC will be buoyed by current high prices - in fact the highest since the peak in 2008:





On the downside, AWC has been hit by higher energy and shipping costs in particular.  Handysize freight costs are through the roof:




Covid has been a massive disrupter to global shipping, but prices have already abated and going forward are likely to halve.

On the plus side, aluminium is trending like copper into the future with demand expected to almost double over the next 30 years.


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## Miner (11 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Noticed around a week ago or so that Alcoa (US markets) came up in movers list more than once.
> 
> I must've noticed it when in an zombie insomnia daze, I also remember reading something about bauxite problems or issues somewhere, but can't remember more than that. 😔
> I sometimes fall asleep reading something and wake up startled when I drop the phone... ha! 😵
> ...



Enjoy weekend mate.
If you are Demon supporter, enjoy or  just watch them.
My cricket team is in deep trouble at Manchester however.


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## rederob (14 October 2021)

Alumina (as distinct from aluminium) is AWC's big ticket item and as you can see from the chart below, its price has rocketed up recently (past month):




I don't know the extent that AWC is exposed to spot prices versus term contracts, so cannot put a price increase on AWC shares as a result.
However, it's also the case that aluminium prices are almost at all time record highs:




On the downside, Handysize freight rates are around a third higher than the June 2021 peak.  However, the per tonne difference between freight and sales leans strongly towards AWC price upside, which is showing in the charts:


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## rederob (15 October 2021)

AWC gave its 3rd quarter update today, and it's in line with my previous post.
*Alumina Limited’s CEO, Mike Ferraro, said “This has been another solid quarterly performance by AWAC even though production costs remained at elevated levels and alumina prices were subdued due to high freight costs.  However, since the end of the quarter, alumina prices have surged from the third quarter average one-month lagged price of $292 per tonne to around $480 per tonne.  The average one-month lagged API price for the fourth quarter to date is $410 per tonne which would drive AWAC’s cash margin significantly higher than the $55 per tonne achieved in the third quarter.  The benefits of this increase will be reflected in AWAC’s fourth quarter results and the AWAC distributions to Alumina Limited in the first quarter of 2022."*​


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## Ann (13 January 2022)

Reading the previous post of @rederob was very interesting, it reads so well for a fundamental investor, sadly that was just at the stage a chartist with alacrity would be thinking about an exit!

This is a chart I just put up in my KISS thread down in Trading Journals

This is a re-entry for me.


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## rederob (13 April 2022)

AWC is back in the good buy-in range again:




But more short term price weakness is on the cards:


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