# S&P 500 (Profit Taking?)



## MARKETWAVES (19 August 2005)

*S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

   or

is this *Panic Selling* waiting in the midst ?....

This is a very valuable chart formation......  The 1st chart here shows true support... any more down days in the near future will probably violate it and cause this to look like a breakout in which a whole lot of traders will be interested... that's why I don't trade break-outs.

IT IS TOO LATE WHEN IT BREAKS OUT.....*4 ATTEMPTS HAVE BEEN  MADE ON THIS LINE.....*
THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS HOLD UP?



*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective. This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations. All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## MARKETWAVES (19 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

PG..  2. .....


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## DTM (19 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

Dow looks very weak too and I was just saying that to someone else that  I wouldn't be suprised if it hit 9000, 9500 more likely but still a big move down.  S&P500 looks weak too and has been rising on decreasing volume.  There should have been a drop with the amount of volume that went through on a bad month but looks like something is keeping it afloat.  On the daily charts, still some upwards movement likely but monthly's saying that its upward movement has been driven by weak buying.  

Looking at the oil charts, it still looks strong and still looks to keep on moving up.  I think the trigger will be when oil hits $70 per barrel (very soon I might add) and won't be suprised if it keeps going and hits $80.


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## MARKETWAVES (29 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

THIS  JUST  IN .....

This is now starting to look even more amazing 
with each passing day .....

This  is  a  classic  ..... *CAN  WE  CLOSE  THIS MAJOR  GAP?* 


WELL, YOU SAW IT HERE 1st....

DO YOU REALLY UNDERSTAND THESE IMPLICATIONS ?

WELL,  AS FOR ME I'M GETTING OUT OF THE WAY !



*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… * The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## tech/a (29 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> WELL, AS FOR ME I'M GETTING OUT OF THE WAY !
> 
> 
> *TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… * The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …





Why arent you shorting it X contracts?
With all this doom and gloom why arent the doom and gloomers shorting their brains out?
With this massive collapse we just have to have surely just sitting short and rolling contracts will see massive profits when all are crying over losses.


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## MARKETWAVES (29 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

TECH...   I am  not  a  doom   an  gloomer  ...  I 'M  A  REALIST ....

MORE  IMPORTANTLY...  I  HAVE  A  DEEP  UNDERSTANDING  OF  TECHNICAL ANLYSIS of  which  is the  very  name  that  you  choose  to use... SO, I   BELIEVE  THAT YOU ARE A TECHNICIAN ALSO ... 


What I have pointed out here on these charts is simply what is taught about  technical analysis and price movement ALL OVER THE WORLD......

DIVERGENCE  .... IS AND ALWAYS  HAS VERY SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS .... 

This is the main structural situation that is a problem for the stock market  right now...

Trading is not only a battle between Bulls and Bears... It is also a battle  between  *Technical  analysis* and *Fundamental analysis*.....EITHER ONE  OF  THESE  MOVE  THE  MARKET  ONE  WAY  OR  ANOTHER ...



 P.S DO  YOU  SEE  A  BULLISH SENARIO  DEVELOPING IN  STOCKS ?
       PLEASE POST  YOUR  CHARTS  FINDINGS.... 
       ALL  WOULD  LIKE  TO  SEE....


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## tech/a (29 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

Whoa!!!

Seems my comments have been taken as a personal challenge.
I'm simply posing a question.
Your right---in that I have a technical bent--diploma's even!!

I'm not questioning your analysis infact I quite like it.

I also know that analysis can and does fail---the longer the timeframe the more likely we can see failure or partial failure.

The ONLY analysis thats set in stone is that which we can see has panned out---like in your example.

I'm a mechanical trader---learnt long ago that longterm mechanical trading suited me and my pocket.
I'm happy to make up some charts---what would you like me to analyse and over what timeframe?
Other than divergence I find oscillators poor indicators and prefer price action itself.

I dont pour over charts and I rarely trade in a discretionary manner.
I'm of the opinion that technical and or fundamental analysis supplies only possible entries,stops,and exits---Starts and Finishes nothing more.

This in itself doesnt guarentee profitability----so you could still be a non profitable trader AND an expert in either or both fields.


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## MARKETWAVES (29 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

tech  a  please   Post  your  charts .....

  Post  any  time  frame......  Post  any charts 

  Post for  all  here  to  see .....


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## RichKid (29 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> tech  a  please   Post  your  charts .....
> 
> Post  any  time  frame......  Post  any charts
> 
> Post for  all  here  to  see .....




Okay MW and Tech, 
Now it looks like we're going to have a charting comparison (like a "face-off" in Zoolander- we can call it a chart-off, gotta watch the movie to know what I mean). No unwarranted personal criticisms please as we seem to have communication problems sometimes here on ASF. Just your view of the market action. We don't want another little battle. Let's just respect the other person's work and observe even if it doesn't match our own beliefs. And please, whatever you guys do, don't turn tail and runaway at the next little disagreement.


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## tech/a (30 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

Sorry Waves.

Just saw your post.

Had the kids over for tea last night.

I'll have a look at some charts tonight perhaps something your not looking at.
Then perhaps a look at the XAO.
I'll see what I can find of interest.
Happy to post up the results.

Out of interest---why have you taken my comments so personally particularly when Ive been speaking in general terms.

Why wouldn't you be short???
Is this not what your analysis has found?

A simple yes I've been short since the first post would have sufficed!


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## RichKid (30 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Sorry Waves.
> 
> Just saw your post.
> 
> ...




Tech just posted his analysis of the XAO in this thread but I've moved it to the XAO thread as it'll be neater there, here's the link. See post #111 etc.

BTW, tech, do you prefer following the XAO to the XJO? Thought the XJO may be more versatile as more instruments to trade it and hence more interest.


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## tech/a (30 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

Rich.
I dont follow it all that closely.

I'm really interested in how the portfolio is performing as a whole.
Mind you there are times when the XAO grabs me by the thoat and says take a good long look.


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## DTM (30 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

Looks like the S&P500 set for a minor rally.  Monthly chart still shows that its going to drop and daily charts saying that it will rally in the next 2 weeks.  Possible turning/pivotal points are 5th of Sept (high), 13 Sept (low) and major turning point of 20 to 25th Sept.  Oil looks set to drop short term and could be the cause of the minor rally but will expect market to drop at the end of the month.  

Just my thoughts


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## MARKETWAVES (6 September 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

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Tech- A,  a recap ......

*I'm not in the business of giving recomendations * ,, 
*I am no-ones broker or advisor...*
and most importantly my posts are *not hindsight ,,, * I wtrite it as I see it happening ..
based on sound technical analysis and rules ,,,


The way you respond to my posts is you think that I am implying a gurantee ,,, well , I would like to put a stop to that ,,,

I gaurantee nothing ,,,,, I recomend nothing ...
It,s all about an individuals trading style .... Just like you said about yourself .....

You know ,what I have learned from you is I need tho change my disclaimers .....

Because I don't do gaurantees either ,,, You hit it right on the nose ,,, 
You have your trading style ... so do I ,,, and everyone else out there ,,,, 

That's why , I should not be asked by you about where to entry or where to stop.....  *THIS DEPENDS ON ONES TRADING STYLE ,,,,,*

SURE WISH YOU COULD UNDERSTAND THIS ........


I trade Elliott Waves and I trade Fibonaacci Retracements ,,,, I think if you undersdtood these theories I don't think you would ask the question why arent you shorting this ? In the recent post ....


*HERES THE DISCLAIMER .......*

 YOU   WILL  BE  SEEING  ALOT  OF  THIS ......
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*THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS ...*

It is far more difficult to *Exit a trade * than to *Enter a trade * .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ,,,

THIS IS WHY ,

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you .
*( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM )  * 


THAT'S WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES , becase its giving you a probaility of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective , the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is called *Risk* to Reward ) not money mangement .

*Money mangement * is a topic unto itself ,.....

The* Risk * is determined by the diffrence between,,,the entry price and the stop price... This is the *Risk...*
On the other hand ...

Money mangement  is based on how much *CAPITAL* you have trade with,,,,,, which determins how many shares or contracts .....
you should purchase to enter the trade .... 

*My hopes are you really understand this principle ////*


*ALWAYS REMEMBER …. *  

*What makes a market place is all of our diffrences of opinions .*


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