# 2009 vs. 1987 vs. 1929



## Prem (16 August 2009)

Hey guys 

I need a little help on a eco assignment 

I have been searching everywhere for quite a while 

and i cant seem to find statistics on the following 

Global financial crisis impact on asx (09)

and i would like to comapre it to 1987 crash and the 

great depression 

Any info/ links ?

thanks in advance


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## beamstas (16 August 2009)

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html


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## Prem (16 August 2009)

beamstas said:


> http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html




thanks for the quick reply


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## Naked shorts (16 August 2009)

beamstas said:


> http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html




Looking at that chart really makes me wonder how we how exactly we bottomed out.


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## drsmith (16 August 2009)

Have we bottomed out ?

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composi...l?SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression


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## drsmith (16 August 2009)

The above chart puts 1987 into perspective.


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## knocker (16 August 2009)

catch a falling knife people lol


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## Prem (16 August 2009)

Where can i find average PE ratios at the peak just before the 

3 crashes 

thanks in advance


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## drsmith (16 August 2009)

Prem said:


> Where can i find average PE ratios at the peak just before the 3 crashes



http://dshort.com/charts/SP-and-PE10-large.gif

2929-1932: 32.5-4.8
1966-1982: 24.1-6.6
2000-March 2009: 44.2-13.4


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## oztrades (16 August 2009)

what happened to the depression in 1890?


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## michael_selway (16 August 2009)

beamstas said:


> http://dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html




Interesting charts 







Thanks

MS


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## moreld (17 August 2009)

I found those dshort charts tainted by his market perspective. So I came up with my own tainted charts
http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/08/the-great-depression-vs-the-great-bubble/

In my post I link to Shiller's data which may also be of use.

Now I want to do the same for the Australian share market. Can someone please point me at a source for good long term data from the ASX. Monthly closing prices since 1900 would be wonderful.

TIA - Dean


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## drsmith (17 August 2009)

moreld said:


> I found those dshort charts tainted by his market perspective.



In what sense ?

Are you saying he's fudged the numbers or just the location of major turning points ?


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## moreld (17 August 2009)

Take this chart as an example




What message do you see when you look at that? What message do you think dshort is trying to convey? When aligning charts it is possible to create almost whatever image you want. dshort chooses to present a negative view.

In this chart he has done it by aligning the 1929 crash's first small inflection point with a major trough from the current bear. I discussed it here in a beer addled kind of way http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/08/two-beers-down-i-should-know-better/

To help you see what I'm talking about, here is a chart of the 1929 crash.


Now why would anyone align hear market troughs using that blip? I can only see one answer and that's they've been drinking too much gin and want to bring us all down.


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## Windza (17 August 2009)

Not abundant in analysis or figures but I seem to feel better after looking at this (from the horses mouth):
http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/share_price_movements.pdf


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## Wysiwyg (17 August 2009)

Windza said:


> Not abundant in analysis or figures but I seem to feel better after looking at this (from the horses mouth):
> http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/share_price_movements.pdf




Yeah good one. Would like to see the XAO under 4000 one more time though. (please )


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## Buckeroo (17 August 2009)

moreld said:


> Now why would anyone align hear market troughs using that blip? I can only see one answer and that's they've been drinking too much gin and want to bring us all down.




Quite simply my dear Watson, because of the fundamentals. 

Yep, you can position lines on a graph to suit whatever your viewpoint is, but for any truth found in a graph, it has to also  be aligned with current economic fundamentals.

So, is it sound fundamentals when this current bull market & the so called green shoots of recovery, are on the back of government stimulus to the point where there are number of major countries in the world close to default? And what happens when we remove the stimulus measures which we will have to do soon before hyperinflation takes hold?

We are living a lie, thinking we can fix our debts with more debt. Its only a matter of time before the house of cards falls.

Cheers


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## Prem (18 August 2009)

How has the GFC impacted on other markets other than asx?


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## Prem (18 August 2009)

is average debt/equity ratio relevant in comparing the different crashes?


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## ThingyMajiggy (18 August 2009)

Prem said:


> How has the GFC impacted on other markets other than asx?




the charts posted in here are other markets aren't they?


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## Prem (18 August 2009)

I meant other equity markets 

like Australian housing market


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## Prem (19 August 2009)

finished my eco assignment 

thanks for all the help guys


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