# Gold Mining Stocks



## tinhat (17 March 2013)

There is an active thread Gold Price - Where is it heading?, and an inactive thread "gold stocks", but I would like to discuss gold mining stocks. I know we discuss gold mining stocks a bit in the Gold Price thread but maybe they need their own thread.

At the moment I am holding MML and SLR. I bought both on the 8 March and currently am up 5% on MML and down 3.8% on SLR. I have NST on my watch list. I generally try and buy stocks which I feel are undervalued and which I think have sound fundamentals. Thus these three stocks meet my criteria. I try and buy on momentum. With these gold stocks though, I am looking to ride what might be either a relief rally (short lived???) or a turnaround. Time will tell. So I am speculating.


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## notting (17 March 2013)

NST was absolutley crakers on Friday.
Leave the little relative low ball high ball, buy sell, orders in on almost any of them and let the ping pong ball do the rest.
If you didn't get long on the dogs of the ASX 20, who cares? Why wait for that dip as they say?
There is still a party to be Played in the chaos of the gold space.

Resources are warming up too.
Love the relatively oversold shenanigans.


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## So_Cynical (17 March 2013)

With my mind set and my previous experience with gold mining stocks...i just cant buy into gold at the moment, POG can go either way and the sector in general is still not cheap (historically cheap) while there appears to be some value emerging, for me its just to early.

Better to let the big moves play out first.


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## mr. jeff (18 March 2013)

RRL is the most likely candidate to give a decent bounce, it is favoured by the larger money and is sitting above a key level at 4.25 - based on the pattern I am seeing of large gold stock buying late last week it may be that there is a change taking place in the sector. Could easily be wrong. Perhaps it may be prompted by the movement of uncertain money in Europe which may get more headlines over the coming week.

Other stocks of gold - BDR has fantastic grades and costs. NST has low reserves but is a successful driller, AQG has large resources and has been hammered, SLR as mentioned -> more to come.


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## CapitalVia (19 March 2013)

does Gold always up in market???


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## tinhat (20 March 2013)

CapitalVia said:


> does Gold always up in market???



Even if I understood your question I still probably wouldn't be able to answer it. Can you rephrase the question?


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## mr. jeff (21 March 2013)

This is what I am watching right now in the goldies showing a break of trend and a clear level to head to.













All showing a similar pattern of a sustained sell down with the loss of lustre followed by the change of trend. 
At this stage ( as with every change of trend) it is uncertain as to whether we will see it stick. 

Certainly the MC's of these companies have become more approachable, but big players obviously aren't sure of the future prices for gold and whether there will be increases worth chasing based on a return of strength, particularly in the U.S.

One thing that is up in the air is whether people will begin to rethink holding all currency and whether partial gold is a more safe thing to do. I wonder whether the people of Cyprus considered this earlier - or whether having your cash in physical stacks held in a lock box in the bank would protect you from the proposed tax.

Gold miners are currently in a see-saw in my view and it is not clear that the crazy upwards moves that have been expected will actually eventuate. I have been long gold recently and have only seen a $15 - 20 move since Cyprus started. If this was a major consideration, then surely POG would be heading through 1750 - 1800 right now based on real demand exacerbated by a return of large speculators.


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## CanOz (26 March 2013)

This is interesting....



> (CA) According to INK Research, insider buying of gold stocks on the S&P/TSX exchange is at 7:1, a multi-year high - Globe and Mail




I wonder if the same thing is occurring on ASX Gold stocks?

CanOz


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## FlyingFox (26 March 2013)

CanOz said:


> This is interesting....
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Thanks for the update.


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## catfish (26 March 2013)

There are some really cheap gold stocks ATM. I hold red @$1.2 and rms @$0.5. Both appear cheap and would double if there was a substantial change in the direction of POG. 

Slr is on my watchlist. 

These make up only 10pc of my portfolio and are there as a hedge. I would not expect gold stock outperformance in the recent market. As interest rates dropped the market bought up yielding stocks and sold off stocks like rms slr and red. 

If there is a serious correction in the market in the next two years, the POG will show off its inverse relationship and small gold miners which are coming into production will rise strongly.

Always good to have a few gold stocks in the portfolio.


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## So_Cynical (26 March 2013)

catfish said:


> There are some really cheap gold stocks ATM.




Problem is they can go a lot cheaper, if POG breaks below 1400 i reckon most of the Aussie gold stocks could see They're share price halved due to the market over doing it.

I'm not stepping in until the argument is compelling...right now its just attractive.


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## mr. jeff (26 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Problem is they can go a lot cheaper, if POG breaks below 1400 i reckon most of the Aussie gold stocks could see They're share price halved due to the market over doing it.
> 
> I'm not stepping in until the argument is compelling...right now its just attractive.




I definitely agree. Certainly could see a further rush for the exit if POG weakens. 

I wonder though if this Cyprus issue will end up manifesting in gold in any way. Certainly to date it has not even blinked which is a surprise to many. Of course time will tell, I can only suggest that perhaps there are still a lot of long positions which were hoping for further US weakness and gold strength and since the recent run have taken the Cyprus event as an opportunity to evacuate their bloated holdings.

This hovering at 1600 is not too worrying though, as all the headlines of this trader and that major hedge fund trader selling their holdings in gold have really not killed the strong price and at $1600 it is still profitable for enough miners to justify further digging and drilling. 

Thanks for the sobering up again though, many Aussie speculative plays have not performed at all well lately and this mood could really smash the goldies if the price support was removed.

Cheers.


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## catfish (26 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Problem is they can go a lot cheaper, if POG breaks below 1400 i reckon most of the Aussie gold stocks could see They're share price halved due to the market over doing it.
> 
> I'm not stepping in until the argument is compelling...right now its just attractive.




I'm not 'stepping in' either . If there is further weakness in POG I would expect my other 90pc to pick up the slack. 

I see you have chosen PGI in the April comp.what do you value them at assuming POG stable @1600? They don't provide as detailed forecasts as other miners coming into production, which may lead to some pricing inefficiencies and an opportunity. 

I might consider a small PGI of SLR purchase with my recent dividend money.


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## So_Cynical (26 March 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> hovering at 1600 is not too worrying though, as all the headlines of this trader and that major hedge fund trader selling their holdings in gold have really not killed the strong price and at $1600 it is still profitable for enough miners to justify further digging and drilling.




Sure, but with a lot of miners producing at around the $900 to $1000 range coupled with the POG breaking below the new sideways channel and under the long term trend...could easily be some panic style selling of goldies and the gold ETF,s

I love a good panic. 

-----------------------------



catfish said:


> I see you have chosen PGI in the April comp.what do you value them at assuming POG stable @1600? They don't provide as detailed forecasts as other miners coming into production, which may lead to some pricing inefficiencies and an opportunity.




I don't do valuations, picked PGI because its really really cheap (historically) at the moment and based on what the CEO said today.

According to today's ann.

http://www.panterragold.com/userfiles/file/news/26_3_2013 Las Lagunas Project - clarification.pdf



			
				www.panterragold.com said:
			
		

> Mr Brian Johnson, Chairman and CEO of PanTerra Gold Limited, said that he was disappointed that the Company’s market capitalisation had recently been reduced to below its investment level in the project and well short of its NPV,




The way i see it all the hard work is done for PGI at Las Lagunas, now its just a matter of making the plant work better and recover more, get closer to planned thru put...at current recovery levels and POG i would imagine they are operating with a small profit margin..


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## sinner (26 March 2013)

In Feb 2012 AngloGold Ashanti CEO, Mark Cutifani claimed avg cost of production for the industry was $1250/oz and by Nov 2012 it was $1350!

My view is that gold miners are getting stuck between a rock and a hard place in the sense that the avg cost of production per ounce of gold is rising closer and closer to the POG which spells declining profit margins for the gold miners as a group. Now that the POG has stopped rising those margins are getting squeezed tighter and tigher every time the avg cost of production creeps up.

Here's the Philly Gold/Silver Miners Index priced in ounces of gold.



and the GoldBug Index priced in ounces of gold


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## tinhat (12 April 2013)

Despite a down day for gold miners today I decided I wanted to end the week out of gold miners so I sold out of my recent buys into MML, SLR and NST and took a loss. The bulls are in control of the stock market at the moment and gold is being sold down. It will be interesting to see whether it can bounce off or at least stay on support around the 1560 mark. I don't have the stomach for gold miners at the moment though. There are less risky buy signals still popping up here and there.

I think there is some great value amongst gold mining stocks at the moment including MML, SLR, NST, EVN but like all commodity stocks it doesn't matter how well run the company is the market price of the commodity is the main variable.

Maybe there will be an opportunity to buy some of these stocks at cheaper prices and maybe I will buy back in at higher prices if a positive trend emerges.

Around the globe the money printing continues but their is an absence of fear at the moment.

This helped me make my decision today:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6487&p=765659#post765659


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## tinhat (15 April 2013)

Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.


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## CanOz (15 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.




Are you fading that spike Tinhat?

The best time to fade a spike like that is when the market is "too short"...it's so short that the shorts keep covering, thus preventing the price from dropping much more. Usually this is when lots of new selling has joined the market. I'm not sure we are at that stage yet, but we'll see. I'll post a video of the stops getting hit and the long liquidation, you can judge for yourself if it was new shorts as well. Will post in the gold thread.

CanOz


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## AdamVW (15 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.




I am indeed heartened by the news that the learned Mr Tinhat has bought back into the market.

I shall disconnect the noose from my rafter forthwith :behead::behead::behead:


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## skyQuake (15 April 2013)

Doubt it'll be over so quick. Too many goldies have cracked significant lows


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## skc (15 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.




MML just lowered their production guidance for the 3rd time in 6 months. Have you updated your valuation to suit?



skyQuake said:


> Doubt it'll be over so quick. Too many goldies have cracked significant lows




Agree but probably a breather soon. Gold potentially needs to retest $1500 before really moving to the downside...
but it's just a hunch and certainly not something I'd base my trades on.


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## trillionaire#1 (15 April 2013)

Well ,thank goodness I added some gold stocks to my portfolio

I had already triggered a stop loss on resolute and troy resources before this....eeer ,down leg.

sadly I didn't have one in  place for KCN/GRY/AQG, so angry at myself .

I should be cutting my losses ,but im going to let the noose tighten a little more and see if I 
can at least reduce my losses during the week.


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## So_Cynical (15 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> (12th-April-2013) Despite a down day for gold miners today I decided I wanted to end the week out of gold miners so I sold out of my recent buys into MML, SLR and NST and took a loss. The bulls are in control of the stock market at the moment and gold is being sold down. It will be interesting to see whether it can bounce off or at least stay on support around the 1560 mark. I don't have the stomach for gold miners at the moment though. There are less risky buy signals still popping up here and there.







tinhat said:


> Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.




Insane, completely insane.

There's a time and we are not there yet.

-------------------

Troy at under $1.40 would be compelling.


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## Intrinsic Value (15 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Despite a down day for gold miners today I decided I wanted to end the week out of gold miners so I sold out of my recent buys into MML, SLR and NST and took a loss. The bulls are in control of the stock market at the moment and gold is being sold down. It will be interesting to see whether it can bounce off or at least stay on support around the 1560 mark. I don't have the stomach for gold miners at the moment though. There are less risky buy signals still popping up here and there.
> 
> I think there is some great value amongst gold mining stocks at the moment including MML, SLR, NST, EVN but like all commodity stocks it doesn't matter how well run the company is the market price of the commodity is the main variable.
> 
> ...




I have been thinking of buying SLR for the past month or so but glad I haven't.

It really looks like a good long term buy at current prices.

Sooner or later all this printing of money via Japan, USA, and Europe is going to come to a head and gold will be back in favour big time. 

You might have to wait a year or longer but a retreat into gold is almost a certainty as some stage given the state of the world economy.


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## So_Cynical (15 April 2013)

Intrinsic Value said:


> Sooner or later all this printing of money via Japan, USA, and Europe is going to come to a head and gold will be back in favour big time.
> 
> You might have to wait a year or longer but a retreat into gold is almost a certainty as some stage given the state of the world economy.




Agree...the POG fundamentals are undeniable and completely sound, Gold will rally again at some point, however we all know or at least should know by now that the market can ignore and go against fundamentals and the inevitable for very long periods of time.


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## tinhat (15 April 2013)

CanOz said:


> Are you fading that spike Tinhat?
> 
> The best time to fade a spike like that is when the market is "too short"...it's so short that the shorts keep covering, thus preventing the price from dropping much more. Usually this is when lots of new selling has joined the market. I'm not sure we are at that stage yet, but we'll see. I'll post a video of the stops getting hit and the long liquidation, you can judge for yourself if it was new shorts as well. Will post in the gold thread.
> 
> CanOz




CanOz - if you have the time please do (and I will try and see if I understand it).



AdamVW said:


> I am indeed heartened by the news that the learned Mr Tinhat has bought back into the market.
> 
> I shall disconnect the noose from my rafter forthwith :behead::behead::behead:






skc said:


> MML just lowered their production guidance for the 3rd time in 6 months. Have you updated your valuation to suit?
> 
> 
> 
> ...






So_Cynical said:


> Insane, completely insane.
> 
> There's a time and we are not there yet.
> 
> ...




I'm glad to have provided some entertainment to others today. I don't mind looking the fool if I have been foolish. That's why I post here - to learn. I just think I drank too much coffee this morning (being Monday). I seriously need to write a checklist and keep it next to the computer so that I have to tick all the boxes before I hit "Submit" with my online broker. In any case the position I took today, as foolish as it was, was one sixth the size of the total positions I closed on Friday. Patience is a failing of mine.

I did take into account that MML have continued to underdeliver but I should have waited for the release of the Chinese GDP figure which I knew was coming out today.

*skc* -I think that the question of fundamental value is the problem with my decision to buy back into MML too early. The fire in the mine obviously was a big setback for them. If they do get back on track and achieve their expansion plans my most pessimistic valuation would be $8 at least by the time they get up to 200,000 ounces per annum (depends on the price of gold of course). I want to be long MML in the long run. I have been in and out of it a bit over the last three years.


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## AdamVW (15 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> CanOz - if you have the time please do (and I will try and see if I understand it).
> 
> *I'm glad to have provided some entertainment to others today.* I don't mind looking the fool if I have been foolish. *That's why I post here - to learn*. I just think I drank too much coffee this morning (being Monday). I seriously need to write a checklist and keep it next to the computer so that I have to tick all the boxes before I hit "Submit" with my online broker. In any case the position I took today, as foolish as it was, was one sixth the size of the total positions I closed on Friday. Patience is a failing of mine.
> 
> ...




Yeah, thanks Tinny, as they say, "the day we stop learning is the day we die". Got a question for you.

In regard to selling, I remained patient and decided not to sell my SAR.  Having said that, I only have 1500, this is all a learning exercise to me at the moment.  But, they are down 38% of value since I bought them about 4 weeks ago.

Clearly, there is little value in me selling @0.21 and making a loss but my question is, do you think I am right in holding onto them until the value recovers?  I am confident that the company is in good shape so not likely to shut up shop so I won't loose the lot.  Or, do you think, even though I have lost this much value, is it still worth reinvesting the current stock into something that is likely to start making some gains straight away, eg Financials?

Your advise would be gratefully appreciated.


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## burglar (16 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> ... I am confident that the company is in good shape so not likely to shut up shop so I won't loose the lot.  ...




Congrats!  This the ultimate of hard questions.
My intent is kind, though the tone might be harsh.

Clearly, you have put them in the "bottom draw".
Now your asking if you should have or not.
This cuts to the heart of your plan.

Was it your plan to have a lottery ticket in your portfolio?
If so, all is well and going to plan.
If not, you will need to learn to use stop losses.


Are you investing, trading or speculating?

An investor probably would have avoided this stock.
A trader would have stopped out with a small loss.

My opinion, FWIW
I feel you are resigned to hold them awhile until the price returns.


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## AdamVW (16 April 2013)

burglar said:


> Congrats!  This the ultimate of hard questions.
> My intent is kind, though the tone might be harsh.
> 
> Clearly, you have put them in the "bottom draw".
> ...




Thanks Burglar

well, I wouldn't class these as a lottery ticket exactly, I think they are less speculative than that but clearly my timing was not good.  The hazard of being a newbie in the game and not knowing enough about a tip when it is offered.  (Note to self: remember the old carpenter's golden rule; "measure twice, cut once".)

In regard to my plan, it is only half a plan I am discovering and your advice regarding stop losses is well received. Basically, I would have called myself an investor, my plan being to wait until a stock has gained 100%, self 50% and buy something else to increase my portfolio.  I haven't got to page 2 were it talks about what if stocks make a loss.....hmmmm. 

So, I will get home in the morning after nightshift, have a snooze and see how the early market has faired and make a decision then on whether to sell or not.  I think that stocks will rebound a little early but who knows.  I would like to perhaps buy some financials but will see then.

Cheers mate, 

sleep well my friend.  :sleeping:


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## tinhat (16 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> Yeah, thanks Tinny, as they say, "the day we stop learning is the day we die". Got a question for you.
> 
> In regard to selling, I remained patient and decided not to sell my SAR.  Having said that, I only have 1500, this is all a learning exercise to me at the moment.  But, they are down 38% of value since I bought them about 4 weeks ago.
> 
> ...




Trust me - my advice is not valuable and I can't give you any anyway. I don't know anything about SAR but I would say your decision whether to hold for the medium-long term would depend a lot on their cost of production against where you think the price of gold might be in the medium term and whether you think the management are any good. Fundamental investors will tell you that the market price doesn't matter in determining the value of the company. But it depends on how much risk and volatility you are prepared to wear. And also, for a miner they are beholden to the underlying price of the commodity which they have little influence over. They are price takers - so at the end of the day it is all about forecasting price and knowing the cost of production.

Given we are talking about a few hundred dollars in value now it may not matter too much whether you sell or hold if you are prepared to forget about it for the time being. As for selling and going into financial instead, well that would be selling low and buying high. I don't know whether the financials are going to rally another 5, 10 or 20 percent but, unless you are looking for long term dividend, I don't know that financials are the right place to be looking for capital gain just now. 

Stan Weinstein's "Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" is the best introduction I've read to trend trading and a simple method of setting stop-losses. With stop-losses you've got to maintain the discipline and take the psychological pain of sticking to them and accept that a lot of the time you will be whipsawed out of a position but that in the long run they will work in your favour. And don't be too eager to jump back in "early" like I demonstrated yesterday.


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## AdamVW (16 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.




MML you say Tinny?......sucks to be you my friend LOL. :


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## AdamVW (16 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Trust me - my advice is not valuable and I can't give you any anyway. I don't know anything about SAR but I would say your decision whether to hold for the medium-long term would depend a lot on their cost of production against where you think the price of gold might be in the medium term and whether you think the management are any good. Fundamental investors will tell you that the market price doesn't matter in determining the value of the company. But it depends on how much risk and volatility you are prepared to wear. And also, for a miner they are beholden to the underlying price of the commodity which they have little influence over. They are price takers - so at the end of the day it is all about forecasting price and knowing the cost of production.
> 
> Given we are talking about a few hundred dollars in value now it may not matter too much whether you sell or hold if you are prepared to forget about it for the time being. As for selling and going into financial instead, well that would be selling low and buying high. I don't know whether the financials are going to rally another 5, 10 or 20 percent but, unless you are looking for long term dividend, I don't know that financials are the right place to be looking for capital gain just now.
> 
> Stan Weinstein's "Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" is the best introduction I've read to trend trading and a simple method of setting stop-losses. With stop-losses you've got to maintain the discipline and take the psychological pain of sticking to them and accept that a lot of the time you will be whipsawed out of a position but that in the long run they will work in your favour. And don't be too eager to jump back in "early" like I demonstrated yesterday.




Yeah, woke up after my nightshift snooze to find someone had driven a macktruck through my cornfield of SAR shares. So, nothing to do now but just let them recover.


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## Ves (16 April 2013)

Doesn't SAR have a cost of production of $1,600 per oz?


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## Boggo (16 April 2013)

Guys, seriously.
Go here, you get cheap food and drinks, much better form of gambling 
http://www.adelaidecasino.com.au/casino/welcome


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## burglar (16 April 2013)

Ves said:


> Doesn't SAR have a cost of production of $1,600 per oz?




Average cash costs $AUD971 per oz @ Dec 2012

Ohh!!! You were just kidding ... right!?


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## wadesansom (16 April 2013)

*Macquarie Gold Ltd Floating*

So I am a new investor, and I have been rather drawn to the floating of the Macquarie Gold Ltd - The company is a subsidiary of Macquarie Group.

I applied for 8,000 shares for $2,000 @ 0.25 cents per share. The cutoff date was last Friday (12/04/2013) but has now been extended until sometime in July. I assume this is because they have not received enough public investment.

I am just curious as to your thoughts on the newly (to be) listed company on the ASX and if you would recommend investing in them.

I am a uni student with an investment property, I am keen to start on the ASX, but have limited experience or knowledge. $2,000 is not the end of the world to me, but it would be a big of a "kick in the nuts" to lose - what I'm saying is I can afford to lose it, but I do not have much disposable income to play with. 

Thanks.


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## Ves (16 April 2013)

burglar said:


> Average cash costs $AUD971 per oz @ Dec 2012
> 
> Ohh!!! You were just kidding ... right!?



I don't research or buy mining stocks, but the difference between the figure you have quoted vs the one in this article is compelling:



> Take Saracen, a small WA goldminer whose all-in costs have been pushing $1600 an ounce. While those sorts of production costs rightly ring alarm bells, part of the cause lies in the fact the company has been spending up on expansion of its Whirling Dervish mine, which will ensure greater production as early as next year.
> 
> Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...l-the-pinch-20130415-2hw3k.html#ixzz2Qanl0wVO




Does it mean that margins now are low but won't be forever?


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## Uncle Festivus (16 April 2013)

If you are serious about Aussie gold stocks this could be handy - 

http://goldnerds.com.au/


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## tinhat (16 April 2013)

Ves said:


> I don't research or buy mining stocks, but the difference between the figure you have quoted vs the one in this article is compelling:
> 
> 
> 
> Does it mean that margins now are low but won't be forever?




The gold miners quote cash cost per ounce of gold which only tells part of the story. Cash costs generally include credits for non targeted metals too (such as copper and silver) which reduced the reported cash cost. Yet these "credits" that reduce the reported cash cost of course are subject to market forces and don't really subtract from the cash cost at all. Total costs (direct and indirect) can be significantly higher. 

There are a lot of things you need to take into account for a miner on top of their reported cash cost. Capex spending of course. Mine life. Generally a miner's marginal cost of production will increase into the life of a mine as they need to spend more money to dig up lower grades of ore as the mine life gets extended. Results can  be lumpy due to hitting lower grades, having to remove overburden. Then there are exploration costs. Then there are the many risks posed by the natural environment with mining - flooding, land slippage, etc. Then there is the processing. Forecasting what grades of ore are coming out of the mine, stockpiling and scheduling which grades of ore to use to maximise the the efficiency of the processing plant.

So cach costs only tell one part of the story and there can be a lot of factors that can move around the cash cost during mining and processing.

In the case of MML which I follow quite a bit, for my back of the envelope calculations, I estimate total costs per ounce of gold produced to be cash cost (which I throw a 20% contingency onto) plus 50%. So, I use an estimate for MML of total expenditure per ounce of gold produced at US$450.

If the price of gold stays down for long then we can expect a lot of miners to either shut down or to turn off mine expansion and capex. I don't know what the true cost of production for Aussie gold miners is but I believe they are high compared to overseas producers and Australian producers probably don't represent a very large proportion of gold production?

BTW - I just found this:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...re-than-reported/story-e6frg9df-1226557753077


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## Intrinsic Value (16 April 2013)

I think I remember somewhere that SLR's cost of production was around 400 an ounce.

The whole problem is that with commodities you are a price taker so there is always a risk that prices can fluctuate a fair bit.

SLR is looking even more attractive today down to 1.30 something.

I still thinik it is a good long term buy as even if gold goes to a 1000 an ounce they would still be making a profit.


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## skc (16 April 2013)

There's a relief rally in gold stocks to be bought now I think.

EVN down 19%.
RSG up 5 %.

That's about as wide a spread I have seen in the same sector without stock specific news.


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## tinhat (16 April 2013)

Here is the graphic from the article I linked to above, from January 2013. Tip - if you can't get behind the news ltd paywall, google the headline then click on the link from google. Usually that will let you through the pay-wall.


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## tinhat (16 April 2013)

skc said:


> There's a relief rally in gold stocks to be bought now I think.
> 
> EVN down 19%.
> RSG up 5 %.
> ...




I just bought some more MML at $3.05. Will check out the other miners.


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## tinhat (16 April 2013)

Today's SMH about gold miners costs:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/highcost-producers-feel-the-pinch-20130415-2hw3k.html


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## skc (16 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Today's SMH about gold miners costs:
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/highcost-producers-feel-the-pinch-20130415-2hw3k.html




This is from Morgan Stanley. I don't know about it's accurate or methodology.


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## So_Cynical (16 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Here is the graphic from the article I linked to above, from January 2013. Tip - if you can't get behind the news ltd paywall, google the headline then click on the link from google. Usually that will let you through the pay-wall.
> 
> View attachment 51789




As your attachment indicates, *world average *price is about 1000 USD...at 1300 USD an ounce a would reckon that 10% of miners world wide would be losing money unless they have a high POG hedging arrangement.


----------



## CanOz (16 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> As your attachment indicates, *world average *price is about 1000 USD...at 1300 USD an ounce a would reckon that 10% of miners world wide would be losing money unless they have a high POG hedging arrangement.




Maybe the producers conspired to push the down, having added to their commercial short position the week before. Just hire an investment bank, give them 1 billion bucks....








> "make sure you make it look like stops getting hit....we're near the low, so now's the time to do it..."


----------



## jimbowan (18 April 2013)

Its quiet here  Is that because everyone is out loading up on physical bullion?!

What are peoples feelings on entering the gold stock arena? Dont worry about the charts just get in now? Wait til they show some bounce?

Are they even a good play or should I be listening to the doomsayers and be down the mint?

I am quite liking TRY, SLR and NCM at current prices. 

I know no direct advice can be given, however was hoping someone with more experience than me can shed some light on whether being patient and following my strategy is valid in this crazy gold drop week or just get in now.


----------



## tinhat (18 April 2013)

jimbowan said:


> Its quiet here  Is that because everyone is out loading up on physical bullion?!
> 
> What are peoples feelings on entering the gold stock arena? Dont worry about the charts just get in now? Wait til they show some bounce?
> 
> ...




Mate we are waiting for them to all start holding hands and sing Kumbaya in the "gold price -where's it heading" thread first.

Everything down again today. The exception on my watch list is RMS.


----------



## So_Cynical (18 April 2013)

jimbowan said:


> Its quiet here  Is that because everyone is out loading up on physical bullion?!
> 
> What are peoples feelings on entering the gold stock arena? Dont worry about the charts just get in now? Wait til they show some bounce?
> 
> ...




I'm waiting patiently as i have been for 2 years since selling out of my gold stocks (was left holding 1 very cheap parcel) ~ TRY and NCM are the only 2 miners worth owning in my opinion and im not budging till i see $1.40 and $14.99 

When knife catching you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.


----------



## jancha (19 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> I'm waiting patiently as i have been for 2 years since selling out of my gold stocks (was left holding 1 very cheap parcel) ~ TRY and NCM are the only 2 miners worth owning in my opinion and im not budging till i see $1.40 and $14.99
> 
> When knife catching you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.




Caught the knife with NCM @ $15.98 yesterday. If the POG drops back down and NCM should follow I'll buy another parcel @ $14.99. If the POG doesn't fall dramatically again I don't think it will get to $14.99 hence the buy.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 April 2013)

My experience with knife catching is that the win rate is low (may require multiple attempts at feeling out the support), but the risk can be fairly low also, so long as the volatility isn't too high.  High volatility knife catching is much harder unless there's a huge support that everyone sees.  If that's the case I'd hope for it to drop below the support and catch the Vic 2b pattern.  Some stocks did that today.


----------



## So_Cynical (20 April 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> My experience with knife catching is that the win rate is low




My experience is the win rate is very high, in fact about 81.6%  just takes a while to come around is all.


----------



## Intrinsic Value (22 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> My experience is the win rate is very high, in fact about 81.6%  just takes a while to come around is all.




It all depends on what kind of falling knife you are trying to catch.

If it is a good quality stock with good fundamentals that is getting hammered then the win rate can be quite good.

I couldnt resist I bought SLR today at 1.30. It is a medium term buy so I am prepared to wait awhile for it to bear fruit.

I cant believe that gold wont rise again especially with all the money printing going on and the precarious nature of many countries in the euro zone.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> My experience is the win rate is very high, in fact about 81.6%  just takes a while to come around is all.




Sounds good.  How long do you hold?


----------



## So_Cynical (22 April 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sounds good.  How long do you hold?




A long time, that's the trick..use time to your advantage.

Average time held for closed winning trades is 407 days.

--------------

For example while on the subject of Gold stocks....my best ever Gold stock result is as follows

TRY - Troy resources

 Entry 13 Nov 2008 @ $0.77
 Exit 9 Aug 2011 @ $4.07
 Total Days Held 999
 Total Gross Trade Profit 386.97%


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> A long time, that's the trick..use time to your advantage.
> 
> Average time held for closed winning trades is 407 days.
> 
> ...




Thanks. Buy on a big dip and sell on a wide trailing stop -  Is that basically the idea?  Do you combine with FA?


----------



## So_Cynical (22 April 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks. Buy on a big dip and sell on a wide trailing stop -  Is that basically the idea?  Do you combine with FA?




Big dip for sure, no stops...from memory TRY continued to fall and traded as low as 0.58 over the 3 or 4 weeks after i bought....a stop would of taken me out at exactly the wrong time - the bottom.

The FA at the time was compelling (again from memory) Troy's MC was about 10 million below its cash holdings (approx 50 mill), combine that with 2 small profitable (producing at a profit) gold mines and zero debt.

2008 those were the days. 

I found the old post, thread called "Companies with cash backing above MC" note the date 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13442&p=364875&viewfull=1#post364875


----------



## tinhat (24 April 2013)

I couldn't help myself from buying som SLR for 1.01 this morning. 

Did anyone else notice that NST seemed to stop trading on the commsec platform for a while there a bit after 11am this morning?


----------



## Intrinsic Value (24 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> I couldn't help myself from buying som SLR for 1.01 this morning.
> 
> Did anyone else notice that NST seemed to stop trading on the commsec platform for a while there a bit after 11am this morning?




Yeah looks like I jumped a little early. 1.01 has got to be a good long term play for SLR. As long as you have the nerve to hold if it dips further in the short term think you will do well.

I am thinking of buying some more just havent pulled the trigger. I am going to wait a couple more days and see which way it is going first. If it dips below the dollar mark it could drop much further pretty quickly.


----------



## nox (1 May 2013)

Bought into SLR @ 1.07 today and TRY @ 1.9 yesterday. Gold will inevitably continue to rally imo, the dip was just a combination of classic fear mongering and Syria being their wretched selves. Holding for the long term.


----------



## CanOz (2 May 2013)

One for the gold bugs....



> Jewelry Demand May Revive Gold, Mining Stocks: Chart of the Day
> 2013-05-01 04:00:01.1 GMT






> By David Wilson
> May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Growing demand for gold necklaces,
> watches and other jewelry may bolster the price of the precious
> metal and the shares of mining companies, according to Brian Yu,
> ...


----------



## noirua (20 May 2013)

Shareholders in gold miners are revolting – it’s time to buy - MoneyWeek
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/share-tips/money-morning-buy-gold-mining-stocks-63900


----------



## mr. jeff (20 May 2013)

There is no compelling evidence to suggest that it is the correct time to make an entry. 
Of course that doesn't mean you should go one way or another...

CAUTION!

Have a read of this thread over the last few months if you want to see what I mean - it has been a "good time to buy" in this falling market for a while apparently, but the hammering that has been dished out has been partly fair due to reversals in gold price. Although small miners have been hammered more than other sectors, that does not suggest that there should be a reversal for that reason either.

So there are the 2 main factors you would be hoping to change majorly over the short term in making an entry. At this stage they are not looking like changing significantly. 
Perhaps there is something over the horizon, but that is not the best way to treat money that is hard to get and harder to grow.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 May 2013)

OGC making headway.  SBM.  Might be time to take a look again, also at resources generally.  But it feels like selectivity will be extremely important.


----------



## Bushman (31 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> OGC making headway.  SBM.  Might be time to take a look again, also at resources generally.  But it feels like selectivity will be extremely important.




Lol, I took a gold trade just after the first POG fall too U$1320/oz - SLR, OGC, PRU and SAR. My thinking at the time was that it was a concerted attack on paper gold, with resultant flow on effect gold stocks, so it should be money for jam. Bought all four at below book. 

But I was way too early in catching this falling knife. SLR, in particular, has been belted around. 

The overnight jobless claim numbers means that the USD POG should benefit as high US unemployment means QE remains longer. 

The falling AUD vs the USD should also give Aussie producers a kicker. 

The final penny to drop will be the miners finally having some leverage over employees and suppliers re rampant cost inflation. 

So thinks are starting to play out well for Aussie gold miners.


----------



## Bintang (31 May 2013)

Bushman said:


> The falling AUD vs the USD should also give Aussie producers a kicker




In AUD the current old price is only 2.5% below its price in April just before the big take down.
Meanwhile Gold Mining shares are still down much more than that. For example NCM is still 26% below its April price just before the gold price plunge.
So its looking more and more like the Gold Miners are way oversold.


----------



## odds-on (5 June 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> I'm waiting patiently as i have been for 2 years since selling out of my gold stocks (was left holding 1 very cheap parcel) ~ TRY and NCM are the only 2 miners worth owning in my opinion and im not budging till i see $1.40 and $14.99
> 
> When knife catching you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.




Hi SC,

Did you catch the NCM knife? Currently trading at $14.35...

Cheers


----------



## So_Cynical (10 June 2013)

odds-on said:


> Hi SC,
> 
> Did you catch the NCM knife? Currently trading at $14.35...
> 
> Cheers




I've been on holidays...NCM now #1 on my buy list, but of course i don't have any spare cash, spent all my money on Filipino real estate.


----------



## stockGURU (26 June 2013)

The gold price has been hammered hard in 2013, and so have gold miners. The big question is, which companies can weather the storm if the price of gold declines further, and which ones may find themselves in trouble?

I like Troy Resources (TRY) because of their low cost of production and their impending takeover of Azimuth Resources (AZH). Azimuth has a lot of prospective tenements in Guyana as well as 1.65Moz in the ground at its flagship West Omai project, with more drilling underway.

I also think Newcrest Mining (NCM) has finally moved into oversold territory if you are looking long term, just on the basis of it's reserves. 

What companies have high production costs and may run into trouble should the price of gold decline further?


----------



## sreeve (2 July 2013)

A few charts on how the ASX gold stocks have been performing since the start of 2013.

A base 100 chart of the gold stocks in the ASX200:




and in percentage terms:



a closer look at some:


----------



## tinhat (14 August 2013)

Has anyone been buying gold miners? I haven't been doing any buying or selling for a few weeks now. I was short until Monday because I've been too caught up in other things. I sat down yesterday and wondered what to buy and MML popped up. I bought some at 2.19. The bloody stock went up 7% while I was thinking about it. Although a close above 2.40 probably would be a better signal to buy this stock looks like it is on a recovery. Just how much it recovers depends on what progress management make with the mine expansion. Management have consistently missed production targets over the past couple of years.

Anyone else buying gold miners? Which ones?


----------



## burglar (14 August 2013)

tinhat said:


> ... Anyone else buying gold miners? Which ones?




I think it is all about the dollar.


----------



## tinhat (19 August 2013)

I think it is also about gold price turn around and value. The AUD follows the gold price.

Bought some SLR yesterday.

So, no one buying gold mining stocks? Interesting.


----------



## Gundini (20 August 2013)

tinhat said:


> I think it is also about gold price turn around and value. The AUD follows the gold price.
> 
> Bought some SLR yesterday.
> 
> So, no one buying gold mining stocks? Interesting.




I have been buying Gold and Silver mining stocks tinhat but started some months ago, and got cut with a few falling knives on the way down. 75% of my portfolio would be in this sector if you include physical bullion holdings. 

I started purchasing around the $1400 POG AUD mark, so there was a time when I was suffering quite a bit of pain, and questioning my early entries, but a couple of averaging downs, and a few months later, things are looking better.

Would like to think that the bottom for POG is in, but as we all know September/October can be volatile months for any markets, and a test of the previous recent lows would not surprise. 

Either way, I am an investor with a medium timeframe, and looking for some large ROI's in the coming years.


----------



## mr. jeff (20 August 2013)

tinhat said:


> I think it is also about gold price turn around and value. The AUD follows the gold price.
> 
> Bought some SLR yesterday.
> 
> So, no one buying gold mining stocks? Interesting.




Last 2 weeks everyone was a buyer all of a sudden
The move is strong and has come off recent lows so may carry for a while.

PRU / EVR / PIR are what I bought.

PRU showing a nice move, EVR has to break 90c before I will consider getting excited.

Others to look at: RIM, IDC, SAR, BDR.


----------



## tinhat (20 August 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> Last 2 weeks everyone was a buyer all of a sudden
> The move is strong and has come off recent lows so may carry for a while.
> 
> PRU / EVR / PIR are what I bought.
> ...




Thanks Mr Jeff. I've only gone long in the past three trading days as I was short in the market for a while there and have been too distracted by life to get back in until now so am making entries with stop-losses now as this week is probably the only week I'll have for a while to keep a close eye on things. Thanks for the watch list.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 August 2013)

Gold stocks still the most likely to move going forward, imo.  I think they have another leg or two to go, but will happen more slowly this time.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Gold stocks still the most likely to move going forward, imo.  I think they have another leg or two to go, but will happen more slowly this time.




More slowly eh?  NCM, KCN


----------



## mthc4F (11 October 2013)

Is now the good timing to buy Gold Mining stocks? How do you think of Gold price trends? I feel as a result of Gold price fall, gold stocks have been bearish for quite long, there is the remarkable bottom pattern of them, but I am still in worry of fall of Gold not end yet.


----------



## orty53 (4 December 2013)

tinhat said:


> There is an active thread Gold Price - Where is it heading?, and an inactive thread "gold stocks", but I would like to discuss gold mining stocks. I know we discuss gold mining stocks a bit in the Gold Price thread but maybe they need their own thread.
> 
> At the moment I am holding MML and SLR. I bought both on the 8 March and currently am up 5% on MML and down 3.8% on SLR. I have NST on my watch list. I generally try and buy stocks which I feel are undervalued and which I think have sound fundamentals. Thus these three stocks meet my criteria. I try and buy on momentum. With these gold stocks though, I am looking to ride what might be either a relief rally (short lived???) or a turnaround. Time will tell. So I am speculating.




NCM is now producing gold at a price above gold's market value. So the price of will continue to fall until NCM announces a capital raising.


----------



## notting (19 December 2013)

Gold stocks did not collapse as much as they normally do against a 1% drop in the gold price and taper start.
May be time to go fishing.


----------



## notting (20 December 2013)

Gold was clobbered even harder last night and once again the US listed gold stocks reaction was relatively tame, when I saw what gold did I was expecting a blood bath.  
Not so.  
It's as if mothballing is priced in.


----------



## mr. jeff (23 December 2013)

I read an interesting article over the weekend about the taper being bullish for gold. 
The theory was: The US is starting to taper due to the economy picking up. 
If the economy is picking up there is growth. If the growth gets a bit too strong it may give rise to inflation. 
With all that extra money sloshing around from the Bernanke this could make (unpredictable?) inflation the next issue which would be very bullish for gold. Support for the argument was given with some charts of money volume and the gold price/volume. It appears that gold volume has massively increased over the past 6-12 months. 
Whether it has been smart money buying the gold - who knows.

If this theory proves accurate then now, when all the great producers are about 1/5th their previous prices would be the time to get in. 
So if you have goldies that are worth following, please post them so that we can have a bit of a look and look for the signs of a return of buying by some of the insto's. 

It will be seen by volume and rallies back to previous support levels with little wavering.

NST
RED
BDR
PVM
?
?


----------



## So_Cynical (24 December 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> I read an interesting article over the weekend about the taper being bullish for gold.
> The theory was: The US is starting to taper due to the economy picking up.
> If the economy is picking up there is growth. If the growth gets a bit too strong it may give rise to *inflation.*
> With all that extra money sloshing around from the Bernanke this could make (unpredictable?) *inflation* the next issue which would be very bullish for gold.




They (Euro & US) have to inflate away the debt, its inevitable and there is no way to get around it.

The bottom for the Aussie miners must be close now, TRY at near GFC lows with Gold at a 70% higher price than the GFC POG low.


----------



## my irish roots (26 February 2014)

Look at NMI. It has been flying...

 



tinhat said:


> There is an active thread Gold Price - Where is it heading?, and an inactive thread "gold stocks", but I would like to discuss gold mining stocks. I know we discuss gold mining stocks a bit in the Gold Price thread but maybe they need their own thread.
> 
> At the moment I am holding MML and SLR. I bought both on the 8 March and currently am up 5% on MML and down 3.8% on SLR. I have NST on my watch list. I generally try and buy stocks which I feel are undervalued and which I think have sound fundamentals. Thus these three stocks meet my criteria. I try and buy on momentum. With these gold stocks though, I am looking to ride what might be either a relief rally (short lived???) or a turnaround. Time will tell. So I am speculating.


----------



## my irish roots (26 February 2014)

Take a look at Northern Mining NMI, the chaps behind the company seem like serious players. Share price have been flying...



mr. jeff said:


> RRL is the most likely candidate to give a decent bounce, it is favoured by the larger money and is sitting above a key level at 4.25 - based on the pattern I am seeing of large gold stock buying late last week it may be that there is a change taking place in the sector. Could easily be wrong. Perhaps it may be prompted by the movement of uncertain money in Europe which may get more headlines over the coming week.
> 
> Other stocks of gold - BDR has fantastic grades and costs. NST has low reserves but is a successful driller, AQG has large resources and has been hammered, SLR as mentioned -> more to come.


----------



## Porper (26 February 2014)

my irish roots said:


> Take a look at Northern Mining NMI, the chaps behind the company seem like serious players. Share price have been flying...




Why do you say the "Chaps" are serious players ???????????? How do you come to this conclusion? Please explain or is it just a ramp?

Down 16.0% (sixteen) percent today.


----------



## Porper (25 September 2015)

Is Gold ready to make a serious move? Well, some stocks could be leading the way...SBM & EVN have broken out already. SBM has a nice "Rounding Bottom" in place on the weekly chart. Similar to a cup and handle but shows at lows. EVN has broken through resistance and has retested already...positive. ASL should break out of as pennant today...I think this is also in Tech A's thread. The XGD (Gold sub sector) has been making a basing pattern since mid 2013. It has yet to break out though. if it does...watch out!

If you want higher risk then DCN is worth a look. I like TRY too...that is definitely high risk/high reward though.

I am not a fundamentalist but there is a strong case for higher gold prices.

First of all the Chinese, India & Russia have been buying more gold than is being produced. Simple economics - supply & demand.

Gold is a natural hedge should world economies sink despite many analysts suggesting the correlation between the two has changed in modern times...doubt it.


----------



## sinner (25 September 2015)

Porper said:


> Is Gold ready to make a serious move? Well, some stocks could be leading the way...SBM & EVN have broken out already. SBM has a nice "Rounding Bottom" in place on the weekly chart. Similar to a cup and handle but shows at lows. EVN has broken through resistance and has retested already...positive. ASL should break out of as pennant today...I think this is also in Tech A's thread. The XGD (Gold sub sector) has been making a basing pattern since mid 2013. It has yet to break out though. if it does...watch out!
> 
> If you want higher risk then DCN is worth a look. I like TRY too...that is definitely high risk/high reward though.
> 
> ...




Hi Porper,

Good charts, I especially like the rising volume MA in the third one. A few names you mention I recall from the good old days of buying cashed up miners after the GFC like TRY (which I did like but I stopped following after the IAU deal) and SBM (which was always a bit of a dog at the time).

The name I wish everyone had told me back then was MML, as AFAIK they were the lowest cost producer in AU, not sure if it still holds true.

These days I treat gold mining stocks essentially like utilities stocks, inspired by the work of John Hussman who holds both gold miners and utilities in his total return fund (benchmark is US Gov Bonds) and treats them similarly.

Here's some backtesting from him in one of his invaluable Weekly Market Comments (and also highlights his ensemble techniques which are heavily inspired by computer science research):
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/gold.htm



> If you want to define a useful "trend" in gold stocks, you just don't get much useful information by looking at gold stock prices themselves. Since 1975, when the XAU has been above its level of 6 months earlier, it has continued to advance at an annual rate of 0.65%. When the XAU has been below its level of 6 months earlier, it has advanced at an annual rate of 0.73%. That's as close as you can get to an indicator being perfectly uninformative.
> 
> Gold bullion prices have somewhat better information. When the price of gold is higher than 6 months earlier, the XAU has followed by advancing at a 6.87% annual rate, on average. When the price of gold is lower than 6 months earlier, the XAU has declined at a -4.31% annual rate. While that seems like a big performance difference, it is statistically insignificant because gold stock prices are wildly volatile. These average performances are just overwhelmed by that volatility to be of any practical use.
> 
> ...




CPI 6 month momentum: Up
30Y bond yields 6 month momentum: Up
NAPM PMI: 51.1 (August reading)
Gold:XAU ratio: 24.04 (lol wow)

Assuming the above conditions hold true for the future, we're still waiting on NAPM PMI to fall below 50 for the full signal. I think a 10-15% allocation in a total return portfolio on such a signal is appropriate (given the high volatility of gold equities relative to utilities stocks and the bond market in general), otherwise, 5% or less.

Keep in mind, the above are for US markets, but my initial testing showed essentially same stuff here.


----------



## Porper (25 September 2015)

sinner said:


> Hi Porper,
> 
> These days I treat gold mining stocks essentially like utilities stocks, inspired by the work of John Hussman who holds both gold miners and utilities in his total return fund (benchmark is US Gov Bonds) and treats them similarly.
> 
> ...




Nice link thanks sinner, makes for interesting reading. Not sure I understand some of it mind you...ensemble techniques especially.


----------



## sinner (25 September 2015)

Porper said:


> Nice link thanks sinner, makes for interesting reading. Not sure I understand some of it mind you...ensemble techniques especially.




Basically you can use computers to classify stuff! That is how your spam filter works. It has a bunch of training data (preclassified spam and not spam emails) and then uses one form of classifier or another (based on the training data) to classify each incoming email as spam or not spam.

Ensemble learning is one of a whole bunch of different machine learning techniques, you can learn more about it here if you're interested

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning

In this case, it's really just taking the concept of backtesting to the next level, where you also allow the computer to make inferences (classifications  ) based on the relationships, patterns, trends etc that it might uncover.


----------



## greggles (20 June 2018)

Found this research on ASX-listed gold miners on another forum and thought some here might find it useful.


----------



## Knobby22 (20 January 2020)

Trump wants a gold bug to run the Treasury! She doesn't believe in fiat currencies and wants them tied back to gold.

*Trump Nominates Gold Advocate Judy Shelton for the Fed*

Imagine if she got through the process, heaven for all you goldbugs!


----------



## noirua (28 April 2020)

MEGADO
The Company is proposing to list on the ASX in Q4, CY2020 via an Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Megado has a portfolio of high-quality gold exploration assets in Southern and Western Ethiopia covering 800km² of existing or applied for tenements.
https://megadogold.com/
-
*Megado Gold Ltd: Unlocking the mystery of Ethiopia*
https://www.boardroom.media/article...e-mystery-of-Ethiopia-April-14th-2020-1-20-19


----------



## noirua (23 September 2020)




----------



## fergee (23 September 2020)

noirua said:


>




Watched this yesterday, good content imo. 
Have to say Kitco gets really good hosts, they let their guests speak and ask them really good questions. 👍


----------



## noirua (29 September 2020)




----------



## noirua (25 October 2020)




----------



## finicky (16 December 2020)

I pretty much made my mind up on gold and gold stocks years ago but when I am looking for a bit of general guidance this guy is good, he's quite cautious in his commentary and never lets hope sway his view.

*Gold & Gold Stocks Grinding Out a Bottom*

"History shows us that there are some instances in which Gold grinds out a bottom.

We compared the performance of Gold following interim peaks that we deemed similar to the August 2020 peak. That includes the peaks in 2003, 2004, 2006 and early 2009.
The analogs argue Gold could grind out a bottom over the coming weeks and work its way higher in the first half of 2021.




The takeaway is that a sustained rebound will require more time, which does not mean we should abandon our constructive views on the sector.
The weight of the evidence (technical, fundamental, sentiment) argues that the correction in Gold and gold stocks is nearly complete.
My guess is that GDX and GDXJ will form a double bottom over the days ahead.
It’s much easier to chase momentum and buy when everyone is doing it. It’s more difficult to buy at the end of a correction and even during a bull market. But that’s where we are.
The present is an opportunity to buy quality at a much better price and value than several months ago."


----------



## finicky (17 December 2020)

I might sling something at them after a crash. His prior 2020 picks took off after the March WuFlu crash. There's a couple missing from the list he gave in the DFA podcast and Aurumin (AUN) has been snuck in. They're not all gold stocks you'll notice but my last post on this subject died in the beginners lounge

*Tony Locantro's Top Picks for 2021*
2020-12-17

Alto Capital's Tony Locantro gives his assessment of 2020 and offers his pick of stocks to watch in 2021. They include Metal Bank (ASX:MBK), Aurumin (ASX:AUN), Godolphin Resources (ASX:GRL), Mako Gold (ASX:MKG), Hammer Metals (ASX:HMX), Dampier Gold (ASXAU), Nyrada Inc (ASX:NYR), Adalta (ASX:1AD) and Exopharm (ASX:EX1).


----------



## noirua (10 January 2021)

Gold price loses sheen as US govt bond yields shoot up
					

The yellow metal lost some of its shine on Friday as gold slumped on the bullion market by over 3.4%, as the US presidency risks faded away and the...




					kalkinemedia.com


----------



## wayneL (20 January 2021)

finicky said:


> I might sling something at them after a crash. His prior 2020 picks took off after the March WuFlu crash. There's a couple missing from the list he gave in the DFA podcast and Aurumin (AUN) has been snuck in. They're not all gold stocks you'll notice but my last post on this subject died in the beginners lounge
> 
> *Tony Locantro's Top Picks for 2021*
> 2020-12-17
> ...




Hammer Metals comes through. Took some small positions on Tony's analysis, including HMX.

Nice woodie on the announcement and as ever, with the benefit of hindsight, wish I had bought more


----------



## frugal.rock (20 January 2021)

wayneL said:


> Hammer Metals comes through. Took some small positions on Tony's analysis, including HMX.
> 
> Nice woodie on the announcement and as ever, with the benefit of hindsight, wish I had bought more



Am personally waiting on MBK Metal Bank to get past its slight supply hurdle.
A little more demand should fix that.

Have bought plenty to start with, even more than @finicky apparently.


----------



## wayneL (20 January 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Am personally waiting on MBK Metal Bank to get past its slight supply hurdle.
> A little more demand should fix that.
> 
> Have bought plenty to start with, even more than @finicky apparently.



A couple of other picks have gone alright too, just on the quiet.

Glad I happened across the Tones 😊


----------



## frugal.rock (23 January 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I note the money is leaving all forms of Crypto in droves.... gold prices expected to be back on the rising agenda soon enough.



This was my comment  yesterday! (BC8 Thread)
My comment today is, I note, the money is pouring back into crypto.
From nearly every crypto tanking yesterday, every crypto now is green and on the  fast  rise again.
Bizarre.
With crypto flip flopping so much, I  am officially afflicted with gold price bipolar disorder.


----------



## noirua (21 February 2021)

February 19 2021


----------



## finicky (3 March 2021)

A couple of out performers in my gold stocks today: RMS, WAF.
Might be worth a thought in the inevitable pull-back - or continuing intermediate gold bear trend.

A couple of under performers too:
BC8, DCN
My arbitrary interpretation of these: 
BC8 is still consolidating its 400% rise from Mar to July 2020. 
DCN is still forming a base after all its turbulence - M.D of DCN bought a million shares on market a couple of months ago near the current price @ 0.35


----------



## finicky (12 March 2021)

Well worth a read on gold stocks with some reccos and will be proven dramatically right imo. I've often judged James Gerrish to be astute, although he seems like a cold type but surprised he is emphatic about gold stocks. I've been tempted by NCM too for the first time but don't like the New Guinea exposure - they ruin everything over there, corrupt cronyist cargo cultists who want it all for nothing now.

*Is Gold a Buy Here? 

*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 May 2021)

NEM Newmont haș taken off like a rocket tonight in the US.

Up > 1% in early trade.

Good for my Golders on the ASX tomorrow. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> NEM Newmont haș taken off like a rocket tonight in the US.
> 
> Up > 1% in early trade.
> 
> ...



Correction: Up and down like a bride's nightie. ( Do brides wear nighties anymore ).

gg


----------



## rederob (20 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Correction: Up and down like a bride's nightie. ( Do brides wear nighties anymore ).
> 
> gg



Not if they are exposed to the gold market.
NEM's up and down action might suggest naked options?


----------



## noirua (12 June 2021)




----------



## finicky (19 June 2021)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

For those of you who missed my many comments on PMs yesterday because they only look at my original tweets,not replies,I remain very bullish gold & silver & the miners.I expect a strong summer into fall.Targets remain gold $2500,silver $45-$50,GDX $60,GDXJ $100,SIL $75 & SILJ $35


----------



## finicky (23 June 2021)

Fwiw,  Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold is one of the few I follow for guidance on the gold price. Listening to too many pundits is just confusing and pointless to someone with LT conviction. He sent this to free subscribers tonight:

"*Gold has resumed the correction that began last August*. A few weeks ago I had hope that the remainder of the correction could be more of a bullish consolidation. That appears unlikely now.

However, bigger picture, Gold is still building the handle on the 9-year cup and handle pattern. Subscribers know I've never expected it to breakout this year. A 2-year long handle is perfectly normal. Or an 18-month long handle.  

In that bigger picture, that bird's eye view, this handle is a bullish consolidation. Heck, Gold could test $1575 and that would not change the technical setup.


----------



## finicky (11 October 2021)




----------



## Sean K (17 November 2021)

Gold stocks retracing to what should be support in a newly forming upward channel. Looking to a bounce in the blue circle, all things being equal.


----------



## noirua (17 January 2022)

December 2021


----------



## finicky (13 February 2022)

Between the Lines Finance summary of some gold miners' December Quarterlies.
He's almost swayed me into giving up on Regis (RRL). He's cool on Ramelius due to hub and spoke model with the long trucking distances impacted by labour (drivers?) shortage due to border closures. Sounds a bit reassuring about Northern Star (NST). Dacian doesn't even rate a mention these days. I've got a couple of 'A' performers: SSR and WAF but my duds are dragging the p/f down. I invest most hope into my explorers to be galavanized by the gold price in the future. That and discoveries of course.


----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)

Thank goodness for my gold shares that are up again in the pre-market on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Rises have taken all but two into positive territory and one now up nearly 30% after being down two weeks ago.  Non gold shares not to be mentioned as they are under attack.


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Thank goodness for my gold shares that are up again in the pre-market on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Rises have taken all but two into positive territory and one now up nearly 30% after being down two weeks ago.  Non gold shares not to be mentioned as they are under attack.




Gold having a short term hit.  My overall thesis on gold going up was the chart, geopolitics and money printing. I wonder how long it will last. I hope for Europe's sake, Putin does as I expect and he ends up negotiating ownership of the eastern side of Ukraine who are Slav/Russians, and it stops there. The western side of Ukraine will not give up so easily. But, if NATO/EU allow this, this emboldens Xi to take Taiwan by exactly the same game play.


----------



## Telamelo (24 February 2022)

OGC gold & copper miner shot up 9% today (released very good results) but feel that it's still way undervalued imo  

Feel that $3+ achievable short term given gold & copper price surging 

Please DYOR as always


----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Gold having a short term hit.  My overall thesis on gold going up was the chart, geopolitics and money printing. I wonder how long it will last. I hope for Europe's sake, Putin does as I expect and he ends up negotiating ownership of the eastern side of Ukraine who are Slav/Russians, and it stops there. The western side of Ukraine will not give up so easily. But, if NATO/EU allow this, this emboldens Xi to take Taiwan by exactly the same game play.



Unfortunately there is a full scale war in Ukraine at this moment. There is a good chance Ukraine will surrender. The airport neat Kyiv has been bombed so only way out is via minor airports or fleeing over the border.


----------



## Sean K (24 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Unfortunately there is a full scale war in Ukraine at this moment. There is a good chance Ukraine will surrender. The airport neat Kyiv has been bombed so only way out is via minor airports or fleeing over the border.




Yes, been watching it all day on multiple channels. I can't go to bed tonight not watching this unfold. It's much worse than I thought it would be. The consequences of Russia taking over most, if not all, of Ukraine have international geopolitical significance.


----------



## mullokintyre (11 April 2022)

With Gold back up over 2600 bucks AUD and ounce, and local gold prodiucers starting to report quarterly results, there should be some pretty good free cash flow statements coming out of producers this month.
Would expect to see some action in most of the gold stocks (even DCN and SBM!) this week.
Mick


----------



## Telamelo (11 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> With Gold back up over 2600 bucks AUD and ounce, and local gold prodiucers starting to report quarterly results, there should be some pretty good free cash flow statements coming out of producers this month.
> Would expect to see some action in most of the gold stocks (even DCN and SBM!) this week.
> Mick



Agree Mick.. I'm liking near term gold producer's such as TUL and TIE respectively as believe both offer great upside potential (moreso with rising aud gold price).

Cheers tela


----------



## Telamelo (11 April 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Agree Mick.. I'm liking near term gold producer's such as TUL and TIE respectively as believe both offer great upside potential (moreso with rising aud gold price).
> 
> Cheers tela





Sean K said:


> expand...



Timely good news just released:

"Tietto *TIE* Delivers Maiden Measured Gold Resource at Abujar"

DYOR .. Cheers tela


----------



## finicky (11 April 2022)




----------



## Joe Blow (11 April 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Timely good news just released:
> 
> "Tietto *TIE* Delivers Maiden Measured Gold Resource at Abujar"
> 
> DYOR .. Cheers tela




No need to spruik stocks in the gold thread. Let's keep this thread for the discussion of the gold price please.


----------



## finicky (11 April 2022)

Isn't this a gold *stocks* thread?


----------



## Telamelo (11 April 2022)

Joe Blow said:


> No need to spruik stocks in the gold thread. Let's keep this thread for the discussion of the gold price please.



Sure I understand what you mean @Joe Blow so my apologies - so just to clarify that this current thread "Gold Mining Stocks" we can't discuss nor mention any Gold stocks whatsoever correct ?

P.S. Yep I understand/accept that other thread "Gold price - Where is it headed ?" is only to discuss Gold price action/chart analysis etc.


----------



## Joe Blow (11 April 2022)

Sorry, my mistake. I had a brain spasm. Yes, you can discuss gold stocks in this thread. I thought this was the gold price thread for some reason. Please carry on.


----------



## Telamelo (11 April 2022)

Joe Blow said:


> Sorry, my mistake. I had a brain spasm. Yes, you can discuss gold stocks in this thread. I thought this was the gold price thread for some reason. Please carry on.



All good @Joe Blow as I appreciate your reply thanks.

Cheers tela


----------



## finicky (19 April 2022)

BtL sounds enthusiastic but he urges caution about the Quarterly reports coming up. This applies especially for W.A miners and "dog" goldies (RRL, RSG, DCN)
Gold stock charts looking great this last week he thinks. GDXJ moving well. He's taken out a double short etf on the Nasdaq with a medium term view as long as the picture maintains - code: QID - not advice. Other gold stocks mentioned:  SLR, PRU, WAF, SSR, B2Gold, NST.


----------



## divs4ever (19 April 2022)

i was going to mention BC8 last week with the announcement it had bought two mines from NST , but after reading the projects bought are both under 'care and maintenance ' when researching over the weekend   , i am glad i escaped the egg all over my face .

 still worthy of a CAREFUL look now the share price has come back down ( but i will still be waiting for some more AIS   @ 11 cents )

 DYOR

 ( i do not hold BC8 , but do hold NST )


----------



## finicky (19 April 2022)

@divs4ever yeah, I almost posted on BC8 today. The placement was @ 0.55 and I saw it get down to 0.56 at one point. They've put back the date of building a plant for the Kal East project due to labour shortages and higher costs but trying to keep market's interest alive with the purchases from NST. It will take a lot of time so their orphan stage continues. I doubt I will add but it might be an opportunity for the patient.


----------



## finicky (25 April 2022)

BtL has been trimming some performing gold stocks: SLR, WAF, SSR and LYL (mine services). Anticipates a likely pullback in gold itself - maybe to US$1,900 - and some poor gold miner Qtrlys this week.
Has maintained his double short on the Nasdaq (QID) and taken out a double short on the ASX200 (BBOZ)









						Between the Lines Finance is creating Investment Research and Analysis | Patreon
					

Become a patron of Between the Lines Finance today: Get access to exclusive content and experiences on the world’s largest membership platform for artists and creators.




					www.patreon.com


----------



## Telamelo (25 April 2022)

Bought Westgold WGX @ $1.75 last Friday  (noting $100M placement to sophisticated investor's done @ $2.10 last month).









						Do insto investors expect a turnaround in Westgold?
					

Do insto investors expect a turnaround in Westgold?




					www.marketindex.com.au
				




DYOR .. Cheers tela


----------



## divs4ever (25 April 2022)

finicky said:


> @divs4ever yeah, I almost posted on BC8 today. The placement was @ 0.55 and I saw it get down to 0.56 at one point. They've put back the date of building a plant for the Kal East project due to labour shortages and higher costs but trying to keep market's interest alive with the purchases from NST. It will take a lot of time so their orphan stage continues. I doubt I will add but it might be an opportunity for the patient.



BC8 looks like too far in the future ( to be a div. payer ) for me  , but if things change  so might my decision 

 now IF the NST disposals had of been currently operating mines  then my decision gets harder ( throw in some newbies so they can learn some skills from the veterans  ,  maybe  even  get a savvy guy  well practiced at emergency work-arounds )

 but moth-balled hints at the best staff are working elsewhere


----------



## Telamelo (5 May 2022)

Great to see our AUD Gold price surging higher tonight @ $2,656 +2.41%






						Gold Price in Australian Dollar (AUD) - Live Price and Historical Chart | GoldBroker.com
					

Gold price in AUD (Australian Dollar). Historical chart and real-time quote (live price per gram, ounce, kilo) on the LBMA, yearly performance in Australian Dollar.




					goldbroker.com
				




P.S. Bought more WGX earlier this week below $1.50 (to average down)  as well as TUL below 0.585c


----------



## divs4ever (5 May 2022)

have been missing my gold stock targets 

 BTW  is the Aussie gold price because the dollar is sliding 

good luck


----------



## noirua (6 May 2022)

A savage reversal in the states has seen gold shares tumble together with Bitcoin, Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ today. All currencies fell sharply against the US$ - the Aussie and UK£ fell 2%.


----------



## Telamelo (6 May 2022)

noirua said:


> A savage reversal in the states has seen gold shares tumble together with Bitcoin, Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ today. All currencies fell sharply against the US$ - the Aussie and UK£ fell 2%.



AUD Gold price bucked the trend closing higher @ $2,638 +1.69%  along with oil price around US $109


----------



## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

noirua said:


> A savage reversal in the states has seen gold shares tumble together with Bitcoin, Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ today. All currencies fell sharply against the US$ - the Aussie and UK£ fell 2%.



 looks like a 'flight to safety ' to me  ( to the US dollar , as crazy as that seems )

 but i could be wrong 

 be careful of 'dead cat ' bounces


----------



## Telamelo (6 May 2022)

Took advantage of buying more bargains this morning.. adding more TUL, WGX and GCY respectively


----------



## divs4ever (6 May 2022)

am looking , looking looking  ,
 have  AIS ( @ 10c  ) is in the market but more than 2 million shares from the pointy bit 

 and thinking of cancelling the TBR order ( not dropping enough )

 am still considering placing an order for extra EVN ( say $3.70  would be tolerable , but not exciting )

 good luck


----------



## Telamelo (10 May 2022)

Meanwhile our AUD Gold price is trading at a very healthy $2,671 so doesn't make any sense the "sell down" across many Aussie gold stocks.


----------



## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

my  gold miner buying day was yesterday 

 added to my holdings in AIS , EVN  and WGX  

 sent some cash over to try for some $8 NST tomorrow 

 logic seems to have vanished from this market 

 cheers


----------



## mullokintyre (11 May 2022)

I have bought into WAF, SSR and PRU this morning.
Gold in AUD is almost exactly where it was when this latest rout started,  so anything that has fallen 15% or more is in my buying zone.
Mick


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 June 2022)

noirua said:


> A savage reversal in the states has seen gold shares tumble together with Bitcoin, Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ today. All currencies fell sharply against the US$ - the Aussie and UK£ fell 2%.





Telamelo said:


> Meanwhile our AUD Gold price is trading at a very healthy $2,671 so doesn't make any sense the "sell down" across many Aussie gold stocks.






divs4ever said:


> my  gold miner buying day was yesterday
> 
> added to my holdings in AIS , EVN  and WGX
> 
> ...



So,

Gold is at $AUD2568. 

My expectation is that the USD will appreciate over the next month against other currencies, against the AUD to a lesser extent, and that Gold will touch $US2000 or more. 

I sold out of my Gold stocks last month, and am more than a little out of the loop as to where the Goldies are up to or down to atm. 

May I restart this discussion and ask for members 3 best large cap and 3 best small cap on the ASX. 

And any other general comments on labor shortages, supply problems affecting the miners. 

gg


----------



## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

well most gold MINERS are trending down on rising cost fears ( and staff shortages , etc etc )

 the USD AND precious metal prices are heavily manipulated ( still )

 the 'best ' will depend on your view  of investment strategies  some like EVN are swapping assets ( selling and buying ) to help contain costs  aiming for 'spoke and hub ' in some areas  , some like AIS and NST  are trying to expand via JVs and acquisition of cash-poor juniors

 the majority of ( successful ) gold miners i hold are going the expansion route ( in preference to further exploration on existing tenements ) but that is  mostly a new strategy path taken after i had bought in , to counter-balance this i am more preferring EVN as i think cost-cutting and waiting for the credit-crunch FIRST is the better option ( despite the fact i am personally nibbling when prices are attractive , in all of them  )

since the majority of my holding are trying to expand , past performance is no guide to future outcomes ( one overly-ambitious buy can unravel it all )


----------



## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

now in MY opinion  my best three gold stocks  , don't even mine gold as their primary income 

they are in  no particular order ZIM ( best known for platinum ) , OZL ( 'free-carried ' , best known as a copper miner ) and MCR ( 'free-carried ' ) who dug up enough gold to restart their nickel operations 

 courtesy of the latest MCR quarterly 
APPENDIX 2: Gold Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
Gold Mineral Resources as at 30 June 2021
RESOURCES
MEASURED INDICATED INFERRED TOTAL
Tonnes Au (g/t) Tonnes Au (g/t) Tonnes Au (g/t) Tonnes Au (g/t) Ounces
West Oliver 48,000 1.2 478,000 1.5 105,000 2.4 631,000 1.6 32,400
Bass 8,000 1.9 222,000 1.9 434,000 2.0 664,000 2.0 42,500
Hronsky 101,000- 1.8 134,000 1.8 70,000 1.3 305,000 1.1 11,100
Darlek 87,000 2.1 603,000 1.2 923,000 1.0 1,613,000 1.1 58,700
Flinders - - 453,000 1.4 389,000 1.3 842,000 1.4 36,600
Hillview - - - - 578,000 1.1 578,000 1.1 20,600
TOTAL 244,000 1.8 1,890,000 1.4 2,499,000 1.3 4,633,000 1.4 201,900
Notes:
• Figures have been rounded and hence may not add up exactly to the given totals.
• Resources are inclusive of Reserves reported at 0.5 g/t Au cut-off.
• Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 tonnes, 0.1 g/t Au grade and 100oz.
The information in this report that relates to gold Mineral Resources is based on information compiled by Mr Robert Hartley who is an employee of Mincor
Resources NL and is a Member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Mr Hartley has sufficient experience relevant to the style of
mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration, and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012
Edition of the “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves”. Mr Hartley consents to the inclusion in this report
of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.
Gold Ore Reserves as at 30 June 2021
RESERVES
PROVED PROBABLE TOTAL
Tonnes Au (g/t) Tonnes Au (g/t) Tonnes Au (g/t) Ounces
Darlek 24,000 2.4 70,000 2.0 94,000 2.1 6,400
TOTAL 24,000 2.4 70,000 2.0 94,000 2.1 6,400
Notes:
• Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 tonnes, 0.1 g/t Au grade and 100oz.
• Differences may occur due to rounding.
• For further details, please see Appendix 5: JORC Code, 2012 Edition – Table Report Template Sections 1, 2, 3 and 4.

 now a small cap. i do not hold  that is interesting is SVL  which has a nice little resource in the underground project ( i have no idea if they can get such a complicated play into a profitable producer  , but i admire their ambition )


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> now in MY opinion  my best three gold stocks  , don't even mine gold as their primary income
> 
> they are in  no particular order ZIM ( best known for platinum ) , OZL ( 'free-carried ' , best known as a copper miner ) and MCR ( 'free-carried ' ) who dug up enough gold to restart their nickel operations
> 
> ...




Divs, can I recommend you learn how to do a screenshot and paste up the picture. I couldn't make heads or tails of what you've put in here until I looked it up myself.  

And, when I looked at it clearly, they only have 200K ounces of gold? It's a gold play?


----------



## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

my browser is very picky  on screen shots of ASX anns ( sometimes it works , sometimes it formats properly , and sometimes it's just a mess )

 MCR   is better known as a nickel ( and occasional cobalt ) play 

 now IF gold was selling at a realistic price  , maybe that would be different 

 OZL started off as a gold play ( when i first bought in  ) and become better known as a copper miner ( with a gold co-product )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> now in MY opinion  my best three gold stocks  , don't even mine gold as their primary income
> 
> they are in  no particular order ZIM ( best known for platinum ) , OZL ( 'free-carried ' , best known as a copper miner ) and MCR ( 'free-carried ' ) who dug up enough gold to restart their nickel operations
> 
> ...



Now @divs4ever I have an uncanny way of predicting the future and I figured you would put some sesquipedalian peripatetic screed such as above in answer to my request ...



Garpal Gumnut said:


> May I restart this discussion and ask for members *3 best large cap and 3 best small cap on the ASX.*
> 
> And any other general comments on labor shortages, supply problems affecting the miners.
> 
> gg





Now I will ask you again, and without learning how to take screenshots which may harm you, nor to dazzle me with tonnes nor disturb me with appendices to state *3 big ones and 3 little ones. GOLD ONES.* and some comments on labor shortages and supply problems.

gg


----------



## noirua (5 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> So,
> 
> Gold is at $AUD2568.
> 
> ...



I'm holding a lot of gold stocks and seven are below the price paid:
Gold Royalty AMEX: GROY - https://goldroyalty.com/
SSR Mining ASX: SSR - http://www.ssrmining.com/
Agnico Eagle NYSE: AEM - https://www.agnicoeagle.com/English/home/default.aspx
Franco Nevada NYSE: FNV - https://www.franco-nevada.com/Home/default.aspx
Newmont NYSE: NEM - https://newmont.com/
Barrick NYSE: GOLD - https://www.barrick.com/English/home/default.aspx
K92 TSX: KNT - https://k92mining.com/
Newcrest ASX: NCM - https://www.newcrest.com/
Zijin HK: 2899 - https://www.zijinmining.com/ - https://www.zijinmining.com/about/About-Us.htm
Zhaojin HK: 1818 - https://en.gold-zhaoyuan.cn/
Taung HK: 0621 - https://www.taunggold.com/
Lingbau HK: 3330 - http://www.lbgold.com/


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 June 2022)

Thanks @noirua 

I have below a chart of PMGOLD candlesticks ( a proxy for POG in $AUD with the 3 largest gold stocks by market cap in nicely coloured lines and how they have fared since the outbreak of Russian hegemony, the tech correction and the general hullabaloo in which the world finds itself since early March 2022.



All seem to have followed the movement of PMGOLD in varying degrees with NCM doing the best, though lower, and EVN and NST 15-20% lower than 3 months ago. 

Large gold miners seem not to do be doing that well atm., at least these three. 

I wonder is this replicated throughout the sector?

gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza (5 June 2022)

Can I suggest  this magnificent maiden just listed on the NYSE

In only 2 days she is in the TOP TEN Energy companies in all of the NYSE




 As you can see
She has hit Blue sky on only her second day



*Who Needs the Rest?


My Apologies
I did not notice that you were all searching for "Fools Gold"*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 June 2022)

I then went to the 3 lowest gold stocks on the ASX by market cap and found CTR, AUE, and WSR. 

I left out ATM as they are Indonesian and priced over $1 and couldn't make the price out for head nor tail, nor what they actually did. 

Again comparing to PMGOLD it looks like a bad dart pick with PMGOLD dropping about 1% and the other 3 taking a hiding at 20-40% loss.




I wonder if this is typical of the small gold sector at present.

gg


----------



## mullokintyre (5 June 2022)

My three biggest and best:
B2G on NYSE or SSR on TSX ( can't choose between the two)
NST in OZ.
PRU in OZ.
My three Smaller ones, 
CHZ (in the hope it gets swallowed  like OKU did).
DCN, because it has fallen a lot, is volatile, and  responds dramatically to changes in the gold price.
TIE, because its construction program seems well on track and should make a motza when it starts  production using the highest grade ore.
Worth about as much as what it cost ya.
Mick


----------



## Sean K (5 June 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Can I suggest  this magnificent maiden just listed on the NYSE
> 
> In only 2 days she is in the TOP TEN Energy companies in all of the NYSE
> 
> ...




Woodside is gold! lol


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 June 2022)

I then compared 3 small to stocks priced in the mid to high $0.09's as this has been profitable for me in the past in trading materials. 

They all had a market cap around the $50m. mark, give or take a mill or three.  GBZ  ERM and TGM.

Again comparing them to PMGOLD. 



They are all down 25%. 

Now these are pretty much dart picks. 

But I just wonder with the rising of the AUD against the USD, or labor shortages or supply chain/assay delays or just whatever. 

Are gold stocks worth avoiding atm?

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 June 2022)

Just for those who believe in Oil as being liquid Gold. @Sean K @Captain_Chaza 

WDS compared to PMGOLD over 3 months. 

Not that good really considering Russia's hegemonic warfart.

Oh and apologies to @divs4ever for an intemperate reply, I enjoy your posts. 




gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza (5 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> Woodside is gold! lol



Black Gold!
White Gold is Lithium!
and then there is always
Fool's Gold!


----------



## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I then went to the 3 lowest gold stocks on the ASX by market cap and found CTR, AUE, and WSR.
> 
> I left out ATM as they are Indonesian and priced over $1 and couldn't make the price out for head nor tail, nor what they actually did.
> 
> ...



ATM , think of them as a micro BHP ,  a little bit of coal ,  a little bit of nickel  smelted into ferro-nickel , some gold mined  , refined  and sold in 'gold boutiques ' and vending machines and part owned by the government  and VERY thinly traded ( in Australia ) , tries to value -add ( unlike Australia )

 EVN and NST aren't doing so well  currently , unless you bought them under a $1 like i did initially  ( but have 'averaged up ' since ) i think the punters fear they have over-expanded , and they may be correct  , unless the gold price climbs permanently above $US 2000

 am hoping ( most of )the gold-producers i hold  survive  the wave of higher costs and finally go onto better things  , but as long as 'money ' is cheap and the printing and short-selling is unlimited  , that might be a long wait 

 the small players i am unwilling currently to 'dabble , hope and wait '   if they aren't making money now  , i fear the others will struggle as credit tightens ( at least for the mid-term ) the best you can hope for is they get swallowed by a well run mid-tier , that pays in scrip 

 cheers


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## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just for those who believe in Oil as being liquid Gold. @Sean K @Captain_Chaza
> 
> WDS compared to PMGOLD over 3 months.
> 
> ...



i have a thick hide , the legacy of being perpetually naughty  in younger days 

 cheers


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## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Black Gold!
> White Gold is Lithium!
> and then there is always
> Fool's Gold!



  well if we aren't talking about AU  gold ( the element ) you could probably  name any commodity Russia used to sell on the open market ( but only sells to 'friendly nations ' now ) that includes oil  ,coal , gas , nickel ,iron ( although they ship plenty of steel as well ) the PGM group , aluminum  , because Russia was exporting at least 5% of those ( often many times that ) add in the falling US dollar ( compared to most commodities ) .
 the elephant in the room is REE  which China has a choke-hold on , if China was to be indifferent ( to 'non-friendly ' nations ) suddenly a lot of 'hi-tech' devices are going to have reduced efficiency or insane price tags  , higher cost and less bang-for-the-buck  make many premium products less desirable


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## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I then compared 3 small to stocks priced in the mid to high $0.09's as this has been profitable for me in the past in trading materials.
> 
> They all had a market cap around the $50m. mark, give or take a mill or three.  GBZ  ERM and TGM.
> 
> ...



 well i am being very cautious ( but watchful )   and if i miss the bottom  , i have some already  ( at a reasonable price )

 Q. can we ( each of us ) move quick enough if there is a 'credit crunch '  liable trigger a wave of forced selling ??

 ( because if previous crashes are a guide  , everything gets sold down initially to cover outstanding debts , and margin calls and such )


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## divs4ever (5 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> well if we aren't talking about AU  gold ( the element ) you could probably  name any commodity Russia used to sell on the open market ( but only sells to 'friendly nations ' now ) that includes oil  ,coal , gas , nickel ,iron ( although they ship plenty of steel as well ) the PGM group , aluminum  , because Russia was exporting at least 5% of those ( often many times that ) add in the falling US dollar ( compared to most commodities ) .



WHY ?? 

 because these will not be sold on Western Commodity exchanges ( so the contracts on Russian commodities  will not be manipulated so easy  )  ( and they will NOT be settled in US dollars either )


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## eskys (6 June 2022)

Gold slowly edging up since open


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 June 2022)

I've been watching Gold Stocks falling for some time, see above. 

My sentiment is changing. 

GOR and EVN look quite tasty atm. 

I have little idea of their fundamentals but there has been brisk selling and buying over the last few days when the capitalist system as we know it was supposed to end. 

They are miners so are subject to worker and supply chain constipation. Particularly the former. 

gg


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## divs4ever (21 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've been watching Gold Stocks falling for some time, see above.
> 
> My sentiment is changing.
> 
> ...



 the Capitalist system ( in it's current form ) probably broke completely  in September 2019   , and they will continue lying about it for as long as they can to maximize the wealth transfer 

 so i notice GOR   nearing the range i should CONSIDER if to top up  , EVN needs to drop another 50 cents ( ish ) for me


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## Sean K (12 August 2022)

Seems like a fair bit of M&A is in the wind out west. Next will probably be the merger of GMD and SBM by the looks.


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