# The recession has started?



## Smurf1976 (2 August 2008)

Anecdotally, I'm starting to see rather a lot of evidence that suggests a recession or at least a serious slowdown is here and now.

Examples:

At work I deal with lots of contractors, for which we are generally a small customer. All of a sudden none of them are busy. All these are doing some sort of physical work (as opposed to consultants etc).

Contractor 1. I phoned and the person who took the call openly admitted they had no work on. The started on our job the next day.

Contractor 2. Has been flat out historically and we've always had to wait weeks or months. They have now fully caught up with all our work and asked if we had anything else coming up.

Contractor 3 (self employed). Normally hard to get as it's specialised work. Was at home when I phoned and he offered to do the job 2 business days after the call. 

Contractor 4. Again fairly hard to get and specialised. They're doing the work on the first day I suggested.

Contractor 5. They're doing a major job at the moment and staff on site are quite visibly going as slow as they can get away with. And we're now into the thrid foreman on this job in roughly 4 months. It turns out they have no work on once it's finished and staff have been leaving.

Buying a new vehicle (for business use). Was put straight through to the manager, not just a salesperson, who without asking offered to do anything possible to help with prompt delivery etc. It's just a ute so nothing special and we've never got service like that before. And they're the only dealer of that make in town so it's not like there's fierce competition.

Vehicle service. I've booked 3 in recently and in all cases was able to get it done straight away. Normally I'd expect a week or two wait.

And the one that prompted me to post this. I went shopping today. Normally I don't do supermarket shopping on Saturday to avoid the crowd and queues. Bottom line is that I walked past every shop in the shopping centre and couldn't find a single one that looked busy. The whole place was noticeably quiet compared to, say, 3 months ago on a Saturday. Even Coles had checkout staff waiting around with nothing to do.

And I'm starting to think that way myself too. Handing over some $ for lunch I looked at the price, thought about the fact that every time I go shopping something has gone up, and realised that I really can't justify paying for overpriced lunches anymore when I could easily cook the same thing at home far more cheaply. And so there's another customer gone from another small business. 

Likewise the most spendthrift person I know has suddenly started over paying their mortgage. They've always spent everything they earn so they must have cut back on something. Add in rising food etc costs and that would presumably be a significant cut in their discretionary spending. Another store, pub or whatever that's lost a customer.

So overall, everywhere I look I see signs of a slowdown . Maybe it's just what I'm seeing and not really representative, but overall it doesn't look good to me at all. And it seems to be accelerating quite rapidly in the past couple of months. 

I also note that talk of a "skills shortage" has abruptly ended in the media. Another sign.


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## juddy (2 August 2008)

Here's a couple of ways to tell if a recession has started:

1) Check the local Good Sammy, Salvo Army et al store to see how much 'quality stuff' there is in stock.

2) Have a look at the goods thrown out at kerbside 'bring out your dead' collections.

Seriously though, I know what you mean Smurf. I'm in charge of maintenance at a large hospital. Getting contractors, quotes etc is a breeze now as compared to 2 years ago...and this is in Perth.


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## M34N (2 August 2008)

I work in retail, and deal with people mostly the construction industry, and have noticed a slowdown not so much in the cash customers, but account customers. The past year we grew over 10%, but this July gone was the first month in the past 2 1/2 years that we did not beat the previous year's figures. And for the first time in a long time, we have been 'dead' in the sense that we have actually had the time to finish things on the spot instead of constant interruptions! And like you have said smurf, a lot of contractors/builders are commenting on drops in jobs and talked about things being slower. As a result our cash customer base has grown vs. account customers by around 20%.

Seems that businesses are cutting back on expenditure, and have noticed fewer and fewer new projects starting in the past few months. Even house sales have seemed to have evaporated lately from what I have seen around my area.

Strangely though, traffic levels have still been noticeably bad as per usual and not better, which I would of thought would be another sign of a slowdown? Maybe it's because the job losses haven't kicked in yet. And I typically have lunch at a major shopping centre, it's noticeably a bit quiet in the major food courts, whereas a few months ago finding a spot to sit down used to be impossible. And looking for parking spots has been easier too.

I guess it's just a question of whether this is a sign of people just temporarily cutting back or if it's permanent. Maybe we will see a pick up from here, but for now it sure seems to be slowing down.


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## MRC & Co (2 August 2008)

The wheels are sure in motion.

I know small retail/hospitality business owners and every single one (even the most robust) are slowing.

Investment and the finance industry take the first hit, then it flows over the consumer cyclicals, retail etc.  It has been seen in the States, they thought we would be able to contain it within the Australian financial industry at first, looks like that AINT happening.


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## So_Cynical (2 August 2008)

I too think the slowdown has begun.

In the Business park where i work, 2 tenants have "gone under" in the last 2 months.

optima was Aust largest PC assembler and a big technology wholesaler.

http://pages.optima.com.au/

The other was a sml/mid sized Transport (trucking) company.


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## robots (2 August 2008)

hello,

yes things slowing in retail, food etc

my work in the construction industry is still enormous, we are continually looking for reliable people, 

thankyou
robots


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## constable (2 August 2008)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> yes things slowing in retail, food etc
> 
> ...




ditto melb is still booming as far as housing and construction goes and  i guess this is reflected by the govt now talking about restricting immigration to victoria. i know we havent been busier but we are a smaller co that can readily increase its market share and so far have failed to see any impact real or imagined.


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## noco (2 August 2008)

Here we go again under Labor, the recession we had to have.
 During the Howard /Costello 11 years in office they were able to  ward of recessions in Asia and Japan through good economic mamagement. Rudd and Swan with their stupid ETS will only exacerbate the problem and create further hardship for "the working families" who they portray to protect.
To all those who voted Labor Nov 2007, I'll bet you are all having second thoughts today.
We can look forward to higher cost of living and higher unemployement in the coming months; Labor cannot use the blame game any more. Unfortunately, Rudd and Swan just don't know what to do except blame others.


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## kotim (2 August 2008)

noco, Mate I am no particular fan of RUDD but NOT ONE BIT OF BLAME CAN BE PLACED ATTHE FOOT OF LABOUR.  

The excesses that are in the economy now that WERE EXACERBATED by the huge credit expansion should theoretically have been controlled by the HOWARD government.  Everyone knows that after boom comes bust and it is a matter of controlling the bust and hopefully having a soft landing.

In the end that is theoretically controlled by the Government of the day in its expansion phase.

John HOWARDS main claim to fame for controlling inflation was that he stopped wages growth.

John HOWARDS was pathetic.  Real wages have been reduced year after year under HOWARD, and the only thing that prevented a real problem was that we had a huge commodities boom that allowed jobs for everyone, so that women with families could get full time jobs at the drop of a hat, or any other type of part time work they wanted.

The sad fact is that once interest rates went up and people were fully employed with no where to go, money was gong to be short.  

Are you aware that when we consider inflation that to get the inflation rate in wages growth you have to add onto the top to allow for tax.  In fact with inflation currently running at about 4.5% and a taxation rate of roughly 33% for a round figure, you have to be given a 6% pay rise so that after tax you end up witht the inflation rate of 4.5%.  Let me ask you how many people this year are going to get 6% pay rises.

Do the maths over the years and you will soon realise that real spending power has been eroded over the years (both labour and liberal are responsible for this, however Liberals policy is less for the workers so they are the main offenders)

My brother in law was earning 65-70 grand a year at MIM in Mt Isa in the early 80's as a labourer.  Most workers in the mines at Mt Isa certainly aren't on much more than a hundred g's give or take a bit.  Sit down and compound out the inflation rate for the last 25 years and work out what 70 grand is worth today.


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## noco (2 August 2008)

kotim said:


> noco, Mate I am no particular fan of RUDD but NOT ONE BIT OF BLAME CAN BE PLACED ATTHE FOOT OF LABOUR.
> 
> The excesses that are in the economy now that WERE EXACERBATED by the huge credit expansion should theoretically have been controlled by the HOWARD government.  Everyone knows that after boom comes bust and it is a matter of controlling the bust and hopefully having a soft landing.
> 
> ...




Kotim "old mate", I was born in the 1930 recession and as I grew older I saw how my parents had to struggled under variuos Labor Governments.
I started work as an apprentice plumber on the equivalent of $2.19 per week.
I remember the tough times under Whitlam, Hawke and Keating; the loss of wages through strike after strike by militant unions in the builing industry. I also remember the 9 months strike at MIM created by Mackie. Thank God John Howard put an end that; days lost from strike action was almost reduced to zero during his term in office.
According to statistics real wagers increased by 17% under John Howard but actually went back under Hawke and Keating. Suggest you do some home work of your own and you may find I am closer to the point.
I am now a pensioner and finding it tougher than you "old mate" and KRUDD AND SWANIE could not care less about the real battlers. We managed to get by under John Howard. With the skyrocketing of food prices and fuel they have not offered one cent assistance. I would love to have an increase of 6% in the pension.
Don't be too optimistic of a Labor $21B  surplus after 2010. We will most likely be in the RED just as all the Labor states are at the moment.
Perhaps you may be in the same position some day and know what it is really like to struggle.


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## MRC & Co (2 August 2008)

Noco, may want to learn a bit about economic cycles and economics for that matter.

What do you think Hawke did for the economy, his reforms were the basis for the Howard Government, not exactly traditional labor reforms, no?  Whitlam was a bum as far as economic management, like Communism, good in theory.   

How was Howard going to fight off an economic slowdown in Australia due to a global crisis.  Rate cuts?  Fiscal stimulation?  What micro-economic reforms?  I would be interested to know..........


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## chops_a_must (2 August 2008)

constable said:


> ditto melb is still booming as far as housing and construction goes and  i guess this is reflected by the govt now talking about restricting immigration to victoria. i know we havent been busier but we are a smaller co that can readily increase its market share and so far have failed to see any impact real or imagined.



Wouldn't have thought you would dare to show your face in here again...


Anyway, construction has slowed to a trickle in Perth, in terms of new projects. Tradey rates are being slashed etc. What more do you want in the place that has held the national economy afloat?


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## white_goodman (2 August 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Noco, may want to learn a bit about economic cycles and economics for that matter.
> 
> What do you think Hawke did for the economy, his reforms were the basis for the Howard Government, not exactly traditional labor reforms, no?  Whitlam was a bum as far as economic management, like Communism, good in theory.
> 
> How was Howard going to fight off an economic slowdown in Australia due to a global crisis.  Rate cuts?  Fiscal stimulation?  What micro-economic reforms?  I would be interested to know..........




you have a point but i always find it interesting/funny that its always the battlers/labour constituents who manage to be the worse off under labour govt's.... however this is based upon my 20 years of knowledge


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## Smurf1976 (3 August 2008)

noco said:


> With the skyrocketing of food prices and fuel they have not offered one cent assistance. I would love to have an increase of 6% in the pension.
> 
> ...
> Don't be too optimistic of a Labor $21B  surplus after 2010. We will most likely be in the RED just as all the Labor states are at the moment.





As for food and fuel, what is Labor or Liberal, supposed to do about geological factors limiting the oil supply and a foolish global rush to put food in petrol tanks? Nothing much that anyone can do in the short term unless you count inducing a general economic slowdown. They could, of course, do something to make things better in 10 or 20 years time - I'd give both an "F" for their efforts in that regard. Fail for the other parties too.

As for the ALL the Labor states being in the red, that's simply not correct on the assumption that being "in the red" means accumulating debt today rather than simply having debt that was run up years ago by whoever was in government at the time. If you take the latter criteria then Howard also spent years "in the red" during the 1990's.

Back to the original topic, I think we're headed for a serious recession no matter who is in government now. The wheels seem to be in motion and it's been inevitable ever since the housing bubble began all those years ago. And no, I'm not blaming Howard - Australia isn't the only place it's happened. 

The way I see it, we've got consumers up to their necks in debt and they've started to worry. Now with a slowdown underway, they'll start worrying about employment security thus continuing the cycle and making the outcome inevitable. And I'm seeing rapidly mounting evidence that it's happening now here and overseas.


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## Smurf1976 (3 August 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Anyway, construction has slowed to a trickle in Perth, in terms of new projects. Tradey rates are being slashed etc. What more do you want in the place that has held the national economy afloat?



Trades rates being slashed as in no growth or slight reductions? Or slashed as in 50% or something drastic like that?


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## chops_a_must (3 August 2008)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trades rates being slashed as in no growth or slight reductions? Or slashed as in 50% or something drastic like that?



In some cases 10-20%

But the builder I talk to quite often has basically laid off everyone, bar the best he has accumulated over the last few years... and only putting on work to keep these guys in bread.


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## marklar (3 August 2008)

Funny isn't it how all those Real Estate agents that wouldn't even bother to return a phonecall a year ago are now 'suddenly' finding my contact details and calling me back?

Funny how getting a tradie around for a measure & quote is now able to be done at a time that suits me.

Can't walk through a car yard anymore and be left alone.

Yup, recession has started...

m.


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## moXJO (3 August 2008)

NSW south of Sydney 

Never had so much construction work. While the Mcmansions (house and land deal) work has stopped completely. The reno type and custom type homes has picked up considerably this past year. Had to cautiously put on another 4 workers. I’m charging up to 30% more on the jobs I don't want and still getting them. We were quiet about 2-3 years ago, for about 12 months. Stockpiling money with all the bearish talk though. If anything this downturn will obliterate a lot of competition as the tradies run to the mines and other safer options. And create even more of a skills shortage.Good times for me atm


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## robots (3 August 2008)

moXJO said:


> NSW south of Sydney
> 
> Never had so much construction work. While the Mcmansions (house and land deal) work has stopped completely. The reno type and custom type homes has picked up considerably this past year. Had to cautiously put on another 4 workers. I’m charging up to 30% more on the jobs I don't want and still getting them. We were quiet about 2-3 years ago, for about 12 months. Stockpiling money with all the bearish talk though. If anything this downturn will obliterate a lot of competition as the tradies run to the mines and other safer options. And create even more of a skills shortage.Good times for me atm




hello,

spot on moXJO, 2 bricklayers have decided to pack up and go to mines,

with the cost of living being spoken about in these communities I am not sure if they will be better off,

thankyou
robots


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## dhukka (3 August 2008)

Interesting thread. Sometimes I think the amount of energy expended talking about economic statistics is not half as useful as the anecdotal evidence of the type on this thread. 

I don't live in Oz but I'm currently on holiday, been back about 12 days so far. I spent three nights at Magnetic Island, beautiful spot. Got talking to a cleaner who cleans holiday apartments, she said she was cleaning 6 - 8 apartments a week this time last year. Told me that if she wasn't cleaning the apartment I was staying in she wouldn't have any work.


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## r34ztune (3 August 2008)

kotim said:


> noco, Mate I am no particular fan of RUDD but NOT ONE BIT OF BLAME CAN BE PLACED ATTHE FOOT OF LABOUR.
> 
> The excesses that are in the economy now that WERE EXACERBATED by the huge credit expansion should theoretically have been controlled by the HOWARD government.  Everyone knows that after boom comes bust and it is a matter of controlling the bust and hopefully having a soft landing.
> 
> ...




you can blame whoever you want, perception is reality, if we go into recession this will be "Rudd and Swan's recession" ,on the same token if we avoid recession it will because of "prudent fiscal policy"  and putting "downward pressure on inflation"


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## nunthewiser (3 August 2008)

ROFLMAO @ the idea that the current gov is too blame for years of financial irresponsibilty and lapsisaical economic planning. did the current gove really place us in this current position ? get real . it didnt just happen guys , but the current gov gunna be blamed for it regardless


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## kotim (3 August 2008)

noco, I understand, my mother is a single pensioner and I know how hard it is.  Politicians all round are not so hot.  Real wages have not grown 17%.  The old stats and lies routine.  Do some work for yourself, it will only take a few hours, Work out the inflation figure and then allow for tax rates on top of it and then see what happens when you compound it out over the last 25 odd years.  Go back more than 10 years and most people were paying almost 50% in the dollar tax, so yes the tax rates have reduced slightly.  But don't forget that back then if inflation ran at 3% then to allow for tax you had to get a pay rise of 4.5%.  Talk to the blokes working in Telstra, the Railways and all sorts of other average occupation and you will find that in many cases that they have not even been getting the equivalent of the inflation rate, let alone the extra for the tax part of it.

Peopel have a tendancy to be greedy.  For every dollar a buisiness owner saves he will do his best to put all that in his pocket rather than giving a decent share of it to the workers.  Hell that is the tendancy and whilst at a base level I don't necessarily disagree with it, becasue after all he took the risk, the problem is that if not enough goes back to the worker, then they end up short after a while.

The whole setup by the ogvernment is a big con.  There is a reason why the government has to pay so much "help" money now to people (besides just old plain human greed)

Have a think about it.  The government over taxs us and then promises to give it back in benefits, yet what they do is attach a lot of strings to those benefits and as each day goes by they attach more strings.

Government does not need you to vote for anything.  They simply will say, if you want that benefit in future then YOU WILL do such and such and most people will not have a choice becasue they need the benefits that the government supplies.

Theoretically if we have a budget surplus then the money should be returned, first to the indivdiual and then maybe secondarily to the corporation.


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## MRC & Co (3 August 2008)

dhukka said:


> Interesting thread. Sometimes I think the amount of energy expended talking about economic statistics is not half as useful as the anecdotal evidence of the type on this thread.
> 
> I don't live in Oz but I'm currently on holiday, been back about 12 days so far. I spent three nights at Magnetic Island, beautiful spot. Got talking to a cleaner who cleans holiday apartments, she said she was cleaning 6 - 8 apartments a week this time last year. Told me that if she wasn't cleaning the apartment I was staying in she wouldn't have any work.




Yep, this anecdotal evidence is THE leading indicator.  The rest of the economic stats just follow on way after the fact.


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## algis (3 August 2008)

There is one political factor that may be affecting the current climate: govt cutback on spending will no doubt at least temporarily increase unemployment due to retrenchments and reduce demand of goods and services.  An intentional deflationary action whilst food and fuel are likely to remain inflationary.  

People with big cars are finding that their resale is not so great.

Other non-govt factors affecting the buoyancy of consumer confidence include: ongoing increases in mortgage rates, reduction in property values and increases in rent in many areas (well, at least in Sydney).  All this is coming together at once and after years of an ongoing boom, it's starting to pinch.

Are there more contractors and small business people out there than back in the eighties?  If so, I'd be guessing they would be more reactive to changed conditions than larger enterprises... so a quicker more pronounced reaction to poor conditions would be expected?


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## white_goodman (3 August 2008)

moXJO said:


> NSW south of Sydney
> 
> Never had so much construction work. While the Mcmansions (house and land deal) work has stopped completely. The reno type and custom type homes has picked up considerably this past year. Had to cautiously put on another 4 workers. I’m charging up to 30% more on the jobs I don't want and still getting them. We were quiet about 2-3 years ago, for about 12 months. Stockpiling money with all the bearish talk though. If anything this downturn will obliterate a lot of competition as the tradies run to the mines and other safer options. And create even more of a skills shortage.Good times for me atm




my dads booked up 9 months in advance, and hasnt looked like letting up once the past 10 or so years


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## gfresh (3 August 2008)

Renno always comes on strong when the boil comes off the property market, and people cut back, so if anything it's a good as indicator as any.. 

Our business (mainly small business retailers) have noticed many customers slow to pay their bills, many weeks late. Even the better ones we've never had problems with can be slow.  That's a usual indicator their businesses aren't doing so well with their own cashflow. A few of the medium businesses we deal with have gone into administration in the last couple of months, which obviously is not a good thing. Billxpress collapse has tied up a lot of money for us, which we may or may not get back. So few signals here and there add up.


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## wallyt99 (3 August 2008)

I sort of feel that a recession would help trim the fat off the economy anyway.


Too many workers have become slack in this time of low unemployment, and businesses which are innefficient and unneccesary are still making money.


Get rid of the slackers, and the inefficient production.....then lets work our way to an even BETTER tommorow.


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## nunthewiser (3 August 2008)

At least i might be able to get a plumber out for a fair price in the future


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## Smurf1976 (3 August 2008)

algis said:


> Are there more contractors and small business people out there than back in the eighties?



I'd assume so given the amount of outsourcing that went on during the 1990's. 20 years ago government especially tended to do practically everything "in house" with its own employees, workshops and so on. Now all but the most specialised work has been outsourced, much of it to relatively small contractors or sub-contractors. Much the same with large corporations etc outsourcing their work.

One consequence of all this is that it is now MUCH easier to cut the "real" (including contractors) workforce of government or large business. 20 years ago it meant sacking thousands or works and all that entails. Now it's simply a case of not going ahead with the next project thus putting the contractor out of work. A major decision for senior management then. Something that can be done simply by NOT making a phone call to a contractor today. It's much, much easier to downsize now.


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## Julia (3 August 2008)

kotim said:


> Theoretically if we have a budget surplus then the money should be returned, first to the indivdiual and then maybe secondarily to the corporation.




Disagree.
If we have a surplus, I'd prefer to see a decent chunk of it placed into infrastructure so that we don't have people dying on hospital waiting lists, we have some sort of supply of cheap rental accommodation for the thousands who can't pay market rates or buy a home,and  we can include dental care within Medicare etc etc.  The list is endless.

Many will say no to the above suggestion, and feel that a desirable alternative is to reduce taxes and expect people to provide for themselves.
Good in theory, but just not practicable.


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## Paladin (3 August 2008)

Julia said:


> Disagree.
> If we have a surplus, I'd prefer to see a decent chunk of it placed into infrastructure so that we don't have people dying on hospital waiting lists, we have some sort of supply of cheap rental accommodation for the thousands who can't pay market rates or buy a home,and  we can include dental care within Medicare etc etc.  The list is endless.
> 
> Many will say no to the above suggestion, and feel that a desirable alternative is to reduce taxes and expect people to provide for themselves.
> Good in theory, but just not practicable.




Absolutely. Personally, in an inflationary environment, I'm dead against the notion of tax cuts. Really felt Rudd et al sold out on that one (although it would have been suicide not to match the Libs). I'd MUCH rather see our government generating larger surpluses and investing them both in essential infrastructure and also in a way to ensure a long-term 'future fund'. 

Half the genius of Howard was selling the idea to the Australian people that the government of the day is somehow in control of those global variables that affect our economy most. He got all the glory for the good times, and now Rudd will get the blame for the bad. Sigh. I'd like to know two things:

1. Who elected the American prez to be "leader of the free world"? The yanks are so fond of that phrase, but I appear to have missed that vote.

2. In a similar vein - who voted the government of our teeny tiny nation to be in charge of interest rates, exchange rates, the Chinese resources need, oil prices, and all those other lovely pan-economic waves that we get to surf the ripples of? The government of the day, like a surfer, can carve a little direction hither and thither and maybe throw in a nice move or two, but they can't make the ocean move.


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## Aboundz (3 August 2008)

Paladin,
Excellent summary. Amen and amen.


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## MRC & Co (3 August 2008)

If we have a budget surplus, it is planned for a reason in the context of broader fiscal policy.

If you return it to the community or anybody else, then you are defeating the purpose of a surplus.

What about the times you have a deficit?  Should we then pay extra to cover that deficit?


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## CanOz (3 August 2008)

Julia said:


> Disagree.
> If we have a surplus, I'd prefer to see a decent chunk of it placed into infrastructure so that we don't have people dying on hospital waiting lists, we have some sort of supply of cheap rental accommodation for the thousands who can't pay market rates or buy a home,and  we can include dental care within Medicare etc etc.  The list is endless.
> 
> Many will say no to the above suggestion, and feel that a desirable alternative is to reduce taxes and expect people to provide for themselves.
> Good in theory, but just not practicable.




It is my view that investment in infrastructure during a downturn in growth is a good way to stimulate employment, and therefore economic activity. The Chinese are doing it now, with the massive surpluses they have. Bridges, highways, hospitals and schools are being built. Say what you want about the Chinese, but when it comes to economic policy they learn equally from what not to do.

As a contrast, the US chooses to buy votes with tax cuts and stimulus checks, while  in the meantime the interstate road system is decaying, bridges are being condemned,  and the rail networks are rusting beyond repair.....where is the sense here? (I love Americans, but honestly people, go vote the knuckle heads out for good! Everyone hates your stupid government.)

I hope Rudd builds hospitals, schools and roads.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (3 August 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> If we have a budget surplus, it is planned for a reason in the context of broader fiscal policy.
> 
> If you return it to the community or anybody else, then you are defeating the purpose of a surplus.
> 
> What about the times you have a deficit?  Should we then pay extra to cover that deficit?




Should the American people pay more to pay down their budget deficit? Of course, someone has to pay, you can't borrow forever....but watch them try....they just raised the ceiling too!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## noco (4 August 2008)

kotim said:


> noco, I understand, my mother is a single pensioner and I know how hard it is.  Politicians all round are not so hot.  Real wages have not grown 17%.  The old stats and lies routine.  Do some work for yourself, it will only take a few hours, Work out the inflation figure and then allow for tax rates on top of it and then see what happens when you compound it out over the last 25 odd years.  Go back more than 10 years and most people were paying almost 50% in the dollar tax, so yes the tax rates have reduced slightly.  But don't forget that back then if inflation ran at 3% then to allow for tax you had to get a pay rise of 4.5%.  Talk to the blokes working in Telstra, the Railways and all sorts of other average occupation and you will find that in many cases that they have not even been getting the equivalent of the inflation rate, let alone the extra for the tax part of it.
> 
> Peopel have a tendancy to be greedy.  For every dollar a buisiness owner saves he will do his best to put all that in his pocket rather than giving a decent share of it to the workers.  Hell that is the tendancy and whilst at a base level I don't necessarily disagree with it, becasue after all he took the risk, the problem is that if not enough goes back to the worker, then they end up short after a while.
> 
> ...




Kotim old mate, log on to Google "Past 10 years wage increases statistics for Australia", this may dispell your "old stats and lies routine". The average increases have been 4% PER YEAR up to 2008.Don't take my word for it.


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## MRC & Co (4 August 2008)

CanOz said:


> Should the American people pay more to pay down their budget deficit? Of course, someone has to pay, you can't borrow forever....but watch them try....they just raised the ceiling too!
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Are you talking about a budget suplus/deficit, or trade surplus/deficit?



Many opinions, which are just that.  

According to a very close family member of mine, he could run the economy far better than it currently is, easy to be an arm chair economist with little clue of how it actually functions.  In reality it is FAR FAR FAR more complex than anybody could imagine.  After years of study, I still have little clue on many specific areas.  Try learning about something as simple as the over-night money market.  

I spent weeks perusing the RBA site and still could barely make heads or tails of it.  I recieved a High Distinction on a piece on it years back, simpy because a lecturer knew just as little!  

I think economists who actually know how the economy works are few and far between, I would say there are only a handful worldwide and even then, they would be specialists in one area.  Talk about a complex and chaotic system!


----------



## YELNATS (4 August 2008)

M34N said:


> I work in retail,  And I typically have lunch at a major shopping centre, it's noticeably a bit quiet in the major food courts, whereas a few months ago finding a spot to sit down used to be impossible. And looking for parking spots has been easier too.
> 
> I guess it's just a question of whether this is a sign of people just temporarily cutting back or if it's permanent. Maybe we will see a pick up from here, but for now it sure seems to be slowing down.




I have a busy retail business in a medium to large shopping centre. Fortunately, I'm reasonably "recession-resistant" and my trade is about 5-10% down on the same time last year. However, talking to other retailers, their trade is down by a whole lot more and it's been very noticeable for them from around February-March-April.

It seems the RBA is blissfully unaware of what is happening in the real world until about 6 months after-the-fact and a good deal of our current malaise must be laid at their doorstep. Too many gung-ho rate hikes and not enough accountability on their part.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (4 August 2008)

Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:

Layoffs

Starbucks                      700
Don Smallgoods               640  
South Pacific Tyres         600
Holden Fishersman Bend   530
Qantas                          500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink                      20
IAG                              600
Suncorp                         60
NIB                               40
SPC Ardmona  (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado                        10

Grand Total                = 3760   

So here you go, this is only what we know from newspapers, so we can be pretty sure much more has been happening behind the scene.

I was also reading some stuff about immigration this weekend and the current immigration rate is not covering for the outflow (people leaving) migration and the death rate, so we are pretty much growing from birth, which will stall once you got hit by recession. 

I can only see this stopping once real estate prices stall for about 5 years (do not want to say fall because 99% of Australians think that prices do not fall, everyone is smart and pays only fair or below market price for their properties)  and when I can get a decent plumber/electrician for about $20 per hour without  the call-fee .

WBII


----------



## gfresh (4 August 2008)

yelnats said:
			
		

> It seems the RBA is blissfully unaware of what is happening in the real world until about 6 months after-the-fact and a good deal of our current malaise must be laid at their doorstep. Too many gung-ho rate hikes and not enough accountability on their part.




I am sure they are fully aware.. they just don't care about the common man and their problems as a result. Nobody queries when they are borrowing hell-for-leather below the long-term average rate, yet soon as they return closer to the average, nobody can cope. 

In fact, no doubt they will feel (but probably never express), a recession is just part of the normal cycle, which corrects a few things that have got out of balance in the last decade. So in their eyes, probably a recession is not necessarily a bad thing for the longer-term prosperity of the country, which is their charter. To be honest, I think I maybe agree..


----------



## zolow (4 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:
> 
> Layoffs
> 
> ...




Maybe these are just examples of companies being to optimistic and overshooting the mark, in terms of employment and capacity increases. Any one of these companies could have taken advantage of boom times and  expanded as quick as they could in order to cope with demand and increase value for shareholders.

Now things are not going so great, so companies need to rationalise their organisational structure in order maintain shareholder value (or in some cases stay in business). 

Anyway, I suppose my point is you don't know for sure whether these layoffs are because of recession or just poor management decisions when deciding how to expand their company. Perhaps the economy is just slowing down to more sustainable rates?

Just a thought


----------



## kingbrown (4 August 2008)

I think it has 
As we see luxury items such as holidays, goods etc drop first in demmand 

*Re Heavy vehicles Rv's and Boats etc *
Trucks cart all these goods around the country 
And here's the worrying thing and they are the real Canary in the coal mine !!


Truck Prices have really started to tank 
Used truck sales have come to a screaming halt
not just the large semi's but also all those taxi trucks 
Reposessions are rolling in with no buyers 

since may it's been amazing how quick things have declined
Its as if no one wants them now ?
Last month was the worst i have seen 
Dealers are all jammed with over priced stock 

Caravan industry is now in really bad shape 

This time last year it was around a 6 month wait for a new van 
Now caravan manufactures are begging for work many have 
now run out of work 
Call one and you will get instant delivery !

Tour operators are going to the wall also with a double hit 
high fuel and high dollar  ! 

In our industrial area nth of Melb one found it hard to find a factory 
12 months ago 
Now one has the choice for over 220 factories in one suburb alone 
most are vacant and yes the spec builders are still building more
Not for long imo  

Would be good to hear from anyone that knows the boat industry 
i would like to hear their recent sales experiences ?
Also i have heard bad reports from the furniture industry would be good to hear from some manufactures or importers ?


----------



## white_goodman (4 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:
> 
> Layoffs
> 
> ...




you could also add about 30 from Stockland head office, they even got rid of an entire department, their funds management division from what i heard... 

also all the major property agencies have laid off about 30 or so a piece at head office (JLL, Colliers, Savills, CBRE etc)


----------



## skint (4 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:
> 
> Layoffs
> 
> ...




I agree where in or near a downturn/recession but population is still increasing.

From the Aust. Bureau of Statistics:

Population clock   

On 4 August 2008 at 18:18:28 (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:

21,383,016
This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2007 and assumes growth since then of: 
one birth every 1 minute and 55 seconds, 
one death every 3 minutes and 57 seconds, 
a net gain of one international migrant every 2 minutes and 38 seconds leading to 
an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 33 seconds.


----------



## overlap (4 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:
> .
> .
> Starbucks                      700
> ...




Starbucks are paying the price for a stupid business strategy based on a wrong reading of their potential market. Coffee drinkers aren't going to flock in masses to these places when better product is already available for the same price.

Little or nothing to do with a downturn. That might be the excuse.


----------



## white_goodman (4 August 2008)

overlap said:


> Starbucks are paying the price for a stupid business strategy based on a wrong reading of their potential market. Coffee drinkers aren't going to flock in masses to these places when better product is already available for the same price.
> 
> Little or nothing to do with a downturn. That might be the excuse.




i never really drunk starbucks, what price did they charge for a regular coffee? whats gloria jeans prices in comparison?


----------



## Ageo (4 August 2008)

Well my dad is in the building game (bricklayer) and he has work for 2 yrs.

I guess it hasnt slowed down for him (its actually been busier than i can remember).


----------



## white_goodman (4 August 2008)

Ageo said:


> Well my dad is in the building game (bricklayer) and he has work for 2 yrs.
> 
> I guess it hasnt slowed down for him (its actually been busier than i can remember).




i think the tradesman industry will be protected by a national skills shortage in a lot of areas, similar to mining i presume


----------



## robots (4 August 2008)

hello,

yes cashed up bogans are still going strong

thankyou
robots


----------



## nunthewiser (4 August 2008)

RIGHTEOUS!!! good to see a fellow cashed up bogan out there ....... bless us all


----------



## wildkactus (4 August 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Would be good to hear from anyone that knows the boat industry
> i would like to hear their recent sales experiences ?
> Also i have heard bad reports from the furniture industry would be good to hear from some manufactures or importers ?




From talking to some of the dealers at shows, the industry is going strong at the top end but struggling at the bottom end. 
Some of the High end brands have wait lists for up to 3 years or more, and money is being maded on short term leases / sales of second hand vessels until the new one arrives. It is a totally differnet story for the smaller lower end brands, with orders slowing or non existent.

The custom superyacht market is just getting out of control there is more orders now then ever before for these yachts 100 foot or more in size.

A couple off companies that have been in the news with layoffs. 
Brunswick in the USA has laid off over 1000 staff and closed 2 brands.
Riviera has also laid off 200 staff this year and has said profit will be down.

you can get more info here. www.ibinews.com


----------



## CanOz (5 August 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Are you talking about a budget suplus/deficit, or trade surplus/deficit?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I was thinking about the US budget deficit, but they currently have a trade deficit in the same region according the last Economist i checked, 800 Billion?

Its true I'm certainly nothing more than an armchair economist and an amateurish one at that MRC. Even what I've learned in the last couple of years has only been through a keen interest in the markets. In fact the only fundamental information i pay attention to is macro economic.

It is really interesting to listen to guys like Roubini as they criticize Big Ben and HP for their work, but yet you've got to wonder if they would really have the political gonads to carry out firm fiscal management in these times.

Personally i like Chuck Butler and his opinions, years of watching the currency markets makes him an interesting read every day.

So, may we always have arm chair economists to enlighten and stimulate debate among us!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## wayneL (5 August 2008)

CanOz said:


> I was thinking about the US budget deficit, but they currently have a trade deficit in the same region according the last Economist i checked, 800 Billion?
> 
> Its true I'm certainly nothing more than an armchair economist and an amateurish one at that MRC. Even what I've learned in the last couple of years has only been through a keen interest in the markets. In fact the only fundamental information i pay attention to is macro economic.
> 
> ...



The thing is, us armchair economists have been much better at forecasting than the "real" ones. Political/commercial expediencies at play, perhaps.


----------



## ROE (5 August 2008)

Interesting .. all doom and gloom but he has valid point about debt level

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200808/s2324011.htm


----------



## Julia (5 August 2008)

ROE said:


> Interesting .. all doom and gloom but he has valid point about debt level
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200808/s2324011.htm



Thanks, ROE.  And yes about the debt level.
I notice, though, that he is somewhat covering himself by refusing to commit as to interest rates and noting that you can't draw complete conclusions on the figures so far.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (7 August 2008)

Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks                      700
Don Smallgoods               640  
South Pacific Tyres         600
Holden Fishersman Bend   530
Qantas                          500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink                      20
IAG                              600
Suncorp                         60
NIB                               40
SPC Ardmona  (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado                        10
Property developers        100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands        350 

Grand Total                = 4210


----------



## gfresh (8 August 2008)

hmmm... first impression was that isn't that much, however, ABS: 481,700 people unemployed July 08 .. 4210 / 481700 = 0.874% more technically added to the unemployment que. 

Although of course those won't shown up in figures for many weeks, and of course they may find other work. 

Few economists today disputing the figures as not truly reflective however, saying they've greatly reduced the sample size, giving inaccurate projection.

Here are 40 more: http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...telco-arm-closed/0,130061791,339291113,00.htm

Reckon you'd have to add at least a few hundred in realestate agencies, and property development for now, and in the next 6 months.

Probably advertising agencies are also feeling the squeeze, as businesses cut back on spending there too. 

All the non-bank lenders must really be cutting back too on staff, looking at this week's property financing figures. Hate to think how many there.


----------



## So_Cynical (8 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?
> 
> Layoffs
> 
> ...




Add to that 30 staff at Elders.
http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...telco-arm-closed/0,130061791,339291113,00.htm

and about 50 at Optima....so far, could be 100
http://www.arnnet.com.au/index.php/id;466973485;fp;4194304;fpid;1


----------



## Warren Buffet II (8 August 2008)

Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks                      700
Don Smallgoods               640  
South Pacific Tyres         600
Holden Fishersman Bend   530
Qantas                          500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink                      20
IAG                              600
Suncorp                         60
NIB                               40
SPC Ardmona  (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado                        10
Property developers        100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands        350 
Elders                           70
Optima                          50

Grand Total                = 4330   [/QUOTE]


----------



## Warren Buffet II (8 August 2008)

gfresh said:


> hmmm... first impression was that isn't that much, however, ABS: 481,700 people unemployed July 08 .. 4210 / 481700 = 0.874% more technically added to the unemployment que.
> 
> Although of course those won't shown up in figures for many weeks, and of course they may find other work.
> 
> ...




You have to see that I am trying to make a conservative account, you see I have Qantas with the 500 layoffs but they say that they will layoff upto 1500 which will addan extra 1000 people in one hit.


----------



## kingbrown (8 August 2008)

Well you can throw a few more to the list 

*Corporate telco Commander Communications has collapsed,* 
six months into a restructure that was intended to save the company.

was triggered by the company's banks calling in the company's debt yesterday.


http://business.smh.com.au/business/commander-surrenders-appoints-administrator-20080808-3rzu.html


----------



## dhukka (8 August 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Well you can throw a few more to the list
> 
> *Corporate telco Commander Communications has collapsed,*
> six months into a restructure that was intended to save the company.
> ...





I wonder which banks are holding the bag for this one? Anyone know or I am gonna hafta look it up for meself?


----------



## Happy (8 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?
> 
> Layoffs
> 
> ...



[/QUOTE]



Shouldn’t we deduct from the figure new employment?

Say for example there was Dinosaur Zoo, so employees would have to move on after Dinosaurs died, apologies for crude example.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (8 August 2008)

happy said:


> Shouldn’t we deduct from the figure new employment?
> 
> Say for example there was Dinosaur Zoo, so employees would have to move on after Dinosaurs died, apologies for crude example.




Happy, I am more than happy for you to do that, get some facts and put them in a list. Remember to put the ones from Dinosaur Zoo once they find a job at Your Zoo . I ´ll keep doing my layoffs one.

WBII


----------



## Warren Buffet II (8 August 2008)

Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640 
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10
Property developers 100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands 350 
Elders 70
Optima 50
Commander 2000

Grand Total = 6330 

This is becoming an everyday event now. scary stuff.

WBII


----------



## juddy (8 August 2008)

well it's a few months old now, but what about Mitsubishi?  (1000)


----------



## nunthewiser (8 August 2008)

UB40 song one in ten springs to mind google it


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2008)

Shouldn’t we deduct from the figure new employment?

Say for example there was Dinosaur Zoo, so employees would have to move on after Dinosaurs died, apologies for crude example.[/QUOTE]
I follow what you're saying, but big layoffs becoming a regular event are one of the most classic signs of a serious downturn and identifying that is the point of this thead.

Sure, businesses close and people lose their jobs all the time. But when you start getting a constant stream of significant (big enough to make the news) jobs being lost then that's historically been a damn good sign that we're in a downturn.


----------



## milothedog (8 August 2008)

good song nunthewiser - no need to google


----------



## Warren Buffet II (11 August 2008)

Minara Resources sacked 20% of their employees last week. I wonder how many was that?

So, for those who believe that the mining boom will go forever and the skill shortage doesn't have a solution in that industry, there you go, you have now some people ready to work in those areas and we can see is what has happened before, prices start to decline and mines just become unviable.

More to come for sure.


----------



## Happy (11 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Happy, I am more than happy for you to do that, get some facts and put them in a list. Remember to put the ones from Dinosaur Zoo once they find a job at Your Zoo . I ´ll keep doing my layoffs one.
> 
> WBII





I am happy to see just one side of the story as I have no idea where to look for new employment figures, maybe there is nothing to find


----------



## alwaysLearning (11 August 2008)

Can our resources sector keep Australia out of a recession?


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 August 2008)

What worries me most about resources is that "resources will save us" has become the dominant economic mantra of recent years. It's to the point where everyone from uni students to retirees seems to believe it. 

And when something economic becomes so widely believed, especially when it's in the "keep going forever" category, history says it ends in disaster.

In my opinion heavy reliance on resources simply leverages us to the world economy as a whole. Great when there's a boom, but when the inevitable recession occurs globally...


----------



## kingbrown (12 August 2008)

*RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown*

Australia's central bank expects the economy to generate barely 80,000 new positions, with jobs growth of just 0.75 per cent failing to match the forecast rise in the number of jobseekers. 

"With the rate of employment growth expected to remain below that of the working-age population, the unemployment rate is expected to rise," the RBA said in its quarterly economic review yesterday. The bank warned there were already signs that demand for labour was falling. 


But unemployment would rise by as much as 175,000 if growth in the number of job-seekers keeps rising at the same rate as in recent years


See the Australian link today 
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165909-601,00.html


----------



## kingbrown (12 August 2008)

*RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown*

Australia's central bank expects the economy to generate barely 80,000 new positions, with jobs growth of just 0.75 per cent failing to match the forecast rise in the number of jobseekers. 

"With the rate of employment growth expected to remain below that of the working-age population, the unemployment rate is expected to rise," the RBA said in its quarterly economic review yesterday. The bank warned there were already signs that demand for labour was falling. 


But unemployment would rise by as much as 175,000 if growth in the number of job-seekers keeps rising at the same rate as in recent years


See the Australian link today 
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165909-601,00.html


----------



## numbercruncher (12 August 2008)

kingbrown said:


> *RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown*
> 
> Australia's central bank expects the economy to generate barely 80,000 new positions, with jobs growth of just 0.75 per cent failing to match the forecast rise in the number of jobseekers.
> 
> ...






I bet that figure doesnt take in to account the few hundred thousand Immigrants arriving to take your jobs for a lower price


----------



## kingbrown (12 August 2008)

*Commodities will thay take Australia down ?*

Here's the lateset talk coming from the RBA 
Re: commodities boom or Gloom 


THE Reserve Bank has slashed its forecasts for growth in both Australia and the region, signalling it will cut interest rates to support the economy.


[SIZE="2"]*The bank is increasingly concerned that the world economy is caught in a vicious cycle that could bring an end to the commodities boom. *"*Any further deterioration in the outlook for global growth would represent a significant downside risk to the domestic activity profile, particularly if it led to a marked slowing in growth in China and India," the bank said in its quarterly review of the economy. [/SIZE]*
"This could lead to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the Australian economy and commodity markets." 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165906-20142,00.html


----------



## gfresh (12 August 2008)

Europe and Japanese slowdown is worse for Australia directly than the US. As an example, attached is a chart from BHP showing where it's export dollars come from. As can be seen, the US is only a small sliver, but Europe and Japan make up nearly 1/3. China makes up 1/5, where much of the demand is driven by building export products for the Europe, and the US. 

As most know, resource prices are taking a tumble (look up zinc,lead, aluminum, nickel, gold on kitco, it's across the board), and these things don't reverse quickly. This year's net profit still likely to be very good for Rio & BHP, however next 12 is likely to be a significant reduction in profits. As a few  large miners contribute billions to the GDP of the country, the flow-on effect on the entire economy is not insignificant, and the full effects may not come through until 6-12 months. 

Government was boasting just 6 months ago how many billions it was going to have in surplus over the next few years, but I bet you these weren't taking into account a massive reduction in the resource prices (and the big majors) that makes up these profits.


----------



## kingbrown (12 August 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> I bet that figure doesnt take in to account the few hundred thousand Immigrants arriving to take your jobs for a lower price





*Would be a thought to see how big the numbers really are in immigration ?? *
*According to SMH 
its around 300,000 odd per year 
when you include Kiwis Over stayed visa's and students
All hungry for work and housing  *
http://www.smh.com.au/news/paul-sheehan/the-challenge-of-migration/2008/08/03/1217701846375.html

Would be an idea if some one could verify this ? 
If so Aussie kids about to leave school in the next few years 
may find it really hard ?


----------



## ROE (12 August 2008)

alwaysLearning said:


> Can our resources sector keep Australia out of a recession?




Resource sector only employ 3-7% of the work force so proabbly not


----------



## Warren Buffet II (12 August 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?




The RBA is setting a how higher number than me, 100,000 that is high.

Interesting enough we only know about the big job losses on the newspapers, I am managed to gather about 7000 in just 2 weeks, so this could mean that the number could be even double in real terms.

Where is Swan BTW, I am sure the petrol, groceries, workplace, environmental watch dogs are working really hard? I bet Labor next move is an anti-job losses watch dog!

WBII


----------



## Beej (12 August 2008)

ROE said:


> Resource sector only employ 3-7% of the work force so proabbly not




It's not just about direct employment numbers but also indirect employment related to the sector, plus more importantly the money flows. All the money coming in has to go somewhere, and that provides a SIGNIFICANT stimulatory effect to the economy at current terms of trade levels.

Beej


----------



## kingbrown (18 August 2008)

*and the fat lady now walks onto the stage ?*

*Fears are growing that the commodities boom is ending *

as investors who have fled the oil market desert gold, copper and other metals. 
Oil prices have slumped 23% in four weeks, while gold and copper have fallen by similar amounts and last week lead plunged 15%. 

The falls follow a fundamental shift in financial flows as investors prepare for a global slowdown, News Ltd reports. 

*"The speed and weight of money behind this move has been quite breathtaking," ANZ foreign exchange strategist Tony Morriss said. 

"Commodity booms end ugly, they always do, and there has never been an exception," Access Economics director Chris Richardson told the newspaper.* 


http://smallbusiness.theage.com.au/growing/finance/fear-over-resources-boom-907256442.html


----------



## gfresh (22 August 2008)

It's coming alright.. even if it's just self-perpetuating. Ford taking no chances. 



> FORD is set to cut up to 15% of its manufacturing workforce in Australia, with hundreds of jobs to go at its Geelong and Broadmeadows plants later this year, as a slowing economy and high petrol prices hit sales of big cars.
> 
> News of Ford's cutbacks emerged after multinational Cadbury-Schweppes yesterday announced hundreds of local job losses, and as other leading Australian companies reported falling profits and worsening conditions across the economy.
> 
> Ford spokeswoman Sinead McAlary confirmed last night that the company was planning to cut production and shed workers in response to falling demand for its six-cylinder cars, *and in anticipation of a further deterioration in the economy.*




Perilya sacking 450 staff (mining boom eh..going, going...). Cadbury's Tasmania laying off 330 by 2010. 

This is early 90's stuff from what I remember, article after article of job layoffs and cutbacks.


----------



## kingbrown (22 August 2008)

Not to mention Babcock & Brown 

BABCOCK & Brown is to cut a quarter of its 1600 staff, slash its $3.7 billion of debt in half and abandon its flamboyant style of deal making in a desperate effort to persuade investors it has a sharemarket future.

Its share price has plummeted more than 90 per cent in less than a year. The result has been a culling of its sharemarket capitalisation from an all-time high of more than $11 billion to just $740 million as of yesterday.

In a damning self-indictment of the group's fall from grace, the newly-appointed B&B chairman, Elizabeth Nosworthy, yesterday admitted that the specialist fund and asset manager's aggressive approach to doing business was over and that it had to undergo radical change to survive

http://business.smh.com.au/business/jobs-axed-in-babcock-rescue-plan-20080821-3zkf.html


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 August 2008)

gfresh said:


> It's coming alright.. even if it's just self-perpetuating. Ford taking no chances.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yep, sounds VERY like the days immediately before a recession is widely acknowledged.

As for Cadbury, that's a farily significant one locally. For as long as anyone can remember, a job there has always been regarded as absolutely "safe" and I've never heard anyone say it's anything other than a good place to work.


----------



## wayneL (22 August 2008)

Well the Ministry for Creative Statistics have managed to massage out a 0% GDP growth for the UK. This leaves us on the street level a bit bemused as at least 5% high street shops have whitewashed windows. At least they didn't try a positive number on us. LOL

The High street is still full of people, but when you talk to the shopkeepers, nobody is buying and they're hurting like hell.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/22/bcngdp122.xml



> UK economic growth shudders to a halt
> 
> By Telegraph staff
> Last Updated: 10:05am BST 22/08/2008
> ...


----------



## Julia (22 August 2008)

kingbrown said:


> N
> In a damning self-indictment of the group's fall from grace, the newly-appointed B&B chairman, Elizabeth Nosworthy, yesterday admitted that the specialist fund and asset manager's aggressive approach to doing business was over and that it had to undergo radical change to survive
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/jobs-axed-in-babcock-rescue-plan-20080821-3zkf.html



Well, I'd put zero store by anything Ms Nosworthy says.   She has been associated with more failed companies than any other company director I can think of.  And BNB elevate her to Chairman, fergawdsake!

She seems to have a tenuous grasp on the public perception.
She is Chair of the SE Qld Water Commission and for the last two or more years has been exhorting Queenslanders to cut their water useage.
Only bucket watering of gardens has been allowed etc etc.
Then a few months ago the Sunday Mail featured a full page photograph of Ms Nosworthy's elegant home, showing the building of an enormous swimming pool!


----------



## dhukka (22 August 2008)

Julia said:


> Well, I'd put zero store by anything Ms Nosworthy says.   She has been associated with more failed companies than any other company director I can think of.  And BNB elevate her to Chairman, fergawdsake!
> 
> She seems to have a tenuous grasp on the public perception.
> She is Chair of the SE Qld Water Commission and for the last two or more years has been exhorting Queenslanders to cut their water useage.
> ...




Yep, do as I say, not as I do


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 August 2008)

Another one. Boeing to cut 500 jobs in Melbourne. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/23/2344440.htm

It's becoming a consistent pattern. Businesses aren't necessarily going broke (though some are in trouble) but they're looking for any way they can find to cut costs. Cadbury, Boeing and the others - all looking for some way to boost the bottom line now that simple economic growth isn't doing the job for them.

Another example is Nyrstar. Whilst they're not closing or reducing staff as such, the possible transfer of zinc production from Port Pirie to Hobart is just another example of seeking to cut costs. 

Surely Joe Avearge is going to start noticing the big job loss announcements sooner or later. And when they do, just watch those wallets stay firmly shut, leading to another wave of job losses in retail, transport and so on.

In my opinion the recession train has left the station, is rolling backwards downhill and has no driver on board. The end result has been inevitable since the driver stepped off without applying the brake. It's too late to do anything now other than get yourself out of the way and think about how to clean up the mess that's about to happen at the bottom of the hill.


----------



## nick2fish (24 August 2008)

Definition of Recession is a period of general economic decline, part of the usual business cycle. 
The one that got called "the one we had to have" was unfortunately named as economies have always needed recessions to remain healthy. 
A bit like a fire in the bush, a few trees/animals may perish but the new life generated more than compensates. 
The weak will perish and strong survive
Losing manufacturing jobs will become more commonplace in this new global society, we just can't compete with someone that works for $100 or less per week.
The same people that will make our manufacturing industry obsolete spend billions buying our commodities so we should 't complain just learn how to drive a dumpy or work in the service industries.
My thoughts are with those who have or will lose their jobs , it happened to me, and it sucks.
However I have found a new life out West and the pieces are falling slowly into place.
Beware the power of the media also
Sorry to sound so melodramatic,


----------



## Dowdy (24 August 2008)

The USA has been in a recession since early this year. As with Australia, we're not in recession yet but in a slowdown


----------



## kingbrown (26 August 2008)

Re The transport industry is the Canary in the Coal mine ! 
After ditching 380 contractors Kenworth are now laying off full time staff  


*Kenworth Trucks has announced it will cut 80 manufacturing staff from its Melbourne factory in a further blow to Australia's automotive industry.*

The announcement comes just days after Ford Australia said it would cut up to 350 jobs, or 15 per cent of its Australian manufacturing workforce, by November because of slow large-car sales.

The cuts at Kenworth Trucks will be made from September 5, management told the 1,100 staff at its Bayswater factory in Melbourne's outer east

Australian Manufacturing Workers Union shop steward at Kenworth Les Takacs said the job losses would cut production from 23 trucks a day to eight.

*The company had cut 380 contractors since last year, he said.*

http://news.theage.com.au/national/kenworth-trucks-to-cut-80-jobs-20080826-429h.html


----------



## kingbrown (26 August 2008)

*FINANCE Minister Lindsay Tanner is right to tell people not to panic over major job losses, but people need more than reassurance.*

While Mr Tanner points to an economy "in reasonably good shape", this will do little to calm down workers who have lost their jobs. 

The aircraft industry has also suffered heavy job losses with Qantas announcing it will slash 1500 jobs and possibly another 1200. Boeing will cut 300 jobs at its Melbourne components plant. 

The Rudd Government needs to quickly focus on retraining and building confidence in a workforce becoming increasingly nervous about job prospects. 
 

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24241369-24218,00.html


----------



## gfresh (26 August 2008)

Might need more than a little re-assurance if every day in the paper there is continuing news like this:



> Fairfax Media to cut 550 jobs
> Chris Zappone
> August 26, 2008 - 10:12AM
> 
> ...


----------



## ghotib (26 August 2008)

Enough of these global averages and national medians. Try this hypothetical situation:

Location: Sydney inner west
Property: 490 sq m; freestanding house approx 90 years old; original features, solid condition; 2.5 bedrooms; 1.5 bathrooms; 2 living areas; 1-car garage; driveway shared with one neighbour (covenants on each title); backs onto park.
Owners' financials: No debts; living on savings plus some capital held outside super. 
Owners' intentions: Move to 5-10 acres in the bush
Estimated sale price May 08: $690-$760K
Estimated sale price now: $630-$700K
Estimated rental now: $525-550 p.w.
Estimated bush purchase any time: $300-$400K

Would you take a lower price now, or rent the property out in anticipation of a price increase to at least the May estimated range?

Naturally this is a purely hypothetical question on behalf of a friend and is in no way an invitation to offer advice which would anyway not be taken because the details have been changed.

Cheers,

Ghoti


----------



## Happy (26 August 2008)

If anybody is in a position to tell how long property downturn will last, could be of assistance it this dilemma.

If you believe the mob that property prices will keep rising you should wait, otherwise sell and rent the other property as price might drop too – bet you did not think of this possibility


----------



## pepperoni (26 August 2008)

ghotib said:


> Enough of these global averages and national medians. Try this hypothetical situation:
> 
> Location: Sydney inner west
> Property: 490 sq m; freestanding house approx 90 years old; original features, solid condition; 2.5 bedrooms; 1.5 bathrooms; 2 living areas; 1-car garage; driveway shared with one neighbour (covenants on each title); backs onto park.
> ...




Rent both.

Inner west will outperfrm bush bo so much medium term its not funny.


----------



## white_goodman (26 August 2008)

Happy said:


> If anybody is in a position to tell how long property downturn will last, could be of assistance it this dilemma.
> 
> If you believe the mob that property prices will keep rising you should wait, otherwise sell and rent the other property as price might drop too – bet you did not think of this possibility




the property down turn will last till 
a)rents rise too high 
b)cost of borrowing becomes cheaper
C)both

when the market gets to that equilibrium point where its more financially sound to have a mortgage then pay the rent is when we shall see the next upturn, how long that is we shall wait and see, however typically a property cycle from trough to trough or peak to peak is 5-7 years....

though it is argued that we never really experienced a trough in the early 2000's but rather prices stagnated and then kept going up again circa 2002/2003, atleast in NSW


----------



## algis (26 August 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Re The transport industry is the Canary in the Coal mine !
> After ditching 380 contractors Kenworth are now laying off full time staff
> 
> 
> ...




Losses in trucking and large-car manufacturing can only be expected with peak oil.  Hopefully there is a shift in employment to train infrastructure and rolling stock.

As much as I like Falcons, Ford needed to spend millions on a new one like it needed a hole in the head.


----------



## ghotib (26 August 2008)

MODS!!!!  

I meant to post my hypothetical question about a hypothetical Sydney property to the falling house prices thread. I'll reply to the replies here, but should I post again in the right place or would somebody move the posts please?

Thanks

Ghoti (of the hypothetical brain)


----------



## ghotib (26 August 2008)

Happy said:


> If anybody is in a position to tell how long property downturn will last, could be of assistance it this dilemma.
> 
> If you believe the mob that property prices will keep rising you should wait, otherwise sell and rent the other property as price might drop too – bet you did not think of this possibility



You lose. Renting a place in the bush makes sense, whether the city place is sold or rented out. Another way to frame the question is to ask if the risk of a price fall on the city place is greater than the risk of losing out on a price gain. Only I don't know how to quantify a risk like that, so I'm in the process of building a spreadsheet that will show the effects of every scenario on the overall financial position. Hypothetically. For my friend. Of course. 

Ghoti


----------



## ghotib (26 August 2008)

pepperoni said:


> Rent both.
> 
> Inner west will outperfrm bush bo so much medium term its not funny.



I agree with that, but it might mean that city falls 5% and bush falls 15%, which might mean that the cost of the changeover in dollars goes up. I think. I haven't got that one in the spreadsheet yet. 

Shares are much easier to deal with; fewer variables. 
Tks, 

Ghoti


----------



## ghotib (26 August 2008)

white_goodman said:


> the property down turn will last till
> a)rents rise too high
> b)cost of borrowing becomes cheaper
> C)both
> ...



I think a lot of the Sydney market must be at that point now, but I don't see a shadow of a sign of an upturn. Seems to me buying and renting are both financially ridiculous for most people, and the sensible thing to do is to forget about buying in Sydney. Oh wait...  except for my friend's hypothetical house, of course. 

Cheers,

Ghoti


----------



## kingbrown (27 August 2008)

Looks as if the Victorian automotive sector is starting to take a hit through the supply chain imo many more lay offs to come  
Seems to be turning into a daily theme down here at the moment 


CAR axle component supplier Unidrive has announced it will sack 40 workers, due to the downturn experienced by major car manufacturers.

Ford last week announced 350 redundancies and a reduction in plant operating hours and earlier this year Mitsubishi closed it's Adelaide plant. 

Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU) secretary Steve Dargavel said the ramifications of those decisions were being felt by suppliers. 

He said the job losses at Unidrive's Melbourne factory were a clear result of Ford downsizing. 

*"Unidrive used to employ over 500 workers, now it is 150, and after September it will reduce to 110. *

"Unidrive's decision underscores the need for trade measures and industry policy that covers the entire automotive industry, inclusive of component suppliers. 

"As major car companies reduce production, the demand for parts decreases and the components and subsidiary suppliers are at threat." 

Mr Dargavel repeated the union's call for the federal and state governments to hold an urgent roundtable on the future of the automotive industry

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24248871-29277,00.html


----------



## fmz (27 August 2008)

Fairfax just announced to cut 550 jobs.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...across-business/2008/08/26/1219516472320.html


----------



## Beej (27 August 2008)

fmz said:


> Fairfax just announced to cut 550 jobs.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...across-business/2008/08/26/1219516472320.html




Old news - already posted on this thread a couple of days ago when first announced.

And just to contrast - here's a story about 300 jobs being CREATED: http://news.smh.com.au/national/300-jobs-to-be-created-at-vic-it-centre-20080827-43nh.html

Other jobs are being created all the time as well, it's just not big news right now. How many people do you think RIO and BHP etc are looking to hire right now for example???? My current employer is hiring. I'm not discounting the reality of job losses at the moment - the economy is slowing, and remember the regulators have deliberately engineered this situation. A consequence of that of course has to be job losses and an increase in unemployment.

However, the big question STILL is this all enough for us to actually be in recession? I've been in the work force through one REAL recession and also through the tech-bust (as an investor and technology professional working in Silicon Valley in the US). This, to me, does not feel like a real recession yet.... time will tell. There's still too many sectors and companies etc still doing quite well. Remember a downturn in one sector (say auto manufacturing or discretionary retail) does not necessarily a full blown national recession make..... the workforce is 10,000,000+ - so even 50 newspaper stories touting a few hundred job losses each only adds up to an increase in unemployment of < 0.2%, assuming NO new jobs are also created at the same time in the economy elsewhere to absorb those losses.....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## white_goodman (27 August 2008)

ghotib said:


> I think a lot of the Sydney market must be at that point now, but I don't see a shadow of a sign of an upturn. Seems to me buying and renting are both financially ridiculous for most people, and the sensible thing to do is to forget about buying in Sydney. Oh wait...  except for my friend's hypothetical house, of course.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Ghoti




well we obviously are not at that point, if rent was exactly the same price as mortgage repayments then we shall see an upturn in housing demand theoretically...


----------



## dhukka (27 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Old news - already posted on this thread a couple of days ago when first announced.
> 
> And just to contrast - here's a story about 300 jobs being CREATED: http://news.smh.com.au/national/300-jobs-to-be-created-at-vic-it-centre-20080827-43nh.html
> 
> ...




The last line of that story is of interest:



> The Victorian government has committed $5 million to support the construction of the 3,500 square metre centre.




I wonder how many jobs would have been created had the government not decided to use $5m of taxpayer money to help fund it?

Quite clearly in the US currently, the housing sector is in a depression, autos and retailers are in recession, the financial industry is in crisis but the energy industry is still arguably booming and other industries such as technology and healthcare are hanging in there quite well. You don't need very sector of the economy to be tanking at the same time for a recession. 

I think John Hussman summarises  well what happens in a recession.



> recessions emerge not because of a general decline in the willingness to consume, but rather because a mismatch emerges between the mix of goods and services demanded in the economy, and the mix of goods and services that the economy has been supplying. Many industries experience continued growth during recessions (even if their stocks trade somewhat lower), while other industries experience profound demand shifts. In the late 1990's, there was clear overinvestment in telecom and information technology, and these sectors suffered disproportionately during the recession that followed. In the current cycle, the overexpansion has been in housing, debt origination, and leveraged finance, so a much different group of stocks will probably be hung out to dry this time.


----------



## Beej (28 August 2008)

Dhukka - an interesting definition/explanation of recession. Not sure I agree! To have a real recession (ie actual net economic output reduction for a prolonged perios > 6 months) I think you must have a broad slowdown across basically all sectors, and especially you need a huge slump in consumption, as most other activity (non export driven) ultimately derives off that consumption.

Re government providing cash to IBM etc, well, one of the things governments (at any level) can do and do in fact do with fiscal policy during economic slow downs is stimulate via increased spending, so there is nothing sinister or unusual in that. It helps if you run surpluses etc and have billions of $$$ invested in sovereign funds (as Australia does right now), as you can ramp up fiscal stimulus without even having to borrow! Particularly helpful if the slowdown is being caused by a credit crisis! We have not yet really begun to see the impact of this sort of fiscal stimulus.

Because Oz has so much cash on the side-lines in these government funds, plus scope to significantly loosen monetary policy as interest rates are currently high, plus the stimulus from our dramatically increased terms of trade due to the ongoing resources super-cycle, I don't think we will dip into any sort of prolonged retraction over-all. I reckon this will all go down in the end as a "growth slow-down" for a couple of years, with the *possibility* of it being labeled a mild recession, but I don't think it will end up being a bad one. The fact it is taking so long to play out seems to support my point of view at this time. Of course a complete collapse of growth in China and the corresponding resource sector impact is the "wild card" that would change everything. No one can predict the future, it's all about probabilities!

FYI - US consumer confidence UP in July (2 months in a row now): http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

Didn't see this reported anywhere! Only bad news sells newspapers at the moment, as that is what it seems everyone wants to hear!

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## dhukka (28 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Dhukka - an interesting definition/explanation of recession. Not sure I agree! To have a real recession (ie actual net economic output reduction for a prolonged perios > 6 months) I think you must have a broad slowdown across basically all sectors, and especially you need a huge slump in consumption, as most other activity (non export driven) ultimately derives off that consumption.
> 
> Re government providing cash to IBM etc, well, one of the things governments (at any level) can do and do in fact do with fiscal policy during economic slow downs is stimulate via increased spending, so there is nothing sinister or unusual in that. It helps if you run surpluses etc and have billions of $$$ invested in sovereign funds (as Australia does right now), as you can ramp up fiscal stimulus without even having to borrow! Particularly helpful if the slowdown is being caused by a credit crisis! We have not yet really begun to see the impact of this sort of fiscal stimulus.
> 
> ...




Regardless of whether you agree, historically the fact is that some recessions have been called by the official bodies that make such calls, without broad slowdowns across all sectors.  You simply don't need a broad slowdown across all sectors to have an 'official' recession and you certainly don't need a 'huge' slump in consumption, the last US recession is proof of that. 

I agree there is nothing necessarily sinister about government spending but in the context of the previous post it was put forward as evidence of a strong economy creating jobs. My point is, is this really a sign of a strong economy if it is government subsidised? No doubt it's a positive to see jobs being created but it would be more encouraging if it were being created by private industry. 

It's nice to be sitting on surpluses and hopefully the government can deploy it efficiently if need be. interest rate cuts in the current environment, as we have seen in the US, will have little effect.  

Just to be clear I'm not making the case that Australia is definitely headed for recession. All the evidence to date points to a slowdown and nothing more. However, given that much of Australia's growth over the past decade has been driven by huge leverage leading to asset price inflation and we are now in a period of deflation and slowing growth, recession is a real possibility. 

Yeah no doubt consumer confidence is improving,  especially when US consumers see gas prices falling. Also a good report on durable goods last night bodes well for 3Q08 GDP.


----------



## algis (28 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Old news - already posted on this thread a couple of days ago when first announced.
> 
> And just to contrast - here's a story about 300 jobs being CREATED: http://news.smh.com.au/national/300-jobs-to-be-created-at-vic-it-centre-20080827-43nh.html
> 
> ...





New gas power station in Victoria creates 730 jobs:

http://news.smh.com.au/national/new-gas-power-station-creates-730-jobs-20080821-3z65.html


----------



## kingbrown (28 August 2008)

JOB CUTS 
August:
Car components company Unidrive sacks 40 workers.
Suncorp Metway can't rule out job losses.
Fairfax slashes 550 jobs across Australia and New Zealand.
Kenworth cuts 80 Melbourne manufacturing jobs.
Ford announces 350 redundancies at Broadmeadows and Geelong. The announcement follows 600 job losses at Geelong when the engine plant closes in 2010.
Roy Morgan Research sacks 56 Melbourne-based call centre workers.
Cadbury Schweppes announces 330 jobs to go in Victoria, New Zealand and Tasmania.
Boeing to cut more than 500 Melbourne jobs within 18 months.
683 Starbucks workers axed after the closure of 61 stores.
60 workers sacked at Ardmona's Shepparton and Mooroopna canneries.
Up to 70 workers at the Victorian Department of Primary Industries axed.
Diners Club sacks 130 Melbourne workers.
24 jobs at Wangaratta textile firm Australian Country Spinners cut.

July:
Dons Smallgoods sacks 620 workers, 400 in Victoria.
Qantas to axe up to 1500 jobs, all but 100 expected to be in Australia.
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) announces 600 job cuts.
The closure of Dartmoor sawmill costs 130 jobs.

June:
South Pacific Tyres announces 587 job cuts at Somerton tyre plant.
GM Holden axes 531 job at its Fisherman's Bend plant.
About 100 Kleins Jewellery employees to be made redundant after collapse of the Dandenong South based business.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/victorian-economy-to-go-into-a-recession-20080827-43na.html?page=3


----------



## kingbrown (28 August 2008)

*Victorian economy to 'go into a recession'*
Mex Cooper 
August 27, 2008

Thousands of recent Victorian job cuts are just the beginning with the state's economy headed for recession, according to an economist.


*- Recession on way
- More dismissals
- Confidence 'evaporating'*


Monash University Economics Professor Jakob Madsen said Victorians should brace themselves for more job losses and economic pain as the economy continues to slide.

"We will see a much higher increase in dismissals as we are going to go into a recession," he said.

"I think it's going to easily last a couple of years or longer. A recession historically lasts for a couple of years and I can see no reason why it would be shorter than that."

Professor Madsen said Victoria's manufacturing industry had lost its competitive edge due to the strength of the Australian dollar.

He said as the European and United States' credit crisis hit home the economy would begin to crumble.

Mr Dargavel said Victoria's role as the nation's manufacturing engine room 
had seen it bear the brunt of recent job cuts 
with mass sackings at Ford, GM Holden, South Pacific Tyres, Kenworth and Don Small Goods wiping out nearly 2,200 Victorian manufacturing jobs since June.
recent figures were not so rosy with the total number of full-time employed Victorians dropped by more than 16,000 from the start of the year to the end of July and the state's 4.6% unemployment rate above the national average of 4.3%, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force figures.

Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu said business confidence in Victoria was evaporating.

Melbourne Institute economist Michael Chua predicted job cuts would continue for the next two months but rejected suggestions of a prolonged economic downturn.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/victorian-economy-to-go-into-a-recession-20080827-43na.html?page=3

Any comments ?
Somethings up ?


----------



## dhukka (28 August 2008)

algis said:


> New gas power station in Victoria creates 730 jobs:
> 
> http://news.smh.com.au/national/new-gas-power-station-creates-730-jobs-20080821-3z65.html




Don't want to detract from what is obviously positive news, however it should be noted that Santos expects to make an investment decision on the project by the end of 2009 so those 730 construction jobs won't be created until 2010 at the earliest.


----------



## Beej (28 August 2008)

Surprise increase in business investment in the June quarter:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/surprise-jump-in-investment-20080828-44gh.html

Beej


----------



## Beej (28 August 2008)

dhukka said:


> Don't want to detract from what is obviously positive news, however it should be noted that Santos expects to make an investment decision on the project by the end of 2009 so those 730 construction jobs won't be created until 2010 at the earliest.




Fair enough but the same applies for some of the reported job losses - eg Qantas - they haven't actually got rid of anyone yet, but plan to do so via voluntary redundancies, early retirements etc as well as forced redundancies over some period of time. Also the Boeing jobs - being lost over 18 months which takes some of those losses out to 2010 as well, etc etc.

This is really glass half empty/glass half full stuff to some extent!

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## dhukka (28 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Surprise increase in business investment in the June quarter:
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/surprise-jump-in-investment-20080828-44gh.html
> 
> Beej




And the expectations for 2008-09 were very bullish revised up to a 26% increase.


----------



## IFocus (28 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Old news - already posted on this thread a couple of days ago when first announced.




Anyone notice its due to a drop off in advertising revenues............is it a case of the wrong business model or a slow down?


----------



## robots (28 August 2008)

hello,

interesting when i rolled the pushie into the local beauripares shop (5.05pm) to buy a new battery for the wagon,

the salesman "gleefully" commented how I was the only one to pay via eftpos selecting "savings", 

all these flash cars there too, surely everything not on credit cards, they all must pay by the 15th of the month i reckon

not sure if it is job losses that is causing this extra-ordinary activity

thankyou
robots


----------



## Adam A (28 August 2008)

Us aussies have the largest credit card debt in the world!! apparently

I dont know if its because a lot of people put all their earnings into the home loan then pay of the balance of the credit card each month(in theory) 

Or are they doing it for the points? 

I do know that domayne in sydney now have 5 years interest free, unreal, is this some kind of record?


----------



## Beej (28 August 2008)

Adam A said:


> Us aussies have the largest credit card debt in the world!! apparently
> 
> I dont know if its because a lot of people put all their earnings into the home loan then pay of the balance of the credit card each month(in theory)
> 
> ...




Well I have a $10k credit card limit. I used to have to travel a lot for work (o/s every couple of months) so would rack up several thousands of $$$ each time that would get paid back in full by the due date by my employer.

Additionally, I have for nearly 10 years now always put as much personal expenditure as possible through my CC - in order to gain FF points, and also in order to save on interest utilising the interest free period (and have the money saving or earning interest somewhere else for that time). I probably put $1k-$3k every month through my CC this way, but it is ALWAYS paid in full every month (automatically even) on the due date.

So I do wonder how many other people run their finances in this way? I know many other people who do the same thing. Of course this all shows up as CC "debt" in the official statistics, but it isn't really from my perspective at all as I pay $0 in interest. So i always take some of those figures with a BIG grain of salt.

PS: The FF points are not worth as much now as they used to be, but I still managed I think 2 return trips to Europe and one to Canada (skiing in all cases) on the FF points earned from my CC. I won't add to that all the other "free" flights, upgrades etc I've got from the FF points earned through business travel  A small consolation for all the time away from family and friends....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## numbercruncher (29 August 2008)

Adam A said:


> Us aussies have the largest credit card debt in the world!! apparently
> 
> I dont know if its because a lot of people put all their earnings into the home loan then pay of the balance of the credit card each month(in theory)
> 
> ...





Debt to GDP in 06 was 145 percent ....

Now in 2008 its 165 percent ....

Just before the Great Depression began in 1929, the ratio was 80 per cent ....


----------



## Adam A (29 August 2008)

I guess thats what happens when people start using their houses as ATMs

In my circle of contacts friends and assoc many many people are living very close to the edge, one or two pay checks away from financial disaster,god help them if any of them lose their jobs or second income!

When people started lining up to save 3cents a litre of petrol that was warning bells for me. 

Lets hope that this is wake up call for many folk


----------



## Beej (29 August 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Debt to GDP in 06 was 145 percent ....
> 
> Now in 2008 its 165 percent ....
> 
> Just before the Great Depression began in 1929, the ratio was 80 per cent ....




Yea, and just before the great depression most people had to go outside to go to the toilet.... so what??? Apples and oranges....

PS: I notice no-one has yet posted the positive surprise in the latest US GDP figures:

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/consu...conomy_dc_5;_ylt=AiwMboDVyQ7EqTB13OIg8GWb.HQA

So despite all the doom and gloom, the US economy still actually grew quite strongly in the last quarter. Again, I'm not saying that this quarter may not be bad, and there is certainly evidence that things have slowed over there since end of June. However, it certainly seems that all the pundits claiming the US has been in recession since the end of last year were/are wrong.....

I suspect the Oz numbers for the June quarter will not be too bad either. Especially given that the company earnings or outlook have been as bad as many expected.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## numbercruncher (29 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Yea, and just before the great depression most people had to go outside to go to the toilet.... so what??? Apples and oranges....
> 
> PS: I notice no-one has yet posted the positive surprise in the latest US GDP figures:





?? whatever you reckon matey ...


So US gets growth in GDP but mental inflation .... yes grrrrreat news im sure .... Just go ask the Average sepo whose wage has actually fallen since 2001 ...



> Consumer prices were up more than 5 percent in July compared to a year before; that's the biggest jump in nearly 20 years. Wholesale prices are rising even faster


----------



## Beej (29 August 2008)

Beej said:


> I suspect the Oz numbers for the June quarter will not be too bad either. Especially given that the company earnings or outlook have been as bad as many expected.




Sorry that sentence above should read:

I suspect the Oz numbers for the June quarter will not be too bad either. Especially given that the company earnings or outlook have NOT been as bad as many expected.

Beej


----------



## dhukka (29 August 2008)

Beej said:


> Yea, and just before the great depression most people had to go outside to go to the toilet.... so what??? Apples and oranges....
> 
> PS: I notice no-one has yet posted the positive surprise in the latest US GDP figures:
> 
> ...




On the contrary, the GDP number was hardly strong. Nominal GDP grew at an annualised *4.5%* (below trend) and this is with rebate checks. Then to get real GDP we have to adjust for inflation. Inflation in the US is currently running at *5%*, (and that is if you believe the official figures). However, the BEA uses something called the PCE deflator. Theses geniuses would have us believe that inflation for 2Q08 was *1.2%* at an annualised rate whilst oil hit record highs. So we subtract 1.2% from 4.5% and get real or inflation adjusted GDP of *3.3%*. Magical stuff.  

Despite the fantasy GDP number it does little to dent the case for a US recession. Fortunately the NBER, the organization that officially decides recessions understands the folly of relying on GDP and doesn't use GDP in it's estimates. In fact most of the metrics it uses don't even feed into GDP.  

David Rosenberg of Merril Lynch sums it up well. 



> 1) Employment
> The NBER relies on four different variables. The first is employment. Now I've told you before; employment is down seven months in a row. Does employment go in the GDP? The answer is no. Is it correlated? Yes. Does it help grow the business cycle? Of course.
> 
> 2) Industrial production
> ...







Beej said:


> I suspect the Oz numbers for the June quarter will not be too bad either. Especially given that the company earnings or outlook have been as bad as many expected.




I had expected corporate profits to be quite robust for FY08 however I heard Craig James of Comsec say yesterday that earnings were down *-3%*, much worse than I had expected and we haven't really even begun to slow down that much yet in Australia. What are profits going to look like next year in a slower economy and with the credit crunch still hanging around? As for aussie GDP, the economists will no doubt be revising their estimates up after yesterday's strong capex number.


----------



## gav (29 August 2008)

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> interesting when i rolled the pushie into the local beauripares shop (5.05pm) to buy a new battery for the wagon,
> 
> ...





What Beaurepaires was that Robots?  My brother works at one, they are more busy now than ever.  They need to put $4K through the till each day to make a profit, and have been averaging $6-8K per day as of late


----------



## robots (29 August 2008)

hello,

malvern rd, prahran

the stores are very nice and modern, chap behind counter was great,

taking back old battery in morning for disposal

thankyou
robots


----------



## dhukka (29 August 2008)

Although not in Australia, it's good to see some more jobs being created. Might even make up for some of the people who lose their bank jobs. 



> *FDIC Adds Office Space in Dallas, Ready for More Bank Failures*
> 
> The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is preparing to sign a five-year lease to add five floors of space at its Dallas regional office as the agency prepares to increase scrutiny of failing and troubled U.S. banks.
> 
> ...


----------



## alwaysLearning (2 September 2008)

Dollar's big drop could save us from recession

What do you guys think of this article?
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24280440-5017313,00.html


----------



## moXJO (2 September 2008)

alwaysLearning said:


> Dollar's big drop could save us from recession





So long as price of oil stays down as well, or the price at the pump will kill me.

Construction in my area still going strong.Still seems to be a lot of money floating round as well.


----------



## kingbrown (3 September 2008)

*'Links with Asia' might halt recession*

Australia's strong relationship with Asia may save it from recession, Commonwealth Bank boss Ralph Norris says.

Figures out on Wednesday are likely to show the economy is slowing with economists predicting 0.4 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for the three months to the end of June, taking the annual growth rate to 2.9 per cent, the slowest rate since the last quarter of 2006.

*"There is no doubt that the economy is slowing," *
Mr Norris told the Nine Network on Wednesday.

http://news.theage.com.au/business/links-with-asia-might-halt-recession-20080903-488i.html


----------



## kingbrown (3 September 2008)

STRUGGLING childcare group ABC Learning is planning to *slash its part-time workforce by 1000 *or more in an effort to save up to $26 million each year and stem losses that threaten the company's future.

Alongside its 16,000 permanent employees, Australia's biggest childcare company employs up to 1600 part-time staff through agencies, but is reworking the rosters and redeploying staff as part of the overhaul of its Australian and New Zealand operations by chief executive Eddy Groves. 

Under the union agreement, ABC must have over 35 per cent of its staff on the full 38-hour week, but Mr Groves would not say how many more were on the full allocation. 

*Under the agreement, anyone employed for less than 38 hours can have their hours varied by 30 per cent. 

People close to the company said ABC employed thousands of staff on 37.5 hours.*
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24284533-20142,00.html


----------



## Temjin (3 September 2008)

dhukka said:


> On the contrary, the GDP number was hardly strong. Nominal GDP grew at an annualised *4.5%* (below trend) and this is with rebate checks. Then to get real GDP we have to adjust for inflation. Inflation in the US is currently running at *5%*, (and that is if you believe the official figures). However, the BEA uses something called the PCE deflator. Theses geniuses would have us believe that inflation for 2Q08 was *1.2%* at an annualised rate whilst oil hit record highs. So we subtract 1.2% from 4.5% and get real or inflation adjusted GDP of *3.3%*. Magical stuff.
> 
> Despite the fantasy GDP number it does little to dent the case for a US recession. Fortunately the NBER, the organization that officially decides recessions understands the folly of relying on GDP and doesn't use GDP in it's estimates. In fact most of the metrics it uses don't even feed into GDP.




Exactly right here dhukka. Though some people tend to choose to believe in what the media say all the time. 

It's a fact that if the "old" formula was used to calculate inflation for the US, it would have been like 10+%. This is a FACT, though not very well known because the government has managed to make the changes quietly. 

The general public sentiment and the media would obviously go crazy if the old formula was used. There was no valid reasons why it was changed except to mask the actual inflation that was existed in the economy. 

Regardless, the GDP value itself is being manipulated to make the public think that everything is "ok". Why would the US economy be booming by spending beyond their mean anyway? How would a "stimulus" check, which was funded through by printing money, would help their economy anyway?

Sometime people only believe in what they want to hear.


----------



## Beej (6 September 2008)

I love Ross Gittins - great and balanced economic analysis in terms we can all understand; Read his latest arlicle on his view if the current state if the economy here: http://business.smh.com.au/business/unseen-factors-keep-us-strong-20080905-4an3.html?page=2

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Beej (11 September 2008)

So while everyone was busy posting here all the headline job losses through August, it seems that more broadly the economy was chugging away quite nicely and may have actually ADDED nearly 15,000 jobs - bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% - that doesn't sound like a recession yet to me!

http://business.smh.com.au/business/surprise-jump-in-jobs-20080911-4e9c.html

To be honest, this exceeded even my more optimistic (or is that less pessimistic?) views on what might have been happening with employment over the past couple of months.... I am wondering even if the figure may be adjusted down next month?

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## aleckara (11 September 2008)

Adam A said:


> Us aussies have the largest credit card debt in the world!! apparently
> 
> I dont know if its because a lot of people put all their earnings into the home loan then pay of the balance of the credit card each month(in theory)
> 
> ...




What is really interesting is the way credit card companies charge their transaction fees as opposed to EFTPOS. While they charge more the cost is bourne by the business. When you hit 'Savings' on the machine you normally have to pay a bank fee in addition to the amount. Businesses raise prices of goods in the store to accomodate users of credit in most places (expect Aldi, and so on where there is a cc surcharge). So what is the incentive of the normal person hitting 'Savings', when they still have to pay the high price of the good + the bank fee? Of course if everyone paid by Savings instead of cc this problem wouldnt be the case but the cc companies have made it one of those things that everyone has to do it, otherwise the person who isn't is getting screwed.

The RBA has mentioned this numerous times in their effors to reform the payments system over the years.


----------



## gfresh (11 September 2008)

Beej: The ANZ number of job ads have generally seen as a more reliable forward indicator. The regular unemployment figures have trailed this over the last couple of decades. 

With a -4.9% reduction in the last month in job ads, employment in a few months may not look so healthy.  

Will have to see of course, nothing is ever certain. 

dhukka has posted such data on his website with a nice comparison of the measured rate and the ANZ ad index (http://www.fundamentalanalyst.blogspot.com/


----------



## dhukka (11 September 2008)

Beej said:


> So while everyone was busy posting here all the headline job losses through August, it seems that more broadly the economy was chugging away quite nicely and may have actually ADDED nearly 15,000 jobs - bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1% - that doesn't sound like a recession yet to me!
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/surprise-jump-in-jobs-20080911-4e9c.html
> 
> ...





No doubt the employment report was a little better than expected but nothing to get overly excited about. Consider that the Australian economy needs between *15 -20k* job growth per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. So why did the unemployment rate fall? Simple, the participation rate or the number of people looking for work, fell. 

The abs has been making changes to their survey data, basically reducing the size of their survey which has the effect of increasing the error rate. So there will definitely be revsions but they could just as likely be to the upside as the downside. 

Also remember that the employment numbers are a lagging indicator. By the time the employment numbers confirm a weak economy the slowdown is well underway. If we are going into recession you wouldn't expect to see back to back declines in employment until 2009.


----------



## dhukka (11 September 2008)

gfresh said:


> Beej: The ANZ number of job ads have generally seen as a more reliable forward indicator. The regular unemployment figures have trailed this over the last couple of decades.
> 
> With a -4.9% reduction in the last month in job ads, employment in a few months may not look so healthy.
> 
> ...




Beat me to it.

*Job Ads Signal Warning for Labour Market *


----------



## Beej (11 September 2008)

dhukka said:


> Also remember that the employment numbers are a lagging indicator. By the time the employment numbers confirm a weak economy the slowdown is well underway. If we are going into recession you wouldn't expect to see back to back declines in employment until 2009.




Yes yes all true - BUT this thread was full of headline articles about job losses announced during August - yet the August net employment numbers are quite good. Perhaps all those losses haven't yet hit the figures? Who knows, but all I know as that in my experience the longer doomsayers "predict" a downturn without it eventuating, the less chance that it is actually going to happen, or be as bad as predicted. The real bad ones take almost everyone by complete surprise....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## pepperoni (11 September 2008)

dhukka said:


> Beat me to it.
> 
> *Job Ads Signal Warning for Labour Market *




Whoa nice web site!

Ive been following threads like this and the severe correction thread and I notice there are are some real guns posting Im just too new to put the names to all the good posts I read!

I did notice Dhukka posted the lehman results here before they could be found through google news .. I eventually found it myself on the lehman website.


----------



## dhukka (11 September 2008)

Beej said:


> Yes yes all true - BUT this thread was full of headline articles about job losses announced during August - yet the August net employment numbers are quite good. Perhaps all those losses haven't yet hit the figures? Who knows, but all I know as that in my experience the longer doomsayers "predict" a downturn without it eventuating, the less chance that it is actually going to happen, or be as bad as predicted. The real bad ones take almost everyone by complete surprise....
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej





Once again Beej, where were all these predictions of massive job losses in August?  Quote me one. You and I both agreed a few pages prior that job losses announced don't mean they are laid off straight away. Posts here suggested job losses are on the way. And they most certainy are, all the evidence points to it and today's report doesn't detract from the case.  Whether that eventuates into recession like job losses is another matter.


----------



## Green08 (28 September 2008)

The Sydney Morning Herald - Weekend edition Sep 27 - 28 2008 Pg 28

"Since 1788, Australia has experienced 26 recessions and four depressions.  In total, they account for 22 of Australia's 220-year history of European settlement.  The good times overhwhelm the bad.  Only four in a hundred Australian's experienced the antion's last depression from 1929 to1933, and they would have been very young then.

....The depressions occurred in 1788-89 (Captain Arthur Phillip's colony), 1840 - 1846, the 1890's and 1929 - 33..."


----------



## Glen48 (28 September 2008)

John Howard won the last election he could have done a lot more with the money and time in power instead of spending $380M running a GST  unchain ny heart, buying vote add's. etc 
He is now out of power and doesn't have to answer to any one and gets all the perks.
I wonder where we would be now if Withlam have of got his Kemlani money to buy back the farm?
We might not get much of a recession it could go straight to a depression.
I have sold my house and could buy back in again in 2015 when they have bottomed. 
29/08 Brisbane paper had add's to Bently's, Ferarri, Lambo's etc for sale the first time I have seen 30 add's on the one page. A UK car lot use to have 10 Porches now has 80. 
MY shop lease is due for renewal 01/09 and I won't be signing even if income doubled.
I am going to sit here and hope youse all (Fench speak ) shine a light for me.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2008)

dhukka said:


> Posts here suggested job losses are on the way. And they most certainy are, all the evidence points to it and today's report doesn't detract from the case.



Cadbury is about to get rid of another 17 employees in Hobart. 

Also there are very strong rumors, not being denied by the company, that Incat may axe up to 200 non-permanent staff. 

Meanwhile timber giant Gunns is attempting to sell off quite a bit of its' timber resources in order to reduce debt. That sounds a tad ominous.

The only good news is the rain which is helping improve the Hydro's situation and is presumably helping farmers as well. Both have been hit hard by the 11 year drought and whilst there's been nowhere near enough rain to say it's over, at least it is actually raining.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 September 2008)

Smurf1976 said:


> Also there are very strong rumors, not being denied by the company, that Incat may axe up to 200 non-permanent staff.



21 gone so far in two separate cuts.


----------



## gfresh (3 October 2008)

Looks like there will be cuts for Suncorp quite soon. 

I'm not sure how things will play out for QLD. We have a lot less large businesses headquartered here than in Sydney and Melbourne. There is the money that comes from coal, and agriculture, but hard to say whether that will drop off or not. Lots of both public and private construction going on in Brisbane. 

Any thoughts?

_
http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/clouds-gathering-over-suncorp-20081001-4s2f.html

Clouds gathering over Suncorp

MichaelWest | October 2, 2008

The job losses have begun at Suncorp. In an email from its chief executive, John Mulcahy, to staff yesterday - obtained by BusinessDay - he said there would be "changes to the level of work across our organisation".

The memo put no number on the redundancy program. Sources close to management said last month the plan was to sack or redeploy 1500 people.

A spokesman for Suncorp said earlier this week that Suncorp did not have a particular figure in mind for redundancies. There was no budgeted number, he said..._


----------



## moXJO (21 October 2008)

All new large jobs have now stopped coming in the past 3 weeks. Might get one final push of construction with the fhog in the coming months before it gets really quiet.


----------



## chops_a_must (30 October 2008)

My engineer mate who alerted me to AED's failings well before they were known, who does a lot of project work for Woodside, says that Woodside have been getting rid of contractors left, right and centre. North Rankin B is all but completely off.

And the project he is working in now, is likely to be the last design work Woodside is likely to put out for quite some time. And everything they have already done now is going to be shelved until a later date. And that means everything...

Apparently this is sector wide with the oil and gas industry as well.

West Perth is going to be a very vacant place once again if these engineering groups stop getting work...


----------



## bribieman (30 October 2008)

I have the same info, Minning industry will have to lay off thousands. If it costs 2.65 a pound to get copper out to exchange and the market price in 1.70 per pound it is only a short amount of time to see some mines close until prices recover.The finance industry after this savings G'tee crisis will be alot lighter. If your a fund Manager or admin staff for one these frozen Funds I reccommend seek.com.au. They seem to have nowhere to go.

Once the public see that Australia hands out 9.4 miilion a week in hand outs to the car industry that delivers 5% of purchases to australian consumers.  One also would think that industry will also be shut down. This has gained momentum this week due to GM and CHRYSLER 10billion merger request.

So Jobs are not looking good for the next 2 years.

Looks like "R" to me?


----------



## gfresh (31 October 2008)

.. estimated 10,000 jobs to go from the banks by September next year  That's 6.5% of workforce. 

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...s-to-cut-10000-jobs-in-fis-KX2TK?OpenDocument



> *KPMG predicts Aust's banks to slash 10,000 jobs in fiscal 2009*
> 
> By a staff reporter
> 
> ...


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 October 2008)

bribieman said:


> I have the same info, Minning industry will have to lay off thousands. If it costs 2.65 a pound to get copper out to exchange and the market price in 1.70 per pound it is only a short amount of time to see some mines close until prices recover.The finance industry after this savings G'tee crisis will be alot lighter. If your a fund Manager or admin staff for one these frozen Funds I reccommend seek.com.au. They seem to have nowhere to go.
> 
> Once the public see that Australia hands out 9.4 miilion a week in hand outs to the car industry that delivers 5% of purchases to australian consumers.  One also would think that industry will also be shut down. This has gained momentum this week due to GM and CHRYSLER 10billion merger request.
> 
> ...




According to experts at the URBA (Un-Reserve Bank of Australia) -

- They are very happy with the way the finance sector has responded to URBA market manipulations.

- They insist there will be no recession in Australia.

I love the men in black at the URBA. 
I feel totally secure when they speak such comfortings.
I do so love it now they are manipulating the markets on a dailly basis. It feels like a jolly good massage.. ooo-er.
I love that the URBA never worry us with confusing, nasty "monetary" figures. You know, how much they are throwing into the Big Bonfire every day. They just wave the ol' magick wands and all our problems go *poof*.


----------



## Glen48 (31 October 2008)

From DR.
U.S. government debt grew by $800 billion between September 1st and yesterday? Seriously. Nearly half that is since the first of October alone. 

 When people talk of economic crises they inevitably refer to the Wall Street crash of 1929 and its aftermath in the Great Depression. That is the classic crash, just as the 1720 London collapse of the South Sea Bubble was the classic crash of the eighteenth century. Incidentally, for those who would like to align the business cycle with the cycle of sun spots, 1720 to 1929 is 209 years. If the solar cycle is taken as 10.45 years, then the gap from the South Sea Bubble to the Wall Street crash is precisely 20 solar cycles. The 1929 crash seems to confirm the calculations made by the Victorian economist William Stanley Jevons in the late 1870s. His observations could have been used to forecast the Wall Street crash fifty years before it happened.

I am rather sceptical of these precise cycles, but the similarity of different crises, the big and the little, is undoubted. They give us the best indicator of what to expect next. Banking crises are followed by recessions. That is the history of the past and it is only too likely to repeat itself now. 

William Rees-Mogg


----------



## Glen48 (31 October 2008)

I heard Autobarn is in receivership?


----------



## grace (31 October 2008)

Here is Charlie Aitkin's feedback from a few on what is happening in our economy.  As it is not really advice, but just feedback from the public, I posted it up here...... 



> So below is a "no names summary" of what is going on in certain parts of the Australian economy.
> 
> I suppose the most concerning thing for me was the consistent feedback from the SME sector that "days debtors" were blowing out. Common feedback was "people are taking longer to pay", "it's hard to get paid", and "financing inventory is particularly difficult". Interestingly, many SMEs reported that consumers were now using cash or EFTPOS rather than credit cards to spend, which either means credit cards are "maxed out", or consumers are actually using savings over credit to fund purchases. Similarly, there are many people reporting that the major credit card companies are being far more vigilant in policing account balances and arrears. Even I have had a call from Amex about an account balance and I have never paid an account late! I suspect consumer credit is getting significantly tighter as you would expect in a "credit crisis".
> 
> ...


----------



## moXJO (1 December 2008)

Quiet for about 2-3 weeks before work started to come back in again. Shops are packed full (not sure if people are spending as much though). I was looking at buying another work ute a Nissan navara or Toyota hilux second hand called up three different car yard listings in the paper and all had sold that day. I know actual state and national figures are far from rosy and a lot are doing it tough. But I think the majority of people my way seem to not be caring to much about financial doom and its life as normal with money being a bit tight. In day to day life this whole crisis has not been as bad as it could have. 

Whether Australia is just enjoying an extended lag period before it all catches up with us remains to be seen. I was banking on a nasty downturn but would be happy if we avoid it. Next year may well be the deal breaker though. This whole process seems to be very slow moving. Perhaps it was because I was waiting from the housing price peak in anticipation of bargains down the track. One hell of a wait.


----------



## Sith1s (1 December 2008)

If you're talking about un/employent i may be able to confirm a few things.

Working in recruitment i haven't had so many candidates (people looking for work) on my books in a long time.  Especially when i compare it to how it was last year.

Alot of my key clients (warehousing/distribution) are very slow and only have 1/4 of the casuals compared to last year.  Things could change next week when KRudd hands out that bonus to everyone, but i don't see it happening.


----------



## arco (1 December 2008)

*Toxic wife and Toxic Assets: When the Money Goes get Ready for Divorce.*

Leave it to the sense and sensibility of the United Kingdom to talk about the gold-digging wives that are now leaving their high income husbands for greener pastures.  This isn’t an uncommon thing.  We have witnessed high profile celebrities and athletes fall from grace only to see their “loved one” depart once things got bad.  That for better or for worse simply reflected the better aspect of life.  At the same time, many of these high powered men knew exactly what they were getting into when they married.  Let us take a look at a wonderful article in the Telegraph discussing this new emerging phenomenon:

“(Telegraph) You loser!” screamed Katie, aiming a vase at her husband. “You’ve destroyed my life,” she continued, hurling it.”Just look at my hair, look at my nails! You loser, you jerk, you nobody.”

Katie’s husband, Jack, whose property portfolio disintegrated in the financial crash, had just told his wife that she would have to cut back on her thrice-weekly visits to Nicky Clarke, the nail salon in Harvey Nichols, and the oxygen facials, chemical peels and seaweed wraps at Space NK.”

Lovely.  All the money in the world and still no piece of mind.  Talk about a royal mess.  Oxygen facials?  Isn’t that like driving really fast with your head out the window?  Yet there is one group that is enjoying this upsurge in financial destruction.  Divorce attorneys:

“Indeed, lawyers and financial advisers have reported a 50 per cent increase in the number of divorce inquiries since the financial markets collapsed in September.

A recent survey conducted by community website makefriendsonline revealed that a third of 10,000 respondents believe that financial hardship will cause a relationship to fail, while matrimonial law specialists Mishcon de Reya have reported up to 300 per cent more inquiries.”

Even in the U.S. financial troubles are the number one cause for divorce.  I would venture to say that when money is tight, you have to rely on other things that material wealth cannot purchase.  Given our GDP is based on 71% consumption, little substance is there once the money is taken away for many.

Aside from divorce attorneys, you can also go long dating agencies which seem to be serving as a bridge loan for some of these gold-diggers looking to jump ship:

“”So why did she walk out on you?” I asked.

”She has a very high standard of living,” he said. ”She’s never taken the Tube or a bus; it’s always taxis. And she likes to eat out a lot, at the best restaurants, and she likes to buy expensive gifts for people she wants to impress.

“As soon as the financial wobbles started, she must have joined some upmarket dating agency because somehow she”s found another very rich man pretty damn fast.”


----------



## numbercruncher (2 December 2008)

Last night on a current affair they showed a car dealership in Vic about to auction off ALL its new stock NO RESERVE ! first time in Australian history ....

Also said that by next year at this stage 50pc of Aussie car dealerships wont be able to finance the cost of holding stock ! = mass unemployment .....


Good if you want a nice cheap car huh ? 

Maybe all the unemployed Car salesmen can go sell realestate cause apparently that booms forever !


----------



## moXJO (2 December 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Last night on a current affair they showed a car dealership in Vic about to auction off ALL its new stock NO RESERVE ! first time in Australian history ....
> 
> Also said that by next year at this stage 50pc of Aussie car dealerships wont be able to finance the cost of holding stock ! = mass unemployment .....
> 
> ...




When I was in a car yard the other day one mentioned about financing with a shadow mortgage wasn't to sure or interested at the time of what that was.
A lot of the salesman seemed to have no idea of the current financial situation and funny enough one was telling me house prices have bottomed and everything will be going fantastic next year. There were plenty of cars I was not interested in that were going cheap


----------



## gfresh (2 December 2008)

If you want a large car or v8 the discounts are pretty large right now, especially from Holden. Many models/manufacturers they're not dropping as large as I'd like, so it's not across the board. Reading some of that over the last few weeks re car dealers, I was expecting them to offer crazy deals, but they weren't biting  

Have to remember that the prices on the second hand market will also fall through the floor during a recession, as less buyers there too, so buying a new car isn't always a good idea unless depreciation isn't a concern.


----------



## numbercruncher (2 December 2008)

Yah my car has been hammered on depreciation, cost 30k 2 years ago, now its worth 15 - bright side is you see little depreciation from here out ...


----------



## gfresh (3 March 2009)

bump  

December GDP numbers look like they'll turn a negative - Swan seems to be buttering people up to let out the news later this week. 

I doubt this quarter will be any better at all when it comes out in a couple of months, so that would be officially a recession.


----------



## dhukka (3 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> bump
> 
> December GDP numbers look like they'll turn a negative - Swan seems to be buttering people up to let out the news later this week.
> 
> I doubt this quarter will be any better at all when it comes out in a couple of months, so that would be officially a recession.




Actually, given last week's capex numbers, there is a good chance 4Q08 will be positive and most probably better than 3Q08.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (3 March 2009)

we're not even close to the end. we're not even close to the beginning of the end. we're only at the end of the beginning.

credit contraction drops production. first stage (end of which we are now at)

drop in production contracts credit. second stage (beginning of which we are now at)

contraction in credit drops production. third stage (which will occur later this year)

eventually all the bad production will be cleaned out of the economy and growth will begin again. when will this happen?

when lenders start lending to capitalists with valid production proposals.

HOWEVER!!!****!!!!

will there be any credit for this when governments world wide are spending trillions of dollars of borrowed money?! governments are inefficient spenders of money. money they spent is money that is not available for capitalists to borrow.

government stimulus is making the situation worse, and will mire the world in the recession (and possibly depression) swamp for a long long time. it didnt work in the great depression (and many argue govt intervention is what caused it) and it wont work now.

anyone know about the 1890 recession? no? cause governments didnt interfere to make things worse.


----------



## gfresh (4 March 2009)

-0.5% for the December quarter.. halfway there folks 

http://business.theage.com.au/business/recession-fear-as-gdp-shrinks-20090304-8nw6.html



> The Australian economy contracted in the final three months of last year, surprising analysts and suggesting the nation will enter a recession this year.
> 
> Gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter dipped 0.5%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said, following a 0.1% rise in the third quarter. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected the economy to grow by 0.2% in the fourth quarter.


----------



## dhukka (4 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> -0.5% for the December quarter.. halfway there folks
> 
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/recession-fear-as-gdp-shrinks-20090304-8nw6.html




Well there you go, capex numbers and Rudd's handouts were still not enough to eke out a positive number. Once again the RBA have egg on their faces.


----------



## Aussiejeff (4 March 2009)

dhukka said:


> Well there you go, capex numbers and Rudd's handouts were still not enough to eke out a positive number. Once again *the RBA have egg on their faces.*




..or worse, seeing as how they appear to have their heads stuck up their own bums. :arsch:


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## Temjin (4 March 2009)

And by reading the comments on news.com.au, you can see the sentiment is still not permisstic enough! 

A lot of people still think we wouldn't be in a technical recession because of China, great banks, Kevin Rudd, etc, etc. They need a good dose of gloom and doom along with depression-inducing medicine before we can declare this is all over.


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## metric (4 March 2009)

Temjin said:


> And by reading the comments on news.com.au, you can see the sentiment is still not permisstic enough!
> 
> A lot of people still think we wouldn't be in a technical recession because of China, great banks, Kevin Rudd, etc, etc. They need a good dose of gloom and doom along with depression-inducing medicine before we can declare this is all over.




the majority of people have no idea what is to come.


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## Aussiejeff (4 March 2009)

Temjin said:


> And by reading the comments on news.com.au,* you can see the sentiment is still not permisstic enough!*
> 
> A lot of people still think we wouldn't be in a technical recession because of China, great banks, Kevin Rudd, etc, etc. *They need a good dose of gloom and doom along with depression-inducing medicine before we can declare this is all over.*




Amen to that! 

There's nothing worse than this "death by a thousand cuts" inexorable grinding slide. Fer gawd's sake, will all yous optimists just SELL - NOW! - and help give my small cash stash potentially more "buying power" for 2010!


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## Glen48 (4 March 2009)

This explains it all:
adult: "Our government borrows money every year."

child: "Where does the money come from? How can we always be in debt and not have to pay it off?"

adult: "We are in debt to ourselves."

child: "That doesn't make any sense!"

adult: "It is based on fractional reserve banking. Banks do not have to have all the money that they lend."

child: "That sounds silly! And why is the government bailing out the banks? Don't the banks already have all the money?"

adult: "The banks lent all their money to us, so they need more money from the government so they can continue lending to us."

child: "I still don't understand."

adult: "You'll understand it when you get older."


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## moXJO (7 September 2009)

Commercial construction in my area is dead and everyone is soaking up any domestic they can. The big companies seem to be desperately under cutting to keep their workers paid. Everyone seems to be cutting their quotes to a low price as competition is heating up. A lot of people getting laid off and money starting to get tight. I have been fine so far but some of the desperation from others is getting a little concerning. It wasn't that long ago that everything seemed fine. I only have two more decent sized projects left. And am being out quoted on a few jobs week in week out.

It can get quiet round this time of year though. Will be interesting to see the lead up to Christmas.


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