# Your predictions on approaching bear market



## MalteseBull (20 April 2006)

ok this bull market will not last ! there's going to be corrections, so when do you think the next bear market will be (eg next good time to buy?)


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## michael_selway (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> ok this bull market will not last ! there's going to be corrections, so when do you think the next bear market will be (eg next good time to buy?)




are u talking about corrections or market crash/bear market?

thx

MS


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## Prospector (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*

And have we agreed a bear market is approaching, or are you just saying that some time in the future things will cycle?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*

This bull market will last for a lot longer @ the earliest it won't slow down until late 2007 (Oil prices, terrorism and natural disasters ie Bird Flu are some dark horses however)

Unlike any other boom before this one is being driven by 2 billion people buying everyday items such as fridges, cars, tv's mobile phones and so on,

I am not just repeating what I have read, I was in China last year and all I can say is OMG!

Until you go there you cannot appreciate what its like, buildings/skyscrapers/apartment complexes going up everywhere and I mean everywhere!!!!!!!  And it still isn't enough, not by a long shot, its crazy but it will take China 2 more years to till they can meet this demand

I was in India Early Last year as well and it was the same scenario, although not at an advanced stage like China, I'm told now though that there property development/ buildings are rivalling the sprawl in China, 

Its Crazy never before has the world experienced 2 billlion people creating organic consumption demand like this before,


Sure the mkts run very hot, sure the heat will come out, sure it has to have a little breather like it did in Oct last year, but it will pick up again.


Throw out your text books and embrace (like most analysts finally have) that we are in a new era!

To make my point clear, we will definately have another breather, I don't know when, but am guessing June/July, but the market will keep on keeping on for a few more years to come.


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## bullmarket (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*

well   I've consulted my tea leaves, crystal ball and astrologist and they don't agree   .........so I'm leaving the final word to my gut   

I think oil is starting to get to the point where it most likely will start affecting consumer confidence significantly and then everything snow-balls down hill from there, especially in the US where consumer spending is the main driver of their economy. 

I posted recently that I thought if oil goes past and stays $75-80+ then it's going to start hurting confidence and hence consumer spending imo, not to mention the inflation pressures it will exert.....we're getting close now   imo the next 6 months consumer confidence and inflation numbers will give a better idea of what is likely to happen in H2 2006 and next year.

So finally, my gut says that if oil goes to and stays $75-80+ for the next 6-12 months then next year markets generally will be struggling imo.

cheers

bullmarket 

ps...on a more serious note, over the last few months I've noticed on Nightly Business Report on SBS that the general consensus amongst US forcasters is that they expect a slow down in US GDP growth in H2 2006.


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## kgee (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*

I'm a speculator and I think june / july will be interesting ... mainly due to oil prices ...the middle east is a mess and I can't see any significant resolutions by then.Couple this with the US driving and hurricane season,s beginning  in June/July...I've posted this b4 that I don't believe we will have another Katrina ...but there will be disruptions from supply as you can't work on a rig when a cyclone is heading your way...and they are predicting a higher than average season
Now if there is an escalation in the middle east I hate to imagine...but it wouldn't be good


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## Strw23 (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*

I am not an investor, I trade using mechanical systems so I dont care if it comes or when it comes. I think if you make 3 or 4 systems that complement each other you should be making money no matter which way the market goes. I see a crash/correction as another chance to make a lot of money shorting. I have tried predicting things before and have been wrong, so I find it always helps to remember the saying "Would you rather be profitable or right". Dont get me wrong I am not knocking Investing just giving my point of view. My plan is to have a short system and run it all the time so when the market finally does change direction I wont be caught out.

My   

Scott


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## yogi-in-oz (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



Hi folks,

Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:

XJO ..... would still like to see a high in this market,
around 5386 (possibly spiking to 5404 intraday???).

As strong as this market has been, we will likely
see a pullback soon, so we will be shooting for
a high on 20042006, with the slide starting on
Friday, 21042006 ..... ???

-----

So today, we are still 100 points shy of our target 
and running out of time ..... 

Whilst tonight (Thurs 20042006) should see us
with a positive DOW, Friday should see XJO test
the highs, ready for a slide ..... 

Time cycles between world  events are the reasons
for our concern ..... for example, terrorists can count
too - it was exactly 1000 days from the bombings
in Spain to the attacks in London. 

Similarly, 24042006 should also be added to our 
key dates to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle
from the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002.

Other key dates, to watch for major world events,
that may be reflected in the markets, on:

24052006 ... minor

08062006 ... 2nd anniversary - Venus Transit
and Reagan's death and also related to the
2002 Bali bombing.

07 November 2006 ... relates to March 2003 lows
..... another low ???   Also a huge stellium here.

FWIW ..... XJO should be BOOMING in early 2007,
especially around 15-21 February 2007 ... 

On the subject of oil, we figure that oil prices will
probably rally through to early July 2006, then
moderate into the end of September 2006, with
the lows expectd around 22-28092006 ???

From September 2006, we will probably see a steady
increase in oil prices, until around 19042007, then
flat-to-down until 08082007, then sharp rises later
in 2007, particularly about 31 October 2007.

Anyway, let's see how all this unfolds, 
in the months ahead ..... 

happy days

yogi


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## YOUNG_TRADER (20 April 2006)

I'm hoping (with fingers crossed four the sake of the world and markets) that the Iran situation is defused by China if need be.

That the major supply disruptions in Nigeria or stopped (ie kill the rebels!)

And that rising inventory levels ease the Oil price around $65, I'm happy with $65, the world can cope with $65, but if anything goes wrong it could be $100 very quickly!



Also scott who is that scary mind controlling chap as your picture?


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## bullmarket (20 April 2006)

Hi yogi 

sounds like you go to the same astrologist as I do   

cheers

bullmarket


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## yogi-in-oz (20 April 2006)

Hi folks,

 ..... should add, that turns at market extremes
are often triggered by external events, that have 
little or nothing to do with market internals.

It could easily be a natural catastrophe, that triggers a 
market slide, but given this is the US reporting season, 
the volatility will be higher anyway, as the markets 
swings between positive and negative numbers from 
the big players, in particular.

happy trading

  yogi


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## Strw23 (20 April 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Also scott who is that scary mind controlling chap as your picture?




Its Professor X off of the X-men. I wanted a picture of the Silver Surfer for surfing the trends or something like that but the ones I found didnt reduce down in size that well so I used this one instead. If I find a decent Silver Surfer one later on I might swap it over.

Scott


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## wavepicker (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> This bull market will last for a lot longer @ the earliest it won't slow down until late 2007 (Oil prices, terrorism and natural disasters ie Bird Flu are some dark horses however)
> 
> Unlike any other boom before this one is being driven by 2 billion people buying everyday items such as fridges, cars, tv's mobile phones and so on,
> 
> ...





Young Trader,
In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said  " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and  prove them wrong, over and over again. 

No it is not different this time, the market is as always charged with emotion, both when it goes up and when it comes down. People are people and they will make the same mistakes that their predecessors have made in the markets. 

Bull and Bear markets always seem to last a lot longer than most people expect. People then reach a point and say well "this is just going to keep going and going and going. 

That is the time to go against the crowd. This is difficult to do but if you look at the greatest investors such as John Templeton for example, that is what sets them apart from the crowd.

Cheers


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## crackaton (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Young Trader,
> In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said  " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and  prove them wrong, over and over again.
> 
> No it is not different this time, the market is as always charged with emotion, both when it goes and when it comes down. People are people and they will make the same mistakes that their predecessors have made in the markets.
> ...





This is true but have we reached that point?  I think there is more kick left and perhaps you can say I told you so in 6 months or a year, but I reckon there's a bit of steam left in the ol boiler yet.


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## wavepicker (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				crackaton said:
			
		

> This is true but have we reached that point?  I think there is more kick left and perhaps you can say I told you so in 6 months or a year, but I reckon there's a bit of steam left in the ol boiler yet.




Yes Crackaton, of course there maybe more steam left in the boiler. However that steam could also be  becoming "superheated" and the old boiler she could blow at any time. Who knows? You just gotta make your play and hope for the best if you have no exit strategy. If you do have an exit strategy then in my opinion taking some good old profits at the moment wouldn't be a bad idea.

Good Trading


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## money tree (20 April 2006)

baby boomers are now turning 60. Right now, a lot of them are in high paying jobs and sending a lot of money into retirements plans. When they get to 65, they will retire, ie STOP adding to retirement plans and START drawing on them. This means, markets are likely to rise for the next few years, followed by the worst recession ever seen, starting around 2010.

I predict the Dow will be 20,000 by 2010.
I predict the Nikkei will be 40,000 by 2010.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (20 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Young Trader,
> In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said  " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and  prove them wrong, over and over again.
> 
> No it is not different this time, the market is as always charged with emotion, both when it goes up and when it comes down. People are people and they will make the same mistakes that their predecessors have made in the markets.
> ...





I agree with what you say, I'm not blindly saying the markets will roar on forever, however I think the fundamentals are there to support the stronger for longer proposition, if you read my post you will see that I said late 2007 may see some slowing, the demand is not just going to dry up overnight but eventually the demand will be met,

Any way time will tell, but I thinks 2006 should be another good year for resources mainly *OIL, GOLD, ZINC, URANIUM* as should 2007, and perhaps *Silver and Copper*


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## crackaton (20 April 2006)

money tree said:
			
		

> baby boomers are now turning 60. Right now, a lot of them are in high paying jobs and sending a lot of money into retirements plans. When they get to 65, they will retire, ie STOP adding to retirement plans and START drawing on them. This means, markets are likely to rise for the next few years, followed by the worst recession ever seen, starting around 2010.
> 
> I predict the Dow will be 20,000 by 2010.
> I predict the Nikkei will be 40,000 by 2010.




 Agree. A few years to go yet. So make the most of it or you'll be kicking yourself for the rest of your mortal life!!


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## tech/a (20 April 2006)

> In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and prove them wrong, over and over again.




At the time yes but pretty quickly in the scheme of things-----
AUST IS different to the US.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/gold-to-set-course-for-us1000/2006/04/19/1145344154024.html

*More Bull ammo!!!*


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## bullmarket (20 April 2006)

Well, this boom is good for super funds 

I don't want to wish my life away any faster than time is already passing nowadays (scarey   ) but I'm looking forward to my 55th birthday in a few years 

I hope that the inevitable correction is done and dusted off by then.

bullmarket


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## crackaton (20 April 2006)

I want to retire tommorow. lol


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## tech/a (20 April 2006)

> I hope that the inevitable correction is done and dusted off by then.



Well if you invest for capital appreciation rather than yield then in a few years time when its still coming you wont have to worry about crashes or corrections. It will still be coming.


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## bullmarket (20 April 2006)

Hi tech/a 



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well if you invest for capital appreciation rather than yield then in a few years time when its still coming you wont have to worry about crashes or corrections. It will still be coming.




I received a redundancy package back in 2001, which is why I am no longer in the workforce, and the super fund I referred to in my previous post is the rollover fund my employer super was rolled over into  in 2001 until I reach the age of 55.

You also might recall that recently in another thread I mentioned that the assets we have in mrs bullmarket's name are far more orientated to growth than income and so imo we have all bases covered atm 

cheers

bullmarket


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## beachbum (20 April 2006)

First of all, I'm not a big poster but have followed a few forums for about ten years. Many of the posters I read on a regular basis and thanks all, you have been a great source of learning. Tech/a amongst many of the better posters.
That chart looks almost parabolic Tech/a. Time to be on red alert for a breakdown IMHO.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (21 April 2006)

Commodities like oil and gas are not like those laughably overvalued technology stocks of 1999-2000 -- let's get that straight.

Tech stocks rode a wave of hype and gullibility, whereas commodity prices and the share prices of the companies that produce them, are built on supply and demand considerations that in turn reflect verifiable economic and political factors.


So why try and fight the laws of demand and supply fundamentals?

It is a battle you will not win, I don't care how many investors there are selling down a commodity, if the supply isn't there to meet actual demand from 2billion people the price of that Commodity will remain strong.

Take Zinc last night

Metals get volatile, copper drops 5.7%, but silver dropped 15% 

BaseMetals.com Report 

Having put in stellar performances in recent weeks, Thursday’s sell-off should have been no surprise. Although silver may have started the wobble and at one stage was off 15% from recent highs, the base metals got off relatively lightly with copper dropping 5.7% to a low around $6170/mt before once again running into strong underlying buying, which saw prices bounce all the way back to $6300/mt by the 5pm close. The sell-off, however, has damaged some of the chart pictures, especially aluminium’s as prices once again fell back below previous highs at $2678. If it holds down here then it will look like another failed attempt to break higher. In addition, today’s sell-off may well have reminded some investors about how scary the market can become when more than a few traders head for the exit at the same time. It may also have been an eye-opener to those who are new to the world of metals Had copper fallen as much as silver did on Thursday then the low would have been around $5565 – so things certainly could get more volatile. 

Now that the market has had a shake out all eyes will be on whether there is follow through selling. The sell-off was followed by a good bounce, but some of that was no doubt just short-covering on the day as the close approached. Given the extent of the rise that has seen copper prices up 40% since March 10, it would not be surprising to see more selling emerge, but given the characteristics of this market over the past few years, this is by no means certain. The arguments for a deeper correction in copper are: 


Prices had started to accelerate to the upside from an already steep climb which can be part of an ending pattern in technical analysis 


On April 13, ICSG reported a supply surplus in January of 60,000mt 


Substitution is having an impact in some applications – which is likely to reduce demand. China’s usage in January was down 10% yoy. 


High oil prices and potential for a much weaker dollar may damage global growth and hence metal demand  



Interesting to note that while Gold, Silver, Aluminium, Copper etc all fell Zinc marched on, 

Why? Zinc has the Strongest Demand Supply Fundamentals!


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## yogi-in-oz (21 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:
> 
> ...




 

Hi folks,

..... it looks like we nailed the right day for the slide,
but set our sights too high for the price ..... lol ..... 

happy days

  yogi


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## YOUNG_TRADER (22 April 2006)

*With all of the commodities making up for Thursdays Loses and pushing to new record highs on friday (US)lets see what Monday Brings on the ASX SHALL WE?*



Copper, Zinc, Silver Soar (JML anyone?), Leading Rebound in Demand for Metals 
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and zinc soared to records, gold rallied and silver rebounded from its biggest drop in 23 years as investment funds returned to buying commodities.  
The gains capped a week of speculation that the three-year commodity rally may have peaked, sparking a sell-off of industrial and precious metals. Investors resumed purchases today, sending copper and zinc to their sixth straight weekly gains. Gold traded near its highest in 25 years and silver, down 14 percent yesterday, jumped the most in eight years. 

``There are still good times to be had in these markets,'' said Paul Netherwood, who co-manages Beach Horizon LLP's $70 million commodity fund in London. ``Commodities have a long way to go.'' 

Copper for delivery in three months climbed as much as $534, or 8.5 percent, to a record $6,830 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, which would be the biggest gain since at least 1986. Zinc jumped as much as $285, or 9.3 percent, to an all-time high of $3,360 a ton. Nickel rose as much as $1,045, or 5.7 percent, to $19,500, the highest since at least 1987. 

Rising demand from China, the world's fastest-growing major economy and biggest consumer of most metals, is luring investors to commodities from sugar to gold. Fund investments in commodities will rise 38 percent this year to $110 billion, according to Barclays Capital. 

China's economy expanded 9.9 percent last year. Growth in the first quarter was 10.2 percent, President Hu Jintao said April 16. Industrial production expanded 17.8 percent last month after gaining 20.1 percent in February. 

Gold's Gains 

Copper prices are up 10.6 percent this week, the most since July 1999. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for delivery in May rose 5.2 percent to $3.115 a pound. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date. 

Gold headed for the sixth straight weekly gain, rebounding from a 2 percent drop yesterday, on renewed speculation that it will fetch better returns than stocks and bonds. 

Bullion is up 45 percent in the past year, and reached a 25-year high yesterday of $649 an ounce before investors began a sell-off in precious metals that included silver. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained 13 percent and holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury have lost 3.2 percent in the past year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. 

Held Its Ground 

``The gold market held its ground,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``That it stayed well above $600 in the face of the silver sell-off convinced investors that it's still involved in a bull market.'' 

Gold futures for June delivery rose $8.90, or 1.4 percent, to $632 an ounce 12:02 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have climbed 5.4 percent this week. 

Silver for immediate delivery rose 92.5 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $12.91 an ounce in London. A close at that price would be the biggest one-day gain since February 1998. Silver yesterday reached $14.74, matching the highest since February 1983, before joining a sell-off in metals including gold and copper. Silver is down 0.3 percent for the week. 

``Prices would not be where they are if not for the huge, unprecedented amount of money coming into the market,'' Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said in a phone interview. 

Fund Investment 

Silver has risen this year on expectations that Barclays Plc would soon receive approval for an exchange-traded fund linked for the metal, boosting demand. 

Copper prices have been fueled by a drop in production at Grupo Mexico, owner of the country's two largest copper mines, and at sites owned by New Orleans-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. 

Freeport said April 18 that variations in the richness of metal deposits in different parts of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, led to a 34 percent drop in first-quarter production to 100,400 tons. 

Grupo Mexico may have to suspend May deliveries of zinc after a two-week strike at its San Martin underground mine, spokesman Juan Rebolledo said this week. It's also losing daily production of about 1,100 tons of copper and won't be able to ship to customers next month because of a labor dispute at La Caridad mine, Rebolledo said April 16. 

Europe, the world's second-largest copper-consuming region after Asia, also has seen expanding demand for the metal. Cumerio, the copper producer spun off by Belgian metals producer Umicore SA, said today first-quarter product deliveries, including wire rods, rose by as much as 15 percent. 

Falling Stockpiles 

``Real demand for copper semi-products in Europe could improve by 8 percent to 10 percent during the first half of the year,'' Thierry Centner, Cumerio's vice president for copper products, said today in an interview from Brussels. 

Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME declined for a second straight day, dropping 425 tons, or 0.4 percent, to 118,000 tons. That equates to less than three days of global consumption. Zinc inventory has plummeted 32 percent this year to 267,250 tons, according to the LME data, an amount that can be consumed within less than 10 days. 

First-quarter nickel output from Australia's Murin Murin mine fell 15 percent to 7,302 tons because of maintenance, Minara Resources Ltd., the country's second-largest producer of the metal, said today. Minara, based in Perth, accounts for about 60 percent of the mine's production. 

Inco Ltd., the world's No. 2 nickel producer, said yesterday demand for the metal will outpace production this year because of increased use by stainless steel producers, which consume about two-thirds of global supply. 

Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum rose $135, or 5.1 percent, to $2,780 a ton. Tin added $275 to $9,250 a ton and lead gained $58, or 4.9 percent, to $1,243 a ton.


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## wavepicker (22 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> ..... it looks like we nailed the right day for the slide,
> but set our sights too high for the price ..... lol .....
> ...





Hi, 

as I have said in an earlier post in another thread, my opinion is that this market has either put in a very historic top last week or is about to in the next 2-5 trading days.

Gold, Silver as well as the CRB Index have put in classic  5th wave extension blowoffs under my interpretation of elliott wave theory and other analysis tools that I use. I beleive we are in for a great correction.

I have liquidated all my positions last week and kickin back

PS- I am not a licensed advisor, my comments are based on my own work and are entirely my opinion.

Good trading too all.


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## tech/a (22 April 2006)

Elliot practitioners have been calling around 5300 for a while now.

This "slide" is that likely to be .38 off the highs?---less---more?

The "Great Correction" is this likely to be a 100% retracement---more?

Is this High the highest high it will ever get to?
Is it the high within an incompleted larger wave pattern?


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## wayneL (22 April 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Is this High the highest high it will ever get to?




No, unless nuclear armageddon or something equally outrageous  happens.



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Is it the high within an incompleted larger wave pattern?




Always! Qualified of course by the above apocalypse.

You will find fanatical bears will become fanatical bulls after a nice textbook 3 wave down.


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## bunyip (22 April 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> ok this bull market will not last ! there's going to be corrections, so when do you think the next bear market will be (eg next good time to buy?)




I've seen some pointless questions and pointless discussions on forums, but this one just about takes the cake!

Two facts.......

1. None of us can predict the future with regard to the financial markets. We can try, but we'll be wrong more times than right.

2. We don't need to predict the future in order to make money from the markets. We simply need to react to what the market is doing right now, rather than waste our time and effort in pointless speculation about what it might do in the future.

Those who can read charts and identify trends will know when the next bear market arrives. And they'll profit from it just as they've profited from the current bull market. 
Those who can't recognise trends will try to be bulls in a bear market, and will quite likely cop a mauling.

MalteseBull.....No offence intended, but to come on a forum and ask all and sundry when the next bear market will arrive, is an exercise in futility.

Bunyip


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## yogi-in-oz (24 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:
> 
> ...







Hi folks,

As per post above:

"24042006 should also be added to our key dates
to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle from
the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002."

..... today, OBL issued a declaration of war, between 
Muslims and Western cultures ... !~!

Let's hope they can eliminate him, first ... before
some radical cell decides to make an attack on
our own soil.

happy days

  yogi


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## wayneL (24 April 2006)

*Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> ..... today, OBL issued a declaration of war, between
> Muslims and Western cultures ... !~!






			
				Alexander Downer said:
			
		

> "My reaction is a reaction of defiance,"
> 
> "These tapes from Osama bin Laden only reinforce my determination to fight these terrorists.




So Downer is going to pull on some fatigues and grab an armalite and he's off to Iraq eh? What a *&^#ing tosser!

It's all BS to keep the plebs frightened folks. Do your own research!


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## yogi-in-oz (25 April 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:
> 
> Time cycles between world  events are the reasons
> for our concern ..... for example, terrorists can count
> ...






Hi folks,

First, OBL make his latest declaration of war against
the West, now this .....  

..... as per post above, the terrorists can count as well,
as evidenced by last night's bombings in Egypt ... !~!

..... next major date to monitor will be 08 June 2006.

happy trading

  yogi


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## noirua (4 May 2006)

Dr Marc Faber is arguably one of the best predictor of markets in recent times:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/faber041306.html


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## RickG (4 May 2006)

Posting this here because not sure where else to post it... but why is today (4th May) down so much... especially resource stocks.  Gold hasnt changed overnight, and the only commodity really down overnight is Lead.  Looking at Kitco, most commodities arte no change or up slightly.  Am I missing something.

Sorry but I am new to the investment game and just trying to learn.

Cheers.


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## wayneL (4 May 2006)

RickG said:
			
		

> Posting this here because not sure where else to post it... but why is today (4th May) down so much... especially resource stocks.  Gold hasnt changed overnight, and the only commodity really down overnight is Lead.  Looking at Kitco, most commodities arte no change or up slightly.  Am I missing something.
> 
> Sorry but I am new to the investment game and just trying to learn.
> 
> Cheers.




Rick,

Technically, the metals markets look a bit toppy. Oil double topped and sold off viciously. Also Nick Radge pointed out quite some time ago, there is a confluense of fib levels at 5300 which may serve as strong resistance.

....and we about due a correction anyway


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## Sean K (4 May 2006)

1451 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 73 points or 1.4% at 5200.0. Could end down 100 points, says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. "The 300-400 point index correction has started. Everyone knows it but no one wants to believe it. Look how easily it's lost 70 points today.  There's no volume because everyone's fully invested." Notes most stocks are down. Cites "sell in May, go away." (DWR)


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## ctp6360 (4 May 2006)

Yeah its all doom and gloom from here on out, you guys start selling as low as possible and I will just keep buying!


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## wayneL (4 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> Yeah its all doom and gloom from here on out, you guys start selling as low as possible and I will just keep buying!




Is it just stocks you wanna keep buying? 'Cause I've got a bunch of stuff in my shed I want to sell  

By the way, you're not a shoe shine boy are you? :


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## jet-r (4 May 2006)

its my buying day today.
grabbed 20k of bargain.


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## bullmarket (4 May 2006)

Too early to say whether this is the start of a *sustainable* correction imo.

We had bigger falls back in Oct and the market rebounded soon after.

But buying now on the way down is frought with danger imo because there is a good chance that stocks could be even cheaper next week in spite of any dead cat bounce.

But I see the LPT sector (XPJ) is holding up well today   

cheers

bullmarket


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## Sean K (4 May 2006)

Definately more scope to consolidate. Obviously edgy investors out there waiting for an excuse to lock in some profits. If some REAL negative news comes out then hold on to your hats. Stop losses by the pros will see some big falls. Then it'll be a great time to generally invest in this long term commodities bull.


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## wavepicker (4 May 2006)

bullmarket said:
			
		

> Too early to say whether this is the start of a *sustainable* correction imo.
> 
> We had bigger falls back in Oct and the market rebounded soon after.
> 
> ...



I agree bullmarket, it is too early to call this. Personally however  as I stated in this thread some 2 weeks ago, we are in the early stages of a very significant correction that will last much longer than most pundits expect. For short term commodities traders, I beleive there will be a lot of "knife catching" going on. 
Personally I see as written in earlier posts, rotation out of the resources and banks into cheaper and better for value issues. After all this is just a big merry go round. Three years ago it was resource stocks that represented great value, and nobody wanted them. Now everyone wants to own them, which is precisely the reason to exit. Maybe jump in again in 2-3 years time, for the next leg of the secular bull market in gold.

For now find undervalued stoxx that nobody wants is my motto.

Cheers


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## tech/a (4 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> Yeah its all doom and gloom from here on out, you guys start selling as low as possible and I will just keep buying!




Im on your team.


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## ctp6360 (5 May 2006)

tech/a, I hope you did as well as I did this morning


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## noirua (5 May 2006)

The greater and more extensive a man's knowledge of what has gone before, the better will be his ability of knowing and coping, and most of all, what to do now.


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## tech/a (6 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> tech/a, I hope you did as well as I did this morning





HZN has been my accumulator.
Got a bit of PYM.

Its an on going thing.
Emotion can be highly profitable.


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## tech/a (7 May 2006)

*Wayne*

Jose posted an interesting chart sequence on Reef. Within the USA.
This bears (Pun intended) out your and others veiw on the real BEAR at work in what appears to be a bullish market---

It shows the in the top chart the falling value of the US $$.
The middle chart is the rising DOW.
The bottom chart is the REAL value of the DOW relative to the purchasing power of the US $$.

So rising stock market decreasing buying power.
Australia however has rising EVERYTHING.


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## yogi-in-oz (7 May 2006)

Hi folks,

Here's why, being short on the indices may well 
be injurious to you wealth, no matter what the
gurus may say:

"05-08052006 ... should be positive cycle for DOW"

..... DOW up + 138 points ..... and a new high(?)

Quote above was taken from a post in the SPI
thread, on 29042006 ... see post, below.

-----

So, why did the shorts get it wrong this time ...???

Simply, it was not TIME to go short ..... !~!

This means, that despite all their EW analysis,
there was an important factor that was overlooked.

While EW may be a guide to how the market is
unfolding, it has a fundamental flaw ... that is, if we
take 100 EW exponents and compare their analysis,
we will likely come up with almost as many opinions
about the wave count ..... that's because, very few 
of them can agree, even about WHERE TO START
their wave count !~!

-----

So, to prove the validity of their analysis, another
INDEPENDENT means of evaluation is needed, to either
provide confirmation  or render their findings invalid.

One area that most chartists ignore is the TIME axis
on our charts, yet TIME being constant, it is much 
EASIER to evaluate, than the variable PRICE axis  .....

..... and believe it, TIME CYCLE analysis thrives on
the KISS principle.

Earlier in this thread, the Fibonacci sequence was mentioned
and it is often associated with EW, as sometimes the
waves fall into line, with the projected Fibo numbers.

Now, Fibo numbers are part of a natural sequence, accredited
to Fibonacci, but known and recognised by the Pythagorean
Jews, with their "Harmony of the Spheres." ie ... they knew 
about the relationship between the orbit of Earth and Venus.

A ratio, that has been in existence for millions of years,
circulating right above our heads and a ratio, that not even 
GWB can change ..... 

Just as the Fibo sequence can be used on the PRICE axis,
so too it can be used to analyze the constant TIME, with
projections from previous highs and lows to key dates
ahead, where there may be a breakout, pause or reversal
in the market being evaluated. 

-----

Key dates below were NOT derived using the Fibo sequence.
Instead, our TIME cycle analysis is derived by using Gann's
astrotools and an ephemeris. Very SIMPLE stuff, it is too !~!

Skeptix say, "its not possible" ... but so far, as per the post
below, our scoreboard favours the astrotraders .....  

... let's see how the rest of it unfolds, over the coming weeks.

We should also invite the skeptix to post their own take on
the DOW and XJO, for the same dates .....

( ..... it just won't happen !~! ) 

-----

In summary, ignoring the TIME axis on our charts, means
that we are using less than 50% of the information, that
any chart has to offer ..... 

have a great weekend

  yogi



=====

Posted here, in the SPI thread, on: 

29th-April-2006, 11:41 PM                              #1361

Hi folks,

A quick note on our May 2006, DOW/XJO overview .....

05-08052006 ... should be positive cycle for DOW
                       (posted 138 point gain here, already)

10-12052006 ... particularly strong DOW cycle

17-18052006 ... positive cycle for XJO and
Aussie dollar moves, too ...(???)

26-29052006 ... negative news/moves for XJO

07062006 ... more negativity for XJO .....
alert for a big world event here

12-13062006 ... 2 positive cycles for DOW

happy days

yogi


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## crackaton (7 May 2006)

TAX time people. May is always a sheitty month, and to a lesser extent June. Have lots of fun!!


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## greggles (25 October 2018)

*Warning: 14 of 19 bear market signals triggered, Bank of America says*

Some are saying that the end of the current bull market, the longest in American history, is near. There are suggestions that corporate profit growth will begin to decelerate in the next couple of quarters. Personally, I don't think the next major catalyst is far away and that 2018 is just a prelude for 2019. Hang on tight, we're in for a bumpy ride.


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## basilio (25 October 2018)

Stock markets looking grim around the world.  Some analysts are talking of capitulation.

* Asia Pacific shares plunge into bear territory amid fears over global economy *
Markets fall from Sydney to Shanghai as analyst warns that broad selloff could turn into a ‘capitulation’

Martin Farrer

Thu 25 Oct 2018 16.30 AEDT   First published on Thu 25 Oct 2018 13.31 AEDT

*Shares*
138
 
* Comments*
 249 
 
Shares in Asia Pacific have plunged into bear market territory and wiped billions off the values of companies as one analyst warned that the losses could be a harbinger of a wholesale “capitulation”.

After the worst day for tech stocks on Wall Street for seven years, markets were in retreat from Sydney to Shanghai as concerns about the global economy and rising borrowing costs were compounded by local factors.

In Australia the benchmark ASX200 closed down 164 points or 2.8% as it suffered its fifth straight day of losses. In Japan the Nikkei was off 3.2% and has now dropped around 13% from a 27-year peak of 24,448.07 touched in early October.

A broad indicator of shares in the region – the MSCI Asia Pacific index – has now fallen 20.3% from the year-to-date high set on 29 January, representing an official bear market. The Vix “fear” index, which measures volatility across the market, has spiked sharply this week and was up 21% overnight.

“We haven’t thought that selling would be this steep. This sell-off makes us think the market may be set for capitulation,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...fears-ftse-markets-global-economy-intensifies


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## SirRumpole (25 October 2018)

How much have Trump's policies got to do with this ?

All indications were that the US economy was in "great shape", falling unemployment, low inflation etc so what is actually wrong and why did the "correction" happen suddenly ? Was it due to algorithmic trading triggering sell orders all at once, and/or are the underlying problems with Trump's policies coming home to roost ?

Or is it the Fed's fault for raising interest rates ?


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## Darc Knight (25 October 2018)

"The start of the next bear market" Wilson Asset Management.


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## SirRumpole (25 October 2018)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10...-with-stupidity-on-share-markets-too/10429560


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## aus_trader (25 October 2018)

greggles said:


> Hang on tight, we're in for a bumpy ride.



Thanks for the warning, I've been selling down some of my stocks in case it gets worse. Gold related are holding up well.


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## noirua (11 October 2020)

October 8 2020


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