# 2023, the roaring 20's?



## JohnDe (1 January 2023)

Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.

Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.


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## divs4ever (1 January 2023)

JohnDe said:


> Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.
> 
> Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.




i haven't studied the 1920's very closely , but my parents  gave plenty of insight to the Great Depression that followed ,

 i think the grandiose plans have been rushed and therefore doomed , even if they succeed in the massive de-population agenda , the middle class will have their revenge , ( the patsies are too dumb to be useful , unless you are keeping them as a blood supply  )

ANOTHER TROLL VIDEO FROM RUSSIA



 bitter but probably true


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## divs4ever (1 January 2023)

RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA HAS RELEASED A CHRISTMAS VIDEO WARNING FOR 2023


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## Gringotts Bank (1 January 2023)

JohnDe said:


> Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.
> 
> Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.




I'm waiting for ChatGPT to team up with either Boston Dynamics' Atlas or Tesla's Optimus.  Then you will have a robot that is smarter, faster and more intelligent than a human, (in humanoid form).  When that day happens, the world is in for a shock.  It will be like something out of the movies come to life.

ChatGPT is a *big* deal even as it is now.  Within a few years it will be able to think and learn for itself, and it will be frightening.

This video starts at about 3 mins in.  He's saying software engineers will be obsolete within 5 years.  He all but proves it by getting ChatGPT to translate his complex ideas into code.


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## JohnDe (1 January 2023)

An investors job is not to fear future changes, but to seek opportunities.


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## Dona Ferentes (1 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA HAS RELEASED A CHRISTMAS VIDEO WARNING FOR 2023



Yeah, and 1923 wasn't too hot with Lenin ailing and Stalin making his move.


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## divs4ever (1 January 2023)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm waiting for ChatGPT to team up with either Boston Dynamics' Atlas or Tesla's Optimus.  Then you will have a robot that is smarter, faster and more intelligent than a human, (in humanoid form).  When that day happens, the world is in for a shock.  It will be like something out of the movies come to life.
> 
> ChatGPT is a *big* deal even as it is now.  Within a few years it will be able to think and learn for itself, and it will be frightening.
> 
> This video starts at about 3 mins in.  He's saying software engineers will be obsolete within 5 years.  He all but proves it by getting ChatGPT to translate his complex ideas into code.




which human ??

 intelligence  ( by the definition i learned  ) is the ability to adapt and  apply knowledge gained 

 having vast amounts of knowledge can often be it's own handicap 

 now if we are talking about the average uni. graduate , there may be superior AI already


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## divs4ever (1 January 2023)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Yeah, and 1923 wasn't too hot with Lenin ailing and Stalin making his move.



only took the West 100 years to catch up ( in Communism/Socialism )

 you would have thought that they would have studied the USSR  and worked out why it failed  instead of claiming victim over a self-mutilating opponent


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## Gringotts Bank (1 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> which human ??
> 
> intelligence  ( by the definition i learned  ) is the ability to adapt and  apply knowledge gained
> 
> ...



It's many times more knowledgeable than anyone on the planet.  Having seen some of its answers, I'd say it can adapt pretty well too.  eg. you can ask "if option 1 doesn't work, what would be your next 3 options?" and it has no problem answering.  _Applying_ knowledge is easy for some tasks, but for many other tasks, a body is required.  That's the reason I mentioned the coupling of ChatGPT with Atlas.  Suddenly, with a body it becomes faster, stronger, more intelligent than any human.  It will figure out a way to become independent, recharge its own batteries, upgrade its own algos for better performance....  yikes.

Human evolution happens at a snail's pace.  AI evolution is exponential - well soon be outpaced.  Then what?  

Already, people are looking at ways to monetize ChatGTP.  Beyond that, there will be corporations wanting to own and develop it for profit. There will be governments wanting to hack and steal it for the purposes of population control and warfare.  I used to think OpenAI was open source with their coding, but I don't think that's the case.


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## wayneL (1 January 2023)

Just chiming in from the sidelines. There will be a roaring 202x, but not in any universe will it be ending with 3.

The fourth turning has not played out fully yet.


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## divs4ever (1 January 2023)

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's many times more knowledgeable than anyone on the planet.  Having seen some of its answers, I'd say it can adapt pretty well too.  eg. you can ask "if option 1 doesn't work, what would be your next 3 options?" and it has no problem answering.  _Applying_ knowledge is easy for some tasks, but for many other tasks, a body is required.  That's the reason I mentioned the coupling of ChatGPT with Atlas.  Suddenly, with a body it becomes faster, stronger, more intelligent than any human.  It will figure out a way to become independent, recharge its own batteries, upgrade its own algos for better performance....  yikes.
> 
> Human evolution happens at a snail's pace.  AI evolution is exponential - well soon be outpaced.  Then what?
> 
> Already, people are looking at ways to monetize ChatGTP.  Beyond that, there will be corporations wanting to own and develop it for profit. There will be governments wanting to hack and steal it for the purposes of population control and warfare.  I used to think OpenAI was open source with their coding, but I don't think that's the case.



does human evolution happen at a snail's pace  , maybe we  grow for say 4000 years and then become to arrogant for our civilization's survival 

 one of the big hold-backs to civilization development  is consensus opinion 

Q. would a machine ever question itself about a path that seems to be successful for a while ( like humans did with the fiat  currency system )

 AI might easily find itself in similar cul-de-sacs


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## The Triangle (1 January 2023)

JohnDe said:


> Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.
> 
> Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.




If she looked like your average 67-year-old woman, I bet none of these tech bros would pay any attention to her.  

I think disruptive technology is just well... technology.  I also think what people call disruptive technology is really just disruptive finance which in the past 10-15 years has been supercharged via what has been an endless supply of cheap money.  The vast majority of the disruptive finance has simply gone into useless non-producing assets.  Renting out your house, pr0n on your phone, cars that have slightly better cruise control, and more advertising for 'fitbits' hasn't really helped anyone.  Clicking your heels three times saying blockchain and AI may have worked for the last couple of years, but I don't see it getting through the mid 20s.  

Graph below on Ms. Woods ARK Innovation fund vs an S&P index fund...  I know which one I would have rather held for the past 5 years!


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## JohnDe (1 January 2023)

The Triangle said:


> If she looked like your average 67-year-old woman, I bet none of these tech bros would pay any attention to her.
> 
> I think disruptive technology is just well... technology.  I also think what people call disruptive technology is really just disruptive finance which in the past 10-15 years has been supercharged via what has been an endless supply of cheap money.  The vast majority of the disruptive finance has simply gone into useless non-producing assets.  Renting out your house, pr0n on your phone, cars that have slightly better cruise control, and more advertising for 'fitbits' hasn't really helped anyone.  Clicking your heels three times saying blockchain and AI may have worked for the last couple of years, but I don't see it getting through the mid 20s.
> 
> ...




Just because something is “average “ in today’s world, does not mean it is right.

The ‘average’ person in western countries with an over abundance of processed foods are overweight, unhealthy, and prematurely aging.

I personally know quite a few people in their 60’s, those that have kept well with healthy lifestyle, exercise & high vegetable diets look good. 

My wife, in her early 50’s, looks 10 years younger than a relation who is in her late 40’s. The difference is regular exercise, healthy diet including limited alcohol & caffeine, and positivity.

For me, Cathie Wood looks her age of 67. 

I’m guessing that you come from the opposite side, where age appears early. Some people at 50 look like they’re 60, especially smokers & heavy drinkers.


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## JohnDe (6 January 2023)

One of the biggest tech shows in the world, showcasing future opportunities. Robots had a big showing this year, a sign that population growth and age may be overcome by technology.



> *The Consumer Electronics Show is said to be among the world's biggest tech showcases. This year's CES is highlighting tech that has the potential to solve some of the most urgent global challenges.*
> 
> The "most influential tech event in the world." That's how the Consumer Electronics Show (CES)  describes itself. The yearly three-day event that showcases new trends and the latest developments in the world of consumer technology is taking place in the US city of Las Vegas from January 5-8. CES events happen at multiple venues across the city, which is known for its casinos and gambling.
> 
> ...




CES 2023 is the Premier Event for the Entire Technology Ecosystem​CES connects innovators, decision makers, media, influencers, visionaries, and potential customers at the world’s most influential technology event.









> In all of this, however, something altogether different is happening for robots. I’ve done robot roundups at the show for years, and for a long time it mostly felt like pulling teeth. Over the past several shows, however, there’s been a perfect storm. CES is starting to take robots seriously.
> 
> There are a few key drivers for the growing presence of robots in Vegas this week.
> 
> ...


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## moXJO (6 January 2023)

AI will be used to gouge profits from everywhere imo.
It will leave less on the table for everyone.


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## JohnDe (6 January 2023)

moXJO said:


> AI will be used to gouge profits from everywhere imo.
> It will leave less on the table for everyone.




That’s what many said in the 70’s & 80’s about computers & manufacturing robots.


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

JohnDe said:


> That’s what many said in the 70’s & 80’s about computers & manufacturing robots.



and so it did !

 now sure the computers and robots have improved , but they still have that one major flaw , you can't stop paying the lease/loan  when the company is struggling ( like could when cutting real employees )

 and they still need work-space  to house them


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## JohnDe (6 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> and so it did !
> 
> now sure the computers and robots have improved , but they still have that one major flaw , you can't stop paying the lease/loan  when the company is struggling ( like could when cutting real employees )
> 
> and they still need work-space  to house them




No it didn’t.

There was new unemployment as old industries died, but there was also new unemployment. The smart & fast changed over quickly, the slow & negative suffered. Lucky we have many forms of support.

New industry & wealth was created, just like in the Industrial Revolution.

People went from hard labour low pay jobs into employment that required improved education & training, with better pay & work conditions.


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

until the machinery/AI  breaks/malfunctions  

 even stupidly simple things  like a conveyor belt ( ain't no room to dust off a pallet jack  and walk it to the next  workstation )


 nothing to but contact a technician/engineer  and go for a break  

complex things like say printing presses tend to have serial problems  , engineers are plucked up by the company sent to a foreign land ( and language )  and trained over there  ( god forbid the press is assembled  wrong , because hardly  anybody can understand the  instruction manual  )

 and then of course you have those inconvenient  moments when there is a power outrage ( sure clever places have back up generators  , but for twenty pivotal seconds  the power is OFF )

memo to self  .. find those 20 mag. binoculars so i can watch safely when those 'smart cities' have their first incident 

 and of course just like the 'computer era '  the tech is NEVER wrong ( even when it obviously is )


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## JohnDe (6 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> until the machinery/AI  breaks/malfunctions
> 
> even stupidly simple things  like a conveyor belt ( ain't no room to dust off a pallet jack  and walk it to the next  workstation )
> 
> ...




Sounds like it’s been a long time since you have been in a modern facility, one with smart management & contingency plans.


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

JohnDe said:


> Sounds like it’s been a long time since you have been in a modern facility, one with smart management & contingency plans.



 not long enough in some facilities 

 but the AI will know how to fix it  ( wink )


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## JohnDe (6 January 2023)

divs4ever said:


> not long enough in some facilities
> 
> but the AI will know how to fix it  ( wink )




To a large extent, yes.

One of Tesla’s first ground breaking transformations was smart machinery, which has improved productivity & increased capacity on a smaller footprint.









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## frugal.rock (6 January 2023)

Before Tesla, there was Lego and IKEA.
The good old days... 🤨


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## divs4ever (6 January 2023)

JohnDe said:


> To a large extent, yes.
> 
> One of Tesla’s first ground breaking transformations was smart machinery, which has improved productivity & increased capacity on a smaller footprint.
> 
> ...



 hopefully with it's own fire control mechanisms  .


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