# David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy



## finicky (31 May 2020)

I strongly suspect *David Hunter*'s 'prophesy' will be shown correct. I don't really know why; put it down to intuition, for what that will be worth to you. If you find any plausibility in what he is saying you might at least contemplate some precautionary action, as I will be in the new fy. I will be going to 30% cash July/Aug 2020 and considering a short etf position. This is obviously not advice, as I am proceeding on a hunch and what do I know, I am following. I intend to post his most pertinent ongoing tweets here as well as any interesting links to interviews or articles.

He has been saying that the US market is currently in a 'melt up', on the way to an imminent blow-off top (mere months away - September). There will follow a super rapid 'Global Deflationary Bust' wherein the market will lose *80% from the top*. This bust will hit everything except the USD and associated treasuries. It will hit even gold which will halve from its +$2,000 USD top - imagine what that will do to gold stocks. The downstroke of the bust will take 12 months and the markets and hard asset values will start to recover a few months later. 

There will follow a recovery cycle fuelled by government and central bank 'limitless' intervention - their final interference. Stocks will recover over the remaining years of the 2020's decade, gold will exceed $10,000 USD, other commodities will inflate and there will be an industrial boom, albeit lumbered with enormous but cheaply serviced debt. Everything will be great for asset holders until the late 2020's by which time extreme inflation will have set in, interest rates will have broken out, unemployment and bankrupcies will soar and there will follow a deflationary economic collapse - the final one, where central banks and governments will be helpless and there will ensue a secular depression.

David Hunter on twitter @DaveHcontrarian


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## jbocker (31 May 2020)

finicky said:


> He has been saying that the US market is currently in a 'melt up', on the way to an imminent blow-off top ...



I can 'see' that.  A good way of putting it.



finicky said:


> This bust will hit everything except the USD and associated treasuries.



Why not the US dollar. Does this mean Cash is King. I wonder how can that be if inflation is set to go rampant.


finicky said:


> Everything will be great for asset holders until the late 2020's by which time extreme inflation will have set in, interest rates will have broken out





Disclosure: I know Jack Sheet (I met him at the pub once)


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## finicky (31 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> Why not the US dollar. Does this mean Cash is King. I wonder how can that be if inflation is set to go rampant.




The inflation phase he predicts will *follow* the 'global deflationary bust', aka 'the second shoe to drop', that awaits directly ahead. During the deflationary bust, starting probably this September, cash will indeed, obviously, be king and the best cash will still be the USD. During the inflationary recovery cycle *following* the bust, cash is the last place you'd want to be.

To emphasise, when I speak dogmatically, I am either quoting or paraphrasing David Hunter's statements. I am choosing to follow his guidelines because he clearly explains a view that is like a song that one responds to that resonates with subconscious ideas or feelings that are already held.


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## Smurf1976 (31 May 2020)

As a concept it seems plausible and setting aside the detail of specific price levels and dates, he's not the only one saying essentially the same thing in an overall sense.


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## tech/a (31 May 2020)

I’ve seen many predictions this won’t be the last 
Haven’t seen anything remotely close to correct 
Seen plenty in hindsite 
I’ll take $500 that it won’t happen 
Between August and November 
80% off it’s highs 
Anyone up winnings to Joe !


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## InsvestoBoy (31 May 2020)

finicky said:


> I strongly suspect *David Hunter*'s 'prophesy' will be shown correct. I don't really know why; put it down to intuition, for what that will be worth to you. If you find any plausibility in what he is saying you might at least contemplate some precautionary action, as I will be in the new fy. I will be going to 30% cash July/Aug 2020 and considering a short etf position. This is obviously not advice, as I am proceeding on a hunch and what do I know, I am following. I intend to post his most pertinent ongoing tweets here as well as any interesting links to interviews or articles.
> 
> He has been saying that the US market is currently in a 'melt up', on the way to an imminent blow-off top (mere months away - September). There will follow a super rapid 'Global Deflationary Bust' wherein the market will lose *80% from the top*. This bust will hit everything except the USD and associated treasuries. It will hit even gold which will halve from its +$2,000 USD top - imagine what that will do to gold stocks. The downstroke of the bust will take 12 months and the markets and hard asset values will start to recover a few months later.
> 
> ...




Why do you keep portraying his long term call without mentioning his *current* calls? Weird to come here and put words in his mouth.

I have followed him on twitter for quite a while and would suggest others do so rather than taking @finicky 's word for it.

His call is for SPX to 4000. Gold in USD to 2000. 30Y bond yield to 0.5%, or TLT to 195, DXY to 85.

Basically a massive financial asset bull and USD cash bear for some quite huge moves.

and you resonate so strongly with his "song" that you want to get short and go to cash in a couple of months? I think you are listening to the wrong radio station.


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## finicky (31 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> I’ll take $500 that it won’t happen
> Between August and November
> 80% off it’s highs




So his prediction is 80% off the top at the low of the ensuing crash. The crash, or 'global deflationary bust' as he puts it, should last 12-18 months from some time in September 2020. Do you mean August and November 2021? If so, that's a reasonable take. I'm not here to bet, I might bet on a prediction that's entirely my own, this isn't. I'm here for a presentation of his ideas and predictions as I have read them and a friendly discussion of strategies.


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## finicky (31 May 2020)

David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian 

May 29
This will be the first deflationary downturn since the 1930's. The deflation won't be benign nor will it be good for commodities. Be careful comparing cycles. This downturn is completely different than was 2000.

May 30
I'm calling for a big inflation cycle following the bust but won't begin for at least another yr. Steep deflation cycle 1st but then could see inflation back to highs of the early 1980's by the end of the decade. Fed's money pump will trigger an inflation cycle but with a long lag.


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## investtrader (1 June 2020)

Pleeeeassssse stop!!!!!!


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## finicky (1 June 2020)

^^^
No, lol
Please stay tuned


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## finicky (1 June 2020)

*^^^*




David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian
May 31
Traders see everything through traders eyes. There is much more to investing than just short-term trading


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## PZ99 (2 June 2020)

A war with China will fix it real quick


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## finicky (2 June 2020)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Jun 1

I think the trends for gold, silver & the miners are becoming increasingly bullish. This should not be a surprise given the unprecedented degree of CB money creation. I am raising my targets across the board. Gold to $2300, silver to $35, GDX to $55, GDXJ to $100 & SIL to $75.


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## Smurf1976 (2 June 2020)

finicky said:


> Traders see everything through traders eyes. There is much more to investing than just short-term trading




As I see it, day to day we respond to the weather but it doesn't hurt to know what season it is and therefore what's likely coming in due course.


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## qldfrog (3 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As I see it, day to day we respond to the weather but it doesn't hurt to know what season it is and therefore what's likely coming in due course.



We know winter is coming but you should still go to the beach in December without your beanie


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## finicky (3 June 2020)

Just be ready for calamity. Watching a full on crash is less traumatic and fearful if you're sitting on a wad of cash, ready to take advantage of the fire sale and with the means of sitting out a few years without selling stocks at depressed prices just to make ends meet. It's investors not traders who'll feel the greatest impact because traders are fluid and fickle by nature, haha. I just hope I'm not timing it too fine waiting for the new financial year to sell just to postpone a complicated tax return.


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## InsvestoBoy (4 June 2020)

"market collapse prophecy"


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## jbocker (4 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As I see it, day to day we respond to the weather but it doesn't hurt to know what season it is and therefore what's likely coming in due course.






qldfrog said:


> We know winter is coming but you should still go to the beach in December without your beanie




Can someone please tell me what season it is. I am still hiding under a rock.


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## finicky (4 June 2020)

Just to clarify for my pals on this thread - that'd be all of you minus one lol - Dave Hunter, *prophet*, has consistently and clearly stated that *we are currently in a market 'melt-up*' which he believes will take the S&P500 to over 4,000, gold over $2,000 USD. 

The collapse will come rapidly *after* these assets peak, some time in September he thinks (nominates Labor Day in U.S which is September 7!) He describes this coming collapse as a 'global deflationary bust' and also refers to it as "the second shoe to drop", the first shoe being the March crash. The corona virus seems to have been an unanticipated interruption to the melt up phase (this last my interpretation)


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## InsvestoBoy (4 June 2020)

Imagine being a serious macro strategist with more than 40 years of experience on Wall Street and people put you on some kind of ****** up pedestal, calling you a prophet.


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## gartley (4 June 2020)

Few  pedictions come to pass and the gurus that do get it right keep on with the same prediction for a long time till it actually happens and then say "I told you so", but their timing is poor.
I suspect the markets will re test the lows again and my own cycle work suggests 2022 for a meaningful low, but my gut says that market conditions might be similar to the 1968 to 82 net sideways period in the US.
This is actually worse than full blown extended crash because that usually finishes quite quickly and it's back to buy & hold bull market business. But if markets are sideways for quite a few years it 1/.Confuses the hell out of most participants and 2/ Buy and hold strategy does not work unless you are willing to hold for a very long time.
In that sort of market timing is the key and it's no wonder that the best early cycle technicians first came on the scene during the late 60s and 70s...


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## finicky (4 June 2020)

gartley said:


> my own cycle work suggests 2022 for a meaningful low,



That seems in rough agreement actually. Dave Hunter is saying 12-18 months from Sept 2020 peak to major low then lift-off into a central bank fuelled ~6 year bull market in stocks and commodities, industrially not consumer driven.


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## gartley (4 June 2020)

finicky said:


> That seems in rough agreement actually. Dave Hunter is saying 12-18 months from Sept 2020 peak to major low then lift-off into a central bank fuelled ~6 year bull market in stocks and commodities, industrially not consumer driven.



The following chart has been a great roadmap in terms of cycles and time for me the last 15 years. This one is the 19 year cycle and the other one I use in terms of fixed term cycles is the 4 year cycle. Anything else under that timefame I have found not as good.
The red cycle points are points in time, thus we only use the x axis for this analysis not the y axis so disregard the position of the cycle points in terms of points position. Clearly it can be seen the position of cycle point 13 relative to the green and red horizontal lines has been confirmed and it's at approx the same position plus or minus a some bars that the high 19 years ago ( the last red cycle point 13) in 2011 was made. The next cycle point 14( which is a low) is due in 2022 and the last time that formed was the 2003 low when President Bush sent US troops in the Iraq war.
So taking this chart at face value, the down cycle has not bottomed yet. Even if cycle point comes early like just before the red line, that time has not been reached.


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## finicky (5 June 2020)

[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian
12h[/URL]
I know many are seeing the recent sell-off in gold & silver as the beginning of a much bigger move down. I disagree. I think both metals are poised for higher with gold headed over $2000 & ultimately $2300 this summer & silver to $21 next on its way to $35.


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## finicky (8 June 2020)

Ok, so accepted this is one voice among many contradictory voices out there and I am being selective quoting him = confirmation bias. Also he's a 'sell side analyst' with a commercial interest in a buoyant market, but when I spotted this Market Watch article I was struck by how similar his near term outlook is to the seer, the visionary, the prophet, Dave Hunter @DaveHcontrarian twitter. He even uses the term 'melt-up'. Check out the excerpt from his bio: among other accomplishments he's a published and well reviewed 'Fed Watcher'

From the article:
*the bull is back and fresh highs are coming soon, says longtime strategist*

"He added that, as long as no second wave slams the economy, he sees a V-shaped rebound, at least initially, driving the *S&P 500 to record highs over the next couple months*. Specifically, he’s looking for the S&P to breach 3,500 sooner rather than later, which is about 300 points higher from here.

“Not too long ago we were in the midst of a terrible meltdown in the stock market. But it turned out to be a 33-day bear market lasting from Feb. 19 to March 23,” Yardeni said. “Ever since then, we’ve had a melt-up that’s all related to the Fed coming in with what I call QE4-ever.”"
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/81C7ED58-A908-11EA-A7A9-74C2BC06B896

From his self published bio:
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global
investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in New York City. He was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. He taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.

In 2020, Dr. Ed published *Fed Watching for Fun & Profit*, which is rated 5.0/5.0 by five reviewers. In this guide, Dr. Ed, one of the world’s most experienced and widely followed “Fed watchers,” helps investors to understand the FOMC’s decision-making process, anticipate its moves, and profit from those insights.

Dr. Ed is one of LinkedIn's 2019 Top Voices in economy & finance.


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## finicky (8 June 2020)

*Weekly S&P500* chart buoyant - getting a bit more optimistic that the timing of @DaveHcontrarian won't be askew and I won't regret  delaying through a nail biting month of June to sell a chunk of shares in the new financial year.
Taken just as a chart I can't see anything wrong with this at all for bulls yet, on the contrary.
@DaveHcontrarian allows for possible 200-250 point pullback soon but that will be a short interruption of the bungee shot to over 4,000 possibly 4,500

S&P500 2YR WEEKLY


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## finicky (10 June 2020)

[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian 
15h 

Replying to[/URL]
@TheBitcoinFreak
Druckenmiller has already admitted he was wrong. You are welcome to sit this bull leg out. *Just know that you will have missed what i expect to be the biggest 6 month move in history
*


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## Chronos-Plutus (10 June 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Imagine being a serious macro strategist with more than 40 years of experience on Wall Street and people put you on some kind of f***ed up pedestal, calling you a prophet.




I would only be willing to do 5 years on Wall Street , if the offer was made in the next few months and it was financially worth my while.


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## finicky (13 June 2020)

DaveHcontrarian has refined his target a little for Gold in the 'melt-up' stage and now puts it at $2300 USD. His downside target in the bust to follow now is a likely $1700 USD. Hardly calamitous for Australian Gold or Australian Gold miners since that would put the Australian Gold price at around $2,400 AUD if the pair rate is sustained, but should be more favourable to Australia if the USD becomes last resort for many? Contrary to fundamentals the Oz gold stocks should still be sold down though because of pessimism and liquidity needs, just as happened in March 2020 and in 2008 GFC - my view.

He remains adamant that a melt-up still lies ahead for the S&P500 





David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
5h
"I think there's a good chance that we just had a successful test of yesterday's sell-off & that we've seen the lows for this sharp, short pullback. If so, it will be onward & upward from here with a melt-up on its way as investors grow more confident with reopening of the economy."

"I'm expecting gold to rally to $2300 & silver $35 this year, then sell-off in the second stage of the bust. I don't think gold goes down to $1000, maybe $1700. Silver maybe $25. In the inflation driven recovery cycle that follows I expect gold to rise to $10,000+ & silver $300+."


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## finicky (13 June 2020)

@swadeep_c
 Replying to 
@DaveHcontrarian
"Great call David. I think you’ve been spot on with clear narratives. Saw this chart earlier today and one of the comments was... this could mean SP500 to 4500! Thought of you!"







David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·6h
Replying to
@swadeep_c

*"And still a lot more liquidity to come"*


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## finicky (17 June 2020)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
2h
"You missed the first half of the rally but at least you are onboard for the second half. S&P should be above 4000 within two months. Melt-up just getting started.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
12h
"I think the bond market had its rally. With the economy in recovery mode & the stock market headed for a parabolic melt-up,we likely see rates rise here & bonds sell off. I think the 10yr yield heads back up to 1.40%-1.50% & the 30yr back toward 2%. After this correction 10yr to 0%.

"I don't expect further stalling. I expect the metals to trade up with the stock market this summer."


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## finicky (17 June 2020)

The Fed unlimited + retail 'investors'. Stocks being overvalued doesn't matter ..


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## Lead3r (23 June 2020)

I agree, fed reserves going through QE with digital currency seem to be avoiding inflation in cpi.

Japan's central bank over the past 10yrs has been buying up its bonds. To the tune of 7 trillion last I checked. (1-2)yrs ago Still no real inflation.

Fed reserve for US is churning out cash.

Where is the inflation hiding?
Financial instruments


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## Knobby22 (28 June 2020)

Lead3r said:


> I agree, fed reserves going through QE with digital currency seem to be avoiding inflation in cpi.
> 
> Japan's central bank over the past 10yrs has been buying up its bonds. To the tune of 7 trillion last I checked. (1-2)yrs ago Still no real inflation.
> 
> ...



Inflation will come. It will be stagflation.
We really want to concentrate on getting debt down while we can.


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## qldfrog (28 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Inflation will come. It will be stagflation.
> We really want to concentrate on getting debt down while we can.



 Bad start for governments all over the world this year....


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## finicky (30 June 2020)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·12m
This small correction has done its job. Sentiment has turned very negative & once again we have a big wall of worry to climb. *Market should emerge from its correction this week* & head for my summer target of S&P 4200-4500. Tech leadership will resume as well. Miners look good too


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## finicky (1 July 2020)

[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
12h[/URL]
Gotta love the metals & miners here. *They are coming alive* & are poised for their best runs in a decade. Gold to $2300, silver to $35, GDX to $55, GDXJ to $100, SIL to $75, SILJ to $30. Should be quite a ride.


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## finicky (4 July 2020)

Out today!


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## finicky (5 July 2020)

This webinar segment apparently went to air March 16 2020 with say a week to go before the U.S market pivots into a V reversal. We know that now, but listen to the casual confidence with which @DaveHcontrarian says from 4m27s that he believes that this March crash is *not* the final bust and the C.Bs will step in, end the crash and direct the market into a final bull leg.  In the midst of that mayhem, cool as a cucumber and right.


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## finicky (8 July 2020)

I thought this series of response tweets from @DaveHcontrarian was interesting because they bear on the inflationary recovery cycle that he predicts post the 2021 bust.

The drivers of this recovery are predicted to be a commodities inflation and an industrial surge deriving from massive money creation. But why those - why commodities and industry? Why not consumerism and financial and land assets inflation? I don't really get it but the twitter exchange includes a number of reasons, including notably to me "the commodity cycle".

Also below I've put a Commodities Index vs S&P500 long term chart that is a bit outdated (May 2019) but reminds us of the secular low of this ratio.

Also, fwiw, take this opportunity to say that I have already begun my sell down to 30% cash and am halfway to my goal. I will largely miss out on the 2 months 'melt-up' ahead but it's a relaxed feeling cashing up here in July. I have so far sold down: IRI, DTL, CDA, ADH, TRS - all stocks that I would have normally kept if not for the dire situation that I believe lies ahead. Soon I will pare back even my gold stocks. I infrequently sell stocks. Obviously not advice, I'm just following someone else's views and putting my bets on the table.

The twitter exchange:




[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
Jul 4[/URL]
We are headed for the first deflationary downturn in over 80 years & the worst downturn (bust) since the Great Depression so the CBs won't prevent it. However, their massive monetary response will eventually lead to a big industrial-driven recovery 2022-2028/29.




[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/XuXuelian']Xuelian Xu
@XuXuelia·[/URL]
Jul 5

Thanks Dave ! In the industrial driven recovery period, what will be the best investment? Technology and or precious metals ?



[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian']David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
July 5[/URL]
New cycles bring new leadership.This cycle has been all about social media & other technology, healthcare, consumer,both staples & discretionary, and utilities. Next cycle will be led by commodities including energy, industrials & precious metals. Indexes will lag.Bonds will lag.





[URL='https://mobile.twitter.com/jybacle']jean yves bacle
@jybacle
July 5[/URL]
This commodity based reflation will be driven and compounded by the IOT & 5G digitation , robotics + AI + 4th industrial revolution phase of the New Industrial Age morphing into a newly built 21st century hyper productive and efficient infrastructure




David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

Replying to
@jybacle
@XuXuelian
and 2 others

No doubt that will be part of the story as well as capacity coming back from China, fiscal appropriations for infrastructure upgrade, military build-up, *commodity cycle* & massive monetary expansion.


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## finicky (19 July 2020)

Time for a Dave Hunter reminder - my market guru, lol
Sold a few more CDA last week, selling some gold miners will be harder.
Charts of the ETFs he mentioned on July 15th are thumbnailed: viz: energy, industrials and financials.



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
Jul 15
XLE, XLI & XLF are poised to begin catch-up rallies as the market enters its melt-up phase. Semis, miners & FAANG will continue to lead. Defensive groups like utilities & consumer staples will be the laggards.


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## finicky (3 August 2020)

Since I've been promoting David Hunter as a Seer with perfect future vision (a little ironically) I should post here a link and entry from his 'Seeking Alpha' page from April 2018. Please do a double take on that date *April 10, 2018*. It's pretty much the blue print he has given for 2020-2021 except he was saying that the foretold events would begin in 2018.

While I now think his timing sucks, it has, strangely perhaps, not shaken all that much my acceptance of his basic story. He simply rebuts that he is not a precise dater and adjusts his predictions as things change.

I will continue to adjust my 'p/f' (i.e cash up) in agreement with his outlook but just take that global deflationary bust starting date (Labor Day 2020 in US) with a lot of scepticism.

*Quote Dave Hunter April 10, 2018 on his Leading Alpha page:*

"I think the likelihood is we top out in the second quarter and begin the bear market in the second half of this year. The market will roll over before the economy *but I think the bust likely gets underway before the end of 2018* as well. I am forecasting what I expect to be the worst global downturn in the post WWII era, the first global deflationary downturn since the Great Depression and potentially the biggest financial crisis in history. It is not a trading call. It is a macro cycle call describing what is coming when this cycle ends. It is also not the "end of the world" scenario that some are forecasting. There will be an inflation-driven recovery cycle following this downturn. We will see price appreciation, particularly in the commodity sector, that will dwarf the price movement of the late seventies and early eighties. So in other words, deflation will beget inflation as the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system and save it from total collapse. This means massive money printing and with a lag, inflation. Once this gets started, it will happen fast. The massive debt and derivative exposure will speed everything. The exits will get very crowded and there will be a heavy price to be paid for being late. Illiquid sell-off will be what defines this unwind. February was but a tiny window into what is coming."

Apr 10, 2018. 
https://seekingalpha.com/user/8405611/comments


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## finicky (10 August 2020)

3 August podcast


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## moXJO (11 August 2020)

finicky said:


> 3 August podcast




God... if this came true then I'd invite you all to my own private island (clothing optional).
I just can't see silver going to $300. I'll secretly hope, but can't see it happening.


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## finicky (11 August 2020)

He foresees a highly inflationary scenario for commodities accompanying an industrial boom post 2021. You'll need to be patient - if he's correct $300 silver is out to around 2028 and *first* the *bust* in 2021 where he expects a big DROP in the silver price along with just about everything else and has mentioned $10 usd silver although he's a bit uncertain how low.
Also, though so far I forgive him this, his timing has been off - he's been expecting the global deflationary bust since 2018. If he's right about the nature and sequence of macro events the precise timing isn't too material, to me at least.
He includes long multi decade cycles in his reasoning along with big fundamentals like goverment spending, central bank printing, debt and derivatives.  I'm having a bob each way - keeping ~70% of my shares but liquidating quite a bit and maintaining exposure to precious metals.


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## tech/a (11 August 2020)

It will likely happen when Trump stops spending.
Covid continues and govt's pull back on support.
Businesses who have survived through support 
disappear and un employment remains very high.

Banks start foreclosing on deferred payments which 
have for a time staved off the inevitable in both housing
and business loans.

October/November.
Get set for short indexes.


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## tech/a (11 August 2020)

finicky said:


> So in other words,* deflation will beget inflation as the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system* and save it from total collapse. This means massive money printing and with a lag, inflation. Once this gets started, it will happen fast. The massive debt and derivative exposure will speed everything. The exits will get very crowded and there will be a heavy price to be paid for being late. Illiquid sell-off will be what defines this unwind.




If we transpose that in black with

COVID will see *the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system

The picture is a little clearer.*


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## finicky (11 August 2020)

tech/a said:


> If we transpose that in black with - COVID will see *the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system - t*he picture is a little clearer*.*



I have to demur, at least regarding that which my guru foretells. He has been predicting a global deflationary bust for at least two years before CCP biological warfare came on the scene. My interpretation is that he is saying that Covid will perhaps trigger and amplify the end of a secular debt cycle, an end that will be exacerbated by derivatives. A liquidity crisis that was in the works before CV19 wherein everything that can be sold will be sold. Covid is an extraneous event that he couldn't predict (of course) and has delayed the ominous preliminary 'melt-up' currently in progress. Like an ocean receding from the shore before a monstrous incoming sushi. Worse than 1929.


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## tech/a (11 August 2020)

Yes agree


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## qldfrog (11 August 2020)

finicky said:


> Like an ocean receding from the shore before a monstrous incoming sushi



Finicky, I assume you mean tsunami as we will not have much sushi to gorge on if this happens. ;-)
More seriously so, if all investments initially collapse we have to move everything to fiat then back into gold silver?
That could be quite difficult due to gov interference;whole countries in house arrest for a virus which is in all perspective minor, if a crisis threaten the foundations of our society, I expect the worst in term of finance control
Assuming you believe in these predictions, IMHO, this is not tinhat conspiracy and could indeed happen, how do you protect yourself here in Oz?


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## Richard Dale (11 August 2020)

We might need to come up with a refresh version of this definition:

Tech wreck: - the end of the dot.com bubble. Surprisingly enough, many observers predicted the wreck in advance. As time went on, more and more of these observers came forward.

For more satire like this:
https://norgatedata.com/alternative.php


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## finicky (11 August 2020)

Richard Dale said:


> For more satire like this:
> https://norgatedata.com/alternative.php




Lol, fun read. Couple of samples:

"*Market report*: - a concise explanation of why a market traded up or down. 99% of market reports are drawn from other market reports. The remainder are whimsical"

"*Stop-loss*: - the trader's equivalent of a condom. It's something you know you should have used after it's too late."


----------



## finicky (11 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Assuming you believe in these predictions, IMHO, this is not tinhat conspiracy and could indeed happen, how do you protect yourself here in Oz?




Well, with the caveat I don't know what the intercourse I'm doing, I have been scared into selling a significant portion of my shares. Not 30% yet, but 2/3rds of the way there. No way would I have sold these shares normally. Cash - an underrated financial asset. I don't need to buy gold or silver as I aready have a sufficient allocated physical account with my dealer. I won't be risking selling gold or silver even though I accept it will be hit. Gold's recovery should be rapid imo. I will consider putting a bit of the cash into a bear etf but not much as I don't really understand etfs and am not sure of counter party risks in the event of a collapse - who does the etf collect from if companies or institutions are going bankrupt? I will probably hold some of the cash in USD etf if I get advice that it has bottomed. I will probably put some of the cash into Australian Govt Bonds etf. These last two are from casual advice I got elswhere.

Maybe I'm being a Debbie Downer and it won't happen, I wouldn't be taking these radical steps if hadn't accidentally come across @DaveHcontrarian on twitter. Also been influenced by Vern Gowdie and a guy called Clifford Bennett who is always relentlessly positive but in the Covid crash was bug-eyed about "protecting your nest egg"


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## qldfrog (11 August 2020)

Fair enough, i expect the usd usd to fall a bit and looking a bit elsewhere
I have a few euro but Europe is a collapsing setup and uk will join.
Any easy way to get swiss franc or yen here in oz..obviously not in notes but bonds or etf?


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## moXJO (11 August 2020)

finicky said:


> Lol, fun read. Couple of samples:
> 
> "*Stop-loss*: - the trader's equivalent of a condom. It's something you know you should have used after it's too late."



Love this one...


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## finicky (11 August 2020)

@qldfrog
Here's a screenshot of currency ETFs on the ASX. Slim pickings really. Interestingly there's a strong USD one that I didn't know about - YANK.
Dave Hunter says he expects the USD to retain its flight to be safety status in the bust.
I thought of the Swiss franc too but it's missing on the list as is the Yen. I assume this list is current and complete.
Once again though, are we sure that the etf structure will hold intact under the most extreme conditions?
https://www.asx.com.au/products/etf/managed-funds-etp-product-list.htm


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## Chronos-Plutus (12 August 2020)

finicky said:


> 3 August podcast





I generally agree.

Basic take away for me is just to make sure that you have enough cash and precious metals to get through the volatile phase; stay away from derivatives; and keep your powder dry (cash-on-hand) to buy in when precious metals and equities are cheap/oversold, with a focus on commodity producing and particularly precious metal producing equities.


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## qldfrog (12 August 2020)

finicky said:


> @qldfrog
> Here's a screenshot of currency ETFs on the ASX. Slim pickings really. Interestingly there's a strong USD one that I didn't know about - YANK.
> Dave Hunter says he expects the USD to retain its flight to be safety status in the bust.
> I thought of the Swiss franc too but it's missing on the list as is the Yen. I assume this list is current and complete.
> ...



Thanks was not aware of YANK.
I arrived at the same conclusion about YEN and Swiss franc after similar research a few months ago.
No certainty with ETF but no other real choice
I trust the PMGold..maybe optimistic but otherwise...I will not forget the OOO ETF story...
A currency ETF should be fundamentally OK , if not geared but what if the provider goes bankrupted on other tools...etc etc


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## finicky (17 August 2020)

fwiw, Tony Locantro is telling his clients to shelter a bit in leveraged bear etfs: BBOZ and BBUS, and to keep averaging in. Towards end of interview.
As an aside, his biotech tips that were bashed in the CCP Plague have gone well.


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## finicky (17 August 2020)

*Silver*
@DaveHcontrarian on twitter takes offence easily and is testy, not to say up a bit up himself imo, about being loosely quoted. So in deference I will correct a comment that I made on Tuesday on this thread about his prediction for silver at the depth of the near future global deflationary bust. I believe I remember him once playing with the possibility of $10 an oz as a worst case scenario but he clearly believes it won't be as bad as that. Keep in mind that he is massively bullish silver in the inflationary recovery cycle that he says will follow the brutally short bust.  Here he is sharply pulling up some other upstart misstating his authority:



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Aug 14
"Please don't try to repeat my forecasts because you end up misstating them. This isn't the first time. I think silver could correct to the *mid 20's* from the mid 30's."


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## finicky (2 September 2020)

My lead macro market guru is getting a bit wobbly as to timing in his commentary it seems to me. He no longer mentions Labor Day in the U.S as a market turning point. That's good because it's only a few days away! (Sept 7) and we haven't even had the 'melt-up' yet. A more vague 2021 date is now being used to milestone the global deflationary bust along with the qualifier "high probability". I still feel a lot more relaxed with a cash cushion since taking onboard his views. Still a fanboi.



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Sep 1
"I continue to forecast a deflationary bust in 2021 but we may see some pick-up in inflation indicators near-term as oil & grain prices rise in coming weeks. Energy, financial & industrial stocks are likely beneficiaries if this occurs.
*"My forecasts are always probability based but I I think a bust in 2021 is a high probability event."*


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## Porper (2 September 2020)

finicky said:


> My lead macro market guru is getting a bit wobbly as to timing in his commentary it seems to me. He no longer mentions Labor Day in the U.S as a market turning point. That's good because it's only a few days away! (Sept 7) and we haven't even had the 'melt-up' yet. A more vague 2021 date is now being used to milestone the global deflationary bust along with the qualifier "high probability". I still feel a lot more relaxed with a cash cushion since taking onboard his views. Still a fanboi.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I think he'll be correct. 

He just needs to add a year each time his last prediction is invalidated. Then he'll be a hero.

Nobody can predict the absolute high or low on a consistent basis. Nobody I know of anyway.


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## finicky (9 September 2020)

Dean Sawatzky
@dean_sawatzky
·2h
Hi David. Love your work and the podcasts you’ve been on in the recent past. Do you think the swoon of the past few days is the start of the downturn or is there more upside in stocks - to the highs at S&P 4000+?




David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·1h
My forecast hasn't changed. I am still calling for a melt-up to S&P 4200-4500 before the election.


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## finicky (1 October 2020)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·22m

The melt-up is beginning. October will be strong. Should see S&P to 4500, DJIA to 36,000 & Nasdaq to 15,000 in 4th qtr. We will also see gold to $2300-$2500 & silver to $35-$36. GDX to $55, GDXJ to $100, SIL to $75, SILJ to $30. Oil to $50-$55. T-bonds beginning a correction.


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## Smurf1976 (1 October 2020)

finicky said:


> The melt-up is beginning. October will be strong. Should see S&P to 4500



I'm not convinced about gold and oil but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the US stock indices go up like that.

My thinking is along the lines of a rally being orchestrated in an attempt to influence the election or at least profit from it. That's a but conspiracy theory like but I think it's plausible - we're talking about the US Presidential election here not the local council etc.


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## qldfrog (2 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not convinced about gold and oil but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the US stock indices go up like that.
> 
> My thinking is along the lines of a rally being orchestrated in an attempt to influence the election or at least profit from it. That's a but conspiracy theory like but I think it's plausible - we're talking about the US Presidential election here not the local council etc.



Only trouble with that conspiracy theory is that the money would prefer a crash to ensure Trump is not re-elected,from the usual suspects in the US a la Soros and silicon valley giants to Chinese feds.
But thankfully, markets have a life on their on, especially with billions of stimulus.


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## finicky (5 October 2020)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·9h

I continue to believe that October is going to be a big turnaround month for both the stock market and the precious metals. Both are set up for big reversals upward. Could be a very historic month for the markets.

Elena Okhonko
@vzdoh
·9h

Replying to
@DaveHcontrarian

BTW August rally was quite historic!





David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·9h

August was a nice rally. *I expect the October rally to be truly historic.*


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## finicky (8 November 2020)

My guru keeps climbing out on a limb. Hope he's right - but imagine the violence of antifa (the anti-fascists, lol) and BLM (defenders of oppressed criminals and exponents of burn loot murder and mayhem) - if he *is* right.




David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·
*"I don't expect Biden to be President*. Trump will prevail in the courts due to massive voter fraud.The media is doing all they can to convince us that the election is over & Biden is President-elect.Don't fall for it.This election is far from over. It will be decided in the courts"


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## tech/a (8 November 2020)

finicky said:


> My guru keeps climbing out on a limb. Hope he's right - but imagine the violence of antifa (the anti-fascists, lol) and BLM (defenders of oppressed criminals and exponents of burn loot murder and mayhem) - if he *is* right.
> 
> View attachment 114335
> 
> ...




These people are more dangerous than any virus.


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## Balder (18 December 2020)

finicky said:


> My guru keeps climbing out on a limb. Hope he's right - but imagine the violence of antifa (the anti-fascists, lol) and BLM (defenders of oppressed criminals and exponents of burn loot murder and mayhem) - if he *is* right.
> 
> View attachment 114335
> 
> ...



Your guru was a bit off there but his recent melt up comments and interview on Crux investor is very good and more plausible.


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## finicky (5 January 2021)

My guru speaks, sit on your cushions.

 David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

All systems go for the metals. Gold poised to run to $2500 & silver to $45 in the 1st Qtr.The miners will follow suit with GDX headed for $55,GDXJ $100,SIL $75 & SILJ $30.After big gains in the 2nd & 3rd Qtr,metals & miners consolidated those gains for 4 mos. Next upleg has begun

1:10 AM · Jan 5, 2021


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## Mateo Furbacchione (6 January 2021)

Hind sight is a wonderful thing.  I just found this thread about the coming collapse...  Not to knock the OP but these guys are a dime a dozen and will eventually get it right when they keep adding months and years to their predictions.  I think they are more like investment teachers.  They suck at actual investing and are trying to bank on their prediction finally "paying off", and then they can ride the talk show circuit for a year or so... 

I read a good Forbes article recently on the eight people that predicted the GFC...  I liked his argument in that he says none of them actually predicted anything other than to state simple economic theory, i.e. debt loads got too high and no one could pay them back.  As opposed to actually predicting the collapse.

If anything then I should get credit for predicting the GFC first.  I saw it coming in 2004, a year before any of the other shonks did.  ;-)


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## finicky (6 January 2021)

The GFC  started to manifest in mid to late 2007 depending on what you focus on: housing, stock market.
When someone is predicting a rare global event I am prepared to forgive him timing error. Peter Schiff was clearly and bravely predicting the housing and stock market collapse but was a year or two early from memory. He has also admitted that gold didn't prove the immediate save haven he expected at the time and nor did he expect that the governments and central banks would be able to reflate so quickly and effectively. David Hunter's timing so far sucks but he will still have done me and others a service if a global bust happens this year or next because he has been convincing enough to make me prepare.


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## sptrawler (6 January 2021)

The main difference this time is, the debt isn't private sector, in reality it is public sector debt.
Which in recent history has been kept low, this time it is being used as a shock absorber, how they sort out the eventual fallout will be interesting. But I do think they have thought about it, so let's see what happens, it really is a massive socialist stimulus injection to keep the capitalist machine lubricated.
Just my thoughts


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## Smurf1976 (6 January 2021)

Mateo Furbacchione said:


> I read a good Forbes article recently on the eight people that predicted the GFC... I liked his argument in that he says none of them actually predicted anything other than to state simple economic theory, i.e. debt loads got too high and no one could pay them back. As opposed to actually predicting the collapse.
> 
> If anything then I should get credit for predicting the GFC first. I saw it coming in 2004, a year before any of the other shonks did. ;-)




I liken it to the risk of a building catching fire. We know that it's possible and we know that fires do happen and so we have smoke detectors in buildings and we have fire brigades. 

In the meantime though we carry on living as normal, we don't spend our time fretting about the small possibility of a fire. Only if the alarm sounds or we smell smoke do we become concerned and in that case we take it extremely seriously until proven that it's a false alarm.

Same with the markets. We know that major declines do occur and should I see the signs of one then I'll take it extremely seriously. In the meantime, make sure the alarm works, know what it sounds like and what you'll do if it goes off but party on so long as it's not sounding.


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## Smurf1976 (6 January 2021)

finicky said:


> The GFC started to manifest in mid to late 2007 depending on what you focus on:



I recall paying attention to a website that was tracking the number of mortgage lenders failing and that was months before it hit the headlines.

So yes, the alarm was well and truly sounding at that point.


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## Smurf1976 (6 January 2021)

finicky said:


> David Hunter's timing so far sucks but he will still have done me and others a service if a global bust happens this year or next because he has been convincing enough to make me prepare.



Take more water out of the dam than the annual inflow and I can tell you with 100% certainty that it will run dry.

No chance I'll get the exact date right too far in advance though since even though the situation is known to be unsustainable, there's still unknowns with short term weather patterns and so on.

Same with anything financial. Eg the pandemic will have brought unstuck quite a lot of things that were doomed anyway but would have carried on for some years yet had it (the pandemic) not occurred.

There's always going to be those short term influences that making the timing hard to predict even if the underlying situation is readily apparent.


----------



## sptrawler (6 January 2021)

finicky said:


> The GFC  started to manifest in mid to late 2007 depending on what you focus on: housing, stock market.
> When someone is predicting a rare global event I am prepared to forgive him timing error. Peter Schiff was clearly and bravely predicting the housing and stock market collapse but was a year or two early from memory. He has also admitted that gold didn't prove the immediate save haven he expected at the time and nor did he expect that the governments and central banks would be able to reflate so quickly and effectively. David Hunter's timing so far sucks but he will still have done me and others a service if a global bust happens this year or next because he has been convincing enough to make me prepare.



A quote I read a long time ago, well before the GFC, stated that when you look at your shares and think I wouldn't buy them at this price, it is time to worry. That was the case before the GFC, share prices were stupid.
So do you have a lot of shares in your portfolio that you think are at stupidly high prices? I don't.
But hey I've been wrong before and if it all turns to manure everything gets hit, but at this point in time with massive injections of stimulus and infrastructure spending, why will it collapse? After all it is only money.  
As smurf said ride the wave and try to work out when it breaks.


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## aus_trader (7 January 2021)

tech/a said:


> It will likely happen when Trump stops spending.
> Covid continues and govt's pull back on support.
> Businesses who have survived through support
> disappear and un employment remains very high.
> ...



Although timing may be off from your prediction, I think what you said is likely to be the eventual outcome, unfortunately. I agree with all of the above except for one point about businesses.

I don't know of many businesses that have survived through *support*... what support ? Yes there is some support for housing as always in Australia, which in turn supports construction, real estate and few other businesses such as Building Materials companies (_Disclosure:_ I hold Building Materials company CSR Ltd in *Speculative Stock Portfolio *which has done well as a result). But most businesses had to fend for themselves through lock-downs and virus fears and some even went out of business such as Virgin Airlines and countless small businesses that couldn't afford to keep their doors open.

Individuals however did get *support* in terms of Job (S/K) eek/per schemes including a huge pay rise for the Unemployed / Dole recipients.


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## Smurf1976 (7 January 2021)

FWIW There's a few "black box" type indicators I keep a watch on so far as indices are concerned. Nothing fancy, just sites which compile multiple technical indicators into a single number and things like that.

The S&P500 looks healthy but there's a few alarm bells ringing so far as the ASX200 is concerned.

I don't trade directly based on that, it's just background information, but still.


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## aus_trader (7 January 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> FWIW There's a few "black box" type indicators I keep a watch on so far as indices are concerned. Nothing fancy, just sites which compile multiple technical indicators into a single number and things like that.
> 
> The S&P500 looks healthy but there's a few alarm bells ringing so far as the ASX200 is concerned.
> 
> I don't trade directly based on that, it's just background information, but still.



What's wrong with ASX200 ?


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## qldfrog (7 January 2021)

aus_trader said:


> What's wrong with ASX200 ?



Overvalued vs the US as we are in an actual economic war with our best customer.
How do you think it will ends


----------



## qldfrog (7 January 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Although timing may be off from your prediction, I think what you said is likely to be the eventual outcome, unfortunately. I agree with all of the above except for one point about businesses.
> 
> I don't know of many businesses that have survived through *support*... what support ? Yes there is some support for housing as always in Australia, which in turn supports construction, real estate and few other businesses such as Building Materials companies (_Disclosure:_ I hold Building Materials company CSR Ltd in *Speculative Stock Portfolio *which has done well as a result). But most businesses had to fend for themselves through lock-downs and virus fears and some even went out of business such as Virgin Airlines and countless small businesses that couldn't afford to keep their doors open.
> 
> Individuals however did get *support* in terms of Job (S/K) eek/per schemes including a huge pay rise for the Unemployed / Dole recipients.



Jobkeeper is a company support as is the cash flow incentive of last year.
Will it be sufficient? I doubt it
My own company a case in point.I was in a startup in China.money flowing from China into my oz Pty Ltd then covid19 happened.
By jan 2020, i basically was unable to travel back and forth.still ongoing.company in China carries on.here well i am in a zombie company mode.so either i restart a business from scratch or close.
Why would i restart? The economics did not kill it, the gov. decisions did.And now the economic war.
I try to save the shell and reorient but motivation is low, red tape increasing seriously each year, why bother...not worth the effort here.. 
So yes australian Gov supports the companies he is killing but just creating zombies by the 1000s.
Do not expect a restart.once jobkeeper is over they will close.at least,it will be orderly.


----------



## aus_trader (7 January 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Jobkeeper is a company support as is the cash flow incentive of last year.
> Will it be sufficient? I doubt it
> My own company a case in point.I was in a startup in China.money flowing from China into my oz Pty Ltd then covid19 happened.
> By jan 2020, i basically was unable to travel back and forth.still ongoing.company in China carries on.here well i am in a zombie company mode.so either i restart a business from scratch or close.
> ...



You've said it @qldfrog , that is the same view I have of the situation. Things seem to be fine at the *surface* level:


house prices going through the roof
stock prices doing OK (I am glad as I have exposure)
China related stocks going through the roof (BHP, FMG), so I think all that talk in the media about tensions with the best trading buddy bust be made up BS !
Anyone who had a job before Covid doing fine and living as normal on Job S/Peaker schemes or working from home (thank God (OK Govt) for preventing masses out onto the street and into homelessness that would've made GFC situation in the US look like a walk in the park)
Chronic Unemployed/Dole generations living it up on their promotions (if they know how to re-apply under the appropriate scheme and re-jig the system for a massive pay rise . Oh I shouldn't have said that  )
So looks like if we had a blip followed by a massive boom during the GFC, we might not even have a blip during this boom Australia 💃

What a LUCKY country


----------



## finicky (10 March 2021)

Gold's up 🌈
My guru speaks:



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

It is amazing to see so many *great set-ups* this late in a bull cycle.The Nasdaq, tech stocks, *gold* & T-bonds *are all very oversold & at important inflection points*.All should have great runs just ahead. Nasdaq to 17,000, *gold to 2500* & the 10yr to .95%. *Wow, just wow! Historical.*

2:38 PM · Mar 9, 2021


----------



## joeno (10 March 2021)

Speculative frenzy partly created by irresponsible amateurish policies (the US fed) with irreverence to fundamentals. A lot of money to be made? Sure. Will it keep going up? Maybe. But based on wishful thinking. Not cashflows.


----------



## Porper (10 March 2021)

finicky said:


> Gold's up 🌈
> My guru speaks:
> 
> View attachment 121104
> ...



He has been 100% wrong over the years if you go back and look at his calls.

Reminds me of Prechter from Elliott Wave International.  Constantly calling for a crash for more than a decade.


----------



## finicky (10 March 2021)

@Porper well you give me a secular blue-print then and I'll follow you! 
I'm not proud and have absolutely no reason to be - except that I've lost 5kg by time restricted eating.


----------



## finicky (10 March 2021)

My guru is pretty off in the timing of his calls and always wriggles out of this by saying he's a macro strategist or something and not a market timer for traders. Yet he continues to put a time frame-work on the big transitions he expects to unfold, e.g, He expects a "melt up", probably in the second quarter of 2021, that will be the preliminary to an historic crash. He does seek to mitigate past timing errors by saying that he is sketching out the end of a multi decade bull market, a massive global bust and a multi-year industrially driven relationary recovery in which gold for example will go to $10,000+, big epic moves, implying I think that he should be given a bit of timing latitude.


----------



## Porper (10 March 2021)

finicky said:


> @Porper well you give me a secular blue-print then and I'll follow you!
> I'm not proud and have absolutely no reason to be - except that I've lost 5kg by time restricted eating.



If I could time the markets I'd let you follow me lol. Unfortunately I can't.

30 yrs in the markets and I haven't met anybody that can project highs and lows on a consistent basis. The good news is that you don't need to as a few on here have shown. Peter2 etc


----------



## finicky (10 March 2021)

My guru should be given points for the important, let alone the epic moves if he gets them right. The timing of them is much less significant for me. 

He has remained steadfast through lot of negativity that big upward moves lie ahead for gold, silver and equities. If this happens he should be given points as how many have stayed firm over the last year about that? Even during the Covid breakdown he was coolly adamant that this was not the global deflationary bust that he had been predicting, it was merely an interruption and the melt up still lay ahead. 

Recently he predicted 10 yr yields to reach 1.5% when they were still ultra low and had not made an upward move. Points from me. Now he's saying that they will drop to 1%. Points if that happens. If we get the melt-up move, even if its late, points will not suffice. I will take to the road wearing a sheet and carrying a begging bowl to collect alms in the village for my guru.

Deduct a point for predicting that the fraudulent Joe Biden win would be overturned in the Supreme Court.


----------



## finicky (9 April 2021)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

Gold & silver are set up for big rallies ahead. I expect a declining dollar, declining interest rates & continuing signs of increasing inflation to propel gold to $2500 & silver to $45-$50 in the mos ahead. *Miners will be big beneficiaries*. Targets: GDX $60,GDXJ $100,SIL $75,SILJ $35.


----------



## finicky (22 April 2021)

Reiterates stocks 'Melt Up' still ahead in Q2 with a global deflationary bust to follow, inclusive of an 80% stock market crash. Equity market will be the biggest bubble to pop.

One talking point is that gold & silver are emerging from 8 month consolidations with big upside directly ahead.

He says short term people are negative about gold because they look at a yearly chart but it pays to step back and view a long term chart and he says he loves the charts of gold and silver and sees (maturing) flag formations from August. Similar vein to Marc Faber's recent remarks I think. All the giants like gold, I'm a pretty towering figure myself, lol

"Leverage will create the Largest Global Financial Crisis in History"


----------



## finicky (7 July 2021)

Thought I'd throw in this mini declamatory speech from Stanley Druckenmiller. I had difficulty interpreting what he said but it seems consistent with D. Hunter's outlook in  that he uses the term "deflationary bust" and expects a bursting of inflated assets and I *think* he is saying then to expect consumer inflation. Would be interesting to know his view on Gold. Impressive figure from his Wiki entry.





__





						Grandich Philosophy - Peter Grandich and Company
					

“As I approach 40 years in and around the financial services industry, I am extremely proud yet humbled by the recognition I have received from individuals, the financial media and my peers. I truly treat celebrities as people and our people as celebrities.” – Peter Grandich




					petergrandich.com


----------



## aus_trader (8 July 2021)

finicky said:


> Thought I'd throw in this mini declamatory speech from Stanley Druckenmiller. I had difficulty interpreting what he said but it seems consistent with D. Hunter's outlook in  that he uses the term "deflationary bust" and expects a bursting of inflated assets and I *think* he is saying then to expect consumer inflation. Would be interesting to know his view on Gold. Impressive figure from his Wiki entry.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting findings @finicky as always.

I think the consumer inflation is starting to happen now, it's just not really talked about by the media. Or they are banned from doing so, because they want to keep the interest rates at zero for as long as possible.

And agree, the poor people will feel it more in the US according to the video as the FED money feeds the rich over there via asset price rise.

Not sure if it's the same effect down under. I could be wrong but I think the plastic notes are a bit better distributed here amongst the population.


----------



## finicky (10 July 2021)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

"Lots of investors overreacted to yesterday's sell-off but the set-up is clear.Equity markets & gold & silver headed sharply higher while USD ready to head sharply lower. Oil is heading lower. Tech,esp semis & FAANG,will lead but also industrials,materials,homebuilders & biotech."


----------



## finicky (30 August 2021)

*David Hunter: Get prepared for a massive 80% stock market crash by the end of 2021*


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent ' , 

 yes i know it is an old quote , but boy-oh-boy doesn't it look relevant currently 

 i have been waiting for this crash since mid-2013 ( assuming March 2020 was only a nasty correction since it didn't break the long-term trendline )

 all the indications have been there for years , flashing brightly since September 2019    ... but here we are tripping around fantasy land not far from new record highs  in Australia , and pushing to new record levels in some other nations 

 BUT what do you do to protect yourself  ??

 sure i have some spare cash , with some take-over cash and div. cash coming  , but please assess carefully  , SOME positions will be worth holding all through this , while reducing or selling will make sense in others 

 about the only thing else to do is have a 'dream list ' ready in case there is a shopping opportunity ( and probably reducing your debt levels might work for you as well .)

 IMO  they have been kicking this can for AT LEAST two years , can they get in another couple of taps


----------



## finicky (28 January 2022)

The guru tweeted an hour or so ago that he expects this stock market correction to have bottomed in the next day or two.
Earlier he tweeted that the tightening rhetoric will fade for the time being as the economy is decelerating. See tweet for his exact words. He expects that the 'melt up' is directly ahead.
In a reply, another I follow, DowGoldEquals1, says Hunter's bullish gold prediction is "too conservative" (see his Dow/Gold chart) 

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
"We're nearing the end of this correction.Sentiment is very bearish.Can still test the lows & perhaps even make lower lows but a historic melt-up is about to get underway.The economy's decelerating & the tightening narrative is peaking.S&P to 6000,Dow 45000,Nasdaq 20000 & RUT 3000"


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## finicky (10 February 2022)

Still sticking his neck out




David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·23h
The rocket is ready to leave the launch pad. The melt-up is getting underway. *Investors are about to discover what a real melt-up looks & feels like.* S&P to 6000,DJIA to 45,000,Nasdaq to 20,000 & RUT to 3,000 in coming weeks & months. Growth & value, large & small cap will all play.


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## brerwallabi (11 February 2022)

40000 Dow Jones it’s coming unfortunately I don’t know how to rant on youtube


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## finicky (7 March 2022)

My god, he's actually admitted a wrong call but still has the arrogance to tell the guy not to be silly.
He has said before that oil had topped
Still calling for a market melt-up though.

Tweeter to Hunter:
"Oil is blowing through the roof. How the heck will it drop 50% to meet your forecast?"





David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·4h
"That forecast is gone now. Don't be silly. Sometimes forecasts don't work out. This is not at all an exact science. My oil forecast was just wrong."


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## finicky (22 May 2022)

He's still at it. Maybe he'll pull it off this time.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
We're at or near important inflection points in many markets.Rates have topped & bonds look ready to run.USD appears poised for a big reversal to the downside.Silver & gold & the miners are beginning big runs to the upside & the equity markets are bottoming & poised for a melt-up
5:17 AM · May 20, 2022


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## Telamelo (22 May 2022)

L


finicky said:


> He's still at it. Maybe he'll pull it off this time.
> 
> David Hunter
> @DaveHcontrarian
> ...



Lol still at it haha  - wonder what he thinks of Gold ?


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## finicky (22 May 2022)

He says gold will go to like US$2,500 in the coming melt-up b4 crashing along with all assets. Then it will rise to like $10,000 in the subsequent reflationary bull market where commodities will soar.


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