# EUR/USD



## SeM0s

EUR/USD

This week we have two likely opposite scenarios in this pair.

Favored Count

The image presented below points towards the end of the downwards blood bath and resumption of the bullish trend. According to this assessment it seems that the move ending at May 09, 2011 (low -1.4255) was most likely the end of the 4th wave of this ongoing C or 3rd wave up. This downward 4th wave compliments the typical nature of 4th waves, such as ending very close to the previous iv wave of the 3rd wave, breaching the lower channel line (marked by joining the highs of wave 1 and wave 3 and then placing on wave 2), ending around 0.382 of wave 3 and taking almost the same number of days to transpire as wave 2 did i.e around 8 days.





​
Going down to the hourly chart presented below , it seems that this 4th was basically an expanded flat, which clearly divides in 3-3-5. With a subdividing in a zigzag ending at May 03, 2011, b again dividing in a zigzag ending at May 04,2011, it seems that the wave C has already ended or is very close to its termination. For now, we favor the view that the wave C has already ended and the uptrend has resumed, since we see clear 5 waves division for this C. The upward move for now seems to have made the i of the 1st wave up or the 3rd wave has already started ( The construction of this ongoing move will decide, which wave we are currently in) and is likely to continue for the upcoming weeks, taking price to new highs. However, this daily wave count is invalidated if we see the price entering in the domain of 1st wave at 1.3860 (High – Feb 02,2011). For now, this is as our first preferred scenario ,we favor going long on any potential pullbacks with stops no further than Feb 02,2011 high of 1.3860.




​
Alternate Count
The alternative scenario, however presents an entirely different situation, likely to be possible in the upcoming weeks. According to this count, it seems that Eur/usd has completed the zigzag up to be marked as B, starting from June 07,2010(Low – 1.1878). The subdivision of this B wave are presented in the chart below. With wave a ending at November 04,2010 (high -  1.4281) , b ending in the form of zigzag at January 10,2011 (Low – 1.2875) , c ending at the recent highs made on May 04,2011 (high – 1.4938) , market is now moving lower to form the last leg to be marked as C wave. This wave count is invalidated with the movement above 1.4938.


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## tothemax6

Thanks for starting this thread.
Euro vs Dollar is the ultimate ugly contest. The EU is a farce that should not exist, and the EUR the monetary manifestation of this farce, and the US central bank is run by a money-printer.
The question as to which will fall is, will the EU crumble faster and throw enough money at bailing out national governments, or will the US suffer inflation fast enough? 

I don't see how anyone can trade EUR/USD based on fundamentals.


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## shulink

I'm bullish on the EUR/USD base on the chart.

EUR/USD Analysis - May 27 2011 
EUR/USD gain 1.2444% on 05/27/11 and a toal percentage of 1.6685% in the past 2 days
EUR/USD is trading in the range of $1.3969 - $1.4939 in the past 30 days.
Average True Range (Atr) is bullish for EUR/USD.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is bullish for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD formed a bullish Price & Exponential Moving Average Crossover signal.
EUR/USD formed a bullish Price & Simple Moving Average Crossover signal.
The 10-day simple moving average is bullish and moving up for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD formed a bearish Stochastic Crossdown signal.
Currency performance base on day of week in the past 90 days.
Monday: -0.8437%
Tuesday: 2.2311%
Wednesday: 0.3199%
Thursday: 2.0957%
Friday: 0.2125%


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## nichole

I am not so sure that fundamental work because if fundamental plays a part, EUR should be crushing now. I just shorted AUD/EUR pair at 0.74709 and using scalping strategy. Hopefully I can close my position before the Aussie stock market open later.


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## hevaystos

*EUR/USD -  POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TO WATCH TODAY*

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TO WATCH TODAY

We continue with our comprehensive investigation on EUR/USD. The weekly chart shows, as we have said in immediately preceding post that the pair is just pulling back to the rising major trend line of a major rising channel. As a result a bounce off current levels or slightly lower should come with no surprise. But, unfortunately, we haven’t specified a trigger; we’ll in this post.

The four Hour chart shows clearly a breakout below the Symmetrical Triangle, a pull back to the breakout level, and a continuation of the prior decline after a failure to stay firm over the broken resistance line. The current correction is retracing, nearly, 50% of the prior rally, and prices are hovering around the lower declining support line. The RSI is declining, but the decline seems weak knowing that a short-term falling Wedge is materializing in the RSI itself. Note: the Mega oversold reading in the RSI, which considers a stand-alone major bearish signal, warns bulls that this time, a decisive conservative signal is needed before picking from a long side.

A rally may take place, off current levels, in both prices and momentum. Conservative traders shouldn’t buck the trend and their trigger will be a decisive up-breakout over this channel (see the circle). Short-term day traders may bet on this prospected bounce. A down-breakout below either the lower support line in the price or the lower declining line in the RSI will weaken the bullish bounce scenario.

Ramy Rashad, CMT
                                         MarketsAnalysis.net


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## OGRooney

Went long Friday morning at 1.2174 for an awesome 209 pips


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## CanOz

OGRooney said:


> Went long Friday morning at 1.2174 for an awesome 209 pips




and i bought the open of the DAX on Friday....

CanOz


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## Boggo

CanOz said:


> and i bought the open of the DAX on Friday
> 
> CanOz




You too 

I also keep on buying RED at the bottom and exiting at the top before it turns down again a couple of days later


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## tech/a

Yeh I took the FTSE.
Gee I sympathize ---- only 200 pips.
Perhaps you'll consider indexes in future.


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## OGRooney

I am SO sorry for discussing my trade in the appropriate thread guys 
Maybe you should all go and discuss your successful trades in the appropriate forums?

and just to clarify, your all saying 1.2174 to 1.2383 in one day is not a good trade?


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## Boggo

OGRooney said:


> I am SO sorry for discussing my trade in the appropriate thread guys




All stirring aside OG, its easy for anyone to post up an "after the event" post and they will always attract attention at best or reflect on the credibility of the poster at worst.

If you want to display your trades then putting them up at the entry would probably not attract the same joviality and some of the more sensitive BS detectors on here are more likely to remain dormant.


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## tech/a

OGRooney said:


> I am SO sorry for discussing my trade in the appropriate thread guys
> Maybe you should all go and discuss your successful trades in the appropriate forums?
> 
> and just to clarify, your all saying 1.2174 to 1.2383 in one day is not a good trade?




Any profits a good profit
Particularly if it's yours.


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## OGRooney

Boggo said:


> All stirring aside OG, its easy for anyone to post up an "after the event" post and they will always attract attention at best or reflect on the credibility of the poster at worst.
> 
> If you want to display your trades then putting them up at the entry would probably not attract the same joviality and some of the more sensitive BS detectors on here are more likely to remain dormant.




Fair enough, I know it's two days late - just thought it was a noteworthy trade. Also, the previous discussion on EURUSD was a year old. I'll probably cop a loss on the open tomorrow but I guess we'll wait and see.

"

9121672012-08-03 02:25:15 
1970-01-01 00:00:00Buy0.01eurusdii1.21749
1.23842000020.93
"


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## Joules MM1

OGRooney said:


> ... your[e] all saying 1.2174 to 1.2383 in one day is....a good trade?




yep, it's a  good score......what's a good trade is defining the ideas that led to it so you can repeat, at least so you can weed out anything that's loose within the set-up....

it's easy to make money from a trade, the hard part is keeping it by trading more.....you dont have to be always refining, imho, you do need to define......


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## Boggo

OGRooney said:


> Fair enough, I know it's two days late - just thought it was a noteworthy trade. Also, the previous discussion on EURUSD was a year old. I'll probably cop a loss on the open tomorrow but I guess we'll wait and see.




Good onya, well done.
You can see where I (we) are coming from though, after a few years on here you too will have seen numerous rehashes of the same sort of after the event and bargain at these prices posts.


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## OGRooney

Thanks guys, definitely see where your all coming from, thanks for keeping the stirring to 1 or two posts :


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## Joules MM1

picture paints a thous......

http://ow.ly/i/QinA


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## OGRooney

GPBUSD Just broke 1.59, whilst EURUSD is respecting the August high...


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## cogs

*EURUSD*

Anyone trading the eurusd?

Interesting moves of late with initially a short squeeze, then a major eur bank starting the push and beyond the squeeze now with the USD creeping down where will the eur end up before rolling over again. With Drahgi committed to 'doing whatever it takes' there may be some legs in this up move.

Thoughts? Anyone else taken a temporary bull trade?


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: EURUSD*



cogs said:


> Anyone trading the eurusd?
> 
> Interesting moves of late with initially a short squeeze, then a major eur bank starting the push and beyond the squeeze now with the USD creeping down where will the eur end up before rolling over again. With Drahgi committed to 'doing whatever it takes' there may be some legs in this up move.
> 
> Thoughts? Anyone else taken a temporary bull trade?
> 
> View attachment 49243




Hi Cogs,

I trade thee E$ most days with the A$ and AYen off the 1 hour... I took the long on the close of the 10 oclock bar on friday night after the NFP... quick 20 pips.. should have kept it longer but you know!

I don't watch it on 4 hour shorter term stuff off the 1 hour


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*

Apoc,

I only use the 4hr, day and week to support my trade decision, and don't even use these rainbows to trade with, I use a completely different system and sometimes entering using M1 charts, problem is now days is the algo's working to shake retailers out, hence the noise. I read recently about one of the real reasons for volutility increase was brokers platforms (starting with FXCM) shifting to 5 digits which meant retail traders would hold for longer so more volutility was required to shake them out, and so coded into the algo's.

Anyway, back on the euro I think it will be a tough push up, inverse the usdchf retracing up to 100% in their trending directions with the ever present commercials in control.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: EURUSD*

Sellers out in force this Asian session.


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*

Bit of a nasty run that one, across the board. Closed my long up the top but was otherwise occupied to put the shorts on. Still doesn't look quite right.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: EURUSD*



cogs said:


> Bit of a nasty run that one, across the board. Closed my long up the top but was otherwise occupied to put the shorts on. Still doesn't look quite right.




E$ making a new weekly low...


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*

A few longs, hope this one has some legs in it, It's due for mid 30's, see how we go.


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*



cogs said:


> A few longs, hope this one has some legs in it, It's due for mid 30's, see how we go.
> 
> View attachment 49292




3050's that is.


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## TulipFX

*Re: EURUSD*

Did you take your positions on the way down, or the way up? Good luck ")


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*

Both actually.

I'm out already, doesn't look quite right, but no market does to me anymore.


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*



cogs said:


> Both actually.
> 
> I'm out already, doesn't look quite right, but no market does to me anymore.




Placed on 10th and 11th.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: EURUSD*

nice move down this morning... watched the 10am bar close.. didn't take the sell as the wick throw me a bit.. but one of those buy traps... eur signal was better aud imo.. see what the rest of the day brings


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## CanOz

*Re: EURUSD*

With a bit of time this morning i have applied my new Kinetick FXCM data to my Rancho Dinero volume profiling charts to see how the market structure looks on FX, the EURUSD pair. 

You can see that the peaks and valleys on the first chart with the blue composite is quite useful for identifying key levels. The peaks on the composite can be used as target areas where price has been easily accepted in the past. The valleys can be used as potential rejection points for reversals...areas where little or no volume has been done in the past.

The second chart is used to identify where the order flow is changing from a balance of buyers to sellers and vise versa. You can see where volume is increasing on a rally but yet buy volume is decreasing. This divergence can indicate that the rally is running out of steam.

I have used the trade plan to indicate some key levels for the next session....

Enjoy...

CanOz


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## OGRooney

*Re: EURUSD*

EURUSD has broken it's two month range... S & P Futures are dropping but holding range


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## cogs

*Re: EURUSD*



> This divergence can indicate that the rally is running out of steam



Run out of steam it has. Did you trade your indicators? they appear dependable med term.

To me it appears the USD appears to be artificially inflated to counter the cash printing, hence the eurusd fall. The USDCHF and the USDX with older day chart patterns should have rolled over by now, but this artificial activity seems to be showing up all the more obvious to me now days without indicators.

Although now it's becoming obvious the move is to close the shorts up to 82.250 and the USDCHF up to 0.97 before a well earned drop.




The inverse EURUSD all the way down to 1.2370 is all unfinished business. See if I can fully trade my thoughts which I often struggle to do, as you can see got in way too late here after closing shorts above.


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## CanOz

*Re: EURUSD*

I don't trade fx cogs. It's like trying to learn three markets at once for me. To many opens. 

Good luck!

CanOz


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## cogs

Seems very few do, on ASF's.


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## bailx

So what are the odds?


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## andrehughes

EUR/USD Weekly

The pair has developed a head and shoulders formation while signaling a potential completion at the right shoulder top of the correction for the previous  1.3710-1.2744 descendent wave and is holding below its 200 period MA while above its faster MA.
 Further downside is expected.
 Sell at the current price or on a close below the 1.3246 resistance with a stop loss at 1.3427 and a target at 1.2797.
 This provides a risk/reward ratio of 260/400.

EUR/USD Daily

 The pair has developed a large head and shoulders formation on the weekly and daily timeframe and is currently at the potential top of the right shoulder while holding below the 1.3238 resistance and above both its moving averages.
 Further downside is expected.
 Sell at the current price with a stop loss at 1.3329, a first target at 1.3016 near the ascendent trendline and a secondary target at 1.2880 near the next support.
 This provides a total risk/reward ratio of 127/320. 

EUR/USD H1

 The pair has advanced in a uptrend channel and is testing the 1.3263 resistance while the current price action in relation to the large head and shoulders formation on higher timeframes suggest that this can potentially be the top of the right shoulder.
 The price holds above both its moving averages and can develop a potential double top or range at the current level.
 Sell at the current price or a close below the 1.3263 level with a stop loss at 1.3313 and a target at 1.3075. 
 This provides a risk/reward ratio of 53/160.


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## forextrader168

*EURUSD Forecast by Htsang*

EURUSD Forecast for the week 20th January, 2014 


Daily Chart


After beginning the week a tad higher , we hit resistance around the 61.8% retrace and continued lower
We have found temporary support at a 61.8% retrace from NOV low to Dec Highs,
Price action shows very heavy pressure and looks like a potential to go lower 
Stronger support is lower at around 1.345 which is a confluence of a fib extension of 127.20 (reverse calculation of most recent swing retrace) & a 161.8 fib ext (of the Dec highs swing down to first week of Jan) and Also which is a Mid Monthly pivot from S1 to S2.
At this stage, trend traders would look for opportunity to short if Monday / Tuesday provides some retrace and Target 1.345 (As shown in 4 hourly Chart)


4 Hourly Chart

A very good potential short setup if a retrace to the 38.2/50/61.8 fib level with confirming price action candles to follow the short to find lower lows


Hourly Chart


Monday Asian session hourly candle had shown price action tried to break lower, but with another candle recovering (engulfing or a railway candlestick pattern) - this is showing market  finding support at this current stage and wants to retrace higher before continuing down 
On my hourly chart, I have only shown possible counter trade levels 
Outlook Trade opportunity
This week I have a few trade setups.

 Trend following Trades - 
1 - Please look at the 4h Chart and Daily Chart

 Counter Trend Trades
2 x Trade levels on the 1H Chart


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## dvejn

i think now is time go under 1,35. market test 2x this area and go up..... here is many stoploss.


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## havaiana

I like buying some euro volatility at the moment

Daily futures chart...


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## PipSafe

EUR/USD in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual upward trend that Buyers over price increases obtained the highest price of 1.39145. As it is obvious in the picture below, Price has passed the descending trend line made of 3 peak prices and with being above 5-day moving average warns about more ascending.Currently in long-term time frames such as monthly , weekly and daily price is above the 5-day moving average which implies consistent uptrend with potential of further rise in price during the next candles.

In daily time frame of previous Candle the ideal Shooting Star candlestick pattern is seen that has long higher shadow and cause the failure of Buyers in reaching to the higher price and possibility of formation of a peak price in this range.  By fixing of Shooting Star candlestick pattern’s warning (closing of descending candle at the end of the day) there is a possibility for descending of price.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern(also AB=CD Pattern) between the bottom price of 1.34788  and the top price of 1.39145 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern. The first warning for descending of the price in current condition is breaking of the supportive level of 1.38521.

    S1=1.38521
    S2=1.38235
    R1=1.39145
    R2=1.4000


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## havaiana

The Euro is currently on it's way to the moon for no apparent reason, very weird for Asia. Don't usually touch it during these hours, but tempted to have a nibble on the short side if we get a decent spike above 13950 soon


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## Wysiwyg

havaiana said:


> The Euro is currently on it's way to the moon for no apparent reason, very weird for Asia. Don't usually touch it during these hours, but tempted to have a nibble on the short side if we get a decent spike above 13950 soon



I think the high was 1.3966 so a short position would have seen you in a couple of hundred pips. I know I know, you didn't hang on did you. 

Anyway, I was posting about the Swiss CPI figure being inflationary and whether the EURUSD will continue on this upward trend. (looks like the pivot now)


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## PipSafe

EUR/USD during the recent days was in a  Downtrend that Sellers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.36727.Price by reaching to the Up Trendline (made of 2 bottom price) was not able to descend and break it in daily time frame and by creating the hammer candlestick pattern on this line shows recessing of sellers in reaching to the lower price and also the supportive level of 1.36413.

As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 1.38749 and the bottom price of 1.36727, there is an non-ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that with completion of the D point , there is a potential for ascending of price.Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the current bottom price and warns about the potential of ascending during the next candles.Generally until the price level of 1.36727 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.


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## PipSafe

EUR/USD has experienced a Uptrend during the recent month that the buyers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.39672.Right now price is above 5-day moving average in long term time frames such as monthly, weekly and daily that shows a consistent Uptrend in long period of time.Price during the downfall with reaching to the Up Trendline( with several bottom price) has stopped from more descend and has formed a bottom price in the level of 1.37744.

If price rises and buyers success one of the price targets would be alterant level of 1.39000(or red resistance level)According to the condition of this currency pair, there is no clear reason for descend. There is formation of recursive candle patterns or one descending candle in daily chart which is the least acceptable sign for price reformation.

    S1: 1.38512

    S2: 1.37900

    R1:1.39000

    R2: 1.39400


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## Stratanu

EURUSD’s fall last week left price action near-term stretched and has seen a small bounce off the lows. However, I view strength as corrective and, with a small top below small 1.3640 still in place, I stay bearish. Removal of "neckline" support at 1.3513/03 would aim at more important levels at 1.3487/77 – trendline support and the early year low. A break of this level is needed to compete a large “bear wedge” pattern, and now also a further top, warning of further significant weakness to 1.3248 initially.
Near-term resistance remains at 1.3613, above which can see a recovery back to 1.3640/42, and potentially 1.3665. 
*Trade Idea*: Sell strength to 1.3630/40, stop above 1.3665. Take profit at 1.3513/03.


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## PipSafe

EUR/USD during the recent Days could descend without reformation and record the Bottom price of 1.34374.Right now price in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly is under 5-day moving average which shows the downtrend. Currently The Price has passed the Up trendline made of 2 bottom prices and with being under 5-day moving average warns about more descending.
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 1.20496 and the top price of 1.39920 with none- ideal ratios of 50 to 127.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator in monthly and weekly time frames shows the possibility of descending of the price according to the next cycle.Sellers in midterm outlook try to get the supportive level of 1.34000 and for the next stage, the important level of 1.33500 and these two supportive levels are the possible targets of price downfall.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD dated 2014.07.25


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## Stratanu

The EUR/USD formed a positive day reversal while waiting for Yellen’s comment but not only, because also Draghi could support some volatility today! Only a daily closing tonight above 1,3290 will support a s/t bottom. The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative but recovering while those of the s/t charts are showing a mixed picture this morning suggesting some consolidation/ correction.  While above 1,3270 on an hourly closing we expect a 1,33 overshooting with the 200 hours line at 1,3343 the possible attraction. Already an hourly closing above 1,3285 at 7.00 CET will support an extension of the move up. We’re still long (1.3248 sm) since yesterday and put now a stop just in case a 1,3235 while waiting for a 1,3330 overshootin.


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## PipSafe

EUR/USD in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual Downward trend that Sellers under price decreases obtained the lowest price of 1.32363.Currently in long-term time frames such as monthly / weekly and daily price is under the 5-day moving average which implies consistent downtrend with potential of further decreases in price during the next candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Support  line (made of 3 bottom prices) has created the one bullish candle. Closing another of the bullish candle after this bottom  will confirm it and warns about ascending of price.

According to the formed movements in Daily time frame, between the top price of 1.39915 and bottom price of 1.32363 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern  with ideal  ratios of 38.2 and 224.2 that by completion of the D point in this pattern, there is warning for ascending of the price. RSI indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and according to the next cycle confirms the D point of this pattern and warns about the potential of ascending during the next candles( because of not being in the same direction with long term time frame it is not much valid). According to the current condition of price, the first warning for ascending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1.32959.


EUR/USD Technical Analysis dated 2014.08.22


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## Stratanu

The EUR/USD confirmed a weak daily, weekly and monthly closing on Friday supporting further weakness. 
The indicators of the m/t charts are all well negative supporting further weakness; we have however oversold conditions that could favour a rebound but again, we’re missing any signal suggesting an action. The indicators of the s/t charts are also negative with further bullish divergences confirming a negative tone.
daily chart are still well negative as well as those of the s/t ones supporting further weakness. 
Possible rebounds should find resistance at 1,3160 before the 200 hours line at 1,3209!!


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## Stratanu

The pair confirmed this morning a small reversed S_H_S formation in the hourly chart starting a small correction that should confirm a test of the 200 hours line at 1,3172!! The closing last night was also positive forming a positive day reversal. Only a daily closing tonight above 1,3138 will confirm a s/t bottom! The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative and oversold but those of the s/t charts are positive supporting a rebound. An hourly closing above 1,3145 will support the extension of the rebound!


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## Andyasu

*EURUSD*

EUR/USD




EUR/USD broke below the 1.2760 line on Thursday, but after finding support at 1.2693 (S1), the rate rebounded to test the 1.2760 bar as a resistance. On the daily chart, the pair is still printing lower peaks and lower troughs below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, thus the overall path remains to the downside. Hopefully the rate to challenge the low of the 13th of November 2012, at 1.2660 (S2). Dip below that hurdle could set the stage for larger bearish extensions, perhaps towards the psychological level of 1.2500 (S3).
Support: 1.2693 (S1), 1.2660 (S2), 1.2500 (S3)
Resistance: 1.2760 (R1), 1.2825 (R2), 1.2900 (R3)


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## Growth Aces

*EUR/USD: Get Short Ahead Of FOMC meeting*

GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions

AUD/USD: short at 0.8820, target 0.8660, stop-loss 0.8870

EUR/JPY: long at 135.20, target 137.70, stop-loss 136.10

EUR/CHF: long at 1.2085, target 1.2160, stop-loss 1.2045

GBP/JPY: long at 172.00, target 175.00, stop-loss 172.30



EUR/USD higher after better-than-expected ECB stress tests

(we are looking to get short at 1.2760)

    The European Central Bank announced on Sunday that 24 of the euro zone's 123 biggest banks failed the health checkat the end of last year with a total capital shortfall of EUR 24.6 bn. The bank added that most of them have since repaired their finances. Many of the lenders have raised capital since the end of 2013 and the total shortfall shrank to EUR 9.5 bn across 14 lenders by the end of September 2014. The euro zone banks now have two weeks to come up with plans for plugging any capital holes uncovered by the stress test within nine months.
    The ECB found the biggest problems in Italy, Cyprus and Greece. Italy faces the biggest challenge with nine of its banks falling short and two still needing to raise funds. Regulators said three Greek banks, three Cypriots, two from both Belgium and Slovenia, and one each from France, Germany, Austria, Ireland and Portugal had also missed the grade as of end-2013.
    German Ifo business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, fell to 103.2 from 104.7 the previous month. That was its weakest reading since December 2012. The median forecast amounted to 104.3. Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said he expected zero growth in the fourth quarter in Germany and that there were almost no bright spots for German industry at present.

    Let’s take a look at Ifo Business-Cycle Clock. We see that German economy is in the downswing phase. The chart suggests that entering the recession phase cannot be excluded in the first quarter. The recession will not be deep, however.
    The EUR/USD firmed on Monday after the European Central Bank's stress tests found smaller capital shortfalls among European banks than expected. The EUR depreciated slightlyafter the weaker-than-expected Ifo release.
    The main event this week for the EUR/USD is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Janet Yellen’s speech on Thursday. In our opinion the EUR/USD is likely to fall again after a slight recovery. We have placed our sell offer at 1.2760.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.2723 (10-dma), 1.2730 (200-hma), 1.2740 (daily high Oct 22)

Support: 1.2635 (low Oct 24), 1.2614 (low Oct 23), 1.2605 (low Oct 10)



USD/JPY: Looking to get long ahead of macro releases and BoJ’s meeting

(our buy offer is at 107.60)

    The USD/JPY traded up to 108.38 early Asia after the Wall Street rally on Friday and better-than-expected stress tests results in the Euro zone. The USD/JPY fell below the support at 107.78 (Friday’s low) during European session on profit taking.
    We are still bullish on the USD/JPY. We keep our long positions on crosses: EUR/JPY (we have raised the target and the stop-loss level) and GBP/JPY and are going to get long on the USD/JPY at 107.60.
    We have some important macroeconomic releases for Japan’s economy this week. Our forecast for retail sales (today GMT) is at the level of 0.4% yoy vs. the median forecast of 0.6% yoy. The release of industrial output data is scheduled for tomorrow and our estimate is slightly above the median forecast.
    The most important event will be probably the CPI reading on Thursday (late evening GMT) ahead of Friday’s (early morning GMT) BoJ’s meeting. We expect inflation to go slightly down vs. the previous month that is likely put some pressure on the BoJ to add further dovish hints into its statement.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 108.38 (hourly high Oct 27), 108.74 (high Oct 8), 109.08 (76.4% of 110.09-105.20)

Support: 107.11 (low Oct 23), 106.78 (low Oct 22), 106.26 (low Oct 21)


----------



## PipSafe

EUR/USD since 2014.05.08 was in a strong and without reformation downtrend that shows the certainty of the sellers in achieving the predetermined goals. Sellers during this downtrend were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.24393 that if it breaks, the price will find the potential in reaching to the other important supportive level of 1.24000.


As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 1.28866 and the bottom price of 1.24393, there is an ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 50 and 200 that with completion of the D point (also formation of Hammer pattern in D point), there is a potential for ascending of price. Generally according to the current condition and recent downtrend, until the supportive level of 1.24393 is preserved, price has the potential for ascending and reformation in this currency pair.


----------



## PipSafe

EUR/USD chart has experienced a strong descending trend during the recent months that could record the bottom price of 1.23573.According to the recent strong descending, price is in saturation sell area and there is the potential for ascending and price reformation.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a none harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 1.23573 and the top price of 1.28854 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.
Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the D point of this pattern by the next cycle and warns about the potential of ascending of the price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 1.23573 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending and reformation.


----------



## 787

Pipsafe - Do you think that -  the price level of 1.23573 has been preserved?
Thanks.



PipSafe said:


> EUR/USD chart has experienced a strong descending trend during the recent months that could record the bottom price of 1.23573.According to the recent strong descending, price is in saturation sell area and there is the potential for ascending and price reformation.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a none harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 1.23573 and the top price of 1.28854 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.
> Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the D point of this pattern by the next cycle and warns about the potential of ascending of the price during the next candles. Generally until the price level of 1.23573 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending and reformation.


----------



## PipSafe

787 said:


> Pipsafe - Do you think that -  the price level of 1.23573 has been preserved?
> Thanks.




Im sorry , i didint your post


----------



## PipSafe

EUR/USD during the recent month was in a strong downtrend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.23600.According to the formed price movements in the chart, there is a Gartley harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 1.23600 and top price of 1.26000 that warns about descending of the price.Currently according to the condition of this currency pair and its strong downtrend in recent months, price is in saturation sell area and warns about a slight reformation in weekly time frame.

Right now, the price is trying to the green supportive level to reform itself and then start its ascending movement, but because of the pressure of the selling and powerful descending trend(Down trendline + harmonic pattern), this try has not been successful yet. The least sign for ascending of price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in H4 and daily time frames.


----------



## PipSafe

EUR/USD chart has experienced a strong descending trend during the recent Days that could record the bottom price of 1.22486.as it is obvious in the picture below , price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the Up Trendline( made of 2 bottom prices) and has formed a bottom price.As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 1.25993 and the bottom price of 1.22486, there is an ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point (also formation of Crab pattern in CD wave), there is a potential for ascending of price.RSI indicator is in saturation Sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart in H4 time frame that confirms the price level of 1.22486 and warns changing price direction during the next candles.Generally until the price level of 1.22486 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.


----------



## Stratanu

Trading View: EURUSD confirmed a further weak closing on Friday making a new low in the daily as well as in the weekly chart supporting further weakness. The drop failed yet to confirm our m/t target that we expect to see very soon! We still expect the EURUSD to deep below 1,20 before end of the year with 1,1321 the possible target in the coming weeks!


----------



## PipSafe

EUR/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent weeks that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.46406 and According to the recent strong descending , price is in saturation sell area and there is the potential for ascending and price reformation.

Right now price by reaching the Support line of monthly pivot point (S3 MN) and also by creating a Bottom price(Hammer Pattern that need to be confirmed by a bullish candle) in daily time frame has been stopped from more descend.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 1.49340 and the current descend price with ideal ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.

RSI indicator in weekly and daily time frames is in saturation sell area and warns about ascending of price according to the next cycle during the next candles.The first important warning for ascending of the price according to the technical signs is breaking of the resistance level 1.16505.


----------



## notting

It's taken six years for the Europeans to make a meaningful move in response the the financial crises.
The big game changer is to be announced tonight.
The market is utterly devoid of any volatility in fact for the last 5 days the EUR/USD has done absolutely nothing.
We need a new crises to entertain us.


----------



## germantrader

notting said:


> We need a new crises to entertain us.




Oh man, this euro gets me nervous.
Seems like they force it down.

Greece now....

Gold....so so down
Oil    same

Markets ..up ...down

...so where do we go from here ...


----------



## StockTrader010

At the current pace, we'll see parity between EUR and USD in a couple of weeks.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical analysis of EUR/USD dated 27.02.2015

EUR/USD in recent weeks has been in a strong and consistent trend in the price movements which Sellers have been successful in reaching to the lowest price of 1.11830.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the round supportive level of 1.11000 and has created the hammer candlestick pattern.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic Gartley pattern between the bottom price of 1.11830 and the top price of 1.15339 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.

According to the descending potential in weekly time frame, price reformation of 4H time frame is not stable and by breaking the support level of d point, the ascending signal for 4H time frame will be invalid.RSI indicator in 4H time frame is in saturation sell area of the D point confirms AB=CD harmonic pattern and and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles. According to the current selling in the EUR/USD price the first warning for ascending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1.12460.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical analysis of EUR/USD dated 2015.03.09

EUR/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent months that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 1.08240.In 4H time frame, according to the recent movement price, there is a Morning star candlestick pattern (with 3 stars) that warns about formation of a bottom price in this area and ascending of the price.

According to the formed price movement, there is Crab harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 1.08240 and top price of 1.15324 that warns about changing price direction from the D point of this pattern.RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the harmonic D point and potential for ascending of the price.One of the important warnings for ascending of the price is formation of the candlestick pattern in daily time frame or closing of a ascending candle which prepares the field for ascending of the price .


----------



## revolver

PipSafe said:


> Technical analysis of EUR/USD dated 2015.03.09
> 
> EUR/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent months that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 1.08240.In 4H time frame, according to the recent movement price, there is a Morning star candlestick pattern (with 3 stars) that warns about formation of a bottom price in this area and ascending of the price.
> 
> According to the formed price movement, there is Crab harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 1.08240 and top price of 1.15324 that warns about changing price direction from the D point of this pattern.RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the harmonic D point and potential for ascending of the price.One of the important warnings for ascending of the price is formation of the candlestick pattern in daily time frame or closing of a ascending candle which prepares the field for ascending of the price .




thank you ! great point of view!


----------



## StockTrader010

StockTrader010 said:


> At the current pace, we'll see parity between EUR and USD in a couple of weeks.




EUR/USD isn't doing much the last couple of weeks. End of the trend?


----------



## PipSafe

EUR/USD Technical Analysis (2015.04.13)

EUR/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent days that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 1.04621. Currently price in monthly,weekly and daily time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a Bat Harmonic price pattern between the top price of 1.10502 and the bottom price of 1.05211 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern.RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about ascending of price during the next candles.

In H4 time frame in the previous candle, the h4 candle appeared as a Hammer candlestick pattern (to notice this candlestick pattern, there is a need to a ascending candle as confirmation) that shows the possibility for formation of a bottom price and ending down the descending of the price).The best sign of ending the descending trend is the formation of the bottom price in daily time frame and fixing of it.


----------



## StockTrader010

StockTrader010 said:


> EUR/USD isn't doing much the last couple of weeks. End of the trend?




EUR up a lot the past week. Thanks to weaker growth in the US. Most strategists still expect parity by the end of this year, though.


----------



## CentralCharts

Do you think EUR/USD could reach 1,15 before the end of the week?


----------



## Jason73

For sure. That's what I'm banking on.


----------



## notting

Odd that US$ is still showing strength whilst US earnings due to an overvalued USD are very average. EUR issues not an issue for the moment.
So you gotta see some EUR strength soon.

The Greek thing showed a ray of light with regard to the EURO group  politicians in making their ability to implement unpopular reforms -  'Blame the Euro' and make the reforms.  'It's not my fault!' 'Look, I voted against it!' 
Vote for me.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Odd that US$ is still showing strength whilst US earnings due to an overvalued USD are very average. EUR issues not an issue for the moment.
> So you gotta see some EUR strength soon.
> 
> The Greek thing showed a ray of light with regard to the EURO group  politicians in making their ability to implement unpopular reforms -  'Blame the Euro' and make the reforms.  'It's not my fault!' 'Look, I voted against it!'
> Vote for me.




I think the US dollar will challenge recent highs, whilst the Euro tests the lows. The story, now that Greece is temporarily off the books, is back to QE for the EU, interest rate rise for the US.


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> I think the US dollar will challenge recent highs, whilst the Euro tests the lows. The story, now that Greece is temporarily off the books, is back to QE for the EU, interest rate rise for the US.




Remembering that Draghi put a cap on how much QE they will be doing, unlike what become the Feds open ended program followed by taper tantrums.  Sept rate rise and EURO printing gotta be well and truly over priced in.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> I think the US dollar will challenge recent highs, whilst the Euro tests the lows. The story, now that Greece is temporarily off the books, is back to QE for the EU, interest rate rise for the US.




A piece of supporting evidence for the possibility of USD strength from here:

For the last week or maybe even a tiny bit longer, liquidity providers have been pretty much dead flat (neither net long nor short) on EURUSD.

But USD positioning over the last 24 has had a moderate sized shift, with liquidity providers going (5%) net short EURUSD, and also  decreasing their *huge* USDCHF and USDJPY net short positions.

As measured by Dukascopy SWFX Sentiment.

https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/

Changes in interest rate differentials always are a huge driving force in the FX markets, in my experience.


----------



## Stratanu

The pair confirmed a positive closing on Friday above the top of the previous session but well off the highs of the day, managing however to remain above the opening. The weekly closing was mixed while forming a new inside week with 1,1345 – 1,1090 the levels to follow in the coming sessions!
The indicators of the daily chart remain below the line while those of the weekly one are still well posoitive for now. The indicators of the s/t charts are in positive territory this morning suggesting another possible test on the upside for a retest of Friday’s top! Only a move below the 200 hours line, now found at 1,1200 will postpone further strength causing a test of the support line at 1,1150, now key level!!


----------



## Stratanu

The pair confirmed a strong closing on Friday supporting a retest of the 1,1460 area, now the attraction. The weekly closing was also strong above the tops of the past few sessions. Further strength is therefore possible if not even probable!
The indicators of the daily chart are now well positive as well as those of the weekly one supporting further strength. The indicators of the s/t charts are also well positive with bearish divergences still supporting a positive tone. While above 1,1345 on an hourly closing expect further direct strength. My prefer however waiting for a decent correction to buy but only close to the 200 hours line, now found at 1,1242.


----------



## Stratanu

*EURUSD* failed last night to confirm the previous days’ positive day reversal suggesting further weakness, especially while below the 200 days line, now found at 1,1115!!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative for now while those of the s/t charts are instead still showing a mixed picture suggesting further consolidation/ correction. Further bullish divergences are still supporting a negative tone. Still only an hourly closing above 1,1080 will postpone further weakness favouring a higher retracement with the 200 hours line at 1,1209 the possible attraction!!
A break below 1,1000 will instead resume the decline suggesting a s/t target at 1,0802!!
I stay on the sideline for now and wait the FOMC meetings’ report.


----------



## Stratanu

The EURUSD plunged lower after the FEDs’ comments breaking below a further support line, now resistance at 1.0955. if last nights’ closing will further confirmed in the coming few sessions expect a return toward 1,05!!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative for now as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further weakness. Bullish divergences even in the 4h chart are supporting a negative tone. Possible rebounds should find resistance at 1,0990 while the 200 hours line is found only at 1,1164!!


----------



## Stratanu

The EURUSD confirmed a mixed closing last night managing however to remain above the 1,10 level. The pair is still interior the negative outside day with 1,1110 – 1,0885 still the levels to follow. Only a daily closing above 1,1110 will support higher levels.
However, while below the 200 days line at 1,1111 the pair will remain under pressure!! 
The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative for now while those of the s/t charts are instead still showing a mixed picture supporting further consolidation/ correction. Only an hourly closing above 1,1075 will favour a higher retracement suggesting a 1,11 overshooting!!
I stay still on the sideline waiting for higher levels to sell!!


----------



## Wysiwyg

450 pip day bar so far. Must be some sort of record.


----------



## CanOz

My IG Markets Eur/Usd is quoting much lower than the currency futures...is this a normal thing?


----------



## Andrea ForexMart

*Fundamental Analysis: February 15*

A down fall of stock markets is an aftermath of concerns about the global economic outlook which also caused the US dollar to be under pressure last Friday. The demand for the yen and the euro heightened. And because of the celebration of Chinese New Year, the Chinese market was closed. 

The Japanese Finance Minister enlightened the investors that the fleet growth of Japanese yen could be a factor of the regulator's mediation. If there's a need to restrict the yen's growth, the bank will take all the necessary measures to make this happen. The exchange rate has been lately demonstrating quite sharp inconsistency that vary from the BoJ's financial policy, the Finance Minister stated.

The Gross Domestic Product of the Eurozone (q/) stayed at the same level of 0.3%, as claimed by the Eurostat. 

On Friday, the US retail sales forecast for January was issued. The report was at 0.1%, the index occurred at 0.2%. In the initial estimate, the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February was anticipated to increase by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index occurred at 90.7, much lesser than it was expected.


----------



## nazemi

Hi.do you know any group in telegram messenger or whatsup or android about forex?


----------



## CanOz

Fade the morning trend anyone?


----------



## Lone Wolf

CanOz said:


> Fade the morning trend anyone?




You would need to make sure you could actually keep trading it through that three year period in the middle where it did noting. Although as I understand it, you're trading a portfolio of different strategies. That would make it much easier to handle. You might not mind if one strategy goes sideways for a while, so long as it's not actually losing you money.

Nice work though, I've seen that sexy DAX curve in the other thread too. Looks like it's all coming together for you. Great to see.


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> You would need to make sure you could actually keep trading it through that three year period in the middle where it did noting. Although as I understand it, you're trading a portfolio of different strategies. That would make it much easier to handle. You might not mind if one strategy goes sideways for a while, so long as it's not actually losing you money.
> 
> Nice work though, I've seen that sexy DAX curve in the other thread too. Looks like it's all coming together for you. Great to see.




Thanks wolf, that euro system is unfiltered and as quant mentioned to me today, a volatility filter a larger time frame would likely help. These recent tests are from strategies just back from my coder, so very early stages of development.

Yeah, lots of work on lots of old ideas. It's worth it though to come up with something that you can't just optimise to death...!


----------



## M54

could anyone forecast please


----------



## Triathlete

M54 said:


> could anyone forecast please



www.babypips.com


----------



## cogs

I have been watching the strength of this euro move to see if they are going to push up and fill the gap.

Seems Morgan Stanley are now forecasting 1.18 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-the-cycle-here-s-morgan-stanley-s-playbook


----------



## cogs

I feel it's only a matter of time.

The grind down of the USD seems to be bouncing the EUR off the 1.15 ceiling. HK session has just attempted to put in a top

Thought I might add, this pair has unfinished business down at 1.08.


----------



## cogs

Be interesting to see if this breaks. It appears most pairs have settled in short term middle range waiting on Trumps trade deal with china, not that I believe news moves FX, but fundamentals short term should show up on this pair also.
If the EUR breaks to the up side first target will be hidden gap fill, then it will be targeting 1.16 IMO, as there are orders up there still waiting to be closed. It is easy to see now the HK asian top yesterday was false, with their orders yet to be closed.
This pair has been a pig to trade IMO (again), but I stand ready to pounce either way.


----------



## cogs

Hidden gap filled, another created and heading for 1.16 target with new buyers coming in, and maybe, just maybe the completion of hidden gap fill 1.16180 - 1.16375.
At least it's out of the ugly range, still no incentive for trading either way.


----------



## Kryzz

cogs said:


> Hidden gap filled, another created and heading for 1.16 target with new buyers coming in, and maybe, just maybe the completion of hidden gap fill 1.16180 - 1.16375.
> At least it's out of the ugly range, still no incentive for trading either way.




Been waiting for that range to be taken out, finally.


----------



## cogs

My thoughts for tonight and/or early next week.
After the Asian short squeeze up today we may see more hidden gap retrace down then onward and upward to close out positions from London US long squeeze.


----------



## cogs

First leg played out as expected. New hidden gap opened up for the fade upward to begin early next week. 

But who bloody knows what Brexit is going to do and how it will affect this pair. The Asian session seems to well situated for big fades at the moment.

Still open positions to be closed out up to 1.15680.
I still think this pair is filling positions medium term for a larger move down.


----------



## Fxortrader

EURUSD POTENTIALS SHORT-TERM DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO STRENGTHEN US DOLLARS

The movement of EURUSD has a chance to move down in the short term as the dollar strengthens after the release of a number of US economic data that looks optimistic.

Today the focus of investors will be on a number of manufacturing and service index reports starting from France at 15:15 WIB, Germany at 15:30 WIB and Euro zone at 16:00 WIB for indications of the economic health of the main economies in the bloc.

Support levels: 1.1340 - 1.1300 - 1.1240
Resistance level: 1.1400 - 1.1440 - 1.1500


----------



## Fxortrader

EURUSD FURTHER Down TO 1.1301 USAI NATURAL GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI CONTRACT THERE


The EURUSD currency pair fell sharply after the German flash manufacturing PMI data in March which was far below estimates while marking a three-month consecutive contraction.

Data recently released showed the March German flash manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7, while predictions said at 48 and data in the previous month were 47.6. The contraction in the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone's largest economy has started since January, when it was at 49.9. In December last year German manufacturing was still experiencing expansion, precisely at number 51.5. Number 50 is a limit to determine whether manufacturing activity experiences expansion or contraction.

This data confirms that the slowdown in the Eurozone is increasingly becoming and as a result of the US-China trade war. This economic slowdown was feared by the European Central Bank (ECB) so that the ECB issued a soft loan policy to banks to be channeled to the public.

EURUSD dropped sharply from 1.1386 to 1.1295 in the last hour before then turning to 1.1301, or down 0.61 percent, equivalent to 70 pips from the close of the New York session last night.


----------



## cogs

Few bids come today, still untradable IMO until a bounce back up to 12.5 or 13.3 ish. long term target for me is still 1.075 ish.




With USDCHF about to hit some resistance (as much as I hate to use that word) I recon this should get sorted with NFP end of week.


----------



## cogs

So it made 12.5 and IMO usually they set the price at some 'mid-point' prior to larger attempts at price movement, which is exactly what's taking place here, clearly visible on the USDCHF also.

If they can get this up to 13.3 before NFE release in over 24hrs we should see another top put in, highly unlikely IMO, so then I can put on another pair of shorts. It does look like they are attempting to cap this around mid to high 12's so they can push either way.

One option ruled out which means a 12.5 stretch or lookout 13.3ish here we come. if US data is a shocker its possible to 13.75 could be on the cards. I'm still not in. If I had a fat account I would have a short on already.

For those who give a toss about my views, I definitely don't follow the notion that bad news equal price drop, good news equal price jump, learnt a long time ago that's bollocks, and news is just a catalyst.


----------



## cogs

And the winner is ...., except I recon we will see more continuation down now, so added the green extension. They have really put a cap on this down to 1.113 ish.

IMO, USDCHF is now really going to test just above parity 1.002ish tonight regardless of the news. I am going to expect more noise than direct movement. They are going to need some buying volume to send it through. Maybe the china deal later will do this??


----------



## cogs

Glad I'm still not in this, one of the most heavily manipulated pairs. Looks like all sessions are working on another pump n dump, maybe working the Euro news in 36hrs? I was a little quick to dismiss option 2.
Anticipating mid to high 13's before putting on the shorts.


----------



## cogs

Got one out of four correct. Still not at the top now, actually a bit of a fake Bear trap under way. I still hold high 13's for entering shorts. Worst thing is the best entry in coming days/weeks will be midnight Aust time during EUR/USD volume, as per normal.


----------



## cogs

So here we are again, still with long term target of 1.08. Will they make an additional move tonight? 




Last nights dip I have confidence was to ensure any upward movement tonight generated out of events, is some what muted.

Great opportunity for an aggressive up spike before continuing down, while only mid point on the weekly ave range.


----------



## derangedlawyer

Any good way to go long EUR with ASX ETFs? 
The only currency swap on it seems to be offered by AUDS (aud/usd).


----------



## Cam019

Into my first FOREX trade today. Long EURUSD @ 1.18211. The liquidity here is so much nicer than those festering cankers!


----------



## ducati916

Long AUD/JPY @ 77.12

jog on
duc


----------



## Cam019

Holy cup and handle on the 30 minute.


----------



## ducati916

Close that trade out:




jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

Cam019 said:


> Into my first FOREX trade today. Long EURUSD @ 1.18211. The liquidity here is so much nicer than those festering cankers!
> 
> View attachment 108993





Just joined you at 1.8313 long EUR/USD

jog on
duc


----------



## Cam019

ducati916 said:


> Just joined you at 1.8313 long EUR/USD
> 
> jog on
> duc



Added at 1.18370.


----------



## rnr

ducati916 said:


> Just joined you at 1.8313 long EUR/USD
> 
> jog on
> duc




Hey duc,
I think you got ripped off as @Cam019 just added at $1.18370 and his 1st buy was at $1.18211.


----------



## Cam019

Alright, out of the trade now. Hit my profit target.

Bit of a run down on how I go about looking for charts setting up and what I was looking for during the trade. I start with a top down analysis and mark out key levels on the 1M, 1W and 1D charts. Then I move down to the 4H, 2H and 1H and do the same. Then I like to jump down the 30 and 15 minute charts for key support and resistance levels. I tried trading off even lower time frames - but I don't think it was for me. I really enjoyed the 15 minute charts.

My thought was that I liked that price was hovering around the 38.2 fib retracement. This is what first caught my interest.

First entry was at 0.18211 for 1 micro lot (yep, trading micro lots to start because I have never traded currencies, or with leverage for that matter). Entry was because of the bullish candle and the inside candle three and four candles back - bought the break of the high. Stop at 1.18058.

Second entry was at 1.18372 for 1 micro lot. Bought the break of the high wick to the left of the second entry. All stops moved to below the prior swing low.

Third entry was at 1.18560 for 5 micro lots. Bought the break of the high two candles before. All stops were at break even by this point.

Profit target was the 161.8 fib extension (1.18837). As soon as I saw the candle take off after my final entry, I stupidly removed all my profit targets hoping for a bigger move - then I realised I was hoping and I started to close all my positions at or above my profit target level.

1st micro lot exit @ 1.18837
2nd micro lot exit @ 1.18840
Final 5 micro lots exit @ 1.18892

7.45% profit.


----------



## frugal.rock

Cam019 said:


> (yep, trading micro lots to start because I have never traded currencies, or with leverage for that matter)



Thanks for the write up. 
Am interested, what made you start and what broker is the go?
Cheers.


----------



## Cam019

frugal.rock said:


> Thanks for the write up.
> Am interested, what made you start and what broker is the go?
> Cheers.



Hey @frugal.rock, no worries at all.

Liquidity and availability of the markets. I wanted to trade intra day but ASX liquidity for that type of trading is horrible in my opinion. I wanted to be able to trade intra day even if I wasn't available to be at my computer until the afternoon or night. I wanted to be able to trade long and short. I like that I can have and use leverage. You can build a small account much easier when you only have to put up about $21 in margin to control $7,000 worth of currency CFD's (obviously it depends on how much leverage you choose to use). So much to like, I think.

As for brokers, I went with Pepperstones Razor account using the MT4 platform on my phone. Simple and easy to use. I only use MT4 for execution, though. I use Trading View on my computer to chart.


----------



## ducati916

ducati916 said:


> Just joined you at 1.8313 long EUR/USD
> 
> jog on
> duc





Long again @ 1.18213

jog on
duc


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## frugal.rock

Thank you kindly @Cam019 
Food for thought as I remember Mr Rob @rnr had also mentioned  FX trading.


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## Cam019

Long 5 mini lots of EUR/USD @ 1.18351


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## e_abrams

It started consolidating above 1.1700. Do you think it will break out below that level?


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## e_abrams

Well, it definitely broke out below that level and then some. It's very bearish and I think we may see it drop below 1.1600 too.


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## e_abrams

It found some support at 1.1550 but considering how bearish it is I think that after a brief retracement it may continue falling next week.


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## Cam019

EU long entry this morning. Target is 6.03 R:R.


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## Cam019

@Roller_1 save me clogging up your thread. Here's another example.

On the 5 minute - Why am I letting it come all the way back near my stop?






Because on the 60 minute I can see that it's coming back to mitigate the 'down move before the up move' on this timeframe in anticipation of it going higher.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> @Roller_1 save me clogging up your thread. Here's another example.
> 
> On the 5 minute - Why am I letting it come all the way back near my stop?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Because on the 60 minute I can see that it's coming back to mitigate the 'down move before the up move' on this timeframe in anticipation of it going higher.



Thanks Cam,

So whereabouts is your stop In this? Is it below the low of that last red 60 minute candle that you have marked up on the left?


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## Cam019

Roller_1 said:


> Thanks Cam,
> 
> So whereabouts is your stop In this? Is it below the low of that last red 60 minute candle that you have marked up on the left?




1.13071. You can see it on the 15 minute.


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> 1.13071. You can see it on the 15 minute.




Thnks mate


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## Cam019

I’m short the Eurodollar here from 1.00385


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