# S32 - South32 Limited



## UMike (18 May 2015)

Opens today

Forecasts of it's debut price range between A$2.00 and A$3.00 a share. 
The top end would value the company at A$16 billion, making it Australia's biggest new listing in 15 years and the biggest mining listing since commodities giant Glencore Plc in 2011.

BHP is about $2.00 down so it would appear that S32 would open near the bottom of that forcast range.


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## Miner (18 May 2015)

UMike said:


> Opens today
> 
> Forecasts of it's debut price range between A$2.00 and A$3.00 a share.
> The top end would value the company at A$16 billion, making it Australia's biggest new listing in 15 years and the biggest mining listing since commodities giant Glencore Plc in 2011.
> ...




It is finished at $2.05.
I am a bit perplexed to the semantics.
south means it goes down.
Did BHPB deliberately use it so that investor gets warned of the southwards direction ?
Just kidding


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## SilverRanger (18 May 2015)

Miner said:


> It is finished at $2.05.
> I am a bit perplexed to the semantics.
> south means it goes down.
> Did BHPB deliberately use it so that investor gets warned of the southwards direction ?
> Just kidding




I thought it's a new infant formula  

According to DB, S32 is a 55% aluminium company (and 15% manganese), maybe AWC can finally have a friend


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## MrBurns (19 May 2015)

Love the spin on this stock, broker saying they are quality assets HA that's why BHP got rid of them.


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## skc (19 May 2015)

MrBurns said:


> Love the spin on this stock, broker saying they are quality assets HA that's why BHP got rid of them.




BHP didn't get rid of them. It was spun out. Big difference.


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## MrBurns (19 May 2015)

skc said:


> BHP didn't get rid of them. It was spun out. Big difference.




That's not what I heard


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## skc (19 May 2015)

MrBurns said:


> That's not what I heard




May be you should obtain information from more reliable sources. 



Miner said:


> It is finished at $2.05.
> I am a bit perplexed to the semantics.
> south means it goes down.
> Did BHPB deliberately use it so that investor gets warned of the southwards direction ?
> Just kidding




This would become really funny if it sinks toward 32c.


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## MrBurns (19 May 2015)

skc said:


> May be you should obtain information from more reliable sources.




Like you for instance


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## notting (19 May 2015)

skc said:


> BHP didn't get rid of them. It was spun out. Big difference.




Which allows the BHP share holders to choose to sell the none core assets themselves and perhaps reinvest in the core - BHP,  or retain holdings in both.

Makes BHP slightly less diversified so it's a considered move.  There seems to be a general chorus from people who have observed this kind of move before that the spin outs tend to do quite well over time, better than the core!
So far that theme is going ok, up 10% today. I took a bite yesterday as they went to the bottom of the most pessimistic range.


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## Wysiwyg (15 September 2015)

Anyone know why this ASX 200 company made a 7.5% drop today after looking like a share price recovery was happening?


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## UMike (16 September 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Anyone know why this ASX 200 company made a 7.5% drop today after looking like a share price recovery was happening?



Commodity Prices and general market sentiment are going to be the main drivers of the price for the unforseeable future.


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## Miner (17 September 2015)

S32 alongwith commodity price effect also suffers from management and total operation philosophy explaining why BHPB got rid of it as hot potato. The shareholders who got it at $2 unfortunately got ripped off.


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## Klogg (17 September 2015)

Miner said:


> S32 alongwith commodity price effect also suffers from management and total operation philosophy explaining why BHPB got rid of it as hot potato. The shareholders who got it at $2 unfortunately got ripped off.




It's probably worthwhile understanding the psychology of spin-offs, in order to set expectations correctly. Have a look at Joel Greenblatt's "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius", great explanation.


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## Wysiwyg (19 September 2015)

Klogg said:


> It's probably worthwhile *understanding the psychology of spin-offs*, in order to set expectations correctly. Have a look at Joel Greenblatt's "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius", great explanation.



Thanks for thoughts all.

Wondering if a brief reasoning for spin-off psychology could be revealed considering there are different reasons behind every spin-off? I believe the demerged assets are high quality. In their commodity overview they use the words "low cost" and "largest" frequently. If I am wrong on my current buy in price I will drop it but will rebuy at or near bottom.


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## Wysiwyg (23 September 2015)

Seppos anti dumping investigation notice today. It seems TEMCO exceeded the 11.93% limit for their product. Some large trades go through with this stock but a below average volume day for an above average price drop.
Personal interest has dissolved now. This commodities scenario gets worse.


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## Toyota Lexcen (22 September 2016)

Amazing run on the share price,

Yet companies suffer double digit losses on stable results


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## peter2 (11 September 2018)

Another company that doesn't get regular comments in spite of its price performance +100% /2 years. 
The chart looks promising and the recent corrective move looks complete. The initial target of 4.00 doesn't look enough as price can get volatile, but any swing higher may not stop there.


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## Porper (11 September 2018)

peter2 said:


> Another company that doesn't get regular comments in spite of its price performance +100% /2 years.
> The chart looks promising and the recent corrective move looks complete. The initial target of 4.00 doesn't look enough as price can get volatile, but any swing higher may not stop there.
> 
> View attachment 89280




Yes, strange it doesn't get more interest. You shouldn't have favorites, as a pattern is a pattern etc. But, I'm not a robot and I do like trading S32 as it just keeps moving up following shallow corrections.

Weekly chart wave equality target = $6.34. Typical wave-3 target = $8.27. Longer term trade of course.


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## peter2 (11 September 2018)

We shouldn't have fav's but we're only human and I'll admit that S32 isn't one of mine. 

It looks like S32 is within a larger running flat correction. Wave 'c' might be a truncated wave which is bullish or a much larger triangle might be forming with the level of resistance at 4.00. If that happens I'll be all over the next weekly HL just before the next break-out.


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## Porper (11 September 2018)

peter2 said:


> We shouldn't have fav's but we're only human and I'll admit that S32 isn't one of mine.
> 
> It looks like S32 is within a larger running flat correction. Wave 'c' might be a truncated wave which is bullish or a much larger triangle might be forming with the level of resistance at 4.00. If that happens I'll be all over the next weekly HL just before the next break-out.




Yep, if wave-(c) is locked in it's a nice example of a bullish running flat as you say. Even if it develops into a running triangle it's extremely bullish...just take a while longer for the impulsive price action to commence. Either way, next move should be up.


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## aus_trader (11 September 2018)

I've had S32 in my portfolio previously. Stayed out as the volatility increased at the start of the year. But looks like it's settling down again and starting to behave like it's old trending self...

Thanks for pointing out the technical picture of S32 guys, I'll be watching it with interest as to where it's heading.


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## tinhat (11 September 2018)

Thanks for the TA all. This one came onto my radar this reporting season but I have not considered it yet. Glad to see the TA is positive.


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## kid hustlr (4 October 2018)

You guys aren't bad!!!


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## barney (6 October 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> You guys aren't bad!!!




Agree …. Well called to the gentlemen above


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## peter2 (17 December 2018)

Since my last comments price has fallen from the top of the range to the bottom. The daily chart is presenting a promising opportunity as price bounces off support (3.00). The RR is acceptable if price goes back to the old highs above 4.00. If price closes below 3.00 I'm *not* interested.


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## barney (17 December 2018)

peter2 said:


> If price closes below 3.00 I'm *not* interested.




Agree Pete …. It will start to look sad below there!


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## Trav. (5 September 2019)

I entered yesterday looking for a short term trade. Buy $2.63

Bounced nicely of low $2.36 on the 26/8 and looking for ~ $3

2019 Full Year Financial Results Presentation for those who like numbers

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190822/pdf/447qbxp5s81qn8.pdf


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## finicky (4 May 2020)

fwiw I'm getting more tempted by *S32* which closed on its intraday low today.
I already hold 8,000, mostly from the BHP spin-off but am thinking of nibbling here.
The price has already met my crude measured target from the rounding top with a 'neckline' at $3
I like the (very) long term prospects of Hermosa and also the Trilogy jv. Meanwhile S32 is a cash positive big company in difficult times.
South Africa thermal coal is a downer and also I gather there are problems with S32's Manganese assets but S32 is trading well below book value and I see it as worth ~2x book value. Admittedly it's a mystery to me as to why it's trading so low, so maybe I am underestimating its problems - but long term I tend not to think so.
So anyway, I should be getting a few more if it dips towards 1.50. Depends a bit on other opportunities competing for my limited cash.

S32 4 Year Wkly


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## Trav. (28 May 2020)

I entered S32 today after the pullback signal on the 25/5 and funds coming available so paid a few cents more than the original signal but will watch to if we can break the $2.02 mark and run up to +$2.15.


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## Miner (28 May 2020)

finicky said:


> fwiw I'm getting more tempted by *S32* which closed on its intraday low today.
> I already hold 8,000, mostly from the BHP spin-off but am thinking of nibbling here.
> The price has already met my crude measured target from the rounding top with a 'neckline' at $3
> I like the (very) long term prospects of Hermosa and also the Trilogy jv. Meanwhile S32 is a cash positive big company in difficult times.
> ...



S 32 is having some structural problem with management structure right from mid level up.
Decision makings are poor. Good people have left. It is running on momentum. Short term success but long term disaster. I met few ex South 32 guys who remained from BHP and got disillusioned and rejoined BHP.
Unfortunately though hold having bought a low price with a net positive.


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## finicky (28 May 2020)

Yes I've changed my mind about S32. Partly because I will be trying to build up some cash after fy20 ends - will be selling stocks in July/Aug, but not S32 at these prices. I believe there'll be another market crash. When I do start buying again, S32 is not high on my wishlist, maybe later for Hermosa in a silver bull market. Thanks for the inside goss.


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## sptrawler (28 May 2020)

I tossed up between S32 and AWC, chose AWC because of management, am bleeding money ATM but still happy with the choice.


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## Trav. (2 June 2020)

Trav. said:


> if we can break the $2.02 mark and run up to +$2.15




Closed at $2.02 today so hopefully we can head on up to the next level.


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## Trav. (3 June 2020)

Exited this morning @ $2.155 for a nice little profit after S32 jumped out of the blocks

Another rabbit for table


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## Trav. (14 June 2020)

S32 gapped down on Friday to finish at $2.10 so I will be watching to see if it tests support @ $2.02 and then possibly re-enter for another trade as it was looking surprisingly strong having reached a high of $2.34 on the 9/6.


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## finicky (18 October 2020)

The main reason I do look to South32 for a long term investment is its stellar development path: the Hermosa project in Arizona and its 50/50 jv with Trilogy metals in the Ambler project, Alaska. No cash will flow from either for maybe another 4-5 years but obviously the market will start to account for this well beforehand - and what commodity prices, including Au, Ag, will it be figuring in by then?

*Hermosa in Arizona has two deposits*, Taylor and Clark, which are still being drilled out but the resources so far are great, especially if you're a silver bug - there's over *400 million ozs of silver* resource:

*Taylor deposit*, from S32 website:

The Taylor deposit is a greenfield development option that has a reported resource of 155 million tonnes, averaging 3.39% zinc, 3.67% lead and 69 g/t silver. The resource remains open at depth and laterally, with multiple targets to be tested as we continue our extensive surface drilling program.

*Clark deposit*, 12 May 2020 ann:

"South32 is pleased to report for the first time a Mineral Resource estimate for the Clark Deposit which forms part of its 100% owned Hermosa project located in Arizona, USA

The Clark Mineral Resource estimate is reported in accordance with the JORC Code (2012) at 55 million tonnes, averaging 2.31% zinc (Zn), 9.08% manganese (Mn) and 78g/t silver (Ag)."

*The Ambler jv in Alaska* also has two deposits: Arctic and Bornite.

*Arctic deposit*:

The main mineral here is copper but jv partner, Trilogy, has a pre-feas out for Arctic that is saying that all in costs (including credits for other metals) should be US 98c/lb of payable Copper. But get this, *they are factoring in only US $1300/oz for gold *and $18/oz for silver over the project's lifetime.

From the recent Arctic pre-feas:
"Average annual payable production projected to be more than 155 million pounds of copper, 192 million pounds of zinc, 32 million pounds of lead, 32,000 ounces of gold and 3.4 million ounces of silver for life of mine" - 12 years LOM.





						Arctic Deposit
					






					trilogymetals.com
				




*Bornite deposit*, from jv Partner Trilogy's presentation:

Copper 6 billion lbs, Cobalt 77 million lbs


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## Dona Ferentes (18 October 2020)

The big miners' dash for more climate-friendly commodities will make it harder for mid-tier miners to muscle their way into deals or snap up assets, South32 CEO Graham Kerr has warned.


> "We all like those commodities that are more green-facing, that actually have more application in that energy transformation - which means there’s greater degrees of competition," Mr Kerr told a conference in London. In emerging markets, South32 would be competing for those projects, assets or companies against China. And in developed countries, "you’re probably competing against some of the bigger miners who probably have their bigger balance sheet and are inclined to spend more money".




Mr Kerr said the company was coming to the end of its first five-year plan to reduce carbon emissions and was now "in the next phase of thinking about our next carbon targets and climate change action plan", which would include _*scope 3*_ (downstream emissions by customers or clients). The push to be more carbon-conscious was "getting more intense, but there is no substitution for metallurgical coal today in the steelmaking process". Still, a scope 3 emission-reduction plan should in theory mean working with steelmakers to wean them off coking coal.


> "We’re 3 per cent of the metallurgical coal market, so our ability to actually influence steelmakers is probably not as large as some of our competitors ... who are very big producers," Mr Kerr said. "But ... I think we can continue to work in some of the different associations and with some of the customer groups about investing in some of the technology that we think will help with scope 3 emissions as well."


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## divs4ever (21 July 2021)

WOWEE , really quiet on this thread 

 ( i hold S32 )

 any views on S32 today  since the quarterly is out today 

am only started glancing at it  but so far so good
and with many commodity prices  higher than usual is this part of the mining cycle 

 take care this is a crazy volatile market 

 DYOR


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## JohnDe (24 December 2021)

I came to the party late but very happy so far 

From my readings, the next year is going to be mostly positive.

Anyone have any other news?


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## Miner (24 December 2021)

JohnDe said:


> I came to the party late but very happy so far
> 
> From my readings, the next year is going to be mostly positive.
> 
> ...



Enjoy the team collaboration at ASF and Merry Christmas @JohnDe .
I am cautiously optimistic for 2022. Corona is a gamble.
I am now 60  pc cash today  from 38 pc cash . Could be a fatal error . Time will tell me in 2022.


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## divs4ever (24 December 2021)

Miner said:


> Enjoy the team collaboration at ASF and Merry Christmas @JohnDe .
> I am cautiously optimistic for 2022. Corona is a gamble.
> I am now 60  pc cash today  from 38 pc cash . Could be a fatal error . Time will tell me in 2022.



   i have a differing view and strategy  .. apart from wishing  EVERYBODY a Merry Christmas  , on that i absolutely agree 

 i would rather my existing cash reserves was wisely invested  ,  but special divs and M&A  have decided to boost the cash reserves , anyway 

 i see a mess that stumbles on , but maybe i can hook a silver lining or several 

 good luck everybody


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## finicky (24 December 2021)

Looks quite likely that S32 will end the year at an all time monthly high with a big white monthly candle. There was a warning sign a couple of months back with the long upper wick but chart still looking strong. At some point I expect this stock to paricipate in a massive down move with the rest of the market but this is one I will be holding onto for the reflation and S32's long term prospects. If I were wanting to hold onto my current gains though I would be checking out the weekly and monthly charts each week/month as the price is not clear yet of the past top.
Based on past results I see the price as still a bit below fair value by my crude valuation approach does not benefit from any deep knowledge of the business. And S32 spent a year falling well below intrinsic value so it could happen again.

All Data Monthly


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## Miner (24 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i have a differing view and strategy  .. apart from wishing  EVERYBODY a Merry Christmas  , on that i absolutely agree
> 
> i would rather my existing cash reserves was wisely invested  ,  but special divs and M&A  have decided to boost the cash reserves , anyway
> 
> ...



Mate @divs4ever 
Point taken.
You are an astute investor and I always recognize that your strategy will be  always stand out than gambling strategies (or no strategies) like me .
Have a good and safe break my friend with a lovely Chrissy.
Regards


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## divs4ever (24 December 2021)

i just realized i needed   special strategies  to rush the outcome

 for the record in my younger days  i used to gamble a lot in various arenas ( using unusual strategies ) in those days i had more opportunities to recover from wipe-outs  , now i don't 

 BTW i still gamble i bought   CWN ( since sold at a profit ) TAH  , TTS ( swallowed up by TAH ) and DNA ( a serial stumbler )   

 and urge everyone  to uniquely adapt their strategies  where they see a need to  ( say , to resist inflation ) or they see a vein of silver to exploit ( safely )

 back to S32  i see they have resisted  the speculated acquisitions when they demerged  , time will tell if that is ultimately a good thing ( compared to hasty expansion )

 is S32 playing the mining investment  cycle  as i thought ( incorrectly ) should play out


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## rederob (24 December 2021)

finicky said:


> Looks quite likely that S32 will end the year at an all time monthly high with a big white monthly candle. There was a warning sign a couple of months back with the long upper wick but chart still looking strong. At some point I expect this stock to paricipate in a massive down move with the rest of the market but this is one I will be holding onto for the reflation and S32's long term prospects. If I were wanting to hold onto my current gains though I would be checking out the weekly and monthly charts each week/month as the price is not clear yet of the past top.
> Based on past results I see the price as still a bit below fair value by my crude valuation approach does not benefit from any deep knowledge of the business. And S32 spent a year falling well below intrinsic value so it could happen again.
> 
> All Data Monthly
> View attachment 134727



Nearing long term resistance:




Most of S32's commodities are likely to continue to maintain or improve their prices into 2022 as I see things unfolding.
Divesting thermal coal was also a good move, while their coking coal assets should perform strongly next year.
The past year saw shipping costs thwart S32's profits and I anticipate this will ameliorate in 2022.
Cap the above off with their ongoing share buyback and S32 could well cruise through next year well above $4.


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## mullokintyre (24 January 2022)

S32 quarterly out shows how much inflationary pressures are affecting OZ companies.
The company had  higher prices for both coal and Aluminium, which resulted in higher operating margins for those products.
This was offset by higher  material prices, higher  labour costs as well as  scarce labour ,enegy costs as well as a number of adverse weather costs contributed to a higher than expected  operating unit costs overall.
Mick


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## sptrawler (24 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> S32 quarterly out shows how much inflationary pressures are affecting OZ companies.
> The company had  higher prices for both coal and Aluminium, which resulted in higher operating margins for those products.
> This was offset by higher  material prices, higher  labour costs as well as  scarce labour ,enegy costs as well as a number of adverse weather costs contributed to a higher than expected  operating unit costs overall.
> Mick



Apparently there is no wages growth, so that must be BS.


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## JohnDe (24 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> S32 quarterly out shows how much inflationary pressures are affecting OZ companies.
> The company had  higher prices for both coal and Aluminium, which resulted in higher operating margins for those products.
> This was offset by higher  material prices, higher  labour costs as well as  scarce labour ,enegy costs as well as a number of adverse weather costs contributed to a higher than expected  operating unit costs overall.
> Mick




Do you have a link to that info? I couldn't find any reference to S32 claiming that inflation is their issue.

What I found out this morning is -


The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact our operations and supply chains in different ways, across our global portfolio. We have seen an increase in case numbers and workforce restrictions in many of the jurisdictions in which we operate, impacting labour availability. 
Port congestion and tight global freight conditions continue to impact our supply chains, slowing the movement of inventory, most notably for our aluminium smelters in Southern Africa. While the resultant build in aluminium inventory during the December 2021 half year is expected to persist in the near term, we have and continue to establish alternative shipping solutions and points of dispatch to minimise the impact. We expect the working capital build to unwind once we realise the full benefit of our initiatives, and port congestion and general freight tightness is alleviated.
As well as releasing info that they produced less Aluminium, Silver, Lead and Coal

QUARTERLY REPORT
DECEMBER 2021

Listen to this from the 3:07 minute mark -


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## mullokintyre (24 January 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Do you have a link to that info? I couldn't find any reference to S32 claiming that inflation is their issue.
> 
> What I found out this morning is -
> 
> ...




The quote was from the  Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor analyst.
I am assuming that they attended a an analysts briefing, but have sent them off an email asking where they got the information from.
I will relay their response should I get one.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (24 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> The quote was from the  Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor analyst.
> I am assuming that they attended a an analysts briefing, but have sent them off an email asking where they got the information from.
> I will relay their response should I get one.
> Mick



Much to my surprise, I had a call from Lincoln  and there response was  as follows:
If you read the  text underneath each of the operations, there is a consistent  staement about increases in costs.
For instance , Under Worsley Aluminia, 


> elevated caustic soda prices and freight rates are expected to result in Operating unit costs for the December 2021 half year being approximately 5% above our FY22 guidance (US$241/t). We expect higher caustic soda prices to persist in the June 2022 half year further impacting the refinery’s Operating unit costs.



The next entry under Brazil Alumina,


> the impact of elevated raw material input prices, in combination with the already realised volume impact of the bauxite unloader outage, is expected to result in Operating unit costs for the December 2021 half year being approximately 30% higher than the June 2021 half year (US$201/t).



under the Hillside Aluminium entry 


> elevated raw material input costs and the smelter’s energy price linkage to the  South Africa Producer Price Index are expected to result in an increase in Operating unit costs in the  December 2021 half year (June 2021 half year: US$1,722/t) of approximately 10%.



The next entry is Mozal Aluminium


> elevated raw material input costs are expected to result in an increase in  Operating unit costs in the December 2021 half year (June 2021 half year: US$1,818/t) of approximately 10%.  As you read through them,



Under the entry for Illawarra metallurgical coal


> Lower December 2021 half year production and sales volumes, and higher price-linked royalties arising from the significant increase in prices year to date, are expected to result in our Operating unit costs for the  December 2021 half year being approximately 20% above our FY22 guidance (US$101/t). Updated FY22 Operating unit cost guidance will be provided in our financial results announcement for the December 2021 half year.



I could go and cut and past the rest, but we get the picture. 
The cost increases vary from entity to entity, so I guess they will not be able to put a company wide value on the cost increases till the EOY report.
Their costs have gone up,  which is what usually happens when you get inflation.
Mick


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## Smurf1976 (24 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Much to my surprise, I had a call from Lincoln  and there response was  as follows:
> 
> "the smelter’s energy price linkage to the South Africa Producer Price Index"




That's the sort of thing I've referred to in the Inflation thread.

Where a price goes up not because of underlying factors but simply because it's directly linked to and determined by PPI or CPI.

There are many such arrangements particularly with things such as energy, water supply, wages and so on and this won't be the only company affected.


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## qldfrog (24 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Much to my surprise, I had a call from Lincoln  and there response was  as follows:
> If you read the  text underneath each of the operations, there is a consistent  staement about increases in costs.
> For instance , Under Worsley Aluminia,
> 
> ...



I like the
higher price-linked royalties arising from the significant increase in prices year to date
Never happy ..ohh we sold higher so  our royalties increases...and this was not expected?


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## InsvestoBoy (24 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's the sort of thing I've referred to in the Inflation thread.
> 
> Where a price goes up not because of underlying factors but simply because it's directly linked to and determined by PPI or CPI.
> 
> There are many such arrangements particularly with things such as energy, water supply, wages and so on and this won't be the only company affected.




Get ready for it to go in the other direction then.

YoY comparisons will be increasingly hard to beat going forward. If the level of PPI just stays as high as it is right now, in a year the YoY PPI reading will be 0%. If PPI goes down even a little bit from where it is now, expect negative YoY PPI prints. etc.


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## divs4ever (24 January 2022)

am looking for somewhere  around $2.50  for a top-up price 

 i won't be holding my breath waiting for that


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## qldfrog (24 January 2022)

Do not take me wrong, i like s32.not right price yet but looking


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## divs4ever (24 January 2022)

i am probably  spoiled with S32 , i got some via the BHP demerger  and bought some extra later ( @ $2.63 )

 but to me  they still seem to be forming a long term strategy 

 am not rushing to buy or sell here ( currently )


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## Sean K (17 February 2022)

Half Yearly

Net cash almost a $billion! Huh?

Too many slides on ESG for my liking, but I suppose that's the only way to get finance these days.

Only just bought into some copper with Sierra Gorda, could do with some more of that. They are exploring for a lot of copper I suppose.

Maybe they should buy OZL to round it out a bit more. 

And, take CTM for some more Nickel, thanks.

This is on my short list when there's a proper correction, but it just hasn't really happened. Perhaps in the $3 zone was a buy.


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## finicky (17 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> They are exploring for a lot of copper I suppose



Masses of copper in the pipeline (and silver too at their 100% Hermoza project)
For copper check out the Ambler jv with Trilogy Metals. Both Ambler deposits have copper but the Bornite deposit has 6 billion lbs so far, the major part is u/g at almost 3% copper.

Held


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## sptrawler (17 February 2022)

This is the problem when shares slip off your watch list, you lose track of them, tossed up and bought AWC instead a few years ago for dividend.


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## divs4ever (17 February 2022)

not for me, 

  BHP lobbed several hundred  shares in my direction  and i added a few extra cheap  ( $2.63 )

 but probably should have kept AWC as well  but i thought rising energy costs  would stress AWC

 ( i don't always make the best choice , in hindsight )


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## rederob (28 February 2022)

Post #45 has the longer term chart, and below you will see that S32 has hit another record high today:





Russia is a big player in the metals sector and nickel is one of its major outputs.
If the financial squeeze from Russia's Ukranian fiasco puts the brakes on Norilsk's production then S32 will be a beneficiary.


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## Sean K (2 March 2022)

This has been running like a champion since breaking up in Aug 21 with a couple of healthy corrections. In the right commodities at the moment. Likely to continue.


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## rederob (3 March 2022)

S32 has a price gap from $4.66 to $4.68 which will get filled when it's price comes off the boil some time into the future.
Right now it's riding a lot of commodity price upside so has a lot more upward price momentum to see out:





In terms of S32's key minerals output, their current (averaged over past 2 months) price increases over their 2021 second half average prices are:

Alumina        - about 5% higher, but volatile
Aluminium   - over 15% higher and rising steadily
Coking Coal  - about 30% higher but bouncing
Manganese  - about 10% higher and rising, but unpredictably
Nickel            - about 10% higher and rising sharply
Silver             - about the same but price is rising steadily
Zinc               - about 25% higher and rising firmly


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## JohnDe (25 June 2022)

Vanguard Group purchased on the dip 



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02534285-76CRMECV5QFAJQ5STPHH0H2C8Q/pdf?access_token=00071ZECEF7My1MOr2dAdMjWs0r6


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## sptrawler (25 June 2022)

I think I wiil have a nibble on Monday, if they don't skyrocket.
I owned them on the spinout from BHP, but sold years ago when their suite of resources were out of vogue.


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## divs4ever (26 June 2022)

i kept mine and added a few to even up the holding  , has been a bit of a puzzler on their way forward  .

 i was half-expecting them  to pick up a mid-tier asset or two as a bolt-on  ( say something similar to EVN's spoke and hub strategy )

 but i suppose most of the management came out of BHP some i suppose slow and deliberate planning  was what i should have anticipated , am not so happy to see the prolonged buy-back of shares , surely they could deploy that cash more effectively


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## finicky (26 June 2022)

I've been tempted recently on 'valuation' grounds but S32 needs to sell at a discount because of some of the toilet bowl countries it operates in.
Also the chart gives me pause because S32 had a ripper of an accelerating rally since March 2020 (1.60 - 5.40) and there might be  more to be undone. It has made a weely lower high and lower low and can't see anything to excite on the chart.


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## divs4ever (26 June 2022)

finicky said:


> I've been tempted recently on 'valuation' grounds but S32 needs to sell at a discount because of some of the toilet bowl countries it operates in.
> Also the chart gives me pause because S32 had a ripper of an accelerating rally since March 2020 (1.60 - 5.40) and there might be  more to be undone. It has made a weely lower high and lower low and can't see anything to excite on the chart.



 i agree about the geopolitical risk  ( and the discount needed that would inspire me to buy extra ) , but here i am uncomfortably exposed to Queensland  , and would suggest geopolitical risk might rise in other areas ( like say Canada )

 politics might easily  condemn us to a spiral to the bottom ( especially indebted nations who would see miners  as a pile of money to be plundered )


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## finicky (6 July 2022)

Gapped down again today and finished on its low. Wasn't alone of course - BHP, WDS.
Target down to around $3 wouldn't surprise me, despite oversold daily momentum indicators and apparent value.

Held

Daily


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## Sean K (6 July 2022)

finicky said:


> Gapped down again today and finished on its low. Wasn't alone of course - BHP, WDS.
> Target down to around $3 wouldn't surprise me, despite oversold daily momentum indicators and apparent value.
> 
> Held
> ...




I'm not sure TA works in this environment. So much panic. I'm taking a punt on longer term fundamentals.


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## rcw1 (23 August 2022)

Good morning, 
Been reported today, South32 abandons  $US700m extension of its Illawarra metallurgical coal operations.  The company has been quoted saying the work to prolong the life of its Dendrobium underground mine does not make financial sense.  Moreover, it intends to work on ways to extend the life of its other Illawarra underground mine, Appin, until 2039.

rcw1 holding.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
Rcw


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## Sean K (25 August 2022)

There's some massive improvements YoY here. Probably why it ran so hard from $3 to over $5 before correcting.

Has started to recover well after that sell-off in June and bouncing off the $3.40 low.

Not sure if we've just had a bear market rally though. Still cautious.

But, they're developing quite a pot of cash there. Have to do something with it.


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## rcw1 (25 August 2022)

Good morning
Some announcements today (25/08/22)


The Board has resolved to pay a final dividend of US 14.0 cents per share (fully-franked) for the year ended 30 June 2022, and a special dividend of US 3.0 cents per share (fully-franked).
The record date for determining entitlements to dividends is 16 September 2022; payment date is 13 October 2022.

Have a very nice day, today.
Edit remove link didn’t work  

Kind regards
rcw1


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## divs4ever (25 August 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> Some announcements today (25/08/22)
> 
> 
> ...



 that sounds pretty yummy ( even if they were in $AUS ) to me ,   as my av. price is a whisker under $1  , after that nice  divestment by BHP  and i added  a few later in a dip  , S32  has been a nice addition to the portfolio 

 i am guessing their coal exposure was a big help in the profits   , which probably means  smaller divs in coming years


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## rcw1 (25 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that sounds pretty yummy ( even if they were in $AUS ) to me ,   as my av. price is a whisker under $1  , after that nice  divestment by BHP  and i added  a few later in a dip  , S32  has been a nice addition to the portfolio
> 
> i am guessing their coal exposure was a big help in the profits   , which probably means  smaller divs in coming years



Nice 👍 one divs4ever
rcw1 fast trades this stock.   Butttt certainly has great merit attached to one’s portfolio, subjected to own due diligence  

Kind regards 
rcw1


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## divs4ever (25 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that sounds pretty yummy ( even if they were in $AUS ) to me ,   as my av. price is a whisker under $1  , after that nice  divestment by BHP  and i added  a few later in a dip  , S32  has been a nice addition to the portfolio
> 
> i am guessing their coal exposure was a big help in the profits   , which probably means  smaller divs in coming years



nope ! got it wrong  they fumbled coal  

 i guess they will have to do better in the coming year


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## divs4ever (25 August 2022)

i was hoping they would be a little more adventurous than BHP ( they aren't compelled to chase world class assets )

 sort of an established player with growth  potential 

lucky for me i  took TWO stabs  at that strategy  .. the other was MIN ( av. SP $13.92 and the investment cash rescued  , thanks MIN management  , you are a winner in my book )


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## rcw1 (25 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i was hoping they would be a little more adventurous than BHP ( they aren't compelled to chase world class assets )
> 
> sort of an established player with growth  potential
> 
> lucky for me i  took TWO stabs  at that strategy  .. the other was MIN ( av. SP $13.92 and the investment cash rescued  , thanks MIN management  , you are a winner in my book )



Dabbled in BHP but not MIN.  Coulddda Woulddda buttttt Shouldda... ha ha ha ha Never mind, cannot win em all, all the time as much as we try.


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## divs4ever (25 August 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Dabbled in BHP but not MIN.  Coulddda Woulddda buttttt Shouldda... ha ha ha ha Never mind, cannot win em all, all the time as much as we try.



 i normally  dabble and nibble  rather than 'back up a truck ' ( or even bring a suitcase )

 and am willing to go back for more if i see a good opportunity ( to top up )



and so have ( mostly ) small holdings in many  companies 

 sure i only win small and medium ( in $values ) but i also avoid crippling losses  if a large company implodes  ( Arrium  could have been NASTY if i hadn't been taking small gains off the table  , for example )

 and YES brokerage   is a big chunk of my costs , but that was my choice


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## rcw1 (25 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i normally  dabble and nibble  rather than 'back up a truck ' ( or even bring a suitcase )
> 
> and am willing to go back for more if i see a good opportunity ( to top up )
> 
> ...



Good evening divs4ever,
Small and mediums wins accumulatively make for bigger gains and increased confidence. Excellent methodology.
rcw1 has large holdings, however mitigates risk by converting paper money into fiat money expeditiously. 
Have a good day tomorrow.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## divs4ever (25 August 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good evening divs4ever,
> Small and mediums wins accumulatively make for bigger gains and increased confidence. Excellent methodology.
> rcw1 has large holdings, however mitigates risk by converting paper money into fiat money expeditiously.
> Have a good day tomorrow.
> ...



 good for me ( since i still need to be carefully  aggressive ,) may be sad for the general market 

 the XJO hovering around 7000  mid reporting season   , doesn't look like a good sign to me   ( but i hope i am wrong )

 am mainly looking for trickles of income  from sources with low investment cash risk 

 the estate i inherited ( the portfolio probably started in the 1970's  )  taught me many companies disappear  , both household names and  minnows  , now sure some get swallowed in a take-over  , but a take-over is no guarantee of continued income  either 

 and a wad of cash is little value if we have run-away inflation ( for very long )

 the key here is investing time-frame  if the investor is young  even nasty lessons  can be a winner in the long run (  called experience )

 good luck for the rest of the month  ( and beyond )


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## finicky (26 August 2022)

Still looks cheap, even going by its non exceptional years. For the patient S32 has a great project coming on line in later years - Hermosa.
Price seems to be hesitating around the $4.30 level of past failed support.
Company is saying that it expects higher production to balance out higher costs this year.

South32 shares jump as miner sets special dividend on profit boost​Reuters | August 24, 2022

South32 Ltd flagged a boost in production across its global operations in the current year and pledged to pay a special dividend after annual profit jumped more than fivefold, sending the Australian miner’s shares up 5% on Thursday.





South32, which was spun off from BHP in 2015, declared a special dividend of 3 cents per share and a final dividend of 14 cents, up from 3.5 cents a year earlier, taking shareholder returns to a record $1.3 billion for fiscal 2022.




The company forecasts its copper equivalent production to increase 14% in fiscal 2023, and said it has been able to contain cost inflation across its operations through the year.
The miner has also resolved to further expand its capital management programme by $156 million to $2.3 billion, leaving $250 million to be returned to shareholders by Sept. 1, 2023.
Western sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine have squeezed an already-tight supply of commodities such as coking coal, pushing up prices of materials that South32 mines.
That helped the company overcome the hit from a labour shortage and torrential rains in the key producing area of New South Wales that had also impacted the operations of BHP Group and Rio Tinto.
“We are well-positioned to navigate the current economic uncertainty … while our ongoing focus on cost management and an expected 14% increase in production will mitigate industry-wide cost inflation,” said Chief Executive Officer Graham Kerr.

Shares of the Australian diversified miner scaled to their highest level since June 16.
“The company has provided very positive forward guidance with commentary from the CEO suggesting that the company is well-positioned to navigate the current economic uncertainty,” CMC Markets analyst Azeem Sheriff said.
“The company has a very strong net cash position of $538 million for additional capital expenditure and also expects group production to rise in FY23, which will mitigate any inflation headwinds reducing any material effects on their future expenses,” Sheriff said.

The company provided a capital expenditure forecast of $1.2 billion for fiscal 2023.
The world’s biggest producer of manganese said its underlying earnings for the year ended June 30 rose to $2.60 billion, from $489 million a year ago. The figure came in higher than the $2.55 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv data.

On a statutory basis, the miner posted a profit after tax of $2.67 billion, versus a loss of $195 million last year.
Currently, South32 is in pay-related negotiations with its Appin coal mine workers following their threat to stage a partial strike for a week, the miner said on Wednesday.








						South32 shares jump as miner sets special dividend on profit boost
					

The world's biggest producer of manganese said its underlying earnings for the year ended June 30 came in at $2.6 billion, compared with $489 million a year ago.




					www.mining.com
				




Daily


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## Craton (26 August 2022)

FWIW. Just checked my holding and appears that there's still no DRP available. Oh well, the cash divvy will be put to good use. 
Caviar anyone?
Oh, and none of that northern hemisphere stuff either, gimme Yarra Valley goodness! So good on oysters au naturel, yummo...


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## finicky (26 August 2022)

Undecided about the immediate direction of the chart but scratched the itch and bid for a 1,000 more @ 4.26.
I have only browsed the results announcements so don't really know what I'm doing.
When you look past the the exceptional fy22 at past years, while it is still good value imo, it is not *extremely* cheap - I think a ROE of 10% and a book multiple of x2 is fair enough and conservative to work on but just my method. They do seem to be guiding to a strong fy23 also. The upcoming 20c dividend is attractive.

5 minute chart


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## notting (26 August 2022)

Looks like it's rolling over!
Certainly going to test the 200D at the very least.
20c div doesn't mean much if it falls 100c


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## Tyre Kicker (26 August 2022)

Well, it’ll be a bargain if it drops $1 from here.


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## qldfrog (26 August 2022)

Tyre Kicker said:


> Well, it’ll be a bargain if it drops $1 from here.



Well i think i still have a buy pending around 3.30..so yeap😊


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## qldfrog (27 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Well i think i still have a buy pending around 3.30..so yeap😊



After last night on the nyse and coming to September, i leave the buy order as is,just to remind me to buy at that level or below next month


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## finicky (27 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> $3.30 - just to remind me to buy at that level or below next month



You're dreaming frog - straight to the pool room with that buy contract should it eventuate.


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## Telamelo (27 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> After last night on the nyse and coming to September, i leave the buy order as is,just to remind me to buy at that level or below next month



Good luck frog! as similarly am hoping to score more BHP around $35 or lower lol


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## qldfrog (27 August 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Good luck frog! as similarly am hoping to score more BHP around $35 or lower lol



Same here, i hate BHP and tend to follow the opposite of their management decision with warranty of long term success but i have a small order pending very low


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## notting (27 August 2022)

BHP at 35 is in the bag for sure in the next 6 months!
I'll give 80% chance of 29!
Why? Think about how much IO and copper has gone into this unprecedented waist.
The only positive is that the buildings are all so badly constructed with corner cutting everywhere it will all have to be done again in 70 years or so....Unfortunately that's not going to help the short, medium or even longer term cycle!


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## Craton (29 August 2022)

finicky said:


> Undecided about the immediate direction of the chart but scratched the itch and bid for a 1,000 more @ 4.26.
> I have only browsed the results announcements so don't really know what I'm doing.
> When you look past the the exceptional fy22 at past years, while it is still good value imo, it is not *extremely* cheap - I think a ROE of 10% and a book multiple of x2 is fair enough and conservative to work on but just my method. They do seem to be guiding to a strong fy23 also. The upcoming 20c dividend is attractive.



G'day @finicky - With the S32 SP and the broader market being down today, curious to know, was your order filled or amended?
All good if you don't provide/offer an answer. 

Screen pic taken about 10mins ago.


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## qldfrog (29 August 2022)

Craton said:


> G'day @finicky - With the S32 SP and the broader market being down today, curious to know, was your order filled or amended?
> All good if you don't provide/offer an answer.
> 
> Screen pic taken about 10mins ago.
> ...



In my view, still a long way to go down


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## finicky (29 August 2022)

Hi @Craton, yeah filled 1,000 @ 4.26 malhereusement. Tempted to add today but quenched the urge with a flutter on KWR.


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## Craton (29 August 2022)

finicky said:


> Hi @Craton, yeah filled 1,000 @ 4.26 malhereusement. Tempted to add today but quenched the urge with a flutter on KWR.



Thanks for the reply, onya. Bloody hindsight eh?


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## Craton (29 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> In my view, still a long way to go down



With the bear lurking, I'd say that may be indicative of most stocks.


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## qldfrog (29 August 2022)

D







Craton said:


> With the bear lurking, I'd say that may be indicative of most stocks.



Don't take me wrong, i like s32 and will reenter, but now is not the time farrrrr from it.
Give me a 25% crash and i will be reinvested 25% of cash. Then 50% fall and second half of cash ,rest at 75% down from top if we reach that level 
I will start reinvesting with commodities, Energy, food
And i keep some pm producers...


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

Good morning
Published today in News Corp Media:

South32 cut to Hold: Morningstar
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Telamelo (3 September 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> Published today in News Corp Media:
> 
> South32 cut to Hold: Morningstar
> ...



US market's finished well down again overnight.. suggests another big red day come Monday on our ASX


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## Telamelo (3 September 2022)

Earlier calls suggesting $3.50 target or possibly lower looking a chance in September


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## sptrawler (3 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Earlier calls suggesting $3.50 target or possibly lower looking a chance in September



Then we have the October effect, which usually causes some turmoil.


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## rcw1 (5 September 2022)

Good evening
Latest news on S32 management and union wage talks re:  Hillside aluminium smelter in KwaZulu-Natal province.









						Numsa says wage talks at South32's Hillside aluminium smelter deadlocked - Miningmx
					

WAGE talks between South32 and the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) had deadlocked, the union said over the weekend. The dispute concerns Numsa members employed at the Hillside aluminium smelter in KwaZulu-Natal province. Numsa said it disputed South32’s proposal that it...




					www.miningmx.com
				




Kind regards
rcw1


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## finicky (15 September 2022)

Went ex today
Bought 1,000 @ 4.26 Aug 25
Current price 4.05
Add back dividend of 0.245
Effectively worth  4.295 + franking credit
Winning
Judge's decision final
Result not subject to revision

Held


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## dyna (15 September 2022)

All that North American investment is a sad reflection on what this country will become if we don't start making things here, again.

Can't blame the company for doing  it , though. Annual report clearly blames ( energy ) cost imposition, here. "Green" power to make "Green " steel  is just not a thing yet , anywhere in the world. Could be decades away, too.


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## sptrawler (15 September 2022)

dyna said:


> All that North American investment is a sad reflection on what this country will become if we don't start making things here, again.
> 
> Can't blame the company for doing  it , though. Annual report clearly blames ( energy ) cost imposition, here. "Green" power to make "Green " steel  is just not a thing yet , anywhere in the world. Could be decades away, too.



The good thing is, we don't make much steel at the moment, so we are in at the ground floor.🤣
We are just a global renewable powerhouse, waiting to explode out of the blocks.🥳


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## Telamelo (17 September 2022)




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## Telamelo (17 September 2022)




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## Sean K (7 December 2022)

Looks like it might have been good buying down around support across $3.50, now stopped at resistance on the way back up. Completely tied up with the overall metals commodity mix and how they're travelling. No lithium or rare earth investments yet. Maybe following BHPs lead in thinking lithium is not a through the cycles prospect, which might be a mistake.


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