# Melbourne Cup 2010



## pan (31 October 2010)

This years Melbourne Cup. Who's gunna win it??

Also looking into the trifecta got a little formula I found.

Here is Punterwoman's Formula for finding the Melbourne Cup trifecta based on 20 years of Melbourne Cup statistics and punting experience -

Include any runner who:


    * ran on the Saturday before the Cup, regardless of where they finished.
    * is an international visitor with Group form carrying 57kgs or less.
    * ran a place in this years Caulfield Cup and/or last years Melbourne Cup.
    * has won over 2400m or more in the last six months (since May) AND is carrying 4kgs or more under what they would be carrying at Weight For Age.


But leave out any runner who:


    * is carrying 59kgs or more.
    * ran in a previous Melbourne Cup in any year but finished more than 4 lengths behind the winner.
    * has failed to run a place in two or more starts at 3200m or beyond.
    * is aged over 7 years.

any thoughts?


----------



## Slipperz (31 October 2010)

So you think has the form and a good barrier draw. Not sure about shocking from the outside barrier....might have to go wide all the way round carrying 57K vs say descarado carrying 54 or even my lucky day. 

Good luck to all!!


----------



## Logique (31 October 2010)

Hi Pan, not a bad set of criteria.

It eliminates 9yro Zipping.  All the others I'm looking at meet the criteria. So You Think looks a special, and good barrier draw 3. But crummy short odds. 
At this stage I'll have two box trifs:  So You Think with Americain and Malucky Day, and another sustituting Descarado for Malucky Day.

Agree a tough ask for Shocking from barrier 24.


----------



## pan (31 October 2010)

well there are a number of horses which get the cut if you use the formula. I'm down to around 10 at the moment. Interested to see what other people come up with.


----------



## So_Cynical (31 October 2010)

pan said:


> This years Melbourne Cup. Who's gunna win it??
> 
> Also looking into the trifecta got a little formula I found.
> 
> ...




8 and 9 year olds have won...statisticly not many but still class horses over 7 years old do tend to win and run well in staying races.

Also quiet a few winners have not started on the Saturday before, again i know the stats favour a run on the Saturday before but its not that important as in it will never stop a really good horse from winning (pretty sure Kingston Rule) didn't run on the Saturday before.


----------



## tech/a (31 October 2010)

Pick 10 likely candidates
Box them in a Trifecta or Pick 4
Put $1---- or whatever on your punt 
Enjoy.


----------



## Knobby22 (31 October 2010)

I like Americain and Profound Beauty.

The field has a lot of depth. I narrowed it down to 12 using similar parameters to you Tech/a. Tough year.


----------



## pan (1 November 2010)

anyone had a crack at the formula yet?


----------



## Calliope (1 November 2010)

My secret formula narrows it down to Monaco Consul. The downside is that I haven't picked a cup winner for years.


----------



## son of baglimit (1 November 2010)

if there was a formula that worked, the developer would be filthy rich & never share it, hence...............

yes it is a tough year, and even with a wet track, which normally would cut down the chances, its still tough.

apart from the fav SYT, and taking a tri with him on top, with many placegetters, i do give a good chance to manighar (5th caulfield cup) & profound beauty (2nd last start Irish StLeger to one time fav sans frontiere). 

only blow away as much as youd blow on a spec trade LOL.


----------



## medicowallet (1 November 2010)

Knobby22 said:


> I like Americain and Profound Beauty.
> 
> The field has a lot of depth. I narrowed it down to 12 using similar parameters to you Tech/a. Tough year.




Yeah, I think profound beauty has a chance too.


----------



## robusta (1 November 2010)

Holberg or Precedence


----------



## pedalofogus (1 November 2010)

Maluckyday is my pick for tomorrow.  

And i will be boxing up about 8 of them in a trifecta just to keep it interesting.


----------



## white_crane (1 November 2010)

18...that's what the voices in my head are telling me


----------



## Tink (2 November 2010)

I picked 
16. Profound Beauty
21. Once were wild
10. Holberg

Kids picked
24. Maluckyday
20. Precedence
8. Americain
1. Shocking

No fun in picking the same, Good Luck All
Giddy Up


----------



## explod (2 November 2010)

My wife is still thinking about it, 

I have picked Harris Tweed.  Should be good in the mud, 4yo. ran 5th last year.  2nd in the Caulfield Cup.   For a place for me, but paying 20/1 on the nose atm.


----------



## tigerboi (2 November 2010)

*bart cummings wins his 13th & 6th quinella!*

ive been telling you guys for a few years now.bart cummings is the man,viewed at 40/1 in 2008.

go his 2 runners.

3.so you think
20.precedence
12.harris tweed
15.monaco consul

high chapparal's 4 sons.

3.so you think
7.shoot out
11.descarado
15.monaco consul


----------



## tech/a (2 November 2010)

I have 7 in both Trifecta and pick 4
$200 on the Trifecta gives me 59% of Dividend.
$200 on Pick 4 Gives me 11%

Wife has all 12 and $51 gets her 1% of the Pick 4 and 6% of the Trifecta ($48).

If the experts cant tip a winner what hope have we.
Shot gun approach best value in my view.

Enjoy.


----------



## Boggo (2 November 2010)

Americain !


----------



## overhang (2 November 2010)

Logique said:


> Hi Pan, not a bad set of criteria.
> 
> It eliminates 9yro Zipping.  All the others I'm looking at meet the criteria. So You Think looks a special, and good barrier draw 3. But crummy short odds.
> At this stage I'll have two box trifs:  So You Think with Americain and Malucky Day, and another sustituting Descarado for Malucky Day.
> ...




Nice tipping Logique, was that you I saw jumping around on the tv?


----------



## tech/a (2 November 2010)

Some nice tipping guys!

Got the treble.
Missed the Pick 4
Wife got them all so 
$150 for me
$69 pick 4 from wife and 
$20 treble from wife
$240 on $ 500 outlay.
better than nothing!


----------



## skc (2 November 2010)

Got the win on Americain... $12 return on $1. Another $6 losses on other bets.

Net profit 600%
Bet entered 2:15pm
Bet exited 3:15pm

Annualised return = several trillian percent


----------



## medicowallet (2 November 2010)

Predicted profound beauty

Bet = $0

Losses = $0

Last prediction for a winner = Empire Rose

Total winners = 1

Ratio of winners for betting lifetime = approx 3%

I actually pick worse than chance.


----------



## prozac (2 November 2010)

Good tipping there Logique. Did you put any on!

Did anyone notice something strange in the after-race interview? No? Well how about 2 seemingly nice Frenchmen!


----------



## So_Cynical (2 November 2010)

i won $75 on Americain  the 20 minutes of study i put in reading the from guide last nite really paid off (French form is good form)...my 4th Melb cup winner in 31 years..i reckon that im probably just in profit if inflation isn't factored in.



pan said:


> This years Melbourne Cup. Who's gunna win it??
> 
> Include any runner who:
> 
> * ran on the Saturday before the Cup, regardless of where they finished.




Lots of good horses have won with out a Saturday run.


----------



## Tink (2 November 2010)

Daughter won win and place with Americain

Son won place with Maluckyday

and I won nil lol

Oh well, was a fun day : )


----------



## Logique (3 November 2010)

overhang said:


> Nice tipping Logique, was that you I saw jumping around on the tv?



He he. All well fancied horses, so not much of a pay out ($267 on NSW TAB), and I only had it once. Bit of a sore head this morning, but it's about good nutrition, beer being a food group.


----------

