# Is this a bear flag?



## jdenhaan (26 November 2013)

Just looking at the CCL daily 6 month. Is this a bear flag?


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## beachlife (26 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

It is a potential flag, you wont know for sure until it confirms.  The next considerations are IF it confirms, and IF it behaves as it should, what is the projected target and where does that sit in terms of support and resistance.  The target sits nicely at support, but it has to get past the support at $12 first.  The major tops are lower, the MA is down and the gap is not a dividend gap, so something might be going on.




BUT

The daily swing bottoms are making higher bottoms and higher tops, so it may be the beginnning of a new upward move off of the $12 support.  Time will tell.





Thanks for the heads up, one to watch for sure.  Now added to the watch list.


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## jdenhaan (26 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Thanks for your insights  How do you calculate the target?


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## beachlife (27 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



jdenhaan said:


> Thanks for your insights  How do you calculate the target?




Its the height of the flag pole,  the easiest way is to just copy the line you drew and place it at the end of the flag.  You place it at the opposite side.  So your flag pole ends at the bottom left of the flag, so the copied lines starts at the top right and projects down.  Other way round for bullish flags.  You can see how I drew them in the images in the post above but exact placement will depend on when the break out happens.


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## beachlife (29 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Now it's getting interesting.  There is often criticism about hindsight trading on this forum, but they also say to not give advice, so I'll just say my entry, stop and profit orders are in, but the trade hadsnt triggered yet.  See what happens next week.


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## skc (29 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> Now it's getting interesting.  There is often criticism about hindsight trading on this forum, but they also say to not give advice, so I'll just say my entry, stop and profit orders are in, but the trade hadsnt triggered yet.  See what happens next week.




If I was to take this trade I'd take it now rather then wait for a conventional "trigger". Much better RR on offer (marked red vs blue).

The situation with CCL is that it is in a earnings downgrade cycle. The last update was 4 Nov and there's no report until Feb. There's unlikely any catalyst for an impulsive up move, and leaves plenty of time for your target to be reached.

Not saying I will trade this or that I'd be right... just saying I'd take a different approach.


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## Gringotts Bank (29 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Seems an ok short set up to me also and agree with skc that now is better for maximizing the return for risk.  If you zoom out there's a trendline that was crossed on 7/11.


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## beachlife (29 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I'm not trading it as a flag so the assumptions about my entry point, stop and target (and risk/reward) are a bit off.  If the trade goes live I will disclose all once its over, win or lose, doesnt matter.  If the OP hadnt raised my curiosity I wouldnt be looking at it, but if it goes like I think, my scan would most likely pick it up on Monday.

Interesting to hear about the fundamentals, I have no idea, I just follow the crowd, often in stocks that I dont even know who they are or what they do.  All I know about ccl is  that its something to do with Coke - I think.

I cant see the trend line, but probably because I dont use them.  I just use a moving averages, swings, ATR and fib/gann ratios.  

I'm not trading it as a flag - I dont use patterns either - but am curious to see if it behaves like one.  Putting some money on it just makes it a bit more interesting.

At the end, for the OP it will be interesting to see how it would have played if traded as a flag, and compare the differences in approaches.

It didnt trigger but I will leave the orders on for Monday morning.


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## skc (29 November 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> I'm not trading it as a flag so the assumptions about my entry point, stop and target (and risk/reward) are a bit off.  If the trade goes live I will disclose all once its over, win or lose, doesnt matter.  If the OP hadnt raised my curiosity I wouldnt be looking at it, but if it goes like I think, my scan would most likely pick it up on Monday.




Sure. Please update us if you do put on the trade.



beachlife said:


> Interesting to hear about the fundamentals, I have no idea, I just follow the crowd, often in stocks that I dont even know who they are or what they do.  All I know about ccl is  that its something to do with Coke - I think.




I think knowing a bit about the fundamentals in this case support a more assertive entry... but each to their own and it may or may not matter.


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## beachlife (3 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I think its safe to say the flag failed.  

My trade is still possible and supported by the MMA (for now) so orders are still in.


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## Valued (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I just wouldn't invest since softdrink is bad for you lol.

That sounds stupid but I think a simple qualitative statement can give you some idea. Softdrink is bad for you, things that are bad for you are not as popular as they used to be and they are trending downwards as people aim to be healthier and therefore it's not a good investment. Further, why support products that make people unhealthy and kill them in the long run?

By the way, pretending you see patterns in charts without understanding what qualitative and quanatiative aspects drive the market is just silly. All you are doing is playing astrology since you don't understand the company. CCL is about the easiest company to understand. They sell lines of primarily beverages such as Coke, Fanta, Sprite, and Mount Franklin Water and are also involved in a number of alcoholic beverages (such as in the case of jim beam, their cola is used as a mixer in the pre mixes) and have interests in some food brands which are also bad for you across the board.


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## DJG (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I suppose all their expenditure into eco-friendly plastics and similar is worth nothing when it comes to being 'ethical'. Thinking blowfill and crush bottles, efficient use of water and fridges, McGrath Breast Cancer foundation (Mount Franklin), Coca Cola Australia (and Indonesia) Foundation, donating to disaster zones and upgrading to PET bottles in to reduce carbon footprint. - But then again, this doesn't count because Coca Cola and everything they sell is 'sugary and fat' - I suppose getting off the couch is just too hard these days!


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## Valued (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



DJG said:


> I suppose all their expenditure into eco-friendly plastics and similar is worth nothing when it comes to being 'ethical'. Thinking blowfill and crush bottles, efficient use of water and fridges, McGrath Breast Cancer foundation (Mount Franklin), Coca Cola Australia (and Indonesia) Foundation, donating to disaster zones and upgrading to PET bottles in to reduce carbon footprint. - But then again, this doesn't count because Coca Cola and everything they sell is 'sugary and fat' - I suppose getting off the couch is just too hard these days!




If Hitler planted some trees it wouldn't make killing jews less undesirable

Haha sorry, that was irresistible.


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## DJG (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Valued said:


> If Hitler planted some trees it wouldn't make killing jews less undesirable
> 
> Haha sorry, that was irresistible.




I get your humour but planting tree's and killing Jews isn't related.  
Perhaps I just don't care about ethical investing...? Each to their own of course.


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## Joe Blow (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Folks, we're getting off topic. Back to the CCL technical analysis please. 

If someone wants to start a separate thread on ethical investing, please feel free to do so.


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## jdenhaan (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Valued said:


> I just wouldn't invest since softdrink is bad for you lol.
> 
> That sounds stupid but I think a simple qualitative statement can give you some idea. Softdrink is bad for you, things that are bad for you are not as popular as they used to be and they are trending downwards as people aim to be healthier and therefore it's not a good investment. Further, why support products that make people unhealthy and kill them in the long run?



CCL is well diversified beyond unhealthy products. As for the stock, it seems to be testing resistance at 12.00. A break through here can see it going back down to about 11.40, which is where the enxt point of resistance seems to be.


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## beachlife (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Entry was triggered today so here's the details and thought process.

1.  I am short the spi so only looking for short trades.
2.  MMA is down and compressed suggesting a fast move down is likely.
3.  Support at $12 has been tested 5 times so expected to fail soon.

So decision is to look for short entry.  

Looking at a 1 day swing chart, the entry was set below the swing bottom at $12.04, with stop above swing top at $12.40.  That gives 36c risk so need 72c move for 2:1 reward/risk.




Now check 2 day swing chart to see if 72c move is likely.  The chart shows 3 down moves of around $1 in 8-9 days, so move of 72c is possible.  It will also be at old resistance which is ok.  If it was past resistance it would have been a deal breaker.




So order was placed.  sell on stop at $12.04, if done buy on stop at $12.40, buy at limit $11.32, OCO.

If the swing high was taken out, order would have been cancelled.  It wasnt so order stayed in market and was triggered this morning.  (the buyers on the 3rd gave it a good try but didnt push it far enough).  Their stops are probably just below $12 so tomorrow will be interesting.

Trailing stop based on 1 day swings and ATR will be used.

40% of my trades lose money, so usual disclaimers apply.

(Interesting observation, not criticism, but the trade suggested by skc would have been stopped out on the 3rd - a good example of how using swing charts and ranges to set triggers and stops can help avoid the whipsaw.)

Also interesting is that if someone had on entered on 29th based on flag break then they would still be in if the stop was based on the high of the 19th - anyone take that entry ?


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## jdenhaan (5 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Your target of $11.32 lies below historical (dec 2011) support levels of around $11.45. What makes you think the stock can sink through that? Or are you going to tighten your stops around that area?


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## beachlife (6 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

The target is only 4c past the support line I drew at 11.36 which is based on the swing charts.  You can see that 11.45 doesnt really fit in with any of the swings.  The target is also above the intra day spike that went through at that time.  I think it might bounce around at that level for a while, not touch it and reverse, so at this stage dont plan to do anything special with the stop.  If it gets to near that point my stop will be around 1:1 by then so there will be some profit to be made.  It's got to stay under $12 first.


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## beachlife (6 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Looks like $12 support is gone, stop moved to $12.28.


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## tech/a (6 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> Looks like $12 support is gone, stop moved to $12.28.




You mean resistance?


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## beachlife (6 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



tech/a said:


> You mean resistance?




No, $12 was acting as support but has now failed.


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## tech/a (6 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> No, $12 was acting as support but has now failed.




Ah--the bar chart!


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## jdenhaan (8 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Valued said:


> If Hitler planted some trees it wouldn't make killing jews less undesirable
> 
> Haha sorry, that was irresistible.




Thank you sir for this excellent example of Godwin's law


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## jdenhaan (10 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

It looks like your trade is working well so far (and my initial hunch about the bear flag was correct). CCL closed at 11.77 today. The $12 support is well gone. Now to muster up the guts to act on hunches like this


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## beachlife (11 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



jdenhaan said:


> Now to muster up the guts to act on hunches like this




Yes the swing chart turned down today making a swing high just below entry, so a perfect time to move stops to $12.04.  So all that is at risk now is costs.




To help with your confidence I suggest opening a cfd account and trading small, even just a $10 risk.  You can start with as little as $200.  That way you start to learn about your emotions and as you get profitable and comfortable you just increase the risk.  SIM trading and paper trading is a waste of time since it doesnt test your emotions.  I learnt this the hard way many years ago.  Paper trade well for a couple of months, and then blow an account up in a matter of weeks.  It all changes when real money is on the line, so its best to learn with a small amount of real money and gradually scale up.


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## beachlife (12 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

An interesting day today so now need to consider where to move the stop to.  There are 5 options.

1.  Just above swing top, which is the same as yesterday,
2.  Guppy count back line, would also put it at $12.04,
3. ATR based.  ATR is 20c.  1.5xATR is 30c.  Close + ATR Stop is 11.46+0.30 = 11.76.  This is within the range of the bar so too close.
4.  Since the move has cleared the 50% point of the projected range the stop could be placed just above it at around $11.82, and that would also confirm a new swing up, but that is very close to the days range this time since ATR is increasing.  
5.  Use the moving average, but its still above the existing stop.

Decision, use the 50% level but also just above the swing low of the 6th, so move stops to $11.88 which locks in profit at 0.4x risk.




The last time there was a volume spike like this on 7th Nov it was an exhaustion, the next day started a touch lower and then went up and became  the start of the counter trend (point B).  Similar on 12 Sept.  Tomorrow will be interesting.  Hopefully target hit just after open, if not will need to watch the close of the day and maybe get out if it turns out to be an up inside day, will depend on where the open and close are.


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## notting (12 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> The last time there was a volume spike like this on 7th Nov it was an exhaustion,




Exhaustion is usually confirmed on the day with a finish well off the lows.
Look at what OZL did yesterday.  That looked like capitulation and exhaustion. (although every bone in my body is telling me to stay away from a long).
On a capitulating day one day chart,  if it retraces above 61.8 it's also indicative of a bounce.
There was no finish well off the lows for CCL, it finished on it's lows, bearish.
Finishing on it's low with huge volume spike on the day after falling through support at 12 is bearish.
I'd be putting a stop above the major support at 12 and be looking to increase the short if tries to retest 12 which should now be tough to penetrate on the upside.
I was long till it broke 12 because I like the Indonesia story. I was building on the support line so it cost me virtually nothing as I got out on the retest.
Now I will be looking to short on retracements to 12.
Watch for what does at 11 It's been pretty strong there.


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## beachlife (12 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



notting said:


> There was no finish well off the lows for CCL, it finished on it's lows, bearish.
> Finishing on it's low with huge volume spike on the day after falling through support at 12 is bearish.




Not always.  For every seller there is a buyer so it also means lots of buyers willing to take from the sellers because they like the price level.  It can be an exhaustion of sellers.

So far its been interesting.  The swing chart will now have a swing up, making a swing bottom at $11.46 and so far the 50% level hasnt been broken, so lets see where it closes.  USA was down, XAO is down, but the volume spike yesterday gave a great warning based on what has happened with this stock twice before, and it looks like it might be happening again, but it's all happened on really low volume so far.  Time will tell.


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## notting (12 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Retraced on the five day to fib .618 or 11.82  and failed = bearish confirmation no.2.  
May try it again usually will go a little higher then flop.

Selling between 11.80 and 11.70 if it gets higher more aggressive selling till a stop out around 12.10 if it gets there with volume and high closes.
Otherwise bare has it till at least 11.


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## beachlife (12 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



notting said:


> Retraced on the five day to fib .618 or 11.82  and failed = bearish confirmation no.2.
> May try it again usually will go a little higher then flop.
> 
> Selling between 11.80 and 11.70 if it gets higher more aggressive selling till a stop out around 12.10 if it gets there with volume and high closes.
> Otherwise bare has it till at least 11.




I think you have misunderstood or maybe we are talking about different time frames. I am bearish on CCL, thats why I entered short.  

My point about the volume spike is that it might be a sign that a retracement will happen and take out the stops.  The history of this stock is that whenever the price has been under the MA and there is a volume spike, it has been the start of a retracement, and for my short time frame, that's a risk of being stopped out.  One way or  the other I only expect to be in this trade for a few more days.




For today, leave stop and target where they are.

oops forgot the arrow on the 3rd from the left but you get the idea


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## notting (12 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Haven't misunderstood what you are doing I'm just talking about the event over recent days, it's very short term implications and probabilities.  It's something that I am trading and so am elaborating, I don't think it is contradicting what you are saying.  I'm just sharing a trading technique that works for me when significant levels get breached or stocks plummet. Like ASL, FGE, QBE and OZL have recently and the very short term money that can be made on wild moves in days!!


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## beachlife (22 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Finally something has happened.

The price went up through 50% but no further than the previous swing low, and closed just below 50%.  My stop wasnt hit so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 2 days.


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## beachlife (23 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Stopped out today for small profit.  Its been interesting to see how the flag projection also failed, and how the volume spike a few days ago was not a sign of bearish continuation.

Anyone interested in hearing a view about how volume is different today than it was when all the TA books were written go to 4:40 on this video.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOSd2oHl4ks

Hope you enjoyed following the trade.


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## notting (23 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Revisiting support for a good short setup like a whole pack of mining services companies.  
Let it run a bit more whilst the amateurs are driving the slay through Chirstrash. 
Then hit the sell buttons.  That's my plan


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## Porper (23 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> Finally something has happened.
> 
> The price went up through 50% but no further than the previous swing low, and closed just below 50%.  My stop wasnt hit so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 2 days.
> 
> View attachment 55952




I see it totally different Beachlife.

5 waves down followed by an Elliott Wave triangle. Todays high hit the 61.8% retracement level. If rejection is seen here there is a good chance that the measured move out of the triangle will be hit. It needs to turn lower now for me to be interested in a short trade.


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## beachlife (23 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Porper said:


> I see it totally different Beachlife.




I'm not sure what you mean by different, I didnt really say anything in that post except that my stop had been threatened (and today was hit, so I am out).

I havent got a view now, have to wait to see where the next swing top is.

The OP nailed the support at 11.45.

Notting  - I would be interested to follow your trade when it happens, or after it's finished if you prefer.


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## pixel (23 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Coke has today come up with a Trinity signal; if it can hold above the falling resistance line, we're on a winner.




... Long trade, that is.


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## pixel (24 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



pixel said:


> Coke has today come up with a Trinity signal; if it can hold above the falling resistance line, we're on a winner.
> ... Long trade, that is.




so far, so good


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## beachlife (24 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Not familiar with Trinity.  Are you in or waiting for some sort of entry signal?  Where is the stop & target?


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## Boggo (24 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> I havent got a view now, have to wait to see where the next swing top is.
> 
> The OP nailed the support at 11.45.




DP (decision point) trade signal looking ok so far with a good potential R/R. Stop would now be breakeven today.
(I don't hold)

(daily chart - click to expand)


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## pixel (24 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> Not familiar with Trinity.  Are you in or waiting for some sort of entry signal?  Where is the stop & target?




On the first leg up, I only trade Intraday swings (different chart).
Once Primary Resistance is confirmed - best guess at this stage: 100% = $12.33 - I measure the depth of the resistance and buy for a lt-hold at strength, adding once Primary Resistance is broken.

Target = top of the gap, coinciding with Fib Phi;
Stop = $12.00, coinciding with Fib phi.

Both subject to change as chart is progressing.


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## notting (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



beachlife said:


> Notting  - I would be interested to follow your trade when it happens, or after it's finished if you prefer.




Fingers gett'n itchy!! around this 12.20 to short again.


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## tech/a (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



notting said:


> Fingers gett'n itchy!! around this 12.20 to short again.




Any supporting analysis?


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## notting (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



tech/a said:


> Any supporting analysis?




No it's not technical, other than it has been showing weakness and I believe this run up back through the support around 12 is due to a bit of Christmas hype rather than the bulk of the market rhythm with lots of pros on holiday.

I would be getting out just above 12.40 as a stop and selling more between 12.20 and 12.40 till that point.  I will watch for what it does later afternoon  to see if it retests the high of the day and then watch what it does to decide how aggressive I might like to be!

I should add that 10 year yields have gone through 3% on a very timid move by the fed.  That should be ringing plenty of alarm bells despite the 4%annualized growth for a quarter.


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## Valued (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



notting said:


> No it's not technical, other than it has been showing weakness and I believe this run up back through the support around 12 is due to a bit of Christmas hype rather than the bulk of the market rhythm with lots of pros on holiday.
> 
> I would be getting out just above 12.40 as a stop and selling more between 12.20 and 12.40 till that point.  I will watch for what it does later afternoon  to see if it retests the high of the day and then watch what it does to decide how aggressive I might like to be!
> 
> I should add that 10 year yields have gone through 3% on a very timid move by the fed.  That should be ringing plenty of alarm bells despite the 4%annualized growth for a quarter.




Hmm I will have a go at giving a brief supporting analysis that tech/a enquired about. I am not sure if you and tech/a will think it's right but I shall give it a go anyway.

Overall if you zoom out to a year time frame and look at a graph the stock is in a long term down trend for the last 8 months. It's making lower lows and higher lows. This is our first hint that we may want to look at shorting this stock.

We hit a six month low in mid December and now the stock has been inching higher. There is no evidence to support any kind of consolidation or sideways market. The most probable is that the downtrend is continuing and this is going to turn into a higher low.

On the 11 December 2013 the market sold this stock in a large volume in a very clear tone. There is only one small wick. Essentially the level of volume and wide candle shows a strong dislike of the stock at this time. The next day the stock rose on about half the volume as the day before. We have a long wick and it looks like the buying pressure was pushed down by sellers. The buyers outnumbered the sellers then. We then see two days of low volume selling. The 16th of December was interesting. The stock gapped higher by a fair bit but then sold down to the previous close. This was on low volume. I don't have an explanation for this. 

Not much happens for a couple of days except some brief sideways action. Then the stock suddenly breaks out on around average volume. On the second day of the breakout the buyers lose steam though since there is a lot of volume but not much movement. It looks like the sellers are keeping the buyers in check. At this point people who bought at the low point are selling into those trying to get on the breakout. The next day there is a small volume but quite a big movement upwards. This tells us many of the sellers have already exited and now the buyers are driving the price up fast (low volume buyers with sellers who don't want to sell since they feel like they are riding the breakout = low volume large movement upwards). The next day the same thing happens. Even lower volume with a larger move up. Buyers are trying to get on the wagon here to not miss out on the potential profits in this breakout. 

Then what happens? Well now there are only the people who bought in the breakout left (as far as the short term traders go) with significantly dropping buying volume. These people who bought at the start and middle of their breakout seeing the loss of momentum will now want to sell. This will end up driving the price down and in turn the people who bought at the top of the breakout will now want to cut their losses. This should then result in a pullback.

If what I said above makes sense/is true then I suspect the pullback will be a minor one and the stock will head up a bit more again to make a higher low. It should then drop back down in accordance with the long term downtrend. This may change in February since an interim report will be released but until then as long as there are no other news, I think this analysis is reasonable and involves 1. no chart astrology and 2. no obscure financial news about things happening overseas that no one really understands but pretends to.

Opinions?


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## tech/a (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

All analysis is correct until proven in correct.
You can certainly argue for the 3 possible outcomes.
Long
Short
Ranging.
My bet is ranging 
before continuation on the 
Very long time frame--Months/year 
to the upside.


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## notting (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I am also keeping an eye on the Ausi $.
It has showed a little strength over the lead up to Christmas yet is appearing to run out of puff.
If it does continue lower from here that will also put negative pressure on our market as internationals look to keep exiting rather than come back, yet.


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## Muschu (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



tech/a said:


> All analysis is correct until proven in correct.
> You can certainly argue for the 3 possible outcomes.
> Long
> Short
> ...




I really appreciate your posts tech /a and value your views.

The first line above intrigues me however - although it could well be right.

Good food for thought.... So thanks.


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## Valued (27 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Muschu said:


> I really appreciate your posts tech /a and value your views.
> 
> The first line above intrigues me however - although it could well be right.
> 
> Good food for thought.... So thanks.




I don't think all analysis is correct until proven incorrect. I am sure there is bad analysis!


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## beachlife (28 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

This is where the MMA is a handly tool.  The long termn averages are turning and price has popped up through the long term group.  My guess is some bouncing around sideways.   So while there is a rejection at Fib 50% saying a short might be good, the higher swing bottoms and higher swing tops says go long, but the MMA keeps me out of both.  Interesting to see what happens, we have one long trader and one short, both might profit from some bouncing around.


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## tech/a (28 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Valued said:


> I don't think all analysis is correct until proven incorrect. I am sure there is bad analysis!




There is certainly poor and very bad analysis.
But I put to you.

*When do you know it's bad?
Think about it!*

----When it's proven in correct.
I'm not limiting that comment to technical analysis either.

To perhaps make your point
There are 3 views presented here on CCL
The bad analysis---which one or two presented is it.


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I'm bullish on CCL.

Pure gut feeling.

As above.

Who knows?

gg


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## Muschu (28 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Valued said:


> I don't think all analysis is correct until proven incorrect. I am sure there is bad analysis!




I was trying to think of a medical analogy....  

Thinking it is just a matter of semantics and personal viewpoint.

Whatever...


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## tech/a (28 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Muschu said:


> I was trying to think of a medical analogy....
> 
> Thinking it is just a matter of semantics and personal viewpoint.
> 
> Whatever...




Your correct it is.
Until it is validated one way or the other.
At that point it is either proven correct or in correct.
Just like a diagnosis.


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## Valued (28 December 2013)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



tech/a said:


> Your correct it is.
> Until it is validated one way or the other.
> At that point it is either proven correct or in correct.
> Just like a diagnosis.




That's like schrodinger's cat though except that we have indicators that may point us in one direction or the other as to whether the cat is alive. Therefore, while the cat might both be living and dead, proper analysis will allow us to choose which is more likely. The theoretically optimal analysis will be the one that presents us with the highest edge. Simply saying that it's either correct or incorrect doesn't really tell us much!


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## jdenhaan (14 January 2014)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Is there a cup and handle forming or am I being overzealous in seeing patterns?


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## tech/a (14 January 2014)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Valued said:


> That's like schrodinger's cat though except that we have indicators that may point us in one direction or the other as to whether the cat is alive. Therefore, while the cat might both be living and dead, proper analysis will allow us to choose which is more likely. The theoretically optimal analysis will be the one that presents us with the highest edge. Simply saying that it's either correct or incorrect doesn't really tell us much!




Of course it does.

It tells us to trade our analysis and 
play it out as it plays out!

In other words take decisive action with a decision 
You'll not know if your right or wrong until it plays out.
Have appropriate action ready for each scenario.
Limit risk and Maximise profit.

Right now its making up its mind!
So analysis says Watch.


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## jdenhaan (28 January 2014)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



tech/a said:


> Of course it does.
> 
> It tells us to trade our analysis and
> play it out as it plays out!
> ...




Looks like its starting to make up its mind a bit more firmly. $12 support was gone with a 11.99 close and the way down seems to have been found at least intra day.


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## beachlife (28 January 2014)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Came up in my scan a couple of days ago but risk:reward was too low so I passed.


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## Wyatt (2 October 2016)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

I am looking for opinions on this chart. It is a stock I should have bought a few months ago and have recently again been  considering. The stock has trended very well for the last 15 months and the pullback could be a good opportunity. The recent price action looks like some kind of bear flag or does this only apply during downtrends.




Thoughts?


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## Triathlete (2 October 2016)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*



Wyatt said:


> I am looking for opinions on this chart. It is a stock I should have bought a few months ago and have recently again been  considering. The stock has trended very well for the last 15 months and the pullback could be a good opportunity. The recent price action looks like some kind of bear flag or does this only apply during downtrends.
> 
> 
> 
> Thoughts?




Here is my quick analysis on your BSL chart.

I have used a *monthly chart* to look at the longer term trend and can see that there is resistance at around $9.60 - $9.80 level which is also the 50% retracement level from July 2012 back up to July 2009.

So if I was looking to get into the stock I would wait until it closing above this level before I would buy in that is just my own opinion though 

If it does this than we could get a further run up....... but at present this level could be the turning point back down....time will tell though.....


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## Wyatt (2 October 2016)

*Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?*

Hi Triathlete,

Thanks for your prompt reply, we will sit and wait and see, me thinks


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