# DCG - Decmil Group



## Miner (28 July 2009)

Hi 

Is there any one who following this stock ?

I noticed it is an interesting rising star. Look its graph and order booking position. 

Solid booking for next two years. Very few companies can claim so. 

They are also working in a unique area where risk is minimum compared to construction in engineering plant and machinery. 

Also look at the transaction on 24 th July - almost four times of other days

Have a look and let me know your thoughts. (attached doc)


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## Pallen (29 July 2009)

Scope for improvement?

Wasnt a recent contract cancelled on the back of a mine closure? One of the two big boys I think?


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## bobdog (29 July 2009)

Hi Miner

Looks pretty good to me. Wish i had see them in Feb.
I kike the fact that the directors are are major shareholders and the possibility of the 500m piping project. will only be good for the SP if they land it. Bought a few today so hope it all goes well.
Cheers


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## drlog (14 January 2011)

Hi all,

The prospects for this little stock look pretty good. I have been working on some software to plot Intrinsic Value (IV) and price.

DCG is trading around fair value as far as I can tell but that value looks like it should increase over the next few years. Note: the IV is calculated based on commsec's forecast EPS and DPS which, as we all know, are probably wrong 

Anyway, just a bit of fun, the program is going quite well. Disclosure: I hold.


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## Noddy (14 January 2011)

Hello drlog.

What are you using to calculate I/V.
I normally use DCF.
Do you have a more sophisticated method ?

Regards


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## drlog (15 January 2011)

Noddy said:


> Hello drlog.
> 
> What are you using to calculate I/V.
> I normally use DCF.
> ...




I use the method in Value.able - Roger Montgomery's book. I am interested in adding more IV calculations to my program so I will look in to implementing the DCF model.

The Value.able method is based on Richard Simmons' book and the main inputs are ROE, payout ratio and required return. So, I think it is quite a simple model but as you can see in the graph above, from 2009 to now it has been reasonably accurate.

If I could find the current forecast EPS and DPS for all days in the past, I think there would be a better fit. At the moment, all I use is the reported information at the end of the financial year and interpolate between those points. Hence the straight line segments.

Anyway, it's a work in progress and the main point I was trying to make is that DCG looks like it is at about fair value.


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## McCoy Pauley (24 March 2011)

Looking to invest some money and DCG has come up on the watch-list as a possible destination for my money.  The first half results seemed to be very positive and they since announced another contract win worth $55 million over 12 months from Fortescue Metals Group.  I have it trading at a discount to predicted intrinsic value of about $4.30/share at the moment, based at a premium to the intrinsic value from the end of the previous financial year.

Anyone have any thoughts on Decmil?


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## drlog (24 March 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Looking to invest some money and DCG has come up on the watch-list as a possible destination for my money.  The first half results seemed to be very positive and they since announced another contract win worth $55 million over 12 months from Fortescue Metals Group.  I have it trading at a discount to predicted intrinsic value of about $4.30/share at the moment, based at a premium to the intrinsic value from the end of the previous financial year.
> 
> Anyone have any thoughts on Decmil?




Yes, the market seems to have not cared about that contract, leaving DCG undervalued. I bought more recently. My IV isn't as high as yours but it is still higher than the current share price!


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## McCoy Pauley (24 March 2011)

drlog said:


> Yes, the market seems to have not cared about that contract, leaving DCG undervalued. I bought more recently. My IV isn't as high as yours but it is still higher than the current share price!




Thanks drlog.

IMO, it's a bit difficult to predict the intrinsic value for DCG because the company has given only broad guidance about the second half of the year, including saying that the board intends to declare a dividend without saying (as far as I've been able to tell) the size of the dividend.  I suppose that's where RM's advice of being vaguely right rather than precisely wrong comes into play.


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## VSntchr (24 March 2011)

I sold out of DCG a few months back as I felt it had surpassed my estimate of what its worth. That value may have risen slightly now, although in my opinion I cant see any decent margin of safety currently present...


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## drlog (24 March 2011)

VSntchr said:


> I sold out of DCG a few months back as I felt it had surpassed my estimate of what its worth. That value may have risen slightly now, although in my opinion I cant see any decent margin of safety currently present...




Heh, I may have snatched your shares from you  Seriously though, when I bought my MOS was small but the future IV of DCG is going up (with my current valuations - see my graph above).


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## VSntchr (24 March 2011)

Haha you may very well have. I think I bagged $2.88 for them, at first this seemed a perfect move...but I see it has tipped over the $3.00 mark now. 
Im not too unhappy as I used the funds to buy TSM which has performed very well thus far.

Out of interest, what are your future NPAT forecasts for DCG?
I have 
2011 - 23m
2012 - 27m
2013 - 31m

keep in mind these are from a while ago and may be outdated as I havent updated my research on DCG since selling.
Based on that NPAT, my value for DCG for 2013 is still only $2.77, hence why I chose to bail out!

Best of luck.


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## McCoy Pauley (24 March 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Haha you may very well have. I think I bagged $2.88 for them, at first this seemed a perfect move...but I see it has tipped over the $3.00 mark now.
> Im not too unhappy as I used the funds to buy TSM which has performed very well thus far.
> 
> Out of interest, what are your future NPAT forecasts for DCG?
> ...




I have an NPAT of $28 million for FY11 based on the company's (admittedly vague) guidance in its half-year results, where they basically said that they expect second half performance to be similar to first-half performance.  From memory, DCG announced an NPAT of just over $14 million for the first half of FY11.


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## McCoy Pauley (30 March 2011)

Another contract win announced yesterday - $71 million job with BHP Billiton Iron Ore to install buildings for accommodation facilities in WA with work to commence immediately and an expected completion date of October 2012.  The job lifts the order book for 2011/2012 to $250 million worth of contracts.

Nice one.


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## tinhat (18 July 2011)

Anyone got the insider info on DCG? What's happening? Share price coming right back. Down 5% as of 2pm today! Currently 2.48 Which is right on the fib 61.8% pullback from the Sept 2010 breakout to April 2011 bull run.


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## skc (18 July 2011)

tinhat said:


> Anyone got the insider info on DCG? What's happening? Share price coming right back. Down 5% as of 2pm today! Currently 2.48 Which is right on the fib 61.8% pullback from the Sept 2010 breakout to April 2011 bull run.




Probably a bit of nervousness ahead of their full year results. Anyone who bought in since the HY result are pretty much underwater.

The old saying "It's falling so market must know something" tends to scare plenty of people away.

If one is trading technically he/she probably should have been stopped out some time ago.

If one is trading fundamentally I don't know why he/she wouldn't hold until the report comes out.


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## tinhat (19 July 2011)

Still getting hammered today on very little volume. Last year they reported in late August. Could be a good buy if the price turns around. I'm detecting a higher degree of nervousness in the market over the pick and shovel, mining services companies.


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## VSntchr (5 August 2011)

In the goldman sachs investor pres. DCG spoke of unprecedented contract tendering with a heap of upcoming potential contracts from companies that they have reputation with. 

The sell off in service stocks is being put down to a lack of contracts...so it seems that the market is selling on the rumour...I guess we will have to wait to see if buying on the fact occurs??

As stated earlier in this thread I sold out at near $3, but with the price dropping back below my valuation...I am interested once again...will be stalking this one closely!


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## McCoy Pauley (8 August 2011)

VSntchr said:


> In the goldman sachs investor pres. *DCG spoke of unprecedented contract tendering with a heap of upcoming potential contracts from companies that they have reputation with. *
> 
> The sell off in service stocks is being put down to a lack of contracts...so it seems that the market is selling on the rumour...I guess we will have to wait to see if buying on the fact occurs??
> 
> As stated earlier in this thread I sold out at near $3, but with the price dropping back below my valuation...I am interested once again...will be stalking this one closely!




Just to clarify this - does DCG need to re-tender for current contracts or is it only for new contracts?

Price down to $1.89/share and still falling. Back on my radar after I sold out a few months ago.


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## VSntchr (8 August 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Just to clarify this - does DCG need to re-tender for current contracts or is it only for new contracts?
> 
> Price down to $1.89/share and still falling. Back on my radar after I sold out a few months ago.




New contracts...
No news would suggest either slow processes/projects being delayed or cancelled. Or unfortunately alot of failed attempts.

If this gets much lower ill be swooping...but with not much capital to play with I'm being very tentative with what im buying at the moment


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## VSntchr (18 August 2011)

NPAT came out alot lower than what alot of people in this thread had expected. Even a little lower than what I had penned down.

Number of workers has gone down by about 40% from 900something to 500something...a big concern seeing as in WA the skills shortage is getting extreme (from what I've heard). This could really be a problem if they have to hire quickly (paying exuberant amounts).

I heard on the business channel a few weeks back that some of the big companies were even putting workers on a year in advance of them actually being required..just to ensure they had them when they needed them!!


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## McCoy Pauley (18 August 2011)

DCG being hammered early.  Down almost 6% in the first few minutes of trading.  Investors not happy with the report.


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## skc (18 August 2011)

skc said:


> Probably a bit of nervousness ahead of their full year results. Anyone who bought in since the HY result are pretty much underwater.
> 
> The old saying *"It's falling so market must know something"* tends to scare plenty of people away.




Yup the market did know something. I have no idea how it knows what it knows.

There are no shortage of examples where the market is totally stupid. At the same time, examples like these show how smart the market can be.

The learning never ends...


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## Noddy (18 August 2011)

DCG have produced record results.
Revenue up 20%
NPAT up 24%
EPS 18.9cp
CASH ON HAND $64 mil
ROE 20%
Strong order book
Maiden dividend 6cps.

What's not to like, yet the price has fallen nearly 10% today.
Hard to understand ?


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## skc (18 August 2011)

Noddy said:


> DCG have produced record results.
> Revenue up 20%
> NPAT up 24%
> EPS 18.9cp
> ...




Share price falling doesn't mean the company is not doing well. It can also mean that the share price was too high before. 

If you look at their 2nd half numbers they were substantially weaker than first half. e.g. Full year NPAT $23.5m, HY NPAT $14.2m, which means H2 was only $9.3m.

If they have little or no growth, a PE ~10-12 would be a fair price. Based on their EPS ~18.9c that's $1.89 to $2.25. But chances are, because of the weak H2 figures, market is saying rolling 12month EPS of 15c @ PE 12 ~$1.9. 

The current share price is only an opportunity if they re-gain momentum to grow EPS...

For a strong result and market's reaction to it, look at IDL.


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## drlog (19 August 2011)

skc said:


> Share price falling doesn't mean the company is not doing well. It can also mean that the share price was too high before.
> 
> If you look at their 2nd half numbers they were substantially weaker than first half. e.g. Full year NPAT $23.5m, HY NPAT $14.2m, which means H2 was only $9.3m.
> 
> ...




You make some excellent points. The order book is currently at 300mil with a further 670mil tendered and 3bn potential. I think growth will continue in at least the medium term.

ROE did fall as did operating cash flow - something to keep our eyes on.

Like you stated before, the number of employees were reduced due to ramp updelays - does anyone have insights on that? Perhaps it means more aggressive future growth IF they are able to find more staff at the right time.

All in all, I think the market has undervalued DCG - I think they are worth at least $2 so I will continue holding.


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## tinhat (19 April 2012)

Wow, I really wish I had bought some more DCG when the price was trading around $2 late last year.

I wonder what price targets people have for DCG? I'm thinking $3.30 would be a good run (which is also around consensus). That would also represent a PE of 12 based on consensus forecasts of EPS of 27.20 for 2013. My problem is letting profits run though. I got stung last year by not taking profits and sticking to stop losses so I've been a bit shy this year and have sold out early in the run-up on a couple of stocks only to see them climb further in recent weeks.

On the charts the 200 day MA is only just turning up.

I've got a lot of stocks in my portfolio that are nearing their 2011 highs and it's making me nervous!


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## tinhat (14 August 2012)

DCG share price up 10% today on the announcement that they are buying the remaining 50% of the Gladstone accommodation joint venture. I don't know what the analysis of the deal is, but there is some expectation that this could be a good income producer over the medium term.


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## tinhat (24 October 2012)

DCG is getting hammered today with some bigger volume going through after the bell. I wonder if there is something I don't know about going on.


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## Boggo (24 October 2012)

tinhat said:


> DCG is getting hammered today with some bigger volume going through after the bell. I wonder if there is something I don't know about going on.




Not sure what happened there tinny, I was long at 2.63 but stopped out at 2.70 today (held 6000, not 9250 as indicated below).
Was heading nicely towards target but something spooked it.


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## Country Lad (25 June 2013)

A little double bottom.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## skc (25 June 2013)

Country Lad said:


> A little double bottom.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




The only stock in the sector that's showing some sign of strength at the moment.


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## Country Lad (2 July 2013)

skc said:


> The only stock in the sector that's showing some sign of strength at the moment.




A bit more strength.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## skyQuake (2 July 2013)

Great moves today off that back of that contract. 
Was hoping to add some at 1.70 but looks like it won't see there for a while


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## pixel (16 December 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Great moves today off that back of that contract.
> Was hoping to add some at 1.70 but looks like it won't see there for a while




That was indeed a nice move; unfortunately, not for long.
Will it bounce this time and regain old heights? Or was today's rise simply a follow-the-leader of the other mining support companies? 




Coming off my scan, I added it to my watchlist; didn't buy yet because I already hold ASL and WOR. But if the break is confirmed, I see potential for a bigger rise - possibly 50% or more; check the roles that historic Fibonacci levels have played over the last 2 years.


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## piggybank (29 December 2013)




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## pixel (10 January 2014)

Seems to be finding support at 50% of December range.
If candle looks this way at Close, I'll get back in.


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## Cam019 (22 October 2017)

Almost textbook markdown and accumulation phases on the 5 year daily chart. Watch for the markup phase with a break >$1.45.

Disclosure: I hold.


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## peter2 (23 December 2019)

It's been two years since the last post on DCG. For good reason, the price has dropped from 1.45 to below 0.70. It bounced off the longer term support line at 0.65 but has struggled to get moving since then. 
I bought a position earlier in the year after a bullish weekly bar and had plans to add when price got above 1.00. Price never got moving higher, instead it just ambled sideways. This is an example where a stale exit may have helped prevent a loss. (Note to self). 

DCG recently reported some problems with it's almost completed Sunraysia Solar project (NSW). 
Price fell substantially indicating to me that the problem is a bit more serious than the announcement states. I swallowed the slightly larger than planned loss when price closed well below my exit trigger. 

Price continued to fall on increasing volume and is now at the longer term support level. Now I'm pleased with my exit. 

Another market update today with more disappointing news. Someone (last weeks high volume seller) knew what was coming. Price fell another 30% today. 

The management team at DCG have lots to do but I doubt their ability to do it. They've been struggling with the business since 2011.


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## Miner (23 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> It's been two years since the last post on DCG. For good reason, the price has dropped from 1.45 to below 0.70. It bounced off the longer term support line at 0.65 but has struggled to get moving since then. (_Do not understand how to call 65 cents was a support level if the prices have dwindled by more than 34 % today ) _
> I bought a position earlier in the year after a bullish weekly bar and had plans to add when price got above 1.00. Price never got moving higher, instead it just ambled sideways. This is an example where a stale exit may have helped prevent a loss. (Note to self).
> 
> DCG recently reported some problems with it's almost completed Sunraysia Solar project (NSW).
> ...



Hi Pete
Greetings for a Merry Christmas and all the best for 2020.
I read your posting few times and you being a real well wisher for all of us on ASF, do you mind asking some queries to get more understanding.
I have highlighted next to your posting. Not rude - but saves writing twice .
I also read mid week alert from a paid newsletter,  which has recommended DCG a buy today after the crash. I am not suggesting they are right as often newsletters pump share prices when they do have a managed fund invested on those shares.
Personally, I read the financials and even the price could down by another 4-5% tomorrow, with CY ending, I do believe DCG could be a good case to watch (this is not what you have said. I will take your analysis is far  superior).
Looking back, was surprised to see in 2009, I started this thread . 
Nonetheless, here is the extract, within copyright provision:
-
_xxx today’s market reaction is excessive, but this may also come back to the fact the company only recently announced issues with respect to the Sunraysia solar farm project. Again, these are not expected to have a material impact on earnings, but have a cash impact.  With the latest update coming soon after that announcement (12th December), investors have perhaps become wary.

Nonetheless they  believe the investment case for Decmil is a strong one, and even more so at current share price levels. xxxxx  to see director buying in the wake of this morning’s share price weakness.
_
*xx recommend Decmil Group as a buy xxx without exposure.*


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## peter2 (24 December 2019)

@Miner Wishing you and your family and friends a safe and happy holiday season. I'm pleased to reply to your questions.

(1) Support level at 0.65. A price level is important if a swing high or swing low (pivot point high/low) forms at a level at least twice. On the weekly/monthly chart of DCG, price made a low at 0.655 (April/16), then again at Dec18. This defines an important level and we call it support because it's below price and price bounced off it twice so far. Last Friday price traded at/below 0.655 once more and closed above. Will longer term investors (instos) buy again at this level?  As it happened no because DCG released an update outlining further concerns.

A chart support level is merely a line on a chart that indicates prior support. It didn't stop price falling further today. I never presume that a chart line will hold price, but I am interested to see what happens at that price level.

(2) The root cause for the loss is that not enough people bought DCG after I did. The demand that I saw in the chart, disappeared. Supply offset demand and so price traded sideways on low volume for many months until the recent news.
I sold one day later than I should have, so I'm not happy about that. 

(3) Additional supply hit the market today and forced prices well below the support line. Prior support now becomes resistance as there's bound to be lots of unhappy holders that will sell if price gets near 0.65 in the future.

(4) Now that I'm out. I can reassess the situation with a clearer head. Has this gone down too far? I'm unable to form an opinion on this as it's outside my area of expertise. I won't know until I see what happens next. I thought the Sunraysia Solar delay was inconvenient but hardly worth the selloff. However the additional concerns imply that management are not in control of multiple projects. I believe that margins are very thin in the engineering/construction business so it doesn't take much for a project to become a problem.

I did notice that two directors bought shares yesterday. They can buy more now at a lower price.


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## Miner (7 January 2020)

peter2 said:


> @Miner Wishing you and your family and friends a safe and happy holiday season. I'm pleased to reply to your questions.
> 
> (1) Support level at 0.65. A price level is important if a swing high or swing low (pivot point high/low) forms at a level at least twice. On the weekly/monthly chart of DCG, price made a low at 0.655 (April/16), then again at Dec18. This defines an important level and we call it support because it's below price and price bounced off it twice so far. Last Friday price traded at/below 0.655 once more and closed above. Will longer term investors (instos) buy again at this level?  As it happened no because DCG released an update outlining further concerns.
> 
> ...



@peter2 
what is your current update on DCG.
I could see the prices are going up slowly. But the signs of MUFG to unload on the same day and others to get out - gives something strange signal if long term is going to be good.
Since 27 Dec all I see the reduction of holding by instos. MUFG was too excited to publish two notices on same day. 
On personal side, I bought at a very low price on 23 Dec 2019, and less than 15 days,  the price has gone up more than 20%. But that makes me think seriously. What instos saw to get out ?  Confused, if i  should hold it or sale. Any one chart analysis ? Your support level of 65 cents is yet to arrive. So is the rise before going down massively ? 
Any other poster can share their observation on DCG's recent trend ? 
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200106/pdf/44d2x76ntgbdd2.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200106/pdf/44d2wjjjy97sh0.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200102/pdf/44d0rz7wvtdv35.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191231/pdf/44czpcf69ffqhq.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191227/pdf/44cxrtqnqzvwdz.pdf


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## peter2 (7 January 2020)

DCG appeared in this arvo's 1st BB scan and I thought hmm... that's interesting. This is not a reversal setup for me yet as I'd like to see another dip that doesn't make a new low. 

The recent notices are informing the market of those that sold off some of their holdings after the recent poor news. I'd call it capitulation volume as a few insto's sold. The reduction in holdings of these insto's was approx 1% so they haven't bailed yet. Interestingly I noticed that TOP (Thorney) added to their position on the big down day. 

No more updates from the management after their last brief that mentioned another delayed project (NZ prison), a write down of an asset and the departure of the CFO.


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## Miner (7 January 2020)

peter2 said:


> DCG appeared in this arvo's 1st BB scan and I thought hmm... that's interesting. This is not a reversal setup for me yet as I'd like to see another dip that doesn't make a new low.
> 
> The recent notices are informing the market of those that sold off some of their holdings after the recent poor news. I'd call it capitulation volume as a few insto's sold. The reduction in holdings of these insto's was approx 1% so they haven't bailed yet. Interestingly I noticed that TOP (Thorney) added to their position on the big down day.
> 
> ...



Excellent and many thanks Pete.
Your very balanced view and approach is admiring..
I will be on side line watching for any further dip before exiting. 
All the best for prosperity and happiness. In the new decade.


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## Miner (25 February 2020)

DCG thought to get a jail free card??

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200225/pdf/44ffwbxsx2yl4b.pdf
I dont think so. Will see when trading halt is removed.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200225/pdf/44ff58x8gkvs8l.pdf


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## Miner (12 March 2020)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200312/pdf/44g048gg9c9xw8.pdf
What an announcement today when every where all we can see blood - no matter which stock it is (some exceptions) and what will happen on Friday in the market  to DCG after announcement made after the  closing of  trade today :


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## peter2 (19 May 2020)

*DCG* has requested two consecutive trading halts (2 x 2 days) to confirm a capital raising. 

They've also announced a new CEO. Shares will resume trading on Mon 25th May, 2020.


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## qldfrog (20 May 2020)

Decmil has often popped up in my systems.been in out in the past years.never made it to a positive long trend.on a fundamental basis, the more i learn, the worst..new management to help?


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## Miner (20 May 2020)

peter2 said:


> *DCG* has requested two consecutive trading halts (2 x 2 days) to confirm a capital raising.
> 
> They've also announced a new CEO. Shares will resume trading on Mon 25th May, 2020.



I gather market will responding to a steroid AKA new CEO when opens on 25 May.
Watching to see the ailing  baby recovering.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 May 2020)

Hey Miner, there's an article in the AFR about Decmil...... and it's not really flattering!

Sounds like there's more dilution to happen, more shareholder pain. 







> With an order book it wants to see through, and plenty of promises about restructuring initiatives, the company and its broker Hartleys asked for a fresh start on Tuesday and will ramp up the pitch on Wednesday. Decmil wants $40 million. It wants existing investors to pile into the rights issue and those same investors - with the help of some of its former supporters - to head into the placement.
> 
> While the deal had not priced as of Tuesday night, fundies said they were asked to mull about 10¢ a share, which would be a 50 per cent discount to the last close. In reality, fundies reckon the discount may end up even wider. A bookbuild is scheduled for later this week. Anything at or above 50 per cent would be a big discount - but indicative of Decmil's situation, and not far off what [other distressed companies] had to do to secure their own lifelines.
> 
> The raising came as Decmil has been fighting for survival. It secured some relief from its bankers and surety bond providers earlier this month, and flagged that it was exploring "a range of capital options" to recapitalise the balance sheet. It's also looking to sell its Homeground Gladstone accommodation village in Queensland.


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## peter2 (28 May 2020)

OMG!   Capital raising pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer of 4.2 new shares for every 1 existing share at an issue price of 0.05 per new share to raise up to 50Mill. 
Retail offer closes 17 June, 2020. 

This looks like an IPO. Scrap the old DCG and recapitalise a new one. 

From the front page of the prospectus.






My main concern is whether the new management team can do better than the old. The old team stuffed up badly.


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## peter2 (3 June 2020)

I knew I was in for a solid hit with the huge recapitalisation of DCG. I was anticipating an opening about 0.06 (last close before the trading halt at 0.20). 

Opening at 0.075 I was surprised to see it rise to 0.15. I scrambled to exit at 0.12. Price settled at 0.093. A loss of 53% since the last close. 

OK that's done. The loss has been realised and this always feels better. What happens next. I believe I'm entitled to participate in the retail entitlement offer. For every 1 share I owned I'm entitled to buy up to 4.2 new shares at 0.05 each.  

DCG is currently trading above 0.08 so I'll keep an eye on this while waiting for the entitlement offer documents to arrive.


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## peter2 (7 June 2020)

OH no, please don't ask me to go to investorcentre. I don't deserve this.


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## peter2 (15 June 2020)

DCG retail entitlement decision time (offer closes 17th June 2020).
Current closing price 0.053.  Offer price 0.05.
TERP when offer announced 0.079. At that time the decision to buy was much easier, now with minimal premium the decision is much harder.

This decision has to based on fundamental and commonsense reasons. The price chart has been damaged by this offer.

DCG is in this predicament because they've poorly managed many of their customer relationships. DCG is currently in dispute with too many of them (NZ Dept of Corrections, Sunraysia Solar Farm, SCEE arbitration, BHP, UPL, SBS, NAB bank Standstill agreement). COVID-19 border closures have prevented their workers from travelling interstate.

Reading through all the risks I feel like the punk in the Dirty Harry movie, "Do you feel lucky, punk?".


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## finicky (15 June 2020)

Got out of this years ago at a significant loss - but waay less than if I were still holding today. Surprising - and I suppose noteworthy - that Thorney Group thought it was worth upping their stake at these low prices. Decmil still retains two of its executive directors from its period of intense failure. They must have a lot of clout.


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## galumay (16 June 2020)

I am not sure it can survive. Its close to folding I think, one significant finding against them in any of the many disputes would probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back.


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## Klogg (16 June 2020)

galumay said:


> I am not sure it can survive. Its close to folding I think, one significant finding against them in any of the many disputes would probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back.




I'm not a fan of the business, but at $45m MC and working capital at $55m, it could fall into the realm of net-net.

Not to mention it won't go completely bust. I could see a situation where Thorney prop it up so much (continually underwriting any raising), they install their own management. A little like Palla Pharma.


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## galumay (16 June 2020)

You are right Klogg, when I had a bit of a closer look, its unlikely they would go under, even if they lost a few of their disputes they would still probably be solvent.


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## peter2 (29 June 2020)

The DCG retail entitlement offer garnered 65% acceptance and the existing backers underwrote the rest. I'm using the July monthly comp to keep an eye on DCG. 

It's in my reversal watch list.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 June 2020)

peter2 said:


> It's in my reversal watch list.



reversal watch list? Are you backing out? Rear mirror investing?


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## peter2 (30 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> reversal watch list? Are you backing out? Rear mirror investing?




Who me?  Hardly ever,    I keep a few watch lists and wait for my price patterns to form. 






DCG will have to trade over 0.07 without going below 0.052 before I'm really interested. It sits in the watch list until it tells me to get set. 





While I'm waiting, it's good enough for a monthly comp selection.


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## peter2 (26 August 2020)

Every small cap portfolio has to have a few "dogs". This mangy canine has bitten me a couple of times but I'm hoping it'll finally see who been feeding it. I've posted enough about DCG's problems and I don't know if they'll continue. Management has been changed, bad projects written off with huge losses and a recent recapitalisation. This is one small cap position that I'll invest the minimum amount and use the 50% SL. 

I'm thinking that the recent increased gov't spending in major infrastructure projects all round the country should help civil engineering companies like DCG. Are the management team capable of turning DCG around? W'ell see.


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## Clansman (27 August 2020)

I


peter2 said:


> Every small cap portfolio has to have a few "dogs". This mangy canine has bitten me a couple of times but I'm hoping it'll finally see who been feeding it. I've posted enough about DCG's problems and I don't know if they'll continue. Management has been changed, bad projects written off with huge losses and a recent recapitalisation. This is one small cap position that I'll invest the minimum amount and use the 50% SL.
> 
> I'm thinking that the recent increased gov't spending in major infrastructure projects all round the country should help civil engineering companies like DCG. Are the management team capable of turning DCG around? W'ell see.
> 
> View attachment 108257




It's less than a dog. It's a flea haven. Drive down the street. You can always get a park.
There is no turn around story here.


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## peter2 (23 October 2020)

Were all experienced professionals here on ASF. We never get surprised by price movement. We plan our trade and execute our strategies without emotional attachment. So of course we're not excited by the recent BO-HR seen on the DCG price chart.  I'm here calmly planning my next action (pyramiding) on DCG.


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## peter2 (30 October 2020)

In order to cover past mistakes DCG is going to consolidate (10 to 1) the number of shares in early Nov. This makes them look better as insto's won't buy low priced bargain bin companies.

edit: Would be a certain winner in the Nov monthly comp as 0.06 turns into 0.60 in Nov.


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## Austwide (30 October 2020)

@peter2 just checked the rules, nothing covering consolidations, I think you may be the winner. LOL


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## Miner (30 October 2020)

peter2 said:


> In order to cover past mistakes DCG is going to consolidate (10 to 1) the number of shares in early Nov. This makes them look better as insto's won't buy low priced bargain bin companies.
> 
> edit: Would be a certain winner in the Nov monthly comp as 0.06 turns into 0.60 in Nov.



Good luck mate


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## Bazzi (9 November 2020)

DCG share price rose 818% today! Was on my watch list and missed it..... What happened here?!


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## Austwide (9 November 2020)

From @peter2  post a few above, this maybe DCG is going to consolidate (10 to 1) the number of shares in early Nov.


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## Miner (29 June 2021)

July tip for me DCG. Did not realize this thread was started by me back in 2009 when DCG just came into the market.
DNH.
I am hoping DCG will turn around in FY 22 with so many constructions works going on and with COVID restriction, probably miners are preferring DCG. 
In addition, DCG is diversifying and the insiders have put some hefty money to buy.
extension of $40 M capital facility directs more works.
Very promising presentation https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
FY 22 guidance is robust too.https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02381666-6A1035629?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02359044-6A1026741?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


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## peter2 (3 January 2022)

*DCG* is one of my old dogs. Not surprised it hasn't been one of over 400 companies selected in the CY22 comp. They keep winning contracts and still in business. Why aren't investors showing more demand. 

Maybe because they're all losing money, as the last cap raise was done at 0.40.


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## divs4ever (3 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> *DCG* is one of my old dogs. Not surprised it hasn't been one of over 400 companies selected in the CY22 comp. They keep winning contracts and still in business. Why aren't investors showing more demand.
> 
> Maybe because they're all losing money, as the last cap raise was done at 0.40.
> 
> View attachment 135149



 i hold DCG  ( and have for several  years ) ( 7 buys between January 2014 @ $1.975  until December 2019 @ 48 cents  and the next year it CONSOLIDATES   ten into one   and is NOW still well below the December 2019 price  so an easy 90% down on THAT price )

 i think Clansman calling it a 'flea-haven ' was much too generous  , but maybe he is just a very diplomatic person 

 but heck @ 32.5 cents ( post-consolidation ) maybe they can consolidate  again   , to make it look like they are an investment-worthy company   and not a short-sellers paradise


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## divs4ever (1 June 2022)

DECMIL GROWS ORDER BOOK TO $620M WITH
$137M OF NEW CONTRACT AWARDS AND
AFFIRMS FY22 EBITDA GUIDANCE
▪ Decmil wins three new contracts in Western Australia combined worth more than $100m
▪ The WA awards signify Decmil’s enhanced strategic progression into regional
infrastructure and selective construction markets which are higher margin market
segments of the broader construction sector
▪ Decmil also secures two new contracts in Victoria combined worth approximately $37m
▪ The Victorian awards highlight Decmil’s growing repeat revenue base with blue chip
clients
▪ Revenue and earnings from new contracts to be reflected in FY23 financial results
▪ FY22 EBITDA guidance retained, while FY22 revenue guidance revised, after Ryan Corner
and Crookwell wind farm project commencements delayed into FY23
Decmil Group Limited is pleased to announce it has secured five new contracts in Western Australia
and Victoria totalling approximately $137 million.
Decmil interim CEO Vin Vassallo said the contract awards marked an important step for the business
which increased its exposure to higher margin market segments and repeat revenue within its core
capabilities and geographic expertise.
“The South Hedland TAFE and Karratha Senior High School contracts follow our award earlier in the
year to construct the new Port Hedland Community Centre, which illustrates the increasingly strong
track record we are building in the construction of non-process infrastructure for the local Pilbara
community.” Mr Vassallo said.
“Our contract to deliver an apartment complex for highly-regarded property developer Stirling Capital
has followed a lengthy Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) relationship and provides a prudent and
strategic opportunity in the specialised luxury apartment construction market that also provides robust
margin opportunities while utilising the construction skills that Decmil possesses.”
“Additionally, our relationship with the Victorian Government is going from strength to strength and the
works we have secured in the state stem from our inclusion in contractor panels, which is conducive to
sustainable long-term growth.”
The award of these contracts takes Decmil’s order book to approximately $620 million at 31 May 2022
including contracted and preferred, with $218 million of new contracts won to date this calendar year.
Pundulmurra TAFE
The WA Department of Finance has awarded Decmil a $38 million contract to construct new training
workshops at the Pundulmurra TAFE campus in South Hedland.
The new training workshops encompass three new buildings; an industry-aligned heavy plant training
facility, an engineering trades training facility, and a new commercial cookery facility. The project will
commence later this month with the contract scheduled to be complete in the second half of 2023.
Florin Apartments
Decmil has secured a $37 million contract for the final design and construction of the Florin project in
the Perth suburb of Jolimont. The site is located within the Parkside Walk subdivision, a planned
residential community led by state government land agency DevelopmentWA, formerly Landcorp, in
partnership with the Town of Cambridge.
Florin comprises 63 luxury apartments over six levels and is being developed by Stirling Capital.
Decmil has been working closely with Stirling Capital under an Early Contractor Involvement (ECI)
phase over the past six (6) months.
Works on site will begin next month, with the contract scheduled for completion in second half of
2023.
Karratha Senior High School
Decmil has also won a $26 million contract from the WA Department of Finance to expand and upgrade
Karratha Senior High School. The works package includes the construction of a new building consisting
of workshops, classrooms, teacher’s study and support services.
Additionally, the Company will undertake extensions to the existing building in order to provide new
offices, meeting rooms, reprographics and student wellness rooms; as well as refurbishment and
extension of the existing metal workshop. Decmil has started initial site works and the contract is
scheduled to be completed in mid-2023.
Tranche 4 Structures Rehabilitation Package
Major Road Projects Victoria (MRPV) has awarded Decmil a $30 million contract for the Tranche 4
Structures Rehabilitation Package (North and South East).
The scope of works encompasses the renewal and maintenance of 11 bridge structures across
Melbourne’s North and South East, which will see critical infrastructure meet the growing needs of the
Melbourne road network, as well as extend the life span of current bridge assets for years to come.
This contract was previously preferred and having worked closely with MRPV over the past four months
has been now contracted. Work on site will commence immediately and expected completion of the
works is scheduled for the end of 2022.
This is the second project Decmil has been awarded as part of MRPV’s new Program Delivery
Approach, which has a strong focus on collaborative, panel-based procurement during the tender phase
leading to fixed price agreements to deliver works. In September 2021, Decmil secured an $89 million
contract with Major Road Projects Victoria to upgrade Barwon Heads Road in Victoria, with the works
on track to be complete in 2023.
Construction of Crossings in the Snowy District
Decmil has won a contract from the Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning in Victoria for
the design and construction of 10 crossings in the Snowy District.
This work will assist in providing safe and efficient access and egress to large tracts of public land to
enhance supporting fire management activities, including the movement of critical heavy firefighting
equipment whilst also improving public access. Works on this contract will start immediately with an
estimated completion by the end of April 2023. The current contract value is $6.5 million.
Updated Market Guidance
Further to the ASX announcement on 8 April 2022, projects at Ryan Corner and Crookwell have had
further delays due to the Client delays in gaining project permitting and approvals. These delays are
not attributable to Decmil. As a result, revenue in FY22 is now expected to be in the range of $400m to
$425m. However, Decmil reiterates its FY22 EBITDA guidance of between $-15m and -$10m.
Additionally, the vast majority of the revenue and earnings from the three contracts announced today
will be reflected in Decmil’s FY23 financial results.
This ASX release was authorised by the Decmil Group Limited Board.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i hold DCG

 this is down 87% for me  , maybe it will recover , but am not holding my breath


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## divs4ever (27 July 2022)

DECMIL UPDATES FY22 GUIDANCE
▪ Revised financial guidance (unaudited)
- Positive FY22 cashflow from operations of +$6 million
- Decmil’s first positive net operating cash flow since FY19
- FY22 net loss of $49 million before intangible asset write-downs
- Intangible asset write-down of $53 million (goodwill and deferred tax assets)
▪ Robust cash position of $39 million (30 June 2022) giving zero net debt
▪ Robust contracted order book of $596m (31 Dec 2021: $520m), with $472m to be executed in
FY23
▪ Ryan Corner windfarm mobilisation commenced following receipt of approvals and
agreement on revised commercial terms
Decmil Group Limited provides the following operational and financial update to its shareholders
following a comprehensive review undertaken by the Board and new management of current projects,
Decmil’s contracting terms, and legacy balance sheet valuations.
Operating conditions have stabilised since Decmil’s April 2022 market update and guidance revision,
with contracts having been renegotiated and the Company adopting a revised approach to contract
tendering. However, the Board has decided to reset the values of several balance sheet items, many
on legacy items, to reflect current values and the likelihood of being able to crystalise or utilise the value
of those assets.
Decmil CEO Rod Heale said the statutory accounting result, while significant and disappointing,
addressed many of the Company’s legacy issues, and the Company’s growing order book and robust
cash balance positioned Decmil for a substantial improvement in FY23.
“While the net loss is large, it reflects a very difficult period for Decmil through the COVID pandemic. I
am however confident our improved cash flow and robust cash position will provide a solid foundation
for FY23,” Mr Heale said.
“The Board and management have taken a cautious and prudent assessment of various asset values
and contract positions. After going through the process, I am confident the Company is starting the new
financial year with a very strong order book and a cash and liquidity position that enables the company
to execute that order book.
“We are heading into FY23 with a selective and low-risk approach to tendering new work, ensuring we
can maintain our strengthening margins and cost efficiencies in the current environment.”

Decmil has reviewed its contract claim balances, which contain reliance on claims against certain clients
and subcontractors. After assessing each claim individually, Decmil has decided to adjust the balance
of claims for the financial year ended 30 June 2022 by revising their value down by $23 million, which
accounts for the variance to revenue and EBITDA guidance. Any eventual success of the claims will
result in cash inflows to Decmil.
Additionally, in preparing its FY22 financial accounts, Decmil has reviewed certain intangible assets on
its balance sheet (deferred tax assets and goodwill).
The goodwill balance of Decmil’s intangible assets no longer reflects Decmil’s current market
capitalisation. While the Board’s strong view is that the company is highly undervalued, the Board has
considered it prudent to impair the goodwill balance by $30 million, from $75 million to $45 million.
Over the past seven years, Decmil has incurred significant tax losses and now carries a tax loss carryforward balance of approximately $190 million, inclusive of an FY22 estimate. In light of this substantial
bank of available tax losses, Decmil will derecognise its deferred tax assets of $23 million to zero at 30
June 2022.
The decision to write down the value of these intangible assets (non-cash) and the balance of contract
claims will cause a significant accounting loss for Decmil in FY22 of $102 million.
30 June 2022 Cash/Debt Position
Pleasingly, the Company generated a substantial improvement in net operating cash flow over FY22,
with a net operating cash inflow of $12 million for H2 FY22, compared to a net operating cash outflow
of $6 million for H1 FY22. The Company is confident it can continue this positive cash flow generation
during FY23. The 30 June 2022 cash balance was some $39 million with debt of some $39 million
leaving a net debt position of $0. This is an improvement from 30 June 2021 where the net debt position
was $8 million.
The non-cash, intangible asset value write-downs above are not expected to impact Decmil’s current
financial accreditations that underpin the Company’s ability to win new work in FY23 and beyond.

Strong Order Book
As at 30 June 2022, Decmil’s contracted work in hand is $596 million. Approximately $472 million of
this contracted work relates to revenue expected to be delivered in FY23. Decmil’s focus in the next 12
months is to efficiently deliver this work for clients to the highest standards and generate tendered
margins. Decmil has capacity to secure additional projects, but intends to take a highly-selective
approach to new contracts over the next 12 months.
Management has renegotiated several contracts since March 2022 and certain contracts have been
reset to account for the impacts of COVID-related supply chain delays and price escalation. As a result
of those negotiations, the level of the contracted work in hand and contracted margin of that work has
improved.
Ryan Corner
Decmil is pleased to provide an update on the Ryan Corner project. After several delays in the
commencement of the project, largely as a result of project permitting and approvals the Client was
required to obtain, Decmil has commenced works on site and has reached an agreement regarding
revised commercial terms to account for the delays to the Company. Decmil announced the award of
the Ryan Corner contract on 18 November 2020.
This ASX release was authorised by the Decmil Group Limited Board.

=======================================================================================================

DYOR

i hold DCG

has been a mangy flea-bag for me

not as bad as BLY but you could just about walk between ( without needing a cut lunch )


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