# Does anyone mind analysing a graph for me?



## voyz (6 May 2009)

gday

im new to the game and have been trading jbh now for awhile and was wondering if someone could analyse there graph for me and tell me there thoughts on where its going trend wise.
i dunno how to use indicators or anything like stochastics or macd which ive read here about and wanna know how i can use them for this company. its basically the only thing i trade and have been trading cfd's now for around 8 months.
others i have traded are fmg, bhp, lnc and bxb.
i try and jsut play the ups n downs of the day and try to hold as short as possible but would like to learn how to hold for longer by analysing the graph an try to find a direction. at the moment i can see a long term up trend but has hit its highest peak that its ever had and thinking it might turn.
had a short on today and missed out on a big chunk becoz i bailed to early. could have made 5 times as much.

anyway anyone wanna give me their analysis of them?
cheers
voy


----------



## Mr J (6 May 2009)

Post it up.

Thought:
Don't get too caught up over missing most of the move. Traders do not deal in perfection. It is important to try and maximise what we take, but we also have to be realistic.


----------



## voyz (7 May 2009)

ok i know how ide post up the graph but where do i find an image of it to post up? i use web iress as a trading platform can i sumhow save the graph as an image and post here?
jb hifi daily graph
JBH


----------



## Joe Blow (7 May 2009)

voyz said:


> ok i know how ide post up the graph but where do i find an image of it to post up? i use web iress as a trading platform can i sumhow save the graph as an image and post here?




There's a thread here on how to post charts: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6530


----------



## voyz (7 May 2009)

thankyou, just needed to jknow where to source the graphs.
chart is daily over 1 year. 
two days ago it hits its peak at 3 95 and has now fell to a low of 1205 with the market goin up and no bad announcements. just a sell off to take profits?
can anyone see any patterns or give me an idea of how to use indicators with this stok?


----------



## beamstas (7 May 2009)

Ill have a look when i get home

Have you tried in the ASX Stock chat area of this forum?
You might find a thread on JB HIFI


----------



## kam75 (7 May 2009)

press Alt+PrtSc.  Then go to any image editor like Paint and just press paste.  Save as png.  Mate if I can make a few suggestions - 

1. learn to use Volume and OBV with price.  And perhaps a Moving Average. Forget about other indicators.

2. trading is an individual art so what works for one person, may not work for another.  Different people see different things on charts.

3. Ultimately it comes down to how you manage your money and how you manage individual trade risk.


----------



## beamstas (7 May 2009)

kam75 said:


> press Alt+PrtSc.  Then go to any image editor like Paint and just press paste.  Save as png.  Mate if I can make a few suggestions -
> 
> 1. learn to use Volume and OBV with price.  And perhaps a Moving Average. Forget about other indicators.
> 
> ...




Try just print screen, i think it does the same thing 

There are programs such as ZScreen (what i use), if you are going to be uploading alot of images.

What is OBV?

Cheers
Brad


----------



## kam75 (7 May 2009)

voyz said:


> thankyou, just needed to jknow where to source the graphs.




This stock has pulled back after testing the former 14.00 highs made back in sept 08.  OBV has been rising since feb 09 implying buyers are in control of this stock.  No entry for long or short for me at the moment.  But if I was to look for something to buy for the longer term, I'd be interested to buy on a break and close above the 14.00 level.  But not before!  Swing rule target then could be as high as 21.00.


----------



## kam75 (7 May 2009)

OBV = On Balance Volume.  Shows buying or selling pressure.  Can at times be a leading indicator!


----------



## beamstas (7 May 2009)

Take a look at that double bottom swing support!


----------



## voyz (7 May 2009)

kam75 said:


> This stock has pulled back after testing the former 14.00 highs made back in sept 08.  OBV has been rising since feb 09 implying buyers are in control of this stock.  No entry for long or short for me at the moment.  But if I was to look for something to buy for the longer term, I'd be interested to buy on a break and close above the 14.00 level.  But not before!  Swing rule target then could be as high as 21.00.




cheers for the responses. why would u buy if it breaks 14? i dont understand, does it set a new low? i have been buyin an sellin this stok as often as i can jsut trying to make money on the daily ups n downs trying to sell as soon as possible with a decent profit for fear of it reversing wether it be short or long. i did not see it goiung down 2 dollars in two days. and i had a short on too  but bailed  thinking it would go bak up lol. now im bak in on a long trade.


----------



## skc (7 May 2009)

voyz said:


> cheers for the responses. why would u buy if it breaks 14? i dont understand, does it set a new low? i have been buyin an sellin this stok as often as i can jsut trying to make money on the daily ups n downs trying to sell as soon as possible with a decent profit for fear of it reversing wether it be short or long. i did not see it goiung down 2 dollars in two days. and i had a short on too  but bailed  thinking it would go bak up lol. now im bak in on a long trade.




There are a few things jump out on this stock.
- $14 is key resistance. It was the Aug 08 high as well.
- The last 2 days are bearish on high volume. 
- $12 seem to offer short term support.
- Uptrend since Nov 08 is still in place.

Different schools of traders will trade this differently, however. Some may buy a break out of $14. Some may short at $14 thinking the resistance may hold and push prices back (as is this case). Some may short if the stock breaks below $12. Some may go long thinking the $12 support will hold. Some may look for a head and shoulder formation when stock moves up and fail to reach $14 again...

Combine with proper risk management, any of these may make money. But none will gurantee you make money on the next trade.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2009)

I must admit I haven't bothered to look at the charts name, so I'll put in my tuppence worth on it purely as a chart.

It is always worthwhile looking at a chart from a distance.

It is in a short term downtrend on higher volume, so I'd guess it will continue down or trend sideways.

The most common support resistance points are at 10.

I'd look at it at 10.

gg


----------



## beamstas (7 May 2009)

Both the rising wedge and the bearish divergeance are signs that the recent high may not be penetrated in the near future..

Lets have a look at the two most recent bars...


VOLUME ANALYSIS COMMENTARY:

Up-thrusts are designed to catch stops and to mislead as many traders as possible.  

They are normally seen after there has been weakness in the background. The market makers know that the market is weak, so the price is marked up to catch stops, encourage traders to go long in a weak market, AND panic traders that are already Short into covering their very good position.This upthrust bar is at high volume.This is a sure sign of weakness. One may even seriously consider ending the Longs AND be ready to reverse Also note that A wide spread down-bar that appears immediately after any up-thrust, tends to confirm the weakness (the market makers are locking in traders into poor positions).

With the appearance of an upthrust you should certainly be paying attention to your trade AND your stops. On many upthrusts you will find that the market will 'test' almost immediately.A wide spread down bar following a Upthrust Bar.

This confirms weakness. The Smart Money is locking in Traders into poor positions
Also here the volume is high( Above Average).This is a sure sign of weakness. 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Timmy (7 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> VOLUME ANALYSIS COMMENTARY:
> 
> Up-thrusts are designed to catch stops and to mislead as many traders as possible.
> ... sure sign of weakness.




Brad, is this a quote from Tradeguider software or the Master the Mkts book?


----------



## cutz (8 May 2009)

G'Day Brad,

You've mentioned that market makers can push the market around to take out stops at obvious levels but is that possible on the aussie market considering we don't have market makers (on stocks) or are you referring to prop traders?


----------



## beamstas (8 May 2009)

I've just copied and pasted from Amibroker
Obviously not my own words  (i don't speak like a robot do i?)


----------



## sails (8 May 2009)

cutz said:


> G'Day Brad,
> 
> You've mentioned that market makers can push the market around to take out stops at obvious levels but is that possible on the aussie market considering we don't have market makers (on stocks) or are you referring to prop traders?




Cutz, although we don't have official MMs for Oz stocks, there are some very deep pockets around.  Never under estimate their ability...


----------



## cutz (8 May 2009)

You're right about that, i've been riding (or trying to ) MQG all morning, and the depth certainly looks interesting, moderate parcels coming and going, trying to make sense of it all.

EDIT>>BTW Sails, i've been trading DITM options but looking at the MQG stock depth. Practicing intraday directional but not comfortable with the stock due to the sparse volumes in the order book most of the time.


----------



## peter2 (8 May 2009)

If you are going long and short without a plan then it doesn't matter what anyone else things about the chart (or the stock). 

What you must do is make sure your average losing trade is smaller than your average win. 

In this way you might survive long enough to learn what you need to know.


----------



## sails (8 May 2009)

cutz said:


> You're right about that, i've been riding (or trying to ) MQG all morning, and the depth certainly looks interesting, moderate parcels coming and going, trying to make sense of it all.
> 
> EDIT>>BTW Sails, i've been trading DITM options but looking at the MQG stock depth. Practicing intraday directional but not comfortable with the stock due to the sparse volumes in the order book most of the time.




I would have thought there would be a lot of slippage with DITMs - and especially something as illiquid as MQG options.  Haven't checked them for a while now, but was really put off due to the awful liquidity.  Have you looked at turbo warrants or CFDs if you are only day trading?  Although, options are good in that they provide a guaranteed stop loss and one can do some repair strategies if they go wrong to further minimize the risk.

Oops - might be getting a bit off topic here...


----------



## cutz (8 May 2009)

peter2 said:


> If you are going long and short without a plan then it doesn't matter what anyone else things about the chart (or the stock).
> 
> What you must do is make sure your average losing trade is smaller than your average win.
> 
> In this way you might survive long enough to learn what you need to know.





G'Day Peter,

Are you talking me?


----------



## cutz (8 May 2009)

sails said:


> I would have thought there would be a lot of slippage with DITMs - and especially something as illiquid as MQG options.  Haven't checked them for a while now, but was really put off due to the awful liquidity.  Have you looked at turbo warrants or CFDs if you are only day trading?  Although, options are good in that they provide a guaranteed stop loss and one can do some repair strategies if they go wrong to further minimize the risk.
> 
> Oops - might be getting a bit off topic here...




Hello again Sails,

MQG are OK at the moment, i guess it's due to IV settling down a little, i'm getting fills at close to intrinsic, (on the calls).
I guess i'm stuck in a comfort zone with options, it's also nice going short without hassles.


----------



## peter2 (8 May 2009)

I was replying to the thread starter, voyz, who seems to be trading this both ways already. If he doesn't know what is going to happen next, welcome to the world of trading. 

You don't have to know where price is going, to be profitable in the long run. 

If he continues to trades with good risk control then he might realise that you don't need to know all the TA stuff to be profitable.


----------



## beamstas (8 May 2009)

peter2 said:


> If he continues to trades with good risk control then he might realise that you don't need to know all the TA stuff to be profitable.




T/A Is just an excuse to enter the market

Someone who uses Technical analysis has any better chance of predicting a price movement compared to someone who uses fundamental analysis.

The only reason alot of people prefer T/A is that is gives a logical point where the analysis is wrong


----------



## voyz (8 May 2009)

very happy atm my sell order for my long trade just got filled on todays high so now to start again but wether to  go long or short i dunno atm coz we are in the middle of the highs n lows of the last 4 days. seems to be creeping bak after the high so hopefully falls down to my last average and jump in again. and then do it again and again. 

also.. thanks for any advice given, was lookin for ways of learnin T/A on a stok i have been trading over the last few months fairly succesfully with examples of how other people would analyse it.
helps to watch and learn

cheers


----------



## tech/a (8 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> T/A Is just an excuse to enter the market
> 
> Someone who uses Technical analysis has any better chance of predicting a price movement compared to someone who uses fundamental analysis.
> 
> The only reason alot of people prefer T/A is that is gives a logical point where the analysis is wrong





Where do you get this rubbish?


----------



## beamstas (8 May 2009)

Was meant to say no better chance

I use T/a
Why?
Because it helps me feel like i can predict a price move
But i still can't!


----------



## tech/a (8 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Was meant to say no better chance
> 
> I use T/a
> Why?
> ...




Anticipate --Grasshopper---anticipate!!


----------



## beamstas (8 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Anticipate --Grasshopper---anticipate!!




I will try


----------



## voyz (11 May 2009)

any more opinions on which way its travelling seems to have turned to go up again? will it break 14?


----------



## peter2 (11 May 2009)

Now it seems that you are asking for advice. Sorry we can't do that.

As you are already into it, just keep your losses small and may your wins be much bigger.


----------



## MRC & Co (11 May 2009)

peter2 said:


> Now it seems that you are asking for advice. Sorry we can't do that.




Yeh, or how about, learn to read a chart or keep this to the individual stock thread.  I'm surprised it's been allowed to survive so long without being copied into the thread for this stock.


----------

