# CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia



## stefan (17 August 2004)

*CBA*

Wow, what happened? I once predicted a pullback on CBA but I didn't really follow it. Down 3.6% today!

Happy trading

Stefan


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## GreatPig (17 August 2004)

*Re: CBA*

Stefan,

As I indicated in the reversal pattern thread yesterday, CBA seemed to have formed a double top. All it needed was a drop down through the support line at around $30.80 and that would be it.

Seems to have done that now, with the current price being $29.77.

Cheers,
GP


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## ghotib (17 August 2004)

*Re: CBA*

There were announcements on Friday (after the market closed?) that NTA for the last 4 years has been revised down. Would that start a selloff?


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## stefan (17 August 2004)

*Re: CBA*

I'd say investors are very cautious with banks after the NAB correction. The slightest hint of trouble leads to a selloff. Anyway, I guess it won't be all too bad for now. Depends on what follows...


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## stefan (17 August 2004)

*Re: CBA*

Well, as far as I can see, the reason for the pullback is that CBA has gone ex dividend. Didn't realize that earlier today. So just forget about it. Nothing bad had happened. They are paying $1.04 in dividend and so the stock has pulled back that much. 

I therefore re initiate my short term buy for NAB as well...

Happy trading

Stefan


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## clowboy (17 December 2004)

*CBA*

Hey,

Any thoughts on CBA or the banking sector in general?


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## Bingo (18 December 2004)

*Re: CBA*

I think that the banking sector will find it hard to maintain its' profit growth. However, the yields are good and profit and dividends will still rise albeit at a slower rate, so unless interest rates have a significant rise they still seem to be excellent to hold. That is you receive a good fully franked dividend and a steady capital gain.

It is interesting to follow the paper reports. Not long ago it was all about the banking sector has had its day and it was time to sell. The bank share prices are up about 7% since then and now I read in the Financial Review to-day that bank shares may rise because as the weight of NCP reduces in the S&P the banks weights will increase and therefore the institutions will need to buy the banks to maintain their weights. This is obiously true of any sector other than NCP.

All in all I am holding and will continue to do so. 

I hold ANZ,CBA,STG and WBC. I also hold the unlisted IMB (Illawarra Bld Soc).

Bingo


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## jyotirmoy (20 June 2005)

*Re: Company or individual?*

below are the links for the common wealth bank which has the
daily/week/month/quater behaviour
please do check

to have a clear image of the link  go to view select text size and select largest 
http://routeinfosys.com/ex/CBADAILY.jpg
DAILY AVERAGE LINE

http://routeinfosys.com/ex/CBAWEEK.jpg
BUY INDICATION SINCE 18 JAN 2004 AT 30.79$


http://routeinfosys.com/ex/CBAMONTH.jpg
MONTHELY LINE BEHAVIOUR AS TO WHERE THEY STAND I KNOW THE WORKING HOW LOW IT
CAN GO WHEN FALLS FROM THE HIGH


http://routeinfosys.com/ex/CBAMONTHEXCEL.jpg
MONTHELY AVERAGE BEHAVIOUR SINCE DAY ONE WHERE I KNOW LONG TERM BUY AND SELL


http://routeinfosys.com/ex/CBAQUATER.jpg
QUATER LINE BEHAVIOUR


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## RichKid (20 June 2005)

*Re: Company or individual?*



			
				jyotirmoy said:
			
		

> below are the links for the common wealth bank which has the
> daily/week/month/quater behaviour
> please do check
> 
> ...




Thanks for those links mate but I'm too thick to figure it all out, could you please explain it to me please? THanks!


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## dj_ajay (27 June 2005)

*Re: CBA*

I think you will be safe with CBA and ANZ.


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## DTM (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*

Took a trade on CBA with calls when it hit my support line yesterday and gave a nice 30 cents move at the end of the day.  It doesn't look like a strong movement up so will look at getting out today.


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## DTM (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*

And sold out catching a 60 cents move.  Gotta love the short term stuff.

Might miss more of an upmove but things are so choppy.


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## DTM (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*

Another view of CBA from a different chart.

CBA seems to have hit long term resistance of $37.75.  Can it break through?  I doubt it but will wait for tomorrow/next week to confirm this before going short on it.  

Having problems posting the chart.  Will do it later.


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## Julia (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*

I like the banks.  As Bingo said, there's steady growth, good income and franking.  I have ANZ, CBA, MBL, plus the smaller but nonetheless good yielding Bendigo Bank, Suncorp and Wide Bay.


Julia


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## Rockon2 (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*

DTM..  

did the same trick with wbc today,, i'm happy


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## DTM (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> I like the banks.  As Bingo said, there's steady growth, good income and franking.  I have ANZ, CBA, MBL, plus the smaller but nonetheless good yielding Bendigo Bank, Suncorp and Wide Bay.
> 
> 
> Julia




Banks are looking toppy to me right now and won't be suprised if they drop a lot this month.  It also feels like that banks have been rerated downwards by institutions the way some of them have been selling.


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## DTM (1 September 2005)

*Re: CBA*



			
				Rockon2 said:
			
		

> DTM..
> 
> did the same trick with wbc today,, i'm happy




Well done, nice ranging movement there.


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## Kauri (3 March 2007)

Thought this was worth a short today...


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## Fab (9 April 2007)

I like the bank too specially using warrants as leverage. You get all the above mentioned plus leverage.
My only issue at the moment is that I have some CBAIM4 (macquarie issue) and even thought the dividend was due on the 05/04/07 it has not been paid to my account yet. How come an issuer can defer dividend payment, it is not the only time it happens to me with macquarie bank. ABN amro and other warrant issuer all pay on time


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## nevieboy (10 April 2007)

Fab said:


> I like the bank too specially using warrants as leverage. You get all the above mentioned plus leverage.
> My only issue at the moment is that I have some CBAIM4 (macquarie issue) and even thought the dividend was due on the 05/04/07 it has not been paid to my account yet. How come an issuer can defer dividend payment, it is not the only time it happens to me with macquarie bank. ABN amro and other warrant issuer all pay on time




Hi Fab.Did you receive your dividend payment yet?
I also am waiting. Nothing as yet.
Cheers Nevieboy.


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## josjes (17 January 2008)

What's going on with CBA ? It's been on a down trend without a pause since last week (probably 8 days in a row). Compared with the other 3 big banks it has underperformed substantially. They all made a bounce in the last 2 days, but CBA is just refusing to join them. I am thinking CBA was the most overvalued of the 4 is that why it's been harshly dealt with ? Or perhaps the market figures out that it has got more skeleton in the closet by the Centro fiasco ?? Anyone knows the story behind ?


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## The Mint Man (17 January 2008)

Who knows mate, in a market like this.
Look at MQG, perfectly good company that has even said that they have hardly, if any, exposure to the US credit crisis but has that saved them, No! If your in for the longer term probably best to ride it out, good companies like this don't stay down forever and will in all likelyhood come back strong once the market/s get this period out of the system.

Cheers


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## ROE (18 January 2008)

I'm skeptical with Aussies banks at a moment because they are too clean with sub-prime .... there maybe be some sub-prime hidden some where in deep dark corner of their book that no one uncover it yet .

Every other bank got hit except aussie banks


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## josjes (30 January 2008)

All three other banks are green and up 1-1.5%. Except  CBA again down 1.5%. If anyone knows about rumours in the market , I guess they have some skeleton in closet with sub-prime write-down ?


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## ShareIt (31 January 2008)

josjes said:


> All three other banks are green and up 1-1.5%. Except  CBA again down 1.5%. If anyone knows about rumours in the market , I guess they have some skeleton in closet with sub-prime write-down ?




Not sure, but my indicators are showing a possible reversal.... spinning top, positive divergence on the macd... could see an up day tomorrow


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## kerosam (31 January 2008)

Hi shareit,

thanks for your thoughts.

I looked at the daily & weekly chart (see attached) and still find trending down. Daily chart support was 48.70 but breached today (though she closed higher than 48.70)... weekly chart shows next support could be 46.82... & a possible bounce off that 46.82.


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## Awesomandy (31 January 2008)

Just a general reminder... be very careful if you are trying to catch a faling knife. 

Although, fundamentally, I really can't see any major changes as of recent times to suggest why CBA should underperform so much when compared to its peers. I think some value is starting to appear.


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## Bill M (31 January 2008)

I just thought I'd add a comment about CBA. I bought CBA in 1996 for $10.40 a share. In all those years they have paid me handsome dividends and I have never sold. Today as you people know they are $49.40 per share. 

Well that is very nice dividends for 12 years and my share price has gone up 460%.

The only thing I can say is that at these prices CBA is a good deal. I've seen many corrections and the Asian crisis since I bought them and they still keep producing bigger and and better than ever.

At today's lows of around $47 odd I nearly bought in again but then it bounced upwards and closed up in the green. I buy when it is ridiculously low.

As a long term investment CBA is one of the best companies on the ASX. Don't worry about short term charts and falling knifes CBA will always give you your dividends and perform in the long run. My personal opinion only but the facts are there just check the prices I bought on 27/05/1996. I will NEVER sell them, good luck.


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## ShareIt (1 February 2008)

kerosam said:


> Hi shareit,
> 
> thanks for your thoughts.
> 
> I looked at the daily & weekly chart (see attached) and still find trending down. Daily chart support was 48.70 but breached today (though she closed higher than 48.70)... weekly chart shows next support could be 46.82... & a possible bounce off that 46.82.




Well what do you know... CBA opened 2.5% up.... guess the indicators proved right  Overall, the trend is still down, but I look to make trades off 2days holding.


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## kengaikl (2 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> I just thought I'd add a comment about CBA. I bought CBA in 1996 for $10.40 a share. In all those years they have paid me handsome dividends and I have never sold. Today as you people know they are $49.40 per share.
> 
> Well that is very nice dividends for 12 years and my share price has gone up 460%.
> 
> ...




Your the only person that make any sense in this forum. Everyone has such a short term view of things. People like you are the ones who make serious money on the share market not those who just look at trand lines or what ever. If all investors were like you there wouldnt be all this market turmoil. Fear creates fear right??


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## Bill M (3 February 2008)

kengaikl said:


> Your the only person that make any sense in this forum. Everyone has such a short term view of things. People like you are the ones who make serious money on the share market not those who just look at trand lines or what ever. If all investors were like you there wouldnt be all this market turmoil. Fear creates fear right??




Thank you for your kind words kengaikl. I just thought I would further add that when I bought the original parcel the fully franked dividends were about 6%. Over the years the dividends went up every year. In the last 12 Months the CBA dividend was $2.56 per share, that is a fully franked dividend of 24.2% on the *original* outlay. To me that's what sharemarket investing is all about building wealth by buying great companies, cheers.


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## nitpra (3 February 2008)

Past is past. At the moment there seems to be some fear about cba. One broker has mentioned cba will write off some bad load (dont know how much )
when report in few weeks time. In the current environment anything regarding  subprime there is a fear. For short trading (2-3 days ) it looks ok but again dont get caught, the announcement may appear any time.


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## vishalt (3 February 2008)

CBA reports in 2 weeks so we will see. 

Who is the mysterious broker who said that? I've been also suspecting that our banks have been having it too good that there was something fishy happening. 

Anyway if CBA does get crushed its a bargain, massive dividend + it really is blowing away the competition posed by the other four majors.


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## nitpra (3 February 2008)

Deutsche Bank:The broker is retaining Hold only because the stock has fallen 18%. This is still a 10% premium to peers and that's a worry. Funding costs and lower wealth management returns are a problem, and increasing bad loans loom as a significant issue. target falls from $54.00 to $51.50. -


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## vishalt (3 February 2008)

What increasing bad loans? Where did Deutsche get that from? Maybe they are just jealous because their own stock got hammered from 120E to 70E or something.


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## The Mint Man (6 February 2008)

hey guys,
May be a silly question (had a few) but I was just on the CBA site, http://www.commbank.com.au/, and something caught my eye. 
In is its page 'tab' (for you tech heads, also known as the 'global metre' I believe) it says *'Commonwealth Bank Group'*.
Is this something new or have they always refered to themself as this??? Sounds very Macquarie-esq to me!!!
They will probably even change their stock code to CBG soon too:

Anyone care to comment?

Cheers

EDIT: dont hold, just curious.


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## Bill M (13 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> I just thought I'd add a comment about CBA. I bought CBA in 1996 for $10.40 a share. In all those years they have paid me handsome dividends and I have never sold. Today as you people know they are $49.40 per share.
> 
> Well that is very nice dividends for 12 years and my share price has gone up 460%.
> 
> ...



Well CBA reported today, increased profits and dividends and at todays prices with dividends to come I bought some more.


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## nomore4s (13 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> Well CBA reported today, increased profits and dividends and at todays prices with dividends to come I bought some more.




Will I'm no fundie, I'm a bit surprised at the markets reaction to todays results. Okay results I would've thought considering the current sp weakness and whats been happening to the banks overseas.

I do note though, todays vol is already high for the first hour of trading - nearly as much vol as yesterday already. So while there appears to be sellers around there is also someone willing to buy, will be interesting to see where the close is.

May purchase some more for my long term portfolio as well.


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## dhukka (13 February 2008)

Obviously the Banking sector is weighing on the market today, CBA's result being a big part of it.  They managed to squeeze out eps growth on a fully diluted cash basis of just *3%*. Obviously the market was hoping for better. 

As expected provisions are on the rise, as shown below, however nowhere near the levels of US banks. 



Frank D said:


> While you guys are sitting on your hands, i'm back into banking stocks this week, bought ANZ , WBC, and picked up CBA @ 51.70 today....




Maybe sitting on your hands wasn't a bad strategy afterall Frank?


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## numbercruncher (13 February 2008)

I think that was a pretty tame response to a crap result, wait till the masses start defaulting on mortgages and business loans, then itll get Interesting.

Its a funny old world when you earn alot more in deposit with the bank than as a shareholder, and risk free


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## ROE (13 February 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> I think that was a pretty tame response to a crap result, wait till the masses start defaulting on mortgages and business loans, then itll get Interesting.
> 
> Its a funny old world when you earn alot more in deposit with the bank than as a shareholder, and risk free




it's already started  at least in the US

http://business.theage.com.au/subprime-crisis-spreads-to-prime-loans/20080212-1rue.html


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## TMC19 (13 February 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> I think that was a pretty tame response to a crap result, wait till the masses start defaulting on mortgages and business loans, then itll get Interesting.
> 
> Its a funny old world when you earn alot more in deposit with the bank than as a shareholder, and risk free




Talk about spreading negativity!!  Bloody hell...

You think shipping 7% of the stock price was a tame respones to coming in a little bit short on consensus numbers.  CBA's first-half cash PROFIT rose 8 per cent to a record $2.385 billion, Ok so the shakedown in markets and the higher cost of borrowing from credit markets shaved $100 million from its expected pre-tax result.  Its not going broke anytime soon and its not even a drop in the ocean to the write downs the American banks had to make.    

As regards the masses defaulting on mortgages and business loans - mate your dreaming.  This is an Australian bank that has iterated numerous times that it has no exposure to subprime, it has openly admitted that there will be higher costs in borrowing going forward but to state that masses are going to start defaulting on their mortgages is pure rubbish.

If this is the extent to which the biggest Australian bank has suffered during the subprime mess that has plagued the US banks then happy bloody days.

I'm sure your negativity would be welcome in other threads.


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## nomore4s (13 February 2008)

TMC19 said:


> Talk about spreading negativity!!  Bloody hell...
> 
> You think shipping 7% of the stock price was a tame respones to coming in a little bit short on consensus numbers.  CBA's first-half cash PROFIT rose 8 per cent to a record $2.385 billion, Ok so the shakedown in markets and the higher cost of borrowing from credit markets shaved $100 million from its expected pre-tax result.  Its not going broke anytime soon and its not even a drop in the ocean to the write downs the American banks had to make.
> 
> ...




lol, You'll get used to NC he's a bear through and through.

I am surprised at the sell down today, considering the stock is already well off its highs of a couple of months ago on the back of the sub prime mess. I would have thought prices might have dipped a little today, but 6.5% surprises me. But please bear in mind that I have a very limited understanding of Fundimentals.

Maybe the market has just been too used to the results of the bullmarket of the last few years. Things not looking good if any of the other banks actually release negative eps growth now.

From a chartists point of view most, if not all the major banks have now broken long term supports which doesn't bode well for the financials or the market in general.

With alot of companies now struggling to re-finance and cash flows tightening up the good times could well be over, especially with the market now being alot more critical of companies results.


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## justjohn (13 February 2008)

CBA isn't the only bank going backwards lately .Along with CBA , SGB & MQG reached 52 week lows today


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## oldblue (13 February 2008)

CBA's strength is its massive retail deposit base.
I'm not rushing in just yet but I'm picking that there'll be some good buying in this stock in the weeks/months ahead.  

Disc: Hold ANZ/NBA but not CBA.


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## Bill M (13 February 2008)

A lot of you are thinking short term. I always ask myself where will CBA be in 5 years time? I think the smart ones know he answer.

So here we have the biggest and best bank in Australia posting an increased profit and an increased dividend in probably the hardest times since the Government sold it off but the profits are still there.

What I don't really understand is that the same people that were buying at $62 ex Div are now selling at $47 cum Div............... In my books, its "Absolute Blockheads".:headshake

Up to you guys and gals, I'll hold and collect my *original* (read earlier posts) outlay 24% dividends and current dividend of 5.5%.... oh yes and tax paid. My dividend is 8% grossed up, sorry the best deposit rate is only 7% so that doesn't run true.

Good luck with your investments, I'm happy happy happy.


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## cuttlefish (13 February 2008)

I'm short at the moment so don't mind if it slumps a bit further.  Technically it looks like its fallen off a cliff today so tomorrow will be interesting.  In the current credit climate I would have thought there are real risks to the banks both in terms of increased default rates, but also a slowdown in the housing market and possible margins squeezes as rates climb  (not sure if the 'extra' rate rise on top of the RBA rises is just a blatant grab at profits, or an indication that things aren't as rosy as they'd like).


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## vishalt (13 February 2008)

The selloff is a great accumulation bargain. 

Analysts always change their excuses and sentiment and defer market directions to what they feel like so fund managers get in more at lower prices. 

$1.13 dividend @ $46?

Yes plz.


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## dhukka (13 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> Up to you guys and gals, I'll hold and collect my *original* (read earlier posts) outlay 24% dividends and current dividend of 5.5%.... oh yes and tax paid. My dividend is 8% grossed up, sorry the best deposit rate is only 7% so that doesn't run true.




Good for you Bill, it must be nice to sit and collect a 24% dividend yield on your intial outlay. I agree over the long term you can expect to continue to reap a nice dividend stream from the banks. 



> So here we have the biggest and best bank in Australia posting an increased profit and an increased dividend in probably the hardest times since the Government sold it off but the profits are still there.




However I think this stretching it a bit. The eighties nearly took the likes of Westpac down. All the banks were still in the process of repairing themselves when CBA listed on the ASX in 1991, which incidentally was right at the point of the last Australian recession. As you can see from the chart below, the banks drastically improved their balance sheets in the mid to late 90's. 

Sure you could make the argument that funding has not been this restrictive since the eighties however this is hardly the toughest environment CBA has faced...at least not yet. 

Also, looking at the graph below you can see that impaired assets have just started to tick up slightly and they will continue to go up. Even if Australia avoids a recession, you can expect that ratio to rise back to the spike level we saw in 2001, the peak of last credit cycle in terms of bad debts. 

It's easy to forget what happens at cycle turning points, last time round the banks were well capitalized and absorbed higher levels of impaired assets well. At it's peak, news of bankruptcies happened every week and usually one or more of the major banks had exposure. 

That is not to say this time round will be a repeat of 2001, it could be milder or much worse, but we are not hearing about elevated rates of corporate defaults that you usually associate with credit cycle peaks apart from the odd mob of hedge fund idiots that leveraged up too far. Again, at least not yet. 

However you can't overlook two basic things that are happening now with the banks. Profits are being squeezed and provisions are being raised. IMHO we are much closer to the beginning of this process than the end. Therefore, even though all the major banks are now yielding over *6.0%* based on 2008 forecast dividends, I don't think you need to rush in and buy the banks just yet, you'll get plenty of opportunity down the road at attractive prices.


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## numbercruncher (13 February 2008)

I think a household debt graph would compliment that 

Worth pointing out that household sizes have been dropping as well 





Looks like Peak Debt to me  Might be why the Gov has been urging people to slow spending and save ?


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## moneymajix (13 February 2008)

Some quotes from the Eureka Report today. 



> CBA is one of the best-protected banks against the credit crunch with 54% of its funding coming from retail and business deposits. Other banks can be expected to face even bigger increases in funding costs.






> The market took a dim view of the result, marking the stock down below $47.50, a 52-week low. CBA has had a steep fall from its recent high of $62.16 in November. Has the market been too hard on CBA? We will know in by early May. The rest of the banking sector operates on a different reporting cycle to CBA, with their financial year ending on September 30. The interim results for ANZ, NAB, St George and Westpac (for the six months to March) are not due for another three months.




The market didn't respond well today and the stock was down below $47.50, a 52-week low. 

CBA recent high of $62.16 in November, 2007.


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## ShareIt (14 February 2008)

I think Technical Analysis reads into this well... As you can see, there was a desending triangle (making lower highs) with a support at around $48.50... that support was clearly broken on high volume, so I believe it will hit around the $44 mark over then next week or so before it finds some decent support...


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## Buffettology (14 February 2008)

ShareIt said:


> I think Technical Analysis reads into this well... As you can see, there was a desending triangle (making lower highs) with a support at around $48.50... that support was clearly broken on high volume, so I believe it will hit around the $44 mark over then next week or so before it finds some decent support...




Definately agree, TA reads into the CBA case extremelly well!  Support around $48 which was clearly broken and on high volume as you say and RSI is still above 30 which indicates its not completely oversold yet. Next support a bit above $44.


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## Buffettology (14 February 2008)

Buffettology said:


> Definately agree, TA reads into the CBA case extremelly well!  Support around $48 which was clearly broken and on high volume as you say and RSI is still above 30 which indicates its not completely oversold yet. Next support a bit above $44.




Though, I do note, it appears there is a bullish crossover on MACD.  

Though the decending triangle and support broken is far stronger than this signal.


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## ShareIt (15 February 2008)

Buffettology said:


> Though, I do note, it appears there is a bullish crossover on MACD.
> 
> Though the decending triangle and support broken is far stronger than this signal.




Quite right about the MACD crossover, it's a false signal because a bounded indicator fails to confirm it... RSI is not making higher highs, but rather lower highs.


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## numbercruncher (15 February 2008)

Falling share price is simply reflecting rapidly growing risk, imho.



> THE country's leading banks are thought to have an exposure of almost $5.5 billion to five of the most debt-laden and financially troubled companies, in a sign of the growing pressures corporate borrowers are placing on lenders.
> 
> With the Commonwealth Bank still reeling from the market's reaction to the impact of increased bad debt provisions on its first-half profits, new estimates from industry analysts underlined the fallout from a potential loan failure by one or more of the prominent businesses.
> 
> ...




http://business.smh.com.au/big-banks-face-55b-risky-debt-exposure/20080214-1sbu.html


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## cuttlefish (15 February 2008)

One of my reasons for shorting this (via puts now partly closed) is that, apart from the glaring technical situation, and inaddition to the risk of increased defaults, lack of ability to raise capital for lending, possible margin squeezes in rising rate environment and effect of housing/economic downturn on business volumes, the other factor to consider is that the high dividend yield in comparison to other investments is now not looking as attractive comparitively speaking.  As interest rates rise there are safer places to put money for a high yield - thus stocks that are primarily yield based investments tend to come down in price the same way that bonds come down in price as rates rise.

Put simply - in the current environment banks are no longer a low risk, high yield investment - they are becoming a higher risk, lower comparitive yield investment as rates rise.


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## TMC19 (15 February 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Falling share price is simply reflecting rapidly growing risk, imho.
> 
> 
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/big-banks-face-55b-risky-debt-exposure/20080214-1sbu.html




YAWN. Nothing new here. The SMH wheeled out the same story in January.  Simple media manipulation - playing to the masses.  CBA getting coverage for posting a subdued profit and the media jumping on the bandwagon.


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## numbercruncher (15 February 2008)

TMC19 said:


> YAWN. Nothing new here. The SMH wheeled out the same story in January.  Simple media manipulation - playing to the masses.  CBA getting coverage for posting a subdued profit and the media jumping on the bandwagon.




Perhaps but combined with dissappointing profits, and with defaults probably rising at a faster percentage clip than new loans, combined with worldwide economic woes .....

CBA is in a great position considering its massive retail deposits (comparitive to others), hence why I bank with them, probably the safest out of all the banks in the land.

If rising interest rates start causing a tide of defaulting across the private and commercial sectors there will be tons more pain.imho.


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## wavepicker (17 February 2008)

This one has been battered of late. Looks like it maybe coming into a low in the next few days for it's biggest countertrend rally since the decline started. A clear 5 wave decline almost complete as well as a Fib turn date for 18th Feb and another critical one on the  11th March(along with the broader market)
Let's see how it goes the next coupe of days...


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## josjes (17 February 2008)

Wavepicker, would you care to explain how you get the Fib date of 18 Feb and 11 Mar for CBA ? 18 Feb is its ex-div date for $1.13 so target of $44.2-45 is achievable.


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## wavepicker (17 February 2008)

josjes said:


> Wavepicker, would you care to explain how you get the Fib date of 18 Feb and 11 Mar for CBA ? 18 Feb is its ex-div date for $1.13 so target of $44.2-45 is achievable.





Hello josjes,


Thanks for the Divvy info, had no idea it was due and adds more weight to the analysis.
I have very strong Fib Clusters at both 18th Feb and 11th March. Don't have time to post how those dates were calculated ATM, but will do so perhaps tommorow. The 11th March date seems to coincide nicely the analysis made in the XAO Analysis thread a weeks ago, see links below:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258027&postcount=2842

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843

Cheers


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## jet328 (17 February 2008)

wavepicker said:


> This one has been battered of late. Looks like it maybe coming into a low in the next few days for it's biggest countertrend rally since the decline started. A clear 5 wave decline almost complete as well as a Fib turn date for 18th Feb and another critical one on the  11th March(along with the broader market)
> Let's see how it goes the next coupe of days...




CBA goes ex-div tomorrow, so I don't like your chances of it turning tomorrow. Dividend is $1.13 fully franked


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## wavepicker (17 February 2008)

jet328 said:


> CBA goes ex-div tomorrow, so I don't like your chances of it turning tomorrow. Dividend is $1.13 fully franked




To the contrary, it's perfect. What we want to see is a fall into that date. If it falls into that date chances are it might see the low tommorow. My dates are plus or minus a day, the reason for this is because it depends what time of the day a high or actually occured in the past that determines the future probability. A turn in the morning for example 2-3 months ago, can add an extra day when doing fibonacci expansions in forward timeframes.


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## Uncle Festivus (18 February 2008)

wavepicker said:


> To the contrary, it's perfect. What we want to see is a fall into that date. If it falls into that date chances are it might see the low tommorow. My dates are plus or minus a day, the reason for this is because it depends what time of the day a high or actually occured in the past that determines the future probability. A turn in the morning for example 2-3 months ago, can add an extra day when doing fibonacci expansions in forward timeframes.




Well we got the ex div sell off plus a little bit more overcorrection (4365), presenting what I think is a pretty good short term trade, and I have taken positions at these levels for a 'sympathy'? rally, which is happening as I type. Extraordinary times but opportunities to go long are always there.

From the top @ 62 it's fallen some 30% or more in 3 months. Something about throwing the baby out with the bathwater? Put it this way, if CBA tanks from here we are all in big trouble as it would imply the global shake-out has finally hit Oz in a tangible way.

WP, is your upside target and timescale $50 plus on/near 11.3?


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## M34N (18 February 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well we got the ex div sell off plus a little bit more overcorrection (4365), presenting what I think is a pretty good short term trade, and I have taken positions at these levels for a 'sympathy'? rally, which is happening as I type. Extraordinary times but opportunities to go long are always there.
> 
> From the top @ 62 it's fallen some 30% or more in 3 months. Something about throwing the baby out with the bathwater? Put it this way, if CBA tanks from here we are all in big trouble as it would imply the global shake-out has finally hit Oz in a tangible way.
> 
> WP, is your upside target and timescale $50 plus on/near 11.3?



I agree, overboard indeed. But it's more just the market factoring in a "worst case scenario" price, so any positive news during this period will lead to big rallies. For I remember about a month ago, there was a day when the market went down yet the biggest gainers on the ASX200 were CBA, ANZ and NAB -- something extremely rare.

Strange times we live in, indeed. Record profits, record dividend payments, yet exaggerated selling. You can't win in these market conditions.

If it goes down again tomorrow I'm definitely gonna buy some, CBA @ $44.00 is overdone, hasn't seen that price since at least mid-2006.


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## cuttlefish (18 February 2008)

sounds like knife catching to me.   As stated earlier in the thread - the comparitive attraction of the banks high yield diminishes as interest rates rise, and the banks are also facing various other risks at the moment. I've still got an open short position (partly closed the other day to cover the cost so the rest is free carried) - until it retraces I'll keep it open - there's no reason why it can't keep going down imo - so I'll stick with the trend for the time being until it retraces or volatility drops off.


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## M34N (18 February 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> sounds like knife catching to me.   As stated earlier in the thread - the comparitive attraction of the banks high yield diminishes as interest rates rise, and the banks are also facing various other risks at the moment. I've still got an open short position (partly closed the other day to cover the cost so the rest is free carried) - until it retraces I'll keep it open - there's no reason why it can't keep going down imo - so I'll stick with the trend for the time being until it retraces or volatility drops off.



$1.13 fully franked dividend at $44.00 a stock? Are you for real? This is a great stock, CBA has been a proven performer for over a decade, and if any bank can ride out this turbulence, it's this one. I personally think this price is cheap, as are many banks, and am accumulating them because, eventually, they're going to come back -- as to when, who knows. But with these dividends and their record profits, I don't believe these sell-offs are warranted IMO.

But again, time will tell. For long term investors, "knife catching" is no real biggie, I've done it many times and eventually people will see how overdone this latest sell-off has been.


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## ROE (18 February 2008)

M34N said:


> $1.13 fully franked dividend at $44.00 a stock? Are you for real? This is a great stock, CBA has been a proven performer for over a decade, and if any bank can ride out this turbulence, it's this one. I personally think this price is cheap, as are many banks, and am accumulating them because, eventually, they're going to come back -- as to when, who knows. But with these dividends and their record profits, I don't believe these sell-offs are warranted IMO.
> 
> But again, time will tell. For long term investors, "knife catching" is no real biggie, I've done it many times and eventually people will see how overdone this latest sell-off has been.




If you compared the 4 big banks.. I think CBA doesn't look as attractive as the others... and dont be fooled by the big dividends payment. Dividend can change at any time and with the subprime still yet to play out banks will be under plenty of down side for the next year or two.

read AFR "When banks feel the pain" over the weekend to see what lying ahead for them.


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## M34N (18 February 2008)

ROE said:


> If you compared the 4 big banks.. I think CBA doesn't look as attractive as the others... and dont be fooled by the big dividends payment. Dividend can change at any time and with the subprime still yet to play out banks will be under plenty of down side for the next year or two.
> 
> read AFR "When banks feel the pain" over the weekend to see what lying ahead for them.



CBA has always in the past performed very well, and I don't see what has fundamentally changed for people to dump this stock in favour for another bank? What does any other big 4 bank have to offer that CBA doesn't?

ANZ: $22.50 @ 74c p/share = 3.29%
NAB: $29.50 @ 95c p/share = 3.22%
WBC: $22.50 @ 68c p/share = 3.02%
CBA: $44.00 @ 149c p/share = 3.39%
*NB: using Final Dividend prices to compare fairly

They're all roughly the same, so I don't understand people justifying comments like "doesn't look as attractive as the others". If any of the banks will withstand the storm, why would CBA be any worse off than any other of the banks? No-one has explained that.


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## cuttlefish (18 February 2008)

The banks were very good value in the early 90's when they were yielding 8%+  fully franked while interest rates were down around 6%.  Westpac was under $3 from memory when Packer bought into it.  I have vague recollections of NAB yielding 11% but that must have been a grossed up yield surely.


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## dhukka (18 February 2008)

M34N said:


> $1.13 fully franked dividend at $44.00 a stock? Are you for real? This is a great stock, CBA has been a proven performer for over a decade, and if any bank can ride out this turbulence, it's this one. I personally think this price is cheap, as are many banks, and am accumulating them because, eventually, they're going to come back -- as to when, who knows. But with these dividends and their record profits, I don't believe these sell-offs are warranted IMO.
> 
> But again, time will tell. For long term investors, "knife catching" is no real biggie, I've done it many times and eventually people will see how overdone this latest sell-off has been.





Other than the dividend and the current price, do you have any reason to think this is a great stock? The news out of ANZ today is just the beginning in what will be a steady stream of rising credit quality problems. It will start out as a trickle but gain momentum and will last at least for the next 12 months. 

This is just the normal course of events as we move into the worst part of the credit cycle. However, given that the biggest credit bubble in history is imploding , this credit cycle could turn out to be anything but normal. 

There are plenty of companies out there with growing earnings, that have attractive dividend yields that are not facing the headwinds that the banks will be facing in the medium term.


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## M34N (18 February 2008)

dhukka said:


> Other than the dividend and the current price, do you have any reason to think this is a great stock? The news out of ANZ today is just the beginning in what will be a steady stream of rising credit quality problems. It will start out as a trickle but gain momentum and will last at least for the next 12 months.
> 
> This is just the normal course of events as we move into the worst part of the credit cycle. However, given that the biggest credit bubble in history is imploding , this credit cycle could turn out to be anything but normal.
> 
> There are plenty of companies out there with growing earnings, that have attractive dividend yields that are not facing the headwinds that the banks will be facing in the medium term.



For a long term investment, why would you knock it back? Yielding these dividends, I'm happy to hold no worries.

As they say, buy when there's blood in the streets  I'm sure many of you know how to make money, probably more so than me, but I invest only when everyone else is running away.

Like everything in the market, eventually everyone starts to see the reality, and right now, it's all blurry and everyone is scared of the banks. Sounds like a good time to invest for the long term. I hope more people sell it down, only makes it cheaper for me to buy in and ride out this storm. Again, only my , I've invested in worse times.


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## osmosis (18 February 2008)

I was just looking at the course of sales for CBA today and noticed this:

07:05:43 AM	23.000	5,000	115,000.00	C

I assume there is a simple answer, but why did this sale occur @$23?

Thanks for the reply.


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## MRC & Co (18 February 2008)

Sounds like there are a few Buffett lemmings around, without actually analysing "his techniques" and applying them.  

Good luck to all though!

Just be VERY VERY careful at this moment!  I think a LOT of fingers are going to get burnt before we see the end of this!  Some absolutely HUGE moves following profit downgrades have occured so far and these profit downgrades may well ripple into the near future.

Many prices have been derived from the potential for big earnings growth, which does not appear to be happening.  I have actually been shocked by the extent by which this slowdown seems to have actually hit the ASX companies, which will now be reflected in the rest of the indicators in the coming months, which may well cause another downturn in the market.  The stockmarket is a "leading" indicator afterall, no?


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## sails (18 February 2008)

osmosis said:


> I was just looking at the course of sales for CBA today and noticed this:
> 
> 07:05:43 AM	23.000	5,000	115,000.00	C
> 
> ...




I believe CBA went ex-div today and most in-the-money call options (i.e.the strikes below where CBA closed yesterday = day before ex-div) would have been exercised.  These usually show up around 7am the next morning.  It it is possible the "C" at then end could mean "calls".  Obviously someone owned some $23 calls and they have cashed in to get the dividend.

Over the next couple of days, it is quite likely to see a large number of in-the-money puts (i.e. put option strikes trading above CBA's price) being exercised and these will show up again around 7am.

Hope this helps!


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## refined silver (19 February 2008)

dhukka said:


> The news out of ANZ today is just the beginning in what will be a steady stream of rising credit quality problems. It will start out as a trickle but gain momentum and will last at least for the next 12 months.
> 
> This is just the normal course of events as we move into the worst part of the credit cycle. However, given that the biggest credit bubble in history is imploding , this credit cycle could turn out to be anything but normal.



The ANZ is in trouble with Credit Default Swaps an OTC derivative which according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is a major component of the more than $500 TRILLION of unregulated, non-clearing house guaranteed, private contracts and therefore without a market, pile of toxic OTC derivatives. So far the first part of the pile the CDOs and sub-prime derivatives have hit the fan, looks like the second much larger pile might be starting to shake. 

Sorry to post scary stuff, I know most people with bank shares are conservative risk averse people. However, if we really are in melt down mode the financial sector is where the nuclear reaction is epicentred. 

The chart below shows the behind the scenes borrowing going on right now in the financial sector. Compare it to 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 9/11, etc...


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## So_Cynical (19 February 2008)

Thats a hell of a chart...real OMG stuff...even adjusted for inflation its a worse situation than the 1920's crash.


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## ROE (19 February 2008)

M34N said:


> CBA has always in the past performed very well, and I don't see what has fundamentally changed for people to dump this stock in favour for another bank? What does any other big 4 bank have to offer that CBA doesn't?
> 
> ANZ: $22.50 @ 74c p/share = 3.29%
> NAB: $29.50 @ 95c p/share = 3.22%
> ...




Basing on dividend along doest justify...here is my quick reason why say WBC is better than CBA. For a start they employ better equity than CBA, they are also a smaller player but big enough to compete with CBA but small enough so if there is a defection in customers based WDC will get hit less than CBA.
smaller player has more room to grow than the bigger one.

Look at JB Hi-Fi and people like WOW and Harvey Norman and you can see small player if they have a good business model they have much better growth prospect.

WBC ROE
15.3 	16.1 	19.0 	19.1 	18.8 	15.1 	16.5 	19.3 	21.6 	21.7

CBA ROE
18.6 	17.7 	10.0 	13.5 	14.3 	10.2 	11.7 	16.4 	18.2 	18.4

PS I dont own any banking stock at this time in my portfolio because I think they all over price and too much of a market darling. so I patiently wait till the day I think it's justify their price and I buy. Even at these price I haven't even thinking about getting them just yet.


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## treefrog (19 February 2008)

ROE said:


> PS I dont own any banking stock at this time in my portfolio because I think they all over price and too much of a market darling. so I patiently wait till the day I think it's justify their price and I buy. Even at these price I haven't even thinking about getting them just yet.




pretty much agree roe, *major* correction on financials underway and best the bulls will see this year is an exhaustion rally as its getting into some serious oversold territory
Haven't seen a major index or bluey recover fully in quicktime from a correction such as this - one hel l  of a head of steam southbound atm


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## ZacR (19 February 2008)

In my humble opinion, no-one is going to agree on whether or not @ $44 a share is value for Commonwealth Bank.

If you are a *long* term investor there is no way you can tell me that $44 is not a bargain. A cataclysmic event or the monetary system as we know it would have to collapse for The Commonwealth Bank to completely 'tank'. 
It is only going to go up, guaranteed, in the long term. Above and beyond its $62 high. The 1920 collapse recovered. The 1987 collapse recovered. This will recover.

If you are a *short* term investor/ trader $44 is very realistically NOT a bargain or the lowest the share could possibly easily fall - if you are talking weeks/ months depending on how much the current credit market, US economy etc etc is travelling...

As for saying that the Commonwealth Bank is not one of the most stable of the big 5. Please...


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## Bill M (19 February 2008)

ZacR said:


> In my humble opinion, no-one is going to agree on whether or not @ $44 a share is value for Commonwealth Bank.
> 
> If you are a *long* term investor there is no way you can tell me that $44 is not a bargain. A cataclysmic event or the monetary system as we know it would have to collapse for The Commonwealth Bank to completely 'tank'.
> It is only going to go up, guaranteed, in the long term. Above and beyond its $62 high. The 1920 collapse recovered. The 1987 collapse recovered. This will recover.
> ...



I could not agree with you more. Too many people on the board think short term. I have been invested in the market since 1987, I've seen crashes, bear markets, corrections, Asian financial Crisis's, terrorist attacks and host of doom and gloom stories through all those years and yet CBA is still here.

Even with all this garbage going on now in the financial sector my original investment in CBA from when I bought in 1996 is up 450%, yes 450% and in all those years I keep on getting the "goodies" those sweet tax paid dividends. This year the day before ex dividend date I bought another large parcel for myself and I will get the current dividend plus all the dividends that will come in the future. CBA will come out of this in the future and I have no doubt that they will go up from these levels, short term I don't care. Think long term, not short term and you will always come out in front.


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## ROE (19 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> I could not agree with you more. Too many people on the board think short term. I have been invested in the market since 1987, I've seen crashes, bear markets, corrections, Asian financial Crisis's, terrorist attacks and host of doom and gloom stories through all those years and yet CBA is still here.
> 
> Even with all this garbage going on now in the financial sector my original investment in CBA from when I bought in 1996 is up 450%, yes 450% and in all those years I keep on getting the "goodies" those sweet tax paid dividends. This year the day before ex dividend date I bought another large parcel for myself and I will get the current dividend plus all the dividends that will come in the future. CBA will come out of this in the future and I have no doubt that they will go up from these levels, short term I don't care. Think long term, not short term and you will always come out in front.




You can say that for most blue chip company, WOW, WDC, CSL, COH and many others. The big distinction is at what price you pay for a stock is critical for your return.. If I can get a stock for $10 dollars and you get it for $13 my return going to exceed your at whatever angle you looking at it.

if stock go to $11 and sit there for a year, my dividend payout compared to price is greater and I'm up 10% you going backward 15% ..come second year it go to 13 bucks I'm up 30% you break even and the compounding effect make it so much better if you pay a lower price.

That why people like Warren Buffett get extra-ordinary return because the price they pay is critical to their success.


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

Anyone think technically, this could be a turnaround?  Doji cross followed by a hammer?  

Possibility, even if only very slight chance!

Fundamentally, still too expensive.

ROE is only around 18, will fall in the coming years due to smaller earnings growth, risk is high for a bank in this current climate and book value is not anywhere near its current price.  

Just dont see see much point of getting on CBA at this current time, perhaps short-term if this is a quick turnaround and that gap created yesterday is filled (but is it a runaway gap or an exhaustion gap?  Though, volume doesnt appear to point to either), but I think this will see some further hammering before its a viable long-termer.

Just a few thoughts.


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## dhukka (19 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> I could not agree with you more. Too many people on the board think short term. I have been invested in the market since 1987, I've seen crashes, bear markets, corrections, Asian financial Crisis's, terrorist attacks and host of doom and gloom stories through all those years and yet CBA is still here.
> 
> Even with all this garbage going on now in the financial sector my original investment in CBA from when I bought in 1996 is up 450%, yes 450% and in all those years I keep on getting the "goodies" those sweet tax paid dividends. This year the day before ex dividend date I bought another large parcel for myself and I will get the current dividend plus all the dividends that will come in the future. CBA will come out of this in the future and I have no doubt that they will go up from these levels, short term I don't care. Think long term, not short term and you will always come out in front.




I don't think anyone would argue about the benefit of taking a long term view. If I bought CBA in 1996 I wouldn't sell either, however I question the wisdom of buying at current prices. The banks are going into a cyclical downturn. Profit growth will flatten if not go backwards over the coming 12 months and bad debts will rise. 

It's not that CBA is a bad company but that there are other stocks that do not have the headwinds the banks will be facing over the next 12 months and are more attractively priced.


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## Uncle Festivus (19 February 2008)

Investing was for the bull, now it's trading time. CBA a great day trade at present.


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## wavepicker (19 February 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Investing was for the bull, now it's trading time. CBA a great day trade at present.




Yeah, bought some call options on monday arvo. Certainly is a traders market at present and timing is paramount in this sort of environemnt. However IMO this market will find a reasonable low in April for a more sustained rally into next year but thereafter for choppiness to contibue for some time.


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## refined silver (19 February 2008)

ZacR said:


> If you are a *long* term investor there is no way you can tell me that $44 is not a bargain. A cataclysmic event or the monetary system as we know it would have to collapse for The Commonwealth Bank to completely 'tank'.
> It is only going to go up, guaranteed, in the long term. Above and beyond its $62 high. The 1920 collapse recovered. The 1987 collapse recovered. This will recover.




The 1929 collapse did recover. In 1954 the DOW hit the same level again.

1987 was a bull market correction, not a change of an 18 yr secular trend. 

In 1966 stocks went sideways for 16 yrs til 1982, but that was in a decade of high inflation. In real terms in lost 75%!

The Nasdaq is still down over 50% 8 years later.

Its an absolute fallacy stocks always go up. Over the last 100 years, they have tended to go in 15-20 yr long term cycles. Commodities tend to be countercyclical. In other words, while paper stocks are going down 66-80, commodities are going up, when paper goes up 1982-2000, commodities go down, and from 2000 on while commods go up, paper stocks/bonds etc tend at best to sideways trends, but allowing for inflation lose money. 

Aus markets are a bit muddled because of the high proportion of commodity based stocks which helps the whole economy. 

In real terms CBA is not guaranteed to go up at all.

If you want some reading on these long cycles with charts etc, I will post them.


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Investing was for the bull, now it's trading time. CBA a great day trade at present.




To short or to go long?  

But I agree, the market definately dictates what time it is, you just have to adapt to it to survive!


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## ShareIt (20 February 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Anyone think technically, this could be a turnaround?  Doji cross followed by a hammer?




If you look at a weekly chart, it appears that a hammer is forming and we have RSI oversold. I would wait for confirmation on the turn before buying up as this stock is still in a down trend. In fact, it's almost free falling! $41 could prove to be good support.. next one down looks to be $37... just have to wait and see!


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## MRC & Co (20 February 2008)

ShareIt said:


> If you look at a weekly chart, it appears that a hammer is forming and we have RSI oversold. I would wait for confirmation on the turn before buying up as this stock is still in a down trend. In fact, it's almost free falling! $41 could prove to be good support.. next one down looks to be $37... just have to wait and see!




Yeh, I still wouldnt buy this one, banks got SMASHED today!  They are really under the "hammer" themselves ATM.  Would far prefer some of the commodity stocks currently on good runs and nearing production.  Such as EQN (made 15% on this one in a week so far) and SGX.  Also, MCR appears to be headed for a good run, with good profit results released (one of the very few in this latest reporting period).  See how we go, but the banks are a definate for finger burning at the moment!  Infact, I should have started shorting them LONG ago!  Idiotic not too!  But there still could be further room with all this fear out there and the fact that its not nearly over yet.........just how far will it go...........may be worse than we think and the banks are going to continue to take the brunt of it, since afterall, they are really amongst the roots of the problem.............


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## cuttlefish (20 February 2008)

I took a bit more profit on my short position in the middle of the day - the options are starting to get towards the pointier end of theta decay and a recovery would have reduced IV's as well.  Unfortunately the latter part of the day proved that to be a bad idea but at least some of the position is still open (60% closed, profitable, 40% open free carried).  Still learning about options - I don't regret the partial profit taking  - the options were well in the money so delta was on my side, but any reversal would have killed delta, theta was getting to the pointy end so wouldn't save it and IV's (vega) would also have dropped off with a reversal.   (and the accelerated drop into the close means the exact opposite has occurred - except for theta, all other factors (delta, gamma and vega) I'm assuming would be well increased in the last half hour trade adding to the value of the position, but who knows what overnight and tomorrow will bring).


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## ShareIt (20 February 2008)

Shorting CBA might not be such a good idea now... the risk/reward ratio wouldn't be worth it as it is well off it's resistance zone of about $48... waiting for a correction and test of resistance is a much better risk with a large trading range down to $43 so far.


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## treefrog (22 February 2008)

ShareIt said:


> Shorting CBA might not be such a good idea now... the risk/reward ratio wouldn't be worth it as it is well off it's resistance zone of about $48... waiting for a correction and test of resistance is a much better risk with a large trading range down to $43 so far.




agrees 100% - would not short here - look instead for start of lift back to $52 - the blue bit; but first target would be 38% retrace of last drop - hey that's $50 - too easy!!


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## M34N (22 February 2008)

treefrog said:


> agrees 100% - would not short here - look instead for start of lift back to $52 - the blue bit; but first target would be 38% retrace of last drop - hey that's $50 - too easy!!



Agree, even in the short term this stock (along with all the other financials) is just ridiculously oversold, we should see a rebound eventually. Like others have said, fundamentally, Australian banks are run so well that even with major write-downs because of bad US sub-prime loans, they still make big profits. US banks are posting big losses, and are down roughly the same % as Aussie banks -- how does that make sense? Our interest rates are going up, and the economy here is still booming, unemployment at record lows, record high wages -- sounds like the economy here is fine to me. Selling on news of record profits and dividends? Things don't add up.

I guess markets are just factoring in a "worst case scenario" for financials, not based on any real logic, just people getting out "in case" something bad happens next. This is the best time to invest IMO, even Babcock rallied hard today, I expect some rebounding to occur soon.

FWIW, I bought some CBA at $42.50 at the open this morning, looking to go in further over the next few weeks if it goes down further, set a sell at around $38.00 to protect myself, seems to be a safe price for now. Only time will tell!


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## lucifuge (22 February 2008)

1. The US subprime will continue for some time. This is due to two main factors; one, some financials continue to reveal problems that have been deliberately understated (or concealed), secondly the resulting ongoing herd 'fear' as a consequence.

2. The link in Aussie banks with lending with US banks.

(1.) and (2.) combined will effectuate further drops in the majors banks. It's really that simple. Those waiting for a dramatic return to normal levels have a very long wait on their hands. Any arrest short-term in the declining trend(s) will be extremely shaky.


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## dhukka (22 February 2008)

wavepicker said:


> To the contrary, it's perfect. What we want to see is a fall into that date. If it falls into that date chances are it might see the low tommorow. My dates are plus or minus a day, the reason for this is because it depends what time of the day a high or actually occured in the past that determines the future probability. A turn in the morning for example 2-3 months ago, can add an extra day when doing fibonacci expansions in forward timeframes.




Well it definitely fell into 18th, as you would expect when a stock goes ex-div however it has continued to go lower. Was Mr Fibonacci telling fibs?


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## Uncle Festivus (23 February 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> To short or to go long?
> 
> But I agree, the market definately dictates what time it is, you just have to adapt to it to survive!




Both. +- 2% up or down then I look for the woody or the waterfall on the intraminute.

Short term I think the daily range is implying some sort of capitulation of the traders and nervous hands and possibly an accumulation time? Depends on your timeframe as per the 2 charts below. Has it oversold? How deep are your pockets?

To put things in perspective, have the current global issues that _may_ affect CBA been _over_ priced in?


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## josjes (23 February 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Both. +- 2% up or down then I look for the woody or the waterfall on the intraminute.
> 
> Short term I think the daily range is implying some sort of capitulation of the traders and nervous hands and possibly an accumulation time? Depends on your timeframe as per the 2 charts below. Has it oversold? How deep are your pockets?
> 
> To put things in perspective, have the current global issues that _may_ affect CBA been _over_ priced in?





josjes said:


> Yes, study the trend of DOW and FTSE. Where they lead we follow. At the moment, market is basically being driven by one factor. The fate of the Monoline Insurers/Bond Insurers, ie. MBIA AMBAC and the like.
> Where these company shares price lead, Financial follows. Where financial leads, the whole market follows. Last night MBIA closed up 4%. So it looks like market is placing bet that short term wise, there will be satisfactory solution at least. I will place my 'bet' on the market breaking the symmetrical triangle up north and we will get a nice rebound up for at least till mid-March. Until then the market will get a reality hit on the real issue of recession and concerted global growth slow down. Watch out for commodities in mid-March then.



As my quote in the XAO Analysis few days ago, the market is being driven by these Monoline / bond insurance businesses.

Uncle, we have good news coming out of US as a catalyst to kick bank shares up for the next few weeks. 
AMBAC share went up 16% on the rumour that it will get a lifline to shore up its capital. The whole financial sector got a nice bounce 4% in the last half hour of trading. Aussie banks will up at least 2-3% Monday I reckon. 
Just go along with the ride for a few weeks until we found more write downs on the banks balance sheets.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (23 February 2008)

Yes, it's a knife edge for the US banking system generally - how deep are _their_ pockets???


----------



## wavepicker (23 February 2008)

dhukka said:


> Well it definitely fell into 18th, as you would expect when a stock goes ex-div however it has continued to go lower. Was Mr Fibonacci telling fibs?




Absolutely not!! LOL. Mr Fibonnacci cannot fail.  Only my intepretation  of Mr Fibonacci fails on occasion, especially when there is more than one possibility!! So you see I told the fibs, hopefully I won't tell as many fibs in the future and improve!!.

Nevertheless  next week should be better for the banks. It's always nice to get into something bang on target both in price and time, unfortunately does not happen all the time. Within a few days is satisfactory though. Not too worried at this stage, went long 43.65, and will endure a little drawdown.

Cheers


----------



## josjes (23 February 2008)

wavepicker said:


> Absolutely not!! LOL. Mr Fibonnacci cannot fail.  Only my intepretation  of Mr Fibonacci fails on occasion, especially when there is more than one possibility!! So you see I told the fibs, hopefully I won't tell as many fibs in the future and improve!!.
> 
> Nevertheless  next week should be better for the banks. It's always nice to get into something bang on target both in price and time, unfortunately does not happen all the time. Within a few days is satisfactory though. Not too worried at this stage, went long 43.65, and will endure a little drawdown.
> 
> Cheers



so what is wrong with the fibs prediction wavepicker, esp. timewise, as it was quite off the predicted time 18/2 compared to 22/2. Just interested to know and learn too. Was reading your explaination on XAO analysis thread that in bear trend, the time contract further when price is falling which is opposite of bull trend. Is this the reason ?


----------



## dhukka (23 February 2008)

wavepicker said:


> Absolutely not!! LOL. Mr Fibonnacci cannot fail.  Only my intepretation  of Mr Fibonacci fails on occasion, especially when there is more than one possibility!! So you see I told the fibs, hopefully I won't tell as many fibs in the future and improve!!.
> 
> Nevertheless  next week should be better for the banks. It's always nice to get into something bang on target both in price and time, unfortunately does not happen all the time. Within a few days is satisfactory though. Not too worried at this stage, went long 43.65, and will endure a little drawdown.
> 
> Cheers




It looks as though you'll get a nice bounce on the back of the rumoured AMBAC bailout on Monday, even if it is only temporary.


----------



## wavepicker (23 February 2008)

josjes said:


> so what is wrong with the fibs prediction wavepicker, esp. timewise, as it was quite off the predicted time 18/2 compared to 22/2. Just interested to know and learn too. Was reading your explaination on XAO analysis thread that in bear trend, the time contract further when price is falling which is opposite of bull trend. Is this the reason ?





Generally speaking, it should be plus or minus a day of off the mark. You have mentioned Rob Mchugh earlier, and he allows plus or minus a couple of days. My mistake here that there was more than one possibility. There was 18/2 working off traded days. The market fell into this (and  resulted  in a very minor turn of one  up day following the divvy day.

Working off calendar days the other possibility was on the 24th Feb(Which is a Sunday), and as such implies we had a nother one on Friday/Monday.  

The challenge for me is somehow to come up with a way of determining which will be the most significant when we have 2-3 possible days that fall very close together(within 1 week) as in this case. If you are trading fully paid shares it probably doesn't matter as you can endure the market moving back and forth in that timeframe and hold. If you are a derivatives or options trader as myself, then timing is much more crucial. 

Robert Prechter, who is a probably the best EW analyst got around it this way. If he knew he was in a fifth wave as now, he would initiate a position where he thought the 5th wave terminated. For me that was Monday. What he did though was not put all his intended $$ in the trade at once(he only put in 1/3), because 5th wave can extend a little. If the market falls further he add some more and buy twice as many contracts again, and then if the market fell even further because someone panicked because some more fundemental news came he would buy the rest in effect casting out his little basket and buying some very cheap options. This way you are making intelligent bids working off other people emotion. This what I did last week, fingers crossed, hope it works out!!


----------



## wavepicker (23 February 2008)

dhukka said:


> It looks as though you'll get a nice bounce on the back of the rumoured AMBAC bailout on Monday, even if it is only temporary.




It was always a temporary proposition, but the bounce will last at least into the 11th March so it's very tradeable


----------



## kingbrown (29 February 2008)

The banks have had a stella time in the last few years 
I should now i have been a long term invester since they floated 
But i had started to get a reality check 12 months ago 

What goes up up and up 

Comes Down Down Down


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2008)

Who would of thought an oversold stock could get more oversold then again more oversold. 

Trying to trade this thing long is very odd game?? She hasn't looked like making a higher high since Mid November. Would be interested in why some have played on the long side since then. 

If you removed the ticker and forgot about the name the chart has looked terrible for a long time. *I wounder if it didn't have the mighty CBA on the chart if people would see it the same way.*

Not a gloat I tried catching some knifes back in Jan. Soon went back to my day trading


----------



## oldblue (3 March 2008)

Like ( almost) everything else, CBA will turn back up in due course.
When that happens, they will still be a terrific banking franchise and I'll be ready to buy. But not yet.


----------



## dhukka (3 March 2008)

wavepicker said:


> It was always a temporary proposition, but the bounce will last at least into the 11th March so it's very tradeable




Hmmm telling fibs again? Seems the bounce was of the dead cat variety. That Fibonacci has a lot to answer for.


----------



## cuttlefish (3 March 2008)

Took the final part of profit on my put options position today - not because I think the downward slump has ended but mainly because they're getting closer to expiry and I'll be away the rest of the week.  

Wish I'd stacked up a larger position and hadn't taken as much partial profit earlier on but hindsight is a wonderful thing.


----------



## treefrog (17 March 2008)

bit selling going on - down 140c in last thirty minutes so will rest of financials follow this arvo????


----------



## madbull (24 July 2008)

What are peoples opinion about CBA and its takeover talks with ABN? 

I recently got out of CBA since my stop was triggered hoping to find a cheaper entry point but I'm considering whether or not this was the right thing to do now.


----------



## dhukka (20 August 2008)

Just thought I would update the chart that I posted back in February. The data comes from the RBA and is to the end of March 2008 (before announcements by ANZ and NAB).  As you can see impaired assets have turned sharply upwards. However impaired assets as a percentage of total assets still remain historically low but the trend suggests it may not stay that way.


----------



## JTLP (8 September 2008)

Has CBA seen the bottom? I am currently overseas so I can't post charts or anything (Hostel living for the win!) but from looking at the yearly it looks like CBA has been in a modest uptrend from the March lows (higher highs/lows etc).

Thoughts? Can anyone post a chart?

Thanks =)

JTLP


----------



## grace (8 September 2008)

JTLP said:


> Has CBA seen the bottom? I am currently overseas so I can't post charts or anything (Hostel living for the win!) but from looking at the yearly it looks like CBA has been in a modest uptrend from the March lows (higher highs/lows etc).
> 
> Thoughts? Can anyone post a chart?
> 
> ...




Happy holiday
You are beating me in the comp with that minemakers thing!  Go Linc Go!

Here is a chart......looks pretty sideways to me, although I am not a tech head!


----------



## JTLP (8 September 2008)

Ahhh i was looking on the Comsec charts (using a line chart) and it seemed to be in a bit of an uptrend (not with those candles though). It was also on a yearly. Thanks for that grace...much appreciated! (and yes go MAK...it's a bit of a tussle between us at the top)


----------



## Green08 (2 October 2008)

COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA ASX NOTICE REGARDING BANKWEST

Sydney 2 October 2008: 

Commonwealth Bank is aware of recent media speculation regarding the possible acquisition of BankWest.
Commonwealth Bank regularly reviews acquisition opportunities but at this time confirms we do not have any offer with HBOS plc to acquire BankWest


----------



## deadset (8 October 2008)

CBA is looking lonely with 0 trades today, so they are going for BankWest afterall.  What time does CBA open again ?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (8 October 2008)

deadset said:


> CBA is looking lonely with 0 trades today, so they are going for BankWest afterall.  What time does CBA open again ?




they are in a trading halt.....................................................................................................


----------



## deadset (8 October 2008)

"Shares in the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) have been placed in a *two day trading halt *while the lender raises $2bln capital to finalise its acquisition of BankWest and its wealth management arm St Andrews. CBA will pay $2.1bln for the group from its UK based owner HBOS. CBA shares last traded at $45.15."


----------



## Sunder (5 November 2008)

Wow, can't believe it was a month ago since one of the top 5 shares on the ASX was discussed.

Anyone know why it dropped 3% this morning before recovering? Some announcement about the Bankwest acquisition maybe?


----------



## drsmith (5 November 2008)

Possibly on media reports that ABC learning is about to go from intensive care into the hands of the corporate undertakers.

CBA is a $500m creditor.


----------



## cuttlefish (5 November 2008)

People might also be questioning why they didn't pass on the full 75 bp RBA rate cut but only 58 basis points instead - kind if implies things are a bit tight doesn't it?   WBC only passed on 65 bp as well.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-slices-rate-065-20081105-5i7x.html


----------



## TheAbyss (5 November 2008)

Sky business channel commentator on your money your call last night stated that CBA was "very smelly". Can't recall the exact wording however my interpretation was as follows,

Suncorp deposits were/ are in jeopardy hence the government guarantee on bank deposits being introduced and that if that guarantee gets lifted he wouldnt be surprised to see Suncorp share price hit $3.00. He then went on to say that CBA is also "very smelly" on the same lines. That was his reasoning as to why no one can make an offer for Suncorp as they are in dire straits so a value cannot be put to them.

Any truth to this? Only insiders would know however i wondered at the time what impact those comments would have on Sun and CBA today. 

How to gauge the effect of these comments? Interesting to say the least and do they have to substantiate given theior positions as brokers or do they get to slate a stock and buy low?


----------



## awg (5 November 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> People might also be questioning why they didn't pass on the full 75 bp RBA rate cut but only 58 basis points instead - kind if implies things are a bit tight doesn't it?   WBC only passed on 65 bp as well.
> 
> http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-slices-rate-065-20081105-5i7x.html






drsmith said:


> Possibly on media reports that ABC learning is about to go from intensive care into the hands of the corporate undertakers.
> 
> CBA is a $500m creditor.






try multiqoute again, hope it works

my opinion, reason they are not passing on full interest rate cut is cause of OS funding is rising due to our lowly dollar. approx 30% is sourced OS

As i stated on the ABS thread, that company is rooted, I looked at it ages ago and couldnt beleive anyone would invest.

I doubt they would be cost flow positive, even if you ignored the interest bill completely. 

CBA will take a complete loss, the govt wont let them close the doors, or no mummies can go to work!


----------



## johnnyg (5 November 2008)

Interesting Chart for CBA. Has formed a nice trading range within a Rectangle for the past 10 months. May have the potential for a big move either way depending which way it breaks. Definitely one to keep an eye on.


----------



## Julia (6 November 2008)

Sunder said:


> Wow, can't believe it was a month ago since one of the top 5 shares on the ASX was discussed.
> 
> Anyone know why it dropped 3% this morning before recovering? Some announcement about the Bankwest acquisition maybe?






drsmith said:


> Possibly on media reports that ABC learning is about to go from intensive care into the hands of the corporate undertakers.
> 
> CBA is a $500m creditor.



I offered another reason for the drop in my post this morning.  This was deleted because I wrote words which were not meaningful in order to fill the 100 character rule.   So I am now trying again to offer the information given earlier, i.e. that CBA also have significant exposure to AFG which is following the ABS path.   Hope this helps.


----------



## joeyr46 (10 November 2008)

johnnyg said:


> Interesting Chart for CBA. Has formed a nice trading range within a Rectangle for the past 10 months. May have the potential for a big move either way depending which way it breaks. Definitely one to keep an eye on.




The longer term chart 16yrs or so is more interesting as a log chart as it shows CBA has broken trend and is consolidating just under the trend line and of course today it broke down from the rectangle it had formed in your chart on good volume time will tell but it does not look bullish at all


----------



## STYLSH (11 November 2008)

thanks for the analyst  Maybe it'll be heading north today with the small rally they are having in the states.  Hope i didnt jump in too early like i always do.


----------



## Moneybags (11 November 2008)

Awesome stuff Nick........as always  . Some pretty disturbing targets there but thankfully I do not hold ATM.......will be watching with interest.

Do you see a similar bearish senario for other Banks also??

Cheers

MB


----------



## bloomy88 (11 November 2008)

Wow thanks Nick, that is some very in depth analsis. I will be watching CBA very closely for the rest of the week, especially after the 6.29% fall ($2.39) today. I think if CBA hits $30 i will be buying, the only worry is their $600+ million exposure to ABC and $200million exposure to Allco.

Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Thanks again Nick


----------



## cuttlefish (11 November 2008)

bloomy88 said:


> I think if CBA hits $30 i will be buying.




That would be brave imo.  From an economic perspective I can't see anything to indicate the pain isn't far from over for the banks and in fact it might only just be starting.


----------



## Moneybags (11 November 2008)

Moneybags said:


> Do you see a similar bearish senario for other Banks also??
> 
> Cheers
> 
> MB




Hmmmm, judging by todays performance of Banks it could well be the case......NAB have really started the ball rolling here with cap raising.

MB


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## Sean K (17 November 2008)

CBA yielding 10% on a pe of 8 ish.

Anyone else thinking it's approaching oversold - long term opportunity?


----------



## STYLSH (17 November 2008)

Wow, lucky i got out a few days ago.  It doesn't look like a fakeout.  Maybe the $15 scenario is coming?!


----------



## dhukka (17 November 2008)

kennas said:


> CBA yielding 10% on a pe of 8 ish.
> 
> Anyone else thinking it's approaching oversold - long term opportunity?




I have the FY09 forecast yield at around *8.6%* according to comsec consensus estimates (assuming a price of $31) but I'd be careful about the yield, CBA announced what amounted to a profit warning last week in their September quarter trading update. Short term it looks oversold, especially when it dipped below $30 earlier this morning.


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## gfresh (17 November 2008)

The CBA will be downbeat until that huge white elephant in the room - Centro Properties is resolved. Looking at the price of CNP and CER, any hope for them seems to be fading fast.  

If Centro fails it will be Australia's largest corporate collapse, and CBA is exposed. The expiry of the funding deadline is December 15th, which is looming ever closer. 

Under that scenario, a target of $15 (or at least much lower than current prices) couldn't be ruled out.


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## Bushman (17 November 2008)

gfresh said:


> The CBA will be downbeat until that huge white elephant in the room - Centro Properties is resolved. Looking at the price of CNP and CER, any hope for them seems to be fading fast.
> 
> If Centro fails it will be Australia's largest corporate collapse. The expiry of the funding deadline is December 15th, which is looming ever closer.
> 
> Under that scenario, a target of $15 probably couldn't be ruled out at all.




Keep an eye out for what discount to book value Centro are accepting for asset sales in CAWF/CSIF etc. CBA & Co controls this process now. If it starts heading to the 'firesale' territory (say 15% plus), then you know that CBA and co are 'losing faith' in trying to trade out of the mess Centro are in.


----------



## cuttlefish (17 November 2008)

Wouldn't go near it long term.  Short term it seemed logical that it might hit some resistence to its downward plummet around the $30 mark so it might pause here for a while and consolidate for a bit before any further moves down.


----------



## oldblue (17 November 2008)

What is ( best guess ) CBA's exposure to CNP group?

How much was ( theoretically) covered by first ranking security?


----------



## Nick Radge (17 November 2008)

> a breakout to the downside that sticks will see $30.00 with a *high degree of probability*




Today's low was $29.92 with a reasonable close at $31.22. There could be something in that. We'll be taking another look later this week to see what the Elliott Wave pattern suggests from here.


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Sean K (18 November 2008)

Big turn around on the financials this morning, all bouncing sharply.

Interesting.

Wonder if it'll hold?


----------



## TheAbyss (18 November 2008)

Well i have taken a risk and jumped in at $29.95 for a while and see if we can get a bounce. The 5 year chart indicates a bit of a floor around $30 and Nick has a technical evaluation of same. Concerned that technicals get forgotten in times of fear but worth a shot in my view.

Charty attached but no lines etc as i dont have the analytical skills required but $30 does look ok (as did $40 a short while ago).


----------



## Nick Radge (18 November 2008)

The EW count suggests we're clearly impulsing lower in what may be an extended 5-wave pattern (labeled -1 through -5) that now appears to be sub-dividing into a smaller pattern (labeled -i through -v). The correct way to trade this pattern is with the trend, so looking for the end of a wave-iv bounce and _initiating shorts with the trend_ - as opposed to against it. You can see that there is no sign of a wave-iv or the end of wave-iii for that matter. 




_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## agro (20 November 2008)

it fell below $30 today

do you think CBA and other banks will maintain their dividends for next year?


----------



## oldblue (20 November 2008)

agro said:


> it fell below $30 today
> 
> do you think CBA and other banks will maintain their dividends for next year?




Far too early to call that, IMO.
Apart from CBA, the other three "pillars" are barely into their new financial year with a long way to go before the half, let alone the final results.


----------



## alphaman (20 November 2008)

agro said:


> do you think CBA and other banks will maintain their dividends for next year?



So far SUN seems to be the only bank that has admitted dividends will be cut. ANZ and WBC have specifically insisted that dividends will be maintained, just like the government and RBA saying we will not have a recession.

Realistically, it's such a no brainer that dividends will have to be cut.


----------



## sammy84 (20 November 2008)

SUN's balance sheet is in a lot more trouble than the banks. I think the big banks realise that so many holders haven't sold yet on the provision of receiving dividends, so any cut would have a drastic impact on the SP. They have the capital available to keep dividends the same, so why not...


----------



## ROE (20 November 2008)

either the market is wrong or the bank is telling lies
with the current SP the market factor in some dividend cut

consider we only see a few corporate collapse and their provision start to look scary, imagine when the housing market turns and fore closure are coming in thick and fast, that is the scary scenario

because all the big 4 has pretty big residential and construction loan book
probably their biggest loan book.

and I think a lot of people are imagining that scenario and hence the SP


----------



## Sean K (21 November 2008)

agro said:


> it fell below $30 today
> 
> do you think CBA and other banks will maintain their dividends for next year?



All 4 bank CEOs have categorically stated they will not cut dividends.

Michael Pascoe wrote a piece about it in whatever paper he writes for a couple of days ago. 

Lets wait to see some pants on fire.


----------



## drsmith (21 November 2008)

I remember Westpac's pants being on fire back in 92 when as part of a capital raising the promised dividend was halved. 

Hopefully none of the major banks will find themselves in as much distress as Westpac did back then.


----------



## Sean K (21 November 2008)

Found the Pascoe article in the Brisbane Times.

*Banks offer treat or trick*
Michael Pascoe | November 19, 2008 - 7:33AM

Either the market is offering some of the great buys of the decade or we've witnessed a complete collapse of trust in the chief executives of our cornerstone institutions.

Westpac touched a low yesterday of $15.30. At that price, Gail Kelly is promising to pay you an amazing pre-tax dividend of 13.25%.

ANZ fell as low as $12.65. At that price, Mike Smith is promising to pay an absolutely extraordinary pre-tax dividend of 15.35%.



Hmmm, Ralph Norris from CBA isn't quoted in it...


----------



## johenmo (21 November 2008)

I'll go for a collapse in trust.  They still have hiddens bags of dirty laundry yet to come out, I reckon.

Divs will be lower, unless Rudd Pty Ltd gives them some more spending money.  If he does, I hope it's NAB and goes straight their most deservind shareholder - me!


----------



## mfsperth (22 November 2008)

*CBA and Citigroup's assessment*

With 52,000 job losses, stock market value down from $274 bn to $26bn, and $20 bn in losses in one year, Citigroup are in no position to bag CBA.

Citigroup seem to be on a continuing campaign to drive down value in Oz stocks, and their public assessments need to be subject to the same controls as ratings agencies are about to come under.


----------



## cuttlefish (25 November 2008)

Interesting close today.  Traded in $31.50 to $32 range most of the day then in the match up it jumped $2 to close at $34.00.    

I'm assuming looming options expiry is a likely part of the explanation given its been a strong down month.   Also noted that BBP managed to pay off a debt facility announcement at 4:15 p.m (don't follow BBI so not sure if this was expected).   Also no news today from CNP which might be a case of no news is good news?  

 Any other possible explanations for the large jump on the close?


----------



## cuttlefish (25 November 2008)

Well an interesting item on the SMH this afternoon about a big computer glitch at CBA causing duplicate transactions to occcur for about 200,000 customers.   Does anyone know when this news actually came out ... and WTF did they not put out any ASX announcement about it.   

 Its a bit scary that they can make such a large error ... kind of brings home the fact that our 'dollars in the bank' are really just a bunch of magnetic imprints on a computer disc somewhere.


----------



## sinner (25 November 2008)

Yeah lol I got a few emails today from some rather disconcerted online sellers who were wondering why the cash I had sent them over the weekend was vanishing from their accounts.

http://www.commbank.com.au/news/netbank_news14.aspx?n=news39

This is CBAs second "computer glitch" in a very short period of time. A sign of so called cracks in the wall?

EDIT: The original update I saw was at 11am, there could have been one before but I had an exam this morning.


----------



## honey85 (15 December 2008)

Does anyone know why the price of CBA is so stagnant lately? The market surged 80+ points today but CBA had negligible change. It has been almost a week and CBA is trading around $28. Was it because of the announcement on 10th dec to raise capital of $750m? And what do you guys think of CBA in the short-term and long-term future? I am quite new to shares.


----------



## cuttlefish (15 December 2008)

This are my views - for what they're worth - don't hold me to them!

Factors affecting CBA and banks lately:

Fundamental
* WBC cap raising and CBA announcing small cap raising as well has dragged down both of them in my view.
* As I understand it CBA has a fair bit of exposure to Centro Propertie who are due to make an announcement about their debt deadline sometime in the next day or two (see below - they went into trading halt pending announcement today).  
* General economic environment - retail sales, unemployment/jobs, housing etc.

Technical
* Broke down from a long term sideways trading band between $39 and $45 around the beginning of November to resume its downtrend
* Seems to have some historical support around $28 which its bounced off a couple of times in the past few few weeks - I see more firm historical support around $23 as well.   There is also a historical congestion area in the $23 to $32 sort of range so it might find support in this zone (or get bogged down in this zone for a while before turning back upwards).  If it falls down below this zone it will be interesting.

My personal view on banks is still bearish and I think CBA had gotten off lightly so far this year compared to the others and has been doing a bit of catchup lately.

CNP announcement from today below:

_Centro Properties Group (ASX:CNP) Request for Trading Halt
Centro Properties Group (Centro) hereby requests that the ASX grant a trading halt of its
stapled securities effective immediately, until the making of a pending announcement regarding
the outcome of negotiations on the extension of its finance facilities that are due to expire today.
Centro requests the trading halt remain in place until the sooner of the making of that
announcement and the opening of trade on Wednesday 17 December 2008.
Centro confirms that it is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted._


----------



## sinner (15 December 2008)

honey85, as mentioned in this thread and others, the big white elephant in the room is Centro.

These debts were supposed to be called today I believe.

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/article.aspx?id=286956

Of course they cannot pay this and CBA has exposure, the market knows it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aLWN7N6s_HJI&refer=australia

US malls have been reported as drying up all over the country. I can probably dig up a link if you like.

Nobody is interested in going long until the smoke clears.

Just dug this up on Google News

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24791824-5001641,00.html

Good read "Centro Properties in sights of CBA's hitman" small tidbit



> But Centro Properties is no place for the short-sighted. Its collapse would be an economy-shaking event. For 10 months now, the ludicrously constructed, trans-Pacific shopping mall owner has effectively been in the hands of two syndicates of banks and 10 insurance companies which are owed over $6 billion. The CBA is owed $1.2 billion by Centro. Of that, $1 billion is secured -- making the bank Centro's biggest secured creditor.
> 
> 
> Of the other pillars, the NAB has the next biggest secured exposures at $750 million with a further $200 million unsecured, while the ANZ has $700 million of secured debt and $680 million unsecured and Westpac $558 million secured, most of that courtesy St George Bank.
> ...




EDIT: Bah ya beat me to it cuttlefish! While I was digging for links!


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## drsmith (15 December 2008)

sinner said:


> US malls have been reported as drying up all over the country. I can probably dig up a link if you like.



I'd be interested in such a link(s).

With regard to Centro the balance of media opinion is that the banks will give it a stay of execution.


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## sinner (16 December 2008)

Hi drsmith,

This is just one example I found quickly before bed, you can go to news.google.com, I searched "commercial real estate malls" for a crapload of very fresh results with similar stories.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122929964304905239.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Commercial real estate is yet to burst in the US, but in my opinion it is unavoidable. Wow we are getting off topic.



> Shares of Simon Property Group SPG.N, the No. 1 U.S. mall operator, slid 13 percent to $41.07, and Boston Properties Inc BXP.N, which owns skyscrapers and other office buildings in key U.S. markets, dropped 12.1 pct to $43.60. The benchmark MSCI U.S. REIT index .RMZ declined 13.4 percent, compared with a 6.1 percent drop in the S&P 500 .SPX.
> 
> "The mall operators are really, really in trouble," said Kevin Quinn, a managing director of equity trading at Stanford Group Company, mentioning Vornado Realty Trust VNO.N as a key player. "There aren't even signs on the empty stores in the malls. They've been empty for a while, barren, tumbleweeds blowing through."




from http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN1933428520081119



> With regard to Centro the balance of media opinion is that the banks will give it a stay of execution.




Not sure if you read the last link I posted, CBA seems to be determined to pull the trigger despite everyone else wanting to provide clemency.


----------



## drsmith (16 December 2008)

Thanks for the links.

Quickly reading a couple of news articles this morning it appears that Centro is trying to swap some debt for equity and CBA is trying to negotiate itself into a better position relative to the other banks. According to the SMH discussions with banks were being held late last night in New York to get all the financiers to approve the rescue package.


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## Justthinkin (16 December 2008)

I hold CER and am very interested in outcome of these negotiations. I find it difficult to believe that after such a long period (nigh 12 months) that CBA or any banker is holding out to the last minute... very difficult to believe. Moreover, if indeed that is how it really is (ie CBA is not yet comfortable) then the directors of CNP et al need to look long and hard at the issue of solvency... do they have adequate working capital to fund a logical / ordely liquidation... I doubt it.

Alan Kohler in an article yesterday made the observation that the CBA is walking a fine line... enjoying Federal government guarantees but potentially instigating (or maybe facilitating???... pick a word) a significant investment failure and consequential commercial property and retail malaise... Telstra got in the government's face yesterday and I think the government mentioned in no uncertain terms that it was not a good idea... CBA ought to be (and I suspect are) mindful.

Lastly, I have difficulty with banks of CBA's ilk taking equity positions ... it is a banker...if it was MacBank, I fully understand. If indeed CBA takes the equity (whatever form) then in my view it has compromised it's charter...

Whatever... I hold CER and not CBA...

Do your own research etc etc

Good luck today


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## oldblue (16 December 2008)

I don't have a problem with CBA or any other commercial bank taking an equity position in an equity for debt deal. There have been plenty of these in the past and they are preferable to the alternative which is normally mortgagee sale, receivership or liquidation of the borrower. 
I wouldn't think that a bank would want to be a longterm shareholder in most instances and the deal would be regarded as a temporary arrangment with a view to on-selling the equity in due course.

Disc: Holding a few CNP; no CBA but a couple of other banks.


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## cuttlefish (16 December 2008)

I don't think retail is going to get better any time soon, so CNP's business is not going to improve.  If CBA want to pull the trigger now, accept the writedowns and move on it might be better in the long run.  If its cactus and everyone know's its cactus then there's not much point keeping it hanging on in some kind of corporate denial.    

Currently it seems CNP have the revenue to cover interest on the debt, but with an ongoing decline in retail, how likely is this to continue?  They might get a better price for their assets in a liquidation if they are still showing some reasonable yield.

I don't really see any good news in this for CBA either way, but its possible the recent selldown of CBA has already priced a lot of CNP related negativity into the price anyway.


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## honey85 (16 December 2008)

As mentioned, I am new to shares. I did my first trading last month with CBA and got a 15% profit. Have read some bad news about CBA but don't know why I still bought CBA last week. Maybe because it gave me my first profit and emotionally I am inclined to it. This shows how amatuer I am Really hope to get out asap without a loss, not to mention any profit.


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## cuttlefish (16 December 2008)

honey85 said:


> As mentioned, I am new to shares. I did my first trading last month with CBA and got a 15% profit. Have read some bad news about CBA but don't know why I still bought CBA last week. Maybe because it gave me my first profit and emotionally I am inclined to it. This shows how amatuer I am Really hope to get out asap without a loss, not to mention any profit.





The market is always difficult to predict. Sometimes it will rally on bad news, fall on good news, drift sideways on horrible news, plummet or soar on mild news etc.  It often depends on how widely a pending announcement has been known about and to what level a particular outcome has been priced in.

Nobody can know for certain one way or another how the CBA share price will perform over the short term (or the long term for that matter.)

Which is why you need to have your own trading plan, your own reasons for entry, your own criteria for exits, and your own money management regime that matches your appetite for risk.


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## honey85 (16 December 2008)

Banks agreed to Centro's debt extension.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/centro-debt-deal-all-but-done-20081216-6zfy.html

How would this impact on the economy or specifically CBA? From my shallow knowledge of shares, I reckon this as a good news to CBA, isn't it? Can someone elaborate on this? I wish to learn more.


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## cuttlefish (16 December 2008)

honey85 said:


> Banks agreed to Centro's debt extension.
> 
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/centro-debt-deal-all-but-done-20081216-6zfy.html
> 
> How would this impact on the economy or specifically CBA? From my shallow knowledge of shares, I reckon this as a good news to CBA, isn't it? Can someone elaborate on this? I wish to learn more.




Firstly - don't believe everything you read in the newspaper - until its been announced to the ASX I would still treat it as hearsay (thats my take).

But if this news is announced, it may be good for the economy, it may be good for CBA, but that doesn't necessarily mean the share price will rise.  On the other hand it may be bad for the economy and/or bad for CBA - that doesn't necessarily mean the share price will fall.

Trying to apply this sort of basic logic to short term price movements tends not to work - more often than not the market will do the opposite of what 'logic' would dictate - nobody knows for sure what will happen.

And thats enough from me on the topic, I'm no expert either.


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## oldblue (16 December 2008)

Yes, one would expect this to be good news for all concerned when (if) it's confirmed but as cuttlefish says, the market will not necessarily boost CBA's SP as a consequence. That depends largely to what degree this news has been anticipated and already built into the SP - and we have no idea of that!


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## honey85 (16 December 2008)

Capital raise is announced.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081216/pdf/31f6zkrhv1hlmj.pdf

From what I saw on Westpac last week or two, capital raising will force the share down to around the published price of $27. I thought CBA might have a quick short rally due to Centro (rose $1.10 today) but with this news, it seems like it wont. Any thoughts from anyone? Thanks.


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## gfresh (17 December 2008)

Somebody made a little boo-boo by forgetting to tell the institutionals that they've also had to raise their bad debt provisions to 0.6% of total loans  Merrill walks out in embarrassment it seems... 

http://business.theage.com.au/business/cba-stuffs-up-capital-raising-20081217-7046.html

Looks like a right **** up!


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## Justthinkin (17 December 2008)

Honey85... I don't think you are going to have a good day. 

Old Blue... that is why banks (sheltered by the infamous four pillars policy under which they develop egos and ambitions way beyond there abilitys) should not take equity positions in stressed companies. They are credit risk assessors and managers... not equity traders or capital providers... they just don't have those skills. It seems today they cannot even value their own equity... hmmmm!

For the rest of us... compliments of the CBA (who have just discovered that bad debts might be an issue during this difficult financial crisis) I suspect we'll all take a hit on the all ords...bugger. My greatest concern is that this public display of incompetence just spills everywhere...bugger bugger bugger

Don't mind me

DYOR


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## Sean K (17 December 2008)

I suppose the CEO can still take his $10m bonus for steering the ship in a straight line. 

Don't need to make any blunders in this environment.

Of course, he's worth the $10m to get that caliber of talent.


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## prawn_86 (17 December 2008)

kennas said:


> I suppose the CEO can still take his $10m bonus for steering the ship in a straight line.
> 
> Don't need to make any blunders in this environment.
> 
> Of course, he's worth the $10m to get that caliber of talent.




Nice job if you can get it 

Where do i sign up? Or arn't i in the boys club cause i didnt go to private school?


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## honey85 (17 December 2008)

When I woke up, I thought CBA will have at least a decent day from DJ and Centro and the capital raising. At 9.45 the news of the blunder came out, I was like... what the ****? But these uncertainties are what makes the market interesting, isn't it?


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## cuttlefish (17 December 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> Firstly - don't believe everything you read in the newspaper - until its been announced to the ASX I would still treat it as hearsay (thats my take).





Well it looks like even if it has been announced to the ASX it isn't necessarily so   (i.e. I'm referring to the announcement last night regarding the cap raising, not the CNP stuff this comment was originally directed about).

Gee the market seems like a minefield at the moment, and it doesn't seem like any of the banks are winning any friends at the moment between the various debacles going on (or that have gone on) this year.


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## michael_selway (17 December 2008)

honey85 said:


> When I woke up, I thought CBA will have at least a decent day from DJ and Centro and the capital raising. At 9.45 the news of the blunder came out, I was like... what the ****? But these uncertainties are what makes the market interesting, isn't it?




hehe its called a true Bear Market 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 344.4 320.2 334.5 388.7 
DPS 266.0 266.0 266.0 285.0 *









> Date: 16/12/2008
> Author: Tanya Powley; Jane Searle
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 46
> A weakening economy has caused mortgage lenders to review their lending criteriaand risk exposures. Low-documentation loans have virtually disappeared. Themortgage broker changes have also affected the approach of banks in lateDecember 2008, who rarely offer no-deposit loans any more. Some say that thefailure of some non-bank lenders has reduced competition in this sector
> ...




Thx

MS


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## Aussiejeff (17 December 2008)

Oh dear.

CBA's NetBank Login & Home Pages won't load. Must be a few CBA server hits going on.. 

Clowns.


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## Nyden (17 December 2008)

I must say, I'm completely stunned as to how this happened? How the heck did CBA think they were going to dodge this - make a sly comment to the press, and expect everyone to be happy?

Oh well, there go my CBA profits; and probably then some! : I'm very disappointed though, as it looks as though it may have even opened in the green this morning ... only to have this nonsense come up.

I really am just stunned as to how they thought they were going to get away with it  This whole issue has been a mistake, they should have waited for (hopefully) higher prices.

Furthermore, would it not have been insider trading if these insto ivestors knew of the issues before the market did? I really hope this event results in more disclosure by more companies. All of this lying by omission really is hurting the Australian market, you only need to look over at OZL to see the mess it causes. Perhaps I should call CBA and ask for my shares for $1 less as well, afterall - I wasn't told either


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2008)

It will be an interesting AGM you would imagine.

The instos may well be looking to push someone out after this schmozzle. 

I'll be looking to put some in the bottom draw IF it gets to 24.


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## cuttlefish (17 December 2008)

I still see plenty more room for downside in the banks.  If/when they start to report losses instead of profits and cut their dividend payments the current prices may not look as attractive as they do today.    And I find it hard to imagine there won't be a few more cap raisings as they go through the coming year given the funding situation and the deteriorating loan books.

Short term there will be technical bounces and rallies but I wouldn't be calling a bottom yet.


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## Lexie86 (17 December 2008)

Nyden said:


> I must say, I'm completely stunned as to how this happened? How the heck did CBA think they were going to dodge this - make a sly comment to the press, and expect everyone to be happy?
> 
> Oh well, there go my CBA profits; and probably then some! : I'm very disappointed though, as it looks as though it may have even opened in the green this morning ... only to have this nonsense come up.
> 
> ...




Not really surprised at how CBA has turned out considering their lack of provisioning for bad debts.
Their long-standing argument this year of not requiring any more capital plus their slow realisation that they need to match the Tier 1 capital ratio of the central banks has really torpedoed their credibility.

But you really do have to have to wonder when at the completion of a revision raising, a major bank announces that their bad debt expense would increase from 40 to 50 basis points to approx 60 basis points.

CBA ever heard of due diligence?


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## cuttlefish (17 December 2008)

Now I've seen everything - see announcement just released at 3:17 p.m. today.

Here's an excerpt:

"_The Commonwealth Bank today announced that it had terminated the share placement agreement with Merrill Lynch International Australia Limited on the basis that Merrill Lynch did not inform potential investors of the various disclosures made by the Bank in its announcement released to the ASX at 7.30 pm on Tuesday 16 December 2008._"

Hello?!? What about continuous disclosure and insider trading.

Apparently the information that CBA released after market yesterday to all of us 'other' investors, about the bad debts increasing, was supposed to be disclosed by Merril to potential investors during the capital raising.   So Merril was obliged as part of the agreement to provide market sensitive information not yet disclosed to the market ... interesting.  

Is there anything the banks can't get away with at the moment?


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## Nyden (17 December 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> Now I've seen everything - see announcement just released at 3:17 p.m. today.
> 
> Here's an excerpt:
> 
> ...




I don't understand why they even released that statement at this time? If the stock is to remain in halt, what's the point? There's no clarification on the issue there, there's no indication of how the new raising went, there's nothing in it - except a big finger pointing in the direction of Merril

Other ann seems to have answered some questions. At least they did manage to flog off 357 mill worth @ 28.37


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## sails (17 December 2008)

Another one released at 15.33 - it's copyright so here's the link: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...ba&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=W

Appears to be in the process of finalising the new deal at $26...


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## cuttlefish (17 December 2008)

I'm assuming this means they'll lift the trading halt tomorrow morning then and resume with the open.


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2008)

"Now I've seen everything - see announcement just released at 3:17 p.m. today.

Here's an excerpt:

"_The Commonwealth Bank today announced that it had terminated the share placement agreement with Merrill Lynch International Australia Limited on the basis that Merrill Lynch did not inform potential investors of the various disclosures made by the Bank in its announcement released to the ASX at 7.30 pm on Tuesday 16 December 2008._"

Hello?!? What about continuous disclosure and insider trading.

Apparently the information that CBA released after market yesterday to all of us 'other' investors, about the bad debts increasing, was supposed to be disclosed by Merril to potential investors during the capital raising.   So Merril was obliged as part of the agreement to provide market sensitive information not yet disclosed to the market ... interesting.  

Is there anything the banks can't get away with at the moment?"

Hahaha... I call bull****...


Seriously... come on ASIC. Here is a company admitting to forcing mandatory insider trading!!!

No wonder Merrill didn't tell their investors. Why should they? It's not their job to pass on information that should be known by the market. Hell!!! I think that is even massively illegal now!!


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## deadset (17 December 2008)

I already got burnt on "capital raising" by other companies last week.  So you've got my sympathy on this one, even though I didn't hold CBA this week.

If you don't get it, imagine being a shareholder, and then the company sells lots of other shares for less than your ones without telling you.


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## SoBadAtTrading (17 December 2008)

It's tough being a shareholder these days with all the capital raisings that's going on. With CBA, isn't this their 3rd raising in a month or two already!? How many % has the share lost since its first raising??


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## Naked shorts (17 December 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> "Now I've seen everything - see announcement just released at 3:17 p.m. today.
> 
> Here's an excerpt:
> 
> ...





This has got to be the biggest f**k-up in history!
Is there any market that hasn't factored in this screwup yet?
Im am at a loss for words


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## honey85 (17 December 2008)

It takes a mammoth effort to perform such a big screw up. It's not easy at all to screw up things at such scale. I dread to see how CBA goes tomorrow. I feel for those who have bought CBA lately. I am one of them I gonna lose a few hundred bucks tomorrow (I said I am new, didn't I?)


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## tab96 (17 December 2008)

I am one of them too.

Was my 3rd trade ever.  The very next day, this all happens.

But I can't exactly say my research was exhaustive.


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## drsmith (17 December 2008)

Through all of this CBA still got all of it's capital raising money which is the most important thing.

Still, it was an interesting screw up.


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2008)

drsmith said:


> Through all of this CBA still got all of it's capital raising money which is the most important thing.
> 
> Still, it was an interesting screw up.




No. I actually do not think they did.

Originally it was meant to be 2 billion, but ended up being 1.65 I think.

Fair to say a fair few who had ponied up cash the first time, were certainly not going to the second time around. And fair enough to. Really, just awful.


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## drsmith (17 December 2008)

As I understand it the 1.65 raised from UBS did not include the 0.357 raised by Merrill Lynch last week whereas the original 2 billion to be raised by Merrill Lynch did.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/someones-going-to-pay-the-price-20081217-70qx.html


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## alphaman (17 December 2008)

This is very odd. I think the institutions simply used it as an opportunity to extract a greater discount. I mean, come  on, is it such a surprise that CBA's bad debts will increase?  Are they really that naive?


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## oldblue (18 December 2008)

alphaman said:


> This is very odd. I think the institutions simply used it as an opportunity to extract a greater discount. I mean, come  on, is it such a surprise that CBA's bad debts will increase?  Are they really that naive?




You're right about that ( expectation that bad debts will increase).
 But someone messed up in not following the rules for such a capital raising and one can't blame the instos for acting up. After all, they were entitled to assume that all relevant information had been disclosed.


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## tech/a (18 December 2008)

Anyone got a pre open depth opening average for CBA?
Just interested in seeing how the market views the current debacle.
I have a feeling this may spike low then be bought up to parity.


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## captain black (18 December 2008)

tech/a said:


> Anyone got a pre open depth opening average for CBA?
> Just interested in seeing how the market views the current debacle.
> I have a feeling this may spike low then be bought up to parity.




Match price is 26.24 at the moment John. That'll wiggle around a bit as we get closer to the open I'd imagine.


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## sails (18 December 2008)

captain black said:


> Match price is 26.24 at the moment John. That'll wiggle around a bit as we get closer to the open I'd imagine.




Currently 32.06   Probably not finished wiggling yet.  However SPI futures expiry can do strange things to the blue chips esp in the morning...


EDIT: ...and a few minutes later it's down to 25.99 - bit more than wiggling lol


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## cuttlefish (18 December 2008)

Is its status still showing as trading halt?  I"m assuming it will open with the open regardless as per yesterdays announcement but its not showing as normal to me at the moment its still showing trading halt.


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## sails (18 December 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> Is its status still showing as trading halt?  I"m assuming it will open with the open regardless as per yesterdays announcement but its not showing as normal to me at the moment its still showing trading halt.




No sign of it on Iress and it appears to be in pre-open. Pretty sure one of the statements yesterday said it would be the earliest of opening this morning or a statement release yesterday.


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## Nyden (18 December 2008)

sails said:


> No sign of it on Iress and it appears to be in pre-open. Pretty sure one of the statements yesterday said it would be the earliest of opening this morning or a statement release yesterday.




Well, it apparently is still in halt - my question is why?

I would really just like to see what price it opens up as, jeez - what a time to pick up a small buy it was :

Probably an ASIC investigation announcement to come, followed up by another botched capital raising, and some write downs!


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## sails (18 December 2008)

sails said:


> No sign of it on Iress and it appears to be in pre-open. Pretty sure one of the statements yesterday said it would be the earliest of opening this morning or a statement release yesterday.




My mistake - it is still in a halt (was looking in the wrong column ).  Wonder what they will do with options expiry today for CBA - will go and check the asx website - failing that will phone the broker.


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## cuttlefish (18 December 2008)

Well no new updates from the company but still in trading halt in spite of the announcement yesterday saying it would resume at open today .. ?!?

I phoned the options desk and *IF* it is still in trading halt then the Dec options will still open for trading today at 2pm till close.   If the stock doesn't resume prior to close, auto exercise will be based on the close price _before_ the trading halt.  (so a ridiculous price for auto exercise imo - so if holding ITM calls based on a $29 price take note! - because there's an opportunity to close out the position between 2 and 4:30 p.m. today.


Of course if it comes out of trading halt prior to 2:00 p.m. then the options will resume as normal and the price for autoexercise will be the closing price of the underlying stock at close today.

Disclaimer: This is my interpretation - refer to original announcement from ASX for clarification don't trust my waffle.


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## Aussiejeff (18 December 2008)

Nyden said:


> Well, it apparently is still in halt - my question is why?
> 
> I would really just like to see what price it opens up as, jeez - what a time to pick up a small buy it was :
> 
> Probably an ASIC investigation announcement to come, followed up by another botched capital raising, and some write downs!




Stuff the shares.

I just want my NETBANK facility BACK - NOW!!!    (been down since yesterday lunchtime)

Here is their response right now...

------------


***An important message from NetBank

NetBank is temporarily unavailable. This may be due to:

    * Very high usage;
    * Scheduled maintenance; or
    * Technical difficulties.

The Commonwealth Bank apologises for any inconvenience that this may cause.

---------------


CBA A$$holes.... this is the 21st Century? Why are servers always crashing? Idiots.

Edit: Oh! Mebbe the Gummint is running it's Anti-pr0n Filter Trial and "Bank" sounds too much like "Wank"!!! BLOCKED??


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## sails (18 December 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> Well no new updates from the company but still in trading halt in spite of the announcement yesterday saying it would resume at open today .. ?!?
> 
> I phoned the options desk and *IF* it is still in trading halt then the Dec options will still open for trading today at 2pm till close.   If the stock doesn't resume prior to close, auto exercise will be based on the close price _before_ the trading halt.  (so a ridiculous price for auto exercise imo - so if holding ITM calls based on a $29 price take note! - because there's an opportunity to close out the position between 2 and 4:30 p.m. today.
> 
> ...




That's how I understand it too - here's the link from the ASX options notices: http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/notices/2008/Clm23508.pdf


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## cuttlefish (18 December 2008)

> I just want my NETBANK facility BACK - NOW!!!   (been down since yesterday lunchtime)




Jeff - it appears to be working now.

I had problems yesterday for quite a while with internet explorer, but then tried with firefox and was able to log in straightaway.  (something to consider trying if it stops working again).


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## cuttlefish (18 December 2008)

Thanks for the link sails.  I see that all series will be open not just Dec series.
Will be interesting to see what the spreads look like.



..........100characters


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## Aussiejeff (18 December 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> Jeff - it appears to be working now.
> 
> I had problems yesterday for quite a while with internet explorer, but then tried with firefox and was able to log in straightaway.  (something to consider trying if it stops working again).





Uh-uh. I always use Firefox, and it was nada for me all yestrday arvo and this morning. 

Finally got through just then.. 

Using the latest 3.0.5 version of FF too (out today).

*phew* - I had some bills and Xmas "gifts" to transfer so wasn't keen on using CBA's freakin' phone system!

Cheers anyway...


aj


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## cuttlefish (18 December 2008)

Update:   Ignore all previous commentary.   There are several announcements out and trading will resume at 11:10 a.m.   Its in pre-open now.


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## sails (18 December 2008)

Notice come through on Iress - says opening at 11.10

sorry nothing more to add for the 100 characters .....................


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## Nyden (18 December 2008)

sails said:


> Notice come through on Iress - says opening at 11.10
> 
> sorry nothing more to add for the 100 characters .....................




Sure there is. You could have mentioned that as per their announcement, they have finalised the $2 billion - counting the $300 million-something sold to ML at the higher price of $28.34 (bringing the average price up a little).

Certainly looks to be a wee bit of a blood bath though. Bless risk management  Who says there's no merit to limiting exposure to individual stocks


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## Sean K (18 December 2008)

Gents, and others, please remember to try and hide the fact that you are padding posts to comply with the 100 character rule.

I find adding a few funny comments works better than ...........................

Or, damn this 100 character rule!!!

Cheers,
kennas


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## sails (18 December 2008)

Nyden said:


> Sure there is. You could have mentioned that as per their announcement, they have finalised the $2 billion - counting the $300 million-something sold to ML at the higher price of $28.34 (bringing the average price up a little).




Actually hadn't read the full thing when I posted - so thanks for completing the post .   The main thing is the halt has been lifted....


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## storchyman (18 December 2008)

I would have been a very happy boy if the call i sold the other day @$29 had of been exercised, damn them for resuming trading


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## sails (18 December 2008)

kennas said:


> Gents, and *others*, please remember to try and hide the fact that you are padding posts to comply with the 100 character rule.
> 
> I find adding a few funny comments works better than ...........................
> 
> ...




Sorry Kennas - I'm not used to this 100 character rule - don't often post in the stock threads - will go back to my corner in the derivates 

Yours faithfully,

*Others*


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## Nyden (18 December 2008)

storchyman said:


> I would have been a very happy boy if the call i sold the other day @$29 had of been exercised, damn them for resuming trading




I'd have been a happy boy too, if I had sold in profit before this mess  Ouch! That knife knicked my finger :

It has passed my manual stop, but I'm unsure as to whether this is a panic exit, or a proper downfall  I think I'll leave it, and adjust it a wee bit. Watch this space of regret!


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## Sean K (18 December 2008)

sails said:


> Sorry Kennas - I'm not used to this 100 character rule - don't often post in the stock threads - will go back to my corner in the derivates
> 
> Yours faithfully,
> 
> *Others*



Ah, sorry Sails, I didn't realise you were an 'other'. 

What I actually meant was, 'ladies and gents, and others'.

Hope that's better.

kennas


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## Sean K (18 December 2008)

I've caught the knife at 26.10. 

No blood oozing yet.

Have band aides handy.

And 000 on speed dial.


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## Ashsaege (18 December 2008)

kennas said:


> I've caught the knife at 26.10.
> 
> No blood oozing yet.
> 
> ...




I'm expecting to see a short term bounce. But I dont think we have seen the bottom yet... remember bottom pickers get smelly fingers!

I don't hold CBA, though if they drop well below $20 then i might get on!


----------



## cuttlefish (18 December 2008)

If buying in for a long term investment I reckon its brave.  Short term trading I have no opinion one way or another.  

They will probably need to do more capital raisings and there will probably be more unpleasant bad debt surprises before this economic downturn is over imo.


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## honey85 (18 December 2008)

Good one Nick. Love those technical stuff.

To all newcomers like myself, please do not take ppl's advice directly


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## Sean K (2 January 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> I feel the best trade here is awaiting the completion of the larger degree wave-4 and attempting to short sell, most likely with options or warrants, for the last run lower. A very aggressive trader may attempt to catch the bounce but I'd be very wary.



A decent bounce as you suggested Nick. 

When do you look at a short in this circumstance? 

Cheers,
kennas


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## M34N (2 January 2009)

FWIW, bought in a while ago at around $27 mark and sold out this morning abit above the $29 level. Has out-performed some of its peers lately (namely NAB); don't trust holding any stock for too long. CBA seems to love get stuck in those trading ranges for many months as has happened in the past year or so... or at the very least waiting for it to show a clear sign either up or down.


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## honey85 (2 January 2009)

I would love it to match more closely with nick's: Quite suprised that CBA is doing better than other banks!


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## Aussiest (23 January 2009)

What is going on with the CBA? 

What does Funds Under Administration mean? As per their latest ASX release?


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## tcoates (23 January 2009)

RE:

What does Funds Under Administration mean? As per their latest ASX release?

Check out this document. 

Funds Management Industry Market Share: Which one to use?

In the _funds_ management industry, there are many measures of _funds under_ management. (FUM) and _funds under administration_ (_FUA_) published by various *...*

http://www.b-d-p.com/images/uploaded/FundsMgtIndustryMarketShare_20061101.pdf

It might reveal what you are looking for?


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## mattlaw (23 January 2009)

FUA means that is how much investors have invested with them. Also referred to as FUM (Funds Under Management)


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## Aussiest (23 January 2009)

mattlaw said:


> FUA means that is how much investors have invested with them. Also referred to as FUM (Funds Under Management)




Thanks Matt and tcoate (having a look at your doc now).

That clears things up a bit.

When you say "investors", do you mean "shareholders"? 

Or, does it mean people who have their super funds there, or some other type of "investor"?


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## cuttlefish (23 January 2009)

All banks are tanking today (along with the market).  (in fact as I type CBA is down 2.8% and the XAO is down 2.8% - so nothing  exceptional about todays fall in CBA's share price).

My view is that all banks are going to continue to suffer - their business is loaning lots of people/businesses lots of money.  Their profitability relies on those people/businesses being able to pay that money back, and if they can't, on being able to sell the assets that secure those loans to recoup the funds.    Businesses are failing, people are losing their jobs,  asset prices are plumetting.   The banks are very leveraged to all of this.  Look to what has happened to the US and UK banks to get an idea of what we are in store for here in my view.


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## Aussiejeff (23 January 2009)

cuttlefish said:


> All banks are tanking today (along with the market).  (in fact as I type CBA is down 2.8% and the XAO is down 2.8% - so nothing  exceptional about todays fall in CBA's share price).
> 
> My view is that all banks are going to continue to suffer - their business is loaning lots of people/businesses lots of money.  Their profitability relies on those people/businesses being able to pay that money back, and if they can't, *on being able to sell the assets that secure those loans to recoup the funds*.    Businesses are failing, people are losing their jobs,  asset prices are plumetting.   The banks are very leveraged to all of this.  Look to what has happened to the US and UK banks to get an idea of what we are in store for here in my view.




Yeah. It's all very well for governments and banks to trumpet on about securities or treasuries being "asset backed this" and "asset backed" that.

The frightening fact is that we are facing a future where country-loads of assets are going to be tipped into the mega "For Sale" basket - then into an even more mega "Can't Be Sold At Almost Any Price Even In A Panic Market" basket. 

This is the reason why so many banks are so fearful of lending to small, medium and large businesses - regardless of how much Gummints exhort them to LEND, LEND, LEND. Many of those business "assets" they are gaining covenant over may well become relatively worthless within a short span of time.  


IMO


aj


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## M34N (23 January 2009)

CBA now trading near 10 year lows - on par with a lot of banks across the ASX and even the S&P500... will be interesting to see if these levels get breached. I think technically speaking we may get a bounce off these levels, and today considering the markets are closed on Monday for Australia Day, no-one is willing to hold for any 'skeletons' that may pop out overseas during the long weekend.

Scary chart attached... very bearish to say the least.


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## MR. (23 January 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Yeah. It's all very well for governments and banks to trumpet on about securities or treasuries being "asset backed this" and "asset backed" that.
> 
> The frightening fact is that we are facing a future where country-loads of assets are going to be tipped into the mega "For Sale" basket - then into an even more mega "Can't Be Sold At Almost Any Price Even In A Panic Market" basket.




I'd rather have deposits backed by the Australian Gov' than some of these other countries!  Look at our Gov's debt position, although this will now change. Just put on with CBA 3 years at 5.5%. I have faith in our Gov', sorry, not the bank!


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## Logique (25 January 2009)

Look at the current state of failing companies in the loan book, such as Babcock and Brown, and if there others out there that we (and CBA) don't know about yet. And next month CBA will have to announce results and a dividend.  

So a test of the $20 level wouldn't surprise me, that is 10 year lows. If it happens, I'd expect sub $20 CBA shares to cause a lot of economic concern.

I have attached a chart, a fair bit of long term price support at 23-24 (currently at 24.07).


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## drsmith (25 January 2009)

On Friday evening there was a brief comment on the ABC TV news that in the last two months of 2008 Bankwest had a 20% rise in the number of home loan borrowers having trouble meeting their repayments.


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## Julia (25 January 2009)

MR. said:


> I'd rather have deposits backed by the Australian Gov' than some of these other countries!  Look at our Gov's debt position, although this will now change. Just put on with CBA 3 years at 5.5%. I have faith in our Gov', sorry, not the bank!



Three years seems a long time to tie the funds up.  Is this money you'd previously had in shares, or do you have a long term preference for cash?


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## MR. (25 January 2009)

Julia said:


> Three years seems a long time to tie the funds up.  Is this money you'd previously had in shares, or do you have a long term preference for cash?




Hello Julia. Have read many of your posts before. I do recall you also re-newing some term deposit/s recently as well.  

What term have you locked into? 

But you are very correct in saying that it is a long time to lock up funds. It is by far the longest I have locked up funds for before. (Hope I don't break it) but if I do it will be worth it. Three years is such a long time away!  Would have locked in a little earlier when the rates were better but I was unable.

Yes part of this money was in shares. But I have had 80% of total investments in cash for past 12 months on short termers with the remaining 20% in shares.  Have a couple of short termers also at 3mths. For the 3 years I have locked in 40%.  

Perhaps you could reply in the thread "Interest Rates" General Chat!


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## honey85 (2 February 2009)

Announcement just been made on asx.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/cba-expects-firsthalf-profit-slump-20090202-7vmv.html

Opinion anyone?


Honey85
newbie


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## dirty_harry (2 February 2009)

I'd say hang in there for long term. There is a risk of dilution from capital raisings with all the big 4 if things get really bad, but they are ridiculous cash machines in Australia and their competition is being wiped out. They are still making huge profits while making large provisions but I think the key is how bad the housing market gets from here on.


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## Econinvestor (3 February 2009)

For parallels to Australian banks, you've got to be concerned that US banks, even the large commercial ones like Bank of America, have been hammered so badly. I've been following the stock a bit and it has been hugely volatile. Last night, for example:

Bank of America Corporation 	BAC 	6.00 	-0.58 (-8.81%)

Before this it has gone up and down some days near 15 - 20 %.

What is happening there? Does anyone think there are lessons for Australian banks?


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## oldblue (3 February 2009)

The US banks have been shot down by their exposures to toxic derivatives as well as bad lending. 
Aussie banks have had minimal involvement with these derivatives, or so they say and I would think they wouldn't dare to have not come clean about it by now if that was not the case.
Sure, they will have more bad debts and that's what they are increasing their provisions for. I'd be more worried about some of the regionals such as BOQ and BEN who seem to be content to see their provisioning actually fall as a proportion of assets.
Some reduction in divs is almost inevitable but yields will still look pretty good in these times of lower interest rates, even if divs were to be cut in half!


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## honey85 (3 February 2009)

Jumped 7.8% now. Wonder if it would last... would love to see how the market will react to the interest rate cut today.

honey85
newbie


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## oldblue (3 February 2009)

honey85 said:


> Jumped 7.8% now. Wonder if it would last... would love to see how the market will react to the interest rate cut today.
> 
> honey85
> newbie




I would say that the market has already priced in a fairly substantial cut, at least as far as the banks are concerned.
Let's hope it's justified.


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## vincent191 (3 February 2009)

Don't forget short selling is still ban for bank stock. What will happen when the ban is lifted in March? Will today's gains be wiped out when short selling comes back?

Many overseas hedge funds seems to think Australian banks are "over-valued" and are tipped to start shorting Australian banks when the ban is lifted.

I am taking some profit today and be prepared to forego the interim dividend. CBA goes ex-dividend 16 Feb.

Anyone got a different view point???


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## Old Mate (3 February 2009)

I don't think this surge will hold up so I've pulled out with a nice little profit. Will no doubt be proven wrong though


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## nomore4s (3 February 2009)

Old Mate said:


> I don't think this surge will hold up so I've pulled out with a nice little profit. Will no doubt be proven wrong though




I think we could see a rally till the 11th of Feb when the full half year results are released and then we could see a sell off, my


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## Econinvestor (3 February 2009)

I think the thing to focus on with CBA is their *phenomenal* revenue and profit performance over a time when everybody was predicting "the new great depression". 

A stock is the net present value of its future stream of profits, so news affecting profits is all we need to know. A quick back of the envelope calculation, based on fundamentals, suggests a target price:

The stock was trading at around $43 even as late as October last year, as things were starting to crumble for other stocks. Their expected profit is 2 bn (according to the ASX announcement of Feb 2), which is "16% lower than than the prior comparative period" (read the announcement and check).

Therefore the target price should be $43 less 16%, i.e. approx $37, if we think that the original market valuation -- which incidently stood March through October 2008 -- is accurate.

The current price is $29... need I say more?


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## GumbyLearner (3 February 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> I think the thing to focus on with CBA is their *phenomenal* revenue and profit performance over a time when everybody was predicting "the new great depression".
> 
> A stock is the net present value of its future stream of profits, so news affecting profits is all we need to know. A quick back of the envelope calculation, based on fundamentals, suggests a target price:
> 
> ...




Best bank in OZ by far! Always been an admirer of CBA. They are a bank that really check out WHO they are lending to and do the groundwork before saying yes. Great bank with great products. 

Of course I thnik they are the best IMHO! But Do Your Own Research! Plenty out there without the same practices! JMO!


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## Julia (3 February 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> I think the thing to focus on with CBA is their *phenomenal* revenue and profit performance over a time when everybody was predicting "the new great depression".
> 
> A stock is the net present value of its future stream of profits, so news affecting profits is all we need to know. A quick back of the envelope calculation, based on fundamentals, suggests a target price:
> 
> ...



I'd hate to suggest you might be ramping this stock.
A somewhat more objective view might be this from "The Australian", taken with thanks from another thread:


> n the past year Commonwealth Bank, under the watch of Ralph Norris, has seen its share price underperform the rest of the banking sector, falling 51 per cent to its latest close of $26.90, which equates to a loss of $40 billion from its market capitalisation.
> 
> The next biggest loser was ANZ, which has watched 46 per cent wiped from its share price.
> 
> ...


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## oldblue (4 February 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Best bank in OZ by far! Always been an admirer of CBA. They are a bank that really check out WHO they are lending to and do the groundwork before saying yes. Great bank with great products.
> 
> Of course I thnik they are the best IMHO! But Do Your Own Research! Plenty out there without the same practices! JMO!




CBA may or may not be the best bank in OZ but as Julia's post mentions, they have also had their share of bad lending/bad debts.
The important point is that the four majors have all reacted to the new circumstances with increased provisioning which, although will hurt profits meanwhile, will stand them in good stead in the future.
By the way, profits and divs could stand a cut by half and the yield would still look pretty good in today's low interest environment.


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## Logique (4 February 2009)

Suspect this is just a relief rally, the (still only a) prediction of half yr earnings not being as bad as analyst predictions.  

When calmer analysis is possible, it might sink in that half year expected profit, on CBA's recent announcement, will be 16% lower than than the prior comparative period.


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## juw177 (4 February 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> A stock is the net present value of its future stream of profits




You are assuming past profits predicts future profits. They don't, however their balance sheet might. Unfortunately, CBA like all the other banks have not yet come clean with their losses so nobody really knows, but if they have to hide it, you can bet it is bad.

All the big US banks posted record profits in 2007. It does not stop them from imploding when the true value of their balance sheet catches up to them.


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## oldblue (4 February 2009)

Bad debts don't all become apparent together - it's a " moving feast" - no, that's not a good description but I hope you get my drift.
So it's not necessarily a case of not coming clean but more a matter of not having a crystal ball. At least, the majors are doing the sensible thing and building up their provisions.


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## juw177 (4 February 2009)

oldblue, you are wrong.

Provisions do not take away risk, nothing can. The end result will be that someone takes the loss, and it will either be the bank or the government through taxpayer money.

Regulation does not require that they disclose the risk taken by their level 2 / 3 assets let alone write them down to market price . If things are bad, banks have no incentive to disclose. Transparency does not require any crystal ball, the free market will sort it out as it always does.


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## oldblue (4 February 2009)

No, I'm not saying that they are taking away the risk. Merely that they are increasing their provisions, at the expense of currently reported profits, so that when the bad debts do materialise they have some capacity to meet them.


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## juw177 (4 February 2009)

Provisioning for bad debt does not give them any more capacity to meet their debt obligations as it does not create any capital or reduce risk exposure. But it is a step in the right direction to start being more honest with the risk they had been taking on.


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## oldblue (4 February 2009)

Provisioning *does* give them more capacity to meet bad debts insofar as it reduces reported profits and thereby reduces the capacity to pay out earnings as dividends. Provided, of course, that the company doesn't increase the payout ratio to compensate for the lower earnings.


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## Econinvestor (4 February 2009)

Julia said:


> I'd hate to suggest you might be ramping this stock.
> A somewhat more objective view might be this from "The Australian", taken with thanks from another thread:




How about looking at the logic of the post, and then giving a critique of the analysis? Then we can all get somewhere, and do away with silly attributions about motives. If you can come up with a flaw in the logic, go for it...

Financial journalism is of such poor quality, that I avoid paying it much attention, and when I do, I look for original sources. The Australian often fails to cite its data sources, quotes stockbrokers opinions without attached reasons, etc. 

So: can you rise to my challenge and give your reasons? It would help us all.


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## Econinvestor (4 February 2009)

PS, Julia: 

Underlying my post is a forecast in Australia of zero growth or a mild recession at worst. Why should all these loans go bad in such a scenario? 

The problem with these CLSA forecasts is they exaggerate the severity of the problem for Australia. As I said, no reasons are given by the stockbrokers for the rise in bankruptcies, no mention at all in the article of reasons for a deeper recession than has been forecast: It is all predicated on a need to raise capital due to imaginary bad debts. Where is the evidence that we will have such a severe downturn?


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## juw177 (4 February 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> The problem with these CLSA forecasts is they exaggerate the severity of the problem for Australia. As I said, no reasons are given by the stockbrokers for the rise in bankruptcies, no mention at all in the article of reasons for a deeper recession than has been forecast: It is all predicated on a need to raise capital due to imaginary bad debts. Where is the evidence that we will have such a severe downturn?




If you care to research on the cause of the unsustainable credit boom instead of reading "poor quality financial journalism" you will see that there is a strong fundamental reason for the bankruptcies and the looming depression. Zero growth is a very conservative estimate.

Imaginary bad debts? More like imaginary profits for the last 10 years. The government, stockbrokers and CEOs will never tell you that the bad debts is caused by fraudulent lending through understatement of risk. The evidence is right in front of you: stock prices, AUD/USD, corporate bonds, government bonds, real estate. The market does not lie.


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## Econinvestor (4 February 2009)

juw177 said:


> If you care to research on the cause of the unsustainable credit boom instead of reading "poor quality financial journalism" you will see that there is a strong fundamental reason for the bankruptcies and the looming depression. Zero growth is a very conservative estimate.
> 
> Imaginary bad debts? More like imaginary profits for the last 10 years. The government, stockbrokers and CEOs will never tell you that the bad debts is caused by fraudulent lending through understatement of risk. The evidence is right in front of you: stock prices, AUD/USD, corporate bonds, government bonds, real estate. The market does not lie.




As I said: where is the evidence of a bad recession, i.e. where are the GDP numbers you are working with, where is the forecast, what is the methodology?  I've incorporated the bad debts in my analysis--pretty bad at 16%, but still giving a stock price of $37 for CBA. And that's a bad case scenario of 16% bad debts every year to eternity!

 Your "evidence" of further bad debts via a recession is just a here-say rant, and until you give me hard evidence, I'm sorry, but why should I take what you say seriously? We are trying to invest wisely here...


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## juw177 (4 February 2009)

Do you have any feel for market dynamics and economic indicators? If not, what about history?

GDP is lagging, not to mention it mostly consisted of artificial demand created by cheap credit. Why don't you look at bond yields, default rates, market capital, agency spreads, corporate bankruptcies, real estate prices, government debt, the list goes on. If that is not evidence, I don't know what is.

You are coming here with a theory and asking me to prove you wrong. I will not argue with you like that.


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## Econinvestor (5 February 2009)

juw177 said:


> Do you have any feel for market dynamics and economic indicators? If not, what about history?
> 
> GDP is lagging, not to mention it mostly consisted of artificial demand created by cheap credit. Why don't you look at bond yields, default rates, market capital, agency spreads, corporate bankruptcies, real estate prices, government debt, the list goes on. If that is not evidence, I don't know what is.
> 
> You are coming here with a theory and asking me to prove you wrong. I will not argue with you like that.




No, I come to you with facts and ask you for your facts-- in 'fact' yours is all theory, no evidence.

Also GDP *isn't* lagging, unless we are in a recession now, which is possible, but we will only know looking back at revised data. What is your source for lagging GDP, and what is the figure????

The IMF has forecast a mild recession, private commentators like Access Economics also, others a slowdown or zero growth with no recession. 

Your panic list says nothing about a forecast of a recession, which is sustained negative growth. You also provide no numbers.Give me some numbers otherwise, as I said, why should I listen? I've given you my numbers: mild recession (usually a 1 % contraction), a share price ($43 based on six months of stable trade), a write down of bad assets of 16% per annum. Conclusion $37 CBA price.


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## juw177 (5 February 2009)

Sigh... alright man. Be sure to come back in 6 months time and let me know how your bank stock portfolio goes.


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## investorpaul (5 February 2009)

We wont have any idea about where the value of a bank stock should be for another 6 months, there is no harm in waiting on the side lines for a while, its not going to do any thing magic at the moment.


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## dirty_harry (7 February 2009)

The big 4 have bad news still to come out obviously and their share prices have been hammered. It depends on how bad these writeoffs will get so it's not without risk, especially with some of the rumours you hear. However so far all provisions are easily offset by profits. A well informed CBA employee told me in '93 not to buy CBA what ever you do - worst advice of the decade.
The big 4 operating profits are still rising by 10%+ just like they have year in year out in the past. So if they can get over their writeoffs say within a couple of years they are all less than half their longer term price. Everyone is completely negative on them right now, and are very short term thinkers.
One thing to note, Buffett has been buying Wells Fargo and it's been going down since. They reported a loss recently, but he looks long term. They bounced 17% last night, so it goes to show how things can move when sentiment changes. When the buying starts it will be quick.


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## joeyr46 (7 February 2009)

Not sure if the banks are a good thing long term. they call what other people owe them there assets so they may have alot more pain to go thru first
From this thread and other bank threads I would not say people are bearish 
(Also Warren Buffet may be correct but he is only human and his time was then in the bull market may not be right now) The other thing banks make a lot of money from  fees and if we stop borrowing(which has started to happen by the slowdown in house sales and approvals let alone business owners cutting back on investments  then the banks have a long way to still go down without a lot of toxic debt (which could still happen ) remember this is only stage 1 of the recession, even if it turns out to be only mild it still has a long way to go time wise.
The other thing that usually occurs is the leaders of the last boom are not the good stocks next time in fact when you look at charts the banks are only just starting down even if they do have a bounce sometime this year


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## CanOz (17 February 2009)

A very good mate of mine just bought CBA the other day at 28 ish. I gave him this chart today and said to watch out for the wedge target which is also solid resistance. He's holding out for the Div.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Logique (17 February 2009)

Yes this is my thinking also, was a little surprised to see it shoot up to $31, even if it was cum dividend. Canaussieuck, what is your wedge target ~$20?


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## oremo (12 March 2009)

I'm interested in the wedge target as well.
I don't know too much about charting but the shape is interesting. can someone shed any light on how it works?

:bounce:


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## Logique (13 March 2009)

In haste, I think I inadvertently placed the wrong interpretation on CanOz's chart. I believe it was actually presented as a falling wedge pattern, with a bullish breakout at the beginning of February, when it ran from 27 to 32, with a breakout target and resistance at 34.  To confirm a breakout you'd like it to get above 30 and continue upward.  

My talk of 20 was about where the upper and lower lines might have converged if the wedge had been maintained. So the call is whether it will continue as a breakout with legs, or whether the last 5 weeks have just been the start of a new downtrend.

Personally think it would be brave to call the bottom on the banks just yet, but you never know.


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## Tysonboss1 (18 March 2009)

Does anyone know when the shares for the recent capital raising are going to be issued.

Is it this month of next month


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## stl_08 (24 March 2009)

Finally the divident came, does any1 know why CBS sunk today underperforming the other big 4? Profit taking or suming to do with the dividend?
Also when do the spp shares come online?


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## Old Mate (24 March 2009)

stl_08 said:


> Finally the divident came, does any1 know why CBS sunk today underperforming the other big 4? Profit taking or suming to do with the dividend?
> Also when do the spp shares come online?




I think the dividend release pulled it down and I think it was also due for a pullback after it's great rally of late.


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## roofa (24 March 2009)

stl_08 said:


> Finally the divident came, does any1 know why CBS sunk today underperforming the other big 4? Profit taking or suming to do with the dividend?
> Also when do the spp shares come online?




CBA had outperformed the other 3 until today, WBC is now infront of CBA by 1.5%. Followed by ANZ and then NAB.


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## stl_08 (24 March 2009)

I meant cba, and also when A company goes ex dividend why does there share price drop? And who's your pic out of the top4?


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## semochen (24 March 2009)

I'd say it's people selling the SPP to take a profit.. as I did for half of my purchase (these shares came on yesterday, but today's the first day they can be traded.. so today was the day they were sold)

Selling today at $36 would mean a profit of 38%... and since it has gone up by roughly the same amount in the recent rally, and with the massive gain in the US last night, traders would likely take the profit 

Also... the day dividends go into your account (as today) has nothing to with the share price.. only the ex-div date


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## Julia (24 March 2009)

stl_08 said:


> I meant cba, and also when A company goes ex dividend why does there share price drop?



Just think about it for a minute:  I'm sure you can answer your own question.
If you buy it before it goes ex-dividend, what do you get that you don't get after it goes ex?
Wouldn't the share be valued accordingly?
Then as far as today's fall is concerned, I'd expect also some profit taking.


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## stl_08 (25 March 2009)

yes I see now julia, also will cba send a letter saying how many shares I now have after the spp and what the average price of my entry into the stock now is?


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## Julia (25 March 2009)

stl_08 said:


> yes I see now julia, also will cba send a letter saying how many shares I now have after the spp and what the average price of my entry into the stock now is?



Presumably you are using an online broker?   Their website will show what shares you own.   I'm only familiar with Etrade but I imagine all brokers have the facility for you to set your own parameters on your p/f page, including "show average price".


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## Econinvestor (14 April 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> No, I come to you with facts and ask you for your facts-- in 'fact' yours is all theory, no evidence.
> 
> Also GDP *isn't* lagging, unless we are in a recession now, which is possible, but we will only know looking back at revised data. What is your source for lagging GDP, and what is the figure????
> 
> ...






juw177 said:


> Sigh... alright man. Be sure to come back in 6 months time and let me know how your bank stock portfolio goes.




Here I am Julia, back in way less than six months, and CBA has hit $37. 

As I said, you can't beat logical analysis on fundamentals. I hate to say I told you so, but... then again I'm lying: I quite like to say it because you were so aggressive and didn't give a logical answer to reasonable questions:bananasmi

If you'd bought CBA when I suggested, you'd have made over 25% return.

I've also posted on CSL that it would go to 36 or so. It did. Now it is trading well below fundamental value and I'm buying. Barring ideosyncratic bad news, it will go back to 36 or so for the same reasons I gave last time. Made 6k on it last cycle.


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## Julia (15 April 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> Here I am Julia, back in way less than six months, and CBA has hit $37.



I don't know why you're addressing this remark to me.  It was juw who mentioned six months.

I have not made any predictions about CBA.  Merely provided a quote from a financial commentator.

And if you 'can't beat logical analysis on fundamentals' I wonder why so many technical traders make as much as they do when they frequently haven't the faintest notion what the company even does!


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## Econinvestor (15 April 2009)

Julia said:


> I don't know why you're addressing this remark to me.  It was juw who mentioned six months.
> 
> I have not made any predictions about CBA.  Merely provided a quote from a financial commentator.
> 
> And if you 'can't beat logical analysis on fundamentals' I wonder why so many technical traders make as much as they do when they frequently haven't the faintest notion what the company even does!




Technical traders make money in any market that is rising. It is possible to show theoretically (and empirically) that any random purchasing strategy will make money in a rising market. There will be a distribution of outcomes as well. Some of them will do extremely well based simply on luck, others badly. But on average, in a rising market, my monkey will make money.

The big issue in finances, so I am told, is whether anybody can make more than the market return, even fundamentals traders. I believe that the latter can, and the former may as well be tossing coins.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 April 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> The big issue in finances, so I am told, is whether anybody can make more than the market return, even fundamentals traders. I believe that the latter can, and the former may as well be tossing coins.




Ah!! Its good to see that we get a revolving line of so called fundies willing to claim the TA guys can't do what we/they do year in year out. Luckily they refresh so often, it doesn't take them long before they are off trying to make a buck some other way. :


----------



## nomore4s (15 April 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> Technical traders make money in any market that is rising. It is possible to show theoretically (and empirically) that any random purchasing strategy will make money in a rising market. There will be a distribution of outcomes as well. Some of them will do extremely well based simply on luck, others badly. But on average, in a rising market, my monkey will make money.
> 
> The big issue in finances, so I am told, is whether anybody can make more than the market return, even fundamentals traders. I believe that the latter can, and the former may as well be tossing coins.




I don't know why I'm bothering but anyway......

TA makes money in any market if applied correctly. FA makes money in any market if applied correctly.

Just because you don't understand TA doesn't mean it doesn't work, don't let your bias to one or the other blind you to other techniques. 

Did it ever occur to you that you could actually improve your trading/investing if you broadened your understanding of other techniques?


----------



## Julia (15 April 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Ah!! Its good to see that we get a revolving line of so called fundies willing to claim the TA guys can't do what we/they do year in year out. Luckily they refresh so often, it doesn't take them long before they are off trying to make a buck some other way. :




Ah, but this time it's different, TH, doncha know!   
You're just an ignorant trader - sadly lacking the ultimate wisdom of your so called fundies!  

Ecoinvestor, maybe take a look at TH's Home Page.  As Nomore4s suggests, you might find something enlightening.


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## Econinvestor (17 April 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Ah!! Its good to see that we get a revolving line of so called fundies willing to claim the TA guys can't do what we/they do year in year out. Luckily they refresh so often, it doesn't take them long before they are off trying to make a buck some other way. :




Here is a challenge for you. Take historic prices of a stock whose name you do not know, taken over dates where you do not know the general market conditions (random dates). TAers claim that they can predict whether or not there will be an increase or a decrease in the SP compared to the index in the week following their analysis, i.e. based only on the chart.

I'll pick 30 stocks, then different dates and give you  truncated charts, and all you have to tell me is whether the stock will beat the market or not in the following week.

I guarantee you will fail, because what we know from rigourous and extensive statistical analysis is that stock prices are martingales.

Put your TA where your mouth is!! Do you have the nerve???


----------



## prawn_86 (17 April 2009)

EI, 

Before you put your foot in it any further i suggest you check out this thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683

TH and other technical traders also readily admit that a lot of practice is spent learning the patterns of particular instruments, so of course a blind chart wont work as they do not know what patterns it is prone to.


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> Put your TA where your mouth is!! Do you have the nerve???




rotflmao.

You truly have no idea. TH puts his money where his mouth is everyday he trades. I suggest you have a look at his blog or even some of his posts on this thread to see just how stupid your request is.

Why don't take some time to learn & understand TA and then you would know it isn't about being right or predicting anything. Traders can run at 30-40% win rates and still be profitable.

There are plenty of TA traders that beat the market year in and year out.


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 April 2009)

Econinvestor said:


> Put your TA where your mouth is!! Do you have the nerve???




That is a ridiculous task. It has nothing to do with how real traders use TA to make money.

DumB!! 

Pull your head in and read through this before you profess to being an expert in something you clearly have little practical knowledge about.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10405


From about post 15


----------



## Aussiest (17 April 2009)

Enough about that. I am wondering when CBA is going to stop rallying? Surely over fair value now?!

I wonder when they're going to lift the ban on shorting financials 

(Comsec says May, but who knows!?).


----------



## Naked shorts (17 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Enough about that. I am wondering when CBA is going to stop rallying? Surely over fair value now?!
> 
> I wonder when they're going to lift the ban on shorting financials
> 
> (Comsec says May, but who knows!?).




Im hoping they dont extend the short on financials to 

No doubt some long-only smuck "investor" like EI will complain to the ASX saying that they can't handle stock prices going down and that they should perpetually go up forever.


----------



## doctorj (17 April 2009)

Lets try to keep this on topic please - CBA, rather than the age old technical vs fundamental arguement.


----------



## white_goodman (26 May 2009)

food for thought.


if it rejects and gets support at current levels i could see it going long... yesterdays bar was an inverted hammer, with the day before showing a hammer....

also got support of 50ema and 200sma (i dont really use but is a good confirmation)


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## cuttlefish (8 July 2009)

Anyone got any short term technical view on CBA?  Looks like potential further downside imo to mid 34.00 support area. Broken some medium term trend support and also a potential h&s'y sort of pattern in recent days - breakdown could possibly send it down to 34.00+ area support?


----------



## cuttlefish (8 July 2009)

Forgot to mention - Volume seems to confirm this picture as well imo - relatively high volumes in the recent price strength hasn't overcome supply, and no strong evidence of demand appearing to accumulate in recent price weakness so price may need to range down more to find demand. (note last bar in chart above is incomplete because its today's bar).


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## Boggo (8 July 2009)

CBA has played by the rules so far, an ABC correction may play out before it continues upwards again.

Just my amateur 

(click to enlarge)


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## Messenger (8 July 2009)

Thanks for all the charts here.

CBA indeed looks like to have a correction.

First step to $34?  Then to ???


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## StevieC (8 July 2009)

Any ideas on when the CBA will go Ex div for the second dividend installment this year?
Steve


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## cuttlefish (8 July 2009)

StevieC said:


> Any ideas on when the CBA will go Ex div for the second dividend installment this year?
> Steve




mid-august I think  (i think ex div 17th Aug but check this).

what more can i offer in response to this question that would make it a hundred characters.


I am of the tentative belief that the date at which the Commonwealth Bank of Australia company, trading as ASX code CBA on the Australian Stock Exchange Limited is going to have its next ex dividend date in the vicinity of the middle of the month of August, in the year 2009, and am of the understanding that the precise date is the 17th of August but I recommend checking this information before relying upon it.

yay 100 characters without any deliberate padding.


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## StevieC (9 July 2009)

thanks Cuttlefish. much appreciated.  Wow I see what you mean re 100 characters. I have not struck that before on a forum.


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## Sean K (9 July 2009)

StevieC said:


> thanks Cuttlefish. much appreciated.  Wow I see what you mean re 100 characters. I have not struck that before on a forum.



Stevie, we also have an infraction system and if you pad out posts to make 100 characters you score a 2 pointer!! Keep it in mind.


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## shag (9 July 2009)

kennas said:


> Stevie, we also have an infraction system and if you pad out posts to make 100 characters you score a 2 pointer!! Keep it in mind.




some of us dont have a hundred characters in our vocab sometimes. like its dam annoying to get the dictionary and thesaurus out all the time. geez its a tough world.
maybe we could just do a bigdog job and paste in daily trades etc to pump out the thing....


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## lianeisme (9 July 2009)

Boggo said:


> CBA has played by the rules so far, an ABC correction may play out before it continues upwards again.
> 
> Just my amateur
> 
> (click to enlarge)




Hello I don't really understand charts I have an idea. Is anyone able to explain these in a very simple context that I could understand. Example what part of the chart shows buy signals, where doe it show the breakout etc.


----------



## lianeisme (7 August 2009)

Does anyone have any idea in regards to the banking sector in Australian  at present.

I am holding  shares in cba,wbc and suncorp   and have been watching every movment  in London and America. Banks are soring however in Australia everyone seems to be sitting on the fence stocks not doing much at all last night with exception to sun

Bac fell by .18% but they were slapped with a heavy fine and still more to come for them so that’s understandable

RBS + 9.75%

LLOY+11.50%

AXP + 3.16%

Citigroup + 6.42% 

This has been the momentum for the past week in both USA and London, However we don't seem to be following in this way with the banking sector in Australia

Has anyone got any idea why the Australian market is so jittery with the banking sector it appears we are sitting in one of the best positions in the world within that sector.

Suncorp has been slapped with a speeding fine but its about time it started speeding nice to see granny out of the slow lane.


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## Sean K (7 August 2009)

Yep, banks have had a poor run since the March bottom. Only up 50% or so. 

I managed to buy this as a knife catch in late Jan and sold for a nice 5% profit. Nice one kennas. My best investment decision this year. 

I think it depends on where you think the overall market is going. Was that a bottom? Do you think this is like the GD and we're heading down to an 80% overall fall. Troubling times.


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## oldblue (7 August 2009)

I think that the major reason is that the Aust banks havn't previously taken the hammering that a lot of overseas banks have. These are now starting to see a bit of a recovery but mostly coming off a very low base.

The market also expects Aust banks to have to keep provisioning for bad debts at a relatively high level for some time yet and possibly also to again raise new capital before too long with the dilutionary effect that this has. Nevertheless, the "four pillars" are ranked in the eight highest rated banks worldwide and this should continue to be the case, IMO.

SUN is a different case with speculation of breakup and/or takeover driving the SP.


----------



## lianeisme (7 August 2009)

I bought SUN at 4.48 still holding this stock has fare exceeded my epections in this short time frame. I was planning on holding for 2 years then selling half of so the rest become free stock this may happen a lot sooner than I thought.
It is a very interesting world we are living in.


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## Faithinchartz (10 August 2009)

juw177 said:


> Sigh... alright man. Be sure to come back in 6 months time and let me know how your bank stock portfolio goes.




Hi Juw177,
I followed your debate with econinvestor with interest. Looks like he or she nailed in on the CBA...well up over $37 (44 in fact) and in less than six months. I'm getting turned of charting after this stuff, but maybe you can restore my faith...


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## Mofra (12 August 2009)

Interesting to read about the $700m+ they are raising via the PERLS V issue announced today.

Raising capital, cutting dividends - is CBA on the acquisition trail again, despite barely bedding down BankWest?


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## ajjack (12 August 2009)

Yeah Mofra you could be right.
BankWest has turned out to be a success for them,
so could they be looking at SUN or BEN?

Perhaps not,  .. that's too obvious.


----------



## asel (13 August 2009)

This will make it the first hybrid raising of the year. I would have much preferred an ordinary equity raising though!


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## michael_selway (15 August 2009)

Mofra said:


> Interesting to read about the $700m+ they are raising via the PERLS V issue announced today.
> 
> Raising capital, cutting dividends - is CBA on the acquisition trail again, despite barely bedding down BankWest?




CBA has doen well yep

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2009 2010 2011 2012 
EPS 292.7 301.3 365.9 442.7 
DPS 228.0 228.0 268.0 317.3 

 6/00  6/01  6/02  6/03  6/04  6/05  6/06  6/07  6/08  6/09  
EPS 189.1 189.6 209.3 157.3 196.8 303.0 296.7 339.7 344.4 292.7 
DPS 130.0 136.0 150.0 154.0 183.0 197.0 224.0 256.0 266.0 228.0 *









> Eric Johnston
> August 12, 2009 - 2:35PM
> While the headlines of Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s annual result look strong in the face of toughest banking market for nearly two decades, it is the quality that counts.
> 
> ...


----------



## nomore4s (28 August 2009)

Mofra said:


> Interesting to read about the $700m+ they are raising via the PERLS V issue announced today.




Has anyone invested in any of the other PERLS? And were you happy with it?

Any hidden pros and cons of investing in something like PERLS?


----------



## boofhead (28 August 2009)

The prospectus lists a lot of cons. Have a read of it.

I had a look at the history of PERLS III and IV. Appears they have traded some periods below their face values. Would I be correct to assume that is mostly related to the lower interest margin? So their price is much tied to interest rates.

PERLS V seems to have a better interest margin so that is likely to trade at better prices compared to III and IV?


----------



## nomore4s (28 August 2009)

boofhead said:


> The prospectus lists a lot of cons. Have a read of it.
> 
> I had a look at the history of PERLS III and IV. Appears they have traded some periods below their face values. Would I be correct to assume that is mostly related to the lower interest margin? So their price is much tied to interest rates.
> 
> PERLS V seems to have a better interest margin so that is likely to trade at better prices compared to III and IV?




Thanks boofhead.

I have read the propectus but I was just interested to see if people who had invested in them before had anything else to add.

I would be looking to hold them for the full 5 years so I'm not too concerned about what they are trading at, would just be looking for the dividend return.


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## boofhead (28 August 2009)

I can't provide advice. When I read of the news I was annoyed CommSec didn't send me an email of the news. Most of the possilities are ok for my needs. I liked the more favourable interest margin although I would have preferred it to be 1% higher - similar to a couple of hybrids of this year. Possibly fully franked has benefits. The reporting of reserve lifing rates by end of year which will hopefully push 90 day BBSW up helps too. I have no idea what will play out though - I'm a newbie. My concern is how Centrelink will treat me.


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## cheeyeen (28 August 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Thanks boofhead.
> 
> I have read the propectus but I was just interested to see if people who had invested in them before had anything else to add.
> 
> I would be looking to hold them for the full 5 years so I'm not too concerned about what they are trading at, would just be looking for the dividend return.




I am actually looking at PERLS III (PCAPA).  The margin is only 1.05% and hence it is trading at 18% discount of face value.   I see it has a potential capital gain is 18/82 = 21.9% in 6.5 year time, equal to 3.37% per year on average.  So if hold to maturity the margin looks like 3.37% + (1.05/0.82 = 1.28%) + (3.3%/0.82 - 3.3% = 0.72%) = 5.37% per year.  Actually, the yield to maturity based on 3.3% BBSW is about 10%p.a. according to Macquarie.  

It is weird that WCTPA which has similar rating and margin of 1% is actually trading at 87AUD (though it is about to go ex-div in one week time, but PCAPA is only 4 weeks away as well).  I think the selling is mainly because people sells it to fund the purchase of the new issue that offers higher yield.  But return wise may be PCAPA is better for long term investor.  There is also tax benefits as you get 50% CGT discount in 6 years time rather than paying marginal tax now.  Just view at it in different angle..


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## Bill M (28 August 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Has anyone invested in any of the other PERLS? And were you happy with it?
> 
> Any hidden pros and cons of investing in something like PERLS?




I invested in PERLS 4. At the time a 1.05% interest margin was great when the RBA rate was around 7%. I was getting 8% return on my funds. I thought getting in on the prospectus was going to be a great deal.

Then interest rates tumbled, along with the stock market in general. Not only did you get get lower interest rates the capital value dropped to around $175 at one stage. I then thought long and hard about this investment and decided to collect one more dividend and sell at a capital loss at around $185. My thoughts were, why own this when I can get fully franked dividends elsewhere at around 8%? I am not sorry I did that at the time because since then PERLS 4 has barely moved where as banks stocks themselves have nearly doubled.

The risk was interest rates plummeting to 3%, nobody saw this coming.

So to PERLS 5, my opinion is that this offer is better than any other CBA PERLS offer thus far. The 3.4% interest rate spread is as good as it gets for a top blue chip company. Sure, Tabcorp and AMP's interest rate spread was slightly more but so was the risk. Would you rather buy Tabcorp bonds with a 4% spread or CBA with a 3.4% spread? I would go CBA anytime.

Another thing is that interest rates are going to be going up, without any doubt in my mind. That means your CBA PERLS 5 will be going up also. You might be buying it at a 3.25% bank bill rate now but where do thing the bank bill rate will be in 2, 3 or 4 years time? I reckon up. So lets say the bank bill rate goes to 7% like it was 2 years ago and it can happen and probably will, then with 3.4% on top of that it brings it to a whopping 10.4% interest rate. It can only mean one thing, that the capital value of PERLS 5 will probably go up also. On the flip side if rates stay the same you still get 6.6% now and your capital looks pretty safe.

I will be buying as much as I can get buy splitting 2 applications in both mine and my wife's name. My aim is get good interest income and possibly some capital growth as well. If the capital growth is anywhere near what TABCORP or AMP got on their offers then I might consider selling them also. Just my opinion.


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## nomore4s (28 August 2009)

Thanks for your thoughts Cheeyeen & BillM.

Bill, your thinking is very similar to mine atm. With a 3.4% spread it is looking very attractive, especially considering we are at or near the bottom of the interest rate cycle imo.

I have bit of money sitting in a term deposit getting cr@p return atm, so am looking for some better return on a % of it. And seeing as the NAB spp got scaled back so much I have a bit extra I could invest in PERLSV.

Any capital gain would a bonus as this would become part of my income portfolio and I'm only really interested in getting a good annual return in d/e's.


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## Zarate (2 September 2009)

Assuming you are in the 30% tax bracket;

If you have money in a cba net saver, you get 2.75% and pay 30% tax on this. If you buy into PERLS V you receive 3.4% above the market rate - call it 3% so 6.8%*0.7 = 4.76% fully franked. So essentially pay no tax on this. Would that be correct?

Cheers.


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## boofhead (2 September 2009)

That would be a resonable assumption, yes but only you have an idea of your full circumstances and things may be a little different. The prospectus does indicate there is a possibility they won't be fully franked. It would be the same as any dividend.


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## Bill M (2 September 2009)

Zarate said:


> Assuming you are in the 30% tax bracket;
> 
> If you have money in a cba net saver, you get 2.75% and pay 30% tax on this. If you buy into PERLS V you receive 3.4% above the market rate - call it 3% so 6.8%*0.7 = 4.76% fully franked. So essentially pay no tax on this. Would that be correct?
> 
> Cheers.




Yes that's correct but I think you meant if the market rate was 3.4%. Anyhow that's why I am taking it up instead doing another term deposit, good luck.


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## Zarate (3 September 2009)

Thanks guys. I think this is a great opportunity. I don't have any money set aside to be able to invest here but will definately tell others of it.


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## sinner (26 October 2009)

Hi guys,

I went short CBA today at 56.07 with SL at 56.37 (above previous swing high).

Here is my justification chart, hopefully this will be a nice moneymaker.


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## cutz (26 October 2009)

Hope it goes well for you sinner.

Out of curiosity are you shorting the stock or using CFD's, it seems like a lot of brokers are experiencing difficulty obtaining (borrowing) stock for this purpose.


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## sinner (26 October 2009)

cutz said:


> Hope it goes well for you sinner.
> 
> Out of curiosity are you shorting the stock or using CFD's, it seems like a lot of brokers are experiencing difficulty obtaining (borrowing) stock for this purpose.




Yes, CFD with IGmarkets. Dodgy I know, but it is a quick yes or no on this one for me either we go above 56.21 today before the close and I will close at a loss or we close below 56.21 in which case I expect CBA to gap down on tomorrows open.

There is definitely a lack of borrowable stock to short the world over, in fact some respected (by me) analysts like the crew at Zero Hedge have been claiming this entire rally is one big short squeeze.


----------



## cutz (26 October 2009)

No worries sinner, as long as it gets the job done.

I'm always wondering who out there is able to short stock without impediment (on the oz market) , nil availability is a real hinderance at times.


----------



## sinner (26 October 2009)

cutz said:


> No worries sinner, as long as it gets the job done.
> 
> I'm always wondering who out there is able to short stock without impediment (on the oz market) , nil availability is a real hinderance at times.




I would say, only the market makers have this ability now. The likes of GS and JPM who have huge piles of their clients stock which they can probably borrow onto the market as sells.

Market makers have also realised they can induce a rally by calling up their clients en masse and forcing short redemptions at market.


----------



## clayton4115 (26 October 2009)

good on you, im about to enter short cba myself.

waiting for the right signal.

i think banks looking overvalued.


----------



## sinner (26 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> good on you, im about to enter short cba myself.
> 
> waiting for the right signal.
> 
> i think banks looking overvalued.




Good to know I'm not the only one. I've been largely ignoring stocks and trading forex these days, because it fits better with my schedule, but seeing that high volume bar into the close on Friday I just had to test it.


----------



## sinner (26 October 2009)

Alright, trading is closed for the day guys.

Pretty happy with my entry as we closed below 56. 

Plan of action on this trade:

Go home, ignore the markets until tomorrow ASX open. If we gap down I will move my stoploss to the entry point to make this a free trade and let it ride till the cows come home.

If I am completely and utterly wrong about what happened on Fridays close then we will gap up tomorrow morning and I will never take another counter-trend trade in my life.


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## nomore4s (26 October 2009)

sinner said:


> Alright, trading is closed for the day guys.
> 
> Pretty happy with my entry as we closed below 56.
> 
> ...




While I understand the basis of you taking this trade it strikes me as having a large reliance on what happens overseas tonight, if the DOW has a strong night there is every chance CBA will open higher and of course if it tanks CBA will open lower.


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## sinner (27 October 2009)

nomore4s said:


> While I understand the basis of you taking this trade it




Yes, my trade is based on the basis of the high volume bar from Friday which I took as "smart money" exiting the market in front of what could be bad news for the financials this week. Did I state otherwise anywhere at all?



> strikes me as having a large reliance on what happens overseas tonight, if the DOW has a strong night there is every chance CBA will open higher and of course if it tanks CBA will open lower




It's pretty naive to think every single stock on the ASX and most indices isn't affected the same way. Trembling Hand once pointed out that during the bull run before 08 crash, if you had gone long the XAO every morning at open and exited every afternoon at close then you would only be up 6 points over 8 years. i.e. 99.9% of the moves which affect all stocks happen when the exchange isn't open at all and just on the basis of index futures movement.

For reference, it's 2 minutes before the open and last night:
DJIA/SP500/QQQQ finished down.
UK Speciality Finance sector closed: -1.53%
UK Banks sector closed: -2.3%
JP Morgan closed: -3.12%


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## nomore4s (27 October 2009)

sinner said:


> Did I state otherwise anywhere at all?




Um no, I thought I said I understood why you took the trade.



> It's pretty naive to think every single stock on the ASX and most indices isn't affected the same way.




I never stated otherwise.

All I was doing was making an observation that this trade had a heavy reliance on one nights movement on the DOW. I wasn't saying this is a good or bad thing was just purely making an observation.


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## swm79 (27 October 2009)

if you disregard the chart and put this trade into fundamentals ...using the context of US dollars being pumped into the CBA over the last few months - hence putting a rocket under the price and pushing it far and beyond where it is valued as a means of dumping the USD... and then taking into account that this week the "reord size" US treasury auction is taking place... in which 60% of all investors are non-resident investors, who will have to buy USD to settle their accounts, funnelling money out of the CBA (and other banks) and into the USD... then your short was actually a very smart trade


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## skyQuake (27 October 2009)

Might want to have a read of this:

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/fo...y-is-a-bubble-set-to-burst-20091025-heo5.html

Our banks are more momentumn than mean reverting


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## swm79 (27 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Might want to have a read of this:
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/fo...y-is-a-bubble-set-to-burst-20091025-heo5.html
> 
> Our banks are more momentumn than mean reverting




was that directed at me?

thats what i was saying with the money being directed into the CBA

scary to think the USD is controlling all of this - esp with the big four banks and BHP and RIO controlling a 1/3 of total market cap.

especially with the Q3 US GDP figures out soon - imo surprise upside


----------



## cutz (27 October 2009)

Relatively heavy volumes on the oppies today, for those of you that are interested the Nov. 54's (puts) have been selling like hotcakes.


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## BradK (28 October 2009)

Looking like a nice little short trade there Sinner. Are you going to keep moving your stop down to lock in some profits? 

Brad


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## sinner (30 October 2009)

Hi BradK,

I posted an update but nomore4s deleted it because it wasn't high on content. Fair enough in my book, ASF is a high quality forum and I have no issues trying to keep it that way.

I closed some of the position out over the last few days to bank some profits ahead of the US GDP figs, but the core position will run on as mentioned in the original trade plan as a FREE TRADE. Stop loss is in place at break even as per original plan. To me there is no point moving stop loss further than original entry as it will remove the trades breathing space. If it gets hit at entry that is fine with me as I already banked some profits.

Shorting CBA was even better than shorting A/U over the last few days, and coupled with GBP/USD longs and USD/CHF shorts over the same period, it has been a great week on the market.

I am levelling my account today to a few core positions and am done for the year! See you Jan 15!


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## swm79 (30 October 2009)

swm79 said:


> imo surprise upside




it's not often that i quote myself.... but hello surprise upside!

but didnt pick the AUD climbing as well... damn it!


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## freebird54 (13 November 2009)

The annual report is a bit of a worry - we cannot get anyone to answer this 

DERIVATIVE POSITION OF CBA IS  OF CONCERN?

On page 130 of the annual report Note 11 of Commonwealth Bank bottom line.

The total recognised derivative assets is $1.35T 08 year and $1.57T for 09 year and increase of $220bn.

If we calculate the fair asset value and fair asset liability for the 08 and 09 years we find they have lost $4.5Bn.

The loss of $4.5bn was confirmed by CBA investor relations but basically said it was immaterial because they take out more derivatives to cover these positions.

My question is........

   Is $1.57Tof derivatives a worry and should investors be concerned about the $4.5Bn loss even if it was covered by new derivatives.

Why in this financial climate would they increase their derivative position by $220Bn in one year.

Was it not these that caused the meltdown?


Can we make sense of this - a T is small on paper a trillion is a lot of money

 and who said another huge bank somewhere in the world is in trouble?

Yes I know deposit a/c are govt. guaranteed FWIW.


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## sinner (22 November 2009)

Very surprised to find this thread dead again, CBA has been leading the market:





Anyway, here is my updated analysis using daily chart. Comments on the chart. If I wasn't already short (first arrow) I would be adding shorts at tomorrows close.


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## WRONG'UN (22 November 2009)

Quote Freebird54: "a trillion is a lot of money"

$1T worth of $100 notes, stacked on top of each other, would make a pile about 1,000km high - well into outer space!


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## Mofra (26 November 2009)

*Bankwest reports reduction in bad loans *

Source The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 22 
 The impairment cycle for Australian banks is improving. Bankwest has improvedits bad loans in the September 2009 quarter by almost $A140 million. Parent Commonwealth Bank of Australia was equally optimistic about the trend 


Interesting to read - could this be a precurser to an improvement in loan quality for the wider CBA loan book (the largest in the land)?


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## sinner (11 January 2010)

Hi guys,

I don't want this to become "sinners bearish on bank stocks" thread so post your comments and input please!

Previous shorts from 56 paid, which indicates to me this price level and above is an alright area to test the market. I am attracted to re-short this stock based on todays volume.

We have had a classic pinbar/upthrust formation on high volume followed by a "no demand bar": an up move on extremely low volume - but still within the range of the prev high vol bar. Further upmove was on even lower volume. It is my opinion that smart money offloaded into todays market strength on the back of gold and other commodities. Remember: professionals only buy weakness and sell strength.

The RSI6 just barely managed to pull of what I would call an acceptable counter-trend divergence (I prefer no more than 7 bars generally, this one is 9) and volume oscillator is simply not convinced that this upmove is genuine. 

CBA has issued just over 300 million AUD in foreign denominated debt in the first week of 2010 alone. I am not convinced financials are valued correctly and would like to profit from a return to more sane price valuation levels for this stock. I am also seeing some preliminary signs of index futures rolling over based on their On Balance Volume. Holding shorts from 56.68 with a 10c stop. Would like to see a break and close below the pinbar and 56.5 psychological level to confirm my view. 

DISCLAIMER: The previous and proceeding posts are all trading analysis by myself, for myself - posted here for the benefit of other traders to share their thoughts and experience. Please do not follow my calls. Please do not interpret my calls as financial advice.


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## sinner (11 January 2010)

sinner said:


> Holding shorts from 56.68 with a 10c stop. Would like to see a break and close below the pinbar and 56.5 psychological level to confirm my view.




Well, that was really a lot quicker than I expected. Stopped out with no slippage for 1%. Still believe in my analysis, but won't trade this stock again today.


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## nomore4s (11 January 2010)

sinner said:


> Well, that was really a lot quicker than I expected. Stopped out with no slippage for 1%. Still believe in my analysis, but won't trade this stock again today.




Probably best to either short it on the close or wait for another day with a bit more weakness in the market to go short with such a tight stop.

Just my


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## sinner (11 January 2010)

nomore4s said:


> Probably best to either short it on the close or wait for another day with a bit more weakness in the market to go short with such a tight stop.
> 
> Just my




Thanks for the input nomore4s, I will keep it in mind in any case. The reason  I shorted there was mostly because the result of a no-demand is either a severe price correction or...well...demand. Fear of missing out is still a bit part of trading psychology that I need to overcome.

In this case we got demand, I was happy to be proved wrong, managed to scalp my losses back on AUDUSD within 15 mins :


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## nomore4s (11 January 2010)

sinner said:


> Thanks for the input nomore4s, I will keep it in mind in any case. The reason  I shorted there was mostly because the result of a no-demand is either a severe price correction or...well...demand. Fear of missing out is still a bit part of trading psychology that I need to overcome.
> 
> In this case we got demand, I was happy to be proved wrong, managed to scalp my losses back on AUDUSD within 15 mins :




lol well done on the AUD trade.

The only reason I'd short either the close or not at all on a day like today is when the XAO holds gains like this into the close there is a chance we will see a strong close on stocks like CBA. Probably need to wait for confirmation on days like today.

Also CBA has had a breakout on the daily charts and traders could be looking to buy into the close as it looks like holding today. Shorting on the close will let you pick up any overnight weakness but could obviously cause some slippage on overnight strength.


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## gooner (11 January 2010)

sinner said:


> CBA has issued just over 300 million AUD in foreign denominated debt in the first week of 2010 alone.




Sinner. Not sure why you consider this relevant? This amount is chickenfeed for a bank the size of CBA

BTA - agree that CBA is overvalued


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## sinner (11 January 2010)

gooner said:


> Sinner. Not sure why you consider this relevant? This amount is chickenfeed for a bank the size of CBA
> 
> BTA - agree that CBA is overvalued




I am keeping a close eye on debt issuance by the big 4, waiting to see if they get crowded out of the debt market by massive US treasury issuance.

$300 mil is chicken feed IF you can sell it. Although by the looks of AUDCHF and AUDHKD over the last week, they had no problems.


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 January 2010)

Whatever happened to the old dictum, buy on the rumour , sell on the news.

CBA seems to be defying this dictum late on Friday afternoon.

It will be interesting to see if it keeps its momentum up.

gg


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## oldblue (16 January 2010)

I wasn't aware that there had been a rumour? I thought the market was expecting that bank profits would be flat for a while yet.

I don't hold CBA but hoping it bodes well for my ANZ, NAB and WBC.


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## condog (16 January 2010)

oldblue said:


> I wasn't aware that there had been a rumour? I thought the market was expecting that bank profits would be flat for a while yet.
> 
> I don't hold CBA but hoping it bodes well for my ANZ, NAB and WBC.




Good luck the lshort to mid term out look for NAB and ANZ is not as rosey, given there big cap raisings at the bottom of the market has drmatically affected shareholders equity and is predicted by commentators like Roger Montgomery to be around 12% possibly less for a while...  WBC this year may suffer, but next year as they begin to close branches and achieve synergies should be better...

CBA has been the pick since Sept 09 after the other all diluted so much and CBA did not....I thank god sold all my other bank shares and raised my CBA stakes recently ..... 

Yesterdays announcment was very nice, but expected....  Ive been saying this same message in the beginners forum for about 2 months... hope some people chose to DYOR rebalance....hopefully some people took it on board...


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## ginar (25 June 2010)

Entry based on time to report and div . Held support today closing above 50.00 , 49.60 is a multi pivot support level with recent low around 48.00 another area for support . If the world falls out of bed is likely the biggest danger .


11 Aug, 2010 Full year results and final dividend announced   
16 Aug, 2010 Ex-dividend date


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## rjsinvestments (26 June 2010)

I have been keeping a close eye on this one... what are people's thoughts on cba heading back to low 40's again?


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## craigj (30 June 2010)

it is definately retracing at the moment the chartist in his free weekly chart suggested that it was heading further down and probably thru the support level at $46


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## malachii (1 July 2010)

craigj said:


> it is definately retracing at the moment the chartist in his free weekly chart suggested that it was heading further down and probably thru the support level at $46




As always - anything is possible.  However, there are also some compelling reasons to think it may be reaching bottom now (at least in the short term).  Yesterday it pushed through it's short term support and then bounced straight back above it and closed above.  Volume yesterday (6.7mil) was not out of the ordinary - so to me - no huge signs of mass dumping.  We will also start to see the build up to the dividend (it's about 6 weeks away) so funds/investors will start to hold what they have and accumulate more so they abide by the 45 day imputation ruling.  Any end of financial year selling and portfolio adjusting should also have finished.  Even with European banks going to hell in a hand basket - Oz banks are somewhat (although not completely) sheltered from the mess so may see some overseas investment flowing in to them.  So all in all (in my opinion only) I think there are some positives to see at least a short term rally in the stock.  

malachii

PS - PLEASE NOTE I OWN SHARES AND OPTIONS IN THIS COMPANY.  MY OPINION IS VERY BIASED!!!


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## Frank D (1 July 2010)

*CBA*

*A ton of support in July around $45.10*

Which coincides with the 3rd Quarter lows at the same time.


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## rensionurne (3 July 2010)

*CBA Commonwealth Bank of Australia*

As I mentioned earlier in this post, if funds are more expensive for the Commonwealth Bank, as theyve stated, then they should increase all their customers deposit rates by 0.1. 

If they dont raise their deposit rates by 0.1 they would have lied and are just after more money for their executives and profits.

Which is it Commonwealth Bank?


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## oldblue (3 July 2010)

*Re: CBA Commonwealth Bank of Australia*



rensionurne said:


> As I mentioned earlier in this post, if funds are more expensive for the Commonwealth Bank, as theyve stated, then they should increase all their customers deposit rates by 0.1.
> 
> If they dont raise their deposit rates by 0.1 they would have lied and are just after more money for their executives and profits.
> 
> Which is it Commonwealth Bank?




The pressure on banks' funding costs is coming from their wholesale funding, largely sourced from overseas.

The fact is that Australia relies on borrowing from overseas. Increasing domestic deposit rates won't increase the volume of these funds sufficiently to offset the need to replace overseas funding as it matures.


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## robertgordon (2 August 2010)

CBA  :  Looking for a Seasonal Top into the 5th August .
Multiple time frames moving into Geometric alignment should turn trend down .


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## malachii (4 November 2010)

Anyone got any ideas why CBA is copping a hiding of late?  It seems to over-react on the downside to most things these last few weeks - especially as banks are making hideous profits.  I know the other 3 are all paying divs at the moment but below $49 seems to be on the cheap side. 

It has been in a down trend since mid Sept but seems to be reaching the bottom of the channel (IMHO).  Will it bounce or break?  Any thoughts?

malachii


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## Frank D (4 November 2010)

*CBA Weekly*

CBA should have found support @ $50.04 in the 2nd week of October and 
by the 3rd week should have been trading above  $51.25 and 
heading towards the October highs by the 4th week….

And then continuing higher towards  $56.29 in the 4th Quarter.

However, by the 4th Week it was struggling and now looking to move 
down into lower support levels.

A number of support levels, as shown need to be verified with lesser timeframes patterns.

With major Support @ $46.22


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## robusta (6 November 2010)

Wow it is bank bashing season again, got to love it I picked up some more CBA this week.
Just a quick opinion of recent events.

Politicians flapping their gums at the evil banks is almost a annual event. (except through the GFC when they apparently saved our bacon). 
What are they going to do anyway. More regulation will be a massive backward step plus the Reserve Bank is laughing because the big four are taking all the heat and doing the RBA's job for them. Look at it this way if the government made the banks cut interest by 1% the RBA would have to put up interest rates by 1%.

The CBA put rates up .45% this is great news for investors. People suffer from inertia when it comes to banks, we moan and groan but it is to hard to spend the couple of hours required to change institutions.

CBA has:
The best ROE of any of the big 4 (16.8)
46% market share in WA, our best state economy through the purchase of Bankwest.
Sustainable competitive advantage.
A long history of being priced at a premium to peers but currently at a small discount.
At a small discount to current intrinsic value (about $53.00) with IV rising at about 16% PA over the next couple of years.

If I personally banked with CBA I would move my money to a credit union or building society and buy CBA shares.


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## Tightwad (6 November 2010)

I'm keeping an eye on it, i may buy at 46-47,  might see how any 'regulation' talk goes, but I can't see it being anything that has any more than a token effect.

Gottliebsen has an article on eureka report about deposits maybe being better than an investment in cba... I don't know, I'm not subscribed atm.   I can't forsee any real problems ahead - but I don't really know much.


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## laurie (7 November 2010)

Tightwad said:


> Gottliebsen has an article on eureka report about deposits maybe being better than an investment in cba...




That really is a silly statement I mean deposits income if that what Gottliebsen means is not a tax effective way to invest. The income is just added to your normal income and if high enough you will end up paying PAYG Tax on it unlike dividends 

laurie


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## Tightwad (7 November 2010)

Here's the headline anyway.. i can't forsee what the trouble is.

Safer in than on banks

By Robert Gottliebsen

Poorly planned moves to lift rates beyond RBA guidelines is set to cause trouble for bank investors, making deposits look more attractive..


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## Julia (7 November 2010)

laurie said:


> That really is a silly statement I mean deposits income if that what Gottliebsen means is not a tax effective way to invest. The income is just added to your normal income and if high enough you will end up paying PAYG Tax on it unlike dividends
> 
> laurie



It's not necessarily a silly statement, Laurie.
A lot of depositors in CBA will be retirees in pension phase of their Super who are paying no tax.  Many different tax situations exist.  Even if not in pension phase, if the deposit is within a super fund, the tax is only 15%.

Tightwad:  are you able to provide a link to the original article?
I've found it on Eureka Report, but the page is unavailable.


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## YELNATS (7 November 2010)

Julia said:


> It's not necessarily a silly statement, Laurie.
> A lot of depositors in CBA will be retirees in pension phase of their Super who are paying no tax.  Many different tax situations exist.  Even if not in pension phase, if the deposit is within a super fund, the tax is only 15%.




At CBA's Friday's closing price of $48.88 dividend yield is 5.93%. If in pension mode, after franking credits this equates to 8.47%. If not in pension mode it is 6.97%.

CBA's current term deposit offerings are 6% for 12 months up to 6.40% for 60 months.

It certainly looks like it's better to be a CBA shareholder than a CBA term deposit customer.

I'm a shareholder but bank elsewhere.

Please correct me if my maths are wrong.


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## robusta (7 November 2010)

Nice little result from that terrible rate rise of 0.45%, will add about $600mil to CBA bottom line plus stronger ballance sheet will further reduce cost of capital in international markets.


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## laurie (7 November 2010)

Julia said:


> It's not necessarily a silly statement, Laurie.
> A lot of depositors in CBA will be retirees in pension phase of their Super who are paying no tax.  Many different tax situations exist.  Even if not in pension phase, if the deposit is within a super fund, the tax is only 15%.




Julia I agree but I was responding to the information given by Tightwad


> Gottliebsen has an article on eureka report about deposits maybe being better than an investment in cba... I don't know, I'm not subscribed atm. I can't forsee any real problems ahead - but I don't really know much.




laurie


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## Julia (7 November 2010)

YELNATS said:


> At CBA's Friday's closing price of $48.88 dividend yield is 5.93%. If in pension mode, after franking credits this equates to 8.47%. If not in pension mode it is 6.97%.
> 
> CBA's current term deposit offerings are 6% for 12 months up to 6.40% for 60 months.
> 
> ...



No disagreement with your calculation, Yelnats, and you're quite right, of course.

  What you're omitting, however, is the desirability for many people to have a sense of security for their capital.  No matter that ultimately the SP will rise, in the meantime the lack of stress if tax free funds are neatly tucked away in a guaranteed environment can be pretty appealing.

Depends very much on the personal circumstances of the investor and their tolerance for volatility.


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## Tightwad (7 November 2010)

Sorry people, I'm not able to post the link yet, have to wait until i get up to 5 posts.


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## boofhead (9 November 2010)

CBA announced its intention to release a retail bond to be listed on the ASX.

"The interest rate will equal the sum of the 90 day bank bill rate plus a margin of between 100 and 115 basis points to be determined prior to the launch of the Offer."

Doesn't seem to be as good as PERLS.


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## Bill M (9 November 2010)

I'm always on the lookout for new issues but this one from the CBA is really one of the lousiest in years and I won't be participating. The coupon at todays rates is around 6% gross. There are several other hybrids and bonds out there with much better margins. My opinion is that CBA is looking for cheap funding, good luck if they can get it.


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## Greedy_Kev (17 November 2010)

Any ideas on where the euro/china problems is going to effect CBA's next dividends? i feel like selling CBA and taking the gains but i believe that CBA's div should rise from these rate rises atleast 15c (since CBA is going to rake in another 600million and has 1500million shares @ around 40-60% return as div).

I'm not too concern about the price of the shares falling from the crises but more concern about my dividend payments.

Note: I own shares in this company and other banking companies


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## malachii (18 November 2010)

Greedy_Kev said:


> Any ideas on where the euro/china problems is going to effect CBA's next dividends? i feel like selling CBA and taking the gains but i believe that CBA's div should rise from these rate rises atleast 15c (since CBA is going to rake in another 600million and has 1500million shares @ around 40-60% return as div).
> 
> I'm not too concern about the price of the shares falling from the crises but more concern about my dividend payments.
> 
> Note: I own shares in this company and other banking companies




I wouldn't be too concerned about the divs.  Banks' divs rarely (although it has happened) decrease.  We are also coming out of a bit of a difficult time for the banks so I would be surprised if they reduced divs below where they are now.  People speculate about interest rates and such but short of a mass housing market collapse banks dont lose when interest rates move.  They just adjust as necessary.

CBA below $50 is a bargain over recent times (in my opinion). We are seeing CBA move higher against a down trending market at the moment because it was pushed down due to the other banks going ex div recently.  We are now seeing the market re-weight and start positioning for CBAs div early in the new year so I would expect to see it increase in price over the next few weeks - so if you wanted to sell - some time around (or just after) Christmas would probably be your best bet.  Although obviously if you do - you will miss the next div!

malachii

PS - My opinion only - due your own research and I do own CBA shares and call options as of today.


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## YELNATS (18 November 2010)

boofhead said:


> CBA announced its intention to release a retail bond to be listed on the ASX.
> 
> "The interest rate will equal the sum of the 90 day bank bill rate plus a margin of between 100 and 115 basis points to be determined prior to the launch of the Offer."
> 
> Doesn't seem to be as good as PERLS.




I checked this new product out and I agree. It comes nowhere near the most recent PERLS offering, PERLS V which offers the 90-day Bank Bill Swap Rate plus a margin of 3.4%. The retail bond has been confirmed by the CBA with a margin above the BBSR of only 1.05%. 

However, that said it is more secure, to be settled before any of the PERLS products in the unlikely event of the financial demise of the CBA.


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## alphaman (18 November 2010)

This retail bond does not make sense. It could be useful to institutions, but for retail investors, online savings account gives you even more security, interest rate is at least as high, and you can use the cash anytime.


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## Bill M (18 November 2010)

Greedy_Kev said:


> I'm not too concern about the price of the shares falling from the crises but more concern about my dividend payments.
> 
> Note: I own shares in this company and other banking companies




I have owned CBA shares for a very long period of time. The only time the dividends went down was during the GFC and now the dividends are starting to go up again. I do not plan to sell my shares as I do not believe the dividends will go down from here. Having said that, if there is a GFC mark 2 they could drop again but I am willing to take that risk.



alphaman said:


> This retail bond does not make sense. It could be useful to institutions, but for retail investors, online savings account gives you even more security, interest rate is at least as high, and you can use the cash anytime.




You are right alphaman, right now Rabo Bank are offering 6.4% at call. PERLS V running interest rate is about 7.8% and Tabcorps Bonds running rate is around 9%. Term Deposits for 5 years at St George Bank are 7%. To me these CBA bonds are a real lousy deal.


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## boofhead (18 November 2010)

The only upside to the bonds I see are that they are floating rate. If you expect BBSW to go up then it could become better value than some 5 year deposits. Plus they will be tradeable so you can exit.


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## Greedy_Kev (19 November 2010)

Thanks you Malachii, I dont think i will sell them, i'm thinking to be a long term investor and want to build a large cash flow. trying to get myself that river of gold


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## Greedy_Kev (22 November 2010)

Bill M said:


> You are right alphaman, right now Rabo Bank are offering 6.4% at call. PERLS V running interest rate is about 7.8% and Tabcorps Bonds running rate is around 9%. Term Deposits for 5 years at St George Bank are 7%. To me these CBA bonds are a real lousy deal.




yeah but CBA is such a strong performer and has a great track record, its practically risk free, compared to Rabo bank and TAB


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## prawn_86 (22 November 2010)

Greedy_Kev said:


> yeah but CBA is such a strong performer and has a great track record, its practically risk free, compared to Rabo bank and TAB




Rabo bank is one of the most respected in the World with a market cap bigger than CBA. I dont see how they are more risky than CBA


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## oldblue (22 November 2010)

prawn_86 said:


> Rabo bank is one of the most respected in the World with a market cap bigger than CBA. I dont see how they are more risky than CBA




Quite so. That is, assuming that it's the parent Rabobank  who are offering this rate and not some non-guaranteed subsidiary?


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## Julia (22 November 2010)

oldblue said:


> Quite so. That is, assuming that it's the parent Rabobank  who are offering this rate and not some non-guaranteed subsidiary?



I signed on for this 6.4% at call deal a few months ago.  Funds are fully guaranteed.
Rabobank are by far the best bank I've ever dealt with - efficient, great website which updates both basic and bonus interest every day, helpful staff and fast service.  They leave the other more well known banks for absolute dead.


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## ginar (23 November 2010)

Frank D said:


> *CBA Weekly*
> 
> CBA should have found support @ $50.04 in the 2nd week of October and
> by the 3rd week should have been trading above  $51.25 and
> ...





Your a gun frankiedee , its certainly coming up on my radar now being a bit over 2 months to reporting . recent lows at the 4800 level obvious key . XJO looking shaky at the 4600 level atm so its a coin toss as to whether the 48 holds , definately got my eye on FDs level down there at his major support . CBA being the safe conservative bank they are always rise into report/div outside blackswan events so im keen for an entry some time early - mid dec , ill give a little time for the xjo to sort its support level out so no rush atm .


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## iced earth (13 February 2011)

_*CBA (COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA) - 12.02.11:*_

The share filled the gap (from $ 24 to $ 60) but couldn't passed up that level. we could see the possibility of forming of a Cup and Handle pattern. the target of the pattern could be around $95. 

but first the important resistance level of around $60 should be successfully passed up.


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## nulla nulla (13 February 2011)

malachii said:


> I wouldn't be too concerned about the divs.  Banks' divs rarely (although it has happened) decrease.  We are also coming out of a bit of a difficult time for the banks so I would be surprised if they reduced divs below where they are now.  People speculate about interest rates and such but short of a mass housing market collapse banks dont lose when interest rates move.  They just adjust as necessary.
> 
> CBA below $50 is a bargain over recent times (in my opinion). We are seeing CBA move higher against a down trending market at the moment because it was pushed down due to the other banks going ex div recently.  We are now seeing the market re-weight and start positioning for CBAs div early in the new year so I would expect to see it increase in price over the next few weeks - so if you wanted to sell - some time around (or just after) Christmas would probably be your best bet.  Although obviously if you do - you will miss the next div!
> 
> ...




An excellent call if ever there was one. From sub $48.00 to $55.00 from November to February (capital gain increase of 15%+) and a Div to come with franking credits. No doubt it will retrace (briefly ?) after it goes exdiv. But the future for CBA doesn't too bleak and it will probably recover.

As always DYOR


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## VSntchr (1 April 2011)

CBA divvy paid today. Anyone know what date the DRP shares are allocated?


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## ginar (11 June 2011)

ginar said:


> Your a gun frankiedee , its certainly coming up on my radar now being a bit over 2 months to reporting . recent lows at the 4800 level obvious key . XJO looking shaky at the 4600 level atm so its a coin toss as to whether the 48 holds , definately got my eye on FDs level down there at his major support . CBA being the safe conservative bank they are always rise into report/div outside blackswan events so im keen for an entry some time early - mid dec , ill give a little time for the xjo to sort its support level out so no rush atm .




6 months on and we are back to a similar scenario with the 2011 lows around 49.20 levels being support  . CBA report 10 aug and are ex 15 aug . entry before end of june is on my agenda .............


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## ginar (11 June 2011)

ginar said:


> 6 months on and we are back to a similar scenario with the 2011 lows around 49.20 levels being support  . CBA report 10 aug and are ex 15 aug . entry before end of june is on my agenda .............




chart


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## nulla nulla (10 August 2011)

Like a lot of shares yesterday, CBA dropped like a stone into irrationly oversold territory. The downward spike was a buy signal for the bold and cashed up, unfortunately I am neither.

I follow cba (in a similar manner to "pairs trading") using it as a bench mark for the banking sector in general and a close comparison to wbc due to their weighting in mortgages. 
I have formed the opinion that CBA is worth a buy and hold when it dips under $50.00, with a view to taking profit between $52.00 - $54.00. This gives a 4% to 8% return for a short term hold. Buying in yesterdays spike down would set up an even better return.

Additionaly if you hold for the required period of time and take a dividend with franking credits and still manage to sell with a capital gain, your profit is even higher. 




My only problem with buying cba is the price range is higher than I like, as I can buy 2 wbc shares for less outlay and make the same sort of return on a swing trade without going overweight in my portfolio.


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## nulla nulla (10 August 2011)

A record profit announced today and the market response could only be described as "luke warm" at best. 

All the banks were up today but cba only half as much % wise as the rest. What do the analysts reasonably expect in this economic environment?


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## breaker (10 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Like a lot of shares yesterday, CBA dropped like a stone into irrationly oversold territory. The downward spike was a buy signal for the bold and cashed up, unfortunately I am neither.
> 
> I follow cba (in a similar manner to "pairs trading") using it as a bench mark for the banking sector in general and a close comparison to wbc due to their weighting in mortgages.
> I have formed the opinion that CBA is worth a buy and hold when it dips under $50.00, with a view to taking profit between $52.00 - $54.00. This gives a 4% to 8% return for a short term hold. Buying in yesterdays spike down would set up an even better return.
> ...




Nulla, can I ask how many shares ? can you please explain the attraction I dont feel the 4-8%profit is much
Can you explain if I were to buy $100k before the 15th and if any better than BHP ect
WBC half the price but half the divie


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## Julia (10 August 2011)

breaker said:


> Nulla, can I ask how many shares ? can you please explain the attraction I dont feel the 4-8%profit is much
> Can you explain if I were to buy $100k before the 15th and if any better than BHP ect
> WBC half the price but half the divie



Breaker, how do you come by the conclusion that WBC is half the dividend of CBA (if that's in fact what you're saying)?

Nulla will correct me if I'm misinterpreting what he said, but the 4 - 8% profit is the capital gain over a few days according to the scenario he put up.  Not to do with the dividend yield.


----------



## ajjack (10 August 2011)

Julia

The most recent dividends and SP as announced is CBA  3.20  and 48.23. 
WBC  1.50  and 20.14.
Therefore  breaker is correct in saying  'WBC half the price but half the divie'.


----------



## breaker (11 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Breaker, how do you come by the conclusion that WBC is half the dividend of CBA (if that's in fact what you're saying)?
> 
> Nulla will correct me if I'm misinterpreting what he said, but the 4 - 8% profit is the capital gain over a few days according to the scenario he put up.  Not to do with the dividend yield.




Julia,CBA is 1.88 WBC is 76 cent divie..... CBA 48.23   WBC 20.14 share price
Am thinking off buying in these hard times .but I dont understand their value
Sorry didnt read previous post and my divie must be half yearly


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

breaker said:


> Nulla, can I ask how many shares ? can you please explain the attraction I dont feel the 4-8%profit is much
> Can you explain if I were to buy $100k before the 15th and if any better than BHP ect
> WBC half the price but half the divie




1000 - 2000 depending on available cash to back up the buy if I have to hold it.  Selling at $52.00 after purchasing at $50.00, is a 4% gain. Selling at $54.00 after purchasing at $50.00 gives an 8% gain. 4-8% for a few days to weeks holding is worth my while. 



Julia said:


> Breaker, how do you come by the conclusion that WBC is half the dividend of CBA (if that's in fact what you're saying)?
> 
> Nulla will correct me if I'm misinterpreting what he said, but the 4 - 8% profit is the capital gain over a few days according to the scenario he put up.  Not to do with the dividend yield.




WBC is just a attractive as it represents the same potential % returns. Holding, after a share like wbc & cba go ex-div, and acheiving a capital gain on the trade is bonus material as the div comes with a franking credit for those that have held for the requisite 45+ days.

After last nights djia action the banks will probably be cheaper again today.


----------



## breaker (11 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> 1000 - 2000 depending on available cash to back up the buy if I have to hold it.  Selling at $52.00 after purchasing at $50.00, is a 4% gain. Selling at $54.00 after purchasing at $50.00 gives an 8% gain. 4-8% for a few days to weeks holding is worth my while.
> 
> 
> 
> WBC is just a attractive as it represents the same potential % returns.




Thanks Nulla , so in a SMSF the divies would be tax free and I would reinvest them ?
The share usually drops ex-divie


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

ajjack said:


> Julia
> 
> The most recent dividends and SP as announced is CBA  3.20  and 48.23.
> WBC  1.50  and 20.14.
> Therefore  breaker is correct in saying  'WBC half the price but half the divie'.




CBA with a div of $3.20 on the share price of $48.23 has a yield of 6.63%. WBC with a div of $1.50 on a share price of $20.14 has a yield of 7.44%. At those yields wbc is the better option. Also you can buy 2394 shares in wbc for the same investment in cba.

Fundamentals are still relevent, however todays sentiment may shift the ratios arround a bit.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

breaker said:


> Thanks Nulla , so in a SMSF the divies would be tax free and I would reinvest them ?
> The share usually drops ex-divie




Divies are still taxable in smsf 15%, the franking credits (assuming the qualifying period has been met) are a handy offset against the income tax component (as distinct from capital gains). If fully franked they represent a 30% credit.

All capital gains and divs are reinvested in a smsf (unless of course you are in pension mode).


----------



## McCoy Pauley (11 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> A record profit announced today and the market response could only be described as "luke warm" at best.
> 
> All the banks were up today but cba only half as much % wise as the rest. What do the analysts reasonably expect in this economic environment?




Ralph Norris' last full year result as CEO - the new bloke is bit of an unknown quantity.  Plus CBA admitted that it was losing market share to the other banks (particularly NAB, though not in so many words) in its full year results presentation.


----------



## breaker (11 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Divies are still taxable in smsf 15%, the franking credits (assuming the qualifying period has been met) are a handy offset against the income tax component (as distinct from capital gains). If fully franked they represent a 30% credit.
> 
> All capital gains and divs are reinvested in a smsf (unless of course you are in pension mode).




Thanks Nulla, I know gains and divs are reinvested but not necessarily in the same share if I reinvested in the same share would this be compounding ?


----------



## Julia (11 August 2011)

ajjack said:


> Julia
> 
> The most recent dividends and SP as announced is CBA  3.20  and 48.23.
> WBC  1.50  and 20.14.
> Therefore  breaker is correct in saying  'WBC half the price but half the divie'.






breaker said:


> Julia,CBA is 1.88 WBC is 76 cent divie..... CBA 48.23   WBC 20.14 share price
> Am thinking off buying in these hard times .but I dont understand their value
> Sorry didnt read previous post and my divie must be half yearly



 Surely you're not going to compare the yield on CBA and WBC on a dollar basis when they have completely different SP's????

On a % basis, there's about one percentage point between them in WBC's favour.

To consider the dividend on a dollar/cent basis is a bit like saying you get more for your money if you buy penny shares.  In the end, all that matters is the percentage return on your capital.


----------



## breaker (11 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Surely you're not going to compare the yield on CBA and WBC on a dollar basis when they have completely different SP's????
> 
> On a % basis, there's about one percentage point between them in WBC's favour.
> 
> To consider the dividend on a dollar/cent basis is a bit like saying you get more for your money if you buy penny shares.  In the end, all that matters is the percentage return on your capital.




No but for 50k there isn't much difference


----------



## Julia (11 August 2011)

breaker said:


> Julia,CBA is 1.88 WBC is 76 cent divie..... CBA 48.23   WBC 20.14 share price
> Am thinking off buying in these hard times .but I dont understand their value
> Sorry didnt read previous post and my divie must be half yearly



This is what I was referring to.  The dividend is always quoted on an annual basis, not half yearly.  For the sake of clarity, quoting in % p.a. is the most clear way to make a comparison.



nulla nulla said:


> Divies are still taxable in smsf 15%, the franking credits (assuming the qualifying period has been met) are a handy offset against the income tax component (as distinct from capital gains). If fully franked they represent a 30% credit.
> 
> All capital gains and divs are reinvested in a smsf (unless of course you are in pension mode).



Are you saying that you personally have a SMSF and have chosen to reinvest all capital gains and dividends?
Presumably not that it's automatic for any capital gains and divs to be reinvested?

Breaker's following post seems a bit ambivalent about this.

Not everyone is going to want to reinvest either c. gains or dividends in the same company.  I never do either.



breaker said:


> Thanks Nulla, I know gains and divs are reinvested but not necessarily in the same share if I reinvested in the same share would this be compounding ?


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Surely you're not going to compare the yield on CBA and WBC on a dollar basis when they have completely different SP's????
> 
> On a % basis, there's about one percentage point between them in WBC's favour.
> 
> To consider the dividend on a dollar/cent basis is a bit like saying you get more for your money if you buy penny shares.  In the end, all that matters is the percentage return on your capital.




And of course you generally have more security investing in cba or wbc than the penny dreadfuls. Minimising risk and protecting your capital.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Are you saying that you personally have a SMSF and have chosen to reinvest all capital gains and dividends?
> Presumably not that it's automatic for any capital gains and divs to be reinvested?
> 
> Breaker's following post seems a bit ambivalent about this.
> ...




I have a SMSF and I re-invest the capital gains and divends. Not necesarily in the same shares as I go where I see the oportunities. 
At one stage I was buying and selling IOF and churning the total funds back into subsequent buys of IOF. That was the clearest indication of the strength of swing trading and compounding returns versus buying and holding for divs and a hopefull capital gain.


----------



## breaker (11 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I have a SMSF and I re-invest the capital gains and divends. Not necesarily in the same shares as I go where I see the oportunities.
> At one stage I was buying and selling IOF and churning the total funds back into subsequent buys of IOF. That was the clearest indication of the strength of swing trading and compounding returns versus buying and holding for divs and a hopefull capital gain.




I guess what I'm getting at is I've lost money lately I'm wondering if it is'nt just as easy to buy the blue chips and go away, than trading every day It would take a lot off BHP say to make a liveable return


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2011)

breaker said:


> I guess what I'm getting at is I've lost money lately I'm wondering if it is'nt just as easy to buy the blue chips and go away, than trading every day It would take a lot off BHP say to make a liveable return




Hard call to answer that one. Trading isn't everyones cup of tea. You don't have to trade every day, every instrument etc. You should choose what you are comfortable with, develope your system and fine tune it as you go. 
Sometimes you take a step backward before you go forward. But this is getting a bit off topic.  Good luck.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (11 August 2011)

So 10% of the 13% of the profit growth came from arreas reserves (or whatever it's called), with credit growth slowing to almost nothing, am I the only one who expects CBA's next reported profit growth to be extremely low?


----------



## Muschu (11 August 2011)

Would appreciate views on CBA being pushed to an artificial high before going XD... 

Comments welcome


Rick


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## ajjack (12 August 2011)

@Muschu

The price and volumes of most stocks is increased just prior 
to going ex div.  But it has been especially noticeable with
the banks recently.   Not all banks however, just the big4.

I dont think there's any conspiracy out there, its just that
most punters are wise to CBA, and they want a part
of the action.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 August 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> So 10% of the 13% of the profit growth came from arreas reserves (or whatever it's called), with credit growth slowing to almost nothing, am I the only one who expects CBA's next reported profit growth to be extremely low?




That is a reasonable assessment in my opinion. There will be growth but it will be tight. This applies not just to banks though, going forward. The profit level will probably be maintained or improve slightly but I bet cost cutting plays a bigger role.


----------



## Knobby22 (12 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> That is a reasonable assessment in my opinion. There will be growth but it will be tight. This applies not just to banks though, going forward. The profit level will probably be maintained or improve slightly but I bet cost cutting plays a bigger role.




A great yield is a great yield though. Also we were told single figure growth for this half and yet we got double.


----------



## Muschu (12 August 2011)

I never mind disclosing what I don't know [which is quite a lot......]

I hold some CBA in my SMSF - pension phase.

1.  If I sell some on Monday - when the stock goes XD - do I get the dividend or must I hold them until Tuesday?

and

2.  As I have held them for less than 45 days -- will my SMSF get the franking credits or is that off the cards?

With thanks 

Rick


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## nulla nulla (12 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> I never mind disclosing what I don't know [which is quite a lot......]
> 
> I hold some CBA in my SMSF - pension phase.
> 
> ...




If the stock goes ex-div on monday and you sell them, you still get the div.
I believe you need to hold them for 45+ days to get the franking credit (however the size of the parcel may be relevent) check with your accountant.


----------



## Muschu (12 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> If the stock goes ex-div on monday and you sell them, you still get the div.
> I believe you need to hold them for 45+ days to get the franking credit (however the size of the parcel may be relevent) check with your accountant.




Many thanks NN...


----------



## Starcraftmazter (15 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> That is a reasonable assessment in my opinion. There will be growth but it will be tight. This applies not just to banks though, going forward. The profit level will probably be maintained or improve slightly but I bet cost cutting plays a bigger role.




Do you feel as though this is priced in? I have read that financials are looking for staff cuts lately, I suppose there is a bit of wiggle room for artificial profit growth, but it can't be much/sustainable.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 September 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Do you feel as though this is priced in? I have read that financials are looking for staff cuts lately, I suppose there is a bit of wiggle room for artificial profit growth, but it can't be much/sustainable.




It does look like that SCM, it always has.

My guess is that CBA will be available cheaper soon, however I would not be against buying more at these prices if the Europeans get their act together. Relative to the other pillars it is by far the best performing.

gg


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## craft (15 September 2011)

Bank [Price to Book]* ratios during Australia’s last major domestic recession.

Years--90---91---92
WBC---.65--.72--.75
ANZ---.89--.82--.70
NAB---.86--1.08--1.14
CBA -------------1.10 (listed Sept 91)

Overall Average .87

Banks @ latest book value and a .87 Price to book ratio.

WBC	$11.12
ANZ	$11.59
NAB	$15.88
CBA	$20.60

Are banks likely to see historical recession level Price to Book multiples return during the next recession?



*[Closing share price on the last day of the company's financial year / shareholders equity per share]


----------



## RandR (16 September 2011)

craft said:


> Bank [Price to Book]* ratios during Australia’s last major domestic recession.
> 
> Years--90---91---92
> WBC---.65--.72--.75
> ...




Thanks for posting that. Good food for thought.

Ultimately a banks performance and stock price is going to be a reflection of the economic environment it is operating in. A bank is a 'parasite' business that needs to feed off of other well performing sectors of the economy for itself to perform. Perhaps in that sense it is thematically one of the safest plays after a time of an economic recession, because through a bank your getting a broader more diversified exposure to any upswing in economic prosperity.

In the case you've provided above, what affect do you see of ANZ diversifying there exposure and revenue into asia ? Would this not to some degree limit there exposure to being priced at the historical P/B ratio in a domestic recession ?


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## McLovin (16 September 2011)

craft said:


> Bank [Price to Book]* ratios during Australia’s last major domestic recession.
> 
> Years--90---91---92
> WBC---.65--.72--.75
> ...




Interesting. One observation would be the state of banking in Australia during the last recession. There had been a string of high profile bank failures (Pyramid, State Bank of SA, State Bank of Vic), and WBC itself was being seriously considered as the next to fall. This was all started by the reckless lending of banks during the 1980s to corporate cowboys and severly strained balance sheets as new deregulated banks tried to claim as much market share as possible. ANZ lent Warwick Fairfax $1b over the phone without ever meeting him, because Laurie (Connell) told them to. Today banks are mainly reliant on mortgage lending and while this does have risks, especially in what I think is an overheated property market, I don't think it's quite the same as lending a couple of bill on negative pledge to a debt laden conglomerate.

If you want a great book about corporate 1980s Australia (with quite a bit about banking) then I suggest "The Bold Riders" by Trevor Sykes. Great read although it maybe out of print.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (16 September 2011)

craft said:


> Are banks likely to see historical recession level Price to Book multiples return during the next recession?




Anything is posssible, But unless they start taking serious hits to cashflows or atleast are rumoured to be suffering huge losses I can't see it.

I mean at $20.60 CBA would be on an earnings multiple of 4.6 and paying a 16.6% fully franked dividend. So obviously the wheels have to be falling off for a permanent rerating to this level.

I can't see it happening even if there was a large property crash, It would take alot to turn cba into a junk bond, their loan book is on less than 50% LVR.

But offcourse fear can make it happen temperarily, such as in 2008,

I think $37 would be a fair price during a recession, So if it falls below that I will be buying some.


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## craft (16 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Anything is posssible, But unless they start taking serious hits to cashflows or atleast are rumoured to be suffering huge losses I can't see it.
> 
> I mean at $20.60 CBA would be on an earnings multiple of 4.6 and paying a 16.6% fully franked dividend. So obviously the wheels have to be falling off for a permanent rerating to this level.
> 
> ...




Provisioning for bad debts can quickly kill profitability so using current earnings and dividends is a bit misleading as to what would happen in a recession.

Defaults happen at the margin so the average of the total loan book doesn’t mean a lot. WBC and CBA were both very aggressive in residential lending recently and that is where the higher LVR and defaults are likely to come from. 

Banks are highly leveraged so a small loss on total outstanding is quickly magnified back into the capital adequacy ratios which could require equity raisings to fix.




McLovin said:


> Interesting. One observation would be the state of banking in Australia during the last recession. There had been a string of high profile bank failures (Pyramid, State Bank of SA, State Bank of Vic), and WBC itself was being seriously considered as the next to fall. This was all started by the reckless lending of banks during the 1980s to corporate cowboys and severly strained balance sheets as new deregulated banks tried to claim as much market share as possible. ANZ lent Warwick Fairfax $1b over the phone without ever meeting him, because Laurie (Connell) told them to. Today banks are mainly reliant on mortgage lending and while this does have risks, especially in what I think is an overheated property market, I don't think it's quite the same as lending a couple of bill on negative pledge to a debt laden conglomerate.
> 
> If you want a great book about corporate 1980s Australia (with quite a bit about banking) then I suggest "The Bold Riders" by Trevor Sykes. Great read although it maybe out of print.




I suspect there will be books written on lending practices after the next recession – just what the chapter headings will be is probably yet to be determined.



craft said:


> Are banks likely to see historical recession level Price to Book multiples return during the next recession?




I don’t know the answer to this question. Certainly the banks are a different beast now than they were back then, one major change is their diversification into wealth management etc etc. However I guess I would be surprised if they could not be bought below book value at some stage during a recession.

My inclination on buying banks is to wait until a domestic recession throws the closet door open and reveals what skeletons have been stashed. It is beyond my research capabilities to determine this at any other time.


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## McLovin (16 September 2011)

craft said:


> It is beyond my research capabilities to determine this at any other time.




I agree 100%. Most analysts don't really know what's going on inside a bank at any point in time.


----------



## pavilion103 (27 January 2012)

It looks like there is some strong supply coming in in the last couple of days. What do people think. It looks destined to decline but when?


----------



## Ves (27 November 2012)

Sold this today after making around 40% return in 14 months.   

I do not see any imminent trouble - but I am ever weary about our economy slowing.  This is more a play it safe, wait and see, sell decision.  I don't see much upside in their earnings in the next few years.


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## Klogg (28 November 2012)

Ves said:


> Sold this today after making around 40% return in 14 months.
> 
> I do not see any imminent trouble - but I am ever weary about our economy slowing.  This is more a play it safe, wait and see, sell decision.  I don't see much upside in their earnings in the next few years.




Not that I own any banks, but to be honest, I'd be doing the same thing.

The amount of foreign funds that our banks borrow is fairly high, and given:
- the AUD forecast is either flat or falling (I don't recall anyone forecasting a rise in the AUD)
- mortgage growt rates aren't going to shoot the lights out 
- Basel III will have some impacts on banks capital requirements (and ultimately the return on this capital)
then I can't see them doing as well as they've done in the past.

Ofcourse, I could be way wrong on this... time will tell I guess


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## McLovin (13 February 2013)

I can't understand how banks continue to grow and grow. CBA is now capped at about 8% of GDP. These banks are pretty much just mortgage lenders in Australia, so at these sort of levels they can't keep going up or they will end up outperforming Australia.


----------



## skc (13 February 2013)

McLovin said:


> I can't understand how banks continue to grow and grow. CBA is now capped at about 8% of GDP. These banks are pretty much just mortgage lenders in Australia, so at these sort of levels they can't keep going up or they will end up outperforming Australia.




Well they do have some business overseas so it's not just domestic... And GDP is one-year P&L type number while market cap is present value of cashflow forever into the future. The "market cap" for Australia is probably something like 15x GDP I'd imgaine.


----------



## McLovin (13 February 2013)

skc said:


> Well they do have some business overseas so it's not just domestic... And GDP is one-year P&L type number while market cap is present value of cashflow forever into the future. The "market cap" for Australia is probably something like 15x GDP I'd imgaine.




Sure, that's true, but GDP does give a good idea of how much profit you can take out of an economy and by extension how big you can get. Given their size, it's hard to see how the Big 4 will grow at much over the rate of GDP growth.

You reckon it's as high 15x? I would have thought 5-6x. 

GDP $1.3t
Property ~$4t
Sharemarket ~$1.2t

Those two are probably the two largest single asset pools. And that would give 4x GDP before subtracting debt. Hmm...maybe 5-6 is too high.

ETA: Found something from the ABS...



> In June 2009, Australia's real national net worth was $6,899b, and real national net worth per capita was $314,200 (in 2007-08 prices). Between June 1999 and June 2009, Australia's real national net worth per capita rose by an average annual rate of 0.9%.




http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by Subject/1370.0~2010~Chapter~Net worth (5.2.2)


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## tinhat (13 February 2013)

Gee, there's a bit of over-analysis going on here perhaps? Bank share prices rose on the back of their mortgage books and the credit boom, sure. But the current environment and the outlook is for very modest growth in earnings currently driven by cost cutting efficiencies more than anything else.

McLovin, you could make similar arguments about supermarkets too. Just how much growth is there left in supermarkets? Did anyone ever think twenty years ago that Woolworths would be a major pokie machine operator and publican?

Just to think outside the square for a moment. How important have financial services become in our daily modern lives though? When I started working everyone got paid in cash and you either paid with things using that cash or a cheque. Twenty-five years ago if you told me people would be using plastic cards to buy drinks at a night club I would have laughed at you.

This is a mega-trend that is only going to continue. Just think that if bank like CBA that are a bit ahead of the curve in their IT strategy, can get their IT and marketing strategies right how much upside potential there is in integrating financial services and in cross-marketing to their clients. Firstly, 99.9% of adult Australian are a bank customer. Secondly, is there anything about me that CBA (who I do my daily banking with and now my broking too) doesn't know? They know what shares I buy - and should be able to determine my risk profile. They know about at least 67% of all my expenditure and 100% of all my income. They can probably work out what health plan I am on with my  health insurer.

In a former life I use to train bank staff (twenty years ago). Even with the IT systems and the right strategies in place there would still need to be a complete cultural/generational shift of branch/customer support staff required to transform banks along the lines I envisage but it is the direction surely they must take.


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## burglar (13 February 2013)

tinhat said:


> Gee, there's a bit of over-analysis going on here perhaps? ...




I don't know who it is, or how much cash they have to inject into the equities market.
But I read somewhere that enormous amounts are looking for a home.

Trying to figure out why banks are going well would be a wasted exercise until this resource dries up.

Just my take


----------



## McLovin (13 February 2013)

tinhat said:


> Gee, there's a bit of over-analysis going on here perhaps? Bank share prices rose on the back of their mortgage books and the credit boom, sure. But the current environment and the outlook is for very modest growth in earnings currently driven by cost cutting efficiencies more than anything else.




Which is my point. You can only increase profits through cost-cutting so much. Over the last 25 years the size of the finance sector has doubled as a % of GDP. That occurred in the midst of once in a lifetime credit boom and a massive change in technology that carved out costs. That is completely unsustainable, unless we become some sort of international banking centre. It doesn't seem like over-analysis to me, just a simple observation.




tinhat said:


> This is a mega-trend that is only going to continue. Just think that if bank like CBA that are a bit ahead of the curve in their IT strategy, can get their IT and marketing strategies right how much upside potential there is in integrating financial services and in cross-marketing to their clients.
> 
> In a former life I use to train bank staff (twenty years ago). Even with the IT systems and the right strategies in place there would still need to be a complete cultural/generational shift of branch/customer support staff required to transform banks along the lines I envisage but it is the direction surely they must take.




What sort of things are you thinking?

FWIW, I own CBA shares. I don't they're going broke any time soon but I wouldn't be buying them because of past performance.


----------



## tinhat (13 February 2013)

McLovin said:


> What sort of things are you thinking?
> 
> FWIW, I own CBA shares. I don't they're going broke any time soon but I wouldn't be buying them because of past performance.




I agree with most of your observations but just think there are big opportunities in financial services that can be driven by technology. I think that CBA have definitely made great leaps in terms of integrating a lot of business offerings into the NetBank system; for example insurance. There is a lot more that they can do (and probably will) to offer customers tools to manage their finances:

- manage household budget. Set budgets and track them against real-time bills as they are paid through the online banking system so that customers can know how they are spending their money.
- manage savings goals, financial planning/wealth management.
- manage the entire portfolio of financial services most people use such as home insurance, car insurance, health insurance, credit cards and be able to dynamically tailor offerings to specific individuals.
- Data mine client data to analyse and create sophisticated actuarial studies of risk based on financial behaviour, demographics and so on.
- Create fine-grained actuarial risk profiles on individual clients to tailor specific financial and insurance products to them.
- Cross-market finely targeted third party offerings to customers.
- Manage all your financial transactions with organisations easily. For example, a "supplier" should be able to provide a customer with a biller code and customer reference code (like bpay) that sets up a whole payment system with an organisation. For example, a school. Once set up in your online banking you can agree to pay ongoing things such as school fees, tuck-shop account, text-book bills, etc automatically and also be able to log into online banking and pay for one off items like a school excursion. The supplier should also have a gateway to the bank's system so that transactions can also be initiated at the supplier's end; for example, through the school website.

There are just some quick random thoughts, but there is still so much that can be done and no doubt will be done.


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## mattyRK (17 February 2013)

I'm just waiting for the right time to jump onto the bandwagon


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## mr. jeff (8 May 2013)

Is anyone shorting the banks yet on the almost parabolic move that has occurred over the past few months? Looks like the time could have arrived. If the global economy keeps putting out good news then money will start retracting from the banks and heading back overseas. I would guess the best indicator for this happening would be the dollar falling. 
Will watch keenly. The banks themselves have signalled that there is not much of a prospect for growth in the next few years, however they could have said this purely to stop all the criticism they deserve regarding their record profits when they were apparently struggling with borrowing costs. BS!!!


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## burglar (9 May 2013)

mattyRK said:


> I'm just waiting for the right time to jump onto the bandwagon




I believe the bandwagon departed last November!  JMO


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## Lee85 (5 June 2013)

Massive drops taking place across banking in general last two weeks. Anyone have thoughts on when / where it might bottom out, or is this correction likely to continue? I'm aware how detailed a question that is, but keen to get the perspective of some stockies who follow financials.

- Lee


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## coolcup (5 June 2013)

Too early to jump in yet. Falling knife and all that.


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## Sharkman (6 June 2013)

i took on a pairs trade involving CBA a couple of weeks ago, on the basis that as of may 30, CBA is the next of the big four due to pay out a divvy and the other three have already gone ex-div

i opted for a diagonal risk reversal on CBA - sold the may $68 puts, bought the june $70 calls. as it was rallying into the close last thurs (and in fact ended up on the day's high), i opted to let the short puts get assigned, took delivery @ $68 and sold back the june calls. the other side of the pair is june $30-$28.50 put spreads on NAB, as NAB is the last of the 3 who report in may to go ex-div (180 day EMA at the time was around $28.50 that's why i chose that as the lower strike)

a little above neutral so far - the june CBA calls didn't really decay that much while i held them, and NAB has fallen by slightly more percentage wise than CBA since the time of the trade, as of the close today - but will see how it goes over the next few weeks til june expiry. though in hindsight maybe i should have slapped a collar around CBA after taking delivery... the market gave me the opportunity, it was around the $68 level in the morning of the day after expiry, i didn't take it for whatever reason (probably distracted by work  )

honestly i expect to get called out on this as a) it's pretty much a punt purely on the basis of the timing differences between the div dates of the two banks, not much more rhyme or reason than that, and b) i have an unlimited risk unlimited reward position on one side of the pairs trade and a limited risk limited reward position on the other. but you live and learn. constructive criticism welcome


----------



## tinhat (6 June 2013)

I sold out of my WBC shares (after having bought more a few days ago - got stop lossed). Today I put that money into CBA @ 66.30 with a stop loss at 66. We are now inside the 45 days before ex-dividend date so I would expect CBA to hold up a  bit better than the other banks which went ex-dividend more recently. Who knows - thus the tight stop loss.


----------



## Sharkman (6 June 2013)

tinhat said:


> I sold out of my WBC shares (after having bought more a few days ago - got stop lossed). Today I put that money into CBA @ 66.30 with a stop loss at 66. We are now inside the 45 days before ex-dividend date so I would expect CBA to hold up a  bit better than the other banks which went ex-dividend more recently. Who knows - thus the tight stop loss.




that is very tight IMHO, given the recent volatility, heck it's daily trading range of late has been 2-7 times that distance

are we inside the 45 days? CBA usually goes ex-div mid august, have they given an indication it will be different this year which i've missed?

agree with your reasoning though


----------



## tinhat (6 June 2013)

Sharkman said:


> that is very tight IMHO, given the recent volatility, heck it's daily trading range of late has been 2-7 times that distance
> 
> are we inside the 45 days? CBA usually goes ex-div mid august, have they given an indication it will be different this year which i've missed?
> 
> agree with your reasoning though




Crap - you are right. I mis-calculated the ex-div date. That means my argument doesn't hold. I've got a feeling my stop loss will get triggered. I mentioned in a recent post that a price under $67 is bearish, but if it holds above $66 it might reverse. I just though we were closer to ex-div which would give the impetus for a reversal.

My stop loss is tight because I entered the trade "calling" a bottom but because there is a good chance I am wrong I don't want to risk too much on the call. At some stage I had planned to buy back these CBA shares, which I sold in three trades a few weeks ago, on a pull-back.


----------



## faddishworm (20 June 2013)

Looks like CBA got hit hard with the rest of the ASX today because of the US fed bond buying decision.

I think some of the new CBA products like that mywealth thing has got to count for something. 

they are sticking by their projections for the AUD - I think they will do well.


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## ROE (7 November 2013)

time to short and short I did at $79 bucks


----------



## herzy (10 November 2013)

ROE said:


> time to short and short I did at $79 bucks




Any reason other than (you feel) it's overpriced?


----------



## ROE (10 November 2013)

herzy said:


> Any reason other than (you feel) it's overpriced?




Over price and law of large number, two things most business cant over come 

They have to deliver over $8b profit at this price without failed and it is possible 
but the year after that they have to deliver close to $9bn profit.

basically at this price everything is price is
house price keep going up, business keep booming and there will be little bad debt...

Price to perfection and you know what more likely to happen


----------



## Uncle Festivus (10 November 2013)

ROE said:


> time to short and short I did at $79 bucks




Might blow off on Monday after Dow lead so looking to short then...............at these prices a lot of promises priced in as well as funny stuff goin on with accounting eg lowering loan loss reserves and presto new record profits, then paying out higher divs from that 'profit'.

They may have been golden up til now, bit just too many eggs in the one basket.......


----------



## TikoMike (10 November 2013)

ROE said:


> Over price and law of large number, two things most business cant over come
> 
> They have to deliver over $8b profit at this price without failed and it is possible
> but the year after that they have to deliver close to $9bn profit.
> ...




Hi ROE, do you mind deleting some of your personal inbox? Just have a quick message I want to send you. Will edit/delete this post once sent.


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## ROE (11 November 2013)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Might blow off on Monday after Dow lead so looking to short then...............at these prices a lot of promises priced in as well as funny stuff goin on with accounting eg lowering loan loss reserves and presto new record profits, then paying out higher divs from that 'profit'.
> 
> They may have been golden up til now, bit just too many eggs in the one basket.......
> 
> View attachment 55201




Yeah AFR has a good article on banks profit they are a actually down if you stripped all the manipulation they been doing for the last 12-15 months on reserve ratio and provision for bad debt etc....

Sound like American banks during their good time parties but how much our banks play with their books it is hard to know until something happen and the dust settles.

Law of large number now comes in play ...not many business can over come this problem...I say probably 100% of the business  can't...it like defined the Newton law of motions...iapple can't
The only thing they can play is their books or report the real deal with is profit decline or stand still


----------



## Uncle Festivus (13 November 2013)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Might blow off on Monday after Dow lead so looking to short then..............




Banks getting creamed today - keeping shorts on........nearly $2 in 2 days now.....


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## ROE (13 November 2013)

oh yeah ..they run pretty hard, thanks to all the commentators said banks shares is better than money in the bank


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## Uncle Festivus (13 November 2013)

Make that down over $3!


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## DJG (13 November 2013)

I'd be watching out for the support for those that are short (unless of course you're short for the longer term...)


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## pavilion103 (15 November 2013)

Cautiously short @ 77.60, stop @ 80.00


----------



## ROE (5 December 2013)

keep going $70 is the step in the right direction


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 December 2013)

I only trade long.

I got out yesterday, with good profit and my divvies.

I cannot see much upside for CBA atm.

It may retrace to $60 , perhaps slightly more.

Decreasing volume on the increase over the past year is apparent on this 10 year chart.

I'll be watching the RSI for a pause and possible move up again at $70






gg


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## pavilion103 (18 December 2013)

It is still looking quite weak on the chart I think. The last few days action isn't too flash. We'll see what happens if any news from the US hits but otherwise I think there is more downside potential.

I got short at around 78 I think. I'll hold this one for a while if it continues down.


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## pavilion103 (20 December 2013)

Out yesterday at 74.50. Too much uncertainty now. Happy to be on the sidelines.


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## dead trader (2 January 2014)

Monthly chart showing a very bearish looking hanging man...

I suspect CBA may almost be due for a correction. Would be interesting to see how it pans out over the rest of January.


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2014)

greasy_pancakes said:


> Monthly chart showing a very bearish looking hanging man...
> 
> I suspect CBA may almost be due for a correction. Would be interesting to see how it pans out over the rest of January.
> 
> View attachment 56090




I regret not buying back in at c.$65 last year. I imagine a catalyst for a correction might be signs of inflation and expectations of interest rates going up (perhaps even US bond rates going up - the "taper" of operation twist). Otherwise, I can't see a reason why the price wouldn't support a yield of 7% fully franked.


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## nomore4s (4 January 2014)

tinhat said:


> I regret not buying back in at c.$65 last year. I imagine a catalyst for a correction might be signs of inflation and expectations of interest rates going up (perhaps even US bond rates going up - the "taper" of operation twist). Otherwise, I can't see a reason why the price wouldn't support a yield of 7% fully franked.




I agree, there is nothing on the chart currently suggesting a major correction. IMO price will range between $74-$80 for a while with maybe a test of support at $70 occasionally but overall the chart still looks quite strong to me. I see no real reason for holders to exit yet especially considering the decent dividend yield it provides year after year.

I currently see more strength at the $70 support then weakness at the $79 resistance, even the support at $74 looks okay. My current view is we will see it break and hold above $80 before we see it break and hold below $70.

Taking short term shorts at around $78-$80 for a quick trade might be a decent strategy, trying to pick longer term corrections is fraught with danger imo. The chances of a v type reversal with this stock are very minimal.


----------



## tech/a (4 January 2014)

*Nothing?*

Weekly chart with some support from the daily
for a topping wave 5 pattern.

*Click to expand.*


----------



## Valued (5 January 2014)

Does anyone have any explanation for end of day 20 December 2013? In the last minute of trading volume spiked to over 2 million or a bit under half the previous days trade in less than a minute. It was over 357 trades with the average trade being about 430k. Retail traders didn't cause 154m dollars to hit the market like that nor did 357 people in a single minute on holidays decide to grab 430k in cash and invest in CBA. 

Interestingly, 2 million shares were sold at just 1 cent each the same day in just three trades. It looks like it was done overnight. It might be options or some sort of other weird rights. Any ideas?

I am more interested in why so much money entered the stock that day. Someone very big was up to something. The question is whether they were buying or selling. All of them were purchased for exactly $75.93 too which is odd. Why would this happen? It could be options again. Then the question is was someone forced to buy or was someone forced to sell?

Source of all data is Iress.


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## nomore4s (6 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> *Nothing?*
> 
> Weekly chart with some support from the daily
> for a topping wave 5 pattern.
> ...




So you would sell based off that chart? I wouldn't but I also wouldn't be buying either. I still see nothing that indicates a major correction at this stage, more likely sideways action for the next few months.


----------



## Valued (6 January 2014)

nomore4s said:


> So you would sell based off that chart? I wouldn't but I also wouldn't be buying either. I still see nothing that indicates a major correction at this stage, more likely sideways action for the next few months.




What would you do if someone put a gun to your head and told you to choose where this will be in 3 months time. I would short under those circumstances.

Tech/a what's the deal with that blue line? It doesn't even touch anything. Neither does the middle line. The red line is a trendline but what are the other two lines for? If you tell me they are trendlines I may have to shoot you I am the arbitrary lines on chart police.


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## nomore4s (7 January 2014)

Valued said:


> What would you do if someone put a gun to your head and told you to choose where this will be in 3 months time. I would short under those circumstances.




That's the thing with the stock market you don't have to do anything if you don't want to, not taking a position is the best position sometimes.

This stock might set up for a short trade as there are signs some of weakness but at this stage there nothing for me to justify a short trade. Anyone who has been holding this stock for any length of time would also not be in any hurry to sell considering the decent return they get just off the dividends.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 January 2014)

Valued said:


> Does anyone have any explanation for end of day 20 December 2013? In the last minute of trading volume spiked to over 2 million or a bit under half the previous days trade in less than a minute. It was over 357 trades with the average trade being about 430k. Retail traders didn't cause 154m dollars to hit the market like that nor did 357 people in a single minute on holidays decide to grab 430k in cash and invest in CBA.
> 
> Interestingly, 2 million shares were sold at just 1 cent each the same day in just three trades. It looks like it was done overnight. It might be options or some sort of other weird rights. Any ideas?
> 
> ...




The day before, 19th, was All Equity Index and Individual Equity Derivatives expiry. That includes options but more importantly futs, It would of been an arbitrage unwind. More than likely a non directional bet. So not much can be read into it. And of course there wasn't just 1 buyer but also an equal and opposite seller so if it was a directional bet its a simple coin toss who will be the winner. So again there isn't anything in it?!


----------



## tech/a (16 January 2014)

Lower high.
Rolling over.
Not a good thing for this stock


----------



## pavilion103 (16 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Lower high. Rolling over. Not a good thing for this stock




Told a friend to short this a few days ago. 
Will continue to watch broader markets also in conjunction with it.


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## Trembling Hand (16 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Lower high.
> Rolling over.
> Not a good thing for this stock




Hasn't made a lower low though. It has made a few lower highs on the looong up trend but - the trend is still intact.


----------



## steelcat (8 April 2014)

*the share price of commonwealth bank is about 80, but the dividend is only 45cents?*

the share price of commonwealth bank is about 80, but the dividend is only 45cents per share?

is it correct?


----------



## ROE (8 April 2014)

*Re: the share price of commonwealth bank is about 80, but the dividend is only 45cent*



steelcat said:


> the share price of commonwealth bank is about 80, but the dividend is only 45cents per share?
> 
> is it correct?




http://lmgtfy.com/?q=https://www.google.com/finance?q=cba.ax#


----------



## ROE (6 May 2014)

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/05/05/3995954.htm


----------



## Tyler Durden (6 May 2014)

ROE said:


> http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/05/05/3995954.htm




Yeah I watched that, really interesting. Although I don't think that type of culture/problem is limited to CBA, it's probably inherent in all banks.


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## nomore4s (14 May 2014)

nomore4s said:


> I agree, there is nothing on the chart currently suggesting a major correction. IMO price will range between $74-$80 for a while with maybe a test of support at $70 occasionally but overall the chart still looks quite strong to me. I see no real reason for holders to exit yet especially considering the decent dividend yield it provides year after year.
> 
> I currently see more strength at the $70 support then weakness at the $79 resistance, even the support at $74 looks okay. My current view is we will see it break and hold above $80 before we see it break and hold below $70.
> 
> Taking short term shorts at around $78-$80 for a quick trade might be a decent strategy, trying to pick longer term corrections is fraught with danger imo. The chances of a v type reversal with this stock are very minimal.




Well it has broken above $80 today and played out pretty much as I thought it might.

Now to see if it can hold above $80.


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## notting (3 July 2014)

They don't think it's going to be material to share holders CBA has committed fraud!!
Aaah.  Sorry.  But this is a devastating reputational issue.  It could take all the shine off.
They got off scott free on the QLD thing they were backing, that fell over and ruined lives , now this.
2 strikes is enough.  The other banks should go to town on advertising saying you can trust us!!

Been building a big short on this and big long on NAB to disclose.


----------



## nulla nulla (3 July 2014)

notting said:


> They don't think it's going to be material to share holders CBA has committed fraud!!
> Aaah.  Sorry.  But this is a devastating reputational issue.  It could take all the shine off.
> They got off scott free on the QLD thing they were backing, that fell over and ruined lives , now this.
> 2 strikes is enough.  The other banks should go to town on advertising saying you can trust us!!
> ...




You could probably read something into the fact that the other banks haven't gone to town advertising "you can trust us". They are probably looking over there own shoulders as they clean up their files anticipating outside scrutiny that is likely to come as fall out from the CBA debacle.


----------



## notting (3 July 2014)

Yeah but CBA have only just owned up so not much time to go to town yet.
I doubt the others were doing the same.


----------



## ROE (3 July 2014)

Royal inquiry is needed, what they said today is very vague...

it been bubbling for a few years now and all this time CBA been dodging it but the pressure is now on
and they finally decided to front up but they still very vague.

something is hidden in the closet and they dont want it to come out

http://www.theage.com.au/business/c...whistleblower-jeff-morris-20140703-zsuli.html

with that view I short again today


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## VSntchr (3 July 2014)

notting said:


> I doubt the others were doing the same.




I can assure you that the activities highlighted in media articles are in no way confined to CBA FP!!


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## Vixs (3 July 2014)

ROE said:


> Royal inquiry is needed, what they said today is very vague...
> 
> it been bubbling for a few years now and all this time CBA been dodging it but the pressure is now on
> and they finally decided to front up but they still very vague.
> ...




Doubt that this will be the catalyst for a share price fall on its own ROE - the media can beat up all they like but talk of a royal commission is a joke.

They've turned over management, processes and remunerations models since this occurred and from friends working there now I've gotta say they go through a lot more compliance checking than I do at an independent firm.

Beware of getting your truth from the media, you're wiser than that .


----------



## banco (3 July 2014)

Vixs said:


> Doubt that this will be the catalyst for a share price fall on its own ROE - the media can beat up all they like but talk of a royal commission is a joke.
> 
> They've turned over management, processes and remunerations models since this occurred and from friends working there now I've gotta say they go through a lot more compliance checking than I do at an independent firm.
> 
> Beware of getting your truth from the media, you're wiser than that .




They are a disgraceful organization that apparently employs more than a few sociopaths.  Looks like nobody is going down for sanitizing the files of clients (polite word for doctoring and fraud).

If it hadn't been for the media that nest of sociopaths would never have been exposed.  As usual ASIC was worse than useless.


----------



## ROE (3 July 2014)

Vixs said:


> Doubt that this will be the catalyst for a share price fall on its own ROE - the media can beat up all they like but talk of a royal commission is a joke.
> 
> They've turned over management, processes and remunerations models since this occurred and from friends working there now I've gotta say they go through a lot more compliance checking than I do at an independent firm.
> 
> Beware of getting your truth from the media, you're wiser than that .




No I am not getting my stuff  from the media just posting link.

law of large numbers is on my side and CBA has to be doing dodgy stuff to grow earning
and sooner or later it will come out.

be it financial advisor or risky lending or derivatives trading

All business when it get to a certain size face 2 choices, doing things properly and by the law
and you get no grow or negative grow or maintain the image and grow at all cost

CBA takes the second option and I like to bet against business that does that  

I could be wrong but 2-3 years is my time frame to get it wrong or right


----------



## Vixs (3 July 2014)

ROE said:


> No I am not getting my stuff  from the media just posting link.
> 
> law of large numbers is on my side and CBA has to be doing dodgy stuff to grow earning
> and sooner or later it will come out.
> ...




It is interesting that the most recent figure I saw for potential compensation was around $250m - breaking my own rule and getting that one from the media - but that would be a drop in the sea for even 6 months earnings. It would make up the majority of the wealth management unit profit for a half, but as a one off that would hardly be the end of the world.

The factors that would lead to CBA dropping are likely to effect the other banks in kind, right? Those being upsets in lending/property market disruption/general global pulback?


----------



## goccipgp (3 July 2014)

Technically speaking, a break of 82.685 could move the stock up to 96.576. Got upgraded to a buy at au stoxline.


----------



## dead trader (23 July 2014)

goccipgp said:


> ... Got upgraded to a buy at au stoxline.




Personally I believe people who rely on others to give them the hot stock tip of the day are not successful investors in the long run.

The majority do what the minority don't.
Actions determine results, and guess which group hold the bigger piece of the pie? [emoji6]


----------



## boofhead (26 August 2014)

I can see the new PERLS offering helping reduce costs. PERLS VII margin is 2.8 compared to the 3.4 of PERLS V it will be replacing. Yes, more PERLS VII will be on market though.


----------



## edgykativu (26 August 2014)

*Re: CBA*



Bingo said:


> I think that the banking sector will find it hard to maintain its' profit growth. However, the yields are good and profit and dividends will still rise albeit at a slower rate, so unless interest rates have a significant rise they still seem to be excellent to hold. That is you receive a good fully franked dividend and a steady capital gain.
> 
> It is interesting to follow the paper reports. Not long ago it was all about the banking sector has had its day and it was time to sell. The bank share prices are up about 7% since then and now I read in the Financial Review to-day that bank shares may rise because as the weight of NCP reduces in the S&P the banks weights will increase and therefore the institutions will need to buy the banks to maintain their weights. This is obiously true of any sector other than NCP.
> 
> ...




i think @ 80 cba is well valued , only new earnings can push sp ...but wouldn't be surprised by an upgrade ..


----------



## rimtas (12 November 2014)

There is a slight probability that CBA could form a Quasi Fractal. Based on Fib projections, F3 bottom could be somewhere in a 73-71 range. This Fractal would be confirmed by EW count  so it would have an extremely high probability  of a thrust higher from there, I'd say above 100 mark. 

The rise above 84 by not making a new bottom would negate an expanding fractal scenario.

Bendigo Bank (BEN) could sport the similar fractal structure. Let's wait and see, could take a few weeks.


----------



## chrisguy (24 November 2014)

*cba day chart24.11*



At 10.05amm i knew that cba would go to 8060 then fall back to around 8030. Pretty handy if you day trade options or cfds. Not infallible and not easy some days. I have 3 supporting charts that give an indication of reliability or otherwise. Difficult sometimes matching opening to yesterdays close and streamlining procedure to upload quickly.
To clarify in terms of dollas and cents. you know cba will go to 8060 and will change direction around points 30 -35 or around 10.30am as happened. At that point in time 8100 call option are trading @24cents. When cba reaches 8060 they are 33cents. You know cba will fall back to at least 8030. 8000 puts are 30cents at the high of 8060 and increase to 38cents with cba at 8030. These are modest moves for CBA and the option prices movement improves as expiry approaches.


----------



## PennD (25 November 2014)

Hi Chris,
Can i ask, what are the pt4, pt66 etc... is this minutes/time.
I like your trading style.. like AB DeVilliers just pushing 1's 2's next thing his on 80 from 70 balls, instead of going the slog 
Cheers


----------



## Triathlete (25 November 2014)

rimtas said:


> There is a slight probability that CBA could form a Quasi Fractal. Based on Fib projections, F3 bottom could be somewhere in a 73-71 range. This Fractal would be confirmed by EW count  so it would have an extremely high probability  of a thrust higher from there, I'd say above 100 mark.
> 
> The rise above 84 by not making a new bottom would negate an expanding fractal scenario.
> 
> ...




Hi Rimtas...Just to clarify your chart are you saying that unless we see CBA make a new bottom at the $71-$73 range first then CBA will not continue higher towards the $100 mark? I am using a monthly chart at present and have also found that my strongest levels are $82.65,$101.90,$114.20 if the stock continues higher and a support level around $66.50 if things go pear shape. I was hoping to see a break above $83.92 on a higher low and higher high to confirm the stock was ready to resume an upward movement towards the $102 level? I have the the stock  on a LT wave 3 and a sub wave 4 that has retraced 25% but yet to confirm the sub wave 5 has started on the monthly  chart. 
Your thoughts


----------



## rimtas (25 November 2014)

Hi, 

My last post was about the posibility that the Fractal could form in CBA. Just in case CBA will dive, I would be informed what is happening, and no any suprises whatsoever at this point.  The form of the two fractals is the key-if they are similar, then the the pattern has a forecasting value.  

At this stage it is early to tell whether the market will go that way.  I'd better tell what I see in EW terms.

 I do agree that from 2009  CBA advanced in Three waves, just it is not clear about how we can label the last Top. Is it realy wave (3)? If it is, then where is wave (4)? If you put  a (4) label on the last bottom at 73, then it looks too short comparing it with wave (2), which lasted more that year and a half. Just two months correction for wave    (4)? I doubt it. 
The whole purpose of the corection at this degree is to correct a Bulish sentiment, to force people to throw in the towel, if you know what I mean. To make them feel the same as they felt in 2011-2012.  Two months and 13%  price drop  just can't do this. Also, using  EW channelling technique, You can see that it has much more to  go (in terms of time) in order to reach the lower line.  I can't  say that this is impossible, but we must face the fact that only CBA from all major banks sported such a nice and steep wave from 2011 bottom.

Other banks just don't look right for a (3) wave top.  More than that, they are in a correction that lasts more than a year, and most likely this correction is in the later stages. This doesn't leave much room for CBA to sport a year long correction _from now_, if other banks start to rally.  So I put an Alternative label- maybe it is just  the first wave of (3)? 







But let's leave the logic aside and say that wave (4) ended at 73, and 1 wave of (5) is done. 
Using Fib relationships were wave (4) subdivides the entire Impulse into 38,2/61,8 ratio, we can predict a Top at ~103,6.  But to reach this target price must stay in a Channel,  and this means that CBA will climb at least 3 years to reach it. I doesn't make sense... Otherwise it will brake the Channel upwards, adding more evidence that the upcoming advance is not the wave (5).  



It is hard to trade CBA at this stage, (unless buy and hold). It would look better if it could have more sideways movement, at least a Fractal that I was talking about.  I personally see a better setups in other banks. If you enter it now, the stop distance is too great...  Then it is probably better to wait until it takes out ATH and use this breakout as an entry, but this is not for me, the degree of the breakout is too big... I'd rather prefer to pick up bottoms...

Cheers,


----------



## Triathlete (26 November 2014)

rimtas said:


> Hi,
> 
> My last post was about the posibility that the Fractal could form in CBA. Just in case CBA will dive, I would be informed what is happening, and no any suprises whatsoever at this point.  The form of the two fractals is the key-if they are similar, then the the pattern has a forecasting value.
> 
> ...




Hi,
    Thanks for that assessment.I tend to agree I also do not believe that the SW3 is complete and that the SW4 which I have marked is only a possibility and agree is too short at this stage.Where I am confused is when I take a look at the weekly chart in relation to this SW 4  it shows that it has broken up into 3 waves of lesser degree and within the % ranges that a wave 4 usually divides into?
I also like your Alternative of it still being a wave 1 of a LT wave 3 now that would be something,I like your thinking!!! 
Cheers!


----------



## piggybank (22 December 2014)

ATH reached today after breaking the resistance of around the $83.70 mark.


----------



## financialreports (3 January 2015)

Although CBA offers an attractive return of approximately 6% per annum, the share price is quite high and it would take a quite a few years to justify the discrepancy between book value and price currently. Whether it is a good investment would depend on the opportunity cost for the individual.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 January 2015)

What is "opportunity cost"?


----------



## Triathlete (3 January 2015)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> What is "opportunity cost"?




Opportunity cost is the cost of a foregone alternative. If you chose one alternative over another, then the cost of choosing that alternative is an opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is the benefits you lose by choosing one alternative over another one. The opportunity cost of choosing one investment over another one.

The term opportunity cost is often used in finance and economics when trying to choose one investment, either financial or capital, over another. It is a measure of any economic choice as compared to the next best one.

Example:

There is an opportunity cost over choosing an investment in bonds over an investment in stocks.


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## Julia (3 January 2015)

Another example in addition to Triathlete's explanation would be sitting in a non-performing stock for a sustained period while you could have had that money in another stock which is making good gains.


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## Toyota Lexcen (3 January 2015)

Thanks, you would have to be a very good investor/stock or asset picker to avoid that then i reckon


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## notting (6 May 2015)

Biggest one day drop in 6 years
WOW!!
Beautiful.
It's the greatest stock in our market.
I hate this stock.
As a shorter it's natural.
Bond markets are selling off and so the yield obsession is now a value trap.

Lets' see Greece default, the US stay looking weak and the game is back on!!!!!!!!!


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## Triathlete (6 May 2015)

Looks like getting out at $93.90 does not look like a bad move now going on todays drop in price.

We might get a buying opportunity to trade the stock as per the previous analysis post 502 on 24/11/2014.
Currently we are at a previous support level and it will be interesting to see if CBA  will hold here or goes as far as the next strong support at $66.50 all based on the monthly chart above.
Interesting times ahead...!!!!


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## Muschu (6 May 2015)

notting said:


> Biggest one day drop in 6 years
> WOW!!
> Beautiful.
> It's the greatest stock in our market.
> ...




And let's watch as the world collapses [we wouldn't hope for this would we?] and forget the profits that CBA has returned to share holders these past 6 years.


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## Porper (6 May 2015)

Muschu said:


> And let's watch as the world collapses [we wouldn't hope for this would we?] and forget the profits that CBA has returned to share holders these past 6 years.




A big call to be all doom and gloom...both the broader market and CBA. Why would anybody pick one of the strongest stocks on the ASX to short? Plenty of support for CBA in this area too.


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## Miner (6 May 2015)

Julia said:


> Another example in addition to Triathlete's explanation would be sitting in a non-performing stock for a sustained period while you could have had that money in another stock which is making good gains.




By any chance could this be Julia's last post on ASF ?


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## banco (6 May 2015)

I do wonder if today's fall in the CBA is going to be looked on as the beginning of something a couple of years from now.  Just as what were seen as relatively minor events in the US during the runup to the GFC took on new significance later.


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## Muschu (6 May 2015)

Porper said:


> A big call to be all doom and gloom...both the broader market and CBA. Why would anybody pick one of the strongest stocks on the ASX to short? Plenty of support for CBA in this area too.




As a long term holder I am certainly not about to desert CBA.. I might not like "banks" but the returns, as a retiree, have been helpful.

I am troubled by people who appear to almost "want" doom and gloom... And who appear not to understand what this may bring to so many good people...


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## rimtas (6 May 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Currently we are at a previous support level and it will be interesting to see if CBA  will hold here or goes as far as the next strong support at $66.50 all based on the monthly chart above.




You reckon this is valid? We discused this possibility earlier, it is still too early to make any conclusion, but if CBA drops in five and breaks 73.55  i'd say it's over. Let's wait and see. If it happens I change my super to cash as they are invested heavily in CBA and other big 3


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## rimtas (6 May 2015)

Another way of interpreting things is that only wave (3) has toped out, this scenario says that a year or so will give no net progress, but CBA should not make 5 wave decline in the upcoming weeks.  ANZ wave structure supports this scenario better as well.  For a bigger top everything pretty much should be aligned for a crash, but now market is still  fractured.


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## Triathlete (7 May 2015)

rimtas said:


> You reckon this is valid? We discused this possibility earlier, it is still too early to make any conclusion, but if CBA drops in five and breaks 73.55  i'd say it's over. Let's wait and see. If it happens I change my super to cash as they are invested heavily in CBA and other big 3




Yes Rimtas  I know we have spoken about CBA a while ago and below is a summary of my own analysis on the monthly chart we will see what happens. 

I am out of CBA presently and was able to ride the last rise successfully from $ 84 to $94 before getting out, so now will wait to try again when it is right.

Based on my monthly chart price table $66.50 comes out as a possible worst case scenario personally I would be very surprised if it did get to here but would certainly give everyone a good buying opportunity.

There is some slight support around, $76.85 and $78.30 and were it is today is a stronger support level at $82.67  so it will need to break all these levels first.

It is a must to hold $82.65 here otherwise it will move lower to the other levels based on my price analysis and worst case $66.50.

Interesting times!!!.


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## rryall (7 May 2015)

Muschu said:


> As a long term holder I am certainly not about to desert CBA.. I might not like "banks" but the returns, as a retiree, have been helpful.
> 
> I am troubled by people who appear to almost "want" doom and gloom... And who appear not to understand what this may bring to so many good people...




I think there is a big difference between "wanting" doom and gloom and "expecting" doom and gloom. I can only speak for myself but I'm certainly in the latter category.


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## notting (7 May 2015)

rryall said:


> I think there is a big difference between "wanting" doom and gloom and "expecting" doom and gloom. I can only speak for myself but I'm certainly in the latter category.




Good point. 
For me I'm always wanting the best for all, however sometimes I see things very differently and want to help others see that when I'm confident about it.

Can't believe the size of NABs capital raising announced today.
They are traitors diluting their share holders at the worst time.
They were the first to raise during the GFC.
Only ANZ waited patiently and raised in a better environment than all the others, none of them needed to raise during the GFC, they should have stuck to their guns take a downgraded rating and done buy backs! If the agencies are that stupid and watch em crank the grade up again 6 months later. 
CBA did a cracker deal with that WA bank they bought during the GFC so their raising was OK cause they bought something cheap with it!!!!!!! Incredible business.


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## Muschu (7 May 2015)

rryall said:


> I think there is a big difference between "wanting" doom and gloom and "expecting" doom and gloom. I can only speak for myself but I'm certainly in the latter category.




Yes I agree.... Although I don't wish to "expect" gloom either... Let's see what happens.


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## rimtas (30 June 2015)

CBA has an interesting structure here. From the Top it declined in five waves, then rebounded in five and in the last days also declined in five. So Three fives on a chart. Interestingly, each "five" corrected almost 50% of the previous wave. 
This juncture  basically can resolve itself under only one scenario- before CBA tanks below $79, it first climbs above $87. Blue line presents possible scenario how this could unfold. I am keen to enter this trade as the smell of easy money is going out from this chart. 

Most likely enter point could be at $82, but this I will determine as waves unfold to this point and depending on structure here the low risk  entry point will be seen(I expect so).

All Ords also supports the case of the rebound as I discussed the case here today https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=873730&viewfull=1#post873730


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## Triathlete (18 August 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Based on my monthly chart price table $66.50 comes out as a possible worst case scenario at this stage.
> 
> Personally I would be very surprised if it did get to here but would certainly give everyone a good buying opportunity.
> 
> ...





Is  CBA  about to go lower???

Currently on a EW 4 by my calculation so at this stage I would expect the stock to continue lower....I am still keeping my eye on $66.50 at this stage..

What are peoples view after todays price drop??


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## Triathlete (22 August 2015)

Just updated my weekly CBA chart and now expecting the stock to find support at $72.50 before turning and moving higher.

This is not financial advice and for educational purpose only.


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## rimtas (10 September 2015)

Hi Triathlete,

In regards to your anticipated W4, please take a look at this comparison chart and answer those questions:





1)Does the rise from 2011 bottom really looks like W3, in all other instruments? Does it has this "feel" of W3-strong, fast and relentless?

2) How would W4 and then W5 would look in all other instruments, who has overlaps and are below 2007 high?

3)Does fundamentals support the case that from 2011 economy hit the strongest note?

4) What is the best feeling when looking at those charts from 2009, is it a three wave correction, or soon to be five wave advance, in all of them together?


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## Triathlete (10 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Hi Triathlete,
> 
> In regards to your anticipated W4, please take a look at this comparison chart and answer those questions:
> 
> ...





Hi Rimtas,
               Looking at your comparison charts and the marked overlaps it is starting to look like we are in an ABC correction phase.

The only one that looked like a W3 on your chart was CBA.

I myself am waiting to see whether or not the All Ords can stay above 5069 as I use the closing price on the monthly chart and as yet it has. If it closes below here then I would say we are in a wave C and going lower.

I only use EW as a wave progression tool and whether the percentage levels are met or not.

So for example: 

A wave 3 usually rises 162% to 262 % of W1 and  a minimum 100%.

If we look at the All Ords it rose 100% and CBA rose 162% up till April 2015 from there W2 lows before they turned down and have been waiting since to see what is going to happen.

This is when I got out of the market.

How W4 and W5 for other instruments will depend now on what happens in the market and whether we go into a C wave down if we close below 5069.

Then my view will change and go with ABC long term correction from 2007.


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## Porper (11 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Hi Rimtas,
> 
> The only one that looked like a W3 on your chart was CBA.




You are absolutely correct Triathlete...CBA chart shows a wave-3 still at this point. This may change of course but only when the smaller degree patterns change.

Showing several other hand picked charts in correction mode means nothing. If we all did that then we would assume every chart was corrective. Do not fall into that trap. Every chart should be labelled without outside influences.


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## PennD (11 September 2015)

Porper said:


> Every chart should be labelled without outside influences.




Not so much if you have the main index showing a different count.
I shows that stock is going to have to go against the rest of the market.


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## Porper (11 September 2015)

PennD said:


> Not so much if you have the main index showing a different count.
> I shows that stock is going to have to go against the rest of the market.




Plenty of stocks buck the trend of the broader market, that's my point. 

CBA is one of those that has outperformed. If you'd been expecting it to hit the wave equality projection and retrace you'd have closed positions around $77.84 and lost a lot of potential profit. This latest leg higher has been 1.618x the length of the first leg. More indicative of Wave-3...not Wave-C. That's not to say the wave count is set in stone as it never is.


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## rimtas (11 September 2015)

Don't listen to Porper, he is useless. He lives in an Elliot style fitted house, drinks from Elliot cup that he bought at the auction for 2000 bucks, and smokes cigars named "Elliot".  

Penn D pointed out correct-one stock, especially blue chip and major index constituent, won't buck the All Ords trend, it will make it. If you want to know where the market is going you must see the bigger picture, that is derived from all major stocks and see how your projected scenarios fit within those structures. 

CBA, and the market overall, from here has only Three scenarios that could unfold. Others are more complex, and from the centuries of data I can say that in the largest degrees market uses simplest forms of corrections, so expecting some wxy would be stupid.




1) Large Running Triangle, lasting another 5-6 years or so. Many other smaller banks that are below ATH don't support this scenario very well, but if this Three wave sideways movement continues, they will sport nice EW structures, like double threes. 

2) Series one's and Two's. Maybe this 5mo correction is a bit small in time and larger sideways corrective pattern emerges til mid 2016, but Shanghai and Sensex structures are pointing out that it is over and market is ready to rock'n roll. _All_ world indexes (especialy Asian)and many stocks would fit into this scenario very well.

3)Expandet 3-3-5 Flat - Simplest of them all-Wave c, five wave affair, crash to new lows, somewhere to 2700(in XAO) where larger degree trend channel support sits.  Will be quick and must end til mid 2016. Basically the last biggest market opportunity provided to those who are born after 1970's. The rest and older, who bought today, simply won't have enough time to recover and see substantial gains in their lifetimes if do not add to their positions in the face of collapsing world around them.

Thankfully we can use CBA chart as the last one or don't even bother to look at it at all as there are plenty of other stocks and indices which can point out early which scenario is unfolding-best, middle or worst. But I would say that if last's months lows are to be breached, bullish scenario gains least chances  and we are left with the remaining two bearish.

CBA and the market overall rise from 2011 looks tired, the slope is not steep, fundamentals do not support third wave scenario, and in many stocks it is a corrective affair, or barely reached 2010's highs, small caps even went in different direction. So it is best can be described as another first wave, or wave C(circled).


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## tinhat (12 September 2015)

This threat and recent events...

Entertainment Value == gold.

Shorting of CBA ahead of a retail entitlement offer. Reported shortfall (50%) of entitlement offer all at a very reasonable price in my opinion (I took up my entitlement).

Grabe!


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## Triathlete (12 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> CBA, and the market overall, from here has only Three scenarios that could unfold. Others are more complex, and from the centuries of data I can say that in the largest degrees market uses simplest forms of corrections, so expecting some wxy would be stupid.
> 
> View attachment 64268
> 
> ...




Hi Rimtas,

 I would like to ask you.... as you have mentioned that you only like to trade using EW.

 When you have worked out a likely trade that you are going to take.

* How do you work out how far the likely move is going to be.?*

 I am asking because using my own analysis and techniques on my previous posts in CBA,WOW and BHP. 

 They all hit there price mark and were mentioned on this forum at least 5 months before it happened.

 I enjoy your posts on EW because it is much more advanced then what I use.

 I just like to keep EW simple and by incorporating Price, Pattern and Time analysis seems to get me the results I require at this stage.


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## Smurf1976 (12 September 2015)

No sure about the share price but I do wish that this bank would fix their IT systems.

Another day, another failure. Netbank is down yet again. Seems to be happening roughly once a month lately, although this is now the third failure in a week.

Keep this up and they'll be losing customers I expect.


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## Porper (13 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Don't listen to Porper, he is useless.
> 1) Large Running Triangle.




Yes Rimtas, that is why I do this as a job and have been for donkey's years. You admit you don't have the skill to do this. Enough said.

Just a few things. First of all you say you are an Elliott Wave guru (an Elliottician) and you can't even spell it. It is not "Elliot".

Secondly I have always said trading using Elliott Wave alone is not the way to go.

Thirdly, you are the self-appointed guru on the subject who does nothing but constantly changes his counts and analysis...many on here have pointed this out to you; so listen to them. You are super bullish, then super bearish and now apparently say the XAO is a lottery...make up your mind. You seem a very confused person to me.

Finally you cannot make a decent wave count full stop. You have parabolic moves higher (WOW thread) highlighted as a corrective 3-wave move. I thought you was joking at first but no, you are serious...lol

Also, you laughed at me ages ago for suggesting CBA could be making a large triangle and now I see you have it as 1 of your possibilities. Mind you, you've covered all bases. 1 bullish count, 1 neutral and 1 bearish. Congratulations, you will no doubt be spouting soon that you were correct. I think you need help...seriously.

I'll leave you to it.


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## coolcup (13 September 2015)

Porper said:


> Thirdly, you are the self-appointed guru on the subject who does nothing but constantly changes his counts and analysis...many on here have pointed this out to you; so listen to them. You are super bullish, then super bearish and now apparently say the XAO is a lottery...make up your mind. You seem a very confused person to me.
> 
> Mind you, you've covered all bases. 1 bullish count, 1 neutral and 1 bearish. Congratulations, you will no doubt be spouting soon that you were correct. I think you need help...seriously.




Thank goodness it wasn't just me thinking this...


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## rimtas (13 September 2015)

Porper said:


> Also, you laughed at me ages ago for suggesting CBA could be making a large triangle and now I see you have it as 1 of your possibilities..
> 
> I'll leave you to it.




I am still laughing at your triangle.  Mine is at different degree, lol.







And mine is not the No1 possibility, just on the chart it is presented first in the row. All three scenarios today have equal possibilities. We need to see certain price action/levels breached to eliminate two of them.


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## rimtas (13 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> * How do you work out how far the likely move is going to be.?*.




Trading Waves involves a pattern recognition. Opening the position I do not know how far prices will go. But I always anticipate the certain pattern to emerge-it could be small, big, steep or sloping.

So basically trading Wave Principe is simple-you saw one complete pattern-opened a position, and from this you anticipate what market will do next and what pattern it _shoud_ sport. 
 You simply wait for the waves to develop and exit when the pattern looks likely complete. Anything that goes beyond your expectations in regard to_ form _can be used as a decision for yearly exit, that what happened when I was holding WOW-it has risen 7% from my entry point, but the next move it made I recognized as "alien" which shouldn't be there and exited with +5%. Later it rose a bit further, but the pattern I anticipated on entry was busted early in the advance and my observations and trading methodology proved that my analysis that was incorporated in trading plan were right, as always. 

Trading Waves doesn't involve trading price, it is only trading the _form_. You can't mix anything else with Wave Principle, it must be used alone, because there are no any indicators which can tell you that the form of the pattern is right, complete, or recognized. 

 Gartleys, RSI, Standart deviations, moving averages, fibonacci-they do not and can not tell what kind of pattern is emerging, only Wave Principle can tell this and you need to train your brain to recognize them. Very small amount of people have brains which are good in geometric dimensions. I would say that architects could also trade WP successfully, as an example. Ones who sees things only in two dimensions, can not trade WP.

My main  trading strategy is to recognize first and second waves, and enter into anticipated third. It is the easiest part to keep the trade-if the price doesn't behave like third wave, I exit. If it behaves, I wait for the complete count. Expected Third waves are easiest thing to trade when the trade is opened, and they rarely give you a stop in red. That's where my main focus is. Not to mention that theiy give the biggest profit compared to any other market move. Take a few third waves (even in shorter time frames)in a year and you are good to stay still till the next.

Thanks for asking.


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## IFocus (13 September 2015)

Gents in the interest of all other members interested in your analysis can you Fu(king get over the self indulgence criticism of each others analysis FFS.

FFS X2  its the markets and it will do what ever it feels like, none of you repeat *none of you* have the absolute crystal ball.

No if no buts.

You have opinions thats all nothing more no matter what method you use.

We are all interested in your opinions on the market and value them all even if they are 180 degrees apart.

We are not interested in petty fu(king point scoring please it demeans all.

OK got that of my chest feel free to flame me but give the rest a break


Cheers


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## cynic (13 September 2015)

IFocus said:


> Gents in the interest of all other members interested in your analysis can you Fu(king get over the self indulgence criticism of each others analysis FFS.
> 
> FFS X2  its the markets and it will do what ever it feels like, none of you repeat *none of you* have the absolute crystal ball.
> 
> ...




+1 

IFOCUS, I am quite confident that you are by no means alone with your sentiments in this regard.

I cannot offer any specific analysis of CBA as it's some years since I've traded ordinary shares.

What I can say, having been a very long term cusotmer, is that after some annoyance which resulted in me taking much of my banking business elsewhere, was repeatedly thwarted when the CBA subsequently acquired each of the banks concerned. 

After having the aforementioned experience twice, I was reluctant to further tempt fate and am now resigned to the likelihood that I'll probably be a CBA customer for the remainder of my days!


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## Triathlete (13 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> *Trading Waves involves a pattern recognition*. Opening the position I do not know how far prices will go.




Thanks for that explanation Rimtas.

You mentioned pattern recognition, that is what I thought the chart I put up was.

I have it as a wave 4 retracing and to me the pattern/wave will not be busted unless it breaks below $60 at that point I would reassess.

It does not bother me at the moment either way because I am not in at the moment but will be interesting to see what happens from here.


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## rimtas (13 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Thanks for that explanation Rimtas.
> 
> You mentioned pattern recognition, that is what I thought the chart I put up was.
> 
> ...




I know that CBA still has a possibility to make w4 as you and Porper anticipate, and if CBA would be trading alone in the market I would probably also would think about this possibility. My  assessment of possibilities doesn't limit to one stock-I apply the same anticipated count to the entire sector, the simmilar moving stocks, and the market overall. If the majority contadicts to this possibility, I just reject it. I never trade stock and think that it will make it's own waves. I'd rather go with that count which favours majority of instruments, especialy those who are making trends. You should have already noticed that I never trade, comment or make any analysis on other stocks than bluse chips.  Because even sometimes they have nice waves, but it is hard to put money on the count when you see index or sector contradicts.


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## gartley (14 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Thanks for that explanation Rimtas.
> 
> 
> I am not in at the moment but will be interesting to see what happens from here.




I went into banks last week, for me taking the cycles I use at face value then clearly we should get a good run over the next 2 weeks.  I won't get involved in the ongoing arguments over CBA wave structure. I personally think very long term wave counts are difficult as I have made made mention before.


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## rimtas (15 September 2015)

gartley said:


> I went into banks last week, for me taking the cycles I use at face value then clearly we should get a good run over the next 2 weeks. .




Gartley, you must be afraid that some sort of bullbear.com will write a review later of how you expected up trend to continue and longed banks, which are leading XAO down. History is repeating-Prechter shorted SPX about half year in uptrend with a strong bearish argument, you are longing banks in downtrend with a strong bulish (technical) argument.  
And you are not providing any stop loss levels, alternate scenarios or explanations what to do and when if markets will go against you. TYou claimed that you are living from your trading, so probably many newbies are following your (non-existent) cycles and gartleys and loosing money everytime. Be responsible. If you went public, you want to be respected and recognized in virtual reality(because in real life you can't do this), you must go till the end. Not just throw a message and then just roll out like a snake throwing in some post factum market info.


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## gartley (15 September 2015)

Yesterday Jow Blow * insisted that personal attacks and insults end now...*

Obviously you don't care about that and have decided you will do what you want. Says a lot about your character...

In my parting comments to you Rimtas I will say to you as follows:

1/ Yes I am still in the banks and have not been stopped out yet. 

2/ From my very *first* post on this forum I have received nothing but criticism from you. That's fine, it's a public forum but others should know that.

Prechter should be accountable as he get's paid. As for the newbies I am sure you have a greater following than I do.


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## Porper (15 September 2015)

gartley said:


> Yesterday Jow Blow * insisted that personal attacks and insults end now...*
> 
> Obviously you don't care about that and have decided you will do what you want. Says a lot about your character...




I haven't responded to personal insults the past couple of days...or read any new ones, but if a certain member is still being provocative I think the mods should step in and put an end to it. 

Some of us have recently posted analysis for discussion and perhaps even critique...not ridicule and insults.

My last post on the subject...let's move on.


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## rimtas (15 September 2015)

Porper said:


> My last post on the subject...let's move on.




I hear it almost at your every post. How many more last posts will you write, untill you finaly stop?
It would be great if you could take your stance as you did in the last 12 months-just be a silent reader. The forum would benefit greatly from this.


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## rimtas (15 September 2015)

gartley said:


> . Says a lot about your character...




Thanks, I like yours too.


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## Triathlete (16 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Trading Waves doesn't involve trading price, it is only trading the form. *You can't mix anything else with Wave Principle, it must be used alone*, because there are no any indicators which can tell you that the form of the pattern is right, complete, or recognized.




Hi Rimtas,
               I do not quite agree with you on what you stated above, only because I use a different technique.

What I have been taught and shown does include using Price analysis and Wave theory analysis and seems to me to compliment each other in regards to getting the odds of having successful trades.

For myself I always like to start off with some price analysis to find out the strongest price levels of a stock. As you would know not all support and resistance levels are meaningful that's why we need to pinpoint the strongest ones which I do by making up price tables first.

Once I have these levels I mark them on my chart. I then mark up the EW and this allows me to see where we are with the wave principle in relation to the strongest price level and gives me a much better understanding as to where the stock price is likely to move to as well as how far the move is likely to move both on the upside and downside prior to placing a trade...This seems to work well for me.


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## gartley (16 September 2015)

I agree Triathlete, and do likewise too. "Look left first,  because price structure will leave clues".


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## gartley (16 September 2015)

Interesting article about some big banks around the world starting to shed jobs. As the bear market in the banking and finance sector continues here no doubt we will see likewise within the big 4.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/38934/big-banks-cutting-tens-of-thousands-of-jobs-huge-implications


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## rimtas (16 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Hi Rimtas,
> I do not quite agree with you on what you stated above, only because I use a different technique.
> .




That's al right. I don't use plain EW as well, it is rubbish. Elliott was blind with one eye so he missed a lot of things. I am more with the fact that markets move in fractals, which consists of waves, sometimes they are indeed Elliot waves .Progressing  Elliot waves sports fractals at different degrees of trend, I use them as entry/exit point. 

So my understanding of markets is purely geometrical, where price and time doesn't exists, just the form, which is different each time. But to grasp this is quite easy when you adopt the main idea.


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## PennD (17 December 2015)

Looking through various charts trying to find some clear patterns CBA has stood out to me.
First there is a strong channel on the Daily





Which could form the right shoulder of a Large downward sloping head and shoulders pattern? To early to tell...?




Housing crash?


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## Quant (17 December 2015)

CBA  Slow moving dinosaur , pays to look at the big picture sometimes


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## PennD (17 December 2015)

Quant said:


> CBA  Slow moving dinosaur , pays to look at the big picture sometimes
> 
> View attachment 65341




In lay mans terms?


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## Triathlete (17 December 2015)

My thoughts on CBA is that a EW 5 has started and the stock to move higher over time even with the negativity on the banks.
My previous analysis showed the $72.50 to be a strong support level and this seems to be the case and was also around the 50% retracement level for a wave 4.We have had a few higher highs and higher lows from this turn.
There was also a head and shoulders pattern but this also seem to have not moved as far as I had previously anticipated which was a move towards $60.
So have bought in at $76.26 after the Gann swing lets see what happens......


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## Porper (18 December 2015)

Triathlete said:


> My thoughts on CBA is that a EW 5 has started and the stock to move higher over time even with the negativity on the banks.




A couple of things worth considering.

First of all wave-4 is usually not a zigzag, it's often a flat pattern or a triangle. Wave-2 is normally the "sharp" correction.

Secondly, symmetry is lacking in terms of time. Wave-4 is almost always longer in terms of time than wave-2 which clearly isn't the case here.

Also, if we are seeing wave-5 unfold (possible, but low probability) then strong impulsive price action should be taking place. Again, not really happening...at least not yet. I believe it's much more likely that wave-4 is still in motion.


----------



## Triathlete (18 December 2015)

Porper said:


> A couple of things worth considering.
> 
> First of all wave-4 is usually not a zigzag, it's often a flat pattern or a triangle. Wave-2 is normally the "sharp" correction.
> 
> ...





I will take those points on board...

What about the law of alternation ....which states that if a wave 2 unfolds in a sideways movement, instead of the normal zigzag correction, then wave 4 will alternate and unfold in a zigzag corrective pattern.

If wave 4 is still in motion do you see it falling further or just moving sideways??


----------



## Porper (19 December 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I will take those points on board...
> 
> What about the law of alternation ....which states that if a wave 2 unfolds in a sideways movement, instead of the normal zigzag correction, then wave 4 will alternate and unfold in a zigzag corrective pattern.
> 
> If wave 4 is still in motion do you see it falling further or just moving sideways??




Yep, guideline of alternation is a valid point.

However in reality wave-4 hardly ever makes a textbook zigzag in my experience. Wave-2 is shallow which means wave-4 should be something completely different. A triangle or flat fits the bill...to me anyway. The most important aspect for me is the time element. The recent retracement is out of sync with the first correction.

If the triangle is unfolding, price action should be choppy on the way higher. A low should be locked in though with good upside, albeit within a corrective move higher.


----------



## helpme (30 August 2016)

*Why did Commonwealth Bank shut down India operations?*

India is a huge country with lots of potential in future. Why did Commonwealth bank shut down Indian operations?

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...own-india-operations/articleshow/53914526.cms


----------



## qldfrog (31 August 2016)

*Re: Why did Commonwealth Bank shut down India operations?*



helpme said:


> India is a huge country with lots of potential in future. Why did Commonwealth bank shut down Indian operations?
> 
> http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...own-india-operations/articleshow/53914526.cms



Maybe because it has had a lot of potential for the last 200y?


----------



## Value Collector (31 August 2016)

*Re: Why did Commonwealth Bank shut down India operations?*



helpme said:


> India is a huge country with lots of potential in future. Why did Commonwealth bank shut down Indian operations?
> 
> http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...own-india-operations/articleshow/53914526.cms




Maybe the same reason Woolies shut down masters.

Just because its possible to operate a great business in a sector (eg Bunnings), doesn't mean its easy for all who try.

Maybe the bank has decided to focus on another area where they feel they have a bigger competitive advantage.


----------



## Klogg (31 August 2016)

*Re: Why did Commonwealth Bank shut down India operations?*



Value Collector said:


> Maybe the bank has decided to focus on another area where they feel they have a bigger competitive advantage.




Yes! Finally...

Having worked at a bank for over 5 years (I don't anymore), everyone was going on about the 'asian expansion'. Who cares about asia, focus on the market you dominate!


----------



## Value Collector (31 August 2016)

*Re: Why did Commonwealth Bank shut down India operations?*



Klogg said:


> Yes! Finally...
> 
> Having worked at a bank for over 5 years (I don't anymore), everyone was going on about the 'asian expansion'. Who cares about asia, focus on the market you dominate!




I see CBA as being very similar to the US bank Wells Fargo, Wells is probably the best bank in the USA and it focuses on the USA, the other large US banks have tried to invest internationally with limited success, but wells has pretty much stayed focus on the USA and its worked a treat.


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## peter2 (13 September 2016)

Was that an earthquake? One of the pillars holding up the ASX has broken support. 

I'm referring to today's startling news that the *CBA* has closed below a huge support level at $70. 

I'm not going to use classic TA to project a downside target from the descending triangle pattern as it may panic some investors.    Will the yield chasers be able to prop it up by the EOW?


----------



## Porper (13 September 2016)

peter2 said:


> Was that an earthquake? One of the pillars holding up the ASX has broken support.
> 
> I'm referring to today's startling news that the *CBA* has closed below a huge support level at $70.
> 
> ...




Nice looking short setup if you are that way inclined. Minor bullish divergence means I have held back although I wanted to press that button!! Must keep to the trading strategy though. Maybe in a few days.


----------



## peter2 (13 September 2016)

Know how you feel. 
If CBA falls to where it could based on classic TA then the ASX must fall significantly also. 

The other banks are looking much better. The best one seems to be ANZ at the moment. I'd be more concerned about the ASX as a whole if all banks where teetering on the edge of support at the same time.


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## Triathlete (13 September 2016)

If CBA closes below $69.12 then a short down to $63.00 could be on the cards....


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## notting (15 September 2016)

Looks like Goldman's are playing you guys.
In two days after it's fake break down it's gone from 6940 to 7160 about a 3.05% reversal on good volume.



> Well, not exactly no-one. Goldman Sachs Tim Toohey reckons the speech RBA assistant governor Chris Kent delivered on Tuesday amounts to an explicit shift to a neutral policy stance.
> Christopher Kent's (of the RBA) key remark was to flag "the abatement of those two substantial headwinds" and highlight that this "would be a marked change from recent years".




That's good for the financials



> Goldman and Macquarie upgrade CBA, saying underperformance has gone too far




That's good for sentiment on financials


----------



## Triathlete (16 September 2016)

notting said:


> *Looks like Goldman's are playing you guys*.
> *In two days after it's fake break down *it's gone from 6940 to 7160 about a 3.05% reversal on good volume.
> 
> 
> ...




*What fake break down????...*all it did was move closer to the 50% level of a monthly chart of the range between Sept 2011 to March 2015.That is why I had mentioned $69.12 as an important level .....this is basic TA.....


----------



## ggkfc (16 September 2016)

No analysis buy i think a correction is about to happen over the next few months, with a good entry point around 60


----------



## Triathlete (16 September 2016)

ggkfc said:


> No analysis *but i think a correction is about to happen *over the next few months, with a good entry point around 60




*Trade on what you see not what you think*....is my motto and has served me well..


----------



## notting (16 September 2016)

Triathlete said:


> *What fake break down????...*all it did was move closer to the 50% level of a monthly chart of the range between Sept 2011 to March 2015.That is why I had mentioned $69.12 as an important level .....this is basic TA.....




Not surprisingly it might surprise you the majority of people who play the market on a daily basis tend to base their moves, primarily on daily charts.  Where CBA broke a strong support of $70 which also gave it a rolling year low and year low which statistically indicates it has a higher probability of going even lower.
That would be the thus far 'fake break down,' not yet out of the picture.

For a shorter, it's still looking juicy when this little run up looks to turn for a low risk entry, especially only being a month past its ex and running on Muppet tales.

Comprende? :freak3:


----------



## Triathlete (16 September 2016)

notting said:


> Not surprisingly it might surprise you the majority of people who play the market on a daily basis tend to base their moves, primarily on daily charts.  Where CBA broke a strong support of $70 which also gave it a rolling year low and year low which statistically indicates it has a higher probability of going even lower.
> That would be the thus far 'fake break down,' not yet out of the picture.
> 
> *For a shorter, it's still looking juicy *when this little run up looks to turn for a low risk entry, especially only being a month past its ex and running on Muppet tales.
> ...




So at what price would you consider a short on CBA which is not a fake breakdown..???


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 September 2016)

I going to short if it gets back up to 78-80, Can you do it with betting agencies?


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## notting (16 September 2016)

Triathlete said:


> So at what price would you consider a short on CBA which is not a fake breakdown..???




When it breaks the recent low again it would confirm the break.
But so far it's a fake and has reinforced support.


----------



## Triathlete (17 September 2016)

notting said:


> When it breaks the recent low again it would confirm the break.
> But so far it's a fake and has reinforced support.




Thanks.....So that would make it $69.22 using the daily chart.

What I always like to do is bring across any strong levels from the higher time frames (monthly and weekly) and put them on the daily chart as it gives me a better understanding as if a price is likely to hold or not that is why I had mentioned that I would not look at any short until it closes below $69.12. I was actually expecting the bounce and so my CFD long Trade triggered at $71.40, looking for run up now towards $78.....Seems to be in a trading range of $70 - $79 only time will tell though...


----------



## ukulele (17 September 2016)

if you were a range trader over the past few months to a year would have been quite good. Seems everyone loves buying around the 70 value.


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## Ann (19 September 2016)

Not sure a short would be the safest bet here. 

I have drawn a past successful swing trade which resolved right to the penny and another potential one just about to go. It looks like CBA will resolve at around $100 if there is an outward breakup.


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## Triathlete (20 September 2016)

Ann said:


> Not sure a short would be the safest bet here.
> 
> I have drawn a past successful swing trade which resolved right to the penny and another potential one just about to go. *It looks like CBA will resolve at around $100 if there is an outward breakup.*




I hope you are correct, this will also give us our last wave 5 (that I have been waiting for) so would also look at a price of between $96 and $123.

The only thing is I do not know how it will get there in the current environment it is not showing any forecasted EPS growth going forward only ROE of 21%...Time will tell...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (20 September 2016)

Its got no hope of getting anywhere near $100 in the next 1-5yrs, the APRA/Basel regulation has severely impacted bank shares with a further decision still to be finalised on capital requirements


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## tech/a (20 September 2016)

CBA is in Distribution

At best will range to the current high
Will not make new highs.
Likely to test lows.


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## Ann (20 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> CBA is in Distribution
> 
> At best will range to the current high
> Will not make new highs.
> Likely to test lows.




Why tech/a? Got a chart to substantiate your opinion? You may well be right.

I am putting up the same chart but with a close up view plus the daily MACD. I use a few indicators to confirm my opinion about a chart's direction. These are daily indicators set under a weekly chart so there is going to be a shorter time frame for the indicator's resolution. My other daily indicators are in step with the MACD.

I should add this section of the chart is not drawn absolutely precisely as I would like it as it was supposed to be just a rough, quick opinion for yesterday on a 15 year chart. Re-drawing it won't really alter any of the outcomes, it just looks sloppy!


----------



## tech/a (21 September 2016)

*An alternate analysis*

*CLICK TO EXPAND*



	

		
			
		

		
	
.


----------



## Ann (22 September 2016)

You may be right tech/a. In a bull market the Descending Triangle is likely to break upward, just at the moment the DOW is into its third touch into a long term bearish Rising Wedge coming from November 2015. If the DOW turns bearish which I must admit looks fairly likely now that I look at it closely, then your Descending Triangle on CBA may well offer some nice shorting!

I will try to put up a chart somewhere more appropriate for the DOW a bit later.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (22 September 2016)

Hi tech/a,

That second chart you have there is pretty interesting!

I like the idea of looking for charts where a large percentage of all closes in the last year were in a X% range.


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2016)

Ann/Investa

I'm *not a great lover of larger patterns*.
In this case while it does form a triangle 
It is in an up trend and although CBA is
now in a down trend the pattern is the 
entire down move.

In my view this is *highly likely to range *and destroy the pattern 
and any analysis attached to it.
Smaller patterns tend to be more likely to conform to accepted
behaviour.

*The closes in a particular range* or zone work very well for
accessing moves in futures where you get wide range swing bars
over a period of accumulation or distribution yet close within a 
tight tick range. You see this often in smaller timeframe charts.
Ill find a relevant example at sometime if interested and post it.


----------



## Ann (25 September 2016)

Ann said:


> You may be right tech/a. In a bull market the Descending Triangle is likely to break upward, just at the moment the DOW is into its third touch into a long term bearish Rising Wedge coming from November 2015. If the DOW turns bearish which I must admit looks fairly likely now that I look at it closely, then your Descending Triangle on CBA may well offer some nice shorting!
> 
> I will try to put up a chart somewhere more appropriate for the DOW a bit later.




OK, I have been doing a very close analysis using two swing trade calculations of the 12 year daily chart of the DOW and have come to the conclusion in my opinion it is going to rise, the rising wedge may not be bearish on this occasion and is headed for around 20,020 by my current calculations.

If the DOW does rise it is likely to have a buoyant effect on CBA and our market in general, therefore being short may turn out to be a wealth hazard! 

Here is a link to the DOW chart to which I refer:- https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8840&p=920108&viewfull=1#post920108

Shortly I will  put up another chart for CBA, the last was sloppy and done without proper thought and there will be differences.


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## Ann (25 September 2016)

New, replacement chart for the earlier one, which was very poorly drawn. This time more careful swing trade drawings make me come to the conclusion of a potential outcome and re-visit of $96. There may be initial weakness on the way maybe down to $65 as there is a short term falling support/trendline. It appears there could be a return  to higher levels around late January or early February 2017 with the price breaking above the descending triangle.

In other words folks, I reckon it will go up early in the New Year! Watch the DOW!


----------



## McLovin (7 August 2017)

skc said:
			
		

> I think the impact will be in the order of <$2B fine (<1.5% in market cap), and perhaps one-off costs of $2-300m to upgrade systems/training/ATM machine etc. If you want throw in extra $50m per year in additional costs... you still can't find more than 3% impact on the company in terms of market cap. Friday's fall was more than enough.




I don't think it will come anywhere near $2b. I'd be surprised if it's more than $50m. The media is frothing about the 53,000 transactions, but they were just missed transactions that should have been flagged, 99.9% of them would have been legitimate. It's not as though 53,000 instances of money laundering were missed.

It's possible there's more to it, but imo, on face value it doesn't seem that bad.


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2017)

McLovin said:


> It's possible there's more to it, but imo, on face value it doesn't seem that bad.



I do not think it is but that is a very populist way of pinning big bad banks so that you can levy extra taxes on them as per SA, AND another way to show cash as the enemy
so limit cash deposit withdrawal, tighten cash until gone and when sh*t happens (not if) make sure than all accounts can be locked and seized as per Cyprus/Greece, etc


----------



## greggles (14 May 2018)

Commonwealth Bank approaching long term support at $70. Will it consolidate here or break through and head lower?


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## McLovin (4 June 2018)

McLovin said:


> I don't think it will come anywhere near $2b. I'd be surprised if it's more than $50m.




LOL. Got that wrong!

Must be a bit of blowback because of the RC into banking, ANZ acting as a cartel and WBC rigging interest rates.


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## McCoy Pauley (4 June 2018)

Reported that the expected fine would be $1 billion so there was a jump in the share price when the fine was announced as being $700 million. 

I hold.


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## mcgrath111 (5 July 2018)

Seems to have found some support recently. Call me what you want, but I think CBA is holding some value for a short / mid term hold.

Don't quote me in 2 months when it's trading at 30$


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## bigdog (6 February 2019)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (ASX: CBA) half-year results release this morning. CBA reported a 6% drop in half-year profit to $4.6 billion and 1.7% increase in cash profit to marginally miss estimates in a flat result for the bank.


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## PZ99 (6 February 2019)

Thanks Bigdog. No cut to the divvy...



Spoiler


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## Ann (20 March 2019)

CBA originally listed on Thursday September 12th 1991 and the initial price was $5.37 today they closed at $70.79


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## Toyota Lexcen (12 April 2019)

Good move for CEO to cut 1 in 4 jobs (roughly 10,000) and get bank moving again.


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## Ann (13 April 2019)

First MYR cut staff, then BHP and now it is CBA. Let's see if these companies are rewarded with a higher stock price.

*Commonwealth Bank Mulls Plan to Cut 10,000 Jobs, Paper Says*
_
Commonwealth Bank of Australia is working on a plan to cut more than 10,000 jobs and about A$2 billion ($1.4 billion) of costs, the Australian newspaper reported, without saying where it got the information.

The nation’s largest lender is said to be considering closing as many as 300 of its almost 1,000 branches, the paper said. A reduction of 25 percent of its workforce could see 10,000-12,000 jobs go in coming years, the report said. More..._


----------



## qldfrog (14 April 2019)

More baristas again?
I am sad for the individuals involved
And only so many new jobs created by the online move, most in Bangalore


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2019)

qldfrog said:


> More baristas again?
> I am sad for the individuals involved
> And only so many new jobs created by the online move, most in Bangalore




I think if a company doesn’t need workers it’s healthy to let them go.

Other wise we may as well ban bulldozers, and force companies to employ hoards of people with shovels instead.

————-
There are a lot better things to do in life than work 9-5 for 5 days a week for 45 years.

I am in favor of building an economy that is 100% automated, and no one needs to work.

We are in early stages of course, but things like this need to happen to get to the final outcome.


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## sptrawler (14 April 2019)

The Royal Commission would have caused a lot of processes and functions to be tested, internal audits of the processes would have highlighted problems with procedures and reporting functions, outcomes aren't always what people expect.
It obviously wont be business as usual, probably the other banks will follow suite, they all obviously had problems with reporting and accountability procedures, maybe they all became too big to manage?


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## sptrawler (14 April 2019)

Ann said:


> First MYR cut staff, then BHP and now it is CBA. Let's see if these companies are rewarded with a higher stock price.
> _._



On the subject of BHP, all the major mining companies are investing heavily, in autonomous operations.


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## rederob (14 April 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The Royal Commission would have caused a lot of processes and functions to be tested, internal audits of the processes would have highlighted problems with procedures and reporting functions, outcomes aren't always what people expect.



I continue to hold CBA.
However, there was a culture of profit and managers aspired to make greater profits and receive higher performance bonuses.
The internal procedures were not such an issue that I am aware.  The fact is that the Commission was able to use standard reporting information to identify where customers were being ripped off.
Any suggestion that banks were not aware of what they were doing is, imho, a long way from reality.
Instead the banks liberally pressured politicians to stymie a Royal Commission knowing full well they were culpable.
They got caught.
The government of the day took credit.
Check Hansard to see how many times they rejected calls for the Commission.

Back to CBA, they will take a few hits to their bottom line, but they only need to ratchet customer costs by fractions of a percent to offset these.  Even without an imputation credit it delivers a rate of return at the top end of those in the ASX200.


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## sptrawler (14 April 2019)

rederob said:


> I continue to hold CBA.
> However, there was a culture of profit and managers aspired to make greater profits and receive higher performance bonuses.
> The internal procedures were not such an issue that I am aware.  The fact is that the Commission was able to use standard reporting information to identify where customers were being ripped off.
> Any suggestion that banks were not aware of what they were doing is, imho, a long way from reality.
> ...



What I was alluding to was, long lines and chains of command and reporting, are very difficult to manage especially on a large scale.
One just has to look at RCR, from what I read they went belly up, due to faulty project management procedures at a remote contract site.
I have carried out project management, over multiple sites concurrently, it is a nightmare to know exactly what is going on, at the macro level.
With a major bank covering the continent as well as international exposure, delegation would be standard practice, but as is known you can delegate responsibility but not accountability.
I am sure that post the Royal Commission, management will be much more aware of their responsibilities.
I wasn't making a point one way or another, just saying complacency works its way into every system. I would think the Commission, has certainly given boards a well deserved reminder, of why they are paid so much.
I loved your last comment, all the bank has to do is screw the customer. lol priceless.


----------



## bigdog (13 May 2019)

Motley reported today
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/05/13/...r-it-reported-a-28-crash-in-quarterly-profit/

*Is the CBA dividend safe after it reported a 28% crash in quarterly profit?*
Brendon Lau | May 13, 2019 

The *Commonwealth Bank of Australia* (ASX: CBA) share price will be in focus today as our largest ASX-listed bank released its quarterly update that will give shareholders a few things to worry about.

The CBA share price has been outperforming the market over the past month as we headed into the bank reporting season with a gain of 4.4% when the *S&P/ASX 200* (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) index inched up 1%.

*CBA big impairment and profit hit*
CBA took a big profit hit in 3QFY19 as it made a $714 million provision to compensate aggrieved customers and that meant its cash profit for the period crashed 28% compared to the average of the first two quarters of the financial year. Even if one-off costs were excluded, underlying cash profit is still down a considerable 9%.

Perhaps analysts won’t be too fazed by the news as consensus underlying earnings per share forecast for FY19 is tipped to drop around 8% from the previous year.

The big new provision takes the total amount CBA has set aside for wronging customers to over $2 billion. This is the fallout from the Hayne Royal Commission, which exposed unethical and sometimes illegal activities by our largest financial institutions.

*Loan book still growing*
The bank’s chief executive Matt Comyn is also putting on a brave face as he touted CBA’s “sound business fundamentals” and said “momentum [has been] maintained in a challenging operating environment”.

After all, CBA has managed to lift the number of home loans its written by 2.5% in the quarter, which implies it’s holding on to its market leading position. The volume of new business loans also increased by 2.3% and household deposits were up 2.8%.

However, no word on whether the size of more mortgages is shrinking in light of tighter lending conditions and consumer arrears (past 90 days) are ticking up, although its coming from a low base and credit quality still looks good for the bank – at least for now.

*Are CBA’s dividend safe?*
Investors may also be concerned to see the bank’s capital adequacy ratio fall in the period. The Common Equity Tier-1 (CET1) ratio dipped to 10.3% from 10.8% after the interim dividend payment to shareholders were deducted.

This may prompt some bank bears to think that CBA dividends can’t be banked on. So far, only NAB has cut dividends and its share price has reacted positively to the news – a fact that won’t be lost on its rivals and may prompt some boards to follow.

What’s clear from the results is that the big banks need a rate cut or two from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as badly as stretched consumers.

The probability of rate cuts is high and it’s more a question of “when”, not “if”. This makes me think that bank stocks may have found their footing even though the operating environment is likely to stay hostile until 2020.


----------



## barney (21 August 2019)

I personally watch Specs mainly … but given most Aussie Investors would likely have CBA on the top of their watch list, I figure this thread may as well be bumped with a bit of recent news.

Some Substantial shareholder announcements and a chart showing some recent weakness … although still a lot higher than @bigdog 's post back in May


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 February 2020)

CBA has made an investment with BNPL group from abroad. 

Can’t see this going well, APT really have a strangle hold on the sector.


----------



## bonox (10 February 2020)

A potential difference is that Klarna will probably work on low margin high volume on any purchase (ie not retailer dependent) where Afterpay and ilk are the opposite and also charge (specific) retailers much higher fees. Could potentially be driven more from the retailer side than by customers.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 February 2020)

$90 a share. not bad for a dinosaur bank under siege from
1. royal commission, 
2. declining growth, and
3. fintech. 

(2 out of the three essentially toothless <you guess which!>)


----------



## Knobby22 (15 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> $90 a share. not bad for a dinosaur bank under siege from
> 1. royal commission,
> 2. declining growth, and
> 3. fintech.
> ...



Nearly back to the price it was in 2015!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Nearly back to the price it was in 2015!



Whatever. I bought in at the Float in 1991. $5.40 a share. (and DRPs until 1997, then participation in occasional SPP or rights). 

Otherwise, just luvin' the dividends. The question should be; what are you buying now?


----------



## Knobby22 (15 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Whatever. I bought in at the Float in 1991. $5.40 a share. (and DRPs until 1997, then participation in occasional SPP or rights).
> 
> Otherwise, just luvin' the dividends. The question should be; what are you buying now?



I bought at that float too. No longer own. Sold at $80 To help buy new house.
It has been a great company, can it go back to greatness? That is another question. 

Still as you suggest considering the original capital been a big winner.

Should also say, the  dividends are great in this low interest rate environment.


----------



## sptrawler (15 February 2020)

It is hard to find another sector, that is so linked to our population.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It is hard to find another sector, that is so linked to our population.



And the economy. Which sneezed (Covid-19)


> Financials have been the biggest weight on the local market this week, as investors weigh the impact of further cuts on bank margins.
> 
> The big four were quick to pass on the full cut to their customers, but the threat to their dividends have prompted heavy selling.





> In the days since the RBA cut, the financials index is lower by 6.1 per cent, led by a 7.1pc decline in CBA


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2020)

I am predicting CBA will fall.

To $42

Or $24

A 10 year monthly chart shows lines of support and resistance at the $60 and $45 mark. 

Breaking below the $60 mark is a given on price action this month and supported by the RSI.

In uncertain times it may bob below $45, and there is much clear air below that. 

I would be reading weekly rather than daily charts and monthly as one would a weekly.

It is too volatile a situation to be predicting daily unless one is a skilled day trader. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

well, I suppose in late2007/08/early09 it did a 50+% retracement ($61 to $27 at extremities) but was back to $55 before 2010. Raised capital March 09

But what others will take from this is how dividends flowed; no 50% retracement there. (1.07, 1.47 in 2007, 1.13 & 1.53 ('08), 1.13, 1.15 (09), & by Apr '10, 1.20)


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

If CBA goes below $30, you can put me down for some.
I am wondering what people are basing the really big falls on, other than the media hype? The only people that are getting sick in large numbers, are old or infirm, working age people aren't getting overly sick from reports.
So other than the disruption caused by businesses, maybe closing short term, what is going to cause the massive disruption to the financial sector?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If CBA goes below $30, you can put me down for some.
> I am wondering what people are basing the really big falls on, other than the media hype? The only people that are getting sick in large numbers, are old or infirm, working age people aren't getting overly sick from reports.
> So other than the disruption caused by businesses, maybe closing short term, what is going to cause the massive disruption to the financial sector?



In a word fear.

In four words the madness of crowds.

I agree with your comments but fear is about, restaurants are empty, people are not travelling, big bank loans owing to banks will rank after the ATO in bankruptcy. Italy has placed a halt on mortgage repayments. That would be attractive to our government. Less cash flow for banks. The market falls, insurance, "wealth producing" listed companies and again banks will suffer. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If CBA goes below $30, you can put me down for some.
> I am wondering what people are basing the really big falls on, other than the media hype? The only people that are getting sick in large numbers, are old or infirm, working age people aren't getting overly sick from reports.
> So other than the disruption caused by businesses, maybe closing short term, what is going to cause the massive disruption to the financial sector?



When bubble burst, there is no rational thinking, same as when these bubbles expand
FOMO is replaced by fear, and this is enough to seize the money flow, cascading collapses etc etc


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> When bubble burst, there is no rational thinking, same as when these bubbles expand
> FOMO is replaced by fear, and this is enough to seize the money flow, cascading collapses etc etc



That is exactly when investors make most of their money.
Last panic attack, CSL hit $27, CBA $26, WES $12, BHP $4
If we didn't have these incidents, the market would just meander along at 4%. Booms and busts are where the real money is made and lost.
Also it is the reason most people miss the boom, the bust is too recent a memory.


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is exactly when investors make most of their money.



But not at the pop of the bubble, but at the burst which could take years
Or even virus crash and slow deflatng of the Bubble after a fake rebound in 9 to 12 months
Time will tell.
For CBA, issues are low rates, competition from pure internet banks and RE valuations .
Immigration cuts should be very negative too


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## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But not at the pop of the bubble, but at the burst which could take years
> Or even virus crash and slow deflatng of the Bubble after a fake rebound in 9 to 12 months
> Time will tell.
> For CBA, issues are low rates, competition from pure internet banks and RE valuations .
> Immigration cuts should be very negative too



Well put your money in a CBA term deposit at 1.5% and sleep easy.


----------



## qldfrog (11 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well put your money in a CBA term deposit at 1.5% and sleep easy.



Cba term deposit..hum...but gov bonds yes.. 
And then i remove the fomo fear and greed via systems who capture the market psychology indirectly via trends along different time scale
So far so good


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## HelloU (12 March 2020)

Auction:
That was about 20% of todays volume in the auction that was just thrown at any buyer (the auction trade price was nearly $1 below the 4pm close - which itself was near the days low)


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## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

yes indeed. Intraday for CBA:


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## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

HelloU said:


> Auction:
> That was about 20% of todays volume in the auction that was just thrown at any buyer (the auction trade price was nearly $1 below the 4pm close - which itself was near the days low)



post 4pm auction
I am unfamiliar: who buy sell then? I can not pass order as retail after 4pm
 it is then handled the following day...


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## tinhat (13 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> post 4pm auction
> I am unfamiliar: who buy sell then? I can not pass order as retail after 4pm
> it is then handled the following day...



Seriously, you watch CBA? Perhaps kidney stones. I 'haven't seen a doctor for about seven years. I doubt now is the right time.


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## HelloU (13 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> post 4pm auction
> I am unfamiliar: who buy sell then? I can not pass order as retail after 4pm
> it is then handled the following day...



??, very few on-line brokers do not let you join the auction action. Best with a live data platform especially if the stock is not so liquid and usually live platforms will give a changing expected auction price as the queues change.

Whatever gets matched in the auction when the hammer falls do so at the same price, no matter what the bid or offer was (until the match process is exhausted - so not every buy or sell order will be filled).


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## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

tinhat said:


> Seriously, you watch CBA? Perhaps kidney stones. I 'haven't seen a doctor for about seven years. I doubt now is the right time.



@tinhat, it is high time you look for professional help for your own sake


----------



## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

HelloU said:


> ??, very few on-line brokers do not let you join the auction action. Best with a live data platform especially if the stock is not so liquid and usually live platforms will give a changing expected auction price as the queues change.
> 
> Whatever gets matched in the auction when the hammer falls do so at the same price, no matter what the bid or offer was (until the match process is exhausted - so not every buy or sell order will be filled).



Thanks
,so we are talking a reconciliation process happening post closure for existing pending order?,not any off market action?
How can we have so much volume then? Or is there a way to join it in the same way i can participate at the open auction determining the open price?but this time for the close price.
Most of my actions are usually done on the open.i will google this


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## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

Ok for the details
*Pre CSPA*
Between 4:00 pm and 4:10 pm, Sydney time, the market is placed in Pre-CSPA. Trading stops and brokers enter, change and cancel orders in preparation for the market closing.

*Closing Single Price Auction*
The Closing Single Price Auction takes place between 4:10* pm and 4:12 pm, Sydney time.

ASX Trade calculates closing prices during this phase.

*Random + 60 secs

*Adjust*
The Adjust takes place from 4.12 pm to 4:42 pm, Sydney time. During this phase:


Brokers may ‘tidy up’ their orders by cancelling unwanted orders, amending orders, etc.
New orders cannot be entered and ASX Trade does not execute trades.
Brokers wishing to trade contact each other by telephone. ASX Market Rules ensure that trading takes place in an orderly fashion.
Trading during the Adjust phase is referred to as overnight trading.

*Adjust ON*
This state is the same as the ADJUST session state.


----------



## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

@HelloU thanks for raising the issue, knowing more now


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## Country Lad (13 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> *Adjust*
> 
> The Adjust takes place from 4.12 pm to 4:42 pm, Sydney time. During this phase:
> ·  Brokers wishing to trade contact each other by telephone. ASX Market Rules ensure that trading takes place in an orderly fashion.




This was the advantage of having a good relationship with a full service broker in years gone by when I was heavily trading. A discussion with him about the day and any significant events after close on a number of occasions would lead to a decision to buy or sell something during the adjust. He could always find another willing to do a deal or would be contacted by another broker for a trade at a more attractive price than the close.


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## JTLP (13 March 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am predicting CBA will fall.
> 
> To $42
> 
> ...




A fall to $40 would be another 40%ish? CBA is basically a barometer for the ASX so you’re saying the market could go down to 3000? That’d be bloody grim and I can’t see it happening...


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## Cam019 (20 March 2020)

Interesting to see how CBA acts around this level. Could offer up some price support here. See charts below.






Bullish divergence shown below on the RSI. Found a little bit of price support here also. Coming back out of well oversold territory.






Check out the volume going through the last 10 trading days. Very interesting.


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## sptrawler (20 March 2020)

JTLP said:


> A fall to $40 would be another 40%ish? CBA is basically a barometer for the ASX so you’re saying the market could go down to 3000? That’d be bloody grim and I can’t see it happening...



Why do you put a value on CBA of $60, when WBC, NAB are $15, just wondering.
Is it on their book value, EPS, future earnings or sentimental/brand value?


----------



## JTLP (21 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Why do you put a value on CBA of $60, when WBC, NAB are $15, just wondering.
> Is it on their book value, EPS, future earnings or sentimental/brand value?




Probably a mix of sentiment / brand value. Without looking at the financials they’re far and away Australia’s most advanced / best bank (from the incumbents). No other players hold a candle to them. 

It’s also why I say they are the barometer. It’s such a staple in the majority of super funds / LICs that if you saw a 40% drop in value, I honestly think you’d see that reflected in the overall market.


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## MrChow (21 March 2020)

The last time there was a recession in 1991 CBA bad debts rose to 1.5%.

CBA currently have about a $900B loan book and make about $8B in NPAT.

So their threshold for bad debts to loans maxes out at 1% before they become loss making.

If there is an elongated recession (rather than just the virus coming and going)  I'd also think $40 as a fair level with a P/B of 1 and Trailing PE of 8.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 July 2020)

CBA online investing arm, *Commsec,* is capturing growth during a period of extreme volatility in global sharemarkets, with *400,000 new accounts* established on the platform over the last year.

*CommSec Pocket,* a micro investing app launched a year ago that allows customers to invest sums as low as $50 in ETFs, saw a rise in activity, with $180 million invested by 100,000 users since launching last year.


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## Dona Ferentes (24 November 2020)

CBA back above $80, so it is back to where it was a year ago. ... Shares put on 10% in the last week, with usual attributions
- Vaccine hopes
- Economy strengthening
- Rotation from growth to value
- CBA boss Matt Comyn said the housing market is no longer a risk to the post-COVID economy and expects property prices will rise 5 per cent next year 
-  Quarterly came out on 11.11; CBA is growing its lending to home buyers and business owners at twice the system average (despite quarterly profit falling 16 per cent).


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## Cam019 (9 April 2021)

CBA looking interesting here.

Price action tightening up nicely. Volatility is all but dead. Stronger than the XAO over the prior 6 month period. Other big 3 banks looking strong too, along with the whole ASX200 banks sector (XBK) as a matter of fact.


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## Boggo (10 April 2021)

Expected hesitation in the "typical" area should end soon.
Another target area of around $100 if it breaks upwards from here. Just my . 

(click to expand)


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## Sharkman (10 April 2021)

i don't know that volatility is "all but dead" yet, at least from an options POV. i started selling covered calls over this back in Nov after the initial heavy rally, the 1m ATM was going at an IV of around 20 back then. had to roll up & out a couple of times at expiry since then, but could always do so at credit due to the moderately elevated vols.

it has eased back a bit since then, the call contracts i sold last week (near mid) were at an IV of around 16, but i still don't think that's fully mean reverted just yet. from memory, in "normal" times CBA 1m ATM typically trades at around 12-13 IV. if the observed daily variance is 1%, that's sqrt(252) = 15.87 annualised, so it seems the MMs are expecting the recent RV to hold steady for the near future.


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## Value Collector (10 April 2021)

Sharkman said:


> i don't know that volatility is "all but dead" yet, at least from an options POV. i started selling covered calls over this back in Nov after the initial heavy rally, the 1m ATM was going at an IV of around 20 back then. had to roll up & out a couple of times at expiry since then, but could always do so at credit due to the moderately elevated vols.




I have been doing the equal but opposite thing for about 10 years with CBA selling Puts, I love that the market mis-prices risk by constantly confusing it with volatility.


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## Boggo (18 May 2021)

Follow up from here -




__





						CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia
					

The last time there was a recession in 1991 CBA bad debts rose to 1.5%.  CBA currently have about a $900B loan book and make about $8B in NPAT.  So their threshold for bad debts to loans maxes out at 1% before they become loss making.  If there is an elongated recession (rather than just the...




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				




It's arrived in the next area of potential hesitation at Max Wave.C.

Max.C is also Typical W.3 (1.62 x W.1 or A) so where to from here.
Max W.3 is around $123.00 (2.62 of W.1).

Watch and wait I guess.

(click to expand)


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## Gunnerguy (19 May 2021)

Boggo said:


> Follow up from here -
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I’m glad I found this forum. I love the comments about the options.
As others may have read my posts with regards starting to trade in options (options forum) , CBA is one of the 3 or 4 shares on my short list to start trading options in.
Any comments, ideas or suggestions would be great.
Thanks
Gunnerguy.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 May 2021)

and $100 a share


_Not that this means anything, really_

_probably going to kiss it a few times, with sellers lining up._


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## Boggo (26 May 2021)

Follow up from previous posts.
Not very often that the close coincides precisely with a target level.

Is a continuation to the next level a possibility now that it has reached Max W.C and a Max W.3 is the next target ?

(click to expand)


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## sptrawler (26 May 2021)

Absolutely amazing, guess there is a bit of magic attached to CBA, as opposed to the other three.


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## Value Collector (27 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Absolutely amazing, guess there is a bit of magic attached to CBA, as opposed to the other three.



CBA was at $95 back in 2015, I think it’s amazing it’s taken this long to recover, but I guess that’s what a royal commission and pandemic will do hahaha.


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## striek (28 May 2021)

Its finally closed above $100 a share. Nice little run up this afternoon and a good gap in the closing auction to maintain momentum.

Bought a couple 99 calls (Exp 3/6) yesterday and sold today for a tidy profit. Having regrets..


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## Gunnerguy (28 May 2021)

striek said:


> Its finally closed above $100 a share. Nice little run up this afternoon and a good gap in the closing auction to maintain momentum.
> 
> Bought a couple 99 calls (Exp 3/6) yesterday and sold today for a tidy profit. Having regrets..



I’m planning to initiate my options trading strategy in the next couple of weeks. Having spent over 4 weeks reading and learning and setting up IBKR I’m almost there. CBA is amongst my candidates to start trading options. I will be watching CBA daily from then on.
GG


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## Gunnerguy (3 July 2021)

Closed out my second trade yesterday.

Trade 3. 21st. June.
STO 2 contracts CBA Jul15 $102 Call. PM +$0.58, Delta 0.232. PM Recieved +$114.90. Share price was at $98.44 (-3.62% below call price) at the time of STO.

Trade 4. 1st. July. Closed the contract.
BTC 2 contract CBA Jul15 $102 Call. PM -$0.31. PM Paid -$63.10. Share price was at $98.81 at the time of BTC.

Again, I could have let it run longer but I wanted to close the loop and take my profit.

Net gain was $51.80.

Gunnerguy


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## Gunnerguy (3 July 2021)

Any idea what the dividend may be ?

Gunnerguy


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## Dona Ferentes (3 July 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> Any idea what the dividend may be ?



more than $2, probably well north.



*Interim*1.500100.00%16/02/202130/03/2021*Final*0.980100.00%19/08/202030/09/2020*Interim*2.000100.00%19/02/202031/03/2020*Final*2.310100.00%14/08/201926/09/2019*Interim*2.000100.00%13/02/201928/03/2019*Final*2.310100.00%15/08/201828/09/2018*Interim*2.000100.00%14/02/201828/03/2018*Final*2.300100.00%16/08/201729/09/2017*Interim*1.990100.00%22/02/201704/04/2017*Final*2.220100.00%17/08/201629/09/2016*Interim*1.980100.00%16/02/201631/03/2016


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## divs4ever (24 July 2021)

CBA’s Gambit to Become More Than Just a Bank — Mobile Banking​








						CBA's Gambit to Become More Than Just a Bank — Mobile Banking
					

The digital and mobile banking revolution is now threatening this status quo. The fintech innovators are aiming to kill off the big banks as we know it via a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ approach...



					www.moneymorning.com.au
				




 DYOR

 my exposure to CBA is via various LICs and ETFs


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## dyna (9 October 2021)

Total demand for the CBA $6 Billion buy-back came in at $24 Billion, resulting in an 80% scale back. Considering the fierce scale-back , it was hardly worth the bother for an SMSF and top tax rate investors would not have received much of a premium ( 1-2 % above the S.P. ) but retirees and nil tax payers scooped up almost $ 30 on the f.f. dividend alone and no C.G. tax liability on the capital component of the return ($ 21 ).


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## Sean K (3 December 2021)

I was thinking $90 was going to be where the sp might have hit before a bounce, but maybe it's already done?


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## Sean K (17 December 2021)

I was being greedy waiting for $90. Dammit.


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## Sean K (25 January 2022)

So, I guess I didn't need to be greedy, the longer term support line around $90 ish might be coming into play.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> So, I guess I didn't need to be greedy, the longer term support line around $90 ish might be coming into play.
> 
> View attachment 136505



That would complete W2 1-2-3 of the EW Pattern.

gg


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## CityIndex (7 February 2022)

Now that the RBA meeting is behind us, 1H2022 earnings season will likely be the key driver of market direction over the mid-term, which gets into full swing this week with Commonwealth Bank reporting on Wednesday.

The last 6 months have included strict delta-wave lockdowns, and self-induced isolation due to the Omicron surge. Therefore, this round of financial reports will be an important reflection into how these factors impacted Australian businesses. Analysts are estimating CommBank’s FY2022 first-half earnings in the region of $4.5b.

$CBA is currently trading near support around $92, and a depending on the results, could be at risk of a downside breakout, or a bounce to help start another leg higher. However, it will also be interesting to see if it can help set the tone for the rest of earnings reports, and provide an insight as to whether we’ll see the ASX200 add to last week’s gains, or if January’s volatility is likely to continue throughout February.

All trading carries risk, but it’s definitely worth adding $CBA to the watchlist for the week and keeping an eye on how it impacts the ASX200.


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## divs4ever (9 February 2022)

Net profit after tax $4,741m $4,746m
Statutory NPAT Cash NPAT ▲ 26% on 1H21 ▲ 23% on 1H21
NPAT was supported by strong business outcomes, reduced remediation costs and lower loan loss provisions due to an improved economic outlook but impacted by lower margins

Dividend $1.75 Per share, fully franked ▲ 17% on 1H21
The interim dividend was $1.75 per share, fully franked. This represents a normalised cash payout ratio of ~70%, in line with the Board’s interim target payout ratio normalised for long run loan loss rates.

Net interest margin 1.92% ▼ 17bpts on 2H21
 ▼ 14bpts on 1H21 
▼ 9bpts excl. liquids on 2H21 
▼ 5bpts excl. liquids on 1H21 
Excluding the impact from increased lower yielding liquid assets, the Bank’s net interest margin (NIM) decreased 5bpts due to increased switching to lower margin fixed home loans, the impact of the rising swap rates due to market expectations of higher interest rates, and continued pressure from home loan competition. 

 DYOR

 my exposure to CBA is via various LICs and ETFs

 after the market reaction to the SUN  report yesterday  , this could do anything


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## Sean K (9 February 2022)

My Dad's going to be happy today. He got a few in the IPO and hasn't sold any yet.


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## qldfrog (9 February 2022)

I expect the usual exuberant Oz market going up at least till midday, after when overseas traders and bots strat running, might lose a bit of initial upside..viewing from far, do not own


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## CityIndex (9 February 2022)

CommBank’ stock is up close to 5% in early trade, in-line with its 5% beat on 1H profit estimate.

$CBA formed a double bottom near support at $92, and is now testing the key $99 resistance. Closing above this level could allow it to test a confluence of resistance around its 200-day MA and the downward slopping trendline coming from its November highs, opening possibility for a larger breakout.

However, the stock has already been testing support at its 50-day EMA today, and could be at risk of closing below if traders who accumulated shares around the $92 support look to take profits around this key level. If $CBA is rejected at around the current levels, it might end up making another leg lower back towards support.

All trading carries risk, but it could be worthwhile keeping CommBank on the watchlist for now.


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## peter2 (28 February 2022)

*CBA* is back at it's recent $92 support level. The series of lower highs portends lower prices. I wouldn't expect much lower though as the $90 level should provide more support as well as the prospect of rising interest rates. I'll place it in my reversal watch list but it's not ready yet. 





	

		
			
		

		
	
 Weekly chart showing support and prior AT buy pattern.


----------



## Sharkman (28 February 2022)

if i didn't already have a CBA position on my books (that i took on in dec to strip the div) i'd be sorely tempted to sell the $92 mar puts here. with stock at around $93 those were fetching around $1.90 at the mid for 2.5 weeks to expiry. almost like getting paid an extra (unfranked) div if one doesn't mind taking delivery at $92.

IV is quite elevated at just shy of 30, and interestingly all 4 of the majors are showing similar IVs around the 28-29 level for mar slightly OTM puts. normally CBA trades at noticeably lower vols to the other 3, but these are not normal times.


----------



## rnr (27 March 2022)

Does anyone else think that CBA is about ready for a move down from these current levels?


----------



## Gunnerguy (27 March 2022)

Sharkman said:


> if i didn't already have a CBA position on my books (that i took on in dec to strip the div) i'd be sorely tempted to sell the $92 mar puts here. with stock at around $93 those were fetching around $1.90 at the mid for 2.5 weeks to expiry. almost like getting paid an extra (unfranked) div if one doesn't mind taking delivery at $92.
> 
> IV is quite elevated at just shy of 30, and interestingly all 4 of the majors are showing similar IVs around the 28-29 level for mar slightly OTM puts. normally CBA trades at noticeably lower vols to the other 3, but these are not normal times.



Currently short some April $92 puts. Sold them around 10th March. I may BTC and roll up to $94/$96/$98 for May.
Gunnerguy.


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## Sharkman (28 March 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Currently short some April $92 puts. Sold them around 10th March. I may BTC and roll up to $94/$96/$98 for May.
> Gunnerguy.




seems sensible. had a quick look at the market today and skew seems rather steep though - MM was showing 0.13/0.24 on those apr 92 puts when i checked a short while ago, that's 35'ish IV. the apr 106 puts (slightly OTM) were only 22 IV (and that in itself is already substantially elevated, CBA tends to hover around 12-13 in "normal" times), so it will be expensive (in vol terms) to close. might still be worth doing anyway if you took in >1.00 originally, it'll secure 80% of the max gain and get the risk off your books.


----------



## CityIndex (28 March 2022)

rnr said:


> Does anyone else think that CBA is about ready for a move down from these current levels?



It wouldn’t be surprising to see some profit-taking after such a steep rally, and given the stock’s inability to hold above $108, it could face rejection and turn lower once again.

However, there does also seem to be decent support around $106, so it might need to close below this level on elevated volume to open the possibility for a deeper pullback.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to watch how $CBA trades for the remainder of this week.


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## Sharkman (29 March 2022)

CityIndex said:


> It wouldn’t be surprising to see some profit-taking after such a steep rally, and given the stock’s inability to hold above $108, it could face rejection and turn lower once again.




agree, it did get rejected at these sorts of levels a few times last year, i'm also looking for a moderate pullback.

i sold the jun 100 puts last week for about a 2.25% premium. nothing fancy, just a no frills trade, as i may have to leave it unmonitored for a while due to some real life stuff coming up, so wanted a position that can be left sitting there decaying away without having to worry too much about it exploding my account. don't mind if it gets assigned, then i reacquire the stock position that was called away a couple of weeks ago at the same 100, in time to strip the aug div.


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## Porper (29 March 2022)

rnr said:


> View attachment 139555
> 
> 
> Does anyone else think that CBA is about ready for a move down from these current levels?




I am looking for another leg up to the target shown....as a minimum. Funny how almost all the brokers have CBA as their least preferred big bank. Longer term, it's looking good still i.m.o. I prefer Westpac short to medium term...has better patterns for me.

Disclosure: I hold WBC


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## rnr (29 March 2022)

Porper said:


> I am looking for another leg up to the target shown....as a minimum. Funny how almost all the brokers have CBA as their least preferred big bank. Longer term, it's looking good still i.m.o. I prefer Westpac short to medium term...has better patterns for me.
> 
> Disclosure: I hold WBC
> 
> View attachment 139645



Hi @Porper,
Many thanks for sharing your analysis as it is always appreciated. Setting my charts to open up with a larger time-frame (say 2 years) would certainly help! Hopefully your family & work colleagues have remained safe during the COVID pandemic.
Regards, Rob


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## Porper (29 March 2022)

rnr said:


> Hi @Porper,
> Many thanks for sharing your analysis as it is always appreciated. Setting my charts to open up with a larger time-frame (say 2 years) would certainly help! Hopefully your family & work colleagues have remained safe during the COVID pandemic.
> Regards, Rob



All good here in NZ Rob thanks. Hope all your clan are ok and that you are making some bucks on the markets.


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## Sharkman (30 March 2022)

Porper said:


> Funny how almost all the brokers have CBA as their least preferred big bank




yeah i'm a bit confused by what i'm seeing too. i was looking at some 1 month 25'ish delta puts across the big banks today in considering a possible trade along those lines, and strangely CBAs were sitting 2-3 vol higher than the other 3, they were around 23 whereas NAB/WBC were about 20 and ANZ about 21.

usually it's the other way round, CBA is traditionally the lowest beta of the big 4, in "normal" times CBA typically sits around 12-13 and the other 3 hover around 14-15. not sure what's going on. do they know something we don't, or is this just an excellent opportunity to rack up some good decay for relatively low risk?


----------



## divs4ever (30 March 2022)

Sharkman said:


> yeah i'm a bit confused by what i'm seeing too. i was looking at some 1 month 25'ish delta puts across the big banks today in considering a possible trade along those lines, and strangely CBAs were sitting 2-3 vol higher than the other 3, they were around 23 whereas NAB/WBC were about 20 and ANZ about 21.
> 
> usually it's the other way round, CBA is traditionally the lowest beta of the big 4, in "normal" times CBA typically sits around 12-13 and the other 3 hover around 14-15. not sure what's going on. do they know something we don't, or is this just an excellent opportunity to rack up some good decay for relatively low risk?




 well there should be a housing market stress coming ( too soon for some ) , given the history ( and size ) of CBA one would think the Federal Government  is more liable  to throw the life-line to CBA quickly ( the others MIGHT be let wiggle for a while )

 there is also inflation building   , i am guessing  NORMALLY the analysts/fund managers  would see the better growth potential of the 'lesser  three ' but now they prefer the bulk and defensive traits of CBA


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## Sharkman (30 March 2022)

divs4ever said:


> well there should be a housing market stress coming ( too soon for some ) , given the history ( and size ) of CBA one would think the Federal Government  is more liable  to throw the life-line to CBA quickly ( the others MIGHT be let wiggle for a while )
> 
> there is also inflation building   , i am guessing  NORMALLY the analysts/fund managers  would see the better growth potential of the 'lesser  three ' but now they prefer the bulk and defensive traits of CBA




that's the thing though - i don't know whether the gov will treat CBA preferentially given its larger mortgage book or not, but if that were the case and/or if the fund managers are now preferring the defensive traits of CBA, that should reduce its perceived risk which should result in it having a *lower* IV than the others, not higher.

something is bidding up those vols, possibly there's a lot of downside protection being bought. i guess maybe because CBA has the largest mortgage book instos are worried it'll get hit the hardest if housing runs into trouble when rates start rising? purely a guess though, i really have no idea at the moment.


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## divs4ever (30 March 2022)

plenty of guessing to be had , in earlier times you could guess  a government reaction , but now we have 'bail-in ' provisions  and 'unquestionably strong  banks ' ( will the government follow the new plan  , or start throwing life-lines 

 and remember index funds  put money in the biggest shares  ( whether they are a bubble or not ) and i suspect quite a bit of super money finds it's way into ETFs 



Sharkman said:


> i really have no idea at the moment.



 neither do i , but i have a plan for if the market ( and banks ) climb and climb and one for a  major down  ( and buy SOME dips if it just keeps on bouncing along )


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## Sean K (10 June 2022)

Not sure if this is a dead cat, or if it's found a support base. Probably at the mercy of US overnight markets at the moment.


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## eskys (10 June 2022)

All that excitement this morning didn't last long, one major gone red


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## Dona Ferentes (10 June 2022)

eskys said:


> All that excitement this morning didn't last long, one major gone red



didn't even fill the gap


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## eskys (10 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> didn't even fill the gap



yeah, not enough fillers in the cracks


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## dyna (16 July 2022)

Wednesday, 13 th AFR :

CBA's stake in giant BNPL ( plus  normal banking services in Europe ) Swedish player, KLARNA , is still in profit, with its holding worth $ US 335 Million after taking part in the recent $ US 800 Million raising. That brings KLARNA's mkt cap up to $ US 6.7 Billion, a fair bit down from the $ US 45.6 Billion valuation, a year ago.

CBA's investment in the buy-now, pay-later show, was worth a cool $ 2.3 Billion back then, too.
The bank doesn't see the next generation of customers, ever returning to its once highly profitable credit card racket.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 August 2022)

A fully franked final dividend of $2.10 per share has been determined for the six months to 30 June 2022.






over the 12 months to June 30 the bank had lifted its mortgage lending by $36.4 billion or 7.4 per cent, to $528 billion.
household deposits were up by 13.2 per cent or $40.9 billion and business deposits were up 15.1 per cent or $23.9 billion.
CBA said 98 per cent of its home loan lending was to customers with CBA transaction accounts, helping it to monitor risk.
Business lending grew by more than housing; it was up 13.6 per cent or $15.4 billion, to $180 billion.
Common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital was 11.5 per cent, stronger than its level before COVID-19.
Bad debts remain low, home loans more than 90 days overdue fell to just 0.49 per cent of all loans, down from 0.64 per cent a year ago. Credit card arrears also fell.
net interest margin, the key driver of a bank’s revenue, was 1.9 per cent, down 0.18 percentage points over the year


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## Dona Ferentes (10 August 2022)

Of course, there's the impairment for the Klarna folly; CBA has now written down the value of its stake in Swedish buy now, pay later group from $2.7 billion on June 30, 2021 to $408 million as at 30 June, 2022.


> .... the huge write-down was driven by changes in private equity valuations over the year and revenue multiple adjustments lower.


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## gartley (10 August 2022)

One of the first ones I bought when the rally was starting but now have exited this position as most likely this will re test lows.  Price met price projection and is now a sell for me.


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## Sharkman (10 August 2022)

i'm not so sure the rally is done just yet, 30 day EMA looks like it's about to cross over the 180 day, maybe it's not quite out of puff just yet. i did sell the sep 100.01 (european style) covered calls the other day anyway, as it's basically like collecting a second dividend, and the collateral can always be recycled into stripping the div of one of the other 3 in nov if it gets assigned. i'll still regret it if it ends up hitting those 108 peaks as it's done a few times over the past year, but with vols hovering in the low 20s (significantly elevated vs CBA's historical tendency) i thought it was worth the risk


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## mullokintyre (9 November 2022)

Given the size of the CBA in the Oz financial scene, I am more than a little surprised that there is not a flurry of comments about the CBA.
I have not traded or held CBA for some time, its just not one of my things.
The CBA, like most of the banks, took a little skin in the bruising Royal Commission, and one would hope they had learnt their lesson.
However, i am not sure , firstly when dealing my fathers estate  over the past year or so, and now with an intriguing potential court case.
From the evil Murdoch press


> Commonwealth Bank faces the threat of a new class action, this time against its share trading arm CommSec, as wealthy businessman Alistair Paton ramps up complaints including accusations of falsifying records and withholding information.
> Mr Paton – a former Deutsche Bank employee and hospitality and property entrepreneur – told The Australian he was not backing down in his fight against CBA. His matter is currently being examined in detail by the Australian Financial Complaints Authority.
> 
> “It (CBA’s conduct) goes against all of the things they committed to after the banking royal commission, and with the CommSec overcharging case it seems like all of that happened at once,” he said.
> ...



It remains to be seen whether anything will come of this, but the bank may yet regret fobbing off this particular plaintiff as he seems to have some sizeable funds at his disposable.
Its one thing to rip off the mum and dads, but woe betide the bank that tries to rip off the well to do.
Mick


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## rcw1 (25 November 2022)

Good afternoon
CBA on steroids.  Never witnessed the SP so high ever... Well done to those holding.

Not holding ha ha ha ha ha
Edit: haven't held for over 12 months.

Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Sharkman (25 November 2022)

getting very tempted by something like a 108-100 jan '23 bear put spread the last couple of days. good delta skew there, buy the 108s at 16 IV, sell the 100s at 20 IV, about $1.50 at the mids = <20% the distance between the strikes. i probably won't end up doing one, as i swore off long gamma plays a while ago, don't think i've made one for over a year now. but it is rather tempting seeing that it's bounced off resistance at the sort of level it's at now quite a few times recently.

i have a smallish long stock position in my long term buy & hold portfolio. every 6 months i try to do a sell puts - take delivery - strip div - sell covered calls - get called away sequence in my options trading portfolio, but sometimes things don't line up and i don't end up doing it, or i sell the puts and they don't get assigned, in which case i just pocket the premium and move on. no position in the options trading portfolio at the moment.


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## rcw1 (29 November 2022)

Good afternoon

The Federal Court has struck out charges against Commonwealth Bank alleging it had wrongly charged customers $55m over nine years for account access fees.  The Australian Securities and Investments Commission had lobbed the court claims at CBA, claiming the bank charged customers fees to access their accounts despite representing to customers' those fees would be waived.

However, the Federal Court found in favour of CBA, finding CBA's terms and conditions, that customers should check to see if there were errors in statements was sufficient.  The court found CBA did not represent that it would have adequate systems in place to ensure fees would be waived.  Rather, CBA was found to have told customers that the bank “can get things wrong, and when this happens” the bank is “determined to make them right again”.

The court found CBA did not breach its general obligations and did not breach its financial services licence.
ASIC deputy chair Sarah Court said the regulator would consider the judgement "and continue to work to ensure large financial institutions charge fees correctly and put their customers first".


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