# Z1P & APT Prediction Competition



## frugal.rock (31 December 2019)

The "not a real competition" is as such;
Predict the *opening* price as at Friday 26/6/2020 for either or both;
*Z1P* - Zip Co Ltd and
*APT* -Afterpay Ltd.
Entries accepted until end of
Wednesday 15/1/2020, WST.
Entrants are required to post in the individual stock thread at least 3 times, at any time during the duration.
A *gift card of $100 AUD* value will be awarded to the entry closest to the mark on each company.
Total of 2 gift cards.
Gift cards will be from any major Australian retailer of *your* choice, as long as they can be purchased *online*. (Offline by negotiation only.)
Gift cards will not be redeemable for cash.
I reserve the right to make up new rules;
a) when I feel like it,
b) if I feel like it,
c) within reasonable range.
The "not a real competition" means that it is NOT a formal competition, as may be required by legislation.
It is however, a gift for participating.
Entries are not Financial Advice and not to be considered as such.
The above has not been approved by Aussie Stock Forums (ASF) Management and may be altered or removed at ASF Management discretion, at any time.
Good luck!
F.Rock


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

My guess is;
Z1P, $5.75
APT, $37.80

The only rule I want to add, is;
There needs to be a minimum of 10 entries for this proposition to be viable. Only need a minimum of 9 more!
PS, disclosures are good too. 
I hold Z1P


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## rederob (1 January 2020)

@frugal.rock I like your thinking on this one.
Z1P has for my liking the preferred attributes for long term success, but it could be a while before it passes APT.
So, these numbers will turn me into a donkey:
Z1P = $5.43
APT = $23.45
Next step is to post in their threads....


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## fergee (1 January 2020)

APT $19.80
Z1P $2.64

I have no financial interest in either company and no plans to do so in the immediate future.


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## barney (1 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> The "not a real competition" is as such;
> Predict the *opening* price as at Friday 26/6/2020 for either or both;
> *Z1P* - Zip Co Ltd and
> *APT* -Afterpay Ltd.
> ...




Nice idea F-R …..

I like your thinking  ……  especially since the gain in popularity of the competitions since @Joe Blow pumped out a few emails  ….  (if Joe is happy to go with it, perhaps he might consider a bulk email for this comp as well?)

On that line of thinking, perhaps the COMPETITION tag on the main FORUM tag could link/add any/all of the currently running Competition threads (not just the monthly) as well so that they are doubly accessible for internet lurkers?

Anyway, this looks a positive way to get lurking punters more involved and your thoughts and efforts are appreciated I'm sure, particularly given you are a more recent members of ASF

In the words of Tome Gleeson … Go "hard"!

I will submit my picks after appropriate due diligence


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

Thanks for the entries thus far!
I figure, as it's aimed at guaging people's opinions to aid my own research, the gift cards should be tax deductible... ATM, I won't be paying a red cent on tax though at EOFY 2019. Hoping for a turn around there because I just love paying tax..
Was thinking of contacting the company's and asking whether they want to contribute to the pool ! Cheers
Just hoping that this doesn't breach ANY rules on the forum or elsewhere?!


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## fergee (1 January 2020)

barney said:


> On that line of thinking, perhaps the COMPETITION tag on the main FORUM tag could link/add any/all of the currently running Competition threads (not just the monthly) as well so that they are doubly accessible for internet lurkers?




Thanks frugal.rock, just wanted to say this is a great idea as well. 

As Barney said regarding lurkers the 2020 comp email from Joe is what brought me out of the shadows and I think a lot of other people too. 

The thing I really like about these comps is that it exposes people to a lot of other companies they may not know about once they see what other people are choosing and why. I hadn't even heard of Z1P to be honest and the more I read about it the more I like it except the current market valuation that is 

Fingers crossed this "market research" you are conducting doesn't go against any forum rules or other regulation.

Cheers,
fergee


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

Here's an independent retailer perspective of both companies which I found interesting.
One of the comments made basically said it's bringing more customers traffic to him so any fees he pays compensate for themselves.


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## fergee (1 January 2020)

Good stuff f.rock. 

Z1P pay (based solely on watching this alone as I haven't researched beyond stock charts yet) sounds like it would be more of a winner for Millennials as it requires only a debit card. Its also lower in fees which retailers will like so adoption could be quicker and no down payment which all customers will like. 

Initial impressions Z1P > APT .. .. . . . although both look over valued to me and running up almost exponentially on the charts so I wouldn't be looking to buy until they were well discounted.


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

Brilliant, thanks all.
Every post has snippets of info with opinions. Love it!
Did a little fundamentals research... Z1P has asperations to be the leading worldwide BNPL company!
(Think I got that out of latest annual report)
They did 2 smaller take overs recently, but have yet to announce final acquisition info. Expected 
early-ish? this year. 
It seems that the acquisitions will be used to start Zip Biz, aiming the BNPL service at small to medium business. They also have a 15% stake in a US BNPL company. 
Will put together a table of announcement tidbits tomorrow morning hopefully.
Cheers.


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## aus_trader (2 January 2020)

I have traded Z1P before as can be seen in my spec portfolio closed positions and made a profit while it was still a fledgling. It's grown into a +billion dollar company so don't know if it has the potential to grow as much as it did before but given it is likely to expand into US and international I think it'll have some upside potential.

APT has already morphed into the +7billion dollar giant and I think there may be more downside than upside unless they can continue their growth rate.

Predictions:
Z1P: $5
APT: $28


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## Knobby22 (2 January 2020)

$56 APT, becoming profitable.
$4.44 Z1P will keep expanding in Australia but waste money trying to compete overseas.


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## frugal.rock (2 January 2020)

Hope the entries keep rolling in while
we prepare for a firestorm Saturday.
If the fire in Jerrawongala NAT Park gets into Meryla State Forest onto Manchester Square and then across 2 km of dry paddock... we gone.
Cheers and stay safe all.
F.Rock


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## fergee (2 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Hope the entries keep rolling in while
> we prepare for a firestorm Saturday.
> If the fire in Jerrawongala NAT Park gets into Meryla State Forest onto Manchester Square and then across 2 km of dry paddock... we gone.
> Cheers and stay safe all.
> F.Rock



Damn man take care. Hope your prepared to bug out if necessary.


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## aus_trader (3 January 2020)

Prepare as much as you can and please stay alert frugal.rock, in case you need to evacuate in time. Take care.


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## Knobby22 (3 January 2020)

Yes, the Saturday weather  forecast is terrible. Good luck, be careful.


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## frugal.rock (3 January 2020)

Cheers for the well wishes.
Have been busy reducing fuel loads... there's a southerly change coming through tomorrow evening at some stage, the southerly winds are going to push the fire closer, but I don't expect it to get too far before the winds will hold it up again. Trusting the weather forecasts here!
I lied, it's actually 7km of paddock measured off Six Maps. 
She'll be right, mate! Ready to bug out, but shouldn't need to. 
I noticed the zip caretaker packaged it back into it's box again this afternoon.... seemingly set for Monday again.


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## barney (3 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I noticed the zip caretaker packaged it back into it's box again this afternoon.... seemingly set for Monday again.




Good luck with fires FR

Re Z1P … I'm on the fence at the moment … In other words I have no idea. Looks an each way bet in the short term

The mess on the chart reflects my indecision


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## frugal.rock (4 January 2020)

barney said:


> Good luck with fires FR
> 
> Re Z1P … I'm on the fence at the moment … In other words I have no idea. Looks an each way bet in the short term
> 
> The mess on the chart reflects my indecision



Thanks Barney. 
So are you going to wait and see a bit before you enter, eh? Why not. Still a good week and a half until entries close for due diligence!
I really wouldn't want Joe sending out emails...extra work for him and me!
5 entries in so far. 



barney said:


> In the words of Tome Gleeson … Go "hard"!
> 
> I will submit my picks after appropriate due diligence



Went "hard"... and have a rather large stake in it now. 
If it does breach 3.50 "hard", I won't be dumping unless things are pointing to a most probable lower re-entry. Otherwise, happy to sit put. 

Was wondering if you wanted to change your guesses fergee, after your due diligence research?
Cheers.
F.Rock


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## fergee (4 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Was wondering if you wanted to change your guesses fergee, after your due diligence research?
> Cheers.
> F.Rock




F.Rock that is mighty generous of you! 
You know what I was kind of kicking myself about those guesses ,I think I would like to change them


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## barney (4 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Thanks Barney.
> So are you going to wait and see a bit before you enter




Yeah might just keep the lid on the powder for a day or two


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## aus_trader (4 January 2020)

barney said:


> Good luck with fires FR
> 
> Re Z1P … I'm on the fence at the moment … In other words I have no idea. Looks an each way bet in the short term
> 
> ...




Lot of work gone into the chart analysis @barney, nice to see the consolidation channel in play at the moment...


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## barney (4 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Lot of work gone into the chart analysis @barney, nice to see the consolidation channel in play at the moment...




Yeah, I think the more I looked at it the more unsure I became

It still feels a bit indecisive to me given its already had a good run up in mid October.

If the current Support line holds no problem. Would not like to see that breached with any gusto.

On the flip side a wise man once said, never sell a double bottom in an uptrend!


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## frugal.rock (4 January 2020)

So, some terms of endearment;
Selling pressure, consolidation, fence sitting...
So with selling pressure, when the SP is holding, this indicates support.
Write that bit 2 hours ago. Wind turned. Smoke and embers ash 2 minutes later...wow. There's a few break outs.... shite


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## fergee (4 January 2020)

barney said:


> On the flip side a wise man once said, never sell a double bottom in an uptrend!
> View attachment 99458




I was at the pub with my mate once and he told me don't just check out the nice double bottoms you have to look out for the ugly head and shoulders too.


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## aus_trader (4 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I was at the pub with my mate once and he told me don't just check out the nice double bottoms you have to look out for the ugly head and shoulders too.



Thanks for the reminder, you can get hypnotized looking at the bottoms but I am now starting to see an obscure Head & Shoulders as well on the chart above from barney.


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## fergee (4 January 2020)

This is what I am seeing for Z1P on the charts using the weekly.  I think a pretty serious top has been put in at the 5.80 region which was also the 1.61 fib extension target. It coincided with negative RSI divergence dropped and broke the trend line from the start of 2019. The important level @barney pointed out is key this next week, if we see that break then $3 is on the cards. Just my 2c


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## bigdog (6 January 2020)

APT $60
-- own and made my first AFTERPAY purchase in December, very easy to use APP on phone
-- have been to their past two meetings in Melbourne and like what I hear
-- Afterpay is making good progress on its international expansion strategy
-- In UK already gained a solid start.
-- very confident that they can deliver in Australia and overseas

Z1P $10
-- own and confident that they can deliver based upon VG recent reports


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## frugal.rock (6 January 2020)

Made a partial exit on Z1P today after seeing the bottom of Sezzles break down and jumped onto it.
Sentiment from above posts echoed through my head, along with the fact that I knew a retrace to circa 3.20 was probable... Z1P has taken a liking to following the market recently I noticed. Often wasn't the case.
Watching the scenario closely!
Cheers.
F.Rock


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## barney (6 January 2020)

Just trying to piece a couple of things together with this given the increase in Volume at the low of the short term range.

I am now of the view that the current move to the lows is a Squeeze by the deep pockets brigade.

The recent $60 million cap raise to Instos/Pros was oversubscribed at $3.70 so there are now a lot of large share holders at that level.

If the SP is pressured to fall substantially under that cap raise price, a lot of those shares will find their way to market from weaker hands/smaller investors under the pump etc etc.

I now expect the "important level" lows to be tested/broken to the downside while the deep pockets mop up the pain and see how many shares they can gather at bargain prices. 

How low?  No idea  ... The Volume will tell the story from here. 

Might pierce the lows and reverse sharply if the Sellers stand their ground or if the DP's are happy to simply target the retail traders (less available Stock to muster). The lower it gets pushed the more panic is likely though. 

Any more than 10% under the CR price (ie $3.33 or less might see some sharp volatility develop)

The trader in me says its probably a good time to start accumulating while the big end of town are digging holes

Long post sorry …. but I wanted to explain the rationale behind my babblings


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## frugal.rock (6 January 2020)

barney said:


> I am now of the view that the current move to the lows is a Squeeze by the deep pockets brigade.
> 
> I now expect the "important level" lows to be tested/broken to the downside while the deep pockets mop up the pain and see how many shares they can gather at bargain prices.
> 
> ...



A long post is a good post when full of gem's! Better than a long face...
A smaller range today, bigger volume. All down. Sqquueeeezzz
The deep pockets brigade indeed!
Am interested to see the short report for today, Fridays was around 300k.
F.Rock


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## frugal.rock (8 January 2020)

barney said:


> Just trying to piece a couple of things together with this given the increase in Volume at the low of the short term range.
> 
> I am now of the view that the current move to the lows is a Squeeze by the deep pockets brigade.
> 
> ...



Alrighty Barney!
Z1P seems to be following your script to the letter! 
I'm now all out. Hoping for a nice re-entry somewhere. Any current thoughts on it from anyone would be largely appreciated. The work car decided to break down and not start this morning... very timely!
Cheers.
F.Rock


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## aus_trader (8 January 2020)

Looks like @barney got this analysed well and unfortunately on a big down day today Z1P looks to be breaking down the support levels that was drawn.


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## Boggo (8 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm now all out. Hoping for a nice re-entry somewhere. *Any current thoughts on it from anyone* would be largely appreciated. The work car decided to break down and not start this morning... very timely!
> Cheers.
> F.Rock




My  although I am out.

Nothing much to go on other than Fib retracement and area of recent lows.
Could be looking at 2.70's to 2.80's at a rough guess.

(click to expand)


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## frugal.rock (8 January 2020)

Nice chart @Boggo
Thanks for taking the time, much obliged. 
Did you want to have a stab at the "comp" figures?
Cheers.
F.Rock


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## barney (8 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Looks like @barney got this analysed well and unfortunately on a big down day today Z1P looks to be breaking down the support levels that was drawn.




Funnily enough Aus, Even if I may be close to the money on this one, I take little enjoyment from it dropping, as I know a few here hold  ….. the price action a few days back just didn't sit quite right and it's playing out that way at the moment.

That $60 million cap raise at $3.70 is still ringing in my ears though …. Big Players are happy to use time to their advantage to take we smaller punters to the wall …. There will be a time to accumulate this and the reversal will likely be strong (assuming fundamentals remain ok) ….

It all depends on how long it takes the "players" to squeeze the rest ….. sometimes takes a month sometimes a year or two ... Hopefully we can decipher the Volume v Price as it happens



frugal.rock said:


> Alrighty Barney! Z1P seems to be following your script to the letter!  I'm now all out.




I'm glad you are out with your shirt … hopefully the SZL profits eased the pain a bit


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## frugal.rock (9 January 2020)

Well, Sezzle eased a bit more pain today.
Nearly jumped ship back to Z1P today also... but not convinced it's finished it's circa 3.20 saga despite today's efforts. The 7 cent gap up on opening is nothing greatly out of the ordinary, however some good volume on the spring.
With today's market smashing up and gold being dumped, I want to see it going up against the market trend.
Am hoping for a re-entry below 3.30 but however, like you say @barney, there's the big boys playing with it.
I watched it climb ~60% in October over ~2 weeks, in disbelief!
ASX shorts report yesterday circa 900,000 that's somewhere around 16% of yesterday's volume...
F.Rock


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## Boggo (10 January 2020)

Yes, interesting behaviour today.
Didn't see that coming, not ready to trust it just yet but definitely a relief for those still holding.


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## fergee (10 January 2020)

Boggo said:


> Yes, interesting behaviour today.



Very interesting indeed!
Z1P just jumped back over @barney  "line of importance" Im wondering if this break down is a head fake back to the upside or a double head fake if it breaks back down below the resistance line again. Volume will be a key clue here. If I had to put my money on it I would say it will be a double head fake and a continuation of the medium term trend down to ~$3. Just my


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## aus_trader (10 January 2020)

fergee said:


> Very interesting indeed!
> Z1P just jumped back over @barney  "line of importance" Im wondering if this break down is a head fake back to the upside or a double head fake if it breaks back down below the resistance line again. Volume will be a key clue here. If I had to put my money on it I would say it will be a double head fake and a continuation of the medium term trend down to ~$3. Just my




Yes very hard to predict at the moment...


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## fergee (10 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Yes very hard to predict at the moment...



Agreed aus_trader. One would have to be very careful shorting Z1P, although tactically reducing weighting then waiting for a better entry could be a good option right now imo.

I have only been following this for a week or so but this company looks like a good bottom draw investment for the longer run......if the price was right of course


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## frugal.rock (10 January 2020)

Bottom drawer indeed.
Just remember the quote "Time wait's for no man", neither does zip I have experienced.
F.Rock
PS: I am reading the psychology of this situation as uncertainty (beautifully orchestrated...). 
It's a reverse situation of watching a stock drop, and not jumping ship. 
Pondering time.


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## fergee (11 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> It's a reverse situation of watching a stock drop, and not jumping ship.
> Pondering time.



"Better sometimes to miss an opportunity than to invite disaster" ~ Stilgar(Dune)


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## frugal.rock (11 January 2020)

fergee said:


> "Better sometimes to miss an opportunity than to invite disaster" ~ Stilgar(Dune)



Touche


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## frugal.rock (13 January 2020)

However, Z1P is back.
Good quarter results just released. 
Growth continues.
Giddy up. Was in Friday @3.53 and this morning 3.47...
F.Rock


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## frugal.rock (13 January 2020)

Update, SP reached a very brief high of 3.78 after the Ann. I was out at 3.70, missed a 3.65 re-entry by a smidge! Still hunting for a re-entry.
F.Rock


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## bigdog (13 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> However, Z1P is back.
> Good quarter results just released.
> Growth continues.
> Giddy up. Was in Friday @3.53 and this morning 3.47...
> F.Rock




*13/01/2020 10:16:24 AM Quarterly Report now uploaded*
Highlights report increases for Revenue +24%, receivables +33%, volume +40% , customers +24% and merchants +17%


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## frugal.rock (13 January 2020)

Love your work @bigdog !
Probably a good time to remind everyone that,
*Entries accepted until end of*
*Wednesday 15/1/2020, WST*
still sitting on your hands @barney ?
F.Rock


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## barney (13 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> still sitting on your hands @barney ?F.Rock




Time is running out for entries as you correctly remind us @frugal.rock   I'll be the 7th entry I think, so you need a few more!

This was a great idea to get some feedback on your specific Stocks while also giving punters a bonus for getting involved …. I think it deserves more attention so maybe it's time for some of us to call out some of our ASF comrades

I see @Boggo above has been following this so come on Boggo … entry please

Come on @tech/a … (Chart skills to kill for!) What have you got for Frugal?

How could we not have @peter2 put his 2 bobs worth in … numbers (please) Pete

@sptrawler ….Great contributor to ASF …. Pick two Stocks and win enough to take the missus for a week's free burger and fries at Maccas (or a couple of nice bottles of Red .. your choice!)

I don't think @Trav. has visited this thread yet …. (he has visited nearly every other though! Legend)

So many more … @So_Cynical ..another legend ASF'er

I have not mentioned a bucket load of Punters (someone else can ADD, so I don't look like a stalker!) 

Frugal has made a generous offer/donation to ASF … lets give this some support


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## frugal.rock (13 January 2020)

Cheers @barney, but you forgot the other of my self appointed mentors @Skate  ( @peter2 already mentioned) These guys are the key. If they put an entry in, it will flood.
They may have a good reason to not enter though?  
Cheers, 
F.Rock


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## barney (13 January 2020)

ps   My picks …..

Not exactly what you are probably hoping for @frugal.rock  … but basically how can anyone pick the price of anything 6 months away without getting lucky


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## fergee (13 January 2020)

barney said:


> Time is running out for entries as you correctly remind us @frugal.rock   I'll be the 7th entry I think, so you need a few more!
> 
> This was a great idea to get some feedback on your specific Stocks while also giving punters a bonus for getting involved …. I think it deserves more attention so maybe it's time for some of us to call out some of our ASF comrades
> 
> ...



I am really keen to see @greggles @Knobby22 @Cam019 @MovingAverage @trillionaire#1 @Miner @Purple XS2 have a punt


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## barney (13 January 2020)

Lol …. @Skate doesn't need a mention (just kidding Skate … ) 

He is a squillionaire ….

Sorry … Only a millionaire (multi of course)


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## barney (13 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I am really keen to see @greggles @Knobby22 @Cam019 @MovingAverage @trillionaire#1 @Miner @Purple XS2 have a punt




Absolutely Fergee … although Knobby is in I'm sure

Sorry @Miner ….. you should have been on my short list as well 
So many punters, so little time!


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## fergee (13 January 2020)

barney said:


> Absolutely Fergee … although Knobby is in I'm sure
> 
> Sorry @Miner ….. you should have been on my short list as well
> So many punters, so little time!



I just realised knobby was in already, I should have read back through the posts again 

I forgot @qldfrog @Padowan and @jbocker !

Come on guys get in there lets make this interesting! 
your  for the possibility of a shopping spree on @frugal.rock


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## barney (13 January 2020)

basilio,


northodox,
barmix,
chiff,
brianqman,
Swervin Mervin,
Warr87,
mina29,
Dona Ferentes,
marknz88,
explod,
zaxacel1975
Ok … an old guy (me) trying to be clever here … (unlikely to  work)

But you guys above are online I think?? 

Give @frugal.rock an entry if you feel so possessed 

ps (Lets make his Spreadsheet as hard as Peter2's)


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## fergee (13 January 2020)

barney said:


> ps (Lets make his Spreadsheet as hard as Peter2's)





We cant forget our one and only main duck @tech/a


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## barney (13 January 2020)

fergee said:


> We cant forget our one and only main duck @tech/a




LOL  yeah I did actually call the "Duckman" out earlier but appreciate if more of us call him out he WILL have to respond .... 

Any "Quacks" there Duck??

ps … Can I include a couple of other prolific posters, just in case no one else does. 

@ducati916   and @rederob  …… 

Fierce combatants on various levels  … but a wealth of info in their posts for the masses


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## fergee (13 January 2020)

barney said:


> LOL  yeah I did actually call the "Duckman" out earlier but appreciate if more of us call him out he WILL have to respond ....
> 
> Any "Quacks" there Duck??
> 
> ...




Hey lets throw this out to all the lurkers too, I was one myself until recently, guys get in the mix its all in the name of fun and you might learn something too.

I was going to say there's no right or wrong answer .... but it's a competition so yea there kind of is


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## frugal.rock (13 January 2020)

barney said:


> fergee said:
> 
> 
> > We cant forget our one and only main duck @tech/a
> ...



But, do all the @tech/a  ducks line up?
P2's spreadsheets are harder than this one will be...and where did I promise a spreadsheet?
We're spoilt by P2 in this regard!
Thanks for the promotions...I think?!


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## qldfrog (13 January 2020)

No real clue but lets say: Z1P $4.65 go up but not wonderful
APT:$62.34  and maybe higher if bought back by a major
If I will, I buy a fire hose extension for F.Rock...been trying to buy one for the last month...out of stock..hopefully luckier this time


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## fergee (13 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> But, do all the ducks line up?





frugal.rock said:


> But, do all the ducks line up?
> P2's spreadsheets are harder than this one will be...and where did I promise a spreadsheet?
> We're spoilt by P2 in this regard!
> Thanks for the promotions...I think?!



Its a competition therefore here MUST be a spread sheet... it was written


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## barney (13 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> *where did I promise a spreadsheet? Thanks for the promotions...I think*?!




LOL Once you get your entries finalised Frugal … I will help you with the Spreadsheet

May God help us all


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## frugal.rock (13 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> If I will, I buy a fire hose extension for F.Rock...been trying to buy one for the last month...out of stock..hopefully luckier this time



Tried Purple Pig ?
https://www.powellindustrial.com.au/hoses-supplies/cat/PVC-Hose-Pressure.html


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## barney (13 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> *No real clue*




Who does my Son?  … Who does??

(ps.  I am probably older than you Frog, but that is unimportant .. that was my Cardinal Pell impersonation)


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## jbocker (13 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I just realised knobby was in already, I should have read back through the posts again
> 
> I forgot @qldfrog @Padowan and @jbocker !
> 
> ...




Ok I have will have a crack...
APT $32.23
ZIP $5.23

I don't hold either, and have little knowledge of them. Counting on very modest holding pattern in APT even after a good rise today; and a fair rise in more affordable ZIP.

Thanks @frugal.rock for the comp and thanks @fergee for the comp prompt


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## MovingAverage (13 January 2020)

So I've looked into my crystal ball and what I'm seeing is: 

APT opening at around $36.5 on 26 June 2020. APT has a nice BB squeeze at the moment so I think we'll see it easily rise to around $34 where it will probably encounter some resistance given it's sideways movement at around this level during Nov/Dec last year. I think it will move through this resistance level and approach the $36.5 mark which is around its all time high zone which it reached around Sept / Oct last year. While I'm more of a chart guy and not really into following fundamentals I note APT are due to release their H1 results late Feb and based on Market Index's most recent broker consensus data 10 of 12 brokers have APT as a buy so I'm using this to support my hope there shouldn't be any H1 result surprises that would put my $36.5 guess at risk.

As for Z1P, this I'm finding a bit more difficult to predict based on charts so I'll have to dabble in the dark arts of fundamentals which I really suck at. Z1P has been in a solid downtrend for many months but they have just released quarter ending Dec results that seem respectable. So I think these recent results will see them move up to around $3.80 in a lead up to their H1 results due for release late Feb. I really don't like the look of the charts on Z1P and I just can't see this stock picking up much momentum even if their H1 results meet market expectations so I tipping that Z1P will open on 26 June 2020 at around $4.00.

Disclosure: I don't hold any positions in APT or Z1P.


----------



## aus_trader (13 January 2020)

Fantastic to see some competition coming in from the new entries.

But I am wondering if there is some price manipulation with Z1P. Before the announcement the stock dropped down like a rock and could it be due to institutions etc buying the stock on the cheap by pushing the price down as @barney suggested earlier ? As soon as the Quarterly is out the stock comes roaring back ! Z1P is not the first to be manipulated, see my comments on APT manipulation in it's early days below:

I am not well researched in APT except I was mad as hell when a bearish AFR written article and their associated crooks took out the early punters when it was trading around $7's which took the stock all the way down to the $5's. How far it's risen since then, and I wander if the punters had the conviction to get back on 

I've seen very high stock valuations/price predictions for APT by @Knobby22 , @qldfrog and perhaps a few other members. Anyway, any reasoning for these predictions of more than double the price from where APT is trading now, or just guesses if I may ask?


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## Knobby22 (13 January 2020)

austrader

I don't do charting but have 3 reasons for a higher price,
1. Circumstances
2. Sophisticated buying
3. Value analysis.

Will explain each when next on my PC. Too hard on the mobile +going to bed.


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## qldfrog (14 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Tried Purple Pig ?
> https://www.powellindustrial.com.au/hoses-supplies/cat/PVC-Hose-Pressure.html



Thru my local pump shop...


----------



## qldfrog (14 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Fantastic to see some competition coming in from the new entries.
> 
> But I am wondering if there is some price manipulation with Z1P. Before the announcement the stock dropped down like a rock and could it be due to institutions etc buying the stock on the cheap by pushing the price down as @barney suggested earlier ? As soon as the Quarterly is out the stock comes roaring back ! Z1P is not the first to be manipulated, see my comments on APT manipulation in it's early days below:
> 
> ...



Austrader, i see a market going up overall with potential for takeover of these type of companies by bigger groups: banks and O/S financial groups
I think afterpay could benefit from this more than zip so
Moderate but decent increase for zip and sharp run up for afterpay
I do not hold. So really mostly guess


----------



## aus_trader (14 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Austrader, i see a market going up overall with potential for takeover of these type of companies by bigger groups: banks and O/S financial groups
> I think afterpay could benefit from this more than zip so
> Moderate but decent increase for zip and sharp run up for afterpay
> I do not hold. So really mostly guess




OK, thanks qldfrog. I'll be keeping an eye on it. It's had a nice up day today.



Knobby22 said:


> austrader
> 
> I don't do charting but have 3 reasons for a higher price,
> 1. Circumstances
> ...




Cheers Knobby22, look forward to your thinking behind these points mentioned.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 January 2020)

For those interested in Z1P, around 10 minutes ago, a large volume of around 220,000 shares were bought up @3.68 in one hit... over $800k worth.
Would be interesting to see how that volume blip is treated by the various systems in play? 
What does it all mean?! 
IMO, the psychology is now clearly bullish.
F.Rock


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## barney (14 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> IMO, the psychology is now clearly bullish.
> F.Rock




I'm not arguing with that FR … but I expect $3.20 will get retested … Its just the vibe


----------



## aus_trader (14 January 2020)

barney said:


> I'm not arguing with that FR … but I expect $3.20 will get retested … Its just the vibe



Despite the recent rally, the overall trend is unclear. Probably slightly down if anything so I wouldn't be surprised if there is further consolidation or decline if the big boys continue to meddle with it.


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## MovingAverage (14 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Austrader, i see a market going up overall with potential for takeover of these type of companies by bigger groups: banks and O/S financial groups




I don't claim to know anything about these type of companies, but I do have a question mark as to whether banks will move into this space by acquiring the likes of APT, Z1P etc. From what I understand of these companies (and I may well be completely wrong on this) but don't they operate in the unsecured high risk credit space? Isn't that something the banks are trying to avoid these days? Also, if some of the bigger banks wanted to enter this space surely they could easily move into that space with all of the resources they have? I'm not saying you're logic is wrong on banks looking to acquire the likes of APT or Z1P it's more of my complete ignorance of the space they're playing in.


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## tech/a (14 January 2020)

Not interested in a comp 
But will post a couple of charts when I get a chance
Super busy so could be a while


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## qldfrog (14 January 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I don't claim to know anything about these type of companies, but I do have a question mark as to whether banks will move into this space by acquiring the likes of APT, Z1P etc. From what I understand of these companies (and I may well be completely wrong on this) but don't they operate in the unsecured high risk credit space? Isn't that something the banks are trying to avoid these days? Also, if some of the bigger banks wanted to enter this space surely they could easily move into that space with all of the resources they have? I'm not saying you're logic is wrong on banks looking to acquire the likes of APT or Z1P it's more of my complete ignorance of the space they're playing in.



to be honest, I have no real clue, I think after pay could become bigger of the 2 and attract big fish attention.
You are right  about the fact any big bank could do it, but it could be a chinese bank opening front in Australia, etc
time will tell
I do not own or intend to unless part of my systematic entries


----------



## aus_trader (14 January 2020)

Also Banks are doing a similar thing to facilitate BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) schemes via Credit Cards. They've been doing it for decades, charging late fees and exorbitant 19% interest rates on the purchases that were made on the Credit Cards if the balance is not cleared by due date.

No wonder the banks are so profitable borrowing from RBA/internationally at around 1% and lending that to Credit Card customers to go on shopping sprees and pile on other expenses, enticed further by Frequent Flyer and other bonus point schemes then charging them 19% for not clearing the outstanding balance by due date. So let's see, the bank makes roughly 19% - 1% = 18% on their money. Nice while they are rolling in the dough, but I think people are waking up and going to other places to get their credit cheaply including companies like Z1P/APT to make their purchases on credit and pay it off later.


----------



## MovingAverage (14 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> to be honest, I have no real clue, I think after pay could become bigger of the 2 and attract big fish




I tend to agree with you. APT looks much better on the charts but to be honest a look at benchmarks such as PE, EPS etc and neither look particularly attractive IMHO.


----------



## barney (14 January 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I tend to agree with you. APT looks much better on the charts but to be honest a look at benchmarks such as PE, EPS etc and neither look particularly attractive IMHO.




That was kind of my gut feeling  "MA"  but with nothing concrete to support my gut

I don't like posting negative views on Stocks others own because in the end I get just as many wrong as right and certainly don't want to create any unwanted indecision for other punters (not that they should listen to me anyway)

My main reason apart from the above, in posting low SP's for both Stocks was the "end of June" time of year.  If we are going to get a healthy correction, I suspect June will be as good a place as any to see that eventuate.... All guesswork really


----------



## qldfrog (14 January 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> I tend to agree with you. APT looks much better on the charts but to be honest a look at benchmarks such as PE, EPS etc and neither look particularly attractive IMHO.



But but but we are in a new paradox...rol


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## MovingAverage (14 January 2020)

barney said:


> .... All guesswork really




I think it’s easier to pick this weekend’s lotto numbers than pick a stock’s price six months out


----------



## fergee (14 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But but but we are in a new paradox...rol



I lol(ed) when I read this. Its true the traditional metrics are not how a stock like this is valued instead its customer uptake growth rates, average revenue per user, net promoter score, total addressable market, potential network effects etc.

The current valuations all seem a bit pie in the sky to me they get extrapolated so far out into the future it is hard to take seriously as a true investment and not just a spec trade.

Nice company Z1P but I would only invest in it when it was valued a lot more reasonably and I have a feeling that would only happen in a 2008 style scenario. But I would defo still trade it if I saw a set up I liked


----------



## qldfrog (14 January 2020)

fergee said:


> But I would defo still trade it if I saw a set up I liked



Same here, slave to the system


----------



## frugal.rock (14 January 2020)

"There once was a man from Narse,
his balls were made of brass,
when he jumped, his balls clunked,
and lightning shot out his ar$e..."

-Unknown (from back of a Thredbo toilet door... circa 1985)
F.Rock
Woops, supposed to be in the joke thread...or is it?


----------



## MovingAverage (15 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> "There once was a man from Narse,
> his balls were made of brass,
> when he jumped, his balls clunked,
> and lightning shot out his ar$e..."
> ...




Now there’s something I miss...little ditties on the back of toilet doors. Shame nobody writes on the back of toilet doors anymore


----------



## frugal.rock (15 January 2020)

barney said:


> I'm not arguing with that FR … but I expect $3.20 will get retested … Its just the vibe



Maybe your "vibe" needs new batteries barney ?  buzz buzz

With the rising volume over the last few days, I expect Z1P is building to something, a last few days before SP hike perhaps?
My interpretation is (based off following closely for 6 months) a run up to ~$4.00, a retrace to 3.70 or even 3.50 if it breaks 3.70 properly, then a proper run as seen in October.
I am still waiting for the zipbiz (lending to small-medium business) announcements, which could be the catalyst for the above scenario. 

Westpac hold nearly 15% of Z1P, and provide a dept funding facility.
NAB also have their fingers in the pie somehow?, more research required on my part. 
So, the big 4, so to speak, are in the BNPL space. 
HSBC have a small % stake in afterpay, which may equate to similar money as Westpac in zip, afterpay having a much greater cap (7x zip?) testing my dodgy memory here, please do your own research.

@barney , the main reason for this thread is to gauge opinions. 
As said by the learned participants, the price prediction part is hard to guess. 
If you have negative thoughts on a stock you know I hold, I prefer you share those opinions, pretty sure everyone wants to hear them also.

It's great that the discussion kicked off, and I am honoured by @tech/a commitment to post some charts at some stage, thanks in anticipation,
(a couple of prices predictions would be great also, I know you are not interested in the comp, however, maybe you have a charity, benevolent association, @Joe Blow ASF legal fund etc you could nominate as award recipient?)
Would also be honoured if @peter2 and @Skate could join in, time permitting. 
Muchas gracias all. 
F.Rock


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## tech/a (15 January 2020)

Honored?
Appreciative is fine.
Joe would be my choice if I had to make one.

My apprehension and it maybe others is that I don't wish to be involved in someones search for Analysis on their holdings or proposed holdings 
$100 is cheap for us!


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## barney (15 January 2020)

tech/a said:


> My apprehension and it maybe others is that I don't wish to be involved in someones search for Analysis on their holdings or proposed holdings $100 is cheap for us!




I don't see anything sinister at all to be honest but I respect other's decision to "play" or not for whatever reason. 

@frugal.rock has been a volume poster recently and always adds content and humour on many threads.

The concept of offering a small prize to increase/generate some friendly banter and traffic to the site seems a clever concept …. maybe I'm missing something?

If Frugal is fortunate enough to derive something useful from other's analysis, I'd see that as a positive result for everyone involved especially since 50% of our opinions are wrong over 100% of the time

ps Good luck if you are following mine


----------



## Knobby22 (15 January 2020)

barney said:


> If Frugal is fortunate enough to derive something useful from other's analysis, I'd see that as a positive result for everyone involved especially since 50% of our opinions are wrong over 100% of the time
> 
> ps Good luck if you are following mine




Yes, and here is my comments expanded as promised, but only quickly. Note: 50% chance they are wrong.

So just quickly.

1. Circumstances

Price has been held down by raising, then Austrac review and then delayed SPP.
I think once SPP is over price will rise along original lines (bit of charting useful here).

2. Sophisticated buying
Very keen buying by sophisticated US investors in the raisings and good prices. They are not dumb clucks.

3. Value analysis.
If you look at the growth it is phenomenal. Fast growth like this stops the company being profitable as they are always signing on new clients that only really become profitable when they return. Retention rate is very important. Hope and expect to see a doubling of customers from 2019.
I expect the USA to keep increasing quickly (I note Steggle which is much smaller announced pretty good growth) and Australia to become clearly profitable now that growth is slowing and users are onboard.

Of course the danger is that growth slows or the users don't return in the USA or UK like they have in Oz. The plus is that growth in the USA in particular exceeds expected.

We are talking a business here with already nearly $5 billion a half worth of transactions with a long term margin of imo of 2% after costs. That's $100 mil profit, increasing every half. I note Bell are predicting $15 billion a half in two and a half years based on expected growth!


- With Z1P I'm just guessing. To me it's a little bank that is run extremely well in the consumer space but quite different from APT.


----------



## frugal.rock (16 January 2020)

tech/a said:


> Honored?
> Appreciative is fine.
> Joe would be my choice if I had to make one.
> 
> ...



Fairy 'nuff and to the point.
I'm just a porper in a torpor. 
Should point out that there's $200
if you managed to jag both...
It's a shame you don't wish to be involved, but I get it. 
I've gone through many emotions after reading your post before posting this. 
First came spite, then jealousy, then complacency, a bit of self disgust, then realisation... realisation that I can recognise these emotions, and that's something for me to work on with trading. Recognition and realisation...then self control...
Then that's where the honour bit still applies, don't feel right to me only being appreciative of the input from someone with your expertise!
You've been in the game for x years, I'm pushing a bun out of the oven with 9 months.
It's been emotional.
F.Rock
PS; I am a little confused if you were still going to throw in a chart, or not.
Not under any obligation, except the moral code of gentleman.


----------



## tech/a (16 January 2020)

Will chart them when I get the time.
To be honest the only charts I’ve seen are
Those others have posted on them.

Takes time which is just not in abundance right now


----------



## frugal.rock (16 January 2020)

@barney 
Mate, I appreciate your words and the warmth behind them. It's not often that people go into bat for others, anymore. Times have changed.

Moving along,
The entry time date has slipped past.
Thanks for the entries and I appreciate the banter. 
If anyone else wants to enter, IMO, it's still ok say until end of today, however it's also up to other entrants opinions, as more entries reduces the odds for others, so the other entrants would need to approve this notion.
I don't think we got 10 entries... will stick with the spirit and the "prizes" gifts will still be honoured.
F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (16 January 2020)

tech/a said:


> Takes time which is just not in abundance right now



I won't hold you to it, I know time is a precious commodity these days, myself included.
With a bit of luck, maybe the stocks show up in your setup scans one day and then it might happen in due course anyway. Can only hope.
Cheers.
F.Rock


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## barney (16 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Mate, I appreciate your words and the warmth behind them. It's not often that people go into bat for others, anymore. Times have changed.




No problem FR.  People with good intentions should be supported


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## barney (16 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> If anyone else wants to enter, IMO, it's still ok say until end of today. I don't think we've got 10 entries... will stick with the spirit and the "prizes" gifts will still be honoured.




Maybe close entries at the end of trade tomorrow (end of week) Might get a couple more entries in? 

To be honest I'm surprised more punters have not gotten involved

With @Joe Blow permission … ?? 

I still have not collected my prize from last months Comp and I'd like to add it to the winners prize if ok?

If the Winner manages to *pick both Stocks within 10 cents* or less of their selections, *they get the extra $50. *

Obviously the chances of doing that are fairly remote … so if not won, the *$50 is donated back to the ASF defence fund.*

Is that OK Joe? ( I think it's a lay down misere' you'll get the 50)


----------



## aus_trader (16 January 2020)

Your calculations of odds are really good, if not better than a bookmaker barney 

I also think end of the week is a good cut-off to let the last punters have a dab at the APT/Z1P prize money.


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## Knobby22 (16 January 2020)

People aren't going to look at this thread if they're not interested in these companies, Frugal should set up a thread called *Share Price Guess Competition - Win Money  with little work*, start with the prize money and then go into the detail.--maybe with a table showing the present picks.


----------



## Joe Blow (16 January 2020)

barney said:


> With @Joe Blow permission … ??
> 
> I still have not collected my prize from last months Comp and I'd like to add it to the winners prize if ok?
> 
> ...




That is most certainly OK. You have my permission.


----------



## barney (16 January 2020)

Joe Blow said:


> That is most certainly OK. You have my permission.




Thanks @Joe Blow  … Legend as always ... just put that 50 on ice for a few months lol ….

Given your accommodating persona  ... If some clever bugger does actually pick the Stocks within 10 cents … I'll shout you the $50 for the defence fund anyway (I'll borrow it from my wife's secret stash which I obviously don't know about)

On @Knobby22 suggestion above …… excellent idea!

@frugal.rock   there is still time to get a few more entries.

Given the "comp" doesn't close for a few months, delaying the entry criteria is no big deal … plus it is your idea and "Your Rules"!!

If you and Joe are ok, perhaps Knobby's suggestion *(Share Price Guess Competition - Win Money with little work)* could be implemented forthwith, and a couple of extra days added to the entry date so you get a few more punters on board??

I will still sort your Spreadsheet for you as promised, but bare in mind it will be no where near as colourful as @peter2  or @debtfree  …… I'm old … Spreadsheets used to be for sleeping between before computers took over


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## tech/a (16 January 2020)

As we are looking longer term I'm looking
at Weekly Charts

Managed to get APT done 
This is the most interesting of the 2
I expect to reach the target on the stock 
I've suggested withing 6-9 mths. ($48-$50)
Although I placed 12 on the chart--I think its likely
to happen before 12 mths.

Z1P is more interesting but will have to wait.


----------



## tinhat (17 January 2020)

tech/a said:


> As we are looking longer term I'm looking
> at Weekly Charts
> 
> Managed to get APT done
> ...




 Hi Duck,

Are you bullish the market in general ( and does that matter to you)? 

Are you looking at stocks like APT over a longer time frame for your analysis? How does volume play in the annotated chart you posted above?

I love weekly charts because that is a nice time frame for me. I'd love to look at only monthly as I often don't get time to look at weekly when busy but weekly is doable. I don't recall ever seeing a weekly chart from you before. Same VSA for a weekly for you?


----------



## tech/a (17 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Are you bullish the market in general ( and does that matter to you)?




Yes and in the long term due to filters yes short term no.



> Are you looking at stocks like APT over a longer time frame for your analysis? How does volume play in the annotated chart you posted above?




No its not one Im currently trading (APT) stocks like it yes sometimes in the short term. 
*Volume*
Yes but over time I've come to look at it a little differently than conventional VSA on a Daily chart and on lower time frame charts.
For Longer time frame Im dealing with more volume and a larger crowd than i am in say a daily or Hourly time frame.
These longer time frames have a longer and stronger time horizon. You can see things clearer on the longer frame for longer term decisions.
Shorter time frames of course are easier to read in the contexts of the volume (and Crowd trading it) in and around that time frame.
To use a daily or Hourly Time frame to look at an instrument longer term is of no value. As is it of no value looking at a Weekly Chart to day trade!



> I love weekly charts because that is a nice time frame for me. I'd love to look at only monthly as I often don't get time to look at weekly when busy but weekly is doable. I don't recall ever seeing a weekly chart from you before. Same VSA for a weekly for you?




Mainly because the topic has been shorter time frames.
Never looked at Monthly but have looked at 2 day and 2 week charts (out of the square).
When i say looked played with some research. 2 Week may suit you if you like the idea of monthly.
More bars and data to play with ----
*If your looking at something 98% of others aren't then you "may"see things they dont!*
This of course fits for many using lower time frames like 4 hrly.

Things to think about.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 January 2020)

@tech/a 
Chart looks good, with thanks.

If @Joe Blow wants to change the thread name to something catchier, fine by me. 
*eg; "novice Vampire trader feeds on other traders knowledge wealth" *
My suggestion is probably not suitable and may be misleading...or not...DYOR.

@barney has generously contributed to the potential "prize" gift pool. Conditions for Barney's bit in his post. 

The entries can be open until popular opinion wants it closed I guess.
Maybe close of Australia day? 

Good to see both stocks on the rise this week and more notably for me, zip getting back to its old tricks. Good luck to the holders.
Cheers.
F.Rock


----------



## barney (17 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> If [USER=1]@Joe Blow wants to change the thread name to something catchier, fine by me. *eg; "novice Vampire trader feeds on other traders knowledge wealth" *[/USER]



[USER=257]

[FONT=Arial][COLOR=#000000]Lol FR …… Vampire indeed!!  You blood sucker you! …. not![/COLOR][/FONT]

[FONT=Arial][COLOR=#000000]I'm sure you know I know you know what I know you know;)  Whatever that means.[/COLOR][/FONT]

[FONT=Arial][COLOR=#000000]Good luck with both APT and Z1P[/COLOR][/FONT][/USER]

ps no idea why the type went crazy again … happened a few times lately  … at least its not GREEN!! lol


----------



## barney (18 January 2020)

Spreadsheet as promised ….. I actually learned about the ABS function in Excel so I'm cheering 

*Any chance of a couple more entries* guys/gals??  I can assure you @frugal is not doing this for our advice cause he is already trading these Stocks with plenty of success

Can I twist your arm @tech/a ?? You said you might consider entering in @Joe Blow name … I know Joe would be happy if you won it for him

I know @Boggo and @tinhat  have shown interest in these Stocks as well … Just throw a couple of numbers at me and I'll write you up …. the more the merrier and its all in good spirit

Obviously since we are trying to get as close to a final Stock price as possible, the LOWER the combined percentage of the "distance away" from both Stocks by the competition close the better.

Or to put it another way, the punter with the smallest Blue Bar in the graph below on the closing date gets the chocolates. 

Clear as mud to me  Any suggestions/improvements please feel free to speak.

(@bigdog has gone out hard searching for big moves by June. Will that pay off??)


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2020)

I’m pretty sure the winner will donate to Joe 
My entry won’t make Joe wealthier.


----------



## barney (18 January 2020)

tech/a said:


> I’m pretty sure the winner will donate to Joe
> My entry won’t make Joe wealthier.




All good … I had to ask


----------



## Zaxon (18 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> The "not a real competition" is as such;
> Predict the *opening* price as at Friday 26/6/2020 for either or both;
> *Z1P* - Zip Co Ltd and
> *APT* -Afterpay Ltd.





barney said:


> The comp is closing very soon (I think Frugal was happy to wait a few more days till Australia Day??) so if you would like to throw a couple of numbers at me, please act fast



Z1P - 3.98
APT - 42.01


----------



## barney (18 January 2020)

Zaxon said:


> Z1P - 3.98
> APT - 42.01




Thanks Zaxon and welcome to the comp

As you have highlighted … Frugal has agreed to extend the entry dates till Australia Day 26th January so anyone wishing to throw their hat, or any other appropriate apparel in the ring, please do so (no undies please; its a family show)


----------



## Zaxon (18 January 2020)

barney said:


> Thanks Zaxon and welcome to the comp



Why thank you!


barney said:


> anyone wishing to throw their hat, or any other appropriate apparel in the ring, please do so (no undies please; its a family show)



Hat, boots, and spurs from me.


----------



## barney (18 January 2020)

Zaxon said:


> Why thank you! Hat, boots, and spurs from me.




Whew!! No censorship required … excellent


----------



## Austwide (18 January 2020)

Based on a secret complex formula, results then multiplied by a Random Number and then a bit added or subtracted depending on the Tea Leaves in my cup, I come up with,

APT $36.10
Z1P  $4.56

PS Please send my winnings straight to Joe.


----------



## barney (18 January 2020)

Austwide said:


> Based on a secret complex formula, results then multiplied by a Random Number and then a bit added or subtracted depending on the Tea Leaves in my cup, I come up with,
> 
> APT $36.10
> Z1P  $4.56
> ...




Lol … excellent ….. 

All further entries may as well now cease lest they be relegated to relative insignificance …. 

@Austwide has revealed his connection to the holy grail and has henceforth donated his future winnings to the great @Joe Blow 

I suspect Austwide's real name is "Tim"  We are in your awe "Oh great Tim" ….. Son of Joe!


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2020)

*WEEKLY VIEW

Z1P




Sorry noticed tail should be Tale!!!
$4.80 is the number I have put on it if I had to!
But could fall anywhere in that range.
*


----------



## frugal.rock (19 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Afterpay and Z1P on ABC news yesterday.
> Obviously good for business.
> Does ASIC really want to curtail the BNPL industry? Me thinks not, the code of practice will come in sooner or later.
> The consumer groups make no comparisons to credit cards, wonder why? It's much easier to get into bad debt via credit cards, but let's not mention banks generally charge $20 for every $1000 cash advanced for the priveledge, then typically charge
> ...



F.Rock


----------



## barney (19 January 2020)

Competition Entries still open till Australia Day 26th January. (1 week today)

Welcome to @Austwide the most recent entry.  

Current Entries as at today:


----------



## Knobby22 (19 January 2020)

If the frog or the dog win, I will not be unhappy.


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## frugal.rock (19 January 2020)

Nice chart @tech/a much obliged. Lots of information to take in.
I note increasing volume on the last week or two. More noticeable on the daily. 
Will have to keep the ear to the ground regarding any regulatory changes, which could impact things, however, I don't think anything will change rapidly in this area.
I suspect both companies are on top of what to expect in this regard also.
F.Rock


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## Boggo (19 January 2020)

Just got back today from NZ and trying to catch what is happening here.

A quick glance at a few charts of each (both a bit erratic imo) but my 

APT $44.10
Z1P $6.20


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## frugal.rock (19 January 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> If the frog or the dog win, I will not be unhappy.



or the Bog...
I will not be unhappy either


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## barney (22 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> or the Bog...
> I will not be unhappy either




Both Stocks on the move again today!! 

_(Competition Entries still open till Australia Day 26th January.)_


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## fergee (22 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> or the Bog...
> I will not be unhappy either



I won't be happy if I win
Unless I have some spare capital to mop up some bargains


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## frugal.rock (23 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I won't be happy if I win
> Unless I have some spare capital to mop up some bargains




You can change your entries until the closing date?!
(IMO for what it's worth, my entry for zip is based on the price falling after a zip up...see what I did there?!)

Bit of an important day for Z1P.
Jumped over 8% yesterday on the back of the rising market to close on 4.02 with the largest daily volume since early November, will be interesting to see if it holds above today. Somewhat uncharted territory now.
I was out yesterday at 3.94 (standing order) and 3.98, hoping for a suitable retrace but, if it gets past 4.10 with some momentum, well, zip has a habit of 50c main stops if history repeats... FOMO will present itself for a re-entry!
Starting to look like a contender for the January comp finally! Cheers.
F.Rock


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## frugal.rock (24 January 2020)

I note,
Afterpay in 3rd place in the January comp, up ~25%,
with Z1P in 5th place up ~15%
for the month, thus far....
Afterpay is really zipping along! 
F.Rock


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> You can change your entries until the closing date?!
> (IMO for what it's worth, my entry for zip is based on the price falling after a zip up...see what I did there?!)
> 
> Bit of an important day for Z1P.
> ...



Yean na I think I will stick with my original guess(thesis) on this one, cheers any way though


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## barney (25 January 2020)

fergee said:


> Yean na I think I will stick with my original guess(thesis) on this one, cheers any way though




Yeah, me too. I'm happy to run last in the comp ….  If you chaps holding make a motza as the SP's goes through the roof, then everyone is happy!


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

$4.16 looked like an ideal place to enter a short trade on Z1P. A clear break on the daily of the two trend lines would negate that thesis. Downside target1 $3~, SL $4.50. I am not taking this trade. I just wanted to point out the potential here for a downside move coming in the near term.


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## barney (27 January 2020)

Entries at the "official" start of the comp.  I will update each week.

Winner will be the entry that is closest to zero percent on the close date. If we called it today @MovingAverage would have smashed it out of the park closely followed by @Austwide and @Zaxon 

Long way to go however … should be interesting.  thanks @frugal.rock for stumping up the prizes and good luck to everyone … especially those that hold the Stock in the real world


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## frugal.rock (27 January 2020)

fergee said:


> View attachment 99959
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting theory for the downside target level....
Hoping we don't see that level again?! Or at least, hope I am ready for it.
The daily chart indicates that there has been higher lows and higher highs over the last week on rising volume. 
Support appears to have caught up to current levels, and IMO has been consolidating around the $4 mark and in my mind, not showing enough weakness for a retrace, 
it's still quite bullish!... however, yes, that can turn at the drop of a hat, ie bad market sector day, no reason, insto's, algo's etc.
 a short trade on zip belongs in the very high risk category at the moment!
F.Rock


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## fergee (27 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Interesting theory for the downside target level....
> Hoping we don't see that level again?! Or at least, hope I am ready for it.
> The daily chart indicates that there has been higher lows and higher highs over the last week on rising volume.
> Support appears to have caught up to current levels, and IMO has been consolidating around the $4 mark and in my mind, not showing enough weakness for a retrace,
> ...



Hey could be wrong and I often am....lets watch and see, GL to all holders


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## MovingAverage (27 January 2020)

barney said:


> Entries at the "official" start of the comp.  I will update each week.
> 
> Winner will be the entry that is closest to zero percent on the close date. If we called it today @MovingAverage would have smashed it out of the park closely followed by @Austwide and @Zaxon
> 
> ...




This is a fun comp and will be interesting to watch these stocks over the coming months. Good luck all.


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## tech/a (28 January 2020)

*Z1P *is exhibiting a *similar pattern to APT*
One I Like
This may alter the technical out look on the stock.
I will re visit later in the week.


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

All our thinking might change radically if the virus develops..no market would stay unaffected


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## tech/a (28 January 2020)

*Discretionary Technical analysis is Dynamic.*
As a chart along with some volume and patterns develop
Analysis going forward can and does change.

Not good for long term competitions where discretion cannot be exercised.


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## barney (28 January 2020)

fergee said:


> $4.16 looked like an ideal place to enter a short trade on Z1P.




Looking like a pretty fair call so far today Fergee.  Both Stocks suffering in today's sell off.


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## frugal.rock (28 January 2020)

barney said:


> Looking like a pretty fair call so far today Fergee.  Both Stocks suffering in today's sell off.



Thanks sars.
As SARS isn't going away overnight, could be a bloodbath week.
Wish the bloomin market would get its timing right...! Or is it me...
F.Rock


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## frugal.rock (29 January 2020)

How's that short trade plan working out for you @fergee ? 
Hoping you got out yesterday? 
Are you thinking of lowering your 4.50 SL ? 
All in fun! 
F.Rock


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## fergee (29 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> How's that short trade plan working out for you @fergee ?
> Hoping you got out yesterday?
> Are you thinking of lowering your 4.50 SL ?
> All in fun!
> F.Rock



Ha all good man  I saw the gap got closed today.

I didn't take the trade, as I said in my post, but that's where I would have taken it if I had some spare capital. Kind of playing devils advocate a bit too here as the sentiment around Z1P feels very high right now imho 

$4.50 would have been my max SL but I would be exiting if the SP closed above the old up trend line and the horizontal resistance, around the $4.25 area, $3 downside target. R:R 1:2

It aint over till the fat lady sings either

Trade safe & GL to all Z1P holders


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## tech/a (30 January 2020)

tech/a said:


> *Discretionary Technical analysis is Dynamic.*
> As a chart along with some volume and patterns develop
> Analysis going forward can and does change.
> 
> Not good for long term competitions where discretion cannot be exercised.




*Up date

Not a great deal has changed but a little
Clarity is more evident.



*


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## Knobby22 (31 January 2020)

Hey Frugal,  you are coming third in the monthly comp!


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## frugal.rock (31 January 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Hey Frugal,  you are coming third in the monthly comp!



Hahaha, smashed at the post for 4th.
PBH must have gapped up nicely post close auction!
Congrats on a solid 2nd place @Knobby22
Put zip in again for next month. Really hasn't moved as much as expected this month, as per tech/a chart, we are hopefully getting near the end of the volume control area.
Cheers,
F.Rock


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## fergee (4 February 2020)

Z1P back above horizontal and vertical resistance! Price action proved my call wrong..... looks like game on for Z1P bull run again. Hope everyone holding is making good


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## frugal.rock (4 February 2020)

Back to the good old days... !
Final close 4.35, next stop 4.50
F.Rock


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## barney (11 February 2020)

As at 3pm 11 Feb


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## frugal.rock (11 February 2020)

Thanks Barney. Good to see the visual.
Z1P hit a high of 4.48 intraday last Wednesday the 5th.
Has kept it's tail above 4.02 low.
Today's bar signalling a potential trend reversal. 
Which way will the wind blow tomorrow?
F.Rock


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## barney (16 March 2020)

Things change quickly in a Bear trend ….. 

I'm not exactly happy posting the current situation if anyone holds either Stock, but it is what it is

@fergee is currently on the pulse  ….. He is even more of a Bear than I was/am

Position as at the close today 16th March


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## frugal.rock (16 March 2020)

Thanks Barney.
Was out of Z1P at $3.83... took a fair hit on that.
Back in on $1.55... a tad early though. Happier to sit and wait on the latter price! Didn't see the virus coming... and thought @fergee  was loopy! 
Who's loopy now?
Cheers.
F.Rock


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## PZ99 (18 March 2020)

If these stocks are an indication of consumer confidence I'd say the economy is stuffed.


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## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

PZ99 said:


> If these stocks are an indication of consumer confidence I'd say the economy is stuffed.



They would have to be two companies, most linked to consumer spending and sentiment, which as you say, isn't the best at the moment.
Anyone into knife catching?


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## fergee (24 March 2020)

barney said:


> Things change quickly in a Bear trend …..
> 
> I'm not exactly happy posting the current situation if anyone holds either Stock, but it is what it is
> 
> ...



@barney I have just come out hibernation mate getting a bit hungrrrrry


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## barney (24 March 2020)

fergee said:


> @barney I have just come out hibernation mate getting a bit hungrrrrry




Certainly showing some signs of life after being smashed ….. Yo-yo's are generally best value when the string is long …. string was shortened today and if the Dow continues as it looks pre-open, the string on APT will probably be even shorter tomorrow …. There should be more opportunities given the current market.


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## frugal.rock (25 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Anyone into knife catching?



I know you are just baiting me...
There's a trick to catching knives....
A lot depends on, who's throwing the knife and how heavy it is... which leads me to, sometimes it's not a knife, it's a hatchet, axe or a broadsword.... try to catch those ones and they just take you with them...
F.Rock


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## peter2 (11 May 2020)

Time for an update to this comp. Prices have rallied hard after the selloff. The bullish optimists are looking good.


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## barney (11 May 2020)

You read my mind Peter.  I was feeling sorry for APT holders just over a month ago and thought it impolite to post after the crash ….

A month later and it has gone absolutely ballistic.   "Tencent Holdings" (Hong Kong) pumping roughly $300 million dollars into the stock since late March has certainly generated some momentum!

I confess I still don't understand how a $10 billion dollar Company can lose $31 million in the first half of the year and have so many punters happy to pay their current share price … Too scary for me

Comp update:- Prices as at 3pm today.  @Zaxon is right on the pulse!!


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## Knobby22 (11 May 2020)

It went up so quick I failed to get back in


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## frugal.rock (11 May 2020)

Me too...


Knobby22 said:


> It went up so quick I failed to get back in


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## barney (26 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It went up so quick I failed to get back in




And it continues to defy gravity!

Update as of yesterday's close (25 May)  I've put the Chart in order so its easier to see.


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## frugal.rock (26 May 2020)

Afterpay...record high today.
$50.01...
And some of us thought @bigdog was throwing pie in the sky figures...
$60 meh. It's got what, nearly 4 weeks? to do it. A doddle. 
Now, Z1P.... catch up egg n spoon race..
I don't hold either. 
Got caught zip down...
And I paidAfter... had bought some around $15 and jumped off like a pussy on a hot tin roof.

F.Rock


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## barney (3 June 2020)

Update as around 2.20 PM today. Both gone ballistic @Boggo has snuck in the back door to take the lead with a well timed run


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## Boggo (3 June 2020)

barney said:


> Update as around 2.20 PM today. Both gone ballistic @Boggo has snuck in the back door to take the lead with a well timed run




Yikes


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## frugal.rock (4 June 2020)

Aye, crazy. 
Hats off to holders... for me though, it's a case of mother Hubbard's cupboard.
Another record high for ZIP, on both SP and volume. Buying pressure hasn't let off. Wondering about @bigdog guess of $10 !?
Who dares wins?

F.Rock


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## barney (10 June 2020)

Only 16 maybe 17? more sleeps till the comp concludes. Obviously bitter sweet for the chaps that were keen on both these but got caught on the sidelines with the crazy down spike and missed a re-entry.

I'm still bewildered by the recovery of APT from around $10 to now over $50

@Boggo is still holding onto the lead, but how about the foresight of @bigdog who has made up massive ground.  Personally, @fergee and I think the Comp was rigged!

Todays prices as at approx. 12.40pm


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## Dona Ferentes (10 June 2020)

real money in BOTH of them would be a handsome reward.

Z1P in purple and APT in Blue

6 month percentage gain charts


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## frugal.rock (10 June 2020)

Well, the way it's going, I might have to see about doing some odd jobs for the winners... so they can pay me so I can then buy them gift cards...


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## frugal.rock (19 June 2020)

The current situation, 
@qldfrog @bigdog @Knobby22 the current contenders to take out the Afterpay prize.


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## frugal.rock (19 June 2020)

For Z1P,
@Boggo @rederob@frugal.rock
are the closest. With a big climb over the next 4 days, @bigdog is in with a chance also. With a good drop, well, there's a bunch of contenders.


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## frugal.rock (19 June 2020)

Some commentary,
I don't hold either, got shaken too many times, the life of the garden variety day trader.
Z1P hit $1 in the Corona virus crash.
APT hit $10
I think it's fair to say, these 2 stocks have surprised most of us.
Clearly, the BNPL "revolt" is here to stay and is steadily gaining worldwide traction, as most other BNPL stocks have shown similar success.

If one considers that Z1P now has around 1/3 of the customer numbers that afterpay have, would it be fair to say that it may get to 1/4 of current APT price in a relatively short term?
IE circa $15.
Or could it be they are massively overpriced?
Dunno. Will let the experienced learned colleagues here comment on that.

I would also like to take the opportunity to thank everyone for participating, and putting in your opinions,  especially my good cobber @barney whom I believe I could trust with my life.

Hats off to you B. 
Muchas Gracia's.

Would love to hear from those who have made  out of these stocks, or if you lost , like me due to an itchy trigger finger and an occasional day job which ruined my trading momentum and mojo on many occasions.

Am still shocked by the results of these, especially considering the unprecedented times we are in.

Cheers! 
F.Rock


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## barney (22 June 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Hats off to you B.




Thanks FR.  I haven't done much really but hopefully it helped a bit

The long term speculation finishes at the end of this week. i will update the positions after the close this arv.


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## barney (22 June 2020)

barney said:


> i will update the positions after the close this arv.




In the words of the great Jim Carey ... Alrighty then.

We are getting down to the pointy end of the Comp.  Whether you hold or not, the progress of both these Stocks in recent times has been an interesting lesson in Trading, and these lessons should not be discounted. (ps I'm not trying to be the teacher here, but I have been the recipient of a few of these trading lessons)

If you were a holder prior to the February-March smashup derby, certain questions arise regarding each punters trading plan.

Did you/Should you have/Could you have/WOULD you have held through that period of capital sucking downturn

If you believed in either Stock 100%, you could have either held/bought more during the selloff, or Sold sometime on the down and bought back in sometime on the way back up (Hindsight is a useless commodity unfortunately so that option is often psychologically difficult, even though possibly the best option)

Anyway, no matter who chose the closest Stock prices as of the end of this week, the bottom line really is, did we trade it well ... and if not, did we learn anything.

These types of Stocks (the ones worth more than 20 cents) are outside my normal zone of vision so I was basically a spectator ... (please note I also am close to LAST place in both picks so anything I may or may not say is basically not worth listening to lol)

Just to clarify the Charts following:-

@frugal.rock was initially interested in both Stocks (separately) ... so I have now included both charts, and the leaders (closest to zero %). 

AND ..... The numbers posted on these charts are to 6 (yes, SIX goddamn it) decimal places, basically because a couple of you chaps are very close to each other with your guesses!

All things being equal, I will update the final tallies at the end of trading Friday arv ..Cheers all, and well done to @frugal.rock for doing something positive for ASF.  I'm sure @Joe Blow appreciates his ongoing input.

pps. If I have screwed up anyone's numbers etc, please let me know ... I love Excel but I'm also old so anything is possible where technology and I meet!


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## frugal.rock (26 June 2020)

The day has arrived.

The most likely contenders,..
Afterpay Ltd, closed yesterday on $56.92
@Knobby22 guess on $56,
@bigdog on $60

Zip Co Ltd closed yesterday on
$5.49
@rederob guess on $5.43,
myself on $5.75

My zip bot is struggling, haha,
I need a good gap up of $0.17 to take out the zip side.
Well within it's capability to do it too !
The suspense is killing me.
Cheers. It's been fun.

I think the results show that this little foray into market sentiment wasn't just for my benefit.
My guesses were simply extrapolated from the trends at the time.
Afterpay has blown the trend off and then some.
Zip, more on target.
All of this with covid19, which was probably not a consideration by many, if any , at the time of entry?!

Have taken a small position (chump change) in FXL as @Dona Ferentes  has highlighted it's individual strength as a well established player, that is actually profitable and has a history of paying dividends.

F.Rock


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## barney (26 June 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> The day has arrived. The most likely contenders
> ..Afterpay Ltd, closed yesterday on $56.92@Knobby22 guess on $56,@bigdog on $60 Zip Co Ltd closed yesterday on $5.49 @rederob guess on $5.43,myself on $5.75




Looks like I will need to employ the 6 decimal places if it stays this close

Will update final charts later today.


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## frugal.rock (26 June 2020)

So we have 3 winnings....




@bigdog takes out closest to the pin for Afterpay for a $100 gift,





@rederob and myself on a tie for Zip! for a $50 gift each.
Broker checked, no funny rounding from a centre point for Zip.

Can @bigdog and @rederob contact me by PM and I will make arrangements.
If you have have any privacy concerns, perhaps @Joe Blow could be the "ham in the sandwich" facilitator.
Cheers guys/gals!


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## rederob (26 June 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> So we have 3 winnings....
> 
> View attachment 105249
> 
> ...



@frugal.rock, please donate any winnings to the ASF fighting fund.
Thanks to those who made this interesting exercise, and of course the prize donor.


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## frugal.rock (26 June 2020)

Woops, double up on the after pay clip.
Here's zip.


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## frugal.rock (26 June 2020)

rederob said:


> @frugal.rock, please donate any winnings to the ASF fighting fund.
> Thanks to those who made this interesting exercise, and of course the prize donor.



Thanks Rob.
Arrangements in progress.


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## frugal.rock (26 June 2020)

@rederob your gifted donation to the ASF Legal Defence Fund has been processed. 
If @Joe Blow could confirm in due course?
Just waiting on @bigdog to finalise my end of proceedings.
Cheers.


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## barney (26 June 2020)

Well done "Rock" for your generosity. And well done to you guys who got really close to the final numbers, especially @bigdog with APT ...... That looked like a rogue prediction at the start but looks pretty good now 

Final Charts etc. below.


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## rederob (26 June 2020)

barney said:


> Well done "Rock" for your generosity. And well done to you guys who got really close to the final numbers, especially @bigdog with APT ...... That looked like a rogue prediction at the start but looks pretty good now
> 
> Final Charts etc. below.
> 
> ...



@bigdog   took both first and last - a rather interesting result.
Oddly, I nearly did the same!


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## Joe Blow (2 July 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> @rederob your gifted donation to the ASF Legal Defence Fund has been processed.
> If @Joe Blow could confirm in due course?
> Just waiting on @bigdog to finalise my end of proceedings.
> Cheers.




Just confirming that the $55 donation to the ASF Legal Defence Fund has been received.

Thank you to @rederob for the donation and @frugal.rock for running the competition and starting all of this.


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## Pocoyo (27 August 2020)

In todays Earnings Afterpay posted Other Income (Late Fees) increase $20m, which is coincidentally the same total loss reduction for the year. 

could not find any information about % of bad debts? Z1P posted 2.2% of bad debts. Any ideas on ASIC September review?


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## frugal.rock (18 September 2020)

Ok, @bigdog finally got in touch and claimed. 
Money has been paid late today.

Thanks again for all the entries.
Was an interesting foray into market research, however I won't be doing it again....

Barney, so I can buy you a bottle for your valuable work with your sheetspreads, let me know when you are getting to the big smoke, eh fella?!
Cheers


----------

