# Russian Invasion



## robertbanking

Hello everyone, hope you are all doing well and staying health.

I kindly wondered please if anyone had any thoughts on how much the US stocks could fall if Russia does invade Ukraine, i know some of this is speculation. Does anyone have any stocks or alternative investments such as REITs that they use to protect themselves against market turbulences please apart from holding amounts in cash? I am restructuring my portfolio and please wanted any guidance on this.

Thank you very much for any advice you can give. Thank you for your kindness and have a wonderful day. All the best.


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## divs4ever

personal thoughts  only  but NOT advice

 i don't think  a Russian incursion will be that disruptive ( but SOME will blame Russia for anything and everything )

 i  think big chunks of the West is already  a basket case , pulling the 'look over there '  trick 

 IF March 2020 wasn't a real crash  , then i have no experience in a real crash  , BUT the global economy has massive disconnects  everywhere .

 i have been carefully accumulating REITs as bond proxies ( over the last 5 years )  , but given the huge amount of easy credit sloshing around that is far from ideal

 good luck trying to work out what a 'safe-haven ' is this time around

 probably try  looking for well-run companies  ( but they are liable to be take-over targets  , especially cashed up ones )

 even without the war concerns the global economy is a mess

 a worst case scenario would be a global credit drought  ( where nobody will lend money  , at any rate )

 use March 2020  as a source of hints  ( but not facts )

 good luck

 now a possible Black Swan would be if China raises the Bamboo Curtain again  ( slashing international trade )


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## Belli

With this:

"Halted stocks, SWIFT, CDS, oil, gold, yachts, rap and heists."





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




as well as this



Belli said:


> MSCI Removes ‘Uninvestable’ Russia From Emerging-Market Indexes - BNN Bloomberg
> 
> 
> (Bloomberg) -- MSCI Inc. is eliminating Russian equities from the firm’s widely-tracked emerging-markets index, cutting the stocks off from a large segment of the investment-fund industry as penalties mount over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bnnbloomberg.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Most likely this will impact on these ETFs available through the ASX:
> 
> EMKT
> EMMG
> FEMX
> IEM
> VGE
> WEMG




anyone who thinks they know is most probably going to be wrong.


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## againsthegrain

Russia is in a vice getting crushed economically,  what would be going through Putins mind now?  Win big or lose it all,  there is no going back now.  Estonia has roughly 24-25% ethic Russian population,  also in Nato.  This is logically the next point of escalation.
See how many Rubles the Nato contract with Estonia is worth, think Putin would see that hand


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## Sean K

againsthegrain said:


> Russia is in a vice getting crushed economically,  what would be going through Putins mind now?  Win big or lose it all,  there is no going back now.  Estonia has roughly 24-25% ethic Russian population,  also in Nato.  This is logically the next point of escalation.
> See how many Rubles the Nato contract with Estonia is worth, think Putin would see that hand




The Baltics are out of the question unless a new government drops NATO. Not sure if that will happen.

This war is going to cripple Russia for years. For a decade at least. 

China might bail them out and keep them afloat somehow. That might have been part of the planning between Vlad and Xi pre-winter olympics.


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## Belli

Sean K said:


> China might bail them out and keep them afloat somehow.













						Isolated Putin’s only lifeline: become Xi’s puppet
					

Evidence is mounting that Xi Jinping knew of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine and positioned China to be uniquely supportive. But why? It would suit Xi for Russia - the international pariah state - to become China’s vassal state.




					www.theage.com.au
				




And from the article, 



> China’s President Xi Jinping alone has the power to keep the Russian economy functional and Putin in power. The Moscow share and derivatives market remains shut because the authorities know what would be revealed if it allowed them to open. How?
> 
> Because the securities of 27 of Russia’s biggest companies continued trading in London for a few days until they were suspended this week. And the losses were horrendous. Before suspension, they’d lost between 90 and 100 per cent of their value since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. The sanction-hit Sberbank was down by 99.7 per cent to trade for just one penny, for instance. Oil giant Lukoil had lost 99.2 per cent.




plus:



> “In reality,” reported London’s _Financial Times_, “many Western banks, refineries and shipowners are in effect ‘self sanctioning’ – behaving as if Russian oil has already been placed under sanctions. ‘Russia’s oil has effectively become toxic,’ said one banker.”
> 
> *The prominent Russian economist Maxim Mironov writes: “I’m often asked about economic sanctions. In short, my scientific conclusion, as a finance professor and PhD from Chicago University – the Russian economy is f---ed.”*


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## Sean K

Belli said:


> Isolated Putin’s only lifeline: become Xi’s puppet
> 
> 
> Evidence is mounting that Xi Jinping knew of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine and positioned China to be uniquely supportive. But why? It would suit Xi for Russia - the international pariah state - to become China’s vassal state.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theage.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And from the article,
> 
> 
> 
> plus:




Russia is now toast. Vlad has dramatically miscalculated on this one and I think Xi let him do it so Russia would become beholden to China. Potentially part of China's long-term grand strategic plan to take control of everything. 

The only thing that's now stopping China is an internal uprising and geography. They are still trapped in East Asia surrounded by countries who are increasingly growing in their hatred. I envisage ASEAN becoming a security block with links to FPDA, ANZUS, AUKUS, and the US-Japan Security Alliance, in the near term. Ultimately, China will be toasted too.


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## Belli

I admit I am no expert but a couple of things seem to have occurred and it's unintentional.

First, NATO would seem to have been re-energised and that in only a couple of weeks.  Totally unexpected.  I have heard that now both Finland and Sweden are considering membership.  That's amazing to me.

And the same with the EU.  It appears to have bonded more than was the case previously.

Sure, Russia will probably resort to a standard tactic of surrounding and reducing places to rubble (We have to destroy the village in order to save it concept) but the further West it goes the greater the opposition appears to be.

While Russia will more than likely occupy the Ukraine, it will have the issue of continuing holding it.  That will further consume resources and will be costly in lives - on both sides.  Wonder which population won't be thrilled to see all the body-bags coming home.


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## Value Collector

Belli said:


> I admit I am no expert but a couple of things seem to have occurred and it's unintentional.
> 
> First, NATO would seem to have been re-energised and that in only a couple of weeks.  Totally unexpected.  I have heard that now both Finland and Sweden are considering membership.  That's amazing to me.
> 
> And the same with the EU.  It appears to have bonded more than was the case previously.
> 
> Sure, Russia will probably resort to a standard tactic of surrounding and reducing places to rubble (We have to destroy the village in order to save it concept) but the further West it goes the greater the opposition appears to be.
> 
> While Russia will more than likely occupy the Ukraine, it will have the issue of continuing holding it.  That will further consume resources and will be costly in lives - on both sides.  Wonder which population won't be thrilled to see all the body-bags coming home.




Apparently Russia is cremating their dead soldiers in the field with mobile crematoriums, so their won’t be body bags heading back to Russia.


> Zelenskyy Says Russians Are Carrying Cremation Chambers Into Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian leader alleged that the chambers are to dispose of Russian troops who have been killed, thereby obscuring the true number of casualties.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com


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## divs4ever

it will also put a bigger drain on the EU economy  ( as well as NATO resources  )  remember NATO only existed to contain the Soviet Union  it has been a cash burden in search of a purpose


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## Value Collector

divs4ever said:


> it will also put a bigger drain on the EU economy  ( as well as NATO resources  )  remember NATO only existed to contain the Soviet Union  it has been a cash burden in search of a purpose



Don’t forget the war against terror, especially Afghanistan. The NATO alliance was activated when the twin towers were attacked.


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## Sean K

divs4ever said:


> it will also put a bigger drain on the EU economy  ( as well as NATO resources  )  remember NATO only existed to contain the Soviet Union  it has been a cash burden in search of a purpose




European countries did spend a lot on defence until the fall of the Berlin Wall, but since the 80s have underspent and relied too heavily on the US. They are all gradually re-arming, particularly the UK. Trump motivated that a little, but Vlad probably has them all hopping now. When you have pacifist Germany and neutral Switzerland supporting Ukraine, it's a clear sign the long term stability of Europe is in question because of Russian kinetic aggression by unilaterally invading a sovereign state and committing crimes against International Humanitarian Law.


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## Sean K

Russia has invaded a sovereign nation and has committed war crimes, but I think NATO 'lending' fighters to Ukraine is going to tip this conflict over an edge. Better to just close Russia off economically and allow the Russian people to sort out their Animal Farm. 

Warplanes on agenda, Biden flags more aid​Reuters, Bloomberg

Lviv/Kyiv | The number of Ukrainian refugees is expected to reach 1.5 million on Sunday as Russia continued its attack 11 days after invading Ukraine and Kyiv pressed for further Western action, including more sanctions and weapons.

Moscow and Kyiv traded blame over a failed ceasefire plan that would have let civilians flee Mariupol and Volnovakha, two southern cities besieged by Russian forces. Another round of talks was tentatively planned for Monday as Ukrainians who could escape spilled into neighbouring Poland, Romania, Slovakia and elsewhere.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky held new talks with US President Joe Biden after the ceasefire deal collapsed.

Biden’s “administration is surging security, humanitarian, and economic assistance to Ukraine and is working closely with Congress to secure additional funding,” he told Zelenskiy on Saturday evening, according to a White House statement.

*The US is working with Poland and in discussions with other NATO allies on a plan to have those countries supply warplanes to Ukraine for use against Russian forces, a White House spokesperson said.*

The talks with Biden followed confusion over the proposed evacuation Saturday of non-combatants, and came after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a fresh warning to Ukraine’s democratically elected leadership.

Russian forces resumed shelling Volnovakha after the agreement of localized cease-fires, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk. Fighting was also taking place along a route meant to serve as a humanitarian corridor to evacuate some 200,000 people from the nearby port city of Mariupol.

In a televised address on Saturday night, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called on people in areas occupied by Russian troops to go on the offensive and fight.

“We must go outside and drive this evil out of our cities,” he said, vowing to rebuild his nation. “My confidence in this is reinforced by the energy of our resistance, our protest.”

Putin earlier reiterated that he wanted a neutral Ukraine that had been “demilitarised” and “denazified,” and likened Western sanctions “to a declaration of war,” adding: “Thank God it has not come to that.”


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## Malown1

Isolated Putin’s only lifeline: become Xi’s puppet​Evidence is mounting that Xi Jinping knew of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine and positioned China to be uniquely supportive. But why? It would suit Xi for Russia - the international pariah state - to become China’s vassal state.
www.theage.com.au

I would also not be surprised if Jinping was simply egging Vlad on so he could see exactly how "The West" reacts to this invasion.
After all, it is exactly what he's planning for Taiwan isn't it!?
A clear insight into our counter re-action, gives him very important information that he can apply to his invasion tactics......if and when!!

imho only.


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## Sean K

Malown1 said:


> Isolated Putin’s only lifeline: become Xi’s puppet​Evidence is mounting that Xi Jinping knew of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine and positioned China to be uniquely supportive. But why? It would suit Xi for Russia - the international pariah state - to become China’s vassal state.
> www.theage.com.au
> 
> I would also not be surprised if Jinping was simply egging Vlad on so he could see exactly how "The West" reacts to this invasion.
> After all, it is exactly what he's planning for Taiwan isn't it!?
> A clear insight into our counter re-action, gives him very important information that he can apply to his invasion tactics......if and when!!
> 
> imho only.




Exactly. This is a trial of how the West responds to China invading Taiwan. Unfortunately for Taiwan, they have very little solid support in the SW Pacific and SE Asia due to the weakness of just about every other country in the region. Only the QUAD, ANZUS, AUKUS, FPDA, ABCA, will put up any support and defence, but they won't. While everyone thinks the US is the most important player here, I think India and Japan hold the keys here. They can shut off the SLOC from/to China from all directions at any time, practically trapping them in their current geography and unable to move. They need to signal that capability right now.


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## Telamelo

I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3


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## Value Collector

Telamelo said:


> I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3



I think he has already bitten of more than he can chew in Ukraine, over 60% of his forces are there, he couldn’t afford to divert more resources to another fight.


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## againsthegrain

Telamelo said:


> I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3




I think the Baltics would be first on the list, Latvia Estonia are surrounded by Russia, have small territory and Russian populations.  A small hit and walk through invasion could be done very easily while testing Nato response.

On the other hand Poland having a population of close to 40M a big land mass,  alot more and some modern weapons coupled with a deep rooted hatred of Russia since the middle ages would be a bear trap soaked in petrol and set on fire.


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## Sean K

Poland could stop this tomorrow, if they wanted.


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## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Exactly. This is a trial of how the West responds to China invading Taiwan. Unfortunately for Taiwan, they have very little solid support in the SW Pacific and SE Asia due to the weakness of just about every other country in the region. Only the QUAD, ANZUS, AUKUS, FPDA, ABCA, will put up any support and defence, but they won't. While everyone thinks the US is the most important player here, I think India and Japan hold the keys here. They can shut off the SLOC from/to China from all directions at any time, practically trapping them in their current geography and unable to move. They need to signal that capability right now.



In the same way as any increased "help" from NATO to the Ukrainian gov is raising the stakes and pushing Putin to go further and further toward full Ukraine takeover ,more deaths and flattening of the actual Ukrainian regions,
I believe any action against maritime channels for China would be an act of war.
Remember Japan's start of WWII?
There is a museum of war in Tokyo where the Japaneses are taught in 2020 why WWII started ....with nice diagrams of import flow routes cut by the US.
This is still the official reason of Pearl Harbour.
a bit like our WMD in irak...
Do we want to give China the same pretext?
And yes Putin and Xi had discussion before , and Xi will support Putin both for Taiwan test and for cheaper minerals.Also because the USD/power hegemony is being destroyed.
China has a strong interest in supporting Putin.

Options aheads:
NATO and EU carry on providing weapons and throwing oil on the fire
 -> half of ukraine flattened and ugly occupation war ..un winnable or nuclear tactical war to cut of weapon flow..an horror not impossible now.

Putin removed from power:
Full short US victory, Reset is unchallenged, Europe muslim in 50y, Ukranian people can breath and be safe but Taiwan is taken over within weeks.
Start of WWIII US vs China hopefully cold

Takeover of Ukraine, installation of delimitarised gov on the real Ukrainian part:
.aka imho the original plan from Putin a Finland like status.
They do what they want as long as neutral.everyone is happy .inc Xi except US and vassals.USD destroyed as sanctions just hit back on long term
Ukraine can have democracy in the half or 2/3 which is Ukrainian,.
Russian part Crimea,Dombas go back to "mother" Russia.
Taiwan doomed but maybe in a bloodless way. Aka HK style

Lastly .carry on the current mess..not sure can go much longer
Civilian evacuation blocked by Ukrainian President ..of course as population are his best weapon
always the case
At one stage,Putin has to go finish the job if only to negotiate deal.terrible for Ukraine population.
But all good,we already have stories of Ukrainian women raped, bad Russians bombing nuclear plant,soon they will be unplugging premature baby units..i hope no one has forgotten these from Kuwait invasion propaganda books?

What a mess ..
however i blame the swamp, Putin and military lobby, i really think the real blame is on the masses of uneducated people we have all become.
Sheeple to propaganda
University degrees here, in the states without having even had a single history unit, happily going to gice covid jabs to kids, chanting democracy for Ukraine while living under 3y of emergency rules, unlegal as not democratically voted discrimination laws, Australians forbidden to leave the country for 3y yet protesting again undemocratic Russia or China.
The irony.
Honestly nothing good i can see ahead.
The covid scam was a test on population submission in the West.
We passed with honors....put your seatbelt on,this will not stop there.
Reset forever....


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## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Poland could stop this tomorrow, if they wanted.



Jesus, do we want to replay WWII?
One nuke could end Poland. And start WWIII one and does not need to be ICBM..so no warning, no defense
Russia and Poland have a deep mutual hate as you say.
most of concentration camps were in Poland...for a reason... and more Russians died there than Jews..
And when Stalin invaded Poland, he wiped out the country...


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## qldfrog

Not to target anyone, but i was always wondering: what the heck looking at US foreign policies and how dumb they were ,with no knowledge of actual history or people feelings, Kosovo, Iran, Irak, Afghanistan, Syria..and then the Russian border states..
How could they do so ...
But looking at reactions here among people who are clearly in the top education/thinking/IQ levels, i understand.
I believe every country has roughly the same % of bright and dumb people..obviously education and natural selection reversal can tweak that..but overall same same.
If decision makers then miss education aka geography/history and know more about NBA or AFL than Prague Spring or USSR , that can explain a lot.. even if they were well intended..which they are obviously not. .


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## Sir Burr

How about the Crimean oil reserves and their water supply that Ukraine cut.
Russians have already taken control of the canal.


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## qldfrog

Sir Burr said:


> How about the Crimean oil reserves and their water supply that Ukraine cut.
> Russians have already taken control of the canal.




Yes funny how the corrupt current Ukrainian government are turned angels🥴
Have been shelling the. Russian part for ages tried to starve gem, are the major resale area for stolen cars in europe under own mafia influenced,human traffic, drugs...all angels and sacking the prosecutor who was going to indict POTUS son for corruption during Obama's time..all fake news obviously, bad mouthing the freedom fighters 😂
But the shells and bullets are real.have pity for the population but not the so called leader who put them there .
And Australia sending weapon to Ukraine from what i read on reuters.. that's a good dog Morrison,
 take care of your country first, the police and military enforcing state borders control a few months agowould be more welcome to clean the floods instead.
My rant of the day over.let's enjoy life now while i can


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## Smurf1976

qldfrog said:


> Not to target anyone, but i was always wondering: what the heck looking at US foreign policies and how dumb they were ,with no knowledge of actual history or people feelings, Kosovo, Iran, Irak, Afghanistan, Syria..and then the Russian border states..
> How could they do so ...



I'm no war expert, I'd have to Google it if someone asked me the exact details of any conflict really, but I've long thought the same about natural resources.

I mean I do "get it" that there are legitimate concerns about the natural environment and so on and for the record I do agree with a lot of that in principle, I can see the point people who oppose mines or dams or whatever are making and it's not without basis. But how on earth does anyone not see Western reliance on oil and gas as the single greatest problem far above and beyond all the others about which so much fuss is made?

Sending literally $ billions every single day, 365 days a year, to obtain a fairly limited resource from countries that are unstable, run by dictators or otherwise unfriendly to the West is just asking for trouble. Surely anyone can see that as being a massive problem which goes far beyond any problems caused by someone drilling a well in Australia?

One's something that we can regulate, that employs locals and which has a not zero but unlikely chance of going badly wrong and making a mess that's difficult to clean up. The other option funds war and destruction, potentially our own. Neither is good but the latter's far worse surely.

It used to bother me but these days I just see it as one of those things. Humans are highly intelligent individually but as a species we have some very major blind spots and do some really silly things.

I see that in the nearest supermarket I can buy chocolate made in Victoria, Tasmania or an unspecified somewhere in Australia. Or I could instead buy a well known product made in Russia. Why the hell is the latter for sale in the first place with or without a war? What happened to helping ourselves first? Better to keep someone employed in Melbourne or Hobart surely than to send money to the other side of the world to a country that we've never had great relations with.

Plenty more like that where the West seems to be doing really silly things that end up facilitating trouble.


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## divs4ever

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm no war expert, I'd have to Google it if someone asked me the exact details of any conflict really, but I've long thought the same about natural resources.
> 
> I mean I do "get it" that there are legitimate concerns about the natural environment and so on and for the record I do agree with a lot of that in principle, I can see the point people who oppose mines or dams or whatever are making and it's not without basis. But how on earth does anyone not see Western reliance on oil and gas as the single greatest problem far above and beyond all the others about which so much fuss is made?
> 
> Sending literally $ billions every single day, 365 days a year, to obtain a fairly limited resource from countries that are unstable, run by dictators or otherwise unfriendly to the West is just asking for trouble. Surely anyone can see that as being a massive problem which goes far beyond any problems caused by someone drilling a well in Australia?
> 
> One's something that we can regulate, that employs locals and which has a not zero but unlikely chance of going badly wrong and making a mess that's difficult to clean up. The other option funds war and destruction, potentially our own. Neither is good but the latter's far worse surely.
> 
> It used to bother me but these days I just see it as one of those things. Humans are highly intelligent individually but as a species we have some very major blind spots and do some really silly things.
> 
> I see that in the nearest supermarket I can buy chocolate made in Victoria, Tasmania or an unspecified somewhere in Australia. Or I could instead buy a well known product made in Russia. Why the hell is the latter for sale in the first place with or without a war? What happened to helping ourselves first? Better to keep someone employed in Melbourne or Hobart surely than to send money to the other side of the world to a country that we've never had great relations with.
> 
> Plenty more like that where the West seems to be doing really silly things that end up facilitating trouble.



 no . no that changed a while back to politicians helping themselves first  ,highlighted  by that little adventure  where super-fund managers ( including 'industry  super-funds '  )  went overseas to find all the good places to  invest Australian workers many 

 unfortunately i had absolutely lost faith in our unions , so all i did was shrugged and sighed ( and remembered  that for the future )

 and in my opinion  we have this addiction  to do even more sillier things ( like all those war machine purchases    , for the military we don't have )


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## Sean K

Interesting stats on how much damage has been done to Russian forces, if you believe them. It looks like they might be in trouble. I initially thought their numbers for the invasion force were a bit light on. In general Army defence theory, you need 3:1 to mount an effective attack against a defending force, so the 120K or so Russians sounded a little light on.

I still don't understand why that huge column of Russian vehicles (assume it's the logistic tail) backed up NW of Kiev hasn't been taken out by Ukraine missiles or their airforce. A single run of a few jets could have decimated them. Three attack helicopters could have done it. Perhaps air defences around those trucks is pretty solid. 


Article in the Oz:
Russia's forces decimated, defence chief says​Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, _The Times reports_ the head of Britain’s armed forces saying.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, said Moscow had “got itself into a mess” and that its invasion was “not going well”.

He also warned that Russia might “turn up the violence” with “more indiscriminate killing” in response to the highly effective Ukrainian resistance.

As many as 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fierce fighting, according to the latest approximate figures published by the Ukrainian armed forces on Sunday.

An estimated 44 aircraft, 285 tanks, 985 armoured vehicles, 109 artillery systems and 60 fuel tanks have also been destroyed. Admiral Radakin said the Kremlin had lost more troops in a week than the UK did in 20 years in Afghanistan.

He also said that the morale of the invading soldiers had been knocked so badly that some had abandoned the convoy destined for Kyiv to camp in the forest.

– The Times


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## againsthegrain

With the long convoys it is more economical to pick off a few vehicles at the start middle and end.  That way the convoy is stuck, soldiers are panicked and you don't waste big bombs. Once the convoy is stuck snipers and land forces can pick it off from either side then recover undamaged equipment


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## JohnDe

Sean K said:


> Interesting stats on how much damage has been done to Russian forces, if you believe them. It looks like they might be in trouble. I initially thought their numbers for the invasion force were a bit light on. In general Army defence theory, you need 3:1 to mount an effective attack against a defending force, so the 120K or so Russians sounded a little light on.
> 
> I still don't understand why that huge column of Russian vehicles (assume it's the logistic tail) backed up NW of Kiev hasn't been taken out by Ukraine missiles or their airforce. A single run of a few jets could have decimated them. Three attack helicopters could have done it. Perhaps air defences around those trucks is pretty solid.
> 
> 
> Article in the Oz:
> Russia's forces decimated, defence chief says​Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, _The Times reports_ the head of Britain’s armed forces saying.
> 
> Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, said Moscow had “got itself into a mess” and that its invasion was “not going well”.
> 
> He also warned that Russia might “turn up the violence” with “more indiscriminate killing” in response to the highly effective Ukrainian resistance.
> 
> As many as 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fierce fighting, according to the latest approximate figures published by the Ukrainian armed forces on Sunday.
> 
> An estimated 44 aircraft, 285 tanks, 985 armoured vehicles, 109 artillery systems and 60 fuel tanks have also been destroyed. Admiral Radakin said the Kremlin had lost more troops in a week than the UK did in 20 years in Afghanistan.
> 
> He also said that the morale of the invading soldiers had been knocked so badly that some had abandoned the convoy destined for Kyiv to camp in the forest.
> 
> – The Times




Russia rely heavily on rail transport, it pretty much stops at the border. The road convoy that long was stupid but they are relying on heavy air defences. Though it didn’t take long for the Ukraine resistance to knock a few front line equipment out and slow the Russian advance. That’s not going to last long, and is why the Ukraine president is asking for NATO to enforce a no fly zone, which won’t happen.

In WWII the German’s went into Poland with about the same number of troops as the Polish defence force, except that the German’s had vastly more mechanised infantry, higher numbers of aircraft and more modern, strong supply lines and speed.

Check out this explanation  -


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## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Interesting stats on how much damage has been done to Russian forces, if you believe them. It looks like they might be in trouble. I initially thought their numbers for the invasion force were a bit light on. In general Army defence theory, you need 3:1 to mount an effective attack against a defending force, so the 120K or so Russians sounded a little light on.
> 
> I still don't understand why that huge column of Russian vehicles (assume it's the logistic tail) backed up NW of Kiev hasn't been taken out by Ukraine missiles or their airforce. A single run of a few jets could have decimated them. Three attack helicopters could have done it. Perhaps air defences around those trucks is pretty solid.
> 
> 
> Article in the Oz:
> Russia's forces decimated, defence chief says​Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, _The Times reports_ the head of Britain’s armed forces saying.
> 
> Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, said Moscow had “got itself into a mess” and that its invasion was “not going well”.
> 
> He also warned that Russia might “turn up the violence” with “more indiscriminate killing” in response to the highly effective Ukrainian resistance.
> 
> As many as 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fierce fighting, according to the latest approximate figures published by the Ukrainian armed forces on Sunday.
> 
> An estimated 44 aircraft, 285 tanks, 985 armoured vehicles, 109 artillery systems and 60 fuel tanks have also been destroyed. Admiral Radakin said the Kremlin had lost more troops in a week than the UK did in 20 years in Afghanistan.
> 
> He also said that the morale of the invading soldiers had been knocked so badly that some had abandoned the convoy destined for Kyiv to camp in the forest.
> 
> – The Times



To be honest, this is propaganda going on both way.you never know the truth until much later.
I just look at what towns are clearly..aka live report..under control by one or the other side.
And yes, Russians will probably flatten the entry points if west keep sending weapons there..to ensure no supply and we will then shout how criminal Putin is..
Obviously, doing the same in irak a few decades ago was welfare😊
Sickening indeed
hopefully this will stop soon one way or the other but do not expect the us, NATO or EU to go for peace


----------



## frugal.rock

againsthegrain said:


> With the long convoys



Had thought there were reports the convoy were partly out of fuel and rations.
Nothing like a mob of desperate hungry soldiers  to start questioning the rationale of the "boss".
Other reports had ruski soldiers looting supermarkets and pharmacies. Don't sound well organised to me.
Reeks of desperation really.

Sidenote, those US dirtbags...(not the only ones doing it either)
U.S. bank JPMorgan suggests clients buy distressed Russian bonds​








						Russian distressed bonds could be scooped up, some touting deep discounts on loans
					

Beaten-down Russian assets are looking attractive to some, with JPMorgan strategists touting the bonds of Russian companies with significant international operations as the best way to profit from distressed pricing, while two banking sources said that loans of Russian corporates had been...




					www.reuters.com
				




Oh, doesn't surprise me that JPMorgan has opened hitting a 52 week low this morning...
Bar Stewards


----------



## Dona Ferentes

frugal.rock said:


> Had thought there were reports the convoy were partly out of fuel and rations.
> 
> Sidenote, those US dirtbags...(not the only ones doing it either)



and soon they won't even be able to use the local drive-through for provisions

*Pressure is growing on Western food and drink giants to pull out of Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.*


> _McDonald's and Coca-Cola have been criticised on social media for failing to speak out about the attacks and_ _*continuing to operate in the country*_...



A US pension fund was _urging them to review their businesses in Russia because they face "significant and growing legal, compliance, operational, human rights and personnel, and reputational risks"_.









						McDonald's and Coca-Cola boycott calls grow over Russia
					

Food and drink giants have been criticised on social media for failing to speak out on Ukraine's invasion.



					www.bbc.com
				




If this keeps up, we'll have a bifurcated world.

Liberal democracies on one side, desperately trying to reconfigure supply lines and adjust to the inflation/ stagflation (and not commit our young to senseless slaughter)
the neo-USSR and China on the other; one supplying raw materials and food , with the other providing manufactured goods
and then there'll be the teeming masses, food deficit and dollar a day places, that will hemorrhage their educated ones who will flee to somewhere that offers opportunity (_chose from the above, 1 or 2, folks_)


----------



## frugal.rock

Dona Ferentes said:


> (_chose from the above, 1 or 2, folks_)



Not sure there will be a choice anymore...
I think your bang on with all 3, all together.
It was free "choice" that has lead the west to this point.

Shame about Maccas and Cola...
Maybe they need more Maccas, convoy decoys... knock em off with coronaries. 😩
I don't feel humerous being humerous about this situation... Ow chihuahua.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> and soon they won't even be able to use the local drive-through for provisions
> 
> *Pressure is growing on Western food and drink giants to pull out of Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.*
> 
> A US pension fund was _urging them to review their businesses in Russia because they face "significant and growing legal, compliance, operational, human rights and personnel, and reputational risks"_.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> McDonald's and Coca-Cola boycott calls grow over Russia
> 
> 
> Food and drink giants have been criticised on social media for failing to speak out on Ukraine's invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If this keeps up, we'll have a bifurcated world.
> 
> Liberal democracies on one side, desperately trying to reconfigure supply lines and adjust to the inflation/ stagflation (and not commit our young to senseless slaughter)
> the neo-USSR and China on the other; one supplying raw materials and food , with the other providing manufactured goods
> and then there'll be the teeming masses, food deficit and dollar a day places, that will hemorrhage their educated ones who will flee to somewhere that offers opportunity (_chose from the above, 1 or 2, folks_)



This particular part of the world, Ukraine, Russia with Istanbul has been in foment for 1500 years and it all goes back to the Fall of Rome and the movement East of the Christian Church. 

I believe that all three entities will long outlast Coca Cola and McDonalds just as Turkish bread is not really Turkish bread. 

Roger Crowley has a good book on it, 1453: _The Holy War for Constantinople and the Clash of Islam and the West._ which is pertinent to the present conflict but does not mention takeaways nor drive through eateries which flourished in Pompeii. 

I will digress no further. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> To be honest, this is propaganda going on both way.you never know the truth until much later.



I agree, there’s mis and dis-information going on and always would be from all sides. But the article I pasted up was quoting the UK Chief of Defence Staff. I suppose Tony Blair said there were WMD in Iraq too…


----------



## qldfrog

Dona Ferentes said:


> and soon they won't even be able to use the local drive-through for provisions
> 
> *Pressure is growing on Western food and drink giants to pull out of Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.*
> 
> A US pension fund was _urging them to review their businesses in Russia because they face "significant and growing legal, compliance, operational, human rights and personnel, and reputational risks"_.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> McDonald's and Coca-Cola boycott calls grow over Russia
> 
> 
> Food and drink giants have been criticised on social media for failing to speak out on Ukraine's invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If this keeps up, we'll have a bifurcated world.
> 
> Liberal democracies on one side, desperately trying to reconfigure supply lines and adjust to the inflation/ stagflation (and not commit our young to senseless slaughter)
> the neo-USSR and China on the other; one supplying raw materials and food , with the other providing manufactured goods
> and then there'll be the teeming masses, food deficit and dollar a day places, that will hemorrhage their educated ones who will flee to somewhere that offers opportunity (_chose from the above, 1 or 2, folks_)



I agree, just that the liberal democracies you mentionned will be the Reset ones and will not have much left of the freedom and human rights  models we were born with.
I know that preventing access to unjab in 2022 to a cafe, forbidding Australians to leave their country for 3y or seizing assets of individuals based on (Russian) nationality..are exactly the type of actions  we rightly accused USSR and dictatorships just a few decades ago.
Not even talking propaganda,brain washing...here in the West..
FFS even Switzerland has broken neutrality...
Poor of us.


----------



## bluekelah

Sean K said:


> Interesting stats on how much damage has been done to Russian forces, if you believe them. It looks like they might be in trouble. I initially thought their numbers for the invasion force were a bit light on. In general Army defence theory, you need 3:1 to mount an effective attack against a defending force, so the 120K or so Russians sounded a little light on.
> 
> I still don't understand why that huge column of Russian vehicles (assume it's the logistic tail) backed up NW of Kiev hasn't been taken out by Ukraine missiles or their airforce. A single run of a few jets could have decimated them. Three attack helicopters could have done it. Perhaps air defences around those trucks is pretty solid.
> 
> 
> Article in the Oz:
> Russia's forces decimated, defence chief says​Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, _The Times reports_ the head of Britain’s armed forces saying.
> 
> Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, said Moscow had “got itself into a mess” and that its invasion was “not going well”.
> 
> He also warned that Russia might “turn up the violence” with “more indiscriminate killing” in response to the highly effective Ukrainian resistance.
> 
> As many as 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fierce fighting, according to the latest approximate figures published by the Ukrainian armed forces on Sunday.
> 
> An estimated 44 aircraft, 285 tanks, 985 armoured vehicles, 109 artillery systems and 60 fuel tanks have also been destroyed. Admiral Radakin said the Kremlin had lost more troops in a week than the UK did in 20 years in Afghanistan.
> 
> He also said that the morale of the invading soldiers had been knocked so badly that some had abandoned the convoy destined for Kyiv to camp in the forest.
> 
> – The Times




Its all Ukrainian propaganda. Russia has full control on the airspace over Ukraine. They have dropped paratroopers very early on to take all the key airbases. Ukrainians only have half the tanks the Russians have. In modern warfare you dont need that many ground troops to take out the opposition if you have tanks and air support.

Russians want to take Ukraine intact with as much infrastructure as possibly so that they can put in a pro-RUssian gov as well as station troops and weapons along the Ukrainian border with poland/romania (thats where the 2 aegis ashore ICBM "defense" systems from NATO/USA are located, and have tomahawk nuclear missile capability within range of Russia)

So far the main Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plan was captured recently with some damage but still safe and  functional. 








						Russian military control of Ukraine nuclear plants cause for grave concern, nuclear energy agency warns
					

Reports that Ukraine’s, and Europe’s, largest nuclear power plant is under the control of Russian forces is a cause for grave concern, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, said on Sunday.




					news.un.org
				




Russian control water supply too. Push come to shove they dont have to bomb anything, just turn off the water for a week and that's it.


----------



## bluekelah

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This particular part of the world, Ukraine, Russia with Istanbul has been in foment for 1500 years and it all goes back to the Fall of Rome and the movement East of the Christian Church.
> 
> I believe that all three entities will long outlast Coca Cola and McDonalds just as Turkish bread is not really Turkish bread.
> 
> Roger Crowley has a good book on it, 1453: _The Holy War for Constantinople and the Clash of Islam and the West._ which is pertinent to the present conflict but does not mention takeaways nor drive through eateries which flourished in Pompeii.
> 
> I will digress no further.
> 
> gg




Look up the history of the Kievan Rus  
Makes for an interesting read.


----------



## Do you feel lucky

Anyone know how I can buy Russian shares and bonds? I‘m Australian but still want in. Commsec doesn’t do them ,neither do most brokers I have rung.


----------



## Do you feel lucky

Sorry! Russian and ruble -denominated too.


----------



## Sean K

While they may win the battle in Ukraine, with the US and Britain now boycotting Russian oil, along with all other sanctions, there’s every chance Russia’s economy will completely collapse in the near future and they will be in dire straights for decades. This will be the model the West will use against the CCP when they try to take Taiwan by force. It could be the end of Putin and then Xi. While globalization has potentially allowed this current conflict to be even contemplated due to EUs reliance on Russian energy, it’s also similar globalization factors that will destroy the aggressors.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> While they may win the battle in Ukraine, with the US and Britain now boycotting Russian oil, along with all other sanctions, there’s every chance Russia’s economy will completely collapse in the near future and they will be in dire straights for decades. This will be the model the West will use against the CCP when they try to take Taiwan by force. It could be the end of Putin and then Xi. While globalization has potentially allowed this current conflict to be even contemplated due to EUs reliance on Russian energy, it’s also similar globalization factors that will destroy the aggressors.



Ahhh Sean you are a dreamer.and it is good in a way but please do not apply that thinking to your portfolio now for your own sake.
How is the S&P going?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Do you feel lucky said:


> Anyone know how I can buy Russian shares and bonds? I‘m Australian but still want in. Commsec doesn’t do them ,neither do most brokers I have rung.





Do you feel lucky said:


> Sorry! Russian and ruble -denominated too.



You can't at the moment as their stock exchange is closed and brokers here and in in the USA are presently not allowed trade with Russia.

Some of the bigger gamblers than you and I are buying Russian debt or outstanding loans but it is a nietzeche market.

gg


----------



## Sean K

I don't think Russia is going to like this. This is a little different to a few anti-armour and air defence missiles.

In the AFR:
Poland bolsters Ukraine airforce with Russian planes​Timothy Moore

Poland said it will give all of its Russian made MiG-29 military jets to the US in Germany, with the objective that they will be given to Ukraine.

“The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.

“At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.

“The Polish government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MiG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.”

Poland has 21 single-seat MiG-29s and 6 twin-seat MiG-29s, according to Janes World Air Forces.


----------



## qldfrog

The west decides to ban oil from Russian, so we will walk all more..
But our heath crusade does not stop there:





All what Biden puppeteers want is not crushing the last Reset opposition or sell US shale, or even just finding a new blame distraction after covid.
They want an healthier world:
No car for you..EVs for them, and no food for most..even Indians and Chinese are getting fat, and healthy sportmen dying on the sport fields after their life saving shots..
Must be the diet.
Let's get a good famine
...


----------



## waterbottle

RE: Price of oil...









						Putin Signs Decree To Ban Exports Of Raw Materials, Commodities | OilPrice.com
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that institutes special economic measures that will be in effect until the end of this year




					oilprice.com
				




Sort of expected with oil, but what about other commodities? Fertilizers to the moon?


----------



## Do you feel lucky

Garpal Gumnut said:


> You can't at the moment as their stock exchange is closed and brokers here and in in the USA are presently not allowed trade with Russia.
> 
> Some of the bigger gamblers than you and I are buying Russian debt or outstanding loans but it is a nietzeche market.
> 
> gg



Ahh.typical. Leave the little guy out and all the bigwigs cleanup on the side ; through cutouts and a web of front companies. Makes you sick.

See how Shell was  caught buying oil and now will cough it up for the Ukraine refugees? One rule for the guys at the top , and one rule for the common people.

Thanks for answering.


----------



## Sean K

We're getting close to the end of this invasion, IMO. Once Kiev is surrounded, it will be a siege and Russia can wait it out with their logistic trail back to Russia kicking in and Kiev locked out of international support. Unless the West create a corridor to the SW for aid and equipment resupply. But, that will take air and ground support to get it through, so maybe unlikely. 

Russia have completely miscalculated on this misadventure, including the value of hand held anti-tank missiles and the resolve of the Ukrainian people. The statements of the Russian representative at the UN today is laughable. 

My initial assessment of this was that Russia just wants the eastern side of Ukraine from Kharkiv down to Odessa and have total control of the north Black Sea coast line. Once they negotiate that as part of a cease fire, it might stop. I just doubt Ukraine will give it up.


----------



## waterbottle

Sean K said:


> We're getting close to the end of this invasion, IMO. Once Kiev is surrounded, it will be a siege and Russia can wait it out with their logistic trail back to Russia kicking in and Kiev locked out of international support. Unless the West create a corridor to the SW for aid and equipment resupply. But, that will take air and ground support to get it through, so maybe unlikely.
> 
> Russia have completely miscalculated on this misadventure, including the value of hand held anti-tank missiles and the resolve of the Ukrainian people. The statements of the Russian representative at the UN today is laughable.
> 
> My initial assessment of this was that Russia just wants the eastern side of Ukraine from Kharkiv down to Odessa and have total control of the north Black Sea coast line. Once they negotiate that as part of a cease fire, it might stop. I just doubt Ukraine will give it up.
> 
> View attachment 138951




If Kiev falls then all of Ukraine will fall. It's hard to imagine them keep reserves in other less important parts of the country than the capital.

Not too sure what people expected out of Russia.
This is modern warfare against a modernised military with the logistics of the entire Western advanced militarised behind them. The last time there was a war at this level was literally WW2 Germany v. Britain.

If the country falls in less than a month then that's a major success for the Russians.


----------



## Sean K

waterbottle said:


> If Kiev falls then all of Ukraine will fall. It's hard to imagine them keep reserves in other less important parts of the country than the capital.
> 
> Not too sure what people expected out of Russia.
> This is modern warfare against a modernised military with the logistics of the entire Western advanced militarised behind them. The last time there was a war at this level was literally WW2 Germany v. Britain.
> 
> If the country falls in less than a month then that's a major success for the Russians.




Most probably.

There's no significant enough justification for Russia to invade a sovereign nation and kill innocent civilians and destroy billions in infrastructure. These are war crimes. 

The Ukraine leader speaks like he's not going to give in at all. So, they might become a 'government in exile'. I can't believe the western side of 'ethic Ukrainians' is going to give in. They significantly voted against pro-Russia at the last election. 

The turning point in WW2 was the USA being forced into it, in both Europe and the Pacific. Let's hope there's no tipping point here.


----------



## Value Collector

Sean K said:


> Most probably.
> 
> There's no significant enough justification for Russia to invade a sovereign nation and kill innocent civilians and destroy billions in infrastructure. These are war crimes.
> 
> The Ukraine leader speaks like he's not going to give in at all. So, they might become a 'government in exile'. I can't believe the western side of 'ethic Ukrainians' is going to give in. They significantly voted against pro-Russia at the last election.
> 
> The turning point in WW2 was the USA being forced into it, in both Europe and the Pacific. Let's hope there's no tipping point here.



There is a chance it could evolve into a long term Partisan / insurgency, not that I hope for that, I think Russian would begin targeting innocent civilians even more then.

But I can’t see the Ukrainian people accepting occupation by Russia, and if a Rebel group armed with modern weapons can continue a fight, it will be very expensive for Russia the longer they stay.

I think Putin needs to save face, so eventually it has to get to a point where he can claim some sort of victory politically and then he will probably back off, but only time will tell.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> _.... What there isn't here in Kharkiv, is any surprise at the Russian attack. "Since 2014 we knew they would come, maybe in a year, 10 years, or 1,000 years, but we knew they would come"...._












						Ukraine war: On the front line of the battle for Kharkiv
					

Quentin Sommerville and cameraman Darren Conway are with Ukrainian forces fighting to stop the Russian advance on the country's second city.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Sean K

Value Collector said:


> There is a chance it could evolve into a long term Partisan / insurgency, not that I hope for that, I think Russian would begin targeting innocent civilians even more then.
> 
> But I can’t see the Ukrainian people accepting occupation by Russia, and if a Rebel group armed with modern weapons can continue a fight, it will be very expensive for Russia the longer they stay.
> 
> I think Putin needs to save face, so eventually it has to get to a point where he can claim some sort of victory politically and then he will probably back off, but only time will tell.




Yes, that will most likely be the case, but will result in Ukraine just keeping the left hand side of their county. Vlad has gone all in on this one. Anything less than taking the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine will be failure, IMO.


----------



## qldfrog

Poor Ukraine innocent angel attacked by bad russians
https://panatimes.com/26-biological...oratories-in-ukraine-fell-to-the-russian-army
An haven of peace.
I hope it is not true but doubt it
And wish our leaders will act like Putin if Indonesia builds 26 bioweapon labs at our borders


----------



## qldfrog

Never miss an opportunity for a bit of antisemitism:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...y-he-helped-russian-billionaire-idUSKCN2L82IF
What was wrong with helping a russian a year ago?
Racist bunches of puppets


----------



## divs4ever

waterbottle said:


> RE: Price of oil...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin Signs Decree To Ban Exports Of Raw Materials, Commodities | OilPrice.com
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that institutes special economic measures that will be in effect until the end of this year
> 
> 
> 
> 
> oilprice.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sort of expected with oil, but what about other commodities? Fertilizers to the moon?



 considering the global fertilizer shortage   BEFORE  this  was because of high gas prices AND Russian bank transactions  are even more restricted NOW  

 the sensible option would be ' we will sell you fertilizer at commercial rates paid in physical gold ( on delivery ) '

 don't you worry in many cases only SELECTED nations  have been put on the banned export list  for several commodities ( including silver )

for other nations existing contracts will be honored


----------



## IFocus

John Mauldin makes this point

"
At the same time, some of this is outside US control. A small example: Ukraine produces about 70% of the world’s neon gas exports. While neon signs are now mostly antiques, it is a crucial component in semiconductor production. That kind of neon gas has to be refined to ultra-high purity. Two-thirds of it comes from a single factory in Odesa, Ukraine. Furthermore, the kind of ships that can carry that gas aren’t super common and could become even less so if someone gets trigger-happy in the Black Sea.

 If those neon shipments should stop, analysts say global chipmakers probably have about eight weeks’ supply on hand. Then what?"


----------



## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some of the bigger gamblers than you and I are buying Russian debt or outstanding loans but it is a nietzeche market.
> 
> gg



Subtle, obtuse even, but interesting point LMAO.


----------



## StockyGuy

wayneL said:


> Subtle, obtuse even, but interesting point LMAO.




Yeah I was trying to work out the nietzeche reference, I gotta say.  Niche, boutique investment opportunities for the Nietzschean financial Übermensch, maybe.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

StockyGuy said:


> Yeah I was trying to work out the nietzeche reference, I gotta say.  Niche, boutique investment opportunities for the Nietzschean financial Übermensch, maybe.



" the noise of the great actors, and the buzzing of the poison-flies."​


----------



## qldfrog

Dona Ferentes said:


> " the noise of the great actors, and the buzzing of the poison-flies."​



Always increasing culture...LOL
Has anyone found any decent source of info on this conflict: Reuters has 10 PR from the Ukraine gov before 2 from Biden and one on the weather...BBC local ABC etc usual wokeness.
And not sure Chinese news could be trusted either.
Aljazeera?


----------



## StockyGuy

Dona Ferentes said:


> " the noise of the great actors, and the buzzing of the poison-flies."​




Speaking of TSZ, your King Lear signature quote, "_A most poor man, made tame to Fortune's blows", reminds of the TSZ line:  '_"If thou speakest the truth,” said he, “I lose nothing when I lose my life. I am not much more than an animal which hath been taught to dance by blows and scanty fare.”'


----------



## IFocus

So a global recession is baked in them?


----------



## moXJO

Another interesting thing was Russia taking all the stock and equipment of multinationals trying to leave. Not sure if the idea was to continue running the business under a different name. But if China did something similar I wonder how it would affect those companies.


----------



## investtrader

Sean K said:


> Yes, that will most likely be the case, but will result in Ukraine just keeping the left hand side of their county. Vlad has gone all in on this one. Anything less than taking the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine will be failure, IMO.



Why do you call him Vlad? We don't call Hitler, Adolf? I see other headlines in newspapers also do this - at least the trashy papers. It humanizes a grotesque, murderous monster.


----------



## Stockbailx

Hope I'm not of the subject here. Putin certainly a Vlad f^#@*Stick. What ever effect this war and sanctions has on the stock market I don't know, but certainly having a effect on commodity's like oil and gold. (No room for cowards)
I figure that since US Nato refuse to help Ukraine,  with troops and airplanes, ships etc, because there's WW3... Well that just sucks, cowards at their best...Feel for the Ukrainian citizens...Found a interesting tweet on twitter that sums it up well...


----------



## Dona Ferentes

investtrader said:


> Why do you call him Vlad? We don't call Hitler, Adolf... It humanizes a grotesque, murderous monster.



A bit like "Uncle Joe" Stalin. Part fear, part irony.


----------



## JohnDe

> *Inside the twisted mind of Vladmir Putin*
> _It seems crazy, but the ‘tsar’ has long dreamed of restoring Russia’s empire — and now he’s started, he cannot afford to lose._
> 
> Is Vladimir Putin out of his mind? As their savage invasion of Ukraine began a third week, Russian forces deliberately bombed a maternity and children’s hospital in the southern city of Mariupol. Last week, they attacked a nuclear power plant. The Ukrainian government accuses Moscow of using illegal thermobaric bombs, vacuum bombs, which suck the oxygen even out of people’s lungs.
> 
> Evacuation routes for civilians fleeing the heavy fighting in Mariupol have been repeatedly agreed, then shelled when terrified women and children try to escape.
> 
> International sanctions have crippled the Russian economy, crashed the rouble, caused a flight of capital. Russian oligarchs have lost tens of billions of dollars. Civilised nations won’t let Russian planes enter their air space. Moscow has created the biggest European refugee crisis since World War II. US intelligence thinks Putin might be about to use chemical weapons.
> 
> On the battlefield, Russia’s forces have been humiliated by a much smaller, less well-equipped Ukrainian military enjoying overwhelming civilian support.
> 
> But Putin cannot afford to lose. In Russian history, losing a war normally leads to government collapse and often the ruler’s assassination. The Russian government is now a one-man show. All power resides in Putin, the most comprehensive personal dictatorship since Josef Stalin. Only Xi Jinping of China wields a similar degree of absolute control in a big nation.
> 
> Putin has re-established not the Cold War, but the pre-Cold War norm that major powers invade other nations for conquest and territory, and population. Putin has even threatened the use of nuclear weapons.
> 
> US senator Marco Rubio thinks Putin is deranged. Former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, who met him many times, thinks he has changed. Previously, Putin was cool and calculated; now he’s erratic and delusional.
> 
> The televised kabuki performance Putin had his national security council put on, in which they all advised him to be tougher, from across a vast room (like Xi and Donald Trump, Putin is a germaphobe), not only looked weird but seemed false and clumsy, unlike most of Putin’s theatricality.
> 
> But this analysis is surely overdone. Putin has miscalculated in Ukraine. He thought his military stronger, Ukraine weaker, and the West more divided. But these are mistakes leaders, especially dictators who seldom get disagreeable advice, sometimes make. There is no reason to think Putin mad, even unbalanced. He’s always been a gambler. The next few weeks could be terrible, as the main military tactic left is simply to bomb and shell Ukrainian cities, repeatedly if not relentlessly, to cut off food, water and power, and effectively starve and murder the population into submission.
> 
> While Putin cannot afford to lose, perhaps he can compromise, using that word loosely, to describe a situation where he keeps a chunk of Ukraine but stops fighting. Putin is intensely unpredictable but he is not irrational and the Ukraine campaign lies at the very heart of his long-held ideological world view. It was predictable, and he himself often predicted it.
> 
> That world view is very particular and sees Russia as the centre of a Eurasian empire. It relies on a theory called Traditionalism, which rejects modernism and every aspect of Western liberalism, especially the West itself. This ideology is most clearly expressed in the writings of Aleksandr Dugin, who has prospered as a public sage under Putin. Dugin’s exotic views have earned him the label of Putin’s Rasputin (a mad mystic whose influence on the family of the last tsar, Nicholas II, was wholly baleful).
> 
> More of Dugin below, but Putin of course is nobody’s puppet and embodies many distinctive influences. Putin, now 69, was born in St Petersburg, studied law and went into the KGB. He rose to lieutenant-colonel and served in East Germany.
> 
> After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin became active in St Petersburg politics. He has said the chief lesson he learnt there was that if there’s going to be a fight, make sure you hit first.
> 
> He was briefly in charge of intelligence services, then rose like a rocket to become prime minister, then president. He has been the boss of Russia for 20 years. That brings its own psychological baggage. Democratic leaders have told me they think people go a bit mad if they stay in the top job too long. That’s particularly so for dictators. As they grow older they seek a special place in history and become ever more paranoid. Numerous tsars were killed by ambitious rivals. Putin has no obvious succession plan. He has two daughters and may have a couple of sons, but none is involved in Russian politics or public life.
> 
> Putin is careful to look after his personal security detail. A number have become very wealthy. But the isolation, the gnawing paranoia, the eschatological date with history, these are the dark and lonely reaches of absolute power, which no human being is meant for.
> 
> Putin has said the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. He was an orthodox communist, but this expresses nostalgia not for communism, which Putin routinely criticises or dismisses these days, but rather for the Russian empire embodied in the Soviet Union.
> 
> Dugin is an important expression of the dominant ideology of the Putin era, but Putin emerges out of a much broader tradition. That is the long history, the dark forest, of Russian nationalism and cultural hubris.
> 
> Russia is a paradox because it is indeed one of the greatest cultures. Fyodor Dostoevsky and Leo Tolstoy were perhaps the supreme novelists in any language. Life could not be complete without the melancholy sweetness of Tchaikovsky’s music. The Thief, a film made in Russia’s brief post-communist freedom, surely rates among the finest of all films.
> 
> But this culture is also self-obsessed and self-regarding. Russian Orthodox Christianity is a treasure of spiritual depth and theological insight. But its view of the rest of Christianity is tied up in its tangled relationship with Russian nationalism.
> 
> It considers itself the third Rome, and the true Rome. After the fall of Rome, in this view, Christianity was carried on in the Byzantine Empire. Constantinople (Istanbul) was the second Rome. Now Moscow is Byzantine’s rightful heir, the third Rome, the true Rome. Yet the Russian Orthodox Church has also always been the tsar’s chaplain.
> 
> Putin is much more a modern tsar than a modern communist like China’s Xi.
> 
> The tsars themselves, both the occasional liberal reformers and the aloof autocrats, resided at the heart of Russian cultural self-obsession and hostility to the West.
> 
> Dostoevsky was the supreme Christian novelist of the 19th century. His Christian vision was transcendent, at times sublime. The most Christ-like character in all Dostoevsky’s novels, Prince Myshkin, surely gives expression to Dostoevsky’s own views when he declares: “Our Christ must shine forth in opposition to the West … Catholicism is no more than an unchristian faith, it is not a faith but a continuation of the Holy Roman Empire.”
> 
> That last is an astonishing comment, given that the Holy Roman Empire hadn’t by then (1869) been powerful for hundreds of years. But that paranoid style, retaining grievance over hundreds of years, seeing enemies where none exist, that is characteristic of Russian culture both at the elite and the popular levels.
> 
> These qualities animate the mind of Vladimir Putin. He must have espoused atheism when a KGB colonel, but since ruling Russia he funds the Russian Orthodox Church and is happy to be filmed participating in its services on feast days.
> 
> Putin is said to own luxury yachts and enjoy living very well. But the Russian population never sees any debauchery from him. He is proud of his physical fitness and his private life is entirely private.
> 
> Putin may or may not hold any religious belief himself but he is in many ways a traditional tsarist leader. This tradition pays no lip service to Western liberalism.
> 
> I attended a lunch with Putin at the Sydney APEC summit in 2007. He told a long, and it must be said very funny, joke about what a fool Alexander Kerensky was. Kerensky was the social democrat leader the Russian communists deposed in 1917. Kerensky lived for a time in Brisbane in the 1940s. What Putin thought bizarre was that he formed a romantic liaison with a journalist. Putin thought this contemptible, grotesque, in any political leader. Putin went on and on about it. At the time it seemed funny enough, but odd. Looking back, I can’t imagine any other leader behaving that way.
> 
> Most dictators would ignore the press, democrats would celebrate it or josh it or whinge about it. Dictators pretending to be democrats would pretend to tolerate the media. Putin was none of those things. In expressing contempt for the press, in this case humorously, he was giving an early sign of the contempt in which he held all the norms of Western liberalism.
> 
> There is no better insight into the strategic mind of Putin than the book (which admittedly has a pretty wordy title): The American Empire Should be Destroyed – Aleksandr Dugin and the Perils of Immanentized Eschatology, by James Heiser, a Lutheran bishop in the US.
> 
> Dugin is a Russian political activist, university professor, prolific author and public commentator of great note. He has been a formal and informal adviser to several figures in the Russian leadership. Some of the things he says are truly bizarre and Putin doesn’t repeat those. But there is a deep continuity and overlap between Dugin’s writings and Putin’s recent long essay on why Russia and Ukraine are the one people, the one “spiritual space”.
> 
> There is no way Dugin could be as prominent as he is if Putin didn’t approve, and there is ample evidence that Putin, whom Dugin supports with wild enthusiasm, takes Dugin very seriously.
> 
> Dugin has written many books, but changed his fundamental views little over the years. A typical Dugin passage reads: “When there is only one power which decides who is right and who is wrong, and who should be punished and who not, we have a form of global dictatorship. This is not acceptable. Therefore, we should fight against it. If someone deprives us of our freedom, we have to react. And we will react. The American Empire should be destroyed. And at one point, it will be. Spiritually, globalisation is the creation of a grand parody, the kingdom of the Antichrist. And the United States is the centre of its expansion.”
> 
> For a time, Dugin was an anti-communist but he came to support the Soviet Union not long before it collapsed. He also sees good in Nazism, especially its paganism and its rejection of modernity, though of course he condemns its wildest excesses and certainly its war against Russia. Like many Nazis, he is obsessed with the occult.
> 
> He believes Russia is protected by a specific good angel, that every nation has its assigned angel. Russia’s angel is at war with the West’s angel.
> 
> Dugin is a member of the Russian Orthodox Church but has a very eccentric view of Christianity. He embraces Traditionalism, which he holds shows that traditional human life, which is decent and good, comes from primordial traditions which pre-date modernism, which is evil. He has a pretty arbitrary selection of some religions as OK – Russian Orthodox Christianity, Islam, Buddhism and a few others – and some as fraudulent and twisted, especially Catholicism and Protestantism.
> 
> He believes the good religions can all live side-by-side. More than that, he thinks all Russians are automatically Russian Orthodox. It doesn’t matter whether they go to church or not. The church is a kind of accompanying minor theme in the symphony of Russian nationalism. This ideology is immensely chauvinist, but not exactly racist. A nation is defined by cultural unity rather than race.
> 
> One of the things Dugin hates most about the West is its stress on individual rights. Peoples have rights, in Dugin’s view, but individual people do not. The society has rights; individuals do not have rights.
> 
> Dugin glorifies violence and the violent assertion of culture and national destiny.
> 
> Dugin also espouses the long-held Russian doctrine of Eurasianism. He sees the Eurasian culture as land-based, wholesome and good, and the Atlantic culture as sea-based, decadent and corrupt. He erects an enormous theological and philosophical sub-structure behind all this, but the bottom line is that Moscow should rule a Eurasian empire running from Western Europe all the way through central Asia and beyond.
> 
> Putin, following Dugin but also of course interpreting him freely, sees Ukraine and Belarus as the absolute minimum he must reclaim for Russia. Their addition would make Russia a nation of 200 million, and an even more vast geographical behemoth. Putin sometimes calls his opponents Nazis, as he grotesquely labels the Jewish President of Ukraine, but Putin has himself become a hero for the far right in the West. The right is always inclined to fall for a strongman leader. Putin funds, and thereby compromises and corrupts, the Russian Orthodox Church. He despises Western liberalism, the failings of which also distress Western conservatives. Putin promotes traditional values, as Dugin also claims to do within his bizarre world view. So before invading Ukraine, Putin had a lot of fans on the far right.
> 
> Dugin’s writings are a rich and weird compendium of often frightening conspiracies and speculations and they certainly exist at the extremes of Russian nationalism. There are countless milder versions than Dugin.
> 
> But the final element of Dugin’s theories which ought to give concern is his conviction that these are the “end days” and that a mighty battle between Russian Eurasia and the vile West is at hand. Putin is much smarter and more practical than Dugin. But this ideological impulse – to hate the West, to see anti-Russian conspiracies everywhere, to reclaim territory for Russia and favour violence – are all evident in the mind and actions of the Russian leader.
> 
> As Dugin says, chaos can think.


----------



## qldfrog

Yo


Stockybailz said:


> Hope I'm not of the subject here. Putin certainly a Vlad f^#@*Stick. What ever effect this war and sanctions has on the stock market I don't know, but certainly having a effect on commodity's like oil and gold. (No room for cowards)
> I figure that since US Nato refuse to help Ukraine,  with troops and airplanes, ships etc, because there's WW3... Well that just sucks, cowards at their best...Feel for the Ukrainian citizens...Found a interesting tweet on twitter that sums it up well...
> 
> View attachment 139012



U forgot the ones who pushed the whole lot 
read Henri Kissinger and Friedman about the Ukraine issue a year or so ago .
unless these two are Putin puppets?
Anyway, we saw how propaganda work during Covid, now Ukrainians are dying for point scoring.
Why do you think it happens now and not during Trump?
After all, Trump was so bad and crazy
If you feel so willing, go and join the freedom fighters.nothing and noone prevent you..
In a war, Ukraine, Syria, Irak, whatever NEVER trust any of the two sides, and learn history past and recent, it usually explains a lot.
And yes civilians are paying while innocent and it is a tragedy,i would also add the soldiers from both sides..no one deserves to die at 20, well few...


----------



## Stockbailx

Here's one for you, what would happen to Uranium prices, should the so called WW3 erupt. I say lets have it! Nip the dirty Russian conquest to rule the world in the bud. Put nuclear warfare to bed. Teach leaders like Putin, & Biden not to use Nuclear weapons and put that theory to bed once and for all...it wouldn't be to much to ask...I might sound like a bit of a glory fighter, but why not...
I must admit I don't know much about what's behind the Russian Invasion and the things leading up to it but, it may have been prevented or successful for Ukraine had Nato been appointed to protect Ukraine. ( Fight on Ukraine, Nato put Putin on his arse, and in his place on a death bed, then there will be world peace! )...


----------



## Dona Ferentes

@JohnDe  ..as I don't subscribe to _The Australian_, could you please identify the author? It sounds like Greg Sheridan.


----------



## JohnDe

Dona Ferentes said:


> @JohnDe  ..as I don't subscribe to _The Australian_, could you please identify the author? It sounds like Greg Sheridan.




Yes, GREG SHERIDAN FOREIGN EDITOR


----------



## divs4ever

i tend to agree  ... seems to all theatre to me


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> Always increasing culture...LOL
> Has anyone found any decent source of info on this conflict: Reuters has 10 PR from the Ukraine gov before 2 from Biden and one on the weather...BBC local ABC etc usual wokeness.
> And not sure Chinese news could be trusted either.
> Aljazeera?



in my opinion   the best sources  are those mad  bloggers and Tik Tok providers  , both sides clearly have a bias this time 

 and because the independent ( live-streamers ) are so rare on the ground THIS TIME ( this is NOT Afghanistan  , with hardly any civil infrastructure )

 one would be very tempted to veer towards the Russian  explanation ( allowing for the bias of course )  that this is more of a 'police action'  teamed up with sieges on selected cities


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> in my opinion   the best sources  are those mad  bloggers and Tik Tok providers  , both sides clearly have a bias this time
> 
> and because the independent ( live-streamers ) are so rare on the ground THIS TIME ( this is NOT Afghanistan  , with hardly any civil infrastructure )
> 
> one would be very tempted to veer towards the Russian  explanation ( allowing for the bias of course )  that this is more of a 'police action'  teamed up with sieges on selected cities





Besieged residents of Mariupol fight over last food and fuel

The Observer view on Russia’s crimes against humanity in Ukraine

Millions of Ukrainians welcomed as refugees of Russia's invasion spark goodwill in EU

Russia-Ukraine live news: Base near Polish border attacked

Russia-Ukraine war in numbers: casualties, refugees and aid


----------



## divs4ever

ever seen the aftermath of a drug raid in Queensland ( on a rented house ) 

 a friend could show you some SCARY angles on that (  he was the home owner )

 ( the house was demolished and sold  as part of a  shopping centre development )

 so when i hear of food shortages i just shrug and think of the house and farm-land  under those shops


----------



## StockyGuy

divs4ever said:


> i tend to agree  ... seems to all theatre to me




No doubt lots of theatre in a theatre of war.  But Putin is the monster who gave the word that utterly unnecessarily turned the lives of these "brother Slavs" upside down, killing many already.  All the propaganda, rhetoric, gaslighting, false flags, outlandish claims from ALL actors (pardon the pun) don't change that.


----------



## qldfrog

About this "monster"


StockyGuy said:


> No doubt lots of theatre in a theatre of war.  But Putin is the monster who gave the word that utterly unnecessarily turned the lives of these "brother Slavs" upside down, killing many already.  All the propaganda, rhetoric, gaslighting, false flags, outlandish claims from ALL actors (pardon the pun) don't change that.











						US to UN: Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program - PanaTimes
					

But US to Congress said last week something different. So we do not want to guess, we let you listen to both versions.




					panatimes.com
				



So as i said before, if let s say china was to install missiles 30km from our border and start bio weapons lab there..what would you expert our gov to do?

But you are right..We will probably bend over.
Anyway, i like both Ukrainian and Russian people and they will both suffer..and i blame Biden ,well the masters of that puppet, more than i blame Putin..which i do too...
Try to get your facts from wherever you can and on both sides is all i can suggest.
Hillary was preparing that war near 10y ago.....


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> About this "monster"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US to UN: Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program - PanaTimes
> 
> 
> But US to Congress said last week something different. So we do not want to guess, we let you listen to both versions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> panatimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So as i said before, if let s say china was to install missiles 30km from our border and start bio weapons lab there..what would you expert our gov to do?
> 
> But you are right..We will probably bend over.
> Anyway, i like both Ukrainian and Russian people and they will both suffer..and i blame Biden ,well the masters of that puppet, more than i blame Putin..which i do too...
> Try to get your facts from wherever you can and on both sides is all i can suggest.
> Hillary was preparing that war near 10y ago.....



yes there  will be selective disclosure of the truth from both sides 

 but one FACT remains this conflict turned up at a perfect time to distract  from a collapsing global economy


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> yes there  will be selective disclosure of the truth from both sides
> 
> but one FACT remains this conflict turned up at a perfect time to distract  from a collapsing global economy




Let me get this right, you’re saying that people have orchestrate a war to circumvent the perceived collapse of the global economy?


----------



## bluekelah

qldfrog said:


> Always increasing culture...LOL
> Has anyone found any decent source of info on this conflict: Reuters has 10 PR from the Ukraine gov before 2 from Biden and one on the weather...BBC local ABC etc usual wokeness.
> And not sure Chinese news could be trusted either.
> Aljazeera?



aljazeera can be very pro american at times, but they do have boots on the ground.

I watch this channel WION on youtube, they report most of the facts on both sides. They had an episode talking about Zelensky's mistakes as well showing they are not pro-american that much..


This is my favourite CNN reporter clip, listen what he says from 2:16 onwards... super hilarious....


----------



## StockyGuy

qldfrog said:


> About this "monster"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US to UN: Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program - PanaTimes
> 
> 
> But US to Congress said last week something different. So we do not want to guess, we let you listen to both versions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> panatimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So as i said before, if let s say china was to install missiles 30km from our border and start bio weapons lab there..what would you expert our gov to do?
> 
> But you are right..We will probably bend over.
> Anyway, i like both Ukrainian and Russian people and they will both suffer..and i blame Biden ,well the masters of that puppet, more than i blame Putin..which i do too...
> Try to get your facts from wherever you can and on both sides is all i can suggest.
> Hillary was preparing that war near 10y ago.....




Lol well Ukraine obviously was justified in readying their defences.  They also had the example of Crimea.

Neither the US nor Ukraine had credible designs on taking over Russia, IMO.  Australia's security situation is entirely different, and is kind of a matter unto itself.


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> Let me get this right, you’re saying that people have orchestrate a war to circumvent the perceived collapse of the global economy?



 so it seems several times in the past  , mind you in earlier times  ' the world ' was a much smaller place  because some nations had economies of small impact  ,   so in WW1  the world  was mostly Europe    by the time of WW2  it was mainly Europe , Asia  ( with activities  in Africa  and the Middle East )

now apparently i am not unique in this theory  , it seems several  historians and economists  have similar views


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> so it seems several times in the past  , mind you in earlier times  ' the world ' was a much smaller place  because some nations had economies of small impact  ,   so in WW1  the world  was mostly Europe    by the time of WW2  it was mainly Europe , Asia  ( with activities  in Africa  and the Middle East )
> 
> now apparently i am not unique in this theory  , it seems several  historians and economists  have similar views




Your theory is full of holes.

Firstly you assume that Russian leadership was concerned enough about all countries being affected by a economic collapse that Putin took it upon himself to send in the Russian military to create a war, so as to stop the economy collapsing across the globe. 

Putin hates the west, it’s all documented, he’d enjoy watching the world economy while Russia continued to sell oil & gas.

Yes WWI was mostly Europe, that’s because different countries at different times had been at war with each other for hundreds of years, the war to end all wars was created because various countries had agreements in place to support any that went to war.

WWII saw Japan come in and try take over one part of the world while Germany concentrated on the other. 

Nothing to do with a country trying to stop a world economic collapse. Any suggestion that those wars and the current one is some crazy idea to help the world economy is a poor conspiracy theory.


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> yes there  will be selective disclosure of the truth from both sides
> 
> but one FACT remains this conflict turned up at a perfect time to distract  from a collapsing global economy



Yes COVID scam, Ukraine,then they probably won't need anything and Reset will be complete. 
Mr Xi will probably help with a tapei invasion with years and population/populace will be walking, have trouble to feed itself, RE will collapse
They will have nothing ..but won't be happy


----------



## bluekelah

qldfrog said:


> Yes COVID scam, Ukraine,then they probably won't need anything and Reset will be complete.
> Mr Xi will probably help with a tapei invasion with years and population/populace will be walking, have trouble to feed itself, RE will collapse
> They will have nothing ..but won't be happy



IMHO what is more likely to happen is a repeat of history.
We are already seeing a repeat of Cuban missile crisis in 1962. Back then USA via Turkey pointed nuclear missiles at Russia. In turn Russia pointed nukes at USA via Cuba. Fast forward now USA/NATO via poland and romania has nukes pointed at RUSSIA.  So Russia is invading to try to get  those nuke sites decommisioned. Otherwise Russia will probably ship some nukes to Cuba again and reactivate those old launch sites.

We are also having  inflation now similar the the 1970s great inflation. We will now get double digit inflation globally for sure. This will cause either recession if rates go up to match, OR if they dont, then massive currency devaluation and loss of confidence in all the major fiat currencies. I suspect at some point a big recession will happen followed by years of stagflation as in 1970s. 

Not sure what FED can do, most probably americans will end up having to buy a burger with 100USD.


----------



## qldfrog

Either Reset wins..and that's what our dark leaders want:
currencies replaced by state cryptos, individual freedom gone and a brainless rabbit hutch and shared EV taxi mob of zoombies having VR holiday and eating plant based veg burgers , a united nationless consimer base of slaves anf consuming units for a new world order + China..
Putin was a troublemaker in this scheme and is now gone: either he falls or becomes de facto part of China alliance.
we are heading toward famines and revolts..easily squashed now with drones, control and high tech.
if this fails yes..a 1970 repeat as you state.
Definitively a possibility and in my view a lesser evil
With 10 to 20y of misery anyway.sp so praying i am wrong but so far all going to plan sadly
let's have a thought for current victims ..and the coming ones


----------



## Belli

Day-to-day analysis






						Institute for the Study of War
					






					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## qldfrog

Belli said:


> Day-to-day analysis
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org



Thanks Belli..is it impartial?? Seems good reading across


----------



## wayneL

qldfrog said:


> Either Reset wins..and that's what our dark leaders want:
> currencies replaced by state cryptos, individual freedom gone and a brainless rabbit hutch and shared EV taxi mob of zoombies having VR holiday and eating plant based veg burgers , a united nationless consimer base of slaves anf consuming units for a new world order + China..
> Putin was a troublemaker in this scheme and is now gone: either he falls or becomes de facto part of China alliance.
> we are heading toward famines and revolts..easily squashed now with drones, control and high tech.
> if this fails yes..a 1970 repeat as you state.
> Definitively a possibility and in my view a lesser evil
> With 10 to 20y of misery anyway.sp so praying i am wrong but so far all going to plan sadly
> let's have a thought for current victims ..and the coming ones



...and meanwhile, the Proles think it's all about good guy versus bad guy.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

qldfrog said:


> Thanks Belli..is it impartial??



only if you accept "_This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine_."


----------



## Belli

You may wish to wade through some of these.






						OSINT.org | Intelligence Matters
					

Intelligence Matters




					osint.org
				




The framework for OSINT is here.



			OSINT Framework


----------



## greggles

qldfrog said:


> Either Reset wins..and that's what our dark leaders want:
> currencies replaced by state cryptos




Funny you should say that. An interesting take on the long term economic agenda of the Russia-Ukraine Invasion.


----------



## IFocus

Did someone say history?

Holodomor​
"_moryty holodom_, 'to kill by starvation'),[a][3][4][5] also known as the *Terror-Famine*[6][7][8] or the *Great Famine*,[9] was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. The term _Holodomor_ emphasises the famine's man-made and allegedly intentional aspects such as rejection of outside aid, confiscation of all household foodstuffs and restriction of population movement. As a large part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the country, millions of inhabitants of Ukraine, the majority of whom were ethnic Ukrainians, died of starvation in a peacetime catastrophe unprecedented in the history of Ukraine.["










						Holodomor - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## moXJO

greggles said:


> Funny you should say that. An interesting take on the long term economic agenda of the Russia-Ukraine Invasion.




In Russia, your position dumps you!


----------



## waterbottle

bluekelah said:


> aljazeera can be very pro american at times, but they do have boots on the ground.
> 
> I watch this channel WION on youtube, they report most of the facts on both sides. They had an episode talking about Zelensky's mistakes as well showing they are not pro-american that much..
> 
> 
> This is my favourite CNN reporter clip, listen what he says from 2:16 onwards... super hilarious....





I don't know what to laugh at:

The obvious propaganda that Ukraine is still being held and Russia is fighting a losing war, or the CNN host's insistence that the war was unprovoked.


----------



## JohnDe

waterbottle said:


> I don't know what to laugh at:
> 
> The obvious propaganda that Ukraine is still being held and Russia is fighting a losing war, or the CNN host's insistence that the war was unprovoked.




Which "losing war"? The one on 8 November 1917, or February 2014, or 25 November 2018, maybe 24 February 2022


----------



## waterbottle

JohnDe said:


> Which "losing war"? The one on 8 November 1917, or February 2014, or 25 November 2018, maybe 24 February 2022




Nah, the current one where Russia seems to be gaining more Ukrainian territory daily and the plight of Ukrainian citizens is prolonged thanks to idealistic Western ggovernment 'help' prolonging the inevitable


----------



## JohnDe

waterbottle said:


> Nah, the current one where Russia seems to be gaining more Ukrainian territory daily and the plight of Ukrainian citizens is prolonged thanks to idealistic Western ggovernment 'help' prolonging the inevitable




Well that one is a no-brainer. 

Everyone knew that the might of Russia would overwhelm the Ukrainian defence force. 

The only thing that caught military advisers off guard was the Russian military incompetence.


----------



## Value Collector

divs4ever said:


> so it seems several times in the past  , mind you in earlier times  ' the world ' was a much smaller place  because some nations had economies of small impact  ,   so in WW1  the world  was mostly Europe    by the time of WW2  it was mainly Europe , Asia  ( with activities  in Africa  and the Middle East )
> 
> now apparently i am not unique in this theory  , it seems several  historians and economists  have similar views



There is a big difference between a war happening because of global economic turmoil and a war purposefully being organised as a solution.


----------



## Value Collector

waterbottle said:


> Nah, the current one where Russia seems to be gaining more Ukrainian territory daily and the plight of Ukrainian citizens is prolonged thanks to idealistic Western ggovernment 'help' prolonging the inevitable



Would Australians roll over and give up?

I doubt it, so why expect Ukraine to? If they wanted to they would.


----------



## waterbottle

Value Collector said:


> Would Australians roll over and give up?
> 
> I doubt it, so why expect Ukraine to? If they wanted to they would.




Because this isn't a war between Ukraine and Russia. It's now a proxy war between US-UK-NATO and Russia. Ukraine is already lost.
This is just futile chest thumping by the Western world that risks drawing in more countries into the conflict.

EDIT: See today's front page articles. American journalist killed. Military residence shelled with 30+ killed (ironically were 'foreign legion').


----------



## JohnDe

waterbottle said:


> Because this isn't a war between Ukraine and Russia. It's now a proxy war between US-UK-NATO and Russia. Ukraine is already lost.
> This is just futile chest thumping by the Western world that risks drawing in more countries into the conflict.
> 
> EDIT: See today's front page articles. American journalist killed. Military residence shelled with 30+ killed (ironically were 'foreign legion').


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## Value Collector

waterbottle said:


> Because this isn't a war between Ukraine and Russia. It's now a proxy war between US-UK-NATO and Russia. Ukraine is already lost.
> This is just futile chest thumping by the Western world that risks drawing in more countries into the conflict.
> 
> EDIT: See today's front page articles. American journalist killed. Military residence shelled with 30+ killed (ironically were 'foreign legion').



I disagree, it is most certainly a war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine is just receiving some assistance, much like Australia would.


----------



## waterbottle

Value Collector said:


> I disagree, it is most certainly a war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine is just receiving some assistance, much like Australia would.




We are free to disagree.

If my house was being shelled because Scomo  kept asking for weapons and volunteer mercenaries  to fuel we have little to no chance of winning - instead of agreeing to pull out of a military agreement that we had no hope of joining - I think I'd be pissed at Scomo.


----------



## againsthegrain

waterbottle said:


> We are free to disagree.
> 
> If my house was being shelled because Scomo  kept asking for weapons and volunteer mercenaries  to fuel we have little to no chance of winning - instead of agreeing to pull out of a military agreement that we had no hope of joining - I think I'd be pissed at Scomo.




But if Xi said your house is in a mainly Chinese suburb in Australia, we are annexing this suburb as part of China now,  would you just give up too?


----------



## Value Collector

waterbottle said:


> We are free to disagree.
> 
> If my house was being shelled because Scomo  kept asking for weapons and volunteer mercenaries  to fuel we have little to no chance of winning - instead of agreeing to pull out of a military agreement that we had no hope of joining - I think I'd be pissed at Scomo.



Some of us feel fighting to defend our freedom and national sovereignty against a tyrannical neighbour would be a worth while pursuit.

To be honest, I don’t think I would even know if my house was being shelled, because I wouldn’t be there I would be parading at my local Army base trying to hitch a ride to the front to go and kill those doing the shelling.


----------



## JohnDe

Australia and the Netherlands initiate legal proceedings against Russia in ICAO over downed MH17 flight​All 298 people on board the plane, including 38 Australian citizens and residents, died when a Buk missile hit the plane in 2014. 

Both Australia and the Netherlands maintain Russia was responsible under international law for the attack, and have now initiated legal proceedings against the Russian Federation in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).










						Australia and the Netherlands initiate legal proceedings against Russia over downed MH17 flight
					

Eight years after Russia allegedly shot down passenger flight MH17 over Ukraine, killing hundreds of Australians and Dutch travellers, the two nations commence legal proceedings against the Russian Federation.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## frugal.rock

Quick, open all the Maccas, KFC etc with upsize freebies and promotions
 Shut all the butcher's and green grocers...


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## againsthegrain

frugal.rock said:


> Quick, open all the Maccas, KFC etc with upsize freebies and promotions
> Shut all the butcher's and green grocers...





just don't tell her this...

The high number of early deaths in Russia is mainly due to people drinking too much alcohol, particularly vodka, research suggests.

The study, in The Lancet, says 25% of Russian men die before they are 55, and most of the deaths are down to alcohol. The comparable UK figure is 7%.


----------



## wayneL

I love her.... ummmm... accent?


----------



## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> I love her.... ummmm... accent?



I like the hat... yeah thats where I was looking at


----------



## Tropico

againsthegrain said:


> The high number of early deaths in Russia is mainly due to people drinking too much alcohol, particularly vodka, research suggests.




I bought a bottle of Russian Vodka some time ago. Never again.... yes, Russian Vodka will give you very serious health problems.


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> But if Xi said your house is in a mainly Chinese suburb in Australia, we are annexing this suburb as part of China now,  would you just give up too?



If i was living in Shanghai french quarter..i would


----------



## qldfrog

greggles said:


> Funny you should say that. An interesting take on the long term economic agenda of the Russia-Ukraine Invasion.




Interesting, while i do not believe this is the cause, i think Nato push is:
It definitively is part of the analysis and the I do not care view of sanctions..
We can have a gold backed crypto, can you Mr USD?
Let's see how this unfold 
Like the guy


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> Interesting, while i do not believe this is the cause, i think Nato push is:
> It definitively is part of the analysis and the I do not care view of sanctions..
> We can have a gold backed crypto, can you Mr USD?
> Let's see how this unfold
> Like the guy



I mean YouTuber


----------



## Gunnerguy

againsthegrain said:


> But if Xi said your house is in a mainly Chinese suburb in Australia, we are annexing this suburb as part of China now,  would you just give up too?



Are we talking about Ukraine ..... or Palestine .... oh the Jewish Nation 2,000 years ago ruled this land. Let’s kick out the Palestinians and move back.
It hapend everywhere unfortunately.
Sounds familiar.

Gunnerguy.


----------



## qldfrog

Gunnerguy said:


> Are we talking about Ukraine ..... or Palestine .... oh the Jewish Nation 2,000 years ago ruled this land. Let’s kick out the Palestinians and move back.
> It hapend everywhere unfortunately.
> Sounds familiar.
> 
> Gunnerguy.



Not to mention not so long ago Nato pushing the Serbs away from their birthplace in Kosovo, bombing hospitals in Belgrave to ensure muslim extremists in western Europe can now go and train there before slashing throats in France or the UK....
Probably more Putin Serbian propaganda I am sure.....🙄
US democrats wanted this to happen, and in my opinion, the whole of US will meet Karma..
Which is sad as well as not all Americans, or Australians should pay the price for these actions..yet we will


----------



## qldfrog

Fwiw, i would like to have more people having an unbiaisd and constructed view on this conflict.
By having to post these countrr arguments again and again, i feel like a russian troll.
I am in awe with what Putin managed to do in the last decades for Russia but i am also aware he is not an angel.
So not exactly in love with the man 
I just wish we had more European or australian leaders of his statute with love for their country and not the positions and lobbies.
Ok more travelling ahead


----------



## Dona Ferentes

I'm sorry, @qldfrog  that that is plainly wrong. You make no arguments that make any sense. Some of your 'counter arguments' are similar to what a Russian troll would make. I usually don't reply to them ; they are _enneuyeux_.

You make brash, uninformed statements about other people, on ASF, about this country and others, and about Western leaders that have no basis of fact.

Enoy your freedoms. And don't come out with all that Reset and sheeples nonsense.

_"But we need you now, and that's why I'm hangin' 'round 
So you be good to me and I'll be good to you 
And in this land of conditions I'm not above suspicion 
I won't attack you, but I won't back you."_


----------



## qldfrog

Dona Ferentes said:


> I'm sorry, @qldfrog  that that is plainly wrong. You make no arguments that make any sense. Some of your 'counter arguments' are similar to what a Russian troll would make. I usually don't reply to them ; they are _enneuyeux_.
> 
> You make brash, uninformed statements about other people, on ASF, about this country and others, and about Western leaders that have no basis of fact.
> 
> Enoy your freedoms. And don't come out with all that Reset and sheeples nonsense.
> 
> _"But we need you now, and that's why I'm hangin' 'round
> So you be good to me and I'll be good to you
> And in this land of conditions I'm not above suspicion
> I won't attack you, but I won't back you."_



Reset makes no sense...sure...
What else do you want? They have an agenda publicly available for anyone who cares to look.
This has been running politics and geo politics for the last 5 y i guess if not longuer.covid scam was jumped on as an opportunity to speed the process..official
Anyway as you know "Heureux soient les simples d esprits"
Enjoy, it is very relaxing.i have been to Russia, i have been to the States, in LA 2w ago, i lived in China and obviously Australia
all that in the last 5y i know what i see.
So not to bore you and it is true many others  better informed people here, i will stop and let you enjoy the CNN/Guardian/ABC rightfull views.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

today's distilled evaluation



> Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.









						Institute for the Study of War
					






					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## JohnDe

Gunnerguy said:


> Are we talking about Ukraine ..... or Palestine .... oh the Jewish Nation 2,000 years ago ruled this land. Let’s kick out the Palestinians and move back.
> It hapend everywhere unfortunately.
> Sounds familiar.
> 
> Gunnerguy.




*The sins of the father are to be laid upon the children*.

At some stage, humanity and society, learning from our mistakes and history allows us act differently. 

Two wrongs have never made a right.

I, and many others, are proud that the majority are standing up to Putin's invasion.

No more wars!


----------



## investtrader

divs4ever said:


> yes there  will be selective disclosure of the truth from both sides
> 
> but one FACT remains this conflict turned up at a perfect time to distract  from a collapsing global economy



You are a disgrace . Pity you weren't born in Ukraine... might make you wake up to yourself


----------



## Dona Ferentes

investtrader said:


> You are a disgrace . Pity you weren't born in Ukraine... might make you wake up to yourself



He didn't go to university. He told us.


----------



## moXJO

What are you lot doing exactly?
Thoughts and prayers are doing a lot are they.

It's a discussion. Not moralising the rights and wrongs of peoples positions.
How many of you have donated so far?
Or joined the Ukraine war effort?

Nobody agrees with the war. But it's not good vs bad guys. It's elitists waging war using poor people that don't want to be there. I don't like it. Don't support what Putin is doing. But reality is I'm also doing sweet FA about it. And you lot probably are doing even less. So don't pretend like you are.

Talking sht on here ain't killing anyone. Just realise your own damn positions though. Not only doing nothing, but being uppity flogs about it


----------



## JohnDe

moXJO said:


> What are you lot doing exactly?
> Thoughts and prayers are doing a lot are they.
> 
> It's a discussion. Not moralising the rights and wrongs of peoples positions.
> How many of you have donated so far?
> Or joined the Ukraine war effort?
> 
> Nobody agrees with the war. But it's not good vs bad guys. It's elitists waging war using poor people that don't want to be there. I don't like it. Don't support what Putin is doing. But reality is I'm also doing sweet FA about it. And you lot probably are doing even less. So don't pretend like you are.
> 
> Talking sht on here ain't killing anyone. Just realise your own damn positions though. Not only doing nothing, but being uppity flogs about it




I’m speaking out against it, letting everyone know that Putin & Russia are war mongers and that I want all politicians to yell and scream at Putin to STOP and leave the Ukraine.

I am also donating, some of my friends are donating and one of our friends speaks Ukrainian and has created a gofundme page.

Everyone should speak up against this war,  the more we all shout the bigger we become. 

People don’t need to go and fight to show their support for Ukraine  🇺🇦  People just need to do what they can, every bit counts.


----------



## Smurf1976

moXJO said:


> It's elitists waging war using poor people that don't want to be there.




"We're fightin' for the gods of war but what the hell we fightin' for?"

OK, that's just a line from a song, but sums it up well enough. The whole thing's just a rotten situation.


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> Your theory is full of holes.
> 
> Firstly you assume that Russian leadership was concerned enough about all countries being affected by a economic collapse that Putin took it upon himself to send in the Russian military to create a war, so as to stop the economy collapsing across the globe.
> 
> Putin hates the west, it’s all documented, he’d enjoy watching the world economy while Russia continued to sell oil & gas.
> 
> Yes WWI was mostly Europe, that’s because different countries at different times had been at war with each other for hundreds of years, the war to end all wars was created because various countries had agreements in place to support any that went to war.
> 
> WWII saw Japan come in and try take over one part of the world while Germany concentrated on the other.
> 
> Nothing to do with a country trying to stop a world economic collapse. Any suggestion that those wars and the current one is some crazy idea to help the world economy is a poor conspiracy theory.



 that depends if you believe the  'Mr. 5 percent ' theory  where Putin allegedly owns 5% of every business that is worth-while in Russia

 now Putin doesn't brag about that but the West alleges that while calling him an oligarch and sanctioning the businesses owned by associates 

 SO  he either doesn't care about  Russia and it's economy  because  he is totally isolated in  his ivory tower OR he has his finger on the pulse just by looking at his monthly income reports

 and Putin MIGHT hate the West but he is less vocal about it than many of his opponents ( about him )

 and speaking of 1930's Japan  did you ever  notice how much territory it occupied while still happily trading with the West ( including Australia ) i never saw news reports of protests in Australia about Japan occupying Korea or Mongolia ,  and there was limited resistance funded by the US  of the Chinese resistance to Japanese occupation  ( which is why China has the current attitude )

 and sorry to be a party pooper but the BANKERS believe war is  a wonderful remedy to economic woes 

 i saw  my school mates  return from Vietnam  and  also know a couple of blokes stuffed up from the 'liberation' of East Timor , and the Borneo affair ,   i definitely don't like wars as much as politicians and bankers 

 now last i heard the Russian parliament  is populated by a MAJORITY of ex-Russian intelligence  personnel ( KGB , GRU , etc etc etc )

 in fact Medvedev is the highest profile Russian politician without a military background  ( but none dare call Russia a military junta )


----------



## JohnDe

> US, allies under pressure to perform airlifts; Civilians 'held hostage' as Putin continues press in Mariupol, Kyiv​
> The US and its western allies are facing pressure to mount an airlift in Ukraine to save civilians still trapped in cities being bombed by Russian troops.
> 
> Douglas Feith and John Hannah, who served as defence officials in the administration of George W Bush, are among those calling for negotiations with Moscow to secure air corridors for Ukrainian civilians, and to deliver supplies of food, water and medicine.
> “Having refused to establish a no-fly zone, President Biden needs more options to deal with enormous and urgent humanitarian needs. We propose an international airlift, organised and supported by the US,” they said in The Wall Street Journal.
> 
> Global pressure for the airlift as “an acceptable alternative to a no-fly zone” should be mobilised, from the UN to the Vatican, and other religious leaders recruited to increase pressure on President Putin to spare civilian lives.
> 
> “Instead of threatening to shoot down Russian planes, a humanitarian airlift would force Russia either to consent or threaten to shoot down planes from non-threatening countries full of humanitarian goods,” Feith and Hannah wrote.
> 
> – Dow Jones




Vaguely reminds me of the Marshall Plan & the symbolic Molotov Plan


----------



## basilio

JohnDe said:


> Vaguely reminds me of the Marshall Plan & the symbolic Molotov Plan




Perhaps your thinking of the Berlin airlift 1948-9 ? When Soviet Russia blockaded East Berlin to try and force the West to accede to it's demands.









						The Berlin Airlift: What It Was, Its Importance in the Cold War
					

June 26 marks the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the Berlin Airlift, America’s first major test of resolve during the Cold War and one of the largest humanitarian aid missions in history.Never



					www.defense.gov


----------



## Sean K

JohnDe said:


> Vaguely reminds me of the Marshall Plan & the symbolic Molotov Plan




There's a concept known as the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), that was instituted in response to the Rwandan Genocide after the international community stood by while 100s of 1000s of Tutsi's were killed in 1994. My current avatar is me in Rwanda in 94. 

The UN could invoke this this if they had the will, but Russia and China are permanent members of the Security Council, so...

There seems to be quite a few examples of crimes against humanity during the invasion of Ukraine so far. Let's hope it doesn't get worse and civilians are allowed to escape. Or at least, not held hostage, deliberately killed, raped, etc. All of which seems to have already occurred.  

This is a bit of a test of the UN and the Security Council at the moment. What's the ostensible World governing body going to do about it? I think their hands are tied when there's a veto power. Maybe time to expand the permanent members and you just need a majority vote for action.


----------



## Sean K

This looks untidy.

Disclose article.

In The Oz today:
The dirty secret of Russia’s Made in France military​A French investigative news site has revealed that France has secretly armed the Russian military between 2015 and 2020, in breach of sanctions created after Russia’s annexure of Crimea.

Disclose is a not-for-profit non-government organisation engaged in investigative journalism. The NGO reported on March 14 that classified documents that had come into its possession showed the French government had issued 76 export licences to Russia for the export of almost $AUD250 million dollars of military equipment.

The sales have been confirmed in a public report to the French parliament which details the dollar amount of French military exports to Russia. The classified documents Disclose has come from the Secrétariat Général de la Défense et de la Sécurité Nationale and details the nature and quantity of military equipment exported to Russia.

The sales appear to be in breach of a European Union embargo on arms exports to Russia from member countries established in 2014.

The claims challenge the orthodox reporting of a Europe united against Putin’s aggression. The prevailing analysis is that the US, the European Union, and NATO have been as one in establishing hard economic sanctions on Putin’s Russia as well as stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine and commitments to increase military spending across NATO members, including long term recalcitrant, Germany.

In December 2013, Russian troops entered the Donbass region of Ukraine in support of Russian separatists. In early 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and in July of that year, Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew, including 38 Australians.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> This looks untidy.
> 
> Disclose article.
> 
> In The Oz today:
> The dirty secret of Russia’s Made in France military​A French investigative news site has revealed that France has secretly armed the Russian military between 2015 and 2020, in breach of sanctions created after Russia’s annexure of Crimea.
> 
> Disclose is a not-for-profit non-government organisation engaged in investigative journalism. The NGO reported on March 14 that classified documents that had come into its possession showed the French government had issued 76 export licences to Russia for the export of almost $AUD250 million dollars of military equipment.
> 
> The sales have been confirmed in a public report to the French parliament which details the dollar amount of French military exports to Russia. The classified documents Disclose has come from the Secrétariat Général de la Défense et de la Sécurité Nationale and details the nature and quantity of military equipment exported to Russia.
> 
> The sales appear to be in breach of a European Union embargo on arms exports to Russia from member countries established in 2014.
> 
> The claims challenge the orthodox reporting of a Europe united against Putin’s aggression. The prevailing analysis is that the US, the European Union, and NATO have been as one in establishing hard economic sanctions on Putin’s Russia as well as stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine and commitments to increase military spending across NATO members, including long term recalcitrant, Germany.
> 
> In December 2013, Russian troops entered the Donbass region of Ukraine in support of Russian separatists. In early 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and in July of that year, Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew, including 38 Australians.



I believe the French according to the article below were fulfilling orders and contracts signed prior to Europe deciding on a post-Crimea embargo on arms to Russia. 

I had not heard of Disclose before. 









						Ministry stresses that French arms sales to Russia are not in violation of EU sanctions
					

The French Defence Ministry denies that France violated sanctions imposed by the European Union by continuing to sell military equipment to Moscow after it annexed Crimea in 2014. Investigative journalism NGO Disclose reported on 14 March that the French government approved around 152 million...




					uk.style.yahoo.com
				




gg


----------



## JohnDe

> On RN Drive, Andy Park spoke to two Aussies who took an incredible journey.
> 
> Last week, Roger Scott and Daniel Russell left their homes in Warsaw, Poland, and drove to Lviv, a city filled with refugees fleeing the Russian invasion.
> 
> The mission was simple: deliver valuable supplies and transport refugees out of the country. But it didn't go quite as planned.
> 
> They set off in the morning, optimistic and with plenty of packed sandwiches. But when they entered Ukraine that evening, they were confronted with harrowing scenes.
> 
> In just a few days, the fallout from the war had dramatically worsened.
> 
> "The scenes there were post-apocalyptic; people everywhere, 10,000 minimum," Roger says.
> 
> "They were covering the highway, crowding around fires, children crying. They were all women and children because the men aren't allowed to leave Ukraine.
> 
> "It was just desperation and pure chaos. I've never seen anything like it."
> 
> The pair finally entered the city just before martial law curfew. They couldn't deliver the generator they'd brought, so stashed it in a safe place and got on with delivering supplies.
> 
> "We took radios, tactical belts, gloves, a GPS device," Roger says.
> 
> "[Defence groups] are also asking for things like night vision [goggles], knee pads, elbow pads, and even just military socks and t-shirts."
> 
> They were so late that the refugees they'd promised to collect had gone home, so Roger and Daniel drove around the empty city picking them up.
> 
> It took 13 hours to cross the Polish border. Roger, who speaks Russian, tried to keep the travellers entertained.
> 
> Finally, they made it back. Now, they're planning what their next trip might look like.
> 
> "It's hard to sit here and do nothing," Roger says. "It seemed like the right thing to do, and I really don't regret it."








__





						RN Drive 16.03.2022 - ABC Radio National
					

With intelligent and thought-provoking analysis, RN Drive goes behind the headlines to give you original insight into the world you live in.  Keep up to date with federal politics, current affairs, arts, culture and the stories that are making Australia talk.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Craton

Hmm... wondering when Aussie companies would be doing this on home soil. The below SMH link refers to Rio Tinto and the Rusal joint aluminium venture.


> Russian oligarchs with Queensland holdings now facing sanctions​



From memory Origin Energy was another with joint venture gas interests with Russian oligarch's. I'm sure there are others too.


----------



## JohnDe

Email message from my health provider - 


We, as a team, are heartbroken by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. We continue to stare in disbelief at the news and wonder what we can possibly do to help.
Many Ukrainians now find themselves in countries where they don’t speak the language, and it must be unsettling for them not to be able to communicate. We want to help change this.
All Ukrainians affected by the ongoing conflict can now access a *free Busuu Premium membership for three months, including all languages via the app or desktop.* We hope this will enable them to pick up the basics of their host country’s language without paying for the service.
Busuu prides itself on our community of learners all across the world, so we’re reaching out and asking you to share this important message with anyone you think needs it right now.
While it’s a small gesture, we want to give those who have been displaced the chance to feel a little more comfortable wherever they find themselves.
Below you will find more information on how Ukrainians can sign up and get access to all our 13 language courses, including Polish, English, German and Spanish.​
Find out more​
We believe in unity through languages and hope that peace comes quickly to those affected,​





Bernhard Niesner
CEO and Co-Founder​


----------



## JohnDe

> Russia’s war is creating corporate winners and losers​
> MOST MULTINATIONAL companies can live without Russian customers. Living without Russian commodities would be much harder. On March 15th the European Commission announced new economic constraints on Russia, including a ban on exports of European luxury items and cars—the definition of an essential good is, after all, in the eye of the oligarch. But the announcement also included a ban on steel products from Russia. More such restrictions on Russian exports may come.
> 
> Companies are struggling to contain the fallout of Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine. The first response of those with business in Russia was to rush for the exit. About 400 have announced their withdrawal from Russia, according to a tally by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale, cowed by legal and reputational risks. Executives now face a different, bigger challenge. This concerns not their business within Russia but supply chains that extend beyond it, and other knock-on effects. As the war continues, it is creating corporate winners and losers, as well as enormous volatility.
> 
> There are two factors that make the shock to supply chains particularly difficult for firms to manage. The first is the breadth of commodities produced by Ukraine and Russia. The two countries together supply 26% of the world’s export of wheat, 16% of corn, 30% of barley and about 80% of sunflower oil and sunflower-seed meal. Ukraine provides about half the world’s neon, used to etch microchips. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, second-largest producer of gas and top exporter of nickel, used in car batteries, and palladium, used in car-exhaust systems, not to mention a large exporter of aluminium and iron. Even without formal sanctions on most of Russia’s commodities, Western traders are increasingly trying to avoid them, wary of legal risks.
> 
> The second complicating factor is the market’s extraordinary swings. The price of Brent crude surged to $128 a barrel on March 8th, then dipped below $100 a week later as China announced new covid-19 restrictions and investors anticipated the interest-rate increase by America’s Federal Reserve on March 16th. The London Metals Exchange halted trading of nickel on March 8th after its price shot past a record $100,000 a tonne. When trading resumed on March 16th, a technical issue prompted the exchange to suspend trading once more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The overall American stockmarket is back roughly to where it was before the invasion. But a few industries benefit from the turmoil, from armsmakers to cable news and the lawyers who help firms comply with sanctions. The biggest winners are commodities firms, especially outside Russia (see chart).
> A stockmarket index of American frackers, which benefit from high oil prices and European demand for liquefied natural gas, climbed by a fifth between February 23rd to March 10th. It remains 9% above its pre-invasion level, despite the decline in oil prices. Mining firms are, as a group, likewise performing well, buoyed by higher metals prices, as are steelmakers beyond Russia. The share prices of US Steel and Tata Steel, with headquarters in Pittsburgh and Mumbai, respectively, have climbed by 38% and 11% since the eve of the invasion. Bunge and ADM, two big listed traders that specialise in rerouting flows of grain, have outperformed the market, too.
> The war does not affect all commodities firms equally. Rio Tinto, a big miner, announced on March 10th that it would abandon a joint venture with Rusal, a giant Russian aluminium producer. Rocketing electricity costs resulting from the soaring price of natural gas, 40% of which Europe gets from Russia, have forced some Spanish steelmakers to cut output.
> Pricey inputs are a more universal problem for sectors further up the value chain. Just as they were preparing to lift off as pandemic travel restrictions are relaxed, airlines got slapped with rocketing fuel costs. Yara International, a Norwegian fertiliser-maker, said on March 9th that the cost of natural gas had prompted it to cut production at two European factories.
> 
> Carmakers, which have not yet recovered from the pandemic’s disruptions to supply chains, face fresh problems. Volkswagen and BMW, two German giants, have cut production in Europe as they seek out new manufacturers of the harnesses that bundle miles of electrical wires in their cars to replace out-of-action Ukrainian suppliers. Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons that the 67% jump in nickel prices before trading stopped represents an increase of about $1,000 to the input costs of the average American electric vehicle.
> 
> Gabriel Adler of Citigroup, another bank, notes that carmakers have so far been successful in passing their costs on to consumers. Indeed, Tesla, America’s electric-car superstar, this month raised prices; Elon Musk, its boss, complained in a tweet about “significant recent inflation pressure in raw materials & logistics”. Such pricing power is enviable. But it has its limits. At some point people will not be willing to absorb the increases.
> 
> In some cases, consumers are beginning to balk. American food firms have been raising prices for months to offset higher costs of energy, transport and ingredients. However, they have been unable to raise them quickly enough to protect margins. The need to negotiate prices with grocers limits their ability to demand higher ones whenever they desire. And grocers, in turn, are under pressure from shoppers. Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse, one more bank, notes that consumers have in the past year been willing to stomach pricier food. But the war’s impact on commodities prices comes at a moment when their patience is wearing thin, especially in America, where inflation has hit a 40-year high.
> 
> “Every food company must be getting a little nervous that they are pushing the consumer too far,” says Mr Moskow. As the costs of inputs continue to climb, it looks increasingly likely that companies will be forced to choose between compressing profits and depressing demand.
> 
> _Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here_


----------



## Sean K

One of the principles of war in Army doctrine is the element of surprise. For eg, you might decide to leave it to the last minute for an artillery bombardment, which usually indicates an attack is imminent. 

Putin has managed to fail on this one on two accounts.

First, he amassed forces on the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus for months, pretending they were part of exercises. However, when he started sending down force logistic units including hospitals he telegraphed his intent. Plus, we do have satellites now which could see where every single tank was located and in which direction they were going to go due to the terrain. Don't discount what the Five Eyes were delivering to Ukraine on signals intelligence of exactly what Russia was up to. 

The second thing he cocked up with the element of surprise was that he forgot to tell all his troops he had amassed on the border that they were actually going to war and not going on a training exercise. This was presumedly kept secret to them because if they knew they were about to attack their fellow Slavs (I understand they're all the same ethnic group now) they might not have been so keen. This meant they were very unprepared at the lower levels of command and especially in the airforce, who didn't seem to be aware they were going to war at all.

So, it's starting to look like an own goal for Putin. I'm sure he's surprised Ukraine hasn't rolled over.


----------



## Value Collector

Sean K said:


> One of the principles of war in Army doctrine is the element of surprise. For eg, you might decide to leave it to the last minute for an artillery bombardment, which usually indicates an attack is imminent.
> 
> Putin has managed to fail on this one on two accounts.
> 
> First, he amassed forces on the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus for months, pretending they were part of exercises. However, when he started sending down force logistic units including hospitals he telegraphed his intent. Plus, we do have satellites now which could see where every single tank was located and in which direction they were going to go due to the terrain. Don't discount what the Five Eyes were delivering to Ukraine on signals intelligence of exactly what Russia was up to.
> 
> The second thing he cocked up with the element of surprise was that he forgot to tell all his troops he had amassed on the border that they were actually going to war and not going on a training exercise. This was presumedly kept secret to them because if they knew they were about to attack their fellow Slavs (I understand they're all the same ethnic group now) they might not have been so keen. This meant they were very unprepared at the lower levels of command and especially in the airforce, who didn't seem to be aware they were going to war at all.
> 
> So, it's starting to look like an own goal for Putin. I'm sure he's surprised Ukraine hasn't rolled over.



Also the logistics issues destroyed the momentum of the invasion, giving the Ukraines time to get off the back foot and throw a few punches themselves.

The German panzer invasion of France in WW2 is a great example of a force maintaining momentum and forcing the enemy onto the back foot.

I was speaking to a couple of guys that took part in the Iraq invasion in 2003, and they mentioned that the momentum of the invasion was so important that they were ordered to maintain the speed of their advance to their objective even if it meant ignoring enemy along the way, they were literally told to avoid/break contact with any enemy forces they bump into and not even return fire unless their vehicles windscreens were actually being hit with bullets until they got deep inside Iraq to  pre designated targets.

Allowing themselves to be distracted with skirmishes along the way would have killed the element of surprise and given the enemy time to protect the actual main targets.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Sean K said:


> One of the principles of war in Army doctrine is the element of surprise. For eg, you might decide to leave it to the last minute for an artillery bombardment, which usually indicates an attack is imminent. Putin has managed to fail on this .. on two accounts.
> First, he amassed forces on the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus for months, [and] telegraphed his intent. Plus, we do have satellites now which could see where every single tank was located and in which direction they were going...
> The second thing he cocked up with the element of surprise....
> 
> So, it's starting to look like an own goal for Putin.



_and a third account_:
he's just like the other autocratic monomaniacs, looking for scapegoats, this time among the Russian population. A recent speech, sounding like every other tyrant:



> "_Of course, they [the West] will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors — on those who earn their money here but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking," he told government ministers, three weeks into Russia's war with Ukraine._





> _"Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors and just to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths._





> _"I am convinced that this natural and necessary *self-cleansing of society* will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion, and readiness to meet any challenge."_




Sounds a bit like " _Ten years of corrective labour camps without the right of correspondence_".


----------



## investtrader

JohnDe said:


> I’m speaking out against it, letting everyone know that Putin & Russia are war mongers and that I want all politicians to yell and scream at Putin to STOP and leave the Ukraine.
> 
> I am also donating, some of my friends are donating and one of our friends speaks Ukrainian and has created a gofundme page.
> 
> Everyone should speak up against this war,  the more we all shout the bigger we become.
> 
> People don’t need to go and fight to show their support for Ukraine  🇺🇦  People just need to do what they can, every bit counts.



I agree. I have donated to Medicines sans frontieres as I think this is a good way of trying to help the Ukraine people affected.


----------



## bluekelah

JohnDe said:


> I’m speaking out against it, letting everyone know that Putin & Russia are war mongers and that I want all politicians to yell and scream at Putin to STOP and leave the Ukraine.
> 
> I am also donating, some of my friends are donating and one of our friends speaks Ukrainian and has created a gofundme page.
> 
> Everyone should speak up against this war,  the more we all shout the bigger we become.
> 
> People don’t need to go and fight to show their support for Ukraine  🇺🇦  People just need to do what they can, every bit counts.



Americans are pretty good warmongers too, they profit a lot from all the conflicts by selling arms. You can see them engage in so many conflicts. Vietnam/Gulf war/Yugoslav wars/Afghanistan/etc.. list goes on




__





						List of armed conflicts involving the United States - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Russia supplies a lot of the world's important commodities, lotsa important industrial metals like nickel/palladium/etc..  

Russia’s Top 10 Exports​
Mineral fuels including oil: US$211.5 billion (43% of total exports)
Gems, precious metals: $31.6 billion (6.4%)
Iron, steel: $28.9 billion (5.9%)
Fertilizers: $12.5 billion (2.5%)
Wood: $11.7 billion (2.4%)
Machinery including computers: $10.7 billion (2.2%)
Cereals(lotsa wheat): $9.1 billion (1.9%)
Aluminum: $8.8 billion (1.8%)
Ores, slag, ash: $7.4 billion (1.5%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $6.2 billion (1.3%)

Even germany and many other european countries are trying to source for more oil/gas, but unable to sanction Russian gas and is still lapping it up. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-rejects-calls-for-banning-russian-oil-and-gas/

So nothing is gonna stop Russia from eventually getting what they want in Ukraine. Sanctions are just a joke, even more so as I would say most of the world is not able to stay afloat if they were to do complete sanctions.  Russians have plenty of resources to be self sufficent as well.

Russians just taking their time in order to capture as much infrastructure as they can intact. They already have major power plants, water supply, telcoms and full control of the airspace. And if the ukrainians continue to put military hardware next to hospitals and schools, then there's just going to be more collateral damage. 

Yelling and screaming doesnt solve problems. There has to be negotiations between both sides. Recently Biden calling Putin a War criminal is not going to help anything. Just like in the 1960s cuban missile crisis, there were talks for like 13days or so before both sides finally agreed to decommission the nuke launch sites in both Turkey and Cuba.


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Americans are pretty good warmongers too, they profit a lot from all the conflicts by selling arms. You can see them engage in so many conflicts. Vietnam/Gulf war/Yugoslav wars/Afghanistan/etc.. list goes on
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> List of armed conflicts involving the United States - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia supplies a lot of the world's important commodities, lotsa important industrial metals like nickel/palladium/etc..
> 
> Russia’s Top 10 Exports​
> Mineral fuels including oil: US$211.5 billion (43% of total exports)
> Gems, precious metals: $31.6 billion (6.4%)
> Iron, steel: $28.9 billion (5.9%)
> Fertilizers: $12.5 billion (2.5%)
> Wood: $11.7 billion (2.4%)
> Machinery including computers: $10.7 billion (2.2%)
> Cereals(lotsa wheat): $9.1 billion (1.9%)
> Aluminum: $8.8 billion (1.8%)
> Ores, slag, ash: $7.4 billion (1.5%)
> Plastics, plastic articles: $6.2 billion (1.3%)
> 
> Even germany and many other european countries are trying to source for more oil/gas, but unable to sanction Russian gas and is still lapping it up. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-rejects-calls-for-banning-russian-oil-and-gas/
> 
> So nothing is gonna stop Russia from eventually getting what they want in Ukraine. Sanctions are just a joke, even more so as I would say most of the world is not able to stay afloat if they were to do complete sanctions.  Russians have plenty of resources to be self sufficent as well.
> 
> Russians just taking their time in order to capture as much infrastructure as they can intact. They already have major power plants, water supply, telcoms and full control of the airspace. And if the ukrainians continue to put military hardware next to hospitals and schools, then there's just going to be more collateral damage.
> 
> Yelling and screaming doesnt solve problems. There has to be negotiations between both sides. Recently Biden calling Putin a War criminal is not going to help anything. Just like in the 1960s cuban missile crisis, there were talks for like 13days or so before both sides finally agreed to decommission the nuke launch sites in both Turkey and Cuba.




"_Yelling and screaming doesnt solve problems._" History does not back up your comment.

Protests and demonstrations are an integral part of democracy. 

People in power and governments take note, they may be reluctant and slow but eventually they all take note and change in some way. If people are lucky enough to live in a democracy they'll see change happen quicker and safer than the peoples in authoritarian regimes and dictatorships.

‘Better to die on your feet, than live on your knees’

"_Americans are pretty good warmongers too_" Show me a major nation from the past 3000+ years that hasn't been involved in war. And while you're at it, explain to me the reason for Russia's invasions of the Ukraine.

Putin has set Russia back 50 years. Yes there may have been grievances caused by all sides, but a smart and wise leader could have and should have planned and implemented a prosperous and safe future for their people. Putin should have continued with the democratisation of Russia, negotiated membership into the European Union and then with NATO.

The 'yelling and screaming' of the many peoples of many countries may waver but it will never stop, those voices remind governments and leaders that change is required, and elections are the final yell. 

Sanctions on Russia and assistance to the Ukraine are making other countries think twice about invasion.









						List of protests against the Vietnam War - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## JohnDe

It is said that Mr Putin is obsessed with a video capturing the final moments of Libyan dictator Moamar Gaddafi.
"That's his worst nightmare," former CIA agent.
"I heard that Putin was greatly affected watching crowds ridicule, torture and ultimately kill Gaddafi."
That fear, according to experts, could drive the Russian President to hit Ukraine even harder in the coming weeks.
"If Putin yields, it's over for him," political scientist Ivan Krastev told Der Spiegel.
"He has to escalate in order to force the Ukrainians to capitulate.




> *In the Russia-Ukraine information war, propaganda master Vladimir Putin is being outdone by savvy Volodomyr Zelenskyy*
> By Rebecca Armitage and Lucy Sweeney
> 
> A former spy who spent half a century cutting a ruthless path to global dominance, Vladimir Putin strutted confidently into his one and only meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
> 
> His Ukrainian opponent was, after all, a comedic actor whose only political experience was playing a president on television.
> 
> He was also ridiculously young — practically a millennial.
> 
> Both men may have been born in the Soviet Union, but only Mr Putin was old enough to remember its implosion. And only Mr Putin was determined to recover what he believed was lost.
> 
> And so Mr Putin arrived for their 2019 meeting in Paris, chaperoned by Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, with his usual pomp and ceremony.
> 
> As always, he was late so he could make an entrance.
> 
> He rolled up to the Elysee Palace in an Aurus Senat, a seven-tonne Russian limousine often described as a counterfeit Rolls Royce.
> 
> Mr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, had arrived a little early in a mini-van.
> 
> The then 41-year-old had a lot at stake.
> 
> Six months after his landslide election victory, he was under intense pressure to get Russia out of rebel-held territory in Ukraine's east.
> 
> And after eight hours, the four leaders walked out of the room with an agreement: Ukraine and Russia would try to honour a five-year-old ceasefire that had, until then, been largely ignored.
> 
> In a post-summit press conference, Mr Putin projected faint optimism, saying a "thaw" had occurred in frosty relations between the two neighbours.
> 
> But Mr Zelenskyy spoke with honesty.
> 
> "I would have liked to have seen more," he said.
> 
> "It is vital for Ukraine to restore control of the entire length of its border."
> 
> It was the young Ukrainian's first flash of defiance to the Goliath at the other end of the table.
> 
> Two years later, Mr Putin would order Russian tanks and troops deep into Ukrainian territory.
> 
> But just as he did in the gilded meeting hall in Paris, Mr Zelenskyy defied expectations.
> 
> With the charisma of a TV star, the wardrobe of an action hero, and the social media strategy of a savvy influencer, Mr Zelenskyy is fighting — and winning — the information war.
> 
> And Mr Putin, once considered the master of propaganda, is finding himself outmatched.
> 
> 'It's too late for Russia to change the narrative'​As Mr Putin sent the full force of the Russian military across the border in late February, Mr Zelenskyy knew the odds were not in his favour.
> 
> Ukraine spent $6.3 billion on defence last year. Russia spent $62 billion.
> 
> Mr Zelenskyy had just over 1 million active troops and reservists at the ready. Mr Putin had 2.9 million.
> 
> But wars are not only fought and won on the battlefield.
> 
> If he was going to galvanise support from the West in the form of sanctions and military intelligence and weaponry, he needed to win the information war.
> 
> "Ukraine isn't just winning the battle for hearts and minds online, it has already won," US defence expert PW Singer wrote in Politico.
> 
> "And now it's too late for Russia to change the narrative."
> 
> Dressed in a khaki T-shirt and a hoodie, Mr Zelenskyy has stood his ground in Ukraine's capital, even as it turned into a war zone.
> 
> "I am here," he said in a video viewed 3 million times in its first hour on Instagram.
> 
> "We will protect our country. Our weapon is truth. And the truth is that it is our land. Our country. Our children. And we will protect it. That is it. That's what I wanted to tell you. Glory to Ukraine."
> 
> Mr Zelenskyy's government has adopted a modern and relentless communication strategy.
> 
> They have bombarded Russia's official social media accounts with sassy memes, packaged tales of heroism and tragedy to go viral, and deployed the President to talk to everyone from the United States Congress to actors Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis.
> 
> Meanwhile, Mr Putin has reached for a familiar playbook, according to Bart Cammaerts, a professor of communications at the London School of Economics.
> 
> "Violent repression, censorship, coercion, obfuscation and cynical distortions, presenting an alternate reality befitting the Russian worldview and interests, mostly geared towards shoring up internal legitimacy," he said.
> 
> While this strategy might be working within Russia, experts say Mr Putin appears to have vastly miscalculated on three key issues.
> 
> Not only did he overestimate Russia's military power, he greatly underestimated Ukraine's determination and the West's support for his rival Mr Zelenskyy.
> 
> So how did a man once widely seen as a master chess player thinking several steps ahead of the rest of the world find himself in this situation?
> Putin is obsessed with the past and Russian supremacy​For years, Mr Putin's fixation with the past served him well.
> 
> While other world leaders thought in terms of election cycles, he was trying to restore Russia to an ancient glory.
> 
> When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russian officials were quick to replace the paintings of Communist leaders that adorned their offices with portraits of the new president, Boris Yeltsin.
> 
> But a young Mr Putin, working as mayor Anatoly Sobchak's personal assistant, chose the all-powerful tsar Peter the Great for the new decor instead.
> 
> A visionary ruler who transformed Russia from an isolated outpost into a sizeable world power seems a fitting role model for a modern leader coming of age as the Soviet Union battled the US for supremacy.
> 
> But Peter the Great built his legacy with an unrelenting, battle-ready approach, hell-bent on delivering Russia a "window to Europe" via the Black Sea.
> 
> It's said that both Peter and his successor, Catherine the Great — who overthrew her husband Peter III and continued to modernise Russia while ruthlessly expanding its territory — still adorn Mr Putin's office walls today.
> 
> The Russian President has echoed his predecessors' aspirations to ensure the rest of the world respects his motherland, at any cost.
> 
> In 2005, he famously described the fall of the Soviet Union as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century", and in the years since he has tiptoed towards an all-out mission to revive those glory days.
> 
> "He goes to bed at night thinking of Peter the Great and he wakes up thinking of Stalin," former US intelligence committee chair Mike Rogers observed in 2014, while Putin's troops were annexing Crimea just as Catherine the Great had done in 1783.
> 
> Many have played down the comparisons in recent years, but Mr Putin's speech last week, in which he called Russians who do not support the war "scum and traitors" and advocated a "self-purification" of the nation, has been described as his "most Stalinesque" diatribe yet.
> 
> With the United Nations' highest court now investigating the atrocities of Mr Putin's war in Ukraine and the world nervously monitoring the fallout inside Russia, Western leaders have described him as a war criminal and a murderous dictator.
> The vibe shift comes for everyone, even Putin​The Russian President wants to be seen as a political strongman who won't be pushed around.
> 
> In projecting this image, the Kremlin has churned out a macho persona — frequently releasing photos of the President fishing and horseriding while shirtless, trekking through the Siberian wilderness and flexing his muscles.
> 
> "Rarely has the leader of a global power embraced the staged publicity still with such creative, yet cliched, fervour, not just feeding the global desire for a caricature of himself, but actually creating it," Vanessa Friedman wrote in the New York Times last year.
> 
> But that message relies on an old-fashioned propaganda machine that is now proving no match for the slick social media stylings of his opponent.
> 
> Mr Putin's state-owned media channels are facing bans outside Russia and a steady stream of resignations, as Mr Zelenskyy's lo-fi selfies on the streets of Kyiv and late-night videos inside his presidential office are being seen by millions around the world.
> 
> While Mr Zelenskyy was being called Winston Churchill in a hoodie, Mr Putin was ridiculed for wearing an $18,000 jacket to a rally in Moscow.
> 
> 
> In his bid to install himself as Vladimir the Great, Mr Putin has walked the tightrope of wooing the West while strengthening Russia's status on the world stage.
> 
> That carefully crafted image is now crumbling.
> 
> It is said that Mr Putin is obsessed with a graphic video capturing the final moments of Libyan dictator Moamar Gaddafi in 2011.
> 
> "That's his worst nightmare," former CIA agent Douglas London told iNews.
> 
> "I heard that Putin was greatly affected watching crowds ridicule, torture and ultimately kill Gaddafi."
> 
> That fear, according to experts, could drive the Russian President to hit Ukraine even harder in the coming weeks.
> 
> "If Putin yields, it's over for him," political scientist Ivan Krastev told Der Spiegel.
> 
> "He has to escalate in order to force the Ukrainians to capitulate.
> 
> "But Zelenskyy is precisely the person that would never sign such an agreement."


----------



## bluekelah

JohnDe said:


> "_Yelling and screaming doesnt solve problems._" History does not back up your comment.
> 
> Protests and demonstrations are an integral part of democracy.
> 
> People in power and governments take note, they may be reluctant and slow but eventually they all take note and change in some way. If people are lucky enough to live in a democracy they'll see change happen quicker and safer than the peoples in authoritarian regimes and dictatorships.
> 
> ‘Better to die on your feet, than live on your knees’
> 
> "_Americans are pretty good warmongers too_" Show me a major nation from the past 3000+ years that hasn't been involved in war. And while you're at it, explain to me the reason for Russia's invasions of the Ukraine.
> 
> Putin has set Russia back 50 years. Yes there may have been grievances caused by all sides, but a smart and wise leader could have and should have planned and implemented a prosperous and safe future for their people. Putin should have continued with the democratisation of Russia, negotiated membership into the European Union and then with NATO.
> 
> The 'yelling and screaming' of the many peoples of many countries may waver but it will never stop, those voices remind governments and leaders that change is required, and elections are the final yell.
> 
> Sanctions on Russia and assistance to the Ukraine are making other countries think twice about invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> List of protests against the Vietnam War - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



Hahha yeah so u admit that americans are war mongerers too eh..invade , liberate , potayto , potaato., it's all the same, war is war, doesn't matter the reason, civilian will always be collateral damage. 

Anyways I have already explained in previous posts a while back, the main reason for invasion is pretty simple. Romania in 2015 completed an aegis ashore missile 'defence' system. Despite claims for defence, this american produced launch system site has tomahawk nuclear ICBM capability, so nukes can be in range of major Russian cities. A second aegis system is to be completed pretty soon thus year in Poland, despite Russia's constant displeasure. Yes so a secondary NATO nuclear capable launch sites to be aimed at russia. Ukraine was on track to join NATO and well possible candidate for aegis system 

This is similar to 1960s Cuban missile crisis when the Americans started building secret nuke missile sites in Turkey which were in range of russia and USSR had to ship nukes to Cuba in reply and almost brought the world to nuclear war if not for negotiations which saw dismantling of sites on both sides.

Americans currently have China's eastern and southern seafront surrounded with American bases manned with military personnel in Taiwan Japan phillipines south Korea,etc. I am sure many will have strike capabilities within range of Chinese cities, though no installations of nukes capable systems in any of those countries yet. IF they were to be brazen enough to put in an aegis system or have plans for that in Japan or phillipines I can assure u China will be Liberating south Korea,  Taiwan and possibly Japan too. 

So yeah this conflict is just a result of russia feeling massively insecure with nuke sites pointed at them and they need to do something about it Period. I believe this was one of the main ceasefire demand from Russia ==""The Russia document also calls for the two countries to pull back any short- or medium-range missile systems out of reach, replacing the previous intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty that the US left in 2018""








						Russia issues list of demands it says must be met to lower tensions in Europe
					

Contentious security guarantees Moscow is seeking include a ban on Ukraine from entering Nato




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## greggles

bluekelah said:


> So yeah this conflict is just a result of russia feeling massively insecure with nuke sites pointed at them and they need to do something about it.




This is Russia's own doing. Russia has brutalised its neighbours for decades, driving them to the West for security and a better quality of life. The West didn't come to Central and Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe came to the West. Russia (Putin rather) has scored a huge own goal here and will pay for it for decades. The Russian economy will contract and shrink in the years to come and the quality of life for the average Russian will significantly decline. Infrastructure will crumble. The reality is the world doesn't need Russia, but Russia needs the rest of the world... and it has just lost most of it for a very long time.


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> I have already explained in previous posts a while back, the main reason for invasion is pretty simple. Romania in 2015 completed an aegis ashore missile 'defence' system. Despite claims for defence, this american produced launch system site has tomahawk nuclear ICBM capability, so nukes can be in range of major Russian cities. A second aegis system is to be completed pretty soon thus year in Poland, despite Russia's constant displeasure. Yes so a secondary NATO nuclear capable launch sites to be aimed at russia. Ukraine was on track to join NATO and well possible candidate for aegis system
> 
> This is similar to 1960s Cuban missile crisis when the Americans started building secret nuke missile sites in Turkey which were in range of russia and USSR had to ship nukes to Cuba in reply and almost brought the world to nuclear war if not for negotiations which saw dismantling of sites on both sides.
> 
> Americans currently have China's eastern and southern seafront surrounded with American bases manned with military personnel in Taiwan Japan phillipines south Korea,etc. I am sure many will have strike capabilities within range of Chinese cities, though no installations of nukes capable systems in any of those countries yet. IF they were to be brazen enough to put in an aegis system or have plans for that in Japan or phillipines I can assure u China will be Liberating south Korea,  Taiwan and possibly Japan too.
> 
> So yeah this conflict is just a result of russia feeling massively insecure with nuke sites pointed at them and they need to do something about it.




You are posting hearsay and Putin paranoia.

Both sides have a different story, one side has a free press and independent law system. The other is controlled by a dictator, has no free press or free judicial system. Which do you prefer?

If you're giving reasons to Putin's mad invasion scheming, then yes I agree, Putin is mad and has invaded for no sound reason other than the reasons of a paranoid man.

_The only thing that we have__ with respect to capabilities is the ability to launch SM-3 Block IB interceptors against ballistic missiles inbound from Iran," Commander John Fitzpatrick told RFE/RL in the control room of the missile-defense base._​​_Fitzpatrick said the 24 SM-3 ballistic-missile interceptors at the facility were mounted on a Mark 41 Vertical Launch System. The same launchers can be used to fire a range of surface-to-air missiles as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles and other offensive weapons._​​_But Fitzpatrick said the way those launchers had been "configured" and "installed" meant that "the only thing it can launch are those SM-3 ballistic missile interceptors."_​​_"There is no other capability that this site has right now, and it would take extensive changes, industrial-scale changes, to make any difference," Fitzpatrick explained._​​_In the main operation center of the facility, the ambassadors and journalists were allowed to see the consoles used by U.S. Navy sailors to control the missile-defense shield -- which has never fired a missile and is banned from carrying out test launches._​​_Each operator's station at Deveselu contains three computer screens along with communication systems and launch switches that would be engaged to fire the SM-3s at any incoming missiles during an attack on Europe._​
Maybe you should be looking a bit closer at all involved, _Macron may have made his remarks "just to provoke reaction."_

No nation or leader is pure and innocent, but most have rules in place that make it very difficult to go to invade and go to war for ownership of another's land.

As mentioned previously, a smart and wise leader could have and should have planned and implemented a prosperous and safe future for their people. Putin should have continued with the democratisation of Russia, negotiated membership into the European Union and then with NATO.

_No amount of NATO and U.S. assurances__, treaty obligations, or hardware and software changes would be sufficient to prevent the Russians from repeating their false narratives, partly because these narratives serve their own political purposes regardless of whether U.S. missile defense deployments to Europe are militarily significant.  The Putin regime considers NATO its adversary and presents itself as a protector of Russia’s interests and sovereignty to score domestic political points.[33]  Indeed, given the abysmal state of Russia’s economy, the regime’s authoritarian tendencies, suppression of civil society, and widespread corruption, President Putin does not have many domestic achievements to point to when attracting popular support._​


----------



## bluekelah

JohnDe said:


> You are posting hearsay and Putin paranoia.
> 
> Both sides have a different story, one side has a free press and independent law system. The other is controlled by a dictator, has no free press or free judicial system. Which do you prefer?
> 
> If you're giving reasons to Putin's mad invasion scheming, then yes I agree, Putin is mad and has invaded for no sound reason other than the reasons of a paranoid man.
> 
> _The only thing that we have__ with respect to capabilities is the ability to launch SM-3 Block IB interceptors against ballistic missiles inbound from Iran," Commander John Fitzpatrick told RFE/RL in the control room of the missile-defense base._​​_Fitzpatrick said the 24 SM-3 ballistic-missile interceptors at the facility were mounted on a Mark 41 Vertical Launch System. The same launchers can be used to fire a range of surface-to-air missiles as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles and other offensive weapons._​​_But Fitzpatrick said the way those launchers had been "configured" and "installed" meant that "the only thing it can launch are those SM-3 ballistic missile interceptors."_​​_"There is no other capability that this site has right now, and it would take extensive changes, industrial-scale changes, to make any difference," Fitzpatrick explained._​​_In the main operation center of the facility, the ambassadors and journalists were allowed to see the consoles used by U.S. Navy sailors to control the missile-defense shield -- which has never fired a missile and is banned from carrying out test launches._​​_Each operator's station at Deveselu contains three computer screens along with communication systems and launch switches that would be engaged to fire the SM-3s at any incoming missiles during an attack on Europe._​
> Maybe you should be looking a bit closer at all involved, _Macron may have made his remarks "just to provoke reaction."_
> 
> No nation or leader is pure and innocent, but most have rules in place that make it very difficult to go to invade and go to war for ownership of another's land.
> 
> As mentioned previously, a smart and wise leader could have and should have planned and implemented a prosperous and safe future for their people. Putin should have continued with the democratisation of Russia, negotiated membership into the European Union and then with NATO.
> 
> _No amount of NATO and U.S. assurances__, treaty obligations, or hardware and software changes would be sufficient to prevent the Russians from repeating their false narratives, partly because these narratives serve their own political purposes regardless of whether U.S. missile defense deployments to Europe are militarily significant.  The Putin regime considers NATO its adversary and presents itself as a protector of Russia’s interests and sovereignty to score domestic political points.[33]  Indeed, given the abysmal state of Russia’s economy, the regime’s authoritarian tendencies, suppression of civil society, and widespread corruption, President Putin does not have many domestic achievements to point to when attracting popular support._​



Now wanting europe to pay for oil and gas in rubles  doesnt sound like a mad man , i believe the oligarchy and other big players from the days of the Soviet era are involved as well.


			https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2022/03/782659/putin-tells-europe-pay-gas-rubles
		


Russia/china/Brazil and other Emerging nations who do not want to be under the control of USD are likely to be thinking of implementing maybe russo-sino petro currency.

If u study history, u will understand that the notion of russia joining NATO is not possible.  

More importantly, Most of the world is undergoing massive inflation now and likely a recession/stagflation soon as well ala 1970s again. 

I have hedged my bets by getting more exposure to gold,  oil and other commodities stocks. It would be prudent to stock up on daily necessities as well as some fuel. Most younger Australians will not remember the days when we had 15percent interest rates and fuel shortages.


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Now wanting europe to pay for oil and gas in rubles  doesnt sound like a mad man , i believe the oligarchy and other big players from the days of the Soviet era are involved as well.




Mad and insane has nothing to do with necessity, desperation, business and greed


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Russia/china/Brazil and other Emerging nations who do not want to be under the control of USD are likely to be thinking of implementing maybe russo-sino petro currency.
> 
> If u study history, u will understand that the notion of russia joining NATO is not possible.




History? The thing with the past and the future is that they are always evolving. There is historical evidence that Kiev is 2000 years old.

The USSR would never join NATO, but a free and democratic Russia open to the world, without fear and paranoia could and would join the European Union and then NATO. Which would lead to a new world peace and demilitarization similar to the end of the Cold War.

Putin could have been a part of so much great change, instead he chose *history*.

Remove Putin and his cronies, and then Russia and Europe have a chance.


----------



## divs4ever

UMMmm , wasn't NATO formulated specifically  to resist/destroy the Soviet Union  ( NOT China , Afghanistan  , Yugoslavia  or Iraq )

 seems we have a pit-bull without any rival to fight ( in it's own backyard )



 BTW you should be more worried about a self-destructive EU ( i am )


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> UMMmm , wasn't NATO formulated specifically  to resist/destroy the Soviet Union  ( NOT China , Afghanistan  , Yugoslavia  or Iraq )
> 
> seems we have a pit-bull without any rival to fight ( in it's own backyard )
> 
> 
> 
> BTW you should be more worried about a self-destructive EU ( i am )




To stay relevant you must move and change with the times. 

Security in our daily lives is key to our well-being. NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.​​*POLITICAL* - NATO promotes democratic values and enables members to consult and cooperate on defence and security-related issues to solve problems, build trust and, in the long run, prevent conflict.​​*MILITARY* - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under the collective defence clause of NATO's founding treaty - Article 5 of the Washington Treaty or under a United Nations mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organisations.​
This is why I mentioned that Russia could  have joined the EU and NATO, if Putin had continued Russia's democratisation (there are a few articles written of this).









						What is NATO?
					

An introduction to NATO that provides basic information on what NATO is, member countries, the Alliance's key activities and how it functions. NATO's general evolution is shown in video and links to more in-depth information are provided throughout.




					www.nato.int


----------



## Sean K

bluekelah said:


> If u study history, u will understand that the notion of russia joining NATO is not possible.




Probably not, but could have been part of something better. A unified UE/Eurasia. Maybe wishful thinking. But as far as history is concerned, Russia was part of the Triple Entente and the Allies during the WWs. So, don't discount who gets into bed with who when it matters. My enemy's enemy if my friend and all that.  



divs4ever said:


> UMMmm , wasn't NATO formulated specifically  to resist/destroy the Soviet Union  ( NOT China , Afghanistan  , Yugoslavia  or Iraq )




Not sure about that Divs. Yes, NATO was, and is, primarily a defensive block against Russia/USSR, but I think it originated because of Russian expansion west and south, not because of the West trying to expand east. 

Afghan and Iraq is another story.


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> UMMmm , wasn't NATO formulated specifically  to resist/destroy the Soviet Union  ( NOT China , Afghanistan  , Yugoslavia  or Iraq )
> 
> seems we have a pit-bull without any rival to fight ( in it's own backyard )
> 
> 
> 
> BTW you should be more worried about a self-destructive EU ( i am )



I think EU completed its own self destruction here , already well engaged.
Any reasonable politician would have joined EU and the west inc as we have a common culture, 1000y old actually.
But the US dod not want that and i can not blame them succeeding in destroying EU
started in Kosovo, bombing serbs and pushing up Poland and Turkey against former EU leaders.
Europe is paying the price and US is probably the only country gaining anything from that mess.
As for Ukrainians whose gdp had already, before the war started, decreased by 25%..pray for them Biden's son salary?
Ukraine is by far the poorer country in the area, gdp a third of russians and much lower than any neighbours.
The mistake Putin did is that he expected to be welcomed as a liberator.bring more democracy..not kidding .. Ukraine is a corrupt rotten mafia..and actually real meaning..organised crime...
Anyway.it backfired.
More worried by the UK sending missile and paying the Ukrainian mercenaries and troops..i would see that as a war act...escalation always..until Russians will have no way out but to flatten the place...
Remember that european premiers took the train to Kiev🙄 3 weeks after the start of the invasion so was not, initially at least, a destruction aim.


----------



## Smurf1976

JohnDe said:


> "_Yelling and screaming doesnt solve problems._" History does not back up your comment.
> 
> Protests and demonstrations are an integral part of democracy.



Being a bit pedantic on my part but I'll argue that yelling and screaming of itself does not solve problems.

What it may achieve is to prompt the decision makers to solve it by other means, noting that they wouldn't have done so without the yelling and screaming but yelling and screaming of itself isn't the actual fix.

That's being pedantic I'll admit, and normally I dislike pedantic approaches quite strongly, but in this case I think the distinction needs making given the state of the world and how "tribal" debate seems to have become in recent times.


----------



## Sean K

Talk about the use of chemical weapons by Russia is concerning. Surely not. The World would have to respond to that sort of attack, not just NATO. I fear that if Russia gets bogged down and there’s a stalemate and siege of Kiev, Putin may be backed into a corner and have to do it. He can’t back down at this point and lose face. I think Ukraines resistance has surprised everyone. They’ve been underestimated, or Russia’s tactics have been very poor. Perhaps a combination.


----------



## bluekelah

Sean K said:


> Talk about the use of chemical weapons by Russia is concerning. Surely not. The World would have to respond to that sort of attack, not just NATO. I fear that if Russia gets bogged down and there’s a stalemate and siege of Kiev, Putin may be backed into a corner and have to do it. He can’t back down at this point and lose face. I think Ukraines resistance has surprised everyone. They’ve been underestimated, or Russia’s tactics have been very poor. Perhaps a combination.




Get the facts straight ..
It was just a fertiliser factory which was hit by Russian shelling on 21st march,  resulting in release of some ammonia gases, a component of chemical fertilisers , requiring civilians to stay indoors. 

So now the Americans are making up a task force to respond to possible chemical attacks. Lol...

So if the Russians somehow caused a nuclear leak by shelling one of the 15 nuclear reactors Ukraine has, then they will potentially use nuclear weapons? How about talk of nuclear response task force? 

Russians said they shelled it coz the Ukrainians had planted mines , ready to explode the ammonia should Russia invade the city and kill civilians then blame it on the Russians.  

That fertiliser factory is 226 hectares and makes 120000tonnes of fertiliser a year. 

LOL..  I think Russian fertiliser exports just got a boost in prices


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Get the facts straight ..
> 
> Russians said they shelled it coz the Ukrainians had planted mines , ready to explode the ammonia should Russia invade the city and kill civilians then blame it on the Russians.




*Where is your reference material?*


----------



## bluekelah

JohnDe said:


> *Where is your reference material?*



Think I read it here,









						Ammonia Leak Is Ukraine's 'Planned Provocation' To Falsely Accuse Russia Of Chemical Attack: Moscow
					

Ukraine's prosecutor general said the shelling caused a leak in a 50-tonne tank of ammonia that took hours to contain.




					www.ibtimes.com.au
				




''The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed late Sunday "nationalists" had "mined" ammonia and chlorine storage facilities at Sumykhimprom "with the aim of mass poisoning of residents of the Sumy region, in case of entry into the city of units of the Russian Armed Forces."'

was reported on some other news websites as well.

was part of the Russian counter-claims that Ukraine was planning on doing chemical/bioweapons/WMD attacks.


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> Mad and insane has nothing to do with necessity, desperation, business and greed



on the contrary  , the West have proven they will alter payment systems ( and access to them ) in other currencies , 
would you take debt notes ( promises to pay ) from a known dead-beat AND currency manipulator 

 i still think Russia should only accept payment  ( from untrusted customers ) in silver and gold ( delivered straight the the Russian Central bank , not that other paper confetti , certificates  )

 after all OTHERS can buy that oil , gas , fertilizer , neon gas , etc etc  , China has a BIG appetite  , and India is growing one  , and Pakistan  has room to grow as well


----------



## Sean K

bluekelah said:


> Get the facts straight ..




You are either not following this war, or deliberately flaming.


----------



## bluekelah

divs4ever said:


> on the contrary  , the West have proven they will alter payment systems ( and access to them ) in other currencies ,
> would you take debt notes ( promises to pay ) from a known dead-beat AND currency manipulator
> 
> i still think Russia should only accept payment  ( from untrusted customers ) in silver and gold ( delivered straight the the Russian Central bank , not that other paper confetti , certificates  )
> 
> after all OTHERS can buy that oil , gas , fertilizer , neon gas , etc etc  , China has a BIG appetite  , and India is growing one  , and Pakistan  has room to grow as well



This is a very informative video by Ray Dalio. Shows how in history world powers have had their reserve currencies and how they all follow the same path. Dutch gilder / British pound  and now US dollar, how they all eventually depreciate massively to gold. Next one he pegs is likely China as the next rising power and reserve currency 


I reckon thats pretty much where things are heading now with China already first in the world with a national digital currency, largest by value credit card system(UnionPay) and currently increasing use of their CIPS system(Chinese SWIFT) by Russia and other trading partners (mainly the BRICS emerging market nations. Also courting the Saudis/OPEC to pay in yuan for oil, potential Chinese petrodollar.)


----------



## divs4ever

RUSSIA JUST CHANGED THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM | HISTORY MADE​



 yep it all relies on trust ( good luck on trusting the right people)


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> You are either not following this war, or deliberately flaming.



Or maybe not taking any US/Ukrainian gov report as THE source of truth?

By the way,did the 3 premiers who took the train to Kiev after 3 weeks of intense war managed to find a night train ticket back.








						Polish, Czech and Slovenian leaders show support to Ukraine during Kyiv trip | DW | 15.03.2022
					

The Polish and Czech premiers pledged support for the country's independence after meeting with Ukrainian leadership in Kyiv, while Polish deputy PM Kaczynski called for a peacekeeping force to be sent to Ukraine.




					www.dw.com
				




What a farce....
But real people die.
Worse:
I am actually scared by Biden's insistence on chem weapons as it usually precedes a manipulation to show how clearvoyant the US are.

So I am now scared that this will be triggered.
There are no limits to evil and greed, and it is definitively not only spelt in Cyrillic


----------



## JohnDe

bluekelah said:


> Think I read it here,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ammonia Leak Is Ukraine's 'Planned Provocation' To Falsely Accuse Russia Of Chemical Attack: Moscow
> 
> 
> Ukraine's prosecutor general said the shelling caused a leak in a 50-tonne tank of ammonia that took hours to contain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ibtimes.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ''The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed late Sunday "nationalists" had "mined" ammonia and chlorine storage facilities at Sumykhimprom "with the aim of mass poisoning of residents of the Sumy region, in case of entry into the city of units of the Russian Armed Forces."'
> 
> was reported on some other news websites as well.
> 
> was part of the Russian counter-claims that Ukraine was planning on doing chemical/bioweapons/WMD attacks.




*So you believe the Russian account over the Ukrainian report because? *

_“As a result of the shelling 1 tank with ammonia was damaged,” Ukraine’s state emergency services said_​​_The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed late Sunday "nationalists" had "mined" ammonia and chlorine storage facilities at Sumykhimprom "with the aim of mass poisoning of residents of the Sumy region_​
The same Russian's that said that a Nuclear power station was mined, even though video footage showed differently. What about the Russian reports that Ukranian troops were bombing their own cities, and the video of a Russian tank firing on an apartment block? 

Proof is evidence. Russia keep telling stories of what has happened and what is happening, but they offer no proof. Propaganda is a tool of war, both sides are using it but Russia is the master of lies.









						Meet The Mysterious Duo Who Just Bought Newsweek
					

Johnathan Davis and Etienne Uzac The news that Newsweek had been sold to IBT Media was received by most of the media world over the weekend as the final, clinching evidence of the magazine's abasement. To be handed off to a publisher that even most people in the news business had [...]




					www.forbes.com


----------



## divs4ever

yes REAL people die , buildings are destroyed , assets ( commodities get wasted )

 being scared ( worried ) is OK , but use it as an incentive for extra planning  , and to search for opportunity  ( look for that silver lining )

 evil and greed it is UP to you to control those  issues in yourself  ( stop letting others control you with them )


----------



## divs4ever

i am more likely  to believe the Russian accounts because Kiev is still mostly intact  , Russia had the capacity to put hundreds of tank  ( and paratroopers ) in the centre of the city within 24 hours  of wishing to ( and apparently haven't 

 let's go back to the Iraq War ( part II)  one side was quite proud of the destruction they wrought  , filmed , televised it  and never showed any remorse  .. so either Russia is embarrassed by such things  ( unlike NATO ) or they  aren't blowing up much in comparison ( after all they opened 3 fronts simultaneously )

 BUT the first casualty of war is TRUTH , or as Sun Tzu said , 'all war is based on deception  '


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> i am more likely  to believe the Russian accounts because Kiev is still mostly intact  , Russia had the capacity to put hundreds of tank  ( and paratroopers ) in the centre of the city within 24 hours  of wishing to ( and apparently haven't
> 
> let's go back to the Iraq War ( part II)  one side was quite proud of the destruction they wrought  , filmed , televised it  and never showed any remorse  .. so either Russia is embarrassed by such things  ( unlike NATO ) or they  aren't blowing up much in comparison ( after all they opened 3 fronts simultaneously )
> 
> BUT the first casualty of war is TRUTH , or as Sun Tzu said , 'all war is based on deception  '





😆 😆 😆 😆 you keep putting your foot in it.

_"yep it all relies on trust ( good luck on trusting the right people)" "i am more likely  to believe the Russian accounts"_​


----------



## againsthegrain

there is 3m+ refugees that fled Ukraine so far,  I guess they are all paid Ukrainian propaganda trolls and their homes are all still there with the russians evene washing their windows and taking out the rubbish to keep them in top shape


----------



## divs4ever

i don't think the Ukraine is particularly  healthy at all , remember all the years various foreign aid has been flowing , right back to the Obama ( and Biden's $1 Billion ' sack the prosecutor or no aid ' moment ) AND if Russia stops using the Ukraine to transit gas through , it will take another economic hit ( if haven't seen any news about Russia  upgrading/maintaining that aging pipeline in the future )

the Russians hammered out an agreement  in 2015 that the West and Ukraine Government  never followed  for even a few months 

 now it will be interesting to see how many will be economic refugees ( moving to a more prosperous economy , that is liable to be permanent ) the ones seeking in refugee in Russia are more likely to return to the Ukraine after peace returns ( Russia isn't a quantum leap up the economic prosperity scale , so home will have it's appeal )

there is a real possibility the Ukraine will descend into a chaotic power vacuum ( like Libya ) , i would think both sides ( EU and Russia ) would prefer that didn't happen


----------



## JohnDe

divs4ever said:


> i don't think the Ukraine is particularly  healthy at all , remember all the years various foreign aid has been flowing , right back to the Obama ( and Biden's $1 Billion ' sack the prosecutor or no aid ' moment ) AND if Russia stops using the Ukraine to transit gas through , it will take another economic hit ( if haven't seen any news about Russia  upgrading/maintaining that aging pipeline in the future )
> 
> the Russians hammered out an agreement  in 2015 that the West and Ukraine Government  never followed  for even a few months
> 
> now it will be interesting to see how many will be economic refugees ( moving to a more prosperous economy , that is liable to be permanent ) the ones seeking in refugee in Russia are more likely to return to the Ukraine after peace returns ( Russia isn't a quantum leap up the economic prosperity scale , so home will have it's appeal )
> 
> there is a real possibility the Ukraine will descend into a chaotic power vacuum ( like Libya ) , i would think both sides ( EU and Russia ) would prefer that didn't happen




Lay a wager on that?


----------



## divs4ever

JohnDe said:


> Lay a wager on that?



no but let's see what happens  i see various concerns  that some of those refugees probably weren't born in the Ukraine  , flowing into the EU

also remember there is a fair-sized Greek ( ethnic ) community in the Ukraine  , so the whole thing could become rather complicated


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> Or maybe not taking any US/Ukrainian gov report as THE source of truth?




There are many more sources of information on this war than just the Russian, US, EU, UN or main stream media. What's your 'source of truth' qldfrog?


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## Dona Ferentes

Sean K said:


> There are many more sources of information on this war than just the Russian, US, EU, UN or main stream media. What's your 'source of truth' qldfrog?



good to see the frogster still having a go. He's got me on Ignore. Suits me.


----------



## JohnDe

Dona Ferentes said:


> good to see the frogster still having a go. He's got me on Ignore. Suits me.




Same, but I'm sure he uses another user name to read our posts  😆


----------



## JohnDe

Amnesty International Australia
					

Amnesty International Australia. 368,285 likes · 6,848 talking about this. We're a worldwide community of people who take injustice personally.




					www.facebook.com


----------



## Sean K

JohnDe said:


> View attachment 139481
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amnesty International Australia
> 
> 
> Amnesty International Australia. 368,285 likes · 6,848 talking about this. We're a worldwide community of people who take injustice personally.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.facebook.com












						Ukraine: Massive, urgent response needed to meet soaring needs
					

The humanitarian situation in Ukraine is increasingly dire and desperate, and the ICRC is scaling up its response by the hour to meet people’s vast needs.




					www.icrc.org
				












						Crisis in Ukraine | Oxfam International
					






					www.oxfam.org


----------



## investtrader

bluekelah said:


> Now wanting europe to pay for oil and gas in rubles  doesnt sound like a mad man , i believe the oligarchy and other big players from the days of the Soviet era are involved as well.
> 
> 
> https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2022/03/782659/putin-tells-europe-pay-gas-rubles
> 
> 
> 
> Russia/china/Brazil and other Emerging nations who do not want to be under the control of USD are likely to be thinking of implementing maybe russo-sino petro currency.
> 
> If u study history, u will understand that the notion of russia joining NATO is not possible.
> 
> More importantly, Most of the world is undergoing massive inflation now and likely a recession/stagflation soon as well ala 1970s again.
> 
> I have hedged my bets by getting more exposure to gold,  oil and other commodities stocks. It would be prudent to stock up on daily necessities as well as some fuel. Most younger Australians will not remember the days when we had 15percent interest rates and fuel shortages.



Russian troll ....


----------



## Value Collector

bluekelah said:


> Get the facts straight ..
> It was just a fertiliser factory which was hit by Russian shelling on 21st march,  resulting in release of some ammonia gases, a component of chemical fertilisers , requiring civilians to stay indoors.
> 
> So now the Americans are making up a task force to respond to possible chemical attacks. Lol...
> 
> So if the Russians somehow caused a nuclear leak by shelling one of the 15 nuclear reactors Ukraine has, then they will potentially use nuclear weapons? How about talk of nuclear response task force?
> 
> Russians said they shelled it coz the Ukrainians had planted mines , ready to explode the ammonia should Russia invade the city and kill civilians then blame it on the Russians.
> 
> That fertiliser factory is 226 hectares and makes 120000tonnes of fertiliser a year.
> 
> LOL..  I think Russian fertiliser exports just got a boost in prices



If a nuclear power plant was hit, it would definitely require a “radiological response task force”, and could definitely be considered an act of radiological warfare.

I am also not sure placing mines around a fertiliser factory would be an efficient way to cause a large explosion, Ammonium nitrate can certainly explode under the right conditions, because it is an oxidising agent but generally requires a fuel source to be present, a fire or explosion nearby is not guaranteed to cause it to explode unless other conditions are present, it is more likely to deflagrate than detonate.

But still purposefully shelling an ammonia plant is not very responsible, because they often are connected to natural gas pipes, and repeated shelling could cause a gas leak which could provide the fuel source new needed for detonation.


----------



## divs4ever

Value Collector said:


> If a nuclear power plant was hit, it would definitely require a “radiological response task force”, and could definitely be considered an act of radiological warfare.
> 
> I am also not sure placing mines around a fertiliser factory would be an efficient way to cause a large explosion, Ammonium nitrate can certainly explode under the right conditions, because it is an oxidising agent but generally requires a fuel source to be present, a fire or explosion nearby is not guaranteed to cause it to explode unless other conditions are present, it is more likely to deflagrate than detonate.
> 
> But still purposefully shelling an ammonia plant is not very responsible, because they often are connected to natural gas pipes, and repeated shelling could cause a gas leak which could provide the fuel source new needed for detonation.



 would almost tempt a 'madman'   to 'accidentally ' trip the explosion(s) and possibly take out the gas supply to the Ukraine ( and maybe even Germany/EU ) after all most of that infrastructure would be Soviet era  and  a little worn out ( and under-maintained )

 one side is desperate to get EU/NATO  reinforcements  and the other annoyed at the EU , that sounds like a dangerous mix already


----------



## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> would almost tempt a 'madman'   to 'accidentally ' trip the explosion(s) and possibly take out the gas supply to the Ukraine ( and maybe even Germany/EU ) after all most of that infrastructure would be Soviet era  and  a little worn out ( and under-maintained )
> 
> one side is desperate to get EU/NATO  reinforcements  and the other annoyed at the EU , that sounds like a dangerous mix already



Same as chem explosion or even bio labs ,which do not exist in Ukraine of course..except if you talk to congress and can not lie wo going to jail....


----------



## Joe Blow

investtrader said:


> Russian troll ....




For what it's worth, I can confirm that this person is located inside Australia.


----------



## JohnDe

Joe Blow said:


> For what it's worth, I can confirm that this person is located inside Australia.




Yes but he can still be a Russian Troll.


----------



## againsthegrain

The trolls from troll farms have access to vpns to make their origins show the same location where the current target is


----------



## Joe Blow

againsthegrain said:


> The trolls from troll farms have access to vpns to make their origins show the same location where the current target is




I see a lot of VPN use by spammers as I have banned a lot of countries from registering accounts at ASF so I am very familiar with the ISPs that are used by those located overseas to make themselves appear to be in Australia. I am not seeing any evidence of VPN use in this case.


----------



## JohnDe

I believe that he lives in Australia and that he is a Russian sympathiser. I have one in my circle of friends, brainwashed by his work mates that have family connections from that side of the world.


----------



## IFocus

Dona Ferentes said:


> good to see the frogster still having a go. He's got me on Ignore. Suits me.





Same, its works great both ways


----------



## JohnDe

> New phase of Ukraine war? Russia appears to shift focus​A quick recap.
> 
> Russian forces in Ukraine appear to have shifted their focus from a ground offensive aimed at Kyiv to instead prioritising what Moscow calls the liberation of the contested Donbas region, suggesting a new phase of the war.
> 
> It appears too early to know whether this means President Vladimir Putin has scaled back his ambitions in Ukraine, but Russian military moves this week indicate a recognition of the surprisingly stout Ukrainian resistance.
> 
> Russian-backed separatists have controlled part of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine since 2014.
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday again appealed to Russia to negotiate an end to the war, but he said Ukraine would not agree to give up any of its territory for the sake of peace.
> 
> Putin's forces are under great strain in many parts of the country, and the United States and other countries are accelerating their transfer of arms and supplies to Ukraine. In recent days, US officials have said they see evidence of Ukrainian defenders going on the offensive in a limited way in some areas.
> 
> Putting a positive face on it all, the deputy chief of the Russian general staff said his forces had largely achieved the “main objectives” of the first phase of what Moscow calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine.
> 
> _*The Associated Press*_












						Zelenskyy appeals for peace talks but says Ukraine won't give up any territory to Russia — as it happened
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian troops have succeeded in containing the Russian army, forcing the Kremlin to consider negotiations with his country.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Dona Ferentes

JohnDe said:


> New phase of Ukraine war? Russia appears to shift focus​A quick recap.



There is a sober view that the Russian ' shift' is a chimera; nothing but false narrative that conviniently overlooks the timeline. But mainstream media has lapped it up.

*From Understanding War *; 25 March




__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s primary objective is to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Sergei Rudskoi, first deputy chief of t




					www.understandingwar.org
				




*The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s primary objective is to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. *_Sergei Rudskoi, first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, gave a briefing to Russian press summing up the first month of the Russian invasion on March 25.[1] Rudskoi inaccurately claimed Russian forces have completed “the main tasks of the first stage of the operation,” falsely asserting that Russia has heavily degraded the Ukrainian military, enabling Russia to focus on the “main goal” of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts._

*Rudskoi’s comments were likely aimed mainly at a domestic Russian audience and do not accurately or completely capture current Russian war aims and planned operations. *Russia’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine from the outset was the fictitious threat Moscow claimed Ukrainian forces posed to the people in Russian-occupied Donbas. The Kremlin has reiterated this justification for the war frequently as part of efforts to explain the invasion to its people and build or sustain public support for Putin and the war. Rudskoi’s framing of the capture of the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as the “main goal” of the operation is in line with this ongoing information operation.

*Rudskoi’s assertion that securing the unoccupied portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts was always the main objective of Russia’s invasion is false. *The Kremlin’s initial campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine.[2] Rudskoi’s comments could indicate that Russia has scaled back its aims and would now be satisfied with controlling the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but that reading is likely inaccurate. Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine have not stopped fighting and have not entirely stopped attempting to advance and seize more territory. They are also attacking and destroying Ukrainian towns and cities, conducting operations and committing war crimes that do not accord with the objectives Rudskoi claims Russia is pursuing.

*Russia continues efforts to rebuild combat power and commit it to the fight to encircle and/or assault Kyiv and take Mariupol and other targets, despite repeated failures and setbacks and continuing Ukrainian counter-attacks. ......*


----------



## Sean K

JohnDe said:


> Zelenskyy appeals for peace talks but says Ukraine won't give up any territory to Russia — as it happened
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukrainian troops have succeeded in containing the Russian army, forcing the Kremlin to consider negotiations with his country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au




This was my initial assessment of what Russia were trying to do. The effort to the west was at least a diversion and the real aim is to take the eastern part of Ukraine as far as possible, potentially leaving a border down the Dnipro. I still think that's their strategic objective. Russia would prefer to have the whole of the Black Sea coast down to Moldova for themselves, but I'm not sure if they'll get there.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## Belli

A view from a former military contractor.



From a reference in a previous vid of his which indicated the increasing shortage of precision guided munitions is a possible reason for the use of dumb bombs by the Russian military.  Apparently those PGMs had a high failure rate of up to 60%.  I guess that indicates the quality control is lacking along with poor manufacturing processes.  Oddly enough they require imported items such as microchips and parts.  Bit difficult to make more if a number of countries won't trade with you.


----------



## Stockbailx

One thing that seriously bugs me about this conflict, (after doing my fair share DYOR) is the amount of neglect that NATO and the US (west) have given to Ukraine, considering their on their bare arse against the Russians. Not been given a no fly zone or troops, exculpating the moral support as limited to none. I'm very disgusted and NOT impressed.
There's sum sort of bitch about chemical weapons and nukes. Well personally don't take it to heart, but they don't have to exsist, they wouldn't want to know about it. Your got two fora-rds (USSR/USA) Country's, making claims to Nukes and chemical Weapons. When their just playing with them self's, what sort of C***ckhead, put there defence force on the back of Nukes. Its bloody insane and hypercritical. You might as well suck eggs...

God bless, Poland for their defiance against the EU/NATO in support for Ukraine, against the Russians and wanting to fight on for Ukraine and take Russia to war. Not scared of any feathered nuke.

Have a listen to this dribble from Biden, yesterday, in Poland. Supports, my theory that the west has no idea. To much of the UK monarchy going on and the rest! ( coward )...


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> One thing that seriously bugs me about this conflict, (after doing my fair share DYOR) is the amount of neglect that NATO and the US (west) have given to Ukraine, considering their on their bare arse against the Russians. Not been given a no fly zone or troops, exculpating the moral support as limited to none. I'm very disgusted and NOT impressed.
> There's sum sort of bitch about chemical weapons and nukes. Well personally don't take it to heart, but they don't have to exsist, they wouldn't want to know about it. Your got two fora-rds (USSR/USA) Country's, making claims to Nukes and chemical Weapons. When their just playing with them self's, what sort of C***ckhead, put there defence force on the back of Nukes. Its bloody insane and hypercritical. You might as well suck eggs...
> 
> God bless, Poland for their defiance against the EU/NATO in support for Ukraine, against the Russians and wanting to fight on for Ukraine and take Russia to war. Not scared of any feathered nuke.
> 
> Have a listen to this dribble from Biden, yesterday, in Poland. Supports, my theory that the west has no idea. To much of the UK monarchy going on and the rest! ( coward )...




Hate to burst your buble but he could of given Ukraine cridit. The bloke doesn't have any idea about how to look after democracy or speek foR the west he's, a bewailed little kid. Running from the fight, speaking no immaterial matter at hand, with his psycho dribble about everthing else.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Stockybailz said:


> Hate to burst your *buble*



Michael ?


Stockybailz said:


> but he could of given Ukraine *cridit*.



я не понимаю


Stockybailz said:


> The bloke doesn't have any idea about how to look after democracy or *speek foR* the west he's, a bewailed little kid.



я не понимаюя


Stockybailz said:


> Running from the fight, speaking no immaterial matter at hand, with his psycho dribble about *everthing *else.



я не понимаю


----------



## Stockbailx




----------



## JohnDe




----------



## waterbottle

Ukraine now offering neutrality and willing to cede Donbass!!! Sounds like a disaster for Ukraine - neutrality should have been the original position but now they're about to lose land too and there's no telling if that's going to be enough for Russia. 











						Ukraine ready to discuss adopting neutral status in Russia peace deal, Zelenskiy says
					

Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia but such a pact would have to be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in remarks aired on Sunday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## JohnDe

waterbottle said:


> Ukraine now offering neutrality and willing to cede Donbass!!! Sounds like a disaster for Ukraine - neutrality should have been the original position but now they're about to lose land too and there's no telling if that's going to be enough for Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine ready to discuss adopting neutral status in Russia peace deal, Zelenskiy says
> 
> 
> Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia but such a pact would have to be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in remarks aired on Sunday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com




_Zelenskiy said no peace deal would be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals.

He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a “compromise” over the eastern Donbas region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014._


----------



## waterbottle

Yes a disaster.

Zelensky has whipped up Ukrainian nationalism only to now, 1 month later, willingly offer to cede territory to an invading force.

I doubt any Ukrainian patriot would swallow such a deal. If it were successful, I wouldnt be surprised if Zelensky is booted out for ceding Ukrainian land after all of his populist rhetoric - which would only benefit the Russians!


----------



## sptrawler

waterbottle said:


> Yes a disaster.
> 
> Zelensky has whipped up Ukrainian nationalism only to now, 1 month later, willingly offer to cede territory to an invading force.
> 
> I doubt any Ukrainian patriot would swallow such a deal. If it were successful, I wouldnt be surprised if Zelensky is booted out for ceding Ukrainian land after all of his populist rhetoric - which would only benefit the Russians!



I guess he is running out of options, if the two alternatives are cede a section of the country that is under constant dispute, or lose the whole country.
I'm sure they would continue to put up a hell of a fight, but the outcome wouldn't change, eventually Russia would win just with weight of  numbers and resources. 
So how many lives does the guy sacrifice in the name of pride and honor, sad but reality unfortunately IMO.
The World isn't going to step in and Putin isn't going to step over the line obviously, so it would just be a death by a thousand cuts.

Just my thoughts, the whole incident is sad and just a reminder that human nature doesn't change. We can gloss it over and we can pretend that we can all live together in perfect harmony, but the fact is we are all different and not everyone is nice.


----------



## JohnDe

waterbottle said:


> Yes a disaster.
> 
> Zelensky has whipped up Ukrainian nationalism only to now, 1 month later, willingly offer to cede territory to an invading force.
> 
> I doubt any Ukrainian patriot would swallow such a deal. If it were successful, I wouldnt be surprised if Zelensky is booted out for ceding Ukrainian land after all of his populist rhetoric - which would only benefit the Russians!




That’s what happens when you invade  a proud & strong nation, you (Russia) get your arse kicked & a bloody nose.

No winners here, Putin has seriously miscalculated and weakened his nation.


----------



## StockyGuy

JohnDe said:


>





Seeing now news of the rapes coming out, I shudder to think there's possibly some sinister insinuation inherent in the ridiculous term "denazification" that the Russian leadership doesn't mind so much if soldiers rape Ukrainian women.  Ie, what the Red Army was  famous for doing to German civilian women in 1945.


----------



## Stockbailx

_General Patton was right. We had the army in place in Europe after we defeated Germany. Patton wanted to keep going all the way to Moscow. He said we’re gonna have to fight them sooner or later let’s get it over with now.._

It's pretty disheartening to listen to this press conference with NATO security general. Sure they say the supports going in to Ukraine, toughing up the NATO borders to the east of Ukraine and so on...Poland offering a peace keeping force, but even that was rejected.
There's a lot of hype about chemical weapons and nukes, scaring the free world of a stance or deterrent against Russia. 

Bad diplomacy between the US/RUSSIA (cold war). Which sux, I want to see the US/NATO stand up to Putin and put to he's knees, begging forgiveness. And put a end to his rule...I don't like the diligence that Biden brings to the table...God Bless and go in to Ukrainian territory and fight for their freedom...


----------



## againsthegrain

StockyGuy said:


> Seeing now news of the rapes coming out, I shudder to think there's possibly some sinister insinuation inherent in the ridiculous term "denazification" that the Russian leadership doesn't mind so much if soldiers rape Ukrainian women.  Ie, what the Red Army was  famous for doing to German civilian women in 1945.




Alot of people who lived through ww2 in Eastern Europe have said that when the Russians came to "free" them they were much worse then Germans. Nothing has changed


----------



## Stockbailx

Here's video demonstrating, my disgust with Biden and his Influence over NATO. To scared to defend Ukraine from abomination, because it looks like that is were its heading because US/NATO wont step in with forces and help literally...His own country men dissing him like I do, on American fox news...Talking about the cowards dribble he speaks in Europe over the week end...


----------



## qldfrog

Stockybailz said:


> _General Patton was right. We had the army in place in Europe after we defeated Germany. Patton wanted to keep going all the way to Moscow. He said we’re gonna have to fight them sooner or later let’s get it over with now.._
> 
> It's pretty disheartening to listen to this press conference with NATO security general. Sure they say the supports going in to Ukraine, toughing up the NATO borders to the east of Ukraine and so on...Poland offering a peace keeping force, but even that was rejected.
> There's a lot of hype about chemical weapons and nukes, scaring the free world of a stance or deterrent against Russia.
> 
> Bad diplomacy between the US/RUSSIA (cold war). Which sux, I want to see the US/NATO stand up to Putin and put to he's knees, begging forgiveness. And put a end to his rule...I don't like the diligence that Biden brings to the table...God Bless and go in to Ukrainian territory and fight for their freedom...




Feel free to travel and fight there, you will be provided weapons free of charge ....


----------



## Stockbailx

qldfrog said:


> Feel free to travel and fight there, you will be provided weapons free of charge ....



The way I carry on I should take that up!


----------



## qldfrog

Stockybailz said:


> The way I carry on I should take that up!



I read somewhere that the US was ready to fight the Russians..to the last Ukrainian.
With China installing bases now in Png and Salomon islands, we might soon see our armchair warriors faced to the real thing.
It is my belief..and for example H. Kissinger and other more informed people than me , that Nato provoked that war.i have not forgotten h8llary speeches before Trump elections so once Biden was in....
Ukraine could have followed Finland and be neutral.
But Biden son's was already working against that during Obama
Results people die, Ukraine which was mafia ridden, and the poorer of all European countries ( imagine being topped by Romania...) Will end up devastated and EU is absolutely slaughtered economically.
There is a key winner China, 
the US may win by destroying the EU but only if they push Putin aside..and so push Xi ultimately otherwise USA basically have lost #1 position and the USD will freefall.
A bit saddened to see relics of the cold war still waving their commie war of last generation,
 while the watermelons are taking over the west, the Reset which is global socialist advancing at a scary speed and generally the muslim integrists gaining ground yearly 
Choose your enemy more wisely imho.
This thread is toxic...i think thread can be ignored, w8ll be better for me, and for the ABC/ Fox news crowds🥴


----------



## Stockbailx

I can't help but to respond to your post @qldfrog ....Couldn't get a quote...

The US was ready to fight the Russians but the President Bidin was not!
As for China their not a threat, Because Australia is a monarchy, the Chinese are ridiculed by this and take it for granted. China just moving forward. And the Australian Politicians are intimidated by this, because there nonequivalent. Australia needs to change to keep up with the real world. ( reality check ). China's not a winner, Australia's US are just losers.
NATO didn't provoke the war. They tried to step in and with what would of been the prevention of dictator Putin having rule and conquest against Ukraine. A past president re-neg-ed on a deal with NATO and the EU and shock hands with Putin, causing big protest from Ukrainian forcing him to leave the country. Ever since then Russia's Putin been docking on the door, and now war starts.

But your right this thread is toxic?


----------



## JohnDe

Ukrainian forces showed off three tanks they captured after retaking control of Lukyanivka, a village 60 kilometers east of Kyiv, from the Russian Army. RFE/RL journalists visited the village on March 27, three days after what a resident said was fierce fighting.


----------



## Jeda

qldfrog said:


> Ukraine could have followed Finland and be neutral.
> 
> This thread is toxic...i think thread can be ignored, w8ll be better for me, and for the ABC/ Fox news crowds🥴




That may have changed  ✌️ quote from one of many articles (Until now, Finns felt they didn't need the mutual defense guarantee of NATO allies, with a majority of the population consistently rejecting any suggestion of seeking membership. That was until February 24 — when Russia attacked Ukraine. Suddenly, according to a poll commissioned by the national broadcaster respondents want to join)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Quite an interesting interview with Andrei Soldatov yesterday on DW , Deutsche Welle, the German Public Broadcaster.

Soldatov is an investigative journalist. It is a good and salutary insight in to Putin, his view of Ukraine, the War, his army, agencies and ministers, and the Russian people at this time. 



gg


----------



## Belli

Delivered in a very droll manner.


----------



## JohnDe

I thought pretty much the same when I heard his last speech, his previous speeches gave me no confidence for Ukraine. I hope his advisors are strong and true to the end game.



> *What Joe Biden’s gaffe says about his end-game in Ukraine*
> 
> *Nine ad-libbed words mask his caution in dealing with Vladimir Putin*
> 
> “Iam a gaffe machine,” Joe Biden once admitted, disarmingly. For proof consider his speech in Warsaw on March 26th. Vladimir Putin’s carnage in Ukraine was part of a global “battle between democracy and autocracy”, he declared, closing with an impromptu line: “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” Was Mr Biden advocating regime change in Russia? No, his aides hastened to say, soon followed by the president himself.
> 
> The political gaffe, the commentator Michael Kinsley memorably observed, is when a politician inadvertently speaks the truth. Mr Biden’s many slips often involve him getting muddled or, as in 2012, being unable to catch a double entendre. Seeking to cast Barack Obama as a hard man of world affairs, the then vice-president cited Teddy Roosevelt’s dictum about speaking softly and carrying a big stick. “I promise you, the president has a big stick.”
> 
> Mr Biden’s words in Warsaw were different, deliberate and in keeping with insults—“war criminal”, “butcher”—he has been hurling at Russia’s leader. Critics charge that, in suggesting he seeks Mr Putin’s downfall, Mr Biden will harden Russia’s resolve on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. This misses the mark. The reproach rings especially hollow coming from Republicans who still bow to the dangerously wayward and Putin-loving Donald Trump. (On March 29th he urged Mr Putin to reveal dirt on the Biden family.) There is little doubt the world would be better without Mr Putin; and he already thinks America is out to get him.
> 
> Rather, Mr Biden’s failing in Warsaw is what might be called the Reverse Roosevelt Doctrine: speak loudly and carry a small stick. To Poles and Ukrainians in the audience, Mr Biden’s most fervent lines carried disturbing implications. Telling Mr Putin “don’t even think about moving on one single inch of nato territory” sounds like giving him carte blanche to do his worst in Ukrainian territory. “We need to steel ourselves for the long fight ahead” implies that he will do nothing to stop horrors quickly.
> 
> The parallels he drew—the Hungarian uprising of 1956, the Prague spring of 1968 and Solidarity’s strikes in Poland in 1980—all referred to events behind the iron curtain, where America had little influence. Mr Biden did not mention, say, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 or Serbian atrocities in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, which America halted through military action. Intervention in Ukraine, Mr Biden says, would risk “World War III”.
> 
> Finding a course between preventing Russia’s takeover of Ukraine and averting nuclear escalation involves much semantic and legal contortion. What weaponry is defensive, or what action escalatory? Mr Biden sends Ukraine anti-tank weapons, but not tanks; anti-aircraft missiles but not military aircraft. He is at pains to say what he will not do: no to American troops on the ground, no to no-fly zones. His response to Mr Putin’s madman nuclear threats is reassurance that America will not get involved. Mr Biden invoked the words of the late Polish pope, John Paul II, “Be not afraid.” Yet it is the president who seems frightened of tangling with Mr Putin, not the other way around.
> 
> How to explain this caution? The first and most obvious reason is that Russia has a bigger stockpile of nuclear weapons than America does, and a greater doctrinal propensity to use them. Even Mr Biden’s fiercest critics agree that getting into a war with Russia would be a bad idea. The second factor is Mr Biden’s aversion to America’s over-reliance on force, given the quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan. Military action should be a last resort, not the first, he thinks; and should be used only when vital interests are at stake. His economic sanctions on Russia, he believes, are “a new kind of economic statecraft with the power to inflict damage that rivals military might”.
> 
> Left unsaid is that Ukraine is probably not as important to Mr Biden as, say, Taiwan. America sees Russia as a disrupter, and China as the only challenger to its supremacy. Another of Mr Biden’s gaffes last year is telling. Asked whether America would defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack, he replied: “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.” The White House rushed to clarify that the president intended no change in America’s “one-China” policy, or its doctrine of “strategic ambiguity” about defending the island. For Taiwan, then, Mr Biden does seem ready to risk nuclear war.
> 
> A cynical possibility, which many Ukrainians believe, is that Mr Biden wants a drawn-out war to exhaust Russia, at the cost of much Ukrainian blood. That may be too Machiavellian. There is little sign that the Biden administration has thought much about the end-game. It says it will not dictate the terms that Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, should accept. This is disingenuous given that Mr Biden in effect sets limits on what Ukraine can achieve. If Mr Zelensky does not have the weapons with which to evict Russian forces, he will have to give up territory; if nato will not admit Ukraine, he will have to accept neutrality.
> 
> *Shoot the bear?*
> Now that Russia is bleeding in the battlefield, prominent Americans want Mr Biden to go all-out to help Mr Zelensky rout the Russian army. Victory would revitalise democracy and might even bring down Mr Putin. Mr Biden, however, prefers the long game. Ukraine is bravely holding its ground, Russia is being weakened and China is paying a political cost for embracing Mr Putin. Only Russia’s leader knows what would make him resort to nuclear weapons, but a senior American defence official thinks the triggers probably include “the prospect of all-out conventional defeat of Russia’s military” or a threat to the Russian state (in other words, a threat to Mr Putin).
> 
> What about Mr Biden’s chin-jutting in Warsaw? It is probably moral outrage, as he says, with perhaps some cheap rhetoric. The president may be loose in his tough talk, and cautious to a fault in his actions. But in the nuclear age that is surely better than emulating a swashbuckling militarist like Teddy Roosevelt.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## Stockbailx

Trouble in paradise, Chechen's join the Russian forces in Ukraine? or are they fighting for Ukraine? Whats going on with Russian Gas?


----------



## bigdog

Vladimir Putin, plagued by thyroid cancer rumours, is ‘constantly’ accompanied by doctors​A new investigative report has uncovered clues that Vladimir Putin might be suffering from a serious medical problem.

Chilling new clues have stoked speculation that Vladimir Putin may be suffering from thyroid cancer or Parkinson’s disease.
The Russian leader remains tight-lipped about his health but recent public appearances where he seemed “bloated” and “weakened” have sparked rumours about his physical state, _The Sun_ reports.

The appearance of the 69-year-old who has long prided himself on his “strong man” image, has changed dramatically in the past few years.

And now a new investigation has revealed the tyrant is “constantly” accompanied by a doctor who specialises in thyroid cancer.

The report by _Proekt_ media – which is blocked in Russia – states that surgeon Yevgeny Selivanov, of Moscow’s Central Clinical Hospital, has flown to the Russian leader no less than 35 times in the Black Sea resort Sochi.

The respected doctor’s area of expertise is thyroid cancer.


The discovery backs up recent theories that Putin declared war when he was suffering medical problems hidden from the Russian people.

Back in November 2020, political analyst Valery Solovei revealed the cancer and Parkinson’s theory claiming that Putin also needed to have emergency surgery.

He said at the time of Putin’s health issues: “One is of psycho-neurological nature, the other is a cancer problem.

“If anyone is interested in the exact diagnosis, I’m not a doctor, and I have no ethical right to reveal these problems.

“The second diagnosis is a lot, lot more dangerous than the first-named diagnosis as Parkinson’s does not threaten physical state, but just limits public appearances.

“But there is a fatal diagnosis.

“Based on this information people will be able to make a conclusion about his life horizon, which wouldn’t even require specialist medical education.”

He added that the Russian President had undergone surgery, with another source claiming it was an abdominal cancer operation.

Video footage showed Putin’s leg moving constantly and his fingers twitching, backing the Parkinson’s theory.

Putin also suffered a coughing fit during a televised meeting but the claims about his health were disputed by Kremlin.

The report continues to identify medics who regularly travel with Putin on trips, especially in Sochi, which he prefers to Moscow.

Alongside Selivanov the Russian leader is also followed by a neurosurgeon.

Another surgeon, Dr Alexey Shcheglov, “follows Putin so relentlessly that during public events he allegedly gets into joint photographs with the head of state.”

He is seen as “the doctor who, among other things, can be the first to detect problems with the thyroid gland, including oncological ones”, it is claimed.

There has been widespread speculation in the West that Putin had serious medical issues when he launched a war in Ukraine that estimates say killed 17,000 Russian troops plus many Ukrainian defenders and civilians.

Intelligence sources previously suggested that the bloated face of the Russian dictator as well as his lust for violence may be caused by steroid treatment for cancer.


----------



## Country Lad

bigdog said:


> ​
> “One is of psycho-neurological nature,



Probably doesn't need a brain surgeon to arrive at that painfully obvious conclusion.


----------



## mullokintyre

divs4ever said:


> i don't think the Ukraine is particularly  healthy at all , remember all the years various foreign aid has been flowing , right back to the Obama ( and Biden's $1 Billion ' sack the prosecutor or no aid ' moment ) AND if Russia stops using the Ukraine to transit gas through , it will take another economic hit ( if haven't seen any news about Russia  upgrading/maintaining that aging pipeline in the future )
> 
> the Russians hammered out an agreement  in 2015 that the West and Ukraine Government  never followed  for even a few months
> 
> now it will be interesting to see how many will be economic refugees ( moving to a more prosperous economy , that is liable to be permanent ) the ones seeking in refugee in Russia are more likely to return to the Ukraine after peace returns ( Russia isn't a quantum leap up the economic prosperity scale , so home will have it's appeal )
> 
> there is a real possibility the Ukraine will descend into a chaotic power vacuum ( like Libya ) , i would think both sides ( EU and Russia ) would prefer that didn't happen



Anecdotal evidence can sometimes be  a false leader, but on the strength of it coming from one person I will put it out there.
I was talking to mate of mine on the weekend who is Polish by birth, and speaks Polish as well as Russian and a few other languages.
He was telling me about the  period just after Poland joined the EU.
All the young ambitious, educated people went throughout the EU seeking better lives, and a whole chunk of a young generation was lost.
His relatives in Poland told him that Polish employees are heading to the border seeking specific  skills from the  millions of refugees.
They themselves recruited two young bakers as well as their families to come and work in the village where they lived, with the village providing accomodation, clothes for the kids etc, in the hope they will stay in those villages  for a long time.
Others have recruited teachers, engineers, doctors, just about anyone with skill or tertiary education will be offered work and accomodation.
Their advice to Ukraine was to not join the EU, as the downside  far outweighs the upside.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

Poland must not know how to leverage the best out of being part of the EU. I still have family in Europe and they have all done well with being part of the EU, both in easy travel and profitability with work and creating businesses that can easily cross borders. 

The increased security by combining resources is a factor for many nations in Europe, especially with what is happening now.

My Polish mate tells me that they have never trusted the Russians, or the Germans. And it it the Germans that made Russia rich and emboldened Putin.


----------



## againsthegrain

JohnDe said:


> Poland must not know how to leverage the best out of being part of the EU. I still have family in Europe and they have all done well with being part of the EU, both in easy travel and profitability with work and creating businesses that can easily cross borders.
> 
> The increased security by combining resources is a factor for many nations in Europe, especially with what is happening now.
> 
> My Polish mate tells me that they have never trusted the Russians, or the Germans. And it it the Germans that made Russia rich and emboldened Putin.




Historically it has always been the case. During the Warsaw uprising during ww2 the russian troops watched for 2 months as germans levelled the capital to the ground.  After everything was destroyed the russian troops only then moved in to liberate Poland.


----------



## JohnDe

againsthegrain said:


> Historically it has always been the case. During the Warsaw uprising during ww2 the russian troops watched for 2 months as germans levelled the capital to the ground.  After everything was destroyed the russian troops only then moved in to liberate Poland.




Yes, my polish mate said that both Germany & Russia have screwed them over, He also told me that many people were angry at Germany for going ahead with the gas pipeline, they understood what problems could occur. The Polish government built a LNG port instead of a pipeline, so that they were not reliant on Russia.


----------



## Sean K

Russia has committed war crimes and must pay.

The Westphalian system is at risk if this is allowed to go on.

MAD means there must be a measured response, but there must be something greater. Europe, and especially Germany, has allowed this to occur due to their hangover from WW2, and race to renewables, but it's time they stand back up on the right side of history.

In the Aus:



> Moscow has called for a special UN Security Council meeting to address claims that Russian forces committed atrocities against Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, a town outside Kyiv.
> 
> “In the light of heinous provocation of Ukrainian radicals in #Bucha Russia requested a meeting of UN #SecurityCouncil on Monday April 4,” Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, said on Twitter.
> 
> Global outrage at accusations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine have mounted with the discovery of mass graves and corpses in streets near Kyiv, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly blamed leaders in Moscow for the “torture” and “killings” of civilians.
> 
> Britain, France, Germany, the United States, NATO and the United Nations all voiced horror and revulsion at the reports of civilians being murdered in Bucha, northwest of the capital, with the atrocities prompting vows of action at the International Criminal Court.
> 
> Russia denied the accusations and said Ukraine staged footage of the corpses.


----------



## againsthegrain

Sean K said:


> Russia has committed war crimes and must pay.
> 
> The Westphalian system is at risk if this is allowed to go on.
> 
> MAD means there must be a measured response, but there must be something greater. Europe, and especially Germany, has allowed this to occur due to their hangover from WW2, and race to renewables, but it's time they stand back up on the right side of history.
> 
> In the Aus:




This is a bit of a escalation form outside the box.  Quiet a escalation tho, things are sliding more just as I thought they might stabilise a bit


----------



## rederob

Sean K said:


> Russia has committed war crimes and must pay.
> The Westphalian system is at risk if this is allowed to go on.



War crimes have nothing to do with the Westphalian system, and wrt Ukraine, 2014 saw Russia take control of Crimea, so it's just a principle that's often broken and leads to border clashes and wars.  In the context of your comment, "it's been allowed to go on for 8 years!"


Sean K said:


> MAD means there must be a measured response...



No it doesn't.  Attacking nations determine what weapons they will use, and an equal response is reasonable.  Who gets involved in defending against an attack is somewhat immaterial.  NATO broke their own charter in not defending European democracies when they opted out of assisting Ukraine militarily.  


Sean K said:


> ... but there must be something greater.



Nope!  Once MAD is invoked it's pretty much game over.


Sean K said:


> Europe, and especially Germany, has allowed this to occur due to their hangover from WW2, and race to renewables, but it's time they stand back up on the right side of history.



Really?
I joined the dots and ended up in New Zealand, or was it Swaziland.
The contention that Trump won the 2020 Presidential election is more credible than you ideas.


----------



## Craton

From this month or so old Time article:


> The rules have changed over the decades as technology has advanced. Amendments to the Geneva Convention adopted in 1949, for example, make clear that civilians should never be a target in war and that prisoners of war must be treated with adequate care.



So thinking about war crimes and I'm wondering how the Law of War or rules of war (also known as international humanitarian law or the law of armed conflict) even applies as Russia/Putin has named this as a so called "special military operation", how does "jus ad bellium" and "jus in bello" even apply?

By not declaring war, is this how Putin circumnavigates around the Geneva Convention and war crimes et al scenario?
As a UN security council member, does Russia's and hence Putin's power of veto make any legitimate war crime claim against Russia, just a lame duck?


----------



## rederob

Craton said:


> ... how does "jus ad bellium" and "jus in bello" even apply?



They are *different *things and IHL applies to* jus in belllo* (ie., *what occurs during armed conflict*), rather than how parties want to describe the nature of the conflict itself ie., _jus ad bellium_.


Craton said:


> By not declaring war, is this how Putin circumnavigates around the Geneva Convention and war crimes et al scenario?
> As a UN security council member, does Russia's and hence Putin's power of veto make any legitimate war crime claim against Russia, just a lame duck?



I can't see how Putin is protected in any way from international action against him.  However, who exactly would enter Russia to put him on trial?


----------



## JohnDe

rederob said:


> However, who exactly would enter Russia to put him on trial?




That is the question on everyone’s lips.


----------



## Craton

rederob said:


> They are *different *things and IHL applies to* jus in belllo* (ie., *what occurs during armed conflict*), rather than how parties want to describe the nature of the conflict itself ie., _jus ad bellium_.



Yes but I’m trying to understand, how was jus ad bellium determined between Putin and Ukraine?

If there’s no declaration of war, jus ad bellium, how can jus in bello be applied?

I assume that jus in bello, IHL, applies in any armed conflict regardless.


rederob said:


> I can't see how Putin is protected in any way from international action against him.
> However, who exactly would enter Russia to put him on trial?




That’s easy, Seal Team Six


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Rule 303


----------



## rederob

Craton said:


> Yes but I’m trying to understand, how was jus ad bellium determined between Putin and Ukraine?



_*Jus ad bellum*_ refers to the conditions under which a nation may resort to war, or to force in general, so it can be applied to any conflict without a war necessarily being declared.  The term seems to have been invented to suggest there are such things as "just" or righteous wars or conflicts, which I am sure every belligerent would claim to be the case.  Putin, for example, claims to be ridding Ukraine of Nazis, which is superficially justifiable ... except there are most likely many more Nazis in Russia itself!

America declared a War on Terror, yet invaded a whole nation rather than confined its attack on terrorist elements.  The Iraq War had an equally appealing rationale, but lacked credibility.


----------



## Craton

rederob said:


> _*Jus ad bellum*_ refers to the conditions under which a nation may resort to war, or to force in general, so it can be applied to any conflict without a war necessarily being declared.  The term seems to have been invented to suggest there are such things as "just" or righteous wars or conflicts, which I am sure every belligerent would claim to be the case.  Putin, for example, claims to be ridding Ukraine of Nazis, which is superficially justifiable ... except there are most likely many more Nazis in Russia itself!
> 
> America declared a War on Terror, yet invaded a whole nation rather than confined its attack on terrorist elements.  The Iraq War had an equally appealing rationale, but lacked credibility.



Thanks, that confirms my thinking in that any excuse will do for a "just cause".


----------



## Stockbailx

More dirt on the Biden Administration; Just want to display my discuss with Biden and the way his led NATO and the EU not to confront the Russian forces, but to dance around the invasion and leave Ukraine out to dry without a no fly zone...i don't think he's a competent person, leading Australia into dismay around it's policy to China...A filthily individual that passed his overdue date and should be espied.

The Biden Crime family on the wrong side of the fence. A corrupt Biden, that thinks and says he knows the enemy, but really he's just apart of it... Say's he knows Putin, but really there kissing cousins...


----------



## JohnDe

Stockybailz said:


> ... to dance around the invasion and leave Ukraine out to dry without a no fly zone...i don't think he's a competent person, leading Australia into dismay around it's policy to China...A filthily individual that passed his overdue date and should be espied.




I believe that Biden has made quite a few verbal blunders that cause issues, but what would happen if NATO countries did start shooting down Russian planes, and then Russia took that as a declaration of war and launched their nuclear missiles into those countries?


----------



## Stockbailx

JohnDe said:


> I believe that Biden has made quite a few verbal blunders that cause issues, but what would happen if NATO countries did start shooting down Russian planes, and then Russia took that as a declaration of war and launched their nuclear missiles into those countries?



I must admit that puts me in my place. But I have a hard time reasoning or recognizing to that fact. It's past tenth's and I should let by gone's be by gone's. And roll with the punches. As long as Ukraine get the better of Putin and win the war for their Independence and liberty as a sovereignty free nation. despite the repercussions, I fell Ukraine have been ripped off. The infrastructure damage is a bit much...I thinks the nuke's are just politics...


----------



## JohnDe

Stockybailz said:


> I must admit that puts me in my place. But I have a hard time reasoning or recognizing to that fact. It's past tenth's and I should let by gone's be by gone's. And roll with the punches. As long as Ukraine get the better of Putin and win the war for their Independence and liberty as a sovereignty free nation. despite the repercussions, I fell Ukraine have been ripped off. The infrastructure damage is a bit much...I thinks the nuke's are just politics...




What the west can do is to supply weapons and aircraft to Ukraine, and not to back off on the economic sanctions, thinking that Putin is giving up.


----------



## JohnDe

> Kremlin-backed mercenaries employed by the Wagner Group have been pictured for the first time in Ukraine after defence officials warned that more than 1,000 fighters had been deployed.
> 
> Images circulated yesterday showed a soldier from the shadowy private army standing in front of the Park Inn hotel in Donetsk. He carries an AK-15, an assault rifle used by Russian special forces, and wears the grinning skull of the Wagner insignia on his uniform.
> 
> The photograph was published by Semyon Pegov, a pro-Kremlin war correspondent, who has been embedded with Russian forces in Ukraine.
> 
> Wagner is a private militia run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of President Putin’s closest allies. It operates as an arm’s-length branch of the state to offer the Kremlin plausible deniability for activities it does not want to be associated with. Its motto is said to be: “Death is our business and business is good.”
> 
> “The GRU [Russian military intelligence] use Wagner as their deniable dirty operations troops,” said Philip Ingram, a former British intelligence officer. The fact that they are using AK-15s, the Spetsnaz’s new assault rifle, is a clear indication that they are being contracted and commanded by Russian special forces.”


----------



## Craton

10 reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine.

Reason10 is interesting, population decline. Russia has four million less than 1992.


----------



## Bill M

Russians think the invasion is a good idea. Free land one woman says, unbelievable.


----------



## basilio

Sobering story of the Russian invasion of a small Ukraine town now liberated.  In depth reportage.









						‘Barbarians’: Russian troops leave grisly mark on town of Trostianets
					

On a two-day visit, the Guardian found evidence of summary executions, torture and looting




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes

and another festering issue. Moldova .... and Transnistria.

2.7 million pop
Dependent on Russian gas
_the government was fully aware of the "vulnerabilities that Moldova is in", including the energy sector.._
applied to join EU
Some 1500 Russian troops in the latter breakaway sector could cause problems









						One tiny European nation fears it may be central to Putin's plans to wreak new havoc in Ukraine
					

While Moldova has long demanded Russia withdraw troops from the separatist region of Transnistria, its residents are split on the likelihood of an attack from Russia's troops.




					www.abc.net.au
				






> .... "The more elderly part of society thinks we should preserve ties with Russia," she said. "But the younger generation thinks differently and supports moves towards the West."


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> and another festering issue. Moldova .... and Transnistria.
> 
> 2.7 million pop
> Dependent on Russian gas
> _the government was fully aware of the "vulnerabilities that Moldova is in", including the energy sector.._
> applied to join EU
> Some 1500 Russian troops in the latter breakaway sector could cause problems
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One tiny European nation fears it may be central to Putin's plans to wreak new havoc in Ukraine
> 
> 
> While Moldova has long demanded Russia withdraw troops from the separatist region of Transnistria, its residents are split on the likelihood of an attack from Russia's troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au



Mittel Europe is a mob of bloodthirsty tribes. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

from ISW

*Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported increasing Russian censorship in an effort to combat growing morale problems among Russian troops. *


> _Ukraine’s GUR reported that Russian officers are intensifying censorship of their troops and restricting access to the internet due to low morale.[1] The GUR claimed that Russian commanders complain about increasing Ukrainian influence over the information consumed by Russian soldiers. The GUR claimed to have intercepted an extract from an order issued by the Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for military and political work, which blamed low Russian morale on the internet and social media. The document reportedly instructs Russian officers to either ban or severely censor all messages received by personnel, as well as access to the internet. Draconian measures to restrict access to information among Russian personnel will likely further exacerbate low morale and desertion rates._




_

ah, yes, bring in the _*Political Commissars*


----------



## Belli

An interesting take on the winner/loser status.


----------



## Belli




----------



## Sean K

If this is true, is it crossing some sort of line?

In the Herald Sun:

Ukraine-Russia war: Unverified reports of chemical attack in Mariupol​Russia has reportedly used chemical weapons in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where it’s believed “tens of thousands” of people were killed. 

Merryn Johns, Maria Bervanakis and AFP

Britain is trying to verify reports that Russia has used chemical weapons in an attack in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, London’s top diplomat said.

Western officials have previously expressed concerns that Russia, finding its February 24 invasion of its neighbour grinding into a protracted conflict, could resort to more extreme measures, including chemical weapons.

“Reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in an attack on the people of Mariupol. We are working urgently with partners to verify details,” UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wrote on Twitter.

“Any use of such weapons would be a callous escalation in this conflict and we will hold Putin and his regime to account.”

Ukrainian politician Ivanna Klympush said Russia had used an “unknown substance” in Mariupol and that people were suffering from respiratory failure.

“Most likely chem.weapons!” she tweeted.

On messaging app Telegram, an aide to the Mariupol mayor wrote that a chemical attack “is not currently confirmed”.

“We are waiting for official information from the military,” Petro Andryushchenko wrote.

Earlier, Ukraine’s Azov battalion claimed a Russian drone had dropped a “poisonous substance” on troops and civilians in Mariupol.


----------



## Craton

Sean K said:


> If this is true, is it crossing some sort of line?
> 
> In the Herald Sun:
> 
> Ukraine-Russia war: Unverified reports of chemical attack in Mariupol​Russia has reportedly used chemical weapons in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol where it’s believed “tens of thousands” of people were killed.
> 
> Merryn Johns, Maria Bervanakis and AFP
> 
> Britain is trying to verify reports that Russia has used chemical weapons in an attack in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol, London’s top diplomat said.
> 
> Western officials have previously expressed concerns that Russia, finding its February 24 invasion of its neighbour grinding into a protracted conflict, could resort to more extreme measures, including chemical weapons.
> 
> “Reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in an attack on the people of Mariupol. We are working urgently with partners to verify details,” UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wrote on Twitter.
> 
> “Any use of such weapons would be a callous escalation in this conflict and we will hold Putin and his regime to account.”
> 
> Ukrainian politician Ivanna Klympush said Russia had used an “unknown substance” in Mariupol and that people were suffering from respiratory failure.
> 
> “Most likely chem.weapons!” she tweeted.
> 
> On messaging app Telegram, an aide to the Mariupol mayor wrote that a chemical attack “is not currently confirmed”.
> 
> “We are waiting for official information from the military,” Petro Andryushchenko wrote.
> 
> Earlier, Ukraine’s Azov battalion claimed a Russian drone had dropped a “poisonous substance” on troops and civilians in Mariupol.



Posted 10hr ago as per Liveuamap
NOTE: To view map, click "On live map" at top left.



> Azov regiment says Russian troops used kind of chemical dropped from a drone, those impacted have respiratory failure, vestibulo-atactic syndrome​


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Sadly, just crossing another line in the affront to civilised behaviour


----------



## mullokintyre

The Martens from Wall street on Parade  suggested that the Russian eceonomy is tanking in a big way, which may be much bigger problems for Putin than the tut tutting from the West.


> There is growing evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and growing atrocities against Ukrainian civilians are not just delivering long-term damage to Russia’s reputation around the world but to its economy at home as sanctions begin to take a heavy toll.
> 
> _Automotive News Europe_ reported yesterday that “New vehicle sales fell 60 percent in March from the previous month at Rolf, Russia’s largest dealership….” Rolf’s CEO, Svetlana Vinogradova, told Reuters she expected full year demand to fall by half in 2022.



Perhaps that will leave more cars heading to other countries to help ease the world wide shortage?



> Forecasts for overall economic contraction is Russia this year range from a 10 percent contraction forecast by Goldman Sachs to a 15 percent drop forecasted by the Institute for International Finance.
> 
> Signs of a slowdown are already showing up in manufacturing. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Russia fell to 44.1 in March. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.
> 
> Even Russia’s economy ministry is sharing news of the bleak outlook. Reuters reported yesterday that the economy ministry announced yesterday that “annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 16.70 percent as of April 1.”
> 
> In an attempt to deal with the soaring inflation, the Russian central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent. One day after the Ukraine invasion, Standard and Poor’s cut Russia’s debt rating to junk. Junk ratings soon followed from Moody’s and Fitch.



Geez, now thats what I call some CB intervention! 20% interest??

The U.K.’s Daily Mail reported on Saturday that in Russian supermarkets “Instant coffee has risen almost 70 per cent and sugar is up 30 per cent.” Multiple European news outlets are reporting that shelves are bare for feminine hygiene products.
Russia, with a population of 145 million will most likely have a GDP on par with or lower than Australia's GDP which has a population of 25 million,  one sixth that of Russia.
Just how far does the  economy have to contract before the plebs start to get restless?
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> The Martens from Wall street on Parade  suggested that the Russian eceonomy is tanking in a big way, which may be much bigger problems for Putin than the tut tutting from the West.
> 
> Perhaps that will leave more cars heading to other countries to help ease the world wide shortage?
> 
> 
> Geez, now thats what I call some CB intervention! 20% interest??
> 
> The U.K.’s Daily Mail reported on Saturday that in Russian supermarkets “Instant coffee has risen almost 70 per cent and sugar is up 30 per cent.” Multiple European news outlets are reporting that shelves are bare for feminine hygiene products.
> Russia, with a population of 145 million will most likely have a GDP on par with or lower than Australia's GDP which has a population of 25 million,  one sixth that of Russia.
> Just how far does the  economy have to contract before the plebs start to get restless?
> Mick




It's looking nasty for your every day Moscovite isn't it. Not sure how much public information is available inside Russia at the moment and what spin is being put through local media, but you'd think they'd be getting close to the real info. Maybe. But, if they change the regime, will they just get another autocrat who wants to do the same?


----------



## againsthegrain

Sean K said:


> It's looking nasty for your every day Moscovite isn't it. Not sure how much public information is available inside Russia at the moment and what spin is being put through local media, but you'd think they'd be getting close to the real info. Maybe. But, if they change the regime, will they just get another autocrat who wants to do the same?




It was the same in Germany before ww2... Hitler was a great saviour promising to fix it all through his war machine


----------



## Craton

againsthegrain said:


> It was the same in Germany before ww2... Hitler was a great saviour promising to fix it all through his war machine



Yep, the so-called "big lie" to justify warmongering.


----------



## bigdog

Russia has big plans for its space program despite international sanctions
					

The country has been shunned by the international community since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24.




					www.space.com
				




Russia has big plans for its space program despite international sanctions​
By  Elizabeth Howell  published about 12 hours ago
The country has been shunned by the international community since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Russia's space program will power through the "difficulties" that have followed the nation's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

Putin was quoted by the Russian state media news source TASS on Tuesday (April 12), which was "Cosmonautics Day" in Russia. The annual celebration honors the launch of Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, who on April 12, 1961, became the first person to reach space. Russia inherited the Soviet space program after the USSR dissolved in 1991.

*Putin, who signed a law last year allowing him to stay in power until at least 2036, *struck an optimistic tone about the future of Russia's space program. "We will necessarily implement all mapped-out plans consistently and persistently, despite any difficulties and some attempts from outside to impede us in this movement," Putin said in the TASS report, which translated his comments from Russian.

The "difficulties" and "attempts from outside" are likely allusions to the numerous international sanctions that have been imposed by the U.S. and other nations since Russia invaded Ukraine. 

These sanctions are manifestations of international disapproval, which has led to the dissolution of many of Russia's space partnerships. For example, Europe recently announced that it will no longer participate in Russia's Luna series of robotic moon missions, nor will it launch the ExoMars rover Rosalind Franklin on a Russian rocket as previously planned. (The International Space Station, in which Russia is the chief partner alongside NASA, continues operations as usual, at least for now.)

In the TASS report, Putin said that Russia plans to continue its Luna-25 moon mission, which is scheduled to launch this year; a broadband satellite series called Sfera (Sphere); a "next-generation transportation spacecraft" and propulsion technologies focusing on nuclear capabilities in the coming years. He was quiet about military affairs in spaceflight, however, including recent reports that Russian forces are jamming GPS access in Ukraine.

Marcia Smith, founder of the website SpacePolicyOnline.com, said it is unclear to which nuclear technologies Putin is referring. "The Soviet Union used to launch military ocean reconnaissance satellites powered by nuclear reactors," Smith wrote in a recent post. But, she noted, there were several several malfunctions with this series of satellites, called Kosmos. The most notable, in 1978, saw Kosmos 954 drop nuclear debris across 300 miles (482 kilometers) of northern Canada.

Putin also pointed to space collaborations with Belarus, a close military ally of Russia, in remote sensing as well as "developing the town of Tsiolkovsky and the Vostochny spaceport." He predicted this measure would soon pass the upper house of his government, "following which, naturally, a new law will be signed."

Putin's comments came after he met Tuesday with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Russia's far eastern Amur region, according to the Washington Post. As for Putin's discussions of government procedure, U.S. President Joe Biden strongly disagreed that these decisions are democratic. Biden said Tuesday that Putin is a "dictator" who "commits genocide", according to CNN.

Putin said that Belarus enterprises "have been renowned since the Soviet period for their competences in the manufacture of high-tech equipment, complex optoelectronic and radio-technical systems."

TASS and other Russian state news sources are the only easily accessible forms of news for most Russian residents, as the government recently cracked down on democratic expression in the press. Most international outlets have closed down their Russian bureaus or moved journalists out of concern for their reporters' safety, according to The Guardian.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

The West Must Help Ukraine Free its People to Stop Russian Atrocities​ 
                                                   Apr 14, 2022 - Press ISW 




Helping Ukraine liberate its people and territories is the only way to stop Russian atrocities and prevent future ones. The West must rush the military support that Ukraine needs to do so.

*Bucha is an observable microcosm of a deliberate Russian terror campaign against Ukrainians.* Similar intentional atrocities are happening throughout Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. Russia’s playbook includes several consistently reported efforts.

Russia revived its “*filtration*” concept in Ukraine. Russian soldiers are executing Putin’s bogus order to “denazify” Ukraine. They are forcing civilians in the occupied areas to undergo “filtration” to identify so-called “nazis,” which in practice means anyone opposing Russia’s unprovoked invasion.

Specifically, Russians have been searching for, kidnapping, torturing, and executing local leaders, activists, and journalists in the occupied areas.[1] The US government warned about Russian lists of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps even before Feb 24 invasion.[2] Russians are continuing to create these lists and target activists.[3]

Russian forces are also looking for people affiliated with or sympathetic to the Ukrainian defenders. Russian soldiers are checking Ukrainians’ phones and documents and even looking for tattoos with Ukrainian symbols, such as the country’s coat of arms.[4] Kremlin media and telegram accounts openly confirm these facts.[5] Russia is making Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) undergo this filtration process as well.[6]

Russia is forcing refugees, including those deported from Ukraine to Russia against their will, to undergo filtration as Russians are looking for “extremists.”[7] US and Ukrainian officials called out reports about Russian forces taking Ukrainians into “filtration camps” before moving them to Russia.[8]

Russia used similar camps during its brutal wars in Chechnya to establish a state system of terror and intimidate the local population.[9]

Russian forces are also engaged in a broader effort to *target civilians and use terror to force the local population into submission*. Russians are executing unarmed civilians; reports of rape are widespread.[10] Russian forces are targeting civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.[11]

Russian forces are trapping civilians in Ukrainian cities by blocking and attacking evacuation efforts.[12] Mariupol is one of the most horrific examples but far from the only one.[13] Russia is also forcibly deporting Ukrainian civilians, including children, from occupied areas to Russia.

Putin’s decision to deploy Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) to Ukraine indicates that population suppression is a clear Russian goal. Rosgvardia is not part of the Russian Armed Forces; it directly reports to Putin and is one of his suppression tools in Russia. Rosgvardia is deployed to the occupied areas, like Kherson, and has been detaining activists, quashing protests, and engaging in other forms of suppression alongside the Russian Armed Forces.[14]

*Russian atrocities in Ukraine are not a new phenomenon. *Russia and the forces it controls have been committing atrocities in Ukraine for the past eight years. A prison, known as “Izolyatsia,” in Donetsk has been a de facto torture camp.[15] Russia has been prosecuting Crimean Tatars on the peninsula for years.[16]

*Atrocities are a part of the Russian way of war in Ukraine and beyond. *Terror is part of the Kremlin’s offset efforts to compensate for the limitations of Russia’s military power and the lack of value that the Kremlin can offer those it is trying to control—both inside and outside Russia.

Russia cannot control areas in Ukraine without terror. Russia is militarily controlling some places, like Kherson, but it cannot govern them. The locals are resisting Russia’s rule. People in Kherson, for example, have been protesting Russian forces and Rosgvardia.[17]

Russia has used terror and the indiscriminate killing of civilians in its previous military campaigns in Chechnya and Syria to pacify resistant populations in those areas.[18]

*Russia will continue terrorizing the population until Ukraine drives Russia out of its land. *Russian forces will terrorize Ukrainians in every area Russia seizes. “Denazification” is yet another cover for the Kremlin’s decades-long quest to strip Ukraine of its sovereignty. Atrocities will continue as long as Russian forces remain in occupied areas. Whether these areas are Russian-speaking is irrelevant: Mariupol and Kherson have many Russian speakers.

*A ceasefire risks expanding Russia’s bandwidth to terrorize local populations.* Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine remain unchanged. He made it clear over the past 20 years that he will accept nothing less than Russian control over Ukraine. The Kremlin will use any ceasefire it offers to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty.[19]

Stopping the fighting will not necessarily stop the killing—it will leave those Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines unable to defend themselves and will allow Russian forces in Ukraine to focus more on filtration efforts in the areas they occupy. 

The West should not try to push Ukraine into a ceasefire or a peace deal for the sake of short-term peace and should instead focus on helping Ukraine win this next phase of the war.

*Ukraine can win the next phase of this war with timely and proper Western support. *Ukraine has won the first phase of this war and has a chance to win the second one. Russia is regrouping for a major assault in Ukraine’s southeast. The outcome of this phase is far from determined, as Russia struggles to amass the combat power necessary to achieve its military objectives in Donbas.[20]

With proper and timely military aid, Ukraine has a chance to win the second phase by pushing back Russia’s offensive and continuing its efforts to liberate Russia-held areas. The Ukrainian government has made clear what military aid it needs from Western leaders. Those needs include tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, multi-launch rocket systems, air defense systems, and combat aircraft.[21]

Time is critical: the West must deliver the aid Ukraine needs to defeat the next wave of the Russian offensive before that offensive begins.

Half measures or delays in military aid will prolong the war, increase Putin’s chances of winning, and lead to more death and destruction.


----------



## Value Collector

Stockybailz said:


> More dirt on the Biden Administration; Just want to display my discuss with Biden and the way his led NATO and the EU not to confront the Russian forces, but to dance around the invasion and leave Ukraine out to dry without a no fly zone...i don't think he's a competent person, leading Australia into dismay around it's policy to China...A filthily individual that passed his overdue date and should be espied.
> 
> The Biden Crime family on the wrong side of the fence. A corrupt Biden, that thinks and says he knows the enemy, but really he's just apart of it... Say's he knows Putin, but really there kissing cousins...




Fox News will rot your brain, stop watching it before your symptoms become permanent.


----------



## Telamelo

Just released..

"An air raid alert has been declared for all of Ukraine’s regions, following warnings Vladimir Putin could launch an “immediate escalation” of the war".



			https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-will-immediately-escalate-attacks-on-ukraine-in-response-to-moskva-explosion-expert-warns/news-story/f27ff792819891f9f81038b9692b5bc7


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> Just released..
> 
> "An air raid alert has been declared for all of Ukraine’s regions, following warnings Vladimir Putin could launch an “immediate escalation” of the war".
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-will-immediately-escalate-attacks-on-ukraine-in-response-to-moskva-explosion-expert-warns/news-story/f27ff792819891f9f81038b9692b5bc7



This is Putin's last chance.

Let us hope he continues to f.ck it up.

Most military observers reckon that Ukraine is now evenly matched with Russia atm. given the inexperienced top down army of the latter and the committed, patriotic, cyber-equipped and high morale defenders of the former. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Telamelo said:


> "An air raid alert has been declared for all of Ukraine’s regions, following warnings Vladimir Putin could launch an “immediate escalation” of the war".



_It's "all clear" in Kyiv now after several loud overnight explosions were reported in the Ukrainian capital. Blasts were also earlier reported in Kherson - Ukraine's authorities have so far made no public comments on the situation in the Russian-occupied southern city._

_Ukrainian officials usually do not rush to either confirm or deny media reports of blasts: the key reason is that they do not want to give Russian forces any information about whether they have hit or missed their intended targets. Social media users have also been warned not to publish any photos or videos from blast sites or share geolocation details._

what a disciplined society_. _


> "Fifty days of our defence is an achievement," President Zelensky said. "Achievement of millions of Ukrainians. Everyone who made the main decision in life on 24 February - to fight. To be human. Not to give up. And not to betray."


----------



## Belli

If it is true the Russian invasion tactics was based on the (false) belief there were Russian support groups in Ukraine able to assist Russian troops it is almost, but not quite, funny.  Basically, a directorate was provided cash to establish and support such groups but people in the directorate kept the cash and submitted false reports to the Kremlin the groups actually existed.


----------



## mullokintyre

Belli said:


> If it is true the Russian invasion tactics was based on the (false) belief there were Russian support groups in Ukraine able to assist Russian troops it is almost, but not quite, funny.  Basically, a directorate was provided cash to establish and support such groups but people in the directorate kept the cash and submitted false reports to the Kremlin the groups actually existed.




Further on the idea that the whole process was built on bribes comes this from Washington Examiner


> Last month, members of Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, began to disappear. Espionage is, by its nature, an opaque business, but sources suggested that senior members of the FSB’s Fifth Service, essentially Russia’s overseas intelligence operation, were being arrested or confined to their homes. There was talk of embezzlement, but definite facts were thin. The details are only now emerging, and they help explain why Russia is losing in Ukraine and, indeed, why autocracies are often terrible at fighting wars.
> 
> Until 2014, Ukraine was fairly evenly split between, to borrow 19th century Russian terminology, Westernizers and Slavophiles. Some Ukrainians wanted to join the institutions of the free world, including NATO. Others preferred, if not a merger with Russia, at least a special relationship with what they saw as the sister nations to their east and north. When Putin annexed Crimea and effectively detached parts of the Donbas region, he removed millions of Russophile voters and thereby gave Ukraine a solidly pro-Western majority.
> 
> Putin had thus unwittingly created what was, from his perspective, an intolerable situation. The last thing he wanted was a kindred population on Russia’s border, speaking a cognate language but moving toward liberal multiparty democracy. So he began to prepare for a further and more decisive military intervention.
> 
> From at least 2015, the FSB’s Fifth Service was charged with preparing the ground. Large sums were set aside to suborn Ukrainian civil and military leaders. The idea was that when the moment came, senior Ukrainians, such as mayors, regional governors, generals, and police chiefs, would switch sides, opening the gates to their paymasters.
> 
> But the FSB’s bosses never believed an invasion would happen. And so, Russia being Russia, they siphoned the cash off into yachts in Cyprus and numbered Swiss accounts.
> 
> Imagine the scene when, toward the end of 2021, Putin called his spy chiefs in and asked them to confirm the bribes had been disbursed and that key Ukrainian institutions would throw in their lot with the Russian invader. The terrified FSB leaders assured him that, yes, all was well while desperately trying to find a way out of the hole they had dug for themselves.
> 
> Running away was not an option. Their former colleague Alexander Litvinenko had fled to London, accusing the FSB of having orchestrated the Moscow theater hostage crisis and apartment bombings. But living in London did not protect him. He was assassinated with polonium in 2006. Another former agent, Sergei Skripal, had moved to the sleepy English town of Salisbury, but he was poisoned with Novichok in 2018 by two GRU operatives. He survived, though an innocent bystander was killed. If even living under the queen’s peace was no guarantee of safety, what could the corrupt FSB officers do?
> 
> It looks as if they did the only possible thing in their position. They sought to prevent the invasion from happening so that their embezzlement should not come to light. The way they appear to have done so is to have told their Western counterparts what was being planned, hoping that, once Putin knew that his plot had been uncovered, he would drop it. Hence the detailed knowledge that Britain and the United States had about what was coming — knowledge that their governments made public and that Putin lamely denied.
> 
> In the event, of course, the invasion went ahead anyway. But the same structural problem continued to plague it — namely that, in authoritarian states, people tell their bosses what they want to hear. It soon emerged that much of the money set aside for the modernization of the Russian military had also been diverted into private bank accounts. Tanks lacked basic spare parts. Weapons systems failed. But, again, no one wanted to be the bearer of bad news.
> 
> This brings us to a counterintuitive truth. Democracies, supposedly soft, decadent, and convulsed in culture wars, often turn out to be better at fighting than brutal dictatorships. This is not because their people are braver or more virtuous — it's because they have systems in place that allow for greater transparency and speedier error correction.
> 
> Let’s flip that around. The thing that Putin’s Western admirers tended to drool over was how “strong” he was. Far-right European politicians such as Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, as well as a few Trumpsters in the U.S., thrilled to the way he knocked opponents aside and sneered at gay rights.
> 
> But ask yourself this: How strong does he look now? It turns out that, although his goons were plenty strong when murdering female journalists or breaking up peaceful demonstrations, they fell to pieces against regular soldiers.
> 
> Don’t write off open societies — they’re tougher than they look.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

mullokintyre said:


> Further on the idea that the whole process was built on bribes comes this from Washington Examiner



Thanks Mick,

The only thing I would add is that this form of "business" is de rigeur in Russia. 

Skimming starts at the top and goes all the way down from the FSB to the company that makes their version of Tim Tams. 

It starts with Putin at the top.

It does however provide an easy excuse to get rid of a smaller enemy or miscreant.

Just accuse them of embezzlement. It will work 100% of the time because the whole economy runs on it. 

gg


----------



## mullokintyre

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks Mick,
> 
> The only thing I would add is that this form of "business" is de rigeur in Russia.
> 
> Skimming starts at the top and goes all the way down from the FSB to the company that makes their version of Tim Tams.
> 
> It starts with Putin at the top.
> 
> It does however provide an easy excuse to get rid of a smaller enemy or miscreant.
> 
> Just accuse them of embezzlement. It will work 100% of the time because the whole economy runs on it.
> 
> gg



If indeed much of this is true, Putin should be very very worried.
The underlings will see that the leader has been humilitaed along with  his intelligence force, the military, and the nation in general.
So how long before they turn on him?
I reckon his days are numbered.
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks Mick,
> 
> The only thing I would add is that this form of "business" is _de rigeur _in Russia.



And not a good way to mount an invasion. Assemble troops and tanks at the border, tell them it's an exercise and not much else, let them sit for a month and what do they do? Sell fuel to the locals.
Then the word comes to move out, and how far do they get?

The destruction of the _spetsnaz _forces must rankle


----------



## Craton

mullokintyre said:


> If indeed much of this is true, Putin should be very very worried.
> The underlings will see that the leader has been humilitaed along with  his intelligence force, the military, and the nation in general.
> So how long before they turn on him?
> I reckon his days are numbered.
> Mick



Could already be a done thing. Like you say, just a question of when as per: *How Russia Will Die**. *This was posted on 26 Mar 2022 and another fantastic and very informative expose by the well regarded Peter Ziehan.

The Youtube clip is an excerpt from a Podcast with Jordan Harbinger.



> Here, we examine how the current Russia-Ukraine conflict became a “now or never” option for Putin, the downsides for Russia if it “wins” and what we expect its next steps to be, what NATO is doing to avoid turning this into a nuclear-escalated World War III, why Putin’s actions leading up to this point in time don’t bode well for Russia in any scenario, and what a country like China with expansionist goals of its own might take away from Russia’s hard-earned lessons.


----------



## Craton

Russian Covert Operations Exposed in Ukraine​


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Interesting @Craton . Of course the west is aiding Ukraine. I would expect nothing less.  It's less 'covert' than a brief on the current situation.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Kursk is just 'up the road' less than 200km from Kharkiv. The Battle for Kursk was a defining point on the Eastern front. I suspect Russian tactics are little changed.


> Losses on the field were sharply lopsided, some estimates counting only 200,000 German casualties compared to between 700,000 to 800,000 losses for the Soviets.
> 
> In the end, the Germans, already decimated at Stalingrad and threatened by the invasion of Italy, could not continue fighting against the _*never-ending waves of Soviet troops and tanks*_.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

apologies if it has been posted before, but do you reckon this guy still has a job?  (from 22 Feb)



> In late February, Putin called this inner circle to a televised meeting so he could ask them whether he should invade Ukraine.  As Sergei Naryshkin, chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, stammered and looked visibly uncomfortable, Putin demanded a "yes or no" to war.
> 
> "Speak directly!" he twice ordered his intelligence chief, who was trying to explain the nuances of his position. Eventually Naryshkin acquiesced and his boss told him to sit down.


----------



## Craton

Having seen the spectacle of that security meeting, geez, didn’t that demonstrate the strangle hold Putin has over his Siloviki?
The fear on their faces was hard to hide because they all knew, the broadcasting of them giving support for the invasion made them all culpable and accountable. No way they can say they didn’t support it.


----------



## Craton

Dona Ferentes said:


> Interesting @Craton . Of course the west is aiding Ukraine. I would expect nothing less.  It's less 'covert' than a brief on the current situation.



Did u see that vid showing Russian hand grenade booby traps in civilian homes and anti personnel mine hiding in a shopping bag?

This is not a combatant conflict but out and out terrorism, designed to place fear and terror on the Ukrainian people.

The “current situation” started with that sacked ex president of Ukraine fleeing the country back in 2013. As he did so he asked Putin to send in the Russian Forces hence, Crimea was annexed.
Of course there is a lot more to that sacking.

Regardless, the Ukrainian’s have been in armed conflict with Russia ever since and without a resolution, was bound to escalate as we have witnessed.

BTW. That ex prez, now living in exile in Russia, in 2019 was convicted of treason by the Ukrainian courts.


----------



## Craton

From Liveuamap within last 12hr. Click on "Jump to map" for more info. re. the conflict



> Vice PM of Ukraine: despite agreements Russian military not allowed evacuation from Mariupol today




Also reported:



> In Kharkiv region Sercurity Service of Ukraine found warehouse with ammunition and spare parts for military vehicles worth $200M




Russian sabre rattling...



> Russia test-launched Sarmat ICBM from Plesetsk




Sarmat test as reported by Reuters:
Russia tests nuclear-capable missile that Putin calls world's best​


> LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - In a show of strength two months into its assault on Ukraine, Russia test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile which President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday would make Moscow's enemies stop and think.
> 
> Putin was shown on TV being told by the military that the long-awaited Sarmat missile had been test-launched for the first time from Plesetsk in northwest Russia and hit targets in the Kamchatka peninsula, nearly 6,000 km (3,700 miles) away.
> 
> 
> The test of the Sarmat, under development for years, did not surprise the West, but came at a moment of extreme geopolitical tension. Russia has yet to capture any major cities since it sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.
> 
> Ukraine's defence ministry was not immediately available for comment.
> 
> "The new complex has the highest tactical and technical characteristics and is capable of overcoming all modern means of anti-missile defence. It has no analogues in the world and won't have for a long time to come," Putin said.
> 
> 
> "This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure Russia's security from external threats and provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country."
> 
> Announcing the invasion eight weeks ago, Putin made a pointed reference to Russia's nuclear forces and warned the West that any attempt to get in its way "will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history."
> 
> 
> Days later, he ordered Russia's nuclear forces to be put on high alert. "The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said last month.
> 
> Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday the Sarmat was fired from a silo launcher at 1512 Moscow time (1212 GMT).
> 
> Russia's nuclear forces will start taking delivery of the new missile "in the autumn of this year" once testing is complete, Tass quoted Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Roscosmos space agency, as saying on Wednesday.
> 
> SYMBOLIC TIMING
> 
> Jack Watling of the RUSI think-tank in London said there was an element of posturing and symbolism involved, less than three weeks before the annual Victory Day parade where Russia shows off its latest weapons.
> 
> "The timing of the test reflects the Russians wanting to have something to show as a technological achievement in the lead-up to Victory Day, at a time when a lot of their technology has not delivered the results they would have liked," Watling said.
> 
> Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the launch was an important milestone after years of delays caused by funding issues and design challenges.
> 
> He said more tests would be needed before Russia could actually deploy it in place of ageing SS-18 and SS-19 missiles that were "well past their sell-by date".
> 
> Barrie said the Sarmat's ability to carry 10 or more warheads and decoys, and Russia's option of firing it over either of the Earth's poles, posed a challenge to ground and satellite-based radar and tracking systems.
> 
> Igor Korotchenko, editor in chief of Russia's National Defence magazine, told RIA news agency it was a signal to the West that Moscow was capable of meting out "crushing retribution that will put an end to the history of any country that has encroached on the security of Russia and its people".
> 
> Ukraine has mounted stiff resistance and the West has imposed sweeping sanctions to try to force Russia to withdraw forces Moscow says are on a special operation to degrade its southern neighbour’s military capabilities and root out people it calls dangerous nationalists.


----------



## Craton

Russian defence minister Shoigu has reported to Putin that Russian forces have fully captured Mariupol, except of Azovstal

Then later:
Putin ordered Shoigu to cancel assault on Azovstal and impose siege on it​


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Craton said:


> Russian defence minister Shoigu has reported to Putin that Russian forces have fully captured Mariupol, except of Azovstal
> 
> Then later:
> Putin ordered Shoigu​



Therein lies a conundrum for the boys in the Kremlin.... Starve them (a slow process) or have your May 9 victory parade.

Either way, it's medieval. But there again, that's Team Putin.

PS, I finally listened to that Peter Zeihan _op ed_ piece. ... a bit of a curator's egg, IMO


----------



## basilio

*Putin finally gets it right.*

Attempting to fight the last 2000  Ukrainian  soldiers in the tangled mess of the steelworks would be a tactical disaster.  I'm guessing the estimated losses of soldiers would be at least 5000 - if they could get them to actually fight.  It wouldn't surprise me if the frank advice was that the experienced soldiers, the conscripts or any officers would not have the stomach for a meat grinder attack.

I came across an excellent analysis of urban warfare.  Worth checking out if anyone is interested in the topic.                        
The Eight Rules of Urban Warfare and Why We Must Work to Change Them​ 
John Spencer | 01.12.21                                  





  

From October 16, 2016 to January 4, 2017, US-backed Iraqi security forces conducted a full-scale city attack to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State. The operation was the largest conventional land battle since the attack on Baghdad during the US-led invasion in 2003 and one of the most destructive urban fights in modern history involving Western forces. The battle saw a force of over one hundred thousand attacking somewhere between five and twelve thousand enemy fighters defending the city. The nine-month battle is reported to have killed over ten thousand civilians, caused an estimated two billion dollars in damage to the city, created ten million tons of debris, and displaced over 1.8 million of the city’s residents.

This type of high-cost, high-risk operation—the city attack—will continue to increase in frequency unless the rules of modern urban warfare are addressed in a deliberate manner. In other words, the limitations characterizing the conduct of urban warfare must be overcome.

..Urban warfare has its own rules. In large-scale combat operations to liberate an enemy city today, those are rules that most if not all militaries have allowed to remain in place since World War II. These rules give great advantages to a defending force and make it an attractive option for militaries, insurgents, and terrorists who are weaker than their opponents. Until these game rules are changed (through a major change in tactics, technology, or weapons), the tendency of comparatively weaker actors seeking refuge and advantage in cities—and the damage caused in their liberation—will only continue.









						The Eight Rules of Urban Warfare and Why We Must Work to Change Them - Modern War Institute
					

From October 16, 2016 to January 4, 2017, US-backed Iraqi security forces conducted a full-scale city attack to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State. The operation was the largest conventional […]




					mwi.usma.edu


----------



## Craton

Dona Ferentes said:


> Therein lies a conundrum for the boys in the Kremlin.... Starve them (a slow process) or have your May 9 victory parade.
> 
> Either way, it's medieval. But there again, that's Team Putin.
> 
> PS, I finally listened to that Peter Zeihan _op ed_ piece. ... a bit of a curator's egg, IMO



Am assuming you're referring to the "How Russia Will Die" clip. Yes, op ed and as mentioned an extract from a Podcast with Jordan Harbinger.

I like that Peter gives the good and bad, very apt because the future is unknown. He encapsulates the broadest spectrum of important issues and factors into a coherent dialogue on the issue at hand. Don't get me wrong, I do not agree with all he has to say but to me, Peter is very insightful and spells it all out in a way that resonates.


----------



## mullokintyre

An interesting sideline developing overnight in Russia.
From  Zero Hedge


> The  death toll in the massive fire that broke out earlier in the day at a sensitive Russian Defense Ministry research facility in the city of Tver has* risen to seven* after emergency crews battled the Thursday blaze throughout the afternoon, state-run TASS reports.
> 
> The cause of the fire is still either unknown or not being disclosed by Russian state agencies at this point, but now more questions are being raised as another mysterious large blaze has erupted, this time *at Russia's largest chemical plant, a mere hours after the fire in Tver* - the latter which had engulfed a facility belonging to the secretive _Central Research and Development Institute of Aerospace Defense Troops. _UK media is reporting on the latest mystery fire, which marks the 2nd in the day, as follows:
> 
> Huge plumes of smoke were seen *enveloping the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant late this afternoon*. The cause of the fire remains unknown. Almost 150 plant workers were reportedly evacuated.
> The facility in Kineshma, east of Moscow produces more industrial solvents than any other in Russia. It is less than 1,000km from the border with Ukraine.



Coincidence that two major fires occur within hours of each other, or was it sabotage?
Who knows, but I am sure the various players will put their spin on it.
Mick


----------



## Belli

This is very funny in a number of ways.  Steal airpods and let the opposition know of troop movements.


----------



## rederob

Dona Ferentes said:


> PS, I finally listened to that Peter Zeihan _op ed_ piece. ... a bit of a *curator's *egg, IMO



Belongs in a museum?
Rather than with the clergy who can cure it?

On topic, aren't the Ukranians doing well?  Of course we would rather they were Iraqi or Afghani so we could get in there and help out, but they have our blessing.   And as much as we would like to offer fighter planes, they only asked us for Bushmen, so we are all good!
Who mentioned Mariupol? Fair suck, the Chinese are about to invade us from the Solomons so we have a lot on our plate right now.  Anyway, the Russians seem to have done a pretty good job liberating the Ukrainians, mostly from their homes mind you, and we are really thankful they are still sending their oil and gas to needy nations.


----------



## Craton

rederob said:


> Belongs in a museum?
> Rather than with the clergy who can cure it?
> 
> On topic, aren't the Ukranians doing well?  Of course we would rather they were Iraqi or Afghani so we could get in there and help out, but they have our blessing.   And as much as we would like to offer fighter planes, they only asked us for Bushmen, so we are all good!
> *Who mentioned Mariupol? Fair suck, the Chinese are about to invade us from the Solomons so we have a lot on our plate right now.  *Anyway, the Russians seem to have done a pretty good job liberating the Ukrainians, mostly from their homes mind you, and we are really thankful they are still sending their oil and gas to needy nations.



Perhaps we should be full tilt into building nuke bunkers and to do it properly, let's ask the Ukrainians stuck in Mariupol for blueprints, plans and pointers for said bunkers and hunkering down tactics. 

Cheers for the tongue-in-cheek though, needed a tad of stress relief.

BOT (back on topic).
I really should start to refer to this conflict as a Defacto or, more aptly, a Clayton's WW3. The world war you're having when you're not having a world war.
I'm mean really, it is in a sense a World War. The world sanctions, the material and $$$ being sent from all over the world to fight the aggressor in a typical us against them scenario. The only thing missing, NATO and West militaries upon Ukrainian land, sea and air.

Of course no one (in the West) wants an all out war and so we ply Ukraine with the means and material to repel the aggressor. From that, we all see the price of freedom and the Ukrainians continue to show us how to pay and what the cost truly is. It is this fact that endears and bonds us so strongly with Ukraine.

I ask myself, if Australia faced such an aggressor would we be the same, standing tall, standing as one, being brave and courageous and proudly fighting for our freedom and our country?
Rhetorical question because I'm certain a lot of people across the planet have asked the very same of their homeland.


----------



## rederob

Craton said:


> I ask myself, if Australia faced such an aggressor would we be the same, standing tall, standing as one, being brave and courageous and proudly fighting for our freedom and our country?
> Rhetorical question because I'm certain a lot of people across the planet have asked the very same of their homeland.



If Ukraine is the new normal then we avert a real WWIII by never assisting any nation which is being attacked by a country possessing global nuclear strike capability.
In that context Taiwan would be hung out to dry and so would Australia.


----------



## mullokintyre

Craton said:


> I ask myself, if Australia faced such an aggressor would we be the same, standing tall, standing as one, being brave and courageous and proudly fighting for our freedom and our country?
> Rhetorical question because I'm certain a lot of people across the planet have asked the very same of their homeland.



Nah, Australians would sit back and post on FB, Tic Toc and Twitter about its all the governments fault, and what are they going to do to help.
mick


----------



## againsthegrain

Craton said:


> Perhaps we should be full tilt into building nuke bunkers and to do it properly, let's ask the Ukrainians stuck in Mariupol for blueprints, plans and pointers for said bunkers and hunkering down tactics.
> 
> Cheers for the tongue-in-cheek though, needed a tad of stress relief.
> 
> BOT (back on topic).
> I really should start to refer to this conflict as a Defacto or, more aptly, a Clayton's WW3. The world war you're having when you're not having a world war.
> I'm mean really, it is in a sense a World War. The world sanctions, the material and $$$ being sent from all over the world to fight the aggressor in a typical us against them scenario. The only thing missing, NATO and West militaries upon Ukrainian land, sea and air.
> 
> Of course no one (in the West) wants an all out war and so we ply Ukraine with the means and material to repel the aggressor. From that, we all see the price of freedom and the Ukrainians continue to show us how to pay and what the cost truly is. It is this fact that endears and bonds us so strongly with Ukraine.
> 
> I ask myself, if Australia faced such an aggressor would we be the same, standing tall, standing as one, being brave and courageous and proudly fighting for our freedom and our country?
> Rhetorical question because I'm certain a lot of people across the planet have asked the very same of their homeland.




nope, Aussies would be too busy protesting "invasion day"  and mining


----------



## Value Collector

rederob said:


> If Ukraine is the new normal then we avert a real WWIII by never assisting any nation which is being attacked by a country possessing global nuclear strike capability.
> In that context Taiwan would be hung out to dry and so would Australia.



Been happening for a long time, the Russians avoided openly engaging the USA when the USA invaded Korea and Vietnam, and the USA avoided engaging the Russians when the Russians invaded Afghanistan and other places and  now Ukraine.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

After his men discovered the charred and bullet-ridden bodies of a thousand slave labourers murdered near the northern German town of Gardelegen in April 1945, US Army colonel George Lynch called the residents to a meeting.



> “_Some will say the Nazis were responsible for this crime. “Others will point to the Gestapo. The responsibility rests with neither – it is the responsibility of the German people,” he told them. “Your so-called master race has demonstrated that it is master only of crime, cruelty and sadism. You have lost the respect of the civilised world_.”




My friend Tim's grandmother was a slave, a young Ukrainian woman taken to perform onerous work in awful conditions for four years. When liberated by the Russians, she made to the American lines and eventually Australia.


----------



## basilio

Just an update on how one might survive a tactical  nuclear weapon blast. (I believe this a way of saying its only a small bomb..)
It seems to be a topical subject given the current  hostilities in Ukraine and Russa letting everyone know they have plenty of bombs to spare.

Frankly I'm not sure I would want to survive. I added the final statements of the article. So someone really thinks there will be outside help if the bomb is dropped ?

 *How to survive a tactical nuclear bomb? Defence experts explain          *                Published: April 20, 2022 6.16am AEST

Authors​Print

There has been widespread discussion of Russia’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in its war on Ukraine.

Russia is estimated to have thousands of tactical nuclear weapons – possibly the world’s largest stockpile – which could be deployed at any time. The use of nuclear weapons is also embedded in Russian military doctrine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appealed to the rest of the world to take the threat seriously.

In this article we examine what would happen during a tactical nuclear bomb explosion, including the three stages of ignition, blast and radioactive fallout – and how one might be able to survive this.

.....  Once you’ve found shelter, you’ll need to decontaminate. This will require a thorough scrub of the skin, nails and hair, and a change into clean clothing. But any severe burns should be tended to first.  *(This should  all be quite straightforward... ?*)

Hopefully by now the national authorities will have stepped in for rescue and medical treatment.









						How to survive a tactical nuclear bomb? Defence experts explain
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned nations to prepare for the possibility that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons.




					theconversation.com


----------



## basilio

Back in 1964 the BBC commissioned Peter Watkins to produce a "documentary" on the effects of a nuclear war in Britain.
Peter promptly produced a very grim, very realistic portrayal of how a nuclear war might begin and the impact it would have.
The doco was *immediately  *banned from screening.

If you want to see what a nuclear war would seriously look like check it out.
And for interest you can see why and how this very powerful story was spiked for many, many years.











						The War Game: how I showed that BBC bowed to government over nuclear attack film
					

Controversy has raged down the years over whether the film was censored by the government. Now secret files reveal the truth after 50 years.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Craton

Nukes are extremely scary and don't come just in missile or bomb flavours.

From Wikipedia: Tactical Nuclear Weapon as opposed to a Strategic Nuclear Weapon.



> A *tactical nuclear weapon* (*TNW*) or *non-strategic nuclear weapon* (*NSNW*)[1] is a nuclear weapon which is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territory. Generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war.



Will this aggressor be the first?


> No tactical nuclear weapon has ever been used in a combat situation.


----------



## Value Collector

Craton said:


> Nukes are extremely scary and don't come just in missile or bomb flavours.
> 
> From Wikipedia: Tactical Nuclear Weapon as opposed to a Strategic Nuclear Weapon.
> 
> 
> Will this aggressor be the first?



Yep, they can be fired for artillery too, 1 nuclear artillery round would do more damage than a week of regular shelling, and certainly knock the wind out of an invading force coming over the hill.


----------



## Craton

Value Collector said:


> Yep, they can be fired for artillery too, 1 nuclear artillery round would do more damage than a week of regular shelling, and certainly knock the wind out of an invading force coming over the hill.





Shocking to say the least and a lot more besides like in *land mines* and the Davy Crockett rifle as per the Wikipedia link.



> Tactical nuclear weapons include gravity bombs, short-range missiles, artillery shells, land mines, depth charges, and torpedoes which are equipped with nuclear warheads. Also in this category are nuclear armed ground-based or shipborne surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and air-to-air missiles. Small, two-man portable or truck-portable tactical weapons (sometimes misleadingly referred to as suitcase nukes), such as the Special Atomic Demolition Munition and the Davy Crockett recoilless rifle (recoilless smoothbore gun) have been developed, but the difficulty of combining sufficient yield with portability could limit their military utility. In wartime, such explosives could be used for demolishing "chokepoints" to enemy offensives, such as at tunnels, narrow mountain passes, and long viaducts.



The rifle: 


> It remains one of the smallest nuclear weapon systems ever built, with a yield of 20 tonnes of TNT (84 GJ).




On a different tack, this from Mariupol, video of life inside Azovstal, no English translation though...


----------



## basilio

Craton said:


> Shocking to say the least and a lot more besides like in *land mines* and the Davy Crockett rifle as per the Wikipedia link.
> 
> 
> The rifle:
> 
> 
> On a different tack, this from Mariupol, video of life inside Azovstal, no English translation though...





The US were certainly in the lead with tactical nuclear weapons.  Checked out the Davy Crockett missile. A couple of guys could lob a nuclear shell that was effectively 20 tonnes of TNT into a battle situation.  That would make a bang !

It was eventually decommissioned.

*Projectile, Atomic, Supercaliber 279mm XM388* for the Davy Crockett contained a *W54 Mod 2* nuclear warhead. It was a very compact pure fission device weighing 50.9 pounds (23.1 kg) and when packaged in the M388 round weighed 76 pounds (34 kg). The weapon had an official yield of 20 tonnes of TNT (84 GJ) and contained 26 pounds (12 kg) of high explosives.[15][2]

The Davy Crcokett's nuclear warhead, the M388 was removed from US Army Europe (in West Germany) in August 1967.[11] The last nuclear-equipped warhead was retired in 1971.[12] Brigadier General Alvin Cowan, Assistant Division Commander of 3rd Armored Division, while stating the weapon was a "significant advance" in technical terms and that the laboratory responsible deserved "a great deal of credit", further stated that *the Army retired the weapon due to the personnel costs associated with it as well as apparent "great fear that some sergeant would start a nuclear war".**[13]*

*








						Davy Crockett (nuclear device) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				



*


----------



## Telamelo

A large fire was reported early on Monday at an oil storage facility in the Russian city of Bryansk (380kms south west of Moscow), local news agencies reported, raising the prospect that Ukraine has struck targets within Russia.


----------



## Craton

@Telamelo  seems there's plenty of fake news about that oil storage fire.



> The Russian Energy Ministry said there was no threat to diesel and gasoline supplies in the Bryansk region after the incident and there were enough fuel stockpiles.



They say that, then this...


> It added that the scale of the blaze was being assessed.



Anyways TASS reports that its been extinguished. NASA FIRMS (global fire map) also shows no fire there on the TODAY map as opposed to the 24 HRS map.

It matters not if the fire was created by Ukrainian armaments, sabotage, accident, incompetence or whatever; anything that stymies/slows down the supply chain to the invading aggressor surely, is viewed as a good thing.


----------



## Craton

25 Apr 2022 update from ISW reads in part:



> *April 25, 5:00 pm ET*​
> *Russian forces conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway stations in central and western Ukraine on April 25 in a likely effort to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements to eastern Ukraine and Western aid shipments.* A series of likely coordinated Russian missile strikes conducted within an hour of one another early on April 25 hit critical transportation infrastructure in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Zhytomyr oblasts.[1] Russian forces seek to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements and logistics. The Kremlin may have additionally conducted this series of strikes—an abnormal number of precision missile strikes for one day—to demonstrate Russia’s ability to hit targets in Western Ukraine and to disrupt western aid shipments after US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s surprise visit to Kyiv over the weekend. However, Russian precision strike capabilities will remain limited and unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war; open-source research organization Bellingcat reported on April 24 that Russia has likely used 70% of its total stockpile of precision missiles to date.[2]
> 
> *Local Ukrainian counterattacks retook territory north of Kherson and west of Izyum in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to make little progress in scattered, small-scale attacks in eastern Ukraine. *Ukrainian forces are successfully halting Russian efforts to bypass Ukrainian defensive positions around Izyum, and Russian forces are struggling to complete even tactical encirclements. Local Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson Oblast are unlikely to develop into a larger counteroffensive in the near term but are disrupting Russian efforts to completely capture Kherson Oblast and are likely acting as a drain on Russian combat power that could otherwise support Russia’s main effort in eastern Ukraine.


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## 3 hound

basilio said:


> Just an update on how one might survive a tactical  nuclear weapon blast. (I believe this a way of saying its only a small bomb..)
> It seems to be a topical subject given the current  hostilities in Ukraine and Russa letting everyone know they have plenty of bombs to spare.
> 
> Frankly I'm not sure I would want to survive. I added the final statements of the article. So someone really thinks there will be outside help if the bomb is dropped ?
> 
> *How to survive a tactical nuclear bomb? Defence experts explain          *                Published: April 20, 2022 6.16am AEST
> 
> Authors​Print
> 
> There has been widespread discussion of Russia’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in its war on Ukraine.
> 
> Russia is estimated to have thousands of tactical nuclear weapons – possibly the world’s largest stockpile – which could be deployed at any time. The use of nuclear weapons is also embedded in Russian military doctrine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appealed to the rest of the world to take the threat seriously.
> 
> In this article we examine what would happen during a tactical nuclear bomb explosion, including the three stages of ignition, blast and radioactive fallout – and how one might be able to survive this.
> 
> .....  Once you’ve found shelter, you’ll need to decontaminate. This will require a thorough scrub of the skin, nails and hair, and a change into clean clothing. But any severe burns should be tended to first.  *(This should  all be quite straightforward... ?*)
> 
> Hopefully by now the national authorities will have stepped in for rescue and medical treatment.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How to survive a tactical nuclear bomb? Defence experts explain
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned nations to prepare for the possibility that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com



Duck and Cover.


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## 3 hound

Anyone know the financial burden on Ukraine for funding their resistance, under what terms are they receiving war funding from the West??

I am assuming they require financial support??


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## Sean K

3 hound said:


> Anyone know the financial burden on Ukraine for funding their resistance, under what terms are they receiving war funding from the West??
> 
> I am assuming they require financial support??




It's in the 10s of billions in damages so far. In past war time the victor normally asks for reparations from the loser. For eg, it took Germany and Japan decades to pay off their surrender agreements through various instruments. The Ukraine will not defeat Russia though, so I think they will get free/cheap loans from the West to rebuild what they are left with after Russia stop their advance, which will be around the line of Russian speaking Ukrainians. I said at the start of this in another thread that it would be down the line of the Dnipro River from Kharkiv to Kherson. I think Russian want Odessa, but the Ukraine needs land / sea access and the World will not allow Russia to surround Ukraine and have complete control of the sea ports in the north Black Sea. By the way, if anyone thinks it was Ukrainian missiles that sunk that Russian ship, think again.


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## 3 hound

Sean K said:


> It's in the 10s of billions in damages so far. In past war time the victor normally asks for reparations from the loser. For eg, it took Germany and Japan decades to pay off their surrender agreements through various instruments. The Ukraine will not defeat Russia though, so I think they will get free/cheap loans from the West to rebuild what they are left with after Russia stop their advance, which will be around the line of Russian speaking Ukrainians. I said at the start of this in another thread that it would be down the line of the Dnipro River from Kharkiv to Kherson. I think Russian want Odessa, but the Ukraine needs land / sea access and the World will not allow Russia to surround Ukraine and have complete control of the sea ports in the north Black Sea. By the way, if anyone thinks it was Ukrainian missiles that sunk that Russian ship, think again.



I was thinking who is funding the current effort not after the war is done.

I have a bad feeling Ukraine is getting in debt further (someone else is getting richer) only to prolong their own suffering.


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## Sean K

3 hound said:


> I was thinking who is funding the current effort not after the war is done.
> 
> I have a bad feeling Ukraine is getting in debt further (someone else is getting richer) only to prolong their own suffering.




The West will be paying for it to keep what's left of Ukraine in the EU and possibly NATO. It's exactly what Russia went to war to prevent, but exactly what they will get.


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## 3 hound

Sean K said:


> The West will be paying for it to keep what's left of Ukraine in the EU and possibly NATO. It's exactly what Russia went to war to prevent, but exactly what they will get.



When you say "paying for it" do you mean funding them with no ties or interest?


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## Sean K

3 hound said:


> When you say "paying for it" do you mean funding them with no ties or interest?












						List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


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## Sean K

3 hound said:


> When you say "paying for it" do you mean funding them with no ties or interest?




I think the Vatican's support is most significant.

"As of March 2022, The Vatican has sent two Cardinals to Ukraine to provide “material and spiritual support” to the Ukrainian people"


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## 3 hound

Sean K said:


> List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



A lot to read but a good start. I am trying to see how much financial aid is true donation and how much is payable back with interest.


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## Craton

UN chief Guterres holds press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov​So many topics, genocide, peace, climate change, human rights, UN issues, NATO's proxy war,banning of Russian language in Ukraine to the Taliban and much, much more.
Wow, just wow... FM Lavrov certainly knows how to spin it in favour of Russia especially around 17:30 mins onwards.


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## rederob

Sean K said:


> By the way, if anyone thinks it was Ukrainian missiles that sunk that Russian ship, think again.



Alternatively, *read *what *experts *have to say rather than a random poster boy at ASF:
"The United States is now confirming that the Ukrainians did indeed fire Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) which led to the sinking of the Russian cruiser MOSKVA, flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet."​


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## Sean K

Craton said:


> UN chief Guterres holds press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov​So many topics, genocide, peace, climate change, human rights, UN issues, NATO's proxy war,banning of Russian language in Ukraine to the Taliban and much, much more.
> Wow, just wow... FM Lavrov certainly knows how to spin it in favour of Russia especially around 17:30 mins onwards.





I'm not sure if it was the poor translation or not, but that's just a rambling mess.


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## Dona Ferentes

Craton said:


> UN chief Guterres holds press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov​So many topics, genocide, peace, climate change, human rights, UN issues, NATO's proxy war,banning of Russian language in Ukraine to the Taliban and much, much more.
> Wow, just wow... FM Lavrov certainly knows how to spin it in favour of Russia especially around 17:30 mins onwards.



A viper on a soapbox is still a viper


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## Sean K

We're reaching an inflection point when the proxy war turns into direct action between NATO and Russia. Then, China gets involved.

I wonder if in 5 years time we look back and see that Russia started WW3. I hope not.


In the Oz:
'Immediate proportional response': Russia warns UK​JACQUELIN MAGNAY

Australia was one of 40 countries agreeing to help Ukraine’s short term military needs and long term security issues at a United States-led meeting at the US defence airbase Ramstein in Germany overnight (AEST).

But the gathering – the first of proposed monthly meetings to bring together democratic and friendly countries to help thwart Russia’s aggression – was overshadowed by a sudden escalation in tensions between Moscow and London.

Britain's Armed Forces Minister *James Heappey* said it was completely legitimate for Ukraine to use British-donated weapons to attack Russian targets in Russia. He said such attacks on Russian supply lines would not necessarily be a problem.

“It’s completely legitimate for Ukraine to be targeting in Russia’s depth in order to disrupt the logistics that if they weren’t disrupted would directly contribute to death and carnage on Ukrainian soil,” Heappey said.

But Russian foreign minister *Sergey Lavrov* warned Britain of conducting a proxy war, saying if London and NATO allies continued to help Ukraine strike targets in Russia there would be “an immediate proportional response”.

Several oil and fuel depots in Bryansk, 100km inside Russian territory, and Belgorod, about 30km from the border have been attacked in recent days.

Lavrov said NATO countries were “pouring oil on the fire” by providing weapons, warning of “World War III”.

When asked directly about the possibility of a nuclear war, Lavrov replied: “The risks are very significant. I do not want the danger to be artificially inflated [but] it is serious, real. It cannot be underestimated.”


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## Craton

With the West’s combined spend in helping Ukraine passing the USA’s spend on the Afghan war, how much dry powder is available for all out war?
Rhetorical question if the nukes fall, but I do wonder what our, Australia’s cost will ultimately be, e.g. wasn’t payroll tax, introduced in 1941 to help with the war effort?


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## Dona Ferentes

With Russia now playing another card, cutting gas to Poland, and destroying as much Ukrainian infrastructure, especially oil storage and railway system, it looks like a long period of attrition setting in.  Expensive fuel for Europe while the Russians will have an advantage (if they can't sell it!).

On the Afghanistan war cost, I remember seeing a photo of line of petrol tankers snaking up the Khyber Pass, and reading that it took a tanker of fuel ex- Karachi to deliver a Jerry can to the front line. Such were the strained supply lines. Imagine how quickly a chopper or tank chewed through the juice.


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## Sean K

Craton said:


> With the West’s combined spend in helping Ukraine passing the USA’s spend on the Afghan war, how much dry powder is available for all out war?
> Rhetorical question if the nukes fall, but I do wonder what our, Australia’s cost will ultimately be, e.g. wasn’t payroll tax, introduced in 1941 to help with the war effort?




When total war is declared then the national economy switches to the war effort. The government can sieze just about any asset they need to fund the war. Geez, they could intern people from the enemy's side if they wanted, which happened during previous WWs. If Russia declared war against NATO (which I don't think they will) then all Russian assets could be siezed by the government. This is where China will get into trouble if they try to take Taiwan by force. They have so many assets abroad owned by CCP affiliated cronies, they will be materially effected on a national level. Imagine Chinese owned mines being shut down around the World. Globalism has been great for China, but globalism may be their undoing also.


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## Sean K

The UN SG had his first meeting with Vlad yesterday, a month after Russia invaded a sovereign nation and has killed thousands of civilians including women and children. The UN is a useless piece of crap while the P5 have veto powers to sanctions.


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## Sean K

This is similar to how WW2 started in the Pacific. The analogy is reliance of energy supplies from other countries. In this case, it's Russia cutting off energy to the EU / NATO. Internal politics in Poland and Bulgaria will mean they have to respond. Do they acquiesce to Russia, or do they double down on support for Ukraine and seek back up from the EU? I think they've hitched their wagon to the EU and NATO. A concerning escalation. 


Ukraine-Russia war: Russia cuts gas supplies to two NATO countries​Vladimir Putin has begun ‘gas blackmail’ halting supplies to two European countries. It comes amid a new Russia threat against the UK.

Zoe Smith, Merryn Johns and AFP 

Russia’s gas giant Gazprom has told Poland and highly dependent Bulgaria that it will halt its shipments of Russian gas to the two countries within hours.

“Bulgargaz received a notification today, April 26, that natural gas supplies from Gazprom Export will be suspended starting April 27,” Bulgaria’s economy ministry said late Tuesday local time in a statement.

“The Bulgarian side has fully met its obligations and has made all payments required under its current contract in a timely manner, strictly and in accordance with its terms,” it added.

Poland’s PGNiG gas firm also announced Tuesday that “On April 26, 2022, Gazprom informed PGNiG of its intention to completely suspend deliveries under the Yamal contract... on April 27.” The Polish operator said “all deliveries to customers are being made according to their demand”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak accused Moscow of “beginning the gas blackmail of Europe”.

“Russia is trying to shatter the unity of our allies,” he said.

“Russia is also proving that energy resources are a weapon.

“That is why the EU needs to be united and impose an embargo on energy resources, depriving the Russians of their energy weapons.”


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## Craton

Yep, was just a matter of time before this would happen. Probably explains why Gazprom execs recently met untimely deaths, leaking sensitive material would be my guess.


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## Craton

Further update to my previous post from this tweet:


> Another Vice President of Gazprombank Igor Volobuev escaped to Ukraine, joined territorial defense forces there and gave this interview to the Insider, claiming there that recent family murder and then suicide of Gazprombank top manager Avaev were staged and it was a murder. Wow






> As people joke in replies to
> @the_ins_ru
> - it is safer to be a trooper in the Ukrainian defense forces than a Gazprombank top manager


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## Dona Ferentes

this is somewhat alarming, as the numerical strength just isn't there in the East to hold and to successfully ambush with Javelins and other anti-tank weapons.

 From ISW:


> .... along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne, Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported. Russian troops on this line are making better progress than any other Russian advances in this phase of the war. They are pushing from Izyum southwest toward Barvinkove and southeast toward Slovyansk. They are also pushing several columns west and south of Rubizhne, likely intending to encircle it and complete its capture. The Russian advances even in this area are proceeding methodically rather than rapidly, however, and it is not clear how far they will be able to drive or whether they will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in large numbers.


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## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> this is somewhat alarming, as the numerical strength just isn't there in the East to hold and to successfully ambush with Javelins and other anti-tank weapons.
> 
> From ISW:




Yes, I think they'll be in trouble until Russia get up to the river. That will be an obstacle they won't be able to cross as the Ukrainians will probably destroy all the bridges as a last resort. I think this was always Russia's plan. Attacking Kiev from the N and W was a feint to divert Ukrainian effort from the real objective, to steal the Russian speaking part of Ukraine, pretty much everything east of Dnipro.


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## Craton

Six Australian M777 howitzers sent to Ukraine have arrived into Poland.

Economic relief for Ukraine from the EU and UK



> The European Commission has proposed today to suspend for one year import duties on all Ukrainian exports to the European Union. The proposal, which is an unprecedented gesture of support for a country at war, would also see the suspension for one year of all EU anti-dumping and safeguard measures in place on Ukrainian steel exports.






> UK to cut tariffs on all goods from Ukraine to zero under the UK-Ukraine FTA, providing much-needed economic support.
> New export ban on products and technology that Russia could use to repress the people of Ukraine.
> Tariff measures are part of broad UK economic support to Ukraine, including £1bn in loan guarantees.


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## JohnDe

I am still amazed at how poor the Russian military has performed. It is pleasing on one level but like a cornered rabid dog there's no knowing what will happen, until the end -



> *How rotten is Russia’s army?*
> Vladimir Putin uses warfare to make up for Russia’s weaknesses. That is why he is so dangerous
> 
> The might of the modern Russian army was supposed to show the world that President Vladimir Putin had restored his country to greatness after the humiliation of the Soviet collapse. Instead, poor progress and heavy losses in Ukraine have exposed deep flaws within Russia. For those threatened by Mr Putin’s aggression, a diminished army is a relief. Unfortunately, it also leaves a nuclear-armed power with a point to prove.
> 
> So far, the invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia’s armed forces. About 15,000 troops have been killed in two months of fighting, according to Britain’s government. At least 1,600 armoured vehicles have been destroyed, along with dozens of aircraft and the flagship of the Black Sea fleet. The assault on the capital, Kyiv, was a chaotic failure.
> 
> Leon Trotsky wrote that “the army is a copy of society and suffers from all its diseases, usually at a higher temperature”. Fighting in the east and the south of Ukraine over the next few weeks will not only determine the course of the war, but it will also determine how much the Russian army can salvage its reputation—and the reputation of the society it embodies.
> 
> Our briefing this week sets out just how rotten the army has been. Russia’s defence budget, of over $250bn at purchasing power, is about three times that of Britain or France, but much of it is squandered or stolen. Mr Putin and his top commanders kept their invasion plans from senior officers, reflecting a crippling lack of trust. Disaffected troops, fed on out-of-date rations, have deserted their vehicles. Units have tortured, raped and murdered only to be honoured by the Kremlin. Russia has failed to win control of the skies or combine air power with tanks, artillery and infantry. Wallowing in corruption, unable to foster initiative or learn from their mistakes, its frustrated generals abandoned advanced military doctrine and fell back on flattening cities and terrorising civilians.
> 
> Ukraine’s highly motivated forces are a rebuke to these Russian failings. Despite being less numerous and less well armed, they resisted the invading army by passing decision-making to small, adaptable local units given up-to-the-minute intelligence. Even if the Russian campaign, now under a single commander, makes gains in Donbas, it will do so chiefly thanks to its sheer mass. Its claim to be a sophisticated modern force is as convincing as a tank turret rusting in a Ukrainian field.
> 
> For Mr Putin this is a crushing setback. That is partly because, although he controls a formidable propaganda machine to help drown out his critics, the loss of face threatens his standing at home. It is mostly because the use of military force is central to his strategy for making Russia count in the world.
> 
> Russia may be vast, but it is a medium-sized polity that still yearns to be a superpower. Its population ranks between Bangladesh and Mexico, its economy between Brazil and South Korea and its share of global exports between Taiwan and Switzerland. Although Russia enjoys some sympathy in non-aligned countries like South Africa and India, its soft power is ebbing—hastened by its display of incompetence and brutality in Ukraine.
> 
> To fill the gap between its power and aspirations—and to resist what he sees as America’s encroachment—Mr Putin has repeatedly turned to the only sphere where Russia can still purport to be world-class: military force. In the past 14 years he has invaded Georgia and Ukraine (twice) and fought in Syria. His mercenaries have deployed to Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan and now Ukraine. Mr Putin is a global bully obsessed with his country’s inadequacies. Contrast that with China, which also has ambitions, but has so far been able to get results using its growing economic and diplomatic heft.
> 
> Humiliation in Ukraine weakens Russia’s last claim to superpower status. The war may yet drag on, and while it does Russia will not be able to mount big operations elsewhere. Equipment, ammunition and manpower are being used up fast. Restoring Russia’s forces to full strength and training them to avoid the mistakes in Ukraine could take years. Should sanctions remain because Mr Putin is still in power, the task will require even longer. Russian missiles are chock-full of Western components. The flight of talented, outward-looking Russians will weigh on the economy. All the while, the less that Russia can project military power, the less it will be able to disrupt the rest of the world.
> 
> That will be welcome. Yet, the invasion of Ukraine also holds lessons that are less comforting. For one thing, it shows that in pursuit of this strategy Mr Putin is willing to take risks that to many others—including many Russians—make no sense. Further decline in Russian power could lead to still more reckless aggression.
> 
> Ukraine also shows that in future wars if Russian forces cannot prevail on the battlefield, they will resort to atrocities. A weaker Russian army could be an even more brutal one. For those around the world facing Russian aggression, that is a terrible prospect.
> 
> Ultimately, weakness may lead Russia to the last arena where it is still indisputably a superpower: chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. From the start of this war, Mr Putin and his government have repeatedly brandished the threat of weapons of mass destruction. Mr Putin is rational, in that he wants his regime to survive, so the chances of their use probably remain slim. But as Russia’s armed forces run out of conventional options, the temptation to escalate will surely grow.
> 
> The message for the wider world is that Mr Putin’s military opportunism in Ukraine must be seen to fail by his own officers and strategists, who may then temper his next headstrong scheme. A stalemate in Donbas would merely set up the next fight and it could be even more threatening than today’s.
> 
> Yet, even if Mr Putin is defeated, he will remain dangerous. The message for nato is that it needs to update its tripwire defence. This rests on the idea that a Russian attempt to take a bite out of, say, the Baltic states may succeed at first, but would trigger a wider war which nato would eventually win. That defence involves the risk of miscalculation and escalation, which are more fraught than ever if Russia’s conventional forces are weak. Better to have a large forward force that Russia would find hard to defeat from the very start. The best way to be safe from Mr Putin and his rotten army is to deter him from fighting at all. ■


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## Craton

How rotten indeed!

Fléchettes found in Bucha victims: evidence of Russian war crimes continues to grow.​
Forensic Report Confirms Russians Fired Brutal Metal Darts at Slain Bucha Civilians​


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## Dona Ferentes

Craton said:


> How rotten indeed!



treatment of civilians is abhorrent


> _The Russians took away their boots, filled them with water and put them back on. Then the prisoners were forced to lie face down on the field in the freezing cold. "We lay like that for three or four nights, under the rain, getting colder and colder,"_



taken to Russia, interrogated, released after weeks in prisoner swap. Toes amputated from frostbite.

and these are survivors. Others have been "filtrated"?








						A Ukrainian father's terrifying journey to a Russian prison and back
					

Nikita Horban was abducted from his village and taken to Russia. He would come back without any toes.



					www.bbc.com


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## Value Collector

Sean K said:


> I think the Vatican's support is most significant.
> 
> "As of March 2022, The Vatican has sent two Cardinals to Ukraine to provide “material and spiritual support” to the Ukrainian people"



Hopefully those Cardinals have strong backs, and can fill   hescos and sand bags.


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## Craton

* Company of troops approx. 100-225
Russian losses 'colossal' - Zelensky aide​


> As heavy fighting continues in the east, a Ukrainian presidential adviser has acknowledged serious losses - but said Russia's were even worse.
> 
> Oleksiy Arestovych said Ukraine had lost control of some towns and villages - but claimed Russia's own casualties had been "colossal".
> 
> Arestovych said Russia was losing a company of troops* every day, according to remarks quoted by the UNIAN news agency.
> 
> He said his soldiers were continuing to conduct a successful defensive operation.
> 
> It was not possible to independently verify the claims.
> 
> Earlier this month, Russia conceded that it had suffered "significant losses" of troops during its invasion - but has not been frequently updating its numbers.
> 
> Meanwhile, the civilian toll continues to mount as fighting in the east of Ukraine rages on.
> 
> The regional governor of Luhansk - part of the Donbas - has again urged remaining civilians to leave.
> 
> Meanwhile, police in the Donetsk region say three people were killed and six wounded over the past day during Russian strikes.
> 
> And the north-eastern Kharkiv region continues to see heavy fighting as well. Officials there say five civilians were killed in the latest shelling.


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## Belli

Listen for the punchline.


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## JohnDe

> *Why is Russia setting up detention centres in Ukraine?*
> 
> “Filtration camps”, a tool of terror used since the 1940s have reappeared
> 
> Since russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine began, hundreds of thousands of people have been forcibly deported to Russia by occupying forces. The exact number is unclear: on April 21st Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, put the figure at half a million. Russian officials have claimed that 420,000 civilians have been “voluntarily evacuated”. Many passed through Russian “filtration camps” on their way out of Ukraine. What are these detention centres?
> 
> The concept of fil’tratsiia or filtration emerged at the end of the second world war, as the Soviet Union and other Allied forces liberated prisoners from the Nazis. Some 2.4m Soviet citizens—mostly soldiers—survived concentration camps. But their release placed them in the cross-hairs of military commissars, who worried that those who had been taken prisoner or displaced by war had been exposed to liberal influences abroad. Forced repatriation resulted in an estimated 5m people being sent back to the Soviet Union. To counter anti-Soviet ideology, more than 4m of them were subjected to filtration, undergoing rigorous screening, interrogation and incarceration in holding stations set up by the secret police and intelligence agencies. Some 280,000 ended up in gulags. Five decades later, filtration reappeared in Chechnya, a predominantly Muslim region in the northern Caucasus. During the two wars of the 1990s Russian authorities arbitrarily detained civilians at checkpoints, sending thousands to camps in an effort to stamp out Chechen separatism, adherents of which the Kremlin demonised as terrorists and bandits. Widespread human-rights abuses including rape, extortion, beatings and torture were documented by human-rights groups. In many cases, detainees simply disappeared.
> 
> There are disturbing parallels in Ukraine. Before Russia’s invasion, American officials said that Russian forces were creating lists of people to be killed or sent to camps if Russia occupied parts of the country. Likely targets included Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile, anti-corruption activists, members of religious and ethnic minorities and LGBT people. A satellite image captured in March by Maxar Technologies, an American firm, showed Russian-backed forces had begun building a temporary camp of regimented blue-and-white tents in the Russian-controlled village of Bezimenne near the port-city of Mariupol, in south-eastern Ukraine. According to witnesses, Ukrainians sent there were photographed and forced to turn over their mobile phones and identity documents before being interrogated and deported to Russia. The Kremlin describes these people as “refugees”. Rossiyskaya Gazeta, a pro-Kremlin newspaper, claims that 5,000 civilians were screened at Bezimenne to prevent “Ukrainian nationalists from infiltrating Russia”. But escapees tell a different story, comparing conditions to those of a ghetto or concentration camp. They claim to have witnessed torture and killings carried out by Russian security services to weed out “Ukrainian Nazis”.
> 
> According to the UN, the deportation or transfer of people from an occupied territory constitutes a war crime. Russia insists that the relocation of civilians by its armed forces is benign and voluntary. But filtration camps appear to be a tool of war, used to erase Ukrainian identity.












						Why is Russia setting up detention centres in Ukraine?
					

“Filtration camps”, a tool of terror used since the 1940s have reappeared




					www.economist.com


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## JohnDe

> Macquarie Bank’s Viktor Shvets, New York-based head of global and Asia-Pacific strategy also predicts China will not be in a position to open up fully until the middle of next year.
> 
> Born in Ukraine and educated in both the Soviet system and the Australian system, Shvets was a highly credentialed home-grown pick for MacBank’s annual conference on Wednesday.
> 
> He delivered a sobering assessment of the war in Ukraine, which he says will continue for a long time.
> 
> Shvets dismisses the prevailing view that NATO expansion and the aggressive privatisation of Russian industry in the 1990s triggered the war.
> 
> In the 1990s, he argues, Russia had the choice to become either a democracy or reconstitute the Russian empire: a democracy would allow former soviet states like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan to develop independently, but an empire would put these states in a very dangerous neighbourhood.
> 
> “It has become clear that Russia is not becoming a democracy, it’s not integrating. It is becoming an empire. As soon as you make that decision, not just (Vladimir) Putin, the country as a whole, it is almost inevitable that Ukraine and Belarus somehow have to be integrated or kept within the Russian sphere of influence,” he says.
> 
> Shvets says the house view, consistent since the invasion, has been that there is no basis for compromise. This is less about NATO. Russia is not after Ukraine neutrality, but disarmed neutrality and also control – not over everything, but all important strategic decisions have to be under Russian control.
> 
> “Countries like Russia or China regard themselves as large continental powers. They don’t view that every country has the same sovereignty. Large countries deserve to have sovereignty. Small countries only have the sovereignty they are allowed to have. The closer you are to China, Russia, the more you lose sovereignty,” he says.
> 
> Shvets says behind the imperative to rebuild the Soviet sphere lies historical grievances, from the Napoleonic Wars, the northern wars, the Mongols, the Germans.
> 
> “The West tends to look in terms of opportunity and profit maximisers, look at everything as marginal returns. Because of the history of Russia they tend to believe they are surrounded by enemies, they tend to be loss minimisers, to be pain minimisers. They tend to look in average rather than marginal terms and the average doesn’t change that quickly. So the country very much feels they are besieged.”
> 
> The Ukrainian-born Shvets says true conflict resolution will only come when one side or the other is exhausted. An independent Ukraine is now armed to the teeth.






			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/macquarie-banks-viktor-shvets-warns-us-to-expect-disinflation-in-two-years/news-story/604225d967dc53511dac167a2686c4ff


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## Craton

Sorry for the double posting, thought it appropriate as could be fake news but if not...








						Is Putin Preparing To Hand Over Power To Undergo Cancer Surgery?
					

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State told us they "don't have anything to offer" on the rumor.




					www.snopes.com
				



Physical gestures and posture seem to be at odds so...
Putin’s Cancer Surgery Fact Or Fiction? Will Ex-FSB Chief Patrushev Be Given Charge Of Ukraine War?​


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Snake Island hit by Ukrainian bombs



Two Su-27s made low level bombing raids. Drone footage shows immediate and secondary explosions. Previously, TB-2 drones had hit the wharf area and sunk a landing barge. SAM missile systems neutralised, says the commentary

The strategic rationale would be to deny any Russki air corridor from Crimea to the breakaway area of Moldova, or at least reduce likelihood of another front opening up (and putting pressure on Odesa)


----------



## Belli

It gets down to the numbers of war.


----------



## Belli

Skip to 1:57.


----------



## bluekelah

Dona Ferentes said:


> Snake Island hit by Ukrainian bombs
> 
> 
> 
> Two Su-27s made low level bombing raids. Drone footage shows immediate and secondary explosions. Previously, TB-2 drones had hit the wharf area and sunk a landing barge. SAM missile systems neutralised, says the commentary
> 
> The strategic rationale would be to deny any Russki air corridor from Crimea to the breakaway area of Moldova, or at least reduce likelihood of another front opening up (and putting pressure on Odesa)




Lol and the media reports drone strike taking out a landing craft on snake island. Pro - Ukrainian propaganda cant get their stories straight. They even had to admit there was no such ace pilot called "Ghost of Kyiv" when the narrative became that the ghost plane was shot down.

I believe the Ukrainian airforce now only consists of launching American drones from secret locations and maybe even from nearby NATO countries,  supplied by the americans. Any regular sized ukrainian jet fighter would be picked up almost immediately by Russian radar and taken out, that is if there are any left. Drones are remotely controlled and can be painted in Ukrainian colors.

Russia had already taken or destroyed most of the airforce infrastructure Ukraine had in the first couple weeks of the "military operation" 

I expect if they do anymore drone strikes Russia may actually declare war on which ever nation was launching the drones or supplying them. Lets not forget Russians have satellite imagery as well and know whats happening.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Putin dies and goes to hell, but after a while, he is given a leave pass for a day.  He goes to Moscow, enters a bar, orders a vodka, and asks the bartender: “Is Crimea still ours?”

“Yes, it is.”

“What about the Donbas?”

“Also ours.”

“And Kyiv?”

“We still have it in our sights”

Satisfied, Putin smiles, finishes his drink, and asks: “Thanks, how much do I owe you?”

“4 Euros or $US4.20 ... either will do."


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Too much time can be spent on this Dutch site






						Oryx
					

YOUR DESCRIPTION HERE




					www.oryxspioenkop.com
				




not entirely up to date ... but interesting stuff


----------



## basilio

The repercussions of the war in Ukraine are bankrupting countries around the world. 
Sri Lanka is the first to fall. It won't be the last.









						Sri Lanka is the first domino to fall in the face of a global debt crisis
					

The south Asian country is the first to buckle under economic pressures compounded by Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it won’t be the last




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Country Lad

Using Sri Lanka as an example of the repercussion of the war in Ukraine is stretching the facts more than a little.  The country was just about broke before the Russian invasion.


----------



## Smurf1976

Country Lad said:


> Using Sri Lanka as an example of the repercussion of the war in Ukraine is stretching the facts more than a little.  The country was just about broke before the Russian invasion.



It was but the war won't have helped.

Eg fuel costs more now than it did previously. That might not have been the cause but it'll be making the situation worse for the people there.

Same as the pandemic didn't cause it but won't have helped. Another straw on the camel's back.

My understanding of the primary cause though is that Sri Lankan farmers stopped fertilizing the fields, causing crop yields to plummet. Where that has relevance is that whilst the war didn't prompt that action in Sri Lanka, it's effectively forcing the same action to be taken in other countries due to fertilizer shortages and will lead to the same outcome of reduced food supply.


----------



## Craton

To bypass sanctions, Russia has passed a law that legalizes the Grey Market allowing Parallel Imports, 


> Multinational Brands such as Apple, Tesla, GMC, HP and Sony have all announced that they intend to EXIT RUSSIA. They have SHUT their factories in Russia and STOPPED the EXPORT of all products to Russian markets. However the Russian Authorities have now PASSED A LAW which allows the IMPORT of BRANDED PRODUCTS without the BRAND OWNER'S CONSENT via the GRAY MARKET. As a result these businesses have now LOST CONTROL OF THEIR BRANDS and will be unable to prevent the sale in Russia. In this video I look at what the GRAY MARKET is, which brands are affected, what the legal position is and what the likely outcome will be.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

another site  ... https://militaryland.net/ ... good maps

Pressure relieved on Kharkiv, Donetsk looking tough, as RU forces being redeployed from Mariupol, And the Kherson / Mykolaiv axis crucial


----------



## Craton

Of course the real cost can't be tallied until it's over but the approx. cost of this little escapade so far:

Up to 2nd May 2022 - Ukraine: Infrastructure damage approx. $92 billion with approx total: $560~$600 billion

Up to 12 May 2022 - Russia: Hard to estimate but ranges anywhere from $1 billion to $20 billion per day!

Add other countries contributions.
Add the inflationary costs of commodities e.g. an extra $350 million added to the cost of buying oil since the start to the conflict.
Add lost GDP of those KIA.

Just a basic overview and doesn't account for the human suffering not only in Ukraine but other regions relying on vital commodities.

Data as per Joe Blogs.


----------



## Belli

I cannot located but there is a post here somewhere showing the costs to some companies which have withdrawn from Russia.  Add Siemens (turbines, trains, medical technology) to the list.









						Siemens to withdraw from Russia after 170 years
					

The German company has already taken a €600 million hit from sanctions on Russia




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes

from ISW. 13 May .. https://www.understandingwar.org/

_Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities_.


----------



## 3 hound

$40 billion passed by US Congress on top of the previous billions passed for the Ukraine war effort while US farmers are struggling to buy diesel or afford fertiliser (that couldn't end badly for anyone now could it). Baby formula at risk of being rationed in US (let that sink in). Whitehouse blames US citizens for hoarding.

Hmmmm, who could be benefitting from keeping the war going as long and bloody as possible???


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Dona Ferentes said:


> _Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities_.



and I found this interview with Henry K to articulate the _realpolitik _quite well

10 May, 2022

T_his is an edited transcript of a discussion between former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger and Financial Times US national editor Edward Luce on May 7 in Washington._

*Financial Times:* Earlier this year, we commemorated the 50th anniversary of the Nixon visit to China, the Shanghai communique. You, of course, were the organiser, the orchestrator of this Sino-US agreement. And it was a major shift in the Cold War: you split China from Russia. It feels like we’ve gone 180 degrees. And now Russia and China are back in a very tight relationship. My opening question to you is: are we in a new cold war with China?
*Henry Kissinger*_:_ At the time we opened to China, Russia was the principal enemy, but our relations with China were about as bad as they could be. Our view in opening to China was that it was unwise, when you have two enemies, to treat them exactly alike.
What produced the opening were tensions that developed autonomously between Russia and China. [Former Soviet Union head of state Leonid] Brezhnev could not conceive that China and the United States could get together. But Mao, despite all his ideological hostility, was ready to begin conversations.
In principle, the [Sino-Russian] alliance is against vested interests, it’s now established. But it does not look to me as if it is an intrinsically permanent relationship

*FT:* The Biden administration is framing its grand geopolitical challenge as being democracy versus autocracy. I’m picking up an implicit hint that it’s the wrong framing?
*HK:* We have to be conscious of the differences of ideology and of interpretation that exists. We should use this consciousness to apply it in our own analysis of the importance of issues as they arise, rather than make it the principal issue of confrontation, unless we are prepared to make regime change the principal goal of our policy. I think, given the evolution of technology, and the enormous destructiveness of weapons that now exist, [seeking regime change] may be imposed on us by the hostility of others, but we should avoid generating it with our own attitudes.

*FT:* You have probably more experience than any person alive of how to manage a stand-off between two nuclear-armed superpowers. But today’s nuclear language, which is coming thick and fast from [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, from people around him, where do you put that in terms of the threat we are facing today?
*HK:* We are now [faced with] with technologies where the rapidity of exchange, the subtlety of the inventions, can produce levels of catastrophe that were not even imaginable. And the strange aspect of the present situation is that the weapons are multiplying on both sides and their sophistication is increasing every year.
But there’s almost no discussion internationally about what would happen if the weapons actually became used. My appeal in general, on whatever side you are, is to understand that we are now living in a totally new era, and we have gotten away with neglecting that aspect. But as technology spreads around the world, as it does inherently, diplomacy and war will need a different content, and that will be a challenge.

*FT:* You’ve met Putin 20 to 25 times. The Russian military nuclear doctrine is they will respond with nuclear weapons if they feel that the regime is under existential threat. Where do you think Putin’s red line is in this situation?
*HK:* I have met Putin as a student of international affairs about once a year for a period of maybe 15 years for purely academic strategic discussions. I thought his basic convictions were a kind of mystic faith in Russian history ...  and that he felt offended, in that sense, not by anything we did particularly at first, but by this huge gap that opened up with Europe and the East. He was offended and threatened because Russia was threatened by the absorption of this whole area into NATO. This does not excuse, and I would not have predicted, an attack of the magnitude of taking over a recognised country.
I think he miscalculated the situation he faced internationally and he obviously miscalculated Russia’s capabilities to sustain such a major enterprise – and when the time for settlement comes, all need to take that into consideration, that we are not going back to the previous relationship but to a position for Russia that will be different because of this – and not because we demand it, but because they produced it.

*FT:* Do you think Putin’s getting good information, and if he isn’t, what further miscalculations should we be preparing for?
*HK:* In all these crises, one has to try to understand what the inner red line is for the opposite number  ... The obvious question is how long will this escalation continue and how much scope is there for further escalation? Or has he reached the limit of his capability, and he has to decide at what point escalating the war will strain his society to a point that will limit its fitness to conduct international policy as a great power in the future.
I have no judgment when he comes to that point. When that point is reached will he escalate by moving into a category of weapons that in 70 years of their existence have never been used? If that line is crossed, that will be an extraordinarily significant event. Because we have not gone through globally what the next dividing lines would be. One thing we could not do in my opinion is just accept it.

*FT:* You’ve met [Chinese President] Xi Jinping many times and his predecessors – you know China well. What lessons is China drawing from this?
*HK:* I would suspect that any Chinese leader now would be reflecting on how to avoid getting into the situation in which Putin got himself into, and how to be in a position where in any crisis that might arise, they would not have a major part of the world turned against them.

_— Financial Times

_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Latest from Kherson, Ukraine. 



> *"There were rumors that I hanged myself in a cell." – Viktor Marunyaka, the headman of Kherson released from captivity, spoke about torture and interrogations he experienced*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Viktor Marunyak, the headman of Stara Zburyevka, was abducted by Russians and tortured for several weeks. Finally, together with his wife, he managed to evacuate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> He speaks about captivity:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They brought me to one of the bases - "Zburovsky Corner". I was kept there for the first three days. The room was cement, and cool. The first night we slept standing up. They beat me for the first day, then the second day and the third.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Then we slept while sitting. They could only give us a cup of tea in the morning – the whole meal for the day. For two, three hours they were keeping us undressed. Then they say, now we will go to the river, you will swim and you will drown. Or they point a gun at one of us and say, “Whether you will speak up or not. Let's shoot him now."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On the fourth day, they put a sack over our heads and took us away. Moved to Kherson. There they have beaten us again. Then they brought an anesthetic phone that produced current. They started to beat me with a significant current. Somehow they do it all with pleasure. Several more interrogations followed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Then they took me to our district back, I went to the hospital. I’ve stayed there for ten days. My relatives lived near the hospital. I spent the night there, washed my face for the first time, and ate something. I was able to call my wife because for three weeks she didn't know where I was at all. Nobody knew. There were rumors that I hanged myself in the cell. While I was gone, my wife had two searches. Either searches, or looting. They stole everything from food to gold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And two days ago they were looking for me again in the village. We already left, and got out just in time. And three days ago, the door was broken in the house, because there was a rotation. They left with the loot, and now they are robbing new houses…




gg


----------



## Belli

This link was sent to me.  My mind boggles.  Some grim humour in the comments too such as "I give this turret toss an 8.2. Clean dismount, good rotation, 3 1/2 pike twist, and it really stuck the landing. You just have to admire that form, the rotation control, the perfect landing! Wow, just Wow."


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Mariupol -  still holding out

 

White phosphorus or thermite?  (on an already burned and devastated environment)


----------



## divs4ever

basilio said:


> The repercussions of the war in Ukraine are bankrupting countries around the world.
> Sri Lanka is the first to fall. It won't be the last.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sri Lanka is the first domino to fall in the face of a global debt crisis
> 
> 
> The south Asian country is the first to buckle under economic pressures compounded by Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it won’t be the last
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



 am not sure you can blame Sri Lanka on the Russia-Ukraine thing 

 HOWEVER i am surprised neither India nor China  stepped in  to build stronger relations with Sri Lanka 

  India with the idea of forming it's own trading bloc ( as a sub-set of BRICs ) and China  looking for  a friendly port  bordering on the middle-east region 

 but the economic contagion from the conflict are liable to be far-reaching


----------



## divs4ever

Craton said:


> To bypass sanctions, Russia has passed a law that legalizes the Grey Market allowing Parallel Imports,




 more importantly it would probably allow a flood  of counterfeits , which i doubt the Russians would mind as long as they were paying 'cheap, knock-off' prices 

 i remember an associate who traveled to China when the first iPads  were released , so being a computer professional  bought a selection ( a REAL iPad  , some close copies , and a clone .. externally different but internally superior to the genuine article  .. all the optional upgrades included at less than half the real iPad's cost )

 i am sure Apple would  be delighted to lose the market share to Foxconn back-door escapees


----------



## Craton

From the ABC: Maca's to cease ops in Russia.



> McDonald's has started the process of selling its Russian business, which includes 850 restaurants that employ 62,000 people, making it the latest major Western corporation to exit Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February.




From The Economic Times India: Companies sell their businesses in Russia and/or assets seized by the Russia.



> Some Western companies have agreed to sell their Russian assets or hand them over to local managers as they scramble to comply with sanctions over the Ukraine conflict and deal with threats from the Kremlin that foreign-owned assets may be seized.



Also, don't forget the threats to the companies and the employees and their families if companies didn't comply with Moscow's directives!

From Forbes:


> French carmaker Renault has sold its Russian assets to the Russian government, the company announced Monday, the first major nationalization of a Western company’s assets since Moscow threatened to punish those leaving the country over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



How will this impact?
A week or so behind but here's Deloitte's Weekly global economic update for the week of 9th May 2022, includes PMI.



> Purchasing managers’ indices and the global economy​
> The global manufacturing industry suffered a deceleration in activity in April, according to the latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) from IHS Markit. In fact, growth of activity in the global industry hit the lowest level since August 2020, largely due to a sizable lockdown-related slowdown in China.
> PMIs are forward-looking indicators meant to signal the direction of activity in the manufacturing industry. They are composed of sub-indices such as output, new orders, export orders, employment, pricing, inventories, pipelines, and sentiment. A reading above 50 indicates growing activity; the higher the number, the faster the growth—and vice versa.
> 
> The global PMI fell from 52.9 in March to 52.2 in April, the lowest since August 2020.  The deceleration was driven by an absolute decline in output and a deceleration in new orders and employment. In addition, the global sub-indices for input and output prices indicated an acceleration of inflation in April, likely the result of disruption from the war in Ukraine as well as lockdowns in China. Of the 20 countries analyzed, the highest PMIs were in the Netherlands, United States, Australia, Austria, and Canada. The lowest PMIs were in China, Mexico, Myanmar, Taiwan, and Brazil. Only China and Mexico had PMIs below 50 indicating declining activity.
> 
> The most notable PMI report came from China. There, the manufacturing PMI fell from 48.1 in March to 46.0 in April, a level indicating a rapid decline in activity and the lowest PMI since the start of the pandemic. The sub-index for output fell at the steepest pace since February 2020 when China was largely locked down. It fell from 49.5 in March to 44.4 in April. There was also a sharp decline in new orders, dropping from 48.8 in March to 42.6 in April. Export orders fell to the lowest level since June 2020. In addition, the time it takes for inputs to be delivered to manufacturers increased sharply, indicating renewed supply chain trouble. Some companies reported the cancellation of orders due to difficulty in producing and transporting products. Despite this, there was an increase in backlogs.
> 
> All these difficulties were entirely due to the imposition of severe restrictions on activity meant to quell transmission of the virus, including the severe lockdown in Shanghai, China’s financial hub. Although survey respondents indicated optimism over the long-term, they also expressed concern about how long current restrictions would last. This remains unknown.
> 
> The troubles in China, as well as the war in Ukraine, led to a sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI for neighboring Taiwan. There, the PMI fell from 54.1 in March to 51.7 in April, a level indicating modest growth in activity. The sub-indices for output and employment indicated a decline. The sub-index for new orders showed no direction while the sub-index for export orders declined sharply. Only the sub-indices for delivery times and inventories improved. The health of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector is a good indicator for the global technology industry. The decline in Taiwan’s PMI shows how the lockdowns in China are affecting this key industry.
> 
> The lockdowns in China also affected Japanese manufacturing, but not as much. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell from 54.1 in March to 53.5 in April. This indicates a healthy rate of growth. Output was mostly unchanged as were new domestic orders. However, export orders dropped sharply, mainly due to the situation in China. That, and the war in Ukraine, added to supply chain disruption. The survey found a sharp decline in business confidence among Japanese manufacturers.
> 
> Growth of manufacturing activity remains strong in the United States and Europe, although there was a sizable deceleration in Europe in April. In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI fell from 56.5 in March to 55.5 in April, a 15-month low but still a number indicating strong growth. The decline in the eurozone was largely due to supply chain disruption which led to soaring input prices and shortages. This was especially true in Germany which saw a very sharp decline in its PMI to a 20-month low.  German automakers have been disrupted by lack of access to components made in Ukraine. France, Italy, and Spain faced less difficulty. Although the overall PMI for the eurozone remained healthy, the sub-index for output showed no increase in production.
> 
> Finally, the US manufacturing sector performed well in April. The manufacturing PMI increased from 58.8 in March to 59.2 in April, the highest level in seven months and one indicating rapid growth in activity. Evidently, the United States has not been as badly affected by events in Ukraine and China as other parts of the world. In April, there was strong growth of output, new orders, export orders, employment, and business confidence. Markit commented that “demand from consumers and businesses is proving encouragingly robust despite severe inflationary pressures, which intensified further during April.” Markit concluded that growth of economic activity in the second quarter is likely to be good, even as inflation gets worse.
> 
> 
> The latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for services in major countries demonstrates that the pattern of growth in this industry is hugely influenced by how governments react to the pandemic. Economic restrictions prevent people from going to restaurants and theaters, while easing of restrictions has the opposite effect. In China, the services PMI fell to the second lowest level on record in April, indicating a collapse in activity largely due to the various lockdowns that are currently in place. In the eurozone, however, the continued removal of government restrictions led to an acceleration in services activity in April, with the eurozone services PMI at 57.7, an eight-month high and a level reflecting rapid growth in activity.  In the United States, growth of services remained strong but declined somewhat, hitting 55.6 in April, following a rapid surge in March. In India, services activity grew very rapidly following further removal of restrictions. The April PMI was 57.9.
> Let’s focus on China. The services PMI for China fell from 42.0 in March to 36.2 in April, the second lowest on record and a level indicating a catastrophic decline in activity. This was entirely due to lockdowns that limited mobility and production. The sub-indices indicate a decline on both the demand and supply side of the services industry. There was a decline in output and a severe decline in new orders. Travel restrictions meant a paucity of export orders. Employment fell modestly and backlogs of work increased as the pandemic had a negative impact on supply chain efficiency. Input prices were up but output prices fell. The latter meant that service enterprises, facing limited demand, were compelled to cut prices in order to attract sales. Interestingly, the sub-index for business sentiment was positive, meaning that businesses were optimistic that the current crisis will ultimately pass. Meanwhile, the weakness of both the services and manufacturing PMIs (the latter was 46.0 in April) bode poorly for GDP growth in the second quarter.


----------



## JohnDe

_There have been other morale-boosters, too. Ukrainian warplanes are active over Donbas, including Izyum itself, despite the proximity to Russian air-defence systems over the border to the east. In the past two weeks, Ukrainian drones and jets have also repeatedly struck Russian helicopters, landing craft and surface-to-air missiles on and around Snake Island, a tiny outcrop in the north-western corner of the Black Sea, near Odessa. And while Russia is struggling to replenish its forces, Western arms—including heavy artillery—are now flowing into Ukraine._​​_“Overall, the battle is finely balanced,” says the official. “Ukrainian personnel are highly motivated and highly experienced, and [deployed] in sufficient numbers to hold a defensive line—but perhaps don’t have the capabilities they might need.” Western weaponry has been abundant, but not decisive, so far at least. Russian forces, despite their heavy losses and tactical shortcomings, still “significantly overmatch the Ukrainians in terms of their overall capability”. That assessment was echoed on May 10th by Lieutenant-General Scott Berrier, the head of America’s Defence Intelligence Agency. “The Russians aren’t winning and the Ukrainians aren’t winning,” he said. “We’re at a bit of a stalemate here.” Ukrainians receive such pronouncements with scepticism. They have been underestimated before. _​


> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is running out of steam, again​How far can Ukraine take its counter-offensives?​
> Eighty years ago the second Battle of Kharkov was raging in what was then the western Soviet Union. The Red Army had heroically driven the Nazi _Wehrmacht_ back from the gates of Moscow. It gathered in a bulge west of Izyum, a town to the south of Kharkov, as Ukraine’s second city was then known. The subsequent Soviet offensive, launched on May 12th, was a disaster. Soviet armies were driven back and encircled. Over 170,000 Soviet troops were killed. Nikita Khrushchev later focused on the battle when denouncing his predecessor as Soviet leader, Stalin. “This is Stalin’s military ‘genius’,” he sneered, citing the crude tactics of frontal assault. “This is what it cost us.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Russian army is once again gathered around Izyum. And once more it is on the retreat from Kharkiv, as the city is now called, after another underwhelming campaign. It has been a month since Russia, having abandoned its assault on Kyiv, launched a fresh offensive in the eastern Donbas region. The idea was to encircle Ukrainian troops in a large salient stretching from Izyum in the north to the city of Donetsk in the south, in part by driving south from Izyum.
> 
> There have been minor successes. Russia has taken almost all of Luhansk province—it held only the southern part before the war—bar a salient around the well-defended city of Severodonetsk. It has also pushed south of Izyum, taking villages towards Barvinkove, an important rail junction, and the industrial cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Yet progress has been achingly slow—one or two kilometres a day—and casualties heavy. The war is now dominated by grinding artillery duels, rather than swift mechanised offensives. Much of Donetsk province is still in Ukrainian hands.
> 
> That is no surprise. Conventional military theory says that attackers need a three-to-one advantage over defenders to break through defensive lines. Russia is far short of that. On May 15th British defence intelligence said that the Russian armed forces had lost a third of the combat power originally committed to the invasion of Ukraine. Russian units are operating below their full strength, some severely so, despite efforts to coax ex-servicemen back into action with big pay packets. Even if Russian forces get as far as Severodonetsk, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the heavy casualties from urban warfare are likely to sap their capacity to fight yet further.
> 
> “The Russians continue to make seemingly the same tactical errors in how they are approaching the fight,” says a Western official. One example of that came from Bilohorivka, a settlement south-east of Izyum, where the bank of the Siverskyi Donets river lies littered with the carcasses of dozens of Russian armoured vehicles after Ukrainian artillery destroyed a pontoon bridge and foiled a crossing a week ago. “The Russians clearly intended to invest in this axis and throw a lot of combat power down it,” says Major General Mick Ryan, a retired Australian officer. “This is a significant setback for them.”
> 
> Victories like that have buoyed the Ukrainians. Though much of Donbas is lost, Ukrainian troops have held the line in Severodonetsk, despite its vulnerable position, and imposed a heavy cost on their opponents. Ukrainian counter-attacks to the north and east of Kharkiv have forced the Russians back tens of kilometres, out of artillery range of the city and, in places, back to the border. A video published on May 15th by Illia Ponomarenko of the Kyiv Independent showed the 127th territorial defence brigade placing a border post back into the ground and gathering around it, triumphantly (see image above). Those counter-attacks may eventually allow Ukraine to threaten Russian supply lines through Vovenchansk, which lies on the road between the Russian city of Belgorod and the frontlines around Izyum, and perhaps even to strike Russian rear areas around Belgorod itself, says Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting, which tracks the war.
> 
> There have been other morale-boosters, too. Ukrainian warplanes are active over Donbas, including Izyum itself, despite the proximity to Russian air-defence systems over the border to the east. In the past two weeks, Ukrainian drones and jets have also repeatedly struck Russian helicopters, landing craft and surface-to-air missiles on and around Snake Island, a tiny outcrop in the north-western corner of the Black Sea, near Odessa. And while Russia is struggling to replenish its forces, Western arms—including heavy artillery—are now flowing into Ukraine.
> 
> On May 11th America’s House of Representatives approved a $40bn aid package for Ukraine which, if approved by the Senate, would bring the cumulative total for American support to $54bn—equivalent to 7% of the Biden’s administration’s proposed defence budget. “Time is working in Ukraine’s favour,” argues Mr Muzyka. “Unless Russia conducts mobilisation…its armed forces will not only stall over the next few weeks, but the influx of Western weaponry and Ukrainian personnel will allow Kyiv to start pushing Russian units back along a much broader front.”
> 
> Some Ukrainian generals are heady with success. “The breaking point will be in the second part of August,” declared Major General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, in an interview with Sky News on May 14th. “Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year,” he promised. “As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea.” But in private, many Ukrainian officials are more sombre about their prospects.
> 
> Russia has found it hard going in Donbas in part because this region has been an active warzone for eight years, since Russia first fomented, and backed, an armed insurgency against Ukraine in 2014. The soldiers of the Joint Forces Operation, as the Ukrainian units in Donbas are called, are battle-hardened and well equipped. But they are also dug into defensive positions, such as trenches. That shields them well from the relentless artillery barrages that have turned parts of Donbas into a pocked moonscape in recent weeks. But it also makes them less mobile, and thus less able to counter-attack.
> 
> Ukrainian forces are capable of “tactical manoeuvres”, like the operations around Kharkiv, says the Western official. But scaling this up along a front which stretches hundreds of kilometres in Donbas alone, and 1,300km in total—in other words, turning counter-attacks into a full-blown counter-offensive—will be a challenge. Russia’s woes in Ukraine have served as a reminder that war tends to favour the defender. If Ukraine were to attack dug-in Russian positions, it would find it harder going. For exactly that reason, Russian forces in Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia provinces in southern Ukraine, have been digging trenches and building concrete fortifications, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think-tank.
> 
> “Overall, the battle is finely balanced,” says the official. “Ukrainian personnel are highly motivated and highly experienced, and [deployed] in sufficient numbers to hold a defensive line—but perhaps don’t have the capabilities they might need.” Western weaponry has been abundant, but not decisive, so far at least. Russian forces, despite their heavy losses and tactical shortcomings, still “significantly overmatch the Ukrainians in terms of their overall capability”. That assessment was echoed on May 10th by Lieutenant-General Scott Berrier, the head of America’s Defence Intelligence Agency. “The Russians aren’t winning and the Ukrainians aren’t winning,” he said. “We’re at a bit of a stalemate here.” Ukrainians receive such pronouncements with scepticism. They have been underestimated before.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is running out of steam, again
> 
> 
> How far can Ukraine take its counter-offensives?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.economist.com


----------



## Belli

So in essence @JohnDe it would seem Russia's WWII strategy isn't working against modern military tactics.


----------



## Bill M




----------



## Dona Ferentes

Bill M said:


>




She's a piece of work.  Could get a job here in the Press Gallery.


----------



## finicky

He's just excellent, trying to get at the truth as far as it is possible in that forum. She's running interference.
What a wonderful thing it will be if the Ukrainians do defeat Russia. It's incredible to me that they seem to be doing this. Another dream is Putin possibly being mortally ill - he's not riding a horse with his shirt off these days..


----------



## Bill M




----------



## Country Lad

'Don't bother to come,' Turkey says No to Sweden and Finland NATO bids​


----------



## StockyGuy

Country Lad said:


> 'Don't bother to come,' Turkey says No to Sweden and Finland NATO bids​





Read the headline and was ready to be all down on Turkey, but then saw the demands of Turkey and they seemed fairly reasonable.


----------



## Country Lad

StockyGuy said:


> Read the headline and was ready to be all down on Turkey, but then saw the demands of Turkey and they seemed fairly reasonable.



_Ankara first raised objections__ to Finnish and Swedish membership on Friday, citing their history of hosting members of Kurdish militant groups.

The justice ministry said on Monday that over the past five years the two countries had failed to respond positively to extradition requests for 33 people Turkey says are linked to groups it deems terrorist, namely the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) and followers of Fethullah Gülen. Nato would become “a hatchery” for terrorists if the two countries joined, Erdoğan told a news conference on Monday._

Turkey says the 33 are terrorists and Sweden and Finland have always maintained they are not and have strongly refused to ever send them to Turkey. It will be interesting to see how that plays out as I doubt the 2 countries will be willing to accede to what they would likely see as blackmail.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

from ISW (footnotes are in original languages)



> *Unknown Russian perpetrators conducted a series of Molotov cocktail attacks on Russian military commissariats throughout the country in May, likely in protest of covert mobilization. *




Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements—Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—between May 4 and May 18.[5] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week.[6] Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.[7]


----------



## Dona Ferentes

War is terrible. Sometimes art surmounts it









						Ukrainian soldier's photos capture life inside besieged Azovstal steel plant
					

Photographer and Ukranian soldier Dmytro Kozatsky was inside the Azovstal steel plant during the intense battle for Mariupol. These are the pictures he took before being captured by Russian forces.




					www.abc.net.au
				










[Now held by the Russians,] Mr Kozatsky's last messages on Twitter were posted on Friday morning.



> "Well, that's all. Thank you from the shelters of Azovstal — the place of my death and my life," he wrote.



He posted a link to his photos, for downloading "while I am in captivity".

"Send them to all journalistic awards and photo contests," he said.


----------



## Dona Ferentes




----------



## Dona Ferentes

Ukraine anger as Macron says '_Don't humiliate Russia_'​
The French aren't even at war and already surrendering!


----------



## waterbottle

Dona Ferentes said:


> Ukraine anger as Macron says '_Don't humiliate Russia_'​
> The French aren't even at war and already surrendering!



There's some truth to it. Why would you want to back Putin into a corner?


----------



## againsthegrain

Dona Ferentes said:


> Ukraine anger as Macron says '_Don't humiliate Russia_'​
> The French aren't even at war and already surrendering!




Always been like that and probably will be.  Western Europe never wanted to get their hands dirty while the East fight for Europa.

Mongols, Ottomans... all the dirtiest and bloodiest battles were fought on the east by the real defenders of Europe


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

My contacts in Eastern Ukraine are telling me via Telegram that Russian artillery are just firing at will and getting the hell further east once they've used up their munition to satisfy their Commanders. 

They are even using Russian TOS-1 thermobaric MLRS at ranges of 1 km and then retreating. A sure way of Ukraine getting some expensive gear or destroying same gear.

Panic amongst the Russians. 

gg


----------



## againsthegrain

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My contacts in Eastern Ukraine are telling me via Telegram that Russian artillery are just firing at will and getting the hell further east once they've used up their munition to satisfy their Commanders.
> 
> They are even using Russian TOS-1 thermobaric MLRS at ranges of 1 km and then retreating. A sure way of Ukraine getting some expensive gear or destroying same gear.
> 
> Panic amongst the Russians.
> 
> gg




If and when the Ukrianians get the promised HIMARS they will be able to light up Russian artillery at will. The ass kicking will start


----------



## sptrawler

againsthegrain said:


> HIMARS



The big issue for the U.S, is weapons technology being captured, they wont donate anything that could give Russia intellectual property that they don't already have IMO.


----------



## Telamelo

againsthegrain said:


> If and when the Ukrianians get the promised HIMARS they will be able to light up Russian artillery at will. The ass kicking will start



That's when Putin will unleash nuclear weapons. Russia warned a couple of week's ago that it would sink England (if necessary).


----------



## againsthegrain

Telamelo said:


> That's when Putin will unleash nuclear weapons. Russia warned a couple of week's ago that it would sink England (if necessary).




Think the fine line is, if Ukrainians will strike Russian land over the border then yes it gets very hot. From my little research into this USA made it part of the deal to only strike targets within the borders of Ukraine against the aggressor.  Perhaps why Biden has back flipped twice now on this deal. This is why I said If and when,  not too sure if it goes ahead


----------



## JohnDe

Telamelo said:


> That's when Putin will unleash nuclear weapons. Russia warned a couple of week's ago that it would sink England (if necessary).



Putin also thought that Ukraine would fall in a few days. That was 102 days ago


----------



## sptrawler

Telamelo said:


> That's when Putin will unleash nuclear weapons. Russia warned a couple of week's ago that it would sink England (if necessary).



If you believe that, you believe in Santa Claus.


----------



## Telamelo

sptrawler said:


> If you believe that, you believe in Santa Claus.



Fair enough mate as noted your reply on calendar to re-visit later. 

One thing is for sure, if Putin resorts to/uses nuclear weapons - then there'll be no more Santa Claus for anyone lol


----------



## sptrawler

Telamelo said:


> Fair enough mate as noted your reply on calendar to re-visit later.
> 
> One thing is for sure, if Putin resorts to/uses nuclear weapons - then there'll be no more Santa Claus for anyone lol



The thing is Putin is one person, Russia isn't the only one with nuclear weapons.
Let's put it another way, what if Scott Morrison said right lets start a nuclear war?


----------



## Country Lad

Telamelo said:


> That's when Putin will unleash nuclear weapons. Russia warned a couple of week's ago that it would sink England (if necessary).



I am fairly sure that Putin realises that if he strikes with one nuclear device he crosses the line and  the west will retaliate, if only because they feel he may be deranged enough to fire more. Let's face it, they have the capability to return Russia to the stone age.


----------



## Telamelo

Country Lad said:


> I am fairly sure that Putin realises that if he strikes with one nuclear device he crosses the line and  the west will retaliate, if only because they feel he may be deranged enough to fire more. Let's face it, they have the capability to return Russia to the stone age.



Well Biden won't step in/get the US directly involved in Europe's mess if it escalates to nuclear (can assure you of that). 

The US will stand back & allow Europe to capitulate to Putin/Russia as won't directly intervene or come to their aid - unless it's selling weaponry arsenal to them as is the case now.

Biden is well aware that a direct confrontation with Putin may result in Russian subs hidden of the coast of the USA targeting American cities directly with devastating consequences.


----------



## Telamelo

sptrawler said:


> The thing is Putin is one person, Russia isn't the only one with nuclear weapons.
> Let's put it another way, what if Scott Morrison said right lets start a nuclear war?



Well Dutton told us a while back (before the election) suggesting/pre-empting that we were already at war.


----------



## qldfrog

Telamelo said:


> Well Biden won't step in/get the US directly involved in Europe's mess if it escalates to nuclear (can assure you of that).
> 
> The US will stand back & allow Europe to capitulate to Putin/Russia as won't directly intervene or come to their aid - unless it's selling weaponry arsenal to them as is the case now.
> 
> Biden is well aware that a direct confrontation with Putin may result in Russian subs hidden of the coast of the USA targeting American cities directly with devastating consequences.



But Biden could provoke tactical nukes, a ruined Europe, with ashes in London Berlin Paris and a wiped out Russia is a wet dream for him..and probably for Turkey and Poland which would fill the void.
And what a great market to rebuild.FMG would go balistic and we would have found an exit from the gfc can kicking


----------



## sptrawler

Telamelo said:


> Well Dutton told us a while back (before the election) suggesting/pre-empting that we were already at war.



Well all I can say is, I hope you don't wet the bed tonight.


----------



## Telamelo

I


qldfrog said:


> But Biden could provoke tactical nukes, a ruined Europe, with ashes in London Berlin Paris and a wiped out Russia is a wet dream for him..and probably for Turkey and Poland which would fill the void.
> And what a great market to rebuild.FMG would go balistic and we would have found an exit from the gfc can kicking



I agree.. a weakened Europe is considered a win for Biden's agenda.


----------



## sptrawler

qldfrog said:


> But Biden could provoke tactical nukes, a ruined Europe, with ashes in London Berlin Paris and a wiped out Russia is a wet dream for him..and probably for Turkey and Poland which would fill the void.
> And what a great market to rebuild.FMG would go balistic and we would have found an exit from the gfc can kicking



Mate you need to get some sleep, you never know when you will need to be well rested.


----------



## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> Mate you need to get some sleep, you never know when you will need to be well rested.



We talk about that post in 6 months...


----------



## Telamelo

Russia hit Kyiv with cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea on Sunday, striking the Ukrainian capital in the first such attack for weeks, as Vladimir Putin warned that any Western deliveries of longer-range rocket systems would prompt Moscow to hit “objects that we haven’t yet struck”.


----------



## Sean K

I'm not sure what international law they're breaking with this, but I'm sure it fits some criteria.







During heated exchanges at the UN Security Council, Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, addressed Moscow’s envoy directly: “Mr Ambassador of the Russian Federation, let’s be honest, the Kremlin is using food supplies as a stealth missile against developing countries.

“The dramatic consequences of Russia’s war are spilling over across the globe, and this is driving up food prices, pushing people into poverty, and destabilising entire regions. Russia is solely responsible for this food crisis.”

Vassily Nebenzia, the Russian ambassador, accused Michel of spreading lies and left the meeting.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of stealing grain worth S100 million from occupied territory and orchestrating a food crisis to pressure the West. Ukraine and Russia jointly account for a quarter of the global supply of wheat. Prices have soared since the invasion in February, when Russia blockaded Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

Russia has been dangling a guarantee to allow Ukrainian grain safe passage if the country’s military removes mines from its ports. Kyiv, however, fears that the Kremlin would then launch attacks from the sea. Russia and Turkey, which controls access to the Black Sea, are holding talks in Ankara on how to restart exports. Under the proposals, Turkish ships would help de-mine the waters off Odesa and guarantee safe passage for Ukrainian cargo vessels through the Bosphorus.

Kyiv has not been invited to the talks while the Kremlin has demanded sanctions relief in return for easing the blockade, which British officials have described as blackmail. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said that Moscow could use such an opening to launch an amphibious invasion.


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> I'm not sure what international law they're breaking with this, but I'm sure it fits some criteria.



It matters little as to what International law they are breaking when they really don't recognize "international Law".
Similar to the Chinese  and their claims to the South China Sea,  their tariffs and sanctions against Australia and other countries with whom they have disagreements.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> It matters little as to what International law they are breaking when they really don't recognize "international Law".
> Similar to the Chinese  and their claims to the South China Sea,  their tariffs and sanctions against Australia and other countries with whom they have disagreements.
> Mick




Yes, makes a bit of a mockery of IHL, Geneva Conventions, etc when a member of the UNSC P5 does this. Although, the US and GB (and us) invaded Iraq under dodgy pretences too. Really need to change the P5 to P7 or 9 and a majority vote for sanctions or even military intervention under the Responsibility to Protect commitment. Although, that could just lead to the World formally dividing on the vote and you create two clear blocks ready to go to war.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

UAF Commander: 

Active hostilities ongoing across* 1,105 *kilometers of frontline.
According to the chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, the frontlines constitute* 2,450* kilometers in total.


----------



## Sean K

This is a bit of a worry. There's going to be a 'red line' to sanctions against Russia and stopping access to Kaliningrad might be it.


----------



## JohnDe

Sean K said:


> This is a bit of a worry. There's going to be a 'red line' to sanctions against Russia and stopping access to Kaliningrad might be it.
> 
> View attachment 143137




Yes, that is a worry. Russia is going for broke, they believe that no nation will risk an all out nuclear war with them.

_The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea is sandwiched between Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east._​​_Annexed from Germany in 1945, the territory was a closed military zone throughout the Soviet period._​​_In 2013, Russia deployed short-range Iskander ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the region, in what it said was a response to US plans to deploy a ballistic missile defence system in Europe._​​_








						Kaliningrad profile - Overview
					

Provides an overview, basic facts and key events for this Russian exclave



					www.bbc.com
				



_​


----------



## Sean K

JohnDe said:


> Yes, that is a worry. Russia is going for broke, they believe that no nation will risk an all out nuclear war with them.
> 
> _The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea is sandwiched between Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east._​​_Annexed from Germany in 1945, the territory was a closed military zone throughout the Soviet period._​​_In 2013, Russia deployed short-range Iskander ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the region, in what it said was a response to US plans to deploy a ballistic missile defence system in Europe._​​_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kaliningrad profile - Overview
> 
> 
> Provides an overview, basic facts and key events for this Russian exclave
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _​




Lithuania are claiming they're just implementing EU sanctions, so this action must have been cleared by the EU and NATO. If Russia moves to occupy that gap to ensure access to Kaliningrad that cuts off the Baltic States land access to Poland and would be considered an attack on either Lithuania or Poland. NATO would have to respond.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Lithuania are claiming they're just implementing EU sanctions, so this action must have been cleared by the EU and NATO. If Russia moves to occupy that gap to ensure access to Kaliningrad that cuts off the Baltic States land access to Poland and would be considered an attack on either Lithuania or Poland. NATO would have to respond.



And on the other end,if NATO blockades that area, Russia has no choice but intervene....
Seems clear that NATO aka the US does not even  try to stop escalation..
I am sure we will have comments like we should not negotiate with devil etc etc..mostly by keyboard warriors but we always have to find peace or at least status quo otherwise straight to WWIII....


----------



## Dona Ferentes

return to sender


----------



## Telamelo

qldfrog said:


> And on the other end,if NATO blockades that area, Russia has no choice but intervene....
> Seems clear that NATO aka the US does not even  try to stop escalation..
> I am sure we will have comments like we should not negotiate with devil etc etc..mostly by keyboard warriors but we always have to find peace or at least status quo otherwise straight to WWIII....



Hadn't realised this thread covered recent developments surrounding Kaliningrad (as I'd mentioned this on another thread "potential WW3 threat").

I feel that Kaliningrad will unfortunately be the trigger point to escalation/nuclear threat/warfare as can't see the EU/NATO/US backing off. 

If anything, further provocation/sanctions/restrictions will force Putin to play his "deadly nuclear hand" with devastating consequences for Europe imo (as suspect Putin going to lose his patience soon).


----------



## Telamelo

https://www.news.com.au/world/russia-warns-nato-member-lithuania-of-serious-consequences-if-it-doesnt-lift-blockade-of-kaliningrad/news-story/fabcb6022d99e799a395a5fc5404a003
		




			https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-announces-chilling-nuclear-threat-amid-growing-tensions/news-story/bac0df041c9b7d5434300d96d3516e35


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> And on the other end,if NATO blockades that area, Russia has no choice but intervene....
> Seems clear that NATO aka the US does not even  try to stop escalation..
> I am sure we will have comments like we should not negotiate with devil etc etc..mostly by keyboard warriors but we always have to find peace or at least status quo otherwise straight to WWIII....




So, you are still claiming the West caused Russia to invade a nation state? 

(from my keyboard  )


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> So, you are still claiming the West caused Russia to invade a nation state?
> 
> (from my keyboard  )



definitively, the US started the process under Obama with the whole Biden's son saga and put Russia back to the wall.
Nothing like that would have happened under Trump but the democrats and lobbies got into power..I do not say elected... and were back to their initial plan (remember Russia/Clinton relations?)

Putin f.up majestically as he was expecting to be welcomed as a liberator....
But the US was ready..A PR puppet was in place (trained actor)
Putin just forgot most of the pro Russians had already moved to the Russian sided Crimea/Dosnek... and now the war..which was initially a civil war  had moved up one level...a bit like Yugoslavia in its time if you remember?
We bombed Serbia to let Kosovo turn into a muslim terrorist training ground, Putin thought he could do similar and push out the pro west Ukrainians over.
this is becoming history and is the start of WWIII (cold or hot, the US will decide probably within months) ..nicely timed with the way to get out of an economic deadend.
That's my view.
I have no certitude except truth is definitively not what our own propaganda pushes on us.
Neither is it Kremlin's story we can agree there too;And getting hard to get unbiased views.
If you see otherwise, how do you interpret the cuban crisis?Was Kennedy wrong? I do not think so

There is always a line in the sand not to push..even between friends, Nato did push it , was no friend  and got the expected push back. Simple
In the meantime, for this political game, people are dying, atrocities are rampant..on both sides
And absolutely deluded Europe is paying the price but Poland andTurkey are gaining power, even the US a bit...while China is laughing all the way to its cash register.
As for ukraine as a nation state..hum..as good as south sudan in term of legitimity, the poorest place in europe well below Romania and was getting worse and worse even before the war=> 3 times poorer than Russia per citizen..says it all..., overthrown of elected governments, worst corruption in Europe which made EU membership impossible...pre war..but now all good  .Provider of sex slaves and human traficking, and soon exporter of US military weapons to the world mafia, key importer of stolen European goods and luxury German cars .
A delight..but the inhabitants did not deserved to be slaughtered from both sides to fulfill the US puppet handlers wishes.
Just waiting for the first tactical nuke next..God bless us..the horrors to come...


----------



## qldfrog

PS: as I did not want to join the keyboard warrior brigade, i had put that thread on ignore a while back but I guess it switched back on or i typed it back in?..I will reinstate the ignore, not denying you a reply Sean, so my apologies not personal, but a bit like Covid jabs, no point preaching if people have made their mind 
have a great week end..


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> definitively, the US started the process under Obama with the whole Biden's son saga and put Russia back to the wall.
> Nothing like that would have happened under Trump but the democrats and lobbies got into power..I do not say elected... and were back to their initial plan (remember Russia/Clinton relations?)
> 
> Putin f.up majestically as he was expecting to be welcomed as a liberator....
> But the US was ready..A PR puppet was in place (trained actor)
> Putin just forgot most of the pro Russians had already moved to the Russian sided Crimea/Dosnek... and now the war..which was initially a civil war  had moved up one level...a bit like Yugoslavia in its time if you remember?
> We bombed Serbia to let Kosovo turn into a muslim terrorist training ground, Putin thought he could do similar and push out the pro west Ukrainians over.
> this is becoming history and is the start of WWIII (cold or hot, the US will decide probably within months) ..nicely timed with the way to get out of an economic deadend.
> That's my view.
> I have no certitude except truth is definitively not what our own propaganda pushes on us.
> Neither is it Kremlin's story we can agree there too;And getting hard to get unbiased views.
> If you see otherwise, how do you interpret the cuban crisis?Was Kennedy wrong? I do not think so
> 
> There is always a line in the sand not to push..even between friends, Nato did push it , was no friend  and got the expected push back. Simple
> In the meantime, for this political game, people are dying, atrocities are rampant..on both sides
> And absolutely deluded Europe is paying the price but Poland andTurkey are gaining power, even the US a bit...while China is laughing all the way to its cash register.
> As for ukraine as a nation state..hum..as good as south sudan in term of legitimity, the poorest place in europe well below Romania and was getting worse and worse even before the war=> 3 times poorer than Russia per citizen..says it all..., overthrown of elected governments, worst corruption in Europe which made EU membership impossible...pre war..but now all good  .Provider of sex slaves and human traficking, and soon exporter of US military weapons to the world mafia, key importer of stolen European goods and luxury German cars .
> A delight..but the inhabitants did not deserved to be slaughtered from both sides to fulfill the US puppet handlers wishes.
> Just waiting for the first tactical nuke next..God bless us..the horrors to come...




It will take me a while to sort through this, but I will over the weekend.


----------



## Telamelo

Ukraine war follows decades of warnings that NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could provoke Russia
					

Lost in the outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the fact that many in the West have long warned that widespread NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could spark just such a conflict.




					theconversation.com
				












						Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored | Ted Galen Carpenter
					

It has long been clear that Nato expansion would lead to tragedy. We are now paying the price for the US’s arrogance




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Telamelo

qldfrog said:


> PS: as I did not want to join the keyboard warrior brigade, i had put that thread on ignore a while back but I guess it switched back on or i typed it back in?..I will reinstate the ignore, not denying you a reply Sean, so my apologies not personal, but a bit like Covid jabs, no point preaching if people have made their mind
> have a great week end..



Suggest no need to put anyone on ignore (kind of rude to do so imo) as everyone is entitled to their opinion & to express it on a public forum such as ASF - differing views should be encouraged & discussed in a respectful/peaceful orderly manner as it adds to the substance/quality of the overall discussion.


----------



## qldfrog

Telamelo said:


> Suggest no need to put anyone on ignore (kind of rude to do so imo) as everyone is entitled to their opinion & to express it on a public forum such as ASF - differing views should be encouraged & discussed in a respectful/peaceful orderly manner as it adds to the substance/quality of the overall discussion.



No, i put people on ignore wo remorse but not on this subject and Sean is not on my ignore
The whole thread was on ignore .still is actually : i checked yesterday so not sure how i even managed to type in?
But i do not want to ping pong on this subject.
Covid jab/Covid was directly putting my life at risk, Ukraine does not directly  even if my family left in Europe could find itself wiped out so not exactly unaffected.


----------



## Telamelo

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/close-ally-calls-on-vladimir-putin-to-strike-london-first-in-wwii-on-russian-media/news-story/b4025f801f9966ffa35e3595aaf79553


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> It will take me a while to sort through this, but I will over the weekend.



Please do for your own interest but i will try to avoid this thread.
Please read my above post cf ignore of the thread..not trying to dismiss you etc.
I was carefully checking this area previously because: 
I am western European,my home town was 30km from aa major nuke airforce base and i spent my youth séeing Mirage plane with a A-Bomb under ,breaking the sound barrier above my house so deeply aware from young age of the Warsaw pact thread.
Visited Hungary,met with Polish people before/post wall collapse and crossed twice the iron curtain .
I was still in Europe when the wall fell.
Lastly,just before Trump election, i did a  tourist trip to St Petersburg,train..ing from Helsinki.
St Petersburg being in my opinion the most beautiful historic town on earth..visit if you...well when you... can..
Vienna, Versailles and Paris all in one spot.
Was impressed by the dynamism of Russia there, the culture still booming,no woke crap, proud of their religion,full churches,and no risk of being slaughtered in the street for being an infidelh.
At the time of the visit, Hillary was already promising to nuke Russia at every election speech and we were praying it would not happen during my stay🥴
The week after,we were back in NY and the comparison was dire.i like NY but it was tired and i got the feeling the US had lost its way..
Anyway,was not surprised by US moves when democrats were back,i had read H Kissinger . (Who knows better than us)... passages about crossing the line against Russia more than a year ago.
This is where i get my thought process from 
Add G Friedman's view on geopolitics in Europe and i can see the Poland and Turkey  play ,and it is clear to everyone that China is enjoying and benefiting greatly toi.

There was no surprise when the tanks moved in, and i do not need ABC or Fox/RT "fact checkers" to analyse this.
And now this is war and dirty, which is far too nice an euphemism, abhorrent and sickening  would be better..
Have all a great weekend but i will try to abstain from the thread


----------



## Sean K

I've watched quite a few of these on YouTube and this one provides a pretty good background to why Russia has invaded Ukraine.

(there's some crap at the end about watching his other stuff on Curiosity)


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> definitively, the US started the process under Obama with the whole Biden's son saga and put Russia back to the wall.
> Nothing like that would have happened under Trump but the democrats and lobbies got into power..I do not say elected... and were back to their initial plan (remember Russia/Clinton relations?)
> 
> Putin f.up majestically as he was expecting to be welcomed as a liberator....
> But the US was ready..A PR puppet was in place (trained actor)
> Putin just forgot most of the pro Russians had already moved to the Russian sided Crimea/Dosnek... and now the war..which was initially a civil war  had moved up one level...a bit like Yugoslavia in its time if you remember?
> We bombed Serbia to let Kosovo turn into a muslim terrorist training ground, Putin thought he could do similar and push out the pro west Ukrainians over.
> this is becoming history and is the start of WWIII (cold or hot, the US will decide probably within months) ..nicely timed with the way to get out of an economic deadend.
> That's my view.
> I have no certitude except truth is definitively not what our own propaganda pushes on us.
> Neither is it Kremlin's story we can agree there too;And getting hard to get unbiased views.
> If you see otherwise, how do you interpret the cuban crisis?Was Kennedy wrong? I do not think so
> 
> There is always a line in the sand not to push..even between friends, Nato did push it , was no friend  and got the expected push back. Simple
> In the meantime, for this political game, people are dying, atrocities are rampant..on both sides
> And absolutely deluded Europe is paying the price but Poland andTurkey are gaining power, even the US a bit...while China is laughing all the way to its cash register.
> As for ukraine as a nation state..hum..as good as south sudan in term of legitimity, the poorest place in europe well below Romania and was getting worse and worse even before the war=> 3 times poorer than Russia per citizen..says it all..., overthrown of elected governments, worst corruption in Europe which made EU membership impossible...pre war..but now all good  .Provider of sex slaves and human traficking, and soon exporter of US military weapons to the world mafia, key importer of stolen European goods and luxury German cars .
> A delight..but the inhabitants did not deserved to be slaughtered from both sides to fulfill the US puppet handlers wishes.
> Just waiting for the first tactical nuke next..God bless us..the horrors to come...




I agree about Kosovo, this was a big mistake and injustice


----------



## Sean K

I think the China-Taiwan issue is going to play out in much the same way as this war. 

There's a mixed history of ownership.
Linked Ethnicity. 
It's a strategic position controlling gateways.
Surrounded by natural resources.
Competing blocks for influence - West v East.
Competing political systems - Democracy v Dictatorship.

I think there's going to be a very similar outcome to this in East Asia.

China will eventually try to take Taiwan by force.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I think the China-Taiwan issue is going to play out in much the same way as this war.
> 
> There's a mixed history of ownership.
> Linked Ethnicity.
> It's a strategic position controlling gateways.
> Surrounded by natural resources.
> Competing blocks for influence - West v East.
> Competing political systems - Democracy v Dictatorship.
> 
> I think there's going to be a very similar outcome to this in East Asia.
> 
> China will eventually try to take Taiwan by force.



I must admit that your summary is compelling, however if I were ole Xi, this what I would do.

Continue to threaten Taiwan and develop weapons and alliances in the South China Sea and Pacific to keep the US distracted.
Allow Putin to become exhausted and Russia to be neutralised by NATO and the US.
Invade Siberia and Russian East across the Amur river and annex Siberia and the Kurils with Sakhalin Oblast.   
Eastern Russia is wasted on the Russians who are feckless and operating as they were under the Romanovs over 100 years ago. It is a feudal, sparsely populated area adjacent to Chinese northern provinces wherin vodka and thuggery is the currency as opposed to a thriving large Chinese population in what used be Manchuria. 

There is bad history going back over a thousand years between China and Russia, and China has a huge population who could exploit the riches of Eastern Russia better than has been the case under Czarist or USSR control. 

You heard it here first. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit that your summary is compelling, however if I were ole Xi, this what I would do.
> 
> Continue to threaten Taiwan and develop weapons and alliances in the South China Sea and Pacific to keep the US distracted.
> Allow Putin to become exhausted and Russia to be neutralised by NATO and the US.
> Invade Siberia and Russian East across the Amur river and annex Siberia and the Kurils with Sakhalin Oblast.
> Eastern Russia is wasted on the Russians who are feckless and operating as they were under the Romanovs over 100 years ago. It is a feudal, sparsely populated area adjacent to Chinese northern provinces wherin vodka and thuggery is the currency as opposed to a thriving large Chinese population in what used be Manchuria.
> 
> There is bad history going back over a thousand years between China and Russia, and China has a huge population who could exploit the riches of Eastern Russia better than has been the case under Czarist or USSR control.
> 
> You heard it here first.
> 
> gg




I have not read of a scenario of China taking the eastern part of Russia before, as part of their grand strategic plan. 

I heard it here first. 

SK


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> I have not read of a scenario of China taking the eastern part of Russia before, as part of their grand strategic plan.
> 
> I heard it here first.
> 
> SK



IT is quite an interesting part of the world. A quick read through the Russo-Japanese War 1905, which exhausted the Russians and led eventually to the Russian Revolution, on Wikipedia will give you a taste of the tensions in that part of the world. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Internet is full of clips of trains loaded with tanks bound for the west, drawing down the RU strategic reserve that had been held east of the Urals. And leaving the Amur / Russian Far East border more exposed.  Apart from a few cities and regional centres, most towns are bleeding population. Despair set in when the Soviet subsidies were removed.  

Take out a bridge or 3 across those broad Siberian rivers and the whole area would be vulnerable.


----------



## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> Internet is full of clips of trains loaded with tanks bound for the west, drawing down the RU strategic reserve that had been held east of the Urals. And leaving the Amur / Russian Far East border more exposed.  Apart from a few cities and regional centres, most towns are bleeding population. Despair set in when the Soviet subsidies were removed.
> 
> Take out a bridge or 3 across those broad Siberian rivers and the whole area would be vulnerable.




Maybe this is all part of Xi's grand strategic plan, or at least an opportunity. Divert Russia to the West, and the EU and US to the East, while he gets set to take Taiwan with limited opposition.

The missing link is India, who control the SLOC from the Pacific to Indian Oceans. China can't wage a major war without controlling that route. It can be shut off at a whim by India.

This is what I think is China's failure. Geography. They are trapped.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Maybe this is all part of Xi's grand strategic plan, or at least an opportunity. Divert Russia to the West, and the EU and US to the East, while he gets set to take Taiwan with limited opposition.
> 
> The missing link is India, who control the SLOC from the Pacific to Indian Oceans. China can't wage a major war without controlling that route. It can be shut off at a whim by India.
> 
> This is what I think is China's failure. Geography. They are trapped.



From China's viewpoint, there is no rush to take Taiwan. It will be taken back one day. 

China and India are the big winners atm. from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No commitment to either side, cheaper oil and gas and a world diverted from their internal "fixing" of ethnic problems. 

They can throw rocks at each other up in the Himalayas to keep the warriors happy.

When you are ahead, why change the game, just develop your bluffing abilities.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From China's viewpoint, there is no rush to take Taiwan. It will be taken back one day.
> 
> China and India are the big winners atm. from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No commitment to either side, cheaper oil and gas and a world diverted from their internal "fixing" of ethnic problems.
> 
> They can throw rocks at each other up in the Himalayas to keep the warriors happy.
> 
> When you are ahead, why change the game, just develop your bluffing abilities.
> 
> gg




Agree, China has a grand strategic plan, dated back decades.

But, Xi has put a time frame on taking Taiwan back. I think it's this decade. 

Unless he has oil and gas from Russia, it can't be accomplished and sustained. 

I think the Ukraine war has solidified the problems of globalisation, particularly with energy security.

I envisage much more self reliance, or very clear and trusted strategic logistic partners going forward, and at the moment, the dictators don't have them.  

Global energy supply is still in our hands. Just. 

Germany nearly stuffed this equation up, and winter may still put Putin and Xi in control. Trouble.


----------



## sptrawler

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From China's viewpoint, there is no rush to take Taiwan. It will be taken back one day.
> 
> China and India are the big winners atm. from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No commitment to either side, cheaper oil and gas and a world diverted from
> 
> gg



Absolutely, once the U.S has removed any perceived intellectual property from mainland Taiwan it is just another small island near China.

Same as when Australia's minerals have been removed it is just another pile of worthless dirt in the middle of nowhere.

The issue for us IMO, we think we are something special, that deserves the blessed lifestyle we have, because we are special, we're different. 

We are just fortunate enough to live here, it's a shame so many take it for granted, rather than as a blessing IMO.
When the minerals are gone, we are just a dust bowl, full of type 2 diabetes and an education system that is in a constant decline down the international ladder.
Yep Australia, you're standing in it.
I'm just struggling to understand why we see ourselves as so special, I just can't pin down what stands out at the moment, that makes us so entitled.


----------



## Smurf1976

Sean K said:


> I think the Ukraine war has solidified the problems of globalisation, particularly with energy security.



I think there's also a broader shift likely to flow from that.

One once side of that debate are a seemingly unlikely bunch of allies, that being the likes of engineers, scientists, military strategists and environmentalists, have warned of this threat for decades. Given the absolute importance of energy, having supply in the hands of others has long been seen as an unacceptable risk.

On the other side of that debate are economic and political ideologies of free trade and mutual interdependency and so on.

Suffice to say at this point it would be a brave person who argued for the latter. 

Energy is the most crucial resource since without that everything else ceases to function and does so rapidly but ultimately the same concept applies to anything. Depending on others for essential goods or services comes with a very real risk of being backed into a corner.


----------



## Value Collector

Smurf1976 said:


> I think there's also a broader shift likely to flow from that.
> 
> One once side of that debate are a seemingly unlikely bunch of allies, that being the likes of engineers, scientists, military strategists and environmentalists, have warned of this threat for decades. Given the absolute importance of energy, having supply in the hands of others has long been seen as an unacceptable risk.
> 
> On the other side of that debate are economic and political ideologies of free trade and mutual interdependency and so on.
> 
> Suffice to say at this point it would be a brave person who argued for the latter.
> 
> Energy is the most crucial resource since without that everything else ceases to function and does so rapidly but ultimately the same concept applies to anything. Depending on others for essential goods or services comes with a very real risk of being backed into a corner.



I think the long term trend towards globalisation is not going to stop, this is just an example of the two step forwards one step back way humans stumble forward.

Depending on “others” might be seen as a risk, but over time the group of people we label as “others” shrinks.

For example there would be no suggestion that free trade among the UK is totally rational, but the UK is made up of 4 countries that used to be staunch enemies, and even each of those countries is made up of fiefs and vassals that warred with each other, and before that it was broken up in even smaller tribal groups.

My point is that over time who we consider “US” is growing and “them” is shrinking, this is going to be the force that grows globalisation. But like everything it’s not always steady growth.


----------



## Knobby22

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit that your summary is compelling, however if I were ole Xi, this what I would do.
> 
> Continue to threaten Taiwan and develop weapons and alliances in the South China Sea and Pacific to keep the US distracted.
> Allow Putin to become exhausted and Russia to be neutralised by NATO and the US.
> Invade Siberia and Russian East across the Amur river and annex Siberia and the Kurils with Sakhalin Oblast.
> Eastern Russia is wasted on the Russians who are feckless and operating as they were under the Romanovs over 100 years ago. It is a feudal, sparsely populated area adjacent to Chinese northern provinces wherin vodka and thuggery is the currency as opposed to a thriving large Chinese population in what used be Manchuria.
> 
> There is bad history going back over a thousand years between China and Russia, and China has a huge population who could exploit the riches of Eastern Russia better than has been the case under Czarist or USSR control.
> 
> You heard it here first.
> 
> gg



It won't be a war. China will set it up as a mutual economic zone. Putin will have weakened Russia so much by then that Russia will have to agree.


----------



## 3 hound

As predicted...the sanctions could lead to  a new fossil fuel trade order where the West is not the dominant partner. 

Plenty of other sources with a quick google.

I thought most here would accept a BBC link.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60783874.amp


----------



## Telamelo

https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/ukraine-hunger-inflation-g7-leaders-navigate-myriad-of-crises/news-story/d7269b2cf8555a2928eb6e9dea9b4376
		




			https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-hits-new-low-with-disturbing-act/news-story/f868c574828cab5158a2c6918a627963


----------



## Telamelo

Bombshell NATO move set to enrage Russian President Vladimir Putin​


			https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/bombshell-nato-move-set-to-enrage-russian-president-vladimir-putin/news-story/5cfb4a3ff9822ccbf58ced20c6108b27


----------



## Telamelo

So EU/NATO alliance (with Turkey granting the "green light" for both Finland & Sweden to join NATO) now essentially have a close proximity "stranglehold military circle" around Russia - my guess is that Putin going to step up/activate "nuclear threat in the region" imo


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> So EU/NATO alliance (with Turkey granting the "green light" for both Finland & Sweden to join NATO) now essentially have a close proximity "stranglehold military circle" around Russia - my guess is that Putin going to step up/activate "nuclear threat in the region" imo




Yes, he's said he'd do something like that or move some launchers to Kaliningrad. This is a risky game of chicken.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> Yes, he's said he'd do something like that or move some launchers to Kaliningrad. This is a risky game of chicken.



Putin is a KGB thug, and a survivor. He has children, probably the only reason he wouldn't use even "limited" nukes.

The Western leaders and China realise this. 

He will back down. 

You heard it here first. 

gg


----------



## Telamelo

Sean K said:


> Yes, he's said he'd do something like that or move some launchers to Kaliningrad. This is a risky game of chicken.



Furthermore, just to spice thing's up/increase the tension - NATO sending 300,000 troops into Eastern EU NATO block countries as well


----------



## Telamelo

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Putin is a KGB thug, and a survivor. He has children, probably the only reason he wouldn't use even "limited" nukes.
> 
> The Western leaders and China realise this.
> 
> He will back down.
> 
> You heard it here first.
> 
> gg



Sorry GG I respectfully disagree with you re: Putin will back down 

No chance of this ever happening as it would spell/signify the end of Russia  - Putin ain't going down without a huge fight/war imo


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Telamelo said:


> Sorry GG I respectfully disagree with you re: Putin will back down
> 
> No chance of this ever happening as it would spell/signify the end of Russia  - Putin ain't going down without a huge fight/war imo



He has run out of bully rhetoric. 

Nobody believes him, even his Ch01 propaganda orcs on Russian TV.

Only way to deal with a bully is confront and destroy him. 

Even the Western Alliance, sooks that they are, now realise this. 

gg


----------



## JohnDe

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Putin is a KGB thug, and a survivor. He has children, probably the only reason he wouldn't use even "limited" nukes.
> 
> The Western leaders and China realise this.
> 
> He will back down.
> 
> You heard it here first.
> 
> gg




Agreed. There would have been some behind the scenes discussions with Russian military and diplomats - 'if you use nuclear weapons the retaliation will be like for like on all Russian hierarchy, assets and family.'


----------



## 3 hound

Something kicks off with China in Taiwan or pacific while NATO are massing against Russia and we are in WWIII.


----------



## Telamelo

Russia gets caught in a messy financial web woven by the West​








						Russia gets caught in a messy financial web woven by the West
					

Russia has been forced into a default on its foreign debts. But it’s not because of its inability or unwillingness to pay them.




					www.theage.com.au


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Telamelo said:


> So EU/NATO alliance (with Turkey granting the "green light" for both Finland & Sweden to join NATO) now essentially have a close proximity "stranglehold military circle" around Russia - my guess is that Putin going to step up/activate "nuclear threat in the region" imo



let's put in terms you might understand. A bully in the playground takes your cricket bat, so other kids gather around and help you get it back.


----------



## Telamelo

Dona Ferentes said:


> let's put in terms you might understand. A bully in the playground takes your cricket bat, so other kids gather around and help you get it back.



I know too well what a bully is lol The world, politics & work are full of bullies.


----------



## 3 hound

Dona Ferentes said:


> let's put in terms you might understand. A bully in the playground takes your cricket bat, so other kids gather around and help you get it back.




Have you ever stopped to consider that most of the world's population would have reason to consider the West as the world's bully.

That may come as a shock to you as it would take a moment of self reflection.


----------



## 3 hound




----------



## againsthegrain

3 hound said:


> Have you ever stopped to consider that most of the world's population would have reason to consider the West as the world's bully.
> 
> That may come as a shock to you as it would take a moment of self reflection.




ah the self hating from the youtube education generation. If the west is so bad why are you still here?  plenty of 3rd world heavens waiting with open arms and offering a better life


----------



## Dona Ferentes

3 hound said:


> Have you ever stopped to consider that most of the world's population would have reason to consider the West as the world's bully.



_Most of the world's population?_.... The ones in trucks on the Mexico/ US border, those in boats crossing the Med, the 200K that went out of Russia in the week after 24 Feb. Don't notice much flow the other way. Maybe Snowden is a hero, or Assange?


----------



## 3 hound

againsthegrain said:


> ah the self hating from the youtube education generation. If the west is so bad why are you still here?  plenty of 3rd world heavens waiting with open arms and offering a better life




Low IQ response to be honest.

Do you believe in this war enough to go fight in it or you do you just want to see what market opportunities it creates?


----------



## 3 hound

Dona Ferentes said:


> _Most of the world's population?_.... The ones in trucks on the Mexico/ US border, those in boats crossing the Med, the 200K that went out of Russia in the week after 24 Feb. Don't notice much flow the other way. Maybe Snowden is a hero, or Assange?




You have to deny a lot of foreign policy over a long period of time in order to make that false equivalence.


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> ah the self hating from the youtube education generation. If the west is so bad why are you still here?  plenty of 3rd world heavens waiting with open arms and offering a better life



Please read again as you are not the youtube generation or are you?
:"Most of the world's population would have reason to consider the West as the world's bully."
In no way does that phrase says that we(@3 hound  here) consider ourself bully ..but ask the muslim world,with  300milions of them just a few kms from our northern frontier, the hundreds of millions in Pakistan and bangladesh, maybe even India..not to mention the 1.5 billions of chineses.
There are 1/2 millions migrants to France a year most of them hating the west yet very happy to enjoy the western advantages.
Do not expect these countries to support the US, and now the woke celebrated leftists taking over the whole of governments south of the Rio Grande hate the US..yet queue to cross the Trump wall
To not mistake your enemies, do not shot the messengers


----------



## againsthegrain

3 hound said:


> Low IQ response to be honest.
> 
> Do you believe in this war enough to go fight in it or you do you just want to see what market opportunities it creates?




Not sure what it has to do with IQ but perhaps you feel threatened?

I find it quiet hypocritical that you will always bash the millenials and all the lazy on the dole who don't want to work hard rah rah
Yet you could relate to that in the global analogy.

The West is so bad and so horrible for being the evil capitalists that take advantage of everybody around. Yet "most" of the world all want to come and live in the west.

Look at Australia look at the USA we built those countries in a few 100 years to be what they are. Hard work, unity and structure.

Should we feel bad that other countries and cultures didn't have that drive?  Yes to a certain degree the Anglo-Saxons did exploit alot of other countries and resources but they still haven't moved forward given the opportunities and chances.

Everybody has the right to live how they want to, some like to live in cities work and build.. others take a different path. 

You say West is so bad and corrupt, look at most of South Asia and their cast systems. You are born into the wrong cast and your life is written for you.  Don't get started on corruption too, much more and worst places then the West.

Yeah I was born In East Europe,  the thought has crossed my mind if war spills over to the country where I came from before I became Aussie to go fight. I have dual passports, but having 2 kids makes it alot harder, otherwise I might be there.


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> Please read again as you are not the youtube generation or are you?
> :"Most of the world's population would have reason to consider the West as the world's bully."
> In no way does that phrase says that we(@3 hound  here) consider ourself bully ..but ask the muslim world,with  300milions of them just a few kms from our northern frontier, the hundreds of millions in Pakistan and bangladesh, maybe even India..not to mention the 1.5 billions of chineses.
> There are 1/2 millions migrants to France a year most of them hating the west yet very happy to enjoy the western advantages.
> Do not expect these countries to support the US, and now the woke celebrated leftists taking over the whole of governments south of the Rio Grande hate the US..yet queue to cross the Trump wall
> To not mistake your enemies, do not shot the messengers




Yeah I understand your dissatisfaction with the woke movement and lefties and I am in the same boat here. 
However I don't really see Russia or China as a better alternative or the good guys.
To me they are all the same,  but for the sake of being angry and upset at the direction our governments are heading there is no way I can see Russia or China as the good guys.  Have some first hand experience with Russia, more the Russian politics and those that blindly follow them.  Russian culture and people are very good,  just don't talk politics


----------



## 3 hound

againsthegrain said:


> Not sure what it has to do with IQ but perhaps you feel threatened?
> 
> I find it quiet hypocritical that you will always bash the millenials and all the lazy on the dole who don't want to work hard rah rah
> Yet you could relate to that in the global analogy.
> 
> The West is so bad and so horrible for being the evil capitalists that take advantage of everybody around. Yet "most" of the world all want to come and live in the west.
> 
> Look at Australia look at the USA we built those countries in a few 100 years to be what they are. Hard work, unity and structure.
> 
> Should we feel bad that other countries and cultures didn't have that drive?  Yes to a certain degree the Anglo-Saxons did exploit alot of other countries and resources but they still haven't moved forward given the opportunities and chances.
> 
> Everybody has the right to live how they want to, some like to live in cities work and build.. others take a different path.
> 
> You say West is so bad and corrupt, look at most of South Asia and their cast systems. You are born into the wrong cast and your life is written for you.  Don't get started on corruption too, much more and worst places then the West.
> 
> Yeah I was born In East Europe,  the thought has crossed my mind if war spills over to the country where I came from before I became Aussie to go fight. I have dual passports, but having 2 kids makes it alot harder, otherwise I might be there.




Are you replying to my post because nothing you said makes any sense or follows from anything I said WTF???


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> Yeah I understand your dissatisfaction with the woke movement and lefties and I am in the same boat here.
> However I don't really see Russia or China as a better alternative or the good guys.
> To me they are all the same,  but for the sake of being angry and upset at the direction our governments are heading there is no way I can see Russia or China as the good guys.  Have some first hand experience with Russia, more the Russian politics and those that blindly follow them.  Russian culture and people are very good,  just don't talk politics



I believe @3 hound ..and i would join him if it is his attempt, want people here in the west to realise that most probably a majority of humans on this earth either hate our guts or just do not see us as a model, and would be happy to see us collapse..not that they would not like to partake on the advantages as you pointed.
I do not especially like the Chinese or Russian gov...i lived 3y in China and visited Russia. Fully not keen on China, but i think i would prefer Russia to some of our woke European governments crying about the invasion of ukraine by Russia..cultural brothers but do not mind letting in millions of mostly young uneducated illegal muslim men flooding the country with abysmal assaults and rape figures as a consequence.
That does not happen in Russia.
Putin or not, i still see Russia as the last hope for European culture..so my partiality


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> I believe @3 hound ..and i would join him if it is his attempt, want people here in the west to realise that most probably a majority of humans on this earth either hate our guts or just do not see us as a model, and would be happy to see us collapse..not that they would not like to partake on the advantages as you pointed.
> I do not especially like the Chinese or Russian gov...i lived 3y in China and visited Russia. Fully not keen on China, but i think i would prefer Russia to some of our woke European governments crying about the invasion of ukraine by Russia..cultural brothers but do not mind letting in millions of mostly young uneducated illegal muslim men flooding the country with abysmal assaults and rape figures as a consequence.
> That does not happen in Russia.
> Putin or not, i still see Russia as the last hope for European culture..so my partiality




I mostly agree with your statement, however the Russian strong image doesn't want to make it loud but there is many tajiks dagestanis, chechens and other southerner non slavic muslins in Russia creating similar issues as in the west.  At least in Russia they are alot more tough on it but the wokeness is filtrating there too.

Also putin unleashing Chechen and other poor young kids from the Caucasus to rape and pillage the "cultural brothers" is a hypocrisy to it.  In the end its the same the big guys always take by force.. thats life


----------



## Dona Ferentes

@againsthegrain  , I assume you are replying to someone that has me on block/ Ignore. _I am blessed._


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> @againsthegrain  , I assume you are replying to someone that has me on block/ Ignore. _I am blessed._



I'm in the same boat. 

Good on whoever wins whatever argument. 

Yours,

Confused.

gg


----------



## Smurf1976

againsthegrain said:


> ah the self hating from the youtube education generation. If the west is so bad why are you still here? plenty of 3rd world heavens waiting with open arms and offering a better life



There's a difference between understanding the true nature of a situation and deciding what response to take.

In any situation where a bully is involved, you've really got three options:

1. Completely destroy them.

2. Suffer their ongoing bullying.

3. Join with them.

For an individual up against a government the first option generally isn't achievable which leaves suffer or join as the available options. That someone chooses to join doesn't necessarily mean they agree, it's just a less bad option personally when compared to suffering.


----------



## Telamelo

*Excerpt below from "The Insider" newsletter 

In some scenarios, the side least likely to use nuclear weapons actually launches the first strike because they expect the other side to do so imminently. 

The War in Ukraine has been on an escalatory path since the beginning. The US and EU retaliated against the Russia invasion with extreme financial sanctions, sophisticated weapons shipments, shared intelligence, financial resources, and more. Russia has retaliated with reductions in natural gas shipments, diversion of oil from Europe to Asia, limits on grain exports, and other tactics.

A part of Russia called Kaliningrad is located on the Baltic Sea but is cut off from the rest of Russia by Lithuania, which is a member of NATO and the EU. Lithuania has now imposed a ban on sanctioned items moving across its territory to supply Kaliningrad.

Russia will find ways to supply Kaliningrad, probably by sea from St. Petersburg. 

Then Russia will retaliate against Lithuania and the EU with cyberwarfare and other forms of economic sabotage. The point is that the escalation continues.

And every day brings the world closer to nuclear war. 

Not one person in a position of Western leadership seems to be paying attention.

The economic sanctions war against Russia has been going on as long as the war in Ukraine. The US and EU have taken the lead in imposing sanctions, but US allies including Canada, the UK, Australia, and Japan have been just as aggressive.

Interestingly, a lot of large developing economies have maintained a neutral status and have not gone along with sanctions, including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, China, and Turkey.

The sanctions have been a failure. It’s true that Russian growth has gone mildly negative, but it now seems to be recovering. The Russian ruble took a tumble immediately after the invasion but has since bounced back and is now stronger against the US dollar than it was before the invasion. Russian oil and natural gas revenues are up because of higher prices and because lost sales to Europe have easily been replaced with sales to new customers in Asia.

The West has suffered more from its own sanctions than Russia in the form of inflation, supply chain disruptions, and shortages of strategic metals, fertiliser, grain, and other critical Russian exports.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Telamelo said:


> In some scenarios, the side least likely to use nuclear weapons actually launches the first strike because they expect the other side to do so imminently..



You lost me at the first para.


----------



## againsthegrain

Speaking of escalations, Ukrainians have been given the himars


----------



## Telamelo

Dona Ferentes said:


> You lost me at the first para.



In other words.. in war sometimes the side least likely to strike first with say a nuclear attack might otherwise do so first if the perceived threat from their opponent is heightened/imminent.

P.S. Wouldn't be surprised if NATO pulls the trigger first & launches a nuclear strike at Russia  (if they perceive/believe Putin is about to do so)


----------



## Dona Ferentes

less likely?


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> P.S. Wouldn't be surprised if NATO pulls the trigger first & launches a nuclear strike at Russia  (if they perceive/believe Putin is about to do so)




There is a minuscule chance that a nuclear weapon might be used here, and only when one side is backed into a corner they can not get out of. It’s a tool of very last resort. At the moment, it looks like Vlad is being pushed into a corner. Some punters think China might jump in to change the balance, but I think China might want to see Russia fail for their own grand strategic ambitions.


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> Speaking of escalations, Ukrainians have been given the himars




anyone just noticed how that main picture before clicking play is photo-shopped and is a duplicate of a single firing unit??look at the flag smoke etc
Propaganda..again and again..I try to get both extremes to guess estimate the middle /truh?...shopping mall destroyed to match G7 summit,..but empty parkings,  etc etc...Are people still swallowing any of these daily BS?
But the escalation remains and I really believe people are vastly underestimating the nuke possibility.
A damaged Europe would be an option to get out of crisis for the US:
force the USD back as #1, allow use of emergency power and seizure BTC/gold, marshall plan v2 for europe so economic boost, qualified workforce selective migration..and 2 key competitors destroyed Russia for military and EU for economic.
I would genuinely not be surprised


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> There is a minuscule chance that a nuclear weapon might be used here, and only when one side is backed into a corner they can not get out of. It’s a tool of very last resort. At the moment, it looks like Vlad is being pushed into a corner. Some punters think China might jump in to change the balance, but I think China might want to see Russia fail for their own grand strategic ambitions.



not fail, but suffer and become dependent:
 China will not allow Russia to lose if they can , as this would be a very bad first example for all the asian countries who could become the next Ukraine..
Whereas if Ukraine loses, well, Taiwaneses will know from the start where it will ends, as will Vietnamese, Korean, etc etc..
and Australians....
even if we are nowhere near as numerous as any of the above (but Taiwan which is similar to us)


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> At the moment, it looks like Vlad is being pushed into a corner.



Whereas I see the current situation really getting out of hands for Ukraine this month: You should widen your data feed @Sean K  
->as i see it the whole dombass /south has fallen and Ukrainian (real) troops slaughtered with Odessa next in line soon.
Maybe a chance for peace as basically the Russian target seems now acquired but sadly for ukrainians ..and the world, the puppet (khaki Steve Job Tee Shirt) will fight to the latest Ukrainian alive.
I have to say the PR for Ukraine is bloody sophisticated and stunningly good(see above).
Ukraine definitively won that one..even if i somewhat doubt we can experience the other side .
Before heading to bed, I think we should have a thought for the thousands being bombarded, shot now as we exchange emoticons etc.
Both side, military or civilians. 
War is evil, there is no good and bad, just a victorious side rewriting history at the end with an eraser and a highlighter


----------



## Telamelo

qldfrog said:


> Whereas I see the current situation really getting out of hands for Ukraine this month: You should widen your data feed @Sean K
> ->as i see it the whole dombass /south has fallen and Ukrainian (real) troops slaughtered with Odessa next in line soon.
> Maybe a chance for peace as basically the Russian target seems now acquired but sadly for ukrainians ..and the world, the puppet (khaki Steve Job Tee Shirt) will fight to the latest Ukrainian alive.
> I have to say the PR for Ukraine is bloody sophisticated and stunningly good(see above).
> Ukraine definitively won that one..even if i somewhat doubt we can experience the other side .
> Before heading to bed, I think we should have a thought for the thousands being bombarded, shot now as we exchange emoticons etc.
> Both side, military or civilians.
> War is evil, there is no good and bad, just a victorious side rewriting history at the end with an eraser and a highlighter



RE: "War is evil, there is no good and bad"

.. so bloody true!


----------



## divs4ever

WE'RE IN BIG TROUBLE... (AND IT'S ABOUT TO ESCALATE)



a bit of a push wearing the camo jacket in mid ( UK ) summer , but yes we have been in trouble for a while


----------



## 3 hound

divs4ever said:


> WE'RE IN BIG TROUBLE... (AND IT'S ABOUT TO ESCALATE)
> 
> 
> 
> a bit of a push wearing the camo jacket in mid ( UK ) summer , but yes we have been in trouble for a while





Klaus Schuab gets a mention, why is that not surprising.


----------



## divs4ever

well the war would be a timely distraction from crashing economies  , food and energy shortages  etc etc etc 

 ( and a GREAT reason to delay servicing debt loads )


----------



## 3 hound

divs4ever said:


> well the war would be a timely distraction from crashing economies  , food and energy shortages  etc etc etc
> 
> ( and a GREAT reason to delay servicing debt loads )




This is why the most ardent leftists are turning against Biden. No money for social programs promised in the election no plan to reduce inflation - big money and resources channelled into a war with Russia.

The "racists Republicans" in contrast just made history in a 85% Latino area with the election of the first female born in Mexico that overturned a democratic stronghold. She ran on Trump's key agenda items; border security, belief in God, traditional family values, pro life.....


----------



## divs4ever

i bet those ardent Leftists regret not rigging the election for Bernie ( Sanders ) now

 am not saying he would have been  the solution  , but certainly  a better option  in the USA 2022


----------



## 3 hound

divs4ever said:


> i bet those ardent Leftists regret not rigging the election for Bernie ( Sanders ) now
> 
> am not saying he would have been  the solution  , but certainly  a better option  in the USA 2022



Well they have lost their chance forever, Bernie has stated he won't be running in 2024.


Looks like those student loans will have to be paid afterall.


----------



## JohnDe

For those throwing blame at Western governments, read your history first. Russia is no angel, it is a paranoid failed state with a mad man in dictatorial control.



> Today's Russia, once more the strongest nation in Europe and yet weaker than its collective enemies, calls to mind the turn-of-the-century German Empire, which Henry Kissinger described as "too big for Europe, but too small for the world." Now, as then, a rising power, propelled by nationalism, is seeking to revise the European order. Now, as then, it believes that through superior cunning, and perhaps even by proving its might, it can force a larger role for itself. Now, as then, the drift toward war is gradual and easy to miss — which is exactly what makes it so dangerous.




June 29, 2015



> Putin's Russia is weak. It can no longer stand toe to toe with the US. It no longer has Europe divided in a stalemate; rather, it sees the continent as dominated by an ever-encroaching anti-Russian alliance. In the Russian view, the country's weakness leaves it at imminent risk, vulnerable to a hostile West bent on subjugating or outright destroying Russia as it did to Iraq and Libya.
> 
> This is made more urgent for Putin by his political problems at home.
> 
> Putin's answer has been to assert Russian power beyond its actual strength — and, in the process, to recast himself as a national hero guarding against foreign enemies. Without a world-power-class military or economy at his disposal, he is instead wielding confusion and uncertainty — which Soviet leaders rightly avoided as existential dangers — as weapons against the West.
> 
> Unable to overtly control Eastern Europe, he has fomented risks and crises there, sponsoring separatists in Ukraine and conducting dangerous military activity along NATO airspace and coastal borders, giving Russia more leverage there. Reasserting a Russian sphere of influence over Eastern Europe, he apparently believes, will finally give Russia security from the hostile West — and make Russia a great power once more.
> 
> Knowing his military is outmatched against the Americans, he is blurring the distinction between war and peace, deploying tactics that exist in, and thus widen, the gray between: militia violence, propaganda, cyberattacks, under a new rubric the Russian military sometimes calls "hybrid war."
> 
> Unable to cross America's red lines, Putin is doing his best to muddy them — and, to deter the Americans, muddying his own. Turning otherwise routine diplomatic and military incidents into games of high-stakes chicken favors Russia, he believes, as the West will ultimately yield to his superior will.
> 
> To solve the problem of Russia's conventional military weakness, he has dramatically lowered the threshold for when he would use nuclear weapons, hoping to terrify the West such that it will bend to avoid conflict. In public speeches, over and over, he references those weapons and his willingness to use them. He has enshrined, in Russia's official nuclear doctrine, a dangerous idea no Soviet leader ever adopted: that a nuclear war could be winnable.






> In early April, for example, a Russian fighter jet crossed into the Baltic Sea and "buzzed" a US military plane, missing it by only 20 feet. It was one of several recent near-misses that, according to a think tank called the European Leadership Institute, have had a "high probability of causing casualties or a direct military confrontation between Russia and Western states."
> 
> Meanwhile, Russia has been flying its nuclear-capable strategic bombers along NATO airspace, often with the planes' transponders switched off, making an accident or misperception more likely. As if that weren't dangerous enough, the bombers — hulking, decades-old Tupolev Tu-95 models — have become prone to accidents such as engine fires. What if a Tu-95 went down unexpectedly, say, off the coast of Norway? What if it was carrying nuclear warheads, or it went down during a moment of high tension? Such incidents can lead to misunderstandings, and such misunderstandings can lead to war.













						How World War III became possible
					

A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.




					www.vox.com


----------



## 3 hound

JohnDe said:


> For those throwing blame at Western governments




Blame for what incident are you referring to???


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> Blame for what incident are you referring to???




Incident? Where did you get that from? I'm sorry if my post has confused you, I know that reading is an art form these days, but homework is always good before commenting


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

JohnDe said:


> For those throwing blame at Western governments, read your history first. Russia is no angel, it is a paranoid failed state with a mad man in dictatorial control.
> 
> 
> 
> June 29, 2015
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How World War III became possible
> 
> 
> A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vox.com



Thanks @JohnDe for the enclosed vox.com article and your commentary. It is a prescient read, hard to believe it is from 7 years ago during Obama's time. 

It really brings together the current mindset in both Russia and NATO. 

And Putin is nuts, a KGB thug, a bully, through and through. 

Luckily the West seems to be marching to a different united drum now and may be able to face him down. Otherwise it will be deja vu, as they say, all over again, sometime down the track. 

gg


----------



## 3 hound

NATO announces China as a security threat to the West.


----------



## 3 hound

JohnDe said:


> Incident? Where did you get that from? I'm sorry if my post has confused you, I know that reading is an art form these days, but homework is always good before commenting






JohnDe said:


> For those throwing blame at Western governments




The quote above is worse than misinformation it's non-information. What incident are you referring that "those" are blaming which (or all) Western governments of.


A coherent response is not possible because your accusation could apply to literally an infinite number variables and possibilities.

Slow down for a second think about what you are trying to say, write it down and perhaps ask someone else if it makes any sense before you post.


----------



## Belli

Garpal Gumnut said:


> And Putin is nuts, a KGB thug, a bully, through and through.




Well, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church likes him so that's good isn't it?


----------



## JohnDe

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @JohnDe for the enclosed vox.com article and your commentary. It is a prescient read, hard to believe it is from 7 years ago during Obama's time.
> 
> It really brings together the current mindset in both Russia and NATO.
> 
> And Putin is nuts, a KGB thug, a bully, through and through.
> 
> Luckily the West seems to be marching to a different united drum now and may be able to face him down. Otherwise it will be deja vu, as they say, all over again, sometime down the track.
> 
> gg




"_Luckily the West seems to be marching to a different united drum now_" Agreed.

The worrying part of all this is that western governments are forced to back off due to increasing voter (incorrect) sentiment, giving Putin exactly what he wants - weak, do nothing governments that give him full reign to do whatever he likes. If people knew their history, they'd see the similarities to Hitler's aggression in the early 1930's.

 If all stay strong and united, Russia will back down with or without Putin.


----------



## qldfrog

The new BRICS alliance is a mortal threat to the West
					

This week it was announced that Iran and Argentina had applied to join the BRICS.  The BRICS — which until recently has been made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — is a forum that allows countries outside of Western developed economies to forge alliances on economic issues...




					unherd.com
				



This is where the trouble is..and note Brazil and Argentina...
If we had more IQ in gov..we aka Oz should be there..well or at the very least not against/opposed...
Even i find it a stretch to go to bed with iran..but if Venezuela is ok for biden now so why not Iran ..or North Korea 🤣


----------



## Telamelo

JohnDe said:


> "_Luckily the West seems to be marching to a different united drum now_" Agreed.
> 
> The worrying part of all this is that western governments are forced to back off due to increasing voter (incorrect) sentiment, giving Putin exactly what he wants - weak, do nothing governments that give him full reign to do whatever he likes. If people knew their history, they'd see the similarities to Hitler's aggression in the early 1930's.
> 
> If all stay strong and united, Russia will back down with or without Putin.



RE: "If all stay strong and united, Russia will back down with or without Putin"



Seriously @JohnDe you really think so !?  Then you don't understand/are ignorant of Russia's people/culture & Putin's intellect/mindset/mentality.

I don't condone Putin's actions whatsoever as war is pure evil but neither do I condone EU/NATO's response/actions in escalating situation. 

Clearly neither side wants peace as both keen on pursuing an escalation of war to the point of a heightened nuclear threat.

I hate/detest war simple as that but unfortunately seems like mankind/humanity hasn't learnt anything from previous world war's/conflicts & history itself.


----------



## JohnDe

Telamelo said:


> RE: "If all stay strong and united, Russia will back down with or without Putin"
> 
> 
> 
> Seriously @JohnDe you really think so !?  Then you don't understand/are ignorant of Russia's people/culture & Putin's intellect/mindset/mentality.
> 
> I don't condone Putin's actions whatsoever as war is pure evil but neither do I condone EU/NATO's response/actions in escalating situation.
> 
> Clearly neither side wants peace as both keen on pursuing an escalation of war to the point of a heightened nuclear threat.
> 
> I hate/detest war simple as that but unfortunately seems like mankind/humanity hasn't learnt anything from previous world war's/conflicts & history itself.




Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state,  and the paranoia.

Did you read the article I posted, which discusses the facts.

Imagine if the world governments stood up to Hitler’s Nazi regime in 1935.

I suggest you read the article written by people with a lot more knowledge and resources than you have.









						How World War III became possible
					

A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.




					www.vox.com


----------



## eskys

Belli said:


> Well, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church likes him so that's good isn't it?



Belli forgot about number 45


----------



## againsthegrain

There are estimates that communism killed anywhere between 8 to 20 million Russians under the soviet rule.

This is basically what you need to understand about the culture and population.  Russian east orthodox Church and culture which is a offshoot of the Greek Orthodox deviated a different way over the centuries.

Greek and Roman culture on which Europe is based is mainly aimed towards fairness and rights of the citizen (this is theory,  we are human so its never perfect)

The Russian east slavic version of the orthodox church and culture is more focused on the rights of the ruling class over the rights and fairness or the citizen.

Ivan the great, Peter the great, the Bolsheviks all of them wiped out any intellectuals or middle class that opposed their rule. Leaving behind the peasants that would obey and anybody else that submitted.

It is not that majority of Russians are so supportive of the war,  they support it or off to the gulags my friend.

There is plenty of intelligent and smart Russians that ran and never looked back, Kasparov is one example a chess grandmaster who under no pressure from anywhere says it like he sees it. Of course he doesn't have to worry about kgb knocking on his door at 2am


----------



## Smurf1976

JohnDe said:


> For those throwing blame at Western governments, read your history first. Russia is no angel, it is a paranoid failed state with a mad man in dictatorial control.



I'll simply observe that I personally know quite a few who've had major concerns about this for 25+ years now.

Concerns that becoming highly dependent on Russia and others, whilst handing them an outright fortune financially, would end very badly.

I'm no military strategist and nor is anyone I know but the basic scenario has always seemed extremely obvious. Handing lots of money to someone you've a bad history with, and becoming critically dependent on them. What could possibly go wrong.....

My conclusion being that either Western governments are run by people who don't think strategically or they've done it intentionally.

To an economic focus I note that the war already seems to have become the standard excuse for just about everything, including things that have either little to do with it or which have long been a powder keg just looking for a spark to set it off.


----------



## Telamelo

JohnDe said:


> Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state,  and the paranoia.
> 
> Did you read the article I posted, which discusses the facts.
> 
> Imagine if the world governments stood up to Hitler’s Nazi regime in 1935.
> 
> I suggest you read the article written by people with a lot more knowledge and resources than you have.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How World War III became possible
> 
> 
> A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vox.com



RE: "Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state, and the paranoia".

fyi @JohnDe firstly, I'm not ignorant to what's happening inside Russia - as I've been & lived there myself (admittedly many year's ago though). I have huge satellite dish & see live stream Russian t.v. broadcasts so know what's reported there.

I do somewhat agree with you that what is mostly reported (across traditional & social media) is controlled & monitored by the state for sure. They clamp down/get tough on any so called "western propoganda" as they call it.

ABC Radio did a recent live cross last week @ 4am to a female journalist based there in Moscow - she called it as it was as didn't hold back in what she reported about current Ukraine situation & consensus.

People in Russia are still going about their daily lives as normal - what about impact of sanctions !? what sanctions lol as having no impact there whatsoever.

Russian's terribly miss McDonald's Golden Arches as restaurant chain sold & re-branded under new Russian licensee owner Alexander Govor to continue operations as a burger restaurant chain (it ain't the same though).

P.S. I should add I'm not Russian (far from it) but did hook up with a lovely Russian girlfriend in my younger year's so reason I ended up going there lol  Always wondered what happened to her since & what if etc. such is life


----------



## 3 hound

JohnDe said:


> Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state,  and the paranoia.
> 
> Did you read the article I posted, which discusses the facts.
> 
> Imagine if the world governments stood up to Hitler’s Nazi regime in 1935.
> 
> I suggest you read the article written by people with a lot more knowledge and resources than you have.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How World War III became possible
> 
> 
> A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vox.com



Simple fact all your propaganda can't get around the fact  Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west full of resources for us to plunder and if we didn't keep encroaching on it and then Russia would not have invaded it.

We are causing the suffering of the Ukranian people, the suffering of our own people thru sanctions and we are edging the world closer to a possible nuclear world war.


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> Simple fact all your propaganda can't get around the fact  Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west full of resources for us to plunder and if we didn't keep encroaching on it and then Russia would not have invaded it.
> 
> We are causing the suffering of the Ukranian people, the suffering of our own people thru sanctions and we are edging the world closer to a possible nuclear world war.




I see we are on opposing sides. 
You with Russia and China with their ‘propaganda’ and dictators.
Myself with democratically elected governments and the peoples will for a free and just society. You may call this ‘propaganda’ but it’s always the protagonists that uses that term first.


----------



## 3 hound

JohnDe said:


> I see we are on opposing sides.
> You with Russia and China with their ‘propaganda’ and dictators.
> Myself with democratically elected governments and the peoples will for a free and just society. You may call this ‘propaganda’ but it’s always the protagonists that uses that term first.




No this is your own mis-characterisation that is completely inaccurate....it's almost as bad as your "for all those blaming western governments" old man shaking his first at the sky while rambling incoherently moment .

please try and do better.


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> No this is your own mis-characterisation that is completely inaccurate....it's almost as bad as your "for all those blaming western governments" old man shaking his first at the sky while rambling incoherently




_“Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”_, interesting how you like pointing the finger at the “west” 😉


----------



## 3 hound

You would


JohnDe said:


> _“Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”_, interesting how you blame the “west” 😉




Your use of the word "blame" sounds overly emotional as much as it is irrelevant and complete nonsense - you are the only one using the word in this thread. 

Given you are the only one using the word it appears you are only arguing with yourself.


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> You would
> 
> 
> Your use of the word "blame" sounds overly emotional as much as it is irrelevant and complete nonsense - you are the only one using the word in this thread.
> 
> Given you are the only one using the word it appears you are only arguing with yourself.




Ok, how about this  - your words “_Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west_”. And my new response for you - interesting how you like pointing the finger at the “west” 😉


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> *Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west*


----------



## againsthegrain

JohnDe said:


> _“Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”_, interesting how you like pointing the finger at the “west” 😉




You don't get more corrupt then Russia,  Putin owns 90% of the country.  It also happens that the corrupt Ukrainian government has been a Russian puppet government seeded there by Putin and given the green light.  This is exactly why the people had enough and came out to the streets to throw out Viktor Yanukovych who was later found to have a stash in his mansions like Escobar.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

When Ukrainian forces drove back the Kviv attacks early in this conflict, Russia called it a "*successful completion of phase 1*".

Now, the #SnakeIsland retreat is branded as a "_*good will gesture*_".

Looking forward to the next mangling / distortions.


----------



## JohnDe

"_The Russian advance is slow and costly. With nato-calibre weapons, fresh tactics and enough financial aid, Ukraine has every chance of forcing back Russia’s armies. Even if lost territory will be hard to retake, Ukraine can demonstrate the futility of Vladimir Putin’s campaign and emerge as a democratic, Westward-looking state. *But to do so it needs enduring support. And that is still in doubt*._"



> *How to win Ukraine’s long war*
> After doing well early in the war, Ukraine is losing ground. What next?
> 
> Ukraine won the short war. Mobile and resourceful, its troops inflicted terrible losses and confounded Russian plans to take Kyiv. Now comes the long war. It will drain weapons, lives and money until one side loses the will to fight on. So far, this is a war that Russia is winning.
> 
> In recent days its forces have taken the eastern city of Severodonetsk. They are advancing on Lysychansk and may soon control all of Luhansk province. They also threaten Slovyansk, in the north of next-door Donetsk. Ukrainian leaders say they are outgunned and lack ammunition. Their government reckons as many as 200 of its troops are dying each day.
> 
> Fortunately for Ukraine, that is not the end. The Russian advance is slow and costly. With nato-calibre weapons, fresh tactics and enough financial aid, Ukraine has every chance of forcing back Russia’s armies. Even if lost territory will be hard to retake, Ukraine can demonstrate the futility of Vladimir Putin’s campaign and emerge as a democratic, Westward-looking state. But to do so it needs enduring support. And that is still in doubt.
> 
> On the face of it, a long war suits Russia. Both sides are using huge amounts of ammunition, but Russia has vastly more. The Russian economy is much larger than Ukraine’s and in far better shape. In pursuit of victory, Russia is willing to terrorise and demoralise the Ukrainians by committing war crimes, as it did by striking a shopping mall in Kremenchuk this week. If needs be, Mr Putin will impose grievous suffering on his own people.
> 
> However, the long war does not have to be fought on Mr Putin’s terms. Potentially, Ukraine has vast numbers of motivated fighters. It can be supplied by the West’s defence industry. In 2020, before sanctions, the economies of nato were more than ten times bigger than Russia’s.
> 
> Ukraine’s turnaround begins on the battlefield, by stopping and reversing the Russian advance. Mr Putin’s generals will continue to have more weapons, but the sophisticated nato systems now arriving have longer range and greater accuracy. By adopting tactics devised in the cold war, when nato too was outnumbered by the Red Army, Ukraine should be able to destroy Russian command posts and supply depots. Ukraine scored a success on June 30th, when it used nato weapons to drive Russian forces off Snake Island, a strategic prize in the Black Sea. It should aim to impose a “hurting stalemate”, in which it takes back similarly symbolically important territory, such as the city of Kherson, imposing a heavy price on Russia.
> 
> If Russia starts to lose ground on the battlefield, dissent and infighting may spread in the Kremlin. Western intelligence services believe that Mr Putin is being kept in the dark by his subordinates. He has a habit of replacing his commanders—reportedly including General Alexander Dvornikov, brought in after the invasion’s first chaotic weeks. The West can raise the cost to Russia of a long war by continuing to press sanctions, which threaten lasting harm to Russia’s economy. It can split Russia’s elites from Mr Putin by welcoming dissenters from business and politics, and encouraging them to see that their country should not throw away its future on a pointless and costly campaign.
> 
> Will the West stay the course? At a summit on June 23rd, the European Union awarded Ukraine candidate status, promising a deep level of engagement over the next decade. At another summit in Germany this week, the g7 affirmed and strengthened sanctions against Russia. And at a third in Madrid, nato acknowledged the Russian threat by substantially increasing its presence on the alliance’s eastern front.
> 
> Yet Ukraine is a heavy burden. Western defence industries are formidable, but struggle to produce large volumes, especially of ammunition. Ukraine’s government has a monthly deficit of $5bn and the country will need rebuilding after the war. Public support for Ukraine in the West will be buffeted by a host of pressures, from inflation to elections—including, as soon as 2023, campaigning in America that may involve a presidential bid by that Ukrainophobic Putin admirer, Donald Trump.
> 
> And the global costs of a long war will grow. Mr Putin has been blockading exports of grains and sunflower oil from Ukraine’s ports, which will cause unrest and starvation in poorer importing countries. He seems to be trying to create gas shortages in the eu this winter by preventing members from building stocks over the summer. If unity falls apart over energy, as eu states hoard gas, it will disintegrate over Ukraine, too. To complicate matters further, nato members worry that if Ukraine gains the upper hand, Mr Putin will escalate. That could draw them into a catastrophic war with Russia.
> 
> You can see where Mr Putin is heading. He will take as much of Ukraine as he can, declare victory and then call on Western nations to impose his terms on Ukraine. In exchange, he will spare the rest of the world from ruin, hunger, cold and the threat of nuclear Armageddon.
> 
> To accept that deal would be a grave miscalculation. Ukraine would face permanent Russian aggression. The more Mr Putin believes he has succeeded in Ukraine, the more belligerent he will become. He set out his ambitions in a speech this month, smirking as he talked about how Peter the Great seized parts of Sweden. He will fight tomorrow with whatever weapons work for him today. That means resorting to war crimes and nuclear threats, starving the world and freezing Europe.
> 
> The best way to prevent the next war is to defeat him in this one. Leaders need to explain to their people that they are not only defending an abstract principle in Ukraine, but also their most fundamental interest: their own security. The eu needs to shore up its energy markets so that they do not fracture next winter. Ukraine must have more weapons. The risk of escalation today is real, but if a bad peace is forced on Ukraine Mr Putin’s nuclear threats will not stop. They will only become more dangerous, especially if Russia’s conventional forces are at a disadvantage.
> 
> In the long war ordinary Russians will suffer and Ukrainians endure unspeakable pain for Mr Putin’s vanity. To prevail means marshalling resources and shoring up Ukraine as a viable, sovereign, Western-leaning country—an outcome that its defiant people crave. Ukraine and its backers have the men, money and materiel to overcome Mr Putin. Do they all have the will?


----------



## Sean K

So, this is still unfolding, as I expected. 

A Russian strategic feint to the North while they come in from the South and East. 

I think their objective is to gain all territory East of the Dnipro River, with a stretch goal of making Ukraine landlocked, which will be very difficult.  

Ultimately, I think there will be a ceasefire, and peace talks, and Russia will succeed in gaining territory where there are Russian speakers. But, Ukraine will have a piece if the Black Sea.  

A better outcome, IMO, is Russia collapses. This will require a massive sacrifice from the West and China staying out of the fight.


----------



## bluekelah

Sean K said:


> So, this is still unfolding, as I expected.
> 
> A Russian strategic feint to the North while they come in from the South and East.
> 
> I think their objective is to gain all territory East of the Dnipro River, with a stretch goal of making Ukraine landlocked, which will be very difficult.
> 
> Ultimately, I think there will be a ceasefire, and peace talks, and Russia will succeed in gaining territory where there are Russian speakers. But, Ukraine will have a piece if the Black Sea.
> 
> A better outcome, IMO, is Russia collapses. This will require a massive sacrifice from the West and China staying out of the fight.



Unfortunately USA might collapse before Russia does with uncontrolled hyperinflation and likely big recession/stagflation coming, as well as loss of USD dominance.

Russia will always be backed by China which is now the rising superpower, their ruble has recovered very sharply after the gold peg and now at 5 years highs. Russia has also switched to Chinese payment systems since sanctions started.

China has Unionpay to rival visa and CIPS to rival swift. Plus digital yuan vs paper USD, which is being used more and more within the BRICs nations and will likely gain a lot of global trade acceptance in the near future and could likely replace the petro-dollar system. Recent NATO labelling china as a security threat will just push China into helping Russia.

IMO the endgame for Russia is to make sure Aegis Ashore nuclear capable system does not have a chance to get built in Ukraine. And if possible, get NATO to remove the soon to be completed second site in Poland. The first site in Romania completed in 2015, I am sure   the Russians not liking that one either. These so called defence sites are tomahawk missile launch capable and can be loaded with nuclear warheads if needed. These can reach major Russian cities.

It is a very similar situation to the 1960s cuban missile crisis where Russia built nuke launch sites in Cuba in response to secret nuke launch sites built by Americans in Turkey which were aimed at russia. Only this time NATO is at Russia's doorstep. I believe the next POTUS will have to sit down with Putin to hash out  something in order to end the war in Ukraine, either that or Russia wil just slowly take down city by city. I am not sure why Russia is not just turning off the water supply and winning outright. Perhaps they just want to drag the war on and cause hyperinflation and cause EURO and USA economies to crash.


----------



## 3 hound

The war and suffering for everyone will stop instantly if NATO simply say Ukraine will never be a part of NATO either directly or via the current proxy membership.


----------



## qldfrog

3 hound said:


> The war and suffering for everyone will stop instantly if NATO simply say Ukraine will never be a part of NATO either directly or via the current proxy membership.



Would not have started, but honestly, would not blame Russia for not trusting that:
the Minsk resolutions were broken in no time.
They're better off getting a buffer.And why stopping now that they are on a stronger position.
I doubt it will end so easily now, and do not forget the tactical nuke wild card.
And you can trust no one,US & EU included 

#Yesterday Russia annonced the fall of Lyssytchansk,
#within half an hour at 18:32 Paris time the khaki actor president was denying it during a talk with our own joker Albanese. 
WTH! Do we really need to get involved with loser sides all the time?
#At 19:02...30 min later ,the Ukrainian army admitted "withdrawal"..probably meaning captured/killed if recent history is a guide

I understand Propaganda is integral part of war but a bit of truth could increase credibility of various sides...
For references:
 Time line from  https://www.leparisien.fr/internati...ect-03-07-2022-2DZTF6463NEUPMHQOGBESROFQE.php


----------



## 3 hound

qldfrog said:


> Would not have started, but honestly, would not blame Russia for not trusting that:
> the Minsk resolutions were broken in no time.
> They're better off getting a buffer.And why stopping now that they are on a stronger position.
> I doubt it will end so easily now, and do not forget the tactical nuke wild card.
> And you can trust no one,US & EU included
> 
> #Yesterday Russia annonced the fall of Lyssytchansk,
> #within half an hour at 18:32 Paris time the khaki actor president was denying it during a talk with our own joker Albanese.
> WTH! Do we really need to get involved with loser sides all the time?
> #At 19:02...30 min later ,the Ukrainian army admitted "withdrawal"..probably meaning captured/killed if recent history is a guide
> 
> I understand Propaganda is integral part of war but a bit of truth could increase credibility of various sides...
> For references:
> Time line from  https://www.leparisien.fr/internati...ect-03-07-2022-2DZTF6463NEUPMHQOGBESROFQE.php




Our gov would never lie about our progress. Look at all the vast  stockpiles of WMD's we found in Iraq and how successfully we won the war in Afghanistan.


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> The war and suffering for everyone will stop instantly if NATO simply say Ukraine will never be a part of NATO either directly or via the current proxy membership.




The war & suffering will stop instantly if Putin and Russia stop their illegal incursion/invasion and war crimes.

*Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is illegal under international law*​​Apologists for the invasion have focused on the West’s ‘provocation’ of Russia, particularly through its expansion of NATO to include Eastern European states such as Croatia, Estonia and Poland.​​But focusing on the reasons why Russia feels threatened by the West confuses causation with justification. In addition, by referring only to the reasons why Russia supposedly feels threatened, and failing to address the legal position at all, the South African government, the governing African National Congress – and other apologists – undermine the most cardinal rule of our international legal order.​​Russia has not suffered an armed attack from Ukraine, or, indeed, any state. Neither NATO’s presence in Ukraine nor any of the other justifications offered by Russia and its apologists reach the threshold of an armed attack. This includes a range of allegations. These cover the alleged mistreatment by Ukraine of Russian speakers in that state, alleged links between the West and the far-right in Ukraine, and the alleged presence of sophisticated weapons in the state.​​Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, therefore, illegal.​


> *How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Violates International Law*
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates the UN Charter and cannot be justified under international law as an act of self-defense or humanitarian intervention.
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, a central tenet of the charter that requires UN member states to refrain from the “use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”
> 
> The suggestion by President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials that Russia’s use of force is justified under Article 51 of the UN Charter has no support in fact or law. Article 51 provides that “nothing in the present charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a member of the United Nations.” However, Ukraine did not commit or threaten to commit an armed attack against Russia or any other UN member state. Even if Russia could show that Ukraine had committed or planned to commit attacks on Russians in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Article 51 would not permit an action in collective self-defense, because Donetsk and Luhansk are not UN member states. Indeed, they do not even qualify as states under international law, despite their purported secession from Ukraine and Russia’s recognition of them as independent.


----------



## Craton

Making up their own rules and put into law, Putin and his corrupt, croony, megalomaniac mates lust for total control is boundless.
As per the article linked below.



> Vladimir Putin and his Friends – Taking Control of Russian Wine​
> When he is not focusing his attention on his invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president and his entourage take a particular interest in wine. Last year, laws allowing domestic wine to be described as _shampanskoe_ on official labels while Champagne could only be called ‘sparkling wine’ hit the headlines. But, as Sergey Panov reveals, other moves have been far more significant.




Further in the article:



> *A different concept of ownership*
> 
> While talking of shareholding and ownership in Russia, it is important not to imagine that these terms carry the same meaning as in the US or Europe, for example. Under President Putin, a system dubbed ‘crony capitalism’ by Sergey Guriev, Professor of Economics and former head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, prevails. Proximity to power has replaced traditional concepts of acquisition and ownership.


----------



## basilio

A change of perspective. How do we intend to fertilise our crops with Russia strangling fertiliser exports becasue of the war sanctions.
So how much xiss passes away at the MCG/Sydney stadium/Marvel ? What would it take to recycle this resource?

Peecycling: could donating your urine to farmers help feed the world?​Thanks to the war in Ukraine, there is a shortage of agricultural chemicals. As each adult produces enough pee annually to fertilise 145kg of wheat, perhaps bodily waste is the answer









						Peecycling: could donating your urine to farmers help feed the world?
					

Thanks to the war in Ukraine, there is a shortage of agricultural chemicals. As each adult produces enough pee annually to fertilise 145kg of wheat, perhaps bodily waste is the answer




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## 3 hound

basilio said:


> A change of perspective. How do we intend to fertilise our crops with Russia strangling fertiliser exports becasue of the war sanctions.
> So how much xiss passes away at the MCG/Sydney stadium/Marvel ? What would it take to recycle this resource?
> 
> Peecycling: could donating your urine to farmers help feed the world?​Thanks to the war in Ukraine, there is a shortage of agricultural chemicals. As each adult produces enough pee annually to fertilise 145kg of wheat, perhaps bodily waste is the answer
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Peecycling: could donating your urine to farmers help feed the world?
> 
> 
> Thanks to the war in Ukraine, there is a shortage of agricultural chemicals. As each adult produces enough pee annually to fertilise 145kg of wheat, perhaps bodily waste is the answer
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com




Will it be tested for drugs, asking for a friend.


----------



## 3 hound

Looks like the EU is hell bent on WWIII under the guise of NATO freeing Ukraine.

I could never understand Trump's approach to the EU and NATO, he is starting to make more sense now.


----------



## JohnDe

3 hound said:


> Looks like the EU is hell bent on WWIII under the guise of NATO freeing Ukraine.
> 
> I could never understand Trump's approach to the EU and NATO, he is starting to make more sense now.




I could never understand Trump's orange skin. Some sort of preservative?


----------



## Telamelo

JohnDe said:


> The war & suffering will stop instantly if Putin and Russia stop their illegal incursion/invasion and war crimes.
> 
> *Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is illegal under international law*​​Apologists for the invasion have focused on the West’s ‘provocation’ of Russia, particularly through its expansion of NATO to include Eastern European states such as Croatia, Estonia and Poland.​​But focusing on the reasons why Russia feels threatened by the West confuses causation with justification. In addition, by referring only to the reasons why Russia supposedly feels threatened, and failing to address the legal position at all, the South African government, the governing African National Congress – and other apologists – undermine the most cardinal rule of our international legal order.​​Russia has not suffered an armed attack from Ukraine, or, indeed, any state. Neither NATO’s presence in Ukraine nor any of the other justifications offered by Russia and its apologists reach the threshold of an armed attack. This includes a range of allegations. These cover the alleged mistreatment by Ukraine of Russian speakers in that state, alleged links between the West and the far-right in Ukraine, and the alleged presence of sophisticated weapons in the state.​​Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, therefore, illegal.​



Let me remind everyone that
Zelenskyy is Jewish.

Therein lies another dilemma as US/Israel are backing/financing Ukraine.

I recall reading a prophecy that Putin will "down the track" eventually target/threaten Israel.

We are on the brink of WWIII imo as @3 hound said earlier "Looks like the EU is hell bent on WWIII under the guise of NATO freeing Ukraine".


----------



## JohnDe

Telamelo said:


> Let me remind everyone that
> Zelenskyy is Jewish.
> 
> Therein lies another dilemma as US/Israel are backing/financing Ukraine.
> 
> I recall reading a prophecy that Putin will "down the track" eventually target/threaten Israel.
> 
> We are on the brink of WWIII imo as @3 hound said earlier "Looks like the EU is hell bent on WWIII under the guise of NATO freeing Ukraine".




Wow, you just bypassed that international laws have been broken by Russia and gone straight to someone’s religion. Wow, amazing.









						Russia's invasion of Ukraine is illegal under international law: suggesting it's not is dangerous
					

No state in the global community should have to earn Russia’s compliance with the law. If the rule of law is not respected, the entire global community becomes as vulnerable as Ukraine is now.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Telamelo

JohnDe said:


> Wow, you just bypassed that international laws have been broken by Russia and gone straight to someone’s religion. Wow, amazing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's invasion of Ukraine is illegal under international law: suggesting it's not is dangerous
> 
> 
> No state in the global community should have to earn Russia’s compliance with the law. If the rule of law is not respected, the entire global community becomes as vulnerable as Ukraine is now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com



There are many pieces to this "complicated Ukrainian jigsaw puzzle"


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_In truth, Russian bombs are targeting not only random people, shops, medical buildings, pets. They are also targeting the whole apparatus of international law governing war crimes, human rights, and terrorism. With every bomb that Russian forces knowingly drop on an apartment building, and every missile they direct at a school or hospital, they are demonstrating their scorn and contempt for the global institutions Russia was once so desperate to join._

- Anne Applebaum









						Russia’s War Against Ukraine Has Turned Into Terrorism
					

The Russian military isn’t just bombing civilians. It’s also targeting the laws and values that protect human rights.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## 3 hound

Dona Ferentes said:


> Russian bombs are targeting not only random people, shops, medical buildings, pets.





a). Targetting

b). Random

Choose one.


----------



## Sean K

3 hound said:


> a). Targetting
> 
> b). Random
> 
> Choose one.




I think the words chosen are correct. Russia is targeting civilian buildings. Random people, not military. It's against IHL and LOAC enmeshed in the Geneva Conventions.


----------



## 3 hound

Sean K said:


> I think the words chosen are correct. Russia is targeting civilian buildings. Random people, not military. It's against IHL and LOAC enmeshed in the Geneva Conventions.




Then it might be random bombing of civilian targets perhaps.

Soon as you are 'targetting" it's no longer random - the random part spontaneously disappears. Do you people even physics.

An example would be the US bombing of North Vietnam


A dumb ass bombing in contrast would be what Biden did to that car load of children during the Afghanistan withdrawal disaster.

how is this not totally and blatantly obvious???

Random would involve closing your your eyes or something.


----------



## Craton

Logical or lexical semantics, choose one.

Random targetting is a method of targeting that simply chooses a random angle among the angles that could possibly hit the opponent.


----------



## eskys

3 hound must have lumped targeting and random together as verbs. From what I understand, targeting in this instance is a verb, eg, taking aim. The 'random' describes the public...


----------



## 3 hound

Is there a flat distribution on the spectrum of locations where the bombs land within the battleground?

If no then not random.


----------



## eskys

3 hound said:


> a). Targetting
> 
> b). Random
> 
> Choose one.



From Dona's post, it reads 'random people'  In this instance, the random describes people who are the public. It's not an act which is a verb, eg, targeting


----------



## 3 hound

eskys said:


> From Dona's post, it reads 'random people'  In this instance, the random describes people who are the public. It's not an act which is a verb, eg, targeting




Hate be the bringer of bad news but.....

https://www.google.com/search?q=tar...lstra-au-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Dona was even specific enough to discriminate for pets.


----------



## qldfrog

3 hound said:


> https://www.google.com/search?q=tar...lstra-au-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
> 
> Dona was even specific enough to discriminate for pets.



Does not really matter syntax or not.
There are no civilians left on the battlefront anyway.


----------



## eskys

3 hound said:


> Hate be the bringer of bad news but.....
> 
> https://www.google.com/search?q=tar...lstra-au-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
> 
> Dona was even specific enough to discriminate for pets.



I know, we can get so wound up, before we know it, we will start our own war on ASF


----------



## Sean K

3 hound said:


> Then it might be random bombing of civilian targets perhaps.
> 
> Soon as you are 'targetting" it's no longer random - the random part spontaneously disappears. Do you people even physics.
> 
> An example would be the US bombing of North Vietnam
> 
> 
> A dumb ass bombing in contrast would be what Biden did to that car load of children during the Afghanistan withdrawal disaster.
> 
> how is this not totally and blatantly obvious???
> 
> Random would involve closing your your eyes or something.




I think it's semantics and how you interpret the statement. 

I think the guts of it is that it's proposed that Russia is deliberately targeting civilians. They may or may not be, and the multiple recorded cases of civilians being raped, shot and bombed could be accidents and just Ukrainian/Western propaganda.

But, the deliberate targeting of civilians goes back as far as recorded history. All sides have done it. It's why humanity has tried to introduce laws of armed conflict to prevent it. But it will go on for strategic advantage or even to suddenly cause an enemy to surrender. eg, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.


----------



## 3 hound

Sean K said:


> think the guts of it is that it's proposed that Russia is deliberately targeting civilians. They may or may not be





I agree, not that hard really.


----------



## qldfrog

3 hound said:


> I agree, not that hard really.



And sadly modern war has been more and more targetting civilians so much so that after WWI, in conflicts, it is nearly safer to be in the military than a civilian, and definitively more civilian deaths than military.
Dresden flattening and A Bomb vs Japan, Vietnam were just the start
In middle age, or during Napoleonic wars, only sieges were including civilians as key strategic targets...


----------



## 3 hound

qldfrog said:


> And sadly modern war has been more and more targetting civilians so much so that after WWI, in conflicts, it is nearly safer to be in the military than a civilian, and definitively more civilian deaths than military.
> Dresden flattening and A Bomb vs Japan, Vietnam were just the start
> In middle age, or during Napoleonic wars, only sieges were including civilians as key strategic targets...




Bring back the days when those that declared war literally led their soldiers into battle and were first into the fight.


----------



## qldfrog

And today another round of bad Russians targetting babies pregnant women and chinchillas...
The wsj..probably a Moscow ally? Has a bit more details and a revealing picture 
	

		
			
		

		
	






Never trust propaganda from either side


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_from ISW_

* Calls among Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s war aims, mobilize the state fully for war, and drop the pretext that Russia is not engaged in a war reached a crescendo on July 19. *Former Russian militant commander and nationalist milblogger Igor Girkin presented an extensive list of military, economic, and political actions that he argues the Kremlin must take to win the war in Ukraine; first among this list is abandoning the rhetoric of the “special military operation” and defining the official goals of the _war _in Ukraine.[1] Girkin advocated for expansive territorial aims beyond the Kremlin’s stated ambitions in Donbas, including the reunification of the entire territory of “Novorossiya” (which Girkin maintains includes Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts as well as Kryvyi Rih) with the Russian Federation and the creation of a Malorossiya state (all of Ukraine up to the Polish border), which Girkin claims should be reunified with Russia through the Russia-Belarus Union State. Girkin also called for the Kremlin to shift the Russian economy fully to a war footing and to carry out extensive mobilization measures including forced conscription and the (further) suspension of Russians’ rights.[2] Girkin has often criticized what he views as a lack of ambition and decisive action in the Kremlin’s handling of the war in Ukraine through his calls for maximalist objectives and measures to support territorial gains. His newest list of demands adds to the growing discontent within the Russian pro-war nationalist zeitgeist.[3]

*While Girkin’s July 19 post is an acerbic critique of the Kremlin’s intentions in Ukraine, other Russian milbloggers sought to shape a narrative favoring Putin while advancing the same maximalist aims by suggesting that the Kremlin has been purposefully setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine since the war began*. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok claimed that Russia has been pursuing the “Syrianization” of the war in Ukraine by never articulating specific deadlines or goals for operations in Ukraine.[4] The explicit invocation of protracted Russian operations in Syria suggests that certain Russian nationalist voices are setting conditions for a long war in a way that saves face for the Kremlin given Russia’s failure to secure its military objectives in Ukraine in the very short period that the Kremlin initially planned.

*Putin could simply ignore the milbloggers, although he has shown concern for their positions in the recent past, or he could play off their narratives in several ways.[5] *He might wait and see what resonance their calls for full mobilization and broader war aims have within the portions of the Russian population he cares most about. He might hope that their semi-independent calls for more extreme measures could fuel support for an expansion of aims and mobilization that he desires but feels Russians remain unprepared to accept. He may instead reject their calls for grander ambitions and greater sacrifices, thereby presenting himself as the moderate leader refraining from demanding too much from his people.

*US officials reported that Russia plans to annex occupied Ukrainian territory as soon as autumn 2022, confirming ISW’s May 2022 assessment. *US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby announced that the Kremlin is beginning to roll out a version of its 2014 “annexation playbook” in Ukraine and is “examining detailed plans” to annex Kherson, Zaporizhia, and all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, citing newly declassified intelligence.[6] Kirby confirmed ISW’s long-running assessment that the Kremlin has installed illegitimate proxy officials, forced use of the ruble, replaced Ukrainian telecommunications and broadcast infrastructure with Russian alternatives, and forced Ukrainians to apply for Russian passports to accomplish basic tasks in occupied territories.[7] As ISW wrote on May 13, Putin’s timeline for annexation is likely contingent on the extent to which he understands the degraded state of the Russian military in Ukraine.[8] He may intend to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast before annexing all occupied territories, which would likely force him to postpone annexation. Russia’s degraded forces are unlikely to occupy all of Donetsk Oblast before Russia’s September 11 unified voting day for local and gubernatorial elections across the country, the most likely date for annexation referenda to be held.[9] The Kremlin could also postpone these Russian regional and local elections to limit expressions of domestic dissatisfaction with the Russian invasion of Ukraine—independent Latvia-based Russian language newspaper _Meduza_ reported in May that members of Russia’s Federal Security Service and National Security Council were lobbying to postpone the September 2022 elections.[10]

*Putin could leverage nuclear threats to deter a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts.[11] *After annexation, Putin may state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities, although previous Russian hints at Moscow’s willingness to use nuclear weapons have proven hollow. *Ukraine and its Western partners may have a narrowing window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Ukrainian territory before the Kremlin annexes that territory.*[12]

*Russian milbloggers are increasingly openly criticizing the Russian military for failing to address structural problems with Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), highlighting the VDV’s failure to fight the war as it had trained in peacetime, a failing that played no small role in the general Russian failures during the initial invasion. *Russian milblogger _Military Informant _stated that Russian VDV has not adopted force structure and tactics reforms that the Russian military already knew were necessary prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[13] _Military Informant _stated that lightly armored Russian VDV vehicles (such as BMD and BTR-D) are too heavy to enable effective airborne mobility—especially in contested airspace—and too light to provide sufficient protection in maneuver warfare. Russian milblogger Alexander Sladkov similarly noted that Russian VDV forces‘ structural reliance on a small number of lightly armored fighting vehicles is a liability.[14]_ Military Informant _praised how the Russian VDV previously practiced using light unarmored vehicles for higher mobility in three consecutive years of annual capstone command staff exercises (Tsentr 2019, Kavkaz 2020, and Zapad 2021) but noted that these adaptations did not have time to “take root” before the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.





__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Calls among Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand Russia’s war aims, mobilize the state fully for war, and drop the pretext that Russia is not engaged in a war reached a crescendo on July 19. Former Russian




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Ukraine Is the Next Act in Putin’s Empire of Humiliation​By Peter Pomerantsev

Mr. Pomerantsev is the author of “_This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality._”


> .... The editorial board of The New York Times has said that Ukraine will most likely have to accept territorial compromises. Mr. Macron has said that the West should avoid humiliating Russia. Such proposals are fundamentally misguided: Russia’s sense of humiliation is internal, not imposed upon it. To coddle the Putin regime is merely to participate in the cycle  ....













						Opinion | Ukraine Is the Next Act in Putin’s Empire of Humiliation
					

There seems to be nothing in Russia’s mainstream discourse that takes responsibility for the past and imagines a different path forward.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## JohnDe

From the start of the war I wondered why the Russian army painted Z on all their equipment, and then I read this article on Friday night. Has all of Russia turned into a fascist state? It appears so. And worst of all, it's spreading.

I had a conversation with an older gentleman on Saturday, he believes that the world has gone to shyte, our current leaders are soft, and only the strong nations like Russia and China will survive and prosper. (Edit: when he was young he fought against communism in Europe, now he supports it).

Are we witnessing the 1930's all over again? I hope not, I don't think so, but our governments and education systems need to be proactive and ensure that history is taught so that we don't repeat it.



> *Vladimir Putin is in thrall to a distinctive brand of Russian fascism*
> That is why his country is such a threat to Ukraine, the West and his own people
> 
> What matters most in Moscow these days is what is missing. Nobody speaks openly of the war in Ukraine. The word is banned and talk is dangerous. The only trace of the fighting going on 1,000km to the south is advertising hoardings covered with portraits of heroic soldiers. And yet Russia is in the midst of a war.
> 
> In the same way, Moscow has no torch processions. Displays of the half-swastika “z” sign, representing support for the war, are rare. Stormtroopers do not stage pogroms. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s ageing dictator, does not rally crowds of ecstatic youth or call for mass mobilisation. And yet Russia is in the grip of fascism.
> 
> Just as Moscow conceals its war behind a “special military operation”, so it conceals its fascism behind a campaign to eradicate “Nazis” in Ukraine. Nevertheless Timothy Snyder, a professor at Yale University, detects the tell-tale symptoms: “People disagree, often vehemently, over what constitutes fascism,” he wrote recently in the New York Times, “but today’s Russia meets most of the criteria.”
> 
> The Kremlin has built a cult of personality around Mr Putin and a cult of the dead around the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45. Mr Putin’s regime yearns to restore a lost golden age and for Russia to be purged by healing violence. You could add to Mr Snyder’s list a hatred of homosexuality, a fixation with the traditional family and a fanatical faith in the power of the state. None of these come naturally in a secular country with a strong anarchist streak and permissive views on sex.
> 
> Understanding where Russia is going under Mr Putin means understanding where it has come from. For much of his rule, the West saw Russia as a mafia state presiding over an atomised society. That was not wrong, but it was incomplete. A decade ago Mr Putin’s popularity began to wane. He responded by drawing on the fascist thinking that had re-emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
> 
> This may have begun as a political calculation, but Mr Putin got caught up in a cycle of grievance and resentment that has left reason far behind. It has culminated in a ruinous war that many thought would never happen precisely because it defied the weighing of risks and rewards.
> 
> Under Mr Putin’s form of fascism, Russia is set on a course that knows no turning back. Without the rhetoric of victimhood and the use of violence, Mr Putin has nothing to offer his people. For Western democracies this onward march means that, while he is in power, dealings with Russia will be riven by hostility and contempt. Some in the West want a return to business as usual once the war is over, but there can be no true peace with a fascist Russia.
> 
> For Ukraine, this means a long war. Mr Putin’s aim is not only to take territory, but to crush the democratic ideal that is flourishing among Russia’s neighbours and their sense of separate national identity. He cannot afford to lose. Even if there is a ceasefire, he is intent on making Ukraine fail, with a fresh use of force if necessary. It means that he will use violence and totalitarianism to impose his will at home. He is not only out to crush a free Ukraine, but is also waging war against the best dreams of his own people. So far he is winning.
> 
> War is peace​What is Russian fascism? The f word is often tossed around casually. It has no settled definition, but it feeds on exceptionalism and ressentiment, a mixture of jealousy and frustration born out of humiliation. In Russia’s case, the source of this humiliation is not defeat by foreign powers, but abuse suffered by the people at the hands of their own rulers. Deprived of agency and fearful of the authorities, they seek compensation in an imaginary revenge against enemies appointed by the state.
> 
> Fascism involves performances—think of all those rallies and uniforms—laced with the thrill of real violence. In all its varieties, Mr Snyder says, it is characterised by the triumph of the will over reason. His essay was entitled “We should say it. Russia is fascist”. In fact the first to talk about it were Russians themselves. One of them was Yegor Gaidar, the first post-Soviet prime minister. In 2007 he saw a spectre rising from Russia’s post-imperial nostalgia. “Russia is going through a dangerous phase,” he wrote. “We should not succumb to the magic of numbers but the fact that there was a 15-year gap between the collapse of the German Empire and Hitler’s rise to power and 15 years between the collapse of the ussr and Russia in 2006-07 makes one think…”
> 
> By 2014 Boris Nemtsov, another liberal politician, was clear: “Aggression and cruelty are stoked by the television while the key definitions are supplied by the slightly possessed Kremlin master…The Kremlin is cultivating and rewarding the lowest instincts in people, provoking hatred and fighting. This hell cannot end peacefully.”
> 
> A year later Nemtsov, by then labelled a “national traitor”, was murdered beside the Kremlin. In his final interview, a few hours before his death, he warned that “Russia is rapidly turning into a fascist state. We already have propaganda modelled after Nazi Germany. We also have a nucleus of assault brigades…That’s just the beginning.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Solovyov fights the libs
> 
> Nobody has signalled the growing influence of fascism more loudly than Mr Putin and his acolytes. Far from Moscow’s prosperous streets, the Kremlin has marked tanks, people and television channels with the letter z. The half-swastika has been painted on the doors of Russian film and theatre critics, promoters of “decadent and degenerate” Western art. Hospital patients and groups of children, some kneeling, have been arranged to form half-swastikas for posting online.
> 
> In the 1930s Walter Benjamin, an exiled German cultural critic, analysed fascism as a performance. “The logical result of fascism is the introduction of aesthetics into political life,” he wrote. These aesthetics were designed to supplant reason and their ultimate expression was war.
> 
> Today the two faces of the war on television, Vladimir Solovyov and Olga Skabeeva, are caricatures of Nazi propagandists. Mr Solovyov is often dressed in a black double-breasted Bavarian-style jacket. Ms Skabeeva, severe and chiselled, has a hint of the dominatrix. They project hatred and aggression. They and their guests decry the West for having declared war on Russia and plead theatrically with Mr Putin to reduce it to ashes by unleashing the full might of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
> 
> This fantasy Armageddon is matched by real violence, the basis of the relationship between the Russian state and its people. A Levada poll commissioned by Committee Against Torture (now itself blacklisted) showed that 10% of the Russian population has experienced torture by law-enforcement agencies at some point. There is a culture of cruelty. Domestic abuse is no longer a crime in Russia. In the first week of the war young women protesters were humiliated and sexually abused in police cells. Nearly 30% of Russians say torture should be allowed.
> 
> Atrocities committed by the Russian army in Bucha and other occupied cities are not just excesses of war or a breakdown in discipline, but a feature of army life that is spread more widely by veterans. The 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, which allegedly carried out the atrocities, was honoured by Mr Putin with the title of “Guards” for defending the “motherland and state interests” and praised for its “mass heroism and valour, tenacity and courage”. The brigade, based in the far east, is notorious in Russia for its bullying and abuse.
> 
> Like much else coming from the Kremlin, fascism is a top-down project, a move by the ruling elite rather than a grassroots movement. It requires passive acceptance rather than mobilisation of the masses. Its aim is to disengage people and prevent any form of self-organisation. The Kremlin and television bosses can turn it up and down. In the early years of his presidency Mr Putin used money to keep the people out of politics. After the economy stalled in 2011-12 and the urban middle class came out on the streets to demand more rights, he stoked nationalism and hatred. During the political calm after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 fascism was turned down as suddenly as it had come up.
> 
> Its resurgence in 2021-22 followed the decline in Mr Putin’s legitimacy, protests against the poisoning and arrest of Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, and the growing alienation of younger Russians who are less susceptible to television propaganda and more open to the West. To them Mr Putin was an ageing, vengeful and corrupt grandpa who had a secret palace exposed by Mr Navalny’s much-watched YouTube film in 2021. Mr Putin needed to turn the volume back up again and Ukraine offered him the means.
> 
> Freedom is slavery​Russian fascism has deep roots, going all the way back to the early 20th century. Fascist ideas flourished among White émigrés after the Bolshevik revolution and they were partly re-imported to the Soviet Union by Stalin after the war. He feared that a victory over fascism, won with America and Britain, would empower and liberate his own people. So he turned Soviet success into the triumph of totalitarianism and Russian imperial nationalism. He re-branded war allies as enemies and fascists hellbent on destroying the Soviet Union and depriving it of its glory.
> 
> In the decades that followed, fascism was constrained by official communist ideology and by Russians’ personal experience of fighting the Nazis alongside the Western allies. After the Soviet collapse, however, both of these constraints disappeared and the dark matter was released. In addition, the liberal elite of the 1990s completely rejected the old Soviet values, sweeping away a strong tradition of anti-fascist literature and arts.
> 
> All the while fascism had festered undercover, within the kgb. In the late 1990s Alexander Yakovlev, the architect of democratic reforms under Mikhail Gorbachev, talked openly about the security services as a cradle of fascism. “The danger of fascism in Russia is real because since 1917 we have become used to living in a criminal world with a criminal state in charge. Banditry, sanctified by ideology—this wording suits both communists and fascists.”
> 
> Such ambiguity was on full display in “Seventeen Moments of Spring”, a hugely popular 12-part television series made on the kgb’s orders in the 1970s. On the face of it, the series was nothing more than an attempt to rebrand the Stalinist secret police. Yuri Andropov, then kgb chief and later Soviet leader, wanted to glamorise Soviet spies and attract a new generation of young men into the service. As it turned out, the programmes helped introduce a Nazi aesthetic into Russia’s popular culture—an aesthetic that would eventually be exploited by Mr Putin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian, not Ukrainian, fascism
> 
> The hero is a fictional Soviet spy who infiltrates the Nazi high command under the name Max Otto von Stierlitz. He is a high-ranking Standartenführer in the ss, whose mission is to foil a secret plan forged between the cia and Germany near the end of the war. Played by the best-loved Soviet actors, the Nazis in the film are humane and attractive. Vyacheslav Tikhonov, who played the role of Stierlitz, was a model of male perfection. Tall and handsome, with perfect cheekbones, he shone in a sleek Nazi uniform that had been tailored in the Soviet defence ministry.
> 
> Ordinary Russians were mesmerised. Dmitry Prigov, a Russian artist and poet, wrote: “Our wonderful Stierlitz is the perfect fascist man and the perfect Soviet man at the same time, making transgressive transitions from one to the other with subduing and untraceable ease...He is the harbinger of a new age—a time of mobility and manipulativeness.”
> 
> Mr Putin was the beneficiary. In 1999, just before he was named as Russia’s president, voters told pollsters that Stierlitz would be one of their ideal choices for the office, behind Georgy Zhukov, the Red Army’s commander in the second world war. Mr Putin, a former kgb man who had been stationed in East Germany, had cultivated the image of a latter-day Stierlitz.
> 
> When vtsiom, one of the pollsters, repeated the exercise in 2019, Stierlitz came in first place. “An inversion has occurred,” the pollsters said. “In 1999 Putin seemed the preferred candidate because he looked like Stierlitz; in 2019 the image of Stierlitz remains relevant because it is being implemented by the country’s most popular politician.” On June 24th this year a statue to Stierlitz was unveiled in front of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) headquarters that was part of the Soviet KGB.
> 
> For Mr Putin, the fascist aesthetic is matched by a distinctively Russian fascist philosophy. He and most of his former kgb peers embraced capitalism and rallied against liberals and socialists. They also projected the humiliation they had suffered in the first post-Soviet decade onto the whole country, portraying the end of the cold war as a betrayal and defeat.
> 
> Their prophet is Ivan Ilyin, a thinker of the early 20th century who was sent into exile by the Bolsheviks in the 1920s and embraced fascism in Italy and Germany. Ilyin saw fascism as a “necessary and inevitable phenomenon…based on a healthy sense of national patriotism”. He provided justification for their self-appointed role as the state’s guardians. As such, they were entitled to control its resources.
> 
> After the second world war, Ilyin rejected what he saw as Hitler’s errors, such as atheism, and his crimes, including the extermination of the Jews. But he retained his faith in the fascist idea of national resurgence. In 1948 he wrote that “fascism is a complex, multifaceted phenomenon and, historically speaking, far from being outlived.” Accordingly, Mr Putin embraced religion, rejected anti-Semitism and eschewed collective leadership for his own direct rule, confirmed by plebiscites.
> 
> Ilyin’s book, “Our Tasks”, was recommended by the Kremlin as essential reading to state officials in 2013. It ends with a short essay to a future Russian leader. Western-style democracy and elections would bring ruin to Russia, Ilyin wrote. Only “united and strong state power, dictatorial in scope and state-national in essence” could save it from chaos.
> 
> The Ilyin work Mr Putin is said to have read and reread is “What Dismemberment of Russia Would Mean for the World”, written in 1950. In it the author argues that Western powers will try “to carry out their hostile and ridiculous experiment even in the post-Bolshevik chaos, deceptively presenting it as the supreme triumph of ‘freedom’, ‘democracy’ and ‘federalism’…German propaganda has invested too much money and effort in Ukrainian separatism (and maybe not only Ukrainian)”.
> 
> In 2005, following the first popular uprising in Ukraine, known as the Orange revolution, Mr Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. Drawing on anti-Ukrainian feelings in Russia, he then set his country on a path of confrontation with the West. That same year Ilyin’s body was brought back to Russia from Switzerland, where he had died in exile in 1954. Mr Putin reportedly paid for the gravestone from his own savings. In 2009 he laid flowers on Ilyin’s grave.
> 
> Ignorance is strength​The fact that Mr Putin has embraced fascist methods and fascist thinking holds an alarming message for the rest of the world. Fascism works by creating enemies. It makes Russia the brave victim of others’ hatred even as it justifies feelings of hatred towards its real and imagined foes at home and abroad.
> 
> Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and “moderniser”, recently posted on social media: “I hate them. They are bastards and degenerates. They want us, Russia, dead…I’ll do all I can to make them disappear.” He did not bother to say who he had in mind. But Russia’s hostility has three targets: the liberal West, Ukraine and traitors at home. All of them need to take stock of what Russian fascism means.
> 
> Mr Putin has long sought to undermine Western democracies. He has supported far-right parties in Europe, such as National Rally in France, Fidesz in Hungary and the Northern League in Italy. He has interfered in American elections, hoping to help Donald Trump defeat the Democrats.
> 
> Even if fighting stops in Ukraine, the devotee of Ilyin in the Kremlin will not settle into an accommodation with Western democracies. Mr Putin and his men will do everything in their power to battle liberalism and sow discord.
> 
> For centuries Russia has been partly European, but Kirill Rogov, a political analyst, wrote recently that the war in Ukraine enabled Mr Putin to cut off that part of its identity. As long as Mr Putin is in power, Russia will build alliances with China, Iran and other anti-liberal countries. It will, as ever, be in the ideological vanguard.
> 
> The outlook for Ukraine is even more bleak. A few weeks after the start of the war Ria Novosti, a state news agency, published an article that called for the purging “of the ethnic component of self-identification among the people populating the territories of historical Malorossia and Novorossia [Ukraine and Belarus] initiated by the Soviet powers.”
> 
> Ukraine, Mr Putin said, was the source of deadly viruses, home to American-funded biological labs experimenting with strains of coronavirus and cholera. “Biological weapons were being created in direct proximity to Russia,” he warned.
> 
> On Russian state television, Ukrainians are called worms. In a recent talk show Mr Solovyov joked: “When a doctor is deworming a cat, for the doctor it is a special operation, for the worms it is a war and for the cat it is cleansing.” Margarita Simonyan, the boss of rt, a state-controlled international tv network, stated that “Ukraine cannot continue to exist.”
> 
> The purpose of the invasion is not just to capture territory but to cleanse Ukraine of its separate identity, which threatens the identity of Russia as an imperial nation. Along with its punitive forces, the Kremlin has also dispatched hundreds of schoolteachers to re-educate Ukrainian children in the occupied territories. It equates an independent sovereign Ukraine with Nazism. Either Ukraine will cease to exist as a nation state or Russia itself will be infected by the idea of emancipation that will destroy its imperial identity.
> 
> The bleakest of all is the outlook for Russia. Mr Putin did not plan on a war of attrition. He imagined that a strike on Kyiv would rapidly lead to a new regime in Ukraine and the submission of Ukrainian society to his will. So far, Mr Putin has failed to defeat Ukraine. But he has succeeded in defeating Russia.
> 
> Talk of bodily contamination and cleansing is not limited to Ukraine. Russia also contains alien elements—oyster-slurping, foie-gras-eating traitors who mentally live in the West and are infected with ideas of gender fluidity. The Russian people, Mr Putin declared in a tv address, will “simply spit them out like an insect in their mouth” leading to “a natural and necessary self-detoxification of society”.
> 
> Like Stalin, Mr Putin distrusts and fears the people. They need to be controlled, manipulated and, when necessary, suppressed. He excludes them from real decision-making. As Greg Yudin, a Russian sociologist, argues, they are needed for the ritual of elections that demonstrate the legitimacy of the ruler, but the rest of the time they should be invisible. Mr Yudin calls this attitude “people on call”.
> 
> The war changed everything. As Hitler told Goebbels in the spring of 1943, “the war…made possible for us the solution of a whole series of problems that could never have been solved in normal times”. Soon Mr Putin was able to impose de-facto military rule and censorship. He blocked Facebook, Twitter and Instagram and any remaining independent media, isolated the country from poisonous Western influence and chased anyone who objected to the war out of the country. Any public statement that challenges the Kremlin’s version of events in Ukraine is punishable by a 15-year prison sentence.
> 
> Gregory Asmolov, of King’s College London, argues this new political reality was unimaginable only months ago and is the Kremlin’s most significant achievement in the conflict. The war has enabled Mr Putin to transform Russia into what Mr Asmolov calls a “disconnective society”. He wrote that “These efforts are driven by the notion that it’s impossible to protect the internal legitimacy of the current leadership and keep citizens loyal if Russia remains relatively open and linked up to the global networked system.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Z is not for Zelensky
> 
> So far Mr Putin’s aim has been to paralyse Russian society rather than rally the crowds. The show of unity and mobilisation is achieved by television operating in the information space cleared of alternative voices. Among television viewers—mostly people over 60—more than 80% support the war. Among 18- to 24-year-olds, who get their news from the internet, it is less than half. This is perhaps why the symbolic representatives of the z-operation are not working men and women, but a babushka with a red-flag and an eight-year-old “grandson”(painted on murals and imprinted on chocolate wrappers, respectively). They are the ideal television viewers and reality-show extras.
> 
> The combination of fear and propaganda produces what Mr Rogov calls an “imposed consensus”. The state publicises opinion polls showing that the majority of Russians support the “special military operation”. The main reason people support Mr Putin is that they think everybody else does, too. The need to belong is powerful. Even when people have access to information, they “simply ignore it or rationalise it, just to avoid destroying the concept of self, country and power…created by propaganda,” notes Elena Koneva, a sociologist.
> 
> The engine of fascism does not have a reverse gear. Mr Putin cannot turn back to a reality-based brand of authoritarianism. Expansion is in its nature. It will seek to expand both geographically and into people’s private lives. As the war drags on and casualties mount, the question is whether Mr Putin can mobilise the passive majority or whether they start to grow restive. The elites in the Kremlin, the army and the security services will watch closely.
> 
> *Two plus two make four*
> Victor Klemperer, a German Jew who fought in the first world war and survived the second, wrote that “Nazism permeated the flesh and blood of the people through single words, idioms and sentence structures which were imposed on them in a million repetitions.” His book, “The Language of the Third Reich”, describes how the dissociating prefix ent- (de-) gained prominence in Germany during the war.
> 
> As Russian tanks stormed Ukraine in the small hours of February 24th, Mr Putin began his war against Ukraine with that same dissociating prefix. The goal, he said, was denatsifikatsia (de-Nazification) and demilitarizatsia (de-militarisation). Ria Novosti, the state news agency, later added that “De-Nazification inevitably will be also de-Ukrainisation.”
> 
> “Germany was almost destroyed by Nazism,” Klemperer wrote, “The task of curing it of this fatal disease is today termed ‘de-Nazification’. I hope, and indeed believe, that this dreadful word…will fade away and lead no more than a historical existence as soon as it has performed its current duty…But that won’t be for some time yet, because it is not only Nazi actions that have to vanish, but also…the typical Nazi way of thinking and its breeding-ground: the language of Nazism.”


----------



## basilio

JohnDe said:


> From the start of the war I wondered why the Russian army painted Z on all their equipment, and then I read this article on Friday night. Has all of Russia turned into a fascist state? It appears so. And worst of all, it's spreading.
> 
> I had a conversation with an older gentleman on Saturday, he believes that the world has gone to shyte, our current leaders are soft, and only the strong nations like Russia and China will survive and prosper. (Edit: when he was young he fought against communism in Europe, now he supports it).
> 
> Are we witnessing the 1930's all over again? I hope not, I don't think so, but our governments and education systems need to be proactive and ensure that history is taught so that we don't repeat it.




That was a very powerful story.  Hope other forum members have read it in full.  

How we respond to it is another question.


----------



## JohnDe

basilio said:


> That was a very powerful story.  Hope other forum members have read it in full.
> 
> How we respond to it is another question.




Drinking this at the moment, Putin Huylo


----------



## qldfrog

The bloody non muslim white serbians were not bombed enough, NATO getting ready for action again:
how dare they? nearly half russians I bet, how do they dare wanting history


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/01/kosovo-serbia-tension-nato-ukraine-russia/
		

These Serbians better get their mafia back in power and call Biden junior for some juicy brides if they want their hospitals safe..
And yes, a direct link to Ukraine/Russia..or the Oz Voice referendum...
Hypocrisy everyday


----------



## Dona Ferentes

How the C21 wars are played out. This id Ukrainian footage, but I assume the other side is doing similar.


----------



## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> How the C21 wars are played out. This id Ukrainian footage, but I assume the other side is doing similar.





They will be deployed in swarms like at the start of the movie Angel Has Fallen as well, if not already. We're behind the curve on this and need to employ undersea drones in a similar fashion.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> They will be deployed in swarms like at the start of the movie Angel Has Fallen as well, if not already. We're behind the curve on this and need to employ undersea drones in a similar fashion.



I mentioned that when we were starting sub purchase negotiation.nuclear or not, these submarines are the equivalent of cavalry before WWII 
But it is easier to buy tons of metals and talk 50y old tech that having brains and high tech manufacturing for our antiquated leaders


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Russia Is Scouring the Globe for Weapons to Use Against Ukraine​The passage of a sanctioned cargo ship from Syria to a Russian port shows how Moscow is bringing equipment home again

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tary-weapons-for-its-war-in-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg


----------



## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> Russia Is Scouring the Globe for Weapons to Use Against Ukraine​The passage of a sanctioned cargo ship from Syria to a Russian port shows how Moscow is bringing equipment home again
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tary-weapons-for-its-war-in-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg




The recent requests for a 'cease fire' from the Russians was more like a request to re-arm and get more troops ready for battle. I think Russia is in trouble, but I would never doubt their stoicism as a culture with their experiences in several major wars going back 100s of years. I'm afraid they will not give up here. Afraid for both sides.


----------



## Dona Ferentes




----------



## Dona Ferentes

Saving lives. Tough bit of machinery


----------



## Belli

It's the war I tell you.

"Russia has flagged legal action after Australian bureaucrats scuttled the construction of its new embassy building in Canberra.

Authorities have ordered the "premium" block of land near parliament house be vacated within 20 days.

In 2011, Moscow was granted approval to build a new embassy complex in the central Canberra location, to replace its ageing compound, however, the project has been beset by delays for years.

On Wednesday, the National Capital Authority (NCA) blamed Russia's failure to finish construction within an agreed three-year deadline for the decision to terminate the lease."









						Diplomatic tensions as Russia's planned replacement embassy scrapped
					

Australian bureaucrats have scuttled the construction of a new Russian embassy building in Canberra, ordering a "premium" block of land near parliament house be vacated within 20 days.




					www.abc.net.au
				




I've been past the site a couple of times.  Zilch has been done and it's looks like a construction dumping ground.


----------



## Sean K

Belli said:


> It's the war I tell you.
> 
> "Russia has flagged legal action after Australian bureaucrats scuttled the construction of its new embassy building in Canberra.
> 
> Authorities have ordered the "premium" block of land near parliament house be vacated within 20 days.
> 
> In 2011, Moscow was granted approval to build a new embassy complex in the central Canberra location, to replace its ageing compound, however, the project has been beset by delays for years.
> 
> On Wednesday, the National Capital Authority (NCA) blamed Russia's failure to finish construction within an agreed three-year deadline for the decision to terminate the lease."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Diplomatic tensions as Russia's planned replacement embassy scrapped
> 
> 
> Australian bureaucrats have scuttled the construction of a new Russian embassy building in Canberra, ordering a "premium" block of land near parliament house be vacated within 20 days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I've been past the site a couple of times.  Zilch has been done and it's looks like a construction dumping ground.




Yes, spot on. Why do we want a beefed up Russian (Chinese) spy station in Canberra right now? Once it does get built, nano-bugs will be all over it.


----------



## Belli

Sean K said:


> Once it does get built, nano-bugs will be all over it.




Ours or theirs?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

*Junior officers are least likely to survive*​


> "Of the 5701 identified Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, 966 were officers – including four generals and 34 colonels. In other words, officers constitute 17 per cent of Russian fatalities. The data show that the heaviest losses were suffered by junior officers – three times more likely to die than their subordinates.






> "We were able to reach this conclusion by comparing the numbers of confirmed losses among officers and among soldiers. Each Russian junior officer is responsible for roughly 20 soldiers. Going with this ratio, for each of the 4735 privates, sergeants and corporals confirmed dead, there should be around 230 killed junior officers. In reality, the figure is three times higher...












						Lost battalions: calculating Russia's casualties in six months of war in Ukraine
					

BBC Russian's analysis shows that junior officers are killed much more frequently than those under their command in Russia's army in Ukraine.




					bbcrussian.substack.com
				




-  _of course there is a bias here, as the grunts are regarded as cannon fodder, and less likely to make it home in a box_


----------



## Belli

For those interested, the Yale School of Management has recently released an analysis on the state of the Russian Economy. 









						Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
					

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow



					papers.ssrn.com
				




A screen shot from the report on data no longer officially released.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

URGENT & CRITICAL: Armed Forces of Ukraine are requesting that everyone go dark on posting any information, videos, photos, with regards to the Battle for Kherson. Operation Security is critical. Please spread this message across all social media channels


----------



## Dona Ferentes

small d1ck syndrome

Liz Truss, Vladolf neet QE2


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> URGENT & CRITICAL: Armed Forces of Ukraine are requesting that everyone go dark on posting any information, videos, photos, with regards to the Battle for Kherson. Operation Security is critical. Please spread this message across all social media channels
> View attachment 146109



Slava Ukraine.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Slava Ukraine.
> 
> gg



Remarkable retaking of territory in the East. At least 2,000 sq km of Kharkiv oblast regained in 4 days.

And with the amount of _materiel_ - tanks, vehicles and ammo - that has been captured, Russia has overtaken USA as the top supplier of arms to Ukraine .


----------



## Value Collector

Dona Ferentes said:


> Remarkable retaking of territory in the East. At least 2,000 sq km of Kharkiv oblast regained in 4 days.
> 
> And with the amount of _materiel_ - tanks, vehicles and ammo - that has been captured, Russia has overtaken USA as the top supplier of arms to Ukraine .



This war has proved to be very embarrassing for Russia, it really shows that besides the Nuclear threat, NATO has really had nothing to worry about Russia all these years.

The fear that Russia would one day roll through Western Europe with waves of tanks, planes, missiles and storm troopers armed with Kalashnikovs seems to be completely over stated.

Given that they haven’t even been able to defeat ukraine, if they faced with the full force of a NATO counter offensive they would be put back in their Box very quickly.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

For those who are not better than I at using the internets and televisions, just a heads up for accessing news on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. 

It is just coming up to 37 minutes after sunrise in Kyiv. Remembering that further East in Ukraine it has been daylight for over an hour

The first bulletins via twitter.com usually get posted in about 90 minutes, although Kyiv is still in information blackout for strategic, tactical and operational reasons. 

rt.com which is a Russian propaganda outfit can be accessed if you turn your vpnskies to Israel as they still allow rt to broadcast there. Quite hilarious misinformation. My grandchildren tell me Bluey is more fun. 

Telegram has many useful posters but again with the ongoing information blackout it is limited on the 
Ukraine side, although it is interesting from the Russian side as more panic settles in. Find them yeselves as my Cyrillic is ruskty. 

Slava Ukraine.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Evidently the twitter 😊 and telegram ☹️ ratio has tilted over the last few days.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> Evidently the twitter 😊 and telegram ☹️ ratio has tilted over the last few days.



An Australian Bushmaster at the frontline, the Oskil River crossing, assisting the liberation of the cousins in Ukraine.



gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

and the oblast of Kharkiv is de-russified. Week leading to 11 Sept

But critical nfrastucture (esp power) and the population centres  are still getting bombarded from across the border


----------



## JohnDe

_In London, the Ministry of Defence said earlier in an intelligence update that the Russian force at Izium “is likely increasingly isolated” and added that the capture of Kupiansk would be “a significant blow to Russia because it sits on supply routes to the Donbas front line”._​​_Kyiv appears to have taken advantage of Russia’s redeployment of some of its best troops from the northeast to the southern city of Kherson, the focus of a much-advertised Ukrainian offensive that began just over a week ago. This left Russian positions in the northeast thinly held and vulnerable. Ukraine punched through them: President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that at least 30 “settlements” had been liberated in the Kharkiv region since the offensive began on Tuesday._​​_“The Ukrainians saw an opportunity and did a very good job to seize it,” said General Sir Richard Barrons, a former British Army commander. “It’s good news they’re on the offensive, showing the Russians can be beaten. It’s very bad for Russian morale in the military and at home.”_​​_He sounded a note of caution, however. “There will be exuberance, overselling. But Russia still sits on 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory. The battle for Kherson is what really matters strategically,” he said, referring to the southern city, a gateway to Crimea and ports on the Black Sea. “This is going to go on for some time.”_​​_Sir Lawrence called Ukraine’s offensive “quite spectacular” and predicted it would have “knock-on effects” such as undermining Russian propaganda._​​*Liberators seize back towns as Russians scatter in disarray*​


----------



## Dona Ferentes

"_Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your “friendship & brotherhood” 

But history will put everything in its place. And we will be WITH gas, light, water and food... ... and WITHOUT YOU _!" 

~ @ZelenskyyUa   statement to Russia


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Recently, in liberated Kharkiv ....first apprehension/ fear, then unbridled joy when she realises they are UKR forces


----------



## finicky

I was too sickened to listen further but Jim Rickards a while ago seemed actually to be justifying Russia's invasion. Also didn't give Ukraine much of a chance. Not rational I know, to not listen to all he was saying.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

finicky said:


> I was too sickened to listen further but Jim Rickards a while ago seemed actually to be justifying Russia's invasion. Also didn't give Ukraine much of a chance. Not rational I know, to not listen to all he was saying.



Unfortunately the USA contains many Oligarchs as well, who made their fortunes in dubious ways. I prefer to get my information from reliable sources on twitter. With the smaller republics within the Russian federation erupting, Putin is in a world of pain as are his henchmen and propagandists. 






This is in no way a reflection on goats.

gg


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## Value Collector

Garpal Gumnut said:


> An Australian Bushmaster at the frontline, the Oskil River crossing, assisting the liberation of the cousins in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> gg




It has probably also spent some time in Afghanistan too.


----------



## SirRumpole

Value Collector said:


> This war has proved to be very embarrassing for Russia, it really shows that besides the Nuclear threat, NATO has really had nothing to worry about Russia all these years.
> 
> The fear that Russia would one day roll through Western Europe with waves of tanks, planes, missiles and storm troopers armed with Kalashnikovs seems to be completely over stated.
> 
> Given that they haven’t even been able to defeat ukraine, if they faced with the full force of a NATO counter offensive they would be put back in their Box very quickly.




Let's hope it lasts.

Putin will probably use Ukraine as a training ground to analyse his weaknesses and do better next time.

The most telling effects may not be military, but economic, sanctions must be hurting.


----------



## Value Collector

SirRumpole said:


> Let's hope it lasts.
> 
> Putin will probably use Ukraine as a training ground to analyse his weaknesses and do better next time.
> 
> The most telling effects may not be military, but economic, sanctions must be hurting.



I am not sure Putin will learn anything, I mean you would think that America would have learned from Vietnam, yet they still wandered into Afghanistan, and you would think Russia would have learned from their experience in Afghanistan, but here they are.

Hopefully us humans eventually learn that trade and smiley faces are better than war and hatred, in the mean time I hope Russias humiliation in ukraine continues, and Putin falls down some stairs or dies in his sleep.


----------



## JohnDe

Pressure on Putin is increasing from internally and possibly from his allies.

*Vladimir Putin in ‘deep, deep trouble’: Global affairs editor on meeting with China*​​‘Quite humiliating’: Global affairs editor John Lyons says support for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is dwindling after his meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping.​


----------



## finicky

Value Collector said:


> and Putin falls down some stairs or dies in his sleep



Too easy - people that I have known died harder than that. He's a mass murderer and a tyrant


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Dona Ferentes said:


> Remarkable retaking of territory in the East. At least 2,000 sq km of Kharkiv oblast regained in 4 days.
> 
> And with the amount of _materiel_ - tanks, vehicles and ammo - that has been captured, Russia has overtaken USA as the top supplier of arms to Ukraine .



and it became 6000 sq km; almost all of Khariv oblast in back in Ukrainian hands ...but they resisted the temptation to run on to Kreminna - that could have been a trap.

Meantime, our favourite genocidalist is making about as much sense as, well, Sergei Lavrov


> _Putin said that Russia has been “rather restrained in our response” to Ukrainian “terrorist acts [and] attempts to damage our civilian [sic] infrastructure” in a question-and-answer session with reporters following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting on September 16._



This being the temerity of Ukrainians to strike the base of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division near Valuyki, on the Oskil River and only 20km from the newly liberated territories.

And what do we find when the goons have run away? Already a mass grave at Izyum , plus


> _[t]he head of Ukraine’s National Police, Ihor Klymenko, stated that Ukrainian officials have found 10 Russian torture chambers in Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Balaklia, and Izyum_.


----------



## JohnDe

Putin declares that Russia will start partial mobilisation, increased arms production and some form of conscription, and confirming that he does not fear using nuclear weapons.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

plus 


> Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from September 23-27. The Kremlin will use the falsified results of these sham referenda to illegally annex all Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and is likely to declare unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts to be part of Russia as well...



ISW

_-  good luck with that_


----------



## Sean K

JohnDe said:


> Putin declares that Russia will start partial mobilisation, increased arms production and some form of conscription.





And planning referendums for occupied territories in the East. Once they have those parts of Ukraine 'officially' included as Russian territory any counter attack by Ukraine into those regions can be counted as an attack against Russia. If Western weapons are used, you know what happens next.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Messy. 

_Slava ukraini_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> And planning referendums for occupied territories in the East. Once they have those parts of Ukraine 'officially' included as Russian territory any counter attack by Ukraine into those regions can be counted as an attack against Russia. If Western weapons are used, you know what happens next.





Dona Ferentes said:


> Messy.
> 
> _Slava ukraini_



Indeed. 

I was doing some research on the Price of Brent and POG when they both suddenly took off north. 

I figured Vova would have had his press conference in Moss-Cow as the American cousins call it. 

I never ever thought I would see the "end" of the Russian Empire twice in my lifetime. 

Although I usually leave commentary on War to Švejk, it is tending towards that point in Texas Holdem where someone goes all in whose tells have been finally figured out.  

Time to call Vova out on his bet. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Time to call Vova out on his bet.
> 
> gg



Uncle Vova = Vladolf. Who's going to ice him?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Go to prison .... OR die


----------



## Sean K

Dona Ferentes said:


> Go to prison .... OR die
> 
> View attachment 147075




When was the last time a major power ‘mobilized’ for war? I’m not sure if Korea or Vietnam were mobilizations? Might be WW2…


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Sean K said:


> When was the last time a major power ‘mobilized’ for war? I’m not sure if Korea or Vietnam were mobilizations? Might be WW2…



Interesting he's not playing the 'long game' .... maybe Europe will get through winter? Maybe he's underestimated the blowback. (genocidalists usually do)


----------



## moXJO

Sean K said:


> When was the last time a major power ‘mobilized’ for war? I’m not sure if Korea or Vietnam were mobilizations? Might be WW2…



This is a big call by Putin. Huge ramifications.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_We are not at war with Ukraine, but with the collective West _- Russian Defense Minister #Shoigu.
_70 military and more than 200 civilian satellites, entire NATO bloc, working in the interests of_ #Ukraine - Shoigu.
.... you know what; he's right, especially about the second tweet. What did you expect, dumbass_?_


----------



## Value Collector

Sean K said:


> When was the last time a major power ‘mobilized’ for war? I’m not sure if Korea or Vietnam were mobilizations? Might be WW2…



Vietnam involved conscription, at that point I would call in mobilisation.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sean K said:


> When was the last time a major power ‘mobilized’ for war? I’m not sure if Korea or Vietnam were mobilizations? Might be WW2…





Value Collector said:


> Vietnam involved conscription, at that point I would call in mobilisation.



It is always difficult with Russia. 

Their definitions can be quite different from ours, and opaque to a non-Russian ear. 

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at the Five Eyes pow wow tonight. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

Value Collector said:


> Vietnam involved conscription, at that point I would call in mobilisation.




Yeah, we did as well. National Service. A pile of countries have compulsory service after high school too. Not sure if the connotation is the same and what other laws are brought in for the war effort. Mobilization to me means some other extraordinary powers of State. Like diverting normal civilian industry to the war effort. Not sure if Russia has done that yet.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I really don't care what Russia does, to be honest. 

It is more Beijing's reaction and involvement, if any, that is the main danger. 

This move by Putin was not unexpected and probably flagged to the West days ago from friendly cousins within the Kremlin nomenklatura.

It was actually discussed on R1 their version of " Your ABC " ( Politics for loyal babushkas ) about 3 hours before the announcement by Uncle Vova.

China is a bigger worry. The kerfuffle with Ukraine and NATO has reduced Russia to a mid range power atm. 

gg


----------



## JohnDe

For Ukraine, cheers


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The kerfuffle with Ukraine and NATO has reduced Russia to a mid range power atm.
> 
> gg



And some wags say Russia has gone from being the second most powerful military country in the world to being the second most powerful military country in Ukraine. !!

_But that ignores the sheer depth of their collective military-industrial complex_


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I really don't care what Russia does, to be honest.
> 
> It is more Beijing's reaction and involvement, if any, that is the main danger.
> 
> This move by Putin was not unexpected and probably flagged to the West days ago from friendly cousins within the Kremlin nomenklatura.
> 
> It was actually discussed on R1 their version of " Your ABC " ( Politics for loyal babushkas ) about 3 hours before the announcement by Uncle Vova.
> 
> China is a bigger worry. The kerfuffle with Ukraine and NATO has reduced Russia to a mid range power atm.
> 
> gg




This has occurred only a couple of days after the Putin/Xi meeting. Must have got permission and some sort of tacit backing. Yes, that’s more troubling if China sign on.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Sean K said:


> This has occurred only a couple of days after the Putin/Xi meeting. Must have got permission and some sort of tacit backing. Yes, that’s more troubling if China sign on.



good point


----------



## moXJO

Hopefully the months of grind has taken its toll on the Russian military. If they are resorting to nuke threats they may just be spent on the ground.

All it will do is reinforce Europe's military machine and unite the west.  China, Russia and Iran are in an anti-west bloc. Crumbling Russia would be a big strategic bonus.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Hot off the Press.

It would appear that China is not going to back Russia in a warry manner atm.



>




gg


----------



## Value Collector

Sean K said:


> Yeah, we did as well. National Service. A pile of countries have compulsory service after high school too. Not sure if the connotation is the same and what other laws are brought in for the war effort. Mobilization to me means some other extraordinary powers of State. Like diverting normal civilian industry to the war effort. Not sure if Russia has done that yet.



Yeah, but the draft in the USA was a lot different than the normal National service, they drafted 2.2 Million people during the Vietnam war, and anybody of service age could be drafted, not just people leaving high school.

The Vietnam war Era was also the high point of the modern military industrial complexes, I would say during Vietnam and the Cold War in general the USA was mobilised, but it depends on the definition I guess.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Hopefully the months of grind has taken its toll on the Russian military. If they are resorting to nuke threats they may just be spent on the ground.
> 
> All it will do is reinforce Europe's military machine and unite the west.  China, Russia and Iran are in an anti-west bloc. Crumbling Russia would be a big strategic bonus.



One thing that I have been thinking about for the past few weeks, is that for the last 30 years people have been saying that soldiers on the ground are almost obsolete, because the Air Force would quickly decimate ground forces in a real war.

But, this fight in Ukraine has shown that it really is all about ground forces still, and that it only takes ground forces to be armed with some modern portable surface to Air missiles and the opposing Air Force backs right off. Russian pilots are terrified of the western anti air weapons, they aren't willing to risk close engagements after they have received a bloody nose in the early months.


----------



## Value Collector

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hot off the Press.
> 
> It would appear that China is not going to back Russia in a warry manner atm.
> 
> 
> 
> gg



do you have a link, I can't find the article


----------



## Sean K

Value Collector said:


> One thing that I have been thinking about for the past few weeks, is that for the last 30 years people have been saying that soldiers on the ground are almost obsolete, because the Air Force would quickly decimate ground forces in a real war.
> 
> But, this fight in Ukraine has shown that it really is all about ground forces still, and that it only takes ground forces to be armed with some modern portable surface to Air missiles and the opposing Air Force backs right off. Russian pilots are terrified of the western anti air weapons, they aren't willing to risk close engagements after they have received a bloody nose in the early months.




Yep. Russia has hardly used its air force or navy for some reason. Initially it was for surprise, (and because hardly anyone was told they were going to war)  but then I think it was preservation of major pieces of equipment and to not cause too much collateral damage. Plus, don’t discount more significant air defence systems provided to Ukraine that haven’t been advertised. Likewise anti-ship missiles. Were they really launched from Ukraine? Hmmm


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Value Collector said:


> One thing that I have been thinking about for the past few weeks, is that for the last 30 years people have been saying that soldiers on the ground are almost obsolete, because the Air Force would quickly decimate ground forces in a real war.
> 
> But, this fight in Ukraine has shown that it really is all about ground forces still, and that it only takes ground forces to be armed with some modern portable surface to Air missiles and the opposing Air Force backs right off. Russian pilots are terrified of the western anti air weapons, they aren't willing to risk close engagements after they have received a bloody nose in the early months.




Did we really need to wait for Ukraine to show this after multiple armies of goat farmers with AK-47s held off the almighty (especially relative to Russia) USAF in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc not to mention the Houthis in Yemen who have been incessantly crushing the US backed Saudi "air force"?


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> One thing that I have been thinking about for the past few weeks, is that for the last 30 years people have been saying that soldiers on the ground are almost obsolete, because the Air Force would quickly decimate ground forces in a real war.
> 
> But, this fight in Ukraine has shown that it really is all about ground forces still, and that it only takes ground forces to be armed with some modern portable surface to Air missiles and the opposing Air Force backs right off. Russian pilots are terrified of the western anti air weapons, they aren't willing to risk close engagements after they have received a bloody nose in the early months.



Big takeaway is that you can never have enough high tech missiles. Also that cheap drones with 60mm mortars  are a massive demoralising tool.

Some huge lessons for Australia given our troops numbers.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Value Collector said:


> do you have a link, I can't find the article



From Twitter AFP Account.

gg


----------



## Value Collector

InsvestoBoy said:


> Did we really need to wait for Ukraine to show this after multiple armies of goat farmers with AK-47s held off the almighty (especially relative to Russia) USAF in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc not to mention the Houthis in Yemen who have been incessantly crushing the US backed Saudi "air force"?



Afghanistan was a very different engagement, it was hard locating the enemy.

But AirPower was used to great affect in Afghanistan and in very close low altitude combat too, but if the Afghans had a steady supply of stingers, I doubt we would have been able to rely on air support as much as we did.


----------



## Telamelo

Putin’s plan: What does partial mobilisation mean?
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that will see 300,000 reservists called to fight in Ukraine.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Value Collector

Sean K said:


> Yep. Russia has hardly used its air force or navy for some reason. Initially it was for surprise, (and because hardly anyone was told they were going to war)  but then I think it was preservation of major pieces of equipment and to not cause too much collateral damage. Plus, don’t discount more significant air defence systems provided to Ukraine that haven’t been advertised. Likewise anti-ship missiles. We’re they really launched from Ukraine? Hmmm



I found this document explaining how the Russian military works, sounds to me that their “reserve forces” are not at all what we would class as reserves.

Basically their army relies on conscripting new soldiers twice a year between the age of 18-27 and making them serve for a year (I bit like national service).

After that initial year they are transferred to reserve forces until the turn 45, but don’t receive any more training.

These “reservists”, are the ones being called up now that their “contract army” (the full time guys) have suffered big losses.

So they might boast about have large reserve forces, but they aren’t the same as western army reservists, they include people that haven’t done any military training for over 20 years. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> I found this document explaining how the Russian military works, sounds to me that their “reserve forces” are not at all what we would class as reserves.
> 
> Basically their army relies on conscripting new soldiers twice a year between the age of 18-27 and making them serve for a year (I bit like national service).
> 
> After that initial year they are transferred to reserve forces until the turn 45, but don’t receive any more training.
> 
> These “reservists”, are the ones being called up now that their “contract army” (the full time guys) have suffered big losses.
> 
> So they might boast about have large reserve forces, but they aren’t the same as western army reservists, they include people that haven’t done any military training for over 20 years.
> 
> https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization



Most don't fight either. They drop their gear and leg it.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Most don't fight either. They drop their gear and leg it.



Good, hopefully they keep leaving lots of gear for the Ukrainian army.


----------



## Belli

moXJO said:


> Most don't fight either. They drop their gear and leg it.






Value Collector said:


> Good, hopefully they keep leaving lots of gear for the Ukrainian army.




It's bizarre.  Recruiting those who may have had some service, say, 10 years ago, given a few weeks basic training (if that) going in against combat hardened troops who are able to be rotated out of the field to give them R&R?  Doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

When even North Korea is denying support what chance is there for the survival of Putin?









						North Korea denies exporting weapons to Russia during Ukraine invasion
					

A North Korean official tells the US to stop making "reckless remarks" and "keep its mouth shut" after it said Russia was purchasing weapons from North Korea for its invasion of Ukraine.




					www.abc.net.au
				




gg


----------



## Value Collector

Belli said:


> It's bizarre.  Recruiting those who may have had some service, say, 10 years ago, given a few weeks basic training (if that) going in against combat hardened troops who are able to be rotated out of the field to give them R&R?  Doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me.



Desperate times in the Russian military I think.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

nice one:

_Ukrainian student of the Kyiv Polytechnic Institute Ihor Klymenko received the prestigious international award Global Student Prize, in UN week in New York.

 His invention? a mine-clearing robot Quadcopter Mines Detector _


----------



## Value Collector

Dona Ferentes said:


> _His invention? a mine-clearing robot Quadcopter Mines Detector _





Nice, I wonder how it handles trip wires on those Pomz mines 😅.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## JohnDe

“Many in Russia fear a "partial mobilization" of the military is the first step in a move that would see more and more men fight – and die – in Ukraine. Some have tried to escape and others have even dared to protest.”


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> Nice, I wonder how it handles trip wires on those Pomz mines 😅.



I have a feeling I should be very happy that I have no idea what they are. 😲


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> I have a feeling I should be very happy that I have no idea what they are. 😲



They are nasty little victim operated mines, actuated by a trip wire, with a kill radius of up to 10 metres. they have a built in stake and are normally pushed into the ground, but can be cable tied to trees, fences, furniture etc.

The trip wire can be set up to be tight, or it can be loosely strung through grass making it almost impossible to see but easy to trip up in.


----------



## JohnDe




----------



## Dona Ferentes

the border between Russia and Georgia:


----------



## Belli

What interests me is the recruitment age is up to 60!  Many walking frames travelling to the front toting their vodka cabinets behind.

Heck, 300,000+ recruits.  One week of rifle training and then equiped with 1970 rifles = mass slaughter.

Insufficient:

Ballistic vests
Kevlar helmets
Night vision optics
Battle dress
Winter clothing
Tents

Read somewhere (forgot the link.  Sorry) out one group of 30 "volunteer" prisioners recruited by Wagner only 15 survived the first encounter.


----------



## finicky

💡 If/when this quietens down Australia should head-hunt on irresistible terms some of the top Ukrainian miltary strategists to analyse our defenses against China.


----------



## sptrawler

Belli said:


> Read somewhere (forgot the link.  Sorry) out one group of 30 "volunteer" prisioners recruited by Wagner only 15 survived the first encounter.



The survivors get another turn the next day, it's called on the job training.


----------



## qldfrog

finicky said:


> 💡 If/when this quietens down Australia should head-hunt on irresistible terms some of the top Ukrainian miltary strategists to analyse our defenses against China.



Call Washington and London 😂


----------



## Dona Ferentes

you might think that Israel could reverse its decision not to supply their (very effective) Iron Dome defense system to Ukraine, at the very least to test it against the new spate of Iranian 'kamikaze' drones that have recently been supplied to the Russians. This would be a good bit of tech insurance, IMO, given the stated "_Death to Israel_" stuff the mullahs come out with.


----------



## noirua

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Unfortunately the USA contains many Oligarchs as well, who made their fortunes in dubious ways. I prefer to get my information from reliable sources on twitter. With the smaller republics within the Russian federation erupting, Putin is in a world of pain as are his henchmen and propagandists.
> 
> View attachment 146764
> 
> 
> This is in no way a reflection on goats.
> 
> gg











						German Police Raid Residence of Russian Oligarch Alisher Usmanov; Tax Evasion and Money Laundering Suspected - OCCRP
					

The raid follows months of investigation into the sanctioned oligarch’s suspicious financial transactions and failure to file tax returns.




					www.occrp.org
				



Outside of Russia, Usmanov is well known for acquiring a major stake in the U.K.’s Arsenal Football Club and for his investments in Apple and Facebook




Usmanov’s villa near Lake Tegernsee.





Usmanov’s personal Airbus A-340 jet.




The Dilbar has two helipads and 60 cabins and is one of the largest yachts in the world.


----------



## Value Collector

finicky said:


> 💡 If/when this quietens down Australia should head-hunt on irresistible terms some of the top Ukrainian miltary strategists to analyse our defenses against China.



I think the USA are providing a lot of intel and advice to the Ukrainian Army, so we should already have the benefit of the strategists behind the Ukraines.

On the topic of Military strategy, the USA/Pentagon must be loving this conflict from an academic perspective, it’s like the best war game / training exercise they could imagine where they get to put the Russian Army to the test in real life situations and monitor all their strengths and weaknesses.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

ICW always provides a measured view on things, raising interesting points, all gleaned from publicly available information. Today's effort drills down to the shortcomings with a* campaign assessment special edition [that] focuses on Russian military mobilization efforts.*






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in Ukraine. The “partial mobilization” he ordered on September 21 will generate additional f




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## JohnDe

European countries becoming less reliant to Russian fuel blackmail.

_*Baltic Pipe: Norway-Poland gas pipeline opens in key move to cut dependency on Russia*_​​_Leaders from Poland, Norway and Denmark have attended a ceremony to mark the opening of the new Baltic Pipe, a key stage in the drive to wean Poland and Europe off Russian gas._​​_The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Norwegian shelf via Denmark and through the Baltic Sea to Poland. It is the centrepiece of a Polish strategy to diversify away from Russia that began years before Moscow’s February invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis._​​_The flows from Norway along with supplies via liquefied gas terminals are central to Poland's plan. The country was cut off from Russian gas supplies in April, allegedly for refusing to pay in roubles._​


----------



## JohnDe

Baltic Sea bubbles as Europe claims 'sabotage' on major undersea gas pipeline


----------



## basilio

The Russians are having trouble finding the 300,000 fit young cannon fodder requirements for their next push into Ukraine.

Many of them are fleeing the country to Georgia.

So. Simple Russian answer. Set up an enlistment centre at the Georgian border and conscript the fleerers into the army on the spot..

Be a shame if these enlistment centres were torched out like a number of others around Russia.









						Satellite images show queues out of Russia stretching for kilometres
					

As Russian men line up for kilometres at border crossings to avoid President Vladimir Putin's mobilisation efforts, some have reportedly been issued draft notices at the Georgian border.




					www.abc.net.au
				












						Arson attacks on enlistment offices spike after Putin starts mobilization
					

A rash of fires broke out at Russian enlistment centers and government buildings in the wake of Wednesday's partial mobilization announcement.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes

The results of fake referendum in the occupied parts of Ukraine:
#Luhansk Obl. - 98.42% in favour of joining Russia 
#Donetsk Obl. - 99.23% in favour
#Zaporizhzhia Obl. - 93.11% in favour
#Kherson Obl. - 87.05% in favour 

_...and yet no spontaneous expressions of joy breaking out in the streets!_


----------



## againsthegrain

Dona Ferentes said:


> The results of fake referendum in the occupied parts of Ukraine:
> #Luhansk Obl. - 98.42% in favour of joining Russia
> #Donetsk Obl. - 99.23% in favour
> #Zaporizhzhia Obl. - 93.11% in favour
> #Kherson Obl. - 87.05% in favour
> 
> _...and yet no spontaneous expressions of joy breaking out in the streets!_



seems a bit low, no 101%?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Great day to announce a victory/ annexation, Vladolf:

Situation around Lyman - 30 Sep 11:00 local time:
- UA forces liberated Yampil and advancing north
- RU troops are reportedly abandoning its positions in Drobysheve
- The only exit route from Lyman is within the firing range of UA forces
- estimated 3,000 RU troops plus LNR/ DNR in the '_cauldron_'


----------



## sptrawler

My guess Putin is going to get out, or get desperate.
The U.S by all reports, has given Putin a heads up, as to how far they are behind, on the weapons front.
Putin has told Xi, Xi has gone well it isn't looking good for you Vlad, let us know how it goes.
Just my two cents worth.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Dona Ferentes said:


> Great day to announce a victory/ annexation, Vladolf:
> 
> Situation around Lyman



.
.


----------



## noirua

Australia imposes further sanctions on Russia
					

Australia has imposed further sanctions on Russia for its continued military aggression against Ukraine.  Financial sanctions and travel bans will be imposed on another 28 Russians, including senior officials in President Vladimir Putin's regime.




					www.skynews.com.au


----------



## Value Collector

The video shows some big weaknesses in Russian tank design.


----------



## againsthegrain

Value Collector said:


> The video shows some big weaknesses in Russian tank design.




very interesting, the same author has a video on efficiency of the himars vs russian missiles and artillery. 
It seems its a repeating theme,  Russians have really fallen behind in the last 20-30 years and their weapons are outdated and not accurate. The second theme seems to be the thinking, russian soldiers and personell are disposable therefore not much is invested on training which also hinders efficiency.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Seen similar, elsewhere, but that was succinct, so thanks. The HIMARS vid, which came through as the next click, was also worth the 8 minutes.

Their tech seems to have fallen behind; drones are an example. Orlan was almost completely assembled from Jap optics and TI chips. And now RU using Iranian 'loitering munitions'.


----------



## Value Collector

againsthegrain said:


> very interesting, the same author has a video on efficiency of the himars vs russian missiles and artillery.
> It seems its a repeating theme,  Russians have really fallen behind in the last 20-30 years and their weapons are outdated and not accurate. The second theme seems to be the thinking, russian soldiers and personell are disposable therefore not much is invested on training which also hinders efficiency.



This might be the Himar video you guys are talking about.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

The Crimea bridge .... reports suggest a truck bomb.  Roadways collapsed and conveniently a train with fuel tankers sort of caught fire. Oops.


----------



## qldfrog

'Close to the limit': The US is running out of essential weapons to send to Ukraine
					

Washington is "learning lessons" from the conflict about ammunition needs in a great power war, which are "far greater" than expected, a US military official says.




					www.abc.net.au
				



Strangely quickly out of top news..
A few gems in it.basically it is an all out war on Russia via Ukrainian deaths
Also the fact that the US weapons were already there before the "invasion"...
Damned does not fit the narrative..out


----------



## divs4ever

frog , you and i  are old enough to know what propaganda is ( Vietnam , East Timor  the first incident )  dig back to WW2  and see some of the stuff the UK did about Adolf  ( later to be revived to 'control a virus ' )

 hint:- the Hunter laptop ( the other one )


----------



## bohemian

qldfrog said:


> 'Close to the limit': The US is running out of essential weapons to send to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Washington is "learning lessons" from the conflict about ammunition needs in a great power war, which are "far greater" than expected, a US military official says.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Strangely quickly out of top news..
> A few gems in it.basically it is an all out war on Russia via Ukrainian deaths
> Also the fact that the US weapons were already there before the "invasion"...
> Damned does not fit the narrative..out



Of course American weapons were in Ukraine they have been fighting Russian separatists for 8 years. Remember how Putin's pal withheld US military aid to Ukraine for 55days until he received a favour? He got impeached for doing that.


----------



## qldfrog

bohemian said:


> Of course American weapons were in Ukraine they have been fighting Russian separatists for 8 years. Remember how Putin's pal withheld US military aid to Ukraine for 55days until he received a favour? He got impeached for doing that.



But this is full admission in a woke organ.
Soon we might even get some shards of truth😁


----------



## bluekelah

Belli said:


> It's bizarre.  Recruiting those who may have had some service, say, 10 years ago, given a few weeks basic training (if that) going in against combat hardened troops who are able to be rotated out of the field to give them R&R?  Doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me.



the reservists are to man the backline positions supplying the frontline which has been done by many of the initial 200k frontline soldiers. so now instead of a small force engaging in the frontlines, the actual trained forces in the backlines can now move forward to engage in the frontlines as their support roles are taken over by the reservists.

Looks like things are escalating. methinks getting more likely US will have to get into a conflict soon to shift attention away from their local inflation problems.


----------



## noirua

Russia appoints new military commander after Ukraine setbacks
					

The Kremlin appointed General Sergey Surovikin as the overall leader of Russian troops in Ukraine on Saturday, after weeks of battlefield losses.




					www.euronews.com
				



Russia appointed a new commander on Saturday to lead its troops in Ukraine after suffering a series of military setbacks over the past weeks.

Sergey Surovikin, a general, previously led Russian forces in Syria. Here he was accused of using brutal and controversial military tactics, such as the indiscriminate bombing of anti-government strongholds. 
Surovikin has a shady past, serving time in prison twice for allegedly selling weapons and then leading a military column against protesters during the 1991 coup, which resulted in three deaths.


----------



## noirua

Sergey Surovikin - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				








General of the Army
Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin


----------



## Value Collector

qldfrog said:


> 'Close to the limit': The US is running out of essential weapons to send to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Washington is "learning lessons" from the conflict about ammunition needs in a great power war, which are "far greater" than expected, a US military official says.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Strangely quickly out of top news..
> A few gems in it.basically it is an all out war on Russia via Ukrainian deaths
> Also the fact that the US weapons were already there before the "invasion"...
> Damned does not fit the narrative..out



The USA has had military bases in Europe for decades, of course they have weapons there, not to mention that they have permanent daily military logistics flights connecting the USA with Germany, so can transport military equipment to Europe at the drop of a hat.


----------



## Value Collector

For anyone interested in the logistics of the US armed forces, and in particular their connections with Europe, and how they support their large permanent military presence there.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war - LessWrong
					

Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post…




					www.lesswrong.com
				




1 in 6 chance of nuclear war, according to this dude.

Also, Elon (who obviously has incredible foresight), tweeting that the probability of nuclear war is rising rapidly.

How does it end?  Or is modern warfare designed to transfer money to the elites who own the MIC in both Russia and the US?  Keep it going - keep shifting taxpayer funds into the 'military'.  Conspiracy theories around modern warfare are compelling, to me anyway.


----------



## Smurf1976

Value Collector said:


> The video shows some big weaknesses in Russian tank design.



Having the crew literally sitting on the ammunition inside the body of the tank.

Hmm... what could possibly go wrong with that?


----------



## qldfrog

Smurf1976 said:


> Having the crew literally sitting on the ammunition inside the body of the tank.
> 
> Hmm... what could possibly go wrong with that?



Realistically, whether you are sitting on these or 2m away(max) does not make any difference.
Tanks, once breached,are over.even a single bullet once in the habitacle ricochets and ravages all.
Tank crews are fodder,and have been in all wars since WWII.
A new Russian command will see escalation and the US happy as this has been the aim since the start.
 i somewhat would advice Angelina Jolie and the lines of PM and Presidents  taking the train to Kiev might not be a good idea anymore.
We are heading straight to a nuclear war, UN is absent, and populations sheeps.
Sad state of mankind


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> We are heading straight to a nuclear war, UN is absent, and populations sheeps.
> Sad state of mankind




The UN seems to be good for low level stuff not involving the P5 but it is a monumental failure when any of them are the transgressor. Adding Japan and Germany and majority vote for international security council action might be a solution, but could also be the unravelling of the entire beast.


----------



## Value Collector

qldfrog said:


> Realistically, whether you are sitting on these or 2m away(max) does not make any difference.
> Tanks, once breached,are over.even a single bullet once in the habitacle ricochets and ravages all.
> Tank crews are fodder,and have been in all wars since WWII.
> A new Russian command will see escalation and the US happy as this has been the aim since the start.
> i somewhat would advice Angelina Jolie and the lines of PM and Presidents  taking the train to Kiev might not be a good idea anymore.
> We are heading straight to a nuclear war, UN is absent, and populations sheeps.
> Sad state of mankind



Having the ammo in a separate, hermetically sealed box can prevent a sympathetic detonation in the event the main compartment is hit with something. 

Of course if the Ammo explodes the tank is gone, but with good design you can lower that chance greatly. 

I am pretty sure the UK anti missile would not work on a modern Abrahams tank, when the hatches are shut, because them are sealed and pressurised.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> The UN seems to be good for low level stuff not involving the P5 but it is a monumental failure when any of them are the transgressor. Adding Japan and Germany and majority vote for international security council action might be a solution, but could also be the unravelling of the entire beast.



UN:
A majority does not mean right..look at Hitler elections if anyone disagree
I think the best way would be a kind of split between 3 blocks
US/west , china/russia and maybe india brazil etc 3rd group, each with no veto but majority required to pass a resolution.
Realistically hard to achieve, but listening to US and parotting EU one side vs. China and paid friendly countries is not exactly helping fairness or mankind.
Maybe there is no solution.


----------



## Value Collector

@Smurf1976 @qldfrog 

Here is a video of the Ammo is an American tanks “blow out compartment” catching fire and burning at high intensity.

You can see that the crew survive and escape before it explodes, however if that ammo fire was underneath the gunners seat, he would be instantly fried.





At the 8 minute mark of this video it talks about the ammo compartment and the blow of panels.


----------



## bluekelah

Looks like Russia is getting serious and sending a message for the Crimea bridge incident, they finally started to hit critical infrastructure like water and electricity, war should be over in a couple weeks if Kyiv doesnt have water supply and have no way to truck it in.









						'There will be others': Russia issues warning after series of deadly attacks on Ukraine cities
					

Russia warns of more attacks as Ukraine is hit hard on a day where Vladimir Putin responds to explosion of Crimea bridge with extreme force.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## againsthegrain

bluekelah said:


> Looks like Russia is getting serious and sending a message for the Crimea bridge incident, they finally started to hit critical infrastructure like water and electricity, war should be over in a couple weeks if Kyiv doesnt have water supply and have no way to truck it in.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'There will be others': Russia issues warning after series of deadly attacks on Ukraine cities
> 
> 
> Russia warns of more attacks as Ukraine is hit hard on a day where Vladimir Putin responds to explosion of Crimea bridge with extreme force.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au




Why wait 6 months and lose 50-80k troops if its that easy?


----------



## Smurf1976

Value Collector said:


> Of course if the Ammo explodes the tank is gone, but with good design you can lower that chance greatly.



I’m no expert on tanks but I’m seeing some similarities with the petrol in a car.

Can’t totally avoid the risk but the detail of where it's stored and immediate surroundings (eg ignition sources in the event of an incident) can reduce the chance of the car going up in flames. You don’t put the petrol tank directly above the engine* for example, that’s technically easy but asking for trouble and you don't mount it on the front of the car so it's the first thing to be hit in an accident. Etc. With sensible placement the risk isn't eliminated but it's reduced.

I'm thinking along similar lines for ammunition in military tanks. Having the crew literally sitting on it seems like an unnecessarily dangerous way of doing it. 

*Though there's at least one car that does indeed have the petrol tank mounted above the engine. You pop the bonnet to fill up yes, putting fuel straight into the tank much like filling a mower etc. It came from a communist country yes, so perhaps a bit of a theme there.


----------



## Value Collector

Smurf1976 said:


> I’m no expert on tanks but I’m seeing some similarities with the petrol in a car.
> 
> Can’t totally avoid the risk but the detail of where it's stored and immediate surroundings (eg ignition sources in the event of an incident) can reduce the chance of the car going up in flames. You don’t put the petrol tank directly above the engine* for example, that’s technically easy but asking for trouble and you don't mount it on the front of the car so it's the first thing to be hit in an accident. Etc. With sensible placement the risk isn't eliminated but it's reduced.
> 
> I'm thinking along similar lines for ammunition in military tanks. Having the crew literally sitting on it seems like an unnecessarily dangerous way of doing it.
> 
> *Though there's at least one car that does indeed have the petrol tank mounted above the engine. You pop the bonnet to fill up yes, putting fuel straight into the tank much like filling a mower etc. It came from a communist country yes, so perhaps a bit of a theme there.



One last 35 second video for those interested, it shows the blast door of the Ammo bay opening and shutting as the crew load the gun.

It then shows the interior of the tank remains safe as the ammo burns.


----------



## bluekelah

againsthegrain said:


> Why wait 6 months and lose 50-80k troops if its that easy?



Well I guess the Russians wanted initially to limit damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and to ukrainians/Russians living in ukraine. Their main aim was to stop Ukrainian application to join NATO so nukes would not be moved into ukraine. 

As I mentioned when all this first began the Russians should have just turned off kyiv and kharkiv water supply and it be over in a week or so rather than do a gentle invasion.  telecommunications and electricity as well would have helped. I found it comical when Tesla sent in starlink hardware to ukraine, lol...

I guess russians are going ahead with a more normal air bombing plan now as their supply lines have been hit.  So yeah unless nato sends troops into ukraine, I don't see how people and troops can survive in the capital cities without proper critical water supplies.


----------



## greggles

bluekelah said:


> rather than do a gentle invasion.




Yes, those gentle Russians. Gently flattening cities with artillery shells, gently summarily executing civilians, gently raping Ukrainian women and children, gently committing genocide.


----------



## Telamelo

bluekelah said:


> Well I guess the Russians wanted initially to limit damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and to ukrainians/Russians living in ukraine. Their main aim was to stop Ukrainian application to join NATO so nukes would not be moved into ukraine.
> 
> As I mentioned when all this first began the Russians should have just turned off kyiv and kharkiv water supply and it be over in a week or so rather than do a gentle invasion.  telecommunications and electricity as well would have helped. I found it comical when Tesla sent in starlink hardware to ukraine, lol...
> 
> I guess russians are going ahead with a more normal air bombing plan now as their supply lines have been hit.  So yeah unless nato sends troops into ukraine, I don't see how people and troops can survive in the capital cities without proper critical water supplies.



Kyiv already hit with 90 missile strikes thus far - what did Ukraine expect after rupturing Nord stream gas pipeline followed by Crimea-Russia bridge explosion 💥

This has unfortunately escalated war conflict dramatically & ominously, new Russian General in charge Surovikin is old school & ruthless/has no fear etc. He's been told to do whatever it takes to bring Ukraine to it's knees.

I fear the arrogance of the West will further provoke Russia into using nuclear weapons & then all hell is unleashed on humanity with devastating consequences. War & more threats of war & retaliation etc. sadly won't bring about a peaceful solution.


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> Why wait 6 months and lose 50-80k troops if its that easy?



Because i truly believe putin was not planning initially to flatten Ukraine.
I know many here have no idea but Ukrainian and Russian differences are minimal.it is nearly a civil war definitively was one in Donbass Crimea.
Does anyone really believe Russia could not have bombed the railway lines to Kiev in the last 6 months..you remember the ferrying of Angelina Jolie et all the so called presidents and PM there?
The US has wedged a total war so far using Ukraine and its population.Putin was not yet doing that, probably due to deals with China beforehand imho.
 The so called supermaket bombing etc was all BS, now they might become real.Poor Ukrainians..
all that for dinosaur deep state thinkings who are too weak to attack China and for Biden's son pocket money.
Yes we might see a new phase.during this winter.
gas reserve are burning quickly in Europe and 30% of french service stations were empty yesterday....


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Mick Ryan usually provides a good take on the_ command and control _system, based on military practice and principles

His website and twitter feeds are frequent; this piece is from the ABC









						Putin's revenge is playing out on the streets of Kyiv — but he keeps repeating a crucial error
					

Throughout the war, Vladimir Putin has constantly failed to align his political objectives for Ukraine with the military means required to achieve them. Now he's finding out how his mistakes will haunt Russia, writes Mick Ryan.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## bluekelah

greggles said:


> Yes, those gentle Russians. Gently flattening cities with artillery shells, gently summarily executing civilians, gently raping Ukrainian women and children, gently committing genocide.




When the war first started I saw videos of American TV crew who were due to interview Ukrainian airbase troops but ended up fliming Russian troops taking over. Russian troops allowed them to be present and do filming. Didn't look like a real WAR type situation.

Then there were videos of Ukrainian village folk standing in front of russian tanks to stop them etc..

Looked pretty much like scrappy guerilla type fighting everywhere.

Remember the long lines of tanks and trucks supposedly in a traffic jam on the road to kyiv ?

Didn't really look like a real war type situation.

Main thing there was still internet and electricity and water in the cities in a supposedly war situation. So yeah looked pretty gentle. 


Recent day missile strikes etc. Look much more like getting into a war situation.


----------



## greggles

bluekelah said:


> When the war first started I saw videos of American TV crew who were due to interview Ukrainian airbase troops but ended up fliming Russian troops taking over. Russian troops allowed them to be present and do filming. Didn't look like a real WAR type situation.
> 
> Then there were videos of Ukrainian village folk standing in front of russian tanks to stop them etc..
> 
> Looked pretty much like scrappy guerilla type fighting everywhere.
> 
> Remember the long lines of tanks and trucks supposedly in a traffic jam on the road to kyiv ?
> 
> Didn't really look like a real war type situation.
> 
> Main thing there was still internet and electricity and water in the cities in a supposedly war situation. So yeah looked pretty gentle.
> 
> 
> Recent day missile strikes etc. Look much more like getting into a war situation.




Sounds like you were watching Russian state media, not the brutal genocidal war Putin has been waging.


----------



## greggles

Those gentle Russian rascals.



When this war is eventually over and Russian forces are expelled from Ukrainian lands, every single Russian government asset outside of Russia should be seized and sold with the funds generated paid to Ukraine as war reparations so they can rebuild their country. Compensation should also be paid to the families of every Ukranian killed (military of civilian) as a result of Russian aggression.


----------



## Telamelo

greggles said:


> Those gentle Russian rascals.
> 
> 
> 
> When this war is eventually over and Russian forces are expelled from Ukrainian lands, every single Russian government asset outside of Russia should be seized and sold with the funds generated paid to Ukraine as war reparations so they can rebuild their country. Compensation should also be paid to the families of every Ukranian killed (military of civilian) as a result of Russian aggression.




RE: "When this war is eventually over and Russian forces are expelled from Ukrainian lands" 

What makes you so sure that will eventuate/be the case !?!?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Telamelo said:


> RE: "When this war is eventually over and Russian forces are expelled from Ukrainian lands"
> 
> What makes you so sure that will eventuate/be the case !?!?



I think when you're a spokesman for the Ukrainian government, nothing less is expected.


----------



## Value Collector

Telamelo said:


> What makes you so sure that will eventuate/be the case !?!?



History. 

If the USA couldn’t defeat the Afghans or Vietnamese, what makes you think the Russians can defeat the Ukraines? 

The Ukraines are fighting for their lives and their family. What is the average 19 year old Russian fighting for?


----------



## greggles

Telamelo said:


> RE: "When this war is eventually over and Russian forces are expelled from Ukrainian lands"
> 
> What makes you so sure that will eventuate/be the case !?!?




Well the war has definitely turned in Ukraine's favour recently and I am hoping they will be able to keep the momentum going. I also hope that Ukraine can get the upper hand over forces that have comitted so many war crimes against them. I would also like to see the Putin regime come to an end.


----------



## bluekelah

greggles said:


> Sounds like you were watching Russian state media, not the brutal genocidal war Putin has been waging.



Nah I watch too much youtube, youtubers are usually the ones showing whats happening on the ground, Just like before covid hit australia, if you watched youtube the chinese students were already uploading videos of crowded hospitals etc from an unknown winter flu even in  jan2020 period and talking about how their hospitals were overcrowded with a mystery flu virus since OCT2019.

usually you can catch those live footage and videos before youtube censors them away. 
There was a news channel WION which reports fairly on the happenings in the war but youtube shut them down for having some reports that sounded pro-russian but in the end had to put them back on as those reports were the same as what all the other media outlets were reporting..

There's gonna be death and destruction in war, ridiculous propaganda on both side etc.. Usually in the end victors write the story. We'll see, but I believe until the nuclear threat to Russia issue is resolved, Russia will keep pushing into Ukraine, just like what happened in 1960s with the Cuban missile crisis


----------



## bigdog

Ukraine should move their Russian prisoners to locations where Russia are bombing and sending missiles to!

Would be embarrassing for Russia when Ukraiine reports that Russian prisoners were killed!


----------



## Value Collector

bigdog said:


> Ukraine should move their Russian prisoners to locations where Russia are bombing and sending missiles to!
> 
> Would be embarrassing for Russia when Ukraiine reports that Russian prisoners were killed!



That’s actually a war crime under the Geneva convention and Rome statute.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> That’s actually a war crime under the Geneva convention and Rome statute.



Civilian cities would be fine. Just the military installations I thought?


----------



## Belli

FFS, really?


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Civilian cities would be fine. Just the military installations I thought?



Mmm, I am not sure 🤔.

I think that would be a grey area that no rational military commander would want to step into, it’s also hard to achieve practically.

I mean POW’s are still prisoners, they take manpower and infrastructure to contain and look after, and can be dangerous. Distributing the POWs around a city could be a logistical nightmare.


----------



## greggles

Make no mistake, this is a war of genocide against Ukraine and the Russians no longer even attempt to disguise their intentions. This is why Russia must be defeated at any cost.


----------



## Value Collector

Belli said:


> FFS, really?




Holy cow!!! He must have thought they were dummies. Should have called in the Sappers to double check.


----------



## SirRumpole

qldfrog said:


> UN:
> A majority does not mean right..look at Hitler elections if anyone disagree
> I think the best way would be a kind of split between 3 blocks
> US/west , china/russia and maybe india brazil etc 3rd group, each with no veto but majority required to pass a resolution.
> Realistically hard to achieve, but listening to US and parotting EU one side vs. China and paid friendly countries is not exactly helping fairness or mankind.
> Maybe there is no solution.




I would say all the Western countries should withdraw from the UN and form their own organisation.

That way they can't be vetoed by Russia , China or other despots.

The UN is a slave to China and the Arabs.


----------



## qldfrog

SirRumpole said:


> I would say all the Western countries should withdraw from the UN and form their own organisation.
> 
> That way they can't be vetoed by Russia , China or other despots.
> 
> The UN is a slave to China and the Arabs.



And we could bomb then happily bomb Serbia, let Armenia be wipedout and then light candles and add a flag on FB after the next islamist bomb in Paris London, or for a change Sydney or Washington .
The world would be wonderfull, except the UN is actually the tool of the woke/Reset.


----------



## Sean K

Belli said:


> FFS, really?





Russian military recruiters have been instructed to prioritise eye testing for armoured corps drivers.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Mmm, I am not sure 🤔.
> 
> I think that would be a grey area that no rational military commander would want to step into, it’s also hard to achieve practically.
> 
> I mean POW’s are still prisoners, they take manpower and infrastructure to contain and look after, and can be dangerous. Distributing the POWs around a city could be a logistical nightmare.



Probably better logistics then rebuilding 
It would have to be higher ranking Russians as Russia doesn't seem to care that much about its troops.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Probably better logistics then rebuilding
> It would have to be higher ranking Russians as Russia doesn't seem to care that much about its troops.



The Global population in general is on Ukraines side, I think it’s best of them to continue with the good guy routine though.

Also, Ukraine is trying to entice the Russians to surrender, Using them as human shields might not be the best idea.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> The Global population in general is on Ukraines side, I think it’s best of them to continue with the good guy routine though.
> 
> Also, Ukraine is trying to entice the Russians to surrender, Using them as human shields might not be the best idea.



I'm worried the global population is more on Russias side.
China 
North Korea 
Saudi 
Pakistan 
Iran
South African nations I think.
Cuba 
Syria 

There's plenty of others. The West is probably on advantage from a financial position.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> I'm worried the global population is more on Russias side.
> China
> North Korea
> Saudi
> Pakistan
> Iran
> South African nations I think.
> Cuba
> Syria
> 
> There's plenty of others. The West is probably on advantage from a financial position.



Probably add Americas below the rio Grande


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> I'm worried the global population is more on Russias side.
> China
> North Korea
> Saudi
> Pakistan
> Iran
> South African nations I think.
> Cuba
> Syria
> 
> There's plenty of others. The West is probably on advantage from a financial position.



I meant the countries that matter to Ukraine, Eg the ones supplying it with all the assistance.


----------



## StockyGuy

So morbidly curious what would happen if Putin dropped a "tactical" nuke or two on Ukraine.  Highly suspect he wins that round of chess - he'll be left to take over that (irradiated) land completely.  The West will accept any Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter) who can get out, and be done with the matter.  Even more complete iron curtain then re-descends.

Seems incomprehensible anyone as intelligent as Putin could do something so monstrous as use a nuclear bomb in these times, but chance of it has to be in the double digits by now, percentagewise.


----------



## moXJO

The big threat to the Ukraines is losing starlink.  Once communication goes they are going to lose a lot of ground.


----------



## Value Collector

StockyGuy said:


> So morbidly curious what would happen if Putin dropped a "tactical" nuke or two on Ukraine.  Highly suspect he wins that round of chess - he'll be left to take over that (irradiated) land completely.  The West will accept any Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter) who can get out, and be done with the matter.  Even more complete iron curtain then re-descends.
> 
> Seems incomprehensible anyone as intelligent as Putin could do something so monstrous as use a nuclear bomb in these times, but chance of it has to be in the double digits by now, percentagewise.



It depends how big the “tactical Nuke” is, they can be relatively small. 

The N word scares people, and if he did use a Nuclear weapon it would cause a massive reaction politically, but depending on its size and placement it may or may not have any great military impact, beyond causing a lot of local damage and scaring the crap out of any troops thinking of approaching the next possible strike zone.


----------



## Value Collector

Here is a video showing a USA designed small Tactical Nuke, you can see it’s not the kind of thing that would destroy a city.

But I have no idea how large Russia’s “Tactical” nukes are, or where they would deploy it.


----------



## joeno

am for peace but appear we have not made much progress towards it. Here is a few of my observations:

- The media are not shy to remind us every day genocide is occurring...

- The narrative seems to be: Russia invaded a (poor) (divided) (but European) country now we must come together as a world to destroy their leader and country because nothing like this has happened in the last 50 years. Hmm...

- Europe seems to be having a huge energy crisis. US is fine and not much impacted. No lives at risk. No oil pipelines. Good for their defense companies.

- Russia says it's a "military operation". The US says they're "helping Ukrainians defend themselves" indefinitely. Russian weapons vs US weapons. It has been reported a large % of recruits from Russia are minorities, poor men who are treated like... pawns. Who else could be pawns. hmm...

- Social Media platforms in western democracies require users to be pro-Ukrainian as policy otherwise they likely will be banned.

Maybe we should just believe everything that is thrown at us by the media and keep life simple. Russia bad. NATO totally good. No expansion. Totally defensive pact that never meddles with other countries' affairs let alone invade countries. Nothing could've been done to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. Jog on.


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> am for peace but appear we have not made much progress towards it. Here is a few of my observations:
> 
> - The media are not shy to remind us every day genocide is occurring...
> 
> - The narrative seems to be: Russia invaded a (poor) (divided) (but European) country now we must come together as a world to destroy their leader and country because nothing like this has happened in the last 50 years. Hmm...
> 
> - Europe seems to be having a huge energy crisis. US is fine and not much impacted. No lives at risk. No oil pipelines. Good for their defense companies.
> 
> - Russia says it's a "military operation". The US says they're "helping Ukrainians defend themselves" indefinitely. Russian weapons vs US weapons. It has been reported a large % of recruits from Russia are minorities, poor men who are treated like... pawns. Who else could be pawns. hmm...
> 
> - Social Media platforms in the western democracies requires users to be pro-Ukrainia otherwise likely will be banned. Hmm..
> 
> Maybe this is all whataboutism and we should just believe everything that is thrown at us by the media and keep life simple. Russia bad. NATO totally innocent. No expansion. Totally defensive pact that never meddles with other countries' affairs let alone invade countries. Nothing could've been done to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. Jog on.




Maybe there is a fear of history repeating.

*How Hitler Conquered Germany*
The Nazi propaganda machine exploited ordinary Germans by encouraging them to be co-producers of a false reality.

*DECEIVING THE PUBLIC*
*The Nazis frequently used propaganda to disguise their political aims and deceive the German and international public. They depicted Germany as the victim of Allied and Jewish aggression to hide their true ideological goals and to justify war and violence against innocent civilians.*


----------



## JohnDe

Russia is not a democracy that has the ability to vote in a new government or leader.

Putin has no fear of lying or sending his secret service agents to kill his enemies on foreign soil.

These are long proven and known facts.

The Ukraine has not threatened to use nuclear weapons, in-fact they decommissioned all of their nuclear arsenal years ago.

Putin has told the world that he is "not bluffing" if he feels the need to use Russia's nuclear weapons.


----------



## Ferret

joeno said:


> Maybe we should just believe everything that is thrown at us by the media and keep life simple. Russia bad. NATO totally good. No expansion. Totally defensive pact that never meddles with other countries' affairs let alone invade countries. Nothing could've been done to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. Jog on.



You cross a line when you send your tanks uninvited across a border.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Ferret said:


> You cross a line when you send your tanks uninvited across a border.



or target civilians

From *ISW
The October 17 drone attack on residential infrastructure in Kyiv is consistent with the broader pattern of Russian forces prioritizing creating psychological terror effects on Ukraine over achieving tangible battlefield effects. *
_US military analyst Brett Friedman observed on October 17 that a Shahed-136's payload is 88 pounds of explosives, whereas a typical 155mm M795 artillery round carries 23.8 pounds of explosives, which means that one Shahed-136 drone carries about three shells worth of explosive material but without the consistent pattern of fragmentation.[4] Friedman suggested that the five Shahed-136s that struck Kyiv had the effect of 15 artillery shells fired at a very large area.[5] Such strikes can do great damage to civilian infrastructure and kill and wound many people without creating meaningful military effects. This analysis suggests that Russian forces are continuing to use Shahed-136 drones to generate the psychological effects associated with targeting civilian areas instead of attempting to generate asymmetric operational effects by striking legitimate military and frontline targets in a concentrated manner._


----------



## bohemian

joeno said:


> am for peace but appear we have not made much progress towards it. Here is a few of my observations:
> 
> - The media are not shy to remind us every day genocide is occurring...
> 
> - The narrative seems to be: Russia invaded a (poor) (divided) (but European) country now we must come together as a world to destroy their leader and country because nothing like this has happened in the last 50 years. Hmm...
> 
> - Europe seems to be having a huge energy crisis. US is fine and not much impacted. No lives at risk. No oil pipelines. Good for their defense companies.
> 
> - Russia says it's a "military operation". The US says they're "helping Ukrainians defend themselves" indefinitely. Russian weapons vs US weapons. It has been reported a large % of recruits from Russia are minorities, poor men who are treated like... pawns. Who else could be pawns. hmm...
> 
> - Social Media platforms in western democracies require users to be pro-Ukrainian as policy otherwise they likely will be banned.
> 
> Maybe we should just believe everything that is thrown at us by the media and keep life simple. Russia bad. NATO totally good. No expansion. Totally defensive pact that never meddles with other countries' affairs let alone invade countries. Nothing could've been done to stop Russia from invading Ukraine. Jog on.



"The narrative seems to be" yeah right, no it doesn't seem, its a fact the Russian oligarchy invaded its independent sovereign neighbour without provocation. Yes NATO is good and not aggressive. Poland and every other East European states voluntarily joined after the Soviet Union withdrew their occupying forces 30 years ago.


----------



## Knobby22

bohemian said:


> "The narrative seems to be" yeah right, no it doesn't seem, its a fact the Russian oligarchy invaded its independent sovereign neighbour without provocation. Yes NATO is good and not aggressive. Poland and every other East European states voluntarily joined after the Soviet Union withdrew their occupying forces 30 years ago.



So are you saying we should do what exactly?


----------



## bohemian

Knobby22 said:


> So are you saying we should do what exactly?



We all support Ukraine 100%, don't accept Russian propaganda and right wing conspiracy theory lies and disinformation.


----------



## Knobby22

bohemian said:


> We all support Ukraine 100%, don't accept Russian propaganda and right wing conspiracy theory lies and disinformation.



Dictatorship attacking a Democracy. Easy choice.


----------



## joeno

JohnDe said:


> Maybe there is a fear of history repeating.
> 
> *How Hitler Conquered Germany*
> The Nazi propaganda machine exploited ordinary Germans by encouraging them to be co-producers of a false reality.
> 
> *DECEIVING THE PUBLIC*
> *The Nazis frequently used propaganda to disguise their political aims and deceive the German and international public. They depicted Germany as the victim of Allied and Jewish aggression to hide their true ideological goals and to justify war and violence against innocent civilians.*




"The Nazi propaganda machine exploited ordinary Germans by encouraging them to be co-producers of a false reality."

"The Nazis frequently used propaganda to disguise their political aims and deceive the German and international public. They depicted Germany as the victim of Allied and Jewish aggression to hide their true ideological goals and to justify war and violence against innocent civilians."

Ah I see many parallels. Oh wait... we're talking about Russia? My bad.



Ferret said:


> You cross a line when you send your tanks uninvited across a border.




Correct. Oh wait we're talking about Russia? My bad. Was thinking about some other countries.



Dona Ferentes said:


> or target civilians



Absolutely. Oh wait we're talking about Russia? My bad. Was thinking about someone else...



bohemian said:


> "The narrative seems to be" yeah right, no it doesn't seem, its a fact the Russian oligarchy invaded its independent sovereign neighbour without provocation. Yes NATO is good and not aggressive. Poland and every other East European states voluntarily joined after the Soviet Union withdrew their occupying forces 30 years ago.



Totally true. Those oligarchs invading an independent sovereign nation without provocation nor excuse based on a memorandum from 1990 is despicable. Oh wait we're talking about Russia? My bad. Was thinking about someone else.


Anyways I highly condemn Russia as doing anything else will likely get me banned and censored. So please take all of my comments as condemnation of Russia. Down with Putin. They're wrong we're right. Freedom. Democracy. etc.



bohemian said:


> We all support Ukraine 100%, don't accept Russian propaganda and right wing conspiracy theory lies and disinformation.




You support Ukraine more than you support peace & negotiations? Ok I will listen to you. Let's do this. Let us fight this upcoming nuclear war with Russia and hope to win.


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> "The Nazi propaganda machine exploited ordinary Germans by encouraging them to be co-producers of a false reality."
> 
> "The Nazis frequently used propaganda to disguise their political aims and deceive the German and international public. They depicted Germany as the victim of Allied and Jewish aggression to hide their true ideological goals and to justify war and violence against innocent civilians."
> 
> Ah I see many parallels. Oh wait... we're talking about Russia? My bad.
> 
> 
> 
> Correct. Oh wait we're talking about Russia? My bad. Was thinking about some other countries.
> 
> 
> Absolutely. Oh wait we're talking about Russia? My bad. Was thinking about someone else...
> 
> 
> Totally true. Those oligarchs invading an independent sovereign nation without provocation nor excuse based on a memorandum from 1990 is despicable. Oh wait we're talking about Russia? My bad. Was thinking about someone else.
> 
> 
> Anyways I highly condemn Russia as doing anything else will likely get me banned and censored. So please take all of my comments as condemnation of Russia. Down with Putin. They're wrong we're right. Freedom. Democracy. etc.
> 
> 
> 
> You support Ukraine more than you support peace & negotiations? Ok I will listen to you. Let's do this. Let us fight this upcoming nuclear war with Russia and hope to win.




Oh wait, peace & negotiations start by bombing civilians.

Oh wait, England has some experience in having their capital bombed by a dictator let’s find out what they think.


----------



## joeno

JohnDe said:


> Oh wait, peace & negotiations start by bombing civilians.
> 
> Oh wait, England has some experience in having their capital bombed by a dictator let’s find out what they think.




Yes totally agree. What's the problem? I am PRO Nato and ANTI Russia. I don't want to be censored / possibly sent to Gitmo man. Come on.

I too prefer not reading (eww). Instead, being blasted by rhetoric feels so good and easy and makes me feel like I have friends. 👍


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> Yes totally agree. What's the problem? I am PRO Nato and ANTI Russia. I don't want to be censored / possibly sent to Gitmo man. Come on.
> 
> I too prefer not reading (eww). Instead, being blasted by rhetoric feels so good and easy and makes me feel like I have friends. 👍




You keep mentioning your fear of being censored, why is that?

No one, as far as I can tell, has been censored or banned from this forum for making comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine land.

Don't stress, no one knows you here.


----------



## divs4ever

noirua said:


> Russia appoints new military commander after Ukraine setbacks
> 
> 
> The Kremlin appointed General Sergey Surovikin as the overall leader of Russian troops in Ukraine on Saturday, after weeks of battlefield losses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.euronews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia appointed a new commander on Saturday to lead its troops in Ukraine after suffering a series of military setbacks over the past weeks.
> 
> Sergey Surovikin, a general, previously led Russian forces in Syria. Here he was accused of using brutal and controversial military tactics, such as the indiscriminate bombing of anti-government strongholds.
> Surovikin has a shady past, serving time in prison twice for allegedly selling weapons and then leading a military column against protesters during the 1991 coup, which resulted in three deaths.



 as long as he shares the weapons he acquires ( from the West ) with the Russian scientists/engineers  , i can't see the problem  ( maybe the defense ministry  will give him a cash 'finder's fee )

 only three deaths ??   we are talking Russia here , football fans do worse than that  after any big match 

 now the more important part is he knows  how to squash  a terrorist insurgency ( and the four territories VOTED to join Russia , before he was appointed commander )

 BTW brutal , crude and ruthless is what Russia does best  .. ask Germany circa WW2  .. Ukraine had several months to negotiate ( between March and September )


----------



## joeno

JohnDe said:


> You keep mentioning your fear of being censored, why is that?
> 
> No one, as far as I can tell, has been censored or banned from this forum for making comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine land.
> 
> Don't stress, no one knows you here.



RT / all Russian news networks got dropped overnight after the invasion from Youtube / TV. In contrast all American and Indian propa- oops i mean news networks still operating.

Facebook / Twitter / reddit outright banning Russian accounts. Promoting the Russians-are-orcs theory. Asset seizure of rich Russians. Being banned for viewing the issue from both sides. If you don't get auto-banned, for some reason questioning media rhetoric is met with swift unanimous downvotes. Hmm who could be reacting to messages quickly! It's almost like they are being encouraged or... paid. Perhaps.

Anyways better not go against the narrative! Just force a smile and say "Nato good. Russia bad. More weapons for Ukraine"


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> RT / all Russian news networks got dropped overnight after the invasion from Youtube / TV. In contrast all American and Indian propa- oops i mean news networks still operating.
> 
> Facebook / Twitter / reddit outright banning Russian accounts. Promoting the Russians-are-orcs theory. Asset seizure of rich Russians. Being banned for viewing the issue from both sides. If you don't get auto-banned, for some reason questioning media rhetoric is met with swift unanimous downvotes. Hmm who could be reacting to messages quickly! It's almost like they are being encouraged or... paid. Perhaps.
> 
> Anyways better not go against the narrative! Just force a smile and say "Nato good. Russia bad. More weapons for Ukraine"




I am no expert in psychology or history, though both have interested me since my high school days, so when I say this i am most likely incorrect, but to the untrained eye it appears that your fear of being censored and/or banned has clouded the lessons of history.

The USA have the most liberal and free internet access and use in the world, it is like the wild west without a sheriff. Most other countries have a free internet with minor laws in place to protect people from people like Alex Jones.

History was a big part of our education system; some schools and their students took it seriously while others concentrated on something else.

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Winston Churchill. History never repeats itself. Every single historical moment is distinct from those past. However, we must learn from our mistakes so that we do not run the risk of repeating them.​
During the early 1930's the world turned a blind eye to what was happening in Germany by Hitler's policy changes. When Germany started to 'expand' its national borders, countries like England were too weary to stand up.

British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, one of the signers of the Munich pact, had taken Hitler at his word. Returning to Britain with this agreement in hand, he proudly announced that he had achieved “peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time.”​​A year later, German troops stormed into Poland.​
When Russian troops were massing at the Ukrainian border world governments made a concerted effort to ensure that there would be no invasion or war.

Puttin gave his word that Russia was only conducting military exercises.

World leaders warned Puttin and Russia that the invasion of a free and sovereign country would be met by harsh sanctions.

When you go on about Russia being the victim here, it sounds like that you have not bothered to read all the facts or study some history.  Instead, you try to guilt everyone by mentioning censorship and banning, 'going against the narrative', and so on. Maybe there is some truth in what you say, but you are yet to supply any evidence that would stand up to any simple assessment let alone an international court.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> I am no expert in psychology or history, though both have interested me since my high school days, so when I say this i am most likely incorrect, but to the untrained eye it appears that your fear of being censored and/or banned has clouded the lessons of history.
> 
> The USA have the most liberal and free internet access and use in the world, it is like the wild west without a sheriff. Most other countries have a free internet with minor laws in place to protect people from people like Alex Jones.



You have totally missed the point of what the poster was saying.
To have free internet media etc, you cannot have censorship.
 Protecting the people from Alex Jones is just another way of saying protecting people from those you disagree with,
I do not support Alex Jones, but I support his right to say it, just as I support people right to sue him for saying obviously false crap.
As soon as you want to decide what people should hear or see, its censorship.
As for the USA having the most liberal and free internet, that is laughable.
Its just that they allow most of things you approve of.
You are happy not to be allowed to see Russian propaganda, or north Korean propaganda, or anything else that twitter, CNN , Facebook,  and youtube censors.
Either everything is allowed, or else its censorship. period.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> You have totally missed the point of what the poster was saying.
> To have free internet media etc, you cannot have censorship.
> Protecting the people from Alex Jones is just another way of saying protecting people from those you disagree with,
> I do not support Alex Jones, but I support his right to say it, just as I support people right to sue him for saying obviously false crap.
> As soon as you want to decide what people should hear or see, its censorship.
> As for the USA having the most liberal and free internet, that is laughable.
> Its just that they allow most of things you approve of.
> You are happy not to be allowed to see Russian propaganda, or north Korean propaganda, or anything else that twitter, CNN , Facebook,  and youtube censors.
> Either everything is allowed, or else its censorship. period.
> Mick




OMG

Censorship for telling the truth, and spreading misinformation, are two different things.

You need to do a lot more research before commenting, especially about people like Alex Jones that has a media organisation that 'spread misinformation' that causes pain and damage.

An Alex Jones type situation would never occur in Australia, the UK and many other countries because of laws that make it illegal. Look it up before guessing and commenting.

Jury to decide on damages in trial against Alex Jones over Sandy Hook lies





__





						Responding to fake news
					

Luke Buckmaster and Tyson Wils, Social Policy Key issue Governments and parliaments around the world have  increasingly been focused on the issue of fake news, with some identifying it  as a major threat to democratic and social institutions. How has Australia been  responding to




					www.aph.gov.au


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> You are happy not to be allowed to see Russian propaganda, or north Korean propaganda, or anything else that twitter, CNN , Facebook,  and youtube censors.
> Either everything is allowed, or else its censorship. period.
> Mick




I need to ask this; are you happy for someone to tell the world that you have done some heinous act? To put your name to it.

Or what if your home is broken into and you and family members assaulted, is it ok for the perpetrators representatives to say that it is a lie and to blame you for letting them in? And for media to report it as such.

If you are, why do you use an alias instead of your real name?


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> I need to ask this; are you happy for someone to tell the world that you have done some heinous act? To put your name to it.
> 
> Or what if your home is broken into and you and family members assaulted, is it ok for the perpetrators representatives to say that it is a lie and to blame you for letting them in?
> 
> If you are, why do you use an alias instead of your real name?



At no stage did I express support for Jones view, merely his right to express them, no matter how stupid or incorrect.
The fact that Jones has been assessed by the legal system and forced to pay damages is the result of his stupidity, and that is the way to treat lies and disinformation. 
Cancelling, censorship is not the way.
Using his case as the reason why you approve of suppression of some things makes you no better than all the others who try to justify their version of "the truth". 
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> At no stage did I express support for Jones view, merely his right to express them, no matter how stupid or incorrect.
> 
> Mick




No one has the right to express views that are a lie or cause damage to people and society.

Would you be ok with a prominent media personality telling the world something about you, that causes you and your family pain, something that you know not to be true? The media personality may have some twisted proof.

Defamation laws should not stop at the internet. They have in the US for a long time, but the Jones case has sorted that out.

I do not know where people like you and joeno get your facts from. There is hardly any censorship on the net and social media. You both mention companies, well a business has the right to stop things that they believe is damaging. And users have the right to move on. Where is the censorship?

Can I come into your home and sleep on your couch whenever I want? Why not, are you censoring me?


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> No one has the right to express views that are a lie or cause damage to people and society.
> 
> Would you be ok with a prominent media personality telling the world something about you, that causes you and your family pain, something that you know not to be true? The media personality may have some twisted proof.
> 
> Defamation laws should not stop at the internet. They have in the US for a long time, but the Jones case has sorted that out.
> 
> I do not know where people like you and joeno get your facts from. There is hardly any censorship on the net and social media. You both mention companies, well a business has the right to stop things that they believe is damaging. And users have the right to move on. Where is the censorship?



So Companies that believe  that they can stop things that are damaging. 
If that is not  censorship, what the hell is?
!. Damaging to whom? 
2. Who decides what should be repressed.



JohnDe said:


> Can I come into your home and sleep on your couch whenever I want? Why not, are you censoring me?



Thats a pretty poor analogy. 
Trespass is somewhat a long stretch from  defamatory statements.
You are big on emotion, poor on logic.
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> So Companies that believe  that they can stop things that are damaging.
> If that is not  censorship, what the hell is?
> 
> Mick




I gather, from all your recent comments, that you believe that governments need to introduce regulations that govern how companies run their business. Legislation that makes it illegal for management to make decisions, once legal and fair, that affects you and people like you from being able to access information regardless of any damage it may cause.

It's plainly too hard for some consumers to take their business somewhere else, or to write to management to explain their reasoning.

I am very happy that I don't have to run my business with regulations from people like yourself, thank God I live in a free and democratic country.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

meanwhile ..... in the real world Kherson hotting up,  RUF wanting to push at Bakmut...?

*Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is also continuing efforts to set himself and Wagner Group forces apart from conventional Russian military elements.*

_The Russian outlet RIA claimed that Wagner engineering units are actively building a fortified “Wagner Line” that runs adjacent to territories in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Prigozhin reportedly stated that the construction of the “Wagner Line” is meant to protect other elements of the Russian Armed Forces while Wagner units capture more territory in Donetsk Oblast. Prigozhin’s statements indicate that he is likely continuing to promote Wagner units as superior to conventional Russian Armed Forces in a bid to increase his influence among Kremlin officials. Russian outlet RIA published a supposed map of the “Wagner line” that suggests that Prigozhin and Wagner forces may expect the Russian military to lose considerable territory in Luhansk Oblast, putting Prigozhin’s publicity of the line at odds with the specious Kremlin narrative that Russia will hold all of Luhansk Oblast_.

map 

[[ _Don’t believe anything until the Kremlin denies _it *TM *]]


----------



## againsthegrain

russia and china censor also,  well its a free country here you can move to russia or china. and live the good life there.  Don't put up any moment longer with the bad life here 😂


----------



## Dona Ferentes

againsthegrain said:


> russia and china censor also,  well its a free country here you can move to russia or china. and live the good life there.  Don't put up any moment longer with the bad life here 😂



And might take "_Animal Farm_" and "_1984 _" along for some light reading.


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Thats a pretty poor analogy.
> Trespass is somewhat a long stretch from  defamatory statements.
> You are big on emotion, poor on logic.
> Mick




Russian troops and bombs are currently trespassing on Ukrainian land and in homes and businesses.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> Russian troops are currently trespassing on Ukrainian land and in homes and businesses.



So,  what does that have to do with censorship?
Are you saying because  its not reported or something that it is censorship?
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> So,  what does that have to do with censorship?
> Are you saying because  its not reported or something that it is censorship?
> Mick




That's what happens when you go in halfcocked with only half the information.

Lost in translation - 





__





						Russian Invasion
					

That’s actually a war crime under the Geneva convention and Rome statute.  Civilian cities would be fine. Just the military installations I thought?




					www.aussiestockforums.com


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> I gather, from all your recent comments, that you believe that governments need to introduce regulations that govern how companies run their business. Legislation that makes it illegal for management to make decisions, once legal and fair, that affects you and people like you from being able to access information regardless of any damage it may cause.
> 
> It's plainly too hard for some consumers to take their business somewhere else, or to write to management to explain their reasoning.
> 
> I am very happy that I don't have to run my business with regulations from people like yourself, thank God I live in a free and democratic country.



You can believe what you want, as you say , its a free country.
Belief and facts unfortunately, are very much different things, you are putting words in my mouth.
I never at any stage suggested the government bring in regulations, they already do that, or more precisely, their lackeys in the press, the the think tanks, and the education system, and most recently, ESG experts from Superannuation funds, do that for them.
I want the government and its lackeys out of my life, I don't want or need them telling  me how to think, what to eat, what car to drive,  what things I should watch or read, or who I should believe.
You only have to look at how ineffectual   the watchdogs like  ASIC, ASX, APRA and hosts of other useless public service quangos
Mick


----------



## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> You can believe what you want, as you say , its a free country.
> 
> *I never at any stage suggested the government bring in regulations, *
> Mick




Then what do you suggest is done to sort out your problem - business censoring information that you believe should be released regardless of consequences.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

And watch out for Chelsea Manning .... it's a honey trap


----------



## qldfrog

I think all the CIA trolls and let's eat commies dinosaurs here missed that one.









						Damaged European undersea cables impact internet connectivity - PanaTimes
					

An unlikely coincidence or did Russian sabotage temporarily put Internet access on hold?




					panatimes.com
				



So either pay back from Russia after the pipelines sabotages, or just the US ramping up the heat:
after all ,how convenient that EU seems to be the only target from Russia time after time....


----------



## waterbottle

Anyone know how legit this is?









						Trump's yearslong crusade against Ukraine has finally come home to roost as Republicans call for abandoning Kyiv
					

A far-right GOP faction is urging sharp cuts to US aid to Ukraine, which would cut the legs out from under Ukraine's efforts to retake its territory.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




If true, it would be a game changer IMO. Would leave the door open for Russia to clean up. Big global implications.


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> I think all the CIA trolls and let's eat commies dinosaurs here missed that one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Damaged European undersea cables impact internet connectivity - PanaTimes
> 
> 
> An unlikely coincidence or did Russian sabotage temporarily put Internet access on hold?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> panatimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So either pay back from Russia after the pipelines sabotages, or just the US ramping up the heat:
> after all ,how convenient that EU seems to be the only target from Russia time after time....



Some details:
Not an under water attack, just sabotage of burried pipe near aix.
As France is a lawless state where dozen of km of copper cables are stolen overning on the peripherique by eastern gangs...send more money to ukraine?, it might have nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine,just the slow collapse of a doomed country








						Comment le sabotage d'un câble internet dans le sud de la France a affecté la connectivité mondiale
					

Un câble terrestre sectionné aux alentours d'Aix-en-Provence, relié à d'importants câbles sous-marins en Atlantique et en Méditerranée, a provoqué un ralentissement de l'Internet mondial.




					www.clubic.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes

It's called Hybrid warfare. A week or so ago, most of DB rail network in NE Germany was stopped for several hours when important signalling was cut.


----------



## joeno

JohnDe said:


> The USA have the most liberal and free internet access and use in the world, it is like the wild west without a sheriff. Most other countries have a free internet with minor laws in place to protect people from people like Alex Jones.




Yes America is so free. I would love to live in this country because it is so free.
- It doesn't stop institutional racism in universities.
- It doesn't stop elementary school shootings.
- It doesn't stop radical media corporations creating fake news en masse and brainwashing its people and overseas
- It doesn't stop genocide of the actual first inhabitants of the country - the Native Americans.
- It doesn't stop invading countries like Iraq for oil
- It doesn't stop trying to "extradite" whistleblowers (traitors) like Assange and Snowden.
- It doesn't stop lying about such invasion with the excuse of WMDs
- It doesn't stop trying to interfere, control every part of the world through puppet governments and installing dictatorships who are friendly to the US
- It doesn't stop supporting apartheid states like Israel.
- It doesn't stop people electing pyramid scammers (who also has the bonus of being an unhinged racist) like Trump
- It doesn't stop their political system being 2 Parties, both of which want to wage war
- It doesn't stop the government from ignoring the entire population that votes for them in office and instead taking $$$ from various lobbies.



JohnDe said:


> World leaders warned Puttin and Russia that the invasion of a free and sovereign country would be met by harsh sanctions.
> 
> When you go on about Russia being the victim here, it sounds like that you have not bothered to read all the facts or study some history.  Instead, you try to guilt everyone by mentioning censorship and banning, 'going against the narrative', and so on. Maybe there is some truth in what you say, but you are yet to supply any evidence that would stand up to any simple assessment let alone an international court.



What are you talking about? Russia is the victim? No way Jose. America is the victim. How dare Russia send their military within 8,000km of the US mainland. The US always respects the borders of other countries and would in no way ever dare threaten any country in the world let alone invade them.

The US only sends their bombers out on runs for the purpose of defending US soil from those highly aggressive Yemenese, Afghans and Syrians. How dare these countries... exist.

By the way I am not a Russian sympathizer. Hope we are clear on that. I love America. I don't want to be sent to Guantanamo Bay or tortured.



againsthegrain said:


> russia and china censor also, well its a free country here you can move to russia or china. and live the good life there. Don't put up any moment longer with the bad life here 😂




I heard there were these people before that also wanted the other (newer)people to move elsewhere due to differences in values... hmm what were they called? A---. Ab---. Ah nevermind. 



Dona Ferentes said:


> And might take "_Animal Farm_" and "_1984 _" along for some light reading.




What happened in the 1984? Can someone remind me? I remember watching the movie a long time ago... something to do with being controlled by an omnipresent "big brother" right? Large controlling system of media dispersal that has presence all of the world. That forces people to believe in things they want you to believe in... to make it seem like it was your idea in the first place. To make believing in anything else ostracizing and dangerous.

You know what - doesn't ring a bell.


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> Yes America is so free. I would love to live in this country because it is so free.
> - It doesn't stop institutional racism in universities.
> - It doesn't stop elementary school shootings.
> - It doesn't stop radical media corporations creating fake news en masse and brainwashing its people and overseas
> - It doesn't stop genocide of the actual first inhabitants of the country - the Native Americans.
> - It doesn't stop invading countries like Iraq for oil
> - It doesn't stop trying to "extradite" whistleblowers (traitors) like Assange and Snowden.
> - It doesn't stop lying about such invasion with the excuse of WMDs
> - It doesn't stop trying to interfere, control every part of the world through puppet governments and installing dictatorships who are friendly to the US
> - It doesn't stop supporting apartheid states like Israel.
> - It doesn't stop people electing pyramid scammers (who also has the bonus of being an unhinged racist) like Trump
> - It doesn't stop their political system being 2 Parties, both of which want to wage war
> - It doesn't stop the government from ignoring the entire population that votes for them in office and instead taking $$$ from various lobbies.
> 
> 
> What are you talking about? Russia is the victim? No way Jose. America is the victim. How dare Russia send their military within 8,000km of the US mainland. The US always respects the borders of other countries and would in no way ever dare threaten any country in the world let alone invade them.
> 
> The US only sends their bombers out on runs for the purpose of defending US soil from those highly aggressive Yemenese, Afghans and Syrians. How dare these countries... exist.
> 
> By the way I am not a Russian sympathizer. Hope we are clear on that. I love America. I don't want to be sent to Guantanamo Bay or tortured.
> 
> 
> 
> I heard there were these people before that also wanted the other (newer)people to move elsewhere due to differences in values... hmm what were they called? A---. Ab---. Ah nevermind.
> 
> 
> 
> What happened in the 1984? Can someone remind me? I remember watching the movie a long time ago... something to do with being controlled by an omnipresent "big brother" right? Large controlling system of media dispersal that has presence all of the world. That forces people to believe in things they want you to believe in... to make it seem like it was your idea in the first place. To make believing in anything else ostracizing and dangerous.
> 
> You know what - doesn't ring a bell.




The book was a lot better.


----------



## qldfrog

For anyone genuinely interested in the Ukrainian civil war, and why we are where we are








						Ukraine - The Orange Revolution and the Yushchenko presidency
					

The presidential election of 2004 brought Ukraine to the brink of disintegration and civil war. Cleared to seek a third term as president by the Constitutional Court, Kuchma instead endorsed the candidacy of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who was also strongly supported by Russian Pres...



					www.britannica.com
				



This is a western biaised view moreover so i have no issue trusting it...
How quick has the orange lady and orange revolution been forgotten by the so called democracies to give the prime time to the TShirt deep state puppets..


----------



## JohnDe

qldfrog said:


> For anyone genuinely interested in the Ukrainian civil war, and why we are where we are
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine - The Orange Revolution and the Yushchenko presidency
> 
> 
> The presidential election of 2004 brought Ukraine to the brink of disintegration and civil war. Cleared to seek a third term as president by the Constitutional Court, Kuchma instead endorsed the candidacy of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who was also strongly supported by Russian Pres...
> 
> 
> 
> www.britannica.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is a western biaised view moreover so i have no issue trusting it...
> How quick has the orange lady and orange revolution been forgotten by the so called democracies to give the prime time to the TShirt deep state puppets..




Sorry, I do not understand what you're trying to say.

Could you please explain.

My understanding of your comment is -
'the Ukraine's 2004 civil conflict against corruption is the reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the article submitted proves this. However the article is western biased and so trusting it is questionable.'​


----------



## againsthegrain

Video from a Russian pilots helmet camera of being shot down and catapulting.

Amazing he survived and simply walked away was flying and shot down at such low altitude


----------



## againsthegrain

JohnDe said:


> Sorry, I do not understand what you're trying to say.
> 
> Could you please explain.
> 
> My understanding of your comment is -
> 'the Ukraine's 2004 civil conflict against corruption is the reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the article submitted proves this. However the article is western biased and so trusting it is questionable.'​



I'll say frog does have a certain point there, Ukraine nor any other country/government are not saints.
Really hard to say how much and how many people in the eastern regions wanted to break away at the start.  During 2014 it was proved Putin was sending in fake citizens over the border to cast doubts and votes.  However with a open mind I can't 100% say there was no people living in the disputed territories that shared this view.


Even in Australia now there is quiet Chinese minorities in Melbourne and Sydney that are quietly trying to introduce the idea of China annexing parts of Australia.  Crazy and insignificant nobody takes it serious and hopefully they don't. This is a perfect example how a movement starts from a single seed of a idea and thought that is planted and cultivated correctly


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> I'll say frog does have a certain point there, Ukraine nor any other country/government are not saints.
> Really hard to say how much and how many people in the eastern regions wanted to break away at the start.  During 2014 it was proved Putin was sending in fake citizens over the border to cast doubts and votes.  However with a open mind I can't 100% say there was no people living in the disputed territories that shared this view.
> 
> 
> Even in Australia now there is quiet Chinese minorities in Melbourne and Sydney that are quietly trying to introduce the idea of China annexing parts of Australia.  Crazy and insignificant nobody takes it serious and hopefully they don't. This is a perfect example how a movement starts from a single seed of a idea and thought that is planted and cultivated correctly



I was just trying to teach a bit of history tgere instead of gullibly swallowing propaganda.you will note that internationally monitored and considered valid..not by putin but eu etc ended with a president being reversed by the current clique.
I also want people to remember the so called orange revolution..and try to think about what happened after and where does the current civil war or russian invasion 🙄 stands in that regards.
And yes it is bloody relevant, and yes it is hard, you have to use the brain instead of switching TV.
In the meantime, we send weapons , prevent any peace initiative and let young blokes and civilians from both camps die with a glee.yes with a glee.
It is pathetic and remind me of the hords of nazis lining up the german streets in 1936...
And now we will have the nuke strikes within weeks..each blaming the other with the ultimate victorious party claiming the truth and entering it in history books....


----------



## noirua

qldfrog said:


> I was just trying to teach a bit of history tgere instead of gullibly swallowing propaganda.you will note that internationally monitored and considered valid..not by putin but eu etc ended with a president being reversed by the current clique.
> I also want people to remember the so called orange revolution..and try to think about what happened after and where does the current civil war or russian invasion 🙄 stands in that regards.
> And yes it is bloody relevant, and yes it is hard, you have to use the brain instead of switching TV.
> In the meantime, we send weapons , prevent any peace initiative and let young blokes and civilians from both camps die with a glee.yes with a glee.
> It is pathetic and remind me of the hords of nazis lining up the german streets in 1936...
> And now we will have the nuke strikes within weeks..each blaming the other with the ultimate victorious party claiming the truth and entering it in history books....



Just like being on a football field a person is out there to win. In war anything goes and if your side fights harder and gains an advantage by convincing soldiers the opposition eats babies then that's OK.  Our side must win at all costs. Anyone on our side who speaks well of the opposition is a traitor.


----------



## JohnDe

qldfrog said:


> I was just trying to teach a bit of history tgere instead of gullibly swallowing propaganda.you will note that internationally monitored and considered valid..not by putin but eu etc ended with a president being reversed by the current clique.
> I also want people to remember the so called orange revolution..and try to think about what happened after and where does the current civil war or russian invasion 🙄 stands in that regards.
> And yes it is bloody relevant, and yes it is hard, you have to use the brain instead of switching TV.
> In the meantime, we send weapons , prevent any peace initiative and let young blokes and civilians from both camps die with a glee.yes with a glee.
> It is pathetic and remind me of the hords of nazis lining up the german streets in 1936...
> And now we will have the nuke strikes within weeks..each blaming the other with the ultimate victorious party claiming the truth and entering it in history books....




Poor quality teaching does no one any good.

Whose propaganda are you inferring too?

Are you comparing the Ukrainian people to "the hordes of Nazis in 1936"?

I believe that it is you that need to be taught, rather than give the lessons. The Ukraine protests that you mention were caused by people protesting against corruption and loss of freedom. How is that a bad thing, how has that given reason to Putin's mad war?

Why did Putin not assist with troops in 2004 and 2014?

_The Orange Revolution__ (Ukrainian: Помаранчева революція, romanized: Pomarancheva revoliutsiia) was a series of protests and political events, that took place in Ukraine from late November 2004 to January 2005, in the immediate aftermath of the run-off vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, which was claimed to be marred by massive corruption, voter intimidation and electoral fraud. Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, was the focal point of the movement's campaign of civil resistance, with thousands of protesters demonstrating daily.[6] Nationwide,[7] the revolution was highlighted by a series of acts of civil disobedience, sit-ins, and general strikes organized by the opposition movement._​​_The protests were prompted by reports from several domestic and foreign election monitors as well as the widespread public perception that the results of the run-off vote of 21 November 2004 between leading candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych were rigged by the authorities in favour of the latter._​
The majority of the Ukrainian people have wanted to be part of the EU for a long time, they want to be part of a western democracy, they want to be rid of corruption and fear of a police state. In wanting these things that we take for granted, they have had to meet EU criteria Joining the EU - European Union

How is wanting to be free of corruption and fear of Putin's Russia, the Ukraine fault for a Russian invasion?


----------



## qldfrog

noirua said:


> Just like being on a football field a person is out there to win. In war anything goes and if your side fights harder and gains an advantage by convincing soldiers the opposition eats babies then that's OK.  Our side must win at all costs. Anyone on our side who speaks well of the opposition is a traitor.



You are right, and i fully understand why and how they do it: both sides but i once had hope that with years at Uni, widespread education and former easy travel, and a limitless source of information, at least in the west (the chinese population does not have this resource/excuse), the western population would be less gullible, more informed..in short less dumb.
Covid spam was the great rehearsal and sadly propaganda is at least as effective now as in the 1900s.
Worse when you see the calibre of some of the posters on this thread not exactly illeterate or dumb but critical spirit and free spirit out of the door anyway.
It is bad and does not augure well.
Mr @Ducati pointed to a very interesting paper recently


			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## joeno

JohnDe said:


> The majority of the Ukrainian people have wanted to be part of the EU for a long time, they want to be part of a western democracy, they want to be rid of corruption and fear of a police state. In wanting these things that we take for granted, they have had to meet EU criteria Joining the EU - European Union
> 
> How is wanting to be free of corruption and fear of Putin's Russia, the Ukraine fault for a Russian invasion?




Hmm... w. democracy didn't seem to work too well for Brazil, Cuba, Iran, Iraq etc...

Ok let's entice all of the FSU countries around Russia to join the EU/NATO and expect Russia to not only do nothing about it but allow the breaking of prior agreements:

"James A. Baker made to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev during a meeting on February 9, 1990. In a discussion on the status of a reunited Germany, the two men agreed that NATO would not extend past the territory of East Germany, a promise repeated by NATO’s secretary general in a speech on May 17 that same year in Brussels."

To be clear i don't believe Russia will dare to touch an actual NATO/EU country such as Poland. If they do it's likely the end of Russia... but then also a good chance the end of the world


----------



## againsthegrain

joeno said:


> Hmm... w. democracy didn't seem to work too well for Brazil, Cuba, Iran, Iraq etc...
> 
> Ok let's entice all of the FSU countries around Russia to join the EU/NATO and expect Russia to not only do nothing about it but allow the breaking of prior agreements:
> 
> "James A. Baker made to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev during a meeting on February 9, 1990. In a discussion on the status of a reunited Germany, the two men agreed that NATO would not extend past the territory of East Germany, a promise repeated by NATO’s secretary general in a speech on May 17 that same year in Brussels."
> 
> To be clear i don't believe Russia will dare to touch an actual NATO/EU country such as Poland. If they do it's likely the end of Russia... but then also a good chance the end of the world



Russia also signed the Budapest Memorandum in 93 which stated amongst other terms that it will respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders and refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

*Whataboutism *is a poor substitute for discussion.


----------



## joeno

Dona Ferentes said:


> *Whataboutism *is a poor substitute for discussion.




Here's my humble take on some FAQs as a defender of western democracy:

"US did the same thing many times but received no sanctions nor risked WW3"
WHATABOUTISM!!!! How dare you bring up a like-to-like comparison!

"Maybe Russia had legitimate security concerns and reasons for the invasion?"
ORCS AREN'T ENTITLED TO SECURITY YOU PRO-PUTIN SPY COMMIE

"Maybe we should try to compromise and find a peaceful solution"
FIGHT RUSSIA KILL PUTIN IS ONLY SOLUTION YOU PRO-PUTIN SPY COMMIE. I know what I am talking about. I watch both Sky News and Channel 7

I hope I have contributed well to the discussion about the Russia/Ukraine/NATO conflict.


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> Here's my humble take on some FAQs as a defender of western democracy:
> 
> "US did the same thing many times but received no sanctions nor risked WW3"
> WHATABOUTISM!!!! How dare you bring up a like-to-like comparison!
> 
> "Maybe Russia had legitimate security concerns and reasons for the invasion?"
> ORCS AREN'T ENTITLED TO SECURITY YOU PRO-PUTIN SPY COMMIE
> 
> "Maybe we should try to compromise and find a peaceful solution"
> FIGHT RUSSIA KILL PUTIN IS ONLY SOLUTION YOU PRO-PUTIN SPY COMMIE. I know what I am talking about. I watch both Sky News and Channel 7
> 
> I hope I have contributed well to the discussion about the Russia/Ukraine/NATO conflict.




Here you go - 

*Many in Mideast see hypocrisy in Western embrace of Ukraine*









						Many in Mideast see hypocrisy in Western embrace of Ukraine
					

JERUSALEM (AP) — Within days of the Russian invasion, Western countries invoked international law, imposed crippling sanctions, began welcoming refugees with open arms and cheered on Ukraine's armed resistance.




					apnews.com


----------



## Knobby22

Nations such as Russia and China produce propaganda to the west because some people are susceptible to it.

Ukraine is a Nazi state. USA set up chemical warfare laboratories near the Ukraine Russian border.

Both absurd

1. Ukraine had just elected someone from the general populace and the people are fighting hard because they are a democracy and want freedom.

2. If the USA were to set up secret chemical labs they would locate them in highly secure areas, not on the Russian border.

I think why people fall for propaganda is that they want to think the worst of their own countries actions especially in the case of the USA.


----------



## finicky

Knobby22 said:


> Nations such as Russia and China produce propaganda to the west because some people are susceptible to it.



That's my neighbour. He says that the Chinese people support Xi. Sides against Ukraine and with Russia because NATO is an encirclement. He's a bitter old educated leftie on a pension provided by this Australian capitalist society who would pick the filthy CCP and the mobster Putin over the USA any day on any issue. Fortunately we have sustained viable neighbourly relations but really I would like to strangle him. The thing is, he is more intelligent than me in a lot of ways which makes me even more enraged, the f'g fool.


----------



## qldfrog

finicky said:


> That's my neighbour. He says that the Chinese people support Xi. Sides against Ukraine and with Russia because NATO is an encirclement. He's a bitter old educated leftie on a pension provided by this Australian capitalist society who would pick the filthy CCP and the mobster Putin over the USA any day on any issue. Fortunately we have sustained viable neighbourly relations but really I would like to strangle him. The thing is, he is more intelligent than me in a lot of ways which makes me even more enraged, the f'g fool.



The thing is, he is more intelligent than me in a lot of ways which makes me even more enraged.
Well if you truly believe that, maybe it could be time to question your certitudes and see case by case where you should stand? There is no black and white(  no playing the race card here LOL), and the USA of 2022 is a very different best from the 1980s.
Who do you think is in power there?
Seriously!
As for the chinese people being behind Xi, i have absolutely no doubt about that.Remember they are behind firewall with even FB ,twitter dreaming of ever achieving such an efficient censorship.


----------



## finicky

I've decided not to strangle you @qldfrog for your errant thinking.


----------



## joeno

Knobby22 said:


> Nations such as Russia and China produce propaganda to the west because some people are susceptible to it.
> 
> Ukraine is a Nazi state. USA set up chemical warfare laboratories near the Ukraine Russian border.
> 
> Both absurd
> 
> 1. Ukraine had just elected someone from the general populace and the people are fighting hard because they are a democracy and want freedom.
> 
> 2. If the USA were to set up secret chemical labs they would locate them in highly secure areas, not on the Russian border.
> 
> I think why people fall for propaganda is that they want to think the worst of their own countries actions especially in the case of the USA.




Let me cherry pick 2 examples that I think my foes use to discredit my propaganda. If i can discredit that, then my propaganda is clearly now valid. I am absolutely good and Russia is absolutely bad.

And you're right. Why would anyone put labs with chemical weapons near the enemies' borders? Surely there would never be a situation during war where that could be useful!



finicky said:


> That's my neighbour. He says that the Chinese people support Xi. Sides against Ukraine and with Russia because NATO is an encirclement. He's a bitter old educated leftie on a pension provided by this Australian capitalist society who would pick the filthy CCP and the mobster Putin over the USA any day on any issue. Fortunately we have sustained viable neighbourly relations but really I would like to strangle him. The thing is, he is more intelligent than me in a lot of ways which makes me even more enraged, the f'g fool.




I wasn't sure who to hate til you used words such as "bitter old" and "filthy" and threatened to strangle someone with an "educated leftie" view.. Please sir, tell me more about who I should hate and who I should side with in this obviously simple black-and-white hollywood movie of a world.


----------



## Knobby22

joeno said:


> And you're right. Why would anyone put labs with chemical weapons near the enemies' borders? Surely there would never be a situation during war where that could be useful.



Chemical weapon labs. Highly illegal. Both China and Russia were witnesses that a number of them existed. Must be true eh?


----------



## JohnDe

Who was it that said 'History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme'

_No wonder the Russians don’t want Finland in NATO__. As Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine turns into what will be a long winter war there are plenty of folk memories of how the Finns gave the Red Army a bloody nose in 1939-40._​​_Stalin’s army was reputed to be one of the best in the world. It outnumbered and outgunned the Finns by four to one yet the ghost patrols of the ski troops kept the Russians at bay for months, ripping out sentries’ bellies with their puukko hunting knives._​​_Today’s war in Ukraine is about to turn even nastier. With the added advantage of western training and western weapons, the Ukrainian soldiers are shaping up to be, like the Finns more than 80 years ago, a modern, fast-thinking home defence force capable of humiliating Moscow._​​_Those who have chosen to be non-aligned, such as India and other Asian countries, must be scratching their heads; China must be nervous about being in cahoots with what looks like a military power in steep decline. NATO is taking heart: alliance solidarity and expansion can, despite decades of defeatism, shrink the power of Putin and his ilk._​​_But not NATO member Turkey. While the rest of the alliance has been rushing to ratify the admission of Finland and Sweden, Ankara hasn’t even started on the process. The two traditionally neutral Nordic states cannot join the transatlantic pact until there is complete unanimity._​​_Instead Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursues a reckless love-in with Putin. The Turkish president imagines he is treading the statesmanlike path; in fact he is administering increasingly stronger doses of strychnine to the defence of the West._​​_Erdogan was of course quick to offer Putin 70th birthday greetings this month. He opposes sanctions against Russia and actively seeks to profit from the situation. Trade with Russia has hit a new high: $50 billion so far this year. Turkish Airlines is laying on bigger aircraft on its Russian routes because of a tourism boom. Russians have bought more than 8000 properties in Turkey so far this year (it was 5000 last year). Moscow’s oligarchs feel safe mooring and kitting out their yachts in Turkey. When Erdogan wants to annoy the Americans he buys air defence systems from Russia. The result: Putin will never be a pariah as long as Erdogan is happy to help._​​_The Turkish president wants something in return: help from Russia in winning a new term in office next June. With galloping inflation and a wrecked economy Erdogan needs to pull something out of the hat. That could come in the form of a pre-election offer to young Turkish voters of help in getting on the property ladder. Russia might be ready to finance that._​​_The Turkish leader is a transactionalist politician. It could even be that he wins from Finland (and especially from Sweden) tougher enforcement of extradition laws against the many Kurdish exiles living there in return for being the last NATO country to accept the two new Nordic members._​​_Or he may just hold up the ratification process until after his election, by which time the tide of war might have switched in favour of Putin, or western support for Volodymyr Zelensky weakened._​​_But the relationship with Putin is about more than trading favours. They are both long servers (Putin since 2000, Erdogan since 2014) and have come to understand each other’s limits. As an old spy, Putin likes dealing with neutral states and would certainly prefer Finland to stay that way. He wants an internationally enforced neutrality for Ukraine, dances at private weddings in neutral Austria and is said to have squirrelled some of his fortune in neutral Switzerland._​​_His strategic aim would be that Turkey leaves NATO and declares neutrality. Knowing that to be unrealistic, he would settle for Turkey being a constant complicating factor, a shifty, unreliable ally for the western alliance. That’s what he has got as long as Erdogan remains in power._​​_That may mean accepting for a while Turkey’s dealing with an independent Ukrainian state. But Putin knows how to subtly unravel any Turkish relationship with Kyiv. Erdogan co-negotiated the opening of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports but the grain exports are only trickling through to customers in the developing world. Why? Russia is holding up the processing of the cargos – 150 ships are in a logjam._​​_The already fragile agreement is set to end next month and Putin intends to exploit the deadline to the detriment of Kyiv. Erdogan will be the middleman, extracting concessions from the Ukrainians to the advantage of his friend._​​_Turkey gave an early boost to Ukrainian troops with supplies of drones. Now these are drying up and Russia is investing in a cheaper Iranian drone force. Result: Ukraine is exposed from the air and Turkey has been taught that it is not the only drone supplier in the crisis._​​_Erdogan and Putin’s interests collide in many global flashpoints, in Libya, northern Syria, in Nagorno-Karabakh, but they usually stay friends._​​_The Turkish leader believes this is down to his own diplomatic genius. The Russian leader probably believes he has turned the new sultan into a useful idiot._​​_They share, and are bonded by, a deep distrust of American intentions. That is not a healthy foundation for the new NATO._​​_Finland and Sweden should join the alliance immediately and bring with them their highly developed ideas on strategic resilience. Erdogan meanwhile should make his choice: to work towards a joint defence of the West or enjoy a long retirement with Putin, the war criminal._​


----------



## JohnDe

​_ "War is also rare between democracies (the number of which has increased in the past 200 years), perhaps because voters tend not to like the costs of it and boot out their belligerent leaders." _Remind me what political system Russia has.



> *Vladimir Putin is dragging the world back to a bloodier time*
> His attempt to conquer Ukraine ignores the lessons of history
> 
> Vladimir Putin is a keen reader of history. In long months of isolation during the covid-19 pandemic, say some, Russia’s president lingered in the Kremlin archives brooding over his country’s past as a great power and dreaming of restoring it. He admires the early Romanovs, who cemented their rule at the turn of the 17th century following a dynastic crisis marked by violence and lawlessness in Russia and then set off conquering their way to the Pacific Ocean. In particular he has compared himself to Peter the Great, the tsar who seized land from Sweden and turned Russia into the dominant power in the Baltic region.
> 
> In 2014 Mr Putin’s forces seized Crimea, a peninsula in southern Ukraine. People there were eventually handed Russian passports. At the time, the move seemed simply opportunistic. Conquering Crimea was popular among Russians, many of whom considered the territory’s transfer from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954 as illegitimate. But the taking of Crimea, and the support provided by Russia to rebels in Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, now look more like steps in a grand plan to seize Ukrainian land.
> 
> In a rambling speech three days before Russian missiles started falling on Ukrainian cities in February, Mr Putin lamented the loss of the “territory of the former Russian empire”. Eight months into the invasion his forces now occupy some 15% of Ukrainian soil. But it is not going according to plan. Ukraine’s counter-offensive continues to push back Russian troops. On September 30th, following sham referendums, Russia announced it had annexed four eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, though it does not wholly control them. Announcing the move, Mr Putin decried the West’s “fake rules”, including the inviolability of borders. But his invasion has weakened Russia, not strengthened it. In attempting to conquer a neighbouring sovereign country, he tried bucking history. He is failing.
> 
> Since the end of the second world war, wars between countries have, for many reasons, become rarer. That is not to say they have disappeared, and the decline in interstate war is not the same as peace: civil wars (such as the one now raging in Ethiopia), state repression and other mass violence continue to inflict enormous human suffering. Wars of independence from colonial repression were often extremely deadly too. But examples of one state sending its armed forces over a border to fight those of another have become far less common.
> 
> Even rarer than war between countries, however, is what Mr Putin is trying to do: imperial conquest, or invading a country to make its territory his own. As Yuval Noah Harari, a historian and author, wrote this year, “most governments stopped seeing wars of aggression as an acceptable tool to advance their interests, and most nations stopped fantasising about conquering and annexing their neighbours.” Saddam Hussein believed, wrongly, that Iraq would be permitted by other states to swallow up Kuwait in 1990. Most other examples of such efforts—such as India absorbing Goa in 1961 and Sikkim in 1975—are older still. China might yet try it in Taiwan. But with the exception of Mr Putin’s efforts, and clashes over uninhabited border areas or small islands, the phenomenon has all but disappeared.
> The dramatic decline did not happen by chance. The reasons behind it explain something about how states now interact with each other. They also point to why Mr Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine is so exceptional, and unlikely to end in success.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Evidence for the decline in war is not hard to find. The Correlates of War Project, an international research outfit, has collected data on every interstate war fought since 1816, after the Napoleonic wars. These data confirm that wars—meaning conflicts between states with at least 1,000 battle deaths in one year—are becoming much rarer.
> The causes are many. Where economies rely on international trade which can be disrupted by conflict, the cost of war increases. In turn, lower trade barriers help to reduce the potential spoils. After all, invading territory in order to impose trade terms, or to access new markets, is hardly rewarding if markets were already open. This is not a sufficient condition for peace, as the first world war showed, but it does reduce the incentives for conflict. War is also rare between democracies (the number of which has increased in the past 200 years), perhaps because voters tend not to like the costs of it and boot out their belligerent leaders. Some scholars even argue that, depending on how strictly you define democracy, two have never gone to war with each other. Finally, strategic nuclear weapons would make total war so destructive as to be hard to imagine.
> Smaller conflicts remain common, but even counting all interstate clashes with over 25 deaths, the proportion of the world’s population killed in battle has sharply declined (see chart). This is in part because improved training and equipment protect soldiers better than ever, and medicine has improved. Researchers estimate the wounded-to-killed ratio in wars has more than doubled over the past 50 years.
> In Ukraine, however, the human cost has already been extraordinarily high. Estimates vary, but at least 16,500 soldiers have died from both sides, and that number may be as high as 50,000. In September Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence minister, claimed that Russian casualties (the dead and the wounded) amounted to 80,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As a big and deadly war, Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine looks unusual when compared with historical trends. But his aim, to use force to permanently enlarge his country’s already immense territory, is not just a rarity. It is an aberration. According to the Correlates of War data, since the late 1970s no large conquests took place until the seizing of Crimea in 2014. Attempted conquests have steadily declined too: in data going back to the first world war collected by Dan Altman, a researcher, violent bids for territory have fallen from roughly one a year to almost none, if small islands and unpopulated areas are excluded.
> In a typical decade between 1850 and 1940, perhaps 1% of the world’s population saw their rulers change as a result of conquest, according to the Correlates of War data. But in the past 40 years, excluding Ukraine, fewer than 100,000 people (or 0.001%) have experienced the same, almost all of them in long-disputed areas during the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020.
> A variety of factors explain the almost complete elimination of states successfully seizing each others’ territory. The economic benefits have shrivelled while the costs have become extraordinarily high; the modern expectations of a state make it difficult to rule a group of people against its will; and international norms and institutions mean that other states are more likely to intervene to prevent it.
> Six-day war​1967​Even if the destructive force of a modern war doesn’t destroy an area’s productive potential, economic activity, once driven almost entirely by land and natural resources, is now more reliant on human capital. Workers are unlikely to toil in conflict zones, or under the control of invaders. If they can, they will often leave. The security measures often required to maintain control over territory require restrictions on movement and trade that can sap its growth.
> Take the West Bank, seized by Israel during the six-day war against Arab states in 1967. In the decades since, Israel has built scores of settlements, both in an arc around East Jerusalem, which it formally annexed in 1980, and more widely across the West Bank. Today around 60% of the area is under full Israeli control; the rest is either under joint Israeli and Palestinian jurisdiction or controlled mostly by the Palestinian Authority overseen by Israel.
> Some Israeli politicians accept that most of the West Bank would be the core of a Palestinian state in a future peace deal, others want to annex it fully. But in the meantime it has withered. According to the UN, the GDP per person of the West Bank and the Gaza strip, also captured by Israel during the six-day war, was just $3,700 in 2019, compared with $44,000 for Israel. Gaza proved so tricky to keep under control that Israel withdrew its last 8,500 settlers in 2005.
> Carl Kaysen, who served as deputy national security adviser to President John F. Kennedy and taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, questioned in 1990 whether a conquered industrialised society could ever be fully incorporated into a modern state against the will of its inhabitants. The population needs to be won over. People can sometimes be exploited economically. Peter Liberman, of the City University of New York, has pointed to Japan, which seized Korea, Manchuria and Taiwan between 1895 and 1931 and built an “economically booming and politically submissive empire”. But this was only possible using enormous brutality, and under obvious military control.
> Globalisation has eroded the incentives to conquer too. A vast reduction in shipping costs over the past century has allowed countries to look far beyond their neighbours for a greater share of trade and resources. And, as tariffs and other barriers to trade between countries have fallen, it has become pointless to integrate markets by force.
> Afghanistan​2001​Those attempting to hold territory face increased challenges_. _America and its allies found as much in their efforts to turn impoverished Afghanistan into a modern democracy after they invaded and deposed the Taliban in 2001.
> Despite the occupiers’ overwhelming military advantages—such as control of the skies—Taliban forces eventually triumphed, resulting in a humiliating withdrawal for America in 2021. Highly motivated guerilla fighters, often supported by a sympathetic civilian population, were far readier to suffer casualties and privation than were the occupiers. Neighbouring Pakistan, whose army and spies long backed the Taliban, badly complicated America’s efforts to impose order. The extraordinary costs of sustaining a military occupation in a remote, land-locked territory in Asia, meanwhile, became ever harder for American politicians to explain to voters.
> In part, this is because expectations on what states need to provide their citizens have grown, be it education, health care or economic opportunities. That increases costs (and the need for revenue), and introduces points of friction between citizens and the state, such as schooling. In many countries, people also have clearer national identities than they once did. Primary education, which plays an important role in instilling such identities in children, especially through language learning, is a frequent source of conflict in occupied areas. Stable borders play a role in building national identities too, solidifying them over the decades. In Ukraine, even predominantly Russian-speaking parts of the east and south have become vehemently anti-Russian. In Odessa, a port city which holds a treasured place in Russia’s history and culture, Ukrainian flags now fly from every street corner.
> And options for controlling the occupied, at least for conquerors with a conscience—or the desire to look like they have one—are more limited than they once were. Slavery and “divide and rule” tactics, like those Britain used to maintain order in the empire, are now held as morally bankrupt and barbaric almost everywhere (even if they remain far from wholly eliminated). Genocide is even more so—to the point outside states perceive a responsibility, and right, to protect populations from it, using military means if need be.
> Kuwait​1990​It is not just atrocities such as genocide that will prompt other states to intervene and stop an occupation. On August 2nd 1990, Iraqi forces moved into Kuwait. Less than four weeks later Saddam Hussein announced that Kuwait had become the 19th governorate of Iraq. The reaction from the rest of the world was swift. A day after the invasion the UN Security Council unanimously passed resolution 660, condemning it. Even Russia and China were happy to sign up to an American-led intervention against Saddam. Eleven more resolutions followed and, after Saddam ignored several deadlines to withdraw, Operation Desert Storm began. A coalition of 35 countries routed the Iraqi army in just six weeks.
> The first Gulf War happened at a time of American supremacy at the end of the Cold War, and is the clearest recent example of the norm against conquest being enforced. By and large, public opinion no longer holds conquest to be a legitimate tool of statecraft, which influences how leaders act. It also limits conquest in other ways. Customary behaviour, or the adherence to norms, is one source of international law. And multilateral institutions such as the UN give these norms power by upholding them.
> 
> The establishment of a consensus against big land grabs is part of why so few countries have expanded their borders by force since the end of the second world war, including in places where few expected borders to be stable, such as in newly independent parts of Africa. Although Moroccan and Mauritanian soldiers invaded Western Sahara in 1975, other more recent border changes in the continent have been the result of secession (as in Eritrea and South Sudan) not conquest. Norms and institutions may not preclude states from attempting conquest. But public attitudes, international law and institutions make them even less likely to succeed.
> *Empire state of mind*
> 
> Mr Putin has long been blind to these arguments. And he cares little for others’ interpretation of the past. “People with their own views on our country’s history might argue with me, but I think that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are practically one single people, no matter what others might say,” he declared in 2014, less than six months after he seized Crimea. Perhaps comments like these should have alerted Western powers to his wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine much sooner.
> But now that they have woken up, they seem determined to uphold the norms that have halted other countries from expanding their borders by force. Western countries have not sent their forces to fight in Ukraine. But they are supplying Ukraine with their most advanced conventional weapons, training its soldiers, funding its government, and attempting to cripple Mr Putin’s invasion with sanctions. On the 21st September, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, President Joe Biden put it bluntly: “If nations can pursue their imperial ambitions without consequences, then we put at risk everything this very institution stands for.”
> _Correction (October 25th): A previous version of this article misstated the number of interstate wars since 1992 with over 1,000 deaths. Sorry.
> 
> The data and code to replicate this analysis can be found __here__._


----------



## joeno

Knobby22 said:


> Chemical weapon labs. Highly illegal. Both China and Russia were witnesses that a number of them existed. Must be true eh?




Of course not! Identity is very important as you suggest. We need to believe in the freedom loving Americans! They surely have trustworthy faces and a history of telling the truth 😄


----------



## Knobby22

joeno said:


> Of course not! Identity is very important as you suggest. We need to believe in the freedom loving Americans! They surely have trustworthy faces and a history of telling the truth.



You prove my point, sir.


----------



## Belli

Came across this vlogger a while ago.  Have watched only some of his vids.  Has some interesting viewpoints.


----------



## joeno

Belli said:


> Came across this vlogger a while ago.  Have watched only some of his vids.  Has some interesting viewpoints.





US, Israel, Saudi Arabia... countries known for apartheid and genocide. We can never say anything bad about them or it's "racist" / gaslighted. But it's totally ok to fabricate lies, insult, threaten and humiliate Russians / Russia.

Anybody who has read a book knows who the real fascists and genocidal maniacs in this world are 🤫🤫🤫


----------



## JohnDe

joeno said:


> US, Israel, Saudi Arabia... countries known for apartheid and genocide. We can never say anything bad about them or it's "racist" / gaslighted. But it's totally ok to fabricate lies, insult, threaten and humiliate Russians / Russia.
> 
> Anybody who has read a book knows who the real fascists and genocidal maniacs in this world are 🤫🤫🤫


----------



## Belli

__





						The 14 Characteristics of Fascism, by Lawrence Britt, Spring 2003
					





					ratical.org
				




*Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
Supremacy of the Military
Rampant Sexism
Controlled Mass Media
Obsession with National Security
Religion and Government are Intertwined
Corporate Power is Protected
Labor Power is Suppressed
Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
Obsession with Crime and Punishment
Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
Fraudulent Elections*


----------



## mullokintyre

Belli said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The 14 Characteristics of Fascism, by Lawrence Britt, Spring 2003
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ratical.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
> Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
> Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
> Supremacy of the Military
> Rampant Sexism
> Controlled Mass Media
> Obsession with National Security
> Religion and Government are Intertwined
> Corporate Power is Protected
> Labor Power is Suppressed
> Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
> Obsession with Crime and Punishment
> Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
> Fraudulent Elections*



Hmmm, looks suspiciously like the management at Essendon Football Club.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog

Belli said:


> Came across this vlogger a while ago.  Have watched only some of his vids.  Has some interesting viewpoints.




It is one of the reason Russia wanted Ukraine.ukraine is an underdeveloped European country still relatively young and dirt poor: there is a reason Ukrainian girls are populating European prostitution, nice girls but mostly dirt poor and a mafia ruling the country.
Putin thought they would join(back) the mother country and bring new blood without the issues the EU has with its "new blood".


----------



## qldfrog

mullokintyre said:


> Hmmm, looks suspiciously like the management at Essendon Football Club.
> Mick



Are we talking Biden or Putin, or most probably both🥴
The note about sexism is disputable  and probably indicative of a woke origin.it is hard to see the nazi or stalin as strongly sexist, quite the opposite.


----------



## JohnDe

qldfrog said:


> It is one of the reason Russia wanted Ukraine.ukraine is an underdeveloped European country still relatively young and dirt poor: there is a reason Ukrainian girls are populating European prostitution, nice girls but mostly dirt poor and a mafia ruling the country.
> Putin thought they would join(back) the mother country and bring new blood without the issues the EU has with its "new blood".












						Prostitution in Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## bigdog

Suggest stopping shipments of oil from Russia to India


----------



## Belli

bigdog said:


> Suggest stopping shipments of oil from Russia to India


----------



## againsthegrain

joeno said:


> US, Israel, Saudi Arabia... countries known for apartheid and genocide. We can never say anything bad about them or it's "racist" / gaslighted. But it's totally ok to fabricate lies, insult, threaten and humiliate Russians / Russia.
> 
> Anybody who has read a book knows who the real fascists and genocidal maniacs in this world are 🤫🤫🤫



Its hilarious watching arm chair experts form opinions form 3rd or 4th hand information and you tube snippets. 

No country is perfect, however fascism, strong nationalism is very present and has been present in Russia for a long time. 

Not to say everybody else is a saint,  not saying Russia or America is any better.  You have the kkk in America and many strong neo nazi and soccer hooligan groups in Russia. 

In America racism is different, it is present in the streets and in everyday life but as soon as it reaches media it is a very disgusting topic. 

In Russia it is how it is,  clean white European looking Russians are above. If you are black brown or euro asian from Caucasus by appearance you stick out.  This will also concern other minorities which by appearance will not stick out but bring Ukrainian (obviously now) Polish, Czech or whatever will also make life different. 

If you are interested how it actually works you could start with some classic Russian cinema masterpieces,  I would recommend to start with 

Brat 1 / brother https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0118767/

Perfect example how Caucasus minorities are portrayed as gangsters and bad guys in the cities 

Vojna / War








						Voyna (2002) - IMDb
					

Voyna: Directed by Aleksey Balabanov. With Aleksey Chadov, Ian Kelly, Ingeborga Dapkunaite, Sergey Bodrov. During the bloody war in Chechnya, a British couple and two Russian soldiers are taken hostage by Chechen rebels. Two of the hostages are then released to bring the money for the British...




					m.imdb.com
				




A great movie about the Chechen war, from a Russian perspective but I think it has been portrayed very fairly and shown the good and bad on both sides Russians and Chechens

You just can't pretend to understand a culture form some youtube videos and some conspiracy theory texts 

No world power is a saint, almost had a tear reading how the poor Russians are being bashed


----------



## JohnDe

'We were deceived': From their cells in this POW camp, Russian soldiers break their silence
					

The ABC is given a rare look inside Ukraine's central prisoner of war camp, where Russia's hapless soldiers are stuck in an eerie half-world between the war's living and its dead.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## JohnDe

Her reaction is priceless and perfect.


----------



## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> Her reaction is priceless and perfect.




For a moment there I thought you were serious.
I mean it  is not surprising seeing as she is an actress.
That is, after all, what they are paid to do.


Mick


----------



## JohnDe

> President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that the weapons used by Russia's military should be modernised.
> 
> The Russian leader talked of competition between manufacturers and developers.
> 
> However, Ukraine's main intelligence unit has claimed that Iran is preparing to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Moscow.
> 
> Putin's comments come just days after Russia launched more than 50 missiles targeting critical facilities in Ukraine.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region has banned the sale of alcohol to members of the Russian military.

_... oh great, now_

_a black market will emerge_
_they'll break into civilian houses to steal_


----------



## joeno

againsthegrain said:


> Its hilarious watching arm chair experts form opinions form 3rd or 4th hand information and you tube snippets.
> 
> No country is perfect, however fascism, strong nationalism is very present and has been present in Russia for a long time.
> 
> Not to say everybody else is a saint,  not saying Russia or America is any better.  You have the kkk in America and many strong neo nazi and soccer hooligan groups in Russia.
> 
> In America racism is different, it is present in the streets and in everyday life but as soon as it reaches media it is a very disgusting topic.
> 
> In Russia it is how it is,  clean white European looking Russians are above. If you are black brown or euro asian from Caucasus by appearance you stick out.  This will also concern other minorities which by appearance will not stick out but bring Ukrainian (obviously now) Polish, Czech or whatever will also make life different.
> 
> If you are interested how it actually works you could start with some classic Russian cinema masterpieces,  I would recommend to start with
> 
> Brat 1 / brother https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0118767/
> 
> Perfect example how Caucasus minorities are portrayed as gangsters and bad guys in the cities
> 
> Vojna / War
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Voyna (2002) - IMDb
> 
> 
> Voyna: Directed by Aleksey Balabanov. With Aleksey Chadov, Ian Kelly, Ingeborga Dapkunaite, Sergey Bodrov. During the bloody war in Chechnya, a British couple and two Russian soldiers are taken hostage by Chechen rebels. Two of the hostages are then released to bring the money for the British...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.imdb.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A great movie about the Chechen war, from a Russian perspective but I think it has been portrayed very fairly and shown the good and bad on both sides Russians and Chechens
> 
> You just can't pretend to understand a culture form some youtube videos and some conspiracy theory texts
> 
> No world power is a saint, almost had a tear reading how the poor Russians are being bashed




What's hilarious is the intellectual arrog/ignor/ance of western society pundits who believe themselves to be educated, enlightened individuals speaking for truth... but actually are ~99% not. The opposite. Literal cannon fodder brainwashed out of their minds by relentless barrage of tabloid news & propaganda.

I agree no country is perfect.

But thinking Russia is THE place with "fascism, strong nationalism" and not bringing up more notable countries *wink* *wink* is hilarious.

It's funny western society has so much to say about Russia. With so much conviction. Surely these people are not arm chair experts but *real experts 😂*

RE: How the Caucasus minorities are treated. You realize one of the most notable Russian leaders: Stalin AND Lenin are minorities right? Stalin was ethnic Georgian. Lenin was part Asian. Their most revered athletes are Dagestani. One of the most famous Russian singers of all time was Korean.

Yes there are instances of racism against minorities in Russia. But please. Are we really pretending it's better in western countries? Please don't say this. It is beyond ridiculous and shows your level of understanding of Russia.


----------



## againsthegrain

joeno said:


> What's hilarious is the intellectual arrog/ignor/ance of western society pundits who believe themselves to be educated, enlightened individuals speaking for truth... but actually are ~99% not. The opposite. Literal cannon fodder brainwashed out of their minds by relentless barrage of tabloid news & propaganda.
> 
> I agree no country is perfect.
> 
> But thinking Russia is THE place with "fascism, strong nationalism" and not bringing up more notable countries *wink* *wink* is hilarious.
> 
> It's funny western society has so much to say about Russia. With so much conviction. Surely these people are not arm chair experts but *real experts 😂*
> 
> RE: How the Caucasus minorities are treated. You realize one of the most notable Russian leaders: Stalin AND Lenin are minorities right? Stalin was ethnic Georgian. Lenin was part Asian. Their most revered athletes are Dagestani. One of the most famous Russian singers of all time was Korean.
> 
> Yes there are instances of racism against minorities in Russia. But please. Are we really pretending it's better in western countries? Please don't say this. It is beyond ridiculous and shows your level of understanding of Russia.



uh ok, you got me there I give up you are right I am wrong, the Korean singer did it


----------



## Dona Ferentes

дєдовщина


joeno said:


> What's hilarious is  ..........Russia.



_Meantime, in the real world_

Sumska Oblast, Poltavska Oblast, Odeska Oblast, Chernivetska Oblast, Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast, Ternopil, Ternopilska Oblast, Volynska Oblast, Lviv, Lvivska Oblast, Kirovohradska Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Rivne, Rivnenska Oblast, Mykolaiv, Mykolayivska Oblast, Zakarpattia Oblast, Zhytomyr, Zhytomyrska Oblast(10:10). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
Comments
28 minutes ago
source

Chernihivska Oblast(10:09). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
Comments
Tell friends
29 minutes ago
source

Kyiv Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ivano-Frankivska Oblast, Cherkaska Oblast, Khmelnytska Oblast, Vinnytska Oblast(10:09). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
30 minutes ago
source

Kyiv(10:07). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
Comments
Tell friends
39 minutes ago
source

Kherson, Khersonska Oblast, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Zaporizka Oblast(09:59). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
Comments
Tell friends
7 hours ago
source

Zaporizka Oblast(03:33). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
8 hours ago
source

Zaporizka Oblast(02:44). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
Comments
Tell friends
9 hours ago
source

Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(02:02). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!
Comments
Tell friends
9 hours ago
source

Cherkaska Oblast, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Poltavska Oblast(02:01). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!


----------



## joeno

againsthegrain said:


> uh ok, you got me there I give up you are right I am wrong, the Korean singer did it



Don’t worry you don’t need to give up, you (and most people on this topic) had not much to begin with. Like saying a fictitious Russian mob movie from 1997 is supposed to expose the raci… well, you get it.


----------



## Value Collector

Knobby22 said:


> Chemical weapon labs. Highly illegal. Both China and Russia were witnesses that a number of them existed. Must be true eh?



I am not sure chemical weapon labs are illegal, I think using the weapons is, but even Canada have the ability to produce small amount of chemical warfare agents. I know this because I have personally visited their chemical warfare labs, and trained using live chemicals.


----------



## JohnDe

> Since Vladimir Putin ordered his tanks across the Ukrainian frontier in February, little has gone to plan. Russia’s blitzkrieg failed and the conflict became bogged down in months of grinding stalemate before Ukraine launched successful counter-offensivesin the east and south. The outcome of the war remains highly uncertain, and Mr Putin is under pressure. His desperate declaration of “partial mobilisation” led to protests across Russiaand the botched, illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces drew international ire. Below you will find our most recent coverage, in which we examine the conflict’s military aspects, as well as its ramifications for Ukraine, Russia and the wider world.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

The main cause of Russia's failure in it's invasion of Ukraine is endemic corruption in the Federation. 

This flows from the lowliest clerk in charge of septic tanks in any hamlet in any Oblast of Russia all the way up to the Supreme Commander Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.  

The resemblances to the routing of the Russian Army and Navy during the 1905 Russo-Japanese War are quite moot. 

Revolution followed.

A plaintiff letter from the 155th to the Governor. 








gg


----------



## bigdog

Yesterday Russian oil stocks extended their decline, as investors continued to gauge expectations of the sector’s profitability ahead of the EU’s oil embargo in December.

Vessel data compiled by Bloomberg indicated that weekly seaborne oil exports jumped to a five-month high in early November as sellers scrap to complete transactions before the start of restrictions.

*Besides halting oil imports, the embargo will prohibit European tankers from operating oil shipments to China and India.*


----------



## JohnDe

> *Russia says it is abandoning the southern city of Kherson*
> But is it a trap?
> 
> Eight months of brutal war have borne little fruit for Russia. It was beaten back from northern Ukraine in the spring. It was routed in Kharkiv province in September. Since the start of the war in February it has lost perhaps 80,000 men, killed and wounded. The only provincial capital it has managed to take is Kherson city, captured in the first week of war and illegally annexed in September. And now that, too, seems to be slipping from its grasp.
> 
> On November 9th Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, and General Sergei Surovikin, appointed as the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine weeks earlier, met Russian commanders and acknowledged that Russia’s position in Kherson had become untenable. The “most sensible option” in the circumstances, said General Surovikin, would be to establish a new defensive line on the eastern side of the Dnieper river. “Sergei Vladimirovich, I agree with your conclusions and suggestions,” replied a stony-faced Mr Shoigu. “For us, the lives of Russian servicemen are always a priority.”
> 
> Russia’s position in Kherson has been deteriorating for months. Ukraine launched a ground offensive in the province on August 29th, after weeks of precision attacks against the bridges needed to resupply Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnieper, where Kherson city lies. In early October Ukrainian troops made breakthroughs in the northern part of the front, eventually bringing the front line to within 30km of the city. By the end of the month Russian authorities said they had completed the evacuation of over 70,000 civilians to the east bank.
> 
> Ukrainian officials are sceptical that Russia is really prepared to withdraw without a fight. Many of them fear that the announcement is simply a ruse, intended to lure their army into urban combat. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said on November 9th, after the Russian declaration, that “We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight.” Certainly, Ukraine will not rush into the city. But it is clear that the noose has been tightening. On the same day the head of Russia’s puppet regime in Kherson acknowledged that Kirill Stremousov, his deputy, had been killed “in a car crash”. Numerous pro-Russian officials have died in recent months, many of them assassinated by Ukrainian partisans and special forces.
> 
> A withdrawal, if it really happens, would be humiliating both for Russia’s army, which is being steadily pushed back, and for Mr Putin, who declared Kherson to be an inalienable part of Russia just weeks ago. “Russia is here forever,” declared Andrei Turchak, secretary of United Russia, the Kremlin’s ruling party, speaking in Kherson in May. “There will be no return to the past.” Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya and lately a critic of the Kremlin’s war strategy, praised General Surovikin for a wise decision that had saved lives. But others were less forgiving.
> 
> On Telegram, a social-media forum popular among war commentators in Russia, “nationalist patriots” were furious. Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ex-convict who controls Wagner, a group of mercenaries, compared the situation in Kherson to the rout in Kharkiv: “Then too, there was no understanding of what was going on.” He cited one of his commanders as saying that Wagner would stay even if the army left. The Telegram channel “Operation Z”, which has a million subscribers, wrote: “****, why were we lied to?” There is also mounting anger at Russia’s recent mobilisation of some 300,000 more men. The wives and mothers of new recruits are travelling to the Russia-Ukraine border to demand that their husbands and sons be withdrawn.
> 
> On state television, retired generals offered the theory that the retreat was temporary. In truth, any lingering Russian hopes to advance, once more, on Mykolaiv, and thence westward to Odessa, have receded into fantasy. The retreat has some advantages. It allows Russia’s army to narrow the front and establish more defensible lines, as it waits for the newly mobilised recruits to arrive—indeed one official suggests that the withdrawal from Kherson and a switch to the defensive might have been one of General Surovikin’s conditions for taking the top job.
> 
> But it also brings parts of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, within range of longer-range rocket artillery, notes Rob Lee of King’s College, potentially playing havoc with Russian railway stations, ammunition depots and other facilities there. One well-informed official said that Ukraine had already advanced in Kherson, taking advantage of Russia’s drawdowns, but the extent of this progress is still unclear.
> 
> The withdrawal itself is yet to come. A retreat under fire—a “retrograde under contact”, in military parlance—is one of the most challenging tasks that any army can undertake. It can go horribly wrong; Russian forces suffered heavy casualties as they escaped from Lyman a month ago. Western and Ukrainian officials said in October that around 20,000 Russian troops were deployed on the western side of the Dnieper. Many are probably still there.
> 
> If Russia’s perimeter around Kherson city collapses, Ukraine will swiftly be able to bring its artillery forward, to within range of the bridges, pontoons and barges that represent the only escape route for Russian troops on the western side. These could then become death traps. Russia may anyway have to abandon or destroy large amounts of military equipment, since some bridges, damaged by months of relentless bombardment, cannot bear the weight of heavy vehicles. Some suspect that Russia may resort to human shields, mingling civilian and military traffic to deter Ukraine from striking.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> General Surovikin also hinted at another terrifying possibility. He warned Mr Shoigu that Ukraine’s armed forces had planned to create a flood zone below the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, which forms part of a 3km-long dam at Nova Kakhovka. In October Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, warned that Russia, in fact, had mined the dam. One aim might be to cover the Russian retreat by bogging down Ukrainian troops.
> 
> That would be a very risky strategy. Michael Kofman of cna, a think-tank, warns that the destruction of the dam would not only be “ecologically disastrous”, but it would also have a larger impact on eastern Kherson, which Russia seeks to retain, than on the western part of the province. It could also disrupt the supply of water to Crimea. “It would mean Russia essentially blowing its own foot off.”


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Neither the Ukrainian military nor President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed Russia's retreat from Kherson.

According to Ukraine's October assessment, there were 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops on Dnipro's right bank.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> Neither the Ukrainian military nor President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed Russia's retreat from Kherson.
> 
> According to Ukraine's October assessment, there were 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops on Dnipro's right bank.



Agree.

The Ukranians are much better at strategic information/propaganda management than the Vatniks. 

Zelenskyy beats ole Putin hands down on this score. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

It is now official. 

The Russians are withdrawing to the Left (Eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.

They are all hat and no herd, as shown in this video. 





Your browser is not able to display this video.





gg


----------



## Sean K

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is now official.
> 
> The Russians are withdrawing to the Left (Eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.
> 
> They are all hat and no herd, as shown in this video.
> 
> View attachment 149014
> 
> 
> gg




I think Russia's overall strategic plan was to only take everything east of the Dnipro from Kherson to Kharkiv. I think I put a map up of it in April in another thread. And I think Ukraine might eventually give it to them as part of a peace plan. Ukraine sound like they want to keep fighting though and they have NATO strongly invested so not sure how that unfolds.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

And a very measured, assertive reply from Zelenskyy to the withdrawal of the Vatniks.






Your browser is not able to display this video.





gg


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## Dona Ferentes

Wake up and look at the news : on Liveuamap, a bunch of flags showing multiple liberated villages in NE Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts.









						Ukraine Interactive map  - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
					

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...




					liveuamap.com
				




And best, click on each where there is a photo of the _*fellas*_, posing in front of some _geolocatable _reference, and most windows are intact. Towns not burnt down or destroyed by artillery exchanges.

Ukrainian control of information has been tight, so these images appear well after the fact.

Looks like the Russians have withdrawn from part of the northern banks of the Dnipro.


----------



## Craton

Dona Ferentes said:


> Wake up and look at the news : on Liveuamap, a bunch of flags showing multiple liberated villages in NE Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Interactive map  - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
> 
> 
> Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> liveuamap.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And best, click on each where there is a photo of the _*fellas*_, posing in front of some _geolocatable _reference, and most windows are intact. Towns not burnt down or destroyed by artillery exchanges.
> 
> Ukrainian control of information has been tight, so these images appear well after the fact.
> 
> Looks like the Russians have withdrawn from part of the northern banks of the Dnipro.



Good news but and not surprising, there are reports of Russian military blowing up critical civilian infrastructure in Kherson
 in wake of the "retreat" like hydro plant, bridges etc.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is now official.
> 
> The Russians are withdrawing to the Left (Eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.



I'm beginning to think the population of Kherson is in the tens of millions ..... the Russians said 98% of the population voted for incorporation into the motherland, yet ... yet, there seems to be rather large crowds joyously celebrating, in every city and town recently liberated.


----------



## JohnDe

Something fishy about that Russian implemented referendum



> *Inside Kherson as it celebrates liberation from Russia*
> 
> Crowds of euphoric residents lined the streets of Kherson on Saturday waving yellow and blue flags in greeting as their troops rolled into the city after eight months of brutal Russian occupation.
> 
> “Glory to the Ukrainian armed forces! Glory to Ukraine!” they chanted. A cardboard sign taped to a lamppost in Freedom Square read: “Putin kaput!”
> 
> Some of the Russian propaganda posters around the strategically important southern city had already been torn down in the hours since President Putin’s army made a hasty withdrawal on Friday morning. Teenagers posed for selfies in front of one hoarding that remained, their middle fingers extended towards its now outdated declaration: “Kherson is with Russia for ever!”
> 
> Kherson, which had a pre-war population of more than 280,000, was the only provincial capital that Russia had seized. Its loss is Putin’s most embarrassing defeat since he invaded Ukraine in February. Coming six weeks after he claimed the city for Russia in perpetuity, it is arguably the biggest personal humiliation of his 22-year rule.
> 
> Celebrations broke out across Ukraine on Friday after the Russians began to flee. In his nightly video address President Zelensky hailed the recapture of the city as a “historic day” and promised to restore medicine supplies and communications as soon as possible. “Life is returning,” he said.
> 
> In Kherson itself the jubilation was tempered by the danger posed by the Russian military presence just across the Dnipro river that flows around the back of the city.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Celebrations broke out across Ukraine on Friday after the Russians began to flee. Picture: REUTERS/Lesko Kromplitz
> 
> As we joined residents on the Ukrainian-controlled western side of the river, Russian soldiers opened fire from the opposite bank, forcing us to make a hasty retreat. About half an hour later Russian shells were heard in the distance.
> 
> When Putin’s army escaped, they blew up the Antonoviskyi bridge, the only road link across the Dnipro, to prevent a Ukrainian pursuit.
> 
> Not all the Russian soldiers got out in time. “Some of them are holed up in basements,” Zhenya, a Ukrainian soldier, said. “Our forces are working to neutralise them.”
> 
> Filled with adrenaline, residents shared raw memories of the misery inflicted by the occupiers.
> 
> “We lived in hell under the Russians,” said Serghii, 29. “There was no freedom. They took anyone who was pro-Ukrainian and tortured them. But I always believed our army would free us. Always.”
> 
> Dmytro, 25, had been less confident the liberation would come. “It was so terrifying to walk along the street and hear the screams of people being tortured. I’ll never be able to forget this,” he said. During the occupation, Russian soldiers had routinely stopped local residents and checked their phones, he added. “If they found even a hint that you were pro-Ukrainian, they locked you up and beat you.”
> 
> Another man, Evhen, said Russian soldiers had dragged him off the streets and beaten him for hours. “They threatened to cut my ear off,” he said.
> 
> Galyna, another local resident, said: “The occupants looted everything they could and sent it to Russia. What they couldn’t take, they destroyed.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Local resident Valentyna Buhaiova embraces Ukrainian marines in the recently retaken village of Kyselivka, outside of Kherson, Ukraine Picture: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
> 
> Russian-installed officials even forced Kherson’s residents to live by Russian time, an hour ahead of Ukraine. As darkness fell on Saturday evening, residents were unsure about what time it was. “We are all confused now,” said one. “Is is 6pm or 7pm?”
> 
> Because the retreating Russian forces cut off the power and the water supply, much of Kherson descended into darkness. People gathered at cafes powered by generators. In contrast to the joy in the city centre earlier, the mood was tense. A drunken man hurled a cup of tea at an elderly woman after she said her grandson had served in the Soviet army.
> 
> Imposing order on the liberated city is now an urgent priority. The head of the national police, Ihor Klymenko, wrote on Facebook that about 200 officers were setting up checkpoints, defusing unexploded ordnance and documenting evidence of possible war crimes.
> 
> Some residents collaborated with the occupying forces. Those who did face an uncertain future. Roman Holovnya, an adviser to Kherson’s mayor, pointed at a woman in a red coat. “She was kissing Russian soldiers!” he shouted.
> 
> Residents also spoke of firefights between Russian units. “The Chechens were fighting the Wagner mercenaries and the Russians were fighting the [Siberian] Buryat troops,” Roman said.
> 
> Seized by Russia’s army in early March, Kherson was spared the large-scale destruction witnessed in other Ukrainian towns and cities. The villages nearby are in ruins, however.
> 
> De-mining teams face an enormous task in ridding the city and the roads around it of improvised explosive devices.
> 
> Soldiers advancing towards Kherson also feared the celebrations would not last. “Putin is going to smash Kherson with cruise missiles, he’s going to destroy it,” one fighter, reeling with drink, said.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

This has changed from an Invasion/Special Military Operation to an existential crisis for Russia as leader of The Russian Federation. 

Their allied rats will jump soon.

And meanwhile in Moscow the Bolshoi, State Opera and Orchestra, Museums and Diversions for the hoi polloi continue to operate as normal. 

Shortly The Kremlin will be within 600km range of NAFO FELLAS artillery, HIMARS and hopefully missiles. 

Such is the ending of all empires. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This has changed from an Invasion/Special Military Operation to an existential crisis for Russia as leader of The Russian Federation.
> 
> Such is the ending of all empires.



the posturings of Kadrov (bit player, useful idiot) and Wagner Group financer Yevgeny Prigozhin, plus the role of what are termed _milbloggers_ (usually ultra-nationalist), are interesting. 

They are vehement in criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense for perceived failures and seem to operate independently of the Russian Armed Forces. Prigozhin is forming parallel military structures in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, plus opening offices in what he sees as recalcitrant cities , esp St Petersburg, where the local admin isn't behind the mobilisation (it seems the regions have to pay for the mobilisations themselves). Even the contemptible Girkin has raised a militia.

And Putin has gone quiet. Evidently the elite _Rosgvardia _(said to be more than 250,000 troops) that protect him are immune from service in the badlands.

Not a recipe for stability, when things go wrong.


----------



## JohnDe

Dona Ferentes said:


> the posturings of Kadrov (bit player, useful idiot) and Wagner Group financer Yevgeny Prigozhin, plus the role of what are termed _milbloggers_ (usually ultra-nationalist), are interesting.
> 
> They are vehement in criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense for perceived failures and seem to operate independently of the Russian Armed Forces. Prigozhin is forming parallel military structures in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, plus opening offices in what he sees as recalcitrant cities , esp St Petersburg, where the local admin isn't behind the mobilisation (it seems the regions have to pay for the mobilisations themselves). Even the contemptible Girkin has raised a militia.
> 
> And Putin has gone quiet. Evidently the elite _Rosgvardia _(said to be more than 250,000 troops) that protect him are immune from service in the badlands.
> 
> Not a recipe for stability, when things go wrong.




*Residents also spoke of firefights between Russian units. “The Chechens were fighting the Wagner mercenaries and the Russians were fighting the [Siberian] Buryat troops,” Roman said.*


----------



## Sean K

Seems like this is far more complicated than most would realise. When you also have a Georgian Legion and a Norman Brigades fighting for Ukraine, it's just a mess.


----------



## JohnDe

> *On what terms could the war in Ukraine stop*
> Pressure for peace talks is growing, even as Russia retreats from Kherson
> 
> Russia’s lightning attack on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, was a failure. Its creeping artillery war to seize the eastern region of Donbas has ground to a bloody halt. It has lost a chunk of stolen territory south of the city of Kharkiv, and this week announced a retreat from Kherson, the only provincial capital it had captured since its invasion in February. With each setback, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has sought new ways to torment Ukraine. The latest is a relentless bombardment that seeks to wreck Ukraine’s infrastructure. Residents of the capital have been told they may have to evacuate if the power grid collapses, halting water and sewage services.
> 
> Power cuts have not sapped Ukraine’s will to fight. But they are a reminder that, eight months after his unprovoked invasion, Mr Putin keeps looking for ways to raise the stakes. Some worry he might blow up a dam on the Dnieper river, as Stalin did in 1941, to slow his adversaries’ advance.
> 
> The ever-evolving Russian assault also raises an awkward question: how long will America and Europe keep providing Ukraine with the billions of dollars’ worth of military and economic aid it needs every month to fend Russia off? “For as long as it takes,” say Western leaders. But many of their citizens reject the idea of bankrolling an indefinite conflict with Russia. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Rome on November 5th, calling for an end to the fighting. “We don’t want war. No weapons, no sanctions. Where is diplomacy?” read one placard.
> 
> Wary Washington​In America, too, questions have been raised. Hard-left Democrats recently issued a call, swiftly retracted, for negotiations. Gains by America-first Republicans in the midterm elections on November 8th, although smaller than expected, are a reminder that American politics might change dramatically after the next presidential election, in two years’ time, and with it policy on Ukraine.
> 
> Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s national-security adviser, made an unannounced trip to Kyiv on November 4th to promise “unwavering” support. But he also urged Ukraine to think about future peace terms. It has since emerged that he has been in touch with his Russian counterparts, to warn them not to use nuclear weapons. On November 9th Mr Biden said Russia and Ukraine would “lick their wounds” after the battle for Kherson, and might then be ready for compromise. He insisted he would not tell Ukraine what to do.
> 
> In private, Western and Ukrainian officials are starting to ponder what a stable outcome might look like. Will Ukraine become a new Finland, forced to cede land to its invaders and to remain neutral for decades? Or another West Germany, with its national territory partitioned by war and its democratic half absorbed into nato? A much-discussed template is Israel, a country under constant threat that has been able to defend itself without formal alliances but with extensive military help from America.
> 
> The precise terms of any negotiated settlement depend on what happens on the battlefield. There is likely to be a lot more fighting before either side is ready to end the war. Russia and Ukraine have each lost, by one estimate, roughly 100,000 soldiers, killed and wounded, but both still hope to manoeuvre to a more favourable position.
> 
> The retreat from Kherson is a humiliation for Mr Putin. But it will give Russian forces a more easily defended line along the Dnieper river. Mr Putin shows no sign of throwing in the towel. He has mobilised hundreds of thousands more recruits. Some have been rushed into battle with little training or equipment to hold the line; the rest may be used for a renewed push next year.
> 
> Ukraine, for its part, hopes to maintain its momentum. Its army is getting reinforcements this winter, in the form of thousands of recruits trained by Britain and other Western countries. Western arms continue to arrive. On November 4th the Pentagon announced another arms package, worth $400m, including 45 refurbished t-72b tanks and 1,100 drones. The first new nasams anti-aircraft batteries were deployed this week.
> 
> The West’s stocks of weapons are not unlimited. European armies have eaten deep into theirs; even mighty America worries about eroding its own ability to fight future wars. It is Russia, however, that seems to face the most immediate shortages. It has used up most of its precision bombs and missiles, and is struggling to replace them because of sanctions. It is obtaining fresh weapons from the likes of Iran and perhaps North Korea. (China has so far heeded American warnings to stay out of the war.)
> 
> Cold calculation​Mr Putin is hoping his campaign to destroy Ukraine’s electricity grid will freeze the country into submission, or at least turn it into a weak, failing state. But the evidence of past conflicts is that aerial bombing of civilians, in the absence of an effective ground campaign, rarely secures victory. Nearly 90% of Ukrainians want the country to keep fighting.
> 
> In Russia, according to the Levada Centre, a pollster, only 36% want to press on with the war, whereas 57% favour peace talks. At the same time, support for Mr Putin remains at 79%. Russians, it seems, would like the war to end but, starved of impartial news, do not blame Mr Putin for it. Still, the more he tries to dragoon them into fighting, the more he risks losing popular support.
> 
> Ukraine’s more avid Western supporters think that, with time, Ukraine will become stronger, and Russia weaker. But Mr Putin is hoping that “General Winter” will somehow revive his fortunes, if not by weakening Ukraine’s will to fight then by gnawing at the West’s readiness to support it, as the heating bills balloon in Europe.
> 
> Mr Putin claims that he is ready to negotiate (from the starting point that the West should recognise his theft of Ukrainian territory) but that Ukraine’s Western “masters” have prevented it from talking. The two sides held lengthy talks after Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and part of Donbas in 2014. They talked again in the spring, as Russia besieged Kyiv. But Ukraine set its face against further negotiations after Russia’s retreat from Kyiv in April revealed widespread atrocities against civilians. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, suggested this week that talks could be revived, but only if Russia was willing to give back Ukrainian land, pay compensation and accept responsibility for war crimes.
> 
> The West is vague about its own aims. Mr Biden has at times mused about wanting to see Mr Putin ousted from power; at others he has talked about finding “off-ramps” for the Russian leader. He defined his goals most clearly in a guest article in the _New York Times_ in May: “a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression”. Notably, that left out the question of Ukraine’s borders. Western leaders say this is for Ukraine to decide; their aim is to strengthen its negotiating hand.
> 
> More recently, though, Ukraine’s backers have sounded more specific. In a statement on October 11th, leaders of the g7 group of industrialised countries offered their “full support to Ukraine’s independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty in its internationally recognised borders”. They demanded that Russia “completely and unconditionally withdraw” from all seized lands. Among other things, they pledged to find ways of using seized Russian assets to help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In need of a break
> 
> “The g7 statement is basically a demand for total Russian surrender, which is not a plausible diplomatic outcome. Diplomacy by definition involves give and take. The expectation should not be another Treaty of Versailles,” says Samuel Charap of the rand Corporation, an American think-tank, referring to the punitive terms imposed on Germany at the end of the first world war. The West, Ukraine and Russia, he argues, should start talking, if only to set the groundwork for more substantive negotiations in future: “Fighting and talking at the same time should be the norm.”
> 
> Many disagree. “Keep up the pressure. Don’t be in a hurry to draw lines on a map. It would be bureaucratic suicide. Somebody will put it up on Twitter alongside the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact,” retorts Dan Fried of the Atlantic Council, another American think-tank, alluding to Nazi Germany’s and the Soviet Union’s carve-up of Poland in 1939.
> 
> Few Western leaders question Ukraine’s ambition to recapture the territory lost since Russia invaded in February. Many would support efforts to reclaim the parts of Donbas seized in 2014. But opinion is more divided when it comes to reconquering Crimea. Many worry that the prospect of losing the peninsula might prompt a dangerous escalation from Mr Putin.
> 
> To some in the Biden administration, the war is a matter of principle: territory should never be seized by force, so all Russian gains must be reversed. Others, doubting Ukraine’s ability to reconquer much more, think the time for diplomacy is soon. Either way, America is in no rush to spell out diplomatic positions that might cause rifts in the pro-Ukraine camp.
> 
> Another pressing concern is the nature of future Western security guarantees for Ukraine. They will need to be robust given that Russia will probably remain a threat to Ukraine for as long as Mr Putin is in power, if not longer. Several central and eastern European countries favour Ukraine’s rapid admission to nato, on the grounds that the alliance’s commitment to mutual defence would firmly deter Russia. For all its nuclear menaces, it has so far refrained from overtly striking nato territory.
> 
> The Biden administration, though, is wary of having to extend its nuclear umbrella to a country in a state of latent or actual conflict with Russia. Throughout, Mr Biden has been careful to minimise the risk of a direct nato-Russia conflict for fear that it would lead to “World War III”. Several nato members in western Europe are similarly sceptical.
> 
> So attention has turned to interim, or alternative, arrangements. In September Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former secretary-general of nato, and Andriy Yermak, Mr Zelensky’s chief of staff, proposed a “Kyiv Security Compact” which would offer security assistance short of a mutual-defence pact. Some in Ukraine considered it a betrayal. Modelled on Western support for Israel, about which Mr Zelensky has spoken, the compact would strengthen Ukraine’s armed forces—in effect turning the current ad hoc support into a systematic, long-term commitment.
> 
> Ukraine’s partners would promise “multi-decade” investments in the country’s defence industry, massive weapons transfers, training, joint exercises and intelligence support. The compact would require neither Russia’s assent nor Ukraine’s neutrality. It would not preclude nato membership. In some circumstances, there could be military intervention to help Ukraine. If it were attacked, the signatories would “use all elements of their national and collective power and take appropriate measures—which may include diplomatic, economic and military means.” A wider group of countries, including Asian allies, would reinforce such military assistance with sanctions on Russia, including provisions to “snap back” any of the current penalties that may be lifted as part of a deal.
> 
> Even this may be too ambitious for Team Biden. Some ask, for instance, what commitments Ukraine would take on, by way of reforms to strengthen democracy, say, or to fight corruption. The parallel with Israel is imperfect. Among other things, Israel is a nuclear power and occupies Arab land. For Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in Kyiv, the Israeli model “is not only about mobilising our partners externally; it’s also about explaining to people what it means to live next door to a crazy neighbour, to existential threats.”
> 
> The sky must be the limit​Whatever the diplomatic template, Russia’s blitz has proved that the West will need to help Ukraine create a properly integrated and layered air-defence system, mixing fighter aircraft, surface-to-air batteries and shoulder-launched weapons. At the moment weapons are arriving piecemeal and often cannot exchange data. There are also worries about Ukraine running out of certain types of air-defence munitions. If that were to happen Russia could then deploy much more air power in support of ground troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Uncertain harvest
> 
> Ukraine’s mix-and-match weapons—a “Mr Potato Head” arsenal, as some call it—cause problems elsewhere. For instance, it has no fewer than 14 different types of artillery pieces, with an average brigade operating four different sorts. “This is a logistical nightmare for them, especially when we talk about ammunition,” says Nick Reynolds of rusi, a British think-tank. Some of the weapons are wearing out badly, and Europe’s defence industry, sapped by decades of low spending, is poorly placed to produce spare parts. “Red lights are flashing in terms of that support being available,” adds Mr Reynolds.
> 
> How long the war goes on depends mainly on Mr Putin. He is in a bind, both in Ukraine and at home. Moderate technocrats are worried about the strains on the economy; “national patriots” such as Yevgeny Prigozhin, who commands the Wagner mercenary group, have called for purges of supposedly treacherous generals.
> 
> A pause to play at diplomacy may suit Mr Putin for a time—particularly if it allows him to consolidate some territorial gains. That may explain his recent toning down of nuclear rhetoric and his sudden casting of Ukrainians as victims of Western aggression. “The West is throwing Ukrainians into a furnace”; Russia, in contrast, “has always treated Ukrainian people with respect,” Mr Putin declared on November 4th. (His propagandists and officials, though, still talk of “de-Satanising” Ukraine.) The shift fits another of Mr Putin’s guises, as the champion of a global movement to cast off Western dominance.
> 
> In all this Mr Putin is seeking to woo waverers, especially in the global South. He also wants to reassure friends such as China and India, which have made plain their disapproval of his nuclear recklessness. Above all Mr Putin is interested in reaching one rich-world listener: Donald Trump, whose allies in Congress question American aid to Ukraine and who may soon announce another run for president.
> 
> For all his setbacks, Mr Putin is not yet out of options to persecute Ukraine and try to divide the West. Militarily, he could commit more of his air force and mobilise more troops. In the covert “grey zone” he could sabotage undersea gas pipelines and internet connections to the West, conduct bigger cyber-attacks, interfere with communications satellites and step up disinformation campaigns. He could also sink ships carrying grain from Ukraine. Ultimately, he could use tactical nuclear weapons. All this, though, would come at heavy cost: it would make Russia even more of a pariah, weaken him at home and might provoke harsh retaliation.
> 
> The stakes are higher for Mr Putin than for the West. But they are highest for Ukrainians, many of whom mistrust the very idea of talks with Russia and see military victory as their only option—even if it takes years to achieve. The more land it can regain, Ukraine reckons, the greater the chance of getting rid of Mr Putin. Yet that same prospect alarms many in the West: a rout of the Russian army might be what pushes Mr Putin to go nuclear. That is one reason why Team Biden long ago stopped talking about helping Ukraine “win”.
> 
> As it has often done with Israel, America may at some point try to limit Ukraine’s ambitions. It need not do so overtly; it can simply withhold the arms Ukraine needs, as it already does to an extent. It declines to provide Western aircraft, Patriot air-defence missiles and longer-range atacms strike missiles for fear that they might goad Russia to use nuclear weapons.
> 
> All this explains why some Ukrainians have been circulating a bittersweet message issued to Finnish troops in 1940 at the end of the “Winter War” with the Soviet Union by their commander, Carl Gustaf Mannerheim. The vastly outnumbered Finns had inflicted heavy losses on Soviet forces but nonetheless had to cede territory because help from their friends had dried up, Mannerheim wrote, signing off with the words, “We are proudly conscious of the historic duty which we shall continue to fulfil; the defence of that Western civilisation which has been our heritage for centuries, but we know also that we have paid to the very last penny any debt we may have owed the West.”
> 
> Ukraine’s fate depends not just on the valour of its soldiers or resilience of its people, but also on external factors it cannot control: the inscrutable calculations of Russia’s despotic ruler and the fortitude of its friends. The benefits to the West of the war are already clear. Russia has been enormously weakened, making Europe’s flank much easier to defend. For Ukraine, which has suffered horrific losses, the outcome looks much less certain.


----------



## noirua

Two rockets hit grain dryers in Poland on border with Ukraine, Polish radio claims​








						Two rockets hit grain dryers in Poland on border with Ukraine, Polish radio claims
					

It was not specified who fired the rockets




					tass.com


----------



## againsthegrain

noirua said:


> Two rockets hit grain dryers in Poland on border with Ukraine, Polish radio claims​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Two rockets hit grain dryers in Poland on border with Ukraine, Polish radio claims
> 
> 
> It was not specified who fired the rockets
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tass.com



Washington has not officially confirmed it was Russian missiles, most likely yes but the media is really jumping too quick on all the conclusions


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> Washington has not officially confirmed it was Russian missiles, most likely yes but the media is really jumping too quick on all the conclusions



Or even silo explosion..i doubt..but Poland has all interest to turn the heat on..as already discussed, we are turning toward a world of US diminishing, XI number one and Mexico, Turkey and Poland feeding on the remnant of the West, with Iran as a wild card and India in its ownregion.
Poland would be very keen for NATO to be involved so very biaised
Peace is a very long way in Europe but you get what you seed


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> Or even silo explosion..i doubt..but Poland has all interest to turn the heat on..as already discussed, we are turning toward a world of US diminishing, XI number one and Mexico, Turkey and Poland feeding on the remnant of the West, with Iran as a wild card and India in its ownregion.
> Poland would be very keen for NATO to be involved so very biaised
> Peace is a very long way in Europe but you get what you seed



I don't think there is any silos there,  I think it might turn into a game of blame like the plane that was shot down over Ukraine.  Russians and Ukrainians blame each other and use a same type of a missile.. hmm too hard to make opinion atm


----------



## joeno

againsthegrain said:


> Washington has not officially confirmed it was Russian missiles, most likely yes but the media is really jumping too quick on all the conclusions



Not confirmed. But assuming it is of Russian source, it hit a village about as close to Ukraine as possible. A bad mistake but still a mistake.


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## Garpal Gumnut

The Russians are Nazis and not in a military position to negotiate due to weakness. 

Their imperialist ideology has been embraced for centuries by the majority of the Russian people. 

Trying to drag NATO, by sending a missile close to and in to Poland,  in to the conflict enables Putin to put the nuclear option back on the table with the backing of every vodka soaked peasant in the empire. 

The drum of war beats on. 

Putin’s bluff needs calling out. 

Who knows what will happen. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

If it was deliberate I can't see what the purpose is. It should just firm up NATOs support for Ukraine and weaken Russia's position. Even if it's an accident, it's good for Ukraine. Agree GG it could lead to Putin waving his nukes around again, but if he does actually use a tactical nuke I think he'll lose all legitimacy and probably China.


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## Belli

None of us know whether if it was deliberate or not or even if it was Russia the assumption being it was given the number of missiles launched at the time.  So it's all speculation at this stage.

I have read elsewhere, Russia was been informed ages ago what the consequences would be for any deliberate act against NATO.  It doesn't involve nuclear weapons.  NATO has sufficient conventional weapons available to result in the Black Sea Fleet being sunk within 48 hours and all Russian assets outside of Russia itself being fair game.


----------



## JohnDe

Poland's minister of foreign affairs September 28, 2022 -



> *Poland and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs*
> 
> Max Bergmann: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. I am Max Bergmann. I am the director of the Europe program and the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies here at CSIS.
> 
> Thank you so much for joining us today for this very special event. We are honored to host His Excellency Zbigniew Rau, the minister of foreign affairs of the Republic of Poland, and I was told just before this that this is the first time we’ve hosted a minister of foreign affairs from Poland for more than a decade. So it’s a real honor to have you, sir, and we hope that this becomes a more frequent stomping ground for Polish foreign ministers and other Polish leaders as they come through Washington.
> 
> The topic of today’s discussion could not be more timely. It is Poland and the war in Ukraine, and Poland has been unwavering in its commitment to supporting Ukraine in its fight to defend itself from Russian aggression.
> 
> Since Russia launched its illegal invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, Poland has accepted millions of Ukrainian refugees into their countries, some estimates of more than 3.5 million. Poland has worked relentlessly to provide adequate resources, including education, to the new arrivals.
> 
> Poland has also allowed its territory to serve as a staging ground for one of the largest military assistance efforts since World War II, and in terms of bilateral aid, Poland has led the way, providing nearly $3 billion worth of aid in total with 1.8 billion (dollars) of that coming in direct military assistance to Ukraine. And Poland has also, we shouldn’t forget, demonstrated its commitment to NATO and European security in announcing it will increase its defense spending to 3 percent. So when it comes to defense and foreign policy and the future of European security in the wake of this war, I could not think of anyone better to have the minister of foreign affairs from Poland.
> 
> Let me say a brief word about his background. In 1980, Minister Rau joined the Solidarity trade union that played the leading role in Poland’s transition to democracy at the end of the Cold War. He became a lawyer and a professor of law, serving as the head of the Department of Political and Legal Doctrines and the Alexis de Tocqueville Center for Political and Legal Thought at the Lodz University. He formerly served as a senator, governor, and member of parliament representing Poland’s Lodz province.
> 
> And so this is a tremendous honor to have him here. And will you please join me in welcoming Minister Rau to the podium? Thank you, sir. (Applause.)
> 
> Zbigniew Rau: Thank you. Good afternoon, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much, Mr. Bergmann, for your introduction and kind words of welcome.
> 
> Let me begin by expressing my gratitude for your gracious invitation to speak here at the Center of Strategic and International Studies to speak about the strategic crossroads at which we, Poland, and the free world find ourselves.
> 
> I sincerely believe that you more than anyone else will understand my message that imperialism continues to be the ultimate threat to freedom and the core values of a free world. You understand this because you know it. This nation, the United States of America, has risen, developed, and become the sole global power through its rejection of all forms of imperialism and its continuing struggle for freedom against empire builders.
> 
> Many great American leaders – from George Washington to Woodrow Wilson, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton –believed that victory over imperialism was ultimate. In that same vein, many Poles believed that their struggle against foreign empires led to the lasting victory.
> 
> It was exactly this belief that brought Tadeusz Kościuszko and Casimir Pulaski to revolutionary America. For the same reason many other Poles took part in endless European wars and uprisings against empires simply following the motto, for your freedom and ours.
> 
> All of them knew that they found themselves in the middle of a battle between good and evil, right and wrong – between individual freedom, self-determination, national independence, on the one side; and enslavement, domination and spheres of influence on the other. Thirty years ago, with the fall of communism, we all hoped that the age of empires and imperialism was finally over and that from – and that from then on, Europe would be one whole and at peace. Today, we know that we were wholly wrong and that once again we must rise up and unite against an ever-reviving imperial hydra – Russian imperialism and its attempts to subordinate Ukraine.
> 
> Ladies and gentlemen, America became great when it succeeded in stopping imperialism – first British, then Nazi Germany, and finally, Soviet. You free Americans are the anti-thesis of imperialism that built this country for your freedom and ours. This is exactly the same foundation upon which Poland is built. Our common mission of fighting imperialism has not been accomplished yet.
> 
> For my generation, it was President Ronald Reagan, who helped Americans rediscover their core identity, leading the free world by stopping
> 
> imperialism. He was convinced that the United States would never succeed unless it stayed true to its origins – a shining city upon freedom hill.
> 
> I fondly recall watching his farewell address on January 11, 1989. He recognized as his greatest achievement the restoration of American authority in the free world. The foreign policy pursued by Reagan during his time – his time in office produced a monumental dividend for America and the free world, including my country.
> 
> This crusader for democracy was not afraid to openly declare the ultimate objective in the West showdown that he led against Soviet imperialism – restoring freedom, which, as he believed, I, quote, “is not the sole prerogative of lack of view, but the inalienable and universal right of all human beings seeking self-determination.”
> 
> When Reagan delivered these words, Poland was the European linchpin upon which the success of his strategy rested. Today, that measure of success rests on Ukraine. Reagan’s words and vision were supported not by promises, but by his will to act and not just in the Hollywood sense.
> 
> It’s my firm conviction that if he were with us today, he would not question the idea of supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes to restore freedom and secure basic rights. He would commit to this course just as he invested in Central Europe’s push for sovereignty and democracy. His words spoken about Poland are all the more true today in the context of the war in Ukraine, which is now the one being – I use his words again – “magnificently unreconciled to oppression.”
> 
> Ladies and gentlemen, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine mark the end of an era in European history dominated by the conviction that another great war on the continent cannot happen given the traumatic experience of the 20th century while all European nations share a desire for peace. Faced with a tragic turn of events, we have come to realize that imperialism is not just a historic category, but the life blood of the modern world affecting each and every one of us, however differently, with its destructive power. Moreover, it has also become clear that imperialism cannot be integrated with the free world on a permanent basis, let alone in a harmonious way.
> 
> So, we cannot build a stable peace by turning a blind eye to imperial ambitions, inclinations, and mere habits; and by assessing to reasoning and acting in terms of spheres of influence; or by acknowledging historical entitlements or particular economic interests of the most powerful states. Freedom and democracy cannot be defended by entering into a compromise
> 
> or compact with imperial authoritarianism because it will not stop striving for its ultimate triumph over freedom and democracy.
> 
> Imperialism must be stopped and defeated. Otherwise, it will be a constant threat to the free world.
> 
> Ladies and gentleman, Russian aggression against Ukraine triggered a tectonic shift in the transatlantic area. It initiated unprecedented solidarity among the nations of a free world to defend sovereignty and democracy in Ukraine.
> 
> In the face of this war Poland was the first to help Ukraine. We became her closest frontline partner, humanitarian supplier, and logistical hub. Not only are we the first among the European allies to send military donations to Ukraine, but we are second behind the United States in all military support.
> 
> My country also became a refuge and safe haven for over 3 million Ukrainian women and children. Even though Ukraine’s military situation has improved since February 24th, we continue to house about 2 million Ukrainians. We are also building temporary homes in Ukraine for 20,000 people made homeless by the Russian invasion.
> 
> I want to emphasize that Poland’s reason for providing this unparalleled aid stems from a synthesis of two approaches – top down and bottom up.
> 
> The first approach deals with how Poland incorporated these refugees into its social care network – enrolling children in schools, providing state health care and identification numbers, enabling access to all services and to work legally.
> 
> The second approach refers to the unprecedented compassion of everyday Poles, who opened their hearts and homes to refugees, taking them in and providing them with much-needed compassion, comfort, and solidarity.
> 
> Ladies and gentlemen, every Pole is an expert on understanding what fighting for freedom, democracy, and existential survival means. This is the case since, in our part of the world, the notion of independence means freedom from Russia. All too often this very unique Central European experience including that of my Polish compatriots fell on deaf ears, including in this town and in our Western capitals.
> 
> I recall the reaction to a piece that I published not so long ago with my close friend, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in “Politico” in which we warned about the threats posed to peace in Europe by the Nord Stream project. Both Berlin and Washington did not want to hear it.
> 
> Shortly thereafter, Russia waged its war in Ukraine and now we, in Europe, are in the midst of an energy crisis.
> 
> Ladies and gentlemen, speaking here at CSIS it is impossible not to mention Professor Zbigniew Brzezinski, one of the founding fathers of this institute. He was aware, like no one else, that Russia was a dormant volcano. He knew that unless democracy and respect for the freedom of our nations took root, it would erupt anew, flooding Europe with its imperial lava.
> 
> What this tells me is how much we miss the wisdom, experience, and foresight of Zbig Brzezinski, one of America’s leading strategists and an astute student of Central and Eastern Europe. Perhaps he was the one in Washington who best understood what lay behind Russia’s imperial drive both from the historic aspect and in the modern geopolitical context.
> 
> For him, the bellwether was always Moscow’s designs towards Ukraine, as he assumed without Ukraine there would be no Russian empire. More importantly, the very existence of an independent Ukraine leaning heavily towards the West would also transform Russia. But a Ukraine suborned and subordinated automatically would change Russia’s status to an empire.
> 
> Regaining control over Ukraine, its people, resources, and its access to the Black Sea would mean that Moscow once again became a threat to Europe, transatlantic security, and, ultimately, to the United States.
> 
> By the way, I found this same argument – the same argument – in the mode of thinking of my personal friend, the late President Lech Kaczyński, who on many occasions warned us that the bouts of Russian imperialism would not stop in Tbilisi or Kyiv but would reach the Baltic states and, finally, Poland.
> 
> I would also like to add here that Russia wouldn’t even stop there but it would threaten the life, wellbeing, and core values of all Europeans and Americans. Russian imperialism would not stop on its own but must be stopped by a joint effort of the free world.
> 
> Only by stopping imperialism together can Ukraine, Poland, and the United States flourish. Most importantly, they will guarantee that future generation(s) will not experience the threat of authoritarian imperialism. Let’s do this together. Thank you. (Applause.)
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Thank you, Minister Rau, for those comments. And thank you also for joining me in what should be a free and frank discussion. Let’s just pretend the cameras aren’t here and people – and there’s no audience.
> 
> And with that, I want to maybe start with a question that hits on the topic of the day that is, I think, rattling much of Europe. It’s a lot of active social media speculation, and that’s pipelines – pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Of course, today was sort of a monumental day where Poland completed a pipeline that will allow Norwegian gas to now come into Poland. Yet, we’ve also seen over the last two days three explosions in the Nord Stream 2 pipelines – Nord Stream 2 first; now Nord Stream 1 has been fully taken offline, with speculation that this had to be caused deliberately by an explosion. So I want to ask you: What caused these explosions? Do you have anything – information to reveal? What do you think is going on here?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, I was about to say crucial for the explanation of this event is the context in which it’s taking place. So we are in the middle of energy crisis caused by Russia. Poland, unlike many other European states – at least in the last 10 years – has been trying to do its best in order to make the country independent from Russia’s gas deliveries, and the opening of a Baltic Pipe that took place earlier this morning is the best indication of that.
> 
> Now, you’re asking me what caused the three explosions. Well, certainly an international investigation has to be launched. But if I – well, if you’re asking me about my more personal opinion, I can tell you that the timing of these three explosions are very meaningful, so to speak. Russia has lost operational initiative on the ground in Ukraine. At the same time, the Baltic Pipe has started working. The explosions took place very close to the Danish territorial waters, but not within the Danish territorial waters, because if this were the case this would be an intrusion into the NATO territory, right?
> 
> So what’s the conclusion of all of that? Intellectual honesty requires us not to exclude sabotage. And if this were the case, this would mean that someone wanted to perhaps intimidate Baltic Sea states. With the exception of Russia, right now all of them are already NATO member states or aspiring NATO member states. The other thing – the other element that has to be taken into account is that these explosion(s) certainly as you are saying about the reactions of the social media, and so it drove attention of the international public opinion from the events in Ukraine. So, when we put all of these things together, we can – we are not in a position to reject the notion that this could be an element of Russian hybrid war against NATO.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: And so just to follow up on that, I mean, does that raise any concerns that you might have about the security of your energy infrastructure or the energy infrastructure of Europe?
> 
> Min. Rau: Oh, certainly. You know, we in Poland happen to believe – and so far we are right – that Russia is ready and capable of weaponizing any aspect of bilateral relations with each and every NATO state or with NATO as a whole
> 
> or the European Union as a whole. If you bear in mind that these four lines of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 cross somewhere under the surface of the water Baltic Pipe, this would be a clear indication that the same could happen to the newly-opened pipeline.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: I want to stick with energy for a minute before turning to Ukraine because you had a call recently with Secretary of State Antony Blinken where U.S.-Polish energy cooperation was discussed. Poland is pursuing nuclear. I’m curious, maybe you could talk about the steps that Poland is taking to confront the energy crisis in Europe.
> 
> Min. Rau: There is a consensus in Poland that if we are looking for clear energy, if you want to give up our energy system primarily – which was primarily based on coal, the nuclear power plants constitutes the only reasonable alternative. Of course, in our energy mix in the future the renewables are going to play a considerable role, but it would be – and this is our strong conviction – it would be too hazardous to base our newly-created energy system on the foundation that is so much dependable upon the weather. So we share the position of those in Europe, especially that of France, that nuclear energy is the best solution in this case.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: And just an extension of this to maybe tie this back to Russia. There’s been a lot of speculation that – or, informed speculation/analysis that part of what Vladimir Putin is hoping with cutting off gas through Nord Stream 1 to Russia – or, to Europe, that Europe will buckle; that the increase in energy prices will lead to protests and a recession in Europe, which will prompt European leaders to push to get rid of sanctions and push Ukraine to give in and negotiate. Do you think Europe has the political will? Do you think Vladimir Putin will be proven correct here? What does the spine of Europe look like to you?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, so far it’s difficult to assume that President Putin was correct in his – in his expectations and in his estimations. As I said in my introductory remarks, the transatlantic community showed unprecedented unity here. Of course, there are some expectations, I believe, perhaps too pessimistic expectations, that given the energy crisis, given the difficult situation in the wintertime, that so-called war fatigue can bring some of our European partners and allies to start thinking and acting in the direction of putting pressure on Ukraine to negotiate and to in fact bring Russia to the negotiating table. But so far, so far, I don’t see any signs that would cause me to believe that this is a likely development. It's possible. But so far, we have been together in unity in our reaction to the Russian aggression. And I believe we have a good chance to stay this way.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: You mentioned in your remarks Zbigniew Brzezinski, formerly of CSIS, who – and his comment that Russia without Ukraine ceases to be a great power. And your remarks –
> 
> Min. Rau: Imperial power.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Imperial power. In your remarks, pointing to the need to stop Russian imperialism, do you think that part of Putin’s mobilization in Ukraine is purely driven by the need to reclaim Ukraine as – Russia as an imperial power? Is that what is motivating him right now in Ukraine, to call this mobilization?
> 
> Min. Rau: That’s a pertinent, but very difficult question. Because, well, let me put this this way. The only reasonable reason for launching this mobilization would be the will to prevail in Ukraine on the ground. Because so far, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to regain operational initiative vis-à-vis Russian – the best-trained and the best-equipped troops. And they proved to be victorious in this effort. So the only way to change the course of events was, you know, mobilization.
> 
> Whether it’s a very promising move from the military point of view, I’m not a military analyst, but following common sense, it doesn’t seem a very good solution because if the Ukrainians manage to defeat well-trained and well-equipped Russian soldiers, what do they think what’s the chance that those who are worse trained, obviously – and so far we see it, certainly at least for some time – worse equipped, are going to prevail?
> 
> But you’re asking difficult questions because I suppose that – so, it’s rather unreasonable to expect a breakthrough at the battlefields in Ukraine as a result of the mobilization. But I would expect a true breakthrough, if at all, on the domestic front in Russia. Because it’s more than obvious that Russian society, which so far has been supporting the idea of war in Ukraine, between 70 and 80 percent of them they were identifying themselves with the Russian leaders in supporting the war.
> 
> But they didn’t consider that their own personal – the war was taking place somewhere relatively far away from Russian borders. But now, as a result of a – of a mobilization, each and every Russian family would be forced to think and to discuss the reasonable – or, I mean, discuss the reason for this war, because their loved ones are going to be sent there to be killed or wounded, but rather not be victorious there. And this is something that, obviously we see the first signs of it, will start first private social debate, social discourse, which sooner or later will certainly become public.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: So, yes, let’s talk a bit about the internal situation within Russia, and the situation Putin finds himself in. I completely agree with you that mobilizing – and, you know, we have our own experience with the social discord that having a draft and calling people up. But in our experience of Vietnam, that happened over time. It was sort of slowly introduced, also at recruiting ages of younger people. Not men in their thirties and forties that have families and are the breadwinners of their family unit, then suddenly being pulled to the battlefield with having children to care for.
> 
> It strikes me as extremely – creating tremendous upheaval in Russia and doing so without mobilizing for war before a special military operation. Do you think that this could lead to real trouble for Vladimir Putin in his internal situation? How do you assess the internal stability of that regime?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, before I try to answer your question, I have to disagree with you. Of course, you are referring to your – the American experience in the late ’60s and the early ’70s. So I was around at that time. So first of all, I wouldn’t compare the – OK, there was a common draft at that time in the United States. That’s true. But this is – the only element of this common denominator you are talking about. Because when you think how at that time – how the mobilization was conducted.
> 
> Which means, following what kinds of procedures. Of course, some of the young people who disagreed as citizens with idea that it made sense to fight over in Vietnam for the cause that was not clear to everyone. It was clear to people in my country, I assure you. But the reaction was that small numbers, small percentage of young people were driving to Canada, for example, right? But you cannot compare that with the sudden exodus at the Russian borders with Kazakhstan, with Georgia, with Finland. On the other hand, at that time in your country mass demonstrations were taking place and they were protected by the police force rather than contained or dispersed, right? And the other thing: In today’s Russia, if you compare the number of young people who are leaving Russia at any price to those who are demonstrating publicly – so – (laughs) – there is no comparison here in terms of numbers.
> 
> Now, going back – going back to your – to your main question, well, I don’t want to speculate, quite frankly, because you can assume that polls are not very objective on such issues as predicting the internal social developments in Russia. But one thing is more than obvious already now: the way Russian authorities, Russian state agendas, Russian institutions – which means the part of the Russian state – are handling the mobilization issue and the protests indicates something that we already know about Russian military forces. It’s not a well-ordered, functional state machinery, not to mention that it doesn’t seem to be very trustworthy state agendas or institutions.
> 
> So if you bear in mind this fact and you add to this popular discontent, what can we expect? Certainly not social harmony and political stability.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: A lot was made of Putin’s speech announcing the mobilization, where he made a nuclear threat then made a point of saying this was not a bluff. Poland, being – bordering Ukraine, how concerned are you by the nuclear threat from Russia and Putin’s comments?
> 
> Min. Rau: You see, we in Poland – or better to say all our friends, neighbors, and allies on the NATO eastern flank take everything that President Putin is saying very seriously. It’s necessary to take him seriously. The question is whether this is an element of a Russian hybrid war, this kind of threat, or is it something more important? And responsible politicians have to be prepared on these two scenarios; that’s for sure.
> 
> But I suppose the issue has a broader character. You see, so far no country out of these five permanent members of the Security Council – all of them are nuclear powers – tried to break this nuclear taboo, which means to say, OK, I’m going to use nuclear weapons. None of these countries indicated anything like that. So the question is, what does it mean if it, God beware, was to happen in Ukraine? Because as I understand it, it’s a threat to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine soil, tactical nuclear weapons.
> 
> So we know that in human history, nuclear weapons was used once, at the end of the war. It was used by a victorious power to shorten the war, because the victory was already determined.
> 
> If President Putin is threatening to use his nuclear – tactical nuclear weapons, we have to realize that this would be completely different situation, because it would be the use of nuclear weapons by the side which is losing rather than winning the war, and not at the very end of the war but, in fact, in the middle of the war or, God beware, at the beginning of the war.
> 
> So it’s a completely new situation. And the question, the fundamental question, is what would this bring for Russia?
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: I think the answer is –
> 
> Min. Rau: The answer is, following the emerging consensus of the NATO member states, a conventional response in Ukraine.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: And, of course, over the last few days Russia has been forcing Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied territory to vote in referenda about Russian annexation. Do you feel that this will change anything in terms of how Ukraine pursues the war or how the West will approach supporting Ukraine?
> 
> Min. Rau: From the Ukrainian perspective, it’s not going to change anything, because they are fighting for the recovery of temporarily occupied territories. They’re just fighting to restore their territorial integrity.
> 
> From the perspective of the international community, it’s not going to change anything, because not many countries are going to recognize these changes, right?
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Yeah.
> 
> Min. Rau: From the perspective of Russia itself, I suppose the calculation behind this move would be that in this way Russia wanted to indicate that it’s ready to defend the conquered territories on which they launched their referenda, in the same way they are ready to defend the other territories within the internationally recognized borders of the Russian Federation, right.
> 
> But we have already witnessed precedence that confirm that it was – that this would be a miscalculation on the Russian side. Take the Crimea, right, which was attacked by the Ukrainians after being – after what, six years of declarations of Crimea as an integral part of the Russian Federation.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: You’re in close contact with your Ukrainian colleagues. You mentioned Foreign Minister Kuleba. What do the Ukrainians need militarily, especially in the wake of the mobilization? Has that led to the need to expedite certain equipment deliveries? Are there certain types of equipment that they are now desperate for? How – has that shifted the landscape? What do they need in terms of Western support going forward?
> 
> Min. Rau: OK. I suppose our Ukrainian friends have made it clear so many times. So I don’t want to go into details, for obvious reasons. But I would just say that certainly numerous modern heavy equipment. This goes without saying. Also they need ammunition. They need support in training their soldiers outside the Ukrainian borders.
> 
> Obviously, they need financial aid and humanitarian help. And they need it as much – I mean, in a size as big as possible, much bigger than so far, much sooner than before. And they always need our moral support, especially in the deep south, where regrettably the Russian misinformation campaign has taken its toll – or, better to say it used to take its toll after the Russian invasion and so on. Because the more we talk about it, the more it’s open to all these atrocities that the Russians are being committed – committing there; the more it becomes clear that this is – that the energy crisis and the food crisis are manmade crisis. It’s not a result of coincidence of economic phenomenon; certainly not. It’s manmade crisis, because Russia is, as I said,
> 
> capable of weaponizing everything that it has at its disposal: food, including Ukraine’s food, their own food; and their own energy sources.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: There have been concerns in Washington that the amount of European equipment flowing to Ukraine has begun to slow. We put out a proposal here at CSIS to push the European Union, which, for the first time in its history, provided $2.5 billion through the European Peace Facility to support countries providing equipment to Ukraine, essentially to help pay them to backfill. But this is running out of money, this fund.
> 
> Would you support additional funding for the European Peace Facility?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, yes, but how should I put it? OK, I would support it because Poland is waiting for – (laughs) – reimbursement, certainly – (laughs) – from European Peace Facility. And this is particularly important for us, because in terms of the heavy equipment that we shipped to Ukraine, our own heavy equipment, I must tell you that we have – we delivered more than France, Germany, and Italy put together. And as you certainly note, we are doing pretty well economically, but we are still far away from being the richest country in Europe.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: When it comes to Ukraine’s future reconstruction, over the summer the EU made a decision to allow Ukraine – to invite Ukraine to become a candidate member of the European Union. How important do you think EU membership will be for Ukraine and Ukraine’s future reconstruction?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, certainly, certainly to be European Union member state, it’s very important for Ukraine psychologically, morally, because this would be an indication that the European community is considered Ukraine a part of it. But as you know, the road to the European Union, the route of accession, so far – just look at the Western Balkan states. It’s a very long and bumpy road. So my impression is of course Poland will do everything that we can in order to support the speedy accession of Ukraine to the European Union, but to be realistic it’s going to last long. I don’t know how long. Hopefully, not as long as it took Poland, about 10 years; not as long as it’s taking the Western Balkan states, sometimes more than 20 years. Hopefully not. But I do hope that, of course, being a member of the EU should help Ukraine to rebuild itself after the war. But I suppose, and I wish it – I wish that the war would end much sooner, much sooner than Ukraine is member state of European Union.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: In past EU enlargements, there is usually – that has usually been preceded by treaty reform, or that European countries get together and reform the rules of the European Union. Poland signed a letter with many other European
> 
> countries rejecting calls from France and Italy to open up a new treaty conversation. I know European president – President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in her state of the union speech recently called for opening up a convention on treaty reform. Do you think that the EU will need a new treaty before enlargement becomes possible?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, I don’t see – quite frankly, I don’t see any connection between these two future events, OK? The only suggestion that I would have as far as European Union is concerned is to obey the treaties that we now have and speed up the European accession as much as we can.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Mmm hmm. I want to ask you about democracy and the rule of law. President Biden has called the war in Ukraine a contest between democracy and autocracy. But the U.S. and EU have also had concerns about rule of law in Poland. Has this been a topic of conversation in your engagement here in Washington?
> 
> Min. Rau: No. No, we concentrate on other issues, especially on the security issues, on the NATO eastern flank. But we don’t shy away from this kind of – from this kind of conversation. Not at all. And we have made our American friends and our European partners very clear that we are ready to discuss such issues at a – at a legal seminars, just to compare the way in which, for example, judges have been appointed in Germany, or Spain, or in Poland.
> 
> Because so far we are talking about certain media facts or interpretations by non-lawyers. Or if by lawyers, with no comparative content of this – of this discourse. So, as you introduced me, I am a lawyer. I am ready to discuss the issue with fellow lawyers or with fellow politicians. But the issue has to boil down to the norms that constitute this system of Polish, German, Dutch, or Spanish law.
> 
> As far as Ukraine is concerned here, Ukraine, there’s no doubt in my mind, is making a considerable progress in terms of rebuilding its state institutions. And quite frankly, what is most important, I must say, it’s a very, very democratic society. It’s a very democratic society. Of course, perhaps there are issues that we can talk about this or that element of business, the business culture, and so on and so on. But Ukraine has proven many times on many occasions that as a society that value human rights and democracy, not less, than any other country of the free world.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Just on Ukraine’s reconstruction again, I mean, I am quite optimistic about Ukraine’s potential, particularly, if the war concludes, if it’s on a path toward European membership that would have sort of the virtuous cycle of investment and growth.
> 
> Poland has been particularly involved in helping to build and rebuild Ukraine as it’s still fighting. What experiences have you taken from Ukraine’s efforts to both rebuild its society while fighting a war?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, my impression is that the war will take its toll on the reform process, on the understanding of democracy in Ukraine, on its social structure, which I believe will become more egalitarian because the war experience brings people together and it makes clear for them how important a well-functioning state is.
> 
> So from our Polish perspective, I can tell you that the Ukrainians are very much interested in our self-government structure that we established in 1990 where the first free election in Poland was the election to the local government legislators. So and I must say it’s working pretty well, and our neighbors took some elements of our constitutional structure and implemented it into various systems.
> 
> One thing, I suppose, has to be added here, there were some voices before the world that so many, they claimed, elements of the Ukrainian state did not work or did not work properly. There were even such exaggerated judgments and opinions claiming that to some extent it’s a fallen state. No. Look at Ukraine today. Under enormous pressure, the state is working exceptionally, exceptionally well.
> 
> Of course, it’s a matter also of the unity and solidarity of Ukrainian society. That’s true. But the state agendas are working exceptionally well under the pressure of this aggression.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Couldn’t agree more.
> 
> We’ll have time for a couple questions. I want to ask one last question.
> 
> Your relationship with Hungary – you’ve long had a very good relationship with Hungary, with Viktor Orbán, his government. But given Hungary’s reluctance to support sanctions, its potential opposition to many Russian sanctions, its unwillingness to provide lethal assistance to Ukraine, what is the current state of your relationship now with Budapest?
> 
> Min. Rau: Well, first of all, historically, our relations have been close. Our societies are close to each other. But also, historically, we found ourselves on two sides of various political constellations, including the military ones.
> 
> Now, we – Hungary is our partner not only in the European Union but also in the Visegrád Group and so on. But these days, on this very fundamental issue, which is the Russian aggression against Ukraine, we do not agree. So, in this forum – it’s like the European Union or Visegrád Group or B-9 and so on – we cooperate on the issues which bring us together. And we are certainly not going to be persuaded by the Hungarians that we should change our position towards Russia, Belarus, or Ukraine itself.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Thank you.
> 
> So we can take a few questions from the audience. There are two rules. One, please identify yourself and raise your hand. And the second is ask a question, please; let’s avoid comments.
> 
> Yes, please.
> 
> Eva Hockstram Fossel:
> 
> Do I need the microphone?
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Yes. The microphone is coming. I think I caught – I caught our audiovisual team off-guard, but –
> 
> Ms. Fossel: Hello. Thank you for an interesting speech/discussion. I’m Eva Hockstram Fossel (ph) from the Swedish Defense Research Agency, visiting Washington, D.C., and I have a question.
> 
> How will Poland sort of capitalize on the goodwill it has received during the handling of Russia’s war on Ukraine? Is it interested in strengthening its role within the EU and NATO? And what issues would you like to drive in those organizations?
> 
> Min. Rau: And what issues –
> 
> Ms. Fossel: – would you like to promote within the EU and NATO?
> 
> Min. Rau: OK. Thank you. Should I –
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Go ahead.
> 
> Min. Rau: – answer right now?
> 
> Well, if we have managed to uncover some goodwill, we would like to use it to persuade our friends, allies, and partners to help Ukraine even more. This is the first thing, because the Ukrainians are fighting for our common values and they are also fighting in our interests – and not only the Polish interests, but in the interests of the transatlantic community – because imperialism – Russian imperialism, supported by the ideology of Russkiy Mir, would not stop in Ukraine. That’s obvious.
> 
> As far as our position in the European Union is concerned, well, I would say I believe that what is very important in the European Union in Poland – and for Poland is to stick to the letter and spirit of treatises, not to build a federal state without the consent of its citizens. Believe me, Europe is not like the United States. Spain is not Arizona and Poland is not Nebraska. (Laughter.) We have much less in common than these two magnificent states. We have different culture, different language, different historical experience, difference of practices, and also different level of – different standards of living, and so on and so on. But European Union is our natural habitat – pluralistic and it’s our natural family – because we are Europeans. This means that right now this is the European Union and we have – and this is the institution that is common to all of us. It brings us together. And this is the natural expression of a pluralistic European identity – pluralistic European identity.
> 
> As far as NATO is concerned, we would like to use this – our position to persuade everyone around – our allies in the North Atlantic Treaty – that this is a historic time for the Free World. We have a unique chance to contain – and I would say right now push back Russian imperialism. But in order to do it, verbal unity, unity in our declarations is not enough.
> 
> What is really absolutely necessary is to take responsibility by each and every NATO member states for its own defense, which means to spend at least – at least 2 percent of GDP for defense. Poland is going to spend 3.2 percent next year from the budget. But if you include extra budget remains, it’s going to raise up to 4.2 percent.
> 
> We are in a special situation because we are in the middle of the eastern flank, but nevertheless, solidarity and above all NATO member states’ responsibility requires to join forces, but above all to take this threat – believe me, existential threat – not even only for the transatlantic community, but for the Free World as a whole to take this threat seriously and to do everything possible to defend ourselves.
> 
> How shall I put it? Defense is very, very important in this respect. So, deterrence is not less important. If strong deterrence was there, Putin would not attack Ukraine. Correct? And deterrence right now is the best investment. Deterrence of NATO as a whole – the best investment in peace and prosperity for the future generations in the Free World.
> 
> Ladies and gentlemen, thank you.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: I’ll take one more question, and then, we’ll be off the hook.
> 
> Yes, please.
> 
> Fay Dwan: Hi, Mr. Minister. My name is Fay Dwan. I’m a student at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies just down the street.
> 
> I have a question. You mentioned in your speech that solidary of NATO nations, or European Union, is extremely important in this moment. But four or five weeks ago, I think, I’d read some news that Poland was demanding a war reparation of 1.3 trillion euros from German government. Why would the Polish government do something at this time to, you know, at least superficially speaking, might undermine the solidarity –
> 
> Min. Rau: Superficially speaking?
> 
> Mr. Dwan: Yeah, yeah, like on the surface, right? Like, it looks like something would have undermined the solidarity within Europe by asking German that 1.3 trillion euros.
> 
> Min. Rau: OK. The answer to that is very simple. We didn’t have any treaty with Germany after World War II. So, there are so many issues that have not been regulated since the war. The problem is – the true problem is that under the German occupation we lost more than 5 million citizens. So many people lost their lives, not to mention their estate, their chances to educate. More than a million got diseases that affected the rest of their life, and so on. And I must tell you that no – there are not many people with us who were directly affected by the war, because such people now are in their 90s. So in my country, there are not many of them. But nevertheless, the trauma of the war is still very, very much present in every Polish family.
> 
> And there is enormous sense injustice that the – statistically – the majority – considerable majority, more than 65 percent of the people, including the young people like yourself, feel that this is a business that has not been taken seriously, despite the fact that we have good relations with our German neighbors. We are allies in NATO, and partners in the European Union. Our trade relations are very close and intense. But nevertheless, after 30 years of regaining – after fall of the Berlin Wall, after Poland regained independence and sovereignty, after the reunification of Germany, there’s no clear sign, at least on the German part, that this issue should be brought to a satisfactory end.
> 
> And you realize that usually the war is being ended with a peace treaty that regulates all spheres of mutual interest. And that’s what we – what we want to do, because this is the social expectations of the considerable majority of our population. So I don’t think that this would undermine our solidarity with any European state, including Germany, in order to improve our
> 
> bilateral relations. We think very seriously. We are determined to pursue this issue.
> 
> Mr. Bergmann: Well, Minister Rau, thank you so much for being here. Thank you, on behalf of CSIS. It’s been a real privilege and honor. I know you’ve had an incredibly busy not just day but week here in the United States. So please join me in thanking the foreign minister. (Applause.)


----------



## Sean K

Belli said:


> None of us know whether if it was deliberate or not or even if it was Russia the assumption being it was given the number of missiles launched at the time.  So it's all speculation at this stage.
> 
> I have read elsewhere, Russia was been informed ages ago what the consequences would be for any deliberate act against NATO.  It doesn't involve nuclear weapons.  NATO has sufficient conventional weapons available to result in the Black Sea Fleet being sunk within 48 hours and all Russian assets outside of Russia itself being fair game.




The US have had two carrier strike groups bobbing around in Europe for some time now. Black Sea Fleet might not last 6 hours.


----------



## joeno

Belli said:


> I have read elsewhere, Russia was been informed ages ago what the consequences would be for any deliberate act against NATO.  It doesn't involve nuclear weapons.  NATO has sufficient conventional weapons available to result in the Black Sea Fleet being sunk within 48 hours and all Russian assets outside of Russia itself being fair game.




And people think Russia will idle their nukes by while their entire fleet is demolished by NATO by conventional weapons? 

The only way that could happen is if the US hands over control of their carrier strike groups to Ukraine. And they won't do that.

Also enough of the predictable bloviations now that Russia's reportly accidentally (or not) flew a missile into Poland. We should aim to achieve peace. Not perpetual war which I am sure is the ultimate aim of the American military industrial complex & propaganda industry.

Even if you think this is part of Russia's imperialistic ambitions, no one can deny who "else" this benefits...


----------



## joeno

Sean K said:


> The US have had two carrier strike groups bobbing around in Europe for some time now. Black Sea Fleet might not last 6 hours.



The anti-nuke anti-air tech in the US is good, world leading. But unfortunatelly not good enough to prevent destruction from Russia launching her entire ICBM arsenal at them + dummy missiles. Which 100% will happen if the US Navy decides to destroy their black sea fleet.


----------



## bluekelah

Sean K said:


> If it was deliberate I can't see what the purpose is. It should just firm up NATOs support for Ukraine and weaken Russia's position. Even if it's an accident, it's good for Ukraine. Agree GG it could lead to Putin waving his nukes around again, but if he does actually use a tactical nuke I think he'll lose all legitimacy and probably China.



I believe I mentioned a few times before, aegis launch sites in Poland and Romania which are both tomahawk/nuke capable at a moments notice. Russia wants them gone.

Or could be just Russian incompetence lol..

Alternatively could be self inflicted bombs made to look like Russians so nato could join in the war

Who knows Wtf is happening there, time will tell...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Lotsa fog atm.

gg


----------



## joeno

bluekelah said:


> I believe I mentioned a few times before, aegis launch sites in Poland and Romania which are both tomahawk/nuke capable at a moments notice. Russia wants them gone.
> 
> Or could be just Russian incompetence lol..
> 
> Alternatively could be self inflicted bombs made to look like Russians so nato could join in the war
> 
> Who knows Wtf is happening there, time will tell...



Biden already confirmed it is unlikely from Russia. Could be some Ukrainian commander's brilliant tactic to try to draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Fly a made-in-Russia rocket a few blocks down the road into Poland


----------



## qldfrog

Well it seems more and more probable the polish hit was launched by Ukraine.
what a mess up.
I somehow suspect the US here was  not  even involved, 
the green tshirt model/actor maybe afraid of loosing support after the crypto exchange collapse?
I hope Poland was warned and no real Polish person died for that.


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> Well it seems more and more probable the polish hit was launched by Ukraine.
> what a mess up.
> I somehow suspect the US here was  not  even involved,
> the green tshirt model/actor maybe afraid of loosing support after the crypto exchange collapse?
> I hope Poland was warned and no real Polish person died for that.




Yeah, last I read was that it was a Ukraine air defence missile trying to take down a Russian missile. I'm not sure why Russia are sending missiles into the west of Ukraine when the battle is in the east. Maybe part of their most recent strategy to take out the power and water systems to cripple them. Well, who knows.


----------



## bluekelah

joeno said:


> Biden already confirmed it is unlikely from Russia. Could be some Ukrainian commander's brilliant tactic to try to draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Fly a made-in-Russia rocket a few blocks down the road into Poland



Yep I suspected the Ukrainians did some self sabotage. Dont make sense as Russians are now consolidating in eastern ukrainian regions, not pushing forward at all. Ukrainians were positioning artillery before next to schools/hospitals before, so that they could claim russian were purposefully aiming at civilian buildings.

Well what a mess lol...


----------



## mullokintyre

One has to question false flag motives here.
Almost immediately after the missile attack was announced, Zelensky went on TV and announced 
that Russia had attacked a NATO ally, and that NATO needed a severe response.

Compliant media went along with it but are now backtracking (see AAP via Washington Post ).
It may of course been a complete coincidence that at the time Biden was pushing Congress to add another 37.5 Billon to the Ukraine war effort.
As  Glen Greenwald has pointed out, the amont of money spent in Ukraine is now of gigantic proportions.


Mick


----------



## joeno

mullokintyre said:


> One has to question false flag motives here.
> Almost immediately after the missile attack was announced, Zelensky went on TV and announced
> that Russia had attacked a NATO ally, and that NATO needed a severe response.
> 
> Compliant media went along with it but are now backtracking (see AAP via Washington Post ).
> It may of course been a complete coincidence that at the time Biden was pushing Congress to add another 37.5 Billon to the Ukraine war effort.
> As  Glen Greenwald has pointed out, the amont of money spent in Ukraine is now of gigantic proportions.
> 
> 
> Mick




Zelensky has "Elon Musk" syndrome. Drowning in his own self-perceived brilliance and thinking himself a messiah like figure in history. But in the end a scumbag who forced young unwilling men to fight in the front lines.


----------



## bluekelah

mullokintyre said:


> One has to question false flag motives here.
> Almost immediately after the missile attack was announced, Zelensky went on TV and announced
> that Russia had attacked a NATO ally, and that NATO needed a severe response.
> 
> Compliant media went along with it but are now backtracking (see AAP via Washington Post ).
> It may of course been a complete coincidence that at the time Biden was pushing Congress to add another 37.5 Billon to the Ukraine war effort.
> As  Glen Greenwald has pointed out, the amont of money spent in Ukraine is now of gigantic proportions.
> 
> 
> Mick




They must have routed billions to ukraine as war funds which then get rerouted back to offshore accounts under rich politicians. There was this scandal  thing about bidens son was doing some business in ukraine or something..also Look at the Ukrainian involvement with the recent FTX debacle. It just gets more interesting day by day


----------



## qldfrog

bluekelah said:


> They must have routed billions to ukraine as war funds which then get rerouted back to offshore accounts under rich politicians. There was this scandal  thing about bidens son was doing some business in ukraine or something..also Look at the Ukrainian involvement with the recent FTX debacle. It just gets more interesting day by day



Stop it you Putin troll 😂
This is a battle of good vs evil. The Russians launched an un.provoked attack against a peaceful regime acting for the betterment of the Ukrainian people,  all of them 
The US democrats , the west and the whole Biden family are helping this bastion of democracy... and crypto management.
You should watch the ABC,or read that thread more often:
do not listen to these Conspi-racists....


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Lotsa fog atm.
> 
> gg



yep, getting thicker.


----------



## JohnDe

It is easy to forget the lessons of history.

Easy to not see the parrels of the past.

Convenient to ignore the evidence.

Putin with Russia and one of the largest armies in Europe and a nuclear arsenal to back it up, marched into the Ukraine.

Zelenskyy a first term president, guiding Ukraine's hope to enter the EU by fully democratising his country and clearing corruption, is thrown into the role of a war president, by Russia's invasion.

Both countries have proven issues with corruption, freedom and democracy. Neither are angels, but then which country is?

One has attempted proven reforms, uses a political system similar to our western system.

The other controls information and uses propaganda, lies to its people.

What other country and its leader tried to substantiate the invasion of its neighbours?


----------



## Sean K

This could push Putin further into a corner.


----------



## sptrawler

U.S unveils new unmanned stealth bomber.









						Pentagon debuts its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider
					

America's newest nuclear stealth bomber made its debut Friday after years of secret development and as part of the Pentagon's answer to rising concerns over a future conflict with China.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Smurf1976

Sean K said:


> This could push Putin further into a corner



My guess is that whatever happens here, it won't involve Russia selling oil on the open market at US $60.

Either the oil goes to some country that isn't part of the arrangement or the oil isn't physically supplied at all is my expectation.

Either way Russian oil is gone from Western markets.


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> U.S unveils new unmanned stealth bomber.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pentagon debuts its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider
> 
> 
> America's newest nuclear stealth bomber made its debut Friday after years of secret development and as part of the Pentagon's answer to rising concerns over a future conflict with China.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com




I don't think it's unmanned, maybe it will be able to do both in the future. It may be mentioned in in our DSR released in March that we should consider buying a few in X years.









						Marles hints RAAF could buy B-21 Raider bomber
					

It comes days after US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall surprisingly hinted his country would be willing to sell its most prized in-development aircraft to Australia.




					australianaviation.com.au


----------



## Sean K

Smurf1976 said:


> My guess is that whatever happens here, it won't involve Russia selling oil on the open market at US $60.
> 
> Either the oil goes to some country that isn't part of the arrangement or the oil isn't physically supplied at all is my expectation.
> 
> Either way Russian oil is gone from Western markets.




Europe can't do without it can they? Where's the alternate supply come from? Can the Gulf States ramp up enough to replace it?


----------



## Sean K

Smurf1976 said:


> My guess is that whatever happens here, it won't involve Russia selling oil on the open market at US $60.
> 
> Either the oil goes to some country that isn't part of the arrangement or the oil isn't physically supplied at all is my expectation.
> 
> Either way Russian oil is gone from Western markets.




Must remember some of the reasons why Japan invaded Manchuria and China and then attacked Pearl Harbour.


----------



## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> Must remember some of the reasons why Japan invaded Manchuria and China and then attacked Pearl Harbour.
> 
> View attachment 150078



We tend to forget that but a visit to the Tokyo war museum quickly puts back that side of history as it is nowadays taight to Japanese as the reason wwIi started for them.
We were strangled and had to..
A bit different here IMHO:
Europe is strangling itself, and russia will find plenty of buyers for its oil.
BTW, is ukraine still one of the few European country still using russian gas.
Was not so long ago, while germany was already cut and was wondering if this is still going on.
I would think russia would have cut them when they started power plant strikes


----------



## sptrawler

Sean K said:


> I don't think it's unmanned, maybe it will be able to do both in the future. It may be mentioned in in our DSR released in March that we should consider buying a few in X years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Marles hints RAAF could buy B-21 Raider bomber
> 
> 
> It comes days after US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall surprisingly hinted his country would be willing to sell its most prized in-development aircraft to Australia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> australianaviation.com.au



Hi Sean, they are saying it can fly with or without crew. I guess if it is unmanned destroying it, rather than allowing it to be captured is an option. I wonder if it has supersonic ability.









						US Air Force unveils first new bomber in more than three decades
					

Almost every aspect of the B-21 Raider program is classified, as the Pentagon gives the public its first look at the stealth aircraft.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
Key points:​
The US Air Force plans to build 100 B-21 Raiders, able to deploy nuclear weapons or conventional bombs with or without humans on board
The total cost of the bombers remains unknown
The Raider was unveiled beneath a hangar to prevent satellite imaging and overhead cameras seeing it
While the Raider may resemble the B-2, once inside, the similarities stopped, said Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman Corp, which will build the bombers.
"The way it operates internally is extremely advanced compared to the B-2, because the technology has evolved so much in terms of the computing capability that we can now embed in the software of the B-21," Ms Warden said.

Other changes include advanced materials used in coatings to make the bomber harder to detect, Mr Austin said.

"Fifty years of advances in low-observable technology have gone into this aircraft," Mr Austin said.

"Even the most sophisticated air defence systems will struggle to detect a B-21 in the sky."
Other advances likely include new ways to control electronic emissions, so the bomber could spoof adversary radars and disguise itself as another object, and use of new propulsion technologies, several defence analysts said.

"It is incredibly low observability," Ms Warden said. "You'll hear it, but you really won't see it."


----------



## Smurf1976

Sean K said:


> Europe can't do without it can they? Where's the alternate supply come from? Can the Gulf States ramp up enough to replace it?




Details aside I’m thinking that Russia and friends are going to fill their oil storage to the brim and choke off supply to the West.

That’s speculation on my part but I’m expecting some strategy of that nature. A physical oil supply crisis for the West meanwhile Russia and others willing to go along with it build a physical oil stockpile for either their own use or future sale at high prices.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see things like, for example, Saudi importing Russian oil simply to store it.


----------



## Sean K

Smurf1976 said:


> Details aside I’m thinking that Russia and friends are going to fill their oil storage to the brim and choke off supply to the West.
> 
> That’s speculation on my part but I’m expecting some strategy of that nature. A physical oil supply crisis for the West meanwhile Russia and others willing to go along with it build a physical oil stockpile for either their own use or future sale at high prices.
> 
> I wouldn’t be surprised if we see things like, for example, Saudi importing Russian oil simply to store it.




Sounds like a likely strategic plan. 

Are you suggesting Saudis import and store for potential Western use, or just to purchase of Russia to fund them? I wonder where India and China sit in this.


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> Hi Sean, they are saying it can fly with or without crew. I guess if it is unmanned destroying it, rather than allowing it to be captured is an option. I wonder if it has supersonic ability.




Yeah, just not sure if the first batch will be all unmanned. The beauty about the current UAVs is that they're cheaper and if shot down you don't lose the crew. However, these things are going to cost billions each so losing a pilot who can take control if the remote control fails might not be as big a loss. Probably close to the same speed as the B2 which is around Mach 1. I think we're derailing the war thread. 😟


----------



## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> We tend to forget that but a visit to the Tokyo war museum quickly puts back that side of history as it is nowadays taight to Japanese as the reason wwIi started for them.
> We were strangled and had to..
> A bit different here IMHO:
> Europe is strangling itself, and russia will find plenty of buyers for its oil.
> BTW, is ukraine still one of the few European country still using russian gas.
> Was not so long ago, while germany was already cut and was wondering if this is still going on.
> I would think russia would have cut them when they started power plant strikes




Yes, different, but similar sort of issue. For whatever reason this war started, it has the potential to significantly escalate due to energy.


----------



## Smurf1976

Sean K said:


> Are you suggesting Saudis import and store for potential Western use, or just to purchase of Russia to fund them?



Either.

I’m basically thinking that oil is an intrinsically valuable commodity and that for any country with a government able to think long term, having a physical stockpile is definitely not a problem.

The ultimate goal would be to straddle both sides. Buy Russian oil without the West knowing. Now you’ve got Russia on side, you’ve got a physical oil stockpile and you haven’t upset the West.

Then Saudi etc could come forth and say that, given the oil shortage, we’re going to boost production for a while. We’ve got this new oil field see, and technically well its oil is remarkably similar to Russian oil...... 

That oil would of course be sold at full market price.

Another would be the importing countries. Given China’s daily imports are huge, ending up with a stockpile definitely wouldn’t be a problem. Keep buying the Saudi etc oil to make sure nobody else does, buy Russian oil as well and build up inventory. It’ll be useful someday for sure and in the meantime it’s not a problem to have it.

Regardless of details I’m thinking that Russian oil effectively disappears so far as the West is concerned, it won’t actually be sold at $60


----------



## qldfrog

A small lesson in history written in 2014 in the guardian... Basilio bible so can not blame fox news and must be true








						In Ukraine, the US is dragging us towards war with Russia | John Pilger
					

John Pilger: Washington's role in Ukraine, and its backing for the regime's neo-Nazis, has huge implications for the rest of the world




					www.theguardian.com
				



They succeeded


----------



## greggles

Putin crossed the Rubicon the moment Russian troops entered Ukraine with the intention of deposing the Zelensky regime. The die is cast, there is no going back. There is something unsettling to me about the way Russia is fighting this war. It seems like an all of nothing approach to prosecuting a war. The mobilised are being used as cannon fodder in such a shameless way it reeks of total desperation.

If this war was being waged by a Western nation it would be over now, and the leader of the country out of power. But Russia is more like a mafia family than a government as we understand them. Everyone is corrupt and every person who rises to the upper echelons is a ruthless killer. No exceptions. Putin aims to obliterate the Ukrainian nation and destroy their culture and national identity. Be assured that Russia will only bring repression, death and slavery to Ukraine and if it is permitted to succeed, Moldova will be next.

Whatever mistakes the West might have made prior to the war commencing, Russia cannot be allowed to succeed. Russia's defeat will mean the end of the Putin regime. It will also make Russia a toothless tiger for many years to come. They have destroyed almost an entire generation of young men. There will be 100,000 Russian soldiers dead by 2023 and probably close to that again wounded. Appeasement won't work, negotiations won't work, only the total defeat of Russia on the battlefield will work and Western Europe (I'm looking at you Germany!) needs to stop their cowardly hand wringing and start providing real military support.


----------



## JohnDe

> Russian oligarch ‘seizes 400,000 acres of Ukrainian farmland’
> 
> Soon after Russian tanks rolled into eastern Ukraine, three of that country’s biggest farming operators lost tracts of land equivalent to more than twice the area of New York City.
> 
> It wasn’t taken by the military. In all three cases, leaders of the Ukrainian farming operations say, the land ended up in the hands of the family company of a former Russian agriculture minister, Alexander Tkachev.
> 
> The Ukrainian firms say that his company, Agrocomplex, seized the rights to some 400,000 acres, becoming one of largest farm operators in Ukraine. Ukraine’s military and civilian intelligence agencies and its public prosecutors’ office are investigating the alleged expropriation, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former Russian agriculture minister Alexander Tkachev attends a meeting with farmers in a corn field in Semikarakorsk, Russia, in 2015.
> 
> In the area of eastern Ukraine that Russia’s military occupies, Russia has moved to consolidate control, pushing its currency and school curriculum onto the local populace. At the same time, politically connected Russian oligarchs and companies have quietly moved into the newly occupied territories to make money.
> 
> “Russia is taking over the economy in occupied territories and using that control to help control the whole area,” said Dmitry Skorniakov, chief executive of Ukrainian agricultural company HarvEast Holding.
> 
> HarvEast land became the focus of a feud in May between armed groups, including one from the Russia-backed local administration and one from Agrocomplex, Mr. Skorniakov said farm workers told him. They described shots being fired in the air.
> 
> In the end, the workers told Mr. Skorniakov, HarvEast’s land was split into three tranches, with 100,000 owned or rented acres in Donetsk province handed over to Agrocomplex.
> 
> Another Ukraine farming company, Nibulon Ltd., has lost 50,000 acres to land seizures, according to its chief executive, Andriy Vadaturskyy. He said he believes that Agrocomplex now farms this land.
> 
> A third Ukrainian company, Agroton Public Ltd., accused Agrocomplex of taking 250,000 acres.
> 
> Agrocomplex didn’t return repeated emails and calls seeking comment. Mr. Tkachev couldn’t be reached.
> 
> Land seizures threaten to put a large portion of one of the world’s biggest grain harvests under Russian control. The moves stand to increase Moscow’s global economic leverage, particularly in developing nations that have long relied on Ukrainian and Russian grain production for food.
> 
> Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a telephone press conference in October that assets in regions where Russia has taken control could be transferred to Russian jurisdiction. The Kremlin press service said in an emailed response to questions that eastern Ukrainian regions now are part of Russia. Farm owners can claim their rights according to the laws of Russia, it said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A fragment of a rocket from a multiple rocket launcher is embedded in the ground on a wheat field in Ukraine.
> 
> The taking of farmland — as described by Ukrainian intelligence, executives at agriculture companies and workers who said they witnessed it — began soon after Moscow established local civil administrations in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine and has unfolded in a consistent, systematic way.
> 
> First to lose their land were owners who served in Ukraine’s military or civil service and owners who lived outside of the region.
> 
> The initial step was a visit from officials connected to the Donetsk People’s Republic or the Luhansk People’s Republic — proxy statelets established when a Russia-backed separatist movement took control of some areas of Ukraine in 2014. Starting around March, invading Russian forces expanded those proxy statelets, which Moscow has since declared to be part of Russia.
> 
> Donetsk and Luhansk officials, sometimes in groups carrying guns, would visit local farms with a message: They were in charge now.
> 
> In some cases, farmers were threatened if they didn’t continue working. Representatives of the occupation government coerced Ukrainian landowners, sometimes at gunpoint, to rewrite contracts, including ownership deeds, to conform with Russian, not Ukrainian, law, said those familiar with the process.
> 
> In certain instances, landowners were allowed to keep their farms, but new contracts stipulated that 70% of the harvest would go to Russia or to Donetsk People’s Republic or Luhansk People’s Republic authorities.
> 
> On other farms, land was re-registered, sometimes bundled with other operations nearby.
> 
> The Ukrainian companies and farmers that had land and farm equipment taken haven’t been compensated, they say.
> 
> A representative for the Donetsk People’s Republic couldn’t be reached for comment. An official of the Luhansk People’s Republic said by email that there had been no land expropriation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian servicemen stand guard in a field as farmers harvest wheat near Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region.
> 
> A big chunk of the land at issue now is being farmed by Agrocomplex, according to Ukrainian intelligence and Ukrainian farm owners. The company has been involved in ensuring Russia’s “control over agricultural production,” Ukrainian military intelligence said in a document reviewed by the Journal.
> 
> Agrocomplex’s corporate documents list Mr. Tkachev as a director and chairman of the annual shareholders’ meeting. He is described as chairman of the board and the company’s beneficial owner in accounts filed with SPARK-Interfax, a Russian corporate data company.
> 
> A member of Russia’s business and political elite, Mr. Tkachev has frequently been photographed with Russian President Vladimir Putin, particularly when Russia prepared to host the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, in a region Mr. Tkachev then governed.
> 
> After serving as governor of Russia’s Krasnodar province, Mr. Tkachev was Russia’s minister of agriculture from 2015 to 2018. In Moscow, his wealth was notable even among the political elite, said Alexandra Pokopenko, a former adviser to the Bank of Russia.
> 
> Through Agrocomplex, Mr. Tkachev owns a large, turreted holiday villa and outbuildings on the Black Sea coast, according to local activists who protested its construction inside a conservation area. It is in a region that houses the dachas of several leading members of the Russian establishment. In Georgia, according to the local press there, Mr. Tkachev owns the one-time holiday home of Lavrentiy Beria, who ran Stalin’s secret police.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> While he was in government and head of Agrocomplex, Mr. Tkachev’s family company became a field-to-shelf food giant producing and processing grain, livestock and dairy products for sale in Russia and parts of Europe where it is sanctioned
> 
> Mr. Tkachev’s wife founded a large vineyard in Krasnodar province, complete with a giant mock French chateau, according to SPARK-Interfax. In a video on the vineyard’s website, Mr. Tkachev is seen toasting guests who include Moscow celebrities at an event in which female dancers rub grapes over themselves.
> 
> The European Union, U.K. and Australia sanctioned Mr. Tkachev in 2014 for what they said was his support of the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region. The U.S. hasn’t sanctioned him.
> 
> While he was in government and head of Agrocomplex, Mr. Tkachev’s family company became a field-to-shelf food giant producing and processing grain, livestock and dairy products for sale in Russia and parts of Europe where it is sanctioned. It tripled its land holdings over the period. Agrocomplex now controls more than two million acres of farmland in Russia, said BEFL, a Russian corporate advisory. That is in addition to the land it is alleged to have stolen in Ukraine.
> 
> Its holdings in Russia, equal to almost twice the size of the U.S. state of Delaware, make Agrocomplex that country’s third-largest farmland owner. It reported revenue equivalent to about $1.16 billion last year. Its full name is “JSC Agrocomplex Named After N.I. Tkachev,” a reference to its founder, Alexander Tkachev’s father.
> 
> Agrocomplex has followed in the wake of Russian soldiers before. After Russia annexed Crimea, an Agrocomplex affiliate bought a Crimean agricultural enterprise once owned by a Ukrainian business rival. Mr. Putin has praised Agrocomplex’s work in Crimea, singling out one of its investments at a forum in St. Petersburg last year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> An operator remotely controls a corn loader on a ship.
> 
> Ukrainian businessman Yuriy Zhuravlev, chief executive and majority shareholder of the publicly held farming company Agroton, said that in May, he took a call from a man who identified himself as the agriculture minister of the Luhansk People’s Republic. It had laid claim to civil administration in Luhansk, and the caller told Mr. Zhuravlev that Agroton wasn’t registered there.
> 
> Mr. Zhuravlev said the caller told him that 250,000 acres Agroton owned or rented in Luhansk now belonged to Agrocomplex. About 350,000 metric tons of wheat and sunflower seeds, including both stored and crops in the ground, were also taken, Mr. Zhuravlev said.
> 
> “They wanted to rob the enterprise,” he said.
> 
> A few days later came more bad news. Mr. Zhuravlev said he obtained a document showing that a man named Alexei Melnikov had registered himself and a new company, Luhansk Agro-Industrial Company LLC, as operator of the farmland.
> 
> Mr. Melnikov was an official in Russia’s Krasnodar province when Mr. Tkachev governed it, according to press reports at the time. On May 17, Mr. Melnikov registered himself and the new company as a taxpayer in Luhansk, a tax registration document shows.
> 
> Two days later, Mr. Melnikov sat down for a meeting with the general director of Agrocomplex and the Luhansk People’s Republic’s agriculture minister, according to Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service, known as the SBU. The agency described the meeting in a Nov. 3 letter to Mr. Melnikov informing him he was under investigation for alleged war crimes and participation in organised crime.
> 
> A few days after the meeting, a Luhansk People’s Republic official asked Russia’s deputy prime minister for a permit for Agrocomplex to work in Luhansk, the SBU said. Mr. Melnikov couldn’t be reached for comment. He said in a TV interview in July that he was buying wheat from local farmland that had been abandoned.
> 
> Back at Agroton, four officials paid a visit as part of a group with guns that threatened to kill managers who refused to work with them, Mr. Zhuravlev said he was told by farm workers.
> 
> He said the party included Valery Pakhnyts, a Luhansk People’s Republic official. The U.S. government sanctioned Mr. Pakhnyts in September, alleging that he oversaw the theft of Ukrainian grain. Mr. Pakhnyts said by email there was no land expropriation. He said that operating on farmland is secured by registration with the state, which any legal entity can do. He said Russian companies weren’t involved.
> 
> “The information that some groups moved around and inspected farmlands does not correspond to reality,” Mr. Pakhnyts said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Medusa S general cargo ship is loaded with grain, destined for Turkey, at the UkrTransAgro LLC grain terminal at the Port of Mariupol in Mariupol, Ukraine.
> 
> According to Mr. Zhuravlev, the farm visitors also included a Crimean official named Pavlo Kharlamov. Mr. Kharlamov said in an interview that he had an indirect role in uniting agricultural assets on behalf of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
> 
> Differing with Mr. Pakhnyts, he said that Russian companies were involved in the process. He said that farmland wasn’t being expropriated because it already belonged to the people of Luhansk. He denied that weapons were involved.
> 
> In July, a fleet of combine harvesters bearing the Agrocomplex logo showed up on Agroton’s land and began harvesting the wheat crop Agroton had planted, farmworkers told Mr. Zhuravlev.
> 
> The following month, employees of Agroton and Nibulon, along with landowners from whom the Ukrainian firms rented land, were invited to a presentation in the city of Bilovodsk in Luhansk. In a hall called the House of Culture, an executive who said she worked with Agrocomplex made the case for co-operating with the Russian company, according to a recording of the meeting.
> 
> Agroton and Nibulon had “abandoned their enterprises and their people,“ the executive told the group. She said Agrocomplex had paid 4 billion rubles, equivalent to about $65 million, for the businesses’ assets, including buildings and the harvest. “Nothing was given for free,” she said.
> 
> Agroton and Nibulon say they didn’t receive compensation. On Aug. 8, Agroton issued a statement saying that Agrocomplex has “seized all assets” in the Luhansk region.
> 
> _Kate Vtorygina and Sergii Bosak contributed to this article.
> 
> The Wall Street Journal_


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## JohnDe

joeno said:


> Zelensky has "Elon Musk" syndrome. Drowning in his own self-perceived brilliance and thinking himself a messiah like figure in history. But in the end a scumbag who forced young unwilling men to fight in the front lines.




You're not going to like this - 









						Volodymyr Zelensky Is TIME's 2022 Person of the Year
					

Volodymyr Zelensky’s success as a wartime leader has relied on the fact that courage is contagious




					time.com
				




*Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named Time magazine's Person of the Year*


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## mullokintyre

JohnDe said:


> You're not going to like this -
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Volodymyr Zelensky Is TIME's 2022 Person of the Year
> 
> 
> Volodymyr Zelensky’s success as a wartime leader has relied on the fact that courage is contagious
> 
> 
> 
> 
> time.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy named Time magazine's Person of the Year*



Its always interesting to look at the final nominations for Times POY.
from Time
Xi jinping (yeah its for real, go read the article)
The US Supreme Court
Elon Musk
Liz Cheney
Mackenzie Scott (Bezos ex wife)
and of Course Zelensky

Could see some reason for Musks nomination, and most certainly for Mackenzie Scott given her Philanthropic donations.
But Cheney?  The commie dictator?  The  Supreme Court?
Some notable ones that missed out include the Murdered Iranian woman that sparked protests in Iran , Masa Amini , or Xiamaro Castro, the first woman president of  Honduras, or maybe Pelosi,  or maybe even Georgia Meloni who became the first elected female prime minister of Italy.
Mick


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## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Its always interesting to look at the final nominations for Times POY.
> from Time
> Xi jinping (yeah its for real, go read the article)
> The US Supreme Court
> Elon Musk
> Liz Cheney
> Mackenzie Scott (Bezos ex wife)
> and of Course Zelensky
> 
> Could see some reason for Musks nomination, and most certainly for Mackenzie Scott given her Philanthropic donations.
> But Cheney?  The commie dictator?  The  Supreme Court?
> Some notable ones that missed out include the Murdered Iranian woman that sparked protests in Iran , Masa Amini , or Xiamaro Castro, the first woman president of  Honduras, or maybe Pelosi,  or maybe even Georgia Meloni who became the first elected female prime minister of Italy.
> Mick




Wasn't Hitler a POY once?


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## IFocus

Time

"*The award goes to an event or person deemed to have had the most influence on global events over the past 12 months"*

I think Putin would be a clear winner in a Hitler sort of way.


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## IFocus

Sean K said:


> Wasn't Hitler a POY once?





Haha beat me to it Sean.


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## JohnDe

mullokintyre said:


> Its always interesting to look at the final nominations for Times POY.
> from Time
> Xi jinping (yeah its for real, go read the article)
> The US Supreme Court
> Elon Musk
> Liz Cheney
> Mackenzie Scott (Bezos ex wife)
> and of Course Zelensky
> 
> Could see some reason for Musks nomination, and most certainly for Mackenzie Scott given her Philanthropic donations.
> But Cheney?  The commie dictator?  The  Supreme Court?
> Some notable ones that missed out include the Murdered Iranian woman that sparked protests in Iran , Masa Amini , or Xiamaro Castro, the first woman president of  Honduras, or maybe Pelosi,  or maybe even Georgia Meloni who became the first elected female prime minister of Italy.
> Mick




I can understand why Xi Jinping was POY. It wasn't too long ago that China was one of the poorest nations, with a 19th Century industrial system. Chinease leadership improved and during Xi's leadership China continued to reduce poverty, increase personal wealth, modernise industry, and become the second largest economy in the world.


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## mullokintyre

IFocus said:


> Time
> 
> "*The award goes to an event or person deemed to have had the most influence on global events over the past 12 months"*



And it made me wonder why Liz Cheney  or the Supreme Court gets a  nod - neither of them had any influence at a global scale, unless you consider the USA as global.  Oh wait ...
Mick


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## JohnDe

> George Orwell’s 1984 top seller in Russia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> George Orwell’s classic novel of totalitarian terror 1984 was the best-selling fiction title this year in Russia. The novel, published in 1949, takes place in a dystopian future where relentless propaganda ensures support for brutal wars.
> 
> It was the most popular fiction download on the website of the Russian online bookseller LitRes and the second most popular in any category, the state news agency Tass reported.
> 
> The Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin was Orwell’s inspiration for 1984, which portrays a police state controlled by an all-powerful leader called Big Brother whose citizens are monitored for “thought crimes” and forced to believe “war is peace”.
> 
> Since President Vladimir Putin ordered tanks into Ukraine in February, the Kremlin has adopted a series of laws critics have described as Orwellian. In March, Mr Putin made it an offence to promote “fake news” on the Russian army’s actions in Ukraine, while media outlets have been ordered to call the war a “special military operation”. Kremlin propaganda has also been ramped up to unprecedented levels as the almost 10-month-long war continues. As it began all light entertainment shows were scrapped and Channel One, the country’s flagship station, pumped out pro-war propaganda 18 hours a day from 9am to 3am.
> 
> “Russia’s actions in Ukraine are, in essence, anti-war,” Dmitry Kiselyov, the Kremlin’s chief propagandist, said on a current affairs show in April. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has even denied Russia invaded Ukraine.
> 
> Last week Ilya Yashin, a Kremlin critic, was imprisoned for more than eight years over an online video about atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Bucha, a town near Kyiv. Russia insists its forces have not targeted civilians in Ukraine and says that only information about the war approved by its defence ministry can be considered reliable.
> 
> Ominously for the Kremlin, 1984 also burst into the best-selling lists in neighbouring Belarus in 2020 before massive protests against President Alexander Lukashenko. However, some Russian officials have their own take on Orwell’s novel. “For many years we thought Orwell was describing totalitarianism. This is one of the global fakes,” Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, said in May. “Orwell wrote about the end of liberalism. He wrote how liberalism would lead humanity into a dead end. He wasn’t writing about the Soviet Union, but about the society in which he lived.”
> 
> Ms Zakharov’s comments were echoed by Darya Tselovalnikova, the translator of a new Russian edition of 1984, who insisted the novel depicted an era of “totalitarian liberalism” in the West.
> 
> Although Orwell’s book was banned in the Soviet Union until 1988, it was made available to select members of the Communist Party in a special, numbered print run. Copies of the Soviet-produced novel are on sale in Russia for thousands of dollars.
> 
> The Times


----------



## Sean K

Various reports that Belarus are preparing to enter the war, not that they weren't already. Oh dear.


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## Dona Ferentes

Sean K said:


> Various reports that Belarus are preparing to enter the war, not that they weren't already.



_Belarus is not already in the war; Russian forces in Feb did use their territory for incursions. 

A measured view from ISW puts a more nuanced view:_

*Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely pressure Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for Russian-Belarusian integration concessions at an upcoming December 19 meeting in Minsk—Putin’s first meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk since 2019.[11] *Lukashenko and Putin reportedly will discuss Russian-Belarusian integration issues, unspecified military-political issues, and implementing Union State programs.[12] The Union State is a supranational agreement from 1997 with the stated goal of the federal integration of Russia and Belarus under a joint structure. The Kremlin seeks to use the Union State to establish Russian suzerainty (control) over Belarus.[13]

*Lukashenko is already setting information conditions to deflect Russian integration demands as he has done for decades.[14] *Lukashenko stressed that "nobody but us is ruling Belarus," and that Belarus is ready to build relations with Russia but that their ties "should always proceed from the premise that we are a sovereign and independent state."[15] It is unclear whether Putin will be successful in extracting his desired concessions from Lukashenko. Lukashenko has so far largely resisted intensified Russian integration demands and has refused to commit Belarusian forces to join Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

*Putin’s visit to Minsk could indicate that Putin is trying to set conditions for the newly assessed most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) that ISW reported on December 15: a renewed offensive against Ukraine—possibly against northern Ukraine or Kyiv—in winter 2023.[16]* Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin signed an unspecified document to further strengthen bilateral security ties—likely in the context of the Russian-Belarusian Union State—and increase Russian pressure on Belarus to further support the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Minsk on December 3.[17] ISW’s December 15 MDCOA warning forecast about a potential Russian offensive against northern Ukraine in winter 2023 remains a worst-case scenario within the forecast cone. ISW currently assesses a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low, but possible. Belarusian forces remain extremely unlikely to invade Ukraine without a Russian strike force. It is far from clear that Lukashenko would commit Belarusian forces to fight in Ukraine even alongside Russian troops. There are still no indicators that Russian forces are forming a strike force in Belarus.[18]

*Putin and Lukashenko’s meeting will—at a minimum—advance a separate Russian information operation that seeks to break Ukrainian will and Western willingness to support Ukraine, however. *This meeting will reinforce the Russian information operation designed to convince Ukrainians and Westerners that Russia may attack Ukraine from Belarus. Russia’s continued strikes against Kyiv, constant troop deployments to Belarus, and continued bellicose rhetoric are part of (and mutually reinforce) this information operation....


----------



## sptrawler

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html
		


Ukraine has been calling for the US to send the advanced long-range air defense system that is highly effective at intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles as it comes under a barrage of Russian missile and drone attacks that have destroyed key infrastructure across the country. It would be the most effective long-range defensive weapons system sent to the country and officials say it will help secure airspace for NATO nations in eastern Europe.

It is not clear how many missile launchers will be sent but a typical Patriot battery includes a radar set that detects and tracks targets, computers, power generating equipment, an engagement control station and up to eight launchers, each holding four ready to fire missiles.

Once the plans are finalized, the Patriots are expected to ship quickly in the coming days and Ukrainians will be trained to use them at a US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, officials said.


----------



## sptrawler

If patriot surface to air missile batteries are deployed and If Russia is running low on munitions, one would expect high strike rate against older style Russian cruise missiles.
Interesting times.









						Russia To Run Out Of Ammunition By 2023; Relying On 'Degraded' Soviet-Era Weapons With High Failure Rate -- Pentagon
					

After more than nine months of full-fledged conflict in Ukraine, Russia is increasingly relying on deteriorated artillery and rocket shells, some of which were manufactured more than four decades ago, the pentagon announced.




					eurasiantimes.com


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> Interesting times.




At least.


----------



## qldfrog

mullokintyre said:


> Its always interesting to look at the final nominations for Times POY.
> from Time
> Xi jinping (yeah its for real, go read the article)
> The US Supreme Court
> Elon Musk
> Liz Cheney
> Mackenzie Scott (Bezos ex wife)
> and of Course Zelensky
> 
> Could see some reason for Musks nomination, and most certainly for Mackenzie Scott given her Philanthropic donations.
> But Cheney?  The commie dictator?  The  Supreme Court?
> Some notable ones that missed out include the Murdered Iranian woman that sparked protests in Iran , Masa Amini , or Xiamaro Castro, the first woman president of  Honduras, or maybe Pelosi,  or maybe even Georgia Meloni who became the first elected female prime minister of Italy.
> Mick



Zelensky is a given ?
A US intelligence puppet and crook but probably deserves a 1rst place.
As pointed above,man of the year does not have to be positive  even if i somehow guess it will be a glowing positive story🙄


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## Dona Ferentes

Altered states


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## JohnDe




----------

