# IVC - InvoCare Limited



## dennisll (17 May 2006)

IVC is the only listed business in the "death" industry in Australia.  Operates funeral homes and crematoria.  Has significant market share in a fragmented industry where most businesses are family owned.  

PROs
Growth through acquisition of smaller, family-run businesses.  
Well placed for the eventual acceleration of the death rate, as the baby boomer generation move on to the better place.
Predictable and consistent customer base.  High level of satisfaction among existing clients.
Industry has relatively high barrier of entry.

CONs
Death rate traditionally very slow to increase, resulting in slow increase in EPS for some years to come.
Risk of unhealthy returns from investments of funds acquired from pre-need funeral plans.

Would appreciate any comments or additions to the above listed information.

Cheers,

Dennis

Disclosure:  I own shares in IVC


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## Duckman#72 (3 August 2006)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Invocare rose 10% today. Haven't checked announcements yet but big jump. Now almost $5.00.


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## michael_selway (5 August 2006)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



			
				Duckman#72 said:
			
		

> Invocare rose 10% today. Haven't checked announcements yet but big jump. Now almost $5.00.




hm it dropped 10% today but

yeah no idea why the spike from $4?

Maybe more people expected to die now beacuse of the war?

thx

MS


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## Kauri (22 August 2007)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Added to my only remaining long-term investment holding IVC today at $5.71... the ongoing volatility in the markets might see them pick up a bit of business, maybe on the footpaths in George St, Collins St and St Georges Tce..
  Cheers
..Kauri


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## IFocus (22 August 2007)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



> the ongoing volatility in the markets might see them pick up a bit of business, maybe on the footpaths in George St, Collins St and St Georges Tce..




Thanks for that Kauri really cracked me up 

I was looking to do the same some time soon

Heres to more volatility 

Cheers
Focus


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## greenfs (23 August 2007)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

I am certain that one of the major broking house recently put out a buy recommendation on this stock fairly recently with a sp target of $8. Does  anyone else remember seeing this report? 

Having a 30%+ share in a growing industry certainly makes the business model attractive and this has histrorically been reflected in the north bound share price.


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## nawshus (5 March 2010)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

IVC has been pretty solid for the past month, it's been rising slowly. Not much news on invocare in terms of operation, but I think their doing pretty well. This is a type of stock that I'll be holding for a long time.


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## Tyler Durden (8 May 2012)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Been keeping an eye on this stock for a while, finally got in today at $8.18.


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## catfish (9 May 2012)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Tyler Durden said:


> Been keeping an eye on this stock for a while, finally got in today at $8.18.




I bit expensive in my opinion, though it's a great company with solid outlook. I got in a few years ago under $6 and I got out in the high $7s. I can't see the company failing


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## ROE (9 May 2012)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Ok business but the only reason it doing well is its large market share
it is a capital intensive business and people stupid enough to pay pre-paid funeral 

Super expensive at these level, it has to trade $6 and under for me to be interested.

it wont go up much further from this level unless the market is F**ken mad 
chance of a correction more likely


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## Tyler Durden (9 May 2012)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



catfish said:


> I bit expensive in my opinion, though it's a great company with solid outlook. I got in a few years ago under $6 and I got out in the high $7s. I can't see the company failing






ROE said:


> Ok business but the only reason it doing well is its large market share
> it is a capital intensive business and people stupid enough to pay pre-paid funeral
> 
> Super expensive at these level, it has to trade $6 and under for me to be interested.
> ...




Agree, and I will buy more if it drops down to $7ish.


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## ENP (29 October 2012)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

I would like to purchase stocks in this company one day. But I fail to see why people are willing to pay 28+ times earnings for a business that is only growing around the 9-11% range annually. 

I would love to own it, but would only pay about 50% off what is it trading at now. 

If only the stock market went on sale more often!


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## Muschu (13 January 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Tyler Durden said:


> Agree, and I will buy more if it drops down to $7ish.




I wonder what the general view is now?  Pretty solid industry.


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## McLovin (13 January 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

~30x earnings for a bunch of undertakers. Unless the Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse have been spotted, what am I missing? Or why are people dying to buy these guys?


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## skc (14 January 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



McLovin said:


> ~30x earnings for a bunch of undertakers. Unless the Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse have been spotted, what am I missing? Or why are people dying to buy these guys?




Unless they offer shareholder discount...


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## chops_a_must (25 February 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



McLovin said:


> ~30x earnings for a bunch of undertakers. Unless the Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse have been spotted, what am I missing? Or why are people dying to buy these guys?




Almost total monopoly in the market.

Licenses are extremely hard to acquire. Regulatory burdens and hurdles make an introduction of competition extremely difficult.

Been a great stock for me over the years.

Growing market, and unless they start building furnaces willy nilly, why not own it?


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## chops_a_must (2 April 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Keeps chugging along.

Big volume on a recent dip. And increasing volume pushing into all time highs.


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## chops_a_must (20 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Another outstanding break into all time highs after a little bit of sideways consolidation and continuation.


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## Tyler Durden (20 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



chops_a_must said:


> Another outstanding break into all time highs after a little bit of sideways consolidation and continuation.




Anyone know the reason?

I wish I had bought more before


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## tinhat (20 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Tyler Durden said:


> Anyone know the reason?




Demand exceeded supply?


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## Tyler Durden (21 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



tinhat said:


> Demand exceeded supply?




And why is that?


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## Tyler Durden (27 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*





Sharp drop today on no news.


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## skc (27 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Tyler Durden said:


> View attachment 52442
> 
> 
> Sharp drop today on no news.




AGM last week prompting updates from various analysts.

Downgraded by UBS today.

The market has been marking down sharp a bunch of mid-cap shares that were trading at high PE multiples... like REA, CRZ, FLT, DMP, AGI, IIN, TPM, MTU, AMM etc. IVC fits the bill quite well.


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## Tyler Durden (27 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



skc said:


> AGM last week prompting updates from various analysts.
> 
> Downgraded by UBS today.
> 
> The market has been marking down sharp a bunch of mid-cap shares that were trading at high PE multiples... like REA, CRZ, FLT, DMP, AGI, IIN, TPM, MTU, AMM etc. IVC fits the bill quite well.




Ok thanks skc, that makes sense then. If it drops below $10, I'm in.


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## skc (28 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Tyler Durden said:


> Ok thanks skc, that makes sense then. If it drops below $10, I'm in.




I will buy IVC only if they offer discounted coffin and plot for the holder


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## tinhat (28 May 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



skc said:


> I will buy IVC only if they offer discounted coffin and plot for the holder




What's your budget? I might be able to help you out.


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## skc (20 August 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Half year report out today. Revenue up 5% to $183.6m. Reported NPAT $21.5m but included some one-offs. Operating earning down 9% to $17.2m due to... less people dying! Yet share price only down 3.5%

So full year these guys will probably have flatish EPS @ 40c... so they are trying at 28x earning.

Some shares you say it's priced for perfection. This one, it's priced for World War Z.

Anyway... got a short trade on these at current levels in anticipation of some analyst downgrade tomorrow. Position size is only small though as it's not the most liquid stock around.


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## VSntchr (21 August 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



skc said:


> Half year report out today. Revenue up 5% to $183.6m. Reported NPAT $21.5m but included some one-offs. Operating earning down 9% to $17.2m due to... less people dying! Yet share price only down 3.5%
> 
> So full year these guys will probably have flatish EPS @ 40c... so they are trying at 28x earning.
> 
> ...




I agree and I also have a short on inside my trading portfolio. CCL is another that fit the criteria for me yesterday...

Ill be giving it a month or so to play out...


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## Tyler Durden (26 August 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Got down to $10.75 today, starting to look tasty for me (long term perspective).


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## VSntchr (26 August 2013)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Tyler Durden said:


> Got down to $10.75 today, starting to look tasty for me (long term perspective).




Priced to the moon and growth is not getting there just yet.
Id be waiting for single digits on this at least....


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## VSntchr (21 February 2014)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Hmmm...so IVC is leveraged to an increasing death rate and market share improvements.
Latest result shows that despite IVC stating the expected death rate is to climb by 1% p.a, it most recently fell by 0.8% pa....And they lost market share..yet the price has gone up since the result!

They also talk about rigorous cost management, yet the costs I am looking at are all up substantially. Personnel expenses are up ~11% vs. total rev growth of 5% (incl. acquired businesses).

Operating margin 22.5% vs 24.4% PCP.


There is nothing horrible about these results, but when you sitting on a 25x earnings multiple and offering a 3% yield...I'd be wanting a little more...


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## VSntchr (21 February 2014)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Edit: was looking at H1 not FY!

H2 was much better than H1, but still not shooting the lights out...


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## galumay (21 February 2014)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

I noticed the Interest cover ratio has improved significantly, that was an obvious problem for mine and kept IVC off my watch list.

I still find its trading above the IV i calculate for it, growth is simply too small to justify the price over $10.


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## coolcup (19 August 2014)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Market appears to have liked its 1H14 result with the shares up nearly 9% today.

1H14 operating EPS was up 13% with the divvy up 5%. They seem to have arrested the decline in their market share while also benefiting from price increases (4.4% yoy) albeit volume growth was fairly stagnant. May and June showed a sharper increase in volumes vs pcp.

If no volume growth + 4% price growth = 13% bottom line growth, then imagine what the earnings could do if volumes start growing again, as shown in May and June.

I continue to hold, albeit the stock is now trading slightly ahead of my estimate of fair value.


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## Magnum9 (23 September 2016)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*

Interesting reading these comments now 2 years old. Invocare now at $14, any current opinions?


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## Junior (23 September 2016)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Magnum9 said:


> Interesting reading these comments now 2 years old. Invocare now at $14, any current opinions?




More folks dyin' each year.


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## fanger (23 September 2016)

*Re: IVC - Invocare*



Junior said:


> More folks dyin' each year.




That's why I like this business, bought in at $10.50 still happy to hold long term.


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## fanger (1 March 2017)

Great report for them still happy to hold


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## HelloU (23 January 2018)

Getting belted atm. It is about to report so that is a worry but some say drop to do with UK funeral firm (not associated) having issues. $15mill for some new buys but they have the $, so dunno (mind you the cashflow returns from the new buys - if approved by govt - look pretty ordinary.  Gold or lead?


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## Movendi (19 February 2018)

I'm looking to hear opinions as to why prices fell upon positive report?
FY18 net profit up 37% to $97.4m (Consensus est 62.375m, Citi est $76.77). Sales revenue up 1.8% to $470.9m. Operating EBITDA up 7.8% to $124.3m.


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## Country Lad (19 February 2018)

Movendi said:


> I'm looking to hear opinions as to why prices fell upon positive report?




1. Lowered guidance and market disappointed with lower growth - expected more
2. Market share fell

Sell-off may have been a little overdone, but that is the market these days of volatility.


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## HelloU (20 February 2018)

as above, and the recent 'takeover' thing did not help make management shine. Non-cyclical so a good industry to see if your strategies are working.....so growth estimates need to be better.


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## So_Cynical (20 February 2018)

Looking at the 5 years chart, big picture, today's drop to 13 dollars isn't a big deal, just hitting the bottom support line, stocks being stocks.
`


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## fanger (23 February 2018)

Movendi said:


> I'm looking to hear opinions as to why prices fell upon positive report?
> FY18 net profit up 37% to $97.4m (Consensus est 62.375m, Citi est $76.77). Sales revenue up 1.8% to $470.9m. Operating EBITDA up 7.8% to $124.3m.




I thought the report was excellent but there outlook is flat for next year. I'm still happy to hold.


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## peter2 (27 April 2018)

First bullish signs for a long time puts this into my reversal watch list. I'd prefer to see a setup on the weekly chart rather than the daily.


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## HelloU (30 April 2018)

Yup, having little nibbles but no real rush required imo, management still pretty quiet so any load is way too gutsy for me. There are peeps that would be 30% down in 4 months so no doubt some will be bailing idc making that stairway up a slow grind - assuming there will be an up.......cos up would mean $13ish now is cheap, rather than fair. Not so sure.


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## HelloU (2 May 2018)

2 days later and management has spoken......seems 13 was neither cheap nor fair.........seems 13 was expensive........down 6% on speaking......maybe u need to use the monthly chat @peter2 for ur signal...just for a little more safety factor. lol.


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## peter2 (2 May 2018)

The latest presentation reads well. Business has dropped by only 6-7% for logical reasons (US closure, Singapore temp closure, refurbs and would you believe it less Aussies are dying).

The chart shows that the share price has dropped 30% in 2018. Price is near support at 12.50, double bottom weekly and monthly charts. I would expect long term investors  will start buying soon and create the bullish setup that I need to see. Well worth keeping on the reversal watch list.


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## So_Cynical (3 May 2018)

peter2 said:


> The chart shows that the share price has dropped 30% in 2018. Price is near support at 12.50, double bottom weekly and monthly charts. I would expect long term investors  will start buying soon and create the bullish setup that I need to see.




Yep i think ive convinced myself - though im not 100% comfortable with buying death shares..


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## HelloU (3 May 2018)

*chart


peter2 said:


> ........ less Aussies are dying......



no consideration for others....joke peeps.
cynical, like I said I thought it was getting safe and was nibbling packets but that down yesterday has reinforced that I know absolutely nothing. Maybe u could grab some monash ivf at the same time as an appeasement to ur gods to help balance those thoughts u r having.  My balance to recent downs here is in helping to prolong those lives with upside in cyp and hopefully imu (nugget warnings), but eventually we all go the ivc way -  or the other mob into this.


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## greggles (3 May 2018)

IVC is starting to look a little ill. It hasn't plumbed these depths since April 2016. The Performance Update released yesterday didn't inspire any confidence.


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## peter2 (4 May 2018)

Can I mention that reversals normally take some time to form. It's very rare to see a "V" reversal after a high volume down bar that closes near it's low. 

This current price action may be capitulation selling. This is the first requirement for a reversal. An acceptable setup (for me) may not form for six months. IVC is still on my reversal watchlist and I'll see it when it forms.


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## peter2 (4 May 2018)

Here's a chart of a nameless stock. On the left, I bought the BO-NH and was looking sweet, until some bad news was released. I didn't think the news was that bad so kept an eye on the chart. It was just a division having a period of slow demand and this weighed on the overall P&L. It took four months for the reversal to form and price is currently higher than the swing high on this chart.


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## So_Cynical (4 May 2018)

greggles said:


> The Performance Update released yesterday didn't inspire any confidence.




It sparked a little confidence in me, made me spend an hour or so looking over the last Annual report and a couple from years past, 18000 share holders so i figure lots of mums and dads and SMSF's the number of shareholders has increased by over 100% in the last decade while shares on issue is only up about 12%, yesterdays selling was a little panic selling from retail investors that only found out about the previous 7% fall when the market was closed.

Top 20 owns 52% and its a who's who of LIC's and Banks, BKI, Argo, AFI, AUI, IOOF, Milton etc - IVC is a widely held and widely liked stock and its not hard to see why, 25% margins, market domination in a market that few want to participate in, easy roll up opportunity's, disruption proof and cant be done in China, they haven't raised capital in 10 years and even purchase shares on market for their dividend reinvestment plan. 

Lots to like - Im in.


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## So_Cynical (9 May 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Lots to like - Im in.




Early days yet but so far so good, volume is dropping by the day and volatility has stalled.
~


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## peter2 (10 May 2018)

For those of you who know Wolfe waves. Is my application correct?


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## HelloU (16 May 2018)

MQG seem keen.....have been buying and now substantial holder.


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## HelloU (16 May 2018)

mid june also often presents buying opportunities for this (not always but usually) in the tax merry go round. Of course, you can never go back to mid may18 if you are at mid jun18.


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## HelloU (16 May 2018)

HelloU said:


> MQG seem keen.....have been buying and now substantial holder.



and as quick as that they are not.


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## So_Cynical (17 May 2018)

HelloU said:


> and as quick as that they are not.




Looks like they were closing out shorts - Borrow return?

The becoming Ann the day before was - Borrow delivery and some Borrow returns.

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Anyway up 5% today and im in the money...


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## HelloU (17 May 2018)

yeah, follow the money.


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## So_Cynical (17 May 2018)

$2.70 now - up another 2% on a down day...


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## HelloU (18 May 2018)

HelloU said:


> mid june also often presents buying opportunities for this (not always but usually) in the tax merry go round. Of course, you can never go back to mid may18 if you are at mid jun18.



note to self...prolly mid june ......"things are tough and we have no ideas in the suggestion box so we will just carry on till next year and see if things get better, coz they appear to be getting worse".....is that what was said today, or did I misinterpret?


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## tinhat (22 May 2018)

Interesting to read the t/a and charts posted in the past few weeks. IVO is a stock I have never owned and don't follow, but I am aware of the business.

In terms of picking a bottom and avoiding catching a falling knife, for me, the chart doesn't indicate a bottom yet. 

Looking at the weekly the chart has has only just crossed over into a bear formation using the "golden cross" comparison between the 30 week moving average (MA) and the 50 week MA. The price has recovered through trading at higher volumes over the past couple of weeks as buyers are seeing value as the RSI indicates the stock entered "over-sold" territory.







Looking at the daily chart, the stock has yet to make a new high which would be the first sign indicating a possible reversal and, as of yet, no new higher-low has been plotting which would further strengthen a reversal signal.


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## So_Cynical (23 May 2018)

6 and 12 months chart has IVC at the top of the channel, down channel, to break out of the channel the price just has to hold for a month or so..shouldn't be to hard to do.


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## So_Cynical (28 May 2018)

Touched $13 ~ at what point to the shorts decide to close out?


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## JTLP (28 May 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Touched $13 ~ at what point to the shorts decide to close out?




It was on shortman a few days ago. Maybe they’ve made their money and moved on?


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## JTLP (31 May 2018)

IVC finishing strongly again today. Fair few days in the green in a row. Looked fair at 11.50 - does $13 need a breather?


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## HelloU (18 June 2018)

JTLP said:


> IVC finishing strongly again today. Fair few days in the green in a row. Looked fair at 11.50 - does $13 need a breather?



looks to be drawing breath now near end of june at low 13's.......would think its mqg back having a final end of year buying spree similar to the last one - if not them then someone similar as doubters are back over 11% this week. Cannot say that is of much concern to me though........but also not expecting too much short term greatness as peeps ponder how the banks are really travelling.


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## So_Cynical (19 June 2018)

HelloU said:


> doubters are back over 11% this week.




Some pretty dodgy shorts on the daily list, i own a long/short fund and they have to be short something..


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## HelloU (19 June 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Some pretty dodgy shorts on the daily list, i own a long/short fund and they have to be short something..



yeah lol, reminds of when I decide to increase cash for all the right financial reasons...and then find that my financial fun has dropped inversely.....


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## So_Cynical (19 June 2018)

NAN has been one of the most shorted stocks for weeks, currently 12.59% short and NAN up another 3.2% so far today..perhaps weight of shorts leads to confidence in shorts? and the long /short funds do have to short something.


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## So_Cynical (9 July 2018)

Closed above $14 today for the first time since mid March, a flat V bottom, anyone that got in at under 12 bucks is looking pretty good now, apparently some are expecting a bad report come August.



So_Cynical said:


> (May 4. 2018) It sparked a little confidence in me ~ Lots to like - Im in.



~


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## JTLP (10 July 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Closed above $14 today for the first time since mid March, a flat V bottom, anyone that got in at under 12 bucks is looking pretty good now, apparently some are expecting a bad report come August.
> 
> 
> ~
> View attachment 88239




Spewing. I thought in the $11s it was good value but couldn’t pull the trigger. Popped nicely yesterday.


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## JTLP (12 July 2018)

Invocare are acquiring a fair few smaller players at the moment. Does this suggest consolidation or that there organic growth just isn’t there, so bolt ons are necessary?


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## So_Cynical (13 July 2018)

JTLP said:


> Invocare are acquiring a fair few smaller players at the moment. Does this suggest consolidation or that there organic growth just isn’t there, so bolt ons are necessary?




Its a bit of a roll up, no prob with that.


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## HelloU (13 July 2018)

JTLP said:


> Invocare are acquiring a fair few smaller players at the moment. Does this suggest consolidation or that there organic growth just isn’t there, so bolt ons are necessary?



short answer yes.....the coy already announced that they are doing their best for existing assets and have few improvement ideas for them......so bolt ons it is. At some stage they will need to decide if they want a 'national brand' for their assets. 
They dipped way below their long term up channel, but are now firmly back inside.


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## HelloU (16 August 2018)

Hmmmm......buying any bolt-ons in sight but a cut to dividends..........dunno what management is saying here........and down 10%


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## JTLP (16 August 2018)

HelloU said:


> Hmmmm......buying any bolt-ons in sight but a cut to dividends..........dunno what management is saying here........and down 10%




That’s what I thought would happen. Just buying to basically generate business as the slowdown has been sharp (people living longer a good thing [emoji4]).


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## notting (16 August 2018)

JTLP said:


> people living longer a good thing




Bodes well for future earnings.


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## HelloU (16 August 2018)

it runs on a massive PE, is buying bolt ons for future earnings growth but cannot keep divs in a non cyclical industry, and right now it struggles with keeping forecasts. this is what I am thinking about whilst groin scratching here.


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## So_Cynical (17 August 2018)

HelloU said:


> Hmmmm......buying any bolt-ons in sight but a cut to dividends..........dunno what management is saying here........and down 10%




They are expanding, so they have a choice to buy into a new area or compete with the incumbent, the sensible thing would be to buy in, payout the incumbent and then give them a job.

No surprises really.


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## HelloU (17 August 2018)

..buy country cos really they will be allowed few more in the city and that is where the other mob are......fully get the anticipated earnings from all that.....but unsure if that will translate into profit growth and trickle down to divs (and if yes in whose lifetime).....My surprise was that the div dropped...........what is that message?


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## HelloU (8 October 2018)

HelloU said:


> it runs on a massive PE, is buying bolt ons for future earnings growth but cannot keep divs in a non cyclical industry, and right now it struggles with keeping forecasts. this is what I am thinking about whilst groin scratching here.



bump
SARCASM WARNING    'getting some consistency now (with not meeting forecasts)'  SARCASM WARNING
I will look again at $10-60 (but just delete that if we do not talk financial numbers)


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## JTLP (8 October 2018)

HelloU said:


> bump
> SARCASM WARNING    'getting some consistency now (with not meeting forecasts)'  SARCASM WARNING
> I will look again at $10-60 (but just delete that if we do not talk financial numbers)




Thought the same thing; things aren’t looking great. 

Strangest Ann too; bad (good?) flu season meant numbers were down. It really is a morbid business!


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## HelloU (8 October 2018)

JTLP said:


> Thought the same thing; things aren’t looking great.
> 
> Strangest Ann too; bad (good?) flu season meant numbers were down. It really is a morbid business!



what frustrates me is that it should be a dominating powerhouse in the industry - I mean who actually wants to be the competition to this (not talking about the other one).......and yet it is now another of my shares that requires capital management (when I am trying to have less of those).


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## So_Cynical (8 October 2018)

JTLP said:


> Strangest Ann too; bad (good?) flu season meant numbers were down. It really is a morbid business!




Saw a chart last week to back this up, found a NSW one to demonstrate.
~





~
Black line is 2018 top (pink) line is last year...yep its a super morbid business.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/Influenza/Publications/2018/weekending-30092018.pdf


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## HelloAgain (8 October 2018)

I bought this in the IPO for about $1.60 (from memory) and been in the DRP ever since. The winter death rate was considerably lower than expected but when that’s happened before, there’s a reversion to the mean with higher death rates in the next couple of seasons. When the death rate drops, so does pricing power apparently.


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## HelloAgain (8 October 2018)

JTLP said:


> That’s what I thought would happen. Just buying to basically generate business as the slowdown has been sharp (people living longer a good thing [emoji4]).




It won’t last though, there’s eventually reversion to the mean.


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## Value Hunter (10 October 2018)

I think one long term key risk with this stock that does not get much discussion is rising longevity of the general population. There is a real possibility (although it is far from certain) that in 20 years time the average life span of Australians could be substantially higher than today (due to medical advances). This would be obviously have a negative impact on their business.

This is aside from the well documented fact that roll up stories (i.e. growth via acquisition) have an extremely low success rate and in particular the risk seems to rise the bigger you get. In a roll up story it often works well in the beginning but once you start getting to big in your industry you have to buy more and more small operators to get the same level (percentage) of earnings growth. For example if you have to buy 30 dental practices in one year to get 15% earnings growth compared to buying 3 when you were much smaller. 

When you make fewer acquisitions you can be more selective in regards to price, location, quality of the business, etc. But once you start making acquisitions in large numbers you have to be less discerning in addition to the fact that you may be pushing up the market price of such businesses when you buy so many of them. 

I know Peter Lynch mentioned roll ups as a type of stock to look at buying but the failure rate of this business model appears to me to be far too high. 

Can anybody name a roll up story on the Australian stock market that hasn't ended badly? Many look good at first but eventually they stumble. QBE insurance (under Frank O Halloran they made huge numbers of acquisitions), ABC learning, Greencross, G8 education, Retail Food Group. 1800 smiles is still doing pretty well but they are still tiny. Let's see how they fare in 10 years time when they are a bigger operation. Roll up stories are like cyclicals you have to get in and out at the right time. They are not usually buy and hold stocks.


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## HelloU (20 December 2018)

HelloU said:


> bump
> SARCASM WARNING    'getting some consistency now (with not meeting forecasts)'  SARCASM WARNING
> I will look again at $10-60 (but just delete that if we do not talk financial numbers)




and there it is ...but spend is still too unclear ......


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## sptrawler (20 December 2018)

Value Hunter said:


> I think one long term key risk with this stock that does not get much discussion is rising longevity of the general population. There is a real possibility (although it is far from certain) that in 20 years time the average life span of Australians could be substantially higher than today (due to medical advances). This would be obviously have a negative impact on their business..




I tend to wonder if life expectancy will increase, with the obesity epidemic and the sedentary lifestyle that is currently enjoyed in Australia.


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## bigdog (20 December 2018)

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/12/20/why-the-invocare-share-price-crashed-7-lower-today/

Motley Fool reported today

*Why the InvoCare share price crashed 7% lower today*
James Mickleboro | December 20, 2018 |
One of the worst performers on the ASX 200 on Thursday has been the *InvoCare Limited* (ASX: IVC) share price.

The funeral company’s shares fell almost 7.5% in early trade to a 52-week low of $10.12.

*Why is the InvoCare share price crashing lower today?*

With no news out of InvoCare today, this decline is likely to be attributable to a trading update out of rival *Propel Funeral Partners Ltd* (ASX: PFP).

Propel’s update warned that continued weakness in funeral market conditions in Australia means that it expects operating net profit after tax to be in line with the prior corresponding period.

This weakness has been blamed on the funeral industry cycling through a strong prior corresponding period which included a severe flu season and below trend funeral volumes this year due to a benign flu season.

An example of this is the sharp decline in registered deaths in Tasmania so far in FY 2019.

According to Propel’s figures, registered deaths in Tasmania from July 1 to November 30 have fallen by 17.9% on the prior corresponding period. This has led to a materially lower number of funerals being performed by Propel in the market and presumably it is the same for InvoCare.

Propel also warned that other key Australian markets have experienced material estimated death volume declines, with most relevant markets experiencing at least a 5% volume decline in FY 2019 compared to a year earlier.

This appears to have spooked InvoCare shareholders and led to them heading to the exits in their droves today.

*What now?*

One glimmer of hope for InvoCare is that history is on its side.

According to Propel’s CEO, Albin Kurti, these tough trading conditions are expected to be temporary.

He said: “Historical experience suggests that the significant, year on year decline in death volumes we’ve seen in calendar year 2018 should be temporary, given the growing and ageing population, and prior year on year declines have rebounded quickly. When the rebound occurs, Propel will be well placed to benefit, given operating leverage within the business.”

*Should you buy the dip?*

At 21x estimated forward earnings I don’t see a lot of value in InvoCare’s shares at these levels, especially given the tough trading conditions it is experiencing.

In light of this, I intend to stay clear of its shares until trading conditions are far more favourable.


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## HelloU (23 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> bump
> SARCASM WARNING    'getting some consistency now (with not meeting forecasts)'  SARCASM WARNING
> I will look again at $10-60 (but just delete that if we do not talk financial numbers)



.... and so it came to pass ...... they needed more of my xmas money at $14 in that raise and it has now made a 52wk high at $16 odd and just $1 off all time highs. got me stuffed as i do not see the value but i do recognise green. trade the trade. 

(post is about if it will go another $)


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## So_Cynical (23 May 2019)

We are 2 bucks away from the all time high of 17 months ago, its been a real fast turn around, IVC is a roll up and thats a negative of sorts but its a roll
up in an industry that no one wants a bar of and yet everyone will contribute to at some point, i always looked at IVC as one of those quality stocks that
everyone should hold and thought the opportunity of late 18 was too good to pass up...i do have a knack for these things.
~


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## HelloU (23 May 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> We are 2 bucks away from the all time high of 17 months ago, its been a real fast turn around, IVC is a roll up and thats a negative of sorts but its a roll
> up in an industry that no one wants a bar of and yet everyone will contribute to at some point, i always looked at IVC as one of those quality stocks that
> everyone should hold and thought the opportunity of late 18 was too good to pass up...i do have a knack for these things.
> ~
> View attachment 94854



thanks (2 bucks)
i missed that 98c on the back end of the 17 but knew it was headin for a record (and do not know why) ............. maths was never my strong point. when the lead up to the CR at $14 had the sp suddenly at $14.50 i was certain it was a pump and gunna go sub $14 again after the raise (instead of burbling along to $15.50. anyhow, good looks will get me thru. next div amount will be interesting.
(remx down 2 but i sorta thought that when lynas otc opened down 5 - too late to pull)


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## HelloU (15 August 2019)

sub $14 trades 2day  ........  they do pets now ....... wonder if that can all happen concurrently for those that wish that? (joke peeps - or is it?)

(forget remx ...... barely got a cent in that ...... at least there is no tax on a 1 cent profit.... sometimes those coins can be material though  )


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## Knobby22 (26 February 2020)

My pick. Big rise today and an obvious winner if the virus hits our shores.


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## So_Cynical (27 February 2020)

The big fall in late 2018 was all about the low death rates from the flu, COVID-19 will eventually 
lead to a higher death rate, more funerals, this winter or the next it's unstoppable, a certainty.


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## peter2 (27 February 2020)

Did he say "certainty".


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## tinhat (27 February 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> The big fall in late 2018 was all about the low death rates from the flu, COVID-19 will eventually
> lead to a higher death rate, more funerals, this winter or the next it's unstoppable, a certainty.



i think this post sums up where we are morally when we wish for more people to die. Should I wish for your mother or grandmother to die so that I can profit from their overpriced coffin?

Is this where we are at? Because I am more than happy to call it out. I will sing from the hill tops where trees once swayed at the baboons that think its fine to wish for pandemic death so that they may profit.

Good day and good riddance to you Sir.


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## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> i think this post sums up where we are morally when we wish for more people to die. Should I wish for your mother or grandmother to die so that I can profit from their overpriced coffin?
> 
> Is this where we are at? Because I am more than happy to call it out. I will sing from the hill tops where trees once swayed at the baboons that think its fine to wish for pandemic death so that they may profit.
> 
> Good day and good riddance to you Sir.



Really?
When everyone was dismissing that virus as another flu, i switched even more conservative and bought invocare and ann.
I do not see anything immoral in this.some people made their wealth here on company exploiting Australia and selling us fake goods.i did not go there.
I do not wish more death, and if a vaccines or treatment comes tomorrow, the better invocare will fall but we will all be better off.
It is an insurance bet, and a needed role in society.we all die..a decent company.


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## So_Cynical (28 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> i think this post sums up where we are morally when we wish for more people to die. Should I wish for your mother or grandmother to die so that I can profit from their overpriced coffin?
> 
> Is this where we are at? Because I am more than happy to call it out. I will sing from the hill tops where trees once swayed at the baboons that think its fine to wish for pandemic death so that they may profit.
> 
> Good day and good riddance to you Sir.




You should read the IVC annual report, they have death charts and flu charts - Death is a terrible business but someone's gotta do it.


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## sptrawler (28 February 2020)

It is a very sad fact of life, with the baby boomers moving into the departure lounge, funeral services should have a reasonable run.
In 20 years time, the two baby families come through, so one would think, there will be a reversal later.
That is unless there is further consolidation in the sector.
Just my opinion.
I dont hold


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## Knobby22 (1 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> My pick. Big rise today and an obvious winner if the virus hits our shores.



I'm hoping to lose this month. I am hopeful we will control the virus here. I am pretty sure Japan and South will control their outbreaks. China is winning.

The middle East is difficult. Asia is an unknown. Europe is acting strongly.
The USA is my main concern due to them being behind the curve due to cutbacks.
If they muckup then continental America will follow, it already has a hold unfortunately, this will be the headlines in the coming week.

I don't own.


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## qldfrog (1 March 2020)

The


Knobby22 said:


> I'm hoping to lose this month. I am hopeful we will control the virus here. I am pretty sure Japan and South will control their outbreaks. China is winning.
> 
> The middle East is difficult. Asia is an unknown. Europe is acting strongly.
> The USA is my main concern due to them being behind the curve due to cutbacks.
> ...



 Way i see it, there is no half measure, either it is controlled and eliminated every where or we all get it at some stage even if it is controlled fully eliminated even from China South Korea here etc
 if it is in Iran them Middle East then back to Europe with their open policy no control on migrants with Italy being a passage point
So any win will be short lived  and our hope is on both no worsening mutation and a treatment with good outcomes..
In either case IVC is imho a good buy it might even fall with the market so get more ..
I own


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## Dona Ferentes (25 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The ...way i see it, there is no half measure, either it is controlled and eliminated every where or we all get it at some stage
> 
> In either case IVC is imho a good buy it might even fall with the market so get more ..



Invocare held out for a month, with the first element of the business model looking good

Social gathering restrictions, unfortunately, will rob the company from holding any 'bells and whistles' full package funerals. They're trying for livestreaming (!) and webcasts, but it won't be as good.

Came out with an Announcement today saying they're impacted, with significant disruption to the trading environment


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## jbocker (1 April 2020)

Not a business that I would invest in. Don't feel comfortable 'funerals' being an ASX listed business, when most tout how family centred the funeral directors are. And they originally were, before being corralled together into listed businesses. Hey its just me, I think it a little yuk.
Yes they have a 'growing customer' base and I think they charge whatever they like, as mourning families are easy prey.  I mean the family are less likely to quibble, as they get sold up on costly little extras.
Well anyway they would praying for an end for this Caronavirus as it is too quickly 'eating into' their market potential $ as they get flooded with 'clients' (hopefully NOT) and with regulations of less than 10 allowed at funerals, families wont see the need to be upsold with bidding their loved ones farewell.


Dona Ferentes said:


> Social gathering restrictions, unfortunately, will rob the company from holding any 'bells and whistles' full package funerals. They're trying for livestreaming (!) and webcasts, but it won't be as good.



Livestreaming and webcasts,  More yeeewwww,  but hey this will be something to add on an ongoing basis post the virus - and crowd restrictions.


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## peter2 (15 June 2020)

Agree with your sentiment regarding this business. Crowd restrictions at funerals now lifted (4sqm rule).This news should allow them to reap a little more. However, corona virus lock downs have caused a significant reduction in flu hospital admissions and therefore lowered the number of deaths caused by flu. No doubt IVC will mention this in their next earnings report.

The long term chart shows a pretty strong support level at $10. As price is close to this level the RR seems pretty good here but IMO it's a longer term hold rather than a short term trade.


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## qldfrog (15 June 2020)

peter2 said:


> Agree with your sentiment regarding this business. Crowd restrictions at funerals now lifted (4sqm rule).This news should allow them to reap a little more. However, corona virus lock downs have caused a significant reduction in flu hospital admissions and therefore lowered the number of deaths caused by flu. No doubt IVC will mention this in their next earnings report.
> 
> The long term chart shows a pretty strong support level at $10. As price is close to this level the RR seems pretty good here but IMO it's a longer term hold rather than a short term trade.



FWIW, when the west was still living with the fairies, January, I exited a lot of my positions but put some into IVC;
it did not collapse true but I expected a jump up, not a so so result; ultimately exited with a loss,
whether you expect a second wave or not, do not into IVC based on your expectations of increase number of deaths.no reasons for this to work in the second round..just my opinion otherwise as @peter2 mentioned, as an investment, but not trading


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## peter2 (31 August 2020)

IVC has been in my reversal watch list for quite a while. It hasn't reversed yet. The funeral industry have taken quite a hit with the COVID pandemic. Lock downs have drastically reduced the number of deaths attributed to the flu. What's worse for the industry is the restrictions on number of attendees at the services. 

IVC had a recent capital raising at a price of 10.40. All these new buyers are now underwater and the restricted numbers at funerals remain. 





One day, but not yet.


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## peter2 (22 September 2020)

Are we there yet?  Restrictions are easing throughout Aust. I'm watching both IVC and PFP for signs of demand.


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## peter2 (7 October 2020)

Upward price movement has started. Price back at the recent spp price so those buyers will be feeling better. 
Initial target is up near old highs ~ 11.50.  Further COVID restrictions would not be good for this company. 
cf. PFP should soon move also but has much lower daily traded volume. Price movement may be jerky.


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## So_Cynical (8 October 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> The big fall in late 2018 was all about the low death rates from the flu, COVID-19 will eventually
> lead to a higher death rate, more funerals, this winter or the next *it's unstoppable, a certainty*.




Got that wrong, did not consider how the COVID restrictions would lead to a near total 100% drop in winter flu deaths, and never figured that the authorities across Australia would do so well in COVID suppression, 2020 is likely to be a record low year for respiratory deaths.


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 October 2020)

I am bearish on Funeral stocks.

I have been given an undertaking by some friends that my wishes to be buried in a cardboard box will be respected. Many like me will be keeping it simple. Much of the profit in funerals is on fluff, the flowers, the dutiful bearers, the limo, the casket and the reverend. 

A process that has purposely been made opaque, as were taxis, will be Uberised imo. 

For those interested, the Good Guys and Bunnings have the best boxes, around the back, and they are free. One then just needs to ensure that they qualify all the health requirements, staples, absorbents, linings, airtight, no worm killing chemicals etc. etc. and sturdy enough to prevent some dawg from digging one up. 

Then again I may be wrong. I'll be dead so it will not matter. 

Oh, and Beethoven's 9th with full orchestra and choir, and some homeless and indigent to be paid hopefully intoxicated, stoned and generally troublesome can make it up to a decently priced and enjoyable funeral. A good way to go.

gg


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## galumay (8 October 2020)

It never got to a price that looked really cheap with a sufficient margin of safety for me, with the dilution its probably a bit over what i would see the range of value as being. Its the same problem I have with all the businesses that were badly impacted, WEB, FLT, SYD, none of them ever got to a price that was compelling for me - other than maybe about 1 week in March! 

I think the issue for me is that so much was grossly overpriced before all of this, so they still look expensive now. Also the CR dilutions have an impact.

Thats alright though, I am doing very well at the moment with my portfolios, so its not like i am hunting for places to put capital.


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## finicky (8 October 2020)

Funeral homes are creepy and predatory. We should be allowed to bury (or cremate) our loved ones in the garden. These people are grubs.


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## Dona Ferentes (8 October 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am bearish on Funeral stocks.
> 
> I have been given an undertaking (ha) by some friends that my wishes to be buried in a cardboard box will be respected. Many like me will be keeping it simple. Much of the profit in funerals is on fluff, the flowers, the dutiful bearers, the limo, the casket and the reverend.
> 
> ...



I've always thought that this situation belongs to the _Do Something_ school of Family Disputes Under Pressure. No one questions anything, especially the extras. Market power (Like accessories at hospital discharge time).

So, PE 10 and hope the demographic trend doesn't shift.


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## SuperGlue (28 January 2021)

Posted this in Potential Breakout Alert 2 weeks ago.
Finally IVC made it’s move today.

Lets see whether it will go up higher long term, obviously depends on Dow Jones movement.


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## So_Cynical (28 January 2021)

IVC is getting some Gamestop type Aussie Reddit attention, good for a short squeeze.


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## Miner (28 January 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> IVC is getting some Gamestop type Aussie Reddit attention, good for a short squeeze.



Gamestop  meaning rise 2000 pc and then boom 
Holding


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## So_Cynical (28 January 2021)

Miner said:


> Gamestop  meaning rise 2000 pc and then boom
> Holdi



IVC - Gamestop get a mention in this AFR article.



> The Australian version of the now-notorious social media forum at the centre of the GameStop trading frenzy is cracking down on local attempts to organise a similar “market play”












						Aussie Reddit traders shut down ‘short squeeze’ plot
					

The Australian version of the Reddit forum at the centre of the GameStop trading frenzy is cracking down on local attempts to organise a similar ‘market play’.




					www.afr.com


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## SuperGlue (14 February 2021)

One  step forward 3 steps back. Real pain in the bum.

Report date from Morgans

Please DYOR


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## peter2 (22 February 2021)

*IVC* due to report in two days (24/2/21).  I have no bias on this one. It could go either way. The number of deaths from flu has fallen 99% (guess).  Funeral attendance has been capped for quite some time. The restrictions have been easing and will ease further now that the Covid vaccine is being distributed. Business outlook must improve. 

I was tempted to buy the dip as price hit the 50-62% buy zone. I'm not convinced about a quick bounce back in this sector. As a longer term investment, hell yeah. What's the saying, as we get older our survival rate gets closer to zero. (ZeroHedge).


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## Dona Ferentes (22 February 2021)

peter2 said:


> . What's the saying, as we get older our survival rate gets closer to zero. (ZeroHedge).



Heard a good one recently, _If you are going to cheat, cheat death_


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## Dona Ferentes (30 August 2021)

HY2021 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 
• _Statutory Revenue up 13% to $260.9 million  _
_• Operating Revenue up 13% to $257.3 million 
• Operating EBITDA up 31% to $63.6 million, with a return to positive operating leverage 
• Operating EBIT up 46% to $39.4 million 
• Reported Profit After Tax attributable to shareholders of InvoCare Limited of $44 million, compared to a Reported Loss After Tax of $18 million in the prior corresponding period (PCP) 
• Continued positive improvement in capital management metrics with leverage ratio of 1.1x, strong cashflow conversion of 102% and ROCE r12 of 10.4%, up 1.8 points on FY20  
• Operating EPS of 14.4 cents, up 57% 
• Interim fully franked dividend of 9.5 cents per share_

*Outlook*
_The emergence of the COVID Delta strain in June 2021 and the associated government response in Australia is expected to lead to a softening of the funeral services sector once again in the second half of 2021, but the extent and persistence remain uncertain. On this basis we _*continue to not provide earnings guidance for the full year.*

_Notwithstanding the short-term headwinds, the Group remains confident about the long-term potential of the business, with future growth supported by population and ageing trends in its markets. _


> Mr Chretien said_, “The persistent and sudden impacts of COVID restrictions on consumer confidence and our operating model, as evidenced in the past two months, will continue to restrict our businesses and people in realising the Group’s full potential, but our first half results demonstrate the strength of this organisation when conditions permit. I wish to thank our employees in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore for their exceptional commitment, care, and service to our client families, in what is a challenging and fast changing environment. Our focus will be on what we can control, and we remain extremely confident in our team’s capability and the Group’s potential in maintaining the momentum on this phase of our strategy of Raising the bar.” _


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## peter2 (4 November 2021)

No more lockdowns and no more restrictions at funerals. It's time for death to get it's due. 

The weekly chart (left) show the massive resistance at $12. Every time price got above, supply knocked it down. The recent corrective pattern has a shallow pull-back. Price is once more near $12. 

The daily chart shows the recent corrective pattern has been done with decreasing volume. I think *IVC* is good to go.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

peter2 said:


> No more lockdowns and no more restrictions at funerals. It's time for death to get it's due.




Invocare has rebounded to profitability in the 2021 financial year, driven by a robust recovery in its markets.

The company’s statutory revenue rose 11 per cent to $532.5 million while operating EBITDA was up 22 per cent to $125.5 million. Reported profit for the year was $80.2 million, rebounding from an $11.5 million loss a year ago.

Invocare said a recovery in the key value drivers of core operating earnings as well as a robust recovery in the mark-to-market valuation of prepaid funds under management (FUM) had driven the growth in profit.

_- do you want fries with that?_

11.5c FF dividend


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## sptrawler (28 February 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Invocare has rebounded to profitability in the 2021 financial year, driven by a robust recovery in its markets.
> 
> The company’s statutory revenue rose 11 per cent to $532.5 million while operating EBITDA was up 22 per cent to $125.5 million. Reported profit for the year was $80.2 million, rebounding from an $11.5 million loss a year ago.
> 
> ...



Looks like funerals are on the up, inside every cloud...






IDH


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## peter2 (25 May 2022)

Buying the dip in Invocare (*IVC*) as deaths are increasing due to letting the flu re-enter Aust. Also bought some *PFP* (Propel) to broaden my investment scythe.


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## qldfrog (25 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> Buying the dip in Invocare (*IVC*) as deaths are increasing due to letting the flu re-enter Aust. Also bought some *PFP* (Propel) to broaden my investment scythe.



I did same for covid and lost.
Like covid, flu just kill people who were going to die anyway,no material number for extra revenue,and less people attending funeral so reduced income...
Counterintuitive I know


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