# Three ducks system



## Stormin_Norman (20 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> Kam, hows the 3 ducks system going? Have you got some results yet? I've been trading it over my holidays and this week and will have two weeks worth of results soon that i'll post.
> 
> Maybe we can start a separate thread on that system?
> 
> ...




here's the seperate thread canoz.

are u trading this manually, or with an EA?

here is an EA: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1812319&postcount=243 i have also attached it to this thread. there are additional comments from the EA's author on that linked page, so it might be worth reading it.

i havent tested it; but will look to throw it on one of my demos soon. please can a couple of other's test it out too?


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## storchyman (20 January 2009)

When Googling the 3 ducks system this came up,

http://www.forexautomoney.com/?hop=lesser&gclid=CKSb5pzOnJgCFRk_awodHUCOnQ

good for a laugh, "you too can make 400,000,000.00 in one year for the low low subscription fee of $4.95"


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## Wysiwyg (20 January 2009)

Backtested the EUR/USD 15M from 14/07/2008 to 16/01/2009 with a 10k account and .... 


Don`t like the way it trades in and out when the market moves sideways and buys/sells after a price has run.(in too late) and 66 losing trades in a row is a problem.

Duck results first   and then another EA worth a look at below


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## white_goodman (20 January 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Backtested the EUR/USD 15M from 14/07/2008 to 16/01/2009 with a 10k account and ....
> 
> 
> Don`t like the way it trades in and out when the market moves sideways and buys/sells after a price has run.(in too late) and 66 losing trades in a row is a problem.
> ...




backtesting has its limitations, i jsut dont trust an EA where i dont understand it... unless i udnerstand it inside and out i will not use it...


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## Stormin_Norman (20 January 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Duck results first   and then another EA worth a look at below




start a separate thread for that EA so not to get confused


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## CanOz (20 January 2009)

I'm just trading this manually and obviously i won't get all the entries as i will be in bed. I will only trade inside the London/US hours too.

This gives me time during the day to watch some setups.

I'll be using a live account with 1% risked on each trade. Trading 8 pairs.

I'll try and post the account on Sunday of each week.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Stormin_Norman (20 January 2009)

i ran that EA through optimisation. 

did 81 passes at various stop loss and take profit levels.

none were profitable over the 4 year testing period.

i declare the mechanical trading of 3 ducks busted (it may work with trader discretion though).


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## white_goodman (20 January 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> i ran that EA through optimisation.
> 
> did 81 passes at various stop loss and take profit levels.
> 
> ...




Myth BUSTED


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## CanOz (20 January 2009)

white_goodman said:


> Myth BUSTED




If you read the trading plan for this then you can clearly see that it requires a large degree of discretion, in all of the initial stops, trailing stops and the targets. So even if you are Howard Bandy i would think that mechanical testing of this would be fruitless.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Cartman (20 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> If you read the trading plan for this then you can clearly see that it requires a large degree of discretion, in all of the initial stops, trailing stops and the targets. So even if you are Howard Bandy i would think that mechanical testing of this would be fruitless.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




CanOz,

been a while since i read about the Ducks ---- basically about lining up three different times frames with trends in sync yes?? --- 

that will work in theory in FX --- u just gotta lower  yr time frames due to the volatility factor ------ 

try it with 1 hr (maybe even 30 mins) as yr longest time frame ---- then 5 mins and 1 min as yr three that need to be in sync/trend ---- should work ok for short swings and scalps ----  

dunno if Norm can test that somehow to check the results??   pretty sure youd see a big improvement


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## CanOz (20 January 2009)

Cartman said:


> CanOz,
> 
> been a while since i read about the Ducks ---- basically about lining up three different times frames with trends in sync yes?? ---
> 
> ...




I've been using it pretty much stock standard. 60 MA

1.) ID the trend with a 4 hour (i'm using a 3hr chart...woooooops! :O)
2.) Confirm with a 1 hour
3.) enter on a break of the 5 minute throug the last PH/PL.

1% Risked on each trade. Move the inital stop ASAP if not going as planned. In ranges take more conservative profits.
In strong trend go for S&R targets.

So far, so good....profitable.....in the black for now!

Cheers,



CanOz


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## Stormin_Norman (20 January 2009)

its essentially a 3 EA cross trading system.


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## CanOz (21 January 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> its essentially a 3 EA cross trading system.




Call it whatever you like Norm, but what i have not heard it referred to as a cross system (usually inferring an ma cross). 

Step one and two identify the trend, in theory this is the edge, trade with the trend. 

Step 3 just gives you a step to get on the trend.

After this its all trade management in order to get your R/R up.

IF you do this, and you risk 2% or LESS, than you should be able to realise a positive expectancy.

You could make it more complicated, but at this stage its very simple and should be robust.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Stormin_Norman (21 January 2009)

Put all MA's on the 5min chart,.
1. 60 sma 5min chart
2. 720 sma (represents 60 sma on 1 hr chart)
3. 2880 sma (represents 60 sma on 4 hr chart).


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## Cartman (21 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> So far, so good....profitable.....in the black for now!
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> CanOz





all good then  ---- 

i thought the original Duck system used weekly/daily charts which made it hard to find trades unless the trend was long/strong ---

if its 4hr and down that should work ok ----- i guess when the MA's are flat and oscillating around consolidation areas, u could also just swing trade against the highs and lows of the range till a definite trend shows up as well --- good luck with it.


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## CanOz (21 January 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> Put all MA's on the 5min chart,.
> 1. 60 sma 5min chart
> 2. 720 sma (represents 60 sma on 1 hr chart)
> 3. 2880 sma (represents 60 sma on 4 hr chart).




You quant you.

Tell your EA to only buy during London and US hours too will you. 

Then, move your initial up if it doesn't go your way directly and the retest turns bad. 

then tell it to trail the stop using each new SR level.

Can you do that with MT4?

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Stormin_Norman (21 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> You quant you.
> 
> Tell your EA to only buy during London and US hours too will you.
> 
> ...




yeah. that's quite doable in mt4. almost any 'rules' you can state can be applied to mt4.

can i personally do it? no - its why ive teamed up with a programmer; so he can write the code 

im not having a go at the system, it seems logical - just the EA as given above is busted.


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## CanOz (21 January 2009)

Stormin_Norman said:


> yeah. that's quite doable in mt4. almost any 'rules' you can state can be applied to mt4.
> 
> can i personally do it? no - its why ive teamed up with a programmer; so he can write the code
> 
> im not having a go at the system, it seems logical - just the EA as given above is busted.




Well we'll see how some good ole live testing goes hey, at the moment everything is at the 60MA on the 5m.

I know with AmiBroker allot of that is possible but way beyond me. I would need to hire a programmer just to back test a simple version of it!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Stormin_Norman (21 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> I know with AmiBroker allot of that is possible but way beyond me. I would need to hire a programmer just to back test a simple version of it!




just befriend one 

any good C programmer will pick up mt4 in no time.


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## kam75 (21 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> I've been using it pretty much stock standard. 60 MA
> 
> 1.) ID the trend with a 4 hour (i'm using a 3hr chart...woooooops! :O)
> 2.) Confirm with a 1 hour
> ...




Hello CanOZ

I've been testing the 3-Duck System on MT4 for the past fortnight and after hours of watching the screen every night, I'm having no luck. Dunno why because te simplicity of the system really appeals to me.  Well, after waiting every night, I still have not been able to catch a single early move like described in the Captain Currency ebook.  Best I've got is a few quick pips on trades that lasted 5 or 10 minutes but this was followed by more losses so that after about 8 trades, I've turned the $5,000 demo account to $3,800.

Tell me, when you guys find the 4hr trend is up, confirm that 1hr is up, how long do you wait and watch the screen for a crossover of moving average on the 5 min chart?  The waiting drives me crazy.  Is that how you trade?
cheers


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## CanOz (21 January 2009)

kam75 said:


> Hello CanOZ
> 
> I've been testing the 3-Duck System on MT4 for the past fortnight and after hours of watching the screen every night, I'm having no luck. Dunno why because te simplicity of the system really appeals to me.  Well, after waiting every night, I still have not been able to catch a single early move like described in the Captain Currency ebook.  Best I've got is a few quick pips on trades that lasted 5 or 10 minutes but this was followed by more losses so that after about 8 trades, I've turned the $5,000 demo account to $3,800.
> 
> ...




I don't only wait for a cross over, but instead postion a limit order to buy on a break of a pivot high or low, providing that the price is in the proper location in regards to the ma on the 5 minute. Sometimes you can get them setup just after the price crosses the ma, but thats been rare for me. Last night there were heaps of setups and i didn't take them....don't ask me why. i guess i thought i would wake up later and place the trades, but alas, i slept thorugh only to wake up and see that the equity markets collapsed and with it many of the pairs.

Oh, btw, plenty of setups starting appear again after this morning retracments. How low can they go though??? So oversold already!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (21 January 2009)

This is an example of the setup that i'm waiting for Kam.

Green = Entry
Red = Stop

Cheers,


CanOz


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## kam75 (22 January 2009)

Thanks CanOZ!  I finally got my first few runs last night using the 3 Duck System!!  The 4 hour and 1 hour ducks were aligned short on EURUSD and GBPUSD and long on USDCHF.  I waited until the prices crossed and closed below the 60 SMA on their 5 minute charts. Got 30 PIPS on EURUSD, 126 PIPS on GBPUSD, and 15 on USDCHF.  Am I on the right track?

By the way, MT4 qouted enormous margin, like 2500% on my trades last night.  Is this for real when you trading with your broker CanOZ?  Otherwise, how do you know how your trades will be margined before you take them?


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## Wysiwyg (24 January 2009)

Ducks up 900 virtual dollars so far on the MT4 demonstration account over the last five days of intermittent EA running.Maybe there is some potential for discretionary trades off the demo  for when the obvious bad entry takes place .


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

Good to see a few having some luck with the ducks...he he

Kam i think what you've done looks fine. 

I try and move my stop to BE and quick often i get caught out. I have to learn to give the trade some time. 

Overall i'm still up and will post a weekly record on Sunday. 

Trends are all a changing now though.

Hope you can trade that EA Live Wyz.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## lesm (24 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> Good to see a few having some luck with the ducks...he he
> 
> Kam i think what you've done looks fine.
> 
> ...



Can,

USD/CHF would have been a reasonable 3 Duck play tonight.:

Not using the approach, but following the pair with a different method and just took a quick look from a 3 Duck perspective after seeing your post.

Went through the R1 daily pivot at 6:35pm AEST and yesterday's daily high at 6:40pm AEST.

Will be interested in the results and hope you have a positive outcome with the method.

Cheers.


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

Yeah that would have been a smashing trade! 200 odd pips!

Completely missed it!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## lesm (24 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> Yeah that would have been a smashing trade! 200 odd pips!
> 
> Completely missed it!
> 
> ...




That happens, you can't get them all.

The times in the previous post should have been AEDST not AEST.

With regard to your previous comment on moving stops to BE, it's a matter of finding the balance between protecting your position and giving the trade room to move. Not always easy.

Not aware of how wide your stops are, but you may want to consider moving it closer to breakeven, as a first step, rather than all the way to breakeven to reduce your initial exposure. Try playing around with it on a SIM and see if that helps.

Dependent on the level of volatility this may still get you stopped out, albeit with a lesser loss.

There is a natural tendency to try and move the stop to breakeven as quickly as possible, but you are aware of the downside of that. There is always the risk of a sudden reversal, but this happens, again it is about balance as well as confidence in your trading approach.

Cheers.


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

In the case of this EUR duck trade, i set it and went to bed!

I normally sneak up the stop to BE, not all in one move. 

Missed out on several other good trades tonight but happy to bag this one to finish the week in healthy profit!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

Correction: The last EUR trade was not technically a "duck" trade as the longer time frame was not set. This was a break trade i had setup before bed.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## BentRod (24 January 2009)

Fantastic trade Cannie.....you captured almost the entire range.

WD.


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

BentRod said:


> Fantastic trade Cannie.....you captured almost the entire range.
> 
> WD.




Yeah but it was a counter trend trade so i didn't put on any others, and almost all of the pairs went for a ride.

Never under estimate the role of luck in trading!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

Week 1 of the planned four weeks of live trading on the three ducks system has yielded a tiny profit and some interesting stats:

Number of Trades taken: 17
Winners: 5
Losers: 12
Average Win: 151.86
Average Loss: -34.96
Biggest Win: 195.45
Biggest Loss: 91.96

Starting Balance: 8438.45 AUD
Ending Balance:   8593.25 AUD

Profit for the week 154.80

Should i include anything else here?

Got chopped around a bit at times this week and missed some good moves while out on errands. I tend to sneak my stop up to BE a bit early at times and i think i have missed some good moves in the Asian sessions. I'll still try and trade only the European and US sessions but I'll keep an eye out for good moves during the local sessions too.

Cheers,



CanOz


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## lesm (24 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> Week 1 of the planned four weeks of live trading on the three ducks system has yielded a tiny profit and some interesting stats:
> 
> Number of Trades taken: 17
> Winners: 5
> ...




Can,

That's plenty of information. Assume your using mini's.

Besides some movements during the day, from 3:00pm AEDST on through to the London open can give some good moves at times.

Will be interesting to see your results after four weeks.

Cheers.


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

lesm said:


> Assume your using mini's.




Yes, that's one reason i moved to Oanda for FX, now i can position size more accurately...ie. i calculate the size using fixed fractional positioning. 

I don't get too fussy over a few bucks, i use 1-1.25% of the account on each trade.

CanOz


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## lesm (24 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> Yes, that's one reason i moved to Oanda for FX, now i can position size more accurately...ie. i calculate the size using fixed fractional positioning.
> 
> I don't get too fussy over a few bucks, i use 1-1.25% of the account on each trade.
> 
> CanOz




Mini's are a good way to try a system out and Oanda is a lot more flexible with its sizing than a number of other brokers.

Just a quick general question, have you considered or tested using volatility based stops when the market is more volatile, as we have seen over the last few months?

Cheers.


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## CanOz (24 January 2009)

lesm said:


> Just a quick general question, have you considered or tested using volatility based stops when the market is more volatile, as we have seen over the last few months?
> 
> Cheers.




No i have not Lesm, but open to ideas for sure, you mean like an ATR?

I do occasionally use Parabolic SAR on the 1 hour as a trailing stop, but i don't get too close to the action, only the last two indicators.

CanOz


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## lesm (25 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> No i have not Lesm, but open to ideas for sure, you mean like an ATR?
> 
> I do occasionally use Parabolic SAR on the 1 hour as a trailing stop, but i don't get too close to the action, only the last two indicators.
> 
> CanOz




Can,

That's one approach. I have been playing around with an idea similar to Bulkowski's average high low volatility measure.

Les.


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## CanOz (25 January 2009)

For those interested here is TB's 

http://thepatternsite.com/stops.html

CanOz


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## lesm (26 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> For those interested here is TB's
> 
> http://thepatternsite.com/stops.html
> 
> CanOz




Can,

Attached are two charts showing historic volatilty calculations for a 5 min and 30 min chart on aud/usd. The standard ATR indicator provided via NT is included for reference.

Bulowski's work published on his site, uses daily calculations to calculate the monthly average and multiplier of 2 to obtain the average volatility.

This indicator works across multiple time frames and you select the number of preceding candles to use in the calculation. Thanks should go to the original author, as it saved a lot of leg work. The original work was developed using the daily chart.

Will let you go back to discussing the 3 ducks.

Cheers.


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## CanOz (26 January 2009)

Thanks for the comparison Lesm!

I'll have a play on AB with the stops on the charts.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (26 January 2009)

Well and truly into the loony with the second lot in profit at this stage. We've got a target of 1.209 ish.

Go Oil.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (27 January 2009)

Stopped out of the CAD trade tonight, lots of volatility and probably cranked the stop down too close.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## kam75 (29 January 2009)

*Three ducks System and Go Markets MT4*

Continuing to test this system on the Go Markets MT4 live platform in demo mode during London/US session on the 4 major pairs.  Haven't seen the ducks in line again for some days now.

CanOz, how many times would you see the ducks lined up on average in a week?  I'm sticking to the 4 majors at the time but maybe I should be looking at a few more? Dunno.  Based on what I've seen so far, it looks like this system does work but one really needs the patience to wait for the perfect setups. 

There's a lot of questions that need to be answered by Go Markets before I'll fund my account with them though.

1. Their experience as a broker, years? 
2. What firm they're attached to?  Who owns them? How many clients?
3. How well funded? Working capital?
4. Can they guarrantee the integrity of their data source - ie, if the data screws up or they have other technical problems that lead to client losing money, who covers client's losses?
5. Execution & spreads - do they guarrantee the spreads published on their website?  Do they ever widen spreads? On what pairs? When?
6. Re-quotes?
7. Legal obligations to client?  Ie, if client cleans up big, will they pay up?
Et cetera...


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## pilbara (29 January 2009)

*Re: Three ducks System and Go Markets MT4*



kam75 said:


> how many times would you see the ducks lined up on average in a week?



so many traders use indicators based on 2 moving averages crossing, so I think the moves will have happened before 3 moving averages have a chance to line up.  I think this method would require anticipation from the shorter time scale to the larger.


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## CanOz (29 January 2009)

*Re: Three ducks System and Go Markets MT4*



kam75 said:


> Continuing to test this system on the Go Markets MT4 live platform in demo mode during London/US session on the 4 major pairs.  Haven't seen the ducks in line again for some days now.
> 
> CanOz, how many times would you see the ducks lined up on average in a week?  I'm sticking to the 4 majors at the time but maybe I should be looking at a few more? Dunno.  Based on what I've seen so far, it looks like this system does work but one really needs the patience to wait for the perfect setups.




Saw heaps of setups on Monday and Tuesday and got absolutely blended by taking positions way to close to the action. I have no idea what possessed me to trade so close to the noise. 

Anyway, since i zoomed out and took my stops near hourly support i have not been shaken out so easily but still have not had a winning trade in days and days.

Can't wait to put in the score sheet.

There are currently setups pending on the USD/JPY, and other that need to cross back over on the 5 minute. I'll persevere, I'm determined to trade this for a month. I think the challenge will be now be pulling myself out of DD.

Setups: watch cable as well, its just rocket out of 3 duck range on the housing ann.

CanOz


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## CanOz (31 January 2009)

Hopefully i will be able to report last weeks trade stats tomorrow night. They will not be pretty and i have to say that its the longest losing streak i have persevered with. 

From Monday and for the remainder of the test i will trade on the simulator only. I have reached my pain tolerance level and i see no sense in carrying on with a live account. this is a frustrating animal FX, and one way or another i'll learn to profit from it eventually.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## BentRod (1 February 2009)

> They will not be pretty and i have to say that its the longest losing streak i have persevered with.




Maybe risk less per trade??(0.5 or 0.25)

From my limited experience, the optimum amount risked per trade is directly related to Win Percentage(unless you can handle the Drawdown).


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## kam75 (1 February 2009)

CanOz said:


> Hopefully i will be able to report last weeks trade stats tomorrow night. They will not be pretty and i have to say that its the longest losing streak i have persevered with.
> 
> From Monday and for the remainder of the test i will trade on the simulator only. I have reached my pain tolerance level and i see no sense in carrying on with a live account. this is a frustrating animal FX, and one way or another i'll learn to profit from it eventually.
> 
> ...




CanOz, I've been watching and waiting the whole week and its been very choppy and dissapointing indeed.  Finally got a couple of trades on friday but they did not produce trends.  How much time do you think one needs to devote to this system every night?  I've been doing monday through friday and usually begin with watching the London around 1900 to see if there are any potential setups.  I will watch the market on and off till about 0200.
I'm keen to see your results.  Are you going to stick with this system? Here's the two trades that did work out.  I have given these profits and more back on those that did not.












cheers


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## Cartman (1 February 2009)

Cartman said:


> that will work in theory in FX --- u just gotta *lower  yr time frames due to the volatility* factor ------
> 
> try it with 1 hr (maybe even 30 mins) as yr longest time frame ---- then 5 mins and 1 min as yr three that need to be in sync/trend ---- should work ok for short swings and scalps ----






pilbara said:


> so many traders use indicators based on 2 moving averages crossing, so I think the moves will have happened before 3 moving averages have a chance to line up.  *I think this method would require anticipation from the shorter time scale to the larger*.





Pilbara and i agree on this one -----

imo, unless u r catching the reversal at the bottom or top of a long term cycle, u have to trade FX on shorter time frames or get cut to bitz



BentRod said:


> Maybe risk less per trade??(0.5 or 0.25)
> 
> From my limited experience, the optimum amount risked per trade is *directly related to Win Percentage*(unless you can handle the Drawdown).





i believe yr limited experience is correct


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## CanOz (2 February 2009)

Should have the results tonight, my printer ran out of black so i'll have to print out the history at work.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## kam75 (9 February 2009)

CanOz said:


> Well and truly into the loony with the second lot in profit at this stage. We've got a target of 1.209 ish.
> 
> Go Oil.
> 
> ...




CanOz, what is that dotted line indicator you have on the charts that follows the trends of the price.  I've given up on the 3 Ducks system and developing my own instead.
cheers
Kam


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## BentRod (9 February 2009)

Kam....Looks like parabolic Sar.

Try that on your charts.



> I've given up on the 3 Ducks system and developing my own instead.
> cheers




Hurray!!


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## kam75 (9 February 2009)

Oh I see it.  Looks very interesting.  I'll have to do some reading on how to use it.  Do any of you guys find it particularly useful?


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## BentRod (9 February 2009)

Personally I don't use any indicators but whatever works for the individual is the important thing.

Regarding parabolic Sar(if that's what the above is)it is used as a trailing stop for exits as far as I know.

EDIT:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/042202.asp


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## CanOz (15 February 2009)

Yes its SAR. I had been trying it on the three ducks system, more just observation really. On 1 hour it looks like a reasonable exit but it can take out early. One exit that i've been using a bit lately is the diamonds on TG, get 2 and get out. Anyone else us TradeGuider for FX? One particular trader i know reckons you could almost trade off the diamonds alone.

Been busy testing another system on Amibroker, looks promising. The volatility still whipping things around though, can we have some trends please?

Going to do more testing with systems now. Lesm has me hooked.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## kam75 (18 February 2009)

BentRod said:


> Personally I don't use any indicators but whatever works for the individual is the important thing. QUOTE]
> 
> BentRod, what method do you use then if no indicators to guide you?
> 
> I've been trading chart patterns on the 4 majors for the past few weeks.  Chart patterns work well for me when I trade them in the stock market, so, I thought they would work just as well in Forex.  Sometimes they do, but often they don't.


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## BentRod (18 February 2009)

Kam,

I trade with a discretionary approach but use chart patterns,trendlines,ranges,seasonality and sentiment.


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## skinner36 (13 May 2014)

Hi,

I have seen a few references to the 3 Ducks strategy on the Internet and I was wondering if anyone is using it. 

Just out of interest I decided to do some test trades with it and see if it is really profitable.
I will keep the thread updated with my results.

Cheers,

John


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## Jason73 (15 May 2014)

I think there is a distinct 3 ducks system that is marketed online. I think it is the same guy who did the London Forex Open trading system? I've used that (its set time) and it worked out well.


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## noirua (3 June 2021)

Two ducks and a goose
Seriously now folks: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/the-3-ducks-trading-system-200802200000


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## tech/a (3 June 2021)

Only one duck I think 
2nd duck is trade management 
3rd duck is exit.


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