# ALG - Ardent Leisure Group



## Fool (18 December 2009)

Huge amount of volume traded today, looks like record volume high! Also approaching potential new 52 week high.

See today announcement -

Estimated Distribution: 6.5 cents per stapled security
Record Date: 31 December 2009 (5:00 pm)
Securities Trade Ex Distribution: 23 December 2009
Payment Date: 25 February 2010 (on or about)

Dividend Yield of 8.9% for the year.

DYOR
I hold AAD


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## herzy (24 April 2012)

Anyone else interested in AAD?


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## tinhat (24 April 2012)

herzy said:


> Anyone else interested in AAD?




I had it on my watch list last year. Waiting for a turn around. Took my eyes off it only to have a look a week or two ago and see that it is up to around 1.24

I think it is a good yield if you can't use franking credits. Otherwise TLS and ASZ look like better deals with franking credits.


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## trillionaire#1 (27 April 2012)

A relative holds this in their portfolio for the dividend,happy with its steady performance by all accounts.
As Tinhat says above others look more attractive with franking credits.


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## Gringotts Bank (6 May 2012)

I'm going to buy this tomorrow, because I think the price will go upwards.  I'd like to sell it at $1.42 (+10%).


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## herzy (1 August 2012)

I'm not a trader, but I have a feeling that the last few months would be very interesting from a trader's perspective. If anybody had a look, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.


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## burglar (1 August 2012)

herzy said:


> I'm not a trader, but I have a feeling that the last few months would be very interesting from a trader's perspective. If anybody had a look, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.




I would say it is range bound and trending ever so slightly upwards!

Not a trader, nor do I hold. 
Just interested in reading charts, that's all.


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## herzy (13 September 2012)

burglar said:


> I would say it is range bound and trending ever so slightly upwards!
> 
> Not a trader, nor do I hold.
> Just interested in reading charts, that's all.




Thanks for your insights. I sold a portion of my holdings at mid 1 30s, and rebought at mid 1 20s, which is always nice. 

Not sure if there are any holders here, but AAD announced today a large acquisition (of gyms) today - to be funded by a SPP. Just wondering if people will participate? It'll be my first SPP, and I'm wondering - if there's any reason not to sell all my holdings now, and then re-buy under the SPP at a discount?

Also just wondering what people think of the acquisition generally. Motives seem good, orientated towards earnings potential and franking etc etc., but seems a lot to pay for 10 gyms ($60.9 million).


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## waimate01 (13 September 2012)

The SPP is capped at $15k per investor, and $20m overall. So if you have more than $15k skin in the game, you'd be unable to apply for the same amount under the SPP. But moreover, the overall cap means that if it's over-subscribed (ie, looks like a good thing), then you'll only receive a portion or what you applied for. Eg, you apply for $5k and end up with $1.5k worth and a refund cheque for $3.5k.

Does the acquisition make sense? Dunno, seems to I guess. Are they paying too much? 4.7 times next year EBIT (including some wishful thinking) which then re-rates to 10.3, so in a reasonable world the $60m purchase will add $130m to AAD's marketcap. But in the real world, acquisitions tend to destroy shareholder value.

I'll probably keep my AAD and decline the SPP unless the share price is comfortably above $1.28 on Oct 15th.


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## herzy (13 September 2012)

It's a 2% discount to the average of the previous 5 days OR 1.28, whichever is lower - that may change your thoughts. I'm not at the point where I can subscribe to $15 k worth! I guess I'll see how I go..


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## JTLP (24 February 2013)

Anybody watching this?

Reading the HY report seemed pretty positive - all except the Marina business and the Bowling businesses...

They seem fairly confident of turning this around but time will well.

I also wonder if the US expansion will hold out. It's positive for now but if we get another timebomb event then I think the whole discretionary spending could be in the pits.


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## herzy (25 February 2013)

JTLP said:


> Anybody watching this?
> 
> Reading the HY report seemed pretty positive - all except the Marina business and the Bowling businesses...
> 
> ...




I have held for about a year, bought at mid $1.20s - very broadly, US (Texas) looks good, they're looking at expanding into other states. When AUD drops, this will generate huge increase in profits. Marinas contribute very little to overal AAD operations. Gyms are profitable, and they seem to be increasing these steadily. IMO if AUD drops, or weather improves (or both), tourism to Qld will increase, which will also cause increase in profits. 2012 was a particularly rainy season I believe. Overall a fairly safe investment with a great yield, and low p/e. I will accumulate on any drops.


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## piggybank (21 December 2013)

Latest Presentation - http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AAD&E=ASX&N=766580


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## tinhat (17 February 2014)

Excellent HY results out.

Revenue up 14%
EPS up 3.5%
DPS up 3%

All businesses with the exception of Marinas putting in solid earnings growth with the US Main Event business currently expanding into six new locations. I don't know what the franking credit is going to be for the next dividend but the last one was only 10% franked. The stock seems fully priced at the moment IMHO, but this is a great business.


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## pavilion103 (24 February 2014)

I've got a pending on this one if it hits a new high. I like the look of it.
Purely technical based for me.


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## coolcup (24 February 2014)

It is quite amazing how much earnings growth this company has put on despite the terrible conditions for Australian tourism in recent years. It just makes you think just how the company could perform as conditions for tourism become more favourable, particularly with the lower Australian dollar.


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## pavilion103 (24 February 2014)

I posted my chart on this one in the potential breakout thread for those who are interested.


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## tinhat (24 February 2014)

I thought hard about buying this stock when it was at $1 a few years ago post-GFC. Only bought in August last year . If they can keep up the performance of their Main Event business in the USA as they roll out into new locations on that basis alone this company will see good earnings growth in the near future. Has anyone else looked into this company and the Main Event business in more detail? Do they generally lease or own the real estate?


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## pavilion103 (4 March 2014)

I've got this one in the stock tipping comp. 

It's looking to breakout. 

I like this setup.


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## pavilion103 (4 March 2014)

And it happens to break this arvo. 2,38 close.


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## pavilion103 (5 March 2014)

Updated chart


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## piggybank (11 March 2014)

*Daily P&F Update:-*

​


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## tinhat (30 April 2014)

"Let your profits run" as they say in the classics.

I set a rising sell conditional order a while ago to take profits on this stock and it got triggered today but my sell order has not executed. I'm thinking there might be a few more cents to squeeze out of this stock yet, but on a fundamental value basis, and from looking at the chart I think the price may have run up a bit hard lately. PE 27 but with a high consensus forecast earnings growth projected over the next two years. The problem is I have sold out of stocks only to regret not staying in. The yield is attractive at the price I paid but taking profit is very tempting right now.

Consensus forecast is for earnings growth to continue and I like this company, management's track record and the industry it operates in.

Looking at the charts, there are TAs here that might consider the break-out today as an entry signal rather than a sell signal?


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## herzy (5 May 2014)

Was today's price action buy the rumour sell the fact? I thought the results were pretty good... something I'm missing?

Agreed it's overvalued tinhat, but it's got strong growth and seems to be solidly making good acquisitions, so will pay off long-term. Low debt, good dividend... Love the company and the stock, and feel the price is justified.


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## tinhat (5 May 2014)

All out at average of $2.66 net of brokerage. I was tossing up whether to leave my profits in the stock as free carry but the remainder of my sell order went through in the pre-open this morning.

Am I out too early? It is overpriced and there are other opportunities. I agree it is a good company that is pursuing growth with a strong balance sheet and reasonable levels of gearing. I will definitely look for an opportunity to re-enter as I see this stock as a good income stock with good growth prospects.


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## tinhat (27 August 2014)

Absolutely kicking myself over this one. Two opportunities to re-enter during late May and the beginning of this month. I told myself in July I would re-enter if price got to $2.50 but I got distracted and kaboom - off she goes.


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## herzy (16 September 2014)

Scaled back to 12% of holding lol. It's had a great run up the last few months. Well actually the last few years. P/e, outlook and yield are all still good. Any alternative views?


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## Nortorious (23 October 2014)

A bit quiet on this thread.

I had a conditional buy order to enter after it breached $3.28 yesterday. Price jumped above my limit of $3.29 immediately but the order stayed in the market and it got filled today. 

My risk on this position sees it at around 14% to see if it continues upwards. Stop loss will be adjusted when it can to reduce the risk as we go but overall indicators look ok at this stage.

Let the supply and demand principles work their magic and remain patient...


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## herzy (24 October 2014)

Nortorious said:


> A bit quiet on this thread.
> 
> I had a conditional buy order to enter after it breached $3.28 yesterday. Price jumped above my limit of $3.29 immediately but the order stayed in the market and it got filled today.
> 
> ...




I love this stock - 5 year, 1 year, 6 month charts are all good (not that I'm much of charter - just pointing out that the stock keeps going up!). 

Solid growth prospects, good ROE, low debt, high dividend... Although it's getting slightly pricey, it's still not ridiculous. Lower US$ should also help profits. 

Could you be more specific? What price are you hoping to reach? How do you determine your stops?


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## Nortorious (24 October 2014)

First things first, don't ever love a stock!! haha. I learnt that one the hard way a few years back when I was a little less wise...

A stock is only pricey if no one wants to buy it anymore (i.e. more sellers than buyers = stock plateaus and then starts to turnover and head south). I don't buy into other indicators but I run a pretty simple strategy.

So far as the price I'm hoping it will reach, I'd like it to hit anything above $4 but have no indicators or projections saying that is where it is heading. I merely ride the trend and move my stop loss when I can to lock down profit should the tide turn.

To determine my entry stops, I look at the price action from the past. My entries are based on the stock coming out of a trading range. Two types of entries, a continuation entry (which this stock is) and an initial breakout entry (more lucrative as it captures moves after accumulation at lower levels and starts the uptrends). 

My stop in this situation considers the trading range and the low of that range. Wherever the lowest bar is on that range (usually a down bar), I look at the 30 week weighted moving average below that point. The stop loss will go just below where the 30 wwma price and if near round numbers, a little bit lower. This provides plenty of scope for movement but also leaves risk a little too high (I'm still refining stop loss placement as I experience more and more trades). A tighter stop would be to put the stop loss just below the trading range low. This is probably a more common method...

Hope that helps and makes sense. More of an art than a science.

Good to see a nice close of $3.39 on AAD today, always good when a stock moves in your favour from the initial point of entry.


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## herzy (24 October 2014)

Nortorious said:


> First things first, don't ever love a stock!! haha. I learnt that one the hard way a few years back when I was a little less wise...
> 
> A stock is only pricey if no one wants to buy it anymore (i.e. more sellers than buyers = stock plateaus and then starts to turnover and head south). I don't buy into other indicators but I run a pretty simple strategy.
> 
> ...




Thanks Nortorious, it definitely made sense. 

You may have noticed that we place very different emphasis on how we make our investment/trade decisions. In that sense, it makes a little bit more sense for me to be in love with a stock than you. I would fall out of love with a stock if its story changed (bad acquisitions, slow down in growth, etc) rather than short term price fluctuations. That said, appreciate the words of warning - definitely good to bear in mind.


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## Nortorious (27 October 2014)

Hi Herzy,

I agree our methods are different but I assume we both have the same goal = make money.

Anyhow, the stock has opened well again today so will continue to track its movement. If I see anything alarming Ã will let you know but everything seems to be on track thus far.

Here's to some favourable profit percentages coming from this one.


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## Nortorious (25 November 2014)

Nortorious said:


> Hi Herzy,
> 
> I agree our methods are different but I assume we both have the same goal = make money.
> 
> ...




I got knocked out of this through my stock going back a few sessions. Apologies for not updating this thread... Looks like it may have been a bit premature anyway and I may get back in if it moves back North with some fuel behind it. It could go the other way as well and fall back through the recent short term low that hit me out of my position...


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## tinhat (6 May 2015)

Back in today. The market liked the update even though there are still some business units that are underperforming. Gyms are one of those industries that you wonder why anyone would want to be in. It's really the main event business that is growing strongly through venue expansion and decent performance of existing venues. The leisure industry requires constant re-investment in assets. I think AAD overshot both sides recently. I think its reasonable value at this price but not a screaming bargain. It might still take the instos some time to warm to the new CEO as she will need to prove herself being a woman (oowee!).


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## CanOz (26 October 2015)

Good Ole Classic Chart pattern here....2.80 looks like it was held on the offer a few times...


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## herzy (31 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Good Ole Classic Chart pattern here....2.80 looks like it was held on the offer a few times...




Implying what?


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## Boggo (31 October 2015)

Holding again in my SMSF.
Last run was a good one, same again would be nice 

Weekly chart - click to expand.


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## tinhat (5 November 2015)

Is today a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? The headline September Quarter results seem impressive. The reported EBITA for the quarter, is up 28.2% from the prior corresponding period and I calculate that, annualised, this represents a 32% increase on last financial year's EBITA. Not a bad dividend yield either (although only partially franked at 24.4%).

Yet the share price is currently down 12% today. Oh well, I guess stocks don't go up in a straight line.


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## herzy (5 November 2015)

tinhat said:


> Is today a case of *buy the rumour, sell the fact*? The headline September Quarter results seem impressive. The reported EBITA for the quarter, is up 28.2% from the prior corresponding period and I calculate that, annualised, this represents a 32% increase on last financial year's EBITA. Not a bad dividend yield either (although only partially franked at 24.4%).
> 
> Yet the share price is currently down 12%*- now 15% - *today. Oh well, I guess stocks don't go up in a straight line.




That's what I assumed. Makes very little sense to me, personally. Theme park division seems to be incredible, AUD weaker just means all profits from there are even higher. 

Perhaps it's a whole bunch of stop losses being triggered by traders who entered due to the recent positive price action (including, for example, Boggo above). 

Either way, a chance to top up. I put the forward p/e at about 8.5, not including any growth from Main Event etc. Plus a good dividend.


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## Boggo (6 November 2015)

herzy said:


> ....
> Perhaps it's a whole bunch of stop losses being triggered by traders who entered due to the recent positive price action (including, for example, *Boggo* above).




Not guilty, it closed above the stop so still holding.

It's recovering today too.


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## herzy (9 November 2015)

Boggo said:


> Not guilty, it closed above the stop so still holding.
> 
> It's recovering today too.




Just! 

Good luck in your trade.


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## tinhat (9 November 2015)

This could be something to do with the recent drop in share price:

Aqua park or prison? The great divide over Sea World's captive dolphins

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/...-worlds-captive-dolphins-20151022-gkfl7o.html


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## Boggo (9 November 2015)

herzy said:


> Just!
> 
> Good luck in your trade.




Thanks herzy. Tough market at the moment.


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## herzy (10 November 2015)

tinhat said:


> This could be something to do with the recent drop in share price:
> 
> Aqua park or prison? The great divide over Sea World's captive dolphins
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/...-worlds-captive-dolphins-20151022-gkfl7o.html




Seems like a bit of a stretch to me.



Boggo said:


> Thanks herzy. Tough market at the moment.




It is, I'm struggling.


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## peter2 (18 November 2015)

I'm thinking that there is probably a profitable edge in trading some of these atypical (above average) price spikes that form after news.

Take AAD for an example, huge fall in price, but a few FA people comment that the reported results don't seem to be that bad. 

If they're right (key assumption), then the price has been oversold, demand should force the price up once the panic sellers are done. 

This strategy will require a unique skillset; 
(i)  the ability to correctly analyse a report on the day it's released (disappointment due to random/temporary event or part of bigger problem)
(ii) the ability to frame a profitable risk:reward setup
(iii) appropriate position sizing for the number of opportunites (may not be many)

This concept of trading a personal opinion of the news reminds me of the great thread done by skc many moons ago.


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## skc (18 November 2015)

peter2 said:


> I'm thinking that there is probably a profitable edge in trading some of these atypical (above average) price spikes that form after news.
> 
> Take AAD for an example, huge fall in price, but a few FA people comment that the reported results don't seem to be that bad.
> 
> ...




That's a major part of my trading these days. Tradings reports, news, AGM updates etc. 
Some examples of stocks that I traded in the past few days:
- QBE... weak 3rd quarter update in presentation. Price opened pretty flat. Low risk short.
- AGI... weak AGM update. Price open flat. Easy short.
- IPL ... Good news in cost saving on new gas deal. Price open flat. No brainer buy.

Yes one needs the ability to read the report quickly and correctly... and one also need to have the resources / research available to compare the news to expectations. More importantly, you need a market that hasn't quite catch on - as illustrated by the "price open flat" comment. If QBE gapped down 3%, then you got to be doubly sure about your interpretation, and you have got much worse R:R.

Some examples where the trade didn't quite work out.
- ORI... weak outlook statement. Price open some what flat. I went short but was quickly stopped out.
- GMG... update "reaffirm" outlook. Price open flat. I didn't think it would make a difference but it ran 4%.
- SGF... great acquisition. Price gapped up 15%. I didn't want to chase the gap and looked for some reversal. Turned out the open was the low of the day.

Sometimes you can also combine TA with news. Take AST for example... report out and it was a great beat on expectations. The chart before the news showed shallow retracement after a good run. A stop buy @ say $1.45 would still give you good profits, albeit not as good an R:R if you bought the open.



One other thing to remember is that these stocks are at bigger end of the market. So while the 4% move isn't that large, the actual amount of profit is still very healthy with a large position size.

Then you keep it on your watch list for day 2 follow through or reversals.


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## luvbhatnagar (23 November 2015)

Does anyone know what's happening with Ardent Leisure?  They seem to be on a roller coaster since their results.  Down over 10% in the last 3 days with no real news.






skc said:


> That's a major part of my trading these days. Tradings reports, news, AGM updates etc.
> Some examples of stocks that I traded in the past few days:
> - QBE... weak 3rd quarter update in presentation. Price opened pretty flat. Low risk short.
> - AGI... weak AGM update. Price open flat. Easy short.
> ...


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## tinhat (22 March 2016)

The market has reacted well to the announcement that Ardent are looking to offload the d'Abora marinas. Although only a small segment of the overall portfolio, they are the most profitable business. It seems a bit sad to be selling off a cash cow to free up capital when in my opinion it is the gym/heath club business they should be running away from.


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## levin123 (26 October 2016)

Any thoughts on the tragedy and how it will impact valuation?

I note that their theme parks (which includes WhiteWater world and Skypoint) only represent approx 27% of EBIT and 15% of revenue. There are more severe risks at play though of course than a downturn in themepark attendance including total lose of license and massive fine from health and safety regulators. 

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts today, but strong support at $2.


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## greggles (26 October 2016)

This is the worst theme park tragedy in Australia's history and it happened at the worst possible time, in the lead up to the Christmas school holidays. It's impossible to know how significant the loss of public confidence in theme parks will be as a result of this tragic incident, but it will definitely be felt on the Gold Coast this summer.

The market depth looks bad for AAD today. It looks to be a case of stand back and get out of the way and see where the bottom is.


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## Knobby22 (26 October 2016)

Feel for the kids, horrible.

Owned these a year and a half ago and sold, can't remember why now.

Risk is ever present in the share market. Look at BHP also.  Lucks been with me lately.


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## McLovin (26 October 2016)

Awful stuff. Just terrible for the families involved. 

AAD doesn't have unmanageable debt (first maturity not until August 2018) and could probably take a decent, sustained hit to earnings without losing too much skin. The recent sale of the gyms business was earmarked as capex for the roll out of the Main Event business in the US, but will significantly reduce debt in the interim, ditto the marina business when that is sold. There is a growth premium priced into it at the moment based on the Main Event business in the US, that would have to be under serious threat so can't be good news for the SP. This isn't the first serious incident at Dreamworld, someone got caught in a different conveyor belt earlier this year and almost drowned, and the AWU raised concerns back in 2015 about safety and maintenance. 

I don't really follow AAD, so those are just some initial thoughts.


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## skc (26 October 2016)

McLovin said:


> Awful stuff. Just terrible for the families involved.
> 
> AAD doesn't have unmanageable debt (first maturity not until August 2018) and could probably take a decent, sustained hit to earnings without losing too much skin. The recent sale of the gyms business was earmarked as capex for the roll out of the Main Event business in the US, but will significantly reduce debt in the interim, ditto the marina business when that is sold. There is a growth premium priced into it at the moment based on the Main Event business in the US, that would have to be under serious threat so can't be good news for the SP. This isn't the first serious incident at Dreamworld, someone got caught in a different conveyor belt earlier this year and almost drowned, and the AWU raised concerns back in 2015 about safety and maintenance.
> 
> I don't really follow AAD, so those are just some initial thoughts.




Tragedy indeed. I had an annual pass last year and took my kids there on several occasions. I never thought a seemingly relaxed ride can cause such terrible loss of life. RIP to the victims.

Re AAD itself. In pure accounting numbers, the worst case reduction in P&L is probably priced in. The share price fall of some 30% while DreamWorld itself earned no more than that percent. The attendance will fall and stay low for some time - but it will recover in due course. It feels like the share price has fallen enough even if the theme park division is to shut forever.

However... this all assumes that the share price ~$3 is somehow "correct". AAD was trading at around $1.80-$2.00 as recently as July. Sure they sold the troublesome health clubs at a premium to where the market priced it... but the proceeds are going towards Main Event. I am not a fan of Main Event at all. It feels like a glamourised bowling arcade that is completely discretionary consumption. It has high capex and long payback period, but might actually age quite quickly. IMO the market got over excited on the prospect of short term top line growth. If AAD was trading around $2 last week before this tragic incident I wouldn't think it's a huge bargain or anything as such.


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## levin123 (27 October 2016)

skc said:


> Tragedy indeed. I had an annual pass last year and took my kids there on several occasions. I never thought a seemingly relaxed ride can cause such terrible loss of life. RIP to the victims.
> 
> Re AAD itself. In pure accounting numbers, the worst case reduction in P&L is probably priced in. The share price fall of some 30% while DreamWorld itself earned no more than that percent. The attendance will fall and stay low for some time - but it will recover in due course. It feels like the share price has fallen enough even if the theme park division is to shut forever.
> 
> However... this all assumes that the share price ~$3 is somehow "correct". AAD was trading at around $1.80-$2.00 as recently as July. Sure they sold the troublesome health clubs at a premium to where the market priced it... but the proceeds are going towards Main Event. I am not a fan of Main Event at all. It feels like a glamourised bowling arcade that is completely discretionary consumption. It has high capex and long payback period, but might actually age quite quickly. IMO the market got over excited on the prospect of short term top line growth. If AAD was trading around $2 last week before this tragic incident I wouldn't think it's a huge bargain or anything as such.




Thanks for the insight skc. That certainly makes sense


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## Knobby22 (2 November 2016)

Seems to be settling down just below $2. 
I thought you were pretty right SKC. I think the price should drop a bit more realistically.


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## Gringotts Bank (23 February 2017)

Entry soon.


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## mcgrath111 (23 February 2017)

I'm going to have a nibble today, short term trade me thinks.


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## mcgrath111 (24 February 2017)

Im out with a loss on this one, didn't want to see how fall the knife may fall.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 February 2017)

mcgrath111 said:


> Im out with a loss on this one, didn't want to see how fall the knife may fall.



Breakeven trade for me.  Market is in "do not bounce" mode, typical of reporting time.


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## mcgrath111 (24 February 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Breakeven trade for me.  Market is in "do not bounce" mode, typical of reporting time.



I've noticed this myself, various companies getting a short kick of 3-6% after reporting, yet eases off by the end of the day for 2% or flat.


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## peter2 (3 March 2017)

I've glanced back in this thread after reading comments on AAD from a weekly email I receive from Wilson Asset Management. 

This thread contains a great post from @skc . I think it's a classic and I'd love to see move of them if he cares to share. We didn't have the "like" option then but this post is worth heaps of them. If skc sees lots of likes coming up then he might be encouraged to share more comments like these. 

The post I liked was this one. 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/aad-ardent-leisure-group-stapled.18267/page-3#post-890099


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## skc (3 March 2017)

peter2 said:


> I've glanced back in this thread after reading comments on AAD from a weekly email I receive from Wilson Asset Management.
> 
> This thread contains a great post from @skc . I think it's a classic and I'd love to see move of them if he cares to share. We didn't have the "like" option then but this post is worth heaps of them. If skc sees lots of likes coming up then he might be encouraged to share more comments like these.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the love, Peter. 

To me there are 2 ways to trade - you can follow the price action, or you can be the ones who create the price action that others follow. 

However, I don't think this kind of play can be learned in a hurry. I had been trading full time for 7 years before I evolve to started using such approach.


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## Gringotts Bank (25 April 2017)

A strong couple of months chart-wise.  Would be interested in reading any FA views if anything has changed.


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2020)

I understand from media reports that the findings from the inquest into the 2016 Dreamworld tragedy are to be handed down later today. 

I've nothing further to add, just drawing it to attention - depending on what's said there may be some market reaction but given media coverage I'm assuming that a "guilty" finding is already priced in.


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## sptrawler (24 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I understand from media reports that the findings from the inquest into the 2016 Dreamworld tragedy are to be handed down later today.
> 
> I've nothing further to add, just drawing it to attention - depending on what's said there may be some market reaction but given media coverage I'm assuming that a "guilty" finding is already priced in.



Well they certainly copped some criticism.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/dreamworld-accident-inquest-coroner-findings/11993742
From the article:
Mr McDougall told a Brisbane court Dreamworld had a reputation as a "modern, world-class theme park" yet its safety and maintenance systems were "rudimentary at best".

He said there had been a "systemic failure by Dreamworld in relation to all aspects of safety" and that he was referring parent company Ardent Leisure for possible prosecution.

"[There were] frighteningly unsophisticated systems in place at Dreamworld," Mr McDougall said.

"It was simply a matter of time. That time came on October 25 [2016]."

The coroner said there was no proper engineering oversight, nor were any holistic risk assessments ever conducted on the Thunder River Rapids ride.

"Whilst there were various occasions … hazard identification risk assessment should have been triggered … this was never done," he said
"Owners should be risk-averse. That was not the case with respect of [this ride]."

"Dreamworld placed significant reliance on ride operators to identify risks of issues.

"It is unfathomable that this serious and important task fell to staff … who didn't have the requisite qualifications or skill sets to identify such risks."

Mr McDougall said "shoddy record keeping" was a significant contributor.

He said it was unclear why basic engineer controls — such as a water level monitor — were not installed on the ride.

He concluded a basic automated detection system would have been inexpensive.
Mr McDougall said he would refer Dreamworld's parent company, Ardent Leisure, to the Queensland Office of Industrial Relations.
He said Ardent Leisure "may have committed an offence under workplace laws".

"Whether there is sufficient evidence to proceed to prosecution is [a matter for them]," he said.

He said he would also refer his findings to the Board of Professional Engineers Queensland.


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## Parse (28 February 2020)

..and it's copped a hammering since the report. Down from 1.41 to 99c as of yesterday.

Their half year reports on the 21st weren't that bad. Dreamworld are an enigma, don't know what happened there really but I did some work there some years back and they had the best maintenance facility in the business, far better then Sea World/Movie World etc. Things must have changed over the years.

Stocks like these can often come back on the bounce. Perhaps one is in store for ALG in March so I'll give it the nod for the tipping comp. If it gets back to it's 1.41 I'll be doing ok.


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## Miner (21 March 2020)

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALG.AX?p=ALG.AX

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200318/pdf/44g550c4y9d3bk.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200317/pdf/44g48779nqq81r.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200313/pdf/44g1cwg1qlm7c1.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200224/pdf/44fd4p502c38xh.pdf


with Corona, travel and social exclusion, it does not appear to be happy days returning any soon for ALG. Their stars are just not favouring since the massive accident (?) happened and now it all adding up. Love the dreamland but not its stocks - sorry.
Probably it will be an ideal tip for me in April tipping unless @Parse wants to repeat his betting in April too. Please speak out


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## Parse (21 March 2020)

I thought we were trying to pick the worst stock for March! If that was the case I would be an easy winner.

I'll leave it to you for April, Miner. I'll find something else that will most likely tumble


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## Miner (21 March 2020)

Parse said:


> I thought we were trying to pick the worst stock for March! If that was the case I would be an easy winner.
> 
> I'll leave it to you for April, Miner. I'll find something else that will most likely tumble



Thanks @Parse .
I will let you  pick ALG for May tipping selection if ALG continues its flow in April as well.


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## Miner (26 March 2020)

surprisingly ALG is a buy (17 March report extract) by Citi- just sharing. DNH. Excepting Tipping at this point has no interest  or putting my money into a hole -with all interstate planes are not flying, international planes are not travelling - who will come there in next 3 months ? Where the existing staff will be in next 3 months ? When good time returns, who would manage the show - nothing before Nov 2020 in my opinion to become black


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## Iggy_Pop (18 May 2020)

My June pick for the tipping competition
*Goodlife Gyms*
ARD has 86 gyms in four states in Australia, and with the lifting of restrictions, gym members will be returning. Hopefully not too many members will be lost to having set up their own home gyms, but many will return. This should start happening in Stage 3 of the plan so July will be a key month for Goodlife Gyms
*Main Event*
The Main Event in the US is impacted by several States announcing plans that ease shelter-in-place restrictions and allow businesses to re-open contingent upon certain requirements. As it relates to States in which the Company operates, officials from Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Ohio and Florida have recently communicated re-opening plans. Based on current guidelines, the Company anticipates that it may be able to re-open 23 or more centres (representing over 50% of the total system) during the month of May 2020, subject to strict social-distancing guidelines as well as limited offerings at each venue. It is too early to predict the level of trading once the centres re-open due to reduced offerings, capacity constraints, and expected slow recovery of overall consumer demand. See the table below for a breakdown of the number of centres by State.
*Dreamworld*
Dreamworld can only look at other theme parks to see how they get started. Disneyland in some parts of the world have reopened or are planning to reopen in the next few months. Depending on the Queensland Government requirements, planning to open ready for and Australian spring is likely
*Skypoint*
Will be a matter of Queensland Government restrictions to be met which will allow Skypoint to reopen. Would expect it to be soon with the appropriate restrictions in place

Iggy


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 May 2020)

Iggy_Pop said:


> My June pick for the tipping competition
> *Goodlife Gyms*
> ARD has 86 gyms in four states in Australia, and with the lifting of restrictions, gym members will be returning. Hopefully not too many members will be lost to having set up their own home gyms, but many will return. This should start happening in Stage 3 of the plan so July will be a key month for Goodlife Gyms
> *Main Event*
> ...



@Iggy_Pop mate. You will probably win the comp.

I hate in order Gyms, Main events, Dreamworld and Heights.

This is a good pointer to a stock that will do well on fundamentals as nobody else does hate them.

gg


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## Joshyouare (19 May 2020)

Iggy_Pop said:


> My June pick for the tipping competition
> *Goodlife Gyms*
> ARD has 86 gyms in four states in Australia, and with the lifting of restrictions, gym members will be returning. Hopefully not too many members will be lost to having set up their own home gyms, but many will return. This should start happening in Stage 3 of the plan so July will be a key month for Goodlife Gyms
> *Main Event*
> ...



I'm pretty sure they sold the Goodlife gyms back a few years ago!


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