# December Stock Tipping Competition Entry Thread!



## Joe Blow (23 November 2012)

Good morning ASF and welcome to the December 2012 stock tipping competition entry thread! 

The December 2012 stock tipping competition is proudly sponsored by eToro. As the leader in social trading, eToro provides a simple, transparent and enjoyable way to invest and trade  in currencies, commodities and indices online. See who is trading what in real-time, follow the best performing traders and automatically copy what the best traders do. It's the smarter way to trade.

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*A quick recap of the rules for those not familiar with them:

1. You MUST have a minimum of 25 posts to enter. 

2. Each entrant may choose one ASX listed stock. Options, warrants and deferred settlement shares are not permitted. 

3. Stocks with a price of less than $0.01 are ineligible for the competition, as are stocks that are currently suspended from trading.

4. The winner is the entrant whose selected stock performs the best in percentage terms between December 1 and December 31.

5. The maximum number of entrants in the competition is 100.*

The competition winner will receive $100. The second placegetter will win $50 and the third placegetter $25. 

You have until midnight on Friday, November 30 to enter.

*Those who qualify, please post your entries in this thread.* Remember, once you have selected your stock, you CANNOT change it for any reason. Also, you must be qualified *when you enter*. 

Each month we usually have some members who do not qualify for the competition but enter anyway. If someone who has selected a stock hasn't yet qualified for the competition, their stock is officially up for grabs!  Just mention it when you post your entry.

Best of luck to all entrants!


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## Crom (23 November 2012)

Hi Joe,

Given your often stated desire to have more stock specific posts on ASF, which I and others totally support, how about making it a rule that to be a part of the tipping comp, you also have to provide a brief explanation of why you feel your stock choice has the potential to soar in the month.

I often feel there is a wasted opportunity for shared knowledge by virtue of the fact that the stocks being picked are a members fave, and obviously closely watched/monitored.  There is therefore considerable knowledge behind each stock selection.  This therefore a good resource for all members.

This should also generate greater interest in the stock which would then carry on over into the stock specific threads.

Would other members support this idea?

I'll reserve my stock pick till a little later in the month thanks.

Crom


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## Joe Blow (23 November 2012)

Crom said:


> Would other members support this idea?




Many thanks for the feedback, Crom!

Like yourself, I'd be very interested in the views of other ASF members about this idea.


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## Joules MM1 (23 November 2012)

CSS

i expect the stock to be bouyant because 

1 a minor technical break-out

2 the retail players are in a  chase psychology and this is what is driving price as denoted by lack of significant volume

3 as prices rise it attracts the attention of SM super funds who have a hunt-the-bargain-for-the-future pov

4 the stock has been so beaten up it attracts technical players

5 miners are less attractive so other ideas are being sought out

6 it's a bounce and price can go where ever the people forcing the bid can take it .....err...i've run out of reasons now 

7 i own it


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## Joules MM1 (23 November 2012)

Joe Blow said:


> Many thanks for the feedback, Crom!
> 
> Like yourself, I'd be very interested in the views of other ASF members about this idea.




......so, how was that ?


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## trillionaire#1 (23 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> ......so, how was that ?




Good effort Joules


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## trillionaire#1 (23 November 2012)

VGM ,vdm group again for me thanks Joe.

I expect this stock to rise this month because:1 : I have a small holding

                                                                 2 : its SP is down some 50% from a month ago

                                                                 3 : the  short term incentives paid to the MD are dependant on the 
                                                                      4 fold increase in SP ,and the delivery of a $10 million dollar EBIT 
                                                                      for the year ending june 2013(unlikely but enough to get anyone
                                                                      working hard for a turnaround)

                                                                 4 : KPMG have been tasked with the restructuring of the company
                                                                      and according to the recent asx announcement "in addition and as a consequence of the recent deteriation of the companies SP a number of parties have expressed opportunistic interest  in a corporate transaction of the company"

                                                                 5 : I have a small holding


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## drillinto (23 November 2012)

MOZ

MOZ is the only pure-play Mozambican coal explorer on ASX.
Please note that the average daily volume of this junior is small, 48536 shares.
The seniors VALE, Rio Tinto, Anglo American are already present on the Mozambican coal.
I expect that both seniors and juniors will do well during the coming years.


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## Joe Blow (24 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> ......so, how was that ?




Impressive work, Joules! 

I think I'm warming to this idea of competition entrants supplying a reason or reasons for their selection.

I hope that other December competition entrants follow the lead of those who have entered already and detail their reason(s) for choosing their selected stock when they post their entry. It's quite informative and provides some context for why people chose the stock that they did.


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## nulla nulla (24 November 2012)

*FKP* this month please Joe. The background data plotting the fall from grace of FKP is fairly well documented in the FKP thread. Now it has reached a level where the day traders are churning over volumes each day for a tight spread. Someone is going to ramp it up eventually and any small gains represent solid percentages.


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## bigdog (24 November 2012)

DMA,

I have been tipping for 2 years and hoping the chinese will deliver.  

Report due in December 2012


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## ROE (24 November 2012)

Let December be the month for LYC.

First feed and first to break China monopoly on RE


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## jancha (24 November 2012)

TZN Because it matches my eyes.
They should come out with an announcement on their drill results soon in regards with an extension to the mine life of the Angas Zinc mine. In 2008 it's sp was $4 it's now 2.9c as of Fridays close.

Joe..If this is going to be way to enter personal picks for the month... does it open up questions from other forum members to challenge the entrant for their reasons or is there a rule on no questions asked?
Another question...Is it possible to have the sp of your pick as of the time of the post and not the beginning of the month? I noticed Crom with holding (perhaps) for that reason. If TZN announcement for example came out before the end of the month i probably wouldn't tip it if you get my drift.


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## tigerboi (25 November 2012)

HSN thx joe i like it as they have no debt $24m cash & with an intrinsic value of $1.66

a break out seems imminent with an sp of 86c .......TB


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## systematic (26 November 2012)

MZI: MZI Resources.

I think sand is a good thing.


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## namrog (26 November 2012)

PRU please.

I just like the chart.....


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## peter2 (26 November 2012)

*MAK* : Please.

Price is at a significant resistance level (0.175) that has lasted 6 months.
The daily lows have been rising.
The OBV - On Balance Volume (orange line in lower frame) has been rising indicating rising demand.
The TMF - Twiggs Money Flow (brown line) has been rising and is now at its zero line. Another indicator of demand. 
(Don't ask me which is better, I don't know so they are both there.)
The medium term down trend (30-90d emas) has almost ended. 

New information (don't know, don't care) in early Oct got the investors buying and this demand has continued. 

The market risk as indicated by the coloured ribbon (top) shows the risk as medium. This dictates that I reduce the risk of each trade I start while the market risk is medium or high.


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## Iggy_Pop (26 November 2012)

AVB is due for a run up as some exploration results to be announced soon, and a share I believe will go well over the next 12 months. Hopefully this month is a good one. I also hold a few and have added on the recent dip.


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## Mickel (26 November 2012)

LNC Thanks Joe.

They have their AGM on Thursday and possibly news that their Chinese JV will be confirmed.

This will immediately have an inflow of $60M to LNC and will hopefully spur on the S/P.


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## marioland (27 November 2012)

AGS again for me, please. Qasar is going to mine, so they're bound to go up sooner or later.


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## Anmar (28 November 2012)

EML for me please Joe


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## pixel (29 November 2012)

I'll take another chance with *MYG*
Thanks Joe.


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## Purple XS2 (29 November 2012)

*AHZ* for another run please Joe.



Multi-pronged activity - sales (medical equipment), R & D surgical (from its former listing as BOD, heart-valves), R & D drugs - therapeutics for cervical cancer & herpes, from its holding in unlisted Coridon.

Some revenue from sales.

High-flyer directors & investors - Fortescue Metals pedigree.

Good early clinical results from the R & D pipelines, heart-valve technology well-advanced.

But: perceived drag on SP from presumption that a substantial holder (Avexa/AVX) will be selling down to direct their investment funds to other areas.

And but: not much cash in hand; we can expect a 25% share issues to "sophisticated" investors over the next 12 months. 

Big ambitions, and sound claims to be able to meet expectations.

Discl: holding buckets.


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## Ijustnewit (29 November 2012)

THR mining please. Running @ -35.7 % for 30 days


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## burglar (29 November 2012)

ADN Adelaide Resources, thanks Joe ... 
finding more and more copper,
in and around the historic Copper Triangle region, 
(Yorke Peninsula in South Australia)

The rest of Australia must find about it,
sooner or later!!


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## Agentm (29 November 2012)

two stocks.. which one?  txn??? sbr???

lol

ok *sbr* this month

drilling kaskara early december, so far they have drilled at 60 degrees angle and gone up to 80 to 100 meters, at locations on the lower part of the hill, off 3 pads, two holes each pad.  2 holes are already not at optimal depth of 100 meters..

as they reach the top they will drill vertical only, and try to get to 250 meters,  the money shot.. the all illusive sulphide target..  it may not sound like a long way, but nothing,, and i mean nothing in 2 years has come close. the ground is that oxidised and brittle it caves in all holes tried over the years.. tsumeb they never drilled, they simply ended up mining it.. nothing could get down through the oxidised zone..

the target.. a Cu sulphide target..  how big?? potentially bigger than tsumeb..

how big was tsumeb??

Between 1905 and 1996, the mine produced about 30 million tons of ore yielding 1.7 Mt copper, 2.8 Mt lead 0.9 Mt zinc, as well as 80 t germanium.[7] The average ore grade was 10% Pb, 4.3% Cu, 3.5% Zn, 100 ppm Ag, 50 ppm Ge.[8]

any news on sulphides would send this share into the stratosphere.. think SIR on steroids!!!

cheers


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## Nortorious (29 November 2012)

AMX for me thanks Joe.

Seems to be in the accumulation zone with some nice volume activity showing on the daily chart. It is right on/below support line. Supply seems to have dried up somewhat so should see an advance in this one in December.


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## Sdajii (29 November 2012)

I'll stick with PYM again for this month.

I chose it for November and I think I'll be coming second on the penultimate day of the competition (once Joe updates our positions) 

The rise over the last month was based on anticipation of the results of Rosewood Plantation 21H No.1 well. If successful it'll be a company maker, the share price will scream up, and I'll probably win the competition. I do think it's a long shot, but hey, if it's good it'll be awesome and if it's bad I just lost a free-to-enter competition 

...and I hold a fair bit of PYM from when I was a lot more confident in their chances of success and haven't had the opportunity to sell due to poor liquidity, so winning the competition would be a nice little cherry on top


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## mr. jeff (29 November 2012)

MAD please

I am looking at that chart and thinking if it stands at the current level (which is a classic reversal) then there is a very high risk reward play on offer with a great stock that has a very promising future. It may also see a takeover offer during the month on this price action.

I can see it back at 1.30 at the end of the Dec easily. Could be completely wrong, but based on today's action I am going to enter tomorrow.


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## Vader (29 November 2012)

*GRB* thanks (Gage Roads Brewery)

1. It's beer, 2. Some big movement in the last couple of weeks on no real change of news, but some big scope with extra capacity coming online as they grow towards some really nice contracts in 2015... if some news comes out this month that fills some of that extra capacity they have this could really jump quite quickly... or not.

...anyway, I've taken a small position, looks like some good potential there.


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## So_Cynical (29 November 2012)

*PGI* - Panterra Gold

With the current POG weakness and the latest production restraints the PGI SP has taken a hit..wont take much to turn that around.

Thanks Joe.


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## jbocker (30 November 2012)

WHN thanks Joe.
Shell currently drilling Palta prospect which extends into WHN permit. Will reach target zone during this month.


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## Joe Blow (30 November 2012)

Just a reminder that today is the last day to get your entry in for the December stock tipping competition.

We are a little low on entries for next month's competition, so if you are thinking of entering please do so today.

A sincere thank you to those who have provided a reason for why they have chosen their competition entry this month. It has made this thread much more interesting reading. I would love to see it continue!


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## Crom (30 November 2012)

AVQ thanks Joe.

Axiom mining has tenements in the Solomon Islands (World class Isabel nickel deposit, currently subject to litigation, and two highly prospective copper gold depsoits), Vietnam (Gold and Silver), and QLD (copper Gold).

While it has many strong strings to its bow, the share price is definitely being affected by the court action from Sumitomo, who are also laying claim to the Isabel deposit.  Court action has been very drawn out even though it appears that the Land owners are definitely supporting Axiom.

Drake Investments have recently invested heavily providing much needed funds, and Solomons Copper is assisting with exploration free of charge.

I very much like Axiom management, and feel very confident in their achieving success.

Once the court case is settled, and in Axiom's favour, mining can then go ahead at Isabel which is a shallow deposit and the monies will flow along with the share price.

I own a fair parcel of shares and without any ramping, see the SP appreciating in many multiples and in the very near future.

This company has a wonderful story, and I would recomend it to ASF members as a great read!

In regard to the December comp, Many of the tips and supporting comments are definitely of interest and Thanks to all who have responded to my suggestion.  I hope Joe that this will become the new norm for tipping.

Re the suggestion that the share price be based on when you make your tip, I disagree.  If you get in early you ensure you get your tip.  If you wait like I do, someone else may get it!  By waiting there is therefore a risk.

All the best

Crom


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## VSntchr (30 November 2012)

JIN please.


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## Buckfont (30 November 2012)

EXG, Excelsior Gold thanks Joe.

They have recently had some very good grades at the Kalgoorlie Nth gold deposit, 4m @ 753g/t au from 128 metres and with potential in the gold price heading north there is great upside on further drilling results. Do not hold but considered back when they were 0.4c. Silly me.


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## Miner (30 November 2012)

TXN again Joe.
I am particularly hopeful to see this rise from a lower bottom following a not so impressive ASX posting today. 
I am pretty hopeful that by the end of December the company will be in a positive news and I will have my Christmas bonus


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## jancha (30 November 2012)

Crom said:


> AVQ thanks Joe.
> 
> Re the suggestion that the share price be based on when you make your tip, I disagree.  If you get in early you ensure you get your tip.  If you wait like I do, someone else may get it!  By waiting there is therefore a risk.
> 
> ...




Dont follow Crom.
 Why would you want to wait with the possibility of someone else picking AVQ? Wouldn't it be better to tip your stock early when Jo officially opens the month at price your happy to come in on?


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## rcm617 (30 November 2012)

IOG please Joe.
With production of 641 boed (629 oil), and a market cap of 62 million fully diluted is one of the cheaper aussie oilers in the US. Thinly traded so with any good news could move up quickly. 
Due to spud 2 wells in their florence field any day now and a well in their 25% owned Ventura prospect. A decent flowrate in any of these wells could substantially lift their shareprice.


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## springhill (30 November 2012)

PVD thanks. JV annoucement imminent so will catch those that are pre-empting it. Still meets all criteria of low cap, low liquidity with dollars in the bank.


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## SilverRanger (30 November 2012)

BMN please, surely uranium prices can't just keep falling!


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## barney (30 November 2012)

*VOR *thanks Joe.

In a steady downtrend for many months ...... A lot of volume a couple of months ago around the then lows caught the eye ....... Continues to drift lower on minimal volume ...... Drilling in December/January ...... Might get lucky and snag a spike


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## Muschu (30 November 2012)

ASB please as a better direction than down is up.. which is to say I am guessing.....


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## Gringotts Bank (1 December 2012)

BLT thanks Joe.

biotech stocks seem the go at the mo.  This is a punt.A big torpedo.


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## Joe Blow (3 December 2012)

Entries for the December competition are now officially closed, but there a couple of questions that I missed that I need to respond to. Anyone else with further comments or questions, please feel free to post them in this thread.



jancha said:


> Joe..If this is going to be way to enter personal picks for the month... does it open up questions from other forum members to challenge the entrant for their reasons or is there a rule on no questions asked?




There is no need for anyone to be questioning others about their competition entry, unless that question is a genuine query and not just an attempt to goad or provoke. Even if it is a genuine query, there is no obligation for anyone to respond to a question about their entry. However, at the same time, I would urge those entering the competition not to ramp their stocks in the competition entry thread but to stick to the facts. Blatant ramping is a definite no-no anywhere on ASF.



jancha said:


> Another question...Is it possible to have the sp of your pick as of the time of the post and not the beginning of the month? I noticed Crom with holding (perhaps) for that reason. If TZN announcement for example came out before the end of the month i probably wouldn't tip it if you get my drift.




The competition has always been designed so that the entry price for all entrants is decided at midnight on the last trading day of the month. This makes entering a trade off. If you choose early, and secure the stock that you are interested in, you run the risk of it making an early move, either up or down. If you choose late, you run the risk of someone else seeing potential in the same company and entering it before you. By making the time of entry an additional variable, it adds another strategic element to the competition and makes it more interesting IMO.


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