# Oil/gas price discussion



## wayneL (13 July 2004)

For those of you who have investments in the energy sector, I thought I would start a thread on Crude Oil and other Energy Commodities (natural gas, heating oil and gasoline) for discussion.

Just to kick it off: August Crude has generated a sell signal (short term swing) If this proves to be a swing high then it will be a lower high.   

Could be a bearish or sideways setup for ther next several weeks(Just my opinion folks)

Cheers


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## wayneL (13 July 2004)

August Natural Gas already making a series of lower highs and lower lows and sold off savagely today...

Hmmmm


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## wayneL (16 July 2004)

Nobody interested in oil?

Short signal fizzled and it put in a big upside bar overnight. My sideways/down theory in tatters! :


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## Jett_Star (27 July 2004)

Interesting...


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## wayneL (29 July 2004)

Crude hitting historic highs folks! Fill up yer jerry cans! 

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-1CA2-4684-A2C1-CA253B0C50CA}&amp;siteid=mktw


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## Aceyducey (30 July 2004)

Hot Tip: Research Stuart Petroleum (STU).

Though most Australian producers will get a boost when analysts reassess the (now) low NPV put on oil across most of the country 

Cheers,

Aceyducey


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## jkool (31 July 2004)

And what about WPL? Anybody? 

I have been watchin it for about 2 mths and healthy ca 10% could have been made on them so far.


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## stefan (1 August 2004)

Wayne,

Considering the crucial factor oil is playing in our daily life, I'm not surprised that it's finally getting more expensive. I do however think that oil is heavily manipulated and therefore I don't like it as an investment. It is vulnerable to many other things and that makes it to unpredictable for me. 

Energy as such is of great interest to me but I think it is now time to look at sustainable technologies like solar and wind. Especially solar has come a very long way and IMHO has reached a state where it is competitive with oil. Lots of interesting companies out there in this sector and I'll keep a close eye on a few. 

Happy trading

Stefan


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## acouch (13 May 2008)

*Re: Coal - where to now?*

a series of oil charts so far for this evening, might
be of interest to some
ac


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## acouch (13 May 2008)

*Re: Coal - where to now?*

next two..didnt know how many it could takac


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## acouch (13 May 2008)

*Re: Coal - where to now?*

update qm chart
ac


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## acouch (13 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

last chart for this evening
but you can see how price is effected by a coil 
have a great evening 
ac


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## acouch (14 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

oil chart to keep an 
eye on..for those trading
ac


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## acouch (14 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

chart if some upside for oil
ac


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## acouch (14 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

updated chart
ac


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## acouch (14 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

updated chart
ac


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## acouch (15 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

oil chart to have a look at
ac


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## acouch (16 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

a bit of interest to some..upside/downside set up.
ac


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## acouch (16 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

ML's working to perfection
ac


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## acouch (16 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

still had some more in it
ac


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## acouch (16 May 2008)

*Re: OIL AGAIN!*

last chart
have a good evening
ac


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## acouch (21 May 2008)

daily lt.crude chart for those interested.
have a great day
ac


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## professor_frink (21 May 2008)

I moved your other oil charts over to this thread ac so you can find them a little easier in the future

Would be great to see the chart from the 16th updated so we can see how the price interacted with the ML's over the course of the session if you have it


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## acouch (21 May 2008)

to far back now prof.fink i am afraid, as it was the june contract,
and now we have moved into  july contract,
and i usually delete all ML's next day..ready to start with a new
canvas 
oil has hit 130.50 tonight
enjoy your evening
ac


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## Tysonboss1 (21 May 2008)

wayneL said:


> Crude hitting historic highs folks! Fill up yer jerry cans!
> 
> http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-1CA2-4684-A2C1-CA253B0C50CA}&amp;siteid=mktw




That article is a great flash back,....

whoever thought back in 2004 oil would be trading at $130 within a short few years,..

I remember reading an article in 2003 in BRW mag saying that within months of the invasion of iraq the world would be awash with cheap oil again and oil would rest at a long term price of $35,.... I wonder what the author of theat article is thinking now,...


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## acouch (30 May 2008)

chart might be of interest to some
ac


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## acouch (2 June 2008)

a few nos for interest..
ac


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## Whiskers (2 June 2008)

acouch said:


> a few nos for interest..
> ac




Hi acouch

From a FA perspective I thinking oil is over-cooked at the moment.

I'm not sure how to use those pitch fork things. How do you see it going?


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## acouch (2 June 2008)

Evening whiskers,

this is eod chart..to me it looks to be going to test higher..
if you look at price it has been supported by its 34 ema..(yellow)
the 34ema atm is sitting at 122.40 ..so price needs to break through that for lower..
my thoughts..
ac


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## Whiskers (3 June 2008)

acouch said:


> Evening whiskers,
> 
> this is eod chart..to me it looks to be going to test higher..
> if you look at price it has been supported by its 34 ema..(yellow)
> ...




Acouch, what about those blue lines... are they the pitch fork and do you interpret them as range or trend lines, in which case it's getting a bit toppy?

It just seems to me you use the pitch fork, but I have no real idea how to interpret it. Actually, I've rarely seen it used.


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## acouch (3 June 2008)

morning whiskers,
yes the blue lines are Andrews Medianline (pitchfork)
they have been on the chart since Dec 07, and you can see how 
price has follwed it.
for you to learn more on pitchforks go here..

http://www.medianline.com/

ps..they have a 80% chance of being hit

have a great day
ac


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## Whiskers (4 June 2008)

acouch said:


> morning whiskers,
> yes the blue lines are Andrews Medianline (pitchfork)
> they have been on the chart since Dec 07, and you can see how
> price has follwed it.
> ...




Thanks for that mate. 

I had a bit of fun swinging them all over a chart the other day. Looked good, but I had no idea what to do with them. 80% sounds like pretty good odds.


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## acouch (9 June 2008)

good morning,
just thought i would update, eod oil chart
for those interested..
note how the 34ema has supported price once again.
i have also added another Medianline , and as you can see where marked, we
have confluence at 139.63 , once over that then it looks like it
will be after 152.62
have a great day
ac


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## Sdajii (8 May 2018)

WTI bouncing around $70, multiyear high ahead of Trump's decision on the iran deal coming up in the next few hours. Pretty interesting stuff, surprising no one is talking about it here.


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## Smurf1976 (8 May 2018)

Also worth noting that the "surplus" of oil above ground has almost entirely been eliminated too.


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## Sdajii (8 May 2018)

True, the reality on the ground is supporting the price at the moment, as well as the politics. Summer driving season is about to kick in while stocks are low. OPEC is possibly going to step in to fill the gap if Iran's contribution is knocked out. Hard to predict exactly what will happen but it's a very interesting time to be watching oil.


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## Smurf1976 (8 May 2018)

I have no crystal ball but all things considered, I think there's far more chance of a spike in oil prices than a collapse at this point.

With the above ground surplus gone, it's down to production versus demand. Demand is going up and there seems to be credible threats to production in a few places due simmering conflicts of various natures or economic turmoil.

Whilst it's possible that OPEC members could lose their resolve and ramp up production, to me that seems fairly unlikely given the Saudis are planning to sell part of their national oil company and thus want higher prices and it's going to be hard for the others to do it without Saudi on side.


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## MacDizzle (19 June 2018)

Been a bit of a wild ride in oil the last few weeks, up and down. Just seen today Louisiana sweet nearly fell of a cliff the other day 13% down to $65. I dont know the reasons but if I knew how to trade oil Id think it might have been a bit oversold and perhaps a small opportunity to look into.

Im the same as smurf the Saudis lost a ton of money at the cheap oil prices and have shown a target  price they want and russia is o.k with $60 which is still o.k for the all in sustaining costs per barrel of producers . The permian basin has a few issues with gas when drilling(I think) so not a clear sign of immediate over supply U.S shale wise. I'll keep a stop but more upside the downside(potentially-no crystal ball either).


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## luutzu (21 June 2018)

MacDizzle said:


> Been a bit of a wild ride in oil the last few weeks, up and down. Just seen today Louisiana sweet nearly fell of a cliff the other day 13% down to $65. I dont know the reasons but if I knew how to trade oil Id think it might have been a bit oversold and perhaps a small opportunity to look into.
> 
> Im the same as smurf the Saudis lost a ton of money at the cheap oil prices and have shown a target  price they want and russia is o.k with $60 which is still o.k for the all in sustaining costs per barrel of producers . The permian basin has a few issues with gas when drilling(I think) so not a clear sign of immediate over supply U.S shale wise. I'll keep a stop but more upside the downside(potentially-no crystal ball either).




Would be interesting if China goes ahead with its threat to retaliate against US oil it imports.


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## Smurf1976 (21 June 2018)

MacDizzle said:


> The permian basin has a few issues with gas when drilling(I think)



Natural gas comes up with the oil and the problem is they've just about run out of capacity in the pipelines to take the gas away from the oil fields to somewhere useful (ultimately another US state).

Whilst more pipelines could be built, they're not there right now and that poses a rather big problem in terms of what to do with the gas?

Short term solution is just limit production of gas and thus oil to the capacity of the pipelines.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 January 2022)

> _Open interest for West Texas Intermediate $US100 call options for June increased 10 per cent last week as traders bet on a near 30 per cent surge in prices. And since September, open interest between $US105 and $US150 a barrel strike prices have increased 14 times._




And the overnight surge in oil prices boosted the energy sector which gained 3 per cent today. Woodside Petroleum share price rose 4.1 per cent to $24.35 and Beach Energy climbed 5.3 per cent to $1.38.


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## CityIndex (1 February 2022)

Despite the likelihood of OPEC maintaining their plan to increase oil output by 400,000bpd in March during their Wednesday meeting, price could still look to test $90 within the coming days.

With OPEC+ already struggling to hit output quotas, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has only added to an already tight oil market. Western countries have threatened imposing heavy sanctions if Russia chooses to invade Ukraine, but there is a growing belief that Russia may then retaliate by withholding oil. Therefore, as tensions in Eastern Europe continue to build, it is likely to push oil prices higher.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see whether the situation on the Ukrainian border eclipses the OPEC meeting in terms of significance to oil prices this week.


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## CityIndex (17 February 2022)

Have oil prices topped out after 8 straight weeks of gains, or this simply a breather before starting a new leg higher? 

Oil reversed course this morning as reports suggested that the US and Iran are now in the final stages of nuclear talks, opening the door to a return for Iranian oil to help alleviate some of the recent supply-side disruptions. Looking at the futures chart, crude oil opened below the uptrend support today, and is currently trading around 4% lower. If prices end up closing below $90 it could result in a deeper pullback, leaving a potential retest of the former resistance near $85 as a possibility.

However, the situation in Eastern Europe is far from over with US officials saying that Russia have actually added more troops along the Ukrainian border. If tensions re-escalate from here, it could help oil hold above $90, allowing for any overbought readings to be worked-off before the rally towards $100 gets back underway.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how this develops from here.


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## CityIndex (7 March 2022)

Oil prices surged again this morning, trading at their highest level since 2008, as the White House is considering an embargo on Russian oil.

With Russian exports making up around 7% of global supply, it’s no surprise that many analysts are forecasting a lot more upside still to come. However, prices have risen already around 65% YTD, and with the majority of those gains coming in the last month, is the potential supply threat from the Ukraine-Russia war now priced in?

Reports also suggest that a nuclear deal with Iran is edging closer, which could allow over 2 million bpd to return to the market. Although this would take a few months to reach, and is still less than Russia’s output, the return of Iranian oil would significantly reduce pressure on the oil market.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see which aspect has more weight on market sentiment, and whether continuous positive reports regarding the nuclear deal can help oil ease from its current highs over the short-term.


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## Smurf1976 (7 March 2022)

CityIndex said:


> is the potential supply threat from the Ukraine-Russia war now priced in?



A particular issue at present is the LNG market.

Under "normal" circumstances LNG is always a cheaper fuel than anything refined from oil. That being so, in any situation where there's a choice to use one or the other gas is the preferred fuel with oil only as backup.

Most common situation there is power generation. Either the ability to burn two fuels in the same facility (not all can do that but many can) or alternatively where there's both gas and oil-fired plant in the same grid and it comes down to which runs as priority and which is used only for peak load or as backup. 

In normal circumstances gas consistently wins, to the point that if someone's burning oil in power stations then that's normally a sure sign that they're in some degree of technical or other practical trouble trying to keep the lights on. It's a last resort option normally.

At present however well for anyone exposed to the LNG price the reverse is true, it's now cheaper to burn oil-based fuels than to burn gas and to the extent switching does occur, that pushes oil consumption up. There's quite a few reports of fuel switching now occurring especially in Asian countries.

That's a complication that doesn't normally exist.


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## qldfrog (7 March 2022)

I sold a third of exposure via ooo.bought late around 8 sold above 10 in a matter of weeks.nearly 30%...and not sure we will stop there so only a partial sell


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## CityIndex (21 March 2022)

New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding to on-going supply concerns coming from the war in Ukraine. Reports are suggesting that rebels from Yemen attacked Saudi Arabia over the weekend, and apparently targeted a natural gas plant as well as an Aramco fuel depot.

Despite declining over 5%, WTI crude bounced strongly off its 50-day EMA last week, potentially indicating that price was simply overextended, and needed to pullback before bulls stepped in to support another leg higher.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see if this news and the lack of de-escalation in Ukraine sees oil target a new high in the coming days. However, if tensions in either region show significant signs of easing, oil could deepen its pullback this week.


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## Telamelo (22 March 2022)

CityIndex said:


> New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding to on-going supply concerns coming from the war in Ukraine. Reports are suggesting that rebels from Yemen attacked Saudi Arabia over the weekend, and apparently targeted a natural gas plant as well as an Aramco fuel depot.
> 
> Despite declining over 5%, WTI crude bounced strongly off its 50-day EMA last week, potentially indicating that price was simply overextended, and needed to pullback before bulls stepped in to support another leg higher.
> 
> ...




Oil price has rebounded +20% (over these past 4 day's) back up to about US $114

Took an investment punt on BYE as it's "2 well drilling program" commences in April 2022 !









						Byron Energy Ltd (ASX:BYE) Share Price - Market Index
					

Today’s BYE share price, stock chart and announcements. View dividend history, insider trades and ASX analyst consensus.




					www.marketindex.com.au


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## CityIndex (23 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Oil price has rebounded +20% (over these past 4 day's) back up to about US $114
> 
> Took an investment punt on BYE as it's "2 well drilling program" commences in April 2022 !
> 
> ...




It should be interesting to see how oil trades over the rest of the week, as it now seems like the EU won’t in fact follow the US with an embargo on Russian oil. Although, with the NATO meeting still to come, and reports suggesting Biden is preparing another round of sanction on Russia, volatility is likely to remain elevated.

WTI ended up getting rejected from a band of resistance coming from the 2011 and 2013 highs, just below $115, yesterday. However, it’s important to keep in mind that all trading carries risk as prices still heavily linked to headlines concerning the war.


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Oil price has rebounded +20% (over these past 4 day's) back up to about US $114
> 
> Took an investment punt on BYE as it's "2 well drilling program" commences in April 2022 !
> 
> ...






CityIndex said:


> It should be interesting to see how oil trades over the rest of the week, as it now seems like the EU won’t in fact follow the US with an embargo on Russian oil. Although, with the NATO meeting still to come, and reports suggesting Biden is preparing another round of sanction on Russia, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
> 
> WTI ended up getting rejected from a band of resistance coming from the 2011 and 2013 highs, just below $115, yesterday. However, it’s important to keep in mind that all trading carries risk as prices still heavily linked to headlines concerning the war.




It would also appear that Russia is slowing down the repair of a Kazach pipe according to the FT,  impacted by weather,  to match the sanctions from the USA and EU.

gg


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