# Positive news announcements producing negative results!?



## Neutral (7 July 2011)

There were a few anouncements today that produced very different results and I have no idea why? 

* AUD: Employment Change = considerably > forecast = AUD appreciated 
* GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m = considerably > forecast = GBP depreciated? 
* EUR: German Industrial Production m/m = considerably > forecast = EUR depreciated? 
* USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change = considerably > forecast = USD depreciated? 

Can anyone explain why the GBP, EUR & USD did not appreciate on their respective good data? It's like all fundamentals went out the window today!


----------



## Neutral (9 July 2011)

This could have something to do with it...
"ITALY DRAGHI: Term 'Currency War' Describes Global Tension Now"


----------



## skyQuake (9 July 2011)

Neutral said:


> There were a few anouncements today that produced very different results and I have no idea why?
> 
> * AUD: Employment Change = considerably > forecast = AUD appreciated
> * GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m = considerably > forecast = GBP depreciated?
> ...




Theres the forecast and whisper numbers ie what the mkt expects. Also it could be buy fact sell rumour etc


----------



## Neutral (9 July 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Theres the forecast and whisper numbers ie what the mkt expects. Also it could be buy fact sell rumour etc




The exact same thing happened yesterday. Negative announcements such as the weak US NFPR yielded positive results for the USD except for against the Swissie. Did you see the drop in the AUD/USD & EUR/USD on the release of the weak US employment figures? It makes no sense.


----------



## skyQuake (9 July 2011)

Neutral said:


> The exact same thing happened yesterday. Negative announcements such as the weak US NFPR yielded positive results for the USD except for against the Swissie. Did you see the drop in the AUD/USD & EUR/USD on the release of the weak US employment figures? It makes no sense.




AUD is risk currency - whisper number was wayyy higher than the NFPR so futs and Aud got smashed


----------



## Neutral (9 July 2011)

skyQuake said:


> AUD is risk currency - whisper number was wayyy higher than the NFPR so futs and Aud got smashed




But no recovery... that's the bit I particulary don't understand. 

There must have been a lot of rumour mongering because this exact scenario played out for several other currencies aswell!


----------



## skyQuake (9 July 2011)

Neutral said:


> But no recovery... that's the bit I particulary don't understand.
> 
> There must have been a lot of rumour mongering because this exact scenario played out for several other currencies aswell!




Elaborate on recovery?

imo risk money has been piling on in the US recently, so those shocking figures made a lot of big guys do sell over the day type orders


----------



## Neutral (10 July 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Elaborate on recovery?
> 
> imo risk money has been piling on in the US recently, so those shocking figures made a lot of big guys do sell over the day type orders




Recovery in relation to price not recovering to levels prior news/data release levels as a consequence of alleged 'whisper' trades sending the price in the opposite direction not correlated with the news. ie. Rumour traders shorting before news release. The news release shows positive data but the prices goes down instead of up on the news. The price did not recover to levels prior to the news release.

I have now witnessed this news release price phenomenon on two consecutive days over several currency pairs and fundamentally it makes no sense.


----------



## skyQuake (10 July 2011)

Neutral said:


> Recovery in relation to price not recovering to levels prior news/data release levels as a consequence of alleged 'whisper' trades sending the price in the opposite direction not correlated with the news. ie. Rumour traders shorting before news release. The news release shows positive data but the prices goes down instead of up on the news. The price did not recover to levels prior to the news release.
> 
> I have now witnessed this news release price phenomenon on two consecutive days over several currency pairs and fundamentally it makes no sense.




imo there was no-one shorting into it - europe was fairly well behaved into it. Whisper number was slightly higher than consensus, so there were spec longs into it at the very least.

You can't expect prices to go up if the 'good' news is far worse than expected


----------



## Neutral (17 July 2011)

skyQuake said:


> You can't expect prices to go up if the 'good' news is far worse than expected




I gauge the positivity of news by the Forex Factory calander. Green is good, red is bad! :


----------

