# BUDGET 2008 - predictions



## 2020hindsight (9 May 2008)

Not sure what the budget will contain.  
"Horror Budget or horror interest rates" etc 

For mine - I hope they don't mess around with salary sacrifice, 15% tax on super. 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/09/2239634.htm?section=justin



> *Horror Budget or horror interest rates*: analyst
> Posted 26 minutes ago
> A leading economic forecaster says Treasurer Wayne Swan will have to deliver a horror Budget on Tuesday - or Australians can expect horror interest rates.
> 
> ...


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## habs (9 May 2008)

right so cutting 3 billion dollars of services stops inflation?? it also would cut some jobs no doubt, pushing up unemployment... isnt slightly high inflation and low jobless figures better than less spending and more unemployment?


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## agro (9 May 2008)

i herd speculation that they are going to take the rule of

"50% discount after hold a stock for one year"

if this is the case i would be severely annoyed by the labour government 

no wonder why everyone is going on the dole under them


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## storchyman (9 May 2008)

No more discretionary/ hybrid trusts using companies as beneficiarys?


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## Julia (9 May 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> Not sure what the budget will contain.
> "Horror Budget or horror interest rates" etc
> 
> For mine - I hope they don't mess around with salary sacrifice, 15% tax on super.
> ...




You didn't mention the fact that Chris Richardson was very, very critical of the forthcoming tax cuts which he reinforced will fuel inflation.  He suggested it was defeating the Reserve Bank's attempts to rein in inflation, and could obviously lead to further interest rate rises.

Certainly seems pretty hypocritical to me - rant on and on as Labor, particularly Swan, is doing at present about the scourge of inflation, and then further fuel it with tax cuts!

Mr Swan talks about having to make the 'hard decisions'.  The really hard but beneficial decision would be to channel the funds presently destined for tax cuts into super instead.  That way the people still get the benefit but there is a minimal, if any, effect on inflation.


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## nick2fish (9 May 2008)

agro said:


> i herd speculation that they are going to take the rule of
> 
> "50% discount after hold a stock for one year"
> 
> ...




I agree, They don't put thier hard earned cash on the line like we do in an effort to invest to get ahead, yet they have their greedy hand out. Furthermore the money that I invest has already been taxed at a reasonable rate. Just another example of how the middle income earners carry the rest of the country and are easy game for greedy governments


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## 2020hindsight (9 May 2008)

Julia said:


> You didn't mention the fact that Chris Richardson was very, very critical of the forthcoming tax cuts which he reinforced will fuel inflation.  He suggested it was defeating the Reserve Bank's attempts to rein in inflation, and could obviously lead to further interest rate rises.
> 
> Certainly seems pretty hypocritical to me - rant on and on as Labor, particularly Swan, is doing at present about the scourge of inflation, and then further fuel it with tax cuts!....



yeah but who you blaming...
Howard promised the cuts
Rudd matched him
Rudd is going to carry through on that electoral promise
Perhaps Howard would have reclassified this as a "non-core" promise. 
But the tax cuts are gonna happen, - (and agreed) not that there probably won't be extra tightening elsewhere.


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## numbercruncher (9 May 2008)

Looking like Modern Day Robin Hoods ....

Lots in this Budget for working Families by the sounds of it, Probably why Labor got in and that other party got ousted  ?




> GENEROUS tax cuts, a $20 billion surplus and a massive reining in of public spending - Wayne Swan's first Budget looks like being the one Peter Costello always wanted to deliver.






> But popular Howard government family handouts - like family tax benefit B and the baby bonus - are likely to be means-tested.






> Every department except defence has been told to come up with a two per cent "efficiency dividend", which will save a total of $1.3 billion over the next four years.




http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23666556-661,00.html


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## Julia (9 May 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> yeah but who you blaming...



Well, for heaven's sake, who do you think, 2020?  The damn tooth fairy?
Don't tell me the good Mr Rudd doesn't have the capacity to divert the promised tax cuts into super!



> Howard promised the cuts



So what?  That's completely irrelevant.  Labor is now the government and it doesn't matter what the Libs promised.



> Rudd matched him



Which simply proves he would have done whatever it took to make sure he wasn't outbid by the Libs.  No thought about the potential effect on inflation by either side.



> Rudd is going to carry through on that electoral promise



Yes, 2020, we all know that.  That was the point of my post.  To suggest if he really had inflation worries at heart, he *would not follow through with it*No hope, though that he could make such a politically unpalatable decision.




> Perhaps Howard would have reclassified this as a "non-core" promise.



Quite likely.  I don't care how anyone classifies it.  
I am just disgusted by the hypocrisy of all the bleating about how they just have to fight inflation, yet they are going to pour more spending capacity into the economy.


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## numbercruncher (10 May 2008)

More good news for Average Aussies ! (maybe not so good for Health Insurers and their stockholders?)



> Millions of Australians are set to benefit from a Medicare overhaul when the Rudd government hands down its first federal budget on Tuesday.
> 
> The shake-up will double the income threshold at which the Medicare levy kicks in, which is currently set at $16,740 and then phases out at $19,694, Fairfax newspapers report.
> 
> ...




http://au.news.yahoo.com/080509/2/16srr.html

This should have a few Interested ? Seems to be far reaching if its slashing 8b!



> WAYNE Swan will use Tuesday's budget to slash $8billion in tax breaks and incentives as part of a dual strategy to help the Reserve Bank place a lid on inflation and to begin dismantling the Howard government's tax and spending machine.
> 
> The Treasurer will present the deep cuts as the most substantial reform of tax concessions in a decade and argue that the Coalition had given too much taxpayer assistance to higher-income earners who did not need it.




http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23673834-2702,00.html


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## 2020hindsight (10 May 2008)

Julia said:


> So what?  That's completely irrelevant (that Howard also promised it).  Labor is now the government and it doesn't matter what the Libs promised.



Julia
think of it this way then...
In their reply to the budget, how can the Libs say (incontrovertibly and unqualified) that they object to the tax cuts ?  

(PS  without exposing the possibility that their election promises were not genuine)

I'm under no illusion incidentally that they are (all) quite capable of giving and taking in the same document.  

I'm also under no illusion that Nelson couldn't make an  unqualified comment (on something substantive - without contradicting himself  etc) if his life depended on it. - leastways I've yet to see it. 

PS Who gives the reply to the budget speech anyway?  I'm assuming Nelson.


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## 2020hindsight (10 May 2008)

Rudd's Reply to Budget speech from 2007  :-  
http://australianpolitics.com/2007/05/10/2007-budget-reply-speech-kevin-rudd.shtml



> 2007 Budget Reply Speech: Kevin Rudd
> 
> Mr Speaker, I am an optimist when it comes to our country’s future. Tonight I want to outline our plan for our country’s future.
> 
> ...


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## numbercruncher (10 May 2008)

> Or as a great American President once said “the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining”. The truth is the sun is shining right now on Australia. We must seize the day and get our house in order




Excellent piece of advice.

Being proactive rather than reactive should be the policy of every Government.


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## 2020hindsight (10 May 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> “the time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining”.   Excellent piece of advice.



:topic  nc, then again, I'm reminded of a relative who bought a property in the bush - took three years before they had some rain , and realised they had holes in the roof 

Guess the trick is to have the management skills to find the holes in the roof before they find you 

the time to fix the roof is not amidst the pouring rain
the time to fix the roof is when it’s sunny – then again
unless you man a roof patrol - both underneath and top
you can bet if you miss one single hole, that that’s where the rain will drop.


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## Julia (10 May 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> Julia
> think of it this way then...
> In their reply to the budget, how can the Libs say (incontrovertibly and unqualified) that they object to the tax cuts ?



Quite right.  They can't.  But then again, if it's Dr Nelson doing the replying anything is possible.  He can say two different things in the same breath.



> I'm under no illusion incidentally that they are (all) quite capable of giving and taking in the same document.



Agreed again.



> I'm also under no illusion that Nelson couldn't make an  unqualified comment (on something substantive - without contradicting himself  etc) if his life depended on it. - leastways I've yet to see it.



Agreed also.  And no doubt he will manage to squeeze in some stuff about loving babies amongst it somewhere.



> PS Who gives the reply to the budget speech anyway?  I'm assuming Nelson.



I think so.   Malcolm Turnbull might do a better job, but even he has been making some pretty silly comments recently about inflation not being much of a problem.


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## Julia (11 May 2008)

The increase in threshold for the Medicare levy will almost certainly increase private health premiums as people drop out, and will put more pressure on public hospitals which is the last thing they need.

Might this test the 'fantastic co-operation' between Federal and State governments as the States take the flak from patients being further disadvantaged with State funded hospitals?


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## numbercruncher (11 May 2008)

Yes will certainly increase pressure on the Public system, I think perhaps they have jumped ahead a little by instantly doubling the threshold, perhaps they should of started with a 50pc jump then reassessed ?


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## numbercruncher (11 May 2008)

Luxury cars in the fireing line to ...



> UPMARKET cars will attract higher taxes in Tuesday night's Federal Budget, as the Government embarks on a strategy to hit the rich.
> 
> The first Budget tax increase in more than a decade will affect all cars with a price tag of $57,000 and above - about 105,000 sales a year.
> 
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23677665-661,00.html


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## marklar (11 May 2008)

2020hindsight said:


> Not sure what the budget will contain.



Lots and lots of the phrase "working families" just like Swan's interview this morning and the whole friggin' election campaign.  It's just a new term for "Howards' battlers" designed to evoke some feeling of compassion and/or empathy.

Personally I'd like to see better investment in education (knowledge nation mk. 2) and less middle class welfare.  Swan's "we're going to overhaul the tax system, but we're not going to increase the GST base or rate" doesn't fill me with confidence.

In short, I have no predictions but I think it will be more small 'l' liberal than what we would have had from the large 'L' Liberal party.

m.


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## The Mint Man (13 May 2008)

*Re: BUDGET 2008*

Well it's getting close so thought I would bump this one up as I almost started a new thread thinking that there was no 'budget 08' thread yet.

Cheers


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## Miner (13 May 2008)

My guess is other than having luxury tax they are going to have some sort of innovative surcharge on high income bracket, some discount on environmental free machines / cars/ recycle program, will remove work for dole scheme and make it easy to get dole. No smart technique as Wayne needs two more budgets to learn


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## 2020hindsight (13 May 2008)

With WA way out in front of the rest of us ..
maybe a "special east-west equaliser" export tax on iron ore (?)
might bring the blighters back to the rest of the field


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## 2020hindsight (13 May 2008)

Hell, why say you can save $2 million per year  - when you can equally say you can save $20 million per decade !!?  (or $8mill per 4 years etc etc ) 

PS how is it they can promise cuts (or spending) over 5 years? or 8 years or whatever? - when the electoral period is only 3?


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## 2020hindsight (13 May 2008)

well Alan Kohler seems pretty impressed anyway 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/13/2243742.htm


> Alan Kohler: Nip, cut, slash and put it in the bank
> By Alan Kohler
> 
> Posted 1 hour 1 minute ago
> ...


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## Julia (13 May 2008)

Did anyone see Malcolm Turnbull interviewed by Kerry O'Brien this evening following the Budget presentation?

If that's the best Mr Turnbull can do, then we'd best give up on him as the saviour of the Libs.


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## wayneL (13 May 2008)

Julia said:


> Did anyone see Malcolm Turnbull interviewed by Kerry O'Brien this evening following the Budget presentation?
> 
> If that's the best Mr Turnbull can do, then we'd best give up on him as the saviour of the Libs.



I know he is roundly despised, but Costello will be sorely missed by the Libs. A shame fro the Libs I reckon.


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