# 17 Bullish Signs



## Timmy (24 July 2010)

David Rosenberg gives 17 reasons to be bullish.
David Rosenberg!  Wow.  Knock me down with a feather.  

The list is here, in an article titled:

*Rosenberg's 17 reasons to be bullish (seriously)*
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/23/296721/rosenbergs-17-reasons-to-be-bullish-seriously/

To pick out just one:


> – Growing confidence that the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, will be able to 'decouple' this time around. We heard this from more than just one CEO on our recent trip to NYC and Asian thumbprints were all over the positive news these past few weeks out of the likes of FedEx and UPS.




This sort of anecdotal evidence could be dismissed as maybe familiarity bias or confirmation bias from someone with a bullish bias, but Rosenberg doesn't have a bullish bias (Rosenberg being bullish is like Bin Laden eating at McDonalds ...).  So, I think this sort of data point is of value.  

OK, maybe two:


> – China's success in curbing its property bubble without bursting it.




Check this out for another alternative view of China, too (not Rosenberg):


> Well it looks like news is gradually leaking out of further stimulus measures in China.



From: *If you can't inside trade, make sure you know who does*
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/...=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MacroMan+(Macro+Man)


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## Agentm (24 July 2010)

Timmy said:


> David Rosenberg gives 17 reasons to be bullish.
> David Rosenberg!  Wow.  Knock me down with a feather.
> 
> The list is here, in an article titled:
> ...






from  bloomberg

    Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) they’ve lent to finance local government infrastructure projects, according to a person with knowledge of data collected by the nation’s regulator.

    About half of all loans need to be serviced by secondary sources including guarantors because the ventures can’t generate sufficient revenue, the person said, declining to be identified because the information is confidential. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has told banks to write off non-performing project loans by the end of this year, the person said.

    Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang said this week borrowing by the so-called local government financing vehicles may threaten the banking industry. The nation’s five-largest banks, including Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., plan to raise as much as $53.5 billion to replenish capital after the sector extended a record $1.4 trillion in credit last year.

    Local governments set up the financing vehicles to fund projects such as highways and airports due to limits on their ability to directly borrow money. The central government this year restricted borrowing on concern money isn’t being used for viable projects.

*Only 27 percent of the loans to the financing vehicles can be repaid in full by cash generated by the projects they funded, the person said.*

    Calls to the banking regulator’s press office in Beijing after business hours weren’t unanswered.

    Ensure Repayment

    China last month ordered local governments to ensure repayment and to concentrate on completing projects already under way. Financing units that fund only public projects and rely on the fiscal income of local governments to repay debt should stop spending, the State Council said June 13. Local governments have also been barred from guaranteeing loans taken by their financing vehicles.

    To minimize losses during this reform, the banking regulator has ordered lenders to create teams to discuss loan repayments with local governments and protect the rights of creditors, the person said.

    Chairman Liu said in April that inspectors would visit banks in the third quarter to check on loan reports that had to be submitted by the end of June. Those reports showed the banks had 7.7 trillion yuan of outstanding loans to the local financing vehicles at the end of last month, the person said.


looks real bullish  

lol


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## Timmy (24 July 2010)

Agent - but the China bears say you can't believe anything the Chinese government & its agencies say? (But maybe thats only applicable to bullish stuff?


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## Agentm (24 July 2010)

the chinese are only fudging up and faking figures as good as the US are, but we need to examine all the bullish signal in the US



with 65 million vacant investment properties in china..

let me guess,   the only way for that to go is up?

the biggest shopping centre on the planet, located in china, has the capacity of 2400 shops..   been empty for years

then theres always empty cities

but apart from the bullishness of the china bubbles, and the ability for their banks to write off massive debt..

in the us its looking even more bullish

lol

the erci is now negative -10.5








but that wouldnt be bullish enough

there was some massive outflows in equities, 3.2 billion last month..  and $37.5 billion year to date..  


but apart from the funds withdrawing for 11 months straight,  lol...in a time when equity funds had to redeem over $7 billion in stocks, the stock market surged by 90 points.. and on volumes equivalent to vapour..






housing inventory rises from 8.3 to 8.9 months in the US.. so plenty more empty properties available..

and lets not even mention the QE..


lol

very bullish out there, and trading carefully in the quagmire


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## Timmy (24 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> the chinese are only fudging up and faking figures as good as the US are,




But why do you believe all these US figures if you say they are fudged up and faked? 

(Just pullin' yer leg!)


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## Agentm (24 July 2010)

lol timmy

i love these bull runs myself,  i see the opportunity..

pretty crucial to pick the length of them..

but worth a punt imho


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## Timmy (24 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> lol timmy
> 
> i love these bull runs myself,  i see the opportunity..
> 
> ...




They are indeed.  I like how the FT put it in that article:



> This is a secular bear market, remember, where *rallies are there to be rented not bought:*


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## Wysiwyg (24 July 2010)

Modern architecture using the latest greatest plastics, glasses, textiles, construction techniques, steels, shapes/forms/design,  security systems, etc etc. is a growing trend as can be seen with the modernisation of China. This I believe will be ongoing worldwide as the new millennium unfolds. Reason enough to be bullish just with the 'keeping up with the neighbours' meme.

In other words industrialisation.


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## Wysiwyg (24 July 2010)

> Ensure Repayment
> 
> *China last month ordered local governments to ensure repayment and to concentrate on completing projects already under way.*
> 
> *To minimize losses during this reform, the banking regulator has ordered lenders to create teams to discuss loan repayments with local governments and protect the rights of creditors, the person said.*




Taking responsibility!!!! Something the average person fails with due to *lack of financial knowing.*


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## AzzaB80 (24 July 2010)

Thanks Timmy, did not see that coming at all from Rosey

Dennis Gartman has also turned bullish. 
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/dennis-gartman-turns-bullish-4485.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+TradersNarrative+(Trader's+Narrative)

Love this quote



> We have been asked then recently… usually by our younger and more “self-certain” clients… “How can one change one’s view on equities so quickly? How can one go from being overtly bearish one week to being a buyer the next?” The answer we have is that one has no choice in the world of trading/investing, for holding to a losing thesis and remaining steadfast in that losing thesis is the one certain route to ruin in this business. The “quick” do not become the “dead” and the very best traders… the very best investors… are those who can say that the trend has changed…


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## Timmy (28 July 2010)

AzzaB80 said:


> did not see that coming at all from Rosey




Agree, I was stunned when I saw it was from him.  
I bet it has caused angst amongst his acolytes.



AzzaB80 said:


> Love this quote



Its a good one; 'self-certain clients' hehehe.


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## Agentm (30 July 2010)

lol

the bullish sign in greece are worth noting also..

its not newsworthy of course, but you have to laugh at how those fake stress tests really put the markets at ease

and still the equity funds exit week in week out (last week a further 1.5 billion and for july 11.5 billion in total) and the 10% rise in the US traded on literally vapour is worthy of a standing ovation imho 











* With fuel shortages stranding thousands of tourists and disrupting supplies of food and medicines nationwide, prime minister George Papandreou resorted to emergency legislation, more usually used at times of war or great natural disaster, to end the walk-out.*

    But hopes of a return to normal were quickly dashed when riot police fired tear gas at thousands of truckers gathered outside the transport ministry this morning.

    "The order is coming through to [drivers] but I have no idea how they are going to react to it," said Giorgos Stamos, a member of the truck drivers' union. "It is highly unusual that after just three days of going on strike we should be mobilised in this way."

    The ruling socialists called for the mobilisation – the fourth time since the collapse of military rule in 1974 that such an order has been issued – as it became clear that Greece was facing a public health crisis because of the strike.

    On islands, where fuel supplies have totally run out, tourists could be seen abandoning rented cars by the side of the road while yachts remained docked in harbours or drifted out at sea.

    Under the order – which followed a plea by the Greek Tourist Association to stop the strike – *authorities were given the go-ahead to requisition vehicles and services, with the owners and drivers of trucks being told they had to resume work or face stiff fines.*

    "To allow the strike to continue would threaten the normal functioning of health and welfare services and public order," the government announced.

    The mayhem began on Monday when some 33,000 licensed truck drivers walked off the job in protest at government plans to open up the freight industry, one of many 'closed–shop' professions blamed for keeping the Greek economy isolated and uncompetitive.

    The debt-stricken country is under intense pressure from the EU and IMF to make the changes – a condition of the â‚¬110bn (£92bn) of emergency loans it received from eurozone nations and the Washington-based body in May.

    With officials from both organisations visiting Athens to prepare a first assessment of the progress made under the â‚¬30bn austerity program that the government has also been forced to implement, the Greek finance minister insisted that "every closed profession" would soon be opened up.

    In the case of truckers, the first group to be tackled, it will mean that new licences will be issued at lower costs and in greater number. The sector wants the government to delay the introduction of a bill to allow for more talks with the industry.

    The truckers have shown this week that such reforms will not be easy.

    In a culture where workers' rights are seen as sacred, militant unionists have reacted furiously to the mobilisation.

    "The government is aiming to smash every striker's right," Rizospastis, the newspaper of the KKE communist party proclaimed on its front page. "There is nothing but to gather forces and fight."

    The strike has further dented tourism – widely seen as the linchpin of the country's economic recovery this summer. With one in five Greeks working in the sector, tourism accounts for almost 20% of GDP.

    The trucker's strike "is a huge problem for bookings that our country needs, to cover part of the losses that have occurred in recent months," said Andreas Andreadis who heads the Greek Hotel Federation.


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## Agentm (4 August 2010)

too good to be true hey!


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## TraderSmits69 (4 August 2010)

Agree, its time to dive in deep.


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## nioka (4 August 2010)

TraderSmits69 said:


> Agree, its time to dive in deep.




A quote like that accompanied by some explanation as to why you are so positive would be appreciated.


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## cutz (4 August 2010)

TraderSmits69 said:


> Agree, its time to dive in deep.




Hi TraderSmits69,

I hope you're right and the only way is up but a fear I can't shake at the moment is the unleashing of financial destruction if the "Australian Property Bubble" is eventually pricked, a huge amount of debt will have to be unwound in a short amount of time.

I'm a little unsure how such an event will play out on our end of town (the equity markets), but I guess at the end of the day overseas events are the main drivers of the ASX200.


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## drsmith (4 August 2010)

Lower represents better in terms of equity valuation relative to gold. A more direct one to the US market is the Dow to gold ratio.

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

Now, where's the bottom ?


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## Agentm (7 August 2010)

actual participation rate in the US



source

lol


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## Agentm (9 August 2010)

hedge funds have gambled that the hurricane season to cut supply, so oil has a huge gamble on higher prices..


but one day soon the fundamentals will take hold on oil..








demand is off the cliff and supply is at a very healthy peak..

it is usual for the distillate demand to follow the trend of economic output in the usa


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## Agentm (12 August 2010)

source




> The bailout of Germany's banking sector may swell the country's public debt rate to 90% of gross domestic product, Die Zeit weekly newspaper reports Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> *  A debt ratio of 90% of GDP would be much higher than the 60% threshold set under the European Union's Maastricht Treaty.*



keeps looking bullish everywhere lol


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## Agentm (12 August 2010)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sstBdoOoyR4




> Some doctrinaire Keynesian economists would say any stimulus over the next few years won’t affect our ability to deal with deficits in the long run. This is wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic. The fiscal gap is the government’s credit-card bill and each year’s 14 percent of GDP is the interest on that bill. If it doesn’t pay this year’s interest, it will be added to the balance. Demand-siders say forgoing this year’s 14 percent fiscal tightening, and spending even more, will pay for itself, in present value, by expanding the economy and tax revenue. My reaction? Get real, or go hang out with equally deluded supply-siders. Our country is broke and can no longer afford no- pain, all-gain “solutions.”



source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/boston-universitys-kotlikoff-explains-why-us-bankrupt


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## professor_frink (31 August 2010)

comments on the recent sentiment readings:

http://pragcap.com/sentiment-turns-even-more-bearish



> The Investor’s Intelligence Survey showed a drop in bullish sentiment to just 33.3% while the AAII Survey showed a decline to 20.7%.  Both surveys have now decline to historically low levels.


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## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2010)

The moment you start looking for 'reasons' to be in a trade is the moment you should sell.  

'Reasons' are the head's way of attempting to override what the gut already knows.  

Directors may lie, balance sheets may lie, even charts can lead you astray....but sentiment never does.

My opinion only...


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## professor_frink (18 September 2010)

Thought this might be of interest:

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab...ght/todays_market/sonders/sonders_091310.html



> Key points
> 
> * Midterm elections are less than two months away and have typically ushered in better stock market performance.
> * Gridlock may be good yet again.
> * Investors need to remain flexible, and not dogmatic about the market and economy.






> we're entering what has historically been the best market phase (boxed in) within the four-year election cycle. It tends to begin just prior to the midterm election itself and typically carries through the entire subsequent pre-election year.






> The biggest boost typically comes in the quarter into which we'll soon be entering. The chart below shows the significant outperformance in the fourth quarter of the midterm election year, with the second- and third-best performance quarters coming immediately after. The bars indicate the median change for each quarter, and the midterm fourth quarter's is a healthy 8%. Again, I wouldn't suggest betting the farm, but it is invigorating to see.


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