# Bargain Hunting Friday



## mick2006 (27 July 2007)

well I have been lucky enough to make quite a few substantial profits over the last couple of months, and also lucky enough to move quite a bit of it too cash over the last fortnight or so.

With a couple of million sitting ready to be re-assigned today is going to be a perfect chance to grab a few bargains off desperate sellers.

Am looking at grabbing a few of the following if they get oversold in the morning.

PEM
AED
ZFX
WOW
MLX
RAU
BHP

Would be interested to hear what you guys are keeping an eye on today, because there is no doubt for longer term holders there will be alot of value buying today.


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## Sean K (27 July 2007)

mick2006 said:


> Would be interested to hear what you guys are keeping an eye on today, because there is no doubt for longer term holders there will be alot of value buying today.



Mick, I'm a bear in a bull suit unfortunately. I blame my brother, the biggest bear on the planet!! So, no bargain hunting for me. I'm looking at shorts until a bottom appears, or an upward trend continues.


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## masterjunko (27 July 2007)

No bargain hunting or catching the knife for me.
I too wait for uptrend.


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## motion (27 July 2007)

Hey Mick, 

What a great name Bargin hunting friday ! Well lets see what we can pickup in the wash.... It's a shame we did not get an invite earlier maybe we could have arranged some more cash for the party....

Thanks for the heads up...

ha ha ha !!


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## Pommiegranite (27 July 2007)

From a t/a view, can any positives be taken from the fact that the DOW recovered from over 400 pts down to 311.50?


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## mick2006 (27 July 2007)

Hey PG, they were talking it up as a positive on CNBC this morning.

Also said tonights GDP report will be important if it is 3% + they thought the market may rally back.

Another interesting point only 8 times has the dow fallen more than 300 points in a session and 7 times out of 8 times the next day has been higher with an average gain of 160 points.


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## Sean K (27 July 2007)

mick2006 said:


> Another interesting point only 8 times has the dow fallen more than 300 points in a session and 7 times out of 8 times the next day has been higher with an average gain of 160 points.



Were they dead cats Mick, or total recoveries? Would be interesting...


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## gfresh (27 July 2007)

I sold about 80% of my stocks yesterday (I did see some signs).. and won't be buying back in for a few more days at least. 

I'd be suprised if it just sprang back up.. I'd expect 3-4 days of downwards movement at the moment. You never know, today could have just been a small drop before 'the big one'


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## >Apocalypto< (27 July 2007)

mick2006 said:


> well I have been lucky enough to make quite a few substantial profits over the last couple of months, and also lucky enough to move quite a bit of it too cash over the last fortnight or so.
> 
> With a couple of million sitting ready to be re-assigned today is going to be a perfect chance to grab a few bargains off desperate sellers.
> 
> ...




Well Mick that may just work if your lucky.

Or your bargains today may get a hell of alot cheaper in a weeks time there is no indication to buy today.

I am with Kennas I will be looking to sell the rallies, until a base can be seen.


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## >Apocalypto< (27 July 2007)

gfresh said:


> I sold about 80% of my stocks yesterday (I did see some signs).. and won't be buying back in for a few more days at least.
> 
> I'd be suprised if it just sprang back up.. I'd expect 3-4 days of downwards movement at the moment. You never know, today could have just been a small drop before 'the big one'




I think there will be a minor rally on wall st tonight and us on monday then we will see were it goes from there, the deciding factor will be how deep the following weakness drives down.


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## UPKA (27 July 2007)

over the short term i think there willl be a bit or recovery, well on ASX at least. because there r still alot of money sitting around in cash in Super accounts, fund managers r looking for weaknesses to buy in. so we should be seeing a bit of buying on monday if we recover a lil this afternoon.


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## nomore4s (27 July 2007)

UPKA said:


> over the short term i think there willl be a bit or recovery, well on ASX at least. because there r still alot of money sitting around in cash in Super accounts, fund managers r looking for weaknesses to buy in. so we should be seeing a bit of buying on monday if we recover a lil this afternoon.




I tend to agree, but it will depend a bit on what happens o/s tonight, if they  tank again we could be in trouble on Monday.


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## prawn_86 (27 July 2007)

as i tend to take a longer term view i agree with mick. just wish i had some spare cash for the bargains.


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## CanOz (27 July 2007)

To me now, this is like survival of the fittest. The fittest being in the most demand. If the stocks you hold are truely in demand, then buyers will move in on the weakness. If not, your stops will get hit, or both may happen. The last few days have weeded out some weaker positions in my personal porfolio, the stronger positions have risen back up off the lows when the buyers came in to take advantage of the price drops.

Lets just hope that it doesn't get to carried away and there are no buyers to come in.

Cheers,


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## marklar (27 July 2007)

I'm not directly holding any stock on the XAO and I'm yet to see any significant plunge in my portfolio.  I'd love to have some $$ spare once things turn around (insert comment about not catching falling pointy things), but I really have no idea what I'd pick... 

m.


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## surfingman (27 July 2007)

Its always good to check out the companies moving ahead on days like today and find out why, keep a close watch on them.


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## gfresh (27 July 2007)

Definitely.. Lot of them that have taken the biggest hits (10%) are ones to a bit wary of in future, and some that have held up relatively well are pretty solid. Some haven't suffered as much as I may have thought.

Materials seems to have taken the biggest hit, and financials the least.. ironic consider the trigger is pretty much finance concerns from the US


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## Spaghetti (27 July 2007)

I picked up some ZFX and CMR today.


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## justjohn (27 July 2007)

Not to much damage done, expected a lot worse ,the only casualty seems to be MBL down 5% otherwise:


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## mick2006 (27 July 2007)

with you there spaghetti I also took the chance to grab some ZFX, dividend yield is enormous at these levels.

Also bought into RAU at 3.3c, looks like it has formed a base with buyers driving it back to 3.5c on good volume.


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## dj_420 (27 July 2007)

nomore4s said:


> I tend to agree, but it will depend a bit on what happens o/s tonight, if they  tank again we could be in trouble on Monday.




agree, im waiting to see what direction the markets go, could it be a correction? if so i have exited short term plays and holding on to the long term ones.

also have margin loan ready for a correction to pick up again at the bottom.

i would be to concerned about taking leveraged positions at this point in time after the markets look very heady


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## Spaghetti (27 July 2007)

Hiya Mick

Always in and out of ZFX, have an addiction.

Compass has been on my buy list for a while but I felt no rush to buy, today just impulse bought it. Was always going to buy in anyways, hope the timimg works out ok. Various 12 month forecasts are all excellent so for longer term great but I can get impatient waiting on too many stocks.


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## Spaghetti (27 July 2007)

I think it will be fine, just a correction. I always ask myself have the stocks gone down because of a good reason. If not, then they will soon bounce back. Unless there are reason I am not aware of. But US mortgages, Aussie interest rates, some overheating etc would suggest to me more money may flow into resource sector. Where else will people put their dollars? Inot mortgages lol.

Mind you my only concern is market sentiment. My theory is worthless unless the market agrees with me.


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## UPKA (27 July 2007)

Spaghetti said:


> I think it will be fine, just a correction. I always ask myself have the stocks gone down because of a good reason. If not, then they will soon bounce back. Unless there are reason I am not aware of. But US mortgages, Aussie interest rates, some overheating etc would suggest to me more money may flow into resource sector. Where else will people put their dollars? Inot mortgages lol.
> 
> Mind you my only concern is market sentiment. My theory is worthless unless the market agrees with me.




I think wats more important to us now is not what US market's doing, bt looking at the current exchange rate to USD, and also the metals prices. majority of our market is run by big miners, so metal price and exchange rate will have greater impact on the market and economy than US subprime worry. as long as the east asians (China, Korea and Japan) keep their growth rate up, in long term these short term corrections shouldnt worry us at all. after all the mining boom is still here, and thats wats driving our economic growth at the moment.


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## doogie_goes_off (27 July 2007)

With the price of lead so good even after a slide I can see why you would have PEM on your list Mick. It has a tendency to bounce enough inside a trading range to make a buck, however I only managed to do this from $4 to nearly $5 once. It's a hard one to pick because of this volatility, if it goes below trading range of about 4.50 now it may be headed down for a bit. You are right though it could be a bargain because based on lead price it should be on the up even if lead stays at 2/3 current price.

Good luck bargain hunters, it's a hard ask without a lead from world markets, could be worth having a spell until mid next week.


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## Awesomandy (27 July 2007)

UPKA said:


> as long as the east asians (China, Korea and Japan) keep their growth rate up, in long term these short term corrections shouldnt worry us at all. after all the mining boom is still here, and thats wats driving our economic growth at the moment.




That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.


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## nomore4s (27 July 2007)

Awesomandy said:


> That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.




good post, need to remember where these asian countries are getting the money to drive the growth, the US economy is still the major power imo and if it tanks there will be consequences to other countries economies.


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## Spaghetti (27 July 2007)

The USD impact of profit has worried me for sometime. Not sure it is a factor this week though. Lots of 3rd qtr activities out, haven't heard anything too negative but then I haven't read many. Metal prices have not helped but seem ok today, yo-yo as they do. Not much different from a month ago. Zinc looks great. However if people are negative s/p will go down. The only reason for it atm. panic selling. If we all did that there would be a crash.


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## doogie_goes_off (27 July 2007)

They do also have to "feed themself". Chinese car ownership is skyrocketing and construction is no all factories for the US it's domestic housing too. Certainly negative equity in America would see waves of worry which are currently a ripple, but thisgs are not quite that flimsy, I am an optimist.


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## UPKA (27 July 2007)

Awesomandy said:


> That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.




hahaha i think we had a dedicated thread on this debate. I js think the urbanisation in China alone will keep the mining boom going till after the Olympics at least. rite now its js the weaker investors getting scared n pulling out, im sure u'll find alot of the fund managers and financial planners buying up big today for their clients (I know we have been at our office ).


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## professor_frink (27 July 2007)

UPKA said:


> I think wats more important to us now is not what US market's doing, bt looking at the current exchange rate to USD, and also the metals prices. majority of our market is run by big miners, so metal price and exchange rate will have greater impact on the market and economy than US subprime worry. as long as the east asians (China, Korea and Japan) keep their growth rate up, in long term these short term corrections shouldnt worry us at all. after all the mining boom is still here, and thats wats driving our economic growth at the moment.




If you have a look at the last commodities boom back in the 70's, the world managed quite a decent bear market in the middle of it. If it happened again the resource bulls could be waiting a fair while for prices to recover.


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## doogie_goes_off (27 July 2007)

Very true professor. Bear markets are hard to pick when you need a trend to confirm what you are doing is right, often by the time you see the trend you should have sold.


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## Uncle Festivus (27 July 2007)

This is where the term 'Bull Trap' comes in handy. I think there is a big sentiment shift now going on in the US, it's just that we Australians are protected a bit by the commodities spike. Either that or the bargain hunters are too young to have been through a full blown correction.
Try to catch the knife at your peril, especially being a Friday, would you want to be long over the weekend in this market?


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## nioka (27 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Try to catch the knife at your peril, especially being a Friday, would you want to be long over the weekend in this market?




Looking back I have noticed that Friday is more likely to be a falling market and Mondays a rising one. I believe that the sentiment in your post is the factor that makes this happen. Mob sentiment in my opinion. Friday is as the post suggests, BARGAIN HUNTING DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## ideaforlife (27 July 2007)

Awesomandy said:


> That would be when the US housing market crashes, brining in negative equity, and drag the economy down, and then the market retreats, recession and job losses come in, and nobody in America can afford to buy anything apart from the pure essentials. Then, the east Asian countries would be making a lot of stuff, with nowhere to sell. This oversupply could only mean 1 thing - the end of the mining boom together with our share market bull.




Then the internal demands from China and India will rise and offset the falls from the US. It totally depends on what timeframe and economic region you are looking at. The US economy has been through a number of minor cycles themselves since 2000.


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## petervan (27 July 2007)

A couple of green shares on the screen today that shows a bit of strength in this market. POLO & EQN . POL continues to look good with the upcoming court case and EQN is now definitly in sight of a takeover.Interesting times for these two


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## mime (27 July 2007)

I got lucky as majority of my stock is in CTX. I think the Mac bank is looking like a real bargain.


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## Ken (27 July 2007)

Well if you take a good look at it.

I think Resource stocks have not really come off that much. They are still way above what they were at the start of the year.

Westfield and Banks and other private equities have fallen from highs.

I decided to pick up 400 NAB shares on close.

The dividend is 5% which is pretty good.

I probably made a bit of an error by picking up 100,000 SRZ shares a few days ago but I think they are a good 12 month hold, and you expect days like today within 12 months, so its all part of it. Nothing chages for SRZ they start drilling at gold fingers, so it was a positive day in my eyes for SRZ. I picked up a few at 27 cents... couldnt get hit at bottom.

I will buy SRZ under 30 cents untill the sun doesnt come up again.


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## wigaz (27 July 2007)

Hey everyone,
Very interesting ideas floating around here. Most seem well researched and make sense to me. In my VERY humble opinion I cannot help but feel that this "correction" is nothing more than a blip on the radar. My only real reason for this is that many ppl have been waiting for this "correction". The DOW and S&P500 are down a sizable amount  and I believe his gives a good "excuse" for this mass off selling. 

The AUD/USD has taken a battering today and I would expect this to improve exports from Oz to the US. Also the US is not the only resource consumer (I'm thinking Japan, China, Europe).

This said I'm not doing anything till things cool down and stabilise. I'm a gambling man (if I had some money spare) and would like to take a long position (maybe a CFD or margin loan) on the ASX200, depending obviously on what happens in the US tonight. 

Like I said I am a simple investor in a very complex market and may be a mile off course here in my analysis. Anyway I am just curious to see how everyone else feels.

Cheers
W


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## Spaghetti (27 July 2007)

Had VPE on my watchlist for bout a week? or so. Read somewhere, I think a speculative buy. You know sometimes you can never remember why you added a stock to a watchlist (or is that just me).??

Anyway up 5.4% today with much higher volume than normal. Usually up and down 2.5% with boring regularity. I know only a tad over one mil, but compared to normal, high volume lol. Maybe worth a look see. Not that it is a bargain but more because it bucked the trend without obvious day trading. I am going to read up more about it this weekend.


Meanwhile my new CMR shares went lower this arvo but all in all I dont feel panic. Except I think others are. Some resource stocks have had a full year run in a few months so a correction is healthy but geez some are so undervalued and still take a hammering. Almost is ....if I don't sell prices will drop....., so everyone sells and of course the price drops.


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## YELNATS (27 July 2007)

Well the All Ords was down about 170 points today, and let's not forget, this is on top of the falls on Wed & Thurs, totalling about 300 points, plus or minus a few points?

Guess I've dropped about $30,000 from my SMSF this week. Excuse while I heave a sigh.

Sigh! 

So maybe a chance to maybe get into something that I've lusted after for a long time at bargain basement prices.

Entertained the idea of a foray into MBL for the first time, very tempting with a 5.84% fall, but eventually picked up some Alloco Finance AFG just over $10.

Hoping for a silver lining after today's debacle.

regards YN.


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## Uncle Festivus (28 July 2007)

Or sweating over the weekend on my losses come Monday? Perhaps Monday is 'bargain' day?


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## masterjunko (28 July 2007)

Dow Jones	13,265.47	-208.1
FTSE-100	6,215.20	-36
Hang Seng	22,570.41	-641.28
NASDAQ	2,562.24	-37.1
Nikkei 225	17,283.81	-418.28
S & P 500	1,458.95	-23.71
SPI Futures	6,000.00	-65

Maybe the bargains are not so much of a bargain after all...

There is no cheapest but only cheaper.


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## Rimtalay (28 July 2007)

ConsMin CSM will be an interesting stock to watch on Monday. It was UP 10% on Friday, when everything else fell. It was a great day to own CSM, lots of very happy CSM punters on black Friday.


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## hangseng (28 July 2007)

Place TAP, CBH and FCL on your watchlist. Fundamentally very sound companies and currently offer value at these prices. No significant sell down in any of them but now offering good entry points. FCL may drift a little more but I see CBH going back up short term on the back of strong buyer support. TAP has bounced again off a support level and is unlikely to go lower and has had strong (big) buyer interest.

Watch the big offscreen buyers with FCL and TAP in particular, I believe the bargain hunters will come back in force with these two.

Disclosure: I bought all 3 yesterday at the lows.

Now lets see if my watching over the last few months pays off? I sold all holdings early this week and sat on cash and and a couple of small CFD's. I thought something was coming I just didn't think this early.

Market consolidation time and need to look for fundamentally sound value stocks. Penny stocks that have run hard of late will get hit very hard.

Take care, but don't panic. Keep focussed and don't take unneccesary risks.

Cheers
Hangseng


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## GreatPig (28 July 2007)

YELNATS said:
			
		

> Guess I've dropped about $30,000 from my SMSF this week. Excuse while I heave a sigh.



Better to lose it in the market than let the government get their sticky fingers on it 

Anyway, the significance of that depends on your total capital. If you're trading $1m, then it's not that much. But if you're only trading $50K... 

Cheers,
GP


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## ROE (28 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Or sweating over the weekend on my losses come Monday? Perhaps Monday is 'bargain' day?




Don't count on it.. I reckon Monday we see the market close lower 
back to 6000 here we go.

The correction we cant avoid


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## Uncle Festivus (28 July 2007)

ROE said:


> Don't count on it.. I reckon Monday we see the market close lower
> back to 6000 here we go.
> 
> The correction we cant avoid




Um, I was being facitious, I'm not holding any 'bargains' from Friday.


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## BradK (28 July 2007)

ROE said:


> The correction we cant avoid




Dont you mean, the correction we had to have? - aka the Honourable Paul Keating


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## dlineinvestor (28 July 2007)

"There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side" (J Livermore)
Wait for the signs.


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## louie (28 July 2007)

ITX did well in this minor correction.

This week alone it went up from $0.82 to $1.20.

And guess why guys because ITX announced Unaudited 2007 Profit 36% ahead of 2006.

And 60% better than Prospectus forecast, Dividend 33% above Prospectus forecast.

Just goes to prove if a company is well run these minor blips shouldn't hurt a company too much.


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## Miner (29 July 2007)

*Re: Bargain Hunting Friday or Monday or Not really*

It will be interesting in case another downslide on Monday if ASX follows DJ index fall further happened on Friday night in USA. DJ  lost another large chunk. American economy is not looking any better in days to come. Interest rate in Australia is going to up. Unfortunately pole prediction for Liberals are not looking good. Stronger Aus Dollar only adding up the pain.

Probably Monday ASX index will slide by 3-4% and the down trend will continue until 2nd of August. Or who knows it could see a pseudo crash of 1987. I am not a winner this month after investing  heavily on AWC, JBM, FMG, BHP, SRI, CTS, ACL, SIP, CTS, MOL, DIO, POS (NIA), INR, IRL - some are still good but most of them down hill. That is the game however. Not getting nerves to sell the downhill ones either. 

Just my wisdom after reading several journals (good ones), watching world markets and foreign exchange, economic indicators that stock market is getting worse for a couple of weeks. Learning from lessons probably best will be refrain from heavy speculating and sit tight. 

We will only see as no one has any crystal ball.

Regards


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## sardines (29 July 2007)

I keep thinking, how's all this subprime business that relevant to the wider global economy, when all signs are still strong? 
Are the pricing bases the same for sub-prime credit and equity?
Most company earnings will have been little impacted by the tightening credit markets. In fact, the news about Bears etc, were not new news at all.
And how much "tightening" are we talking about here? Are people no longer going to invest in lower grade credit? Does that mean that the remaining equity holders are now left with junk?...anyway, I think it's all overblown.


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