# Oil Stocks ready to Rally?



## Frank D (22 August 2009)

Even though I’m bearish on the ASX at these highs, I’m getting bullish on 
OIL in the 4th Quarter, based on this 3rd quarter consolidating pattern, 
with a potential move towards $100

I would like to begin with Santos, *but I would also like others to chip in
 and begin to have a look at other OIL stocks to see if there are any
 ‘bullish’ patterns appearing now and potential breakout patterns in the 4th Quarter or September*


*Santos*

Currently trading under the Quarterly and Monthly 50% levels.

If OIL is going to go higher, then I would like Santos to come back down
 into the 50% level in September, or the same lows as August lows and 
then break higher in September and continue towards $17.33.

Santos will go Ex on the 26th of this month, I would wait until then and 
wait until September's levels are formed.

September needs to hold Support $ 14.06 after going ex with an 
expected move towards $17.33

If support can’t hold in Sept and OIL doesn’t follow through, then downside
 is Monthly lows.

Any others?


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## JeSSica WaBBit (22 August 2009)

Frank,

Do some research on CUE, just go have a read of the last few news releases and other information (quarterly reports).

Next month should be an absolute cracker, we have a load of new projects that are coming on line and the most recent news release confirms oil flow at Maari being 39,000 BOPD and Cue have 5% of this production. Thats only one of a hole host of exciting things they have in the pipeline.

Have a read, i think you wiull be impressed.

JW


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## skc (22 August 2009)

Frank D said:


> Even though I’m bearish on the ASX at these highs, I’m getting bullish on
> OIL in the 4th Quarter, based on this 3rd quarter consolidating pattern,
> with a potential move towards $100
> 
> ...




Frank.. I know you care little about fundamentals, but STO is a well taunted potential takeover target so may be some invisible floor on the share price?


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## nomore4s (22 August 2009)

JeSSica WaBBit said:


> Frank,
> 
> Do some research on CUE, just go have a read of the last few news releases and other information (quarterly reports).
> 
> ...




JW that's nice but I don't think it fits the criteria Frank is looking for - please refer below. Frank has asked for bullish patterns that lead to potential breakout patterns - CUE has already broken out.



Frank D said:


> *but I would also like others to chip in
> and begin to have a look at other OIL stocks to see if there are any
> ‘bullish’ patterns appearing now and potential breakout patterns in the 4th Quarter or September*




This is also a reminder that some sort of analysis is needed for posts in this thread perferably T/A as that is what Frank has asked for and is looking for - Ramping will not be tolerated.


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## JeSSica WaBBit (22 August 2009)

Well, i am suggesting that the recent breakout was only the beginning of a more long term bullish move for the stock. Further to that i am suggesting that recent consolidation with lower volume and a raft of exciting project about to come on line combined with higher than expected oil production from Maari will act as a catalyst. Manaia is currently being drilled and has progressed to 4200m and M2A will follow.

Throw in the Artemis project in the NWS with JV partner MEO and i reckon this is exactly the recepie that Frank is after.

There are also other oil producing project and other exploration and possible JV opportunites. Too much to write thats why i point to the annual and quarterly reports.

The recent share placement was mostly taken up by the big players and although there are more shares in the company i would argue that the available shares remains the same or very similar.

All i am saying is add it to your list of oilers to go and have a look at.

I'll come back in a few weeks and we will let the share price be the judge of things.

JW


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## johnnyg (22 August 2009)

CVN. I'd be interested to see your patterns on that chart Frank. For myself, looking at it from an EW point of view, I think we are getting close to a very good buying opportunity.


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## Frank D (23 August 2009)

JW, skc, Johnnyg,

Thanks for the comments.

I’ll keep an eye on those over the next few weeks.

Personally I’m not big fan of Buying break outs, I prefer for stocks to pullback
 into support levels and trade those levels (monthly lows or 50% levels)

If the fundamentals are good it should already be reflected in the price 
action of the stock. However, the fundamentals of a stock could be crappy but still provide trading opportunties on the BUY side at certain times.

*
NYMEX OIL Chart…*

OIL has been capped under the Yearly 50% level for the entire 
3rd Quarter, so it’s ready to pop coming into the last month of this 
quarter and into the 4th Quarter.

I will only be concerned if OIL is trading back around $63-65  in the last 
2 weeks of September as the 3rd Quarter ends (below August lows)


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## Sunder (23 August 2009)

Damn...

I trade by scanner to take emotion out of things... Don't care what the underlying stock is as long as it's following a trend of my definition. Reading this thread just made me realise my entire long portfolio is in oil, and I had no idea...

OSH (Oil Search)
STO (Santos)
WPL (Woodside Petroleum)

To be honest, I didn't even have a clue when I bought STO that they were involved in energy...

Well, this has just become quite a large one sided gamble. I guess I'm glad oil prices rose this weekend...


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## Bonk (29 August 2009)

JPR OEX CUE HZN ERH .... basis FA!


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## beamstas (29 August 2009)

Bonk said:


> JPR OEX CUE HZN ERH .... basis FA!




When was this fa info released?
Would i be trading off info thats a few months old? A year old?


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## nomore4s (29 August 2009)

Hi Frank,

TAP & ORG might be worth looking at. Especially liking the TAP set up, high volume breakout with a low volume retest. ORG looks to be consolidating nicely above support.

Would be interested in hearing your views if you have the time.


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## JeSSica WaBBit (9 September 2009)

Just following up on this as promised.

When i first posted here suggesting CUE was worth a look on 22nd of August it was at 21 cents, today it opened at 25 cents and closed at 24 cents.

I still stand by my post and when this breaks 25 cents, which is currently acting as resistance i think 30 cents will come quickly.

To recap, this is what is currently happening

Maari production going full steam ahead and will bring in about 50 million revenue in the next 12 months.

Artemis with MEO in NWS off WA expecting JV announcement by 30 Sept.

Manaia drilling ahead, hydrocarbons identifeid, expect more news later this week.

Spikey Beach about to spud, JV wioth Beach Petroleum

Oyong Gas phase 2 expected to begin production this month - all gas already sold by cntract to the Indoneseans

M2A expected to begin drilling folowing completion of Manaia

Revenue continuing to come in from exisitng production facilities.

They are the main ones, hope i never forgot anything, there are other projects.............

JW


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## nunthewiser (9 September 2009)

i know they only penny dreadfuls but add

PCL and EGO to the list .....both technical plays 

maybe not everyone cup of tea BUT both charts .....dailys AND weeklies worth a view


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## Frank D (9 September 2009)

*NYMEX OIL*

As per my previous analysis, my expectation is that OIL is 
ready to ‘pop’ in September and continue higher into the 4th Quarter.

Previously I had the view that August would come down and then 
continue up from September’s 50% level, and this has so far played
 out, and yesterday’s price action was the 2nd confirming pattern 
with the breakout of the 5-day highs.

At this stage I favour a 2-month higher high pattern into October.

However, nothing is a foregone conclusion, and if for some reason 
Oil reverses down this week and takes out September 50% level, then 
the entire set-up is open to Risk and the Yearly 50% level is 
holding resistance.

Ideally a 2-day consolidation above $69-70, and I would favour a higher Friday close.






nomore4s said:


> Hi Frank,
> 
> TAP & ORG might be worth looking at. Especially liking the TAP set up, high volume breakout with a low volume retest. ORG looks to be consolidating nicely above support.
> 
> Would be interested in hearing your views if you have the time.




My apologies Nomore, I haven't revisted this thread since my last post, so 
I haven't had a chance to look at those stocks.


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## bordercityfirm (11 September 2009)

Guys you should have a look at OEX which someone has already mentioned, they are about to drill back to back wells in the temor sea which are thought to be better prospects than Sunrise (if you don't know what sunrise is look it up on google).

Currently the stock is priced at 27.0c after being at a low of 14 a couple of months back, has a big JV in the Japanese and the company is slowly emerging again out of it's slumber.

only 176,054,885 shares on the market which I hold 0.17%


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## Agentm (11 September 2009)

keep an eye on adi eka and aut

all three have been in a severe economic squeeze whilst trying to prove up, under extraordinarily difficult circumstances, the "eagleford" discovery.. 

its likely a farmout could eventuate in the coming 2- 3 weeks,  if that occurs the farm in partner needs to complete 3 laterals and put them on production immediately into two zones, the austin chalks and the eagleford shale, then the farmin partner will need to complete at least 5 new wells. all free carried for the likes of aut, eka and adi

my view is that these juniors could storm forward into a sudden flurry of operations and a very advanced forward well program would be initiated in the comign 3 months also.. the region is condensate saturated, some 300 bo per 1 mmcf gas is what the acreages will produce..

from 3 years ago when no one believed the eagleford could be anything these 3 juniors have held fast and survived near liquidation to possibly be transformed into some pretty exciting works programs in the very near future..

its possible to find some data on the play on the adi thread which thankfully the mods have allowed to continue over the years.. its also good reference for holders in azz and texon whom i think could be looking at the eagleford also in mcmullen county..


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## Frank D (12 September 2009)

*NYMEX OIL Futures*

OIL capped at the Yearly 50% level $ 74.00

Expected September UP move *should have been trading near 
September’s highs @ $76.00 by Thursday*…and heading towards the
 Quarterly highs ($85-102) by October-November (Friday close above the Yearly 50% level)

It shouldn’t hit the 5-day highs on Friday and reverse back down into
 support.

That’s not a good sign if bullish on OIL, and *it’s certainly not a good sign 
to be trading below the September 50% level with only 2 weeks to go 
before the 3rd Quarter ends.*

The only thing that OIL could be doing is retesting the break on Monday 
and then continuing higher from next week’s lower Weekly open & Weekly 
50% support & heading upwards into the end of the Quarter and next.

But if bullish on OIL stocks, keep an eye on the price action of OIL, 
because of the Yearly 50% level (resistance), can see lower prices in the 
4th Quarter if September 50% level fails.


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## Wysiwyg (15 September 2009)

I received a rave review today about an apparent huge oil deposit off the west coast of NZ that is going to be drilled before the end of the year. Anyone know where and particularly who??



> Studies reveal there could be 10 billion barrels of oil of the coast of New Zealand At current prices, that's $670 billion in untapped crude
> 
> *And one tiny Aussie company will use a revolutionary submersible drill to find i*t...
> *Drilling begins in November*. Read on and stake your claim in the biggest oil story of 2010


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## roland (15 September 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I received a rave review today about an apparent huge oil deposit off the west coast of NZ that is going to be drilled before the end of the year. Anyone know where and particularly who??




Rumour has it that it is AWE


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## swm79 (15 September 2009)

roland said:


> Rumour has it that it is AWE




care to share the info? if its rumoured, where's the rumour come from?

not discrediting you, but i think we need more facts that someone merely saying "rumour has it, its XYZ"


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## swm79 (15 September 2009)

i think this is what you're talking about; 

http://www.awexplore.com/irm/content/project_newzealand.html


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## TheAbyss (15 September 2009)

roland said:


> Rumour has it that it is AWE




That rumour is from July as is the diggers and drillers article being referred to.

AWE were expanding permits etc and may well have a lot of oil in their patch howveer they are yet to locate it and TUI is declining as per released infiormation.

AWE are a solid oiler and have a lot of prospects however this link to a NZ forum thread shows that this rumour is quite old now.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=2383&page=9


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## swm79 (15 September 2009)

Diggers and Drillers article.... enough said... trying to get memberships it seems

i dont doubt they MAY be correct, but you have to fall back on "sell the rumour, buy the fact"


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## johnnyg (17 September 2009)

How'd you go with CVN Frank, I'd be interested in seeing your chart and explanation.


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## Frank D (18 September 2009)

I haven't followed CVN...

However, it looks pretty good with this week's prices action.

First time in a number of months that there is a break above critical
 levels @.57 cents, which aligns with the view of an up move
 in September.

You would need to see it stabilise above .63 for a move towards 
.77-82


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## ThingyMajiggy (18 September 2009)

Weekly CVN looks fairly strong from my view point, big buying in the last 2 weeks, big push up this week, agree with Frank here, I would say we will move towards .70 area, 2 gap ups on the daily, watch for tests. Weekly has had some beaut entries too. 

Sorry if I'm intruding on your thread frank, good idea though  will be interesting to see what plays out.

in the words of a wise nun, "as you were".


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## Frank D (18 September 2009)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Sorry if I'm intruding on your thread frank, good idea though  will be interesting to see what plays out.




Sam,

It's not my thread, it's our thread and everyone else's

I only started this thread just to alert that there were some potential plays
 in oil stocks during September and into the 3rd quarter and the start of the
 4th Quarter.

*OIL Weekly*

At this OIL still remains supported, but I would perfer to see OIL trading near the highs coming into the end of the month...

I certainly don't want to see OIL trading near the 50% levels coming into the end of the Quarter.


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## JeSSica WaBBit (22 September 2009)

Not sure if you have been watching CUE Frank but the price is beginning to accelerate upwards as i suggested a few weeks ago.

Todays close was at 28 cents with a very comforting strong close. I remian bullish on this stock for all the reasons i previously posted with news expected by 30th of September about MEO JV partner, update on Oyong gas (should be production start up any day), up date on flow rates and revenue from Maari and also progress on drilling of M2A.

So we have gone from 21 cents to 28 cents in a month.

This stock has been due a revaluation for some time and i think the market will wake up once the MEO JV announcement is made.

Good luck to you all whatever stock you are on.

JW  - portfolio a very nice shade of GREEN


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## CapnBirdseye (22 September 2009)

PCL went on a similar run today.  No idea why.


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## TheAbyss (23 September 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I received a rave review today about an apparent huge oil deposit off the west coast of NZ that is going to be drilled before the end of the year. Anyone know where and particularly who??




Well the oil rumour was just that, a rumour however AWE have reported a significant gas find in WA which Origin is a JV partner (ORG 67% AWE 33%).

Funny how things work out sometimes isn't it. Not an oil find but thought i would post as it relates to an oil post. Hope that is ok.


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## JeSSica WaBBit (23 September 2009)

Hi Abyss,

Not sure but this may help you...........?????

CUE is currently drilling M2A and the they have begun production at Maari which is off the west coast of NZ with JV partners OMV & HZN.

Manaia and Matariki looking like they have potential.

see here
http://www.cuenrg.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20&Itemid=36

For more information see some of their recent announcement, presentations and quarterly reports.


JW


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## Frank D (15 October 2009)

*NYMEX:- OIL Monthly*


First month high reached @ $76.00, with an expectation of higher prices into November (2nd month).

Between now and November is a long time:- October highs could resist 
price and then continue higher in November using the Weekly 50% levels 
as trailing support.

or October will continue to breakout and trend into November:- break 
and extend pattern towards $84.00

Eventually OIL was going to follow the trend higher, but I thought 
September was going to move upwards.

The important pattern is that price is above the Yearly 50% level and 
could remain above this level for the rest of the 4th Quarter.

3rd Quarter target was over $100, but the 4th Quarter target is based on 
$84+ or November's highs.


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## prozac (29 December 2009)

Be careful in any rally of oil stocks Bounty Oil (BUY) and Drillsearch (DLS) as they are most likely pumps and not the real deal.


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## nunthewiser (29 December 2009)

PCL agaIn from around here ..................... 3.3/3.4.......

TIGHT STOPS


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## Agentm (29 December 2009)

watch for the dynamic trio aut   eka adi..   about to run.. amny wels to come and plenty of interesting frac ops in progress. upside pretty spectacular on any success


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## nunthewiser (5 January 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> PCL agaIn from around here ..................... 3.3/3.4.......
> 
> TIGHT STOPS




Well done nun you are a guru.


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## CanOz (28 November 2014)

With the CL contract quickly approaching support (hockey stick), it may be a good time to start watching some oil stocks again....


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## dlineinvestor (28 November 2014)

CanOz said:


> With the CL contract quickly approaching support (hockey stick), it may be a good time to start watching some oil stocks again....



Opec making the rules and their not playing the game. 
Wonder why they aren't cutting production. That along with aud and IOre savaging today.
Which stocks would be your picks ?


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## Faramir (28 November 2014)

BPT, DLS, SXY?? Or ORG and STO?? for larger caps. I still think oil price has a bit more to fall. Why? A guess, someone in the world wants to reduce Russia's oil income. Saudi Arabia producing extra oil and someone will owe them a favour one day. Everything I am saying is just speculation amd a guess?

Sad in a way. I like Senex Energy and its gas future, debt free account. If it goes lower: taekeover??? How can I speculate?


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## So_Cynical (28 November 2014)

Santos down 10%+ today and now trading at under $10.50, i will try and buy some cheap 12 month calls.


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## Smurf1976 (28 November 2014)

At US$ 68 per barrel, oil is now quite some way below the point at which some sources of supply are profitable. They'll continue operating, since once you've drilled the wells etc the actual operation isn't hugely expensive, but at this price quite a few projects would never have gone ahead in the first place. Assuming the low price stays around for a while, in due course there will be projects that would have gone ahead but end up being cancelled.

So my thinking is that, whilst markets can do anything in the short term, this price for oil is probably unsustainable in the longer term unless there's either a sustained drop in consumption and/or those who have the ability to develop cheaper sources of oil choose to do so (most notably Venezuela - but they'd likely need a new government first so it's not a simple matter of economics to develop oil there).


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## CanOz (28 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> Opec making the rules and their not playing the game.
> Wonder why they aren't cutting production. That along with aud and IOre savaging today.
> Which stocks would be your picks ?




Here's one on my watch list for a longer term play...currently 9% div. 

Need a solid bottom here though, capital intensive business the oil sands. They need 75+ / bbl to be profitable


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## dlineinvestor (28 November 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> At US$ 68 per barrel, oil is now quite some way below the point at which some sources of supply are profitable. They'll continue operating, since once you've drilled the wells etc the actual operation isn't hugely expensive, but at this price quite a few projects would never have gone ahead in the first place. Assuming the low price stays around for a while, in due course there will be projects that would have gone ahead but end up being cancelled.
> 
> So my thinking is that, whilst markets can do anything in the short term, this price for oil is probably unsustainable in the longer term unless there's either a sustained drop in consumption and/or those who have the ability to develop cheaper sources of oil choose to do so (most notably Venezuela - but they'd likely need a new government first so it's not a simple matter of economics to develop oil there).




Not sure if you guys are aware of this video on the current "oil" situation .... but lends some insight
"tech" make sure you watch this *video* !!!!!!!!


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## CanOz (29 November 2014)

*Oil smashed through support*

Last night oil smashed support, guessing there were allot of stops there.

At this rate we could actually see 40 USD / bbl?

OPEC Gusher to Hit Weakest Players, From Wildcatters to Iran


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## Wysiwyg (1 December 2014)

Noticed more oil stock traders are dropping cyanide capsules today. Is this the low?

Poster 'Treefrog' had this link for panic selling information.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/esm.asp


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## Deriv555 (31 December 2014)

CanOz said:


> Here's one on my watch list for a longer term play...currently 9% div.
> 
> Need a solid bottom here though, capital intensive business the oil sands. They need 75+ / bbl to be profitable




Sorry to veer off topic, but what's that stock app? I love the black background...


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## CanOz (31 December 2014)

Deriv555 said:


> Sorry to veer off topic, but what's that stock app? I love the black background...




Just good ole Amibroker 5.50


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## notting (13 January 2015)

Where is hell anyway?


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## pixel (13 January 2015)

notting said:


> Where is hell anyway?




$35-$45 for the hext 2 years?


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## Wysiwyg (13 January 2015)

Still haven't learned that prices go beyond what seems reasonable.


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## Porper (30 November 2016)

Oil is under the cosh on the back of the perception that OPEC will not come to an agreement to cut production tomorrow.

If an agreement is made then some stocks (below) are primed for a good rally. Charts very basic but self-explanatory.

I hold all 3.

Higher risk obviously so tight stops.


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## notting (30 November 2016)

If I bet, I will watch how they close and back a spike or short a drop.
Insiders have been showing their hand's over night announcements on oilers since the OPEC Russian Jokers started manipulating it with announcements and meetings and pretend agreements.


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## Porper (30 November 2016)

notting said:


> If I bet, I will watch how they close and back a spike or short a drop.
> Insiders have been showing their hand's over night announcements on oilers since the OPEC Russian Jokers started manipulating it with announcements and meetings and pretend agreements.




Could go either way, nobody has a clue.

I wouldn't be shorting any of those stocks. I will be out for breakeven or a small loss if oil tanks on a lack of agreement...notwithstanding a major collapse in oil but not likely i.m.o.


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## Kryzz (30 November 2016)

Porper said:


> Could go either way, nobody has a clue.
> 
> I wouldn't be shorting any of those stocks. I will be out for breakeven or a small loss if oil tanks on a lack of agreement...notwithstanding a major collapse in oil but not likely i.m.o.




Definitely off to a promising start..


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## luutzu (30 November 2016)

Kryzz said:


> Definitely off to a promising start..




Takes a brave person to bet either way on oil in the short term.


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## notting (30 November 2016)

Porper said:


> Could go either way, nobody has a clue.
> 
> I wouldn't be shorting any of those stocks. I will be out for breakeven or a small loss if oil tanks on a lack of agreement...notwithstanding a major collapse in oil but not likely i.m.o.




I gave you the clue in the very paragraph you quoted!!!!

Almost all of them kicked at the close and were looking to close higher all be it only a little from the last open market trade price to the closing price.
I only went long on one of them because it wasn't that aggressive.
So far oil has spiked 8% since!!!

However, I would caution that 'being close to an agreement' is not worth an 8% spike in my opinion!!!


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## Porper (1 December 2016)

notting said:


> I only went long on one of them because it wasn't that aggressive




The point I was making was that the patterns on WPL, AWE & BPT provided low risk entries a while ago. It didn't matter (in the bigger scheme of things) whether an OPEC deal was made or not.  Getting in early removed a lot of the risk. All we can control is how much we are prepared to lose.

Short-term price action for oil is anyone's guess but heading in the right direction for now so will go with the flow.


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## notting (1 December 2016)

Porper said:


> The point I was making was that the patterns on WPL, AWE & BPT provided low risk entries a while ago.




Yes, your point was fine on a broader level.

However, in this rare occasion, I was pointing out that there was actually a fairly good chance of picking what would happen today, yesterday if you watched what I said to watch.

Obviously, an opportunity like that is fairly unusual in general circumstances and would be regarded as highly risky to the traditional technical and fundamental analasys. 

Your post seemed to ignore my magnificent insight which deeply hurt my feelings. 
 It's OK I have had counseling and am over it now.


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