# Where are we heading?



## stargazer (24 May 2008)

Hi 

I was just thinking in my limited laymens experience.  The RBA keeps talking about the inflation and keeping an eye on it and the magical 2-3% or the rates are just goiing to be driven up.

We have oil going up by the day and some are now predicting possibly $200 a barrel.

Government says it can't do anymore for those hurting with petrol prices etc.

Food costs are going up, transport costs etc etc etc.

What  forces have to come into play for interest rates rising threat to diminish apart from reduce spending people are already starting to feel the pinch.

What can people do:
Fix rates
reduce debt
reduce investing if borrowing
not buy investment properties?
Buy Australian 

More and more i hear some desperation in peoples voices for all walks of life on radio talk back shows etc.

Or do we throw caution to the wind and get every cent into this mining boom which will probably  be part of driving inflation up and attempt to make some money to reduce our debts.

cheers
SG


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## Sean K (24 May 2008)

*Re: Where are we heading*



stargazer said:


> Hi
> 
> I was just thinking in my limited laymens experience.  The RBA keeps talking about the inflation and keeping an eye on it and the magical 2-3% or the rates are just goiing to be driven up.
> 
> ...



Just speaking generally, with no understanding of economics, I have this to say.

Humans are greedy, and stupid. 

Only when our environment forces us to change our behaviour will we do so. 

So; we will keep borrowing, keep buying crap we don't need, continue to use up our natural resources untill they are all gone, keep fighting our neighbours, keep killing each other because we believe in extraterrestrials, yadayadayadah ...., until at some point we are _forced _to change. 



Damn lucky we somehow got this thumb and big brain cavity....

And yes, throw all you've got at resources. 
See my shareholdings and buy em all up!!! LOL


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## explod (24 May 2008)

*Re: Where are we heading*

Could be a good thread.  Agree with your sentiments Kennas.

My wife spotted a good book a few weeks ago which we are working through.  Sorry Joe, have not checked if its on your list.

"Wealthier than you THINK"  everything you need to know about making your money work for you.  by Paul Squires.   Silver Bird Publishing WA 2007

An Assie author and publisher, this is a ripper for the family unit.   It also has goal setting and techniques to beat retail therapy, saving dividing money.
Dont' know too much about it, cant get it off my old bride, WHICH IS BL..DY FANTASTIC.

In addittion to you recos above Kennas, buy authentic gold and silver coins.   We have begun to hoard some basic long life food stuffs (3 four year time frame)


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## yonnie (24 May 2008)

*Re: Where are we heading*

I would like to look at this internationally and work my way back domestically.

what we see internationally are rising energy, commodities and food prices.

inflation is going up and economic growth is going down.

the countries that depend on importing energy, commodities and food products will be in for a rough time from now on. I`m thinking about Singapore, Japan etc.
Time to short their equities and currencies when confirmed by price action.

For the time being, countries which export these products
will be in for a boom time for the next 1-2 years until the rest of the world is in a recession and stop buying cars, homes etc.

once the Ozzie reserve bank starts to lower interest rates, its time to buy bond and short Australian, Canadian etc. equities and currencies or have your money in the bank.

Any comments?


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## stargazer (24 May 2008)

Well i just feel there is going to be interesting times ahead full of hardship for some and opportunity for others.

Cheers
SG


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## Wysiwyg (24 May 2008)

stargazer said:


> Well i just feel there is going to be interesting times ahead full of hardship for some and opportunity for others.
> 
> Cheers
> SG





I`m caught between wantingly helping the sick or poor and a part of me that says natural attrition is better for the planets health.One of my teachers believes that we must help keep diseased and poor people alive, find cures etc. which goes completely against the rest of life on this planet. The natural attrition.It`s a conscience and compassion thing and I try to help both the sick and the planet.

Natural attriton versus compassion for our fellow humans???????


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## stargazer (24 May 2008)

How do we know the planet does not have cures just because we don't know about them doesn't mean they don't exist.

I am a bit lost how this fits into the economic hardship or opportunity for our population.

Cheers
SG


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## Muschu (24 May 2008)

*Re: Where are we heading*



explod said:


> ...
> My wife spotted a good book a few weeks ago which we are working through. ..."Wealthier than you THINK"  everything you need to know about making your money work for you.  by Paul Squires.   Silver Bird Publishing WA 2007...




Another interesting Aussie read is "How much is Enough?"


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## nioka (24 May 2008)

Wysiwyg said:


> I`m caught between wantingly helping the sick or poor and a part of me that says natural attrition is better for the planets health.One of my teachers believes that we must help keep diseased and poor people alive, find cures etc. which goes completely against the rest of life on this planet. The natural attrition.It`s a conscience and compassion thing and I try to help both the sick and the planet.
> 
> Natural attriton versus compassion for our fellow humans???????




Compassion is what is supposed to seperate us from the rest of the animals on this earth. Even with compassion there is still natural attrition.


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## Muschu (25 May 2008)

nioka said:


> Compassion is what is supposed to seperate us from the rest of the animals on this earth. Even with compassion there is still natural attrition.




Would you mind elaborating please Nioka?  Is it fair to assume that, by natural attrition, you are referring to the unanticipated disasters of flood, earthquakes, etc?  If so then compassion can follow the event.  Although often  disaster [eg - famine] is known to be present or can be anticipated.

It's a tough call and I wish there was a perfect answer.  Maybe a part of the question, a personal one for each of us, is to ask how much we are prepared to sacrifice.

I hope that makes some sense.

R


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## hangseng (25 May 2008)

This story may provide a little insight as to where we may be heading.

Megabubble waiting for new president in 2009
'Numbers racket' exposes potential disaster for economy, markets
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=f91a084369b44c0c92ceb835d9907945&siteid=nwhpf

This says it for me....


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## explod (25 May 2008)

hangseng said:


> This story may provide a little insight as to where we may be heading.
> 
> Megabubble waiting for new president in 2009
> 'Numbers racket' exposes potential disaster for economy, markets
> ...




The revalations have been available from a number of commentators for years now but you try convincing anyone.   The lambs will not know what hit them in 2009.

The gold bugs and others hedging in the right areas will make a killing but with the misery around how good will we feel.   

At leaast in Australia we can be self sufficient in food and walking never hurt anyone.


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## nioka (25 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> Would you mind elaborating please Nioka?  Is it fair to assume that, by natural attrition, you are referring to the unanticipated disasters of flood, earthquakes, etc?  If so then compassion can follow the event.  Although often  disaster [eg - famine] is known to be present or can be anticipated.
> 
> It's a tough call and I wish there was a perfect answer.  Maybe a part of the question, a personal one for each of us, is to ask how much we are prepared to sacrifice.
> 
> ...




 Old age, infertility, plus natural disasters, and increasing the standard of living is usually associated with lower birth rates.


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## Smurf1976 (25 May 2008)

explod said:


> The revalations have been available from a number of commentators for years now but you try convincing anyone.   The lambs will not know what hit them in 2009.



What has me worried is that 2009 seems to be emerging as a consensus. That's not far away...


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## brty (25 May 2008)

My 2 cents worth here is that we may be near the top of the current oil price rises. Everyone thinks they will go higher, there are a million arguments why, but commodity markets move in mysterious ways. 

If everyone is already long oil/energy etc then it might be that 'normality may return within months, oil in the $65-90 dollar range with much talk about another imminent catastrophe.

Next year is always thrown up as the potential end of life as we know it, always has been always will be. Plan your trades and trade your plans.

brty


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## Julia (25 May 2008)

brty said:


> My 2 cents worth here is that we may be near the top of the current oil price rises. Everyone thinks they will go higher, there are a million arguments why, but commodity markets move in mysterious ways.
> 
> If everyone is already long oil/energy etc then it might be that 'normality may return within months, oil in the $65-90 dollar range with much talk about another imminent catastrophe.
> 
> ...



Could you say why you think oil prices may have topped?  i.e. what is the fundamental scenario which would lead you to this conclusion?


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## brty (25 May 2008)

Everyone is so certain that they will go higher.

Fundamentally, all the oil chiefs, sheiks etc think it is overpriced now.

We have an oil mania right now.

Traditionally May is near the peak in oil prices.

I like to think outside the square as that is where markets usually go.

brty


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## nioka (25 May 2008)

brty said:


> Fundamentally, all the oil chiefs, sheiks etc think it is overpriced now.




It is in their hands to charge less if they want to do so. I think they are laughing all the way to the bank.


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