# Rate my portfolio



## Tysonboss1 (26 January 2009)

I thought I would post a thread where people could list their current share holdings for others to comment on. I thought this would be a good platform to share infomation and ideas of different combinations of stocks, and it would be good to see where people are heading in todays maket.

I have listed my holdings as of friday the 23rd of jan 09, I welcome any comments, thoughts or opinions both postive and negative, and hope others will also share their own holdings.

My share holdings are listed below from largest to smallest.

Macquarie country wide     MCW - 21.74 %
Sims Metal Management     SGM - 20.06 %
BHP                                BHP - 16.28 %
APA Group                       APA - 10.67 %
Toll Holdings                     TOL - 9.58 %
B & B infrastructure            BBI - 4.19 %
Commonwealth Bank          CBA - 4.08 %
Australian Automotive        AHE - 3.95 %
Arrow energy                    AOE- 3.5 %
Beach Petroleum               BPT - small
Geodynamics                    GDY- smaller
FKP property                    FKP - very small


----------



## MR. (26 January 2009)

*Re: Rate my portfolio.*

I have headed to 100% cash.  

I have a very poor outlook, I'm sorry.  

Don't know where to start with comments, I'll make it on the first. Macquarie Countrywide. They have 4800+ tennants.  I would buy if they only had Woolworths and Coles but is not the case.  I strongly believe they will lose many tennants and Woolworths and Coles don't pay enough rent.  Has the price been factored in enough?


----------



## Gerkin (26 January 2009)

Tyson Boss 
- You have no consumer staples or healthcare exposure, may i ask who created this portfolio? If it was a broker i would be giving them the lemonade and sars.


----------



## wonderrman (26 January 2009)

Sorry but I'm not really a massive fan of your portfolio either. It's a pretty ugly portfolio really.

 At the moment you can pick up first rate, primary companies with dominant market positions at great prices. Those are the companies I would be looking to buy.

The only companies I would think about holding out of the ones you mention are Toll or BHP.


----------



## beerwm (26 January 2009)

Hi Tyson

Its hard to rate a portfolio without knowing your style, investing im assuming.

i've been watching these though, and like them considerably

AOE- PES takeover seems a very good deal, huge reserves/acreage-for value, alliance with Shell, gladstone lng export

GDY- probably the safest of the geo-thermals, proof of concept to be not far off, potential great [if you believe the hype of geothermal]

-/- but of course fundamentals dont always equate to big $$$

i'm about 70% in cash myself, soon to be 100%


----------



## CanOz (26 January 2009)

Here's mine:


----------



## arco (26 January 2009)

CanOz said:


> Here's mine:




You've got the same ones as me


----------



## adobee (26 January 2009)

80% AGO ATLAS IRON
5%  AAR Anglo Australian Res
5%  AND Andean Resources
5% MAE Marion Energy
5%  BMY Brumby Resources


----------



## So_Cynical (26 January 2009)

Tysonboss1 your only Gold exposure is BHP and as said before no consumer 
staples....the big question is how much did u pay to get into all those?

GDY was a great buy a few months ago at around 70 cents, same with APA 
a few months ago at around 2.60..paying to much for anything is always bad.

TOL and CBA hitting new lows...will u buy more?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 January 2009)

*Re: Rate my portfolio.*



MR. said:


> Don't know where to start with comments, I'll make it on the first. Macquarie Countrywide. They have 4800+ tennants.  I would buy if they only had Woolworths and Coles but is not the case.  I strongly believe they will lose many tennants and Woolworths and Coles don't pay enough rent.  Has the price been factored in enough?




I like MCW, I bought the majority of my holding in them at about 20c, I bought in before the ex dividend date so with a 4c div on the way I took the punt that they would atleast hold their value and I would be up 20%.

Some one quoted that I had no consumer staples, How ever I would almost put MCW in the consumer staples basket due to most of there property is ancored by grocery retail businesses.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 January 2009)

beerwm said:


> Hi Tyson
> 
> Its hard to rate a portfolio without knowing your style, investing im assuming.
> 
> i've been watching these though, and like them considerably




I don't really trade, I am in the position where I have alot of excess cashflow coming from my business so I am pretty much using about 80% of my earnings to build a portfolio of shares that will produce a good cashflow from dividends for me in the future.

I don't care if the dividends are reduced in the short term, My main focus is on picking up shares in some companies that I believe are really under valued and have a good chance of recovery and will pay really good dividends compared to the price I am paying for them now.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> It's a pretty ugly portfolio really.




Can you expand a bit more on your comment, maybe point out the some weaknesses.

and maybe offer your current portfolio.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 January 2009)

beerwm said:


> i'm about 70% in cash myself, soon to be 100%




I would have thought that it is to late to head for cash,


----------



## MRC & Co (26 January 2009)

Yeh, I agree with the comments above, in that you have too much exposure to the current market.

Never too late to head for cash.  We are probably still going lower.


----------



## ormond (26 January 2009)

I should be in cash and i'm paying dearly for being an optimist!


AJL-A J lucas 11.13%
AAX-Ausenco 10.85%
UGL-United group 11.46%
KAR-Karoon gas 10.80%
CDD-Cardno 6.22%
IMF-IMF Aust. 6.49%
MAH-Macmahon Holdings 5.22%
MLB-Melbourne IT-6.52%
ORE-Orocobre Ltd 7.39%
WOR-Worley Parsons 5.54%
TRY-Troy res. 4.69  
MAK-Minemakers 4.00%
IMD-Imdex-3.86%
WDS-WDS Group 2.51%
SEA-Sundance energy 1.83%
KBC-Keybridge Capital-1.48%


----------



## beerwm (26 January 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I would have thought that it is to late to head for cash,




i guess it depends of whether you think this is the bottom, the market trend is still down IMO [or to put it better, is not moving up]

my 30% cash is just waiting on a transaction.

also, im only young and new to the whole money game, so my time will be used reading/researching/learning [focus on trading]


----------



## wonderrman (26 January 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Can you expand a bit more on your comment, maybe point out the some weaknesses.




I think you could do better in other stocks over the long run really. I don't see the need to hold all these second and third line stocks when you can buy top notch quality. Obviously it depends how long you've been holding them though and when you bought. 

The market has given you an opportunity to buy top stocks at quite low prices (and they could get even more lower - who knows?). You should be taking this and getting in the companies with dominant market positions. They will only get bigger and more powerful coming out of the downturn.

As I said, I probably would only hold onto Toll and BHP out of the stocks you mentioned. I don't like banks and don't think they can ever be judged as quality. They're to her to put a value on. 



> I don't care if the dividends are reduced in the short term, My main focus is on picking up shares in some companies that I believe are really under valued and have a good chance of recovery and will pay really good dividends compared to the price I am paying for them now.




I would say Flight Centre should be at the top of your list then. Extremely cheap. Do some research and hopefully you will see why I like this one. 



> and maybe offer your current portfolio.




Yes, I hold 30% in stocks which I bought in the November lows and 70% in the bank. I only hold two stocks, the one I've mentioned above is one of them.


----------



## beerwm (26 January 2009)

regarding FLT, i'd be wary purchasing a stock making new 52 week lows,
from a purely technical basis.


----------



## Julia (26 January 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I thought I would post a thread where people could list their current share holdings for others to comment on. I thought this would be a good platform to share infomation and ideas of different combinations of stocks, and it would be good to see where people are heading in todays maket.
> 
> I have listed my holdings as of friday the 23rd of jan 09, I welcome any comments, thoughts or opinions both postive and negative, and hope others will also share their own holdings.
> 
> ...




Tyson, I've been in cash only for the last year so am a bit out of touch with the market at present.  Will begin to take an active interest when there is a general return to confidence.  I don't think this will be anytime soon.

Of your p/f I'd buy BHP and Arrow Energy.  Would add Woolworths, one insurance company, either QBE or IAG, possibly AGK, and a healthcare company.

I'd be interested to know when you bought the above shares, particularly FKP which has experienced a huge fall from grace.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 January 2009)

Julia said:


> I'd be interested to know when you bought the above shares, particularly FKP which has experienced a huge fall from grace.




I had a heap of fkp about 30% of my holdings but I sold out at just under $5, The only FKP shares I hold now were from a dividend reinvestment plan that was paid after I had sold out because I sold out after the ex div date.

I don't usally trade but I sold the FKP shares because they had gone to nearly $5 after I bought in near $3, at the time the div yeild droped to under 8% and APA was at circa $2.70 with a better div yeild so I bought into them and QGC with the profits.

the rest I have being buying parcels of shares for months so my original parcels were expensive in retrospect, however were low compared to the highs and I continue to invest on a monthly basis.


----------



## MR. (26 January 2009)

Julia said:


> I've been in cash only for the last year




Julia, you may have missed my question on another thread. I asked what term have you locked your cash into?
It appears you arn't looking at buying shares!


----------



## roofa (26 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> As I said, I probably would only hold onto Toll and BHP out of the stocks you mentioned. I don't like banks and don't think they can ever be judged as quality. They're to her to put a value on.





You may get better returns by owning bank stocks than having the money in the bank at current prices and interest rates.


----------



## Julia (26 January 2009)

MR. said:


> Julia, you may have missed my question on another thread. I asked what term have you locked your cash into?
> It appears you arn't looking at buying shares!



Sorry, MR, I did miss your question.
I have a second six month term maturing at the beginning of April this year.
I'll continue fairly short term deposits in order to have the cash available when I'm ready to start buying again.  It may well be that it's years until we see a market recovery but I'm not prepared to bank on that for the sake of about an extra 1%, only to forfeit interest earned if the deposit is broken.

Have deposited the cash in multiple individual lots so I can gradually feed it into the market without penalty.


----------



## roofa (26 January 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I had a heap of fkp about 30% of my holdings but I sold out at just under $5, The only FKP shares I hold now were from a dividend reinvestment plan that was paid after I had sold out because I sold out after the ex div date.
> 
> I don't usally trade but I sold the FKP shares because they had gone to nearly $5 after I bought in near $3, at the time the div yeild droped to under 8% and APA was at circa $2.70 with a better div yeild so I bought into them and QGC with the profits.
> 
> the rest I have being buying parcels of shares for months so my original parcels were expensive in retrospect, however were low compared to the highs and I continue to invest on a monthly basis.




Well done on FKP, picked some up myself during the week at .45.
I've had my eye on them for a little while, stockland hasn't finished looking at them just yet.


----------



## wonderrman (26 January 2009)

roofa said:


> You may get better returns by owning bank stocks than having the money in the bank at current prices and interest rates.




Yes I know that you'll get better returns in the market compared to having it in the bank. I've all ready written that in another thread .... 



> You look at the cash rate as well in Aus and it is surely going to come down a lot. It is at about 5% now, you would think it would go down to 2 - 3% within the next few months because of interest rates (ours are 4%, UK is 1% and the US is 0%. We've still got along way to go if you believe our economy will drop as much as the US&UK) and other government factors. Then you have to factor in inflation (you would say inflation would run at 3% minimum because of all this money creation) and then the hit from the tax man. Cash would probably give you a negative return with in the next few years.
> 
> Now look at the stock market. Current yield is 8.7%, I'm going to be really conservative and say that yields are going to be halved to 4% which includes inflation. That is saying that basically company profits are going to half by 50%. You all ready have a positive return without any change to the company's stock price. Stocks will win unless you believe the market is going to go even more spastic. It is common sense. Cash is not king anymore and the argument against equity investment is not logical, unless you believe in a complete melt down.


----------



## roofa (26 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes I know that you'll get better returns in the market compared to having it in the bank. I've all ready written that in another thread ....




I specifically mentioned banks, (as your not a fan) not the market as a whole.


----------



## MR. (26 January 2009)

Julia said:


> Sorry, MR, I did miss your question.
> I have a second six month term maturing at the beginning of April this year.
> I'll continue fairly short term deposits in order to have the cash available when I'm ready to start buying again.  It may well be that it's years until we see a market recovery but I'm not prepared to bank on that for the sake of about an extra 1%, only to forfeit interest earned if the deposit is broken.
> 
> Have deposited the cash in multiple individual lots so I can gradually feed it into the market without penalty.



Multiple individual lots is a good idea. If you need or more like want to break one you will not be hit with too much of a penalty if you don't require the lot.  I'm just banking that it is some time off before I want to spend/invest tis money.   We are still at a point that interest is being offered at a fair rate and decisions need to be made.     Can lock in 3mths at 5.25 but in 3 months the best might just be 2.5% to re-invest.


----------



## BeerBaron (26 January 2009)

I think Tysonboss1 has started an interesting thread. It's pretty brave to put your most important decisions up for public review. It is excellent to see what other people think of various stocks.

No-one else has responded with a portfolio in kind (well, except for those in cash). Maybe we're all in cash. I'll be brave too. Here is mine. A bit of background first.

Was active in stock market from 1994 to 2001. Sold out completely for reasons unrelated to the sharemarket. Have held cash for several years now, and after many months of patient research I recently put 50% back into shares. How recently? Actually last Friday, in the last hour of trading. Picked up most stocks very close to their closing lows. I don't know if this is the bottom or not (hence only 50% committed) but I intend to hold most for 10-15 years. Time will tell if this was really stupid or really lucky. Here it is:

BHP 15%
CSL 10%
SHL 10%
IPL 8%
ORG 8%
QBE 8%
UGL 8%
WBC 8%
WOW 8%
WPL 8%
NHC 5%
AOE 4%

(Note % are of all stocks - at the moment stocks 50% cash 50%)

Comments?


----------



## beerwm (27 January 2009)

Hi wonderman

how can you be sure inflation is at 3%?
i havent done much research on the topic, but all i can see is deflation,
cars,electronics,commodities,oil,house prices
arent most things getting cheaper?
regarding services, i wouldnt be suprised if the reduction of mining jobs creates some oversupply.


----------



## roofa (27 January 2009)

BeerBaron said:


> I think Tysonboss1 has started an interesting thread. It's pretty brave to put your most important decisions up for public review. It is excellent to see what other people think of various stocks.
> 
> No-one else has responded with a portfolio in kind (well, except for those in cash). Maybe we're all in cash. I'll be brave too. Here is mine. A bit of background first.
> 
> ...




Good effort BB, with a 10-15 year outlook I'm sure you will be a winner.
Great stocks, obviously you have been watching and waiting for a time to strike.


----------



## wonderrman (27 January 2009)

beerwm said:


> Hi wonderman
> 
> how can you be sure inflation is at 3%?
> i havent done much research on the topic, but all i can see is deflation,
> ...




http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/measures_of_cpi.html.


----------



## nunthewiser (27 January 2009)

MTS ( long term hold in profit and divvys paid a nice chunk off)
BEN ( av entry now 9.95)
BDM  heheheheh everyone got to have a puppy  av hold 9.5
CFR (.005) recently aquired as a position trade ONLY .NOT investment (beer money only)
TRY (loss)
SBM ( 28 average)
EXT(free ride) removed all original  capital rest left to ride ( original entry 90)


65% cash

also hold YEN currency 
also hold physical gold

have other investments also


----------



## beerwm (27 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/measures_of_cpi.html.




heh, ok [we should start telling automakers to raise their prices]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=opera&rls=en&hs=x26&q=define:inflation&btnG=Search


----------



## prawn_86 (27 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/measures_of_cpi.html.




Off topic...

but Wondermann, google 'real inflation' and have a read. Some people argue that inflation is closer to 10% due to a changed consumption basket


----------



## julius (27 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> At the moment you can pick up first rate, primary companies with dominant market positions at great prices.




World class ambiguity right here. 

Great companies with great management.

Warren's been tricking you.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 January 2009)

roofa said:


> You may get better returns by owning bank stocks than having the money in the bank at current prices and interest rates.




Howso?  Higher divs which are hardly safe, diminished further by your capital loss?  

PPI out today, much much higher than expected (in relation to the CPI responses).


----------



## julius (27 January 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Off topic...
> 
> but Wondermann, google 'real inflation' and have a read. Some people argue that inflation is closer to 10% due to a changed consumption basket




Prawn, this doesn't make sense to me ?

Wouldn't a change in consumption basket suggest an upward bias in the CPI ?


----------



## prawn_86 (27 January 2009)

julius said:


> Prawn, this doesn't make sense to me ?
> 
> Wouldn't a change in consumption basket suggest an upward bias in the CPI ?




Arguement is that when CPI tracking started, they used eg 1kg of chicken breast in the basket of goods, but now they use 1kg of chicken mince. Of course the mince is going to be cheaper, therefore not properly reflecting the true/real inflation that has occured.

Even personal experiences should mirror this. Large goods can be different due to economies of scale etc, but looking at food, when i moved out 3 yrs ago we could get our fruit and veg for a week for $20 now its closer to $40.


----------



## michael_selway (27 January 2009)

BeerBaron said:


> I think Tysonboss1 has started an interesting thread. It's pretty brave to put your most important decisions up for public review. It is excellent to see what other people think of various stocks.
> 
> No-one else has responded with a portfolio in kind (well, except for those in cash). Maybe we're all in cash. I'll be brave too. Here is mine. A bit of background first.
> 
> ...




Hey not bad, u made a bit today!

Btw why did you buy NHC?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 10.8 29.6 24.0 18.7 
DPS 13.4 89.5 31.4 25.6 *



> Date: 21/1/2009
> Author: Jo Clarke; Ayesha de Kretser
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 14
> The price of coking coal is forecast to fall dramatically in 2009. The pricetripled in 2008 but Macquarie Group predicts that it will decline by 63 per centto $US110 a tonne. Steelmakers have been forced to delay or halt shipmentsbecause of the slowing of the global economy. Coal miners are meeting withJapanese steel makers in mid-January




thx

MS


----------



## roofa (27 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Howso?  Higher divs which are hardly safe, diminished further by your capital loss?
> 
> PPI out today, much much higher than expected (in relation to the CPI responses).




Howso? The comments relate to Friday purchase so I don't think there has been a capital loss as yet, as far as the dividend goes time will tell. Feel free to keep an eye on the divs and interest rates and get back in 12 months.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 January 2009)

roofa said:


> Howso? The comments relate to Friday purchase so I don't think there has been a capital loss as yet, as far as the dividend goes time will tell. Feel free to keep an eye on the divs and interest rates and get back in 12 months.




Ok.  Good luck!


----------



## BeerBaron (28 January 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hey not bad, u made a bit today!
> 
> Btw why did you buy NHC?
> 
> ...




Low cost coal miner with massive cash balance due to sale of asset (New Saraji) to BHP. Cash is to be returned to shareholders this year fully franked - hence large variation in DPS for 2009. Owns a bit of AOE which I also hold and expect to do well.

After the dividend in Nov 2009 cash balance will remain at $2.30 per share ($1.1 billion) according to management. This is one stock that will not need to go to its shareholders for extra money; indeed it will be cashed up ready for further acquisitions in a stressed market.

AOE shares are valued at about $0.30 per share. Add that to the $2.30 cash balance at end of 2009 and you get $2.60 per share. So the remainder of the share price (today at about $3.40) is about $0.80 derived from its coal business. Looking at forecast EPS for 2010-11 say about $0.20 - so that's a PE of about 4 (ie a share price of $0.80 and EPS of $0.20).

The thermal coal is from a mid-low-cost long life mine. Exports via a NHC owned port in Brisbane. NHC mines about 4.5Mt of coal at about US$30 per tonne including royalties, compared to about US$50 per tonne industry average and say US$60 per tonne average price in the next few years. Some minor production comes from older legacy mines near Toowoomba which can be rehabilitated and the land sold for commercial development.

Main shareholders Soul Pattinson (61%) Mitsubishi Materials (11%) and Perpetual (7%).

I bought it mainly for the possibility that it will gain from asset acquisition and, to a lesser extent, property redevelopment, without being a drain on shareholders. After dividend paid out in Nov 09 I expect price to drop but not by nearly as much as the dividend payment, as it will become obvious that the PE ratio is quite low.


----------



## wonderrman (28 January 2009)

julius said:


> World class ambiguity right here.
> 
> Great companies with great management.
> 
> Warren's been tricking you.




They're are plenty of good companies with great management ... FLT, WOW, SOL, CAB, PTM, etc. etc. 

You're probably a speculator though and don't pay attention to that kind of stuff. 

Prawn, I can't really be stuffed reading more about inflation so I'll stick with the government figure.


----------



## prawn_86 (28 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Prawn, I can't really be stuffed reading more about inflation so I'll stick with the government figure.




Just remember the gov only tells you what they think you want to hear...


----------



## julius (28 January 2009)

wonderrman said:


> They're are plenty of good companies with great management ... FLT, WOW, SOL, CAB, PTM, etc. etc.
> 
> You're probably a speculator though and don't pay attention to that kind of stuff.




Not true. I pay plenty of attention, but it gets under my skin when I hear people preaching the "good companies with great management" line because they heard Buffett say it. It's a completely ambiguous concept that really means nothing.

As for your picks-- I bought WOW at 11.80 when I was 16 and I still like it long term. CAB is cheap but to me it's long run prospects look poor. And I think Flight Centre is toast - the whole concept of using a travel agent as an intermediary will become redundant.


----------



## prawn_86 (28 January 2009)

julius said:


> And I think Flight Centre is toast - the whole concept of using a travel agent as an intermediary will become redundant.




*Off Topic*

I totally disagree with this. Recent figures from IBISWorld state that 85% of travel is still booked through an agent.

Sure its easy to book a domestic flight online, but when your looking international, with transfers, several flights, tours, accomodation etc etc its much easier to get a travel agent to book it then spend the time yourself doing it.

Perhaps we should take this to the FLT thread...


----------



## nunthewiser (28 January 2009)

LOL i think BNB , CNP, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc were once viewed as solid companys with great management too .LOL gotta love ppl insulting other ppls thoughts on what they think is an ideal investment

blessem


----------



## julius (28 January 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Sure its easy to book a domestic flight online, but when your looking international, with transfers, several flights, tours, accomodation etc etc its much easier to get a travel agent to book it then spend the time yourself doing it.




Prawn -- Don't forget there was resistance to online sales for domestic flights too.

It's exceptionally easy to do all of the things you're talking about using sites like Kayak, Expedia, Orbitz etc...

When you book a flight, hotel, etc through a travel agent, they look up flights on a system which is identical to the sites I listed above.

Intermediaries like Flight Centre were able to collect 'rent' in the olden' days because the search costs involved with travel information was high. This isn't the case anymore because of the internet and price comparison search engines. This means pricing becomes more competitive and causes margins to continue to shrink over time. This same process has already occurred in the insurance industry.

As online commerce continues to mature FLT will end up going the way of the VCR... (Speaking of which, I think 'video' stores like Blockbuster will end up suffering the same fate. It's already happening in the States with Netflix.)


----------



## So_Cynical (28 January 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> *Off Topic*
> 
> I totally disagree with this. Recent figures from IBISWorld state that 85% of travel is still booked through an agent.
> 
> ...




I took it as meaning bricks and mortar travel agents are toast not online one's 
WTF for the win....booking it all your self is very easy now and very rewarding 
in a personal way.

I'm in the early stages of planning a 3 week euro trip...and u start Googling, and 
just find these amazing little places.


----------



## prawn_86 (28 January 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> I took it as meaning bricks and mortar travel agents are toast not online one's
> WTF for the win....booking it all your self is very easy now and very rewarding
> in a personal way.
> 
> ...




From personal experinces, the average Joe doesnt want to bother booking themselves. They would rather go to an agent, for their once yearly holiday and say "I want to go here and do some tours. You organise it."

Obviously the more seasoned travellers can do it themselves online etc, but the vast majority still dont. Also, its a lot more time efficient to get an agent to look through all the flights etc than do it yourself. EG - my travel agent can assue me the cheapest price all i have to do is call, as opposed to spending X hours myself.

SC, why dont you check out my travel forum in my sig


----------



## Nyden (28 January 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> I took it as meaning bricks and mortar travel agents are toast not online one's
> WTF for the win....booking it all your self is very easy now and very rewarding
> in a personal way.
> 
> ...




Hmm, have to disagree. By that logic - bricks and mortar retailers will be closing too; never going to happen. Would bet everything on it.

People like to hold things, people like to flick through brochures, and sit and talk with a real person face-to-face when planning a trip! Some folk like lots of responsibility, others do not. When it comes to travel, I would opt for a personal agent any day. That way, should anything go wrong - hello insurance, and or lawsuit 

Why people want to be so self-reliant in everything these days is beyond me. If I'm sick, I'll go to a doctor, not post a question on Yahoo. If I'm going to travel, I'll see an professional, not some website located in Zimbabwe booking 1 star motels :


----------



## MRC & Co (28 January 2009)

Yeh, agree with Nyden and Prawn.

Think it's already been prooven anyways, remember the dotcom bubble?  

:bricks1:

Same concept.


----------



## So_Cynical (28 January 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> From personal experinces, the average Joe doesnt want to bother booking themselves. They would rather go to an agent.




I guess im not the average Joe...booked my last 4 trips myself including 
transfers, multiple hotels, ferry's & country's all cheaper than through an 
agent..in some cases much much cheaper.

Online and Travel just go so well togeather...its not like u walk out of a travel 
agents with a heap of stuff...its tickets and an itinerary...e tickets and online 
seat allocation is the way to go.


Agents tend to sell u whats easy and average - popular....for example try 
getting an agent to book u something on Malapascua Island.   i just 
don't get why people want McDonald's holidays?


----------



## julius (29 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Think it's already been prooven anyways, remember the dotcom bubble?




MRC,

The dot com bubble was just rampant speculation about the possibilities of online commerce without any real understanding of what it would entail.

The concept in the 90's was about a decade ahead of what consumers were willing to accept.

The realities are that it will not replace brick and mortar stores all together, but it is going to capture a significant market share of many 'homogenous' products and can do so operating at far lower margins. 

I've been in the States for 6 months now and it is already taking hold over here as a mainstream way to shop.

Nyden -- while many would agree with you, most aren't willing to pay a premium for the privilege. Remember when the petrol station attendant used to fill your car up for you ? Or think about online banking.


----------



## MRC & Co (29 January 2009)

Yep, fair points Julius.


----------



## joeyjoejoe (3 March 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Yep, fair points Julius.




dont forget

FTL has a website where you can go online and book everything to your hearts content you dont have to go into the shopfront anyway....


----------



## So_Cynical (3 March 2009)

joeyjoejoe said:


> dont forget
> 
> FTL has a website where you can go online and book everything to your hearts content you don't have to go into the shopfront anyway....




Hey joe...much discussion on this in the Flight Center thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1214&highlight=flt&page=8

You'll be surprised by what u *cannot* book online through Flight center.


----------



## roofa (2 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Howso?  Higher divs which are hardly safe, diminished further by your capital loss?
> 
> PPI out today, much much higher than expected (in relation to the CPI responses).




Mate, only just over two months have gone by and; 

NAB > 20%
ANZ > 35%
WBC > 35%
CBA > 45%

We will keep an eye on the yields but don’t be surprised if they end up over 10%.


----------



## MRC & Co (2 April 2009)

roofa said:


> Mate, only just over two months have gone by and;
> 
> NAB > 20%
> ANZ > 35%
> ...






I could have come into this thread at the start of March and asked how they were going also.

You keep those banks in your bottom drawer and we will see how they go.

Why is MQG not there and what about SUN? 

Talk about a stupid time to post again to try and proove a point about long-term investment in bank divs.

We are about to make the end of this rally IMO, so keep your eye on the ball or take some cash off the table or you may just be counting your chickens before they have hatched, unless you have MQG, then they probably just won't hatch!


----------



## roofa (3 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> I could have come into this thread at the start of March and asked how they were going also.
> 
> You keep those banks in your bottom drawer and we will see how they go.
> 
> ...




Coming back at the beginning of march would not have helped your cause as they were up from our Jan 23 buy date discussion. 
I will be keeping them in the bottom draw thanks as I enjoy the divs with that yield and that was the plan.
It was always about the big 4 as they are the ones I invested in-not interested in the others.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MRC & Co  
Howso? Higher divs which are hardly safe, diminished further by your capital loss? 

PPI out today, much much higher than expected (in relation to the CPI responses). 


With what came across as such a forthright and know all comment you were just asking for it.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> It was always about the big 4 as they are the ones I invested in-not interested in the others.
> 
> With what came across as such a forthright and know all comment you were just asking for it.




Oh, so now you choose which ones it's 'about'?  When CLEARLY your reference was related to 'banks'.  Not specifically pointing out two months later which ones had performed the best?  Good one.

Hold onto them, enjoy the ride down.  I'll make sure to remember this thread and come in and remind you at a later date when they are in the red.


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

So Oracle, when is that likely to be that I will be hearing from you again?
I’m so looking forward to getting some more advice from someone with your vast experience.

How about something of a positive nature that we could profit from?
Or how about something like this;
“Well done on your timing and investment, I was wrong”


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> How about something of a positive nature that we could profit from?
> Or how about something like this;
> “Well done on your timing and investment, I was wrong”




Here is something you can profit from.  Sell your bank stocks this wk while they are in profit!   

Well done on the profit.

People like you pizz me off because they don't specify which banks (it's easy to pick the profitable ones now, when some have taken a BEATING, and you did say afterall, *THE BANKS*), they use them as an investment, and then they come into the thread after 2 months and after a huge % rally and talk of their triumphs, when really, many banks have taken a beating and your timing of your post takes the entire arguement out of context.  

Get it, oracle?


----------



## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

Roofa mate don't forget that the banks have only followed the rally up. I'm sure if the markets begin to turn down again the banks will go down to. Hopefully you haven't spoken to soon, or you are going to look like a fool.


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

You should be pissed off, but with yourself for not listing to me.
What are the basic facts here? I said buy banks, you said bad idea.
Maybe you should have asked which ones instead of being so arrogant and forth right in your wet behind the ears view.
Now I don’t just throw things out there unless I’m putting my money where my mouth is, so here I am sitting on increases of ten of thousands of $$ just on the banks.
You’re fighting out of your weight division here Junior, but no doubt like a punch drunk fighter you’ll be back for a couple more left jabs. 

You list you’re occupation as a trader; I can only assume it is in stamps or insults, or maybe you are really talented and can do both.

BTW.  Thanks for the entertainment Lenny.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

My view for banks was not for 2 months nor was yours.  Get it?  If I asked you which ones at the time, it would have been MQG and SUN no doubt.  

I was on the rally myself, it wasn't hard to see.  And I will be on the subsequent down move too, will you? But this does not relate to the original debate of investing in banks for the average person out there.  

You've made 10s of thousands and I'm fighting outside my weight division?  Just LOL.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> You list you’re occupation as a trader; I can only assume it is in stamps or insults, or maybe you are really talented and can do both.




Ironic?  

Yes, I trade stamps.  Too young to play this stockmarket game.


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Roofa mate don't forget that the banks have only followed the rally up. I'm sure if the markets begin to turn down again the banks will go down to. Hopefully you haven't spoken to soon, or you are going to look like a fool.




Yes I've seen that you two are mates.
And yes I know you are not a fan of the banks as well, out of interest Wonderman, having you changed your position from only holding two stocks from November?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> Yes I've seen that you two are mates.
> And yes I know you are not a fan of the banks as well, out of interest Wonderman, having you changed your position from only holding two stocks from November?




Conspiracy theorist now?

I've made only a few posts to wonder and half them were a debate between us, idiot!

Wonders post was the obvious fact that you are shooting your mouth off while a trade is onside, not because we are mates.

You will ride the down move with longs, I will push it with shorts!


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> idiot!




Point the finger Lenny and you have three pointing back at yourself.

Ding, Ding.

This is better than fishing isn't it?


----------



## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

> having you changed your position from only holding two stocks from November?




I've thought long and hard mate about where I think we could be heading so I've changed my plans because of that. At the moment, I would prefer to use price action and technical analysis to move through the market, so I have. Buy and hold investing is going to be very hard to do over the next few years because of the massive volatility created in asset values because of money printing. I would prefer to make use of short term price movements in my investments at the moment. Experts can't predict where we will be in a years time using funnymentals, how am I going to? 



> Yes I've seen that you two are mates.




This comment has got me bewildered. I recall MRC and I arguing over our point of view in another thread about a month ago. I think I said MRC was delusional, I should have said you were!


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Conspiracy theorist now?




No, but now that you mention it!

Why is it that both your lights aren’t on at the same time?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> Point the finger Lenny and you have three pointing back at yourself.
> 
> Ding, Ding.
> 
> This is better than fishing isn't it?




LOL.  

If I sell the SPI today (or any market for that matter), there is a HUGE probability there will be some point in the coming months, when I am onside, should I come back and brag even if I stated it was an investment and the current trade position doesn't mean a thing in the context of my strategy?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> No, but now that you mention it!




Mate, your holding bank stocks for years as an investment. 

This is the topic, remember?


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> LOL.
> 
> If I sell the SPI today (or any market for that matter), there is a HUGE probability there will be some point in the coming months, when I am onside, should I come back and brag even if I stated it was an investment and the current trade position doesn't mean a thing in the context of my strategy?




Don’t talk about it Lenny, do it.

That’s the point; you shoot other people down with no clue of what you are talking about.
How about you show some courage and enter the comp, that might be a start.
You have even got all this month to ask around if you can’t come up with one yourself.


----------



## Sevenduolux (4 April 2009)

*Re: Rate my portfolio.*



MR. said:


> I have headed to 100% cash.
> 
> I have a very poor outlook, I'm sorry.
> 
> Don't know where to start with comments, I'll make it on the first. Macquarie Countrywide. They have 4800+ tennants.  I would buy if they only had Woolworths and Coles but is not the case.  I strongly believe they will lose many tennants and Woolworths and Coles don't pay enough rent.  Has the price been factored in enough?




Not a bad move.  I like IBM (NYSE) at $102.22


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> Don’t talk about it Lenny, do it.
> 
> That’s the point; you shoot other people down with no clue of what you are talking about.
> 
> You have even got all this month to ask around if you can’t come up with one yourself.




I do it every day champ.

Since your bank purchase, I have probably made 6000 trades, and no, not the ASF tipping comp.  

Last wk I pocketed your figure alone off both futures and stocks, but you don't see me bragging about it big fish.


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Mate, your holding bank stocks for years as an investment.
> 
> This is the topic, remember?




Here you go again,

Talking as if you know, why don’t you just ask how long I’ve had them?
Research just isn't your thing is it Lenny?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> Here you go again,
> 
> Talking as if you know, why don’t you just ask how long I’ve had them?
> Research just isn't your thing is it Lenny?




You are buying banks for yield, yes a dangerous strategy in a bear market and a global financial crisis.  Citi was a HUGE bank, as was HBOS and all the others who were not immune. 

I can see that much and hence, clearly see there is nothing to learn from you.  

Sorry.


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> I do it every day champ.
> 
> Since your bank purchase, I have probably made 6000 trades, and no, not the ASF tipping comp.
> 
> Last wk I pocketed your figure alone off both futures and stocks, but you don't see me bragging about it big fish.




You just did. LOL.

FOS Lenny.

I reckon you have about enough for a junior burger meal deal, if your lucky.



BTW. When did I purchase? Again you are just making figures up.


----------



## roofa (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> You are buying banks for yield, yes a dangerous strategy in a bear market and a global financial crisis.  Citi was a HUGE bank, as was HBOS and all the others who were not immune.
> 
> I can see that much and hence, clearly see there is nothing to learn from you.
> 
> Sorry.




What have they got to do with our big 4 Lenny?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

roofa said:


> You just did. LOL.
> 
> FOS Lenny.
> 
> I reckon you have about enough for a junior burger meal deal, if your lucky.




Ok big fish.  I really do just trade in stamps, that's what my company funds me for.  

It's not just about when you bought, when your going to sell is a big element and involves a stop loss to minimise risk and a profit target.   

My point is and always was, for the average punter, buying a bank for yield is not a safe strategy in this current climate, I know many who wish they didn't and until you sell, you may end up one of them too.


----------



## nunthewiser (4 April 2009)

im confused?

who is lenny ?


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> im confused?
> 
> who is lenny ?




LOL.

I think wonder got it right, this guy is dilusional.  His gone way off the beaten track.  Infact I don't even know what we are argueing about anymore.



But GL with your banks, I hope the market keeps on heading up and up!


----------



## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> LOL.
> 
> I think wonder got it right, this guy is dilusional.  His gone way off the beaten track.  Infact I don't even know what we are argueing about anymore.




Yep this guy is speaking crazy talk. Think he needs to book himself into his local psychologist. 

w


----------



## MR. (5 April 2009)

*Re: Rate my portfolio.*



Sevenduolux said:


> Not a bad move.  I like IBM (NYSE) at $102.22



What?........ I'm hearing things from a far off place........ 

Ok, maybe it was a bad move over the last month. 
Hey, ya related to roofa by any chance?


----------



## Tysonboss1 (17 July 2009)

MR. said:


> I have headed to 100% cash.
> 
> I have a very poor outlook, I'm sorry.
> 
> Don't know where to start with comments, I'll make it on the first. Macquarie Countrywide. They have 4800+ tennants.  I would buy if they only had Woolworths and Coles but is not the case.  I strongly believe they will lose many tennants and Woolworths and Coles don't pay enough rent.  Has the price been factored in enough?






wonderrman said:


> Sorry but I'm not really a massive fan of your portfolio either. It's a pretty ugly portfolio really.






Gerkin said:


> Tyson Boss
> - You have no consumer staples or healthcare exposure, may i ask who created this portfolio? If it was a broker i would be giving them the lemonade and sars.




Well a few months later and the portfolio hasn't done such a bad job,

The Stand out performer being MCW which was my largest holding up 300%.


----------



## XavierZ (28 July 2009)

mine is always changing but currently

Cochlear
Telstra
Alumina
Beach
CSL
Dexus

waiting for dips - RIO, QBE, ANN, ROC, IPL


----------



## ScuttleFish (28 July 2009)

How does look fellas? I have no idea what i am doing, but yea up on about 30k overall and wondering if i shud sell now and wait for a dip again?  any ideas?

ANZ		8%
AWC		8%
CSL		14%
LNG		2%
NHC		24.5%
OZL		5%
RIO		15%
SBM		<1%
TLS		18%


----------



## Jonfrodo (3 November 2009)

How about this one:What do you all think?

Yes I am bullish on AHE. Great company!

AHG LTD FPO [AHE]	                15.95%
ANZ BANK FPO [ANZ]	                13.40%
AWB	                                         1.73%
BHP BLT FPO [BHP]	                10.84%
BLUESCOPE FPO [BSL]	                 4.43%
INCITEC PV FPO [IPL]	                 3.84%
ELDERS (ELD)	                         1.30%
KRESTA FPO [KRS]	                 2.89%
MACQ OFFICE UNIT [MOF]	         4.62%
QBE INSUR. FPO [QBE]	                 5.23%
RIO TINTO FPO [RIO]	                 9.17%
TELSTRA FPO [TLS]	                 2.86%
WESTPAC FPO [WBC]	                 3.82%
WESTFIELDG STAPLED [WDC]	         3.61%
WESFARMER FPO [WES]	         8.16%
WOODSIDE FPO [WPL]	                 8.26%


----------



## fodder-oz (3 November 2009)

elders is a dog wouldnt touch it with a 10 foot pole


----------



## Julia (3 November 2009)

fodder-oz said:


> elders is a dog wouldnt touch it with a 10 foot pole



I'm also curious about why you'd choose Elders?
Would also be waiting for IPL to resume an uptrend before buying.


----------



## jc_trader (7 November 2009)

Hi Guys, 

I'm fairly new to the markets and currently have the following in my portfolio (yes quite a few speccies):  

NATLEI&GAM FPO [NLG]	15%
CENTRO. STAPLED [CNP]	9%
BLUESCOPE FPO [BSL]	8%
BHP BLT FPO [BHP]	             8%
REPUB GOLD FPO [RAU]	7%
ANZ BANK FPO [ANZ]	7%
MACQ GROUP FPO [MQG]	6%
SIGMAPHARM FPO [SIP]	6%
ARISTOCRAT FPO [ALL]	6%
ADMIRALTY FPO [ADY]	5%
OZMINER FPO [OZL]	4%
CROWN FPO [CWN]	4%
PANORAMIC FPO [PAN]	4%
CITYVIEW FPO [CVI]	3%
BOART FPO [BLY]	             2%
SMARTTRANS FPO [SMA]	2%
AUST MINES FPO [AUZ]	2%

Any comments?


----------



## So_Cynical (8 November 2009)

I suppose what u paid for them is relevant.


----------



## gooner (8 November 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> I suppose what u paid for them is relevant.




Disagree.

How is cost relevant to whether it is a good portfolio at the moment? Right now what is important is where the share prices are going in the future.


----------



## MR. (8 November 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> My share holdings are listed below from largest to smallest.
> 
> Macquarie country wide     MCW - 21.74 %
> Sims Metal Management     SGM - 20.06 %
> ...






Tysonboss1 said:


> Well a few months later and the portfolio hasn't done such a bad job,
> 
> The Stand out performer being MCW which was my largest holding up 300%.




MCW is at a 200% profit. Not bad at all.....
Did some calc's on your portfolio's return to date, assuming that it is still left untouched. The shares have returned 85% on the investment.
Good job.
Early on this portfolio was looked apon as not the best.  



BeerBaron said:


> I intend to hold most for 10-15 years. Time will tell if this was really stupid or really lucky. Here it is:
> 
> BHP 15%
> CSL 10%
> ...




The above portfolio was looked apon as a better choice. 
The return on investment in shares has been 26%. 

Not a bad return 26% still. Must add both are a hell of a lot better than just 4%.

Looking back you question why didn't I do that. Was it just Luck? Maybe not!

Off topic. 
In a few weeks time a property, I sold ,a year ago (with no thanks to the agent), is auctioned again. It was a property I spent a couple of years on near full time. It was sold not at a loss (because we owned it for 7 years) but was well below what it was worth pre Oct08. Now one year on, with not a thing touch on the property, and it looks like it may be sold for a $200K profit for the new owners tax free. It was my hard work, but mismanaged.
Now that is going to hurt.....

Perhaps saved by interest rates dropping to near half and cash hand outs. 
I don't know... 



gooner said:


> Right now what is important is where the share prices are going in the future.




Not saying you were, but don't ask me. :cwm10:


----------



## So_Cynical (8 November 2009)

gooner said:


> Disagree.
> 
> How is cost relevant to whether it is a good portfolio at the moment? Right now what is important is where the share prices are going in the future.




gooner please...your saying that what was paid to buy XYZ is not relevant?
following that logic it probably doesn't matter what XYZ is sold for.

As stock market investors we get to made 4 decisions 


How many shares we buy in XYZ
How much we pay per share of XYZ
How long we hold XYZ
How much we sell our XYZ shares for

Our profit/success is completely determined by the above


----------



## Julia (8 November 2009)

When people are quoting percentage return on their holdings, unless you supply the date they were purchased, it's a bit meaningless imo.

30% return is obviously good if the stock has only been held a couple of months, but less than impressive if you've had it for several years.


----------



## gooner (8 November 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> gooner please...your saying that what was paid to buy XYZ is not relevant?
> following that logic it probably doesn't matter what XYZ is sold for.
> 
> As stock market investors we get to made 4 decisions
> ...




Of course it matters what the shares are sold for as does the composition of the portfolio. These are things that can be changed. The price paid can not be changed, so is irrelevant in considering whether to hold existing portfolio or change it.

I may have paid $100 for Macquarie shares, which are now $50. Is the $100 relevant to whether I should buy more, hold or sell the Macquarie shares.

If I had paid $15 for those shares, would my decision as to whether to  buy more, hold or sell be different? Why?

Obviously ignoring tax flows.........


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 November 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I thought I would post a thread where people could list their current share holdings for others to comment on. I thought this would be a good platform to share infomation and ideas of different combinations of stocks, and it would be good to see where people are heading in todays maket.
> 
> I have listed my holdings as of friday the 23rd of jan 09, I welcome any comments, thoughts or opinions both postive and negative, and hope others will also share their own holdings.
> 
> ...




It is interesting that most peoples portfolios fall in the first half of the alphabet.

There is so much opportunity in the second half that folk like me tending to be contrary focus on.

You only have 2 stocks after the letter M.

This is a common Broker's fallacy although please don't take this as criticism as I haven't read the thread to see how you chose these stocks.

gg


----------



## gooner (8 November 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is interesting that most peoples portfolios fall in the first half of the alphabet.
> 
> There is so much opportunity in the second half that folk like me tending to be contrary focus on.
> 
> ...




Good point GG,

Must admit, when looking at stocks, I start at A and give up round about M.

Perhaps I should start at Z and work backwards?


----------



## lazyfish (8 November 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is interesting that most peoples portfolios fall in the first half of the alphabet.
> 
> There is so much opportunity in the second half that folk like me tending to be contrary focus on.
> 
> ...




Interesting observation. There are 654 companies listed in the 'Materials' category. 418 starts with A-M, and only 236 starts with N-Z. 84 of them starts with A. 

Would be interesting to see if these 236 actually give better returns.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 November 2009)

gooner said:


> Good point GG,
> 
> Must admit, when looking at stocks, I start at A and give up round about M.
> 
> Perhaps I should start at Z and work backwards?




Thats what I do.

I usually stop at RIO lol.

gg


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 November 2009)

MR. said:


> MCW is at a 200% profit. Not bad at all.....
> Did some calc's on your portfolio's return to date, assuming that it is still left untouched. The shares have returned 85% on the investment.
> Good job.
> Early on this portfolio was looked apon as not the best.
> ...




Yeah it's been a good run, I have had a few good wins the past year. My main Gains have been on the back of MCW, Beppa, AHE, SGM, CBA, and APA most of which I loaded up after the original post.

over the year I hope to see growth from a holding I have taken in MDT 10.5c, BPT 77c, and WDC which is now my largest holding which I have bought between $11.40 and $13.36, yes I am currently in the red on the wdc so far but that tends to happen to me..lol.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 November 2009)

Jonfrodo said:


> Yes I am bullish on AHE. Great company!




Yep AHE is one of my favourites too, 

There is much to like about this company when you really take a good look at the fundamentals of it's businesses, How ever most people breeze over this company and fail to see the value.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (29 November 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is interesting that most peoples portfolios fall in the first half of the alphabet.
> 
> There is so much opportunity in the second half that folk like me tending to be contrary focus on.
> 
> ...




If I find a company that is good value I am not going to skip it just because my portfolio already has stocks in that part of the alphabet.

The companies that I have invested in I have bought because I can understand their businesses and believe they represented good value at the time of purchase, I don't normally buy with the intention selling in the shorterm I am quite happy to wait for the market to recognize the value especially if the dividends are good in the mean time.


----------

