# GNS - Gunns Limited



## Smurf1976 (24 June 2005)

GNS (Gunns) has taken off like a rocket over the past few days.

I am aware that this company is controversial due to woodchipping - I'll leave judgements there to individuals to decide. It also has interests in vineyards and hardware retailing and a proposed pulp mill in Tasmania.

One stage of the public consultation period for the pulp mill has now ended and presumably explains the share price rise.

As part of the pulp mill proposal, GNS has announced a 550% increase in the area of land required. Officially this is for a buffer zone etc. around the mill. My personal thoughts in view of this and the location chosen for the mill is that the extra land is _probably_ to enable the construction of a paper machine on site at a later stage. Whilst increasing the overall impact, paper production would tend to enhance the political and (for many) public appeal of the project.

A brief summary of the objections being raised to the proposed mill and my comments (mine not GNS') on them is as follows (this is all non-financial comment so stop reading if you just want to check out the share price. As I said, it's going up):

1. Dioxin emissions. The mill will produce small amounts of dioxin as a waste product. This will be discharged into Bass Strait via an ocean pipeline. Waste will NOT be dumped in the Tamar River as opponents assert.

Comment: Dioxin from pulp mills has been almost totally eliminated in recent years. The emission levels would be a very small fraction of those of the pulp mill which operated at Burnie (Tas) from 1938-1998. The Wesley Vale mill also used a chlorine bleaching process (the source of dioxins) until recently and did not appear to cause problems.

The major source of human exposure to dioxin in the Tamar Valley is thought to be domestic woodheater emissions. Air quality in the region fails national standards with domestic woodheaters known to be responsible for in the order of 95% of particle emissions. Motor vehicles are also a significant source of dioxin with desktop studies during the late 1980's suggesting that Tasmania's motor vehicles emit 10 times the dioxin that a pulp mill proposed at the time would emit. The mill proposed by GNS would emit a minor fraction of that previously proposed mill.

2. "I don't believe that only steam will come out of the boiler stacks".

Comment: Buring of the waste black liquor is standard pulp industry practice. It is valuable as an energy source. It is no more toxic or hazardous than the combustion of other fuels and with modern boiler designs will NOT emit visible smoke. It is generally regarded as a relatively clean energy source and does not contribute to global warming. It is renewable (unlike gas, oil, coal). The mill will be completely self powered from this source apart from during startups following maintenance shutdowns etc. Surplus energy will be fed into the grid where it will displace electricity from fossil fuels.

As previously stated, air pollution in the region is almost exclusively the result of domestic woodheaters.

3. The mill will use a lot of water and supplies are not adequate.

Comment: GNS proposes a dam to supply water to the mill. 50km away from the mill site, Northern Tasmania receives the outflow of the Poatina Power Station (hydro-electric) which diverts water which would naturally flow south towards Hobart. Flows in the Tamar River are thus well above natural levels particularly during Summer. Trevallyn Dam, another hydro scheme in suburban Launceston, has available far more water than the mill could possibly use. If necessary, a 50km pipeline could connect this major water source to the mill although GNS does not consider this to be necessary on the basis that its propsed smaller dam should be adequate.

In short, there is no problem with water - just a matter of building the infrastructure which GNS proposes to do.

4. The mill will use native timbers.

Comment: The issue of logging is separate to the mill itself. The proposed mill involves processing of timber that is presently exported unprocessed and does not involve additional logging. In the past, the economic solution to the loss of major development projects in Tasmania has been to _increase_ logging as an alternative industry. 40% of the land mass of Tasmania is parks and reserves including the large World Heritage Area.

5. The mill will impact local residents and real estate values.

Comment: The proposed mill is located at Bell Bay. The entire area is zoned "Major impact heavy industrial" and residential development is prohibited. The aluminium smelter (Comalco (Rio Tinto)) opened in 1955, the TEMCO ferro-alloy plant (BHP Billiton) opened in 1962 and the Bell Bay Power Station opened in 1971. Also in the area are a major port, fuel terminal, and Medium Density Fibreboard manufacturing plant. An automotive wheel casting plant operated at Bell Bay some years ago. The proposed mill is on the same site as the existing wood processing mills and ship loading facility operated by GNS.

Objections from "local" residents thus seem to be rather questionable. A bit like living next to an airport and complaing about planes. The area has been promoted as heavy industrial since immediately after World War II. Directly opposite on the other side of the Tamar River is an operating gold mine.

6. The stack is too high.

Comment: The proposed height of the chimney stack is 120 metres. This is the exact same height as the nearby Bell Bay Power Station and is relatively short for an industrial stack (it doesn't need to be too high when not much is going to come out). This is considerably shorter than the stack at Newport (Melbourne). The stacks at Loy Yang (Vic) are more than twice this height. Likewise that stacks at Bayswater, Eraring (both NSW), Tarong, Callide (both Qld) etc. are higher than 120m.

7. It will look ugly.

Comment: It's a heavy industrial zone, what did anyone expect? The power station, wood mills, fibreboard plant, aluminium smelter, ferro-alloy plant, port and bulk fuel storage aren't exactly objects of beauty either.

As I have stated, judge for yourself the merits or otherwise of this company and it's projects. I am simply alerting those interested to the share price action and outlining the major public issues that have been raised so far, most of which seem of a political rather than factual or scientific nature.


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## markrmau (15 August 2005)

*Re: GNS*

I bought in at $3.60 this morning. 

The Japanese are going to need plenty of those little wooden disposable chopsticks to eat their whale meat with.


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## markrmau (19 August 2005)

*Re: GNS*

I closed this position for minimal ($200) profit because someone is unwinding a massive long position through a program trade.

Looking to re-enter when they have sold themselves out.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (17 October 2005)

*GNS - Gunns*

This has really gone down this year. Does anyone see this turning around?


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## Julia (17 October 2005)

*Re: GNS*

The sector has seen a significant downturn this year, particularly Great Southern Plantations which I hold.  Gt Southern has taken off in the last few days (up 17%) last week.  I just had a look at a chart for Timbercorp and it has also gone up, though not dramatically.

What I'm wondering is that the sector seems to go in and out of favour, and maybe the time has come for the market to like it again.  Gt Southern's rise I think was sparked by an alteration in the terms of the TREES3  issue.

Julia


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## It's Snake Pliskin (17 October 2005)

*Re: GNS*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> The sector has seen a significant downturn this year, particularly Great Southern Plantations which I hold.  Gt Southern has taken off in the last few days (up 17%) last week.  I just had a look at a chart for Timbercorp and it has also gone up, though not dramatically.
> 
> What I'm wondering is that the sector seems to go in and out of favour, and maybe the time has come for the market to like it again.  Gt Southern's rise I think was sparked by an alteration in the terms of the TREES3  issue.
> 
> Julia




Julia,

Maybe it's because of the low P/E of this sector that they are now starting to take off. Willmott forests has really dissapointed this year as has Gunns. Something is up that's for sure.

Snake


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## Smurf1976 (17 October 2005)

*Re: GNS*

The media in Tasmania has been saying that GNS woodchip sales volumes are down. Not sure by how much though (but it's enough to be news worthy).


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## mime (31 January 2006)

*GUNNS LIMITED*

Anyone know why this stock is on a downward trend? With timber becoming more and more expensive with demand growing and a PE of around 10 I would have thought this stock was a winner. Maybe it's a good buy now?


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## Alfie (1 February 2006)

Maybe it was caused by the neg import figures of wood in Jap (around the 14th of Jan), and lower forecasts for Jap imports? + one of the big traders exited the market.


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## Julia (1 February 2006)

Saw a few days ago where one of the plantations was affected by bushfires, can't remember who it was except that it wasn't Great Southern Plantations which is where my interest lies.  The company was trying to hose down the situation (no pun was actually intended), said they had adequate fire insurance etc., but that could be why the stock is affected.  It has also been noticeable that Great Southern has risen sharply the last few days.

Julia


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 March 2006)

It could be an interesting day for GNS today.  :band 

Technically it could be starting to turn - long term. I`m not bottom picking but there seems to be some support of late. Yesterday`s close sets up for a good day today if volume wishes to support it. Time will tell.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 March 2006)

:samurai: Bought 2500 units today at $2.86


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## It's Snake Pliskin (4 March 2006)

:bs: Well it ended up 1.4% or 4 cents another good close. Higher lows and more volume on up days will be welcome.  
It goes ex-div on 20th March - 6 cents. Not much but a little extra incentive.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 March 2006)

Another good day volume wise and price wise. Volume in the last hour was high and it ended at the high. There is a small uptrend now in place which is motivating now seeing a better volume day.
$2.97 
3,900,000 odd shares traded.

 :alien2:


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 March 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> :samurai: Bought 2500 units today at $2.86




Sold at $3.03 today. 
Sellers are queing up.....I see $3.06 as resistance but the sellers queing may not permit this on Friday. I`m out to reassess before it implodes.:alien2:


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## mime (10 March 2006)

They are having a legal battle with a group of greenies. If court rules in favor of gunns it could have a nice effect on the share price.


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## Smurf1976 (18 March 2006)

The Tasmanian state election is today. The outcome could have significant implications for GNS activities.

Both Labor and Liberal are supportive of GNS and its forestry activities, including the pulp mill (though Labor support is said to be conditional on it meeting environmental approvals whereas Liberal support for the pulp mill appears to be unconditional).

But the Tasmanian election is not simply a Labor versus Liberal contest.

Realistically, all polls indicate that the Liberals have no chance whatsoever of forming majority government in Tasmania. Locals are still wary of the big borrowing, selling hospital equipment etc that they are associated with in this state. And no doubt some will not trust their claim that they would not sell the Hydro if elected (an issue over which a great many Tasmanians hold very strong views). It is worth noting that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the business lobby backs Labor in Tasmania. The Mercury newspaper (only newspaper in Hobart) has also backed Labor via its editorials.

So the question is whether Labor is re-elected with a majority or loses its majority and forms government with the Greens. Whilst theoretically possible, a Labor-Liberal coalition is presumably off the agenda if for no reason other than that doing so would firmly establish the Greens as the major opposition with a future chance at majority government, a postion very strongly opposed by both Labor and Liberal.

A majority Labor government would mean business as usual for GNS. A minority with the Greens is potentially disastrous for GNS.

I do not intend this as a political comment as such, but the Greens have a long history of stopping at nothing to have their policies implemented and this goes right back to the very beginnings of what is now the Australian Greens. They have already stated that they will do this again if part of a minority government. Their key issue relates directly to curtailing the activities of GNS and stopping the proposed pulp mill. It is foreseeable that they would bring down any minority government which refused to meet their demands.

Realistically, if a minority government is formed then I do not expect it to last. It will work until some critical issue, quite likely one involving GNS, makes the situation unworkable and effectively forces a new election. Probably within 30 months IMO but of course this is speculation on my part (but backed up by the history of the previous Labor-Green (1989-92) and Liberal-Green (1996-98) governments).

Given the nature of the expected outcome, it is possible that every single vote will need to be counted before it is clear who will form government. According to the media, this could take literally two weeks given the need to count postal votes, Antarctic base occupants' votes etc. Of course they're all always counted, but with the election predicted to be close it may not be possible to assume who has won until all are counted. 

I'll update this thread later this evening according to the election results so far. Labor needs 13 or 25 seats (in 5 electorates) to win outright.


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## RichKid (18 March 2006)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> The Tasmanian state election is today. The outcome could have significant implications for GNS activities.
> ...




Timely post considering the technical picture for GNS too, trying to take off from that bottom, looking forward to your updates Smurf.


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## Smurf1976 (18 March 2006)

Tasmanian election result as at 10:30 pm daylight savings time. 80 - 90% of the vote counted.

In short, *Labor has won majority government*. Premier Paul Lennon has claimed victory. 14 seats, maybe 15 is ABC commentator's best guess. Slight fall in overall Labor vote. Made comments about health, children and Aboriginal reconcilliation as being goals in addition to maintaining strong economy, jobs etc. Also gave the football scores!

Liberal leader Rene Hidding has conceeded defeat. Stated that "the people always get it right" and he accepts the result despite it not being to his liking. Made comment to the effect that if Labor is to be in government then it is good that they have a majority. Party leadership to be discussed. 7 maybe 8 seats is ABC commentator's best guess. Slight rise in overall Liberal vote ends 14 years of declining Liberal vote according to Senator Eric Abetz's comment on ABC TV.

Greens have 3 seats (ABC commentator's best guess). Greens leader Peg Putt made speech accusing vested interests of campaigning against Greens and did not conceed defeat as such. Claimed that election was Gunns verus the Greens and that "Gunns has won". I do not agree with that claim since health was a far more prominent issue than forestry / pulp mill. Greens supporters waved party logo placards constantly including next to Labor and Liberal leaders during their speeches.

So no change overall but Labor has a few new members due to retirements etc whilst the Liberals do seem to have bottomed. The fall in Greens support suggests that oppostion to the pulp mill is not particularly strong (notable that the Greens performed best in the Hobart city electorate of Denison and poorly in Bass where the proposed mill is located).

There is now no significant political hurdle to Gunns' proposed pulp mill apart from protesters on site etc assuming that is passes the regulatory assessments and that GNS is actually serious about building it.


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## bunyip (19 March 2006)

Folks

I've come late to this discussion, having only joined the forum about two weeks ago. 
For the last nine months or so you've been discussing Gunns fundamentals,  forming opinions about the company's future prospects and future stock price direction, and some of you have been taking positions here and there. 
What intrigues me is that the stock has been in a clearly defined downtrend for most of this time. Sure its put in a some rallies along the way, but these rallies have been within the context of a clearly defined weekly downtrend.
So my question to you all is this......why the heck do you buy downtrending stocks?
I guess your answer would be something along the lines of "Because the stock will go up sooner of later if it's fundamentals are good".
And my response would be...."Maybe, maybe not - but why not buy stocks that are strongly uptrending RIGHT NOW, rather than stocks that may or may not uptrend at some time in the future".

Except for the hiccup back in October, the overall market has been strongly bullish over the 9 months or so that you've been discussing GNS. In a strong bull market there are dozens, even hundreds of stocks that are powering upward in nice sustainable uptrends. It doesn't take a university degree to figure out that these stocks are likely to perform much better than a downtrender like GNS.

Another case in point is CMQ, which is discussed in a different thread on this forum. This thread was started in 2004 when CMQ was above $2 but was in a powerful downtrend. Without going into details, suffice to say that some of our members appeared keen on this stock for a variety of fundamental reasons. 
Someone said he considered it a buy below $2. 
The stock has downtrended pretty much ever since and is now trading at around 48c.
This shows what can happen if you buy downtrending stocks because you think they're fundamentally sound or undervalued.
The fact is that neither you nor I nor anyone else knows the price at which a stock is good buying. The brokers don't know either, in spite of their highly paid research analysts.
Our opinion about the future direction of a stock is completely irrelevant UNLESS the market agrees with us. Likewise, our opinion of what is 'good value' or 'fair value' is irrelevant if the market doesn't agree with us.

Downtrends tend to continue longer than we expect, as do uptrends. Therefore it stands to reason that a downtrender carries larger loss potential than we thought, and an uptrender carries greater profit potential than we thought. 
Here is one of the most profit-enhancing pieces of advice that any trader or investor can ever embrace.........
"Don't spend your time searching for stocks that you think will go up at some time in the future. Focus your efforts instead on finding those that are already going up RIGHT NOW."

Bunyip


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## michael_selway (19 March 2006)

bunyip said:
			
		

> Folks
> 
> I've come late to this discussion, having only joined the forum about two weeks ago.
> For the last nine months or so you've been discussing Gunns fundamentals,  forming opinions about the company's future prospects and future stock price direction, and some of you have been taking positions here and there.
> ...




Hi Bunyip, interesting point

IMO, following the trend is only good around the beginning of a bull market. When the market is "toppy", like now All Ords 5000+, u should look for stocks that have been hit bad which may give a better return (if "fundamentals" are still good) over stocks that are uptrending

Btw do u think GTP and EXL are "clearly defined downtrending" stocks?

thx

MS


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## It's Snake Pliskin (19 March 2006)

bunyip said:
			
		

> Folks
> 
> I've come late to this discussion, having only joined the forum about two weeks ago.
> For the last nine months or so you've been discussing Gunns fundamentals,  forming opinions about the company's future prospects and future stock price direction, and some of you have been taking positions here and there.
> ...




Just to make you feel better: 5.60% 7 day trade! Go stick your opinion :fu:


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## RichKid (19 March 2006)

I agree wholeheartedly with Bunyip's great post, but then I'm biased as I'm a trader. 

An important question is: is GNS in a downtrend? Imo it's overall long term trend is bullish (see monthly chart) and short term it's up (or arguably sideways- see daily chart), medium term (last year- see weekly chart) is down.

Note that the downtrend resistance line has been broken and supporting volume has increased. Still a riskier trade as there is no powerful uptrend in place yet. TA theory also says that once a trend is in place (recent year's trend is clearly down) then it takes overwhelming evidence to the contrary to say it's ended. I think we have that evidence here with the buying volume and higher lows and break of the resistance line. So, imo, d/t has ended but has the new uptrend started? This appears to be that choppy period between an old trend ending and a new one commencing. Another view is that this is a pause in a powerful downtrend, althought I doubt that very much on the evidence as momentum has slowed far too much. 

Bunyip's caution from what I see is that if you're hitching a ride on a fast tram going down the hill, chances are it'll take you further down...it takes a lot of energy to slow it, stop it and then turn it around and get it going uphill fast again.

Eitherway, it's good to know that some can make money regardless of whether they follow this technical view, there have been valid short term signals in this stock for short term traders, lucky or skillful long term buyers could have opened positions there too, so well done Snake!


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## bunyip (19 March 2006)

Hi Michael

I note your comment that...... 'following the trend is only good around the beginning of a bull market'.
Let's find out by having a look at a couple of stocks.

NAB is presently in an uptrend that began in August 04....(a full 17 months after the All Ords started it's current bullish trend.) A dyed in the wool long term investor could have bought NAB a month or two after August 04, once its new uptrend was confirmed, and if he follwed the weekly chart (as long term investors should) he'd be still riding the trend today.
While the weekly NAB trend has been consistently upward since August 04, over the same period the daily trend has deviated from the weekly trend on a number of occasions. The dyed in the wool TRADER (as opposed to investor) had numerous opportunities to buy NAB each time the daily trend got back in tune with the weekly trend. The most recent of these opportunities was on 20/1/06 when NAB broke above resistance on heavy volume. The price rise since then has been in the order of 12%, which is not bad for a big blue chip in just two months or so.

Another example is NCM, which is a stock that you and I discussed in another thread. Similar story to NAB.....back in November last year NCM was a buy when it's daily trend got back into line with it's weekly trend. It then offered a nice profit opportunity of more than 20% before it's present downtrend set in. Its interesting to note that NCM's buy signal back in November was more than two and a half years after the overall market turned bullish at the outbreak of the Gulf war.

I could name you dozens of other uptrending stocks that gave buy signals months and even years after the bull market began, and these buy signals have resulted in very profitable opportunities for both traders and longer term investors alike.

I also note your comment of......'u should look for stocks that have been hit bad which may give a better return (if "fundamentals" are still good) over stocks that are uptrending'.
I think that's a pretty sound policy, PROVIDING you wait for them to start uptrending before you buy them. 
Think about it. Can you pick bottoms? 
If you named me six stocks that have good fundamentals, but have been hit hard, and I said to you "OK Michael, tell me the price at which these stocks will bottom out".
How many correct answers do you think you'd give me? My guess is that your score would be zero out of six. And if you asked me the same question I wouldn't score any better than you

Consider this.....
1.  We don't know how far a stock will fall.
2. Most downtrending stocks (even those that are fundamentally sound) will fall further than we think.
3. If we buy a stock we can only make money if it goes up (irrespective of how good it's fundamentals are.)

Now, considering these three points......If your policy is to buy fundamentally sound stocks that have been hit hard, it clearly makes sense to wait for these stocks to begin uptrending BEFORE you buy them.
The most serious shortcoming of fundamental analysis is that it lacks a timimg element. This shortcoming can be addressed by combining trend analysis with fundamental analysis.

In relation to your question........'Btw do u think GTP and EXL are "clearly defined downtrending" stocks?'

GTP weekly trend is up and it's daily trend is sideways.
EXL weekly trend is sideways and it's daily trend is down.

Finally.....Most stock market players only look at daily charts. Since there are 5 trading days in a week, if you look at both daily and weekly charts your perspective will be five times greater than that of your opposition.

Bunyip


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## bunyip (19 March 2006)

There are profit opportunities all over the place, even under less than ideal conditions. Snake proved it by buying a stock when it's daily trend was sideways and it's longer term trend was down, yet still making a handy little quick profit

However, the fact remains that the best buying opportunites and the largest profits are offered by strongly uptrending stocks.

Some of us are willing to trade under less than ideal conditions. 
Some of us try to trade when conditions are dead against us. 
Some of us like to stack the odds in our favour by trading only the class A setus where everything lines up perfectly.

Because the market offers us more opportunities than we can possibly utilise, my thinking is that is makes good sense to cherry pick the opportunities and choose only the very best ones.

Bunyip


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## Dutchy3 (19 March 2006)

Not a buy for me, I have on the watchlist.

The worst appears to be past for this stock. The volume and price activity of 10/02/06 sticks out too much not to be significant. Getting close for a small anchor LONG position


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## RichKid (19 March 2006)

Dutchy, 
Watch for the exDiv drop on Monday, about 6c plus the franking figure (fully franked). Not sure if the Tassie election result will change that. Tried to enter this a few weeks ago but missed out, better chance in the next week or two imo.


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## Julia (19 March 2006)

Bunyip

Thanks for some interesting and useful posts.

Do you have any comments re my apparently considerable talent for watching an uptrend long enough to feel safe to enter, then within days it goes into a downtrend?  

If the stock is a blue chip consistent performer obviously I'm not going to be concerned, but it is irritating when it happens with a company with fewer long term credentials.

Julia


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## It's Snake Pliskin (19 March 2006)

bunyip said:
			
		

> There are profit opportunities all over the place, even under less than ideal conditions. Snake proved it by buying a stock when it's daily trend was sideways and it's longer term trend was down, yet still making a handy little quick profit
> 
> However, the fact remains that the best buying opportunites and the largest profits are offered by strongly uptrending stocks.
> 
> ...




Good points Bunyip. :bounce: 

With regards to GNS it has had more money flow into it then sell out it recently. Breaking $3.10 will be watched with interest. Ex-div tomorrow see how it fares.


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## bunyip (19 March 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Bunyip
> 
> Thanks for some interesting and useful posts.
> 
> ...




Greetings Julia

It sure is frustrating when you buy a stock that appears to have begun uptrending in earnest, but shortly after your entry the damn thing turns around and starts heading south.
I know so little about your trading sytle that it really is difficult for me to comment on why those stocks are going against you once you enter. 
For example, I don't know your method of trend identification, or if you place any importance on measuring the strength of the trend, rather than just buying into any old uptrend. And I don't know your entry setup, or even if you have one.

Some stocks tend to trend in a relatively stable manner.  Others are far more choppy. I like to focus on the larger more liquid stocks whose uptrends are strong (as measured by technical indicators) and buy them after the first retracement during the new uptrend. That's not to say you can't buy them on subsequent retracements if you happen to miss the first one.
By zeroing in on the strong trenders and buying them at strategic times (after a pullback) you reduce the likelyhood of them going againt you shortly after you enter. But of course you can't eliminate the possibility altogether. That's why you need stop loss orders to ensure your loss is kept small if the trade doesn't work out.
If you add to the equation a rule for letting your profits run, you find that you can lose more than you win, and still make good money.
Not that you'd expect to lose more than you'd win.

Cheers
Bunyip


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 March 2006)

It`s bullish today shaking off the dividend and breaking $3.10 easily. It has come back down and interesting to see where it ends.


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## RichKid (21 March 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> It`s bullish today shaking off the dividend and breaking $3.10 easily. It has come back down and interesting to see where it ends.




I was watching this too, checked price this am before open and since it showed strength- which I didn't really expect, I thought it would come back down- I placed an order at 3.15- got filled at 3.13.
My stop is just below $3 (about 4.8% gross loss of initial position), I expect quite a few others would have placed stops there too, a high risk entry imo but I can always have another stab at this if I'm wrong.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 March 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> I was watching this too, checked price this am before open and since it showed strength- which I didn't really expect, I thought it would come back down- I placed an order at 3.15- got filled at 3.13.
> My stop is just below $3 (about 4.8% gross loss of initial position), I expect quite a few others would have placed stops there too, a high risk entry imo but I can always have another stab at this if I'm wrong.





Richkid,
I would say it is not as risky now because it has more going for it technically than the last breakouts. Moving averages have been breached and left behind, volume is up as is positive money into the stock, and it has ignored the ex-div day effect in an extremely bullish way.

You should see $3.30 in the short term if it keeps up its strength. Passing that point should see unfettered resistance when all the late comers get on board. 

I`m bullish as all looks well - plenty of accumulation and buyers chewing up the weak including me last week. 

Cheers 
Snake


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## Dutchy3 (28 March 2006)

I'll weigh into this one now.

Its an initial buy for me - position will take months / years to play out.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (29 March 2006)

We`ll have to agree to agree. I can only call it as I see it.  
I`m holding again.  
Pops and grans will load up tomorrow morning no doubt.


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## Dutchy3 (6 April 2006)

Oh you beautiful thing.

Will 3.05 be support this time ready to load up for better times ahead?


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## Dutchy3 (23 April 2006)

Took additional positions in the days leading up to the Easter break. The 3.05 has taken over from 2.80ish as the line in the sand


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## Smurf1976 (13 May 2006)

This company seems to be having serious trouble selling it's product. Sales down 35%+ it seems and they're putting contractors off (sending them permanently out of business in some cases) which won't make it simple to return to full production.

This is front page news today in the Mercury newspaper (Hobart). 

http://www.themercury.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,19118977%5E921,00.html

Also they seem to have caused some sort of air pollution incident forcing the closure of roads, cancelling school bus runs etc in NE Tas yesterday (media report). Gunns' isn't exactly the Greens' favourite company to start with and by the sounds of it this pollution from regeneration burns was somewhat over the top. One report said that a ute driver couldn't see the bull bar on the front of the vehicle because the smoke over the road was so thick. Police closed the road, effectively shutting down much of NE Tas for a few hours.  Others reported bleeding noses etc from breathing the smoke.

So losing sales, cutting jobs and upsetting the community at the same time. At least there's always the contrarian view - how much worse could things possibly get?


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## RichKid (14 May 2006)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> This company seems to be having serious trouble selling it's product. Sales down 35%+ it seems and they're putting contractors off (sending them permanently out of business in some cases) which won't make it simple to return to full production.
> 
> This is front page news today in the Mercury newspaper (Hobart).
> 
> ...





That's interesting Smurf as the chart shows resistance but emerging support as the higher bottoms are holding, prices coiling a bit. Can't say I agree with the pollution etc, I thought the new plant was to be good news. Time the instos put pressure on this co to lift its game- so much for Corporate Social Responsibility.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (11 August 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> Took additional positions in the days leading up to the Easter break. The 3.05 has taken over from 2.80ish as the line in the sand




What do you think now Dutchy3? Is it still a long term play that you hold?


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## Dutchy3 (13 August 2006)

Hi Snake

Nup ... took a loss on this one. I use margin so when I'm wrong I'm very wrong.

Only carrying two small long position in this market.

Even reversed up my super a month ago. 90% Aust Property and 10% Aust Shares


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

Dutchy are you looking at GNS in the current opportunity?


----------



## Dutchy3 (17 May 2007)

Hi Snake

Sorry for the tardie reply ... nup GNS fell of my radar and I have not had a recent look at it...


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## It's Snake Pliskin (14 June 2007)

Hi Dutchy,

Old GNS is starting to set up for me. Broker permitting I may take a short position soon. 
It has doen well of late though.

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (14 June 2007)

I took a short position today. Hindsight but I had to execute it first. 

The chart is my rationale.


----------



## nioka (4 October 2007)

Gunns shareholders got a bonus from the election we will have sometime. The government claims to have saved 2000 jobs by approving the development of the Tassie pulp mill. I wonder what would have happened if there was no election looming.


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## So_Cynical (17 June 2008)

Gunns getting down to near 5 and a half year lows...intra day low of 2.47 today
and the mill financing talks continue.....will the mill get up or wont it?

Surly even if the will dont go ahead GNS must be nearing bottom.:dunno:


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## mitch87 (17 March 2009)

a recent huntleys report assigns fair value to gns of $1.23, perhaps they are in a small rally that will not last, and fall again, or a move towards $1 likely


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## samgribbles (1 August 2009)

A good announcment on Thursday re GNS being the preferred provider for a new woodchip facility at Portland.  Share price didn't budge though.  Does anyone with some knowledge of GNS have a view on the announcement?


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## ricee007 (5 October 2009)

So, recently bought the debt, GNSPA... I'm very happy with it.

Anyone have any thoughts on GNS or GNSPA?


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## So_Cynical (17 March 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> 17th-June-2008: Gunns getting down to near 5 and a half year lows...intra day low of 2.47 today and the mill financing talks continue.....will the mill get up or wont it?
> 
> Surely even if the mill dont go ahead GNS must be nearing bottom.:dunno:




What the hell was i thinking way back then  anyway i figure we are alot closer to botton now with gunns pretty much hitting a near decade low today...so into Gunns today at 0.535.

Still lots to like about this great company going forward.


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## oldblue (18 March 2010)

I agree that GNS looks to be heavily oversold.

But the current slight bounce in the SP may turn out to be just that - a bounce. Why not wait for a bit of strength before buying?


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## awg (18 March 2010)

Not a holder, looked at their debt GNSPA, but this company has a bad smell to it imo, real credit risks exist. Many other risks as well, including Greens getting control. Wouldnt take many things to go wrong for this to turn ugly.


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## oldblue (18 March 2010)

awg said:


> Not a holder, looked at their debt GNSPA, but this company has a bad smell to it imo, real credit risks exist. Many other risks as well, including Greens getting control. Wouldnt take many things to go wrong for this to turn ugly.




Fair point there, but I reckon the jobs at stake/risk will carry the day in the end.

I don't hold but could be interested at some stage.


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## So_Cynical (18 March 2010)

Gota keep in mind that Gunns are now well and truly the #1 Timber company in Australia....with second place a mile behind.



#1 in export chips
#1 in sawn timber and timber products
#1 in plantation forestry
Probably #1 in forestry offsets.

Also keep in mind that as far as export chips go, our major competitors (Sth Africa and Brazil)  also have commodity driven currency's, and then there's the new market of Biomass opening up...chips to fuel renewable Biomass energy production in Europe and soon other parts of the developed world.

The average Joe has no idea what them plantation trees are really worth.


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## Smurf1976 (19 March 2010)

awg said:


> Not a holder, looked at their debt GNSPA, but this company has a bad smell to it imo, real credit risks exist. Many other risks as well, including Greens getting control. Wouldnt take many things to go wrong for this to turn ugly.



Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.

Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???). 

GNS is absolutely enemy No.1 as far as the Greens are concerned. _Anything_ else seems a very long way down the list in comparisson.


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## GumbyLearner (19 March 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.
> 
> A Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).




Who cares? Does this guy really care or does he care more about his own government-feathered parliamentary granted lifestyle?

http://midnorthcoast.nsw.greens.org.au/imagednew/bob-brown-dinner.jpg

A:CAN YOU DIG A DITCH? 
B Bob Brown: NO, I'M BEYOND DITCHES.


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## So_Cynical (19 March 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.
> 
> A Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).




Seriously any green coalition Govt that went about destroying the forestry industry would simply be self destructing, and would be turfed out in the resulting election.

Still sometimes people need to learn the hard way....what do you think the outcome will be Smurf?

_____________________________

Oh and nice to see GNS holding above 0.53


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## awg (19 March 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.
> 
> Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).
> 
> GNS is absolutely enemy No.1 as far as the Greens are concerned. _Anything_ else seems a very long way down the list in comparisson.




The following scenario is what concerned me.

Greens get balance of power..No Pulp Mill is what they would want.

If this somehow leads to further destabilisation of Gunns SP or other fundamentals, that could lead to credit issues.

If that happens, the ordinary equity holders could be exposed.

Having said that, the business has a product the price is back on the rise, you would think Gunns should be able to make it all work out, but if things go pear shaped, then price has further to fall first.


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## So_Cynical (19 March 2010)

awg said:


> The following scenario is what concerned me.
> 
> Greens get balance of power..No Pulp Mill is what they would want.
> 
> ...




I've no idea how a business with these numbers could in any way have "credit issues"

Gunns 1st half year 2010

Market Cap 443 mill (55 cents per share)
Total revenue 326 mill
Sawn timber revenue 130 mill, up 20%
Fibre (chips) 140 mill, up 5.7%
Plantation MIS 6 mill, down 88.3% (like that's a surprise)
Other revenue (mitre 10's etc) 59 mill, up 1.6
Total net debt 661 mill, up 2.8 

http://www.gunns.com.au/Content/upl...esentation Half Year Results Announcement.pdf


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## drsmith (20 March 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> I've no idea how a business with these numbers could in any way have "credit issues"
> 
> http://www.gunns.com.au/Content/upl...esentation Half Year Results Announcement.pdf



Underlying EBIT is less than interest expense in the latest half. 

The forest products part of the business seems to be the main culprit in the collapse in underlying EBIT so the question is whether EBIT is expected to recover of it's own accord. 

A strategic review by the directors would suggest not.


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## So_Cynical (20 March 2010)

drsmith said:


> The forest products part of the business seems to be the main culprit in the collapse in underlying EBIT so the question is whether EBIT is expected to recover of it's own accord.




Chip exports in Uruguay fell over 60% in 2009...so in comparison the chip business here held up pretty well with a 25% (approx) fall in volume.

I love it how a couple of bad months means its the end of the world for Gunns  and the global chip industry, and of course the global pulp and timber industry's...because if Gunns as the biggest exporter of chips in Australia (the leading export country) cant go on, then its gota be the end everywhere.

And of course that's a crock.

I remember when ILU - Iluka closed one of there kilns about 10 months ago due to falling global demand and prices, the SP hit a new low and i jumped all over it 2.90 something...well that kiln is still off line and the SP was 4.15 the other day.


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## drsmith (20 March 2010)

I didn't say it was the end of the world for Gunns.

The latest half's EBIT does however raise concerns that warrant the investigation of further information beyond that contained in the above 1/2 yearly presentation before investment can be considered even at the current share price.

Mr Market could well be right.


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## gigiknightfox (24 March 2010)

As I see it Gunns certainly has it's ongoing issues. Low chip sales will continue into the second half with 8 week shutdowns being experienced at two out of their three facilities. Maturing $40 mill debt shortly. Circa $180 mill capitilsed on the pulp mill which may or may not proceed. Chairman under increasing pressue to resign. Challanges with the ITC intergration. Doubtful that it will be able to offer any sort of MIS product this year. And if that isn't enough, banks especially CBA have an increasing dislike of the sector. There is obiously long term potential for the company, but this will be certainly depandant on seeing out these short term issues.


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## So_Cynical (24 March 2010)

gigiknightfox said:


> As I see it Gunns certainly has it's ongoing issues. Low chip sales will continue into the second half with 8 week shutdowns being experienced at two out of their three facilities. Maturing $40 mill debt shortly. Circa $180 mill capitilsed on the pulp mill which may or may not proceed. Chairman under increasing pressue to resign. Challanges with the ITC intergration. Doubtful that it will be able to offer any sort of MIS product this year. And if that isn't enough, banks especially CBA have an increasing dislike of the sector. There is obiously long term potential for the company, but this will be certainly depandant on seeing out these short term issues.




Issues = opportunity for those 'whatever' enough to see past the issues to the future.



So_Cynical said:


> into Gunns today at 0.535.




1 week later and the 0.53 cent bottom has held and the SP is slowly creeping up...ive a feeling ill be exiting in profit allot quicker than i expected.


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## qualos (30 March 2010)

Not holding too well at the moment. $0.465  It also looks like it may drop further yet. It has been dropping very fast.


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## So_Cynical (30 March 2010)

qualos said:


> Not holding too well at the moment. $0.465  It also looks like it may drop further yet. It has been dropping very fast.




Got to 0.455 at one point  then must of had a bit of a rally to end up at 0.50 for the close. :dunno: GNS isn't the first trade to go against me and it wont be the last.

Stocks go up, stocks go down...buyers and sellers at all levels, i would be keen to take an average down/re-position if the SP held below 0.45


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## Smurf1976 (31 March 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Seriously any green coalition Govt that went about destroying the forestry industry would simply be self destructing, and would be turfed out in the resulting election.
> 
> Still sometimes people need to learn the hard way....what do you think the outcome will be Smurf?



OK, the vote counting is almost complete and it seems to be 10 Labor, 10 Liberal, 5 Green.

1. Assuming a Labor / Liberal coalition is not an option, the new government will be either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green. So it's near certain that the Greens are part of the next government.

2. Based on public comments from the (Labor) premier before the election, it seems that Labor will not retain power if the Liberals win equal seats with more votes or more seats than Labor. The Liberals seem to have won equal seats with more votes.

So the _probable/I] outcome is a Liberal-Green government.

My guess is it works fine for a couple of years and then falls apart. I say that noting that Tasmanians historically haven't liked Liberals - their relatively high vote seems more a protest against Labor than support for Liberal as such.

Historically, we've had one Labor-Green and one Liberal-Green government, both of which fell apart a bit after two years. Labor-Green fell apart partly at the hands of forestry issues, Liberal-Green over a whole range of issues although the proposed privatisation of the Hydro was the issue which dominated the following election campaign which saw the Liberals effectively reduced to minor party status.

But the Greens are desperate to show themselves as responsible and able to govern. And of course Labor could side with the Liberals to back any pulp mill specific legislation as the Greens have already publicly noted.

My best guess is that we end up with essentially Liberal policies being implemented exept:

1. Some forests somewhere will become proteced. Not all forests, but some. Worth noting in that context that over 40% of the entire land mass of Tas is already formally protected.

2. Pulp mill sent back for a proper non-political assessment process (lack of which is the major objection many have to the proposal).

3. Additional funding for public transport.

4. Some sort of incentive to install solar panels on houses, probably in the form of either a one-off grant or a high rate feed in tariff.

5. Possibly, a no privatisation stance particularly in relation to hospitals and anything in any way associated with the Hydro (but not necessarily Transend or Aurora).

6. In the event that it ends up being Labor, not Liberal, in government then some sort of "good governance" scrutiny process.

Other than that, basically a Liberal government assuming they do take office. Otherwise, a Labor government also subject to the above points to keep the Greens happy._


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## So_Cynical (31 March 2010)

Thanks for your thoughts Smurf and well summed up...and pretty much spot on with your analysis, at least in my mind.

I saw the Greens leader on Q&A this week and he came across as more inclined to want a Labor partnership (didn't exactly say that thou...of course) and from a Gunns point of view, he agreed that all the legislation for the mill has already been passed and that the mill could now run on 100% plantation timber anyway.

So im inclined to agree with you that there will be more forests locked up as a political bargaining tool, and over time native forests will be slowly withdrawn from logging...and that's to be expected as its happened everywhere else already, greens just cant govern, they just cant do the compromise thing.


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## charttwit (31 March 2010)

GNS is struggling to go down, it is close to a 50FS&R, its current angle of achievement is obtuse, offer is holding price up, time is also up this week. will  post a chart yet when post count up to 5


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## Joe Blow (31 March 2010)

charttwit said:


> GNS is struggling to go down, it is close to a 50FS&R, its current angle of achievement is obtuse, offer is holding price up, time is also up this week. will  post a chart yet when post count up to 5




Charttwit: You don't need to wait until five posts to attach a chart to your post. Just upload it directly by clicking on the "Manage Attachments" button when you post. See attached image.


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## Smurf1976 (1 April 2010)

I noted with interest on election night that Paul Lennon, former Premier of Tas (not that long ago...), seemed _very_ confident that old growth logging would not be an ongoing issue for the next government. 

Given that Paul would obviously have just about all inside knowledge on the subject that is available, I can only assume he doesn't expect such logging to continue regardless of the election outcome. Presumably that expectation is based on underlying supply from plantations and the economics of the industry.

I note that this implies that plans for a wood-fired power station or two probably won't eventuate either. That, more than a pulp mill, is something the Greens are opposed to very strongly. 

Forest industry of some sort - yes.

Reduction in old growth logging - yes, the question being to what extent and how quickly.

Pulp mill - if it's assessed properly and they really do want to build it then I don't think the Greens (as distinct from general conservationists / protesters) will really stand in the way. The key point here is an independent assessment, without which the Greens couldn't possibly do anything other than oppose the mill from a political perspective.

Wood-fired power - given that wind, gas and imported (from Vic) coal-fired power are all cheaper and that conservationists even seem more willing to consider new large dams (!) than burning wood, I can't see a wood-fired power plant being built. I won't turn this into one of Smurf's energy threads, but suffice to say the entire concept and business model only stacks up as a means of cutting losses, and then only if you assume we're going to log the forests anyway - an idea which the Greens certainly don't take as a given. Plenty of people have examined the concept over the past 30 years, myself included, all of them rejecting it as not even close to being viable economically other than in the context of some type of make work scheme. But I can't see a government needing Green support trying to make work, whilst losing money, by logging forests...


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## charttwit (1 April 2010)

hopefully a chart will appear, its a transaction and time based chart only but u should be able to see what i am saying


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## boofhead (1 April 2010)

Gunns seems to be having a few battles to fight at once.

The pulp mill and costs against falling profits.

Some major shareholders are unhappy with the board.

Gray is being chased for poor disclosure of share buying (late lodgement.)

Various Gunns operations are again going through forced shutdowns because of lack of demand.

Exchange rates are going against Gunns. Makes it harder to compete in the woodchip business.

I'm not sure but I think I read new building figures are down. Gunns supplies some timber to that market.

Lennon probably thinks the timber industry will be further rationalised/downsized during the upcoming electoral term. With lower demand and plantations maturing there will be far less need to log native forests.

BTW I think Liberal will govern in minority instead of with the greens. For timber industry proposals Labor will support them so best leave them to later in the term where possible to keep the greens on side for other issues. Greens and Labor seem a better fit as they're more lefty than the Liberals.


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## awg (1 April 2010)

The leader of the Greens seems to talk sensibly, so maybe all the bad "green" news was already factored in.

If Gunns muck things up, quite likely will be internal mismanagement, as much as anything else.

The credit risk I refered to is mainly re GNSPA, where didvidends could be suspended in the event of a combination of Gunns EBIT falling, and Pulp Mill not getting financed, so they would have to swallow that, and covenants may be breached. I note though that Fiig has a buy on GNSPA.

Where there is risk, there is potential return, so good luck with the buy So_C, a value buy to be sure, too brave for me yet.

I have both on my watchlists


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## So_Cynical (24 April 2010)

Gunns released a market update after the close on Friday that included a small guidance downgrade. 

http://www.gunns.com.au/Content/upl.../2010 04 23 - ASX Release - Market Update.pdf

I'm really not sure if this is a good ann or a bad one...guidance to one side, selling the native forest land should bring in over 75 mill, the Mitre 10s (i think there's 5 of them) what 35 mill? and the shift away from native forests should be seen as a long term positive...and pulp is still worth 3 or 4 times what chips are worth.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...r-reorganisation/story-e6frg8zx-1225857634653


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## oldblue (25 April 2010)

I agree that the shift away from native forests and the heightened environmental concerns around them should be positive for GNS in the long term.

I'm not buying them now but will be looking for an opportunity when market sentiment  - and the SP trend - turns around.


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## So_Cynical (25 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> I agree that the shift away from native forests and the heightened environmental concerns around them should be positive for GNS in the long term.
> 
> I'm not buying them now but will be looking for an opportunity when market sentiment  - and the SP trend - turns around.




Yes i think i got in a little early, as a revisit to 0.46 is probably on the cards now, anyway by the time an up-trend is established you'll be buying at over 60 cents...i mite put in a buy at 0.41 for Tuesday morning, any things possible.


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## Smurf1976 (26 April 2010)

boofhead said:


> Gray is being chased for poor disclosure of share buying (late lodgement.)
> 
> ...
> 
> BTW I think Liberal will govern in minority instead of with the greens. For timber industry proposals Labor will support them so best leave them to later in the term where possible to keep the greens on side for other issues. Greens and Labor seem a better fit as they're more lefty than the Liberals.



Given Gray's past performance as a poltician, virtually bankrupting an entire state, let's just say I'm none too impressed with his financial abilities. 

Environmentally, he'd dam the lot and log the rest...

As for governments, the actual outcome is a proper Labor-Green government as such. That is, a government with both Labor and Green ministers as distinct from simply having a minority Labor (or Liberal) government supported by the Greens. All I can really say on that one is it will be interesting to see how it goes and I wouldn't like to guess. Gut feeling is it might just work out OK...


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## GumbyLearner (31 May 2010)

Gunns shares rally two days in a row this time including takeover talk

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100531/BCH004039.asp


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## So_Cynical (15 June 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> 17th-March-2010 into Gunns today at 0.535.




Totally out today at 0.55 - hard to call it a panic sell when its in profit and after i held thru the whole ride down to 26 cents.  im mostly selling cos i was so pissed off i couldn't buy at under 28 cents due to being fully invested and the realisation that i brought in way to early (again) and needed to take my money off the Gunns table and re-evaluate.

Anyway moving on as there's so much value in the market ATM with alot less risk than GNS...good luck to the holders.


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## Toranova (17 June 2010)

GNS share price just hit 0.65, bought in at 0.525 right before the drop to 0.435 and now seems to be recovering quite well.  Some new contracts and a adjusted forecast for earnings seems to be helping quite a lot.


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## Toranova (18 June 2010)

Share price just hit 0.70.  Wonder how long this rise is going to continue, having trouble deciding if I should sell now and make my 30% gain or continue to ride it.  Damn choices.


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## jwillys (19 June 2010)

HOLD mate.... I think it will go down to about .66, but will go up again up to .75, but again this is just my personal opinion.. me myself will go in again once the buyer volumes twice of the sellers.



Toranova said:


> Share price just hit 0.70.  Wonder how long this rise is going to continue, having trouble deciding if I should sell now and make my 30% gain or continue to ride it.  Damn choices.


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## Fiat_23 (6 September 2010)

$1.7242 distribution per security -- is that what Gunns will pay you for each GNS share you hold or does that mean something totally different?

And the Ex Div date would be 27th Sep?

------ Company Anncouncement------
30 August 2010 
Company Announcements Platform 
Australian Securities Exchange 
GNSPA (FORESTS) DISTRIBUTION 
Record date 				30 September 2010 
Face value of securities on issue 		$120,000,000 
Distribution Rate 				6.9160% 
Total value of quarterly distribution 		$2,069,160 
Distribution per security 			$1.7243 
The distribution rate is calculated as follows: 
Market rate 				4.88% 
Margin 					5.00% 
                                                                9.88%
Multiplied by (1 – tax rate) 			0.7 
Distribution rate 				6.9160% 

The distribution will be fully franked and paid on 14 October 2010.

Yours sincerely 

Wayne Chapman 
Company Secretary


----------



## boofhead (6 September 2010)

It is for GNSPA and not GNS. Check out the hybrid thread for information. It is an interest bearing security and not a share.


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## So_Cynical (6 September 2010)

Fiat_23 said:


> $1.7242 distribution per security -- is that what Gunns will pay you for each GNS share you hold or does that mean something totally different?
> 
> And the Ex Div date would be 27th Sep?




Pretty sure there was an announcement a month or so ago, saying there would be no dividend for GNS holders.


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## pigeondog (1 February 2011)

What happened to Gunns today? Down more than 20% at one stage and closed down 13%. Recent announcements about closing a mill in WA and finalising the purchase of the Bell Bay Mill don't justify this kind of move. Is there something we don't know?


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## namrog (1 February 2011)

pigeondog said:


> What happened to Gunns today? Down more than 20% at one stage and closed down 13%. Recent announcements about closing a mill in WA and finalising the purchase of the Bell Bay Mill don't justify this kind of move. Is there something we don't know?




Let's look at the things we do know pigeondog.
Gns broke down today through fairly strong previous support around 58 and 55ish cents which would have triggered a lot of stops, and I assume it snowballed a little from there, hitting more and more stops as it fell.
If there is a possitive to be found from todays action , it's that the sp finished a fair bit off the bottom, however the volume assiciated with todays drop, suggests it would be better to stay away from it at this stage, we could end up with a similar performance as seen during februrary last year.
I believe local gos in tasmania has been non too positive lately also, still todays washout could have cleared the decks somewhat.
However, I'd like to see something positive before re-entering...
That's only my oppinion though, so dyodd...


----------



## pigeondog (2 February 2011)

namrog said:


> Let's look at the things we do know pigeondog.
> Gns broke down today through fairly strong previous support around 58 and 55ish cents which would have triggered a lot of stops, and I assume it snowballed a little from there, hitting more and more stops as it fell.
> If there is a possitive to be found from todays action , it's that the sp finished a fair bit off the bottom, however the volume assiciated with todays drop, suggests it would be better to stay away from it at this stage, we could end up with a similar performance as seen during februrary last year.
> I believe local gos in tasmania has been non too positive lately also, still todays washout could have cleared the decks somewhat.
> ...




Really?! It "snowballed" from 55 to 45 because it hit a few stops? On volume of 40 million shares yesterday and another 20 million before open today? The action in February last year was associated with huge profit downgrades and asset write-offs (then some hedge funds tried to smack it to zero but failed). So now we can see some smoke - is there a fire?

There appear to have been a few hedge funds playing with this stock for a while now so we may find out in the next few days what they have been doing if they are big enough to put in substantial shareholder notices. Or it could have been one of the insto holders bailing. 

The big thing for this stock is the pulp mill. If they get funding, GNS is worth much more than 50c. If they don't get funding, it's probably headed for administration as it crumbles under too much debt. When I see action like this it makes me think that someone has the inside running on the pulp mill and is running for the door so I get nervous.


----------



## namrog (2 February 2011)

pigeondog said:


> Really?! It "snowballed" from 55 to 45 because it hit a few stops? .




Her's a chart then , tell me what you see..

You don't think TA had anything to do with it at all ?


----------



## ricee007 (12 June 2011)

Does anyone know the book value of the Triabunna Mill?

I'm assuming quite low, since they were losing money. But, every couple of million helps.

And, it seems like there were two groups interested in buying.. and it seemed to sell quite quickly?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/11/3241707.htm
Triabunna mill sold
Posted 6 hours 41 minutes ago 

Good news, esp. for GNSPA holders


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## bigricho (19 June 2011)

*GNS future*

Hi is anyone able to put any positive light on this stock? It looks like it must build the pulp mill or go bust. I can't see how they could finance the construction of the mill.
 Appreciate any feedback:


----------



## notting (19 September 2011)

Opened about 17% percent down and is now 25% up


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## Smurf1976 (19 September 2011)

*Re: GNS future*



bigricho said:


> Hi is anyone able to put any positive light on this stock? It looks like it must build the pulp mill or go bust. I can't see how they could finance the construction of the mill.
> Appreciate any feedback:



Judging by media reports, the company either has already, or is in the process of, exiting from just about everything they do other than the pulp mill. As such, GNS has changed from being an established timber company that also makes wine and sells hardware into a speculatvie pulp mill developer with few (no?) actually operating businesses.

Imagine if Qantas announced that they've actually sold all their planes, sacked all their pilots and are aiming to build some luxury hotels instead but thus far haven't actually built anything. That's directly comparable to what GNS is actually doing - abandon basically everything in order to pursue the construction of a single pulp mill.

As for the mill itself, some works are taking place on site and it was reported in the media that some machinery had turned up at the Bell Bay port quite some time ago. But without a source of funds it would seem to be a case of speeding ahead at full steam straight into a brick wall.

I'll believe this pulp mill only when it's not simply being built, but when it's actually built and operating. Over 7 years thus far and all that's really happened is to cut down a few trees on the site (presumably sending them to the existing woodchip mill right next door) and over the past couple of weeks they've pushed a few piles of dirt around with a bulldozer and seem to be building a dam of sorts on the site (looks just like a farm dam, I don't mean a huge concrete dam or anything like that). If they're going to build the mill then they'll need to hurry up somewhat.


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## ricee007 (7 October 2011)

I'm surprised at the lack of thoughts on GNSPA on here.

No mention of the recent days events?

I was lucky enough to increase my (small) holdings by over 150% at $33.33, between the 'original' dividend announcement and the 'revised' announcement. That means, I had expected that I had purchased them ex-div, but they will actually be entitled to the $2.6522 dividend on 14th Oct.

I'm willing to move my sell-price around, but, at the moment I've got it around 33% higher than my purchase. I don't mind 'pulling' them off-market and holding them... but if I can make a quick $500 or so, then I won't be complaining either.

Still, considering I purchased at $74.5, I'm still red on these - unless you take into account dividends, then I"m probably in front (but, behind, due to time-value of money).


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## mrthong (5 January 2012)

why is GNS is suffering more compared to the other stocks?


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## Chasero (5 January 2012)

mrthong said:


> why is GNS is suffering more compared to the other stocks?




Isn't GNS near bankruptcy until it gets it's mills going?

There's also an article from one of the big brokers advising against holding this stock (I think it was goldman sachs...


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## So_Cynical (5 January 2012)

mrthong said:


> why is GNS is suffering more compared to the other stocks?




LOL what a sense of humour. 

Seriously dude read the announcements.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=GNS


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## Smurf1976 (5 January 2012)

Regarding the pulp mill, there are some substantial earth works at the site which have been done. This is clearly visible if you drive south from the roundabout near TEMCO and the aluminium smelter toward the Bell Bay and Tamar Valley power stations. It's basically a huge cleared area, and that's the site for the pulp mill.

Around the site is a fence, actually it's a huge site and a rather long fence. Attached to the fence is a sign to the effect of "private property - keep out" literally every few metres. There's more signs on that fence than white posts beside the road (seriously).

But that's it. Some earth works. I doubt that anyone seriously expects that GNS is actually going to build the mill as they just don't seem able to. At best, they might sell off a "ready to go project" with the land, permits etc to someone else but I can't see them actually building it. It's not as though they've got a couple of $ billion just sitting around or even anyone willing to lend them the money.


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## mrthong (10 January 2012)

omg. i shouldve exited it at .105   im going to take an arrow to the knee and wait this out till the end of jan. right now the share price is killing me. seems like GNS has a few deals coming up at the end of this month? i shouldve read more about gunns before making impulse buying.


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## mrthong (13 January 2012)

"PULP MILL MAGISTRATES COURT CHALLENGE DISMISSAL"
seems like it created hope for the company, that it is going to survive and the pulp mill is going to happen despite their debt issue.
anyone think its still a sinking ship?


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## Smurf1976 (13 January 2012)

7 years ago I went to Queensland on holidays and remember quite well talking about the pulp mill proposal with a taxi driver. 

7 years later and there is a cleared area of land (land which they already owned) at the pulp mill site and that's it. Meanwhile practically everything from the sawmills at Scottsdale to retail hardware stores has been closed down (absolutely devastating the Scottsdale community due to job losses by the way) or sold off and the entire timber industry is in outright crisis. 

Now supposedly we're about to see a company with no prior pulp mill experience, and indeed little recent experience at running any successful business, build a $ multi-billion mill that will be one of the largest in the world. I'll believe it when it's substantially built - and by that I mean a lot more than just some earthworks.


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## ricee007 (24 January 2012)

RE: no experience... to be fair, they are LOOKING for an experienced partner.


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## Chasero (24 January 2012)

ricee007 said:


> RE: no experience... to be fair, they are LOOKING for an experienced partner.




Investing in a company praying for a joint venture?

Reminds me of the numerous uranium companies that have been on a downtrend for years and have one announcement every 3 months.. 

Most are about possible partners


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## ricee007 (27 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> Investing in a company praying for a joint venture?
> 
> Reminds me of the numerous uranium companies that have been on a downtrend for years and have one announcement every 3 months..
> 
> Most are about possible partners



Whilst I understand your cynicism... Gunns is, clearly, completely, and utterly, different to a uranium exploration company.

Timbercorp, Elders, Great Southern are better comparisons (and, still, don't bode well for Gunns, I know!).


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## Chasero (31 January 2012)

very nice ann out today!

loan agreed on... for next 9 months or so?


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## Chasero (31 January 2012)

Huge trading day today.

Maybe up 60%


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## Smurf1976 (1 April 2012)

I assume this is an April Fool's Day joke but there's a story in the paper today that the Australian Government may be willing to finance Gunns' pulp mill proposal.

http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/04/01/314671_tasmania-news.html

As I said, I assume it's a joke.


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