# Tipping Competition for Full CY 2018



## Joe Blow (26 December 2017)

We're off to a late start this year ladies and gentlemen, but we're going ahead because this 12 month competition is a popular one and I think we should make it a regular yearly event.

The rules will be slightly different in 2018. As there weren't many changes this year, in 2018 there will be no changes allowed, so please choose carefully and with a 12 month time frame in mind. Also, all stocks selected must be $0.10 or more at the time of entry.

So, to summarise:

The final rules for the 2018 full year stock tipping competition are as follows:

Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
No stocks that are trading at less than $0.10 on the day of entry may be entered.
A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
If a stock is taken over it can be replaced. The exit price shall be taken to be the takeover price. The new stock must be nominated before the date the taken over stock ceases trading and the entry price of the new stock shall be taken to be the closing price on the day the taken over stock ceases trading.

The competition will run from Monday, 8 January 2018 to Monday, 31 December 2018.
Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Friday, 5 January 2018.
Entries close at midnight on Sunday, 7 January 2018.
The cash prizes will be the same as in 2017:

1st Place: $200
2nd Place: $100
3rd Place: $50

Entries are now open. Please enter at your convenience by posting your entries in this thread. If you have already posted your entries in the 2017 thread, please post them again in here. Thanks!


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## Joules MM1 (26 December 2017)

TLS
AMP
TTT
BRN
FBR

thanks, Joe


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## explod (26 December 2017)

NST
MOY
PLS
SBM and
DRG.  thanks Joe.  Mostly gold with a sprinkle of lithium.


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## Logique (27 December 2017)

Thanks Joe. I didn't do any selection changes in 2017, as I didn't like the idea anyway. I've had to drop the previously advised LPD, which is only trading at 5c.
My updated 2018 selections are as below:
GXY Galaxy Res
KDR Kidman Res
LVT  Livetiles
PLS  Pilbara Min
SXY  Senex Energy


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## pixel (27 December 2017)

For 2018, I'm going with the "Feed the world" theme.
Would have liked to include a couple of penny stocks, but with the 10c cut-off, my selections are -
BUB
CZZ,
NXT
RFX
TWE


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## mcgrath111 (27 December 2017)

I'm a big fan of the Full Year competition, its interesting to see everyone's picks. 

I'm going on the inverse etf train. Giddy up! 
USD
BBUS
BBOZ
BEAR
QAU

Thanks Joe,


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## noirua (27 December 2017)

DCC - DigitalX
KYC - KYCKR
EML - EML Payments
MML - Medusa
OMH - OM Holdings

Thanks Joe


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## sptrawler (27 December 2017)

MCR - Mincor
RHL - Rural Co
HOM - Homeloans
MLT - Milton
AMP - AMP

Thanks Joe


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## peter2 (27 December 2017)

systematic said:


> Another set of picks for next year - posting now so I don't have to remember...
> 
> Lincoln Indicators (via ASX)
> source link
> ...




Reposted for convenience.


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## peter2 (27 December 2017)

BSE
MAH
MMI
MOY
PRU

Hoping it's a good year for commodities.


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## Zero Sum Game (28 December 2017)

QIN
SYR
DMP
RFG
JBH

Coz I got a better chance at the wooden spoon!


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## So_Cynical (28 December 2017)

Zero Sum Game said:


> QIN
> SYR
> DMP
> RFG
> ...




QIN is suspended, so will not meet this rule. 

A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.


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## systematic (28 December 2017)

Joe,

I didn't use the changes rule in 2017 either...however could you consider a more moderate rule of being allowed to change the stock if it's taken over / under takeover?  That happened to me in 2015 or 2016 quite early in the year, and I would have liked to re-select.
Or do you just want to carry it over to the new company and keep going?

Either way cool, just posing the question now.  I think either of the two options above are fair enough, but avoid having to simply stay in cash the rest of the year for that position (which from memory, is what happened with my takeover as we didn't really have all the rules down then - and doesn't really reflect what you'd do 'in real life')


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## systematic (28 December 2017)

systematic said:


> peter2,
> 
> This is one for next year (posting now so I don't have to remember).
> 
> ...





Also re-posted from 2017 comp for convenience


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## Younga (28 December 2017)

AVZ
FBR
TLS
FMG
FGR
for me thanks


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## Joe Blow (28 December 2017)

systematic said:


> I didn't use the changes rule in 2017 either...however could you consider a more moderate rule of being allowed to change the stock if it's taken over / under takeover?  That happened to me in 2015 or 2016 quite early in the year, and I would have liked to re-select.




OK, I think it's fair enough to allow people to change positions if a stock is taken over. I don't imagine a takeover will happen too often. I have edited the rules in the first post to allow for this situation. The 2018 rule is the same as the take over rule from this year.


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## Zero Sum Game (28 December 2017)

Zero Sum Game said:


> QIN
> SYR
> DMP
> RFG
> ...



Woops. Remove the suspended QIN. 
MYR should do it.


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## nulla nulla (28 December 2017)

FMG
NAB
SCG
TLS
VCX


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## Parse (29 December 2017)

ANZ
CAJ
KNL
TRT
WPL

Thank You!


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## oilleak (29 December 2017)

DTZ
BHD
NOV
NTI
DRG

Cheers


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## Knobby22 (29 December 2017)

AX1   Will recover to above $1.10
MYX  This could be a big year.
DGR Global miner Cheap.
CSL  The only way is up!
ENN  Could be a good year.


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## bigdog (30 December 2017)

*My Full CY 2018 selections are:
*
A2M
ALL
APT
EHL
TRS


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## tech/a (30 December 2017)

OK
The Duck is getting serious.

Can I have Ripple? (If I can take out HLX).

MYQ
HLX
BIQ
LVT
RFN


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## dutchie (30 December 2017)

ABT
EVN
HIG
LKE
MLX

Thanks Joe.
Good luck everyone.
2018 will be big!! (thanks POTUS)


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## leyy (30 December 2017)

AGO
CAJ
EHL
LYC
STO

Thanks & good luck all!


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## Moose_ (31 December 2017)

FDM
IPD
TTT
AU8
PFP

thanks and good luck


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## Wyatt (31 December 2017)

AVZ
SEH
SYR
LYC
NXT

Thanks Joe


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## Wysiwyg (31 December 2017)

AHZ
BSX
CAY
DNA
EAX
please. No fundamental assessment taken so fizzers or whizzers.

Oh and thank you Joe. Have a terrific 2018 hey.


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## kid hustlr (31 December 2017)

First time playing along.

Opted for the 'fund of fund' approach by picking the best stocks from those before me:

PLS
MYX
RFN
MMI
CZZ


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## Logique (1 January 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> First time playing along.
> Opted for the 'fund of fund' approach by picking the best stocks from those before me:
> PLS
> MYX
> ...



Kid, RFN is ineligible under 2018 rules, as it is trading below $0.10 (.046 last)


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## Cam019 (1 January 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> No stocks that are trading at less than $0.10 on the day of entry may be entered.






leyy said:


> AGO
> CAJ
> EHL
> LYC
> ...




@leyy, AGO is also ineligible. Last close at $0.031.


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## kid hustlr (1 January 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> First time playing along.
> 
> Opted for the 'fund of fund' approach by picking the best stocks from those before me:
> 
> ...




Updated


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## Cam019 (1 January 2018)

BPT
ELD
IMF
PPS
RBL

Thanks Joe.


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## pinkboy (1 January 2018)

MLT
PPT
PMC
MFG
FGG

My Aussie LIC picks last year fared me pretty well. Gone for a mix of fund management with more international focus.

pinkboy


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## So_Cynical (3 January 2018)

To have any genuine chance of winning this comp some speculative stocks must be selected, on that basis i have selected a mix of very speculative and not so speculative, all small and micro caps, tech focused and a goldie.


 HZR - Hazer (Tech, Graphite and Hydrogen)
 SLX - Silex (Tech, Uranium enrichment)
 SPZ - Smart Parking (Tech, modern car parking)
 LNU - Linius (Tech, video monetization)
 DRM - Doray Minerals (Gold producer)


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## peter2 (5 January 2018)

This comp closing midnight Sunday Jan 7th.

Cannabis companies have so far not been selected 
(AC8, CAN, MMJ, MXC, BOT, CPH, QBL, SCU, THC, ZLD and probably a few others...)


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## rcm617 (5 January 2018)

HZN
EML
ZNT
AHZ
MPW
Thanks


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## noirua (6 January 2018)

noirua said:


> DCC - DigitalX
> KYC - KYCKR
> EML - EML Payments
> MML - Medusa
> ...




Hi Joe, Apologies, KYCKR should have the ticker KYK and not KYC


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## myrtie100 (6 January 2018)

AMH
AQI
LNU
MMJ
SHO

Thanks for running this comp guys, and good luck to all


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## peter2 (6 January 2018)

This marks the spot that I've reached with the formatting of the 2018 spreadsheet. 

Where are you? 
systematic, robusta, odds-on, skc, Nortorious, drillinto, Craton, Vsntchr, miner, Klogg

POI: Every time I type SEH it auto corrects to SHE  aargh!


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## systematic (6 January 2018)

Glad you're bumping this! 
I'll be in.  Hope the others are coming!


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## MacDizzle (6 January 2018)

FMG
GRR
RSG
BPT
SEA

Thanks


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## peter2 (6 January 2018)

@systematic   I knew your bank of computers would be very busy churning through all the fundamental data so that you'd have your selections before the deadline tonight.


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## PZ99 (6 January 2018)

EDE
YOW
DEG
TTC
TRT

Thanks


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## systematic (6 January 2018)

Ha! More like...


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## systematic (6 January 2018)

...deadline is Sunday, right?  Think I left my darts at the pub...


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## leyy (6 January 2018)

Cam019 said:


> @leyy, AGO is also ineligible. Last close at $0.031.




replace AGO with AWC.


AWC
CAJ
EHL
LYC
STO


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## systematic (7 January 2018)

Bump!

Co'mon everyone.  30 tipsters this year (not including ETF's and 'outside' tipsters) and I think we had 38 last year!

*GET YOUR TIPS IN NOW OR YOU"LL MISS OUT FOR 12 MONTHS!!!  *


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## systematic (7 January 2018)

*AQZ
WHC
HZN
GRR
KCN
*


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## odds-on (7 January 2018)

My picks for 2018:

MYR
WTP
CAA
MCE
ZGL.

Best of luck to everybody.

Cheers


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## robusta (7 January 2018)

ALU
NAN
RHC
TPM
XRO
Planning to hold these for the next 12 months anyway so lets hope for another good year.
If we could change one through the year I would throw in BBUS (Short S&P500) I can't remember the last correction/crash, must be due....


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## Miner (7 January 2018)

If there is still time for tipping then my five tips :
IVV (if IVV is not acceptable then replace with AGO) (Gees AGO is not also acceptable) so use MSB
MUA
TLS
ENR (less than 10 cents so please replace with  RFG)
MCT
Happy New Year to all


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## cook76yes (8 January 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> We're off to a late start this year ladies and gentlemen, but we're going ahead because this 12 month competition is a popular one and I think we should make it a regular yearly event.
> 
> The rules will be slightly different in 2018. As there weren't many changes this year, in 2018 there will be no changes allowed, so please choose carefully and with a 12 month time frame in mind. Also, all stocks selected must be $0.10 or more at the time of entry.
> 
> ...



Hi,
apologies, as a newbie to this site I am not sure how to post independently so i have replied to your post.
I would like to post the following tips


Joe Blow said:


> We're off to a late start this year ladies and gentlemen, but we're going ahead because this 12 month competition is a popular one and I think we should make it a regular yearly event.
> 
> The rules will be slightly different in 2018. As there weren't many changes this year, in 2018 there will be no changes allowed, so please choose carefully and with a 12 month time frame in mind. Also, all stocks selected must be $0.10 or more at the time of entry.
> 
> ...



Hi, Pse advise how to psot for a Newbie.  I am looking to add my competition tis.
Chers


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## Joe Blow (8 January 2018)

cook76yes said:


> Hi, Pse advise how to psot for a Newbie.  I am looking to add my competition tis.
> Chers



Hi cook76yes, welcome to the forums!

To post without replying to another post, simply scroll down the page until you see this:



Although, yours won't have my avatar to the left. Simply type your post into the text area, click "Post Reply" and Bob's your uncle.


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## skc (8 January 2018)

Happy New Year fellow ASF members.

I may be a bit late for this so I'll let the organisers decide if my entry would be accepted.

MYX
OGX
OVH
COE
YAL


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## systematic (8 January 2018)

skc said:


> I may be a bit late for this so I'll let the organisers decide if my entry would be accepted.




I vote yes!  I’d rather have you in than out for the sake of a day. Let’s just say the broker mucked up your order


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## Joe Blow (9 January 2018)

skc said:


> Happy New Year fellow ASF members.
> 
> I may be a bit late for this so I'll let the organisers decide if my entry would be accepted.
> 
> ...



Given you've been AWOL for four months or so, I'll let this one slip through. 

However, entries are now closed. Thank you to those who have thrown their hat in the ring for the 2018 competition. Best of luck to you all!


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## skc (9 January 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> Given you've been AWOL for four months or so, I'll let this one slip through.




Thanks Joe.



systematic said:


> I vote yes!  I’d rather have you in than out for the sake of a day. Let’s just say the broker mucked up your order




Haha... blame it on the broker!


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## cook76yes (14 January 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> Given you've been AWOL for four months or so, I'll let this one slip through.
> 
> However, entries are now closed. Thank you to those who have thrown their hat in the ring for the 2018 competition. Best of luck to you all!



Cheers!


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## peter2 (31 January 2018)

*EOM Jan 2018 update for yearly comp:* 

XAO lost a little this month  -1.3% (YTD -1.3%)
-------------------------
_LEADER:_ *skc +10%*

_Second:_ *bigdog +8%*
_Third:_ *tech/a +5%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ The leaders.

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *bigdog, sptrawler*

_# competitors beating the XAO (out of 35):_ 13 (37%)



_*Note: Please check that your entry is in the table and the stock codes are correct. Last year I left a few people out. *_


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## kid hustlr (31 January 2018)

This is great thanks for this P2.

SKC is just a winner isn't he.

(ofcourse the stock of his that I picked is the only one has under water!)


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## So_Cynical (1 February 2018)

Off to a shocking start - 3rd last..WTF


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## dutchie (1 February 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Off to a shocking start - 3rd last..WTF



What are you worried about..... I'm at -15%.
I would have been better off shorting my selections!


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## Zero Sum Game (1 February 2018)

I chose the top shorted stocks for a giggle, only down 4.9%...


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## maximillian (1 February 2018)

Is it too late for my entry?


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## Joe Blow (1 February 2018)

maximillian said:


> Is it too late for my entry?



Sorry Max, entries have now closed for the 2018 competition. The 2019 competition is only eleven months away, so if you stick around you can get on board later this year. 

We also have a monthly competition that you can enter in the meantime. Keep an eye out for the entry thread which usually gets started around the 20th of each month.

Let me know if you have any questions.


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## PZ99 (6 February 2018)

mcgrath111 said:


> I'm a big fan of the Full Year competition, its interesting to see everyone's picks.
> 
> I'm going on the inverse etf train. Giddy up!
> USD
> ...




Giddy up!


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## peter2 (7 February 2018)

I'm pleased someone else noticed this portfolio selected by @mcgrath111 .
I'm giving it it's "5 min of fame" as I'm hoping we'll not notice it again all year.


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## mcgrath111 (9 February 2018)

peter2 said:


> I'm pleased someone else noticed this portfolio selected by @mcgrath111 .
> I'm giving it it's "5 min of fame" as I'm hoping we'll not notice it again all year.
> 
> View attachment 86201



Year of the bear!


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## peter2 (28 February 2018)

EOM Feb 2018 update for yearly comp:   XAO lost a little this month -0.5% (YTD *-1.8%*)
-------------------------
New leader and one of our most consistent posters. Well done. I usually give the posts a like whenever I want to read the overnight news.

_LEADER:_ *BIGDOG* +22%

_Second_: *robusta* +8%
_Third:_ *skc* +7%
_Fourth_: peter2 +6%

_Biggest gains this month:_ bigdog (+14%, A2M)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ bigdog, skc

_# competitors beating the XAO (out of 35):_ 11 (31%)




_Note: I normally don't post 4th place._


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## peter2 (31 March 2018)

EOM March 2018 update for yearly comp:    XAO  -4% this month  (YTD *-5.8%*)
-------------------------
Bigdog has firm grip on the lead. 
Our resident 2018 bear (mcgrath111) gets another 5min in the spotlight. 

_LEADER:_ *BIGDOG* *+19%*

_Second:_ *skc* *+9%*
_Third:_ *knobby22* *+7%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ 
*mcgrath111* +6% (BBOZ)
*So_Cynical* +6% (SPZ)
*knobby22* +5% (AX1)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *mcgrath111*

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ 13 (36%)


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## peter2 (30 April 2018)

EOM April 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO +3.3% this month (YTD -2.5%)
-------------------------

_LEADER:_ *BIGDOG* *+18%*

_Second:_ *robusta* *+9%*
_Third:_ *knobby22 +8%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ *rcm617* +11% (AHZ)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ NIL

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ 12 (33%)




Note: Those that selected AMP will not be referred to the RC.


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## kid hustlr (30 April 2018)

It's mathematically quite significant how many players have managed to be out of the money on all 5 trades


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## Joules MM1 (30 April 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> It's mathematically quite significant how many players have managed to be out of the money on all 5 trades




only when you close the trade, lol, thanks to amp being found out mines looking like winning last place ......but, 7 months to go.....could get ...worse 



peter2 said:


> Note: Those that selected AMP will not be referred to the RC.


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## So_Cynical (1 May 2018)

SPZ isn't worth a mention? - up 104%, the only stock selection up 3 figures...


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## Darc Knight (1 May 2018)

I give you guys credit for all the work you all put into this. The educated Man's TAB???


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## PZ99 (1 May 2018)

I must apologise for letting the side down so far. But it ain't over yet


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## systematic (1 May 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I give you guys credit for all the work you all put into this. The educated Man's TAB???




Biggest casino in the world, baby!


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## peter2 (2 May 2018)

@So_Cynical   SPZ up 104% at EOM. Wow!!


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## peter2 (31 May 2018)

EOM May 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO +0.8% this month (YTD -1.7%)
-------------------------

_LEADER:_ *bigdog* *+26%*

_Second:_ *knobby22* *+20%*
_Third:_ *skc* *+17%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ *JoulesMM1* +16% (TTT), *moose_* +16% (TTT), *knobby22* +12% (AX1), 
*skc* +11%,

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *bigdog, skc, leyy*

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ 10 (28%)


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## bigdog (2 July 2018)

Hi Joe,

When do you plan for update as at June 30 2018?


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## Joe Blow (2 July 2018)

bigdog said:


> Hi Joe,
> 
> When do you plan for update as at June 30 2018?




Hi bigdog, peter2 has been kind enough to keep track of the yearly competition. I'm sure he will be along with an update sometime in the near future.


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## peter2 (2 July 2018)

@bigdog  Is the pressure of leading the yearly comp getting to you? 

EOFY. I was busy closing last years portfolio spreadsheets and opening new ones. Reviewing my performance during the year and writing reports. 

Because I was late, it takes me longer to get all the EOM prices into the spreadsheet, but it's all done now.


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## peter2 (2 July 2018)

EOM June 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO +2.7% this month (YTD +1.0%)
-------------------------
No change to any of the top five this month.
The top eight all improve their performances. 

_LEADER:_ *bigdog* +31%

_Second:_ *knobby22* +25%
_Third:_ *skc* +21%

_Biggest gains this month:_ *Cam019*  +9% (PPS)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *skc, leyy*

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ *8* (22%)


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## bigdog (3 July 2018)

peter2 said:


> @bigdog  Is the pressure of leading the yearly comp getting to you?




Thank you peter2 for updating the June results

This is the first year that I have entered the yearly comp and very interested of course

My big concern now is TRS "the reject shop" in my tips where daily volume has been low

John


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## PZ99 (3 July 2018)

Good luck bigdog. I think you're going to win this one


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## mcgrath111 (12 July 2018)

Once AVZ hits .10 I'll be making the switch from USD to AVZ. 


Big dog stands no chance against the big bear!


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## peter2 (31 July 2018)

@bigdog remains the top dog. 

@mcgrath111   AVZ hit 0.10 and closed at 0.105 on the day after your post. 
I've replaced USD with AVZ using the next open price (0.11).


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## peter2 (31 July 2018)

EOM July 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO +1.2% this month (YTD +2.2%)
-------------------------

_LEADER:_ *bigdog* *+42%*

_Second:_ *skc* *+27%*
_Third:_ *knobby22* *+23%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ *bigdog* +11% (APT), *myrtie100* +10% (SHO)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *skc*

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ 8 (22%)


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## peter2 (27 August 2018)

Using racing parlance I see @bigdog has the whip out and is riding APT hard. APT is currently +218% from its starting price. There's a long way to go and we're still to reach the home turn. 

Meanwhile just behind the leaders there's been a "robust" challenge and he's now with the leaders thanks to ALU, NAN and XRO. 

I will confirm that bigdog still has his nose in front as we come to the end of Aug.


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## bigdog (27 August 2018)

Currently 59.6% today

I set up excel file to check occasionally

I bought them all too.

TRS The reject shop has been performing poorly and down 13%


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## peter2 (31 August 2018)

EOM August 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO +1% this month (YTD +3.2%)

-------------------------
@bigdog holds onto the lead, but @robusta has put in a determined challenge.

Another shock, our guest tipsters Lincoln Ind and M.Roth are the only ones to hold 5/5 profitable picks.

-------------------------
_LEADER_: *bigdog* *+58%*

_Second_: *robusta* *+44%*
_Third_: *knobby22* *+36%*

_Biggest gains this month_*:* *robusta* +28% (ALU, TPM, XRO), *bigdog* +16% (APT, A2M), 
*knobby22* +13% (AX1, MYX)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *Lincoln Ind., M.Roth*,

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ *8* (22%)


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## peter2 (26 September 2018)

Two trading days until the end of Sept and there's a challenge to @bigdog 's top dog status as leader. 

Has bigdog run out of steam or will APT rise again?


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## HelloU (26 September 2018)

prolly run out of steam ( i reckon a2m is gunna knee-cap him) .....word is a2m had to pay a scalper to get a corporate box at the footy finals .....cost $4M or something for the weekend (prolly not true though - you see more on the TV anyhow - and nobody gets drunk on milk no matter now much you drink).


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## bigdog (27 September 2018)

i'm worried

looks to be close this month

I need A2M to kick on by tomorrow
APT is also looking better


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## PZ99 (27 September 2018)

I reckon A2M will run like hell after the October peak.

Meanwhile I'm still in the basement... washing the cars


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## HelloU (27 September 2018)

bigdog said:


> i'm worried
> 
> looks to be close this month
> 
> ...



i am thinking about emailing that lady to encourage her to bring forward her next remuneration installment and dump that on-market tomoz .......

in all seriousness SM1 is the flip-side to all that .....(but losing some heavies soon/already?)


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## peter2 (28 September 2018)

EOM *September* 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO -1.7% this month (YTD +1.5%)

-------------------------
@bigdog holds onto the lead.

-------------------------
_LEADER:_ *bigdog* *+49%*

_Second:_ *Knobby22* *+47%*
_Third:_ *robusta* *+42%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ *Knobby22 +10%* (MYX), *systematic +10%* (HZN)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *nil*

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ *12* (33%)


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## bigdog (29 September 2018)

Peter

Your total gain/loss % calculation is based upon the total of the five % gains less % losses and divided by 5 and reports my gain is 48.8%




I have purchased the five shares I tipped and my net profit is about 30%

I have just loaded my five shares into Excel and included the $ gain or $ loss for the five shares since the start of year
Total of my five share prices is $43.465 at January 2 2018
Total of my five share prices is $61.715 at Sept 28 2018
Net Gain for my five share prices is $18.25 at Sept 28
$18.25/$43.465 represents weighted gain of 29.6%




Are there any comments on choice of methods?


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## Knobby22 (30 September 2018)

bigdog said:


> Peter
> 
> Your total gain/loss % calculation is based upon the total of the five % gains less % losses and divided by 5 and reports my gain is 48.8%
> 
> ...



In real life I sold my Enn shares and bought APT for 8.19. So happy Dgr has come good. Having the best 6 months in a long time.


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## peter2 (30 September 2018)

Your calculation of % gain is incorrect 18.25/43.465 = 42.0%

I average all the %gains/losses with the assumption of an equal value purchase of all five selections.




The second calculation doesn't invest an equal amount in all selections. The initial investments are weighted by the share price.

Percentages are tricky numbers to use.

An example of their trickiness I often remember is this. If an investment loses 50% in one year and gains 100% next year. The fund manager can claim an average gain of 25% pa (100-50 /2). What's the real gain on the investment after two years?


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## bigdog (1 October 2018)

peter2

Thank very much in helping my understand your calculation which I agree with

John


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## bigdog (17 October 2018)

Peter
I am in big trouble with my tips crashing in October currently 22%
today APT crashed 19%

John


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## peter2 (31 October 2018)

Last day for Monthly Nov comp. 

_Yearly comp_:  Do we have a new leader?  Have any of the top selectors survived the brutal Oct 18 sell-off?  Is anyone still showing a profit?  We'll find out after tonight's close.


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## peter2 (31 October 2018)

There's been another leadership spill!  This time it's in our yearly comp.

Only four sets of selections made a gain this month. One due to it's "golden" luster.


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## peter2 (31 October 2018)

EOM October 2018 update for yearly comp: XAO *-6.6%* this month (YTD *-5.1%*)

-------------------------
New leader, congrats @Knobby22

_"Sell in May and go away, but remember to buy in November. "_

-------------------------
_LEADER:_ *Knobby22* *+31%*

_Second:_ *robusta* +*19%*
_Third_: *bigdog* *+16%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ *explod* +12%

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *nil*

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ 11 (30%)


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## Knobby22 (8 November 2018)

APT steaming back. Bigdog should come close to being back on top.
Have sold by AZ1 and MYX shares as they have run out of steam. only own CSL and DGR now.


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## peter2 (8 November 2018)

APT was always a good chance to reverse, but I'm not interested due to the enthusiasm for the Senate inquiry into alternative finance companies. 

MYX, I've started a partial position and will add after further price rises (~1.25, SL at 1.00).


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## peter2 (30 November 2018)

End of Nov and while I wait for the ASX to close I wonder if the rally in APT has helped bigdog or do we have another new leader (robusta) thanks the the rally in ALU. The stagnant POG hasn't helped explod. 

Or maybe the current leader Knobby22 still leads going into December. 

My IT dept must wait until after 4:35pm for the prices to settle on the ASX website. Rest assured I'll get them working once the time is right. No Friday drinks until it's done. 
----------------------------

@Joe Blow  Is it time to start a new thread for the 2019 Yearly comp? 
We average 30 participants, perhaps if we open it earlier we'll entice a few more. 

However, I like to reduce my workload a little by reducing the number of stocks selected from 5 to 3 or 4.


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## Knobby22 (30 November 2018)

Yea, I think 5 is one too many.


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## Joe Blow (30 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> @Joe Blow  Is it time to start a new thread for the 2019 Yearly comp?
> We average 30 participants, perhaps if we open it earlier we'll entice a few more.
> 
> However, I like to reduce my workload a little by reducing the number of stocks selected from 5 to 3 or 4.




Yes, I agree it would be best to get the 2019 FY competition entry thread underway soon to maximise the number of participants in the coming year. I'm more than happy to agree to either three or four entries per participant. Whatever works for you is fine by me.

Thank you again for all your hard work in keeping the full year competition alive and the monthly updates coming in. I sincerely appreciate your efforts as I'm sure many others do.


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## peter2 (30 November 2018)

OK I'm happy with 4 selections  . . .

and how about everyone post their reasons for their top pick for 2019 in the stock specific thread. 

Just a few reasons why they think this stock will be higher in 2019.


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## Joe Blow (30 November 2018)

peter2 said:


> OK I'm happy with 4 selections  . . .
> 
> and how about everyone post their reasons for their top pick for 2019 in the stock specific thread.
> 
> Just a few reasons why they think this stock will be higher in 2019.




Sounds good to me. Posting reasons helps provide context for people's decisions, and more posts in stock threads can only be a good thing.


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## peter2 (30 November 2018)

EOM *November 2018* update for yearly comp: XAO *-2.6%* this month (YTD *-7.7%*)

-------------------------
@Knobby22 holds unto the lead, but the others are closing in. 
It may even come down to divs unless gold catches a bid. 

-------------------------
_LEADER_: *Knobby22* *+25%*

_Second:_ *robusta* *+21%*
_Third_: *bigdog* *+20%*
_Fourth_: *explod* *+18%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ nothing worth mentioning

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ nil

_# competitors beating the XAO:_ 10 (28%)


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## Knobby22 (3 January 2019)

How did I go Peter?


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## peter2 (3 January 2019)

My apologies, this is something else I've got to catch up with.


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## explod (3 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> How did I go Peter?



Peter is very busy doing a good job, 

but look out as I think I am breathing down your neck Knobby22.


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## explod (3 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> My apologies, this is something else I've got to catch up with.



You just take your time Peter as I want you to set it for yours truly to win the big 2019 one.


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## peter2 (3 January 2019)

Thanks, it's going to take longer than usual as pixel's code that allows me to download all the EOD data won't look back to Dec 31st.

Of the top four I've done so far it's going to be very close and I might have to look at the dividends that were paid during 2018 to find the winners. 

I'm working on it now.  
OMG what happens if a "guest" tipster wins?  eg M.Roth 2018


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## peter2 (3 January 2019)

Results are in and forwarded to @Joe Blow for approval to publish.


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## peter2 (3 January 2019)

Without further ado, drum roll please. . . . . . 

_Winner for 2018 yearly comp is_:  *Robusta*
_2nd_: *explod*
_3rd_: *Knobby22*




I've added the divs paid throughout 2018 to the EOY prices and fortunately the order wasn't changed. 
It did bring 2nd/3rd closer. 

Would the winners please check the results as I've manually added >200 prices to the comp spreadsheet and got the divs from the asx webpage.


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## peter2 (3 January 2019)

As for the rest of us, only 7 of 36 ended up with a profit.


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## systematic (3 January 2019)

Thank you so much, @peter2 as always you do a stellar job!

Well done robusta, explod and Knobby22!

I guess this is the appropriate place to whinge.  Seems like only a couple months ago all mine bar KCN were in profit.  KCN's 50% loss meant for a pretty average (but still positive) result.  The end of the year slaughtered me!
Whinge over, lol

Well it was an interesting year - thanks everyone!


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## peter2 (3 January 2019)

Yes the EOY selloff thumped us all except for robusta and explod.
Notice how the EOY rally in gold helped explod's performance. 



_Notes_: I have to "feel" for bigdog who led for 8 consecutive months. 
explod's year would have been better if today's news re PLS was announced a few days earlier.


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## Joe Blow (3 January 2019)

Congratulations robusta, explod and Knobby22! 

Please contact me via PM to claim your prizes.

Well done to everyone else for participating. Here's a special participation medal for the other 33 entrants. 




Best of luck to all in the 2019 competition.


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## systematic (3 January 2019)

Love those extra bits of analysis @peter2


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## peter2 (4 January 2019)

Here are the equity curves for all those that ended the year in profit and a few that had at least +20% sometime throughout the year. 

These curves certainly show how the market selloff impacted our portfolios and how the gold rally helped the "gold bug".


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## So_Cynical (4 January 2019)

Thanks Peter - great work.


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