# Unusual volume alerts!



## stockGURU (15 September 2009)

I thought it might be useful to start a thread where people could alert other ASF members to companies that are experiencing a sudden change in the amount of volume being traded or unusual patterns of volume being traded.

We all have different stocks on our watchlists and thought this thread could be a way of alerting others on ASF to unusual amounts of volume in stocks that others may not be watching.

Am hoping this thread could be useful in the same way that the Potential Breakouts and Outstanding Breakouts threads are.


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## springhill (17 September 2009)

OK here's one for SYS, 10 mill traded in one hit this morn.
What can be determined from this, is it an attempt at a price cap that didn't go according to plan?

7 1:04:06 pm 5 100,000 0.1 $5,000 1 
6 12:42:37 pm 5.1 100,000 0.1 $5,100 1 
*5 10:49:04 am 5 10,005,050 0.1 $500,252 1* 
3 - 4 10:49:04 am 5.1 194,950 0.6 $9,942 2 
2 10:25:19 am 5.7 14,066 0.1 $802 1 
1 10:25:19 am 5.6 22,934   $1,284 1


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## explod (17 September 2009)

stockGURU said:


> I thought it might be useful to start a thread where people could alert other ASF members to companies that are experiencing a sudden change in the amount of volume being traded or unusual patterns of volume being traded.
> 
> We all have different stocks on our watchlists and thought this thread could be a way of alerting others on ASF to unusual amounts of volume in stocks that others may not be watching.
> 
> Am hoping this thread could be useful in the same way that the Potential Breakouts and Outstanding Breakouts threads are.




Had crossed my mind some time back but was not sure if such a context would stand alone but charts would go with it.   Should be a valuable thread IMHO


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## Wysiwyg (17 September 2009)

Yeah a great idea. I look forward to the contributions from o.p.


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## Uncle Festivus (17 September 2009)

Advancing on volume??? (Change extension to csv, open in Excel)


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## springhill (17 September 2009)

springhill said:


> OK here's one for SYS, 10 mill traded in one hit this morn.
> What can be determined from this, is it an attempt at a price cap that didn't go according to plan?
> 
> 7 1:04:06 pm 5 100,000 0.1 $5,000 1
> ...




P.S. That Q was not rhetorical  If i am reading this right, why would someone put 10 mill shares on the sell, only to have them snapped up in one trade?


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## explod (17 September 2009)

springhill said:


> P.S. That Q was not rhetorical  If i am reading this right, why would someone put 10 mill shares on the sell, only to have them snapped up in one trade?




They may well be buying and selling to themselves.  I suspect (and would like some comment from others) that big players and the companies themselves play this game to keep prices at certain levels for their own ends.  No proof but happens so much in certain ways that I think some trading/price may be controlled this way.  ????


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## nunthewiser (17 September 2009)

previously organised between 2 parties at an agreed price ? dunno merely speculating as an off mkt transfer probably easier to control


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## Uncle Festivus (17 September 2009)

springhill said:


> P.S. That Q was not rhetorical  If i am reading this right, why would someone put 10 mill shares on the sell, only to have them snapped up in one trade?




crossed trade, 

http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-quote?S=SYS&E=ASX

http://www.asx.com.au/resources/education/basics/crossings.htm


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## johnnyg (17 September 2009)

TSO 

Similar previous price action, Price makes a high, then drifts back down on low volume, Big volume then occurs on strong up moves.

With the last drift however there been a big increase in volume over the last 4 days, and prices have stayed static.

Hard one for me to call, I'd want to see prices move in one direction rather then trying to guess which way.


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## kenny (17 September 2009)

*CVN*.

Just read the CVN thread.

Cheers,

Kenny


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## solomon (17 September 2009)

Have a look at HEG today 7,717,366 traded. Nothing has come close to that volume since Oct 07 when there were some very large up moves in the price.


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## nunthewiser (17 September 2009)

Thanks for that one johnnyg

nice low % loss on stopout points , will have a squiz at it properly in the morning 

this one suits my style

cheers


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## johnnyg (17 September 2009)

No worries Nun, check out BLY, similar sort of setup.


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## bowman (21 September 2009)

Lots of insto activity here. Hartley's has a 'buy' on YTC  - as reported by Bromby this morning.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26102932-15023,00.html


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## bowman (22 September 2009)

A 300k buyer appeared very briefly during yesterdays YTC closing auction.

He's back again this morning - for the time being.


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## bowman (22 September 2009)

This is a similar situation to YTC, in that it appears an insto is selling a large parcel. Watch for the rally when they are done. A good entry atm looks to be 22c.


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## johnnyg (22 September 2009)

Have a SIP.


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## bowman (25 September 2009)

This is only a small blip on the radar so far. A couple of biggish volume days and since then, someone is keen to buy at .009 or less.

A bit of an oddball company in that it has transport software system and services as well as exploration interests.

Maybe one to watch for the speccie hunters out there. 
(PS. I know nothing other than what I see. The only connections I have are fast wireless broadband)
:


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

For those of you who use Volume as a trading tool you may find this interesting.
Something to watch. Ive been working on this concept for a couple of years.
See how you find it in charts you look at.

There are a few "rules" which identify a "Marker or Tag" which include.
(1) 5 x + Average volume
(2) Price isnt appreciably moved ie within the normal ATR
(3) Price immediately acts as support or resistance.
(4) Commonly followed within 3 bars by very clear no demand or no supply bars.

Interested in feedback.

Chart is *UXC* Im all thumbs


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## bowman (28 September 2009)

Tech

Your first rule, 5x + average volume. Is that comparing the most recent daily volume to the previous x number of days, and if so, how many days is x?

Thanks.


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

14 day ema


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## johnnyg (28 September 2009)

Tech, you know about my idea's from previous discussion. Here is that in a system for UXC.

Do you place more value on the signal if the stock has shown previous success using it?


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

J

This is a pre breakout pre breakdown indicator.
I'm looking for volume tags in patterns and in particular consolidations.
Where the pattern or consolidation I in the immediate life of the stock (trend).



> Do you place more value on the signal if the stock has shown previous success using it




No not really just gives you a warm fuzzy feeling I guess.
There is a more to the analysis but wont go into detail as its a work in progress.


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## springhill (28 September 2009)

Is this along the lines of what you are looking for tech?
CXY intraday


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

Re CXY


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## springhill (28 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Re CXY




That particular day there was a boardroom radio report & an increase in substantial holding notice.
Do you cross reference these things when you see that kind of activity on a chart? Or do you see the event and decide whether to act on it from a chart perspective?
Is the current trend important at this point? And can this activity be the pivot for a -ve/+ve reversal?
So even though there was a volume increase, but no price increase at the time, do you take this as positive, as sellers are being absorbed?
Just trying to get to the crux of what you are saying in laymen's terms.


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

I dont look at announcements,cab driver reports or New Ideas horoscope.
But people can do what they feel comfortable with.

All Im interested in is a low risk entry which (Albeit in hinsite) would have been.
I cut losses very short and let the winners run.
In the case in question there would have been a nice setup with good R/R potential.
UXC and CNP have quite a few.(daily charts)
These Tags can be found in all time frames.


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## springhill (28 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> J
> 
> This is a pre breakout pre breakdown indicator.
> I'm looking for volume tags in patterns and in particular consolidations.
> Where the pattern or consolidation I in the immediate life of the stock (trend).




So in this CXY setup (keeping it simple) you are looking for;
1. 5x 14 day volume ma
2. Consolidation pattern
3. Minimal/no disturbance in price at time of volume spike
4. Anything else?

If i'm interpretting what you are saying correctly, then in this play you set a very tight stop loss, but are leaning towards it heading up.
Is this because (to your eye) there are no signals on this chart whether its breakup/breakdown? Or are there?


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## johnnyg (28 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> J
> This is a pre breakout pre breakdown indicator.
> I'm looking for volume tags in patterns and in particular consolidations.
> Where the pattern or consolidation I in the immediate life of the stock (trend).




Sounds very similar to one of the ways I search for my entries. Here is one I P/T from UXC back in July. My scan found the bars I'm interested in, I then eye off each one, UXC showed a nice consolidation pattern (ascending triangle) so I set-up my buy and stop, a few days later the analysis was confirmed.

Look forward to seeing more work from you as it comes along.


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

As I said a work in progress.

I have a number of components I don't wish to release yet.
Working with some very knowledgeable people currently and with a very powerful new addon for metastock this could well prove to be an exciting new methodology.Exciting for me.

Interested in what others "SEE" more so than what I see.
You never know there maybe a component which improves the ideas of volume tags which I havent looked at.

I'll post up any I find interesting.



> Is this because (to your eye) there are no signals on this chart whether its breakup/breakdown? Or are there?




Last hint.
If up a clear indication of no supply in the preceeding bars
If down a clear indication of no demand in preceeding bars.
Then ANY indication of volume COMING in.

Finally dis regard anything that hasnt a Liquidity of $250k (Can set to whatever you like but wouldnt go lower) ON THE LARGE VOLUME DAY. As volume often floods in.


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## springhill (28 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> As I said a work in progress.
> 
> I have a number of components I don't wish to release yet.
> Working with some very knowledgeable people currently and with a very powerful new addon for metastock this could well prove to be an exciting new methodology.Exciting for me.
> ...




Thanks for taking the time, not a trader (investing ATM, though not something i'd write off down the track), but take interest in your posts. Nice to be able to get the gist of them every now & then 
I will be keeping an eye out for setups like this now, even if i dont use them, and try to expand my thinking.


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## johnnyg (28 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> As I said a work in progress.
> 
> I have a number of components I don't wish to release yet.
> Working with some very knowledgeable people currently and with a very powerful new addon for metastock this could well prove to be an exciting new methodology.Exciting for me.
> ...




I cant see 5 x Average volume working very well in a system, well at least from what I've seen playing around with the settings in my system, but I'm sure if someone can make it work Tech, you can. If you wish to see some results of mine let me know.


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

Always interested PM me for my email address.

Re the 5 x -- you could well be right as I said a work in progress and nothing set in stone.

However over a long period of time its been pretty good for me when trading in a discretionary manner.


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## Wysiwyg (28 September 2009)

Okay I have a chart here that has volume spikes in multiples of the average. On the first ellipse hindsight shows that buying took place and the share price duly rose. However on the second ellipse there has been significant spikes in volume over a six week period with a resultant sideways trend. 

Question is (with the second ellipse), how do we know if the higher volume days are accumulation or distribution by looking at the chart I have attached?


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

My take on TRS Past and present.
Click to expand.
Opportunity was in June opportunity to hold on to some profit has been going on since August.


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## tech/a (28 September 2009)

This example came up on tonights search.
Click to expand.Note each tag bar or set remained/s in control.
Price never broke below the bar---its volume acted as support (In that bar).
*So would not expect trading below the low of todays bar.*


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## satanoperca (28 September 2009)

Hi,

Very interesting analysis on Eden Engergy. Thanks for the charts.

Would you expect that if the following days are not proceed by higher highs then the low of today could be tested to fill the gap below todays open?

Cheers


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## alex keaton (28 September 2009)

If you want to track unusual volume on a real time basis then this could be helpful.

Spark’s Intraday Relative Volume Indicator
http://blog.iguana2.com/


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## kam75 (28 September 2009)

stockGURU said:


> I thought it might be useful to start a thread where people could alert other ASF members to companies that are experiencing a sudden change in the amount of volume being traded or unusual patterns of volume being traded.
> 
> We all have different stocks on our watchlists and thought this thread could be a way of alerting others on ASF to unusual amounts of volume in stocks that others may not be watching.
> 
> Am hoping this thread could be useful in the same way that the Potential Breakouts and Outstanding Breakouts threads are.




You talking intraday or end of day volume?  End of day's easy.  I scan for this every night.


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## Wysiwyg (28 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> My take on TRS Past and present.
> Click to expand.



Very much appreciated. Thankyou.


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## tech/a (29 September 2009)

kam75 said:


> You talking intraday or end of day volume?  End of day's easy.  I scan for this every night.




Almost live here.
Plus more.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=AX


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## tech/a (29 September 2009)

> Would you expect that if the following days are not proceed by higher highs then the low of today could be tested to fill the gap below todays open?




High volume bars with range are generally tested.
However its how they are tested that is important.
High volume wide range bars suggest far more weakness than tight range low volume bars.

I would suggest that a filling of this gap given the position the breakout has occured---would be low.


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## satanoperca (29 September 2009)

Thanks Tech, that makes sense. 

I find it fascinating trying to read what is happening in the market based on volume and price. I see it as the only thing that is real and honest not like analyst reports and media articles.

Were your really up at 4.31am today? Don't you sleep.

Cheers


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## alex keaton (29 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Almost live here.
> Plus more.




The Yahoo most active page is not that useful. Just shows what stocks have traded the most. This list will contain the same stocks day in day out. i.e. - Stocks with the most shares on issue

Try this - Shows you the stocks that have unusually high volume compared to what they normally trade BY THIS POINT IN THE DAY (10:40am)


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## satanoperca (29 September 2009)

Tech/A, when looking at extreme volumes of a share do you also look at how the index that share belongs to has performed volume wise that day?

Eg to see if that share was a standalone volume increase or part of a large volume day for the indice.


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## skc (29 September 2009)

I thought this thread would benefit from an actual unusual volume alert.

Packer selling out? or buying back in as he's got cash burning in his pocket?


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## tech/a (29 September 2009)

> Try this




*Alex*---what is this.
How do I get what you have?

*satanoperca*
No I dont. But you could.

*EDE*
Inside day as expected close at 10c 
relatively low volume so now need to see where extremely low volume falls to get an idea of a place for a relatively safe entry---read low risk.
So will watch.


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## alex keaton (29 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> *Alex*---what is this.
> How do I get what you have?




Tech/a

That's a screenshot from Spark. Its a market scan for stocks with unusual intraday volume. 

Compare volume up to the second against previous days/periods volume up to the same second.

The relative volume feature is something new they have recently added. It updates constantly throughout the day.

Much better than looking for volume spikes after hours Often its too late to participate.

Check it out here

http://blog.iguana2.com


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## tech/a (29 September 2009)

Thanks.
Could be what I'm looking for.

Back years ago Market cast had the ability to instantly (When clicking on a column)
tell me in order 
Those stocks with most Volume
Those with most trades
Gap size
Increase in price %
30 mins after trading started I used to look for 
Increase in price supported by number of trades and volume.
So basically get in front of momentum

Was great until they stopped broadcasting data.

Does this have that capability?


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## Wysiwyg (29 September 2009)

> Much better than looking for volume spikes after hours *Often its too **late to participate*.




I don`t think so.


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## satanoperca (29 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> *satanoperca*
> No I dont. But you could.




I will analyze if there is any correlation over the next six months and get back to you.

How about BLY volume today. That was extraordinary


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## johnnyg (29 September 2009)

Someone able to throw up a 10min/hourly chart of SIP for the last 3 days?


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## alex keaton (29 September 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Someone able to throw up a 10min/hourly chart of SIP for the last 3 days?




Here you go

15min, 60min and Market depth for SIP

No unusual volume today (see depth chart popout)


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## alex keaton (29 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Thanks.
> Could be what I'm looking for.
> 
> Back years ago Market cast had the ability to instantly (When clicking on a column)
> ...




Yeah. It does all that.


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## johnnyg (29 September 2009)

Thanks for the Chart Alex, certainly looks like a powerful piece of software!

Here is my thoughts re SIP using your chart. FXL looks like another possible candidate.


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## johnnyg (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> Packer selling out? or buying back in as he's got cash burning in his pocket?




Perhaps the truce is off.

Similar sort of pattern in SGT also.


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## tech/a (30 September 2009)

Ive been trialing a new method designed to find and trade outlier moves.
Some success so will post a few here just to see how they go.
Certainly wouldnt recommend following these with $$s.
EDE and NWE are the first 2 The simple method is shown on the chart


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## springhill (30 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> Ive been trialing a new method designed to find and trade outlier moves.
> Some success so will post a few here just to see how they go.
> Certainly wouldnt recommend following these with $$s.
> EDE and NWE are the first 2 The simple method is shown on the chart




Can you define an 'outlier move' plz tech?


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## tech/a (30 September 2009)

springhill said:


> Can you define an 'outlier move' plz tech?




Best shown.These have intregued many of us for many years.
think I'm close to cracking the buggers! We will see.
I did trade this didnt get it all but most of it.


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## johnnyg (1 October 2009)

SEV & SGT both up and out today, however both closed off the high so seems abit of selling came in. Any Fundamentalists know if there's a relation between the 2 just for interests sake?


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## tech/a (1 October 2009)

Other than the pattern in each I didnt think the volume was of any real interest J.


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## tech/a (1 October 2009)

Another interesting volume analysis.


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## ThingyMajiggy (1 October 2009)

Interesting volume on MEL.


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## $20shoes (3 October 2009)

tech/a said:


> Another interesting volume analysis.




This is a great thread. Tech, hope you get some newbies in taking note...nothing like stripping it all away and getting to the heart of the matter. 
Very important lesson.

two things - 

i) in your "outlier" moves scenario, I assume you are trying to preempt a high volume day, so your rules are not the same as what you were discussing earlier re: 5 x vol etc. In these scenarios, I assume you have a setup day? Is it stepping up over a range where volume or range has dried up?

ii) with your other method where you are tagging high volume days, do you give any discretionary weight to stocks in either a secondary correction or primary downtrend? Or do you find this is where you are commonly finding your setups? The reason I ask is that I would assume the common scenario might be that at some point where the market looks weak, the smarter money steps in to soak up supply. That is, it needs to looks like stopping volume...


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## tech/a (5 October 2009)

*Hi Shoes.*



$20shoes said:


> This is a great thread. Tech, hope you get some newbies in taking note...nothing like stripping it all away and getting to the heart of the matter.
> Very important lesson.
> 
> two things -
> ...




As I said work in progress however have come a fair way so far.

I use > 3 x volume these high volume Tags or Markers are very often found in *prolonged accumulation or/and distribution patterns*.
You'll find that again often those extreme volume days of > 5 x average volume are more a sign of selling than buying (Confusing I know--price spikes up and volume is massive--just has to be renewed interest---right---) this can be seen in the next bar which is often a reversal bar and an inside day on wide range days.

What we are actually seeing is often an *EXHAUSTION* of sellers.Until sellers at higher prices are exhausted a stock has no way of moving forward for a prolonged period.
So I see these Markers as signals that interest is well and truly there but sellers need to be removed,as you'll note when you look at charts this often takes 2 or more attempts at a price level before succeeding. Often moving to a new higher level to start all over again.

But what is noticeable is the volume bar becomes a support in it self. The volume traded at that price becomes a fair price and god value so price *RARELY* falls below is for more than a bar before moving back up.

So *IM LOOKING* for a low risk entry and that's often not the next few days. I find any trading below 50% retracement of the marker is a good point to start.
Its a method you need patience for as it will move ahead only when selling is removed and buying *MAINTAINS* a steady pace.
We don't know how it will pan out---maybe an outlier move maybe a sustained trend---rarely a reversal.
*To me I'm finding momentum and placing myself inside it.*
Often on a down day on *EXTREMELY LOW* volume.

There is more on the Money management side which makes these exciting but suffice to say position sizing is conservative until its crystal clear its off.
_This is more about low volume reversal days than high volume up days._



> ii) with your other method where you are tagging high volume days, do you give any discretionary weight to stocks in either a secondary correction or primary downtrend? Or do you find this is where you are commonly finding your setups? The reason I ask is that I would assume the common scenario might be that at some point where the market looks weak, the smarter money steps in to soak up supply. That is, it needs to looks like stopping volume...




Yes.
I'm looking for prolonged corrective moves and there are heaps now.
(None in Oct 2007!!). The longer the move the more tags.
The analysis is where is it at now. Whats happening. You analyse the consolidation.

Sometimes it will be in an up move.Often a wave 4 so we need to ascertain whether this is a distribution or a continuation of the trend.
Ive noted that in these cases Range is less relative to price than in the accumulation phase.

So the *key is* minimise risk and place myself/ourselves in a position where we can get massive R/R. Along those lines EXIT becomes a very important topic we need to be able to recognise when *Selling IS selling!* Not often clear on a daily chart. So at 50% gain I always place a trailing stop.

So YES I agree with your summary.
Let me know if you find anything (Nuance) of interest.

A bit of crossing on this thread but I think I'll only post these ideas and methods here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17452


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## tech/a (5 October 2009)

As in *THIS THREAD* not the other.


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## $20shoes (5 October 2009)

Thanks  Tech. Appreciate the detail you've put into your posts here. l like what you are trying to do...very interesting...


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## jancha (5 October 2009)

stockGURU said:


> I thought it might be useful to start a thread where people could alert other ASF members to companies that are experiencing a sudden change in the amount of volume being traded or unusual patterns of volume being traded.
> 
> We all have different stocks on our watchlists and thought this thread could be a way of alerting others on ASF to unusual amounts of volume in stocks that others may not be watching.
> 
> Am hoping this thread could be useful in the same way that the Potential Breakouts and Outstanding Breakouts threads are.




Would BCC qualify in this thread? Volume up to 99m


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## surfingman (5 October 2009)

BCC  	        $0.065 	$0.020 (44.4%) 	 95.94M 	 19958%
BCCO 	$0.021 	$0.008 (61.5%) 	8.61M 	8126% 

BCC volume up 19958%, I am sure it qualifies.


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## tech/a (5 October 2009)

jancha said:


> Would BCC qualify in this thread? Volume up to 99m




Sure and note the Markers prior.
This is a very wide range Bar on massive volume (Today) so would expect an inside day tommorow.
Click to expand.


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## jancha (5 October 2009)

tech/a said:


> Sure and note the Markers prior.
> This is a very wide range Bar on massive volume (Today) so would expect an inside day tommorow.
> Click to expand.




Thanks Tech but when you say an inside trade day tomorrow what does that actually mean? Hows good old Moana anyway? Still a bit cold down there i see. The warmer weather seems to come later & later each year. Part of the reason for heading North.


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## tech/a (5 October 2009)

An inside day is one where the high and low of the day fits inside the high and low of the previous day. In the chart above the 3rd bar in is an inside day.

Moana---sensational--- all year round, love the sound of the sea at night one of the reasons I dont move North!


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## johnnyg (5 October 2009)

Does this sound about right Tech?


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## tech/a (5 October 2009)

Yep thats the pattern and thats the accumulation I'm on about.
See Chart and click to expand


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## nunthewiser (6 October 2009)

as pointed out by a visitor to chat yesterday ..... " scar" .....cheers


yesterdays vols on ORO might qualify for unusual on no news


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## tech/a (6 October 2009)

BCC got our inside day today.


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## nunthewiser (7 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> as pointed out by a visitor to chat yesterday ..... " scar" .....cheers
> 
> 
> yesterdays vols on ORO might qualify for unusual on no news





 thanks "scar" .....nicely spotted indeed . still no news .........


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## johnnyg (7 October 2009)

> Oroya is focused on the discovery of large, bulk tonnage gold, base metal and nickel deposits




Spec Goldie from the looks of it nun. Someone might know something that the others don't, and what a time to release some news on a new gold deposit or some results from drilling.


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## $20shoes (7 October 2009)

MLB has attracted two days of high volume, both with very small range.
You can see that a lot of volume was exchanged during the sharp selloff in late August. The SP looked to be in a rout, until  significant volume stepped in here, at a technical point of support that has been tested several times before. 

Anyway we have a low risk setup here with stops @1.54

What ya think?


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## johnnyg (7 October 2009)

LOL get out $20shoes. I was just about to post the same chart, and still will. :

Interesting that today's total volume was traded through the ASX, where as the 2/10/09 volume through the ASX was only 301,894 compared to 3 million on the chart so there was a either a pre market or after market trade of 2.7 milion shares.


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## $20shoes (7 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> LOL get out $20shoes. I was just about to post the same chart, and still will. :
> 
> Interesting that today's total volume was traded through the ASX, where as the 2/10/09 volume through the ASX was only 301,894 compared to 3 million on the chart so there was a either a pre market or after market trade of 2.7 milion shares.




Haha -I tell you what. My shout at the bar then  interesting - i hadn't scrutinised the parcels...


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## tech/a (8 October 2009)

*SRI
BCC all to plan
AED
SEN cooking nicely*


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## MrBurns (8 October 2009)

Can anyone explain why there is always such a large volume of Fairfax traded.


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## johnnyg (10 October 2009)

Could be a favorite with Institutions MrB?

BEC could be one to watch, would provide a nice tight entry.


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## MrBurns (10 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Could be a favorite with Institutions MrB?
> 
> .




Dunno why though it never does anything except disappoint, I just bought some thinking it has to go somewhere soon or they might as well give up.


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## johnnyg (12 October 2009)

Nice move on MLB today.

AED must be just about ready to enter Tech.


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## tech/a (12 October 2009)

Good work JG

MLB ,textbook
AED ,setting up nicely
SIR ,keeps on keeping on and my old favorite not mentioned in this thread did it again for me today FMS.


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## Arbinter (12 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Nice move on MLB today.
> 
> AED must be just about ready to enter Tech.




Bloody brilliant move by MLB - textbook indeed.

I'm still having a bit of an issue with picking some of these. For example

PEN - Beginning of the 14 day cycle saw a massive spike in volume, with a relatively wide range. Next few days indicated a lack of demand. Yet, given todays low volume and tight range, are we looking at a potential entry point? Am I misreading this?

It doesn't 'feel' right (Useful statement in a technical analysis thread )

Edit: Seems to me that I've not given consideration to the lack of resistance in price movements. No doubt countless other issues


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## tech/a (12 October 2009)

PEN.
Maybe this is some help.
Think its still cooking but is low risk setup
and here is why.


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## satanoperca (12 October 2009)

Tech/A,

This may be a stupid question but what is hidden selling? 

Thanks to all those that have contributed to this thread, has provided some interesting ideas and thoughts based on volume.

I shout you all a beer if you were in the same pub.

Cheers


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## tech/a (12 October 2009)

satanoperca said:


> Tech/A,
> 
> This may be a stupid question but what is hidden selling?
> 
> ...




Before I get to the question also have a look at NWE its price action is classic.

To the question of *hidden selling*.
Wide range Extreme volume days are usually bought about by massive selling rather than buying.This is often hidden and doesnt become clear until the price action of the next day.
If it *WAS* buying then price would *CONTINUE* to rise as buyers rush to snap up a bargain.

If you look at the chart above you'll see 3 examples of selling and one of clear buying. It doesnt mean that demand isnt there ---quite the opposite.

*But for stock to rise there must be either.
(1) Sustained and continued buying
(2) Exhaustion of sellers
(3) Withdrawl of sellers from the market.*
As traders we will always be on the look out for *LOW RISK* buying opportunities so best to wait and see what the next day brings before rushing in.
Once the next day is seen we must then find evidence of (1),(2),or (3)
Then we have our low risk buys.

I think the charts mentioned above have shown some excellent examples.
Most are still waiting for the Stochastic signal to finish cooking but look classic at this point.
Agressive traders could take the setup before confirmation of setup if they judge risk to be acceptable V return.

Ive learn patience personally---sure you miss a few but you miss being stopped prematurely more often!


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## satanoperca (12 October 2009)

Thanks Tech/A,

Just trying to get my head around your answer while trying to read through Master the Markets.

I think for me it is a case of analysing and reflecting on past price action like NWE. 



> Wide range Extreme volume days are usually bought about by massive selling rather than buying.This is often hidden and doesnt become clear until the price action of the next day.




Ah, just go it I think. Another piece of the puzzle.

One more question on NWE. The chart shows days of extreme volume and wide ranging bar proceeded with a down bar the next day, however price trend was still up. On the proceeding day still with high volume and wide ranging bars but a close lower than open is it because the market just overshoot what the true demand/strength was. Ie momentum was not as strong as price action of the previous day to keep the upward movement from reaching further new highs - min correction. Hope that makes sense


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## Arbinter (12 October 2009)

tech/a said:


> Before I get to the question also have a look at NWE its price action is classic.
> 
> To the question of *hidden selling*.
> Wide range Extreme volume days are usually bought about by massive selling rather than buying.This is often hidden and doesnt become clear until the price action of the next day.
> ...




So, given this, and given that your assessment of AED as still cooking, would you see the two as analogous? Hidden Selling on the Major Bar - though the selling on the next day comes from an even higher volume of selling. Perhaps in the case of AED a support stop @0.61 with low risk support of 0.625. 

Gonna watch these with interest


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## tech/a (13 October 2009)

Analysis of any kind isn't an exact science.

How we all would love to be able to consider price action and say unequivocally that the next X Bars will do Y.

In answer to both,satanoperca and Arbinter
All we can do as analysts is place ourselves in front of momentum and enjoy the ride.

To successfully do this we need to:- 
(1) Identify factors which indicate that there is a momentum at play.
(2) Find a pause in momentum so we can hop on with the least possible downside.
(3) Constantly monitor price as it tests each new low and each new high.
To determine who is winning the battle of perceived value.

So both charts will give clues as they develop.
The reason for presenting them here is to have those interested follow and analyse them as they develop.
At the end of the day even ONE making a 5R return and 3 making 1R losses is indeed a positive and welcome outcome.

So as an *educational exercise *lets watch and analyse these 4.
AED
NWE
PEN
and SEN


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## satanoperca (13 October 2009)

Excellent Idea.

Will have a look at the charts.

Cheers


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## lukeaye (13 October 2009)

Hi tech,

PEN, Looks like it could be out of steam to me.

From what im looking at, the last thrust was very weak, it has overlapped last S/R line.

Volume is also concerning, the move down from the top, was on half the volume of the previous bar, but similar spread. Is there now a lack of demand?

As to the trade, your probabilty of success is not as high as it could be, but the R/R given the good entry and tight stop you can run, could still make the trade a decent one.

SEN, much the same but gives very good R/R.
AED looks good, volume agrees, inside buying going on there.

EDIT: O you already covered above! sorry didnt see that, i thought u were asking for an analysis


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## tech/a (13 October 2009)

Update.
NWE Just some comments


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## tech/a (13 October 2009)

COK worth a look.


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## satanoperca (13 October 2009)

Thanks Tech/A,

What is the third pane down in your above post, must depict volume. tried replicating it in Amibroker.

COK could be interesting, based in similar volume spikes one could expect a pull back over the next few days. 

Could these large volume spikes be caused in general from day tradies getting on the gravy train and pushing the price and volume up as it is a wide bar?

These same traders getting off the minute the price slightly retraces.

I need to look at more to come to any conclusion.


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## tech/a (13 October 2009)

> must depict volume




Yep


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## $20shoes (13 October 2009)

SDG has some merit. High vol bar has provided support. Might be one to watch...is doing the right things for now.


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## nunthewiser (14 October 2009)

LKO vol spike  today if anyone intrested

on no news


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## skc (14 October 2009)

$20shoes said:


> SDG has some merit. High vol bar has provided support. Might be one to watch...is doing the right things for now.




FWIW that high volume was Packer selling out... on a cross trade from memory.


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## $20shoes (14 October 2009)

skc said:


> FWIW that high volume was Packer selling out... on a cross trade from memory.




Interesting that it hasn't damaged the stock any ( factored in I suppose)  and SP is now priced at a premium to what Packer sold out for. I'm waiting for signs of demand here - seems to be able to be pushed up and down on reasonably small volumes.


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## johnnyg (14 October 2009)

Nice repeating pattern.


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## JonnoB (19 October 2009)

A couple you may be interested in.

NHC: Volume has been increasing over the last couple of weeks, but the price has not increased that much. Is it distribution?




MIN: Probably doesn't meet the average volume requirement, but a few squat bars with volume spikes that have been followed by an up move.


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## Vizion (19 October 2009)

As very much a newbie at readings charts and volume  I will have a stab at both those charts. The high volume with not much price move is indicative of selling not buying. Small spreads with high volume I think means supply is greater than demand and a sell off at what large holders think is a high before the div on the 23rd which has probably kept people in as well.

The gap up in August (NHC) was to keep traders in the market and the Mid to end of September volume again was to keep traders in the market.

I probably have that ass about & I'm more than happy to be corrected by wiser heads as I'm still very new to this!


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## nunthewiser (19 October 2009)

NHC is because of the very high yield divvie due soon. dont know ex date off top of head but apparently its a bewty . i do not hold but been trading it from time to time over the last 2 months


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## Vizion (19 October 2009)

I thought that to Nun, I nearly even jumped on a few weeks ago too but figured I had missed the boat as far as a div play was concerned.

I still think that volume might be more indicative of selling not buying due to the spread. As I said though happy to learn from wiser heads 

If the price goes up over the next couple of days I am dead wrong, if it  stays the same though, that's allot of effort for not much gain in price.


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## nunthewiser (19 October 2009)

Vizion said:


> I still think that volume might be more indicative of selling not buying due to the spread. As I said though happy to learn from wiser heads
> 
> .




that may be the case m8 . i cannot help any further,other than my previous general divvy comment as not been watching the depths/action close enough over the last week or so to give an opinion,,,busy elswhere


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## Wysiwyg (19 October 2009)

Vizion said:


> I still think that volume might be more indicative of selling not buying due to the spread. As I said though happy to learn from wiser heads




Not a wiser head but if you look at the volume increase and average spread back on 28 Aug. 2009 and "assumed" it was "indicative" of selling not buying then you would be wrong.
Please provide information on your "indicative of selling due to spread"  because I also want to learn. 

Thanks.


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## Kalvin (19 October 2009)

POZ went ballistic today; very significant increase in the volume of trades compared to past few weeks.  Interesting announcement from the company, with, maybe, a turn in the global economy predicting an increase in demand for phosphate.


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## Wysiwyg (20 October 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Not a wiser head but if you look at the volume increase and average spread back on 28 Aug. 2009 and "assumed" it was "indicative" of selling not buying then you would be wrong.
> Please provide information on your "indicative of selling due to spread"  because I also want to learn.
> 
> Thanks.




Disregarding the price range, I have a copy of some timely knowledge on the subject of volume by Brian Shannon.

Big Volume without further upside equals distribution
Big Volume without further downside equals accumulation
*Volume tends to peak at turning points*
Volume often precedes price movement


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## Vizion (20 October 2009)

Wysiwyg I did not say the August push was selling, I said it was a gap up to keep traders in the market. That I think was buying not selling, to keep the people who had bought through early June to August in and not sell. At that point its bullish. The same goes for mid September.
I still think the volume spike in the last coupe of days is selling.

I'm no chart reader as I said, I'm a complete novice 

My reasoning is based on my reading to date on volume by Tom Williams and Mr Shannon also. I'm not offering advice just an opinion,  more to get an opinion back from more experienced traders here as I'm still very much trying to get my head around it all!  Cheers for the reply


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## GumbyLearner (21 October 2009)

TAS 

The highest volume the last two days in a long while.


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## Skip1jz (21 October 2009)

Biggest volume to date traded on Excalibur Mining Corp. (EXM) today, follows some large volumes traded on Mon and Tues.


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## $20shoes (21 October 2009)

HDF has attracted unusual amounts of volume since its correction. The volumes are on thin range and often come in as stopping volume. Price tends to move up after spikes, suggestive of accumulation.
The amount traded is dissipating but also cognizant that there has been small demand over $1.03 to date.


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## suhm (21 October 2009)

that's orbis buying up HDF, their up to 14.5% so not sure how much more they are gonna buy


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## $20shoes (21 October 2009)

suhm said:


> that's orbis buying up HDF, their up to 14.5% so not sure how much more they are gonna buy




They're everywhere at the moment. Were also accumulating SDG, a stock  mentioned in this thread.

OF course we don't really care who is soaking up the supply...just as long as the SP does the right thing on a nice R/R presented.


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## lukeaye (26 October 2009)

*Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts*

AWB has had a very large increase in volume recently. Unfortunately i timed my entry a little early, but looks like it may have now finished basing. Should be ready for a big move soon. I hope its up!


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## johnnyg (27 October 2009)

Here's one I find interesting.

Been watching SPN as it showed up on a divergence scan (bearish) the other night, also noticed that whilst prices have been moving higher, volume has been declining, I thought it looked weak. 

Today's Price action however I find interesting, Broader market down, alot of stocks showing wide ranging down bars on an increase in volume. Now we had a big increase in Volume, however it was quite a tight ranging bar, suggesting to me that someone was more then happy to pick up the stock from perhaps panicking sellers.

Who knows, I might be totally wrong (currently averaging around 55%) so there is a good chance, but thought it was worth sharing.


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## skyQuake (27 October 2009)

CCU, last hr of trading. Crazy!


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## springhill (3 November 2009)

GCR had an unusual volume mid-session, maybe even more pertinent given a low volume day when most were out on the sauce at the races.

1 14 11:29:49 am 2.3 5,733 $132   
2 13 11:29:49 am 2.2 834,267 $18,354   
3 12 11:27:56 am 2.2 1,000,000 $22,000   
4 11 11:22:40 am 2.1 500,000 $10,500


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## ColB (4 November 2009)

> Originally Posted by Springhill
> 
> GCR had an unusual volume mid-session, maybe even more pertinent given a low volume day when most were out on the sauce at the races.
> 
> ...




Think those buyers may have known something we did not know until todays announcement Springhill!!


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## springhill (4 November 2009)

ColB said:


> Think those buyers may have known something we did not know until todays announcement Springhill!!




I picked some up before the big buyer came in, liked the look of 2.2c. Good timing  Will continue to on any dips back to this level purely on the UCG factor, i'm liking their positioning relative to CNX & LNC.


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## $20shoes (5 November 2009)

$20shoes said:


> HDF has attracted unusual amounts of volume since its correction. The volumes are on thin range and often come in as stopping volume. Price tends to move up after spikes, suggestive of accumulation.
> The amount traded is dissipating but also cognizant that there has been small demand over $1.03 to date.





I'm still stalking HDF after the huge volumes have dissipated. The stock hasn't substantially corrected with market sentiment, and volatility has dried up. 
Higher prices are still being rejected, so a move that clears the last few candles ( around $1.03) might signal renewed demand....one to watch....


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## nunthewiser (20 November 2009)

The mind boggles.............


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## CapnBirdseye (20 November 2009)

Someone is obviously pyramiding up in to their position.  Nice low risk entry.


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## lukeaye (20 November 2009)

imagine if he doubled his money farrrrrrrrrrrk


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