# Technical Analysts - can you explain this 18% rise with charts?



## Steve C (17 September 2012)

Hi everyone,

Just hoping the experienced technical analysts on here could demonstrate to me the power of good chart reading. I am beginner and have spent the last few months reading many books on risk management and positive expectancy and am now just starting to get into technical analysis.

I noticed GRY on 14/9/12 went up 18% in one day. There were no announcements that would have contributed to this. Could someone please take the time to show the beginners here any signs/indicators on a chart that would have given strong buy signals on the 13/9, if any?


I have attached a chart but I am not sure if it shows enough information.

Greatly appreciated.


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## Joules MM1 (17 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> I have attached a chart but I am not sure if it shows enough information.




first

what is the discrepancy within the volumes ? which one is correct?.....

the line chart is a distortion, stick with the bars or ohlc

in this instance, the indicia is best suited somewhere else, allow clarity is the first key with data


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## skc (17 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> I noticed GRY on 14/9/12 went up 18% in one day. There were no announcements that would have contributed to this. Could someone please take the time to show the beginners here any signs/indicators on a chart that would have given strong buy signals on the 13/9, if any?




You can't always pick these. Yes you can find indicators that suggest a potential move, but unless you look across all stocks with the same indicator reading and analyse the chance of breakout occurances, you'd be just "curve fitting".

Re: no announcements. How about QE3 announcement + gold prices shot up? That's why all gold stocks went up that day.


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## Joules MM1 (18 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> I have attached a chart but I am not sure if it shows enough information.
> 
> Greatly appreciated.



add to email

storyline



if indicia is an important part of your work, maybe, try looking at the lower time frames within the volume make-up, did most the buying occur at the open or at the close by large hands or inbetween, do you think weak hands were buying and keeping price high hence the following days when price immediately sold after a strong up-bar.....you may want to look into Twiggs money flow to get some idea or the accum/distribution make-ups.....

clear accummulation based on what, maybe part of the rise is on the back of gold a few hands taking advantage of that strength.....the move doesnt look sustainable to me from a trend pov but certainly can get higher in the immediate future......looks like a large tradeable interruption

the major capitulation volume followed by retest volume look classic enough but i think the low, so far, is likely to get retested again......the nature of the construct so far says an interruption to the major trend with strong resistance at 1.05 an impulsive break of that goes to 1.35 level

as the downtrend gets lower, that is the % of the decline widens (from 2.05 to sub .60), so the selling abates and larger pockets soak up the selling without having to chase for supply until they are forced to, still implying to me a short-term counter-trend opportunity......

what may keep the stock bouyed is simply it's analogous to the general market as displayed by the 2007 peak and the 2009 lows.....keep in mind that no one but no one wanted the mar 09 lows as displayed in the volume whereas now the volume suggests differently...

the question now is what is the confirmation signal of trend reversal, if any..... 

the levels i've cited upside are standard ratios as i've found them .......i'm not a technical analyst, per se


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## CanOz (18 September 2012)

Nice bit of VSA there mate

CanOz


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## tech/a (18 September 2012)

Ill answer in detail tonight.
Adding to Joules answer and perhaps 
showing a *little different slant *on conventional
VSA wisdom.
A good question and one which is being seen a great deal
of late.

The question of have to know if a break out of consolidation 
is likely to continue into a trend is a good one. While we wont 
know 100% we will have indicators which allow us to anticipate 
a longer term move and put us in front of the train.

The crux is the *(My)* Premise that price is governed by *SUPPLY
and NOT DEMAND.*

More tonight when I can mark up charts and explain in detail.


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## Steve C (18 September 2012)

Thank you everyone for taking the time to reply. Some very good contribuitions, to make them most useful to myself I really need to do a fair bit more reading on technical analysis, indicators etc etc and come back and re-read these responses to make them of most value to me.

Tech /A - I look forward to your response tonight.

I guess the point of this thread was to see an example of how T/A can be used to pick a price rise the night before, if anyone has any other examples they can show on a chart and point out the indicators that resulted in a price rise the next day please feel free to add.

Thanks again,

Steve


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## CanOz (18 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> I guess the point of this thread was to see an example of how T/A can be used to pick a price rise the night before, if anyone has any other examples they can show on a chart and point out the indicators that resulted in a price rise the next day please feel free to add.




If that was possible to any profitable degree, would there not be a few hedge funds milking it death? 

CanOz


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## Steve C (18 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> If that was possible to any profitable degree, would there not be a few hedge funds milking it death?
> 
> CanOz




I guess so CanOz -  I understand the charts are never 100% and are just showing you trends and probabilities, perhaps I have overestimated the accuracy and ability of T/A.


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## CanOz (18 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> I guess so CanOz -  I understand the charts are never 100% and are just showing you trends and probabilities, perhaps I have overestimated the accuracy and ability of T/A.




I think so, personally. To me, its only ever been a way to size, enter and exit a trade. There is ZERO predictability in TA IMO. A coin toss.

CanOz


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## Steve C (18 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> I think so, personally. To me, its only ever been a way to size, enter and exit a trade. There is ZERO predictability in TA IMO. A coin toss.
> 
> CanOz




So basically the only way to be profitable over time is to have a positive expectancy and using tight risk management to minimise loses and maximise gains. I guess that is why you can lose more than you win and make money over time.


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## tech/a (18 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> I think so, personally. To me, its only ever been a way to size, enter and exit a trade. There is ZERO predictability in TA IMO. A coin toss.
> 
> CanOz




Well if that were the case then

(1) Youd never get a technical system that was profitable.
(2) You wouldnt get discretionary traders making a consistent profit.
(3) Youve wasted a hell of a lot of time Can Oz

Its about anticipation not prediction.
Its about spotting a train,if its docked at a station like this was then you want to know
when its leaving (Most likely and thats the question here).
If its left you want to know if its going to keep going and what its slowing down and speeding up means in context to the overall journey.
You want to know if it starts reversing is it going back to the station and infact through it in the other direction.

If you (anyone not specifically Can Oz) cant tell this with some degree of accuracy and with a very very high degree of risk mitigation for the times you are wrong---then you are not a technical traders boot lace.

More tonight which I will also add to the technical analysis education thread.


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## Steve C (18 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> More tonight which I will also add to the technical analysis education thread.




Tech - I just discovered this thread, it is brilliant, Thank you.

Moving off topic slightly here... does anyone here simply buy and sell off announcements/news alerts? It seems at times this could also be a workable strategy if you are quick enough...

ie:
Doray secures finance for Andy Well start-up (Shares in Doray jumped by 11% to 78c in afternoon trade.)

Pegasus bolts on copper hits (SHARES in Pegasus Metals nearly doubled today after the company announced high-grade copper-silver-zinc sulphides at the Mount Mulcahy project in Western Australia.)

Is this feasible or is it usually all to late by the time us retail investors read these announcements/news alerts?


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## tech/a (18 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> Tech - I just discovered this thread, it is brilliant, Thank you.
> 
> Moving off topic slightly here... does anyone here simply buy and sell off announcements/news alerts? It seems at times this could also be a workable strategy if you are quick enough...
> 
> ...





I wish I'd have thought of that!

-----jumping at shadows.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> If that was possible to any profitable degree, would there not be a few hedge funds milking it death?
> 
> CanOz




I tend to think that's not the case Canoz.  I find patterns and trend lines very useful.  The reason hedge funds don't (necessarily) use them is because they can't easily quantify the process or results, so pitching the idea to the boss is impossible.  The boss wants hard reproducible facts.

If you were to give any chart to 100 chartists, there would be all manner of different lines drawn on it.  This is very much an art.  I bet my bottom dollar my lines are "better" than most chartists out there. Excuse me blowing my horn.

As for indicators, I agree they can't be used successfully.  I've run hundreds of thousands of back/fwd tests on pretty much every single indicator and indicator combo I could find....often leaving my AB running overnight looking for answers that weren't there!  I think you've done the same.  Not that long ago I deleted something like 500,000 test results from AB's report explorer.  And that's been done before on my laptops as well.


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## CanOz (18 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> how T/A can be used to pick a price rise the night before, ...




My comments were directed at this specifically. Sorry for the confusion...I'm aware that patterns can be used to indicate where an issue may break, reverse etc. But how on earth can you tell when an issue will rise or fall "the next day" is beyond me!! Sure there could be a possibility, but i think the OP was looking for something a bit more certain.

CanOz


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## tech/a (18 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I tend to think that's not the case Canoz.  I find patterns and trend lines very useful.  The reason hedge funds don't (necessarily) use them is because they can't easily quantify the process or results, so pitching the idea to the boss is impossible.  The boss wants hard reproducible facts.
> 
> If you were to give any chart to 100 chartists, there would be all manner of different lines drawn on it.  This is very much an art.  I bet my bottom dollar my lines are "better" than most chartists out there. Excuse me blowing my horn.
> 
> As for indicators, I agree they can't be used successfully.  I've run hundreds of thousands of back/fwd tests on pretty much every single indicator and indicator combo I could find....often leaving my AB running overnight looking for answers that weren't there!  I think you've done the same.  Not that long ago I deleted something like 500,000 test results from AB's report explorer.  And that's been done before on my laptops as well.




If this is true you need to understand how to construct a profitable trading method.

You certainly can construct a profitable system using indicators.


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## tech/a (18 September 2012)

Still strapped for time.

I hope these 3 charts are helpful.
Would like to spend more time on commentary but have to fly.
If you read in CONJUNCTION with Joules chart it should be a little clearer


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## CanOz (18 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Well if that were the case then
> 
> (1) Youd never get a technical system that was profitable.
> (2) You wouldnt get discretionary traders making a consistent profit.
> ...




Most systems are 50% correct over the long haul, most good systems...yeah?

Correct, it's the money management that's separates the really profitable ones over time.

I thought that was your mantra tech?

Great charts, solid analysis too. There were several times when it could have broken out though. To answer the OPs original question "can you tell the night before?", not for certain, no. 

But can you profit from this, sure. You can code amibroker to look for these setups, even trade guider may highlight this move in its scans....tech?

Nice train by the way...

CanOz


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## tech/a (18 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> Most systems are 50% correct over the long haul, most good systems...yeah?
> 
> Correct, it's the money management that's separates the really profitable ones over time.
> 
> ...




Mantra no
Management will only help discretionary traders
Systems traders just follow the system.

Can you tell the night before.
In some setups yes you can --- generally  continuation moves

But in THIS case no only anticipate.


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## Steve C (18 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Still strapped for time.
> 
> I hope these 3 charts are helpful.
> Would like to spend more time on commentary but have to fly.
> ...




Thanks Tech /A and everyone else who contributed - greatly appreciated.

Steve


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## CanOz (18 September 2012)

So Steve, what do you think? Can you tell for certain if an issue will move, the night before on an EOD chart?

CanOz


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## barney (18 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> * it's the money management that's separates the really profitable ones over time*.






tech/a said:


> Can you tell the night before.
> In some setups yes you can --- generally  continuation moves
> 
> But *in THIS case no only anticipate*.





Just highlighted a couple of points worth noting, particularly in this stocks case  

NB. The stock is GRY ... not GIR ........ just to save any confusion


Just as an example of the difficulty of getting the above or any trade correct at the right hand edge of the chart, I've added 3 charts .......... and I defy anyone to know where they will head ahead of time ............. The only way to play these situations is to take a position as close to either the bottom or top of the range as you can (depending on your own directional bias) ...... and then do as Canoz says, and manage the risk ......... Taking a trade in the opposite direction of its short term direction is easier said than done of course


I cropped between a couple and a few bars off each chart ........ Two of the charts break out of their range in the days following, and one is still range bound .......... interesting exercise trying to pick which ones did what based on the current charts


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## Steve C (19 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> So Steve, what do you think? Can you tell for certain if an issue will move, the night before on an EOD chart?
> 
> CanOz




To be honest CanOz I don't have an adequete level of knowledge in relation to technical analysis to properly answer your question, as I said I have literally just begun learning T/A but to answer, no IMO you can never tell for "certain." I have to say at times after reading other threads it's easy to point out a breakout after it has happened but I haven't seen to many examples before it does which is what will make Barneys exercise above very interesting.

Cheers

Steve


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## tech/a (19 September 2012)

Barney
From what I see I'd say the last chart remains range bound.


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## tech/a (19 September 2012)

I'm presuming a breakout is above the Bollinger bands not simply a move
Within that containment.


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## CanOz (19 September 2012)

Steve C said:


> To be honest CanOz I don't have an adequete level of knowledge in relation to technical analysis to properly answer your question, as I said I have literally just begun learning T/A but to answer, no IMO you can never tell for "certain." I have to say at times after reading other threads it's easy to point out a breakout after it has happened but I haven't seen to many examples before it does which is what will make Barneys exercise above very interesting.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Steve




Yup, I agree. The analysis  trains your eye and gives you the confidence to trade the setups as they appear at the hard right edge. Well said Barney, by the way!

You don't need to be certain to be profitable though...You will have many losing trades.

CanOz


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## barney (19 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Barney
> From what I see I'd say the last chart remains range bound.




Well picked ........



CanOz said:


> Yup, I agree. The analysis  trains your eye and gives you the confidence to trade the setups as they appear at the hard right edge. Well said Barney, by the way!
> 
> You don't need to be certain to be profitable though...You will have many losing trades.
> 
> CanOz




Cheers M8.


The right hand edges of each chart are currently as follows ........

NB. The middle chart is actually of *GRY* without the "break out bars" included ........ It seemed a good example of how difficult these things can be to see "before" the event.

Results ...... 
Chart one .... initially broke down out of its range
Chart two (GRY) as we now know, broke up out of its range
Chart three, as Tech noted, is still range bound, and to the naked eye looks weak to me, but who knows


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## tech/a (19 September 2012)

GRY going ahead nicely I note


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## Joules MM1 (19 September 2012)

some interesting ideas in here.....the thread has morfed from answering the question explaining  a simple rise in price to how to frame trend and consolidation etc......

live prices, a kinda what-happened is a good idea to continue as i'm sure there are many mouthless eyes viewing

while we keep an eye on the OP GRY price, to the point: *who has the next chart?*


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## barney (19 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> some interesting ideas in here.....the thread has morfed from answering the question explaining  a simple rise in price to how to frame trend and consolidation etc......
> 
> live prices, a kinda what-happened is a good idea to continue as i'm sure there are many mouthless eyes viewing
> 
> while we keep an eye on the OP GRY price, to the point: *who has the next chart?*





Howdy Joules .... I'll go again   There are a couple of these I've been keeping an eye on lately.


This one has a News aspect to it as well, and throws up some more interesting stuff to watch/be careful of

I've again taken the last 5 days of trading off the chart ..............  Who would even consider trading the chart from 5 days ago!!


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## barney (19 September 2012)

Day after on the above chart .............. That was easy to see coming

Some boats are leakier than others


NB Company called a Trading Halt at the end of that spike ............ (Directors getting nervous  ............ part of their announcement states .....

A number of assays have been received from some of the holes drilled, however the complete set and the necessary interpretation is not yet available. The* directors believe that the information to be released has limited share price sensitivity*.

Interesting ......... If they already know the results are not particularly sensitive, why have they not been released?


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## barney (19 September 2012)

So management place a Trading Halt ..... *then* announce to the market *while the Trading Halt is in place*, that the results look pretty average  ....... Oh dear

Chart next day after initial assay results are announced ............... Lots of traders crucified on the open with more Stops being hit than a City train ....

Hang on ...... price starts rising again ............ closes on its high of the day ..... interesting.


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## barney (19 September 2012)

Price continues up ........ starting to get smellier by the minute


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## tech/a (19 September 2012)

barney said:


> Price continues up ........ starting to get smellier by the minute




Lets take out the conspiracy theories and look at price.

For it to rise we need to see an exhaustion of supply.
The very high volume large range day got rid of a lot of supply.
Price gapped down and has continued to rise from the low of the impulse bar.

The question is
Has supply exhausted---as it gets closer to the High we will see whats left.
So its pretty simple to trade.
Buy at the low end of the impulse bar and wait for the train
OR
Buy on a lower than impulse buy bar clearence of the high of that bar
Particularly if it gaps through the high.
Stop at the low of the bar for a wait and see
OR At the bottom of the gap for a break out.

If massive volume then look for retracements as supply will still be dominant.
Have no idea which stock it is keep us up to date.


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## barney (19 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Lets take out the conspiracy theories and look at price.
> 
> For it to rise we need to see an exhaustion of supply.
> The very high volume large range day got rid of a lot of supply.
> ...




Tech ... The stock is a Spec (THR)...... I'm more than happy for you to disect the price action and agree with what you say, but don't discount the possibility of a little conspiracy 

Knowledge is powerful, and when knowledge involves money, it becomes corruptible, on all levels.  If you can explain the spike on my first chart with price action alone, I'll be very surprised (It looked more like a Short than a Long) 

All that aside, my main reason for posting was to give Steve an example of News (or lack of news), giving an alternative outcome to a given scenario. 

Cheers,


Last chart as of todays close ....


More news ...... Assay results now appear quite good

Traders push it higher on open, milk it, and leave the late buyers holding the Baby  ...... closing on the Lows.  (Thats the Conspiracy version ...)

The stock may well continue higher after the dust settles, but my main point is ..... who knew to Pump the stock up 50% two days before a News release ...... and a news release which was apparently "not price sensitive" according to Management?? ...............  Make of it what you will, but it is interesting.


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## tinhat (19 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> some interesting ideas in here..... i'm sure there are many mouthless eyes viewing




Yes, it has been a very educational discussion. Thank you to the contributors. Will read tonight's contributions later on.


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## tech/a (20 September 2012)

barney said:


> Tech ... The stock is a Spec (THR)...... I'm more than happy for you to disect the price action and agree with what you say, but don't discount the possibility of a little conspiracy
> 
> Knowledge is powerful, and when knowledge involves money, it becomes corruptible, on all levels.  If you can explain the spike on my first chart with price action alone, I'll be very surprised (It looked more like a Short than a Long)
> 
> ...





But your missing completely whats going on here.
While Supply is filling any buyers that step up to the plate price is rising and has risen out of immediate consolidation.
This supply will either be defeated as in bought out.
OR it will continue to enter at higher prices
OR it will stop being placed in the market.

It is NOW that the astute trader will be analysing the right side of the chart.
If this supply dries up then there will be another strong move up.


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## CanOz (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> But your missing completely whats going on here.
> While Supply is filling any buyers that step up to the plate price is rising and has risen out of immediate consolidation.
> This supply will either be defeated as in bought out.
> OR it will continue to enter at higher prices
> ...




Yeah, I agree with tech here. Why was there supply? There was a gap, a point to take some profit. The price comes back to fill the gap and if there is demand from those that missed out on the first impulse, can they overcome supply? 

Barney, you may be right about manipulation, but don't let it cloud your judgement on what the price action can tell you.

CanOz


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## barney (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> But your missing completely whats going on here.
> While Supply is filling any buyers that step up to the plate price is rising and has risen out of immediate consolidation.
> This supply will either be defeated as in bought out.
> OR it will continue to enter at higher prices
> ...





No your missing my point Tech.  Steves original question involved "Can we see these Spikes coming and take advantage of them" *before the fact*

I think we all agree that mostly its pretty difficult to see without the use of hindight.

My ramblings on about the "conspiracy" of whether this stock was subject to a little insider knowledge was purely for a bit of poetic licence in making it into a good story.  In this case, I think its pretty obvious "somebody" had early access to information that the general punter didn't.

Now that the price action is "out in the open", of course we can start trading it using "regular" techniques, and happy for you to follow on with that now as it will be a good exercise in how to go about it from here. Hope that clears up any confusion.
Cheers.


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## barney (20 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> Barney, you may be right about manipulation, but don't let it cloud your judgement on what the price action can tell you.
> 
> CanOz





No cloudy judgement Can ... see above post to Tech.  

In these types of cases where we get rogue spikes out of the blue, I think its prudent to take a skeptical view of the price action and do a bit of follow up research on the Company's fundamentals to see how much substance there might be ..... if the results look a little over-hyped, I won't touch them with a barge pole, regardless of whether they make new highs or not ....... but thats just my choice.
Cheers


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## CanOz (20 September 2012)

barney said:


> No cloudy judgement Can ... see above post to Tech.
> 
> In these types of cases where we get rogue spikes out of the blue, I think its prudent to take a skeptical view of the price action and do a bit of follow up research on the Company's fundamentals to see how much substance there might be ..... if the results look a little over-hyped, I won't touch them with a barge pole, regardless of whether they make new highs or not ....... but thats just my choice.
> Cheers




Fair comment, you have the experience with this not me...

It would be interesting to watch this intra-day to see what happens with supply vs demand.

CanOz


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## Gringotts Bank (20 September 2012)

barney said:


> I think we all agree that mostly its pretty difficult to see without the use of hindight.




Yeh, impossible.  There was an opportunity for a buy at 81.5, which was the breakout price.  Now you'd be sitting on a gain of 10.5% with more to come.


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## barney (20 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yeh, impossible.  There was an opportunity for a buy at 81.5, which was the breakout price.  Now you'd be sitting on a gain of 10.5% with more to come.




It was a good breakout trade for sure.  GRY is of course a lot more "solid" Company than the Spec examples I have been throwing up, and maybe thats more the important distinction ......  whether the price Spikes are genuine or flash in the pan



CanOz said:


> Fair comment, you have the experience with this not me...
> 
> It would be interesting to watch this intra-day to see what happens with supply vs demand.
> 
> CanOz




If by experience you mean I know how to lose a lot of cash on hyped up Specs ...... you are correct  Fortunately it doesn't happen quite as often now days


Here is an example of one I was watching yesterday .............. Huge spike on News ............. I did my due diligence last night and concluded the price rise was way over done compared to the results in the announcement .... *no trade under any circumstances*.

This morning it gapped open about another 16%  ....... It may keep rising, but my Barge pole just got longer!!

Anyway, I've taken up too much room on this thread ...... back to shadowsutthedoor:


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## tech/a (20 September 2012)

barney said:


> It was a good breakout trade for sure.  GRY is of course a lot more "solid" Company than the Spec examples I have been throwing up, and maybe thats more the important distinction ......  whether the price Spikes are genuine or flash in the pan
> 
> 
> 
> ...





So far an inside day on average volume.
Not a bad sign.
Supply still enough to depress price.


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## barney (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> So far an inside day on average volume.
> Not a bad sign.
> Supply still enough to depress price.





I assume you are referring to *THR* Tech ........ 

Just so there is no confusion, the last chart I posted up today was of *MEU*,  and its the one I would not trade.


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## tech/a (20 September 2012)

Yes I was 
But I dont know about your barge pole on MEU.
It seems to be lapping up supply


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## barney (20 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Yes I was
> But I dont know about your barge pole on MEU.
> It seems to be lapping up supply




Lol ..... My Barge pole is my main indicator:nunchux:   yeah its going ok, but those that bought the Spike open at 5.7 and up to 5.8 might not see it that way.

I'm not saying it won't go up ... just that I wouldn't trade it.     A "nothing of real substance" announcement which spiked the price about 90% rings "risk bells" in my head ..........  Happy to let it slide ....... 

Either way, it fits the News/Price action concept of the thread, so maybe something of value over the next few days from it.


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## barney (21 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Yes I was
> But I dont know about your barge pole on MEU.
> It seems to be lapping up supply





Did you get on Tech?  Up another lazy 130% ....... Speeding Ticket?


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## barney (21 September 2012)

Make that 340% .....

Management of MEU take a bow ...... Marketing genius ...... 

Here is a snippet of the two announcements on the 19th and 20th  ........ 

Note the reference to SIR ................ 


Punters should take note however ................. *NO* holes have even been drilled yet ........ My barge pole is white hot ..... well done if you were on it though ....... but watch out for the cliff edge:1zhelp:


Announcement 19th September

5 km long coincident copper/nickel-in-calcrete anomaly and magnetic target identified on
Pundinya in the Gawler Craton.
• Anomalous copper and nickel-in-calcrete with grades of up to 175 ppm Cu and 330 ppm Ni,
*similar to the initial results reported from the recent Nova discovery* in WA.

The anomaly is *very similar to the geochemical in soils results from the recently announced Sirius Resources Nova nickel discovery* in Western Australia. The copper in soils at Nova reaches a maximum of 175 ppm Cu and the maximum nickel in soils reaches 373 ppm Ni as shown in the diagram below.

Announcement 20th September

The infill surface sampling currently in progress at the Durkin copper-nickel prospect has confirmed large scale
outcrop (Figure 2) with a number of sites containing good quality visible copper and nickel mineralisation. NITON
XRF spot readings have also been undertaken of key sample sites with readings returning results far exceeding
previously reported maximum copper results from sampling. *NITON spot readings include copper grades of up to
654.32 ppm Cu** (Table 1) significantly higher than the previously reported maximum of 175 ppm Cu.


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## barney (21 September 2012)

Surprised MEU hasn't raised a few comments today.

From a technical view, probably a great lesson in VSA (herd mentality) trading today ... (any thoughts Tech?)


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## tech/a (21 September 2012)

barney said:


> Surprised MEU hasn't raised a few comments today.
> 
> From a technical view, probably a great lesson in VSA (herd mentality) trading today ... (any thoughts Tech?)




Well we both talked about it.
But there was certainly a very good day trade in there.
Supply hit hard late in the day as those who rode the
Volatility all day closed out.
Likely to jump first thing on Monday and come off again.

These are rare but very tradable.
I didn't see the first post on 130% rise until after lunch

Got any more Barney?


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## Country Lad (23 September 2012)

MEU was an interesting one in that it came up on a scan on 19 Sep. 





I don't normally get interested in penny dreadfuls but the chart was a bit interesting, particularly when it gapped up on open on the 21st. 





Tech stuff does work.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## tech/a (23 September 2012)

Hi CL
How's the tropics!

I notice the scan picks up many prospects.
And of those on screen only MEU continued 
On. While I agree tech analysis " works "
It isn't as simple as scan/buy/profit.

Infact sorting the scans particularly with any
Prospects---which is necessary with a good scan
Is terribly difficult.

Finding outlier prospects in hind site
Is far easier than on the day they are found.


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## CanOz (23 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Hi CL
> How's the tropics!
> 
> I notice the scan picks up many prospects.
> ...




Tech, curious as to whether or not TG picked up anything on its scanner?

CanOz


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## tech/a (23 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> Tech, curious as to whether or not TG picked up anything on its scanner?
> 
> CanOz




I'll have a look tomorrow when I crank it up.

I'm sure it will but it's no better than any other scan
100s of alerts are triggered everyday.
And about 50 % in a market like this will go
On with it for up to 3 bars.


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## Country Lad (23 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Hi CL
> How's the tropics!.




G'day tech, haven't been in the tropics for years - still full time travelling around the country with a few overseas trips thrown in.  Been in remote parts during last winter doing volunteering which we really enjoyed.



tech/a said:


> I notice the scan picks up many prospects.
> And of those on screen only MEU continued
> On. While I agree tech analysis " works "
> It isn't as simple as scan/buy/profit.




If only it was that easy.  That particular scan has some odd criteria looking for outliers. 



tech/a said:


> Infact sorting the scans particularly with any
> Prospects---which is necessary with a good scan
> Is terribly difficult.
> 
> ...




Never look for them in hindsight, that's a waste of time. I still have a preference for looking at P&F patterns - they have been the most successful and far more simple.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## barney (24 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Got any more Barney?




This one should be on the watch list .....  Third test at these levels on heavy volume. Most of that volume was on the Open at 2.2-2.3 cents, and the Gap open was very aggressive. 

The Project update had some "interesting" mineral grades as well, so looks like some fundamental substance to the rise as well which is good.

Supply or Demand yet to be proven, but has potential for sure.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2012)

barney said:


> This one should be on the watch list .....  Third test at these levels on heavy volume. Most of that volume was on the Open at 2.2-2.3 cents, and the Gap open was very aggressive.
> 
> The Project update had some "interesting" mineral grades as well, so looks like some fundamental substance to the rise as well which is good.
> 
> Supply or Demand yet to be proven, but has potential for sure.




Nice pattern.  I would have a conditional buy at .028, with a limit .029 on this.


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## tech/a (24 September 2012)

Its definately Supply
Price keeps resisting.

Whats not known is
if/when Supply is exhausted.

What we do know is that its
being pushed to test 3 times
this time more supply as in volume.

Watch for *VERY *low volume bars and
support.


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## Country Lad (24 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Its definately Supply
> Price keeps resisting.
> 
> Whats not known is
> ...




Finished strongly Fri, started weak this morning with no sign of it firming. Right  now my buy/sell algorithm is saying -14.59 where above zero is buying strength and below zero selling strength.  Pity, it gapped up OK Fri but ran out of puff by 11 o'clock.  Still, with 1.3 Billion shares on issue it will need some real good news to move it much.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## barney (28 September 2012)

barney said:


> Punters should take note however ................. *NO* holes have even been drilled yet ........ My barge pole is white hot ..... well done if you were on it though ....... but* watch out for the cliff edge*:1zhelp:





Quick recap on a couple of these ............ *MEU*  ............... The cliff edge was steep as expected.  A lot of hype and not much substance to this point.  To top it all off, management have now distributed the 69 million share shortfall from the recent failed Cap raise, at 4 cents to their "buddies" ........ no wonder there is Supply in the market    Poor form on many fronts from the Management in my view. 






tech/a said:


> Its definately Supply
> Price keeps resisting.
> 
> Whats not known is
> ...




*VOR*   ...........  Lower volume bars now evident ...... Looks like accumulation. Any drop with higher volume under the old lows would be a concern.


One I mentioned on its own thread, and a good example of positive news getting a negative reaction.

*VRX*  ........ excellent drilling result ...... SP down 13% ...... Recent SP rise may have had the results already factored in so maybe a little tree shaking to come before further rises .....


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## Joules MM1 (5 October 2012)

Steve C said:


> I noticed GRY on 14/9/12 went up 18% in one day.




Steve, anymore thoughts on this stock ?

here's another quick view  tour guide


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## Steve C (5 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> Steve, anymore thoughts on this stock ?
> 
> here's another quick view  tour guide
> View attachment 49204




Sorry Joules - don't really know enough about T/A to comment without making a fool of myself... have enjoyed reading through these posts though, defentely one to come back and read again once I have a better understanding.


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## burglar (5 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> Steve, anymore thoughts on this stock ?
> 
> here's another quick view ...




I'll make a fool of myself!
I'd be guessing it is an ascending triangle!

I googled this to confirm:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp#axzz28QKERrPK


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## Joules MM1 (5 October 2012)

burglar said:


> I'll make a fool of myself!
> I'd be guessing it is an ascending triangle!
> 
> I googled this to confirm:
> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp#axzz28QKERrPK




certainly seems a valid if broad idea...where would you consider entering a long or exiting an existing long, burglar?


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## burglar (5 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> certainly seems a valid if broad idea...where would you consider entering a long or exiting an existing long, burglar?




Several little thoughts come to mind

1. I have been in and out of this one (GRY) six years ago.
They are perennial drillers. 
If it was me, I would have a D8 caterpillar digging it out, if needs be!

2. I am awaiting the full brunt of the next bull run. 
Sadly, it's the only time I make money!

3. My financial circumstances will not allow me to consider this trade at the moment.
My history tells me that I usually sell a good position and buy a bad one.

Doesn't really answer your question?


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