# Luck



## Garpal Gumnut (28 September 2007)

Seneca the great Roman philosopher said "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

I am a great believer in luck, good and bad fortune and the spoiling of one's chances in trading/investing.

That is why I rarely tell people in what I intend investing or trading.

I believe it to be bad luck, I don't have a rational reason for this. Its a belief.

garpal


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## moneymajix (28 September 2007)

Hi Garpal

That is interesting.

I will reveal after purchasing (as opposed to before) for obvious reasons.

I wish you lucky and prosperity.


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 September 2007)

Thanks moneymajix for the comments and visiting my blog.  

I am a long term trader I have paused in my trading at present waiting for some further direction from the market. Unfortunately I did not buy anything on the days of the recent very lows, but added to ANZ , BHP and CBA on the way down. I am exposed to major banks in stock and warrants, so will continue to hold those.

Also the major resource stocks again in stock and warrants BHP, Rio and also steel OST. I hold about 30 stocks and warrants between SMSF and margin loan.

This is an exciting time for the market. China is on the up, but may strike problems in the future politically with such a young large population. Now they are going gangbusters though. The USA I tend to view as the new head of BHP does, it is not as big an effect on our market as China at present. If there are October reactions I may be in again if XAO approaches 5800. 

The only speccies I've got are MOS and CVN.

It can be exciting being a long term trader, just excitement  of a different kind. I don't have the time or the skill for short term trading.


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## theasxgorilla (1 October 2007)

I like to refer to keeping my trades to my self as attempting to preserve that integrity of the decision making...throughout the life of the trade...but if I'm honest I'm sure there is an element of superstition in there as well 

Blog on!


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## chops_a_must (1 October 2007)

Yep. To all that is provable, markets are essentially random. All you can alter are your reactions and decisions. But likewise, I've found the best trades are those in which I've waited for/ seen set up. I actually think it good Karma to sometimes let people know which ones are setting up well.


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## moneymajix (1 October 2007)

If people did not share about their shares, might be much content for stock forums!

:walker:


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## Garpal Gumnut (1 October 2007)

I talk about my shares but only after they have taken off. I admire threads like "The dogs, barking" that drmb started but am not ready to post on that, too much shame with silly positions I had. My first defensive "investment" was in Estate Mortgage in the 1980's, it was the Fincorp of the time, and I lost heaps. It taught me a lesson though. The US and UK are so jittery I'm waiting for a pullback in the DJI and FTSE to buy some more ASX stocks. Thanks for the replies gorilla, chops and majix.


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## moneymajix (2 October 2007)

Might not be a pullback this month.

I have been reading Trader Paul's blog and his astro stuff re October.


_Hi folks,

XJO ... just a reminder,that our market should
be BOOMING in October 2007, particularly from
10-19102007 ... !~!

happy days 

paul_






Let's see.


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 December 2007)

I'll be looking at the following in 2008, and buy some when xao comes down a wee bit more

all the oils
bhp, rio
all the aussie banks , big and small
wes and wow
toll and asciano.

I've read and understood most of Natenbergs book on options and may short through option spreads stocks which are parlous Macquarie, and others with potential debt problems.

i don't think xao will keep on going up as it has.

will either go sideways or fall

enough self revelation from me.

Luck is the most important element in trading/investment

Above are just some thoughts.

Merry xmas and prosperous ny to all bloggers and thank you all for your informative posts

gg


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## moneymajix (23 December 2007)

2008 could be a nice year.

What about green stocks?


Good luck and Merry Christmas


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 December 2007)

re green stocks

As Pauline would say 

Please explain 

Which ones were you looking at 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 December 2007)

Luck   alert   as Paul would say.

I predict luck will continue to be a major factor in our prosperity and the performance of our shares in 2008.

I would in 2008 particularly be looking between the dates 01012008 and 31122008. 

This is general advice etc.etc.etc. 

Happy New Year All

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 February 2008)

I must look at buying again soon, everything is getting so cheap now, CBA, other banks , WOW, but who knows what next week will bring. Oilers will go up, unsure if BNB or MQG have hit bottom. I dislike their model of business but greed is greed. It would be good if stocks traded sideways for a while, all this up and down has me dizzy.

gg


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