# Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?



## Pythagerous (13 March 2009)

Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.

Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?

Part of me thinks that this could be signs of recovery, for a couple of reasons.

A) The majority are expecting it to just be a rally, so most investors are treating it with caution.

B) No one expects a recovery to come this early, yet recoveries always come earlier then expected. If they didnt, then everyone would get in at the bottom of the market.

C) Yes unemployment is rising, however the market generally starts to recover before unemployment hits its peak.

D) Australian Business have started to streamline their businesses, much before they came desperate like in the U.S. So by taking cautionary measures, they are going to be in a better position.

E) Interest rates are likely to fall. Combine this with the fact that businesses are becoming more streamlined, there will become a point where companies appear more profitable then low bank interest.

G) Consumers have really tightened their belt in the last 12 months and with lower interest rates, they surely have to becoming more comfortable and confident in their own financial situations.

H) The outlook for the market is bleak, but this has been factored in already.

I) The chances are, that the majority of the investors who sell on a panic, have already fled the market. Any investors that have remained in the market for the past 12 months, have probably come too far to turn back, and are prepared to stick it out, so we are unlikely to see another level of high volume panic selling.

These are just my personal views, and I must admit I am not a financial adviser or scientist for that matter. I do not know the score of pie, and all I am running on is a Tafe Certificate IV in team leadership.

In saying that, I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on my views.


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## Trevor_S (13 March 2009)

*Re: Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce*



Pythagerous said:


> In saying that, I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on my views.




Dead Cat Bounce.  Bad news has barely started rolling in, in my opinion. 

That being said, I have been buying Dec 08, Feb 09 and Mar 09 but still have most of my assets in cash, as when I try and bottom pick I only ever end up with a smelly finger and nothing else to show for it.

Hell my recent GPT purchase is showing a >100,000% annualised gain, so I must know what I am doing ? .... riiiight... (joke, joyce)

I thought this article quite interesting (WB and USA banking insights)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672700679188601.html


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## MS+Tradesim (13 March 2009)

*Re: Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce*



Pythagerous said:


> C) Yes unemployment is rising, however the market generally starts to recover before unemployment hits its peak.




I saw a chart recently that showed historically the S&P500 bottoms around the peak of US unemployment. I will see if I can find it again.


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## Junior (13 March 2009)

*Re: Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce*

I'm concerned that we are still in a massively over-leveraged environment.  Household debt is still near record highs, business debt is high and Government debt is rapidly rising to create 'stimulus'.  The only way a recovery can occur now is if we decide to inflate the credit bubble further.....real recovery could still be a few years away IMO.

However there might be a handful of stocks that perform OK during these times.


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## Stormin_Norman (13 March 2009)

dead cat bounce.


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## Temjin (13 March 2009)

I hope you don't mind I use this format of replying, so no hard feelings.  



Pythagerous said:


> Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.
> 
> Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?




No one can explained the rally. It is only based on the collection of sentiment of all investors' logical and emotional reasons. 



> A) The majority are expecting it to just be a rally, so most investors are treating it with caution.




This is a given seeing how ridiciously OVERSOLD the global markets are in. (check technical charts) A rally is almost a guarantee because nothing ever goes straight down in straight line (as well as up)



> B) No one expects a recovery to come this early, yet recoveries always come earlier then expected. If they didnt, then everyone would get in at the bottom of the market.




No, recoveries always come MUCH LATER than expected. The mass will always get it wrong, that's a guarantee. No one can ever predict the bottom with 100% accuracy. 



> C) Yes unemployment is rising, however the market generally starts to recover before unemployment hits its peak.




Note recency bias effect. Your statement was a generalisation and may not necessary applies to current environment. Unemployment has only just started rising anyway. And the market can become more "irrational" longer than you can remain solvent. 



> D) Australian Business have started to streamline their businesses, much before they came desperate like in the U.S. So by taking cautionary measures, they are going to be in a better position.




I actually don't quite understand this statement. What do you mean by "streamline"? How is it going to make them in a better position?



> E) Interest rates are likely to fall. Combine this with the fact that businesses are becoming more streamlined, there will become a point where companies appear more profitable then low bank interest.




Lower bank interest does not necessary mean greater profits. Companies who are on pure cash with little debt, therefore not as affected by short term interest rates movement, would still suffer because of a collapse in demand. 



> G) Consumers have really tightened their belt in the last 12 months and with lower interest rates, they surely have to becoming more comfortable and confident in their own financial situations.




Ehhhh....consumers are tightening their belt because they ARE NOT comfortable and confident in their CURRENT AND FUTURE financial situations. 

We are now facing a worldwide consumer sentiment change in which leveraging and overspending will be replaced by conservative investing and increased savings. 



> H) The outlook for the market is bleak, but this has been factored in already.




The future is always uncertain. So the common phrase "already factored in" is a myth because no one can predict to a certain degree what is the future outlook for the market. 



> I) The chances are, that the majority of the investors who sell on a panic, have already fled the market. Any investors that have remained in the market for the past 12 months, have probably come too far to turn back, and are prepared to stick it out, so we are unlikely to see another level of high volume panic selling.




This is not certain again. While I agree the first wave of panic selling has increased the cash position of the investors' investment portfolio, I cannot rule out the possibility of another high level volumn panic selling. As in H), the future is uncertain and any more bad news or major bankrupcies like Citigroup MAY create another wave. 

(P.S: Citigroup is dead man walking. They are already insolvent and will either end up in full nationalisation or go bankrupt.) 

Conclusion:

The amount of acceptance in gloom and doom predictions have certainly caught up over the last 12 months. This made us contrarians who had similar D&G views less of a "contrarian" because the mainstream people are slowly accepting the view. 

Regardless, a share market bottom is different to an economic bottom. There is certainly no economic bottom in sight given the massive amount of deleveraging that still needs to occur. The share market MAY bottom but that does not mean it is a good buy if the share prices remain stagnate and with low dividends over the last decade or two. (check 1920s and Japan history) 

I believe that this is a dead cat bounce (for the share market anyway), but given the amount of gloom and doom, it may rally for longer than most people would expect. That would probably cause more people to believe the GFC is finally over and the "Mr Market Bear" will lure alot of people back in before smacking their head down all over again. 

However, I am not putting money in my mouth because I don't think this is a tradeable rally, at least for me anyway. I do not have the plan for this rally and my capital is committed elsewhere. 

These are my personal opinions as well. 

P.S: And yes, I agree with Junior there are individual stocks that are certainly worth investing. Remember in a bear market, all good and bad shares would be taken down indiscriminately.


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## drsmith (13 March 2009)

Ben Bernanke's big if



> “US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that *if* the US banking system stabilises, the recession should end later this year, with fairly strong growth returning in 2010.”




http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25175116-5013868,00.html

That does not inspire confidence. A when would have been better.

Also, to what extent is this rally based on historical data (a 2 month profit statement from one of the US banks and FEB US retail sales ?)


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## nunthewiser (13 March 2009)

MY own PERSONAL opinion

OK after great deliberation and chatting to my dog ....... we have come to the 
conclusion that we have NOT hit OVERALL market bottom as yet ........ NO idea on how current rallys 
will pan out and for how long ........ trade it regardless ......... but we think we have not hit base as yet 
........ prolly wrong , often am ........

one rally dont make a market


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## TheAbyss (13 March 2009)

Received an email from Ords this morning which provides their perspective on it. Not sure if i am allowed to post an email copy howveer it is interesting and if it is emailed without a confidentiality clause than i am presuming open slather.

My view on the below is it is a typical analysts each way bet and points at some facts opens your eyes to a few possible scenarios and lets you make up your own mind which is fair enough but i wouldnt want to be paying for ambiguous advice.

*Email*

If a sudden sharp rally is Day One, then Day Two usually brings a bit of selling. But if Day Three can produce another rally, history shows that the market has formed the base of an ongoing rally. There are, of course, no guarantees.

Since the bear market began, Wall Street has struggled to put together more than two days of significant rally before the next bad news shock has scuppered enthusiasm once more. The most notable exception was March to May last year. The 50% retracement experienced over that period was fuelled by a majority belief that the credit crisis had ended with the "rescue" of Bear Stearns. The minority, including FNArena, warned that Bear Stearns was more likely to be only the tip of the iceberg rather than the base.

It may be premature to talk about another significant rally, after only three days, but the fact is the majority on Wall Street is expecting one. This time, however, the majority is expecting only a bear market rally whereas last time the majority saw a return to the bull market. What this means is that shorts are likely to be quickly covered if the rally appears sustainable. Sellers are likely to step aside and buyers are likely to re-emerge. In other words, a rally (unimpeded by some new bombshell) would have its own internal combustion engine. But at some point the sellers will return.

On the other hand, if everybody believes something will happen, then the chances are greatly amplified that the opposite will happen. In this case, the opposite would be that a rally from here is not just a bear market rally - a bottom has thus indeed been found.

Your average bear market rally runs 20% (meausured as bottom-up) but can run as far as a 50% retracement from the previous peak (measured as top-down). Since the S&P 500 hit its intraday low last week, the index has rallied 12% already.

The intraday low, incidentally, was 666.


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## Pythagerous (13 March 2009)

Great post Temjin. Always good to hear counter arguments against my thoughts, to bring me back to reality.

By streamlining, I am referring to the fact, that Australian companies have strated to tighten their belt. They are laying off staff in order to save costs, they are cutting down expenses. Once they trimm all the excess fat off, they are leaving themself open to improvement. Unlike the US, Australian business have gotten in a bit earlier, so Australian cost cutting is somewhat more of a preventative cautionary measure, as opposed to the U.S where their cost cutting appears to be more of cure.

Overall, yes, economic recoveries come later then expected, however if terms of the market, it generally covers before expected, as it is looking forward into the future.

Consumers are tightening their belts. I am not saying that they have tightened them enough just yet, however there will be a point in time, where consumers feel that they have tightened there belts enough and they are confident with their on personal financial situation. Once they are comfortable, this is when they will start to spend and invest. At the moment, fear of job less, fear of the economic state and lower interest rates are assisting consumers with their ability to save.

Thanks to all those that have participated in this thread, it is extremely insightful.


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## M34N (13 March 2009)

Personally agree with most, this rally already seems overdone IMO, what exactly has changed in this last 2-3 days to cause this rally? Retail sales is the latest positive because they only fell 0.1%, but it was interesting to note that the unemployment figures that were released with it actually were revised up another 9,000, which is another new record. But that figure was conveniently buried behind the 'surprise lift' in non-auto sales; that makes me laugh. Also the mention of AT&T hiring 3,000 more staff made big headlines, which is funny because the number of staff they are looking at hiring is 1/3 of what were just sacked in the latest figures!

How can the market be 'bottoming' when sales are still decreasing and unemployment still rising? Citi's memo about being profitable for the last few months are laughable as AIG is still screaming for money. I wonder how long before the next company announces they need another $30b to operate or the whole financial system collapses


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## CAB SAV (13 March 2009)

Meoww. Markets oversold? They were never worth what their inflated prices showed.


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## roland (13 March 2009)

Comments from Comsec's Insight today:

It may seem an odd thing to do, but we need to repeat over and over ―this is Australia‖. 

It’s so easy to assume that the problems in the US are our problems, in turn affecting our decisions and confidence levels.

The US has major problems in its banking sector. Australia doesn’t. The US has an over-supply of homes. Australia has an under-supply. And it doesn’t stop there with major differences on interest rates, new lending, fiscal policy and population growth.

Certainly the effect isn’t confined to Australia with caution by businesses and consumers stretching across the globe.

One way of describing it is the ―butterfly effect‖ – the butterfly of the US sub-prime mortgage mess has been flapping its wings, causing ripple effects across the globe. Consumers and businesses have become less confident, cutting back spending, investment and employment, with the negative consequences multiplying across regions.

It will only be when the US economy starts to stabilise, that investors in many countries will realise the extent of their tunnel-vision.

Matt Comyn General Manage


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## Pairs Trader (13 March 2009)

Its hard to imagine a bull market is just around the corner, although we could easily see a 20% bear market rally, I think in the medium term we are range bound at best.


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## Glen48 (13 March 2009)

I read were we can expect a Bear rally and the Dow went a little higher last night... gold moved up a bit then stopped maybe the Market is deciding which way next ..IMO RI P  Cat.


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## MS+Tradesim (13 March 2009)

I was remembering wrong. The S&P500 tends to bottom some time before US unemployment peaks. These charts are well worth a close look.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=117070&t=01004553487438585767


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## nomore4s (13 March 2009)

My opinion is that this is just a rally but I think it will be quite a good rally maybe back to about 3700 or so, maybe even higher if it gains some real legs. If this rally does truly get going alot of people will jump in not wanting to miss out thinking it is the bottom and it will be these same people who become panic sellers in the next leg down.

Most of the people who wanted out are now out - shown by how the bad news in the last few weeks has failed to drive the markets down with any conviction.

I actually think we are getting close to a significant bottom, we could see 1 more major leg down and then sideways action above the lows for a number of years. The stock markets tend to be the first thing to bottom and we have already fallen a long way - imo we now actually need to see the economy catch up to the doom & gloom of the stock market as the market already has alot of worst case scenarios priced into share prices.


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## Pythagerous (13 March 2009)

Exactly MS Tradesman. Unemployment is generally an after affect. Comapnies don't slash jobs, until it is confirmed that they are heading for trouble. Same goes with unemployment decreasing. Businesses are not going to start employing more people, until they have confirmation that things are getting better.

This explains why unemployment will peak after the market has started on its road to recovery.


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## alphaman (13 March 2009)

Pythagerous, can you tell me how high unemployment will peak, and when?


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## Pythagerous (13 March 2009)

Alphaman, predicting the peak of unemployment is like predicting the bottom of the market.

I don't know how high unemployment will get, or when the peak will take place, however I do know that the peak of unemployment will come after the market bottoms out.


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## enigmatic (13 March 2009)

alphaman i dont think Pythagerous was stating he knew when unemployement would peak, how is an obvious question when the demand for jobs starts increasing.

I think the point he Pythagerous was making is that typically as an employer you will not start taking on new people until the market you are in is showing improvements. Your not going to employ someone new if you think there could be a worse yet to come, thus you wait see the economy is recovering then you see your business improving and you employ more. Unemployement goes down..

But this however is not helping me in picking the bottom, we dont know unemployement is at its bottom until well after the fact that the market has started to recover.


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## alphaman (13 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> I don't know how high unemployment will get, or when the peak will take place, however I do know that the peak of unemployment will come after the market bottoms out.



I don't know when unemployment will peak either. All I know is it could have already peaked (for the optimistic and can't wait to pick bottoms), or it will peak sometime in the future.

Now armed with the knowledge that market bottom precedes unemployment peak by a certain amount of time, I've come to the shocking and powerful conclusion that *market has either already bottomed, or will bottom sometime in the future!!*


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## wonderrman (13 March 2009)

I dont see how we can have a sustainable 'recovery' when we are still just at the beginning of an econonic down turn. The 'bear market rally' could last for a week a month, then all we need is some more bad news to send us back to reality. 

No one can read the future but everyone was leveraged to the hill before everything turned to ****. 20 years of over borrowing and debt build up cannot be undone in 18 months.

I don't think the next bull market will be as fearse as the previous 04 - 07. Many people have lost faith in Wall Street and the products they produce. They're not going to be as profitable and people will not be in love with credit/debt/fake money as they are now. Bank managers are going to be tight with lending for a while so I don't think there will be as much consumption in our communities, profits will not be as great so share prices won't be. 

Chuck long-term investing out the window unless your investment timeframe is 10 yr +, fundamentals are based on the past. The future could be very different. Short term, event-driven trading will win for the next few years one would think.


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## sammy84 (13 March 2009)

I look at this more like a pre-rally with the true rally is around the corner now. History suggests that once last rally is necessary before the bottom can be put in place. Elliot wave theory also confirms one last push higher before the final bottom is in place. My bear shooting gun is in position and ready to fire :bigun2:


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## Pythagerous (13 March 2009)

It is easy to say that people will be burnt out from the sharemarket forever, but when the big companies start making a profit, and these are returned to shareholders in large dividends, people will start leaning towards them again.


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## dhukka (13 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.
> 
> Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?




Putting aside the facile ritual of the media trying to explain every tick of the tape with an event, I wanna address the ridiculous smoke and mirrors shell game that Citi is playing. The idea that Citigroup was profitable for the first two months of the year is absolutely and utterly ludicrous.

The leaked internal memo that claimed Citi was profitable was before any write-downs or provisions for credit losses. That's like saying there were 12 hours of sunlight yesterday, it was cloudy for 10 of them and sunny for 2. Thus yesterday was a sunny day excluding the cloudy times. 

If Citigroup is such a profitable machine, why has the US government injected $45 billion of capital into the firm and guaranteed another $300 billion of their assets? 

Citigroup is insolvent, plain and simple and it is only out of bankruptcy because of the intervention by the US government. Credit losses on commercial real estate credit cards and other consumer loans are only just getting started.

rant over.


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## Aussiejeff (13 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> I look at this more like a pre-rally with the true rally is around the corner now. History suggests that once last rally is necessary before the bottom can be put in place. Elliot wave theory also confirms one last push higher before the final bottom is in place. My bear shooting gun is in position and ready to fire :bigun2:




I look at this more like a pre-CRASH sucker rally. History can suggest nothing at this point in time. Nor can Elliot.

My bull shooting gun is in position and ready to fire.


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## Temjin (13 March 2009)

Is it just me or do I still see a lot of "old" bullish sentiment lurking around here? 

Ok, let say we will see a bottom sooner or later, but does that necessary mean it would the greatest investment opportunity in your life time? What would you do? Would you put everything back in and expect the original bull will roar back into the market? Or that the "previous peak" of the market will eventually be reached over the next 2-3 years? 

*What is your "future" expectation of the stock market after the bottom has been reached? What will be your actions? That's the sort of answers I would like to know.  *

Let's discuss...


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## MS+Tradesim (13 March 2009)

Temjin said:


> What is your "future" expectation of the stock market after the bottom has been reached? What will be your actions? That's the sort of answers I would like to know.
> 
> Let's discuss...




Lots of up and down swings allowing for short-term longs or shorts. No bull for some years to come. Too much crap in the pond.

I have two systems currently running on shares and CFDs - both have hold times of not more than 2 days. Will reassess if/when a sustained rally eventuates.


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## enigmatic (13 March 2009)

I think the main thing is not to pick the bottom but to pick as close to the bottom as you can justify based on your personal risk rating.

Not to sure how others will judge the market as a return to the "good old days", But I myself will be watching the XAO and DJI 150MVA for my first indication to start entering the market, and once the 250MVA is breached i will consider entering roughly 75-90% of my share portfolio back into the market. selling and buying back if a cross of the 250MVA is made.

I think the important thing is not to try and pick it to close and if you are not with all your capital, generally you are going to be left feeling disappointed as the market moved furth down from your position.


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## sammy84 (13 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> My bull shooting gun is in position and ready to fire.




Well our guns are aligned then. May the bigger gun win. :shoot:


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## M34N (13 March 2009)

dhukka said:


> Putting aside the facile ritual of the media trying to explain every tick of the tape with an event, I wanna address the ridiculous smoke and mirrors shell game that Citi is playing. The idea that Citigroup was profitable for the first two months of the year is absolutely and utterly ludicrous.
> 
> The leaked internal memo that claimed Citi was profitable was before any write-downs or provisions for credit losses. That's like saying there were 12 hours of sunlight yesterday, it was cloudy for 10 of them and sunny for 2. Thus yesterday was a sunny day excluding the cloudy times.
> 
> ...




dkukka; you took the words right out of my mouth! A company that (supposedly) creates a profit after having $45b injected into it is not something I consider positive. I will cheer and celebrate when these companies turn a profit without the taxpayer bailing them out every few months with another lousy 20b here, 40b there...

I also find it funny that people can conclude a bottom in this bear market based solely on 3 trading days. It's more logical to consider this a simple rebound after a series of sharp sell-offs. It's also a sigh of relief as the fact that nothing worse had come out of the market in the past few days and all the bad news has been factored in - for now. The better question is how many consider this another bull trap similar to the rebound after the sell-off in November?


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## Logique (14 March 2009)

alphaman said:


> I don't know when unemployment will peak either. All I know is it could have already peaked (for the optimistic and can't wait to pick bottoms), or it will peak sometime in the future.
> 
> Now armed with the knowledge that market bottom precedes unemployment peak by a certain amount of time, I've come to the shocking and powerful conclusion that *market has either already bottomed, or will bottom sometime in the future!!*



The share price of Seek Ltd (SEK) might be considered a proxy for employment trends, via it's web vacancy advertising business, so if we begin to see some life it might signal some stabilization of the employment numbers. It's been hammered like everything else, but has been bouncing between 2.10 and 2.60 during the last month. Some brave traders working the indicators and doing well for themselves on big % swings.


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## sinner (14 March 2009)

M34N said:


> The better question is how many consider this another bull trap similar to the rebound after the sell-off in November?




We can consider Ashraf Laidi's work here

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/fx-implications-of-supply-driven-rally-in-yields.asp

and newer here

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12817.htm

Calling for 850.

Pretty detailed analysis.


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## prana (14 March 2009)

DCB


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## alphaman (14 March 2009)

Logique said:


> The share price of Seek Ltd (SEK) might be considered a proxy for employment trends



It could be, but SEK has such a short history, we cannot backtest the idea. 

Anyway my point is, as exciting and encouraging as it might sound, the fact that market bottom precedes economy bottom is actually quite useless for picking market bottom.


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## MRC & Co (14 March 2009)

As far as the technicals, wait until the retailers get bullish again and look for it to push through lows.

As far as the fundamentals, figures don't look to be getting much better, if at all globally.  Even if GDP is negative, as are employment figures, non-farms, Japan machinery orders etc but they begin to become _less_ negative, then we may start to see some kind of decent stabilization and rally.


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## michael_selway (14 March 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> As far as the technicals, wait until the retailers get bullish again and look for it to push through lows.
> 
> As far as the fundamentals, figures don't look to be getting much better, if at all globally.  Even if GDP is negative, as are employment figures, non-farms, Japan machinery orders etc but they begin to become _less_ negative, then we may start to see some kind of decent stabilization and rally.





Very interetsing mothn ahead


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## nunthewiser (14 March 2009)

Intresting chart ........... thankyou


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## MRC & Co (14 March 2009)

Very very interesting.

Thanks Selway.


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> As far as the technicals, wait until the retailers get bullish again and look for it to push through lows.
> 
> As far as the fundamentals, figures don't look to be getting much better, if at all globally.  Even if GDP is negative, as are employment figures, non-farms, Japan machinery orders etc but they begin to become _less_ negative, then we may start to see some kind of decent stabilization and rally.






michael_selway said:


> Very interetsing mothn ahead





thanks Michael and MRC.

My gut feeling is a DCB.

Who can predict the future though ?

gg


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## Gordon Gekko (14 March 2009)

Ok so lets assume it maybe a dead cat bounce. I'm wondering at what percentage increase would members be convinced that it's not a DCB at all?
Most are calling for a bounce of say 20-25%.
Would you watch it go past that convinced it's a DCB? to 30%-40%. At what stage would it make you so crazy that you thought you missed the best investment oppertunity of a life time?

I have been dollar cost averaging into to index funds for the past year so I am by no means an expert but there is blood on the streets man. Is there no one else buying, holding at these prices? What will the ASX 200 look like in 5 years?
Should money be in a bank account earning 4% which is taxed?

"If your not on the inside your on the outside"

G


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## So_Cynical (14 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Ok so lets assume it maybe a dead cat bounce. I'm wondering at what percentage increase would members be convinced that it's not a DCB at all?
> Most are calling for a bounce of say 20-25%.
> Would you watch it go past that convinced it's a DCB? to 30%-40%. At what stage would it make you so crazy that you thought you missed the best investment opportunity of a life time?
> 
> I have been dollar cost averaging into to index funds for the past year so I am by no means an expert but there is blood on the streets man. Is there no one else buying, holding at these prices? What will the ASX 200 look like in 5 years?




Most of the people posting in this forum are traders of 1 sort or another, they buy 
trends and have systems etc....most of them are not looking for the "investment 
opportunity of a life time" 

I'm buying and holding...averaging and bottom picking....selling when appropriate.


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## Gordon Gekko (14 March 2009)

My mentor sums it up best!



“The public is out there throwing darts at a board, pal. I don’t throw darts at a board. I only bet on sure things.”

To me buying assets at depressed prices and holding for the long term is the only way to go. 


To each a zone.

Best of luck
G


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## sinner (14 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Ok so lets assume it maybe a dead cat bounce. I'm wondering at what percentage increase would members be convinced that it's not a DCB at all?
> Most are calling for a bounce of say 20-25%.
> Would you watch it go past that convinced it's a DCB? to 30%-40%. At what stage would it make you so crazy that you thought you missed the best investment oppertunity of a life time?
> 
> ...




On what basis are you dollar cost averaging in? If this is on some perceived "value" then you must be using a short period of data. Historical value based on P/E ratio of the indices indicates we have still 20-40% to drop!


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## psychic (14 March 2009)

Anyone factoring in GM filing for Chapter 11 (Bankruptcy) ?

Anyone factoring in another bail-out or complete collapse of AIG (Insurance)?

I switched to cash again as of the close of business on Friday, as the rally seems false to me.

This guy seems to know his stuff, very informative.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjEFz-TF3a4

http://www.youtube.com/user/visionvictory


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## nunthewiser (14 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> My mentor sums it up best!
> 
> 
> 
> ...





 even wozza B would be a little miffed at his current losses one would think 

blessem


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## Pythagerous (14 March 2009)

That is a great chart of The Great Depression vs Now.

Does anyone have a chart of the Great Depression, that shows the trends for the market, interest rates and unemployment?


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## drsmith (14 March 2009)

No chart but some stats on US unemployment and interest rates from the depression era.

http://academic.reed.edu/economics/course_pages/201_f06/Cases/great_depression.htm

One question that comes to mind here is how closely would the Prime 4-6 month commercial paper minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield be related to today's ted spread ?


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## Bobby (15 March 2009)

Geezzz---
Get ready for a shorting bonanza , Tuesday ? Wednesday  
Its coming real soon !


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## sinner (15 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> That is a great chart of The Great Depression vs Now.
> 
> Does anyone have a chart of the Great Depression, that shows the trends for the market, interest rates and unemployment?




Currently in the US, the U-6 measure of unemployment is higher than non-farm unemployment in the Depression.


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## light bearer (15 March 2009)

It's too early to say whether the share market has reached the bottom yet.  We need to wait at least a few months to see how the government stimulus packages are working.  It's great news that the banks in America that were going to collapse have now reported profits (i.e.Citibank and Bank of America).  It seems as though the heart of the matter in the American financial system has been stabilised.  

Iam optimistic that things will improve from now on.  The investors that are still in the market are the stayers hoping to ride out the storm, cyclone, sunami, tidal wave or financial crisis what ever the hell you want to call it.  Undoubtedly the market will recover.  It will take a considerable amount of time given the amount of losses and the extent of the housing problem in the USA.  

It's great to see China improving the living standards in it's own country so that it can sell more products to its own people.  Therefore when the rest of the world starts buying again from China the demand for Australian minerals and various other exports will increase beyond pre financial crisis figures. As China boosts its GDP to keep up with much higher internal demand get ready for the next bull.  

America is getting ready for a green and medical technology revolution.  Medical breakthroughs (genetic engineering) and 'green' hybrid cars.

I believe we are in for a massive increase in prosperity right around the  world as usually the next boom will surpass the last.  Inorder for it to be a recovery we need to see a rally of atleast 15 to 20 percent to have sufficient momentum.  The banks around the world have to be lending more again and confidence needs to improve. The market usually picks up before the end of the financial year (April, May).  These current market gains are likely to be maintained.  The market may go sideways for some time with stronger gains later in the year and a stronger recover next year.  Get ready for the ride of your lives


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## wonderrman (15 March 2009)

Lots of people are still very optimistic regarding a turn around occuring pretty soon. Don't know how this can be, people need to face reality. We went through 20 years of expansion *due to debt and massive use of leverage*. It has caused huge problems for the financial system and it has stuffed up the way government usually fix themselves in crisis. They can't and to me there is increasing evidence that this is the end of a superbubble that lasted since the 80's. You don't have to agree but do a search on Google, I can't be stuffed writing it all down here. 

Basically I think the next 5 years are a waste of time for long-term investment. The world has got itself into to deeper ****. The US are clearly screwed and the powers of the world will change to Asia and China.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/...the-lights.html

http://www.kwaves.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf 

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1226560260.php ...... are good articles that explain the current problems, very indepth analysis. 

Listen to Marc Faber's analysis on YouTube. Properaly the only person on CNBC who actually reports what happens and is unconflictated!


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## wonderrman (15 March 2009)

> I* believe we are in for a massive increase in prosperity right around the world as usually the next boom will surpass the last*.




I disagree and the comment on "how usually the next boom surpasss the last" is very vague. Markets, profits and gains were funded by debt and side bets on debt in the last bull market which caused us to make 30% year on year for ages. I believe after we come out of this ''crisis' people will not like debt as it has been so fatal to many. Wall Street will not be as profitable either as these derivated, CFDs, mortgage trading etc. will be dead because people will not trust Wall Street scum. Companies that participate in consumer descretionary activities will suffer lesser profits as people will not be as happy using there credit cards and debt. Bank manager will be tight as well in handing out loans/cc cards because of the lessions learnt in this bear market. Debt will not be as profficient in our market place. 




Above is a simple chart of the S&P 200 and how it doubled between '04 and ;07. This is simply not sustainable across the next bull market and it was again funded by debt! Debt,debt products and profits funded by debt that will probably not carry across to the next bull market! To me it is obvious that we will not be in for massive increase in prosperity. Prosperity will again return to the people who actually make a real product (commodities, agriculture etc.), not the ones who pile together pieces of crap and sell it to a consumer who doesn't know what it is!


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## alphaman (15 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I believe after we come out of this ''crisis' people will not like debt as it has been so fatal to many.



I hope so, but I doubt it. People have very short memory you know. Sooner or later someone will re-discover debt as a way to increase "wealth".


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## CanOz (15 March 2009)

Here is some interesting opinion on the topic of the thread.

CanOz


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## wonderrman (15 March 2009)

alphaman said:


> I hope so, but I doubt it. People have very short memory you know. Sooner or later someone will re-discover debt as a way to increase "wealth".




I disagree to some extend. If you look at the graphs below you will see that there was an enermous increase in debt over the 20 yr 'superbubble' period beginning in 1980. Who says we can't return to the period before hand. Yes we may return to the debt ladden period of yester year again, I wouldn't say for at least another 30 yrs though.


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## wonderrman (15 March 2009)

Another view of where the world will be in five years and how the economies on a global scale are going to be effected. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg

His name is Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Institution and he has predicted the 1987 stock market crash, fall of Soviet Union and last years stock market fall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Celente

http://www.trendsresearch.com

I really think everyone should watch the YT video. What he says makes so much sense.


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## CanOz (15 March 2009)

Another interesting thing i have found today when scanning US Stocks, is there seems to be allot of bearish patterns that are in the last leg of forming. For example, Triple tops, Rising Wedges, H&S patterns that are in their last up leg, which is this rally. Time will tell how they develop though, and its just an observation.

I'll post a couple of examples.

Many i have saved to my watch list FOR Shorts as 'Pending'.

CanOz


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## CanOz (15 March 2009)

Heres three, and there are dozens more, all this from one scan on the NYSE.

I was actually looking for some longs, but mostly all I'm finding are undeveloped shorts.

CanOz


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## nunthewiser (15 March 2009)

Cheers canoz .. now check out BHP chart 

this ducky waiting in anticipation


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## CanOz (15 March 2009)

Yep, could be an expanding triangle or an H&S Pattern.....or of course nothing at all! I'll put it in the "shorts pending" list anyway!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Uncle Festivus (15 March 2009)

CanOz, I think that pattern is referred to as a [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]*Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (Megaphone Chart Pattern)*[/FONT]? Usually after an advancing phase, but bearish in the end? Who knows in this climate?


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> CanOz, I think that pattern is referred to as a [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]*Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (Megaphone Chart Pattern)*[/FONT]? Usually after an advancing phase, but bearish in the end? Who knows in this climate?




Festive , I was never in to synchronised swimming so wouldn't have a clue what a reverse symmetrical without lippy looks like, but I do respect the all ords and trendlines, and would appreciate yours and others opinions on the long term trendline of the xao. 

I feel this is a dead cat bounce and with time it will stabilise at 3000 or just under.

gg


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## nunthewiser (15 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> CanOz, I think that pattern is referred to as a [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]*Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (Megaphone Chart Pattern)*[/FONT]? Usually after an advancing phase, but bearish in the end? Who knows in this climate?




LOL im not up with the lingo but will agree with your terminology as my naming it as a "watch this sucka fall soon " pattern is prolly not as technical


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## CanOz (15 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> CanOz, I think that pattern is referred to as a [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]*Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (Megaphone Chart Pattern)*[/FONT]? Usually after an advancing phase, but bearish in the end? Who knows in this climate?




According to the The Pattern Site you are quite right, but Pattern Explorer calls them Expanding Triangles.

Usually associated with markets tops & bottoms.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Dowdy (15 March 2009)

It's a DCB

You can't have a recovery when all the crap is still in the system. Companies need to fail, assets need to be wiped out (the bad ones) and housing needs to fall to return to normal market price - not government manipulated price


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## light bearer (15 March 2009)

Yeah, it certainly is very gloomy and it sure has taken a long time to get where it is.  You can study all the trends and cycles and so on but what may be of most significance is plain human psychology.

People are not in the long term going to change there spending habits.  What is going to happen is that greater financial regulation is going to stop people from getting into such deep dodo.

People are borrowing more money for houses as the Australian housing market is not doing to bad with the government incentive.  Businesses need to borrow money to make money.  Governments are borrowing money to fund the stimulus packages.  Money sure makes the world go around and when the worlds money starts moving more quickly it boosts confidence.  Consumers in the US are back spending.  Not every one is going to hide underneath their beds forever! Not everyone is a Casper Milktoast!

Hopefully with all this free trade continuing to go on poorer people around the world are going to be lifted out of poverty.  With more people (consumers) spending there is going to be more work and prosperity for everyone except for the people still under their beds.

A green revolution and medical breakthroughs from genetic research are going to save us all financially as well as the very planet we live on.

America started manufacturing lots of cars after World war 2 and that got the world economy going after the great depression.  The internet revolution directed us out of the bad recession in the 1990's (remember the Australian stock market fell by half within a month).  It's no different this time and health and green technology are places to be employed and to have money invested.

IT's still going to be painful as life is at times. However in the long term the market is a winner.  I'm regularly investing in value and letting compound interest work its wonders.  In the long term the market is predictable and there is no guessing.

I think the dead cat impacted the ground with such force as to almost bury itself.  Things are going to pick up more towards the end of the year.


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## Sean K (15 March 2009)

Does a dead cat necessarily mean new lows will be made later, or can we have a bear bounce, head back towards the lows, not take them out, and then head sideways for a time and onto recovery?


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## CanOz (15 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Does a dead cat necessarily mean new lows will be made later, or can we have a bear bounce, head back towards the lows, not take them out, and then head sideways for a time and onto recovery?




The name of this thread is confusing. Recovery refers generally to the economy, and Dead Cat Bounce, usually refers to the index, or individual equity price. 

Sure, both are related but the equity markets usually price in an economic recovery well before it happens...perhaps thats the thread started had in mind.

Perhaps, "New Bull market or Bear Rally?"

Cheers,


CanOz


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## wonderrman (15 March 2009)

> People are not in the long term going to change there spending habits. What is going to happen is that greater financial regulation is going to stop people from getting into such deep dodo.




People changed their spending habits in the first place because banks/credit card/mortgage companies aloud them to. People have a very short memory, or don't know anything about market history. Banks have been burnt and hit hard by the current crisis, do you really think they are going to return to lending out so much in the next bull market? I highly doubt it. 

I don't think many people know why there was such greater lending in the first place. Since the gold standard was removed, a new asset had to emerge as the international reserve, the US took it's place. Because of this diversion, a huge account deficit in the US emerges. It sits at around $2b per day, and it finds its way into banking systems around the world as new deposits. Enter the Fractional Reserve banking system  multipler of 10 times new deposits. This means that banks somewhere in the world have been given the capacity to increase their loans by $20b per day, provided that they can find suitabe borrowers. And they will what ever using what ever means.

Believe me when I say, I'm 100% sure that after this crisis the US dollar will not be the world's reserve. Google an article called Chaos Chronicled by Alf Field for more info on the FRBS and how it manages deposits with banks, to long and to late to write about here. 



> People are borrowing more money for houses as the Australian housing market is not doing to bad with the government incentive. Businesses need to borrow money to make money. Governments are borrowing money to fund the stimulus packages. Money sure makes the world go around and* when the worlds money starts moving more quickly it boosts confidence*.




Mate another generalisation. What happens when there is not enough money for the government/businesses to borrow? The stimulus packages are tiny compared to GDP, acc deficit etc. They will do nothing! They're small. Rudd and Obama are simply pissing in the ocean with their stimulas packages. They're a waste of time will have little, if any effect.



> A green revolution and medical breakthroughs from genetic research are going to save us all financially as well as the very planet we live on.




They're some great hopes mate! Do you have any inside info that I don't? From what I've read we're no closer to finding a problem to stop CFC emissions, we're no closer to stopping the ice cap's melting which will cause sea levels to rise. Making assumptions is a fools game.



> In the long term the market is *predictable* and there is no guessing.




That is utter bs. So I'm guessing you predicated the downturn Ã³f '08? Please tell me how you can sustain your views that "Ã­n the long term the markt is a winner" and "I believe we are in for a massive increase in prosperity right around the world as usually the next boom will surpass the last." Do you have any evidence to support your claims at all.



> Things are going to pick up more towards the end of the year.




Again, any reasons for this to occur? Or is it purely a guess based on no fact or evidence at all.

I'm sorry if I'm coming across as rude or something like that but I'm sick of hearing and reading such uninformed generalised garbage. I would suggest that you take some time learning a bit of market history and how this crisis actually occurred.


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## alphaman (15 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Does a dead cat necessarily mean new lows will be made later, or can we have a bear bounce, head back towards the lows, not take them out, and then head sideways for a time and onto recovery?



The cat is dead, so no recovery. But of course we know markets do eventually recover. It just takes a long time. 

Statistically this rally is too big to be a bull market rally. In a bull market you get smaller but sustained rises.


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## CanOz (16 March 2009)

Well said Wonderrman.

I think its safe to say there are a few more 'shoes to drop' yet. I think we'll see another new low before Christmas. We're in a downtrend, and we need some serious numbers to be taken out before we can think otherwise.

Check out that pattern site for Thomas Bulkowski's index targets, looks like he is thinking of another low as well!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## dhukka (16 March 2009)

M34N said:


> dkukka; you took the words right out of my mouth! A company that (supposedly) creates a profit after having $45b injected into it is not something I consider positive. I will cheer and celebrate when these companies turn a profit without the taxpayer bailing them out every few months with another lousy 20b here, 40b there...
> 
> I also find it funny that people can conclude a bottom in this bear market based solely on 3 trading days. It's more logical to consider this a simple rebound after a series of sharp sell-offs. It's also a sigh of relief as the fact that nothing worse had come out of the market in the past few days and all the bad news has been factored in - for now. The better question is how many consider this another bull trap similar to the rebound after the sell-off in November?




It is amazing how quickly sentiment can turn, everyone was talking about DOW 5000 and now after a few days of gains we're off to the races again. We were overdue for a decent sized bounce, we didn't really get anything of significance in December. Tough to see this as any more than a bear market rally though. Might carry through to April until the market sees how dismal 1Q09 earnings are the banks need a fresh round of capital injections


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## light bearer (16 March 2009)

I appreciate everyones comments.  I am here to learn and to 'share' (ha ha 

I have done some research into genetic engineering at Uni and i am quite certain it is going to make great changes in our life times and within the next few years.  Sorry, I am not writing complex essays here - just bouncing a few ideas around.

Science and Technology have continuously given the market a boost through new products and innovations. Everyone knows that.  It is interesting to see how much government investment is going this way.

I didn't allow *#!@$$% Finance to put my money into ABC Learning because i could see from a Four Corners report how ABC Learning Centres overly aggressive tactics against competition was going to have bad repercussions. I was basing my decision on more a gut sense rather than all the financial positive indicators.

I have just sacked my financial advisor(leech).  I have some managed funds and i believe i am paying them enough to manage my investments.  I hope to became more market wise as i have taken control.

It's good to have as many technical market indicators as you can and to have all the necessary facts.  What you then must do is meditate on the 'hara' an area an inch below the belly button as is the common practice of Japanese business men and to from there realise an answer as to what action to follow.

Hope this helps


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## derty (16 March 2009)

light bearer said:


> What you then must do is meditate on the 'hara' an area an inch below the belly button as is the common practice of Japanese business men and to from there realise an answer as to what action to follow.



So you are saying a bit of navel gazing will get us out of this mess? :

btw, I think nanotech is going to fuel the next great boom.


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## Pythagerous (16 March 2009)

There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.

After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.

I would imagine that those who have panicked previously and sold, are too scared to put there toe back in the water just yet, and with the majority thinking that it is just a dead cat bounce, there wouldnt be too many others rushing to get in their.

The question is, who is forcing the market up. Surely it is not your average mum and dad investor, as they are too scared to invest. If it is simply traders forcing the market up, they are just shooting themselves in the foot, as it appears the majority of people arn't buying it. The more I think of it, the more I have a sneaking suspicion that this is not just a rally, established by people trying to take a quick profit.


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## enigmatic (16 March 2009)

Just thought i add something, if you look at the last few DCB you will noticed they too increased over numerious days after the bounce then stablised for the next 1-3months later declining again.


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## CanOz (16 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.
> 
> After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.
> 
> ...




Bear markets rally sharply because of short covering. Don't forget whos driving this market, and they still allow shorting. If the bears continue to short and then get caught, the rally will still get some good sharp moves up.

CanOz


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## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

> There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.
> 
> After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.
> 
> ...




We’ve seen a bear market rally all ready back in Nov/Dec were the market rose by 20%. The same thing is happening now, but who knows how long it will go for. Could be weeks or months. I bet your bottom dollar that as soon as we get some very negative news we will revert back to the down trend. 

I feel like I have repeated myself a million times over. The world is too leveraged and this leverage has to be undone. The market will continue to go down because the US cannot do anything about it! They either face the problem of allowing the market to play its course or try and do something about it by injecting money into the economy, which will debase the currency and make the dollar worthless. 

Actually, on the topic of how opinions can change. I read on the Age website that there is now “confidence that the US has reached the bottom and markets will rebound because eco activity will increase”, something along those lines. I can’t believe how stupid some people are. What good news has seen over these past weeks to indicate an economic turnaround? Absolutely none! Citigroup, which is bankrupt except for the stupid intervention of people on Capital Hill, leaked an email saying they’re profitable for the first two months! I thought they said they weren’t going to cut their dividend? But I’m pretty sure they have. How can everyone believe any of these morons after what we’ve just been through? Let’s just wait to the Q1 results, all the people who think we’ve ‘seen the bottom, or that this is affirmative for a rebound will hit rock bottom yet again. Don’t be suckers boys!  The market will play anyone who engages it in times like these, take a step back and look at what is actually happening. Read a bit and learn how this crisis actually occurred.


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## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

More comments on DCB .... http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/roubini-reflections-on-latest-suckers.html


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## MRC & Co (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I bet *your* bottom dollar that as soon as we get some very negative news we will revert back to the down trend.




You would bet my bottom dollar, or your own?  

Very negative news pushing us into a down trend, like the worst Japanese GDP figures since 74?  Record breaking US unemployment figures?  Or diabolical, completely unexpected, Australian GDP figures?  All of which didn't cause any kind of sustained downtrend, and were actually bought up.


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## Wysiwyg (16 March 2009)

> Originally Posted by wonderrman
> I bet *your* bottom dollar that as soon as we get some very negative news we will revert back to the down trend.



Yeah funny that. :

Re: Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

I can be honest and say I don`t know if the low of this bear market is in.Completely unbiased because I have no financial investment in the immediate outcome.


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## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

> ou would bet my bottom dollar, or your own?
> 
> Very negative news pushing us into a down trend, like the worst Japanese GDP figures since 74? Record breaking US unemployment figures? Or diabolical, completely unexpected, Australian GDP figures? All of which didn't cause any kind of sustained downtrend, and were actually bought up.




I would bet my own money at a blink of an idea.

By downtrend I do not mean anything technical at all. I simply mean that people will **** themselves again because they've had false hopes over where the marketing is heading and will dump shares again.


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## Glen48 (16 March 2009)

Helicopter Ben tells us it will all be over by Xmas so sit back and relax ...unless he is wrong..........again.


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## MRC & Co (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I would bet my own money at a blink of an idea.
> 
> By downtrend I do not mean anything technical at all. I simply mean that people will **** themselves again because they've had false hopes over where the marketing is heading and will dump shares again.




But bad news has been bought, so why would it sell off this time?

And the second paragraph does mean technicals, it is just human psychology, which is what you are mentioning.


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## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> But bad news has been bought, so why would it sell off this time?
> 
> And the second paragraph does mean technicals, it is just human psychology, which is what you are mentioning.




Mate are you dellusional? You think every piece of bad news has been factored into this market place? I'm not explaining myself again because I have done it enough on this thread.

Read the information I have posted!! It may be long but it will give you some insight into the crisis and how much worse it can get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1226560260.php

What I am suggesting here is that the whole US dollar being the reserve currency of the world will change! It caused the problem because of the massive trade deficit it caused when people settled their money. This left a **** load of money for the banks to lend out to consumers. This caused the debt problem, along with governments intervening with the market place through interest rates. 

When this happens do you think the market would have factored it in?

When the US dollar is worthless because they've printed so much of it and inflation peeks its head out do you think the markets would have factored it in?

When commercial vacancies rates increase by a tonne do you think that will be factored in? What about unemployment possibily reaching 20%?

I highly doubt it and Mr. Market will again dish out a beating. Don't get sucked in! It sounds like you have.


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## CanOz (16 March 2009)

ooooh, this is getting interesting =pulls up a chair and waits for Mr.C's barrage=

CanOz


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## MRC & Co (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Mate are you dellusional? You think every piece of bad news has been factored into this market place? I'm not explaining myself again because I have done it enough on this thread.
> 
> Read the information I have posted!! It may be long but it will give you some insight into the crisis and how much worse it can get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> ...




lol.

So the US is going to have staggering unemployment and yet inflation will be peeking it's head out?  

How are you trading this, long gold, short USD with no stop?  Or are you waiting for this 'bad news' so you can short equities without a stop?  Did you go short the Australian GDP figures?

ha ha, no barrage Can, sorry for the lack of fireworks, just interested to know how this will all be traded, considering all this bad news actually made a market rally..........  Wonder if wonder himself sold all that news?  Again,


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## CanOz (16 March 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> lol.
> 
> So the US is going to have staggering unemployment and yet inflation will be peeking it's head out?
> 
> ...




I can relate, i learned the hard way two years ago, shorting the crap out of everything because i didn't like the way things looked....i was right of course, just 12 months early! lol!

Never fight the market.

CanOz


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## Cartman (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> *Mate are you dellusional*? You think every piece of bad news has been factored into this market place? I'm not explaining myself again because I have done it enough on this thread.
> 
> Read the information *I have posted*!! It may be long but *it will give you some insight* into the crisis and how much worse it can get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> ...





 ----- how old did u say/pretend u were again wonder man/boy --- 

big ego for a young man ---- not a good mix imo ----


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## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

> just interested to know how this will all be traded, considering all this bad news actually made a market rally.......... Wonder if wonder himself sold all that news? Again,




What caused this rally was a leaked memo saying that Citigroup was profitable. Do you really think that this is true? Who would believe these people on Wall Street who have lied and lied and caused so much grief over the past 18 months. They lied about their dividend before and then they cut it. I will wait to the Q1 results come out and then see how Citigroup are going, and how the markets are in general.

I have all readdy said it here before, we have seen a rally back in November '08 based on false hopes and perceptations, the investor was put back in its place by the market.

I never said that the US unemployment and inflation will occur at the same time. Governments can not get away with producing lots and lots and lots of money at free will. A systemic rise in prices is caused by a decline in the purchasing power of the currency - not the rise in the price of goods or services. Now, I think the government is printing money at amazing rates, arn't they? Inflation will bite us on the bum at some stage.



> How are you trading this, long gold, short USD with no stop? Or are you waiting for this 'bad news' so you can short equities without a stop? Did you go short the Australian GDP figures?




Well I'm young and don't have much capital to play with. I am simply looking at short term trading based on patterns, the trend is your friend. Eg: BHP, bought at $27.81 at the 6th of March. Will see how it goes and once it reaches $33 (which it should based on the charts) I will sell. If I had enough capital then yes I would hold physical gold.

No I did not go short the GDP figures. Shorting anything in crazy markets like this is stupid unless you know something that everybody else doesn't. And yes I do use a stop when I trade, if you didn't you would be a fool.


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## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> big ego for a young man ---- not a good mix imo ----




So what I say comes back to my age ... it is not ego but fact cartman.


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## CanOz (16 March 2009)

Wonderrman, no one is really arguing with your facts, they're clear. The question is, whether its a bounce or a new trend, and clearly there a few here that actually agree with you but are finding this to be a tradeable bounce. Myself included.

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

CanOz said:


> Wonderrman, no one is really arguing with your facts, they're clear. The question is, whether its a bounce or a new trend, and clearly there a few here that actually agree with you but are finding this to be a tradeable bounce. Myself included.
> 
> Cheers,
> CanOz




Thank you, it felt like I was arguing against the whole world. Sorry if I came across as rude which I probably did. It is indeed tradeable, as I said I have open positions even though I think we're in the ****.


----------



## MRC & Co (16 March 2009)

No, don't think Citigroup caused this rally.  US had fallen dramatically within a short time-frame and sentiment was overly negative.  Many were short and longs were covered, time for a short squeeze without enough longs left to cover and create enough resistance. 

US inflation is near negative and declining, as is the case with most economies.  Check out China's latest PPI and CPI.  Staggering unemployment and excess inflation won't occur at the same time now?  So what does that mean for the price of eggs and how will you trade that?

You can go long gold on the GOLD ETF if you are prepared to work the spread or pay the spread.

*No I did not go short the GDP figures. Shorting anything in crazy markets like this is stupid unless you know something that everybody else doesn't.*

LOL, you just said you would bet your bottom dollar the market will tank if some bad news came out, am I mistaken?  I gather that means 'shorting', crazy?  Huh?


----------



## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> No, don't think Citigroup caused this rally.  US had fallen dramatically within a short time-frame and sentiment was overly negative.  Many were short and longs were covered, time for a short squeeze without enough longs left to cover and create enough resistance.




Yes that may be true, but a catalyst is needed. You don't think the email would be it. 



> So what does that mean for the price of eggs and how will you trade that?




I won't trade eggs. I will trade where I see an uptrend (if there is any anywhere). 



> No I did not go short the GDP figures. Shorting anything in crazy markets like this is stupid unless you know something that everybody else doesn't.
> 
> LOL, you just said you would bet your bottom dollar the market will tank if some bad news came out, am I mistaken? I gather that means 'shorting', crazy? Huh?




Yes I believe that if there is very bad news markets will fall. That does not mean that I have to risk all my capital does it? Besides, as I said, I am not in a position to short because of my young age and capital restrictions.


----------



## CanOz (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes I believe that if there is very bad news markets will fall. That does not mean that I have to risk all my capital does it? Besides, as I said, I am not in a position to short because of my young age and capital restrictions.




You gotta give the market some respect though WMan, watch how it reacts to bad news, if the markets absorbs these crappy numbers and goes again, then its got some legs. Once we start reacting badly again to the numbers, and inevitably that will happen, get your shorts back on!

CanOz


----------



## Cartman (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Well I'm young and *don't have much capital to play with*.






wonderrman said:


> So what I say comes back to my age ... it is not ego but fact cartman.




how much have u actually traded w/m ------------ if u r not  a seasoned trader, why do u speak with so much *authority*?? ------- that to me points to either a *youthful ego* ----- or someone who has actually had *more experience than they admit to*  ---------- either way, i'm a little unconvinced ---


----------



## drsmith (16 March 2009)

One thing we can be more confident of is that the current deleveraging will continue and therefore in real terms it's hard to see last week's low as being the bottom.

In nominal terms, who knows. That depends on how the current deleveraging cycle plays out.


----------



## MRC & Co (16 March 2009)

Yes, that is my point Can.  Cheers.  You have to look how the market reacts to things iff you are going to trade, that or take a long-term fundamental view and put your nuts on it with a HUGE stop (unless you can time a great entry).  

Wonder, you state the economic state is dire, the US currency will basically fold, yet you are not long the GOLD ETF (yes, you can afford that), and you are actually looking for LONGS?  Shorting does not mean you will loose all your capital, and if you ARE DEFINATELY RIGHT, then you shouldn't be worried anyways.


----------



## alphaman (16 March 2009)

I'm sure there will be more bad news to come, but the thing is, even bears were expecting a rally. Everyone was waiting for a trigger of any sort. Now that we have got it, just trade it or leave it. Historically bear market rallies are very profitable on their own, not to mention further shorting opportunities later on.


----------



## wonderrman (16 March 2009)

> how much have u actually traded w/m ------------ if u r not a seasoned trader, why do u speak with so much authority?? ------- that to me points to either a youthful ego ----- or someone who has actually had more experience than they admit to ---------- either way, i'm a little unconvinced ---




For the happiness of the masses, from now on believe that I am a 55 yr old multimillionaire who has been away the markets for years. What does a number have to do with anything if the argument I am putting forward is quite logical? What I have been saying regarding the underlying fundermentals of the economy and the US system has not had anything to do with trading, I am not making out that I am a seasoned trader ... except for my comment on holding BHP. 



> GOLD ETF (yes, you can afford that), and you are actually looking for LONGS? Shorting does not mean you will loose all your capital, and if you ARE DEFINATELY RIGHT, then you shouldn't be worried anyways.




Yes, but what I have been saying on this thread could take a few years to eventulate, therefore I would be waiting a long time for a return of money. Because I have not much capital I need to try and make money in the short term, that is why I would perfer to idenifity uptrends occuring on the stock market were patterns are forming and there is greater chance I can make money on in quick period. That BHP chart is the perfect example. If I go long the gold EFT, or short the the market as a whole, I could be waiting a long time to see the trade come to fruitration. I would prefer to direct my limited capital into a trade that has a better chance of coming to fruitration in a quicker period.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (16 March 2009)

I think this DCB might have some legs, especially if they co-ordinate the market 'leak' announcements etc, because some of the counterparties like Goldman Sachs etc are getting some big payouts from the taxpayer stimulis via AIG. Each one will studiously put forward their 'profit' results, all making money if you don't count the bail out money's, greasing the bull bounce? Only when the real economy stats becaome overwhelming eg new unemployment consistently coming in at 600k plus PER MONTH, will the market finally capitulate to new lows, and a final low? 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={74DD6FC0-D2D8-4925-8B84-F8E4BEBEEADB}



> *American International Group said over the weekend it had paid over $100 billion of its bailout funds to U.S. states and international banks including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale.*


----------



## grace (16 March 2009)

drsmith said:


> One thing we can be more confident of is that the current deleveraging will continue and therefore in real terms it's hard to see last week's low as being the bottom.
> 
> In nominal terms, who knows. That depends on how the current deleveraging cycle plays out.




Kohler was on Inside Business on ABC on Sunday saying exactly this.  He estimates it will take a few years for the deleveraging to play out.  I hope so!


----------



## Cartman (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> For the happiness of the masses, from now on believe that I am a 55 yr old multimillionaire who has been away the markets for years. *What does a number have to do with anything* if the argument I am putting forward is quite logical?




just pulling yr chain 'wonder' ---- my comments werent anything to do with yr economic arguments, which all seem logical in essence (although not particularly tradeable on a short term basis)  --------- i was just kind of amused at u calling Mirc "delusional" ----


----------



## nomore4s (16 March 2009)

drsmith said:


> One thing we can be more confident of is that the current deleveraging will continue and therefore in real terms it's hard to see last week's low as being the bottom.
> 
> In nominal terms, who knows. That depends on how the current deleveraging cycle plays out.




The thing is, I think most of the deleveraging in the stock market has already taken place - hence the falls and speed of the decent. All the people leveraged to the eye balls in the stock market have now exited - think Storm, Opes etc etc. And people will be very slow to leverage like that into the stock market again. So we could see more deleveraging in the real economy without too much effect to the stock market.

The other thing to keep in mind is the stock market bottoms well before the real economy - it certainly did during the great depression.

IMO the real economy needs to start to catch up with the doom & gloom of the stock market. There has been a lot of very negative scenarios talked about and put forward and the stock market might have been priced for some of these worse case scenarios. But as yet we haven't seen anything close to this in the real economy especially in Aust - let's be honest, so far we have only seen a mild recession. Until we see some real deterioration in the economy I think the falls are over done - hence the chances of a very strong bear market rally. Also ultra bearish views seem to be the standard view of the media and general public, which normally indicates a turnaround of some sort.

Now before I get flamed and called a moron, I'm not calling an ultimate bottom to the market, new bull market or that we won't get a serious recession/depression etc etc. It's just in my view the market looks to have priced in something close to a depression but we are yet to see anything near to that. In fact my business is going so well I've put on 2 new staff in the last fortnight - and I only had 7 staff on before that.

Don't let your bearish views blind you to the opportunities that are appearing in the market and that the strong bear market rally will present, just manage your risks.


----------



## nunthewiser (16 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Don't let your bearish views blind you to the opportunities that are appearing in the market and that the a strong rally will present, just manage your risks.




BINGO and well said 

i personally think we havent seen OVERALL bottom yet on the ASX but that aint gunna stop this norty nun from ejoying the spoils that get tossed my way in the meantime

cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> but a catalyst is needed. You don't think the email would be it.



Nah we were on our way days before C news. any one with a offer in the market would of felt the buyers about the 5th - 6th


----------



## wonderrman (17 March 2009)

> Don't let your bearish views blind you to the opportunities that are appearing in the market and that the strong bear market rally will present, just manage your risks.




Don't worry I'm not going to put aside the possible opportunities. What I've stated in this thread could take years to play out, in the near term we could see rallies of 40%, 60% etc. before we truely get to the crux of the problem. As I said my trading is purely based on identifiying clear uptrends, the trend is your friend.


----------



## Pythagerous (17 March 2009)

After yesterday afternoon when the market started to trend south, I thought that the bubble could have burst, but the All Ords is strong today and heading into the vacinty of 3400.

As i see it, from here there are 3 main possibilities.

a) The market continues to head up, and we are past the bottom
b) The market may continue up for a bit, but comes back down to 3100
c) There is a huge sell off, and the all ords head towards 2800

Take your pick.


----------



## enigmatic (17 March 2009)

Still expecting it to rise up to 3450 or maybe 3500 off the Bollingerbands and then stablise arround 3000-3200.
But we will see if it heads north and stays above the 21Day MVA for a while i might need to buy in.


----------



## wonderrman (17 March 2009)

> a) The market continues to head up, and we are past the bottom
> b) The market may continue up for a bit, but comes back down to 3100
> c) There is a huge sell off, and the all ords head towards 2800




I don't know the precise movements of the market really in the near term. I've laid out my thoughts, but they could take a few years to eventuate and we could see many a bear market rally in that period. 

This could be a massive bear market rally though so I'm just working on a trade by trade basis ... judging each and everyone on it's merits. The trend is your friend.


----------



## sammy84 (17 March 2009)

I was expecting the market to make one more fall lower for the bottom to be in place, but after todays close I am starting to think this Cat has some very strong legs.


----------



## sammy84 (17 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Who knows the precise movements of the market really in the near term.




Technical analysts can have a pretty good stab.


----------



## drsmith (17 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> The thing is, I think most of the deleveraging in the stock market has already taken place - hence the falls and speed of the decent. All the people leveraged to the eye balls in the stock market have now exited - think Storm, Opes etc etc. And people will be very slow to leverage like that into the stock market again. So we could see more deleveraging in the real economy without too much effect to the stock market.
> 
> The other thing to keep in mind is the stock market bottoms well before the real economy - it certainly did during the great depression.
> 
> ...



It's the deleveraging in the real economy that concerns me and it's medium to longer term impact.

From this point I feel the best we can hope for is a market along the lines of what happened in the years following the Feb 1988 bottom after the 1987 crash.


----------



## CanOz (17 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> I was expecting the market to make one more fall lower for the bottom to be in place, but after todays close I am starting to think this Cat has some very strong legs.




Yep, this is certainly adding some positive information for a continued rally.

Nice move all day long with a strong close. Be interested to what the SPI traders saw today too.

CanOz


----------



## Largesse (17 March 2009)

this heady optimism is worrying.
what has changed in the last week? NOTHING 


see you all at 2500


----------



## CanOz (17 March 2009)

Largesse said:


> this heady optimism is worrying.
> what has changed in the last week? NOTHING
> 
> 
> see you all at 2500





See you there too, a few dollars better off.

CanOz


----------



## Largesse (17 March 2009)

putputputputput


----------



## Pythagerous (17 March 2009)

Largesse, with the market always looking ahead into the future, the question is not always what has happened in the last week, but what are people anticipating in the future.

If the market was dictated by what happened over the last week, we would all own billions.


----------



## sinner (17 March 2009)

Largesse said:


> this heady optimism is worrying.
> what has changed in the last week? NOTHING
> 
> 
> see you all at 2500




Man you gotta be watching CNBC and Bloomberg these last few nights during the NYSE.

Propaganda coming thick and fast.

Bernanke even traded his crystal ball in on 1y warranty for one that works, and now thinks we will be sweet before NYE.

EDIT:
PS heard a great statistic last night. In the US it now takes 5USD of debt to create 1USD of GDP. The most expensive ever.


----------



## Glen48 (17 March 2009)

http://mises.org/multimedia/mp3/ASC2009/ASC09_Schiff.mp3
Peter Schiff.


----------



## tommymac (17 March 2009)

sinner said:


> EDIT:
> PS heard a great statistic last night. In the US it now takes 5USD of debt to create 1USD of GDP. The most expensive ever.




If that's true we're in worse trouble than I thought.


----------



## goldchopper (17 March 2009)

sinner said:


> Man you gotta be watching CNBC and Bloomberg these last few nights during the NYSE.
> 
> Propaganda coming thick and fast.
> 
> ...




We all have a long way to go here. Its the eternal optimism inside driving the curent rally. How can Citi be nearly bankrupt, then turn a profit. Its a nice rally because not seen one for a while, but now is the chance to buy oil and gold still. Financials may look cheap, still months and quarters of unwinding here. Centrals and govt can only do so much.


----------



## Largesse (17 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Largesse, with the market always looking ahead into the future, the question is not always what has happened in the last week, but what are people anticipating in the future.
> 
> If the market was dictated by what happened over the last week, we would all own billions.






Pythagor*as*


----------



## MRC & Co (17 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.
> 
> After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.
> 
> The question is, who is forcing the market up. Surely it is not your average mum and dad investor, as they are too scared to invest. If it is simply traders forcing the market up, they are just shooting themselves in the foot, as it appears the majority of people arn't buying it. The more I think of it, the more I have a sneaking suspicion that this is not just a rally, established by people trying to take a quick profit.




I like the way you think.

But watch how sentiment changes though, is the media already talking about a potential low (bet at least they aren't saying, stay clear, "there is no end in sight" anymore)...........


----------



## Largesse (17 March 2009)

sinner said:


> Man you gotta be watching CNBC and Bloomberg these last few nights during the NYSE.
> 
> Propaganda coming thick and fast.
> 
> ...




I'm waiting for Cramer to come out with another 'BUY! BUY! BUY!/ THE REBOUND IS HERE' call.
And when he does, i will max my account shorting the **** out of everything i can get my hands on (except gold)


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 March 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.
> 
> After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.
> 
> ...




yep I am thinking on the same terms, but in no way 100% on anything yet.

Even me the great USD bull is now looking to change my trading account to EURO as base. .... seriously I am going to change one and fund it slowly in euro, while I move out of USD.

Or another reason Pythagerous, it's the mass of shorts popping!   

interesting times coming....


----------



## Taltan (18 March 2009)

Interesting times indeed. In 1929 the Dow dropped from 51% before rising 48%. It than proceeded to drop another 86% for a total drop of 89% (381 to 42). 

Of course times have changed and I mention the above only as a warning. I think this could be a recovery and I don't have a great answer for Pythagerous.
The main problem is that it does not seem enough toxic debt has been bought to account and when the next big fish drops or needs govt assistance market sentiment will change, surely not everyone insured with AIG.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (18 March 2009)

I think the 'rally' has just about run it's course, mainly due to a huge swath of bad US fundamentals about to land which will likely set off stage 2 of the bear market to new lows. 

The sub prime market is entering a new wave of resets from April onwards into 2010. 

The new home construction data is a statistical anomaly that most likely will be revised down again, but in any event it will only worsen the current glut of housing that nobody wants or can afford anyway. 

Unemployment still parabolic negative. 

Foreign holders of US debt net sellers now. 

Options expiry week, short covering, all over by Friday?

The flight out of quality has begun, the markets are behind the curve this time, sell into the rally? 

Sucking the last bit of capital out of the bulls left with cash.

Then, Australia will have a _real_ recession instead of this Rudd recession.

Other than that I'm quit bullish


----------



## CanOz (18 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think the 'rally' has just about run it's course, mainly due to a huge swath of bad US fundamentals about to land which will likely set off stage 2 of the bear market to new lows.
> 
> The sub prime market is entering a new wave of resets from April onwards into 2010.
> 
> ...




Hourly ES is approaching oversold, we could have a pullback tonight....is the XJO leading the S&P??? LOL! Seems that way.

CanOz


----------



## doctorj (18 March 2009)

Credit Suisse has released a note on bear market rallys today.  Apparently the average rally during the 1929-1933 bear market was 30%.  So far, the average rally in this bear market is 14%.  We're up about 12% so far this time, so we may be due some larger bounces either this time or in the near future.


----------



## Aussiejeff (19 March 2009)

doctorj said:


> Credit Suisse has released a note on bear market rallys today.  Apparently the average rally during the 1929-1933 bear market was 30%.  So far, the average rally in this bear market is 14%.  We're up about 12% so far this time, so we may be due some larger bounces either this time or in the near future.




A bigger Dead Cat Bounce is not hard to forecast, with BO finally tossing a Trillion to the hungry alleycats overnight. MEE-OOOWWWW! 

The question is, what happens when those ravenous pussies come back, scratched and bleeding, demanding another Trillion-worth of Bailout Bikkies in 3 months time? Will there be any juice left in the shock paddles?


----------



## satanoperca (23 March 2009)

This is one bouncey cat.

S&P/ASX 200 up 2.24% to 3543.

How much higher can a dead cat bounce as this one seem very alive at the moment?

Can anyone give an incite into what is driving this run?

Cheers


----------



## Grinder (23 March 2009)

As high as the market wants it to. My guess is it's all the investors that have been out the market and now itching to get back in, based on all false hope in the US.


----------



## white_goodman (23 March 2009)

Largesse said:


> I'm waiting for Cramer to come out with another 'BUY! BUY! BUY!/ THE REBOUND IS HERE' call.
> And when he does, i will max my account shorting the **** out of everything i can get my hands on (except gold)




and I'll be buying bear stearns...wait what?


----------



## MRC & Co (23 March 2009)

Grinder said:


> As high as the market wants it to. My guess is it's all the investors that have been out the market and now itching to get back in, based on all false hope in the US.




Exactly.

Will 3800s do that?


----------



## dhukka (23 March 2009)

Taltan said:


> Interesting times indeed. In 1929 the Dow dropped from 51% before rising 48%. It than proceeded to drop another 86% for a total drop of 89% (381 to 42).
> 
> Of course times have changed and I mention the above only as a warning. I think this could be a recovery and I don't have a great answer for Pythagerous.
> The main problem is that it does not seem enough toxic debt has been bought to account and when the next big fish drops or needs govt assistance market sentiment will change, surely not everyone insured with AIG.




Interestingly the S&P500 is down almost the exact same amount as the Dow at the same point in the Great Depression bear market. Of course that doesn't mean it will play out the same way as it did in 1932-33 but odds are that there is a few bear market rallies left in this one yet. 

Investors are still paying close to an historic average multiple for stocks as opposed to other severe economic downturns when multiples were half what they are now, re-1982-3, 1974-5, 1930's. 

If Giethner can spin this public private partnership right and mtm rules are relaxed, I could see this rally lasting through till mid April when 1Q09 earnings start coming in and everyone realizes they are dismal and there is no recovery in sight.


----------



## nizar (23 March 2009)

> UBS: Hedge Funds Back To Buying Stock
> March 20, 2009
> It’s been a long time coming, but hedge funds are betting on stocks once more.
> 
> ...




http://www.finalternatives.com/node/7317


----------



## pj2105 (23 March 2009)

Great graph dhukka.  It shows that we have a long way to go before we bottom out.


----------



## MACCA350 (23 March 2009)

pj2105 said:


> Great graph dhukka.  It shows that we have a long way to go before we bottom out.



Not sure you could call that based on the graph. If you compare the percentage decline, there has only ever been one worse than the one we are in now. And so far we've bottomed about 10% worse than all but that one. 

cheers


----------



## So_Cynical (23 March 2009)

pj2105 said:


> Great graph dhukka.  It shows that we have a long way to go before we bottom out.




How so...its a chart of what has happened...not whats going to happen.


----------



## Bobby (24 March 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> How so...its a chart of what has happened...not whats going to happen.




Well your correct on that statement at this time ,  But we may yet face the financial apocalypse


----------



## Glen48 (24 March 2009)

How much will this cost the World?
http://www.hyd-masti.com/2009/03/unsold-cars-from-around-world-nissan.html


----------



## Aussiejeff (24 March 2009)

Glen48 said:


> How much will this cost the World?
> http://www.hyd-masti.com/2009/03/unsold-cars-from-around-world-nissan.html




Nothing.

They are toxic assets - so BO will buy them all with unlimited Treasury Bills, crush 'em, and in partnership with his Indian mates recycle them into Tatamobiles.

All it takes to solve this mess is plenty of smiles and promises.

Trust me.

It's really that simple.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (24 March 2009)

Glen48 said:


> How much will this cost the World?
> http://www.hyd-masti.com/2009/03/unsold-cars-from-around-world-nissan.html




I wonder how many months at current sales rate it will take to clear current stockpile of cars,


----------



## Uncle Festivus (24 March 2009)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I wonder how many months at current sales rate it will take to clear current stockpile of cars,




Buy a car, get a house for free!


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Buy a car, get a house for free!




You funnny.


----------



## alphaman (24 March 2009)

I have no doubt that the economy will take years to recover, and printing money will only serve to prolong the pains in the long term, but this picture merely shows a lot of cars. It doesn't really prove anything.


----------



## Glen48 (24 March 2009)

It proves a lot of super money etc. has gone in to a black hole, Toyota are renting a ship to store cars. Think of the logistics looking after all those cars now there is talk of giving OZ suckers 3K to buy a new car and 0% I R.
As to the DCB I know in the 30 crash there were some wild gyrations and if we are lucky may get a few good trades as it goes down to new lows.


----------



## Trevor_S (24 March 2009)

http://business.smh.com.au/business/markets/next-bull-rally-has-begun-mobius-20090324-981r.html



> Templeton Asset Management's Mark Mobius says *the next bull-market rally in developing-nation equities has begun *as stocks surged from Shanghai to Sao Paulo on the US Treasury's plan to revive the banking system.



...


> The 72-year old investor, voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group




Me, I am not so sure but then I don't have Mobius's acumen.


----------



## MR. (24 March 2009)

Glen48 said:


> How much will this cost the World?
> http://www.hyd-masti.com/2009/03/unsold-cars-from-around-world-nissan.html




Hmmm

Now I'm wanting to buy a car.....  
Do you have any yellow ones? Toyota?






I don't care about how in-efficient the cars are Ford can you sell me or not a yellow car?





Bloody hell just want to buy a yellow car Nissan!





No I don't want to buy a bloody white car!





Yes ... yes yes I don't care who the maker is. I've found a yellow car..
Now That one on the bottom left....... Yes.........

What ......... you're not getting it out for me?




No wonder they're not selling cars......

.


----------



## Windza (25 March 2009)

LOL - yellow... phttttt!

Seriously though - what am I looking at?  OH - a few cars in open storage...  and not exactly THAT many in the relative sense.

Nup - I just don't get it, unless... oh no...  don't say it... the yards are 'reaching full capacity'!!!

Please!  No one is denying the outlook isn't great - but these pictures are drivel...  there's no dates to verify anything and it seems to me like someones pathetic attempt at scaremongering.

I could've gone to the government auction yard 3 years ago and drummed up  something similar I'm sure...

At least provide some dates and comparison pics... all I see is open storage areas doing what they're designed to do - store things...


----------



## ojm (25 March 2009)

Driving to Geelong, from the Rign Road / West Gate you pass the car storage on the left hand of the Freeway. At the end of last year / start of this year, it was packed with unsold cars. But I know with Holden, the big sales cleared lots of the stock out. Most of the Japanese car manufacturers refuse to discount, and look what happens.


----------



## ojm (25 March 2009)

Glen48 said:


> Toyota are renting a ship to store cars.




I reckon this is going to be a big insurance scam for Toyota. Put lots of cars on the ship. Fully insured. And the ship sinks. Don't have to sell those cars anymore.


----------



## UPKA (25 March 2009)

ojm said:


> Most of the Japanese car manufacturers refuse to discount, and look what happens.



with the current strength of the AUD, we r lucky not to see a price increase... Manufacturers will unlikely to sell them off at a huge discount unless new models r rolling off the production line. So all they need to do is halt production and get rid of the stocks in hand 



ojm said:


> I reckon this is going to be a big insurance scam for Toyota. Put lots of cars on the ship. Fully insured. And the ship sinks. Don't have to sell those cars anymore.



yes, if they decided to dock their tankers off the North Sea or Bass Strait


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 March 2009)

... back to the topic for a mo...

Did I just hear a *thump* and *me-e-o-o-w$%&^#*?


----------



## Sean K (25 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> ... back to the topic for a mo...
> 
> Did I just hear a *thump* and *me-e-o-o-w$%&^#*?



If it has finished, did you make the most of the bounce jeff? And are you now going to make the most of the drop? Would love to see what you're trading through this.


----------



## Aussiejeff (25 March 2009)

kennas said:


> If it has finished, did you make the most of the bounce jeff? And are you now going to make the most of the drop? Would love to see what you're trading through this.




Hi kennas.

I was actually ready to invest some spare loot into CBA yesterday at open but had a mind to *paws* a little while and see which direction the market was going to take post open. 

I'm happy I held off and shorting ain't my game, so it's back to the tiddly-winks for now.

Good luck, 


aj


----------



## Beej (25 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Hi kennas.
> 
> I was actually ready to invest some spare loot into CBA yesterday at open but had a mind to *paws* a little while and see which direction the market was going to take post open.
> 
> ...




So did you buy any CBA back in Jan @ $24?? What about 2 weeks ago @ $26? The retail rights issue they did looks pretty good atm if you took that up as well! Any of those 3 would have given you a 30%+ profit through this last (current?) rally.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## insider (25 March 2009)

MR. said:


> Hmmm
> 
> Now I'm wanting to buy a car.....
> Do you have any yellow ones? Toyota?
> ...




They will just sell this old stock with some new mods just to call it the 2010 model.... While they AXE jobs... The new Ford KA will now come with a crappy pinstripe....


----------



## Bill M (25 March 2009)

Beej said:


> So did you buy any CBA back in Jan @ $24?? What about 2 weeks ago @ $26? The retail rights issue they did looks pretty good atm if you took that up as well! Any of those 3 would have given you a 30%+ profit through this last (current?) rally.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej



Anybody who didn't take up the retail issue for $26 would have to have rocks in their head. The share price was trading at around $28 the day before the payment was due, easy $2 profit. As it turns out it is now a $9 profit. Even if you didn't have the money you could have sold what you had for $28 to $29 and picked up the issue at $26, a simple transaction.


----------



## nomore4s (25 March 2009)

Bill M said:


> Anybody who didn't take up the retail issue for $26 would have to have rocks in their head. The share price was trading at around $28 the day before the payment was due, easy $2 profit. As it turns out it is now a $9 profit. Even if you didn't have the money you could have sold what you had for $28 to $29 and picked up the issue at $26, a simple transaction.




Too true Bill, but fear stops most people from buying at the lows.


----------



## roofa (25 March 2009)

Bill M said:


> Anybody who didn't take up the retail issue for $26 would have to have rocks in their head. The share price was trading at around $28 the day before the payment was due, easy $2 profit. As it turns out it is now a $9 profit. Even if you didn't have the money you could have sold what you had for $28 to $29 and picked up the issue at $26, a simple transaction.




I didn't take it up Bill, but that's because I wanted more than 384 shares on offer for $10,000. So I bought on market in Jan for around the $26. Just got the interim dividend cheque in the mail today for $1.13 per share.


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## Bill M (25 March 2009)

roofa said:


> I didn't take it up Bill, but that's because I wanted more than 384 shares on offer for $10,000. So I bought on market in Jan for around the $26. Just got the interim dividend cheque in the mail today for $1.13 per share.




Well done and you got the divi too.


----------



## korrupt_1 (26 March 2009)

Glen48 said:


> How much will this cost the World?
> http://www.hyd-masti.com/2009/03/unsold-cars-from-around-world-nissan.html




that's a nice link Glen48...

Here's one of the car import/export yard in Adelaide off Google Earth...

GPS co-ord:
Long: 34 °46'36.57"S
Lat: 138 °29'2.44"E


----------



## gfresh (26 March 2009)

So what's the verdict? Stocks such as WBC have risen for 14 straight days.

If this is the end of the bear market, it all seems a little too easy, therefore I don't believe it is sustainable for much longer. 

Surely a bit of a pullback (say to 3300) would be expected very soon, even if this rally proves to be longer lasting.


----------



## MR. (26 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> So what's the verdict?




No doubt many markets get the lead from the US.  Volumes on the All Ords have been dropping the last few days but the climb continues.

So many countries get the lead from the US which also seems to be in worse shape than the rest. Has anyone else thought the shares there are being manipulated?  Ie: sudden short bursts pushing the price of stocks up! Another example last night.  Would it be out of the question?  Perhaps with intentions to recoup some money or just to stabilize the markets?  "why not"  Everything else is being tried!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

I know, it's another conspiracy, but if there was ever a reason, wouldn't now be a good time?  

thoughts?


----------



## alphaman (26 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> Surely a bit of a pullback (say to 3300) would be expected very soon, even if this rally proves to be longer lasting.



The rally will end, but it could last longer than you think. XJO hasn't even gone near 38% retracement yet. Not saying prce has to retrace 38%, but we haven't really had any decent sized correction yet.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

MR. said:


> thoughts?



While the bulls panicked and sold through fear on the way down, bears are doing the same thing now: Ditching shorts, and standing aside while the risky cash come back in to the market and starts chasing the potential short term gains. Was a no brainer really. Those who have stood on the side with their hands behind their backs should take this as a lesson for the next time. And a special mention for the economists: This is the stock market! Not the economy! The stock market does not run on current economics, but future perception of economics! If the bottom is 12 month away, then we may have already seen a bottom in the market!!! 



Having said that, the market will now see some incredibly bad news on the horizon and start pricing it in ...

Lower lows anyone?

lol


----------



## Pythagerous (26 March 2009)

After what we have seen over the last couple of weeks, what is everyone's consensus. *Recovery* or *Rally*?

I will stick with my call from 13th of March, to say that this is the *recovery*.


----------



## mitch87 (26 March 2009)

i agree kennans, the stock market derives its current position on future values and perceptions, however, our recent rally here in OZ and in the USA was mostly kicked off right after the big news that the us gov was going ahead and buying up the bad debts from the banks...$1 trillion worthi think the figure was, this is what spurred the recent rally, therefore, not always does the stock market price in everything before it happens, i hope i am wrong, but i have a feeling we have not seen the bottom.With a further contraction to be announced soon for US GDP of around 6%, adding to the 4q08 6.6% decline and i think 2% in 3q08, totalling 14.8% so far, previous large recessions and depressions were higher than this, and with forecasts of a further 5-7% contraction of GDP in the us in 2q09, i just dont think the stock market has priced this in. this recession is huge, it will take the better part of 2009 to really get through this bad debt stuff from the banks, i believe closer to 1q10 we will see news that the gov is finally getting to the bottom of all that, and THIS is when we will see the economy start to recover.SO, the market will price this further contraction in, maybe bottom around june/july/august and start the period of consolidation from here on in, and as we see economic turnaround by 2q10, the stock market will have already stabalised and began the next bull market rally......................thoughts?? Not so sure about the XAO, although it is fairing better than most, exports are still in heavy decline,and once the extent to this is realised soonish, by an official recession and more dire forecasting of our exporting for the remainder of 09, the market will adjust accordingly and maybe fall to around 2,800 or so.....its still going to be tough for aussie exports until the us picks up again


----------



## Wysiwyg (26 March 2009)

mitch87 said:


> i agree kennans, the stock market derives its current position on future values and perceptions, however, *our recent rally here in OZ and in the USA was mostly kicked off **right after the big news that the us gov was going ahead and buying up the bad debts from the **banks...$1 trillion worthi *think the figure was, this is what spurred the recent rally,




And all longs from the previous low were shaken out beforehand.That`s what I dislike about the game.It is so orchestrated.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> And all longs from the previous low were shaken out beforehand.That`s what I dislike about the game.It is so orchestrated.



We all need to stop being pawns in this game and start seeing the market more clearly.

Stop thinking short term economics and start thinking about the future. The future! That's what the stock market does. 

Pick stocks undervalued in a sector that will go up.

Trade charts that have hit bottoms (or tops) and are breaking up (or down). 

Trade charts that are trending up (or down).

We may have seen a bottom (or not) but trade the market! Not the current economics! I see threads here now about cars sitting in grave yards and think wow! what an opportunity!  I see the price of houses going pear shape and think wow! what an opportunity. 

For those who have been prepared for this event and have some cash I think - wow! what an opportunity!!

(not to say the worst is in, or course, but wow! if it goes lower, what an opportunity!!)


----------



## cutz (26 March 2009)

That’s good and well to say Kennas but in reality there is a small section of the trading community that has a requirement for the majority to be trading the current news.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

cutz said:


> That’s good and well to say Kennas but in reality there is a small section of the trading community that has a requirement for the majority to be trading the current news.



Yes, there is. But we don't want ASF members to be coping it from the small section do we?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (26 March 2009)

If you had access to unlimited money ie The Fed, wouldn't you be 'tickling' the market at the most opportune times, like this morning's finish? They only have to get past some technically important levels for the tech heads to jump in again and to become self perpetuating until the next set of sobering data eg unemployment. Then again, during the bull, most if not all negative data was comprehensively discarded whilst blinded by the herd mentality & greed.

You could take it as a sure bet that the equity market will be artificially supported by the 'firm' at least in the short term despite the fundamentals? Just don't know how long they can do it before they get found out, like everything else?


----------



## nomore4s (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> For those who have been prepared for this event and have some cash I think - wow! what an opportunity!!




I agree Kennas.

I see alot of posts on this site now about how the fundamentals suck etc, etc but I'm not seeing a lot of posts from these same posters about how they will make the most of this opportunity. Most it would seem are blinded by fear. Lately the bears remind me of the bulls at the top of the bull market raving about how it will never end etc etc.
Must of the fundamentals the bears are banging on about are now well known and understood by the markets - there are still down side risks but the problems regarding the GFC are known and to an extent understood.
The other thing is the economy (especially Aust) needs to catch up to these ultra bearish views, we are yet to see anything even close to these views play out, so far this is nothing like a depression and imo until we start seeing the signs of this extreme view in the real economy we may have seen some sort of a bottom.

Look at BHP, CBA, WBC all these blue chips and others are now about 40-50% off their bottoms. There is a very real chance these stocks will not revist these lows and may trade sideways above the lows now.

Opportunities like this come around very rarely, by preparing now and managing your risks it could be life changing imo. Trade what is presented to you by the market and don't let your bias (either way) cloud your judgment as in a few years you could be kicking yourself for missing an opportunity of a lifetime.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

Here is just one chart for you economic bears proclaiming armageddon at every chance and who have scared off some punters from making the most of the terribly oversold state of the market.

This is but one simple example of the opportunties that have unfolded.

I'm not saying we have seen a bottom, in the slightest, but I'm saying:

TRADE THE STOCK MARKET, NOT THE ECONOMY!


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Opportunities like this come around very rarely, by preparing now and managing your risks it could be life changing imo. Trade what is presented to you by the market and don't let your bias (either way) cloud your judgment as in a few years you could be kicking yourself for missing an opportunity of a lifetime.



 My concern is that I've missed the bulk of the bounce, even though I've thown a lot at the bounce as it is. I'm hoping EW is right and that there's a retracement at some near point to make the most of!


----------



## gfresh (26 March 2009)

lol.. go attack dog Kennas  

Can't say I'm hating this , but a little surprised at the ferocity. 

I would agree that (our) banks may have made a bottom, unless there is some further catastrophe further on down the track.


----------



## aleckara (26 March 2009)

The market has rallied too cleanly for me to be easy about it being a recovery.

In the background people are picking a recovery into some date but no one gives reasons why the current trends will stop and a recovery will come to pass. They just say "by 2010" for example.

Personally I think the future is unknown at this stage. I did miss out on the rally yes, but just as it started I could of jumped in and it could of fallen just as it ran out of steam.

Will the rally continue from here? How much longer? I don't think anyone really knows. Just when everyone is confident of a recovery is when some more bad news will come and cause more selling.

Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but every time I've heard that this may be a recovery something that seemed common sense but was ignored comes about. People question their own judgement on WHY when the market is rallying - they assume they must be wrong about the economy and other factors. And when they lose all their money they put in as a result of their lack of conviction they think "I should have picked that - the signs were there". It happens too often. I don't see any different factors or anything happening to get people to lend over the horizon. Australia has more to feel from this in my opinion, and I don't think the US plan will get banks to lend when the economy is going down the toilet. A few more businesses need to go bust (e.g GM maybe) before this is over - even if we have bottomed these companies can't survive too long while we are at a bottom. There are companies out there holding onto the edge off a cliff thinking that if I just hold on a little longer someone or the economy will rescue me. If they lose their grip then the bottom will be lower than now.


----------



## roofa (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> We may have seen a bottom (or not) but trade the market! Not the current economics! I see threads here now about cars sitting in grave yards and think wow! what an opportunity!  I see the price of houses going pear shape and think wow! what an opportunity.
> 
> For those who have been prepared for this event and have some cash I think - wow! what an opportunity!!
> 
> (not to say the worst is in, or course, but wow! if it goes lower, what an opportunity!!)




Spot on Kennas, I have viewed this as a once in my lifetime opportunity to upgrade a couple of cars in the last few months along with building a portfolio sprinkled with a few blue chips.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> lol.. go attack dog Kennas
> 
> Can't say I'm hating this , but a little surprised at the ferocity.
> 
> I would agree that (our) banks may have made a bottom, unless there is some further catastrophe further on down the track.



Yes, I have totally underestimated this, and I'm much poorer for it. 

I was waiting for 27-2800 to put my grandmas kidneys on the line, and it hasn't eventuated. Sad! 

But, it still seems like a chance. So, I'm kicking back here, in Lima, with my grandmas kidneys, waiting to put them on black!

Grandma isn't so keen on my plan!

Still a chance that the worst isn't factored in though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 March 2009)

aleckara said:


> Personally I think the future is unknown at this stage. I did miss out on the rally yes, but just as it started I could of jumped in and it could of fallen just as it ran out of steam.
> 
> Will the rally continue from here? How much longer? I don't think anyone really knows. Just when everyone is confident of a recovery is when some more bad news will come and cause more selling.
> 
> .




Well I think the future is always unknown.

Alot of people miss opportunities because they are scared to lose,

 Would Tiger woods have ever made it to the top of the golfing circuit if he was crippled with the fear of losing a ball every time he tee'd off.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> But, it still seems like a chance. So, I'm kicking back here, in Lima, with my grandmas kidneys, waiting to put them on black!
> 
> Grandma isn't so keen on my plan!
> 
> Still a chance that the worst isn't factored in though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Have you got any nephews or neices,... grandma's might be a bit worn out.


----------



## korrupt_1 (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> TRADE THE STOCK MARKET, NOT THE ECONOMY!




+1 to that comment...

I've given up trading 'news and event's... block your ears and disregard everything you read... just trade what you see.

FWIW... this rally is just '_bullsh!t in a bear marke_t'... i wouldn't go out on the limb to say that we're heading back to record highs yet... I will wait for that confirmation... a higher high or lower low before committing serrious money back into the markets.


----------



## Grinder (26 March 2009)

korrupt_1 said:


> +1 to that comment...
> 
> I've given up trading 'news and event's... block your ears and disregard everything you read... just trade what you see.
> 
> FWIW... this rally is just '_bullsh!t in a bear marke_t'... i wouldn't go out on the limb to say that we're heading back to record highs yet... I will wait for that confirmation... a higher high or lower low before committing serrious money back into the markets.




Yep, does'nt make a whole lotta sense but then I can't remmeber when the markets ever did. Bear market rally till proven otherwise and in the meantime just trading what I see & being prepared for a pullback... as there always is.


----------



## derty (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Yes, I have totally underestimated this, and I'm much poorer for it.



I'm in the same boat here - didn't expect it to be very long lived with all the bad sentiment out there. Then once it did get some legs I figured it would have a downward correction any day and I still have that feeling. So for this rally I think I am consigned to be sitting on my hands and wait for a pull back or a larger correction.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2009)

derty said:


> I'm in the same boat here - didn't expect it to be very long lived with all the bad sentiment out there. Then once it did get some legs I figured it would have a downward correction any day and I still have that feeling. So for this rally I think I am consigned to be sitting on my hands and wait for a pull back or a larger correction.



For those that did buy in close to the lows, the question now is when to take profits! Is this a 20% rally, or a 50% rally? or ?????????????????????????

Then?????????????????????

Economic bears are pointing to some pretty bad news, but just where we go is the question..


----------



## MR. (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Was a no brainer really. Those who have stood on the side with their hands behind their backs should take this as a lesson for the next time. And a special mention for the economists: This is the stock market! Not the economy! The stock market does not run on current economics, but future perception of economics!
> 
> Lower lows anyone?
> 
> lol







gfresh said:


> lol.. go attack dog Kennas




Kennas, are you blaming "others" for your mistake for not jumping on earlier? 

As for the lesson you quoted above,  Should then assume what,  exactly?  
The history of rebounds on the charts perhaps?  No brainer? Yes, punters will be punters. 



> The stock market does not run on current economics, but future perception of economics!



Isn't it funny how the future perception of economics changes the markets just as those historical lows (% of fall) are reached once again?  

I'll make my own lessons.



Uncle Festivus said:


> If you had access to unlimited money ie The Fed, wouldn't you be 'tickling' the market at the most opportune times, like this morning's finish? They only have to get past some technically important levels for the tech heads to jump in again and to become self perpetuating until the next set of sobering data eg unemployment. Then again, during the bull, most if not all negative data was comprehensively discarded whilst blinded by the herd mentality & greed.
> 
> You could take it as a sure bet that the equity market will be artificially supported by the 'firm' at least in the short term despite the fundamentals? Just don't know how long they can do it before they get found out, like everything else?




I hate being pessimistic and I arn't just tring to justify the recent rise with  conspiracies from banks, trusts, "the firm" or whom ever. Just a thought. But the US is out performing almost all other countries. Isn't the US in the most strife? 
and perhaps I appear not alone.


----------



## Dowdy (26 March 2009)

i love all this mass hysteria now to get back in the market, since i'm learning about behavioural finance 

Most people forget that the biggest rallies, percentage wise occurred during the great depression.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 March 2009)

Dowdy said:


> i love all this mass hysteria now to get back in the market, since i'm learning about behavioural finance
> 
> Most people forget that the biggest rallies, percentage wise occurred during the great depression.




is a great believer in history 

trading , riding , enjoying the hype actually BUT....... we aint hit the bottom overall yet 

only my opinion dont care what anyone elses is


----------



## Glen48 (26 March 2009)

IF Mr. Market is going to fall down when can we expect a wobble or some sign?
I predict with in 4 weeks...


----------



## Uncle Festivus (26 March 2009)

Glen48 said:


> IF Mr. Market is going to fall down when can we expect a wobble or some sign?
> I predict with in 4 weeks...




4th qtr US GDP out tonight, but if that don't budgit then..NFP

Tuesday 3 April?

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-EconomicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel


----------



## sammy84 (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> My concern is that I've missed the bulk of the bounce, even though I've thown a lot at the bounce as it is. I'm hoping EW is right and that there's a retracement at some near point to make the most of!




It's an attitude like that, if shared by many, which helps to create a bottom


----------



## MrBurns (26 March 2009)

I'm not interested in trying to pick the bottom, I'll buy shares when I feel fairly sure all the crap has washed out and the *markets have been repaired* so companies can deliver dividends I can rely on and reasonable growth.

I can't see that yet, what I do see if a lot of optimism pumped into the market based on very little my opinion.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I'm not interested in trying to pick the bottom, I'll buy shares when I feel fairly sure all the crap has washed out and the *markets have been repaired* so companies can deliver dividends I can rely on and reasonable growth.
> 
> I can't see that yet, what I do see if a lot of optimism pumped into the market based on very little my opinion.




Agree mate, there are no signs on any chart I've seen that a trading range is about to commence. 

Markets don't just shoot back up after a severe downtrend such as this.

gg


----------



## MrBurns (26 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree mate, there are no signs on any chart I've seen that a trading range is about to commence.
> 
> Markets don't just shoot back up after a severe downtrend such as this.
> 
> gg




Saw where someone wrote that rallies such as this suck the remaining cash out of the market before the real downturn, who knows ? but it sounds credible.


----------



## wonderrman (26 March 2009)

I've said it many times before but the long-term situation in the United States looks to be dissasterous. Who knows how long it will take for the mess of a country to fall over on it's waste side, charts that we love can't tel you that. One would probably think a few years. The burst of optimisim around the world is truely amazing, when really nothing has changed.

That doesn't stop you trading the markets though. There is always something out there to look at, and from a charting perspective, one should take each case as they come. CVN looks to be a perfect buy from a charting stand point.

The point is, yes the world is in the ****, but it doesn't mean that there are no opporunities out there. 

The question regarding bottom or dcb is still being asked. Personally I think we will experience quite a long bear market, where 30,40,50% rallies can be expected. The problem of debt overload cannot be fixed over night, the world has to deleverage itself to normal levels, this could take years, and that is when we might see the bottom. 

From a 'fundamental' perspective, I would not be buying now for the 'long-term' unless you were going to lock away the key for 10 yrs.


----------



## mitch87 (26 March 2009)

this is make or break for the us markets tonight and friday

if the economic data is bad, and the dow falls 2,3,4%, GOD help us all
if it can sustain current levels and break the 7850 mark, we may be in for some more upside before it gets worse


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## nomore4s (26 March 2009)

Can the bears please tell me when they finally decide to buy in, so I can sell out as that will be just about the top of this rally:

Anyway it's clear the bottom is in - YT is back in the market:
(This is a joke - I'm not calling a bottom)


----------



## nomore4s (27 March 2009)

From a charting perspective we're approaching some resistance at around 3700, will be interesting to see what happens in the next few trading days. A break through 3700 could bring 4300-4500 into play. A rejection of 3700 and failed support at 3500 could see us retest the lows.
I think we will see some consolidation under 3700 and then hopefully a break higher. 

Also look at the volume and the effect it has had especially the really big vol, doesn't appear to be many sellers left atm.


----------



## Whiskers (27 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Markets don't just shoot back up after a severe downtrend such as this.
> 
> gg




Just curious as to your reason, why not, gg?

Since the market is more about confidence than values, Obama's talk of and apparently starting to take some real action on better regulating the markets including some that were previously lightly regulated noteably the insurance industry, I can imagine quite a reasonable recovery if you believe that the correction was overdone on a complete loss of confidence.

For me the market could have stabalised last year if Bush had carried through on his litle burst of rhetoric to tighten up regulation of the markets, to restore confidence... but as we now know he waffled and blundered through most things he touched and the markets went with his populatity.


----------



## derty (27 March 2009)

Whiskers said:


> For me the market could have stabalised last year if Bush had carried through on his litle burst of rhetoric to tighten up regulation of the markets, to restore confidence...



Can you please explain this to me Whiskers? 

My understanding is that by last year the crash was well and truly set in motion. I cannot see how tightening regulations last year would have averted any of the carnage we have seen, particularly in the last 6 months. It would be akin to tightening the screws on your chook house door after the fox had already slaughtered all your chooks.


----------



## nunthewiser (27 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> 4th qtr US GDP out tonight, but if that don't budgit then..NFP
> 
> Tuesday 3 April?
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-EconomicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel




lol heres an ozzie headline 



> US 4th quarter GDP drops 6.3%
> The US economy contracted at a hefty 6.3 per cent pace in the fourth quarter




heres a yahoo one



> Oil rises in Asia on positive US data, stocks- AP




then this one from yahoo after 



> Economy Dips at Slightly Faster 6.3 Percent Pace, Better than Expected- AP
> The economy shrank at a 6.3 percent pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, and probably isn't doing much better now





 gotta love em


----------



## Whiskers (27 March 2009)

derty said:


> Can you please explain this to me Whiskers?
> 
> My understanding is that by last year the crash was well and truly set in motion. I cannot see how tightening regulations last year would have averted any of the carnage we have seen, particularly in the last 6 months. It would be akin to tightening the screws on your chook house door after the fox had already slaughtered all your chooks.




Yes it was well in motion, but from what I've read helped along by the mark to market issue with their accounting standards. 

I understand there has been some strong views that the insistency to mark to market all assets made no distinction between short and long term assets. The case basically went along the lines that the mark to market accounting rule took no account of cyclical swings in the markets nor treat longer term  non-current assets differently to current assets. 

Recently there has been some interest in the congress to ammend their accounting standards to recognise and or treat the different classes of assets differently.

Their arguement is that the compulsion to mark to market as it currently stands valued everything on the books at fire-sale values and exponentionally compounded the devaluation of the assets and market.

PS: I suppose I meant tighten and rationalise their regulations. There seems to have been a very long time of not reviewing standards, regulations or anything much to account for the changing dynamics of the world economy and markets.


----------



## dhukka (27 March 2009)

Whiskers said:


> Yes it was well in motion, but from what I've read helped along by the mark to market issue with their accounting standards.
> 
> I understand there has been some strong views that the insistency to mark to market all assets made no distinction between short and long term assets. The case basically went along the lines that the mark to market accounting rule took no account of cyclical swings in the markets nor treat longer term  non-current assets differently to current assets.
> 
> ...




Jaysus Whiskers, you've had months to invent excuses for your complete ineptitude and this is the best you could do? 

Mark to market is the latest scapegoat for incompetent and insolvent institutions to blame their reckless speculative investment decisions. The fact is more than 70% of bank assets are NOT subject to mark to market, a fact that seems to go unreported. To their credit, Goldman Sachs is actually against relaxing mark to market rules. 

Furthermore, mark to market is not required for securities held to maturity, but you need to demonstrate a "positive intent and ability" that you will do so. So there is a distinction between longer and shorter dated assets. 

The idea that the market could have avoided steep falls last year through stricter regulation is complete and utter nonsense, the seeds were sown years in advance.


----------



## Whiskers (27 March 2009)

Hi dhukka... long time no see! :

I thought I'd previously made my opinion of the excesses and abuses of the system by a relative few to the detrement of the masses, pretty clear.

The point I make here is that the cyclical correction that we had to have has probably been exaggerated by a few extra things such as those I've just briefly mentioned and that you kindly point out more of the difficulties with preventing assets from being fire-sale valued.


----------



## MRC & Co (27 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> From a charting perspective we're approaching some resistance at around 3700, will be interesting to see what happens in the next few trading days. A break through 3700 could bring 4300-4500 into play.




Or a break of 3700 to the 3800s could get all the breakout players in, before they sell us off again.  More likely in this environment I would think.


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 March 2009)

OK.

Fess up.

Who killed the gay bouncing kitty last night? :angry:


----------



## MrBurns (28 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> OK.
> 
> Fess up.
> 
> Who killed the gay bouncing kitty last night? :angry:




Me when I decided to buy BSL late yesterday.

I can now spend all day Monday watching it shrink.


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Me when I decided to buy BSL late yesterday.
> 
> I can now spend all day Monday watching it shrink.




Oh.

Poor shriveling Puddy-tat..


----------



## MrBurns (28 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Oh.
> 
> Poor shriveling Puddy-tat..




As Buffet always said , when Burns is buying it's time to get out !


----------



## Glen48 (28 March 2009)

Thanks Mr B can you let us know when you are buying again?
Maybe a name change could help some thing like Rising Stocks, Never Burnt?


----------



## MR. (28 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Me when I decided to buy BSL late yesterday.
> 
> I can now spend all day Monday watching it shrink.




I remember 9 months ago the Eureka was pointing towards BSL.  I'm sure there is a better chance of an increase now.  

Is it predictable that bears such as yourself decide to buy now once the market has already just risen? Left behind? Maybe that just keeps that ball on rolling.  Never mind, forget my comments.  wishing you well.


----------



## arae (28 March 2009)

I'd say this is more of a bear hug. They're still some sharp claws wrapped around our backs.


----------



## MrBurns (28 March 2009)

I'm was just busting to buy something so I did.

Will get out soon I guess, no big deal.


----------



## baboon (28 March 2009)

Never try to pick bottoms, because all you get is smelly fingers!


----------



## wonderrman (28 March 2009)

That resistence of 3800 should be touched in the next few few days. Personally, I don't think we can push through it because this has been a pretty heavy push up in a short period of time, we need a rest.  I don't think this market can go from 3000 to 4500with out a leg down first. Those bulls need to catch their breath.

It will be interesting to see how we react though. If it's a massive drop (fig 1, straight down) on little volume, you would expect a new low. If it's a zig zag, base period (fig 2), you would think the market is preparing to push higher, probably to that 4500 level of resistence. That would give us a massive bear market rally!

I will try and get a chart soon, the one by the above poster is good though.







The tape is your mate. Wonder.


----------



## MRC & Co (29 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I'm was just busting to buy something so I did.




LOL.

Didn't notice that nice trendline nomore drew either, this bounce could end quicker than I thought, 3800s may have even been a little optimistic.


----------



## MrBurns (29 March 2009)

MR. said:


> I remember 9 months ago the Eureka was pointing towards BSL.  I'm sure there is a better chance of an increase now.
> 
> Is it predictable that bears such as yourself decide to buy now once the market has already just risen? Left behind? Maybe that just keeps that ball on rolling.  Never mind, forget my comments.  wishing you well.




I'm not a bear just realistic, I could just as well call the bulls reckless fools with no sense of risk.

BSL is at a real low point about now, it will go back up but not sure if I'll bother waiting, see how it goes, only bought 5000 of them so I'm not going to go broke or get rich either way.


----------



## psychic (29 March 2009)

Next leg down started Friday night in the U.S.  April will be a horrid month with reporting season kicking off and major companies with filthy losses being posted.

Ahh and then their is AIG, will she fail this month or next?  When she fails this will be spectacular (Dow Jones will drop over 1000 points in a session)

*Go short all of April and watch for the new lows*


----------



## Glen48 (29 March 2009)

Which way will the G20 drive the market?
 Word is the Dow could hit 10K and USD UP then I guess what the G20 decide to do will point us.. I predict the market up while G20 are meeting will be hell to play IF they could out with a new currency  as China is worried about their loot and  The Yanks could devalue the $ causing China to call USA a pack of BB's.
The market will go down but I think it will be a few more major hiccups before.
I may be right,I maybe be wrong, I maybe crazy...wait I think I have the words for a song...


----------



## Gordon Gekko (29 March 2009)

I agree Glen,

They have been planning this meeting for a long time and they are not about to come out with negitive news or big supises to scare the markets.
I think they will come out with some "change", "unitied", " never before in history crap remarks" But the public and the markets will eat it up and the dow will sore.
This market overshot to the downside and will overshot to the upside as well.

Those that try to talkdown the market at this stage (huge collapse coming) are doing there best to get in position as they have well and truly missed the boat.

Best

G


----------



## psychic (29 March 2009)

Many of the G20 nations are arking up and are in complete opposition to more bail-outs, flies in the face of what the US want, so I expect this G20 meeting to end with major nations fighting, disruptions and chaos.  History repeats itself and that is exactly what lead to the great depression.  Rudd has already sounded the warning signs, look out below


----------



## psychic (29 March 2009)

*Here is the G20 meeting dates*


Deputies Meeting 1st February 2009

Officials Workshop Financing for Climate Change 13th & 14th February 2009

Deputies Meeting 13th March 2009

Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting  14th March 2009

Officials Workshop on Global Economy  25th 26th May 2009

Officials Workshop on Sustainable Financing for Development June 2009

Deputies Meeting September 2009

Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting 7th & 8th November 2009


----------



## psychic (29 March 2009)

Markets don't go up 10% a week for 3 weeks (30% total gain) without a serious correction.  Come on guys get with the program, we all know that


----------



## wonderrman (29 March 2009)

psychic said:


> Markets don't go up 10% a week for 3 weeks (30% total gain) without a serious correction.  Come on guys get with the program, we all know that




I think that is what I just said in my previous post, number 221. I have no issue with the correction, it has to come. The reaction from the markets and resulting price action is what is important.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (29 March 2009)

psychic said:


> Markets don't go up 10% a week for 3 weeks (30% total gain) without a serious correction.  Come on guys get with the program, we all know that




But this time it's different


----------



## psychic (29 March 2009)

Whats different, the fundamentals are still the same. Bear market rallies, Rising rates on unemployment, IMF downgrading global growth even further, GDP results contacting, bank/auto/insurance bailouts still continuing, printing money from thin air, empty promisies etc etc.

May I remind you of this chart


----------



## Gordon Gekko (29 March 2009)

I was just taking the piss about it being differerent this time even though in alot of ways it is. Do you honestly think we will see unemployment at 25%?

I keep forgeting most on this board are speculators or"traders", I'm sure some do very well but there are allot who are learning "losing money"

Why try to pick the bottom? Can it go much lower than the previous low?, maybe but if your averaging in and have a long term horizon whats the big deal.

This period will just be another trend on a chart someone is looking at in the future. It will have a low/high etc.

Its a zero sum game, for every winner there is a loser.

Best of luck
G


----------



## CanOz (29 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Its a zero sum game, for every winner there is a loser.




Trading is a minus sum game, your forgetting about brokerage. Brokers are the only true winners.

CanOz


----------



## Gordon Gekko (29 March 2009)

CanOz said:


> Trading is a minus sum game, your forgetting about brokerage. Brokers are the only true winners.
> 
> CanOz




Very wise indeed!

I take it from the name you are Canadian?

GO FALMES GO

G


----------



## jet328 (29 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Do you honestly think we will see unemployment at 25%?




Why not?


If you count working one hour a week as being employed, people that have given up looking for work as not unemployed, contractors that are 'employed' but lost most of their work, salesman that are 'employed' yet lost their commissions, people that can only find part time work, birth/death models and rig the figures any way you can, yes we won't see 20%.

However its the real figure that will impact the economy and company profits/losses. Does anyone really believe the current unemployment numbers being dished out? The figures in the 30's were a much more accurate reflection....


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 March 2009)

psychic said:


> Whats different, the fundamentals are still the same. Bear market rallies, Rising rates on unemployment, IMF downgrading global growth even further, GDP results contacting, bank/auto/insurance bailouts still continuing, printing money from thin air, empty promisies etc etc.




I`m thinking that after 30th June, the Australian Taxation Department will be sending tax refunds to many people that have claimed capital losses this financial year.This will be a large drag on the government coffers.

On the other side of these capital loss claims will be more dollars in the claimants pocket as they reduce assessable income and receive a refund.Hence a spend up on the `bargains` (if still around).This could be the turning point if not already happened.

Just my Bob Santamaria.


----------



## Beej (29 March 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I`m thinking that after 30th June, the Australian Taxation Department will be sending tax refunds to many people that have claimed capital losses this financial year.This will be a large drag on the government coffers.
> 
> On the other side of these capital loss claims will be more dollars in the claimants pocket as they reduce assessable income and receive a refund.Hence a spend up on the `bargains` (if still around).This could be the turning point if not already happened.
> 
> Just my Bob Santamaria.




Hmmm - that is an interesting theory and personally I would like to see that be the case! However I don't think refunds are given for capital losses per se. You can only use capital losses to offset other capital gains, and if you made no capital gains in the same year as realising losses then you carry the loss forward into the future until eventually you do make a capital gain to offset the loss against. 

PS: As for this being recovery or dead cat bounce, I think the rally was rapid because the market was just so over-sold. It's now bounced back off that - but it will probably have some sort of a sell-off again soon. The indicator I will be watching is can we make a higher low this time around - if we do, then I think a bottom would start to look more likely.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Buster (29 March 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I`m thinking that after 30th June, the Australian Taxation Department will be sending tax refunds to many people that have claimed capital losses this financial year.This will be a large drag on the government coffers.
> 
> On the other side of these capital loss claims will be more dollars in the claimants pocket as they reduce assessable income and receive a refund.Hence a spend up on the `bargains` (if still around).This could be the turning point if not already happened.




I thought a capital loss claim was simply kept on the books in order to offset any capital gain in the future.. so no actual money sent out.. 

Not a tax expert, just what I'd heard somewhere previously..

Cheers,

Buster


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 March 2009)

Buster said:


> I thought a capital loss claim was simply kept on the books in order to offset any capital gain in the future.. so no actual money sent out..
> 
> Not a tax expert, just what I'd heard somewhere previously..
> 
> ...



Traders are considered carrying on a business.The rest will rollover yes.


----------



## wonderrman (29 March 2009)

> reduce assessable income and receive a refund




No you don't receive a refund if you register a loss on your income statement, the company is able to carry it over years to offset future profits, like other posters have said. The only time a company receives a refund, generally, from the tax office is when they have paid more GST then they have collected.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 March 2009)

wonderrman said:


> No you don't receive a refund if you register a loss on your income statement, the company is able to carry it over years to offset future profits, like other posters have said. The only time a company receives a refund, generally, from the tax office is when they have paid more GST then they have collected.




Yes I`m wrong. :crap: Net capital loss is rolled over/deferred and CANNOT be claimed against personal assessable income.

Apologies to all.


----------



## Nyden (29 March 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes I`m wrong. :crap: Net capital loss is rolled over/deferred and CANNOT be claimed against personal assessable income.
> 
> Apologies to all.




Unless one is trading under a business entity, I believe? As the income drawn from said entity would be just that, income - and not capital gains. I could be wrong though :


----------



## MR. (30 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I'm not a bear just realistic, I could just as well call the bulls reckless fools with no sense of risk.
> 
> BSL is at a real low point about now, it will go back up but not sure if I'll bother waiting, see how it goes, only bought 5000 of them so I'm not going to go broke or get rich either way.




Must say you don't deserve this on the first day.  

Will say had the same urge as well......... 

The majority of ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS are averaging a HOLD on BSL if that is a help. Data is on Commsec.  I am always wary of the "conflicts of interest."  

You watch ABC news?  Alan Kohler appears to me to think there is still further to fall. Also said on the news he believed it was a dead cat bounce. One of his comments I posted on your "I Predict" thread recently. 

The last email to me from Eureka was on the 27/3 and the last lines said:

_*With the latest US rescue plan raising expectation and confidence in the market I hope to see you with us during what should be a good April.

Best Wishes,

Alan Kohler*_

Appears for everyone to buy now only to sell again at months end?


----------



## MrBurns (30 March 2009)

MR. said:


> Must say you don't deserve this on the first day.
> 
> Will say had the same urge as well.........
> 
> ...




Only bought BSL as I am bored, now I'm still bored watching it go down the drain.

I subscribe to Eureka Report too and from what I've seen in all these newsletters over the past 12 months they dont seem to know a lot but SOUND very clever.

I still think there HAS to be a great fall somewhere along the line I just cant believe we will walk away from this without a lot of pain.


----------



## nomore4s (30 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I subscribe to Eureka Report too and from what I've seen in all these newsletters over the past 12 months they dont seem to know a lot but SOUND very clever.




lol, it's all about selling to subscribers.



> I still think there HAS to be a great fall somewhere along the line I just cant believe we will walk away from this without a lot of pain.




We haven't already had some serious pain?

For me I don't see anywhere near the doom & gloom the bears have so far predicted in the real world especially in Aust. All we have seen so far is a mild recession but the stock market has priced in something alot worse, something along the lines of what we have seen in the US, with banks under pressure, house prices getting smashed etc but we have not come close to this in Aust so far.

Not saying we won't see this happen here but atm our economy is actually holding up reasonably well, and until we do see some signs of further deterioration I think we will see some strength in the stock market.


----------



## Glen48 (30 March 2009)

Swan tells us we will come out of this better than ever...seems to me our rates are about the highest in the World.3.25% so every thing is strong but under that things are crook, top line cars are being sold an 15 per day up from 15 per week, some with out keys suggesting they have been towed away ( think how much it would cost to re key a Roller of Lexus??) RV's you can get 150K of a 700K model, a Brisbane boat yard had their boats  auction off, more bad news in mining so I reckon we are about to start a depression in a rush steal your self MR. B...wait you already have.
Dateline last night some white House  Yank claims Rudd is smarter than what we usually send over so I feel better  now.


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> For me I don't see anywhere near the doom & gloom the bears have so far predicted in the real world especially in Aust. All we have seen so far is a mild recession but the stock market has priced in something alot worse, something along the lines of what we have seen in the US, with banks under pressure, house prices getting smashed etc but we have not come close to this in Aust so far.
> 
> Not saying we won't see this happen here but atm our economy is actually holding up reasonably well, and until we do see some signs of further deterioration I think we will see some strength in the stock market.




Perhaps you should mull over psychic's insightful graph at post #232. That 2007-09 "thin blue line" tick-up looks like a classic dead-cat to me. See how it's tracking the '30's depression line pretty well? Then tell me you think there couldn't be *significant* further downside in the short to medium or even longer term? 

Wishing some *Extra* good luck to those of you still in the punt...


----------



## MrBurns (30 March 2009)

Whatever may happen I wish it would just get on with it, as things are we're stuffed, cant invest in anything, even money in the bank is a waste of time.


----------



## nomore4s (30 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Perhaps you should mull over psychic's insightful graph at post #232. That 2007-09 "thin blue line" tick-up looks like a classic dead-cat to me. See how it's tracking the '30's depression line pretty well? Then tell me you think there couldn't be *significant* further downside in the short to medium or even longer term?
> 
> Wishing some *Extra* good luck to those of you still in the punt...




That's the thing AJ, we haven't seen anything like the 30s depression yet. In fact alot of people have never been better off, low interest rates, government grants etc.

This may well be nothing more than a dead cat bounce - we have yet to even break the down trend as per the chart I posted earlier. And I also never said there couldn't be significant downside from here.
But I'm trading the market not what might or might not happen in the economy from here and I have been long since late Feb when I stopped getting any short signals, and it has been very profitable - I still haven't got many sell signals on my open trades and only have 1 short trade open and my risks are well under control for the moment.

Don't let your bearish bias blind you.


----------



## MrBurns (30 March 2009)

Speaking of Govt grants, Rudds popularity is at an all time high, funny how that coincides with cheques arriving in the mail. 

Expect more of that just before the election.


----------



## MR. (30 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Whatever may happen I wish it would just get on with it, as things are we're stuffed, cant invest in anything, even money in the bank is a waste of time.




Still think it's going to be drawn out. That is just how it is going to be.  Too many people still blowing the leverage trumpet hoping to make money out there.  The pain is really yet to come.... 

Nomore4's, I find myself still waiting waiting....... It's awlful. Perhaps my punishment for this tact will be "to be left behind." 

Perhaps need to go away I think for a while.


----------



## jonojpsg (30 March 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes I`m wrong. :crap: Net capital loss is rolled over/deferred and CANNOT be claimed against personal assessable income.
> 
> Apologies to all.




I know I'm propagating this off-thread discussion but in another thread, it was posted that the ATO is treating CFDs as assessable income.  I have rolled over most of my trading into CFDs rather than shares over the last year so will be claiming any net losses I have against my income.  That's just my position so BEWARE!!


----------



## korrupt_1 (30 March 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> I know I'm propagating this off-thread discussion but in another thread, it was posted that the ATO is treating CFDs as assessable income.  I have rolled over most of my trading into CFDs rather than shares over the last year so will be claiming any net losses I have against my income.  That's just my position so BEWARE!!




just to keep it OT...

My CFD gains/losses are accounted as taxable income. I guess for me, it's the 'repetition' parts that gets me... average anywhere between 1-10 round-trip trades/day...


----------



## korrupt_1 (2 April 2009)

what's the view now?

Recovery or Dead Cat?

I'll like to see what happens when it hits 3700-3800 range... if it puts in a higher high followed by a higher low, there's a chance that the lows would have been made...

from my analysis, 3800 looks to be stiff resistance and significant level to overcome.. if a higher high happens above that level... hmmm... is that light at the end of the tunnel i can see????


----------



## Beej (2 April 2009)

It's very interesting though that after breaking through the 3520 resistance that has now become a key point of support over the last couple of selling days..... This rally might have some legs in it yet I think?

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## nomore4s (2 April 2009)

The strength in the market today is amazing, I wonder if we will hold onto the gains though.


----------



## nomore4s (2 April 2009)

Beej said:


> It's very interesting though that after breaking through the 3520 resistance that has now become a key point of support over the last couple of selling days..... This rally might have some legs in it yet I think?




Yes Beej it is interesting that 3500 appears to be providing support now. Refer my post below - I would still like to see consoildation between 3500-3700 before a break higher as this would give us more of a chance of a sustainable rally towards that 4300-4500 area.



nomore4s said:


> From a charting perspective we're approaching some resistance at around 3700, will be interesting to see what happens in the next few trading days. A break through 3700 could bring 4300-4500 into play. A rejection of 3700 and failed support at 3500 could see us retest the lows.
> I think we will see some consolidation under 3700 and then hopefully a break higher.
> 
> Also look at the volume and the effect it has had especially the really big vol, doesn't appear to be many sellers left atm.


----------



## derty (2 April 2009)

Well this dead cat sure is bouncing quite well, must be all bloated with gas.  I hope no-one pokes it with a stick.

I'll be watching the 3750 level and if it holds above this I might stick a few toes in.


----------



## MrBurns (2 April 2009)

As soon as I get my money back from the latest Charlie Aitken dodgy tip, ie BSL I 'm out and staying out, only about a grand down at present from Friday.


----------



## nomore4s (2 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> As soon as I get my money back from the latest Charlie Aitken dodgy tip, ie BSL I 'm out and staying out, only about a grand down at present from Friday.




Can I ask what signs you will be looking for before re-entering the market?

History shows us the stock market tends to bottom out when least expected - while the economic news is still bad and things look like they cannot possibly get better. This is why picking bottoms is so difficult and so few people manage to get in on the ground floor.

Tech posted on another thread a while ago about there being so few people who can actually identify opportunity and then make the most of that opportunity when it is identified. These last few months have shown me why that is true.

Just because I have been buying for the last few months doesn't mean I have to hold if the market starts to seriously tank again. To me the risks of buying now are a lot less then buying 12 - 18 months ago.


----------



## MrBurns (2 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Can I ask what signs you will be looking for before re-entering the market?




I'm not a trader, it just seems like gambling to me.

I wont go back into the share market till I'm sure the companies I'm buying into are not going to go downhill and by that I dont count any company in that category at present, banks, miners, you name it there's a question mark over all of them.

I dont know shares but I do know property and I know that eventually it goes up depite bumps and problems over time, shares however do not always go up, the index might but some companies just disappear altogether with investors money so I'll stay out and go back into property once it settles in about 2 years.


----------



## tedwilliams (2 April 2009)

Mr Burns,
Trading on the stockmarket is not gambling. Gambling is standing at poker machine, the programs runs the odds for you-you lose.
Horse racing, always been rigged, always will be. Greyhounds-rigged sometimes, dogs get stichs from owners feeding water before a race.
Football, is rigged the amount of tanking that goes on. How can you make money, when you are up  against the odds at the start, plus they are rigged.
Casinos rigged in a way, table limits stop you from making enough money to pull out and go home, free drinks, no clocks, staff extra nice.

Stockmarket, media and company annoucements, why do not the stupid companies make the annoucements after trading, not when a stock is rising?

It seems to me, the world has to be rigged in a way, you take car makers, they will not make cars theft proof, because the insurance companies will not make any money from it. Same with stupid tumble locks, on houses, easy to pick. Same again-Insurance companies have to make people scared of losing their cars, houses burgarled.

I have lost money trading shares in the past, paying $33.00 a share trade, what a joke. Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars. Brokerage is 0.1 percent of trade.

Regards Ted


----------



## Green08 (2 April 2009)

roll of the dice betting against others greed


----------



## Aussiest (2 April 2009)

tedwilliams said:


> Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars.
> Regards Ted




And, what will you do when the difference between your entry price and the current price exceeds your margin and you are asked to top up your account?


----------



## MrBurns (2 April 2009)

Stock markets are manipulated and the companies you put your hard earned money into are in many cases dishonest or run by people who are prepared to be dishonest, if that's not a gamble I don't know what is.


----------



## Green08 (2 April 2009)

when I see this bouncing I can only think of the poor souls pouring their stimulus money in - following "experts advice" only to learn that without watching it - shazzam the next lot of bankrupt :sheep: hit the pavement


----------



## MrBurns (2 April 2009)

Ok I'm out  - Sold 5,000 BSL @ $2.70 for a loss of about $500 ...cest' la vie

SOOooooooooooo my advice is to buy BSL immediately because tomorrow they will go through the roof.

As Buffett always says when Burns is selling buy in a hurry...........


----------



## nomore4s (2 April 2009)

tedwilliams said:


> I have lost money trading shares in the past, paying $33.00 a share trade, what a joke. Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars. Brokerage is 0.1 percent of trade.




lol, what planet are you on. So trading CFDs with 80-90% leverage isn't gambling?


----------



## Beej (2 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> when I see this bouncing I can only think of the poor souls pouring their stimulus money in - following "experts advice" only to learn that without watching it - shazzam the next lot of bankrupt :sheep: hit the pavement




A bit alarmist perhaps??

How could anyone go bankrupt by investing money that they have just been given (ie bonus cash) in the share market? Unless they were using it with leverage, the absolute worse that could happen is they loose the stimulus/bonus money (if poor companies that go under are chosen) - but that would hardly send anyone bankrupt on it's own???

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## saiter (2 April 2009)

Well, the Dow Jones already hit 1997 levels at the start of this rally... Isn't that enough already? Didn't all this leveraging start after 2000?

Also, if the Dow Jones leads the rest, how come the XAO, FTSE and HSI only hit mid-2003 levels?


----------



## drsmith (2 April 2009)

I still think it's too early to be dancing in the street singing happy days are here again but at the same time who knows how far the current reversal will run.

With regard to the banks in particular it was 1992 before WBC and ANZ admitted to all their sins post the 1987 share market crash/subsequent recession.


----------



## Green08 (2 April 2009)

Supers heading south - big player in the medical area. Indication of others? 

Investment Option 1 July 2008 to 28 February 2009 ( p.a.) 

Ready-Made Investment Choice  
Core Pool  -15.7%  
Shares Plus   -21.9% 
Cash Plus  -7.9% 
Eco Pool  -16.2% 
Overseas Share Pool  -23.1% 
Australian Share Pool  -30.6% 

Desperate people do desperate things without always looking clearly first. Never understood the negative in Cash


----------



## Uncle Festivus (2 April 2009)

I've seen the term 'the market is forward looking' bandied about a few threads lately, usually in the context of why the markets are going up again. Markets are not forward looking at all, all they are is 'forward expecting while discounting current negatives'. You only have to look at the reaction to the latest data - 

*Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. on Wednesday posted March U.S. vehicle sales declines in excess of 40%*

*The U.S. labor market worsened again in March, as private-sector firms cut 742,000 jobs, signaling another terrible employment report on Friday*

*the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index came in at 36.3 for April - up from 35.8 - 0.5 points!*

A second half recovery? The Bull beckons you in one last time for the final capitulation to the real lows?

Playing the game but only to get set for some juicy shorts again, if they don't change the rules again!


----------



## MR. (2 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Ok I'm out  - Sold 5,000 BSL @ $2.70 for a loss of about $500 ...cest' la vie
> 
> SOOooooooooooo my advice is to buy BSL immediately because tomorrow they will go through the roof.




Thanks for the tip it's going to be a sure thingy now! just up 9%

It appears it's out of your system now, back to being bored ?  

Bought a particular share yesterday, yes, on that optimism.......  
I calculated a particular directors total cost of holdings over a 7 year period, the money he put in out of his pocket. You can get in today for his average cost. So I got in some. (and with other reasons in mind)

The share is down something like 80+% in 6 months and it still hasn't risen. Had invested in this company before so I knew alot about it. Spent half of yesterday and all day today ripping the more recent history apart.  Didn't like what I found.  Risk is just still too high even at this reduced price with the current economy in mind. Sold most today at a loss of $150- 

It's out my system now as well.

It's straight out gambling...... when debts in these companies are involved.


----------



## MR. (2 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Playing the game but only to get set for some juicy shorts




That is the only thing that continues to make sense to me, unfortunately. 

Will be glad when these feelings go!


----------



## Nero64 (2 April 2009)

> wont go back into the share market till I'm sure the companies I'm buying into are not going to go downhill and by that I dont count any company in that category at present, banks, miners, you name it there's a question mark over all of them.
> 
> I dont know shares




Mr Burns it appears you don't know shares stick to property  if you can't see any value on offer.

Do your research. I could name 10-15 companies strengthing in this down turn and reaping profits like never before. I admit everything was down in November because of redemptions and people selling at all costs. That was the time to buy not now and not in early March  Most people missed it. NHC for example. It was down to $2.50. This company has 2 Billion in cash and is trading 80% below its true market cap. 



> I have lost money trading shares in the past, paying $33.00 a share trade, what a joke. Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars. Brokerage is 0.1 percent of trade.
> 
> Regards Ted




Umm Ted. I would rather pay $33 per share transaction than pay $30-40 in buying and closing comissions, plus $4-5 in interest per over night holding plus what ever else they charge with CFD's.


----------



## So_Cynical (2 April 2009)

tedwilliams said:


> Mr Burns,
> Trading on the stockmarket is not gambling. Gambling is standing at poker machine, the programs runs the odds for you-you lose.
> Horse racing, always been rigged, always will be. Greyhounds-rigged sometimes, dogs get stichs from owners feeding water before a race.
> Football, is rigged the amount of tanking that goes on




So ted when u buy into XYZ u know its gona go up right?

Gambling is putting your money into something with an unpredictable 
outcome, but wait u have a system right or a strategy. :bs:

U gambling deniers amaze me.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (2 April 2009)

Hey Burns,

I got a hot one for you!

Its a Canadian gold company called Bre-X

Its going to the moon!!

G


----------



## MRC & Co (2 April 2009)

Looks like we have put in a HL.  Same as S&P. 

Still looking for a move to 3800s before I will turn bearish.

I used to think trading was not gambling, but it obviously is.  Of course, you can be an expert and beat the market, but you are never SURE and hence there is always an element of chance:  _to stake or risk money, or anything of value, on the outcome of something involving chance_


----------



## prana (2 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I dont know shares but I do know property and I know that eventually it goes up depite bumps and problems over time, shares however do not always go up, the index might but some companies just disappear altogether with investors money so I'll stay out and go back into property once it settles in about 2 years.



oh dear - speak to some Hongkies about the 90's crash and how it affected property and lives as a whole. Truth is, no investment is completely safe. At the end of the day, isn't it really risk management and preservation of wealth?


----------



## MrBurns (2 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Hey Burns,
> 
> I got a hot one for you!
> 
> ...




Gee thanks can I put loads of money in ?


----------



## Gordon Gekko (2 April 2009)

Bre-x went from .25 to 286$ before they discovered there was no gold! The man they were going to make pay conveniently fell out of a helicopter. Imagine having 20k on that one!!!

G


----------



## sammy84 (2 April 2009)

Trading is money management and skewing the odds in your favour by smart entries and exits, so whilst it displays elements of gambling, its outcome is inherently different. 
Whether this is a recovery or a dead cat bounce...who cares? Both can be extremely profitable, just trade the market.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (2 April 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Trading is money management and skewing the odds in your favour by smart entries and exits, so whilst it displays elements of gambling, its outcome is inherently different.
> Whether this is a recovery or a dead cat bounce...who cares? Both can be extremely profitable, just trade the market.




Why don't we just call trading what it is, speculating. And the more you do it the more money you are going to lose. 
I don't doubt that there are a small few who may make a couple lucky guesses but in the longer term do any of these people beat the index? Maybe short term but over 1, 3 or 5 years? As if. And I'm not talking Buffet or Sorro's, I'm talking the other 99.9999999% of the people out there. The people on the outside.

If anyone here can they would not be on this board they would be on there shiny boat with naked women or cabana boys drinking champs.

my

G


----------



## MS+Tradesim (3 April 2009)

Gordon G,

If you can't make money trading, that's one thing. But your opinion is uninformed. I make a living trading. I do it every day. There are probably a couple dozen more full time traders here. I've been making money for years doing it. And I'm probably not even in the league of guys like Radge, Frank D, TH and more.

The myth of drinking champs and living on a boat is just that...a myth. Trading is a business. And full-time traders will live the way any business people do.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 April 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Trading is money management and skewing the odds in your favour by smart entries and exits, so whilst it displays elements of gambling, its outcome is inherently different.




inherently no..the outcome is unpredictable therefore its gambling...there's more to gambling 
than mindlessly hitting a button on a pokie...same as there's more to share trading than buying 
and hoping....that's why i like the stock market.



sammy84 said:


> Whether this is a recovery or a dead cat bounce...who cares? Both can be extremely profitable, just trade the market.




Agreed..the markets having a run so go with it.


----------



## CanOz (3 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Why don't we just call trading what it is, speculating. And the more you do it the more money you are going to lose.
> I don't doubt that there are a small few who may make a couple lucky guesses but in the longer term do any of these people beat the index? Maybe short term but over 1, 3 or 5 years? As if. And I'm not talking Buffet or Sorro's, I'm talking the other 99.9999999% of the people out there. The people on the outside.
> 
> If anyone here can they would not be on this board they would be on there shiny boat with naked women or cabana boys drinking champs.
> ...




The great part about trading vs investing, is that if you do things right, positive expectancy and the miracle of compounding can in theory, work much faster than long term buy and hold. Therefore you can start with much smaller capital. Traders that are successful have come from smaller beginnings than many investors, in allot of cases.

You do not need to be right, only wrong for a shorter period of time than you are right.

When you realize this, you will realize how silly this statement can sound 







> Why don't we just call trading what it is, speculating. And the more you do it the more money you are going to lose.




I'm not even going to mention what "buy and hold" has done to the 401ks.

Check out Bunyip EA, its not all about being right Gecko.

CanOz


----------



## MR. (3 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Hey Burns,
> 
> I got a hot one for you!
> 
> ...




and back..... Classic
clips along bottom of screen. Bre-x
http://archives.cbc.ca/economy_business/business/topics/1211/


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Why don't we just call trading what it is, speculating. And the more you do it the more money you are going to lose.
> I don't doubt that there are a small few who may make a couple lucky guesses but in the longer term do any of these people beat the index? Maybe short term but over 1, 3 or 5 years? As if. And I'm not talking Buffet or Sorro's, I'm talking the other 99.9999999% of the people out there. The people on the outside.
> 
> If anyone here can they would not be on this board they would be on there shiny boat with naked women or cabana boys drinking champs.
> ...




Astounding!!
then we are all chumps here why bother?


----------



## nomore4s (3 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Why don't we just call trading what it is, speculating. And the more you do it the more money you are going to lose.
> I don't doubt that there are a small few who may make a couple lucky guesses but in the longer term do any of these people beat the index? Maybe short term but over 1, 3 or 5 years? As if. And I'm not talking Buffet or Sorro's, I'm talking the other 99.9999999% of the people out there. The people on the outside.
> 
> If anyone here can they would not be on this board they would be on there shiny boat with naked women or cabana boys drinking champs.
> ...




lol, no idea. You don't understand it so it's impossible

Maybe you should speak to guys like - FrankD, TH and Nick Radge just to name a few.


----------



## pj2105 (3 April 2009)

I go dead cat.

Still alot of bad news and pain to come.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (3 April 2009)

CanOz said:


> The great part about trading vs investing, is that if you do things right, positive expectancy and the miracle of compounding can in theory, work much faster than long term buy and hold. Therefore you can start with much smaller capital. Traders that are successful have come from smaller beginnings than many investors, in allot of cases.
> 
> You do not need to be right, only wrong for a shorter period of time than you are right.
> 
> ...




No disrespect I hope all here the best of luck. Like I said there are a small few who may make some short term gains or run it as a buisness etc but long term questionable. Sitting around a computer all day, married to every news clip? why bother.
And I don't doubt that allot of people have lost **** loads on there 401k or super. But for me I have been averaging in over the past 8 months or so, recently took out a margin loan for 25% and continue to average in every month or so. As the market corrects I will stop investing and pay off the loan until the next "crisis" when I will again invest while others choose to sell. In a sense I am speculating but with a more long term view, if that makes sense?

All the best of Luck

G


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> No disrespect I hope all here the best of luck. Like I said there are a small few who may make some short term gains or run it as a buisness etc but long term questionable. Sitting around a computer all day, married to every news clip? why bother.




Your ways the best and only way, i see.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (3 April 2009)

Like I siad TH no disrespect.
My way is the best way for me as you approach is the best for you.
To be honest I'm a newbie.
Not trying to preach but pose an alternate view.
Hope to hell I'm right!

Best 
G


----------



## nomore4s (3 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> No disrespect I hope all here the best of luck. Like I said there are a small few who may make some short term gains or run it as a buisness etc but long term questionable. Sitting around a computer all day, married to every news clip? why bother.




Again, no idea.

I'm not sure traders like TH, FrankD and Nick would even pay anymore attention to the news then you do. As for sitting around a computer all day it's no different to a hundred other jobs out there - virtually any office worker. And some traders might actually only trade for a few hours a day .

Trading for a living is like running any other successful business - work, hard work.


----------



## aleckara (3 April 2009)

I don't know what you traders think of the situation but all I see is that when bad news comes the market doesn't fall too much, yet on any good news the market rallies a lot. Not sure if that means we have hit THE bottom but we did hit a bottom at least.


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 April 2009)

aleckara said:


> I don't know what you traders think of the situation but all I see is that when bad news comes the market doesn't fall too much, yet on any good news the market rallies a lot. *Not sure if that means we have hit THE bottom but we did hit a bottom at least.*




That sore bottom got royally spanked overnight.



**MEOOWWW** - it lives!


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> As for sitting around a computer all day it's no different to a hundred other jobs out there - virtually any office worker.




Except I had 4 months holiday last year :bier: 

As for this pussy cat. She will probably roll over after the open ah la gap fill, but what I would be looking at is we have a chance for some higher highs in a couple of the sub index charts and some of the big caps. AND some 150 points higher in the XAO/XJO.

*If *we can also get a higher low come late April/May it would be a BIG signal for those that like to look at pretty bars & squiggly lines.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (3 April 2009)

That dead cat has landed right in my lap,... and I think it's purrring.


----------



## CapnBirdseye (3 April 2009)

I did think that this kitty was a goner.  I'm happy to play with kitty while it has some life left.... it may well be running around and catching mice soon than a lot of us expected.  Only thing is the USD....


----------



## Mitsimonsta (3 April 2009)

Thoughts of the board on this news?: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeozoA3z3Tz4&refer=home

I can see it boosting the financial institutions somewhat, and bringing overall stability to the market. I also tend to think that these new accounting rules will prevent us going back to where we were, or dipping lower again as most of us pretty much expected to happen. 

Discuss.


----------



## nomore4s (3 April 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Except I had 4 months holiday last year :bier:




B@stard:

A higher low is now the important part imo. How the next leg down plays out will be interesting and give a few more clues I think.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

aleckara said:


> I don't know what you traders think of the situation but all I see is that when bad news comes the market doesn't fall too much, yet on any good news the market rallies a lot. Not sure if that means we have hit THE bottom but we did hit a bottom at least.




Similar symptoms of the previous 'bull' market? Just proves that the capitulation low hasn't been reached yet?



Trembling Hand said:


> Except I had 4 months holiday last year :bier:
> 
> As for this pussy cat. She will probably roll over after the open ah la gap fill, but what I would be looking at is we have a chance for some higher highs in a couple of the sub index charts and some of the big caps. AND some 150 points higher in the XAO/XJO.
> 
> *If *we can also get a higher low come late April/May it would be a BIG signal for those that like to look at pretty bars & squiggly lines.




Yes, I guess the chart jockeys will be getting a leg up from every Central Bank in the world now the con is official? It will be a huge blow if it doesn't pan out that way, say, the economic reality like unemployment keeps going UP? A few short indices tonight maybe?


----------



## Nero64 (3 April 2009)

> As soon as I get my money back from the latest Charlie Aitken dodgy tip, ie BSL I 'm out and staying out, only about a grand down at present from Friday.




Hey Mr Burns seems like Charlie was right. 

BSL up another 25c today. 

You should of held for a profit....lol


----------



## MrBurns (3 April 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Hey Mr Burns seems like Charlie was right.
> BSL up another 25c today.
> You should of held for a profit....lol




Yeah I might have been holding forever.

Lost $500 if I held for another 24 hours would have made $900, it just rose with the general market nothing to do with Charlie Aitken but I shouldnt buy shares at all I havent got the patience.

I was down $1500 3 days after buying them, how was I to know it was going to recover ? 

It's just gambling......

Bloody annoying though


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Yeah I might have been holding forever.
> 
> Lost $500 if I held for another 24 hours would have made $900, it just rose with the general market nothing to do with Charlie Aitken but I shouldnt buy shares at all I havent got the patience.
> 
> ...




Aww shoot. Try putting it all on RED next time, pardner!


----------



## MrBurns (3 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Aww shoot. Try putting it all on RED next time, pardner!




Seriously......? next time I will.


----------



## MRC & Co (3 April 2009)

What is with the having to spend all day behind a computer to trade for a living?

Some guys make millions with 2 hours or less a day.

You can even read about them on the internet if you actually search and don't just read BRW or the local newspaper.  And you don't have to be any kind of genius.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> What is with the having to spend all day behind a computer to trade for a living?
> 
> Some guys make millions with 2 hours or less a day.
> 
> You can even read about them on the internet if you actually search and don't just read BRW or the local newspaper.  And you don't have to be any kind of genius.




Dont even have to know how to spell or wear pants if u dont want to


----------



## MRC & Co (3 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Dont even have to know how to spell or wear pants if u dont want to




lol.

I've seen your calls nun, and I know their at over extended, freekin good times!  If your calling yourself the average punter (as I am), then I agree.


----------



## nunthewiser (3 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> lol.
> 
> I've seen your calls nun, and I know their at over extended, freekin good times!  If your calling yourself the average punter (as I am), then I agree.





yeah m8 just an average punter , win some , lose some ........ dont have to wear pants to work ...love it


----------



## So_Cynical (3 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Aww shoot. Try putting it all on RED next time, pardner!




Nothing wrong with that as long as u cover yourself with 50% of your investment on evens 
and another half of that on 25>36..and perhaps an outsider bet on 7,8,10,11...that way your 
pretty well spread with a very high winning ratio.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> yeah m8 just an average punter , win some , lose some ........ dont have to wear pants to work ...love it



 Ooo.....pretty insistant on this pantless punter thingy.....doesn't make for a good visualisation......a nun trading FX without pants........you got the undies on havn't you?......uh oh where is this heading!

The Pantless Punter, the tracky dak trader, the undie fundie, the stock jock, the hipster tipster.....


----------



## nunthewiser (3 April 2009)

LOL "the pantless punter"!


maybe time for a namechange


----------



## marklar (3 April 2009)

Anyone willing to call the apogee of the Dead Cat Bounce anytime soon?  I've got a few things that have popped up in my watchlist this week for an entry, but I haven't.

m.


----------



## So_Cynical (4 April 2009)

GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks...also quarterly reporting season in the US 
so lotsa bad news in the next 3 or 4 weeks...im planing to bail mid April.


----------



## psychic (4 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks...also quarterly reporting season in the US
> so lotsa bad news in the next 3 or 4 weeks...im planing to bail mid April.





I agree, we are about to hit new lows over coming weeks


----------



## Sean K (4 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks...also quarterly reporting season in the US
> so lotsa bad news in the next 3 or 4 weeks...im planing to bail mid April.



Factored in


----------



## Gordon Gekko (4 April 2009)

There will be no more "devestating:" news only bad news or slightly worse than expected. The governments of the world have would not have moved forward with the G20 agreements unless there was absolutley no more suprises that could not be at least spun positively.
That with the changes of mark to market accounting will in my opinion drive the market side ways to build a base at around 4000, then its anybodys guess.

Manufactued or not the bottom is in at least for this cycle.

my

G


----------



## Sean K (4 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Factored in



I think I said that on the way down around 4500 too.

:couch


----------



## MrBurns (4 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks.




About time ..........perhaps someone will take it over and make it profitable.


----------



## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

As I've said from a charting perspective the reaction when we hit the 3800 resistence line is most important. If we head straight down on massive selling we will obviously see new lows. If we head down in an "ebb and flow" manner and form a base (a bit short) I think the market is preparing to move higher. The reaction is going to be very interesting and tell us if we are heading down to new lows or preparing to push up to the higher resistence line of ~4400. 

Another chart I have shows that we all ready have broken above a longer term resistence line were the line has all ready been touched three times. Not to sure on this one though, see what happens on the retrace, also looks like a weird h&s formation. The RS is a bit higher then the LS though so could be invalid. wonder.


----------



## Aussiejeff (4 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> There will be no more "devestating:" news only bad news or slightly worse than expected. The governments of the world have would not have moved forward with the G20 agreements unless there was absolutley no more suprises that could not be at least spun positively.
> That with the changes of mark to market accounting will in my opinion drive the market side ways to build a base at around 4000, then its anybodys guess.
> 
> Manufactued or not the bottom is in at least for this cycle.
> ...




I'll back your with my...


----------



## dlineinvestor (4 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> What is with the having to spend all day behind a computer to trade for a living?
> 
> Some guys make millions with 2 hours or less a day.
> 
> You can even read about them on the internet if you actually search and don't just read BRW or the local newspaper.  And you don't have to be any kind of genius.




MRC & Co

I've often thought how is it done .... being profitable in trading that is without all the hours in front of the screen.
The answer is in your question.
Smart money do not stay in front of computer screens which invariably blinds you from seeing real market signals.
Markets are seasonal .....  they wait. Markets get oversold / overbought .... they wait. Markets move sideways ... they wait.
I have realised that if you just wait for these genuine conditions to arise on longer time frames (daily preferably) then your chances of gains are the same as the smart money.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

dlineinvestor said:


> Markets get oversold / overbought .... they wait. Markets move sideways ... they wait.




And therein is where the discipline lies IMHO.

The guys I know of who make the cash with little screen time, have done a LOT of screen time in the past.

They now just trade the most volatile times of the day, in the most liquid markets and do BIG size.


----------



## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> That with the changes of mark to market accounting will in my opinion drive the market side ways to build a base at around 4000, then its anybodys guess.
> 
> Manufactued or not the bottom is in at least for this cycle.




Yes, I've heard about this new change to the accounting standards, what exactly are they changing (in simple English for my simple mind?).  

The second point has me thinking, Governments are really pushing for a manufactured bottom, which I actually could see as a possibility (considering we have nearly seen 3000s), but as you say, for this cycle.


----------



## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

Jim Cramer has made the call that the "depression is over". Probably his 100th bottom call. Contrarian indicator for me that markets still have a long way to fall!!!!! :

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/30018200#30018200

wonder.


----------



## Sean K (5 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Jim Cramer has made the call that the "depression is over". Probably his 100th bottom call. Contrarian indicator for me that markets still have a long way to fall!!!!! :
> 
> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/30018200#30018200
> 
> wonder.



Yeah, troubling. Must go short Monday.

He'll get it right one day and be a hero.

Still waiting for the gigantic crash that metric and his champion mate Reinhardt predicted some weeks ago.


----------



## ivant (5 April 2009)

Haha Cramer's 1429th actually. I counted. He started everyday since mid October 2007. Lol.

Not sure about a gigantic crash you wait for Kennas, but we should get a retest before October. 

I think 3800 is max for us on this move. We will have at least a 50% retracement right here. Massively overbought. The only thing thats keeping the market afloat is the institutional buying coming in.

Some interesting things about the US market over this rally,

Approximately 76% of S&P 500 are above their 50 week MA, which usually signals a reversal. The VIX is still very high, despite the rally. The volume seems to be getting weaker, with the exclusion of some days. Crude is at very high levels and screaming a reversal (remember the recent correlation with equities). Oh and we are at some key resistance levels. Also look at Chande's on the 4 hour, 8 hour, Daily. 2 day, weekly pivots are around the 3800 too. 

Ive been short since Friday night. I think I will only be increasing positions over Monday. My call is the cat was dead start of the week. We have been rallying on the smell.


----------



## Grinder (5 April 2009)

Have'nt we been over bought for sometime now?


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## ivant (5 April 2009)

Grinder said:


> Have'nt we been over bought for sometime now?




what time frame are you looking for? That is the major question. if we look on a monthly basis we are still approaching the oversold satus. if we look at a 4-hour period, we have been overbought for sometime indeed. on a 1 hour even more so. But on a daily basis it just happened


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## Tysonboss1 (6 April 2009)

What an interesting day,

We seemed to bounce off 3700 every time we hit it. After closing just shy of the 3700 mark today it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

I am not a techy myself, but I have noticed others here have said that breaking 3700 is an important mark, what are the thoughts now.

Has todays trade given of any clues to where we are headed in the short term.


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## ojm (6 April 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> GM will fall over in 3 or 4 weeks...also quarterly reporting season in the US




I hope not. I like my job. :-(


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## Nero64 (6 April 2009)

> I have realised that if you just wait for these genuine conditions to arise on longer time frames (daily preferably) then your chances of gains are the same as the smart money.




What about when the DOW went up 1000+ in two days last November, I turned $5000 into $60 000 in paper trading..lol

It's true though. It only takes 1 day to make a whole year or even a few years. The problem is recognising it early and getting onto it. 

I was in front of my screen from 6.50am that day, and I watched evey market advance in unison. The prettiest sight I ever saw  I had a bit of real money on the Hang Seng. The opening GAP on the second session after lunch was awesome.


----------



## psychic (6 April 2009)

Its a dead cat bounce for sure, check this news out

Helping drag down futures was a downgrades of 11 major U.S. banks including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) by veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo of CLSA.

Shares of all three firms were more than 3% lower in pre-market trading.

A key implication is that loan losses (to total loans) should increase to levels that exceed the Great Depression

source:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/06/markets/stockswatch/index.htm


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## So_Cynical (6 April 2009)

Who the hell is Mike Mayo....what the hell is Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia


Its a nothing story


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## psychic (6 April 2009)

It certainly made the dow futures dive and now the dow is in free-fall, never underestimate the power of a few stories like this to panic the market.

Remember this current rally was sparked by the rumour that a US bank might actually make a profit this quarter, yeah right


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## nunthewiser (7 April 2009)

lol unreal , no offence intended


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## Trembling Hand (7 April 2009)

psychic said:


> It certainly made the dow futures dive and now the dow is in free-fall, never underestimate the power of a few stories like this to panic the market.



I think that is the usual rubbish from the media. the futs were already underwater before that report hit.


psychic said:


> Remember this current rally was sparked by the rumour that a US bank might actually make a profit this quarter, yeah right




NOPE.

only if you read hindsight media "analysis" again. Asia &Europe was already running before that one


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## M34N (7 April 2009)

psychic said:


> It certainly made the dow futures dive and now the dow is in free-fall, never underestimate the power of a few stories like this to panic the market.
> 
> Remember this current rally was sparked by the rumour that a US bank might actually make a profit this quarter, yeah right




Dow down 41 points for the day and it's in free-fall? LOL

The Dow hit a low around 6,500 and now trading at 7,900, that's some dead cat indeed. Also notice that every down leg in this current run up since March has been bought into and proceeded higher, albeit now with less volume in the last few sessions. I've said it before and I'll say it again, earnings season will be what pushes this market now.


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## psychic (7 April 2009)

Honestly do you think earnings will be any better, or future guidance.  This is false hopes.  Lets wait till the end of April and see what kinda results come out of the US.  Will they match forecasts?


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## psychic (7 April 2009)

M34N said:


> Dow down 41 points for the day and it's in free-fall? LOL
> 
> The Dow hit a low around 6,500 and now trading at 7,900, that's some dead cat indeed. Also notice that every down leg in this current run up since March has been bought into and proceeded higher, albeit now with less volume in the last few sessions. I've said it before and I'll say it again, earnings season will be what pushes this market now.




At one point last night the Dow was down 146 points, so it was in free-fall


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## M34N (7 April 2009)

psychic said:


> At one point last night the Dow was down 146 points, so it was in free-fall




Was being the operative keyword there 

In other words, the markets are so volatile that a loss can become a gain, and some would even consider today's price action bullish considering the news out today.

Also, I never said I expected the upcoming reporting season would be positive, I said it would be what drives the markets next, whether it's positive or negative who knows, the markets have already fallen some 50% from their peaks and have factored in a recession, just how big of a recession no-one knows, and these results will provide a forecast of how things will be in the immediate and longer-term future.


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## MrBurns (7 April 2009)

I think a lot of this action is because there's nowhere else for the money to go, whats the interest rate in the US ?

It's bad enough here so I  imagine everyone over there with cash is desperate to get a return.


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## Gordon Gekko (7 April 2009)

Analysts have been expecting better results for US financials for the past year. Everytime they have been disapointed and the market has gone down. Is it possible that this time they may actually have lowered there expectations to allow for slightly better than expected results?
That with the changes in the accounting standards in the US should see "green shoots of hope" or some rubbish along those lines.

I would also expect better results of commodity companies considering oil has done well in the last quarter. If not better results than at least flat which is good no?

If we could move sideways from here for the next 2 weeks I would be very happy!

G


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

> If we could move sideways from here for the next 2 weeks I would be very happy!




A sideways movement from a technical level would be a very bullish signal here suggesting the market is getting ready to push up  again. I will be buying the large caps if this starts to happen on the screen. wonder.


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## M34N (7 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> A sideways movement from a technical level would be a very bullish signal here suggesting the market is getting ready to push up  again. I will be buying the large caps if this starts to happen on the screen. wonder.




Yep, looking for the same. I still think any positive news out there, regardless of how small, will be taken by the bulls and take the markets higher, and we are seeing this now. I'm personally just following the herds and will jump on this rally, it has been a substantial rebound already and I will look to benefit from it as much as possible.

But in the longer time frame, I'm still not in the market for that, only trading and holding at most for a few days. Not confident this is the end of the bear and it will, IMO, most likely return. Either way I would like to see a pull back first before the market goes a bit higher from here, things just don't 'feel' that cheap considering we are in a recession. Again, just my


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## Beej (7 April 2009)

has anyone else noticed that on Thursday last week the XAO closed above the 60, 90 and 120 day simple moving averages? This was the first time the XAO has done that since May 2008. We would have to drop back below 3553 to fall back below the 120 day SMA (a ~150 point fall from yesterdays close), and below ~3400 to be back below to 60 day SMA (a 300 point fall). The XAO has been below all 3 SMAs the entire time since a brief peek above the 60 day in Sep 08 (See chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

That seems a fairly bullish indicator? I guess it will be as others have said if the market can move sideways for a while and stay above those SMA levels for a couple of weeks?

I think it is pretty clear that this rally was/is more than just a dead cat bounce, as surely a dead cat bounce should have reversed and revealed itself after a few days to a week? Comes down to semantics/definitions I suppose. However, only time will tell if it proves to be a bear market rally vs the bottom of the current bear.

Cheers,

Beej


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## sammy84 (7 April 2009)

Beej said:


> I think it is pretty clear that this rally was/is more than just a dead cat bounce, as surely a dead cat bounce should have reversed and revealed itself after a few days to a week? Comes down to semantics/definitions I suppose. However, only time will tell if it proves to be a bear market rally vs the bottom of the current bear.




Very well said


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## nunthewiser (7 April 2009)

um .... sucka rallys been known to take months at times to play out 

might pay beej to bring up a chart actually . FIRST dead cat ran from aprox mid/late march08 to mid late may 08

not gunna type up every timespan on every sucka bounce over the years but do suggest looking at achart first


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## sammy84 (7 April 2009)

Nun looks like we have different definitions of what comprises a dead cat bounce. For me this turned into a bear a market rally or recovery the second the XJO surpassed the 3520 mark. From my analysis this was where a technical correction should have ended.

Sammy


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## Beej (7 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> um .... sucka rallys been known to take months at times to play out
> 
> might pay beej to bring up a chart actually . FIRST dead cat ran from aprox mid/late march08 to mid late may 08
> 
> not gunna type up every timespan on every sucka bounce over the years but do suggest looking at achart first




gee thanks for the pointers about charts Nun! I've never looked at those before..... might have helped with my day trading in a previous life if I had! 

If you look at the chart I posted a link to, it has your Mar-May 08 suckers rally on it. Certainly this one could still pan out as you seem to be expecting, but equally it may not. That's why I think side-ways for a couple of weeks will be needed to differentiate this rally from that other one (which is the only other time all 3 SMA have been crossed since the start of the big bad bear).

Cheers,

Beej


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## nunthewiser (7 April 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Nun looks like we have different definitions of what comprises a dead cat bounce. For me this turned into a bear a market rally or recovery the second the XJO surpassed the 3520 mark. From my analysis this was where a technical correction should have ended.
> 
> Sammy




each to there own m8 . heard many a bottom called . even in mar 08 

i personally think we havent seen the overall lows as yet , but hey i dont really care either , trade it dont fall in love with it ......

each to there own and good luck if ppl want to make this there bottom that they been searching for and investing accordingly


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## nunthewiser (7 April 2009)

Beej said:


> I think it is pretty clear that this rally was/is more than just a dead cat bounce, as surely a dead cat bounce should have reversed and revealed itself after a few days to a week?
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej





thats what you posted , i pointed out that dead cats can last a LOT longer than a week 

please do not take offense and me pointing out that you should look at a chart first


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## sinner (7 April 2009)

I have been adding shorts to the "Australia 200 Cash" instrument on IG at anything above 3730 for the last 16 odd hours and the resulting breakdown of the diagonal red line has provided a nice profit.

Even a healthy recovery requires the occasional pull-back or consolidation. If we break down from the 3700 region I will hold until the 800ma (orange dots) on the 15m chart and re-examine position there, or exit here if there is any hint of a bounce after 4pm.


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## sinner (7 April 2009)

It's also worth noting, we have not had *any* meaningful retrace from the lows of October, November or March.

I think we could probably hope for a retrace to at least 23% fib level of the all time highs to March lows. If we can't make this level then we should be verrrrry worried!


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## sinner (7 April 2009)

Well, that spike took out all my trailing stops. Who knows what will happen now, I'm waiting for 6pm so I can start on GBP/USD 

Can anyone confirm that spike actually occured and not just IG playing silly buggers? Open 3710 close 3730.


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## psychic (7 April 2009)

*Its a dead cat bounce, check this out*

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article6047929.ece

Toxic debts racked up by banks and insurers could spiral to $4 trillion (£2.7 trillion), new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are set to suggest. 

The IMF said in January that it expected the deterioration in US-originated assets to reach $2.2 trillion by the end of next year, but it is understood to be looking at raising that to $3.1 trillion in its next assessment of the global economy, due to be published on April 21. In addition, it is likely to boost that total by $900 billion for toxic assets originated in Europe and Asia. 

Banks and insurers, which so far have owned up to $1.29 trillion in toxic assets, are facing increasing losses as the deepening recession takes a toll, adding to the debts racked up from sub-prime mortgages. The IMF's new forecast, which could be revised again before the end of the month, will come as a blow to governments that have already pumped billions into the banking system. 

Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said: “The first losses were asset writedowns based on sub-prime mortgages and associated instruments. But now, banks are selling ‘plain vanilla' losses from mortgages, commercial loans and credit cards. For this reason, the housing market will play a crucial part in how big the bad debt toll is over the next year or two.” 

In its January report, the IMF said: “Degradation is also occurring in the loan books of banks, reflecting the weakening outlook for the economy. Going forward, banks will need even more capital as expected losses continue to mount.” At the same time, there is a clear shift in congressional attitudes in the United States about simply pumping money into the system, Mr Ashworth said. The British Government is also under pressure to repair its tattered finances. Injecting more money into the banks could further undermine its fiscal position. 

The IMF's jump will come as little surprise to economists who have suggested that the bad debts will be much higher than anticipated. Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor, expects bad debts from US-originated assets to reach $3.6 billion by the middle of next year. This figure is expected to rise when bad debts from assets elsewhere are calculated, he said.


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

> thats what you posted , i pointed out that dead cats can last a LOT longer than a week




Yes this is very true. Retracement levels are common and this bounce could push up by 38%, 50% or 62%. The reaction at the level of resistence of ~3800 as I said previously is going to determine how high this retracement will go. A slow zig zag drop down will be a bullish signal that this bounce has more to go.

It doesn't mean it is not apart of a more longer term down trend that I believe we are in. I simply do not know how this market can turn around and form a new bull market when there is still so much more bad news economically to come. We must not forget that during the great depression markets rallied some 50% in 1930 before dropping another 90% in 1932. History is  your friend. 

Remeber though that the stock market is not the economy and does not provide a reliable forecasting tool of what is to come economically. We are headed into a debt tsunami that is really unheard of in history. The charts show it and the facts show it. The global economy is in trouble either way (through inflation or bankruptcies, this is the only way out of this mess, unless we just prolong the debt dubble and we will face the same problems again in say 5 yrs time). Economically we are really quite stuffed.

Having said that, the market is obviously still tradable. The economy is not the stock market. You must take advantage of oversold rallies like this one before the next downtrend. Buy and hold is going to be hard over the next few years, trading I think is more favourable.  wonder.


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## nomore4s (7 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I simply do not know how this market can turn around and form a new bull market when there is still so much more bad news economically to come.




Why does it have to be a new bull market? Why can't we just go sideways for awhile?

IMO we will trade sideways for an extended period when a bottom is made, I can't see a new bull kicking off without a solid base.


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## MrBurns (7 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Why does it have to be a new bull market? Why can't we just go sideways for awhile?
> 
> IMO we will trade sideways for an extended period when a bottom is made, I can't see a new bull kicking off without a solid base.




I still say the only reason the market holds any interest for anybody is that cash has no where else to go, for now..........

So they put it in get scared take it out and thats what we're seeing now, if the banks were paying anything near reasonable interest rates the share market would collapse overnight.


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## GumbyLearner (7 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes this is very true. Retracement levels are common and this bounce could push up by 38%, 50% or 62%. The reaction at the level of resistence of ~3800 as I said previously is going to determine how high this retracement will go. A slow zig zag drop down will be a bullish signal that this bounce has more to go.
> 
> It doesn't mean it is not apart of a more longer term down trend that I believe we are in. I simply do not know how this market can turn around and form a new bull market when there is still so much more bad news economically to come. We must not forget that during the great depression markets rallied some 50% in 1930 before dropping another 90% in 1932. History is  your friend.
> 
> ...




Certainly some food for thought there wonderr.
I'm still inclined to stick with the bears.

From a historical context, it's not like the current economic environment can  replicate the New Deal actions of the 1930's as easily. The resources just are no where near as abundant as back then. The refitting of energy efficient technology such as light-bulbs in US Government buildings just don't seem to convince me as a solution to this crisis.  Especially when compared to the mass man-power keynesian economic programs of FDR when resources were abundant AND *cheap mind you*.  At the same time you will have figures skewed about the environmental maximum sustainability yield and whether it's an empirical economic argument or a biological one.

Governments are short-termers these days and I don't think there are as many cheaply accessable resources to fill the void of the pending OTC derivative collapse and quantative easing policy.   Inflation should help when it arrives though.


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Why does it have to be a new bull market? Why can't we just go sideways for awhile?
> 
> IMO we will trade sideways for an extended period when a bottom is made, I can't see a new bull kicking off without a solid base.




I was responding to the previous posters who had suggested a new bull. *I've said many many times that sidewaves action can occur and this is a bullish signal that the market is preparing to push higher. *

I do not know if you have read many of my previous posts but I have said it on many occasions. I will post the diagrams again as possible reactions when we hit the resistence and the market needs to take a break.




Push down, news lows. Then a base and move up.




Consolidating basing period which technically is an extremely bullish sign that markets are preparing to moveh higher.

wonder


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

> I still say the only reason the market holds any interest for anybody is that cash has no where else to go, for now..........




Yes monty I agree with you. Massive money printing causes asset inflation and this creates massive volatility in all assets classes. This causes markets to rally because of excess money around in the system. Again it is short term and in the long run doesn't mean much because currency is debased because of the inflation. The US Fed has proved over the past few month that they are a money printing machine. If something goes wrong they print, if it does not fix the problem they print more. This is not healthy and it stuffs the economy. Just another scenario that could eventuate out of this current problem. 



> I'm still inclined to stick with the bears.




Yes I agree. Either way you can't get out of a mess like this in a good state. Either bankruptcies and depression or hyperinflation because governments will print and print more which causes the currency to debase. This does not mean you cannot trade the market and still make money. 



> Governments are short-termers these days and I don't think there are as many cheaply accessable resources to fill the void of the pending OTC derivative collapse and quantative easing policy.




Again I agree. Each crisis is different. But governmens don't change. The response of governments will seal our fate because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that every politician has made before them. 

People were so crazy about Obama and the 'change' he bought in. I laugh at this. Obama has bough in the same people of the *past who caused this, and we expect them to fix it!* What a joke. He has the same people who removed the glass segal act and the people who deregulated the markets to cause this problem in his office. It is a joke.

w


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## moXJO (7 April 2009)

One thing that should be mentioned is the fed is attempting to do the exact opposite of what they did during the 1930's depression. Which is one of the reasons we are seeing the massive amount of money printing. Whether this causes problems further down the track (probable) remains to be seen.

I think Ruddy took their lead. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Europe nations that did not follow


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

moXJO said:


> One thing that should be mentioned is the fed is attempting to do the exact opposite of *what they did during the 1930's depression. Which is one of the reasons we are seeing the massive amount of money printing*. Whether this causes problems further down the track (probable) remains to be seen.




Yes that is true but comparing our economic problems to the great depression is silly. People in the Great Depression did not have credit cards or loans off the equity of their house. I think now is much worse because our countries and people are in a lot more debt. In 1920 US debt was $25.9 billion, now it is 10,699 billion!




If the Fed do print enough money though to starve off a depression you would then get massive inflation which will cause currency debasement. People's money will be useless as it won't be able to buy anything. It looks like at the moment this is what the Fed is trying to do. Helicopter Ben would be Mugabe's best centeral banking. The Fed are literally following the Zimbabwe economic school of thought which caused people of that country to be severly iimpoverished.

The point I'm trying to make is you can't get around this issue, in the long run pain has to be felt in an economic sense before we enter prosperous times again and a new period of growth emerges. 

This does not mean you cannot do well on the stockmarket though.



W.


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## moXJO (7 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes that is true but comparing our economic problems to the great depression is silly. People in the Great Depression did not have credit cards or loans off the equity of their house. I think now is much worse because our countries and people are in a lot more debt. In 1920 US debt was $25.9 billion, now it is 10,699 billion!
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yes, will be interesting to see what happens in the future. Btw that wasn't my opinion; apparently that’s what the Fed is actively trying to do. Reading the prior 30's report and doing the opposite. Well I heard it somewhere (cnbc, or some clown show).

Will that be the US secret weapon, inflate the debt away


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## MrBurns (7 April 2009)

moXJO said:


> Yes, will be interesting to see what happens in the future. Btw that wasn't my opinion; apparently that’s what the Fed is actively trying to do. Reading the prior 30's report and doing the opposite. Well I heard it somewhere (cnbc, or some clown show).
> 
> Will that be the US secret weapon, inflate the debt away




So buy property at the ealiest opportunity, ie: when the prices drop but before inflation takes away the value of your cash. (assuming you buy property with cash)


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## drsmith (7 April 2009)

If inflation rises so too will interest rates. Rental yield from property will therefore increase in conjunction with increases in deposit rates. This can only be achieved by increasing rent and/or decreasing property values.


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## MACCA350 (7 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> We must not forget that during the great depression markets rallied some 50% in 1930 before dropping another 90% in 1932. History is  your friend.



Yes, but the rally in 1932 started only 2 months after the start of the decline and peaked 5 months later. We are currently already 18 months in..........then again this rally could be over now, or could last 6+ months......who knows


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

Sorry this is the third time my fkn computer has frozen while writing this post so apologies if it is not of great length. 



> Yes, will be interesting to see what happens in the future. Btw that wasn't my opinion; apparently that’s what the Fed is actively trying to do. Reading the prior 30's report and doing the opposite. Well I heard it somewhere (cnbc, or some clown show).



Yes I think I heard something like that somewhere as well. As I have said previously, what do you expect from these monkies? I think I would actually recommend doing the exect opposite of what the people at Fed say. I think you would come out the winner on most occasions. 


> Will that be the US secret weapon, inflate the debt away



Haha, sadly it looks like that is the cause at the moment.



> So buy property at the ealiest opportunity, ie: when the prices drop but before inflation takes away the value of your cash. (assuming you buy property with cash)




I don't know much at all about property so can't really comment on that one. What I would be doing though if I had a fair swindle of cash would be hiring a very experienced trader who actually has a record. Not your everyday guy off the street. I'm talking about people who are in or near the class of Radge. Like the guys he wrote about in his "everday traders" book a few years ago.

Also I would be looking at gold. Trying not to sound like a crazy bear here, but obviously if what we have layed out starts to occur over the next 5 to 10 years then I would be going long gold. I would sit back and watch and see how things pan out first. In a few years time if we are going down this inflation avenue gold would obviously do very well like usual. 

In the short term though I think gold will continue to go weaker as it has (1) broken the support line (see enclosed chart). (2) Equity markets look like they will retrace over the next few months as well so this obviously does not hold well for Gold. I would actually be short gold in the near term as we continue to see this bounce. I think the that lvl of resistence at 1000 - 1200 will eventually be broken, but it will tested a few times first. When it does, given the right economic/stockmarket surrounding, it should power ahead. This would be a normal stage of market development considering the surroundings, not the end of the world. 




wonder.


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## wonderrman (8 April 2009)

MACCA350 said:


> Yes, but the rally in 1932 started only 2 months after the start of the decline and peaked 5 months later. We are currently already 18 months in..........then again this rally could be over now, or could last 6+ months......who knows




Yes that is true. I have some figures for you - it only took us less then 350 days to decline by 50%, compared to 73/74 when it tool 437 days. The 2000 to 2003 bear market decline of 50% took 630 days to complete. We were in very oversold territory so a strong rally entailed. 

In the long run I don't see how the time frame effects our overall position though - that the economy is stuffed. Could you elaborate on your point a little please and its relevance? wonder.


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## MACCA350 (8 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes that is true. I have some figures for you - it only took us less then 350 days to decline by 50%, compared to 73/74 when it tool 437 days. The 2000 to 2003 bear market decline of 50% took 630 days to complete. We were in very oversold territory so a strong rally entailed.
> 
> In the long run I don't see how the time frame effects our overall position though - that the economy is stuffed. Could you elaborate on your point a little please and its relevance? wonder.



No real point, just noting the time frame differences.

cheers


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## Aussiejeff (8 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes that is true. I have some figures for you - it only took us less then 350 days to decline by 50%, compared to 73/74 when it tool 437 days. The 2000 to 2003 bear market decline of 50% took 630 days to complete. We were in very oversold territory so a strong rally entailed.
> 
> *In the long run I don't see how the time frame effects our overall position though - that the economy is stuffed*. Could you elaborate on your point a little please and its relevance? wonder.




So, a dead cat really is a _dead cat_ after all - no matter how long it took to die?


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## Uncle Festivus (8 April 2009)

Funny that it (the retrace or resumption?) coincides with the start of real world data ie US company reports, Alcoa being the culprit to kick things off, literally?

They (the presidents working party, or whatever disguise they go under these days - oh yeah, Goldman Sachs ) might try to fool the charts but the fundamentals will still call the shot's in the end.

Goldman Sachs is the bouncing ball - follow that and you know what's coming?


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Goldman-Sachs-bailout-bonanza/story.aspx?guid=%7B504CB844%2DC558%2D4E40%2DB928%2D80C16DECBC05%7D


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## Aussiejeff (8 April 2009)

Speaking of recoveries, has Obama-san gone home to lead his disciples out of the Dark Canyon yet? Or is he reluctant to face the looming homeland reality and instead prefers the company of the international jetset?


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## MrBurns (8 April 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Hey Mr Burns seems like Charlie was right.
> 
> BSL up another 25c today.
> 
> You should of held for a profit....lol




Nope he was wrong back to where we started, it's just gambling........


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## Trembling Hand (8 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> it's just gambling........




Yes always is that way for many


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## Tysonboss1 (9 April 2009)

Good start today,

Hopefully the last few days was it for the down leg,

I should be so lucky


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## sinner (10 April 2009)

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/04/sp-500-50day-moving-average-spread.html

Bespoke has posted an article on their blog, pointing out: "The S&P 500 is currently trading 8.56% above its 50-day moving average, which is its most overbought reading since May 2001. As shown in the historical 50-day moving average spread chart of the S&P 500 below, these levels are rarely reached, and when they are, pullbacks or sideways trading usually ensues. "

Although if you click the link and look at the comments you will note someone has pointed out that during the 1982 47% rally, the spread moved as high as 14%.

I have attached the chart included in the article. I have also attached a 3 year chart of the SP500 overlayed with the 20MA of the total put/call ratio as published by the CBOE (thanks to IndexIndicators.com and wayneL for putting me onto this chart).

As you can see, there have not been so few puts on the market in a very very long time. Generally as a contrarian indicator this would highlight that nobody is really shorting, everyone is long! When everyone is long, it's time to go down.

Caveat, the markets will do as  they like, not what the pretty lines indicate!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (11 April 2009)

What's the 'bet' that global markets will be up again this week after another 'surprise' lift in bank earnings and "better than analysts estimates" figures filter through? It's so orchestrated it seems illegal to make money out of it - hang on, it is  GS will top estimates? Pile on the longs....?


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## Gordon Gekko (11 April 2009)

That's right uncle!

If your not long your wrong!!

Best of luck

G


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## arae (14 April 2009)

"Even if a new bull market did begin earlier this week, chances are good that the market in the next several weeks will retest the bear market's low. *That at least is what occurred following almost all of the 34 bear market bottoms since 1900."*

March 11th, 2009 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={F072CB1B-D990-4D3A-8F45-D92AB9FCCFFA}

Sounds like quite an overwhelming statistic. I would be interested to hear anyone else's thoughts on this, including, if in fact it is true.


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## psychic (14 April 2009)

I am ready to re-test those lows


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## Gordon Gekko (14 April 2009)

Haven't heard much from the bears in the last couple of days? Does that mean they are starting to believe this rally actually has legs?


Assuming it does retest the lows would you bears buy in at the lows or would you assume its going to go even lower? At what point do you see value?

When is a dead cat bounce considered a recovery?

The market overshot to the down side, I think it will surprise most how it overshoots to the upside.

All the best of luck!

G


----------



## psychic (14 April 2009)

Yes, this is the start of the big dive, Dow futures down after this news:

*Stores suffer big drop in March sales 

Unexpected 1.1% decline in overall sales follows two months of gains*


----------



## carmen (14 April 2009)

I would love the market to re-test the lows, knowing my luck wall street will rally off this news


----------



## metric (15 April 2009)

*World Bank Calls China: A “Ray of Hope”*

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/world-bank-calls-china-a-ray-of-hope-33134



> World Bank Calls China: A “Ray of Hope”
> by Tony Sagami   04-14-09
> 
> 
> ...





more at link...


----------



## MrBurns (15 April 2009)

Cant understand how anyone could buy into all the bad news around, must Be blind optimism, but they are............I will be sitting on my hands for a while yet, unemployment looks to be spiraling out of control, it just snowballs, no ones spending so the economy protracts, more layoffs, people spend less and around it goes, I cant see an end to it yet, I can see empty shops looming on the near horizon, retailers you know well are under extreme stress and may not survive, well lets face it they wont because this wont let up for a long time yet, we're still in the down leg of economic decline.


----------



## pilots (15 April 2009)

I am with you on this, while we have unemployment is on its way up, nothing will happen.


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## professor_frink (15 April 2009)

pilots said:


> I am with you on this, while we have unemployment is on its way up, nothing will happen.




unemployment usually peaks after markets have already bottomed, probably not worth keeping an eye on it to look for an entry point back into the market


----------



## michael_selway (15 April 2009)

professor_frink said:


> unemployment usually peaks after markets have already bottomed, probably not worth keeping an eye on it to look for an entry point back into the market




Yep the share market is a leading indicator as prices are based on future estimates of EPS, while unemployement is a lagging indicator, as once EPS drop companies will look to fire 

thx

MS


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## MrBurns (15 April 2009)

professor_frink said:


> unemployment usually peaks after markets have already bottomed, probably not worth keeping an eye on it to look for an entry point back into the market




I think unemployment wont peak for a while yet though it's accererating at a great pace at present, I think that will keep going for a while.

So how can you buy into this market unless you're just trading ? You cant , Qantas for instance will be a smaller company with less profits for who knows how long and there's more to come, in fact almost every listed stock will be effected this way.

Yes I know it's already dropped 50% but what these stocks are worth depends on how they come out of this mess, it's just guess work.


----------



## Grinder (15 April 2009)

psychic said:


> Yes, this is the start of the big dive, Dow futures down after this news:
> 
> *Stores suffer big drop in March sales
> 
> Unexpected 1.1% decline in overall sales follows two months of gains*




Psychic, you seem to be quite the doomsayer in all your posts for sometime now. Is this reflective of your true opinion of the market or are you simply short waiting for a reversal?


----------



## MrBurns (15 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I
> Yes I know it's already dropped 50% but what these stocks are worth depends on how they come out of this mess, it's just guess work.




I have a sneaking suspicion that the banks will be more than ok when this is over they've strengthened their positions nicely and seem immune to problems as they are a monopoly they just change the rules and/or adjust their fees to suit, need to decide when to go in though.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Haven't heard much from the bears in the last couple of days? Does that mean they are starting to believe this rally actually has legs?
> 
> 
> Assuming it does retest the lows would you bears buy in at the lows or would you assume its going to go even lower? At what point do you see value?
> ...




Bears are by nature a very patient lot. I have been closing longs and opening shorts these few day's. Goldman Sachs sp reflecting reality today on the requirement to bolster the balance sheet with private investors money. A bigger smoke and mirrors sideshow attraction featuring freaks and magicians there has never been. The criminals are still in charge of the system.



psychic said:


> Yes, this is the start of the big dive, Dow futures down after this news:
> 
> *Stores suffer big drop in March sales
> 
> Unexpected 1.1% decline in overall sales follows two months of gains*




Don't you just love the 'unexpected' bit each time. We are probably at the point where demand is equalling manufacturing at recession levels at the same time as inventories are depleting or have been depleted - it doesn't mean it's a bottom, just a new phase of slow decline?



metric said:


> http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/world-bank-calls-china-a-ray-of-hope-33134
> 
> more at link...



China is going backwards at anything less than 8%, so 6% is recessionary for them. They are already starting to show glut's of some commodities due to the artificial stimuli from their governments ditto response to the GFC.


----------



## nomore4s (15 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> So how can you buy into this market unless you're just trading ? You cant , Qantas for instance will be a smaller company with less profits for who knows how long and there's more to come, in fact almost every listed stock will be effected this way.
> 
> Yes I know it's already dropped 50% but what these stocks are worth depends on how they come out of this mess, it's just guess work.




There will always be a certain amount of risk with buying shares. When & what you are willing to buy depends alot on your plan, timeframe and appetite for risk.

To me at least there is some great value appearing in stocks with very good future outlooks that are paying good d/e yields. Some companies will continue to grow earnings even in this environment and other companies with strong balance sheets will ride out this storm with minimal damage. I have been buying small parcels for this portfolio for a few months now - refer my blog.

People need to keep in mind that just like the last bubble eventually burst, this bust will eventually recover. Whether that takes 1 year or 10 years I don't know but I do know this is an opportunity to set myself up for future years.


----------



## Nyden (15 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> There will always be a certain amount of risk with buying shares. When & what you are willing to buy depends alot on your plan, timeframe and appetite for risk.
> 
> To me at least there is some great value appearing in stocks with very good future outlooks that are paying good d/e yields. Some companies will continue to grow earnings even in this environment and other companies with strong balance sheets will ride out this storm with minimal damage. I have been buying small parcels for this portfolio for a few months now - refer my blog.
> 
> People need to keep in mind that just like the last bubble eventually burst, this bust will eventually recover. Whether that takes 1 year or 10 years I don't know but I do know this is an opportunity to set myself up for future years.




Completely agree. Burns, even in raging bull-markets, there is always the chance you'll just be a shocking loser and pick all the wrong buys!

Jeez, just look at the bearishness here. So many people posting their little 's, wishing for new lows to be re-tested?! Why? Are you guys short? No, probably not. Upset that you missed a short-term bottom? Yes, that sounds about right.

If we do hit new lows, will you guys actually do anything with that ? No, because you're whinging little cowards who will only keep calling for new lows, in the hopes of perhaps hitting zero?  Just let me know when some of you buy in, so that I may sell.


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## MrBurns (15 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> Completely agree. Burns, even in raging bull-markets, there is always the chance you'll just be a shocking loser and pick all the wrong buys!
> 
> Jeez, just look at the bearishness here. So many people posting their little 's, wishing for new lows to be re-tested?! Why? Are you guys short? No, probably not. Upset that you missed a short-term bottom? Yes, that sounds about right.
> 
> If we do hit new lows, will you guys actually do anything with that ? No, because you're whinging little cowards who will only keep calling for new lows, in the hopes of perhaps hitting zero?  Just tell me when some of you buy in, so that I may sell.




Haha if I have to throw money away so I wont be called a coward, count me out.

Calculated risk is one thing gambling is another.

I dont care about lows or picking the bottom I just dont want to put money into a market that may sink any second, coward ? no, just not dumb ars* bullish stupid.


----------



## Nyden (15 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Haha if I have to throw money away so I wont be called a coward, count me out.
> 
> Calculated risk is one thing gambling is another.
> 
> I dont care about lows or picking the bottom I just dont want to put money into a market that may sink any second, coward ? no, just not dumb ars* bullish stupid.




No, you're not a coward Burns because at least there are actions behind your judgements, you act on your beliefs. You sell if you believe there's to be a downfall, and you buy if you believe there's upside.

When I mention the cowards, I'm referring to those that simply state that they're "ready for the new lows"; yet do nothing when they hit! They say they're cashed up, and ready to buy - but if / when we hit 2800, will they actually do anything? I doubt it.

Burns, what I will say about what I've witnessed recently from you though, is that you were using the market to gamble, not invest.

When you first decided to buy into Bluescope, it sounded as though you had a long term view; that steel would eventually rise. Yet you sold out 2 days after, why? The reason I say you were gambling, is because it seemed as though you had no plan. Did you decide if it was a short-term or long-term holding, how did you select your position size (I'm guessing it was too large), did you have a target sell price, or a stop loss?

Or, did you simply buy in because, "I want to make 2k in one day"; that's the difference between gambling and investing.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (15 April 2009)

OK so employment is a lagging indicator, the markets forward looking - so that means that the crashing employment rate is just a result of the markets a few months ago right?

WRONG.

We aree not in a theoretical situation her - this is real. Last year before christmas saw the first preparatory steps by companies to insulate themselves from the impending crisis caused by the credit crunch. The real world hadn't yet been hit by the crisis (real world being jobs and being able to spend our salaries). So now we are in the midst of the the second round of sackings that are being driven by real balance sheets problems. ie no one is buying anything, major projects have stopped. Spoke to a mate last night, he has been retrenched from his job at a stone masons. he was well paid and considered the gun, but too expensive to keep when no-one wants rocks on their walls anymore. He along with heaps of others were given the hairy elbow skin 2 weeks ago. The size of the cut was 66%.... Where I work we have reduced our development spend by 50% over the last few months - that equates to 150 jobs. The next round of cuts gets going next week....

We have only just started to see the real impact to real people and their capacity to buy stuff. The next lot of emplyment figures are going to look pretty dire. 

I'd be surprised if we don't revisit the bottom again this year...


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## MrBurns (15 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> No, you're not a coward Burns because at least there are actions behind your judgements, you act on your beliefs. You sell if you believe there's to be a downfall, and you buy if you believe there's upside.
> 
> When I mention the cowards, I'm referring to those that simply state that they're "ready for the new lows"; yet do nothing when they hit! They say they're cashed up, and ready to buy - but if / when we hit 2800, will they actually do anything? I doubt it.
> 
> ...




No I wasnt gambling but I thought the market was heading down again and I had $14k in there and really didnt feel it was safe.

I have no risk tolerance and shouldnt be in there at all, but my neighbor used to rib me about that ..........now he's probably a million down and I'm not so go figure........


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## MACCA350 (15 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> No I wasnt gambling but I thought the market was heading down again and I had $14k in there and really didnt feel it was safe.
> 
> I have no risk tolerance and shouldnt be in there at all, but my neighbor used to rib me about that ..........now he's probably a million down and I'm not so go figure........



I've been holding $16k worth of Bluescope for about 4 months now. Bought in at $3.16 and have ridden the market as I have no doubt that it will be a good investment for the future as things recover.

I started buying up stocks in November and are now invested in 13 different stocks from a variety of different sectors with some blue chip and some more speculative. Some are long term investments, some are short term.

cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (15 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> Completely agree. Burns, even in raging bull-markets, there is always the chance you'll just be a shocking loser and pick all the wrong buys!
> 
> Jeez, just look at the bearishness here. So many people posting their little 's, wishing for new lows to be re-tested?! Why? Are you guys short? No, probably not. Upset that you missed a short-term bottom? Yes, that sounds about right.
> 
> If we do hit new lows, will you guys actually do anything with that ? No, because you're whinging little cowards who will only keep calling for new lows, in the hopes of perhaps hitting zero?  Just let me know when some of you buy in, so that I may sell.




Spoken like someone who has done their money and now is bitter and resentful?

You misunderstand bearishness for reality. The markets have got it wrong with the pre-emptive bullishness or as they say 'forward looking', despite evidence of worsening conditions (See Datsuns post for reality). Nothing wrong with that as there's a lot of people lost real money by following the advice of all these so called experts. But what I see is a bounce that's not covered by volume, in  fact some may see it as the last chance for an exit.

If you start degrading the thread with comments like "whinging little cowards" then you put yourself forward to justify your post's by showing us how you are handling the situation - tell us how a real pro trades/invests in this market? From this and other postings your sentiment changes with the wind, but always with the same venomous disregard for others point of view.

These markets sort the men from the boy's, reality from fiction!

What are you doing???


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## Datsun Disguise (15 April 2009)

Just because the market is dead doesn't mean there isn't investment/gambling opportunities available.  If you invest on good information with a good reason for taking the risk then you'll make money in most markets. Investing for the 'long term' in times like this in companies that will be good 'in the long run' is a great strategy if you aren't interested in doing the real research.

As for investing / gambling argument. Anything with an element of risk is a gamble, you can't decouple them imo.


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## Uncle Festivus (15 April 2009)

Here's how 'forward looking" the market is - a leading indicator say's it's only just begun?



> *TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- A leading economic index for Australia fell in February to its weakest level in more than two decades, pointing to a possible heavy contraction for the nation's economy, according to data released Wednesday.*
> 
> The headline month-on-month rate contracted 0.3% in February from January to an annualized rate of 5.1%.
> That result for the index, compiled by Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute, was the lowest level since September 1982, according to reports. The annualized rate, meanwhile, was well below the long-term trend of 2.9%.
> The index is meant to signal the likely pace of economic activity in three to nine months into the future.




http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={791FA8C0-004D-4460-8D6C-1C02DE22BF87}


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## MRC & Co (15 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Haven't heard much from the bears in the last couple of days? Does that mean they are starting to believe this rally actually has legs?




Nope, still waiting for a quick come-down, but I would really like to see a spike up into the 3800s (preferably high 800s) and hopefully the S&P does the same, hitting around 875s.

Been looking for shorts more and more though lately, and trading with a strong short bias as of today (previously cautiously bearish), only took about 5 longs today out of about 70 trades.  First time I have been so biased, unsure exactly why I am taking such a big bias, but I sense the time for some big downers is right around the corner now, I can almost sniff it (spike up first would be nice though).


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## nunthewiser (15 April 2009)

IS A BIG BAD BEAR 

just waiting for a few more goldilocks moments before i finish settin my trap 


could be wrong tho , but hey the dude asked where we are .  here i am .....

but hey on a side note , been one bewt rally and sure been an easy one to jump in and out of .... 

blessem all i say


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## Trembling Hand (16 April 2009)

The Boyz didn't like the GDP out of China today. Is this going to be the *cat*alyst that kills the cat?? 

China’s Economy Expands at the Slowest Pace in Almost a Decade


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## Uncle Festivus (16 April 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> The Boyz didn't like the GDP out of China today. Is this going to be the *cat*alyst that kills the cat??
> 
> China’s Economy Expands at the Slowest Pace in Almost a Decade




No, no.. it's good news - it means we are at the bottom, again! Now they can start making things for the worlds consumers, again. Just need to make the worlds consumers consume, again?? Small flaw in the plan, but worth spending a few trillion to debunk an untried theory?


----------



## Aussiejeff (16 April 2009)

Hmmm. I suspect the only "bounces" we are having these days are being fueled primarily by Big Bailed-out Banks worldwide throwing free taxpayer gifted Bailout Buck$ at a zillion $upa-cheep stocks in the hope they can punt some big winners. 

Let's face it, they have been given cast-iron political guarantees that they will NEVER, EVER be allowed to go bust (remember the "too big too fail" mantra?), so now they have a great big green light to go gamble like crazy with bucket loads of Bailout Buck$ no matter what the risk.  

Lemme see. If I was given 10's of Billion$ of FREE Bailout Buck$ to "invest" errr.... *coff* ..... GAMBLE ... in the stockmarkets, would I sit on it or GO NUTZ!

I think we know the an$wer.  

How many heavily traded stocks now have big banks as their major shareholders? I re$t my ca$e.


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## MRC & Co (16 April 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> The Boyz didn't like the GDP out of China today. Is this going to be the *cat*alyst that kills the cat??
> 
> China’s Economy Expands at the Slowest Pace in Almost a Decade




Yeh, market didn't like that one after all the buzz out of China lately!  Didn't expect such a hammering of the figure, but hey, I'll take it!  

And for the first time today in quite some time, I saw a legitimate seller in there, even after the Nikkei and S&P went haywire, they couldn't push us through this guy!  I think some profits are starting to be taken off the table.


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## Uncle Festivus (16 April 2009)

JP Morgan 'results' out now, and surprise surprise they come in 'better than expected'. Futures did a pole vault then ho hum again.

Some charts to mull over; it's bit like Wile E Coyote after running off the cliff and momentarily realises what's about to happen next?




Ascending wedge




Too bullish??


----------



## >Apocalypto< (16 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The markets have got it wrong with the pre-emptive bullishness




*Markets never get it wrong*, people with opinions do.....


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## Gordon Gekko (17 April 2009)

If the market can break through 3800 and hold those levels into the weekend, is that bullish?

At what point is a dead cat bounce considered a sustained recovery?

Get On Board!!! 


Best

G


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## aleckara (17 April 2009)

Who ever said the stock market follows the economy? It follows its own patterns - the economy is normally an excuse for something happening that would of happened anyway (the market was overbought/oversold)

The economy troubles may be beginning. But the effects (credit restrictions and such) that are doing this do lag a fair bit - banks and everything are still in contracts to provide after all. When the government is in massive debt maybe then we will see a correction.


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> JP Morgan 'results' out now, and surprise surprise they come in 'better than expected'. Futures did a pole vault then ho hum again.




At the same time, US new housing starts come in with a *surprise* _'much worse than expected'_ result after the previous month's *surprise* _'much better than expected'_ results.

Every day it is *surprise*, *surprise*...

So, either the stats out of the US can't be believed due to flaky procedures and methods (ala Aussie Bureau of Stats rubbish) or..

*Who is pulling our chains?*


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 April 2009)

aleckara said:


> Who ever said the stock market follows the economy? It follows its own patterns - the economy is normally an excuse for something happening that would of happened anyway (the market was overbought/oversold)
> 
> The economy troubles may be beginning. But the effects (credit restrictions and such) that are doing this do lag a fair bit - banks and everything are still in contracts to provide after all. When the government is in massive debt maybe then we will see a correction.




So, where is the historical precedent where almost all the World's big banks (those surviving now becoming more like "behemoth banks" IMO) had SO MUCH taxpayer funding thrown at them in a desperate attempt by all the world's gummints to float them back into stratospheric profit making? 

I don't think any previous "recessions" have ever been on this massive scale or seen the same rapidity of 100% government-backed "free boosting" of the wealth and financial market power of the Behemoths?

Of course, I stand to be corrected.


----------



## moXJO (17 April 2009)

With the amount of spin coming out of Washington you have to be very careful in picking one solid direction. I posted a link to a forum (posted it a few months back). That was saying the exact same things about the state of the US economy, as are posted on this forum. It took me a minute to realize that it was actually from 1999-2000. So the illusion that is Wall Street finance may just soldier on. So long as they can fudge the books and turn the tide of sentiment. 
But when will all this crash into a screaming mess? The debt just keeps snowballing.

I have read that China has cottoned on to the fact, and is now stock pilling metals instead of western securities. Something about pegging their dollar to a broader spectrum of metals, instead of just gold. So at least our mines should (hopefully) stay relatively busy.


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 April 2009)

An interesting snippet from today's The Australian..



> An RBA analysis of wealth distribution shows that *the richest 20 per cent hold 80 per cent of the directly owned wealth in the share market* and 60 per cent of superannuation assets.




This sobering fact might give some insight to some of us mere mortals into the sometimes apparent disconnection between the current sharemarket performance & optimism vs the "real economy" performance & pessimism. 

Basically, I reckon you just have to think like a multi-millionaire or billionaire to make sense of the (to some of us) seemingly over-optimistic moves in the share markets.

So, just imagine you have got a $million or two or more to play with. Would you be tempted to buy up and play with blue-chips at today's "bargain" prices? Most likely the answer would be a resounding HELL YEAH!

There's your answer to the conundrum.

Um. So, would one of you 20 percenters like to "loan" me a $million at 0%? I'd like to play too....!!


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> An interesting snippet from today's The Australian..
> 
> 
> 
> ...






Everyone including the rich had to start somewhere. Some may be family money or made through a buisness.
But even the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
If you have a time frame of years then why not start to accumulate at these prices? Should you wait for a pull back that may never come? And even if it did would you buy or wait for it to go lower possibly missing it again?
The rich get richer because they understand cycles and they have the balls to act.
If you dont have the money to lose then don't bother investing at these or any other prices, keep you money in the bank.

This is not ment to be directed to Ausjeff in particular.

Best
G


----------



## Uncle Festivus (17 April 2009)

>Apocalypto< said:


> *Markets never get it wrong*, people with opinions do.....




Ah yes, the infallible charts, which I have posted - explain the set ups forming right now. What is it saying to you?

Too high, too fast, based on hope & rhetoric, and perhaps a tiny little bit of fraud thrown in.

I remember several conversations with you, and others, before this all started and there was a high degree of skepticism and ignorance. Nothing has changed for the better, in fact things are several times worse. It's a technical rally?

I'ts human nature to want to believe that things are getting better when at the very best things are only getting less worse, but there are still the underlying severe structural imbalances that caused this in the first place ie too many Japanese Yens, and now too many US dollars, British pounds etc etc

The lawsuits are building against the big end of town for the great con. It's ironic in that if justice prevails then we are probably heading for much worse?

I have found ascending wedges fairly reliable signals of rally exhaustion?


----------



## GumbyLearner (17 April 2009)

Are we in the largest global credit contraction in 60 years?


----------



## sails (17 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> ...I have found ascending wedges fairly reliable signals of rally exhaustion?




UF, I like trendlines and have added another, more unconventional line to your chart and circled the points where it touches.  It does go through some other price action, but have found some of these intersecting lines based on medium term highs and lows often give some support / resistance.

However, whether it is a pause, reversal or the market totally ignores it, only time will tell.


----------



## Sean K (17 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'ts human nature to want to believe that things are getting better when at the very best things are only getting less worse,



It's human nature to follow the lemmings off the cliff too.


----------



## Wysiwyg (17 April 2009)

Notice the anticapatory correction after the bounce doesn`t happen.  Draw them higher, draw them higher then schmacko. Only the greedy and the late comers get burned. Just my  worth.


----------



## RayG (17 April 2009)

Here's a little fun for the bears..

This cat wouldn't vroom if you put 4,000 volts through it.  

see.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218

Me?  I'm still betting that we have already seen the worst... Buy, Buy, Buy.. Bye

Regards


----------



## Uncle Festivus (17 April 2009)

The Norwegian Blue Cat??

The boyz will have to dig deep going into the week end to salvage the sell off this arvo to close above the 'psychological' level of 3800 to keep this baby alive?



> April 16 (Bloomberg) -- David Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., *said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent.*
> 
> He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.
> 
> Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s.



*Ding dong - **28 percent in five weeks!*


----------



## nomore4s (17 April 2009)

rotflmao, what a surprise - someone who runs a bear fund expects the market to drop.


----------



## sammy84 (17 April 2009)

Thats close wasn't very promising. XJO didn't want to hold past 3820. Where we go from here will be important. I guess we will know the true direction of this rally by at least next tuesday, tight stops till then for me


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 April 2009)

Closed all my longs today. Daily and 5min charts for XAO attached. Looks like a top to me. Happy to re-enter if I'm wrong.


----------



## studmuffin (17 April 2009)

Was there any particular news item that prompted the weak close or was it just exhaustion ? It looks like XJO 3800 and XAO 3750 has an awsome line of ressistance.


----------



## MrBurns (17 April 2009)

ROFL I just looked at the ASX, havent had time all day, what a roller coaster, WTF is going on ?


----------



## wonderrman (17 April 2009)

studmuffin said:


> Was there any particular news item that prompted the weak close or was it just exhaustion ? It looks like XJO 3800 and XAO 3750 has an awsome line of ressistance.




There wasn't any negativen news that I am aware of. I would put it as exhaustion, markets can 't run 25% without a breather. Buyer's need a break. As commented previously ~3800 is the resistence line we were all looking at before another push down. Lets see what happens and the way the markets move down (if they do) over the next few week. It is this reaction that will determine my trading strategy over the next few months.


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## Gordon Gekko (17 April 2009)

I thought this article was worth a read.

"There is a tonne of cash on the global sidelines. This is exactly the same in Australia, where financial planners tell me there is a big pool of term deposits about to come due and investors will have to make a choice of rolling to a significantly lower term deposit rate or asset allocating to riskier assets. Planners tell me they believe there will be rotation from term deposits to income based domestic equity fund products."


http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/pages/040BCD14A99B6686CA25759B00178079?OpenDocument

Best

G


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## MrBurns (17 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I thought this article was worth a read.
> 
> "There is a tonne of cash on the global sidelines. This is exactly the same in Australia, where financial planners tell me there is a big pool of term deposits about to come due and investors will have to make a choice of rolling to a significantly lower term deposit rate or asset allocating to riskier assets. Planners tell me they believe there will be rotation from term deposits to income based domestic equity fund products."
> 
> ...




Makes sense but I've never seen Charlie Aitken get anything right.


----------



## MRC & Co (17 April 2009)

MS Tradeism, yep, my thoughts exactly on the charts, just the 'spike' through to the 800s and false break I was looking for and talking of since the start of this rally, target achieved.

Uncle, DING DONG 28% in 5 wks shouldn't be taken lightly, an over-extension needs a reaction, again, suits the charts.

Bullish sentiment in the air a bit now for sure, see it on the boards and in the media, funny considering the scepticism at the start of this rally and before it (what has changed, people need confirmation, whereas we are in a better shorting region now than then). 

Really all just psychology, the most important aspect of trading IMO.  It really is all just pushing, pulling, defending and covering, absolutely no magic.

Studmuffin, Taiwan came off at exactly the same time as us (lunch), as per usual lately, leading the other markets (though their reaction wasn't quite the same).  Apparently Toshiba released poor profits around this time............


----------



## cfdman (17 April 2009)

If its a bounce ..its one hell of one.I treat it as the market shows it .All u can do is follow the support and resistant levels and go from there.Take the opportunity as it happens ,for up or down.


----------



## MrBurns (17 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> MS Tradeism, yep, my thoughts exactly on the charts, just the 'spike' through to the 800s and false break I was looking for and talking of since the start of this rally, target achieved.
> 
> Uncle, DING DONG 28% in 5 wks shouldn't be taken lightly, an over-extension needs a reaction, again, suits the charts.
> 
> ...




Congratulations on post 2000


----------



## MRC & Co (17 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Congratulations on post 2000




Thx Burnsy.

Let's break that right now as I forgot to mention something.

As of late afternoon today, the futures began to trade at a discount to the cash, the 'boyz' pricing in a fall from grace.............?


----------



## >Apocalypto< (17 April 2009)

UF



> Ah yes, the infallible charts, which I have posted - explain the set ups forming right now. What is it saying to you?




they don't say much cuz I don't look at em. I trade off a 15 min EUR/USD chart and i can't care less what is going on overall apart from minor interest.



> Too high, too fast, based on hope & rhetoric, and perhaps a tiny little bit of fraud thrown in.




In your opinion....



> I remember several conversations with you, and others, before this all started and there was a high degree of skepticism and ignorance. Nothing has changed for the better, in fact things are several times worse. It's a technical rally?




I never spoke to you about this rally, your mistaken.



> I'ts human nature to want to believe that things are getting better when at the very best things are only getting less worse, but there are still the underlying severe structural imbalances that caused this in the first place ie too many Japanese Yens, and now too many US dollars, British pounds etc etc




your opinion again.. nothing true in that till its confirmed. 



> I have found ascending wedges fairly reliable signals of rally exhaustion?




One is close to failing on the aud/usd daily.... they are only reliable till confirmed. 

you have an opinion and so do I, is mine better then yours, no. it's just an opinion. price cant lie as it's set by the players no matter what the reason for the move, whether u agree or not. its fact and you have to accepted what it tells u or you will lose...

hope you don't let your vision be clouded in any situation you see in the markets.

i still remember u could not accept the usd could ever rally that was a time your mind was clouded and you got it wrong......

I just lost on a trade just now.. do i care no cuz the market told me to buy then it told me i was wrong that's life and that's trading.....

cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus (17 April 2009)

>Apocalypto< said:


> I never spoke to you about this rally, your mistaken.




I'm going back to 2007 (on chat), before IT started - IT is still going.



>Apocalypto< said:


> i still remember u could not accept the usd could ever rally that was a time your mind was clouded and you got it wrong......




No, I don't recall that being my stance. I was skeptical about the claim that the USD was going to have a multi year advance. After your club made the call, it then subsequently tanked to 71.....your? opinion again.. nothing true in that till its confirmed. Multi year advance? It's still at the same level it was in Jan 07.


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## Gordon Gekko (17 April 2009)

Any thoughts other that its bull**** etc with regard to the GE and Citi numbers being better or less worse than expected?

Can we expect a rally tonight on the Dow/S&P and will that push us over 3800 on monday? Are they any other results we should be watching today?

Futures are up for now.

Best


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 April 2009)

Well, both Citi and GE have posted better than expected results.... No, I don't care what anyone's longer term outlook is, or how cooked the books are. I trade what's on offer and this might offer some more up. Let's see.


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## Uncle Festivus (17 April 2009)

An analyst (Charles Ortel) on bloomberg tv just trashed the results from GE (and Goldman): sees the need to raise more equity: global debt to GDP ratio's still massive! Rubbery figures to appease? After all the positive earnings, beating estimates, big profits etc, the Dow is little changed from 2 weeks ago? Quants work harder please  (Bollinger bandwidth indicating a sizable move soon?)


----------



## Aussiest (17 April 2009)

In relation to Citibank: Do you really think people will trade the reality of the news? I think they will trade the news regardless of the intricacies ('new' accounting rule).


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 April 2009)

Seems allot of people closed out there positions today in anticipation of a collapse. It may very well happen but I don't think it will be from Monday!
I agree with most of you who say it will retrace but I have the feeling it will go higher than most expect.
I think we all have the feeling its manufactured but I think the real rally will start from Monday and that's got me a bit worried. Again I am certainly no expert, I would love a retrace to pick up some more at these levels.

Have a great weekend all!

G


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## matty2.0 (17 April 2009)

Dead cat? 

More like a headless chook. 

Over-optimistic (however unjustified) rally ... will come back it will ...


----------



## >Apocalypto< (17 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I'm going back to 2007 (on chat), before IT started - IT is still going.
> 
> 
> 
> No, I don't recall that being my stance. I was skeptical about the claim that the USD was going to have a multi year advance. After your club made the call, it then subsequently tanked to 71.....your? *opinion again.. nothing true in that till its confirmed. Multi year advance? It's still at the same level it was in Jan 07.*





yes you did, posts in gold thread...... no we called it off the 71 area after it formed a base of support and the trend down went from normal to creeping, I never said muti year rally, again your wrong....

are you a compete fool? comparing a price now to jan 07 LOL mate your an idiot....... its like me comparing the xao to 2003 or 2005 or whenever it was the current level and saying well it's at the same level and done nothing since then!  LOL i am thinking now u got real lucky on the subprime call. 

I did respect u UF but after that I think very little of your trading ability.

after your last reply of utter rubbish my time with you is done......

(waves good bye)...............


----------



## GumbyLearner (18 April 2009)

Reality

I like Jim Willie. Not a bull****-artist by any stretch of the imagination!

*Banks Must Brace For New Losses*

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1239948720.php

One must give a tip of the hat to the Wall Street conmen for engineering a reasonably robust stock rally. The Dow and S&P were led by financials. The Financial Times out of London claims ‘no real money’ was behind the stock rally of over 20%. They must mean huge short covering, enhanced by pressure tactics from Wall Street brokerages themselves. They must mean Working Group For Financial Markets putting to work some of their ‘Black Bag’ money. They must mean influenced arbitrage games from preferred versus common shares, which harmed the public but enriched the insiders. Amazing how a better financial journal on US topics comes from outside the Untied States. A movement pervaded Lower Manhattan offices to formally call in all Citigroup shorted shares on loan. Whether legal or not, it helped cause a big bank stock rally. Other ‘C’ share games were played that enabled preferred shares to serve as collateral on common share shorts, as the plebeian shares descended to $1/share value. Never lose sight of the fact that Plunge Protection Team funds came in large part from missing $1.5 billion in Fannie Mae funds from 1988 to 2000, specifically out of the HUD offices in Houston (Papa Bush regional home) and in Oklahoma City (Clinton home region), whose funds keep America strong. Then you have all the absurd giant steps backwards to permit big banks to ignore Mark-to-Market and just conjure up asset values from indefensible models, with blessing from Financial Accounting Standards Board and the USCongress. This reform?



As citizens pay their income taxes, and observe the ‘Tea Parties’ around the nation, think deeper than the many plain shallow placards with great intention. The original Boston event prompted a Revolutionary War. The battle cry was over taxation without representation, a tax levy on tea to the colony, without a voice in the King George court. With the USCongress taking orders from Wall Street and having votes bought by lobbyists, the focus should be not on high taxes or low taxes, but taxation without proper representation by members of the USCongress. The august body in the USCongress has received countless million$ from Wall Street firms and Fannie Mae, along with dozens of other firms embroiled in the banking crisis that has destroyed the US banking system. Thousands of lobby groups have taken control of the USCongress, including the Council on Foreign Relations and AIPAC. My firm belief is that bribery is the way of the House & Senate. The people have little or no voice anymore, which is the basis of any charge of tyranny.


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## Uncle Festivus (18 April 2009)

>Apocalypto< said:


> yes you did, posts in gold thread...... no we called it off the 71 area after it formed a base of support and the trend down went from normal to creeping, I never said muti year rally, again your wrong....
> 
> are you a compete fool? comparing a price now to jan 07 LOL mate your an idiot....... its like me comparing the xao to 2003 or 2005 or whenever it was the current level and saying well it's at the same level and done nothing since then!  LOL i am thinking now u got real lucky on the subprime call.
> 
> ...




I'm sorry you feel that way.


----------



## matty2.0 (18 April 2009)

Play the ball, not the man. 
Get at ideas, not people.


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## MrBurns (18 April 2009)

What a jerk, he must be very young or perhaps just ignorant.


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## MRC & Co (18 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Nope, still waiting for a quick come-down, but I would really like to see a spike up into the 3800s (preferably high 800s) and hopefully the S&P does the same, hitting around 875s.




Here is my previous post of what I wanted to see for a top to this rally.

I called this rally from the start and put an end on it in the 3800s, thinking not only this would suit the charts, but thinking sentiment would change if we could hit this zone, my two biggets 'indicators'.  

All my 'indicators', chart patterns and sentiment, along with this extended move needing a retrace, have now been achieved.

We will gap up on Monday and from then on (bar a morning squeeze which won't move us too much higher, perhaps upto 3815-3825s on the SPI), we will come off, with a target of at least 3500 to begin with over the nxt several trading days.  

That's my call and will be trading it, good luck whatever you do.


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## Gordon Gekko (18 April 2009)

Keep you head up Uncle Festivus!

I enjoy reading your posts.

As long as there not to Bearish

ASX 200-4200 by Friday yeha!!!

Best

G


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## Grinder (18 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> I called this rally from the start and put an end on it in the 3800s, thinking not only this would suit the charts, but thinking sentiment would change if we could hit this zone, my two biggets 'indicators'.
> 
> All my 'indicators', chart patterns and sentiment, along with this extended move needing a retrace, have now been achieved.
> 
> ...




thinking along the same lines. Don't think it has the legs to move beyond 3900towards 4000, if it does find strength to push through supports will adjust accordingly as my view will have changed, but till then will stay as neutral as possible & look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight to get the XJO back to 3500s. will see.


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2009)

Grinder said:


> thinking along the same lines. Don't think it has the legs to move beyond 3900towards 4000, if it does find strength to push through supports will adjust accordingly as my view will have changed, but till then will stay as neutral as possible & look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight to get the XJO back to 3500s. will see.




A very wise assessment.

gg


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## MRC & Co (18 April 2009)

Grinder said:


> thinking along the same lines. Don't think it has the legs to move beyond 3900towards 4000, if it does find strength to push through supports will adjust accordingly as my view will have changed, but till then will stay as neutral as possible & look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight to get the XJO back to 3500s. will see.




So your saying you are thinking bearishly, but will remain as neutral as possible, and if it does push through 4000 you will turn bullish, but till any play out, *you will look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight?  What do you mean by that last part?*


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> So your saying you are thinking bearishly, but will remain as neutral as possible, and if it does push through 4000 you will turn bullish, but till any play out, *you will look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight?  What do you mean by that last part?*




Its called 

THE VIBE

MRC & Co.

THE VIBE.

gg


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## MRC & Co (18 April 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its called
> 
> THE VIBE
> 
> ...




lol, unfortunately, I don't get that either GG..............?


----------



## JeSSica WaBBit (19 April 2009)

THE VIBE - reference to the lawyer in 'The Castle'........


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## Grinder (19 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> *you will look for any weakness or a retracement to add some bearish weight?  What do you mean by that last part?*




I speak my own language & only trade options... so in a nutshell, a correction will have me adding puts as we approach high 3800s (bearish weight) to see a corrrection get us down to 3500s where I will try & get my deltas neutral again.


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## Uncle Festivus (19 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Keep you head up Uncle Festivus!
> 
> I enjoy reading your posts.
> 
> ...




Although it may not appear that way, I try to stay objective and impartial (often to my own trading detriment ), although I have obvious bias towards some directions based on my interpretation of data & supposedly facts. If that get's the label of 'bear' then no matter, who cares? 

The way I see it there's currently 2 types of charts going around, depending on which market you look at - the ascending wedge & the rollover top. In the old bull phase we would get a fresh round upwards after the pause, but with trigger fingers on the sell button it's a different ball game now?

So, with the "bazooka's" having been fired in anger, interest rates zero bound, quantitive easing still to show it's hand, and the bastions of money shuffling having just played the "earnings surprise" trump through creative and complicit accounting, what have they got left in the tank to keep this going above and beyond the already record bounce from the perceived lows?

The old "weight of money on the sidelines" paradigm? I don't know - anyone like to put forward a compelling bulls case? If I were looking at my job security, and watching 700k of my countrymen loosing theirs (every month!), and had some cash in the bank, taking a punt on the stock market wouldn't be high on my list of priorities.

On the mark to market rules, all it changes is _when_ the assets get to be valued, not _if,_ delaying to such a time to be more favourable? Still sitting on trillions of as yet not recorded losses? 

There is talk of having a non binding auction with these toxic assets such that the winner is not bound to the price and in fact can cancel the deal, but the winning price would stand as the accepted market price of the assets. Not much room for manipulation there eh? Fun & games indeed 

Do a search on "quant deleveraging" for some scary info indeed.


----------



## Beej (19 April 2009)

Inside Business on the ABC just stated this morning that the DOW rally (which is up over 6 weeks now) is the most sustained rally for 2 years and the best since 1938.

I really think that you can't label this a dead cat bounce - that arguments done.

What we should be discussing now is have we seen the bottom? Or does the inevitable retracement after such a good rally have a significant chance of making a new low, and therefore consigning this to be an overly optimistic bear market rally? Or will higher lows continue to be made and therefore show that this was the first stage of a longer term market recovery?

I don't know the answer to that question - and probably nobody does! However, what I do know is that either option is a POSSIBILITY, and therefore think the market needs to be traded accordingly, with an objective eye on either scenario.

Cheers,

Beej


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## MS+Tradesim (19 April 2009)

Beej said:


> However, what I do know is that either option is a POSSIBILITY, and therefore think the market needs to be traded accordingly, with an objective eye on either scenario.




Yep, it is good to be open to all possibilities, not just the ones we believe most likely. Otherwise we end up preferring our beliefs about what we think _*should*_ happen, over trading what _*is*_ happening. And discounting long shots is why we are here now...analysts didn't believe the worst would happen, so they over played risk and leverage.

I still think we have at least one more leg down but really, no-one knows. If we really believe anything can happen, then we can stay flexible - up, down or otherwise.


----------



## moXJO (19 April 2009)

I don't think there is any surprise of where the AUS market is now (I think someone called it roughly, on the first page). If it can be sustained is the big question. While the US fudges figures in the books we may be in a better position.

 Wouldn’t mind some peoples thoughts on this.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5160120/A-Copper-Standard-for-the-worlds-currency-system.html
China is stock pilling metals.


> The next industrial revolution is going to be led by hybrid cars, and that needs copper. You can see the subtle way that China is moving into 30 or 40 countries with resources," he said.
> The SRB has also been accumulating aluminium, zinc, nickel, and rarer metals such as titanium, indium (thin-film technology), rhodium (catalytic converters) and praseodymium (glass).
> 
> While it makes sense for China to take advantage of last year's commodity crash to restock cheaply, there is clearly more behind the move. "They are definitely buying metals to diversify out of US Treasuries and dollar holdings," said Jim Lennon, head of commodities at Macquarie Bank.



We are well positioned in Asia. And Ruddy doesn’t mind really licking boot when it comes to the Chinese. And with a massive Infrastructure program underway in China. It may keep resources alive and well. Position yourself on drops I suppose.


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## MRC & Co (19 April 2009)

Ah, gottcha Grinder!  

On the rest of the posts after, reckon you should stay open to possibilities, but ultimately, you still need to have a bias, or you should be spread trading.


----------



## GumbyLearner (19 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Although it may not appear that way, I try to stay objective and impartial (often to my own trading detriment ), although I have obvious bias towards some directions based on my interpretation of data & supposedly facts. If that get's the label of 'bear' then no matter, who cares?
> 
> The way I see it there's currently 2 types of charts going around, depending on which market you look at - the ascending wedge & the rollover top. In the old bull phase we would get a fresh round upwards after the pause, but with trigger fingers on the sell button it's a different ball game now?
> 
> ...




I'm of the same mind as Unc.

It is difficult to remain unbiased and impartial in a once in a lifetime pile-up 
like this this one. The manipulative media don't help either. 

I think the housing problem in the States has more legs and I think the roots of the systemic failure in the US remain unresolved.

This is from an article by Jim Willie from the Golden Jackass Newsletter

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0416.html

The two root causes of the deep historically unprecedented US bank losses from bond assets and credit portfolios are housing price declines and home foreclosures. For to claim the banks have stabilized without the home prices or forced foreclosures is absurd on its face. What has changed would please US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, market psychology. He favors inflation expectations for USTreasury Bonds over monetary growth, as the USDollar is debauched into oblivion. He favors consumer sentiment for the USEconomy over retail store shutdowns and shopping mall vacancies. The Wall Street maestros sold the investment community a bill of phony goods that will be evident by summer. They engineered a bank sector rally based on falsified earnings reports, orders by the USFed to keep the Bank Stress Tests secret until May, a return of the uptick short stock rule, and a return to valuing bank assets by creative methods based upon valuation models. Those hidden proprietary models contain a scad of silly assumptions like a 7.0% jobless rate. The March data already gave us 8.5% on that meter, but the reality-based Shadow Govt Statistics claim the jobless rate (when people without jobs are counted) is 17.0% actually.

Here's a preview lecture from by University of Massachusetts Professor

www.capitalismhitsthefan.com:fan


----------



## Grinder (19 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Ah, gottcha Grinder!
> 
> On the rest of the posts after, reckon you should stay open to possibilities, but ultimately, you still need to have a bias, or you should be spread trading.




Always spread trading, always hedged. Have a slight bias when I believe something is about to happen, as to either benefit from a big move or as protection from a big move. Nevertheless, like to remain neutral as possible as I'm a firm believer that the profits will take care of themselves if I manage the risk. 

Possible capital loss is alot worse than potential profit loss in my IMO.


----------



## Aussiest (19 April 2009)

Okay, i am going to weigh in on this one. I don't have any fancy technical analyses to support my view apart from common sense, dwindling volume and a reduction in sentiment, but the "vibe" tells me this rally is going to downturn shortly, within the next few trading days.

I do believe we have hit the bottom, but i think we will retrace to the 3,300 - 3,400 mark. Why?

Because it is all smoke and mirrors in the US - we have not yet resolved the systemic problems that lead to this crisis.


----------



## pilots (19 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Okay, i am going to weigh in on this one. I don't have any fancy technical analyses to support my view apart from common sense, dwindling volume and a reduction in sentiment, but the "vibe" tells me this rally is going to downturn shortly, within the next few trading days.
> 
> I do believe we have hit the bottom, but i think we will retrace to the 3,300 - 3,400 mark. Why?
> 
> Because it is all smoke and mirrors in the US - we have not yet resolved the systemic problems that lead to this crisis.




HOW TRUE, you can only print money for so long, what we have had to date is only 4play, the big bang is yet to come.


----------



## Aussiest (19 April 2009)

pilots said:


> HOW TRUE, you can only print money for so long, what we have had to date is only 4play, the big bang is yet to come.




I am no expert on this stuff, but my common sense tells me if there is not enough $$$ to go around, then something has to give.

An example is the possible downfall of GM. The Govt has given it 3 weeks (don't quote me, just an estimate) to drastically change it's operations. How can it be done in 3 weeks? Restructure, downsize staff. And then, is demand suddenly going to rise enough to support whatever staff they have left? I could be wrong, but it seems a fundamental flaw to expect a solid turnaround in such a short amount of time.

And, as a friend of mine so poignantly points out, have we seen the "true" figures yet? Are we still going off last years profit reports? Have we seen the new conditions reflected in the most recent financial reports (has the debt been "realised" yet)?

And, she reckons there will be more job losses, which will result in mortgage defaults and more toxic debt. Also, more businesses will go broke, which will result in toxic debt to other businesses and lenders.


----------



## sammy84 (19 April 2009)

Aussiest said:


> An example is the possible downfall of GM. The Govt has given it 3 weeks (don't quote me, just an estimate) to drastically change it's operations. How can it be done in 3 weeks?




I think what is expected there is a change of deal with its bondholders and the workers unions. This can be done in that time and save them a lot of money. 

Well this week will be fun. Bearish divergence is present, but who knows what will come out of the US to throw my such divergence out the window.


----------



## RayG (19 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Do a search on "quant deleveraging" for some scary info indeed.




Interesting, observations,  the program traders using quantitative analysis are mostly (Only 1 out of 80 made money) losing money during this rally.  

I would be interested to know why their computer models are failing, it might provide some insight to understanding exactly what forces are at play in the market.

His arguments about high speed liquidity went pretty much over my head I'm afraid, money is money as far I can tell, but then my knowledge of this sort of quant trading is very limited.  Maybe someone with more experience can help out here.

Thanks for pointing that out Uncle F, interesting times indeed.


----------



## ivant (19 April 2009)

a little cat tells me that institutional buying has seized a while ago in the pits of the NYSE and that sells are starting to come through. that would explain the exhaustion. whether its a long term move or not we will see


----------



## UPKA (19 April 2009)

RayG said:


> Interesting, observations,  the program traders using quantitative analysis are mostly (Only 1 out of 80 made money) losing money during this rally.
> 
> I would be interested to know why their computer models are failing, it might provide some insight to understanding exactly what forces are at play in the market.
> 
> ...




from wat I observbed, that isn't the case. I work for a software firm that provides these market makers etrading solutions, such mass quoting and auto responding functions using inbuild or custom pricing and vol models for pricing etc. the demand for the product has never been higher, especially in the APAC region. just to name a few... Tibra, IMC and Optiver are recruiting more quant traders than ever, right now 80% of all quant jobs on the market are coming from these firms. If liquidity is reducing, and worse is to come, I'm sure these guys will notice it first.


----------



## helicart (19 April 2009)

another global bear here. 

I might be wrong but I still think the US consumer is THE leading indicator of global trade. They are 20-25% of global gdp. 

Even when US banks start to loosen domestic credit, I can't see consumers clammering to get back to previous levels of debt fueled consumption, which will dampen business investment. 

China gdp is less than a 1/3 of the US, and 12% of US/EEC. 

That's a lot of consumption China need to pick up to cover the global slow down. 

They say the markets lead the economy. I say :bs:  they didn't lead sub prime.

Let's see how US earnings reports and unemployment unfold over the rest of the year. My view is they are going lower and staying there for a few years yet. 

Meredith Whitney is an excellent US finance analyst. 
Hugh Hendry was one of the most successful hedge fundies last year. 
They are both bearish for the long term. 

One things for certain....there's going to be a lot more USDs printed yet.


----------



## RayG (19 April 2009)

UPKA said:


> from wat I observbed, that isn't the case. I work for a software firm that provides these market makers etrading solutions, such mass quoting and auto responding functions using inbuild or custom pricing and vol models for pricing etc. the demand for the product has never been higher, especially in the APAC region. just to name a few... Tibra, IMC and Optiver are recruiting more quant traders than ever, right now 80% of all quant jobs on the market are coming from these firms. If liquidity is reducing, and worse is to come, I'm sure these guys will notice it first.




Hi UKPA, 

Thanks for that, I am pretty much totally ignorant about quant trading and how it works, but the information I was referring to is available here while I am always pretty skeptical about most of the doom and gloom blogs, the comment attributed to Merrill's  Mary Ann Bartels and the sharp pull back late March seems significant.

Then...

What happens if only the computers are left doing the trading against each other?

Regards

Whoops forgot the Barclay Capital Quote..  extracted from here



> The recent market rally that started on March 10th has been dramatic, unexpected, and actually quite painful for the vast majority of quantitative equity managers. Based on our conversations with numerous managers in recent weeks, we believe that most quantitative managers’ portfolios were not positioned in expectation of a rally. Of the nearly 80 managers we have talked to, only one manager said they were up since March 9th and the clear majority admitted to being notably down or stopped out on their positions. These managers were both long-only and long-short quant managers using market neutral and non-market neutral strategies, sector neutral and non-sector neutral strategies, longer term and intermediate term holding periods. It is fair to say that just about everyone is bewildered and trying to understand when this rally will end.


----------



## matty2.0 (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> another global bear here.
> 
> I might be wrong but I still think the US consumer is THE leading indicator of global trade. They are 20-25% of global gdp.
> 
> ...




Helicart, you make some great points here. Especially the one about markets being behind the 8-ball re; sub-prime back in 07/08. 

Yet, I think there's a difference between being oversold vs. being forward looking. I think the recent rally is a slight recovery from the former. 

Nonetheless, history has shown that it's less costly to be late than too early.


----------



## UPKA (20 April 2009)

matty2.0 said:


> Helicart, you make some great points here. Especially the one about markets being behind the 8-ball re; sub-prime back in 07/08.
> 
> Yet, I think there's a difference between being oversold vs. being forward looking. I think the recent rally is a slight recovery from the former.
> 
> Nonetheless, history has shown that it's less costly to be late than too early.




Another factor to consider, with the US interest rate at record low, and retail consumers losing their confidence in banks, the usual fixed income products are becoming less and less attractive, so where are they going to put their savings/spare cash in? This is not just limited to US, even China and the rest of the world, there are still plenty of cash around waiting to be invested. 

especially in the case of China, over the past 10-20yrs, while the west has borrowed and spent their money away, the east has bulked up their inventory -- cash. now with international pressure for china to re-value their currency and the central bank's expansionary monetary policy, one would be stupid leaving their cash in the bank and watch it to "devalue" over time. 

And this is where Australia comes into the picture. we have some of the most desired assets wanted by the Chinese, with established infrastructure and stable democratic government compared to their investments in Africa. Along with the plummeting resource price, our assets are becoming very very attractive to the Chinese. 

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25357473-462,00.html

If there's a continuing interest from the Chinese, we should see our economy and possibly stock market escape from the worst of the slump.
The only thing stand in the way is the government and their foreign investment policy.


----------



## MrBurns (20 April 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Hey Mr Burns seems like Charlie was right.
> 
> BSL up another 25c today.
> 
> You should of held for a profit....lol




Yeah right Charlie - 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/20/2546898.htm




> Regional Australia is being hit hardest by the current recession, and it shows, with double digit unemployment rates in many parts of the country.
> 
> It's easy to see why. When Four Corners started filming in Wollongong, the crew went to the industrial complex of Port Kembla to gauge economic activity - but there was none.
> 
> ...


----------



## seasprite (20 April 2009)

This rally seems to be playing out on a compressed version of 2002 , timewise. It would be interesting to see if Bank of America exceeds it's estimated  earnings of 4cps. Boeing and McDonalds to report this week as well. 

 I'm with Aussiest  with XJO to 3500 and DJIA to 6900 . However in the meantime I imagine the S&P 500 may break through the 875 mark after being sucked in to my picking of 915ish then down we go.


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## Uncle Festivus (20 April 2009)

UPKA said:


> And this is where Australia comes into the picture. we have some of the most desired assets wanted by the Chinese, with established infrastructure and stable democratic government compared to their investments in Africa. Along with the plummeting resource price, our assets are becoming very very attractive to the Chinese.




When China releases statistics I apply my new filter - _halve the good news & double the bad news_


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## helicart (20 April 2009)

UPKA said:


> And this is where Australia comes into the picture. we have some of the most desired assets wanted by the Chinese, with established infrastructure and stable democratic government compared to their investments in Africa. Along with the plummeting resource price, our assets are becoming very very attractive to the Chinese.




At this point, China is trying to acquire mining companies, not increase their purchases of the raw materials mined (apart from copper). The more equity China has in AUssie mining companies, the poorer Australia will become.........a greater portion of Aussie mining profits and company growth goes overseas.....that's wealth we don't get to spend on infrastructure, research and development, big houses, educating our children....

China does intend ramping up state funded infrastructure building, but it would be wise for them to buy foreign mining companies first before sending all that related cash overseas. 

There's no easy way out of this for the west. China has the cash and labour. The West has obesity, debt, money printing presses, welfare mentality, low birth rate, and a culture of outsourcing anything that requires getting out of a chair. The west has some harsh light of day coming its way.


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## Trembling Hand (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> The West has obesity, debt, money printing presses, welfare mentality, low birth rate, and a culture of outsourcing anything that requires getting out of a chair. The west has some harsh light of day coming its way.


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## UPKA (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> At this point, China is trying to acquire mining companies, not increase their purchases of the raw materials mined (apart from copper). The more equity China has in AUssie mining companies, the poorer Australia will become.........a greater portion of Aussie mining profits and company growth goes overseas.....that's wealth we don't get to spend on infrastructure, research and development, big houses, educating our children....
> 
> China does intend ramping up state funded infrastructure building, but it would be wise for them to buy foreign mining companies first before sending all that related cash overseas.
> 
> There's no easy way out of this for the west. China has the cash and labour. The West has obesity, debt, money printing presses, welfare mentality, low birth rate, and a culture of outsourcing anything that requires getting out of a chair. The west has some harsh light of day coming its way.





no doubt abt the outlooking of Australia's future if this is the path we are walking on. however, in terms of equity growth which is wat this thread's topic is, I still hold a bullish view short term.


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## wonderrman (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> There's no easy way out of this for the west. China has the cash and labour. The West has obesity, debt, money printing presses, welfare mentality, low birth rate, and a culture of outsourcing anything that requires getting out of a chair. The west has some harsh light of day coming its way.




That is very good and sums up my thoughts exactly. Economically, the global economy is quite screwed, either way debt has to go and it will be painful. China is going to be ready to pounce. 

There is quite a good article on China and its history authored my Armstrong over here http://d.scribd.com/docs/2n1b52p41n9yzy8aljwf.pdf. It is about 18 pages long. A good read.

w


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## matty2.0 (20 April 2009)

well gold prices are up ... maybe that explains where people are putting their money as an alternative to treasuries ... especially US treasuries.


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## aleckara (20 April 2009)

UPKA said:


> especially in the case of China, over the past 10-20yrs, while the west has borrowed and spent their money away, the east has bulked up their inventory -- cash. now with international pressure for china to re-value their currency and the central bank's expansionary monetary policy, one would be stupid leaving their cash in the bank and watch it to "devalue" over time.
> 
> And this is where Australia comes into the picture. we have some of the most desired assets wanted by the Chinese, with established infrastructure and stable democratic government compared to their investments in Africa. Along with the plummeting resource price, our assets are becoming very very attractive to the Chinese.
> 
> ...




We may see this in the short term but in the long term I hate to say it - we can say that in Australia a lot of desired assets will reside in this country. What we can't say is that we will own these desirable assets. The Saudi's and other oil nations are increasingly interested in our food assets, and China is interested in our resource assets.

The rate that China with its centrally planned government is using this crisis to talk about their own currency, to break America and Europe's (the western cultures) dominance on the world even now tells me that unlike the Japanese the Chinese all along had different intentions. If they become the superpower of the world and their culture spreads across the globe I would find it interesting how the world will look like. A lot more armies in countries, a lot more control of the people? I don't know.

In the future Australia may just be land to extract value of for foreign nations.

I hope that this doesn't occur. I really do. In the end though debt is a nations greatest enemy. I'm sure that when people take on debt they don't think that they will have to give up so much.


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## jonojpsg (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> There's no easy way out of this for the west. China has the cash and labour. The West has obesity, debt, money printing presses, welfare mentality, low birth rate, and a culture of outsourcing anything that requires getting out of a chair. The west has some harsh light of day coming its way.




Funny you should point this out - I teach at a high school and was just talking this morning about the tendency of kids to want to do as little as possible in terms of hard work.  I commented that having a generation coming through who have that sort of attitude means that we as a country aren't too far away from fading into obscurity - note that I'm only 36 so only talking about the generation below me.  Sorry a bit OT but worth noting IMO


----------



## helicart (20 April 2009)

matty2.0 said:


> well gold prices are up ... maybe that explains where people are putting their money as an alternative to treasuries ... especially US treasuries.




Matt you must be referring to gold etf's on the asx. 
Gold in USD is actually down today. The upwards movement in the etf is due to the AUD moving down. 
But gold has been moving down for weeks now. I was trading gold (long) from Sept 08 to early March. Since, I have open shorts on nyse GLD and HUI. I don't see gold moving up significantly (above 975) until some new shock drives money out of stocks and US treasuries. That mightn't happen anytime soon.

This will be an interesting week. I see the Dow pushing against medium term resistance this week. It might flail around a bit over the next 2 weeks not knowing what to do. Then it will either push through timidly, or pull back, slightly at first. All speculation though......best to just watch for momentum trades imho....and stay on the sidelines until then.


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## helicart (20 April 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Funny you should point this out - I teach at a high school and was just talking this morning about the tendency of kids to want to do as little as possible in terms of hard work.  I commented that having a generation coming through who have that sort of attitude means that we as a country aren't too far away from fading into obscurity - note that I'm only 36 so only talking about the generation below me.  Sorry a bit OT but worth noting IMO




I am a baby boomer and don't blame Gen YZ for being slack. 
I blame boomer parents. They let the rot set in through the 60s and 70s. Spoilt their kids rotten. Blindly swallowed too much Leftist and enviro ideology without any understanding of how a country generates and keeps wealth. 

The pendulum has swung too far in the west, turning us into undisciplined overly emotive dependents on Big Brother govt. The Coalition and Labor have been equally lacking in vision for the future. Australia should have specialized in key strategic industries 40 years ago. Sth Korea, Finland, Ireland, Sweden all did so with predictable results.

There's never been and never will be a free lunch canteen.....and anyone who outsources personal responsibility to big govt will realize their mistake too late. 

rant off


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## Sunder (20 April 2009)

If the majority of us are bearish about the future, does that mean now is the time to be accumulating?


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## GumbyLearner (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> I am a baby boomer and don't blame Gen YZ for being slack.
> I blame boomer parents. They let the rot set in through the 60s and 70s. Spoilt their kids rotten. Blindly swallowed too much Leftist and enviro ideology without any understanding of how a country generates and keeps wealth.
> 
> The pendulum has swung too far in the west, turning us into undisciplined overly emotive dependents on Big Brother govt. The Coalition and Labor have been equally lacking in vision for the future. Australia should have specialized in key strategic industries 40 years ago. Sth Korea, Finland, Ireland, Sweden all did so with predictable results.
> ...




I blame cheaply available credit, the mirage of temptation and ill-discipline that many people have exercised in accessing it. 

I agree the parents of baby boomers are just as much to blame as Gen Y or Z.

But when a professional goes driving down the road in a new sportscar I don't think of it in terms of wealth, I want to see the loan document from the bank or the hire-purchase agreement they entered into. The same goes for people who have borrowed up to 100% with nothing down for a newly built 4 bedroom estate home in the burbs or a highly inflated one in an established inner-city surburb.  This unsustainable borrowing is to blame.

Many that lived through the Great Depression realised that they should have lived within their means. Today's society wants more for less and is going to get the smack of this century for not reigning in their use of cheap credit and lack of saving.

I agree that Governments of all flavours have played a part in creating this credit crunch phenomena. Take the western provinces of Canada as an example. During the past few decades the Canadian Governments encouraged drift net fishing for years in places like British Columbia and Newfoundland. So boats went further out to increase their catch. This meant those willing to do so could build bigger houses and improve their standard of living. That's all fine in the microcosm of a neighborhood. But then the Government step in and try to enlarge the tax base on increases in local property values and increases in the availability of local services. This eventually resulted in Joe Blow next door having to keep up with the Jones in order to purchase a local property that is now far more expensive to purchase. Also, his local taxes and living costs increased, so he had to buy a bigger boat and go further out to sea to catch his quota of fish to sustain himself within his local area. 

The fishing industry in Western Canada has now been devastated and destroyed beyond repair. In turn so have the livelihoods of many of it's residents. Why you ask? 

Because maximum sustainable yield is only true to a point, when you have stupid governments/businesses demanding too much from citizens/consumers. 
And I agree with you the green movement can point the finger at the fisherman if they like but I prefer to firmly point the finger at those who ultimately profited through taxes. Fishing can be an economically sustainable industry but not when it's been used and abused as a porkbarrel fund for the incumbent's next election campaign or in collaboration with "keeping up with the Jones cheap credit mentality" of the private sector. 

Was there a need to fish that much? Did these fisherman just try to improve their standard of living and pay taxes to the powers that would eventually provide them the dole?

The same analogy can be applied to this crisis IMO. Unsustainable growth and unfortunately many will be thrown on the scrap heap again.

Just my 

Rant over


----------



## helicart (20 April 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Was there a need to fish that much? Did these fisherman just try to improve their standard of living and pay taxes to the powers that would eventually provide them the dole?
> 
> Just my
> 
> Rant over




I like the use of the fishing anecdote. It highlights that growth is not sustainable forever. There is a ceiling on how much production and consumption can be done with finite resources. 

One of my pet hates are these wealth creation spruikers who say we can have it all if only we have the right mind set......they really are ignorant twats. If 6 billion people had gas guzzlers and mcmansions, we'd be out of oil by....say 2013. and electric cars aren't going to help because lithium is a scarce resource too.

Apart from having it in for the extreme green movement, I still respect the need to conserve natural resources. The greens just don't balance economic and conservation considerations. 

Interestingly, a lot of the cheap credit floating around was due to Japan's surplus and domestic deflation......which caused the carry trade.....in addition to the stupid leverage allowed by congress in the USA. 30 and 40 to 1. These idiots don't seem to get that leverage is a form of money - credit money, that causes asset bubbles.... etc etc blah blah  grumpy old fart rant off.


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## CanOz (20 April 2009)

The fact remains that regardless of what Western societies ever do ever again, *China if it continues at this rate of growth will need an entire new planet earth to satisfy its hunger for resources by 2050.*


Cheers,


CanOz


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## sammy84 (20 April 2009)

CanOz said:


> The fact remains that regardless of what Western societies ever do ever again, *China if it continues at this rate of growth will need an entire new planet earth to satisfy its hunger for resources by 2050.*z




Are you suggesting its time that we start looking for companies outside of earth to invest in?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (20 April 2009)

helicart said:


> Interestingly, a lot of the cheap credit floating around was due to Japan's surplus and domestic deflation......which caused the carry trade.....in addition to the stupid leverage allowed by congress in the USA. 30 and 40 to 1. These idiots don't seem to get that leverage is a form of money - credit money, that causes asset bubbles.... etc etc blah blah  grumpy old fart rant off.




Exactly, not much said about this, but this has been the financial lube for our debt binge & hence [insert asset bubble here] always goes up over time. 2 generations have a rude shock coming to them soon?

GE Corp about to make the news soon......for the usual reasons......




CanOz said:


> The fact remains that regardless of what Western societies ever do ever again, *China if it continues at this rate of growth will need an entire new planet earth to satisfy its hunger for resources by 2050.*
> 
> 
> Cheers,
> ...




Canoz, what's it like on the ground there - is there more unemployed, is the stimulis going to fuel excesses ie glut's of materials? Or have they de-coupled into a self fulfilling demand economy. Can we believe the government stats?

Somehow this is tied into the other thread on too many people in the world..


----------



## Beej (20 April 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> I blame cheaply available credit, the mirage of temptation and ill-discipline that many people have exercised in accessing it.
> 
> I agree the parents of baby boomers are just as much to blame as Gen Y or Z.
> 
> But when a professional goes driving down the road in a new sportscar I don't think of it in terms of wealth, I want to see the loan document from the bank or the hire-purchase agreement they entered into. The same goes for people who have borrowed up to 100% with nothing down for a newly built 4 bedroom estate home in the burbs or a highly inflated one in an established inner-city surburb.  This unsustainable borrowing is to blame.




You know, this comes across as being a little bit jealous and/or bitter towards those who may have been more successful for whatever reason? Eg, not everyone who drives down the street in a sports car, or purchases an "expensive" (maybe for you) house in the inner city, has done so with bucket loads of borrowed money. Many people I know have bought marque sports cars and "expensive" houses for cash, or bulk cash (50-80% of cost) plus very moderate borrowing in the case of houses. That cash is what they saved, earned, and/or gained through returns from other investments etc. Likewise for people that build their dream home out in the burbs - many have saved for years and years, already owned a house that they sold etc. Very few purchase assets of this kind on 100% borrowed funds, yet world views such as that expressed above suggests a view that the majority have done this! If this is what you truly believe, then I would argue that is a very naive view of the world.

Recessions certainly sort out the chafe though! After a recession you could be almost certain that the next expensive sports car you see is owned outright and not on a lease or hire purchase 

Anyway back on topic now.....

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Beej (20 April 2009)

Actually just to get back on topic - attached is an interesting chart I found. It shows the annual percentage returns of the All-Ords Accumulation Index going back to 1900. It is interesting to note that the worst sell-offs (over either a 1 or 2 year period) have almost inevitably been followed by a year of stellar returns.

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## ivant (20 April 2009)

Beej said:


> You know, this comes across as being a little bit jealous and/or bitter towards those who may have been more successful for whatever reason? Eg, not everyone who drives down the street in a sports car, or purchases an "expensive" (maybe for you) house in the inner city, has done so with bucket loads of borrowed money. Many people I know have bought marque sports cars and "expensive" houses for cash, or bulk cash (50-80% of cost) plus very moderate borrowing in the case of houses. That cash is what they saved, earned, and/or gained through returns from other investments etc. Likewise for people that build their dream home out in the burbs - many have saved for years and years, already owned a house that they sold etc. Very few purchase assets of this kind on 100% borrowed funds, yet world views such as that expressed above suggests a view that the majority have done this! If this is what you truly believe, then I would argue that is a very naive view of the world.
> 
> Recessions certainly sort out the chafe though! After a recession you could be almost certain that the next expensive sports car you see is owned outright and not on a lease or hire purchase
> 
> ...




agreed on this point! even then, the argument against credit is a little naive. credit/leverage is very powerful. its more a matter of how you use it and how much of it you use. the west has been built on leverage. this does not mean it will fall due to the "deleveraging process". sure we get some falls, and statistically its likely that the 14000 DJIA level wont be passed for another 23 or so years (at least according to Hendry), but that means nothing about the actual use of credit. by the way in terms of that figure, seems to be time to buy japanese stocks.


----------



## ivant (20 April 2009)

Beej said:


> Actually just to get back on topic - attached is an interesting chart I found. It shows the annual percentage returns of the All-Ords Accumulation Index going back to 1900. It is interesting to note that the worst sell-offs (over either a 1 or 2 year period) have almost inevitably been followed by a year of stellar returns.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Thanks for that, i think i will be dissecting this tonight


----------



## helicart (20 April 2009)

Beej said:


> Actually just to get back on topic - attached is an interesting chart I found. It shows the annual percentage returns of the All-Ords Accumulation Index going back to 1900. It is interesting to note that the worst sell-offs (over either a 1 or 2 year period) have almost inevitably been followed by a year of stellar returns.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Beej, a couple of gotchas. 

- the index doesn't account for companies entering and exiting it....though admittedly, today you could invest in STW and overcome that pitfall.

- check a similar index for the Dow or Nikkei. 

- it doesn't pay to totally ignore the fundamentals. there's a lot that is different this time - means of production outsourced overseas, fx, Australia's historically high net foreign liabilities, growing dependency on foreign wholesale borrowing to sustain asset prices at current levels, house prices at >6x median wage, casualization of the workforce, low birth rate etc, etc. There's a lot of obstacles to the US and Australia getting back to previous levels of growth in gdp per capita.


----------



## GumbyLearner (20 April 2009)

Beej said:


> You know, this comes across as being a little bit jealous and/or bitter towards those who may have been more successful for whatever reason? Eg, not everyone who drives down the street in a sports car, or purchases an "expensive" (maybe for you) house in the inner city, has done so with bucket loads of borrowed money. Many people I know have bought marque sports cars and "expensive" houses for cash, or bulk cash (50-80% of cost) plus very moderate borrowing in the case of houses. That cash is what they saved, earned, and/or gained through returns from other investments etc. Likewise for people that build their dream home out in the burbs - many have saved for years and years, already owned a house that they sold etc. Very few purchase assets of this kind on 100% borrowed funds, yet world views such as that expressed above suggests a view that the majority have done this! If this is what you truly believe, then I would argue that is a very naive view of the world.
> 
> Recessions certainly sort out the chafe though! After a recession you could be almost certain that the next expensive sports car you see is owned outright and not on a lease or hire purchase
> 
> ...




I can see how the sportscar example is a bit of a generalisation. Point taken Beej.

I can use any number of other examples.
Such as a young person maxing out a credit card on consumer goods they cannot afford. Like a young lady who might want to buy fashion items or a young buck on salary wanting to buy a new holden/ford to impress his mates at the factory. All I'm saying is what happens when these people lose their jobs. The same example could be applied to the business owner who has to call in the receivers because no-one has wages or access to credit to buy his stuff anymore.

All I'm trying to say is this rally has no substance, it has been fueled by US Banks laden with debt.

The property boom has been substantial in the US as well as OZ. Although prosperity in OZ has had a greater connection and run parallel to the mining boom. Also if you look at the FHOG grants over the last few months from ABS stats you will notice the majority have no money down. Also how many households are paying down mortgages with credit cards ATM. A small percentage?? 

China will continue to buy Aussie Commods real cheap! But our economy is inextricably linked to the US anyway, so when the bear comes growling back look out below!

There is no envy on my part at all. But from my contacts in Melbourne I hear the repossessed luxury car auction trade has done extremely well in the past 12 months. I certainly envy those guys, what a great business to have in times like this.

But just to stay on topic. Still firmly believe this is a Dead Cat and would go short financials if the ban wasn't in place. 

Here's a great interview with Jim Rogers telling everyone the reality of bank bailouts. I don't think he is envious of anyone maybe a bit pissed-off at stupid government decisions. Just go 2 minutes into the Youtube link. The bankers keeping their maseratis, lamborghinis or ferraris   



If I had the means to buy a Ferrari, I wouldn't buy one anyway because they don't make a model with a cup-holder:


----------



## kincella (20 April 2009)

the same people involved in the 'manufactored financial crisis" are now manufactoring a financial recovery....
anyone feeling just  a little bit duped by this fiasco...its been well organised

oh, and all the old names are still there whether ceo's or pollies....well most of them...

extract........

The strategy of forcing political change through orchestrated crisis. The "Cloward-Piven Strategy" seeks to hasten the fall of capitalism by overloading the government bureaucracy with a flood of impossible demands, thus pushing society into crisis and economic collapse.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html


----------



## GumbyLearner (20 April 2009)

the same people involved in the 'manufactored financial crisis" are now manufactoring a financial recovery....
anyone feeling just  a little bit duped by this fiasco...its been well organised

oh, and all the old names are still there whether ceo's or pollies....well most of them...

extract........

Precisely kincella


----------



## Gordon Gekko (20 April 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> the same people involved in the 'manufactored financial crisis" are now manufactoring a financial recovery....
> anyone feeling just  a little bit duped by this fiasco...its been well organised
> 
> oh, and all the old names are still there whether ceo's or pollies....well most of them...
> ...




Has it every been any different?
Some win some lose.
If your not on the inside your on the outside.

Here is a chart that may bring those of you that are optimistic like myself some relief.

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/4/20/saupload_recession_change.PNG

Best

G


----------



## Gordon Gekko (20 April 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> I can see how the sportscar example is a bit of a generalisation. Point taken Beej.
> 
> I can use any number of other examples.
> Such as a young person maxing out a credit card on consumer goods they cannot afford. Like a young lady who might want to buy fashion items or a young buck on salary wanting to buy a new holden/ford to impress his mates at the factory. All I'm saying is what happens when these people lose their jobs. The same example could be applied to the business owner who has to call in the receivers because no-one has wages or access to credit to buy his stuff anymore.
> ...







That intervew is like 6 months old.
I like Jim rogers but the information might be a little dated.

Best
G


----------



## GumbyLearner (20 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> That intervew is like 6 months old.
> I like Jim rogers but the information might be a little dated.
> 
> Best
> G




Yeah it's about 2 months old. 

The abstract has not changed though.
Next will be commercial real estate, prime mortgages, Alt-A's,
credit cards etc..

Unsustainable.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (20 April 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Yeah it's about 2 months old.
> 
> The abstract has not changed though.
> Next will be commercial real estate, prime mortgages, Alt-A's,
> ...




Yeah just thought I would mention the date as he says he is shorting IBM in that interview. I believe they are releasing results tomorrow and I would not want anyone to get stuffed around thinking its current. They should realease awesome less worse then expected green shoots yada yada, so shorting may or may not be a good idea on IBM tomorrow.

Best
G


----------



## >Apocalypto< (21 April 2009)

The ending diagonal has been completed.

Now looking for this to continue down with three minor targets. We have a major support point at 800 and a tad under. The 800 price point is a strong weekly support range and could act as a resistance point if the price moves on to it.

Wether this pattern completion will renew the current over all double top pattern to continue as the major driving pattern is yet to be confirmed now. A move back under 800 with that point acting as resistance to the buying could signal that the double top is still in play and a very low target could be reached like 300!

Time to watch, also to keep in mind reporting in the US is on tonight and expectation is the word of the day.

Cheers,


----------



## wonderrman (29 April 2009)

Very mixed signals at the moment with the length of this "bounce". On one hand an ascending triangle is forming with what looks to be a consolidation phase before a breakout and advance to ~4400. But there is also some negative divergence with indicators. It is confusing times for the young trading eye I would prefer to be on the side lines until some more readable action occurs. W.


----------



## Ardyne (29 April 2009)

I pretty much see the same this. Sitting on your hands until the market shows you what its gonna do is a good thing.


----------



## GumbyLearner (29 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Yeah just thought I would mention the date as he says he is shorting IBM in that interview. I believe they are releasing results tomorrow and I would not want anyone to get stuffed around thinking its current. They should realease awesome less worse then expected green shoots yada yada, so shorting may or may not be a good idea on IBM tomorrow.
> 
> Best
> G




*Microsoft announces first ever drop in sales*

http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2241065/microsoft-looses-revenue-first

Microsoft has experienced their worst quarter since they were publicly listed in 1986.

I suppose it's not so bad for a company that has garnered an almost monopolistic protection from consecutive US administrations. And spent a stack on lawyers in intellectual property disputes with other industry players.

Recovery?  bull**** *cough*


----------



## Aussiest (29 April 2009)

I'm actually thinking the 'dead cat bounce' was a correction and that the real dead cat bounce is happening now. The irrationality, buying for no reason. Wait & see


----------



## Nero64 (2 May 2009)

Like most off you I am waivering between bullishness and bearishness. When will this rally end? Will there be a mild correction or depression style engulfing correction? will there be a correction at all?(Hell we're going to 10000 baby)

A couple of sayings might be appropriate:

"History always repeats itself in the Markets" 

"Sell in May and go away and don't come back to St Ledger's day"

The similarities between last years rally and this years rally are quite striking. 

For instance :

After several months of the DOW market going down it finally bottomed on Monday the 9th March 2008 at 11740 day close. 

This year it bottomed on Monday the 10th March at 6547 day close. 

The Dow then peaked on Friday 2nd May 2008 at 13058 close

Yesterday, 1st May (A Friday) the market closed at 8212. 

2008 Rally went for 54 days
2009 Rally has gone for 54 days. 

Next week the US government reveals the results of the bank stress tests. Could this be the turning point? To say yes would be sheer speculation but similarities to last year are there. 

My advice is to see how the US markets react to these stress tests. Don't go commiting all your money into longs on Monday. 

In the markets and in life it may be sunny in the foreground but the background is dark and scary. Likewise it may be dark and scary in the foreground but sunny and wonderful in the background. To ignore the background would be foolish. 

Good luck!


----------



## Aussiest (2 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> In the markets and in life it may be sunny in the foreground but the background is dark and scary. Likewise it may be dark and scary in the foreground but sunny and wonderful in the background. To ignore the background would be foolish.
> Good luck!




That is great! Although i slightly disagree with the 'history always repeats itself' statement. There are too many human variables at stake to say that with any certainty!


----------



## Nyden (2 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Like most off you I am waivering between bullishness and bearishness. When will this rally end? Will there be a mild correction or depression style engulfing correction? will there be a correction at all?(Hell we're going to 10000 baby)
> 
> A couple of sayings might be appropriate:
> 
> ...




Well, I don't nkow where it's heading; but to eternally follow history is quite foolish as well. Yes, the DOW fell for several months, then rallied, then crashed again - but do you believe this will happen again this time, and next year, and the year after, and so on? Eventually this will obviously break, and eventually the rally will stick. It may well be this time, it may not be. Either way, I'm sitting very pretty, and simply have no need, nor reason to sell :


----------



## MACCA350 (5 May 2009)

What a day on the asx.........up about 3% flying past 3800 points  
Futures looking to continue the trend over 3900 points...........things seem bullish, will we continue and hit 4500 points

cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (5 May 2009)

There's a lot of brave people calling March 6, 2009 All Ords 3145 the bottom. I hope they are right, but I think we are yet to see the full flow on impact from rising unemployment and the retrace in home building/developments.


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 May 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> I think we are yet to see the full flow on impact from rising unemployment and the retrace in home building/developments.



And do you expect to see the bottom the day after that news is out?


----------



## Gordon Gekko (5 May 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> There's a lot of brave people calling March 6, 2009 All Ords 3145 the bottom. I hope they are right, but I think we are yet to see the full flow on impact from rising unemployment and the retrace in home building/developments.






I still belive that 3145 is/was the bottom but I have recentley sold half my position and will be happy to sit 50/50 cash/stock in anticipation of a pull back.

If it does not happen well then at least I will sleep better at night. I was over weight shares anyway. $200 in the bank and every other cent I've worked for in the past 5 years for tied up in the Aussie market. I have not lost a cent other than brokerage so thats a plus and I am still in a good position for the next Bull when ever that may be.
I still feel there is further upside but now the risk of a pull back imho out weigh any greed that I may be feeling.

Best
G


----------



## MACCA350 (5 May 2009)

Worst four bear markets update






cheers


----------



## wonderrman (5 May 2009)

I thought I would post this chart which I found at Decison Point. All though the indicators at the moment are showing divergence and suggesting we are in an over bought stage, it dosn't necessarily mean we have to experience a decline to get this cleared. There has been two instances in the past few years were overbought conditions were cleared by going higher.

One must also remember that retracements of 35, 50 and 62% are common in bull/bear markets.

 Wonder.


----------



## Trevor_S (5 May 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I have not lost a cent other than brokerage




No CG to be taxed at your marginal rate then ?


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 May 2009)

I`m not at all happy about this market continuing to rise as I do feel I missed the bottom of the market.


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 May 2009)

The Cat Has 10 Lives!!!


----------



## jersey10 (5 May 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I still belive that 3145 is/was the bottom but I have recentley sold half my position and will be happy to sit 50/50 cash/stock in anticipation of a pull back.
> 
> If it does not happen well then at least I will sleep better at night. I was over weight shares anyway. $200 in the bank and every other cent I've worked for in the past 5 years for tied up in the Aussie market. I have not lost a cent other than brokerage so thats a plus and I am still in a good position for the next Bull when ever that may be.
> I still feel there is further upside but now the risk of a pull back imho out weigh any greed that I may be feeling.
> ...




i'm doing the opposite.  pulled half my money out about 3 weeks ago because i thought a pull back was due.  Am more confident that it will go on with it now than i was 3 weeks ago so the money has gone back in this morning.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (5 May 2009)

jersey10 said:


> i'm doing the opposite.  pulled half my money out about 3 weeks ago because i thought a pull back was due.  Am more confident that it will go on with it now than i was 3 weeks ago so the money has gone back in this morning.




Be fearfull when others are greedy..........

Best of luck

G


----------



## jersey10 (5 May 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Be fearfull when others are greedy..........
> 
> 
> G




i was 3 weeks ago.  

Now the charts say lets go to 4400 so that will do me.  Stops are in so if i'm wrong i'll take the medicine and congratulate you on picking it correctly.

Good luck to you also, i think


----------



## Glen48 (5 May 2009)

Who is predicting what about the Stress test for the Banks? Will they tell the truth and say we are insolvent or doctor up the figures and let the suckers keep going and the Dow to hit 9K+


----------



## jersey10 (5 May 2009)

Glen48 said:


> Who is predicting what about the Stress test for the Banks? Will they tell the truth and say we are insolvent or doctor up the figures and let the suckers keep going and the Dow to hit 9K+




i reckon more chance of option B.


----------



## brty (5 May 2009)

All the rumors are how the banks are OK re the stress tests. Of course all that has happened is that the parameters of the tests were set so that the banks could pass them.

It is standard political stuff, never ask a question unless you know the answer.

This is probably a case of buy the rumor, sell the news, especially if the news is as good as the rumors.

brty


----------



## nikemi (5 May 2009)

brty said:


> All the rumors are how the banks are OK re the stress tests. Of course all that has happened is that the parameters of the tests were set so that the banks could pass them.
> 
> It is standard political stuff, never ask a question unless you know the answer.
> 
> ...




When the time is right whether the news is good or bad or even not true is irrelevant IMO. One will recall that this whole rally started with a leaked memo from Citi, saying they were profitable, i don't remember them being flush at their results but no one looked back.... Markets had to rally so companies can go to them for more capital..... when the time is right for markets to reverse they will do so with whatever news good or bad. however i have noticed that at a proximity of market reversal there is more and more member of ASF that start being unsettled with whether trend will continue or reverse which seems to be the case again. The ASF indicator


----------



## Nyden (5 May 2009)

brty said:


> This is probably a case of buy the rumor, sell the news, especially if the news is as good as the rumors.
> 
> brty




The amount of people still *hoping* for bad news, shorting the market, and/or hoping for markets to hit new lows, still seem to outweigh those that are actually enjoying these gains. Therefore, at least in my opinion - there are still many waves of new people to continue driving this rally. 

3 Weeks ago, the bears were 'ready for new lows', now they're only hoping for 'em :


----------



## So_Cynical (5 May 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> I`m not at all happy about this market continuing to rise as I do feel I missed the bottom of the market.




Many Bears feeling that way i suspect....even if there's a new bottom to come its still 
a great rally...its like buy anything and watch it go up.

I half got the bottom..sold to early twice now...left the profits in for the longer term.

there's still some good stocks under performing the index.


----------



## Glen48 (5 May 2009)

Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.


----------



## Nero64 (5 May 2009)

> Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.




You have to see it realistically. 

For our market to get back down to 3145, BHP, RIO and the 4 big banks have to pull it down as they make up the bulk of the index. 

I don't see the CRB index hitting its lows again, even if it does BHP will have to go down $8 atleast and Rio it was at $29 to bring the index down to 3300. There is a lot of money behind both these now with people buying in the dips.

Likewise institutions have poured a lot into the banks. They would have to pull back 25-30% or so. 

Speculation is coming into the market now, with oil going higher, even though fundamentals are weak. Oil reserves are in hugh supply. 

And if oil goes up so will Woodside, Santos and Origin. These 3 between them can pull up the index if the banks go down. Add on Newcrest and Lihr these will help the index as well. 

What is going to be the catalyst, the panic to cause redemptions and people dropping shares again like they did last Novemeber. Then again the market drifted in May 2008 without a catalyst so it is possible. 

I have to say I think the bottom has been reached. I was expecting to see 2800 like many of you so was caught a bit off guard. Averaged down a bit, bought some underperformers in Nov and held too long and didn't have the capital to get a good portion of the upside. 

I expect a pullback, but not back down to March lows. 

Just another opinion. Lucky I don't have my own newsletter and charge people $650 a year to read it. Huntley for example, he has picked more false bottoms than Cramer. 

Signed realistically...lol


----------



## nomore4s (5 May 2009)

Glen48 said:


> Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.




How much money is to be made before that happens though? 

Already we have seen some great opportunities while the bears keep calling for a crash and a new bottom. Even if we do head straight down from here if you have managed your risks and trades well you should have done very well out of this rally.


----------



## nunthewiser (5 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> How much money is to be made before that happens though?
> 
> Already we have seen some great opportunities while the bears keep calling for a crash and a new bottom. Even if we do head straight down from here if you have managed your risks and trades well you should have done very well out of this rally.





but who says some of the bears havent ? i still believe that we will venture to new overall lows but not gunna sit around with my finger up my bum waiting for it

trade whats been presented and boy this rally sure has been a doozy


----------



## makingmoney (5 May 2009)

I tend to agree with most of ur comments..(refering 2 last post by nero64)but hard to say if we wont see lows like (3100-3200 xao)few months ago..but i guess the market is all speculation as you would know.either u follow charts or incoming information or both...we follow the dow...famous quote being " When america sneezes the would catchs a cold" and i dont have much faith in the following news coming out of the dow..due to the covering up or ramping information..e.g: the stress tests for the banks is coming up..well we all know i couldnt all changed over night but with fancy accounting and a slide of hands ..presto...banks r ok lmao..well with what i read with warren buffet talking up wells-fargo..i think he forgot 2 neglect he owns 7% of the company...and that he still hold 20billion in cash...maybe he,s expecting lows...well that,s my opinion..its a rally sure atm..but my gut feeling is a down to come..


----------



## Cartman (5 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> i still believe that we will venture to new overall lows but *not gunna sit around with my finger up my bum*





i for one am glad you have relinquished this habit Nun, and put your efforts into more rewarding spiritual passtimes lol ---- :eek3:


----------



## nunthewiser (5 May 2009)

Cartman said:


> i for one am glad you have relinquished this habit Nun, and put your efforts into more rewarding spiritual passtimes lol ---- :eek3:




lol i should edit that to "fingers in my ears" as that post is very un nunly

amen


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 May 2009)

Glen48 said:


> *Its gonna be some crash in a few months* when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.




Umm?

Excuse me, but I thought the New World Order had decided gummint policy would be to perpetually bailout the biggest "market players" and thus in effect, "the markets" themselves, with gummint created cash because "they" are too big to fail?

Ergo "upticks" & "short" bans that will undoubtedly stay as permanent tools for "sustained growth"?

Hmm. Can't see too many "significant" pullbacks under such an orchestrated and world-wide "aggressive" policy?

Party on...


----------



## moXJO (6 May 2009)

If its going to drop it will drop in may. Looking back through the charts, the good old rule of sell in May and run away applies.
2003, 2004, 2005(started early) 2006, 2007(went sideways through May then down), 2008(bears dream) all were followed (or already falling) during or very close to may. So the probabilities of a decent fall seem within reason (mid May?)
I'm not to sure if the US is trying to BS the economy into kick starting or what but there is some dodgy data coming out of there. How long can you be force fed $hit and call it ice-cream for?

Better dust off those signs with 'the end is nigh' and start shaking em again


----------



## nomore4s (6 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> but who says some of the bears havent ? i still believe that we will venture to new overall lows but not gunna sit around with my finger up my bum waiting for it
> 
> trade whats been presented and boy this rally sure has been a doozy




lol, I never said the bears hadn't traded the rally, just that there are very good trading opportunities around atm - despite all the negativity from the bears.

I'm sure there are quite a few bears who have done very well out of this rally just as there are bears and bulls who have missed a good chunk of it.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> You have to see it realistically.
> Signed realistically...lol





You present a very good case but what do the blue chippers grow into from here? Where is the real demand coming from for their products and services?

signed, missed the bottom.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> What is going to be the catalyst, the panic to cause redemptions and people dropping shares again like they did last Novemeber.




The realisation that the practices of private individuals & investment banks going into debt to speculate with leverage is now being taken up by central banks around the globe?

So we have the situation of the indebted individuals and loose money shuffling banks being joined in indebtedness by ever expanding big government.

When the penny finally drops and people start to see government expediture severely cut back and rates & tax's start to rise to pay for it all, the second wave will already have commenced. Just not sure when the markets forward looking optimism will turn into present looking reality? There's a lot of goodwill & rhetoric and not much more driving this rally?

Remember that 2 weeks have past since we last saw the xjo at this level. It's not driving higher it's being reluctantly pulled higher by the manipulated US markets?


----------



## dhukka (6 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> *If its going to drop it will drop in may. Looking back through the charts, the good old rule of sell in May and run away applies.*
> 2003, 2004, 2005(started early) 2006, 2007(went sideways through May then down), 2008(bears dream) all were followed (or already falling) during or very close to may. So the probabilities of a decent fall seem within reason (mid May?)




I have no strong convictions about what the market will do in May, however the "Sell in May" adage is not supported by the data. Since 1985, the XAO rose *16* times in the month of May out of the 24 years worth of data, only declining one third of the time. 

If you're not happy with that sample size, looking at the S&P500 data from 1950, May was positive 34 times and negative 25 times. Perhaps it gained credence in the 20 year period from 1965 to 1984 when it was negative 15 times out of 20. It is no coincidence that that time period almost exactly equals the horrible secular bear market form 1966 to 1982. So unless you cherrypick the data to prove what you want it to prove, the go away in May adage really has no basis at all.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (6 May 2009)

Dhukka,

What's your view on possible Asian economic bottoming/stabilisation/recovery over the next 6mths?

Thanks in advance.


----------



## dhukka (6 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Dhukka,
> 
> What's your view on possible Asian economic bottoming/stabilisation/recovery over the next 6mths?
> 
> Thanks in advance.




Living in Japan I can tell you Japan is not stabilizing, although the rate of decline is slowing. I'll be in Hong Kong next month so that should be interesting to see how things are going there.  I have no strong views about China, largely because the data is sporadic and dubious. Sorry, not much help.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (6 May 2009)

dhukka said:


> Sorry, not much help.




That's ok. Out of all the economic commentary around this place, I have the most respect for your views so I was just hoping you had some insight. 

My  are that the global recovery will be lead by Asia but I don't have the fundamental acumen to quantify that. Just the beliefs that USA has pretty much had its day and China will be leading the next growth stage. I do understand that the US is still the largest consumer but I think the next decade will be a major transitional period.


----------



## dhukka (6 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> My  are that the global recovery will be lead by Asia but I don't have the fundamental acumen to quantify that. Just the beliefs that USA has pretty much had its day and China will be leading the next growth stage. I do understand that the US is still the largest consumer but I think the next decade will be a major transitional period.




That's as good a guess as any. Marc Faber said something interesting a while back. Since the credit crunch has morphed into a full blown cyclical recession and since the US is more of a service orientated economy, that the downturn would not be as sharp or as deep as the manufacturing economies of asia, as manufacturing is what suffers most in a cyclical recession. That also implies of course that the recovery will be sharper and stronger in these same economies once demand returns.  

Of course, trying to pick when demand will return is tough, copper which is a decent indicator seems to be saying soon, I'm still skeptical, for demand to return the US has to be part of it, I can't buy the decoupling theory yet, China is still too export dependent. The US is showing signs of stabilization but only because the Fed is plugging every hole in a leaking boat. What happens when they take their fingers out?


----------



## nunthewiser (6 May 2009)

PERSONALLY 

thinks japan will lead the world in those first to recover 

i have posted my basic thoughts on this matter elswhere


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The realisation that the practices of private individuals & investment banks going into debt to speculate with leverage is now being taken up by central banks around the globe?
> 
> So we have the situation of the indebted individuals and loose money shuffling banks being joined in indebtedness by ever expanding big government.
> 
> ...




With gummints world-wide having a rapidly increasing "influence" over the use of mass-media "spin" to drive national agendas & economies, it is easy to see how ephemeral factors like "goodwill" & "rhetoric" can support those economies & markets sometimes almost to the point of being totally illogical.

Big Bro Political Rhetoric in the current MUST HAVE NOW age is a migh-tee power-fuel tool in the hands of cunning & clever propoganda ministers. KRudd is a supreme populist, and will massage our minds dailly through populist policy mass-media press releases. The Coalition need a complete re-invention or KRudd will be in power for generations...

To anyone who thinks _they_ have the answers and can remotely change any of this luverrly, democratically elected, free civilised world setup - I say, GOOD FLAMIN' LUCK TO YA!!

I'll just ride this craziness out till my time on Earth is done.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> KRudd is a supreme populist, and will massage our minds dailly through populist policy mass-media press releases. The Coalition need a complete re-invention or KRudd will be in power for generations...
> 
> 
> I'll just ride this craziness out till my time on Earth is done.




Wrong thread and apologies if this isn`t funny , but here is our supreme populist (bless his righteous soul) doing some gardening. (i know, it has been shown before)


----------



## musicman (6 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.
> 
> Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?
> 
> ...




My advice - just watch the 20 day MA.  I'll be getting worried if the XAO falls below it for more than a couple of trade days.   musicman


----------



## Glen48 (6 May 2009)

This bloke has the answers:
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/3daa472b6a/ali-g-on-the-economy-from-aligshow_fan


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 May 2009)

musicman said:


> My advice - just watch the 20 day MA.  I'll be getting worried if the XAO falls below it for more than a couple of trade days.   musicman




Excellent comment musicman, and we are coming up to June when many folk rejig their portfolios to sell their dogs. If there is a drop below the 20d ma there may be a panic, and then there is the flu which if it becomes a pandemic may knock production in many countries by up to 60% for up to 8 weeks due to disruption to the labour market, on some estimates.

gg


----------



## Pythagerous (7 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.
> 
> Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?
> 
> ...




I don't normally like to toot my own horn, but "*TOOT TOOT*"


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> I don't normally like to toot my own horn, but "*TOOT TOOT*"




"*HONK, HONK!!*


----------



## Gordon Gekko (14 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> "*HONK, HONK!!*





I was going to quote the same post Jeff! I was going to wait a few hundred more points though.

Lets get this sucker back down to 3300!!

G


----------



## metric (14 May 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> I don't normally like to toot my own horn, but "*TOOT TOOT*"




i dont know what you are cheering about?   the market has fallen some 300 points in the last three days, and morecarnage is expected to come. if you are calling a bottom, so state it please. it will make an interesting quote in a little while.....


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 May 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I was going to quote the same post Jeff! I was going to wait a few hundred more points though.
> 
> Lets get this sucker back down to 3300!!
> 
> G




Yup. The rising economarketspin euphoria by Mr Market and his mates from the Biggy Bwanker Gang over the last few weeks was making me feel a bit bilious. Mr Market & friends are way overdue to take some more prescribed medicine.



aj


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## Aussiejeff (14 May 2009)

Metinks the prescribed medicine Mr Market will be forced to quaff for some time to come is called "*Massive Dilution Of Share Value Across All Sectors*" due to the recent and ongoing SuperTsunami of "capital raisings" by a zillion companies via Mega share placements.

Printing a planetary avalanche of share scrip in a bid for "cash via the backdoor" to keep companies afloat is little different than Treasuries world wide running the money presses flat out. 

IMO something had to break sooner or later as far as stock valuations go.


----------



## Bushman (14 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Metinks the prescribed medicine Mr Market will be forced to quaff for some time to come is called "*Massive Dilution Of Share Value Across All Sectors*" due to the recent and ongoing SuperTsunami of "capital raisings" by a zillion companies via Mega share placements.
> 
> Printing a planetary avalanche of share scrip in a bid for "cash via the backdoor" to keep companies afloat is little different than Treasuries world wide running the money presses flat out.
> 
> IMO something had to break sooner or later as far as stock valuations go.




The market is going south due to rumours of a $5b Rio rights issue (source - Marketwatch website). I thought ASIC was stamping out 'rumourtrage'? 

All together now - 'when my money, when my money goes to Rio .....'


----------



## bowseruni (14 May 2009)

Is this the end of the dead cat?

I think we will soon test the boundaries of the previous bottom, IMO the market stormed back up way to quick, many people will lock in profits and get out for a breather i think.

Although i expect the likes of JB and hardly normal to come out in weeks to come with "record profits" after being stimulated....like to see them back them up in consecutive months after.

I work in the NSW coal mining industry and i can let you know we have not seen the worst of it yet, we are still gearing up for it. The company i work for is looking at closing atleast 2 of it's NSW mines, gave all new consultants the flick from tomorrow and one mine has given all their contractors a months notice. The mine i'm at will be doing the same very soon....if we are still open in a couple of months time. 

I fail to see how the likes of BHP and RIO can put on so much of an increase when realistically they are hurting more now than before when the prices were at rock bottom.


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 May 2009)

bowseruni said:


> Is this the end of the dead cat?
> 
> I think we will soon test the boundaries of the previous bottom, IMO the market stormed back up way to quick, many people will lock in profits and get out for a breather i think.
> 
> ...




A little smoke & mirrors plus easy access to "almost" unlimited capital from gummint guaranteed banks eager to invest our hard-earned always helps...

Good luck with your future in the industry, man.


aj


----------



## Beej (15 May 2009)

I love how after a significant and sustained rally of 2 months and +25%/800 XAO points, that when get an inevitable retracement in the order of ~200 XAO points, all the bears here start jumping up and down with glee and declaring that we are on our way to a new bottom, and castigating Pythagerous who actually made a pretty good call 2 months ago re what the market was likely to do! Does it ever occur to you the hard core bears that there could just be a bit of profit taking? Consolidation? A bit of a sell off on some negative news? Remember that even after this recent rally there has still been a massive sell off since the 07 highs with significant economic downside priced in even at current levels.

Me? I still don't know what is going to happen, we might have seen the low for this bear, we might not. IMO the odds are looking more likely now that we have seen the lowest low, and if nothing else the recent rally shows just how hard and fast Mr Market will turn once sentiment starts to swing in a more positive direction. Imagine what might happen when some really positive economic news/indicators do start to emerge from the US? Ignore this signal at your financial peril! I think it *might* be a bit like the opposite of what happened in Aug 07 when the market first tanked no US sub-prime fears, then quickly rebounded, but then tanked subsequently into the worse long term equity sell off since the 30s. The market seems to have a habit of telegraphing what the next big move is going to be if you look for the signals.....

Enjoy the ride!

Cheers,

Beej


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## CanOz (15 May 2009)

Beej said:


> we might have seen the low for this bear, we might not. IMO the odds are looking more likely now that we have seen the lowest low,




When was the last time we saw a major bear market turn around on one low?

Never. 

Where are you saying the odds are?

I'm in cash and will be until this latest bit of chop sorts itself out. For the record my super is now in cash too.

CanOz


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## Uncle Festivus (15 May 2009)

Beej said:


> Imagine what might happen when some really positive economic news/indicators do start to emerge from the US? Ignore this signal at your financial peril!




Imagine or dream, it's (really positive news) still a concept yet to materialise. You say the market has priced in all the bad news - I say it's priced in the end of the recession, yet I don't see that happening, not within the timeframe given by the green shooter lemming brigade. 

The market moving facts are that the driver of the downturn ie US property is still tanking with record defaults. The unemplyment rate is still rising at the rate of over 500,000 people PER MONTH!



> A report by RealtyTrac showed that the number of U.S. households facing foreclosure jumped 32% in April, and mortgage applications fell last week as fewer homeowners sought to refinance.



Are optimists in this climate only ignorant of the facts? Please explain or put forward the data or facts which indicate the end of the bear market was 2 months ago, not just "hope" or "odds"? 

The various stimulii around the world are ephemeral measures which won't create long term employment but will create a huge mountain of debt that in the long run may require to be defalted on ie governments will be insolvent.



> On Thursday, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose 32,000 to 637,000 last week, above expectations, and the highest level since mid-April.



Check the revisions - NFP was revised up to near 700,00 for March, expect the same for April.


> The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.4% in April from the prior month, a steeper decline than the 0.1% slip economists expected. Sales in March were revised down, falling 1.3% instead of 1.2% as previously reported.


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## MR. (15 May 2009)

CanOz said:


> When was the last time we saw a major bear market turn around on one low?
> 
> Never.
> 
> CanOz




Australian shares
1987 ....  yep double bottom
1980 ....  yep double bottom 
1973 ....  yep double bottom but second bottom higher
1929 ....  yep double bottom but second bottom lower

waiting, waiting

Also the US is at the highest trailing price earnings ratio we have ever seen at 56. (last weeks figure)

How long will we continue to get our lead from Wall Street?


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## Beej (15 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Imagine or dream, it's (really positive news) still a concept yet to materialise. You say the market has priced in all the bad news - I say it's priced in the end of the recession, yet I don't see that happening, not within the timeframe given by the green shooter lemming brigade.




Did I dream about a 25% rally since March? I don't think that was a dream? All I am saying is that this rally shows us what can and probably will happen - very rapidly - when sentiment turns after a major sell off.

I don't think the end of recession is priced in yet - far from it. I think we are currently priced for recession rather than something much worse. I don't think we will be priced for the end of recession (ie the resumption of economic growth) until the XAO for example is back past 5000.



> The market moving facts are that the driver of the downturn ie US property is still tanking with record defaults. The unemplyment rate is still rising at the rate of over 500,000 people PER MONTH!
> 
> Are optimists in this climate only ignorant of the facts? Please explain or put forward the data or facts which indicate the end of the bear market was 2 months ago, not just "hope" or "odds"?




I'll tell you a fact - there is ALWAYS economic recovery after an economic downturn; it's only a question of timing. The market will always be forward looking in anticipation of that fact; many of the fundamentals you cite are lagging indicators of past contraction. As soon as they start to level off or improve - watch the stock market rally hard.



> The various stimulii around the world are ephemeral measures which won't create long term employment but will create a huge mountain of debt that in the long run may require to be defalted on ie governments will be insolvent.
> 
> Check the revisions - NFP was revised up to near 700,00 for March, expect the same for April.




Perhaps - personally I don't subscribe to this Austrian-esque view on the role of public debt and the government stimulus etc. I see the stimulus more like the crash cart "paddles" used on hospital ER to revive a crashing patient - once kick started the patients heart etc continue to pump on it's own again, but without the jolt from the paddles the patient would have died. Once alive they can happily pay for the electricity used.

I think Robert Gottliebsen form business spectator has a good take on the positive role the rescue/stimulus packages around the world have had, and the unprecedented cooperation seen amongst the central banks and governments of all the major economies: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Stress-test-pd20090508-RTVFN?OpenDocument

EDIT: Plus from a purely AU market perspective, public debt does not look being the big issue for us compared to the debt levels in other countries like the US and UK!

PS: If we do really start to re-test the March lows and have a "double bottom", that for me will be a strong buy signal and I will happily accumulate more quality shares into my portfolio at that point. I haven't been adding much through this current rally, other than re-investing dividends (which have remained quite good), and I sold nothing at the lows either.

Cheers,

Beej


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## Uncle Festivus (15 May 2009)

Beej said:


> EDIT: Plus from a purely AU market perspective, public debt does not look being the big issue for us compared to the debt levels in other countries like the US and UK!




Much has been made of the comparitive 'worseness' of other countries, but if the global economy is to even start to look healthy, wouldn't these consumer countries like the US, UK & Japan have to start consuming ie going into more debt? With public debt to GDP of these countries between 70-110%, they are hardly in any state to start consuming our raw materials again in boom qauntities any time soon?

It's still  a problem of debt and it still hasn't been adressed. 

Maybe this will be the first time the markets don't bounce back, at least for several years, until all the bad debts have been purged and wealth creation is not outsourced to China? 

None of the stimulis is aimed at making anything, rather repairing the things neglected after years of underfunding in order to get the golden surplus? Once all is said and done, we will be back where we started, only several 10's of billions more in debt.


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## Aussiejeff (15 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Much has been made of the comparitive 'worseness' of other countries, but if the global economy is to even start to look healthy, wouldn't these consumer countries like the US, UK & Japan have to start consuming ie going into more debt? With public debt to GDP of these countries between 70-110%, they are hardly in any state to start consuming our raw materials again in boom qauntities any time soon?
> 
> It's still  a problem of debt and it still hasn't been adressed.
> 
> ...




I suspect sometime in the future, the as yet unborn Oz generations are going to pose the question _"What WERE they thinking?"_ in relation to current monetary policy.

If I'm wrong?

Tough.

I'll be pushin' up da weeds...


----------



## moXJO (15 May 2009)

1.     "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

2.     "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

3.     "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

4.     "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

5.     "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." 
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

6.     "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" 
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." 
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929

7.     "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." 
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." 
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

8.     "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." 
- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." 
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

9.     "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." 
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." 
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

10. "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." 
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." 
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." 
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930 

13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." 
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..." 
- HES Mar 29, 1930

14. "... the outlook is favorable..." 
- HES Apr 19, 1930

15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." 
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." 
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." 
- HES June 28, 1930

17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..." 
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." 
- HES Nov 15, 1930

19. "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." 
- HES Oct 31, 1931

20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933


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## Aussiejeff (16 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> **Lots of uber-optimistic political & economist quotes from just before the big downleg in the Great Depression...**




Hahaha! Good one moXJO.

Talk about dejavu.

If you had swapped the dates & names with the complimentary "market makers" from NOW, I could have sworn I was reading through a fistful of quotes from today's uber-optimists over the past few weeks.

What goes around comes around, eh?



PS: *Scary thought*. Oh. Maybe todays spruikers actually DO have the same speeches and are just mindlessly reading from the same old optimi-script?


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## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

For me double bottom already clearly been played. November lows and lower low in March. The pace of that dewarfs what happened in Depression and yet now the ubber bears saying we are following that to even greater lows.
Rubbish...
We are in for a rocky period I reckon ,could go both ways, however I do view that unless something unprcedented and unforeseen happens of global proportions, Market has everything factored in... including bankruptcy of GM, Slower recovery and negative growth for a few months.
unfortunately many people are bordering clinical depression, bought about by unprecedented global pesimism and media hysteria. They only see the worst..and when recovery happens they will still be in denial!

Small recovery will be PROVEN to be under way from Q3 09, stabilisation into Q4, 
upticks of growth by Q1 10.. thats all the sentiment the market needs, as has already been proven..

Guess many people got to have faith in the stocks they hold, and clearly ask yourself what will the SP  be in 12-18 months time....if you dont need to sell, why sell ?
If you do not have that faith and think the sky is going to fall in further, sell up ,go to cash, go to the hills, whatever.. We will see you back in  6 months time bitchin about missing this opportunity.... when you are paying another 15%- 25% to get back in..

I bought all my stocks from October 08 to recent and have pretty sizeable profits already in place for my long term sentiment, Im going to take profits and sell down approx 1/3 or my portfolio this coming week and see which direction we are going....
One thing for sure is I will not miss the turn when it eventually happens, a turn is a given not a possiblity!
wheep0


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## CanOz (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> For me double bottom already clearly been played. November lows and lower low in March. The pace of that dewarfs what happened in Depression and yet now the ubber bears saying we are following that to even greater lows.
> Rubbish...
> We are in for a rocky period I reckon ,could go both ways, however I do view that unless something unprcedented and unforeseen happens of global proportions, Market has everything factored in... including bankruptcy of GM, Slower recovery and negative growth for a few months.
> unfortunately many people are bordering clinical depression, bought about by unprecedented global pesimism and media hysteria. They only see the worst..and when recovery happens they will still be in denial!
> ...




Next low in October

CanOz


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## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

Next low in October

CanOz

Really??
And your reasoning is what ?

The great depression !! yawn yawn!

wheep0


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## MRC & Co (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> The pace of that *dewarfs* what happened in Depression and yet now the ubber bears saying we are following that to even greater lows.
> Rubbish...




Perhaps scroll back a few pages (think it was in this thread) and check your statement.  Completely false and misleading.

http://m1.smartmoney.com/aheadofthecurve/images/0306-chart.gif

Oh and BTW, that's NOT a double bottom.


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## Buster (17 May 2009)

Hey CanOz..



CanOz said:


> Next low in October




Obviously WheepO is new here, and not privvy to the contributions you make in this forum.. 

Anyway, I'm expecting some serious volitility (more than usual in recent times anyway..) over the next few weeks while everyone balances up the books before tax time.. May well cause a bit of panic selling and a revisit of the lows again..

moxJO.. Do you know what the story behind point 20 was?  Would be interesting to find out what the mentality behind that move was..

Cheers,

Buster


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## Gordon Gekko (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> For me double bottom already clearly been played. November lows and lower low in March. The pace of that dewarfs what happened in Depression and yet now the ubber bears saying we are following that to even greater lows.
> Rubbish...
> We are in for a rocky period I reckon ,could go both ways, however I do view that unless something unprcedented and unforeseen happens of global proportions, Market has everything factored in... including bankruptcy of GM, Slower recovery and negative growth for a few months.
> unfortunately many people are bordering clinical depression, bought about by unprecedented global pesimism and media hysteria. They only see the worst..and when recovery happens they will still be in denial!
> ...




Israel!!

Could this be an unprecedented event that has not been factored in? I know we have heard it all before but this has been building for some time and the writtings on the wall.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/131153

I don't think we will have to wait until Oct. Think we will retest the lows in July.

My

G


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## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

Guys, ha ha
The preverbial pessimists, looking and going of charts of the great depression and now throwing in tails of global meltdown ala Isreal.. All typical Donnie Darko stuff....
heard it all before on HC, nothing new there..
Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and  those with longer term positivness  who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...

nothing new here I see, same old same old manic depressiveness who if won the lottery would bitch about the $ 10 it cost buy the ticket.

Each to their own though, guess thats why some people always make things happen and come out well and others well just dont!

Am I the only bull in the village? Well if so , just to let you know this bull is taking $ 350 k pofits out this week ,held since October 08..

Good luck to all...
My path is somewhat individual, not for most , but has done me very well.. 

cheers
Wheep0


----------



## moXJO (17 May 2009)

Buster said:


> moxJO.. Do you know what the story behind point 20 was?  Would be interesting to find out what the mentality behind that move was..
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Buster




To take their gold. I'm not sure if many were actually seized though. Or even if point 20 was said. I just saw the chart and thought it was funny.

http://www.wellsfargonevadagold.com/confiscation-order.pdf


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## moXJO (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Guys, ha ha
> The preverbial pessimists, looking and going of charts of the great depression and now throwing in tails of global meltdown ala Isreal.. All typical Donnie Darko stuff....
> heard it all before on HC, nothing new there..
> Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and  those with longer term positivness  who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...
> ...




Why sell then? Shouldn’t you be buying more?


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Next low in October
> 
> CanOz
> 
> ...




There are many more shoes to drop yet mate, we haven't even begun to see the effect of the collapse in the commercial real estate market. As this happens there will be more write downs and most banks will need even more capital. 

The housing index is rolling over, signaling an end to the recent rally, and the financial index is following.

Then there is the seasonal factor, do you seriously think there is enough positive sentiment to go against this? I can see it if we were in a big bull market, but how is this bear going to go against proven seasonality?

I'm no perma-bear Wheep0, i just don't see any fundamental or technical indications that this rally is the end of the bear market, not yet.

Good choice taking profits, i wish you well.

CanOz


----------



## itsmejasong (17 May 2009)

either way next few months will be very interesting...


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## MS+Tradesim (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and  those with longer term positivness  who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...




Which shows you don't have a clue about how lucrative day trading can be.


----------



## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Which shows you don't have a clue about how lucrative day trading can be.




No and I really dont want to, every day trader I know are all pretty stressed people, who funnily enough dont seem to have reached financial freedom by doing it! Sure its ok for a little dabble , I even do it myself at times..but it does not determine my investment strategy!

Funny thing is ,Most traders I know only talk about the ones that they made a few bucks on, not the ones that they got burnt on.. and suddenly the whole world caves in on them and they are skint. Proves to me a lot more duff trades than profitable ones..
Still sure there are good skins to be taken in the right time and right place, i dont doubt.

100k invested in the likes of PDN, WOR, ADX, 4 Months ago and still holding now, would have decimated any profits with trading $ 100 k in and out of them.

Listen I ve nothing against traders, I just dont understand the need to keep dabbling all day every day, when just as much or more profits would be gained by leaving them all alone and letting them work for you.

One other thing I will add to this thread.. Forget about anylising the XJO, has no resemblence to the future of the Australian stock market. The only 2 indice`s anyone needs to be analysing for trends is the SP 500 and DJIA..
Its pretty sad Australia which is so resource rich cannot determine its own market movements, but its true... Our market is nothing more than a mute satelite around the central bource of SP and DJIA....

Im no lover of the yanks, but they will be the ones that dictate when this global recession ends, noone else.. For me they will see better figures arrive by Q3,  The market being forward thinking now has to take that all in..

Good luck with your trades..

Wheep0


----------



## MRC & Co (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> One other thing I will add to this thread.. Forget about anylising the XJO, has no resemblence to the future of the Australian stock market. The only 2 indice`s anyone needs to be analysing for trends is the SP 500 and DJIA..




Asia/Europe/US all move eachother, none lead, none follow.  If you watched any charts unfold live, you would see this.  

One good trade and all of a sudden your an expert on day trading, swing trading, position trading, correlations of indices, what else can you let us in on?


----------



## MRC & Co (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> For me they will see better figures arrive by Q3,  The market being forward thinking now has to take that all in..
> 
> Good luck with your trades..
> 
> Wheep0




Ever heard of under-valued, 'reflexivity', two of the richest traders in the world made their coin out of this.  Markets are forward looking, but also grossly mis-price at certain times.


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## Aussiest (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Listen I ve nothing against traders, I just dont understand the need to keep dabbling all day every day, when just as much or more profits would be gained by leaving them all alone and letting them work for you.




I wouldn't tend to disagree with this, but there are those out there who do quite well with day trading.


----------



## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Asia/Europe/US all move eachother, none lead, none follow.  If you watched any charts unfold live, you would see this.
> 
> One good trade and all of a sudden your an expert on day trading, swing trading, position trading, correlations of indices, what else can you let us in on?





Nope ,I aint no expert on trading or the market, makes me the same as most then.. I look at things very simply.. Market falls 55% in 9 months ,then its a pretty safe bet to plough in with a mid term strategy ( thats 12-24 months) not 1 -3 days which is the traders long term hold it seems..

One tip though..
Have the gonads to be forward thinking and the common sense to know where we have been before this crisis, we will be back to and more, we have sent rockets to Mars and landed men on the moon ( so they say ,suppose someone will contest that one as well) anyone compairing the world of 2009, the growth patterns,and technology Advances  to the times of the great depression needs a very sharp reality check!

Me, It just felt right, still does..Never touched the markets before October 08 and wont again after this period of global capitulation... 
I do know energy stocks though and what is required to bring it online, and that is why my whole portfolio is based on Oil, Uranium and Materials.. some gold and fertilisers as well to weigh it up
The fundementals for the future.

Sorry for spoiling your bear party..... 
wheep0


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## CanOz (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Nope ,I aint no expert on trading or the market, makes me the same as most then.. I look at things very simply.. Market falls 55% in 9 months ,then its a pretty safe bet to plough in with a mid term strategy ( thats 12-24 months) not 1 -3 days which is the traders long term hold it seems..
> 
> One tip though..
> Have the gonads to be forward thinking and the common sense to know where we have been before this crisis, we will be back to and more, we have sent rockets to Mars and landed men on the moon ( so they say ,suppose someone will contest that one as well) anyone compairing the world of 2009, the growth patterns,and technology Advances  to the times of the great depression needs a very sharp reality check!
> ...




Your knowledge of economics is far worse than mine Wheep0 and your arguments hold little water. 

One thing i will say, your buy and hold approach to commodity stocks on the ASX may be more profitable in the long run than it is right now for swing traders. That is however, mostly due to the illiquid nature of this current market. 

Your right, you do look at things very simply, as did most of those other buy and hold investors who lost 55% or more of their wealth.

There is nothing wrong with taking a long term view, but my question is...what do you do if your view is wrong? Do you cut your losses or do you average down?

George Soros once said something like "I may get it wrong from time to time, but i spend less time in the market when i know I'm wrong than when I'm right" and he reiterates that in the end of this interview

That's the key difference between investors who get lucky and ones that use expectancy. I wonder which one you are Wheep0, i suspect the former?

And on that thought i'll leave you with these charts.....any comments?



Cheers,



CanOz


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## GumbyLearner (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Am I the only bull in the village? Well if so , just to let you know this bull is taking $ 350 k pofits out this week ,held since October 08..
> 
> Good luck to all...
> My path is somewhat individual, not for most , but has done me very well..
> ...




Well done Wheep0. 

Just one question, is the 350K pre or post-CGT calculation? 

Cheers
Gumby


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## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

CanOz said:


> Your knowledge of economics is far worse than mine Wheep0 and your arguments hold little water.
> 
> One thing i will say, your buy and hold approach to commodity stocks on the ASX may be more profitable in the long run than it is right now for swing traders. That is however, mostly due to the illiquid nature of this current market.
> 
> ...





Hmm, welcome to my world. WOR average $ 12.85 holding 12000 Shares, IPL average $ 1.83 holding 80,000 shares, PDN average $ 2.40 holding 50,000 shares, ADX average $ 0.05 Holding 900,000 shares, theres half a dozen more....  

Im no market expert, I am however an energy and materials expert and a forward thinker. I have been consulting in the oil industry last 15 years, and have worked in it all my life. I actually knew Worley Parsons was a very astute and globaly experienced oil and gas company unlike the average mug who thought and still thinks it s a mining company bringing ore out of the ground, and drove the SP down to $ 11....

I love it, seen it all on HC where I got the same put downs from the so called " market experts", simple truth of the fact is, I am as much an expert as you in these current times...

Remember a little truth, half of the people involved in markets dont know half as much as they think, and the other half know a lot more than they think! ..
which one are you ?


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Remember a little truth, half of the people involved in markets dont know half as much as they think, and the other half know a lot more than they think! ..
> which one are you ?




I'm very aware of how little i know of the markets mate, i've only been in the markets for three and half years now. One thing about the markets i do know is that they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! I cut my losses and i let my winners run, the trade determines my holding time  in almost all cases. I'm recently in cash, except for a few commodity ETFs and until i can get short i will stay in cash.

I've not made allot of money in the three years of trading, but i had little to start with. I've learned my lessons the hard way, and i now manage risk. Through this bear market i can happily say that i'm in front, which is more than many buy and hold investors can say.



CanOz


----------



## MS+Tradesim (17 May 2009)

Hoo boy, where to start?



Wheep0 said:


> Hmm, welcome to my world. WOR average $ 12.85 holding 12000 Shares, IPL average $ 1.83 holding 80,000 shares, PDN average $ 2.40 holding 50,000 shares, ADX average $ 0.05 Holding 900,000 shares, theres half a dozen more....




Means nothing on this forum. You want to make claims, submit your holding statements to be verified by a moderator. Having said that, even if you do have these positions it demonstrates nothing about your ability to trade/invest at a professional level. You have however, qualified your view of yourself.



> I love it, seen it all on HC where I got the same put downs from the so called " market experts",




I seem to recall you saying you were banned from HC. That seems odd, given your style of commentary seems more commensurate with that community.



> Remember a little truth, half of the people involved in markets dont know half as much as they think, and the other half know a lot more than they think! ..which one are you ?




1) You're new to the forum.
2) Canaussieuck is a regular and pretty well regarded I believe.

You are not going to garner credibility here by bad-mouthing day trading when by your own admission you know nothing of it, big-noting yourself, and directing clearly uninformed comments at accomplished traders (such as MRC).

Here's a tip:

Take a step back. Carefully consider what informed opinion/knowledge you might be able to add to this community. Offer it with a little humility and openness given your admitted lack of experience.

And have a nice day.


----------



## GumbyLearner (17 May 2009)

CanOz said:


> I'm very aware of how little i know of the markets mate, i've only been in the markets for three and half years now. One thing about the markets i do know is that they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! I cut my losses and i let my winners run, the trade determines my holding time  in almost all cases. I'm recently in cash, except for a few commodity ETFs and until i can get short i will stay in cash.
> 
> I've not made allot of money in the three years of trading, but i had little to start with. I've learned my lessons the hard way, and i now manage risk. Through this bear market i can happily say that i'm in front, which is more than many buy and hold investors can say.
> 
> ...




I appreciate your posts Can Oz.
MY first investment was back in 2001. 
I'm more a buy and hold kinda guy myself.
Since the Bear began I have lost around 20% at today's market level. 
Sitting on a few losses without counting divs, splits or discounted capital loyalty buy-in programs.

What I am happy to say is that I have never touched the financials or the Allco, Centro's of this world. But have been burnt by the Micheless's over at OZL & a couple of others. Still holding and not trading. Each to their own!


----------



## jonojpsg (17 May 2009)

Wheepo wheepo wheepo, you brag about 100% returns in four months and scoff at "day traders" making a few coppers here and there - mate there are traders on here who can make your 100% in a day so don't come scoffing at what you obviously don't understand.  The good day traders don't brag, that's probably why you don't hear from them.

Of course I'm not one of them so I'm certainly not scoffing at your 100% although that's about my return and most likely a lot of other people on this forums as well over the last four months.


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> I appreciate your posts Can Oz.
> MY first investment was back in 2001.
> I'm more a buy and hold kinda guy myself.
> Since the Bear began I have lost around 20% at today's market level.
> ...




Hi Gumby, nothing wrong with a fundy view, as long as you are right 50% of the time you can throw darts at the ASX200 if you like. My point is, when do we classify investor performance as luck vs. positive expectancy? Soros cuts his losses when he is wrong, does Buffet? How is Buffet doing now vs. Soros? (i'll answer that, Buffet 0, Soros 1).

Ã‰rt engem?


----------



## Trevor_S (17 May 2009)

CanOz said:


> I'm very aware of how little i know of the markets mate, i've only been in the markets for three and half years now.




...



CanOz said:


> How is Buffet doing now vs. Soros? (i'll answer that, Buffet 0, Soros 1).




words fail me


----------



## MRC & Co (17 May 2009)

Sorry off topic, but it's always funny to read about people talking of their time in the markets.

This doesn't mean much to me, someone who has stocks invested and dabbles in trading for 25 years, probably won't know as much as someone who sits infront of a screen and watches it full-time and consumes themselves in trading for 1 year!  

Not to mention, some can gain an edge in 6 months, others may never find one in a lifetime!


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2009)

Trevor_S said:


> ...
> 
> 
> 
> words fail me




Why? Everyone's letting loose here, verbalize man! You want details on how Berk Hath is doing vs Soros's endowment fund in 2008?

CanOZ


----------



## Wheep0 (17 May 2009)

Dont mean to be aggressive, however all you bears are just so touchy.. Listen im unconventional and I oppose the masses....
Makes you think though eh?

I had everyone on HC telling me I should have been certified for buying when everyone was selling..

Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR

I opposed everyone in November telling me I was mad, and now, Im taking nearly 400 k profit out. I was down a few times and one day away from selling the lot at a loss, but I stuck in. I will leave in in my innitial investment after profits are out, Im sure it will ebb and flow for a few months, but whatever , if we kick back down to sub 3500 I will just buy more for the real turn around . Wont miss it thats for sure..

Im a little bored of experts and their views, the only expert anyone needs to take attention of is their selves - Be your own expert,and go with what you think is realistic and probable.. A market correction was always on the cards, after the freefall ,did not take an expert to call that.  If it falls again then guess what, another upward correction will be on as well.

Realise some of you old regulars treat these things as your own personal networks.. Hey I dont want to upset anyone, I just like to know why everyone is still calling for the world to cave in when quite obviously it is not.. It can lead to pretty strong views..

All big boys and girls here, and after all its only an internet chat room, filled not only with genuine posters but with imposters, double edged swords and raging alto ego`s....

Looking forward to an interesting month.... I foresee a ripple effect in a range of +/- 150points for the next month as long as no black swan events hit us... 

cheers
wheep0


----------



## MRC & Co (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> and raging alto ego`s....




LOL.  

Banned from HC, stirred up trouble instantly on a new forum (even with people who are not bears, nor bulls).  Looks like someone enjoys the trouble, alter-ego, LOL.

All the best with the trading.


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Looking forward to an interesting month.... I foresee a ripple effect in a range of +/- 150points for the next month as long as no *black swan events* hit us...
> 
> cheers
> wheep0




You mean besides the current one?

Cheers,



CanOz


----------



## Nero64 (17 May 2009)

> Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR




If you bought some of these in Oct then you would be down eg MAH, AIO and LEI. KAR and PDN have outperformed. I made a profit out of IPL but i don't feel comfortable in holding it due to its debt levels. 

There is some good profits made and you're entitled to your opinion. Good luck. Hope you stick around as debate is good for this forum.


----------



## Buster (17 May 2009)

G'Day Wheepo,



Wheep0 said:


> Dont mean to be aggressive, however all you bears are just so touchy..




No bear here mate, I'm simply expecting to see what we typically see every year at about this time.. although it could get silly due to some going to panic stations and, as previously opined, possibly revisit recent lows..

Time will tell though..

Cheers,

Buster


----------



## moXJO (17 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Guess why thats the reason you bears are happy with your little bitty coins from shorting and day trading and  those with longer term positivness  who bought and held since November, December are now taking 100 %+ plus profits this week...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So you started with $1.45 mill? And made a further $350k? So roughly 25 %( that sound right?) Correct me if I am wrong.
Congrats but go read up on ivant's thread where he turned $1500 into $400k in 12 months or so (paperwork verified by mods). TH also had a thread where he posted his trades and made a lot in a few days ($1k-10k to $50k I can't remember now) before you boast of how day trading sucks

As far as the bulls and bears battle, who cares as long as you trade the opportunities. Bears are not banned from taking long positions last time I checked. And a lot of information that filters through has helped a lot on certain trades. Everyone trades to a different style. And forums are more to bounce ideas or fears off of.

Good work though, and welcome to the board


----------



## GumbyLearner (18 May 2009)

CanOz said:


> Hi Gumby, nothing wrong with a fundy view, as long as you are right 50% of the time you can throw darts at the ASX200 if you like. My point is, when do we classify investor performance as luck vs. positive expectancy? Soros cuts his losses when he is wrong, does Buffet? How is Buffet doing now vs. Soros? (i'll answer that, Buffet 0, Soros 1).
> 
> Ã‰rt engem?




Yes your right Can OZ. I'm not as capable as the Jim Rogers, Marc Fabers or Wheep0's of this world so short me????  Go on, short me. Good luck ****ers!


----------



## sammy84 (18 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR




Many traders here could generate alot higher % returns. Its only your base that makes your earnings sound impressive. I alone have achieved a greater % return than you have and I've still got my training wheels on. Oh yeah, and I am one of those traders who is wasting my time. The only reason I have not printed a t-shirts claiming that I am the master of the markets is that I realise the XJO has climbed around 18% in the past month. Makes it very easy trading conditions. 

I myself have been bullish for a while. A correction is immenant however as markets cannot move one direction. Still I wouldn't be suprised to see us head back towards the 5000 mark, but after that who knows....this might be one leg of a larger bear market.  WHEEPO's posts also makes me think a correction is necessary. The dead wood needs to washed away once again.


----------



## Temjin (18 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Dont mean to be aggressive, however all you bears are just so touchy.. Listen im unconventional and I oppose the masses....
> Makes you think though eh?




The masses? Based on my observation with the general public, the media, and the people surrounding me in the real world, they are now far more optimistic about the economy (and the stock market in general) than they were back in Oct 08 low. This is when everybody was talking about gloom and doom, making our contrarian views less "contrarian". 

A bear market rally was too obvious to the well informed. 

The members on this forum here are on average, far better informed and more financially literate than the rest of the general population. 

I'm a contrarian myself and I certainly see fellow ones on this particular forum who source their data / opinions from the very same contrarians (ultra rich entreprenaurs and independent economic analysts) who have predicted this crisis back many years ago. Of course, it does not mean my planned actions toward this contrarian view would be the same tot hem. 

I guess I cannot blame you because you are still relatively new on this forum and do not have an understanding on the "common beliefs" here.  



			
				Wheep0 said:
			
		

> I had everyone on HC telling me I should have been certified for buying when everyone was selling..
> 
> Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR
> 
> I opposed everyone in November telling me I was mad, and now, Im taking nearly 400 k profit out.




You've made the right decision to trade the bear market rally because you said it, it was too obvious. Jim Rogers, Bill Gross, George Soros, etc, etc, were all stating (before the Oct 08 low) that to expect an extremely powerful BEAR MARKET rally that would caught most people off guard. 

Markets with a secular trend to worsening economic conditions will always have rallies in between. If you have the ability to identify these trends and trade them to your profit, then good on you. 

However, current economic fundamentals do not justify such rallies. We are certainly NOT IN A NEW BULL MARKET, but I'm expecting more sucker rallies to occur in the coming months/years. Rather than staying on the side line, one could profit from these bear market rallies to their own advantage. But you can be sure there will be plenty of "suckers" who think this is a new bull market and will put everything back in and continue to "buy the low" on the basis that the economy will recover in 6-12 months time. 



			
				Wheep0 said:
			
		

> Im a little bored of experts and their views, the only expert anyone needs to take attention of is their selves - Be your own expert,and go with what you think is realistic and probable.. A market correction was always on the cards, after the freefall ,did not take an expert to call that. If it falls again then guess what, another upward correction will be on as well.




Most experts that I respect are economic analysts who only focus on the bigger picture of the world. They are not interested in trading these rallies for lots of reasons including legal ones. You would fare far better if you would open your mind and listen to what they have to say. 



			
				Wheep0 said:
			
		

> Realise some of you old regulars treat these things as your own personal networks.. Hey I dont want to upset anyone, I just like to know why everyone is still calling for the world to cave in when quite obviously it is not.. It can lead to pretty strong views..




Then provide us with evidences that the global financial crisis is finally over. Why do you think bailouts and stimulus policies would work? Why do you think future growth trend will go back to the 2000-2007 levels? Why do you think we will see a new bull market again despite we are still facing a global debt deflation event? 

I'm not expecting this to be over anytime soon, but you can be sure that there are PLENTY OF TRADEABLE RALLIES and other opportunities to profit out of this downturn. I may be permissitic about the global economy in general, but I'm very optimistic about my own ability to be much better off than the "mass". 

I suggest you don't be SO SURE about your confidence of your ability to invest/trade based on your recent results. The world is much bigger than you would think.


----------



## MrBurns (18 May 2009)

Why would anyone declare the worth of their portfolio ?, unless they were lying, or just trying to impress. New money is just so crass.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (18 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Why would anyone declare the worth of their portfolio ?, unless they were lying, or just trying to impress. New money is just so crass.




Probably the done thing on HC. Trying to outdo each other. Whether or not it's true is another question.

Anyways, wasted enough energy on that distraction. Time to see if 3700 holds for the short term.


----------



## MrBurns (18 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Probably the done thing on HC. Trying to outdo each other. Whether or not it's true is another question.




Mine is $6.5 m, anyone else care to join in ?


----------



## pilots (18 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Mine is $6.5 m, anyone else care to join in ?




$ ONLY 6.5, hell man mine is 10.5, now I feel good that I am better than you.


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## shiftyphil (18 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Mine is $6.5 m, anyone else care to join in ?




But is it mostly in Confederated Slaveholdings, Transatlantic Zeppelin, Amalgamated Spats, Congreve's Inflammable Powder, U.S. Hay and Baltimore Opera Hat Company?


----------



## nunthewiser (18 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Remember a little truth, half of the people involved in markets dont know half as much as they think, and the other half know a lot more than they think! ..
> ?




and the other half are basically full of blah blah blah 

which one are you ?



Wheep0 said:


> Portfolio stands now at $ 1.8 million , WOR, ADX, PDN, IPL, ORI, LEI, TOR,ANN, AIO, FML, MAH, KAR
> 
> 
> 
> All big boys and girls here, and after all its only an internet chat room, filled not only with genuine posters but with imposters, double edged swords and raging alto ego`s....




ive learnt over time .....that people with ACTUAL money dont tell people about how much they have.... i spose you could prove your statements via a moderator but i very much doubt you will

internet guru claims are a dime a dozen darl please go back to HC if you feel the need to impress someone

re imposters etc ....which one are you ?



MrBurns said:


> Why would anyone declare the worth of their portfolio ?, unless they were lying, or just trying to impress. New money is just so crass.




bingo


----------



## Abcguy (18 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Which shows you don't have a clue about how lucrative day trading can be.




I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.


----------



## MrBurns (18 May 2009)

shiftyphil said:


> But is it mostly in Confederated Slaveholdings, Transatlantic Zeppelin, Amalgamated Spats, Congreve's Inflammable Powder, U.S. Hay and Baltimore Opera Hat Company?




Only half of it, the rest I invested based on Charlie Aitkens tips, let's see BSL, Timber Corp DOH !


----------



## MrBurns (18 May 2009)

shiftyphil said:


> But is it mostly in Confederated Slaveholdings, Transatlantic Zeppelin, Amalgamated Spats, Congreve's Inflammable Powder, U.S. Hay and Baltimore Opera Hat Company?




ROFL........excellent


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.




Buffet recently admitted that he's made some mistakes, particularly in the area of derivatives. 

I'm not a day trader, but i would say that this particular period in time is absolute heaven for day traders, particularly index traders.....why? Volatility.

It can be a tough time for swing traders and Buy and Hold investors (the next few years will be worse for investors than possibly any other time in history if the market stays range bound) , but many day traders are making a killing, and there are two or three at least on the site that have been verified as doing so.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## nunthewiser (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.





ROFLMAO  

bless ya son

thinks wozza buffets investment strategies of late have been ........well how can i put it without offending his worshippers......... oh yeah ,,,,,,,, crap?

whats his current portfolio entrys showing at the mo .-30,40,50%?

yes must admit im glad i didnt follow him on this one

blessim


----------



## Aussiest (18 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> New money is just so crass.




But, i'm sure the local merc dealer wouldn't say that


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.




:bunny::beat:

Oh PLEASE!!!

Tell us more, oh guru of other peoples capabilities.


----------



## Temjin (18 May 2009)

Correcting a mistake, the stock market low was NOT Oct 08. Rather, the degree of pessimistism expressed by the general public and mainstream media was extremely high.


----------



## cutz (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.




What's your agenda ABCdude, coming here and stating day trading is unprofitable.
Been burnt before perhaps, don't worry it's all part of the learning process.


----------



## Abcguy (18 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> ROFLMAO
> 
> bless ya son
> 
> ...





It's quite funny how many traders always look a things with their short-term mentality, no offense. Those figures mean jack ****. Do you honestly think the current negatives will have a big effect in 10 to 20 years from now on the DURABILTY of those investments? Is Warren looking to sell those investments on Berkshire's portfolio now or is he there to keep them for a lifetime?

NUN: Yes it is heaven for those day traders looking at market prices 8 hours a day but does a phenomenon like this always happen frequently for traders? They're just lucky that Mr.Market is just too optimistic atm relying on a facade of "good" news. If anything this is more of an opportune time for buy and hold investors to buy durable competitive companies cheap.


----------



## beamstas (18 May 2009)

Thats the best part about these bear market rallies

Idiots with inflated heads think they are gods gift to trading because their trading profits have followed the index!

I can't wait until we start falling again. Weed these idiots out


----------



## investorpaul (18 May 2009)

ABCguy

By your own admission you are very new to stocks:



> Hi guys, thought it would be time to introduce myself as I am very new to stocks and would love to learn and discuss things in regards to stocks. Just a little background:
> 
> My current job, as a full-time undergrad tax accountant, was the actual reason that I got interested in stocks.
> 
> Just around 3 weeks ago I made my first buy and I have been reading these forums anonymously for the past few days, especially Sir O's beginner thread, which I very much appreciate him doing. So I look forward to learning from you all and discussing anything to with stocks! Hopefully my education in stocks will also become better and better in the process.




There are many great traders on this forum trading all types of instruments over different time frames from seconds, minutes, days, months, years and decades.

Everyone has there own style of trading and it is about finding one which is right for you so that you can develop your skills and hopefully be profitable


----------



## beamstas (18 May 2009)

Trust the new guy to go straight to buffet and try to follow him.

In nuns words "blessim" 

One day he'll figure out that he doesn't have the two things buffet needed to get to where he is now

1) Brains
2) Money


----------



## Abcguy (18 May 2009)

cutz said:


> What's your agenda ABCdude, coming here and stating day trading is unprofitable.
> Been burnt before perhaps, don't worry it's all part of the learning process.




No haven't been burnt from day trading. Never even tried it TBH and I don't want to because of the stories and risks involved in. However, I have heard of people actually being burnt. Too be honest the theory of everything already being represented inside its market price I find bull****. So naturally I would find day trading to be bull**** and borderline gambling.

This is my opinion people guys, please don't take offense. We're just here for discussion


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (18 May 2009)

Why is it everytime there is a rally, the number of gurus increase?


----------



## nunthewiser (18 May 2009)

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Why is it everytime there is a rally, the number of gurus increase?





 tis a darn good trading indicator....lol happened at the top of the bull also .guru swamis popping up everywhere .....

mmmmmm might put a stickynote on my tradescreen for future reference as a reliable short entry indicator


----------



## Abcguy (18 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Trust the new guy to go straight to buffet and try to follow him.
> 
> In nuns words "blessim"
> 
> ...




Beamstas, that's quite funny you don't know me and you don't know where I am in my invesment life. Don't make assumptions . BTW it wasn't just those two things that got him to where he is.  It was actually the more simple lines of thinking and $10,000 that got him there. Try actually reading up on him.


----------



## beamstas (18 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> tis a darn good trading indicator....lol happened at the top of the bull also .guru swamis popping up everywhere .....
> 
> mmmmmm might put a stickynote on my tradescreen for future reference as a reliable short entry indicator




Maybe we could get Joe to put a little check box on the registration form

"Are you a guru Y/N"

We could get  a daily chart of new gurus and when this starts to peak we know to short everything we see


----------



## beamstas (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> Beamstas, that's quite funny you don't know me and you don't know where I am in my invesment life. Don't make assumptions . BTW it wasn't just those two things that got him to where he is.  It was actually the more simple lines of thinking and $10,000 that got him there. Try actually reading up on him.




I actually have the book "The warren buffett way" by hagstrom
Was the first ever book i bought in relation to the sharemarket "trading/investing"

I think when everyone starts trading they want a bit of buffett

You then realise that what buffett does will work for maybe 0.1% of people on the earth.

That and my preferable holding time is days, not forever 
I actually want to take my profits at some stage!


----------



## Abcguy (18 May 2009)

I'm only here, like you, for discussion. If someone disagrees with you on something does that immediately indicate they think they are "gurus"? Grow up.

I may be wrong I may be right. If I'm wrong of course tell me and I'll try to argue/discuss my point.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.




Far out...

How many false presumptions and assumptions can a person pack into one sentence?

Let's see:

1) I haven't read any book about Buffet
2) Buffet's style is the only way to make money from shares
3) Because Buffet doesn't day trade, all day trading is stupid and unprofitable
4) Buffet is the only successful investor worth emulating
5) Reading any book about Buffet is sufficient to cause a person to change their mind about their own successful trading style(s)
6) Day traders *need* to be convinced to give it up


...and that was without trying. By the way, wrong on all counts so far.

Care to try again?


----------



## beamstas (18 May 2009)

Your wrong
Take TH for example
He's a day trader

Tell me how many investors can turn $1000 to $20,000 in one day
Or what about $1000 to $50,000 in one week

Week in
Week out

Not just following the index

IMO investors have no "edge"
They just follow the index up & down
Maybe get lucky if they buy a few penny stocks

Day traders are limited by equity
They can't swing 1m trades in and out every 20 seconds
They'll move the market too much
That's why you don't see day traders with exponential returns
*Some day traders will take his profits at the end of the day and start again with a small amount the next day. They don't need to compound*

I don't know many investors who can return the % figures day traders can

& where do day traders put their profits each day?
Some put it into some cheap shares and let it grow on the side
But they know that their main income will be from day trading


----------



## Real1ty (18 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Far out...
> 
> Care to try again?




Don't encourage him MS


----------



## Abcguy (18 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Far out...
> 
> How many false presumptions and assumptions can a person pack into one sentence?
> 
> ...




OK I agree it was stupid to presume that person hasn't read any books on Buffett.

Number 2 was just an assumption by you. I never indicated this but was rather trying to say that the reasons most of the books give makes sense as to why day trading can be bad.

Number 3 is similar reasoning to number 2.

Number 5: Ok I'll admit 'unprofitable' was the wrong word to use. What I meant to say was less profitable.

Number 6 Not trying to convince anyone, just stating my opinion that I think day trading is a waste of time.

Anyways, I gotta get back to work. I wish I had your MSN's  I wouldn't mind learning more from you all.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> Anyways, I gotta get back to work. I wish I had your MSN's  I wouldn't mind learning more from you all.





warrenbuffet@poorhouse.com.au


there ya go m8


----------



## MS+Tradesim (18 May 2009)

Real1ty said:


> Don't encourage him MS




Crikey. Can always count on entertainment here if the market isn't co-operative during the day. 

*Nods at nun and mazza*....let's call it the Guru Oscillator.

Ps.

Abcguy, in your first post you stated your lack of knowledge and experience. Try asking questions rather than asserting uninformed opinions. Seriously. You'll discover there is a wealth of knowledge and experience on this forum to draw from. I think all of us with open minds have become better traders/investors through our interaction here.


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> Anyways, I gotta get back to work. I wish I had your MSN's  I wouldn't mind learning more from you all.




No please
May I have yours, I've much to learn about this intriguing "investing" concept
In seriousness, alot of people here are not stupid.
They would not waste their time on day trading if there was nothing to gain from it.



MS+Tradesim said:


> *Nods at nun and mazza*....let's call it the Guru Oscillator.



Guru Reversal Bar?


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I am very new to stocks
> 
> My current job, as a full-time undergrad tax accountant, was the actual reason that I got interested in stocks. The reason behind this is because our clientele mainly consists of investors and of course by doing their tax returns,
> 
> ...






Abcguy said:


> Number 6 Not trying to convince anyone, just stating my opinion that I think day trading is a *waste of time*.
> 
> Anyways, I gotta get back to work.




LOL. I always thought working for someone else was closer to a waste of time. Especially depressing counting other peoples money 

Anyway you better run along in case your boss cracks your back for wasting valuable billing hours, what is the rate again?? $30 an hour - 1 tick LOLOLOLOLOL


----------



## beamstas (18 May 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyway you better run along in case your boss cracks your back for wasting valuable billing hours, what is the rate again?? $30 an hour - 1 tick LOLOLOLOLOL




Haha never thought about it like that
Working for 1 SPI tick per hour

Makes working a real job seem pathetic


----------



## Uncle Festivus (18 May 2009)

How's your risk appetite - still hungry or still anorexic?

The Dyson money vacuum cleaner has had a few good weeks, thanks to the 'better than expected' rally. Pump it up, issue more shares, live for another qtr?

The fact remains that this is not a recession, it's not even a depression - it's the end of the fractional reserve banking system as we know it - a painful transition to something else, whatever that may be?. Forget about cycles, buying the lows, buy & hold - dead & finished for the average investor. Traders will retire early .

Money (cash) velocity is a big fat ZERO. Central banks have ZERO control now as the shadow system is far & away much bigger, although the GFC has reduced it by several TRILLIONS! 

Lack of shorters - where have all the shorters gone? Prepare for them to open positions again in earnest when the DCB runs out of rhetorical 'green shoots'?

Bull market bunnies are gonna get fried - again.............


----------



## cutz (18 May 2009)

Those green shoots are already starting to wither.


----------



## Bushman (18 May 2009)

Best opportunity to buy positions in hard assets (including commercial property)/commodities for an investment generation.


----------



## Beej (18 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> *The fact remains that this is not a recession, it's not even a depression - it's the end of the fractional reserve banking system as we know it* - a painful transition to something else, whatever that may be?.




You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then 

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## Pappon (18 May 2009)

Beej said:


> You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej





"The RUDD recession" lol


----------



## explod (18 May 2009)

Beej said:


> You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




You can chalk me up also, I stand with Uncle.   The rate of money printing against nothing but debt continues unabated in the US and the UK.  We have the Wiemer Republic doing a late spread.

The value in money (paper) is doomed unless there is a huge about turn to put some actual physical production back in to GDP.

Naaar, just give em some more credit (oh and some handouts too)and they can spend thier way out.   The garbage out of the pollies is spilling over.


----------



## alphaman (18 May 2009)

Warren Buffett doesn't even day trade, so I don't see how one could use Warren Buffett to prove day trading is stupid.

On the other hand, I know many people think they invest like Warren Buffett. But interestingly, with so many books written about value investing, there is still only one oracle today. Why is that?

I think the problem is not the tool or the method, but the user. Most people simply aren't very good, every profession is the same.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 May 2009)

CanOz said:


> You want details on how Berk Hath is doing vs Soros's endowment fund in 2008?
> 
> CanOZ




Actually, I believe this line should not only be applied to 2008.  As far as I am aware, Soros Quantum Funds have returned higher than Buffett over a 30 year period by nearly 10% annually, incredible.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (18 May 2009)

Beej said:


> You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Well I hope I am wrong, but humans being humans then the easy way out will be taken, only delaying the hard actions which should be taken now eg Rudd, Brown etc?

I guess what my underlying point is that don't think things are normal any more as we are in uncharted waters, even for the people to whom the world entrusts to save us/them. 

Bernanke himself has said that he doesn't know the end result of what the Fed & Treasury are doing now because it's never been done before, and also the fact that central banks don't have the capacity to even measure the shadow economy to gauge the effectiveness of the stimulii - they may overshoot or undershoot with equal unknown effect?

My understanding is that in it's simplest from, fractional reserve banking relies on the hope that not all depositors will want their money back, all at the same time. What's happened now is that what has been lent from this leveraged system has then been leveraged yet again several times over ie the shadow banking system if you will, but the returns to repay this leverage have literally vanished overnight, leaving the debtors not being able to repay interest, let alone principle, that is if they can even get a commercial loan on attractive terms - the credit/money velocity is zero. 

Cash is king - $2Trillion is nowhere near enough to compensate for what has been vaporised already in a deflationary recession that shows no signs of bottoming. When the data revisions are revised positively then we have at least a glimmer of some sort of base, but, nothing so far? Think outside the paradigms?

It's possible that the China boom (and any other boom ie property) is and has been based on nothing more than the extravagant largesse of excess credit, leverage and money supplies. Keep an eye on 5/10yr US bonds to see how popular QE is/not....

ABC 7.30 report on the Aus TV stations and debt problems is a classic example of what's going on here. Multiply this globally and you have the GFC. Great Southern 43,000 shareholders and Timbercorp's previous shareholders won't be backing up the truck to partake in any new green shoots bullmarket any time soon. Bit by bit, soured investors will relinquish the appetite for risk and sit it out on the sidelines for a while?


----------



## Temjin (18 May 2009)

Warren Buffet did mention that if there is a stock where he will put all his money in, it will be Well Fargo. It will be interest to see how things will pan out over the years seeing Well Fargo is one of the 18 banks require capital raising with the latest government "stress test" result. (which is obviously, not no where near stressful enough)


----------



## Aussiejeff (19 May 2009)

And today?

_**MEEOWWW - SCRITCH!!**_


----------



## Real1ty (19 May 2009)

Temjin said:


> Warren Buffet did mention that if there is a stock where he will put all his money in, it will be Well Fargo. It will be interest to see how things will pan out over the years seeing Well Fargo is one of the 18 banks require capital raising with the latest government "stress test" result. (which is obviously, not no where near stressful enough)




Interesting though that prior to the stress tests results being released Buffett claimed WF didn't need any extra capital.


----------



## Temjin (19 May 2009)

Real1ty said:


> Interesting though that prior to the stress tests results being released Buffett claimed WF didn't need any extra capital.




And also AFTER it was released, including rumours before too. Citing the results are wrong. 

He does seem to have tremondous confidence with Well Fargos. I say the SEC should let him put his money in his mouth and let him buy every single shares of company and see what happens.


----------



## beamstas (19 May 2009)

Temjin said:


> And also AFTER it was released, including rumours before too. Citing the results are wrong.
> 
> He does seem to have tremondous confidence with Well Fargos. I say the SEC should let him put his money in his mouth and let him buy every single shares of company and see what happens.




If he bought every single share nothing would happen
Think about it
The price would never move
Because he wouldn't buy or sell


----------



## Real1ty (19 May 2009)

Temjin said:


> And also AFTER it was released, including rumours before too




They weren't *rumours* as i saw the interview where he stated it *prior* to the ST's.


----------



## CanOz (19 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> If he bought every single share nothing would happen
> Think about it
> The price would never move
> Because he wouldn't buy or sell




LOL!  Good point.

CanOz


----------



## Beej (19 May 2009)

Is anyone still seriously calling this a dead cat bounce? It must be a kitty made of "flubber" based on the height and number of bounces now!

PS: Did anyone catch this little piece of news???



> Goldman’s, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have apparently applied to repay the $45bn of Tarp funds they received.




From http://www.businessspectator.com.au...e-surge-pd20090519-S6TTJ?OpenDocument&src=sph

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## CanOz (19 May 2009)

Beej said:


> Is anyone still seriously calling this a dead cat bounce? It must be a kitty made of "flubber" based on the height and number of bounces now!
> 
> PS: Did anyone catch this little piece of news???
> 
> ...




Of course they want to repay it, otherwise they're under the watchful eyes of Congress! They can't make money risking little and not coming up with innovative ways to bring down the global financial system can they now?

This bounce will last long enough for the banks to raise the required amount of private capital they need to fuel their toxic balance sheets for the next 6 months.

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus (19 May 2009)

I found this little European country has improved out of site.......it came in 'better than expected' ........ not that fundamentals mean anything


----------



## CanOz (19 May 2009)

Nothing like a credit crisis to suck the life out of GDP. Has there ever been a time when the GDP has declined so rapidly?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Nero64 (19 May 2009)

> Why would anyone declare the worth of their portfolio ?, unless they were lying, or just trying to impress




Here is a link from the Bull website titled:

*How those in the know make money - and lots of it *

Talk about bragging. 

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=3071


----------



## GumbyLearner (19 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I found this little European country has improved out of site.......it came in 'better than expected' ........ not that fundamentals mean anything




Thanks for the facts Unc.

Noticed that VW accumulated a stack of Porsche stock throughout last year. Now the supposed "merger"/"takeover" has been put on hold.
Hopefully not *too* many of VW's suppliers will close their factories.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> And today?
> 
> _**MEEOWWW - SCRITCH!!**_





Oh come on now puffy, the Americans haven`t got another "downward volatile" left in them.


----------



## Naked shorts (19 May 2009)

Abcguy said:


> I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.




Why dont you walk over to your book shelf, pick up Buffetology, look at the back section containing all the super fantastic companies that will never ever go bankrupt and W.B. wants to have babies with, and please tell me how many of those companies have filed for bankruptcy. No I'm serious, do it.


----------



## Naked shorts (19 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Makes working a real job seem pathetic





*taps nose*


----------



## beamstas (20 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Here is a link from the Bull website titled:
> 
> *How those in the know make money - and lots of it *
> 
> ...




*LOLOLOLOLOL*

"But Fogarty also looks to buy over-sold blue chips and Macquarie Group provided a tidy $28,000 windfall in a single day. When Macquarie fell to $26 a share in September last year, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Fogarty bought the shares. *The next day, Fogarty sold the shares for $33*. “The company had been clearly over-sold as a result of panic,” Fogarty says “*Had Macquarie’s share price fell after buying it, I would have held the stock and waited for a recovery.* After all, it was Macquarie - a blue chip company with a solid earnings history.  I bought Westpac at $22 and bought more when it fell to $14.75. I’m confident it will rebound.” "


----------



## Bushman (20 May 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> *taps nose*




Lol; should be 'taps side of head'.


----------



## MR. (20 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> "But Fogarty also looks to buy over-sold blue chips and Macquarie Group provided a tidy $28,000 windfall in a single day. When Macquarie fell to $26 a share in September last year, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Fogarty bought the shares. *The next day, Fogarty sold the shares for $33*. “The company had been clearly over-sold as a result of panic,” Fogarty says “*Had Macquarie’s share price fell after buying it, I would have held the stock and waited for a recovery.* After all, it was Macquarie - a blue chip company with a solid earnings history.  I bought Westpac at $22 and bought more when it fell to $14.75. I’m confident it will rebound.” "




Clearly over-sold compared to what? Where the price was! .... 

Wonder how he did with Centro? "After all, it was Centro - a blue chip company with a solid earnings history."


----------



## Temjin (20 May 2009)

Real1ty said:


> They weren't *rumours* as i saw the interview where he stated it *prior* to the ST's.




Sorry, I really meant that rumours about how much the banks may need to rise BEFORE the release of the stress results. There were plenty of "leaked" results around back then. (which came out accurate)

But it does not matter anyway. The stress test was nothing more than a disguise on how deep the hole those banks are in. 



			
				Nero64 said:
			
		

> Here is a link from the Bull website titled:
> 
> *How those in the know make money - and lots of it *
> 
> ...




Ok, that's more than enough to tell me this is a definite dead cat bounce!

Seriously, have anybody actually DIGGED out the latest global economic fundamental data to see how much "better" (or worse off) since the low March??? 

Yes, things have certainly slowed down a bit. This is because if it continues to fall at last quarter (or end of quarter 2008) speed of pace, the world will be WITHOUT an economy in merely a few years. It was too fast and too hard, literally off the cliff if you looked at certain charts. (not stock charts!) 

Does a "slowdown" in worsening economic data automatically mean everything is finally over and we will go back to a new, roaring bull market and expect 30% p.a. return??? 

Well, some people actually thinks so because their "bull" market mindset hasn't been sufficiently damaged enough yet. People still think the 2000-2007 boom conditions (with record cheap credit availability) will be back next year.


----------



## beamstas (20 May 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> *taps nose*




I don't understand :homer:


----------



## Naked shorts (20 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> I don't understand :homer:



1:48 is key


----------



## wonderrman (20 May 2009)

> Does a "slowdown" in worsening economic data automatically mean everything is finally over and we will go back to a new, roaring bull market and expect 30% p.a. return???




G'day, yes I think this out cry regarding a global economic recovery by year end is quite staggering. People forget that the economy is not the stock market and just because we have gone up quite a bit over the past two months does not mean we have recovered economically. This thought is really quite stupid. The powers that be above us are very good at manipulating markets and the massive "stimuli" and money printing does not fix the root of the problem - that the world is indebted to the heavens. It is bewildering to me that people can think this crisis is over when this root cause is still there. We know one thing though - governments will never learn and they only prolong the problem by this money printing. 

Just because our economy will not recover for a while doesn't mean asset markets cannot further rally. Bits and pieces of "not as bad" news will help this and we must remember that we were in a very oversold stage. We must also remember that governments are doing everything they can to go into capital deficits to print money to help asset markets appreciate. It is important to remember that this can cause a lot of volatility in asset markets, like we have seen over the past few weeks. 

I always find the Buffett way of investing quite funny. Relying on someone else who has no care for you for 2, 3, 4, or 5 yrs does not make any sense to me. Predicting what the economy and investment environment is going to be like years out is arrogant. Good luck to the 1% of people who make money Buffett's way. I'm sure you can, but I don't have any patients for it.

W.


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Good luck to the 1% of people who make money Buffett's way. I'm sure you can, but I don't have any patients for it.




But where are they??

A few people here trade full time punting away with TA and common sense and FA to varying degrees making 100s to many many 1000s of trades year in year out. 

More getting good to great returns on a part time basis.

But where are the tested successful Buffettoligist?? 

hint - Survivorship bias :


----------



## wonderrman (20 May 2009)

A good book that highlights the damage that has been caused to our economies is Liars Poker by Michael Lewis and his most recent article, can't remember what it is called but it sitting on my desk somewhere. It is very good and explains what occurred in trading floors all around the globe for the past 20 or so years.

The fact that everyone thinks we can push higher and we are "out of trouble" worries me. When ever a thought makes it way to gospel, the greatest risk is in the opposite direction. Following the crowd is thought to be bad for ones wealth. This uptrend may continue to occur in the short-term, but as people pile in on the pull backs the inevitable contraction could be very painful. 

W.


----------



## wonderrman (20 May 2009)

> But where are the tested successful Buffettoligist??




Should I have said .01%? : I don't know where they are and don't really care to much. As they say, each to their own. W.


----------



## Glen48 (20 May 2009)

What will Glen Stevens and DR Henry feel once they find out we will have 4.5% growth in 2010 only there will be - sign in front.


----------



## RayG (20 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> G'day, yes I think this out cry regarding a global economic recovery by year end is quite staggering. People forget that the economy is not the stock market and just because we have gone up quite a bit over the past two months does not mean we have recovered economically. This thought is really quite stupid. The powers that be above us are very good at manipulating markets and the massive "stimuli" and money printing does not fix the root of the problem - that the world is indebted to the heavens. It is bewildering to me that people can think this crisis is over when this root cause is still there. We know one thing though - governments will never learn and they only prolong the problem by this money printing.




Ummm.... not sure what you are getting at here, debt is not the issue, the issue is whether that debt is sustainable...  The concept of state debt is quite different to personal debt.  The ability of an individual to borrow is limited by the ability to repay the debt over time. For state debt that time is not constrained by the lifespan of an individual,  borrowing can create wealth provided it is invested wisely, plant and equipment, infrastructure, education, health etc.. etc..

The prophet's of doom be they right or wrong seem to be on a crusade of almost religious intensity.   

My counter argument is as follows..

The market is driven by sentiment, in it's simplest terms fear versus greed.  The fear (hello bears) has abated in the last month or so and greed (hello bulls) has started to emerge again.  In order for the markets to crash again, there needs to be a significant event that scares everybody once again...  a few missed earnings and slightly lower than expected GDP ain't gonna do it.  A war or major flu epidemic might be the trigger.. 



wonderrman said:


> Just because our economy will not recover for a while doesn't mean asset markets cannot further rally. Bits and pieces of "not as bad" news will help this and we must remember that we were in a very oversold stage. We must also remember that governments are doing everything they can to go into capital deficits to print money to help asset markets appreciate. It is important to remember that this can cause a lot of volatility in asset markets, like we have seen over the past few weeks.
> 
> <snip>
> W.




Here I agree with you, we were oversold, and now we are probably a little bit over bought, volatility has been decreasing however, not rising have a look at the VIX.

This I thought was pretty appropriate....
The cat came back...  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kj1Fsf9a2U

Regards
Ray


----------



## cutz (20 May 2009)

G'Day RayG,

You touched on greed and fear but i think you may have it the wrong way round, my take is the bulls are being driven by the fear of missing out on the next bull market, in the mean time the bears driven by greed (no offence intended bears  )are laying on the shorts in expectation of a quick buck.

I may or may not be correct, it's just the way i see it.


----------



## drsmith (20 May 2009)

Perhaps an interesting question here is what potential triggers could upset current trends in credit markets.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=10750


----------



## Real1ty (20 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> The *fact* that *everyone* thinks we can push higher and we are "out of trouble" worries me.
> W.




These are the sort of incorrect generalisations that really get my goat.

*EVERYONE* thinks we are out of trouble and can push higher do they?

Sorry but that is absolute BS.

Sure there is a more positive sentiment in the market atm but IMO for each person who thinks we MIGHT continue to push higher or that the news is less severe there are more people who will counter that with talk of a sucker rally and others that are still talking depression.

There is still a heap of money sitting on the sidelines.Is it *FACT* also that they think we will push higher and are out of trouble


----------



## So_Cynical (20 May 2009)

I reckon market sentiment turned in March....there no fear of holding over the weekend anymore...and its like buy anything, wait 2 weeks and take a profit....Well almost anything.


----------



## nomore4s (20 May 2009)

All off topic posts have been moved to this thread. You can continue your tiff over there.


----------



## wonderrman (21 May 2009)

I am very pissed off. I had just written a reply to all these posts and my internet crashed. I will have to rewrite tonight. Sorry but this computer is spastic.

wonder.


----------



## Bafana (21 May 2009)

My money's  on the Dead Cat.

Still got local housing bust to go through yet and the construction indusrty is showing signs of slowing down. Government spend is up but only a few can feed at the table of infrastructure spend.


----------



## wonderrman (21 May 2009)

I’m sorry just got back to my computer now to have time to respond.



> debt is not the issue, the issue is whether that debt is sustainable... The concept of state debt is quite different to personal debt.




I would suggest that debt has never been sustainable in economies (over the long-term). History tells us that when ever this un-natural beast has entered an economy and grows it must eventually be removed. I had a chart that shows this but can’t seem to find it. I don’t think anything has changed that has made debt sustainable in an economy. You could argue that the removal of the gold standard where money had to be connected to value has changed this. I will do some more reading and study into this and make a comment.

You comment on the difference between state and personal debt is taken on board. State debt is funded by the international capital flows of the world. When this dries up, which leads to change in the worlds “super power” – currently the US, it can cause great grief to the country and its debt. We must remember that the fate of any investment is in the hand of others, we must also remember that the stronger the currency, hence the availability for funding of state debt is a geopolitical issue. I don’t think troops will be landing on US soil for some time. When they do, and when the US is not a super power and because an unsound investment for the many countries around the world they will have problems with “state debt”. This is a very long-term issue though.



> EVERYONE thinks we are out of trouble and can push higher do they?




Hello, well if you look at the McClellan Oscillator which is a momentum indicator it has turned negative. This can identify overbought and oversold stages and is very good. I would argue that the market usually feel very confident over nothing and this proves to end up bitting them on the bum. As I mentioned in a previous post yesterday this rally could continue due to “lesser bad news” and capital injections by the Federal Reserve’s of our world. I feel that money could continue to be put in the markets on perceived pull backs before we get some very poor news in Sep/Oct/Nov as this could prove to be the worst of the economic news. This could see a new down leg emerge. We must remember that the economy is not the stock market and I do not see us making new highs anytime soon with still such a poor economy. 




People compare this period to the Great Depression. That period was a whole lot different economically but it lasted a lot longer on the stock market. I do not see this “bear market” over as yet because of the many reasons I have mentioned in previous posts and in this threads. I haven't even mentioned commercial property markets of this world either and the problems associated with tax hikes around the globe as governments try to replace previous income.

Wonder.


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I haven't even mentioned commercial property markets of this world either and *the problems associated with tax hikes around the globe as governments try to replace previous income*.
> 
> Wonder.




No problem. Gum-mint$ have bailed out their buddies in the Big Bwank$ with uber-truckloads of yummy hoi-poloi ca$h.

So, surely those same indebted, loyal, now-ca$h-flu$h Bwank$ can now afford to bailout their buddies in the poor, bleeding Gum-mint$?

It's just a money-go-round, after all! _La-la-la-la-laaaah!_ :bananasmi


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (22 May 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> But where are the tested successful Buffettoligist??
> 
> hint - Survivorship bias :




Aren't they still waiting for the long term? 
LOL


----------



## Awesomandy (22 May 2009)

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Aren't they still waiting for the long term?
> LOL




In any case, we probably won't hear from them until they turn 60. 

For the time being, I say we should just let people think that there will be a recovery at the end of the year. Apart from the few of us who knows better, hope is the only left for most of the general public at this stage.


----------



## MrBurns (22 May 2009)

I think we're due for another large downturn, all the BS thats been going around doesnt fix real probelems.


----------



## GumbyLearner (22 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> No problem. Gum-mint$ have bailed out their buddies in the Big Bwank$ with uber-truckloads of yummy hoi-poloi ca$h.
> 
> So, surely those same indebted, loyal, now-ca$h-flu$h Bwank$ can now afford to bailout their buddies in the poor, bleeding Gum-mint$?
> 
> It's just a money-go-round, after all! _La-la-la-la-laaaah!_ :bananasmi




As Oliver would say... "Please Sir, can I have some more."
Probably already factored into the market though 


*US Treasury injects $US7b more into GMAC*
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...njects-us7b-more-into-gmac-20090522-bhjw.html


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 May 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> As Oliver would say... "Please Sir, can I have some more."
> Probably already factored into the market though
> 
> 
> ...




Indeed, Gumby 

BTW does anyone know what the TOTAL staggering cost _so far_ for the US Treasury aka "The American Taxpayer" to bailout both GM & GMAC amounts to?


----------



## investorpaul (22 May 2009)

If this does continue and forms another down leg I wonder if the short selling ban will be extended for the banks.

I dont think they will because they said the main reason the ban was extended was to allow for capital raising's, given most have completed this they dont seem to have an argument for extending it again. 

Im lining up a few short CFD trades on the banks should this down leg continue and the ban be lifted.


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## Temjin (22 May 2009)

No one ever ponder the question how public debt can ever raise faster than GDP forever. It's mathematically unsustainable. So simple to understand, yet the green shots ignore it. 

The same goes for private debt. It can never raise faster than income growth because interest rate will never go negative. 

Now since S&P is downgrading the Pound outlook from "neutral" to "negative", you can be VERY SURE that they will do the same for the US dollar. And potentially Aussie dollar one day when our government realise this is not a typical recession because it was originated from a financial crisis! Historically, recessions (or depression) resulted from financial crisis last MUCH LONGER than a typical one. Their budget forecast will be totally off and will put our country into an even higher deficit. 

I just don't understand the mindset of these green shots. Until they are all beaten down and sincerely believe there is no hope for the equity market, then any rallies will still be a dead cat bounce.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (22 May 2009)

investorpaul said:


> If this does continue and forms another down leg I wonder if the short selling ban will be extended for the banks.
> 
> I dont think they will because they said the main reason the ban was extended was to allow for capital raising's, given most have completed this they dont seem to have an argument for extending it again.
> 
> Im lining up a few short CFD trades on the banks should this down leg continue and the ban be lifted.




You can short financials in the ASX50 using ASX CFDs. The spread is not great but if you take some time you can get better entries and exits.


----------



## investorpaul (22 May 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> You can short financials in the ASX50 using ASX CFDs. The spread is not great but if you take some time you can get better entries and exits.




thanks MS Trade I didnt know that, I only use IG markets at the moment but I did get all the paperwork from commsec to trade ASX CFDs i better fill it out quick smart.


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## MS+Tradesim (22 May 2009)

InvestorPaul,

They have some quirks. Keep an eye on the "Notices" section to see how corporate actions, changes in margins etc affect them.

http://www.asx.com.au/products/cfds/features/index.htm


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## Aussiejeff (22 May 2009)

Dead cat bounce?

Hark, the meece are coming - armed with little picks & shovels to bury the stinking moggy.


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## RayG (22 May 2009)

Cutz]
You touched on greed and fear but i think you may have it the wrong way round said:


> I just don't understand the mindset of these green shots. Until they are all beaten down and sincerely believe there is no hope for the equity market, then any rallies will still be a dead cat bounce.




I would like to see some hard data, but I have heard several commentators say in recent weeks, that there is the highest ratio of cash (sitting on the sidelines) to equities, in history. If true then there are a large number of investors who have missed the rally, when they finally relent and get back into the market the real rally will kick in,  

The question in my mind, is how much of a drop will it take before the fear of missing the buying opportunity of a lifetime gets that money back in play. 

Gazing into crystal ball..... XAO = 3500 magically swims into view..

Then the real fun begins...

Regards
Ray


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## Wheep0 (23 May 2009)

RayG said:


> Probably just playing with words, but I understand it as follows.
> Greed is a bullish sentiment (buy buy buy), and fear is a bearish sentiment.  (Ok you can call bears who short-sell greedy), but generally, bearish sentiment is fear of stock prices falling (sell sell sell), that the world is about to end == doom and gloom == bearish
> 
> 
> ...





Small retrace ahead, ripple effect +/- 100 point scenario for a week or so, S&P 500, DJIA should bounce of the retrace end next week. Yanks love a good holiday as well and will come out feeling warm and cosy, news last week was one negative after another and still the DJIA held the weekly ripple pattern..Just got to ask yourself ,how long can the negatives keep coming.. firmly believe we are getting ready for a global upturn by middle Q4.. Market will take that in with the usual 4- 6 months pre note sentiment and that coupled with the unprecendented sell off over the last 8 months will make very interesting times.  Got to be in it to win it...

I held all my long positions..decided this world in 2009/ 2010 just got to much catch up to do for me to sell anything out, took me 6 months to have the balance I want, even though profits could be taken now that are pretty awesome, just to much upside over the next 24 months for me to even think of selling up now..
My bulk buying was done and dusted in Feb / March , now to let the seeds grow.

Black swans, well cant rule those out for sure, but truly feel we have had the fill of them for the next few years...Im more than happy to keep an amber alert up on my long term positions.. 

Follow your own head, do what you feel is right, everyone is different, with their own views on where we are going...

Carpe diem.
Wheep0


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (23 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Black swans, well cant rule those out for sure, but truly feel we have had the fill of them for the next few years...Im more than happy to keep an amber alert up on my long term positions..
> 
> Wheep0




Maybe it is my personal interpretation, but black swans are unpredictable and by the time it hits you would be in the red already.

Of course traders/managers say they will be sufficiently ready for the next black swan....and so the cycle repeats itself


----------



## zacaxel1975 (23 May 2009)

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Maybe it is my personal interpretation, but black swans are unpredictable




Its the white swans that are predictable, everyone sees those suckers coming, the black ones fly up your a-hole before you even feel your cheeks tingle.


----------



## mazzatelli1000 (23 May 2009)

zacaxel1975 said:


> Its the white swans that are predictable, everyone sees those suckers coming, the black ones fly up your a-hole before you even feel your cheeks tingle.




Ill remember this analogy, will keep my feet firmly on the ground when trading
haha


----------



## zacaxel1975 (23 May 2009)

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Ill remember this analogy, will keep my feet firmly on the ground when trading
> haha




May your trading be swan fee


----------



## Trevor_S (24 May 2009)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124302634866648217.html

I know most of you don't think much of Messrs. Graham or  Bufett, none the less I thought the above article interesting in the context of this thread.



> Even after recent turbulence, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up roughly 30% since its low in March. It is natural for you to feel happy or relieved about that. But Benjamin Graham believed, instead, that you should train yourself to feel worried about such event


----------



## Uncle Festivus (24 May 2009)

So is this the logic of the permabulls - 

"the market has gone down, so now it _must_ go back up"

"surely all the bad news has been priced in"

"the market is forward looking, so according to previous reccessions which lasted [insert timeframe here] we will now see the end of the current recession within [insert timeframe here] months"

"I/we can see green shoots in the economy" (translation - things are still gettting worse, just not at an parabolic rate anymore???)

How about putting some facts and figures forward to support your views, rather than basing your case for a new sustainable bull market on hope, and the continued & co-ordinated rhetoric from the Goldman Sachs cheer squad & vested interests??

For the best that can be made at this point is that we could be in for an L shaped period of golbal economic stagnation, Japanes style, for years to come.

Remember, all those buy & hold investors who purchased shares after about November 2004 are, at best, only breaking even - not exactly the types to start buying in any hurry?

Then you have the self funded retirees - taking a serious haircut on their portfolios - may have to work longer, taking employment away from the new generations of school leavers?

This is a sytemic change in the world economy; it's going to take a lot longer to sort this one out, if at all?


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## Uncle Festivus (24 May 2009)

Trevor_S said:


> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124302634866648217.html
> 
> I know most of you don't think much of Messrs. Graham or Bufett, none the less I thought the above article interesting in the context of this thread.




So, in his opinion, stocks are back to being fully priced, on a P/E metric? Where's the next leg up going to come from? Especially if another downward revision in the E part of the equation eventuates, which would make the current stock values overbought?



> Above all, that means resisting the contagion of Mr. Market's enthusiasm when stocks are suddenly no longer cheap.



Buffett has recently been reported to have stopped buying _anything_, because he is low on cash after his disasterous investment losses and 'opportunistic' forays into Fed subsidiaries like Wells Fargo. He's well and truly latched onto the US Fed's gravy train. How about this black swan - Buffett files for Bankruptcy?


----------



## Glen48 (24 May 2009)

Weeds start of as green shoots as well.. these one are planted in toxic debt so they are doomed to die just like Fairyruddmother one term in office.


----------



## Temjin (24 May 2009)

RayG said:


> Probably just playing with words, but I understand it as follows.
> Greed is a bullish sentiment (buy buy buy), and fear is a bearish sentiment.  (Ok you can call bears who short-sell greedy), but generally, bearish sentiment is fear of stock prices falling (sell sell sell), that the world is about to end == doom and gloom == bearish




For a person to be bearish on the stock market does not necessary mean he/she is bearish on practically anything with the economy. If you have followed the commentaries of those very independent analysts/investors who have long predicted this crisis and have acted to protect themselves, along with advice to profit from this, you will know they taking FULL ADVANTAGE of this "gloom and doom". 

There will always been a bull market within a bear market. The stock market cannot be seen as a single entity. Being bearish on the financial sector does not mean being bearish on the resource/energy/precious metal sector, especially on the lower end. 



			
				RayG said:
			
		

> I would like to see some hard data, but I have heard several commentators say in recent weeks, that there is the highest ratio of cash (sitting on the sidelines) to equities, in history. If true then there are a large number of investors who have missed the rally, when they finally relent and get back into the market the real rally will kick in,
> 
> The question in my mind, is how much of a drop will it take before the fear of missing the buying opportunity of a lifetime gets that money back in play.
> 
> ...




You have only followed the "greenshot" commentators and none from those who have predicted the crisis. 

I have included an attachment as part of the hard data. There are plenty more out there, but it's totally scattered. Barry Ritholtz from the famous Big Picture Blog has recommended his readers to follow David A Rosenheg's daily commentary. It's a very good read in my opinion.

Remember, whether we will have a recovery will largely dependent on the US. You cannot have a bull market in the ASX200 and a bear market in DOW JONES.


----------



## wonderrman (24 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> So is this the logic of the permabulls -
> 
> "the market has gone down, so now it _must_ go back up"
> 
> ...




AMEN!


----------



## Wheep0 (24 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> So is this the logic of the permabulls -
> 
> "the market has gone down, so now it _must_ go back up"
> 
> ...




Facts, history is your fact..Basic modern history will tell you that
If at all?  
Donnie Darko sentiment there.....
Trouble is majority of bear`s are seeing the end of their own bull market,seen a glimpse already in the last 2 months and they dont really like it one bit.
You can quote a host of media frenzied bear forecasters into what they think,
reality is bulls pay as much attention to those as we do our wives...
forward thinking, so what if it takes 2 -3 years.  Agree it will, but hey I cant see we gonna drop to a new low from here, as much as you all hope it will to satisfy your negativity and pessimism.

My buyings done on a 3600 - 3200 index.....50% job done...
12-36 months.   Sell- job complete !
You lot will still be moaning and trying to short sell.
wheep0


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## RayG (24 May 2009)

Temjin said:


> You have only followed the "greenshot" commentators and none from those who have predicted the crisis.
> 
> I have included an attachment as part of the hard data. There are plenty more out there, but it's totally scattered. Barry Ritholtz from the famous Big Picture Blog has recommended his readers to follow David A Rosenheg's daily commentary. It's a very good read in my opinion.





Thanks for that it's a good read,  he seems pretty level headed.  I read some of the gloom and doom blogs, as well as mainstream "greenshoot" spin.

See what you think of this guy..
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/

Regards
Ray


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## wonderrman (24 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> You lot will still be moaning and trying to short sell.






Wheep0 said:


> as much as you all hope it will to satisfy your negativity and pessimism.




Some people's ignorance really is amazing. It is hard to believe that people can think the money-printing governments of our world can get away with pouring dollars into the system, with out there being any negative implications in the future. I posted the chart below in the Gold thread but it is relevant here. The "quantitative easing" through the creation of new governments bonds has the potential to unsettle the foundations of the United States thrown as the world's global "powerhouse". China is no longer buyer the dollar and if the world follows no one will be buying there bonds, their capital deficits and massive public debt will be unfunded. Surely this does not bode well for equity markets (with in the US) over the coming five to ten years?




In the next bull market we may see markets rally, but in real terms it may not mean anything. The Dow could go up 100% but the US dollar may depreciate by 50%. This is because of what the governments are doing now to fool the public that we are finally getting out of this crisis. Massive monetary stimuli causes people to speculate as their cash is worthless, savers are being penalised, money enters the system but it leads to extremely volatile markets which makes predicting very hard. 

Wake up to what is happening in the world around you. I don't know how the public can trust the dishonest people in Bernanke, Geithner and Larry Summers to solve the problem when they caused the problem.

In saying this that doesn't mean there is no money to be made. There is a whole world of investments out there.


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## Uncle Festivus (25 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Facts, history is your fact..Basic modern history will tell you that
> If at all?
> Donnie Darko sentiment there.....
> Trouble is majority of bear`s are seeing the end of their own bull market,seen a glimpse already in the last 2 months and they dont really like it one bit.
> ...





Sounds like a plan then, based on...? Guesswork, historical precedence? Can any of the permabulls put forward some facts or data to support their arguments?? rather than hope and guesses?

Maybe you could post the statistic that people in the US are now buying property, instead of being foreclosed, except for the fact that it doesn't exist?

Or maybe you can ignore the facts - 

 - that Chinese unemployment is now approaching 30 MILLION and have a glut of un-sellable steel? The stimulis is going into building modern factories ie less workers, making things nobody wants. 30M people competing for jobs paying $1.50 per hr - not going to buy a plazma screen with that then are they?

- public debt to GDP in Britain is approaching 100%

- April US tax receipts the first deficit in 26 years!!

- US budget has already blown out from 1.2TRILLION deficit to ???? name your multi trillion figure?

- *18,000 people a DAY are losing their jobs in the US!
*
- etc etc etc

I don't care which way it goes, I trade both ways. But believe in your assumption at your peril, again. A suckers, manipulated rally.......please to relieve you of your remaining savings....say the big boys in on the con......


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## nunthewiser (25 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I don't care which way it goes, I trade both ways. But believe in your assumption at your peril, again. A suckers, manipulated rally.......please to relieve you of your remaining savings....say the big boys in on the con......





and relieve them it will ..........

amen


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## RayG (25 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Sounds like a plan then, based on...? Guesswork, historical precedence? Can any of the permabulls put forward some facts or data to support their arguments?? rather than hope and guesses?
> 
> <snip>
> 
> I don't care which way it goes, I trade both ways. But believe in your assumption at your peril, again. A suckers, manipulated rally.......please to relieve you of your remaining savings....say the big boys in on the con......




Dr Smith posted this link a few days back, it's worthwhile to pause and see what the credit markets are doing... 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=10750

There are now in excess of 800 or so large stimulus packages, by various governments around the world,  the cat has plenty to feed on for a while...

I might agree with some of what the doom and gloom loonies are pushing, but the reality is, the market isn't trading on fundamentals, it's trading on pure sentiment... no logic required.... 

Regards
Ray


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## Wheep0 (25 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> and relieve them it will ..........
> 
> amen




Well my portfolio is certainly releaving my expensive lifestyle nunthewiser.
Fantastic...
Its great on a down day to see 8 of my 11 stocks in the green.

Guys , guess what, what you are quoting about a global meltdown has been a part of the global financial story since time and memorial.

A lot of same old same old..... zzzz, go back to any time in history and you can find the same total pessimism, and doomsday foreboding.. Well we not there yet and sorry to say to most , we wont be there this time....

Uncle festimus, my rational is nothing but gut instinct, common sense and belief in the future. Market expert I am not and dont profess to be.. So that shoud stand me in good steed then..

Luck to the brave and forward thinkers
wheep0


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## nunthewiser (25 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Well my portfolio is certainly releaving my expensive lifestyle nunthewiser.
> Fantastic...
> Its great on a down day to see 8 of my 11 stocks in the green.
> 
> wheep0




im still waiting on those statements darl , so until such time 
keep on dreaming

oh by the way today was great for me also only red holding was MTS but hey i can live in its trading channel .


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## Wheep0 (25 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> and relieve them it will ..........
> 
> amen






nunthewiser said:


> im still waiting on those statements darl , so until such time
> keep on dreaming
> 
> oh by the way today was great for me also only red holding was MTS but hey i can live in its trading channel .




 ha ha. no offence ducks
I will mail u a few select snipps of my buys since October 08
Be patient sweet heart..


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## nunthewiser (25 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> ha ha. no offence ducks
> I will mail u a few select snipps of my buys since October 08
> Be patient sweet heart..




i would have thought u have had more than enough time to knock up some fake statements by now ....

geez m8 perhaps you should ask naked shorts to give you a hand 

have a great evening


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## wonderrman (25 May 2009)

> the market isn't trading on fundamentals, it's trading on pure sentiment... no logic required....




We'll you could say that is how markets always perform. It is the sentiment, or thought of the masses and their collective intelligence and stupidity. 


I would argue though that the fundamental reasoning behind this rally is the massive monetary printing and stimuli implemented by the dishonest people at the top of the United States.

Now of course as the US are still the economic and geopolitical powerhouse of this world global indicies basically follow what they are doing. Emerging countries around the globe have experienced the rally since March but most have not been printing money and inflating the bond markets like their Western world counterparts. 

The Baltic Dry Index which measures international shipping has rebounded quite substantially. One could link this to the emerging economies of our world demonstrating their rebound potential. They were indeed down to 1980 area lows last November. This was unlike the Western world (US/UK/Aus) etc that were only really off about 10 years.  If the US went back to 1980 equity prices the S&P would have been at ~100! I think one could content that Asian markets most likely have seen the "bottom" in equities (80/20 probability). That is because of the simple fact of the extent of their decline. They also did not make new lows back in March 6 of this year. This does not mean they cannot decline again to new lows though, I could be very wrong. 




The US/European geographic area I would not be so sure though. Actually, I definitely would not be sure. There is no way they are out of trouble yet, not by any means. This includes Australia. The Western world as I have mentioned are trying to inflate their way out of trouble. I will not re-post the graph I have so to not bore regular readers but the extent of the printing on a real terms and compared to previous statistics over a thirty year period is amazing. 

I have to go so I will leave this post for the moment and add later.

 Wonder.


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## wonderrman (25 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Well my portfolio is certainly releaving my expensive lifestyle nunthewiser.
> Fantastic...
> Its great on a down day to see 8 of my 11 stocks in the green.




Nothing like a bull market, upside correction, bear market rally, dead cat bounce - what ever you want to call it to fool the stupid man.


----------



## Real1ty (25 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Nothing like a bull market, upside correction, bear market rally, dead cat bounce - what ever you want to call it to fool the stupid man.




While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.


----------



## wonderrman (25 May 2009)

Real1ty said:


> While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.




The stupid man is the one who is in the rally and gloats because they think it is *him* that has caused his gains not the luck of being in the market at the time. I myself was in the rally too but you don't see me or others tooting our horn.

I wonder if wheepo was in the market for the 18 months of downward price action prior to this rally? :

wonder.


----------



## beamstas (25 May 2009)

TOOT TOOT 
:alcohol:
:hammer:
:bs:
:bier:



:hide:


----------



## Wheep0 (25 May 2009)

Real1ty said:


> While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.




Reality,
Matters little what anyone believes, just think of me in my parallel universe where this could have happened if it makes you feel better.
My buys were made from Ocotber 15th until March 30th.
I am just doing a little fine tuning now.
I obviously cannot post my holding amounts and prices I paid without posting evidence, and im not going to do that without ensuring I keep my privacy so suppose its a bit of stale mate.
need less to say and again lets look at this parallel universe, I have a substantial 7 figure monoply money portfolio of quality blue chip and mid tier stocks all bought at the height of dispair and captilulation. I did not bait anyone to sell, I have never shorted, I have in fact been bullish from the very first stock I bought I October 2008.

I have not been a a part of this rally, so quite why everyone feels I am the sucker is beyond me. My buying was complete before this rally even started. Market would have to drop to below 3200, and oil to below $32 which is where it was when I was ploughing in and stay there for me to lose a cent..

Does that make me a sucker, a realist, a gambler, or an astute invester with guts and positive forward thinking to take this once in a lifetime opportunity?

Look inwards to your own weaknesses , fears, lack of ambition and short falls before you cast judgements on others!

oh you bears, 
wheep0


----------



## Wheep0 (25 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> The stupid man is the one who is in the rally and gloats because they think it is *him* that has caused his gains not the luck of being in the market at the time. I myself was in the rally too but you don't see me or others tooting our horn.
> 
> I wonder if wheepo was in the market for the 18 months of downward price action prior to this rally? :
> 
> wonder.




Wonderman
Never invested a cent before Ocotober 2008..
and wont invest a cent after Ocotber 2010
Im not a market expert.
I do however know quality blue chip acutely oversold stocks.
I recognise a once in my lifetime opportunity for a 2-3 year hold period
I know my modern history, I have an MBA in it.
I also know that oil is only going to go one way and stay there

Horses for courses, 
Its the bottom of the bear market, why would I be scared.
does that make me really stupid?

wheep0


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Wonderman
> Never invested a cent before Ocotober 2008..
> and wont invest a cent after Ocotber 2010
> Im not a market expert.
> ...




Weeping woozier. Why don't you pull your head in. You more than likely are full of it. Its all to easy to take a screen shot of your statements and blank out a couple of details - but nothing. 

To bang on like you have on one hindsight unproven call is really embarrassing. Plenty do this stuff day in day out over a very long period here and in real time and you keep on banging on for what??

One call thats not proven? What a poor joke! Grow up or go away. 

And for god sake don't tell anyone you have a MBA. We have already lost enough respect for you :


----------



## jet328 (25 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I will not re-post the graph I have so to not bore regular readers but the extent of the printing on a real terms and compared to previous statistics over a thirty year period is amazing.




I think you make some good points. On the money printing side, I think this article is well worth the read just to hear the opposite side of the argument

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/humpty-dumpty-on-inflation.html

IMO we still have plenty of time in this deflationary period. The fed has so far bought $150bn of 'assets' with its printed money, thats like a happy meal these days and they can go upto $300bn per quarter from memory. Compare that to the massive destruction in credit.....  and then consider that all this printed money will just sit on bank balance sheets while they continue deleveraging + writing off
There is huge excess world capacity, a rush to pay down debt (except FHB's & govt.), a move to cheaper offshore labour and rising unemployment. Inflation will return one day but not for a while in my view


----------



## wonderrman (25 May 2009)

jet328 said:


> On the money printing side, I think this article is well worth the read just to hear the opposite side of the argument
> 
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/humpty-dumpty-on-inflation.html




Thank you for the link I am very tired and going to bed. Will check out tomorrow.

wonder.


----------



## GumbyLearner (25 May 2009)

What are your thoughts on inflation Wheep0?


----------



## Eternal Prime (26 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> The stupid man is the one who is in the rally and gloats because they think it is *him* that has caused his gains not the luck of being in the market at the time. I myself was in the rally too but you don't see me or others tooting our horn.
> 
> I wonder if wheepo was in the market for the 18 months of downward price action prior to this rally? :
> 
> wonder.






Real1ty said:


> While i don't believe a word that wheepo says, i would say the stupid man is the one who has been OUT of the rally, not the one in it.




How about those of us who like to short? Are we stupid for not been in the current rally?
I for one have been extremely active since Jan 2007 up until Nov2008. Waiting for the right time to get back in.
Disregard all of the c**p that a few participants have claimed on this thread and lets discuss honestly without bias the topic of this thread.


----------



## GumbyLearner (26 May 2009)

What does the Top Cop at the US Federal Reserve know?


----------



## Temjin (26 May 2009)

Am I not surprised that Wheepo ignored the "Trading Claims" thread and continue to defend his ego in this thread?  

The way you announced your education in MBA has certainly revealed a lot of things about you. 

By the way, the stock market is NOT CHEAP by any historic standards. It was not during the March low and certainly not now.

Using Robert Shiller's 10 yhears trend in normalized earnings for the S&P500 Index, after adjusting for inflation, the P/E ratio is still at 13 in low March. That is NOT CHEAP by any historic standard. 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10737.html



> *If long term valuations revert back to the low P/E ratios reached at the end of the LAST secular bear market in the early 1980s (normalized P/E of about 8) … that means the S&P 500 could, conceivably, FALL another 50 percent in value from here!*




And no, don't go telling me earnings for S&P500 is totally unrelated to the Australian stock market. You would be totally naive to believe the US stock market cannot affect the sentiment in our Aussie one. 

But like I said again, there would be plenty of tradable bear market rally to profit from all this if you have the right strategies for it.


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## Pappon (27 May 2009)

Where's this dead cat bounce everybody is talking about? It looks like a rally that as of last week stalled a bit then is continuing to rise again


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## Beej (27 May 2009)

Pappon said:


> Where's this dead cat bounce everybody is talking about? It looks like a rally that as of last week stalled a bit then is continuing to rise again




I think based on the timelines and market viewpoint being applied here that the 2003-2007 bull market was really nothing but a big dead cat bounce off the 2001 lows! 

Beej


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## Pappon (27 May 2009)

So what's peoples opinions of the past March/April rally?


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## alphaman (27 May 2009)

Beej said:


> I think based on the timelines and market viewpoint being applied here that the 2003-2007 bull market was really nothing but a big dead cat bounce off the 2001 lows!
> Beej



It is exactly because of the timelines (5 years vs. 2 months), that this rally is a bear rally until proven otherwise. 

Just look at XJO's monthly chart. You think market has made a huge move, but big picture wise, it is still only a small retracement.


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## Beej (27 May 2009)

alphaman said:


> It is exactly because of the timelines (5 years vs. 2 months), that this rally is a bear rally until proven otherwise.
> 
> Just look at XJO's monthly chart. You think market has made a huge move, but big picture wise, it is still only a small retracement.




Sure it may turn to be a bear market rally - but that is a different beast to a dead cat bounce. I think it is very clear that a dead cat bounce this was not..... Bear market rally??? Perhaps but the jury is still out. Maybe it's time to start a new thread?

Beej


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## alphaman (27 May 2009)

To me they are same, a rally during a bear market. In his opening post Pythagerous was obviously asking whether this is a new bull market, or just a rally.


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## Gundini (27 May 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> What does the Top Cop at the US Federal Reserve know?





Those who have not watched this video, please do...

This is an insult, not only to the US, but to humanity!

How disgracefull.... and sad....


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## Bafana (28 May 2009)

Doesn't sound like they know whats going on at all.


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## Aussiejeff (28 May 2009)

Bafana said:


> *Doesn't sound like they know whats going on at all*.




Well, who REALLY wants to know?

Sometimes the truth hurts.

So, to numb the pain Big Bro decides it's best to keep it hidden away?

It could be worse. We should all just live the dream and be happy.

What more is there to life?


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## pilots (28 May 2009)

Gundini said:


> Those who have not watched this video, please do...
> 
> This is an insult, not only to the US, but to humanity!
> 
> How disgracefull.... and sad....




After looking at that, I wonder how any one can say we on the road to prosperity again, nine Tril, and no one wants to know about it , heaven help us.


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## Temjin (28 May 2009)

pilots said:


> After looking at that, I wonder how any one can say we on the road to prosperity again, nine Tril, and no one wants to know about it , heaven help us.




The road to prosperity is to continue to consume and borrow more and bring forward future demand to "kick start" the economy again.

Of course, no one wants to know the truth because they would like to have the cake and eat it too. Free lunch is too much of an opportunity to pass. 

I have absolute no faith in the government's ability to reverse this structural change at all.


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 May 2009)

Temjin said:


> *The road to prosperity is to continue to consume and borrow more and bring forward future demand to "kick start" the economy again.*
> 
> Of course, no one wants to know the truth because they would like to have the cake and eat it too. Free lunch is too much of an opportunity to pass.
> 
> I have absolute no faith in the government's ability to reverse this structural change at all.




Right on, Bro! Now ya got it!!

We all gotta believe the Obama-KRudd Dream to achieve this Nirvana thingy.

Remember, our beloved Main Man & Head Guru Robots woz onto this enlightenment path right from the get-go.

We should all take heed of the Great ObamaKRudd & be prepared to sell everything we own and GO OUT AND SPEND THE LOT TO BUY IT ALL BACK AGAIN!!

Imagine how many jobs that would create?
Imagine how much money our friends the banks could make?
Imagine how powerful our most excellent political masters could become on the world stage?

The latte's are on me Robi..... 


Chiz,


aj


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## Uncle Festivus (28 May 2009)

US and global debt ....the figures don't add up, and creditors are demanding more risk premium.... simple.

Hard landing imminent.........bonds.....debt to GDP......China civil riots....


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## MrBurns (28 May 2009)

If you look at the 2 year AXS chart the current surge is no more than another spike in a downward trend.........


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## Beej (28 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> If you look at the 2 year AXS chart the current surge is no more than another spike in a downward trend.........




Mr Burns-  it might be, it might not be - the thing is you nor anyone else *really* knows. Down trends have to reverse sometime.... the historical norm for the stock market is an up-trend rather than a down-trend.So it is inevitable that at some point a down trend will reverse. The only question is when..... and is this current rally that reversal, or will we repeat/extend previous lows and thus confirm an ongoing down-trend as you think to be the case?

In the meantime, this rally has provided some AWESOME opportunities for trading profits + accumulation at reduced cost from all the discounted rights issues and through dividends (which have been substantial) being re-invested.

Cheers,

Beej


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## White_Knight (28 May 2009)

Solution for US:

-Slash military spending
-Slash foreign aid


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## Aussiejeff (28 May 2009)

White_Knight said:


> Solution for US:
> 
> -Slash military spending
> -Slash foreign aid




-Slash imports (too costly with falling dollar)
-Slash healthcare (too costly no matter what)
-Slash pensions (too costly no matter what)
-Slash jobs (too costly no matter what)

Easy peasy...


----------



## Wheep0 (31 May 2009)

When does a bear rally, bounce, sideways trend, continued upward trend become a market correction?
Just like to know, being a market novice.

It is pretty apparent to me global markets were all in a downward trend for the last 18 months, even though some spikes were seen, trend was clearly downward by a pretty rapid level, which of course we all know now.

So here we are , having dipped to March Low, and now we have had 3 months of upward movement, with some downward spikes..and now pretty much on a crab movement until direction is given from somewhere or something. 
How many months of this trend would it take for the word "recovery" to be mooted?

If for example, we stayed in this pattern for the rest of the year, sideways with some ups and downs, but found ourselves on a S & P 500 index of 1000 ish, DJIA  9700 ish, FTSE 5000 ish,  XJO 4300 ish, when would the date be named as the market correction or the end of the bear market?
April, May, June, July, August.....later ??
Or would it still be a bear market in denial?

Just interested... I clearly see the global financial clock on about 6.30 to 7, to me ,the worst is behind for this crisis, however my view is not what I would like discussed, I really would also like to know when was this current bear market officially called in 2007 and how long had the downward trend been in place since the high for the experts ( and there sure seems like a lot of those have gone quiet lately) to call the beginning of the bear market.

I find after reading many posts, articles and papers, that many people are all very very reluctant to admit that what we are seeing may be the first signs of sustained improvment ( no matter how small or light) in the global economy. There are clear indicators becoming apparent, whilst the fundementals of the problems have not totally vanished of course, they are being worked on and there are clear indicators of an end to this global recession by Q3/4 this year.
If this is true, and signs of sustained improvement( no matter how small) are proven by the release of figures, then the markets will react to this in an upwards movement..

So based on that assumption playing out for the remainder of this year,and going into 2010 with real improving figures and also barring no black swan events, when will the call be made that will be looked back through history, of the date of the market correction..

Its the exact opposite to events through late  07, 08 in my novice eyes...and if that proves to be true then only history will show us a date when the call was made.

wheep0


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## Sean K (31 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> When does a bear rally, bounce, sideways trend, continued upward trend become a market correction?
> Just like to know, being a market novice.



Draw a line in the upward trend of a long term semilog chart to see where we sit.

It should make it clearer to where we are in the cycle, unless the system has broken down.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> I really would also like to know when was this current bear market officially called in 2007 and how long had the downward trend been in place since the high for the experts ( and there sure seems like a lot of those have gone quiet lately) to call the beginning of the bear market.




Depend which experts Wheepo.

Most talking heads were saying stronger for longer all through 07 into 08 then called a bear end of 08 and still calling it?

Bottom line is they are backwards looking like most here.


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## Wheep0 (31 May 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Depend which experts Wheepo.
> 
> most talking heads where saying stronger for longer all through 07 into 08 then called a bear end of 08 and still calling it?
> 
> Bottom line is they are backwards looking like most here.




Cheers,
But what was the date/ month, that looking back through history in 10 years time, was the time of correction that was widely accepted as the transition from the last bull to the current bear ?

wheep0


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## Trembling Hand (31 May 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Cheers,
> But what was the date/ month, that looking back through history in 10 years time, was the time of correction that was widely accepted as the transition from the last bull to the current bear ?
> 
> wheep0




Sorry wheepo "they" don't have a central agency that declares "a bear".

But as soon as we get a 20% fall in the major indexes the fools call it an official bear but by then its a useless call.


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## Sean K (31 May 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Sorry wheepo "they" don't have a central agency that declares "a bear".



There are some general numbers on a bear aren't there, TH?

Like a 'recession', or a 'deperession', or a 'correction'. 

All terms that have an approximate general roundabout proximity.

The overall capitalist system hasn't fallen over yet, from what I've seen. And the market is an intergral part of that, so I am going to stick by long term trends and emotional psychology.


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## Uncle Festivus (31 May 2009)

Beej said:


> Down trends have to reverse sometime.... the historical norm for the stock market is an up-trend rather than a down-trend.So it is inevitable that at some point a down trend will reverse.




Well no, it's not _inevitable_......up trends paid for by debt have to reverse too some day, using the same logic? 

If we are talking trends and reversals, we are now in a trend reversal of generational proportions. We can talk about the tags given to minor bumps along the way, but in this time scale the down trend has only just started, if only because parabolic trends are simply unsustainable?

For all those born after 1950 or so then it would be easy to assume that 'things' always  revert to trend ie markets go up, but it has come at a _cumulative_ cost that has to one day either be repaid, inflated away or defaulted apon. Up till now the first 2 options have been enough to sate the debtors at the door and satisfy the consumers debt financed consumption. (Funny that 1971 keeps popping up as the turning point for a parabolic rise in unrestrained credit growth/debt excess???)

Interesting (parabolic exhaustion?) charts from the Fed themselves - the big problem for them, and us, is that the expenses are greater than the incomes ie deficit. GDP growth required to fund these debts will have to be greater than, or a minimum of, 4.5% for the next several years, if not decades? Right now debt is still ballooning out of control and tax receipts are falling just as sharply. China is busy spending their accumulated reserves of US dollars on hard assets before they become worthless.

Yes, the world has gone parabolic, we now have to pay for it?


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## drsmith (31 May 2009)

The shape of the graphs is of course dependant on the vertical scale used.

How do they look on a log10 scale ?


----------



## haunting (31 May 2009)

Here is a point on liquidity worth thinking over. Link here.

_Bottom line: Reviewing the evidence to date, we conclude that the new global liquidity cycle, which started late last year, is alive and kicking.  Excess liquidity has surged, asset markets have rallied, the global economy looks set to bottom out, fears of lasting deflation have been dispelled, and inflation risks are on the rise.  With quantitative easing still in full swing and the economic recovery in 2H09 expected to be rather anaemic, we believe that there is no early end in sight for this liquidity cycle._

** this probably provides an answer to the current rallying market, until the end of liquidity cycle is in sight, or until you begin to read about Bernanke and Tim Geithner expressing some kind of QE easing! And that doesn't seem to be any time soon. 

A direct consequence of such action is to see the decline in the US$ and this probably explains why Tim G is in China talking to the Chinese - he wants them to help to keep the value of US$ steady, as in opinion expressed here. 

Assuming the view expressed is spot on, I think there is a fair chance that the US$ might see a boost in its value due to some "unofficial" agreement between the USA, China and Japan. Those who have large bet on the US$ should keep an eye on Tim Geithner and his Chinese counterpart.


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## jonojpsg (1 June 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well no, it's not _inevitable_......up trends paid for by debt have to reverse too some day, using the same logic?
> 
> If we are talking trends and reversals, we are now in a trend reversal of generational proportions. We can talk about the tags given to minor bumps along the way, but in this time scale the down trend has only just started, if only because parabolic trends are simply unsustainable?
> 
> ...




Have a look at the Crash Course in Economics, Wheepo, it's worth a look.  Quite a few charts that are exponential much like those above.


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## Wheep0 (1 June 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well no, it's not _inevitable_......up trends paid for by debt have to reverse too some day, using the same logic?
> 
> If we are talking trends and reversals, we are now in a trend reversal of generational proportions. We can talk about the tags given to minor bumps along the way, but in this time scale the down trend has only just started, if only because parabolic trends are simply unsustainable?
> 
> ...




.................................................................................................

So I guess you are on a long term short/sell commodities, top up the gold and tinned food strategy for the rest of your trading days then.
GDP Growth will climb back, you are calling this view based on the bottom of the worst bear and financial crisis in 70 years with the fallout and figures associated with it..
Im sorry but I find it hard to accept , maybe im thick though, however you are over thinking and over dramatising the state of the world based on the worst figures seen for nearly a century and saying they will never improve to pay down these debts. Maybe a time will come again on this planet that the tomorrows`s will never be the same as the yesterdays, however that is certainly not now..

My view, just wish I had doubled my long term buys in Feb !
wheep0


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## GumbyLearner (1 June 2009)

Wheep0 said:


> Uncle Festivus said:
> 
> 
> > Well no, it's not _inevitable_......up trends paid for by debt have to reverse too some day, using the same logic?
> ...




You raise some great points Wheep0.

Do you think people are piling into US equities because the bear trend has broken or because they will provide a better yield than US treasuries?


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## Wheep0 (1 June 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> You raise some great points Wheep0.
> 
> Do you think people are piling into US equities because the bear trend has broken or because they will provide a better yield than US treasuries?




Not sure , yanks are surfing a pretty big wave of hope just now,thats for sure. GM`s confirmed bankruptcy is closure,  akin to fearing the worst without admission but then having the proof in front of you a loved one`s death...
Is it the last bit of closure that is required ? not sure..
If the wave of hope, falls into a wave of genuine improving numbers , then for me this will lead to the end of this bear market..

However im a bull, very long and have no part of my persona aligned with negativity and backwardness.

One thing is sure, we are certainly acutely nearer to the end of this bear market than we are to the beginning of it..

wheep0


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## MRC & Co (1 June 2009)

Thx for the post haunting, a great one it is!  Disregard my PM Qs.  All good.


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## Beej (1 June 2009)

drsmith said:


> The shape of the graphs is of course dependant on the vertical scale used.
> 
> How do they look on a log10 scale ?




Yes what he said!  I notice that all these uber-bear/Austrian school/monetarist type views - you know, the ones that always go on about doom and gloom and show us fancy charts with exponential up trends etc? Well they always use linear instead of log axis on their fancy graphs. Why? Well it looks good to people that don't actually understand maths I suppose, or who don't get the fact that the worlds population has grown exponentially for the past few thousand years as well...... Maybe one day that will stop, but until population growth globally stops looking exponential, and even then until close to 100% of the worlds population have the equivalent living standards to the developed/western world, then I think most economic indicators, including money supply growth, credit, GDP, trade, government income/expenditure etc etc can continue to grow in a commensurate manner, over the long term anyway, with the odd hiccup here and there of course as we have just seen (and are still seeing!).

The only thing that will stop it ultimately are environmental factors and/or dependence on scarce resources which run out. The latter worries me less than the former, as innovation IMO will always ensure that we can replace the use of one scarce resource as it runs out with another abundant or even a renewable one. Either way I don't think we are at a point yet with either is really yet a show stopper issue, so I fully expect global economic growth to recover over the next couple of years from the current credit crisis sparked recession, and continue on it's merry way for some time to come - and I am invested accordingly, with plenty left in reserve to take opportunities as they arise.

My 2c worth anyway.

And on this:



jonojpsg said:


> Have a look at the Crash Course in Economics, Wheepo, it's worth a look.  Quite a few charts that are exponential much like those above.




I have watched that series - while it contains some interesting information and examples, I also find it quite misleading in other area's and downright loony/almost conspiratorial in the some area's as well. I always say be careful what you read on the internet, because any crackpot can create a blog, garner a following and suddenly appear to have credibility!  I'm sure there's a reason they don't teach that "Crash course" in the economics schools at all the main universities.....

Cheers,

Beej


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## RayG (1 June 2009)

haunting said:


> Here is a point on liquidity worth thinking over. Link here.




Interesting couple of links there, thanks for that. 

Picking a quote from the Morgan Stanley Analysis, that seems relevant



			
				Morgan Stanley Analysis see link above said:
			
		

> Risky assets such as equities, credit and commodities have rallied over the past few months as excess liquidity has surged.  The ‘wall of money' has dominated the (justified) concerns about the outlook for corporate earnings and the implications of deleveraging in the financial sector and the private household sector.  Whether the rally in risky assets can continue remains to be seen - our European and US equity strategists are cautious and our EM equity strategist Jonathan Garner has become less bullish recently.  In any case, our analysis suggests that there is plenty of liquidity around - and more coming - to support asset prices.




I think it's time to answer the question "Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce",  it's neither, it is gradually morphing into a "bull run"... let's see where the bull can take us.  S&P broke through 930, earlier tonight.... interesting... 10,000 Dow next?

Having said all that, the inevitable pull back will come, just a matter of when..

Regards
Ray


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## moXJO (2 June 2009)

Some big big moves on the US tonight, BIDU is up about 18% as I type. Bear must be out to lunch. Some good profits going long. Shame I get too tired to stay up for more then a few hours.


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## haunting (2 June 2009)

RayG said:


> II think it's time to answer the question "Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce",  it's neither, it is gradually morphing into a "bull run"...




This is a liquidity driven rally, so objectively, it lacks fundamental strength to be sustainable. While the US markets are rallying with stock prices being run up, there's a wider discount on going behind the scene - the depreciation in the US$. 

Here is a news that probably should sound an alarm bell to us all. It is saying the "market" is putting(forcing) a brake on to QE. Bernanke and TimG will be facing the music sooner than later, and learn that there is no free lunch in this world. Not even when you are the world's greatest fed banker!

A lot will depend on what's agreed between TimG and the Chinese and it won't be too long before we find out. Meanwhile enjoy the rally while it lasts, but if my "gut feeling" is right, this should be the last leg of the rally. The bear I think is lurking not too far behind.


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## Uncle Festivus (2 June 2009)

Maybe if you changed the scale on this chart it would turn into a surplus too 

Meanwhile, back in anti bizarro bond world.......rising yeilds......again

Globally, $6trillion minimum needs to be funded for stimulis/bailout schemes either by bonds or QE ie printing money, and the creditors would like a better rate of return to account for the falling exchange rate. I wonder what interest rate was factored into the various deficit calcs?

Foreign investors in the US are still underwater due to the exchange rate so if there is the slighest hint of a faulter in this dead cat bounce then there could be another swift sharp sell off? Getting irrational again?



> Since the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) last issued its baseline projections in January 2009, the outlook for the budget deficit has deteriorated further. Enactment of stimulus legislation and omnibus appropriations, a worsening of the economic outlook, and other factors have increased CBO’s projections of the deficit by more than $400 billion in both 2009 and 2010 and by smaller amounts thereafter. As a result, if current policies remain the same, CBO now anticipates that the deficit will total almost $1.667 trillion




And the main point from the previous post link article - 



> The U.S. Treasury must sell a record net $2 trillion in new debt in 2009 to fund a $1.8 trillion projected fiscal deficit, resulting from falling tax revenues, an economic stimulus package and sundry bank bailouts.


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## Aussiejeff (2 June 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Maybe if you changed the scale on this chart it would turn into a surplus too




Some say a picture is worth a thousand words......

Ta.


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## MRC & Co (2 June 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Foreign investors in the US are still underwater due to the exchange rate so if there is the slighest hint of a faulter in this dead cat bounce then there could be another swift sharp sell off? Getting irrational again?




But are foreign investors in the US hedging their currency exposure?  I would imagine so.  Know where to get figures on this?

Haunting, the meeting of Tim and the Chinese will be paramount for US Treasuries and the USD IMO and it appears the Chinese are extremelly worried.  But I guess, under these circumstances, they will make an effort, if only for the ability to dump into a rising market.


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## Uncle Festivus (2 June 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> But are foreign investors in the US hedging their currency exposure? I would imagine so. Know where to get figures on this?
> 
> Haunting, the meeting of Tim and the Chinese will be paramount for US Treasuries and the USD IMO and it appears the Chinese are extremelly worried. But I guess, under these circumstances, they will make an effort, if only for the ability to dump into a rising market.




The assumption is that they will continue to buy, but they have already indicated that they are willing/wanting to diversify OUT of US treasuries. The 10 yr bond will be crucial to the future of the US? And the down grade from a ratings agency?


----------



## MRC & Co (2 June 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The assumption is that they will continue to buy, but they have already indicated that they are willing/wanting to diversify OUT of US treasuries. And the down grade from a ratings agency?




Yeh, they have already indicated this, hence the meeting now.  Last ditch effort by the US Government to alter this, or even perceptions of this, so bonds may perhaps rise in the short-term, and China can liquidate some positions......

A down grade from a rating agency would be BRUTAL, but how much control over this does the US have.........


----------



## wonderrman (2 June 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> A down grade from a rating agency would be BRUTAL, but how much control over this does the US have.........




Haha yes I highly doubt that any US ratings agency, which are the ones that count (S&P, Moody's etc.) will be downgrading the US anytime soon. We must remember that there is so much corruption within financial markets and governments. While the US are still the global powerhouse I doubt we will see any downgrades to their government bonds. 

 w.


----------



## haunting (2 June 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> the meeting of Tim and the Chinese will be paramount for US Treasuries and the USD IMO and it appears the Chinese are extremelly worried.  But I guess, under these circumstances, they will make an effort, if only for the ability to dump into a rising market...




In many ways the Chinese had already given him enough of hints, that is, they will keep their currency RMB stable and will not be adjusting the exchange rate higher as he has requested. They will stake to export as a partial solution to their overall approach as well as continuing their stimulus spending in infrastructure. As for increasing domestic consumption, much as the Chinese would like to oblige him, the consuming power of the Chinese are no way near that of the Americans or the Europeans, so, it's a waste of time for TimG to remind the Chinese.

As for his request of changing their internal system, ie, more equitable distribution of wealth (thru' increasing the middle class for eg), I think the Chinese leadership will be very cautious here because there is an implication and impact to their long term control of political power, so it won't happen overnight, and probably won't happen while TimG is in China. The Chinese are getting more assertive with their position and I can almost imagine what they will tell him - big smile with their hand behind their back with the middle finger sticking up - there is simply no reason for them to change just so the Americans can issue more debt at the same time debasing the currency these debts is valued on.

The Americans had yet to learn this hard fact - there's no short cut in rebuilding a shattered economy. QE may provide a short term relief but longer term they still have to go through the hard yakka, learn to be productive, learn to save and learn to live within their means. Right now, they are still finding it hard to wean themselves of this free-loading, the- world-owes-them-a-good-life attitude,  until that changes nothing will change for them. The only people that can help them Americans are the Americans themselves. The Chinese won't. Nor will the Europeans, the Russians, the Indians, the Japanese, etc... 

At some point, the world will turn its back to them, if it has not already happened.

The Chinese will not dump their US$ based assets. It doesn't make sense for them to do so because this would only hurt the overall value of their assets if that creates a market panic. Most likely they will slow down their purchase of the US debt to keep the market confidence going. 

Many economists in my view don't realise the power of this trillion+ US$ reserve - it is probably more powerful than all the Chinese military power combined. Just imagine how much the US had spent thus far to fight a war in Iraq just so they can get hold of the oil field over there? 250 bln? Or more? After so many lives lost, billions spent, Iraq is still not completely in their pocket - war can be a costly and messy affair.

Take a look at the Chinese, thus far they had spent(invested) about 1.5 trillions, without a loss of life, and they got a country that is many many times bigger than Iraq, almost at their mercy. Of course they have no intention of conquering the USA at this point, but from a politically view point, the Chinese in many ways are in control, a much better way than  actually going for a real war! (But who can blame George W Bush? since the Americans elected him twice, not once, to be their president!)

When you borrow a million from the bank, you have a problem. But if you can borrow a billion from the bank, the bank has a problem. Politically though, especially in global politics, this may not hold true. If you borrow a trillion from another country - you have a serious problem because you have just handed them a nuclear option to wipe your economy out. Right now the Americans are slowly finding this out, but, it seems they still don't have much of a clue on their vulnerability. The Chinese won't be reminding them of this, nor will they move in a hurry to reduce their US$ asset as it is serving them quite well in terms of political leverage.

... let's hope the Americans can wake up in time, or this world will never be the same again.


----------



## haunting (4 June 2009)

haunting said:


> ...
> Assuming the view expressed is spot on, I think there is a fair chance that the US$ might see a boost in its value due to some "unofficial" agreement between the USA, China and Japan. Those who have large bet on the US$ should keep an eye on Tim Geithner and his Chinese counterpart.




A follow up. Best summed up with a chart.

One might call this a coincident, a fluke, or blah blah blah. No matter and it's not important if China has really ganged up with the USA to cook the market, chasing up the dollar, etc. The fact is this - TimG's trip for some reason has spooked the speculators into profit taking. Or is it? Well, watch further and see if the DXY index would improve. At this point, betting the US$ all the way down might not work out to be a sure bet, doubt has begun to creep in... follow by volatility.

For a "steady" economic recovery, the USA needs a stable US$. For that matter, the whole world needs a stable US$ to facilitate international trades. Raising debt to reflate the economy, using QE as a means to raise debt will only serve to destabilise the US$ and the general investor confidence. For as long as QE is the preferred modus operandi in rescuing the economy, the US$ will remain volatile, leading to its eventual loss as the defacto reserve currency of the world. But until that happens, which will take a long time, a sustainable global economic recovery is unlikely to happen.  And in between from now till then, there will be many "dead cat bounce(s)" in the stock market... like the one we are in right now.


----------



## Pythagerous (17 June 2009)

Some are saying that this is still a dead cat bounce, and that the market still has to drop down to 2800.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?


----------



## Gundini (17 June 2009)

Pythagerous said:


> Some are saying that this is still a dead cat bounce, and that the market still has to drop down to 2800.
> 
> Anyone have any thoughts on this?




Sounds pretty fair to me, although I would think 3100 would be the first stop.

Then again, I hardly ever get it right in the short term. So much global manipulation, anything could happen!

I have been stocking up with Gold for a while now and it hasn't done me any favours yet. I still believe this play will pay off longer term, if it doesn't liquidate me in the interum...


----------



## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Gundini said:


> Sounds pretty fair to me, although I would think 3100 would be the first stop.
> 
> Then again, I hardly ever get it right in the short term. So much global manipulation, anything could happen!
> 
> I have been stocking up with Gold for a while now and it hasn't done me any favours yet. I still believe this play will pay off longer term, if it doesn't liquidate me in the interum...




Costello has said today that inflation will hit hard when the recovery finally gets here, so your gold will be ok in the end.
Did you take shares or physical gold ?


----------



## Gundini (17 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Costello has said today that inflation will hit hard when the recovery finally gets here, so your gold will be ok in the end.
> Did you take shares or physical gold ?




Both, that's if you class GOLD ETF's physical, backed by bullion in the London vault (apparently, though I haven't seen it). Also Newcrest stock, but both have been causing me grief... Not worried though, the truth has to come out in the end....


----------



## Sean K (17 June 2009)

Eeeeek, 

Sensing some faith like statements here and in the gold thread. 



All based on the same fundamentals and emotions that drive the overall market. 

Nothing is certain.

Only perceptions of reality.


----------



## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Gundini said:


> Both, that's if you class GOLD ETF's physical, backed by bullion in the London vault (apparently, though I haven't seen it). Also Newcrest stock, but both have been causing me grief... Not worried though, the truth has to come out in the end....




I was about to get into gold but I'm largely uninspired by anything at the moment but also sick of watching money just rot in the bank.


----------



## haunting (17 June 2009)

haunting said:


> And in between from now till then, there will be many "dead cat bounce(s)" in the stock market... like the one we are in right now.




I like to correct myself with the above, ie, replacing "dead cat bounces" with "market corrections" because I was not being very precise with the term. If there is further pull back in the market, my expectation of the worst case scenario is at 35-3600 in the XJO.

To argue for a dead cat bounce in my view is to argue fundamentally the concerted efforts by all the major central bankers plus  their respective governments had failed in rescuing the global economy from a depression had failed.   At this point, even the gloomiest of them economists, Roubini is reported to have told Reuters that the recovery in the US economy is on its way. It will be meek but it won't be dead.

So what is the chance that 3100 will be revisited? Ask, what is the new driver(s)? What is the new fear factor? The recent low of 3100 was achieved through a series of severe fear factors -  subprime, bad banks, write off, credit crunch, credit freeze, export freeze, economic meltdown and wholesale global panic. Currently most people in my view are quite well conditioned by all these bad news, the chance that they will get into some kind of panic attack and dump their shares, frankly is quite low.

Do a self test, just ask yourself - will you dump all your equity now if Roubini is telling you the USA is going to have a double dip recession? If you are not, then, chances are, others are reacting like you... no fear.


----------



## Glen48 (17 June 2009)

29- 30 had the same thing markets going up for 5 mths and then a crash just a repeat it won't happen over night but it will happen....as she said.


----------



## White_Knight (17 June 2009)

1929-30 =/= 2009-2010


----------



## gfresh (17 June 2009)

Conditions are quite different to the 1930's.. going into, during, and coming out of this recession.. I definitely agree with haunting's thoughts. 

If nothing else, pull backs like these are a great opportunity to re-examine the current situation and have a bit of a think whether these are really the signs of recovery. 

Recovery is not going to be immediate, but for it to get worse from here you'd have to continued bad news, whereas for the last few months it's been more positive news. Even the US housing starts, housing being the very trigger for this crisis, are starting to improve. This was only yesterday, how much has really changed? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPWDH98FdnVI


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Conditions are quite different to the 1930's.. going into, during, and coming out of this recession.. I definitely agree with haunting's thoughts.
> 
> If nothing else, pull backs like these are a great opportunity to re-examine the current situation and have a bit of a think whether these are really the signs of recovery.
> 
> ...





Yeah great news...
They have a 10 month supply of existing housing that they can't sell, but the good news they are building more, great news indeed.

How much new debt has been issued since even the March low?

Whats improving other than media spin?

Intersting times coming with the 2nd quater US reporting season soon. Seems like a pump and dump to me!

I'm looking to re-enter but not before a drop below 3300.

Just my

G


----------



## gfresh (17 June 2009)

Come on.. sentiment is changing with the general population, and that is what *very* important. Even if it's media spin, it's spinning on what people want to believe themselves. 

Likewise could well be a nice dump to scare the precious punters, and make them think worse is still to come, meanwhile setting their bots to accumulate all the way down. Just as likely.


----------



## Gundini (17 June 2009)

kennas said:


> Eeeeek,
> 
> Sensing some faith like statements here and in the gold thread.
> 
> ...




You are right Kennas, but perceptions of reality are misconstructed imo...

The froth and bubble, smoke and mirrors, emotional drive to some sort of reality is flawed, and while nothing is certain, the party can't last forever.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Come on.. sentiment is changing with the general population, and that is what *very* important. Even if it's media spin, it's spinning on what people want to believe themselves.
> 
> Likewise could well be a nice dump to scare the precious punters, and make them think worse is still to come, meanwhile setting their bots to accumulate all the way down. Just as likely.




Well general sentiment could be changing but not for me. I'm a bear, how do I know?
I had a sharp pain in my stomach this afternoon so I went to the toilet and a bloody cub came out.
I won't always be a bear but for know I'm cashed up and happy to wait.

G


----------



## Gundini (17 June 2009)

haunting said:


> So what is the chance that 3100 will be revisited? Ask, what is the new driver(s)? What is the new fear factor? The recent low of 3100 was achieved through a series of severe fear factors -  subprime, bad banks, write off, credit crunch, credit freeze, export freeze, economic meltdown and wholesale global panic. Currently most people in my view are quite well conditioned by all these bad news, the chance that they will get into some kind of panic attack and dump their shares, frankly is quite low.




My opinion? It is certain we will revisit 3100, and maybe lower. 

Reason?........All this Global stimulus will have to stop. You can't just keep printing money.  When it does stop, reality will become apparent to all who have lost their jobs. Many will be fearful of their job. Spending will pull back, business will cut staff, further pressure on Real Estate, and Commercial, non competitive business will go broke. 

If the US would have let toxic assets fail, we would see an earlier recovery, but bailing out toxic assets just delay the recovery in the long term. 

Ultimately, they are trying to transfer the debt to future generations. Society in general is like that, they don't want to take responsibility for there own actions.

We are lucky in Aus... While we borrow like the best of them, we do have substancial resources (Both Minerals and Education) that cashed up countries desire! Therefore, we are less at risk to melt down as the US is in it's economy. 

This is the changing of the guards, a new world currency will be born, and it may just well be based on a Gold standard. 

Having said that, we will be lucky we stop at 3100, but the US has to suffer the responcibility of their actions. Let's face it... The US has played poker with China, and lost.... Lost big time....

What happens next? The USD becomes so weak that they either create a war with somebody to kickstart their economy, or they become globally competitive with their dollar and lead the Globe out of Recession, maybe both!

Disclaimer: The above are ramblings only. Ramblings are toxic assets! If you are looking to sell these, please send to: Obama- PO Box 7000 -WDC


----------



## haunting (17 June 2009)

Gundini said:


> .All this Global stimulus will have to stop. You can't just keep printing money.  When it does stop, reality will become apparent to all who have lost their jobs. Many will be fearful of their job. Spending will pull back, business will cut staff, further pressure on Real Estate, and Commercial, non competitive business will go broke...




1) QE is meant as a last resort to unfreeze the earlier credit freeze that was plaguing the global economy. Right now there are signs that the freeze may be over, albeit slowly. At some point, QE will end and mopping up this excess liquidity will be set into motion. Bernanke and TimG know full well this is what has to be done, and with it, the threat of hyperinflation will likely to be alleviated. So, right now the concern of excessive printing of dollar although is a valid concern, it's a bit too early. The real concern is if and when the mopping up has failed. 

Right now, Bernanke and TimG's problem is to generate a cushion of growth to reduce the full impact of a severe recession. They seem to have succeeded with many forecasts indicating the US economy will get back into some kind of growth by the latest, end of '09.

Time will tell. But really there is no need to rush to any conclusion especially the overly negative conclusion because the data available right now don't seem to support this view.

2) Australian economy in specific - how much does the US economy affect us over here? If I can draw a comparison between the Canadian economy against ours - both are commodity economies, yet theirs is in some kind of trouble because of their over exposure to the US economy, with the USA being their major export destination. Whilst the Aussie economy, according to Krudd and Swan has avoided a recession. Luck? 

Probably not. I would suggest that has a lot to do with the Chinese economy and the other Asian economies. They are still importing our commodities and they are still investing into our local economy.

So seriously, how much threat is the US economy to us? Even assuming if it goes into a serious recession?

Not much I reckon.

3) Fear, due to our imagination sometimes appears much worse than reality. If you find this hard to accept, just look back at the last 6 months and try to relive what the market has been through. Do a google or bing and see if the future is still looking this bleak. 

Alternatively try to get a feel on why RIO back then was worth only 30 a pop and 3 days ago it was selling at around 79? 

Fear can be irrational.


Cheers.


----------



## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Reality is there is very little business being done out there, businesses are hanging on by their fingernails. Ths will not get better any time soon and without brisk and growing business trade we're stuffed.


----------



## Beej (17 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Reality is there is very little business being done out there, businesses are hanging on by their fingernails.




Got any evidence to back up this claim? I know of many businesses still doing well; additionally several people I know have told me that their businesses have picked up quite a bit since Q1 this year (Q4 last year seemed to be the worst). The GDP numbers certainly don't back up your assertion....



> Ths will not get better any time soon and without brisk and growing business trade we're stuffed.




I agree with the statement above though!

PS: I think Haunting is pretty much on the money with the likely outlook for the market from here with solid, well thought out reasoning. I see this current re-tracement as a buying opportunity (with a long term outlook).

Beej


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

haunting said:


> 1) QE is meant as a last resort to unfreeze the earlier credit freeze that was plaguing the global economy. Right now there are signs that the freeze may be over, albeit slowly. At some point, QE will end and mopping up this excess liquidity will be set into motion. Bernanke and TimG know full well this is what has to be done, and with it, the threat of hyperinflation will likely to be alleviated. So, right now the concern of excessive printing of dollar although is a valid concern, it's a bit too early. The real concern is if and when the mopping up has failed.
> 
> Right now, Bernanke and TimG's problem is to generate a cushion of growth to reduce the full impact of a severe recession. They seem to have succeeded with many forecasts indicating the US economy will get back into some kind of growth by the latest, end of '09.
> 
> ...




I can already hear the sucking sound starting!

I still can't believe that people are buying into this recovery based on " green shoots" Spun out by the media.
Didn't this "recovery" started on a leaked rummor that a bank was going to make money. Then the toxic or "legacy assets" where able to be taken off the balance sheets by the mark to market changes.
Whats changed in the U.S?
Increased mortgage/ credit card defalts.
Growing unemployment
Record debt
Oh we are decoupled from the U.S cause we can ride on the coat heals of china? Rubbish.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/pento/pento061609.html

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/06/california-leads-nation-to-bond-default.html

Best
G


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## Gundini (17 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I can already hear the sucking sound starting!
> 
> Oh we are decoupled from the U.S cause we can ride on the coat heals of china? Rubbish.
> 
> ...




I haven't looked at those links yet but,

We have to decouple from the US.... the US is unfinancial.. China has money of worth + gold. China will have huge stockpiles of all resources at the end of this strategic play.. Because we will either sell it to them, or they will control some assets... 

Outside of a master stroke from Uncle Sam (Possible? Resiliant?) they are doomed.... until of course their dollar becomes export competitive....


----------



## Gundini (17 June 2009)

haunting said:


> 1)
> So seriously, how much threat is the US economy to us? Even assuming if it goes into a serious recession?
> 
> Not much I reckon.
> ...




Failure in the US economy are felt throughout the world.... " A butterfly that flaps in wings in Christchurch can cause a massive sell off in oil in the US"...

China will soon be a Global provider of cars... GM just fell over... Therefore, China will need to get steel and aluminium etc.. from Australia to build these cars. We have heaps of raw materials for China. But, If demand for vehicles subside in the US, China will have less demand for raw materials, Australia will have less exports and we will lose jobs locally. People who lose their jobs can't afford mortgages, and so on, and so on.....


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

Here is some more bearish info for you all.

Its a couple of months old I lost the link but it's all the same since then. nothing changed but more debt.

http://www.globalpolitician.com/25449-depression-recession-stimulus-europe-recovery

Best

G


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## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Beej said:


> Got any evidence to back up this claim? I know of many businesses still doing well; additionally several people I know have told me that their businesses have picked up quite a bit since Q1 this year (Q4 last year seemed to be the worst). The GDP numbers certainly don't back up your assertion....




No official figures, they're always old news anyway, I go on what I see in the street. 
Shops advertising sales, you can smell the rot, a cab driver the other day told me business is the worst it has ever been and he wasnt kidding, the way he described it actually shocked me, those sorts of things tell me the story, there is no optimism it's just a great chasm, like the hole thats left when a cancer is removed (I imagine).


----------



## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Here is some more bearish info for you all.
> 
> Its a couple of months old I lost the link but it's all the same since then. nothing changed but more debt.
> 
> ...




I think there's a fair chance that's on the cards.

Also - recovery to what ?????? what we had was a bubble of unprecedented proportions propped up by dodgy financial structures, thats all gone now we cant go back to that, so what do we recover to ?


----------



## seasprite (17 June 2009)

kennas said:


> Eeeeek,
> 
> Sensing some faith like statements here and in the gold thread.
> 
> ...




I'm going against the trend and picking a green day tomorrow (currently -6 on the futures ) .


----------



## Gundini (17 June 2009)

seasprite said:


> I'm going against the trend and picking a green day tomorrow (currently -6 on the futures ) .




Hahaha.... Now that will fix the problem.... lol


----------



## pilots (17 June 2009)

Beej said:


> Got any evidence to back up this claim? I know of many businesses still doing well; additionally several people I know have told me that their businesses have picked up quite a bit since Q1 this year (Q4 last year seemed to be the worst). The GDP numbers certainly don't back up your assertion....
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Beej, have a look at British Airways, how well are they doing?? you will find that at the end of this year you will see the real rot set in.


----------



## GumbyLearner (17 June 2009)

Where's WHEEP0 ?


----------



## Beej (17 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I think there's a fair chance that's on the cards.
> 
> Also - recovery to what ?????? what we had was a bubble of unprecedented proportions propped up by dodgy financial structures, thats all gone now we cant go back to that, so what do we recover to ?




Fair enough - I'm not saying it's all rosy by any means, but around where I live/work things don't seem to be anywhere near as down as they sound like where you hang out? Everything is pretty normal around here, cafe's still full every morning/weekend, shops full, I do notice some restaurants are a bit easier to get a table at, but still plenty of turn-over. Still just as much bloody traffic on the roads as ever. Everyone I know who runs a business is still going and whilst they have seen a downturn things are currently improving from what I get told, plus the four people I know who got laid off late last year etc have all found gainful employment, in most cases earning more $$$ then they were before, and with a big fat redundancy pay-out having landed in their bank account or on their mortgage to boot!



pilots said:


> Beej, have a look at British Airways, how well are they doing?? you will find that at the end of this year you will see the real rot set in.




What does the performance of BA have to do with the Australian economy???? Even if we were talking Qantas, airlines are highly cyclical in the best of times!

Beej


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## gfresh (17 June 2009)

Depends on the business (of course!).. company I work for is suffering a slowdown, but still getting business, and has not deteriorated recently. I have my own business, and I am still getting calls for work coming in.  (have to tell them too much work, bugger off). There is no broad brush to describe every industry, other than things are probably not as easy as the last few years, but not everybody is shutting up shop, or crying crocodile tears. 



Gordon Gekko said:


> I'm no expert, I don't speculate. I don't try to pick the bottom or listen to others who try. I am 100% fully invested and continue to average down every fortnight. Those who buy at or near the bottom will be rewarded in the long term.




I'm interested as to what your strategy or general perspective actually is  So you're averaging down, yet believe this is not the bottom, and believe there must be a further bottom somewhere below at 3100 so you refuse to average 'up' ? 

I would have thought, if one continued to average down, one would be imagining there would be recovery sooner rather than later, in expectation that they are getting closer to the bottom, in order to realise profit without waiting many many years? If not, surely you'd simply wait much longer to do so. 

What will be your indicators when a recovery has occurred? I know as things deteriorated I had a few that I knew would be important, and most of these have turned. They may turn back again, but it's a long fall to do so.


----------



## Real1ty (17 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I won't always be a bear but for know *I'm cashed up and happy to wait.*
> 
> G




While you were sitting on the sidelines as the market rallied 20+% a lot of us were taking advantage of this rally and not giving two hoots as to why it was happening.

If the trend turns, then many of us will simply about face and attempt to make money out of the ride down.

Glad to hear you are happy


----------



## moXJO (17 June 2009)

I say Dow to a million... Go inflation go!!:bananasmi


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## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Depends on the business (of course!).. company I work for is suffering a slowdown, but still getting business, and has not deteriorated recently. I have my own business, and I am still getting calls for work coming in.  (have to tell them too much work, bugger off). There is no broad brush to describe every industry, other than things are probably not as easy as the last few years, but not everybody is shutting up shop, or crying crocodile tears.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Hi Gfresh,

That quote of mine you posted is rather old. I still and always will maintain that I am no expert but I have been learning (with the help of fellow posters) more and more to have faith in my convictions.

I sold in Aug 07 at 6000asx (luck rather than good financial management) and spent the year schooling up.
Aug 08 I started buying back in with a goal to be fully invested in 6 to 9 months, however I was a bit of ahead of myself and after I was fully invested I continued to watch my portfolio drop. I wasn't worried about losing 10% or so and as the market started to flatten out I continued to buy every fortnight even though it only brought my cost base down a couple of cents.
I sold again when the market was at 3700 as I'm just not buying into this ****. Granted long term that may have been a great entry point however (I buy index funds for now)The run up was to far to fast with no retracement. It was over sold in March (or was it) and my feeling now is its over bought and until there is a pull back and consolidation on significant volume over months rather than days, then I start to average in again.
To be honest I am a long term bull in bears clothing but at this stage I am very happy to sit on a small fortune on the sidelines. If there were to be a capitulation moment from here I would drop the hammer and move it all back in but it would have to be a level under 3300 as that is where I see fair value for the index for a long term 5 to 15 year hold.

Time will tell but I don't think we will have to wait to long.

Best of luck

G


----------



## grace (17 June 2009)

GumbyLearner said:


> Where's WHEEP0 ?




He is not looking at the screen until 4600 is reached I hear.  Ooops, 4600 did he say???


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> While you were sitting on the sidelines as the market rallied 20+% a lot of us were taking advantage of this rally and not giving two hoots as to why it was happening.
> 
> If the trend turns, then many of us will simply about face and attempt to make money out of the ride down.
> 
> Glad to hear you are happy




I haven't always been on the sidelines mate
But thats great news you are making such awesome gains! 
Hopefully over a five year period you will still be ahead and hey if you are you should become a fund manager as you would be a Warren buffet class trader!

G


----------



## nunthewiser (17 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> you would be a Warren buffet class trader!
> 
> G




um thats hardly anything to be proud of at present


----------



## Real1ty (17 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I haven't always been on the sidelines mate
> But thats great news you are making such awesome gains!
> Hopefully over a five year period you will still be ahead and hey if you are you should become a fund manager as you would be a Warren buffet class *trader*!
> 
> G




Not smart enough to be a WB class *investor* (he isn't a trader) and i'm really just a sheep, follow the trend, it's pretty simple stuff.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> Not smart enough to be a WB class *investor* (he isn't a trader) and i'm really just a sheep, follow the trend, it's pretty simple stuff.




I was being facetious as I'm sure are
Hey if you can make consistent gains of 20% and pick to bottoms and tops then good on you man!

Let me get my wallet

G


----------



## Real1ty (17 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I was being facetious as I'm sure are
> Hey if you can make consistent gains of 20% and pick to bottoms and tops then good on you man!
> 
> Let me get my wallet
> ...




You might want to read my post again.

The Market rallied 20+%, many stocks rallied a lot more.

Following a trend is not picking tops and bottoms...


----------



## Gordon Gekko (17 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> You might want to read my post again.
> 
> The Market rallied 20+%, many stocks rallied a lot more.
> 
> Following a trend is not picking tops and bottoms...




Duely noted!

So which way is the trend going then?

G


----------



## haunting (18 June 2009)

Depression Drivel? Anyone? 

Make a lot of sense to me. It would be totally disastrous for someone to have firstly missed the rebound from the March low to the current level (say 3100 to 4000 = 29% gain in the index, with individual stock gaining much much higher than that, stocks like CBA and BHP from 27 to 38 =about +40% gain);  and then further missing out the subsequent rebound at the end of the current correction. I guess it's horses for courses huh? 

_That correction call, in part, is based on some drivel about how this global recession is following the same path as the Great Depression thus far. While I don’t pretend to have a perfect crystal ball and I’m certainly not suggesting that we’re out of the woods, I think it is dangerous and completely disingenuous to be making such a comparison.

Learn from these episodes, absolutely, find out what we did wrong, you bet, but to suggest that we are automatically on the same path now I think is just lazy. It completely overlooks the significant changes to institutions, frameworks and what have you – moreover, it underplays the significant difference in policy responses. The economic setting that affected decisions was very different back then – it’s a very different scenario. So my suggestion is not to be sucked in by this stuff – it makes an interesting read for history buffs but I wouldn’t use any of it to guide investment decisions. _


----------



## grace (18 June 2009)

haunting said:


> Depression Drivel? Anyone?
> 
> Make a lot of sense to me. It would be totally disastrous for someone to have firstly missed the rebound from the March low to the current level (say 3100 to 4000 = 29% gain in the index, with individual stock gaining much much higher than that, stocks like CBA and BHP from 27 to 38 =about +40% gain);  and then further missing out the subsequent rebound at the end of the current correction. I guess it's horses for courses huh?
> 
> ...




Kohler also said at the beginning of 2008, BHP would outperform having money in the bank.  I don't think he is always right!


----------



## haunting (18 June 2009)

grace said:


> Kohler also said at the beginning of 2008, BHP would outperform having money in the bank.  I don't think he is always right!




Yes I agree. Kohler is not always right. You should read that article again. May do you some good.


----------



## Beej (18 June 2009)

grace said:


> Kohler also said at the beginning of 2008, BHP would outperform having money in the bank.  I don't think he is always right!




BHP certainly has massively outperformed the XJO index (ie ASX-200) since start of 2008 (see attached chart). And in fact depending on exactly when in early 2008 you bought, up to 10%+ capital gain (up to this point in time), plus about 3-4% in dividends could have been made, which means it would have out-performed having cash in the bank, especially after tax!

PS: I'm not saying AK is always right or anything - but on BHP he may have made a good call - at least from a stock market point of view?

Cheers,

Beej


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## lasty (18 June 2009)

"Kohler also said at the beginning of 2008, BHP would outperform having money in the bank."

Outperform what? BNB... big tick there


----------



## gfresh (18 June 2009)

grace said:


> Kohler also said at the beginning of 2008, BHP would outperform having money in the bank.  I don't think he is always right!




The article above was written by Adam Carr


----------



## grace (18 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> The article above was written by Adam Carr




Oops, I hope you will all forgive me, Kohler did not write that after all.  He only just got it wrong on the cash vs BHP call for 2008 I see.  He was very very confident on that call I recall when he wrote it up in the first week in Jan 08.


----------



## dan-o (18 June 2009)

Kohler also said last night that in the past 4 days we have broken out of the trading range we have been in for the past 3 months, on the downside. What do people think will happen next??


----------



## gfresh (18 June 2009)

Depends on where you wish to draw your trend line, but according to mine, 3850 is right at the trend line which begun in late March. At close today we were 3887. Very close, but still holding.. just

There was some good volume today on some of the larger stocks (also note option expiry), which tends to indicate some buying on a fairly flat day. We will see. 

A decisive break below 3850 in the next day or two may mean the current rally is over, and would be a sell signal if you were following this trend.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (19 June 2009)

dan-o said:


> Kohler also said last night that in the past 4 days we have broken out of the trading range we have been in for the past 3 months, on the downside. What do people think will happen next??




The trading range of doji's for the last 2 weeks broke to the downside this week. Goldman & Morgan Stanley are doing their best in the quant pit with the support of the US Fed & treasury, but Mr Bond is telling them otherwise?

Window dressing till fin year end then look out below 

The US market is being held up till the banks get their capital issues out of the way, despite the 300 pts dip this week and the 60pt 'rally' today (suspiciously due to a surge in banking shares?). 

There are only 2 types of US banks these day - the ones that have gone bankrupt and the ones that are insolvent. They are still undercapitalised despite the so called stress test. 

The real unfunded liability of the US government present & future debt is now somewhere near $100 TRILLION! The US is insolvent......


----------



## adobee (19 June 2009)

grace said:


> Oops, I hope you will all forgive me, Kohler did not write that after all.  He only just got it wrong on the cash vs BHP call for 2008 I see.  He was very very confident on that call I recall when he wrote it up in the first week in Jan 08.




I looked at Kohlers report pretty much everything he wrote up to a year ago was 'why the mining boom will last for ten years' buy bhp its a $50 stock...


----------



## IntrinsicValue (19 June 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Which shows you don't have a clue about how lucrative day trading can be.




hehe, just think of all the brokerage expenses added up along with the CGT expenses (without using the discount method) that you could have used to compound from . feels like such a waste just thinking about it. 

of course - if you want to look at the bright side - day trading will be helping the government with their deficit lol


----------



## Nyden (19 June 2009)

IntrinsicValue said:


> hehe, just think of all the brokerage expenses added up along with the CGT expenses (without using the discount method) that you could have used to compound from . feels like such a waste just thinking about it.
> 
> of course - if you want to look at the bright side - day trading will be helping the government with their deficit lol




Often, traders don't pay CGT, they pay ordinary tax - because they're actually traders as a profession, and not investors.

Try paying the bills with a buy and hold strategy mate, you'll be living on the street in a month.


----------



## AustSS (19 June 2009)

This is definitely not advice or meant to be accurate, but I have 'heard' from some sources that the problems with the banking system and credit markets in Australia hasn't even come to light completely yet - and Australia is in for some more pain before there is any real recovery.


----------



## Nyden (19 June 2009)

AustSS said:


> This is definitely not advice or meant to be accurate, but I have 'heard' from some sources that the problems with the banking system and credit markets in Australia hasn't even come to light completely yet - and Australia is in for some more pain before there is any real recovery.




Oh, you've heard.

See, I've also 'heard' (the little quotation mark things make it OK) that everything I own is going to skyrocket, and that you all need to buy in before you miss the boat forever. See how that works?


----------



## sammy84 (19 June 2009)

IntrinsicValue said:


> hehe, just think of all the brokerage expenses added up along with the CGT expenses (without using the discount method) that you could have used to compound from . feels like such a waste just thinking about it.
> 
> of course - if you want to look at the bright side - day trading will be helping the government with their deficit lol




The fact that you think day traders have CGT expenses and high brokerage expenses show that you have no idea. Use IB and brokerage can be around US$1. 
Your probably trading on comsec paying $20 commissions, holding stocks that are losing value so you can hit the 12 month holding period, and carrying a lot of risk over the weekend. Been there, done that, not my cup of tea


----------



## IntrinsicValue (19 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Often, traders don't pay CGT, they pay ordinary tax - because they're actually traders as a profession, and not investors.
> 
> Try paying the bills with a buy and hold strategy mate, you'll be living on the street in a month.




you cannot discount ordinary tax though. so isn't that pretty much the same thing as paying full tax like as if it were CGT not held after 12 months?


----------



## IntrinsicValue (19 June 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Your probably trading on comsec paying $20 commissions, *holding stocks that are losing value* so you can hit the 12 month holding period, and carrying a lot of risk over the weekend. Been there, done that, not my cup of tea




nice assumption there in bold. you act like you know my investments so well.


----------



## Nyden (19 June 2009)

IntrinsicValue said:


> you cannot discount ordinary tax though. so isn't that pretty much the same thing as paying full tax like as if it were CGT not held after 12 months?




Yes, and? Do you not pay full tax on your personal income as well? You don't seem to appreciate that some people are able to make a fantastic living off of trading - without needing to have any other additional sources of income. Many traders have a portfolio for the future as well, but it really is apples and oranges.


----------



## nomore4s (19 June 2009)

IntrinsicValue said:


> nice assumption there in bold. you act like you know my investments so well.




But it's alright for you to make assumptions about daytrading? You obviously have very little understanding of how daytraders actually operate.



> you cannot discount ordinary tax though. so isn't that pretty much the same thing as paying full tax like as if it were CGT not held after 12 months?




Did it occur to you that traders that trade for a living are actually running a business and therefore can claim business expenses and pay tax like any other business?

No matter what profession you are in, if you make money you are going to pay tax.


----------



## MrBurns (19 June 2009)

From Crikey, this is just about as good a place to post this as anywhere else - 



> The chart below gives a pretty clear picture of the challenges that lie ahead for the US and the rest of this systemically interconnected financial world, as we all try to struggle through the hangover left by the near collapse of the global economy in late in 2008.
> 
> The green and the red stuff in the graph is the extra money the US Federal Reserve has added to its balance sheet to support the US and global economies. (US banks, currency swaps, new lending funds, US commercial paper). There's an awful, awful lot lot, more than any one can comprehend. Simply trillions of dollars which has been was used to stabilise the global and various economies from the threat of implosion after Lehman Brothers fell over and a number of other banks creaked and tumbled.
> 
> ...


----------



## MrBurns (19 June 2009)

here's the graph


----------



## IntrinsicValue (19 June 2009)

nomore4s said:


> But it's alright for you to make assumptions about daytrading? You obviously have very little understanding of how daytraders actually operate.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




what assumptions have i made? all i said was that there are a lot of tax and brokerage expenses added up together that could have been used to compound. that's fact.

in relation to claiming deductions. so what you're saying is that day traders incurring these expenses can claim these as a deduction, therefore it's good enough? expenses don't matter because you can claim as deductions right? in reality you are only claiming your tax bracket only on those expenses, the rest could have been compounded and doesn't change the fact that the whole expense gone could have been used to compound. why don't we all ask our tax accountant to up his tax fees because essentially it's the same thing as what you're saying. "we can claim it anyway as a deduction"

you can't even halve that income on your TR. therefore u're paying more tax than someone who - over the long run - gets the same yearly average compounding ROR as a day trader and defers their tax liability


----------



## nomore4s (19 June 2009)

IntrinsicValue said:


> what assumptions have i made? all i said was that there are a lot of tax and brokerage expenses added up together that could have been used to compound. that's fact.
> 
> in relation to claiming deductions. so what you're saying is that day traders incurring these expenses can claim these as a deduction, therefore it's good enough? expenses don't matter because you can claim as deductions right? in reality you are only claiming your tax bracket only on those expenses, the rest could have been compounded and doesn't change the fact that the whole expense gone could have been used to compound. why don't we all ask our tax accountant to up his tax fees because essentially it's the same thing as what you're saying. "we can claim it anyway as a deduction"
> 
> you can't even halve that income on your TR. therefore u're paying more tax than someone who - over the long run - gets the same yearly average compounding ROR as a day trader and defers their tax liability




No what I'm saying is it is the same as running any business - there are expenses involved and they pay tax like any other business.

How you can compare a daytrade who draws his income from the the markets to your longer term investment approach is beyond me. Apples and oranges really. Anyway I'm done with this conversation.


----------



## MRC & Co (19 June 2009)

I'm sniffing a challenge coming on (looks for TH).  

I'm yet to see one of these junk talkers (obvious newbs) step upto the plate.  

Know where the hills are IV?  Start running.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 June 2009)

If your making your investment/trading/business decisons based on tax alone, then you are way off. Produce a profit first, worry about tax later.

IV - check out this thread for what _some_ daytraders can do, and then tell me you can match that return with a buy and hold portfolio
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683


----------



## Gordon Gekko (20 June 2009)

Some more "green shoots" 

G





http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/trimtabs-ceo-provides-realistic-view-on.html


----------



## MrBurns (20 June 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> If your making your investment/trading/business decisons based on tax alone, then you are way off. Produce a profit first, worry about tax later.




A very wise associate of mine years ago also said the same thing.


----------



## nunthewiser (20 June 2009)

good lord 

gimme a break 

yes i daresay those investors from 2 years back are thanking there lucky stars they invested instead of running a shorter term trade approach 

great tax benefits lol oops ang on, they may need a profit first

anyways horses for courses ........have noticed one thing tho ,............. very easy for so called experts and guru,s that appear here to slag off any other strategys they obviosly cannot make work themselves instead of having a deeper look at why they cant

being classed as a trader has quite a few beneficial advantages tax wise actually and i suggest you go see a GOOD accountant if pain persists


----------



## knocker (20 June 2009)

This is a dead cat bounce. Will take another two years for all the **** to settle.


----------



## beamstas (20 June 2009)

IntrinsicValue

What a legend

I bet he knocks back high paying jobs

He's scared he'll pay more tax


----------



## moXJO (22 June 2009)

Possible Golden cross on S&P 500

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=062F7428-1871-E587-E1C0FE716BAC517E

Of course it may just bounce off and go down. Still something to watch for.


----------



## RayG (22 June 2009)

moXJO said:


> Possible Golden cross on S&P 500
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=062F7428-1871-E587-E1C0FE716BAC517E
> 
> Of course it may just bounce off and go down. Still something to watch for.




Thanks for that moXJO, it will be interesting to see which way it breaks. Seems like it can do anything except go sideways, so I guess that will be what happens. 

I am curious, how many of the bearish posters on this thread missed the rally and are now waiting for a drop, just to get back into the market?


Regards
Ray


----------



## Aussiejeff (23 June 2009)

"Here, kitty, kitty..... got a nice surprise for ya!"

**BLAM**

_*Meee-ooooowwwwwwccchhhh!*_


----------



## gfresh (23 June 2009)

Falling dog?  I think we'll correct back to about 3400, possibly retest the lows at worst.. But there is going to be a ship load of buyers when it does turn around.


----------



## MACCA350 (23 June 2009)

gfresh said:


> Falling dog?  I think we'll correct back to about 3400, possibly retest the lows at worst.. But there is going to be a ship load of buyers when it does turn around.



I think there is a lot of selling off prior to end of financial year to lock in losses/profits and we may see some aggressive buying back in next month, just a guess

cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus (23 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> "Here, kitty, kitty..... got a nice surprise for ya!"
> 
> **BLAM**
> 
> _*Meee-ooooowwwwwwccchhhh!*_




Does a dead cat pay any more attention than a live one - you'll be trying till the bulls come home to roost. Sorry, mixing puns again 

The 'V' recovery turned into the 'L' rebound, which turned into the 'U' second half recovery but now we have the 'h' reality?


----------



## Sean K (23 June 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Does a dead cat pay any more attention than a live one - you'll be trying till the bulls come home to roost. Sorry, mixing puns again
> 
> The 'V' recovery turned into the 'L' rebound, which turned into the 'U' second half recovery but now we have the 'h' reality?



Too early to call W's or L's or U's I think. 

Quite happy with the V to date. If the top shoulder falls over too much I'll be well positioned to make the most of the next bottom of the W. Looking forward to it. 

Trade the fear greed boys, the market is not the economy.

(PS, not saying you all aren't, it's just so negative at times I have a feeling everyone is on the fence)


----------



## Agentm (23 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> "Here, kitty, kitty..... got a nice surprise for ya!"
> 
> **BLAM**
> 
> _*Meee-ooooowwwwwwccchhhh!*_




lol


right between the eyes i think!!!


----------



## drsmith (23 June 2009)

Perhaps the market is reacting to World Bank's statement about an era of lower growth. This of course translates to an era of lower real corporate profitibility growth. When added to EPS dilution from capital raisings to restore balance sheets it is difficult to see markets going significantly higher on a sustainable basis.

I remain of the view that for the next few years at least there will be no or little real growth in share prices although there will obviously be fluctuations in between.


----------



## jonojpsg (23 June 2009)

drsmith said:


> Perhaps the market is reacting to World Bank's statement about an era of lower growth. This of course translates to an era of lower real corporate profitibility growth. When added to EPS dilution from capital raisings to restore balance sheets it is difficult to see markets going significantly higher on a sustainable basis.
> 
> I remain of the view that for the next few years at least there will be no or little real growth in share prices although there will obviously be fluctuations in between.




Which makes picking the gems from amongst the rubble all the more important IMO - if we are only looking forward to bumping along sideways for the next two or three years then getting on to potential winners in the resource or technology sectors is where there are big gains to be made.


----------



## Nero64 (23 June 2009)

For us to get down to the lows again we need another crisis. 

Last year it was the credit crisis and inflationary bubble. 

This year the credit crisis persists, but we need another Lehman Brothers collapse or an escalation in unemployment, or deepening recession. Last year we saw fear and hedge fund redemptions. Many people buying in now will hold out unless they lose their jobs. 

Will the banks still fall though. Can't see CBA sliding back to it's lows of $25. It has outperromed the index in the last few months.


----------



## Gordon Gekko (23 June 2009)

Nero64 said:


> For us to get down to the lows again we need another crisis.
> 
> Last year it was the credit crisis and inflationary bubble.
> 
> ...




A new crisis??
The old crisis was never resolved.
There was a band aid put over a mortal wound.
Now there are leaks all through the dam and its about to burst.
We have the same problems we did six months ago except added to that we have incresed debt and increasing unemployment.
Swine flu may not be as bad as first thought but it is going to cost a fortune in an economic evrionment that is strained already.

July will be very interesting!

Best

G


----------



## Sean K (23 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> A new crisis??
> The old crisis was never resolved.



How much of a fall on the stock exchanges do you need for the damage to be factored in?

101%?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (24 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> A new crisis??
> The old crisis was never resolved.
> There was a band aid put over a mortal wound.




Correct. A bit like putting lipstick on a pig, only the pig turned around at the last minute, but they still all said it looks a lot better than it did before 



kennas said:


> How much of a fall on the stock exchanges do you need for the damage to be factored in?
> 
> 101%?




Very simplistic analysis, company earnings down 35% YOY, Dow down from 14k to 8k. Another season of lower earnings/downgrades, more downside for Dow?

The 'too big to fail' mantra for companies was a comforting thought before the crisis, that was before they did fail. Now, it's government's that are 'too big to fail'. Most people have not even contemplated that yet.

If the USA cannot support it's debt internally ie income taxes etc then it is stuffed, simple maths. Follow the trail from plunging income (inverse to employment?) and you see it's going to get a lot uglier for them and everyone else down the consumption line, like China & Australia?


----------



## Temjin (24 June 2009)

We are still tracking the last great depression (or worse) in many ways.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

A V type recovery? I highly doubt it. Just wait till the Option ARMs get RECASTED in 2010 and one will find subprime problem was really insignificant in comparsion. 


















As the author of the article suggest, it's not good enough just to listen to the greenshots who only see it from a US perspective. Yes, the economic data from there has gotten less worse and was not as "bad" as the last depression, but from a global perspective, it's equal or worse.


----------



## derty (24 June 2009)

I wonder why he starts the comparison of the current crisis with the Depression in April 2008?


----------



## surfziggy (24 June 2009)

Sitting on the fence ready to pull the pin but....

Great depression surely lasted so long because of the protectionist policies of the governments at the time and the initial effects of WWII. Plus it was a learning experience for all the policy makers involved. This time we have the benefit of not making some of the same mistakes again.

There is a similarity in the above charts of course, because now is a period where the economy is going backwards. But I'd like to see how the charts compare to 1987, 1991, 1997.

I also think that there are a lot of people ready to buy the dips. A lot of people will have missed out on the march uptrend and won't want to miss out further. For the moment I wonder if greed has the edge over fear.

But like I said I'll keep my mind open, go with the flow dudes.


----------



## haunting (24 June 2009)

Here is what Morgan Stanley has to say about the global economy on June 19...  it's a bet both ways but frankly my gut feel is the bear case is probably slightly stronger short term. The bull case of 5% growth by 2010 is a little rich by anyone's imagination. Similarly the argument for a depression like economy moving forward is equally "wild". If you get sucked into this, just consider this simple fact - with QE in full swing  with no end in sight until 2010 by most expectations, what's the chance that the western economies would go into depression where there's abundant money circulating in the system?

(Btw, what is the major contributing factor to the 1930 depression?)

Here is the link.

_After the deepest recession, the weakest recovery: While global bottoming is now happening, we continue to believe that hopes for a V-shaped global recovery will be disappointed.  Consumers are likely to be cautious in the face of rising unemployment (labour markets lag), companies will hold back on capex in the face of high excess capacities, and construction activity is unlikely to rebound sharply with house prices still falling in many countries.  Thus, final demand growth is likely to be sluggish in the foreseeable future, despite the strong support from fiscal and monetary policies. In our baseline forecast, we see global GDP expanding at quarterly annualised rates of only 2-3% between now and the end of 2010, unusually low for early recovery phases.  This would take full-year 2010 GDP growth to 2.9% (from -1.6% this year), still well below the 4.7% average annual growth rate in the five years preceding the crisis.  Given the downdraft in activity over the last few quarters, our forecasts imply that it would take until the middle of 2010 for global GDP to return to its previous peak level reached in 2Q08.  In the G-10 advanced economies, which were hit harder than most EM economies by the credit crisis and which we expect to show a very anaemic recovery, only about half of the total GDP peak-to-trough loss of some 4.5% during the recession will have been recouped by the end of 2010.

Could we be wrong? Yes, easily, because of the unprecedented combination of a hugely negative shock to the financial system, whose effects are still lingering, and a massive monetary and fiscal response.  All available models are estimated using data on ‘normal' business cycles and policy reactions, and are thus of little help in gauging what lies ahead.  That's why we continue to emphasise the risks on both sides of our base case and regularly construct a bull and a bear case that should each have a ‘reasonable' outside chance (of about 20% each) of occurring.  In our bear case, we assume that policy finds very little further traction in the advanced economies in the remainder of this year, risky assets tumble again and EM recoveries falter as global risk-aversion returns. Global GDP would shrink by 3% this year (against -1.6% in our base case) and grow by only 1.4% next year (base case: 2.9%).  Conversely, in the bull case, policy finds strong traction, asset markets rally further and the financial sector recovers quickly, translating into a V-shaped recovery that produces close to 5% GDP growth in 2010. _


----------



## Buckeroo (24 June 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> A new crisis??
> The old crisis was never resolved.
> There was a band aid put over a mortal wound.
> Now there are leaks all through the dam and its about to burst.
> ...




Oh so true Gekko - its very simple, its always been the debt, can't run from it, can't hide from it

People are in debt
Companies are in debt
And now Governments are in debt

Recovery comes from people, companies & Governments spending money. 

How long until recovery? I think it may have something to do with how long it takes to pay off our debts (10-15 years?).

A quicker way out of this would be the total collapse of all we know - bankruptcy wipes debt fast, but there would be an awful price to pay.

Cheers


----------



## Temjin (25 June 2009)

derty said:


> I wonder why he starts the comparison of the current crisis with the Depression in April 2008?




Because data show that the rate of decline for a lot of those economic statistic has been much faster than any of the past recessions. If you understood the depression, you would find alot of similarity between back then and now.

Heavy public and private debt over GDP, credit boom with raging stock/property market, speculations everywhere, extreme relax of credit borrowing, etc. It's striking similar when you read the history and it only took 80 years for people to FORGET the lessons. 



surfziggy said:


> Sitting on the fence ready to pull the pin but....
> 
> Great depression surely lasted so long because of the protectionist policies of the governments at the time and the initial effects of WWII. Plus it was a learning experience for all the policy makers involved. This time we have the benefit of not making some of the same mistakes again.




No, they are MAKING THE SAME MISTAKES AGAIN. Not in the way they try to get out of this "depression", but the actions they took that lead to it. They never learnt what caused the depression in the first place, and never knew why the GFC came so suddenly. 

Like I said above, it's the credit boom assisted by massive bank leveraging, ease of lending criteria, securitisation, and massive government interventions that caused it. They did exactly the same thing from 1970s to 2006, but fail to see what that might lead to.  



> There is a similarity in the above charts of course, because now is a period where the economy is going backwards. But I'd like to see how the charts compare to 1987, 1991, 1997.




I don't have the charts for it, but my readings thus far tell me that the rate of decline (industry output, capacity lost, stock market crash) has been MUCH HIGHER than any of the past recessions since the great depression. This may varies between countries and certainly not as true in the US. (at least for their industry output) But it's certainly widespread across all other countries, which is the main argument from the author of that article.

You can't just look at it from a single country's perspective. You need to look at it from a global one and it's much worse than any of the past recessions. 



> I also think that there are a lot of people ready to buy the dips. A lot of people will have missed out on the march uptrend and won't want to miss out further. For the moment I wonder if greed has the edge over fear.
> 
> But like I said I'll keep my mind open, go with the flow dudes.




Yep, the bullish sentiment is still quite high at the moment and most think the bottom is already in and everyone is expecting a V-type recovery. The stock market has an innate ability to suck people back in with false hope and then kick them down all over again. 

Short term wise, if you can trade and make appropriate position and profit, you may do well from this. But anyone expecting to buy the dips and hope to make a killing (or rather, hope to recover the lost) and expect the stock market will return to its previous high again in 12 months time, they would certainly be disappointed. 




haunting said:


> Here is what Morgan Stanley has to say about the global economy on June 19... it's a bet both ways but frankly my gut feel is the bear case is probably slightly stronger short term. The bull case of 5% growth by 2010 is a little rich by anyone's imagination. Similarly the argument for a depression like economy moving forward is equally "wild". If you get sucked into this, just consider this simple fact - with QE in full swing with no end in sight until 2010 by most expectations, what's the chance that the western economies would go into depression where there's abundant money circulating in the system?




The bear case is MUCH STRONGER in the longer term.

Yes, the QE is in full swing but has it really helped at all?

The only way to return to the pre-bust growth is with people continue to borrow and spend beyond their means, and accumulate debt at a faster rate than the GDP/private income. Do you think this is possible again? 

We may not experience the 1920s depression style and see people lining up for food stamps and mass people living on the street, but you certainly will NOT SEE a fast recovery soon. 

A lot of economists who predicted this crisis WAY BEFORE the mainstream ones did are claiming there is an extremely high chance for a L-shape or W-shape type recovery. The recovery would take so long and so mild that it feels almost like a depression, but not a full blown one. 



> (Btw, what is the major contributing factor to the 1930 depression?)




As explained previously already. Credit boom and massive private debt.


----------



## haunting (25 June 2009)

Temjin said:


> As explained previously already. Credit boom and massive private debt...




1) I could be wrong here... but I believe a major cause was the tightening of money supply by the government then. That caused a contraction in the economy that spiralled into a severe recession or depression. This probably explains why currently QE is being chosen to combat the slowdown. In most economists' eyes, deflation is a scourge much harder to control than inflation, at this point, QE seems to have done its job with most distraught economies reporting some sort of bottom and are expecting smallish growth by next year.

Is this good enough to remove the argument that the global economy is heading towards a depression?

2) Back in 1930, the USA was a very dominant economic power, when it got into trouble, it dragged everyone with it. This time around, it is quite clearly shown that there are other "balancing" economic power providing help or leverage to the declining US economy, namely China and some other creditor nations. By totally ignoring these countries' influence in the global economy and arguing for a depression by focussing on the US+EU economies only I think is less than convincing.

3) The possibility of decoupling in global economy. There is every chance that the global economy will move in two different tracks - the US+EU may be moving in an "L" shape in the next few years, whilst the BRIC+Australia and other commodity economies may very well be moving in a "V", "U" direction. Right now China is reporting to be heading for a 6.5%(?) growth the World Bank, whilst ADB is reported to be forecasting a 9%+ growth.

The argument for depression really does not stack up in my view.


Cheers.


----------



## gfresh (25 June 2009)

Temjin said:


> No, they are MAKING THE SAME MISTAKES AGAIN. Not in the way they try to get out of this "depression", but the actions they took that lead to it. They never learnt what caused the depression in the first place, and never knew why the GFC came so suddenly.




Of course.. but history also shows through the worst crisis come the largest rallies, doubling, or tripling.. even from about 1933 to 1938 (in the US) there was a massive stock market rally before a further large correction.. but it still didn't reach the lows of 33. 

After World War II the world was carrying massive debt, and the 50's were a massive boom. Has the human race forgot the wild optimism after these crashes too? Doubtful..


----------



## MRC & Co (25 June 2009)

Cheers guys, some good discussion here.  Food for thought.


----------



## MR. (25 June 2009)

haunting said:


> 1) I could be wrong here... but I believe a major cause was the tightening of money supply by the government then. That caused a contraction in the economy that spiralled into a severe recession or depression. This probably explains why currently QE is being chosen to combat the slowdown. In most economists' eyes, deflation is a scourge much harder to control than inflation, at this point, QE seems to have done its job with most distraught economies reporting some sort of bottom and are expecting smallish growth by next year.
> 
> Is this good enough to remove the argument that the global economy is heading towards a depression?




Sounds plausible and probably correct.  

Wonder how many times governments inflate their own money supplies trying to keep things ticking along while disadvantaging savers.  At what point does it turn to that "dead cat"?  Guess, when governments tighten their belts? 

Heard the other day that we are now looking at the *"square root" *symbol, not the V,W,L or U ..... anyway

This thread is just going to keep on re-appearing!


----------



## haunting (27 June 2009)

From Bloomberg last night...



> _Quarterly profits at the 495 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results since April 7 dropped 32 percent on average, according to Bloomberg data. Analysts expect annual earnings in the measure to decline 15 percent before rebounding 22 percent in 2010, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show._




** the 15% annual earning decline expectation seems credible whilst the 22% rebound expected in 2010 is a big "?" - there don't seem to be any data to support that estimate.



> _‘Deflationary Bias’
> 
> The income and spending data “reflects a deflationary bias in the economy,” said Kevin Caron, a Florham Park, New Jersey- based money manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “Why pay 18 times earnings for an economy with a deflationary burden on its shoulders?”
> _




** if this is the prevalent money man's thinking and if they were to act on this, the markets over are likely be put under selling pressure until they become "cheap" again (fat trimming of 20% off the 40% gain sounds reasonable to me). In any case, it's a good time to go for a summer break, everything works out just fine for them... and why not?


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 June 2009)

MR. said:


> Sounds plausible and probably correct.
> 
> Wonder how many times governments inflate their own money supplies trying to keep things ticking along while disadvantaging savers.  At what point does it turn to that "dead cat"?  Guess, when governments tighten their belts?
> 
> ...




In that case, the "infinity" symbol might be more appropriate!


----------



## RayG (28 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> In that case, the "infinity" symbol might be more appropriate!




LOL,   actually since we are talking debt, we should be taking the square root of a negative number, and that is.....  

Maybe it's Schroedinger's cat?

Regards
Ray


----------



## Buckeroo (29 June 2009)

My thoughts are on the letter 'O' - can't help thinking we will be revisiting 2008 again sometime soon.

Heck, with Governments around the world openly encouraging people to borrow & spend, its great for business in the short term, but the end game will come - wish I knew exactly when, I'd make a fortune.

Cheers


----------



## Gordon Gekko (29 June 2009)

Cash Best as Record Correlation Coefficient Hints Herd Collapse 

The so-called correlation coefficient that measures how closely markets rise and fall together has reached the highest levels ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Now, options traders are paying more to protect against a drop in the S&P 500 versus the cost to wager on gains than at any time since September, when the collapse of New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. froze financial markets. 



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=aaeSiksLwotY

Looking forward to the next 3-6 months

Best

G


----------



## gfresh (30 June 2009)

Damn pesky increase in profit guidance from one of our retailers... JBH did so recently too.. HVN sales have also marginally increased in the last 9 months

http://business.theage.com.au/business/djs-stock-soars-on-guidance-boost-20090630-d2yw.html



> That came shortly after the company announced conditions had improved in May and June, after a flat performance in April, and that it was now trading ahead of the same months in 2008 on a total and like-for-like sales basis.
> 
> It now sees net profit for the second half of fiscal 2009 rising by 20 per cent 30 per cent on the same period last year, compared to earlier guidance of growth of zero to five per cent.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 July 2009)

gfresh said:


> Damn pesky increase in profit guidance from one of our retailers... JBH did so recently too.. HVN sales have also marginally increased in the last 9 months
> 
> http://business.theage.com.au/business/djs-stock-soars-on-guidance-boost-20090630-d2yw.html






> For the year to date, David Jones stock is returning 49.4 per cent against the overall market at 8.7 per cent.
> JB Hi-Fi's total return this year is 60.1 per cent and Harvey Norman's return is 27.7 per cent -- all standout performances.




JBH shorted. Keep the stimulis coming Kev...



> This week’s report from the US Federal Reserve suggested that deflation was no longer a significant risk, while a new forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also suggested that the risk of deflation had been averted.




But then, pesky reality......again!



> Eurozone annual inflation has turned negative for the first time, complicating the job of the European Central Bank as draws a line under emergency measures to tackle continental Europe’s recession.
> Consumer prices in the 16-country eurozone were 0.1 per cent lower in June than the same month a year before, *according to Eurostat*, the European Union’s statistical office.


----------



## MACCA350 (6 August 2009)

Thought I'd check that bear chart again to see how we're looking:





What do you think?

cheers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2009)

DCB

gg


----------



## cutz (6 August 2009)

First time all in experience with an all out panic type bear market and subsequent whooper of a rally, just feels that clear sky has come too quick, the panic is all but forgotten, don't know what to think.

GG what do you mean by DCB ?


----------



## marknz88 (6 August 2009)

DCB = Dead Cat Bounce

its amazing how we are at the top pivot point, just like the oil crisis was....now do we keep going up or do we track the oil crisis down? Thats the $6million dollar question


----------



## cutz (6 August 2009)

marknz88 said:


> DCB = Dead Cat Bounce




LOL,

Another derrr moment.


----------



## Nick Radge (6 August 2009)

Interesting macc355. I'm not disputing you but I will throw a broader historical view at you:

Since the late 1800's there have been 255 recessions. 164 of these have lasted 1-year and just 32 have lasted more than 2-years. In other words 66% of recessions have lasted less than 2-years and 70% last less than 1-year.

The speed of the decline has no impact on duration of the contraction.

Since WWII contractions finish a lot quicker than prior WWII.

No argument that this is somewhat more extreme than the normal and no argument that we can't get a double dip.

Nick 
(enjoying the rally whilst it lasts)


----------



## Real1ty (6 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> DCB
> 
> gg




lol, how long have you been questioning this rally now? Hope you haven't been out of it, that would be painful.

How are some of your calls going?

BHP - $13.00, MQG - Under $1.00 (That is not a typo)

You would have been an excellent contrarian indicator


----------



## Gundini (6 August 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Nick
> (enjoying the rally whilst it lasts)




I hate the rally, I 've been a bear (Polar) for the winter.

Really peeeeeed off I sort of missed this rally 

Even bought some Japan ETF's to stem the bordom...


----------



## Buckeroo (6 August 2009)

Gundini said:


> I hate the rally, I 've been a bear (Polar) for the winter.
> 
> Really peeeeeed off I sort of missed this rally
> 
> Even bought some Japan ETF's to stem the bordom...




I'm a little the same, but am dabbling & making a little money...just be ready to pull out at a moments notice.

The recovery is so far, very similar to the 1920's depression DCB - traditionally September & October are the months when stocks decline, so we will probably know if this is a fair dink rally or not very soon. 

My opinion, I think its going to tank hard so still holding mostly defensive investments.

Cheers


----------



## LeeTV (6 August 2009)

Gundini said:


> I hate the rally, I 've been a bear (Polar) for the winter.
> 
> Really peeeeeed off I sort of missed this rally
> 
> Even bought some Japan ETF's to stem the bordom...



Loving the rally, though I fear we may see a retrace in the not to distant future. This time I won't get caught napping!


----------



## MrBurns (6 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> The recovery is so far, very similar to the 1920's depression DCB -




I was thinking the same thing but there has to be a reason for it to tank and I cant think of what can go wrong that hasn't gone wrong already, unless China stops buying our stuff.


----------



## So_Cynical (6 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


> How are some of your calls going?
> 
> BHP - $13.00, MQG - Under $1.00 (That is not a typo)




To GG;s credit he got the bottom for SUN spot on...in the SUN thread somewhere, if memory serves.


----------



## Gundini (6 August 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> To GG;s credit he got the bottom for SUN spot on...in the SUN thread somewhere, if memory serves.




In his own words. "you can train a monkey to do that".... sorry GG could not resist!


----------



## nunthewiser (6 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


> lol, how long have you been questioning this rally now? Hope you haven't been out of it, that would be painful.
> 
> How are some of your calls going?
> 
> ...





um at least he game to make a few calls ........ you got any ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


> lol, how long have you been questioning this rally now? Hope you haven't been out of it, that would be painful.
> 
> How are some of your calls going?
> 
> ...




Believe me I have been buying BHP at $13 regularly over the last 20 years and will do so again.

MQG is an accident waiting to happen.

gg


----------



## MrBurns (6 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Believe me I have been buying BHP at $13 regularly over the last 20 years and will do so again.
> 
> gg




So you predict they will fall to $13 again ?

I better withdraw the offer I made on a unit in Port Douglas today and conserve my cash.


----------



## MrBurns (6 August 2009)

From my experience Macquaries lending practices were , and I presume still are, reckless.


----------



## Real1ty (6 August 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> um at least he game to make a few calls ........ you got any ?




You asked me in the chat room a couple of months ago my prediction and i explained i just follow the herd, don't have to be smart just a sheep, but my best "guess" was we go higher.

I stated on the other thread, think it is the XAO one, that i am starting to think it will be virtually a V recovery but with some expected dips along the way but we should grind higher. I was wrong as we have rocketed higher. 

You sound like you think it is an admirable quality to make consistently incorrect calls.


----------



## nunthewiser (6 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


> You asked me in the chat room a couple of months ago my prediction and i explained i just follow the herd, don't have to be smart just a sheep, but my best "guess" was we go higher.
> 
> I stated on the other thread, think it is the XAO one, that i am starting to think it will be virtually a V recovery but with some expected dips along the way but we should grind higher. I was wrong as we have rocketed higher.
> 
> You sound like you think it is an admirable quality to make constant incorrect calls.





thanks for the reply and yes i recall our conversation 

no i do not regard it as admirable but i do enjoy ppl,s calls and views regardless of being right or wrong ...... GG  made calls with his opinions at the time and i seem to notice you like to jump on his posts a fair bit regarding them ..im not here to defend GG as he big enough and ugly enough to talk his own talk but i am here defending others that DO make calls regardless of outcome as if they were to be attacked for every call they made , then maybe we wont get any more .

cheers and by the way nice call from chat


----------



## Real1ty (6 August 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> thanks for the reply and yes i recall our conversation
> 
> no i do not regard it as admirable but i do enjoy ppl,s calls and views regardless of being right or wrong ...... GG  made calls with his opinions at the time and i seem to notice you like to jump on his posts a fair bit regarding them ..im not here to defend GG as he big enough and ugly enough to talk his own talk but i am here defending others that DO make calls regardless of outcome as if they were to be attacked for every call they made , then maybe we wont get any more .
> 
> cheers and by the way nice call from chat




That's fair enough and point taken but we all see things differently, which was what makes forums and the world an interesting place.

Those calls are also taken into account by inexperienced traders or those teetering on the edge of making an investment one way or the other.

Sure people shouldn't listen to a faceless person on the net but people do lots of things they shouldn't do 

GG isn't shy stating his opinion on many many subjects all over ASF and by doing so he is opening himself to others opinions and we all have different ways of expressing our opinions.

You will also notice his calls don't come with waivers or caveats usually, they are virtually statements of facts, facts that turn out to be wrong most of the time.

Not sure attacks is an apt description more so a reminder of previous poor calls.

As for the chat call, as i said, just an educated guess more than anything based on common sense. I have heaps of them but keep most of them to myself but of course we are not all the same.

Cheers


----------



## Muschu (6 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Believe me I have been buying BHP at $13 regularly over the last 20 years and will do so again.
> 
> MQG is an accident waiting to happen.
> 
> gg




Sorry but that seems a very defensive response re BHP.  Does it answer the question or perhaps it is more likely, to be fair, that your answer can be justified with elaboration?
Regards
Rick


----------



## Tukker (7 August 2009)

Interesting interview on yahoo news today. 



> World at risk of 'double dip recession'
> Friday August 7, 2009, 7:49 pm
> 
> A senior OECD official says the global financial crisis is far from over and the world faces a serious risk of another credit crunch and a double dip recession.
> ...




I was thinking something along these lines as well, so far there hasn't been any great fundamental news from the macro perspective about the recovery (apart from the share price movements of late). Im scared that we are in for a rough second half of the year.

I know the world is expected to rely less on the US for its trend, but that hasn't happened yet.  We still seem to have a down day when the US has a down day, an up when they do.  

Im usually an optimist, but this interview has put a wrench in my works.

Any comments?


----------



## stow254 (8 August 2009)

This recent dead cat bounce will die eventually. It's only a matter of time


----------



## nomore4s (8 August 2009)

stow254 said:


> This recent dead cat bounce will die eventually. It's only a matter of time




lol, not sure you can call it a dead cat bounce now.


----------



## sammy84 (8 August 2009)

stow254 said:


> This recent dead cat bounce will die eventually. It's only a matter of time




Haha, profound words. It will die *eventually*. Good luck making money on that knowledge


----------



## Buckeroo (8 August 2009)

Tukker said:


> Interesting interview on yahoo news today.
> 
> I was thinking something along these lines as well, so far there hasn't been any great fundamental news from the macro perspective about the recovery (apart from the share price movements of late). Im scared that we are in for a rough second half of the year.
> 
> ...




There's a general stampede on the markets for no other reason but positive talk.

If reality, its a mess:
You have major companies diluting their shares through rights issues & then the share price rises?

You have 1/2 million more unemployed last month in the US & they all saying its good news for the economy?

You have signs in China of a bubble due to the extensive stimulus package & this is OK because its fueling the world recovery?

Our own property market has created its own sub prime situation & everyone's cheering because house prices are climbing?

We are in a period of mass delusion hoping that the stimulus packages will save us. Best anyone can do is to prepare for the worse & also try to make some money from the herd.

Cheers


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 August 2009)

The public relations machine cranks up as the big hooly buys in and bingo, optimism replaces pessimism. 

Momentum, trading with the trend (joining the herd), sentiment, lies, propaganda, exaggeration, doctored numbers.

The stock market. Unreal.


----------



## Bafana (15 August 2009)

Listening to BBC world report last night and they were commentating on the latest good results from Germany. Was interested when the analyst basically said this is most likely going to be a double dip recession with the second round nastier than the last one. My gut feeling is this maybe well be trouble.

Does a double dip count as a dead cat bounce?

When does everyone think the next dip will hit...


----------



## cutz (15 August 2009)

Bafana said:


> When does everyone think the next dip will hit...




Based on gut feeling alone the leg down has already started.


----------



## michael_selway (15 August 2009)

Bafana said:


> Listening to BBC world report last night and they were commentating on the latest good results from Germany. Was interested when the analyst basically said this is most likely going to be a double dip recession with the second round nastier than the last one. My gut feeling is this maybe well be trouble.
> 
> Does a double dip count as a dead cat bounce?
> 
> When does everyone think the next dip will hit...




Well if you are looking at long term downtrend, i think it might be a few years away, so alot of upside till then

The main reason is the GDP growth still happenng in China & India (that's helping the world, Australia teh most), until that moderates to 1-2% pa (currently its 8%) then the bear will start

Thx

MS


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

What does 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001 and 2007 all have in common? 
What does Japan in 1991 have in common with the U.S. in 2007?
What have we learned from these experiences?


----------



## knocker (15 August 2009)

Bafana said:


> Listening to BBC world report last night and they were commentating on the latest good results from Germany. Was interested when the analyst basically said this is most likely going to be a double dip recession with the second round nastier than the last one. My gut feeling is this maybe well be trouble.
> 
> Does a double dip count as a dead cat bounce?
> 
> When does everyone think the next dip will hit...




Next month. Good luck


----------



## satanoperca (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> What have we learned from these experiences?




No - history has a pattern of repeating itself.


Definition of insanity : doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.


----------



## Real1ty (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> What does 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001 and 2007 all have in common?
> What does Japan in 1991 have in common with the U.S. in 2007?
> What have we learned from these experiences?





> What does 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001 and 2007 all have in common?




What do those years have different?



> What does Japan in 1991 have in common with the U.S. in 2007?




What does Japan in 1991 have different with the U.S. in 2007?

See i can do it also.

For all the similarities that can be shown i'm sure there are just as many and probably a lot more differentials that can be shown.

My care factor for this type of backward comparisons is zero as common sense tells you we are in a completely different world now so i am not going to go researching it but here are a couple of differences from 1929 to now.

The governments handled the situation very differently and my understanding is they RAISED interest rates, which was later conceded to be the worst possible thing they could have done.

1929 didn't have a China or an Asia like we have today, nor some of the other developing countries.

As for Japan, they are an older population of savers, not spenders.

I'm sure someone with a better knowledge of the differences or the care factor to research it could provide more reasons why it is different, than the same.


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


> What do those years have different?
> 
> What does Japan in 1991 have different with the U.S. in 2007?
> 
> ...




It appears you are are reading too much into the written word there Real1ty.

The answer to Q1 is ... the stock market dropped.
The answer to Q2 is ... property fell greater than 50% in both countries.
The answer to Q3 is ... NOTHING, we have not learned a thing as we are in the same situation all over again. Repetite, cyclic, wagon wheel, call it what you will.


----------



## gfresh (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> What does 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001 and 2007  blah




Your chart is dodgy.. what index is it comparing? where's the Y axis? Why is the start July 08? the DJI (which I assume it is) started falling in October 2007. I really dislike these charts slapped together cherry picked with certain periods with dodgy scaling to prove how "similar" two periods are.


----------



## Real1ty (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> It appears you are are reading too much into the written word there Real1ty.
> 
> The answer to Q1 is ... the stock market dropped.
> The answer to Q2 is ... NOTHING, property fell greater than 50% in both countries.
> The answer to Q3 is ... NOTHING, we have not learned a thing as we are in the same situation all over again. Repetite, cyclic, wagon wheel, call it what you will.




We have learnt plenty.

Those situations you pointed out are the same sure, but there are plenty more that are different.

We are not in the same situation over again, apart from isolated examples.


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

And what have we learned? That pulling the levers on interest rates slows down the economy? That oil price rising causes overall inflationary pressures? That most of the money flows into the stockmarket 2 years prior to going bust because "Mum and Dad" investors see it as easy money? 

Or is it just me that we seem to be in the same BOOM AND BUST cycle yet again by market factors beyond the normal mans reproach? Have we learned to soften the blow? Ask the car manufacturers and the banks in America if they have learned anything? Burying ourselves deeper in debt to bail ourselves out is not the answer IN MY OPINION. All we are doing is prolonging the agony. Sure we get to live the life of luxury for a little bit longer but have you noticed the BOOM AND BUST cycles seem to be coming in ever increasing faster waves?

Or is it just me?


----------



## MACCA350 (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> What does 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001 and 2007 all have in common?
> What does Japan in 1991 have in common with the U.S. in 2007?
> What have we learned from these experiences?








BTW that 'Present' in your graph looks to be about 8 months ago, not to mention they've ignored the first 9 months or so of the current crash.

cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (15 August 2009)

Agree reality.

Liquidity pump (didn't happen in 29).

Helicopter handouts (didn't happen in Japanese liquidity trap).

Will most probably be late to withdraw liquidity (didn't happen in Japan).

But, recent good data caused by one off (or perhaps a chance of a second round, however unsustainable longer-term), stimulation, inventory rebuilding, cost cutting.  Still too many problems to name for longer-term growth.


----------



## Beej (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> have you noticed the BOOM AND BUST cycles seem to be coming in ever increasing faster waves?
> 
> Or is it just me?




Must just be you - what I noticed was 17 year of un-interrupted economic growth in Australia before the current "bust" = the longest such period since the immediate post war boom time of the 50's and 60's? Prior, there was about 8-9 years between the 91 and 82/83 recessions, the what about the same again back to the early 70s "oil shock" recession?

Cheers,

Beej


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

MACCA350 said:


> BTW that 'Present' in your graph looks to be about 8 months ago, not to mention they've ignored the first 9 months or so of the current crash.
> 
> cheers




Thanks for "the heads up" guys and gals. The chart displayed was a bit passed it's "used by date" and was evidenced for comedy purposes only. The point I am trying to make that the "cycles" of BOOM AND BUST seem to be getting closer together and the pathways of self proclomation seem to be more righteous. It seems we allow ourselves to be sucked into the vortex and when the excreta hits the spinning blades the reaction is toooooooooooo swift for my liking. So what if a company goes broke? Does it require the Guvmnt to bail it out? What does this teach us? A handout mentality? It doesn't matter what we do as corporate citizens because we know that the powers that be will be able to print more money?

PUHLEEASE ! We require a bit of blood flowing in the streets to teach us a lesson on fiscal responsibilty. The same kind of extramonetary affairs seem to be going through the channels of history time an time again. 

What have we learned? NUFFIN. Except to borrow more money to keep us in the lifestyle we have become so accustomed to.


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

Beej said:


> Must just be you - what I noticed was 17 year of un-interrupted economic growth in Australia before the current "bust" = the longest such period since the immediate post war boom time of the 50's and 60's? Prior, there was about 8-9 years between the 91 and 82/83 recessions, the what about the same again back to the early 70s "oil shock" recession?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Beej




Ummmmmmmmm the stock market "FELL" in those years that I have indicated with a knockon effect that disrupted many industries. The building industry in 2001 was ROCKED by the collapse of HIH and needed governement intervention to survive. It seems to me that the ripples of industry have a response far quicker then what is necessary. We seem to live in a society that is too damn quick to bail out people who are swimming against the tide. Let them suffer first ... because they are the clever corporations who got themselves into this mire to start with. NO???

It must be me then.


----------



## drsmith (15 August 2009)

The following chart is from another thread and offers an interesting insight into the bigger picture.

http://www.dowgoldzoom.com/images/dow_gold_zoom.pdf

There were clearly two major crashes in the Dow/Gold price ratio in the 20'th century. What is interesting though is that stock market performance was very different in the two cases. The first was associated with the Great Depression, a sharp deflationary contraction while the second played out over a longer period and was associated with the stagflation era of the 70's.

Nominal performance of the Dow was far better in the 70's than it was in the 30's however after adjusting for inflation the Dow fell ~75% ftom 1966 to 1982.

http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1925cpilog.htm

Also of interest is the two small spikes in the Dow/Gold ratio in the 70's on the long term chart. These correspond to full (or near full) recoveries from severe shorter term contractions in the Dow.

Currently we are going through a third major contraction in the Dow/gold ratio of which if the previous two are any guide has some way to go. How it plays out in terms of nominal share market performance depends on efforts to stimulate inflation but in real (inflation adjusted) terms, equities we have not yet reached a bottom I suspect.


----------



## Knobby22 (15 August 2009)

Interesting Doc.

I don't respect the Dow much as an index, how do the charts look, especially the latter one with the Nasdaq and S&P 500?

And what about the ASX as in my opinion Gold is now a commodity like silver.

Knobby


----------



## gfresh (15 August 2009)

For reference.. and seeing as we're in AUSTRALIA.. 

Here is the "Great Depression" here in Australia and it's effect our market (it's a monthly chart). Believe it or not, our market is quite different to the US market. Obviously the majority of material you are going to read is going to be based on the US market, but be careful extrapolating that to our market.

Anybody feel free to overlay this on the current market , but I think it doesn't suit the right agenda / perspective of the permabears who want everybody believe a lower lower is "any moment" just around the corner and it will wipe you out as soon as you can blink. In reality you have plenty of time to protect your capital if this is only a "dead cat bounce" leading to lower lowers. But until then, plenty of hay to be made. 

Unless you stick your head in the sand during any downturn, with a blanket buy and hold strategy and think "any moment now this will turn around" for years and years on end, you're perfectly safe. Fear is pointless.


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

OK .. I will give it one last pull and if it doesnt start this time I am taking it to the dump.

I am not talking about the ASX and how the money just keeps on flowing like the Amazon. I am talking about recognising the signals of what can and has happened previously in the market place. We do not learn. The market corrects itself ... great ... how about a 10% correction and not 40% dragging down super funds and causing Govts to bail out corporations. Have we not learned anything? What about Japan overheating in the property dept? Did the U.S, learn from them? NUP. They suffered the same fate with 50% drop in major cities. Unregulated borrowing I believe?

I am in no means being a naysayer nor trying to be a permabear. I am asking people to look at the history of what has happened previously and see if we can learn from our previous blunders. Yes it is more than likely that the market will keep on charging ahead and making everybody very happy with it's outcomes for the time being and then when it hits the wall like a bug on a windscreen what do we do then? I know. Turn the key and start all over again.

Goodness me are we that illogical in our repsonses that it would not be adivasable to err on the side of caution? History dictates it. The great machine continues to require sacrifices and there seems to be plenty of willing people to accomodate. IMO.


----------



## Knobby22 (15 August 2009)

Trainspotter

What history? We can only look back to the depression when fiat currencies took over from the gold standard. that's 70 years. And how many recessions in that?

In probability terms there is not enough records and the world keeps changing anyway.

We are going to have some undesirable side effects but the history of stock markets is short and know one really knows what will happen. I personally believe we will get reasonably low growth for a while but if governments get their act together, that's it.

Others are predicting high inflation, a double dip or another bubble in record time.

I don't see how you can hang your hat (or wallet) on history.


----------



## trainspotter (15 August 2009)

Who mentioned recessions? I pointed out that the dates I posted originally were when the "stockmarket" corrected itself. Interest rates go up as people jump out of the toppling inferno and eventually the rates begin to topple and the masses drop their $$ into property. I seem to be speaking a different language to the converted here and will refrain from asking to look to see if there is any way of "softening" the velvet sledgehammer. We do not learn from the previous corrections is what I am spruiking. I personally was very fortunate prior to the market "correcting" and had most of my money positioned in property (70%) and cash (20%) This was due to good fortune and not by any stroke of genius on my behalf. What have I learned? The market has cycles. We are currently going through an up phase in stocks. Interest rates are sure to follow. Property will also peak in the future as well and then ALL of it will drop away again. OOOOOOOOOOOOEEEEER??


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## Trevor_S (15 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> Does it require the Guvmnt to bail it out?




No, it's just Gov't refuse to keep their inept, interfering fingers out of it.



trainspotter said:


> What does this teach us?



 That voters keep electing idiots to Government



trainspotter said:


> A handout mentality?



We have that, have you seen the welfare bill ?  Listen to the squeal if you try and reduce it, or even mention quarantining NG to the loss making enterprise, or suggest CGT on PPOR, or death duties etc etc.



trainspotter said:


> PUHLEEASE ! We require a bit of blood flowing in the streets to teach us a lesson on fiscal responsibilty.





While I agree, what has any of this have to do with the OP ?

Just look to the Storm thread for people wanting to be bailed out and blaming a plethora of other people for their predicament.



trainspotter said:


> What have we learned? NUFFIN. Except to borrow more money to keep us in the lifestyle we have become so accustomed to.




Yes, lots of people doing that 

That said, 



> “There are three kinds of people who make predictions on the market –
> Those who don’t know;
> those who don’t know they don’t know;
> those who know darn well they don’t know and get big bucks for pretending they know”



Burton Malkiel


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## drsmith (16 August 2009)

Knobby22 said:


> Interesting Doc.
> 
> I don't respect the Dow much as an index, how do the charts look, especially the latter one with the Nasdaq and S&P 500?
> 
> ...



I have not been able to find a chart that compares the long term S&P 500 to the gold price however doing some quick calculations from the S&P since 1950 the Dow was about 12x the S&P in 1950, ~8x in 1980 and ~9x now so on that basis I'm reasonably satisfied that the two most recent downtrends on the Dow/gold ratio would be broadly similar on the S&P 500.

The Dow/gold ratio to me paints a picture of a long term bearish cycle in ecomomic terms with declining real incomes for individuals. There will be exceptions and it will be interesting to see what extent China and India can make up for lower long term growth rates in the western world as deleveraging there continues. China and India need international markets to sell their products so they are not isolated from the deleveraging process of the west.

Another chart that paints a longer term bearish picture is the following

http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composi...l?SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression

in that whenever the S&P composite has fallen below the trend line it has ultimately bottomed well below the trend line. This of course is only for the US but the US is still the worlds largest economy.

How though will this manifest itself in terms of nominal share prices. Indebted western governments around the world must be hoping that the combination of inflation and time will mask the fall in nominal terms as it did in the late 60's and 70's and that (to the best of my limited knowledge) puts the large interest rate and quantitative easings into perspective.


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## Knobby22 (16 August 2009)

Doc

You could argue that the world changed massively after WW1, the Depression and WW2 and the line of regression should be taking after this period. This would show the line rising more rapidly which would hint that the low point of this recession has probably been reached already.

I agree though that the US economy has been travelling badly for some years now, and to me it appears to have begun during the 70s and has accellerated ever since but how that relates to the stock market is a difficult to correlate.


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## drsmith (16 August 2009)

Knobby22 said:


> Doc
> 
> You could argue that the world changed massively after WW1, the Depression and WW2 and the line of regression should be taking after this period. This would show the line rising more rapidly which would hint that the low point of this recession has probably been reached already.



Equally it could be argued the large recent above trend area is due in part to the credit growth of the period.

That being said the line does not have to be linear but what would it take to change the growth rate on that scale. Is any specific technological advancement enough or does it require something more profound such as the industrial revolution of the ability to efficiently harness the energy derived from nuclear fusion.

As a side note it's interesting that after WW1 the three major above trend periods have been post severe international conflict/competition (WW1, WW2 and the cold war). Could these have been periods where technological advancements from the military/space exploration filtered into the broader US economy ?


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## Knobby22 (16 August 2009)

drsmith said:


> Equally it could be argued the large recent above trend area is due in part to the credit growth of the period.
> 
> That being said the line does not have to be linear but what would it take to change the growth rate on that scale. Is any specific technological advancement enough or does it require something more profound such as the industrial revolution of the ability to efficiently harness the energy derived from nuclear fusion.
> 
> As a side note it's interesting that after WW1 the three major above trend periods have been post severe international conflict/competition (WW1, WW2 and the cold war). Could these have been periods where technological advancements from the military/space exploration filtered into the broader US economy ?




Very good points, Doc,  Also, what has been the effect of the continuing conctration of wealth? That could mean medical research is becoming more important than industrial research.


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## Donga (17 August 2009)

trainspotter said:


> Who mentioned recessions? I pointed out that the dates I posted originally were when the "stockmarket" corrected itself. Interest rates go up as people jump out of the toppling inferno and eventually the rates begin to topple and the masses drop their $$ into property. I seem to be speaking a different language to the converted here and will refrain from asking to look to see if there is any way of "softening" the velvet sledgehammer. We do not learn from the previous corrections is what I am spruiking. The market has cycles. We are currently going through an up phase in stocks. Interest rates are sure to follow. Property will also peak in the future as well and then ALL of it will drop away again.




Calm down TS, sounds like you are a little overwhelmed by the cosmos. You mention 'we' a lot, and I'm not sure whether you are talking about local investors or Australian society or the global community? The plethora of organisations from local council to UN with wildly differing philosophies, economic objectives and common understanding suggests we (everyone globally) will never live in a predictable world of economic and social order. Not sure I would want to see that. We do our best as individuals, societies to improve our immediate and wider community welfare. I don't believe there is a conspiracy of boom and bust the same way I don't expect anyone controls the way social/political mores swing from left to right etc. Glad to hear you were heavy with property though. BTW I think we are over the worst of this bust and the global economy will continue to recover over the next couple of years, while adapting to continuing shifts in the world order. History has a place for context, not because it simply keeps repeating, way too many variables. Just as humans continue to run and swim faster over time, we also learn and do things generally better.


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

Donga said:


> Calm down TS, sounds like you are a little overwhelmed by the cosmos. You mention *'we'* a lot, and I'm not sure whether you are talking about local investors or Australian society or the global community?  (people in general is the answer here)
> 
> BTW I think *we* are over the worst of this bust and the global economy will continue to recover over the next couple of years, while adapting to continuing shifts in the world order. History has a place for context, not because it simply keeps repeating, way too many variables. Just as humans continue to run and swim faster over time, *we* also learn and do things generally better.




Must be the cosmos overwhelming me/we yet again. I have observed the "corrections" and am asking if there is any way to "soften" the blow. _*ie*_ try and insulate the impact a little. As in if YOU should be able to recognise by now the signals that occur before, during and after the "corrections" that take place repetitively rather than relying on the media ramming the info down our throats. 

Yet again I have failed in my task. Oh well, YOU will find out for yourself soon enough.


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## Gordon Gekko (17 August 2009)

Donga said:


> Calm down TS, sounds like you are a little overwhelmed by the cosmos. You mention 'we' a lot, and I'm not sure whether you are talking about local investors or Australian society or the global community? The plethora of organisations from local council to UN with wildly differing philosophies, economic objectives and common understanding suggests we (everyone globally) will never live in a predictable world of economic and social order. Not sure I would want to see that. We do our best as individuals, societies to improve our immediate and wider community welfare. I don't believe there is a conspiracy of boom and bust the same way I don't expect anyone controls the way social/political mores swing from left to right etc. Glad to hear you were heavy with property though. BTW I think we are over the worst of this bust and the global economy will continue to recover over the next couple of years, while adapting to continuing shifts in the world order. History has a place for context, not because it simply keeps repeating, way too many variables. Just as humans continue to run and swim faster over time, we also learn and do things generally better.




Lets see if the human race can continue to run and swim faster with the most DEBT EVER chained around there necks. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbt3gnqpO-c&feature=related

Good luck

G


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## Uncle Festivus (17 August 2009)

At it's most simplist, the problem is that humans will always take the easy option, and, combined with credit which allows the future to be consumed in the present, we have and are still laying the groundwork for more pain, in the future.

Examples

- the FASB in the US watered down the mark to market accounting rules due to pressure from the Fed, so now banks appear to be healthy again - it hasn't gone away, it just doesn't show up anymore - they are still insolvent! 

- Cash for clunkers - bringing forward future consumption AND subtracting from current consumption

- ephemeral stimulis will result in improving data but then what?  Just a huge debt for somebody else to pay off?

- market manipulation a la Goldman Sachs - dyor - while all the state based banking systems collapse eg Colonial BancGroup has become the biggest US bank to collapse this year.

etc etc etc

We are the credit generations hooked on the easy way out - time for someone to start paying for it instead of postponing payback for the future generations.


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## Donga (17 August 2009)

TS/Gecko - My "we" was defined as we (everyone global) and expected the reader to work out the consistency throughout. As regards "corrections" and softening the blow, that is a skill with elements of luck - bit like life generally. Again I shudder at too much of an orderly world even though agree we (everyone global) should help the disadvantaged and ensure the priveledged chip in more than their share, e.g no govt handouts for private schools. Gecko - is China in your debt equation? I suggest you look up Ross Gittins' column in Sat week ago SMH for some perspective on Australian debt levels. Debt has certainly worked for me over the years. Meantime guys, pls don't worry about my strategies as I'm doing OK with a balanced property/stock portfolio. Didn't sell at ASX 3100, learned a little along the way, almost back to pre bust highs, and still see great opportunities with our miners especially with chinese growth. Today is looking great for BLY, MMR, BDL, FMS, IMA, maybe even PRW so I getter get back to it, then do the real work that I'm paid for


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

There has to be a time when you have to "pay the piper". The never ending credit card is maxed out. Dead cat bounce IMO.


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## gfresh (17 August 2009)

From the other thread.. 



trainspotter said:


> I posted that I have placed my hard earned $$$ back into property for an expectant rise in *12 months time*. In certain areas (like the ones I have suggested) there is a strong possibilty that a greater than 20% gain is likely with little effort and low risk. IMO.




How does that happen without the pied piper continuing to play his tune?


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

gfresh said:


> From the other thread..
> 
> How does that happen without the pied piper continuing to play his tune?




NO debt structure. Green titles in safe. No monies borrowed. Cashed in shares to purchase property.


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## gfresh (17 August 2009)

Yes, but you're not the only mouse in the house  .. usually takes a lot of other little mice buying and borrowing like crazy to give those strong gains you are hoping for.


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

gfresh said:


> Yes, but you're not the only mouse in the house  .. usually takes a lot of other little mice buying and borrowing like crazy to give those strong gains you are hoping for.




Same as the rats in the cage in the stock market no doubt. 

Interest rates are being talked up, general sign that property is not far behind. IMO (in certain areas) Interest rates rising is designed to curb inflation. Inflation means house prices are going up. So is the basic wage yadda yadda yadda. But you don't need me to tell you this ... RIGHT?


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## Donga (17 August 2009)

TS - beware of assumptions pal. Never had credit card debt and always neutrally geared for places I like to kick back (Byron and Port Vila, where I once lived). Super and my play fund are unencumbered. Now I understand why the cosmos has you spooked if you sold out of shares and bought property with no debt. You've restricted your wealth generation to one scenario and IMO there are more ways of living with variables than this, unless you're spinning us a line. As why would you bother haunting these forums l


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

Donga said:


> TS - beware of assumptions pal. Never had credit card debt and always neutrally geared for places I like to kick back (Byron and Port Vila, where I once lived). Super and my play fund are unencumbered. Now I understand why the cosmos has you spooked if you sold out of shares and bought property with no debt. You've restricted your wealth generation to one scenario and IMO there are more ways of living with variables than this, unless you're spinning us a line. As why would you bother haunting these forums l




Thanks Donga for the appraisal. I am dogfood? Not that I know what I am doing by the way. Good for you that you have an unencumbered super fund? LOL I was under the impression that to borrow money in super funds a bare trust must be placed before it etc blah blah blah. Never mind.

Yeppers, I have restricted my wealth programme to two channels. Property 70% and cash at 30%. If you notice there is some great information in here in regards to property as well. Check out the thread "house prices to keep rising" LMAO. I joined here to see what the other traders are up to when I was in the funny money game.

Information is everything. Knowledge is power. Apparently it assists you in making informed decisions. IMO. But thanks Donga anyways.


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## sammy84 (17 August 2009)

The title of this thread should be changed to recovery or bear market rally. The cat got life sometime ago.


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## trainspotter (17 August 2009)

Market down 1% at 2pm today? Banks and miner sell off. Rio downgrades profit forecast 51% .AUD lower at noon on risk aversion from U.S. Negative

Market risen 11 consecutive days. MMR stock up 66% so far today. Property up (Stocklands) Japan GDP expands 0.9 per cent in the June quarter. Positive

Swings and roundabouts at the moment.


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## Wysiwyg (17 August 2009)

All that is required to put the markets in a drawn out sideways motion is the Chinese and Indians to curb demand for raw materials. Hope everyone enjoyed the dead cat bounce off the low.


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## Donga (17 August 2009)

TS - My apologies if I came across superior. Don't think anyone is dog**** unless they crap on other people. I've always liked property, and never been scared to borrow sensibly (used to -ve gear, but not now). Sure Super is not normally leveraged as such, though I could borrow money to plough into wife's super etc. Expect people did this in 2007 to their regret. Best of luck with your property and cash stash, you know you're not going to lose it


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## tech/a (17 August 2009)

Tommorows going to be ugly!


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## drsmith (17 August 2009)

tech/a said:


> Tommorows going to be ugly!



It's been a little while now since I've seen the US futures take a 2% beating.


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## Buckeroo (17 August 2009)

drsmith said:


> It's been a little while now since I've seen the US futures take a 2% beating.




Is this still on the back of poor consumer sentiment in the US? Or something more sinister?

Cheers


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## Aussiejeff (18 August 2009)

Poor puddycat.....

Only one life left.


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## trainspotter (18 August 2009)

tech/a said:


> Tommorows going to be ugly!




Forget tomorrow ... today it is in for a whipping. Does it turn into a pumpkin at midnight? LOLOL.


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## Sean K (18 August 2009)

We could be in for the overdue correction from the bottom also. Potentially a good buying opportunity.


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## snowking (18 August 2009)

kennas said:


> We could be in for the overdue correction from the bottom also. Potentially a good buying opportunity.




i hope it will be a good buying opportunity as i am still accumulating stocks and this latest surge in share prices has gone too far imo.


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## RayG (18 August 2009)

Don't get excited bears, it's the long anticipated bull market correction, nice buying opportunity.


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## moXJO (19 August 2009)

Media might be gathering to bash the XAO down a bit :

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3105309D-1871-E587-E170AAF536C0E7EB


> Recent economic growth data show the massive fiscal stimulus program instigated by the Chinese Government has provided a boost to the Chinese economy, especially in the six months to the end of the March quarter this year, but in the view of Standard Chartered there are now signs this boost is quickly fading.
> 
> This coincides with the Ministry of Finance dialing back on its monetary policy settings, making what it describes as a "moderate adjustment" without providing much detail on what this actually means. Given concerns it could mean something along the lines of increasing the deposit reserve requirement for banks or even an increase in interest rates, shares in China have sold off heavily in recent weeks.


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## bugmenot (19 August 2009)

moXJO said:


> Media might be gathering to bash the XAO down a bit :
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3105309D-1871-E587-E170AAF536C0E7EB




Yep, its started, MSM are going to have a field day with this! Hold on folks, the rollercoaster is about to head through the floor...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auVL4UJfdoJU

*China Stocks Enter Bear Market as Index Falls 20% From High *

 Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks fell, driving the benchmark index into a so-called bear market more than 20 percent below this year’s high, on concern the nation’s economic recovery will falter as the government reins in lending.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.7 percent to 2,774.77 as of 2:44 p.m. local time today, increasing its loss since the 14-month high on Aug. 4 to 20.2 percent. The gauge remains 59 percent below its record level on Oct. 16, 2007.

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package, coupled with record bank lending in the first six months, helped the Shanghai index to more than double this year from the low on Nov. 4. The rally faltered as new loans in July declined to less than a quarter of June’s level, the regulator allowed initial share sales after a nine-month moratorium and companies including Yunnan Copper Industry Co. reported losses. China follows Russia among the so-called BRIC bloc of major emerging economies to have entered bear markets.

“The current correction is reflecting the tightening in lending,” said Andy Xie, a former Asian chief economist at Morgan Stanley, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble. “We’ve seen the peak of this market cycle, though there’s likely to be a bounce as the government seeks to stabilize the market.”

The market may extend its decline by another 10 percent, Xie said Aug. 17. Even with the recent decline, the Shanghai index is trading at 30.4 times reported earnings, against 17.5 times for shares on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months, China Business News reported on June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council, China’s Cabinet.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff for this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net


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## Aussiejeff (20 August 2009)

bugmenot said:


> *Yep, its started, MSM are going to have a field day with this! Hold on folks, the rollercoaster is about to head through the floor...*
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auVL4UJfdoJU
> 
> ...




Nah.....

The new, more positive _"Glass Is Not Empty...Yet"_ attitude will ensure US, UK & OZ markets rocket north regardless.

That old, hoary "Glass Is Half Full" attitude is s-o-o-o passe.


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## Knobby22 (20 August 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Nah.....
> 
> The new, more positive _"Glass Is Not Empty...Yet"_ attitude will ensure US, UK & OZ markets rocket north regardless.
> 
> That old, hoary "Glass Is Half Full" attitude is s-o-o-o passe.




I think the markets will keep rising until everyone is convinced that the worst is over and there is no danger in the market and then it will correct.


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