# Great day to deploy capital :-)



## ROE (14 March 2011)

Awesome day to deploy capital on opening, Thank you Mr Market
still got 20% cash left for more deployment


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## Wysiwyg (14 March 2011)

ROE said:


> Awesome day to deploy capital on opening, Thank you Mr Market
> still got 20% cash left for more deployment




What's this? Mr Fundamental calling a market reversal?


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## professor_frink (14 March 2011)

ROE said:


> Awesome day to deploy capital on opening, Thank you Mr Market
> still got 20% cash left for more deployment




agreed. Have opened up a long on the ES this morning


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## Bill M (14 March 2011)

ROE said:


> Awesome day to deploy capital on opening, Thank you Mr Market
> still got 20% cash left for more deployment




I agree, although I started deploying on Friday. Hoping for another bad night on the DOW tonight for a bigger deployment tomorrow. I love these big down days.


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## VSntchr (14 March 2011)

Indeed it is. Ive been able to top up on 2 of my current holdings and have added one new stock to the portfolio over the last 2 trading days..

CCP has had a big fall from its high near $6...wont have to go too much further before I top up on that baby too


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## skyQuake (14 March 2011)

professor_frink said:


> agreed. Have opened up a long on the ES this morning




So that spike was you buying eh


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2011)

professor_frink said:


> agreed. Have opened up a long on the ES this morning






Bill M said:


> I agree, although I started deploying on Friday. Hoping for another bad night on the DOW tonight for a bigger deployment tomorrow. I love these big down days.






VSntchr said:


> Indeed it is. Ive been able to top up on 2 of my current holdings and have added one new stock to the portfolio over the last 2 trading days..
> 
> CCP has had a big fall from its high near $6...wont have to go too much further before I top up on that baby too




Buy em off yez in October.

gg


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## robusta (14 March 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Buy em off yez in October.
> 
> gg




Maybe you are right gg but I have to admit it is great to see some good value back. 

Almost have my line of credit approved, happy days.


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## bathuu (14 March 2011)

Start deploying people, bring some green days back


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## suhm (14 March 2011)

I'm often wrong but it seems quite a few shares seem to be falling off a cliff, mostly small caps, this is with the US still chugging along obliviously. There seems to be a lot less correlation between the US and aust but seems that it might get ugly here. I'm leveraged throughout the cycle due to my lack of capital and as it allows me to enter positions rapidly if I wish to so I'm always >100% long but have scaled back my positions and hoping I can get a few of my fav large caps on the cheap later this year.


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## tothemax6 (14 March 2011)

So 'deploy capital' means 'buy' right?
Sounds like something an army general would say.
"Deploy the Capital, Mr Smith!". "But Sir! Its untested!" etc etc. 


> Have opened up a long on the ES



What does _that_ mean?


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## Julia (14 March 2011)

Suspect there will be many more even 'better' down days ahead.
No way I'm buying into a falling market.


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## enigmatic (14 March 2011)

I will be waiting for 4650 to be tested again.. at this point i think it will be a good time to get into the market. 

But like you mentioned julia.. I'm waiting for a little upward movement


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## So_Cynical (14 March 2011)

My little average down buy order didn't get filled  maybe tomorrow


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## brty (14 March 2011)

Lots of people bullish on a big day down, not usually a sign of a bottom.

Lots of stocks hit support levels today and duly bounced, yet they hit the support fairly quickly from the top, not my idea of a good place to enter.

brty


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## professor_frink (15 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> So that spike was you buying eh








tothemax6 said:


> > Have opened up a long on the ES
> 
> 
> 
> What does _that_ mean?




I bought S&P500 futures yesterday


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## skc (15 March 2011)

suhm said:


> I'm often wrong but it seems quite a few shares seem to be falling off a cliff, mostly small caps, this is with the US still chugging along obliviously. There seems to be a lot less correlation between the US and aust but seems that it might get ugly here. I'm leveraged throughout the cycle due to my lack of capital and as it allows me to enter positions rapidly if I wish to so I'm always >100% long but have scaled back my positions and hoping I can get a few of my fav large caps on the cheap later this year.




Well I suppose Japan means a fair bit more to us than it does for US.

Also the fact that Japan is a large trading partner with China as well... I wonder if those implications will flow through to the Aus market.

I must say I am very tempted to long XJO and short S&P 500... but I don't have enough capital to bet against the fed.


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## skc (15 March 2011)

Japan is down 12%   $#%#$%

Feels like 2008 again...


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## tech/a (15 March 2011)

Julia said:


> Suspect there will be many more even 'better' down days ahead.
> No way I'm buying into a falling market.




Smartest comment on the thread.
If half of you have done what you have spuiked on about youd be bleeding heavily.
Emotion is a powerful and dangerous enemy to traders.

Unless you can clearly see the bleeding's stopped---Run Forest Run.


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## brty (15 March 2011)

With Japan being our second largest trading partner, I would think the events there would change the fundamentals of quite a few companies.

Would this not make investing on existing/past fundamentals a guess at best, or just a straight out gamble??

With the all ords currently down 125 points, is today a better day to invest?? What about tomorrow??

brty


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## sinner (15 March 2011)

Last nights NY close was a great day to deploy delta neutrals...imho. Aussie dollar straddles were cheaaaaap this morning.


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## lazyfish (15 March 2011)

brty said:


> With Japan being our second largest trading partner, I would think the events there would change the fundamentals of quite a few companies.
> 
> Would this not make investing on existing/past fundamentals a guess at best, or just a straight out gamble??
> 
> ...




Not sure what companies you are talking about (other than companies with uranium exposure), if anything I think the rebuilding is gonna need lots of metal imports.


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## adobee (15 March 2011)

lazyfish said:


> Not sure what companies you are talking about (other than companies with uranium exposure), if anything I think the rebuilding is gonna need lots of metal imports.




If the place has been nuked I dont think they will be rebuilding anything ..


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## tothemax6 (15 March 2011)

professor_frink said:


> I bought S&P500 futures yesterday



But what does 'ES' stand for? And how did you buy these futures?


adobee said:


> If the place has been nuked I dont think they will be rebuilding anything ..



You should see hiroshima .


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## adobee (15 March 2011)

...  check out chernobyl  fall out ..


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## BrightGreenGlow (15 March 2011)

If this Japan thing gets worse I think we will see the asx below 4500. Today might have an emotional thing, however half life is a serious thing. Good luck to those buying. I hope you haven't lost all your capital today... Might look into selling all my stocks and heading towards cash. A few months time might be a reconsideration to enter again?


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## So_Cynical (15 March 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> My little average down buy order didn't get filled  maybe tomorrow




Hey i got filled today  AMM @ 0.28 CPS .. just a little average down.



adobee said:


> ...  check out chernobyl  fall out ..




LOL seriously.

Chernobyl = Graphite reactor with no containment vessel, proper meltdown and explosion of containment vessel = apples.

Japan = LWR's with containment vessels, no meltdown as reactors were shut down and no containment vessel explosion = oranges.

----------------------------------

Its simply stunning how usually sane individuals can be making big money decisions without any adequate understanding of the facts.


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## Tekwrek (15 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> If this Japan thing gets worse I think we will see the asx below 4500. Today might have an emotional thing, however half life is a serious thing. Good luck to those buying. I hope you haven't lost all your capital today... Might look into selling all my stocks and heading towards cash. A few months time might be a reconsideration to enter again?




Yes a BRILLIANT day to DEPLOY Capital if you can afford to flush money down the toilet,
It does look very shaky, the European markets are in FREEFALL Dax down 5.5% on Opening, and the Dow Jones is yet to open.
The fear and panic is very simular to the TECH Crash about a decade ago for those of us that can remember it, unlike the GFC in 97 this downward slide is quick.
And we had people also calling out BUY BUY BUY BUY, as the markrt slid down the abyss.
This current slide is not like trying to catch a falling knife but more like trying to catch a burning Flare.
I would rather miss out on a 1% gain betting that the market will go up than loose more than 10% if i stay in.
Now is the time to pull out and sit in the grandstand.


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## drsmith (15 March 2011)

Tekwrek said:


> It does look very shaky, the European markets are in FREEFALL Dax down 5.5% on Opening.



Dow futures is down ~2%, but that, if not more, is all ready factored into our market.


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## skc (15 March 2011)

adobee said:


> ...  check out chernobyl  fall out ..




The whole nuclear thing is bad but it's just the media focus.

The real story is how the entire Jap government finance can / cannot handle this shock.


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## lazyfish (16 March 2011)

skc said:


> The whole nuclear thing is bad but it's just the media focus.
> 
> The real story is how the entire Jap government finance can / cannot handle this shock.




Agreed.

*http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Glob...-nuclear-crisis-and-Chernobyl-key-differences*



> The Japanese reactors are a completely different design known as Boiling Water Reactors, which are old and tested, and have three quite elaborate systems of containment designed to constrain radioactive leakage, points out Josef Oehmen, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, Mass. “The third containment is designed, built, and tested for one single purpose: To contain, indefinitely, a complete core meltdown,” he writes.




A real shame I haven't researched uranium stocks, something to do over the next couple days I suppose


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## GumbyLearner (16 March 2011)

lazyfish said:


> Agreed.
> 
> *http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Glob...-nuclear-crisis-and-Chernobyl-key-differences*
> 
> ...




until they are on your doorstep and the media sugar coat them!


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## professor_frink (16 March 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> But what does 'ES' stand for? And how did you buy these futures?




ES is the code for the emini S&P500 futures that trade on the CME Globex system. 
a brief run down on it here: 
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500_contract_specifications.html
You trade them through a broker that offers futures. I use Interactive Brokers for this:

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ibg/main.php



skc said:


> The whole nuclear thing is bad but it's just the media focus.
> 
> The real story is how the entire Jap government finance can / cannot handle this shock.




Any supposed financing problems the government may face because of this would just be another media beat up IMHO. They are a sovereign nation that controls their own currency, there is no financing issue. The Japanese government will never have a problem meeting any obligation that is denominated in yen


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## Wysiwyg (16 March 2011)

ROE said:


> Awesome day to deploy capital on opening, Thank you Mr Market
> still got 20% cash left for more deployment



How about today being a better day? 



professor_frink said:


> agreed. Have opened up a long on the ES this morning



 Ouch!



Bill M said:


> I agree, although I started deploying on Friday. Hoping for another bad night on the DOW tonight for a bigger deployment tomorrow. I love these big down days.



You got it.



Julia said:


> Suspect there will be many more even 'better' down days ahead.
> No way I'm buying into a falling market.



Wise lady.



enigmatic said:


> I will be waiting for 4650 to be tested again.. at this point i think it will be a good time to get into the market.
> 
> But like you mentioned julia.. I'm waiting for a little upward movement



Lower but good philosophy.



brty said:


> Lots of people bullish on a big day down, not usually a sign of a bottom.
> 
> Lots of stocks hit support levels today and duly bounced, yet they hit the support fairly quickly from the top, not my idea of a good place to enter.
> 
> brty



Words of experience.


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## tech/a (16 March 2011)

There needs to be exhaustion a last gasp.
*We saw that in my opinion yesterday.* I will be very suprised if we dont have an up day across the world today.

It will be short swift and like everything in a "crash type" scenario an over reaction UP.

Then it will flatten
We now have Wave 3 going to Wave 4 with a further down move wave 5 to come.


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## bbker (16 March 2011)

Is that good or bad?  

Doom and gloom for the next 12 months?



tech/a said:


> There needs to be exhaustion a last gasp.
> *We saw that in my opinion yesterday.* I will be very suprised if we dont have an up day across the world today.
> 
> It will be short swift and like everything in a "crash type" scenario an over reaction UP.
> ...


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## professor_frink (16 March 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> professor_frink said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## skc (16 March 2011)

professor_frink said:


> Any supposed financing problems the government may face because of this would just be another media beat up IMHO. They are a sovereign nation that controls their own currency, there is no financing issue. The Japanese government will never have a problem meeting any obligation that is denominated in yen




Interesting view.

I did read that their financing are mostly from domestic deposits... they might as well call it a tax since people are lending to the gov't at 0.5% or whatever. No wonder there were so much housewife-led carry trade.

The other potential fall out is for Jap to withdraw some of the US bond buying...


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## robusta (16 March 2011)

tech/a said:


> There needs to be exhaustion a last gasp.
> *We saw that in my opinion yesterday.* I will be very suprised if we dont have an up day across the world today.
> 
> It will be short swift and like everything in a "crash type" scenario an over reaction UP.
> ...




Good one tech/a you seem to have a lot of confidence in these waves.

Anyway I bought some ERA yesterday average price $7.46 and some PDN average price $3.44

Almost fully invested.


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## Bill M (16 March 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> How about today being a better day?
> 
> 
> You got it.



Yes and I bought more today. I do not trade as such, I buy for long term dividend income and do not need the capital I deployed at this time, can ride out any ups or downs.


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## tech/a (16 March 2011)

robusta said:


> Good one tech/a you seem to have a lot of confidence in these waves.
> 
> Anyway I bought some ERA yesterday average price $7.46 and some PDN average price $3.44
> 
> Almost fully invested.





I use them simply to read where a trade or chart is at in its maturity---bullish or bearish.
I dont want to be filling up a portfolio when it looks like a bearish turning point and Vice versa.
Right now anything Long is in my view very short term.


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## Muschu (16 March 2011)

tech/a said:


> I use them simply to read where a trade or chart is at in its maturity---bullish or bearish.
> I dont want to be filling up a portfolio when it looks like a bearish turning point and Vice versa.
> Right now anything Long is in my view very short term.




Well expressed Tech....


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## sinner (18 March 2011)

sinner said:


> Last nights NY close was a great day to deploy delta neutrals...imho. Aussie dollar straddles were cheaaaaap this morning.




Aaaahahahahaha...


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## VSntchr (29 March 2011)

So now that its been a few weeks since this thread was created..I must ask...are all the techies still forecasting doom and/or gloom?


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## professor_frink (29 March 2011)

VSntchr said:


> So now that its been a few weeks since this thread was created..I must ask...are all the techies still forecasting doom and/or gloom?




nope.


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## nunthewiser (29 March 2011)

professor_frink said:


> nope.




Yep.

short oportunitys and entrys taken   with nice low %loss on MY defined stop areas at this present time.

but im not using elliot so i cant change the story to suit if im right or wrong


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## sinner (29 March 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> Yep.
> 
> short oportunitys and entrys taken   with nice low %loss on MY defined stop areas at this present time.
> 
> but im not using elliot so i cant change the story to suit if im right or wrong




Weird comment nun, using Elliott is what defines when you are right or wrong in your interpretation.

Just as an example, this is not a trade recommendation, but I note for example tech and Boggo both recently *proposing* a 5 wave impulse down, with 3 waves completed, 4th in progress nearing completion with the 5th being the last impulsive swing of the move. I happen to agree. If the *proposed* 4th wave exceeds a certain threshold, the count was wrong and the trade should be exited at a loss. 

Very cleanly and explicitly defined. I am wrong, at point X.

The count will have to be re-done at this point, but that doesn't mean "changing the story to suit if you're right or wrong" (sic), the wave structure counted was clearly wrong.


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## tech/a (29 March 2011)

Nothings changed all still in tact.


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## nunthewiser (29 March 2011)

sinner said:


> Weird comment nun,  .




Yes.

it was an immature dig for no reason as i was feeling cheeky at the time.

I have now grown up and no longer care about others ideas on what they want to use to spend their cash.

i wish everyone well and looking forward to taking their money in the market.

as you were.


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## sinner (30 March 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> Yes.
> 
> it was an immature dig for no reason as i was feeling cheeky at the time.
> 
> ...




Alright dude, I guess we can't just have a discussion about it then then...

I was trying to understand your comment, I'm flat in the Aussie markets, you are the one who is short (using some analysis which I'd rather hear than *two* weird comments)


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## tech/a (30 March 2011)

All my shorts stopped out last night.
Still have a pretty full portfolio long in the market.
Count still remains the same as above.
But with the SPI at 4811 looks that will alter today.


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## suhm (30 March 2011)

Well i've definitely been wrong to date, not that sad about it as it means I've made some money, just not sure what the market is rallying on, china seems like a bubble, europe and japan in the doldrums, the US printing money to get itself out of a recession the broader fundamentals don't look that great at present, they haven't looked great for quite a long time though, but if the market can shake off earthquakes, a tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, pending debt defaults in europe and civil war in the middle east the bull must still have some legs.


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## Wysiwyg (30 March 2011)

tech/a said:


> All my shorts stopped out last night.
> Still have a pretty full portfolio long in the market.
> Count still remains the same as above.
> But with the SPI at 4811 looks that will alter today.



Gave up some serious points with this rally from 4500, tech/a?


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## tech/a (30 March 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Gave up some serious points with this rally from 4500, tech/a?




Wasnt shorting from 4500.
Shorted Both SPI FTSE and DAX.
Took a hit in SPI and picked up both DAX (70 ticks on Dax one night) and FTSE.
Long portfolio running in the background,culling the weak and buying as triggered.
All in all finished a little down but not un happy.
The whole idea was to hedge and I still will if weakness appears
Which it will.


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## So_Cynical (30 March 2011)

Great day to deploy capital  ?

I deployed some capital the day after this thread opened and its proven to be a very good time to deploy capital....with today's rally i imagine the majority of stocks would be higher than they were on the 14/15th-March.


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## nunthewiser (30 March 2011)

still within stops and parameters.

still short
still long
still awesome

i love youse all


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## Bill M (30 March 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Great day to deploy capital  ?
> 
> I deployed some capital the day after this thread opened and its proven to be a very good time to deploy capital....with today's rally i imagine the majority of stocks would be higher than they were on the 14/15th-March.




I bought 2 loads too and was lucky enough to pick 16 March (the low point) on one of them. The stock I bought was cum dividend too. Was never worried which way the price was going to go as I waited a very long time to buy a great dividend at a cheap price, cheers.



Bill M said:


> Yes and I bought more today. I do not trade as such, I buy for long term dividend income and do not need the capital I deployed at this time, can ride out any ups or downs.


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## adobee (12 April 2011)

Nuclear disaster now on par with Chernobyl April 12, 2011 - 11:37AM
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nu...412-1dbpa.html 






So_Cynical said:


> Hey i got filled today  AMM @ 0.28 CPS .. just a little average down.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## So_Cynical (12 April 2011)

adobee said:


> Nuclear disaster now on par with Chernobyl April 12, 2011 - 11:37AM
> http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nu...412-1dbpa.html






> Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
> 
> LOL seriously.
> 
> ...




And your point is?

Did you actually read the story..ill quote

"Japan's Nuclear Industry and Safety Agency (NISA), the country's nuclear safety watchdog, told national broadcaster NHK that it raised the crisis level to seven as the damaged facilities at the plant were continuing to release large amounts of radioactive substances.

*Japan said this reflected the initial severity of the crisis and not the current situation*."

The bulk of the global nuclear industry and i agree that Japan's Nuclear Industry and Safety Agency has got it wrong....you simply cannot compare Chernobyl to Fukushima Daiichi its just a silly silly comparison not grounded in any reality at all.

Chernobyl = massive reactor core explosion and melt down spewing a radioactive cloud over Europe killing thousands (over time)

Fukushima = No massive core explosions, no massive radiation cloud, no core meltdown, no reactor vessel breach, no runaway nuclear reaction/s...notice the continual use of the word no, because essentially no-thing much happened.


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## mr. jeff (15 April 2011)

Has anyone noticed that a lot of  ASX stocks seem to be forming a descending triangle right now.
Can anyone offer an insight into why apart from that the stock values went up and now have slowly cooled off again?
I am looking to gain an idea of what seems to affecting this and whether there will either be impetus for a sudden move up or down...
I might be getting a little bit too creatively observant, but for example;
PEN
SDL
FMJ
FML
IDC

I wonder what macro stuff is coming that might head us either way. Could be a sign that there is a good change expected, or perhaps things were overpriced and looking at a sharp downwards spike. Is it anticipation of earnings in the US. Just a thought, I personally only trade based on the stocks price action, so this may seem a  contradiction....


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## xyzedarteerf (15 April 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Has anyone noticed that a lot of  ASX stocks seem to be forming a descending triangle right now.
> Can anyone offer an insight into why apart from that the stock values went up and now have slowly cooled off again?
> I am looking to gain an idea of what seems to affecting this and whether there will either be impetus for a sudden move up or down...
> I might be getting a little bit too creatively observant, but for example;
> ...




so you noticed this to huh...yeah I personally was in and out of the few mentioned above, but I just don't feel like buying at the moment. dunno maybe its got something to do with the planets or the current worldly matters.


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## robusta (23 May 2011)

Not long now, soon it will be time to throw everything you have got into the market.


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## Uncle Festivus (24 May 2011)

The catching knives thread? There's a good reason why sp's are so 'cheap'. Feel sorry for those leveraged or margined long - playing with fire.........great day to preserve capital?


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## skc (24 May 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The catching knives thread? There's a good reason why sp's are so 'cheap'. Feel sorry for those leveraged or margined long - playing with fire.........great day to preserve capital?




While the direct effects of QE2 ending is unpredictable, the prudent way is definitely capital preservation.

For the Aussie market to fly in the face of such uncertainty is not impossible, but improbable imo.


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## professor_frink (24 May 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The catching knives thread? There's a good reason why sp's are so 'cheap'. Feel sorry for those leveraged or margined long - playing with fire.........great day to preserve capital?




One of my knife catching systems fired off a long signal overnight so I'm long a small lot on the SPY at last night's close with no fixed stop.

I've additional underwear at the ready for when I get up in the morning. Wish me luck


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## tothemax6 (24 May 2011)

robusta said:


> Not long now, soon it will be time to throw everything you have got into the market.



And when will that be? Any particular signal, or just 'when it feels right'?

People have their eyes on the EU and the US too much. That just who the news agencies are looking at. China is the issue.


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## mr. jeff (24 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> And when will that be? Any particular signal, or just 'when it feels right'?
> 
> People have their eyes on the EU and the US too much. That just who the news agencies are looking at. China is the issue.




it may be a good time to step aside and watch the drama unfold, there is a lot of drama around and the ASX is moving like a drunk, spasming yoyo. If you are trading and losing consistently, sometimes you have to take a break and wait for the timing to be right once again. 
There is something very neat and efficient about standing aside and watching the pain of other's trades and waiting for the time when you can re-enter and start watching those repetitive 5% / day moves over weeks at a time. 
To relate that to this thread, be ready for the great day to deploy capital, this is a very good time to be researching potentials, noting project dates and having the ammunition all stacked up in rows.


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## brty (24 May 2011)

I have just performed a quick recap of this thread, and indeed the original poster, ROE's thoughts, were a good day to employ capital. I was one of those who thought otherwise and was incorrect on this occassion.

 Well done ROE, I hope you made a motza and cashed out. 

brty


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## robusta (25 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> And when will that be? Any particular signal, or just 'when it feels right'?
> 
> People have their eyes on the EU and the US too much. That just who the news agencies are looking at. China is the issue.




No particular signal but it felt right today; a screen full of red, everyone saying the market is heading lower and a couple of companies sp falling to a price I am prepared to pay (ZGL @ $0.48 in particular)


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## tothemax6 (25 May 2011)

robusta said:


> No particular signal but it felt right today; a screen full of red, everyone saying the market is heading lower and a couple of companies sp falling to a price I am prepared to pay (ZGL @ $0.48 in particular)



Well you could be right, I just think there is more bad news coming.


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## mr. jeff (25 May 2011)

robusta said:


> No particular signal but it felt right today; a screen full of red, everyone saying the market is heading lower and a couple of companies sp falling to a price I am prepared to pay (ZGL @ $0.48 in particular)




The problem with this is that this is how you feel when you force yourself to detach from the market and then you don't know when to buy except not when everyone says you should be buying. Think back to the carnage that began in 2008. After a very bad week, you could think, "this is good sharp, quick dip to buy into".

then a loss. Then after a few more months, same thing again. 
Then everyone was worried that things were never going back to the way they were, so you didn't know whether you would actually be right in buying at all. then after the fact, buy once again, when bailout were done and dusted.
And finally it moved favourably. how much chasing should you do and does anyone have a definition of when to deploy except for when it feels particularly painful?
 this is partially a thread for traders feeling pain in my opinion. I've done it myself.

Need a way of identifying a re-entry point, not just a gut feel. 
1. Support/resistance must be one. 
2. Major change in global issue (debt, US printing, Libya, Fukushima).
3. Return of major volume ? (particularly applicable now)

more?


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## tothemax6 (25 May 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Need a way of identifying a re-entry point, not just a gut feel.
> 1. Support/resistance must be one.
> 2. Major change in global issue (debt, US printing, Libya, Fukushima).
> 3. Return of major volume ? (particularly applicable now)
> ...



I would say (1) would be useless, during such an event prior prices are irrelevant. (2) sure, (3) maybe. But really, one needs to know when there is danger of a crash. This can only come from insight into current macroeconomics. Seeing credit expansion, housing prices decoupling from rent yields, accross-the-board inflation of asset prices etc.


----------



## Halifax (26 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> I would say (1) would be useless, during such an event prior prices are irrelevant.




I wouldn't say that necessarily. The GFC caused our market to retrace back to a previous resistance/support level, and it took a break or bounced at minor support/resistance levels on the way down. I'd say prior prices are always relevant.


----------



## robusta (3 August 2011)

Maybe not today or tomorrow ..... but soon


----------



## ROE (3 August 2011)

I sort of open 

I have a few naked put options on stock I want to own


----------



## Uncle Festivus (4 August 2011)

robusta said:


> Maybe not today or tomorrow ..... but soon




Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains – New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929 *October 29, 1929 – Stock Market Crashes!*


----------



## robusta (4 August 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Brokers Believe Worst Is Over and Recommend Buying of Real Bargains – New York Herald Tribune, October 27, 1929 *October 29, 1929 – Stock Market Crashes!*




Love it! I guess that is why they call it risk.


----------



## skyQuake (5 August 2011)

So anyone else buying the gap down and into the morning panic ?


----------



## tech/a (5 August 2011)

No
I think sky diving blindfolded and without a parachute is safer.
Battlefields are littered with dead bodies of hero's.

Remember the DJIA was 6500 and now 11,300
the FTSE 3500 and is now 5600.

The GFC was all about the US.
This is now a combination of Europe debt and US debt.
Far worse.
Short any bounce in my view particularly on low volume.(The bounce)


----------



## skc (5 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> So anyone else buying the gap down and into the morning panic ?




I am not that brave... I have a few low balls in on individual stocks that might flash crash (e.g. 30% fall) but otherwise I am sticking to pairs trading this month...


----------



## nomore4s (5 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> So anyone else buying the gap down and into the morning panic ?




I will be on the futures if the open plays out like I expect it too, which of course means it won't


----------



## ROE (5 August 2011)

I been bore lately now time to get busy ...Bargain start to show up again


----------



## alexc2005 (5 August 2011)

the real question is... is this the low?

Or are you all going to deploy capital just for it to get lower?

I'm a bit scared to buy now... not a good time to be afraid though. Need to see it as an opportunity. But its kindof hard when im down 12% on opening.. ouch.


----------



## Logique (5 August 2011)

The late sell off in our market yesterday afternoon, and overnight in the US, has me suspicious of news leaks in the US. Need to see how the Friday night US action runs.

But yes, I'm busy scrutinizing some precious metals and REE plays, no question about it. Clouds and silver linings.


----------



## skyQuake (5 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> I will be on the futures if the open plays out like I expect it too, which of course means it won't




Not enough stop losses selling/margin calls/retail panic on the SPI to make it worthwhile imo.
Plenty of stocks (esp the favourites) that opened low, got force liquidated, then bounced hard.
SPI is just too fat


----------



## skc (5 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Not enough stop losses selling/margin calls/retail panic on the SPI to make it worthwhile imo.
> Plenty of stocks (esp the favourites) that opened low, got force liquidated, then bounced hard.
> SPI is just too fat




Plenty of those indeed, but none that I was watching!!!

My 3 screen of 0.5m pixels just not big enough to see everything...

Haven't had this kind of action for a long time...


----------



## robusta (5 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> the real question is... is this the low?
> 
> Or are you all going to deploy capital just for it to get lower?
> 
> I'm a bit scared to buy now... not a good time to be afraid though. Need to see it as an opportunity. But its kindof hard when im down 12% on opening.. ouch.




Yep hard to resist going "all in" for my. I have decided to watch the news and only buy one company a day. If you can pick the low good luck to you.


----------



## wayneL (5 August 2011)

ROE said:


> I been bore lately now time to get busy ...Bargain start to show up again




Define 'bargain'.


----------



## ROE (5 August 2011)

I spent 52K shopping today..

Still got more ammunition when the time comes...

I just top up the usual suspect CCP and TGA


----------



## So_Cynical (5 August 2011)

wayneL said:


> Define 'bargain'.




Buying stocks with a very high potential for profit because there are holders panic selling.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (6 August 2011)

ROE said:


> I spent 52K shopping today..
> 
> Still got more ammunition when the time comes...
> 
> I just top up the usual suspect CCP and TGA




I hope it wasn't shares??



> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) ”” The United States late Friday lost its  triple-A debt rating from Standard & Poor’s for the first time in  history, with the credit-rating agency saying the political system of  the world’s top economy has become less stable and that budget cutting  announced earlier this week didn’t go far enough.
> 
> S&P lowered its rating on the U.S. by a notch to AA+ and, to  compound the embarrassment, said the outlook is negative as well, as it  threatened another reduction in two years.




The cost of credit just went up, the interest bill on $15Trillion of US debt just went up.

Hardly the climate for the next bull market from here?


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> Buying stocks with a very high potential for profit because there are holders panic selling.




So nothing to do with 'value'?


----------



## cynic (6 August 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The cost of credit just went up, the interest bill on $15Trillion of US debt just went up.
> 
> Hardly the climate for the next bull market from here?




Well knowing our good friend Benny, armed with a recently increased credit limit,  I sense a quantitive easing in the works (unless of course they've miraculously learnt from their previous follies).


----------



## skc (6 August 2011)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I hope it wasn't shares??
> 
> The cost of credit just went up, the interest bill on $15Trillion of US debt just went up.
> 
> Hardly the climate for the next bull market from here?




That's the trillion dollar question. Will the interest bill actually go up? 

Logic says it will and should, but we saw US treasuries yield fell over the last week as one of the sources of the troube is still perceived as safe haven.

To me it's 50/50 what happens from here on which spells volatility. Unless of course the Chinese stop buying US bonds... then all bets are off.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 October 2011)

Good day to deploy capital.  Should be at least another 100-200 points in this rally.


----------



## robz7777 (6 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Good day to deploy capital.  Should be at least another 100-200 points in this rally.




Why?


----------



## skc (6 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Good day to deploy capital.  Should be at least another 100-200 points in this rally.




Unless Dexia blows up tonight...


----------



## McLovin (6 October 2011)

skc said:


> Unless Dexia blows up tonight...




Even more worrying...



> There are three phrases the market never wants to hear. Ever. They are "contingency", "just in case", and "only." Alas, it just got all three of them in an article just released by French Le Figaro which, per Bloomberg, has disclosed that "France has been working for a number of days on a plan that would allow the state to take a stake in the country’s financial institutions if needed, Le Figaro reports, citing a source. The plan, the article continues, is being prepared “just in case” it’s needed and only 2 or 3 banks may be affected under plan." So, let's get this straight: France has scrambled to put together a nationalization plan to bail out just "2 or 3" banks, "if needed"... Uhhh, all we can say to this is, LEEEEEEEROOYYYYYYY JENKINS.




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/le-fi...y-just-case-nationalization-plan-2-or-3-banks

Dexia is toast. I can't believe they have lasted as long as they have, ~EUR560bln in assets and ~EUR7bln in tangible equity (a further haircut on their Greece or Italian debt should wipe that out). The worst bit out of this whole Dexia thing, is the ECB "stress tested" Dexia 3 months ago and gave them a clean bill of health. How many other European banks are dead men walking?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 October 2011)

robz7777 said:


> Why?




A +3% day and channel breakout on the Ords.


----------



## robusta (6 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A +3% day and channel breakout on the Ords.




Just my opinion but yesterday would have been a better day.


----------



## investorpaul (6 October 2011)

I gave up reading zerohedge.

I spent most of 2009 and 2010 being bearish given the soverign debt issues, etc

But now I try and be as neutral as possible. When you classify yourself as a bear or bull too often you ignore either the positives or negatives (depending on what camp your in)

If you live in America then yes your world may be collapsing (as per the constant zerohedge articles remind us) but opportunities will rise somewhere else.

I much rather live in Australia where we will never be "Number 1" but can hopefully remain in the top 20 - 30


----------



## ROE (6 October 2011)

There is always something bad going on around the world 

Make sure you invest in business that can withstand bad news 
then when stuff is cheap, it is good news all around for you even
a few countries or banks went belly.


----------



## McLovin (6 October 2011)

investorpaul said:


> I gave up reading zerohedge.
> 
> I spent most of 2009 and 2010 being bearish given the soverign debt issues, etc
> 
> ...




I don't disagree with you, I find most bloggers take the "sky is falling in" approach to blogging. I only posted from ZH because I can't find the original article on Bloomberg.


----------



## So_Cynical (6 October 2011)

robusta said:


> Just my opinion but yesterday would have been a better day.




+1


----------



## nulla nulla (6 October 2011)

Yesterday was a buying day, today was a selling day. IMO. 
I expect tomorrow for the xao to fall back. If it holds, great. If it goes higher I will be amazed.


----------



## VSntchr (7 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Yesterday was a buying day, today was a selling day. IMO.
> I expect tomorrow for the xao to fall back. If it holds, great. If it goes higher I will be amazed.




Up again. Question is, is it time to sell the shorts..or sell the stocks!


----------



## investorpaul (7 October 2011)

McLovin said:


> I don't disagree with you, I find most bloggers take the "sky is falling in" approach to blogging. I only posted from ZH because I can't find the original article on Bloomberg.




McLovin I agree about the 'blogger' part as well.

I notice alot of bloggers say that the "mass media" just feed the positive hype to the masses and in general I agree with this. But then these same bloggers ignore any positive news and talk as if the world is going to collapse tomorrow.

I would love to find a great blog that has a balanced opinion on both positive and negative news, however, I guess the whole idea of blogging your throughts appeals to those who are very opinionated on the matter one way or another.


----------



## McLovin (7 October 2011)

investorpaul said:


> McLovin I agree about the 'blogger' part as well.
> 
> I notice alot of bloggers say that the "mass media" just feed the positive hype to the masses and in general I agree with this. But then these same bloggers ignore any positive news and talk as if the world is going to collapse tomorrow.
> 
> I would love to find a great blog that has a balanced opinion on both positive and negative news, however, I guess the whole idea of blogging your throughts appeals to those who are very opinionated on the matter one way or another.




I think Bronte Capital is probably the best Australian based blog. Although it tends to be more focused on equities and company analysis rather than macro issues. John worked at Platinum and has a particular interest in shorting Chinese equity frauds which if nothing else makes for interesting reading!

I also like Stableboy Selections and The Aleph Blog

I used to like Houses and Holes when it first started but I'm finding that the new MacroBusiness blog is turning into a Doomsday cult.; there is too much Groupthink going on.

Maybe we should start a blog thread?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 October 2011)

Could go to 4400 if Eurozone sentiment remains positive.

4400 is the top of the channel above the one it just broke out from yesterday.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 October 2011)

Okay, I am amazed. Huge rally with a small drift back before close (in my shares anyrate).  Tonight on the international markets will be very interesting, bulls on a rampage or bears back out of their caves?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 January 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Could go to 4400 if Eurozone sentiment remains positive.
> 
> 4400 is the top of the channel above the one it just broke out from yesterday.




Just blowing my own horn here.  Toot.

Also to say that I think now is the time to deploy again.  AORD is teetering on the brink of a very big symmetrical triangle breakout... to the upside.  That plus the pSAR (.017,.017) indicator has been broken to the upside, which is a very reliable indicator to use on the Ords.  I don't think it has ever failed to add at least 5% on breaking it.

Yet one more very positive sign was the markets' (US, AUS) ability to shrug off the World Bank's recent warning of a recession in 2012 worse than 2008.  

Load up.


----------



## notting (20 January 2012)

Feels like it's rolling over.


----------



## Chasero (20 January 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just blowing my own horn here.  Toot.
> 
> Also to say that I think now is the time to deploy again.  AORD is teetering on the brink of a very big symmetrical triangle breakout... to the upside.  That plus the pSAR (.017,.017) indicator has been broken to the upside, which is a very reliable indicator to use on the Ords.  I don't think it has ever failed to add at least 5% on breaking it.
> 
> ...




Yep, can see a few charts here for bullish views: NASDAQ one shows it nicely

http://www.avidchartist.com/


----------



## robusta (20 January 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just blowing my own horn here.  Toot.
> 
> Also to say that I think now is the time to deploy again.  AORD is teetering on the brink of a very big symmetrical triangle breakout... to the upside.  That plus the pSAR (.017,.017) indicator has been broken to the upside, which is a very reliable indicator to use on the Ords.  I don't think it has ever failed to add at least 5% on breaking it.
> 
> ...




Depends a bit on your strategy but for someone like me who likes to buy the dips I think there may be better days ahead to deploy capital.


----------



## suhm (20 January 2012)

I actually have increased my position over the last couple of weeks, seemed like people were getting over the bad news. I.e. market going up in spite of negative newsflow.

Not sure its a difinitive move up more likely range trading again but going to the top of the range instead.


----------



## So_Cynical (20 January 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just blowing my own horn here.  Toot.
> 
> Also to say that I think now is the time to deploy again.  AORD is teetering on the brink of a very big symmetrical triangle breakout... to the upside.
> 
> Load up.




Nope....August > October was the time....as posted by myself, robusta and ROE at the time.

Toot toot.


----------



## suhm (21 January 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Nope....August > October was the time....as posted by myself, robusta and ROE at the time.
> 
> Toot toot.




Really? You had a 1 week window in August and a 1 month window sept-oct to buy cheaper than the current price, smaller for any significantly large difference in XAO, individual stocks may have performed differently but the market has largely range traded during that time.

Seems to be taking a more measure approach to the top of the range this time and my thought was that this time there would be a greater chance of cracking the 4400 mark significantly.


----------



## Tyler Durden (21 January 2012)

Maybe I'm just being negative, but I have a gut feeling this is just a build up for a smash down later this year.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 January 2012)

suhm said:


> Really? You had a 1 week window in August and a 1 month window sept-oct to buy cheaper than the current price, smaller for any significantly large difference in XAO, individual stocks may have performed differently but the market has largely range traded during that time.




Charts don't lie..August > October clearly saw the low point and had slightly lower highs therefore was the time to buy...look at the average line, we are above that now so by my way of thinking past the "best" time to buy....others look at rising markets differently.
~


----------



## suhm (21 January 2012)

I'm pretty sure your chart is making my point. Look how long the market was below your average line, 1 week in August and 1 month sep-oct otherwise you have bought above the average with the market not much above the average at present yet.


----------



## tech/a (21 January 2012)

This market is as boring as bat doodoo.
It's ranging and not showing the slightest 
Reason to plung in a bullish or bearish fashion.

Out of the market is a position.
One I choose.

Even index trading is lack luster.

Seriously makin statements about direction at the moment is pure guess work.
The market will give you plenty of time to take advantage of it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 January 2012)

As you can see, low volumes typical of January.  As the fundies get back into gear, the momentum will strengthen.  Yellow marks the upside break.

So cynical your toot doesn't make sense.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 July 2012)

Today is a great day to deploy capital, medium term time frame.  A heap of charts are looking bullish.  IMO.


----------



## robusta (17 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Today is a great day to deploy capital, medium term time frame.  A heap of charts are looking bullish.  IMO.




I hope you are right I just deployed the last of my capital today, it would be nice to see some gains at least until I can scrape together some more cash.


----------



## mr. jeff (15 November 2012)

Is it today ? 




We could see a short term reversal of trend now that we have pushed down, but there is certainly room for more falls. 
Can't see this  sell-down continuing until the cliff has been avoided without some relief...


----------



## Knobby22 (15 November 2012)

Looking ready for a fall. 
I'm cashed up so would be happy to see it.


----------



## skyQuake (15 November 2012)

Probably best to buy dips tomorrow morning. Some dramatic moves today but don't think its capitulated


----------



## willstor (18 November 2012)

Tse at 1.53 barring a disaster on their next dividend looks OK. Over sold.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2013)

Maybe today.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 December 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Maybe today.




I'm surprised at how crap the SPI was yesterday considering the news from China and the reaction that everything else was getting. And these late US sell offs have a hint of a new "theme" about to take hold....... which will probably be the old one of Dectaper.... Febtaper..... etc


----------



## kid hustlr (3 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm surprised at how crap the SPI was yesterday considering the news from China and the reaction that everything else was getting. *And these late US sell offs have a hint of a new "theme" about to take hold*....... which will probably be the old one of Dectaper.... Febtaper..... etc




Yeah noticed this too. For so long its been buy the last hour in the mini, perhaps a slight changing of the guard


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 January 2014)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Maybe today.




Wonder where GB has got to?

Maybe a confidence retreat in the Caribbean? :bowser:


----------



## Porper (15 January 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Wonder where GB has got to?
> 
> Maybe a confidence retreat in the Caribbean? :bowser:




Over the years it's been amazing how many new posters appear, full of ideas and anticipation and make dozens of posts daily only to disappear. Not saying that's the case with G.B but it highlights the fact that most fail in the markets eventually.

Thing is when most give up they are often on the verge of being profitable.


----------



## skc (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> *Thing is when most give up they are often on the verge of being profitable.*




How do you know that to be the case?


----------



## Porper (15 January 2014)

skc said:


> How do you know that to be the case?




Experience


----------



## cynic (15 January 2014)

My experience is that people often abandon fruitless pursuits because they've finally convinced themselves of the futiility of same. 

Although I could entertain the possibility that some may have the misfortune of being on the verge of success just prior to surrender, I could equally argue that many were on the verge of continued losses from their unproductive endeavours.

P.S. Let's make a concerted effort to employ that potent confidence magic (so kindly bestowed on us humble brethren by the prophetic G.B.) and confidence G.B. back into participation of this forum!


----------



## Julia (15 January 2014)

Porper said:


> Over the years it's been amazing how many new posters appear, full of ideas and anticipation and make dozens of posts daily only to disappear. Not saying that's the case with G.B but it highlights the fact that most fail in the markets eventually.
> 
> Thing is when most give up they are often on the verge of being profitable.



Perhaps sometimes people join, stay a while, make contributions, don't feel they get too much back, and go away.
To assume they leave because they fail in the market seems a bit unreasonable to me.

GB was/is unusual.  That meant that, whilst he could be frustrating at times, he brought colour and interest with his different ideas.  If he has departed permanently, it will be loss to ASF imo.


----------



## qldfrog (16 January 2014)

Julia said:


> GB was/is unusual.  That meant that, whilst he could be frustrating at times, he brought colour and interest with his different ideas.  If he has departed permanently, it will be loss to ASF imo.



+1
So does anyone knows what happenned to GB?
I hope he is OK and will be back.


----------



## robusta (1 December 2014)

Here we go again. giddy up folks


----------



## ROE (1 December 2014)

yeah Giddy up into 2 stocks


----------



## Bill M (1 December 2014)

I just sent some $$$$$$$$ to my super account and will be deploying this week. Luckily I went to 100% cash in my other super account which is fully managed, that was more luck rather than tea leaf reading.


----------



## robusta (1 December 2014)

Bill M said:


> I just sent some $$$$$$$$ to my super account and will be deploying this week. Luckily I went to 100% cash in my other super account which is fully managed, that was more luck rather than tea leaf reading.




I admire your control Bill M, I know the market will often offer up good prices in the future but often have trouble keeping the spare cash on hand to take advantage.


----------



## Nortorious (1 December 2014)

Whilst I'm many years from a self funded retiree (only 28 y.o.), I would personally be holding off on deploying any fresh capital in the market from a technical standpoint.

You can see below that the XAO is below its 30 week weighted moving average (bearish indicator) and that the latest high was a lower high from the previous. My thinking is this is headed lower and if it falls through 5121 it could be going even lower in the short term...

Interesting times.... Whilst the stocks I'm in haven't started pointing down as yet, I have tightened the stop losses on them all to brace for the worst. Not expecting the worst but strange things happen in the financial markets.


----------



## robusta (1 December 2014)

I see your point from a technical perspective Notorious. From my perspective as a long term investor these are often exactly the type of pullbacks I like to buy into. The markets seem to often take three steps forward then two steps back seems logical to me to try to buy on the two steps back and wait...


----------



## Julia (1 December 2014)

Nortorious said:


> Whilst I'm many years from a self funded retiree (only 28 y.o.), I would personally be holding off on deploying any fresh capital in the market from a technical standpoint.



We have one significantly down day and people are piling into stocks.
There is no indication that commodity prices are about to turn around or the dollar reverse its downtrend so little reason to expect the XAO to turn up at this stage.

Might be useful to look at the point at which people gleefully bought into MND some while ago.  The XAO today is down about 2%.  MND is down a further 7.47% further confirming a strong downtrend.


----------



## Bill M (2 December 2014)

robusta said:


> I see your point from a technical perspective Notorious. From my perspective as a long term investor these are often exactly the type of pullbacks I like to buy into. The markets seem to often take three steps forward then two steps back seems logical to me to try to buy on the two steps back and wait...




The same here. My super fund is there for me until the day I die, so everything I put in there is for the rest of my life and I have no intention of pulling out lump sums. My plan has been the same for many years now and that is to put the $$ to work for me. So that leaves me to invest in cash, stocks, fixed interest, LIC's or EFT's. As the return on cash is so low I intend to drip feed more funds into solid companies or ETF's that pay good dividends and I do this only during pullbacks or corrections. 

I have a great deal of patience and I have no need for the capital that I deploy into my super account. It is there to pay me a private pension for the rest of my life. Capital gains are a bonus but a reliable dividend stream is more important to me.

I am cautious and take my time, I don't know where "bottom" is but I do know where the support and resistance lines are and with ETF's coming into up to their end of quarter distributions I am watching very closely. Nothing makes me more happier that when I buy an ETF at a good price and pick up a distribution at the same time. 

Sure, we have only just taken out the 5212 support line, the next line is 5120 and it could go lower but I am prepared to take a small risk and pick up a quick distribution and a life long income as well. This weeks deployment will be into a high yield ETF that is managed very well and will be paying approximately 7% in distributions.


----------



## Logique (2 December 2014)

I'm also looking for opportunities in broader markets at present, I don't see anything compelling on the Australian scene.

At present I'm leaning towards international property and international shares, in that order.


----------



## burglar (2 December 2014)

Logique said:


> I'm also looking for opportunities in broader markets at present, I don't see anything compelling on the Australian scene.
> 
> At present I'm leaning towards international property and international shares, in that order.




I was just compelled to throw some capital at AXE: Archer Res.


----------



## Julia (2 December 2014)

Can you say what provoked this compulsion, burglar?   

In a downtrend
Last year av shareholder return -22.8%
No dividend

Hard to see the attraction but you must have some good reason for buying it.  I see there was a presentation on 1 December which I don't have the interest to read in its 15 pages.  Some uber positive announcement there?


----------



## burglar (2 December 2014)

Julia said:


> Can you say what provoked this compulsion, burglar?
> 
> In a downtrend
> Last year av shareholder return -22.8%
> ...




Potential Capital Gain, Julia!







 *Capital Gain on my Previous Trades:

Archer Exp	AXE	23/02/2011	$282.10
Archer Exp	AXE	06/02/2012	$709.16
Archer Exp	AXE	06/11/2012	$426.79
Archer Exp	AXE	18/09/2013	$476.99
Archer Exp	AXE	20/11/2013	$1,014.02
Archer Exp	AXE	22/11/2013	$654.05
Archer Exp	AXE	10/09/2014	$691.26


----------



## Julia (3 December 2014)

Logique said:


> I'm also looking for opportunities in broader markets at present, I don't see anything compelling on the Australian scene.
> 
> At present I'm leaning towards international property and international shares, in that order.



In what form, Logique?  Direct or via a fund?

I'm presently looking at local commercial property.  A large new medical precinct is about half built, large private hospital, nursing home, oncology centre, 20-suite medical offices.  

All this first part of the development is sold and leased, returning net 8%.  Genuine good potential for capital gain.  No tax if bought in SMSF.

A further 30 suite building started which will be similar.  
Growing population, bias to retirees, so huge need for quality private medical services.
The sort of tenants that are unlikely to present the sort of problems that often occur in residential tenancies.


----------



## Logique (4 December 2014)

Julia,
a combination of superannuation elections and managed funds. 

But I must say your direct property net 8% with potential for capital growth, sounds solid. Against that the single asset risk/management risk, and the AUD at USD 0.84  

Global property funds tend to be listed property securities, which worry me by risk profile, but a range of credible fund managers have been achieving consistent returns.


----------



## Julia (4 December 2014)

Logique said:


> But I must say your direct property net 8% with potential for capital growth, sounds solid. Against that the single asset risk/management risk, and the AUD at USD 0.84
> .



The other consideration for me is that the return is little different from high yield stocks which don't have any occupancy considerations, potential body corporate squabbles, and are immediately liquid.
I'll get my lawyer to look at it carefully before going any further.


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## kid hustlr (25 March 2018)

Any interest from the buy and hold investors should we open down 100 points on Monday?

My investment and savings journey is in effect a combination of:

This Thread

and

This Thread

With the market looking a fraction heavy of late I wonder if there are any bargain hunters around or are we expecting a little more pain and everyone is sitting on their hands for now?

I've created this nifty little dot chart to show my ETF purchases (complete buy and hold portfolio) since my journey began. I use this as part of a long term investment budget to ensure that I am consistently meeting benchmarks. In effect, various factors come into play including savings rate, market performance and my trading performance which will impact shorter term capital allocation decisions. So long as I meet my longer term benchmarks I'm on track!

It's been pretty quiet of late but it might be time to turn the dot machine back on!




NB:

I aim for a 50/50 split between Aussie and Overseas (largely USA) shares in my ETF portfolio.


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## tinhat (11 October 2018)

I bought a small parcel of Bluescope Steel (BSL) today. It is one of Lincoln Indicators stock picks and I've been waiting for an entry. I will add more to the position if further value opens up in the share price or I get a signal that upward momentum returns. No debt, underlying strength in the outlook for the industry, although if the macroeconomic environment takes a dip for the worst reward may be require patience.

Please share any other picks for the current pull-back. I don't get the time to review the market very much these days but will certainly be thinking about it this weekend. Like many here I think there may be opportunities opening up. It started with reporting season, shares in decent companies got dumped on any hint of disappointment. Obviously the US monetary situation is seeing money flow back to the US and out of emerging and emerging exposed (commodity based) bourses such as the ASX. Which leaves the little battlers such as me with an opportunity to pick up some value on a depreciated AUD. Other stocks I bought post reporting season are CL1, IRI, SDA and I extended my position on HZN. Lucky for me TPG spiked on take-over news and that allowed me to liquidate a fair whack into cash to deploy elsewhere.


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## explod (11 October 2018)

I purchased 4 kilos of pre 46 coins today, forgot about everything else but I'm getting old of course.  My dealer was inundated, lol, others follow markets also.

Party mode could be bad though, too happy, too induced, sucked in, drunk or lost virginity (don't tell Dad) and/or the plot.

So do not follow me


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## tinhat (11 October 2018)

explod said:


> I purchased 4 kilos of pre 46 coins today, forgot about everything else but I'm getting old of course.  My dealer was inundated, lol, others follow markets also.
> 
> Party mode could be bad though, too happy, too induced, sucked in, drunk or lost virginity (don't tell Dad) and/or the plot.
> 
> So do not follow me




Coke?


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## tinhat (25 October 2018)

What a great day to be buying shares! I bought BSL and NAB soon after the open.


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## Knobby22 (25 October 2018)

Braver than me.


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## tinhat (25 October 2018)

Just bought some more NAB. No more money to deploy!


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## Knobby22 (25 October 2018)

tinhat said:


> Just bought some more NAB. No more money to deploy!



Bought some MOC shares today for $1.22 that I had sold at $2.00 some time ago.
After seeing the major shareholder buying recently and liking the CEOs report  I thought I might see if I can get them cheap. I set the price really low a couple of days ago and it tripped.


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## aus_trader (25 October 2018)

tinhat said:


> Just bought some more NAB. No more money to deploy!



As Knobby22 said, pretty brave. I've been selling down stocks in my portfolios today and still moving orders around to get filled with the sells...


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## So_Cynical (25 October 2018)

Could be a few more great days to come - ill wait.


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## tinhat (6 August 2019)

Who's buying today? I've had some conditional orders triggered and orders in the market filled so far today in NAN, NEA and IGO. whoo-hoo.


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## sptrawler (6 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> Who's buying today? I've had some conditional orders triggered and orders in the market filled so far today in NAN, NEA and IGO. whoo-hoo.



Definitely some good buying, but IMO be selective, I can't see Trump putting his tail between his legs and folding.
So this could easily escalate, or at best take a few days to settle, but definitely opportunity presents.
Just my opinion.


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## tinhat (9 August 2019)

The beginning of the week was a great time to deploy capital. Here's how it panned out for me (paper return on stocks bought at the beginning of the week):

AB1, flat.
BSL, 1.8%
IGO, 14.4%
NAN, 9.6% *
NEA, 9.8%
VMT, 8.7%

These are paper profits which the market may take away at any time.

* Except for NAN, which I sold down a bit today because I had over-allocated capital into it because I averaged down earlier in the week as it kept dropping and hitting my staggered buy orders.

NAN and NEA are high conviction stocks which I hope to hold long term and which have a higher capital allocation.

PS. Some of these positions may have been opened up at the end of last week, but added to this week.


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## So_Cynical (2 March 2020)

Time to bring this classic thread back to life.

I bought a few today, everything is cheaper than it was this time last week, my brokerage account cash balance is $23


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## basilio (2 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Time to bring this classic thread back to life.
> 
> I bought a few today, everything is cheaper than it was this time last week, my brokerage account cash balance is $23




Courageous decision...

Indeed they are cheaper. How much more damage we might see as the corona virus unwinds is the" big question" isn't it ?


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## Smurf1976 (2 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> my brokerage account cash balance is $23



Should have bought a few more shares then.

Well, assuming you're buying something worth less than $23 per share.


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## So_Cynical (2 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Courageous decision...
> 
> Indeed they are cheaper. How much more damage we might see as the corona virus unwinds is the" big question" isn't it ?




It's always the question - how much lower, wheres the bottom.

I dont think its that courageous, i buy what looks cheap and or outstanding, always have done.


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## ducati916 (3 March 2020)

You would need to consider the valuation of the sector that you were buying. A previously overvalued sector may not have corrected enough, while an already undervalued sector could be close(r) to a bottom.

In the US, if a recession eventuates (currently 40% estimate) then a profit contraction of 25% could see a PE contraction of 5. That would equate to another 750pts off of the S&P500.

If you traded the 2000/2003, there were several false bounces. In 2008/2009, there were a couple.

Generally speaking, markets (stock) recover when the solution to the problem (panic) is found, or thought to be found. As has been pointed out on other threads, this is a medical issue, not a financial issue, although, that could change as the medical issue creates and morphs into a financial one.

Bounces are often caused by short covering (profit taking). For the last few years also, we have been conditioned to 'buy the dip'. That may not (if a recession is created by this) be the correct response at this time.

jog on
duc


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## So_Cynical (3 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Generally speaking, markets (stock) recover when the solution to the problem (panic) is found, or thought to be found. As has been pointed out on other threads, this is a medical issue, not a financial issue, although, that could change as the medical issue creates and morphs into a financial one.




Its a financial problem caused by a medical problem, meanwhile Goldman have updated their global economic growth forecast and reckon that we are in for 2 quarters of negative global growth - a global recession. And of course we can expect the reserve banks of the world to throw money at the problem, interest rates at zero and cash splashes of all sorts, the world is not ending.


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## moXJO (3 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Its a financial problem caused by a medical problem, meanwhile Goldman have updated their global economic growth forecast and reckon that we are in for 2 quarters of negative global growth - a global recession. And of course we can expect the reserve banks of the world to throw money at the problem, interest rates at zero and cash splashes of all sorts, the world is not ending.



This is my thinking. 
Stimulus and money falling from the sky.


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## basilio (3 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> This is my thinking.
> Stimulus and money falling from the sky.




I keep wondering about  who is throwing what money to whom ?
It seems as if Central banks are  going to splash huge sums to banks/financial institutions  which end up being used to keep the banks solvent and stocks markets fed by more speculation.  Whose interests are served here ?
Meanwhile workers go broke, small business falls over.

If one was trying to keep people and businesses and banks  solvent why not simply deposit funds into peoples accounts who were being laid off ?  They go on paying their rent, their loans and buying stuff like before.  

Governments have generally called this unemployment benefits but frankly that won't work in 2020. Benefits are too low and won't be sufficient to keep a new swarm of people from going bankrupt and causing big ripple effects.

This may sound crazy but it would be interesting to see what type of helicopter money is being considered and where it is going. But I'm not holding my breath on a more direct approach.


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## So_Cynical (4 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> I bought a few today, everything is cheaper than it was this time last week, my brokerage account cash balance is $23




Well everything i bought has gone up so for the time being at least it was a great day to deploy capital.


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## qldfrog (4 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Well everything i bought has gone up so for the time being at least it was a great day to deploy capital.



Until today unless you invested in the TPI.. toilet paper index


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## tinhat (7 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Well everything i bought has gone up so for the time being at least it was a great day to deploy capital.



Let's see how smarmy you are in a few weeks time.


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## peter2 (21 September 2021)

The day after a 165pt (-2.1%) down day in the XAO. 

The thread title says it all if you've some cash and you think it's a buy the dip market. 
I've bought some *CCP, WES, IVC* as staples. Splashed a little more in *ABR, EML, ARU, ESR, IMD, SES*. 
There were lots of cheaper prices but I couldn't grab them all. eg *DDR* at 12.50 (bargain). 

If the US market rallies a bit today/tonight I'll resume buying my 1st BBs. There should be lots of pull-back opps.


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## aus_trader (21 September 2021)

peter2 said:


> The day after a 165pt (-2.1%) down day in the XAO.
> 
> The thread title says it all if you've some cash and you think it's a buy the dip market.
> I've bought some *CCP, WES, IVC* as staples. Splashed a little more in *ABR, EML, ARU, ESR, IMD, SES*.
> ...



So is CCP, WES and IVC with a longer term view when you say staples ?

I think the rest are trades from what I've been following in portfolio threads.


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## peter2 (21 September 2021)

Yes, these and a few others I have in mind are part of a large cap allocation. All I expect to earn from them is ~10% pa. If the market dips lower (and it might as Sept is not done yet) I'll add to these positions. 

The others are trades I'm currently in and I see no reason to sell them. So I'll buy more at today's lower prices. 

The market is down because it's Sept and it seasonally weak, it's a self fulfilling aim this time each year, delta virus concerns on the economy, iron ore down from record prices, good time of year for a pull-back in the rallying commodity prices, etc select any other reason. Oh there's Evergrande, that will be a local problem and the overseas bond holders will get nothing.


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## divs4ever (21 September 2021)

that was yesterday  for me 

 added extra FMG , EVN and RRL yesterday  , only some extra CMW today , so far


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## systematic (21 September 2021)

Trouble is, I never have any capital to deploy. I made the decision a long time ago, based on the best research I could do at the time, to be fully invested all of the time. Nothing I've seen (or personally researched) has changed my mind.
Being in and out of the market only reduces volatility / fluctuations as far as I can get it to work.


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## Sean K (21 September 2021)

systematic said:


> Trouble is, I never have any capital to deploy. I made the decision a long time ago, based on the best research I could do at the time, to be fully invested all of the time. Nothing I've seen (or personally researched) has changed my mind.
> Being in and out of the market only reduces volatility / fluctuations as far as I can get it to work.




I think that depends on if you're an investor or trader, or combo weighted one way or the other. Sounds like you're a time-in not timing guy. Full time investors are probably trading to some extent to take advantage of opportunities.


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## divs4ever (21 September 2021)

fate has a different path to me  , between dividends coming back to the bank account  , shares that i feel prudent to sell ( like AMP in the later part of 2018 ) and successful take-overs ( currently SKI , AST , API  and YFZ look likely  while WSA still has some  details to reveal )

 so sometimes the difficult part is wisely deploying that cash 

 good luck


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## againsthegrain (21 September 2021)

Liquidated my mcr yesterday, come Friday see if it was the right decision. Hopefully this cat falls flat by then and either buy back cheaper in mcr or pick up fmg below 14 fingers cross, but most likely sit on the side.  Whatever u do stick to your game plan


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## peter2 (26 January 2022)

I've started buying US. 
*SOXL* - Semiconductor Bull 3x shares (ETF) (@*40*)
*FAS* - Financials Bull 3x shares (ETF).  (@*111*)
*COPX* - Copper Miners ETF (@*37.50*)
*UNG* - Natural Gas ETF (@ *13.00*)

*LIT* - not ready yet
*URA* - not ready yet.

Will be looking to add quickly in one or two more days if prices confirm yesterday's low.


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> I've started buying US.



Interested in how you're seeing that going forward?

That is, you're buying with the intention that it's a reasonably short term trade?

Or you're thinking this is a good entry point for the long term?

My own view is that we're due a tradeable bounce but I'm not at all convinced that there won't be a better buying opportunity for long term investors at some future time. Anything I buy will be with the intention of selling after a rally, not as a "forever" investment.

Noting that my definition of "short term" is imprecise but I mean weeks or months not years.

My reasoning being that this correction simply has too many people trying to call both the top and the bottom - everyone from random YouTubers to the mainstream media to professionals seems to be having a go. Versus real long term major tops and bottoms, the kind not exceeded in their respective direction for years (or never in the case of most bottoms), generally involve the masses having given up on the opposite case entirely such that only a few are paying attention to the prospect of a major top or bottom being at hand.

Very interested in hearing arguments to the contrary if you or anyone's seeing this as a good point to invest for the long term. As always, I could well be wrong.


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## Knobby22 (26 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Interested in how you're seeing that going forward?
> 
> That is, you're buying with the intention that it's a reasonably short term trade?
> 
> ...



If this is a classic correction then we have further to fall.


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## charlsie (26 January 2022)

Last Friday was the 1st day in a very very long time that EVERY stock i hold in my portfolio was in the red. 
        I'm sure most people know of the boiling frog analogy.
For me, the frog has just been put in the pot, and if i was the frog, I'd jump out now.
Where as, in the past, I have stayed in the pot to be boiled. Not this time!
On monday morning, I sold out of (or scaled down) every position that wouldn't attract the full capital gains tax.
 To refresh everyone of my history.... I've been trading 25ish years on and off. 
2012, Marriage breakdown left me with $180K in cash/stocks. (my house deposit and i want to pay cash for a house)
2012-2018 didn't trust myself to trade rationally
2019 started following the market and small dabbles to get myself up to speed and gain confidence.
March 2020 got smashed down to $120k cash/stocks. I'd been buying ADN in 100K parcels.
I sold my 1000 BHP to buy more ADN (best buy was .025c) and have a buffer to pay rent if my work closed down (remember no one knew what was happening)
Early 2021 As ADN was approaching .40c I started selling down (mostly around .30c)and bought into MCR all the way up to $1.25 (bulk at .70c) Late December 2021 sold 1/2 my MCR
I now have almost half of what i have in cash.
I fully believe we are at the start of a slow boiling frog event, in that at the end of the year with 20/20 hindsight we will say "oh yeah, i can see that now" about how much the market has dropped.
I have no way of proving my theory/thoughts. though I do believe picking up good solid profitable companies is the order of the day in the months coming. I am too old (54) to believe what some say "No just wait, the market will come back" meanwhile, my house deposit languishes at the depths of a market correction. Bugger that!
And the beauty of it all.......if I'm wrong and interest rates don't go up and the market turns around and tells me to start buying again, well it just means that i have lost some upside to an amount of time my capital hasn't been in the market (so what. I've preserved it).
If you look at the one year charts on IXR and AVL, they will explain why I'm happy to have got out early in the week. 
Anyway these are my thoughts and good luck trading/investing to you all


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## peter2 (26 January 2022)

I'm trading this as a quick short term opportunity, similar to a bear market rally. The downward momentum looks like it's pausing, this should stimulate an oversold bounce. If we see this bounce in the ASX I'll be selling the leftovers at the slightly higher prices. 

The market participants need to take a break in order to settle down. I'm not expecting a rally back to the highs. I'm anticipating a tough (volatile) slow grind sideways for a while (six months). I'm thinking of the classic Wyckoff accumulation pattern with the ABCDE phases and multiple retests of the low. 



We're in Phase A waiting for the AR (automatic oversold reaction).


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## frugal.rock (26 January 2022)

Indexes, Commodities, Crypto and big US tech all currently solidly in the green, either currently trading or pre market.
Perhaps more important, CBOE on the way down.
This public holiday appears to be saving some tail... for now.


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## divs4ever (26 January 2022)

sorry i will be staying careful ,  would love to see if there was a US Treasury Bond Auction during all this 

 that would explain a lot ( to me )


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## Sean K (26 April 2022)

I'm a bear, but when you see so much blood on the streets, I can't resist.


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## charlsie (26 April 2022)

Sean K said:


> I'm a bear, but when you see so much blood on the streets, I can't resist.



I'm trying to work out where to put some money myself


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## divs4ever (26 April 2022)

i narrowly missed extra KGN  ( so wound the bid down 5c lower , in case the slide continued )

 topped up on CUP ( a long term play )

 and missed orders elsewhere  , and as an another inconvenience had to  go out 15 minutes after the open

 but yes that is the hard bit about dip buying  is  how much and where

 good practice even if you miss every target

 good luck everyone


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## Dona Ferentes (26 April 2022)

Sean K said:


> I'm a bear, but when you see so much blood on the streets, I can't resist.



short term only, I hope.


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## divs4ever (26 April 2022)

doesn't matter so much if chasing divs ( and no leverage )

 but USUALLY there will be enough bounces to keep the trading folk happy  as well


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