# BSL - Bluescope Steel



## JetDollars (8 July 2004)

Hi Forumers,

What do you guys think of Bluescope Steel.

From a technical point of view it's just broken through the resistance line recently.

Any input will be appreciated.


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## still_in_school (9 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Hi Jetdollars,

the stock, seems to be on a buy and hold for the medium term and medium risk, technically this stock has been on an uptrend since it first floated... in my idea, its a good stock to jump on and ride the bandwagon...

Cheers,
sis


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## JetDollars (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Thanks Still In School....Keep learning


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## still_in_school (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

... there seems to be some heavy volume being traded between both buyers and sellers...

a large number of buyers are wanting to buy the share down at 6.75, while there is a large number of sellers wanting to sell b/w 6.85 and 6.90

interesting to see how this share will closes up for today...

Cheers,
sis


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## JetDollars (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

I purchased BSL a few days ago in my ASX Sharemarket Game.

Go the good thing....BSL


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## still_in_school (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

BSL Chart - OHLC


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## JetDollars (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Well an uptrend still presenting, so holding on to it seem like a good idea.

I will come back and check it out in 2 weeks time...LOL


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## still_in_school (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

interesting to see it trade down to a low of $6.77 and still manage to close at $6.88... with this one... im not actively trading it... just gonna let the profits run... as its a definite hold... for the medium term...

Cheers,
sis


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## Joe Blow (10 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*



> BSL Chart - OHLC





Nice chart!

Gonna take a closer look at this one. It's got a nice uptrend happening!

 8)


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## Aceyducey (11 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Got a Strong rating from StockDoctor on the fundamentals as well.

Cheers,

Aceyducey


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## still_in_school (11 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

even looking at ANZ and BT, they are happy to do a 70% Margin Lend against it...

Cheers,
sis


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## JetDollars (12 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

I think I am going to buy more BSL in ASX Sharemarket Game on Monday...LOL


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## still_in_school (12 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

lol... remember Jet$, only invest 10-20% into 1 stock... very hard to be discipline some time... 

lol.. trust me, i want to break the rules...

Cheers,
sis


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## JetDollars (12 July 2004)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

SIS,

The ASX Sharemarket Game's rule state that:

You only allow to buy 25% of your allocated funds ie. $12,500. for this matter.

I think I got about $7000 with BSL at the moment. So I still able to purchase more if I want too.


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## RichKid (4 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Thought I'd revive this thread since we really should be following a runner like Bluescope Steel more closely imo. The trend is your friend.

Breakouts around 8.50 and 9. If the past is anything to go by this ones going to run for a few more months before correcting (if at all).

Here's a chart for BSL, currently at $9.53, chart ends on 3Feb05. I hold via warrants.


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## dutchie (4 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Hi RichKid

I agree, imo it still has plenty of upward movement - especially longterm.

Attractive forecast yield should keep it bullish.

(Happy to get in @922)

Do not take this as advice in any way - I am a amateur


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## JetDollars (5 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

well resources boom will help BSL trending up for a while....so I believe it is a good buy.


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## phoenixrising (6 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Also nicely placed in the China boom.


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## RichKid (7 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

The breakout is continuing strongly, looks like it's gapping, but we'll have to see how this turns out. Volume is firm as well but nothing extraordinary, tends to be steady in steep uptrends for BSL. This may be the last major earnings upgrade season so BSL seems to be making the best of it. Maybe another 2 to 3 months left for this latest run.


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## RichKid (9 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

A minor correction today, some profit taking? Trend probably got ahead of itself. Still above supporting trend line so should be ok, typical for BSL judging by last few runs. Div not far away now and profit annoucement even sooner. Let's see if they surprise.


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## RichKid (12 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Read in the FinReview about rumours of takeover of SSX (Smorgon Steel- not doing as well as BSL and OST due to tighter margins), one of the majors was tipped, might have accounted for the dip in BSL, but also noted that many bluechip holders would have switched to the banks after the CBA result, should be switching back to BSL, OST etc again. Strong recovery on Friday for BSL, let's see if it continues.


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## RichKid (20 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Anyone keeping a close eye on Monday's profit annct? Is it to be expected at 8.30am as with AMP last week or do they release it later on in the morning, I don't usually follow profit anncts this closely but with the steep uptrend and reserve bank interest rate hike expected I'm wondering if it'll be a volatile day for BSL as the markets may go down for profit taking. BSL is also near psychological resistance at $10. I'm bullish on BSL longterm but I'm a bit cautious about tomorrow, should be good though.


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## RichKid (21 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Profit annct, appears to be as expected, no nasty surprises but there is a bit of bad news (mainly local market oriented), as expected. Share buybacks by tender sometimes slow the momentum down, have to see what happens now. http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...les-net-profits/2005/02/21/1108834692480.html


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## Chief Wigam (22 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Technically BSL still looks good.


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## RichKid (23 February 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

A bit of a fall today, profit taking? Or the news of iron ore price hikes? Still above recent steep trendline. Looks like it'll continue to fall tomorrow judging by close and depth.


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## RichKid (7 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

BSL a bit of a hiccup recently. Looks like either a complex head and shoulders reversal pattern (neckline c. 9.25) or a diamond reversal/continuation pattern. If it reverses it'll hit $9 pretty quick and I measure $8.50 as the next stop- but that's just the TA theory. General trend is still up. So difficult with these sometime, let's look for some direction this week as prices don't tighten for long in this stock.


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## DTM (8 March 2005)

*Re: PBL - Ready to go up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> I've been following BSL recently, not in it atm since I'm not sure of the direction. It's gone ex-div but some people will hold due to the 45 day rule, capital buy back still happening. Current formation was looking a bit toppish to me, might just be consolidation though, I expect an annct re price rise/surcharges for products before long. BSL may revert to a lower trajectory, which is why I'm not sure of BSL so far. Have to admit it really moves when it gets going. Will post a chart soon in the BSL thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8284#post8284  I'll probably enter via warrants.




BSL was down 20 cents today @ $9.25 which could be the bottom.  Tomorrow will confirm this if the price goes back up.


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## RichKid (8 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Bounced off 9.25c today, I picked that as the neckline but on a closer look at the chart it's a thick neckline! So until it falls through 9.20 I'd say this one will hold. So revised neckline imo is 9.20-9.25c from where I've drawn it. Volume is poor so far today. Any other views?


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## DTM (8 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Bounced off 9.25c today, I picked that as the neckline but on a closer look at the chart it's a thick neckline! So until it falls through 9.20 I'd say this one will hold. So revised neckline imo is 9.20-9.25c from where I've drawn it. Volume is poor so far today. Any other views?




I think that this is a positive move for BSL and can only see it going up from today.  I bought in with call options today so will wait to see what happens.


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## RichKid (8 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

I think you may be right DTM about BSL bouncing, especially if this is a diamond continuation, but if it's not then just as much downside, next stop $9 in that case. I'm not quite sure so I'm out for the moment till things clarify. BSL currently climbing to 9.34. This week will be interesting.


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## DTM (8 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Looks like BSL is looking to break out tomorrow.  Hope I'm right, we'll see tomorrow.    

I could also be wrong so don't take this as advice.


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## RichKid (12 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Looking a bit uncertain for BSL, I'm very cautious now as it's looking to test that solid (apparent) support at $9 and appears to have broken that 9.20/25 area. Maybe ppl are waiting on an annct of some sort? Any rumours?


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## DTM (14 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

And at last the much awaited turnaround.  Up 42 cents at the moment and hopefully will carry on past today.

  :jump: 

You're right Rich, when it moves it moves...


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## RichKid (18 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Funny day for BSL, see the intraday. Steadily moving towards support at $9, will it bounce or pierce? I expect a bounce at first. Some brokers are shorting this (ie sp valuation) to $8.50 but views are varied. I think they're trying to influence the market so they can buy BSL cheap with some of that spare cash they've got from dividends etc. Still a great medium to longterm prospect imo.

First chart: Intermediate top in short term downtrend?? Just an intraday so won't read too much into it.

(next chart is longterm- looks like complex head and shoulders, downward sloping neckline, next stop 8.50 if it falls. If a brief jump up next week then gap at around 9.25 should be filled in a day.


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## DTM (18 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Hi Rich,

I'm bullish on them as well.  I bought some call options on them yesterday and expect to hold until Tuesday.


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## RichKid (21 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Appears to be following that down sloping neckline, crucial issue is it's below horizontal support/resistance at $9. BSL always jumps around so let's see where it's going. Below I see 8.60 and then 8.50.  I see the big boys jumping in if it goes below 8.50, I wont be surprised if they turn their analyst reports around all of a sudden to Buy Buy Buy, but not yet, and tomorrow is another day....


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## el_ninj0 (21 March 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

Why didn't BSL go up more during the peak periods of September - January for most metals stocks?

After all, I would think the demand for steel into china would have been huge at that time, and even bigger now.


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## Investor (20 April 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

I bought some BSL shares some time ago before the price rise. 

Recent share price weakness appears to stem from significantly increased iron ore prices, leading to rise in COGS for BSL; uncertainty about the direction of the global economy (economic slowdown will reduce usage of steel products) and rise in supply of steel companies in China.

Bought more shares in BSL on Monday at $7.96. The P/E ratio is relatively low, but this reflects the high risk industry sector that BSL is in.


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## mime (20 April 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

I think it's a good buy. But I rather buy cheaper stocks.


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## Investor (20 April 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

In the latest aireview no. 55, just released, JP Morgan has a buy recommendation on BSL, citing a P/E of 5.1 for FY 05 and 6.2 FY 06.

Irregardless, the critical aspect for expectations of share price, is the global supply and demand equation. Supply of steel is increasing rapidly in China, but if demand can rise fast enough, then BSL is currently "value buying". Conversely, if demand cannot keep up with supply, BSL could be trading at fair value. Clearly, any prospective buyer of BSL shares needs to analyse the situation and form an opinion, but bear in mind that this is relatively high risk investment.

To me, BSL has good brands (colorbond and zincalume) which provide an element of product differentiation. BSL's strategy with expansion into Asia, with a gradual incremental approach, rather than lump sum critical mass, appears sound.

The relatively low P/E makes BSL an acceptable risk/return proposition for me, but not too large an allocation in the portfolio.


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## GreatPig (19 May 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

BSL on its way up again?

A decent break above $8 might see me in again.

Cheers,
GP


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## Investor (19 May 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!*

A $200 million on-market buyback has been taking place.

Merrills is recommending investors buy BlueScope Steel (BSL) for recovery in HRC prices and organic Asian growth.

The analysts believe their forecast return to positive news flow in the global perspective will specifically benefit producers of flat product. All of BlueScope’s hot metal output is flat product.

The analysts expect BlueScope’s earnings growth and share price performance over the next 6-12 months to be driven by China’s deficit of 
flat product and “higher for longer” HRC prices.

The rollout of the downstream growth strategy also appears to be accelerating, which will improve the stock’s long term value.

Moreover, Merrills sees BlueScope as the company most likely to be acquired by one of the global majors. Not surprisingly, the company represents Merrills preferred steel exposure.


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## Julia (5 July 2005)

*Bluescope Steel*

Would be interested to hear from anyone holding BSL re thoughts about the future.  Recent comments have been fairly negative re steel prices having definiely peaked.  Are you holding or selling?

Julia


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## excalibur (6 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Would be interested to hear from anyone holding BSL re thoughts about the future.  Recent comments have been fairly negative re steel prices having definiely peaked.  Are you holding or selling?
> 
> Julia




Hi Julia,

It has been speculated in Europe that the price of steel should  still sink a bit. Many companies existing storage is filled up, lowering the request and consequentially the price will still fall. I have already sold similar stocks like Thyssen-Krupp in Germany...and was right.
I am not going to give you any advice because I am not allowed to.
If you have lost confidence in the stock then you must be consequent.
Cheers


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## DTM (6 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel*



			
				excalibur said:
			
		

> Hi Julia,
> 
> It has been speculated in Europe that the price of steel should  still sink a bit. Many companies existing storage is filled up, lowering the request and consequentially the price will still fall. I have already sold similar stocks like Thyssen-Krupp in Germany...and was right.
> I am not going to give you any advice because I am not allowed to.
> ...




I agree with you.  BSL has been on my radar as one to fall.


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## RichKid (7 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Recent article on the topic, not sure how much BSL is exposed to weakening markets.


> *Steel Prices Under Severe Pressure*
> July 05 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
> 
> The latest information from steel researcher MEPS indicates a torrid time for steel prices. In the flat products category, substantial price cuts were put in place for June in China and Japan for all strip mill products, and values are under severe negative pressure in South Korea and Taiwan, MEPS reports.
> ...


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## Dan_ (18 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Has anyone been watching this stock lately?

slowly working it's way up and up and i don't understand why? Anyone care to provide their thoughts?

Sorry I would post a chart but yet to figure it out


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## dutchie (18 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I think it was bagged previously because of the lower price of steel. Then it was mentioned that it still had a good cashflow and I would assume it was underpriced.
(Could find resistance at 8.86)


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## Julia (18 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Macquarie have today rated BSL as "Outperform" with a target price of $10.50.


Julia


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## Battman64 (18 July 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

This stock is looking like a short at $9.10
Already had seven days up.
Overbought at present.
I have been wrong many times


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## markrmau (3 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I shorted today at 9.38

Anyone else short? Tight stops on this one though.


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## excalibur (3 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I haven`t any stocks but I think that was a wise decision.
Keep an eye on it although, the steel industry has been a bit too quiet in the past few months. I might jump in as soon as she drops to 8.


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## markrmau (5 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Interesting. Normally, when you put a trade into the cfd provider to buy / sell, the hedging order appears in the depth.

However, when I put my cover buy order in for BSL, no such order appears.

Maybe the hedging partner doesn't want the BSL shares back?


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## mit (5 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

They could have matched the order internally. Obviously not CMC I've never seen my order go into the depth. Unless it is because I am such a small player  :  


Hope you are all wrong as I am long BSL at the moment.  It's getting close to announcement time, so it could go either way depending on performance against expectations.
MIT


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## DTM (5 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				mit said:
			
		

> Hope you are all wrong as I am long BSL at the moment.  It's getting close to announcement time, so it could go either way depending on performance against expectations.
> MIT




There's been too much strong buying in the last few weeks to make me think that people are buying it for the sake of it.  I'm sure someone knows what the real story is.

Tipping that it could be a bumper year.


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## markrmau (6 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Pretty strong reversal today. Still below my sell price, but will cover Monday.


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## JeffB (9 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

No comments on this thread lately, are we still bullish on BSL ? - last sale 9.46. Alot of deals being made in China and BHP is channeling all it's steel requirements their way (obviously).


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## mit (9 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

9.47 now. I'm long but this is from running a mechanical trading system rather than for any other tangible reason.

Seems to be bouncing around in a 30c range over the last week or so. People might be waiting for the profit announcement which should be around the 23rd or this month before it breaks out of this range. Today is the highest over this period but it is not really a decisive break yet.

MIT


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## Julia (17 August 2005)

*BSL    Bluescope Steel*

Does anyone have any comments where BSL is going following recent gains?
Broker today suggested that it would be fully valued at $10.00.

Julia


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## GreatPig (17 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

No idea, but $10 is around it's all-time high back in February.

Cheers,
GP


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## Chief Wigam (23 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Closing in on it's all time high of 10.29. Wish I held more than I have. Possibly the ADX is indicating look out for a trend change. It might go sideways soon. But up a little longer first I suspect.


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## mit (23 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Market didn't take the profit announcement too well though.

MIT


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## Chief Wigam (24 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Yeh, OK it may start a sideways pattern now then.


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## TjamesX (24 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Slaughtered on the day it reports the largest profit on record - 70% or so larger than last years profit, all because forecast for next year is not as good..... well the market reaction did make me sit up and notice.


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## mit (24 August 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I haven't hit my stops yet.  Hopefully just an over-reaction. On my experience these things last 1-3 days and start recovering, unless the market has really gone off the company. Unfortunately I got caught both ways. I was going to buy Seven on Monday but didn't get to the market before 4:05 (Closed at 8.08). Pulled my order yesterday because I thought it would drop due to the announcement. It opened at 8:10 to close at 8:41! Some weeks it just doesn't pay to get out of bed.

MIT


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## Dan_ (26 September 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Closed back through the $10.00 barrier today after a $0.30 rise on no news. Any thoughts to why the jump in price? Also any chartists want to offer some thoughts?

I currently hold


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## Julia (26 September 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				Dan_ said:
			
		

> Closed back through the $10.00 barrier today after a $0.30 rise on no news. Any thoughts to why the jump in price? Also any chartists want to offer some thoughts?
> 
> I currently hold



Dan,

The increase today seems relative to the overall increase in the market.

About two  or three weeks ago, a couple of analysts suggested BSL would be fully valued at $10.00.  Looks like they could be wrong (again!).


Julia


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## RodC (27 September 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Could be a bit of a run-up to the dividend as well.

BSL goes ex dividend tomorrow.

Rod.


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## rozella (27 September 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I think you are right RodC, its a big dividend (44.0/share fully franked) for a $10 stock.

rozella


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## RodC (27 September 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I Sold BSL today.

I only bought these as a dividend trade and I've managed to make 49c (gross) so I didn't think it was worth staying in for the dividend.

Rod.


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## RichKid (20 October 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Looking like one sick little duck. OST seems to be the favoured rival atm.


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## Julia (31 October 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I've been coming across more and more reports that China's steel production is outstripping demand, even given their buoyant building boom.

Are there some forum members who could make a comment on how this, if correct, will affect Bluescope?

Ditto Sims, though clearly to a lesser degree.

Sorry, Joe, Rich and Wayne"  I guess I should have put this last on the SMS thread.

Julia


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## wayneL (1 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> I've been coming across more and more reports that China's steel production is outstripping demand, even given their buoyant building boom.
> 
> Are there some forum members who could make a comment on how this, if correct, will affect Bluescope?
> 
> ...




This ties in with what I was told about ships full of ore, sitting at the docks not being unloaded.

The story was that there was LC (letter of credit) problems, but this could be a factor also...or a symptom?


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## RichKid (1 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Maybe we should open a thread on steel and global demand.... there are lots of different types of products out there and that will to a certain degree affect BSL. I'll try to dig up some broker summaries or reports on BSL and their particular products and markets. It's easier for me to go off charts as I don't know how reliable all these rumours and figures are and I'm no expert in steel.


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## RichKid (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Here's a start on steel products and some views on why some steel co's should do better than others. Go to aireview.com  and do some searches on 'hot rolled coil', 'steel market', 'long product' etc for info to make your head whiz!



> CHINA ABOUT TO SPOIL BLUESCOPE’S PARTY?
> www.aireview.com issue 82 27Oct05
> 
> Industry watchers at Steel Business Briefi ng (SBB) are not the most optimistic fellows around, especially when it comes to gauging China’s impact on Asian steel prices.
> ...


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## Aussiejeff (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Yikes! BSL down 18% on open to $7.37....

I do not hold....

AJ


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## GreatPig (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I was considering holding, but not right now thanks 

GP


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## happytrader (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Looks like we've got the range for the month on this stock.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## Yippyio (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Ask yourself why would the Chinese buy steel from BSL ???

BSL export aspirations are doomed if they think that they can produce in Australia and export, in competition to the Chinese.

A more realistic situation is China buying raw materials i.e. Iron Ore from Australia but certainly not the finished product.

BHP knew this a long time ago which is why they spun off their steel making business into a seperate entity and called it Bluescope. It was apparent a long time ago that BHP could not be competative as a steel producer and nor can BSL. 

BSL will need to do two things, set up shop in China and export from China (very risky) or satisfy itself that it can achieve enough growth through it's domestic market, here in Australia.


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## happytrader (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Agree Yippo

They've just discounted the price today to reflect all this and now they're buying back in at these more realistic prices. They want you to think doom. Remember the emotions causing a person to sell are stronger than the emotion to buy. 

Cheers
Happytrader


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## Julia (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I'm happy to say that I sold yesterday at $8.65.  Have just felt for a while that the negatives for BSL have been increasing.



Julia


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## Chief Wigam (4 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I am not sure why you say it is too risky to set up shop in China. A lot of companies are doing it sucessfully. General Electric has gone in big time as one example.

Also in my line of work (we are an engineering co. that manufacture equipment, including from our China base and therefore buy steel) I have noted that local Chinese steel is not that much cheaper than imported steel.


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## GreatPig (5 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> I'm happy to say that I sold yesterday at $8.65



Excellent timing, Julia 

I was watching the price turn back up and was considering buying back in for a short-term rise. After Thursday's step up, I was set to buy back in on Friday - until I saw the price that morning.

Just as well there's wasn't another up-day before the drop, or I would likely have been holding.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (5 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Excellent timing, Julia
> 
> I was watching the price turn back up and was considering buying back in for a short-term rise. After Thursday's step up, I was set to buy back in on Friday - until I saw the price that morning.
> 
> ...




This makes OST all the more attractive and maybe SSX. Hate to be a bottom picker atm.


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## TheAnalyst (17 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Anyone got anymore news on the Bluescope story as i have gone long with a call warrant as of monday and plan to sit there for  a while.


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## Kauri (17 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Anyone got anymore news on the Bluescope story as i have gone long with a call warrant as of monday and plan to sit there for a while.



   Hi The Analyst
   According to my _weekly_ charts of BSL it looks like a likely place to bounce up, another good call...


----------



## TheAnalyst (17 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi The Analyst
> According to my _weekly_ charts of BSL it looks like a likely place to bounce up, another good call...




Do you want to know how i call em with out charts?


----------



## Kauri (17 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Do you want to know how i call em with out charts?




   The Analyst..
                    If you want to share how you do it I would be grateful. I am always ready to learn,


----------



## TjamesX (17 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

I don't know a lot about the BSL story, but I did note they got pounded when they revised earnings down to 85c per share?

Currently trading around $7.40

Thats a PE of 9.

Average PE for aussie market about 15, US more.

Fundamentally thats cheap, or there is some other reason why the market has reacted that way...ie market thinks earning will fall further in future?

either way a lot of negativity priced in which may or may not eventuate.


----------



## TheAnalyst (17 November 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> I don't know a lot about the BSL story, but I did note they got pounded when they revised earnings down to 85c per share?
> 
> Currently trading around $7.40
> 
> ...




The earnings down grade has been projected between 85 cents and $1 per share at $7.40 thats a P/E of 8.7($7.40/0.85 cents=8.71) or at a $1 on $7.40 a P/E of 7.4%($7.40/$1=7.4). In the address to the market the director wasnt really sure that it would eventuate but was cautious.

On top of this is the share buy back which will increase the earnings per share as there will then be less shares on issue, therefore a lower P/E leading to another ajustment most likely to a higher share price.

Here we establish a fundamental trading range and from here we are then able to measure the volitility of a stock and put in a time span to get a number of periods and therefore we get a standard deviation and its implied volatility.

Heres a hint how i do it Kauri but dont worry the fundmanagers and there traders wont care that i share it becuase when they write various financial instruments they are for hedging they dont lose either way. They are risk managment tools to them and trading instruments to us as they use the bionomial tree with the black scholes method so there trades will not lose which way the stock actually goes.

I do look at charts as i once was a chartist but they are not the whole picture as i think they are visualisation tools but good for stocks that are moving fast and have no earnings.


----------



## Kipp (2 December 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

BSL down to $7.11 today and I just can't see why it fails to recover, even when there has been a series of positive company announcements.

As the analyst said previously, even when you use the corrected P/E ratio ~7-9 it still is trading well below it's competitors, Onesteel and Smorgon (both P/E's of about 15).
Any ideas on why the market is being so unkind to BSL?


----------



## Kauri (2 December 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> BSL down to $7.11 today and I just can't see why it fails to recover, even when there has been a series of positive company announcements.
> 
> As the analyst said previously, even when you use the corrected P/E ratio ~7-9 it still is trading well below it's competitors, Onesteel and Smorgon (both P/E's of about 15).
> Any ideas on why the market is being so unkind to BSL?




   Article in AirReview may explain some of it...   

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3196&setSub=1


----------



## Kipp (2 December 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Thanks for that Kauri, I agree it does sound pretty bleak for the steel market overall.


----------



## Julia (2 December 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

There have been warnings out for nearly a year now to the effect that China is gradually becoming a net exporter of steel whereas previously it was a net importer.  This has been described in dozens of articles in the financial and daily media.

I sold out at $8.65 in early November and am thankful I did.

Julia


----------



## TheAnalyst (22 December 2005)

*Re: Bluescope Steel!  BSL*

Just read that u sold out at 8.65 Julia that was a good move because if the net earnings per share are going from $1.34 to a minimum of 0.85cents then its value from say a high of $10.20 means a value to as low as $6.22 and a p/e of 7 would mean the stock would be valued at $5.95 and a p/e of 6 $5.10.

Now i know why macquarie has issued so many equity call warrants as of October 2005 because they know who ever was the suckers who bought BSLWMM and any similar call warrants have just delivered them all their dough that they used to purchase the warrants.

On a p/e of 10 then the stock will be at $8.50 and the only cautious point is the the chief director gave a minimum net earnings per share of between 0.85 cents and $1 so that a p/e of 10 at net earnings of $1 per share would give a share price of $10.00 then at certian time at cum dividend this also must be added to the calculated share prices.

Well thats the most fundamental trading range i can establish for the stock with good and bad scenarios of the net earnings per share taken into account.


----------



## Ann (11 February 2006)

8 February 2006
*BlueScope's 2006 profit may decline 53% on China steel glut*

Source: Bloomberg


BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia's largest steelmaker, said annual profit will fall as much as 53 percent because of a glut in China. The company's shares slid 12 percent, their biggest slump in three months.

Earnings per share will be 65 Australian cents to 75 Australian cents in the year ending June 30, the Melbourne-based company said in a statement today. That's down from a record A$1.374 ($1.01) last year and is below analysts' estimates.

China, which produces a third of the world's steel, became a net exporter for the first time last year, forcing companies such as Mittal Steel Co. and Posco to cut prices and output. BlueScope said prices this quarter fell as much as 20 percent from the first half and the "weaker pricing environment could continue."

"This is not a global steel demand issue; it is a regional over-production and steel supply issue," BlueScope managing director Kirby Adams said

Shares of BlueScope Steel fell 90 cents to close on the Australian Stock Exchange at A$6.56, the lowest since June 25, 2004. Other steelmakers in Asia also fell. Shares of Posco fell 2.7 percent to 217,500 won, and shares of Nippon Steel Corp. fell 3 percent to 425 yen.
China output

Chinese steel production may increase 10 percent this year, the China Iron and Steel Association said last month, after jumping 25 percent in 2005.

"Given how high the market is, if there's anyone missing their targets, they're really going to be hammered in a big way," said James Holt, who helps manage the equivalent of $4.6 billion at Zurich Financial Services Ltd. in Sydney.

Posco, the world's fifth-largest steelmaker, last month said its fourth-quarter profit fell 68 percent as benchmark Asian prices declined because of overproduction in China. Posco forecast sales would drop as much as 12 percent this year, reflecting increased competition from China. Posco cut its sales estimate twice last year.
'Depression'

"We are entering a valley of depression such as we have never experienced before," Chairman Lee Ku Tae said in his New Year speech to employees on Jan. 2. "China has become a net exporter due to its active expansion over the recent years and has become an unavoidable threat sooner than expected."

BlueScope and its rivals are being squeezed by falling prices for their products and high raw materials costs. The prices of iron ore and coking coal, used in steel making, jumped to records last year as Chinese steelmakers compete for the supply. Iron ore prices may rise another 12 percent from April this year, according to a Bloomberg survey in November.

"The question now is what happens in the longer term," Tony Farnham, an analyst at Aegis Equities Research Pty., said in Sydney.

'The oversupply from regional steel production has pushed down commodity steel prices and put unwarranted demand tension into raw materials which is hurting global steelmakers," said Kirby Adams in the BlueScope's statement posted on the Australian Stock Exchange. "These pressures have flowed through Asia and into our domestic markets."
Pipes

BlueScope produces hot-rolled steel coil, a benchmark product which is processed to make pipes and tubes and is used in cars and buildings. It also paints, coat and process steel, turning it into roofs, fences and walls. It has plants in Asian countries including China, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Hot-rolled coil prices fell by more than $100 a ton recently, Adams said on a conference call. BlueScope had to cut prices in Asia for products including hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized steel products.

Prices of hot-rolled coil for Japan, a benchmark product in Asia, may fall 28 percent this year to $429 a ton, from a year ago, according to a January forecast made by Sydney-based AME Mineral Economics.
Plant

BlueScope's Asian business posted a loss in the first half, BlueScope Steel said. The second half will be better for the unit, said BlueScope's Chief Financial Officer Paul O'Malley on a conference call with reporters.

The company is ramping up plant capacity in Asia, and has cut down on higher-cost materials in its inventories. Orders from customers are also starting to rise, O'Malley said.

In Australia, demand has been reduced from manufacturing and automotive customers, Adams said on the teleconference call. Higher oil prices reduced demand for cars, leading carmakers to slow orders for steel products, he said.

Kirby also said the company hasn't been approached with offers for mergers nor from a potential acquirer.

Asian Pacific steel stocks surged on Jan. 30, after Mittal Steel Co. made 18.6 billion euro ($22.3 billion) takeover bid for rival Arcelor SA, sparking speculation of more acquisitions.

The company said it expects to pay out at least 42 cents per share of dividend as previously announced. The company will report half-year earnings Feb. 20.


----------



## TheAnalyst (23 March 2006)

Things looking glim for BSL

China steel prices tipped to decline
Email Print Normal font Large font March 23, 2006 - 8:44PM

Chinese steel prices are likely to resume their fall in the second half of 2006 as growth in the country's demand for the metal slows, said an official at Baosteel, the world's sixth-largest steel maker.

Jia Yanlin, managing director of Baoshan Iron and Steel Co Ltd's raw material purchasing centre, told industry officials on Thursday a strong rebound in steel product prices since February was unsustainable, due to the nation's overcapacity.

"The growth rate in demand in 2006 will be much lower than in the past four years. The current output is very, very large," he said at a ferro-alloy conference organised by Metal Bulletin.

"Inevitably, prices will be on a downward path in the second half of this year."

Baosteel, China's largest steel maker, had a 2005 crude steel output of 23 million tonnes.

China's steel prices dived 32 per cent between last March and the end of last year, as capacity expansions led to a glut, especially in construction steel and flat products.

Yet prices rebounded in the first two months of 2006, allowing Baosteel to set its second-quarter prices more than 10 per cent higher than the first quarter.

Jia said factors underpinning the recent pick-up included a correction following a slump in prices last year, large exports and strong seasonal demand in the second quarter.

"We have a peak in demand in the second quarter every year," the official said. "But generally speaking, there is an oversupply (this year)."

Between 2006-2010, Jia said the growth in China's steel demand would slow to an average of about 6 per cent a year, from 21 per cent between 2000 and 2005.

Referring to China's fixed asset investment, which expanded by more than 25 per cent year-on-year in the last four to five years, the Baosteel official said: "I don't think China can keep such high growth rates for fixed asset investment."

"Fixed asset investment accounts for about half of GDP.

This has never happened in other countries."

Jia predicted many Chinese steel companies would suffer from losses and face cash flow and payment difficulties in future as steel prices decline. He also expected the industry to see many mergers and acquisitions.

Chinese steel firms' profits fell 74.6 per cent in the first two months of the year, compared with the same period of 2005, Chinese media said on Thursday, citing government statistics.

 © 2006 Reuters, Click for Restrictions


----------



## imaginator (31 March 2006)

What the heck happened to BSL on Friday?
I put a stop loss at $7 on Thursday, and suddenly today it went to $7 from about 7.2 or 7.3. It was triggered!


----------



## shinobi346 (17 June 2006)

China's disclosure of steel stockpiling athe ports triggered it probably. April and May were not good months but it's slowly climbing up again.


----------



## pacer (29 June 2006)

I think shorting bsl is a good way to go this week, not looking too good is it.
2nd profit downgrade and lots of sackings and closure of mills, and wouldn't surprise me if more closures happen over next few months.


----------



## pacer (30 June 2006)

Yes!!!, nice overnight sell and buyback first thing this morning,easy money.....the only one of the top 50 to fall over night, so had to sell straight away....made an average weeks wages ..... ahah


----------



## scsl (5 July 2006)

is anyone still holding onto or buying BSL at the moment? it seems people are still buying BSL over the last four months despite profit downgrades and negative news about the world steel market/costs.

i suspect that the sp's steady uptrend is being supported by the large institutions and fund buying...


----------



## redandgreen (5 July 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> is anyone still holding onto or buying BSL at the moment? it seems people are still buying BSL over the last four months despite profit downgrades and negative news about the world steel market/costs.
> 
> i suspect that the sp's steady uptrend is being supported by the large institutions and fund buying...




BSL is still, despite all the negative news, an attractive longer term  investment.  I am sure a lot of super funds hold this stock as it is currently trading well below fundamental value and btw the asian expansion could well prove to be its salvation.


----------



## scsl (5 July 2006)

redandgreen said:
			
		

> BSL is still, despite all the negative news, an attractive longer term  investment.  I am sure a lot of super funds hold this stock as it is currently trading well below fundamental value and btw the asian expansion could well prove to be its salvation.



i just had a read of this recent article posted on FNArena.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=234C46FD-17A4-1130-F529399DD754497E

brokers are mixed about their opinions on the asian businesses. GSJBWere are uncertain about the timing and size of any improvements that may arise, with a sp valuation of $8.27. Merrill Lynch believe that rising zinc and aluminium costs can be kept under control. they have a huge sp target of $10.50!


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## pacer (5 July 2006)

I short sold them last week as they seem to have a noticeable trend when they come off a top as you can see from the last year there are 5 big tops and they all fall away the same......will probably take my money and run tomorrow, as Im happy with a couple of grand for a short term, my number 2 rule.....if you're happy with what you've made, get out.

So I expect them to be lower tomorrow by 1-2% and possibly the same the next day, but should rise again after that if BSL follows the same pattern.

If the SP goes up a little tomorrow, I will probably still walk away with a bit of loot.


----------



## flyhigher (5 July 2006)

i shorted BSl today,expecting it drop to 7.5 or lower bolliger band, stop set at 8
cheers


----------



## Realist (5 July 2006)

> is anyone still holding onto or buying BSL at the moment?




I hold BSL and will continue to do so for a long time, forget all the recent hype, it is a great company with excellent longterm prospects IMHO.


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## nelly (5 July 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I hold BSL and will continue to do so for a long time, forget all the recent hype, it is a great company with excellent longterm prospects IMHO.



Realist..being new at this..[what do I know] I agree only because I have 'history' with this one....from before they existed.
Cheers...I remember the add.


----------



## pacer (7 July 2006)

Well I was right on the money and got out of my short position first thing this morning and should have bought back some more ....would have made another $500 for the day, never mind .....North Korea could change my graph mapping for the next week or so anyway.   $2000 profit in a week, what a funny game this is, no need to go find a real job.


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## Chief Wigam (9 July 2006)

With the all the takeover and mergers in the industry around the world, perhaps Bluescope is a candidate.


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## flyhigher (14 July 2006)

bsl fall less than peer group. shall i close my short position today?
thanks


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## dubiousinfo (18 August 2006)

Steel Biz Briefing



> According to Patrick Flockhart, Managing Director at Steel Biz Briefing a bit of weakness is coming out of the former CIS countries like Russia and Ukraine.
> 
> Western Europe is still very strong and it looks like there are going to be some further price rise coming in through Q4 that is for the period of October till December, he adds.
> 
> ...


----------



## dubiousinfo (27 September 2006)

BSL went ex a 24c dividend today & is only down 8c. But the ****** MM's have got the warrants down 15c.


----------



## Realist (27 September 2006)

Yeah I own BSL.   It's yield is at least good. And with a PER of 9.7 it aint overvalued...

That is the best I can say about it.  I'm down on this one..


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## finnsk (27 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Yeah I own BSL.   It's yield is at least good. And with a PER of 9.7 it aint overvalued



What about future dividends will they remain at same level?


----------



## GreatPig (27 September 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> BSL went ex a 24c dividend today & is only down 8c. But the ****** MM's have got the warrants down 15c.



Have they perhaps modified the strike?

GP


----------



## dubiousinfo (27 September 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Have they perhaps modified the strike?
> 
> GP




Nah strike is unmodified GP. They increase the extrinsic value leading up to an ex div date & then when it goes ex div, it drops back. Happens all the time. You just have to buy well before ex date.


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## bigdog (20 November 2006)

Todays Australian

BRAZILIAN steel maker Companhia Siderugica Nacional's pound stg. 5.3 billion ($13.25 billion) bid for Anglo-Dutch steel giant Corus could focus fresh attention on Australia's largest steel company, BlueScope, becoming a target as the much anticipated global consolidation of the steel industry gathers pace.

Could be reason for recent increase in SP!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20786047-643,00.html

Ta-ta Anglo-Dutch may mean hello BlueScope
Andrew Trounson 
November 20, 2006
BRAZILIAN steel maker Companhia Siderugica Nacional's pound stg. 5.3 billion ($13.25 billion) bid for Anglo-Dutch steel giant Corus could focus fresh attention on Australia's largest steel company, BlueScope, becoming a target as the much anticipated global consolidation of the steel industry gathers pace.
CSN's bid, subject to due diligence, trumps an agreed pound stg. 5.1 billion offer from India's Tata Steel and is expected to spark a bidding war, as Indian media reported that Tata could come back with a higher offer as soon as this week. 

Tata has been cast as a potential predator for BlueScope, given the two have formed a joint venture in India to build steel-product manufacturing plants, and Tata could be expected to take a fresh look at the Australian company if beaten by CSN for Corus. 

But while BlueScope's emerging downstream-focused Asian businesses may be attractive to Tata, bringing technology and new, high-value-added products such as prefabricated buildings, BlueScope lacks the global scale that is currently the prime driver of industry consolidation. 

Nevertheless, in a report last week, Credit Suisse highlighted the potential appeal of BlueScope to Tata. "(Tata) has aggressive growth aspirations and continues to discuss its interest in strengthening its Asia-Pacific presence by expansions and acquisition," Credit Suisse noted. 

BlueScope chief executive officer Kirby Adams is in Vietnam today to highlight that his Asian strategy, which has been troubled by higher costs and building delays, is now moving from the construction phase and into the delivery phase, with the opening of the company's new $136 million Phu My flat-steel metallic coating plant near Ho Chi Minh City. 

The stakes have been raised in the global steel sector since the $US35 billion merger earlier this year of Mittal and Arcelor, the world's No1 and No2 producers, respectively. In terms of production, the two combined are three times the size of their nearest competitor, Japan's Nippon Steel.


----------



## bigdog (12 December 2006)

BSL SP has increased from $6.48 Oct 2 to $8.07 Dec 11 (24% increase)!!!
-- looking verygood!

Todays Australian


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20911191-643,00.html
Boutique bank on right side of fence
Katherine Jimenez, Kevin Andrusiak 
December 12, 2006

statements included:

Bell Potter director of research Peter Quinton said: "I suspect we are in for a good, solid year of merger and acquisition activity. 

Mr Quinton listed more than 20 Australian companies which would probably attract some degree of private equity interest, including a mix of miners and industrial companies. 

Those mentioned included Zinifex, Macquarie Airports, Bluescope, Computershare, Santos and Lend Lease.


----------



## bigdog (24 January 2007)

Todays Age:

Companies steel themselves for plan B as countdown clock runs down
Stephen Bartholomeusz
January 24, 2007

THE countdown has started. In exactly a week, OneSteel and Smorgon Steel will switch to their back-up merger plan, unless BlueScope Steel has a change of heart.

When OneSteel and Smorgon announced their contingency plan for their $1.6 billion merger in mid-December, they essentially invited BlueScope to either bid for Smorgon by January 3 or come back to the negotiating table by January 31.

The three steel companies had been trying to stare each other down since the middle of last year, when the merger was announced. That provoked a $320 million sharemarket raid by BlueScope that gave it 20 per cent of Smorgon and the effective ability to block the planned scheme of arrangement.

For full article, refer link below


http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...clock-runs-down/2007/01/23/1169518709964.html


----------



## bigdog (30 January 2007)

The SP today has increased 4.27%
BSL   +$8.80    +$0.36  +4.27% 3,294,196  $28,406,383  30-Jan 15:07:52 
The SP is almost 12 high!

I hold BSL

Todays Age is update on proposed merger of OneSteel and Smorgon Steel 

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...rns-into-a-saga/2007/01/29/1169919274186.html

Merger proposal turns into a saga
Hank Spier
January 30, 2007


WHEN OneSteel and Smorgon Steel proposed their merger, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission issued a 15-page statement of issues ”” a series of red lights ”” expressing concern. Six months later, not one of those red lights has turned green.

The merger proposal is becoming a saga. In their latest incarnation of the deal on December 18, the proponents acknowledged there was little prospect of the original proposal proceeding.

But this week the ACCC is being asked to approve what is essentially the same deal, broken into stages ”” without the original misgivings being resolved. Are the parties "playing" with the ACCC?

Not surprisingly, the merger still faces major difficulties in obtaining clearance in its original scheme of arrangement announced last June 26, and the December 18 alternative deal structure. Hopefully the ACCC is very suspicious.

Throughout, OneSteel and Smorgon Steel have sought to make light of the ACCC and BlueScope Steel's 19.99 per cent blocking actions, but they did ask the ACCC in September to suspend its clearance decision-making process and, on December 18, they proposed a plan B merger structure.

The alternative structure seeks to avoid BlueScope's blocking stake by abandoning a scheme of arrangement and seeking to achieve the takeover by way of an asset sale, but contains nothing to deal with the ACCC's statement of issues. Those in the industry who expressed concerns about plan A are entitled to be frustrated.

In the ASX December 18 announcement, the parties were coy about their ACCC problems (and even more so about the contingent capital gains tax liabilities Smorgon Steel shareholders may face).

The parties may be hoping that by breaking the merger into steps, the ACCC might approve each step in isolation of the others ”” a not unknown tactic. If this is the strategy, it will be tested tomorrow, when the ACCC is due to decide on the first step in plan B ”” a pipe and tube joint venture.

OneSteel has been quite open in stating that plan B was designed to bring forward a merger and the realisation of some of the synergies the merger would deliver.

It is difficult to see Smorgons in any joint venture and, if cleared by the ACCC, plan A would be soon back on the table, yet a different table with part of what may be a "creeping" acquisition already in place.

That joint venture would permit OneSteel to acquire Smorgon's share of the joint venture ”” pipe and tube manufacturing ”” in a range of possible circumstances. These include where there is a change of control or where a major customer or supplier gains a seat on Smorgon's board.

It is hard to understand why the Smorgon Steel board would lock up a key part of its business by entering into the pipe and tube joint venture with OneSteel, before getting an answer from the ACCC on the balance of the merger proposal.

But it seems neither OneSteel nor Smorgon is keen to obtain the answer from the ACCC on their merger. Neither has answered the many issues the ACCC raised in August.

The ACCC had five "red light" issues and six "amber light" issues about the merger of Australia's only two long product steel manufacturers.

One ACCC red-light issue was reinforcing bar, rod and mesh, yet the parties' plan B still involves OneSteel acquiring all Smorgon's reinforcing bar, rod and mesh assets, including the reinforcing distribution business.

Another red-light issue was scrap metal. The parties have ignored the ACCC and surprisingly entered a five-year exclusive agreement for the supply of scrap. Again, plan B would result in Smorgon's scrap metal business sold to OneSteel

Steel distribution, another red-light issue, would be left with Smorgon, but Smorgon would be commercially dependent on its largest distribution competitor, OneSteel.

It is time for OneSteel and Smorgon Steel to inform the market properly about how and when they expect ACCC approval, and when might they begin to address the real red-light issues.

Hank Spier was a senior executive of the ACCC from 1983 to 2000.


----------



## bigdog (31 January 2007)

SP today BSL   $8.61    -$0.12  -1.37%

ACCC okays OneSteel-Smorgon jv
January 31, 2007 - 2:19PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/ACCC-okays-OneSteelSmorgon-jv/2007/01/31/1169919387215.html

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) says it will not intervene in the proposed joint venture between OneSteel Ltd and Smorgon Steel Group Ltd.

Under a proposal launched in December, OneSteel plans to acquire about $1.1 billion in Smorgon assets, but not its distribution business.

The pair also will create a stand-alone joint venture to manufacture structural pipes and tubes, producing more than 500,000 tonnes a year and realising $10 million to $20 million in annual savings.

Chairman Graeme Samuel said market inquiries indicated that the pipe and tube products which the joint venture will produce are currently imported in significant quantities into Australia.

"The ACCC took into consideration the significant increase in the volume of imports in recent times and the increasing role they have played in competition in the relevant markets," he said.

"In addition, post-joint venture there will remain an independent domestic producer of pipe and tube products inOrrcon.

"The ACCC considers that the presence of Orrcon in conjunction with the availability of imported pipe and tube products is likely to act as a strong competitive constraint on the joint venture."

The ACCC said it had considered the role of anti-dumping applications on competition in pipe and tube markets.

But as the parties had offered an undertaking relatingto this issue, it had and formed the view that past anti-dumping actions did not appear to have impacted significantly on the ability of imports to compete in the market.

"Further, the ACCC did not consider that the proposed joint venture would provide the parties with any increased ability to inhibit imports by means of making anti-dumping applications," Mr Samuel said.

"As such, the ACCC did not consider it necessary toaccept the undertaking offered by OneSteel and Smorgon."

The ACCC added that it will consider any further arrangements between OneSteel and Smorgon when detailed proposals are put forward by the parties.

Under the revised proposal released in December, Smorgon Steel will continue as an independent, listed company with its distribution assets.

Its shareholders will retain their shares, receive a 6.2 cents-a-share dividend and between 0.2450 and 0.2711 OneSteel shares per Smorgon share - or one OneSteel share for about every four Smorgon shares held.

But when the revised proposal was unveiled last year, Australia's largest steelmaker BlueScope Steel Ltd, which has previously tried to block the merger and holds a 19.98 per cent blocking stake in Smorgon, said the deal was far from over.

At 1405 AEDT Smorgon's shares were steady at $1.83, OneSteel added six cents to $4.70 and BlueScope shed eight cents at $8.65.


----------



## bigdog (12 February 2007)

SP has been really increasing to 12 month high

Today closed at $9.3100   +$0.1500   +1.6%   

Does anyone have an explantion why the SP is increasing steadily?

Are there any Indian visitors in Australia currently?

I hold and I am LOL.

Date ----  Close-Volume

9-Feb-07	  9.16 	3,420,837
8-Feb-07	  8.95 	2,976,337
7-Feb-07	  8.84 	3,040,856
6-Feb-07	  8.57 	5,827,948
5-Feb-07	  8.67 	2,282,469
2-Feb-07	  8.72 	1,318,759
1-Feb-07	  8.69 	2,123,158
31-Jan-07 8.62 	3,769,114
30-Jan-07 8.73 	5,222,064
29-Jan-07 8.44 	2,770,628
25-Jan-07 8.31 	6,008,381
24-Jan-07 8.47 	2,131,132
23-Jan-07 8.32 	1,758,446
22-Jan-07 8.26 	5,322,060
19-Jan-07 8.18 	1,363,401
18-Jan-07 8.15 	1,971,089
17-Jan-07 8.29 	2,183,100
16-Jan-07 8.28 	1,503,448
15-Jan-07 8.22 	3,298,477
12-Jan-07 8.30 	2,408,038
11-Jan-07 8.13 	2,715,422
10-Jan-07 8.02 	4,877,880


----------



## bigdog (26 February 2007)

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Busin...t-up-24-to-388m/2007/02/26/1172338505488.html

TheAge today
Bluescope H1 profit up 24% to $388m
February 26, 2007 - 9:24AM

Bluescope Steel Ltd has reported a rise in first-half profit but does not expect its second half result to be as strong as the first.

Australia's largest steel maker on Monday booked a 24 per cent rise in interim profit to $388 million.

"We do not currently expect our second-half financial result to be as strong as the first-half," the company said.

Nevertheless, BlueScope expects its full-year results to be a "significant improvement" over the previous year.

Last year, BlueScope reported a $338 million net profit, down from a record $982 million in the previous year.

BlueScope said second-half average prices for hot rolled coil and slab globally were expected to be moderately lower than first-half average prices.

"In North America, although scrap costs are rising and demand in the automotive and housing sectors is softening, we expect overall steel demand to slightly improve late in the second-half," BlueScope said.

BlueScope expects the Australian construction market to remain strong but says weakness will continue in the automotive and manufacturing sectors.

A strengthening of the Australian dollar may effect local sales volumes, Bluescope added.


ASX announcments today
BSL 8:28 AM   First Half FY07 Results Presentation 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00696594

BSL 8:27 AM   Half Year Accounts 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00696592

BSL 8:27 AM  Half Year Earnings Report 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00696591

I hold BSL


----------



## bigdog (26 February 2007)

The market liked to ANN this morning and up 12 cents at very early trading first up

BSL   $9.87    +$0.12  +1.23%  231,432 shares $2,290,173  26-Feb 10:00:41


----------



## bigdog (26 February 2007)

SMH report today

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...sed-merger-deal/2007/02/26/1172338514726.html

*BlueScope open to revised merger deal*
February 26, 2007 - 11:09AM

BlueScope Steel Ltd says it may support a revised scheme of arrangement between Smorgon Steel Group Ltd and OneSteel Ltd.

Smorgon and OneSteel announced earlier this month that they would press ahead with a revised merger plan after the previous proposal was stymied by the competition regulator and BlueScope.

"BlueScope remains open to supporting a Scheme of Arrangement," Australia's largest steelmaker said in its presentation slides for an analysts conference.

"However, at this stage, OneSteel and Smorgon have not proposed a revised structure that is acceptable to BlueScope."

The revised plan, announced in December, has Smorgon staying as an independent, listed entity. OneSteel is to buy $1.1 billion in Smorgon assets but not its distribution business.

The pair will create a structural tube and pipe joint venture, producing more than 500,000 tonnes a year, which already has clearance from the competition regulator.

BlueScope said the merger is facing hurdles including competition approval for the remaining parts of the deal, tax rulings, and possible value leakage in the new proposal.

But BlueScope also sent a stern warning to its two smaller rivals.

"BlueScope will continue to act to protect and enhance value for its shareholders," it said."

Earlier BlueScope reported a 24 per cent rise in interim profit to $388 million but said its second half result would be lower.


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## bigdog (20 March 2007)

I hope everyone is happy and the BSl SP continues to rise!

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...gon-strike-deal/2007/03/20/1174153053820.html

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070320/pdf/311kgzxzhlnjpn.pdf

BlueScope, OneSteel, Smorgon strike deal
Email Print Normal font Large font March 20, 2007 - 6:09PM

Onesteel Ltd and Smorgon Steel Group Ltd have reached a deal with Australia's largest steelmaker BlueScope Steel Ltd, that will allow them to pursue a merger.

BlueScope says it won't oppose the merger in return for being able to buy Smorgon's distribution business, for an enterprise value of $700 million.

BlueScope now plans to conduct due diligence on the distribution business and formalise a sale and purchase agreement.

It will also assume the position of acquirer and resupplier of scrap for OneSteel's Sydney Steel Mill.

In exchange, BlueScope will vote in favour of a scheme of arrangement whereby OneSteel will buy all of Smorgon's shares for a OneSteel shares and possibly some cash.

But before the scheme becomes effective, OneSteel would buy BlueScope's 19.98 per cent stake in Smorgon Steel for a cash price equivalent to the value payable to Smorgon Steel shareholders under the scheme.

"The parties have a period expected to be approximately two weeks during which time they intend to conduct and finalise due diligence on Smorgon Steel Distribution and also to negotiate and finalise formal agreements for the acquisition," a joint statement from the three steelmakers said.

"If the parties are unable to reach agreement by the end of that period, or BlueScope is otherwise dissatisfied with the results of its due diligence investigations, the proposal and agreement in principle will terminate."

If that happens, Smorgon and OneSteel plan to continue with their alternative transaction announced on December 18, whereby OneSteel will buy all of Smorgon's businesses and assets, other than Smorgon Steel Distribution, which will continue as a listed entity.

The new proposal is still subject to a number of conditions, including approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

"Having regard to the new proposal and the agreement in principle, OneSteel and Smorgon Steel have today asked the ACCC to postpone consideration of the new transaction, pending confirmation that BlueScope's due diligence investigations on Smorgon Steel Distribution are satisfactory and the negotiation and formalisation of legal documentation for the proposal," the companies said.

"In those circumstances, a new submission to the ACCC will be made."


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## Broadway (20 March 2007)

I watch BSL fairly closely intraday and it is having a great ride lately, really bounces well from the couple of global corrections lately.

It seems to have 2 types of days recently, one is where it will follow bhp to every single spike and trough, to the minute.

There other is where it seems to detach fully from its big brother and represent a great day for the shorters. 

I wonder if what you have mentioned about mergers etc will upset it's nice relationships it has at the moment. I certainly hope not.

Happy trading.


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## bigdog (16 May 2007)

Steelmaker may be a target, says Adams
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21738496-643,00.html

Steelmaker may be a target, says Adams
Andrew Trounson 
May 16, 2007 

BLUESCOPE Steel's soon-to-depart chief executive Kirby Adams said yesterday that navigating a rapidly consolidating global steel sector would be a key challenge for his successor and that the company itself was a potential target.

"Externally, the big issue confronting the company is what is happening in the global steel industry and the consolidation that is going on there," Mr Adams said yesterday. 

With the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission set to rule next week on whether to approve a carve-up of Smorgon Steel between BlueScope and OneSteel, Mr Adams said local consolidation was one way of striving to stay globally competitive. 

He said that the Australian industry was tiny by global standards, consuming about 8million tonnes a year, compared with record annual global demand of 1.2 billion tonnes. 

Mittal's $US44 billion takeover of European steel giant Arcelor last year has sparked a round of consolidation in the sector. India's Tata steel this year acquired Corus Steel for $US13 billion, while US Steel has forked out $US2.1 billion for specialist steel products maker Lone Star Technologies. 

"Clearly we are seeing consolidation in the industry in global terms at an unprecedented rate," Mr Adams said. 

BlueScope is expected to name a successor at its full-year results in August, and Mr Adams is scheduled to step down in October. All internal candidates have been interviewed by the board, with the leading contenders including Australian manufacturing chief Brian Kruger, North American boss Lance Hockridge and chief financial officer Paul O'Malley. But an external candidate has not yet been ruled out. 

The ACCC is due to make its decision on May 23, with the key risk to the Smorgon deal being if it decided import competition would be insufficient to counteract OneSteel becoming dominant in long steel products like rods, bars and wire.



The BSL share price has been very good for the 2007 
-- Jan 10 $8.02 and May 15 $12.33 with all time high $12.65 yesterday May 15
Date	 Close 	Volume
15-May-07	 12.33 	2,852,651
14-May-07	 12.41 	1,814,662
11-May-07	 12.07 	2,177,466
04-May-07	 12.26 	2,430,445
27-Apr-07	 11.69 	3,695,119
20-Apr-07	 11.64 	1,447,752
13-Apr-07	 11.35 	1,772,199
05-Apr-07	 10.92 	949,409
30-Mar-07	 10.50 	7,054,880
23-Mar-07	 9.95 	1,982,345
16-Mar-07	 9.77 	3,835,982
09-Mar-07	 9.40 	2,240,752
02-Mar-07	 9.22 	4,426,266
23-Feb-07	 9.75 	5,647,314
16-Feb-07	 9.46 	6,072,611
09-Feb-07	 9.16 	3,420,837
02-Feb-07	 8.72 	1,318,759
19-Jan-07	 8.18 	1,363,401
12-Jan-07	 8.30 	2,408,038
11-Jan-07	 8.13 	2,715,422
10-Jan-07	 8.02 	4,877,880


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## bigdog (22 May 2007)

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21769219-664,00.html

Bluescope has big Indon plans
May 21, 2007 12:00am

BLUESCOPE Steel Ltd is going to reinvigorate its Indonesian growth story with a $122.65 million investment in a new metallic coating line.

The thin-gauge coils are used primarily in residential construction, which accounts for half of BlueScope's Indonesian business compared with 30 per cent five years ago. 

"This market continues to experience strong growth in both the residential and commercial building sectors," BlueScope president Indonesia and Malaysia Rob Crawford said. 

"BlueScope Steel Indonesia is operating at full capacity, so the new, dedicated line will lead to improved efficiency, increased scale and an ability to support our customers' market growth." 

The new line will be at Cilegon, about 100km west of the capital Jakarta and is expected to be operational by the end of calendar 2009. 

The original construction, on which BlueScope has already spent $14.6 million, was postponed last year after the steelmaker decided to focus on projects already under way in Asia. 

"We are delighted to recommence this investment, given the continued strength of the Indonesian market and the high regard for BlueScope Steel product," said BlueScope Steel chief executive Kirby Adams. 

Mr Adams is due to retire in October. 

"Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is a key market in our growing Asian business," he said. 

"This project represents a strong endorsement from our board of BlueScope Steel's Asian growth strategy." 

The total additional metal coated output will be 130,000 tonnes a year and the additional painted output will be 100,000 tonnes a year, taking the total coated output to 265,000 tonnes and painted output to about 160,000 tonnes a year. 

BlueScope entered the Indonesian market about 34 years ago, and has made investments totalling about $250 million. 

PT BlueScope Steel Indonesia is the country's only local manufacturer of zinc/aluminium metallic-coated and pre-painted steel, with plants at Cilegon, Cibitung, Medan and Surabaya. 

BlueScope shares ended 13 cents, or one per cent, higher at $11.98. 

Back home, BlueScope is preparing for a determination from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission this week on its proposed acquisition of the distribution business of its smaller rival Smorgon Steel Group Ltd for $700 million. 

The agreement brought to an end months of wrangling between the three parties, after BlueScope snapped up 19.98 per cent of Smorgon for $320 million, to block the $1.6 billion friendly merger of OneSteel and Smorgon. 

OneSteel will buy the remaining Smorgon businesses, if regulatory clearance is given to the deal.


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## bigdog (23 May 2007)

I can only guess the downward trend of the SP for the past week may relates to possible outcome of the "A.C.C.C. CONTINUES DISCUSSIONS WITH STEEL MERGER PARTIES" ASX ann today!!

SP today currently
BSL   $11.64    -$0.21  -1.77%  1,539,255 shares $17,973,472 @ 23-May 13:03:28  

The SP is $1 down on the bigh of $12.65 on May 15

Date ----- Close -	Volume

22-May-07	 11.85 	2,614,369
21-May-07	 11.98 	2,337,431
18-May-07	 11.85 	2,111,750
17-May-07	 12.10 	3,335,029
16-May-07	 12.10 	2,957,275
15-May-07	 12.33 	2,852,651
14-May-07	 12.41 	1,814,662

ASX ann today:
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission today announced that it was continuing discussions with the parties involved in the proposals to acquire Smorgon.

The focus of those discussions will be to address unresolved issues between the ACCC and parties that relate to the effectiveness of imports as a competitive constraint.

The ACCC expects to announce a decision shortly, subject to the progress and the outcome of those discussions.


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## nomore4s (23 May 2007)

bigdog said:


> I can only guess the downward trend of the SP for the past week may relates to possible outcome of the "A.C.C.C. CONTINUES DISCUSSIONS WITH STEEL MERGER PARTIES" ASX ann today!!
> 
> SP today currently
> BSL   $11.64    -$0.21  -1.77%  1,539,255 shares $17,973,472 @ 23-May 13:03:28
> ...




Bigdog, it's interesting that OST is up this week and up 12c today even with this news & ssx is about even today.


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## bigdog (7 June 2007)

Great news today for BSL with ASX ANN
-- lets see what now happens to the SP after the decline of the past weeks!!

BSL   $10.76    +$0.10  +0.94%  high $10.92 and low of $10.51  2,279,887 shares $24,362,520 @ 07-Jun 14:11:36 

07-06-2007 02:10 PM  BSL  SSX/OST/BSL transactions cleared by ACCC  
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00728017
*Smorgon Steel / OneSteel / BlueScope Steel transactions cleared by ACCC 7 June 2007*

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (“ACCC”) announced today that it will not oppose either the proposed merger between Smorgon Steel and OneSteel ("Merger") or the proposed acquisition by BlueScope Steel of the Smorgon Steel Distribution Businesses ("BlueScope Acquisition").  Accordingly, BlueScope Steel, Smorgon Steel and OneSteel confirm that the ACCC conditions to implementation of the proposal, which includes the Merger and the BlueScope Acquisition, are now satisfied.

The ACCC decision follows the provision of revised undertakings by OneSteel relating to unsuccessful anti-dumping applications in relation to specified products made or supported by OneSteel over the next five years.

Smorgon Steel has lodged a draft Scheme Book with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (“ASIC”) and, subject to ASIC’s review of the document, an application to convene meetings of shareholders to consider the Scheme of Arrangement will be heard by the Supreme Court of Victoria as soon as possible.

Smorgon Steel expects that, subject to completion of these remaining processes, it will issue a detailed Scheme Book to shareholders before the end of June and that a shareholder meeting to consider the Scheme will be held before the end of July.


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## bigdog (14 June 2007)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-BBBplus-rating/2007/06/13/1181414346474.html

Fitch affirms Bluescope BBB-plus rating
June 13, 2007 - 11:49AM

Fitch Ratings has removed Bluescope Steel Ltd from its rating watch negative status after the corporate watchdog approved the consolidation of assets of the three major Australian steel producers.

Fitch on Wednesday affirmed Bluescope's BBB-plus issuer default rating and said the outlook for the company was stable.

Last week, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) cleared the way for Bluescope, Smorgon Steel Group and OneSteel Ltd to consolidate their assets into two groups.

BlueScope will buy Smorgon's distribution business for about $700 million and OneSteel will merge with the rest of Smorgon's assets, for $1.1 billion.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 June 2007)

Has BSL now turned its decline. I think it is too early to say but yesterday gave some good action without over supply and a bounce off two points of interest for me. I am watching for an entry.


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## reece55 (21 June 2007)

I'm with you Snake.

It seems to have retraced just above the previous waves peak at 10.10~ ish level, which just happens to be around about (just below) the previous all time highs before this move established in Feb 05 at 10.20 or so.

BSL is a stock in a great long term up trend, now could prove to be an attractive entry point. Maybe a little more patience is required, but we are nearly there.....

Cheers


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## bigdog (21 June 2007)

Bluescope SP is doing well first up this morning up 10 cents

BSL   $10.46    +$0.10  +0.97%  3,220,927 shares $33,633,870 @ 21-Jun 10:03:21


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> I'm with you Snake.
> 
> It seems to have retraced just above the previous waves peak at 10.10~ ish level, which just happens to be around about (just below) the previous all time highs before this move established in Feb 05 at 10.20 or so.
> 
> ...




Hi reece,

I just took an entry @ $10.45. I am running a tight stop on this so won't be surprised if I stop out. If it stops out though it may tank further. I place emphasis on my entries and initial stops - if they survive I am in the money

Enjoy your day.
Regards
Snake


----------



## reece55 (21 June 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi reece,
> 
> I just took an entry @ $10.45. I am running a tight stop on this so won't be surprised if I stop out. If it stops out though it may tank further. I place emphasis on my entries and initial stops - if they survive I am in the money
> 
> ...




Snake......
Took a small entry myself at 10.45, exactly the same as you........

My next entry target to extend my exposure was 10.60, but we hit that at the close. Potential commencement of a wave 5 here.....

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> Snake......
> Took a small entry myself at 10.45, exactly the same as you........
> 
> My next entry target to extend my exposure was 10.60, but we hit that at the close. Potential commencement of a wave 5 here.....
> ...




Hi Reece,

Good move. It was up on impressive volume today especially at the close.

I will pyramid my position.

Happy hunting.
Snake


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (9 July 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi Reece,
> 
> Good move. It was up on impressive volume today especially at the close.
> 
> ...




Hi Reece,

It broke $11.00 in trading.
Final position taken. 

Cheers.............................................................


----------



## reece55 (11 July 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi Reece,
> 
> It broke $11.00 in trading.
> Final position taken.
> ...




Hi Snake
I got stopped out back down at 10.5 ish from memory, bit of a pity really because it has certainly moved nicely. Too tight on the stop here, still seems valid that a wave 5 could be on it's way here....

All the best in the position mate..

Cheers
Reece


----------



## bigdog (31 July 2007)

The market did not like todays news!!

SP is currently down
 BSL   	$11.09  	   	  -$0.26   	  -2.29%   	 high $11.36, low  	 $11.08  	 1,295,389 shares  	 $14,559,388 @ 	 31-Jul 12:59:14

Todays press

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22164226-5006368,00.html
*Smorgon shareholders back break-up*
July 31, 2007 10:43am

SHAREHOLDERS have backed the break-up of Smorgon Steel Group by OneSteel and BlueScope Steel at a meeting in Melbourne.
Chairman Graham Smorgon told the meeting 99.75 per cent of proxies supported the break-up.

Votes from shareholders present at the meeting are expected to push support for the break-up to more than 99.8 per cent, with the final result to be announced to the ASX shortly.

"It is a sad day when I think back to the start of this company and where it's come from and where it's going to," Mr Smorgon told reporters after the meeting.

"But under these circumstances, it's the right thing for shareholders and so it's got to be done."

Under the break-up arrangement, BlueScope will acquire Smorgon's distribution business for about $700 million and OneSteel will pick up the rest of Smorgon's assets for $1.1 billion.

An independent expert's report carried out by Grant Samuel & Associates has deemed the merger as being in the interests of Smorgon's shareholders.

Mr Smorgon said consolidation in the steel industry was inevitable.

"Australia's a very small market and it's just not big enough to sustain the growth that's necessary in steel," he said.

"Steel is back in favour and I think there will be further consolidation worldwide."


----------



## bigdog (3 August 2007)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...y-housing-slump/2007/08/03/1185648107814.html

*BlueScope 'unaffected' by housing slump*
August 3, 2007 - 11:50AM

BlueScope Steel Ltd outgoing chief executive Kirby Adams says the business is not being affected by the US housing slump.

"We've not seen any crossover contagion from the US housing slump into our business," Mr Adams said.

"From our point of view the North American housing market remains good."

Mr Adams' comments were made at a press conference ahead of the expected confirmation of BlueScope's buy of the distribution business of Smorgon Steel Group Ltd.

BlueScope's Butler Manufacturing in the US produces steel building systems.

Mr Adams also reiterated that the company has had informal approaches over the years, but indicated that there had been no firm takeover proposals, explaining: "There's been a lot of flirting and no diamond ring".

At 1131 AEST on Friday BlueScope's shares were down one cent at $10.58.


----------



## bigdog (4 August 2007)

BlueScope Steel rejects talk that takeover offers have rolled in
Tan Hwee Ann
August 4, 2007
http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...n/2007/08/03/1185648147722.html?page=fullpage

BLUESCOPE Steel says it has not received any takeover offers, following speculation it may be the next company to receive a bid in the industry.

"There's been a lot of flirting but no diamond ring," said Kirby Adams, chief executive of the Melbourne-based company. "There's no secret that there's been a number of approaches over the past few years." Late last month, The Australian Financial Review said Arcelor Mittal, the world's largest steel maker, might be considering a bid for BlueScope.

Higher steel prices have prompted takeover offers worth $US34 billion ($A39.6 billion) in the industry this year, according to Bloomberg data.

BlueScope yesterday won court approval to buy the distribution unit of rival Smorgon Steel Group for $520 million.

This meant BlueScope was buying the unit at six to seven times its annual earnings, Mr Adams said.

Mr Adams also said the company's US Butler business unit, which provides products for commercial and industrial projects, had not been affected by the slowdown in the US housing market.

Butler and architectural products accounted for 6 per cent of pre-tax earnings for the half ended December 31.

"We haven't seen any crossover contagion," Mr Adams said. "From our view, the North American market remains good and we're very pleased with our performance there."

The US is mired in the worst housing recession in 16 years. Purchases of new houses fell 6.6 per cent in June, the biggest drop since January, the US Government said last month.

BlueScope produces hot-rolled steel coil, a benchmark product, which is processed to make pipes and tubes and is used in cars and buildings.

It also paints, coats and processes steel, which it turns into roofs, fences and walls.

BLOOMBERG


----------



## bigdog (20 August 2007)

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22274555-5006368,00.html


BlueScope Steel doubles profit
By Isabelle Oderberg

August 20, 2007 11:04am

BLUESCOPE Steel has doubled annual earnings and says it has started the new year well due to ongoing strong demand in the global steel market.  Australia's biggest steelmaker made a fiscal 2007 net profit of $686 million, up 103 per cent from $338 million in the prevous year.

Revenue jumped 11 per cent from $8.031 billion to $8.913 billion, on the back of higher prices, a better product mix in exports and higher sales at home and in Asia and the US.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 67 per cent to $1.423 billion.

Outgoing chief executive Kirby Adams said the outlook for fiscal 2008 was positive.

"This year, the global steel market was very strong with the forecast for global steel demand remaining positive," he said.

"China, the USA and Europe are driving this healthy outlook.

"Asia now produces more than half of all the crude steel produced in the world, and China is the largest single market for steel and has the strongest demand growth of any country."

Mr Adams said while the Chinese Government had been working to eliminate inefficient mills and reduce exports, it had not significantly slowed production.

In Australia, BlueScope had started fiscal 2008 well with a stronger Australian dollar, a stable global steel price environment and high metal coating costs.

"Asian markets and opportunities are slightly improved, and the operational ramp-up of new sites is growing revenue while coated product margins continue to be under pressure, particularly in China," he said.

"We will continue to aggressively manage those factors over which we have control, including focusing on safety and environment, containing costs, improving our processes, achieving volume and production efficiencies, and optimising mix and margins.

"Clearly, our global footprint and the diversity of our product lines will be of benefit going forward."

Earlier this mont, BlueScope announced that Mr Adams will be succeeded by chief financial officer Paul O'Malley in November.

Mr Adams said his last annual result as chief executive was pleasing with "excellent" operational performances across all businesses, including production records.

"All business reporting segments were profitable, with Port Kembla Steelworks continuing to be the profit and cash flow engine of the company," he said.

"Pleasingly, our Asian portfolio exhibited substantial volume growth as new operations in China, Vietnam, Thailand and India were commissioned and ramped up.

"Margin compression in our mid-stream metallic coating and painting businesses prevailed through most of the year, as these businesses confronted huge increases in zinc costs and growing exports from expanding north Asian production."

BlueScope also revealed that a 19.9 per cent stake in Smorgon Steel Group, which it bought in August 2006, to block the smaller group's takeover by rival OneSteel, had cost it $319 million.

A gain of around $128 million will be recognised in its 2008 earnings on the sale of the shares back to OneSteel.

The share purchase helped BlueScope forge its involvement in the sector's consolidation, winning Smorgon's distribution business for around $700 million and leaving the rest of the company to OneSteel.

Mr Adams said global consolidation in the steel industry will continue, following Mittal's acquisition of Arcelor, Tata's purchase of Corus and more recently, Ternium's acquisition of Grupo IMSA.

"One of the principal benefits of this consolidation is better matching of production to demand as well as global economies of scale and marketing," Mr Adams said.

"I expect this consolidation process to continue its momentum over the next couple of years."

BlueScope also said it balance sheet gearing had dropped to 28 per cent, from 38 per cent, giving it a "very strong financial platform" for continuing growth.

Bluescope, which was spun out of BHP Billiton Ltd five years ago, declared a final dividend of 26 cents for the year ended June 30.

The total dividend for the year was 47 cents, up seven per cent on fiscal 2006.


----------



## bigdog (13 October 2007)

*BSL SP has increased 9.35% in past the 13 days to $11.34*
Date------ Close Inc%.. Volume....  
12-Oct-07	 *11.34* 	0.35%	2,353,991
11-Oct-07	 11.30 	1.25%	2,790,955
10-Oct-07	 11.16 	2.10%	3,521,942
09-Oct-07	 10.93 	-0.64%	4,591,108
08-Oct-07	 11.00 	0.18%	2,740,299
05-Oct-07	 10.98 	0.46%	1,223,553
04-Oct-07	 10.93 	-3.02%	2,787,984
03-Oct-07	 11.27 	4.26%	5,141,747
01-Oct-07	 10.81 	0.56%	1,460,368
28-Sep-07	 10.75 	1.03%	8,684,943
27-Sep-07	 10.64 	1.33%	4,844,296
26-Sep-07	 10.50 	1.25%	4,832,450
25-Sep-07	 *10.37* -----	4,848,296

*Bluescope an attractive takeover target - analyst*
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22574357-5006368,00.html
Article from: AAP
October 12, 2007 03:43pm

STEEL producer Bluescope Steel could easily be swallowed by a larger rival in a deal potentially worth up to $8.5 billion.

Research from brokerage JP Morgan lists Bluescope as an attractive target within the steel industry, which has seen a spate of takeovers in the past few years.

"BlueScope is of a size that could be relatively easily purchased and integrated into a number of larger steel producers,'' JP Morgan said in a client note.

"We do not rule out the possibility of a takeover bid for Bluescope, we are cautious, however, on the magnitude of the premium that could likely be paid.''

JP Morgan said Bluescope's established downstream operations across Southern Asia and upstream operations in Australia, the United States and New Zealand made the company an attractive target.

Using financial figures from calendar 2005, JP Morgan assumes an implied takeover price of $11.67 for every Bluescope share, valuing a potential deal at $8.5 billion.

The brokerage examined a number of recent major recent steel transaction and used the 2005 figures to ensure all of the companies in the sample were experiencing similar steel price conditions.

The global steel industry has undergone a flurry of consolidation over the past five years, underscored by Mittal's acquisition of large European rival Arcelor, positioning the company as the dominant producer globally.

There has also been a string of acquisitions among the mid-sized steel producers as companies seek to consolidate their regional positions and expand into new markets.

"BlueScope is truly a niche producer on a global scale and the larger steel producers would seemingly have little difficulty in acquiring it,'' JP Morgan said.

"Given the almost monotonous procession of large acquisitions seen within the global steel sector over the last five years, a consistent theme that has emerged around BlueScope Steel is the possibility of it being bid for in the near future and the size of a potential takeover premium.'' 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
However, JP Morgan rates the stock as underweight on 11/10/2007 and has set an underweight rating, but warns of consensus downgrades as a result of a rising $A.


----------



## sfx (19 October 2007)

BSL on a downturn today - media manipulation here ?! Australian Financial Review had a negative article today about BSL losing $100 per tonne on sales to China....


----------



## YELNATS (19 October 2007)

bigdog said:


> *Using financial figures from calendar 2005, JP Morgan assumes an implied takeover price of $11.67 for every Bluescope share, valuing a potential deal at $8.5 billion.*



*

I wonder if BSL directors would recommend acceptance to shareholders of a takeover bid of only A$11.67 per share. BSL has been as high as $12.65 in the last 12 months. The JP Morgan 2005 figures are now 2 years old and therefore an offer of $11.67 looks a little low and may not recognise the company's potential to add further value in future years.*


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## long$$ (21 October 2007)

Does anyone understand Bluescope's China strategy. If they are losing $100/tonne (as reported in the Fin Rev, & explaining their ~4% drop in price) leading up to the Olympics, what chance do they have of improving on this?


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## sfx (22 October 2007)

I don't have the full article but in the AFR printed 19th Oct, the article went something along the lines of the following:

"Bluescope's experiment in Asia proves costly 

BlueScope Steel's investments in Asian steel product manufacturing plants have largely failed to meet expectations. The company has invested approximately $A1 billion in the plants since its sharemarket float. However, BlueScope is currently losing an estimated $A100 on each tonne of steel that it processes and sells in China. There is speculation the situation could worsen further as rising raw material prices place increasing pressure on margins."


----------



## bigdog (30 November 2007)

The market liked yesterday's ANN with SP BSL ▲ 4.44% .. $0.420 .. $9.879 

Todays MARKET MOVERS SNAPSHOT (The Age site updated hourly)											
http://markets.theage.com.au/apps/mkt/movers.ac 

Top 20 of ASX 100 Stocks											
Rises: 77 Falls: 19 Steadies: 6 Nov 29, 2007 7:00:06 PM											
__	..	___	___	_____	..	 ______ 	..	 _____ 	..	 ________ 	 
Sq	-	ASX	mv	.Chg%	..	...Chg$	..	Price$	..	Company	 
________________________________________________________________________________											
01	-	MIG 	▲	6.78%	..	$0.200	..	$3.150	..	 Macquarie Infrastructure Group  	▲
________________________________________________________________________________											
02	-	WOR 	▲	5.34%	..	$2.400	..	$47.344	..	 Worleyparsons LTD  	▲
________________________________________________________________________________											
03	-	FMG 	▲	5.32%	..	$2.750	..	$54.442	..	 Fortescue Metals Group LTD  	▲
________________________________________________________________________________											
04	-	BSL 	▲	4.44%	..	$0.420	..	$9.879	..	 Bluescope Steel LTD  	▲


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22845529-643,00.html

*BlueScope to streamline balance sheet*
Andrew Trounson | November 30, 2007

BLUESCOPE Steel's new chief executive Paul O'Malley is looking to find $200 million in balance sheet efficiencies, including property sales, to offset lost earnings from an extended maintenance shutdown of its key Port Kembla steelworks in 2009.

The 100-day shutdown of one of Port Kembla's two blast furnaces for a reline is expected to cost $100-$200 million in lost earnings before interest and tax and Mr O'Malley wants to move to compensate that by selling or leasing non-core properties, reducing inventories and cutting working capital.

"We believe there is enough cash that we can realise from the balance sheet to offset that," Mr O'Malley said.

The plan is part of Mr O'Malley's "blueprint" for BlueScope following the retirement last month of Kirby Adams.

Mr O'Malley's strategy includes promoting and developing new steel building products and "reinvigorating" the Australian business through the integration of the Smorgon steel distribution business, as well as what he calls a "stronger customer emphasis".

Mr O'Malley said he was committed to growing the Asian and North American businesses, with a focus on expanding operations and pursuing bolt-on acquisitions, rather than pursue greenfield developments.

Under Mr Adams, BlueScope built new manufacturing operations in Asia to position the company to benefit from rising steel demand in the region and Mr O'Malley now appears focused on consolidating that position. He is looking for the downstream business in Asia to grow, to pull through more products and to eventually support manufacturing expansions.

"We are certainly not moving away from our focus in either North America or Asia," he said.

But Mr O'Malley said its steel coating plants in China and Vietnam were underperforming. In China the operation was suffering from cutthroat local competition, while Vietnam was not performing as well as expected.

Mr O'Malley has appointed Charlie Elias as his successor as chief financial officer. Mr Elias is currently CFO at Linfox Logistics and will join in February. Like Mr O'Malley, Mr Elias is a former senior executive at TXU Australia.

"Charlie has domestic and international experience and has led a variety of large merger and acquisition transactions," Mr O'Malley said. "His key focus will be to drive effective capital management and to identify and pursue sustainable growth opportunities throughout our global footprint."

BlueScope said the long-term demand outlook for steel was strong, with the Middle East and Russia using more of its building products.

"Demand, we think, will be sustained for a long period of time," Mr O'Malley said.


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## dan-o (2 September 2008)

It seems no-one has been talking about this one for a while. What do people think? It seems a good way to leverage the china story, good dividend, etc...


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## deadset (2 September 2008)

I think its the best of the steel producers, and they have alot of demand from the US for their products too.

If anyone can find a graph of steel prices, I'd be very appreciative, its very hard to find on the internet it seems.

I've been going from here, but a free graph would be much better than just a daily price : http://www.steelbb.com/steelprices/

It boggles the mind that the steel price isn't reported much IMO, considering the effect on some of our companies.

I've been accumulating this stock, so I'm wary of steel price changes.

I have noticed that the commodity indexes can change without affecting steel prices, there seems to be a slight decoupling from other metal prices.

(for future reference)
Rebar world price is $1046/t today. 
BSL $9.21


----------



## cruise61 (11 October 2008)

What a great oppatunity to get into BSL cheap.

Cant believe i got in at 5.7

With a little luck they may swing a little lower and i can grab some more but hard too see that happening now after looking at US markets slight loss last night and G7 measures being put in place 

Monday will tell :0)

Either way im in for the long haul


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## michael_selway (11 October 2008)

cruise61 said:


> What a great oppatunity to get into BSL cheap.
> 
> Cant believe i got in at 5.7
> 
> ...




Hm yeah not bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 79.7 98.6 96.9 100.5 
DPS 49.0 50.0 49.5 51.0 *







thx

MS


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## cruise61 (14 October 2008)

These shares should be sitting much higher ,they are a very strong company with awsome npt and expected increas this year.

Might be one to keep a very close eye on exp now :0)

Just a thought 


Roll on tuesday let the ride continue


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## cruise61 (15 October 2008)

cruise61 said:


> These shares should be sitting much higher ,they are a very strong company with awsome npt and expected increas this year.
> 
> Might be one to keep a very close eye on exp now :0)
> 
> ...




Full financials out today ,not a bad effort at all.
Shares down again today but they will bounce back


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## Sean K (15 October 2008)

cruise61 said:


> Roll on tuesday let the ride continue



Yep, off 2.4% while the rest of the market did ok.



cruise61 said:


> Full financials out today ,not a bad effort at all.
> Shares down again today but they will bounce back



They may be off because of the likely downturn in demand from China next year.

Sounds like they'll be OK in the first half though.


*BlueScope warns of steel demand drop *
October 15, 2008 

AUSTRALIA'S largest steelmaker, BlueScope Steel, has forecast a strong first half, but warns that the market turmoil may affect demand.

Chief executive Paul O'Malley said the company expected a good 2008-09 first half, but the high cost of raw materials would affect its Australian business. 

"The ongoing crisis in the financial markets may affect funding of commercial and industrial projects, dampening demand, although the weaker US dollar has provided some boost to manufacturing exports from the US," Mr O'Malley said in the company's annual report. 

European and Asian steelmakers are reducing output on weaker demand. *Four major Chinese mills -- accounting for 15 per cent of the country's capacity -- will cut October crude steel output by 20 per cent. *

Mr O'Malley said demand for BlueScope's products remained solid, but the residential segment continued to be "soft". BlueScope closed down 14c at $5.66. 


Gav was asking how just 4 steel mills lowering output was going to be significant in China when there are hundreds of them. I guess they must be pretty big one's and perhaps a sign others will follow.


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## dan-o (16 October 2008)

This continues to fall...
Do people think they can maintain their dividend yield next year? getting close to 10%FF at this price...


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## cruise61 (17 October 2008)

The current share price does not reflect on bluescopes forcast for 09 

All steel related industries are feeling the bight but Bluescpe had a nice profit 08 and are in a very good position to ride out the storm.

Personally i think they are way under valued as lets face it people will always want new cars and houses its the nature of the beast to want what your mates got ,or if my neighbor can afford a new car i can .

They are AUST biggest steel maker exporter , they have made a 10 year deal with BHP for ore at below market rates ,so that alone says to me they will be around well after the meltdown is over.

I am more than content to sit on my shares for a year or 2 and watch them grow back to a fair and decent price and i may even increase my portfolio

Some good deals out there at the moment


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## cruise61 (20 October 2008)

Been pondering over this one a bit not sure just yet ,lets hope i dont leave run late ,this was an article fri 17th oct

(BSL.AX 


BLUESCOPE STEEL20 October,200820/10/2008 05:05 Sydney, Australia.
Price Change % Change 
4.400 -0.200 -4.350% 

Company overview
Real-time quote
BSL.AX , 4.400, -0.200, -4.350%) - BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Credit Suisse rates (BSL.AX 


BLUESCOPE STEEL20 October,200820/10/2008 05:05 Sydney, Australia.
Price Change % Change 
4.400 -0.200 -4.350% 

Company overview
Real-time quote
BSL.AX , 4.400, -0.200, -4.350%) as Outperform - The broker notes there are rumours the group's US operations are cutting production and it will look for an update on this at next month's AGM. It makes no changes to its numbers on this basis but has cut its forecasts to reflect commodity steel price weakness. Despite the earnings changes there is no change to the broker's Outperform rating or $8.00 price target.

Makes it hard to go past when it sits half that  decisions decisions


----------



## chops_a_must (20 October 2008)

I was at a family friends steel business on the weekend, and they reckon things are looking pretty bad.

They've had a great run over the last few years here in Perth, but apparently the last 2 weeks have been absolutely shocking. Things drying up from all ends.

I was seriously looking at BSL before I heard that. Probably wont be now...


----------



## cruise61 (20 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I was at a family friends steel business on the weekend, and they reckon things are looking pretty bad.
> 
> They've had a great run over the last few years here in Perth, but apparently the last 2 weeks have been absolutely shocking. Things drying up from all ends.
> 
> I was seriously looking at BSL before I heard that. Probably wont be now...




Yeh agreed i think the last 2 weeks have been shocking for all off us 

I think with the new first home buyers grant increase that should help the industry a bit.

Guess the good thing about bluescope is their stabilty in the market and there cash flow .

Could be a good long termer?

Guess time will tell


----------



## kingyuri (11 December 2008)

So this one has fallen to a 12 month low today after the share placement with a loss of value of over 25%.  This captures the capital raising, and I expect the resignation of the Exec - so to me this looks like an interesting one to watch.  Would expect it to bounce back a little like RIO - could be money to make in the short term if you're willing the gamble!!


----------



## Stomper (12 December 2008)

kingyuri said:


> I expect the resignation of the Exec




Which Exec is going to resign and why........................................?

Not sure you can place the blame for the share price fall on the head of any executive - given that it was pumped up on the back of demand exceeding supply and a positive growth outlook.

The collapse of global demand due to the Credit Crisis can hardly be blamed on these executives. I'm more interested in how the BSL Executives are handling the crisis and are they the best ones placed to protect shareholder value under these circumstances.

The ones that should be held accountable are those in the financial community who have been negligent or at worst, fraudulent.


----------



## kingyuri (12 December 2008)

Straight from bluescopesteel.com:

BlueScope Steel today advised that Mr Paul Rizzo, has resigned for personal reasons unrelated to the company. The resignation is effective from today.

BlueScope Steel Chairman, Mr Graham Kraehe AO, said the company's succession plan had been for Mr Doug Jukes to take over from Mr Rizzo, as Chair of the company's Audit and Risk Committee. This appointment is effective from today.

Never good news... hope there's nothing untoward..


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## alphaman (12 December 2008)

Stomper said:


> The collapse of global demand due to the Credit Crisis can hardly be blamed on these executives.



True. But in the same vein, why did the execs take credit when BSL "was pumped up on the back of demand exceeding supply and a positive growth outlook"? 

With so much literature on performance measurement and compensation, you would have expected the directors to have it figured out by now. But it seems that all the directors do are making sure their mates get paid well. And they complain about the burden of complying with corporate governance.


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## white_crane (14 December 2008)

There has been huge volume on BSL in the last two days.  Might be worth a punt for a short term gain.


----------



## M34N (25 February 2009)

Another stock I've been watching closely is BSL. This one closed today at a record low, that is in the 7 years or so it has been listed it has never seen this price. Will be interesting to see where it finds a floor.

Today's price action was very disturbing, and seeing it go from +4% at the open to -7.5% at the close says a lot. Either it rebounds hard from here or we could see some selling well under the $2.00 range. Waiting to see some signs of a bottom with solid volume before entering a long position. Doesn't look like there are many short positions open on BSL either so it most likely seems to be long-term investors piling out.

Been under performing a lot over the past couple weeks. I understand their profit results released the other day were pretty ordinary, but did they warrant these falls? Anyone else watching this or have an opinion?


----------



## M34N (26 April 2009)

So another month or two have passed since it bottomed at around $2.05, and it still looks a bit shaky IMO. Watching the EMA it looks to be narrowing and seems (slightly) more bullish than before, and the volume has been on the increase slowly since then. Seems to be trending down in this channel for the past 6 months and hitting lower highs wit lower lows.

Have traded this one a couple times in the past few weeks for a few $, and has interestingly been traveling mostly sideways in the past month while the rest of the market has mostly gone higher. Says a lot about these types of stocks, doesn't it? Also noticed a couple brokers in the weekend papers recommending a sell on BSL and OST, a sign to buy in? Reckon it could bounce a little from here for some reason, mostly a gut feeling, but $3.00 level would be a serious level of resistance. Looks like a narrowing trading band with a bias downwards, so either another big drop from here or a breakout to the upside? Watching eagerly on this one.


----------



## ands (29 April 2009)

Well she was being sold down yesterday and it is continuing today. No news out. What's going on? There seems to be no support!


----------



## Taltan (29 April 2009)

Looks to me like another share dilution scheme is on the way. After the last raising at $3.10 prior to the release of bad results investors probably aren't exactly in awe of management


----------



## ands (29 April 2009)

BSL.AX , 2.290, -0.200, -8.030%) dropped 4.8 percent to A$2.37 and its main rival OneSteel (OST.AX , 2.090, -0.180, -7.930%) fell 4.4 percent to A$2.17, partly on worries about the costs of a carbon trading scheme due to start in Australia next year. A report in The Australian newspaper said BlueScope chairman Graham Kraehe attacked the continued commitment to an emissions trading plan and said it could cost thousands of jobs.

This might explain it...


----------



## M34N (29 April 2009)

I'll be looking to buy in on BSL at somewhere around 2.00, if the trend down continues, I would be expecting a solid bounce off that price. Unless of course the rumours of a share selling scheme are true and it is much lower than being factored in at the moment. I've heard other rumours floating around about BSL but won't speculate on it as the forum does not permit that, but they sound interesting and it has caught my attention!

ands; I don't think it's the carbon scheme affecting the price this much, the share placement scheme seems to be the catalyst here for it IMO, it started yesterday before this report was published.


----------



## johannlo (29 April 2009)

I think if you go long term anything below 3 is a decent buy. I got in at 2.60 and don't regret it even with today's savaging. 

Of course if you are a trader then obviously theres lots of better ways to make money quicker. But for a relatively low risk, long term pick BSL looks pretty good in my eyes (way better than OST). P/E of 2 for our biggest steelmaker and distributor is insane.


----------



## ands (29 April 2009)

M34N said:


> I'll be looking to buy in on BSL at somewhere around 2.00, if the trend down continues, I would be expecting a solid bounce off that price.




Hope you don't get your $2 target...  bought yesterday at $2.54 and have endured 2 days of pain. Just glad I took my profits when I held it from $8 to $11.22. Still a quality company, will be good long term, but will be interesting to see their next results report...


----------



## Albi (29 April 2009)

hi
After reading recommandations and watching everyday lower to lowest, I sold my stock in big loss at 2.60. But thanks god I sold it earlier otherwise for not selling. I feel it will go around 2$ or might be less.


----------



## ands (5 May 2009)

Sold yesterday at $2.565 (emissions scheme, debt, rumours of a spp, all became too much) and now they go into a trading halt and announce a 1 for 1 SPP plan offer at $1.55. Does not look good for current SP. 40% discount! Maybe I can jump in again soon.


----------



## captluthra (5 May 2009)

How do you think its going to open on thursday. Up or Down. And after 1 for 1 offer how is the stock price going to be impacted.


----------



## MrBurns (5 May 2009)

I made a small loss on them a few weeks ago, everything else has gone up and they still go backwards, another Charlie Aitken special tip


----------



## Taltan (5 May 2009)

First I cried, than I googled and your right $1.55. I sure am sorry I got involved with this one.............


----------



## M34N (5 May 2009)

captluthra said:


> How do you think its going to open on thursday. Up or Down. And after 1 for 1 offer how is the stock price going to be impacted.




Hmmm, $2.00 open would be a random guess from me, but I wouldn't bet on it to be honest. That would be a 20% fall, otherwise I'd say even as low as $1.80 (-30%) or beyond wouldn't be ruled out, I think OneSteel had a fall close to that when they got out of their trading halt so I would price in something large. It's lowest price ever is $2.05 or thereabouts in March so I'm unsure if that price will provide any support, it depends really.

I read their capital raising plan and it looks interesting indeed, one of the rumours I did hear about the capital raising being under $2.00 have been confirmed, but $1.55 is IMO a very sharp discount considering they already done some capital raising from $4 to $3 a while back. Why not seek some foreign investment instead of share placements, one has to ask?


----------



## alphaman (5 May 2009)

This is actually good timing.

BSL has high debt and poor cash flows, a deadly combo. Without this market rally BSL's share price would have been under $2 anyway, so this is not that big a discount. Yes EPS gets diluted, but that's a very cheap price to buy survival.


----------



## Real1ty (5 May 2009)

They have also decided to suspend their dividend



> Consistent with BlueScope Steel’s other actions to strengthen its balance sheet and maintain financial flexibility in light of current market conditions, BlueScope Steel does not believe it would be appropriate to propose a final dividend for the year ending 30 June 2009.




A lot of research is needed before entering into this stock imho.

I'm not a holder.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (5 May 2009)

Page 5 of the presentation guys...

"Consistent with BlueScope Steel’s other actions to preserve capital in light of current market conditions BlueScope Steel does not believe it would be appropriate to propose a dividend for the half year ending 30 June 2009"

Noice. (I watched Borat on the weekend)

Cheers
Sir O


----------



## johannlo (5 May 2009)

Unless you're trapped like me (bought @ 2.62).

Holding on for the long term, still with some of the earlier posters re: undervalued in the long term. Have to think about 1.55, even with dilution it still looks pretty darned cheap

But yes I would much rather make quick 10-20% small-mid cap hay whilst the sun is still shining.... one for the lessons book.


----------



## captluthra (5 May 2009)

$1.55 1 for 1 isnt a bad deal after all. Two shares at $3.10 and if the stock trades at $1.8 then its a sweet gain of $.25 per share.

Correct me if I am wrong.


----------



## ands (5 May 2009)

captluthra said:


> $1.55 1 for 1 isnt a bad deal after all. Two shares at $3.10 and if the stock trades at $1.8 then its a sweet gain of $.25 per share.
> 
> Correct me if I am wrong.




It's might be an okay deal for the shares you buy through the SPP but what about the shares people have bought from $2-$12. Not to forget that this is a massive dillution of shares (if everyone takes it up that is). I'm sure they wished they had raised money when it was around $11-$12...


----------



## oldblue (5 May 2009)

Note that it's not a SPP but a non-renounceable pro-rata one for one issue.
The big discount means that a shareholder who doesn't take it up will be heavily diluted so there's a big incentive to find the wherewithall, even if one has to sell something else to do so.


----------



## captluthra (5 May 2009)

ands said:


> It's might be an okay deal for the shares you buy through the SPP but what about the shares people have bought from $2-$12. Not to forget that this is a massive dillution of shares (if everyone takes it up that is). I'm sure they wished they had raised money when it was around $11-$12...





Thats what I am saying even if the new stock reduces to 1.55 still now you got two (1 for 1) at 3.10 v/s earlier two at 5.00.

Am I overlooking something......


----------



## oldblue (5 May 2009)

captluthra said:


> Thats what I am saying even if the new stock reduces to 1.55 still now you got two (1 for 1) at 3.10 v/s earlier two at 5.00.
> 
> Am I overlooking something......




Correct as far as that goes.

Where the downside comes in is that to get your new share at $1-55 you have had to buy another ( one for one issue) at a price presumably well north of $1-55, depending on when you bought, of course.
The big discount to $1-55, and the one for one ratio results in the heavy dilution that we've been talking about. And, of course, there's no guarantees as to what the market will value the heavily diluted shares at, after the issue. One would hope for a better price than $1-55 but how much better is a bit of a guess, IMO.


----------



## captluthra (5 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> Correct as far as that goes.
> 
> Where the downside comes in is that to get your new share at $1-55 you have had to buy another ( one for one issue) at a price presumably well north of $1-55, depending on when you bought, of course.
> The big discount to $1-55, and the one for one ratio results in the heavy dilution that we've been talking about. And, of course, there's no guarantees as to what the market will value the heavily diluted shares at, after the issue. One would hope for a better price than $1-55 but how much better is a bit of a guess, IMO.





If that be the case shouldnt we expect a lot of stock movement on thursday as the investors will buy in hope of doubling their stocks for only 1.55 each.


----------



## skc (5 May 2009)

captluthra said:


> If that be the case shouldnt we expect a lot of stock movement on thursday as the investors will buy in hope of doubling their stocks for only 1.55 each.




I think in most instances the rights are given to only existing shareholders (before the halt). That is, if you bought on Thursday open you won't be able to purchase at $1.55. 

The way to think about the new share price would be... total number of shares increase 2 fold (assuming everyone takes up their rights, which is unlikely). So EPS falls by ~50%, but each new share still has cash of $1.55/2.

So a possible price is $2.57/2 + $1.55/2 = $2.06, assuming market applies the same PE ratio to the stock. The EPS is probably reduced with the latest market update, but the risk of BSL running into debt problem is reduced, plus they would save some interest costs. So my punt is that a fair opening price is somewhere ~$2.


----------



## ozbecool (6 May 2009)

*BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*

*POINT1: *
First of all : this placement shows that BLS management is really BAD : 
- the offer is almost a black mail - buy more at $1.55 or if you don't then you will be hit by an instant loss. Why didn't they say offer is 5-10% discount to the market price and offer is eg. "3 for 5) ? They didn't because they want to FORCE shareholders to buy more.
- didn't those CEOs, MDs etc from BSL board know WHAT their debt structure was ? They created it !!! 
- W.Buffett places companies with such a poor management into a disposal bin.

* POINT2:* RE: the rights are given to only existing shareholders .... * 
The offer doc says that RECORD DATE for retail holders is FRI 8 May, 7pm, so entitlements will be taken as of that date.

Similar thing was on 17Apr09 with OST; 
- offer was "2 for 5"
- and OST price at the time when the offer was announced was : $2.56. 
- then on ex-entitlement date (20Apr09) price went down to $2.23. 
But note that the equivalent theoretical ex-entitl. price for OST was : $2.34 [ =(2*$1.8+5*$2.56)/(2+5) ]. And that above $2.34 agrees with own OST estimate of the price. 

But on 20Apr09 (the first day after the entitlement date) market closed at $2.23 i.e. approx 5% below theoret. price.

So we could expect that BSL will be trading near $1.96 or so [ = $2.06 (theoret. ex-ent. price) * 0.95 ].


POINT3: 
But who knows at what price it will be trading on 7 May and 8 May as those days BSL stock is to trade as pre-entitlement ? Probably in between $2.0 and $2.5. But here we might have an interesting phenomena  : 
- OST did NOT have those 2 days of pre-entitlement as BSL is to have on 7/8 May.
- and BSL has those 2 days, therefore this offers a 'deal' : << buy me now at any price below $2.57 and if the ex-entitl. price on/after 10 May is above $2.06 then you will have an instant gain>>  So it is a kind of an CFD/options trading.

 POINT4: 
Consider this break-even scenario:
- you keep you shares till Mon 10 May (or buy some on 7/8 May if you do not have any yet)
- this way you are entitled to buy "new shares" at $1.55
- then you sell on Mon at - lets assume that market will settle at $2.06 per share 
- when you become the owner (~ 2-3 weeks from now) of the "new shares" you sell them - for simplicity lets assume that market price will still be $2.06 (but probably they will be higher - as OST are now).
- this way you paid: $2.57 + $1.55 =  $4.12 for 2 shares
- then you sell at $2.06 (on 10May) + $2.06 (~ 20-25 May) = $4.12

WHICH MEANS THAT : 
If you bought in the past or you can buy shares on 7/8 May significantly lower than @ $2.57 / ea and then sell them at or above $2.06 after 9 May then you will have some profit (trading fees excluded) 

But : why bother buying BSL now with so many 'ifs' when there are so many better opportunities in the market ? 

People who are somehow in a trouble are those who already have BSL shares. 7/8 May might offer them some 'cut losses' exit opportunities IF THE PRICE hits $2.30 or more.



*


----------



## Taltan (6 May 2009)

Interesting to note that the shares went from 2.39 to 2.57 on Monday. People on the inside knew about the raising that day so it looks like they were buying to ensure their 1.55 entitlement as per Point 3 made by ozbecool. Thus the market didn't really value BSL at 2.57 prior to the announcement but really somewhere between 2.39-2.57. 

Lets say 2.5 and now the number of shares are doubled so we go to 1.25. Of course the market will like the debt reduction and not everyone will take up the SPP, nevertheless once the fun and games of Thu & Fri are over I dont see the stock trading above $2. Hopefully $1.96

Point one regarding amangement is of course also valid


----------



## M34N (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



ozbecool said:


> First of all...




Agree with a lot of what's said here, but you're assuming the price will settle at around $2.06 or thereabouts, which is the main argument in your case. I personally wouldn't be shocked to see it well under $2.00 level.

But otherwise I am unsure as to when people are entitled to receive part of the SPP, is it on the record date or do you already need to be on the books to receive it? Reading their restructure plan yesterday I wasn't sure of this either, but assumed by record date you needed to be already settled by your broker and on BSL's book's by 08/05/09?

Either way, I'm expecting a massive swing in this stock come tomorrow, will be watching like a hawk for any massive move down, and I think any dip below $2.00 like you said may provide a nice opportunity to buy - even for the longer term (one of the first time's I've thought about a long-term buy in a while to be honest). This is most likely the last buyback they will have so I expect the price to settle from here, but that's my best guess!


----------



## oldblue (6 May 2009)

This is most likely the last buyback they will have so I expect the price to settle from here, but that's my best guess! QUOTE.

Unfortunately, a SPP is the exact opposite of a buyback but I agree with the sentiment ( if intended) that this is likely to be their last capital raising for a while.
There's a good chance that the SP will gradually recover somewhat once the dust settles as has happened with a few other SPP's recently, eg TSE, FBU,CSR etc.


----------



## alphaman (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



ozbecool said:


> *POINT1: *
> 
> - didn't those CEOs, MDs etc from BSL board know WHAT their debt structure was ? They created it !!!
> - W.Buffett places companies with such a poor management into a disposal bin.



I agree. But when you are the CEO of a public company, and you see your competitors loading up debt and getting rewarded by the market, you would probably have done the same. In fact BSL probably would not have gone up to $12 without the debt leverage.


----------



## skc (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



M34N said:


> But otherwise I am unsure as to when people are entitled to receive part of the SPP, is it on the record date or do you already need to be on the books to receive it? Reading their restructure plan yesterday I wasn't sure of this either, but assumed by record date you needed to be already settled by your broker and on BSL's book's by 08/05/09?




Typically the Ex date is 3 days before the record date. This is the same as in dividends. So I actually didn't think shares purchased on open tomorrow will be entitled to the rights. I could be wrong of course...


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## captluthra (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



skc said:


> Typically the Ex date is 3 days before the record date. This is the same as in dividends. So I actually didn't think shares purchased on open tomorrow will be entitled to the rights. I could be wrong of course...





As per the info available the ex date is 7PM on Friday ie 08/05/2009...How do u think its going to impact the price on thursday and friday.....


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## Skip1jz (6 May 2009)

My understanding reading the print at the end of the offer document is you will only be entitled to the offer if you held the shares before the trading halt.


----------



## skc (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



captluthra said:


> As per the info available the ex date is 7PM on Friday ie 08/05/2009...How do u think its going to impact the price on thursday and friday.....




Where do you see the ex date bing 8 May? Note difference between Ex date and record date.

As stated before, ex-date typically 3 days prior to record date. I guess to allow for ASX settlement / processes etc.

As to impact - already analysed above. Simple put the first traded price is likely to actually be the ex-entitlement price, which some believe to be in the area of $2.


----------



## captluthra (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



skc said:


> Where do you see the ex date bing 8 May? Note difference between Ex date and record date.
> 
> As stated before, ex-date typically 3 days prior to record date. I guess to allow for ASX settlement / processes etc.
> 
> As to impact - already analysed above. Simple put the first traded price is likely to actually be the ex-entitlement price, which some believe to be in the area of $2.




Record date as per the prospectus is 1900 hrs 08 May 2009....Now the record date is established by an issuer of a security for the purpose of determining the holders who are entitled to receive a dividend or distribution. So I am making the assumption on the definition above.


----------



## oldblue (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - 1 for 1 offer*



captluthra said:


> Record date as per the prospectus is 1900 hrs 08 May 2009....Now the record date is established by an issuer of a security for the purpose of determining the holders who are entitled to receive a dividend or distribution. So I am making the assumption on the definition above.




Any shares purchased tomorrow won't be settled for until Tuesday 12 May ( T+3).
Entitlements will be calculated by the registry as at their *records* of 8 May.
My pick is that the shares trade " ex entitlement" tomorrow.


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## ozbecool (6 May 2009)

*BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*

There is a possibility that it is as you guys say (i.e. that the entitlement is similar to the "EX-DIV vs DIV RECORD DATE"). OST offer was clear about this. So I emailed BSL today and when I get the answer I will post it here ASAP. 

If tomorrow BSL is to trade "ex-entitlement" then my guess for the average day price is $1.95 ... $2.05. Low institutional offer coverage (to be known by tomorrow morning) would move the price up I guess.


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## ozbecool (6 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*

I have just received an answer from BSL - quote:
<< If someone buys stock tomorrow may 7 then they would not be eligible to participate. >>

I hope that the above info will prove quite valuable for all people thinking of buying in order to be able *"to participate"* in the offer. 

The above answer from BSL office also confirms that, in regards to _entitlement date_, BSL offer is identical to Apr 2009 OST offer : i.e. * that to be eligible you must have purchased the stock before the trading halt. *.


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## captluthra (7 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*



ozbecool said:


> I have just received an answer from BSL - quote:
> << If someone buys stock tomorrow may 7 then they would not be eligible to participate. >>
> 
> I hope that the above info will prove quite valuable for all people thinking of buying in order to be able *"to participate"* in the offer.
> ...




So would that mean I can sell my stocks today and still be eligible to get 1 for 1, just because I held them at the time of halt


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*



captluthra said:


> So would that mean I can sell my stocks today and still be eligible to get 1 for 1, just because I held them at the time of halt




Correct. 
And judging from the volume traded so far today, there's been a fair bit of that going on.


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## captluthra (7 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*



ozbecool said:


> I have just received an answer from BSL - quote:
> << If someone buys stock tomorrow may 7 then they would not be eligible to participate. >>
> 
> I hope that the above info will prove quite valuable for all people thinking of buying in order to be able *"to participate"* in the offer.
> ...




What do you make out of the stock trading at $2.25....beats me...we were expecting 1.96-2.06??? Is is going to rise further or fall from here...I called the bluescope about the record date clarification...and they had no clear answer....


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

captluthra said:


> Is is going to rise further or fall from here...




That's for the market to determine.
Depends on market conditions generally and BSL specific issues. Interesting to note, though, that several companies that have made heavily discounted issues in the recent past have seen a gradual, moderate increase in their SP once the dust has settled and their financing becomes secured, eg TSE, FBU, NPX etc.


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## ozbecool (7 May 2009)

*BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*

RE: I called the bluescope about the record date clarification...and they had no clear answer 
I also called them just now (10:30 Sydney time) (ph # : 1300-855-998) and I asked two questions re two hypothetical situations (Q stands for QUESTION, A stands for ANSWER):

*
HS1: *
my Q: If I have no BSL shares today (7May) and I buy some now and then hold them till at least next week - would I be eligible for the 1-1 offer ? 
BSL A: No - you would NOT be eligible because it will take 3 trading days (standard 3T+ trading arrangements on ASX) for you to become the BSL  shareholder 'on records'

*HS2:* 
my Q: If I already have BSL shares (bought long time ago) and sell all of them today (7May) - would I be eligible for the 1-1 offer ? 
BSL A: No - you would NOT be eligible because you will not be on the share register on 8 May , 7pm

So I asked BSL another question - re (HS2) above : 
my Q: why the 3T+ is not being applied to the SELL situation and it is applied to BUY situation ? 
BSL A: you have to talk to your broker to get the answer to that !!!

*Can you believe this ?* And that was the answer from their phone SUPPORT line established to help people with this 1-1 offer !!!

So effectively my interpretation of the current situation is this :
7/8 May are the days 'in vein' - i.e. :
- if you own shares you have to hold on to them if you want to be eligible for the 1-1 offer
- if you don't own any BSL shares now then don't bother buying this week because you will probably pay more than you would next week. And there is no way you might become eligible for the offer anyway.

and the current BSL $2.20 price mark is coming from misinformation regarding the above. I bet price will settle at or below $2.05


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## ozbecool (7 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*

Dear OLDBLUE - re your post @10:20 today: 
Your answer is INCORRECT - see my today's prev post @10:59 for more details. Or call BSL on 1300-855-998 and find out yourself. 

This whole situation is crazy - they should have clearly stated something like this: if you buy and hold shares by the end of 8 May 09 then you are eligible - full stop - no matter what the 'record' date would be


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## johannlo (7 May 2009)

If you're a holder, how do you actually exercise your options e.g. is some paperwork coming in the mail?


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## Gamblor (7 May 2009)

I'm new to all this but there is no way I would be buying at the current price - they've basically just halved the value through this raising have they not?

I don't know much about the share market but I wouldn't be interested until well under 2.00


----------



## oldblue (7 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - offer entitlement date*



ozbecool said:


> Dear OLDBLUE - re your post @10:20 today:
> Your answer is INCORRECT - see my today's prev post @10:59 for more details. Or call BSL on 1300-855-998 and find out yourself.
> 
> This whole situation is crazy - they should have clearly stated something like this: if you buy and hold shares by the end of 8 May 09 then you are eligible - full stop - no matter what the 'record' date would be





No need to get all coloured!

The shares are being traded "ex entitlement" today.
This means that the buyer doesn't get the entitlement, the seller *does* because settlement doesn't take place until 12 May. In the meantime, the seller is "on record" as the holder of the shares.
Anyone contemplating selling should, of course, check with their broker.


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> If you're a holder, how do you actually exercise your options e.g. is some paperwork coming in the mail?




Yes.

It's not strictly "options" but a non-renounceable entitlement.
Amounts to about the same thing though.


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## johannlo (7 May 2009)

Thanks

Also re: Gamblor, no the price shouldn't halve, the back-of-envelope estimate is more like

(Price before announcement + price at offer) /2 = (2.57+1.55)/2 = ~2 

So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down. QUOTE.

That's pretty much it!

If you don't take up the issue you're going to be heavily diluted so there's a big incentive to take up the shares.

While noting the theoretical price ( say, $2-06) I wouldn't place too much reliance on this working out in practice, as today's trading shows.


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## alphaman (7 May 2009)

Normall you can sell today, but it probably doesn't hurt to wait after May 8. This bear rally looks invincible right now.

Interesting that BSL decided to underwrite the retail offer too. More desperate than I thought.


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

Interesting that BSL decided to underwrite the retail offer too. QUOTE.

Underwriting of these issues is pretty much standard practice these days.
No-one wants to risk an under-subscribed issue in a volatile market.


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## Gamblor (7 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> Thanks
> 
> Also re: Gamblor, no the price shouldn't halve, the back-of-envelope estimate is more like
> 
> ...




Oh ok - That makes todays trade seem slightly more reasonable - still to high for me to jump in though.


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## stoxclimber (7 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> Interesting that BSL decided to underwrite the retail offer too. QUOTE.
> 
> Underwriting of these issues is pretty much standard practice these days.
> No-one wants to risk an under-subscribed issue in a volatile market.




It's pretty unusual to underwrite the retail component of the offer - my guess is a couple of the instos were willing to subunderwrite the retail component and BSL wanted all the $.


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## MACCA350 (7 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> Thanks
> So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down



I'm not happy about that at all I had no intention of putting any more into BSL

cheers


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## Taltan (7 May 2009)

Am I missing something here. On Monday the shares opened at 2.39. On Tuesday they announce a dilution whereby any shareholder can double their shares on a one for one basis at 1.55 (or just do nothing and get diluted by almost half) and now ex-date the stock is trading at 2.42.

My understanding of the SPP is that lets say you own 100 shares you will have the opportunity to buy another 100 at 1.55. If you have 500,000 you can buy another 500,000 at 1.55 etc etc. Now either I don't understand the SPP or BSL has had a great week


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## bonkerrs (7 May 2009)

Please help me confirm my understanding.

I bought 2,000 shares @ 2.70 (11.04.2009) = cost $5,400
Then another 2,000 shares @ 2.60 (15.04.2009) = cost $5,200
Total = $10,600.00

If I don't participate and take the offer my shares will be worth 4,000 @ $1.55 straight away and if I take it up I can have 8,000 @ $1.55 (paying for another 4,000 @ 1.55).

Is that it?


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> Please help me confirm my understanding.
> 
> I bought 2,000 shares @ 2.70 (11.04.2009) = cost $5,400
> Then another 2,000 shares @ 2.60 (15.04.2009) = cost $5,200
> ...





You have 4,000 shares at a cost of $10,600.

You get an entitlement to 4,000 at $1-55  = $6,200.

You will then have 8,000 at a total cost to you of $16,800.

= an average cost of $2-10.

If you don't participate you'll have your original 4,000 shares at an average cost of $2-65 and your entitlement to the 4,000 @ $1-55 will lapse and be gratefully received by the underwriters.

If I were you and I could afford it I'd be taking up the 4,000 @ $1-55!


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## johannlo (7 May 2009)

What the heck is going on? So much for the 2 dollar target price... $2.45 at close. 

Now pls aussie post give me my SPP forms


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## oldblue (7 May 2009)

Taltan said:


> Am I missing something here. On Monday the shares opened at 2.39. On Tuesday they announce a dilution whereby any shareholder can double their shares on a one for one basis at 1.55 (or just do nothing and get diluted by almost half) and now ex-date the stock is trading at 2.42.
> 
> My understanding of the SPP is that lets say you own 100 shares you will have the opportunity to buy another 100 at 1.55. If you have 500,000 you can buy another 500,000 at 1.55 etc etc. Now either I don't understand the SPP or BSL has had a great week




Well, it's not a SPP but a pro rata entitlement issue but other than that you understand perfectly!

Mr Market has decided, at least for the moment, that BSL is a steal at $1-55 and has bid up the price accordingly.
Financing is assured ( underwritten) and the market breathes a sigh of relief.
See post #211 in this thread.


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## bonkerrs (7 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> You have 4,000 shares at a cost of $10,600.
> 
> You get an entitlement to 4,000 at $1-55  = $6,200.
> 
> ...



Sorry, I don't completely get it  - I have the right to buy 4,000 @1.55 and it will then be worth whatever the BSL market price will be?!!


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## alphaman (7 May 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> Sorry, I don't completely get it  - I have the right to buy 4,000 @1.55 and it will then be worth whatever the BSL market price will be?!!



That's correct. After you get the new shares BSL's price can be anywhere between 0 to infinity. 

But you can always sell the 4000 shares you already own to lock in a profit now.


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## johannlo (7 May 2009)

Unless there is a huge amount of profit taking your new shares will likely not be below 1.55 when your options become effective.

The next few days will sure be interesting


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## bonkerrs (7 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> It's appears to be a statutory requirement related to restrictions on companies dealing in their own shares.
> As you can see from the miniscule number of shares involved, it is extremely unlikely to have any effect on the SP!



Ta oldblue and ta for the BSL answer too!! : too short?



alphaman said:


> That's correct. After you get the new shares BSL's price can be anywhere between 0 to infinity.
> 
> But you can always sell the 4000 shares you already own to lock in a profit now.



Has it been confirmed that you can do this and still receive the offer? I'm in to buy more BSL at 1.55



johannlo said:


> Unless there is a huge amount of profit taking your new shares will likely not be below 1.55 when your options become effective.
> 
> The next few days will sure be interesting



Historically - What kind of reactions usually happen with these situations?


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## my03 (8 May 2009)

Hey guys, quick question, ive been keeping my eye on bsl so does ths represent good value for someone getting in now or isnt it worth it if you're not entitles to the 1:1 trade at 1.55?


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## oldblue (8 May 2009)

We're starting to get into deep water here. Every situation is different and market conditions, which can change quickly, have a big bearing on what might happen.
But see post #211 in this thread.


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## ozbecool (8 May 2009)

*BSL - 1 for 1 offer - entitlements vs buy/sell*



bonkerrs said:


> Has it been confirmed that you can do this and still receive the offer? I'm in to buy more BSL at 1.55




Re post #231 and #233:
Be CAREFUL with this - see my post #212 - even BSL support phone line (13-13-44) does NOT know the 100% answer to the Q: "if I buy on 08 May - will I be entitled". The lady told me that PROBABLY one will not be entitled. 

This uncertainty is in my opinion one of the reasons that the stock trades near $2.4 instead of $2.0 mark. And on Mon 11 May there will be : a big profit taking / account reconciliation for those that : have N shares + will opt for the offer for another N shares but at the same time want to keep N (not 2*N) shares for future - they will sell their N shares as they will get the N back in a few weeks time for $1.55. And this "N" selling will be a strong (even though probably not long lasting) down pressure on price. 

As per post #211 - stock will probably recover in coming weeks / months and start climbing up considering the following:
- 'improved' debt position of the company and lowered gearing 
- very low PRICE/BOOK VALUE of ~ 0.5 (book value as on Jul 08 was around $5).
- low P/E ratio of ~ 5.5 (in this industry peers avg P/E is 10-11)

And remember - it is a well known approach (vide W.Buffett, even though his methods are not as good as others - eg. Ed Seykota) - if you think that the company is a good company and you can get it for a very good price then all you have to do is patiently wait and you will be rewarded for your patience.


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## jono1887 (8 May 2009)

So did you have to be holding the stock on Tuesday to be able to get the offer at 1.55?? Because I just bought it on Thursday at 2.24.... and when will this go through? Will the stock drop below $2 now after the dillution occurs??


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## nawshus (8 May 2009)

BSL doesn't look like it's heading in the right direction. What do long-term holders feel about this stock?


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## oldblue (9 May 2009)

jono1887 said:


> So did you have to be holding the stock on Tuesday to be able to get the offer at 1.55?? Because I just bought it on Thursday at 2.24.... and when will this go through? Will the stock drop below $2 now after the dillution occurs??




There are different opinions expressed on this point on this thread as you will see if you read the last few days.
I maintain that the shares traded "ex entitlement" after the tading halt, ie you *don't* get the entitlement offer.
Personally, I wouldn't have been buying at that time without getting a clear opinion on the point from my broker.


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## The_Bman (11 May 2009)

Interesting this isn't in the ASX news: Bluescope wins $20m Navy contract

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2566382.htm?section=justin

Have to be happy with a $1.55 parcel here.


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## johannlo (11 May 2009)

That's nice and all but considering that in the good times NPAT was over 800 million p/a, 20 million is a drop in the tank.

still better than another share dilution


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## johannlo (14 May 2009)

Here we go the predicted 2 dollar level.... 

Glad I didn't get too cheeky when it was holding at the low 220s earlier this week!

Interesting (if depressing) article on commodity prices in today's Australian



> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25479766-5005200,00.html




Read somewhere else (sorry can't remember) on how prices are now back to 2006 levels but in 2006 obviously the outlook was much rosier. Food for thought esp for those who went long on small-mid cap miners in the last few months...


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## M34N (14 May 2009)

$2.00 level held today, looking very weak. I think this is the lowest closing price in BSL's history (last time I think it was $2.05 or $2.08, can't remember)... so hard to be positive on it. I think $1.80 is possible soon, and ultimately $1.60 is the lowest I would expect in this leg down at least, unless things turn ugly fast.

But definately looking at this one and keeping an eye, I posted a few weeks back about $2.00 being vital support and if that breaks, I would be worried.


----------



## Gamblor (15 May 2009)

I've got my order in at 1.75 and even then I'm starting to think about pulling it. I just can't get over the fact EPS has basically just halved.


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## oldblue (15 May 2009)

Gamblor said:


> I've got my order in at 1.75 and even then I'm starting to think about pulling it. I just can't get over the fact EPS has basically just halved.




That's what happens to cyclical stocks in the down cycle. Perhaps the more incredible part - now, that is - is that the SP got so high at the top of the cycle. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!


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## johannlo (15 May 2009)

They do have a lot of costs that haven't come out in the wash yet (equipment end of life etc.) and there is still an incredible amount of steel stockpiled waiting for the price and demand to recover. Its very much the long haul now even for us fools who though we were bottom picking in the mid 2 dollar range


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## bonkerrs (18 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> If you don't participate you'll have your original 4,000 shares at an average cost of $2-65 and your entitlement to the 4,000 @ $1-55 will lapse and be gratefully received by the underwriters.
> 
> If I were you and I could afford it I'd be taking up the 4,000 @ $1-55!




Check out the direction of the SP today! Received my docos from BSL last Friday and have been thinking about this all weekend - to participate or not?! I'm really up in two minds about it.

I guess I can sell what I have now and buy the allotment at 1.55. Trading at around 1.875 at the moment.


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## johannlo (18 May 2009)

That is a good idea bonkers, also you get to realise your capita loss for this financial year. Might just do that depending on which way the SP blows over next few weeks.... now for those darned docos to get here


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## bonkerrs (20 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> That is a good idea bonkers...



Following alphaman's suggestion from an earlier post! 



johannlo said:


> ...also you get to realise your capita loss for this financial year.



 Capital loss... how do you know I will make a capital loss


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## johannlo (20 May 2009)

Granted it was an assumption which I didn't pause to think about but since SP is at historical lows right now percentage wise it wouldn't have been too risky an assumption. Still point taken. Lets just leave it as 'good idea ' lol


----------



## mastatrada (21 May 2009)

I just sold at 2.04 after buying at 2.29, a bit of a pain cancelling out a previous bit of day trading I'd done from 2.25 to 2.42 but yeah I reckon 1.60 is a realistic price as the dilution at 1.55 gets underway


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## bonkerrs (21 May 2009)

no worries johannlo. you were right anyway.

Am I calculating correctly?

5000  @ 2.680  = 13,400.00  - Bought at originally
5000  @ 2.100  = 10,500.00  - Sell at example SP
                      = -2,900.00  - Loss (from original SP)

5000  @ 2.100  = 10,500.00  - Sell at example SP (as above)
5000  @ 1.550  =   7,750.00  - Take up BSL offer
                     =  2,750.00  - Profit

So my profit is 2900 - 2750 = 150.00 before I sell the offered amount?

 I'm confusing myself!


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## johannlo (21 May 2009)

I think you're right. 

I'd hedge it personally and sell half, so in effect you're resetting the your win/loss back to 0 (for all intents and purposes, give or take a few hundred bucks), in three years you should have made a nice bundle.

Meanwhile you can take the other half and go aggressive. 

That's what I'm going to do anyway assuming SP holds at around 2.1 and the markets continue to recover slowly.
If it looks like taking ages to recover SP or gets even worse then might sell the lot at the low 2s.
If it looks like recovering quick (charts, iron ore prices, demand, china + japan economy, etc. etc.) then might only sell 1/3rd or even not at all depending. 

I like to hedge my bets lol


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## MACCA350 (21 May 2009)

I considered the above approach, but I initially baught BSL for a long term outlook and that hasn't changed so I simply took up the entitlement offer and stuck them back under the pillow 

Personally I'm not a strict daytrader, I do have a percentage of capital which I use for short term trading(anywhere from a day to a few weeks). The rest I treat with a longer term investment outlook........Guess you could call me a Hybrid trader

cheers


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## ozbecool (22 May 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> no worries johannlo. you were right anyway.
> .... So my profit is 2900 - 2750 = 150.00 before I sell the offered amount?




RE: Bonkerrs #2523: I think this will be not $150 profit but $150 loss + more loss from broker fees

But your approach has its merit - on 09 June 2009 when NEW SHARES start trading there will probably be enormous SELL pressure - all of a sudden twice as many shares on the market and 1/2 of them bought at $1.55 !!! And the price will be lower than before 09 Jun.

I will actually do the same - I will sell soon; price would probably not go much higher than $2.10 - at least not in coming weeks.

Also remember that you can subscribe to more than you are entitled to (the bad thing is that you have to pay up front for additional shares, yet you might not be alloted all / any - but in that case BSL will refund the money to you).


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## johannlo (22 May 2009)

I'm betting that I can locate something that will grow faster than BSL will recover. So sometime before the 9th I have to make a decision whether to go long term with the entire stock or take a short term hit, cushioned by capital loss writeoff, and hitch my wagon to something else. Of course if you go with the doom and gloom then holding the cash and seeing what happens is always a 'safe' middle of the road option. 

This is a very real option in my mind as the recent rally then clawback has taught me some good lessons. If you're conservative then I agree that in the long run you can't really go wrong. I'm heavily influenced by my belief that there is a lot of factors yet to be put on the table which I don't want to get into in case I break forum rules for ramping or the opposite., and at the same time (assuming you don't believe they're going broke) there is no downside long term EXCEPT FOR THE FACT that your money could be doing a heck of a lot better somewhere else. 

I agree with above poster that the price will take a major hit in the short term after the new shares go on the market. Hopefully the fluctuations will give us a better exit point than the current SP, even if its only 5% more or so. There are still two weeks to see which way the wind is blowing, both for BSL and the other stocks you may be watching. Interesting times indeed


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## talktome (25 May 2009)

Subject: Update on BSL's Fire

Back in operation within 6 weeks doesn't sound too bad. Loss of $7-$10 million revenue as a result of the fire and a total cost $27 - $36 million.

I'd see BSL getting back to +$2.30 very soon.

Any views out there?

talktome



ASX Release
Release Time: IMMEDIATE
Date: 25 May 2009
UPDATE ON PICKLE LINE FIRE
AT BLUESCOPE STEEL’S WESTERN PORT PLANT
The principal damage from the fire at the Western Port Pickle Line facility is limited to the
four pickle tanks and to the roof of the building. Other equipment in the Pickle Line building
was largely untouched by the fire.
The roof of the building has now been made safe and debris has been removed. The repair
work has begun, and investigations into the cause of the fire continue.
Four replacement pickle tanks, recently decommissioned from BlueScope’s Packaging
Products facility at Port Kembla, will be transported to Western Port for installation on the
Pickle Line. These tanks were installed at Port Kembla in 2006 and have a life expectancy
of at least 15 years.
BlueScope expects the plant to return to operation within six weeks, and that a capital cost
of between $20 million to $25 million will be incurred. An impairment charge of
approximately $7 million to $10 million will be taken on assets destroyed or damaged by the
fire. A one-off pre-tax cash earnings impact of between $7 million to $11 million is expected,
principally relating to foregone sales and additional transport costs associated with
alternative production sourcing.


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## bonkerrs (27 May 2009)

ozbecool said:


> RE: Bonkerrs #2523: I think this will be not $150 profit but $150 loss + more loss from broker fees



Actually, it would be making a lot more profit then my first posted calculations.

Like this:
Entitlement: 1.55 @ 5,000 share = $7,750
Sell my shares now: 2.15 @ 5,000 shares = $10,750
Profit: $3,000 (gross)

And I'll still have my original 5,000 shares for long term prospects.


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## johannlo (27 May 2009)

Don't get your hopes up too much LOL until we see what happens the first few days when the issued shares come online, I'm sure we're not the only ones thinking along those lines...

V nice bump today though (sentiment from Rio/Japan iron ore pricing agreement?)


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## bonkerrs (27 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> Don't get your hopes up too much LOL until we see what happens the first few days when the issued shares come online, I'm sure we're not the only ones thinking along those lines...
> 
> V nice bump today though (sentiment from Rio/Japan iron ore pricing agreement?)



Could be done right now.. sp 2.20 at the moment.
But as usual, I'll probably wait and see  inaction is my forte


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## johannlo (27 May 2009)

Oh dear lord its tempting isn't it to bail now. I took some of the SPP so my avg purchase price is just above the 2 dollar mark, and there's plenty of opportunites that will gain faster than BSL will recover. Must... stick... to... discipline.... 

no seriously if it gets to around the mid 2s it will be hard not to cash in half esp. if it happens before June 9th


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## ozbecool (28 May 2009)

*BSL - Bluescope Steel - calcs*



bonkerrs said:


> Re your post # 258:
> .... Like this:
> Entitlement: 1.55 @ 5,000 share = $7,750
> Sell my shares now: 2.15 @ 5,000 shares = $10,750
> ...




I think your calcs are incorrect - in the above you even removed the cost of your original purchase ! So be careful. 

Also to estimate the short term position outcome lets assume that after 8Jun09 the price will settle 50% in between $2.05 and $1.55 , i.e. $1.8 (nobody knows where it will rest, so lets assume avg 50% distance); And then you calculate your position (broker fees excluded):

Orig buy: 5k @ $2.68 = $13,400
Sell your shares now: 5k @ $2.15 $10,750 (it is $2.24 now, but I use your SP for comparison purposes
- temp position: 10,750 - 13,400 = - $2650 (loss)

Buy new lot as an entitlement: 5k @ $1.55 = $7,750
Sell your new shares after 8Jun : 5k @ $1.80 = $9,000
- temp position: 9,000 - 7,750 = + $1250 (profit)

Overall profit / loss : $1250 - $2650 =  - $1,400 (loss)


So to profit in your situation you will have to (if you sell today 5k @$ 2.24 = + $11,200) sell a few cents above $2.00 mark.


<< sell @ $1.99 will make you BREAK EVEN (+ add brokerage costs) >>


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## bonkerrs (28 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - calcs*



ozbecool said:


> I think your calcs are incorrect - in the above you even removed the cost of your original purchase ! So be careful.
> 
> Also to estimate the short term position outcome lets assume that after 8Jun09 the price will settle 50% in between $2.05 and $1.55 , i.e. $1.8 (nobody knows where it will rest, so lets assume avg 50% distance); And then you calculate your position (broker fees excluded):
> 
> ...



Lets disregard the original shares and price I paid for now.

My original 5000 shares has allowed me to an entitlement of 5000 'new' shares at 1.55. I sell the 'new' 5000 shares before receiving it (I currently own 5000 shares), locking in profit. So basically, it can be looked at like this - I bought 5000 shares for 1.55 and I sold them for 2.27 (todays price). I know I don't physically have them yet, not until 9th June. But I have paid for it and it is locked in to receive those shares. Does this make sense, I really do have troubles explaining myself!

Now, back to the original 5000 shares. After all the above I will be left with 5000 shares (at 2.68) for my long term hold. Plus the profits of the above exercise.


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## MACCA350 (28 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - calcs*



bonkerrs said:


> Lets disregard the original shares and price I paid for now.
> 
> My original 5000 shares has allowed me to an entitlement of 5000 'new' shares at 1.55. I sell the 'new' 5000 shares before receiving it (I currently own 5000 shares), locking in profit. So basically, it can be looked at like this - I bought 5000 shares for 1.55 and I sold them for 2.27 (todays price). I know I don't physically have them yet, not until 9th June. But I have paid for it and it is locked in to receive those shares. Does this make sense, I really do have troubles explaining myself!
> 
> Now, back to the original 5000 shares. After all the above I will be left with 5000 shares (at 2.68) for my long term hold. Plus the profits of the above exercise.



I don't believe that's how it will be worked out for CGT purposes, ie you can only offset your sell against what you own at the time of sale(someone correct me if I'm wrong). So you may well work it out the way you've mentioned for your personal finances, but when it comes tax time you will need to report it as ozbecool has mentioned.

cheers


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## YELNATS (28 May 2009)

*Re: BSL - Bluescope Steel - calcs*



MACCA350 said:


> I don't believe that's how it will be worked out for CGT purposes, ie you can only offset your sell against what you own at the time of sale(someone correct me if I'm wrong). So you may well work it out the way you've mentioned for your personal finances, but when it comes tax time you will need to report it as ozbecool has mentioned.
> 
> cheers



That's right. It doesn't really matter that you have already paid for the new shares. According to the timeline in BSL's SPP offer document, 
Quote
Issue of New Shares under the Retail Entitlement Offer 5 June 2009
Normal trading of New Shares issued under the Retail
Entitlement Offer 9 June 2009
Unquote

So if you sell any of your BSL shares prior to 9 June, they will be deemed to be shares acquired apart from and separately to the SPP offer, and thus for CGT purposes will have a different cost base, ie not $1.55.


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## johannlo (28 May 2009)

That's how I understand it as well. Have already locked  in my capital loss and waiting for those 1.55 cheapies to come in  

Nice bump today to facilitate above, but market depth is lining up however against any more substantial gains in the v short term, I think a lot of holders are being tempted into this course of action by the recent rally from the $2 mark.

Of course we may get a positive outcome out of the china benchmark price standoff and make all of us who've jumped the gun already look foolish


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## MACCA350 (28 May 2009)

johannlo said:


> That's how I understand it as well. Have already locked  in my capital loss and waiting for those 1.55 cheapies to come in



I'm still considering doing the same so I can reduce my capital gain for this financial year........I've gained more than I expected, although I'd have to reduce it by a heck of a lot more than that to bring it back to were I had expected for this year

Then again I could just keep both parcels for the long term as I had originally planned for my initial buy

cheers


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## johannlo (29 May 2009)

Either way its still below my initial punt at 2.62 and if the iron ore benchmark saga w/ china finally resolves positively it can only be good for all holders. I don't believe they're going broke despite all the recent bad news and there can only be upside in the long term.


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## Kremmen (1 June 2009)

johannlo said:


> Either way its still below my initial punt at 2.62




Not by much. Closed 2.60 today, up 22c. It's interesting that there's so much talk of selling here, when this has to be one of the fastest rising stocks on the market.


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## ozbecool (1 June 2009)

Kremmen said:


> Not by much. Closed 2.60 today, up 22c. It's interesting that there's so much talk of selling here, when this has to be one of the fastest rising stocks on the market.




I think many were taken by a big surprise. I actually sold my original stock a few days ago "to cash in on a  <past $2.0 rally>" - to my regret of course as  the SP closed at $2.60 today. So again the TREND FOLLOWING TRADERS strategy to never sell a climbing stock proved correct. We learn all the time ...

Any thoughts guys on the price the BSL will start trading on 09 June ?


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## jono1887 (2 June 2009)

any reason why BSL rallied so much yesterday? other than on higher commodity prices?                                                                           .


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## Kremmen (2 June 2009)

ozbecool said:


> So again the TREND FOLLOWING TRADERS strategy to never sell a climbing stock proved correct.




Looking at the chart, I expected BSL to appear in the "outstanding breakouts" thread. It's blown through its averages, closing on/near highs for each day, high volume, etc.

The interesting question is: who is buying? Those $100m/day worth of trades aren't mostly small investors, are they?


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## M34N (2 June 2009)

Kremmen said:


> Looking at the chart, I expected BSL to appear in the "outstanding breakouts" thread. It's blown through its averages, closing on/near highs for each day, high volume, etc.
> 
> The interesting question is: who is buying? Those $100m/day worth of trades aren't mostly small investors, are they?




I agree, the volume has been very high and it has out-performed most stocks on the ASX200 (today being another example of a great day); been in and out of this one a couple times since last month and regretted each time I sold thinking it hit some resistance, only to smash through it the next day. Also got some coming in at 1.55 for the 1:1 offer that came up a while back so I already have some on the way come June 11 or whenever the SPP date is.

I heard a rumour about BSL a couple months back, mostly regarding very large foreign investment and potential takeovers, so it could potentially be some of the big boys putting money in, they seem to know more than us commoners  But I don't want to speculate too much since it's now allowed on ASF (fair enough), but it's good enough to have me partially invested and interested in BSL lately.

And I personally think the last offer of 1.55 per share was ridiculously cheap and under-valued the company quite badly. But again my opinion and not based on my usual charting analysis...


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## alter1217 (5 June 2009)

I am a relatively newbie and have been trading since early october, before this trade I had only ~$200 above my initial capital of $4000.  (Mostly from buying 200 stocks in MQG.AX @$16 before its bottom and selling @$18 because I couldn't stomach the bad news. Short sellers are geniuses, I tell you.) That, and the trade with NAB @$16 and selling @$18 (again...) covered all my previous losses between December and March. (No losses before then =D )

This trade with BSL, however was almost like a jackpot. 

I bought almost 1.5 k BSL stocks when they were coming down from $3, for average price of $2.5. (688 @ 2.79 and 800@2.29) <--Lucky for the 2nd go.  Looking over its company reports and previous announcements and future earnings forecasts I was thinking this stock was being somewhat undervalued. They also needed cash, but I thought that it was a strong company and if they really wanted to, can either locate additional finance or raise capital. (and hoped for the latter because I saw how the last capital raising was generous to existing retail investors.)

I bought into BSL thinking I was going to invest long term, and will stop with this short term business of 'gambling' when I added my total transaction fees in previous 6 months to be over $1000....

It fell to below $2, but I had learnt my lesson with MQG.AX, and believed firmly in my previous analysis of the company and held it. In hindsight, Good decision.

In the 'post 2.0 rally' it was going up like 5% a day. So I put the 'long term' into the back burner. This was frightening, and I was getting jittery (again) about June 9 coming up....
so I raised my stop to the previous day's closing price every single day... 

Then the other day when the closing price was 2.72, I set up stop at 2.7, and then it fell from 2.74... and I sold it at 2.67... for $220 profit. (based on average price 2.5)

Yesterday it slipped even more, down to 2.64... Now its 2.76 again and looking to keep going up. damn. (On the bright side, if my stop was at 2.6 I'd have an even worse result...)

I did take advantage of the capital raising... Too bad I didn't have any extra cash to apply for extra entitlements  

I'll try long term again. 

EDIT:
One thing I've learnt. Accounting is really useful. I did it in my first year in my commerce degree. Since I started reading financial reports + everything about companies I was going to invest in, I haven't lose a dime. (Its probably more because of improvement global economic outlook though)  Just need to stop being a coward and I think I'll increase my earnings.


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## airpoe (6 June 2009)

has anyone got their new shares online yet?

I though it would be the same time as Macq Bank and my Macq Bank shares has been online on friday?


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## M34N (6 June 2009)

airpoe said:


> has anyone got their new shares online yet?
> 
> I though it would be the same time as Macq Bank and my Macq Bank shares has been online on friday?




Yes, mine were issued around 6pm Melbourne time on Friday (5th June). They were also reflected as holdings in my E*Trade account as well. Unless you meant were they issued during trading hours on the ASX on Friday (10am-4pm), then no they were not active then.

If you want to find your holdings, visit the Link Market Services website and use your Holder Identification number (which should have been issued with the paperwork you would have received from Bluescope a couple weeks ago) to check your holdings.


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## airpoe (6 June 2009)

M34N said:


> Yes, mine were issued around 6pm Melbourne time on Friday (5th June). They were also reflected as holdings in my E*Trade account as well. Unless you meant were they issued during trading hours on the ASX on Friday (10am-4pm), then no they were not active then.
> 
> If you want to find your holdings, visit the  website and use your Holder Identification number (which should have been issued with the paperwork you would have received from Bluescope a couple weeks ago) to check your holdings.



I checked my holdings & they are there, but I went to Commsec, its still not there?

My Belldirect had my Macq Bank listed friday morning.

Maybe Commsec is a bit slowwww


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## bonkerrs (8 June 2009)

alter1217 said:


> I bought into BSL thinking I was going to invest long term, and will stop with this short term business of 'gambling' when I added my total transaction fees in previous 6 months to be over $1000....



If you are referring to brokerage. Isn't it a tax deduction? I hope so as I have been working out my profit/loss calculations based on it being so.


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## craigj (9 June 2009)

applied for 50% more than entitlement and got it 
these capital raisings are a great arbitrage opportunity


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## airpoe (9 June 2009)

craigj said:


> applied for 50% more than entitlement and got it
> these capital raisings are a great arbitrage opportunity



not really arbitrage opportunity but very close, depends on the market & price.

Dare I ask how many were you entitled to & how many did you get?

Also have you sold them?

I was thinking of selling but I think it has potential so I will hold until something dramatic happens


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## alex90 (10 June 2009)

I subscribe to an investing website and 10 brokers predict the 12 month target price of BSL to be ~$2.738. With the current sp sitting fairly close to this value, one wouldn't expect much gain in the coming months and thus it may be wise to sell soon. Is this a correct interpretation?
Cheers


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## prawn_86 (10 June 2009)

alex90 said:


> I subscribe to an investing website and 10 brokers predict the 12 month target price of BSL to be ~$2.738. With the current sp sitting fairly close to this value, one wouldn't expect much gain in the coming months and thus it may be wise to sell soon. Is this a correct interpretation?
> Cheers




It depends on if you believe the brokers or not. Go have a look at some of their historical picks and find out if they are actually any good (most arnt).

I have no idea either way about BSL though


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## M34N (10 June 2009)

alex90 said:


> I subscribe to an investing website and 10 brokers predict the 12 month target price of BSL to be ~$2.738. With the current sp sitting fairly close to this value, one wouldn't expect much gain in the coming months and thus it may be wise to sell soon. Is this a correct interpretation?
> Cheers




I've noted in the past few months (I think at least once in a post a while back, might have to dig it up) that BSL has major resistance at 2.70 price range, which is pretty close to where it is now (2.67 at present). I personally just dumped over half my holdings from the capital raising just today for nice profits, but will wait and see if the 2.70 resistance holds or is smashed though, ala Fortescue with its 3.00 range a week ago.

I applied for more than 3 times my original allocation and got them all, so pretty happy with how this one has turned out into a 70% profit within a week. Can't argue with that.


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## M34N (10 June 2009)

Wow, nice close at the end there, bidded up from 2.68 up to 2.72 a few minutes before the pre-close, then shot up to 2.75 at the close.

There goes that 2.70 resistance I mentioned... glad I held some of it!


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## alex90 (10 June 2009)

So now that it has broke through the resistance at $2.70, wat would your thoughts be? Is there long term potential for BSL to return to the glory days of $10.00 + :


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## sitk (11 June 2009)

I think $10.00 is not likely at all, considering that the steel price is still severly depressed from where it was at its peak in 2008. Also, as commodity prices rise, input iron ore costs will also rise. So why I still think there's upside to BSL, $10 is no where near what I would consider its fair value.


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## alex90 (11 June 2009)

I guess it is kinda hard to convey sarcasm in words!
Obviously $10 is excessive and unlikely, what would you consider a likey target for BSL be?


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## bonkerrs (11 June 2009)

sitk said:


> I think $10.00 is not likely at all, considering that the steel price is still severly depressed from where it was at its peak in 2008. Also, as commodity prices rise, input iron ore costs will also rise. So why I still think there's upside to BSL, $10 is no where near what I would consider its fair value.



Not in the near future maybe. But who can definitively predict what is to come. I have plans on holding my BSL shares long term (my only long term ones) and $10 sounds pretty dam good to me.


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## esolano (25 June 2009)

I read that "BlueScope was raised to a “buy” from “neutral” and had its price target boosted 38 percent to A$3.45 ($2.75) by UBS analysts led by Mark Busuttil in a report yesterday". Quoting Bloomberg today.

What do they mean when they say price target? Are they saying that they are expecting it to rise, if so when? How are they getting these figures?


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## skyQuake (25 June 2009)

esolano said:


> I read that "BlueScope was raised to a “buy” from “neutral” and had its price target boosted 38 percent to A$3.45 ($2.75) by UBS analysts led by Mark Busuttil in a report yesterday". Quoting Bloomberg today.
> 
> What do they mean when they say price target? Are they saying that they are expecting it to rise, if so when? How are they getting these figures?




_..through the ancient and mysterious art of fundamental analysis, analysts trawl through balance sheets and pull figures out of a hat..._


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## makingmoney (4 July 2009)

*BSL-the next hot stock?*

BSL (BLUESCOPE)been day trading for the past five years..but has anyone else noticed bsl as a under-valued stock and noticed of the last few months the volume traded recently (in excess of $60 million per/day) altho been placed in the top asx50..its volume of trading per/day would rival the top 20asx(xao).I recently done alot of research on p/e ratio and its asset value currently @ $3.43,the share currently in the last few days trading between 2.37-2.55 p/s i realise the value has come down from its highs of mid $9per/share..lol as the rest in the market besides the defensive caps..Can any one here see why this stock seems so undervalued?OR any insight about this stock? Meh personally think this BSL is a hot stock in the next 12months)..PLease note: you should always do ur own homework before purchasing stock and this stock is a personal opinion..)


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## lucifuge (6 July 2009)

*Re: BSL-the next hot stock?*



makingmoney said:


> BSL (BLUESCOPE)been day trading for the past five years..but has anyone else noticed bsl as a under-valued stock and noticed of the last few months the volume traded recently (in excess of $60 million per/day) altho been placed in the top asx50..its volume of trading per/day would rival the top 20asx(xao).I recently done alot of research on p/e ratio and its asset value currently @ $3.43,the share currently in the last few days trading between 2.37-2.55 p/s i realise the value has come down from its highs of mid $9per/share..lol as the rest in the market besides the defensive caps..Can any one here see why this stock seems so undervalued?OR any insight about this stock? Meh personally think this BSL is a hot stock in the next 12months)..PLease note: you should always do ur own homework before purchasing stock and this stock is a personal opinion..)




However good a stock it is, it's subject big-time to the current 'China syndrome' so naturally there's a lot of hesitation surrounding it. Personally I think it's good stock and I would like to buy, but only when I'm confident the price is right.


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## trainspotter (6 July 2009)

Purchased BSL in late May on the back of them being awarded a government contract to supply steel for the Navy ships yet to be built. $2.35 a piece. Went to $2.65 mid June. Currently trading at $2.29 and dropping. Profit takers for June 30th deadline was the issue. Still think it should be one to keep in the drawer for the moment.


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## makingmoney (16 July 2009)

*bsl..nice rebound*

well in the last thread i mentioned bsl was a stock about 2 move..i did mention it as a hot stock undervalued @ 2.26 2wks ago...cause i just made a killing and sold now right after the re-opening of the blast furn..well 20% profit 4 2 wks isnt bad...i still think its undervalued baised on its value asset wise @ 3.43..well but i wait after the next 2wks of reports tho first...hope u did jump on my tip posted a fortnight ago..l8tr all


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## trainspotter (16 July 2009)

Congrats Makingmoney ... sold mine today at $2.75. Had them in the drawer. Read previous post. Not sure why they spiked when they announced a $140,000,0000 LOSS????????


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## MACCA350 (16 July 2009)

trainspotter said:


> Congrats Makingmoney ... sold mine today at $2.75. Had them in the drawer. Read previous post. Not sure why they spiked when they announced a $140,000,0000 LOSS????????



They also announce the restart of No5 blast furnace due to increased demand. They also completed refinancing and are covered for the next 2-3 years. They had already made shareholders aware of a possible loss back in Feb, so the announced loss may well have been mostly factored in.

cheers


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## johannlo (16 July 2009)

Yes there was a lot of bad news known about BSL (idle furnace, lots of maintenance costs, stockpiles etc. ) factored in, even now the price is undervalued.

The loss was expected, finance sorted in medium term and restarting furnace / china+us news = good signs.


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## makingmoney (16 July 2009)

yeah agreed with the last two previous threads,that with the restarting of the no #5 blast furnace means there got a lot of upcoming orders 2 met,altho selling i think the stock is still undervalued,but in saying that i have a gut feeling in the next few weeks of a down turn so i wait 2 rebuy in when the market bottoms...and grats trainspotter on sale of 2.75


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## trainspotter (17 July 2009)

And still it continues to rise. Up another 7 cents to $2.84. I see a derailment coming up soon. Hopefully only a few carriages will fall off.


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## giasing (17 July 2009)

what happened to price. it went up to $2.91 thhen fell back to the lowest day at $2.8. will this stock start to fall back?


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## trainspotter (17 July 2009)

Read previous posts to form your opinion. Mine is on display for all to see. Still undervalued IMO but better to make 20% now and adopt a wait and see approach.


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## makingmoney (17 July 2009)

agreed with trainspotter..i hope the train crashes now..then il rebuy in l8tr..i think todays highs where the top of the bulls its shows 2.91 as resistance..now im hoping 4 a drop off


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## trainspotter (17 July 2009)

Still predicting $3.43 by the end September ????? Hmmmm they gonna have to get a few more contracts to surge that much me thinks.


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## alter1217 (20 July 2009)

I bought some back a couple of weeks ago when it dropped to 2.28... its now 2.9. I'd like to sell and realise my profits but some of me is feeling greedy and want to see if it goes up some more after looking at the 6 month graph.... im thinking it might go back up to 3.2 ish if this keeps up, but this is just the greedy me talking.

I've put a sell order at 2.95. See what happens today.


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## trainspotter (20 July 2009)

Sounds like you have talked yourself into it alter1217. Don't mind a 29.34% profit in a few weeks. Keep up the good work ! Greed is good. But discretion is the better part of valour.


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## skyQuake (20 July 2009)

You could try selling say 1/2 your holdings if you get uncomfortable. That way you are better off psychologically as you can rationalize your decisions easier. Not necessarily the best management method, but certainly helps you sleep at night.


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## alter1217 (20 July 2009)

trainspotter said:


> Sounds like you have talked yourself into it alter1217. Don't mind a 29.34% profit in a few weeks. Keep up the good work ! Greed is good. But discretion is the better part of valour.




And its on top of a roughly 25% I made selling bsl at 2.57 after participating in the SPP... It isn't too bad, this stock.  

Now if only I didn't lose roughly half the profits buying rio at $70 a piece to get into rio's SPP... only to have it dropped to 40's... although I did buy some more rio then as $46 was a bit cheap so my average price purchased was brought down to $55. Which brings me to...



> You could try selling say 1/2 your holdings if you get uncomfortable. That way you are better off psychologically as you can rationalize your decisions easier. Not necessarily the best management method, but certainly helps you sleep at night.




I sold half my rio at $52 as it came back up. the china vs rio business is too risky for my liking. but I regret a bit selling 50% nonetheless as it rose through $53.5 today....

I'll just sell if bsl comes down to the 2.8 mark.

Never sell a rapidly rising stock without good reason (IMHO). I've learnt that lesson buying mqg.ax @ $16 and selling at $18 (dont laugh) when the newspapers were too much for me.


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## alter1217 (28 July 2009)

Sold it for 2.95 the other day and now its heading towards 3.2, the price i guessed it would reach.


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## MACCA350 (28 July 2009)

alter1217 said:


> Sold it for 2.95 the other day and now its heading towards 3.2, the price i guessed it would reach.



just checked and my remaining parcel in BSL is up over 100%, might just keep this one in the bottom drawer

cheers


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## lenny (2 September 2009)

Is there any Candlestick experts out there ?

BSL had a bullish engulfing pattern form yesterday and i was wondering if it was still valid?

Thanks in advance
Lenny


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## tasmanian (2 September 2009)

Funny u should say that.I just noticed it myself.One of my favourite buy signals.

  I bought some not long ago but only a few as things abit riskier atm but worth a go imo.If u buy though dont hold me responsible.ha ha.

  Engulfing patterns either bearish/bullish are very good signals.This is not the strongest Ive seen but bullish engulfing patterns really show buying support or vice versa for the bearish engulfing.U could buy and put your stop right below the low of the engulfing I gave it abit more room though.

  Like I said your decision just letting u know what I did.best of luck with it.


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## lenny (2 September 2009)

Thanks for the reply Tasmanian, Got in @ 2.89 & put my stop at $2.80 which is low of bullish engulfing candle and 50% fib ret.

Gl


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## Taltan (14 October 2009)

Are they paying a final dividend around Oct/Nov or are they skipping it son there won't be one until Mar/Apr next year?


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## milothedog (14 October 2009)

Fairly sure the dividend was scrapped at the time of capital raisings (can't find exact document), so next divvy is 18/2/10 ex date.


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## clayton4115 (24 October 2009)

good time to go short? spinning top formed recently, perhaps put a stop at $3.52 and go short with a target price of $2.92 ?


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## Dreadweave (24 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> good time to go short? spinning top formed recently, perhaps put a stop at $3.52 and go short with a target price of $2.92 ?





Short selling isnt a part of my strategy but I recently sold out of BSL at 3.28 with the idea that it would drop fast real soon, So in a round about way my exit strategy supports your short strategy.


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## clayton4115 (25 October 2009)

okies

im using cfds to short stocks, i think there will be alot more opportunities coming up as we all anticipate a broad market pullback,

banks are the first on my list.


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## geea (25 October 2009)

People have been calling a pull back for 2-3 months. Those that exited back them have missed a great run.
The market will always have corrections but trying to pick them is hard.
I reckon the markets going to be alot higher in 6 months time than it is now and i'm going to ride out the highs and lows so i don't miss the bus. Been buying hard since Nov 2008 and BSL is my best profit maker so far. I still see alot of upside in this stock.

Geea


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## craigj (26 October 2009)

bsl is a stock most affected by a rise in the aussie dollar
the weakness in the us dollar is not good for bsl

this is from last weeks eureka report

based on this i have sold my holding


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## alter1217 (30 October 2009)

I've always thought stronger aussie dollar is a result of the strength of our commodities sector. i.e foreign countries exchange for $A to buy our commodities. 

I see the stronger aussie dollar is a symptom of future strong commodities sector. Then again you can argue BSL is selling steel, not iron ore. I worry more about the coming ETS.

I never thought I'd be able to see BSL below my sell price again.


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## alter1217 (31 October 2009)

I only started reading on technical analysis this week. Do you think BSL is in an inverted head and shoulders pattern? Or is it not applicable because there has been 2 share raisings, and BSL's price is now actually approximately $6, in January 2009 terms?

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1256619600000&chddm=78955&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=ASX:BSL&ntsp=0


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## Mister Mark (3 August 2010)

Not one that has been mentioned for a while but seems an improver? Anyone following this stock, i do hold some and interested for some opinions.


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## sid_ao7 (27 October 2010)

Been following this stock for a while, hold it too. Trading around the 2.08 range today, and from a technical standpoint i think it's definitely building some sort of base here. 

6 month charts show it trading between the 2.08-2.50 range, and i've seen valuations of it, at over 3.10. Definitely due for a pick up at least toward the 2.20 range i would think.


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## sid_ao7 (31 October 2010)

Interesting take on the steel industry:

The below is information taken from Zacks, that was posted on the 29th of October, about the outlook for the steel industry. 

"According to World Steel Association (“worldsteel”), steel demand in the U.S. was down 41.6% in 2009 at 57.4 million tons. However, with the economy in recovery mode, the industrial sector is expected to drive a 26.5% increase in steel demand in the U.S. in 2010 and a further 7.5% in 2011 to 78.1 million tons.

The emerging economies reflected growth trends throughout the recession and are expected to continue to drive steel demand, going forward. Worldsteel expects steel demand in India to grow 13.9% and 13.7% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, following a growth of 7.7% in 2009."


Should be interesting to see what the stock does on Monday. US Steel stocks did ok, c.o.b on friday, so hopefully some sort of pick up here. I still think there is too much disparity between xjo and bsl. lets hope the hedge funders stop taking it out on this stock. 

-->>DYOR--<<


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## rabbit59 (31 October 2010)

sid_ao7 said:


> Been following this stock for a while, hold it too. Trading around the 2.08 range today, and from a technical standpoint i think it's definitely building some sort of base here.
> 
> 6 month charts show it trading between the 2.08-2.50 range, and i've seen valuations of it, at over 3.10. Definitely due for a pick up at least toward the 2.20 range i would think.




I havent heald this stock since i last brought it, when about this time last year, it was $1.88, when i jumped in, i have set myself a good valuation of this stock, and i indent to take an opportunity to buy back in very soon, the reply below me will be the big question for me, when will the turn begin.....??? Will it be this week  i think so...


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## rabbit59 (31 October 2010)

rabbit59 said:


> I havent heald this stock since i last brought it, when about this time last year, it was $1.88, when i jumped in, i have set myself a good valuation of this stock, and i indent to take an opportunity to buy back in very soon, the reply below me will be the big question for me, when will the turn begin.....??? Will it be this week  i think so...




Excuse my shocking grammar and spelling errors fine people, need my laptop back


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## laurie (31 October 2010)

To think in 2007 this was $9.60 thats approx. 381% drop from a high in early 2007 will we see those figures again IMHO not for a long time 

laurie


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## VViCKiD (8 November 2010)

Gees. BSL seems to have had a rough time of late. It's trading at a discount to its book value now with stronger profits expected for 2011. Anyone brave enough to guess a bottom here ?


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## Jez (9 November 2010)

I hope it "bottom" is now. I am badly burned at $2.80 at the moment. Let's pray for some rebound very soon!


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## VViCKiD (10 November 2010)

Wow.. .another down day. Down 2% !! I just want my money back now  

Any one have any broker opinions on this one ?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 November 2010)

VViCKiD said:


> Wow.. .another down day. Down 2% !! I just want my money back now
> 
> Any one have any broker opinions on this one ?




Just curious, what was your initial exit criteria for the initial purchase / entry? I took a trade recently at 2.20ish then exited at 2.13ish as planned after it failed.


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## VViCKiD (10 November 2010)

I was in at 2.13 and Plan on exiting at 1.7. I was looking at medium to long term hold for this. Ie. 6 - 18 months. How about yourself ? Seems like quite a few people got burned on this as well


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## It's Snake Pliskin (11 November 2010)

VViCKiD said:


> I was in at 2.13 and Plan on exiting at 1.7. I was looking at medium to long term hold for this. Ie. 6 - 18 months. How about yourself ? Seems like quite a few people got burned on this as well



It was just a trade which could have lasted weeks or days. I wasn't looking at the fundamentals. My initial stop amount was burned.


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## skc (11 November 2010)

Interesting reaction to AGM.

Possible H1 loss sparked a 5% rise on the day.

These AGMs are such market movers recently.

The old support turned resistance at $2.03 might be tested in the next few days but it would take a mighty effort to clear it.


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## Taltan (7 December 2010)

sid_ao7 said:


> . I still think there is too much disparity between xjo and bsl. lets hope the hedge funders stop taking it out on this stock.
> 
> -->>DYOR--<<




What's XJO? I am not sure if your refering to the Australian Stock exchange or an American steel company?


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## VViCKiD (7 December 2010)

Have we cleared it yet ? Does this look like a clear sign ??? BSL has been rallying quite a bit lately


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## skc (14 March 2011)

The biggest riser today as people seem to think the earthquake rebuild in Japan will bring better prospects for BSL.

The entire Japanese market seem to disagree.

Unless there are something else going on this has to be an over reaction.


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## Wysiwyg (15 March 2011)

skc said:


> The biggest riser today as people seem to think the earthquake rebuild in Japan will bring better prospects for BSL.
> 
> The entire Japanese market seem to disagree.
> 
> Unless there are something else going on this has to be an over reaction.




Similar pattern to BSL is One Steel which has thrown a couple of green days too.  Historical sup/res around 2.30.


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## skc (15 March 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Similar pattern to BSL is One Steel which has thrown a couple of green days too.  Historical sup/res around 2.30.




I trade them as a pair all the time, but I have a fundamental bias for OST... at least they are profitable.


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## tonics (23 March 2011)

skc said:


> I trade them as a pair all the time, but I have a fundamental bias for OST... at least they are profitable.




Looking at charts over the last year on BSL and OST, both have been on the decline, however BSL seems to have bounces of 10-20% moves at times throughout the last year, while OST has just been on a continual grind downwards.
Over the last few years, since 2008, OST has always seemed the more fundamentally stronger company out of the 2, and as mentioned is at least profitable with a stronger outlook for the future, but just can't seem to shake off the decline.
Currently holding losses in both these companies, inclinations are to cut losses on BSL and move to OST as the stronger company fundamentally, but past history has shown BSL to have the greater tendency for rebounds.
Any opinions on this, or any chartists who may have some input about this?


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## Julia (23 March 2011)

I haven't been following this thread, but are you taking into account how disadvantaged BSL (and probably OST for that matter) will be if Ms gillard's carbon tax is legislated?
The Chairman of BSL - and member of the Reserve Bank Board, Graham Kraehe, has slammed the government on this.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/23/3171207.htm?section=justin


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## tonics (14 April 2011)

Thanks Julia, hoping it may be a sell the rumour and buy the fact scenario after given the steep declines.





Julia said:


> I haven't been following this thread, but are you taking into account how disadvantaged BSL (and probably OST for that matter) will be if Ms gillard's carbon tax is legislated?
> The Chairman of BSL - and member of the Reserve Bank Board, Graham Kraehe, has slammed the government on this.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/23/3171207.htm?section=justin


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## Aussiejeff (3 July 2011)

tonics said:


> Looking at charts over the last year on BSL and OST, both have been on the decline, however BSL seems to have bounces of 10-20% moves at times throughout the last year, while OST has just been on a continual grind downwards.
> Over the last few years, since 2008, OST has always seemed the more fundamentally stronger company out of the 2, and as mentioned is at least profitable with a stronger outlook for the future, but just can't seem to shake off the decline.
> Currently holding losses in both these companies, inclinations are to cut losses on BSL and move to OST as the stronger company fundamentally, but past history has shown BSL to have the greater tendency for rebounds.
> Any opinions on this, or any chartists who may have some input about this?




IMO while Green Labour continues in power, the future for steel manufacturers looks bleak. Check out the accelerating decline in BSL share price since Carbon Tax announced.... courtesy of .... http://www.sunriseadvice.com.au/2011-predictions-update/dutch-disease-update


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## edwin888 (17 August 2011)

Are there still any hopes for Bluescope Steel's future trend?


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## skc (17 August 2011)

edwin888 said:


> Are there still any hopes for Bluescope Steel's future trend?




Some rumours on possible tie up between BSL and OneSteel.

Not sure who's taking over who, or may be a merger of equals?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...0817-KSSQN?OpenDocument&emcontent_wheelsdeals



> Australia’s two big steelmakers – BlueScope Steel and OneSteel – have never had it so tough, with a strong Australian dollar, higher raw material costs and low margins cutting into their value. Bluescope got the ball rolling last week, flagging a $900 million write-down and possible job cuts at its Port Kembla operations, and OneSteel’s full-year profit numbers didn’t make happy reading either. The company posted a 6 per cent drop in underlying full-year profit and is set to cut steel production and more than 400 workers. The local manufacturing division was a particular disappointment as it slumped to a $185 million loss, but the one big positive for OneSteel was its iron ore mining business. With both steelmakers under the pump, it’s hardly surprising that talk of the two tying the knot (combining BlueScope’s bigger Port Kembla blast furnaces with OneSteel's iron ore supply) at some stage have grown stronger in recent times. While OneSteel boss Geoff Plummer has hosed down speculation of an imminent tie-up he hasn’t ruled it out, especially if conditions continue to deteriorate. Plummer’s reticence about the merger stems from the fact that the two businesses are very different and he has a point. OneSteel has a far greater exposure to a turnaround in domestic steel demand and focuses on building long products used in construction and infrastructure sectors, while BlueScope specialises in hot-rolled coil and coated steels, which it sells to export markets. The issue might not be as cut and dry as combining the blast furnaces of the two steelmakers but consolidation may be the key to surviving the tough market conditions, especially if the world is headed for a lengthy slowdown. OneSteel’s latest results have been largely boosted by iron ore sales with the core steel-making business in trouble. The tipping point for OneSteel’s Plummer could come down to the Australian dollar, which is widely expected to continue outperforming the greenback in the near-term. With a resurgent dollar and the domestic steel business facing significant headwinds, a merger could still very much be on the cards.


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## skyQuake (17 August 2011)

skc said:


> Some rumours on possible tie up between BSL and OneSteel.
> 
> Not sure who's taking over who, or may be a merger of equals?




Or more like blind leading the blinddd

BSL never really got out of the GFC


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## skc (17 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Or more like blind leading the blinddd
> 
> BSL never really got out of the GFC




Well at least there might be some savings from having only one board and management team...

Exporting a commodity product like steel from a high cost country like Australia isn't a recipe for great profits.

I always thought the investment bankers dream up these random ideas just to sow the seed into the minds of the board and CEOs. A bit like Inception...


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## McLovin (17 August 2011)

skc said:


> Exporting a commodity product like steel from a high cost country like Australia isn't a recipe for great profits.




And yet the mining industry will tell us that the good times will roll on for decades.


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## skc (17 August 2011)

McLovin said:


> And yet the mining industry will tell us that the good times will roll on for decades.




Lol. Let me clarify... exporting a _manufactured _commodity product, which can also be manufactured anywhere else in the world, from a high cost country like Australia isn't a recipe for great _sustainable _profits.

Mining resources are different because they are found where they are found.


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## edwin888 (17 August 2011)

Does anyone think that it is a low price to buy now before it bounds up?


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## McLovin (17 August 2011)

skc said:


> Lol. Let me clarify... exporting a _manufactured _commodity product, which can also be manufactured anywhere else in the world, from a high cost country like Australia isn't a recipe for great _sustainable _profits.
> 
> Mining resources are different because they are found where they are found.




I agree, and my comment was very much tongue-in-cheek, although I don't think the returns in the iron/coal industry are sustainable. OST/BSL are toast, whether or not there is a carbon tax, IMO.


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## Tysonboss1 (17 August 2011)

McLovin said:


> And yet the mining industry will tell us that the good times will roll on for decades.




The production of steel and the mining of raw materials are very different.

Just like owning an oil field is very different from owning an oil refinery.


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## skc (17 August 2011)

McLovin said:


> I agree, and my comment was very much tongue-in-cheek, although I don't think the returns in the iron/coal industry are sustainable. OST/BSL are toast, whether or not there is a carbon tax, IMO.




Yes I get the tongue-in-cheek-ness and hence the lol 

It's hard to see how they can turn it around. Steel making has always been a cyclical industry (to go with the construction cycle) but there are structural changes that are simply overwhelming for all players.


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## edwin888 (18 August 2011)

Looks like Bluescope Steel's share price keep dropping and will never go up again.
Is it still the ASX 50 leaders?


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## skc (18 August 2011)

edwin888 said:


> Is it still the ASX 50 leaders?




How does this affect your decision to buy/hold/sell?


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## edwin888 (18 August 2011)

skc said:


> How does this affect your decision to buy/hold/sell?




Just wonder will Bluescope Steel got kick out from ASX 50 leaders as its price dropping seems to be never end.


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## skc (18 August 2011)

edwin888 said:


> Just wonder will Bluescope Steel got kick out from ASX 50 leaders as its price dropping seems to be never end.




Sure why not. But what has that got to do with your investment decision? Do you have a rule that says you will only invest in ASX 50?

An inclusion / exclusion in ASX200 can sometimes impact the share price in the short term as a stock becomes investable / non-investable to many mutual funds. But I suspect the impact of being ASX 50 would be rather minimal.


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## notting (18 August 2011)

Unfortunatly it's difficult to see how their going to servive.
Some big international fund investors let stocks goe that fall below $1 which creates a bit of a snowball too.


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## kat (18 August 2011)

notting said:


> Unfortunatly it's difficult to see how their going to servive.
> Some big international fund investors let stocks goe that fall below $1 which creates a bit of a snowball too.




Agree, seems the big institutions are selling the stock.


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## edwin888 (19 August 2011)

9% dropped today...it is the time to buy or gonna drop more on Monday as the report release.


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## skc (19 August 2011)

edwin888 said:


> 9% dropped today...it is the time to buy or gonna drop more on Monday as the report release.




Why is it time to buy? Why do you think they are cheap? It's a business that's *NOT* making money. How much are you willing to pay for a business that's losing money? What are the prospects of the business turning around and being profitable again? How much profits? When? Is it worth the current price?

Go look for answers to these questions and it might assist you with your buy/hold/sell decision.


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## Joe Blow (19 August 2011)

edwin888 said:


> 9% dropped today...it is the time to buy or gonna drop more on Monday as the report release.




Edwin, please do not recommend that others buy or sell any stock. Also, please do not ask others for advice about whether they think you should buy or sell a stock.

It is not permitted for anyone on ASF to ask for or provide this kind of specific financial advice.


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## pixel (19 August 2011)

edwin888 said:


> 9% dropped today...it is the time to buy or gonna drop more on Monday as the report release.



 You could find a hint of a bottom in the chart below, where I have taken the first leg down in the new Financial Year and extrapolated it down. The first recovery back up made it half-way up; I find such a move will often preempt a drop to at least twice the range - i.e. 200%. If that is broken, the regulation Fibonacci levels are my next targets. But as you say yourself: We must wait till Monday and see what happens then. 323.6% is quite a long way down still 





PS: Hi Joe, I hope my analysis isn't construed as "advice". ( Nor had I taken edwin's post as asking us what (s)he should do.)


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## Avneel (23 August 2011)

What's the consensus on this one now in light of their announcement to reduce production capacity?? Do you think BSL share price will be able to return back to the levels of seen 6months ago???


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## notting (23 August 2011)

Avneel said:


> What's the consensus on this one now in light of their announcement to reduce production capacity?? Do you think BSL share price will be able to return back to the levels of seen 6months ago???




It's just a sad story.  They cannot compete with international steel makers especially with the AU$ so high.  If the price goes up in this environment it's unrealistic.  They are just losing money and it’s another manufacturing industry that is pretty much dead.  Probably why BHP spun it off years ago.


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## NewToTheTrade (28 August 2011)

where do you see Bluescope in 5-10 years time?


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## Struzball (28 August 2011)

NewToTheTrade said:


> where do you see Bluescope in 5-10 years time?




If I could buy steel imported from overseas cheaper than locally, how much would a local steel maker be worth?

Taking into account a carbon tax, Australian made steel could only become more expensive.

I'd guess the price of BSL in 5-10 years could be anywhere between $0.00 and $20.00 per share.  

Note: I don't know anything about anything.


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## Smurf1976 (28 August 2011)

The last time I bought steel from Bluescope, they gave me the option of either an Australian product or a cheaper import. Given that Bluescope and Onesteel dominate the steel distrubution industry, it would seem that Blusescope at least isn't overly committed to its own manufacturing operations if they are willing to under cut themselves in this way.

It all sounds much like how Australian Paper / Amcor / PaperlinX wrecked the paper manufacturing industry, closed half the mills and sold the rest, and turned themselves into a distributor of paper produced by others. Thousands of workers out of a job, the economy of a region stuffed, and investors are at last count sitting on a massive 98% loss of their capital. They are now waiting on council approval to completely demolish two of the now idle mills that once lay at the heart of the industry.

The paper industry went downhill once APPM was taken over and the same could be said for steel once BHP got out of the business. The detail differs slightly between the two industries, but the parallels are striking.


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## tech/a (28 August 2011)

I actually import steel on indent with a group of buyers.

Imported steel is around 50% cheaper than Aussi steel.
It's made out of the same raw materials though.
Makes me feel better!
Oh the savings help


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## PinguPingu (28 August 2011)

Anyone up for a bit of List or Hamilton protectionism? :


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## Smurf1976 (29 August 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> Anyone up for a bit of List or Hamilton protectionism? :



It would seem that many countries are already protecting thier industries through various means. 

The so-called "level playing field" simply does not exist anywhere other than in an economist's imagination and the odds are that won't change anytime soon.


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## Gringotts Bank (25 November 2011)

Surely this is a buy now?

I think the market will make some effort to fill in that large gap on Monday.


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## skc (25 November 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Surely this is a buy now?




Why?

Fundamentally I am not willing to pay anything for a company that loses ~$1B each year. The cap raising bought them more time from bankruptcy... I am struggling to picture a scenario where iron ore and coal prices will fall while steel prices remain high.

There may be some short term proping up just to get the retail holders to join the rights issue, but I doubt it will hold up against the tide.

Technically there's only the gap but not much other evidence...


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## pixel (26 November 2011)

pixel said:


> 323.6% is quite a long way down still



But reached it was.




Then it offered some support, even a bounce back up that gave rise to a new Fibonacci study like this:




The first Fibonacci level *may* become holding support; but sadly, 161.8% is the target that gets hit more often. And that's at 12.5c - so far outside the picture that we better leave it there for the time being.


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## TMC93 (26 November 2011)

If the aussie dollar dropped significantly, would it have to drop to 50 cents for it to be just as cheap for local steel makers than imports? Or am i missing something?


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## Smurf1976 (26 November 2011)

I heard a commentator on Financial Sense Newshour a while ago saying that Chinese steel production is continuing to boom but that consumption is not. His argument amounted to saying that they were keeping the mills running flat out so as to create employment but weren't actually selling all the steel they produce (presumably it's just piling up somewhere).

I don't have any further details sorry so make of it what you will. Maybe he's right, maybe not but I'd be doing some research into this if I were investing in steel or iron ore companies.


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## Taltan (13 December 2011)

Rights Issue tommorrow. 
I have a problem with not buying at 40c if someone else is paying 42.5c.
I also have a problem throwing money at a company losing money without controlling how it can turn that around.

Is someone artificially keeping the price at over 40c?

Any thoughts, ideas or comments appreciated


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## Wysiwyg (13 December 2011)

Look at 'em all stacked trying to catch a swing up in this *perennial down-trender.* Unreal isn't it, though I used to play that game too.


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## skc (13 December 2011)

Taltan said:


> Rights Issue tommorrow.
> I have a problem with not buying at 40c if someone else is paying 42.5c.
> I also have a problem throwing money at a company losing money without controlling how it can turn that around.
> 
> ...




Short the BSL ~ 42.5c and sbuscribe for the rights... a guaranteed 2.5c...

If you have enough rights to cover the brokerage, that is.


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## prawn_86 (13 August 2012)

Up 50 odd today after their report. Apparent JV deal with Nippon Steel seems to have the market excited


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## DJG (24 December 2012)

Does anybody have an idea on what happened to BSL on Friday's close?
Google Finance & Business Day said it was up 595% in a day!
ASX website had a question mark for the price.

I don't have a position in BSL but just really curious what could move it so much? I was thinking maybe a fat finger trade but even at 595% I still found it hard to believe.

Cheers


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## thepizzaking (24 December 2012)

DJG said:


> Does anybody have an idea on what happened to BSL on Friday's close?




1 for 6 share consolidation: http://www.steelguru.com/internatio...completion_of_share_consolidation/295955.html


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## Country Lad (24 December 2012)

Yes it did appear to go up by that much to the unwary, but it was actually a 1 for 6 share consolidation.

Cheers
CL


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## DJG (26 December 2012)

Ah right, thought it was a bit odd.

Thanks guys


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## pixel (20 February 2013)

It seems the consolidation made Bluescope attractive for fundies and bigger investors. Technically though, the Fib 161.8% level should make a reasonable reversal point. Check ARI - same thing.

Notting, I presume you meant BSL, not BLS. Happy Shorting - should be a promising prospect soon.


----------



## notting (20 February 2013)

pixel said:


> Notting, I presume you meant BSL, not BLS. Happy Shorting - should be a promising prospect soon.




Yes I did, thanks and sorry!


----------



## bigdog (31 May 2013)

Bluescope showing encouraging signs with share price increasing - refer chart attached

With a change of government to Liberals in September, potential of cancellation of carbon tax could be good news for BSL!

*Encouraging report in todays The Age*
http://www.theage.com.au/business/iron-ore-miners-out-of-favour-20130530-2neq9.html

The decline in the iron ore price is potentially good news for local steel producers such as BlueScope Steel, which is working as well to limit the impact of high iron ore prices on earnings.

BlueScope is ramping up export volumes of iron sands, for example, to help offset overly strong iron ore prices on its bottom line. It is doubling iron sands exports to 1.7 million tonnes, which coupled with using some of the product at its Port Kembla steelworks, will help to lift overall iron ore sales to 2.7 million tonnes annually.

The company operates its own iron sands mine in New Zealand, with part of the output used at its local steelworks. The boost to exports will give BlueScope a 55 per cent ''hedge'' against iron ore prices, it said.

Additionally, BlueScope is still boosting exports of coke, following the closure of one of the two blast furnaces at Port Kembla, which has left it with surplus production capacity. It now devotes one of its coke ovens solely to service export markets.

From coke export volumes of 172,000 tonnes in fiscal 2011, this rose to 516,000 tonnes in the next financial year, in the wake of the closure of one of the two blast furnaces at Port Kembla.

It rose further, to 360,000 tonnes in the December half alone, which has lifted it to an annualised rate of 720,000 tonnes.

To help boost coke exports further, it has reconfigured some of its port capacity.

BlueScope is believed to be selling a large part of its coke to international trader Noble Corp.

560


----------



## Knobby22 (24 February 2014)

I'm pretty pleased with the Bluescope results. I have been holding for a while for no gain expecting good results due to the falling $A and its good to see it reflected in the price finally.
Just read the headlines. Haven't had a chance to study them yet.


----------



## piggybank (24 February 2014)

Hi,

For the Fundamental guys here, I was wondering what your opinion(s) were of today's 1H FY2014 Half Year Results Investor Presentation (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=BSL&E=ASX&N=402578) as well as the Value, Income, Risk and Growth figures I have highlighted - are they something that would keep you awake at night if you had a decent parcel of their shares presently? Any feedback would be appreciated. 




​
Regards
PB


----------



## Knobby22 (25 February 2014)

Future prospects look good but there are divisions not performing well.
Also consider underlying earnings not just the front figures.


----------



## notting (9 December 2014)

Does everyone who looks at this stock immediately become retarded?
This thing should be trading at about a dollar in this environment.
Perhaps the rest of the market is totally wrong.
But it gets it right on BSL.
It's such a shame we can't have two letter tickers on the ASX.
Yep.  BS.


----------



## leyy (29 January 2015)

Any thoughts on BSL?


I just bought a parcel for a short-medium hold.

This business has been transition phase and cost cutting the last two years.

The upside:

Low iron ore prices to produce steel

Low AUD/USD (circa 30% income is in USD)

Fair construction activity in AUS/NZ


cheers


----------



## Triathlete (30 January 2015)

leyy said:


> Any thoughts on BSL?
> 
> 
> I just bought a parcel for a short-medium hold.
> ...





Just from a technical view on a weekly chart the stock is still in a downtrend. It has a natural support level around $4.70 so may come back here and hopefully no lower. The next two natural resistance levels above are at $5.16 and $5.61 ( my view only). The stock is not showing too much at this stage technically and might just move within these levels. I would at least be waiting until it breaks through the downtrend line before taking a look at the stock if going long..


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## notting (15 July 2016)

Going gang busters :silly:

Cracked $8.45 Yeah go on keep going.  It will only mean more when reality dawns.


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## skc (15 July 2016)

notting said:


> Going gang busters :silly:
> 
> Cracked $8.45 Yeah go on keep going.  It will only mean more when reality dawns.




I seriously don't get it. Didn't they just recently got some concession from the union and the government saying how tough things are... then next thing you know they upgrade profits 3 times in 6 months.


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## luutzu (15 July 2016)

skc said:


> I seriously don't get it. Didn't they just recently got some concession from the union and the government saying how tough things are... then next thing you know they upgrade profits 3 times in 6 months.




It's call corporate welfare. Where you cry poor and the poor workers make their sacrifices to keep their job and the help the company out; the gov't step in and with taxpayer cash, help a struggling Aussie out. 

Then managers pocket their bonuses, shareholders get some, and we all can't afford anything anymore.


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## notting (9 September 2016)

Pays a .35% dividend then plummets 4% obviously alot of smart people holding for the glorious moment of getting a dividend. :bloated:


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## dutchie (31 May 2017)

45 million shares change hands during closing auction. Whats that all about? Buy back?


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## skc (31 May 2017)

dutchie said:


> 45 million shares change hands during closing auction. Whats that all about? Buy back?




MSCI rebalance.

http://www.afr.com/street-talk/massive-bluescope-volume-on-index-change-20170531-gwhf80


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## dutchie (31 May 2017)

skc said:


> MSCI rebalance.
> 
> http://www.afr.com/street-talk/massive-bluescope-volume-on-index-change-20170531-gwhf80




Thanks skc


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## notting (21 August 2017)

Is the insanity finally over?  16% down!
Even at $9 this is ridiculous and it will hit 9. currently 11.84 after 16% drop.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 August 2017)

I sold my BSL a few years ago and am unfamiliar with them now.

Anyone know what they actually do atm.

gg


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## bigdog (21 August 2017)

MELBOURNE, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Australia's Bluescope Steel (BSL) warned on Monday earnings are set to fall in the current half, hit by import competition and soaring power and gas prices locally and weaker margins in the United States.

At the same time, the country's biggest steel maker flagged its well-respected chief executive, Paul O'Malley, would retire in December. He will be replaced by the head of the company's Australian arm.

Bluescope said underlying earnings were set to drop 20 percent in the current half from the second half of the 2017 financial year to around A$422 million ($334 million), implying a 30 percent drop from a year earlier.

"Productivity improvements ... are not yet fully offsetting the scale of energy cost escalation in FY2018," the company said, as it released results for 2017.

Underlying profit rose 112 percent to A$650.8 million, based mainly on cost-cutting. However the result was below market forecasts of A$682 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

And its final dividend of 5 cents a share was also below market forecasts for 7 cents.

However Bluescope said it would return a further A$150 million to shareholders through an on-market share buyback.

====================================================================

Mr O'Malley also revealed that BlueScope had been under investigation by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission over potential cartel conduct relating to the supply of steel products in Australia in late 2013 to mid-2014. He didn't want to go into specifics but said BlueScope was "fully co-operating".

Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/manufac...sella-to-be-ceo-20170818-gxzmud#ixzz4qLNUzgrF


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## notting (21 August 2017)

bigdog said:


> import competition and soaring power and gas prices



That alone should make you run for your life.



bigdog said:


> Bluescope said it would return a further A$150 million to shareholders through an on-market share buyback.



I guess the ceo who is now leaving is going to show the share price performance, he probably won't mention the buy backs.  Anyone buying Bluescope at these levels is an idiot and well Bluescope has been a major buyer!


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## brty (21 August 2017)

Don't we all just love high management fees for a company that knows that financial year is going to be worse than last year, yet has spent $150m since March on a share buy-back, and will continue to do so.
 I personally call good management when they pay off debt when they know performance is declining, and then do a buy back when share price is a lot lower.
Paying top dollar for a buy-back is probably helping some large players that wanted to reduce their holdings, not good for ordinary shareholders. They get bonuses for these type of decisions, not good!!

I agree with Notting.


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## Indoril (21 August 2017)

> Underlying profit rose 112 percent to A$650.8 million, based mainly on cost-cutting. However the result was below market forecasts of A$682 million



Some people are just never happy


----------



## Miner (21 August 2017)

notting said:


> That alone should make you run for your life.
> 
> 
> I guess the CEO who is now leaving is going to show the share price performance, he probably won't mention the buy backs.  Anyone buying Bluescope at these levels is an idiot and well BlueScope has been a major buyer!



Notting
You always have candid comments.
I have been watching BlueScope and having worked in a similar steel plant in my past life, I believe the market has over reacted and has been very greedy to push the expectations. Yes, Paul's legacy will be gone but the new CEO is highly competent too. The only concern for me would be the investigation and cat coming out of the pigeon.
A low (too low) dividend, high cash, and excellent EBIT are good for me in a long term scenario. But when Notting (there are few other posters too, when  I look up) says something, honestly I always think twice.
Could I ask SKC, So Cynical and Tech A if you guys are following BSL please make comments on BSL performance?


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## skc (21 August 2017)

Miner said:


> I have been watching BlueScope and having worked in a similar steel plant in my past life, I believe the *market has over reacted *and has *been very greedy to push the expectations. *




Yes and no as the two parts of your statement kind of contradicts each other. If the market has been "greedy" to push the expectations, then the market hasn't over reacted. Because the share price should not have been $14+ if it wasn't for the "greedy" expectations. A move back towards the "proper" expectation is not an overreaction - it's a warranted reaction.

And I do believe today's price action is very much warranted. The reported number is a slight miss, the FY18 H1 forecast is some 20-30% below market consensus, a very well respected CEO is leaving (doesn't matter who's succeeding, it is a negative at least temporarily), and there's a ACCC cartel investigation hidden somewhere in the presentation. The CEO and ACCC news alone would have each knocked 5-8% off the share price... the slight miss may be 3-5% given where the share has been trading, and the weak guidance is worth easily 15%. So it wouldn't surprise me if there's more weakness to come.

BSL has done really well to recover from a near death experience. It didn't seem that long ago that they were sharing a death bed with their half brother Arrium. They have managed their costs (and their industrial relations) very well, made a great acquisition in US and got the industry tailwind and regulations going their way. That's the success story of the last 2 years. 

BSL is a cyclical stock... May be this is just a temporary hiccup in a prolonged upward cycle, or it could be start of a weaker period. The current multiple isn't demanding, even with a weaker FY18. But the market may start focusing on some of the negative headwinds that BSL can't really control... and hence a negative bias on the share price.


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## Miner (22 August 2017)

Many thanks SKC for your thoughtful and balanced response as always and I fully agree. Yes, looking back, I did contradict when realising market was greedy and hence the escalated price of BSL. You were right on saying the commodity cycle for steel market.
All are good points and thanks to you as well as Notting for prompting me to think twice.
Like iron ore/nickel /cobalt price demands are related to steel so I will cautiously watch BSL movement. I do have some emotional bias with BSL having made, shaped and treated steel for more than 12 years in a slightly larger factory than BSL.
Returning to BSL performance, I was a bit surprised to see about 5% increase whereas BHPB made a bumper profit. Probably BHP's performance has given BSL holders some hope to have increased steel demand. BTW I believe BSL purchases iron ore from IOC Canada and not BHPB or any of the Australian based miners. If that is correct then it is ironic (?) because IOC Iron Ore Canada is owned by Rio Tinto.
I am not complaining as put a cautious purchase of BSL at 10.95 yesterday and good to see the jump even for a short-term pleasure.
Cheers




skc said:


> Yes and no as the two parts of your statement kind of contradicts each other. If the market has been "greedy" to push the expectations, then the market hasn't over reacted. Because the share price should not have been $14+ if it wasn't for the "greedy" expectations. A move back towards the "proper" expectation is not an overreaction - it's a warranted reaction.
> 
> And I do believe today's price action is very much warranted. The reported number is a slight miss, the FY18 H1 forecast is some 20-30% below market consensus, a very well respected CEO is leaving (doesn't matter who's succeeding, it is a negative at least temporarily), and there's a ACCC cartel investigation hidden somewhere in the presentation. The CEO and ACCC news alone would have each knocked 5-8% off the share price... the slight miss may be 3-5% given where the share has been trading, and the weak guidance is worth easily 15%. So it wouldn't surprise me if there's more weakness to come.
> 
> ...


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## notting (22 August 2017)

Indoril said:


> Some people are just never happy




My bottom line is that yes they punters were happy in front running it up to 3.50 after the government rescued it and they started reducing debt.
What happened after that is market madness.
It will see $6 in the medium term I guarantee it!


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## Miner (22 August 2017)

Good one Notting. Damn to BT Wrap. My yesterday's order can not be sold unless the transaction settled. So in two days time, BSL would probably be dived down and I will be bottomer again.


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## greggles (26 February 2018)

Bluescope Steel is extending its existing share buy-back by another $150 million after lifting its first-half net profit by 23% to $441.2 million. BSL sales revenue has increased by 7% to $5.48 billion as a result of higher steel prices. The company says it will pay a partially-franked interim dividend of 6c per share, compared to a fully franked 4c a year ago. 

Good results for Bluescope Steel that appear to have beaten expectations. Share price is currently up 66c to $16.15. Five months ago it was under $11.


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## bigdog (15 May 2018)

Expect SP to rise today

*ASX announcement today*
BlueScope today announced that it expects underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) for the six months ending 30 June 2018 to be around $680 million, compared to prior guidance of $606 million provided in February

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180515/pdf/43v0zfhmhw9bgg.pdf







6123


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## systematic (15 May 2018)

I just had a look at my trades for BSL.  This is one of 'those' where everything has been good, but could've been so much better!

I bought in November 2015 just below $3.90 and exited 6 months later ~$6.00 for a 55% gain.

I'm currently in at an average buy price of $14.12 (bought some in August 2017 and more in February 2018) which is another nice trade.

Had I simply held it'd be an almost 5-bagger in <3 years


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## greggles (11 July 2018)

BlueScope Steel about to make its third attempt at breaking through $18.75 in the last couple of months. The price action over the last week has been very bullish and there is no sign that BSL is ready to take a breather. 

Up another 2.5% this morning and currently trading at $18.27.


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## tech/a (11 July 2018)

Greggles
I don't see anything abnormal in the chart.
It looks like a ranging pattern with supporting volume.
I think its breathing normally.


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## greggles (11 July 2018)

tech/a said:


> Greggles
> I don't see anything abnormal in the chart.
> It looks like a ranging pattern with supporting volume.
> I think its breathing normally.




I agree with you about the ranging pattern. It's been trading between $16.75 and $18.75 for 10 weeks now, swinging up and down in a cyclical pattern. It's getting close to the upper limit of that range so I'm watching for a break above $18.75.


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## tech/a (11 July 2018)

Don't hold your breath


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## Craton (11 July 2018)

So breaking resistance would signal a trend higher (and also signal a possible trading opportunity), would that be the correct assumption greggles?


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## greggles (11 July 2018)

tech/a said:


> Don't hold your breath




I admit I may have gotten ahead of myself with BSL. It has since retraced to $17.93. I saw it bolt out the gate this morning and posted a little prematurely. I should have waited until it was closer to $18.75 and on higher volume.



Craton said:


> So breaking resistance would signal a trend higher (and also signal a possible trading opportunity), would that be the correct assumption greggles?




I thought that a clear break above $18.75 on high volume might have indicated the start of a new leg up. BSL is currently at almost 10 year highs. You have to go back to 2008 to find prices at these levels.


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## tech/a (11 July 2018)

I remember it at Under $2
Bought a parcel of 0


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## Craton (11 July 2018)

Cheers for the reply greggles.
I acquired BSL when it was spun out of BHP and later took cream off here and there as it matched onwards and upwards. Took up a couple of rights issues but due to circumstances I was unable to follow the stock and the market on a timely basis and so missed it tanking heavily until after the fact. Still hold a dozen or so parcels showing 10%+  profit and am happy to keep holding.


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## Craton (11 July 2018)

@tech/a, Google Fu informs me that the cost base formula on the demerger was 5.063% for every 5 BHP shares held i.e. 5.063% x $BHP acquisition price x 5. For me it was $1.78


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## greggles (13 July 2018)

BSL testing that $18.75 level today. Volume is average so it doesn't look like it's going to get through it. 

Next week?


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## tinhat (14 November 2018)

BSL has hit the 38.2% fibonacci retracement from its run between 07/15 to 07/18. The retracement in price has been despite a 1/4 billion dollar on-market share buy-back which in hindsight wasn't great timing (buying back at the top of the share price cycle). 

The next level of support appears to be just under $11 which was held in mid 2017 and which would be the 50% retracement level. If the price reverses before then then the uptrend commencing in late 2012 remains intact. 

According to shortman there is only 0.5% of the stock being shorted at the moment. The sell off started with the annual results so I guess someone is getting out. I myself have bloody hands from entering and averaging down through this sell-off.


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## Trav. (14 November 2018)

tinhat said:


> BSL has hit the 38.2% fibonacci retracement from its run between 07/15 to 07/18.




Thanks for posting this. I have not played with the fibonacci retracement much and I checked out the chart and found that I default to YTD or 1Y on my software. Definitely worth while taking a step back and applying different indicators. Although it appears the BSL chart looks very sick at the moment I will follow and monitor fib levels.

Thanks again @tinhat


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## Ann (14 November 2018)

I glanced at the BSL chart to see what I could see...was there anything interesting? Well yes there was! There is a very rare bearish chart formation called a Domed House or for the purists a Three Peaks Domed House. I haven't seen one of these on a chart since about 2006. Can't remember which company it was now. The purists who do wave counts may disagree. I reckon it is near as dammit to the real deal. Am I seeing things? Well probably, that's what chartists do!


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## tinhat (14 November 2018)

Here is the chart. Remember I'm not a T/A.


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## Ann (14 November 2018)

Really interesting tinhat!


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## Ann (14 November 2018)

I couldn't resist having a little play with the fibbos on my chart tinhat. I have drawn a chart on a slightly shorter time scale to your own six years. Mine is over two years. Bump, bump, bump! My chart does not argue against your chart. Your chart will probably resolve over a greater period of time.


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## tinhat (16 November 2018)

I Googled the chart formation you mentioned. How esoteric. Please keep posting such insights.


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## tinhat (16 November 2018)

Ann said:


> I couldn't resist having a little play with the fibbos on my chart tinhat. I have drawn a chart on a slightly shorter time scale to your own six years. Mine is over two years. Bump, bump, bump! My chart does not argue against your chart. Your chart will probably resolve over a greater period of time.
> 
> View attachment 90308




Just < $11 looks sweet.


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## tinhat (29 November 2018)

I'm calling the bottom on BSL! I bought some more yesterday. Am I right? It feels like someone has been selling out. Are they done? Will buyers step in and support at these ridiculously low prices? Will global trade concerns continue to dampen sentiment. Let's see.

On the fundamentals this company has a very strong balance sheet, no debt and a strong earnings forecast. The Morningstar consensus forecast for earnings for 2020 puts the current price on a PE of 7x those forecast earnings. Even if sales and earnings were to miss guidance the price is so low, it's a bargain. If earnings were to drop back to 2017 levels, the PE would still be <10x at the current share price.


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## tinhat (29 November 2018)

Oh my goodness. It's a super-duper clearance sale. I bought more today. Trading at below book value. The selling doesn't look done yet. Will supply get mopped up at these prices? There is good volume. A lot of shares are changing hands.


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## Trav. (29 November 2018)

@tinhat I'm no expert but I would keep some powder dry as I can see this going lower. RSI is in oversold territory but MACD is still taking a dive. 

I am interested to see if it continues to your 50% fib retracement at around $10.70.

Good luck !


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## tinhat (20 December 2018)

Trav. said:


> @tinhat I'm no expert but I would keep some powder dry as I can see this going lower. RSI is in oversold territory but MACD is still taking a dive.
> 
> I am interested to see if it continues to your 50% fib retracement at around $10.70.
> 
> Good luck !




We are there. My earlier calling of the bottom was premature!


----------



## Trav. (20 December 2018)

tinhat said:


> We are there. My earlier calling of the bottom was premature!



Mate just unlucky with your call, as the yanks are killing the market all round. We all should enjoy the holidays and wait until the new year.

Cheers


----------



## tinhat (2 January 2019)

We are at the 100% retracement level on Ann's chart and the 50% retracement level on my chart.

I couldn't help myself and picked up some more on New Year's Eve in the closing auction which turned out to be the day's low. Historically there is good support here stretching back to 2011.

I understand that steel is a very cyclical business and that the market is risk-off at the moment, but to me this business seems like a good buy. It has a very solid balance sheet. Earnings are quite geographically diverse these days too. The US business accounts for the same amount of revenue as the local business.

The CEO is an old hand at the steel business and I like the prudent approach of management towards shareholders. The timing of the further $250M on-market share buy-back couldn't be better.

Currently, the company is reviewing the US opperation with a view to reducing cost, investing in potential debottlenecking and expansion etc. I understand that they intend to update the market on their plans in Feb 2019. In the current risk-off environment, a decision by management to make any significant further investment in the US operations could be a catalyst for further stock price weakness. Who knows. I can understand that many investors will be waiting for further earnings outlook guidance.



tinhat said:


> View attachment 90304






Ann said:


> View attachment 90308


----------



## Ann (6 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> The CEO is an old hand at the steel business and I like the prudent approach of management towards shareholders. The timing of the further $250M on-market share buy-back couldn't be better.
> 
> Currently, the company is reviewing the US opperation with a view to reducing cost, investing in potential debottlenecking and expansion etc. I understand that they intend to update the market on their plans in Feb 2019. In the current risk-off environment, a decision by management to make any significant further investment in the US operations could be a catalyst for further stock price weakness. Who knows. I can understand that many investors will be waiting for further earnings outlook guidance.




I like buy-backs, it always seems to improve the price level of stocks. Can't say always because I haven't followed all the buy-backs. The exception is buy backs by company directors and other officials. That is bad. It is a kind of way to sell their holdings without being spotted selling their stock, very sneaky. But this is not one of those, this is a good one.
Added to that the chart shows a double bottom. Nice look as often a price rise will follow. Just putting up a no comment chart.


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## bigdog (15 January 2019)

Todays SP went up






*Motely Fool reported today*
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/01/14/why-the-bluescope-steel-share-price-is-sinking-today/

*Why the BlueScope Steel share price is sinking today*
Motley Fool Staff | January 14, 2019 |
15 Jan. at 10:36 am

The *BlueScope Steel Limited* (ASX: BSL) share price is down 5% to $11.56 today despite the US and Australia based steel manufacturer releasing no specific news to the market.

The group is forecasting H1 FY 2019 underlying earnings before interest and tax to come in around 10% higher than the $745 million delivered for the six-month period ending December 31 2018.

As a result of its recent success BlueScope recently announced plans to buy back up to $250 million worth of shares as part of its FY 2019 “capital management program” that includes maintaining $200 million to $400 million of net cash on its balance sheet.

Management estimated it has already returned nearly $850 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks since the 2017 financial year.

Management has flagged that demand in the US and Australia for its steel and other building products remains robust, with it also having growing building products in China, Vietnam and India. The share price has now lost around one third of its value since August 2018 as investors worry about geopolitical risks, in particular the tariff war between the US and China.


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## HelloU (15 January 2019)

_...per previous poster "The exception is buy backs by company directors and other officials. That is bad. It is a kind of way to sell their holdings without being spotted selling their stock, very sneaky."_



i cannot think of a method where ownership transfers occur (direct or beneficial) and dirs are not bound by disclosure rules for asx listings for dir holdings.....


----------



## tinhat (15 January 2019)

Haha. Click-bait crap. The article might well have been written by a bot. They really don't even try at credibility do they.



bigdog said:


> Todays SP went up
> 
> View attachment 91358
> 
> ...


----------



## peter2 (21 January 2019)

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread. 

Setup: Reversal coming off support, BO-NH    Grade A 
Buy limit: 12.60, iSL 11.00, initial target 18.50


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## tinhat (21 January 2019)

I was looking at the chart on Friday and thinking that it looks like an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming which could be a bullish indicator.


peter2 said:


> View attachment 91514


----------



## peter2 (21 January 2019)

BSL H&S pattern. Yes I agree, but BSL is lagging the market. There was a H&S pattern on the XAO and that triggered weeks ago and is almost at it's target. 

BSL is held back by the rising USD and steel tariff discussions between US and China. These need to be resolved before BSL can boom.


----------



## tinhat (21 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> BSL is held back by the rising USD and steel tariff discussions between US and China. These need to be resolved before BSL can boom.




In terms of the strength of the business I don't see why. 40% of revenues are generated in the USA and a further 40% are generated in Oz. I can understand disruption of markets, resultant volatility and the outlook for global growth might be headwinds, but other than the global macro implications I don't understand why the current tariff policy of the USA is specifically bad for BSL. In terms of market sentiment, well that is another matter.

I bought some more today. It will be interesting to see the interim results which are not expected out until the end of Feb. At the end of November they gave guidance confirming their 1H19 earnings forecast so of course any miss will not go unpunished by the market.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2019)

I love it when I am wrong and the market is right! Lucky I stopped for lunch a bit earlier today. I noticed BSL was $11.80 so bought some more.


----------



## Ann (23 January 2019)

Let's look at a chart....


----------



## ducati916 (23 January 2019)

Ann said:


> Let's look at a chart....
> 
> View attachment 91600





Looks bullish to me.

jog on
duc


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## bigdog (25 February 2019)

Motley Reported
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/25/...ngs-record-and-flags-aggressive-us-expansion/

*BluseScope breaks earnings record and flags aggressive US expansion*
Brendon Lau | February 25, 2019

Steel products maker *BlueScope Steel Limited* (ASX: BSL) posted record first half underlying earnings this morning that was ahead of guidance and is promising more growth at its full year.

Shareholders will be hoping that the news will support the sagging BSL share price, which has collapsed 30% since the last reporting season when the *S&P/ASX 200* (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) index has only dipped 2%.

But it’s not only the all-time high earnings and outlook that will capture attention. News that two key risk factors that have weighed heavily on the stock weren’t enough to derail growth will also be warmly welcomed.

* What’s eating the BlueScope share price? *
The first is the housing construction slowdown in the US and Australia. The second is the US steel spreads, which is the profit margin of steel mills.

The home building indices in the US and Australia have softened significantly over the past six months and a rebound is looking elusive.

Meanwhile, the abnormally high profit margins from US steel makers since US President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on steel imports into the country are easing back.

There’s little doubt these issues have taken a bite out of BlueScope’s earnings but their impact may not be as big as sceptics have feared.

* Record earnings and outlook *
Management posted a 62% surge in underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) over the same period last year to $325.4 million – it’s best half year performance ever.

The 1HFY19 figure is 14% above what the company posted in 2HFY18. That’s significant because management was guiding for a 10% increase.

What’s more, it’s US business North Star and its Australian Steel division posted strong growth. Its steel products may have some exposure to housing construction, but it’s predominantly used in infrastructure, industrial and commercial construction projects.

The two divisions that posted a loss, Building Products Asia and North America and Buildings North America, make up a relatively small proportion of group EBIT (under 12%).

Management is fixing these issues and is expecting to lift EBIT for Building Products Asia and North America by $40 million in FY20 (enough to return it to growth) and noted that sales of buildings (in the Buildings North America division) to industrial, healthcare, manufacturing, warehousing, aviation and energy customers remain strong.

* Foolish takeaway *
However, investors may be disappointed that BlueScope isn’t lifting its interim dividend, which is flat at 6 cents per share.

Management also warned that the current half will be weaker than the first half, which is probably due to weakening steel spreads.

Nonetheless, BlueScope is tipping that full year FY19 underlying EBIT will increase by 10% over last year and its looking at an aggressive expansion of its US business.

BlueScope is a buy in my book as it provides good exposure to a range of sectors in the US and because the stock is cheap.

Naysayers will point out that consensus forecast is tipping a drop in profits in FY20 but I think the bad news is already in the price with the stock trading on a price-earnings of 8 times for that year.


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## Ann (25 February 2019)

*Bluescope's US expansion plans remain on track after record first half*
_Bluescope said plans for US expansion remain on track as strong demand for its steel products drove a record $624.3 million net profit for the December half with expectations of a 10 per cent lift in earnings before interest at tax for the current year to $1.269 billion.

Bluescope chief executive Mark Vassella said the result was driven by strong demand, and profit margins in both the US and Australia along with a tailwind from foreign exchange rates. More....
_
Here is an EquiVolume chart which shows any price level pressure. BSL looks fine as far as no major selling pressure at any level.


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## tinhat (2 April 2019)

With the company now about $95m into its second $250m share buy-back, building demand is causing the share price to gap up on volume. Of interest to me is that today the share price closed above the 200 day moving average for the first time in six months. I hold.


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## peter2 (31 May 2019)

Sentiment for BSL has changed dramatically. There's been no news and the buyback program continues. Now at major support level.


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## debtfree (31 May 2019)

What a perfect short trade @peter2


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## tinhat (30 July 2019)

I'm out for a very small profit. Happy to sit on the cash for the minute and pursue better opportunities elsewhere in due course. A good solid company but at the wrong end of the cycle and sentiment to be holding.


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## bigdog (30 August 2019)

ASX announcement today "BlueScope Responds to ACCC Proceedings"


*uploaded file below to read full report*


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## tinhat (30 August 2019)

*ACCC sues BlueScope over alleged 'serious' cartel behaviour, SMH*


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## barney (30 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> I'm out for a very small profit.




That was perfect timing back in July

Market seems to like a bit of argy bargy … BSL up 30 cents today off the back of the litigation story


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## bigdog (8 October 2019)

ASX announcement today
8/10/2019 10:03:48 AM  Update on Regulatory Proceedings (PDF 70.0 KB) 






Since the 30 August announcement, the BlueScope share price has fallen 6.65% lower to $11.66, prior to this morning’s open. 

However, the BlueScope share price remains up 7.47% since the start of the year and BlueScope still boasts a market cap of just under $6 billion.


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## peter2 (9 December 2019)

We've dropped the BSL ball since the last post. In late Oct19 BSL broke through HR at 13.20. This would mark the start of a new up trend for me on the weekly chart. Having missed that setup my next opportunity is the BO > 14.67 (see the daily chart). Price is now at 15.00 which is an old high. 

BSL has shown relative strength (vs. XAO) since the BO in Oct (wkly) and earlier on the daily RSC (top pane). Price didn't fall much last week in the  two day sell off and has recovered quickly.


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## qldfrog (9 December 2019)

@peter2 , on a stock so easily affected by a Trump speech or a BOC decision, do you take this into account or do you purely look at it from a pure chartist point of view? Not bothering if it produces steel in Australia, could be selling sushi in Norway who cares attitude?
This is where i find it very difficult when i try to add a non systemic input....


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## peter2 (9 December 2019)

I tend to not worry about outside interference when trading weekly charts as the aim is to hold for the medium term and the iSL are usually well outside the normal volatility level. It concerns me when I'm trading very short term, but there's nothing I can do about it. I just have to take the good and the bad. 

Yes, I do form an opinion on an industry and company. This is generally a bad thing. It's saved me on many occasions but I've also passed on setups that have turned into monster trends. 

I remind myself that my job is to start trades at the best time and price that are defined by my strategies. If I'd bought BSL at the BO at 13.20 I won't be concerned by Trump now that the price is at 15.00. Buying now at 15.00 is much more risky than at 13.20. We're closer the the end of the trend.


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## sptrawler (24 February 2020)

Could be a big drop for Bluescope, 70% drop in first half profits
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...irus-impact-profit-dives-20200224-p543mv.html


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## bigdog (19 March 2020)

ASX announcement 
19/03/2020 9:01:23 AM  Market Update and Withdrawal of Earnings Guidance (uploaded below)

Market liked ANN


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## Dona Ferentes (11 May 2021)

BSL at a 10 year high  ... closing above $23.00 

another aspect of the BSL story has been sorting out exactly what the company wants to achieve.  There is a piece, self-serving but with elements of truth, about an activist investor driving change:


> _Since founding Sandon Capital in 2009, Gabriel Radzyminski has built the asset manager and its market-beating returns on a mix of value investing and shareholder activism._



One example of a successful turnaround in value is Sandon’s 2015 investment in steel-maker BlueScope.



> _“At the time BlueScope was described as a pariah in the market. I think they were losing something like $100 million a year just from the Port Kembla blast furnace,”_ Radzyminski says. _“But we saw it as actually one of the cheapest and best steel companies in the world. Most Australian investors overlooked the fact they owned a 50 per cent stake in the North Star joint venture in the US with Cargill, which is arguably the single best North American steel asset that exists today.”_




Radzyminski says .. Sandon argued BlueScope should mothball the loss-making Port Kembla furnace in New South Wales to unlock more value in the overall business'


> “_And so the company eventually came out with a plan where they put the gauntlet down to the employees to say look, we need to save X-hundred million dollars a year out of Port Kembla or we’re going to shut it down,”  _he says_. “It worked, and I think it’s one of the great unsung success stories of Australian industrial relations because the company, the unions, the employees and to a degree the state government all worked together to make those savings to keep the thing alive.”_




Sandon eventually sold its BlueScope shares for “a few multiples of what it paid” after BlueScope’s management went on to buy Cargill out for 100 per cent ownership of the US North Star asset.

-- how much is his work, and how much the inertia of change happening anyhow, is moot. Good to see BSL positioned well for the emerging post Covid economic growth.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 July 2021)

BSL now $24.50
QUOTE
Earnings before interest and tax would total $1.72 billion for the year ended 30 Jun, well past analyst forecasts for EBIT just below $1.6 billion.
EBIT in the June half to hit $1.19 billion, up from previous guidance of $1.08B.
 .


> ...in _the US, where BlueScope is enjoying the best conditions in generations, as demand from the automotive, manufacturing and  non residential construction sectors propel prices of hot rolled coil (HRC) steel to levels not seen in decades. A year ago, HRC prices were sitting at $US428 per short ton; now, prices are  about $US1800, and lead times to get steel delivered have blown out to 10 weeks._





> _Demand in Australia and New Zealand was strong, with growth in the construction, distribution and manufacturing sectors helping domestic steel mill sales rise above 1.3 million tonnes, the highest level since 2008.  Local EBIT jumped 60 per cent in the second half compared with the first, suggesting a full-year  result of about $673 million, compared with the year-earlier $305  million._


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## Miner (5 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> BSL now $24.50
> QUOTE
> Earnings before interest and tax would total $1.72 billion for the year ended 30 Jun, well past analyst forecasts for EBIT just below $1.6 billion.
> EBIT in the June half to hit $1.19 billion, up from previous guidance of $1.08B.
> .



In one year BSL price is $15.81 about
Stock specialist initiated a buy but price dived down. I do not believe these recommendations when in front they said buy, inside strong sell.


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## Dona Ferentes (15 August 2022)

*BlueScope *today reported FY2022 net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.81 billion, a 135 per cent, or $1.62 billion increase over FY2021. 

Announcing the result, Managing Director and CEO, Mark Vassella said,


> “_Underlying EBIT for the year was $3.79 billion, a record performance in BlueScope’s 20-year history as a listed company. This was an outstanding result, with tremendous performances across our business portfolio._”





> “_BlueScope delivered an underlying EBIT of $1.58 billion in 2H FY2022, the second best half-year result on record – beaten only by the 1H FY2022 result of $2.20 billion.” “We saw continued strong demand for our steel products and solutions despite recent macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility. We worked hard to improve our service levels which have been impacted by supply chain and pandemic related disruptions. .... _” Mr Vassella said.





> “_Operating cash flow, after capital expenditure including on the North Star expansion, was $1.71 billion. From this, investments of $1 billion were made in the US acquiring the MetalX ferrous recycling business and the Coil Coatings business. These were well considered and well executed investments in our US growth plan_.”





> _“I’m pleased to state the balance sheet still remains strong with $367 million net cash at 30 June 2022. Our working capital remains elevated in the context of strong demand and prices and ongoing supply chain disruptions_,” Mr Vassella said. “_BlueScope has delivered for shareholders in FY2022. The Company made nearly $1 billion in shareholder returns, with $344 million in dividends and $638 million in on-market buy-backs_.”




 The Board has today approved an increase to the share buy-back program to allow up to a further $500 million to be bought over the next 12 months, and a *final unfranked dividend of 25 cents per share*. Having exhausted Australian tax losses in FY2022, the Company expects to be able to begin to frank dividends in FY2023


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