# What happened today?



## wipz (24 October 2007)

HI guys, any idea what caused the market to have a sharp turn and end down today?? I am puzzled.
Possibly something to do with the Merrill Lynch loss?  If so, what does that speak for tomorrow expected performance??


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## paperclip (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

i'd say its the CPI result that came out. probably means an interest rate rise next  month. only my opinion, although the DOW futures are down big time ATM but i dont think to many take to much notice of them any more
cheers PC


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## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wipz said:


> HI guys, any idea what caused the market to have a sharp turn and end down today?? I am puzzled.
> Possibly something to do with the Merrill Lynch loss?  If so, what does that speak for tomorrow expected performance??




Quite a few things, the prospects of a further rate rise on the back of poor CPI results.

The second would be this Merrill Lynch business; they're going to report their losses tonight; and there's a chance it'll be considerably greater then expected.

Markets are a tad fragile at the moment, I guess; my theory is just to ride it all out.


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## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

According to number of breaking news, the XAO started to turn around when the report from New York Times saying that 

"Merrill Lynch & Co., the U.S. securities firm that pushed into subprime lending last year, will add about $2.5 billion of writedowns to the $5 billion it disclosed earlier this month"

This news brought back the concern over U.S. subprime mortgage crisis

Tomorrow will be another RED day.

You can see the US Futures already pointing to RED. (-54 points)


cheers.


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## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



qr2007 said:


> According to number of breaking news, the XAO started to turn around when the report from New York Times saying that
> 
> "Merrill Lynch & Co., the U.S. securities firm that pushed into subprime lending last year, will add about $2.5 billion of writedowns to the $5 billion it disclosed earlier this month"
> 
> ...





To say tomorrow will be another "*RED*" day seems unfounded. You can't say what *will* happen without a doubt, sorry - but you've already repeated this same comment on multiple threads, and it's ticked me off :

I don't like people who run these little scare campaigns

You know as well as I do, all of this is just pre-open. *If* the news isn't as bad as what people are fearing, well heck, we may even see a neutral to green day.

And considering the sellers already got out today in the ASX, even if there is bad news in the US overnight - our damage may be minimal (since we already pre-emptively gave up our rally)

You may be right, I'm just saying - don't state that "we will 100% have a terrible day tomorrow"


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## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

Sorry my friend ... I did not mean that at all.

Just throw my own worries.

Thanks again.

Cheers


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## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



qr2007 said:


> Sorry my friend ... I did not mean that at all.
> 
> Just throw my own worries.
> 
> ...





No, I'm sorry 

You've caught me in a bit of a cranky mood tonight! 
I like to think positive, and I just don't like all this negativity :


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## roland (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



Nyden said:


> No, I'm sorry
> 
> You've caught me in a bit of a cranky mood tonight!
> I like to think positive, and I just don't like all this negativity :




Red or Green, it's all good stuff. Buy on Red, sell on Green. Sell enough on the Green to prepare for the next Red. If you missed selling on the Green or didn't sell enough, ride out the next Red and wait for the next Green.

Amber is a real pain in the butt!


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## wayneL (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



Nyden said:


> ...I just don't like all this negativity :



It's only negative if you're long.


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## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

So do I my friend, I always like to think positive but I had a bad day today as I went long just before the news came out. ......

I hope I will be wrong tomorrow.

Cheers.


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## qr2007 (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



roland said:


> Red or Green, it's all good stuff. Buy on Red, sell on Green. Sell enough on the Green to prepare for the next Red. If you missed selling on the Green or didn't sell enough, ride out the next Red and wait for the next Green.
> 
> Amber is a real pain in the butt!




Roland

I love your post mate??? you are right .... They both are good stuff, just the matter of how to play with them.

Amber is a real pain !!!!! hahaha


Thanks.


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## trendsta (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

Looks like it was the ML news weighing the market...


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## Nyden (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> It's only negative if you're long.




You laugh now, but wait until the dow closes 100 pts higher 
...that'll be what happens in my dreams tonight at least, some pre-sleep liquor will see to that!


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## wayneL (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



Nyden said:


> You laugh now, but wait until the dow closes 100 pts higher
> ...that'll be what happens in my dreams tonight at least, some pre-sleep liquor will see to that!



I'll still be laughing. The US market has been a joke for some time.... but, never fight the ticker.


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## roland (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> I'll still be laughing. The US market has been a joke for some time.... but, never fight the ticker.




The US market, albeit a joke can be quite a lot of fun. Made a bucket on IMMR on the Nasdaq and worth a look if you are into US stocks (Haptics and Force Feedback). CHINA (CDC Corp) on the NYSE is my current interest, currently at $7.38 broker consensus $11 +

P.S. Our exchange rate has evened out the playing field


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## wayneL (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



roland said:


> The US market, albeit a joke can be quite a lot of fun.



I know! I've been nocturnal for years.


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## roland (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> I know! I've been nocturnal for years.




Wow, you are keen - I need my sleep. I plant the seed the night before and see if it has sprouted in the morning


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## kransky (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



roland said:


> Red or Green, it's all good stuff. Buy on Red, sell on Green. Sell enough on the Green to prepare for the next Red. If you missed selling on the Green or didn't sell enough, ride out the next Red and wait for the next Green.
> 
> Amber is a real pain in the butt!




Brilliant post mate!


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## Bushman (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

What do you see in the set of data below amongst all the green? Global markets will only see 'ML LOSS $7.9b QRT 3'. Perhaps now ML is the red canary in the coal mine. Lots have been posting that for sometime now. Wiser analysts than me. 

 At least we know why the Dow tanked last time. $7.9b US is a big bad black hole to fund in anyone's balance sheet. 

Far out. Who was teaching liquidity and risk 101 at Merril's a few years back? Must have been the greediest optimist since Allan Bond. 

To the wise owl who said 'sell when green, buy when read', you will have your chance tomorrow. Seems to be playing out just like July/August to me. Just this time it was the industrials that set it off. Come January, who will it be this time or will disaster be averted? Oh well there will probably be a relief rally before the next skeleton falls a clattering from amongst the armani suits in the Wall Street cupboard.  Maybe Stan O'Neal started the bush fires in California to destroy some housing stock and stimulate the housing market. That, or a rate rise, or a war. What a f**king joke the land of the currency printing press has become.   

PS: I was an optimist in August. But $8b in one hit for ML with $Xb to come will make the next 6 to 12 mths interesting indeed. At a market cap of $58b, that is 10% of the company that has just evaporated as fast as the money was printed. Staggering really. 


'SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Among the companies whose shares are likely to see active trading during Wednesday's session are Boeing, Symantec, Merrill Lynch and Genzyme. 

Boeing is forecast to report third-quarter earnings of $1.24 a share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. 

Symantec Corp. is expected to report earnings of 26 cents a share in the fiscal second quarter. 

Merrill Lynch Co. is projected to post net loss of 45 cents a share in the third quarter. 

Genzyme Corp. is expected to post third-quarter earnings of 87 cents a share. 

Anheuser Busch Cos. is forecast to report earnings of 93 cents a share in the third quarter. 

Kellogg Co. is estimated to report third-quarter earnings of 73 cents a share. 

General Dynamics Corp. is projected to post earnings of $1.25 in the third quarter. 

Allegheny Technologies Inc. is forecast to post earnings of $1.86 in the third quarter. 

Ryder System Inc. is expected to report third-quarter earnings of $1.13 a share. 

Boston Properties Inc. is projected to report earnings of 67 cents a share in the third quarter. 

Moody's Corp. is estimated to post earnings of 55 cents a share in the third quarter. 

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. is expected to report third-quarter earnings of 44 cents a share. 

Fidelity National Information Services Inc. is expected to report third-quarter earnings of 64 cents a share. 

Ameriprise Financial Inc. is forecast to post earnings of 99 cents a share in the third quarter. 

Corning Inc.is estimated to post earnings of 37 cents a share in the third quarter. 

Occidental Petroleum Corp. is projected to report third-quarter earnings of $1.31 a share. 

Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co.'s is forecast to report third-quarter earnings of 60 cents a share. 

ConocoPhillips is expected to report earnings of $2.17 a share in the third quarter. 

Monster Worldwide Inc.  is estimated to post 33 cents a share in third-quarter earnings.'


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## stoxclimber (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

Unlike what the financial press implies, there's not always a reason for everything.


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## rub92me (24 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wipz said:


> HI guys, any idea what caused the market to have a sharp turn and end down today?? I am puzzled.
> Possibly something to do with the Merrill Lynch loss?  If so, what does that speak for tomorrow expected performance??



In technical terms, we saw a tent shape today. You don't want to be in a tent when bears are around.


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## wayneL (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> I'll still be laughing. *The US market has been a joke for some time*.... but, never fight the ticker.



Has there ever been such a clear example of this truth. A 200 pt turnaround and talk of further Fed action. This is totally irrational. Further Fed action means the economy is in deeper doo-doo than initially thought. How can this be bullish?

But as the second part of my comment goes... never fight the tape. 

(actually there where really clear trading patterns for a daytrader today... can't moan too much )


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## Porper (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> (actually there where really clear trading patterns for a daytrader today... can't moan too much )




There was a great a,b,c pattern formed a couple of hours ago on the Aussie 200 cash contract, suppose it only mirrors the Dow at that time of the morning, text book in fact.

We then had a clear wave 1, which retraced almost to the cent 61.8% before taking off again.I don't day trade  but it was clear as day.

It does seem that the smart money is buying into bad news although I don't have the volume data.


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## Pommiegranite (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

another red day on the Dow....lol

Who wants to be out before Countrywide reports on Friday?


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## Nyden (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> Has there ever been such a clear example of this truth. A 200 pt turnaround and talk of further Fed action. This is totally irrational. Further Fed action means the economy is in deeper doo-doo than initially thought. How can this be bullish?
> 
> But as the second part of my comment goes... never fight the tape.
> 
> (actually there where really clear trading patterns for a daytrader today... can't moan too much )




Well, wasn't the 100 pt gain I was hoping for, but it seems my dreams almost came true! : Neutral day is always better than a red when you're holding!


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## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

It is an interesting article to read

"Jim Rogers quits dollar after declaring US recession"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/24/bcnrog124.xml

Should we start a new thread for it???

watch out.


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## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*

another one

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071024/investment_rogers.html?.v=3
any comments?


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## Sir Burr (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> This is totally irrational.




From Yahoo Finance about the Dow today:

"When the indices retested their early morning lows around 2:00 pm ET and held, buyers stampeded back into the market and drove the Dow back to positive territory an hour later.

The resilience has spurred additional buying efforts, and most likely short-covering activity that has contributed to the expeditious rebound effort."

SB


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## bigdog (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



Sir Burr said:


> From Yahoo Finance about the Dow today:
> 
> "When the indices retested their early morning lows around 2:00 pm ET and held, buyers stampeded back into the market and drove the Dow back to positive territory an hour later.
> 
> ...




Wall Street recovered from steep losses Wednesday amid hopes for an imminent interest rate cut, but stocks still closed down in response to Merrill Lynch & Co.'s credit-related losses and a sharp drop in existing home sales.

The Dow Jones industrials fell in morning trading by as many as 200 points after the market got one of its most-feared scenarios: Not only is the housing implosion dampening corporate profits, it appears to be accelerating.

But the blue chip index reversed direction later in the day, briefly bobbing into positive territory as rumors circulated that the Federal Reserve -- scheduled to meet next week -- might be lowering the discount rate before then. The central bank has also been adding a substantial amount of liquidity to the financial system over the last three days.


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## nomore4s (25 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



wayneL said:


> Has there ever been such a clear example of this truth. A 200 pt turnaround and talk of further Fed action. This is totally irrational. Further Fed action means the economy is in deeper doo-doo than initially thought. How can this be bullish?
> 
> But as the second part of my comment goes... never fight the tape.
> 
> (actually there where really clear trading patterns for a daytrader today... can't moan too much )




It certainly is strange atm, more bad news and the Dow has a 200pt reversal. Oh well, who can understand the markets. All this sweeping under the carpet is just going to make things worse when it all finally hits the fan, imo.

It could get pretty ugly if the Fed don't cut rates, although I have no doubt they will cut rates.


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## Bushman (27 October 2007)

*Re: What happened today*



Pommiegranite said:


> another red day on the Dow....lol
> 
> Who wants to be out before Countrywide reports on Friday?




Well Countrywide have come and out and announced a $1.2b loss for the quarter...and an expectation that they will be back in profitable territory in the 4 quarter.

I was convinced that Merril's would bring the market down again but it seems the market was expecting a $7.9b write down. 

Almost the end of the US reporting season. Does that mean the Dow now pushes up to 14,000 and beyond in the lead up to Christmas? Looks like the market trusts the investment banks to cut the sub prime CDO cancer from their balance sheets and to move on strongly. The only loser from all this subprime mess will be the few million odd US customers who took out sub prime loans with honeymoon clauses and who will now take their place on the financial scrap heap. 

I have given up trying to pick the market for the next year. I still think our friend Volatility will be lurking in the woods. But the market and its participants seem to be liking the bigger picture and this keeps dragging the lows back to neutral and beyond. Crazy days.


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