# AUM - Australian Mining Investments



## ALFguy (15 June 2006)

What a ride this has had over June.

I know I'm stating the obvious with it being front runner on the stock comp for Lesm, but with a 37.5c start and a rapid rise to almost 60c, it's rocketed up today a further 27% to rest(?) at 75c!!

Just makes me sit wide eyed


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## pussycat2005 (16 June 2006)

it cracked $1.00 today 
Anyone have any idea what has caused the surge!


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## pussycat2005 (19 June 2006)

opened at 97.5 
high 1.41
presently trading at 1.20 

drilling results coming out possibly this week
this has got to be the hottest stock on the board
so why are you guys ignoring it?


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## NettAssets (19 June 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> opened at 97.5
> high 1.41
> presently trading at 1.20
> 
> ...




Drilling results out
see Ann 15/06/06

Too late for the excitement now
I'd want to be one of the sellers!


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## lesm (19 June 2006)

Although people are not discussing it, it  does not necessarily mean that they are ignoring it.

From my side it is a purely technical selection using one of two new breakout systems that I have been developing and testing over the last couple of months.

Never even heard of them prior to them coming up in the exploration prior to this months competition.

Looks like it is running on steroids at the moment, but it has responded very positively to the recent announcements over the last couple of weeks.

They are expecting the results of recent assays to be issued later this week, so it will be interesting to see how the rice reacts.

It is possible that this may be starting to be factored into the price, based on thismornings activity, but time will tell.

Cheers.


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## pussycat2005 (19 June 2006)

Thx for your reply! 

It's been a great stock to watch, each breakout is supported including this one which indicates to me that this is a buy and hold. Most day traders are being flushed out. 

I'm holding and hoping to see it crack $2.00 on great assay results.  :


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## ALFguy (19 June 2006)

Hey Pusscat, did you buy in today?

Can't predict where this one is going. Seems to be soaring a little fast for my liking.

Although good assays will only fuel interest.

Why oh why didn't I grab some earlier on!


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## ALFguy (22 June 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> I'm holding and hoping to see it crack $2.00 on great assay results.  :




The way this thing is going, it may do that without any results!  :


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## Sean K (22 June 2006)

Has this really gone from .25c to $1.30 in a month? Holy goat! Surely not!


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## lesm (22 June 2006)

Looking like a little rocket, $1.45 at the moment. Early high of $1.465.

Started at $0.375 at the start of the month.


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## ALFguy (22 June 2006)

High of 1.56 now....

I haven't been around long enough to say but has this kind of thing happened before? I had it in my head (for some reason) that no price could move this quickly!

Announcement due any moment.


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## Sean K (22 June 2006)

They must have discovered Olympic Dam II!


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## Prospector (22 June 2006)

As Lesm said a few days ago, just because people arent talking about it doesnt mean they are ignoring it


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## lesm (22 June 2006)

ALFguy

Price movements like this can occur, especially in the lower end (price wise) stocks, where you can see stock price increase from 100% to 300%+.

They can also decreased in price as fast as they increase on occasion, in otherwords the prcie can turn on a dime, so to speak.

If I recall correctly, tech/a produced stats in this regard some time ago on the reefcap forum.


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## ALFguy (23 June 2006)

Market advised drill results expected 28-29th (next week).

"A further 20 drill holes have been completed since drill hole DORC 85 was reported. Drilling is continuing with rewarding success."



Should peak buyer confidence.


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## michael_selway (23 June 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Market advised drill results expected 28-29th (next week).
> 
> "A further 20 drill holes have been completed since drill hole DORC 85 was reported. Drilling is continuing with rewarding success."
> 
> ...




This one will drop back quite a bit im pretty sure now

thx

MS


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## ALFguy (23 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> This one will drop back quite a bit im pretty sure now
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Think you're right Michael after watching this today, but can't see it tumbling too far.

With results out mid week, surely there will be some keen to get in on the action, which will help push this up. That's my newbie view anyway   

Would love to hear a more experienced view of how and why this might fall?


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## Sean K (24 June 2006)

Buy the rumour and sell the fact. It'll probably drop once everyone knows what the story is.


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## ALFguy (25 June 2006)

I see this gaining interest over the start of the week in light of a definite announcement.

I'll put money on it to top $2.00 before end of month. What am I saying....I have put money on it!!!


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## lesm (25 June 2006)

ALFguy,

In an earlier post I mentioned that tech/a had produced some figures on the performance (%gain) of stocks. The discussion on this can be found at the URL below:

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000002;p=2

Below are the figures produced by tech/a in 2002:

"145 Stocks at some time in the last 12 mths have risen 300%
170 have risen 250%
261 have risen 200% and
445 have risen 100%

There were NO stocks of more than $1 which rose 100-300% last year ...."


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## ALFguy (25 June 2006)

lesm said:
			
		

> There were NO stocks of more than $1 which rose 100-300% last year ...."




Thanks for that Lesm,

I'm still awaiting approval for access to that forum.

From the above statement, are you (or Tech/a) saying that at a starting price of $1, none rose by those percentages? Or that at the time in question, none of these stocks were at $1 ?

I assume the latter, in which case that doesn't mean AUM can't reach $2, but simply that it won't hold right? Which is fine for short term trading.

Sorry, am still a newbie and currently finding my footing


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## lesm (25 June 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> From the above statement, are you (or Tech/a) saying that at a starting price of $1, none rose by those percentages? Or that at the time in question, none of these stocks were at $1 ?
> 
> I assume the latter, in which case that doesn't mean AUM can't reach $2, but simply that it won't hold right? Which is fine for short term trading.
> 
> Sorry, am still a newbie and currently finding my footing




My understanding of the first statement is that at the point in time tech/a undertook the study no shares at $1 or above rose by those percentages.

I would defer to tech/a for further clarification, as this is his work.I was using it as a reference to an earlier question. I haven't run across any more recent studies in this area.

AUM started below $1. In terms of it reaching $2 that remains to be seen, as the exuberance we have seen in the last couple of weeks will start to slow down. Keep you eye on how they perform this week as they will eventually drop back and stabilise.

The systems that I used to select this stock are designed for short-term (5-10 day) trades, but every now and then you can snag a runner like this one.

We were all newbies once and are still learning. Feel free to ask your questions, there is always someone around who is happy to help.

Cheers and good luck in your trading.


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## ALFguy (27 June 2006)

Thanks Lesm, really do appreciate all the input you and the other traders/investors give on this site.

In my very simplistic view, I would assume that come the announcement Wed/Thur (assuming all good), that the price will naturally rise.
Given that, I'm assuming the price movement today was general interest in this probability.

Following the announcement and a small peak, it'll start to drop to a more realisic figure.

Sound probable?


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## StockyBailx (30 June 2006)

Quite an impressive stock this one. Certianly made the 2$ mark with a 20.5% rise of 0.46 today. Never really seen a stock move as sharp as this one and remain constant as it has done. How long will it last? At first I thought it must of had a extremly good trading summary, but really compared with other low priced mining stock, it is not much different. Then it cloomed on me, that this one is the same mining company that lost two minners, traped in the cave of rocks for a couple of weeks or so. I don't know this in reality but for me its the only answer to its success. Making money off the donation proceeds, But its only a quess and probally won't pan out in reality.
Anyway I only wish I was more active at the time of its rise, I think I may of noticed the stock and payed in. Now I think its to late and like all creatures great and small what comes up must come down.
What do you guys think buy or sell?


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## pussycat2005 (30 June 2006)

I've been trading it since the 90's  and I bought some today at 2.80

Why? because I was expecting a retrace back to at least 2.20  when you consider it jumped on close from 2.00 to 2.24 in the space of 5 mins yesterday.

i bought  2.00 and never expected to get 2.67 when I sold on open! this morning! 

It's extremely volatile but I am impressed how it can hold its gains! unbelievable 

Anyway I was really expecting to buy a lot cheaper in the afternoon because it was the last day of the financial year and call me an idiot i thought we would see a huge sell off starting from 3.30 onwards - aum just kept climbing  so i thought buggar it! people are saying their resources are worth $4 or $5 

Do a comparative study of similar stocks in the materials sector and you will see that its still quite cheap as far as market caps are concerned!

Here's an interesting article from mining news! 




> New resource for market darling
> 
> Michael Vaughan
> Thursday, June 29, 2006
> ...






Good luck everyone!


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## michael_selway (1 July 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> I've been trading it since the 90's  and I bought some today at 2.80
> 
> Why? because I was expecting a retrace back to at least 2.20  when you consider it jumped on close from 2.00 to 2.24 in the space of 5 mins yesterday.
> 
> ...




This ones crazy but looks like it may fall back down quite a bit soon.


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## pussycat2005 (1 July 2006)

how can it go down when its drying up the sell side completely! 

more drill results to come  in July August


"....Furthermore, the Board of Directors in consultation with our Geological Consultants, have elected to employ the services of a second RC Drill Rig and Multiple Diamond Core Rigs. We are currently negotiating the services of a contractor to drill +500m deep core drill holes to be drilled on all three projects. This will significantly increase and upgrade the resource potential of the Project.

Five deep holes are planned to test under the main Double Oxide orebody as part of our current accumulation of geological data for our new interim JORC Resource due in late July early August...."


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## alankew (2 July 2006)

Lads and lasses anyone know if the directors involved in this company are involved in similar companies? Thanks.


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## chennyleeeee (3 July 2006)

Still going nuts today, already up 10 per cent.

CHEN


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## ALFguy (3 July 2006)

Hit 20% earlier!

Can you imagine if you bought this at 30c! An increase of around 960% so far.
Gulp.

Has this really got any legs left in it?!


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## shaneric (3 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Hit 20% earlier!
> 
> Can you imagine if you bought this at 30c! An increase of around 960% so far.
> Gulp.
> ...




We shall see... I dipped my toe in at 3.20.


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## lesm (3 July 2006)

This has taken the shape of a classical trade where demand has outstripped supply, thereby pushing the higher and higher. Basic supply and demand.

In the early moves the sell side was very sparse and the buyers were stacking up to get in and the sellers were only coming in as the price rose higher.

On 19/6 we saw what looked like a possible key reversal day, but the following days did not confirm the possible reversal and AUM pushed higher.

On Thursday (29/6) the highest volume was reached and the AUM moved higher by 0.24 cents during the clsoing auction as buyers clambered to get in.

The following day (Friday 30th), there was decrease in volume and a gap up in price with a lower volume. At close the pressure from buyers and sellers was fairly neutral.

The market depth is still showing buying pressure, as buyers still try to get into AUM. There has also been anothe rgap up this morning, so will see if it gets covered during today's trading range.

It will be interesting to see how much further AUM can move higher, but it would be worthwhile monitoring the daily volume and the transition from buying to selling pressure, as this is when we will see the price level off and start to pull back. The late buyers could potentially move AUM higher, before it starts to fallback.

How much further it will move remains to be seen, but in the current environment it is a shining light.

Good luck and enjoy the ride to those on board and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts.

Try not to leave too much profit on the table when it finally decides to turn.

Cheers.


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## canny (3 July 2006)

*I believe this is going to be a major and will end up replacing the depleting Ernest Henry deposit.*
I quote another post:
_"With Ernest Henry approaching the end of its finite resource, clearly AUM's ground is a perfect fit in so many ways.

But what to do...move the mountain to Ernest Henry...or move Ernest Henry to the mountain?

Rocklands is about 20km or so closer to the smelter...so given the apparent size of the resource, clearly there is a viable argument for a completely stand alone operation, with all on site infrustructure requirements.

Likewise...the thought of an idle Enerest Henry operation (and associated infustructure) simply does not make sense?

Could the area suspport two such operations...would that be economically sensible?

What cost for a 40km conveyor-belt, or perhaps alternative method of geting ore from a to b...surely not more than the cost of a new set of infustructure?

Could AUM's Rocklands project see a scaled down, preliminary concentration circuit, prior to delivery to Ernest Henry?

Or perhaps we may see a strip-down and relocation of Ernest Henry infrustructure to Rocklands...along with some level of upgrade in the process?

Clearly, such decisions would be in the minds of others at this stage...as AUM are far too busy turning their paper-back story into an epic multi-volume novel!

As I have said...in formulating a path to market for this resource, it might be best to look at the strategies of others!"_

*There is also plenty more info to show that the magnitude of their find is putting it towards the $10 mark rather than the $4 -$5 range.
Don't dismiss it as a quick buck - I would certainly recommend keeping a core holding, even if trading some at the same time.
I've been caught a couple of times selling and having to buy back higher - and I WON'T be making that mistake again.
There is a clever manipulation to drop the price, scare some nervous traders, and then he smart money is back in big again.
This could be one of the best discoveries in Australia for many years imo.*


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## lesm (3 July 2006)

Hi Canny,

You could be right. There is some solidity to AUM that we are not seeing with some of the other resource stocks, especially the junior explorers.

Regardless of how people approach it trading, investing, speculating, at the end of the day it's all about making a buck.  

Selling and buying back in can always be an issue, but is part of life when dealing in the market.

It will be interesting to see an updated valuation after the recent assay results or possibly after the results that are expected in July/August.

Good luck in your endeavours and hope this one works out for you as part of your holdings.

Cheers.


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## Prospector (3 July 2006)

Well, I dipped my toes in at 98 cents and thought I had left my run too late 

When will it stop - it seems that when people say it cant hold its price and will fall back soon, seems only to propel it to new highs :


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## cuttlefish (3 July 2006)

I don't know much about mining but an estimate of 59,000,000 tonnes @ 2% Cu  sounds like a lot (if it could all be extracted thats a bit over 1,000,000 tonnes of copper isn't it?).  Is anyone that knows about mining able to comment on how much copper they actually manage to extract from 2% ore?  Do they get it all out? And whats the typical $/tonne cost of extraction?  

Sounds like with the EH deposit so close they might be able to save on some of the infrastructure cost as well.


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## canny (3 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> I don't know much about mining but an estimate of 59,000,000 tonnes @ 2% Cu  sounds like a lot (if it could all be extracted thats a bit over 1,000,000 tonnes of copper isn't it?).  Is anyone that knows about mining able to comment on how much copper they actually manage to extract from 2% ore?  Do they get it all out? And whats the typical $/tonne cost of extraction?
> 
> Sounds like with the EH deposit so close they might be able to save on some of the infrastructure cost as well.




Again borrowing information from another investor: All makes for such a powerful story.
I also saw manipulation at play for myself first hand today - when I placed buys on AUMOA (great play for converting this month with no brokerage to pay!) and there was an aotomatic queue to outbid me INSTANTLY added to the screen. I'd go up a cent - so would the autobid. VERY interesting.
Big players into the manipulation. My best recommendation is to put away as many as you can, and then walk away from the daily screen and price playing - and come back in a few weeks and check it out!!
It's very tempting to sell when the market makes a drop play - but the daily terend is still a strong upswing - so hang in there!!
All my opinion only.
QUOTE from investor:
I suggest everyone re-read...then read again...the most recent announcement...

Try to understand it...it's all there, both in the text and between the lines!

Las Minerale has already been declared as host to an inferred resource of 59,000,000 mt @ 2.04% eq Cu...lol...in just a few weeks of drilling and with just 15% or so of drilling completed.

The resource delineation is still in its infancy!

The above mentioned inferred resource does not include the most recent set of holes...nor those drilled since the last announcement...many of which are revealing the widest and highest grades yet...nor does it include the immenent extension of the resource to at least 1km of strike.

AUM actually suggest there is some 3km of strike at least, but obviously intend to delineate the rest later.

Ore is getting wider with depth. So far, they have only tested to about 170m true vertical depth...Ernest Henry continues beyond 600m, there is no reason Las Minerale doesn't also!

So...therein lies a very loose indication...2,000m(L) x 100m(W) x 500m(D) x 2.8sg = 280,000,000 mt

Are these high side numbers...or are they still underdone?

They have also located at least 2 repeat magnetometer signatures similar to Las Minerale's on either side!

Is it possible they have repeat "Las Minerale" resources either side?...seems CRA thought it was possible...they also suggested "If the layers was (sic) widespread, tonnages could be significant and mining would be a simple proposition”...according to McCrae they were "right on the money"!

What does this tell us?

AUM also suggest the deep drilling (500m+) will further increase the project resource size "significantly".

So how many more clues do people want?

lol...I bought more today...I no longer have a focus on how profitable each trade is, but on how many shares I can manage to accumulate before the magnitude of this thing becomes public knowledge.

In my opinion, the current share price is a direct reflection of the markets awareness...and so far, it appears they know diddly squat!

Cheers!


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## pussycat2005 (3 July 2006)

Nice Wrap up Trade 4 Profit Long time no see! 

Haa we are batting for the same team this time


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## cuttlefish (4 July 2006)

Well in for a penny in for a pound.  Got in yesterday but sold for a small loss when my stop got hit as it moved about.  Bought the open today and holding.


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## chennyleeeee (4 July 2006)

This stocks going nuts, why wont be go down? This seems to be defying gravity. Pigs cant fly. =\

CHEN


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## Riles (4 July 2006)

This from this mornings Australian:

Copper load of this: junior up 1000pc with a target price of 800pc more
Robin Bromby, Resources 
July 04, 2006
SHARES in junior resources play Australian Mining Investments have shot through the 1000 per cent gain barrier in just seven weeks as evidence mounts that it might be sitting on a potential $17billion copper discovery in Queensland.
AMI shares sagged as low as 29c in May but hit $3.27 in intraday trade yesterday, although they finished up 23c at $2.93. The latest surge followed a second drilling report showing good copper grades and indications that the deposit is much bigger than first thought. The other factor that will be playing on investors' minds is that AMI could be a takeover target for Xstrata, which operates the world-class Ernest Henry mine just 40km away and is actively trying to build its copper inventory in Queensland. 

The potential of the Rocklands deposit near Cloncurry, Queensland, has increased with AMI's latest announcement that it is more than halfway to its 100 million tonne resource - and that some holes have hit mineralisation up to 155m wide. 

One broker will be putting out a report later this week describing the project as one of the most important mineral discoveries of the past 20 years. This report will put a target price of $25 a share on AMI, more than eight times its present market valuation. 

Even though institutions are holding back, the bottom line is impressive according to the broker: AMI might be sitting on copper with a value of $US13 billion ($17.5 billion). And that's what they call in-situ value, before it has been mined and refined. 

The stock take-off began in early June when AMI brought out its first announcement that gave an inkling it was on to something big in the copper-rich region around Cloncurry - very big, in fact. 

Most of the action in AMI shares appears to be generated by smaller retail investors. A typical sample of 10 trades yesterday showed only three above $10,000, and the highest being $31,000. 

If Rocklands delivers the goods, it will be a sweet victory for AMI's executive chairman Wayne McCrae, who back in the early 1990s lost the huge Century zinc deposit, now supporting the world's second-largest zinc mining operation and owned by Zinifex. Mr McCrae ran a junior called Diversified Mineral Resources which ended up losing control of Century after a long court battle with the then CRA (now Rio Tinto). CRA then sold Century to Pasminco, now reborn as Zinifex. 

But, in the tradition of what goes around, comes around, AMI's potentially rich copper find was drilled back in 1992 by the same CRA. 

But the major could not reach agreement with the owners of the tenements and walked away, with a small syndicate of local miners working one of the copper zones until 1994. Then Mr McCrae came into AMI and by 2003 the junior was on the scent of the copper potential. 

Recent drilling at one zone at Rocklands has already resulted in an inferred resource of 59 million tonnes at the encouraging grade of 2.04 per cent copper. 

There are more completed holes on which assays are awaited. 

But AMI said yesterday that all these other holes had intersected visible mineralisation over widths from 60m to 155m. 

The company is aiming at proving up a resource of more than 100 million tonnes at greater than 2 per cent copper, along with significant gold and cobalt by-products. The deposit is located within what is known as the Mt Isa Inlier, the geological structure that hosts the Mt Isa, Hilton, Ernest Henry, Century and Cannington metal deposits as well as substantial uranium plays now being drilled. 

Universal Resources is developing the Roseby copper mine to the north while Aditya Birla owns the Mt Gordon copper mine further northwest. 

AMI is planning a name change to CeDeco.


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## cuttlefish (4 July 2006)

Even though volumes up on yesterday, it still seems to be mostly pretty small orders in the queues.


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## lesm (4 July 2006)

Cuttlefish,

You are quite right. Same at pre-open, we are only seeing primarily small retail investors/traders at the moment.

The article in the Australian this morning has been very positive, so it will be interesting to watch the way forward.

The announcements have all been very positive and confirm the strength of the findings and the article has just added more weight to that.

Just a matter of letting profits run for the moment and see where it goes. Really looking like the shining light for 2006.

Prospector,

Good to see that you managed to get in sub $1.00.

Cheers.


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## canny (4 July 2006)

Sorry to keep 'stealing' posts - but he won't mind:
2 great ones here. The most intriguing being the inferrance that Newspaper articles have a subliminal message in them to prospective take over co's - in this case X Strata - giving them an indication of what they will have to pay.

1.So many opinions...

Yet so little knowledge.

"The price must fall because it went up"...lol..and the best one..."comparisons to BHP"...ROTFLMAO!

As I said many many posts ago, when the "doomsdayers" all came out for the first time with "warnings" (about $1.00)...

Watch and learn!

This is a once in a lifetime oportunity...as such, it will play out like no other story you have seen in recent times.

Every angle of this scenario speaks value...from the particular resource specifics to the corporate overtures!

Now...I have to ask; how many of you missed this at $1.00, because it was too expensive...then $2.00 because it was way too expensive...then $3.00 becuase, well, that was a rediculous number...then $4.00, because um ahhh well...then $5.00...then...???

Any one of you, had you bothered to spend the time to do some research...the sort anyone with even the most basic of intelligence could manage...then you too would have been informed enough to recognise the value earlier.

But you know what...it still isn't too late!

Be prepared for a huge gap up tomorrow folks...and as I said back when it broke through $3.25...a whole new set of trading patterns...lol...and interesting players!

Remember, the retailers become more and more insignificant the higher it goes...what does that tell you?

Finally...the ASX are not dills...every single cent of this rise has been the direct result of previous announcements...no need for a "please explain"...although I suspect should AUM get one, they will revel in the opportunity to inform the market of the "undervalued" nature of their stock relative to the potential size of the resource!

2.what seems like smoke and mirrors to some, is a clear as day to others.

Anyone who says anything about the market jumping the gun here, or that they have "gone nuts" really hasn't done their homework!

lol...although, I am sure this could be said of some participants.

At current prices, the junior retailers are becoming rather insignificant...even the larger retailers are having less influence as there appears to be a constant flow of stock being taken out of the market.

So who do you reckon is accumulating and why? I suggest their profile is not one of point value traders!

Tonights close was a real clue to near term activity.

Anyway...news due Thursday/Friday in my opinion...no doubt designed to support today's "spin" in the form of the news article.

Speaking of which, I assume some of you may have missed it's significance...especially several market "codes" therein...one of which was directed to Xstrata; if they want AUM now, they will have to fork out $25 per share!

Such are the way these things are communicated!

This figure also suggest the numbers to be realeased from the most recent drilling results should be significant!

Now that we have this "dialogue" occurring, I suggest people watch very closely now for any "reply" comments apparently eminating from Xstrata...the slightest suggestion they are "interesed", will be the sign that it's on!

3.And a web link
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/6215/urlaum7nd.png


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## Prospector (4 July 2006)

I thought that PDN had been very good to me, but AUM has totally exceeded Paladin.  I bought in at 98cents, two weeks ago and that has now increased 500%, bought in again last Friday, and that has now doubled!


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## Prospector (4 July 2006)

lesm said:
			
		

> Prospector,
> 
> Good to see that you managed to get in sub $1.00.
> 
> Cheers.




And lesm, I owe it all to you!  If I could do a little bowing icon, I would have a row of them just for you :


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## michael_selway (4 July 2006)

Riles said:
			
		

> This from this mornings Australian:
> 
> Copper load of this: junior up 1000pc with a target price of 800pc more
> Robin Bromby, Resources
> ...






> Date: 4/7/2006
> Author: Robin Bromby
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 19
> 
> The share price of Australian Mining Investments (AMI) has risen due to its copper discovery. AMI announced the potential of the Rocklands deposit near Clonclurry in Queensland in early June 2006. A second drilling report has revealed good copper grades and that the deposit is larger than thought. AMI's share price was as low as $A0.20 in May but the potential $A17 billion resource lifted it to a high of $A3.27 on 3 July, closing up by $A0.23 at $A2.93. A broker's report will put a target price of $A25 a share on the company, over eight times its present valuation


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## YOUNG_TRADER (4 July 2006)

I am not in on AUM, so my congrats to all those traders who are laughing all the way to the bank, however I do think that we should take a moment to feel sorry for the following investor,

Someone sold 125,000 AUMOA @ 0.001 yes thats right at 0.001 @ 11.28 am on the 1st of June, today those 150,000 options would be worth $600,000 based on a closing price of $4 for AUMOA


Now imagine the lucky sob who paid $125 for those options + brokerage, they're now worth $600,000,

That has to be the trade of the millenium, from $125 to $600,000 in 1 month!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (4 July 2006)

I still can't get over those option trades, my god does anyone know anybody who bought those options??????????????????????

Even worse does anybody no anyone who sold those options at those prices???????????????????????????????????????????????

What would you do if you sold those options at that price? A fair bit of this I'd imagine


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## Prospector (4 July 2006)

On another forum I read of someone who bought $200 worth of options at .1 cent and yesterday they were worth $800K.  And after today - well, my calculator doesnt have that many zero's.


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## BSD (4 July 2006)

Some comparisons are worthwhile at this point. 


AUM is targetting reserves of 100mt at 2.0% Cu (it is only at 1mt of Cu inferred resource stage now). 

Lets say this is 2,000,000 tonnes of Cu - twice what they have semi-proven so far. 

They have no reserves, no feasibility study, no money and the company is now capped at $270m AUD. 

No copper will be produced by AUM for 5-10 years. 


Just up the road, Universal has a 126mt resource at 0.73% for 930,000 tonnes of Cu and 243,000 of Au. 

Feasibility is expected soon and production is not expected before 2008

The market cap is $66m even after today's rally. 


In Zambia, Equinox Minerals (EQN) has a reserve (not a lesser proven resource) of 321mt at 0.73% for 2,343,000 tonnes of Cu. 

Their inferred resource is 417mt at 0.60% for 2,500,000 tonnes of copper

They have completed a definitive feasibility, have a locked in construction cost, $450USD of bank finance, $150m mining fleet finance contract and expect to produce in 2008. 

EQN also has 20m pounds of Uranium 

The market cap is $560mAUD

Aditya Birla (ABY) is producing now and  has resources of 17.6mt at 2.9% for 500,000 t Cu up the road at Mt Gordon (as well as other projects) and it has a cap of $850mAUD


Undiluted, at the $25 target price of the 'unnamed broker' AUM is capped at $1.30 BILLION

And what about the 40million options with 20 cents to pay expiring in June 08???

When those puppies get exercised, this thing dilutes by almost a half. 

At this share price, fully diluted with the 54 million options I can see on issue we are now looking at a $540m company with $1.40million in the bank in March

At $25 fully diluted this company approaches $2.7 BILLION

I would love to be the owner of the 900,000 employee options with $0.20 to pay!


----------



## surelle (4 July 2006)

ok...i'm going to ask a loaded question here (and don't laugh too loud) do you think it's too late to go in to aum???


----------



## edogg75 (4 July 2006)

a quick look at the market depth shaows that AUM still has a way to go. I bought in at 32c so buying in now is not really meaningful for me, but I think that $10/share seems like a resonable target given the size of the resource and the small amount of shares on offer.


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## BSD (4 July 2006)

edogg75 said:
			
		

> I bought in at 32c so buying in now is not really meaningful for me, but I think that $10/share seems like a resonable target given the size of the resource and the small amount of shares on offer.




30 cents !

Horny stuff - but I think eventually resources do matter 

Just be sure to be out when they announce the inevitable placement at $3.00 or they start exercising the 20c options

There will eventually be more insiders selling at 'any price' than bigger fools buying at 'any price'

Sensational buying though - congrats to all those in sub a $1


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## lesm (4 July 2006)

edogg75 said:
			
		

> a quick look at the market depth shaows that AUM still has a way to go. I bought in at 32c so buying in now is not really meaningful for me, but I think that $10/share seems like a resonable target given the *size of the resource and the small amount of shares on offer*.





With only 53,309,568 issued shares and approx 19.04% held by Kaldig Pty Ltd., there are really not a lot of shares on offer.

Looking at the market depth, it appears that the sellers are drying up again. Which equates to a supply and demand situtation, with demand still outstripping supply. More positive news may only see the price pushed higher, at least in the short term, based on the current activity we are seeing.

The share turnover rate since the start of the year until EOD yesterday has been 161.6%, hence we will see the share base churning through different buyers and sellers. As longer term holders take shares out of the market the tradeable base of shares will become less.

The lowest the share price has been in the last 52 weeks was 0.13 cents, so besides the stories related to options being sold cheaply, there will probably be some stories around of people selling out, only to see the stock take-off and trying to buy back in at higher prices.

Good luck in your trading/investing.


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## pharaoh (4 July 2006)

Congrads all in early, wow............

So is it worth putting in a bid for say 5.35 tonight?

1. Would it likely get filled - if not, what would
2. Is it likely to keep rising - if so, end of week price guesses?

cheers


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## cuttlefish (4 July 2006)

BSD - thanks for posting the comparitive info. 

In comparing AUM to some of the other ones you mentioned - is the grade (2%) a significant factor - I would have thought this would have a significant impact on the $/tonne production costs?    For example - a mine that had 100Mt of .7% ore for a 700,000 tonne Cu   vs a mine that had 35Mt of 2% ore for 700,000 tonne Cu - how would they compare in value terms?   

Also looking at URL - their total resource seems to be spread across a few different targes (about 5 or so?) that are a way apart - how much does this impact production/development costs etc.?

The comparison to ABY is interesting - (even considering that ABY is a current producer and AUM is a long way and many development $$$ away from production).

There's a lot of interesting sounding stuff that I don't understand in the AUM report     - including some of the historical drilling results and the old mining operations at Double Oxide etc.    Is '150m of continuous visible sulphide mineralisation' on one of the drill holes anything to get excited about?

Also are they typically conservative in initial resource estimates like this (or does it depend a lot on the management and the individual geologists etc.?) or is there an industry standard for how to make these estimates?

btw not expecting you to necessarily answer all this but thought I'd throw the questions out there anyway


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## cuttlefish (4 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> ... or is there an industry standard for how to make these estimates?




For anyone as ignorant as myself there's something called JORC

taken from a ppt presentation found here: http://www.jorc.org/main.php

_IT DOES: 

* Sets minimum standards for public reporting (in Australia & New Zealand) of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
* Provides a mandatory system for classification of tonnage/grade estimates according to geological confidence and technical/economic considerations
* Requires Public Reports to be based on work undertaken by a Competent Person; describes the qualifications and type of experience required to be a Competent Person
* Provides extensive guidelines on the criteria to be considered when preparing reports on Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves.

IT DOES NOT

*Regulate the procedures used by Competent Persons to estimate and classify Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
*Regulate companies’ internal classification or reporting systems
*Deal with breaches of the Code by 
Companies (ASX)
Individuals, these are dealt with under code of ethics of AIG and AusIMM or the relevant ROPO._


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## ttnt (5 July 2006)

Such a coinsidence to be one of the member here. 
After read so many opinions and posts. Hereby is my AUM story.

I have been invovled into the AUM since last 11/2005, when the company trying to place the option AUMO, however, there are huge amount of shortage left. One of my broker friend rang me and pushed me into the deal of buying AUMO at 2c each option (exercising price is 0.2 due 08/08). After three month time, the option price has bee shift from 0.02 to higher at 0.22. I sold all of them at the average price of 0.16/0.17/0.18.  That brought me huge profit. 

1 months later (approxiately, i cant really remeber the time), I bought back about $20K worth of AUMO at $0.18, my expectation for this option price was around 0.5-0.6.  Now the price stands at $5 dollar, it is a bit unacceptable, however my target for AUM is around $10-$12 dollars.  

I wont watch the share price until the Xmas of 2006, I am still going to hold for another 3-4 months to see whats going on, as i dont want to miss a Jackpot.


----------



## ttnt (5 July 2006)

continue with last post,

I know lots of PPL who bought the AUM and AUMO below 0.5, they are still holding. I was also be told not to sell any of them at the current price, otherwise, I must be regret after the share price go up again and again.

Hope this info could help some of the player here.


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## BSD (5 July 2006)

Finally, 

Indophil has 846mt @ 0.73% Cu and 0.29% Au ! (Measured, Indicated and Inferred) 


Pre feasibility coming soon

That is 6,200,000 tonnes of copper and 2,400,000 tonnes of gold

That is over three times AUM's 'targets' 

Market Cap - $270 million 


The same as AUM (before the options dilute the current holders by 50%)


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## lesm (5 July 2006)

BSD,

It was good to see you provide a comparative view.

The exuberance of the last couple of weeks, including the recent Australian article speading the news to the masses on AUM, may run a little longer.

We saw, in AUM terms, a substantial increase in share volume yesterday, so will be interesting to see how this continues over the next few days.

An other event that may dilute the shares further, besides options, is if AUM undertakes any capital raising by issuing additional shares.

Wouldn't expect to see people look at this from a more balanced perspective until this early excitement/exuberance settles down.

As an aside.

It looks like AUM may be setup for another gap open.

The options increase by 112% yesterday and the larger parcels are appearing in the course of sales there rather than on the underlying.

The share turnover as of EOD yesterday is now 192.1%, so there is certainly some churning of the shares going on.

The market depth line up at the moment (1st 10 levels) on the buyers side is from $5.80 up to $7.50 and on the selllers side from $5.15 up to $5.80.


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## powerkoala (5 July 2006)

Is this real????
They havent start production yet.. 
but the price............ ???????????????????


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## Captain G (5 July 2006)

A high of $10.00 all in a matter of 30 min, absolute madness !!!! Absolute congrat's to the smart early players!! And sucko to these last top buyers.
Capt


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## Prospector (5 July 2006)

WooHoo, what a last 30 minutes - best I ever had


----------



## GreatPig (5 July 2006)

I haven't been on AUM, but got in for a quick bite of the cherry this morning. 

Couldn't get in until $8.20 (just moving so damn fast), and had my finger on an at-market sell from that moment onwards. Slipped out at $9.40 and $9.38 on the way down.

Only bought 1000 shares - didn't want to get caught out too badly if HSBC went down again (as it was for the first few minutes after opening) - but that netted me a profit of about $1140 for a few minutes work. 

Can't complain about that.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## sangshim (5 July 2006)

down to 7.70


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## lesm (5 July 2006)

Good to see that people are doing ok.

After the pick last month I'm the hero of the office at the moment, especially when it hit $10. We have been following it's behaviour and journey along the way.

Looks like the herd has caught up with this one, so it will be interesting to see just how crazy the price can get.

Better than the ASX game and one (BIG 1) up for the TAs at the moment, sorry couldn't resist.

Cheers.


----------



## michael_selway (5 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> I haven't been on AUM, but got in for a quick bite of the cherry this morning.
> 
> Couldn't get in until $8.20 (just moving so damn fast), and had my finger on an at-market sell from that moment onwards. Slipped out at $9.40 and $9.38 on the way down.
> 
> ...




hehe nice

do u think it will go higher than it is now tomrrow?

thx

MS


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## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

Is it me or ETrade....but there seems to be a halt in trading....  

Ahhh...just saw the trading halt!

Good news please...good news.... :


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## cuttlefish (5 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> had my finger on an at-market sell from that moment onwards. Slipped out at $9.40 and $9.38 on the way down.




I watched it reverse from $10.00 and hit sell on 3/4 of my holding (7500) at 9.80 (same story - had the at-market order ready to go) - by the time it processed the price I got was $9.05 - was watching it saying 'processing order' as the price dropped.   

Still happy - got in at only $3.50 on yesterdays open. Sold the other 1/4 at $7.50 as it continued down.  

Notice its in pre-open at the moment another news item coming out - hope its not too good now that I've liquidated.


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## DOC (5 July 2006)

speeding ticket issued by ASX. about time.
Trading Halt til Friday.
i bought in at 8.40, small tranch.

not feeling the best at the moment.  
good news from anyone pleease. :


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## srivest (5 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Is it me or ETrade....but there seems to be a halt in trading....
> 
> Ahhh...just saw the trading halt!
> 
> Good news please...good news.... :




Trading halt indeed.

I've been refusing myself to trade this stock since the beginning, I didn't understand why it was going up like a rocket... I've read a few advices in books saying don't trade when you are not sure, when you don't understand. But today I decided to dip in since the demand was there, as usual, got in at 8.00 out at 9.80 just before the big drop.. in fact my stop loss has been hit in the drop that's more the real story 

Hope the news are good. Have you guys ever seen a stock going so high so fast ?


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## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

Could be a speeding ticket, but that would just give AUM an excuse to detail just what they have!

OR..could be more results showing how much 'more' they have.

Who knows with this one, but I suspect there will be a great deal of buyers lining up now 'just in case'.


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## lesm (5 July 2006)

DOC said:
			
		

> speeding ticket issued by ASX. about time.
> Trading Halt til Friday.
> i bought in at 8.40, small tranch.
> 
> ...




The company actually requested the trading halt according to the announcement. Hence, this is not a speeding ticket.

Additional announcements were expected to come out this month and next month.

We will now need to wait and see.


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## aobed (5 July 2006)

srivest said:
			
		

> Trading halt indeed.
> 
> I've been refusing myself to trade this stock since the beginning, I didn't understand why it was going up like a rocket... I've read a few advices in books saying don't trade when you are not sure, when you don't understand. But today I decided to dip in since the demand was there, as usual, got in at 8.00 out at 9.80 just before the big drop.. in fact my stop loss has been hit in the drop that's more the real story
> 
> Hope the news are good. Have you guys ever seen a stock going so high so fast ?




Well, I certainly hope it is good news.. I wonder what the announcement will bring.... fingers crossed for good news!


----------



## noirua (5 July 2006)

srivest said:
			
		

> Trading halt indeed.
> 
> I've been refusing myself to trade this stock since the beginning, I didn't understand why it was going up like a rocket... I've read a few advices in books saying don't trade when you are not sure, when you don't understand. But today I decided to dip in since the demand was there, as usual, got in at 8.00 out at 9.80 just before the big drop.. in fact my stop loss has been hit in the drop that's more the real story
> 
> Hope the news are good. Have you guys ever seen a stock going so high so fast ?





Poseidon NL rose from 80 cents to $280 from Sept 1969 to Feb 1970.


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## lesm (5 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Poseidon NL rose from 80 cents to $280 from Sept 1969 to Feb 1970.




Beat me to it noirua, this is the only major one that I recall that has had,such a meteoric rise in a short timeframe. Others have been over longer timeframes, but none has ever matched Poseidon.


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## aobed (5 July 2006)

anyone have ideas as to what the announcement might be about?  Possible take-over?


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## michael_selway (5 July 2006)

DOC said:
			
		

> speeding ticket issued by ASX. about time.
> Trading Halt til Friday.
> i bought in at 8.40, small tranch.
> 
> ...




Why would there be a speeding ticket? all major news/rumours out already,

thx

MS


----------



## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

aobed said:
			
		

> anyone have ideas as to what the announcement might be about?  Possible take-over?




Expect this will be more drill results...

Or something along the lines of....

"Copper? Did we say Copper?... Sorry, meant Lead"


----------



## cuttlefish (5 July 2006)

aobed said:
			
		

> anyone have ideas as to what the announcement might be about?  Possible take-over?




It'll probably be more results from their drilling program aobed. If you go on the asx site and look up companies you can see a history of announcements for them - if you read through you'll see their past announcements of drilling results and they are currently doing additional drilling to try to firm up resource size of la minerale deposit plus a couple of other adjacent deposits.

If you look at the info BSD has posted in this thread you can get a comparitive idea of how similar companies are valued.

If looking at AUM market cap and comparing to other companies - remember to factor in options because they have about 50 million on issue - personally I think treating them as having approx 100 mill shares currently on issue is the best way to look at them from a market cap point of view - i.e. dilute with the options now.  Also factor in that developing any resource to production stage will cost a lot of $$$ which is often raised by issuing additional capital, and will take years.

From a takeover perspective - X-strata's Ernest Henry deposit is only about 40km's from this one and is getting towards the end of its life - so this resource would possibly be of interest to X-strata but obviously only if the price was right for them.  Its even possible x-strata's EH infrastructure could somehow be used for developing AUM's resource.


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## DOC (5 July 2006)

could this be a placement of a large number of shares?


----------



## MiningGuru (5 July 2006)

This has appeared on The Age website:

AMI in trading halt amid takeover talk
The Age
July 5, 2006 - 12:10PM

Minerals explorer Australian Mining Investments Ltd (AMI) has gone into a trading halt amid speculation about a $17 billion copper discovery and possible bid from Swiss-based mining giant Xstrata.

AMI requested a trading halt pending an announcement around an hour after the start of trading on Wednesday morning, after a recent share spike.

AMI last traded at $7.11, up $1.86 on Tuesday's close, after hitting a high of $10.00 this morning.

The stock has risen strongly since June 29 when it announced an update on its Rocklands Group Copper Project in north-west Queensland.

There is speculation in the market that the project could be worth as much as $17 billion.

This in turn has prompted further rumours that Xstrata will launch a takeover bid in an effort to build up its Queensland copper assets.


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## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

Rumours Rumours...Even on Nine News now, same story as The AGE - take over talks.

Assuming this is the actual announcement (unlikley so early I think), what affect would this have on the price?

My worry is the hype that's undoubtedly going to build up prior to the announcement may impact any 'good' news when trading resumes.

Saying that, the hype is also likely to fuel a buying queue.


----------



## profithunter (5 July 2006)

In addition to the supposed $17billion deposit, there is a rumour going around that a broker about to release a research report on the stock with a valutaion of $25.


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## canny (5 July 2006)

I wish they'd got the halt half an hour earlier to maintain the integrity of the rise - but ASX probably held it up in processing and caused the mini panic.

Luckily the price had stabilised again around the $7.20 mark - still 35% up on yesterday - and of course a lot more traders in for the quick ride, as we've heard on here today.
The latest figures from testing were due this week ANYWAY  - but it was a wise decision to halt it today so that at least when it re-opens we are working on firm figures and a better overall picture.
I took some well deserved profits(!) when it went ballistic - sold some OA's as they were holding their price better than the heads.
I'm expecting the news to be very positive. Even if a placement is included, it'll be an overall win win situation.
They should get $7mill this month, already starting to flow in actually, from the conversion of the AUMOA's. That's a good start for further exploration costs.
Now, while we take a break - take a look at SRK - back up after suspension - and NDO/YGL combo. 
Lesm - this was the only way I stood a chance of catching you in the 3 monthly comp!!!! LOL!!!!! I gave everyone fair chance and didn't pick it until after market on 30th!!
Let's enjoy the next leg up too!!


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## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

I notice there is a sell trade queued up at 4.75

Sorry to ask such a newbie question, but when the trading halt is lifted, won't this get snapped up and potentially cause all stop losses around this price to trigger?

I should probably have asked this in the 'Begginners lounge' but it's AUM and I'm trying to factor in some safety   

Advice appreciated.


----------



## doctorj (5 July 2006)

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but once they release price sensitive news, any buy/sell orders sitting in the queue will get cleared.


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## cuttlefish (5 July 2006)

Isn't it just like the opening price auction that happens at the start of each trading day?   (so just like a normal pre-open before trading resumes).


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## dubiousinfo (5 July 2006)

Bullmarket probably explained it best as follows:




Hi Bobby, finnsk

I'll try to explain what happens before the market opens at 10am but the same process is followed during the closing auction (4:00-4:15pm) and before ANY pre-open auction.....ie...usually about 10 mins before a stock resumes after a trading halt for any reason.

The stock market goes into pre-open from 7am during which time anybody can put in whatever bids/offers they like (auction). During pre-open SEATS (Stock Exchange Automated Trading System) then goes thru a 4 stage algorithm to compute the IAP (Indicative Auction Price) based on the mkt depth whenever it changes. The IAP represents what the opening price would be at that particular time based on the current market depth if the stock opened for trading there and then. 

At 10am stocks begin trading in alphabetical order. The market is fully open by about 10:08am. When the stock opens for trading, all orders with bids above the IAP and all orders with offers below the IAP are executed at the IAP. The IAP when the stock actually opens becomes the quoted opening price. During pre-open people put in bids above the IAP and offers below the IAP to ensure their orders are executed on opening.

At 4:00pm normal trading stops but again anybody can continue to put in whatever bids/offers they like until 4:15pm, just like in the morning preopen, but the orders aren't executed until 4:15pm. During the 15 mins closing auction SEATS again computes the IAP as above each time the market depth changes. At 4:15pm, for each stock all orders with bids above the IAP and all orders with offers below the IAP are executed at the IAP. In this case the IAP will be the quoted closing price.

I hope this makes sense and helps


----------



## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

So a pre-open auction would be 10 mins prior to lifting a trading halt, but buy orders have been building since the trading halt.

Surely they won't be wiped from the queue? If so, then why are ppl placing them?


----------



## powerkoala (5 July 2006)

They just there to make ppl confuse...
if you have E-trade or web iress
you can see the real price settlement when it opens...
therefore.. even buyer build up at $10, but at the moment the settlement price is just $7.50
It just like mind games, ppl will think lot of buyers intend to buy with high prices, but the amount is not enough to make the price goes up.
The real settlement will be when the announcement up.
Whether is a good news or not, this sp already WIN lot.
Hope it helps


----------



## sangshim (5 July 2006)

Sell orders are building up.... makes me feel nervous since I've dipped my toe in at around $5.


----------



## lesm (5 July 2006)

canny said:
			
		

> Lesm - this was the only way I stood a chance of catching you in the 3 monthly comp!!!! LOL!!!!! I gave everyone fair chance and didn't pick it until after market on 30th!!




Not a problem Canny, c'est la vie.

I learnt after the first comp I entered not to pick them until the evening the comp closes. Won't ever pick one a week out again.

Anyway, you need all the help you can get to catch up, just had to show you the way.  :    : 

Hope you have worked out the numbers, will make it more competitive.

Good to see you managed to make some money along the way. Friday should be interesting and we will see what happens to the share price after that, an interesting month ahead.

Have a good idea which way it will go based on the balance of probabilities. There is already enough information around to work that out, this should be a confirmation. Any unsuspected surprises would make it interesting.

Cheers.


----------



## canny (5 July 2006)

Cheers lesm -  
And AlfGuy, the only time they wipe the buys and sells are when a stock is suspended. This only happens when they can't provide the announcement in the 3 days allowed for a trading halt.
Suspension is the next step (a la SRK) but doesn't mean they've been 'naughty'!!!!!
SO - all these buys and sells will stand providing the ann is out by the due limit - Friday am.
The rest was well explained. IAP was $7.50 last time I looked, but I suspect it's in the hands of the autobots right now - computer placed bids and sells to keep it evenly matched.  
However, when the news is released, I'm expecting a large gap up rather than a fall.
It will have taught caution or a hard lesson to a few newer traders no doubt!  
Go to the research sites - learn how institutional size buyers can manipulate the market - make a panic set up and everyone chokes and gets out in a mad tumbling hurry - stop losses being triggered, as people clamber over each other in the rush to get out (the $10 trigger) - then they will walk in calmly and do their buying at hte price target they have set to 'let it fall to'.

The secret is: Hold your nerve - don't choke, and if necessary, go fishing!!!
If you've got the nerve you can trade it along the way - but on a stock like this you often lose out - sell at a 'good' price, then have to pay more to get back in.  
Sheesh - bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## ALFguy (5 July 2006)

Great reading the stuff you guys (Lesm & Canny) write....   

Just wondered how you get the IAP (what is IAP?) at 7.50?
I'm using ETrade and only familiar with viewing queued orders.

Bought in at 8.00 and did hold my nerve as it rocketed to 10.00 and then nose dived to settle around 7.1  Heart in mouth but figured it would close higher - then the halt was announced.

Not going to share your wisdom on which way it will go Lesm?   

I too have an idea but it's 50% blind faith, which can't be good.


----------



## Prospector (5 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Not going to share your wisdom on which way it will go Lesm?
> 
> I too have an idea but it's 50% blind faith, which can't be good.





And probabilities was my weakest subject


----------



## canny (5 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Great reading the stuff you guys (Lesm & Canny) write....
> 
> Just wondered how you get the IAP (what is IAP?) at 7.50?
> I'm using ETrade and only familiar with viewing queued orders.
> ...



ALFGuy - Go back a few posts. 'Dubiousinfo' gave a great run down of the auction system and explained IAP - Indicative Auction Price. You will need a programme with live data to get the IAP updating constantly.
For example - if you're with Commsec, you would need their Pro-Trader - not standard entry.
Don't know if E Trade has a level where IAP is shown?
Hope that helps.


----------



## sangshim (5 July 2006)

another great story on the Australian..

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19686554-643,00.html


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## lesm (5 July 2006)

Canny,

A colleague of mine uses Westpac and they have IAP, as part of their standard service


ALFguy,

I only have a view the same as others may have the same or a differing view. But, I think that the answer is fairly obvious with respect to the outcome to expect when AUM release their announcement. A the end of the day it comes down to how the participants in the market react to the announcement.

Your reference to a coin toss is fairly apt, but we will know the outcome when AUM recommences trading and that is when it counts.

I would be watching the opening and let the market settle down after the first 30 minutes, as it will probably hectic during this period. Would be surprised if it was a tame opening for AUM, but it could happen. The market depth, including the 'bid' and 'offer' prices, at pre-open should give an indication of what buyers and sellers are expecting to happen.

As Canny mentioned earlier it is important to keep your nerve and not be too emotional, as this can cause more harm than good. Hesitation or indecision through emotion can be a very expensive exercise, especially in a fast moving market.

The action related to AUM is probably a good learning experience for a new player. You will have noticed that a number of the more experienced traders here have been in and out of AUM fairly quickly and others have bought and are holding fro a longer period. You are seeing a number of aspects with respect to fast moving prices in both directions, as well as 'gap' opens and trading halts.

The main thing here, is to learn as much as you can and identify areas for further research or the raising of questions in the forum.

Cheers.


----------



## michael_selway (5 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> another great story on the Australian..
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19686554-643,00.html




wow thx



> Copper whopper up another 79pc
> Robin Bromby
> July 05, 2006
> 
> ...




Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble"



> The Poseidon bubble was a stock market bubble in which the price of Australian mining shares soared in late 1969, then crashed in early 1970. It was triggered by the Poseidon NL company's discovery of a promising site for nickel mining in September 1969.
> 
> In the late 1960s, nickel was in high demand due to the Vietnam War, but there was a shortage of supply due to industrial action against the major Canadian supplier Inco. These factors pushed the price of nickel to record levels, peaking at around £7,000 on the London market early in November 1969. In September 1969, the mining company Poseidon NL made a major nickel discovery at Windarra in the Shire of Laverton, Western Australia. In early September their shares had been trading at $0.80, but as information about the discovery was released, the price rose until it was trading at $12.30 on October 1. After this, very little further information came to light, but the price continued to climb due to speculation; at one point, a UK broker suggested a value of up to $382 a share.
> 
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (6 July 2006)

Some more interstign articles

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/market-watches-poseidon-the-sequel/2006/07/05/1151779013378.html

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/veterans-see-lots-of-hype-in-ami/2006/07/05/1151779013375.html



> Market watches Poseidon, the sequel
> Email Print Normal font Large font July 6, 2006
> 
> Advertisement
> ...


----------



## noirua (6 July 2006)

It is reported by the London Evening Standard that the London-listed miner Xstrata may bid for Australian Mining Investments, and the 59 million tonnes of ore at Rocklands Lode could be worth A$22 billion.


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

Another news from the Australian..

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19697306-643,00.html


----------



## ALFguy (6 July 2006)

All interesting and 'varied' articles...

Anyone know what the IAP is at today?


----------



## ALFguy (6 July 2006)

This mornings announcement:

*Drilling is continuing to increase the resource at the Rocklands Copper Gold Cobalt Group Project. Drilling is continuing 7 days per week 12 hours per day.
Further RC drill hole results have now been received confirming the Las Minerale continues at depth, length and consistent width.
An updated report will be released Friday.
Yours faithfully,
Wayne McCrae,
Chairman.
*


----------



## lesm (6 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> All interesting and 'varied' articles...
> 
> Anyone know what the IAP is at today?




Wouldn't worry about the IAP too much at the moment.

Wait until the pre-open.

Patience is a virtue that new traders need to learn.

Cheers.


----------



## canny (6 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> All interesting and 'varied' articles...
> 
> Anyone know what the IAP is at today?



ALFguy - the IAP is being artificially held at $7.50 by an automated 'Money Maker' system. This means that until nearer the open, just ignore all bids and offers. The only way we'll know which way it's going, is when we read the ann.
Certainly all sounding good so far and I still expect positive news and another overall gain in price - BUT there are a lot of people who've been 'little' share holders and had no idea they were sitting on a fortune. As they realise, there will be some sells going in from them.
A mates golfing buddy bought 300,000 of them a year or so back for a tiny outlay - and just forgot about them - had NO IDEA until this week that he was worth a fortune!! He sold 100,000 of them the morning of the halt - and his broker advised him to keep the rest for now.
Wow - wou;dn't have minded being in HIS shoes!!!!
These are obviously the people that aren't regular traders, just mums and dads that buy a couple of things for some reason at some time.


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

-ve news from SMH this time..

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/veterans-see-lots-of-hype-in-ami/2006/07/05/1151779013375.html


----------



## cuttlefish (6 July 2006)

_The Herald made several attempts to reach AMI's management team for a response yesterday, but AMI chairman Wayne McCrae was overseas and unavailable for comment. Phone calls to executive director Tim Koitka and Chris Dredge, the geologist who compiled the June 29 release, were not returned._

haha - yeah sure the Geologist will just have a private little chat about the findings with you, that'd be perfectly legal ...


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> _The Herald made several attempts to reach AMI's management team for a response yesterday, but AMI chairman Wayne McCrae was overseas and unavailable for comment. Phone calls to executive director Tim Koitka and Chris Dredge, the geologist who compiled the June 29 release, were not returned._
> 
> haha - yeah sure the Geologist will just have a private little chat about the findings with you, that'd be perfectly legal ...




So.. you think it's just media crap?


----------



## cuttlefish (6 July 2006)

wasn't a comment on the quality or accuracy of the article - just highlighting a section of it that I thought was funny - that a journalist would think that the companies geologist would even speak to them about such sensitive information at this particular point in time.


----------



## Prospector (6 July 2006)

Journalists think they have a right to everything!  They have become THE story instead of REPORTING the story!


----------



## stockmaster (6 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> So.. you think it's just media crap?





Who the hell believe the media, lolz the journalist  only noe how to write those bs entertainment news, when they gets to financial news, as if they noe everthing. If they do, y don;t they js play shares, they get more profit out of it than their job!


----------



## BSD (6 July 2006)

I wish I could short this stock


No insto interest, dodgy drilling, nothing proven, options aplenty, lies galore. about 10-20 overvalued even if it is true. 

Every mug in the street getting excited

This is laughable and The Australian has a lot to answer for in my view

Who is the broker with the $25 target again?


Would love to do a contract for difference on the stock price for June 07 settlement. 

What broker would place their stock?

Bucketshop Inc?


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> I wish I could short this stock
> 
> 
> No insto interest, dodgy drilling, nothing proven, options aplenty, lies galore. about 10-20 overvalued even if it is true.
> ...



Would you like to sell yours for $5 before market opens? 

No.. I don't think you would.. I believe Somewhere in your mind a devil's whispering "it might be the chance of the lifetime~ it will go up and break $15 tomorrow~".

No?

Well.. the devil's whispering in my ears anyway..


----------



## BSD (6 July 2006)

Chance of a lifetime?

Why not put $10,000 on a $1.40 front runner at Randwick on Saturday?

Laughable stuff. 

At $15 the company is worth $1.50 billion

Six holes and a million in the bank

Laughable


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

sounds like you are a bit frustrated...

Oh well...

To be honest.... it's same here.. since i've dipped my toes in at around $8..

I've been swearing more than thousand times in last 2 days.. "I should have sold it at $9 and leave with a few grand profit"...

But What can I do now... just fingers crossed and wish it jumps up at least one more time..


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

New Ann just released.. "Corrected Version of Suspension from official quotation"

Trading halt was due to the delay of the release of results.


----------



## cuttlefish (6 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> I wish I could short this stock
> 
> 
> No insto interest, *dodgy drilling*, nothing proven, options aplenty, * lies galore*. about 10-20 overvalued even if it is true.




thats a strong claim - do you believe they are misrepresenting their drilling results?


----------



## BSD (6 July 2006)

Not at all

But the lack of coordinates on the holes is a problem

Are the six holes five metres or fifty metres spaced?

Is the 59mt JORC compliant?

Nobody knows yet. 

When there is a knowledgeable feeling the copper is in shoots around these areas, the spacing is very important

Regardless - even if they have the 100mt at 2.0% Cu they are spruiking the stock is ten times over the odds.

$1.0m in the bank doesnt buy much drilling - they would need at least $30m to do feasibility and another $500m to start production

Even at the current over the odds price that is a lot of dilution

Nobody lends $500m on an 'inferred resource' from six holes!

*
How many here are keen to pony up at $3.00 a share in a placement?*


----------



## pharaoh (6 July 2006)

sangshim, i did the same
put order at open at 6.00, wasn't filled of course.

bought at 8.97, and put sell order at 12
buummer

sold at 7.50 for a ****e days trading. 
kind of wish i held off selling now.

could maybe run to 12 or 15 tomorrow, depending on the ann.


----------



## lesm (6 July 2006)

Whether people agree with BSDs view or not, care should be taken and he is entitled to an opinion.

This company's stock has moved a fair amount pricewise and there has probably been a fair amount of speculative and emotional buying of AUM, with some people possibly seeing an opportunity to get rich quick.

Since the Australian articlethe daily volume turnover increased by around 200%+ on that day, remember it went into the trading halt the day after. Where AUM goes from here remains to be seen, but a positive announcement will probably see more sepeculative buying taking place and crazy price movements.

Take care and use effective risk management to handle the situation if/when AUM corrects and the pricing becomes more rational. Wouldn't like to see anyone get stranded on a peak after a price spike.


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> sangshim, i did the same
> put order at open at 6.00, wasn't filled of course.
> 
> bought at 8.97, and put sell order at 12
> ...




I guess there's alot of ppl like me. based on the fact that more than 2 mil shares been traded at over $8 yesterday...


----------



## sangshim (6 July 2006)

BTW, would it be resumed tommorrow?
NEW Ann doesn;t mention about the date...


----------



## BSD (6 July 2006)

It is SUSPENDED

No trade tomorrow

Punters will be sweaty by Monday


Lining up next to the Westpoint punters in 12 months

"Where was ASIC - we was robbed"


----------



## cuttlefish (6 July 2006)

> BTW, would it be resumed tommorrow?




depends on when they get together the information they want to release to the market - but given they've requested a suspension it doesn't sound like it'll be tomorrow.


----------



## RickG (6 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> Not at all
> 
> But the lack of coordinates on the holes is a problem
> 
> ...




Totally agree with you.  Personally I havent liked the way AUM has handled the release of these findings at all.  Its all too vague, and reminds me of the good old days in the 80's, when small exploration company's would vastly over-estimate drilling results.  And whats with the release of the company update today?  It's in a trading halt and then they release yet another vague update.

_Drilling is continuing to increase the resource at the Rocklands Copper Gold Cobalt Group Project. Drilling is continuing 7 days per week 12 hours per day.
Further RC drill hole results have now been received confirming the Las Minerale continues at depth, length and consistent width._

Price pumping comes to mind (ok it is a trading halt, but still   ).  Dont get me wrong, I hope for the sake of those holding that this is a great find, I just think AMI hasnt handled this at all well.  

As far as the take-over, well I would say the price is now too high for anyone to be interested without full confirmation of the resource (alot more than six holes). 


But maybe I am just suspicious because I missed the boat  : 

Good luck to those that hold


----------



## troll (6 July 2006)

found that FP markets actually offers AUM CFDs, and guess what you can even short them......

the margin is a bit high though 80% but its better than nothing.


----------



## cuttlefish (6 July 2006)

If they have made a significant find (and it sounds like they have) there's probably not going to be any easy way to handle it.  They need to release results to market as they come to hand which they've done. 

When things appeared to be getting out of hand (which is not something they can control) they've put it into suspension until they can release enough information to hopefully mean a more orderly market. Seems reasonably responsible to me.

Its the responsibility of investors to make sure they invest/trade based on their own assessments of value and risk. Yet a lot of people just buy without even doing some simple maths or reading the actual reports themselves.

BSD put useful comparitive figures into this thread of similar companies. The AUM report itself has speculated on an initial resource estimate - it can only be assumed this is done by a qualified, competent geologist and based on at least some commonsense.  So its not like there isn't information about that could be used as the basis for doing a valuation.

Articles like the one in The Australian speculating on a $25 share price so early in the piece probably weren't helpful to the situation thats for sure.  

But who knows - I certainly don't.



Oh yeah and troll - you've selected your username well - managed to slip in another plug for FP Markets I see - I'm surprised they still let you log in.


----------



## new girl (6 July 2006)

hi all, this is my first stock talk so be kind. I have put a decent amount of money in this share, and i think based on the first trading halt and announcement, the second one should be positive as well. does anyone think otherwise?


----------



## stiger (7 July 2006)

There are two articles in the australian today take your pick as to which one you believe. I hold EXS


----------



## new girl (7 July 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> There are two articles in the australian today take your pick as to which one you believe. I hold EXS



is it silly to buy some more this morning?


----------



## edogg75 (7 July 2006)

its suspended at the mo so u cant even if u want 2


----------



## lesm (7 July 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> is it silly to buy some more this morning?




newgirl,

I think you will find that trading on AUM will not recommence until at least Monday next week.

It is believed that the announcement will be positive, but whether you should buy as an individual is really a decision that you need to make.

Some of the discussion surrounding AUM is related to the veracity of the reporting that has been done and that it has been in accordance with the relevant standards an dthat enough information has been provided to obtain a clear understandiing of the true/real value of the resource.

My understanding is that part of the reason for the delay in the release of the announcement, is that the initial announcement was provided, but that AUM has been requested to provide more detail.

One of the questions raised is with regard to the ASX ensuring that due diligence has been undertaken. Compared to a range of resource sector announcments some of the information provided to date has been very scant.

The media getting into this very early has not helped. Balanced, objective reporting is not one of the strong points of our media. They lost that skill a long time ago and it doesn't help sell newspapers any more. Truth in reporting...baaaaaah!!!


----------



## lesm (7 July 2006)

Picked this one up over on reef and people here may find it of interest. Especially with respect to the part about the guy who tried shorting AUM last Monday with a mix of 900,000 shares and options.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19697306-643,00.html

How could anyone get it so wrong (ouch!) with the upward momentum push on AUM in the last month or so.

Now, is this greed, speculation, gambling or a contrarian gone wrong?


----------



## DOC (7 July 2006)

Some interesting posts from everyone.thanks

I have been asking a few people for some advice on this, and this what i was told by one advisor today:

I have just been informed that the suspension may last upto 2 weeks, so we may have to sweat it for a while
Also he has given me both sides of the coin as far as future pricing. If the copper find is fully developed (which could cost upto 500 million) then the share price is worth $46... Underdeveloped the price is valued at 10% of the fully developed price. ie $4.60.
This advisor believes the findings are genuine and not overstated, and that the company directors have just been asked to provide more detailed and precise info before reentering the market.

cheers


----------



## hypnotic (7 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> Not at all
> 
> But the lack of coordinates on the holes is a problem
> 
> ...




It sounds like it could be BSD who shorted the 900,000 shares = P.. hehe j/k 

Hypnotic


----------



## lesm (7 July 2006)

DOC said:
			
		

> Some interesting posts from everyone.thanks
> 
> I have been asking a few people for some advice on this, and this what i was told by one advisor today:
> 
> ...




Doc,

Thanks for the input.

At this point in time the detailed input from AUM will help provide the clarification required to come up with a more realistic valuation.

The reality is that the copper is still in the ground and full realisable value will not start to be achieved until they go into production. This is what may confuse some people, the distinction between today's market value and that going into the future. There is no information anywhere that contradicts the information related to this being a major find, how big no one really knows yet.

Everyone has seen the reaction so far, hence it is important to ensure that detailed and  informed information, in accordance with the relevant standards, is made available to the market. Otherwise, the ASX and ASIC may also have some explaining to do.


----------



## cuttlefish (7 July 2006)

It'd be interesting to know how many people that bought into AUM on Wednesday:

(a) Read the actual drilling report in full
(b) Did some valuation calcuations of their own based on the information in the report.
(c) Set their exit criteria prior to purchase

The percentage would be pretty low.


----------



## cuttlefish (7 July 2006)

So for the majority, the new information, no matter how detailed, will be of little use, because they won't use it. Instead, when the suspension is lifted, most people that enter or exit will do it based on one of two things - fear or greed.


----------



## ALFguy (7 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> So for the majority, the new information, no matter how detailed, will be of little use, because they won't use it. Instead, when the suspension is lifted, most people that enter or exit will do it based on one of two things - fear or greed.




My view exactly. Once the announcement is made and the suspension is lifted, ppl aren't going to sit around reading through while the stock is on the move (up or down).

I suspect it's going to be mayhem  : 

2 weeks though? Surely not.


----------



## Prospector (7 July 2006)

OK, so we all have to take a breather and therefore....... speculate!

If the suspension is because the report that has been released requires more detail, my take on this is as follows:

a)  If the reports confirm all that has been previously (ie extremely positive) then this is a huge discovery and needs to be totally accurate and well founded (ie due diligence on behalf of the minerals experts and also the ASX to confirm that)  

OR


b)  If the reports have not confirmed the previous announcements (ie a fizzer) then really, other than for those who have blown their dough and the journalists who have ramped it somewhat then there is no big deal, is there.  Just another fizzer that didnt live up to its promise and there have been many of them in the past!




If a) then we have the current situation.  If b) then the report would have been released today as no further detail is required.


----------



## sangshim (7 July 2006)

Come on!!!

The ann gotta be released today! I don't wanna spend whole weekend biting my finger nails..


----------



## Prospector (7 July 2006)

Come on!!!

The ann gotta be released today! I don't wanna spend whole weekend biting my finger nails..



he he .....lucky for me I have very long ones :


----------



## lesm (7 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> So for the majority, the new information, no matter how detailed, will be of little use, because they won't use it. Instead, when the suspension is lifted, most people that enter or exit will do it based on one of two things - fear or greed.




Totally agree with you there and the potential feeding frenzy will begin.

There will also be more stories that will come out a long the way that will become the folklore related to AUM.

You can't protect people from themselves or their emotions.

All that waiting will test a few resolves, as well as the reduction in the length of fingernails.


----------



## surelle (7 July 2006)

what time were they supposed to announce and cease suspension?


----------



## sangshim (7 July 2006)

nobody knows...
Some ppl talk about monday.. but..


----------



## ALFguy (7 July 2006)

Wish they'd just announce if it's likely today or not so I can go make food  :


----------



## new girl (7 July 2006)

I've just seen a repeat of yesterday's announcement (appendix 3b). Does anyone know why they keep repeating themselves? is it to comfort us poor investors or is there some wisdom in it?


----------



## The Mint Man (7 July 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> I've just seen a repeat of yesterday's announcement (appendix 3b). Does anyone know why they keep repeating themselves? is it to comfort us poor investors or is there some wisdom in it?




I believe it is different  
However would like someone to comment on the last bit of your question, what does it mean exactly?


----------



## x2rider (7 July 2006)

Hi  Folks .
 Well I've just got home from work, got a couple of beers , Some chips and  a bit of dip and I'm waiting for the show to begin   
 I hope I don't run out of beer waiting  :alcohol:  
 Cheers Martin


----------



## new girl (7 July 2006)

I own shares with other companies and I don't see them having to inform all investors about the issue of options to some investors while halting the trading. 

Are they just buying time until the technical reports are published while they organise the purchase of their options at the same time, and if they all sell once trading is back on, does it mean this could bring the price down?


----------



## cuttlefish (7 July 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> I've just seen a repeat of yesterday's announcement (appendix 3b).




Its not a repeat - its another 3b -  they're being released to announce option exercises. AUM has company issued options in the market and some people are exercising them.  Would probably have been a bit of arb'ing b/w the options and stock going on as well during this weeks trading.


----------



## dubiousinfo (7 July 2006)

It's been reported that the executive chairman Wayne McCrae is overseas and due back on the weekend. They may have decided to hold off the announcement until he was back in the country to deal with the issues.


----------



## jovialTrader (7 July 2006)

I received an email from commsec that my order has been purged. I've never had this before. Anyone knows why?

Hope it's not something terrible, horrible n unbearable...  

JT


----------



## crayfish (7 July 2006)

Is this the same company?

http://www.australianmininginvestments.com/

It produces copper sulphate, not copper metal. 

JORC Compliance may be the issue...just a theory based on:

Do they actually even have an up-to-date website with their drill results, drill plans and sections??? 
What is the style of the mineralisation? 
What is the copper species? If it's chalcopyrite then their concentrate grades will be relatively low.
Have they done any QAQC on their drilling methods, database, SG measurements, assays? 
Do they understand the structural controls on the mineralisation?
Do they really employ a geologist? 
Given the scant information one would have to wonder.

Could someone please post the original 59Mt @ 2% release for me as I can't seem to find one. Perhaps they missed a decimal point and it's really 5.9Mt?? I have a hunch that this could signal a blow for Australian exploration as a whole.

I have a little chuckle when people start spouting stuff like it's "the most important copper discovery in two decades".

Hmmmm...I will enjoy sitting back and watching this one. What's that smell? Something's burning?

Of course, I do hope I'm wrong...


----------



## crayfish (7 July 2006)

http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,19697607%5E913,00.html

director's unavailable for comment

cowboys?


----------



## stiger (7 July 2006)

I have been to websites of exs and url and found the location of their eps, where is aum in relation to them ?I cannot get onto their website.Regards Stiger.


----------



## cuttlefish (7 July 2006)

Crayfish, 

There is a market announcement to the ASX - the regulated mechanism that companies use to release market senstive data. 

It was released almost a week ago now (on the 29th of June), prior to big share price moves this week. 

It has all of the 'scant' information you claim they haven't provided, and the information has been authorised by a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metalurgy.

It includes information about the form of the copper discovered etc.

(surface oxide and native copper. In the form of malachite and azurite.
Intersected intense pyrite chalcopyrite, chalcocite, quartz carbonate in ironstone (magnetite) blah blah etc. etc.). 

It also has drilling information and assay results, including some diagrams and aerial photos. This same report also has the 59 million tonne 2% ore estimate - they have not claimed it is JORC compliant.  

They have provided some information about when they expect to have JORC compliant estimates of some of the deposits.

If you read through the companies historical announcements you will also see information about their Mt Norma copper suphate pentahydrate production which is a different business.

I would not call someone that refused a request to disclose information about market sensitive data before it had been made available to the market via the proper channels (and while the stock was being actively traded) irresponsible.

I suggest before you make harsh allegations against people you do your research a little more thoroughly.


----------



## lesm (7 July 2006)

jovialTrader said:
			
		

> I received an email from commsec that my order has been purged. I've never had this before. Anyone knows why?
> 
> Hope it's not something terrible, horrible n unbearable...
> 
> JT




It may be something just as simple as your order has expired. If the information is not in the email log on to CommSec and check online.

Something similar to the following would have been in the email:

"was purged by the ASX at 07:01 PM (Sydney Time) 
for the following reason: Stock Purged

More information regarding this order can be found by clicking 'Detail' on this order under the 'Cancelled Orders' option from the 'Order Status' menu of the CommSec site for the next 14 days"


----------



## cuttlefish (7 July 2006)

I think it could be that the shift from trading halt to suspended status means the current queue is cleaned out.  When the stock comes out of suspension it'll go into another pre-open before commencing normal trading.


----------



## lesm (7 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> I think it could be that the shift from trading halt to suspended status means the current queue is cleaned out.  When the stock comes out of suspension it'll go into another pre-open before commencing normal trading.




Cuttlefish,

Think you may be right. When SRK went into suspension they purged the queue.

Jovial should still be able to get this confirmation from the CommSec site though.


----------



## pharaoh (7 July 2006)

*Re: AUM - Australian Mining Investments - Next high*

1. Do u guys think it will start trading again on monday?

2. What price do we all think it will close the day on?

I will guess first - $12

(Am thinking if worth buying at market on open, for a really quick trade)
Thoughts?


----------



## edogg75 (7 July 2006)

gonna be mayhem for at least the first 30mins of trading. If the resource lives up to expectations (ie 12-17 bill in situ), then i am guessing that the price will reach between $15 and $25 by days end.


----------



## pharaoh (7 July 2006)

wow

edogg, do you think it is feasible to put an order in now at say near the top of the list, or on open at market, then put a sell order in immediately?

Is a gamble of course, but seems like it could work for a quick trade right??

Lots of people will just want in, no matter what it retraces to, with profit taking...


----------



## edogg75 (7 July 2006)

OK, here's the deal. I am not a frequent poster here (mainly because it takes too long to get a response), so my history with AUM is not known as well here. I bought AUM at 0.335 in May when the first ann regarding the resource increase came out. Because of this, my plan is simple. I am going to sell half of my stake at 10 (i'm sure that sell will be filled) and hold the rest to see how high it goes. Although I am sorely tempted to ramp the piss out of AUM to try and max the upsurge, I do not want to be in any way responsible for people's financial ruin. Re-entry at re-open is a massive risk proposition that may result in a massive profit or a massive loss. AUM's management seems a little amateurish (word is that they submitted a resourse statement that was rejected by ASX because it lacked sufficient detail), but I still believe that they have the goods in ground. If you decide to buy, DO NOT PANIC IF THE PRICE FLUCTUATES MASSIVELY IN INITIAL TRADING! There will be many T+3 traders that will have to sell immediately to pay for their shares, and there will also be many who bought in cheap that will be erring on the side of caution and selling out immediately. There will also be many new buyers due to the local and international mainstream media scrutiny that AUM has been under recently. Furthermore, If the resource is as big as has been rumoured (12-17bill in situ) then the institutional buyers may come in and buy up until whatever they have calculated is a reasonable buy price (prob between 15 and 25). My advice is, have a go, don't sell before days end, and be ready for the possiblility that you may lose.


----------



## pharaoh (7 July 2006)

Thanks mate

holy dooly, so I am chatting to a millionaire!!!
very jealous you got in, you must be stoked!!!!

i am surprised you didn't sell at $5
I want to find something like this for myself, but then doesn't everyone. 
what do you like at the moment - don't worry, won't put you on too high a mantle cos you picked this one.

to be honest, if I buy in, I will be buying in without the funds, I will have to sell something if i lose - but am willing to take the chance. 

not huge margins to be made now i think, reckon it will open at 10
if i got out at 15 would be happy


----------



## edogg75 (7 July 2006)

LOL. What do I like? Well, I am a fundamentals man that likes long term holds on mining companies that are either producing or about to produce, and that have a project on the horizon that has massive upside potential. So here's what I currently hold (and their key projects).

OXR - gold and copper in laos, Prominent Hill on the way $3.20

AIM - World Class Perkoa zinc mine, Mumbwa [gold, copper, Uranium (Olympic Dam style project JV with BHP)] $0.15

PLA- Smokey Hills about to produce Platinum, Kaplats (Huge platinum prospect in South Africa $0.95

EQN - Massive copper mine in Zambia (massively underpriced) 1.60

PNA - Very good  Gold and Copper resources in Laos and Thailand, Possible takeover target for OXR, Soon to be ASX 200 stock. $0.33

IGR - Aldiss/Randalls Gold project about to be mined, Massive Olympic Dam style mine being test drilled in Oodnadatta. 0.21

AGM - Great nickel resourses and massively underpriced at the mo. $0.29

I believe that all of these stocks give great leverage to commodities, the spot prices of which I feel will continue to rise as China and India continue to grow. They are all either producing or about to produce, and are all either undervalued on known resources or carry consideravle upside if exploration targets are shown to be minable. 

Note that my purchase of AUM was somewhat of a fluke. I had $5000 ready to put into PNA on an order for 0.30 when I saw the ann and decided to take a punt. I am not a millionaire, but at a price of $10, I have so far profited about $145,000 for my $5000 investment. This sort of profit cannot be anticipated, nor should it ever be expected. The above stocks are winners IMHO, but DYOR before investing.


----------



## sangshim (7 July 2006)

Oh my...

Alot of speculation going on here.. 

Someone says AUM shareholders are all been cheated, others says it'll go up and hit $25 soon (There'll be a fluctuation though)

I'm just chewing my fingernails and waiting for the ann. I wish I have 100 fingers to chew over the weekend.. It'll be a long long weekend.


----------



## new girl (8 July 2006)

a fluke? I don't think so edoff75. I have a lot of shares in CTO. what does the guru think they will reach after production?


----------



## crayfish (8 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> they have not claimed it is JORC compliant.
> 
> They have provided some information about when they expect to have JORC compliant estimates of some of the deposits.




Thankyou for the clarification cuttlefish. I would most certainly have done my homework more thouroughly if I was able to open pdfs from my browser, but for whatever reason it isn't working. If someone could post a link so I can download the pdf it would be much appeciated. Anyway, this is not an IT forum so let us move on.

My understanding is that if a mineral resource is not JORC compliant then it cannot be announced to the ASX. I seem to remember something of that nature in relation to an aspiring SA U company last year...What is the difference here? Correct me if I am wrong.


----------



## pharaoh (8 July 2006)

thanks edogg
i'll look into them, look sound though
pulled out of all but eng and imp - a voip co and a gas exp
- engin should double in sp in next 6 months, leading voip co, breakeven approaching, bpl - 26c
IMP has a lease in california, 10 well program tested so far, commercial quantities in all - next 10 drilling to start soon, 1st ten to be hooked to main this month i think

Once again, nice one with aum

sangshim - guess the open and close for aum - go on...
And will it be monday trading again, thats the big question


----------



## edogg75 (8 July 2006)

newgirl, I do not know that much about CTO but some learned friends of mine are very keen holders  of it. At a glance it seems undervalued on the basis of its resource base, but its projected production of 40,000oz/year seems somewhat small. Not a lot of risk, but at a glance, limited upside unless they can ramp up production. Projections indicate that this is the plan, so I recommend that u hold and accumulate (when the price looks good) with a view to getting to $1.50- $2.50 by 2008. I am very bullish on gold, but what I have estimated is (in my view) a conservative estimate. GL.


----------



## stiger (8 July 2006)

Interesting article WAYN,SE WORLD in the australian.


----------



## sangshim (8 July 2006)

More News from the Australian

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19718838-643,00.html

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19718836-643,00.html

No matter what the ann will be like, I think the sp will go down to $3.5 range by the T+3 investers, profit takers and those finger nail chewers..

After that... It can go back up~ or go down deeper~ it all depends on the ann.


----------



## greggy (8 July 2006)

With AUM having gone thru the roof, URL still seems relatively cheap as it is next door to AUM'S ground and already has the significant Roseby Copper Project which is likely to be in production by 2008.  It also has Xstrata on board as a significant shareholder.  The past week I felt like buying AUM at much lower pricer (yes I missed out) but came across Universal Resources (URL) and bought them instead.  Hold on to your hats could this be another Poseidon boom?Good luck to those who have already made a big fortune.But always do your own research.


----------



## pharaoh (8 July 2006)

Greggy, am also looking at url, ggy and exs
for same reasons


----------



## cuttlefish (8 July 2006)

crayfish said:
			
		

> My understanding is that if a mineral resource is not JORC compliant then it cannot be announced to the ASX. I seem to remember something of that nature in relation to an aspiring SA U company last year...What is the difference here? Correct me if I am wrong.




I think you're right - the ASX rules state that resource estimates must be JORC compliant unless for reasons of continuous disclosure and with prior discussion and approval by asx.  I misread the AUM statement, I'm pretty sure what they mean is they are hoping to upgrade from JORC inferred status by end july/early aug - so current estimate is JORC inferred.


----------



## hillman (9 July 2006)

good morning all...wot do u think will happen tomorrow???? i think we will be smiling!!!!


----------



## JustaReader (9 July 2006)

hillman,

The company might have jumped the gun with its results. But I think good news overall coming out. At last you see the small players making some money.

I completely missed out on this baby. Been on my watchlist for ages. 

Best of luck to all.

JaR


----------



## juddy (9 July 2006)

hillman said:
			
		

> good morning all...wot do u think will happen tomorrow???? i think we will be smiling!!!!




I think you should already be smiling.  :


----------



## hillman (9 July 2006)

JaR,
when do you think the info. will come out?
Do you think the AUM shares will survive the turmoil?? I will say a prayer for me [and us all !!] tonight!!

Hope we are smiling this time tomorrow...


----------



## JustaReader (9 July 2006)

hillman,

Indications are strong that news tom will be good. Its people that have missed out that are creating a lot of static... naturally hoping for a retrace.

I hope it will be a good one. Wish I was holding this baby.

JaR


----------



## hillman (9 July 2006)

wot does anyone else think?? wot will the stock open at?? do you think it will open tomorrow??


----------



## sangshim (9 July 2006)

Even if the ann confirms the previous anns, I think sp will go down to 3.5~4.5 range some time tommorrow since this trading halt/suspension has seeded doubts and worries in investers mind and Day traders need to sell their holdings. But I think eventually it will go back up to 10~12 at the end of day imo (if the ann is good). If the ann bad? I don't want to think about it.


----------



## aobed (9 July 2006)

Out of curiosity is there a particular period within which a company must provide announcements?  For example, do announcements need to be provided during normal trading hours?


----------



## hillman (9 July 2006)

aobed said:
			
		

> Out of curiosity is there a particular period within which a company must provide announcements?  For example, do announcements need to be provided during normal trading hours?



 good question...not sure...i just hope that the aum shares hold up well tomorrow


----------



## krisbarry (9 July 2006)

Yes its going to be a very scary day for investors.  Plenty of media articles speculating both good and bad news.

Hope for the best for whatever tomorrow brings


----------



## michael_selway (9 July 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Yes its going to be a very scary day for investors.  Plenty of media articles speculating both good and bad news.
> 
> Hope for the best for whatever tomorrow brings




A good article



> *That Poseidon Feeling
> By Alan Kohler
> How resource stocks have moved*
> 
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## Prospector (9 July 2006)

What a read......

I had a relative who worked in Poseidon during that period - made a packet!  I remember it well!


----------



## NettAssets (10 July 2006)

Well it sounds like Alan Kohler doesn't think the trading halt will be coming off this week. I have a feeling that a few day traders will be sweating bricks by t+3 with no prospect of a sale for another week.
Regards
John
PS Might be time to slip down the pub and grab a slice off market to keep a few silly mates solvent!


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

SMH might be the biggest enemy of AUM
another scary article's been released today.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...copper-prospect/2006/07/09/1152383608462.html


----------



## krisbarry (10 July 2006)

So it may not come out of trading halt this week either, according to some sources.


----------



## feeding_the_fire (10 July 2006)

I actually have a question which may seem dumb, but got me thinking when asked to me.

Why exactly are people willing to pay more for shares in any mining company no matter how big the find?

OK, it seems obvious. But I tried to explain it to a friend, not very successfully…

I explained that the shares were worth ~30 cents, but then they (maybe!) found $18 billion worth of copper, so up goes the price. OK, came the reply, but why does that fact alone mean people are willing to suddenly pay $10.00 a share? What intrinsically has changed due to this $18 billion find? – will you get paid out more per share in dividends? “Err… No..” I said. “I don’t believe they pay dividends.”

So what then?

Is the only reason people buy hoping that other people will be? Fundamentally, why are people suddenly willing to pay $10.00 a share? If these results are confirmed, what would fundamentally change that would make you willing to pay even more? Why does a big find suddenly make a share more inviting, especially considering no dividends are paid?

Or is it simply everyone buying on the hope someone else will buy with the same hope… 

I guess this whole question really goes to why people trade, but it got me thinking! Any insights from anyone? Cheers!


----------



## powerkoala (10 July 2006)

That's called GREED and MORE GREED over the market


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

feeding_the_fire said:
			
		

> I actually have a question which may seem dumb, but got me thinking when asked to me.
> 
> Why exactly are people willing to pay more for shares in any mining company no matter how big the find?
> 
> ...




Oh Well...

If a company has found a way to cure AIDS and Cancer and it will be ready for use in 5 years, wouldn't you want to invest in that company? Nothing has changed yet. Just a potential for future earnings has been changed but no profit generated. But the potential to generate billions of dollars is quite attrracting. Don't you think so?


----------



## edogg75 (10 July 2006)

feeding_the_fire said:
			
		

> What intrinsically has changed due to this $18 billion find?




When you buy shares in a company, you become a part OWNER of the company. What 'intrinsically' changes, is that the company is now worth (in your scenario) $18billion more than it was previously. If you own enough shares, you can become the majority stakeholder in the company, i.e. takeover. Dividends are a way of giving shareholders a piece of the earnings, but any such payment is always calculated into the SP. The main motivation one should have for buying shares in a company is making money in the long term as a result of the success and growth of that company. A sudden $18 billion increase in a company's assets certainly should make an immediate impact on the SP.


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

no ann made yet.
Damn!!! How long should we wait?


----------



## lesm (10 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> no ann made yet.
> Damn!!! How long should we wait?




As long as it takes, patience.

This will test some of the emotions out, won't it.


----------



## powerkoala (10 July 2006)

Don't think it will be opened today.
Maybe next week?
Jeezz... heart pounding...


----------



## Prospector (10 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> SMH might be the biggest enemy of AUM
> another scary article's been released today.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...copper-prospect/2006/07/09/1152383608462.html





If you read this in context with The Australian over the weekend, I think that SMH is really peed off that they were given the line that the Director was OS and they believed it!

If a Director is buying big time as the article suggests, isnt that rather a good sign?  If he had sold when the price hit $10, well, that is another story but he didnt.


----------



## Prospector (10 July 2006)

lesm said:
			
		

> As long as it takes, patience.
> 
> This will test some of the emotions out, won't it.




Took the words out of my mouth lesm!

Although I hope its by Friday because I will be sitting on a plane for 7 hours and wont have access to the internet - unless SIA has wireless broadband  

How cool would that be, sitting on a plane and buying shares :


----------



## aobed (10 July 2006)

Between this and the amount of sport on tellie recently we'll never get any sleep


----------



## edogg75 (10 July 2006)

sleep is for wimps


----------



## ALFguy (10 July 2006)

Prospector said:
			
		

> Took the words out of my mouth lesm!
> 
> Although I hope its by Friday because I will be sitting on a plane for 7 hours and wont have access to the internet - unless SIA has wireless broadband
> 
> How cool would that be, sitting on a plane and buying shares :




I believe they do have wireless broadband....in business class


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

aobed said:
			
		

> Between this and the amount of sport on tellie recently we'll never get any sleep




True..
Wimbledon, Worldcup and AUM...


----------



## Prospector (10 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> I believe they do have wireless broadband....in business class





Now, if all goes according to plan, maybe NEXT time :


----------



## greggy (10 July 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Greggy, am also looking at url, ggy and exs
> for same reasons



Pharaoh,

I hope that the AUM situation works out and that they find a monster deposit.  The upside could be enormous.  I just feel though that URL (Universal Resources) may be a somewhat safer play.  It already has Xstrata on board, raised 22 mill recently and a substantial copper deposit already right near AUM's ground.


----------



## mlennox (10 July 2006)

should open around midday today... hearing rumours of 20+


----------



## edogg75 (10 July 2006)

got a source there chief? Or just speculating?


----------



## ALFguy (10 July 2006)

mlennox said:
			
		

> should open around midday today... hearing rumours of 20+




Yeah, that's some statement!


----------



## DOC (10 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Yeah, that's some statement!




bigtime!
we need more info to back that up.

anyone??


----------



## greggy (10 July 2006)

mlennox said:
			
		

> should open around midday today... hearing rumours of 20+



I hope you're right, but I doubt it. We all need to be patient.  All the nearology stocks have recovered from their lows for the day. Url - 22.5c, EXS 33c, CUO 49C.


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

mlennox said:
			
		

> should open around midday today... hearing rumours of 20+




Oh yeah~ Anyone want to buy my holdings for 50c each?
I have 5 mil shares~ If anyone interested, call me on (02) 9481 1111

:


----------



## JustaReader (10 July 2006)

sangshim,

If you are serious more than happy to buy some off you @ 50 cts

JaR


----------



## edogg75 (10 July 2006)

if you believe he's selling 5mill AUM shares at 50c then i've got some magic beans you might also be interested in


----------



## JustaReader (10 July 2006)

Oops, my smiley failed in the earlier post.

sangshim - you are a very rich man. Well done m8.


----------



## aobed (10 July 2006)

JustaReader said:
			
		

> Oops, my smiley failed in the earlier post.
> 
> sangshim - you are a very rich man. Well done m8.




unless the shares drop to 40 cents


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

JustaReader said:
			
		

> Oops, my smiley failed in the earlier post.
> 
> sangshim - you are a very rich man. Well done m8.




Ha Ha~

5 mil shares are nothing compared to my private 5 mil tonne diamond mine in north pole.


----------



## ALFguy (10 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Oh yeah~ Anyone want to buy my holdings for 50c each?
> I have 5 mil shares~ If anyone interested, call me on (02) 9481 1111
> 
> :




Congratulations go out to Pizza Hut for investment of the year.


----------



## mlennox (10 July 2006)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...copper-prospect/2006/07/09/1152383608462.html

just a rumour going round


----------



## hillman (10 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> no ann made yet.
> Damn!!! How long should we wait?




if anyone hears anything, PLEASE leave a message!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## ALFguy (10 July 2006)

hillman said:
			
		

> if anyone hears anything, PLEASE leave a message!!!!!!!!!!




I think AUM will leave a message with ASX   

Gone noon! Next prediction?


----------



## Denroyd (10 July 2006)

Hi all this is my first post. My prediction is that it will not be at least tomorrow before any news, you could take a view that "no news is good news" which if correct then the ASX will be wanting to ensure the results are totally genuine before release as the stock could swing sharply in either direction.


----------



## aobed (10 July 2006)

Denroyd said:
			
		

> Hi all this is my first post. My prediction is that it will not be at least tomorrow before any news, you could take a view that "no news is good news" which if correct then the ASX will be wanting to ensure the results are totally genuine before release as the stock could swing sharply in either direction.




I agree.. particularly given the media coverage recently, one would assume the ASX would be checking the results very carefully.  However that diligence is good for everyone - even tho it is hard to wait .


----------



## Denroyd (10 July 2006)

Whatever the outcome the ASX have to be sure. Depending on what are the results they are also likely to affect other companies in the area URL EXS & CUO as well as AUM.


----------



## greggy (10 July 2006)

Welcome to this board. It certainly is an exciting time. Lets hope for some even more exciting news from AUM.  As I bought a heap of URL (Universal Resources) at 21c I hope that the nearology effect is a big one on the stocks you've mentioned.


----------



## crayfish (10 July 2006)

From http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=61644:

_*The AMI circus - Dryblower * 


*Monday, July 10, 2006

* 
OH DEAR! What are we to make of Australian Mining Investments and its earth-shattering Rocklands copper discovery in Queensland? As far as Dryblower can see, it's either the biggest thing since sliced bread, and Mt Isa, combined. Or it's going to be a pain in the backside for all concerned.


Fingers crossed that it's the first choice because a major discovery is just what the market needs.

Toes crossed that the bad press over the past 72 hours does not contain any truth because the last thing the market needs is a fizzog, or a discovery which fails to live up to its early promise – for whatever reason.

On the optimistic side of the equation, we have fabulous drill intersections reported by AMI, complete with 59 million tonnes of material at 2.04% copper; a mine in the making.

On the pessimistic side, we have a number of niggling issues that start with a strange rubbishing of Rio Tinto's predecessor company, CRA, for dropping the Rocklands area many years ago, and now involves what appears to be a minor war of words with market regulators and the media.

First, those caustic comments about CRA. They might have seemed fun at the time but they raised eyebrows across the business world for a very simple reason – we are dealing with money, and when it comes to a listed company, we are dealing with "other people's money".

Dryblower, when he first read the CRA remarks, thought them amusing. Now, he's not so sure. For anyone who missed it, here's a potted outline: AMI, in its June 29 discovery report noted that CRA had kicked over the area in the 1980s, and in 1992 suggested that the Double Oxide area of Rocklands was a "major target", adding these words: "It appears CRA was right on the money and directors (of AMI) thank CRA for their contribution."

Gratuitous is one way of describing that remark. Silly is another because all it does is hark back to the time when some AMI people lost a bitter corporate battle with CRA, and they want to tell the world that the old wounds have not healed.

In Dryblower's humble opinion, those wounds ought to have healed and everyone involved should have moved on.

But having revealed a capacity for choosing words unwisely, AMI appears to have had a few problems elsewhere when it comes to getting the details organised correctly, leaving scope for regulators and the media to start forming negative opinions.

Those opinions will be corrected if/when AMI reveals that it really has the goods at Rocklands.

In the meantime, the door has been opened to probing questions into the precise details of share/option conversions, the exact detail of a relationship with a Sydney stock broking firm, and the curious case of Where's Wally – sorry, Where's Wayne.

This final game of finding AMI chief executive, Wayne McCrae, is undoubtedly the silliest part of the exercise but it does provide an insight into how AMI is conducting itself publicly – and that's not very well.

It appears, from assorted media reports, that AMI office staff were instructed to tell inquisitive media types when they 'phoned to speak with Wayne that the boss was unavailable and overseas.

The problem is that only half the answer was true. Wayne was unavailable but he was not overseas. He was in Queensland, at Rocklands.

As with the CRA rubbishing, it sounds like fun at the time. But there is a pattern emerging here and, while gratuitous comments about a rival explorer and leading the media up the garden path are not serious offences, they do say something about AMI.

It's that something which more serious-minded people are now probing because everything comes back to this issue, and mining types must never forget it, even in a boom: public companies deal with the public's money._

__________________________________________________

I definately agree with the second last paragraph...


----------



## greggy (10 July 2006)

In my humble opinion, Wayne MCrae comes across as a down to earth bloke who is sick of the big nobs around saying their right.  The media is turning against him unfairly and the brokers in town are upset for not getting into the action thus far.  From what I can tell, Wayne's worked 7 days a week for many years on 60 grand a year.  Good luck to him and AUM shareholders if they come up with the goods.  I don't have any AUM shares, but have a sizeable stake in URL.  Any other thoughts out there??


----------



## NettAssets (10 July 2006)

The West Australian this morning has a general meeting of AMI listed for Wednesday in Cloncurry
Regards
John


----------



## The Mint Man (10 July 2006)

only just got on the computer for the first time today..... no news yet on AUM??


----------



## aobed (10 July 2006)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> only just got on the computer for the first time today..... no news yet on AUM??




No NEW news.. basically the same information over and over again


----------



## hillman (10 July 2006)

aobed said:
			
		

> No NEW news.. basically the same information over and over again




keep up the faith that Uncle Wayne will help us past the post carrying our sacks full of gold[ or copper or bucks!!!!]


----------



## pharaoh (10 July 2006)

Greggy i agree with you
think url will do well

also, exs and exso should rocket on good news 
bought some exso this morning

here's hoping


----------



## lukentel (10 July 2006)

Hi 

Please forgive me if this has been covered off, I've never seen a thread go for so many pages.

I'm not a freq poster to this as one could tell, I got lucky and one of my clients told me to buy some AUM a week ago at @$4-odd which I sold 2 days later around $8.30 as soon as it started to slide and before the stop (luckily maybe).  So no complaints as I'm ahead.  But as a general query, I've heard mention of other companies in the area such as URL, EXS, Xtrata & CUO... 

Seems everyone is focusing on the drill results. What I was wondering is simply if anyone knows how are the drill results for other companies in the 'area', and to throw a few hypotheticals out there.

But what is bugging me to some extent (if that is the right word) is companies like EXS (or whichever other one is there)... from what I understand is 'next door' and the claims of AUM were true, and the drill results were that strong, I'd figure some guy at EXS would be telling his mate in Brisbane to go buy a million shares of it and they'll split the money down the line. 

And although I think its the market waiting to see what AUM is going to do I dont know why people arent into the other co's and why the others shares didnt rally on say a 'chance' people might become rich like on the AUM deal..

Dont know if thats happened across this region or not.

Thoughts?

(Hopefully this made sense).


----------



## ALFguy (10 July 2006)

lukentel said:
			
		

> Hi
> 
> Please forgive me if this has been covered off, I've never seen a thread go for so many pages.
> 
> ...





Hi Lukentel,

I'm probably not one to answer your queries, being a newbie and (hang on, I appear to be a 'Junior member' now....woohoo    ) not having much experience, but common sense askes....Why would anyone punt a million or so shares on anything without knowing fundamentals and quantative risks!

I suspect everyone (that is, those watching the nearby companies) are simply waiting on reactions to the AUM ann - as you say.

I just want this ann to come out so we can all see the market effects.

Question is, with the AGM on Wednesday, does this mean further delay?


----------



## lesm (10 July 2006)

Prospector,

Forgot to ask, how are the finger nails??


----------



## sangshim (10 July 2006)

lesm said:
			
		

> Prospector,
> 
> Forgot to ask, how are the finger nails??




Woo~ Hoo~ 

I was not the only one enjoying finger nails for last 5 days~

Yum~~~


----------



## ALFguy (11 July 2006)

From The AGE:

HIGH-FLYING copper explorer Australian Mining Investments remains suspended from trading while experts vet its drilling results.

The Australian Stock Exchange-appointed experts are looking at results from the Rocklands copper/cobalt/gold discovery in north Queensland.

The ASX yesterday confirmed an Age report that it had called on outside help to determine if the planned release conformed with strict reporting requirements for mineral discoveries.

It also indicated that following discussions between its experts and AUM, the company could return to the lists today.

But there were no guarantees as owners of AUM stock, who paid as much as $10 a share last Wednesday, sweat on the stock's return to trading.

*A quick return to trading depends on the ASX limiting its vetting to the latest drilling results. If the vetting is extended to all statements on the Rocklands discovery, AUM could face a lengthy period on the sidelines.*

AUM has claimed that Rocklands has an inferred resource of 1.2 million tonnes of (contained) copper equivalent (it gives cobalt and gold an equivalent copper value).

A meeting of shareholders in Cloncurry tomorrow will be asked to approve the issue of 10 million 50 ¢ shares to directors. At a last sale price of $7.11 a share, the options would be worth $66 million. But that assumes the stock holds at its high-flying levels on its return to trading.

>>>> Getting bored now....come on ppl, announce!  :


----------



## stiger (11 July 2006)

Reading early News Reports and HC Ifeel it will come out sometime today just like the company secretary said yesterday.I have no direct interest in AUM but am very eagar to see how it pans out for you people.


----------



## hillman (11 July 2006)

Cheers mate...the palms are getting VERY sweaty and time to let Uncle Wayne [and us] get on with the great stock [here's hoping]

Is today the 'day????'


----------



## chansw (11 July 2006)

http://www.finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19748598-462,00.html

*AMI investors remain in the dark*
From:  Herald Sun
By Mandi Zonneveldt
July 11, 2006  

SHAREHOLDERS in runaway copper explorer Australian Mining Investments remained in the dark last night, with the company's latest release still being reviewed by the Australian Stock Exchange.

The ASX was believed to be consulting geologists over AMI's latest report on drilling at its Rocklands project near Cloncurry in Queensland. 

The corporate watchdog also confirmed yesterday that it was looking at the mining junior. 

An Australian Securities and Investment Commission spokeswoman said ASIC was making inquiries, but refused to comment on the nature of the watchdog's concerns. 

AMI claims to have found a potentially giant copper deposit in the scrub east of Mt Isa, but geologists and analysts say lack of detail in the company's reports make it hard to determine the size and quality of the find. 

More than six million shares in the company were traded last week and close to a million options were exercised. 

AMI requested a trading halt on Wednesday after its share price soared from less than $3 to touch $10. 

It last traded at $7.11. 

The stock was suspended by the exchange on Thursday night.


----------



## sangshim (11 July 2006)

seems like everyone got sick of waiting...


----------



## canny (11 July 2006)

Common sense prevails - and also suggests ASIC believe the find IS good enough to merit re-rating the options price:  

06-237 ASIC stops Australian Mining Investments executive option vote

Tuesday 11 July 2006

ASIC today filed an application with the Supreme Court of Queensland seeking an urgent interlocutory injunction against Australian Mining Investments Limited restraining the company from putting resolutions to approve the issue of executive options to members at its General Meeting (GM) to be held on Wednesday, 12 July 2006. Both parties agreed to Australian Mining Investments providing an undertaking to the Court that it not proceed with the resolutions in relation to the approval of options until 25 August 2006, with ASIC’s application being adjourned to a date to be fixed.

ASIC was concerned that disclosure of the resolutions to approve the issue of a total of 10,000,000 options with an exercise price of 50 cents to Australian Mining Investments directors, Mr Wayne McCrae (7,000,000 options), Mr Timothy Koitka (2,000,000 options) and Mr Peter Hutchinson (1,000,000 options) is materially out of date. The Explanatory Memorandum to the GM values the options based on a share price of Australian Mining Investments as at 29 May 2006, which was 31.5 cents. Australian Mining Investments last traded its shares, prior to going into a trading halt on 5 July 2006, at $7.11. Trading in Australian Mining Investments shares is currently suspended.

‘ASIC is concerned that members were being asked to make a decision about the remuneration of directors on the basis of materially out of date information’, Ms Jennifer O’Donnell, Executive Director of Compliance said.

‘In particular, on the basis of recent market trading, the value of the options to be expensed under International Financial Reporting Standards could be considerably higher than disclosed to Australian Mining Investments shareholders’, Ms O’Donnell said.

ASIC is continuing to monitor disclosure and trading in Australian Mining Investments and liaise with the Australian Stock Exchange.

http://asic.gov.au/asic/asic_pub.ns...nvestments+executive+option+vote?openDocument
---


----------



## dcart3r (11 July 2006)

read what you will into this. released today just before market close...

_SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian Mining Investments Ltd. (AUM.AU) is continuing to
negotiate with the regulator over the release of drilling results from its potentially
lucrative Rocklands copper project.
  Trading in the company's shares on the Australian Stock Exchange was halted
Wednesday, pending the release of results from recent exploratory drilling at the project
near Cloncurry, Queensland.
  The miner says it was unaware of any problems behind the delay of the statement that
was due Monday and continues to await its review by the exchange's independent
geologist ahead of its release.
  A spokesman for the ASX couldn't provide a timetable for when the statement would
be released but said it would be "as soon as possible" once it could be ensured
there was "sufficient information out there so the market can be sufficiently
informed to trade."
  "We're in discussions with the company over additional disclosure...as we
were yesterday," added the spokesman confirming there were technical issues
involved, as there would be with any exploratory miner.
  Investors will be hoping an announcement is made before a shareholders' meeting
0000 GMT Wednesday in Cloncurry.
  AUM's share price skyrocketed after drill results released June 29, outlined an
inferred resource of 59 million tons at 2.04% copper equivalent.
  From a close of A$1.78 on June 28, the shares touched A$10 on July 5 before trading was
halted. In earl June, the shares were trading around 50 cents. _

let's hope that AUM is unaware of any problems because it's a good confirmation for their previous release


----------



## ALFguy (11 July 2006)

Interesting article Dcart3r.....thanks for posting.

Let's hope they don't hold the ann up for too much loonger!


----------



## hypnotic (11 July 2006)

dcart3r said:
			
		

> read what you will into this. released today just before market close...
> 
> _SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian Mining Investments Ltd. (AUM.AU) is continuing to
> negotiate with the regulator over the release of drilling results from its potentially
> ...




It is definitely a very interesting piece of news. I hope the announcement is going to be out tomorrow and it points to positive news.    

Hypnotic


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (11 July 2006)

I'm curious but did any day trades get burned by the settlement requirements of this play, ie bought for a day trade a fairly large parcel, went into trading halt, t+3 = yesterday,


Anyone get burned?

Surely somewhen went in for a day trade and have had to quickly get access to cash to settle? ? ? ? ? 

Just Curious as I thought there were alot of day traders on this


----------



## jovialTrader (11 July 2006)

Yes YT, You are right...I'm one of those who got burned...and just hoping that when the trading halt is lifted, it is pointing north..else, I'll be burned to beyong recognition...


----------



## DOC (11 July 2006)

yes as well young trader,

although i'm not a regular day trader,
I wasnt anticipating having to come up with the mula.
 
i've been on a bread and water diet since.


----------



## Bomba (11 July 2006)

ASIC today filed an application with the supreme court of QLD seeking an URGENT interlocutory injunction against AUM, restraining the company from putting resolutions to approve the issue of executive options to members at its gm to be held wed.


----------



## sangshim (12 July 2006)

no ann yet.

Why don't they give us a timeline?


----------



## greggy (12 July 2006)

Still waiting for the AUM announcement.  Its 9;33 am and still no news of an announcement on the website.  I've never seen so much scrutiny of a pending announcement like this before.  ASIC is also taking a tough approach which is surprising considering that it often sits on its backside doing nothing (e.g. please refer to Westpoint and other financial disasters for more info). Fingers crossed for a positive announcement today.


----------



## sangshim (12 July 2006)

Look!!

Ann just released but don't have access to it yet!

I'm using commsec and a news icon has pop up in the watchlist.

Wish it's a real ann we've been waiting for


----------



## jovialTrader (12 July 2006)

Nothin serious on the ann...just the same info that we have read on the news....

JT


----------



## sangshim (12 July 2006)

Doh!

It's a ann regarding the gm.. Damn it.


----------



## hypnotic (12 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Look!!
> 
> Ann just released but don't have access to it yet!




Where did you find the annoucement?


----------



## ALFguy (12 July 2006)

hypnotic said:
			
		

> Where did you find the annoucement?




All announcements can be read through asx.com.au


----------



## greggy (12 July 2006)

I've just found it as well posted on Comsec under announcements.  Todays meeting at 10 am will still go ahead, but the options issue will be discussed on another occasion.


----------



## hypnotic (12 July 2006)

greggy said:
			
		

> I've just found it as well posted on Comsec under announcements.  Todays meeting at 10 am will still go ahead, but the options issue will be discussed on another occasion.




Thanks Alfguy and greggy

The HSBC one didn't show any announcements for AUM.........

Lets see how this pans out

Hpynotic


----------



## DOC (12 July 2006)

just read it.
No news, except for the confirmation of 10 million options at 50c are not going through at that price and will be revalued at a more appropriate price next month. good for shareholders

i use westpac broking. news and prices are real time.

cheers


----------



## Prospector (12 July 2006)

greggy said:
			
		

> Still waiting for the AUM announcement.  Its 9;33 am and still no news of an announcement on the website.  I've never seen so much scrutiny of a pending announcement like this before.  ASIC is also taking a tough approach which is surprising considering that it often sits on its backside doing nothing (e.g. please refer to Westpoint and other financial disasters for more info). Fingers crossed for a positive announcement today.




I have noticed the Directors of AUM don't wear expensive imported suits.


----------



## cuttlefish (12 July 2006)

The irony is that AUM informed the market as to the potential size of this find via an independant geologists report back in December last year (05). That report estimated potential for 49 million tonnes ore at 1.6% Cu.  

The ASX queried it back then and they responded. The share price rose, the ASX queried, they responded. They've been releasing information as they go for the past 6 months as to the progress of their drilling etc.

If I was a shareholder I'd be happy for them to receive their options - they've created a lot of value for the shareholders that followed them and bought on the earlier announcements. 

There's plenty of executives that have gotten paid massive bonuses while the share price of the company they are running has dropped like a stone. 

So why shouldn't the people running one thats had a share price rise be able to participate in the result.


----------



## Prospector (12 July 2006)

I agree with you cuttlefish but I guess this is about transparency.  How can the shareholders vote when the stock is under suspension - while most might vote in favour, realistically they are doing so 'blind' - ie not fully informed, according to ASX.


----------



## greggy (12 July 2006)

Prospector said:
			
		

> I have noticed the Directors of AUM don't wear expensive imported suits.



Uncle Wayne can't afford expensive suits being on $60,000 a year.  I am wondering whats going at the co's meeting.  It surely must be halfway thru by now.


----------



## Prospector (12 July 2006)

greggy said:
			
		

> Uncle Wayne can't afford expensive suits being on $60,000 a year.  I am wondering whats going at the co's meeting.  It surely must be halfway thru by now.




Quite, it also means he isn't part of any exclusive club too!


----------



## ALFguy (12 July 2006)

greggy said:
			
		

> Uncle Wayne can't afford expensive suits being on $60,000 a year.  I am wondering whats going at the co's meeting.  It surely must be halfway thru by now.




Do you think there will be any news released following the meeting? Surely someone will talk to the press or at least there'll be a few rumours bouncing around.

I can just see the ann coming out during the meeting and hundreds of holders dashing off to ride the news!


----------



## greggy (12 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Do you think there will be any news released following the meeting? Surely someone will talk to the press or at least there'll be a few rumours bouncing around.
> 
> I can just see the ann coming out during the meeting and hundreds of holders dashing off to ride the news!



I agree. Surely some shareholders will ask a few questions at the meeting.


----------



## hillman (12 July 2006)

greggy said:
			
		

> I agree. Surely some shareholders will ask a few questions at the meeting.




thanks for all the news...it keeps me going during these tough times...bad week to stay off the booze due to a crook throat...let's hope for some GREAT news fros ASIC  then plenty of bourb and cokes to mend the vocal corda...


----------



## Prospector (12 July 2006)

hillman said:
			
		

> thanks for all the news...it keeps me going during these tough times...bad week to stay off the booze due to a crook throat...let's hope for some GREAT news fros ASIC  then plenty of bourb and cokes to mend the vocal corda...





Pink champers for me.....please


----------



## aobed (12 July 2006)

that'll certainly help get over the mid-week blues


----------



## aobed (12 July 2006)

Results of the general meeting today have been posted on the asx website.  Seems like we are in for a change of name.


----------



## new girl (12 July 2006)

Hi all

A resolution to change the company name just been passed, does anyone know how that will affect the trading? will the company announce a new asx code for us to trade with?

many thanks


----------



## dcart3r (12 July 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> Hi all
> 
> A resolution to change the company name just been passed, does anyone know how that will affect the trading? will the company announce a new asx code for us to trade with?
> 
> many thanks




likely there will be a new code. a date will be set for when AUM changes to 'XXX' and on the morning of that day, the order book in SEATS will be updated. broker's systems should also automatically convert the security code in all open orders.

if the drilling announcement is released over the next few days, then i daresay we will all be trading AUM for a while until the code change (if any) is effected.


----------



## dcart3r (12 July 2006)

Released at 16:56:55 today...

_Mr McCrae has advised that he disposed on market 8,000 options in the AUMOA class on Wednesday, 5
July 2006. Mr McCrae subsequently exercised 278,460 options in the AUMO class at 20 cents each for
total subscription monies of $55,692 and the Company has therefore allotted 278,460 shares to him. The
attached Appendix 3Y reflects these changes. *Mr McCrae advises that he has chosen to reinvest the
proceeds from sale of the AUMOA options into ordinary shares of the Company.*_

note the bold line. this is a positive sign, albeit not an overly strong one.


----------



## BSD (12 July 2006)

Does anybody who actually owns this stock have a valuation in mind?

Assuming Wayne actually has 100mt at 2.0% Cu - anyone keen to put a value on the company. 

Personally, I would say around $1.00 ~$100mAUD

For starters, they will need about $30m for feasibility and $600m to develop it.

No cashflow until at least 2014.


----------



## stiger (12 July 2006)

HI Fans CU DECO CO new  name Copper-find of Decade-Cobalt.Good Luck.


----------



## cuttlefish (12 July 2006)

BSD - I had a stab at valuing it, even though I'm out of my depth with mining companies. But I'm not that keen to discuss valuations in the forum. 

I did use some of the companies you put up as a comparison (though I went and validated the info you provided first hand), and did factor in development costs (used $500 mill) and associated capital raisings required (e.g. 100m shares) etc. I thought grade was an important factor because it influences cost per pound quite a bit I think (?). I thought ABY wasn't a bad comparison to get an idea of what it might be worth once in production because they also have fairly high grade resource (and are also Australian based).  The difficult part is the difference between an in-production valuation vs an undeveloped valuation.


----------



## sangshim (12 July 2006)

-----------------------------
1) Anyone holding shares in Aum should lidten to the ABC's News Radio report just on. Aum are going it alone, it's the biggest thing since sliced bread and they hope to relist tomorrow into a " frenzy" according to the reporter who was at the meeting today and then visited the site.

2) Just heard ABC TV Reporter on ABC News Radio - very very positive report.

On ABC TV news at 7.00 tonight.

Mention of shares trading tomorrow and a possible 'buying frenzy'. 'Find of the Century'. Unquote

3) Just wondering who are some of the lucky holders on HC who stand to make or have made a fortune out of this. Don't be shy.

Half your luck you lucky pr#cks.....lol. Well done.


None of this is from me....just copied from HC - make of it what you will ...... 
-------------------------

has anyone actually watched/listened the news?


----------



## jovialTrader (12 July 2006)

Hi Sangshim,

Do you know if that news/report available on the net at all?? I've tried searching for it from ABC.net.au, but cant seem to find anything about it...I hope the news is true.....hihihih  

JT


----------



## BSD (12 July 2006)

* But I'm not that keen to discuss valuations in the forum. * 



Why not? Everyone else is keen to discuss the potential for a bigger mug to buy their shares at $25+!

Anyway, without the breakdown of respective Copper, Gold and Cobalt it is impossible. Normally these are split and not combined in Cu equivalent announcements. Let alone a bankable feasibility, EPC, mine plan etc. 

NPV is the way do value the company - so let's have a swing 

A 15% discount would be the minimum. 

Most analysts would then apply a discount to the prospective NPV  to account for the risk ($1m in bank and a few holes)

You would use a $1.20 copper price (most long term estimates are around this level) and a cost per pound based on similar graded open cut mines. 

Dilution based on estimates and a level of debt estimate. 

Lets assume 200,000 tn of Cu for 10 years from 2014 - 2024.

That is mining the often touted $20bn worth of in-situ resource in very quick time. 

For a very rough example, if you used a $500mAUD estimate of debt, an assumption of 200m shares on issue, $0.75AUDUSD and $0.50 lb costs (very low) the NPV at 15% discount per share is $1.01. 

But in Wayne's World - I am a d!ckhead


*NOTE
I hope Wayne's deposit is true and gets bigger. I just wouldnt pay more than $1.00 for a share. *


----------



## sangshim (12 July 2006)

jovialTrader said:
			
		

> Hi Sangshim,
> 
> Do you know if that news/report available on the net at all?? I've tried searching for it from ABC.net.au, but cant seem to find anything about it...I hope the news is true.....hihihih
> 
> JT




I've searched abc.net.au and couldn't find it. And ppl talk about the Sky news so I've went to living room and searched for the sky news business headline but couldn't find any neither....

Wish it's not just another speculation.


----------



## jovialTrader (12 July 2006)

Hi All, 

This is what I've found....Uncle Wayne is going to the Police tomorrow....

*AMI cries foul over meeting infiltrators
Wednesday Jul 12 21:27 AEST*

_The boss of a junior resources explorer is considering going to police after accusing two men of infiltrating his company's shareholder meeting in Cloncurry, northwest Queensland.

Australian Mining Investments Ltd chairman Wayne McCrae said two men claimed they were shareholders, but subsequent checks of the share register revealed they were not.

After the formal part of the meeting, about 60 shareholders were taken by bus to the site of the company's Rocklands copper project, where one of the men allegedly took photos and global positioning system (GPS) readings.

Mr McCrae said he believed the infiltrators were from rival companies trying to find out commercially sensitive information.

advertisement
"I'll be talking to the police tomorrow," Mr McCrae said._


JT


----------



## cuttlefish (12 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> NPV is the way do value the company - so let's have a swing
> 
> ...
> the NPV at 15% discount per share is $1.01.




Taking your parameters it took me a while to realise why I was out by an order of magnitude from your figures, until I remembered to put the time till development into it.  (still didn't quite get there, got 1.37 for some reason   lol  I'll blame beer   )  - maybe I mucked up the exchange rate.

Wonder if there would be any technical feasability (forgetting commercial for the moment) in using xstrata's EH infrastructure to expedite development.


----------



## lukentel (12 July 2006)

Good Evening.

For what its worth... dont read much into it as it was a frenzied chat and a lot of the info is admittedly second hand to some extent.

I spoke to someone who was in Cloncurry on site where the AGM meeting was held earlier today (non AMI related person).  They were extremely rushed and couldnt talk due to other obligations but they mentioned that all the stuff going on lately is good for business and the area.  "Its all good".  

Cant tell you much more except I'm going to run a bit of a punt on a few of the local other 30c stocks, reason being the share price is way lower and its a bit of a lesser risk to spend on them and hope for the increase than take a bashing on AUM if it happens.

On another note, I spoke to a mate who has a private HSBC client broker, the broker said that there is another company which borders AUM and a fence separates the 2 companies.  The other company (Whatever it is) has been drilling in the area for years and hasnt found anything.  So he thinks AUM is going to be a flop.

As I dont know who it is or where the drills are in then cant help anything further.

Fascinating stuff though.  This will be one for this history books.
The time of speculation in minor mining stocks....


----------



## noirua (13 July 2006)

A MSN link on the meeting: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=111213


----------



## Super Chicken (13 July 2006)

lukentel said:
			
		

> Good Evening.
> 
> For what its worth... dont read much into it as it was a frenzied chat and a lot of the info is admittedly second hand to some extent.
> 
> ...





EXS perhaps.


----------



## lukentel (13 July 2006)

also interesting in the name change.

CuDeco.

Cu - copper
Deco - de-co...the co?  or is it latin with the dec meaning ten...

Either way I'm liking things if it means the copper company or copper x 10fold.


----------



## Super Chicken (13 July 2006)

lukentel said:
			
		

> also interesting in the name change.
> 
> CuDeco.
> 
> ...




What affect, if any, will the name change have on existing shares/ company structure?


----------



## DOC (13 July 2006)

nothing at all, as far as i know.


----------



## cuttlefish (13 July 2006)

BSD - a couple of other comments - by having 200m shares but also incorporating 500m debt into the npv calculation isn't that sort of double counting the debt?  Also been thinking that only an additional 100m shares is probably optimistic for raising that amount of cap, maybe 200m a bit more realistic. Maybe an either/or for the NPV calc  - either 120m shares and 500m debt,  or no debt and 300m shares.  Also obviously taking a year or two off the time to development makes a big difference as well.   But the again if prod costs go up only a little, and also recovery rates are a factor they'd all have an influence as well.   The range of valuations could get quite wide depending on how the various params are tweaked. 

But its an interesting exercise and will be interesting to see where the share price itself actually settles over the next few weeks.


----------



## sangshim (13 July 2006)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19771286-643,00.html

The trading may not resume today... That's what I felt after reading this article..


----------



## sangshim (13 July 2006)

Whatever the result of this speculation is... the ASIC and ASX didn't do their job properly. I really want to throw a stone or two at ASIC and ASX!

Why did they just watch all this for one and a half month and goes for the trading halt/suspension and investigation all of sudden? Were they on a holiday or something? If it's a kind of matter needs to be on tading suspension over one week, why didn't they react on it in a earlier stage?

 

Sick of waiting...


----------



## visual (13 July 2006)

from watching the ABC news yesterday, I`ll I got is that maybe someone is playing fast and loose with the truth.I wish all who own these shares the very best of luck,but something isnt right.

By the way what kind of information could the* informers* get hold of anyway,shouldn`t all the information that the shareholders were getting have been available to all anyway.Thats I presume is the deal with continual disclosure.Anyway good luck to all and hope that I`m wrong


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (13 July 2006)

On a speculative stance, who would stick out their necks and give a price at which AUM will trade @ ,once suspension is lifted.....$8.00???? or ++++++????... The spin doctors are spinning their yarn on this one.....The Poseidon factor!


----------



## greggy (13 July 2006)

visual said:
			
		

> from watching the ABC news yesterday, I`ll I got is that maybe someone is playing fast and loose with the truth.I wish all who own these shares the very best of luck,but something isnt right.
> 
> By the way what kind of information could the* informers* get hold of anyway,shouldn`t all the information that the shareholders were getting have been available to all anyway.Thats I presume is the deal with continual disclosure.Anyway good luck to all and hope that I`m wrong



Watched the 7pm ABC News with interest last night.  My understanding from watching is that they have had a minor problem in one area with their drilling as they've hit pure copper.  If I've got this right, then this may well be a very exciting discovery. I'm hoping for another Poseidon boom. But when is AUM going to relist???


----------



## NettAssets (13 July 2006)

lukentel said:
			
		

> also interesting in the name change.
> 
> CuDeco.
> 
> ...




I can't find the cite for it now but I read somewhere from a company comment it is.

CU find of the DEcade with CObalt.
regards
John


----------



## ALFguy (13 July 2006)

Snippit from *ABC news* article today:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1685442.htm

Director Wayne McCrae says he has kept shareholders well informed and is putting their interests first.

"The only thing I'm interested in doing right now is drilling it up as quickly as we can, before a major mining house makes a bid for us, which may happen and it may not, but to get the best value we can for shareholders," he said.

Mr McCrae says the company has been put under the microscope.

"We've addressed all their concerns, I've been doing this for 30 years and I've addressed all their concerns all the time," he said.

"I guess one person looks at it one way and one looks at it another.

"But as long as the shareholders are happy, as long as the ASX is happy and ASIC are happy, I think everyone is happy."

Mr McCrae says he hopes the company's shares will resume trading today after being suspended.


----------



## greggy (13 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Snippit from *ABC news* article today:
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1685442.htm
> 
> Director Wayne McCrae says he has kept shareholders well informed and is putting their interests first.
> ...



If Wayne is right and the shares are relisted today then our wait is probably over.


----------



## ALFguy (13 July 2006)

greggy said:
			
		

> If Wayne is right and the shares are relisted today then our wait is probably over.




Wouldn't that be nice.....But still depends on whether ASX are happy.


----------



## noirua (13 July 2006)

All the small mining stocks on the ASX will be watching the outcome of AUM with great concern. If anything goes disastrously wrong then the whole castle comes tumbling down. Comments in the Poseidon days: " I was walking across the tenement and kicked a rock, by golly there is nickel all over the surface of this place ", we know the result. Bre-X followed 18 years later and now AUM.
It would therefore be extremely surprising if the ASX allowed trading to start with the prospects of a boom collapse scenario staring them in the face.


----------



## greggy (13 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> All the small mining stocks on the ASX will be watching the outcome of AUM with great concern. If anything goes disastrously wrong then the whole castle comes tumbling down. Comments in the Poseidon days: " I was walking across the tenement and kicked a rock, by golly there is nickel all over the surface of this place ", we know the result. Bre-X followed 18 years later and now AUM.
> It would therefore be extremely surprising if the ASX allowed trading to start with the prospects of a boom collapse scenario staring them in the face.



I agree.  I'm hoping that things turn out well, otherwise we may have a bloodbath on our hands in the speccie sector. Still an optimist though.  Better things to come.


----------



## aobed (13 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> All the small mining stocks on the ASX will be watching the outcome of AUM with great concern. If anything goes disastrously wrong then the whole castle comes tumbling down. Comments in the Poseidon days: " I was walking across the tenement and kicked a rock, by golly there is nickel all over the surface of this place ", we know the result. Bre-X followed 18 years later and now AUM.
> It would therefore be extremely surprising if the ASX allowed trading to start with the prospects of a boom collapse scenario staring them in the face.




Actually, this raises an interesting question.  Is it possible for the ASX to intervene and set an appropriate price for a share price in the instances where the market has managed to get the price quite wrong to protect the ASX?  I'm not suggesting that is the case with this particular company but in general?


----------



## ALFguy (13 July 2006)

aobed said:
			
		

> Actually, this raises an interesting question.  Is it possible for the ASX to intervene and set an appropriate price for a share price in the instances where the market has managed to get the price quite wrong to protect the ASX?  I'm not suggesting that is the case with this particular company but in general?




I would be shocked if they had that sort of power. Who are they to decide on an appropriate trading price!  :


----------



## greggy (13 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> I would be shocked if they had that sort of power. Who are they to decide on an appropriate trading price!  :



Share prices should be left to the free market to decide, not the ASX, especially when they are so SLOW in taking any action.


----------



## ALFguy (13 July 2006)

Sure this has been mentioned before but just for clarify.
Once the announcement is out, how long before trading resumes?

Also, if/when we go into pre-open, would someone be so kind as to post an updated *IAP*? please!


----------



## parmigianich (13 July 2006)

Gruezi..
Just joined- hopefully I will become a regular

I bought up almost 100,000 AUM shares back in Feb on my fathers advice at an average price of $0.165.  At the same time he was pushing me towards CitiGold (CTO) and I accumulated over 300,000 shares in CTO for an average price of $0.1675.  CTO has been trading in the $0.30- $0.40c range for the past couple of months so by no means have I done badly there but still it would have been nice if I rather had bought a few more AUM. lol.  I sold about 90% of my holding in AUM Monday last week as soon as they hit $3 and am happy I did so despite them trading as high as $10 just 2 days later.  I am gernerally quite skeptical about the prospects of the so called discovery but I really don't have much of a clue.  The company definitely seems to have handled itself poorly but maybe in some sense that is almost to be expected from such a junior exploration company.  Hopefully and more importanly their technical skills and integrity are up to scratch.  Talking to my father he seems to think, for those that missed the boat with AUM, that Sedimentary Holdings (SED) could potentially be the next AUM.  They are a gold exploration company and have a 30% interest in the Cracow gold project (Newcrest 70%).  Gold is currently being produced at Cracow and SED are now trading at a multiple of 8 times earnings, while exploration continues.  The operation as it currently stands is far too small for Newcrest to normally have any interest in whatsoever so obviously they hold good hope of further discoveries on the site which does makes SED very interesting.  But for now anyway I am still holding more than 9,000 AUM shares and am just as eagerly anticipating this anouncement as I know all of you must be.


----------



## hillman (13 July 2006)

thanks for your comment...well done!! you have been a smart player ...please say a prayer for us 'hardy' people who are developing ulcers by the second!!!!


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## krisbarry (13 July 2006)

It must be a lot of stress for all AUM holders, I feel your pain, I will say a few prayers


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## aobed (13 July 2006)

one hour to go till the end of trading today.. looks like no announcement today.  Another day to wait for AUM holders


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## Staybaker (13 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Also, if/when we go into pre-open, would someone be so kind as to post an updated *IAP*? please!



When it goes into pre-open, the IAP will be changing rapidly, second by second. I don't see much point anyone posting the IAP here because it would be immediately out of date before anyone even sees it.

Cheers, Staybaker.


----------



## ALFguy (13 July 2006)

Staybaker said:
			
		

> When it goes into pre-open, the IAP will be changing rapidly, second by second. I don't see much point anyone posting the IAP here because it would be immediately out of date before anyone even sees it.
> 
> Cheers, Staybaker.




Yeah I appreciate that, but some indication of the range would be helpful I'm sure. Unless of course it's really 'all over the show'.


----------



## dcart3r (13 July 2006)

something to think about - if it turns out AUM has in fact scored a major find on the scale thus far suggested, it is very likely a big mining co. will make a bid for AUM once the find has been confirmed 100%. this will obviously put a price floor in place with the potential for a good ol' fashioned takeover bidding war between some of the big players. i imagine some of the insto brokers are just as eager to see the ann as the rest of the retail investors out there, but for quite different reasons


----------



## dcart3r (13 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Yeah I appreciate that, but some indication of the range would be helpful I'm sure. Unless of course it's really 'all over the show'.




i have access to that information, so will try to post it provided it isn't too highly volatile


----------



## greggy (13 July 2006)

dcart3r said:
			
		

> i have access to that information, so will try to post it provided it isn't too highly volatile



Still waiting for AUM to come back on. No new announcements.  So sick of waiting, I bought some Sunshine Gas (SHG) this afternoon.  They have 50% interest in a UK oil play to be drilled in Aug 06.  The prospect contains   potentially well over 500 million barrels of recoverable oil.  The stock has around 22 million cash and is capitalised at 78 million. Tollhurst Noall has a spec buy on it (latest research dated 26/6/06).  If they strike oil who knows where it goes.  As always, do your own research before buying.


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## crayfish (13 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> -----------------------------
> 
> 'Find of the Century'. Unquote





pfffft...anyone ever heard of Olympic Dam, Century, Cannington, Prominent Hill, Ernest Henry? These are "world-class" discoveries in the true sense.

And while there's all this Poseidon talk let's compare this AUM phenomonon with something relatively recent and relevant wrt share prices, drilling and resource announcements. I recount...

MNR discovered Prominent Hill in 2001 in JV with BHPB. The ASX announcement saw a rise in MNR share price from 0.16 to 1.60 in a day, before hitting the giddy heights of 3.00 a few weeks later upon announcement of follow up results. (Keep in mind that gold and base metal prices were quite a bit different from our current situation at the time). The reason for the spectacular increase was largely due to: 1) the geological similarity between PH and OD mineralisation, and 2) the width and grade of the intersections. 

All the same the MD of MNR repeatedly said that one hole does not make a mine, and he was right - even he admitted that the 3.00 mark was breached purely due to hype.

It took MNR the best part of 3 years to drill out PH to a stage where a JORC compliant resource could be estimated...*3 years* for 100Mt! All this time the MNR share price yo-yoed with every drilling update. IIRC MNR released detailed sections and plans with almost every announcement...in effect anyone who knew anything about resource estimates could have done a 'back of the envelope' estimate themselves just by using the info in these announcements.  By the time OXR acquired MNR, one MNR share was valued at around $2.20...not a bad return for the true believers (yes, I am happily amoungst them).

In comparison, 

Here we have a situation where AUM have done exactly the opposite. A few months and 59Mt magically appears...

1. Plans and sections are garbage - no labelling of drill holes.
2. Assay results - Cu only - from just a few holes announced (their announcement mentions 106 holes). Have I missed something?
3. No tabled Co results.
4. No tabled Au results. In fact the announcement states: _"Although gold has just been added to our assay mineral list it will also add an additional revenue stream to the project."_ Oh really? How can an estimate include gold credits with ummm, how many assays?
5. The only decriptions of geological setting come from an old CRA report:

_"CRA described in “addition to the shear zone copper in realization at Double Oxide it appears that the previous drilling also intersected copper values at shallow depth some distance removed from the shear zone. CRA explained conceivable, therefore a flat layer of copper extends laterally away from the mineralized shear zone. If the layers was widespread tonnages could be significant and mining would be a simple proposition”. (Excerpt from CRA August 1992 Report)."_

Could someone please translate the second sentence for me please? Is it a CRA report explaining what CRA did in the past? If the layers was??? In fact the wording and grammer is extremely poor/unprofessional throughout the entire document, to the extent that it is questionable whether anyone actually read it before its release.

Another example: _"They described the “principle mineralized structure, the Double Oxide share..."_ Don't they mean shear?

Surely if _they_ have drilled this out to resource satus then _they_ would be able to give their own account of the geology...

6. AUM refer to Rocklands as an "orebody" - Ouch. A deposit yes, but an orebody it is not.

7. The biggy of them all. Non-JORC compliance. What are the geographical extents of the "orebody"? How many samples were used in the calculation? Have inter-laboratory checks been undertaken?  What are their QAQC results like? What method was used for the resource calculation, Kriging? What size are their "ore-blocks"? How well do they know the surface position of their drill holes? Were downhole surveys undertaken, and if so, did they use a method that wasn't going to be effected by all the magnetite in their "orebody"? How did they calculate the SG of their samples, and ultimately, the SG of their "ore-blocks"?

Unfortunately, unless they are much more advanced on point 7 than they are letting on, then I can't see a JORC-compliant resource "just around the corner".

In addition, all "proper" mineral explration companies that I know of actually have a "proper" website oulining projects and prospects.


----------



## cuttlefish (13 July 2006)

crayfish, good post - its good to hear a frank critique of the reports they've released.  In relation to the 106 drill holes that they keep bandying about  I think it relates to historical drilling results they've got that were done by CRA and others years ago. They released a report in December 05 (before they started drilling) that assessed the potential resource as 49 mill tonnes of 1.6% Cu ore, but I'm  not sure if they've ever provided any detailed data about those historical drill results back then or in any of the announcements they've done since - if they had it might give more of an idea of why they've come up with the resource estimates they have.  Supposedly that report back in Dec was reviewed by an independant geologist.


----------



## michael_selway (13 July 2006)

parmigianich said:
			
		

> Gruezi..
> Just joined- hopefully I will become a regular
> 
> I bought up almost 100,000 AUM shares back in Feb on my fathers advice at an average price of $0.165.  At the same time he was pushing me towards CitiGold (CTO) and I accumulated over 300,000 shares in CTO for an average price of $0.1675.  CTO has been trading in the $0.30- $0.40c range for the past couple of months so by no means have I done badly there but still it would have been nice if I rather had bought a few more AUM. lol.  I sold about 90% of my holding in AUM Monday last week as soon as they hit $3 and am happy I did so despite them trading as high as $10 just 2 days later.  I am gernerally quite skeptical about the prospects of the so called discovery but I really don't have much of a clue.  The company definitely seems to have handled itself poorly but maybe in some sense that is almost to be expected from such a junior exploration company.  Hopefully and more importanly their technical skills and integrity are up to scratch.  Talking to my father he seems to think, for those that missed the boat with AUM, that Sedimentary Holdings (SED) could potentially be the next AUM.  They are a gold exploration company and have a 30% interest in the Cracow gold project (Newcrest 70%).  Gold is currently being produced at Cracow and SED are now trading at a multiple of 8 times earnings, while exploration continues.  The operation as it currently stands is far too small for Newcrest to normally have any interest in whatsoever so obviously they hold good hope of further discoveries on the site which does makes SED very interesting.  But for now anyway I am still holding more than 9,000 AUM shares and am just as eagerly anticipating this anouncement as I know all of you must be.




SED not bad low fwd PE

*SED - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -1.0 2.4 4.3 3.8 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0. * 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 2.4 8.3 -- 
Year Ending 30-06-07 4.3 4.7 79.2% 



> *AMI chief sold at high price *
> 
> Date: 13/7/2006
> Author: Jamie Freed
> ...




thx

MS


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## sangshim (13 July 2006)

Fish here~ Fish There~

It must be a good fishing spot.


----------



## NettAssets (13 July 2006)

Author: Jamie Freed 
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 25 said:
			
		

> *AMI chief sold at high price *
> ................
> He has made a paper profit of about $A2m due to the recent stock price increase




I know he probably doesn't write his own headlines but those two lines just do not add up.and there was nothing else about share sales in the piece to justify the headline. absolute bull**** journalism.
John


----------



## petal (13 July 2006)

Maybe what people should look beyond one aspect of a company. 

AUM actually has other mining sites which although are not on the scale of the current find still remain very promising.  The Mt Norma mine should be reopening shortly.  This is a rich mine supplying the ore for the copper sulphate penta hydrate plant as well as feed stock being supplied from other sites.  Last production rate was at five tonnes per day which means they are making money.  The deeper ore body has yet to be tapped as the emphasis has been on the copper oxide which is found above the water table.  The copper sulphides are found below the water table and are not suitable for copper sulphate production. 

I believed also that their technology will benefit not only AUM but also other mining companies to recover the residual metals in their tailing dumps.  It can be used as a great environmental tool in cleaning up areas such as the degradation caused by the Mt Lyell mine in Tasmania. The federal government has not come good with the necessary funds although the Tasmanian government has signed a Heads of Agreement.

Additionally, another thing to consider is that AUM has an interest in the Galilee methane gas project at Longreach of which Eastern Corp with 52% is the main operator.  I think AUM has about 7% of this.  If they can successfully organise a dewatering of the wells and an American expert is currently working on this then this will be another revenue stream. 

I am also going to point out that on the same mineral lease as the Rockland group there is an area which has not yet been tested but has a recorded uranium reading from memory of 39%.  This was supposed to drilled by now but obviously with current developments it has been probably put on the backburner.  It was intended to also drill two other lease sites which had historical working. 

It is best to go back and read all the reporta and then you will get a proper picture of the company independent of the media hype.  In the past I have spoken to Wayne McRae and have found him vey informative and he always goes out of his way for his shareholders.  Annual shareholders meetings in the past have been very poorly attended but I bet won't be in the future. I have found that by attending these meetings over the past few years that my faith in AUM was strenghened.


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## BSD (13 July 2006)

petal said:
			
		

> I have found that by attending these meetings over the past few years that my faith in AUM was strenghened.




Faith !

Would you pay $10 for a share ($1bn cap)??


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## sangshim (13 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> Faith !
> 
> Would you pay $10 for a share ($1bn cap)??




Already paid $8 per a share.... $10 is not much diff..


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## Judd (13 July 2006)

Learnt the hard way that unless a company makes a cash profit and looks like paying a dividend, it's not worth $1 let alone $10.  AUM for the traders, fools and men/women of steel IMHO.  Much too risky for me.


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## Prospector (13 July 2006)

So on that basis you would prefer to buy Telstra ahead of a company like say, Paladin? BDG? AWE?  On all of which I have made really nice profits but lost on Telstra2!


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## sangshim (13 July 2006)

Remember this news on 6/7?

------------------
On the trading front, several brokers said they believed the higher spikes in the price yesterday morning were due to a shorting of the stock that had gone terribly wrong for one investor. 

They believe someone on Monday shorted 900,000 AMI shares and options, obviously believing the stock's rise would be short-lived. 

The price ended at $2.93 on Monday but then closed on Tuesday at $5.25, opening yesterday at $7.15 - by which time the hapless speculator would have been in very deep water, having to get their hands on the stock for settlement today. He or she then would have needed to buy at whatever the price, ending up with a potential seven-figure haircut. 

-------------------

Wondering what he's doing now...


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## bvbfan (14 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> On the trading front, several brokers said they believed the higher spikes in the price yesterday morning were due to a shorting of the stock that had gone terribly wrong for one investor.
> 
> They believe someone on Monday shorted 900,000 AMI shares and options, obviously believing the stock's rise would be short-lived.




Maybe you should check this ASX Short sold list out

Doesn't seem to have AUM mentioned, I'd be wary of the sources!


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## DOC (14 July 2006)

hmm, i think things are getting a bit fishy.


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## ALFguy (14 July 2006)

Maybe further delays with the Ann: Great!!   

*ASX and miner at stand-off*
The Age. 14-Jul-06

KEY points of difference have emerged between Australian Mining Investments and an external expert the stock exchange appointed to vet the company's heavily promoted claim that its Rocklands copper discovery is a major find.

The failure to agree on a revised and updated report that satisfies stock exchange reporting requirements for mineral discoveries has been holding up the stock's return to trading.

Chairman Wayne McCrae said he thought the company had satisfied all concerns. But last night a company spokesman said both parties could not agree on several issues.

AUM ”” the company's stock exchange code ”” has not traded since July 5, when it briefly touched $10 a share and had a $1 billion market value. The bull run in the shares started on June 29, the day the company slapped an "inferred mineral resource" estimate of 59 million tonnes grading 2.04 per cent copper equivalent (it gave cobalt and gold credits a copper value) on to its Rocklands find.

Despite the bull run ”” which was led by day traders and had the added spice of allegations the stock had been short-sold ”” there has been interest in the speed with which the estimate was arrived at, as well as the reporting of the resource on a copper-equivalent basis.

The lengthy delay in the return to trade has prompted talk that some traders in the stock on July 5 have refused to settle their trades. As much as $5 million in trades is said to be involved.


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## aobed (14 July 2006)

Not happy jan


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## hillman (14 July 2006)

any chance wayne can get us trading today?? 


is anyone else really p----d too??? laughable now!!


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## ALFguy (14 July 2006)

hillman said:
			
		

> any chance wayne can get us trading today??
> 
> 
> is anyone else really p----d too??? laughable now!!




There's patience....and there's patience....!

It's really not up to Wayne hey - ASX just doing their job for a change.

Sorry, should say it's really down to the external geologists. Now if one of them had shares.....


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## ALFguy (14 July 2006)

There you have it.... Ann  next week....more waiting!
But at least some update.

*Australian Mining Investments Ltd (now CuDeco Ltd) confirms that it is continuing discussions
with ASX with respect to further drilling results and also clarification of the Company’s June 29
announcement concerning an inferred resource estimate at its Rocklands Group Project.
The Company is presently not able to advise the precise timing of reinstatement to quotation of its
securities, but believes that this is likely to be early next week.*


----------



## dcart3r (14 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> There you have it.... Ann  next week....more waiting!
> But at least some update.
> 
> *Australian Mining Investments Ltd (now CuDeco Ltd) confirms that it is continuing discussions
> ...




OK, here's my two cents, for what it's worth. Based on the comments and announcements from AMI and the ASX, I believe the announcement will be overall positive in nature. I expect the further drilling results to support claims made thus far and the clarification of June 29 report to be simply greater detail to substantiate the claims made in that announcement. 

I think the negative press and the suspension of trading will have a negative effect on the share price in the very short term - in the order of one to a few dollars of share price. Many holders are no doubt very nervous and may be willing to exit at any price. BUT, if the announcement lives up to the promise made by Wayne and Co. then I expect that will have a positive effect on the share price. Just how much, who knows, but talk of $10+ is a little hard to fathom at this stage. This is all very simplified of course, but with the amount of recent speculation, I think we should all try to cut the BS consipiracy theories and historical comparisons (because let's face it, they have absolutely nothing to do with the current situation) and act on the facts presented to us, which will hopefully be a lot clearer after the announcement. 

Personally, if I'm correct re: the nature of the announcement and the share price dips, I will be looking to buy in. Won't bet the house on it or anything, but I think this horse still has a ways to run. 

This is all just me personal, humble opinion so please don't crucify me but I would certainly like to hear from some other people.


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## hillman (14 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> There's patience....and there's patience....!
> 
> It's really not up to Wayne hey - ASX just doing their job for a change.
> 
> Sorry, should say it's really down to the external geologists. Now if one of them had shares.....



sorry Alfguy,
i really meant could the geeks get us back on board, i.e. trading not Uncle Wayne...but i was hoping he could perform a miracle!!!!!!


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## ALFguy (14 July 2006)

dcart3r said:
			
		

> OK, here's my two cents, for what it's worth. Based on the comments and announcements from AMI and the ASX, I believe the announcement will be overall positive in nature. I expect the further drilling results to support claims made thus far and the clarification of June 29 report to be simply greater detail to substantiate the claims made in that announcement.
> 
> I think the negative press and the suspension of trading will have a negative effect on the share price in the very short term - in the order of one to a few dollars of share price. Many holders are no doubt very nervous and may be willing to exit at any price. BUT, if the announcement lives up to the promise made by Wayne and Co. then I expect that will have a positive effect on the share price. Just how much, who knows, but talk of $10+ is a little hard to fathom at this stage. This is all very simplified of course, but with the amount of recent speculation, I think we should all try to cut the BS consipiracy theories and historical comparisons (because let's face it, they have absolutely nothing to do with the current situation) and act on the facts presented to us, which will hopefully be a lot clearer after the announcement.
> 
> ...




Ok dcart3r, I think I'm in agreement with most of what you've said, but here's my take on how things are going to pan out.

Firstly, because of the suspension and subsequent media coverage, I suspect most ppl are going to be VERY apprehensive about dipping their toes in.

Those holding are going to have tight stop-losses so any slight movement south on open will probably result in a long hard fall.

That said, any indication this is moving north and ppl are going to want to take that ride and will ultimately push the price way up. Again, any slight deviation from this and we're looking at a heavy fall.

Volatility is the word.

Also, in the previous weeks, I wonder how many ppl thought it was a little too expensive and didn't buy, only to watch it open much higher the following day? This is likely to be on everyones mind so there'll be some scrambling at end of day trading which could push it up dramatically.

All this talk of the companies worth and fundamentals isn't going to have any influence initially. The Ann is going to be ok, nothing special but likely an improvement on the first. Greed and fear are going to be what drives this up and down throughout the first days trading, not what we've been told.

I predict an initial fall but a final push north near end of day.

Going to be one hell of a mental day that's for sure,

All my opinions folks.... Not in any way advice


----------



## fit50 (14 July 2006)

Alan Kohler has a special report on Business Sunday at 8am.


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## lukentel (14 July 2006)

fit50 said:
			
		

> Alan Kohler has a special report on Business Sunday at 8am.




At least we'll be able to see what is going on (hopefully) if 9 goes unbiased (hopefully).

After todays hammer on the market any information would be interesting outside of media hype.  Maybe a good thing for some they didnt relist so quickly.  Whats the new ticker as well...

Maybe we should hire an independent geologist.  I'll kick in the first $100 towards his costs.  Anyone else in?  Just investors protecting their investment....

(forgive my sarcsam)


----------



## Captain G (14 July 2006)

I think Alan Kohler's program is actually on "Inside Business" - ABC on Sunday at 10.00am.
Cheers, Capt.


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## michael_selway (15 July 2006)

Captain G said:
			
		

> I think Alan Kohler's program is actually on "Inside Business" - ABC on Sunday at 10.00am.
> Cheers, Capt.




yep

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/a-new-poseidon-adventure/2006/07/14/1152637872659.htm



> *A new Poseidon adventure
> Email Print Normal font Large font July 15, 2006
> Page 1 of 3 | Single page
> The wild days of the late 1960s are being revisited, writes Jamie Freed, as small mining companies talk up their prospects.*
> ...



thx

MS


----------



## sangshim (15 July 2006)

Both news on the Australian and SMH sounds really bad.
Are we all doomed or what?


----------



## NettAssets (15 July 2006)

I haven't got a shareholding or other interest in the frenzy but I am still pretty annoyed with the amount of negativity and jounalistic licence that this Jamie Freer seems to inject into his stories.

Once again he brings up this comment


> But McCrae had already capitalised on the share price gains, converting $55,000 of options to a shareholding worth nearly $2 million on paper.




Now tell me if I am wrong BUT Mcrae's paper profit was exactly the same whether he converted these options or not. From what I understand he in fact sold a small number of shares to give him the money to convert the options. What this did was inject cash into the company because although the share price was soaring the company was not actually getting any cash gains out of it. I would have thought this was a very sound way of getting liquid into the company that was going to have to start spending a large amount on proving up the reserve and this without having much if any effect on McCrea's paper or actual nett worth.
I find JF's reporting a bit offensive and hope he wears a lot of egg from it although it does not affect me personally.
This might explain his peeve 







> McCrae has repeatedly declined to speak to the Herald and respond to his critics.



John


----------



## StockyBailx (15 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Both news on the Australian and SMH sounds really bad.
> Are we all doomed or what?



Looked into my tradingroom diary today to see that _AUM Aust Mining Invest had been suspended as of 6/7/06  P/E Ratio :-718.18 . I think you must be doomed -(wow).
I_ think now must be a good time to sell out. I wonder what it means?
Extraordinary value all the same, now we have to wait for Mr Copperfield to organize what happens to it all (where/hows it going), Is it real copper, did he drill on someone elses property or land claim. Certainly looks real?


----------



## stiger (16 July 2006)

Just finished watching Ch9 on cudeco thought it was pretty biased reporting and a bit of sour grapes chucked in by people that do not know what copper looks like.{My opinion only}.


----------



## parmigianich (16 July 2006)

Gruezi..
Early last Thursday afternoon I recommended SED on this thread (p. 16) and then on Friday, the very next day by pure fluke, AuSelect made a takeover bid for them which saw the share price leap almost 40%.  I don't suppose anyone bought on my advise?  I wouldn't have thought so. lol.  Though one member did send me a private message telling me that they did buy in however they bought after the takeover offer was announced @$0.295 which I wouldn't have suggested.  The AuSelect takeover offer values SED at about $0.30 per share and it is very unlikely in my opinion that there will be a second bidder.  Anyway I bought close to 250,000 SED shares around this time last month and have made a tidy little profit although it sort of pales into insignificance considering the very much unexpected profits I have made on AUM recently.  

Like I said I sold about 90% of my stake in AUM at $3 on the Monday prior to the trading halt and continue to hold more than 9,000 shares so I am still in the game but at the same time no matter what pans out I have been a very lucky girl.  Sure AUM traded as high as $10 not two days after I sold most of my shares at $3 but how could anyone not be happy with a return of more than 1700% in 4 months.


----------



## chansw (16 July 2006)

For those who don't watch Business Sunday on Channel 9, you can read the full transcript "Copper stopper" from Ninemsn web site

http://businesssunday.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=114295

==
"There have been a number of instances, in my mind, of the company not adhering to proper reporting standards."

The rise and rise of the share prices of copper explorer, Australian Mining Investments (AMI), has brought back memories of Australia's own Poseidon Adventure, but with the stock still suspended at week's end, there is much speculation about what's in store for AMI. The release of drill results has been delayed, and shareholders who have ridden the crest of the wave are anxiously awaiting the outcome. Helen McCombie discovers why AMI has suddenly become Australia's most talked-about mining company.

...
==


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## BSD (16 July 2006)

When Wayne makes the comment that there is no insto money in this - you can see from some of his comments why this is so. 


*McCOMBIE: So when would you expect to start mining something? 

McCRAE: Well, that's a good question. It depends where we go to from here, and so, how long's a piece of string and the answer is, twice as long as half of it. * 


and on Inside Business (transcript not available yet) he was saying they weren't releasing all the drilling data (spacing, cross sections etc) because he would be giving information away to his competitors (!!)

What a goose. 

Pity his poor shareholders in at bargain basement prices. 

They have a right to know whether they should be selling their shares in a market that has just created a massive windfall. 

But instead Wayne wants to keep it a secret and issue himself and his mates $60m worth of options. 

Instos are running other people's money and have obviously undertaken their duty of care in this instance.


----------



## stiger (16 July 2006)

Did you miss out?


----------



## NettAssets (16 July 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> Did you miss out?


----------



## Duckman#72 (16 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> When Wayne makes the comment that there is no insto money in this - you can see from some of his comments why this is so.
> 
> 
> *McCOMBIE: So when would you expect to start mining something?
> ...





Yes I thought his performance on Inside Business was unimpressive BSD. 

His argument about not releasing the drilling data due to unfair advantage to competitors was just cowboy stuff.   

I am the first to admit that I don't know a lot about mining but he said that "Xtrata surround us". Well....aren't Xtrata a huge operation? Wouldn't they be pouring ****loads of their own money into finding ridges and lines without waiting for Wayne's pissant operation to release data findings? 

Duckman


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## parmigianich (17 July 2006)

Gruezi
I have had private messages from a few people now thanking me for the recommendation. I really didn't expect that anyone would have bought on my advise at all, even less so given the little amount of time they had before the announcement of the takeover offer. 40% in 24 hours isn't too bad is it. lol.

As for how far this has to run.. well they do say that the first offer is rarely the last and a lot of shares were bought Friday @$0.29- $0.295c. Newcrest may just decide they would prefer to have a 100% stake in Cracow rather than a new partner and come out with a higher bid. Though I couldn't imagine a bidding war taking place. SED may even release some promising exploration results or just come straight out suggesting the company is potentially worth significantly more than the offer. Maybe AuSelect will be forced to add a sweetener to their initial offer or maybe they will drop out. Maybe there is another 10/ 15% to be had for SED shareholders or maybe the current offer will fail without any subsequent bids and SED shares will drop a few cents or maybe the offer will pass as is. Who knows.


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## stiger (17 July 2006)

Ann out plus reinstatement,will be a very interesting 2 hours.


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## utedog (17 July 2006)

The first orders are trickling in.  This is gonna be interesting. No buyers yet...  

BUYERS                      SELLERS 
Orders Quantity Price   Price Quantity Orders 
1 1,000 1.500             1 7.500 6,024 3 
                                2 11.500 5,100 1 
                                3 12.000 5,400 1 
                                4 15.000 500 1 
                                 5 20.000 200 1


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## mit (17 July 2006)

I don't hold any but good luck to all those who had bought in.

MIT


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## utedog (17 July 2006)

IAP is currently 4.70 (9:33am), i remember someone asked that question a few days ago.


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## powerkoala (17 July 2006)

Lots of seller with low prices
no buyers at the moment
settlement price $3 ???
wow this is really cheap or ..... ???


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## utedog (17 July 2006)

IAP down to $3.50 @ 9.46am


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## DOC (17 July 2006)

good news.
preliminary analysis of the announcement confirms what we already know, in regards to current and future anticipated data. There doesnt seem to be major players jumping in as yet, so it looks like small time speculators will be playing with the price at market open, this means nothing to me at this stage.

i think it could be a good buying opertunity. wait and see!  


as always, you should all seek your own professional advice before investing.

good luck.


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## ALFguy (17 July 2006)

utedog said:
			
		

> IAP down to $3.50 @ 9.46am




Thanks utedog, do appreciate the info!
Not looking brilliant eh.....but then, this was going to scare a few early on.


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## utedog (17 July 2006)

no worries ALF,

IAP slightly up again 3.63 @ 9.57am....


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## DOC (17 July 2006)

3.81 now at 10.00


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## ALFguy (17 July 2006)

Buyers pouring in now.... certainly a lot of interest.


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## Realist (17 July 2006)

It is dropping like a cheap hookers draws.    

Anyone here trying to sell?


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## sangshim (17 July 2006)

Nah~ I've bought a little more..


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## DOC (17 July 2006)

buying a little


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## ALFguy (17 July 2006)

Anything below 5 is a good buy imo, looks like it's floating around that mark.


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## Realist (17 July 2006)

Forgive my ignorance, but why are you guys buying??

Based on any Fundamentals or charts or what facts?

What do you expect the price to do in the next day, week and year?


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## DOC (17 July 2006)

purely speculation.


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## sangshim (17 July 2006)

It's doing better than I thought.

I thought sp may fall down to 1~2 doll range. but it opened at 4.05 and staying at 4.80 for 50 mins.


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## parmigianich (17 July 2006)

$5 is a big price to pay for speculation.  I think this stock will very likely trade below $2 at least at some point before years end.  I however continue to hold about 9,000 shares (bought in Feb) and will do so indefinitely I think though as I said previously I sold 90% of my shares at $3 Monday before trading halt.


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## DOC (17 July 2006)

not sure about AUM, but on a brighter note,
 have a look at IPM !! Incremental petroleum owns the currently producing selmo oil fields in turkey which have just release their reserves report!
this one has "PROVED plus PROBABLE" reserves of 12.04 MMstb.
 massive result! this could reach 2.50, as fund managers now must buy in.


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## crayfish (17 July 2006)

Can someone please post some details of the announcement? Once again, I'm unable to download pdfs from ASX.


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## RickG (17 July 2006)

From the Age



> Shares in Australian Mining Investments (AMI) plunged as much as 43 per cent this morning after the mining explorer cut its estimated ore base in its Queensland Rocklands copper project by more than half.
> 
> Shares were trading recently at $4.52 after resuming from a seven-day hiatus, down $2.59, or 36 per cent. Trading was halted after AMI was asked to disclose more details of its data used to calculate the size of its deposit.
> 
> ...


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## ALFguy (17 July 2006)

The Ann is pretty detailed but basically it's now an Inferred Resource of about 25mt with a target still of 59mt.

Highlights:

• Drill hole DORC-87 intersected 40m of high-grade copper mineralisation at 5.05% Cu from 44 to 84m, including 26m at 6.59% Cu from 48-74m.
• Drill hole DORC-93 intersected 81m of continuous copper-cobalt mineralisation at 1.38% Cu from 121-202m, including 28m at 3.36% Cu from 147-175m.
• Drill hole DORC-95 intersected 93m continuous copper-cobalt mineralisation at 1.39% Cu from 26-119m, including 20m at 2.2% Cu from 26-46m and 37m at 1.82% Cu from 50-87m.
• Drill hole DORC-96 intersected 101m of continuous copper-cobalt mineralisation at at 1.19% Cu from 85-186m, including 18m at 2.58% Cu from 85-103m and 8m at 4.95% Cu from 152-160m.
• DORC-106 drilled intersected 155m of visible continuous mineralisation from 65-220m.
• Mineralisation appears to widen with depth.
• Holes being drilled to down-hole depths greater than 200m are intersecting mineralised zones between 80m and 120m wide.
• Awaiting assay results for holes DORC-97 to DORC-106. All intersected 60-100m wide zones of visible sulphide mineralisation.
Note: Typically the true width is between 50-60% of the down hole intersection.


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## ALFguy (17 July 2006)

Down to 3.33 but could easily drop some more.

That said, I do think near end of day, this will spring up a little.
The initial 'freak out' is slowing down even with this big drop.
I expect buyers to come in late on to see a jump up when trading begins tomorrow.
Just my


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## parmigianich (17 July 2006)

$2.60 now

I said it would trade below $2 before years end (was almost going to say before months end) but it looks like it will trade below $2 before days end now.


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## Absolutely (17 July 2006)

I'd say it is going back to very close where it came from.


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## noirua (17 July 2006)

It looks as if the ASX were bombarded by information from AUM and may have rushed a decision to allow trading. Looking at the recent information there have to be doubts about what to believe. It is always upsetting if a share remains in suspension for months, this stock may have been one that should have been.


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## michael_selway (17 July 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Buy the rumour and sell the fact. It'll probably drop once everyone knows what the story is.




This is so true

Do u think its a FA or TA technique? or both? or neither?

thx

MS


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## crayfish (17 July 2006)

From http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=62031

_*CuDeco share price cut in half * 

Michael Vaughan
Monday, July 17, 2006

AFTER 10 days in limbo, CuDeco (the re-named Australian Mining Investments) has emerged from its trading halt and reclassified almost 60% of its 59 million tonne resource to an "exploration target", which has slashed close to 60% off the company's share price by midday.



Drilling at Australian Mining Investments' North Queensland copper projects 

CuDeco said the new, inferred 25Mt resource for the Las Minerale prospect at its Rocklands project incorporates mineralisation over a 600m strike length to a vertical depth of 250m.

The company has drilled over a strike length of 500m to a depth of 200m but has "extrapolated 50m along strike to the northwest and southeast and a further 50m in depth" in the new resource.

The superseded 59Mt resource estimate was based on an area extending over a strike of 950m to a depth of 375m, based on interpretation and extrapolation by CuDeco.

The extra zone was interpreted as an inferred resource by CuDeco for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the company said its experience in the Cloncurry region of northern Queensland has demonstrated shear hosted mineralisation, as evident at the Rocklands project, generally continues to significant depths greater than 600m.

In addition, bedrock drill samples and ground magnetics have indicated to CuDeco the magnetite alteration trend that hosts the Las Minerale resource continued for a further 900m.

Due to the chemical anomalies not being continuous, only half of the 900m continuation was included, pushing the interpreted strike length up by 450m to 950m.

As a result, CuDeco has reinterpreted part of the inferred resource into a new exploration target of 40-50Mt at Las Minerale, coming from depth and strike extensions outside of the current 25Mt inferred resource.

CuDeco maintains Las Minerale has a potential strike length of 3km and a likelihood of multiple parallel shear structures. The company still believes the three deposits at Rocklands – Rocklands, Double Oxide and Las Minerale – are blending into one large project.

MiningNews.net was unable to contact CuDeco chairman Wayne McCrae as he is currently onsite in Cloncurry.

The exploration target is said to have the same grade characteristics as the 25Mt Las Minerale resource which is 1.57% copper, 818 parts per million cobalt and 0.2 gram per tonne gold. Based on a copper price of $US3.15 per pound, a gold price of $500 per ounce and a cobalt price of $15 per tonne, this grade equates to a copper equivalent grade of 2.04%.

A 60,000m drill program at underway and CuDeco said it is in the process of negotiating the services of other rigs, including a diamond core rig to drill holes deeper than 500m at all three deposits.

An updated resource estimate for the Double Oxide zone is expected by early August.

For the record, in its mammoth 28-page release, the company provided the location and true width of all 14,500m of drilling conducted at Rocklands since November last year.

Shares in CuDeco were down $3.86 (54.7%) at $3.25 by midday._


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## Realist (17 July 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> This is so true
> 
> Do u think its a FA or TA technique? or both? or neither?
> 
> ...





A true FA does not buy on rumours, they buy on facts only.  

It is a TA theory for sure.


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## powerkoala (17 July 2006)

$3.50 now
looks like the buyer step in now


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## powerkoala (17 July 2006)

going for $4 mark


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## stockmaster (17 July 2006)

There was a strong rally in the whole market, and seems logic that there might be a rebound tomorrow, will AUM rebound as well, i.e a strong last trade?


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## ALFguy (17 July 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> There was a strong rally in the whole market, and seems logic that there might be a rebound tomorrow, will AUM rebound as well, i.e a strong last trade?




Wasn't quite a rebound for AUM but held ok near end of trading.
Got in just before close!
Now that we've had the expected rollercoaster, I'm hoping it'll stabilise tomorrow and we'll see a little more of the buyer confidence we saw before the halt.

I'm wondering if all future announcements from AUM are likely to be scrutinised in the same way?


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## stockmaster (17 July 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Wasn't quite a rebound for AUM but held ok near end of trading.
> Got in just before close!
> Now that we've had the expected rollercoaster, I'm hoping it'll stabilise tomorrow and we'll see a little more of the buyer confidence we saw before the halt.
> 
> I'm wondering if all future announcements from AUM are likely to be scrutinised in the same way?





I bought js be4 a close too, but not a lot because i was fear for a only drop tomorrow because it didn't rebound towards the end, though i believe the share is relatively undervalued, and has a strong potential to get over $6. An interesting day tomorrow!.


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## krisbarry (17 July 2006)

Almost halved the expected drill results, not good news for holders, hence the drop today.

I don't reckon AUM will go much higher, till more solid results come to hand, if at all.

Too much speculation and way over-hyped share price!

I do not hold.


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## sangshim (17 July 2006)

But at least that 25mil tones of Cu are somehow confirmed by the authority (ASX) unless AUM has cheated the drill result. As more drilling results coming out, the only way to go is north... I wish...


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## BSD (17 July 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> Did you miss out?




Did you get out?



			
				stockmaster said:
			
		

> though i believe the share is relatively undervalued




Undervalued relative to what?

Anybody prepared to prescribe a valuation to 'extrapolated resources'?


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## stiger (17 July 2006)

Refer post 242 11/7/06 .Ta for the enquiry.


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## sangshim (18 July 2006)

TIM~~~BER~~~~


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## sangshim (18 July 2006)

closed at 2.75....


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## BSD (18 July 2006)

Now that the ambulance chasers are bringing together the aggrieved to organise a 'post fall put-option', who will they sue?

a. AUM - they have about a million in the bank
b. Wayne - he has a few more millions than AUM
c. The Australian - plenty of dough and questions to answer
d. The $25 target broker - would assume he is set at cheap prices

Anyone prepared to give the ambo chasers a fat retainer to chase down their gambling losses?


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## sangshim (18 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> Now that the ambulance chasers are bringing together the aggrieved to organise a 'post fall put-option', who will they sue?
> 
> a. AUM - they have about a million in the bank
> b. Wayne - he has a few more millions than AUM
> ...




I'll sue myself.. or  probably the ASX? cause it took them over a month to raise the question?


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## jollyfrog (18 July 2006)

WELL ,WELL !! the sheep have been shorn!! its Posieden ALL OVER AGAIN !!
   OOOHH somebody should do something & help me cause I was STUPID! its called the Stock Market DUNDERHEADS!
  NEVER GAMBLE, NEVER PLAY WITH WHAT YOU CANT AFFORD TO LOSE!
 No Gain no Pain, POOR BASTARDS cant help feeling SORRY for them!
  Try CBH or BMX a little slower however at least their PRODUCING SOMETHING ! ( A QUOTE FROM MY DEAR OLD DAD) GOOD LUCK!


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## michael_selway (18 July 2006)

jollyfrog said:
			
		

> WELL ,WELL !! the sheep have been shorn!! its Posieden ALL OVER AGAIN !!
> OOOHH somebody should do something & help me cause I was STUPID! its called the Stock Market DUNDERHEADS!
> NEVER GAMBLE, NEVER PLAY WITH WHAT YOU CANT AFFORD TO LOSE!
> No Gain no Pain, POOR BASTARDS cant help feeling SORRY for them!
> Try CBH or BMX a little slower however at least their PRODUCING SOMETHING ! ( A QUOTE FROM MY DEAR OLD DAD) GOOD LUCK!




Aum will drop back to where around where it started just before the news, eventually and soon u tihnk? 

thx

MS


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## sangshim (18 July 2006)

drop back to where it started? oh my.... that'll really hurt..


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## chansw (18 July 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> Now that the ambulance chasers are bringing together the aggrieved to organise a 'post fall put-option', who will they sue?
> 
> a. AUM - they have about a million in the bank
> b. Wayne - he has a few more millions than AUM
> ...




For those who have not read the story, here it is

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/share-plunge-draws-lawyers/2006/07/17/1152988471791.html

*Share plunge draws lawyers*
Barry FitzGerald
July 18, 2006

CLASS action specialists are circling Wayne McCrae's CuDeco, formerly Australian Mining Investments, which has fallen with a thud after being forced to admit it seriously overstated the size of its Rocklands copper discovery in outback Queensland.

More than $340 million was wiped from the company's market value yesterday in a savage response by investors to the admission that instead of containing 59 million tonnes of copper mineralisation in the official inferred resource category, Rocklands - at this early stage of exploration - would be lucky to have 25 million tonnes of mineralisation.

Mr McCrae stopped well short of making an abject apology, saying only that he apologised for "any inconvenience and concern this situation has caused shareholders". There was some concern yesterday all right - the company's shares taking a battering.

The shares plunged $3.55, or 50 per cent, from $7.11 to $3.56, with $7.11 being the last sale price ahead of the ASX's suspension on July 5. The shares briefly touched $10 on that date, valuing the company at close to $1 billion - a level reached after Rocklands was heavily promoted as a major discovery by the company, its associates and sections of the print media.

The exchange suspended the stock while an independent expert it appointed vetted the company's announcements on Rocklands to ensure they complied with the strict listing requirements for the reporting of mineral discoveries. That process led to yesterday's dramatic downgrade.

Lawyers specialising in class actions are on the case, looking to mount a damages claim for as much as $30 million for investors who bought shares before trading was suspended.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission is also continuing to investigate trading in the company's shares before its suspension, including allegations of short-selling.

Slater & Gordon has been one of the first class action specialists to move on the company. It said shareholders who "invested in the wake of the company's positive announcements and are now looking at a loss are rightly concerned by recent events". "Whether they have a legal claim against the company is something we're strenuously investigating."

Slater & Gordon said the more than halving of the company's resource estimate for Rocklands was a "very significant development and calls into question the accuracy of the company's statements in recent weeks".

Slater & Gordon partner Lisa Nichols said companies had a duty not to mislead their shareholders and the public and also had a legal obligation to keep the market properly informed.

Shareholders in Australian Mining Investments last week approved a name change to CuDeco - the banner under which yesterday's revised resource statement on Rocklands was made. CuDeco admitted 34 million tonnes of its claimed 59 million tonne inferred resource at Rocklands should have been classified as "target" mineralisation.

An inferred mineral resource is meant to have reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction under the reporting code and as acknowledged by CuDeco, it is the category with which there is least confidence. A target resource is something less again and could otherwise be described as educated guesswork.

CuDeco said while it had some reasons for believing in the full 59 million tonnes inferred resource estimate, it now conceded that part of it - the now missing 34 million tonnes - should be classified as a "target" under the reporting code.


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## CanOz (18 July 2006)

What i would like to know is how many technical traders spotted the sharp rise and sold with profits in hand? True seasoned Techs would have taken profits right?


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## RickG (18 July 2006)

CanOz said:
			
		

> What i would like to know is how many technical traders spotted the sharp rise and sold with profits in hand? True seasoned Techs would have taken profits right?




Or at least taken partial profits off the table as the stock rose, and set new stop/losses along the way.


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## sangshim (18 July 2006)

I think a real tech traders wouldn't have jumped on AUM...


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## RickG (19 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> I think a real tech traders wouldn't have jumped on AUM...




LOL.. so true.. so very true.


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## stockmaster (19 July 2006)

"Australian Mining Investments (AUM.AU) slumps to A$2.39 then
recovers a tad, last down 10% at A$2.47 on lively trading of 2.9 million shares,
extending yesterday's 23% plunge as investors take stock again of valuations
after AUM slashed inferred resource at Rocklands project in Queensland by more
than 50%. AUM bounced from A$2.55 during Monday's downdraft after coming out of
9-day trading halt, so there appears to be some support there. AUM doing more
exploration work at project, which will provide further trading opportunities in
future as results issued. "

I believe AUM has been down for 3 days in a row, and likely to be undervalued becuase investors have been dumping share due to the release of the announcement. The existence of copper shall support the share price to rebound and gain back some loss, we might see some today, i believe the price is relatively low and a lot of bargaining left. Any thoughts?


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## stockmaster (19 July 2006)

It will very interesting to see how the price close today.


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## krisbarry (19 July 2006)

Very nasty, poor investors stuck in up at around the $10 level


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## stockmaster (19 July 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Very nasty, poor investors stuck in up at around the $10 level





Indeed, but most prob sold already at high price. 

The price ended quite stable today, does this indicate anything? I believe there is not much room to drop and likely to have a rebound sometime this week. Anyone noes how many more holes to drill before another ann?


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## Realist (19 July 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Very nasty, poor investors stuck in up at around the $10 level




They just lost 75% of their money!!

Yeeouch..


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## lesm (19 July 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Very nasty, poor investors stuck in up at around the $10 level




Investors or greedy speculators??


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## sangshim (19 July 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Very nasty, poor investors stuck in up at around the $10 level




OK!!! Thanks!!!


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## pussycat2005 (19 July 2006)

There were only two trades at $10 

about 20 trades at $9



how many people bought from $7.00 - $10.00 in the space of an hour before a halt was implemented -???? anyone want to guess  probably not many! 


most of the buying occurred the day before  the big spike between $3 and $5



i don't know why my previous post was deleted???


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## parmigianich (19 July 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> "Australian Mining Investments (AUM.AU) slumps to A$2.39 then
> recovers a tad, last down 10% at A$2.47 on lively trading of 2.9 million shares,
> extending yesterday's 23% plunge as investors take stock again of valuations
> after AUM slashed inferred resource at Rocklands project in Queensland by more
> ...





Sorry Stockmaster but AUM currently isn't even worth $1.50 per share.  I laughed when you wrote on Monday that the company was undervalued at a little less than $4 and that it could see $6 again.  Today it has closed at $2.28.  There will be no smart money appearing for this stock at all, definitely not above $2.  This stock will continue to gradually decline until such time that there is some positive news come out.  A little positive news and it will rally but rest assured that it will be short lived.  This company is a huge gamble.  In the long run it all depends on what news is coming out but I would be far less suprised to see this company at $0.60c in 18 months time than $6.  Any thoughts?


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## Knobby22 (19 July 2006)

The other problems are the lack of honesty of the directors and the very good possiblilty of a court case.


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## scsl (19 July 2006)

sangshim said:
			
		

> Remember this news on 6/7?
> 
> ------------------
> On the trading front, several brokers said they believed the higher spikes in the price yesterday morning were due to a shorting of the stock that had gone terribly wrong for one investor.
> ...



hmmm... imagine what he's thinking NOW. had he shorted the shares and options a several days later, he would be doing very well.

i wonder if he still had funds to trade AUM after having to cover the massive margin call.


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## stockmaster (19 July 2006)

parmigianich said:
			
		

> Sorry Stockmaster but AUM currently isn't even worth $1.50 per share.  I laughed when you wrote on Monday that the company was undervalued at a little less than $4 and that it could see $6 again.  Today it has closed at $2.28.  There will be no smart money appearing for this stock at all, definitely not above $2.  This stock will continue to gradually decline until such time that there is some positive news come out.  A little positive news and it will rally but rest assured that it will be short lived.  This company is a huge gamble.  In the long run it all depends on what news is coming out but I would be far less suprised to see this company at $0.60c in 18 months time than $6.  Any thoughts?





Thank you for the opinion you forwarded, your thoughts and trends might be correct in medium term, however i still believe there is a likely trend to have a rebound after the share price went down 3 days in a row.   Also what makes you so sure of the price?


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## saichuen (19 July 2006)

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> The other problems are the lack of honesty of the directors and the very good possiblilty of a court case.




i've to agree with you here and this to me is rather a more concerning issue than what the sp would be. it will definitely have a long term impact on the company.


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## cuttlefish (19 July 2006)

So why do you claim the directors have not behaved in an honest manner - which aspect of their behaviour leads to this conclusion?


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## BSD (19 July 2006)

There is a very fine line between dishonesty, ineptitude, negligence and ignorance. 

Don't ask me where 'extrapolated resources' fit in


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## cuttlefish (19 July 2006)

I don't know, I reckon dishonesty is very different to the other three. 

Dishonesty implies an intent, thus making it a very harsh allegation to make against an individual.

If someone makes a mistake, that doesn't automatically make them dishonest. If someone is amateurish or incompetent that doesn't mean they are dishonest either.  


AUM's subsequent statement about their drilling results, even after intense scrutiny by the ASX and an independant geologist, didn't really vary that greatly from the original announcement.


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## parmigianich (19 July 2006)

They had excellent results from four drill holes and instead of simply reporting the facts in a professional manner I think they got a bit excited and did just a little day dreaming out loud.  I don't think anyone involved with the company intentionally set out to mislead the market at all.  The media are as much to blame as anyone.  And who is the $25 broker, does he exist?  

People that bought in at $5, $6, $7 or $10 and lost should have no recourse against the company in my opinion.  They got greedy gambling and lost.  Unless of course they were investing for the long term (as if. lol) in which case they could still possibly come out in front on the extremely off chance that it does turn out that AUM have struck the jackpot and stumbled on the next Escondida.


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## cuttlefish (19 July 2006)

parmigianich said:
			
		

> The media are as much to blame as anyone.  And who is the $25 broker, does he exist?




Yeah I agree. Its far more likely that the people that paid the higher prices for shares did so based on the newspaper reports saying the shares were worth $25, than based on their own individual detailed analysis of the drilling report.


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## michael_selway (19 July 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> Yeah I agree. Its far more likely that the people that paid the higher prices for shares did so based on the newspaper reports saying the shares were worth $25, than based on their own individual detailed analysis of the drilling report.




http://businesssunday.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=114295

mms://BusinessSunday.netshow.ninemsn.com.au/businesssunday/2006/CopperStopper.wmv

thx

MS


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## cuttlefish (19 July 2006)

MS - yes I've seen that report - not sure what point you're making in posting it though?  Except that its yet another media report.


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## pharaoh (20 July 2006)

I reckon they are sitting on what wm claimed. 
But asic and asx made him ann only what they could "prove"

wm has been around for years, seems to be v confident, and know his stuff.
Remember, a lot was inferred, so means it could be there, but needs further drilling to prove this. 

Could be wrong, but that's my hunch
Thoughts?


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## Joe Blow (20 July 2006)

As of 20/7/06, Australian Mining Investments (AUM) has changed its name and its ASX code to Cudeco Limited (CDU). As such a new thread has been created and the discussion has been moved there: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3971

This thread will now be closed.


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