# My 99 trades



## skc (19 June 2009)

Looking back at my record I have done around 99 trades since I started share trading about 4 months ago. Thought I'd share my record and put down in words how I think things went. Appreciate any feedback from the experienced.

Starting capital = $15000
Total trades = 99
Long trades = 80
Short trades = 19
Winning trades = 48 (48.5%)
Losing trades = 51 (51.5%)
Average win = $171
Average loss = -$126
Average win / average loss = 1.36
Ending capital = $16794 (+12%)
Total commission paid = $1342 (~9% of capital)


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## skc (19 June 2009)

Here's my thoughts on the results.

*Positives*
- Risk is within control, with risk per trade within ~1-2% of captial. There were a couple of slippage in there but nothing major.
- The win ratio at 48% is acceptable

*Negatives*
- Overall results not flash. The market probably moved 30% from it's bottom, so a really good trader should obviously be able to beat the market, while an average trade should be able to get half of that range.
- The avg win / avg loss was too low at 1.36

*Areas for improvement*
- On hindsight some stops for the more volatile stocks were not aggressive enough for the current environment. This would have avoided giving back heaps of open profit.
- Probably took profit on a few trades that would have changed the results dramatically. Need to exercise patience. (Need to review my records and see how many take profit trades did I do)
- Increase capital size will obviously reduce commission drag - but not a priority at the moment.

Overall I am not unhappy about the results, and stop management is probably one of the hardest thing to master in trading. Once again, any comments appreciated from the experienced.


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## Aussiest (19 June 2009)

Skc, do you sit in front of the screen all day? Perhaps you could initiate your stops manually? Eg, if market depth starts looking ugly, exit immediately. Re-enter if things clear up?


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## skc (19 June 2009)

Aussiest said:


> Skc, do you sit in front of the screen all day? Perhaps you could initiate your stops manually? Eg, if market depth starts looking ugly, exit immediately. Re-enter if things clear up?




I am in front of the screen all day, but not actually watching the stock constantly. There are a few other types of trading and work I do so short term stock trading is my expansion area.

Displaying the depth of all my open positions on the screen would also be difficult from a screen space point of view. Not to mention that I have to remember the stop location of every position which will stretch my brain's capability too much


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## Nero64 (19 June 2009)

> Ending capital = $16794 (+12%)
> Total commission paid = $1342 (~9% of capital)




That's pretty good for 4 months. 

But is your ending captial before or after the commissions. 

Who is your Broker? Do you use CFDs?

I assume you have entry and exit criteria.


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## Knobby22 (19 June 2009)

I actually think that's pretty crap for 4 months.

I'm only an investor because I haven't got time for short term trades and I achieved better than that (over 20%). The market has been quite strong and a full time trader should have acheived at least 30% in my opinion. 

It appears to me that the good trades have not been allowed to run.


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## beerwm (19 June 2009)

what were the conditions for the 99 trades.

-EOD/intraday? - avg. trade length.
-stops/ take profits
-price/ reversals/ breakouts

might wanna increase ur risk too.

with that win/loss ratio -

you have a 0.00305%  of 15 straight losses - or a drawdown of 15% [at 1% risk/trade] - assuming you lose your entire 1%.
-although i understand your caution with a new system.

thanks for sharing.


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## saiter (19 June 2009)

skc said:


> Looking back at my record I have done around 99 trades since I started share trading about 4 months ago. Thought I'd share my record and put down in words how I think things went. Appreciate any feedback from the experienced.
> 
> Starting capital = $15000
> Total trades = 99
> ...




I think that you've done pretty well considering that you only entered shares 4 months ago.
At least now:

You've finished with a larger capital base
You haven't blown your account
You know what your strengths and weaknesses are

Keep up the hard work, I'm sure it'll pay off.


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## skc (19 June 2009)

Nero64 said:


> That's pretty good for 4 months.
> 
> But is your ending captial before or after the commissions.
> 
> ...




The P/L are after commission. For what it's worth, the P/L before commission was $3136, or 20.1%. So if I was to double my capital and double my risk to 2%, the commission probably wouldn't increase that much and my return would look a bit prettier (up to 35%). It was good to know that is up my sleeve when I decide to increase my capital deployed.

IB is my broker.



Knobby22 said:


> I actually think that's pretty crap for 4 months.
> 
> I'm only an investor because I haven't got time for short term trades and I achieved better than that (over 20%). The market has been quite strong and a full time trader should have acheived at least 30% in my opinion.
> 
> It appears to me that the good trades have not been allowed to run.




As I said, results are not flash. Looking back I took partial profits on about 10 trades (with the rest trailed to stop), and took full profits with may be 3 trades. Also had about 5 scratched trades when they weren't moving. 

I think my problem was not taking profit but stop placement - but that has the same effect as not allowing trades to run.



beerwm said:


> what were the conditions for the 99 trades.
> 
> -EOD/intraday? - avg. trade length.
> -stops/ take profits
> ...




The average holding time was ~10 days. Most trades were either breakout or retracement swing trades. There were a few fundamental trades  and even a few quick punts at the beginning.


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## johnnyg (19 June 2009)

skc said:


> *Negatives*
> - Overall results not flash. The market probably moved 30% from it's bottom, so a really good trader should obviously be able to beat the market, while an average trade should be able to get half of that range.




Ive often thought about this (in regards to my own paper trading results).

Fair call to say that the market has risen 30% from its bottom, but how much of your capital would you of needed to risk to return that %?

For yourself to return 12% only risking 1-2% per trade I think is a fair result. 

What was the maximum amount of your account you had invested @ one time (max system draw down?)

For you to log 99 trades, be profitable after 4 months, and have an average annual return of 30-40% is really good work. 

Anyone who is of a different opinion I believe have a long way to go to fully understanding trading.

Cheers.


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## kam75 (19 June 2009)

Some thoughts looking over your stats.

Try to get your win/loss ratio up and cap your losses to smaller amount.

Have a look at what your average time is in your winning trades vs your losing ones.  You may want to introduce a time-stop into your system where if a trade does not work out in the time planned, you get out with a small loss.

How you managing your money in terms of your bet size?  This is very important. You should have rules for increasing your bet size as your portfolio grows, and decreasing during drawdowns.


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## kam75 (19 June 2009)

I also think that's too much damn commision you paying.  But it's a hell of a lot of trades too.  Should negotiate better rates for trading so much.  It's eating way into your profits.


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## Aussiest (19 June 2009)

Knobby22 said:


> I actually think that's pretty crap for 4 months.




Well, he was probably trading small caps. What were you trading if you don't mind me asking SKC? I think that small caps would move slower than medium or large caps?


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## Mr J (19 June 2009)

Knobby22 said:


> I actually think that's pretty crap for 4 months.
> 
> I'm only an investor because I haven't got time for short term trades and I achieved better than that (over 20%). The market has been quite strong and a full time trader should have acheived at least 30% in my opinion.
> 
> It appears to me that the good trades have not been allowed to run.




It's not a sensible comparison. A strong movement such as the one we've had is the hardest situation for a trader to outperform the market. It's in all other conditions - slow rise, fall, sideways - that traders will outperform investors. I wouldn't be concerned about not outperforming the market in this case.


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## So_Cynical (19 June 2009)

99 trades over the last 4 months for a 12% profit is pretty surprising...its a lot of trades/work 
for such a small result, when picking 12 stocks out off a hat and holding, would of prob given a 
much better return.

Still im sure u will do better over the next 4 months.


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## Trembling Hand (20 June 2009)

Mr J said:


> *It's not a sensible comparison. A strong movement such as the one we've had is the hardest situation for a trader to outperform the market*. It's in all other conditions - slow rise, fall, sideways - that traders will outperform investors. I wouldn't be concerned about not outperforming the market in this case.







So_Cynical said:


> 99 trades over the last 4 months for a 12% profit is pretty surprising...its a lot of trades/work
> for such a small result, when picking 12 stocks out of a hat and holding, would of prob given a much better return.




just LOL!!

Anyone who does 99 trades and still profitable would be in a select group here. Hindsight comparison to the strongest move in years is worthless. what about picking 12 stocks today and holding. Not much working in that but will there be any profit ??


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## KurwaJegoMac (20 June 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Ive often thought about this (in regards to my own paper trading results).
> 
> Fair call to say that the market has risen 30% from its bottom, but how much of your capital would you of needed to risk to return that %?
> 
> ...




I agree with Johnnyq. I commend you on sticking to your risk management guidelines and I congratulate you on what I think is a great result for your first four months of trading and I urge you to ignore the people claiming your results are bad -arguing that you did poorly because the market went up 30% and your capital didn't, is a stupid argument. 

This is your first time trading and your objectives are to develop a system and risk management framework that will yield you positive returns. Being able to outperform the market will require tweaking of your system (such as lowering commissions, letting winners run, etc.) as well as experience. I cannot stress this enough - it's easy for a person to say 'the market rallied 30% you should have achieved the same result" when they've had a lot more experience than you - but if you look back on this forum you'll see a lot of people got caught with their pants down and for those that did jump in, most felt that the rally would not be sustained. Many of these people have been trading for a lot longer than you and they did not capitalise fully on the rally.

So keep at it and keep tweaking your system until it yields the results you want. With time, experience and hard work it'll pay off in the end.

Congratulations on your result, well done!


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## skc (20 June 2009)

Just adding a bit of information to my trading...

With 99 trades and an average holding period of 10 days (calender days) over 4 months (120 days), it means roughly I held 8-9 positions at any one time on average. In truth, however, I probably held 4-5 positions in the first 2 months and 12-15 positions in the last 2.



johnnyg said:


> Ive often thought about this (in regards to my own paper trading results).
> 
> Fair call to say that the market has risen 30% from its bottom, but how much of your capital would you of needed to risk to return that %?
> 
> ...




I can't remember what the maximum amount I had invested at any one time  as I have various bits of money in my IB doing other different things. It was definitely larger than the notional $15K however. But I think the maximum at risk was probably ~$2K. That is, if all the stop loss were hit at the same time, my equity would be down by $2K.

Max drawdown based on equity in closed position was around $800 (just eyeball the equity curve). Max "drawdown" on open profit was way higher than that...



kam75 said:


> I also think that's too much damn commision you paying.  But it's a hell of a lot of trades too.  Should negotiate better rates for trading so much.  It's eating way into your profits.




I think the commission I paid was reasonable. 99 trades, $1342 commission paid, that's less than $7 each way. IB charges $6 but I had a few partial exits etc. The commission drag is purely a result of small position size rather than the actual fee imo. Like I said, commission doesn't worry me at present as I know it's effect will decrease once I increase my capital.

I stand corrected however and if anyone has successfully negotiated cheaper commission trading similar position size then let us know!



Aussiest said:


> Well, he was probably trading small caps. What were you trading if you don't mind me asking SKC? I think that small caps would move slower than medium or large caps?




Aussiest, are you sure small caps move slower!? Check out any coal or iron ore shares... Anyway, I traded shares of all sizes - biggest ones like ORG, OSH, BXB, CSL to mid size like BOQ, NHC, FLX to juniors like WDS, NOD, ETC.


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## Knobby22 (21 June 2009)

I didn't realise they were your first ever 99 trades, skc.
Well done. Just remember the song - One big win, pays for them all.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM


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## MRC & Co (21 June 2009)

I think your doing well SKC, good work.  First 99 trades and in the green after costs, must say something about your future potential!  

As you say, once you increase position size, it will be even better.


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## tech/a (21 June 2009)

Needs some work.


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## skc (22 June 2009)

tech/a said:


> Needs some work.




Interesting how a chart reader will draw channels on any chart...The change in slow of the equity occured at around 2/3 of the way through. 

First 66 trades - 29 wins, 36 losses (44%),avg win/avg loss = 1.32, net P/L = $290, avg holding period 6.6 days
Last 33 trades - 19 wins, 15 losses (57%), avg win/avg loss = 1.37, net P/L = $1503, avg holding period 12.6 days

Probably hard to read too much into this as market conditions were quite different in the first 66 trades (Feb to early May, which was basically a deep V). 

I did move stops to breakeven (and move them up) more aggressively in the last 33 trades, but mostly because the market has risen too high too fast. From what I've read in such circumstances many traders will tighten stops and lock in profits / reduce risk. On hindsight that worked reasonably given that most of the trades would have been treading water / stopped at a loss had the stops not been moved up. 

The other reason I moved stops up aggressively was due to the way I manage my total holding. As mentioned earlier I limit my total risk (i.e. all stops being hit at once) to ~$2K. So moving stops to B/E and profit positions allowed me to increase number of holdings, which seemed wise given the strength of the market. 

I do however, fully recognise letting profit run being the most difficult traits in trading.


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## skc (22 June 2009)

Knobby22 said:


> I didn't realise they were your first ever 99 trades, skc.
> Well done. Just remember the song - One big win, pays for them all.
> 
> www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM




I've reorganised the P/L chart here. It's interesting that...

Best trade = 42% of total profit
Top 3 = 93%
Top 5 = 138%

Would anyone else care to post a similar chart / analysis? I think that will encourage all to "let the profit run".

P.S. Thanks for the video link Knobby - not the biggest fan of country but now has this bloody tune in my head.


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## Tradesurfer (23 June 2009)

I had started a previous thread on asking the question about a better way to judge trading success or behaviors for good trading playing off the golf handicap them. you can check that out.

But one thing I wanted to convey is that I don't believe its always healthy to try to compare to an index such as the S/P.

The reason why I say that is if for the period you were trading a single index was up 20%. Comparing your trading where hopefully you are spreading risk across different areas that aren't all 100% correlated may make your results look worse and incent behaviors that aren't productive long term. 

That Index that was up 20%- would you have gone all into that one vehicle and would you have bought at the absolute bottom? 

This is why I don't like that comparison and I don't particularly like simply using raw % up or down as a trader who has 100k and puts only 50k into positions and posts a 50% gain would see a portfolio gain of 25% and thus not properly rewarding the result. 

One other point, if the market lost 40% as it had at one point and you only lost 10%- comparing your trading to the market one might say they were successfull. But really, with a trend that powerful a trader should have been able to ride the short side.

I have to compliment you though on tracking your trading from the beginning. It is crucial to keep score and to evaluate whether strategies are yielding results that you want or better yielding smaller losses and larger winners.



best of luck


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## johnnyg (24 June 2009)

skc, your using IB and buying the shares outright correct? Any particular reason why instead of going with DMA CFD's? I guess your going to save on interest on open positions, however if your trading 4+ positions @ once it'd leave you stuck without any more capital if another good setup came along?


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## skc (24 June 2009)

johnnyg said:


> skc, your using IB and buying the shares outright correct? Any particular reason why instead of going with DMA CFD's? I guess your going to save on interest on open positions, however if your trading 4+ positions @ once it'd leave you stuck without any more capital if another good setup came along?




$15K is only "notional" capital for the purpose of calculating risk as I dip my toes in stock trading. So I am not really "capital constrained" per se.

I won't list the many advantages of IB over DMA CFD here, although I do use an IG account for shorting ASX stocks.


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## Nero64 (24 June 2009)

> I won't list the many advantages of IB over DMA CFD here, although I do use an IG account for shorting ASX stocks.




Amen to that!

With IG do you use GSL or do you risk the gaps?


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## skc (24 June 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Amen to that!
> 
> With IG do you use GSL or do you risk the gaps?




Rarely use GSL. There are gaps everyday for every stock. Plus my stocks are not normally that tight...

An old thread about GSL

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12177&highlight=guaranteed


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## beerwm (25 June 2009)

what sort of advantages; the way i see it

DMA CFDs-

0.08-0.1% commission
shortable stocks
[slightly limited range]
interest- gain/loss on leveraged positions.

IB-

0.08% commission


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## skc (25 June 2009)

beerwm said:


> what sort of advantages; the way i see it
> 
> DMA CFDs-
> 
> ...




Advantage of IB, aside from saving interest on long positions and lower minimum commission ($6), the biggest thing for me is you actual have real ownership of shares and able to participate in rights and SPP etc. Most CFD providers will calculate some notional cash flow to represent the true economic effect of holding real shares. But I hate to get into an argument with them over such calcuations.

This is getting off topic though... 

Now, would anyone else care to share their P/L histogram chart? If you don't want to show your actual P/L amount you can always normalise the numbers (e.g. average P/L = 1, and scale everything base on that). 

So seasoned traders, be generous and share


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## peter2 (25 June 2009)

I'll share my ASX stock trades (unleveraged) results for the past year. 
The first 7 trades were during July08 - Feb09 while the last 53 trades were during Mar09 - Jun09. 
[ 60T with 30W (+1.60R) and 30L (-0.58R); Exp = 0.51, profit factor = 2.21 ]

After a review I have graded my performance as C+ and I know what I have to do to improve next year.


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## skc (25 June 2009)

peter2 said:


> I'll share my ASX stock trades (unleveraged) results for the past year.
> The first 7 trades were during July08 - Feb09 while the last 53 trades were during Mar09 - Jun09.
> [ 60T with 30W (+1.60R) and 30L (-0.58R); Exp = 0.51, profit factor = 2.21 ]
> 
> After a review I have graded my performance as C+ and I know what I have to do to improve next year.




Nice one Peter and thanks for sharing. 

Interesting to note that your best trade at 10R was about 1/3 of all profits, and your next 3 best trades at ~3.5R would be another 1/3.

It appears that the 80/20 rule definitely applies


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## beamstas (25 June 2009)

I didn't think IB allowed you to participate in SPP
Learn something new every day


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## skc (25 June 2009)

beamstas said:


> I didn't think IB allowed you to participate in SPP
> Learn something new every day




Yes they do (I hope). I recently instructed them to do so and they replied that they will be carrying out my instructions. Hopefully that means I will actually receive my shares on the issue date.

In fact it will be quite crazy if they don't and you can probably build some arbitrage strategy around that...


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## skyQuake (25 June 2009)

skc said:


> Yes they do (I hope). I recently instructed them to do so and they replied that they will be carrying out my instructions. Hopefully that means I will actually receive my shares on the issue date.
> 
> In fact it will be quite crazy if they don't and you can probably build some arbitrage strategy around that...




Confirmed with IB that you can. You give IB instructions, and they do it (using the money from ur account). No paperwork, just smoke and mirrors; no forms to fill


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## So_Cynical (27 June 2009)

skc...assuming its easy for u to do, im interested to know how many of the losing trades u exited, came good later...could u whip up a chart or something?


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## beamstas (27 June 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> skc...assuming its easy for u to do, im interested to know how many of the losing trades u exited, came good later...could u whip up a chart or something?




What good would that do?
Even if he showed that it wouldn't be realistic, as future trades couldn't of happened because he would have had his capital tied up in losing trades.


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## So_Cynical (28 June 2009)

beamstas said:


> What good would that do?
> 
> Even if he showed that, it wouldn't be realistic, as future trades couldn't of happened
> because he would have had his capital tied up in losing trades.




I figure it would lead to an interesting discussion...also figuring that skc is only entering any
one stock with a small amount of total capital, so would always have something to trade with.


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## skc (29 June 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> skc...assuming its easy for u to do, im interested to know how many of the losing trades u exited, came good later...could u whip up a chart or something?




I don't believe this exercise will prove anything. Here are the data anyway, assuming I held on to all the trades I've ever made.

Winners 
Closed trade - 48 with P/L = $8220
P/L based on prices today = $8504
Difference = $284

Losers
Closed trades - 51 with P/L = -$6427
P/L based on prices today = -$11600
Difference = -$5173

What this means is that, if I had held on to all my losers, I would be way worse off. Had I held on to all my winners, I would be slightly better off.

This exercise however is not entirely accurate as there are also several stocks which I re-entered, or had both long and short trades.

To me it is quite clear that I need bigger winners, with a avg win / avg loss ratio of only 1.36. The area for improvement does not seem to lie in holding onto the losers. Like to hear your reaction though...


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## Mr J (29 June 2009)

Skc, while it's useful to go back and anaylse your work, don't put too much significance on 99 trades. A bit of extreme shorterm variance either way and your stats would change significantly.


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## skc (29 June 2009)

Mr J said:


> Skc, while it's useful to go back and anaylse your work, don't put too much significance on 99 trades. A bit of extreme shorterm variance either way and your stats would change significantly.




I understand. A single 5R trade would have turned the whole equation.

It was a pretty good exercise in the end to pinpoint where the issues are. Again like I said..

Profit = winners - losers - cost.

The area for improvement is in winners and to a lessor extent, cost (on a relative basis).


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## beamstas (29 June 2009)

skc said:


> I understand. A single 5R trade would have turned the whole equation.
> 
> It was a pretty good exercise in the end to pinpoint where the issues are. Again like I said..
> 
> ...




I like this
Losers should all be similar, 1R, or less (for example after a pattern failure you might tighten the stop to .5R)

This leaves the only real variables as how much you win and how much it costs to trade.
If you have enough capital then cost to trade is also not a variable.


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## Mr J (29 June 2009)

I suppose what I mean to say is that it's useful to analyse your methods and philosophy rather than focus on results. The results may identify weaknesses in your methodology, but any tweaks should be made to the methodology rather than the results.

I played online poker seriously for over a year, and asking for feedback was extremely common. Some people would post stats over a particular sample, but unless there was something quite off, the sample was meaningless. A far better way to judge play was to post commentary on hand histories. I believe the same would be true for traders, although traders seem to be more secretive over their methods than poker players.


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## So_Cynical (29 June 2009)

skc said:


> To me it is quite clear that I need bigger winners, with a avg win / avg loss ratio of only 1.36. The area for improvement does not seem to lie in holding onto the losers. Like to hear your reaction though...




Thanks for posting those results...i really though the outcome would be alot more positive than it turned out to be...ive noticed u and i look at alot of the same stocks so just figured the results would be similar.


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## johnnyg (30 June 2009)

Only pretty new to putting results into charts and I haven't quite worked out how to get an Equity Curve plotted as of yet, but here is my 20 trades to date (only paper trading still).

As noted on the chart 3 of my losses (1R or $200) are all very similar. I was  trying to pick the top of 3 different stocks against a strong trend. Yes they may of showed signs that prices may react however I was way to aggressive in my approach.  The 3 of those trades are also my only shorts in the 20 trades.

Plenty more to learn.


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## johnnyg (30 June 2009)

Hope I'm not getting off track in your thread skc, but I thought while I'm at it I'd put up 2 other charts, First is my CFD trading from 6-8 months ago when I thought it was all to easy and wasn't using any Risk Management. Ended up blowing up a $700 account.

2nd is my first list of trades, and what I'd more so call Investing with dabbling in Day trading, where I'd head over to Hotc0pper and look for the latest tip. 

Hopefully there is some improvement from these 2 compared to my first Chart.


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## johnnyg (30 June 2009)

Cant edit my original post.


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## skc (6 July 2009)

Johnnyg, thanks for sharing. It's a bit hard to judge based on so few trades, but congrats on putting in some risk control, and good luck with further trading.


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## johnnyg (15 July 2009)

Cheers skc, I must of missed this post before.

I have been a little lazy organizing setups, that's a reasonable problem of mine so Ive been trying hard to improve and focus more. Ill re-assess after 50 trades.

How have you been going lately?


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## johnnyg (16 July 2009)

Here's another set of results from a mechanical trading system I'm toying around with.

Dates - 12/5/09 - 5/6/09 (all closed on the 5th)
Starting Capital - $20000
Ending Capital - $32566
Risk per Trade - $200
# of trades - 110

Need to start logging trades again and see how it performs for another 4 weeks.


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## sleepy (17 July 2009)

johnnyg 

Nice set of numbers (ie., R-multiples) 

.. are they actual trades taken or this a hypothetical system/account?
... and have you included commission costs (assuming $10 per ASX CFD trade youd be looking at 110 * 20 = $2200 minimum)


sleepy


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## johnnyg (17 July 2009)

Just paper trading at the moment sleepy. It definitely needs more work and refinement as the 20% draw down at the start wouldn't be the easiest to trade I don't think.

I didn't take into account commissions so you could take off that amount from the end result.


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## johnnyg (20 October 2009)

Hello again skc, approaching 50 trades myself and will start up a new thread once I reach that # for comments and improvement. 

Just curious on your approach you took with your review, and steps you put in place after it, and whether they were beneficial or not?

For mine my biggest thing is to work out a good trailing stop, one that works well most of the time, I perhaps might even look at having 2 different stop methods, depending on the type of pattern I'm trading and how long it took for form ect so that once I enter the trade I know exactly what i want to do. 

I might even look into separating each pattern that I traded in groups to see if some work better then others, others might have a lower expectancy therefore only trade 1/2 parcels until the analysis is confirmed ect.

I want to be careful though not to curve fit results as the markets had a pretty good run in the last 6 months.


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## skc (20 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Hello again skc, approaching 50 trades myself and will start up a new thread once I reach that # for comments and improvement.
> 
> Just curious on your approach you took with your review, and steps you put in place after it, and whether they were beneficial or not?
> 
> ...




It's been better, but I don't think I've nailed the stop plcement yet either. In fact, my stops are probably placed at the worse place for this market on hindsight. Not tight enough to lock all the profits, but also not wide enough to handle the inevitable retracement within the wider bull run.

I will provide some stats once I close another 99 trades (currently at 86).


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## sammy84 (20 October 2009)

skc said:


> It's been better, but I don't think I've nailed the stop plcement yet either. In fact, my stops are probably placed at the worse place for this market on hindsight. *Not tight enough to lock all the profits, but also not wide enough to handle the inevitable retracement within the wider bull run.*
> 
> I will provide some stats once I close another 99 trades (currently at 86).




Seems a bit contradictory :


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## Mr J (20 October 2009)

skc said:


> It's been better, but I don't think I've nailed the stop plcement yet either. In fact, my stops are probably placed at the worse place for this market on hindsight. Not tight enough to lock all the profits, but also not wide enough to handle the inevitable retracement within the wider bull run.
> 
> I will provide some stats once I close another 99 trades (currently at 86).




Maybe it's a question of strategy rather than just stop placement? Stops should allow you to meet your ballpark target if the trade goes well. Do you find you're getting cut short too early, or are aiming for smaller profits but keeping stops loose to try and luck onto larger moves?


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## joslad (21 October 2009)

Good thread skc - I've only just noticed it today.  

Takes a bit of courage to put up your results knowing that some of the knockers will rip into your results - but never posting up their own results to be critique'd.

I thought your results posted in June were good and probably above average, especially as you are new to trading.  

Most of the profit comes from a small number of large winning trades and most of the losses from a small number of bad losing trades.  The majority of trades are small gainers and losers that tend to cancel each other out.  That is certainly the case with my results.

Be interested to see how things have been going over the past few months when you hit 99 trades...


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## johnnyg (21 October 2009)

Cheers skc, will be interesting to see. 

Regards John.


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## conankun (21 October 2009)

Hey skc,

Quick question, how do you get the equity and P/L chart? Did you manually enter your daily end-of-day position($) in Ms Excel to create the graph or did it come from your broker or you have certain software to do it?

Planning to create one for myself when I got the time


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## skc (21 October 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Seems a bit contradictory :






Mr J said:


> Maybe it's a question of strategy rather than just stop placement? Stops should allow you to meet your ballpark target if the trade goes well. Do you find you're getting cut short too early, or are aiming for smaller profits but keeping stops loose to try and luck onto larger moves?




Precisely. It's contradictory and therefore a strategy issue. Say entry is $1 and the share goes from $1 up to $1.3, back down $1.1 and then back up to $1.5. There are 2 ways to capture the movement.

1. Tight trailing stops, say 5c for argument sake. So entry at $1, stopped out at $1.25 (25c). 

2. Wider stop that trails slower, say move stop to $1.1 only after that pivot low has formed. But it means foregoing the 25c profit one could have had. The paper profit is now 50c, but the locked in profit is still only 10c.

On the other hand, a stop somewhere in between, say a 15c trailing stop would result in just 15c profit, and that is what I meant by it being not tight enough or wide enough. 

On hindsight there were 2 good reasons why I trail a semi-tight stop up quite quickly.

1. Moving the stop up allowed me to reduce my total value at risk. This in turn allowed me to open new positions (subjected to capital constrain which I've yet to experience) and ccapture other opportunities in the current market environment.

2. I am a bear on the fundamentals and can't help but be influenced by my belief that this rally is not the new bull market and may reverse sharply any day. While I am not picking the top by shorting, my concerns held me back from being relaxed about minor retracements.


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## skc (21 October 2009)

conankun said:


> Hey skc,
> 
> Quick question, how do you get the equity and P/L chart? Did you manually enter your daily end-of-day position($) in Ms Excel to create the graph or did it come from your broker or you have certain software to do it?
> 
> Planning to create one for myself when I got the time




Manual entry in Excel and basic charting of closed positions.


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## Albi (21 October 2009)

Hi skc
I missed this thread. It is quiet interesting. I will try to trace all my trades. 
Thanks for starting such nice thread.
I am learning everyday.
Good luck
Albi


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## Ato (21 October 2009)

skc said:


> 2. Wider stop that trails slower, say move stop to $1.1 only after that pivot low has formed. But it means foregoing the 25c profit one could have had. The paper profit is now 50c, *but the locked in profit is still only 10c.*




Hi skc

I dont understand the bolded part in the above. When you have the time, could you please spell it out for me?


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## skc (22 October 2009)

Ato said:


> Hi skc
> 
> I dont understand the bolded part in the above. When you have the time, could you please spell it out for me?




Assumption was bought at $1 and after stop moved to $1.1, the "locked in" profit is $0.1. Assuming no slippage or big gap down on open etc.

50c paper profit (assuming current share price $1.5) as it is not banked yet.


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## Ato (22 October 2009)

skc said:


> Assumption was bought at $1 and after stop moved to $1.1, the "locked in" profit is $0.1. Assuming no slippage or big gap down on open etc.
> 
> 50c paper profit (assuming current share price $1.5) as it is not banked yet.




Ah, I understand now. Thanks.


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## skc (28 October 2009)

*Re: My 99+ trades*

As a continuation of my first 99 trades... here are the results from the next batch. Each picture is quite self explanatory.


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## johnnyg (28 October 2009)

Very Impressive skc, how much risk per trade? 1%

Also notice the the average winning trade is 3 times longer then the 1st set, why so? Wider stops? Larger trends to follow? Change in strategy?


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## nunthewiser (28 October 2009)

Well done Skc ... obviously found something thats working for you .


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## skc (28 October 2009)

Some commentary

*Positives*

Must improved results overall compared to my first 99 trades

Able to improve average win / average loss to 2.52. Probably still not where I think is achievable, but in the right direction

Longer average holding days demonstrating better patience
Average loss is basically the same


*Negatives*


Still not happy with my stop placements. Stops are too lose for the volatile stocks while some are too tight for the more reasonable trending stocks

Related to above - need to develop better read on the overall market - when to tighten stops vs accept some retracements. More on this below

Commission still a drag on current position sizes

A couple more interesting points.


Top 5 winning trades represented 63% of total P/L, top 10 represented 89%

 As I have plenty of funds in my account. I actually have way more positions open at a time then a $15000 account would allow. By having more positions open I am able to capture more of this phenomenal rally. For those who are more capital constrained this results is probably not easily repeated.


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## skc (28 October 2009)

Here are 3 trades to illustrate my shortcomings in adjusting my stops to suit the stock. Blue line illustrate the stop and when they got moved.

1. NGF. A gold stock that I wanted to ride higher. But I should have known this is a more volatile stock and when that reversal candle (dark cloud cover) showed itself I should have tighten the stop right at the base of that candle. In this case, the stop was too wide for this stock. Profit foregone ~2R. 




2. SUN. A recovering bank in the midst of a finance-led rally. I should have sat back and watch it run. Instead I was too quick to lock in profits. A intraday fall shook me off and it went on to run another 6R 




3. WAN. An example where I think I trailed the stop quite well. Time will tell if that is in fact the case.




To me the lessons are.. you got to know the stock (1) and got to have a read on the market (2). Can't have them right all the time, but definitely room for improvement.


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## prawn_86 (28 October 2009)

Great stuff.

Good to see people actually willing to put their results out there, warts and all for everyone to see, as opposed to just talking about their trading without showing it.

Well done SKC, i hope your winning ways continue


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## lukeaye (28 October 2009)

Hey really good effort.

What sort of exit strategy do you use? It looks like you have applied it mechanically?

I really wish i had the time to go over every trade i do, and really evaluate properly.


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## suhm (28 October 2009)

I thought I'd put up my results as I have been re-evaluating my approach and would appreciate some comments. I found that my return from dividends not included in the graph, was more than my cap gains and that I should cut my losses or re-evaluate if they reach my new trigger point about -15% on my average sized position (-1).

The changes in the second section are mostly to do with that and defining a point to take profits before commencing the trade, most of the trades in the 2nd section are still open.

Edit: Sorry I just realised I might be hijacking your thread but it was good to see what the results of other people's positions were, so I thought I would share


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## ThingyMajiggy (28 October 2009)

Good work skc, thanks for posting it all openly too, looks like you're getting things sorted, what sort of time frame was this over? 

Keep it up


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## Mr J (29 October 2009)

Skc, is that over the last four or so months? What timeframes do you trade? The daily?


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## Ato (29 October 2009)

Wow, that's awesome skc  You've inspired me further with this thread!


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## skc (29 October 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Very Impressive skc, how much risk per trade? 1%
> 
> Also notice the the average winning trade is 3 times longer then the 1st set, why so? Wider stops? Larger trends to follow? Change in strategy?




Risk were between 1 to 1.5% per trade for the vast majority. 

The increase in holding days largely due to the fact that the number for the first set were way low. The 1st set contained many trades where I took profit, took a 1 day punt etc which reduces the average significantly. The overall large, persistent trend in the market also helped.



lukeaye said:


> What sort of exit strategy do you use? It looks like you have applied it mechanically?




Nothing mechanical at all. All exits are through trailing stops or scratched trades (i.e. pattern that didn't want to go on with it). Stops are trailed in a discretionary manner... e.g. 6 day look back, below most recent pivot low, or "shove it up the back side".

It may look mechanical because how the charts looked. But that's just me putting signals on the chart manually.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Good work skc, thanks for posting it all openly too, looks like you're getting things sorted, what sort of time frame was this over?






Mr J said:


> Skc, is that over the last four or so months? What timeframes do you trade? The daily?




Trades are between June to Oct.

I don't trade with any particular timeframe in mind. That is, I enter a trade without any fixed intention of how long I will hold it. I use daily charts, but sometimes I move stops during the day depending on market action.

And thanks all others for the kind words.


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## nomore4s (30 October 2009)

Great results skc, keep up the good work.



skc said:


> As I have plenty of funds in my account. I actually have way more positions open at a time then a $15000 account would allow. By having more positions open I am able to capture more of this phenomenal rally. For those who are more capital constrained this results is probably not easily repeated.




Can you just clarify this comment for me?
Does it mean you have more then $15,000 in your trading account?

Thanks.


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## marknz88 (30 October 2009)

I think SKC trades via CFD's rather than pure stocks hence his 15,000 on margin allows more open positions?


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## skc (30 October 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Great results skc, keep up the good work.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yes. I had way more than $15000 in the account at a time. The peak "funds employed" was probably around $55K. The average was probably $30-35K so can be done on a margin account if one so desired. I didn't use CFDs.

On one hand, you could probably argue that the P/L of $13K was on the $30-35K instead, which makes the return % of ~40% far less impressive but more reasonable.

On the other hand, as I use $15K as my risk management figure, I would say the RAROC (risk adjusted return on capital) is still 78%.  

I also keep a close eye on total amount at risk (i.e. entry price - current stop loss price) at any one time. And I usually manage that to be ~10% of the risk capital. I think this was a good comfort check, that even if I was holding $50K of stock and all my stops get hit at once, I am only down $1-2K in terms of capital (but also a lot of open profit). 

The downside was that this had some impact on the way I move stops up - I perhaps moved stops up faster than they warranted just so that this total amount at risk looks smaller.


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## nomore4s (30 October 2009)

Thanks skc.



skc said:


> On the other hand, as I use $15K as my risk management figure




This answers my next question.



> The downside was that this had some impact on the way I move stops up - I perhaps moved stops up faster than they warranted just so that this total amount at risk looks smaller.




From my experience you will never be entirely happy with your exits. You are always going to feel you are getting out too late or too early, having a re-entry plan for stocks that stop you out and then continue on might be a good idea.

That SUN chart is a good example of where a re-entry plan might work. Stopped out on that long tail like that indicates there might be more left in the trend.


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## Albi (30 October 2009)

skc said:


> Yes. I had way more than $15000 in the account at a time. The peak "funds employed" was probably around $55K. The average was probably $30-35K so can be done on a margin account if one so desired. I didn't use CFDs.
> 
> On one hand, you could probably argue that the P/L of $13K was on the $30-35K instead, which makes the return % of ~40% far less impressive but more reasonable.
> 
> ...




Hi SKC
I also have an account in margin lending and there I can borrow arroung the 40% of my total portfolio. It keeps changing as as I buy or sell stocks, depnds on value of stocks also. My credit limit is also quiet good. But I am always afraid of using  that amount because of risk.
My question is can I buy share and sell on the same day from that amount?For example I am holding few stocks and my margin lending shows that I can borrow upto $10,000. If I buy and then sell the shares from this amount on the same day, will it be naked selling or i can use this amount. I am using comsec.
Thanks in advance. 
Albi


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## skc (30 October 2009)

Albi said:


> Hi SKC
> I also have an account in margin lending and there I can borrow arroung the 40% of my total portfolio. It keeps changing as as I buy or sell stocks, depnds on value of stocks also. My credit limit is also quiet good. But I am always afraid of using  that amount because of risk.
> My question is can I buy share and sell on the same day from that amount?For example I am holding few stocks and my margin lending shows that I can borrow upto $10,000. If I buy and then sell the shares from this amount on the same day, will it be naked selling or i can use this amount. I am using comsec.
> Thanks in advance.
> Albi




What makes you think I'd know? I last used comsec 10 years ago and not with margin.

But before you check with your margin provider, make sure you are comfortable with the risk first!


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## Mr J (31 October 2009)

One thought I have is that it seems you often had quite a few correlated trades open.


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## skc (31 October 2009)

Mr J said:


> One thought I have is that it seems you often had quite a few correlated trades open.




What do you mean by correlated? I suppose all stocks are correlated to the wider market for starters...

I do run a Excel pivot table of my open positions and look at position market value and risk by sector. I don't have any hard rules but I keep an eye on any sector concentration. 

I also exercise some control on the positions I open. E.g. I may have MGX, MMX and AGO on my pending orders. If one of them is activated I would probably cancel the other two as they are all second tier iron ore stocks. 

About a month ago I longed both LGL and NCM plus a junior gold in NGF... in that case I spread total 2.5% risk over the 3 stocks so I am not overly exposed to gold. 

In order to do this I do spend a little bit of time finding out what a company does at a high level...


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## Mr J (1 November 2009)

skc said:


> What do you mean by correlated? I suppose all stocks are correlated to the wider market for starters...




I don't know how you manage your positions, but it was just a thought, since correlation can mean risk is far greater than realised. A lot of people found that out in '08 when their 'diversified' portfolios fell apart .


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## nomore4s (1 November 2009)

Mr J said:


> One thought I have is that it seems you often had quite a few correlated trades open.




Mr J while I can understand where you are coming from with this due to skc's results but you must keep in mind anything in this market that started to trend pretty much kept trending.



Mr J said:


> I don't know how you manage your positions, but it was just a thought, since correlation can mean risk is far greater than realised. A lot of people found that out in '08 when their 'diversified' portfolios fell apart .




For a trader like skc I actually think being overexposed to a sector or type of stock is a good thing - if done correctly. With an average holding time of 24 days being diversified isn't such an issue.

I have found with my trading if I end up with a large exposure to a sector or group of similar stocks it is because that sector is hot and trending strongly - think of the banks since about May, being overexposed would have brought great rewards.

The way I manage my risk is not to enter all the trades at the same time but to use different stages in the trend to enter that way all my stops are not at full risk. It is the risk of all your stops getting hit at once that increases when trading the same sector, so if you can manage this by staggering your entries you can increase the potential rewards but still control the risks.


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## Mr J (1 November 2009)

> Mr J while I can understand where you are coming from with this due to skc's results but you must keep in mind anything in this market that started to trend pretty much kept trending.




I know. My problem with it is that correlation is a doubled-edged sword. It's great when the market is trending, but if we're caught on the wrong side of a strong move, it could turn all of those small 2% positions into something more like a wager for 20% of our capital. I know this would be a rare event, but I'm still wary of it. I suppose the idea is to make enough during the good times to be able to take a loss like that, or if possible, not be in a position to face the loss in the first place?


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## skc (2 November 2009)

Mr J said:


> I don't know how you manage your positions, but it was just a thought, since correlation can mean risk is far greater than realised. A lot of people found that out in '08 when their 'diversified' portfolios fell apart .




The total risk was always in check... And the total risk actually assumed no diversification at all, as all stops in all sector gets hit at the same time. So that should be as bad as they can be (minus slippage and gaps). 

People's diversified portfolio fell apart because they were exposed to overall market risk... diversification is not helpful on that front.



Mr J said:


> I know. My problem with it is that correlation is a doubled-edged sword. It's great when the market is trending, but if we're caught on the wrong side of a strong move, it could turn all of those small 2% positions into something more like a wager for 20% of our capital. I know this would be a rare event, but I'm still wary of it. I suppose the idea is to make enough during the good times to be able to take a loss like that, or if possible, not be in a position to face the loss in the first place?




You are ignoring the fact that most positions and stops are staggered. 10 positions at 2% per trade doesn't equal 20% risk if 5 stops are at 1R profit and 3 stops are at breakeven...


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## Mr J (2 November 2009)

I'm not ignoring it, which is why I said I don't know how you manage your trades . I'm not being critical.


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